Seasonal differences in extinction and colonization drive occupancy dynamics of an imperilled amphibian.

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Lea A Randall

Full Text Available A detailed understanding of the population dynamics of many amphibian species is lacking despite concerns about declining amphibian biodiversity and abundance. This paper explores temporal patterns of occupancy and underlying extinction and colonization dynamics in a regionally imperiled amphibian species, the Northern leopard frog (Lithobates pipiens in Alberta. Our study contributes to elucidating regional occupancy dynamics at northern latitudes, where climate extremes likely have a profound effect on seasonal occupancy. The primary advantage of our study is its wide geographic scale (60,000 km2 and the use of repeat visual surveys each spring and summer from 2009-2013. We find that occupancy varied more dramatically between seasons than years, with low spring and higher summer occupancy. Between spring and summer, colonization was high and extinction low; inversely, colonization was low and extinction high over the winter. The dynamics of extinction and colonization are complex, making conservation management challenging. Our results reveal that Northern leopard frog occupancy was constant over the last five years and thus there is no evidence of decline or recovery within our study area. Changes to equilibrium occupancy are most sensitive to increasing colonization in the spring or declining extinction in the summer. Therefore, conservation and management efforts should target actions that are likely to increase spring colonization; this could be achieved through translocations or improving the quality or access to breeding habitat. Because summer occupancy is already high, it may be difficult to improve further. Nevertheless, summer extinction could be reduced by predator control, increasing water quality or hydroperiod of wetlands, or increasing the quality or quantity of summer habitat.

Seasonal differences in extinction and colonization drive occupancy dynamics of an imperilled amphibian.

Science.gov (United States)

Randall, Lea A; Smith, Des H V; Jones, Breana L; Prescott, David R C; Moehrenschlager, Axel

2015-01-01

A detailed understanding of the population dynamics of many amphibian species is lacking despite concerns about declining amphibian biodiversity and abundance. This paper explores temporal patterns of occupancy and underlying extinction and colonization dynamics in a regionally imperiled amphibian species, the Northern leopard frog (Lithobates pipiens) in Alberta. Our study contributes to elucidating regional occupancy dynamics at northern latitudes, where climate extremes likely have a profound effect on seasonal occupancy. The primary advantage of our study is its wide geographic scale (60,000 km2) and the use of repeat visual surveys each spring and summer from 2009-2013. We find that occupancy varied more dramatically between seasons than years, with low spring and higher summer occupancy. Between spring and summer, colonization was high and extinction low; inversely, colonization was low and extinction high over the winter. The dynamics of extinction and colonization are complex, making conservation management challenging. Our results reveal that Northern leopard frog occupancy was constant over the last five years and thus there is no evidence of decline or recovery within our study area. Changes to equilibrium occupancy are most sensitive to increasing colonization in the spring or declining extinction in the summer. Therefore, conservation and management efforts should target actions that are likely to increase spring colonization; this could be achieved through translocations or improving the quality or access to breeding habitat. Because summer occupancy is already high, it may be difficult to improve further. Nevertheless, summer extinction could be reduced by predator control, increasing water quality or hydroperiod of wetlands, or increasing the quality or quantity of summer habitat.

Sediment dynamics in a large shallow lake characterized by seasonal flood pulse in Southeast Asia.

Science.gov (United States)

Siev, Sokly; Yang, Heejun; Sok, Ty; Uk, Sovannara; Song, Layheang; Kodikara, Dilini; Oeurng, Chantha; Hul, Seingheng; Yoshimura, Chihiro

2018-08-01

Most of studies on sediment dynamics in stable shallow lakes focused on the resuspension process as it is the dominant process. However, understanding of sediment dynamics in a shallow lake influenced by flood pulse is unclear. We tested a hypothesis that floodplain vegetation plays as a significant role in lessening the intensity of resuspension process in a shallow lake characterized by the flood pulse system. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate sediment dynamics in this type of shallow lake. The target was Tonle Sap Lake (TSL), which is a large shallow lake influenced by a flood pulse system of Mekong River located in Southeast Asia. An extensive and seasonal sampling survey was conducted to measure total suspended solid (TSS) concentrations, sedimentation and resuspension rates in TSL and its 4 floodplain areas. The study revealed that sedimentation process was dominant (TSS ranged: 3-126mgL -1 ) in the high water period (September-December) while resuspension process was dominant (TSS ranged: 4-652mgL -1 ) only in the low water period (March-June). In addition, floodplain vegetation reduced the resuspension of sediment (up to 26.3%) in water. The implication of the study showed that resuspension is a seasonally dominant process in shallow lake influenced by the flood pulse system at least for the case of TSL. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Population dynamic of the swallowtail butterfly, Papilio polytes (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae in dry and wet seasons

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

SUWARNO

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Suwarno (2010 Population dynamic of the swallowtail butterfly, Papilio polytes (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae in dry and wet seasons. Biodiversitas 11: 19-23. The population dynamic of Papilio polytes L. (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae in dry and wet seasons was investigated in the citrus orchard in Tasek Gelugor, Pulau Pinang, Malaysia. Population of immature stages of P. polytes was observed alternate day from January to March 2006 (dry season, DS, from April to July 2006 (secondary wet season, SWS, and from October to December 2006 (primary wet season, PWS. The population dynamics of the immature stages of P. polytes varied between seasons. The immature stages of P. polytes are more abundance and significantly different in the PWS than those of the DS and the SWS. The larval densities in all seasons decreased with progressive development of the instar stages. Predators and parasitoids are the main factor in regulating the population abundance of immature stages of P. polytes. There were positive correlations between the abundance of immature stages of P. polytes and their natural enemies abundance in each season. Ooencyrtus papilioni Ashmead (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae is the most egg parasitoid. Oxyopes quadrifasciatus L. Koch. and O. elegans L. Koch. (Araneae: Oxyopidae are the main predators in the young larvae, meanwhile Sycanus dichotomus Stal. (Heteroptera: Reduviidae, Calotes versicolor Fitzinger (Squamata: Agamidae, birds and praying mantis attacked the older larvae.

Seasonal dynamics of snail populations in coastal Kenya: Model calibration and snail control

Science.gov (United States)

Gurarie, D.; King, C. H.; Yoon, N.; Wang, X.; Alsallaq, R.

2017-10-01

A proper snail population model is important for accurately predicting Schistosoma transmission. Field data shows that the overall snail population and that of shedding snails have a strong pattern of seasonal variation. Because human hosts are infected by the cercariae released from shedding snails, the abundance of the snail population sets ultimate limits on human infection. For developing a predictive dynamic model of schistosome infection and control strategies we need realistic snail population dynamics. Here we propose two such models based on underlying environmental factors and snail population biology. The models consist of two-stage (young-adult) populations with resource-dependent reproduction, survival, maturation. The key input in the system is seasonal rainfall which creates snail habitats and resources (small vegetation). The models were tested, calibrated and validated using dataset collected in Msambweni (coastal Kenya). Seasonal rainfall in Msambweni is highly variable with intermittent wet - dry seasons. Typical snail patterns follow precipitation peaks with 2-4-month time-lag. Our models are able to reproduce such seasonal variability over extended period of time (3-year study). We applied them to explore the optimal seasonal timing for implementing snail control.

seasonal population dynamics of rodents of mount chilalo, arsi ...

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ABSTRACT: A study on seasonal population dynamics of rodents was carried out on Mount. Chilalo from .... vegetation growth, availability of food and water, and ... vegetation (3,300–4,200 masl) (Alemayehu. Mengistu, 1975; APEDO and ABRDP, 2004). The mountain is one of the Afrotropical biodiversity hotspots areas.

Impact of Seasonal Variability in Water, Plant and Soil Nutrient Dynamics in Agroecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Pelak, N. F., III; Revelli, R.; Porporato, A. M.

2017-12-01

Agroecosystems cover a significant fraction of the Earth's surface, making their water and nutrient cycles a major component of global cycles across spatial and temporal scales. Most agroecosystems experience seasonality via variations in precipitation, temperature, and radiation, in addition to human activities which also occur seasonally, such as fertilization, irrigation, and harvesting. These seasonal drivers interact with the system in complex ways which are often poorly characterized. Crop models, which are widely used for research, decision support, and prediction of crop yields, are among the best tools available to analyze these systems. Though normally constructed as a set of dynamical equations forced by hydroclimatic variability, they are not often analyzed using dynamical systems theory and methods from stochastic ecohydrology. With the goal of developing this viewpoint and thus elucidating the roles of key feedbacks and forcings on system stability and on optimal fertilization and irrigation strategies, we develop a minimal dynamical system which contains the key components of a crop model, coupled to a carbon and nitrogen cycling model, driven by seasonal fluctuations in water and nutrient availability, temperature, and radiation. External drivers include seasonally varying climatic conditions and random rainfall forcing, irrigation and fertilization as well as harvesting. The model is used to analyze the magnitudes and interactions of the effects of seasonality on carbon and nutrient cycles, crop productivity, nutrient export of agroecosystems, and optimal management strategies with reference to productivity, sustainability and profitability. The impact of likely future climate scenarios on these systems is also discussed.

Seasonal temperature variation influences climate suitability for dengue, chikungunya, and Zika transmission.

Science.gov (United States)

Huber, John H; Childs, Marissa L; Caldwell, Jamie M; Mordecai, Erin A

2018-05-01

Dengue, chikungunya, and Zika virus epidemics transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes have recently (re)emerged and spread throughout the Americas, Southeast Asia, the Pacific Islands, and elsewhere. Understanding how environmental conditions affect epidemic dynamics is critical for predicting and responding to the geographic and seasonal spread of disease. Specifically, we lack a mechanistic understanding of how seasonal variation in temperature affects epidemic magnitude and duration. Here, we develop a dynamic disease transmission model for dengue virus and Aedes aegypti mosquitoes that integrates mechanistic, empirically parameterized, and independently validated mosquito and virus trait thermal responses under seasonally varying temperatures. We examine the influence of seasonal temperature mean, variation, and temperature at the start of the epidemic on disease dynamics. We find that at both constant and seasonally varying temperatures, warmer temperatures at the start of epidemics promote more rapid epidemics due to faster burnout of the susceptible population. By contrast, intermediate temperatures (24-25°C) at epidemic onset produced the largest epidemics in both constant and seasonally varying temperature regimes. When seasonal temperature variation was low, 25-35°C annual average temperatures produced the largest epidemics, but this range shifted to cooler temperatures as seasonal temperature variation increased (analogous to previous results for diurnal temperature variation). Tropical and sub-tropical cities such as Rio de Janeiro, Fortaleza, and Salvador, Brazil; Cali, Cartagena, and Barranquilla, Colombia; Delhi, India; Guangzhou, China; and Manila, Philippines have mean annual temperatures and seasonal temperature ranges that produced the largest epidemics. However, more temperate cities like Shanghai, China had high epidemic suitability because large seasonal variation offset moderate annual average temperatures. By accounting for seasonal

Seasonal temperature variation influences climate suitability for dengue, chikungunya, and Zika transmission.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

John H Huber

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Dengue, chikungunya, and Zika virus epidemics transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes have recently (reemerged and spread throughout the Americas, Southeast Asia, the Pacific Islands, and elsewhere. Understanding how environmental conditions affect epidemic dynamics is critical for predicting and responding to the geographic and seasonal spread of disease. Specifically, we lack a mechanistic understanding of how seasonal variation in temperature affects epidemic magnitude and duration. Here, we develop a dynamic disease transmission model for dengue virus and Aedes aegypti mosquitoes that integrates mechanistic, empirically parameterized, and independently validated mosquito and virus trait thermal responses under seasonally varying temperatures. We examine the influence of seasonal temperature mean, variation, and temperature at the start of the epidemic on disease dynamics. We find that at both constant and seasonally varying temperatures, warmer temperatures at the start of epidemics promote more rapid epidemics due to faster burnout of the susceptible population. By contrast, intermediate temperatures (24-25°C at epidemic onset produced the largest epidemics in both constant and seasonally varying temperature regimes. When seasonal temperature variation was low, 25-35°C annual average temperatures produced the largest epidemics, but this range shifted to cooler temperatures as seasonal temperature variation increased (analogous to previous results for diurnal temperature variation. Tropical and sub-tropical cities such as Rio de Janeiro, Fortaleza, and Salvador, Brazil; Cali, Cartagena, and Barranquilla, Colombia; Delhi, India; Guangzhou, China; and Manila, Philippines have mean annual temperatures and seasonal temperature ranges that produced the largest epidemics. However, more temperate cities like Shanghai, China had high epidemic suitability because large seasonal variation offset moderate annual average temperatures. By accounting

Seasonal dynamics of Co60 accumulation by Elodea canadensis Rich

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bochenin, V.F.; Chebotina, M.Ya.

1975-01-01

The seasonal dynamics of Co 60 accumulation by one of the most widely distributed fresh-water plants, elodea (Elodea canadensis Rich), were studied. Accumulation was shown to vary with the season. A very low coefficient of accumulation (500-700 units) was typical for the summer period (June to August). It increased in the fall, reached its highest values (3500-4000) in mid-winter (January), and dropped sharply in the spring. Radioisotope concentrations in the plant varied similarly. The cumulative capacity of plants for Co 60 may vary by a factor of 6 to 7 during the year. It is suggested that the seasonal changes in Co 60 accumulation may be caused by both differences in the physiological state of the plants at different times of the year, and by seasonal variations in the hydrochemical regime of the water reservoir. Experiments were done to clarify which of these mechanisms is the determining factor. (V.A.P.)

Seasonality and comparative dynamics of six childhood infections in pre-vaccination Copenhagen

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Metcalf, C. Jessica E.; Bjørnstad, Ottar N.; Grenfell, Bryan T.

2009-01-01

Seasonal variation in infection transmission is a key determinant of epidemic dynamics of acute infections. For measles, the best-understood strongly immunizing directly transmitted childhood infection, the perception is that term-time forcing is the main driver of seasonality in developed...... of seasonality and basic reproductive rate of infections that should result from term-time forcing are also not upheld. We conclude that where yearly trajectories of susceptible numbers are perturbed, e.g. via waning of immunity, seasonality is unlikely to be entirely driven by term-time forcing. For the three...... bacterial infections, pertussis, scarlet fever and diphtheria, there is additionally a strong increase in transmission during the late summer before the end of school vacations....

Seasonal dynamics of fish assemblage in a pond canal

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Musil, J.; Adámek, Zdeněk; Baranyi, Ch.

2007-01-01

Roč. 15, č. 3-4 (2007), s. 217-226 ISSN 0967-6120. [New Challenges in Pond Aquaculture. České Budějovice, 26.04.2005-28.04.2005] Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60930519 Keywords : fish assemblage * pond canal * species richness * seasonal dynamics * alien species Subject RIV: GL - Fishing Impact factor: 0.828, year: 2007

Meteorological factors and pollen season dynamics of selected herbaceous plants in Szczecin, 2004-2008

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Małgorzata Puc

2012-12-01

Full Text Available The pollen of mugwort, plantain, sorrel, nettle and pigweed is an important airborne allergen source worldwide. The occurrence of pollen grains in the air is a seasonal phenomenon and estimation of seasonal variability in the pollen count permits evaluation of the threat posed by allergens over a given area. The aim of the study was to analyse the dynamics of Artemisia, Plantago, Rumex, Urticaceae and Chenopodiaceae pollen season in Szczecin (western Poland in 2004-2008 and to establish a relationship between the meteorological parameters versus the pollen count of the taxa studied. Measurements were performed by the Hirst volumetric trap (model Lanzoni VPPS 2000. Consecutive phases during the pollen season were defined for each taxon (1, 5, 25, 50, 75, 95, 99% of annual total and duration of the season was determined using the 98% method. On the basis of this analysis, temporary differences in the dynamics of the seasons were most evident for Artemisia. Correlation analysis with weather parameters demonstrated that the maximum wind speed, mean and maximum air temperature, relative humidity and dew point are the main factors influencing the average daily pollen concentrations in the atmosphere.

Linking small-scale circulation dynamics with large-scale seasonal production (phytoplankton) in the Southern Ocean

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Nicholson, S

2012-10-01

Full Text Available Understanding the seasonal and intra-seasonal (daily to weekly) changes of the upper ocean and the impact on the primary production in the Southern Ocean is key to better understanding the sensitivities of the global carbon cycle....

Constraining Parameter Uncertainty in Simulations of Water and Heat Dynamics in Seasonally Frozen Soil Using Limited Observed Data

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Mousong Wu

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Water and energy processes in frozen soils are important for better understanding hydrologic processes and water resources management in cold regions. To investigate the water and energy balance in seasonally frozen soils, CoupModel combined with the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE method was used. Simulation work on water and heat processes in frozen soil in northern China during the 2012/2013 winter was conducted. Ensemble simulations through the Monte Carlo sampling method were generated for uncertainty analysis. Behavioral simulations were selected based on combinations of multiple model performance index criteria with respect to simulated soil water and temperature at four depths (5 cm, 15 cm, 25 cm, and 35 cm. Posterior distributions for parameters related to soil hydraulic, radiation processes, and heat transport indicated that uncertainties in both input and model structures could influence model performance in modeling water and heat processes in seasonally frozen soils. Seasonal courses in water and energy partitioning were obvious during the winter. Within the day-cycle, soil evaporation/condensation and energy distributions were well captured and clarified as an important phenomenon in the dynamics of the energy balance system. The combination of the CoupModel simulations with the uncertainty-based calibration method provides a way of understanding the seasonal courses of hydrology and energy processes in cold regions with limited data. Additional measurements may be used to further reduce the uncertainty of regulating factors during the different stages of freezing–thawing.

Comparative dynamics, seasonality in transmission, and predictability of childhood infections in Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Mahmud, A. S.; Metcalf, C. J. E.; Grenfell, B. T.

2018-01-01

The seasonality and periodicity of infections, and the mechanisms underlying observed dynamics, can have implications for control efforts. This is particularly true for acute childhood infections. Among these, the dynamics of measles is the best understood and has been extensively studied, most notably in the UK prior to the start of vaccination. Less is known about the dynamics of other childhood diseases, particularly outside Europe and the US. In this paper, we leverage a unique dataset to examine the epidemiology of six childhood infections - measles, mumps, rubella, varicella, scarlet fever and pertussis - across 32 states in Mexico from 1985 to 2007. This dataset provides us with a spatiotemporal probe into the dynamics of six common childhood infections, and allows us to compare them in the same setting over the same time period. We examine three key epidemiological characteristics of these infections – the age profile of infections, spatiotemporal dynamics, and seasonality in transmission - and compare with predictions from existing theory and past findings. Our analysis reveals interesting epidemiological differences between the six pathogens, and variations across space. We find signatures of term time forcing (reduced transmission during the summer) for measles, mumps, rubella, varicella, and scarlet fever; for pertussis, a lack of term time forcing could not be rejected. PMID:27873563

Using Remotely Sensed Fluorescence and Soil Moisture to Better Understand the Seasonal Cycle of Tropical Grasslands

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Dakota Carlysle

Seasonal grasslands account for a large area of Earth's land cover. Annual and seasonal changes in these grasslands have profound impacts on Earth's carbon, energy, and water cycles. In tropical grasslands, growth is commonly water-limited and the landscape oscillates between highly productive and unproductive. As the monsoon begins, soils moisten providing dry grasses the water necessary to photosynthesize. However, along with the rain come clouds that obscure satellite products that are commonly used to study productivity in these areas. To navigate this issue, we used solar induced fluorescence (SIF) products from OCO-2 along with soil moisture products from the Soil Moisture Active Passive satellite (SMAP) to "see through" the clouds to monitor grassland productivity. To get a broader understanding of the vegetation dynamics, we used the Simple Biosphere Model (SiB4) to simulate the seasonal cycles of vegetation. In conjunction with SiB4, the remotely sensed SIF and soil moisture observations were utilized to paint a clearer picture of seasonal productivity in tropical grasslands. The remotely sensed data is not available for every place at one time or at every time for one place. Thus, the study was focused on a large area from 15° E to 35° W and from 8°S to 20°N in the African Sahel. Instead of studying productivity relative to time, we studied it relative to soil moisture. Through this investigation we found soil moisture thresholds for the emergence of grassland growth, near linear grassland growth, and maturity of grassland growth. We also found that SiB4 overestimates SIF by about a factor of two for nearly every value of soil moisture. On the whole, SiB4 does a surprisingly good job of predicting the response of seasonal growth in tropical grasslands to soil moisture. Future work will continue to integrate remotely sensed SIF & soil moisture with SiB4 to add to our growing knowledge of carbon, water, and energy cycling in tropical grasslands.

Understanding the dynamics of parent involvement in schooling ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Understanding the dynamics of parent involvement in schooling within the poverty context. ... South African Journal of Education ... understand the realities and dynamics facing parents when attempting to be involved in their child\\'s schooling.

Seasonal diversity and dynamics of haptophytes in the Skagerrak, Norway, explored by high-throughput sequencing

Science.gov (United States)

Egge, Elianne Sirnæs; Johannessen, Torill Vik; Andersen, Tom; Eikrem, Wenche; Bittner, Lucie; Larsen, Aud; Sandaa, Ruth-Anne; Edvardsen, Bente

2015-01-01

Microalgae in the division Haptophyta play key roles in the marine ecosystem and in global biogeochemical processes. Despite their ecological importance, knowledge on seasonal dynamics, community composition and abundance at the species level is limited due to their small cell size and few morphological features visible under the light microscope. Here, we present unique data on haptophyte seasonal diversity and dynamics from two annual cycles, with the taxonomic resolution and sampling depth obtained with high-throughput sequencing. From outer Oslofjorden, S Norway, nano- and picoplanktonic samples were collected monthly for 2 years, and the haptophytes targeted by amplification of RNA/cDNA with Haptophyta-specific 18S rDNA V4 primers. We obtained 156 operational taxonomic units (OTUs), from c. 400.000 454 pyrosequencing reads, after rigorous bioinformatic filtering and clustering at 99.5%. Most OTUs represented uncultured and/or not yet 18S rDNA-sequenced species. Haptophyte OTU richness and community composition exhibited high temporal variation and significant yearly periodicity. Richness was highest in September–October (autumn) and lowest in April–May (spring). Some taxa were detected all year, such as Chrysochromulina simplex, Emiliania huxleyi and Phaeocystis cordata, whereas most calcifying coccolithophores only appeared from summer to early winter. We also revealed the seasonal dynamics of OTUs representing putative novel classes (clades HAP-3–5) or orders (clades D, E, F). Season, light and temperature accounted for 29% of the variation in OTU composition. Residual variation may be related to biotic factors, such as competition and viral infection. This study provides new, in-depth knowledge on seasonal diversity and dynamics of haptophytes in North Atlantic coastal waters. PMID:25893259

Post-1980 shifts in the sensitivity of boreal tree growth to North Atlantic Ocean dynamics and seasonal climate. Tree growth responses to North Atlantic Ocean dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Ols, Clémentine; Trouet, Valerie; Girardin, Martin P.; Hofgaard, Annika; Bergeron, Yves; Drobyshev, Igor

2018-06-01

The mid-20th century changes in North Atlantic Ocean dynamics, e.g. slow-down of the Atlantic meridional overturning thermohaline circulation (AMOC), have been considered as early signs of tipping points in the Earth climate system. We hypothesized that these changes have significantly altered boreal forest growth dynamics in northeastern North America (NA) and northern Europe (NE), two areas geographically adjacent to the North Atlantic Ocean. To test our hypothesis, we investigated tree growth responses to seasonal large-scale oceanic and atmospheric indices (the AMOC, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Arctic Oscillation (AO)) and climate (temperature and precipitation) from 1950 onwards, both at the regional and local levels. We developed a network of 6876 black spruce (NA) and 14437 Norway spruce (NE) tree-ring width series, extracted from forest inventory databases. Analyses revealed post-1980 shifts from insignificant to significant tree growth responses to summer oceanic and atmospheric dynamics both in NA (negative responses to NAO and AO indices) and NE (positive response to NAO and AMOC indices). The strength and sign of these responses varied, however, through space with stronger responses in western and central boreal Quebec and in central and northern boreal Sweden, and across scales with stronger responses at the regional level than at the local level. Emerging post-1980 associations with North Atlantic Ocean dynamics synchronized with stronger tree growth responses to local seasonal climate, particularly to winter temperatures. Our results suggest that ongoing and future anomalies in oceanic and atmospheric dynamics may impact forest growth and carbon sequestration to a greater extent than previously thought. Cross-scale differences in responses to North Atlantic Ocean dynamics highlight complex interplays in the effects of local climate and ocean-atmosphere dynamics on tree growth processes and advocate for the use of different spatial scales in

Chemical Control for Host-Parasitoid Model within the Parasitism Season and Its Complex Dynamics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tao Wang

2016-01-01

Full Text Available In the present paper, we develop a host-parasitoid model with Holling type II functional response function and chemical control, which can be applied at any time of each parasitism season or pest generation, and focus on addressing the importance of the timing of application pesticide during the parasitism season or pest generation in successful pest control. Firstly, the existence and stability of both the host and parasitoid populations extinction equilibrium and parasitoid-free equilibrium have been investigated. Secondly, the effects of key parameters on the threshold conditions have been discussed in more detail, which shows the importance of pesticide application times on the pest control. Thirdly, the complex dynamics including multiple attractors coexistence, chaotic behavior, and initial sensitivity have been studied by using numerical bifurcation analyses. Finally, the uncertainty and sensitivity of all the parameters on the solutions of both the host and parasitoid populations are investigated, which can help us to determine the key parameters in designing the pest control strategy. The present research can help us to further understand the importance of timings of pesticide application in the pest control and to improve the classical chemical control and to make management decisions.

Seasonal dynamics and vertical distribution of plant-feeding nematode communities in grasslands

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Verschoor, B.C.; Goede, de R.G.M.; Hoop, de J.W.; Vries, de F.W.

2001-01-01

The vertical distribution and seasonal dynamics of plant- and fungal-feeding nematode taxa in permanent grasslands were investigated. Dolichodoridae, Paratylenchus, Pratylenchus, Tylenchidae and Aphelenchoides dominated the upper 10 cm soil and their numbers strongly decreased with depth. The

Individual and collective stock dynamics: intra-day seasonalities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Allez, Romain; Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe

2011-01-01

We establish several new stylized facts concerning the intra-day seasonalities of stock dynamics. Beyond the well-known U-shaped pattern of the volatility, we find that the average correlation between stocks increases throughout the day, leading to a smaller relative dispersion between stocks. Somewhat paradoxically, the kurtosis (a measure of volatility surprises) reaches a minimum at the open of the market, when the volatility is at its peak. We confirm that the dispersion kurtosis is a markedly decreasing function of the index return. This means that during large market swings, the idiosyncratic component of the stock dynamics becomes sub-dominant. In a nutshell, the early hours of trading are dominated by idiosyncratic or sector-specific effects with little surprises, whereas the influence of the market factor increases throughout the day, and surprises become more frequent.

Seasonal migrations, body temperature fluctuations, and infection dynamics in adult amphibians

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David R. Daversa

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Risks of parasitism vary over time, with infection prevalence often fluctuating with seasonal changes in the annual cycle. Identifying the biological mechanisms underlying seasonality in infection can enable better prediction and prevention of future infection peaks. Obtaining longitudinal data on individual infections and traits across seasons throughout the annual cycle is perhaps the most effective means of achieving this aim, yet few studies have obtained such information for wildlife. Here, we tracked spiny common toads (Bufo spinosus within and across annual cycles to assess seasonal variation in movement, body temperatures and infection from the fungal parasite, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd. Across annual cycles, toads did not consistently sustain infections but instead gained and lost infections from year to year. Radio-tracking showed that infected toads lose infections during post-breeding migrations, and no toads contracted infection following migration, which may be one explanation for the inter-annual variability in Bd infections. We also found pronounced seasonal variation in toad body temperatures. Body temperatures approached 0 °C during winter hibernation but remained largely within the thermal tolerance range of Bd. These findings provide direct documentation of migratory recovery (i.e., loss of infection during migration and escape in a wild population. The body temperature reductions that we observed during hibernation warrant further consideration into the role that this period plays in seasonal Bd dynamics.

Effects of Forest Gaps on Litter Lignin and Cellulose Dynamics Vary Seasonally in an Alpine Forest

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Han Li

2016-01-01

Full Text Available To understand how forest gaps and the associated canopy control litter lignin and cellulose dynamics by redistributing the winter snow coverage and hydrothermal conditions in the growing season, a field litterbag trial was conducted in the alpine Minjiang fir (Abies faxoniana Rehder and E.H. Wilson forest in a transitional area located in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River and the eastern Tibetan Plateau. Over the first year of litter decomposition, the litter exhibited absolute cellulose loss and absolute lignin accumulation except for the red birch litter. The changes in litter cellulose and lignin were significantly affected by the interactions among gap position, period and species. Litter cellulose exhibited a greater loss in the winter with the highest daily loss rate observed during the snow cover period. Both cellulose and lignin exhibited greater changes under the deep snow cover at the gap center in the winter, but the opposite pattern occurred under the closed canopy in the growing season. The results suggest that decreased snowpack seasonality due to winter warming may limit litter cellulose and lignin degradation in alpine forest ecosystems, which could further inhibit litter decomposition. As a result, the ongoing winter warming and gap vanishing would slow soil carbon sequestration from foliar litter in cold biomes.

Seasonal prediction of the Leeuwin Current using the POAMA dynamical seasonal forecast model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hendon, Harry H.; Wang, Guomin [Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Bureau of Meteorology, PO Box 1289, Melbourne (Australia)

2010-06-15

The potential for predicting interannual variations of the Leeuwin Current along the west coast of Australia is addressed. The Leeuwin Current flows poleward against the prevailing winds and transports warm-fresh tropical water southward along the coast, which has a great impact on local climate and ecosystems. Variations of the current are tightly tied to El Nino/La Nina (weak during El Nino and strong during La Nina). Skilful seasonal prediction of the Leeuwin Current to 9-month lead time is achieved by empirical downscaling of dynamical coupled model forecasts of El Nino and the associated upper ocean heat content anomalies off the north west coast of Australia from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA) seasonal forecast system. Prediction of the Leeuwin Current is possible because the heat content fluctuations off the north west coast are the primary driver of interannual annual variations of the current and these heat content variations are tightly tied to the occurrence of El Nino/La Nina. POAMA can skilfully predict both the occurrence of El Nino/La Nina and the subsequent transmission of the heat content anomalies from the Pacific onto the north west coast. (orig.)

Seasonal diversity and dynamics of haptophytes in the Skagerrak, Norway, explored by high-throughput sequencing.

Science.gov (United States)

Egge, Elianne Sirnaes; Johannessen, Torill Vik; Andersen, Tom; Eikrem, Wenche; Bittner, Lucie; Larsen, Aud; Sandaa, Ruth-Anne; Edvardsen, Bente

2015-06-01

Microalgae in the division Haptophyta play key roles in the marine ecosystem and in global biogeochemical processes. Despite their ecological importance, knowledge on seasonal dynamics, community composition and abundance at the species level is limited due to their small cell size and few morphological features visible under the light microscope. Here, we present unique data on haptophyte seasonal diversity and dynamics from two annual cycles, with the taxonomic resolution and sampling depth obtained with high-throughput sequencing. From outer Oslofjorden, S Norway, nano- and picoplanktonic samples were collected monthly for 2 years, and the haptophytes targeted by amplification of RNA/cDNA with Haptophyta-specific 18S rDNA V4 primers. We obtained 156 operational taxonomic units (OTUs), from c. 400.000 454 pyrosequencing reads, after rigorous bioinformatic filtering and clustering at 99.5%. Most OTUs represented uncultured and/or not yet 18S rDNA-sequenced species. Haptophyte OTU richness and community composition exhibited high temporal variation and significant yearly periodicity. Richness was highest in September-October (autumn) and lowest in April-May (spring). Some taxa were detected all year, such as Chrysochromulina simplex, Emiliania huxleyi and Phaeocystis cordata, whereas most calcifying coccolithophores only appeared from summer to early winter. We also revealed the seasonal dynamics of OTUs representing putative novel classes (clades HAP-3-5) or orders (clades D, E, F). Season, light and temperature accounted for 29% of the variation in OTU composition. Residual variation may be related to biotic factors, such as competition and viral infection. This study provides new, in-depth knowledge on seasonal diversity and dynamics of haptophytes in North Atlantic coastal waters. © 2015 The Authors. Molecular Ecology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Plant nitrogen dynamics and nitrogen-use strategies under altered nitrogen seasonality and competition.

Science.gov (United States)

Yuan, Zhiyou; Liu, Weixing; Niu, Shuli; Wan, Shiqiang

2007-10-01

Numerous studies have examined the effects of climatic factors on the distribution of C(3) and C(4) grasses in various regions throughout the world, but the role of seasonal fluctuations in temperature, precipitation and soil N availability in regulating growth and competition of these two functional types is still not well understood. This report is about the effects of seasonality of soil N availability and competition on plant N dynamics and N-use strategies of one C(3) (Leymus chinensis) and one C(4) (Chloris virgata) grass species. Leymus chinensis and C. virgata, two grass species native to the temperate steppe in northern China, were planted in a monoculture and a mixture under three different N seasonal availabilities: an average model (AM) with N evenly distributed over the growing season; a one-peak model (OM) with more N in summer than in spring and autumn; and a two-peak model (TM) with more N in spring and autumn than in summer. The results showed that the altered N seasonality changed plant N concentration, with the highest value of L. chinensis under the OM treatment and C. virgata under the TM treatment, respectively. N seasonality also affected plant N content, N productivity and N-resorption efficiency and proficiency in both the C(3) and C(4) species. Interspecific competition influenced N-use and resorption efficiency in both the C(3) and C(4) species, with higher N-use and resorption efficiency in the mixture than in monoculture. The C(4) grass had higher N-use efficiency than the C(3) grass due to its higher N productivity, irrespective of the N treatment or competition. The observations suggest that N-use strategies in the C(3) and C(4) species used in the study were closely related to seasonal dynamics of N supply and competition. N seasonality might be involved in the growth and temporal niche separation between C(3) and C(4) species observed in the natural ecosystems.

Understanding myxozoan infection dynamics in the sea: Seasonality and transmission of Ceratomyxa puntazzi

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Alama-Bermejo, Gema; Šíma, Radek; Raga, J. A.; Holzer, Astrid S.

2013-01-01

Roč. 43, č. 9 (2013), s. 771-780 ISSN 0020-7519 R&D Projects: GA ČR GBP505/12/G112 Grant - others:Valencian Autonomous Government(ES) BFPI/2007/289; Valencian Autonomous Government(ES) GVPRE/2008/185; Valencian Autonomous Government(ES) PROTMETEO/2011/040; Valencian Autonomous Government(ES) ISIC/2012/003 Institutional support: RVO:60077344 Keywords : Ceratomyxa puntazzi * Myxozoa * Diplodus puntazzo * Sentinel fish * Seawater * qPCR * Seasonality * Transmission Subject RIV: EB - Genetics ; Molecular Biology Impact factor: 3.404, year: 2013

Seasonal methane dynamics in three temperate grasslands on peat

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schäfer, Carolyn; Elsgaard, Lars; Hoffmann, Carl Christian

2012-01-01

Background and Aims Drained peatlands are considered to be insignificant CH4 sources, but the effect of drainage on CH4 dynamics has not been extensively studied. We investigated seasonal dynamics of CH4 in two fen peat soils and one bog peat soil under permanent grassland in Denmark. Methods Soil......, even though soil CH4 concentrations of up to 155 and 1000 μmol CH4 dm−3 were measured in one of the fen peats and in the bog peat, respectively. Significant CH4 concentrations were observed above the water table. Methane production assays confirmed the presence of viable methanogens in the upper parts...... of the bog peat soil. The aerenchymous plant Juncus effusus L. liberated CH4 from the peat at rates of up to 3.3 mg CH4 m−2 h−1. No CH4 dynamics were observed in the second fen peat which, in contrast to the other two sites, had high sulfate concentrations. Conclusions Peat type and the distribution...

The Contribution of GGOS to Understanding Dynamic Earth Processes

Science.gov (United States)

Gross, Richard

2017-04-01

Geodesy is the science of the Earth's shape, size, gravity and rotation, including their evolution in time. Geodetic observations play a major role in the solid Earth sciences because they are fundamental for the understanding and modeling of Earth system processes. Changes in the Earth's shape, its gravitational field, and its rotation are caused by external forces acting on the Earth system and internal processes involving mass transfer and exchange of angular and linear momentum. Thus, variations in these geodetic quantities of the Earth reflect and constrain mechanical and thermo-dynamic processes in the Earth system. Mitigating the impact on human life and property of natural hazards such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, debris flows, landslides, land subsidence, sea level change, tsunamis, floods, storm surges, hurricanes and extreme weather is an important scientific task to which geodetic observations make fundamental contributions. Geodetic observations can be used to monitor the pre-eruptive deformation of volcanoes and the pre-seismic deformation of earthquake fault zones, aiding in the issuance of volcanic eruption and earthquake warnings. They can also be used to rapidly estimate earthquake fault motion, aiding in the modeling of tsunami genesis and the issuance of tsunami warnings. Geodetic observations are also used in other areas of the Earth sciences, not just the solid Earth sciences. For example, geodesy contributes to atmospheric science by supporting both observation and prediction of the weather by geo-referencing meteorological observing data and by globally tracking change in stratospheric mass and lower tropospheric water vapor fields. Geodetic measurements of refraction profiles derived from satellite occultation data are routinely assimilated into numerical weather prediction models. Geodesy contributes to hydrologic studies by providing a unique global reference system for measurements of: sub-seasonal, seasonal and secular movements

Peripartal rumination dynamics and health status in cows calving in hot and cool seasons.

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Paudyal, S; Maunsell, F; Richeson, J; Risco, C; Donovan, A; Pinedo, P

2016-11-01

Our objective was to evaluate the effect of season of calving, associated with variable levels of heat stress, on the dynamics of rumination during the prepartum period and early lactation of cows that were healthy or affected by peripartal health disorders. Three weeks before the estimated due date, 210 multiparous Holstein cows at the University of Florida Dairy Unit were affixed with a neck collar containing rumination loggers, providing rumination time (RT) in 2-h periods. One blood sample was collected in a subpopulation of cows (n=76) at 12 to 48h postcalving to assess metabolic status by determining serum calcium, nonesterified fatty acid, and β-hydroxybutyrate concentrations. The occurrence of peripartal health disorders (dystocia, clinical ketosis, clinical hypocalcemia, metritis, and mastitis) was assessed by University of Florida veterinarians and trained farm personnel. We analyzed the dynamics of daily RT over ± 14d relative to parturition in cows that were healthy or affected by specific health disorders by season of calving [hot season, June to September (n=77); cool season, November to April (n=118)] using repeated measures analysis and comparison of least squares means at different time points relative to calving. Rumination was consistently reduced on the day of calving in both healthy and sick cows in both the hot and cool seasons. Only hot-season calvings had shorter average daily RT prepartum and postpartum in cows affected by severe negative energy balance and subclinical ketosis. Dystocia during the hot season was associated with shorter daily RT prepartum; for cool-season calvings, cows with dystocia had reduced RT postpartum. We also observed reduced RT in cows with ketosis prepartum and postpartum in both the hot and cool seasons. Daily RT was reduced postpartum in cows with hypocalcemia and mastitis that calved during the cool season, and it was shorter in cows with metritis in both the hot and cool seasons. Our results indicated that

Changing seasonality of Arctic hydrology disrupts key biotic linkages in Arctic aquatic ecosystems.

Science.gov (United States)

Deegan, L.; MacKenzie, C.; Peterson, B. J.; Fishscape Project

2011-12-01

Arctic grayling (Thymallus arcticus) is an important circumpolar species that provide a model system for understanding the impacts of changing seasonality on arctic ecosystem function. Grayling serve as food for other biota, including lake trout, birds and humans, and act as top-down controls in stream ecosystems. In Arctic tundra streams, grayling spend their summers in streams but are obligated to move back into deep overwintering lakes in the fall. Climatic change that affects the seasonality of river hydrology could have a significant impact on grayling populations: grayling may leave overwintering lakes sooner in the spring and return later in the fall due to a longer open water season, but the migration could be disrupted by drought due to increased variability in discharge. In turn, a shorter overwintering season may impact lake trout dynamics in the lakes, which may rely on the seasonal inputs of stream nutrients in the form of migrating grayling into these oligotrophic lakes. To assess how shifting seasonality of Arctic river hydrology may disrupt key trophic linkages within and between lake and stream components of watersheds on the North Slope of the Brooks Mountain Range, Alaska, we have undertaken new work on grayling and lake trout population and food web dynamics. We use Passive Integrated Transponder (PIT) tags coupled with stream-width antenna units to monitor grayling movement across Arctic tundra watersheds during the summer, and into overwintering habitat in the fall. Results indicate that day length may prime grayling migration readiness, but that flooding events are likely the cue grayling use to initiate migration in to overwintering lakes. Many fish used high discharge events in the stream as an opportunity to move into lakes. Stream and lake derived stable isotopes also indicate that lake trout rely on these seasonally transported inputs of stream nutrients for growth. Thus, changes in the seasonality of river hydrology may have broader

Examining Dynamical Processes of Tropical Mountain Hydroclimate, Particularly During the Wet Season, Through Integration of Autonomous Sensor Observations and Climate Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Hellstrom, R. A.; Fernandez, A.; Mark, B. G.; Covert, J. M.

2016-12-01

Peru is facing imminent water resource issues as glaciers retreat and demand increases, yet limited observations and model resolution hamper understanding of hydrometerological processes on local to regional scales. Much of current global and regional climate studies neglect the meteorological forcing of lapse rates (LRs) and valley and slope wind dynamics on critical components of the Peruvian Andes' water-cycle, and herein we emphasize the wet season. In 2004 and 2005 we installed an autonomous sensor network (ASN) within the glacierized Llanganuco Valley, Cordillera Blanca (9°S), consisting of discrete, cost-effective, automatic temperature loggers located along the valley axis and anchored by two automatic weather stations. Comparisons of these embedded hydrometeorological measurements from the ASN and climate modeling by dynamical downscaling using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) elucidate distinct diurnal and seasonal characteristics of the mountain wind regime and LRs. Wind, temperature, humidity, and cloud simulations suggest that thermally driven up-valley and slope winds converging with easterly flow aloft enhance late afternoon and evening cloud development which helps explain nocturnal wet season precipitation maxima measured by the ASN. Furthermore, the extreme diurnal variability of along-valley-axis LR, and valley wind detected from ground observations and confirmed by dynamical downscaling demonstrate the importance of realistic scale parameterizations of the atmospheric boundary layer to improve regional climate model projections in mountainous regions. We are currently considering to use intermediate climate models such as ICAR to reduce computing cost and we continue to maintain the ASN in the Cordillera Blanca.

Diversity and Seasonal Dynamics of Actinobacteria Populations in Four Lakes in Northeastern Germany

Science.gov (United States)

Allgaier, Martin; Grossart, Hans-Peter

2006-01-01

The phylogenetic diversity and seasonal dynamics of freshwater Actinobacteria populations in four limnologically different lakes of the Mecklenburg-Brandenburg Lake District (northeastern Germany) were investigated. Fluorescence in situ hybridization was used to determine the seasonal abundances and dynamics of total Actinobacteria (probe HGC69a) and the three actinobacterial subclusters acI, acI-A, and acI-B (probes AcI-852, AcI-840-1, and AcI-840-2). Seasonal means of total Actinobacteria abundances in the epilimnia of the lakes varied from 13 to 36%, with maximum values of 30 to 58%, of all DAPI (4′,6′-diamidino-2-phenylindole)-stained cells. Around 80% of total Actinobacteria belonged to the acI cluster. The two subclusters acI-A and acI-B accounted for 60 to 91% of the acI cluster and showed seasonal means of 49% (acI-B) and 23% (acI-A) in relation to the acI cluster. Total Actinobacteria and members of the clusters acI and acI-B showed distinct seasonal changes in their absolute abundances, with maxima in late spring and fall/winter. In eight clone libraries constructed from the lakes, a total of 76 actinobacterial 16S rRNA gene sequences were identified from a total of 177 clones. The majority of the Actinobacteria sequences belonged to the acI and acIV cluster. Several new clusters and subclusters were found (acSTL, scB1-4, and acIVA-D). The majority of all obtained 16S rRNA gene sequences are distinct from those of already-cultured freshwater Actinobacteria. PMID:16672495

Periodic matrix models for seasonal dynamics of structured populations with application to a seabird population.

Science.gov (United States)

Cushing, J M; Henson, Shandelle M

2018-02-03

For structured populations with an annual breeding season, life-stage interactions and behavioral tactics may occur on a faster time scale than that of population dynamics. Motivated by recent field studies of the effect of rising sea surface temperature (SST) on within-breeding-season behaviors in colonial seabirds, we formulate and analyze a general class of discrete-time matrix models designed to account for changes in behavioral tactics within the breeding season and their dynamic consequences at the population level across breeding seasons. As a specific example, we focus on egg cannibalism and the daily reproductive synchrony observed in seabirds. Using the model, we investigate circumstances under which these life history tactics can be beneficial or non-beneficial at the population level in light of the expected continued rise in SST. Using bifurcation theoretic techniques, we study the nature of non-extinction, seasonal cycles as a function of environmental resource availability as they are created upon destabilization of the extinction state. Of particular interest are backward bifurcations in that they typically create strong Allee effects in population models which, in turn, lead to the benefit of possible (initial condition dependent) survival in adverse environments. We find that positive density effects (component Allee effects) due to increased adult survival from cannibalism and the propensity of females to synchronize daily egg laying can produce a strong Allee effect due to a backward bifurcation.

Seasonal Pattern of Decomposition and N, P, and C Dynamics in Leaf litter in a Mongolian Oak Forest and a Korean Pine Plantation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jaeeun Sohng

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Distinct seasons and diverse tree species characterize temperate deciduous forests in NE Asia, but large areas of deciduous forests have been converted to conifer plantations. This study was conducted to understand the effects of seasons and tree species on leaf litter decomposition in a temperate forest. Using the litterbag method, the decomposition rate and nitrogen, phosphorous, and carbon dynamics of Mongolian oak (Quercus mongolica, Korean pine (Pinus koraiensis, and their mixed leaf litter were compared for 24 months in a Mongolian oak stand, an adjacent Korean pine plantation, and a Mongolian oak—Korean pine mixed stand. The decomposition rates of all the leaf litter types followed a pattern of distinct seasonal changes: most leaf litter decomposition occurred during the summer. Tree species was less influential on the leaf litter decomposition. The decomposition rates among different leaf litter types within the same stand were not significantly different, indicating no mixed litter effect. The immobilization of leaf litter N and P lasted for 14 months. Mongolian oak leaf litter and Korean pine leaf litter showed different N and P contents and dynamics during the decomposition, and soil P2O5 was highest in the Korean pine plantation, suggesting effects of plantation on soil nutrient budget.

Agricultural crops and soil treatment impacts on the daily and seasonal dynamics of CO2 fluxes in the field agroecosystems at the Central region of Russia

Science.gov (United States)

Mazirov, Ilya; Vasenev, Ivan; Meshalkina, Joulia; Yaroslavtsev, Alexis; Berezovskiy, Egor; Djancharov, Turmusbek

2015-04-01

The problem of greenhouse gases' concentrations increasing becomes more and more important due to global changes issues. The main component of greenhouse gases is carbon dioxide. The researches focused on its fluxes in natural and anthropogenic modified landscapes can help in this problem solution. Our research has been done with support of the RF Government grants # 11.G34.31.0079 and # 14.120.14.4266 and of FP7 Grant # 603542 LUC4C in the representative for Central Region of Russia field agroecosystems at the Precision Farming Experimental Field of Russian Timiryazev State Agrarian University with cultivated sod podzoluvisols, barley and oats - vetch grass mix (Moscow station of the RusFluxNet). The daily and seasonal dynamics of the carbon dioxide have been studied at the ecosystem level by the Eddy covariance method (2 stations) and at the soil level by the exposition chamber method (40 chambers) with mobile infra red gas analyzer (Li-Cor 820). The primary Eddy covariance monitoring data on CO2 fluxes and water vapor have been processed by EddyPro software developed by LI-COR Biosciences. According to the two-year monitoring data the daily CO2 sink during the vegetation season is usually approximately two times higher than its emission at night. Seasonal CO2 fluxes comparative stabilization has been fixed in case the plants height around 10-12 cm and it usually persist until the wax ripeness phase. There is strong dependence between the soil CO2 emission and the air temperature with the correlation coefficient 0.86 in average (due to strong input of the soil thin top functional subhorizon), but it drops essentially at the end of the season - till 0.38. The soil moisture impact on CO2 fluxes dynamics was less, with negative correlation at the end of the season. High daily dynamics of CO2 fluxes determines the protocol requirements for seasonal soil monitoring investigation with less limitation at the end of the season. The accumulated monitoring data will be

Seasonal dynamics of the cestode fauna in spiny dogfish, Squalus acanthias (Squaliformes: Squalidae).

Science.gov (United States)

Pickering, Maria; Caira, Janine N

2014-06-01

This study furthers understanding of cestode infections in a marine environment through time and space by following seasonal fluctuations in infection parameters of three cestode species (Gilquinia squali, Trilocularia gracilis and Phyllobothrium squali) parasitizing spiny dogfish (Squalus acanthias) in the northwest Atlantic and comparing them to work previously published from the northeast Atlantic on T. gracilis. For each cestode species, host size, season and presence of the other cestode species were analysed using generalized linear models to determine if they were good predictors of prevalence and intensity. Infection parameters differed across season for the three cestode species. However, within T. gracilis seasonal trends were found to be remarkably similar on both sides of the Atlantic, differing only in a somewhat delayed decline in prevalence in the northwest Atlantic. The differences seen in infection measures across cestode species likely reflect the unique life history strategies of different parasite species. While general trends appear to be maintained across disparate localities, variation seen is likely due to differences in accessibility to intermediate hosts and host diet across sites. The knowledge gained from understanding cestode infections in the vast ocean environment allows us to speculate about the factors driving fluctuations in parasite infections in elasmobranchs.

The specificity of host-bat fly interaction networks across vegetation and seasonal variation.

Science.gov (United States)

Zarazúa-Carbajal, Mariana; Saldaña-Vázquez, Romeo A; Sandoval-Ruiz, César A; Stoner, Kathryn E; Benitez-Malvido, Julieta

2016-10-01

Vegetation type and seasonality promote changes in the species composition and abundance of parasite hosts. However, it is poorly known how these variables affect host-parasite interaction networks. This information is important to understand the dynamics of parasite-host relationships according to biotic and abiotic changes. We compared the specialization of host-bat fly interaction networks, as well as bat fly and host species composition between upland dry forest and riparian forest and between dry and rainy seasons in a tropical dry forest in Jalisco, Mexico. Bat flies were surveyed by direct collection from bats. Our results showed that host-bat fly interaction networks were more specialized in upland dry forest compared to riparian forest. Bat fly species composition was different between the dry and rainy seasons, while host species composition was different between upland dry forest and riparian forest. The higher specialization in upland dry forest could be related to the differences in bat host species composition and their respective roosting habits. Variation in the composition of bat fly species between dry and rainy seasons coincides with the seasonal shifts in their species richness. Our study confirms the high specialization of host-bat fly interactions and shows the importance of biotic and abiotic factors to understand the dynamics of parasite-host interactions.

Seasonal module dynamics of Turbinaria triquetra (Fucales, Phaeophyceae) in the southern Red Sea

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ateweberhan, Mebrahtu; Bruggemann, J. Henrich; Breeman, Anneke M.

2006-01-01

Module dynamics in the fucoid alga Turbinaria triquetra (J. Agardh) Kutzing were studied on a shallow reef flat in the southern Red Sea. Seasonal patterns in thallus density and size were determined, and the initiation, growth, reproduction, and shedding of modules were studied using a tagging

Understanding Service-Oriented Systems Using Dynamic Analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Espinha, T.; Zaidman, A.; Gross, H.G.

2011-01-01

When trying to understand a system that is based on the principles of Service-Oriented Architecture (SOA), it is typically not enough to understand the individual services in the architecture, but also the interactions between the services. In this paper, we present a technique based on dynamic

Understanding Seasonal Dynamics of the Photo-Protective Xanthophyll Cycle Improves Remote Detection of Photosynthetic Phenology in Deciduous Trees and Evergreen Conifers

Science.gov (United States)

Ensminger, I.; Wong, C. Y.; Junker, L. V.; Bathena, Y.; Arain, M. A.; D'Odorico, P.

2017-12-01

The ability of plants to sequester carbon is highly variable over the course of the year and reflects seasonal variation in photosynthetic efficiency. This seasonal variation is most prominent during autumn, when leaves of deciduous tree species undergo senescence, which is associated with the downregulation of photosynthesis and a change of leaf color and leaf optical properties. Vegetation indices derived from remote sensing of leaf optical properties using e.g. spectral reflectance measurements are increasingly used to monitor and predict growing season length and seasonal variation in carbon sequestration. Here we compare leaf-level, canopy-level and drone based observations of leaf spectral reflectance measurements. We demonstrate that some of the widely used vegetation indices such as the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and photochemical reflectance index (PRI) vary in their ability to adequately track the seasonal variation in photosynthetic efficiency and chlorophyll content. We further show that monitoring seasonal variation of photosynthesis using NDVI or PRI is particularly challenging in evergreen conifers, due to little seasonal variation in foliage. However, there is remarkable seasonal variation in leaf optical properties associated with changes in pools of xanthophyll cycle pigments and carotenoids that provide a promising way of monitoring photosynthetic phenology in evergreen conifers via leaf reflectance measurements.

Titan 2D: Understanding Titan’s Seasonal Atmospheric Cycles

Science.gov (United States)

Wong, Michael; Zhang, X.; Li, C.; Hu, R.; Shia, R.; Newman, C.; Müller-Wodarg, I.; Yung, Y.

2013-10-01

understand the seasonal and meridional distribution of hydrocarbons as well as other atmospheric cycles on Titan.

Seasonal dynamics in the relative density of aquatic flora along some coastal areas of the Red Sea, Tabuk, Saudi Arabia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Abid Ali Ansari

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Plants are the producers of all autotrophic ecosystems’ and are the base of the food chain taking energy from the sun and converting it into food for all other organisms through photosynthesis. Plants grow in certain places and seasons when the environmental factors are suitable for their germination, growth and developments that influence their diversity. Environmental factors can include abiotic factors such as temperature, light, moisture, soil nutrients; or biotic factors like competition from other plants or grazing by animals. Anthropogenic perturbations can also influence distribution patterns. Monitoring of ecological habitats and diversity of some aquatic flora along some coastal areas of Red Sea has been done to understand the dynamics of aquatic plants influenced by prevailing environmental and anthropogenic perturbations The results of this research showed that the summer season is the most suitable period for the study of aquatic plant diversity along the coastal sites of Red Sea. The aquatic flora had high relative density and diversity in April, May, June and July and these four months of the summer season are best for collection of aquatic plants from the selected coastal areas of Red Sea for medicinal purposes and ecological studies.

Seasonal photosynthetic activity in evergreen conifer leaves monitored with spectral reflectance

Science.gov (United States)

Wong, C. Y.; Gamon, J. A.

2013-12-01

Boreal evergreen conifers must maintain photosynthetic systems in environments where temperatures vary greatly across seasons from high temperatures in the summer to freezing levels in the winter. This involves seasonal downregulation and photoprotection during periods of extreme temperatures. To better understand this downregulation, seasonal dynamics of photosynthesis of lodgepole (Pinus contorta D.) and ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa D.) were monitored in Edmonton, Canada over two years. Spectral reflectance at the leaf and stand scales was measured weekly and the Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI), often used as a proxy for chlorophyll and carotenoid pigment levels and photosynthetic light-use efficiency (LUE), was used to track the seasonal dynamics of photosynthetic activity. Additional physiological measurements included leaf pigment content, chlorophyll fluorescence, and gas exchange. All the metrics indicate large seasonal changes in photosynthetic activity, with a sharp transition from winter downregulation to active photosynthesis in the spring and a more gradual fall transition into winter. The PRI was a good indicator of several other variables including seasonally changing photosynthetic activity, chlorophyll fluorescence, photosynthetic LUE, and pigment pool sizes. Over the two-year cycle, PRI was primarily driven by changes in constitutive (chlorophyll:carotenoid) pigment levels correlated with seasonal photosynthetic activity, with a much smaller variation caused by diurnal changes in xanthophyll cycle activity (conversion between violaxanthin & zeaxanthin). Leaf and canopy scale PRI measurements exhibited parallel responses during the winter-spring transition. Together, our findings indicate that evergreen conifers photosynthetic system possesses a remarkable degree of resilience in response to large temperature changes across seasons, and that optical remote sensing can be used to observe the seasonal effects on photosynthesis and

Community structure and seasonal dynamics of diatom biofilms and associated grazers in intertidal mudflats

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sahan, E.; Sabbe, K.; Creach, V.; Hernandez-Raquet, G.; Vyverman, W.; Stal, L.J.; Muyzer, G.

2007-01-01

The composition and seasonal dynamics of biofilm-associated eukaryotic communities were analysed at the metre and kilometre scale along a salinity gradient in the Westerschelde estuary (The Netherlands), using microscopy and a genetic fingerprinting technique (PCR-DGGE). Microphytobenthic biomass,

Managing living marine resources in a dynamic environment: the role of seasonal to decadal climate forecasts

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tommasi, Desiree; Stock, Charles A.; Hobday, Alistair J.

2017-01-01

and industry operations, as well as new research avenues in fisheries science. LMRs respond to climate variability via changes in physiology and behavior. For species and systems where climate-fisheries links are well established, forecasted LMR responses can lead to anticipatory and more effective decisions......Recent developments in global dynamical climate prediction systems have allowed for skillful predictions of climate variables relevant to living marine resources (LMRs) at a scale useful to understanding and managing LMRs. Such predictions present opportunities for improved LMR management......, benefitting both managers and stakeholders. Here, we provide an overview of climate prediction systems and advances in seasonal to decadal prediction of marine-resource relevant environmental variables. We then describe a range of climate-sensitive LMR decisions that can be taken at lead-times of months...

Understanding Digital Learning from the Perspective of Systems Dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Kok, Ayse

2009-01-01

The System Dynamics approach can be seen as a new way of understanding dynamical phenonema (natural, physical, biological, etc.) that occur in our daily lives taking into consideration not only single pairs of cause-effect variables, but the functioning of the system as a whole. This approach also provides the students with a new understanding in…

Dynamics in Microbial Composition and Functionality over a Season in Two Contrasting Estuarine Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Traving, Sachia; Bentzon-Tilia, Mikkel; Mantikci, Mustafa

2015-01-01

In aquatic microbial ecology it remains unclear how bacterial community composition and dynamics are coupled to functionality, and whether this putative coupling varies over the season. In this study we address the questions if bacterial community composition can be linked to community function, ...

Seasonal dynamics of structure and functional activity of ectomycorrhizal roots of the Siberian fir

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. A. Sizonenko

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The aim of our work was to study seasonal dynamics of the Siberian fir Abies sibirica Ledeb. ectomycorrhizal morpho-anatomical structure, respiration rate and fluorescence. The study was carried out in the bilberry-sphagnum spruce forest in the middle taiga of the Komi Republic, Russia. The morpho-anatomical structure and fluorescence parameters were studied by light and luminescence microscopy. Thin root respiration was studied in intact fine roots in the field using an infrared gas analyzer. 12 subtypes of fungal mantels were revealed in ectomycorrhizal fir roots; their amount and composition demonstrated seasonal dynamic changes. At the beginning vegetation stage, the diversity and proportion of pseudoparenchymatous and double covers were maximal. Plant component of ectomycorrhizae that includes cortical parenchyma and stele had high activity of fluorescence during the entire vegetation period. The dynamics of staining of fungal component (fungal mantel and Hartig net was more contrasting. The highest fluorescence intensity of cortical parenchyma was found in ectomycorrhizae with maximal fungal mantel thickness. High proportion of tannin cells in cortical parenchyma was related with low intensity of fungal mantel and Hartig net fluorescence. During vegetation season, maximal amount of intensively strained ectomycorrhizal elements occurred in July and unstrained – in June and August. Relation between fine roots respiration and an increase of brightly strained ectomycorrhizal structural elements in fir roots was not statistically significant. Root CO2-emission was lower in May and September in comparison with summer months. For respiration rate of fir fine roots we found its strong positive correlation with the litter temperature.

The taxonomy and seasonal population dynamics of some Magela Creek flood plain microcrustaceans (Cladocera and copedoda)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Julli, M.E.

1986-01-01

Six Magela Creek floodplain billabongs were sampled between September 1981 and January 1983 to determine the seasonal population dynamics of littoral and limnetic microcrustaceans. Thirty-seven cladoceran and four copepod species were identified amongst littoral weedbeds and several unidentified harpacticoid copepods and ostracods were also found. By comparison only 6 cladoceran and 4 copepod species were found in limnetic areas. Littoral species generally attained their highest densities during the mid-Wet to Early-dry seasons. The number of open water species present in samples generally increased with the progression of the Dry season. Towards the end of the Dry season, a simplification of the limnetic species assemblage occurred in some billabongs, perhaps in response to adverse changes in water quality

Seasonal Oxygen Dynamics in a Thermokarst Bog in Interior Alaska: Implications for Rates of Methane Oxidation

Science.gov (United States)

Neumann, R. B.; Moorberg, C.; Wong, A.; Waldrop, M. P.; Turetsky, M. R.

2015-12-01

Methane is a potent greenhouse gas, and wetlands represent the largest natural source of methane to the atmosphere. However, much of the methane generated in anoxic wetlands never gets emitted to the atmosphere; up to >90% of generated methane can get oxidized to carbon dioxide. Thus, oxidation is an important methane sink and changes in the rate of methane oxidation can affect wetland methane emissions. Most methane is aerobically oxidized at oxic-anoxic interfaces where rates of oxidation strongly depend on methane and oxygen concentrations. In wetlands, oxygen is often the limiting substrate. To improve understanding of belowground oxygen dynamics and its impact on methane oxidation, we deployed two planar optical oxygen sensors in a thermokarst bog in interior Alaska. Previous work at this site indicated that, similar to other sites, rates of methane oxidation decrease over the growing season. We used the sensors to track spatial and temporal patterns of oxygen concentrations over the growing season. We coupled these in-situ oxygen measurements with periodic oxygen injection experiments performed against the sensor to quantify belowground rates of oxygen consumption. We found that over the season, the thickness of the oxygenated water layer at the peatland surface decreased. Previous research has indicated that in sphagnum-dominated peatlands, like the one studied here, rates of methane oxidation are highest at or slightly below the water table. It is in these saturated but oxygenated locations that both methane and oxygen are available. Thus, a seasonal reduction in the thickness of the oxygenated water layer could restrict methane oxidation. The decrease in thickness of the oxygenated layer coincided with an increase in the rate of oxygen consumption during our oxygen injection experiments. The increase in oxygen consumption was not explained by temperature; we infer it was due to an increase in substrate availability for oxygen consuming reactions and

Understanding Seasonal Changes to Improve Good Practices in Livestock Management

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Francesco Martelli

2018-06-01

Full Text Available Background and Aim: Food quality control techniques based on process control methods are increasingly adopted in livestock production systems to fulfill increasing market's expectations toward competitiveness and issues linked to One Health pillars (environment, animal, and human health. Control Charts allow monitoring and systematic investigation of sources of variability in dairy production parameters. These parameters, however, may be affected by seasonal variations that render impractical, biased or ineffective the use statistical control charts. A possible approach to this problem is to adapt seasonal adjustment methods used for the analysis of economic and demographic seasonal time series. The aim of the present work is to evaluate a seasonal decomposition technique called X-11 on milk parameters routinely collected also in small farms (fat, protein, and lactose content, solids-not-fat, freezing point, somatic cell count, total bacterial count and to test the efficacy of different seasonal removal methods to improve the effectiveness of statistical control charting.Method: Data collection was carried out for 3 years on routinely monitored bulk tank milk parameters of a small farm. Seasonality presence was statistically assessed on milk parameters and, for those parameters showing seasonality, control charts for individuals were applied on raw data, on X-11 seasonally adjusted data, and on data smoothed with a symmetric moving average filter. Correlation of seasonally influenced parameters with daily mean temperature was investigated.Results: Presence of seasonality in milk parameters was statistically assessed for fat, protein, and solids-non-fat components. The X-11 seasonally-adjusted control charts showed a reduced number of violations (false alarms with respect to non-seasonally adjusted control chart (from 5 to 1 violation for fat, from 17 to 1 violation for protein, and from 9 to none violation for solids-non-fat.. This result was

Seasonal sediment dynamics shape temperate bedrock reef communities

Science.gov (United States)

Figurski, Jared D.; Freiwald, Jan; Lonhart, Steve I.; Storlazzi, Curt

2016-01-01

Mobilized seafloor sediment can impact benthic reef communities through burial, scour, and turbidity. These processes are ubiquitous in coastal oceans and, through their influence on the survival, fitness, and interactions of species, can alter the structure and function of benthic communities. In northern Monterey Bay, California, USA, as much as 30% of the seafloor is buried or exposed seasonally, making this an ideal location to test how subtidal temperate rocky reef communities vary in the presence and absence of chronic sediment-based disturbances. Designated dynamic plots were naturally inundated by sediment in summer (50 to 100% cover) and swept clean in winter, whereas designated stable plots remained free of sediment during our study. Multivariate analyses indicated significant differences in the structure of sessile and mobile communities between dynamic and stable reef habitats. For sessile species, community structure in disturbed plots was less variable in space and time than in stable plots due to the maintenance of an early successional state. In contrast, community structure of mobile species varied more in disturbed plots than in stable plots, reflecting how mobile species distribute in response to sediment dynamics. Some species were found only in these disturbed areas, suggesting that the spatial mosaic of disturbance could increase regional diversity. We discuss how the relative ability of species to tolerate disturbance at different life history stages and their ability to colonize habitat translate into community-level differences among habitats, and how this response varies between mobile and sessile communities.

Ideas and things: understanding the dynamic dimension of intellectual capital

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Christiaan Stam

2010-01-01

In today’s intellectual capital literature, we see a shift from identifying intangibles towards understanding the dynamics of value creation. As it is not clear what “dynamic” stands for, the aim of this explorative and conceptual paper is to contribute to a better understanding of the dynamic

Timing and severity of immunizing diseases in rabbits is controlled by seasonal matching of host and pathogen dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

Wells, Konstans; Brook, Barry W; Lacy, Robert C; Mutze, Greg J; Peacock, David E; Sinclair, Ron G; Schwensow, Nina; Cassey, Phillip; O'Hara, Robert B; Fordham, Damien A

2015-02-06

Infectious diseases can exert a strong influence on the dynamics of host populations, but it remains unclear why such disease-mediated control only occurs under particular environmental conditions. We used 16 years of detailed field data on invasive European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) in Australia, linked to individual-based stochastic models and Bayesian approximations, to test whether (i) mortality associated with rabbit haemorrhagic disease (RHD) is driven primarily by seasonal matches/mismatches between demographic rates and epidemiological dynamics and (ii) delayed infection (arising from insusceptibility and maternal antibodies in juveniles) are important factors in determining disease severity and local population persistence of rabbits. We found that both the timing of reproduction and exposure to viruses drove recurrent seasonal epidemics of RHD. Protection conferred by insusceptibility and maternal antibodies controlled seasonal disease outbreaks by delaying infection; this could have also allowed escape from disease. The persistence of local populations was a stochastic outcome of recovery rates from both RHD and myxomatosis. If susceptibility to RHD is delayed, myxomatosis will have a pronounced effect on population extirpation when the two viruses coexist. This has important implications for wildlife management, because it is likely that such seasonal interplay and disease dynamics has a strong effect on long-term population viability for many species. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Phytoplankton dynamics in relation to seasonal variability and upwelling and relaxation patterns at the mouth of Ria de Aveiro (West Iberian Margin over a four-year period.

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Tânia Vidal

Full Text Available From June 2004 to December 2007, samples were weekly collected at a fixed station located at the mouth of Ria de Aveiro (West Iberian Margin. We examined the seasonal and inter-annual fluctuations in composition and community structure of the phytoplankton in relation to the main environmental drivers and assessed the influence of the oceanographic regime, namely changes in frequency and intensity of upwelling events, over the dynamics of the phytoplankton assemblage. The samples were consistently handled and a final subset of 136 OTUs (taxa with relative abundance > 0.01% was subsequently submitted to various multivariate analyses. The phytoplankton assemblage showed significant changes at all temporal scales but with an overriding importance of seasonality over longer- (inter-annual or shorter-term fluctuations (upwelling-related. Sea-surface temperature, salinity and maximum upwelling index were retrieved as the main driver of seasonal change. Seasonal signal was most evident in the fluctuations of chlorophyll a concentration and in the high turnover from the winter to spring phytoplankton assemblage. The seasonal cycle of production and succession was disturbed by upwelling events known to disrupt thermal stratification and induce changes in the phytoplankton assemblage. Our results indicate that both the frequency and intensity of physical forcing were important drivers of such variability, but the outcome in terms of species composition was highly dependent on the available local pool of species and the timing of those events in relation to the seasonal cycle. We conclude that duration, frequency and intensity of upwelling events, which vary seasonally and inter-annually, are paramount for maintaining long-term phytoplankton diversity likely by allowing unstable coexistence and incorporating species turnover at different scales. Our results contribute to the understanding of the complex mechanisms of coastal phytoplankton dynamics in

Seasonal Dynamics of River Corridor Exchange Across the Continental United States

Science.gov (United States)

Gomez-Velez, J. D.; Harvey, J. W.; Scott, D.; Boyer, E. W.; Schmadel, N. M.

2017-12-01

River corridors store and convey mass and energy from landscapes to the ocean, altering water quality and ecosystem functioning at the local, reach, and watershed scales. As water moves through river corridors from headwaters streams to coastal estuaries, dynamic exchange between the river channel and its adjacent riparian, floodplain, and hyporheic zones, combined with ponded waters such as lakes and reservoirs, results in the emergence of hot spots and moments for biogeochemical transformations. In this work, we used the model Networks with EXchange and Subsurface Storage (NEXSS) to estimate seasonal variations in river corridor exchange fluxes and residence times along the continental United States. Using a simple routing scheme, we translate these estimates into a cumulative measure of river corridor connectivity at the watershed scale, differentiating the contributions of hyporheic zones, floodplains, and ponded waters. We find that the relative role of these exchange subsystems changes seasonally, driven by the intra-seasonal variability of discharge. In addition, we find that seasonal variations in discharge and the biogeochemical potential of hyporheic zones are out of phase. This behavior results in a significant reduction in hyporheic water quality functions during high flows and emphasizes the potential importance of reconnecting floodplains for managing water quality during seasonal high flows. Physical parameterizations of river corridor processes are critical to model and predict water quality and to sustainably manage water resources under present and future socio-economic and climatic conditions. Parsimonious models like NEXSS can play a key role in the design, implementation, and evaluation of sustainable management practices that target both water quantity and quality at the scale of the nation. This research is a product of the John Wesley Powell Center River Corridor Working Group.

The role of fire-return interval and season of burn in snag dynamics in a south Florida slash pine forest

Science.gov (United States)

Lloyd, John D.; Slater, Gary L.; Snyder, James R.

2012-01-01

Standing dead trees, or snags, are an important habitat element for many animal species. In many ecosystems, fire is a primary driver of snag population dynamics because it can both create and consume snags. The objective of this study was to examine how variation in two key components of the fire regime—fire-return interval and season of burn—affected population dynamics of snags. Using a factorial design, we exposed 1 ha plots, located within larger burn units in a south Florida slash pine (Pinus elliottii var. densa Little and Dorman) forest, to prescribed fire applied at two intervals (approximately 3-year intervals vs. approximately 6-year intervals) and during two seasons (wet season vs. dry season) over a 12- to 13-year period. We found no consistent effect of fire season or frequency on the density of lightly to moderately decayed or heavily decayed snags, suggesting that variation in these elements of the fire regime at the scale we considered is relatively unimportant in the dynamics of snag populations. However, our confidence in these findings is limited by small sample sizes, potentially confounding effects of unmeasured variation in fire behavior and effects (e.g., intensity, severity, synergy with drought cycles) and wide variation in responses within a treatment level. The generalizing of our findings is also limited by the narrow range of treatment levels considered. Future experiments incorporating a wider range of fire regimes and directly quantifying fire intensity would prove useful in identifying more clearly the role of fire in shaping the dynamics of snag populations.

Seasonal Prediction of Regional Surface Air Temperature and First-flowering Date in South Korea using Dynamical Downscaling

Science.gov (United States)

Ahn, J. B.; Hur, J.

2015-12-01

The seasonal prediction of both the surface air temperature and the first-flowering date (FFD) over South Korea are produced using dynamical downscaling (Hur and Ahn, 2015). Dynamical downscaling is performed using Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) v3.0 with the lateral forcing from hourly outputs of Pusan National University (PNU) coupled general circulation model (CGCM) v1.1. Gridded surface air temperature data with high spatial (3km) and temporal (daily) resolution are obtained using the physically-based dynamical models. To reduce systematic bias, simple statistical correction method is then applied to the model output. The FFDs of cherry, peach and pear in South Korea are predicted for the decade of 1999-2008 by applying the corrected daily temperature predictions to the phenological thermal-time model. The WRF v3.0 results reflect the detailed topographical effect, despite having cold and warm biases for warm and cold seasons, respectively. After applying the correction, the mean temperature for early spring (February to April) well represents the general pattern of observation, while preserving the advantages of dynamical downscaling. The FFD predictabilities for the three species of trees are evaluated in terms of qualitative, quantitative and categorical estimations. Although FFDs derived from the corrected WRF results well predict the spatial distribution and the variation of observation, the prediction performance has no statistical significance or appropriate predictability. The approach used in the study may be helpful in obtaining detailed and useful information about FFD and regional temperature by accounting for physically-based atmospheric dynamics, although the seasonal predictability of flowering phenology is not high enough. Acknowledgements This work was carried out with the support of the Rural Development Administration Cooperative Research Program for Agriculture Science and Technology Development under Grant Project No. PJ009953 and

Influence of Seasonal Food Availability on the Dynamics of Seabird Feeding Flocks at a Coastal Upwelling Area.

Science.gov (United States)

Anguita, Cristóbal; Simeone, Alejandro

2015-01-01

The formation of multi-species feeding flocks (MSFFs) through visual recruitment is considered an important strategy for obtaining food in seabirds and its functionality has been ascribed to enhanced foraging efficiency. Its use has been demonstrated in much of the world's oceans and includes numerous species. However, there is scant information on the temporal stability of the composition and abundance of MSFFs as well as the effect of seasonal food availability on their dynamics. Between July 2006 and September 2014, we conducted monthly at-sea seabird counts at Valparaiso Bay (32°56' to 33°01'S, 71°36' to 71°46'W) within the area of influence of the Humboldt Current in central Chile. This area is characterized by a marked seasonality in primary and secondary production associated with upwelling, mainly during austral spring-summer. Based on studies that provide evidence that flocking is most frequent when food is both scarce and patchy, we hypothesized that seabird MSFF attributes (i.e. frequency of occurrence, abundance and composition) will be modified according to the seasonal availability of food. Using generalized linear models (GLMs), our results show that the contrasting seasonality in food availability of the study area (using chlorophyll-a concentration as a proxy) had no significant influence on MSFF attributes, sparsely explaining their variations (P>0.05). Rather than seasonal food availability, the observed pattern for MSFF attributes at Valparaiso Bay suggests a substantial influence of reproductive and migratory (boreal and austral migrants) habits of birds that modulates MSFF dynamics consistently throughout the whole year in this highly variable and patchy environment. We highlight the importance of visual recruitment as a mechanism by which migratory and resident birds interact. This would allow them to reduce resource unpredictability, which in turn has a major impact on structuring seabird's MSFF dynamics.

Influence of Seasonal Food Availability on the Dynamics of Seabird Feeding Flocks at a Coastal Upwelling Area.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cristóbal Anguita

Full Text Available The formation of multi-species feeding flocks (MSFFs through visual recruitment is considered an important strategy for obtaining food in seabirds and its functionality has been ascribed to enhanced foraging efficiency. Its use has been demonstrated in much of the world's oceans and includes numerous species. However, there is scant information on the temporal stability of the composition and abundance of MSFFs as well as the effect of seasonal food availability on their dynamics. Between July 2006 and September 2014, we conducted monthly at-sea seabird counts at Valparaiso Bay (32°56' to 33°01'S, 71°36' to 71°46'W within the area of influence of the Humboldt Current in central Chile. This area is characterized by a marked seasonality in primary and secondary production associated with upwelling, mainly during austral spring-summer. Based on studies that provide evidence that flocking is most frequent when food is both scarce and patchy, we hypothesized that seabird MSFF attributes (i.e. frequency of occurrence, abundance and composition will be modified according to the seasonal availability of food. Using generalized linear models (GLMs, our results show that the contrasting seasonality in food availability of the study area (using chlorophyll-a concentration as a proxy had no significant influence on MSFF attributes, sparsely explaining their variations (P>0.05. Rather than seasonal food availability, the observed pattern for MSFF attributes at Valparaiso Bay suggests a substantial influence of reproductive and migratory (boreal and austral migrants habits of birds that modulates MSFF dynamics consistently throughout the whole year in this highly variable and patchy environment. We highlight the importance of visual recruitment as a mechanism by which migratory and resident birds interact. This would allow them to reduce resource unpredictability, which in turn has a major impact on structuring seabird's MSFF dynamics.

Seasonal PCB bioaccumulation in an arctic marine ecosystem: a model analysis incorporating lipid dynamics, food-web productivity and migration.

Science.gov (United States)

Laender, Frederik De; Oevelen, Dick Van; Frantzen, Sylvia; Middelburg, Jack J; Soetaert, Karline

2010-01-01

Primary production and species' lipid contents in Arctic ecosystems are notoriously seasonal. Additionally, seasonal migration patterns of fish may alter prey availability and thus diet. Taking the southern Barents Sea as a study region and PCBs as model contaminants, we examined to what extent each of these factors cause bioaccumulation in fish to change throughout the year. Data on physiology and standing stocks of multiple trophic levels were used to estimated season-specific carbon budgets and by inference also corresponding values for food ingestion and production of cod, capelin, and herring. When combining these values with Arctic lipid dynamics for bioaccumulation model parameter setting, we predicted bioaccumulation factors (BAFs) that were in good agreement with BAFs for cod and capelin observed between 1998 and 2008. BAFs in all fish were 10 times lower in summer than in spring and fall/winter and were mainly driven by lipid dynamics. Trophic magnification factors (TMFs: increase in BAF per unit increase in trophic level as derived from our carbon budgets) were highest for PCB 153 during spring (2.3-2.4) and lowest for PCB 52 in summer and fall/winter (1.5-1.6) and were driven by seasonal shifts in trophic level and lipid dynamics.

Added value of dynamical downscaling of winter seasonal forecasts over North America

Science.gov (United States)

Tefera Diro, Gulilat; Sushama, Laxmi

2017-04-01

Skillful seasonal forecasts have enormous potential benefits for socio-economic sectors that are sensitive to weather and climate conditions, as the early warning routines could reduce the vulnerability of such sectors. In this study, individual ensemble members of the ECMWF global ensemble seasonal forecasts are dynamically downscaled to produce ensemble of regional seasonal forecasts over North America using the fifth generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5). CRCM5 forecasts are initialized on November 1st of each year and are integrated for four months for the 1991-2001 period at 0.22 degree resolution to produce a one-month lead-time forecast. The initial conditions for atmospheric variables are obtained from ERA-Interim reanalysis, whereas the initial conditions for land surface are obtained from a separate ERA-interim driven CRCM5 simulation with spectral nudging applied to the interior domain. The global and regional ensemble forecasts were then verified to investigate the skill and economic benefits of dynamical downscaling. Results indicate that both the global and regional climate models produce skillful precipitation forecast over the southern Great Plains and eastern coasts of the U.S and skillful temperature forecasts over the northern U.S. and most of Canada. In comparison to ECMWF forecasts, CRCM5 forecasts improved the temperature forecast skill over most part of the domain, but the improvements for precipitation is limited to regions with complex topography, where it improves the frequency of intense daily precipitation. CRCM5 forecast also yields a better economic value compared to ECMWF precipitation forecasts, for users whose cost to loss ratio is smaller than 0.5.

The hierarchy of controls on snowmelt-runoff generation over seasonally-frozen hillslopes

OpenAIRE

Coles, Anna E.; Appels, Willemijn M.; McConkey, Brian G.; McDonnell, Jeffrey J.

2016-01-01

Understanding and modeling snowmelt-runoff generation in seasonally-frozen regions is a major challenge in hydrology. Partly, this is because the controls on hillslope-scale snowmelt-runoff generation are potentially extensive and their hierarchy is poorly understood. Understanding the relative importance of controls (e.g. topography, vegetation, land use, soil characteristics, and precipitation dynamics) on runoff response is necessary for model development, spatial extrapolation, and runoff...

Seasonal dynamics of ant community structure in the Moroccan Argan Forest.

Science.gov (United States)

El Keroumi, Abderrahim; Naamani, Khalid; Soummane, Hassna; Dahbi, Abdallah

2012-01-01

In this study we describe the structure and composition of ant communities in the endemic Moroccan Argan forest, using pitfall traps sampling technique throughout the four seasons between May 2006 and February 2007. The study focused on two distinct climatic habitats within the Essaouira Argan forest, a semi-continental site at Lahssinate, and a coastal site at Boutazarte. Thirteen different ant species were identified, belonging to seven genera. Monomorium subopacum Smith and Tapinoma simrothi Krausse-Heldrungen (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) were the most abundant and behaviorally dominant ant species in the arganeraie. In addition, more specimens were captured in the semi-continental site than in the coastal area. However, no significant difference was observed in species richness, evenness, or diversity between both sites. Composition and community structure showed clear seasonal dynamics. The number of species, their abundance, their diversity, and their evenness per Argan tree were significantly dissimilar among seasons. The richness (except between summer and autumn), and the abundance and the evenness of ant species among communities, showed a significant difference between the dry period (summer and spring) and the rainy period (winter and autumn). Higher abundance and richness values occurred in the dry period of the year. Ant species dominance and seasonal climatic variations in the arganeraie might be among the main factors affecting the composition, structure, and foraging activity of ant communities. This study, together with recent findings on ant predation behavior below Argan trees, highlights the promising use of dominant ant species as potential agents of Mediterranean fruit fly bio-control in the Argan forest and surrounding ecosystems.

Seasonal dynamics in colored dissolved organic matter in the Mediterranean Sea: Patterns and drivers

Science.gov (United States)

Xing, Xiaogang; Claustre, Hervé; Wang, Haili; Poteau, Antoine; D`Ortenzio, Fabrizio

2014-01-01

Two autonomous profiling “Bio-Argo” floats were deployed in the northwestern and eastern sub-basins of the Mediterranean Sea in 2008. They recorded at high vertical (1 m) and temporal (5 day) resolution, the vertical distribution and seasonal variation of colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM), as well as of chlorophyll-a concentration and hydrological variables. The CDOM standing stock presented a clear seasonal dynamics with the progressive summer formation and winter destruction of subsurface CDOM maxima (YSM, for Yellow Substance Maximum). It was argued that subsurface CDOM is a by-product of phytoplankton, based on two main characteristics, (1) the YSM was located at the same depth than the deep chlorophyll maximum (DCM) and (2) the CDOM increased in summer parallels the decline in chlorophyll-a. These observations suggested an indirect but tight coupling between subsurface CDOM and phytoplankton via microbial activity or planktonic foodweb interactions. Moreover, the surface CDOM variations observed both by floats and MODIS displayed different seasonal dynamics from what recorded at subsurface one. This implies that CDOM standing stock can be hardly detected by satellite. It is worthnoting that surface CDOM was found to be more related to the sea surface temperature (SST) than chlorophyll-a concentration, suggesting its physical origin, in contrast to the biological origin of YSM and subsurface standing stocks.

Effect of Prophylactic Ankle-Brace Use During a High School Competitive Basketball Season on Dynamic Postural Control.

Science.gov (United States)

Crockett, Nathan J; Sandrey, Michelle A

2015-08-01

Few studies have evaluated the long-term effects of prophylactic ankle-brace use during a sport season. To determine the effects of prophylactic ankle-brace use during a high school basketball season on dynamic postural control and functional tests. Prospective repeated-measures design. High school athletic facility. 21 healthy high school basketball athletes (13 girls, 8 boys). The order of testing was randomized using the Star Excursion Balance Test (SEBT) for posteromedial (PM), medial (M), and anteromedial (AM) directions and 3 functional tests (FT) consisting of the single-leg crossover hop, single-leg vertical jump, and the single-leg 6-m hop for time at pre-, mid-, and postseason. After pretesting, the ankle brace was worn on both limbs during the entire 16-wk competitive basketball season. SEBT for PM, M, and AM and 3 single-leg FTs. Dynamic postural control using the SEBT and the 3 FTs improved over time, notably from pretest to posttest. The left limb was different from the right limb during the single-leg vertical jump. Effect sizes were large for pretest to posttest for the 3 SEBT directions and 2 of the 3 FTs. The 16-wk basketball prophylactic ankle-brace intervention significantly improved dynamic postural control and single-limb FTs over time.

Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Surface Water Extent from Three Decades of Seasonally Continuous Landsat Time Series at Subcontinental Scale

Science.gov (United States)

Tulbure, M. G.; Broich, M.; Stehman, Stephen V.

2016-06-01

Surface water is a critical resource in semi-arid areas. The Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) of Australia, one of the largest semi-arid basins in the world is aiming to set a worldwide example of how to balance multiple interests (i.e. environment, agriculture and urban use), but has suffered significant water shrinkages during the Millennium Drought (1999-2009), followed by extensive flooding. Baseline information and systematic quantification of surface water (SW) extent and flooding dynamics in space and time are needed for managing SW resources across the basin but are currently lacking. To synoptically quantify changes in SW extent and flooding dynamics over MDB, we used seasonally continuous Landsat TM and ETM+ data (1986 - 2011) and generic machine learning algorithms. We further mapped flooded forest at a riparian forest site that experienced severe tree dieback due to changes in flooding regime. We used a stratified sampling design to assess the accuracy of the SW product across time. Accuracy assessment yielded an overall classification accuracy of 99.94%, with producer's and user's accuracy of SW of 85.4% and 97.3%, respectively. Overall accuracy was the same for Landsat 5 and 7 data but user's and producer's accuracy of water were higher for Landsat 7 than 5 data and stable over time. Our validated results document a rapid loss in SW bodies. The number, size, and total area of SW showed high seasonal variability with highest numbers in winter and lowest numbers in summer. SW extent per season per year showed high interannual and seasonal variability, with low seasonal variability during the Millennium Drought. Examples of current uses of the new dataset will be presented and include (1) assessing ecosystem response to flooding with implications for environmental water releases, one of the largest investment in environment in Australia; (2) quantifying drivers of SW dynamics (e.g. climate, human activity); (3) quantifying changes in SW dynamics and

Analysis of Economic Burden of Seasonal Influenza: An Actuarial Based Conceptual Model

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S. S. N. Perera

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Analysing the economic burden of the seasonal influenza is highly essential due to the large number of outbreaks in recent years. Mathematical and actuarial models can be considered as management tools to understand the dynamical behavior, predict the risk, and compute it. This study is an attempt to develop conceptual model to investigate the economic burden due to seasonal influenza. The compartment SIS (susceptible-infected-susceptible model is used to capture the dynamical behavior of influenza. Considering the current investment and future medical care expenditure as premium payment and benefit (claim, respectively, the insurance and actuarial based conceptual model is proposed to model the present economic burden due to the spread of influenza. Simulation is carried out to demonstrate the variation of the present economic burden with respect to model parameters. The sensitivity of the present economic burden is studied with respect to the risk of disease spread. The basic reproduction is used to identify the risk of disease spread. Impact of the seasonality is studied by introducing the seasonally varying infection rate. The proposed model provides theoretical background to investigate the economic burden of seasonal influenza.

Examining secular trend  and seasonality in count data using dynamic generalized linear modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lundbye-Christensen, Søren; Dethlefsen, Claus; Gorst-Rasmussen, Anders

series regression model for Poisson counts. It differs in allowing the regression coefficients to vary gradually over time in a random fashion. Data  In the period January 1980 to 1999, 17,989 incidents of acute myocardial infarction were recorded in the county of Northern Jutland, Denmark. Records were......Aims  Time series of incidence counts often show secular trends and seasonal patterns. We present a model for incidence counts capable of handling a possible gradual change in growth rates and seasonal patterns, serial correlation and overdispersion. Methods  The model resembles an ordinary time...... updated daily. Results  The model with a seasonal pattern and an approximately linear trend was fitted to the data, and diagnostic plots indicate a good model fit. The analysis with the dynamic model revealed peaks coinciding with influenza epidemics. On average the peak-to-trough ratio is estimated...

The hidden seasonality of the rare biosphere in coastal marine bacterioplankton

KAUST Repository

Alonso-Sáez, Laura

2015-04-08

Summary: Rare microbial taxa are increasingly recognized to play key ecological roles, but knowledge of their spatio-temporal dynamics is lacking. In a time-series study in coastal waters, we detected 83 bacterial lineages with significant seasonality, including environmentally relevant taxa where little ecological information was available. For example, Verrucomicrobia had recurrent maxima in summer, while the Flavobacteria NS4, NS5 and NS2b clades had contrasting seasonal niches. Among the seasonal taxa, only 4 were abundant and persistent, 20 cycled between rare and abundant and, remarkably, most of them (59) were always rare (contributing <1% of total reads). We thus demonstrate that seasonal patterns in marine bacterioplankton are largely driven by lineages that never sustain abundant populations. A fewer number of rare taxa (20) also produced episodic \\'blooms\\', and these events were highly synchronized, mostly occurring on a single month. The recurrent seasonal growth and loss of rare bacteria opens new perspectives on the temporal dynamics of the rare biosphere, hitherto mainly characterized by dormancy and episodes of \\'boom and bust\\', as envisioned by the seed-bank hypothesis. The predictable patterns of seasonal reoccurrence are relevant for understanding the ecology of rare bacteria, which may include key players for the functioning of marine ecosystems. © 2015 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Seasonal dynamics of ectomycorrhizal fungus assemblages on oak seedlings in the southeastern Appalachian Mountains

Science.gov (United States)

John F. Walker; Orson K. Jr. Miller; Jonathan L. Horton

2008-01-01

The potential for seasonal dynamics in ectomycorrhizal (EM) fungal assemblages has important implications for the ecology of both the host trees and the fungal associates. We compared EM fungus distributions on root systems of out-planted oak seedlings at two sites in mixed southeastern Appalachian Mountain forests at the Coweeta Hydrologic Laboratory in North Carolina...

Demand for seasonal gas storage in northwest Europe until 2030. Simulation results with a dynamic model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Joode, J.; Oezdemir, Oe.

2010-01-01

The fact that depletion of indigenous gas production increases gas import dependency is widely known and accepted. However, there is considerable less attention for the implications of indigenous resource depletion for the provision of seasonal flexibility. The traditionally largest source of seasonal flexibility in Europe is indigenous gas production, mainly based in the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. With the depletion of indigenous sources the market increasingly needs to rely on other sources for seasonal flexibility, such as gas storage facilities. We investigate the future need for gas storage as a source for seasonal flexibility provision using a dynamic gas market model (GASTALE) in which different potential sources for seasonal flexibility - gas production, imports via pipeline, LNG imports and storage facilities - compete with each other in a market-based environment. The inclusion of seasonal flexibility properties in a gas market model allows a more complex analysis of seasonal flexibility issues than previously documented in literature. This is demonstrated in an analysis of the future demand for gas storage in northwestern Europe until 2030. Our results indicate that there is substantial need for additional gas storage facilities and thus supports current project proposals for new investment in gas storage facilities. (author)

The Role of Stream Water Carbon Dynamics and Export in the Carbon Balance of a Tropical Seasonal Rainforest, Southwest China

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Zhou, Wen-Jun; Zhang, Yi-Ping; Schaefer, Douglas A.; Sha, Li-Qing; Deng, Yun; Deng, Xiao-Bao; Dai, Kai-Jie

2013-01-01

A two-year study (2009 ∼ 2010) was carried out to investigate the dynamics of different carbon (C) forms, and the role of stream export in the C balance of a 23.4-ha headwater catchment in a tropical seasonal rainforest at Xishuangbanna (XSBN), southwest China. The seasonal volumetric weighted mean (VWM) concentrations of total inorganic C (TIC) and dissolved inorganic C (DIC) were higher, and particulate inorganic C (PIC) and organic C (POC) were lower, in the dry season than the rainy season, while the VWM concentrations of total organic C (TOC) and dissolved organic C (DOC) were similar between seasons. With increased monthly stream discharge and stream water temperature (SWT), only TIC and DIC concentrations decreased significantly. The most important C form in stream export was DIC, accounting for 51.8% of the total C (TC) export; DOC, POC, and PIC accounted for 21.8%, 14.9%, and 11.5% of the TC export, respectively. Dynamics of C flux were closely related to stream discharge, with the greatest export during the rainy season. C export in the headwater stream was 47.1 kg C ha−1 yr−1, about 2.85% of the annual net ecosystem exchange. This finding indicates that stream export represented a minor contribution to the C balance in this tropical seasonal rainforest. PMID:23437195

The role of stream water carbon dynamics and export in the carbon balance of a tropical seasonal rainforest, southwest China.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wen-Jun Zhou

Full Text Available A two-year study (2009 ~ 2010 was carried out to investigate the dynamics of different carbon (C forms, and the role of stream export in the C balance of a 23.4-ha headwater catchment in a tropical seasonal rainforest at Xishuangbanna (XSBN, southwest China. The seasonal volumetric weighted mean (VWM concentrations of total inorganic C (TIC and dissolved inorganic C (DIC were higher, and particulate inorganic C (PIC and organic C (POC were lower, in the dry season than the rainy season, while the VWM concentrations of total organic C (TOC and dissolved organic C (DOC were similar between seasons. With increased monthly stream discharge and stream water temperature (SWT, only TIC and DIC concentrations decreased significantly. The most important C form in stream export was DIC, accounting for 51.8% of the total C (TC export; DOC, POC, and PIC accounted for 21.8%, 14.9%, and 11.5% of the TC export, respectively. Dynamics of C flux were closely related to stream discharge, with the greatest export during the rainy season. C export in the headwater stream was 47.1 kg C ha(-1 yr(-1, about 2.85% of the annual net ecosystem exchange. This finding indicates that stream export represented a minor contribution to the C balance in this tropical seasonal rainforest.

Seasonal and interannual dynamics of soil microbial biomass and available nitrogen in an alpine meadow in the eastern part of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China

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Xu, Bo; Wang, Jinniu; Wu, Ning; Wu, Yan; Shi, Fusun

2018-01-01

Soil microbial activity varies seasonally in frozen alpine soils during cold seasons and plays a crucial role in available N pool accumulation in soil. The intra- and interannual patterns of microbial and nutrient dynamics reflect the influences of changing weather factors, and thus provide important insights into the biogeochemical cycles and ecological functions of ecosystems. We documented the seasonal and interannual dynamics of soil microbial and available N in an alpine meadow in the eastern part of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China, between April 2011 and October 2013. Soil was collected in the middle of each month and analyzed for water content, microbial biomass C (MBC) and N (MBN), dissolved organic C and N, and inorganic N. Soil microbial community composition was measured by the dilution-plate method. Fungi and actinomycetes dominated the microbial community during the nongrowing seasons, and the proportion of bacteria increased considerably during the early growing seasons. Trends of consistently increasing MBC and available N pools were observed during the nongrowing seasons. MBC sharply declined during soil thaw and was accompanied by a peak in available N pool. Induced by changes in soil temperatures, significant shifts in the structures and functions of microbial communities were observed during the winter-spring transition and largely contributed to microbial reduction. The divergent seasonal dynamics of different N forms showed a complementary nutrient supply pattern during the growing season. Similarities between the interannual dynamics of microbial biomass and available N pools were observed, and soil temperature and water conditions were the primary environmental factors driving interannual fluctuations. Owing to the changes in climate, seasonal soil microbial activities and nutrient supply patterns are expected to change further, and these changes may have crucial implications for the productivity and biodiversity of alpine ecosystems.

Seasonal, lunar and tidal control of ichthyoplankton dynamics at the interface between a temperate estuary and adjacent coastal waters (western Portugal

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Ana Lígia Primo

2011-11-01

Full Text Available Influence of season, lunar-tide cycle and tide on ichthyoplankton at the interface between Mondego estuary and the adjacent coast and on up-estuary transport was evaluated. Seasonal samples were collected at a fixed station at the mouth of the estuary during diel cycles, at neap and spring tides. Additionally, four sampling stations along the estuary were assessed. Pomatoschistus spp. was the main estuarine taxon, while Sardina pilchardus and Parablennius pilicornis were the most important marine species. Ichthyoplankton entrance and transport along the estuary presented a seasonal pattern with higher densities during summer. Lunar-tide cycle also represented an important influence, structuring communities that reach the estuary and their subsequent distribution. Solea senegalensis and Sardina pilchardus seemed to take advantage of spring tides to enter the estuary. S. pilchardus appear to be using tides to move upstream of the estuary. Ichthyoplankton entrance in the estuary seemed related to species spawning period, while its distribution within the estuary depends on in situ spawning and on the capacity of species to counteract currents and river flow. The present study provides a better understanding of ichthyoplankton dynamics at the interface of two coastal systems, reinforcing knowledge of the lunar-tide cycle influence on ichthyoplankton communities.

Mechanistic understanding of human-wildlife conflict through a novel application of dynamic occupancy models.

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Goswami, Varun R; Medhi, Kamal; Nichols, James D; Oli, Madan K

2015-08-01

Crop and livestock depredation by wildlife is a primary driver of human-wildlife conflict, a problem that threatens the coexistence of people and wildlife globally. Understanding mechanisms that underlie depredation patterns holds the key to mitigating conflicts across time and space. However, most studies do not consider imperfect detection and reporting of conflicts, which may lead to incorrect inference regarding its spatiotemporal drivers. We applied dynamic occupancy models to elephant crop depredation data from India between 2005 and 2011 to estimate crop depredation occurrence and model its underlying dynamics as a function of spatiotemporal covariates while accounting for imperfect detection of conflicts. The probability of detecting conflicts was consistently year). The probability of crop depredation occurrence ranged from 0.29 (SE 0.09) to 0.96 (SE 0.04). The probability that sites raided by elephants in primary period t would not be raided in primary period t + 1 varied with elevation gradient in different seasons and was influenced negatively by mean rainfall and village density and positively by distance to forests. Negative effects of rainfall variation and distance to forests best explained variation in the probability that sites not raided by elephants in primary period t would be raided in primary period t + 1. With our novel application of occupancy models, we teased apart the spatiotemporal drivers of conflicts from factors that influence how they are observed, thereby allowing more reliable inference on mechanisms underlying observed conflict patterns. We found that factors associated with increased crop accessibility and availability (e.g., distance to forests and rainfall patterns) were key drivers of elephant crop depredation dynamics. Such an understanding is essential for rigorous prediction of future conflicts, a critical requirement for effective conflict management in the context of increasing human-wildlife interactions. © 2015

Density and Seasonal Dynamics of Bemisia tabaci (Gennadius) Mediterranean on Common Crops and Weeds around Cotton Fields in Northern China

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhang, Xiao-ming; Yang, Nian-wan; Wan, Fang-hao

2014-01-01

theophrasti Medicus), sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.), sweet potato (Ipomoea batatas L.), soybean (Glycine max L.), and maize (Zea mays L.). The whitefly species identity was repeatedly tested and confirmed; seasonal dynamics on the various host plants was standardized by the quartile method. B. tabaci MED......The density seasonal dynamics of Bemisia tabaci MED were evaluated over two-years in a cotton-growing area in Langfang, Hebei Province, northern China on cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) and six other, co-occurring common plants: common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.), piemarker (Abutilon...

Remotely Sensed Northern Vegetation Response to Changing Climate: Growing Season and Productivity Perspective

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Ganguly, S.; Park, Taejin; Choi, Sungho; Bi, Jian; Knyazikhin, Yuri; Myneni, Ranga

2016-01-01

Vegetation growing season and maximum photosynthetic state determine spatiotemporal variability of seasonal total gross primary productivity of vegetation. Recent warming induced impacts accelerate shifts on growing season and physiological status over Northern vegetated land. Thus, understanding and quantifying these changes are very important. Here, we first investigate how vegetation growing season and maximum photosynthesis state are evolved and how such components contribute on inter-annual variation of seasonal total gross primary productivity. Furthermore, seasonally different response of northern vegetation to changing temperature and water availability is also investigated. We utilized both long-term remotely sensed data to extract larger scale growing season metrics (growing season start, end and duration) and productivity (i.e., growing season summed vegetation index, GSSVI) for answering these questions. We find that regionally diverged growing season shift and maximum photosynthetic state contribute differently characterized productivity inter-annual variability and trend. Also seasonally different response of vegetation gives different view of spatially varying interaction between vegetation and climate. These results highlight spatially and temporally varying vegetation dynamics and are reflective of biome-specific responses of northern vegetation to changing climate.

Short-term community dynamics in seasonal and hyperseasonal cerrados

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MV. Cianciaruso

Full Text Available In South America, the largest seasonal savanna region is the Brazilian cerrado. Our aim was to study temporal changes in some community descriptors, such as floristic composition, richness, species density, plant density, and cylindrical volume, in a seasonal cerrado, comparing it to a nearby hyperseasonal cerrado. In four different seasons, we placed randomly ten 1 m² quadrats in each vegetation form and sampled all the vascular plants. Seasonal changes in floristic composition, species density, and plant density were less pronounced in the seasonal than in the hyperseasonal cerrado. Floristic similarity between the vegetation forms was lower when the hyperseasonal cerrado was waterlogged. Richness and species density were higher in the seasonal cerrado, which reached its biomass peak at mid rainy season. The hyperseasonal cerrado, in turn, reached its biomass peak at early rainy season and, despite the waterlogging, maintained it until late rainy season. In the hyperseasonal cerrado, waterlogging acts as an environmental filter restricting the number of cerrado species able to withstand it. The seasonal cerrado community was more stable than the hyperseasonal one. Our results corroborated the idea that changes in the environmental filters will affect floristic composition and community structure in savannas.

Seasonal Snowpack Dynamics and Runoff in a Maritime Forested Basin, Niigata, Japan

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Whitaker, A. C.; Sugiyama, H.

2005-12-01

Seasonal snowpack dynamics are described through field measurements under contrasting canopy conditions for a mountainous catchment in the Japan Sea region. Microclimatic data, snow accumulation, albedo and lysimeter runoff is given through three complete winter seasons 2002-05 in: (1) mature cedar stand, (2) larch stand, and (3) regenerating cedar stand or opening. The accumulation and melt of seasonal snowpack strongly influences streamflow runoff during December to May, including winter base-flow, mid-winter melt, rain-on-snow, and diurnal peaks driven by radiation melt in spring. Lysimeter runoff at all sites is characterised by constant ground melt of 0.8-1.0 mm/day. Rapid response to mid-winter melt or rainfall shows that the snowpack remains in a ripe or near-ripe condition throughout the snowcover season. Hourly and daily lysimeter discharge was greatest during rain-on-snow with the majority of runoff due to rainfall passing through the snowpack as opposed to snowmelt. For both rain-on-snow and radiation melt events lysimeter discharge was generally greatest at the open site, although there were exceptions such as during interception melt events. During radiation melt instantaneous discharge was up to 4.0 times greater in the opening compared to the mature cedar, and 48-hour discharge was up to 2.5 times greater. Perhaps characteristic of maritime climates, forest interception melt is shown to be important in addition to sublimation in reducing snow accumulation beneath dense canopies. While sublimation represents a loss from the catchment water balance, interception melt percolates through the snowpack and contributes to soil moisture during the winter season. Strong differences in microclimate and snowpack albedo persisted between cedar, larch and open sites, and it is suggested further work is needed to account for this in hydrological simulation models.

Dynamic changes in left ventricular mass and in fat-free mass in top-level athletes during the competitive season.

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D'Ascenzi, Flavio; Pelliccia, Antonio; Cameli, Matteo; Lisi, Matteo; Natali, Benedetta Maria; Focardi, Marta; Giorgi, Andrea; D'Urbano, Giorgio; Causarano, Andrea; Bonifazi, Marco; Mondillo, Sergio

2015-01-01

Previous cross-sectional studies have demonstrated that fat-free mass (FFM) is an important determinant of left ventricular mass (LVM) in athletes. However, cross-sectional investigations have not the ability to detect the dynamic adaptation occurring with training. We hypothesized that LVM adapts concurrently with the increase of FFM induced by exercise conditioning. We sought to study the relationship between the variations of LVM and of FFM occurring in top-level soccer players during the season. Twenty-three male top-level athletes were recruited. LVM was assessed by echocardiography and FFM by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Serial measurements were performed pre-season, after 1 month, at mid- and end-season, and after 2 months of detraining. LVM significantly increased at mid-season versus pre-season values, reaching the highest value at the end of the season (p FFM significantly increased (p FFM (R = 0.36, p = 0.005; R = 0.35, p = 0.005, respectively). When ΔLVM index was set as dependent variable, the only independent predictor was ΔFFM (R = 0.87, p = 0.002). Changes in LVM occur in close association with changes in FFM, suggesting that the left ventricle adapts concurrently with the increase of the metabolically active tissue induced by training, i.e. the FFM. Therefore, the dynamic changes in FFM and LVM may reflect a physiological adaptation induced by intensive training. © The European Society of Cardiology 2013 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

Host and pathogen ecology drive the seasonal dynamics of a fungal disease, white-nose syndrome.

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Langwig, Kate E; Frick, Winifred F; Reynolds, Rick; Parise, Katy L; Drees, Kevin P; Hoyt, Joseph R; Cheng, Tina L; Kunz, Thomas H; Foster, Jeffrey T; Kilpatrick, A Marm

2015-01-22

Seasonal patterns in pathogen transmission can influence the impact of disease on populations and the speed of spatial spread. Increases in host contact rates or births drive seasonal epidemics in some systems, but other factors may occasionally override these influences. White-nose syndrome, caused by the emerging fungal pathogen Pseudogymnoascus destructans, is spreading across North America and threatens several bat species with extinction. We examined patterns and drivers of seasonal transmission of P. destructans by measuring infection prevalence and pathogen loads in six bat species at 30 sites across the eastern United States. Bats became transiently infected in autumn, and transmission spiked in early winter when bats began hibernating. Nearly all bats in six species became infected by late winter when infection intensity peaked. In summer, despite high contact rates and a birth pulse, most bats cleared infections and prevalence dropped to zero. These data suggest the dominant driver of seasonal transmission dynamics was a change in host physiology, specifically hibernation. Our study is the first, to the best of our knowledge, to describe the seasonality of transmission in this emerging wildlife disease. The timing of infection and fungal growth resulted in maximal population impacts, but only moderate rates of spatial spread. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Detecting signals of seasonal influenza severity through age dynamics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lee, Elizabeth C.; Viboud, Cécile; Simonsen, Lone

2015-01-01

stages of an outbreak. To address the limitations of traditional indicators, we propose a novel severity index based on influenza age dynamics estimated from routine physician diagnosis data that can be used retrospectively and for early warning. METHODS: We developed a quantitative 'ground truth......' severity benchmark that synthesizes multiple traditional severity indicators from publicly available influenza surveillance data in the United States. Observing that the age distribution of cases may signal severity early in an epidemic, we constructed novel retrospective and early warning severity indexes....... The retrospective index was well correlated with the severity benchmark and correctly identified the two most severe seasons. The early warning index performance varied, but it projected 2007-08 as relatively severe 10 weeks prior to the epidemic peak. Influenza severity varied significantly among states within...

Seasonal Dynamics of Water Use Strategy of Two Salix Shrubs in Alpine Sandy Land, Tibetan Plateau.

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Zhu, Yajuan; Wang, Guojie; Li, Renqiang

2016-01-01

Water is a limiting factor for plant growth and vegetation dynamics in alpine sandy land of the Tibetan Plateau, especially with the increasing frequency of extreme precipitation events and drought caused by climate change. Therefore, a relatively stable water source from either deeper soil profiles or ground water is necessary for plant growth. Understanding the water use strategy of dominant species in the alpine sandy land ecosystem is important for vegetative rehabilitation and ecological restoration. The stable isotope methodology of δD, δ18O, and δ13C was used to determine main water source and long-term water use efficiency of Salix psammophila and S. cheilophila, two dominant shrubs on interdune of alpine sandy land in northeastern Tibetan Plateau. The root systems of two Salix shrubs were investigated to determine their distribution pattern. The results showed that S. psammophila and S. cheilophila absorbed soil water at different soil depths or ground water in different seasons, depending on water availability and water use strategy. Salix psammophila used ground water during the growing season and relied on shallow soil water recharged by rain in summer. Salix cheilophila used ground water in spring and summer, but relied on shallow soil water recharged by rain in spring and deep soil water recharged by ground water in fall. The two shrubs had dimorphic root systems, which is coincident with their water use strategy. Higher biomass of fine roots in S. psammophila and longer fine roots in S. cheilophila facilitated to absorb water in deeper soil layers. The long-term water use efficiency of two Salix shrubs increased during the dry season in spring. The long-term water use efficiency was higher in S. psammophila than in S. cheilophila, as the former species is better adapted to semiarid climate of alpine sandy land.

Nutrient Dynamics of Estuarine Invertebrates Are Shaped by Feeding Guild Rather than Seasonal River Flow.

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Kelly Ortega-Cisneros

Full Text Available This study aimed to determine the variability of carbon and nitrogen elemental content, stoichiometry and diet proportions of invertebrates in two sub-tropical estuaries in South Africa experiencing seasonal changes in rainfall and river inflow. The elemental ratios and stable isotopes of abiotic sources, zooplankton and macrozoobenthos taxa were analyzed over a dry/wet seasonal cycle. Nutrient content (C, N and stoichiometry of suspended particulate matter exhibited significant spatio-temporal variations in both estuaries, which were explained by the variability in river inflow. Sediment particulate matter (%C, %N and C:N was also influenced by the variability in river flow but to a lesser extent. The nutrient content and ratios of the analyzed invertebrates did not significantly vary among seasons with the exception of the copepod Pseudodiaptomus spp. (C:N and the tanaid Apseudes digitalis (%N, C:N. These changes did not track the seasonal variations of the suspended or sediment particulate matter. Our results suggest that invertebrates managed to maintain their stoichiometry independent of the seasonality in river flow. A significant variability in nitrogen content among estuarine invertebrates was recorded, with highest % N recorded from predators and lowest %N from detritivores. Due to the otherwise general lack of seasonal differences in elemental content and stoichiometry, feeding guild was a major factor shaping the nutrient dynamics of the estuarine invertebrates. The nutrient richer suspended particulate matter was the preferred food source over sediment particulate matter for most invertebrate consumers in many, but not all seasons. The most distinct preference for suspended POM as a food source was apparent from the temporarily open/closed system after the estuary had breached, highlighting the importance of river flow as a driver of invertebrate nutrient dynamics under extreme events conditions. Moreover, our data showed that

Nutrient Dynamics of Estuarine Invertebrates Are Shaped by Feeding Guild Rather than Seasonal River Flow.

Science.gov (United States)

Ortega-Cisneros, Kelly; Scharler, Ursula M

2015-01-01

This study aimed to determine the variability of carbon and nitrogen elemental content, stoichiometry and diet proportions of invertebrates in two sub-tropical estuaries in South Africa experiencing seasonal changes in rainfall and river inflow. The elemental ratios and stable isotopes of abiotic sources, zooplankton and macrozoobenthos taxa were analyzed over a dry/wet seasonal cycle. Nutrient content (C, N) and stoichiometry of suspended particulate matter exhibited significant spatio-temporal variations in both estuaries, which were explained by the variability in river inflow. Sediment particulate matter (%C, %N and C:N) was also influenced by the variability in river flow but to a lesser extent. The nutrient content and ratios of the analyzed invertebrates did not significantly vary among seasons with the exception of the copepod Pseudodiaptomus spp. (C:N) and the tanaid Apseudes digitalis (%N, C:N). These changes did not track the seasonal variations of the suspended or sediment particulate matter. Our results suggest that invertebrates managed to maintain their stoichiometry independent of the seasonality in river flow. A significant variability in nitrogen content among estuarine invertebrates was recorded, with highest % N recorded from predators and lowest %N from detritivores. Due to the otherwise general lack of seasonal differences in elemental content and stoichiometry, feeding guild was a major factor shaping the nutrient dynamics of the estuarine invertebrates. The nutrient richer suspended particulate matter was the preferred food source over sediment particulate matter for most invertebrate consumers in many, but not all seasons. The most distinct preference for suspended POM as a food source was apparent from the temporarily open/closed system after the estuary had breached, highlighting the importance of river flow as a driver of invertebrate nutrient dynamics under extreme events conditions. Moreover, our data showed that estuarine

Dynamics of Necrophagous Insect and Tissue Bacteria for Postmortem Interval Estimation During the Warm Season in Romania.

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Iancu, Lavinia; Sahlean, Tiberiu; Purcarea, Cristina

2016-01-01

The estimation of postmortem interval (PMI) is affected by several factors including the cause of death, the place where the body lay after death, and the weather conditions during decomposition. Given the climatic differences among biogeographic locations, the understanding of necrophagous insect species biology and ecology is required when estimating PMI. The current experimental model was developed in Romania during the warm season in an outdoor location. The aim of the study was to identify the necrophagous insect species diversity and dynamics, and to detect the bacterial species present during decomposition in order to determine if their presence or incidence timing could be useful to estimate PMI. The decomposition process of domestic swine carcasses was monitored throughout a 14-wk period (10 July-10 October 2013), along with a daily record of meteorological parameters. The chronological succession of necrophagous entomofauna comprised nine Diptera species, with the dominant presence of Chrysomya albiceps (Wiedemann 1819) (Calliphoridae), while only two Coleoptera species were identified, Dermestes undulatus (L. 1758) and Creophilus maxillosus Brahm 1970. The bacterial diversity and dynamics from the mouth and rectum tissues, and third-instar dipteran larvae were identified using denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis analysis and sequencing of bacterial 16S rRNA gene fragments. Throughout the decomposition process, two main bacterial chronological groups were differentiated, represented by Firmicutes and Gammaproteobacteria. Twenty-six taxa from the rectal cavity and 22 from the mouth cavity were identified, with the dominant phylum in both these cavities corresponding to Firmicutes. The present data strengthen the postmortem entomological and microbial information for the warm season in this temperate-continental area, as well as the role of microbes in carcass decomposition. © The Authors 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of

Understanding and Modeling Teams As Dynamical Systems

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Gorman, Jamie C.; Dunbar, Terri A.; Grimm, David; Gipson, Christina L.

2017-01-01

By its very nature, much of teamwork is distributed across, and not stored within, interdependent people working toward a common goal. In this light, we advocate a systems perspective on teamwork that is based on general coordination principles that are not limited to cognitive, motor, and physiological levels of explanation within the individual. In this article, we present a framework for understanding and modeling teams as dynamical systems and review our empirical findings on teams as dynamical systems. We proceed by (a) considering the question of why study teams as dynamical systems, (b) considering the meaning of dynamical systems concepts (attractors; perturbation; synchronization; fractals) in the context of teams, (c) describe empirical studies of team coordination dynamics at the perceptual-motor, cognitive-behavioral, and cognitive-neurophysiological levels of analysis, and (d) consider the theoretical and practical implications of this approach, including new kinds of explanations of human performance and real-time analysis and performance modeling. Throughout our discussion of the topics we consider how to describe teamwork using equations and/or modeling techniques that describe the dynamics. Finally, we consider what dynamical equations and models do and do not tell us about human performance in teams and suggest future research directions in this area. PMID:28744231

Satellite view of seasonal greenness trends and controls in South Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Sarmah, Sangeeta; Jia, Gensuo; Zhang, Anzhi

2018-03-01

South Asia (SA) has been considered one of the most remarkable regions for changing vegetation greenness, accompanying its major expansion of agricultural activities, especially irrigated farming. The influence of the monsoon climate on the seasonal trends and anomalies of vegetation greenness is poorly understood in this area. Herein, we used the satellite-based Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to investigate various spatiotemporal patterns in vegetation activity during summer and winter monsoon (SM and WM) seasons and among irrigated croplands (IC), rainfed croplands (RC), and natural vegetation (NV) areas during 1982–2013. Seasonal NDVI variations with climatic factors (precipitation and temperature) and land use and cover changes (LUCC) have also been investigated. This study demonstrates that the seasonal dynamics of vegetation could improve the detailed understanding of vegetation productivity over the region. We found distinct greenness trends between two monsoon seasons and among the major land use/cover classes. Winter monsoons contributed greater variability to the overall vegetation dynamics of SA. Major greening occurred due to the increased productivity over irrigated croplands during the winter monsoon season; meanwhile, browning trends were prominent over NV areas during the same season. Maximum temperatures had been increasing tremendously during the WM season; however, the precipitation trend was not significant over SA. Both the climate variability and LUCC revealed coupled effects on the long term NDVI trends in NV areas, especially in the hilly regions, whereas anthropogenic activities (agricultural advancements) played a pivotal role in the rest of the area. Until now, advanced cultivation techniques have proven to be beneficial for the region in terms of the productivity of croplands. However, the crop productivity is at risk under climate change.

Seasonal and inter-annual dynamics of growth, non-structural carbohydrates and C stable isotopes in a Mediterranean beech forest.

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Scartazza, Andrea; Moscatello, Stefano; Matteucci, Giorgio; Battistelli, Alberto; Brugnoli, Enrico

2013-07-01

Seasonal and inter-annual dynamics of growth, non-structural carbohydrates (NSC) and carbon isotope composition (δ(13)C) of NSC were studied in a beech forest of Central Italy over a 2-year period characterized by different environmental conditions. The net C assimilated by forest trees was mainly used to sustain growth early in the season and to accumulate storage carbohydrates in trunk and root wood in the later part of the season, before leaf shedding. Growth and NSC concentration dynamics were only slightly affected by the reduced soil water content (SWC) during the drier year. Conversely, the carbon isotope analysis on NSC revealed seasonal and inter-annual variations of photosynthetic and post-carboxylation fractionation processes, with a significant increase in δ(13)C of wood and leaf soluble sugars in the drier summer year than in the wetter one. The highly significant correlation between δ(13)C of leaf soluble sugars and SWC suggests a decrease of the canopy C isotope discrimination and, hence, an increased water-use efficiency with decreasing soil water availability. This may be a relevant trait for maintaining an acceptable plant water status and a relatively high C sink capacity during dry seasonal periods. Our results suggest a short- to medium-term homeostatic response of the Collelongo beech stand to variations in water availability and solar radiation, indicating that this Mediterranean forest was able to adjust carbon-water balance in order to prevent C depletion and to sustain plant growth and reserve accumulation during relatively dry seasons.

Understanding the Entrepreneurial Process: a Dynamic Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vânia Maria Jorge Nassif

2010-04-01

Full Text Available There is considerable predominance in the adoption of perspectives based on characteristics in research into entrepreneurship. However, most studies describe the entrepreneur from a static or snapshot approach; very few adopt a dynamic perspective. The aim of this study is to contribute to the enhancement of knowledge concerning entrepreneurial process dynamics through an understanding of the values, characteristics and actions of the entrepreneur over time. By focusing on personal attributes, we have developed a framework that shows the importance of affective and cognitive aspects of entrepreneurs and the way that they evolve during the development of their business.

A Lotka-Volterra competition model with seasonal succession.

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Hsu, Sze-Bi; Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

2012-01-01

A complete classification for the global dynamics of a Lotka-Volterra two species competition model with seasonal succession is obtained via the stability analysis of equilibria and the theory of monotone dynamical systems. The effects of two death rates in the bad season and the proportion of the good season on the competition outcomes are also discussed. © Springer-Verlag 2011

High resolution carbon isotope of Crassostrea cuttakensis: A proxy for seasonally varying carbon dynamics in a tropical delta-estuary system

Science.gov (United States)

Sreemany, Arpita

2017-04-01

The exponential increase in the atmospheric CO2 concentration and global temperature is becoming a major threat to the existence of the mankind. It has been proposed that the ˜2 ˚ C rise in the average global temperature may lead to a point of no-return where the balance between the climate and the ecosystem collapses. Therefore, detailed understanding of the major carbon reservoirs and their mutual interactions is needed for better future climate prediction. Among all the reservoirs, ocean holds ˜90 % of the exogenic carbon and promotes long term storage in sediments. However, the majority of the sedimentary carbon is of terrestrial origin and transported through rivers, which play an important role in carbon exchange between the atmosphere, terrestrial biosphere, and oceans. The transportation of organic carbon through river does not follow a simple conveyer belt model. Various organic and inorganic reactions (i.e., organic carbon degradation, inorganic carbon precipitation, primary production, community respiration) modify the state of the carbon to form a major sub-reservoir in the river, i.e., Dissolved Inorganic Carbon (DIC). So, identifying the source/s of the DIC is crucial to understand the carbon dynamics in the river. Stable carbon isotopic composition of the DIC (δ13CDIC) has long been extensively used to reveal the dominant source/s of the DIC. The majority of the large rivers, being situated in the tropical belts, show seasonal fluctuation in the DIC sources. However, seasonal sampling in the remotest reaches of these rivers hindered our thorough understanding of the seasonally varying source/s of DIC in these rivers. Many calcifying organisms precipitate their shell carbonate in equilibrium with water and hence likely to record the δ13CDICof ambient water in their shell. In this study, a living oyster (Crassostrea cuttakensis) was collected from Matla River, which is part of the Ganges Brahmaputra river delta system, and analyzed for its stable

The value of model averaging and dynamical climate model predictions for improving statistical seasonal streamflow forecasts over Australia

Science.gov (United States)

Pokhrel, Prafulla; Wang, Q. J.; Robertson, David E.

2013-10-01

Seasonal streamflow forecasts are valuable for planning and allocation of water resources. In Australia, the Bureau of Meteorology employs a statistical method to forecast seasonal streamflows. The method uses predictors that are related to catchment wetness at the start of a forecast period and to climate during the forecast period. For the latter, a predictor is selected among a number of lagged climate indices as candidates to give the "best" model in terms of model performance in cross validation. This study investigates two strategies for further improvement in seasonal streamflow forecasts. The first is to combine, through Bayesian model averaging, multiple candidate models with different lagged climate indices as predictors, to take advantage of different predictive strengths of the multiple models. The second strategy is to introduce additional candidate models, using rainfall and sea surface temperature predictions from a global climate model as predictors. This is to take advantage of the direct simulations of various dynamic processes. The results show that combining forecasts from multiple statistical models generally yields more skillful forecasts than using only the best model and appears to moderate the worst forecast errors. The use of rainfall predictions from the dynamical climate model marginally improves the streamflow forecasts when viewed over all the study catchments and seasons, but the use of sea surface temperature predictions provide little additional benefit.

Sulfur and Iron Cycling in a Coastal Sediment - Radiotracer Studies and Seasonal Dynamics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

MOESLUND, L.; THAMDRUP, B.; JØRGENSEN, BB

1994-01-01

The seasonal variation in sulfate reduction and the dynamics of sulfur and iron geochemistry were studied throughout a year in sediment of Aarhus Bay, Denmark. A radiotracer method for measuring sulfate reduction rates was applied with incubation times down to 15 min and a depth resolution down...... to 2 mm in the oxidized surface layer of the sediment. The radiotracer data were analyzed by a mathematical model which showed that, due to partial, rapid reoxidation of radioactive sulfide during incubation, the actual reduction rates in this layer were probably underestimated 5-fold. In the deeper......, sulfidic zone, measured rates appeared to be correct. Sulfate reduction followed the seasonal variation in temperature with maximum activity at 1-2 cm depth in late summer. In spite of its rapid production, free H2S was detectable in the porewater only below the depth of free Fe2+ at 6-7 cm throughout...

Seasonal dynamics of phytoplankton in two tropical rivers of varying size and human impact in Southeast Nigeria

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Okechukwu Idumah Okogwu

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Phytoplankton occurrence and dynamics in rivers are mainly shaped by hydrophysical conditions and nutrient availability. Phytoplankton main structuring factors have been poorly studied in West African rivers, and this study was undertaken to identify these conditions in two tropical rivers that vary in size and human impact. For this, environmental variables and phytoplankton monthly samples were collected from the middle reaches of Asu and Cross rivers during an 18 months survey from March 2005-July 2006. Phytoplankton biomass (F=11.87, p=0.003, Shannon-Weiner diversity and species richness (F=5.93, p=0.003 showed significant seasonality in Asu but not in Cross River. Data was analyzed with Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA and showed environmental differences between the two rivers, nitrate in Asu River (5.1-15.5mg/L was significantly higher than Cross River (0.03-1.7mg/L, while PO4 (0.2-0.9mg/L was significantly lower in Asu River compared to Cross River (0.03-2.6mg/L (p<0.05. Eutrophic factors (NO3 determined primarily phytoplankton dynamics in Asu River, especially during the dry season, whereas hydrophysical factors (depth, transparency and temperature shaped phytoplankton in Cross River. Taxa indicative of an eutrophic condition, such as Euglena, Chlorella, Chlorococcus, Ceratium, Peridinium, Anabaena, Aphanizomenon, Closterium, Scenedesmus and Pediastrum spp., were frequently encountered in the shallow impounded Asu River, while riverine species, such as Frustulia rhomboids, Gyrosigma sp., Opephora martyr and Surirella splendida dominated Cross River. A succession pattern was observed in the functional groups identified: Na/MP→TB→P (rainy→dry season was observed in Asu River, whereas MP/D predominated in Cross River for both seasons. We concluded that, if nutrients predominate hydrophysical factors in shaping phytoplankton during dry season (half of the year then, they are as important as hydrophysical factors structuring

Estimates of eddy turbulence consistent with seasonal variations of atomic oxygen and its possible role in the seasonal cycle of mesopause temperature

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. N. Vlasov

2010-11-01

Full Text Available According to current understanding, adiabatic cooling and heating induced by the meridional circulation driven by gravity waves is the major process for the cold summer and warm winter polar upper mesosphere. However, our calculations show that the upward/downward motion needed for adiabatic cooling/heating of the summer/winter polar mesopause simultaneously induces a seasonal variation in both the O maximum density and the altitude of the [O] peak that is opposite to the observed variables generalized by the MSISE-90 model. It is usually accepted that eddy turbulence can produce the [O] seasonal variations. Using this approach, we can infer the eddy diffusion coefficient for the different seasons. Taking these results and experimental data on the eddy diffusion coefficient, we consider in detail and estimate the heating and cooling caused by eddy turbulence in the summer and winter polar upper mesosphere. The seasonal variations of these processes are similar to the seasonal variations of the temperature and mesopause. These results lead to the conclusion that heating/cooling by eddy turbulence is an important component in the energy budget and that adiabatic cooling/heating induced by upward/downward motion cannot dominate in the mesopause region. Our study shows that the impact of the dynamic process, induced by gravity waves, on [O] distributions must be included in models of thermal balance in the upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT for a consistent description because (a the [O] distribution is very sensitive to dynamic processes, and (b atomic oxygen plays a very important role in chemical heating and infrared cooling in the MLT. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to consider this aspect of the problem.

Toward understanding dynamic annealing processes in irradiated ceramics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Myers, Michael Thomas [Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (United States)

2013-05-01

High energy particle irradiation inevitably generates defects in solids. The ballistic formation and thermalization of the defect creation process occur rapidly, and are believed to be reasonably well understood. However, knowledge of the evolution of defects after damage cascade thermalization, referred to as dynamic annealing, is quite limited. Unraveling the mechanisms associated with dynamic annealing is crucial since such processes play an important role in the formation of stable postirradiation disorder in ion-beam-processing of semiconductors, and determines the “radiation tolerance” of many nuclear materials. The purpose of this dissertation is to further our understanding of the processes involved in dynamic annealing. In order to achieve this, two main tasks are undertaken.

Seasonally dynamic fungal communities in the Quercus macrocarpa phyllosphere differ between urban and nonurban environments.

Science.gov (United States)

Jumpponen, A; Jones, K L

2010-04-01

*The fungal richness, diversity and community composition in the Quercus macrocarpa phyllosphere were compared across a growing season in trees located in six stands within and outside a small urban center using 454-sequencing and DNA tagging. The approaches did not differentiate between endophytic and epiphytic fungal communities. *Fungi accumulated in the phyllosphere rapidly and communities were temporally dynamic, with more than a third of the analyzed operational taxonomic units (OTUs) and half of the BLAST-inferred genera showing distinct seasonal patterns. The seasonal patterns could be explained by fungal life cycles or environmental tolerances. *The communities were hyperdiverse and differed between the urban and nonurban stands, albeit not consistently across the growing season. Foliar macronutrients (nitrogen (N), potassium (K) and sulfur (S)), micronutrients (boron (B), manganese (Mn) and selenium (Se)) and trace elements (cadmium (Cd), lead (Pb) and zinc (Zn)) were enriched in the urban trees, probably as a result of anthropogenic activities. Because of correlations with the experimental layout, these chemical elements should not be considered as community drivers without further empirical studies. *We suggest that a combination of mechanisms leads to differences between urban and nonurban communities. Among those are stand isolation and size, nutrient and pollutant accumulation plus stand management, including fertilization and litter removal.

Seasonal Dynamics of Haptophytes and dsDNA Algal Viruses Suggest Complex Virus-Host Relationship.

Science.gov (United States)

Johannessen, Torill Vik; Larsen, Aud; Bratbak, Gunnar; Pagarete, António; Edvardsen, Bente; Egge, Elianne D; Sandaa, Ruth-Anne

2017-04-20

Viruses influence the ecology and diversity of phytoplankton in the ocean. Most studies of phytoplankton host-virus interactions have focused on bloom-forming species like Emiliania huxleyi or Phaeocystis spp. The role of viruses infecting phytoplankton that do not form conspicuous blooms have received less attention. Here we explore the dynamics of phytoplankton and algal viruses over several sequential seasons, with a focus on the ubiquitous and diverse phytoplankton division Haptophyta, and their double-stranded DNA viruses, potentially with the capacity to infect the haptophytes. Viral and phytoplankton abundance and diversity showed recurrent seasonal changes, mainly explained by hydrographic conditions. By 454 tag-sequencing we revealed 93 unique haptophyte operational taxonomic units (OTUs), with seasonal changes in abundance. Sixty-one unique viral OTUs, representing Megaviridae and Phycodnaviridae , showed only distant relationship with currently isolated algal viruses. Haptophyte and virus community composition and diversity varied substantially throughout the year, but in an uncoordinated manner. A minority of the viral OTUs were highly abundant at specific time-points, indicating a boom-bust relationship with their host. Most of the viral OTUs were very persistent, which may represent viruses that coexist with their hosts, or able to exploit several host species.

Sedimentary oxygen dynamics in a seasonally hypoxic basin

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Seitaj, D.; Sulu-Gambari, F; Burdorf, L.D.W.; Romero-Ramirez, A.; Maire, O.; Malkin, S.Y.; Slomp, C. P.; Meysman, F.J.R.

2017-01-01

Seasonal hypoxia refers to the oxygen depletion that occurs in summer in the bottom water of stratified systems, and is increasingly observed in coastal areas worldwide. The process induces a seasonal cycle on the biogeochemistry of the underlying sediments, which remains poorly quantified. Here, we

Sedimentary oxygen dynamics in a seasonally hypoxic basin

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Seitaj, Dorina; Sulu-Gambari, Fatimah; Burdorf, Laurine D. W.; Romero-Ramirez, Alicia; Maire, Olivier; Malkin, Sairah Y.; Slomp, Caroline P.; Meysman, Filip J.R.

Seasonal hypoxia refers to the oxygen depletion that occurs in summer in the bottom water of stratified systems, and is increasingly observed in coastal areas worldwide. The process induces a seasonal cycle on the biogeochemistry of the underlying sediments, which remains poorly quantified. Here, we

Understanding the dynamics of parent involvement in schooling ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Erna Kinsey

A qualitative study was undertaken to understand the realities and dynamics facing parents when attempting to be ... programmatic efforts for promoting children's adjustment and com- ... then conducted with six parents of two community-based support .... included in important issues regarding the education of their children.

Specific structure, sexual parity and seasonal dynamics of separate kinds of ground-beetles of Tljaratinskiy area of Daghestan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. H. Imanmirzaev

2008-01-01

Full Text Available As a result of carried out research in fauna of ground-beetles of Tljaratinskiy area it is revealed 87 kinds concerning 24 sorts. The sexual parity is established and seasonal dynamics of prepotent kinds is certain.

SEASONAL MARKETING: STRATEGIES USING THE CALENDAR

OpenAIRE

Dr Anil Sardana; Dr PoojaTalwar; Shruti Gulati

2018-01-01

In this ever-dynamic world, the only thing that is constant is change. Change when happens, applies to all; then why should marketing remain the same? Each year is a witness to various seasons, and each season requires separate marketing efforts to be carried out differently. Seasonal marketing thus helps to capitalise on the varied demand through varied marketing. Every season requires special efforts and hence leads to different sales.

Examining secular trends and seasonality in count data using dynamic generalized linear modelling: a new methodological approach illustrated with hospital discharge data on myocardial infarction.

Science.gov (United States)

Lundbye-Christensen, S; Dethlefsen, C; Gorst-Rasmussen, A; Fischer, T; Schønheyder, H C; Rothman, K J; Sørensen, H T

2009-01-01

Time series of incidence counts often show secular trends and seasonal patterns. We present a model for incidence counts capable of handling a possible gradual change in growth rates and seasonal patterns, serial correlation, and overdispersion. The model resembles an ordinary time series regression model for Poisson counts. It differs in allowing the regression coefficients to vary gradually over time in a random fashion. During the 1983-1999 period, 17,989 incidents of acute myocardial infarction were recorded in the Hospital Discharge Registry for the county of North Jutland, Denmark. Records were updated daily. A dynamic model with a seasonal pattern and an approximately linear trend was fitted to the data, and diagnostic plots indicated a good model fit. The analysis conducted with the dynamic model revealed peaks coinciding with above-average influenza A activity. On average the dynamic model estimated a higher peak-to-trough ratio than traditional models, and showed gradual changes in seasonal patterns. Analyses conducted with this model provide insights not available from more traditional approaches.

Seasonal dynamics of common ground beetles (Coleoptera: Carabidae) along an urbanisation gradient near Sorø, Zealand, Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Elek, Zoltan; Howe, Andy G.; Enggaard, Mattias

2017-01-01

The seasonal activity of six carabid species (Nebria brevicollis, Carabus nemoralis, C. hortensis, C. coriaceus, Pterostichus melanarius and Abax parallelepipedus) was studied along an urbanisation gradient (rural forest – suburban forest – forest fragments in urban park) in Sorø, Denmark, during...... and between the years (C. nemoralis, N. brevicollis and P. melanarius). In four out of six studied species, 2005 was less favourable than 2004. Spring activity in the urban habitat started earlier than in the suburban or forested ones. Abetter understanding of urban green infrastructures in biodiversity...... assessments may need the study of seasonality in order to distinguish whether the bioindicator’s responses are to habitat quality or stochastic seasonal events....

Seasonal dynamics of SAR11 populations in the euphotic and mesopelagic zones of the northwestern Sargasso Sea

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Carlson, Craig A; Morris, Robert; Parsons, Rachel

2009-01-01

, resolving their temporal dynamics can provide important insights to the cycling of organic and inorganic nutrients. This quantitative time-series data revealed distinct annual distribution patterns of SAR11 abundance in the euphotic (0-120) and upper mesopelagic (160-300 m) zones that were reproducibly...... correlated with seasonal mixing and stratification of the water column. Terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism (T-RFLP) data generated from a decade of samples collected at BATS were combined with the FISH data to model the annual dynamics of SAR11 subclade populations. 16S rRNA gene clone...... the Sargasso Sea surface layer, and revealed new details of their population dynamics....

Long-Term Effects of Season of Prescribed Burn on the Fine-Root Growth, Root Carbohydrates, and Foliar Dynamics of Mature Longleaf Pine

Science.gov (United States)

Eric A. Kuehler; Mary Anne Sword Sayer; James D. Haywood; C. Dan Andries

2004-01-01

Depending on the season and intensity of fire, as well as the phenology of foliage and new root growth, fire may damage foliage, and subsequently decrease whole-crown carbon fixation and allocation to the root system. In central Louisiana the authors investigated how season of prescribed burning affects fine-root dynamics, root carbohydrate relations, and leaf area...

Seasonal dynamics of the tick Haemaphysalis tibetensis in the Tibetan Plateau, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, M; Li, T; Yu, Z J; Qiu, Z X; Yan, P; Li, Y; Liu, J

2017-12-01

The tick Haemaphysalis tibetensis (Acari: Ixodidae) Hoogstraal is an important arthropod vector widespread in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and knowledge of its seasonal dynamics is still poor. The current study investigated the seasonal dynamics of the parasitic and non-parasitic H. tibetensis over a 2-year period from March 2014 to February 2016 in the Tibetan Plateau, China. During this timeframe, non-parasitic ticks were collected weekly by flag-dragging in grassland and shrubland areas, and parasitic ticks were removed weekly from selected sheep. Plateau pikas were captured using traps and examined for immature ticks between May to September 2014. Results suggest that non-parasitic H. tibetensis were mainly distributed in the grassland, and the parasitic adults and nymphs were found mostly on sheep. Larvae were usually found on Plateau pikas and the prevalence of infestation and mean parasitic intensity were 72.1 and 1.81%, respectively. Adults were observed from March to July with the major peak occurring in mid-April. Nymphs were found from March to August and reached a peak in late June. Larvae were collected from April to September, and their numbers peaked in late May. In the parasitic and non-parasitic period, the overall sex ratio of males to females was 1.62 and 1.30, respectively. Results show that H. tibetensis can complete one generation per year, with a population overlap between stages over the spring-summer months. These findings provide additional information on the biology and ecology of H. tibetensis as well as insights on its control in the environment and on sheep. © 2017 The Royal Entomological Society.

Seasonal variation in the prevalence of sand flies infected with Leishmania donovani.

Science.gov (United States)

Tiwary, Puja; Kumar, Dinesh; Mishra, Mukesh; Singh, Rudra Pratap; Rai, Madhukar; Sundar, Shyam

2013-01-01

Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) is a life threatening neglected infectious disease in the Indian subcontinent, transmitted by the bite of female sand flies. Estimation of the infectivity in the vector population, collected in different seasons, may be useful to better understanding the transmission dynamics of VL as well as to plan vector control measures. We collected sand flies from highly endemic regions of Bihar state, India for one year over three seasons. The species of the sand flies were confirmed by species-specific PCR-RFLP. Leishmania donovani infection was investigated in 1397 female Phlebotomus argentipes using PCR, targeting the Leishmania specific minicircle of the kDNA region. Further, the parasitic load in the infected sand flies was measured using quantitative PCR. Though sand flies were most abundant in the rainy season, the highest rate of infection was detected in the winter season with 2.84% sand flies infected followed by the summer and rainy seasons respectively. This study can help in vector elimination programmes and to reduce disease transmission.

Diversity in plant hydraulic traits explains seasonal and inter-annual variations of vegetation dynamics in seasonally dry tropical forests.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Xiangtao; Medvigy, David; Powers, Jennifer S; Becknell, Justin M; Guan, Kaiyu

2016-10-01

We assessed whether diversity in plant hydraulic traits can explain the observed diversity in plant responses to water stress in seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs). The Ecosystem Demography model 2 (ED2) was updated with a trait-driven mechanistic plant hydraulic module, as well as novel drought-phenology and plant water stress schemes. Four plant functional types were parameterized on the basis of meta-analysis of plant hydraulic traits. Simulations from both the original and the updated ED2 were evaluated against 5 yr of field data from a Costa Rican SDTF site and remote-sensing data over Central America. The updated model generated realistic plant hydraulic dynamics, such as leaf water potential and stem sap flow. Compared with the original ED2, predictions from our novel trait-driven model matched better with observed growth, phenology and their variations among functional groups. Most notably, the original ED2 produced unrealistically small leaf area index (LAI) and underestimated cumulative leaf litter. Both of these biases were corrected by the updated model. The updated model was also better able to simulate spatial patterns of LAI dynamics in Central America. Plant hydraulic traits are intercorrelated in SDTFs. Mechanistic incorporation of plant hydraulic traits is necessary for the simulation of spatiotemporal patterns of vegetation dynamics in SDTFs in vegetation models. © 2016 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2016 New Phytologist Trust.

Dynamic ankle stability and ankle sprain occurrence in elite ball team athletes : a one season prospective study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Chris Visscher; Anne Benjaminse; Koen A.P.M. Lemmink; Msc Henrike van der Does; Michel Brink; Joan Dallinga

2013-01-01

To compare the dynamic stability index (DSI) measured at baseline between elite ball team athletes with and without an ankle sprain during the season. Methods Forty-four elite male (age:22.5±3.6yr,height:193.7±8.0cm,mass:87.1±10.9kg) and eighteen female

Seasonal dynamics of microbiological indices of water in the Ingulets and Berezovka rivers under different antropogenic burden

OpenAIRE

N. B. Esipova; V. А. Zhezherya

2007-01-01

The seasonal dynamics of microbiological indices of sanitary situation in Ingulets and Berezovka Rivers was analysed at spring-autumn period. The sanitary mapping of the rivers was done for the Alexandria area. In most cases maximal level of the rivers contamination by the lactose-positive E. coli index was found in August.

Seasonal Precipitation Variability Effects on Carbon Exchange in a Tropical Dry Forest of Northwest Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Verduzco, V.; Garatuza-Payan, J.; Yépez, E. A.; Watts, C. J.; Rodriguez, J. C.; Robles-Morua, A.; Vivoni, E. R.

2015-12-01

The Tropical Dry Forest (TDF) cover a large area in tropical and subtropical regions in the Americas and its productivity is thought to have an important contribution to the atmospheric carbon fluxes. However, due to this ecosystem complex dynamics, our understanding about the mechanisms controlling net ecosystem exchange is limited. In this study, five years of continue water and carbon fluxes measurements from eddy covariance complemented with remotely sensed vegetation greenness were used to investigate the ecosystem carbon balance of a TDF in the North American Monsoon region under different hydro climatic conditions. We identified a large CO2 efflux at the start of the summer season that is strongly related to the preceding winter precipitation and greenness. Since this CO2 efflux occurs prior to vegetation green-up, we infer a predominant heterotrophic control owed to high decomposition of accumulated labile soil organic matter from prior growing season. Overall, ecosystem respiration has an important effect on the net ecosystem production over the year, but can be overwhelmed by the strength of the primary productivity during the monsoon season. Precipitation characteristics during the monsoon have significant controls on sustaining carbon fixation in the TDF ecosystem into the fall season. A threshold of ~350 to 400 mm of summer precipitation was identify to switch the annual carbon balance in the TDF ecosystem from a net source (+102 g C/m2/yr) to a net sink (-249 g C/m2/yr). This research points at the needs for understanding the potential effects of changing seasonal precipitation patterns on ecosystem dynamics and carbon sequestration in subtropical regions.

Grand challenges in developing a predictive understanding of global fire dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Randerson, J. T.; Chen, Y.; Wiggins, E. B.; Andela, N.; Morton, D. C.; Veraverbeke, S.; van der Werf, G.

2017-12-01

High quality satellite observations of burned area and fire thermal anomalies over the past two decades have transformed our understanding of climate, ecosystem, and human controls on the spatial and temporal distribution of landscape fires. The satellite observations provide evidence for a rapid and widespread loss of fire from grassland and savanna ecosystems worldwide. Continued expansion of industrial agriculture suggests that observed declines in global burned area are likely to continue in future decades, with profound consequences for ecosystem function and the habitat of many endangered species. Satellite time series also highlight the importance of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and other climate modes as drivers of interannual variability. In many regions, lead times between climate indices and fire activity are considerable, enabling the development of early warning prediction systems for fire season severity. With the recent availability of high-resolution observations from Suomi NPP, Landsat 8, and Sentinel 2, the field of global fire ecology is poised to make even more significant breakthroughs over the next decade. With these new observations, it may be possible to reduce uncertainties in the spatial pattern of burned area by several fold. It is difficult to overstate the importance of these new data constraints for improving our understanding of fire impacts on human health and radiative forcing of climate change. A key research challenge in this context is to understand how the loss of global burned area will affect magnitude of the terrestrial carbon sink and trends in atmospheric composition. Advances in prognostic fire modeling will require new approaches linking agriculture with landscape fire dynamics. A critical need in this context is the development of predictive models of road networks and other drivers of land fragmentation, and a closer integration of fragmentation information with algorithms predicting fire spread. Concurrently, a better

Seasonality in the Mesozooplankton Community of Delaware Bay, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Wickline, A.; Cohen, J.

2016-02-01

Zooplankton communities in temperate estuaries undergo seasonal shifts in abundance and species composition, though the physical/biological mechanisms behind these shifts vary among systems. Delaware Bay is a well-mixed estuary on the mid-Atlantic coast with predictable seasonal variation in environmental conditions and circulation. To understand factors influencing mesozooplankton community dynamics in this system, we conducted seasonal sampling at 16 stations over the estuary's salinity range in 2014-2015. Sampling paralleled the last similar investigation into Delaware Bay zooplankton, conducted in the early 1950s. Biomass, measured as dry weight and totaled for all stations, was low in late summer and high in spring and fall. Bio-volume, measured either as displacement volume or calculated from ZooScan processing to exclude detritus, also showed a similar pattern. Across seasons, the mesozooplankton community was dominated by copepods, representing over 60% of the relative abundance at each station. Acartia tonsa was the dominant calanoid species in summer and fall, with abundances up to 7,353 ind. m-3, which is similar to the 1950s. In spring, Centropages hamatus and C. typicus were dominant at densities up to 2,550 ind. m-3 throughout the estuary, which is an increase from the 1950s. Environmental data suggest the seasonal shift in dominance from neritic Centropages to estuarine Acartia could be driven by increased stratification of the estuary during periods of high river discharge in spring, creating a two-layer system with a bottom advection current fed by the coastal ocean, bringing coastal species into the estuary. As river discharge decreases, the advection current is reduced, creating a well-mixed estuary and allowing Acartia to dominante. As river discharge is ultimately determined by precipitation, which is predicted to increase during winter with climate change in this region, the phenology of mesozooplankton species dynamics could shift as well.

On the seasonal transition from winter to spring in Europe and the "seasonal feeling" relating to "Fasnacht" in comparison with those in East Asia (Toward an interdisciplinary activity on climate and cultural understanding education)

Science.gov (United States)

Kato, Kuranoshin; Kato, Haruko; Hamaki, Tatsuya

2016-04-01

East Asia tends to disappear rapidly, the seasonal feeling there changes considerably also around the middle of February (in spite of the rather lower mean temperature than in early winter). Thus we will also compare with those around Japan. Deeper knowledge on the seasonal cycle would contribute greatly to considering the detailed response of the regional climate to the global-scale impacts such as the global warming, as well as the cultural understanding as mentioned above. Besides, we do think that the recognition of the delicacy of such seasonal feelings would often lead us to an essential insight into comprehending such detailed seasonal cycle of the climate systems. Finally, we will also discuss on the development of interdisciplinary study plan on climate and cultural understanding education, based on the above presentation.

Improved understanding of drought controls on seasonal variation in Mediterranean forest canopy CO2 and water fluxes through combined in situ measurements and ecosystem modelling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Sabate

2009-08-01

Full Text Available Water stress is a defining characteristic of Mediterranean ecosystems, and is likely to become more severe in the coming decades. Simulation models are key tools for making predictions, but our current understanding of how soil moisture controls ecosystem functioning is not sufficient to adequately constrain parameterisations. Canopy-scale flux data from four forest ecosystems with Mediterranean-type climates were used in order to analyse the physiological controls on carbon and water flues through the year. Significant non-stomatal limitations on photosynthesis were detected, along with lesser changes in the conductance-assimilation relationship. New model parameterisations were derived and implemented in two contrasting modelling approaches. The effectiveness of two models, one a dynamic global vegetation model ("ORCHIDEE", and the other a forest growth model particularly developed for Mediterranean simulations ("GOTILWA+", was assessed and modelled canopy responses to seasonal changes in soil moisture were analysed in comparison with in situ flux measurements. In contrast to commonly held assumptions, we find that changing the ratio of conductance to assimilation under natural, seasonally-developing, soil moisture stress is not sufficient to reproduce forest canopy CO2 and water fluxes. However, accurate predictions of both CO2 and water fluxes under all soil moisture levels encountered in the field are obtained if photosynthetic capacity is assumed to vary with soil moisture. This new parameterisation has important consequences for simulated responses of carbon and water fluxes to seasonal soil moisture stress, and should greatly improve our ability to anticipate future impacts of climate changes on the functioning of ecosystems in Mediterranean-type climates.

Seasonal dynamics of mosquito occurrence in the Lower Dyje River Basin at the Czech-Slovak-Austrian border

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Šebesta, Oldřich; Gelbič, Ivan; Peško, Juraj

2013-01-01

Roč. 80, č. 1 (2013), s. 125-138 ISSN 1125-0003 R&D Projects: GA MŠk 2B08003 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z50070508 Institutional support: RVO:68081766 ; RVO:60077344 Keywords : Czech Republic * South Moravia * Aedes vexans * Culex modestus * seasonal dynamics Subject RIV: EG - Zoology Impact factor: 0.865, year: 2013

Understanding Learner Agency as a Complex Dynamic System

Science.gov (United States)

Mercer, Sarah

2011-01-01

This paper attempts to contribute to a fuller understanding of the nature of language learner agency by considering it as a complex dynamic system. The purpose of the study was to explore detailed situated data to examine to what extent it is feasible to view learner agency through the lens of complexity theory. Data were generated through a…

What an understanding of the dynamics of gossip has to teach about group dynamics and group leadership.

Science.gov (United States)

Gans, Jerome S

2014-01-01

Although what transpires in group therapy is not gossip per se-except perhaps when absent or former members are discussed-listening to group interaction through an understanding of the dynamics of gossip can contribute to a greater appreciation of group dynamics and group leadership as well as enlarge therapeutic space. After examining the interpersonal dynamics of gossip, this paper discusses six ways in which an understanding of these dynamics can inform group leadership and shed light on group psychotherapy. Central features of gossip that appear in group interactions are explored: These include projection, displacement, self-esteem regulation, clarification of motivation, unself-consciousness, social comparison and bonding, avoidance of psychic pain, and making the ego-syntonic dystonic. The lively use of imagination in the mature phase of group therapy is conceived of as the time when the darker side of human nature-imagined gossip harnessed for therapeutic purposes-can be welcomed in and processed in a kind, playful, and compassionate manner.

Synchrony, compensatory dynamics, and the functional trait basis of phenological diversity in a tropical dry forest tree community: effects of rainfall seasonality

Science.gov (United States)

Lasky, Jesse R.; Uriarte, María; Muscarella, Robert

2016-11-01

Interspecific variation in phenology is a key axis of functional diversity, potentially mediating how communities respond to climate change. The diverse drivers of phenology act across multiple temporal scales. For example, abiotic constraints favor synchronous reproduction (positive covariance among species), while biotic interactions can favor synchrony or compensatory dynamics (negative covariance). We used wavelet analyses to examine phenology of community flower and seed production for 45 tree species across multiple temporal scales in a tropical dry forest in Puerto Rico with marked rainfall seasonality. We asked three questions: (1) do species exhibit synchronous or compensatory temporal dynamics in reproduction, (2) do interspecific differences in phenology reflect variable responses to rainfall, and (3) is interspecific variation in phenology and response to a major drought associated with functional traits that mediate responses to moisture? Community-level flowering was synchronized at seasonal scales (˜5-6 mo) and at short scales (˜1 mo, following rainfall). However, seed rain exhibited significant compensatory dynamics at intraseasonal scales (˜3 mo), suggesting interspecific variation in temporal niches. Species with large leaves (associated with sensitivity to water deficit) peaked in reproduction synchronously with the peak of seasonal rainfall (˜5 mo scale). By contrast, species with high wood specific gravity (associated with drought resistance) tended to flower in drier periods. Flowering of tall species and those with large leaves was most tightly linked to intraseasonal (˜2 mo scale) rainfall fluctuations. Although the 2015 drought dramatically reduced community-wide reproduction, functional traits were not associated with the magnitude of species-specific declines. Our results suggest opposing drivers of synchronous versus compensatory dynamics at different temporal scales. Phenology associations with functional traits indicated that

Structure, seasonal dynamics and distribution of zooplankton in lake Drukshiai in 1994

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mazheikaite, S.; Pashkauskas, R.

1995-01-01

Investigations on the zooplankton of Lake Drukshiai were carried out in 1994. There were registered 62 taxons of protozoa and 50 taxons of metazoa, and compared with the data of 1979 - 1986 the diversity of species composition decreased 2.1 times. Eurytermic and stenothermic thermophylic species prevailed in the plankton biocenosis. In protozooplankton dominated ciliates of subclasses teolotricha and spirotricha, in metazooplankton -planctonic crustacea (Copopeda and Cladocera). Rotifers (Rotaria) were abundant only in the shallow and heated water outlet area. Seasonal dynamics of protozooplankton indicated one maximum in spring and metazooplankton - in summer. High diferentiation in quantity and biomass of zooplankton in the lake revealed different level of eutrophication of some areas. (author). 7 refs., 5 figs

Understanding dynamics using sensitivity analysis: caveat and solution

Science.gov (United States)

2011-01-01

Background Parametric sensitivity analysis (PSA) has become one of the most commonly used tools in computational systems biology, in which the sensitivity coefficients are used to study the parametric dependence of biological models. As many of these models describe dynamical behaviour of biological systems, the PSA has subsequently been used to elucidate important cellular processes that regulate this dynamics. However, in this paper, we show that the PSA coefficients are not suitable in inferring the mechanisms by which dynamical behaviour arises and in fact it can even lead to incorrect conclusions. Results A careful interpretation of parametric perturbations used in the PSA is presented here to explain the issue of using this analysis in inferring dynamics. In short, the PSA coefficients quantify the integrated change in the system behaviour due to persistent parametric perturbations, and thus the dynamical information of when a parameter perturbation matters is lost. To get around this issue, we present a new sensitivity analysis based on impulse perturbations on system parameters, which is named impulse parametric sensitivity analysis (iPSA). The inability of PSA and the efficacy of iPSA in revealing mechanistic information of a dynamical system are illustrated using two examples involving switch activation. Conclusions The interpretation of the PSA coefficients of dynamical systems should take into account the persistent nature of parametric perturbations involved in the derivation of this analysis. The application of PSA to identify the controlling mechanism of dynamical behaviour can be misleading. By using impulse perturbations, introduced at different times, the iPSA provides the necessary information to understand how dynamics is achieved, i.e. which parameters are essential and when they become important. PMID:21406095

Biological soil crusts exhibit a dynamic response to seasonal rain and release from grazing with implications for soil stability

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Jimenez, Aguilar A.; Huber-Sannwald, E.; Belnap, J.; Smart, D.R.; Arredondo, Moreno J.T.

2009-01-01

In Northern Mexico, long-term grazing has substantially degraded semiarid landscapes. In semiarid systems, ecological and hydrological processes are strongly coupled by patchy plant distribution and biological soil crust (BSC) cover in plant-free interspaces. In this study, we asked: 1) how responsive are BSC cover/composition to a drying/wetting cycle and two-year grazing removal, and 2) what are the implications for soil erosion? We characterized BSC morphotypes and their influence on soil stability under grazed/non-grazed conditions during a dry and wet season. Light- and dark-colored cyanobacteria were dominant at the plant tussock and community level. Cover changes in these two groups differed after a rainy season and in response to grazing removal. Lichens with continuous thalli were more vulnerable to grazing than those with semi-continuous/discontinuous thalli after the dry season. Microsites around tussocks facilitated BSC colonization compared to interspaces. Lichen and cyanobacteria morphotypes differentially enhanced resistance to soil erosion; consequently, surface soil stability depends on the spatial distribution of BSC morphotypes, suggesting soil stability may be as dynamic as changes in the type of BSC cover. Longer-term spatially detailed studies are necessary to elicit spatiotemporal dynamics of BSC communities and their functional role in biotically and abiotically variable environments. ?? 2009 Elsevier Ltd.

Impact of seasonal forcing on reactive ecological systems.

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Vesipa, Riccardo; Ridolfi, Luca

2017-04-21

Our focus is on the short-term dynamics of reactive ecological systems which are stable in the long term. In these systems, perturbations can exhibit significant transient amplifications before asymptotically decaying. This peculiar behavior has attracted increasing attention. However, reactive systems have so far been investigated assuming that external environmental characteristics remain constant, although environmental conditions (e.g., temperature, moisture, water availability, etc.) can undergo substantial changes due to seasonal cycles. In order to fill this gap, we propose applying the adjoint non-modal analysis to study the impact of seasonal variations of environmental conditions on reactive systems. This tool allows the transient dynamics of a perturbation affecting non-autonomous ecological systems to be described. To show the potential of this approach, a seasonally forced prey-predator model with a Holling II type functional response is studied as an exemplifying case. We demonstrate that seasonalities can greatly affect the transient dynamics of the system. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reconciling top-down and bottom-up estimates of CO2 fluxes to understand increased seasonal exchange in Northern ecosystems

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Bastos, A.; Ciais, P.; Zhu, D.; Maignan, F.; Wang, X.; Chevallier, F.; Ballantyne, A.

2017-12-01

Continuous atmospheric CO2 monitoring data indicate enhanced seasonal exchange in the high-latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere (above 40oN), mainly attributed to terrestrial ecosystems. Whether this enhancement is mostly explained by increased vegetation growth due to CO2 fertilization and warming, or by changes in land-use and land-management practices is still an unsettled question (e.g. Forkel et al. (2016) and Zeng et al. (2013)). Previous studies have shown that models present variable performance in capturing trends in CO2 amplitude at CO2 monitoring sites, and that Earth System Models present large spread in their estimates of such trends. Here we integrate data of atmospheric CO2 exchange in terrestrial ecosystems by a set of atmospheric CO2 inversions and a range of land-surface models to evaluate the ability of models to reproduce changes in CO2 seasonal exchange within the observation uncertainty. We then analyze the factors that explain the model spread to understand if the trend in seasonal CO2 amplitude may indeed be a useful metric to constrain future changes in terrestrial photosynthesis (Wenzel et al., 2016). We then compare model simulations with satellite and other observation-based datasets of vegetation productivity, biomass stocks and land-cover change to test the contribution of natural (CO2 fertilization, climate) and human (land-use change) factors to the increasing trend in seasonal CO2 amplitude. Forkel, Matthias, et al. "Enhanced seasonal CO2 exchange caused by amplified plant productivity in northern ecosystems." Science 351.6274 (2016): 696-699. Wenzel, Sabrina, et al. "Projected land photosynthesis constrained by changes in the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2." Nature 538, no. 7626 (2016): 499-501.Zeng, Ning, et al. "Agricultural Green Revolution as a driver of increasing atmospheric CO2 seasonal amplitude." Nature 515.7527 (2014): 394.

Seasonal variations in suspended-sediment dynamics in the tidal reach of an estuarine tributary

Science.gov (United States)

Downing-Kunz, Maureen A.; Schoellhamer, David H.

2013-01-01

Quantifying sediment supply from estuarine tributaries is an important component of developing a sediment budget, and common techniques for estimating supply are based on gages located above tidal influence. However, tidal interactions near tributary mouths can affect the magnitude and direction of sediment supply to the open waters of the estuary. We investigated suspended-sediment dynamics in the tidal reach of Corte Madera Creek, an estuarine tributary of San Francisco Bay, using moored acoustic and optical instruments. Flux of both water and suspended-sediment were calculated from observed water velocity and turbidity for two periods in each of wet and dry seasons during 2010. During wet periods, net suspended-sediment flux was seaward; tidally filtered flux was dominated by the advective component. In contrast, during dry periods, net flux was landward; tidally filtered flux was dominated by the dispersive component. The mechanisms generating this landward flux varied; during summer we attributed wind–wave resuspension in the estuary and subsequent transport on flood tides, whereas during autumn we attributed increased spring tide flood velocity magnitude leading to local resuspension. A quadrant analysis similar to that employed in turbulence studies was developed to summarize flux time series by quantifying the relative importance of sediment transport events. These events are categorized by the direction of velocity (flood vs. ebb) and the magnitude of concentration relative to tidally averaged conditions (relatively turbid vs. relatively clear). During wet periods, suspended-sediment flux was greatest in magnitude during relatively turbid ebbs, whereas during dry periods it was greatest in magnitude during relatively turbid floods. A conceptual model was developed to generalize seasonal differences in suspended-sediment dynamics; model application to this study demonstrated the importance of few, relatively large events on net suspended-sediment flux

Molecular phenology in plants: in natura systems biology for the comprehensive understanding of seasonal responses under natural environments.

Science.gov (United States)

Kudoh, Hiroshi

2016-04-01

Phenology refers to the study of seasonal schedules of organisms. Molecular phenology is defined here as the study of the seasonal patterns of organisms captured by molecular biology techniques. The history of molecular phenology is reviewed briefly in relation to advances in the quantification technology of gene expression. High-resolution molecular phenology (HMP) data have enabled us to study phenology with an approach of in natura systems biology. I review recent analyses of FLOWERING LOCUS C (FLC), a temperature-responsive repressor of flowering, along the six steps in the typical flow of in natura systems biology. The extensive studies of the regulation of FLC have made this example a successful case in which a comprehensive understanding of gene functions has been progressing. The FLC-mediated long-term memory of past temperatures creates time lags with other seasonal signals, such as photoperiod and short-term temperature. Major signals that control flowering time have a phase lag between them under natural conditions, and hypothetical phase lag calendars are proposed as mechanisms of season detection in plants. Transcriptomic HMP brings a novel strategy to the study of molecular phenology, because it provides a comprehensive representation of plant functions. I discuss future perspectives of molecular phenology from the standpoints of molecular biology, evolutionary biology and ecology. © 2015 The Author. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.

Understanding conflict’s dynamics in participatory natural resources management

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Idrissou, L.; Aarts, M.N.C.; Leeuwis, C.; Paassen, van A.

2018-01-01

This paper investigated conflicts in participatory protected areas management in Benin to better understand their dynamics. This review paper is based on four articles written from three case-studies of conflicts that emerged and evolved in participatory protected areas management in Benin and a

Global sampling of the seasonal changes in vegetation biophysical properties and associated carbon flux dynamics: using the synergy of information captured by spectral time series

Science.gov (United States)

Campbell, P. K. E.; Huemmrich, K. F.; Middleton, E.; Voorhis, S.; Landis, D.

2016-12-01

Spatial heterogeneity and seasonal dynamics in vegetation function contribute significantly to the uncertainties in regional and global CO2 budgets. High spectral resolution imaging spectroscopy ( 10 nm, 400-2500 nm) provides an efficient tool for synoptic evaluation of the factors significantly affecting the ability of the vegetation to sequester carbon and to reflect radiation, due to changes in vegetation chemical and structural composition. EO-1 Hyperion has collected more than 15 years of repeated observations for vegetation studies, and currently Hyperion time series are available for study of vegetation carbon dynamics at a number of FLUX sites. This study presents results from the analysis of EO-1 Hyperion and FLUX seasonal composites for a range of ecosystems across the globe. Spectral differences and seasonal trends were evaluated for each vegetation type and specific phenology. Evaluating the relationships between CO2 flux parameters (e.g., Net ecosystem production - NEP; Gross Ecosystem Exchange - GEE, CO2 flux, μmol m-2 s-1) and spectral parameters for these very different ecosystems, high correlations were established to parameters associated with canopy water and chlorophyll content for deciduous, and photosynthetic function for conifers. Imaging spectrometry provided high spatial resolution maps of CO2 fluxes absorbed by vegetation, and was efficient in tracing seasonal flux dynamics. This study will present examples for key ecosystem tipes to demonstrate the ability of imaging spectrometry and EO-1 Hyperion to map and compare CO2 flux dynamics across the globe.

Ocean time-series reveals recurring seasonal patterns of virioplankton dynamics in the northwestern Sargasso Sea.

Science.gov (United States)

Parsons, Rachel J; Breitbart, Mya; Lomas, Michael W; Carlson, Craig A

2012-02-01

There are an estimated 10(30) virioplankton in the world oceans, the majority of which are phages (viruses that infect bacteria). Marine phages encompass enormous genetic diversity, affect biogeochemical cycling of elements, and partially control aspects of prokaryotic production and diversity. Despite their importance, there is a paucity of data describing virioplankton distributions over time and depth in oceanic systems. A decade of high-resolution time-series data collected from the upper 300 m in the northwestern Sargasso Sea revealed recurring temporal and vertical patterns of virioplankton abundance in unprecedented detail. An annual virioplankton maximum developed between 60 and 100 m during periods of summer stratification and eroded during winter convective mixing. The timing and vertical positioning of this seasonal pattern was related to variability in water column stability and the dynamics of specific picophytoplankton and heterotrophic bacterioplankton lineages. Between 60 and 100 m, virioplankton abundance was negatively correlated to the dominant heterotrophic bacterioplankton lineage SAR11, as well as the less abundant picophytoplankton, Synechococcus. In contrast, virioplankton abundance was positively correlated to the dominant picophytoplankton lineage Prochlorococcus, and the less abundant alpha-proteobacteria, Rhodobacteraceae. Seasonally, virioplankton abundances were highly synchronous with Prochlorococcus distributions and the virioplankton to Prochlorococcus ratio remained remarkably constant during periods of water column stratification. The data suggest that a significant fraction of viruses in the mid-euphotic zone of the subtropical gyres may be cyanophages and patterns in their abundance are largely determined by Prochlorococcus dynamics in response to water column stability. This high-resolution, decadal survey of virioplankton abundance provides insight into the possible controls of virioplankton dynamics in the open ocean.

Seasonal Synchronization of a Simple Stochastic Dynamical Model Capturing El Niño Diversity

Science.gov (United States)

Thual, S.; Majda, A.; Chen, N.

2017-12-01

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has significant impact on global climate and seasonal prediction. Recently, a simple ENSO model was developed that automatically captures the ENSO diversity and intermittency in nature, where state-dependent stochastic wind bursts and nonlinear advection of sea surface temperature (SST) are coupled to simple ocean-atmosphere processes that are otherwise deterministic, linear and stable. In the present article, it is further shown that the model can reproduce qualitatively the ENSO synchronization (or phase-locking) to the seasonal cycle in nature. This goal is achieved by incorporating a cloud radiative feedback that is derived naturally from the model's atmosphere dynamics with no ad-hoc assumptions and accounts in simple fashion for the marked seasonal variations of convective activity and cloud cover in the eastern Pacific. In particular, the weak convective response to SSTs in boreal fall favors the eastern Pacific warming that triggers El Niño events while the increased convective activity and cloud cover during the following spring contributes to the shutdown of those events by blocking incoming shortwave solar radiations. In addition to simulating the ENSO diversity with realistic non-Gaussian statistics in different Niño regions, both the eastern Pacific moderate and super El Niño, the central Pacific El Niño as well as La Niña show a realistic chronology with a tendency to peak in boreal winter as well as decreased predictability in spring consistent with the persistence barrier in nature. The incorporation of other possible seasonal feedbacks in the model is also documented for completeness.

Understanding the Complexity of Temperature Dynamics in Xinjiang, China, from Multitemporal Scale and Spatial Perspectives

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jianhua Xu

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Based on the observed data from 51 meteorological stations during the period from 1958 to 2012 in Xinjiang, China, we investigated the complexity of temperature dynamics from the temporal and spatial perspectives by using a comprehensive approach including the correlation dimension (CD, classical statistics, and geostatistics. The main conclusions are as follows (1 The integer CD values indicate that the temperature dynamics are a complex and chaotic system, which is sensitive to the initial conditions. (2 The complexity of temperature dynamics decreases along with the increase of temporal scale. To describe the temperature dynamics, at least 3 independent variables are needed at daily scale, whereas at least 2 independent variables are needed at monthly, seasonal, and annual scales. (3 The spatial patterns of CD values at different temporal scales indicate that the complex temperature dynamics are derived from the complex landform.

Understanding dynamic friction through spontaneously evolving laboratory earthquakes.

Science.gov (United States)

Rubino, V; Rosakis, A J; Lapusta, N

2017-06-29

Friction plays a key role in how ruptures unzip faults in the Earth's crust and release waves that cause destructive shaking. Yet dynamic friction evolution is one of the biggest uncertainties in earthquake science. Here we report on novel measurements of evolving local friction during spontaneously developing mini-earthquakes in the laboratory, enabled by our ultrahigh speed full-field imaging technique. The technique captures the evolution of displacements, velocities and stresses of dynamic ruptures, whose rupture speed range from sub-Rayleigh to supershear. The observed friction has complex evolution, featuring initial velocity strengthening followed by substantial velocity weakening. Our measurements are consistent with rate-and-state friction formulations supplemented with flash heating but not with widely used slip-weakening friction laws. This study develops a new approach for measuring local evolution of dynamic friction and has important implications for understanding earthquake hazard since laws governing frictional resistance of faults are vital ingredients in physically-based predictive models of the earthquake source.

Evaluation of surface water dynamics for water-food security in seasonal wetlands, north-central Namibia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. Hiyama

2014-09-01

Full Text Available Agricultural use of wetlands is important for food security in various regions. However, land-use changes in wetland areas could alter the water cycle and the ecosystem. To conserve the water environments of wetlands, care is needed when introducing new cropping systems. This study is the first attempt to evaluate the water dynamics in the case of the introduction of rice-millet mixed-cropping systems to the Cuvelai system seasonal wetlands (CSSWs in north-central Namibia. We first investigated seasonal changes in surface water coverage by using satellite remote sensing data. We also assessed the effect of the introduction of rice-millet mixed-cropping systems on evapotranspiration in the CSSWs region. For the former investigation, we used MODIS and AMSR-E satellite remote sensing data. These data showed that at the beginning of the wet season, surface water appears from the southern (lower part and then expands to the northern (higher part of the CSSWs. For the latter investigation, we used data obtained by the classical Bowen ratio-energy balance (BREB method at an experimental field site established in September 2012 on the Ogongo campus, University of Namibia. This analysis showed the importance of water and vegetation conditions when introducing mixed-cropping to the region.

How Well Do Students in Secondary School Understand Temporal Development of Dynamical Systems?

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Forjan, Matej; Grubelnik, Vladimir

2015-01-01

Despite difficulties understanding the dynamics of complex systems only simple dynamical systems without feedback connections have been taught in secondary school physics. Consequently, students do not have opportunities to develop intuition of temporal development of systems, whose dynamics are conditioned by the influence of feedback processes.…

Population dynamics of Eldana saccharina Walker (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae): application of a biophysical model to understand phenological variation in an agricultural pest.

Science.gov (United States)

Kleynhans, E; Barton, M G; Conlong, D E; Terblanche, J S

2017-08-08

Understanding pest population dynamics and seasonal phenology is a critical component of modern integrated pest-management programs. Accurate forecasting allows timely, cost-effective interventions, including maximum efficacy of, for example, biological control and/or sterile insect technique. Due to the variation in life stage-related sensitivity toward climate, insect pest population abundance models are often not easily interpreted or lack direct relevance to management strategies in the field. Here we apply a process-based (biophysical) model that incorporates climate data with life stage-dependent physiology and life history to attempt to predict Eldana saccharina life stage and generation turnover in sugarcane fields. Fitness traits are modelled at two agricultural locations in South Africa that differ in average temperature (hereafter a cold and a warm site). We test whether the life stage population structures in the field entering winter and local climate during winter directly affect development rates, and therefore interact to determine the population dynamics and phenological responses of E. saccharina in subsequent spring and summer seasons. The model predicts that: (1) E. saccharina can cycle through more generations at the warm site where fewer hours of cold and heat stress are endured, and (2) at the cold site, overwintering as pupae (rather than larvae) confer higher relative fitness and fecundity in the subsequent summer adult moths. The model predictions were compared with a large dataset of field observations from scouting records. Model predictions for larval presence (or absence) generally overlapped well with positive (or negative) scout records. These results are important for integrated pest management strategies by providing a useful foundation for future population dynamics models, and are applicable to a variety of agricultural landscapes, but especially the sugarcane industry of South Africa.

Calibration and combination of dynamical seasonal forecasts to enhance the value of predicted probabilities for managing risk

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Dutton, John A.; James, Richard P.; Ross, Jeremy D.

2013-06-01

Seasonal probability forecasts produced with numerical dynamics on supercomputers offer great potential value in managing risk and opportunity created by seasonal variability. The skill and reliability of contemporary forecast systems can be increased by calibration methods that use the historical performance of the forecast system to improve the ongoing real-time forecasts. Two calibration methods are applied to seasonal surface temperature forecasts of the US National Weather Service, the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, and to a World Climate Service multi-model ensemble created by combining those two forecasts with Bayesian methods. As expected, the multi-model is somewhat more skillful and more reliable than the original models taken alone. The potential value of the multimodel in decision making is illustrated with the profits achieved in simulated trading of a weather derivative. In addition to examining the seasonal models, the article demonstrates that calibrated probability forecasts of weekly average temperatures for leads of 2-4 weeks are also skillful and reliable. The conversion of ensemble forecasts into probability distributions of impact variables is illustrated with degree days derived from the temperature forecasts. Some issues related to loss of stationarity owing to long-term warming are considered. The main conclusion of the article is that properly calibrated probabilistic forecasts possess sufficient skill and reliability to contribute to effective decisions in government and business activities that are sensitive to intraseasonal and seasonal climate variability.

Seasonality of primary and secondary production in an Arctic river

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Kendrick, M.; Huryn, A.; Deegan, L.

2011-12-01

Rivers and streams that freeze solid for 8-9 months each year provide excellent examples of the extreme seasonality of arctic habitats. The communities of organisms inhabiting these rivers must complete growth and development during summer, resulting in a rapid ramp-up and down of production over the short ice-free period. The effects of recent shifts in the timing of the spring thaw and autumn freeze-up on the duration and pattern of the period of active production are poorly understood. We are currently investigating: 1) the response of the biotic community of the Kuparuk River (Arctic Alaska) to shifts in the seasonality of the ice-free period, and 2) the community response to increases in phosphorous (P) supply anticipated as the volume of the permafrost active-layer increases in response to climate warming. Here algal production supports a 2-tier web of consumers. We tracked primary and secondary production from the spring thaw through mid-August in a reference reach and one receiving low-level P fertilization. Gross primary production/community respiration (GPP/R) ratios for both reaches were increasing through mid-July, with higher GPP/R in response to the P addition. Understanding the degree of synchrony between primary and secondary production in this Arctic river system will enhance further understanding of how shifts in seasonality affect trophic dynamics.

Dynamics of size-fractionated phytoplankton biomass in a monsoonal estuary: Patterns and drivers for seasonal and spatial variability

Science.gov (United States)

Rajaneesh, K. M.; Mitbavkar, Smita; Anil, Arga Chandrashekar

2018-07-01

Phytoplankton size-fractionated biomass is an important determinant of the type of food web functioning in aquatic ecosystems. Knowledge about the effect of seasonal salinity gradient on the size-fractionated biomass dynamics is still lacking, especially in tropical estuaries experiencing monsoon. The phytoplankton size-fractionated chlorophyll a biomass (>3 μm and 3 μm size-fraction was the major contributor to the total phytoplankton chlorophyll a biomass with the ephemeral dominance of biomass concentration of both size-fractions showed signs of recovery with increasing salinity downstream towards the end of the monsoon season. In contrast, the chlorophyll a biomass response was size-dependent during the non-monsoon seasons with the sporadic dominance (>50%) of biomass during high water temperature episodes from downstream to middle estuary during pre-monsoon and at low salinity and high nutrient conditions upstream during post-monsoon. These conditions also influenced the picophytoplankton community structure with picoeukaryotes dominating during the pre-monsoon, phycoerythrin containing Synechococcus during the monsoon and phycocyanin containing Synechococcus during the post-monsoon. This study highlights switching over of dominance in size-fractionated phytoplankton chlorophyll a biomass at intra, inter-seasonal and spatial scales which will likely govern the estuarine trophodynamics.

Seasonal dynamics of Proteocephalus sagittus in the stone loach Barbatula barbatula from the Haná River, Czech Republic

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Jarkovský, J.; Koubková, B.; Scholz, Tomáš; Prokeš, Miroslav; Baruš, Vlastimil

2004-01-01

Roč. 78, č. 3 (2004), s. 225-229 ISSN 0022-149X R&D Projects: GA ČR GA524/01/1314; GA AV ČR IAA6093104 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z6022909; CEZ:AV0Z6093917 Keywords : Cestoda * Proteocephalus sagittus * seasonal dynamics Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 0.676, year: 2004

Seasonal climate manipulations have only minor effects on litter decomposition rates and N dynamics but strong effects on litter P dynamics of sub-arctic bog species.

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Aerts, R; Callaghan, T V; Dorrepaal, E; van Logtestijn, R S P; Cornelissen, J H C

2012-11-01

Litter decomposition and nutrient mineralization in high-latitude peatlands are constrained by low temperatures. So far, little is known about the effects of seasonal components of climate change (higher spring and summer temperatures, more snow which leads to higher winter soil temperatures) on these processes. In a 4-year field experiment, we manipulated these seasonal components in a sub-arctic bog and studied the effects on the decomposition and N and P dynamics of leaf litter of Calamagrostis lapponica, Betula nana, and Rubus chamaemorus, incubated both in a common ambient environment and in the treatment plots. Mass loss in the controls increased in the order Calamagrostis Litter chemistry showed within each incubation environment only a few and species-specific responses. Compared to the interspecific differences, they resulted in only moderate climate treatment effects on mass loss and these differed among seasons and species. Neither N nor P mineralization in the litter were affected by the incubation environment. Remarkably, for all species, no net N mineralization had occurred in any of the treatments during 4 years. Species differed in P-release patterns, and summer warming strongly stimulated P release for all species. Thus, moderate changes in summer temperatures and/or winter snow addition have limited effects on litter decomposition rates and N dynamics, but summer warming does stimulate litter P release. As a result, N-limitation of plant growth in this sub-arctic bog may be sustained or even further promoted.

Seasonal growth dynamics of the seagrass Zostera caulescens on the eastern coast of Korea

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Kim, Jong-Hyeob; Park, Sang Hoon; Kim, Young Kyun; Kim, Seung Hyeon; Park, Jung-Im; Lee, Kun-Seop

2014-12-01

Zostera caulescens is an endemic seagrass species in Northeastern Asia. Estimated distributional area of this species is approximately 1-5 km2 on the coasts of Korea. Because Z. caulescens has a very limited distribution, the growth dynamics of Z. caulescens is little known in the coastal waters of Korea. In the present study, we investigated the growth dynamics of Z. caulescens in relation to coincident measurements of environmental factors, such as underwater irradiance, water temperature, and nutrient availability. The study was conducted on a monotypic meadow of Z. caulescens in Uljin on the eastern coast of Korea from September 2011 to September 2012. Shoot density and biomass of Z. caulescens showed distinct seasonal variations, and exhibited strong correlations with water temperature suggesting that the seasonal growth of this species was regulated by water temperature. Shoot density and biomass rapidly decreased during the high water temperature period in summer, and thus Z. caulescens is considered a cold water adapted species like other temperate seagrass species on coasts of Korea. Biomass of photosynthetic leaf tissues on reproductive shoots was approximately 4 times higher than that on vegetative shoots. The height of reproductive shoots ranged from 1.2 m in February 2012 to 3.2 m in August 2012, whereas the height of vegetative shoots was usually less than 1.0 m. Leaf tissues on reproductive shoots probably received much more light for photosynthesis than those on vegetative shoots. Thus, reproductive shoots may play an important role in total production of Z. caulescens.

Can Dynamic Visualizations Improve Middle School Students' Understanding of Energy in Photosynthesis?

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Ryoo, Kihyun; Linn, Marcia C.

2012-01-01

Dynamic visualizations have the potential to make abstract scientific phenomena more accessible and visible to students, but they can also be confusing and difficult to comprehend. This research investigates how dynamic visualizations, compared to static illustrations, can support middle school students in developing an integrated understanding of…

Effects of thermal vapor diffusion on seasonal dynamics of water in the unsaturated zone

Science.gov (United States)

Milly, Paul C.D.

1996-01-01

The response of water in the unsaturated zone to seasonal changes of temperature (T) is determined analytically using the theory of nonisothermal water transport in porous media, and the solutions are tested against field observations of moisture potential and bomb fallout isotopic (36Cl and 3H) concentrations. Seasonally varying land surface temperatures and the resulting subsurface temperature gradients induce thermal vapor diffusion. The annual mean vertical temperature gradient is close to zero; however, the annual mean thermal vapor flux is downward, because the temperature‐dependent vapor diffusion coefficient is larger, on average, during downward diffusion (occurring at high T) than during upward diffusion (low T). The annual mean thermal vapor flux is shown to decay exponentially with depth; the depth (about 1 m) at which it decays to e−1of its surface value is one half of the corresponding decay depth for the amplitude of seasonal temperature changes. This depth‐dependent annual mean flux is effectively a source of water, which must be balanced by a flux divergence associated with other transport processes. In a relatively humid environment the liquid fluxes greatly exceed the thermal vapor fluxes, so such a balance is readily achieved without measurable effect on the dynamics of water in the unsaturated zone. However, if the mean vertical water flux through the unsaturated zone is very small (theoretical prediction is supported by long‐term field measurements in the Chihuahuan Desert. The analysis also makes predictions, confirmed by the field observations, regarding the seasonal variations of matric potential at a given depth. The conceptual model of unsaturated zone water transport developed here implies the possibility of near‐surface trapping of any aqueous constituent introduced at the surface.

From Fall to Spring, or Spring to Fall? Seasonal Cholera Transmission Cycles and Implications for Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Akanda, A. S.; Jutla, A. S.; Huq, A.; Colwell, R.; Islam, S.; WE Reason

2010-12-01

Cholera remains a major public health threat in many developing countries around the world. The striking seasonality and the annual recurrence of this infectious disease in endemic areas continues to be of considerable interest to scientists and public health workers. Despite major advances in the ecological, and microbiological understanding of Vibrio cholerae, the causative agent, the role of underlying macro-scale hydroclimatic processes in propagating the disease in different seasons and years is not well understood. The incidence of cholera in the Bengal Delta region, the ‘native homeland’ of cholera, shows distinct biannual peaks in the southern floodplains, as opposed to single annual peaks in coastal areas and the northern parts of Bangladesh, as well as other cholera-endemic regions in the world. A coupled analysis of the regional hydroclimate and cholera incidence reveals a strong association of the spatio-temporal variability of incidence peaks with seasonal processes and extreme events. At a seasonal scale, the cycles indicate a spring-fall transmission pattern, contrary to the prevalent notion of a fall-spring transmission cycle. We show that the asymmetric seasonal hydroclimatology affects regional cholera dynamics by providing a coastal growth environment for bacteria in spring, while propagating transmission to fall by flooding. This seasonal interpretation of the progression of cholera has important implications, for formulating effective cholera intervention and mitigation efforts through improved water management and understanding the impacts of changing climate patterns on seasonal cholera transmission. (Water Environental Research Education Actionable Solutions Network)

Critical realism in supply chain research: Understanding the dynamics of a seasonal goods supply chain

OpenAIRE

Adamides, E. D.; Papachristos, G.; Pomonis, N.

2012-01-01

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to show how a critical realist paradigmatic stance and its associated research methodology can contribute to supply‐chain research by providing explanations for specific supply‐chain‐ and logistics‐related dynamic phenomena. / Design/methodology/approach – Initially, the case for a critical realist research paradigm is made, and then a retroductive pluralistic research methodology is used for demonstrating its application. Starting from an observation in...

Seasonal dynamics and effects of nitrogen supply rate on nitrogen and carbohydrate reserves in cutting-derived Salix viminalis plants

Science.gov (United States)

Lars Bollmark; Lisa Sennerby-Forsse; Tom Ericsson

1999-01-01

Nurient storage is an important aspect of resprouting potential and production of Salix viminalis L., a pioneer species used for biomas production in weden. Seasonal dynamics of nitrogen (N), protien, soluble arbohydrates, starches, and lipids were studied in roots, cutting, stems, and leaves during a full growth cycle induced by varying photoperiod...

Impacts of Land Cover and Seasonal Variation on Maximum Air Temperature Estimation Using MODIS Imagery

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yulin Cai

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Daily maximum surface air temperature (Tamax is a crucial factor for understanding complex land surface processes under rapid climate change. Remote detection of Tamax has widely relied on the empirical relationship between air temperature and land surface temperature (LST, a product derived from remote sensing. However, little is known about how such a relationship is affected by the high heterogeneity in landscapes and dynamics in seasonality. This study aims to advance our understanding of the roles of land cover and seasonal variation in the estimation of Tamax using the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer LST product. We developed statistical models to link Tamax and LST in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in China for five major land-cover types (i.e., forest, shrub, water, impervious surface, cropland, and grassland and two seasons (i.e., growing season and non-growing season. Results show that the performance of modeling the Tamax-LST relationship was highly dependent on land cover and seasonal variation. Estimating Tamax over grasslands and water bodies achieved superior performance; while uncertainties were high over forested lands that contained extensive heterogeneity in species types, plant structure, and topography. We further found that all the land-cover specific models developed for the plant non-growing season outperformed the corresponding models developed for the growing season. Discrepancies in model performance mainly occurred in the vegetated areas (forest, cropland, and shrub, suggesting an important role of plant phenology in defining the statistical relationship between Tamax and LST. For impervious surfaces, the challenge of capturing the high spatial heterogeneity in urban settings using the low-resolution MODIS data made Tamax estimation a difficult task, which was especially true in the growing season.

Challenges and opportunities for improved understanding of regional climate dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Collins, Matthew; Minobe, Shoshiro; Barreiro, Marcelo; Bordoni, Simona; Kaspi, Yohai; Kuwano-Yoshida, Akira; Keenlyside, Noel; Manzini, Elisa; O'Reilly, Christopher H.; Sutton, Rowan; Xie, Shang-Ping; Zolina, Olga

2018-01-01

Dynamical processes in the atmosphere and ocean are central to determining the large-scale drivers of regional climate change, yet their predictive understanding is poor. Here, we identify three frontline challenges in climate dynamics where significant progress can be made to inform adaptation: response of storms, blocks and jet streams to external forcing; basin-to-basin and tropical-extratropical teleconnections; and the development of non-linear predictive theory. We highlight opportunities and techniques for making immediate progress in these areas, which critically involve the development of high-resolution coupled model simulations, partial coupling or pacemaker experiments, as well as the development and use of dynamical metrics and exploitation of hierarchies of models.

Managing living marine resources in a dynamic environment: The role of seasonal to decadal climate forecasts

Science.gov (United States)

Tommasi, Desiree; Stock, Charles A.; Hobday, Alistair J.; Methot, Rick; Kaplan, Isaac C.; Eveson, J. Paige; Holsman, Kirstin; Miller, Timothy J.; Gaichas, Sarah; Gehlen, Marion; Pershing, Andrew; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Msadek, Rym; Delworth, Tom; Eakin, C. Mark; Haltuch, Melissa A.; Séférian, Roland; Spillman, Claire M.; Hartog, Jason R.; Siedlecki, Samantha; Samhouri, Jameal F.; Muhling, Barbara; Asch, Rebecca G.; Pinsky, Malin L.; Saba, Vincent S.; Kapnick, Sarah B.; Gaitan, Carlos F.; Rykaczewski, Ryan R.; Alexander, Michael A.; Xue, Yan; Pegion, Kathleen V.; Lynch, Patrick; Payne, Mark R.; Kristiansen, Trond; Lehodey, Patrick; Werner, Francisco E.

2017-03-01

Recent developments in global dynamical climate prediction systems have allowed for skillful predictions of climate variables relevant to living marine resources (LMRs) at a scale useful to understanding and managing LMRs. Such predictions present opportunities for improved LMR management and industry operations, as well as new research avenues in fisheries science. LMRs respond to climate variability via changes in physiology and behavior. For species and systems where climate-fisheries links are well established, forecasted LMR responses can lead to anticipatory and more effective decisions, benefitting both managers and stakeholders. Here, we provide an overview of climate prediction systems and advances in seasonal to decadal prediction of marine-resource relevant environmental variables. We then describe a range of climate-sensitive LMR decisions that can be taken at lead-times of months to decades, before highlighting a range of pioneering case studies using climate predictions to inform LMR decisions. The success of these case studies suggests that many additional applications are possible. Progress, however, is limited by observational and modeling challenges. Priority developments include strengthening of the mechanistic linkages between climate and marine resource responses, development of LMR models able to explicitly represent such responses, integration of climate driven LMR dynamics in the multi-driver context within which marine resources exist, and improved prediction of ecosystem-relevant variables at the fine regional scales at which most marine resource decisions are made. While there are fundamental limits to predictability, continued advances in these areas have considerable potential to make LMR managers and industry decision more resilient to climate variability and help sustain valuable resources. Concerted dialog between scientists, LMR managers and industry is essential to realizing this potential.

Co-existence of Anaerobic Ammonium Oxidation Bacteria and Denitrifying Anaerobic Methane Oxidation Bacteria in Sewage Sludge: Community Diversity and Seasonal Dynamics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Xu, Sai; Lu, Wenjing; Mustafa, Muhammad Farooq

2017-01-01

Anaerobic ammonium oxidation (ANAMMOX) and denitrifying anaerobic methane oxidation (DAMO) have been recently discovered as relevant processes in the carbon and nitrogen cycles of wastewater treatment plants. In this study, the seasonal dynamics of ANAMMOX and DAMO bacterial community structures......, and an unknown cluster was primarily detected in autumn and winter. Similar patterns of seasonal variation in the community structure of DAMO bacteria were also observed. Group B was the dominant in spring and summer, whereas in autumn and winter, group A and group B presented almost the same proportion...

Dynamics of the Water Circulations in the Southern South China Sea and Its Seasonal Transports.

Science.gov (United States)

Daryabor, Farshid; Ooi, See Hai; Samah, Azizan Abu; Akbari, Abolghasem

2016-01-01

A three-dimensional Regional Ocean Modeling System is used to study the seasonal water circulations and transports of the Southern South China Sea. The simulated seasonal water circulations and estimated transports show consistency with observations, e.g., satellite altimeter data set and re-analysis data of the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation. It is found that the seasonal water circulations are mainly driven by the monsoonal wind stress and influenced by the water outflow/inflow and associated currents of the entire South China Sea. The intrusion of the strong current along the East Coast of Peninsular Malaysia and the eddies at different depths in all seasons are due to the conservation of the potential vorticity as the depth increases. Results show that the water circulation patterns in the northern part of the East Coast of Peninsular Malaysia are generally dominated by the geostrophic currents while those in the southern areas are due solely to the wind stress because of negligible Coriolis force there. This study clearly shows that individual surface freshwater flux (evaporation minus precipitation) controls the sea salinity balance in the Southern South China Sea thermohaline circulations. Analysis of climatological data from a high resolution Regional Ocean Modeling System reveals that the complex bathymetry is important not only for water exchange through the Southern South China Sea but also in regulating various transports across the main passages in the Southern South China Sea, namely the Sunda Shelf and the Strait of Malacca. Apart from the above, in comparision with the dynamics of the Sunda Shelf, the Strait of Malacca reflects an equally significant role in the annual transports into the Andaman Sea.

Effects of drought season length on live moisture content dynamic in Mediterranean shrubs: 8 years of data

Science.gov (United States)

Pellizzaro, Grazia; Ventura, Andrea; Bortolu, Sara; Duce, Pierpaolo

2017-04-01

Mediterranean shrubs are an important component of Mediterranean vegetation communities. In this kind of vegetation, live fuel is a relevant component of the available fuel which catches fire and, consequently, its water content plays an important role in determining fire occurrence and spread. In live plant, water content patterns are related to both environmental conditions (e.g. meteorological variables, soil water availability) and ecophysiological characteristics of the plant species. According to projections on future climate, an increase in risk of summer droughts is likely to take place in Southern Europe. More prolonged drought seasons induced by climatic changes are likely to influence general flammability characteristics of fuel. In addition, variations in precipitation and mean temperature could directly affect fuel water status and length of critical periods of high ignition danger for Mediterranean ecosystems. The aims of this work were to analyse the influence of both weather seasonality and inter-annual weather variability on live fuel moisture content within and among some common Mediterranean species, and to investigate the effects of prolonged drought season on live moisture content dynamic. The study was carried out in North Sardinia (Italy). Measurements of LFMC seasonal pattern of two really common and flammable Mediterranean shrub species (Cistus monspeliensis and Rosmarinus officinalis) were performed periodically for 8 years. Meteorological variables were also recorded. Relationships between live fuel moisture content and environmental conditions (i.e. rainfall, air temperature and soil moisture) were investigated and effects of different lengths of drought season on LFMC pattern were analysed. Results showed that distribution and amount of rainfall affected seasonal variation of live fuel moisture content. In particular more prolonged drought seasons caused a longer period in which LFMC was below 95 -100% that is commonly considered as

Density and climate influence seasonal population dynamics in an Arctic ungulate

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mortensen, Lars O.; Moshøj, Charlotte; Forchhammer, Mads C.

2016-01-01

The locally migratory behavior of the high arctic muskox (Ovibos muschatus) is a central component of the breeding and winter survival strategies applied to cope with the highly seasonal arctic climate. However, altered climate regimes affecting plant growth are likely to affect local migration...... cover), forage availability (length of growth season), and the number of adult females available per male (operational sex ratio) influence changes in the seasonal density dependence, abundance, and immigration rate of muskoxen into the valley. The results suggested summer temperature as the major...... controlling factor in the seasonal, local-scale migration of muskoxen at Zackenberg. Specifically, higher summer temperatures, defined as the cumulative average daily positive degrees in June, July, and August, resulted in decreased density dependence and, consequently, increase in the seasonal abundance...

The Effect of Seasonal Weather Variation on the Dynamics of the Plague Disease

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rigobert C. Ngeleja

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Plague is a historic disease which is also known to be the most devastating disease that ever occurred in human history, caused by gram-negative bacteria known as Yersinia pestis. The disease is mostly affected by variations of weather conditions as it disturbs the normal behavior of main plague disease transmission agents, namely, human beings, rodents, fleas, and pathogens, in the environment. This in turn changes the way they interact with each other and ultimately leads to a periodic transmission of plague disease. In this paper, we formulate a periodic epidemic model system by incorporating seasonal transmission rate in order to study the effect of seasonal weather variation on the dynamics of plague disease. We compute the basic reproduction number of a proposed model. We then use numerical simulation to illustrate the effect of different weather dependent parameters on the basic reproduction number. We are able to deduce that infection rate, progression rates from primary forms of plague disease to more severe forms of plague disease, and the infectious flea abundance affect, to a large extent, the number of bubonic, septicemic, and pneumonic plague infective agents. We recommend that it is more reasonable to consider these factors that have been shown to have a significant effect on RT for effective control strategies.

The northern tidal dynamic of Aceh waters: A 3D numerical model

Science.gov (United States)

Irham, M.; Miswar, E.; Ilhamsyah, Y.; Setiawan, I.

2018-05-01

The northern tidal dynamic of Aceh waters studied by employing three-dimensional (3D) numerical hydrodynamic model. The purpose of this study is to understand the phenomena and the characteristic of the northern tidal dynamic of Aceh waters. The research used the explicit-splitting scheme numerical model of Navier-Stokes formulation. The result displays that the vertical rotation of flow movement (vertical eddy) at a depth of 15 to 25 meter eastern part of the study area. Hence, the result also informs that the current circulation identically to the upwelling in the western region of Aceh during the wet season and vice versa. However, during the transitional season, the flow circulation depends on how the tidal dynamic occurs in the area.

Continuous Measurements of Canopy-level Solar-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence for Inferring Diurnal and Seasonal Dynamics of Photosynthesis in Crop Fields in the Midwestern USA

Science.gov (United States)

Miao, G.; Guan, K.; Yang, X.; Bernacchi, C.; DeLucia, E. H.; Cai, Y.; Masters, M. D.; Peng, B.

2016-12-01

Plants emitted photons of red and far-red light, called chlorophyll fluorescence, after sunlight absorption for photosynthesis. This solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) is generated simultaneously while plants actively photosynthesize. The link between photosynthesis and SIF resulting from the competition for the same excitation energy has long been investigated and applied for inferring the rate of photosynthesis. Recent development of continuous SIF observational technology is furthering the inferring potential as well as our understandings of fluctuations of SIF and photosynthesis with changes in environmental conditions. To better understand this photosynthesis-SIF link at multiple time scales and their relationships with environmental drivers, we deployed two newly developed tower-based SIF systems (FluoSpec) in a corn (Zea mays L., C4 plant) field and a soybean (Glycine max L., C3 plant) field at University of Illinois Energy Farm and conducted continuous near-surface SIF measurements at canopy scale from mid-growing season of 2016. Eddy covariance flux towers were installed in parallel at both sites for canopy-scale gas exchange measurements. Relationship between SIF and flux tower photosynthesis will be analyzed to derive the empirical models for photosynthesis retrieval from SIF signals. Preliminary results indicate that canopy SIF can reflect diurnal and seasonal dynamics of photosynthesis. Mechanistic analysis on SIF fluctuations and responses to environmental variations will be conducted as well for a closer look at mechanism of photosynthetic responses. Corn and soybean SIF and photosynthesis-SIF relationship will be compared to investigate the difference between C4 and C3 plants.

Seasonal dynamics of light absorption by chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) in the NW Mediterranean Sea (BOUSSOLE site)

Science.gov (United States)

Organelli, Emanuele; Bricaud, Annick; Antoine, David; Matsuoka, Atsushi

2014-09-01

We analyze a two-year time-series of chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) light absorption measurements in the upper 400 m of the water column at the BOUSSOLE site in the NW Mediterranean Sea. The seasonal dynamics of the CDOM light absorption coefficients at 440 nm (acdom(440)) is essentially characterized by (i) subsurface maxima forming in spring and progressively reinforcing throughout summer, (ii) impoverishment in the surface layer throughout summer and (iii) vertical homogeneity in winter. Seasonal variations of the spectral dependence of CDOM absorption, as described by the exponential slope value (Scdom), are characterized by highest values in summer and autumn at the surface and low values at the depths of acdom(440) subsurface maxima or just below them. Variations of acdom(440) are likely controlled by microbial digestion of phytoplankton cells, which leads to CDOM production, and by photochemical destruction (photobleaching), which leads to CDOM degradation. Photobleaching is also the main driver of Scdom variations. Consistently with previous observations, acdom(440) for a given chlorophyll a concentration is higher than expected from Case I waters bio-optical models. The total non-water light absorption budget shows that surface waters at the BOUSSOLE site are largely dominated by CDOM during all seasons but the algal bloom in March and April. These results improve the knowledge of CDOM absorption dynamics in the Mediterranean Sea, which is scarcely documented. In addition, they open the way to improved algorithms for the retrieval of CDOM absorption from field or satellite radiometric measurements.

Seasonal dynamics of the plant community and soil seed bank along a successional gradient in a subalpine meadow on the Tibetan Plateau.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Miaojun Ma

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Knowledge about how change the importance of soil seed bank and relationship between seed mass and abundance during vegetation succession is crucial for understanding vegetation dynamics. Many studies have been conducted, but their ecological mechanisms of community assembly are not fully understood. METHODOLOGY: We examined the seasonal dynamics of the vegetation and soil seed bank as well as seed size distribution along a successional gradient. We also explored the potential role of the soil seed bank in plant community regeneration, the relationship between seed mass and species abundance, and the relative importance of deterministic and stochastic processes along a successional gradient. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Species richness of seed bank increased (shallow layer and the total and seed density decreased (each layer and the total significantly with succession. Species richness and seed density differed significantly between different seasons and among soil depths. Seed mass showed a significant negative relationship with relative abundance in the earliest successional stage, but the relationships were not significant in later stages. Seed mass showed no relationship with relative abundance in the whole successional series in seed bank. Results were similar for both July 2005 and April 2006. CONCLUSIONS: The seed mass and abundance relationship was determined by a complex interaction between small and larger seeded species and environmental factors. Both stochastic processes and deterministic processes were important determinants of the structure of the earliest stage. The importance of seed bank decreased with succession. The restoration of abandoned farmed and grazed meadows to the species-rich subalpine meadow in Tibetan Plateau can be successfully achieved from the soil seed bank. However, at least 20 years are required to fully restore an abandoned agricultural meadow to a natural mature subalpine meadow.

Markov Processes: Exploring the Use of Dynamic Visualizations to Enhance Student Understanding

Science.gov (United States)

Pfannkuch, Maxine; Budgett, Stephanie

2016-01-01

Finding ways to enhance introductory students' understanding of probability ideas and theory is a goal of many first-year probability courses. In this article, we explore the potential of a prototype tool for Markov processes using dynamic visualizations to develop in students a deeper understanding of the equilibrium and hitting times…

Seasonality as a Parrondian game

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Peacock-Lopez, Enrique, E-mail: epeacock@williams.edu [Department of Chemistry, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch, 7701 Cape Town (South Africa)

2011-08-15

Switching strategies can be related to the so-called Parrondian games, where the alternation of two losing games yields a winning game. We consider two dynamics that by themselves yield undesirable behaviors, but when alternated, yield a desirable oscillatory behavior. In the analysis of the alternate-logistic map, we prove that alternating parameter values yielding extinction with parameter values associated with chaotic dynamics results in periodic trajectories. Ultimately, we consider a four season logistic model with either migration or immigration. -- Highlights: → We consider the logistic map as a population model and include parameter switching. → From bifurcation diagrams, we find parameters that follow the Parrondian Paradox. → We study a four-season Parrondian model that includes migration or immigration.

Seasonality as a Parrondian game

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peacock-Lopez, Enrique

2011-01-01

Switching strategies can be related to the so-called Parrondian games, where the alternation of two losing games yields a winning game. We consider two dynamics that by themselves yield undesirable behaviors, but when alternated, yield a desirable oscillatory behavior. In the analysis of the alternate-logistic map, we prove that alternating parameter values yielding extinction with parameter values associated with chaotic dynamics results in periodic trajectories. Ultimately, we consider a four season logistic model with either migration or immigration. -- Highlights: → We consider the logistic map as a population model and include parameter switching. → From bifurcation diagrams, we find parameters that follow the Parrondian Paradox. → We study a four-season Parrondian model that includes migration or immigration.

Modern Instrumentation of a Historical Landslide to Understand Dynamic Processes Governing Slope Movement in a Hostile Environment.

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, K. A.

2017-12-01

The Milepost 6.2 Landslide on Many Glacier Road in Glacier National Park, Montana, has been moving since construction of the roadway in the early 1900's. Movement of the slide has a direct impact on Park operations and requires regrading and reconstruction of the road on a nearly annual basis. Prior attempts to stabilize the slope were not effective. Despite the history of this slide, very little quality data was available to delineate the depth and shape of the slide or the groundwater pressures that influence slope stability due to only seasonal data collection and a hostile winter environment. Landslide dynamics are further complicated where the toe of the slide becomes submerged seasonally by Lake Sherburne. In addition, due to irrigation use the lake levels fluctuate rapidly with seasonal rise and drops commonly greater than 30 feet in elevation. Five Shape Accelerometer Array inclinometers (SAAs) were installed to depths between 60 and 200 feet, along with 10 vibrating wire piezometers, one tipping bucket rain gauge, and onsite data acquisition system with a real-time satellite communication link enabling year-round data collection. Measurements of groundwater pressures and slide dynamics were used to develop a well constrained 2-D dynamic model of slide movement. Movement is controlled by clayey zones in glacial till deposits that mantle the valley slopes, along with water pressures from groundwater in the slope and fluctuating lake levels at the toe of the slope. The SAAs document slide plane locations and rates of slide movement as it changes through the year in response to the dynamic hydrologic setting. SAAs document sliding of over 3 feet and continue to operate and generate additional data. The data collected enabled the design of an extensive horizontal drain system to lower the groundwater pressures and stabilize the slope. Continuous year-round monitoring allowed comparison of slope movement in response to changes in lake elevation and precipitation

Toward Understanding the Dynamics of Microbial Communities in an Estuarine System

KAUST Repository

Zhang, Weipeng; Bougouffa, Salim; Wang, Yong; Lee, On On; Yang, Jiangke; Chan, Colin; Song, Xingyu; Qian, Pei-Yuan

2014-01-01

Community assembly theories such as species sorting theory provide a framework for understanding the structures and dynamics of local communities. The effect of theoretical mechanisms can vary with the scales of observation and effects of specific environmental factors. Based on 16S rRNA gene tag pyrosequencing, different structures and temporal succession patterns were discovered between the surface sediments and bottom water microbial communities in the Pearl River Estuary (PRE). The microbial communities in the surface sediment samples were more diverse than those in the bottom water samples, and several genera were specific for the water or sediment communities. Moreover, water temperature was identified as the main variable driving community dynamics and the microbial communities in the sediment showed a greater temporal change. We speculate that nutrient-based species sorting and bacterial plasticity to the temperature contribute to the variations observed between sediment and water communities in the PRE. This study provides a more comprehensive understanding of the microbial community structures in a highly dynamic estuarine system and sheds light on the applicability of ecological theoretical mechanisms.

Toward understanding the dynamics of microbial communities in an estuarine system.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Weipeng Zhang

Full Text Available Community assembly theories such as species sorting theory provide a framework for understanding the structures and dynamics of local communities. The effect of theoretical mechanisms can vary with the scales of observation and effects of specific environmental factors. Based on 16S rRNA gene tag pyrosequencing, different structures and temporal succession patterns were discovered between the surface sediments and bottom water microbial communities in the Pearl River Estuary (PRE. The microbial communities in the surface sediment samples were more diverse than those in the bottom water samples, and several genera were specific for the water or sediment communities. Moreover, water temperature was identified as the main variable driving community dynamics and the microbial communities in the sediment showed a greater temporal change. We speculate that nutrient-based species sorting and bacterial plasticity to the temperature contribute to the variations observed between sediment and water communities in the PRE. This study provides a more comprehensive understanding of the microbial community structures in a highly dynamic estuarine system and sheds light on the applicability of ecological theoretical mechanisms.

Toward Understanding the Dynamics of Microbial Communities in an Estuarine System

KAUST Repository

Zhang, Weipeng

2014-04-14

Community assembly theories such as species sorting theory provide a framework for understanding the structures and dynamics of local communities. The effect of theoretical mechanisms can vary with the scales of observation and effects of specific environmental factors. Based on 16S rRNA gene tag pyrosequencing, different structures and temporal succession patterns were discovered between the surface sediments and bottom water microbial communities in the Pearl River Estuary (PRE). The microbial communities in the surface sediment samples were more diverse than those in the bottom water samples, and several genera were specific for the water or sediment communities. Moreover, water temperature was identified as the main variable driving community dynamics and the microbial communities in the sediment showed a greater temporal change. We speculate that nutrient-based species sorting and bacterial plasticity to the temperature contribute to the variations observed between sediment and water communities in the PRE. This study provides a more comprehensive understanding of the microbial community structures in a highly dynamic estuarine system and sheds light on the applicability of ecological theoretical mechanisms.

Understanding influenza vaccine protection in the community: an assessment of the 2013 influenza season in Victoria, Australia.

Science.gov (United States)

Carville, Kylie S; Grant, Kristina A; Sullivan, Sheena G; Fielding, James E; Lane, Courtney R; Franklin, Lucinda; Druce, Julian; Kelly, Heath A

2015-01-03

The influenza virus undergoes frequent antigenic drift, necessitating annual review of the composition of the influenza vaccine. Vaccination is an important strategy for reducing the impact and burden of influenza, and estimating vaccine effectiveness (VE) each year informs surveillance and preventative measures. We aimed to describe the influenza season and to estimate the effectiveness of the influenza vaccine in Victoria, Australia, in 2013. Routine laboratory notifications, general practitioner sentinel surveillance (including a medical deputising service) data, and sentinel hospital admission surveillance data for the influenza season (29 April to 27 October 2013) were collated in Victoria, Australia, to describe influenza-like illness or confirmed influenza during the season. General practitioner sentinel surveillance data were used to estimate VE against medically-attended laboratory confirmed influenza. VE was estimated using the case test negative design as 1-adjusted odds ratio (odds of vaccination in cases compared with controls) × 100%. Cases tested positive for influenza while non-cases (controls) tested negative. Estimates were adjusted for age group, week of onset, time to swabbing and co-morbidities. The 2013 influenza season was characterised by relatively low activity with a late peak. Influenza B circulation preceded that of influenza A(H1)pdm09, with very little influenza A(H3) circulation. Adjusted VE for all influenza was 55% (95%CI: -11, 82), for influenza A(H1)pdm09 was 43% (95%CI: -132, 86), and for influenza B was 56% (95%CI: -51, 87) Imputation of missing data raised the influenza VE point estimate to 64% (95%CI: 13, 85). Clinicians can continue to promote a positive approach to influenza vaccination, understanding that inactivated influenza vaccines prevent at least 50% of laboratory-confirmed outcomes in hospitals and the community. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Seasonality in ocean microbial communities.

Science.gov (United States)

Giovannoni, Stephen J; Vergin, Kevin L

2012-02-10

Ocean warming occurs every year in seasonal cycles that can help us to understand long-term responses of plankton to climate change. Rhythmic seasonal patterns of microbial community turnover are revealed when high-resolution measurements of microbial plankton diversity are applied to samples collected in lengthy time series. Seasonal cycles in microbial plankton are complex, but the expansion of fixed ocean stations monitoring long-term change and the development of automated instrumentation are providing the time-series data needed to understand how these cycles vary across broad geographical scales. By accumulating data and using predictive modeling, we gain insights into changes that will occur as the ocean surface continues to warm and as the extent and duration of ocean stratification increase. These developments will enable marine scientists to predict changes in geochemical cycles mediated by microbial communities and to gauge their broader impacts.

Seasonal Dynamics of Phlebotomine Sand Fly Species Proven Vectors of Mediterranean Leishmaniasis Caused by Leishmania infantum.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bulent Alten

2016-02-01

Full Text Available The recent geographical expansion of phlebotomine vectors of Leishmania infantum in the Mediterranean subregion has been attributed to ongoing climate changes. At these latitudes, the activity of sand flies is typically seasonal; because seasonal phenomena are also sensitive to general variations in climate, current phenological data sets can provide a baseline for continuing investigations on sand fly population dynamics that may impact on future scenarios of leishmaniasis transmission. With this aim, in 2011-2013 a consortium of partners from eight Mediterranean countries carried out entomological investigations in sites where L. infantum transmission was recently reported.A common protocol for sand fly collection included monthly captures by CDC light traps, complemented by sticky traps in most of the sites. Collections were replicated for more than one season in order to reduce the effects of local weather events. In each site, the trapping effort was left unchanged throughout the survey to legitimate inter-seasonal comparisons. Data from 99,000 collected specimens were analyzed, resulting in the description of seasonal dynamics of 56,000 sand flies belonging to L. infantum vector species throughout a wide geographical area, namely P. perniciosus (Portugal, Spain and Italy, P. ariasi (France, P. neglectus (Greece, P. tobbi (Cyprus and Turkey, P. balcanicus and P. kandelakii (Georgia. Time of sand fly appearance/disappearance in collections differed between sites, and seasonal densities showed variations in each site. Significant correlations were found between latitude/mean annual temperature of sites and i the first month of sand fly appearance, that ranged from early April to the first half of June; ii the type of density trend, varying from a single peak in July/August to multiple peaks increasing in magnitude from May through September. A 3-modal trend, recorded for P. tobbi in Cyprus, represents a novel finding for a L. infantum vector

Seasonal Dynamics of Phlebotomine Sand Fly Species Proven Vectors of Mediterranean Leishmaniasis Caused by Leishmania infantum.

Science.gov (United States)

Alten, Bulent; Maia, Carla; Afonso, Maria Odete; Campino, Lenea; Jiménez, Maribel; González, Estela; Molina, Ricardo; Bañuls, Anne Laure; Prudhomme, Jorian; Vergnes, Baptiste; Toty, Celine; Cassan, Cécile; Rahola, Nil; Thierry, Magali; Sereno, Denis; Bongiorno, Gioia; Bianchi, Riccardo; Khoury, Cristina; Tsirigotakis, Nikolaos; Dokianakis, Emmanouil; Antoniou, Maria; Christodoulou, Vasiliki; Mazeris, Apostolos; Karakus, Mehmet; Ozbel, Yusuf; Arserim, Suha K; Erisoz Kasap, Ozge; Gunay, Filiz; Oguz, Gizem; Kaynas, Sinan; Tsertsvadze, Nikoloz; Tskhvaradze, Lamzira; Giorgobiani, Ekaterina; Gramiccia, Marina; Volf, Petr; Gradoni, Luigi

2016-02-01

The recent geographical expansion of phlebotomine vectors of Leishmania infantum in the Mediterranean subregion has been attributed to ongoing climate changes. At these latitudes, the activity of sand flies is typically seasonal; because seasonal phenomena are also sensitive to general variations in climate, current phenological data sets can provide a baseline for continuing investigations on sand fly population dynamics that may impact on future scenarios of leishmaniasis transmission. With this aim, in 2011-2013 a consortium of partners from eight Mediterranean countries carried out entomological investigations in sites where L. infantum transmission was recently reported. A common protocol for sand fly collection included monthly captures by CDC light traps, complemented by sticky traps in most of the sites. Collections were replicated for more than one season in order to reduce the effects of local weather events. In each site, the trapping effort was left unchanged throughout the survey to legitimate inter-seasonal comparisons. Data from 99,000 collected specimens were analyzed, resulting in the description of seasonal dynamics of 56,000 sand flies belonging to L. infantum vector species throughout a wide geographical area, namely P. perniciosus (Portugal, Spain and Italy), P. ariasi (France), P. neglectus (Greece), P. tobbi (Cyprus and Turkey), P. balcanicus and P. kandelakii (Georgia). Time of sand fly appearance/disappearance in collections differed between sites, and seasonal densities showed variations in each site. Significant correlations were found between latitude/mean annual temperature of sites and i) the first month of sand fly appearance, that ranged from early April to the first half of June; ii) the type of density trend, varying from a single peak in July/August to multiple peaks increasing in magnitude from May through September. A 3-modal trend, recorded for P. tobbi in Cyprus, represents a novel finding for a L. infantum vector. Adults

Seasonal quantitative dynamics and ecology of pelagic rotifers in an acidified boreal lake

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Svein Birger Wærvågen

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Lake Gjerstadvann is a dimictic, oligotrophic, slightly acidified boreal lake in southern Norway (northwest Europe. The planktonic rotifer community of this lake was studied quantitatively during one year in order to investigate the impacts of the local environment and biotic interactions on seasonal succession and habitat selection. Pure suspension feeders (mainly Keratella spp., Conochilus spp., and Kellicottia longispina together with raptorial graspers or specialised feeders (mainly Polyarthra spp. and Collotheca spp. dominated the rotifer community over prolonged periods, whereas carnivorous/omnivorous species (mainly Asplanchna priodonta were extremely uncommon. Low bicarbonate buffering capacity resulted in a distinctive seasonal oscillating pH between 5.0 and 5.6, defining a special acid-transition lake category. The pH values were highest in the productive period during summer, and lowest during ice break-up coinciding with the peak reactive aluminium concentrations of 250-300 mg L-1. As in typical Norwegian boreal perch lakes, the most abundant cladoceran was Bosmina longispina due to perch predation on the genus Daphnia. Rotifer community structure was significantly related to temperature and oxygen (P=0.001 and P=0.022, illustrating the important effects of the seasonal cycle and vertical density stratification. The most significant competition indicator species were B. longispina and Eudiaptomus gracilis (both with P=0.001. A variance partitioning indicated that 14% of the total community composition variance could only be explained by biotic interactions, while 19% of the variance could be attributed to environmental gradients. Of the variance, 23% could not be resolved between biotic interactions and environmental gradients, while a residual of 44% was not explainable by any of the variables. Acid conditions alone cannot account for all the observed changes in the rotifer community of this lake with low humic content, since

Seasonal varability of the Canary Current

Science.gov (United States)

Vélez-Belchí, P.; Hernandez-Guerra, A.; Pérez-Hernández, M. D.

2016-02-01

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is recognized as an important component of the climate system, contributing to the relatively mild climate of northwest Europe. Due to its importance, the strength of the AMOC is continually monitored along 26ºN with several moorings, east of the Bahamas, in the Middle Atlantic Ridge and south of the Canary islands, known as the RAPID array. The measurements of the RAPID array show a 6 Sv seasonal cycle for the AMOC, and recent studies have pointed out the dynamics of the eastern Atlantic as the main driver for this seasonal cycle, specifically, rossby waves excited south of the Canary Islands.Due to the important role of the eastern Atlantic, in this study we describe the seasonal cycle of the Canary Current (CC) and the Canary Upwelling Current (CUC), using hydrographic data from two cruises carried out in a box around the Canary Islands, the region where the eastern component of the RAPID array is placed. CTD, VMADCP and LADCP data were combined with inverse modeling in order to determine absolute geostrophic transports in the Canary Islands region in fall and spring. During spring, the overall transport of Canary Current and the CUC was southward. In the Lanzarote Passage (LP), between the Canary Islands and Africa, the CUC transported 0.6±0.20 Sv southward, while the Canary Current transported 1.0±0.40 Sv in the oceanic waters of the Canary Islands Archipelago. During fall, the CUC transported 2.8±0.4Sv northward, while the CC transported 2.9±0.60 Sv southward in the oceanic waters of the Canary Islands Archipelago. The seasonal cycle observed has and amplitude of 3.4Sv for the CUC and 1.9Sv for the CC. Data from a mooring in the LP and the hydrographic data was used to calibrate geostrophic transport estimated using altimetry data. The amplitude of the seasonal cycle of the geostrophic transport obtained using the calibrated altimetry data (Figure 1) was quite similar to the seasonal cycle of the

Seasonal cycle of the Canary Current.

Science.gov (United States)

Vélez-Belchí, P.; Hernandez-Guerra, A.; Pérez-Hernández, M. D.

2015-12-01

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is recognized as an important component of the climate system, contributing to the relatively mild climate of northwest Europe. Due to its importance, the strength of the AMOC is continually monitored along 26ºN with several moorings east of the Bahamas, in the Middle Atlantic Ridge and south of the Canary islands, known as the RAPID array. The measurements of the RAPID array show a 6 Sv seasonal cycle for the AMOC, and recent studies have pointed out the dynamics of the eastern Atlantic as the main driver for this seasonal cycle, specifically, rossby waves excited south of the Canary Islands. Due to the important role of the eastern Atlantic, in this study we describe the seasonal cycle of the Canary Current (CC) and the Canary Upwelling Current (CUC) using hydrographic data from two cruises carried out in a box around the Canary Islands, the region where the eastern component of the RAPID array is placed. CTD, VMADCP and LADCP data were combined with inverse modeling in order to determine absolute geostrophic transports in the Canary Islands region in fall and spring. During spring, the overall transport of Canary Current and the CUC was southward. In the Lanzarote Passage (LP), between the Canary Islands and Africa, the CUC transported 0.6±0.20 Sv southward, while the Canary Current transported 1.0±0.40 Sv in the oceanic waters of the Canary Islands Archipelago. During fall, the CUC transported 2.8±0.4Sv northward, while the CC transported 2.9±0.60 Sv southward in the oceanic waters of the Canary Islands Archipelago. The seasonal cycle observed has an amplitude of 3.4Sv for the CUC and 1.9Sv for the CC. Data from a mooring in the LP and the hydrographic data was used to calibrate geostrophic transport estimated using altimetry data. The amplitude of the seasonal cycle of the geostrophic transport obtained using the calibrated altimetry data (Figure 1) was quite similar to the seasonal cycle of the

Seasonal patterns in microbial communities inhabiting the hot springs of Tengchong, Yunnan Province, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Briggs, Brandon R; Brodie, Eoin L; Tom, Lauren M; Dong, Hailiang; Jiang, Hongchen; Huang, Qiuyuan; Wang, Shang; Hou, Weiguo; Wu, Geng; Huang, Liuquin; Hedlund, Brian P; Zhang, Chuanlun; Dijkstra, Paul; Hungate, Bruce A

2014-06-01

Studies focusing on seasonal dynamics of microbial communities in terrestrial and marine environments are common; however, little is known about seasonal dynamics in high-temperature environments. Thus, our objective was to document the seasonal dynamics of both the physicochemical conditions and the microbial communities inhabiting hot springs in Tengchong County, Yunnan Province, China. The PhyloChip microarray detected 4882 operational taxonomic units (OTUs) within 79 bacterial phylum-level groups and 113 OTUs within 20 archaeal phylum-level groups, which are additional 54 bacterial phyla and 11 archaeal phyla to those that were previously described using pyrosequencing. Monsoon samples (June 2011) showed increased concentrations of potassium, total organic carbon, ammonium, calcium, sodium and total nitrogen, and decreased ferrous iron relative to the dry season (January 2011). At the same time, the highly ordered microbial communities present in January gave way to poorly ordered communities in June, characterized by higher richness of Bacteria, including microbes related to mesophiles. These seasonal changes in geochemistry and community structure are likely due to high rainfall influx during the monsoon season and indicate that seasonal dynamics occurs in high-temperature environments experiencing significant changes in seasonal recharge. Thus, geothermal environments are not isolated from the surrounding environment and seasonality affects microbial ecology. © 2013 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Timing and severity of immunizing diseases in rabbits is controlled by seasonal matching of host and pathogen dynamics

OpenAIRE

Wells, Konstans; Brook, Barry W.; Lacy, Robert C.; Mutze, Greg J.; Peacock, David E.; Sinclair, Ron G.; Schwensow, Nina; Cassey, Phillip; O'Hara, Robert B.; Fordham, Damien A.

2015-01-01

Infectious diseases can exert a strong influence on the dynamics of host populations, but it remains unclear why such disease-mediated control only occurs under particular environmental conditions. We used 16 years of detailed field data on invasive European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) in Australia, linked to individual-based stochastic models and Bayesian approximations, to test whether (i) mortality associated with rabbit haemorrhagic disease (RHD) is driven primarily by seasonal matche...

Integrating the social sciences to understand human-water dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Carr, G.; Kuil, L., Jr.

2017-12-01

Many interesting and exciting socio-hydrological models have been developed in recent years. Such models often aim to capture the dynamic interplay between people and water for a variety of hydrological settings. As such, peoples' behaviours and decisions are brought into the models as drivers of and/or respondents to the hydrological system. To develop and run such models over a sufficiently long time duration to observe how the water-human system evolves the human component is often simplified according to one or two key behaviours, characteristics or decisions (e.g. a decision to move away from a drought or flood area; a decision to pump groundwater, or a decision to plant a less water demanding crop). To simplify the social component, socio-hydrological modellers often pull knowledge and understanding from existing social science theories. This requires them to negotiate complex territory, where social theories may be underdeveloped, contested, dynamically evolving, or case specific and difficult to generalise or upscale. A key question is therefore, how can this process be supported so that the resulting socio-hydrological models adequately describe the system and lead to meaningful understanding of how and why it behaves as it does? Collaborative interdisciplinary research teams that bring together social and natural scientists are likely to be critical. Joint development of the model framework requires specific attention to clarification to expose all underlying assumptions, constructive discussion and negotiation to reach agreement on the modelled system and its boundaries. Mutual benefits to social scientists can be highlighted, i.e. socio-hydrological work can provide insights for further exploring and testing social theories. Collaborative work will also help ensure underlying social theory is made explicit, and may identify ways to include and compare multiple theories. As socio-hydrology progresses towards supporting policy development, approaches that

Learning and Understanding System Stability Using Illustrative Dynamic Texture Examples

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Huaping; Xiao, Wei; Zhao, Hongyan; Sun, Fuchun

2014-01-01

System stability is a basic concept in courses on dynamic system analysis and control for undergraduate students with computer science backgrounds. Typically, this was taught using a simple simulation example of an inverted pendulum. Unfortunately, many difficult issues arise in the learning and understanding of the concepts of stability,…

Dynamic use of geoscience information to develop scientific understanding for a nuclear waste repository

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cook, N.G.W.; Tsang, C.F.

1990-01-01

This paper discusses the development and safety evaluation of a nuclear waste geologic repository. Scientific understanding dependent upon information from a number of geoscience disciplines is described. A discussion is given on the dynamic use of the information through the different stages. The authors point out the need for abstracting, deriving and updating a quantitative spatial and process model (QSPM) to develop a scientific understanding of site responses as a crucial element in the dynamic procedure

Changes in body composition and bone of female collegiate soccer players through the competitive season and off-season

Science.gov (United States)

Minett, M.M.; Binkley, T.B.; Weidauer, L.A.; Specker, B.L.

2017-01-01

Objectives: To assess body composition and bone changes pre- to post-season (pre-post) and post- to off-season (post-off) in female soccer athletes (SC). Methods: Outcomes were assessed using DXA and pQCT in 23 SC and 17 controls at three times throughout season. Results: SC, non-starters in particular, lost lean mass pre-post (-0.9±0.2 kg, pSoccer players lost lean mass over the competitive season that was not recovered during off-season. Bone size increased pre- to post-season. Female soccer athletes experience body composition and bone geometry changes that differ depending on the time of season and on athlete’s playing status. Evaluations of athletes at key times across the training season are necessary to understand changes that occur. PMID:28250243

Seasonal and episodic moisture controls on plant and microbial contributions to soil respiration.

Science.gov (United States)

Carbone, Mariah S; Still, Christopher J; Ambrose, Anthony R; Dawson, Todd E; Williams, A Park; Boot, Claudia M; Schaeffer, Sean M; Schimel, Joshua P

2011-09-01

Moisture inputs drive soil respiration (SR) dynamics in semi-arid and arid ecosystems. However, determining the contributions of root and microbial respiration to SR, and their separate temporal responses to periodic drought and water pulses, remains poorly understood. This study was conducted in a pine forest ecosystem with a Mediterranean-type climate that receives seasonally varying precipitation inputs from both rainfall (in the winter) and fog-drip (primarily in the summer). We used automated SR measurements, radiocarbon SR source partitioning, and a water addition experiment to understand how SR, and its separate root and microbial sources, respond to seasonal and episodic changes in moisture. Seasonal changes in SR were driven by surface soil water content and large changes in root respiration contributions. Superimposed on these seasonal patterns were episodic pulses of precipitation that determined the short-term SR patterns. Warm season precipitation pulses derived from fog-drip, and rainfall following extended dry periods, stimulated the largest SR responses. Microbial respiration dominated these SR responses, increasing within hours, whereas root respiration responded more slowly over days. We conclude that root and microbial respiration sources respond differently in timing and magnitude to both seasonal and episodic moisture inputs. These findings have important implications for the mechanistic representation of SR in models and the response of dry ecosystems to changes in precipitation patterns.

A Principal Component Analysis (PCA Approach to Seasonal and Zooplankton Diversity Relationships in Fishing Grounds of Mannar Gulf, India

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Selvin J. PITCHAIKANI

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Principal component analysis (PCA is a technique used to emphasize variation and bring out strong patterns in a dataset. It is often used to make data easy to explore and visualize. The primary objective of the present study was to record information of zooplankton diversity in a systematic way and to study the variability and relationships among seasons prevailed in Gulf of Mannar. The PCA for the zooplankton seasonal diversity was investigated using the four seasonal datasets to understand the statistical significance among the four seasons. Two different principal components (PC were segregated in all the seasons homogeneously. PCA analyses revealed that Temora turbinata is an opportunistic species and zooplankton diversity was significantly different from season to season and principally, the zooplankton abundance and its dynamics in Gulf of Mannar is structured by seasonal current patterns. The factor loadings of zooplankton for different seasons in Tiruchendur coastal water (GOM is different compared with the Southwest coast of India; particularly, routine and opportunistic species were found within the positive and negative factors. The copepods Acrocalanus gracilis and Acartia erythrea were dominant in summer and Southwest monsoon due to the rainfall and freshwater discharge during the summer season; however, these species were replaced by Temora turbinata during Northeast monsoon season.

Mnemiopsis leidyi Gut Harbors Seasonally Variant and Commensal Microbial Assemblages

Science.gov (United States)

Mariita, R. M.; Hossain, M. J.; Liles, M. R.; Moss, A.

2016-02-01

Studies have shown that with widespread use of antibiotics in human and domestic animal populations, antibiotic resistance becomes increasingly common in the environment. Estuaries provide ideal conditions for acquisition and dissemination of drug resistance genes because they serve as sinks for pollution. This study aimed to identify M. leidyi microbial diversity and richness and their potential to act as vectors for antibiotic resistance determinants (ARDs). M. leidyi, although native to study area are highly invasive. Metagenomic analyses indicate that there are temporal variations of bacterioplankton assemblages in M. leidyi gut. Overall, Proteobacteria and Actinobacteria are the most abundant phyla. Despite the temporal dynamics in the microbial assemblages in M. leidyi gut, they seem to retain Propionibacterium acnes (gut microbiota in some insects) and select proteobacteria across all seasons. The results contradict previous studies that suggest that M. leidyi does not have constant a microbiota, but only seasonally variant microbial assemblages. Here we reveal the presence of M. leidyi gut ARDs in winter and summer, probably because of the ctenophores' positive geotaxis during rough surface conditions. Genes responsible for resistance to fluoroquinolones, multidrug resistance efflux pumps, mercuric reductase, copper homeostasis and blaR1 genes were observed. This is the first study to demonstrate that M. leidyi harbors constant microbiota and provides a baseline for understanding M. leidyi gut microbial and ARDs ecology. It also suggests that M. leidyi bacterial taxonomic and functional dynamics is influenced by season. Funding: Alabama EPSCoR GRSP fellowship, AU-CMB fellowship, NSF EPS-1158862, USDA-Hatch 370225-310100 (AGM, ML).

Using social network analysis tools in ecology : Markov process transition models applied to the seasonal trophic network dynamics of the Chesapeake Bay

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Johnson, Jeffrey C.; Luczkovich, Joseph J.; Borgatti, Stephen P.; Snijders, Tom A. B.; Luczkovich, S.P.

2009-01-01

Ecosystem components interact in complex ways and change over time due to a variety of both internal and external influences (climate change, season cycles, human impacts). Such processes need to be modeled dynamically using appropriate statistical methods for assessing change in network structure.

Effects of Altered Seasonality of Precipitation on Grass Production and Grasshopper Performance in a Northern Mixed Prairie.

Science.gov (United States)

Branson, David H

2017-06-01

Climatic changes are leading to differing patterns and timing of precipitation in grassland ecosystems, with the seasonal timing of precipitation affecting plant biomass and plant composition. No previous studies have examined how drought seasonality affects grasshopper performance and the impact of herbivory on vegetation. We modified seasonal patterns of precipitation and grasshopper density in a manipulative experiment to examine if seasonality of drought combined with herbivory affected plant biomass, nitrogen content, and grasshopper performance. Grass biomass was affected by both precipitation and grasshopper density treatments, while nitrogen content of grass was higher with early-season drought. Proportional survival was negatively affected by initial density, while survival was higher with early drought than with full-season drought. Drought timing affected the outcome, with early summer drought increasing grass nitrogen content and grasshopper survival, while season-long and late-season drought did not. The results support arguments that our knowledge of plant responses to seasonal short-term variation in climate is limited and illustrate the importance of experiments manipulating precipitation phenology. The results confirm that understanding the season of drought is critical for predicting grasshopper population dynamics, as extreme early summer drought may be required to strongly affect Melanoplus sanguinipes (F.) performance. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America 2017. This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the US.

Seasonal survival rates and causes of mortality of Little Owls in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thorup, Kasper; Pedersen, Dorthe; Sunde, Peter

2013-01-01

Survival rate is an essential component of population dynamics; therefore, identification of variation in mortality rates and the factors that influence them might be of key importance in understanding why populations increase or decrease. In Denmark, the Little Owl Athene noctua, a species...... the causes of current survival rates, we estimated age- and season-specific survival rates and causes of mortality in Danish Little Owls on the basis of ringed birds 1920–2002, radio tagged adult and juveniles 2005–2008 and nest surveys 2006–2008. We estimate that 32 % of all eggs fledge and survive to 2...... the breeding season. In radio-tagged adults and fledged juveniles, accidents in buildings and other human infrastructures were responsible for two-thirds of all fatalities. Anthropogenic habitats currently comprise the nesting and roosting habitats for the last Danish Little Owls. The accidental deaths...

Deriving seasonal dynamics in ecosystem properties of semi-arid savanna grasslands from in situ-based hyperspectral reflectance

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tagesson, Håkan Torbern; Fensholt, Rasmus; Huber, S.

2015-01-01

strongly affected by solar zenith angles and sensor viewing geometry, as were many combinations of visible wavelengths. This study provides analyses based upon novel multi-angular hyperspectral data for validation of Earth-observation-based properties of semi-arid ecosystems, as well as insights...... between normalised difference spectral indices (NDSIs) and the measured ecosystem properties. Finally, the effects of variable sun sensor viewing geometry on different NDSI wavelength combinations were analysed. The wavelengths with the strongest correlation to seasonal dynamics in ecosystem properties...

Using chemistry and microfluidics to understand the spatial dynamics of complex biological networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Kastrup, Christian J; Runyon, Matthew K; Lucchetta, Elena M; Price, Jessica M; Ismagilov, Rustem F

2008-04-01

Understanding the spatial dynamics of biochemical networks is both fundamentally important for understanding life at the systems level and also has practical implications for medicine, engineering, biology, and chemistry. Studies at the level of individual reactions provide essential information about the function, interactions, and localization of individual molecular species and reactions in a network. However, analyzing the spatial dynamics of complex biochemical networks at this level is difficult. Biochemical networks are nonequilibrium systems containing dozens to hundreds of reactions with nonlinear and time-dependent interactions, and these interactions are influenced by diffusion, flow, and the relative values of state-dependent kinetic parameters. To achieve an overall understanding of the spatial dynamics of a network and the global mechanisms that drive its function, networks must be analyzed as a whole, where all of the components and influential parameters of a network are simultaneously considered. Here, we describe chemical concepts and microfluidic tools developed for network-level investigations of the spatial dynamics of these networks. Modular approaches can be used to simplify these networks by separating them into modules, and simple experimental or computational models can be created by replacing each module with a single reaction. Microfluidics can be used to implement these models as well as to analyze and perturb the complex network itself with spatial control on the micrometer scale. We also describe the application of these network-level approaches to elucidate the mechanisms governing the spatial dynamics of two networkshemostasis (blood clotting) and early patterning of the Drosophila embryo. To investigate the dynamics of the complex network of hemostasis, we simplified the network by using a modular mechanism and created a chemical model based on this mechanism by using microfluidics. Then, we used the mechanism and the model to

Understanding long-term fruit fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) population dynamics: implications for areawide management.

Science.gov (United States)

Aluja, Martín; Ordano, Mariano; Guillén, Larissa; Rull, Juan

2012-06-01

Fruit flies (Diptera: Tephritidae) are devastating agricultural pests worldwide but studies on their long-term population dynamics are sparse. Our aim was to determine the mechanisms driving long-term population dynamics as a prerequisite for ecologically based areawide pest management. The population density of three pestiferous Anastrepha species [Anastrepha ludens (Loew), Anastrepha obliqua (Macquart), and Anastrepha serpentina (Wiedemann)] was determined in grapefruit (Citrus x paradisi Macfad.), mango (Mangifera indica L.), and sapodilla [Manilkara zapota (L.) P. Royen] orchards in central Veracruz, México, on a weekly basis over an 11-yr period. Fly populations exhibited relatively stable dynamics over time. Population dynamics were mainly driven by a direct density-dependent effect and a seasonal feedback process. We discovered direct and delayed influences that were correlated with both local (rainfall and air temperature) and global climatic variation (El Niño Southern Oscillation [ENSO] and North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO]), and detected differences among species and location of orchards with respect to the magnitude and nature (linear or nonlinear) of the observed effects, suggesting that highly mobile pest outbreaks become uncertain in response to significant climatic events at both global and local levels. That both NAO and ENSO affected Anastrepha population dynamics, coupled with the high mobility of Anastrepha adults and the discovery that when measured as rate of population change, local population fluctuations exhibited stable dynamics over time, suggests potential management scenarios for the species studied lie beyond the local scale and should be approached from an areawide perspective. Localized efforts, from individual growers will probably prove ineffective, and nonsustainable.

The impact of seasonal changes in stratification on the dynamics of internal waves in the Sea of Okhotsk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oxana E. Kurkina

2017-11-01

Full Text Available The properties and dynamics of internal waves in the ocean crucially depend on the vertical structure of water masses. We present detailed analysis of the impact of spatial and seasonal variations in the density-driven stratification in the Sea of Okhotsk on the properties of the classic kinematic and nonlinear parameters of internal waves in this water body. The resulting maps of the phase speed of long internal waves and coefficients at various terms of the underlying Gardner’s equation make it possible to rapidly determine the main properties of internal solitary waves in the region and to choose an adequate set of parameters of the relevant numerical models. It is shown that the phase speed of long internal waves almost does not depend on the particular season. The coefficient at the quadratic term of the underlying evolution equation is predominantly negative in summer and winter and therefore internal solitons usually have negative polarity. Numerical simulations of the formation of internal solitons and solibores indicate that seasonal variations in the coefficient at the cubic term of Gardner’s equation lead to substantial variations in the shape of solibores.

Computer Assisted Comprehension of Distant Worlds: Understanding Hunger Dynamics in Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Moseley, William G.

2001-01-01

Describes a computer program called RiskMap. Explains that after completing an assignment on rural economics and hunger dynamics in Africa, students showed an increased level of understanding and felt that using RiskMap was helpful in learning the material. Includes references. (DAJ)

Dynamic use of geoscience information to develop scientific understanding for a nuclear waste repository

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cook, N.G.W.; Tsang, C.F.

1990-01-01

The development and safety evaluation of a nuclear waste geologic repository require a proper scientific understanding of the site response. Such scientific understanding depends on information from a number of geoscience disciplines, including geology, geophysics, geochemistry, geomechanics and hydrogeology. The information comes in four stages: (1) general regional survey data base, (2) surface-based testing, (3) exploratory shaft testing, and (4) repository construction and evaluation. A discussion is given on the dynamic use of the information through the different stages. We point out the need for abstracting, deriving and updating a quantitative spatial and process model (QSPM) to develop a scientific understanding of site responses as a crucial element in the dynamic procedure. 2 figs

Seasonal dynamics of ichthyodiversity in a hill stream of the Darjeeling Himalaya, West Bengal, india

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M.L. Acharjee

2014-12-01

Full Text Available The small torrential spring-fed hill-stream Relli in the Darjeeling Himalaya of West Bengal was studied from March 2007 to February 2009 to assess seasonal dynamics and diversity of fish populations.  The study revealed that the stream sustained 25 rheophilic cold water fish species from 15 genera and five families having ornamental, food and sport value.  Seven omnivorous species were abundantly found, and the array of juveniles and sub adults suggests this stream is used as a breeding and nursery ground for some species.  The stream harboured fish with unique modifications such as adhesive structures.  Analysis of monthly data indicate that abundance and diversity indices increased slightly during April–May and sharply during October–November, indicating significant seasonal variations with the low diversity observed during monsoon months reflecting environmental stresses.  Evenness was high in all sampling sites, and inversely related to the dominance index of ichthyofauna.  The density and diversity of fish assemblages along the gradient of the stream may be interrupted due to anthropogenic disturbances.  Our study provides baseline data which may be helpful for conservation and management of fish species, and in formulating fishery policy. 

Strong seasonality and interannual recurrence in marine myovirus communities.

Science.gov (United States)

Pagarete, A; Chow, C-E T; Johannessen, T; Fuhrman, J A; Thingstad, T F; Sandaa, R A

2013-10-01

The temporal community dynamics and persistence of different viral types in the marine environment are still mostly obscure. Polymorphism of the major capsid protein gene, g23, was used to investigate the community composition dynamics of T4-like myoviruses in a North Atlantic fjord for a period of 2 years. A total of 160 unique operational taxonomic units (OTUs) were identified by terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism (TRFLP) of the gene g23. Three major community profiles were identified (winter-spring, summer, and autumn), which resulted in a clear seasonal succession pattern. These seasonal transitions were recurrent over the 2 years and significantly correlated with progression of seawater temperature, Synechococcus abundance, and turbidity. The appearance of the autumn viral communities was concomitant with the occurrence of prominent Synechococcus blooms. As a whole, we found a highly dynamic T4-like viral community with strong seasonality and recurrence patterns. These communities were unexpectedly dominated by a group of persistently abundant viruses.

Understanding bicycling in cities using system dynamics modelling.

Science.gov (United States)

Macmillan, Alexandra; Woodcock, James

2017-12-01

Increasing urban bicycling has established net benefits for human and environmental health. Questions remain about which policies are needed and in what order, to achieve an increase in cycling while avoiding negative consequences. Novel ways of considering cycling policy are needed, bringing together expertise across policy, community and research to develop a shared understanding of the dynamically complex cycling system. In this paper we use a collaborative learning process to develop a dynamic causal model of urban cycling to develop consensus about the nature and order of policies needed in different cycling contexts to optimise outcomes. We used participatory system dynamics modelling to develop causal loop diagrams (CLDs) of cycling in three contrasting contexts: Auckland, London and Nijmegen. We combined qualitative interviews and workshops to develop the CLDs. We used the three CLDs to compare and contrast influences on cycling at different points on a "cycling trajectory" and drew out policy insights. The three CLDs consisted of feedback loops dynamically influencing cycling, with significant overlap between the three diagrams. Common reinforcing patterns emerged: growing numbers of people cycling lifts political will to improve the environment; cycling safety in numbers drives further growth; and more cycling can lead to normalisation across the population. By contrast, limits to growth varied as cycling increases. In Auckland and London, real and perceived danger was considered the main limit, with added barriers to normalisation in London. Cycling congestion and "market saturation" were important in the Netherlands. A generalisable, dynamic causal theory for urban cycling enables a more ordered set of policy recommendations for different cities on a cycling trajectory. Participation meant the collective knowledge of cycling stakeholders was represented and triangulated with research evidence. Extending this research to further cities, especially in low

Investigation of Seasonal and Latitudinal Effects on the Expression of Clock Genes in Drosophila

Science.gov (United States)

Hosseini, Seyede Sanaz; Nazarimehr, Fahimeh; Jafari, Sajad

The primary goal in this work is to develop a dynamical model capturing the influence of seasonal and latitudinal variations on the expression of Drosophila clock genes. To this end, we study a specific dynamical system with strange attractors that exhibit changes of Drosophila activity in a range of latitudes and across different seasons. Bifurcations of this system are analyzed to peruse the effect of season and latitude on the behavior of clock genes. Existing experimental data collected from the activity of Drosophila melanogaster corroborate the dynamical model.

A framework for improving a seasonal hydrological forecasting system using sensitivity analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Arnal, Louise; Pappenberger, Florian; Smith, Paul; Cloke, Hannah

2017-04-01

Seasonal streamflow forecasts are of great value for the socio-economic sector, for applications such as navigation, flood and drought mitigation and reservoir management for hydropower generation and water allocation to agriculture and drinking water. However, as we speak, the performance of dynamical seasonal hydrological forecasting systems (systems based on running seasonal meteorological forecasts through a hydrological model to produce seasonal hydrological forecasts) is still limited in space and time. In this context, the ESP (Ensemble Streamflow Prediction) remains an attractive forecasting method for seasonal streamflow forecasting as it relies on forcing a hydrological model (starting from the latest observed or simulated initial hydrological conditions) with historical meteorological observations. This makes it cheaper to run than a standard dynamical seasonal hydrological forecasting system, for which the seasonal meteorological forecasts will first have to be produced, while still producing skilful forecasts. There is thus the need to focus resources and time towards improvements in dynamical seasonal hydrological forecasting systems which will eventually lead to significant improvements in the skill of the streamflow forecasts generated. Sensitivity analyses are a powerful tool that can be used to disentangle the relative contributions of the two main sources of errors in seasonal streamflow forecasts, namely the initial hydrological conditions (IHC; e.g., soil moisture, snow cover, initial streamflow, among others) and the meteorological forcing (MF; i.e., seasonal meteorological forecasts of precipitation and temperature, input to the hydrological model). Sensitivity analyses are however most useful if they inform and change current operational practices. To this end, we propose a method to improve the design of a seasonal hydrological forecasting system. This method is based on sensitivity analyses, informing the forecasters as to which element of

Growing up with stress - carbon sequestration and allocation dynamics of a broadleaf evergreen forest

Science.gov (United States)

Griebel, Anne; Bennett, Lauren T.; Arndt, Stefan K.

2016-04-01

Evergreen forests have the potential to sequester carbon year-round due to the presence of leaves with a multi-year lifespan. Eucalypt forests occur in warmer climates where temperature and radiation are not imposing a strong seasonality. Thus, unlike deciduous or many coniferous trees, many eucalypts grow opportunistically as conditions allow. As such, many eucalypts do not produce distinct growth rings, which present challenges to the implementation of standard methods and data interpretation approaches for monitoring and explaining carbon allocation dynamics in response to climatic stress. As a consequence, there is a lack of detailed understanding of seasonal growth dynamics of evergreen forests as a whole, and, in particular, of the influence of climatic drivers on carbon allocation to the various biomass pools. We used a multi-instrument approach in a mixed species eucalypt forest to investigate the influence of climatic drivers on the seasonal growth dynamics of a predominantly temperate and moisture-regulated environment in south-eastern Australia. Ecosystem scale observations of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) from a flux tower in the Wombat forest near Melbourne indicated that the ecosystem is a year-round carbon sink, but that intra-annual variations in temperature and moisture along with prolonged heat waves and dry spells resulted in a wide range of annual sums over the past three years (NEE ranging from ~4 to 12 t C ha-1 yr-1). Dendrometers were used to monitor stem increments of the three dominant eucalypt species. Stem expansion was generally opportunistic with the greatest increments under warm but moist conditions (often in spring and autumn), and the strongest indicators of stem growth dynamics being radiation, vapour pressure deficit and a combined heat-moisture index. Differences in the seasonality of stem increments between species were largely due to differences in the canopy position of sampled individuals. The greatest stem increments were

Seasonal blood shortages can be eliminated.

Science.gov (United States)

Gilcher, Ronald O; McCombs, Suzanne

2005-11-01

This review is designed to help readers understand seasonal blood shortages and provide solutions through the use of technology that can increase the number of red blood cell units collected and the use of recruitment and marketing initiatives that appeal to the increasingly diverse donor base. Seasonal shortages are, in reality, mostly shortages of group O red blood cells and occur most commonly during midsummer and early winter. The shortages occur primarily from increased use of group O red blood cells at times of decreased donor availability. While reducing the disproportionate use of red cells will help, blood centers can more quickly reduce the seasonal deficits by using automated red cell technology to collect double red blood cell units; targeted marketing programs to provide effective messages; seasonal advertising campaigns; and recognition, benefits, and incentives to enhance the donor motivation donation threshold. A multi-level approach to increasing blood donations at difficult times of the year can ensure that donations are increased at a time when regular donor availability is decreased. Seasonal blood shortages can be eliminated by understanding the nature of the shortages, why and when they occur, and using more sophisticated recruitment and marketing strategies as well as automated collection technologies to enhance the blood supply.

Characterization and risk assessment of seasonal and weather dynamics in organic pollutant mixtures from discharge of a separate sewer system.

Science.gov (United States)

Beckers, Liza-Marie; Busch, Wibke; Krauss, Martin; Schulze, Tobias; Brack, Werner

2018-05-15

Sites of wastewater discharge are hotspots for pollution of freshwaters with organic micropollutants and are often associated with adverse effects to aquatic organisms. The assessment, monitoring and managment of these hotspots is challenged by variations in the pollutant mixture composition due to season, weather conditions and random spills. In this study, we unraveled temporal exposure patterns in organic micropollutant mixtures from wastewater discharge and analyzed respective acute and sublethal risks for aquatic organisms. Samples were taken from two components of a separate sewer system i) a wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) and ii) a rain sewer of a medium size town as well as from the receiving river in different seasons. Rain sewer samples were separately collected for rain and dry - weather conditions. We analyzed 149 compounds by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). By considering the pollution dynamics in the point sources, we reduced the complexity of pollutant mixtures by k-means clustering to a few emission groups representing temporal and weather-related pollution patterns. From these groups, we derived biological quality element (BQE) - specific risk patterns. In most cases, one main risk driving emission group and a few individual risk driving compounds were identified for each BQE. While acute risk for fish was quite low, algae were exposed to seasonally emitted herbicides (terbuthylazine, spiroxamine) and crustaceans to randomly spilled insecticides (diazinon, dimethoate). Sublethal risks for all BQE were strongly influenced by constantly emitted pollutants, above all, pharmaceuticals. Variability of risks in the river was mainly driven by water discharge of the river rather than by season or peak events. Overall, the studied WWTP represented the major pollution source with a specific emission of agricultural compounds. However, the investigated rain sewer showed to be a constant pollution source due to illicit connections

Seasonal Variation of Eutrophication in Some Lakes of Danube Delta Biosphere Reserve.

Science.gov (United States)

Török, Liliana; Török, Zsolt; Carstea, Elfrida M; Savastru, Dan

2017-01-01

  To understand the trophic state of lakes, this study aims to determine the dynamics of phytoplankton assemblages and the main factors that influence their seasonal variation. Sampling campaigns were carried out in three lakes from the Danube Delta Biosphere Reserve. Spectral analysis of specific phytoplankton pigments was applied as a diagnostic marker to establish the distribution and composition of phytoplankton taxonomic groups. Fluorescence spectroscopy was used to quantify changes in dissolved organic matter (DOM). The relative contribution of the main phytoplankton groups to the total phytoplankton biomass and the trend of development during succession of the seasons showed that cyanobacteria could raise potential ecological or human health problems. Moreover, fluorescence spectroscopy revealed that Cryptophyta and cyanobacteria were the main contributors to the protein-like components of DOM. It was concluded that fluorescence could be used to provide a qualitative evaluation of the eutrophication degree in Danube Delta lakes.

Dynamic and Regression Modeling of Ocean Variability in the Tide-Gauge Record at Seasonal and Longer Periods

Science.gov (United States)

Hill, Emma M.; Ponte, Rui M.; Davis, James L.

2007-01-01

Comparison of monthly mean tide-gauge time series to corresponding model time series based on a static inverted barometer (IB) for pressure-driven fluctuations and a ocean general circulation model (OM) reveals that the combined model successfully reproduces seasonal and interannual changes in relative sea level at many stations. Removal of the OM and IB from the tide-gauge record produces residual time series with a mean global variance reduction of 53%. The OM is mis-scaled for certain regions, and 68% of the residual time series contain a significant seasonal variability after removal of the OM and IB from the tide-gauge data. Including OM admittance parameters and seasonal coefficients in a regression model for each station, with IB also removed, produces residual time series with mean global variance reduction of 71%. Examination of the regional improvement in variance caused by scaling the OM, including seasonal terms, or both, indicates weakness in the model at predicting sea-level variation for constricted ocean regions. The model is particularly effective at reproducing sea-level variation for stations in North America, Europe, and Japan. The RMS residual for many stations in these areas is 25-35 mm. The production of "cleaner" tide-gauge time series, with oceanographic variability removed, is important for future analysis of nonsecular and regionally differing sea-level variations. Understanding the ocean model's strengths and weaknesses will allow for future improvements of the model.

Improving dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) simulation of western U.S. rangelands vegetation seasonal phenology and productivity

Science.gov (United States)

Kerns, B. K.; Kim, J. B.; Day, M. A.; Pitts, B.; Drapek, R. J.

2017-12-01

Ecosystem process models are increasingly being used in regional assessments to explore potential changes in future vegetation and NPP due to climate change. We use the dynamic global vegetation model MAPSS-Century 2 (MC2) as one line of evidence for regional climate change vulnerability assessments for the US Forest Service, focusing our fine tuning model calibration from observational sources related to forest vegetation. However, there is much interest in understanding projected changes for arid rangelands in the western US such as grasslands, shrublands, and woodlands. Rangelands provide many ecosystem service benefits and local rural human community sustainability, habitat for threatened and endangered species, and are threatened by annual grass invasion. Past work suggested MC2 performance related to arid rangeland plant functional types (PFT's) was poor, and the model has difficulty distinguishing annual versus perennial grasslands. Our objectives are to increase the model performance for rangeland simulations and explore the potential for splitting the grass plant functional type into annual and perennial. We used the tri-state Blue Mountain Ecoregion as our study area and maps of potential vegetation from interpolated ground data, the National Land Cover Data Database, and ancillary NPP data derived from the MODIS satellite. MC2 historical simulations for the area overestimated woodland occurrence and underestimated shrubland and grassland PFT's. The spatial location of the rangeland PFT's also often did not align well with observational data. While some disagreement may be due to differences in the respective classification rules, the errors are largely linked to MC2's tree and grass biogeography and physiology algorithms. Presently, only grass and forest productivity measures and carbon stocks are used to distinguish PFT's. MC2 grass and tree productivity simulation is problematic, in particular grass seasonal phenology in relation to seasonal patterns

Global Analysis of Empirical Relationships Between Annual Climate and Seasonality of NDVI

Science.gov (United States)

Potter, C. S.

1997-01-01

This study describes the use of satellite data to calibrate a new climate-vegetation greenness function for global change studies. We examined statistical relationships between annual climate indexes (temperature, precipitation, and surface radiation) and seasonal attributes of the AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series for the mid-1980s in order to refine our empirical understanding of intraannual patterns and global abiotic controls on natural vegetation dynamics. Multiple linear regression results using global l(sup o) gridded data sets suggest that three climate indexes: growing degree days, annual precipitation total, and an annual moisture index together can account to 70-80 percent of the variation in the NDVI seasonal extremes (maximum and minimum values) for the calibration year 1984. Inclusion of the same climate index values from the previous year explained no significant additional portion of the global scale variation in NDVI seasonal extremes. The monthly timing of NDVI extremes was closely associated with seasonal patterns in maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall, with lag times of 1 to 2 months. We separated well-drained areas from l(sup o) grid cells mapped as greater than 25 percent inundated coverage for estimation of both the magnitude and timing of seasonal NDVI maximum values. Predicted monthly NDVI, derived from our climate-based regression equations and Fourier smoothing algorithms, shows good agreement with observed NDVI at a series of ecosystem test locations from around the globe. Regions in which NDVI seasonal extremes were not accurately predicted are mainly high latitude ecosystems and other remote locations where climate station data are sparse.

Co-existence of Anaerobic Ammonium Oxidation Bacteria and Denitrifying Anaerobic Methane Oxidation Bacteria in Sewage Sludge: Community Diversity and Seasonal Dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Sai; Lu, Wenjing; Mustafa, Muhammad Farooq; Caicedo, Luis Miguel; Guo, Hanwen; Fu, Xindi; Wang, Hongtao

2017-11-01

Anaerobic ammonium oxidation (ANAMMOX) and denitrifying anaerobic methane oxidation (DAMO) have been recently discovered as relevant processes in the carbon and nitrogen cycles of wastewater treatment plants. In this study, the seasonal dynamics of ANAMMOX and DAMO bacterial community structures and their abundance in sewage sludge collected from wastewater treatment plants were analysed. Results indicated that ANAMMOX and DAMO bacteria co-existed in sewage sludge in different seasons and their abundance was positively correlated (P bacteria in autumn and winter indicated that these seasons were the preferred time to favour the growth of ANAMMOX and DAMO bacteria. The community structure of ANNAMOX and DAMO bacteria could also shift with seasonal changes. The "Candidatus Brocadia" genus of ANAMMOX bacteria was mainly recovered in spring and summer, and an unknown cluster was primarily detected in autumn and winter. Similar patterns of seasonal variation in the community structure of DAMO bacteria were also observed. Group B was the dominant in spring and summer, whereas in autumn and winter, group A and group B presented almost the same proportion. The redundancy analysis revealed that pH and nitrate were the most significant factors affecting community structures of these two groups (P < 0.01). This study reported the diversity of ANAMMOX and DAMO in wastewater treatment plants that may be the basis for new nitrogen removal technologies.

Genetic and environmental control of seasonal carbohydrate dynamics in trees of diverse Pinus sylvestris populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Oleksyn, J.; Zytkowiak, R.; Karolewski, P.; Reich, P. B.; Tjoelker, M. G.

2000-06-01

We explored environmental and genetic factors affecting seasonal dynamics of starch and soluble nonstructural carbohydrates in needle and twig cohorts and roots of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) trees of six populations originating between 49 degrees and 60 degrees N, and grown under common garden conditions in western Poland. Trees of each population were sampled once or twice per month over a 3-year period from age 15 to 17 years. Based on similarity in starch concentration patterns in needles, two distinct groups of populations were identified; one comprised northern populations from Sweden and Russia (59-60 degrees N), and another comprised central European populations from Latvia, Poland, Germany and France (49-56 degrees N). Needle starch concentrations of northern populations started to decline in late spring and reached minimum values earlier than those of central populations. For all populations, starch accumulation in spring started when minimum air temperature permanently exceeded 0 degrees C. Starch accumulation peaked before bud break and was highest in 1-year-old needles, averaging 9-13% of dry mass. Soluble carbohydrate concentrations were lowest in spring and summer and highest in autumn and winter. There were no differences among populations in seasonal pattern of soluble carbohydrate concentrations. Averaged across all populations, needle soluble carbohydrate concentrations increased from about 4% of needle dry mass in developing current-year needles, to about 9% in 1- and 2-year-old needles. Root carbohydrate concentration exhibited a bimodal pattern with peaks in spring and autumn. Northern populations had higher concentrations of fine-root starch in spring and autumn than central populations. Late-summer carbohydrate accumulation in roots started only after depletion of starch in needles and woody shoots. We conclude that Scots pine carbohydrate dynamics depend partially on inherited properties that are probably related to phenology of root

Seasonal dynamics of the inorganic pollution in a Niger Delta River ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The level of inorganic anions of the Eleme River over the rainy and dry season periods was investigated. Results indicated that parameters like temperature, conductivity and total dissolved solids were higher during the dry than rainy seasons. Others like pH, phosphate, sulfate and dissolved oxygen had higher rainy than ...

[Animals' clever adaptation strategy for seasonal changes in environment].

Science.gov (United States)

Ikegami, Keisuke; Yoshimura, Takashi

2015-08-01

Organisms living outside of tropical zones experience seasonal changes in environment. Organisms are using day length as a calendar to change their physiology and behavior such as seasonal breeding, hibernation, migration, and molting. A comparative biology approach revealed underlying mechanisms of vertebrate seasonal reproduction. Here we review the current understanding of vertebrate seasonal reproduction. We Aso describe the involvement of tissue-specific post-translational modification in functional diversification of a hormone.

Global Seasonality of Rotavirus Disease

Science.gov (United States)

Patel, Manish M.; Pitzer, Virginia; Alonso, Wladimir J.; Vera, David; Lopman, Ben; Tate, Jacqueline; Viboud, Cecile; Parashar, Umesh D.

2012-01-01

Background A substantial number of surveillance studies have documented rotavirus prevalence among children admitted for dehydrating diarrhea. We sought to establish global seasonal patterns of rotavirus disease before widespread vaccine introduction. Methods We reviewed studies of rotavirus detection in children with diarrhea published since 1995. We assessed potential relationships between seasonal prevalence and locality by plotting the average monthly proportion of diarrhea cases positive for rotavirus according to geography, country development, and latitude. We used linear regression to identify variables that were potentially associated with the seasonal intensity of rotavirus. Results Among a total of 99 studies representing all six geographical regions of the world, patterns of year-round disease were more evident in low- and low-middle income countries compared with upper-middle and high income countries where disease was more likely to be seasonal. The level of country development was a stronger predictor of strength of seasonality (P=0.001) than geographical location or climate. However, the observation of distinctly different seasonal patterns of rotavirus disease in some countries with similar geographical location, climate and level of development indicate that a single unifying explanation for variation in seasonality of rotavirus disease is unlikely. Conclusion While no unifying explanation emerged for varying rotavirus seasonality globally, the country income level was somewhat more predictive of the likelihood of having seasonal disease than other factors. Future evaluation of the effect of rotavirus vaccination on seasonal patterns of disease in different settings may help understand factors that drive the global seasonality of rotavirus disease. PMID:23190782

Biophysical drivers of seasonal variability in Sphagnum gross primary production in a northern temperate bog

Science.gov (United States)

Walker, Anthony P.; Carter, Kelsey R.; Gu, Lianhong; Hanson, Paul J.; Malhotra, Avni; Norby, Richard J.; Sebestyen, Stephen D.; Wullschleger, Stan D.; Weston, David J.

2017-05-01

Sphagnum mosses are the keystone species of peatland ecosystems. With rapid rates of climate change occurring in high latitudes, vast reservoirs of carbon accumulated over millennia in peatland ecosystems are potentially vulnerable to rising temperature and changing precipitation. We investigate the seasonal drivers of Sphagnum gross primary production (GPP)—the entry point of carbon into wetland ecosystems. Continuous flux measurements and flux partitioning show a seasonal cycle of Sphagnum GPP that peaked in the late summer, well after the peak in photosynthetically active radiation. Wavelet analysis showed that water table height was the key driver of weekly variation in Sphagnum GPP in the early summer and that temperature was the primary driver of GPP in the late summer and autumn. Flux partitioning and a process-based model of Sphagnum photosynthesis demonstrated the likelihood of seasonally dynamic maximum rates of photosynthesis and a logistic relationship between the water table and photosynthesizing tissue area when the water table was at the Sphagnum surface. The model also suggested that variability in internal resistance to CO2 transport, a function of Sphagnum water content, had minimal effect on GPP. To accurately model Sphagnum GPP, we recommend the following: (1) understanding seasonal photosynthetic trait variation and its triggers in Sphagnum; (2) characterizing the interaction of Sphagnum photosynthesizing tissue area with water table height; (3) modeling Sphagnum as a "soil" layer for consistent simulation of water dynamics; and (4) measurement of Sphagnum "canopy" properties: extinction coefficient (k), clumping (Ω), and maximum stem area index (SAI).

Multi-tissue stable isotope analysis and acoustic telemetry reveal seasonal variability in the trophic interactions of juvenile bull sharks in a coastal estuary.

Science.gov (United States)

Matich, Philip; Heithaus, Michael R

2014-01-01

Understanding how natural and anthropogenic drivers affect extant food webs is critical to predicting the impacts of climate change and habitat alterations on ecosystem dynamics. In the Florida Everglades, seasonal reductions in freshwater flow and precipitation lead to annual migrations of aquatic taxa from marsh habitats to deep-water refugia in estuaries. The timing and intensity of freshwater reductions, however, will be modified by ongoing ecosystem restoration and predicted climate change. Understanding the importance of seasonally pulsed resources to predators is critical to predicting the impacts of management and climate change on their populations. As with many large predators, however, it is difficult to determine to what extent predators like bull sharks (Carcharhinus leucas) in the coastal Everglades make use of prey pulses currently. We used passive acoustic telemetry to determine whether shark movements responded to the pulse of marsh prey. To investigate the possibility that sharks fed on marsh prey, we modelled the predicted dynamics of stable isotope values in bull shark blood and plasma under different assumptions of temporal variability in shark diets and physiological dynamics of tissue turnover and isotopic discrimination. Bull sharks increased their use of upstream channels during the late dry season, and although our previous work shows long-term specialization in the diets of sharks, stable isotope values suggested that some individuals adjusted their diets to take advantage of prey entering the system from the marsh, and as such this may be an important resource for the nursery. Restoration efforts are predicted to increase hydroperiods and marsh water levels, likely shifting the timing, duration and intensity of prey pulses, which could have negative consequences for the bull shark population and/or induce shifts in behaviour. Understanding the factors influencing the propensity to specialize or adopt more flexible trophic interactions

Understanding the Dynamics of EngagingIinteraction in Public Spaces

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dalsgaard, Peter; Dindler, Christian; Halskov, Kim

We present an analysis of three interactive installations in public spaces, in terms of their support of engagement as an evolving process. In particular, we focus on how engagement unfolds as a dynamic process that may be understood in terms of evolving relations between cultural, physical......, content-related, and social elements of interactive environments. These elements are explored through the literature on engagement with interaction design, and it is argued that, although valuable contributions have been made towards understanding engagement with interactive environments, the ways...

Forage yield and nitrogen nutrition dynamics of warm-season native forage genotypes under two shading levels and in full sunlight

OpenAIRE

Barro,Raquel Santiago; Varella,Alexandre Costa; Lemaire,Gilles; Medeiros,Renato Borges de; Saibro,João Carlos de; Nabinger,Carlos; Bangel,Felipe Villamil; Carassai,Igor Justin

2012-01-01

The successful achievement of a highly productive understorey pasture in silvopastoral systems depends on the use of well-adapted forage genotypes, showing good agronomic performance and persistence under shading and grazing. In this study, the herbage dry matter yield (DMY) and nitrogen nutrition dynamics were determined in three native warm-season grasses (Paspalum regnellii, Paspalum dilatatum and Paspalum notatum) and a forage legume (Arachis pintoi) under two shading levels compared with...

Dynamic Graphics in Excel for Teaching Statistics: Understanding the Probability Density Function

Science.gov (United States)

Coll-Serrano, Vicente; Blasco-Blasco, Olga; Alvarez-Jareno, Jose A.

2011-01-01

In this article, we show a dynamic graphic in Excel that is used to introduce an important concept in our subject, Statistics I: the probability density function. This interactive graphic seeks to facilitate conceptual understanding of the main aspects analysed by the learners.

Highly diverse molluscan assemblages of Posidonia oceanica meadows in northwestern Alboran Sea (W Mediterranean): Seasonal dynamics and environmental drivers

Science.gov (United States)

Urra, Javier; Mateo Ramírez, Ángel; Marina, Pablo; Salas, Carmen; Gofas, Serge; Rueda, José L.

2013-01-01

The seasonal dynamics of the molluscan fauna associated with the westernmost populations of the Mediterranean seagrass Posidonia oceanica, has been studied throughout an annual cycle in the northwestern coasts of the Alboran Sea. Samples were collected seasonally (5 replicated per season) using a non-destructive sampling technique (airlift sampler) on quadrats of 50 × 50 cm at 2 sites located 7 km apart. Several environmental variables from the water column (temperature, chlorophyll a), the sediment (percentage of organic matter) and the seagrass meadows (shoot density, leaf height and width, number of leaves per shoot) were also measured in order to elucidate their relationships with the dynamics of the molluscan assemblages. In these meadows, a total of 17,416 individuals of molluscs were collected, belonging to 71 families and 171 species, being Rissoidae, Pyramidellidae and Trochidae the best-represented families, and Mytilidae, Nassaridae and Trochidae the dominant ones in terms of abundance. The assemblages were dominated by micro-algal grazers, filter feeders and ectoparasites (including those feeding on sessile preys). The species richness and the abundance displayed significant maximum values in summer, whereas evenness and diversity displayed maximum values in spring, being significant for the evenness. Both abundance and species richness values were positively correlated to seawater temperature and percentage organic matter, only for the latter, and negatively to leaf width. Significant seasonal groupings were obtained with multivariate analyses (MDS, Cluster, ANOSIM) using qualitative and quantitative data that could be mainly related to biological aspects (i.e. recruitment) of single species. The molluscan assemblages are influenced by the biogeographical location of the area (Alboran Sea), reflected in the absence or scarcity of most Mediterranean species strictly associated with P. oceanica (e.g. Tricolia speciosa, Rissoa ventricosa) and by the

Seasonal use of red-cockaded woodpecker cavities by southern flying squirrels.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Loeb, Susan C; Ruth, Deanna L

2004-12-31

Loeb, Susan C., and Deanna L. Ruth. 2004. Seasonal use of red-cockaded woodpecker cavities by southern flying squirrels. In: Red-cockaded woodpecker; Road to Recovery. Proceedings of the 4th Red-cockaded woodpecker Symposium. Ralph Costa and Susan J. Daniels, eds. Savannah, Georgia. January, 2003. Chapter 8. Cavities, Cavity Trees, and Cavity Communities. Pp 501-502. Abstract: Southern flying squirrels can significantly impact red-cockaded woodpecker reproductive success (Laves and Loeb 1999). Thus exclusion or removal of flying squirrels from red-cockaded woodpecker cavities and clusters may be warranted in small woodpecker populations (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 2003). However, development of effective and efficient protocols for southern flying squirrel control requires an understanding of the seasonal dynamics of southern flying squirrel cavity use. Most studies of southern flying squirrel use of red-cockaded woodpecker cavities have been conducted during spring (e.g., Harlow and Lennartz 1983, Rudolph et al. 1990a, Loeb 1993) and no studies have examined the effects of long term flying squirrel control on subsequent cavity use. The objectives of this study were to determine: (1) whether flying squirrel use of red-cockaded woodpecker cavities varies with season or cavity type, and (2) the long term effect of continuous squirrel removal.

Seasonal dynamics and micro-climatic preference of two Alpine endemic hypogean beetles

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stefano Mammola

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Hypogean beetles generally live in stable environments, characterized by constant temperature and high relative humidity. Changes in the underground microclimatic conditions generally induce local migrations of the beetles through the hypogean environment in search of suitable microhabitats. We studied the seasonal dynamics and the micro-climatic preference of two Alpine endemic hypogean beetles - Sphodropsis ghilianii (Coleoptera, Carabidae and Dellabeffaella roccae (Coleoptera, Cholevidae - in the hypogean complex of Pugnetto (Graian Alps, Italy. We surveyed the two species for one year, using baited pitfall traps and measuring temperature and humidity along the two main caves. We used logistic regression mixed models (GLMMs to relate the presence of the two species to several variables, namely microclimate (seasonality, temperature, and humidity, subjacency and cave length. In addition, we tested the attractive power of the bait on the two species. The thermic optimum for S. ghilianii was found to be around 7°C, with an increasing probability of finding the species in the vicinity of the cave entrance during summer, autumn and spring. The species migrates inside the cave in winter, in response to the drop in the mean daily temperature and in the relative humidity occurring in the outer parts of the cave. On the contrary, D. roccae showed a significant preference for the deeper sections of the cave, characterized by an almost constant temperature of 9°C in air saturated with water vapour. Males and females individuals of both species were found to be equally affected by the environmental variables included in the analysis. We also provided information on the life history of the two species and methodological insights about the use of the bait in the traps

Developing a Framework for Seamless Prediction of Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Rosendahl, D. H.; Ćwik, P.; Martin, E. R.; Basara, J. B.; Brooks, H. E.; Furtado, J. C.; Homeyer, C. R.; Lazrus, H.; Mcpherson, R. A.; Mullens, E.; Richman, M. B.; Robinson-Cook, A.

2017-12-01

Extreme precipitation events cause significant damage to homes, businesses, infrastructure, and agriculture, as well as many injures and fatalities as a result of fast-moving water or waterborne diseases. In the USA, these natural hazard events claimed the lives of more than 300 people during 2015 - 2016 alone, with total damage reaching $24.4 billion. Prior studies of extreme precipitation events have focused on the sub-daily to sub-weekly timeframes. However, many decisions for planning, preparing and resilience-building require sub-seasonal to seasonal timeframes (S2S; 14 to 90 days), but adequate forecasting tools for prediction do not exist. Therefore, the goal of this newly funded project is an enhancement in understanding of the large-scale forcing and dynamics of S2S extreme precipitation events in the United States, and improved capability for modeling and predicting such events. Here, we describe the project goals, objectives, and research activities that will take place over the next 5 years. In this project, a unique team of scientists and stakeholders will identify and understand weather and climate processes connected with the prediction of S2S extreme precipitation events by answering these research questions: 1) What are the synoptic patterns associated with, and characteristic of, S2S extreme precipitation evens in the contiguous U.S.? 2) What role, if any, do large-scale modes of climate variability play in modulating these events? 3) How predictable are S2S extreme precipitation events across temporal scales? 4) How do we create an informative prediction of S2S extreme precipitation events for policymaking and planing? This project will use observational data, high-resolution radar composites, dynamical climate models and workshops that engage stakeholders (water resource managers, emergency managers and tribal environmental professionals) in co-production of knowledge. The overarching result of this project will be predictive models to reduce of

Seasonal dynamics, age structure and reproduction of four Carabus species (Coleoptera: Carabidae) living in forested landscapes in Hungary

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kádár, Ferenc; Fazekas, Judit P.; Sárospataki, Miklós

2015-01-01

Seasonal dynamics and reproductive phenological parameters of four Carabus species (C. convexus, C. coriaceus, C. germarii and C. hortensis) common in Hungary were studied by pitfall trapping and dissection. Beetles were collected in an abandoned apple orchard and in the bordering oak forest near...... Budapest (Central Hungary), in 1988–1991. The sex ratio was male-dominated, but this was significant only for C. coriaceus. The catch of C. germarii adults showed relatively short activity period with unimodal curve, but activity was longer and bimodal for the other three species. Adults of C. germarii...

Dynamical Downscaling of Seasonal Climate Prediction over Nordeste Brazil with ECHAM3 and NCEP's Regional Spectral Models at IRI.

Science.gov (United States)

Nobre, Paulo; Moura, Antonio D.; Sun, Liqiang

2001-12-01

This study presents an evaluation of a seasonal climate forecast done with the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) dynamical forecast system (regional model nested into a general circulation model) over northern South America for January-April 1999, encompassing the rainy season over Brazil's Nordeste. The one-way nesting is one in two tiers: first the NCEP's Regional Spectral Model (RSM) runs with an 80-km grid mesh forced by the ECHAM3 atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) outputs; then the RSM runs with a finer grid mesh (20 km) forced by the forecasts generated by the RSM-80. An ensemble of three realizations is done. Lower boundary conditions over the oceans for both ECHAM and RSM model runs are sea surface temperature forecasts over the tropical oceans. Soil moisture is initialized by ECHAM's inputs. The rainfall forecasts generated by the regional model are compared with those of the AGCM and observations. It is shown that the regional model at 80-km resolution improves upon the AGCM rainfall forecast, reducing both seasonal bias and root-mean-square error. On the other hand, the RSM-20 forecasts presented larger errors, with spatial patterns that resemble those of local topography. The better forecast of the position and width of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) over the tropical Atlantic by the RSM-80 model is one of the principal reasons for better-forecast scores of the RSM-80 relative to the AGCM. The regional model improved the spatial as well as the temporal details of rainfall distribution, and also presenting the minimum spread among the ensemble members. The statistics of synoptic-scale weather variability on seasonal timescales were best forecast with the regional 80-km model over the Nordeste. The possibility of forecasting the frequency distribution of dry and wet spells within the rainy season is encouraging.

Bilinear modulation models for seasonal tables of counts

NARCIS (Netherlands)

B.D. Marx (Brian); P.H.C. Eilers (Paul); J. Gampe (Jutta); R. Rau (Roland)

2010-01-01

textabstractWe propose generalized linear models for time or age-time tables of seasonal counts, with the goal of better understanding seasonal patterns in the data. The linear predictor contains a smooth component for the trend and the product of a smooth component (the modulation) and a periodic

Understanding the predictability of seasonal precipitation over northeast Brazil

Science.gov (United States)

Misra, Vasubandhu

2006-05-01

Using multiple long-term simulations of the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced with observed sea surface temperature (SST), it is shown that the model has high skill in simulating the February-March-April (FMA) rainy season over northeast Brazil (Nordeste). Separate sensitivity experiments conducted with the same model that entails suppression of all variability except for the climatological annual cycle in SST over the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans reveal that this skill over Nordeste is sensitive to SST anomalies in the tropical Atlantic Ocean. However, the spatial pattern of SST anomalies in the tropical Atlantic Ocean that correlate with FMA Nordeste rainfall are in fact a manifestation of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean. This study also analyzes the failure of the COLA AGCM in capturing the correct FMA precipitation anomalies over Nordeste in several years of the simulation. It is found that this failure occurs when the SST anomalies over the northern tropical Atlantic Ocean are large and not significantly correlated with contemporaneous SST anomalies over the eastern Pacific Ocean. In two of the relatively large ENSO years when the model failed to capture the correct signal of the interannual variability of precipitation over Nordeste, it was found that the meridional gradient of SST anomalies over the tropical Atlantic Ocean was inconsistent with the canonical development of ENSO. The analysis of the probabilistic skill of the model revealed that it has more skill in predicting flood years than drought. Furthermore, the model has no skill in predicting normal seasons. These model features are consistent with the model systematic errors.

Simulated sensitivity of African terrestrial ecosystem photosynthesis to rainfall frequency, intensity, and rainy season length

Science.gov (United States)

Guan, Kaiyu; Good, Stephen P.; Caylor, Kelly K.; Medvigy, David; Pan, Ming; Wood, Eric F.; Sato, Hisashi; Biasutti, Michela; Chen, Min; Ahlström, Anders; Xu, Xiangtao

2018-02-01

There is growing evidence of ongoing changes in the statistics of intra-seasonal rainfall variability over large parts of the world. Changes in annual total rainfall may arise from shifts, either singly or in a combination, of distinctive intra-seasonal characteristics -i.e. rainfall frequency, rainfall intensity, and rainfall seasonality. Understanding how various ecosystems respond to the changes in intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics is critical for predictions of future biome shifts and ecosystem services under climate change, especially for arid and semi-arid ecosystems. Here, we use an advanced dynamic vegetation model (SEIB-DGVM) coupled with a stochastic rainfall/weather simulator to answer the following question: how does the productivity of ecosystems respond to a given percentage change in the total seasonal rainfall that is realized by varying only one of the three rainfall characteristics (rainfall frequency, intensity, and rainy season length)? We conducted ensemble simulations for continental Africa for a realistic range of changes (-20% ~ +20%) in total rainfall amount. We find that the simulated ecosystem productivity (measured by gross primary production, GPP) shows distinctive responses to the intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics. Specifically, increase in rainfall frequency can lead to 28% more GPP increase than the same percentage increase in rainfall intensity; in tropical woodlands, GPP sensitivity to changes in rainy season length is ~4 times larger than to the same percentage changes in rainfall frequency or intensity. In contrast, shifts in the simulated biome distribution are much less sensitive to intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics than they are to total rainfall amount. Our results reveal three major distinctive productivity responses to seasonal rainfall variability—‘chronic water stress’, ‘acute water stress’ and ‘minimum water stress’ - which are respectively associated with three broad spatial patterns of

Seasonal dynamics of the inorganic nutrients from auatic comple SomovaParche in 21

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

SECELEANUODOR Daniela

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The existence of nitrogen compounds influence variety, abundance and nutritional value of aquatic organisms. This study aimes to analyze the dynamic of nutrient inorganic forms in spring (March, summer (July and autumn (September seasons, in 2016. The selected sampling points were: SomovaParcheş complex inlet (S1, Somova-Parches complex outlet channel into the Danube River (S2, rainwater and cooling water discharge from the industrial zone of Tulcea (S3, Casla lake (S4, Somova lake (S5, Parches lake (S6, Rotundu lake (S6. Study results show that the physico-chemical characteristics and surface water quality from the aquatic complex Somova-Parches are determined by natural factors (climate, flowing regime and also by the effects of industrial activities of Tulcea town. Also, it were identified exceedings of maximum allowed concentrations for good ecological status, established by the Water Framework Directive transposed into Romanian legislation through MMGA Order 161/2006.

Prediction of the Arctic Oscillation in Boreal Winter by Dynamical Seasonal Forecasting Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Kang, Daehyun; Lee, Myong-In; Im, Jungho; Kim, Daehyun; Kim, Hye-Mi; Kang, Hyun-Suk; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Arribas, Alberto; MacLachlan, Craig

2014-01-01

This study assesses the skill of boreal winter Arctic Oscillation (AO) predictions with state-of-the-art dynamical ensemble prediction systems (EPSs): GloSea4, CFSv2, GEOS-5, CanCM3, CanCM4, and CM2.1. Long-term reforecasts with the EPSs are used to evaluate how well they represent the AO and to assess the skill of both deterministic and probabilistic forecasts of the AO. The reforecasts reproduce the observed changes in the large-scale patterns of the Northern Hemispheric surface temperature, upper level wind, and precipitation associated with the different phases of the AO. The results demonstrate that most EPSs improve upon persistence skill scores for lead times up to 2 months in boreal winter, suggesting some potential for skillful prediction of the AO and its associated climate anomalies at seasonal time scales. It is also found that the skill of AO forecasts during the recent period (1997-2010) is higher than that of the earlier period (1983-1996).

Host and viral ecology determine bat rabies seasonality and maintenance

Science.gov (United States)

George, D.B.; Webb, C.T.; Farnsworth, Matthew L.; O'Shea, T.J.; Bowen, R.A.; Smith, D.L.; Stanley, T.R.; Ellison, L.E.; Rupprecht, C.E.

2011-01-01

Rabies is an acute viral infection that is typically fatal. Most rabies modeling has focused on disease dynamics and control within terrestrial mammals (e.g., raccoons and foxes). As such, rabies in bats has been largely neglected until recently. Because bats have been implicated as natural reservoirs for several emerging zoonotic viruses, including SARS-like corona viruses, henipaviruses, and lyssaviruses, understanding how pathogens are maintained within a population becomes vital. Unfortunately, little is known about maintenance mechanisms for any pathogen in bat populations. We present a mathematical model parameterized with unique data from an extensive study of rabies in a Colorado population of big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus) to elucidate general maintenance mechanisms. We propose that life history patterns of many species of temperate-zone bats, coupled with sufficiently long incubation periods, allows for rabies virus maintenance. Seasonal variability in bat mortality rates, specifically low mortality during hibernation, allows long-term bat population viability. Within viable bat populations, sufficiently long incubation periods allow enough infected individuals to enter hibernation and survive until the following year, and hence avoid an epizootic fadeout of rabies virus. We hypothesize that the slowing effects of hibernation on metabolic and viral activity maintains infected individuals and their pathogens until susceptibles from the annual birth pulse become infected and continue the cycle. This research provides a context to explore similar host ecology and viral dynamics that may explain seasonal patterns and maintenance of other bat-borne diseases.

Seasonal dynamics of butterfly population in DAE Campus, Kalpakkam, Tamil Nadu, India

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K.J. Hussain

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Seasonal population trends of butterflies inhabiting the campus of Department of Atomic Energy (DAE at Kalpakkam were recorded by setting a permanent line transect of 300m and recording all species of butterflies observed within a 5m distance. The survey yielded 2177 individuals of 56 butterfly species, belonging to the families Nymphalidae, Pieridae, Lycaenidae, Papilionidae and Hesperiidae. Nymphalidae were found to be the dominant family during all seasons. Species richness and abundance were highest during the northeast monsoon and winter periods, indicating that in the southern plains of India butterflies prefer cool seasons for breeding and emergence. The taxonomic structure of the butterflies sampled resembles that of the Western Ghats and other regions of India in two ways: (a dominance of nymphalids and (b peak abundance during wet seasons. A detailed study of ecologically important local butterfly fauna and their host plants is in progress, to construct a butterfly garden in Kalpakkam to attract and support butterflies.

Factors associated with differential uptake of seasonal influenza immunizations among underserved communities during the 2009-2010 influenza season.

Science.gov (United States)

Vlahov, David; Bond, Keosha T; Jones, Kandice C; Ompad, Danielle C

2012-04-01

Influenza vaccination coverage remains low and disparities persist. In New York City, a community-based participatory research project (Project VIVA) worked to address this issue in Harlem and the South Bronx by supplementing existing vaccination programs with non-traditional venues (i.e., community-based organizations). We conducted a 10 min survey to assess access to influenza vaccine as well as attitudes and beliefs towards influenza vaccination that could inform intervention development for subsequent seasons. Among 991 participants recruited using street intercept techniques, 63% received seasonal vaccine only, 11% seasonal and H1N1, and 26% neither; 89% reported seeing a health care provider (HCP) during the influenza season. Correlates of immunization among those with provider visits during the influenza season included being US-born, interest in getting the vaccine, concern about self or family getting influenza, an HCP's recommendation and comfort with government. Among those without an HCP visit, factors associated with immunization included being US born, married, interest in getting the vaccine, understanding influenza information, and concern about getting influenza. Factors associated with lack of interest in influenza vaccine included being born outside the US, Black and uncomfortable with government. In medically underserved areas, having access to routine medical care and understanding the medical implications of influenza play an important role in enhancing uptake of seasonal influenza vaccination. Strategies to improve vaccination rates among Blacks and foreign-born residents need to be addressed. The use of non-traditional venues to provide influenza vaccinations in underserved communities has the potential to reduce health disparities.

Seasonal Dynamics of Academic Achievement Inequality by Socioeconomic Status and Race/Ethnicity

Science.gov (United States)

Quinn, David M.; Cooc, North; McIntyre, Joe; Gomez, Celia J.

2016-01-01

Early studies examining seasonal variation in academic achievement inequality generally concluded that socioeconomic test score gaps grew more over the summer than the school year, suggesting schools served as "equalizers." In this study, we analyze seasonal trends in socioeconomic status (SES) and racial/ethnic test score gaps using…

Geophysical fluid dynamics understanding (almost) everything with rotating shallow water models

CERN Document Server

Zeitlin, Vladimir

2018-01-01

The book explains the key notions and fundamental processes in the dynamics of the fluid envelopes of the Earth (transposable to other planets), and methods of their analysis, from the unifying viewpoint of rotating shallow-water model (RSW). The model, in its one- or two-layer versions, plays a distinguished role in geophysical fluid dynamics, having been used for around a century for conceptual understanding of various phenomena, for elaboration of approaches and methods, to be applied later in more complete models, for development and testing of numerical codes and schemes of data assimilations, and many other purposes. Principles of modelling of large-scale atmospheric and oceanic flows, and corresponding approximations, are explained and it is shown how single- and multi-layer versions of RSW arise from the primitive equations by vertical averaging, and how further time-averaging produces celebrated quasi-geostrophic reductions of the model. Key concepts of geophysical fluid dynamics are exposed and inte...

Towards the use of dynamic growing seasons in a chemical transport model

Science.gov (United States)

Sakalli, A.; Simpson, D.

2012-12-01

Chemical transport models (CTMs), used for the prediction of, for example, nitrogen deposition or air quality changes, require estimates of the growing season of plants for a number of reasons. Typically, the growing seasons are defined in a very simplified way in CTMs, using fixed dates or simple functions. In order to explore the importance of more realistic growing season estimates, we have developed a new and simple method (the T5 method) for calculating the start of the growing season (SGS) of birch (which we use as a surrogate for deciduous trees), suitable for use in CTMs and other modelling systems. We developed the T5 method from observations, and here we compare with these and other methodologies, and show that with just two parameters T5 captures well the spatial variation in SGS across Europe. We use the EMEP MSC-W chemical transport model to illustrate the importance of improved SGS estimates for ozone and two metrics associated with ozone damage to vegetation. This study shows that although inclusion of more realistic growing seasons has only small effects on annual average concentrations of pollutants such as ozone, the metrics associated with vegetation risk from ozone are significantly affected. This work demonstrates a strong need to include more realistic treatments of growing seasons in CTMs. The method used here could also be suitable for other types of models that require information on vegetation cover, such as meteorological and regional climate models. In future work, the T5 and other methods will be further evaluated for other forest species, as well as for agricultural and grassland land covers, which are important for emissions and deposition of reactive nitrogen compounds.

Cost of living in free-ranging degus (Octodon degus) : seasonal dynamics of energy expenditure

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bozinovic, F; Bacigalupe, LD; Vasquez, RA; Visser, GH; Veloso, C; Kenagy, GJ

Animals process and allocate energy at different seasons at variable rates, depending on their breeding season and changes in environmental conditions and resulting physiological demands. Overall total energy expenditure, in turn, should either increase in some seasons due to special added demands

Seasonal patterns of predation for gray wolves in the multi-prey system of Yellowstone National Park.

Science.gov (United States)

Metz, Matthew C; Smith, Douglas W; Vucetich, John A; Stahler, Daniel R; Peterson, Rolf O

2012-05-01

1. For large predators living in seasonal environments, patterns of predation are likely to vary among seasons because of related changes in prey vulnerability. Variation in prey vulnerability underlies the influence of predators on prey populations and the response of predators to seasonal variation in rates of biomass acquisition. Despite its importance, seasonal variation in predation is poorly understood. 2. We assessed seasonal variation in prey composition and kill rate for wolves Canis lupus living on the Northern Range (NR) of Yellowstone National Park. Our assessment was based on data collected over 14 winters (1995-2009) and five spring-summers between 2004 and 2009. 3. The species composition of wolf-killed prey and the age and sex composition of wolf-killed elk Cervus elaphus (the primary prey for NR wolves) varied among seasons. 4. One's understanding of predation depends critically on the metric used to quantify kill rate. For example, kill rate was greatest in summer when quantified as the number of ungulates acquired per wolf per day, and least during summer when kill rate was quantified as the biomass acquired per wolf per day. This finding contradicts previous research that suggests that rates of biomass acquisition for large terrestrial carnivores tend not to vary among seasons. 5. Kill rates were not well correlated among seasons. For example, knowing that early-winter kill rate is higher than average (compared with other early winters) provides little basis for anticipating whether kill rates a few months later during late winter will be higher or lower than average (compared with other late winters). This observation indicates how observing, for example, higher-than-average kill rates throughout any particular season is an unreliable basis for inferring that the year-round average kill rate would be higher than average. 6. Our work shows how a large carnivore living in a seasonal environment displays marked seasonal variation in

When do predatory mites (Phytoseiidae) attack? Understanding their diel and seasonal predation patterns.

Science.gov (United States)

Pérez-Sayas, Consuelo; Aguilar-Fenollosa, Ernestina; Hurtado, Mónica A; Jaques, Josep A; Pina, Tatiana

2017-06-16

Predatory mites of the Phytoseiidae family are considered one of the most important groups of natural enemies used in biological control. The behavioral patterns of arthropods can differ greatly daily and seasonally; however, there is a lack of literature related to Phytoseiidae diel and seasonal predation patterns. The predatory activity of three phytoseiid species (two Tetranychidae-specialists, Phytoseiulus persimilis and Neoseiulus californicus, and one omnivore, Euseius stipulatus) that occur naturally in Spanish citrus orchards was observed under laboratory conditions in winter and summer. The temperature and photoperiod of the climatic chamber where the mites were reared did not change during the experiment. Our study demonstrates that phytoseiids can exhibit diel and seasonal predatory patterns when feeding on Tetranychus urticae (Acari: Tetranychidae). Neoseiulus californicus was revealed to be a nocturnal predator in summer but diurnal in winter. In contrast, P. persimilis activity was maximal during the daytime, and E. stipulatus showed no clear daily predation patterns. The predatory patterns described in this study should be taken into account when designing laboratory studies and also in field samplings, especially when applying molecular techniques to unveil trophic relationships. © 2017 Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences.

Diurnal and Seasonal Statistical Characteristics of Well-formed Plasma Depletion and Enhancement Plumes under Quiet Solar Conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Haaser, R. A.

2011-12-01

The Ion Velocity Meter (IVM), a part of the Coupled Ion Neutral Dynamics Investigation (CINDI) aboard the Communication/ Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) satellite, is used to measure in situ ion densities and drifts at altitudes between 400 and 550 km during the nighttime hours from 2100 to 300 local time. A new approach to detecting and classifying well-formed ionospheric plasma depletion and enhancement plumes (bubbles and blobs) of scale sizes between 50 and 500 km is used to develop geophysical statistics for the summer, winter and equinox seasons of the quiet solar conditions during 2009 and 2010. Some diurnal and seasonal geomagnetic distribution characteristics confirm previous work on irregularities and scintillations, while others reveal new behaviors that require additional observations and modeling to promote full understanding.

Seasonal predictability of Kiremt rainfall in coupled general circulation models

Science.gov (United States)

Gleixner, Stephanie; Keenlyside, Noel S.; Demissie, Teferi D.; Counillon, François; Wang, Yiguo; Viste, Ellen

2017-11-01

The Ethiopian economy and population is strongly dependent on rainfall. Operational seasonal predictions for the main rainy season (Kiremt, June-September) are based on statistical approaches with Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST) as the main predictor. Here we analyse dynamical predictions from 11 coupled general circulation models for the Kiremt seasons from 1985-2005 with the forecasts starting from the beginning of May. We find skillful predictions from three of the 11 models, but no model beats a simple linear prediction model based on the predicted Niño3.4 indices. The skill of the individual models for dynamically predicting Kiremt rainfall depends on the strength of the teleconnection between Kiremt rainfall and concurrent Pacific SST in the models. Models that do not simulate this teleconnection fail to capture the observed relationship between Kiremt rainfall and the large-scale Walker circulation.

Seasonal dynamics of soil CO2 efflux and soil profile CO2 concentrations in arboretum of Moscow botanical garden

Science.gov (United States)

Goncharova, Olga; Udovenko, Maria; Matyshak, Georgy

2016-04-01

To analyse and predict recent and future climate change on a global scale exchange processes of greenhouse gases - primarily carbon dioxide - over various ecosystems are of rising interest. In order to upscale land-use dependent sources and sinks of CO2, knowledge of the local variability of carbon fluxes is needed. Among terrestrial ecosystems, urban areas play an important role because most of anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide originate from these areas. On the other hand, urban soils have the potential to store large amounts of soil organic carbon and, thus, contribute to mitigating increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Research objectives: 1) estimate the seasonal dynamics of carbon dioxide production (emission - closed chamber technique and profile concentration - soil air sampling tubes method) by soils of Moscow State University Botanical Garden Arboretum planted with Picea obovata and Pinus sylvestris, 1) identification the factors that control CO2 production. The study was conducted with 1-2 weeks intervals between October 2013 and November 2015 at two sites. Carbon dioxide soil surface efflux during the year ranged from 0 to 800 mgCO2/(m2hr). Efflux values above 0 mgCO2/(m2hr) was observed during the all cold period except for only 3 weeks. Soil CO2 concentration ranged from 1600-3000 ppm in upper 10-cm layer to 10000-40000 ppm at a depth of 60 cm. The maximum concentrations of CO2 were recorded in late winter and late summer. We associate it with high biological activity (both heterotrophic and autotrophic) during the summer, and with physical gas jamming in the winter. The high value of annual CO2 production of the studied soils is caused by high organic matter content, slightly alkaline reaction, good structure and texture of urban soils. Differences in soil CO2 production by spruce and pine urban forest soils (in the pine forest 1.5-2.0 times higher) are caused by urban soil profiles construction, but not temperature regimes. Seasonal

Using interviews and biological sign surveys to infer seasonal use of forested and agricultural portions of a human-dominated landscape by Asian elephants in Nepal

Science.gov (United States)

Lamichhane, Babu Ram; Subedi, Naresh; Pokheral, Chiranjibi Prasad; Dhakal, Maheshwar; Acharya, Krishna Prasad; Pradhan, Narendra Man Babu; Smith, James L. David; Malla, Sabita; Thakuri, Bishnu Singh; Yackulic, Charles B.

2018-01-01

Understanding how wide-ranging animals use landscapes in which human use is highly heterogeneous is important for determining patterns of human–wildlife conflict and designing mitigation strategies. Here, we show how biological sign surveys in forested components of a human-dominated landscape can be combined with human interviews in agricultural portions of a landscape to provide a full picture of seasonal use of different landscape components by wide-ranging animals and resulting human–wildlife conflict. We selected Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) in Nepal to illustrate this approach. Asian elephants are threatened throughout their geographic range, and there are large gaps in our understanding of their landscape-scale habitat use. We identified all potential elephant habitat in Nepal and divided the potential habitat into sampling units based on a 10 km by 10 km grid. Forested areas within grids were surveyed for signs of elephant use, and local villagers were interviewed regarding elephant use of agricultural areas and instances of conflict. Data were analyzed using single-season and multi-season (dynamic) occupancy models. A single-season occupancy model applied to data from 139 partially or wholly forested grid cells estimated that 0.57 of grid cells were used by elephants. Dynamic occupancy models fit to data from interviews across 158 grid cells estimated that monthly use of non-forested, human-dominated areas over the preceding year varied between 0.43 and 0.82 with a minimum in February and maximum in October. Seasonal patterns of crop raiding by elephants coincided with monthly elephant use of human-dominated areas, and serious instances of human–wildlife conflict were common. Efforts to mitigate human–elephant conflict in Nepal are likely to be most effective if they are concentrated during August through December when elephant use of human-dominated landscapes and human–elephant conflict are most common.

Demographic processes in a local population: seasonal dynamics of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

... differences in daily recruitment and within-patch survival rates. Males were most abundant relative to females early in the season, indicating protandry. Total adult population size was small and showed dramatic variation between the two years, indicating how vulnerable the local population is to demographic extinction.

Understanding the evolution of the 2014–2016 summer rainfall seasons in southern Africa: Key lessons

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emma Rosa Mary Archer

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The recent 2015/16 summer rainfall season in the terrestrial Southern African Development Community (SADC region appears to be the most severe since the droughts of the early 1980s and 1990s; with well-publicized significant impacts on agriculture and food security. Impacts have been particularly concerning since the 2015/6 season followed a poor rainy season in 2014/15, in certain areas compounding already compromised production (total maize production was, for example, down 40% relative to the previous 5 year average. This paper reviews climate forecasts and observations of the two seasons, and presents examples of the resulting impacts on agriculture within the region. We conclude by considering what may be learnt from this experience, focussing on operational recommendations for early warning within SADC, as well as longstanding needs for awareness raising and capacity building.

Challenges in microbial ecology: Building predictive understanding of community function and dynamics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Widder, Stefanie; Allen, Rosalind J.; Pfeiffer, Thomas

2016-01-01

The importance of microbial communities (MCs) cannot be overstated. MCs underpin the biogeochemical cycles of the earth's soil, oceans and the atmosphere, and perform ecosystem functions that impact plants, animals and humans. Yet our ability to predict and manage the function of these highly...... complex, dynamically changing communities is limited. Building predictive models that link MC composition to function is a key emerging challenge in microbial ecology. Here, we argue that addressing this challenge requires close coordination of experimental data collection and method development...... is needed to achieve significant progress in our understanding of MC dynamics and function, and we make specific practical suggestions as to how this could be achieved....

Exploring the physical controls of regional patterns of flow duration curves – Part 2: Role of seasonality, the regime curve, and associated process controls

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M. Sivapalan

2012-11-01

Full Text Available The goal of this paper is to explore the process controls underpinning regional patterns of variations of streamflow regime behavior, i.e., the mean seasonal variation of streamflow within the year, across the continental United States. The ultimate motivation is to use the resulting process understanding to generate insights into the physical controls of another signature of streamflow variability, namely the flow duration curve (FDC. The construction of the FDC removes the time dependence of flows. Thus in order to better understand the physical controls in regions that exhibit strong seasonal dependence, the regime curve (RC, which is closely connected to the FDC, is studied in this paper and later linked back to the FDC. To achieve these aims a top-down modeling approach is adopted; we start with a simple two-stage bucket model, which is systematically enhanced through addition of new processes on the basis of model performance assessment in relation to observations, using rainfall-runoff data from 197 United States catchments belonging to the MOPEX dataset. Exploration of dominant processes and the determination of required model complexity are carried out through model-based sensitivity analyses, guided by a performance metric. Results indicated systematic regional trends in dominant processes: snowmelt was a key process control in cold mountainous catchments in the north and north-west, whereas snowmelt and vegetation cover dynamics were key controls in the north-east; seasonal vegetation cover dynamics (phenology and interception were important along the Appalachian mountain range in the east. A simple two-bucket model (with no other additions was found to be adequate in warm humid catchments along the west coast and in the south-east, with both regions exhibiting strong seasonality, whereas much more complex models are needed in the dry south and south-west. Agricultural catchments in the mid-west were found to be difficult to predict

Understanding the Seasonal Greenness Trends and Controls in South Asia Using Satellite Based Observations

Science.gov (United States)

Sarmah, S.; Jia, G.; Zhang, A.; Singha, M.

2017-12-01

South Asia (SA) is one of the most remarkable regions in changing vegetation greenness along with its major expansion of agricultural activity, especially irrigated farming. However, SA is predicted to be a vulnerable agricultural regions to future climate changes. The influence of monsoon climate on the seasonal trends and anomalies of vegetation greenness are not well understood in the region which can provide valuable information about climate-ecosystem interaction. This study analyzed the spatio-temporal patterns of seasonal vegetation trends and variability using satellite vegetation indices (VI) including AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) (1982-2013) and MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) (2000-2013) in summer monsoon (SM) (June-Sept) and winter monsoon (WM) (Dec-Apr) seasons among irrigated cropland (IC), rainfed cropland (RC) and natural vegetation (NV). Seasonal VI variations with climatic factors (precipitation and temperature) and LULC changes have been investigated to identify the forcings behind the vegetation trends and variability. We found that major greening occurred in the last three decades due to the increase in IC productivity noticeably in WM, however, recent (2000-2013) greening trends were lower than the previous decades (1982-1999) in both the IC and RC indicating the stresses on them. The browning trends, mainly concentrated in NV areas were prominent during WM and rigorous since 2000, confirmed from the moderate resolution EVI and LULC datasets. Winter time maximal temperature had been increasing tremendously whereas precipitation trend was not significant over SA. Both the climate variability and LULC changes had integrated effects on the vegetation changes in NV areas specifically in hilly regions. However, LULC impact was intensified since 2000, mostly in north east India. This study also revealed a distinct seasonal variation in spatial distribution of correlation between VI's and climate anomalies over SA

Understanding and seasonal forecasting of hydrological drought in the Anthropocene

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

X. Yuan

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Hydrological drought is not only caused by natural hydroclimate variability but can also be directly altered by human interventions including reservoir operation, irrigation, groundwater exploitation, etc. Understanding and forecasting of hydrological drought in the Anthropocene are grand challenges due to complicated interactions among climate, hydrology and humans. In this paper, five decades (1961–2010 of naturalized and observed streamflow datasets are used to investigate hydrological drought characteristics in a heavily managed river basin, the Yellow River basin in north China. Human interventions decrease the correlation between hydrological and meteorological droughts, and make the hydrological drought respond to longer timescales of meteorological drought. Due to large water consumptions in the middle and lower reaches, there are 118–262 % increases in the hydrological drought frequency, up to 8-fold increases in the drought severity, 21–99 % increases in the drought duration and the drought onset is earlier. The non-stationarity due to anthropogenic climate change and human water use basically decreases the correlation between meteorological and hydrological droughts and reduces the effect of human interventions on hydrological drought frequency while increasing the effect on drought duration and severity. A set of 29-year (1982–2010 hindcasts from an established seasonal hydrological forecasting system are used to assess the forecast skill of hydrological drought. In the naturalized condition, the climate-model-based approach outperforms the climatology method in predicting the 2001 severe hydrological drought event. Based on the 29-year hindcasts, the former method has a Brier skill score of 11–26 % against the latter for the probabilistic hydrological drought forecasting. In the Anthropocene, the skill for both approaches increases due to the dominant influence of human interventions that have been implicitly

Behavioural responses to thermal conditions affect seasonal mass change in a heat-sensitive northern ungulate.

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Floris M van Beest

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Empirical tests that link temperature-mediated changes in behaviour (activity and resource selection to individual fitness or condition are currently lacking for endotherms yet may be critical to understanding the effect of climate change on population dynamics. Moose (Alces alces are thought to suffer from heat stress in all seasons so provide a good biological model to test whether exposure to non-optimal ambient temperatures influence seasonal changes in body mass. Seasonal mass change is an important fitness correlate of large herbivores and affects reproductive success of female moose. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using GPS-collared adult female moose from two populations in southern Norway we quantified individual differences in seasonal activity budget and resource selection patterns as a function of seasonal temperatures thought to induce heat stress in moose. Individual body mass was recorded in early and late winter, and autumn to calculate seasonal mass changes (n = 52 over winter, n = 47 over summer. We found large individual differences in temperature-dependent resource selection patterns as well as within and between season variability in thermoregulatory strategies. As expected, individuals using an optimal strategy, selecting young successional forest (foraging habitat at low ambient temperatures and mature coniferous forest (thermal shelter during thermally stressful conditions, lost less mass in winter and gained more mass in summer. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This study provides evidence that behavioural responses to temperature have important consequences for seasonal mass change in moose living in the south of their distribution in Norway, and may be a contributing factor to recently observed declines in moose demographic performance. Although the mechanisms that underlie the observed temperature mediated habitat-fitness relationship remain to be tested, physiological state and individual variation in

Behavioural responses to thermal conditions affect seasonal mass change in a heat-sensitive northern ungulate.

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van Beest, Floris M; Milner, Jos M

2013-01-01

Empirical tests that link temperature-mediated changes in behaviour (activity and resource selection) to individual fitness or condition are currently lacking for endotherms yet may be critical to understanding the effect of climate change on population dynamics. Moose (Alces alces) are thought to suffer from heat stress in all seasons so provide a good biological model to test whether exposure to non-optimal ambient temperatures influence seasonal changes in body mass. Seasonal mass change is an important fitness correlate of large herbivores and affects reproductive success of female moose. Using GPS-collared adult female moose from two populations in southern Norway we quantified individual differences in seasonal activity budget and resource selection patterns as a function of seasonal temperatures thought to induce heat stress in moose. Individual body mass was recorded in early and late winter, and autumn to calculate seasonal mass changes (n = 52 over winter, n = 47 over summer). We found large individual differences in temperature-dependent resource selection patterns as well as within and between season variability in thermoregulatory strategies. As expected, individuals using an optimal strategy, selecting young successional forest (foraging habitat) at low ambient temperatures and mature coniferous forest (thermal shelter) during thermally stressful conditions, lost less mass in winter and gained more mass in summer. This study provides evidence that behavioural responses to temperature have important consequences for seasonal mass change in moose living in the south of their distribution in Norway, and may be a contributing factor to recently observed declines in moose demographic performance. Although the mechanisms that underlie the observed temperature mediated habitat-fitness relationship remain to be tested, physiological state and individual variation in thermal tolerance are likely contributory factors. Climate-related effects on animal

The Variability of Atmospheric Deuterium Brightness at Mars: Evidence for Seasonal Dependence

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Mayyasi, Majd; Clarke, John; Bhattacharyya, Dolon; Deighan, Justin; Jain, Sonal; Chaffin, Michael; Thiemann, Edward; Schneider, Nick; Jakosky, Bruce

2017-10-01

The enhanced ratio of deuterium to hydrogen on Mars has been widely interpreted as indicating the loss of a large column of water into space, and the hydrogen content of the upper atmosphere is now known to be highly variable. The variation in the properties of both deuterium and hydrogen in the upper atmosphere of Mars is indicative of the dynamical processes that produce these species and propagate them to altitudes where they can escape the planet. Understanding the seasonal variability of D is key to understanding the variability of the escape rate of water from Mars. Data from a 15 month observing campaign, made by the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution Imaging Ultraviolet Spectrograph high-resolution echelle channel, are used to determine the brightness of deuterium as observed at the limb of Mars. The D emission is highly variable, with a peak in brightness just after southern summer solstice. The trends of D brightness are examined against extrinsic as well as intrinsic sources. It is found that the fluctuations in deuterium brightness in the upper atmosphere of Mars (up to 400 km), corrected for periodic solar variations, vary on timescales that are similar to those of water vapor fluctuations lower in the atmosphere (20-80 km). The observed variability in deuterium may be attributed to seasonal factors such as regional dust storm activity and subsequent circulation lower in the atmosphere.

Variability of breath condensate pH may contribute to the better understanding of non-allergic seasonal respiratory diseases

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Kullmann, Tamás; Szipőcs, Annamária

2017-09-01

The seasonal variability of certain non-allergic respiratory diseases is not clearly understood. Analysis of the breath condensate, the liquid that can be collected by breathing into a cold tube, has been proposed to bring closer to the understanding of airway pathologies. It has been assumed, that (1) airway lining fluid was a stable body liquid and (2) the breath condensate samples were representative of the airway lining fluid. Research was focussed on the identification of biomarkers indicative of respiratory pathologies. Despite 30 years of extended investigations breath condensate analysis has not gained any clinical implementation so far. The pH of the condensate is the characteristic that can be determined with the highest reproducibility. The present paper shows, that contrary to the initial assumptions, breath condensate is not a representative of the airway lining fluid, and the airway lining fluid is not a stable body liquid. Condensate pH shows baseline variability and it is influenced by drinking and by the ambient temperature. The changes in condensate pH are linked to changes in airway lining fluid pH. The variability of airway lining fluid pH may explain seasonal incidence of certain non-allergic respiratory diseases such as the catching of a common cold and the increased incidence of COPD exacerbations and exercise-induced bronchoconstriction in cold periods.

Seasonal dynamics in wheel load-carrying capacity of a loam soil in the Swiss Plateau

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gut, S.; Chervet, A.; Stettler, Matthias

2015-01-01

on in situ measurements of h, measurements of precompression stress at various h and simulations of soil stress. In this work, we concentrated on prevention of subsoil compaction. Calculations were made for different tyres (standard and low-pressure top tyres) and for soil under different tillage......Subsoil compaction is a major problem in modern agriculture caused by the intensification of agricultural production and the increase in weight of agricultural machinery. Compaction in the subsoil is highly persistent and leads to deterioration of soil functions. Wheel load-carrying capacity (WLCC......) is defined as the maximum wheel load for a specific tyre and inflation pressure that does not result in soil stress in excess of soil strength. The soil strength and hence WLCC is strongly influenced by soil matric potential (h). The aim of this study was to estimate the seasonal dynamics in WLCC based...

Wetland dynamics influence mid-continent duck recruitment

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Anteau, Michael J.; Pearse, Aaron T.; Szymankski, Michael L.

2013-01-01

Recruitment is a key factor influencing duck population dynamics. Understanding what regulates recruitment of ducks is a prerequisite to informed habitat and harvest management. Quantity of May ponds (MP) has been linked to recruitment and population size (Kaminski and Gluesing 1987, Raveling and Heitmeyer 1989). However, wetland productivity (quality) is driven by inter-annual hydrological fluctuations. Periodic drying of wetlands due to wet-dry climate cycles releases nutrients and increases invertebrate populations when wet conditions return (Euliss et al. 1999). Wetlands may also become wet or dry within a breeding season. Accordingly, inter-annual and intra-seasonal hydrologic variation potentially influence duck recruitment. Here, we examined influences of wetland quantity, quality, and intra-seasonal dynamics on recruitment of ducks. We indexed duck recruitment by vulnerability-corrected age ratios (juveniles/adult females) for mid-continent Gadwall (Anas strepera). We chose Gadwall because the majority of the continental population breeds in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR), where annual estimates of MP exist since 1974. We indexed wetland quality by calculating change in MP (?MP) over the past two years (?MP = 0.6[MPt – MPt-1] + 0.4[MPt – MPt-2]). We indexed intra-seasonal change in number of ponds by dividing the PPR mean standardized precipitation index for July by MP (hereafter summer index). MP and ?MP were positively correlated (r = 0.65); therefore, we calculated residual ?MP (?MPr) with a simple linear regression using MP, creating orthogonal variables. Finally, we conducted a multiple regression to examine how MP, ?MPr, and summer index explained variation in recruitment of Gadwall from 1976–2010. Our model explained 67% of the variation in mid-continent Gadwall recruitment and all three hydrologic indices were positively correlated with recruitment (Figure 1). Type II semi-partial R2 estimates indicated that MP accounted for 41%, ?MPr

Seasonal dynamics of bacterial biomass and production in a coastal arctic ecosystem: Franklin Bay, western Canadian Arctic

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Garneau, Marie-Ã. Ve; Roy, SéBastien; Lovejoy, Connie; Gratton, Yves; Vincent, Warwick F.

2008-07-01

The Canadian Arctic Shelf Exchange Study (CASES) included the overwintering deployment of a research platform in Franklin Bay (70°N, 126°W) and provided a unique seasonal record of bacterial dynamics in a coastal region of the Arctic Ocean. Our objectives were (1) to relate seasonal bacterial abundance (BA) and production (BP) to physico-chemical characteristics and (2) to quantify the annual bacterial carbon flux. BA was estimated by epifluorescence microscopy and BP was estimated from 3H-leucine and 3H-thymidine assays. Mean BA values for the water column ranged from 1.0 (December) to 6.8 × 105 cells mL-1 (July). Integral BP varied from 1 (February) to 80 mg C m-2 d-1 (July). During winter-spring, BP was uncorrelated with chlorophyll a (Chl a), but these variables were significantly correlated during summer-autumn (rs = 0.68, p winter, late winter-late spring, and summer. A baseline level of BB and BP was maintained throughout late winter-late spring despite the persistent cold and darkness, with irregular fluctuations that may be related to hydrodynamic events. During this period, BP rates were correlated with colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) but not Chl a (rs BP.CDOM∣Chl a = 0.20, p < 0.05, N = 176). Annual BP was estimated as 6 g C m-2 a-1, implying a total BP of 4.8 × 1010 g C a-1 for the Franklin Bay region. These results show that bacterial processes continue throughout all seasons and make a large contribution to the total biological carbon flux in this coastal arctic ecosystem.

Spatial and temporal dynamics of drosophilid larval assemblages associated to fruits

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Renata Alves da Mata

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The study of organisms and their resources is critical to further understanding population dynamics in space and time. Although drosophilids have been widely used as biological models, their relationship with breeding and feeding sites has received little attention. Here, we investigate drosophilids breeding in fruits in the Brazilian Savanna, in two contrasting vegetation types, throughout 16 months. Specifically, larval assemblages were compared between savannas and forests, as well as between rainy and dry seasons. The relationships between resource availability and drosophilid abundance and richness were also tested. The community (4,022 drosophilids of 23 species and 2,496 fruits of 57 plant taxa varied widely in space and time. Drosophilid assemblages experienced a strong bottleneck during the dry season, decreasing to only 0.5% of the abundance of the rainy season. Additionally, savannas displayed lower richness and higher abundance than the forests, and were dominated by exotic species. Both differences in larval assemblages throughout the year and between savannas and gallery forests are consistent with those previously seen in adults. Although the causes of this dynamic are clearly multifactorial, resource availability (richness and abundance of rotten fruits was a good predictor of the fly assemblage structure.

Asymmetric Dynamic Attunement of Speech and Gestures in the Construction of Children's Understanding.

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De Jonge-Hoekstra, Lisette; Van der Steen, Steffie; Van Geert, Paul; Cox, Ralf F A

2016-01-01

As children learn they use their speech to express words and their hands to gesture. This study investigates the interplay between real-time gestures and speech as children construct cognitive understanding during a hands-on science task. 12 children (M = 6, F = 6) from Kindergarten (n = 5) and first grade (n = 7) participated in this study. Each verbal utterance and gesture during the task were coded, on a complexity scale derived from dynamic skill theory. To explore the interplay between speech and gestures, we applied a cross recurrence quantification analysis (CRQA) to the two coupled time series of the skill levels of verbalizations and gestures. The analysis focused on (1) the temporal relation between gestures and speech, (2) the relative strength and direction of the interaction between gestures and speech, (3) the relative strength and direction between gestures and speech for different levels of understanding, and (4) relations between CRQA measures and other child characteristics. The results show that older and younger children differ in the (temporal) asymmetry in the gestures-speech interaction. For younger children, the balance leans more toward gestures leading speech in time, while the balance leans more toward speech leading gestures for older children. Secondly, at the group level, speech attracts gestures in a more dynamically stable fashion than vice versa, and this asymmetry in gestures and speech extends to lower and higher understanding levels. Yet, for older children, the mutual coupling between gestures and speech is more dynamically stable regarding the higher understanding levels. Gestures and speech are more synchronized in time as children are older. A higher score on schools' language tests is related to speech attracting gestures more rigidly and more asymmetry between gestures and speech, only for the less difficult understanding levels. A higher score on math or past science tasks is related to less asymmetry between gestures and

Mapping of the seasonal dynamic properties of building walls in actual periodic conditions and effects produced by solar radiation incident on the outer and inner surfaces of the wall

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mazzeo, D.; Oliveti, G.; Arcuri, N.

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Dynamic thermal behaviour of building walls subjected to actual periodic loadings. • Dynamic parameters of wall in terms of energy and of heat flux are defined. • Different solar absorption coefficients and orientations of wall are considered. • On the internal surface is present or absent a shortwave radiant field. • Seasonal thermal characteristics for different plant operating regime are provided. - Abstract: In this work, the dynamic characteristics of the external walls of air-conditioned buildings subject to the joint action of periodic non-sinusoidal external and internal loadings are determined. The dynamic parameters used are the energy decrement factor, which is evaluated by means of the fluctuating heat flux in a semi-period exiting and entering the wall, the decrement factor of the maximum peak and minimum peak of the heat flux in a period and the relative time lags. The fluctuating heat flux in the wall in steady periodic regime conditions is determined with an analytical model obtained by resolving the equivalent electrical circuit. The preceding parameters are used for a study of the influence of solar radiation on the dynamic characteristics of the walls in summer and winter air-conditioning. Solar radiation is considered as operating on the external surface and on the internal surface due to the presence in the indoor environments of a shortwave radiant field. The absorbed solar heat flux by the external surface varies, modifying the solar absorption coefficient and wall orientation. Indoors, we considered a continuous operating regime of the plant and a regime with nocturnal attenuation. The results obtained, relating to 1152 different boundary conditions, were used for the construction of maps of dynamic characteristics, different on variation of the plant functioning regime and of the shortwave radiant load on the internal surface. The maps show the dependence of the decrement factors and of the time lags on variation of

The stochastic seasonal behavior of energy commodity convenience yields

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mirantes, Andrés García; Población, Javier; Serna, Gregorio

2013-01-01

This paper contributes to the commodity pricing literature by consistently modeling the convenience yield with its empirically observed properties. Specifically, in this paper, we show how a four-factor model for the stochastic behavior of commodity prices, with two long- and short-term factors and two additional seasonal factors, may accommodate some of the most important empirically observed characteristics of commodity convenience yields, such as the mean reversion and stochastic seasonality. Based on this evidence, a theoretical model is presented and estimated to characterize the commodity convenience yield dynamics that are consistent with previous findings. We also show that commodity price seasonality is better estimated through convenience yields than through futures prices. - Highlights: • Energy commodity convenience yields exhibit mean reversion and stochastic seasonality. • We present a model for convenience yields accounting for their observed characteristics. • Commodity price seasonality is better estimated through convenience yields

Dynamics in the microbiology of maize silage during whole-season storage

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Storm, Ida Marie Lindhardt Drejer; Kristensen, N.B.; Raun, B.M.L.

2010-01-01

Aims: To monitor seasonal variations in the microbiology of maize silage and to determine whether the risk of fungal spoilage varies during whole-year storage. Methods and Results: A continuous survey of 20 maize silage stacks was conducted over a period from three to 11 months after ensiling...... variations in the microbiology of maize silage over a whole storage season. The risk of fungal spoilage was highest 5-7 months after ensiling and lowest after 11 months. Significance and Impact of the Study: This information is valuable in the assessment of health risks connected with spoiled maize silage...

Seasonal variations of phytoplankton dynamics in Nunatsiavut fjords (Labrador, Canada) and their relationships with environmental conditions

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Simo-Matchim, Armelle-Galine; Gosselin, Michel; Blais, Marjolaine; Gratton, Yves; Tremblay, Jean-Éric

2016-04-01

We assessed phytoplankton dynamics and its environmental control in four Labrador fjords (Nachvak, Saglek, Okak, and Anaktalak) during summer, early fall and late fall. Primary production and chlorophyll a (chl a) biomass were measured at seven optical depths, including the depth of subsurface chl a maximum (SCM). Phytoplankton abundance, size structure and taxonomy were determined at the SCM. Principal component analysis and non-metric multidimensional scaling were used to analyze relationships between production, biomass and community composition in relation to environmental variables. We observed a marked seasonal variability, with significant differences in phytoplankton structure and function between summer and fall. Surprisingly, primary production and chl a biomass were not significantly different from one fjord to another. The highest values of primary production (1730 mg C m- 2 day- 1) and chl a biomass (96 mg chl a m- 2) were measured during the summer bloom, and those high values indicate that Labrador fjords are highly productive ecosystems. The summer community showed relatively high abundance of nanophytoplankton (2-20 μm) while the fall community was characterized by low primary production and chl a biomass as well as relatively high abundance of picophytoplankton (< 2 μm). The low value of carbon potentially exported out of the euphotic zone throughout the study (≤ 31% of total primary production) suggests that phytoplankton production was mainly grazed by microzooplankton rather than being exported to greater depths. We observed a mixed assemblage of diatoms and flagellates in summer, whereas the fall community was largely dominated by flagellates. Seasonal variations in phytoplankton dynamics were mainly controlled by the strength of the vertical stratification and by the large differences in day length due to the northerly location of Labrador fjords. This study documents for the very first time phytoplankton structure and function in

Decay Functions of Soil Moisture: Implications for Land Cover Controls on Actual Evapotranspiration During the Wet Season of a West-African Savanna

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Bassiouni, M.; Ceperley, N. C.; Mande, T.; Parlange, M. B.

2012-04-01

The West-African savanna experiences extreme seasonal climate. The role of vegetation and the impact of agriculture on the regional hydrology of these areas are not well understood. A better understanding of such phenomena is crucial, as water resources are becoming unstable and populations dependent on rain-fed agriculture are more vulnerable. This study examines soil moisture dynamics during the 2010 rainy season in the Singou River Basin, Burkina Faso. Volumetric soil water content and meteorological data are collected from seven stations of a wireless sensor network. This network covers representative types of land cover in the watershed including riverbank, wetland, open savanna, agricultural parkland, and forested upland savanna. Vegetation was also surveyed throughout the season. Here, we present parameterizations and exploratory analysis of soil moisture decay functions at each station considered. Results are compared to the seasonal evolution of soil moisture storage, potential evapotranspiration and vegetation density. Preliminary results suggest these soil moisture measurements may be essential to understanding actual evapotranspiration and the hydrological influence of the types of land cover in the watershed over time. These findings contribute to improved modeling of the ecohydrological behavior of the Singou River Basin and up-scaling of the sensor network data for regional water management purposes as part of an integrated research and development project, Info4Dourou.

The Canary Basin contribution to 26ºN AMOC Seasonality

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Pérez-Hernández, M. D.; McCarthy, G.; Smeed, D.; Hernandez-Guerra, A.; Vélez-Belchí, P.

2014-12-01

Recent studies have shown that the seasonal transport of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is linked with seasonal density changes in the eastern boundary of the Atlantic. As measured by the RAPID/MOCHA array, the AMOC has a seasonal peak-to-peak value of 6 Sv, with two relative maximums in July and October. The relative maximum in October coincides with the weakest transport of the upper mid-ocean transport (UMO), from the Bahamas to the eastern boundary, whose amplitude is 4 Sv. The seasonally averaged dynamic height indicates that the major source of seasonal variability in the UMO is due to the eastern boundary in fall. Data from the RAPID/MOCHA array at 26ºN is analyzed together with the data from a 15-year mooring between the African coast and the Canary Islands at 28ºN, in the Lanzarote Passage, the so-called Eastern Boundary Current Mooring (EBC4). The seasonal dynamics of the eastern boundary is analyzed: the recirculation of the Canary Current in fall through the Lanzarote Passage, the Rossby wave formation and the wind forcing. Significant correlations are found between the transport through the LP and the UMO. The transport of the North Atlantic Central Water (NACW) as measured by the EBC4 mooring has a correlation of 0.75 at zero lag with the UMO transport, and the transport of the Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) and Mediterranean Water (MW) are correlated 0.77/0.85 respectively, with a lag of one moth with the UMO. The results stress the importance of the eastern boundary in determining the seasonal variability of the AMOC, as measured by the RAPID/MOCHA array.

Seasonal dynamics of Pseudocalanus minutus elongatus and Acartia spp. in the southern Baltic Sea (Gdańsk Deep – numerical simulations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. Dzierzbicka-Głowacka

2006-01-01

Full Text Available A population dynamics model for copepods is presented, describing the seasonal dynamics of Pseudocalanus minutus elongatus and Acartia spp. in the southern Baltic Sea (Gdańsk Deep. The copepod model was coupled with a one-dimensional physical and biological upper layer model for nutrients (total inorganic nitrogen, phosphate, phytoplankton, microzooplankton, and an early juvenile of herring as a predator. In this model, mesozooplankton (herbivorous copepods has been introduced as an animal having definite patterns of growth in successive stages, reproduction and mortality. The populations are represented by 6 cohorts in different developmental stages, thus assuming that recruitment of the next generation occurs after a fixed period of adult life. The copepod model links trophic processes and population dynamics, and simulates individual growth within cohorts and the changes in biomass between cohorts. The simulations of annual cycles of copepods contain one complete generation of Pseudocalanus and two generations of Acartia in the whole column water, and indicate the importance of growth in the older stages of 6 cohorts of each species, to arrive at a total population biomass. The peaks of copepods' biomass are larger at the turn of June and July for Pseudocalanus and smaller in July for Acartia, lagging that of phytoplankton by ca. two mouths, due to the growth of cohorts in successive stages and egg production by females. The numerical results show that the investigated species could not be the main factor limiting the spring phytoplankton bloom in the Gdańsk Deep, because the initial development was slow for Acartia and faster for Pseudocalanus, but the main development formed after the bloom, in both cases. The phytoplankton bloom is very important in the diet of the adults of the copepods, but it is not particularly important for the youngest part of new generation (early nauplii. However, the simulated microzooplankton biomass was

The Impact of a Kinesthetic Approach to Teaching Earth's Seasons

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Slater, Stephanie; Morrow, C. A.

2010-01-01

The AAAS Benchmarks and NRC National Science Education Standards clearly prescribe that all American middle school students should understand that Earth's seasons are caused by variations in the amount of sunlight that hits Earth's surface due to tilt. An explanation for the cause of the seasons that is consistent with a scientifically accurate viewpoint would involve how the amount of sunlight reaching Earth's surface at different latitudes and is directly related to the planet's tilt. However, the most common alternative explanation given is the changing distance between the Sun and Earth. Previous research, as well as common experience, indicates that conventional instructional approaches on the concept of seasons are rarely sufficient in achieving scientifically accurate or durable conceptual change. Given the highly spatial nature of the concept, and the highly socially nature of human beings, some curriculum developers have turned to kinesthetic instructional approaches as a means to develop students' spatial reasoning and problem solving skills while confronting misconceptions and allowing students to socially construct scientifically accurate models of the seasons. We report results from a quantitative study on the impact on understanding of ninth grade students using kinesthetic approach to instruction for the traditionally challenging topic of Earth's seasons. The guiding research question was: To what extent does the kinesthetic astronomy instructional approach assist students in correcting misconceptions about the cause of the seasons? Using a single-group, multiple measures quasi-experimental study design, data was collected pre- and post-instruction using written, student-supplied-response assessments. Additionally, a third assessment was conducted 8 weeks after instruction in an attempt to measure durability. The results showed that statistically significant conceptual change occurred across three subtopics supporting seasons and were stable over 8

Seasonal forcing in a host-macroparasite system.

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Taylor, Rachel A; White, Andrew; Sherratt, Jonathan A

2015-01-21

Seasonal forcing represents a pervasive source of environmental variability in natural systems. Whilst it is reasonably well understood in interacting populations and host-microparasite systems, it has not been studied in detail for host-macroparasite systems. In this paper we analyse the effect of seasonal forcing in a general host-macroparasite system with explicit inclusion of the parasite larval stage and seasonal forcing applied to the birth rate of the host. We emphasise the importance of the period of the limit cycles in the unforced system on the resulting dynamics in the forced system. In particular, when subject to seasonal forcing host-macroparasite systems are capable of multi-year cycles, multiple solution behaviour, quasi-periodicity and chaos. The host-macroparasite systems show a larger potential for multiple solution behaviour and a wider range of periodic solutions compared to similar interacting population and microparasite systems. By examining the system for parameters that represent red grouse and the macroparasite nematode Trichostrongylus tenuis we highlight how seasonality could be an important factor in explaining the wide range of seemingly uncorrelated cycle periods observed in grouse abundance in England and Scotland. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Seasonal Climatologies and Variability of Eastern Tropical Pacific Surface Waters

OpenAIRE

Fiedler, Paul C.

1992-01-01

Interannual variability caused by the El Nino-Southern Oscillation in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean (ETP) is analogous to seasonal variability of comparable magnitude. Climatological spatial patterns and seasonal variability of physical variables that may affect the ETP ecosystem are presented and discussed. Surface temperature, surface salinity, mixed layer depth, thermocline depth, thermocline strength, and surface dynamic height were derived from bathythermograph, hydrocast, and...

Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe?

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Arnal, Louise; Cloke, Hannah L.; Stephens, Elisabeth; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Prudhomme, Christel; Neumann, Jessica; Krzeminski, Blazej; Pappenberger, Florian

2018-04-01

This paper considers whether there is any added value in using seasonal climate forecasts instead of historical meteorological observations for forecasting streamflow on seasonal timescales over Europe. A Europe-wide analysis of the skill of the newly operational EFAS (European Flood Awareness System) seasonal streamflow forecasts (produced by forcing the Lisflood model with the ECMWF System 4 seasonal climate forecasts), benchmarked against the ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) forecasting approach (produced by forcing the Lisflood model with historical meteorological observations), is undertaken. The results suggest that, on average, the System 4 seasonal climate forecasts improve the streamflow predictability over historical meteorological observations for the first month of lead time only (in terms of hindcast accuracy, sharpness and overall performance). However, the predictability varies in space and time and is greater in winter and autumn. Parts of Europe additionally exhibit a longer predictability, up to 7 months of lead time, for certain months within a season. In terms of hindcast reliability, the EFAS seasonal streamflow hindcasts are on average less skilful than the ESP for all lead times. The results also highlight the potential usefulness of the EFAS seasonal streamflow forecasts for decision-making (measured in terms of the hindcast discrimination for the lower and upper terciles of the simulated streamflow). Although the ESP is the most potentially useful forecasting approach in Europe, the EFAS seasonal streamflow forecasts appear more potentially useful than the ESP in some regions and for certain seasons, especially in winter for almost 40 % of Europe. Patterns in the EFAS seasonal streamflow hindcast skill are however not mirrored in the System 4 seasonal climate hindcasts, hinting at the need for a better understanding of the link between hydrological and meteorological variables on seasonal timescales, with the aim of improving climate

Seasonal and socio-economic variations in clinical and self-reported ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Seasonal and socio-economic variations in clinical and self-reported malaria in Accra, Ghana: Evidence from facility data and a community survey. ... Conclusions: Understanding these seasonal and geographic patterns have implications for both prevention and treatment of malaria-like morbidity in both children and adults ...

Effects of seasonal meteorological variables on E. coli persistence in livestock faeces and implications for environmental and human health.

Science.gov (United States)

Oliver, David M; Page, Trevor

2016-11-15

Agriculture contributes significant volumes of livestock faeces to land. Understanding how faecal microbes respond to shifts in meteorological patterns of contrasting seasons is important in order to gauge how environmental (and human health) risks may alter under a changing climate. The aim of this study was to: (i) quantify the temporal pattern of E. coli growth within dairy faeces post defecation; and (ii) derive E. coli seasonal population change profiles associated with contrasting environmental drivers. Evaluation of the die-off dynamics of E. coli revealed that a treatment mimicking drought and warming conditions significantly enhanced persistence relative to E. coli in faeces that were exposed to field conditions, and that this pattern was consistent across consecutive years. The internal temperature of faeces was important in driving the rate of change in the E. coli population in the immediate period post defecation, with most E. coli activity (as either die-off or growth) occurring at low dry matter content. This study highlighted that the use of seasonal E. coli persistence profiles should be approached with caution when modelling environmental and human health risks given the increased likelihood of atypical seasonal meteorological variables impacting on E. coli growth and die-off.

Understanding Action and Adventure Sports Participation-An Ecological Dynamics Perspective.

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Immonen, Tuomas; Brymer, Eric; Orth, Dominic; Davids, Keith; Feletti, Francesco; Liukkonen, Jarmo; Jaakkola, Timo

2017-12-01

Previous research has considered action and adventure sports using a variety of associated terms and definitions which has led to confusing discourse and contradictory research findings. Traditional narratives have typically considered participation exclusively as the pastime of young people with abnormal characteristics or personalities having unhealthy and pathological tendencies to take risks because of the need for thrill, excitement or an adrenaline 'rush'. Conversely, recent research has linked even the most extreme forms of action and adventure sports to positive physical and psychological health and well-being outcomes. Here, we argue that traditional frameworks have led to definitions, which, as currently used by researchers, ignore key elements constituting the essential merit of these sports. In this paper, we suggest that this lack of conceptual clarity in understanding cognitions, perception and action in action and adventure sports requires a comprehensive explanatory framework, ecological dynamics which considers person-environment interactions from a multidisciplinary perspective. Action and adventure sports can be fundamentally conceptualized as activities which flourish through creative exploration of novel movement experiences, continuously expanding and evolving beyond predetermined environmental, physical, psychological or sociocultural boundaries. The outcome is the emergence of a rich variety of participation styles and philosophical differences within and across activities. The purpose of this paper is twofold: (a) to point out some limitations of existing research on action and adventure sports; (b) based on key ideas from emerging research and an ecological dynamics approach, to propose a holistic multidisciplinary model for defining and understanding action and adventure sports that may better guide future research and practical implications.

An empirical system for probabilistic seasonal climate prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Eden, Jonathan; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Hawkins, Ed; Suckling, Emma

2016-04-01

Preparing for episodes with risks of anomalous weather a month to a year ahead is an important challenge for governments, non-governmental organisations, and private companies and is dependent on the availability of reliable forecasts. The majority of operational seasonal forecasts are made using process-based dynamical models, which are complex, computationally challenging and prone to biases. Empirical forecast approaches built on statistical models to represent physical processes offer an alternative to dynamical systems and can provide either a benchmark for comparison or independent supplementary forecasts. Here, we present a simple empirical system based on multiple linear regression for producing probabilistic forecasts of seasonal surface air temperature and precipitation across the globe. The global CO2-equivalent concentration is taken as the primary predictor; subsequent predictors, including large-scale modes of variability in the climate system and local-scale information, are selected on the basis of their physical relationship with the predictand. The focus given to the climate change signal as a source of skill and the probabilistic nature of the forecasts produced constitute a novel approach to global empirical prediction. Hindcasts for the period 1961-2013 are validated against observations using deterministic (correlation of seasonal means) and probabilistic (continuous rank probability skill scores) metrics. Good skill is found in many regions, particularly for surface air temperature and most notably in much of Europe during the spring and summer seasons. For precipitation, skill is generally limited to regions with known El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections. The system is used in a quasi-operational framework to generate empirical seasonal forecasts on a monthly basis.

Biometrics Technology: Understanding Dynamics Influencing Adoption for Control of Identification Deception within Nigeria

Science.gov (United States)

Nwatu, Gideon U.

2011-01-01

One of the objectives of any government is the establishment of an effective solution to significantly control crime. Identity fraud in Nigeria has generated global attention and negative publicity toward its citizens. The research problem addressed in this study was the lack of understanding of the dynamics that influenced the adoption and…

Seasonal and interseasonal dynamics of bluetongue virus infection of dairy cattle and Culicoides sonorensis midges in northern California--implications for virus overwintering in temperate zones.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christie E Mayo

Full Text Available Bluetongue virus (BTV is the cause of an economically important arboviral disease of domestic and wild ruminants. The occurrence of BTV infection of livestock is distinctly seasonal in temperate regions of the world, thus we determined the dynamics of BTV infection (using BTV-specific real time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction among sentinel cattle and vector Culicoides sonorensis (C. sonorensis midges on a dairy farm in northern California throughout both the seasonal and interseasonal (overwintering periods of BTV activity from August 2012 until March 2014. The data confirmed widespread infection of both sentinel cattle and vector midges during the August-November period of seasonal BTV transmission, however BTV infection of parous female midges captured in traps set during daylight hours also was detected in February of both 2013 and 2014, during the interseasonal period. The finding of BTV-infected vector midges during mid-winter suggests that BTV may overwinter in northern California by infection of long-lived female C. sonorensis midges that were infected during the prior seasonal period of virus transmission, and reemerged sporadically during the overwintering period; however the data do not definitively preclude other potential mechanisms of BTV overwintering that are also discussed.

Canary tomato export prices: comparison and relationships between daily seasonal patterns

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Martin-Rodriguez

2013-10-01

Full Text Available Statistical procedures are proposed to describe, compare and forecast the behaviour of seasonal variations in two daily price series of Canary tomato exported to German and British markets, respectively, over the last decade. These seasonal patterns are pseudo-periodic as the length of the seasonal period changes frequently in dependence of market conditions. Seasonal effect at a day in the harvesting period is defined as a spline function of the proportion of the length of such a period elapsed up to such a day. Then, seasonal patterns for the two series are compared in terms of the area between the corresponding spline functions. The ability of these models to capture the dynamic process of change in the seasonal pattern is useful to forecasting purpose. Furthermore, an analytical tool is also proposed to obtain forecasts of the seasonal pattern in one of these two series from the forecasts of the seasonal pattern in the other one. These procedures are useful for farmers in developing strategies related to the seasonal distribution of tomato production exported to each market.

Young children’s understanding of angles in a dynamic geometry environment

OpenAIRE

Kaur, Harpreet

2017-01-01

Angle is an important topic in geometry. It is a concept that children find challenging to learn, in part because of its multifaceted nature. The purpose of this study is to understand how children’s thinking about angles evolves as they participate in a classroom setting featuring the use of a dynamic geometry environment (DGE) in which the concept of angle as turn was privileged, a concept that does not require a quantitative dimension. Three research questions were proposed for the study, ...

Energy landscape scheme for an intuitive understanding of complex domain dynamics in ferroelectric thin films

Science.gov (United States)

Heon Kim, Tae; Yoon, Jong-Gul; Hyub Baek, Seung; Park, Woong-Kyu; Mo Yang, Sang; Yup Jang, Seung; Min, Taeyuun; Chung, Jin-Seok; Eom, Chang-Beom; Won Noh, Tae

2015-07-01

Fundamental understanding of domain dynamics in ferroic materials has been a longstanding issue because of its relevance to many systems and to the design of nanoscale domain-wall devices. Despite many theoretical and experimental studies, a full understanding of domain dynamics still remains incomplete, partly due to complex interactions between domain-walls and disorder. We report domain-shape-preserving deterministic domain-wall motion, which directly confirms microscopic return point memory, by observing domain-wall breathing motion in ferroelectric BiFeO3 thin film using stroboscopic piezoresponse force microscopy. Spatial energy landscape that provides new insights into domain dynamics is also mapped based on the breathing motion of domain walls. The evolution of complex domain structure can be understood by the process of occupying the lowest available energy states of polarization in the energy landscape which is determined by defect-induced internal fields. Our result highlights a pathway for the novel design of ferroelectric domain-wall devices through the engineering of energy landscape using defect-induced internal fields such as flexoelectric fields.

Energy landscape scheme for an intuitive understanding of complex domain dynamics in ferroelectric thin films.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Tae Heon; Yoon, Jong-Gul; Baek, Seung Hyub; Park, Woong-kyu; Yang, Sang Mo; Yup Jang, Seung; Min, Taeyuun; Chung, Jin-Seok; Eom, Chang-Beom; Noh, Tae Won

2015-07-01

Fundamental understanding of domain dynamics in ferroic materials has been a longstanding issue because of its relevance to many systems and to the design of nanoscale domain-wall devices. Despite many theoretical and experimental studies, a full understanding of domain dynamics still remains incomplete, partly due to complex interactions between domain-walls and disorder. We report domain-shape-preserving deterministic domain-wall motion, which directly confirms microscopic return point memory, by observing domain-wall breathing motion in ferroelectric BiFeO3 thin film using stroboscopic piezoresponse force microscopy. Spatial energy landscape that provides new insights into domain dynamics is also mapped based on the breathing motion of domain walls. The evolution of complex domain structure can be understood by the process of occupying the lowest available energy states of polarization in the energy landscape which is determined by defect-induced internal fields. Our result highlights a pathway for the novel design of ferroelectric domain-wall devices through the engineering of energy landscape using defect-induced internal fields such as flexoelectric fields.

Seasonal dynamics and functioning of the Sylt-Rømø Bight, northern Wadden Sea

Science.gov (United States)

de la Vega, Camille; Horn, Sabine; Baird, Dan; Hines, David; Borrett, Stuart; Jensen, Lasse Fast; Schwemmer, Philipp; Asmus, Ragnhild; Siebert, Ursula; Asmus, Harald

2018-04-01

The Wadden Sea undergoes large seasonal changes in species abundance and biomass comprising its complex food web. This study examined four carbon food web models of the Sylt-Rømø Bight, one for each season. Each flow model consisted of 66 compartments depicting the respective biomass and energy budget of each ecosystem component and the flows between them. Ecological network analysis (ENA), a set of algorithms to evaluate the functioning of ecological networks, was used to assess the seasonal variability in the system properties of the Sylt-Rømø Bight food webs. We used an uncertainty analysis to quantitatively evaluate the significance of inter-seasonal differences. Clear seasonal variation was observed in most of the whole system indicators such as the flow diversity, the effective link density and the relative redundancy which varied by 12.8%, 17.3% and 10.3% respectively between the highest in summer and the lowest during fall and winter, whereas the relevant ascendency ratio was the highest in winter during the least active months. Other indices such as the average mutual information index, which fluctuated between 1.73 in fall and 1.79 in spring, showed no significant variation between seasons. Results from ENA have great potential for ecosystem management, as it provides a holistic assessment of the functioning of ecosystems.

Extended season for northern butterflies.

Science.gov (United States)

Karlsson, Bengt

2014-07-01

Butterflies are like all insects in that they are temperature sensitive and a changing climate with higher temperatures might effect their phenology. Several studies have found support for earlier flight dates among the investigated species. A comparative study with data from a citizen science project, including 66 species of butterflies in Sweden, was undertaken, and the result confirms that most butterfly species now fly earlier during the season. This is especially evident for butterflies overwintering as adults or as pupae. However, the advancement in phenology is correlated with flight date, and some late season species show no advancement or have even postponed their flight dates and are now flying later in the season. The results also showed that latitude had a strong effect on the adult flight date, and most of the investigated species showed significantly later flights towards the north. Only some late flying species showed an opposite trend, flying earlier in the north. A majority of the investigated species in this study showed a general response to temperature and advanced their flight dates with warmer temperatures (on average they advanced their flight dates by 3.8 days/°C), although not all species showed this response. In essence, a climate with earlier springs and longer growing seasons seems not to change the appearance patterns in a one-way direction. We now see butterflies on the wings both earlier and later in the season and some consequences of these patterns are discussed. So far, studies have concentrated mostly on early season butterfly-plant interactions but also late season studies are needed for a better understanding of long-term population consequences.

Modeling systems-level dynamics: Understanding without mechanistic explanation in integrative systems biology.

Science.gov (United States)

MacLeod, Miles; Nersessian, Nancy J

2015-02-01

In this paper we draw upon rich ethnographic data of two systems biology labs to explore the roles of explanation and understanding in large-scale systems modeling. We illustrate practices that depart from the goal of dynamic mechanistic explanation for the sake of more limited modeling goals. These processes use abstract mathematical formulations of bio-molecular interactions and data fitting techniques which we call top-down abstraction to trade away accurate mechanistic accounts of large-scale systems for specific information about aspects of those systems. We characterize these practices as pragmatic responses to the constraints many modelers of large-scale systems face, which in turn generate more limited pragmatic non-mechanistic forms of understanding of systems. These forms aim at knowledge of how to predict system responses in order to manipulate and control some aspects of them. We propose that this analysis of understanding provides a way to interpret what many systems biologists are aiming for in practice when they talk about the objective of a "systems-level understanding." Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

What controls the atmospheric methane seasonal variability over India?

KAUST Repository

Guha, Tania; Tiwari, Yogesh K.; Valsala, Vinu; Lin, Xin; Ramonet, Michel; Mahajan, Anoop; Datye, Amey; Kumar, K. Ravi

2017-01-01

Atmospheric CH4 observations from two ground-based stations within Indian subcontinent, namely, Sinhagad (SNG) and Cape Rama station (CRI) showed a strong seasonality with a minima (∼1800 ± 20 ppb) during southwest monsoon (SWM; i.e. June–September, JJAS) and a maxima (2000 ± 30 ppb) during northeast monsoon (NEM i.e. December–February, DJF) with a peak-to-peak seasonality close to 200 ppb. The Indian summer (winter) monsoon is characterized with strong southwesterly (northeasterly) winds of oceanic origin at the surface level and strong easterly (westerly) jet streams aloft. The monsoon dynamics has pronounced impact on CH4 variability over India and is analyzed with winds, Lagrangian trajectories, and 3-dimentional distributions of CH4 simulated by a general circulation model. The model simulations suggest a consistent annual vertical structure (mean and sub-seasonal uncertainty) of CH4 over India with a stark contrast in concentration from summer to winter at surface levels (below 750 mb) in confirmation with what is identified by the ground-based observations. During SWM (NEM) the air with comparatively lower (higher) CH4 concentrations from southern (northern) hemisphere reduces the CH4 over India by 1814 ± 26 ppb (enhances by 1950 ± 51 ppb). The contribution of local fluxes to this seasonality appears to be albeit weak as the synthesized CH4 fluxes (from EDGAR dataset) of the Indian peninsula itself show a peak in summer and a dip in winter. Similar property of CH4 is also common to nearby oceanic region (i.e. over Arabian Sea, 1765 ± 10 ppb during summer) suggesting the role of monsoon dynamics as the controlling factor. Further the mixing and convection carries the CH4 to the upper atmosphere and advect inward or outward aloft according the seasonal monsoon dynamics.

What controls the atmospheric methane seasonal variability over India?

KAUST Repository

Guha, Tania

2017-11-28

Atmospheric CH4 observations from two ground-based stations within Indian subcontinent, namely, Sinhagad (SNG) and Cape Rama station (CRI) showed a strong seasonality with a minima (∼1800 ± 20 ppb) during southwest monsoon (SWM; i.e. June–September, JJAS) and a maxima (2000 ± 30 ppb) during northeast monsoon (NEM i.e. December–February, DJF) with a peak-to-peak seasonality close to 200 ppb. The Indian summer (winter) monsoon is characterized with strong southwesterly (northeasterly) winds of oceanic origin at the surface level and strong easterly (westerly) jet streams aloft. The monsoon dynamics has pronounced impact on CH4 variability over India and is analyzed with winds, Lagrangian trajectories, and 3-dimentional distributions of CH4 simulated by a general circulation model. The model simulations suggest a consistent annual vertical structure (mean and sub-seasonal uncertainty) of CH4 over India with a stark contrast in concentration from summer to winter at surface levels (below 750 mb) in confirmation with what is identified by the ground-based observations. During SWM (NEM) the air with comparatively lower (higher) CH4 concentrations from southern (northern) hemisphere reduces the CH4 over India by 1814 ± 26 ppb (enhances by 1950 ± 51 ppb). The contribution of local fluxes to this seasonality appears to be albeit weak as the synthesized CH4 fluxes (from EDGAR dataset) of the Indian peninsula itself show a peak in summer and a dip in winter. Similar property of CH4 is also common to nearby oceanic region (i.e. over Arabian Sea, 1765 ± 10 ppb during summer) suggesting the role of monsoon dynamics as the controlling factor. Further the mixing and convection carries the CH4 to the upper atmosphere and advect inward or outward aloft according the seasonal monsoon dynamics.

Computational Cellular Dynamics Based on the Chemical Master Equation: A Challenge for Understanding Complexity.

Science.gov (United States)

Liang, Jie; Qian, Hong

2010-01-01

Modern molecular biology has always been a great source of inspiration for computational science. Half a century ago, the challenge from understanding macromolecular dynamics has led the way for computations to be part of the tool set to study molecular biology. Twenty-five years ago, the demand from genome science has inspired an entire generation of computer scientists with an interest in discrete mathematics to join the field that is now called bioinformatics. In this paper, we shall lay out a new mathematical theory for dynamics of biochemical reaction systems in a small volume (i.e., mesoscopic) in terms of a stochastic, discrete-state continuous-time formulation, called the chemical master equation (CME). Similar to the wavefunction in quantum mechanics, the dynamically changing probability landscape associated with the state space provides a fundamental characterization of the biochemical reaction system. The stochastic trajectories of the dynamics are best known through the simulations using the Gillespie algorithm. In contrast to the Metropolis algorithm, this Monte Carlo sampling technique does not follow a process with detailed balance. We shall show several examples how CMEs are used to model cellular biochemical systems. We shall also illustrate the computational challenges involved: multiscale phenomena, the interplay between stochasticity and nonlinearity, and how macroscopic determinism arises from mesoscopic dynamics. We point out recent advances in computing solutions to the CME, including exact solution of the steady state landscape and stochastic differential equations that offer alternatives to the Gilespie algorithm. We argue that the CME is an ideal system from which one can learn to understand "complex behavior" and complexity theory, and from which important biological insight can be gained.

Seasonal dynamics and life histories of pelagic cladocerans (Crustacea; Cladocera in an acid boreal lake

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jens Petter NILSSEN

2011-02-01

Full Text Available In the surveyed anthropogenic acidified Lake Gjerstadvann with pH ≈ 5.2 situated in southern Norway, spatial and temporal distribution of three characteristic planktonic cladocerans inhabiting acidified boreal biotopes, Bosmina longispina, Holopedium gibberum, and Diaphanosoma brachyurum, were studied over a period of one year. The major pelagic predator was Eurasian perch, Perca fluviatilis. The local perch probably balanced the cladoceran community and facilitated co-existence of all three species of cladocerans by removing significant portions of B. longispina, which could also be the case in similar types of boreal lakes. Invertebrate predators such as the dipteran larvae Chaoborus flavicans and carnivorous copepods did not seem to influence the cladoceran community. B. longispina was perennial, whereas both H. gibberum and D. brachyurum were recorded only during the ice-free period. The life cycle of these free-living pelagic species ranged from 2-3 in D. brachyurum, 3 in H. gibberum to approximately 6 annual generations in B. longispina. Wintering took place as resting eggs in D. brachyurum and H. gibberum, while B. longispina produced resting eggs in addition to an active planktonic stay. The warm water tolerant D. brachyurum was mainly distributed above the thermocline, whereas H. gibberum also inhabited deeper strata, and B. longispina most vertical strata of the lake. Maximum seasonal clutch volume of B. longispina coincided in time with peak in food abundance and may be a useful parameter to identify planktonic food availability in such lakes. Knowledge of the autecology and life history of species is fundamental for understanding ecosystem stress, such as anthropogenic acidification and recovery through liming or by natural causes. Seasonal depth isoplots combined with life history studies of commonly co-occurring cladoceran species from natural acid and anthropogenic acidified lakes on the Northern Hemisphere seem to be uncommon

Seasonal genetic variation associated with population dynamics of a poecilogonous polychaete worm

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thonig, Anne; Banta, Gary Thomas; Hansen, Benni Winding

2017-01-01

Poecilogonous species show variation in developmental mode, with larvae that differ both morphologically and ecologically. The spionid polychaete Pygospio elegans shows variation in developmental mode not only between populations, but also seasonally within populations. We investigated...... differentiation at two of the sites. The seasonal genetic shift correlated with the appearance of new size cohorts in the populations. Additionally, we found that the genetic composition of reproductive individuals did not always reflect the genetic composition of the entire sample, indicating that variance...

Modelling inorganic nitrogen in runoff: Seasonal dynamics at four European catchments as simulated by the MAGIC model.

Science.gov (United States)

Oulehle, F; Cosby, B J; Austnes, K; Evans, C D; Hruška, J; Kopáček, J; Moldan, F; Wright, R F

2015-12-01

able to simulate NO3 leaching on a monthly as well as an annual basis, and thus to reproduce the seasonal and short-term variations in N dynamics. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sediment dynamics during the rainy season in tropical highland catchments of central Mexico using fallout radionuclides

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Evrard, Olivier; Ayrault, Sophie; Lefevre, Irene; Bonte, Philippe; Nemery, Julien; Gratiot, Nicolas; Duvert, Clement; Prat, Christian; Esteves, Michel; Poulenard, Jerome

2010-01-01

Tropical regions are affected by intense soil erosion associated with deforestation, overgrazing, and cropping intensification. This land degradation leads to important on-site (e.g., decrease in soil fertility) and off-site (e.g., reservoir siltation and water pollution) impacts. This study determined the mean soil particle and sediment residence times in soils and rivers of three sub-catchments (3-12 km 2 ) with contrasted land uses (i.e., cropland, forests, and rangelands) draining to a reservoir located in highlands of the trans-volcanic Mexican belt. Calculations were based on rainfall amount and river discharges as well as on fallout radionuclide measurements (Be-7, Cs-137, and Pb-210) conducted on rainfall precipitated samples, soil sampled in the catchments, and suspended sediment collected by automatic samplers in the river during most storms recorded throughout the 2009 rainy season. Calculations using a radionuclide two-box balance model showed that the mean residence time of particles in soils ranged between 5000 ± 1500 and 23, 300 ± 7000 years. In contrast, sediment residence time in rivers was much shorter, fluctuating between 50 ± 30 and 200 ± 70 days. The shortest mean residence times were measured in a hilly catchment dominated by cropland and rangelands, whereas they were the longest in an undulating catchment dominated by forests and cropland. Calculation of the Be-7/excess-Pb-210 in both rainfall and sediment allowed gaining insight on sediment dynamics throughout the rainy season. The first heavy storms of the year exported the bulk of the sediment stock accumulated in the river channel during the previous year. Then, during the rainy season, the two steeper catchments dominated by cropland and rangelands reacted strongly to rainfall. Sediment was indeed eroded and exported from both catchments during single heavy storms on several occasions in 2009. In contrast, the agro-forested catchment with gentler slopes exported sediment at a

NEW SEASON NEW HOPES: OFF-SEASON OPTIMISM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oguz Ersan

2017-12-01

Full Text Available While literature on the relation between on-field sports performance and stock returns is ample, there is very limited evidence on off-season stage. Constituting around 3 months, off-seasons do not only occupy a significant part of the year but also represent totally different characteristics than on-seasons. They lack the periodic, unambiguous news events in on-seasons (match results, instead they are associated with highly uncertain transfer news and rumors. We show that this distinction has several impacts on the stock market performances of soccer clubs. Most notably, off-seasons generate substantially higher (excess returns. After controlling for other variables, the estimated effect of off-season periods is as high as 38.75%, annually. In line with several seminal studies, we link this fact to increased optimism and betting behavior through uncertain periods; and periods prior to the start of a new calendar (in our case, new season. For all of the examined 7 clubs (3 from Italy and 4 from Turkey, mean excess returns over the market are positive (negative in off-seasons (on-seasons. On-seasons are associated with increased trading activity due to more frequent news. Stocks of Italian clubs are evidently more volatile through off-seasons while volatility results for the stocks of Turkish clubs are not consistent.

Coastal upwelling seasonality and variability of temperature and chlorophyll in a small coastal embayment

Science.gov (United States)

Walter, Ryan K.; Armenta, Kevin J.; Shearer, Brandon; Robbins, Ian; Steinbeck, John

2018-02-01

While the seasonality of wind-driven coastal upwelling in eastern boundary upwelling systems has long been established, many studies describe two distinct seasons (upwelling and non-upwelling), a generalized framework that does not capture details relevant to marine ecosystems. In this contribution, we present a more detailed description of the annual cycle and upwelling seasonality for an understudied location along the central California coast. Using both the mean monthly upwelling favorable wind stress and the monthly standard deviation, we define the following seasons (contiguous months) and a transitional period (non-contiguous months): "Winter Storms" season (Dec-Jan-Feb), "Upwelling Transition" period (Mar and Jun), "Peak Upwelling" season (Apr-May), "Upwelling Relaxation" season (Jul-Aug-Sep), and "Winter Transition" season (Oct-Nov). In order to describe the oceanic response to this upwelling wind seasonality, we take advantage of nearly a decade of full water-column measurements of temperature and chlorophyll made using an automated profiling system at the end of the California Polytechnic State University Pier in San Luis Obispo Bay, a small ( 2 km wide near study site) and shallow ( 10 m average bay depth) coastal embayment. Variability and average-year patterns are described inside the bay during the various upwelling seasons. Moreover, the role of the local coastline orientation and topography on bay dynamics is also assessed using long-term measurements collected outside of the bay. The formation of a seasonally variable upwelling shadow system and potential nearshore retention zone is discussed. The observations presented provide a framework on which to study interannual changes to the average-year seasonal cycle, assess the contribution of higher-frequency features to nearshore variability, and better predict dynamically and ecologically important events.

Influenza Seasonal Summary, 2014-2015 Season

Science.gov (United States)

2015-08-14

Influenza Seasonal Summarv 2014-2015 Season EpiData Center Department Communicable Disease Division NMCPHC-EDC-TR-394-2015 REPORT DOCUMENTATION... Influenza Seasonal Summary, 2014-2015 Season Sb. GRANT NUMBER $c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHORjS) Sd. PROJECT NUMBER Ashleigh K McCabe, Kristen R...SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 1<l. ABSTRACT This report summartzes influenza activity among Department of Navy (DON) and Depar1ment of Defense (DOD

Neuroendocrine regulation of gonadotropin secretion in seasonally breeding birds

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Takayoshi eUbuka

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Seasonally breeding birds detect environmental signals, such as light, temperature, food availability and presence of mates to time reproduction. Hypothalamic neurons integrate external and internal signals, and regulate reproduction by releasing neurohormones to the pituitary gland. The pituitary gland synthesizes and releases gonadotropins which in turn act on the gonads to stimulate gametogenesis and sex steroid secretion. Accordingly, how gonadotropin secretion is controlled by the hypothalamus is key to our understanding of the mechanisms of seasonal reproduction. A hypothalamic neuropeptide, gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH, activates reproduction by stimulating gonadotropin synthesis and release. Another hypothalamic neuropeptide, gonadotropin-inhibitory hormone (GnIH, inhibits gonadotropin synthesis and release directly by acting on the pituitary gland or indirectly by decreasing the activity of GnRH neurons. Therefore, the next step to understand seasonal reproduction is to investigate how the activities of GnRH and GnIH neurons in the hypothalamus and their receptors in the pituitary gland are regulated by external and internal signals. It is possible that locally-produced triiodothyronine resulting from the action of type 2 iodothyronine deiodinase on thyroxine stimulates the release of gonadotropins, perhaps by action on GnRH neurons. The function of GnRH neurons is also regulated by transcription of the GnRH gene. Melatonin, a nocturnal hormone, stimulates the synthesis and release of GnIH and GnIH may therefore regulate a daily rhythm of gonadotropin secretion. GnIH may also temporally suppress gonadotropin secretion when environmental conditions are unfavorable. Environmental and social milieus fluctuate seasonally in the wild. Accordingly, complex interactions of various neuronal and hormonal systems need to be considered if we are to understand the mechanisms underlying seasonal reproduction.

Seasonal dynamics of mobile carbohydrates and stem growth in Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) exposed to drought

Science.gov (United States)

Oberhuber, Walter; Kofler, Werner; Schuster, Roman; Swidrak, Irene; Gruber, Andreas

2014-05-01

Tree growth requires a continuous supply of carbon as structural material and as a source for metabolic energy. To detect whether intra-annual stem growth is related to changes in carbon allocation, we monitored seasonal dynamics of shoot and radial growth and concentrations of mobile carbohydrates (NSC) in above- and belowground organs of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.). The study area is situated within an inner Alpine dry environment (750 m asl, Tyrol, Austria), which is characterized by recurring drought periods at the start of the growing season in spring and limited water holding capacity of nutrient deficient, shallow stony soils. Shoot elongation was monitored on lateral branches in the canopy and stem radius changes were continuously followed by electronic band dendrometers. Daily radial stem growth and tree water deficit (ΔW) were extracted from dendrometer records. ΔW is regarded a reliable measure of drought stress in trees and develops when transpirational water loss from leaves exceeds water uptake by the root system. Daily radial stem growth and ΔW were related to environmental variables and determination of NSC was performed using specific enzymatic assays. Results revealed quite early culmination of aboveground growth rates in late April (shoot growth) and late May (radial growth), and increasing accumulation of NSC in coarse roots in June. NSC content in roots peaked at the end of July and thereafter decreased again, indicating a shift in carbon allocation after an early cessation of aboveground stem growth. ΔW was found to peak in late summer, when high temperatures prevailed. That maximum growth rates of aboveground organs peaked quite before precipitation increased during summer is related to the finding that ΔW and radial stem growth were more strongly controlled by the atmospheric environment, than by soil water content. We conclude that as a response to the seasonal development of ΔW a shift in carbon allocation from aboveground

A robust empirical seasonal prediction of winter NAO and surface climate.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, L; Ting, M; Kushner, P J

2017-03-21

A key determinant of winter weather and climate in Europe and North America is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the dominant mode of atmospheric variability in the Atlantic domain. Skilful seasonal forecasting of the surface climate in both Europe and North America is reflected largely in how accurately models can predict the NAO. Most dynamical models, however, have limited skill in seasonal forecasts of the winter NAO. A new empirical model is proposed for the seasonal forecast of the winter NAO that exhibits higher skill than current dynamical models. The empirical model provides robust and skilful prediction of the December-January-February (DJF) mean NAO index using a multiple linear regression (MLR) technique with autumn conditions of sea-ice concentration, stratospheric circulation, and sea-surface temperature. The predictability is, for the most part, derived from the relatively long persistence of sea ice in the autumn. The lower stratospheric circulation and sea-surface temperature appear to play more indirect roles through a series of feedbacks among systems driving NAO evolution. This MLR model also provides skilful seasonal outlooks of winter surface temperature and precipitation over many regions of Eurasia and eastern North America.

Microscopic dynamics in simple liquids: a clue to understanding the basic thermodynamics of the liquid state

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cabrillo, C; Bermejo, F J; Maira-Vidal, A; Fernandez-Perea, R; Bennington, S M; Martin, D

2004-01-01

The advent of inelastic x-ray scattering techniques has prompted a reawakened interest in the dynamics of simple liquids. Such studies are often carried out using simplified models to account for the stochastic dynamics that give rise to quasielastic scattering. The vibrational and diffusive dynamics of molten potassium are studied here by an experiment using neutron scattering and are shown to provide some clues to understand the basic thermodynamics of the liquid state. The findings reported here suggest ways in which the true complementarity of neutron and x-ray scattering may be profitably exploited

Cross-correlation and time history analysis of laser dynamic specklegram imaging for quality evaluation and assessment of certain seasonal fruits and vegetables

Science.gov (United States)

Samuel, Boni; Retheesh, R.; Zaheer Ansari, Md; Nampoori, V. P. N.; Radhakrishnan, P.; Mujeeb, A.

2017-10-01

Quality evaluation of fruits and vegetables is of great concern as there is a shortage of unadulterated items on the market. Even unadulterated fruits and vegetables, especially those with soft tissue, cannot be stored for longer times due to physical and chemical changes. Moreover, damage can occur during harvest and in the post-harvest period, while preserving or transporting the fruits and vegetables. This work describes the use of a laser dynamic speckle imaging technique as a powerful optoelectronic tool for the quality evaluation of certain seasonal fruits and vegetables in an Indian market. A simple optical configuration was designed for developing the dynamic speckle imagining system to record dynamic specklegrams of the specimens under different conditions. These images were analysed using a cross-correlation function and the temporal history of specklegrams. The technique can be effectively adapted to the industrial environment and would be beneficial for all stakeholders in the field.

Retrospective Analysis of Communication Events - Understanding the Dynamics of Collaborative Multi-Party Discourse

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cowell, Andrew J.; Haack, Jereme N.; McColgin, Dave W.

2006-06-08

This research is aimed at understanding the dynamics of collaborative multi-party discourse across multiple communication modalities. Before we can truly make sig-nificant strides in devising collaborative communication systems, there is a need to understand how typical users utilize com-putationally supported communications mechanisms such as email, instant mes-saging, video conferencing, chat rooms, etc., both singularly and in conjunction with traditional means of communication such as face-to-face meetings, telephone calls and postal mail. Attempting to un-derstand an individual’s communications profile with access to only a single modal-ity is challenging at best and often futile. Here, we discuss the development of RACE – Retrospective Analysis of Com-munications Events – a test-bed prototype to investigate issues relating to multi-modal multi-party discourse.

Modeling and Statistical Analysis of the Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Seasonal Influenza in Israel

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Katriel, Guy; Yaari, Rami; Roll, Uri; Stone, Lewi

2012-01-01

Background Seasonal influenza outbreaks are a serious burden for public health worldwide and cause morbidity to millions of people each year. In the temperate zone influenza is predominantly seasonal, with epidemics occurring every winter, but the severity of the outbreaks vary substantially between years. In this study we used a highly detailed database, which gave us both temporal and spatial information of influenza dynamics in Israel in the years 1998–2009. We use a discrete-time stochastic epidemic SIR model to find estimates and credible confidence intervals of key epidemiological parameters. Findings Despite the biological complexity of the disease we found that a simple SIR-type model can be fitted successfully to the seasonal influenza data. This was true at both the national levels and at the scale of single cities.The effective reproductive number Re varies between the different years both nationally and among Israeli cities. However, we did not find differences in Re between different Israeli cities within a year. R e was positively correlated to the strength of the spatial synchronization in Israel. For those years in which the disease was more “infectious”, then outbreaks in different cities tended to occur with smaller time lags. Our spatial analysis demonstrates that both the timing and the strength of the outbreak within a year are highly synchronized between the Israeli cities. We extend the spatial analysis to demonstrate the existence of high synchrony between Israeli and French influenza outbreaks. Conclusions The data analysis combined with mathematical modeling provided a better understanding of the spatio-temporal and synchronization dynamics of influenza in Israel and between Israel and France. Altogether, we show that despite major differences in demography and weather conditions intra-annual influenza epidemics are tightly synchronized in both their timing and magnitude, while they may vary greatly between years. The predominance of

Hydroclimatic influences on seasonal and spatial cholera transmission cycles: Implications for public health intervention in the Bengal Delta

Science.gov (United States)

Akanda, Ali Shafqat; Jutla, Antarpreet S.; Alam, Munirul; de Magny, Guillaume Constantin; Siddique, A. Kasem; Sack, R. Bradley; Huq, Anwar; Colwell, Rita R.; Islam, Shafiqul

2011-03-01

Cholera remains a major public health threat in many developing countries around the world. The striking seasonality and annual recurrence of this infectious disease in endemic areas remain of considerable interest to scientists and public health workers. Despite major advances in the ecological and microbiological understanding of Vibrio cholerae, the causative agent of the disease, the role of underlying large-scale hydroclimatic processes in propagating the disease for different seasons and spatial locations is not well understood. Here we show that the cholera outbreaks in the Bengal Delta region are propagated from the coastal to the inland areas and from spring to fall by two distinctly different transmission cycles, premonsoon and postmonsoon, influenced by coastal and terrestrial hydroclimatic processes, respectively. A coupled analysis of the regional hydroclimate and cholera incidence reveals a strong association of the space-time variability of incidence peaks with seasonal processes and extreme climatic events. We explain how the asymmetric seasonal hydroclimatology affects regional cholera dynamics by providing a coastal growth environment for bacteria in spring, while propagating the disease to fall by monsoon flooding. Our findings may serve as the basis for "climate-informed" early warnings and for prompting effective means for intervention and preempting epidemic cholera outbreaks in vulnerable regions.

Forecasting infectious disease emergence subject to seasonal forcing.

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Miller, Paige B; O'Dea, Eamon B; Rohani, Pejman; Drake, John M

2017-09-06

Despite high vaccination coverage, many childhood infections pose a growing threat to human populations. Accurate disease forecasting would be of tremendous value to public health. Forecasting disease emergence using early warning signals (EWS) is possible in non-seasonal models of infectious diseases. Here, we assessed whether EWS also anticipate disease emergence in seasonal models. We simulated the dynamics of an immunizing infectious pathogen approaching the tipping point to disease endemicity. To explore the effect of seasonality on the reliability of early warning statistics, we varied the amplitude of fluctuations around the average transmission. We proposed and analyzed two new early warning signals based on the wavelet spectrum. We measured the reliability of the early warning signals depending on the strength of their trend preceding the tipping point and then calculated the Area Under the Curve (AUC) statistic. Early warning signals were reliable when disease transmission was subject to seasonal forcing. Wavelet-based early warning signals were as reliable as other conventional early warning signals. We found that removing seasonal trends, prior to analysis, did not improve early warning statistics uniformly. Early warning signals anticipate the onset of critical transitions for infectious diseases which are subject to seasonal forcing. Wavelet-based early warning statistics can also be used to forecast infectious disease.

Effects of Structural Transparency in System Dynamics Simulators on Performance and Understanding

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Birgit Kopainsky

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Prior exploration is an instructional strategy that has improved performance and understanding in system-dynamics-based simulators, but only to a limited degree. This study investigates whether model transparency, that is, showing users the internal structure of models, can extend the prior exploration strategy and improve learning even more. In an experimental study, participants in a web-based simulation learned about and managed a small developing nation. All participants were provided the prior exploration strategy but only half received prior exploration embedded in a structure-behavior diagram intended to make the underlying model’s structure more transparent. Participants provided with the more transparent strategy demonstrated better understanding of the underlying model. Their performance, however, was the equivalent to those in the less transparent condition. Combined with previous studies, our results suggest that while prior exploration is a beneficial strategy for both performance and understanding, making the model structure transparent with structure-behavior diagrams is more limited in its effect.

The collective construction of safety: a trade-off between "understanding" and "doing" in managing dynamic situations.

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Cuvelier, L; Falzon, P

2015-03-01

This exploratory research aims to understand how teams organize themselves and collectively manage risky dynamic situations. The objective is to assess the plausibility of a model of a collective trade-off between "understanding" and "doing". The empirical study, conducted in the pediatric anesthesia service of a French university hospital, was supported by a "high fidelity" simulation with six teams. Data on the teams' behavior and on the verbal communications were collected through video recordings. The results highlight three modes for management of dynamic situations (determined management, cautious management, and overwhelmed management). These modes are related to the way in which teams manage their cognitive resources. More precisely, they are related to the teams' ability to collectively elaborate a trade-off between "understanding" and "doing". These results question existing perspectives on safety and suggest improvements in the design of crisis management training (concerning for example the recommendation of "calling for help"). Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

Innovative approaches for understanding seasonal influenza vaccine declination in healthcare personnel support development of new campaign strategies.

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Schult, Tamara M; Awosika, Ebi R; Hodgson, Michael J; Hirsch, Pamela R; Nichol, Kristin L; Dyrenforth, Sue R; Moore, Scott C

2012-09-01

The main objectives of our study were to explore reasons for seasonal influenza vaccine acceptance and declination in employees of a large integrated healthcare system and to identify underlying constructs that influence acceptance versus declination. Secondary objectives were to determine whether vaccine acceptance varied by hospital location and to identify facility-level measures that explained variability. A national health promotion survey of employees was conducted that included items on vaccination in the 2009-2010 influenza season. The survey was administered with two other institutional surveys in a stratified fashion: approximately 40% of participating employees were randomly assigned to complete the health promotion survey. National single-payer healthcare system with 152 hospitals. Employees of the healthcare system in 2010 who responded to the survey. Factor analysis was used to identify underlying constructs that influenced vaccine acceptance versus declination. Mean factor scores were examined in relation to demographic characteristics and occupation. Multilevel logistic regression models were used to determine whether vaccine acceptance varied by location and to identify facility-level measures that explained variability. Four factors were identified related to vaccine declination and were labeled as (1) "don't care," (2) "don't want," (3) "don't believe," and (4) "don't know." Significant differences in mean factor scores existed by demographic characteristics and occupation. Vaccine acceptance varied by location, and vaccination rates in the previous year were an important facility-level predictor. Results should guide interventions that tailor messages on the basis of particular reasons for declination. Occupation-specific and culturally appropriate messaging should be considered. Continued efforts will be taken to better understand how workplace context influences vaccine acceptance.

Asymmetric dynamic attunement of speech and gestures in the construction of children’s understanding

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Lisette eDe Jonge-Hoekstra

2016-03-01

Full Text Available As children learn they use their speech to express words and their hands to gesture. This study investigates the interplay between real-time gestures and speech as children construct cognitive understanding during a hands-on science task. 12 children (M = 6, F = 6 from Kindergarten (n = 5 and first grade (n = 7 participated in this study. Each verbal utterance and gesture during the task were coded, on a complexity scale derived from dynamic skill theory. To explore the interplay between speech and gestures, we applied a cross recurrence quantification analysis (CRQA to the two coupled time series of the skill levels of verbalizations and gestures. The analysis focused on 1 the temporal relation between gestures and speech, 2 the relative strength and direction of the interaction between gestures and speech, 3 the relative strength and direction between gestures and speech for different levels of understanding, and 4 relations between CRQA measures and other child characteristics. The results show that older and younger children differ in the (temporal asymmetry in the gestures-speech interaction. For younger children, the balance leans more towards gestures leading speech in time, while the balance leans more towards speech leading gestures for older children. Secondly, at the group level, speech attracts gestures in a more dynamically stable fashion than vice versa, and this asymmetry in gestures and speech extends to lower and higher understanding levels. Yet, for older children, the mutual coupling between gestures and speech is more dynamically stable regarding the higher understanding levels. Gestures and speech are more synchronized in time as children are older. A higher score on schools’ language tests is related to speech attracting gestures more rigidly and more asymmetry between gestures and speech, only for the less difficult understanding levels. A higher score on math or past science tasks is related to less asymmetry between

Seasonal Variability of Phytoplankton Population in the Brahmani ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Seasonal Variability of Phytoplankton Population in the Brahmani Estuary of Orissa, India. S Palleyi, RN Kar, CR Panda. Abstract. The dynamic relationship of water physico-chemical characteristics with phytoplankton has long been of great interest in both experimental ecology and environmental management. This study ...

Seasonal dynamics of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae in the northernmost state of Brazil: a likely port-of-entry for dengue virus 4

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Cláudia Torres Codeço

2009-07-01

Full Text Available Roraima is the northernmost state of Brazil, bordering both Venezuela and Guyana. Appropriate climate and vector conditions for dengue transmission together with its proximity to countries where all four dengue serotypes circulate make this state, particularly the capital Boa Vista, strategically important for dengue surveillance in Brazil. Nonetheless, few studies have addressed the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti in Boa Vista. In this study, we report temporal and spatial variations in Ae. aegypti population density using ovitraps in two highly populated neighbourhoods; Centro and Tancredo Neves. In three out of six surveys, Ae. aegypti was present in more than 80% of the sites visited. High presence levels of this mosquito suggest ubiquitous human exposure to the vector, at least during part of the year. The highest infestation rates occurred during the peak of the rainy seasons, but a large presence was also observed during the early dry season (although with more variation among years. Spatial distribution of positive houses changed from a sparse and local pattern to a very dense pattern during the dry-wet season transition. These results suggest that the risk of dengue transmission and the potential for the new serotype invasions are high for most of the year.

Seasonal cycles of isoprene concentrations in the Amazonian rainforest

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Trostdorf, C. R.; Gatti, L. V.; Yamazaki, A.; Potosnak, M. J.; Guenther, A.; Martins, W. C.; Munger, J. W.

2004-03-01

Tropical forests are an important global source of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and other atmospheric trace gases. The high biodiversity in tropical rainforests complicates the extrapolation of biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions from leaf-level measurements to landscape and regional or global scales. In Amazónia, a significant fraction of the carbon emitted from the biosphere to the atmosphere is emitted in the form of BVOCs, and the knowledge of these emissions is important to our understanding of tropical and global atmospheric chemistry and carbon cycling. As part of the Large scale Biosphere-atmosphere experiment in Amazónia (LBA). VOC concentrations were measured at two sites near Santarém, Para State, Brazil. The two sites are located in the National Forest of Tapajós, the first corresponding to primary forest and the second to a forest, that was selectively logged. The samples were collected simultaneously at heights of 65 and 55 m (20 and 10 m above forest canopy, respectively). The average isoprene mixing ratio was 2.2-2.5 ppb at the two sites and the standard deviations within a site ranged from 1 to 1.2 ppb. A strong seasonality of isoprene mixing ratio was observed and associated with the wet and dry seasons. The lowest mixing ratios were found during the transition between the wet to dry season, while at the start of the biomass burning season the mixing ratios increase. A qualitative analysis of a one dimensional model demonstrates that the seasonal cycle in concentrations reflects changes in isoprene production by the ecosystem, not changes in boundary layer dynamics or chemistry. The magnitude of the cycle indicates that the physiological capacity of the ecosystem to emit isoprene may depend on water availability although phenological changes could also contribute to the observed variations. A simple 1-D model that assumes mean daytime isoprene fluxes of 1.5 mg m-2h-1 and 0.9 mg m-2h-1 scaled by an algorithm depending on

Understanding the HIV coreceptor switch from a dynamical perspective

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Kamp Christel

2009-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The entry of HIV into its target cells is facilitated by the prior binding to the cell surface molecule CD4 and a secondary coreceptor, mostly the chemokine receptors CCR5 or CXCR4. In early infection CCR5-using viruses (R5 viruses are mostly dominant while a receptor switch towards CXCR4 occurs in about 50% of the infected individuals (X4 viruses which is associated with a progression of the disease. There are many hypotheses regarding the underlying dynamics without yet a conclusive understanding. Results While it is difficult to isolate key factors in vivo we have developed a minimal in silico model based on the approaches of Nowak and May to investigate the conditions under which the receptor switch occurs. The model allows to investigate the evolution of viral strains within a probabilistic framework along the three stages of disease from primary and latent infection to the onset of AIDS with a a sudden increase in viral load which goes along with the impairment of the immune response. The model is specifically applied to investigate the evolution of the viral quasispecies in terms of R5 and X4 viruses which directly translates into the composition of viral load and consequently the question of the coreceptor switch. Conclusion The model can explain the coreceptor switch as a result of a dynamical change in the underlying environmental conditions in the host. The emergence of X4 strains does not necessarily result in the dominance of X4 viruses in viral load which is more likely to occur in the model after some time of chronic infection. A better understanding of the conditions leading to the coreceptor switch is especially of interest as CCR5 blockers have recently been licensed as drugs which suppress R5 viruses but do not seem to necessarily induce a coreceptor switch.

Seasonal albedo of an urban/rural landscape from satellite observations

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Brest, Christopher L.

1987-01-01

Using data from 27 calibrated Landsat observations of the Hartford, Connecticut area, the spatial distribution and seasonal variation of surface reflectance and albedo were examined. Mean values of visible reflectance, near-IR reflectance, and albedo are presented (for both snow-free and snow-cover observations) according to 14 land use/land cover categories. A diversity of albedo values was found to exist in this type of environment, associated with land cover. Many land-cover categories display a seasonal dependence, with intracategory seasonal differences being of comparable magnitude to intercategory differences. Key factors in determining albedo (and its seasonal dynamics) are the presence or absence of vegetation and the canopy structure. Snow-cover/snow-free differences range from a few percent (for urban land covers) to over 40 percent (for low-canopy vegetation).

Seasonal Dependence of Geomagnetic Active-Time Northern High-Latitude Upper Thermospheric Winds

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Dhadly, Manbharat S.; Emmert, John T.; Drob, Douglas P.; Conde, Mark G.; Doornbos, Eelco; Shepherd, Gordon G.; Makela, Jonathan J.; Wu, Qian; Nieciejewski, Richard J.; Ridley, Aaron J.

2018-01-01

This study is focused on improving the poorly understood seasonal dependence of northern high-latitude F region thermospheric winds under active geomagnetic conditions. The gaps in our understanding of the dynamic high-latitude thermosphere are largely due to the sparseness of thermospheric wind measurements. With current observational facilities, it is infeasible to construct a synoptic picture of thermospheric winds, but enough data with wide spatial and temporal coverage have accumulated to construct a meaningful statistical analysis. We use long-term data from eight ground-based and two space-based instruments to derive climatological wind patterns as a function of magnetic local time, magnetic latitude, and season. These diverse data sets possess different geometries and different spatial and solar activity coverage. The major challenge is to combine these disparate data sets into a coherent picture while overcoming the sampling limitations and biases among them. In our previous study (focused on quiet time winds), we found bias in the Gravity Field and Steady State Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE) cross-track winds. Here we empirically quantify the GOCE bias and use it as a correction profile for removing apparent bias before empirical wind formulation. The assimilated wind patterns exhibit all major characteristics of high-latitude neutral circulation. The latitudinal extent of duskside circulation expands almost 10∘ from winter to summer. The dawnside circulation subsides from winter to summer. Disturbance winds derived from geomagnetic active and quiet winds show strong seasonal and latitudinal variability. Comparisons between wind patterns derived here and Disturbance Wind Model (DWM07) (which have no seasonal dependence) suggest that DWM07 is skewed toward summertime conditions.

Seasonal soil moisture patterns in contrasting habitats in the Willamette Valley, Oregon

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Changing seasonal soil moisture regimes caused by global warming may alter plant community composition in sensitive habitats such as wetlands and oak savannas. To evaluate such changes, an understanding of typical seasonal soil moisture regimes is necessary. The primary objective...

Droughts in Amazonia: Spatiotemporal Variability, Teleconnections, and Seasonal Predictions

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Lima, Carlos H. R.; AghaKouchak, Amir

2017-12-01

Most Amazonia drought studies have focused on rainfall deficits and their impact on river discharges, while the analysis of other important driver variables, such as temperature and soil moisture, has attracted less attention. Here we try to better understand the spatiotemporal dynamics of Amazonia droughts and associated climate teleconnections as characterized by the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), which integrates information from rainfall deficit, temperature anomalies, and soil moisture capacity. The results reveal that Amazonia droughts are most related to one dominant pattern across the entire region, followed by two seesaw kind of patterns: north-south and east-west. The main two modes are correlated with sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic oceans. The teleconnections associated with global SST are then used to build a seasonal forecast model for PDSI over Amazonia based on predictors obtained from a sparse canonical correlation analysis approach. A unique feature of the presented drought prediction method is using only a few number of predictors to avoid excessive noise in the predictor space. Cross-validated results show correlations between observed and predicted spatial average PDSI up to 0.60 and 0.45 for lead times of 5 and 9 months, respectively. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study in the region that, based on cross-validation results, leads to appreciable forecast skills for lead times beyond 4 months. This is a step forward in better understanding the dynamics of Amazonia droughts and improving risk assessment and management, through improved drought forecasting.

Seasonal dynamics in photosynthesis of woody plants at the northern limit of Asian tropics: potential role of fog in maintaining tropical rainforests and agriculture in Southwest China.

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Zhang, Yong-Jiang; Holbrook, N Michele; Cao, Kun-Fang

2014-10-01

The lowland tropical rainforests in Xishuangbanna, Southwest (SW) China, mark the northern limit of Asian tropics. Fog has been hypothesized to play a role in maintaining rainforests and tropical crop production in this region, but the physiological mechanism has not been studied. The goals of this study were to characterize the seasonal dynamics in photosynthesis and to assess the potential for fog to mitigate chilling-induced photodamage for tropical trees and crops in Xishuangbanna. We measured seasonal dynamics in light-saturated net photosynthetic rate (Aa), stomatal conductance (gs), intercellular CO2 concentration, quantum yield of Photosystem II (Fv/Fm) and maximum P700 changes (Pm; indicates the amount of active PSI complex), as well as chilling resistance and fog (light/shading) effects on low temperature-induced decline in Fv/Fm and Pm for native tree and introduced lower latitude tree or woody shrub species grown in a tropical botanical garden. Despite significant decreases in Aa, gs, Pm and Fv/Fm, most species maintained considerably high Aa during the cool season (2.51-14.6 μmol m(-2) s(-1)). Shaded leaves exposed to seasonal low temperatures had higher Fv/Fm than sun-exposed leaves in the cool season. All species could tolerate 1.4 °C in the dark, whereas a combined treatment of low temperature and high light caused a distinctly faster decline in Pm and Fv/Fm compared with low temperature treatment alone. Because fog persistence avoids or shortens the duration of high light condition in the morning when the temperatures are still low, our results provide support for the hypothesis that fog reduces chilling damage to tropical plants in this region and thus plays a role in maintaining tropical rainforests and agriculture in SW China. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Timing of breeding and reproductive performance in murres and kittiwakes reflect mismatched seasonal prey dynamics

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Shultz, M.T.; Piatt, John F.; Harding, A.M.A.; Kettle, Arthur B.; van Pelt, Thomas I.

2009-01-01

Seabirds are thought to time breeding to match the seasonal peak of food availability with peak chick energetic demands, but warming ocean temperatures have altered the timing of spring events, creating the potential for mismatches. The resilience of seabird populations to climate change depends on their ability to anticipate changes in the timing and magnitude of peak food availability and 'fine-tune' efforts to match ('Anticipation Hypothesis'). The degree that inter-annual variation in seabird timing of breeding and reproductive performance represents anticipated food availability versus energetic constraints ('Constraint Hypothesis') is poorly understood. We examined the relative merits of the Constraint and Anticipation Hypotheses by testing 2 predictions of the Constraint Hypothesis: (1) seabird timing of breeding is related to food availability prior to egg laying rather than the date of peak food availability, (2) initial reproductive output (e.g. laying success, clutch size) is related to pre-lay food availability rather than anticipated chick-rearing food availability. We analyzed breeding biology data of common murres Uria aalge and black-legged kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla and 2 proxies of the seasonal dynamics of their food availability (near-shore forage fish abundance and sea-surface temperature) at 2 colonies in Lower Cook Inlet, Alaska, USA, from 1996 to 1999. Our results support the Constraint Hypothesis: (1) for both species, egg laying was later in years with warmer sea-surface temperature and lower food availability prior to egg laying, but was not related to the date of peak food availability, (2) pre-egg laying food availability explained variation in kittiwake laying success and clutch size. Murre reproductive success was best explained by food availability during chick rearing. ?? 2009 Inter-Research.

A global empirical system for probabilistic seasonal climate prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Eden, J. M.; van Oldenborgh, G. J.; Hawkins, E.; Suckling, E. B.

2015-12-01

Preparing for episodes with risks of anomalous weather a month to a year ahead is an important challenge for governments, non-governmental organisations, and private companies and is dependent on the availability of reliable forecasts. The majority of operational seasonal forecasts are made using process-based dynamical models, which are complex, computationally challenging and prone to biases. Empirical forecast approaches built on statistical models to represent physical processes offer an alternative to dynamical systems and can provide either a benchmark for comparison or independent supplementary forecasts. Here, we present a simple empirical system based on multiple linear regression for producing probabilistic forecasts of seasonal surface air temperature and precipitation across the globe. The global CO2-equivalent concentration is taken as the primary predictor; subsequent predictors, including large-scale modes of variability in the climate system and local-scale information, are selected on the basis of their physical relationship with the predictand. The focus given to the climate change signal as a source of skill and the probabilistic nature of the forecasts produced constitute a novel approach to global empirical prediction. Hindcasts for the period 1961-2013 are validated against observations using deterministic (correlation of seasonal means) and probabilistic (continuous rank probability skill scores) metrics. Good skill is found in many regions, particularly for surface air temperature and most notably in much of Europe during the spring and summer seasons. For precipitation, skill is generally limited to regions with known El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections. The system is used in a quasi-operational framework to generate empirical seasonal forecasts on a monthly basis.

Seasonal, spatial, and maternal effects on gut microbiome in wild red squirrels.

Science.gov (United States)

Ren, Tiantian; Boutin, Stan; Humphries, Murray M; Dantzer, Ben; Gorrell, Jamieson C; Coltman, David W; McAdam, Andrew G; Wu, Martin

2017-12-21

Our understanding of gut microbiota has been limited primarily to findings from human and laboratory animals, but what shapes the gut microbiota in nature remains largely unknown. To fill this gap, we conducted a comprehensive study of gut microbiota of a well-studied North American red squirrel (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus) population. Red squirrels are territorial, solitary, and live in a highly seasonal environment and therefore represent a very attractive system to study factors that drive the temporal and spatial dynamics of gut microbiota. For the first time, this study revealed significant spatial patterns of gut microbiota within a host population, suggesting limited dispersal could play a role in shaping and maintaining the structure of gut microbial communities. We also found a remarkable seasonal rhythm in red squirrel's gut microbial composition manifested by a tradeoff between relative abundance of two genera Oscillospira and Corpococcus and clearly associated with seasonal variation in diet availability. Our results show that in nature, environmental factors exert a much stronger influence on gut microbiota than host-associated factors including age and sex. Despite strong environmental effects, we found clear evidence of individuality and maternal effects, but host genetics did not seem to be a significant driver of the gut microbial communities in red squirrels. Taken together, the results of this study emphasize the importance of external ecological factors rather than host attributes in driving temporal and spatial patterns of gut microbiota in natural environment.

Seasonal dynamics of mobile carbon supply in Quercus aquifolioides at the upper elevational limit.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wan-Ze Zhu

Full Text Available Many studies have tried to explain the physiological mechanisms of the alpine treeline phenomenon, but the debate on the alpine treeline formation remains controversial due to opposite results from different studies. The present study explored the carbon-physiology of an alpine shrub species (Quercus aquifolioides grown at its upper elevational limit compared to lower elevations, to test whether the elevational limit of alpine shrubs (<3 m in height are determined by carbon limitation or growth limitation. We studied the seasonal variations in non-structural carbohydrate (NSC and its pool size in Q. aquifolioides grown at 3000 m, 3500 m, and at its elevational limit of 3950 m above sea level (a.s.l. on Zheduo Mt., SW China. The tissue NSC concentrations along the elevational gradient varied significantly with season, reflecting the season-dependent carbon balance. The NSC levels in tissues were lowest at the beginning of the growing season, indicating that plants used the winter reserve storage for re-growth in the early spring. During the growing season, plants grown at the elevational limit did not show lower NSC concentrations compared to plants at lower elevations, but during the winter season, storage tissues, especially roots, had significantly lower NSC concentrations in plants at the elevational limit compared to lower elevations. The present results suggest the significance of winter reserve in storage tissues, which may determine the winter survival and early-spring re-growth of Q. aquifolioides shrubs at high elevation, leading to the formation of the uppermost distribution limit. This result is consistent with a recent hypothesis for the alpine treeline formation.

Methanotrophic community dynamics in a seasonally anoxic fjord: Saanich Inlet, British Columbia

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Mónica Torres-Beltrán

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Marine oxygen minimum zones (OMZs play disproportionate roles in nutrient and climate active trace gas cycling including nitrous oxide and methane, in the ocean. OMZs are currently expanding due to climate change making it increasingly important to identify microbial controls on trace gas cycling at the individual, population and community levels. Here we present a two-year survey of the microbial community along seasonal redox gradients in Saanich Inlet focused on identifying microbial agents driving methane oxidation. Although methanotrophs were rare, we identified three uncultivated groups affiliated with particulate methane monooxygenase (pMMO encoding phylogenetic groups (OPU, and methanotrophic symbionts as primary drivers of methane oxidation in Saanich Inlet. Distribution and activity patterns for these three groups were consistent with niche partitioning that became increasingly resolved during water column stratification. Moreover co-occurrence analysis combined with multi-level indicator species analysis revealed significant correlations between operational taxonomic units affiliated with Methylophaga, Methylophilales, SAR324, Verrucomicrobia, and Planctomycetes with OPUs and methanotrophic symbiont groups. Taken together these observations shed new light on the composition, dynamics, and potential interspecific interactions of microbes associated with CH4 cycling in the Saanich Inlet water column, provide a baseline for comparison between coastal and open ocean OMZs and support the potential role of OPUs, and methanotrophic symbiont groups as a widely distributed pelagic sink for CH4 along continental margins.

Exploring children's seasonal play to promote active lifestyles in Auckland, New Zealand.

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Ergler, Christina R; Kearns, Robin; Witten, Karen

2016-09-01

Studies of seasonal barriers for outdoor activities seldom view families' play practices as grounded in the everyday experience of the natural elements. This paper brings 20 families' mundane outdoor play experiences in Auckland's temperate climate to the fore. Through drawings and interviews, families residing in both suburban detached houses and central city apartments revealed locally constituted beliefs about appropriate play spaces (e.g. garden, park). While the majority of participants retreated to indoor activities during winter, some children and their parents viewed the outdoors as the only opportunity for 'real fun'. We advocate the importance of a better understanding of children's seasonal outdoor play. In particular, we argue that in order to promote year-round healthy levels of outdoor activities it is necessary to understand variations in societal, neighbourhood and family values attributed to outdoor activities. Further, to develop a more nuanced understanding of the locational complexities of outdoor play it is important to understand the meanings of, and practices associated with, seasonal and weather conditions in different international locations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Understanding dynamic capabilities through knowledge management

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Anders Paarup

2006-01-01

In the paper eight knowledge management activities are identified; knowledge creation, acquisition, capture, assembly, sharing, integration, leverage and exploitation. These activities are assembled into the three dynamic capabilities of knowledge development, knowledge (re......)combination and knowledge use. The dynamic capabilities and the associated knowledge management activities create flows to and from the firm’s stock of knowledge and they support the creation and use of organizational capabilities....

Understanding the Response of Photosynthetic Metabolism in Tropical Forests to Seasonal Climate Variations. Final Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dye, Dennis [U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA (United States); Ivanov, Valeriy [Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States); Saleska, Scott [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States); Huete, Alfredo [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States); Univ. of Technology, Sydney NSW (Australia)

2017-03-31

This U.S-Brazil collaboration for GOAmazon has investigated a deceptively simple question: what controls the response of photosynthesis in Amazon tropical forests to seasonal variations in climate? In the past this question has been difficult to answer with modern earth system process models. We hypothesized that observed dry season increases in photosynthetic capacity are controlled by the phenology of leaf flush and litter fall, from which the seasonal pattern of LAI emerges. Our results confirm this hypothesis (Wu et al., 2016). Synthesis of data collected throughout the 3-year project period continues through December 31, 2017 under no-cost extensions granted to the project teams at University of Michigan and University of Arizona (Award 2). The USGS component (Award 1) ceased on the final date of the project performance period, December 31, 2016. This report summarizes the overall activities and achievements of the project, and constitutes the final project report for the USGS component. The University of Michigan will submit a separate final report that includes additional results and deliverables achieved during the period of their and the University of Arizona’s no-cost extension, which will end on December 31, 2017.

Comparison of temporal and spatial dynamics of seasonal H3N2, pandemic H1N1 and highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 virus infections in ferrets

NARCIS (Netherlands)

J.M.A. van den Brand (Judith); K.J. Stittelaar (Koert); G. van Amerongen (Geert); L.A. Reperant (Leslie); L. de Waal (Leon); A.D.M.E. Osterhaus (Albert); T. Kuiken (Thijs)

2012-01-01

textabstractHumans may be infected by different influenza A viruses-seasonal, pandemic, and zoonotic-which differ in presentation from mild upper respiratory tract disease to severe and sometimes fatal pneumonia with extra-respiratory spread. Differences in spatial and temporal dynamics of these

Modeling seasonal behavior changes and disease transmission with application to chronic wasting disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Oraby, Tamer; Vasilyeva, Olga; Krewski, Daniel; Lutscher, Frithjof

2014-01-07

Behavior and habitat of wildlife animals change seasonally according to environmental conditions. Mathematical models need to represent this seasonality to be able to make realistic predictions about the future of a population and the effectiveness of human interventions. Managing and modeling disease in wild animal populations requires particular care in that disease transmission dynamics is a critical consideration in the etiology of both human and animal diseases, with different transmission paradigms requiring different disease risk management strategies. Since transmission of infectious diseases among wildlife depends strongly on social behavior, mechanisms of disease transmission could also change seasonally. A specific consideration in this regard confronted by modellers is whether the contact rate between individuals is density-dependent or frequency-dependent. We argue that seasonal behavior changes could lead to a seasonal shift between density and frequency dependence. This hypothesis is explored in the case of chronic wasting disease (CWD), a fatal disease that affects deer, elk and moose in many areas of North America. Specifically, we introduce a strategic CWD risk model based on direct disease transmission that accounts for the seasonal change in the transmission dynamics and habitats occupied, guided by information derived from cervid ecology. The model is composed of summer and winter susceptible-infected (SI) equations, with frequency-dependent and density-dependent transmission dynamics, respectively. The model includes impulsive birth events with density-dependent birth rate. We determine the basic reproduction number as a weighted average of two seasonal reproduction numbers. We parameterize the model from data derived from the scientific literature on CWD and deer ecology, and conduct global and local sensitivity analyses of the basic reproduction number. We explore the effectiveness of different culling strategies for the management of CWD

Diagnosing the Atmospheric/Oceanic Phenomena Associated with the Onset, Demise and Mid-Summer Drought of the Rainy Season in Mesoamerica

Science.gov (United States)

Groenen, D.; Bourassa, M. A.

2017-12-01

The rainfall in Mesoamerica (Mexico and Central America) has influences from two bodies of water, interesting topography, and complex wind patterns, which complicates weather forecasting. Knowing the approximate onset and demise of the rainy season is critical for the optimal growth and development of key crops in this region such as coffee, bananas, rice, and maize. This study compares three methods to calculate the onset/demise dates of the individual years' rainy season, using area-averaged rainfall data (7-28 °N/77-109 °W) from two datasets. After these onset/demise dates are obtained using rainfall data, the atmospheric and oceanic phenomena associated with the timing is analyzed using MERRA-2 reanalysis data. The objective is to link the large-scale phenomena to the individual years' onset/demise dates, as well as link the weather phenomena to the interannual variability of the onset/demise dates. In addition, the broad scale rainy season will be connected with regional onset/demise dates on the scale of 400km. Linking the broad scale rainfall regimes to the regional regimes will allow a more cohesive view of the dynamics related to rainfall variability in the Mesoamerican region. A smoothing method will be used to analyze the timing and intensity of the mid-summer drought (MSD), a minimum in rainfall typically occurring during July and August. The goal of this research is to link the physical and dynamical mechanisms that cause the Mesoamerican rainy season and mid-summer drought (MSD) in order to better understand the predictability of Mesoamerican rainfall and ensure the health and safety of key crops.

The Impact of High-Turbidity Water's Seasonal and Decadal Variations on Offshore Phytoplankton and Nutrients Dynamics around The Changjiang Estuary

Science.gov (United States)

Ge, J.; Torres, R.; Chen, C.; Bellerby, R. G. J.

2017-12-01

The Changjiang Estuary is characterized as strong river discharge into the inner shelf of the East China Sea with abundant sediment load, producing significant high-turbidity water coverage from river mouth to deep region. The growth of offshore phytoplankton is dynamically controlled by river flushed low-salinity and high-turbidity water, and salter water from inner shelf of East China Sea. During last decade, the sediment and nutrients from the Changjiang River has significantly changed, which lead to the variation of offshore phytoplankton dynamics. The variations of sediment, nutrients, and their influenced phytoplankton has been simulated through a comprehensive modeling system, which integrated a multi-scale current-wave-sediment FVCOM model and generic marine biogeochemistry and ecosystem ERSEM model through The Framework for Aquatic Biogeochemical Models (FABM). This model system has successfully revealed the seasonal and decadal variations of sediment, nutrients transport around the inner shelf of the East China Sea. The spring and autumn peaks of phytoplankton growth were correctly captured by simulation. The modeling results, as well as MODIS and GOCI remote sensing, shows a strong sediment decreasing from northern to southern region, which creates different patterns of Chlorophyll-a distribution and seasonal variations. These results indicate the high-turbidity water in northern region strongly influenced the light attenuation in the water column and limits the phytoplankton growth in this relatively higher-nutrient area, especially in the wintertime. The relatively low-turbidity southern region has significant productivity of phytoplankton, even during low-temperature winter. The phytoplankton growth increased in the northern region from 2005 to 2010, with the increase of the nutrient load during this period. Then it became a decreasing trend after 2010.

What shakes the FX tree? Understanding currency dominance, dependence, and dynamics (Keynote Address)

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Neil F.; McDonald, Mark; Suleman, Omer; Williams, Stacy; Howison, Sam

2005-05-01

There is intense interest in understanding the stochastic and dynamical properties of the global Foreign Exchange (FX) market, whose daily transactions exceed one trillion US dollars. This is a formidable task since the FX market is characterized by a web of fluctuating exchange rates, with subtle inter-dependencies which may change in time. In practice, traders talk of particular currencies being 'in play' during a particular period of time -- yet there is no established machinery for detecting such important information. Here we apply the construction of Minimum Spanning Trees (MSTs) to the FX market, and show that the MST can capture important features of the global FX dynamics. Moreover, we show that the MST can help identify momentarily dominant and dependent currencies.

Understanding role of genome dynamics in host adaptation of gut commensal, L. reuteri

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shikha Sharma

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Lactobacillus reuteri is a gram-positive gut commensal and exhibits noteworthy adaptation to its vertebrate hosts. Host adaptation is often driven by inter-strain genome dynamics like expansion of insertion sequences that lead to acquisition and loss of gene(s and creation of large dynamic regions. In this regard we carried in-house genome sequencing of large number of L. reuteri strains origination from human, chicken, pig and rodents. We further next generation sequence data in understanding invasion and expansion of an IS element in shaping genome of strains belonging to human associated lineage. Finally, we share our experience in high-throughput genomic library preparation and generating high quality sequence data of a very low GC bacterium like L. reuteri.

Comparison of seasonal soil microbial process in snow-covered temperate ecosystems of northern China.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xinyue Zhang

Full Text Available More than half of the earth's terrestrial surface currently experiences seasonal snow cover and soil frost. Winter compositional and functional investigations in soil microbial community are frequently conducted in alpine tundra and boreal forest ecosystems. However, little information on winter microbial biogeochemistry is known from seasonally snow-covered temperate ecosystems. As decomposer microbes may differ in their ability/strategy to efficiently use soil organic carbon (SOC within different phases of the year, understanding seasonal microbial process will increase our knowledge of biogeochemical cycling from the aspect of decomposition rates and corresponding nutrient dynamics. In this study, we measured soil microbial biomass, community composition and potential SOC mineralization rates in winter and summer, from six temperate ecosystems in northern China. Our results showed a clear pattern of increased microbial biomass C to nitrogen (N ratio in most winter soils. Concurrently, a shift in soil microbial community composition occurred with higher fungal to bacterial biomass ratio and gram negative (G- to gram positive (G+ bacterial biomass ratio in winter than in summer. Furthermore, potential SOC mineralization rate was higher in winter than in summer. Our study demonstrated a distinct transition of microbial community structure and function from winter to summer in temperate snow-covered ecosystems. Microbial N immobilization in winter may not be the major contributor for plant growth in the following spring.

Dry-season retreat and dietary shift of the dart-poison frog Dendrobates tinctorius (Anura: Dendrobatidae)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Born, M.; Bongers, F.; Poelman, E.H.; Sterck, F.J.

2010-01-01

Dry-season retreat and dietary shift of the dart-poison frog Delldrobates tillCtOrillS (Anura: Dendrobatidae). Seasonal rainfall affects tropical forest dynamics and behavior of species that are part of these ecosystems. TIle positive correlation between amphibian ac tivity pattems and rainfall has

Understanding catchment dynamics through a Space-Society-Water trialectic

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Sutherland, Catherine; Jewitt, Graham; Risko, Susan; Hay, Ducan; Stuart-Hill, Sabine; Browne, Michelle

2017-04-01

Can healthy catchments be utilized to secure water for the benefit of society? This is a complex question as it requires an understanding of the connections and relations between biophysical, social, political, economic and governance dimensions over space and time in the catchment and must interrogate whether there is 'value' in investing in the catchment natural or ecological infrastructure (EI), how this should be done, where the most valuable EI is located, and whether an investment in EI will generate co-benefits socially, environmentally and economically. Here, we adopt a social ecological relations rather than systems approach to explore these interactions through development of a space-society-water trialectic. Trialectic thinking is challenging as it requires new epistemologies and it challenges conventional modes of thought. It is not ordered or fixed, but rather is constantly evolving, revealing the dynamic relations between the elements under exploration. The construction of knowledge, through detailed scientific research and social learning, which contributes to the understanding and achievement of sustainable water supply, water related resilient economic growth, greater social equity and justice in relation to water and the reduction of environmental risk is illustrated through research in the uMngeni Catchment, South Africa. Using four case studies as a basis, we construct the catchment level society-water-space trialectic as a way of connecting, assembling and comparing the understanding and knowledge that has been produced. The relations in the three elements of the trialectic are constructed through identifying, understanding and analysing the actors, discourses, knowledge, biophysical materialities, issues and spatial connections in the case studies. Together these relations, or multiple trajectories, are assembled to form the society-water-space trialectic, which illuminates the dominant relations in the catchment and hence reveal the leverage

Harvest Trails in Australia: Patterns of Seasonal Migration in the Fruit and Vegetable Industry

Science.gov (United States)

Hanson, Jayde; Bell, Martin

2007-01-01

Against a background of declining employment in agriculture, a mobile workforce plays a crucial role in meeting seasonal labour demand in Australia. The dynamics of this labour force have received surprisingly little attention. We situate seasonal migration within the rising diversity of present-day mobility, and capture images of its early…

Linking activity, composition and seasonal dynamics of atmospheric methane oxidizers in a meadow soil.

Science.gov (United States)

Shrestha, Pravin Malla; Kammann, Claudia; Lenhart, Katharina; Dam, Bomba; Liesack, Werner

2012-06-01

Microbial oxidation is the only biological sink for atmospheric methane. We assessed seasonal changes in atmospheric methane oxidation and the underlying methanotrophic communities in grassland near Giessen (Germany), along a soil moisture gradient. Soil samples were taken from the surface layer (0-10 cm) of three sites in August 2007, November 2007, February 2008 and May 2008. The sites showed seasonal differences in hydrological parameters. Net uptake rates varied seasonally between 0 and 70 μg CH(4) m(-2) h(-1). Greatest uptake rates coincided with lowest soil moisture in spring and summer. Over all sites and seasons, the methanotrophic communities were dominated by uncultivated methanotrophs. These formed a monophyletic cluster defined by the RA14, MHP and JR1 clades, referred to as upland soil cluster alphaproteobacteria (USCα)-like group. The copy numbers of pmoA genes ranged between 3.8 × 10(5)-1.9 × 10(6) copies g(-1) of soil. Temperature was positively correlated with CH(4) uptake rates (P50 vol% and primarily related to members of the MHP clade.

Dynamics of the seasonal airborne propagation of Staphylococcus aureus in academic dental clinics.

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Bernardo, Wagner Luiz de Carvalho; Silva, Jeferson Júnior da; Höfling, José Francisco; Rosa, Edvaldo Antônio Ribeiro; Boriollo, Marcelo Fabiano Gomes

2018-04-05

Staphylococcus aureus strains can be disseminated during dental treatments and occasionally lead to the contamination and infection of patients and dentists, which is an important public health problem. The dynamics of the airborne propagation and the genetic diversity of S. aureus isolated in an academic dental clinic environment were investigated using isoenzyme typing. Materials and MethodsThe isoenzymes of 44 previously reported isolates were obtained from fresh cultures and extracted using glass beads. Nine isoenzymes were investigated using multilocus enzyme electrophoresis (MLEE). The genetic diversity and relationship among the strains (electrophoretic type - ET) were determined using statistics previously described by Nei25 (1972) and the SAHN grouping method (UPGMA algorithm). Clonal pattern analyses indicated a high level of genetic polymorphism occurring among the 33 ETs, which were grouped into five taxa. Each taxon presented one or more clusters that were moderately related and that contained two or more identical/highly related isolates, revealing seasonal airborne propagation in these dental clinic environments. These data suggest the occurrence of active microevolutionary processes in S. aureus as well as the possibility of environmental propagation during a 14-month time span. Such findings are important to show that multiuser academic dental clinics can retain certain strains that are spreadable to different niches.

Rainforest-initiated wet season onset over the southern Amazon.

Science.gov (United States)

Wright, Jonathon S; Fu, Rong; Worden, John R; Chakraborty, Sudip; Clinton, Nicholas E; Risi, Camille; Sun, Ying; Yin, Lei

2017-08-08

Although it is well established that transpiration contributes much of the water for rainfall over Amazonia, it remains unclear whether transpiration helps to drive or merely responds to the seasonal cycle of rainfall. Here, we use multiple independent satellite datasets to show that rainforest transpiration enables an increase of shallow convection that moistens and destabilizes the atmosphere during the initial stages of the dry-to-wet season transition. This shallow convection moisture pump (SCMP) preconditions the atmosphere at the regional scale for a rapid increase in rain-bearing deep convection, which in turn drives moisture convergence and wet season onset 2-3 mo before the arrival of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Aerosols produced by late dry season biomass burning may alter the efficiency of the SCMP. Our results highlight the mechanisms by which interactions among land surface processes, atmospheric convection, and biomass burning may alter the timing of wet season onset and provide a mechanistic framework for understanding how deforestation extends the dry season and enhances regional vulnerability to drought.

Seasonality in the Austrian Economy: Common Seasonals and Forecasting

OpenAIRE

Kunst, Robert M.

1992-01-01

Abstract: Seasonal cointegration generalizes the idea of cointegration to processes with unit roots at frequencies different from 0. Here, also the dual notion of common trends, "common seasonals", is adopted for the seasonal case. Using a five-variable macroeconomic core system of the Austrian economy, it is demonstrated how common seasonals and seasonal cointegrating vectors look in practice. Statistical tests provide clear evidence on seasonal cointegration in the system. However, it is sh...

Understanding Conflict Dynamics: A Comparative Analysis of Ethno-Separatist Conflicts in India and the Philippines

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Reed, A.G.

2013-01-01

This thesis is a comparative analysis of three contemporary separatist conflicts in Asia: The Naga Insurgency, the Punjab Crisis and the Moro Rebellion. The objective of this thesis is the understanding of conflict dynamics: how and why conflicts escalate or de-escalate over time. Previous research

Biogeochemical processes and buffering capacity concurrently affect acidification in a seasonally hypoxic coastal marine basin

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Hagens, M.; Slomp, C. P.; Meysman, F. J. R.; Seitaj, D.; Harlay, J.; Borges, A. V.; Middelburg, J. J.

2015-03-01

Coastal areas are impacted by multiple natural and anthropogenic processes and experience stronger pH fluctuations than the open ocean. These variations can weaken or intensify the ocean acidification signal induced by increasing atmospheric pCO2. The development of eutrophication-induced hypoxia intensifies coastal acidification, since the CO2 produced during respiration decreases the buffering capacity in any hypoxic bottom water. To assess the combined ecosystem impacts of acidification and hypoxia, we quantified the seasonal variation in pH and oxygen dynamics in the water column of a seasonally stratified coastal basin (Lake Grevelingen, the Netherlands). Monthly water-column chemistry measurements were complemented with estimates of primary production and respiration using O2 light-dark incubations, in addition to sediment-water fluxes of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and total alkalinity (TA). The resulting data set was used to set up a proton budget on a seasonal scale. Temperature-induced seasonal stratification combined with a high community respiration was responsible for the depletion of oxygen in the bottom water in summer. The surface water showed strong seasonal variation in process rates (primary production, CO2 air-sea exchange), but relatively small seasonal pH fluctuations (0.46 units on the total hydrogen ion scale). In contrast, the bottom water showed less seasonality in biogeochemical rates (respiration, sediment-water exchange), but stronger pH fluctuations (0.60 units). This marked difference in pH dynamics could be attributed to a substantial reduction in the acid-base buffering capacity of the hypoxic bottom water in the summer period. Our results highlight the importance of acid-base buffering in the pH dynamics of coastal systems and illustrate the increasing vulnerability of hypoxic, CO2-rich waters to any acidifying process.

When the going gets tough: behavioural type-dependent space use in the sleepy lizard changes as the season dries.

Science.gov (United States)

Spiegel, Orr; Leu, Stephan T; Sih, Andrew; Godfrey, Stephanie S; Bull, C Michael

2015-11-22

Understanding space use remains a major challenge for animal ecology, with implications for species interactions, disease spread, and conservation. Behavioural type (BT) may shape the space use of individuals within animal populations. Bolder or more aggressive individuals tend to be more exploratory and disperse further. Yet, to date we have limited knowledge on how space use other than dispersal depends on BT. To address this question we studied BT-dependent space-use patterns of sleepy lizards (Tiliqua rugosa) in southern Australia. We combined high-resolution global positioning system (GPS) tracking of 72 free-ranging lizards with repeated behavioural assays, and with a survey of the spatial distributions of their food and refuge resources. Bayesian generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) showed that lizards responded to the spatial distribution of resources at the neighbourhood scale and to the intensity of space use by other conspecifics (showing apparent conspecific avoidance). BT (especially aggressiveness) affected space use by lizards and their response to ecological and social factors, in a seasonally dependent manner. Many of these effects and interactions were stronger later in the season when food became scarce and environmental conditions got tougher. For example, refuge and food availability became more important later in the season and unaggressive lizards were more responsive to these predictors. These findings highlight a commonly overlooked source of heterogeneity in animal space use and improve our mechanistic understanding of processes leading to behaviourally driven disease dynamics and social structure. © 2015 The Author(s).

Investigating the role of evergreen and deciduous forests in the increasing trend in atmospheric CO2 seasonal amplitude

Science.gov (United States)

Welp, L.; Calle, L.; Graven, H. D.; Poulter, B.

2017-12-01

The seasonal amplitude of Northern Hemisphere atmospheric CO2 concentrations has systematically increased over the last several decades, indicating that the timing and amplitude of net CO2 uptake and release by northern terrestrial ecosystems has changed substantially. Remote sensing, dynamic vegetation modeling, and in-situ studies have explored how changes in phenology, expansion of woody vegetation, and changes in species composition and disturbance regimes, among others, are driven by changes in climate and CO2. Despite these efforts, ecosystem models have not been able to reproduce observed atmospheric CO2 changes. Furthermore, the implications for the source/sink balance of northern ecosystems remains unclear. Changing proportions of evergreen and deciduous tree cover in response to climate change could be one of the key mechanisms that have given rise to amplified atmospheric CO2 seasonality. These two different plant functional types (PFTs) have different carbon uptake seasonal patterns and also different sensitivities to climate change, but are often lumped together as one forest type in global ecosystem models. We will demonstrate the potential that shifting distributions of evergreen and deciduous forests can have on the amplitude of atmospheric CO2. We will show phase differences in the net CO2 seasonal uptake using CO2 flux data from paired evergreen/deciduous eddy covariance towers. We will use simulations of evergreen and deciduous PFTs from the LPJ dynamic vegetation model to explore how climate change may influence the abundance and CO2 fluxes of each. Model results show that the area of deciduous forests is predicted to have increased, and the seasonal amplitude of CO2 fluxes has increased as well. The impact of surface flux seasonal variability on atmospheric CO2 amplitude is examined by transporting fluxes from each forest PFT through the TM3 transport model. The timing of the most intense CO2 uptake leads to an enhanced effect of deciduous

Potential for western US seasonal snowpack prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Kapnick, Sarah B.; Yang, Xiaosong; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Delworth, Thomas L.; Gudgel, Rich; Malyshev, Sergey; Milly, Paul C. D.; Shevliakova, Elena; Underwood, Seth; Margulis, Steven A.

2018-01-01

Western US snowpack—snow that accumulates on the ground in the mountains—plays a critical role in regional hydroclimate and water supply, with 80% of snowmelt runoff being used for agriculture. While climate projections provide estimates of snowpack loss by the end of th ecentury and weather forecasts provide predictions of weather conditions out to 2 weeks, less progress has been made for snow predictions at seasonal timescales (months to 2 years), crucial for regional agricultural decisions (e.g., plant choice and quantity). Seasonal predictions with climate models first took the form of El Niño predictions 3 decades ago, with hydroclimate predictions emerging more recently. While the field has been focused on single-season predictions (3 months or less), we are now poised to advance our predictions beyond this timeframe. Utilizing observations, climate indices, and a suite of global climate models, we demonstrate the feasibility of seasonal snowpack predictions and quantify the limits of predictive skill 8 month sin advance. This physically based dynamic system outperforms observation-based statistical predictions made on July 1 for March snowpack everywhere except the southern Sierra Nevada, a region where prediction skill is nonexistent for every predictor presently tested. Additionally, in the absence of externally forced negative trends in snowpack, narrow maritime mountain ranges with high hydroclimate variability pose a challenge for seasonal prediction in our present system; natural snowpack variability may inherently be unpredictable at this timescale. This work highlights present prediction system successes and gives cause for optimism for developing seasonal predictions for societal needs.

Contribution of local knowledge to understand socio-hydrological dynamics. Examples from a study in Senegal river valley

Science.gov (United States)

Bruckmann, Laurent

2017-04-01

In developing countries many watersheds are low monitored. However, rivers and its floodplains provides ecosystem services to societies, especially for agriculture, grazing and fishing. This uses of rivers and floodplains offer to communities an important local knowledge about hydrological dynamics. This knowledge can be useful to researchers studying ecological or hydrological processes. This presentation aims to discuss and present the interest of using qualitative data from surveys and interviews to understand relations between society and hydrology in floodplain from developing countries, but also to understand changes in hydrological dynamics. This communication is based on a PhD thesis held on from 2012 and 2016, that analyzes socio-ecological changes in the floodplain of the Senegal river floodplain following thirty years of transboundary water management. The results of this work along Senegal river valley suggest that the use of social data and qualitative study are beneficial in understanding the hydrological dynamics in two dimensions. First, it established the importance of perception of hydrological dynamics, particularly floods, on local water management and socio-agricultural trajectories. This perception of people is strictly derived from ecosystems services provided by river and its floodplain. Second, surveys have enlightened new questions concerning the hydrology of the river that are often cited by people, like a decrease of flood water fertility. This type of socio-hydrological study, combining hydrological and qualitative data, has great potential for guiding water management policies. Using local knowledge in their analyzes, researchers also legitimize river users, who are for the most part forgotten by water policies.

The economic-engineering of smart-meter-enabled dynamic water pricing

Science.gov (United States)

Rougé, Charles; Harou, Julien

2016-04-01

The introduction of smart metering is set to revolutionize in many ways how water utilities conduct their business and interact with customers. Among those is the possibility of changing water prices during the day or seasonally. This work presents the engineering and economic implications of dynamic pricing implemented at two distinct timescales, 1) a seasonal scarcity tariff aimed at reducing consumption during drier period or droughts, and 2) time-of-day tariffs aimed at reducing peak-hour water use. Sophisticated dynamic pricing schemes are hard to understand for many users, and this reduces their social acceptability because it gives the impression that they help the water utility charge more for water. Therefore, we focus on simple pricing mechanisms, and estimating their short- and long-term benefits for communication with regulators and consumers. Seasonal scarcity tariffs are designed by adjusting prices such that the increased expenditure is commensurate with economic gains in other uses such as the environment and recreation. These tariffs could promote efficient use of limited supplies during relatively dry periods. In the long term, consistently reducing water consumption when it is scarce delays the need to invest in new sources of supply meant only for dry periods (e.g. desalination) which can bring down supply costs in the long-term. Reducing peak-hour use through time-of-day tariffs in the short run decreases peak-hour energy consumption and delays maintenance by reducing the likelihood of pipe burst. In the long run it delays capacity expansion of the distribution network. We develop and demonstrate a simple economic model of water supply to a generic city to demonstrate these concepts. This simple model is applied to London's water supply to better understand the scale of potential price changes and savings given London's environmental flow demands.

Dynamics of the water circulations in the southern South China Sea and its seasonal transports

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Daryabor, Farshid; Ooi, See Hai Ooi; Samah, Azizan Abu

2016-01-01

-analysis data of the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation. It is found that the seasonal water circulations are mainly driven by the monsoonal wind stress and influenced by the water outflow/inflow and associated currents of the entire South China Sea. The intrusion of the strong current along the East Coast......A three-dimensional Regional Ocean Modeling System is used to study the seasonal water circulations and transports of the Southern South China Sea. The simulated seasonal water circulations and estimated transports show consistency with observations, e.g., satellite altimeter data set and re...... of Peninsular Malaysia and the eddies at different depths in all seasons are due to the conservation of the potential vorticity as the depth increases. Results show that the water circulation patterns in the northern part of the East Coast of Peninsular Malaysia are generally dominated by the geostrophic...

Gastrointestinal helminths may affect host susceptibility to anthrax through seasonal immune trade-offs.

Science.gov (United States)

Cizauskas, Carrie A; Turner, Wendy C; Wagner, Bettina; Küsters, Martina; Vance, Russell E; Getz, Wayne M

2014-11-12

, and that these trade-offs may render hosts less capable of concurrently mounting effective Th1-type immune responses against anthrax. This study is one of the first to examine laboratory-demonstrated Th1-Th2 trade-offs in a natural system. It provides evidence that seasonally bound pathogens may affect, through immunology, transmission dynamics of pathogens that might otherwise not be seasonally distributed. It suggests that, by manipulating the internal host ecosystem, GI parasites may influence the external ecosystem by affecting the dynamics of another environmentally transmitted pathogen.

Seasonality of Kawasaki Disease: A Global Perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Burns, Jane C.; Herzog, Lauren; Fabri, Olivia; Tremoulet, Adriana H.; Rodó, Xavier; Uehara, Ritei; Burgner, David; Bainto, Emelia; Pierce, David; Tyree, Mary; Cayan, Daniel

2013-01-01

Background Understanding global seasonal patterns of Kawasaki disease (KD) may provide insight into the etiology of this vasculitis that is now the most common cause of acquired heart disease in children in developed countries worldwide. Methods Data from 1970-2012 from 25 countries distributed over the globe were analyzed for seasonality. The number of KD cases from each location was normalized to minimize the influence of greater numbers from certain locations. The presence of seasonal variation of KD at the individual locations was evaluated using three different tests: time series modeling, spectral analysis, and a Monte Carlo technique. Results A defined seasonal structure emerged demonstrating broad coherence in fluctuations in KD cases across the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical latitudes. In the extra-tropical latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, KD case numbers were highest in January through March and approximately 40% higher than in the months of lowest case numbers from August through October. Datasets were much sparser in the tropics and the Southern Hemisphere extra-tropics and statistical significance of the seasonality tests was weak, but suggested a maximum in May through June, with approximately 30% higher number of cases than in the least active months of February, March and October. The seasonal pattern in the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics was consistent across the first and second halves of the sample period. Conclusion Using the first global KD time series, analysis of sites located in the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics revealed statistically significant and consistent seasonal fluctuations in KD case numbers with high numbers in winter and low numbers in late summer and fall. Neither the tropics nor the Southern Hemisphere extra-tropics registered a statistically significant aggregate seasonal cycle. These data suggest a seasonal exposure to a KD agent that operates over large geographic regions and is concentrated during winter

Effects of Seasonal Land Surface Conditions on Hydrometeorological Dynamics in South-western North America

Science.gov (United States)

2015-09-21

rain gauges to measure precipitation , and 1 internal mini-flume to measure runoff . 9 Fig. 8. Processed fluxes measured at the two eddy...SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: Arid and semiarid landscapes in regions with seasonal precipitation experience dramatic changes that alter land surface...semiarid landscapes in regions with seasonal precipitation experience dramatic changes that alter land surface conditions, including soil moisture

Seasonal dynamics of surface chlorophyll concentration and sea surface temperature, as indicator of hydrological structure of the ocean (by satellite data)

Science.gov (United States)

Shevyrnogov, Anatoly; Vysotskaya, Galina

Continuous monitoring of phytopigment concentrations and sea surface temperature in the ocean by space-borne methods makes possible to estimate ecological condition of biocenoses in critical areas. Unlike land vegetation, hydrological processes largely determine phytoplank-ton dynamics, which may be either recurrent or random. The types of chlorophyll concentration dynamics and sea surface temperature can manifest as zones quasistationary by seasonal dynamics, quasistationary areas (QSA). In the papers of the authors (A. Shevyrnogov, G. Vysotskaya, E. Shevyrnogov, A study of the stationary and the anomalous in the ocean surface chlorophyll distribution by satellite data. International Journal of Remote Sensing, Vol. 25, No.7-8, pp. 1383-1387, April 2004 & A. P. Shevyrnogov, G. S. Vysotskaya, J. I. Gitelson, Quasistationary areas of chlorophyll concentra-tion in the world ocean as observed satellite data Advances in Space Research, Volume 18, Issue 7, Pages 129-132, 1996) existence of zones, which are quasi-stationary with similar seasonal dynamics of chlorophyll concentration at surface layer of ocean, was shown. Results were obtained on the base of processing of time series of satellite images SeaWiFS. It was shown that fronts and frontal zones coincide with dividing lines between quasi-stationary are-as, especially in areas of large oceanic streams. To study the dynamics of the ocean for the period from 1985 through 2012 we used data on the temperature of the surface layer of the ocean and chlorophyll concentration (AVHRR, SeaWiFS and MODIS). Biota of surface oceanic layer is more stable in comparison with quickly changing surface tem-perature. It gives a possibility to circumvent influence of high-frequency component (for exam-ple, a diurnal cycle) in investigation of dynamics of spatial distribution of surface streams. In addition, an analyses of nonstable ocean productivity phenomena, stood out time series of satellite images, showed existence of areas with

Seasonally asymmetric enhancement of northern vegetation productivity

Science.gov (United States)

Park, T.; Myneni, R.

2017-12-01

Multiple evidences of widespread greening and increasing terrestrial carbon uptake have been documented. In particular, enhanced gross productivity of northern vegetation has been a critical role leading to observed carbon uptake trend. However, seasonal photosynthetic activity and its contribution to observed annual carbon uptake trend and interannual variability are not well understood. Here, we introduce a multiple-source of datasets including ground, atmospheric and satellite observations, and multiple process-based global vegetation models to understand how seasonal variation of land surface vegetation controls a large-scale carbon exchange. Our analysis clearly shows a seasonally asymmetric enhancement of northern vegetation productivity in growing season during last decades. Particularly, increasing gross productivity in late spring and early summer is obvious and dominant driver explaining observed trend and variability. We observe more asymmetric productivity enhancement in warmer region and this spatially varying asymmetricity in northern vegetation are likely explained by canopy development rate, thermal and light availability. These results imply that continued warming may facilitate amplifying asymmetric vegetation activity and cause these trends to become more pervasive, in turn warming induced regime shift in northern land.

Phytoplankton dynamics in the Gulf of Aqaba (Eilat, Red Sea): A simulation study of mariculture effects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Laiolo, Leonardo; Barausse, Alberto; Dubinsky, Zvy; Palmeri, Luca; Goffredo, Stefano; Kamenir, Yury; Al-Najjar, Tariq; Iluz, David

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Fish farms in the Gulf of Aqaba strongly affect phytoplankton levels. • Integrating statistics and ecological models help understand phytoplankton dynamics. • Phytoplankton dynamics are driven by mariculture activity and natural forces. • Mariculture can alter typical phytoplankton dynamics and seasonal succession. - Abstract: The northern Gulf of Aqaba is an oligotrophic water body hosting valuable coral reefs. In the Gulf, phytoplankton dynamics are driven by an annual cycle of stratification and mixing. Superimposed on that fairly regular pattern was the establishment of a shallow-water fish-farm initiative that increased gradually until its activity was terminated in June 2008. Nutrient, water temperature, irradiation, phytoplankton data gathered in the area during the years 2007–2009, covering the peak of the fish-farm activity and its cessation, were analyzed by means of statistical analyses and ecological models of phytoplankton dynamics. Two datasets, one from an open water station and one next to the fish farms, were used. Results show that nutrient concentrations and, consequently, phytoplankton abundance and seasonal succession were radically altered by the pollution originating from the fish-farm in the sampling station closer to it, and also that the fish-farm might even have influenced the open water station

The American Dark Ages and the Terrorist Witch in Season of the Witch

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tom Vercruysse

2013-06-01

Full Text Available In this article we argue that Season of the Witch (Sena, 2011 is not to be analyzed according to its faithfulness to the known historical sources, but only by understanding medievalist codes, traditions and (filmic intertextuality. When read from this perspective, Season of the Witch tried to create new meaning by combining a dominant interpretation of Ingmar Bergman’s The Seventh Seal, European traditions on representing medieval witchcraft, contemporary perspectives on the crusades and Susan Aronstein’s concept of “Hollywood Arthuriana”. However, as this demands a lot of medievalist capital to fully understand, Season of the Witch in the end may have lost its coherence for the audience.

Real-Time G-Protein-Coupled Receptor Imaging to Understand and Quantify Receptor Dynamics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

María S. Aymerich

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Understanding the trafficking of G-protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs and their regulation by agonists and antagonists is fundamental to develop more effective drugs. Optical methods using fluorescent-tagged receptors and spinning disk confocal microscopy are useful tools to investigate membrane receptor dynamics in living cells. The aim of this study was to develop a method to characterize receptor dynamics using this system which offers the advantage of very fast image acquisition with minimal cell perturbation. However, in short-term assays photobleaching was still a problem. Thus, we developed a procedure to perform a photobleaching-corrected image analysis. A study of short-term dynamics of the long isoform of the dopamine type 2 receptor revealed an agonist-induced increase in the mobile fraction of receptors with a rate of movement of 0.08 μm/s For long-term assays, the ratio between the relative fluorescence intensity at the cell surface versus that in the intracellular compartment indicated that receptor internalization only occurred in cells co-expressing G protein-coupled receptor kinase 2. These results indicate that the lateral movement of receptors and receptor internalization are not directly coupled. Thus, we believe that live imaging of GPCRs using spinning disk confocal image analysis constitutes a powerful tool to study of receptor dynamics.

Seasonal isotope hydrology of a coffee agroforestry watershed in Costa Rica

Science.gov (United States)

Welsh Unwala, K.; Boll, J.; Roupsard, O.

2014-12-01

Improved information of seasonal variations in watershed hydrology in the tropics can strengthen models and understanding of hydrology of these areas. Seasonality in the tropics produces rainy seasons versus dry seasons, leading to different hydrologic and water quality processes throughout the year. We questioned whether stable isotopes in water can be used to trace the seasonality in this region, despite experiencing a "drier" season, such as in a Tropical Humid location. This study examines the fluctuations of stable isotope compositions (δ18O and δD) in water balance components in a small (deep groundwater system contributes significantly to baseflow, although a shallow, spring-driven system also contributes to stream water within the watershed. During storm events, precipitation contributes to stormflow in the short-term, confirming the role of superficial runoff. These results indicate that isotopes are helpful to partition the water balance even in a Tropical Humid situation where the rainfall seasonality is weak.

Linking activity, composition and seasonal dynamics of atmospheric methane oxidizers in a meadow soil

Science.gov (United States)

Shrestha, Pravin Malla; Kammann, Claudia; Lenhart, Katharina; Dam, Bomba; Liesack, Werner

2012-01-01

Microbial oxidation is the only biological sink for atmospheric methane. We assessed seasonal changes in atmospheric methane oxidation and the underlying methanotrophic communities in grassland near Giessen (Germany), along a soil moisture gradient. Soil samples were taken from the surface layer (0–10 cm) of three sites in August 2007, November 2007, February 2008 and May 2008. The sites showed seasonal differences in hydrological parameters. Net uptake rates varied seasonally between 0 and 70 μg CH4 m−2 h−1. Greatest uptake rates coincided with lowest soil moisture in spring and summer. Over all sites and seasons, the methanotrophic communities were dominated by uncultivated methanotrophs. These formed a monophyletic cluster defined by the RA14, MHP and JR1 clades, referred to as upland soil cluster alphaproteobacteria (USCα)-like group. The copy numbers of pmoA genes ranged between 3.8 × 105–1.9 × 106 copies g−1 of soil. Temperature was positively correlated with CH4 uptake rates (P50 vol% and primarily related to members of the MHP clade. PMID:22189499

Seasonal dynamics of dissolved, particulate and microbial components of a tidal saltmarsh-dominated estuary under contrasting levels of freshwater discharge

Science.gov (United States)

Bittar, Thais B.; Berger, Stella A.; Birsa, Laura M.; Walters, Tina L.; Thompson, Megan E.; Spencer, Robert G. M.; Mann, Elizabeth L.; Stubbins, Aron; Frischer, Marc E.; Brandes, Jay A.

2016-12-01

affect total abundance of phytoplankton (<52 μm) or chlorophyll-a concentrations, a proxy for phytoplankton biomass. Phytoplankton community dynamics were primarily seasonally-driven. Bacterioplankton abundance and community composition, based upon flow cytometry, were affected by discharge, possibly due to decreased salinity and/or increased inputs of terrigenous DOM. Seasonal patterns in inorganic nutrient, POC, PON and chlorophyll-a concentrations, and Secchi depth were not significantly influenced by the 2013 increase in discharge. For other components, most notably δ13C-DIC values, DOM and bacterioplankton, the influence of increased discharge in 2013 was superimposed upon their seasonal patterns. This study showed that in addition to tidal mixing and in situ saltmarsh and estuarine production and removal processes, the level of riverine freshwater discharge impacted the quantity and character of many water column components in this tidal saltmarsh ecosystem.

On jointly optimising the changes of seasonable goods and inventory replenishment

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Zhaolin; Tao, Feng; Sun, Daewon

2012-06-01

Retailers often need to replace soon-to-be-unseasonable products with new seasonable goods when the season changes. The trade-off for such activities involves choosing between the salvage loss of the unseasonable product and the profit of selling the seasonable product early. This article develops a periodic-review inventory model for planning the changes of seasonable goods with state-dependent demand and cost parameters. We show that the single-period optimal policy for product changes is a threshold policy based on the initial inventory of the unseasonable goods. The corresponding optimal inventory policy follows a Purchase-Keep-Dispose policy if the incumbent product is kept or a base-stock policy if the incumbent product is replaced. Numerically, we find that the structure of the multi-period optimal policy resembles that of the single-period model. We propose a heuristic to solve the multi-period model and demonstrate its effectiveness. Our research provides insights into dynamically managing seasonable goods.

Spatial and temporal dynamics of commercial reef-fish fisheries on the West Florida Shelf: Understanding drivers of fleet behavior and the implications for future management

Science.gov (United States)

Cockrell, M.; Murawski, S. A.; Sanchirico, J. N.; O'Farrell, S.; Strelcheck, A.

2016-02-01

Spatial and temporal patterns of fishing activity have historically been described over relatively coarse scales or with limited datasets. However, new and innovative approaches for fisheries management will require an understanding of both species population dynamics and fleet behavior at finer spatial and temporal resolution. In this study we describe the spatial and temporal patterns of commercial reef-fish fisheries on the West Florida Shelf (WFS) from 2006-14, using a combination of on-board observer, catch logbook, and vessel satellite tracking data. The satellite tracking data is both high resolution (ie, records from each vessel at least once every hour for the duration of a trip), and required of all federally-permitted reef fish vessels in the Gulf of Mexico, making this a uniquely rich and powerful dataset. Along with spatial and temporal fishery dynamics, we quantified concomitant patterns in fishery economics and catch metrics, such as total landings and catch composition. Fishery patterns were correlated to a number of variables across the vessel, trip, and whole fleet scales, including vessel size, distance from home port, number of days at sea, and days available to fish. Notably, changes in management structure during the years examined (eg, establishment of a seasonal closed area in 2009 and implementation of an individual fishing quota system for Grouper-Tilefish in 2010), as well as emergency spatial closures during the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in 2010, enabled us to examine the impacts of specific management frameworks on the WFS reef-fish fishery. This research highlights the need to better understand the biological, economic, and social impacts within fisheries when managing for conservation and fisheries sustainability. We discuss our results in the context of a changing policy and management landscape for marine and coastal resources in the Gulf of Mexico.

Characterization of the Dynamics of Climate Systems and Identification of Missing Mechanisms Impacting the Long Term Predictive Capabilities of Global Climate Models Utilizing Dynamical Systems Approaches to the Analysis of Observed and Modeled Climate

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bhatt, Uma S. [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences; Wackerbauer, Renate [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States). Dept. of Physics; Polyakov, Igor V. [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences; Newman, David E. [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States). Dept. of Physics; Sanchez, Raul E. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Fusion Energy Division; Univ. Carlos III de Madrid (Spain)

2015-11-13

The goal of this research was to apply fractional and non-linear analysis techniques in order to develop a more complete characterization of climate change and variability for the oceanic, sea ice and atmospheric components of the Earth System. This research applied two measures of dynamical characteristics of time series, the R/S method of calculating the Hurst exponent and Renyi entropy, to observational and modeled climate data in order to evaluate how well climate models capture the long-term dynamics evident in observations. Fractional diffusion analysis was applied to ARGO ocean buoy data to quantify ocean transport. Self organized maps were applied to North Pacific sea level pressure and analyzed in ways to improve seasonal predictability for Alaska fire weather. This body of research shows that these methods can be used to evaluate climate models and shed light on climate mechanisms (i.e., understanding why something happens). With further research, these methods show promise for improving seasonal to longer time scale forecasts of climate.

A study on the seasonal dynamics of Beypore estuary, Kerala coast

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

AnilKumar, N.; DineshKumar, P.K.

were found to be almost equal in four sections during premonsoon months. In July it was 9.08 m²/sec at river mouth and zero at the upper reaches of the estuary. In postmonsoon season the diffusivity values decreased upstream. Maximum value of flushing...

Exploring the Bullwhip Effect and Inventory Stability in a Seasonal Supply Chain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Francesco Costantino

2013-08-01

when the demand noise is low. In contrast, all the performance measures become less sensitive to the seasonality level when the noise is high. This performance indicates that using the ratios to measure seasonal supply chain dynamics is misleading, and that it is better to directly use the variance (without dividing by the demand variance as the estimates for the bullwhip effect and inventory performance. The results also show that the supply chain performances are highly sensitive to forecasting and safety stock parameters, regardless of the seasonality level. Furthermore, the impact of information sharing quantification shows that all the performance measures are improved regardless of demand seasonality. With information sharing, the bullwhip effect and inventory variance ratios are consistent with average fill rate results.

Seasonal weather-related decision making for cattle production in the Northern Great Plains

Science.gov (United States)

High inter-annual variability of seasonal weather patterns can greatly affect forage and therefore livestock production in the Northern Great Plains. This variability can make it difficult for ranchers to set yearly stocking rates, particularly in advance of the grazing season. To better understand ...

Understanding apparently non-exponential outbreaks Comment on "Mathematical models to characterize early epidemic growth: A review" by Gerardo Chowell et al.

Science.gov (United States)

Champredon, David; Earn, David J. D.

2016-09-01

Mechanistic mathematical modelling of the population dynamics of infectious diseases has advanced tremendously over the last few decades [1-6]. Transmission models have been applied to countless diseases of public health importance, including seasonal and pandemic influenza [7], childhood diseases such as measles [8,9] and whooping cough [10], vector transmitted diseases such as malaria [11] and dengue [12], and waterborne diseases such as cholera [13-15]. Much attention in recent years has been directed to emergent diseases such as SARS [16], new subtypes of influenza [17,18], Ebola [19,20], and Zika [21], for which an understanding of early outbreak dynamics is critical.

Changes in seasonal climate outpace compensatory density-dependence in eastern brook trout

Science.gov (United States)

Bassar, Ronald D.; Letcher, Benjamin H.; Nislow, Keith H.; Whiteley, Andrew R.

2016-01-01

Understanding how multiple extrinsic (density-independent) factors and intrinsic (density-dependent) mechanisms influence population dynamics has become increasingly urgent in the face of rapidly changing climates. It is particularly unclear how multiple extrinsic factors with contrasting effects among seasons are related to declines in population numbers and changes in mean body size and whether there is a strong role for density-dependence. The primary goal of this study was to identify the roles of seasonal variation in climate driven environmental direct effects (mean stream flow and temperature) versus density-dependence on population size and mean body size in eastern brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis). We use data from a 10-year capture-mark-recapture study of eastern brook trout in four streams in Western Massachusetts, USA to parameterize a discrete-time population projection model. The model integrates matrix modeling techniques used to characterize discrete population structures (age, habitat type and season) with integral projection models (IPMs) that characterize demographic rates as continuous functions of organismal traits (in this case body size). Using both stochastic and deterministic analyses we show that decreases in population size are due to changes in stream flow and temperature and that these changes are larger than what can be compensated for through density-dependent responses. We also show that the declines are due mostly to increasing mean stream temperatures decreasing the survival of the youngest age class. In contrast, increases in mean body size over the same period are the result of indirect changes in density with a lesser direct role of climate-driven environmental change.

Drivers of seasonality in Arctic carbon dioxide fluxes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mbufong, Herbert Njuabe

, while there were no discernable drivers of CO2 fluxes in Stordalen, growing season length showed significant controls on net ecosystem exchange (NEE) in Zackenberg and with gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Re) in Daring Lake. This is important considering the recent observations...... compensates for the shorter growing season due to increase snow cover and duration. Other drivers of growing season CO2 fluxes were mainly air temperature, growing degree days and photosynthetic active radiation in a high and a low Arctic tundra ecosystem. Upscaling Arctic tundra NEE based on an acquired...... understanding of the drivers of NEE during this research venture, shows an estimation of reasonable fluxes at three independent sites in low Arctic Alaska. However, this later project is still ongoing and its findings are only preliminary....

Seasonality of runoff and precipitation regimes along transects in Peru and Austria

OpenAIRE

Gaudry Maria M. Cárdenas; Gutknecht Dieter; Parajka Juraj; Perdigão Rui A.P.; Blöschl Günter

2017-01-01

The aim of this study is to understand the seasonalities of runoff and precipitation and their controls along two transects in Peru and one transect in Austria. The analysis is based on daily precipitation data at 111 and 61 stations in Peru and Austria, respectively, and daily discharge data at 51 and 110 stations. The maximum Pardé coefficient is used to quantify the strength of the seasonalities of monthly precipitation and runoff. Circular statistics are used to quantify the seasonalities...

Exploring the Spatial-Seasonal Dynamics of Water Quality, Submerged Aquatic Plants and Their Influencing Factors in Different Areas of a Lake

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kun Li

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The degradation of water quality in lakes and its negative effects on freshwater ecosystems have become a serious problem worldwide. Exploring the dynamics in the associated factors is essential for water pollution management and control. GIS interpolation, principal component analysis (PCA and multivariate statistical techniques were used to identify the main pollution sources in different areas of Honghu Lake. The results indicate that the spatial distribution of the concentrations of total nitrogen (TN, total phosphate (TP, ammonia nitrogen (NH4+–N, and permanganate index (CODMn have similar characteristics and that their values gradually increased from south to north during the three seasons in Honghu Lake. The major influencing factors of water quality varied across the different areas and seasons. The relatively high concentrations of TN and TP, which might limit the growth of submerged aquatic plants, were mainly caused by anthropogenic factors. Our work suggests that spatial analyses combined with PCA are useful for investigating the factors that influence water quality and submerged aquatic plant biomass in different areas of a lake. These findings provide sound information for the future water quality management of the lake or even the entire lake basin.

Seasonal dynamics in arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal colonization and spore numbers in the rhizosphere of dactylis glomerata l. and trifolium repens L

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xin, G.; Ye, S.; Wang, Y.; Wu, E.; Sugawara, K.

2012-01-01

The seasonal dynamics in the colonization of the rhizosphere of orchardgrass (Dactylis glomerata L.) and white clover (Trifolium repens L.) pastures by arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi and the production of spores in an artifical Japanese grassland was investigated over 12 months (between December 2001 and December 2002). The results showed that the AM fungal colonization fluctuated seasonally in the rhizosphere of both pastures. The total AM fungal colonization of the two pastures decreased during winter, then increased from March to June as the pastures grew, but slightly decreased again in July and August, and again followed an increase in September. There was significant difference of the colonization by arbuscules and vesicles between the two pastures ( p <0.05). Besides, the vesicular colonization of orchardgrass was higher than that of white clover, but the opposite trend was observed for arbuscular colonization. Similarly, the numbers of AM fungal spores in the pastures varied throughout the year, decreasing from spring to summer, then slowly increasing in late summer, reaching peak levels in winter. There is significant correlation between the frequency of spores in the rhizosphere soil and both soil temperature and pH. (author)

Seasonal dynamics of fecundity and recruitment of Temora longicornis in the Baltic Sea

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dutz, J; van Beusekom, JEE; Hinrichs, R

2012-01-01

), female prosome length (PL) and weight-specific egg production (spEPR) were compared with the seasonal variations in temperature, salinity, and food concentration and composition. Females reproduced year round with maxima of 9.8 to 12.3 eggs female−1 d−1 in spring and low to moderate egg production during...... the remaining seasons. PL was maximal during spring, and %FS, sfEPR and spEPR paralleled egg production. HS was low during winter and increased in spring. The statistical analyses showed that mean egg production correlated with both sfEPR and %FS. While %FS was significantly related to food concentration, sf...

Survival during the Breeding Season: Nest Stage, Parental Sex, and Season Advancement Affect Reed Warbler Survival.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kaja Wierucka

Full Text Available Avian annual survival has received much attention, yet little is known about seasonal patterns in survival, especially of migratory passerines. In order to evaluate survival rates and timing of mortality within the breeding season of adult reed warblers (Acrocephalus scirpaceus, mark-recapture data were collected in southwest Poland, between 2006 and 2012. A total of 612 individuals (304 females and 308 males were monitored throughout the entire breeding season, and their capture-recapture histories were used to model survival rates. Males showed higher survival during the breeding season (0.985, 95% CI: 0.941-0.996 than females (0.869, 95% CI: 0.727-0.937. Survival rates of females declined with the progression of the breeding season (from May to August, while males showed constant survival during this period. We also found a clear pattern within the female (but not male nesting cycle: survival was significantly lower during the laying, incubation, and nestling periods (0.934, 95% CI: 0.898-0.958, when birds spent much time on the nest, compared to the nest building and fledgling periods (1.000, 95% CI: 1.00-1.000, when we did not record any female mortality. These data (coupled with some direct evidence, like bird corpses or blood remains found next to/on the nest may suggest that the main cause of adult mortality was on-nest predation. The calculated survival rates for both sexes during the breeding season were high compared to annual rates reported for this species, suggesting that a majority of mortality occurs at other times of the year, during migration or wintering. These results have implications for understanding survival variation within the reproductive period as well as general trends of avian mortality.

Comparison of the seasonal variability in abundance of the copepod Pseudocalanus newmani in Lagoon Notoro-ko and a coastal area of the southwestern Okhotsk Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Kitamura, Mitsuaki; Nakagawa, Yoshizumi; Nishino, Yasuto; Segawa, Susumu; Shiomoto, Akihiro

2018-03-01

Replacement of the warm water of the Soya Warm Current (SWC) and the cold water of the East Sakhalin Current (ESC) occurs seasonally along the coast of the southwestern Okhotsk Sea, and sea ice covers the surface during winter. Pseudocalanus newmani is one of the dominant copepods in coastal waters of the northern hemisphere. To better understand the population dynamics of the copepod P. newmani in coastal areas of the southwestern Okhotsk Sea, this study compared the seasonal variation in P. newmani abundance in Lagoon Notoro-ko and a coastal area of the Okhotsk Sea with regard to developmental stage. We sampled P. newmani in the lagoon, including during the ice cover season, and the coastal waters. Pseudocalanus newmani was abundant at both sites in spring. During summer-fall, adults disappeared from the populations at both sites, whereas the early developmental stages were abundant and dominated the population. Total length of adult females decreased toward summer at both sites. Pseudocalanus newmani abundance in the lagoon increased in early winter, and larger females were found in the populations at both sites. These phenomena at both sites corresponded with seasonal variation in water temperature caused by seasonal water-mass replacement and sea ice.

Modelling seasonal meltwater forcing of the velocity of land-terminating margins of the Greenland Ice Sheet

Science.gov (United States)

Koziol, Conrad P.; Arnold, Neil

2018-03-01

Surface runoff at the margin of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) drains to the ice-sheet bed, leading to enhanced summer ice flow. Ice velocities show a pattern of early summer acceleration followed by mid-summer deceleration due to evolution of the subglacial hydrology system in response to meltwater forcing. Modelling the integrated hydrological-ice dynamics system to reproduce measured velocities at the ice margin remains a key challenge for validating the present understanding of the system and constraining the impact of increasing surface runoff rates on dynamic ice mass loss from the GrIS. Here we show that a multi-component model incorporating supraglacial, subglacial, and ice dynamic components applied to a land-terminating catchment in western Greenland produces modelled velocities which are in reasonable agreement with those observed in GPS records for three melt seasons of varying melt intensities. This provides numerical support for the hypothesis that the subglacial system develops analogously to alpine glaciers and supports recent model formulations capturing the transition between distributed and channelized states. The model shows the growth of efficient conduit-based drainage up-glacier from the ice sheet margin, which develops more extensively, and further inland, as melt intensity increases. This suggests current trends of decadal-timescale slowdown of ice velocities in the ablation zone may continue in the near future. The model results also show a strong scaling between average summer velocities and melt season intensity, particularly in the upper ablation area. Assuming winter velocities are not impacted by channelization, our model suggests an upper bound of a 25 % increase in annual surface velocities as surface melt increases to 4 × present levels.

Physiology in Medicine: Understanding dynamic alveolar physiology to minimize ventilator-induced lung injury.

Science.gov (United States)

Nieman, Gary F; Satalin, Josh; Kollisch-Singule, Michaela; Andrews, Penny; Aiash, Hani; Habashi, Nader M; Gatto, Louis A

2017-06-01

Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) remains a serious clinical problem with the main treatment being supportive in the form of mechanical ventilation. However, mechanical ventilation can be a double-edged sword: if set improperly, it can exacerbate the tissue damage caused by ARDS; this is known as ventilator-induced lung injury (VILI). To minimize VILI, we must understand the pathophysiologic mechanisms of tissue damage at the alveolar level. In this Physiology in Medicine paper, the dynamic physiology of alveolar inflation and deflation during mechanical ventilation will be reviewed. In addition, the pathophysiologic mechanisms of VILI will be reviewed, and this knowledge will be used to suggest an optimal mechanical breath profile (MB P : all airway pressures, volumes, flows, rates, and the duration that they are applied at both inspiration and expiration) necessary to minimize VILI. Our review suggests that the current protective ventilation strategy, known as the "open lung strategy," would be the optimal lung-protective approach. However, the viscoelastic behavior of dynamic alveolar inflation and deflation has not yet been incorporated into protective mechanical ventilation strategies. Using our knowledge of dynamic alveolar mechanics (i.e., the dynamic change in alveolar and alveolar duct size and shape during tidal ventilation) to modify the MB P so as to minimize VILI will reduce the morbidity and mortality associated with ARDS. Copyright © 2017 the American Physiological Society.

Seasonal thaw settlement at drained thermokarst lake basins, Arctic Alaska

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Lin; Schaefer, Kevin; Gusmeroli, Alessio; Grosse, Guido; Jones, Benjamin M.; Zhang, Tinjun; Parsekian, Andrew; Zebker, Howard

2014-01-01

Drained thermokarst lake basins (DTLBs) are ubiquitous landforms on Arctic tundra lowland. Their dynamic states are seldom investigated, despite their importance for landscape stability, hydrology, nutrient fluxes, and carbon cycling. Here we report results based on high-resolution Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) measurements using space-borne data for a study area located on the North Slope of Alaska near Prudhoe Bay, where we focus on the seasonal thaw settlement within DTLBs, averaged between 2006 and 2010. The majority (14) of the 18 DTLBs in the study area exhibited seasonal thaw settlement of 3–4 cm. However, four of the DTLBs examined exceeded 4 cm of thaw settlement, with one basin experiencing up to 12 cm. Combining the InSAR observations with the in situ active layer thickness measured using ground penetrating radar and mechanical probing, we calculated thaw strain, an index of thaw settlement strength along a transect across the basin that underwent large thaw settlement. We found thaw strains of 10–35% at the basin center, suggesting the seasonal melting of ground ice as a possible mechanism for the large settlement. These findings emphasize the dynamic nature of permafrost landforms, demonstrate the capability of the InSAR technique to remotely monitor surface deformation of individual DTLBs, and illustrate the combination of ground-based and remote sensing observations to estimate thaw strain. Our study highlights the need for better description of the spatial heterogeneity of landscape-scale processes for regional assessment of surface dynamics on Arctic coastal lowlands.

Quantifying seasonal velocity at Khumbu Glacier, Nepal

Science.gov (United States)

Miles, E.; Quincey, D. J.; Miles, K.; Hubbard, B. P.; Rowan, A. V.

2017-12-01

While the low-gradient debris-covered tongues of many Himalayan glaciers exhibit low surface velocities, quantifying ice flow and its variation through time remains a key challenge for studies aimed at determining the long-term evolution of these glaciers. Recent work has suggested that glaciers in the Everest region of Nepal may show seasonal variability in surface velocity, with ice flow peaking during the summer as monsoon precipitation provides hydrological inputs and thus drives changes in subglacial drainage efficiency. However, satellite and aerial observations of glacier velocity during the monsoon are greatly limited due to cloud cover. Those that do exist do not span the period over which the most dynamic changes occur, and consequently short-term (i.e. daily) changes in flow, as well as the evolution of ice dynamics through the monsoon period, remain poorly understood. In this study, we combine field and remote (satellite image) observations to create a multi-temporal, 3D synthesis of ice deformation rates at Khumbu Glacier, Nepal, focused on the 2017 monsoon period. We first determine net annual and seasonal surface displacements for the whole glacier based on Landsat-8 (OLI) panchromatic data (15m) processed with ImGRAFT. We integrate inclinometer observations from three boreholes drilled by the EverDrill project to determine cumulative deformation at depth, providing a 3D perspective and enabling us to assess the role of basal sliding at each site. We additionally analyze high-frequency on-glacier L1 GNSS data from three sites to characterize variability within surface deformation at sub-seasonal timescales. Finally, each dataset is validated against repeat-dGPS observations at gridded points in the vicinity of the boreholes and GNSS dataloggers. These datasets complement one another to infer thermal regime across the debris-covered ablation area of the glacier, and emphasize the seasonal and spatial variability of ice deformation for glaciers in High

Modeling seasonal measles transmission in China

Science.gov (United States)

Bai, Zhenguo; Liu, Dan

2015-08-01

A discrete-time deterministic measles model with periodic transmission rate is formulated and studied. The basic reproduction number R0 is defined and used as the threshold parameter in determining the dynamics of the model. It is shown that the disease will die out if R0 1 . Parameters in the model are estimated on the basis of demographic and epidemiological data. Numerical simulations are presented to describe the seasonal fluctuation of measles infection in China.

Understanding the biological underpinnings of ecohydrological processes

Science.gov (United States)

Huxman, T. E.; Scott, R. L.; Barron-Gafford, G. A.; Hamerlynck, E. P.; Jenerette, D.; Tissue, D. T.; Breshears, D. D.; Saleska, S. R.

2012-12-01

Climate change presents a challenge for predicting ecosystem response, as multiple factors drive both the physical and life processes happening on the land surface and their interactions result in a complex, evolving coupled system. For example, changes in surface temperature and precipitation influence near-surface hydrology through impacts on system energy balance, affecting a range of physical processes. These changes in the salient features of the environment affect biological processes and elicit responses along the hierarchy of life (biochemistry to community composition). Many of these structural or process changes can alter patterns of soil water-use and influence land surface characteristics that affect local climate. Of the many features that affect our ability to predict the future dynamics of ecosystems, it is this hierarchical response of life that creates substantial complexity. Advances in the ability to predict or understand aspects of demography help describe thresholds in coupled ecohydrological system. Disentangling the physical and biological features that underlie land surface dynamics following disturbance are allowing a better understanding of the partitioning of water in the time-course of recovery. Better predicting the timing of phenology and key seasonal events allow for a more accurate description of the full functional response of the land surface to climate. In addition, explicitly considering the hierarchical structural features of life are helping to describe complex time-dependent behavior in ecosystems. However, despite this progress, we have yet to build an ability to fully account for the generalization of the main features of living systems into models that can describe ecohydrological processes, especially acclimation, assembly and adaptation. This is unfortunate, given that many key ecosystem services are functions of these coupled co-evolutionary processes. To date, both the lack of controlled measurements and experimentation

Seasonal variation in the behaviour of a short-lived rodent.

Science.gov (United States)

Eccard, Jana A; Herde, Antje

2013-11-15

suggested by the POL theory, however, was not found. Nevertheless, correlations of traits suggest the existence of animal personalities. In conclusion, complex patterns of population dynamics, seasonal variation in life histories, and variability of behaviour due to asset-protection may cause complex seasonal behavioural dynamics in a population.

Estimating the Sensitivity of CLM-Crop to Plant Date and Growing Season Length

Science.gov (United States)

Drewniak, B. A.; Kotamarthi, V. R.

2012-12-01

The Community Land Model (CLM), the land component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), is designed to estimate the land surface response to climate through simulated vegetation phenology and soil carbon and nitrogen dynamics. Since human influences play a significant role shaping the land surface, the vegetation has been expanded to include agriculture (CLM-Crop) for three crop types: corn, soybean, and spring wheat. CLM-Crop parameters, which define crop phenology, are optimized against AmeriFlux observations of gross primary productivity, net ecosystem exchange, and stored biomass and carbon, for two sites in the U.S. growing corn and soybean. However, there is uncertainty in the measurements and using a small subset of data to determine model parameters makes validation difficult. In order to account for the differences in plant behavior across climate zones, an input dataset is used to define the planting dates and the length of the growing season. In order to improve model performance, and to understand the impacts of uncertainty from the input data, we evaluate the sensitivity of crop productivity and production against planting date and the length of the growing season. First, CLM-Crop is modified to establish plant date based on temperature trends for the previous 10-day period, constrained against the range of observed planting dates. This new climate-based model is compared with the standard fixed plant dates to determine how sensitive the model is to when seeding occurs, and how comparable the climate calculated plant dates are to the fixed dates. Next, the length of the growing season will be revised to account for an alternative climate. Finally, both the climate-based planting and new growth season will be simulated together. Results of the different model runs will be compared to the standard model and to observations to determine the importance of planting date and growing season length on crop productivity and yield.

Using Temperature Forecasts to Improve Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts in the Colorado and Rio Grande Basins

Science.gov (United States)

Lehner, F.; Wood, A.; Llewellyn, D.; Blatchford, D. B.; Goodbody, A. G.; Pappenberger, F.

2017-12-01

Recent studies have documented the influence of increasing temperature on streamflow across the American West, including snow-melt driven rivers such as the Colorado or Rio Grande. At the same time, some basins are reporting decreasing skill in seasonal streamflow forecasts, termed water supply forecasts (WSFs), over the recent decade. While the skill in seasonal precipitation forecasts from dynamical models remains low, their skill in predicting seasonal temperature variations could potentially be harvested for WSFs to account for non-stationarity in regional temperatures. Here, we investigate whether WSF skill can be improved by incorporating seasonal temperature forecasts from dynamical forecasting models (from the North American Multi Model Ensemble and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast System 4) into traditional statistical forecast models. We find improved streamflow forecast skill relative to traditional WSF approaches in a majority of headwater locations in the Colorado and Rio Grande basins. Incorporation of temperature into WSFs thus provides a promising avenue to increase the robustness of current forecasting techniques in the face of continued regional warming.

Understanding the Dynamics of Socio-Hydrological Environment: a Conceptual Framework

Science.gov (United States)

Woyessa, Y.; Welderufael, W.; Edossa, D.

2011-12-01

Human actions affect ecological systems and the services they provide through various activities, such as land use, water use, pollution and climate change. Climate change is perhaps one of the most important sustainable development challenges that threaten to undo many of the development efforts being made to reach the targets set for the Millennium Development Goals. Understanding the change of ecosystems under different scenarios of climate and biophysical conditions could assist in bringing the issue of ecosystem services into decision making process. Similarly, the impacts of land use change on ecosystems and biodiversity have received considerable attention from ecologists and hydrologists alike. Land use change in a catchment can impact on water supply by altering hydrological processes, such as infiltration, groundwater recharge, base flow and direct runoff. In the past a variety of models were used for predicting land-use changes. Recently the focus has shifted away from using mathematically oriented models to agent-based modelling (ABM) approach to simulate land use scenarios. A conceptual framework is being developed which integrates climate change scenarios and the human dimension of land use decision into a hydrological model in order to assess its impacts on the socio-hydrological dynamics of a river basin. The following figures present the framework for the analysis and modelling of the socio-hydrological dynamics. Keywords: climate change, land use, river basin

Seasonal impact on beach morphology and the status of heavy ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

the status of heavy mineral distribution along central Tamil Nadu coast, India. ... the seasonal changes in beach morphology and it does not affect the heavy ... of beach dynamics and depositional environment. ...... erates beach ridges and inland sediment deposits ... Waterways, Harbors and Coastal Engineering Division;.

Urbanization Changes the Temporal Dynamics of Nutrients and Water Chemistry

Science.gov (United States)

Steele, M.; Badgley, B.

2017-12-01

Recent studies find that urban development alters the seasonal dynamics of nutrient concentrations, where the highest concentrations of nitrogen occurred during the winter in urban watersheds, rather than the summer. However, the effects of urbanization on the seasonal concentrations of other nutrients and chemical components is unknown. Therefore, to determine how urbanization changes the seasonal dynamics, once a week we measured concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), nutrients (NO3, DON, TN, PO4), base cations (Ca, Mg, Na, K), anions (F, Cl, SO4), pH, sediment, temperature, conductivity, and dissolved oxygen (DO) of nine urban, agricultural, and minimally developed watersheds in southwest Virginia, USA. We found that urbanization disrupted the seasonal dynamics of all metrics, except DON, PO4, Ca, sediment, and DO, where some shifted to high concentrations during the winter (Cl, conductivity), highs during late winter or spring (DOC, Na), a season low (TN, SO4, NO3) or high (NH4) during the summer, or remained more constant throughout the year compared to the reference watersheds (Mg, K, pH). The complex changes in seasonal dynamics coincide with a decoupling of common correlations between constituents; for example, DO and NO3 are negatively correlated in reference watersheds (NO3 increases, DO decreases), but positively correlated in urban watersheds. These results suggest that as watersheds become more intensely developed, the influence of natural drivers like temperature and vegetation become steadily overcome by the influence of urban drivers like deicing salts and wastewater leakage, which exert increasing control of seasonal water quality and aquatic habitat.

Monitoring Inter- and Intra-Seasonal Dynamics of Rapidly Degrading Ice-Rich Permafrost Riverbanks in the Lena Delta with TerraSAR-X Time Series

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Samuel Stettner

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Arctic warming is leading to substantial changes to permafrost including rapid degradation of ice and ice-rich coasts and riverbanks. In this study, we present and evaluate a high spatiotemporal resolution three-year time series of X-Band microwave satellite data from the TerraSAR-X (TSX satellite to quantify cliff-top erosion (CTE of an ice-rich permafrost riverbank in the central Lena Delta. We apply a threshold on TSX backscatter images and automatically extract cliff-top lines to derive intra- and inter-annual CTE. In order to examine the drivers of erosion we statistically compare CTE with climatic baseline data using linear mixed models and analysis of variance (ANOVA. Our evaluation of TSX-derived CTE against annual optical-derived CTE and seasonal in situ measurements showed good agreement between all three datasets. We observed continuous erosion from June to September in 2014 and 2015 with no significant seasonality across the thawing season. We found the highest net annual cliff-top erosion of 6.9 m in 2014, in accordance with above-average mean temperatures and thawing degree days as well as low precipitation. We found high net annual erosion and erosion variability in 2015 associated with moderate mean temperatures but above average precipitation. According to linear mixed models, climate parameters alone could not explain intra-seasonal erosional patterns and additional factors such as ground ice content likely drive the observed erosion. Finally, mean backscatter intensity on the cliff surface decreased from −5.29 to −6.69 dB from 2013 to 2015, respectively, likely resulting from changes in surface geometry and properties that could be connected to partial slope stabilization. Overall, we conclude that X-Band backscatter time series can successfully be used to complement optical remote sensing and in situ monitoring of rapid tundra permafrost erosion at riverbanks and coasts by reliably providing information about intra-seasonal

Dynamic characteristics of soil respiration in Yellow River Delta wetlands, China

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Xiao; Luo, Xianxiang; Jia, Hongli; Zheng, Hao

2018-02-01

The stable soil carbon (C) pool in coastal wetlands, referred to as "blue C", which has been extensively damaged by climate change and soil degradation, is of importance to maintain global C cycle. Therefore, to investigate the dynamic characteristics of soil respiration rate and evaluate C budgets in coastal wetlands are urgently. In this study, the diurnal and seasonal variation of soil respiration rate in the reed wetland land (RL) and the bare wetland land (BL) was measured in situ with the dynamic gas-infrared CO2 method in four seasons, and the factors impacted on the dynamic characteristics of soil respiration were investigated. The results showed that the diurnal variation of soil respiration rate consistently presented a "U" curve pattern in April, July, and September, with the maximum values at 12:00 a.m. and the minimum values at 6:00 a.m. In the same season, the diurnal soil respiration rate in RL was significantly greater than those in BL (P respiration rate was 0.14, 0.42, and 0.39 μmol m-2 s-1 in RL, 0.05, 0.22, 0.13, and 0.01 μmol m-2 s-1 in BL, respectively. Soil surface temperature was the primary factor that influenced soil respiration, which was confirmed by the exponential positive correlation between the soil respiration rate and soil surface temperature in BL and RL (P respiration, confirming by the significantly negative correlation between soil respiration rate and the content of soluble salt. These results will be useful for understanding the mechanisms underlying soil respiration and elevating C sequestration potential in the coastal wetlands.

Seasonal dynamics of plankton communities coupled with ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

In this study, we studied the influence of the physical-chemical and biological factors (bacterioplankton and phytoplankton abundances) for zooplankton dynamics in a Sidi Saâd reservoir in Centre of Tunisia. The samplings were carried out in spring, summer, autumn and winter (2005 to 2006) in the deepest station (surface ...

Seasonal dynamics of the shoreline vegetation in the Zapatosa floodplain lake complex, Colombia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Udo Schmidt-Mumm

2014-09-01

Full Text Available Floodplain lakes and associated wetlands in tropical dry climates are controlled by pronounced and severe seasonal hydrologic fluctuations. We examined the plant community response to a bimodal flooding pattern in the Zapatosa Floodplain Lake Complex (ZFLC, Northern Colombia. We measured floristic and quantitative change in four sampling periods emphasizing seasonal differences in plant abundance and life-form structure. Of 79 species identified in the lake complex, 52 were used to characterize eight community types via classification and ordination procedures. Results showed that community structure does not change significantly during the flooding/receding stages. But maximum drawdown phase significantly disrupts the aquatic community structure and the exposed shorelines become colonized by ruderal terrestrial plants. Early rainfalls at the beginning of the wet season are emphasized as an important feature of plant regeneration and community development. The general strategy of the ZFLC vegetation can be framed into the flood pulse concept of river-floodplain systems. Thus, plant communities are mainly responding to disturbances and destruction events imposed by extreme water level fluctuations. Rev. Biol. Trop. 62 (3: 1073-1097. Epub 2014 September 01.

Cold season emissions dominate the Arctic tundra methane budget

Science.gov (United States)

Zona, Donatella; Gioli, Beniamino; Commane, Róisín; Lindaas, Jakob; Wofsy, Steven C.; Miller, Charles E.; Dinardo, Steven J.; Dengel, Sigrid; Sweeney, Colm; Karion, Anna; Chang, Rachel Y.-W.; Henderson, John M.; Murphy, Patrick C.; Goodrich, Jordan P.; Moreaux, Virginie; Liljedahl, Anna; Watts, Jennifer D.; Kimball, John S.; Lipson, David A.; Oechel, Walter C.

2016-01-01

Arctic terrestrial ecosystems are major global sources of methane (CH4); hence, it is important to understand the seasonal and climatic controls on CH4 emissions from these systems. Here, we report year-round CH4 emissions from Alaskan Arctic tundra eddy flux sites and regional fluxes derived from aircraft data. We find that emissions during the cold season (September to May) account for ≥50% of the annual CH4 flux, with the highest emissions from noninundated upland tundra. A major fraction of cold season emissions occur during the "zero curtain" period, when subsurface soil temperatures are poised near 0 °C. The zero curtain may persist longer than the growing season, and CH4 emissions are enhanced when the duration is extended by a deep thawed layer as can occur with thick snow cover. Regional scale fluxes of CH4 derived from aircraft data demonstrate the large spatial extent of late season CH4 emissions. Scaled to the circumpolar Arctic, cold season fluxes from tundra total 12 ± 5 (95% confidence interval) Tg CH4 y-1, ∼25% of global emissions from extratropical wetlands, or ∼6% of total global wetland methane emissions. The dominance of late-season emissions, sensitivity to soil environmental conditions, and importance of dry tundra are not currently simulated in most global climate models. Because Arctic warming disproportionally impacts the cold season, our results suggest that higher cold-season CH4 emissions will result from observed and predicted increases in snow thickness, active layer depth, and soil temperature, representing important positive feedbacks on climate warming.

The Role of Phytoplankton Dynamics in the Seasonal and Interannual Variability of Carbon in the Subpolar North Atlantic - a Modeling Study

Science.gov (United States)

Signorini, Sergio; Hakkinen, Sirpa; Gudmundsson, K.; Olsen, A.; Omar, A. M.; Olafsson, J.; Reverdin, G.; Henson, S. A.; McClain, C. R.; Worthen, D. L.

2014-01-01

We developed an ecosystem/biogeochemical model system, which includes multiple phytoplankton functional groups and carbon cycle dynamics, and applied it to investigate physical-biological interactions in Icelandic waters. Satellite and in situ data were used to evaluate the model. Surface seasonal cycle amplitudes and biases of key parameters (DIC, TA, pCO2, air-sea CO2 flux, and nutrients) are significantly improved when compared to surface observations by prescribing deep water values and trends, based on available data. The seasonality of the coccolithophore and "other phytoplankton" (diatoms and dinoflagellates) blooms is in general agreement with satellite ocean color products. Nutrient supply, biomass and calcite concentrations are modulated by light and mixed layer depth seasonal cycles. Diatoms are the most abundant phytoplankton, with a large bloom in early spring and a secondary bloom in fall. The diatom bloom is followed by blooms of dinoflagellates and coccolithophores. The effect of biological changes on the seasonal variability of the surface ocean pCO2 is nearly twice the temperature effect, in agreement with previous studies. The inclusion of multiple phytoplankton functional groups in the model played a major role in the accurate representation of CO2 uptake by biology. For instance, at the peak of the bloom, the exclusion of coccolithophores causes an increase in alkalinity of up to 4 µmol kg(sup -1) with a corresponding increase in DIC of up to 16 µmol kg(sup -1). During the peak of the bloom in summer, the net effect of the absence of the coccolithophores bloom is an increase in pCO2 of more than 20 µatm and a reduction of atmospheric CO2 uptake of more than 6 mmolm(sup -2) d(sup -1). On average, the impact of coccolithophores is an increase of air-sea CO2 flux of about 27 %. Considering the areal extent of the bloom from satellite images within the Irminger and Icelandic Basins, this reduction translates into an annual mean of nearly 1500

Influence of birth rates and transmission rates on the global seasonality of rotavirus incidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Pitzer, Virginia E; Viboud, Cécile; Lopman, Ben A; Patel, Manish M; Parashar, Umesh D; Grenfell, Bryan T

2011-11-07

Rotavirus is a major cause of mortality in developing countries, and yet the dynamics of rotavirus in such settings are poorly understood. Rotavirus is typically less seasonal in the tropics, although recent observational studies have challenged the universality of this pattern. While numerous studies have examined the association between environmental factors and rotavirus incidence, here we explore the role of intrinsic factors. By fitting a mathematical model of rotavirus transmission dynamics to published age distributions of cases from 15 countries, we obtain estimates of local transmission rates. Model-predicted patterns of seasonal incidence based solely on differences in birth rates and transmission rates are significantly correlated with those observed (Spearman's ρ = 0.65, p birth rates and transmission rates and explore how vaccination may impact these patterns. Our results suggest that the relative lack of rotavirus seasonality observed in many tropical countries may be due to the high birth rates and transmission rates typical of developing countries rather than being driven primarily by environmental conditions. While vaccination is expected to decrease the overall burden of disease, it may increase the degree of seasonal variation in the incidence of rotavirus in some settings.

Stormwater impact in Guanabara Bay (Rio de Janeiro): Evidences of seasonal variability in the dynamic of the sediment heavy metals

Science.gov (United States)

Fonseca, E. M.; Baptista Neto, J. A.; Silva, C. G.; McAlister, J. J.; Smith, B. J.; Fernandez, M. A.

2013-09-01

Guanabara Bay is one of the most prominent coastal bays in Brazil. This environment is an estuary of 91 rivers and channels, surrounded by the metropolis of Rio de Janeiro. The bay receives considerable amounts of contaminants introduced from sewage effluents, industrial discharge, urban and agricultural runoff, atmospheric fallout, and the combined inputs from the rivers, making Guanabara Bay one of the most polluted coastal environments on the Brazilian coastline. The aim of this work is to study the concentration and fractionation of the heavy metals within the sediments of the bay. In order to understand the possible seasonal influence on the heavy metal fractionation, two campaigns were carried out in two different seasons of the year (rainy and dry). Twelve stations, in four different areas, with different oceanographic characteristics, where chosen. To assess the bioavailability of the metals a selective extraction procedure was used to study the geochemical fractionation and bioavailability of Zn, Cu, Cr, Ni and Pb. The rainy season was very important with respect to variation in the total concentrations of Cr, Ni and Pb and their fractionation within different "operational" phases present in Guanabara Bay sediments. The water-soluble phase showed little importance, with respect to metal adsorption and this would suggest very low mobility of metals in the water column. Nevertheless, the potentially available metals within these sediments showed a high probability for their release and therefore cause contamination of the water column, since different parts of the bay are constantly subjected to dredging projects promoted by the harbor authorities.

Value versus Accuracy: application of seasonal forecasts to a hydro-economic optimization model for the Sudanese Blue Nile

Science.gov (United States)

Satti, S.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Siddiqui, S.; Badr, H. S.; Shukla, S.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.

2015-12-01

The unpredictable nature of precipitation within the East African (EA) region makes it one of the most vulnerable, food insecure regions in the world. There is a vital need for forecasts to inform decision makers, both local and regional, and to help formulate the region's climate change adaptation strategies. Here, we present a suite of different seasonal forecast models, both statistical and dynamical, for the EA region. Objective regionalization is performed for EA on the basis of interannual variability in precipitation in both observations and models. This regionalization is applied as the basis for calculating a number of standard skill scores to evaluate each model's forecast accuracy. A dynamically linked Land Surface Model (LSM) is then applied to determine forecasted flows, which drive the Sudanese Hydroeconomic Optimization Model (SHOM). SHOM combines hydrologic, agronomic and economic inputs to determine the optimal decisions that maximize economic benefits along the Sudanese Blue Nile. This modeling sequence is designed to derive the potential added value of information of each forecasting model to agriculture and hydropower management. A rank of each model's forecasting skill score along with its added value of information is analyzed in order compare the performance of each forecast. This research aims to improve understanding of how characteristics of accuracy, lead time, and uncertainty of seasonal forecasts influence their utility to water resources decision makers who utilize them.

Growing season carries stronger contributions to albedo dynamics on the Tibetan plateau.

Science.gov (United States)

Tian, Li; Chen, Jiquan; Zhang, Yangjian

2017-01-01

The Tibetan Plateau has experienced higher-than-global-average climate warming in recent decades, resulting in many significant changes in ecosystem structure and function. Among them is albedo, which bridges the causes and consequences of land surface processes and climate. The plateau is covered by snow/ice and vegetation in the non-growing season (nGS) and growing season (GS), respectively. Based on the MODIS products, we investigated snow/ice cover and vegetation greenness in relation to the spatiotemporal changes of albedo on the Tibetan Plateau from 2000 through 2013. A synchronous relationship was found between the change in GSNDVI and GSalbedo over time and across the Tibetan landscapes. We found that the annual average albedo had a decreasing trend, but that the albedo had slightly increased during the nGS and decreased during the GS. Across the landscapes, the nGSalbedo fluctuated in a synchronous pattern with snow/ice cover. Temporally, monthly snow/ice coverage also had a high correspondence with albedo, except in April and October. We detected clear dependencies of albedo on elevation. With the rise in altitude, the nGSalbedo decreased below 4000 m, but increased for elevations of 4500-5500 m. Above 5500 m, the nGSalbedo decreased, which was in accordance with the decreased amount of snow/ice coverage and the increased soil moisture on the plateau. More importantly, the decreasing albedo in the most recent decade appeared to be caused primarily by lowered growing season albedo.

Growing season carries stronger contributions to albedo dynamics on the Tibetan plateau.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Li Tian

Full Text Available The Tibetan Plateau has experienced higher-than-global-average climate warming in recent decades, resulting in many significant changes in ecosystem structure and function. Among them is albedo, which bridges the causes and consequences of land surface processes and climate. The plateau is covered by snow/ice and vegetation in the non-growing season (nGS and growing season (GS, respectively. Based on the MODIS products, we investigated snow/ice cover and vegetation greenness in relation to the spatiotemporal changes of albedo on the Tibetan Plateau from 2000 through 2013. A synchronous relationship was found between the change in GSNDVI and GSalbedo over time and across the Tibetan landscapes. We found that the annual average albedo had a decreasing trend, but that the albedo had slightly increased during the nGS and decreased during the GS. Across the landscapes, the nGSalbedo fluctuated in a synchronous pattern with snow/ice cover. Temporally, monthly snow/ice coverage also had a high correspondence with albedo, except in April and October. We detected clear dependencies of albedo on elevation. With the rise in altitude, the nGSalbedo decreased below 4000 m, but increased for elevations of 4500-5500 m. Above 5500 m, the nGSalbedo decreased, which was in accordance with the decreased amount of snow/ice coverage and the increased soil moisture on the plateau. More importantly, the decreasing albedo in the most recent decade appeared to be caused primarily by lowered growing season albedo.

Seasonal dynamics of mobile carbohydrate pools in phloem and xylem of two alpine timberline conifers.

Science.gov (United States)

Gruber, A; Pirkebner, D; Oberhuber, W

2013-10-01

Recent studies on non-structural carbohydrate (NSC) reserves in trees focused on xylem NSC reserves, while still little is known about changes in phloem carbohydrate pools, where NSC charging might be significantly different. To gain insight on NSC dynamics in xylem and phloem, we monitored NSC concentrations in stems and roots of Pinus cembra (L.) and Larix decidua (Mill.) growing at the alpine timberline throughout 2011. Species-specific differences affected tree phenology and carbon allocation during the course of the year. After a delayed start in spring, NSC concentrations in L. decidua were significantly higher in all sampled tissues from August until the end of growing season. In both species, NSC concentrations were five to seven times higher in phloem than that in xylem. However, significant correlations between xylem and phloem starch content found for both species indicate a close linkage between long-term carbon reserves in both tissues. In L. decidua also, free sugar concentrations in xylem and phloem were significantly correlated throughout the year, while a lack of correlation between xylem and phloem free sugar pools in P. cembra indicate a decline of phloem soluble carbohydrate pools during periods of high sink demand.

Interventions and Interactions: Understanding Coupled Human-Water Dynamics for Improved Water Resources Management in the Himalayas

Science.gov (United States)

Crootof, A.

2017-12-01

Understanding coupled human-water dynamics offers valuable insights to address fundamental water resources challenges posed by environmental change. With hydropower reshaping human-water interactions in mountain river basins, there is a need for a socio-hydrology framework—which examines two-way feedback loops between human and water systems—to more effectively manage water resources. This paper explores the cross-scalar interactions and feedback loops between human and water systems in river basins affected by run-of-the-river hydropower and highlights the utility of a socio-hydrology perspectives to enhance water management in the face of environmental change. In the Himalayas, the rapid expansion of run-of-the-river hydropower—which diverts streamflow for energy generation—is reconfiguring the availability, location, and timing of water resources. This technological intervention in the river basin not only alters hydrologic dyanmics but also shapes social outcomes. Using hydropower development in the highlands of Uttarakhand, India as a case study, I first illustrate how run-of-the-river projects transform human-water dynamics by reshaping the social and physical landscape of a river basin. Second, I emphasize how examining cross-scalar feedbacks among structural dynamics, social outcomes, and values and norms in this coupled human-water system can inform water management. Third, I present hydrological and social literature, raised separately, to indicate collaborative research needs and knowledge gaps for coupled human-water systems affected by run-of-the-river hydropower. The results underscore the need to understand coupled human-water dynamics to improve water resources management in the face of environmental change.

Early and late seasonal carbon sequestration and allocation in larch trees growing on permafrost in Central Siberia

Science.gov (United States)

Masyagina, Oxana; Prokushkin, Anatoly; Kirdyanov, Alexander; Artyukhov, Aleksey; Udalova, Tatiana; Senchenkov, Sergey; Rublev, Aleksey

2014-05-01

Despite large geographic extent of deciduous conifer species Larix gmelinii, its seasonal photosynthetic activity and translocation of photoassimilated carbon within a tree remain poorly studied. To get better insight into productivity of larch trees growing on permafrost soils in Siberian larch biome we aimed to analyze dynamics of foliage parameters (i.e. leaf area, biomass, %N, %P etc.), seasonal dynamics of photosynthetic activity and apply whole tree labeling by 13CO2, which is powerful and effective tool for tracing newly developed assimilates translocation to tissues and organs of a tree (Kagawa et al., 2006; Keel et al., 2012). Experimental plot has been established in mature 105 year-old larch stand located within the continuous permafrost area near Tura settlement (Central Siberia, 64o17'13" N, 100o11'55" E, 148 m a.s.l.). Trees selected for experiments represented mean tree of the stand. Measurements of seasonal photosynthetic activity and foliar biomass sampling were arranged from early growing season (June 8, 2013) until yellowing and senescence of needles on September 17, 2013. Labeling by 13C in whole tree chamber was conducted by three pulses ([CO2]max ≤ 2,500 ppmv, 13CO2 (30% v/v)) at the early (June) and late (August) phase of growing season for different trees in 3 replicates each time. Both early season and late season labeling experiments demonstrated high rate of 13CO2 assimilation and respective enrichment of needle tissues by 13C: δ13C increased from -28.7 up to +670‰ just after labeling. However, there was distinct post-labeling dynamics of needle δ13C among two seasonal experiments. At the early season 13C depletion in labeled needles was slower, and δ13C approached after 40 days ca. +110 ‰ and remained constant till senescence. In the late season (August) needles were losing labeled C with much faster rate and approached only +1.5 ‰ upon senescence (28 days exposition). These findings suggest that in early season ca. 20% of

Epidemic spread in coupled populations with seasonally varying migration rates

Science.gov (United States)

Muzyczyn, Adam; Shaw, Leah B.

2009-03-01

The H5N1 strain of avian influenza has spread worldwide, and this spread may be due to seasonal migration of birds and mixing of birds from different regions in the wintering grounds. We studied a multipatch model for avian influenza with seasonally varying migration rates. The bird population was divided into two spatially distinct patches, or subpopulations. Within each patch, the disease followed the SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model for epidemic spread. Migration rates were varied periodically, with a net flux toward the breeding grounds during the spring and towards the wintering grounds during the fall. The case of two symmetric patches reduced to single-patch SIR dynamics. However, asymmetry in the birth and contact rates in the breeding grounds and wintering grounds led to bifurcations to longer period orbits and chaotic dynamics. We studied the bifurcation structure of the model and the phase relationships between outbreaks in the two patches.

Seasonal changes in the assembly mechanisms structuring tropical fish communities.

Science.gov (United States)

Fitzgerald, Daniel B; Winemiller, Kirk O; Sabaj Pérez, Mark H; Sousa, Leandro M

2017-01-01

Despite growing interest in trait-based approaches to community assembly, little attention has been given to seasonal variation in trait distribution patterns. Mobile animals can rapidly mediate influences of environmental factors and species interactions through dispersal, suggesting that the relative importance of different assembly mechanisms can vary over short time scales. This study analyzes seasonal changes in functional trait distributions of tropical fishes in the Xingu River, a major tributary of the Amazon with large predictable temporal variation in hydrologic conditions and species density. Comparison of observed functional diversity revealed that species within wet-season assemblages were more functionally similar than those in dry-season assemblages. Further, species within wet-season assemblages were more similar than random expectations based on null model predictions. Higher functional richness within dry season communities is consistent with increased niche complementarity during the period when fish densities are highest and biotic interactions should be stronger; however, null model tests suggest that stochastic factors or a combination of assembly mechanisms influence dry-season assemblages. These results demonstrate that the relative influence of community assembly mechanisms can vary seasonally in response to changing abiotic conditions, and suggest that studies attempting to infer a single dominant mechanism from functional patterns may overlook important aspects of the assembly process. During the prolonged flood pulse of the wet season, expanded habitat and lower densities of aquatic organisms likely reduce the influence of competition and predation. This temporal shift in the influence of different assembly mechanisms, rather than any single mechanism, may play a large role in maintaining the structure and diversity of tropical rivers and perhaps other dynamic and biodiverse systems. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Seasonal variability of the circulation system in a West Greenland tidewater outlet glacier fjord, Godthåbsfjord (64°N)

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mortensen, John; Bendtsen, Jørgen; Lennert, Kunuk

2014-01-01

Many tidewater outlet glacier fjords surround the coast of Greenland, and their dynamics and circulation are of great importance for understanding the heat transport toward glaciers from the ice sheet. Thus, fjord circulation is a critical aspect for assessing the threat of global sea level rise...... due to melting of the ice sheet. However, very few observational studies describe the seasonal dynamics of fjord circulation. Here we present the first continuous current measurements (April–November) from a deep mooring deployed in a west Greenland tidewater outlet glacier fjord. Four distinct...... circulation phases are identified during the period, and they are related to exchange processes with coastal waters, tidal mixing, and melt processes on the Greenland Ice Sheet. During early summer, warm intermediate water is transported toward the glacier at an average velocity of about 7 cm s−1. In late...

Seasonal and regional dynamics of M. ulcerans transmission in environmental context: deciphering the role of water bugs as hosts and vectors.

Science.gov (United States)

Marion, Estelle; Eyangoh, Sara; Yeramian, Edouard; Doannio, Julien; Landier, Jordi; Aubry, Jacques; Fontanet, Arnaud; Rogier, Christophe; Cassisa, Viviane; Cottin, Jane; Marot, Agnès; Eveillard, Matthieu; Kamdem, Yannick; Legras, Pierre; Deshayes, Caroline; Saint-André, Jean-Paul; Marsollier, Laurent

2010-07-06

Buruli ulcer, the third mycobacterial disease after tuberculosis and leprosy, is caused by the environmental mycobacterium M. ulcerans. Various modes of transmission have been suspected for this disease, with no general consensus acceptance for any of them up to now. Since laboratory models demonstrated the ability of water bugs to transmit M. ulcerans, a particular attention is focused on the transmission of the bacilli by water bugs as hosts and vectors. However, it is only through detailed knowledge of the biodiversity and ecology of water bugs that the importance of this mode of transmission can be fully assessed. It is the objective of the work here to decipher the role of water bugs in M. ulcerans ecology and transmission, based on large-scale field studies. The distribution of M. ulcerans-hosting water bugs was monitored on previously unprecedented time and space scales: a total of 7,407 water bugs, belonging to large number of different families, were collected over one year, in Buruli ulcer endemic and non endemic areas in central Cameroon. This study demonstrated the presence of M. ulcerans in insect saliva. In addition, the field results provided a full picture of the ecology of transmission in terms of biodiversity and detailed specification of seasonal and regional dynamics, with large temporal heterogeneity in the insect tissue colonization rate and detection of M. ulcerans only in water bug tissues collected in Buruli ulcer endemic areas. The large-scale detection of bacilli in saliva of biting water bugs gives enhanced weight to their role in M. ulcerans transmission. On practical grounds, beyond the ecological interest, the results concerning seasonal and regional dynamics can provide an efficient tool in the hands of sanitary authorities to monitor environmental risks associated with Buruli ulcer.

Dynamic Analytical Capability to Better Understand and Anticipate Extremist Shifts Within Populations under Authoritarian Regimes.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bernard, Michael Lewis [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2015-11-01

The purpose of this work is to create a generalizable data- and theory-supported capability to better understand and anticipate (with quantifiable uncertainty): 1) how the dynamics of allegiance formations between various groups and society are impacted by active conflict and by third-party interventions and 2) how/why extremist allegiances co-evolve over time due to changing geopolitical, sociocultural, and military conditions.

Seasonal inter-relationships in atmospheric methane and companion delta13C values: effects of sinks and sources

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lassey, K. R.; Mikaloff Fletcher, S. E. (NIWA, Wellington (New Zealand)), e-mail: k.lassey@niwa.co.nz; Allan, W. (Allan Planning and Research Ltd., Petone (New Zealand))

2011-07-15

Recent developments in applying carbon-isotope information to better understand regional and global methane budgets infer a strong role by a highly fractionating seasonal sink such as atomic chlorine. Specifically, OH as the predominant seasonal sink cannot account for the 'phase ellipses' based on observed seasonal cycles of methane mixing ratio and isotope ratio, delta13C. Although a strong role by atomic chlorine is inferred empirically, open questions remain about the interplay between sources and sinks in determining the properties of phase ellipses. This paper employs a simple didactic model of the seasonal cycling of atmospheric methane to understand such interplay. We demonstrate that a single seasonal sink and seasonal source act together to imprint anti-phase seasonalities on atmospheric methane and delta13C, which lead to phase ellipses that collapse onto a straight line with slope characteristic of that sink. This explains empirical findings of these anti-phase relationships in three-dimensional modelling studies. We also demonstrate that multiple seasonal sinks acting with a seasonal source can yield surprising properties for the phase ellipse that not only explain some features of phase ellipses reported in modelling studies but also have the potential to explain marked inter-annual variation in phase ellipses based on observation

Future climate change enhances rainfall seasonality in a regional model of western Maritime Continent

Science.gov (United States)

Kang, Suchul; Im, Eun-Soon; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.

2018-03-01

In this study, future changes in rainfall due to global climate change are investigated over the western Maritime Continent based on dynamically downscaled climate projections using the MIT Regional Climate Model (MRCM) with 12 km horizontal resolution. A total of nine 30-year regional climate projections driven by multi-GCMs projections (CCSM4, MPI-ESM-MR and ACCESS1.0) under multi-scenarios of greenhouse gases emissions (Historical: 1976-2005, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5: 2071-2100) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) are analyzed. Focusing on dynamically downscaled rainfall fields, the associated systematic biases originating from GCM and MRCM are removed based on observations using Parametric Quantile Mapping method in order to enhance the reliability of future projections. The MRCM simulations with bias correction capture the spatial patterns of seasonal rainfall as well as the frequency distribution of daily rainfall. Based on projected rainfall changes under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the ensemble of MRCM simulations project a significant decrease in rainfall over the western Maritime Continent during the inter-monsoon periods while the change in rainfall is not relevant during wet season. The main mechanism behind the simulated decrease in rainfall is rooted in asymmetries of the projected changes in seasonal dynamics of the meridional circulation along different latitudes. The sinking motion, which is marginally positioned in the reference simulation, is enhanced and expanded under global climate change, particularly in RCP8.5 scenario during boreal fall season. The projected enhancement of rainfall seasonality over the western Maritime Continent suggests increased risk of water stress for natural ecosystems as well as man-made water resources reservoirs.

Seasonal water mass distribution in the Indonesian throughflow entering the Indian Ocean

OpenAIRE

Coatanoan, Christine; Metzl, N; Fieux, M; Coste, B

1999-01-01

A multiparametric approach is used to analyze the seasonal properties of water masses in the eastern Indian Ocean. The data were measured during two cruises of the Java Australia Dynamic Experiment (JADE) program carried out during two opposite seasons: August 1989 (SE monsoon) and February-March 1992 (NW monsoon). These cruises took place at the end of a La Nina event and during an EI. Nino episode, respectively. Seven sources have been identified in the studied region for the 200-800 m laye...

How Does Dung Beetle (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae) Diversity Vary Along a Rainy Season in a Tropical Dry Forest?

Science.gov (United States)

Novais, Samuel M A; Evangelista, Lucas A; Reis-Júnior, Ronaldo; Neves, Frederico S

2016-01-01

Dung beetle community dynamics are determined by regional rainfall patterns. However, little is known about the temporal dynamics of these communities in tropical dry forests (TDFs). This study was designed to test the following predictions: 1) Peak diversity of dung beetle species occurs early in the wet season, with a decrease in diversity (α and β) and abundance throughout the season; 2) Nestedness is the primary process determining β-diversity, with species sampled in the middle and the end of the wet season representing subsets of the early wet season community. Dung beetles were collected in a TDF in the northern Minas Gerais state, Brazil over three sampling events (December 2009, February and April 2010). We sampled 2,018 dung beetles belonging to 39 species and distributed among 15 genera. Scarabaeinae α-diversity and abundance were highest in December and equivalent between February and April, while β-diversity among plots increased along the wet season. The importance of nestedness and species turnover varies between pairs of sample periods as the main process of temporal β-diversity. Most species collected in the middle and end of the wet season were found in greater abundance in early wet season. Thus, the dung beetle community becomes more homogeneous at the beginning of the wet season, and as the season advances, higher resource scarcity limits population size, which likely results in a smaller foraging range, increasing β-diversity. Our results demonstrate high synchronism between the dung beetle life cycle and seasonality of environmental conditions throughout the wet season in a TDF, where the onset of rains determines adult emergence for most species. © The Authors 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America.

Atmospheric aerosols in Rome, Italy: sources, dynamics and spatial variations during two seasons

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Struckmeier

2016-12-01

both sites. While they were observed every day at the urban location, at the suburban location they were only found under favourable meteorological conditions, but were independent of advection of the Rome emission plume. Particles from sources in the metropolitan area of Rome and particles advected from outside Rome contributed 42–70 and 30–58 % to the total measured PM1, respectively. Apart from the general aerosol characteristics, in this study the properties (e.g. emission strength and dynamics (e.g. temporal behaviour of each identified aerosol type is investigated in detail to provide a better understanding of the observed seasonal and spatial differences.

Seasonal Prediction of Taiwan's Streamflow Using Teleconnection Patterns

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Chia-Jeng; Lee, Tsung-Yu

2017-04-01

Seasonal streamflow as an integrated response to complex hydro-climatic processes can be subject to activity of prevailing weather systems potentially modulated by large-scale climate oscillations (e.g., El Niño-Southern Oscillation, ENSO). To develop a seamless seasonal forecasting system in Taiwan, this study assesses how significant Taiwan's precipitation and streamflow in different seasons correlate with selected teleconnection patterns. Long-term precipitation and streamflow data in three major precipitation seasons, namely the spring rains (February to April), Mei-Yu (May and June), and typhoon (July to September) seasons, are derived at 28 upstream and 13 downstream catchments in Taiwan. The three seasons depict a complete wet period of Taiwan as well as many regions bearing similar climatic conditions in East Asia. Lagged correlation analysis is then performed to investigate how the precipitation and streamflow data correlate with predominant teleconnection indices at varied lead times. Teleconnection indices are selected only if they show certain linkage with weather systems and activity in the three seasons based on previous literature. For instance, the ENSO and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, proven to influence East Asian climate across seasons and summer typhoon activity, respectively, are included in the list of climate indices for correlation analysis. Significant correlations found between Taiwan's precipitation and streamflow and teleconnection indices are further examined by a climate regime shift (CRS) test to identify any abrupt changes in the correlations. The understanding of existing CRS is useful for informing the forecasting system of the changes in the predictor-predictand relationship. To evaluate prediction skill in the three seasons and skill differences between precipitation and streamflow, hindcasting experiments of precipitation and streamflow are conducted using stepwise linear regression models. Discussion and suggestions for coping

Use of a dynamic simulation model to understand nitrogen cycling in the middle Rio Grande, NM.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Meixner, Tom (University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ); Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Oelsner, Gretchen (University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ); Brooks, Paul (University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ); Roach, Jesse D.

2008-08-01

Water quality often limits the potential uses of scarce water resources in semiarid and arid regions. To best manage water quality one must understand the sources and sinks of both solutes and water to the river system. Nutrient concentration patterns can identify source and sink locations, but cannot always determine biotic processes that affect nutrient concentrations. Modeling tools can provide insight into these large-scale processes. To address questions about large-scale nitrogen removal in the Middle Rio Grande, NM, we created a system dynamics nitrate model using an existing integrated surface water--groundwater model of the region to evaluate our conceptual models of uptake and denitrification as potential nitrate removal mechanisms. We modeled denitrification in groundwater as a first-order process dependent only on concentration and used a 5% denitrification rate. Uptake was assumed to be proportional to transpiration and was modeled as a percentage of the evapotranspiration calculated within the model multiplied by the nitrate concentration in the water being transpired. We modeled riparian uptake as 90% and agricultural uptake as 50% of the respective evapotranspiration rates. Using these removal rates, our model results suggest that riparian uptake, agricultural uptake and denitrification in groundwater are all needed to produce the observed nitrate concentrations in the groundwater, conveyance channels, and river as well as the seasonal concentration patterns. The model results indicate that a total of 497 metric tons of nitrate-N are removed from the Middle Rio Grande annually. Where river nitrate concentrations are low and there are no large nitrate sources, nitrate behaves nearly conservatively and riparian and agricultural uptake are the most important removal mechanisms. Downstream of a large wastewater nitrate source, denitrification and agricultural uptake were responsible for approximately 90% of the nitrogen removal.

Recruitment of the Intertidal Barnacle Semibalanus balanoides; Metamorphosis and Survival from Daily to Seasonal Timescales

Science.gov (United States)

2008-09-01

benthic habitat is the terminal destination for marine animals in terms of their reproductive lifecycle. Recruitment dynamics relating to seasonal...novel tool to address the role of seasonally changing influences in benthic marine invertebrate recruitment. p. 69...been exploited as an example of marine animal recruitment. The adult barnacle is sessile and does not move after the transition from the larval to

Coral reef fish assemblages along a disturbance gradient in the northern Persian Gulf: A seasonal perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Ghazilou, Amir; Shokri, Mohammad Reza; Gladstone, William

2016-04-30

Seasonal dynamics of coral reef fish assemblages were assessed along a gradient of potential anthropogenic disturbance in the Northern Persian Gulf. Overall, the attributes of coral reef fish assemblages showed seasonality at two different levels: seasonal changes irrespective of the magnitude of disturbance level (e.g. species richness), and seasonal changes in response to disturbance level (e.g. total abundance and assemblage composition). The examined parameters mostly belonged to the second group, but the interpretation of the relationship between patterns of seasonal changes and the disturbance level was not straightforward. The abundance of carnivorous fishes did not vary among seasons. SIMPER identified the family Nemipteridae as the major contributor to the observed spatiotemporal variations in the composition of coral reef fish assemblages in the study area. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hydrological system dynamics of glaciated Karnali River Basin Nepal Himalaya using J2000 Hydrological model

Science.gov (United States)

Khatiwada, K. R.; Nepal, S.; Panthi, J., Sr.; Shrestha, M.

2015-12-01

Hydrological modelling plays an important role in understanding hydrological processes of a catchment. In the context of climate change, the understanding of hydrological characteristic of the catchment is very vital to understand how the climate change will affect the hydrological regime. This research facilitates in better understanding of the hydrological system dynamics of a himalayan mountainous catchment in western Nepal. The Karnali River, longest river flowing inside Nepal, is one of the three major basins of Nepal, having the area of 45269 sq. km. is unique. The basin has steep topography and high mountains to the northern side. The 40% of the basin is dominated by forest land while other land cover are: grass land, bare rocky land etc. About 2% of the areas in basin is covered by permanent glacier apart from that about 12% of basin has the snow and ice cover. There are 34 meteorological stations distributed across the basin. A process oriented distributed J2000 hydrologial model has been applied to understand the hydrological system dynamics. The model application provides distributed output of various hydrological components. The J2000 model applies Hydrological Response Unit (HRU) as a modelling entity. With 6861 HRU and 1010 reaches, the model was calibrated (1981-1999) and validated (2000-2004) at a daily scale using split-sample test. The model is able to capture the overall hydrological dynamics well. The rising limbs and recession limbs are simulated equally and with satisfactory ground water conditions. Based on the graphical and statistical evaluation of the model performance the model is able to simulate hydrological processes fairly well. Calibration shows that Nash Sutcliffe efficiency is 0.91, coefficient of determination is 0.92 Initial observation shows that during the pre-monsoon season(March to May) the glacial runoff is 25% of the total discharge while in the monsoon(June to September) season it is only 13%. The surface runoff

Seasonal dynamics of Boletus edulis and Lactarius deliciosus extraradical mycelium in pine forests of central Spain.

Science.gov (United States)

De la Varga, Herminia; Águeda, Beatriz; Ágreda, Teresa; Martínez-Peña, Fernando; Parladé, Javier; Pera, Joan

2013-07-01

The annual belowground dynamics of extraradical soil mycelium and sporocarp production of two ectomycorrhizal fungi, Boletus edulis and Lactarius deliciosus, have been studied in two different pine forests (Pinar Grande and Pinares Llanos, respectively) in Soria (central Spain). Soil samples (five per plot) were taken monthly (from September 2009 to August 2010 in Pinar Grande and from September 2010 to September 2011 in Pinares Llanos) in eight permanent plots (four for each site). B. edulis and L. deliciosus extraradical soil mycelium was quantified by real-time polymerase chain reaction, with DNA extracted from soil samples, using specific primers and TaqMan® probes. The quantities of B. edulis soil mycelium did not differ significantly between plots, but there was a significant difference over time with a maximum in February (0.1576 mg mycelium/g soil) and a minimum in October (0.0170 mg mycelium/g soil). For L. deliciosus, significant differences were detected between plots and over time. The highest amount of mycelium was found in December (1.84 mg mycelium/g soil) and the minimum in February (0.0332 mg mycelium/g soil). B. edulis mycelium quantities were positively correlated with precipitation of the current month and negatively correlated with the mean temperature of the previous month. Mycelium biomass of L. deliciosus was positively correlated with relative humidity and negatively correlated with mean temperature and radiation. No significant correlation between productivity of the plots with the soil mycelium biomass was observed for any of the two species. No correlations were found between B. edulis sporocarp production and weather parameters. Sporocarp production of L. deliciosus was positively correlated with precipitation and relative humidity and negatively correlated with maximum and minimum temperatures. Both species have similar distribution over time, presenting an annual dynamics characterized by a seasonal variability, with a clear increase

Sunlight mediated seasonality in canopy structure and photosynthetic activity of Amazonian rainforests

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bi, Jian; Knyazikhin, Yuri; Choi, Sungho; Park, Taejin; Barichivich, Jonathan; Ciais, Philippe; Fu, Rong; Ganguly, Sangram; Hall, Forrest; Hilker, Thomas; Huete, Alfredo; Jones, Matthew; Kimball, John; Lyapustin, Alexei I; Mõttus, Matti; Nemani, Ramakrishna R; Piao, Shilong; Poulter, Benjamin; Saleska, Scott R

2015-01-01

Resolving the debate surrounding the nature and controls of seasonal variation in the structure and metabolism of Amazonian rainforests is critical to understanding their response to climate change. In situ studies have observed higher photosynthetic and evapotranspiration rates, increased litterfall and leaf flushing during the Sunlight-rich dry season. Satellite data also indicated higher greenness level, a proven surrogate of photosynthetic carbon fixation, and leaf area during the dry season relative to the wet season. Some recent reports suggest that rainforests display no seasonal variations and the previous results were satellite measurement artefacts. Therefore, here we re-examine several years of data from three sensors on two satellites under a range of sun positions and satellite measurement geometries and document robust evidence for a seasonal cycle in structure and greenness of wet equatorial Amazonian rainforests. This seasonal cycle is concordant with independent observations of solar radiation. We attribute alternative conclusions to an incomplete study of the seasonal cycle, i.e. the dry season only, and to prognostications based on a biased radiative transfer model. Consequently, evidence of dry season greening in geometry corrected satellite data was ignored and the absence of evidence for seasonal variation in lidar data due to noisy and saturated signals was misinterpreted as evidence of the absence of changes during the dry season. Our results, grounded in the physics of radiative transfer, buttress previous reports of dry season increases in leaf flushing, litterfall, photosynthesis and evapotranspiration in well-hydrated Amazonian rainforests. (letter)

Identifying the Dynamic Catchment Storage That Does Not Drive Runoff

Science.gov (United States)

Dralle, D.; Hahm, W. J.; Rempe, D.; Karst, N.; Thompson, S. E.; Dietrich, W. E.

2017-12-01

The central importance of subsurface water storage in hydrology has resulted in numerous attempts to develop hydrograph and mass balance based techniques to quantify catchment storage state or capacity. In spite of these efforts, relatively few studies have linked catchment scale storage metrics to Critical Zone (CZ) structure and the status of water in hillslopes. Elucidating these relationships would increase the interpretability of catchment storage metrics, and aid the development of hydrologic models. Here, we propose that catchment storage consists of a dynamic component that varies on seasonal timescales, and a static component with negligible time variation. Discharge is assumed to be explicitly sensitive to changes in some fraction of the dynamic storage, while the remaining dynamic storage varies without directly influencing flow. We use a coupled mass balance and storage-discharge function approach to partition dynamic storage between these driving and non-driving storage pools, and compare inferences with direct observations of saturated and unsaturated dynamic water storages at two field sites in Northern California. We find that most dynamic catchment water storage does not drive streamflow in both sites, even during the wettest times of year. Moreover, the physical character of non-driving dynamic storage depends strongly on catchment CZ structure. At a site with a deep profile of weathered rock, the dynamic storage that drives streamflow occurs as a seasonally perched groundwater table atop fresh bedrock, and that which does not drive streamflow resides as seasonally dynamic unsaturated water in shallow soils and deep, weathered rock. At a second site with a relatively thin weathered zone, water tables rapidly rise to intersect the ground surface with the first rains of the wet season, yet only a small fraction of this dynamic saturated zone storage drives streamflow. Our findings emphasize how CZ structure governs the overlap in time and space of

Adaptation to seasonality and the winter freeze