WorldWideScience

Sample records for understand seasonal dynamics

  1. A Theoretical Approach to Understanding Population Dynamics with Seasonal Developmental Durations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lou, Yijun; Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

    2017-04-01

    There is a growing body of biological investigations to understand impacts of seasonally changing environmental conditions on population dynamics in various research fields such as single population growth and disease transmission. On the other side, understanding the population dynamics subject to seasonally changing weather conditions plays a fundamental role in predicting the trends of population patterns and disease transmission risks under the scenarios of climate change. With the host-macroparasite interaction as a motivating example, we propose a synthesized approach for investigating the population dynamics subject to seasonal environmental variations from theoretical point of view, where the model development, basic reproduction ratio formulation and computation, and rigorous mathematical analysis are involved. The resultant model with periodic delay presents a novel term related to the rate of change of the developmental duration, bringing new challenges to dynamics analysis. By investigating a periodic semiflow on a suitably chosen phase space, the global dynamics of a threshold type is established: all solutions either go to zero when basic reproduction ratio is less than one, or stabilize at a positive periodic state when the reproduction ratio is greater than one. The synthesized approach developed here is applicable to broader contexts of investigating biological systems with seasonal developmental durations.

  2. Understanding how Alpine Valley-Glacier Overdeepenings affect Seasonal Glacial Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Higson, Will

    2017-04-01

    Recent advances within the fields of photogrammetry and UAV technology has opened up the potential for use in glaciological fields due to high resolution imagery (1-20 cm), low costs, increased portability and improved ortho-mosaic software. Glaciers tend to move slowly and from lower resolution satellite data, smaller scale changes can be harder to infer, particularly over shorter, seasonal time periods. High resolution imagery from 5 sets of flights using a 'DJI Phantom 4' unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) were recorded over the lower 2 km of Findelen Glacier, Switzerland between 22 August and 6 September. 3-dimensional ortho-mosaics were created using Agisoft PhotoScan software of each flight. Photogrammetry was rectified by nine ground control points (GCP) positioned at the margins of the glacier in static locations and georeferenced to l-20 cm error using Magellan ProMark 3 DGPS equipment. Pixel sizing was suitable for feature tracking software (5 +/- 2 cm) but varied based on relative altitude and velocity at time of capture which was set to 2.5 m/s. vertical and horizontal overlap were high (89% & 70% respectively). Feature tracking of the glacier over 17 days combined with DEM change comparison shows a flattening slope angle and slowing of velocity before an assumed reigel and an increased velocity post-reigel. Glacier surface flow velocities over this period were found to be in the region of 1.5 m. However, this does not account for error levels of 40 cm throw doubt on findings, considered due to a lack of GCPs on the glacier itself. A repeat survey is scheduled to reduce error and seek to compare annual changes in glacial dynamics. Importantly, this method (which enables feature tracking at these high resolutions) is suitable for measuring smaller seasonal changes within glacier dynamics. Keywords: UAV, Feature Tracking, Glacier Dynamics, Overdeepening, Photogrammetry.

  3. Understanding myxozoan infection dynamics in the sea: Seasonality and transmission of Ceratomyxa puntazzi

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Alama-Bermejo, Gema; Šíma, Radek; Raga, J. A.; Holzer, Astrid S.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 43, č. 9 (2013), s. 771-780 ISSN 0020-7519 R&D Projects: GA ČR GBP505/12/G112 Grant - others:Valencian Autonomous Government(ES) BFPI/2007/289; Valencian Autonomous Government(ES) GVPRE/2008/185; Valencian Autonomous Government(ES) PROTMETEO/2011/040; Valencian Autonomous Government(ES) ISIC/2012/003 Institutional support: RVO:60077344 Keywords : Ceratomyxa puntazzi * Myxozoa * Diplodus puntazzo * Sentinel fish * Seawater * qPCR * Seasonality * Transmission Subject RIV: EB - Genetics ; Molecular Biology Impact factor: 3.404, year: 2013

  4. Understanding Seasonal Dynamics of the Photo-Protective Xanthophyll Cycle Improves Remote Detection of Photosynthetic Phenology in Deciduous Trees and Evergreen Conifers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ensminger, I.; Wong, C. Y.; Junker, L. V.; Bathena, Y.; Arain, M. A.; D'Odorico, P.

    2017-12-01

    The ability of plants to sequester carbon is highly variable over the course of the year and reflects seasonal variation in photosynthetic efficiency. This seasonal variation is most prominent during autumn, when leaves of deciduous tree species undergo senescence, which is associated with the downregulation of photosynthesis and a change of leaf color and leaf optical properties. Vegetation indices derived from remote sensing of leaf optical properties using e.g. spectral reflectance measurements are increasingly used to monitor and predict growing season length and seasonal variation in carbon sequestration. Here we compare leaf-level, canopy-level and drone based observations of leaf spectral reflectance measurements. We demonstrate that some of the widely used vegetation indices such as the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and photochemical reflectance index (PRI) vary in their ability to adequately track the seasonal variation in photosynthetic efficiency and chlorophyll content. We further show that monitoring seasonal variation of photosynthesis using NDVI or PRI is particularly challenging in evergreen conifers, due to little seasonal variation in foliage. However, there is remarkable seasonal variation in leaf optical properties associated with changes in pools of xanthophyll cycle pigments and carotenoids that provide a promising way of monitoring photosynthetic phenology in evergreen conifers via leaf reflectance measurements.

  5. Marine Bacterioplankton Seasonal Succession Dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bunse, Carina; Pinhassi, Jarone

    2017-06-01

    Bacterioplankton (bacteria and archaea) are indispensable regulators of global element cycles owing to their unique ability to decompose and remineralize dissolved organic matter. These microorganisms in surface waters worldwide exhibit pronounced seasonal succession patterns, governed by physicochemical factors (e.g., light, climate, and nutrient loading) that are determined by latitude and distance to shore. Moreover, we emphasize that the effects of large-scale factors are modulated regionally, and over shorter timespans (days to weeks), by biological interactions including molecule exchanges, viral lysis, and grazing. Thus the interplay and scaling between factors ultimately determine the success of particular bacterial populations. Spatiotemporal surveys of bacterioplankton community composition provide the necessary frame for interpreting how the distinct metabolisms encoded in the genomes of different bacteria regulate biogeochemical cycles. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  6. Seasonally forced disease dynamics explored as switching between attractors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keeling, Matt J.; Rohani, Pejman; Grenfell, Bryan T.

    2001-01-01

    Biological phenomena offer a rich diversity of problems that can be understood using mathematical techniques. Three key features common to many biological systems are temporal forcing, stochasticity and nonlinearity. Here, using simple disease models compared to data, we examine how these three factors interact to produce a range of complicated dynamics. The study of disease dynamics has been amongst the most theoretically developed areas of mathematical biology; simple models have been highly successful in explaining the dynamics of a wide variety of diseases. Models of childhood diseases incorporate seasonal variation in contact rates due to the increased mixing during school terms compared to school holidays. This ‘binary’ nature of the seasonal forcing results in dynamics that can be explained as switching between two nonlinear spiral sinks. Finally, we consider the stability of the attractors to understand the interaction between the deterministic dynamics and demographic and environmental stochasticity. Throughout attention is focused on the behaviour of measles, whooping cough and rubella.

  7. Understanding seasonal mobilities, health and wellbeing to Sanya, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kou, Lirong; Xu, Honggang; Hannam, Kevin

    2017-03-01

    Both the ageing of the Chinese population and elderly mobility impact on the Chinese social infrastructure, triggering challenges to maintain elderly wellbeing. This paper reflects on the notion that seasonal mobility promotes wellbeing, and explores how two crucial factors, namely, forced migration and health conditions, influence the relations between seasonal retirement mobility and wellbeing. This study analyses amenity-led seasonal retired mobilities to Sanya as a case study, and adopts and develops a conceptual framework for relations between mobility and wellbeing in terms of daily activity, sociality, and context through seasonal mobility. Qualitative methods including participant observation, non-participant observation, in-depth interviews, and mobile ethnography were used to collect data. This revealed the heterogeneity of health conditions, and the constrained mobilities of seasonal retirees. Health and willingness for mobility are shown as significant factors in influencing the relations between mobility and wellbeing, which are in turn complicated and dynamic. Seasonal mobilities bring about difficulties for retirees particularly in terms of their efforts to reconstruct their previous life and self-continuities. However, it is argued that these retirees can merely maintain temporary and superficial wellbeing due to constant health concerns and uncertainties over potential temporary or permanent return to their places of origin. Those with serious health problems have more limitations, sacrificing other aspects of wellbeing for physical health. Practical implications from state, destination, and individual levels to better facilitate seasonal mobility and promote wellbeing are provided. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. RFRP neurons - the doorway to understanding seasonal reproduction in mammals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jo Beldring Henningsen

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Seasonal control of reproduction is critical for the perpetuation of species living in temperate zones that display major changes in climatic environment and availability of food resources. In mammals, seasonal cues are mainly provided by the annual change in the 24h light/dark ratio (i.e. photoperiod, which is translated into the nocturnal production of the pineal hormone melatonin. The annual rhythm in this melatonin signal acts as a synchronizer ensuring that breeding occurs when environmental conditions favor survival of the offspring. Although specific mechanisms might vary among seasonal species, the hypothalamic RF (Arg-Phe amide-related peptides (RFRP-1 and -3 are believed to play a critical role in the central control of seasonal reproduction and in all seasonal species investigated, the RFRP system is persistently inhibited in short photoperiod. Central chronic administration of RFRP-3 in short day-adapted male Syrian hamsters fully reactivates the reproductive axis despite photoinhibitory conditions, which highlights the importance of the seasonal changes in RFRP expression for proper regulation of the reproductive axis. The acute effects of RFRP peptides, however, depend on species, photoperiod and recent studies point towards a different role of RFRP in regulating female reproductive activity. In this review we summarize the recent advances made to understand the role and underlying mechanisms of RFRP in the seasonal control of reproduction, primarily focusing on mammalian species.

  9. Population and evolutionary dynamics in spatially structured seasonally varying environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reid, Jane M; Travis, Justin M J; Daunt, Francis; Burthe, Sarah J; Wanless, Sarah; Dytham, Calvin

    2018-03-25

    Increasingly imperative objectives in ecology are to understand and forecast population dynamic and evolutionary responses to seasonal environmental variation and change. Such population and evolutionary dynamics result from immediate and lagged responses of all key life-history traits, and resulting demographic rates that affect population growth rate, to seasonal environmental conditions and population density. However, existing population dynamic and eco-evolutionary theory and models have not yet fully encompassed within-individual and among-individual variation, covariation, structure and heterogeneity, and ongoing evolution, in a critical life-history trait that allows individuals to respond to seasonal environmental conditions: seasonal migration. Meanwhile, empirical studies aided by new animal-tracking technologies are increasingly demonstrating substantial within-population variation in the occurrence and form of migration versus year-round residence, generating diverse forms of 'partial migration' spanning diverse species, habitats and spatial scales. Such partially migratory systems form a continuum between the extreme scenarios of full migration and full year-round residence, and are commonplace in nature. Here, we first review basic scenarios of partial migration and associated models designed to identify conditions that facilitate the maintenance of migratory polymorphism. We highlight that such models have been fundamental to the development of partial migration theory, but are spatially and demographically simplistic compared to the rich bodies of population dynamic theory and models that consider spatially structured populations with dispersal but no migration, or consider populations experiencing strong seasonality and full obligate migration. Second, to provide an overarching conceptual framework for spatio-temporal population dynamics, we define a 'partially migratory meta-population' system as a spatially structured set of locations that can

  10. Seasonal dynamics of bacterial meningitis: a time-series analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paireau, Juliette; Chen, Angelica; Broutin, Helene; Grenfell, Bryan; Basta, Nicole E

    2016-06-01

    Bacterial meningitis, which is caused mainly by Neisseria meningitidis, Haemophilus influenzae, and Streptococcus pneumoniae, inflicts a substantial burden of disease worldwide. Yet, the temporal dynamics of this disease are poorly characterised and many questions remain about the ecology of the disease. We aimed to comprehensively assess seasonal trends in bacterial meningitis on a global scale. We developed the first bacterial meningitis global database by compiling monthly incidence data as reported by country-level surveillance systems. Using country-level wavelet analysis, we identified whether a 12 month periodic component (annual seasonality) was detected in time-series that had at least 5 years of data with at least 40 cases reported per year. We estimated the mean timing of disease activity by computing the centre of gravity of the distribution of cases and investigated whether synchrony exists between the three pathogens responsible for most cases of bacterial meningitis. We used country-level data from 66 countries, including from 47 countries outside the meningitis belt in sub-Saharan Africa. A persistent seasonality was detected in 49 (96%) of the 51 time-series from 38 countries eligible for inclusion in the wavelet analyses. The mean timing of disease activity had a latitudinal trend, with bacterial meningitis seasons peaking during the winter months in countries in both the northern and southern hemispheres. The three pathogens shared similar seasonality, but time-shifts differed slightly by country. Our findings provide key insight into the seasonal dynamics of bacterial meningitis and add to knowledge about the global epidemiology of meningitis and the host, environment, and pathogen characteristics driving these patterns. Comprehensive understanding of global seasonal trends in meningitis could be used to design more effective prevention and control strategies. Princeton University Health Grand Challenge, US National Institutes of Health (NIH

  11. Diversity and seasonal dynamics of airborne archaea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fröhlich-Nowoisky, J.; Ruzene Nespoli, C.; Pickersgill, D. A.; Galand, P. E.; Müller-Germann, I.; Nunes, T.; Gomes Cardoso, J.; Almeida, S. M.; Pio, C.; Andreae, M. O.; Conrad, R.; Pöschl, U.; Després, V. R.

    2014-11-01

    Archaea are widespread and abundant in many terrestrial and aquatic environments, and are thus outside extreme environments, accounting for up to ~10% of the prokaryotes. Compared to bacteria and other microorganisms, however, very little is known about the abundance, diversity, and dispersal of archaea in the atmosphere. By means of DNA analysis and Sanger sequencing targeting the 16S rRNA (435 sequences) and amoA genes in samples of air particulate matter collected over 1 year at a continental sampling site in Germany, we obtained first insights into the seasonal dynamics of airborne archaea. The detected archaea were identified as Thaumarchaeota or Euryarchaeota, with soil Thaumarchaeota (group I.1b) being present in all samples. The normalized species richness of Thaumarchaeota correlated positively with relative humidity and negatively with temperature. This together with an increase in bare agricultural soil surfaces may explain the diversity peaks observed in fall and winter. The detected Euryarchaeota were mainly predicted methanogens with a low relative frequency of occurrence. A slight increase in their frequency during spring may be linked to fertilization processes in the surrounding agricultural fields. Comparison with samples from the Cape Verde islands (72 sequences) and from other coastal and continental sites indicates that the proportions of Euryarchaeota are enhanced in coastal air, which is consistent with their suggested abundance in marine surface waters. We conclude that air transport may play an important role in the dispersal of archaea, including assumed ammonia-oxidizing Thaumarchaeota and methanogens.

  12. Seasonal dynamic of content of 137Cs in mushrooms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zarubina, N.E.

    2007-01-01

    Researches of seasonal dynamics of content of 137 Cs in mushrooms were carried out. Under condition of selection, mushrooms of different kinds only 2 times in one year - in the beginning and in the end of vegetative period - are marked with increase of levels of specific activity of 137 Cs by autumn. During monthly selection of mushrooms, dynamics of the contents of 137 Cs carries spasmodic character. Seasonal dynamics of the contents of 137 Cs varies for mushrooms of different kinds

  13. Seasonal dynamic thinning at Helheim Glacier

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bevan, Suzanne L.; Luckman, Adrian; Khan, Shfaqat Abbas

    2015-01-01

    We investigate three annual mass-balance cycles on Helheim Glacier in south-east Greenland using TanDEM-X interferometric digital elevation models (DEMs), bedrock GPS measurements, and ice velocity from feature-tracking. The DEMs exhibit seasonal surface elevation cycles at elevations up to 800 m...

  14. Understanding seasonal home use: a recommended research agenda

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susan I. Stewart; Daniel J. Stynes

    1995-01-01

    Seasonal homes are a part of many people's recreation and tourism experiences, yet few studies address the choice, characteristics, use, or impacts of seasonal homes. Methodological issues associated with seasonal homes research are discussed, and a study underway in Michigan is described to show how some of these issues can be dealt with.

  15. Nonbreeding-Season Drivers of Population Dynamics in Seasonal Migrants: Conservation Parallels Across Taxa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna M. Calvert

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available For seasonal migrants, logistical constraints have often limited conservation efforts to improving survival and reproduction during the breeding season only. Yet, mounting empirical evidence suggests that events occurring throughout the migratory life cycle can critically alter the demography of many migrant species. Herein, we build upon recent syntheses of avian migration research to review the role of non-breeding seasons in determining the population dynamics and fitness of diverse migratory taxa, including salmonid fishes, marine mammals, ungulates, sea turtles, butterflies, and numerous bird groups. We discuss several similarities across these varied migrants: (i non-breeding survivorship tends to be a strong driver of population growth; (ii non-breeding events can affect fitness in subsequent seasons through seasonal interactions at individual- and population-levels; (iii broad-scale climatic influences often alter non-breeding resources and migration timing, and may amplify population impacts through covariation among seasonal vital rates; and (iv changes to both stationary and migratory non-breeding habitats can have important consequences for abundance and population trends. Finally, we draw on these patterns to recommend that future conservation research for seasonal migrants will benefit from: (1 more explicit recognition of the important parallels among taxonomically diverse migratory animals; (2 an expanded research perspective focused on quantification of all seasonal vital rates and their interactions; and (3 the development of detailed population projection models that account for complexity and uncertainty in migrant population dynamics.

  16. Seasonal methane dynamics in three temperate grasslands on peat

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schäfer, Carolyn; Elsgaard, Lars; Hoffmann, Carl Christian

    2012-01-01

    Background and Aims Drained peatlands are considered to be insignificant CH4 sources, but the effect of drainage on CH4 dynamics has not been extensively studied. We investigated seasonal dynamics of CH4 in two fen peat soils and one bog peat soil under permanent grassland in Denmark. Methods Soi...

  17. Seasonal seafloor oxygen dynamics on the Romanian Black Sea Shelf

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedrich, Jana; Balan, Sorin; van Beusekom, Justus E.; Naderipour, Celine; Secrieru, Dan

    2017-04-01

    The Black Sea suffers from the combined effects of anthropogenic eutrophication, overfishing and climate forcing. As a result, its broad and shallow western shelf in particular has a history of ecosystem collapse during the 1970s to the mid-1990s, which followed a slow recovery since the late 1990s due to reduction in anthropogenic pressures. Because of eutrophication, increased oxygen consumption caused recurrent widespread seasonal seafloor hypoxia in a system that is already naturally prone to decrease in bottom water oxygen during summer. On the shelf, reduced bottom water ventilation is a strong natural driver for seafloor hypoxia, due to strong seasonal thermohaline stratification as a result of freshwater inflow from the large rivers Danube, Dniester and Dniepro. To understand the present seasonal dynamics of seafloor oxygen on the Romanian shelf, a seafloor mooring was deployed in 2010 and 2016 during summer and autumn, for three and six months, respectively. The mooring, consisting of an Aanderaa SEAGUARD sensor package attached to an acoustic release, was deployed in 30 m water depth in the Portita region - north of Constanta and south of the Danube River Mouths. The in-situ time series of seafloor oxygen, temperature, turbidity, salinity, and current velocities and directions, combined with CTD profiles, benthic oxygen consumption rates based on ex-situ incubations of sediment cores, and pelagic oxygen respiration rates provide a set of information that allows biological and hydrophysical controls on seafloor oxygen to be identified. We observed the built-up of the thermohaline stratification during late spring and early summer, accompanied by steady decrease in bottom water oxygen. Superimposed settling of particles to the seafloor eventually led to the formation of seafloor hypoxia in late summer. Anticyclonic currents resemble diurnal tidal cycles, albeit low in magnitude. The effects of a strong rainstorm and a Danube flood event in late September

  18. Seasonal dynamics of plankton communities coupled with ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this study, we studied the influence of the physical-chemical and biological factors (bacterioplankton and phytoplankton abundances) for zooplankton dynamics in a Sidi Saâd reservoir in Centre of Tunisia. The samplings were carried out in spring, summer, autumn and winter (2005 to 2006) in the deepest station (surface ...

  19. Seasonal dynamics of Co60 accumulation by Elodea canadensis Rich

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bochenin, V.F.; Chebotina, M.Ya.

    1975-01-01

    The seasonal dynamics of Co 60 accumulation by one of the most widely distributed fresh-water plants, elodea (Elodea canadensis Rich), were studied. Accumulation was shown to vary with the season. A very low coefficient of accumulation (500-700 units) was typical for the summer period (June to August). It increased in the fall, reached its highest values (3500-4000) in mid-winter (January), and dropped sharply in the spring. Radioisotope concentrations in the plant varied similarly. The cumulative capacity of plants for Co 60 may vary by a factor of 6 to 7 during the year. It is suggested that the seasonal changes in Co 60 accumulation may be caused by both differences in the physiological state of the plants at different times of the year, and by seasonal variations in the hydrochemical regime of the water reservoir. Experiments were done to clarify which of these mechanisms is the determining factor. (V.A.P.)

  20. Seasonality Impact on the Transmission Dynamics of Tuberculosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yali Yang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The statistical data of monthly pulmonary tuberculosis (TB incidence cases from January 2004 to December 2012 show the seasonality fluctuations in Shaanxi of China. A seasonality TB epidemic model with periodic varying contact rate, reactivation rate, and disease-induced death rate is proposed to explore the impact of seasonality on the transmission dynamics of TB. Simulations show that the basic reproduction number of time-averaged autonomous systems may underestimate or overestimate infection risks in some cases, which may be up to the value of period. The basic reproduction number of the seasonality model is appropriately given, which determines the extinction and uniform persistence of TB disease. If it is less than one, then the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable; if it is greater than one, the system at least has a positive periodic solution and the disease will persist. Moreover, numerical simulations demonstrate these theorem results.

  1. Seasonal dynamics of zooplankton composition and abundance in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Seasonal dynamics of zooplankton composition and abundance as influenced by physicochemical parameters of Thomas Dam were studied between January and October, 2016. Zooplankton and water samples for physicochemical parameters were collected and analyzed fortnightly between 8:00 – 10:00 am using ...

  2. Understanding and Modeling Teams As Dynamical Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jamie C. Gorman

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available By its very nature, much of teamwork is distributed across, and not stored within, interdependent people working toward a common goal. In this light, we advocate a systems perspective on teamwork that is based on general coordination principles that are not limited to cognitive, motor, and physiological levels of explanation within the individual. In this article, we present a framework for understanding and modeling teams as dynamical systems and review our empirical findings on teams as dynamical systems. We proceed by (a considering the question of why study teams as dynamical systems, (b considering the meaning of dynamical systems concepts (attractors; perturbation; synchronization; fractals in the context of teams, (c describe empirical studies of team coordination dynamics at the perceptual-motor, cognitive-behavioral, and cognitive-neurophysiological levels of analysis, and (d consider the theoretical and practical implications of this approach, including new kinds of explanations of human performance and real-time analysis and performance modeling. Throughout our discussion of the topics we consider how to describe teamwork using equations and/or modeling techniques that describe the dynamics. Finally, we consider what dynamical equations and models do and do not tell us about human performance in teams and suggest future research directions in this area.

  3. Understanding Flood Seasonality and Its Temporal Shifts within the Contiguous United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ye, Sheng [Institute of Hydrology and Water Resources, School of Civil Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China; Li, Hong-Yi [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Leung, L. Ruby [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Guo, Jiali [College of Civil and Hydropower Engineering, China Three Gorges University, Yichang, China; State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China; Ran, Qihua [Institute of Hydrology and Water Resources, School of Civil Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China; Demissie, Yonas [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Washington State University Tri-Cities, Richland, Washington; Sivapalan, Murugesu [Department of Geography and Geographic Information Science, University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign, Champaign, Illinois; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign, Urbana, Illinois

    2017-07-01

    Understanding the causes of flood seasonality is critical for better flood management. This study examines the seasonality of annual maximum floods (AMF) and its changes before and after 1980 at over 250 natural catchments across the contiguous United States. Using circular statistics to define a seasonality index, our analysis focuses on the variability of the flood occurrence date. Generally, catchments with more synchronized seasonal water and energy cycles largely inherit their seasonality of AMF from that of annual maximum rainfall (AMR). In contrast, the seasonality of AMF in catchments with loosely synchronized water and energy cycles are more influenced by high antecedent storage, which is responsible for the amplification of the seasonality of AMF over that of AMR. This understanding then effectively explains a statistically significant shift of flood seasonality detected in some catchments in the recent decades. Catchments where the antecedent soil water storage has increased since 1980 exhibit increasing flood seasonality while catchments that have experienced increases in storm rainfall before the floods have shifted towards floods occurring more variably across the seasons. In the eastern catchments, a concurrent widespread increase in event rainfall magnitude and reduced soil water storage have led to a more variable timing of floods. Our findings of the role of antecedent storage and event rainfall on the flood seasonality provide useful insights for understanding future changes in flood seasonality as climate models projected changes in extreme precipitation and aridity over land.

  4. Within-season variation in sexual selection in a fish with dynamic sex roles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wacker, Sebastian; Amundsen, Trond; Forsgren, Elisabet; Mobley, Kenyon B

    2014-07-01

    The strength of sexual selection may vary between species, among populations and within populations over time. While there is growing evidence that sexual selection may vary between years, less is known about variation in sexual selection within a season. Here, we investigate within-season variation in sexual selection in male two-spotted gobies (Gobiusculus flavescens). This marine fish experiences a seasonal change in the operational sex ratio from male- to female-biased, resulting in a dramatic decrease in male mating competition over the breeding season. We therefore expected stronger sexual selection on males early in the season. We sampled nests and nest-holding males early and late in the breeding season and used microsatellite markers to determine male mating and reproductive success. We first analysed sexual selection associated with the acquisition of nests by comparing nest-holding males to population samples. Among nest-holders, we calculated the potential strength of sexual selection and selection on phenotypic traits. We found remarkable within-season variation in sexual selection. Selection on male body size related to nest acquisition changed from positive to negative over the season. The opportunity for sexual selection among nest-holders was significantly greater early in the season rather than late in the season, partly due to more unmated males. Overall, our study documents a within-season change in sexual selection that corresponds with a predictable change in the operational sex ratio. We suggest that many species may experience within-season changes in sexual selection and that such dynamics are important for understanding how sexual selection operates in the wild. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Understanding the Entrepreneurial Process: a Dynamic Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vânia Maria Jorge Nassif

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available There is considerable predominance in the adoption of perspectives based on characteristics in research into entrepreneurship. However, most studies describe the entrepreneur from a static or snapshot approach; very few adopt a dynamic perspective. The aim of this study is to contribute to the enhancement of knowledge concerning entrepreneurial process dynamics through an understanding of the values, characteristics and actions of the entrepreneur over time. By focusing on personal attributes, we have developed a framework that shows the importance of affective and cognitive aspects of entrepreneurs and the way that they evolve during the development of their business.

  6. Successional dynamics in the seasonally forced diamond food web.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klausmeier, Christopher A; Litchman, Elena

    2012-07-01

    Plankton seasonal succession is a classic example of nonequilibrium community dynamics. Despite the fact that it has been well studied empirically, it lacks a general quantitative theory. Here we investigate a food web model that includes a resource, two phytoplankton, and a shared grazer-the diamond food web-in a seasonal environment. The model produces a number of successional trajectories that have been widely discussed in the context of the verbal Plankton Ecology Group model of succession, such as a spring bloom of a good competitor followed by a grazer-induced clear-water phase, setting the stage for the late-season dominance of a grazer-resistant species. It also predicts a novel, counterintuitive trajectory where the grazer-resistant species has both early- and late-season blooms. The model often generates regular annual cycles but sometimes produces multiyear cycles or chaos, even with identical forcing each year. Parameterizing the model, we show how the successional trajectory depends on nutrient supply and the length of the growing season, two key parameters that vary among water bodies. This model extends nonequilibrium theory to food webs and is a first step toward a quantitative theory of plankton seasonal succession.

  7. Mission Driven Scene Understanding: Dynamic Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-01

    International Society for Optical Engineering; c2001. 14. Siva P, Russell C, Xiang T, Agapito L. Looking beyond the image : Unsupervised learning for...60,000 was 0.0818 and the training error rate was 0.0273, which means that the CNN had “ learned ” to assign the correct class label to an image , when... images is necessary for scene understanding. Such dynamic environmental conditions (e.g., changing illumination, precipitation, and vegetation) can

  8. Seasonal dynamics of fish assemblage in a pond canal

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Musil, J.; Adámek, Zdeněk; Baranyi, Ch.

    2007-01-01

    Roč. 15, č. 3-4 (2007), s. 217-226 ISSN 0967-6120. [New Challenges in Pond Aquaculture . České Budějovice, 26.04.2005-28.04.2005] Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60930519 Keywords : fish assemblage * pond canal * species richness * seasonal dynamics * alien species Subject RIV: GL - Fishing Impact factor: 0.828, year: 2007

  9. Seasonal Control of Mammalian Energy Balance: Recent Advances in the Understanding of Daily Torpor and Hibernation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jastroch, M; Giroud, S; Barrett, P; Geiser, F; Heldmaier, G; Herwig, A

    2016-11-01

    Endothermic mammals and birds require intensive energy turnover to sustain high body temperatures and metabolic rates. To cope with the energetic bottlenecks associated with the change of seasons, and to minimise energy expenditure, complex mechanisms and strategies are used, such as daily torpor and hibernation. During torpor, metabolic depression and low body temperatures save energy. However, these bouts of torpor, lasting for hours to weeks, are interrupted by active 'euthermic' phases with high body temperatures. These dynamic transitions require precise communication between the brain and peripheral tissues to defend rheostasis in energetics, body mass and body temperature. The hypothalamus appears to be the major control centre in the brain, coordinating energy metabolism and body temperature. The sympathetic nervous system controls body temperature by adjustments of shivering and nonshivering thermogenesis, with the latter being primarily executed by brown adipose tissue. Over the last decade, comparative physiologists have put forward integrative studies on the ecophysiology, biochemistry and molecular regulation of energy balance in response to seasonal challenges, food availability and ambient temperature. Mammals coping with such environments comprise excellent model organisms for studying the dynamic regulation of energy metabolism. Beyond the understanding of how animals survive in nature, these studies also uncover general mechanisms of mammalian energy homeostasis. This research will benefit efforts of translational medicine aiming to combat emerging human metabolic disorders. The present review focuses on recent advances in the understanding of energy balance and its neuronal and endocrine control during the most extreme metabolic fluctuations in nature: daily torpor and hibernation. © 2016 British Society for Neuroendocrinology.

  10. Chalk coast dynamics: Implications for understanding rock coast evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moses, Cherith; Robinson, David

    2011-12-01

    Rock cliffs and shore platforms are linked components of the world's coastal zone. Understanding of the dynamics of their relationships has been hindered by the often imperceptible changes that occur within human time scales. The Cretaceous Chalk coasts of northwest Europe, and particularly those of southeast England, are among the most dynamic, and most intensively studied, cliffed rock coasts in the world. Perceptible changes to both cliffs and platforms have been measured on monthly, seasonal, annual and decadal time scales. Through a review of previously published data and the addition of data not previously published, average cliff retreat rates are calculated as 0.49 ± 0.38 m y - 1 and platform erosion rates 3.999 ± 3.208 mm y - 1 . This paper highlights some of the interactions over time and space between process and measurement that continue to limit our understanding of the dynamics of rock coasts; in particular the link between rates of cliff retreat and platform erosion. It concludes by identifying fruitful areas for future research.

  11. Individual and collective stock dynamics: intra-day seasonalities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allez, Romain; Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe

    2011-01-01

    We establish several new stylized facts concerning the intra-day seasonalities of stock dynamics. Beyond the well-known U-shaped pattern of the volatility, we find that the average correlation between stocks increases throughout the day, leading to a smaller relative dispersion between stocks. Somewhat paradoxically, the kurtosis (a measure of volatility surprises) reaches a minimum at the open of the market, when the volatility is at its peak. We confirm that the dispersion kurtosis is a markedly decreasing function of the index return. This means that during large market swings, the idiosyncratic component of the stock dynamics becomes sub-dominant. In a nutshell, the early hours of trading are dominated by idiosyncratic or sector-specific effects with little surprises, whereas the influence of the market factor increases throughout the day, and surprises become more frequent.

  12. Seasonality in cholera dynamics: A rainfall-driven model explains the wide range of patterns in endemic areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baracchini, Theo; King, Aaron A.; Bouma, Menno J.; Rodó, Xavier; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Pascual, Mercedes

    2017-10-01

    Seasonal patterns in cholera dynamics exhibit pronounced variability across geographical regions, showing single or multiple peaks at different times of the year. Although multiple hypotheses related to local climate variables have been proposed, an understanding of this seasonal variation remains incomplete. The historical Bengal region, which encompasses the full range of cholera's seasonality observed worldwide, provides a unique opportunity to gain insights on underlying environmental drivers. Here, we propose a mechanistic, rainfall-temperature driven, stochastic epidemiological model which explicitly accounts for the fluctuations of the aquatic reservoir, and analyze with this model the historical dataset of cholera mortality in the Bengal region. Parameters are inferred with a recently developed sequential Monte Carlo method for likelihood maximization in partially observed Markov processes. Results indicate that the hydrological regime is a major driver of the seasonal dynamics of cholera. Rainfall tends to buffer the propagation of the disease in wet regions due to the longer residence times of water in the environment and an associated dilution effect, whereas it enhances cholera resurgence in dry regions. Moreover, the dynamics of the environmental water reservoir determine whether the seasonality is unimodal or bimodal, as well as its phase relative to the monsoon. Thus, the full range of seasonal patterns can be explained based solely on the local variation of rainfall and temperature. Given the close connection between cholera seasonality and environmental conditions, a deeper understanding of the underlying mechanisms would allow the better management and planning of public health policies with respect to climate variability and climate change.

  13. Climate and basin drivers of seasonal river water temperature dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laizé, Cédric L. R.; Bruna Meredith, Cristian; Dunbar, Michael J.; Hannah, David M.

    2017-06-01

    Stream water temperature is a key control of many river processes (e.g. ecology, biogeochemistry, hydraulics) and services (e.g. power plant cooling, recreational use). Consequently, the effect of climate change and variability on stream temperature is a major scientific and practical concern. This paper aims (1) to improve the understanding of large-scale spatial and temporal variability in climate-water temperature associations, and (2) to assess explicitly the influence of basin properties as modifiers of these relationships. A dataset was assembled including six distinct modelled climatic variables (air temperature, downward short-wave and long-wave radiation, wind speed, specific humidity, and precipitation) and observed stream temperatures for the period 1984-2007 at 35 sites located on 21 rivers within 16 basins (Great Britain geographical extent); the study focuses on broad spatio-temporal patterns, and hence was based on 3-month-averaged data (i.e. seasonal). A wide range of basin properties was derived. Five models were fitted (all seasons, winter, spring, summer, and autumn). Both site and national spatial scales were investigated at once by using multi-level modelling with linear multiple regressions. Model selection used multi-model inference, which provides more robust models, based on sets of good models, rather than a single best model. Broad climate-water temperature associations common to all sites were obtained from the analysis of the fixed coefficients, while site-specific responses, i.e. random coefficients, were assessed against basin properties with analysis of variance (ANOVA). All six climate predictors investigated play a role as a control of water temperature. Air temperature and short-wave radiation are important for all models/seasons, while the other predictors are important for some models/seasons only. The form and strength of the climate-stream temperature association vary depending on season and on water temperature. The

  14. Understanding the Dynamics of Turkish Nationalism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Carlos Razo, Jr.

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Many scholars have analyzed Turkish nationalism to understand its progress in the Turkish Republic from different perspectives. While some scholars have fore fronted the importance of cultural and religious aspects of Turkish nationalism, others have emphasized the significance of politics and economics in its formation. Three influential scholars have provided distinctive perceptions on the significance of this nationalism in Turkish society. Carter Vaughn Findley presents a thorough reevaluation of Turkish history in examining various dynamics of Turkish society. While Findley provides an overview on the role of nationalism in the nation’s history, Derya Bayir emphasizes that minorities are not protected in the Turkish legal system because the system aims to preserve Turkish nationalism. In contrast to these two perceptions, Jenny White expresses a modern analysis of the cultural and social aspects of Turkish society with an emphasis on the contrasting outlooks of Muslim nationalists and Kemalists on asserting one’s Turkishness. These three scholarly perspectives concerning the various aspects of Turkish nationalism are essential in assisting readers to grasp the impact of nationalism in Turkish society.

  15. Dynamics of Chytridiomycosis during the Breeding Season in an Australian Alpine Amphibian.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura A Brannelly

    Full Text Available Understanding disease dynamics during the breeding season of declining amphibian species will improve our understanding of how remnant populations persist with endemic infection, and will assist the development of management techniques to protect disease-threatened species from extinction. We monitored the endangered Litoria verreauxii alpina (alpine treefrog during the breeding season through capture-mark-recapture (CMR studies in which we investigated the dynamics of chytridiomycosis in relation to population size in two populations. We found that infection prevalence and intensity increased throughout the breeding season in both populations, but infection prevalence and intensity was higher (3.49 and 2.02 times higher prevalence and intensity, respectively at the site that had a 90-fold higher population density. This suggests that Bd transmission is density-dependent. Weekly survival probability was related to disease state, with heavily infected animals having the lowest survival. There was low recovery from infection, especially when animals were heavily infected with Bd. Sympatric amphibian species are likely to be reservoir hosts for the disease and can play an important role in the disease ecology of Bd. Although we found 0% prevalence in crayfish (Cherax destructor, we found that a sympatric amphibian (Crinia signifera maintained 100% infection prevalence at a high intensity throughout the season. Our results demonstrate the importance of including infection intensity into CMR disease analysis in order to fully understand the implications of disease on the amphibian community. We recommend a combined management approach to promote lower population densities and ensure consistent progeny survival. The most effective management strategy to safeguard the persistence of this susceptible species might be to increase habitat area while maintaining a similar sized suitable breeding zone and to increase water flow and area to reduce drought.

  16. Detecting signals of seasonal influenza severity through age dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lee, Elizabeth C.; Viboud, Cécile; Simonsen, Lone

    2015-01-01

    stages of an outbreak. To address the limitations of traditional indicators, we propose a novel severity index based on influenza age dynamics estimated from routine physician diagnosis data that can be used retrospectively and for early warning. METHODS: We developed a quantitative 'ground truth......' severity benchmark that synthesizes multiple traditional severity indicators from publicly available influenza surveillance data in the United States. Observing that the age distribution of cases may signal severity early in an epidemic, we constructed novel retrospective and early warning severity indexes....... The retrospective index was well correlated with the severity benchmark and correctly identified the two most severe seasons. The early warning index performance varied, but it projected 2007-08 as relatively severe 10 weeks prior to the epidemic peak. Influenza severity varied significantly among states within...

  17. Managing living marine resources in a dynamic environment: the role of seasonal to decadal climate forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tommasi, Desiree; Stock, Charles A.; Hobday, Alistair J.

    2017-01-01

    Recent developments in global dynamical climate prediction systems have allowed for skillful predictions of climate variables relevant to living marine resources (LMRs) at a scale useful to understanding and managing LMRs. Such predictions present opportunities for improved LMR management......, benefitting both managers and stakeholders. Here, we provide an overview of climate prediction systems and advances in seasonal to decadal prediction of marine-resource relevant environmental variables. We then describe a range of climate-sensitive LMR decisions that can be taken at lead-times of months...

  18. Disentangling seasonal bacterioplankton population dynamics by high-frequency sampling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindh, Markus V; Sjöstedt, Johanna; Andersson, Anders F; Baltar, Federico; Hugerth, Luisa W; Lundin, Daniel; Muthusamy, Saraladevi; Legrand, Catherine; Pinhassi, Jarone

    2015-07-01

    Multiyear comparisons of bacterioplankton succession reveal that environmental conditions drive community shifts with repeatable patterns between years. However, corresponding insight into bacterioplankton dynamics at a temporal resolution relevant for detailed examination of variation and characteristics of specific populations within years is essentially lacking. During 1 year, we collected 46 samples in the Baltic Sea for assessing bacterial community composition by 16S rRNA gene pyrosequencing (nearly twice weekly during productive season). Beta-diversity analysis showed distinct clustering of samples, attributable to seemingly synchronous temporal transitions among populations (populations defined by 97% 16S rRNA gene sequence identity). A wide spectrum of bacterioplankton dynamics was evident, where divergent temporal patterns resulted both from pronounced differences in relative abundance and presence/absence of populations. Rates of change in relative abundance calculated for individual populations ranged from 0.23 to 1.79 day(-1) . Populations that were persistently dominant, transiently abundant or generally rare were found in several major bacterial groups, implying evolution has favoured a similar variety of life strategies within these groups. These findings suggest that high temporal resolution sampling allows constraining the timescales and frequencies at which distinct populations transition between being abundant or rare, thus potentially providing clues about physical, chemical or biological forcing on bacterioplankton community structure. © 2014 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Migration phenology and seasonal fidelity of an Arctic marine predator in relation to sea ice dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cherry, Seth G; Derocher, Andrew E; Thiemann, Gregory W; Lunn, Nicholas J

    2013-07-01

    Understanding how seasonal environmental conditions affect the timing and distribution of synchronized animal movement patterns is a central issue in animal ecology. Migration, a behavioural adaptation to seasonal environmental fluctuations, is a fundamental part of the life history of numerous species. However, global climate change can alter the spatiotemporal distribution of resources and thus affect the seasonal movement patterns of migratory animals. We examined sea ice dynamics relative to migration patterns and seasonal geographical fidelity of an Arctic marine predator, the polar bear (Ursus maritimus). Polar bear movement patterns were quantified using satellite-linked telemetry data collected from collars deployed between 1991-1997 and 2004-2009. We showed that specific sea ice characteristics can predict the timing of seasonal polar bear migration on and off terrestrial refugia. In addition, fidelity to specific onshore regions during the ice-free period was predicted by the spatial pattern of sea ice break-up but not by the timing of break-up. The timing of migration showed a trend towards earlier arrival of polar bears on shore and later departure from land, which has been driven by climate-induced declines in the availability of sea ice. Changes to the timing of migration have resulted in polar bears spending progressively longer periods of time on land without access to sea ice and their marine mammal prey. The links between increased atmospheric temperatures, sea ice dynamics, and the migratory behaviour of an ice-dependent species emphasizes the importance of quantifying and monitoring relationships between migratory wildlife and environmental cues that may be altered by climate change. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2013 British Ecological Society.

  20. Understanding dynamic capabilities through knowledge management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Anders Paarup

    2006-01-01

    In the paper eight knowledge management activities are identified; knowledge creation, acquisition, capture, assembly, sharing, integration, leverage and exploitation. These activities are assembled into the three dynamic capabilities of knowledge development, knowledge (re)combination and knowle......In the paper eight knowledge management activities are identified; knowledge creation, acquisition, capture, assembly, sharing, integration, leverage and exploitation. These activities are assembled into the three dynamic capabilities of knowledge development, knowledge (re......)combination and knowledge use. The dynamic capabilities and the associated knowledge management activities create flows to and from the firm’s stock of knowledge and they support the creation and use of organizational capabilities....

  1. Understanding Microbial Communities: Function, Structure and Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-02-11

    microbial communities: Function, structure and dynamics’, at the Isaac Newton Institute, University of Cambridge, United Kingdom, from August to...dynamics’, at the Isaac Newton Institute, University of Cambridge, United Kingdom, from August to December 2014. The programme involved over 150...Communities: Function, Structure and Dynamics’, at the Isaac Newton Institute, Cambridge University, UK, from 19th August 2014 – 19th December 2014

  2. Long-term and seasonal dynamics of dengue in Iquitos, Peru.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven T Stoddard

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Long-term disease surveillance data provide a basis for studying drivers of pathogen transmission dynamics. Dengue is a mosquito-borne disease caused by four distinct, but related, viruses (DENV-1-4 that potentially affect over half the world's population. Dengue incidence varies seasonally and on longer time scales, presumably driven by the interaction of climate and host susceptibility. Precise understanding of dengue dynamics is constrained, however, by the relative paucity of laboratory-confirmed longitudinal data.We studied 10 years (2000-2010 of laboratory-confirmed, clinic-based surveillance data collected in Iquitos, Peru. We characterized inter and intra-annual patterns of dengue dynamics on a weekly time scale using wavelet analysis. We explored the relationships of case counts to climatic variables with cross-correlation maps on annual and trimester bases.Transmission was dominated by single serotypes, first DENV-3 (2001-2007 then DENV-4 (2008-2010. After 2003, incidence fluctuated inter-annually with outbreaks usually occurring between October and April. We detected a strong positive autocorrelation in case counts at a lag of ∼ 70 weeks, indicating a shift in the timing of peak incidence year-to-year. All climatic variables showed modest seasonality and correlated weakly with the number of reported dengue cases across a range of time lags. Cases were reduced after citywide insecticide fumigation if conducted early in the transmission season.Dengue case counts peaked seasonally despite limited intra-annual variation in climate conditions. Contrary to expectations for this mosquito-borne disease, no climatic variable considered exhibited a strong relationship with transmission. Vector control operations did, however, appear to have a significant impact on transmission some years. Our results indicate that a complicated interplay of factors underlie DENV transmission in contexts such as Iquitos.

  3. Seasonal timing of first rain storms affects rare plant population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, J.M.; McEachern, A.K.; Cowan, C.

    2011-01-01

    A major challenge in forecasting the ecological consequences of climate change is understanding the relative importance of changes to mean conditions vs. changes to discrete climatic events, such as storms, frosts, or droughts. Here we show that the first major storm of the growing season strongly influences the population dynamics of three rare and endangered annual plant species in a coastal California (USA) ecosystem. In a field experiment we used moisture barriers and water addition to manipulate the timing and temperature associated with first major rains of the season. The three focal species showed two- to fivefold variation in per capita population growth rates between the different storm treatments, comparable to variation found in a prior experiment imposing eightfold differences in season-long precipitation. Variation in germination was a major demographic driver of how two of three species responded to the first rains. For one of these species, the timing of the storm was the most critical determinant of its germination, while the other showed enhanced germination with colder storm temperatures. The role of temperature was further supported by laboratory trials showing enhanced germination in cooler treatments. Our work suggests that, because of species-specific cues for demographic transitions such as germination, changes to discrete climate events may be as, if not more, important than changes to season-long variables.

  4. Seasonal dynamics of insecticide resistance, multiple resistance, and morphometric variation in field populations of Culex pipiens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taskin, Belgin Gocmen; Dogaroglu, Taylan; Kilic, Sercan; Dogac, Ersin; Taskin, Vatan

    2016-05-01

    three different seasons. The results of this study have advanced our knowledge of the potential dynamics of insecticide resistance among populations of the Cx. pipiens complex. The implications of these results to the understanding of the evolution of insecticide resistance and the management of resistance in mosquitoes are discussed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. The Contribution of GGOS to Understanding Dynamic Earth Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gross, Richard

    2017-04-01

    Geodesy is the science of the Earth's shape, size, gravity and rotation, including their evolution in time. Geodetic observations play a major role in the solid Earth sciences because they are fundamental for the understanding and modeling of Earth system processes. Changes in the Earth's shape, its gravitational field, and its rotation are caused by external forces acting on the Earth system and internal processes involving mass transfer and exchange of angular and linear momentum. Thus, variations in these geodetic quantities of the Earth reflect and constrain mechanical and thermo-dynamic processes in the Earth system. Mitigating the impact on human life and property of natural hazards such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, debris flows, landslides, land subsidence, sea level change, tsunamis, floods, storm surges, hurricanes and extreme weather is an important scientific task to which geodetic observations make fundamental contributions. Geodetic observations can be used to monitor the pre-eruptive deformation of volcanoes and the pre-seismic deformation of earthquake fault zones, aiding in the issuance of volcanic eruption and earthquake warnings. They can also be used to rapidly estimate earthquake fault motion, aiding in the modeling of tsunami genesis and the issuance of tsunami warnings. Geodetic observations are also used in other areas of the Earth sciences, not just the solid Earth sciences. For example, geodesy contributes to atmospheric science by supporting both observation and prediction of the weather by geo-referencing meteorological observing data and by globally tracking change in stratospheric mass and lower tropospheric water vapor fields. Geodetic measurements of refraction profiles derived from satellite occultation data are routinely assimilated into numerical weather prediction models. Geodesy contributes to hydrologic studies by providing a unique global reference system for measurements of: sub-seasonal, seasonal and secular movements

  6. Understanding Digital Learning from the Perspective of Systems Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kok, Ayse

    2009-01-01

    The System Dynamics approach can be seen as a new way of understanding dynamical phenonema (natural, physical, biological, etc.) that occur in our daily lives taking into consideration not only single pairs of cause-effect variables, but the functioning of the system as a whole. This approach also provides the students with a new understanding in…

  7. Seasonal dynamics of important for Coriandrum sativum virus pathogens

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Dikova

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract. The objective of the study was the establishment of the seasonal dynamics of some wide spread infectious diseases, caused from virus pathogens on the most important for Bulgaria essential oil-bearing culture coriander – Coriandrum sativum (L., that was a premise for determination of dates and means for the control of these pathogens. The researches for the establishment of viral infection in coriander were carried out by the serological method ELISA (Enzyme linked immunosorbent assay, variant DAS-ELISA in the Division for Plant Protection to the Institute of Soil Science, Agrotechnologies and Plant Protection (ISSAPP Nikola Poushkarov, Sofia, Bulgaria. The observations for the establishment of aphids in coriander crop were carried out in the Institute of Roses, Essential and Medical cultures (IREMC near Kasanlak, Bulgaria. A rise of the infection, expressing by the increase of the viral concentration in the summer in comparison with the spring was established for the following pathological for coriander viruses: Alfalfa mosaic virus (AMV and Cucumber mosaic virus (CMV. The number of populations of aphids (carriers – vectors of AMV and CMV as well as the coriander plants with symptoms of viruses increased in the summer in comparison with the spring. The established dependences will be taken into consideration in the cases of the integrated management of pests on coriander.

  8. Understanding the complexity of human gait dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scafetta, Nicola; Marchi, Damiano; West, Bruce J.

    2009-06-01

    Time series of human gait stride intervals exhibit fractal and multifractal properties under several conditions. Records from subjects walking at normal, slow, and fast pace speed are analyzed to determine changes in the fractal scalings as a function of the stress condition of the system. Records from subjects with different age from children to elderly and patients suffering from neurodegenerative disease are analyzed to determine changes in the fractal scalings as a function of the physical maturation or degeneration of the system. A supercentral pattern generator model is presented to simulate the above two properties that are typically found in dynamical network performance: that is, how a dynamical network responds to stress and to evolution.

  9. Understanding calcium dynamics experiments and theory

    CERN Document Server

    Malchow, Dieter

    2003-01-01

    Intracellular Calcium is an important messenger in living cells. Calcium dynamics display complex temporal and spatial structures created by the concentration patterns which are characteristic for a nonlinear system operating far from thermodynamic equilibrium. Written as a set of tutorial reviews on both experimental facts and theoretical modelling, this volume is intended as an introduction and modern reference in the field for graduate students and researchers in biophysics, biochemistry and applied mathematics.

  10. Short-term community dynamics in seasonal and hyperseasonal cerrados

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MV. Cianciaruso

    Full Text Available In South America, the largest seasonal savanna region is the Brazilian cerrado. Our aim was to study temporal changes in some community descriptors, such as floristic composition, richness, species density, plant density, and cylindrical volume, in a seasonal cerrado, comparing it to a nearby hyperseasonal cerrado. In four different seasons, we placed randomly ten 1 m² quadrats in each vegetation form and sampled all the vascular plants. Seasonal changes in floristic composition, species density, and plant density were less pronounced in the seasonal than in the hyperseasonal cerrado. Floristic similarity between the vegetation forms was lower when the hyperseasonal cerrado was waterlogged. Richness and species density were higher in the seasonal cerrado, which reached its biomass peak at mid rainy season. The hyperseasonal cerrado, in turn, reached its biomass peak at early rainy season and, despite the waterlogging, maintained it until late rainy season. In the hyperseasonal cerrado, waterlogging acts as an environmental filter restricting the number of cerrado species able to withstand it. The seasonal cerrado community was more stable than the hyperseasonal one. Our results corroborated the idea that changes in the environmental filters will affect floristic composition and community structure in savannas.

  11. The study of seasonal dynamics of plankton trajectories using the duble-smoothing method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Syarki Maria

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available To study the seasonal processes in zooplankton of Lake Onega and to determine the changes in the trajectory its values ​​were analyzed by the method of double smoothing. A series of smooth curves describes the trajectories of the changes of the number and biomass of zooplankton and its major groups during the growing season (May to October. They reflect the basic laws of community dynamics, the shape of the trajectories of seasonal dynamics, phenology, or the dates of important events, the periods and the increasing and decreasing rate of plankter amount, the seasonal changes in the community structure.

  12. Seasonal Population Dynamics of Rodents of Mount Chilalo, Arsi ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    These are: Arvicanthis abyssinicus, A. blicki, Lophuromys flavopunctatus, L. melanonyx, Mastomys natalensis, Mus mahomet, Otomys typus, Stenocephalemys albipes, S. albocaudata and S. griseicauda. Mus mahomet was trapped only during the dry season. There was no significant seasonal variation in the capture of ...

  13. Understanding Arsenic Dynamics in Agronomic Systems to ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    This review is on arsenic in agronomic systems, and covers processes that influence the entry of arsenic into the human food supply. The scope is from sources of arsenic (natural and anthropogenic) in soils, biogeochemical and rhizosphere processes that control arsenic speciation and availability, through to mechanisms of uptake by crop plants and potential mitigation strategies. This review makes a case for taking steps to prevent or limit crop uptake of arsenic, wherever possible, and to work toward a long-term solution to the presence of arsenic in agronomic systems. The past two decades have seen important advances in our understanding of how biogeochemical and physiological processes influence human exposure to soil arsenic, and thus must now prompt an informed reconsideration and unification of regulations to protect the quality of agricultural and residential soils. Consumption of staple foods such as rice, beverages such as apple juice, or vegetables grown in historically arsenic-contaminated soils is now recognized as a tangible route of arsenic exposure that, in many cases, is more significant than exposure from drinking water. Understanding the sources of arsenic to crop plants and the factors that influence them is key to reducing exposure now and preventing exposure in future. In addition to the abundant natural sources of arsenic, there are a large number of industrial and agricultural sources of arsenic to the soil; from mining wastes, coal fly

  14. Effects of Forest Gaps on Litter Lignin and Cellulose Dynamics Vary Seasonally in an Alpine Forest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Han Li

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available To understand how forest gaps and the associated canopy control litter lignin and cellulose dynamics by redistributing the winter snow coverage and hydrothermal conditions in the growing season, a field litterbag trial was conducted in the alpine Minjiang fir (Abies faxoniana Rehder and E.H. Wilson forest in a transitional area located in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River and the eastern Tibetan Plateau. Over the first year of litter decomposition, the litter exhibited absolute cellulose loss and absolute lignin accumulation except for the red birch litter. The changes in litter cellulose and lignin were significantly affected by the interactions among gap position, period and species. Litter cellulose exhibited a greater loss in the winter with the highest daily loss rate observed during the snow cover period. Both cellulose and lignin exhibited greater changes under the deep snow cover at the gap center in the winter, but the opposite pattern occurred under the closed canopy in the growing season. The results suggest that decreased snowpack seasonality due to winter warming may limit litter cellulose and lignin degradation in alpine forest ecosystems, which could further inhibit litter decomposition. As a result, the ongoing winter warming and gap vanishing would slow soil carbon sequestration from foliar litter in cold biomes.

  15. Hydrological niche separation explains seasonal and inter-annual variations of vegetation dynamics in seasonally dry tropical forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, X.; Medvigy, D.; Powers, J. S.; Becknell, J. M.; Guan, K.

    2015-12-01

    Despite ample water supply, vegetation dynamics are subject to seasonal water stress in large fraction of tropical forests. These seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs) account for over 40% of tropical forests, harbor high biodiversity, have large potential carbon sink due to forest recovery from human disturbance and also play a critical role in global carbon budget and inter-annual variations. Plants in this biome display notably diverse responses to seasonal and inter-annual variations of water availability, especially inter-specific variations in canopy seasonality and biomass growth. Current process-based dynamic vegetation models cannot represent these diversities and are shown to perform poorly on simulating drought responses of tropical forests, calling into question of their ability to accurately simulate future changes in SDTFs. Accumulated field observations, suggest that hydrological niche separation driven by coordinated plant functional traits is associated with plants' performance under drought. Yet, it remains not clear whether the physiology-level hydrological niche separation can explain the ecosystem-level diversity observed in SDTFs. Here, we test the theory with a model-data fusion approach. We implemented a new plant hydrodynamic module that is able to track leaf water potential at sub-daily scale in ED2 model. We further incorporated a hydrological niche separation scheme based on a meta-data analysis of key functional traits in SDTFs. Simulated ecological patterns with and without hydrological niche separation were then compared with remote-sensing and long-term field observations from an SDTF site in Palo Verde, Costa Rica. Using several numerical experiments, we specifically examine the following questions: (i) Whether hydrological niche separation can explain the diversity in canopy seasonality and biomass growth? (ii) How important are the yet uncertain belowground functional traits, especially root profile in determining canopy

  16. Revolution and Evolution: Understanding Dynamism in Military Affairs

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Andrews, Timothy D

    1998-01-01

    .... Different dynamics imply different optimal responses to the challenge of change. To the extent that the term Revolution in Military Affairs can be systematically disaggregated, a better understanding of its resulting components may be possible...

  17. Seasonal Differences in Extinction and Colonization Drive Occupancy Dynamics of an Imperilled Amphibian

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randall, Lea A.; Smith, Des H. V.; Jones, Breana L.; Prescott, David R. C.; Moehrenschlager, Axel

    2015-01-01

    A detailed understanding of the population dynamics of many amphibian species is lacking despite concerns about declining amphibian biodiversity and abundance. This paper explores temporal patterns of occupancy and underlying extinction and colonization dynamics in a regionally imperiled amphibian species, the Northern leopard frog (Lithobates pipiens) in Alberta. Our study contributes to elucidating regional occupancy dynamics at northern latitudes, where climate extremes likely have a profound effect on seasonal occupancy. The primary advantage of our study is its wide geographic scale (60,000 km2) and the use of repeat visual surveys each spring and summer from 2009–2013. We find that occupancy varied more dramatically between seasons than years, with low spring and higher summer occupancy. Between spring and summer, colonization was high and extinction low; inversely, colonization was low and extinction high over the winter. The dynamics of extinction and colonization are complex, making conservation management challenging. Our results reveal that Northern leopard frog occupancy was constant over the last five years and thus there is no evidence of decline or recovery within our study area. Changes to equilibrium occupancy are most sensitive to increasing colonization in the spring or declining extinction in the summer. Therefore, conservation and management efforts should target actions that are likely to increase spring colonization; this could be achieved through translocations or improving the quality or access to breeding habitat. Because summer occupancy is already high, it may be difficult to improve further. Nevertheless, summer extinction could be reduced by predator control, increasing water quality or hydroperiod of wetlands, or increasing the quality or quantity of summer habitat. PMID:25993256

  18. Monthly to seasonal low flow prediction: statistical versus dynamical models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ionita-Scholz, Monica; Klein, Bastian; Meissner, Dennis; Rademacher, Silke

    2016-04-01

    While the societal and economical impacts of floods are well documented and assessable, the impacts of lows flows are less studied and sometimes overlooked. For example, over the western part of Europe, due to intense inland waterway transportation, the economical loses due to low flows are often similar compared to the ones due to floods. In general, the low flow aspect has the tendency to be underestimated by the scientific community. One of the best examples in this respect is the facts that at European level most of the countries have an (early) flood alert system, but in many cases no real information regarding the development, evolution and impacts of droughts. Low flows, occurring during dry periods, may result in several types of problems to society and economy: e.g. lack of water for drinking, irrigation, industrial use and power production, deterioration of water quality, inland waterway transport, agriculture, tourism, issuing and renewing waste disposal permits, and for assessing the impact of prolonged drought on aquatic ecosystems. As such, the ever-increasing demand on water resources calls for better a management, understanding and prediction of the water deficit situation and for more reliable and extended studies regarding the evolution of the low flow situations. In order to find an optimized monthly to seasonal forecast procedure for the German waterways, the Federal Institute of Hydrology (BfG) is exploring multiple approaches at the moment. On the one hand, based on the operational short- to medium-range forecasting chain, existing hydrological models are forced with two different hydro-meteorological inputs: (i) resampled historical meteorology generated by the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction approach and (ii) ensemble (re-) forecasts of ECMWF's global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model, which have to be downscaled and bias corrected before feeding the hydrological models. As a second approach BfG evaluates in cooperation with

  19. Modeling seasonal dynamics of the small fish cohorts in fluctuating freshwater marsh landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jopp, Fred; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Trexler, Joel C.

    2010-01-01

    Small-bodied fishes constitute an important assemblage in many wetlands. In wetlands that dry periodically except for small permanent waterbodies, these fishes are quick to respond to change and can undergo large fluctuations in numbers and biomasses. An important aspect of landscapes that are mixtures of marsh and permanent waterbodies is that high rates of biomass production occur in the marshes during flooding phases, while the permanent waterbodies serve as refuges for many biotic components during the dry phases. The temporal and spatial dynamics of the small fishes are ecologically important, as these fishes provide a crucial food base for higher trophic levels, such as wading birds. We develop a simple model that is analytically tractable, describing the main processes of the spatio-temporal dynamics of a population of small-bodied fish in a seasonal wetland environment, consisting of marsh and permanent waterbodies. The population expands into newly flooded areas during the wet season and contracts during declining water levels in the dry season. If the marsh dries completely during these times (a drydown), the fish need refuge in permanent waterbodies. At least three new and general conclusions arise from the model: (1) there is an optimal rate at which fish should expand into a newly flooding area to maximize population production; (2) there is also a fluctuation amplitude of water level that maximizes fish production, and (3) there is an upper limit on the number of fish that can reach a permanent waterbody during a drydown, no matter how large the marsh surface area is that drains into the waterbody. Because water levels can be manipulated in many wetlands, it is useful to have an understanding of the role of these fluctuations.

  20. Seasonal and annual dynamics of frozen ground, central highland of Iceland, Version 1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This dataset documents a nine-year study to investigate the seasonal and annual dynamics of frozen ground and explore the relationship with environmental factors....

  1. Seasonally-Dynamic Presence-Only Species Distribution Models for a Cryptic Migratory Bat Impacted by Wind Energy Development.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark A Hayes

    Full Text Available Understanding seasonal distribution and movement patterns of animals that migrate long distances is an essential part of monitoring and conserving their populations. Compared to migratory birds and other more conspicuous migrants, we know very little about the movement patterns of many migratory bats. Hoary bats (Lasiurus cinereus, a cryptic, wide-ranging, long-distance migrant, comprise a substantial proportion of the tens to hundreds of thousands of bat fatalities estimated to occur each year at wind turbines in North America. We created seasonally-dynamic species distribution models (SDMs from 2,753 museum occurrence records collected over five decades in North America to better understand the seasonal geographic distributions of hoary bats. We used 5 SDM approaches: logistic regression, multivariate adaptive regression splines, boosted regression trees, random forest, and maximum entropy and consolidated outputs to generate ensemble maps. These maps represent the first formal hypotheses for sex- and season-specific hoary bat distributions. Our results suggest that North American hoary bats winter in regions with relatively long growing seasons where temperatures are moderated by proximity to oceans, and then move to the continental interior for the summer. SDMs suggested that hoary bats are most broadly distributed in autumn-the season when they are most susceptible to mortality from wind turbines; this season contains the greatest overlap between potentially suitable habitat and wind energy facilities. Comparing wind-turbine fatality data to model outputs could test many predictions, such as 'risk from turbines is highest in habitats between hoary bat summering and wintering grounds'. Although future field studies are needed to validate the SDMs, this study generated well-justified and testable hypotheses of hoary bat migration patterns and seasonal distribution.

  2. Seasonally-Dynamic Presence-Only Species Distribution Models for a Cryptic Migratory Bat Impacted by Wind Energy Development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, Mark A; Cryan, Paul M; Wunder, Michael B

    2015-01-01

    Understanding seasonal distribution and movement patterns of animals that migrate long distances is an essential part of monitoring and conserving their populations. Compared to migratory birds and other more conspicuous migrants, we know very little about the movement patterns of many migratory bats. Hoary bats (Lasiurus cinereus), a cryptic, wide-ranging, long-distance migrant, comprise a substantial proportion of the tens to hundreds of thousands of bat fatalities estimated to occur each year at wind turbines in North America. We created seasonally-dynamic species distribution models (SDMs) from 2,753 museum occurrence records collected over five decades in North America to better understand the seasonal geographic distributions of hoary bats. We used 5 SDM approaches: logistic regression, multivariate adaptive regression splines, boosted regression trees, random forest, and maximum entropy and consolidated outputs to generate ensemble maps. These maps represent the first formal hypotheses for sex- and season-specific hoary bat distributions. Our results suggest that North American hoary bats winter in regions with relatively long growing seasons where temperatures are moderated by proximity to oceans, and then move to the continental interior for the summer. SDMs suggested that hoary bats are most broadly distributed in autumn-the season when they are most susceptible to mortality from wind turbines; this season contains the greatest overlap between potentially suitable habitat and wind energy facilities. Comparing wind-turbine fatality data to model outputs could test many predictions, such as 'risk from turbines is highest in habitats between hoary bat summering and wintering grounds'. Although future field studies are needed to validate the SDMs, this study generated well-justified and testable hypotheses of hoary bat migration patterns and seasonal distribution.

  3. Seasonally-dynamic presence-only species distribution models for a cryptic migratory bat impacted by wind energy development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, Mark A.; Cryan, Paul M.; Wunder, Michael B.

    2015-01-01

    Understanding seasonal distribution and movement patterns of animals that migrate long distances is an essential part of monitoring and conserving their populations. Compared to migratory birds and other more conspicuous migrants, we know very little about the movement patterns of many migratory bats. Hoary bats (Lasiurus cinereus), a cryptic, wide-ranging, long-distance migrant, comprise a substantial proportion of the tens to hundreds of thousands of bat fatalities estimated to occur each year at wind turbines in North America. We created seasonally-dynamic species distribution models (SDMs) from 2,753 museum occurrence records collected over five decades in North America to better understand the seasonal geographic distributions of hoary bats. We used 5 SDM approaches: logistic regression, multivariate adaptive regression splines, boosted regression trees, random forest, and maximum entropy and consolidated outputs to generate ensemble maps. These maps represent the first formal hypotheses for sex- and season-specific hoary bat distributions. Our results suggest that North American hoary bats winter in regions with relatively long growing seasons where temperatures are moderated by proximity to oceans, and then move to the continental interior for the summer. SDMs suggested that hoary bats are most broadly distributed in autumn—the season when they are most susceptible to mortality from wind turbines; this season contains the greatest overlap between potentially suitable habitat and wind energy facilities. Comparing wind-turbine fatality data to model outputs could test many predictions, such as ‘risk from turbines is highest in habitats between hoary bat summering and wintering grounds’. Although future field studies are needed to validate the SDMs, this study generated well-justified and testable hypotheses of hoary bat migration patterns and seasonal distribution.

  4. season.

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Makoba bay, there is net flux of water from the bay to the open ocean during wet season. Residual salt fluxes between the bay and the open ocean indicate advective salt export. Exchange of water between the bay with the open ocean plays a role of replacing exported salt via mixing. ..... The human impact on the.

  5. Population dynamic of the swallowtail butterfly, Papilio polytes (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae in dry and wet seasons

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SUWARNO

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Suwarno (2010 Population dynamic of the swallowtail butterfly, Papilio polytes (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae in dry and wet seasons. Biodiversitas 11: 19-23. The population dynamic of Papilio polytes L. (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae in dry and wet seasons was investigated in the citrus orchard in Tasek Gelugor, Pulau Pinang, Malaysia. Population of immature stages of P. polytes was observed alternate day from January to March 2006 (dry season, DS, from April to July 2006 (secondary wet season, SWS, and from October to December 2006 (primary wet season, PWS. The population dynamics of the immature stages of P. polytes varied between seasons. The immature stages of P. polytes are more abundance and significantly different in the PWS than those of the DS and the SWS. The larval densities in all seasons decreased with progressive development of the instar stages. Predators and parasitoids are the main factor in regulating the population abundance of immature stages of P. polytes. There were positive correlations between the abundance of immature stages of P. polytes and their natural enemies abundance in each season. Ooencyrtus papilioni Ashmead (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae is the most egg parasitoid. Oxyopes quadrifasciatus L. Koch. and O. elegans L. Koch. (Araneae: Oxyopidae are the main predators in the young larvae, meanwhile Sycanus dichotomus Stal. (Heteroptera: Reduviidae, Calotes versicolor Fitzinger (Squamata: Agamidae, birds and praying mantis attacked the older larvae.

  6. Demographic processes in a local population: seasonal dynamics of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... differences in daily recruitment and within-patch survival rates. Males were most abundant relative to females early in the season, indicating protandry. Total adult population size was small and showed dramatic variation between the two years, indicating how vulnerable the local population is to demographic extinction.

  7. Seasonal ice dynamics of the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vijay, Saurabh; Khan, Shfaqat Abbas; Simonsen, Sebastian Bjerregaard

    2018-01-01

    /day during 2015-2017. 79 N fluctuates between 3.6 m/day and 4.2 day, while the velocity of SG is less than1 m/day throughout our observation period. All three of them speed up with the onset of surface melt and attain maximum velocity in the middle of the melt season. Afterwards they slowdown and attain...

  8. Chemical Control for Host-Parasitoid Model within the Parasitism Season and Its Complex Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tao Wang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In the present paper, we develop a host-parasitoid model with Holling type II functional response function and chemical control, which can be applied at any time of each parasitism season or pest generation, and focus on addressing the importance of the timing of application pesticide during the parasitism season or pest generation in successful pest control. Firstly, the existence and stability of both the host and parasitoid populations extinction equilibrium and parasitoid-free equilibrium have been investigated. Secondly, the effects of key parameters on the threshold conditions have been discussed in more detail, which shows the importance of pesticide application times on the pest control. Thirdly, the complex dynamics including multiple attractors coexistence, chaotic behavior, and initial sensitivity have been studied by using numerical bifurcation analyses. Finally, the uncertainty and sensitivity of all the parameters on the solutions of both the host and parasitoid populations are investigated, which can help us to determine the key parameters in designing the pest control strategy. The present research can help us to further understand the importance of timings of pesticide application in the pest control and to improve the classical chemical control and to make management decisions.

  9. Do dynamic global vegetation models capture the seasonality of carbon fluxes in the Amazon basin? A data-model intercomparison.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Restrepo-Coupe, Natalia; Levine, Naomi M; Christoffersen, Bradley O; Albert, Loren P; Wu, Jin; Costa, Marcos H; Galbraith, David; Imbuzeiro, Hewlley; Martins, Giordane; da Araujo, Alessandro C; Malhi, Yadvinder S; Zeng, Xubin; Moorcroft, Paul; Saleska, Scott R

    2017-01-01

    To predict forest response to long-term climate change with high confidence requires that dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) be successfully tested against ecosystem response to short-term variations in environmental drivers, including regular seasonal patterns. Here, we used an integrated dataset from four forests in the Brasil flux network, spanning a range of dry-season intensities and lengths, to determine how well four state-of-the-art models (IBIS, ED2, JULES, and CLM3.5) simulated the seasonality of carbon exchanges in Amazonian tropical forests. We found that most DGVMs poorly represented the annual cycle of gross primary productivity (GPP), of photosynthetic capacity (Pc), and of other fluxes and pools. Models simulated consistent dry-season declines in GPP in the equatorial Amazon (Manaus K34, Santarem K67, and Caxiuanã CAX); a contrast to observed GPP increases. Model simulated dry-season GPP reductions were driven by an external environmental factor, 'soil water stress' and consequently by a constant or decreasing photosynthetic infrastructure (Pc), while observed dry-season GPP resulted from a combination of internal biological (leaf-flush and abscission and increased Pc) and environmental (incoming radiation) causes. Moreover, we found models generally overestimated observed seasonal net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and respiration (R e ) at equatorial locations. In contrast, a southern Amazon forest (Jarú RJA) exhibited dry-season declines in GPP and R e consistent with most DGVMs simulations. While water limitation was represented in models and the primary driver of seasonal photosynthesis in southern Amazonia, changes in internal biophysical processes, light-harvesting adaptations (e.g., variations in leaf area index (LAI) and increasing leaf-level assimilation rate related to leaf demography), and allocation lags between leaf and wood, dominated equatorial Amazon carbon flux dynamics and were deficient or absent from current model

  10. Understanding conflict’s dynamics in participatory natural resources management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Idrissou, L.; Aarts, M.N.C.; Leeuwis, C.; Paassen, van A.

    2018-01-01

    This paper investigated conflicts in participatory protected areas management in Benin to better understand their dynamics. This review paper is based on four articles written from three case-studies of conflicts that emerged and evolved in participatory protected areas management in Benin and a

  11. Understanding Learner Agency as a Complex Dynamic System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercer, Sarah

    2011-01-01

    This paper attempts to contribute to a fuller understanding of the nature of language learner agency by considering it as a complex dynamic system. The purpose of the study was to explore detailed situated data to examine to what extent it is feasible to view learner agency through the lens of complexity theory. Data were generated through a…

  12. Learning and Understanding System Stability Using Illustrative Dynamic Texture Examples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Huaping; Xiao, Wei; Zhao, Hongyan; Sun, Fuchun

    2014-01-01

    System stability is a basic concept in courses on dynamic system analysis and control for undergraduate students with computer science backgrounds. Typically, this was taught using a simple simulation example of an inverted pendulum. Unfortunately, many difficult issues arise in the learning and understanding of the concepts of stability,…

  13. Seasonal dynamics of the peroxidation enzymes’ specific activity in Salix alba leaves of the artificial stalks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. F. Kulik

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available Seasonal dynamics of the specific activity of catalase and peroxidase in Salix alba L. leaves collected in the artificial stands along the Shpakova River (Dnipropetrovs’k was studied. The seasonal dependence of oxidoreductases’ specific activity and the reed’s influence on the osier seedlings adaptation were revealed. The importance of the reeds’ stressful influence on the osier seedlings’ adaptive processes is discussed.

  14. Seasonality and comparative dynamics of six childhood infections in pre-vaccination Copenhagen

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Metcalf, C. Jessica E.; Bjørnstad, Ottar N.; Grenfell, Bryan T.

    2009-01-01

    Seasonal variation in infection transmission is a key determinant of epidemic dynamics of acute infections. For measles, the best-understood strongly immunizing directly transmitted childhood infection, the perception is that term-time forcing is the main driver of seasonality in developed countr...... bacterial infections, pertussis, scarlet fever and diphtheria, there is additionally a strong increase in transmission during the late summer before the end of school vacations....

  15. Constraining Parameter Uncertainty in Simulations of Water and Heat Dynamics in Seasonally Frozen Soil Using Limited Observed Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mousong Wu

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Water and energy processes in frozen soils are important for better understanding hydrologic processes and water resources management in cold regions. To investigate the water and energy balance in seasonally frozen soils, CoupModel combined with the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE method was used. Simulation work on water and heat processes in frozen soil in northern China during the 2012/2013 winter was conducted. Ensemble simulations through the Monte Carlo sampling method were generated for uncertainty analysis. Behavioral simulations were selected based on combinations of multiple model performance index criteria with respect to simulated soil water and temperature at four depths (5 cm, 15 cm, 25 cm, and 35 cm. Posterior distributions for parameters related to soil hydraulic, radiation processes, and heat transport indicated that uncertainties in both input and model structures could influence model performance in modeling water and heat processes in seasonally frozen soils. Seasonal courses in water and energy partitioning were obvious during the winter. Within the day-cycle, soil evaporation/condensation and energy distributions were well captured and clarified as an important phenomenon in the dynamics of the energy balance system. The combination of the CoupModel simulations with the uncertainty-based calibration method provides a way of understanding the seasonal courses of hydrology and energy processes in cold regions with limited data. Additional measurements may be used to further reduce the uncertainty of regulating factors during the different stages of freezing–thawing.

  16. Seasonal Dynamics and Distribution of Ticks in Rwanda: Implications for Tick Control Strategy in Rwanda

    OpenAIRE

    Edward Mutandwa; Nshimiyimana Juvenal

    2010-01-01

    The broad objective of this study was to examine the dynamics and seasonal distribution of tick species in Rwanda in three agro-ecological zones namely high altitude (Gishwati), the mid altitude (Huye) and the lower altitude zones (Nyagatare). Ten cows per zone were identified and used for collecting ticks m onthly on a period covering the short dry season and long rainy season from December 2002 to June 2003. These animals were not treated and remained on pasture land. The results revealed t...

  17. Impact of Seasonal Variability in Water, Plant and Soil Nutrient Dynamics in Agroecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pelak, N. F., III; Revelli, R.; Porporato, A. M.

    2017-12-01

    Agroecosystems cover a significant fraction of the Earth's surface, making their water and nutrient cycles a major component of global cycles across spatial and temporal scales. Most agroecosystems experience seasonality via variations in precipitation, temperature, and radiation, in addition to human activities which also occur seasonally, such as fertilization, irrigation, and harvesting. These seasonal drivers interact with the system in complex ways which are often poorly characterized. Crop models, which are widely used for research, decision support, and prediction of crop yields, are among the best tools available to analyze these systems. Though normally constructed as a set of dynamical equations forced by hydroclimatic variability, they are not often analyzed using dynamical systems theory and methods from stochastic ecohydrology. With the goal of developing this viewpoint and thus elucidating the roles of key feedbacks and forcings on system stability and on optimal fertilization and irrigation strategies, we develop a minimal dynamical system which contains the key components of a crop model, coupled to a carbon and nitrogen cycling model, driven by seasonal fluctuations in water and nutrient availability, temperature, and radiation. External drivers include seasonally varying climatic conditions and random rainfall forcing, irrigation and fertilization as well as harvesting. The model is used to analyze the magnitudes and interactions of the effects of seasonality on carbon and nutrient cycles, crop productivity, nutrient export of agroecosystems, and optimal management strategies with reference to productivity, sustainability and profitability. The impact of likely future climate scenarios on these systems is also discussed.

  18. Breeding seasonality and population dynamics of the catfish Schilbe ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Twelve consecutive months length frequency data (N = 6999) and FiSAT software were used in the study of the dynamics of exploited population the catfish Schilbe mystus in the Cross River Nigeria. Variation in monthly mean gonadosmtic index showed two peaks, March and September and this indicates that the species ...

  19. Evaluating seasonal dynamics of bacterial communities in marine fish aquaculture: a preliminary study before applying phage therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, Carla; Salvador, Sara; Arrojado, Cátia; Silva, Yolanda; Santos, Ana L; Cunha, Angela; Gomes, Newton C M; Gomes, Newton; Almeida, Adelaide

    2011-04-01

    The increasing problem of antibiotic resistance in common pathogenic bacteria and the concern about the spreading of antibiotics in the environment bring the need to find new methods to control fish pathogens. Phage therapy represents a potential alternative to antibiotics, but its use in aquaculture requires a detailed understanding of bacterial communities, namely of fish pathogenic bacteria. Therefore, in this study the seasonal dynamics of the overall bacterial communities, microbiological water quality and disease-causing bacteria were followed in a marine aquaculture system of Ria de Aveiro (Portugal). Analysis of the bacterial diversity of the water samples by denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) of 16S rRNA gene fragments indicates that the bacterial community structure varied seasonally, showing a higher complexity during the warm season. The diversity of the main fish pathogenic bacteria, assessed by DGGE targeting the Vibrio genus, showed lower seasonal variation, with new dominating populations appearing mainly in the spring. Bacterial indicators, faecal coliforms and enterococci, enumerated by the filter-membrane method, also varied seasonally. The fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH) results showed that the specific groups of bacteria varied during the study period and that the non-indigenous Enterobactereaceae family was the most abundant group followed by Vibrio and Aeromonas. The seasonal variation detected in terms of density and structure of total and pathogenic bacterial communities demonstrates the need for a careful monitoring of water through the year in order to select the suitable phages to inactivate fish pathogenic bacteria. The spring season seems to be the critical time period when phage therapy should be applied.

  20. Seasonal dynamics of water use efficiency of typical forest and grassland ecosystems in China

    CERN Document Server

    Zhu, Xianjin; Wang, Qiufeng; Hu, Zhongmin; Han, Shijie; Yan, Junhua; Wang, Yanfen; Zhao, Liang

    2014-01-01

    We selected four sites of ChinaFLUX representing four major ecosystem types in China-Changbaishan temperate broad-leaved Korean pine mixed forest (CBS), Dinghushan subtropical evergreen broadleaved forest (DHS), Inner Mongolia temperate steppe (NM), and Haibei alpine shrub-meadow (HBGC)-to study the seasonal dynamics of ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE = GPP/ET, where GPP is gross primary productivity and ET is evapotranspiration) and factors affecting it. Our seasonal dynamics results indicated single-peak variation of WUE in CBS, NM, and HBGC, which were affected by air temperature (Ta) and leaf area index (LAI), through their effects on the partitioning of evapotranspiration (ET) into transpiration (T) (i.e., T/ET). In DHS, WUE was higher at the beginning and the end of the year, and minimum in summer. Ta and soil water content affected the seasonal dynamics of WUE through their effects on GPP/T. Our results indicate that seasonal dynamics of WUE were different because factors affecting the seasonal dyn...

  1. A Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB model to describe Laternula elliptica (King, 1832 seasonal feeding and metabolism.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Agüera

    Full Text Available Antarctic marine organisms are adapted to an extreme environment, characterized by a very low but stable temperature and a strong seasonality in food availability arousing from variations in day length. Ocean organisms are particularly vulnerable to global climate change with some regions being impacted by temperature increase and changes in primary production. Climate change also affects the biotic components of marine ecosystems and has an impact on the distribution and seasonal physiology of Antarctic marine organisms. Knowledge on the impact of climate change in key species is highly important because their performance affects ecosystem functioning. To predict the effects of climate change on marine ecosystems, a holistic understanding of the life history and physiology of Antarctic key species is urgently needed. DEB (Dynamic Energy Budget theory captures the metabolic processes of an organism through its entire life cycle as a function of temperature and food availability. The DEB model is a tool that can be used to model lifetime feeding, growth, reproduction, and their responses to changes in biotic and abiotic conditions. In this study, we estimate the DEB model parameters for the bivalve Laternula elliptica using literature-extracted and field data. The DEB model we present here aims at better understanding the biology of L. elliptica and its levels of adaptation to its habitat with a special focus on food seasonality. The model parameters describe a metabolism specifically adapted to low temperatures, with a low maintenance cost and a high capacity to uptake and mobilise energy, providing this organism with a level of energetic performance matching that of related species from temperate regions. It was also found that L. elliptica has a large energy reserve that allows enduring long periods of starvation. Additionally, we applied DEB parameters to time-series data on biological traits (organism condition, gonad growth to describe the

  2. Understanding dynamics using sensitivity analysis: caveat and solution

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background Parametric sensitivity analysis (PSA) has become one of the most commonly used tools in computational systems biology, in which the sensitivity coefficients are used to study the parametric dependence of biological models. As many of these models describe dynamical behaviour of biological systems, the PSA has subsequently been used to elucidate important cellular processes that regulate this dynamics. However, in this paper, we show that the PSA coefficients are not suitable in inferring the mechanisms by which dynamical behaviour arises and in fact it can even lead to incorrect conclusions. Results A careful interpretation of parametric perturbations used in the PSA is presented here to explain the issue of using this analysis in inferring dynamics. In short, the PSA coefficients quantify the integrated change in the system behaviour due to persistent parametric perturbations, and thus the dynamical information of when a parameter perturbation matters is lost. To get around this issue, we present a new sensitivity analysis based on impulse perturbations on system parameters, which is named impulse parametric sensitivity analysis (iPSA). The inability of PSA and the efficacy of iPSA in revealing mechanistic information of a dynamical system are illustrated using two examples involving switch activation. Conclusions The interpretation of the PSA coefficients of dynamical systems should take into account the persistent nature of parametric perturbations involved in the derivation of this analysis. The application of PSA to identify the controlling mechanism of dynamical behaviour can be misleading. By using impulse perturbations, introduced at different times, the iPSA provides the necessary information to understand how dynamics is achieved, i.e. which parameters are essential and when they become important. PMID:21406095

  3. Estimating dynamic transmission model parameters for seasonal influenza by fitting to age and season-specific influenza-like illness incidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nele Goeyvaerts

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Dynamic transmission models are essential to design and evaluate control strategies for airborne infections. Our objective was to develop a dynamic transmission model for seasonal influenza allowing to evaluate the impact of vaccinating specific age groups on the incidence of infection, disease and mortality. Projections based on such models heavily rely on assumed ‘input’ parameter values. In previous seasonal influenza models, these parameter values were commonly chosen ad hoc, ignoring between-season variability and without formal model validation or sensitivity analyses. We propose to directly estimate the parameters by fitting the model to age-specific influenza-like illness (ILI incidence data over multiple influenza seasons. We used a weighted least squares (WLS criterion to assess model fit and applied our method to Belgian ILI data over six influenza seasons. After exploring parameter importance using symbolic regression, we evaluated a set of candidate models of differing complexity according to the number of season-specific parameters. The transmission parameters (average R0, seasonal amplitude and timing of the seasonal peak, waning rates and the scale factor used for WLS optimization, influenced the fit to the observed ILI incidence the most. Our results demonstrate the importance of between-season variability in influenza transmission and our estimates are in line with the classification of influenza seasons according to intensity and vaccine matching.

  4. Understanding the dynamic ionospheric signature of the plasmapause (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moldwin, M.; Sibanda, P.; Zou, S.; Yizengaw, E.

    2010-12-01

    The equatorial edge of the mid-latitude trough has been shown to be an ionospheric signature of the plasmapause from both ground-based and space-based observations. However, identifying the trough is not always possible due to broad latitudinal density gradients, local time and seasonal effects, and storm and substorm dynamics. We review the current methods of identifying the trough from ground and space-based observations and describe the main deficiencies in these methods especially for tracking the trough/plasmapause during storms and substorms. We discuss the ionospheric signature of plasmaspheric plumes and their relationship to trough/plasmapause signatures. We conclude with some new multi-instrument observations that help clarify the ionospheric trough signature during geomagnetically active periods.

  5. Seasonal dynamics of snail populations in coastal Kenya: Model calibration and snail control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurarie, D.; King, C. H.; Yoon, N.; Wang, X.; Alsallaq, R.

    2017-10-01

    A proper snail population model is important for accurately predicting Schistosoma transmission. Field data shows that the overall snail population and that of shedding snails have a strong pattern of seasonal variation. Because human hosts are infected by the cercariae released from shedding snails, the abundance of the snail population sets ultimate limits on human infection. For developing a predictive dynamic model of schistosome infection and control strategies we need realistic snail population dynamics. Here we propose two such models based on underlying environmental factors and snail population biology. The models consist of two-stage (young-adult) populations with resource-dependent reproduction, survival, maturation. The key input in the system is seasonal rainfall which creates snail habitats and resources (small vegetation). The models were tested, calibrated and validated using dataset collected in Msambweni (coastal Kenya). Seasonal rainfall in Msambweni is highly variable with intermittent wet - dry seasons. Typical snail patterns follow precipitation peaks with 2-4-month time-lag. Our models are able to reproduce such seasonal variability over extended period of time (3-year study). We applied them to explore the optimal seasonal timing for implementing snail control.

  6. Challenges and opportunities for improved understanding of regional climate dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Matthew; Minobe, Shoshiro; Barreiro, Marcelo; Bordoni, Simona; Kaspi, Yohai; Kuwano-Yoshida, Akira; Keenlyside, Noel; Manzini, Elisa; O'Reilly, Christopher H.; Sutton, Rowan; Xie, Shang-Ping; Zolina, Olga

    2018-02-01

    Dynamical processes in the atmosphere and ocean are central to determining the large-scale drivers of regional climate change, yet their predictive understanding is poor. Here, we identify three frontline challenges in climate dynamics where significant progress can be made to inform adaptation: response of storms, blocks and jet streams to external forcing; basin-to-basin and tropical-extratropical teleconnections; and the development of non-linear predictive theory. We highlight opportunities and techniques for making immediate progress in these areas, which critically involve the development of high-resolution coupled model simulations, partial coupling or pacemaker experiments, as well as the development and use of dynamical metrics and exploitation of hierarchies of models.

  7. Toward understanding dynamic annealing processes in irradiated ceramics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Myers, Michael Thomas [Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (United States)

    2013-05-01

    High energy particle irradiation inevitably generates defects in solids. The ballistic formation and thermalization of the defect creation process occur rapidly, and are believed to be reasonably well understood. However, knowledge of the evolution of defects after damage cascade thermalization, referred to as dynamic annealing, is quite limited. Unraveling the mechanisms associated with dynamic annealing is crucial since such processes play an important role in the formation of stable postirradiation disorder in ion-beam-processing of semiconductors, and determines the “radiation tolerance” of many nuclear materials. The purpose of this dissertation is to further our understanding of the processes involved in dynamic annealing. In order to achieve this, two main tasks are undertaken.

  8. Understanding the dynamics of labor shares and inflation

    OpenAIRE

    Karl Whelan; Martina Lawless

    2007-01-01

    Calvo-style models of nominal rigidities currently provide the dominant paradigm for understanding the linkages between wage and price dynamics. Recent empirical implementations stress the idea that these models link inflation to the behavior of the labor share of income. Gali, Gertler, and Lopez-Salido (2001) argue that the model explains the combination of declining inflation and labor shares in euro area. In this paper, we show that with realistic parameters, the canonical Calvo-style mode...

  9. Dynamic complexities in a seasonal prevention epidemic model with birth pulses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gao Shujing; Chen Lansun; Sun Lihua

    2005-01-01

    In most of population dynamics, increases in population due to birth are assumed to be time-dependent, but many species reproduce only during a single period of the year. In this paper, we propose an epidemic model with density-dependent birth pulses and seasonal prevention. Using the discrete dynamical system determined by stroboscopic map, we obtain the local or global stability, numerical simulation shows there is a characteristic sequence of bifurcations, leading to chaotic dynamics, which implies that the dynamical behaviors of the epidemic model with birth pulses and seasonal prevention are very complex, including small amplitude oscillations, large-amplitude multi-annual cycles and chaos. This suggests that birth pulse, in effect, provides a natural period or cyclicity that may lead a period-doubling route to chaos

  10. Vertical and seasonal dynamics of fungal communities in boreal Scots pine forest soil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santalahti, Minna; Sun, Hui; Jumpponen, Ari; Pennanen, Taina; Heinonsalo, Jussi

    2016-11-01

    Fungal communities are important for carbon (C) transformations in boreal forests that are one of the largest C pools in terrestrial ecosystems, warranting thus further investigation of fungal community dynamics in time and space. We investigated fungal diversity and community composition seasonally and across defined soil horizons in boreal Scots pine forest in Finland using 454 pyrosequencing. We collected a total of 120 samples from five vertical soil horizons monthly from March to October; in March, under snow. Boreal forest soil generally harbored diverse fungal communities across soil horizons. The communities shifted drastically and rapidly over time. In late winter, saprotrophs dominated the community and were replaced by ectomycorrhizal fungi during the growing season. Our studies are among the first to dissect the spatial and temporal dynamics in boreal forest ecosystems and highlights the ecological importance of vertically distinct communities and their rapid seasonal dynamics. As climate change is predicted to result in warmer and longer snow-free winter seasons, as well as increase the rooting depth of trees in boreal forest, the seasonal and vertical distribution of fungal communities may change. These changes are likely to affect the organic matter decomposition by the soil-inhabiting fungi and thus alter organic C pools. © FEMS 2016. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  11. Seasonality of gregarine parasitism in the damselfly, Nehalennia irene: understanding unimodal patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forbes, Mark R; Mlynarek, Julia J; Allison, Jane; Hecker, Kerry R

    2012-01-01

    We studied parasitism by gut protozoans (Apicomplexa: Eugregarinidae) in the damselfly, Nehalennia irene (Hagen) (Odonata: Coenagrionidae). We tested whether there was any seasonal pattern, as has been found for other parasites of damselflies and which has implications for selection on emergence and breeding. Using aggregate data from 12 date-by-site comparisons involving five sites, we found that both prevalence and intensity of gregarine parasitism were seasonally unimodal. Parasitism first increased and then declined seasonally after peaking mid-season. This damselfly species has shown seasonal increases in density followed by declines at several sites including a site sampled in this study. Therefore, similar seasonal changes in a directly transmitted parasite were expected and are now confirmed. Other factors that might account for seasonal changes in parasitism by gregarines are either unlikely or can be discounted including sampling of older damselflies mid-season but not late in the season, or sex biases in parasitism and overrepresentation of the more parasitized sex mid-season.

  12. A model of seasonal foliage dynamics of the subtropical mangrove species Rhizophora stylosa Griff. growing at the northern limit of its distribution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sahadev Sharma

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Background Progress of forest production in response to the environment requires a quantitative understanding of leaf area development. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate the dynamics of seasonal crown foliage in order to understand the productivity of mangroves, which play an important role in the subtropical and tropical coastlines of the world. Method Crown foliage dynamics of the mangrove Rhizophora stylosa were studies to reveal patterns of leaf recruitment, survival and seasonal leaf area growth. Results Flushing of leaves occurred throughout the year, but both flushing and leaf area growth pattern of leaves varied with season. Maximum flushing occurred in summer, but leaf areas did not differ significantly with season. The half-expansion period is longer, and the intrinsic rate of increase was lower in winter. Summer flushed leaves grew faster at their initial stage and reached their maximum area over a shorter period of time. The difference in temperature and air vapor pressure deficit (VPD between summer and winter contributed to the present dynamics of foliage patterns. The mean leaf longevity was estimated to be 13.1 month. The crown foliage area was almost stable throughout the year. Conclusions Homeostatic control of the crown foliage area may be accompanied by the existence of ecophysiological mechanisms in R. stylosa. Integrating crown foliage dynamics into forest models represents an important step towards incorporating physiological mechanisms into the models for predicting growth responses to environmental changes and for understanding the complex responses of tree growth and litter production.

  13. Demand for seasonal gas storage in northwest Europe until 2030. Simulation results with a dynamic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Joode, J.; Oezdemir, Oe.

    2010-01-01

    The fact that depletion of indigenous gas production increases gas import dependency is widely known and accepted. However, there is considerable less attention for the implications of indigenous resource depletion for the provision of seasonal flexibility. The traditionally largest source of seasonal flexibility in Europe is indigenous gas production, mainly based in the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. With the depletion of indigenous sources the market increasingly needs to rely on other sources for seasonal flexibility, such as gas storage facilities. We investigate the future need for gas storage as a source for seasonal flexibility provision using a dynamic gas market model (GASTALE) in which different potential sources for seasonal flexibility - gas production, imports via pipeline, LNG imports and storage facilities - compete with each other in a market-based environment. The inclusion of seasonal flexibility properties in a gas market model allows a more complex analysis of seasonal flexibility issues than previously documented in literature. This is demonstrated in an analysis of the future demand for gas storage in northwestern Europe until 2030. Our results indicate that there is substantial need for additional gas storage facilities and thus supports current project proposals for new investment in gas storage facilities. (author)

  14. Diversity in plant hydraulic traits explains seasonal and inter-annual variations of vegetation dynamics in seasonally dry tropical forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Xiangtao; Medvigy, David; Powers, Jennifer S; Becknell, Justin M; Guan, Kaiyu

    2016-10-01

    We assessed whether diversity in plant hydraulic traits can explain the observed diversity in plant responses to water stress in seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs). The Ecosystem Demography model 2 (ED2) was updated with a trait-driven mechanistic plant hydraulic module, as well as novel drought-phenology and plant water stress schemes. Four plant functional types were parameterized on the basis of meta-analysis of plant hydraulic traits. Simulations from both the original and the updated ED2 were evaluated against 5 yr of field data from a Costa Rican SDTF site and remote-sensing data over Central America. The updated model generated realistic plant hydraulic dynamics, such as leaf water potential and stem sap flow. Compared with the original ED2, predictions from our novel trait-driven model matched better with observed growth, phenology and their variations among functional groups. Most notably, the original ED2 produced unrealistically small leaf area index (LAI) and underestimated cumulative leaf litter. Both of these biases were corrected by the updated model. The updated model was also better able to simulate spatial patterns of LAI dynamics in Central America. Plant hydraulic traits are intercorrelated in SDTFs. Mechanistic incorporation of plant hydraulic traits is necessary for the simulation of spatiotemporal patterns of vegetation dynamics in SDTFs in vegetation models. © 2016 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2016 New Phytologist Trust.

  15. Dynamics in Microbial Composition and Functionality over a Season in Two Contrasting Estuarine Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Traving, Sachia; Bentzon-Tilia, Mikkel; Mantikci, Mustafa

    2015-01-01

    In aquatic microbial ecology it remains unclear how bacterial community composition and dynamics are coupled to functionality, and whether this putative coupling varies over the season. In this study we address the questions if bacterial community composition can be linked to community function, ...

  16. Seasonal dynamics of ectomycorrhizal fungus assemblages on oak seedlings in the southeastern Appalachian Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    John F. Walker; Orson K. Jr. Miller; Jonathan L. Horton

    2008-01-01

    The potential for seasonal dynamics in ectomycorrhizal (EM) fungal assemblages has important implications for the ecology of both the host trees and the fungal associates. We compared EM fungus distributions on root systems of out-planted oak seedlings at two sites in mixed southeastern Appalachian Mountain forests at the Coweeta Hydrologic Laboratory in North Carolina...

  17. Linking seasonal surface water dynamics with methane emissions and export from small, forested wetlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hondula, K. L.; Palmer, M.

    2017-12-01

    One of the biggest uncertainties about global methane sources and sinks is attributed to uncertainties regarding wetland area and its dynamics. This is exacerbated by confusion over the role of small, shallow water bodies like Delmarva bay wetlands that could be categorized as both wetlands and ponds. These small inland water bodies are often poorly quantified due to their size, closed forest canopies, and inter- and intra-annual variability in surface water extent. We are studying wetland-rich areas on the Delmarva Peninsula in the U.S. mid-Atlantic to address this uncertainty at the scale of individual wetland ecosystems (chamber measurements spanning from wetland center to upland, in order to quantify the areal extent of the methane emissions source area throughout seasonal changes in surface water inundation (water level 0 to > 1m depth). We estimated the size and temporal variability of the methane emissions source area by combining these measurements with daily estimates of the extent of surface water inundation derived from water level monitoring and a high-resolution digital elevation model. This knowledge is critical for informing land use decisions (e.g. restoring wetlands specifically for climate mitigation), the jurisdiction of environmental policies in the US, and for resolving major outstanding discrepancies in our understanding of the global methane budget.

  18. Ecological energetics of forage fish from the Mediterranean Sea: Seasonal dynamics and interspecific differences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albo-Puigserver, M.; Muñoz, A.; Navarro, J.; Coll, M.; Pethybridge, H.; Sánchez, S.; Palomera, I.

    2017-06-01

    Small and medium pelagic fishes play a central role in marine food webs by transferring energy from plankton to top predators. In this study, direct calorimetry was used to analyze the energy density of seven pelagic species collected over four seasons from the western Mediterranean Sea: anchovy Engraulis encrasicolus, sardine Sardina pilchardus, round sardinella Sardinella aurita, horse mackerels Trachurus trachurus and T. mediterraneus, and mackerels Scomber scombrus and S. colias. Inter-specific differences in energy density were linked to spawning period, energy allocation strategies for reproduction and growth, and feeding ecologies. Energy density of each species varied over time, with the exception of S. colias, likely due to its high energetic requirements related to migration throughout the year. In general, higher energy density was observed in spring for all species, regardless of their breeding strategy, probably as a consequence of the late-winter phytoplankton bloom. These results provide new insights into the temporal availability of energy in the pelagic ecosystem of the Mediterranean Sea, which are pivotal for understanding how the population dynamics of small and medium pelagic fishes and their predators may respond to environmental changes and fishing impacts. In addition, the differences found in energy density between species highlighted the importance of using species specific energy-values in ecosystem assessment tools such as bioenergetic and food web models.

  19. Impact of pollution, climate, and sociodemographic factors on spatiotemporal dynamics of seasonal respiratory viruses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sloan, Chantel; Moore, Martin L; Hartert, Tina

    2011-02-01

    Seasonal viruses present a major cause of morbidity and mortality in temperate climates. Through major pandemics and smaller annual epidemics, viruses such as influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and human rhinovirus (HRV) result in lost school and work days for most that are infected and more serious complications for the immunocompromised. The reasons for these viruses showing strict seasonality include but are not limited to the influence of cold weather and humidity on virus particles, human physiology, and human behavior. The relative importance of each is dependent on what geographic scale is being explored as well as the individual region and time period. Theoretical mathematics has also revealed that climatic changes are likely not the only reasons for strong seasonal cycles, but these are also based in periodic resonance with the natural cycles of immunity and antigenic variance, as well as nationwide synchrony through transportation networks. Investigations of seasonality will aid in understanding disease transmission, and thereby effective prevention strategies. The authors present a review of the literature on seasonal viruses, their annual diffusion through populations, and factors that reduce or enhance their seasonal spread. They also offer suggestions for targeted interventions to reduce the disease burden from seasonal viruses. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  20. Differentiated seasonal vegetation cover dynamics of degraded grasslands in Inner Mongolia recorded by continuous photography technique.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Xiaotian; Liu, Hongyan; Liu, Xu; Song, Zhaoliang; Wang, Wei; Qiu, Shuang

    2017-05-11

    Influence of climate change on the grassland phenology has attracted more and more attentions of ecologists. Although dozens of studies have been conducted, there have been few records examining the phenology differences of grasslands with different plant species compositions. Using continuous photography and image processing methods, this study examined seasonal vegetation cover dynamics of grasslands along a degradation gradient to clarify the influence of vegetation composition on the dynamics of vegetation cover during growing season. Our results revealed that phenological patterns of grasslands differentiated with their degradation status. Abandoned farmland (AF) and severely degraded grassland (SD) with most annuals and least climax species had the earliest start of growing season, while AF and extremely degraded grassland (ED) dominated by grasses had the earliest end of growing season. The start and end of growing season were strongly related to the relative cover of climax species and grasses. The results presented in this study support the possibility of using digital photography to capture the role of plant species composition on vegetation phenology in grasslands.

  1. Periodic matrix models for seasonal dynamics of structured populations with application to a seabird population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cushing, J M; Henson, Shandelle M

    2018-02-03

    For structured populations with an annual breeding season, life-stage interactions and behavioral tactics may occur on a faster time scale than that of population dynamics. Motivated by recent field studies of the effect of rising sea surface temperature (SST) on within-breeding-season behaviors in colonial seabirds, we formulate and analyze a general class of discrete-time matrix models designed to account for changes in behavioral tactics within the breeding season and their dynamic consequences at the population level across breeding seasons. As a specific example, we focus on egg cannibalism and the daily reproductive synchrony observed in seabirds. Using the model, we investigate circumstances under which these life history tactics can be beneficial or non-beneficial at the population level in light of the expected continued rise in SST. Using bifurcation theoretic techniques, we study the nature of non-extinction, seasonal cycles as a function of environmental resource availability as they are created upon destabilization of the extinction state. Of particular interest are backward bifurcations in that they typically create strong Allee effects in population models which, in turn, lead to the benefit of possible (initial condition dependent) survival in adverse environments. We find that positive density effects (component Allee effects) due to increased adult survival from cannibalism and the propensity of females to synchronize daily egg laying can produce a strong Allee effect due to a backward bifurcation.

  2. The complex dynamics of the seasonal component of USA's surface temperature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Vecchio

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available The dynamics of the climate system has been investigated by analyzing the complex seasonal oscillation of monthly averaged temperatures recorded at 1167 stations covering the whole USA. We found the presence of an orbit-climate relationship on time scales remarkably shorter than the Milankovitch period {related to the nutational forcing}. The relationship manifests itself through occasional destabilization of the phase of the seasonal component due to the local changing of balance between direct insolation and the net energy received by the Earth. Quite surprisingly, we found that the local intermittent dynamics is modulated by a periodic component of about 18.6 yr due to the nutation of the Earth, which represents the main modulation of the Earth's precession. The global effect in the last century results in a cumulative phase-shift of about 1.74 days towards earlier seasons, in agreement with the phase shift expected from the Earth's precession. The climate dynamics of the seasonal cycle can be described through a nonlinear circle-map, indicating that the destabilization process can be associated to intermittent transitions from quasi-periodicity to chaos.

  3. Seasonal dynamics of extraradical mycelium and mycorrhizas in a black truffle (Tuber melanosporum) plantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Queralt, Mikel; Parladé, Javier; Pera, Joan; DE Miguel, Ana María

    2017-08-01

    Seasonal dynamics of black truffle (Tuber melanosporum) extraradical mycelium as well as the associated mycorrhizal community have been evaluated in a 16-year-old plantation with productive and non-productive trees. Mycelium biomass was seasonally quantified by real-time PCR over two consecutive years and the correlation with environmental variables explored. Extraradical mycelium biomass varied seasonally and between the two consecutive years, being correlated with the precipitation that occurred 1 month before sampling. In addition, productive trees had more mycelium in the brûlé area than non-productive trees did. The ectomycorrhizal community composition inside the burnt areas was seasonally evaluated during a year. Ten mycorrhizal morphotypes were detected; T. melanosporum was the most abundant in productive and non-productive trees. Black truffle mycorrhizas were more abundant (mycorrhizal tips per unit of soil volume) in productive trees, and no seasonal variation was observed. The occurrence of black truffle mycorrhizas was significantly and positively correlated with the biomass of extraradical mycelium. The mycorrhizal community within the brûlé areas was significantly different between productive and non-productive trees, and no variation was detected between seasons. The assessment of the fungal vegetative structures in a mature plantation is of paramount importance to develop trufficulture methods based on the knowledge of the biological cycle of the fungus and its relationships with the associated ectomycorrhizal communities.

  4. Integrating the social sciences to understand human-water dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carr, G.; Kuil, L., Jr.

    2017-12-01

    Many interesting and exciting socio-hydrological models have been developed in recent years. Such models often aim to capture the dynamic interplay between people and water for a variety of hydrological settings. As such, peoples' behaviours and decisions are brought into the models as drivers of and/or respondents to the hydrological system. To develop and run such models over a sufficiently long time duration to observe how the water-human system evolves the human component is often simplified according to one or two key behaviours, characteristics or decisions (e.g. a decision to move away from a drought or flood area; a decision to pump groundwater, or a decision to plant a less water demanding crop). To simplify the social component, socio-hydrological modellers often pull knowledge and understanding from existing social science theories. This requires them to negotiate complex territory, where social theories may be underdeveloped, contested, dynamically evolving, or case specific and difficult to generalise or upscale. A key question is therefore, how can this process be supported so that the resulting socio-hydrological models adequately describe the system and lead to meaningful understanding of how and why it behaves as it does? Collaborative interdisciplinary research teams that bring together social and natural scientists are likely to be critical. Joint development of the model framework requires specific attention to clarification to expose all underlying assumptions, constructive discussion and negotiation to reach agreement on the modelled system and its boundaries. Mutual benefits to social scientists can be highlighted, i.e. socio-hydrological work can provide insights for further exploring and testing social theories. Collaborative work will also help ensure underlying social theory is made explicit, and may identify ways to include and compare multiple theories. As socio-hydrology progresses towards supporting policy development, approaches that

  5. Chlorophyll Fluorescence Better Captures Seasonal and Interannual Gross Primary Productivity Dynamics Across Dryland Ecosystems of Southwestern North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, W. K.; Biederman, J. A.; Scott, R. L.; Moore, D. J. P.; He, M.; Kimball, J. S.; Yan, D.; Hudson, A.; Barnes, M. L.; MacBean, N.; Fox, A. M.; Litvak, M. E.

    2018-01-01

    Satellite remote sensing provides unmatched spatiotemporal information on vegetation gross primary productivity (GPP). Yet understanding of the relationship between GPP and remote sensing observations and how it changes with factors such as scale, biophysical constraint, and vegetation type remains limited. This knowledge gap is especially apparent for dryland ecosystems, which have characteristic high spatiotemporal variability and are under-represented by long-term field measurements. Here we utilize an eddy covariance (EC) data synthesis for southwestern North America in an assessment of how accurately satellite-derived vegetation proxies capture seasonal to interannual GPP dynamics across dryland gradients. We evaluate the enhanced vegetation index, solar-induced fluorescence (SIF), and the photochemical reflectivity index. We find evidence that SIF is more accurately capturing seasonal GPP dynamics particularly for evergreen-dominated EC sites and more accurately estimating the full magnitude of interannual GPP dynamics for all dryland EC sites. These results suggest that incorporation of SIF could significantly improve satellite-based GPP estimates.

  6. Understanding the Dynamics of EngagingIinteraction in Public Spaces

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dalsgaard, Peter; Dindler, Christian; Halskov, Kim

    We present an analysis of three interactive installations in public spaces, in terms of their support of engagement as an evolving process. In particular, we focus on how engagement unfolds as a dynamic process that may be understood in terms of evolving relations between cultural, physical......, content-related, and social elements of interactive environments. These elements are explored through the literature on engagement with interaction design, and it is argued that, although valuable contributions have been made towards understanding engagement with interactive environments, the ways...

  7. Understanding ion association states and molecular dynamics using infrared spectroscopy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masser, Hanqing

    A molecular level understanding of the ion transport mechanism within polymer electrolytes is crucial to the further development for advanced energy storage applications. This can be achieved by the identification and quantitative measurement of different ion species in the system and further relating them to the ion conductivity. In the first part of this thesis, research is presented towards understanding the ion association states (free ions, ion pairs and ion aggregates) in ionomer systems, and the correlation of ion association states, ion conduction, polymer dynamics, and morphology. Ion conductivity in ionomers can be improved by lowering glass transition temperature, increasing polymer ion solvation ability, and adjusting ionomer structural variables such as ion content, cation type and side chain structure. These effects are studied in three ionomer systems respectively, using a combination of characterization methods. Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR) identifies and quantifies the ion association states. Dielectric Spectroscopy (DRS) characterizes ion conductivity and polymer and ion dynamics. X-ray scattering reveals changes in morphology. The influence of a cation solvating plasticizer on a polyester ionomer is systematically investigated with respect to ion association states, ion and polymer dynamics and morphology. A decrease in the number ratio of ion aggregates with increased plasticizer content and a slight increase at elevated temperature are observed in FTIR. Similar results are also detected by X-ray scattering. As determined from dielectric spectroscopy, ion conductivity increases with plasticizer content, in accordance with the decrease in glass transition temperature. Research on copolymer of poly(ethylene oxide) (PEO) and poly(tetramethylene oxide) (PTMO) based ionomers further develops an understanding of the trade-off between ion solvation and segmental dynamics. Upon the incorporation of PTMO, the majority of the PTMO

  8. Mechanistic understanding of human-wildlife conflict through a novel application of dynamic occupancy models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goswami, Varun R; Medhi, Kamal; Nichols, James D; Oli, Madan K

    2015-08-01

    Crop and livestock depredation by wildlife is a primary driver of human-wildlife conflict, a problem that threatens the coexistence of people and wildlife globally. Understanding mechanisms that underlie depredation patterns holds the key to mitigating conflicts across time and space. However, most studies do not consider imperfect detection and reporting of conflicts, which may lead to incorrect inference regarding its spatiotemporal drivers. We applied dynamic occupancy models to elephant crop depredation data from India between 2005 and 2011 to estimate crop depredation occurrence and model its underlying dynamics as a function of spatiotemporal covariates while accounting for imperfect detection of conflicts. The probability of detecting conflicts was consistently <1.0 and was negatively influenced by distance to roads and elevation gradient, averaging 0.08-0.56 across primary periods (distinct agricultural seasons within each year). The probability of crop depredation occurrence ranged from 0.29 (SE 0.09) to 0.96 (SE 0.04). The probability that sites raided by elephants in primary period t would not be raided in primary period t + 1 varied with elevation gradient in different seasons and was influenced negatively by mean rainfall and village density and positively by distance to forests. Negative effects of rainfall variation and distance to forests best explained variation in the probability that sites not raided by elephants in primary period t would be raided in primary period t + 1. With our novel application of occupancy models, we teased apart the spatiotemporal drivers of conflicts from factors that influence how they are observed, thereby allowing more reliable inference on mechanisms underlying observed conflict patterns. We found that factors associated with increased crop accessibility and availability (e.g., distance to forests and rainfall patterns) were key drivers of elephant crop depredation dynamics. Such an understanding is essential for

  9. Linking seasonal inorganic nitrogen shift to the dynamics of microbial communities in the Chesapeake Bay.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Yiguo; Xu, Xiongrong; Kan, Jinjun; Chen, Feng

    2014-04-01

    Seasonal shifts of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) and the dynamics of microbial communities for nitrogen transformation were investigated in the water column of Chesapeake Bay. The relative abundance of nitrogen over phosphorus (N) showed a strong seasonal and spatial pattern: gradually decreased from upstream to downstream; high in winter and low in summer. Because the phosphorus concentration remained relatively stable, the spatiotemporal pattern of N implied that a substantial fraction of DIN was removed in the bay, especially in summer. Correlation analyses indicated the functional microbial communities and environmental variables, such as temperature, dissolved oxygen, salinity, played important roles for connecting the seasonal variation of N. Among them, temperature was the trigger factor. High temperature in the summer induced the growth of functional microbes, which subsequently consumed a large portion of DIN inputted from the tributaries and reduced the N. The current study provided the relative importance of microbial communities and environmental variables in driving the DIN loss in the bay.

  10. Examining secular trend  and seasonality in count data using dynamic generalized linear modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lundbye-Christensen, Søren; Dethlefsen, Claus; Gorst-Rasmussen, Anders

    Aims  Time series of incidence counts often show secular trends and seasonal patterns. We present a model for incidence counts capable of handling a possible gradual change in growth rates and seasonal patterns, serial correlation and overdispersion. Methods  The model resembles an ordinary time...... series regression model for Poisson counts. It differs in allowing the regression coefficients to vary gradually over time in a random fashion. Data  In the period January 1980 to 1999, 17,989 incidents of acute myocardial infarction were recorded in the county of Northern Jutland, Denmark. Records were...... updated daily. Results  The model with a seasonal pattern and an approximately linear trend was fitted to the data, and diagnostic plots indicate a good model fit. The analysis with the dynamic model revealed peaks coinciding with influenza epidemics. On average the peak-to-trough ratio is estimated...

  11. Dynamical seasonal prediction of summer sea surface temperatures in the Great Barrier Reef

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spillman, C. M.; Alves, O.

    2009-03-01

    Coral bleaching is a serious problem threatening the world coral reef systems, triggered by high sea surface temperatures (SST) which are becoming more prevalent as a result of global warming. Seasonal forecasts from coupled ocean-atmosphere models can be used to predict anomalous SST months in advance. In this study, we assess the ability of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology seasonal forecast model (POAMA) to forecast SST anomalies in the Great Barrier Reef, Australia, with particular focus on the major 1998 and 2002 bleaching events. Advance warning of potential bleaching events allows for the implementation of management strategies to minimise reef damage. This study represents the first attempt to apply a dynamical seasonal model to the problem of coral bleaching and predict SST over a reef system for up to 6 months lead-time, a potentially invaluable tool for reef managers.

  12. Dynamics of a generalized Gause-type predator-prey model with a seasonal functional response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moghadas, S.M.; Alexander, M.E.

    2005-01-01

    We extend a previous Gause-type predator-prey model to include a general monotonic and bounded seasonally varying functional response. The model exhibits rich dynamical behaviour not encountered when the functional response is not seasonally forced. A theoretical analysis is performed on the model to investigate the global stability of the boundary equilibria and the existence of periodic solutions. It is shown that, under certain well-defined conditions, the Poincare map of the model undergoes a Hopf bifurcation leading to the appearance of a quasi-periodic solution. Numerical results are given for the Poincare sections and bifurcation diagrams for Holling-types II and III functional responses, using the amplitude of seasonal variation as bifurcation parameter. The model shows a rich variety of behaviour, including period doubling, quasi-periodicity, chaos, transient chaos, and windows of periodicity

  13. Understanding dynamic friction through spontaneously evolving laboratory earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubino, V; Rosakis, A J; Lapusta, N

    2017-06-29

    Friction plays a key role in how ruptures unzip faults in the Earth's crust and release waves that cause destructive shaking. Yet dynamic friction evolution is one of the biggest uncertainties in earthquake science. Here we report on novel measurements of evolving local friction during spontaneously developing mini-earthquakes in the laboratory, enabled by our ultrahigh speed full-field imaging technique. The technique captures the evolution of displacements, velocities and stresses of dynamic ruptures, whose rupture speed range from sub-Rayleigh to supershear. The observed friction has complex evolution, featuring initial velocity strengthening followed by substantial velocity weakening. Our measurements are consistent with rate-and-state friction formulations supplemented with flash heating but not with widely used slip-weakening friction laws. This study develops a new approach for measuring local evolution of dynamic friction and has important implications for understanding earthquake hazard since laws governing frictional resistance of faults are vital ingredients in physically-based predictive models of the earthquake source.

  14. Seasonal spectral dynamics and carbon fluxes at core EOS sites using EO-1 Hyperion images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lagomasino, D.; Campbell, P.; Price, R. M.

    2010-12-01

    Fluxes of water and carbon into the atmosphere are critical components in order to monitor and predict climate change. Spatial heterogeneity and seasonal changes in vegetation contribute to ambiguities in regional and global CO2 and water cycle dynamics. Satellite remote sensing is essential for monitoring the spatial and temporal dynamics of various vegetation types for the purposes of determining carbon and water fluxes. Satellite data from the EO-1 Hyperion sensor was acquired for five Earth Observing Satellite (EOS) sites, Mongu (Zambia, Africa), Konza Prairie (Kansas, USA), Duke Forest (North Carolina, USA), Barrow (Alaska, USA) and Sevilleta (New Mexico, USA). Each EOS site represented a distinct vegetative ecosystem type; hardwood forest, grassland, evergreen forest, lichens, and shrubland/grassland respectively. Satellite data was atmospherically corrected using the Atmosphere CORrection Now (ACORN) model and subsequently, the spectral reflectance data was extracted in the vicinity of existing flux towers. The EO-1 Hyperion sensor proved advantageous because of its high and continuous spectral resolution (10 nm intervals from 355 to 2578 nm wavelengths). The high spectral resolution allowed us calculate biophysical indices based on specific wavelengths in the electromagnetic spectrum that are associated with alterations in foliar chemistry and plant membrane structure (i.e., vegetation stress) brought upon by many environmental factors. Previous studies have focused on relationships within a specific site or vegetation community. This study however, incorporated many sites with different vegetation types and various geographic locations throughout the world. Monitoring the fluctuations in vegetation stress with contemporaneous environmental conditions and carbon flux measurements from each site will provide better insight into water and carbon flux dynamics in many different biomes. Noticeable spectral signatures were identified based on site specific

  15. Seasonal dynamics of marine litter along the Bulgarian Black Sea coast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simeonova, Anna; Chuturkova, Rozalina; Yaneva, Velika

    2017-06-15

    In this study marine litter (ML) surveys were conducted in 8 beaches along the Bulgarian Black Sea coastline within 4 seasons for 2015-2016. The monitoring applied OSPAR guideline, classifying ML in eight categories and 167 types. The results exhibited predominance of artificial polymer materials - 84.3%. ML densities ranged from 0.0587±0.005 to 0.1343±0.008 n/m 2 , highest on the urban beaches. The seasonal dynamics of most top 10 ML showed highest quantities in summer than the other seasons, as the differences are of high statistical significance (0.001≤P≤0.05). Top 1 ML item for most of the beaches was cigarette butts and filters reaching 1008±10.58 nos. in summer and from 19±3.41 to 89±7.81 nos. during the rest of the seasons (P<0.001). For the pronounced seasonality contributed the recreational activities, increased tourist flow and the wild camping. The investigation will enrich data scarcity for Descriptor 10 "Marine litter". Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Seasonal dynamics in the relative density of aquatic flora along some coastal areas of the Red Sea, Tabuk, Saudi Arabia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abid Ali Ansari

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Plants are the producers of all autotrophic ecosystems’ and are the base of the food chain taking energy from the sun and converting it into food for all other organisms through photosynthesis. Plants grow in certain places and seasons when the environmental factors are suitable for their germination, growth and developments that influence their diversity. Environmental factors can include abiotic factors such as temperature, light, moisture, soil nutrients; or biotic factors like competition from other plants or grazing by animals. Anthropogenic perturbations can also influence distribution patterns. Monitoring of ecological habitats and diversity of some aquatic flora along some coastal areas of Red Sea has been done to understand the dynamics of aquatic plants influenced by prevailing environmental and anthropogenic perturbations The results of this research showed that the summer season is the most suitable period for the study of aquatic plant diversity along the coastal sites of Red Sea. The aquatic flora had high relative density and diversity in April, May, June and July and these four months of the summer season are best for collection of aquatic plants from the selected coastal areas of Red Sea for medicinal purposes and ecological studies.

  17. Monitoring seasonal dynamics of selected harmful algae in the North Sea using molecular methods

    OpenAIRE

    Sprong, Pim; Hessel, Johanna; Hanken, Thomas; Metfies, Katja

    2016-01-01

    Microalgae are the major producers of biomass and organic compounds in the aquatic environment. Among them there are toxic species (mainly dinoflagellates) known to have the potential to form Harmful Algal Blooms, the so called HABs. HABs are occurring more often and at new locations. In general, knowledge about biogeographic distribution of harmful algae in the northern hemisphere is limited and patchy. During this project, we will study the seasonal dynamics of marine protists, with special...

  18. Seasonal Sea Level Cycle Change: Understanding the Possible Climate Feedbacks Over the Gulf of Mexico and the Gulf Stream Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ricko, M.; Ray, R. D.; Beckley, B. D.

    2016-12-01

    Recent change in the seasonal sea level cycle has been observed in satellite radar altimetry record, especially over regions such as the Gulf of Mexico and the Gulf Stream region. Gridded satellite data is in a good agreement with ground tide gauge data that also confirm increased annual amplitude of sea level during most recent years. Data analysis is based on a set of tide gauges, satellite measurements and models. A consistent positive trend in the seasonal sea level cycle during recent years over different regions has been well confirmed (e.g., Wahl et al. 2014, Etcheverry et al. 2015). Over a longer timescale, historical tide gauge data give a neutral or slightly positive trend in the seasonal cycle of sea level along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico. This observed signal of increased seasonal sea level cycle in tide gauges over the coastal areas is extended with satellite observations to open ocean regions. It is most evident during last several years (2007-2015) over most of the Gulf of Mexico, especially over north-eastern and central parts of the Gulf of Mexico, and over the Gulf Stream region, showing mean annual amplitude larger than 15 cm. One part of this increase appears to be due to change in mean sea level pressure. However, main causes of seasonal sea level cycle change on interannual to climate scale have not yet been understood. To determine possible climate feedbacks responsible for observed change in the seasonal sea level cycle, its relationship with parameters such as sea surface temperature, wind curl, circulation, mesoscale eddies, etc., is investigated. Model-based results (e.g., NASA's GMAO model) give similar trend and feedbacks, but with a consistent bias and underestimation of annual amplitude increase. Understanding climate mechanisms responsible for observed seasonal sea level cycle change would offer better prediction of sea level variability on interannual to interdecadal time scales.

  19. Dynamical seasonal ocean forecasts to aid salmon farm management in a climate hotspot

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claire M. Spillman

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Marine aquaculture businesses are subject to a range of environmental conditions that can impact on day to day operations, the health of the farmed species, and overall production. An understanding of future environmental conditions can assist marine resource users plan their activities, minimise risks due to adverse conditions, and maximise opportunities. Short-term farm management is assisted by weather forecasts, but longer term planning may be hampered by an absence of useful climate information at relevant spatial and temporal scales. Here we use dynamical seasonal forecasts to predict water temperatures for south-east Tasmanian Atlantic salmon farm sites several months into the future. High summer temperatures pose a significant risk to production systems of these farms. Based on twenty years of historical validation, the model shows useful skill (i.e., predictive ability for all months of the year at lead-times of 0–1 months. Model skill is highest when forecasting for winter months, and lowest for December and January predictions. The poorer performance in summer may be due to increased variability due to the convergence of several ocean currents offshore from the salmon farming region. Accuracy of probabilistic forecasts exceeds 80% for all months at lead-time 0 months for the upper tercile (warmest 33% of values and exceeds 50% at a lead-time of 3 months. This analysis shows that useful information on future ocean conditions up to several months into the future can be provided for the salmon aquaculture industry in this region. Similar forecasting techniques can be applied to other marine industries such as wild fisheries and pond aquaculture in other regions. This future knowledge will enhance environment-related decision making of marine managers and increase industry resilience to climate variability.

  20. Understanding catchment dynamics through a Space-Society-Water trialectic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutherland, Catherine; Jewitt, Graham; Risko, Susan; Hay, Ducan; Stuart-Hill, Sabine; Browne, Michelle

    2017-04-01

    Can healthy catchments be utilized to secure water for the benefit of society? This is a complex question as it requires an understanding of the connections and relations between biophysical, social, political, economic and governance dimensions over space and time in the catchment and must interrogate whether there is 'value' in investing in the catchment natural or ecological infrastructure (EI), how this should be done, where the most valuable EI is located, and whether an investment in EI will generate co-benefits socially, environmentally and economically. Here, we adopt a social ecological relations rather than systems approach to explore these interactions through development of a space-society-water trialectic. Trialectic thinking is challenging as it requires new epistemologies and it challenges conventional modes of thought. It is not ordered or fixed, but rather is constantly evolving, revealing the dynamic relations between the elements under exploration. The construction of knowledge, through detailed scientific research and social learning, which contributes to the understanding and achievement of sustainable water supply, water related resilient economic growth, greater social equity and justice in relation to water and the reduction of environmental risk is illustrated through research in the uMngeni Catchment, South Africa. Using four case studies as a basis, we construct the catchment level society-water-space trialectic as a way of connecting, assembling and comparing the understanding and knowledge that has been produced. The relations in the three elements of the trialectic are constructed through identifying, understanding and analysing the actors, discourses, knowledge, biophysical materialities, issues and spatial connections in the case studies. Together these relations, or multiple trajectories, are assembled to form the society-water-space trialectic, which illuminates the dominant relations in the catchment and hence reveal the leverage

  1. Understanding the HIV coreceptor switch from a dynamical perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kamp Christel

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The entry of HIV into its target cells is facilitated by the prior binding to the cell surface molecule CD4 and a secondary coreceptor, mostly the chemokine receptors CCR5 or CXCR4. In early infection CCR5-using viruses (R5 viruses are mostly dominant while a receptor switch towards CXCR4 occurs in about 50% of the infected individuals (X4 viruses which is associated with a progression of the disease. There are many hypotheses regarding the underlying dynamics without yet a conclusive understanding. Results While it is difficult to isolate key factors in vivo we have developed a minimal in silico model based on the approaches of Nowak and May to investigate the conditions under which the receptor switch occurs. The model allows to investigate the evolution of viral strains within a probabilistic framework along the three stages of disease from primary and latent infection to the onset of AIDS with a a sudden increase in viral load which goes along with the impairment of the immune response. The model is specifically applied to investigate the evolution of the viral quasispecies in terms of R5 and X4 viruses which directly translates into the composition of viral load and consequently the question of the coreceptor switch. Conclusion The model can explain the coreceptor switch as a result of a dynamical change in the underlying environmental conditions in the host. The emergence of X4 strains does not necessarily result in the dominance of X4 viruses in viral load which is more likely to occur in the model after some time of chronic infection. A better understanding of the conditions leading to the coreceptor switch is especially of interest as CCR5 blockers have recently been licensed as drugs which suppress R5 viruses but do not seem to necessarily induce a coreceptor switch.

  2. Understanding collective dynamics of soft active colloids by binary scattering.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanke, Timo; Weber, Christoph A; Frey, Erwin

    2013-11-01

    Collective motion in actively propelled particle systems is triggered on the very local scale by nucleation of coherently moving units consisting of just a handful of particles. These units grow and merge over time, ending up in a long-range ordered, coherently moving state. So far, there exists no bottom-up understanding of how the microscopic dynamics and interactions between the constituents are related to the system's ordering instability. In this paper, we study a class of models for propelled colloids allowing an explicit treatment of the microscopic details of the collision process. Specifically, the model equations are Newtonian equations of motion with separate force terms for particles' driving, dissipation, and interaction forces. Focusing on dilute particle systems, we analyze the binary scattering behavior for these models and determine-based on the microscopic dynamics-the corresponding "collision rule," i.e., the mapping of precollisional velocities and impact parameter on postcollisional velocities. By studying binary scattering we also find that the considered models for active colloids share the same principle for parallel alignment: The first incoming particle (with respect to the center of collision) is aligned to the second particle as a result of the encounter. This behavior distinctively differs from alignment in nondriven dissipative gases. Moreover, the obtained collision rule lends itself as a starting point to apply kinetic theory for propelled particle systems in order to determine the phase boundary to a long-range ordered, coherently moving state. The microscopic origin of the collision rule offers the opportunity to quantitatively scrutinize the predictions of kinetic theory for propelled particle systems through direct comparison with multiparticle simulations. We identify local precursor correlations at the onset of collective motion to constitute the essential determinant for a qualitative and quantitative validity of kinetic

  3. Nutrient Dynamics of Estuarine Invertebrates Are Shaped by Feeding Guild Rather than Seasonal River Flow.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortega-Cisneros, Kelly; Scharler, Ursula M

    2015-01-01

    This study aimed to determine the variability of carbon and nitrogen elemental content, stoichiometry and diet proportions of invertebrates in two sub-tropical estuaries in South Africa experiencing seasonal changes in rainfall and river inflow. The elemental ratios and stable isotopes of abiotic sources, zooplankton and macrozoobenthos taxa were analyzed over a dry/wet seasonal cycle. Nutrient content (C, N) and stoichiometry of suspended particulate matter exhibited significant spatio-temporal variations in both estuaries, which were explained by the variability in river inflow. Sediment particulate matter (%C, %N and C:N) was also influenced by the variability in river flow but to a lesser extent. The nutrient content and ratios of the analyzed invertebrates did not significantly vary among seasons with the exception of the copepod Pseudodiaptomus spp. (C:N) and the tanaid Apseudes digitalis (%N, C:N). These changes did not track the seasonal variations of the suspended or sediment particulate matter. Our results suggest that invertebrates managed to maintain their stoichiometry independent of the seasonality in river flow. A significant variability in nitrogen content among estuarine invertebrates was recorded, with highest % N recorded from predators and lowest %N from detritivores. Due to the otherwise general lack of seasonal differences in elemental content and stoichiometry, feeding guild was a major factor shaping the nutrient dynamics of the estuarine invertebrates. The nutrient richer suspended particulate matter was the preferred food source over sediment particulate matter for most invertebrate consumers in many, but not all seasons. The most distinct preference for suspended POM as a food source was apparent from the temporarily open/closed system after the estuary had breached, highlighting the importance of river flow as a driver of invertebrate nutrient dynamics under extreme events conditions. Moreover, our data showed that estuarine

  4. Seasonal population dynamics of the invasive polychaete genus Marenzelleria spp. in contrasting soft-sediment habitats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kauppi, L.; Norkko, A.; Norkko, J.

    2018-01-01

    Three species of the invasive polychaete genus Marenzelleria are among the dominant benthic taxa in many, especially deeper, areas in the Baltic Sea. The population dynamics of the polychaetes in the Baltic are, however, still largely unknown. We conducted monthly samplings of the benthic communities and environmental parameters at five sites with differing depths and sediment characteristics in the northern Baltic Sea (59°50.896‧, 23°15.092‧) to study the population dynamics, productivity and growth of Marenzelleria spp. from April 2013 to June 2014. The species of Marenzelleria occurring at the study sites were identified by genetic analyses. At the deepest site (33 m) only M. arctia was present, while all three species were found at the shallower, muddy sites (up to 20 m depth). At the shallow (6 m) sandy site only M. viridis and M. neglecta occurred. The sites differed in the seasonal dynamics of the Marenzelleria spp. population, reflecting the different species identities. The muddy sites up to 20 m depth showed clear seasonal dynamics, with the population practically disappearing by winter, whereas more stable populations occurred at the deepest site and at the sandy site. The highest density, biomass and production were observed at the 20 m deep, organic-rich muddy site where all three species recruited. The seasonally very high densities are likely to have important consequences for organic matter processing, and species interactions at these sites. The observed high productivity of the populations has possibly facilitated their establishment, and considerably increased secondary production in especially the deeper areas.

  5. Understanding the Response of Photosynthetic Metabolism in Tropical Forests to Seasonal Climate Variations. Final Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dye, Dennis [U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA (United States); Ivanov, Valeriy [Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States); Saleska, Scott [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States); Huete, Alfredo [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States); Univ. of Technology, Sydney NSW (Australia)

    2017-03-31

    This U.S-Brazil collaboration for GOAmazon has investigated a deceptively simple question: what controls the response of photosynthesis in Amazon tropical forests to seasonal variations in climate? In the past this question has been difficult to answer with modern earth system process models. We hypothesized that observed dry season increases in photosynthetic capacity are controlled by the phenology of leaf flush and litter fall, from which the seasonal pattern of LAI emerges. Our results confirm this hypothesis (Wu et al., 2016). Synthesis of data collected throughout the 3-year project period continues through December 31, 2017 under no-cost extensions granted to the project teams at University of Michigan and University of Arizona (Award 2). The USGS component (Award 1) ceased on the final date of the project performance period, December 31, 2016. This report summarizes the overall activities and achievements of the project, and constitutes the final project report for the USGS component. The University of Michigan will submit a separate final report that includes additional results and deliverables achieved during the period of their and the University of Arizona’s no-cost extension, which will end on December 31, 2017.

  6. Molecular phenology in plants: in natura systems biology for the comprehensive understanding of seasonal responses under natural environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kudoh, Hiroshi

    2016-04-01

    Phenology refers to the study of seasonal schedules of organisms. Molecular phenology is defined here as the study of the seasonal patterns of organisms captured by molecular biology techniques. The history of molecular phenology is reviewed briefly in relation to advances in the quantification technology of gene expression. High-resolution molecular phenology (HMP) data have enabled us to study phenology with an approach of in natura systems biology. I review recent analyses of FLOWERING LOCUS C (FLC), a temperature-responsive repressor of flowering, along the six steps in the typical flow of in natura systems biology. The extensive studies of the regulation of FLC have made this example a successful case in which a comprehensive understanding of gene functions has been progressing. The FLC-mediated long-term memory of past temperatures creates time lags with other seasonal signals, such as photoperiod and short-term temperature. Major signals that control flowering time have a phase lag between them under natural conditions, and hypothetical phase lag calendars are proposed as mechanisms of season detection in plants. Transcriptomic HMP brings a novel strategy to the study of molecular phenology, because it provides a comprehensive representation of plant functions. I discuss future perspectives of molecular phenology from the standpoints of molecular biology, evolutionary biology and ecology. © 2015 The Author. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.

  7. Seasonal dynamics of threshold friction velocity and dust emission in Central Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xi, Xin; Sokolik, Irina N

    2015-02-27

    An improved model representation of mineral dust cycle is critical to reducing the uncertainty of dust-induced environmental and climatic impact. Here we present a mesoscale model study of the seasonal dust activity in the semiarid drylands of Central Asia, focusing on the effects of wind speed, soil moisture, surface roughness heterogeneity, and vegetation phenology on the threshold friction velocity ( u *t ) and dust emission during the dust season of 1 March to 31 October 2001. The dust model WRF-Chem-DuMo allows us to examine the uncertainties in seasonal dust emissions due to the selection of dust emission scheme and soil grain size distribution data. To account for the vegetation effects on the u *t , we use the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer monthly normalized difference vegetation index to derive the dynamic surface roughness parameters required by the physically based dust schemes of Marticorena and Bergametti (1995, hereinafter MB) and Shao et al. (1996, hereinafter Shao). We find the springtime u *t is strongly enhanced by the roughness effects of temperate steppe and desert ephemeral plants and, to less extent, the binding effects of increased soil moisture. The u *t decreases as the aboveground biomass dies back and soil moisture depletes during summer. The u *t dynamics determines the dust seasonality by causing more summer dust emission, despite a higher frequency of strong winds during spring. Due to the presence of more erodible materials in the saltation diameter range of 60-200 µm, the dry-sieved soil size distribution data lead to eight times more season-total dust emission than the soil texture data, but with minor differences in the temporal distribution. On the other hand, the Shao scheme produces almost the same amount of season-total dust emission as the MB scheme, but with a strong shift toward summer due to the strong sensitivity of the u *t to vegetation. By simply averaging the MB and Shao model experiments, we obtain

  8. Seasonal Dynamics of River Corridor Exchange Across the Continental United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomez-Velez, J. D.; Harvey, J. W.; Scott, D.; Boyer, E. W.; Schmadel, N. M.

    2017-12-01

    River corridors store and convey mass and energy from landscapes to the ocean, altering water quality and ecosystem functioning at the local, reach, and watershed scales. As water moves through river corridors from headwaters streams to coastal estuaries, dynamic exchange between the river channel and its adjacent riparian, floodplain, and hyporheic zones, combined with ponded waters such as lakes and reservoirs, results in the emergence of hot spots and moments for biogeochemical transformations. In this work, we used the model Networks with EXchange and Subsurface Storage (NEXSS) to estimate seasonal variations in river corridor exchange fluxes and residence times along the continental United States. Using a simple routing scheme, we translate these estimates into a cumulative measure of river corridor connectivity at the watershed scale, differentiating the contributions of hyporheic zones, floodplains, and ponded waters. We find that the relative role of these exchange subsystems changes seasonally, driven by the intra-seasonal variability of discharge. In addition, we find that seasonal variations in discharge and the biogeochemical potential of hyporheic zones are out of phase. This behavior results in a significant reduction in hyporheic water quality functions during high flows and emphasizes the potential importance of reconnecting floodplains for managing water quality during seasonal high flows. Physical parameterizations of river corridor processes are critical to model and predict water quality and to sustainably manage water resources under present and future socio-economic and climatic conditions. Parsimonious models like NEXSS can play a key role in the design, implementation, and evaluation of sustainable management practices that target both water quantity and quality at the scale of the nation. This research is a product of the John Wesley Powell Center River Corridor Working Group.

  9. Seasonal dynamics of structure and functional activity of ectomycorrhizal roots of the Siberian fir

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. A. Sizonenko

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of our work was to study seasonal dynamics of the Siberian fir Abies sibirica Ledeb. ectomycorrhizal morpho-anatomical structure, respiration rate and fluorescence. The study was carried out in the bilberry-sphagnum spruce forest in the middle taiga of the Komi Republic, Russia. The morpho-anatomical structure and fluorescence parameters were studied by light and luminescence microscopy. Thin root respiration was studied in intact fine roots in the field using an infrared gas analyzer. 12 subtypes of fungal mantels were revealed in ectomycorrhizal fir roots; their amount and composition demonstrated seasonal dynamic changes. At the beginning vegetation stage, the diversity and proportion of pseudoparenchymatous and double covers were maximal. Plant component of ectomycorrhizae that includes cortical parenchyma and stele had high activity of fluorescence during the entire vegetation period. The dynamics of staining of fungal component (fungal mantel and Hartig net was more contrasting. The highest fluorescence intensity of cortical parenchyma was found in ectomycorrhizae with maximal fungal mantel thickness. High proportion of tannin cells in cortical parenchyma was related with low intensity of fungal mantel and Hartig net fluorescence. During vegetation season, maximal amount of intensively strained ectomycorrhizal elements occurred in July and unstrained – in June and August. Relation between fine roots respiration and an increase of brightly strained ectomycorrhizal structural elements in fir roots was not statistically significant. Root CO2-emission was lower in May and September in comparison with summer months. For respiration rate of fir fine roots we found its strong positive correlation with the litter temperature.

  10. Understanding quantum measurement from the solution of dynamical models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allahverdyan, Armen E.; Balian, Roger; Nieuwenhuizen, Theo M.

    2013-01-01

    The quantum measurement problem, to wit, understanding why a unique outcome is obtained in each individual experiment, is currently tackled by solving models. After an introduction we review the many dynamical models proposed over the years for elucidating quantum measurements. The approaches range from standard quantum theory, relying for instance on quantum statistical mechanics or on decoherence, to quantum–classical methods, to consistent histories and to modifications of the theory. Next, a flexible and rather realistic quantum model is introduced, describing the measurement of the z-component of a spin through interaction with a magnetic memory simulated by a Curie–Weiss magnet, including N≫1 spins weakly coupled to a phonon bath. Initially prepared in a metastable paramagnetic state, it may transit to its up or down ferromagnetic state, triggered by its coupling with the tested spin, so that its magnetization acts as a pointer. A detailed solution of the dynamical equations is worked out, exhibiting several time scales. Conditions on the parameters of the model are found, which ensure that the process satisfies all the features of ideal measurements. Various imperfections of the measurement are discussed, as well as attempts of incompatible measurements. The first steps consist in the solution of the Hamiltonian dynamics for the spin-apparatus density matrix D -hat (t). Its off-diagonal blocks in a basis selected by the spin–pointer coupling, rapidly decay owing to the many degrees of freedom of the pointer. Recurrences are ruled out either by some randomness of that coupling, or by the interaction with the bath. On a longer time scale, the trend towards equilibrium of the magnet produces a final state D -hat (t f ) that involves correlations between the system and the indications of the pointer, thus ensuring registration. Although D -hat (t f ) has the form expected for ideal measurements, it only describes a large set of runs. Individual runs are

  11. Understanding quantum measurement from the solution of dynamical models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Allahverdyan, Armen E. [Laboratoire de Physique Statistique et Systèmes Complexes, ISMANS, 44 Av. Bartholdi, 72000 Le Mans (France); Balian, Roger [Institut de Physique Théorique, CEA Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette cedex (France); Nieuwenhuizen, Theo M., E-mail: T.M.Nieuwenhuizen@uva.nl [Center for Cosmology and Particle Physics, New York University, 4 Washington Place, New York, NY 10003 (United States)

    2013-04-15

    The quantum measurement problem, to wit, understanding why a unique outcome is obtained in each individual experiment, is currently tackled by solving models. After an introduction we review the many dynamical models proposed over the years for elucidating quantum measurements. The approaches range from standard quantum theory, relying for instance on quantum statistical mechanics or on decoherence, to quantum–classical methods, to consistent histories and to modifications of the theory. Next, a flexible and rather realistic quantum model is introduced, describing the measurement of the z-component of a spin through interaction with a magnetic memory simulated by a Curie–Weiss magnet, including N≫1 spins weakly coupled to a phonon bath. Initially prepared in a metastable paramagnetic state, it may transit to its up or down ferromagnetic state, triggered by its coupling with the tested spin, so that its magnetization acts as a pointer. A detailed solution of the dynamical equations is worked out, exhibiting several time scales. Conditions on the parameters of the model are found, which ensure that the process satisfies all the features of ideal measurements. Various imperfections of the measurement are discussed, as well as attempts of incompatible measurements. The first steps consist in the solution of the Hamiltonian dynamics for the spin-apparatus density matrix D{sup -hat} (t). Its off-diagonal blocks in a basis selected by the spin–pointer coupling, rapidly decay owing to the many degrees of freedom of the pointer. Recurrences are ruled out either by some randomness of that coupling, or by the interaction with the bath. On a longer time scale, the trend towards equilibrium of the magnet produces a final state D{sup -hat} (t{sub f}) that involves correlations between the system and the indications of the pointer, thus ensuring registration. Although D{sup -hat} (t{sub f}) has the form expected for ideal measurements, it only describes a large set of

  12. Dynamics of modified Leslie-Gower-type prey-predator model with seasonally varying parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gakkhar, Sunita; Singh, Brahampal

    2006-01-01

    A modified Leslie-Gower-type prey-predator model composed of a logistic prey with Holling's type II functional response is studied. The axial point (1, 0) is found to be globally asymptotically stable in a domain. Condition for stability of the non-trivial equilibrium point is obtained. The existence of stable limit cycle of the system is also established. The analysis for Hopf bifurcation is carried out. The numerical simulations are carried out to study the effects of seasonally varying parameters of the model. The system shows the rich dynamic behavior including bifurcation and chaos

  13. Seasonal Dynamics of Haptophytes and dsDNA Algal Viruses Suggest Complex Virus-Host Relationship.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johannessen, Torill Vik; Larsen, Aud; Bratbak, Gunnar; Pagarete, António; Edvardsen, Bente; Egge, Elianne D; Sandaa, Ruth-Anne

    2017-04-20

    Viruses influence the ecology and diversity of phytoplankton in the ocean. Most studies of phytoplankton host-virus interactions have focused on bloom-forming species like Emiliania huxleyi or Phaeocystis spp. The role of viruses infecting phytoplankton that do not form conspicuous blooms have received less attention. Here we explore the dynamics of phytoplankton and algal viruses over several sequential seasons, with a focus on the ubiquitous and diverse phytoplankton division Haptophyta, and their double-stranded DNA viruses, potentially with the capacity to infect the haptophytes. Viral and phytoplankton abundance and diversity showed recurrent seasonal changes, mainly explained by hydrographic conditions. By 454 tag-sequencing we revealed 93 unique haptophyte operational taxonomic units (OTUs), with seasonal changes in abundance. Sixty-one unique viral OTUs, representing Megaviridae and Phycodnaviridae , showed only distant relationship with currently isolated algal viruses. Haptophyte and virus community composition and diversity varied substantially throughout the year, but in an uncoordinated manner. A minority of the viral OTUs were highly abundant at specific time-points, indicating a boom-bust relationship with their host. Most of the viral OTUs were very persistent, which may represent viruses that coexist with their hosts, or able to exploit several host species.

  14. Understanding the dynamics of water availability and use in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thomas, R.P.; Conrad, S.H.; Jeppesen, D.M.; Engi, E.

    1997-07-01

    This report presents the preliminary results of an analysis of China`s water resources, part of an effort undertaken by the National Intelligence Council Medea scientists to improve the understanding of future food production and consumption in the People`s Republic of China. A dynamic water model was developed to simulate the hydrological budgetary processes in five river drainage basins located in northeastern, central, and southern China: the Chang Jiang (Yangtse River), Huanghe (Yellow River), Haihe, Huaihe, and Liaohe. The model was designed to assess the effects of changes in urban, industrial, and agricultural water use requirements on the availability of water in each basin and to develop estimates of the water surpluses and/or deficits in China through the year 2025. The model imposes a sustainable yield constraint, that is, groundwater extraction is not allowed to exceed the sustainable yield; if the available water does not meet the total water use requirements, a deficit results. An agronomic model was also developed to generate projections of the water required to service China`s agricultural sector and compare China`s projected grain production with projected grain consumption requirements to estimate any grain surplus and/or deficit. In future refinements, the agronomic model will interface directly with the water model to provide for the exchange of information on projected water use requirements and available water. The preliminary results indicate that the Chang Jiang basin will have a substantial surplus of water through 2025 and that the Haihe basin is in an ongoing situation. The agricultural water use requirements based on grain production indicate that an agricultural water deficit in the Haihe basin begins before the onset of the modeling period (1980) and steadily worsens through 2025. This assumption is confirmed by reports that groundwater mining is already under way in the most intensely cultivated and populated areas of northern China.

  15. Understanding dynamic changes in live cell adhesion with neutron reflectometry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junghans, Ann

    Understanding the structure and functionality of biological systems on a nanometer-resolution and short temporal scales is important for solving complex biological problems, developing innovative treatment, and advancing the design of highly functionalized biomimetic materials. For example, adhesion of cells to an underlying substrate plays a crucial role in physiology and disease development, and has been investigated with great interest for several decades. In the talk, we would like to highlight recent advances in utilizing neutron scattering to study bio-related structures in dynamic conditions (e . g . under the shear flow) including in-situ investigations of the interfacial properties of living cells. The strength of neutron reflectometry is its non-pertubative nature, the ability to probe buried interfaces with nanometer resolution and its sensitivity to light elements like hydrogen and carbon. That allows us to study details of cell - substrate interfaces that are not accessible with any other standard techniques. We studied the adhesion of human brain tumor cells (U251) to quartz substrates and their responses to the external mechanical forces. Such cells are isolated within the central nervous system which makes them difficult to reach with conventional therapies and therefore making them highly invasive. Our results reveal changes in the thickness and composition of the adhesion layer (a layer between the cell lipid membrane and the quartz substrate), largely composed of hyaluronic acid and associated proteoglycans, when the cells were subjected to shear stress. Further studies will allow us to determine more conditions triggering changes in the composition of the bio-material in the adhesion layer. This, in turn, can help to identify changes that correlate with tumor invasiveness, which can have significant medical impact for the development of targeted anti-invasive therapies.

  16. Fostering High School Students' Conceptual Understandings About Seasons: The Design of a Technology-enhanced Learning Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, Ying-Shao; Wu, Hsin-Kai; Hwang, Fu-Kwun

    2008-03-01

    The purpose of this study is to understand in what ways a technology-enhanced learning (TEL) environment supports learning about the causes of the seasons. The environment was designed to engage students in five cognitive phases: Contextualisation, Sense making, Exploration, Modeling, and Application. Seventy-five high school students participated in this study and multiple sources of data were collected to investigate students’ conceptual understandings and the interactions between the design of the environment and students’ alternative conceptions. The findings show that the number of alternative conceptions held by students were reduced except for the incorrect concepts of “the length of sunshine” and “the distance between the sun and the earth.” The percentage of partial explanations held by students was also reduced from 60.5 to 55.3% and the percentage of students holding complete scientific explanations after using Lesson Seasons rose from 2.6 to 15.8%. While some students succeeded in modeling their science concepts closely to the expert’s concepts, some failed to do so after the invention. The unsuccessful students could not remediate their alternative conceptions without explicit guidance and scaffolding. Future research can then be focused on understanding how to provide proper scaffoldings for removing some alternative concepts which are highly resistant to change.

  17. Understanding Seasonal Variability in thin Cirrus Clouds from Continuous MPLNET Observations at GSFC in 2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lolli Simone

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Optically thin cirrus cloud (optical depth < 0.3 net radiative forcing represents one of the primary uncertainties in climate feedback, as sub-visible clouds play a fundamental role in atmospheric radiation balance and climate change. A lidar is a very sensitive optical device to detect clouds with an optical depth as low as 10−4. In this paper we assess the daytime net radiative forcing of subvisible cirrus clouds detected at Goddard Space Flight Center, a permanent observational site of the NASA Micro Pulse Lidar Network in 2012. Depending on their height, season and hour of the day, the solar albedo effect can outweigh the infrared greenhouse effect, cooling the earthatmosphere system rather than warming it exclusively. As result, based on latitude, the net forcing of sub-visible cirrus clouds can be more accurately parameterized in climate models.

  18. Seasonal Synchronization of a Simple Stochastic Dynamical Model Capturing El Niño Diversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thual, S.; Majda, A.; Chen, N.

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has significant impact on global climate and seasonal prediction. Recently, a simple ENSO model was developed that automatically captures the ENSO diversity and intermittency in nature, where state-dependent stochastic wind bursts and nonlinear advection of sea surface temperature (SST) are coupled to simple ocean-atmosphere processes that are otherwise deterministic, linear and stable. In the present article, it is further shown that the model can reproduce qualitatively the ENSO synchronization (or phase-locking) to the seasonal cycle in nature. This goal is achieved by incorporating a cloud radiative feedback that is derived naturally from the model's atmosphere dynamics with no ad-hoc assumptions and accounts in simple fashion for the marked seasonal variations of convective activity and cloud cover in the eastern Pacific. In particular, the weak convective response to SSTs in boreal fall favors the eastern Pacific warming that triggers El Niño events while the increased convective activity and cloud cover during the following spring contributes to the shutdown of those events by blocking incoming shortwave solar radiations. In addition to simulating the ENSO diversity with realistic non-Gaussian statistics in different Niño regions, both the eastern Pacific moderate and super El Niño, the central Pacific El Niño as well as La Niña show a realistic chronology with a tendency to peak in boreal winter as well as decreased predictability in spring consistent with the persistence barrier in nature. The incorporation of other possible seasonal feedbacks in the model is also documented for completeness.

  19. Seasonal dynamics of ectomycorrhizal fungus assemblages on oak seedlings in the southeastern Appalachian Mountains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, John F; Miller, Orson K; Horton, Jonathan L

    2008-03-01

    The potential for seasonal dynamics in ectomycorrhizal (EM) fungal assemblages has important implications for the ecology of both the host trees and the fungal associates. We compared EM fungus distributions on root systems of out-planted oak seedlings at two sites in mixed southeastern Appalachian Mountain forests at the Coweeta Hydrologic Laboratory in North Carolina, from samples taken in mid-July and early September. Species level EM fungus type specificity, and identification in some cases, was enabled by direct sequencing of the mycobionts from the seedling roots. Seventy-four EM fungal ITS types were documented, most of which occurred only in the midsummer or early-fall samples, respectively. Cenococcum geophilum (morphotyped) was ubiquitously present and accounted for the majority of root tips sampled. Abundance and relative frequency of types other than C. geophilum were significantly higher in the July samples, while C. geophilum was significantly more frequent and abundant in September. Several generalistic dominants were found fairly equally at both sites and on both sample dates. Other taxa with relatively high frequency were recovered from both sites and tree seedling species, but were reliable indicators occurring primarily in the July sample (e.g., Laccaria cf laccata). Notable shifts in mycobiont dominance were apparent in relation to sample date, including increases in Cortinarius spp. richness, decreases in Thelephoraceae richness, and the disappearance of Amanita spp. types in the early fall compared to midsummer samples. However, diversity and rarity were high and differences in overall community composition (other than C. geophilum) by season were not significant based on multi-response permutation procedures. Although these results based on a single growing season are preliminary, changes in abundance and frequency, detection of significant indicator species, and the apparent systematic affinities of shifting EM types support the potential

  20. Dynamics of the Water Circulations in the Southern South China Sea and Its Seasonal Transports

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ooi, See Hai; Samah, Azizan Abu; Akbari, Abolghasem

    2016-01-01

    A three-dimensional Regional Ocean Modeling System is used to study the seasonal water circulations and transports of the Southern South China Sea. The simulated seasonal water circulations and estimated transports show consistency with observations, e.g., satellite altimeter data set and re-analysis data of the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation. It is found that the seasonal water circulations are mainly driven by the monsoonal wind stress and influenced by the water outflow/inflow and associated currents of the entire South China Sea. The intrusion of the strong current along the East Coast of Peninsular Malaysia and the eddies at different depths in all seasons are due to the conservation of the potential vorticity as the depth increases. Results show that the water circulation patterns in the northern part of the East Coast of Peninsular Malaysia are generally dominated by the geostrophic currents while those in the southern areas are due solely to the wind stress because of negligible Coriolis force there. This study clearly shows that individual surface freshwater flux (evaporation minus precipitation) controls the sea salinity balance in the Southern South China Sea thermohaline circulations. Analysis of climatological data from a high resolution Regional Ocean Modeling System reveals that the complex bathymetry is important not only for water exchange through the Southern South China Sea but also in regulating various transports across the main passages in the Southern South China Sea, namely the Sunda Shelf and the Strait of Malacca. Apart from the above, in comparision with the dynamics of the Sunda Shelf, the Strait of Malacca reflects an equally significant role in the annual transports into the Andaman Sea. PMID:27410682

  1. Dynamics of the Water Circulations in the Southern South China Sea and Its Seasonal Transports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daryabor, Farshid; Ooi, See Hai; Samah, Azizan Abu; Akbari, Abolghasem

    2016-01-01

    A three-dimensional Regional Ocean Modeling System is used to study the seasonal water circulations and transports of the Southern South China Sea. The simulated seasonal water circulations and estimated transports show consistency with observations, e.g., satellite altimeter data set and re-analysis data of the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation. It is found that the seasonal water circulations are mainly driven by the monsoonal wind stress and influenced by the water outflow/inflow and associated currents of the entire South China Sea. The intrusion of the strong current along the East Coast of Peninsular Malaysia and the eddies at different depths in all seasons are due to the conservation of the potential vorticity as the depth increases. Results show that the water circulation patterns in the northern part of the East Coast of Peninsular Malaysia are generally dominated by the geostrophic currents while those in the southern areas are due solely to the wind stress because of negligible Coriolis force there. This study clearly shows that individual surface freshwater flux (evaporation minus precipitation) controls the sea salinity balance in the Southern South China Sea thermohaline circulations. Analysis of climatological data from a high resolution Regional Ocean Modeling System reveals that the complex bathymetry is important not only for water exchange through the Southern South China Sea but also in regulating various transports across the main passages in the Southern South China Sea, namely the Sunda Shelf and the Strait of Malacca. Apart from the above, in comparision with the dynamics of the Sunda Shelf, the Strait of Malacca reflects an equally significant role in the annual transports into the Andaman Sea.

  2. Dynamics of the Water Circulations in the Southern South China Sea and Its Seasonal Transports.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farshid Daryabor

    Full Text Available A three-dimensional Regional Ocean Modeling System is used to study the seasonal water circulations and transports of the Southern South China Sea. The simulated seasonal water circulations and estimated transports show consistency with observations, e.g., satellite altimeter data set and re-analysis data of the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation. It is found that the seasonal water circulations are mainly driven by the monsoonal wind stress and influenced by the water outflow/inflow and associated currents of the entire South China Sea. The intrusion of the strong current along the East Coast of Peninsular Malaysia and the eddies at different depths in all seasons are due to the conservation of the potential vorticity as the depth increases. Results show that the water circulation patterns in the northern part of the East Coast of Peninsular Malaysia are generally dominated by the geostrophic currents while those in the southern areas are due solely to the wind stress because of negligible Coriolis force there. This study clearly shows that individual surface freshwater flux (evaporation minus precipitation controls the sea salinity balance in the Southern South China Sea thermohaline circulations. Analysis of climatological data from a high resolution Regional Ocean Modeling System reveals that the complex bathymetry is important not only for water exchange through the Southern South China Sea but also in regulating various transports across the main passages in the Southern South China Sea, namely the Sunda Shelf and the Strait of Malacca. Apart from the above, in comparision with the dynamics of the Sunda Shelf, the Strait of Malacca reflects an equally significant role in the annual transports into the Andaman Sea.

  3. Seasonal population dynamics of Eisenia fetida (Savigny, 1826) (Oligochaeta, Lumbricidae) in the field.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monroy, Fernando; Aira, Manuel; Domínguez, Jorge; Velando, Alberto

    2006-11-01

    In order to assess the response of epigeic earthworms to seasonal changes we monitored the population dynamics of Eisenia fetida (Oligochaeta, Lumbricidae) in a manure heap in the field during a year. Earthworms were hand-sorted from five 0.25 x 0.25 x 0.20 m blocks around the heap in November (autumn) 1999 and in January (winter), April (spring) and August (summer) 2000 to determine earthworm population dynamics. Earthworms of each block were classified into different age classes: mature, preclitellate, juvenile, hatchling and cocoon, and afterwards counted and weighed. Seasonality had a strong effect on the density, biomass and reproductive activity of the population. The population of E. fetida was characterized by a high density of individuals and the predominance of mature individuals throughout the year. Maximum density, mating activity and size of cocoons were achieved in spring, but there were not changes in the number of cocoons per mature earthworm throughout the year. Unexpectedly, the smallest cocoons were produced in winter by the largest individuals. These results suggest that E. fetida is able to allocate resources to growth and/or reproduction in response to environmental fluctuations.

  4. Seasonal leaf dynamics across a tree density gradient in a Brazilian savanna.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffmann, William A; da Silva, Edson Rangel; Machado, Gustavo C; Bucci, Sandra J; Scholz, Fabian G; Goldstein, Guillermo; Meinzer, Frederick C

    2005-09-01

    Interactions between trees and grasses that influence leaf area index (LAI) have important consequences for savanna ecosystem processes through their controls on water, carbon, and energy fluxes as well as fire regimes. We measured LAI, of the groundlayer (herbaceous and woody plants 1-m tall), in the Brazilian cerrado over a range of tree densities from open shrub savanna to closed woodland through the annual cycle. During the dry season, soil water potential was strongly and positively correlated with grass LAI, and less strongly with tree and shrub LAI. By the end of the dry season, LAI of grasses, groundlayer dicots and trees declined to 28, 60, and 68% of mean wet-season values, respectively. We compared the data to remotely sensed vegetation indices, finding that field measurements were more strongly correlated to the enhanced vegetation index (EVI, r (2)=0.71) than to the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI, r (2)=0.49). Although the latter has been more widely used in quantifying leaf dynamics of tropical savannas, EVI appears better suited for this purpose. Our ground-based measurements demonstrate that groundlayer LAI declines with increasing tree density across sites, with savanna grasses being excluded at a tree LAI of approximately 3.3. LAI averaged 4.2 in nearby gallery (riparian) forest, so savanna grasses were absent, thereby greatly reducing fire risk and permitting survival of fire-sensitive forest tree species. Although edaphic conditions may partly explain the larger tree LAI of forests, relative to savanna, biological differences between savanna and forest tree species play an important role. Overall, forest tree species had 48% greater LAI than congeneric savanna trees under similar growing conditions. Savanna and forest species play distinct roles in the structure and dynamics of savanna-forest boundaries, contributing to the differences in fire regimes, microclimate, and nutrient cycling between savanna and forest ecosystems.

  5. Dynamics of phreatophyte root growth relative to a seasonally fluctuating water table in a Mediterranean-type environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canham, Caroline A; Froend, Raymond H; Stock, William D; Davies, Muriel

    2012-12-01

    While seasonal redistribution of fine root biomass in response to fluctuations in groundwater level is often inferred in phreatophytic plants, few studies have observed the in situ growth dynamics of deep roots relative to those near the surface. We investigated the root growth dynamics of two Banksia species accessing a seasonally dynamic water table and hypothesized that root growth phenology varied with depth, i.e. root growth closest to the water table would be influenced by water table dynamics rather than surface micro-climate. Root in-growth bags were used to observe the dynamics of root growth at different soil depths and above-ground growth was also assessed to identify whole-plant growth phenology. Root growth at shallow depths was found to be in synchrony with above-ground growth phenophases, following increases in ambient temperature and soil water content. In contrast, root growth at depth was either constant or suppressed by saturation. Root growth above the water table and within the capillary fringe occurred in all seasons, corresponding with consistent water availability and aerobic conditions. However, at the water table, a seasonal cycle of root elongation with drawdown in summer followed by trimming in response to water table rise and saturation in winter, was observed. The ability to grow roots year-round at the capillary fringe and redistribute fine root biomass in response to groundwater drawdown is considered critical in allowing phreatophytes, in seasonally water-limited environments, to maintain access to groundwater throughout the year.

  6. Ocean time-series reveals recurring seasonal patterns of virioplankton dynamics in the northwestern Sargasso Sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parsons, Rachel J; Breitbart, Mya; Lomas, Michael W; Carlson, Craig A

    2012-02-01

    There are an estimated 10(30) virioplankton in the world oceans, the majority of which are phages (viruses that infect bacteria). Marine phages encompass enormous genetic diversity, affect biogeochemical cycling of elements, and partially control aspects of prokaryotic production and diversity. Despite their importance, there is a paucity of data describing virioplankton distributions over time and depth in oceanic systems. A decade of high-resolution time-series data collected from the upper 300 m in the northwestern Sargasso Sea revealed recurring temporal and vertical patterns of virioplankton abundance in unprecedented detail. An annual virioplankton maximum developed between 60 and 100 m during periods of summer stratification and eroded during winter convective mixing. The timing and vertical positioning of this seasonal pattern was related to variability in water column stability and the dynamics of specific picophytoplankton and heterotrophic bacterioplankton lineages. Between 60 and 100 m, virioplankton abundance was negatively correlated to the dominant heterotrophic bacterioplankton lineage SAR11, as well as the less abundant picophytoplankton, Synechococcus. In contrast, virioplankton abundance was positively correlated to the dominant picophytoplankton lineage Prochlorococcus, and the less abundant alpha-proteobacteria, Rhodobacteraceae. Seasonally, virioplankton abundances were highly synchronous with Prochlorococcus distributions and the virioplankton to Prochlorococcus ratio remained remarkably constant during periods of water column stratification. The data suggest that a significant fraction of viruses in the mid-euphotic zone of the subtropical gyres may be cyanophages and patterns in their abundance are largely determined by Prochlorococcus dynamics in response to water column stability. This high-resolution, decadal survey of virioplankton abundance provides insight into the possible controls of virioplankton dynamics in the open ocean.

  7. Ocean time-series reveals recurring seasonal patterns of virioplankton dynamics in the northwestern Sargasso Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parsons, Rachel J; Breitbart, Mya; Lomas, Michael W; Carlson, Craig A

    2012-01-01

    There are an estimated 1030 virioplankton in the world oceans, the majority of which are phages (viruses that infect bacteria). Marine phages encompass enormous genetic diversity, affect biogeochemical cycling of elements, and partially control aspects of prokaryotic production and diversity. Despite their importance, there is a paucity of data describing virioplankton distributions over time and depth in oceanic systems. A decade of high-resolution time-series data collected from the upper 300 m in the northwestern Sargasso Sea revealed recurring temporal and vertical patterns of virioplankton abundance in unprecedented detail. An annual virioplankton maximum developed between 60 and 100 m during periods of summer stratification and eroded during winter convective mixing. The timing and vertical positioning of this seasonal pattern was related to variability in water column stability and the dynamics of specific picophytoplankton and heterotrophic bacterioplankton lineages. Between 60 and 100 m, virioplankton abundance was negatively correlated to the dominant heterotrophic bacterioplankton lineage SAR11, as well as the less abundant picophytoplankton, Synechococcus. In contrast, virioplankton abundance was positively correlated to the dominant picophytoplankton lineage Prochlorococcus, and the less abundant alpha-proteobacteria, Rhodobacteraceae. Seasonally, virioplankton abundances were highly synchronous with Prochlorococcus distributions and the virioplankton to Prochlorococcus ratio remained remarkably constant during periods of water column stratification. The data suggest that a significant fraction of viruses in the mid-euphotic zone of the subtropical gyres may be cyanophages and patterns in their abundance are largely determined by Prochlorococcus dynamics in response to water column stability. This high-resolution, decadal survey of virioplankton abundance provides insight into the possible controls of virioplankton dynamics in the open ocean

  8. Seasonality in cholera dynamics : a rainfall-driven model explains the wide range of patterns of an infectious disease in endemic areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baracchini, Theo; Pascual, Mercedes; King, Aaron A.; Bouma, Menno J.; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Rinaldo, Andrea

    2015-04-01

    An explanation for the spatial variability of seasonal cholera patterns has remained an unresolved problem in tropical medicine te{pascual_2002}. Previous studies addressing the role of climate drivers in disease dynamics have focused on interannual variability and modelled seasonality as given te{king_nature}. Explanations for seasonality have relied on complex environmental interactions that vary with spatial location (involving regional hydrological models te{bertuzzo_2012}, river discharge, sea surface temperature, and plankton blooms). Thus, no simple and unified theory based on local climate variables has been formulated te{emch_2008}, leaving our understanding of seasonal variations of cholera outbreaks in different regions of the world incomplete. Through the analysis of a unique historical dataset containing 50 years of monthly meteorological, demographic and epidemiological records, we propose a mechanistic, SIR-based stochastic model for the population dynamics of cholera driven by local rainfall and temperature that is able to capture the full range of seasonal patterns in this large estuarine region, which encompasses the variety of patterns worldwide. Parameter inference was implemented via new statistical methods that allow the computation of maximum-likelihood estimates for partially observed Markov processes through sequential Monte-Carlo te{ionides_2011}. Such a model may provide a unprecedented opportunity to gain insights on the conditions and factors responsible for endemicity around the globe, and therefore, to also revise our understanding of the ecology of Vibrio cholerae. Results indicate that the hydrological regime is a decisive driver determining the seasonal dynamics of cholera. It was found that rainfall and longer water residence times tend to buffer the propagation of the disease in wet regions due to a dilution effect, while also enhancing cholera incidence in dry regions. This indicates that overall water levels matter and appear

  9. Improved understanding of drought controls on seasonal variation in Mediterranean forest canopy CO2 and water fluxes through combined in situ measurements and ecosystem modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Sabate

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Water stress is a defining characteristic of Mediterranean ecosystems, and is likely to become more severe in the coming decades. Simulation models are key tools for making predictions, but our current understanding of how soil moisture controls ecosystem functioning is not sufficient to adequately constrain parameterisations. Canopy-scale flux data from four forest ecosystems with Mediterranean-type climates were used in order to analyse the physiological controls on carbon and water flues through the year. Significant non-stomatal limitations on photosynthesis were detected, along with lesser changes in the conductance-assimilation relationship. New model parameterisations were derived and implemented in two contrasting modelling approaches. The effectiveness of two models, one a dynamic global vegetation model ("ORCHIDEE", and the other a forest growth model particularly developed for Mediterranean simulations ("GOTILWA+", was assessed and modelled canopy responses to seasonal changes in soil moisture were analysed in comparison with in situ flux measurements. In contrast to commonly held assumptions, we find that changing the ratio of conductance to assimilation under natural, seasonally-developing, soil moisture stress is not sufficient to reproduce forest canopy CO2 and water fluxes. However, accurate predictions of both CO2 and water fluxes under all soil moisture levels encountered in the field are obtained if photosynthetic capacity is assumed to vary with soil moisture. This new parameterisation has important consequences for simulated responses of carbon and water fluxes to seasonal soil moisture stress, and should greatly improve our ability to anticipate future impacts of climate changes on the functioning of ecosystems in Mediterranean-type climates.

  10. Facilitating Understanding of Movements in Dynamic Visualizations: An Embodied Perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B.B. de Koning (Björn); H.K. Tabbers (Huib)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractLearners studying mechanical or technical processes via dynamic visualizations often fail to build an accurate mental representation of the system's movements. Based on embodied theories of cognition assuming that action, perception, and cognition are closely intertwined, this paper

  11. Understanding positivity within dynamic team interactions: A statistical discourse analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Lehmann-Willenbrock, N.K.; Chiu, M.M.; Lei, Z.; Kauffeld, S.

    2017-01-01

    Positivity has been heralded for its individual benefits. However, how positivity dynamically unfolds within the temporal flow of team interactions remains unclear. This is an important oversight, as positivity can be key to team problem solving and performance. In this study, we examine how team micro-processes affect the likelihood of positivity occurring within dynamic team interactions. In doing so, we build on and expand previous work on individual positivity and integrate theory on temp...

  12. The Role of Stream Water Carbon Dynamics and Export in the Carbon Balance of a Tropical Seasonal Rainforest, Southwest China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Wen-Jun; Zhang, Yi-Ping; Schaefer, Douglas A.; Sha, Li-Qing; Deng, Yun; Deng, Xiao-Bao; Dai, Kai-Jie

    2013-01-01

    A two-year study (2009 ∼ 2010) was carried out to investigate the dynamics of different carbon (C) forms, and the role of stream export in the C balance of a 23.4-ha headwater catchment in a tropical seasonal rainforest at Xishuangbanna (XSBN), southwest China. The seasonal volumetric weighted mean (VWM) concentrations of total inorganic C (TIC) and dissolved inorganic C (DIC) were higher, and particulate inorganic C (PIC) and organic C (POC) were lower, in the dry season than the rainy season, while the VWM concentrations of total organic C (TOC) and dissolved organic C (DOC) were similar between seasons. With increased monthly stream discharge and stream water temperature (SWT), only TIC and DIC concentrations decreased significantly. The most important C form in stream export was DIC, accounting for 51.8% of the total C (TC) export; DOC, POC, and PIC accounted for 21.8%, 14.9%, and 11.5% of the TC export, respectively. Dynamics of C flux were closely related to stream discharge, with the greatest export during the rainy season. C export in the headwater stream was 47.1 kg C ha−1 yr−1, about 2.85% of the annual net ecosystem exchange. This finding indicates that stream export represented a minor contribution to the C balance in this tropical seasonal rainforest. PMID:23437195

  13. The role of stream water carbon dynamics and export in the carbon balance of a tropical seasonal rainforest, southwest China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen-Jun Zhou

    Full Text Available A two-year study (2009 ~ 2010 was carried out to investigate the dynamics of different carbon (C forms, and the role of stream export in the C balance of a 23.4-ha headwater catchment in a tropical seasonal rainforest at Xishuangbanna (XSBN, southwest China. The seasonal volumetric weighted mean (VWM concentrations of total inorganic C (TIC and dissolved inorganic C (DIC were higher, and particulate inorganic C (PIC and organic C (POC were lower, in the dry season than the rainy season, while the VWM concentrations of total organic C (TOC and dissolved organic C (DOC were similar between seasons. With increased monthly stream discharge and stream water temperature (SWT, only TIC and DIC concentrations decreased significantly. The most important C form in stream export was DIC, accounting for 51.8% of the total C (TC export; DOC, POC, and PIC accounted for 21.8%, 14.9%, and 11.5% of the TC export, respectively. Dynamics of C flux were closely related to stream discharge, with the greatest export during the rainy season. C export in the headwater stream was 47.1 kg C ha(-1 yr(-1, about 2.85% of the annual net ecosystem exchange. This finding indicates that stream export represented a minor contribution to the C balance in this tropical seasonal rainforest.

  14. Seasonal Dynamics of Phlebotomine Sand Fly Species Proven Vectors of Mediterranean Leishmaniasis Caused by Leishmania infantum.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bulent Alten

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The recent geographical expansion of phlebotomine vectors of Leishmania infantum in the Mediterranean subregion has been attributed to ongoing climate changes. At these latitudes, the activity of sand flies is typically seasonal; because seasonal phenomena are also sensitive to general variations in climate, current phenological data sets can provide a baseline for continuing investigations on sand fly population dynamics that may impact on future scenarios of leishmaniasis transmission. With this aim, in 2011-2013 a consortium of partners from eight Mediterranean countries carried out entomological investigations in sites where L. infantum transmission was recently reported.A common protocol for sand fly collection included monthly captures by CDC light traps, complemented by sticky traps in most of the sites. Collections were replicated for more than one season in order to reduce the effects of local weather events. In each site, the trapping effort was left unchanged throughout the survey to legitimate inter-seasonal comparisons. Data from 99,000 collected specimens were analyzed, resulting in the description of seasonal dynamics of 56,000 sand flies belonging to L. infantum vector species throughout a wide geographical area, namely P. perniciosus (Portugal, Spain and Italy, P. ariasi (France, P. neglectus (Greece, P. tobbi (Cyprus and Turkey, P. balcanicus and P. kandelakii (Georgia. Time of sand fly appearance/disappearance in collections differed between sites, and seasonal densities showed variations in each site. Significant correlations were found between latitude/mean annual temperature of sites and i the first month of sand fly appearance, that ranged from early April to the first half of June; ii the type of density trend, varying from a single peak in July/August to multiple peaks increasing in magnitude from May through September. A 3-modal trend, recorded for P. tobbi in Cyprus, represents a novel finding for a L. infantum vector

  15. Seasonal Dynamics of Phlebotomine Sand Fly Species Proven Vectors of Mediterranean Leishmaniasis Caused by Leishmania infantum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alten, Bulent; Maia, Carla; Afonso, Maria Odete; Campino, Lenea; Jiménez, Maribel; González, Estela; Molina, Ricardo; Bañuls, Anne Laure; Prudhomme, Jorian; Vergnes, Baptiste; Toty, Celine; Cassan, Cécile; Rahola, Nil; Thierry, Magali; Sereno, Denis; Bongiorno, Gioia; Bianchi, Riccardo; Khoury, Cristina; Tsirigotakis, Nikolaos; Dokianakis, Emmanouil; Antoniou, Maria; Christodoulou, Vasiliki; Mazeris, Apostolos; Karakus, Mehmet; Ozbel, Yusuf; Arserim, Suha K; Erisoz Kasap, Ozge; Gunay, Filiz; Oguz, Gizem; Kaynas, Sinan; Tsertsvadze, Nikoloz; Tskhvaradze, Lamzira; Giorgobiani, Ekaterina; Gramiccia, Marina; Volf, Petr; Gradoni, Luigi

    2016-02-01

    The recent geographical expansion of phlebotomine vectors of Leishmania infantum in the Mediterranean subregion has been attributed to ongoing climate changes. At these latitudes, the activity of sand flies is typically seasonal; because seasonal phenomena are also sensitive to general variations in climate, current phenological data sets can provide a baseline for continuing investigations on sand fly population dynamics that may impact on future scenarios of leishmaniasis transmission. With this aim, in 2011-2013 a consortium of partners from eight Mediterranean countries carried out entomological investigations in sites where L. infantum transmission was recently reported. A common protocol for sand fly collection included monthly captures by CDC light traps, complemented by sticky traps in most of the sites. Collections were replicated for more than one season in order to reduce the effects of local weather events. In each site, the trapping effort was left unchanged throughout the survey to legitimate inter-seasonal comparisons. Data from 99,000 collected specimens were analyzed, resulting in the description of seasonal dynamics of 56,000 sand flies belonging to L. infantum vector species throughout a wide geographical area, namely P. perniciosus (Portugal, Spain and Italy), P. ariasi (France), P. neglectus (Greece), P. tobbi (Cyprus and Turkey), P. balcanicus and P. kandelakii (Georgia). Time of sand fly appearance/disappearance in collections differed between sites, and seasonal densities showed variations in each site. Significant correlations were found between latitude/mean annual temperature of sites and i) the first month of sand fly appearance, that ranged from early April to the first half of June; ii) the type of density trend, varying from a single peak in July/August to multiple peaks increasing in magnitude from May through September. A 3-modal trend, recorded for P. tobbi in Cyprus, represents a novel finding for a L. infantum vector. Adults

  16. Molecular Approaches to Understanding C & N Dynamics in MArine Sediments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arturo Massol; James Tiedje; Jizhong Zhou; Allan Devol

    2007-05-16

    Continental margin sediments constitute only about 10% of the total sediment surface area in the world’s oceans, nevertheless they are the dominant sites of nitrogen (N) cycling. Recent studies suggest that the oceanic nitrogen budget is unbalanced, primarily due to a higher nitrogen removal rate in contrast to the fixation rate, and it has been suggested that denitrification activity contributes significantly to this imbalance. Although denitrification in marine environments has been studied intensively at the process level, little is known about the species abundance, composition, distribution, and functional differences of the denitrifying population. Understanding the diversity of microbial populations in marine environments, their responses to various environmental factors such as NO3-, and how this impact the rate of denitrification is critical to predict global N dynamics. Environmental Microbiology has the prompt to study the influence of each microbial population on a biogeochemical process within a given ecosystem. Culture-dependent and –independent techniques using nucleic acid probes can access the identity and activity of cultured and uncultured microorganisms. Nucleic acid probes can target distintict genes which set phylogenetic relationships, such as rDNA 16S, DNA gyrase (gyrB) and RNA polymerase sigma 70 factor (rpoD). In the other hand, the genetic capabilities and their expression could be tracked using probes that target several functional genes, such as nirS, nirK, nosZ, and nifH, which are genes involved in denitrification. Selective detection of cells actively expressing functional genes within a community using In Situ Reverse Transcription-PCR (ISRT-PCR) could become a powerful culture-independent technique in microbial ecology. Here we describe an approach to study the expression of nirS genes in denitrifying bacteria. Pure cultures of Pseudomonas stutzeri and Paracoccus denitrificans, as well as co-cultures with non

  17. Seasonal dynamics of ichthyodiversity in a hill stream of the Darjeeling Himalaya, West Bengal, india

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.L. Acharjee

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The small torrential spring-fed hill-stream Relli in the Darjeeling Himalaya of West Bengal was studied from March 2007 to February 2009 to assess seasonal dynamics and diversity of fish populations.  The study revealed that the stream sustained 25 rheophilic cold water fish species from 15 genera and five families having ornamental, food and sport value.  Seven omnivorous species were abundantly found, and the array of juveniles and sub adults suggests this stream is used as a breeding and nursery ground for some species.  The stream harboured fish with unique modifications such as adhesive structures.  Analysis of monthly data indicate that abundance and diversity indices increased slightly during April–May and sharply during October–November, indicating significant seasonal variations with the low diversity observed during monsoon months reflecting environmental stresses.  Evenness was high in all sampling sites, and inversely related to the dominance index of ichthyofauna.  The density and diversity of fish assemblages along the gradient of the stream may be interrupted due to anthropogenic disturbances.  Our study provides baseline data which may be helpful for conservation and management of fish species, and in formulating fishery policy. 

  18. The Effect of Seasonal Weather Variation on the Dynamics of the Plague Disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rigobert C. Ngeleja

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Plague is a historic disease which is also known to be the most devastating disease that ever occurred in human history, caused by gram-negative bacteria known as Yersinia pestis. The disease is mostly affected by variations of weather conditions as it disturbs the normal behavior of main plague disease transmission agents, namely, human beings, rodents, fleas, and pathogens, in the environment. This in turn changes the way they interact with each other and ultimately leads to a periodic transmission of plague disease. In this paper, we formulate a periodic epidemic model system by incorporating seasonal transmission rate in order to study the effect of seasonal weather variation on the dynamics of plague disease. We compute the basic reproduction number of a proposed model. We then use numerical simulation to illustrate the effect of different weather dependent parameters on the basic reproduction number. We are able to deduce that infection rate, progression rates from primary forms of plague disease to more severe forms of plague disease, and the infectious flea abundance affect, to a large extent, the number of bubonic, septicemic, and pneumonic plague infective agents. We recommend that it is more reasonable to consider these factors that have been shown to have a significant effect on RT for effective control strategies.

  19. Persistence, Seasonal Dynamics and Pathogenic Potential of Vibrio Communities from Pacific Oyster Hemolymph

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wendling, Carolin C.; Batista, Frederico M.; Wegner, K. Mathias

    2014-01-01

    Bacteria of the genus Vibrio occur at a continuum from free-living to symbiotic life forms, including opportunists and pathogens, that can contribute to severe diseases, for instance summer mortality events of Pacific oysters Crassostrea gigas. While most studies focused on Vibrio isolated from moribund oysters during mortality outbreaks, investigations of the Vibrio community in healthy oysters are rare. Therefore, we characterized the persistence, diversity, seasonal dynamics, and pathogenicity of the Vibrio community isolated from healthy Pacific oysters. In a reciprocal transplant experiment we repeatedly sampled hemolymph from adult Pacific oysters to differentiate population from site-specific effects during six months of in situ incubation in the field. We characterized virulence phenotypes and genomic diversity based on multilocus sequence typing in a total of 70 Vibrio strains. Based on controlled infection experiments we could show that strains with the ability to colonize healthy adult oysters can also have the potential to induce high mortality rates on larvae. Diversity and abundance of Vibrio varied significantly over time with highest values during and after spawning season. Vibrio communities from transplanted and stationary oysters converged over time, indicating that communities were not population specific, but rather assemble from the surrounding environment forming communities, some of which can persist over longer periods. PMID:24728233

  20. Annual dynamics of North Sea bacterioplankton: seasonal variability superimposes short-term variation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucas, Judith; Wichels, Antje; Teeling, Hanno; Chafee, Meghan; Scharfe, Mirco; Gerdts, Gunnar

    2015-09-01

    The dynamics of coastal marine microbial communities are driven by seasonally changing abiotic and biotic factors as well as by rapidly occurring short-term changes such as river fresh water influxes or phytoplankton blooms. We examined the variability of the free-living bacterioplankton at Helgoland Roads (German Bight, North Sea) over a period of one year with high temporal and taxonomic resolution to reveal variation patterns and main influencing factors. 16S rRNA gene tag sequencing of the bacterioplankton community hints at annual recurrence and resilience of few main taxa belonging to Alphaproteobacteria, Betaproteobacteria, Flavobacteriia, Acidimicrobiia and Thermoplasmata. Multiple regression analyses with various environmental factors revealed changes in water current patterns and resulting phytoplankton blooms as the main driving factors for short-term variation and temperature as the overlying factor for seasonal variation. Comparison of bacterioplankton successions during spring and summer phytoplankton blooms revealed the same dominating Flavobacteriia operational taxonomic units (OTUs) but shifts in Roseobacter related OTUs (Alphaproteobacteria) and SAR92 clade members (Gammaproteobacteria). Network analysis suggests that during spring and summer phytoplankton blooms temperature-dependent guilds are formed. In conclusion, our data imply that short-term bacterioplankton successions in response to phytoplankton blooms are indirectly affected by temperature, which is a major niche-defining factor in the German Bight. © FEMS 2015. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  1. Structure, seasonal dynamics and distribution of zooplankton in lake Drukshiai in 1994

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazheikaite, S.; Pashkauskas, R.

    1995-01-01

    Investigations on the zooplankton of Lake Drukshiai were carried out in 1994. There were registered 62 taxons of protozoa and 50 taxons of metazoa, and compared with the data of 1979 - 1986 the diversity of species composition decreased 2.1 times. Eurytermic and stenothermic thermophylic species prevailed in the plankton biocenosis. In protozooplankton dominated ciliates of subclasses teolotricha and spirotricha, in metazooplankton -planctonic crustacea (Copopeda and Cladocera). Rotifers (Rotaria) were abundant only in the shallow and heated water outlet area. Seasonal dynamics of protozooplankton indicated one maximum in spring and metazooplankton - in summer. High diferentiation in quantity and biomass of zooplankton in the lake revealed different level of eutrophication of some areas. (author). 7 refs., 5 figs

  2. Seasonal dynamics of the tick Haemaphysalis tibetensis in the Tibetan Plateau, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, M; Li, T; Yu, Z J; Qiu, Z X; Yan, P; Li, Y; Liu, J

    2017-12-01

    The tick Haemaphysalis tibetensis (Acari: Ixodidae) Hoogstraal is an important arthropod vector widespread in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and knowledge of its seasonal dynamics is still poor. The current study investigated the seasonal dynamics of the parasitic and non-parasitic H. tibetensis over a 2-year period from March 2014 to February 2016 in the Tibetan Plateau, China. During this timeframe, non-parasitic ticks were collected weekly by flag-dragging in grassland and shrubland areas, and parasitic ticks were removed weekly from selected sheep. Plateau pikas were captured using traps and examined for immature ticks between May to September 2014. Results suggest that non-parasitic H. tibetensis were mainly distributed in the grassland, and the parasitic adults and nymphs were found mostly on sheep. Larvae were usually found on Plateau pikas and the prevalence of infestation and mean parasitic intensity were 72.1 and 1.81%, respectively. Adults were observed from March to July with the major peak occurring in mid-April. Nymphs were found from March to August and reached a peak in late June. Larvae were collected from April to September, and their numbers peaked in late May. In the parasitic and non-parasitic period, the overall sex ratio of males to females was 1.62 and 1.30, respectively. Results show that H. tibetensis can complete one generation per year, with a population overlap between stages over the spring-summer months. These findings provide additional information on the biology and ecology of H. tibetensis as well as insights on its control in the environment and on sheep. © 2017 The Royal Entomological Society.

  3. Seasonal variations of phytoplankton dynamics in Nunatsiavut fjords (Labrador, Canada) and their relationships with environmental conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simo-Matchim, Armelle-Galine; Gosselin, Michel; Blais, Marjolaine; Gratton, Yves; Tremblay, Jean-Éric

    2016-04-01

    We assessed phytoplankton dynamics and its environmental control in four Labrador fjords (Nachvak, Saglek, Okak, and Anaktalak) during summer, early fall and late fall. Primary production and chlorophyll a (chl a) biomass were measured at seven optical depths, including the depth of subsurface chl a maximum (SCM). Phytoplankton abundance, size structure and taxonomy were determined at the SCM. Principal component analysis and non-metric multidimensional scaling were used to analyze relationships between production, biomass and community composition in relation to environmental variables. We observed a marked seasonal variability, with significant differences in phytoplankton structure and function between summer and fall. Surprisingly, primary production and chl a biomass were not significantly different from one fjord to another. The highest values of primary production (1730 mg C m- 2 day- 1) and chl a biomass (96 mg chl a m- 2) were measured during the summer bloom, and those high values indicate that Labrador fjords are highly productive ecosystems. The summer community showed relatively high abundance of nanophytoplankton (2-20 μm) while the fall community was characterized by low primary production and chl a biomass as well as relatively high abundance of picophytoplankton (< 2 μm). The low value of carbon potentially exported out of the euphotic zone throughout the study (≤ 31% of total primary production) suggests that phytoplankton production was mainly grazed by microzooplankton rather than being exported to greater depths. We observed a mixed assemblage of diatoms and flagellates in summer, whereas the fall community was largely dominated by flagellates. Seasonal variations in phytoplankton dynamics were mainly controlled by the strength of the vertical stratification and by the large differences in day length due to the northerly location of Labrador fjords. This study documents for the very first time phytoplankton structure and function in

  4. Understanding positivity within dynamic team interactions: A statistical discourse analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lehmann-Willenbrock, N.K.; Chiu, M.M.; Lei, Z.; Kauffeld, S.

    2017-01-01

    Positivity has been heralded for its individual benefits. However, how positivity dynamically unfolds within the temporal flow of team interactions remains unclear. This is an important oversight, as positivity can be key to team problem solving and performance. In this study, we examine how team

  5. Understanding ecohydrological connectivity in savannas: A system dynamics modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ecohydrological connectivity is a system-level property that results from the linkages in the networks of water transport through ecosystems, by which feedback effects and other emergent system behaviors may be generated. We created a systems dynamic model that represents primary ecohydrological net...

  6. Dynamic Reaction Figures: An Integrative Vehicle for Understanding Chemical Reactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultz, Emeric

    2008-01-01

    A highly flexible learning tool, referred to as a dynamic reaction figure, is described. Application of these figures can (i) yield the correct chemical equation by simply following a set of menu driven directions; (ii) present the underlying "mechanism" in chemical reactions; and (iii) help to solve quantitative problems in a number of different…

  7. Exploiting Fast-Variables to Understand Population Dynamics and Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Constable, George W. A.; McKane, Alan J.

    2017-11-01

    We describe a continuous-time modelling framework for biological population dynamics that accounts for demographic noise. In the spirit of the methodology used by statistical physicists, transitions between the states of the system are caused by individual events while the dynamics are described in terms of the time-evolution of a probability density function. In general, the application of the diffusion approximation still leaves a description that is quite complex. However, in many biological applications one or more of the processes happen slowly relative to the system's other processes, and the dynamics can be approximated as occurring within a slow low-dimensional subspace. We review these time-scale separation arguments and analyse the more simple stochastic dynamics that result in a number of cases. We stress that it is important to retain the demographic noise derived in this way, and emphasise this point by showing that it can alter the direction of selection compared to the prediction made from an analysis of the corresponding deterministic model.

  8. Understanding Positivity Within Dynamic Team Interactions : A statistical discourse analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lehmann-Willenbrock, N.; Chiu, Ming Ming; Lei, Zhike; Kauffeld, Simone

    2017-01-01

    Positivity has been heralded for its individual benefits. However, how positivity dynamically unfolds within the temporal flow of team interactions remains unclear. This is an important oversight, as positivity can be key to team problem solving and performance. In this study, we examine how team

  9. Variability of breath condensate pH may contribute to the better understanding of non-allergic seasonal respiratory diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kullmann, Tamás; Szipőcs, Annamária

    2017-09-01

    The seasonal variability of certain non-allergic respiratory diseases is not clearly understood. Analysis of the breath condensate, the liquid that can be collected by breathing into a cold tube, has been proposed to bring closer to the understanding of airway pathologies. It has been assumed, that (1) airway lining fluid was a stable body liquid and (2) the breath condensate samples were representative of the airway lining fluid. Research was focussed on the identification of biomarkers indicative of respiratory pathologies. Despite 30 years of extended investigations breath condensate analysis has not gained any clinical implementation so far. The pH of the condensate is the characteristic that can be determined with the highest reproducibility. The present paper shows, that contrary to the initial assumptions, breath condensate is not a representative of the airway lining fluid, and the airway lining fluid is not a stable body liquid. Condensate pH shows baseline variability and it is influenced by drinking and by the ambient temperature. The changes in condensate pH are linked to changes in airway lining fluid pH. The variability of airway lining fluid pH may explain seasonal incidence of certain non-allergic respiratory diseases such as the catching of a common cold and the increased incidence of COPD exacerbations and exercise-induced bronchoconstriction in cold periods.

  10. Quantifying the growing season dynamics and phenology of a boreal black spruce wildfire chronosequence: Coupling field measurements with MODIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serbin, S. P.; Ahl, D. E.; Gower, S. T.

    2007-12-01

    The boreal forest is the second largest forested biome and the vast area and large carbon stores in the soil makes these forests important to the global carbon, water and energy cycles. Analysis of global coverage, coarse resolution satellite Vegetation Index (VI) data have provided considerable information on the seasonal cycles of vegetation in the mid-to high-latitudes, including the boreal forest, with evidence of an increase in the magnitude of vegetation greenness and a lengthening of the active growing season, which has been attributed to climate warming. However, boreal forests are prone to extensive wildfire disturbance that influence canopy dynamics (i.e. species composition, LAI, and phenology) and separating the direct affect of warming from the indirect affect of increased wildfire frequency on the patterns of boreal phenology and seasonal greeness requires further analysis coupled to ground measurements. In this research we address the need for detailed information on the growing season dynamics and phenological patterns of boreal vegetation. We evaluate whether MODIS reflectance data can resolve small inter-annual variations in canopy phenology and growing season dynamics of boreal forests. We quantified the seasonality and inter-annual differences of the overstory and understory vegetation by optically measuring the LAI and light harvesting potential (FPAR) during the 2004-2006 growing seasons. An automated continuously operating system is used to monitor growing season PAR transmittance. We focused on a boreal wildfire chronosequence of sites comprising a range of forest ages (1-154 years since fire) to quantify the differences in vegetation dynamics and phenology between the deciduous/mixed and coniferous forests. The spatial and temporal characteristics of LAI / FPAR within the chronosequence were examined by comparing both the in situ measurements and the relevant MODIS products. A statistical curve fitting procedure is used to derive the key

  11. Towards understanding temporal and spatial dynamics of Bactrocera oleae (Rossi) infestations using decade-long agrometeorological time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marchi, Susanna; Guidotti, Diego; Ricciolini, Massimo; Petacchi, Ruggero

    2016-11-01

    Insect dynamics depend on temperature patterns, and therefore, global warming may lead to increasing frequencies and intensities of insect outbreaks. The aim of this work was to analyze the dynamics of the olive fruit fly, Bactrocera oleae (Rossi), in Tuscany (Italy). We profited from long-term records of insect infestation and weather data available from the regional database and agrometeorological network. We tested whether the analysis of 13 years of monitoring campaigns can be used as basis for prediction models of B. oleae infestation. We related the percentage of infestation observed in the first part of the host-pest interaction and throughout the whole year to agrometeorological indices formulated for different time periods. A two-step approach was adopted to inspect the effect of weather on infestation: generalized linear model with a binomial error distribution and principal component regression to reduce the number of the agrometeorological factors and remove their collinearity. We found a consistent relationship between the degree of infestation and the temperature-based indices calculated for the previous period. The relationship was stronger with the minimum temperature of winter season. Higher infestation was observed in years following warmer winters. The temperature of the previous winter and spring explained 66 % of variance of early-season infestation. The temperature of previous winter and spring, and current summer, explained 72 % of variance of total annual infestation. These results highlight the importance of multiannual monitoring activity to fully understand the dynamics of B. oleae populations at a regional scale.

  12. Key drivers of seasonal plankton dynamics in cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies off East Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonardo Laiolo

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Mesoscale eddies in the south west Pacific region are prominent ocean features that represent distinctive environments for phytoplankton. Here we examine the seasonal plankton dynamics associated with averaged cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies (CE and ACE, respectively off eastern Australia. We do this through building seasonal climatologies of mixed layer depth and surface chlorophyll-a for both CE and ACE by combining remotely sensed sea surface height (TOPEX/Poseidon, Envisat, Jason-1, and OSTM/Jason-2, remotely sensed ocean colour (GlobColour and in situ profiles of temperature, salinity and pressure from Argo floats. Using the CE and ACE seasonal climatologies, we assimilate the surface chlorophyll-a data into both a single (WOMBAT, and multi-phytoplankton class (EMS biogeochemical model to investigate the level of complexity required to simulate the phytoplankton chlorophyll-a. For the two eddy types, the data assimilation showed both biogeochemical models only needed one set of parameters to represent phytoplankton but needed different parameters for zooplankton. To assess the simulated phytoplankton behavior we compared EMS model simulations with a ship-based experiment that involved incubating a winter phytoplankton community sampled from below the mixed layer under ambient and two higher light intensities with and without nutrient enrichment. By the end of the 5-day field experiment, large diatom abundance was four times greater in all treatments compared to the initial community, with a corresponding decline in pico-cyanobacteria. The experimental results were consistent with the simulated behavior in CE and ACE, where the seasonal deepening of the mixed layer during winter produced a rapid increase in large phytoplankton. Our model simulations suggest that CE off East Australia are not only characterized by a higher chlorophyll-a concentration compared to ACE, but also by a higher concentration of large phytoplankton (i.e. diatoms due

  13. Sediment dynamics during the rainy season in tropical highland catchments of central Mexico using fallout radionuclides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evrard, Olivier; Némery, Julien; Gratiot, Nicolas; Duvert, Clément; Ayrault, Sophie; Lefèvre, Irène; Poulenard, Jérôme; Prat, Christian; Bonté, Philippe; Esteves, Michel

    2010-12-01

    Tropical regions are affected by intense soil erosion associated with deforestation, overgrazing, and cropping intensification. This land degradation leads to important on-site (e.g., decrease in soil fertility) and off-site (e.g., reservoir siltation and water pollution) impacts. This study determined the mean soil particle and sediment residence times in soils and rivers of three subcatchments (3-12 km 2) with contrasted land uses (i.e., cropland, forests, and rangelands) draining to a reservoir located in highlands of the transvolcanic Mexican belt. Calculations were based on rainfall amount and river discharges as well as on fallout radionuclide measurements (Be-7, Cs-137, and Pb-210) conducted on rainfall precipitated samples, soil sampled in the catchments, and suspended sediment collected by automatic samplers in the river during most storms recorded throughout the 2009 rainy season. Calculations using a radionuclide two-box balance model showed that the mean residence time of particles in soils ranged between 5000 ± 1500 and 23,300 ± 7000 years. In contrast, sediment residence time in rivers was much shorter, fluctuating between 50 ± 30 and 200 ± 70 days. The shortest mean residence times were measured in a hilly catchment dominated by cropland and rangelands, whereas they were the longest in an undulating catchment dominated by forests and cropland. Calculation of the Be-7/excess-Pb-210 in both rainfall and sediment allowed gaining insight on sediment dynamics throughout the rainy season. The first heavy storms of the year exported the bulk of the sediment stock accumulated in the river channel during the previous year. Then, during the rainy season, the two steeper catchments dominated by cropland and rangelands reacted strongly to rainfall. Sediment was indeed eroded and exported from both catchments during single heavy storms on several occasions in 2009. In contrast, the agro-forested catchment with gentler slopes exported sediment at a constant

  14. Sediment dynamics during the rainy season in tropical highland catchments of central Mexico using fallout radionuclides

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Evrard, Olivier; Ayrault, Sophie; Lefevre, Irene; Bonte, Philippe [Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l' Environnement - LSCE/IPSL, Unite Mixte de Recherche 8212 - CEA, CNRS, UVSQ, 91198-Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex (France); Nemery, Julien; Gratiot, Nicolas; Duvert, Clement; Prat, Christian; Esteves, Michel [Laboratoire d' etude des Transferts en Hydrologie et Environnement - LTHE, IRD, G-INP, Universite de Grenoble 1, CNRS, BP 53, 38041-Grenoble Cedex 9 (France); Poulenard, Jerome [Universite de Savoie, Centre Alpin de Recherche sur les Reseaux Trophiques des ecosystemes Limniques - CARRTEL, Savoie Technolac, 73376-Le Bourget du Lac (France)

    2010-07-01

    Tropical regions are affected by intense soil erosion associated with deforestation, overgrazing, and cropping intensification. This land degradation leads to important on-site (e.g., decrease in soil fertility) and off-site (e.g., reservoir siltation and water pollution) impacts. This study determined the mean soil particle and sediment residence times in soils and rivers of three sub-catchments (3-12 km{sup 2}) with contrasted land uses (i.e., cropland, forests, and rangelands) draining to a reservoir located in highlands of the trans-volcanic Mexican belt. Calculations were based on rainfall amount and river discharges as well as on fallout radionuclide measurements (Be-7, Cs-137, and Pb-210) conducted on rainfall precipitated samples, soil sampled in the catchments, and suspended sediment collected by automatic samplers in the river during most storms recorded throughout the 2009 rainy season. Calculations using a radionuclide two-box balance model showed that the mean residence time of particles in soils ranged between 5000 {+-} 1500 and 23, 300 {+-} 7000 years. In contrast, sediment residence time in rivers was much shorter, fluctuating between 50 {+-} 30 and 200 {+-} 70 days. The shortest mean residence times were measured in a hilly catchment dominated by cropland and rangelands, whereas they were the longest in an undulating catchment dominated by forests and cropland. Calculation of the Be-7/excess-Pb-210 in both rainfall and sediment allowed gaining insight on sediment dynamics throughout the rainy season. The first heavy storms of the year exported the bulk of the sediment stock accumulated in the river channel during the previous year. Then, during the rainy season, the two steeper catchments dominated by cropland and rangelands reacted strongly to rainfall. Sediment was indeed eroded and exported from both catchments during single heavy storms on several occasions in 2009. In contrast, the agro-forested catchment with gentler slopes exported sediment

  15. Eastward Migration or Marshward Dispersal: Exercising Survey Data to Elicit an Understanding of Seasonal Movement of Delta Smelt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dennis Daniel Murphy

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Differing and confounding understandings of the seasonal movements of the delta smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus in the San Francisco Estuary persist nearly 2 decades after its listing as threatened under the federal and state endangered species acts. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation have characterized the delta smelt as a species that migrates extensive distances from Suisun Bay and the Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers confluence in the fall and winter, eastward and upstream to the central and east Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta to spawn, with the next generation returning to downstream rearing areas in the following spring (OCAP Technical Support Team unpublished; USBR 2012. This description of inter-seasonal movements of delta smelt stands in contrast to findings drawn from previous studies, which describe movements by pre-spawner delta smelt from open waters in bays and channels to proximate marshlands and freshwater inlets (e.g., Moyle et al. 1992; Bennett 2005. In an effort to resolve this disagreement over the movements of delta smelt, we use publicly available data on its distribution drawn from trawl surveys to generate maps from which we infer seasonal patterns of dispersal. In the fall, before spawning, delta smelt are most abundant in Suisun Bay, the Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers confluence, the lower Sacramento River, and the Cache Slough complex. By March and April, the period of peak detection of spawning adults, relative densities in Suisun Bay and the rivers’ confluence have diminished in favor of higher concentrations of delta smelt in Montezuma Slough and the Cache Slough complex. A relatively small percentage of fish are observed in areas of the Sacramento River above Cache Slough. We conclude that inter-seasonal dispersal of delta smelt is more circumscribed than has been previously reported. This conclusion has real-world implications for efforts to conserve delta smelt. Our

  16. Understanding water: Molecular dynamics simulations of solubilized and crystallized myoglobin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wei Gu; Garcia, A.E.; Schoenborn, B.P.

    1994-01-01

    Molecular dynamics simulations were performed on CO myoglobin to evaluate the stability of the bound water molecules as determined in a neutron diffraction analysis. The myoglobin structure derived from the neutron analysis provided the starting coordinate set used in the simulations. The simulations show that only a few water molecules are tightly bound to protein atoms, while most solvent molecules are labile, breaking and reforming hydrogen bonds. Comparison between myoglobin in solution and in a single crystal highlighted some of the packing effects on the solvent structure and shows that water solvent plays an indispensable role in protein dynamics and structural stability. The described observations explain some of the differences in the experimental results of protein hydration as observed in NMR, neutron and X-ray diffraction studies

  17. Molecular Modeling of Enzyme Dynamics Towards Understanding Solvent Effects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wedberg, Nils Hejle Rasmus Ingemar

    ) in water and organic solvents. The effects of solvent on structural and dynamical enzyme properties are studied, and special attention is given to how enzyme properties in organic solvents are affected by the hydration level, which is shown to be related to the water activity. In experimental studies...... of enzyme kinetics in non-aqueous media, it has been a fruitful approach to fix the enzyme hydration level by controlling the water activity of the medium. In this work, a protocol is therefore developed for determining the water activity in non-aqueous protein simulations. The method relies on determining......This thesis describes the development of a molecular simulation methodology to study properties of enzymes in non-aqueous media at fixed thermodynamic water activities. The methodology is applied in a molecular dynamics study of the industrially important enzyme Candida antarctica lipase B (CALB...

  18. Understanding volatility dynamics in the EU-ETS market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sanin, Maria Eugenia; Mansanet-Bataller, Maria; Violante, Francesco

    We study the short-term price behavior of Phase 2 EU emission allowances. We model returns and volatility dynamics, and we demonstrate that a standard ARMAX-GARCH framework is inadequate for this modeling and that the gaussianity assumption is rejected due to a number of outliers. To improve the ...... periods. Thus, authorities face a trade off between disseminating information effectively and promoting market stability....

  19. Understanding Patchy Landscape Dynamics: Towards a Landscape Language

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaucherel, Cédric; Boudon, Frédéric; Houet, Thomas; Castets, Mathieu; Godin, Christophe

    2012-01-01

    Patchy landscapes driven by human decisions and/or natural forces are still a challenge to be understood and modelled. No attempt has been made up to now to describe them by a coherent framework and to formalize landscape changing rules. Overcoming this lacuna was our first objective here, and this was largely based on the notion of Rewriting Systems, also called Formal Grammars. We used complicated scenarios of agricultural dynamics to model landscapes and to write their corresponding driving rule equations. Our second objective was to illustrate the relevance of this landscape language concept for landscape modelling through various grassland managements, with the final aim to assess their respective impacts on biological conservation. For this purpose, we made the assumptions that a higher grassland appearance frequency and higher land cover connectivity are favourable to species conservation. Ecological results revealed that dairy and beef livestock production systems are more favourable to wild species than is hog farming, although in different ways. Methodological results allowed us to efficiently model and formalize these landscape dynamics. This study demonstrates the applicability of the Rewriting System framework to the modelling of agricultural landscapes and, hopefully, to other patchy landscapes. The newly defined grammar is able to explain changes that are neither necessarily local nor Markovian, and opens a way to analytical modelling of landscape dynamics. PMID:23049935

  20. Understanding the dynamics of parent involvement in schooling ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Erna Kinsey

    themselves pose barriers for both children and parents in the schooling system. Furthermore, results highlighted the central role that schools can play in increasing the degree of parental support, as well as ways in which to understand the support needed by these parents. The stress on parents and their relationships with ...

  1. Revisiting Hele-Shaw dynamics to better understand beach evolution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bokhove, Onno; van der Horn, Avraham/Bram; van der Horn, A.J.; van der Meer, Roger M.; Gagarina, Elena; Zweers, W.; Thornton, Anthony Richard

    Wave action, particularly during storms, drives the evo lution of beaches. Beach evolution by non-linear break ing waves is poorly understood due to its three-dimensional character, the range of scales involved, and our limited understanding of particle-wave interactions. We show how a novel,

  2. Assimilation of satellite reflectance data into a dynamical leaf model to infer seasonally varying leaf areas for climate and carbon models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Q.; Gu, L.; Dickinson, R. E.; Tian, Y.; Zhou, L.; Post, W. M.

    2008-10-01

    Leaf area index is an important input for many climate and carbon models. The widely used leaf area products derived from satellite-observed surface reflectances contain substantial erratic fluctuations in time due to inadequate atmospheric corrections and observational and retrieval uncertainties. These fluctuations are inconsistent with the seasonal dynamics of leaf area, known to be gradual. Their use in process-based terrestrial carbon models corrupts model behavior, making diagnosis of model performance difficult. We propose a data assimilation approach that combines the satellite observations of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) albedo with a dynamical leaf model. Its novelty is that the seasonal cycle of the directly retrieved leaf areas is smooth and consistent with both observations and current understandings of processes controlling leaf area dynamics. The approach optimizes the dynamical model parameters such that the difference between the estimated surface reflectances based on the modeled leaf area and those of satellite observations is minimized. We demonstrate the usefulness and advantage of our new approach at multiple deciduous forest sites in the United States.

  3. Seasonal emission of seminal coagulum and in vivo sperm dynamics in the black-handed spider monkey (Ateles geoffroyi).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernández-López, L; Cerda-Molina, A L; Páez-Ponce, L D; Mondragón-Ceballos, R

    2008-03-01

    The ejaculate of diverse primate species consists of two portions, liquid and solid; the latter, known as the seminal coagulum, is thought to sequester large numbers of sperm. In the black-handed spider monkey (Ateles geoffroyi), ejaculates collected by electroejaculation did not always contain seminal coagulum. The objective of the present study was to determine seasonal emission of seminal coagulum and in vivo sperm dynamics in the black-handed spider monkey. Seminal coagulum emission was related to season; it was more frequent in the dry season, coincident with maximal female fertility. Sperm concentration was higher (P = 0.02) in the dry season (dry vs. rainy season: 137.9 +/- 15.7 sperm/mL vs. 82.56 +/- 14.7 x1 0(6) sperm/mL; mean +/- S.E.M.) but also in ejaculates (collected during the rainy season) that had seminal coagulum (coagulum vs. no coagulum: 140.0 +/- 29.3 sperm/mL vs. 31.2+/-0.1 x 10(6) sperm/mL, P<0.001). In semen samples collected from the uterus after AI, the percentage of linearly motile sperm was higher during the dry season (dry vs. rainy: 9.1+/-2.1% vs. 5.9+/-2.5%), as well as whenever coagulum was present (coagulum vs. no coagulum: 13.0+/-3.2% vs. 2.0+/-0.9%, P<0.001).

  4. Understanding the Offender/Environment Dynamic for Computer Crimes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willison, Robert Andrew

    2005-01-01

    practices by possiblyhighlighting new areas for safeguard implementation. To help facilitate a greaterunderstanding of the offender/environment dynamic, this paper assesses the feasibilityof applying criminological theory to the IS security context. More specifically, threetheories are advanced, which focus...... on the offender's behaviour in a criminal setting. Drawing on an account of the Barings Bank collapse, events highlighted in the casestudy are used to assess whether concepts central to the theories are supported by thedata. It is noted that while one of the theories is to be found wanting in terms ofconceptual...

  5. Seasonal dynamics and effects of nitrogen supply rate on nitrogen and carbohydrate reserves in cutting-derived Salix viminalis plants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lars Bollmark; Lisa Sennerby-Forsse; Tom Ericsson

    1999-01-01

    Nurient storage is an important aspect of resprouting potential and production of Salix viminalis L., a pioneer species used for biomas production in weden. Seasonal dynamics of nitrogen (N), protien, soluble arbohydrates, starches, and lipids were studied in roots, cutting, stems, and leaves during a full growth cycle induced by varying photoperiod...

  6. Seasonal dynamics of mosquito occurrence in the Lower Dyje River Basin at the Czech-Slovak-Austrian border

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šebesta, Oldřich; Gelbič, Ivan; Peško, Juraj

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 80, č. 1 (2013), s. 125-138 ISSN 1125-0003 R&D Projects: GA MŠk 2B08003 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z50070508 Institutional support: RVO:68081766 ; RVO:60077344 Keywords : Czech Republic * South Moravia * Aedes vexans * Culex modestus * seasonal dynamics Subject RIV: EG - Zoology Impact factor: 0.865, year: 2013

  7. Specific structure, sexual parity and seasonal dynamics of separate kinds of ground-beetles of Tljaratinskiy area of Daghestan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. H. Imanmirzaev

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available As a result of carried out research in fauna of ground-beetles of Tljaratinskiy area it is revealed 87 kinds concerning 24 sorts. The sexual parity is established and seasonal dynamics of prepotent kinds is certain.

  8. Dynamic ankle stability and ankle sprain occurrence in elite ball team athletes : a one season prospective study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chris Visscher; Anne Benjaminse; Koen A.P.M. Lemmink; Msc Henrike van der Does; Michel Brink; Joan Dallinga

    2013-01-01

    To compare the dynamic stability index (DSI) measured at baseline between elite ball team athletes with and without an ankle sprain during the season. Methods Forty-four elite male (age:22.5±3.6yr,height:193.7±8.0cm,mass:87.1±10.9kg) and eighteen female

  9. Visualizing and Understanding Socio-Environmental Dynamics in Baltimore

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaitchik, B. F.; Omeara, K.; Guikema, S.; Scott, A.; Bessho, A.; Logan, T. M.

    2015-12-01

    The City of Baltimore, like any city, is the sum of its component neighborhoods, institutions, businesses, cultures, and, ultimately, its people. It is also an organism in its own right, with distinct geography, history, infrastructure, and environments that shape its residents even as it is shaped by them. Sometimes these interactions are obvious but often they are not; while basic economic patterns are widely documented, the distribution of socio-spatial and environmental connections often hides below the surface, as does the potential that those connections hold. Here we present results of a collaborative initiative on the geography, design, and policy of socio-environmental dynamics of Baltimore. Geospatial data derived from satellite imagery, demographic databases, social media feeds, infrastructure plans, and in situ environmental networks, among other sources, are applied to generate an interactive portrait of Baltimore City's social, health, and well-being dynamics. The layering of data serves as a platform for visualizing the interconnectedness of the City and as a database for modeling risk interactions, vulnerabilities, and strengths within and between communities. This presentation will provide an overview of project findings and highlight linkages to education and policy.

  10. Understanding Social Contagion in Adoption Processes Using Dynamic Social Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrera, Mauricio; Armelini, Guillermo; Salvaj, Erica

    2015-01-01

    There are many studies in the marketing and diffusion literature of the conditions in which social contagion affects adoption processes. Yet most of these studies assume that social interactions do not change over time, even though actors in social networks exhibit different likelihoods of being influenced across the diffusion period. Rooted in physics and epidemiology theories, this study proposes a Susceptible Infectious Susceptible (SIS) model to assess the role of social contagion in adoption processes, which takes changes in social dynamics over time into account. To study the adoption over a span of ten years, the authors used detailed data sets from a community of consumers and determined the importance of social contagion, as well as how the interplay of social and non-social influences from outside the community drives adoption processes. Although social contagion matters for diffusion, it is less relevant in shaping adoption when the study also includes social dynamics among members of the community. This finding is relevant for managers and entrepreneurs who trust in word-of-mouth marketing campaigns whose effect may be overestimated if marketers fail to acknowledge variations in social interactions.

  11. Understanding Social Contagion in Adoption Processes Using Dynamic Social Networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauricio Herrera

    Full Text Available There are many studies in the marketing and diffusion literature of the conditions in which social contagion affects adoption processes. Yet most of these studies assume that social interactions do not change over time, even though actors in social networks exhibit different likelihoods of being influenced across the diffusion period. Rooted in physics and epidemiology theories, this study proposes a Susceptible Infectious Susceptible (SIS model to assess the role of social contagion in adoption processes, which takes changes in social dynamics over time into account. To study the adoption over a span of ten years, the authors used detailed data sets from a community of consumers and determined the importance of social contagion, as well as how the interplay of social and non-social influences from outside the community drives adoption processes. Although social contagion matters for diffusion, it is less relevant in shaping adoption when the study also includes social dynamics among members of the community. This finding is relevant for managers and entrepreneurs who trust in word-of-mouth marketing campaigns whose effect may be overestimated if marketers fail to acknowledge variations in social interactions.

  12. Seasonal dynamics of sea surface salinity off Panama: The far Eastern Pacific Fresh Pool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alory, GaëL.; Maes, Christophe; Delcroix, Thierry; Reul, Nicolas; Illig, Serena

    2012-04-01

    The freshest surface waters in the tropical Pacific are found at its eastern boundary. Using in situ observations, we depict the quasi-permanent presence of a far eastern Pacific fresh pool with sea surface salinity (SSS) lower than 33, which is confined between Panama's west coast and 85°W in December and extends westward to 95°W in April. Strong SSS fronts are found at the outer edge of this fresh pool. We investigate the seasonal dynamics of the fresh pool using complementary satellite wind, rain, sea level and in situ oceanic current data at the surface, along with hydrographic profiles. The fresh pool appears off Panama due to the strong summer rains associated with the northward migration of the ITCZ over Central America in June. During the second half of the year, the eastward-flowing North Equatorial Counter-Current keeps it trapped to the coast and strengthens the SSS front on its western edge. During winter, as the ITCZ moves southward, the northeasterly Panama gap wind creates a southwestward jet-like current in its path with a dipole of Ekman pumping/eddies on its flanks. As a result, upwelling in the Panama Bight brings to the surface cold and salty waters which erode the fresh pool on its eastern side while both the jet current and the enhanced South Equatorial Current stretch the fresh pool westward until it nearly disappears in May. New SMOS satellite SSS data proves able to capture the main seasonal features of the fresh pool and monitor its spatial extent.

  13. Average circulation, seasonal cycle, and mesoscale dynamics of the Peru Current System: A modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penven, P.; Echevin, V.; Pasapera, J.; Colas, F.; Tam, J.

    2005-10-01

    The Humboldt Current System is the most productive of the eastern boundary currents. In the northern part, the Peru Current System (PCS) is located between 5°S and 20°S. Along the Peruvian coast, an equatorward wind forces a strong coastal upwelling. A high resolution model is designed to investigate the mean circulation, the seasonal cycle, and the mesoscale dynamics for the PCS. The model is able to reproduce the equatorward Peru Coastal Current (PCC), the Peru Chile Under-Current (PCUC) which follows the shelf break towards the pole, and the Peru-Chile Counter-Current (PCCC) which flows directly towards the south and veers to the west around 15°S. While the upper part of the PCUC is close to the surface and might even outcrop as a counter current, the bottom part follows ? isolines. The PCCC appears to be directly forced by the cyclonic wind stress curl. The model is able to produce the upwelling front, the cold water tongue which extends toward the equator and the equatorial front as described in the literature. Model seasonal changes in SST and SSH are compared to measurements. For the central PCS, model EKE is 10% to 30% lower than the observations. The model eddy diameters follow a strong equatorward increase. The injection length scales, derived from the energy spectra, strongly correlate to the Rossby radius of deformation, confirming the predominant role of baroclinic instability. At 3°S, the model solution appears to switch from a turbulent oceanic regime to an equatorial regime dominated by zonal currents.

  14. Seasonal Pattern of Decomposition and N, P, and C Dynamics in Leaf litter in a Mongolian Oak Forest and a Korean Pine Plantation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaeeun Sohng

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Distinct seasons and diverse tree species characterize temperate deciduous forests in NE Asia, but large areas of deciduous forests have been converted to conifer plantations. This study was conducted to understand the effects of seasons and tree species on leaf litter decomposition in a temperate forest. Using the litterbag method, the decomposition rate and nitrogen, phosphorous, and carbon dynamics of Mongolian oak (Quercus mongolica, Korean pine (Pinus koraiensis, and their mixed leaf litter were compared for 24 months in a Mongolian oak stand, an adjacent Korean pine plantation, and a Mongolian oak—Korean pine mixed stand. The decomposition rates of all the leaf litter types followed a pattern of distinct seasonal changes: most leaf litter decomposition occurred during the summer. Tree species was less influential on the leaf litter decomposition. The decomposition rates among different leaf litter types within the same stand were not significantly different, indicating no mixed litter effect. The immobilization of leaf litter N and P lasted for 14 months. Mongolian oak leaf litter and Korean pine leaf litter showed different N and P contents and dynamics during the decomposition, and soil P2O5 was highest in the Korean pine plantation, suggesting effects of plantation on soil nutrient budget.

  15. Seasonal dynamics of mobile carbohydrates and stem growth in Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) exposed to drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oberhuber, Walter; Kofler, Werner; Schuster, Roman; Swidrak, Irene; Gruber, Andreas

    2014-05-01

    Tree growth requires a continuous supply of carbon as structural material and as a source for metabolic energy. To detect whether intra-annual stem growth is related to changes in carbon allocation, we monitored seasonal dynamics of shoot and radial growth and concentrations of mobile carbohydrates (NSC) in above- and belowground organs of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.). The study area is situated within an inner Alpine dry environment (750 m asl, Tyrol, Austria), which is characterized by recurring drought periods at the start of the growing season in spring and limited water holding capacity of nutrient deficient, shallow stony soils. Shoot elongation was monitored on lateral branches in the canopy and stem radius changes were continuously followed by electronic band dendrometers. Daily radial stem growth and tree water deficit (ΔW) were extracted from dendrometer records. ΔW is regarded a reliable measure of drought stress in trees and develops when transpirational water loss from leaves exceeds water uptake by the root system. Daily radial stem growth and ΔW were related to environmental variables and determination of NSC was performed using specific enzymatic assays. Results revealed quite early culmination of aboveground growth rates in late April (shoot growth) and late May (radial growth), and increasing accumulation of NSC in coarse roots in June. NSC content in roots peaked at the end of July and thereafter decreased again, indicating a shift in carbon allocation after an early cessation of aboveground stem growth. ΔW was found to peak in late summer, when high temperatures prevailed. That maximum growth rates of aboveground organs peaked quite before precipitation increased during summer is related to the finding that ΔW and radial stem growth were more strongly controlled by the atmospheric environment, than by soil water content. We conclude that as a response to the seasonal development of ΔW a shift in carbon allocation from aboveground

  16. Understanding the Complexity of Temperature Dynamics in Xinjiang, China, from Multitemporal Scale and Spatial Perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianhua Xu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on the observed data from 51 meteorological stations during the period from 1958 to 2012 in Xinjiang, China, we investigated the complexity of temperature dynamics from the temporal and spatial perspectives by using a comprehensive approach including the correlation dimension (CD, classical statistics, and geostatistics. The main conclusions are as follows (1 The integer CD values indicate that the temperature dynamics are a complex and chaotic system, which is sensitive to the initial conditions. (2 The complexity of temperature dynamics decreases along with the increase of temporal scale. To describe the temperature dynamics, at least 3 independent variables are needed at daily scale, whereas at least 2 independent variables are needed at monthly, seasonal, and annual scales. (3 The spatial patterns of CD values at different temporal scales indicate that the complex temperature dynamics are derived from the complex landform.

  17. Understanding Dynamic Competitive Technology Diffusion in Electronic Markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Cheng; Song, Peijian; Xu, Yunjie; Xue, Ling

    The extant literature on information technology (IT) diffusion has largely treated technology diffusion as a generic and independent process. This study, in contrast, examines the diffusion of different IT products with brand differentiation and competition. Drawing upon existing theories of product diffusion, we propose a research model to capture the dynamics of the competitive diffusion of web-based IT products and validate it with longitudinal field data of e-business platforms. Our findings suggest that IT product diffusion can be better predicted by a competitive model than by an independent-diffusion-process model. This research extends IT research to the context of competitive diffusion and provides practitioners an effective model to predict the dissemination of their products. The research also suggests the existence of asymmetric interactions among competing products, prompting scholars and practitioners to pay attention to the influence of competing products when making forecast of their product market.

  18. Evolution of Secondary Software Businesses: Understanding Industry Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tyrväinen, Pasi; Warsta, Juhani; Seppänen, Veikko

    Primary software industry originates from IBM's decision to unbundle software-related computer system development activities to external partners. This kind of outsourcing from an enterprise internal software development activity is a common means to start a new software business serving a vertical software market. It combines knowledge of the vertical market process with competence in software development. In this research, we present and analyze the key figures of the Finnish secondary software industry, in order to quantify its interaction with the primary software industry during the period of 2000-2003. On the basis of the empirical data, we present a model for evolution of a secondary software business, which makes explicit the industry dynamics. It represents the shift from internal software developed for competitive advantage to development of products supporting standard business processes on top of standardized technologies. We also discuss the implications for software business strategies in each phase.

  19. Modeling Dynamic Food Choice Processes to Understand Dietary Intervention Effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcum, Christopher Steven; Goldring, Megan R; McBride, Colleen M; Persky, Susan

    2018-02-17

    Meal construction is largely governed by nonconscious and habit-based processes that can be represented as a collection of in dividual, micro-level food choices that eventually give rise to a final plate. Despite this, dietary behavior intervention research rarely captures these micro-level food choice processes, instead measuring outcomes at aggregated levels. This is due in part to a dearth of analytic techniques to model these dynamic time-series events. The current article addresses this limitation by applying a generalization of the relational event framework to model micro-level food choice behavior following an educational intervention. Relational event modeling was used to model the food choices that 221 mothers made for their child following receipt of an information-based intervention. Participants were randomized to receive either (a) control information; (b) childhood obesity risk information; (c) childhood obesity risk information plus a personalized family history-based risk estimate for their child. Participants then made food choices for their child in a virtual reality-based food buffet simulation. Micro-level aspects of the built environment, such as the ordering of each food in the buffet, were influential. Other dynamic processes such as choice inertia also influenced food selection. Among participants receiving the strongest intervention condition, choice inertia decreased and the overall rate of food selection increased. Modeling food selection processes can elucidate the points at which interventions exert their influence. Researchers can leverage these findings to gain insight into nonconscious and uncontrollable aspects of food selection that influence dietary outcomes, which can ultimately improve the design of dietary interventions.

  20. Phytoplankton dynamics of a tropical river: A dry and rainy season ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The season in different groups were green algae and pennate diatoms. Quantitatively, the dominant taxa during the rainy season were Aulacoseira spp. whereas in the dry season, phytoplankton flora was dominated by a baculifom1 desmid-Desmidium aptogonium var. tetragonium and a filamentous pennate diatom ...

  1. Cost of living in free-ranging degus (Octodon degus) : seasonal dynamics of energy expenditure

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bozinovic, F; Bacigalupe, LD; Vasquez, RA; Visser, GH; Veloso, C; Kenagy, GJ

    Animals process and allocate energy at different seasons at variable rates, depending on their breeding season and changes in environmental conditions and resulting physiological demands. Overall total energy expenditure, in turn, should either increase in some seasons due to special added demands

  2. Effects of Seasonal Land Surface Conditions on Hydrometeorological Dynamics in South-western North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-21

    SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: Arid and semiarid landscapes in regions with seasonal precipitation experience dramatic changes that alter land surface...semiarid landscapes in regions with seasonal precipitation experience dramatic changes that alter land surface conditions, including soil moisture...aerial vehicle data acquisition and high performance computing-based hydrologic modeling designed to capture, account for and predict seasonal variations

  3. Dynamic systems for everyone understanding how our world works

    CERN Document Server

    Ghosh, Asish

    2015-01-01

    This book is a study of the interactions between different types of systems, their environment, and their subsystems.  The author explains how basic systems principles are applied in engineered (mechanical, electromechanical, etc.) systems and then guides the reader to understand how the same principles can be applied to social, political, economic systems, as well as in everyday life.  Readers from a variety of disciplines will benefit from the understanding of system behaviors and will be able to apply those principles in various contexts.  The book includes many examples covering various types of systems.  The treatment of the subject is non-mathematical, and the book considers some of the latest concepts in the systems discipline, such as agent-based systems, optimization, and discrete events and procedures.  ·         Shows how system knowledge may be applied in many different areas without the need for deep mathematical knowledge; ·         Demonstrates how to model and simulate s...

  4. Understanding the major transitions in Quaternary climate dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willeit, Matteo; Ganopolski, Andrey

    2017-04-01

    Climate dynamics over the past 3 million years was characterized by strong variability associated with glacial cycles and several distinct regime changes. The Pliocene-Pleistocene Transition (PPT), which happened around 2.7 million years ago, was characterized by the appearance of the large continental ice sheets over Northern Eurasia and North America. For two million years after the PPT climate variability was dominated by relatively symmetric 40 kyr cycles. At around 1 million years ago the dominant mode of climate variability experienced a relatively rapid transition from 40 kyr to strongly asymmetric 100 kyr cycles of larger amplitude (Mid-Pleistocene Transition). Additionally, during the past 800 kyr there are clear differences between the earlier and the later glacial cycles with the last five cycles characterized by larger magnitude of variability (Mid-Brunhes Event). Here, we use the Earth system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-2 to explore possible mechanisms that could explain these regime shifts. CLIMBER-2 incorporates all major components of the Earth system - atmosphere, ocean, land surface, northern hemisphere ice sheets, terrestrial biota and soil carbon, marine biogeochemistry and aeolian dust. The model was optimally tuned to reproduce climate, ice volume and CO2 variability over the last 400,000 years. Using the same model version, we performed a large set of simulations covering the entire Quaternary (3 million years) starting from identical initial conditions and using a parallelization in time technique which consists of starting the model at different times (every 100,000 years) and running each simulation for 500,000 years. The Earth's orbital variations are the only prescribed radiative forcing. Several sets of the Northern Hemisphere orography and sediment thickness representing different stages of landscape evolution during the Quaternary are prescribed as boundary conditions for the ice sheet model and volcanic CO2 outgassing is

  5. Understanding the heavy-tailed dynamics in human behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Gordon J; Jones, Tim

    2015-06-01

    The recent availability of electronic data sets containing large volumes of communication data has made it possible to study human behavior on a larger scale than ever before. From this, it has been discovered that across a diverse range of data sets, the interevent times between consecutive communication events obey heavy-tailed power law dynamics. Explaining this has proved controversial, and two distinct hypotheses have emerged. The first holds that these power laws are fundamental, and arise from the mechanisms such as priority queuing that humans use to schedule tasks. The second holds that they are statistical artifacts which only occur in aggregated data when features such as circadian rhythms and burstiness are ignored. We use a large social media data set to test these hypotheses, and find that although models that incorporate circadian rhythms and burstiness do explain part of the observed heavy tails, there is residual unexplained heavy-tail behavior which suggests a more fundamental cause. Based on this, we develop a quantitative model of human behavior which improves on existing approaches and gives insight into the mechanisms underlying human interactions.

  6. A system dynamics approach to understanding the One Health concept.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tai Xie

    Full Text Available There have been many terms used to describe the One Health concept, including movement, strategy, framework, agenda, approach, among others. However, the inter-relationships of the disciplines engaged in the One Health concept have not been well described. To identify and better elucidate the internal feedback mechanisms of One Health, we employed a system dynamics approach. First, a systematic literature review was conducted via searches in PubMed, Web of Knowledge, and ProQuest with the search terms: 'One Health' and (concept* or approach*. In addition, we used the HistCite® tool to add significant articles on One Health to the library. Then, of the 2368 articles identified, 19 were selected for evaluating the inter-relationships of disciplines engaged in One Health. Herein, we report a visually rich, theoretical model regarding interactions of various disciplines and complex problem descriptors engaged in One Health problem solving. This report provides a conceptual framework for future descriptions of the interdisciplinary engagements involved in One Health.

  7. A dynamical system perspective to understanding badminton singles game play.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chow, Jia Yi; Seifert, Ludovic; Hérault, Romain; Chia, Shannon Jing Yi; Lee, Miriam Chang Yi

    2014-02-01

    By altering the task constraints of cooperative and competitive game contexts in badminton, insights can be obtained from a dynamical systems perspective to investigate the underlying processes that results in either a gradual shift or transition of playing patterns. Positional data of three pairs of skilled female badminton players (average age 20.5±1.38years) were captured and analyzed. Local correlation coefficient, which provides information on the relationship of players' displacement data, between each pair of players was computed for angle and distance from base position. Speed scalar product was in turn established from speed vectors of the players. The results revealed two patterns of playing behaviors (i.e., in-phase and anti-phase patterns) for movement displacement. Anti-phase relation was the dominant coupling pattern for speed scalar relationships among the pairs of players. Speed scalar product, as a collective variable, was different between cooperative and competitive plays with a greater variability in amplitude seen in competitive plays leading to a winning point. The findings from this study provide evidence for increasing stroke variability to perturb existing stable patterns of play and highlights the potential for speed scalar product to be a collective variable to distinguish different patterns of play (e.g., cooperative and competitive). Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Understanding the influence of topography on the dynamics of the North American monsoon in climate model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varuolo-Clarke, A. M.; Medeiros, B.; Reed, K. A.

    2017-12-01

    This project examines the influence of topography on the dynamics of the North American monsoon (NAM), including the genesis, peak, and demise of the monsoon. The monsoon season occurs from July to September in the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico and is characterized by an increase in rainfall that accounts for 40-80% of the total annual rainfall. We use a simple "monsoon index" and show that simulations with the Community Atmosphere model capture the essential nature of the NAM. Comparing standard low-resolution (1o latitude x 1o longitude) simulations where the topography over North America is either retained or removed we evaluate the models' representations of the NAM. To understand the origin of differences between the simulations we analyze the moist static energy budget in the monsoon region. Our preliminary results from simulations with realistic topography indicate that the simulated NAM is driven by locally-generated convection, with advection processes being secondary; this is consistent with the NAM being a result of the thermal contrast between the hot, summertime continent and relatively cool ocean. When topography is removed the simulated NAM will be relatively weak and be driven primarily by locally-generated convection. A better understanding of the monsoon dynamics and the impact topography has on these dynamics will allow for a more accurate representation of the monsoon in projections of future climate.

  9. Seasonal dynamics and possible development of total count of microorganisms in sheep’s milk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcela Klimešová

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The work is focused on the evaluation of seasonal dynamics of the total count of microorganisms in sheep’s milk and on the proposal of developing cut-off values for standard limitation for the next fifteen years for hygienic safety support. The total count of microorganisms was measured between years 2012–2014 (n = 4,746. The results were statistically evaluated using medians, geometric means, arithmetic means, means of log values (log10 and standard deviations for the cut-off limit determination. This model was patterned on the maximum of total count of microorganisms in the tested percentiles 95 (statistical conventional interval, 91, 90, 80 and 70% and on the result of medians (from 109 to 148 × 103 cfu/ml. These cut-off limits were divided into three classes (I to III of standard quality, and the model of dynamics for their gradual implementation time was created as follows: initiation period (class I = ≤ 800; II = from 801 to 1,300; III = 1,301 to 4,000; non-standard = > 4,000 × 103 cfu/ml; second period (class I = ≤ 550; II = 551 to 800; III = 801 to 1,300; non-standard = > 1,300 × 103 cfu/ml; third period (standard class = ≤ 800 × 103 cfu/ml; fourth period (standard class = ≤ 550 × 103 cfu/ml; and the last legislative period (≤ 300 × 103 cfu/ml as a real hygienic limit. The limit for milk without heat treatment corresponds to the real value of the median 200 × 103 cfu/ml. The work is important for the procedures in the development of methods for the control and safety of raw food material.

  10. Seasonal PCB bioaccumulation in an arctic marine ecosystem: a model analysis incorporating lipid dynamics, food-web productivity and migration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laender, Frederik De; Oevelen, Dick Van; Frantzen, Sylvia; Middelburg, Jack J; Soetaert, Karline

    2010-01-01

    Primary production and species' lipid contents in Arctic ecosystems are notoriously seasonal. Additionally, seasonal migration patterns of fish may alter prey availability and thus diet. Taking the southern Barents Sea as a study region and PCBs as model contaminants, we examined to what extent each of these factors cause bioaccumulation in fish to change throughout the year. Data on physiology and standing stocks of multiple trophic levels were used to estimated season-specific carbon budgets and by inference also corresponding values for food ingestion and production of cod, capelin, and herring. When combining these values with Arctic lipid dynamics for bioaccumulation model parameter setting, we predicted bioaccumulation factors (BAFs) that were in good agreement with BAFs for cod and capelin observed between 1998 and 2008. BAFs in all fish were 10 times lower in summer than in spring and fall/winter and were mainly driven by lipid dynamics. Trophic magnification factors (TMFs: increase in BAF per unit increase in trophic level as derived from our carbon budgets) were highest for PCB 153 during spring (2.3-2.4) and lowest for PCB 52 in summer and fall/winter (1.5-1.6) and were driven by seasonal shifts in trophic level and lipid dynamics.

  11. Understanding DOC Mobilization Dynamics Through High Frequency Measurements in a Headwater Catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werner, B.; Musolff, A.; Lechtenfeld, O.; de Rooij, G. H.; Fleckenstein, J. H.

    2017-12-01

    Increasing dissolved organic carbon (DOC) exports from headwater catchments impact the quality of downstream waters and pose challenges to water supply. The importance of riparian zones for DOC export from catchments in humid, temperate climates has generally been acknowledged, but the hydrological controls and biogeochemical factors that govern mobilization of DOC from riparian zones remain elusive. By analyzing high-frequency time series of UV-VIS based water quality we therefore aim at a better understanding on temporal dynamics of DOC mobilization and exports. In a first step a one year high frequency (15 minutes) data set from a headwater catchment in the Harz Mountains (Germany) was systematically analyzed for event-based patterns in DOC concentrations. Here, a simplistic linear model was generated to explain DOC concentration level and variability in the stream. Furthermore, spectral (e.g. slopes and SUVA254) and molecular (FT-ICR-MS) characterization of DOC was used to fingerprint in-stream DOC during events. Continuous DOC concentrations were best predicted (R², NSE = 0.53) by instantaneous discharge (Q) and antecede wetness conditions of the last 30 days (AWC30 = Precip.30/PET30) as well as mean air temperature (Tmean30) and mean discharge (Qmean30) of the preceding 30 days. Analyses of 36 events revealed seasonal trends for the slope, intercept and R² of linear log(DOC)-log(Q) regressions that can be best explained by the mean air temperature of the preceding 15 days. Continuously available optical DOC quality parameters SUVA254 and spectral slope (275 nm - 295 nm) systematically changed with shifts in discharge and in DOC concentration. This is underlined by selected FT-ICR-MS measurements indicating higher DOC aromaticity and oxygen content at high flow conditions. The change of DOC quality parameters during events indicate a shift in the activated source zones: DOC with a different quality was mobilized during high flow conditions when higher

  12. Understanding Magmatic Plumbing System Dynamics at Fernandina Island, Galapagos

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varga, K. C.; McGuire, M.; Geist, D.; Harpp, K. S.

    2015-12-01

    Fernandina is the most active Galápagos volcano, and is located closest to the seismically defined hotspot. Allan and Simkin (2000) observed that the subaerial edifice is constructed of homogeneous basalts (Mg# = 49 ± 2) with highly variable plagioclase phenocryst contents and sparse olivine. Geist et al. (2006) proposed a magmatic plumbing system in which the volcano is supplied by interconnected sills, the shallowest of which is density-stratified: olivine and pyroxene are concentrated at greater depths, whereas less dense plagioclase mush is higher in the sill. Consequently, olivine-rich lava erupts laterally during submarine events, but plagioclase-rich lava supplies subaerial vents. To test this hypothesis, we examine lavas erupted in 1995, 2005, and 2009. These SW flank eruptions emerged alternatively from en echelon radial fissures on the lower flanks and circumferential fissures near the caldera rim. The 1995 radial fissure unzipped downslope and then formed a cone 4 km from the coast, sending flows to the ocean. In 2005, circumferential fissures erupted five flows south of the 1995 fissure. As in 1995, the 2009 fissures opened down the SW flank before focusing to a cone near the 1995 vents, producing 6 km-long flows that also reached the ocean. By correlating plagioclase crystal size distribution and morphologies with single event chronological sequences, we examine Fernandina's magmatic plumbing system. Modal plagioclase in 1995 lava decreases (20% to <5%) throughout the middle eruptive phase. Early 2005 samples are nearly aphyric (Chadwick et al., 2010), with 1-2% plagioclase. The 2009 eruption has reduced plagioclase, similar to mid-1995 samples. Preliminary observations suggest that less plagioclase-rich mush is being flushed out during early-to-medial event sequences, whereas plag phenocrysts are transported more during later phases. Plausible plumbing dynamics suggest a zone of plagioclase-rich mush that is eroded and incorporated into radial

  13. [Seasonal dynamics of quantitative and morphological traits of poplar fine roots and their differences between successive rotation plantations].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yan-ping; Xu, Tan; Zhu, Wan-rui; Wang, Qi-tong; Liu, Meng-ling; Wang, Hua-tian; Li, Chuan-rong; Dong, Yu-feng

    2016-02-01

    Based on the fine root samples of the first and second generations of poplar (Populus x euramericana ' Neva'), this study examined the response of quantitative and morphological traits of fine roots of different orders and the difference between generations. The results showed that, the quantitative traits of fine roots, such as root length, root surface area and root biomass, presented obvious seasonal variation, and the fine root traits had obvious difference among root orders. The quantitative traits of lower-order fine roots showed significant seasonal difference, and the fine root biomass increased in the growing season and then decreased significantly. The specific root length (SRL) of higher-order roots also showed significant change with season, while the root length density (RLD) and root tissue density (RTD) changed a little. The successive rotation resulted in the significant increase of root length, root biomass, SRL and RLD of 1-2 orders in the growing season. The quantitative traits of first order root significantly positively correlated with soil temperature and moisture, and significantly negatively correlated with the soil organic matter and soil available nitrogen content. However, the quantitative traits of second order root only showed significant correlation with soil nutrient content. The seasonal dynamics of poplar fine roots and the difference between successive rotation plantations implied carbon investment change of poplar to roots. Soil nutrient deficiency induced more carbon investment into roots, and this carbon allocation pattern might affect the aboveground productivity of poplar plantation.

  14. Impact of oceanic-scale interactions on the seasonal modulation of ocean dynamics by the atmosphere.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sasaki, Hideharu; Klein, Patrice; Qiu, Bo; Sasai, Yoshikazu

    2014-12-15

    Ocean eddies (with a size of 100-300 km), ubiquitous in satellite observations, are known to represent about 80% of the total ocean kinetic energy. Recent studies have pointed out the unexpected role of smaller oceanic structures (with 1-50 km scales) in generating and sustaining these eddies. The interpretation proposed so far invokes the internal instability resulting from the large-scale interaction between upper and interior oceanic layers. Here we show, using a new high-resolution simulation of the realistic North Pacific Ocean, that ocean eddies are instead sustained by a different process that involves small-scale mixed-layer instabilities set up by large-scale atmospheric forcing in winter. This leads to a seasonal evolution of the eddy kinetic energy in a very large part of this ocean, with an amplitude varying by a factor almost equal to 2. Perspectives in terms of the impacts on climate dynamics and future satellite observational systems are briefly discussed.

  15. Methanotrophic community dynamics in a seasonally anoxic fjord: Saanich Inlet, British Columbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mónica Torres-Beltrán

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Marine oxygen minimum zones (OMZs play disproportionate roles in nutrient and climate active trace gas cycling including nitrous oxide and methane, in the ocean. OMZs are currently expanding due to climate change making it increasingly important to identify microbial controls on trace gas cycling at the individual, population and community levels. Here we present a two-year survey of the microbial community along seasonal redox gradients in Saanich Inlet focused on identifying microbial agents driving methane oxidation. Although methanotrophs were rare, we identified three uncultivated groups affiliated with particulate methane monooxygenase (pMMO encoding phylogenetic groups (OPU, and methanotrophic symbionts as primary drivers of methane oxidation in Saanich Inlet. Distribution and activity patterns for these three groups were consistent with niche partitioning that became increasingly resolved during water column stratification. Moreover co-occurrence analysis combined with multi-level indicator species analysis revealed significant correlations between operational taxonomic units affiliated with Methylophaga, Methylophilales, SAR324, Verrucomicrobia, and Planctomycetes with OPUs and methanotrophic symbiont groups. Taken together these observations shed new light on the composition, dynamics, and potential interspecific interactions of microbes associated with CH4 cycling in the Saanich Inlet water column, provide a baseline for comparison between coastal and open ocean OMZs and support the potential role of OPUs, and methanotrophic symbiont groups as a widely distributed pelagic sink for CH4 along continental margins.

  16. Seasonal dynamics and management of whitefly ( Bemesia tabaci Genn. in tomato ( Solanum esculentum Mill.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Devinder Sharma

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Studies on seasonal dynamics of white fly (Bemesia tabaci on tomato (Solanum esculentum var. Pusa Ruby revealed that it appeared first during the 13th and reached maximum during 21st standard meteorological week. A positive correlation between adult population and abiotic factors viz. temperature (maximum and minimum and sunshine hours was observed, whereas humidity (maximum and minimum and rainfall showed a negative correlation with it. Taken together, the key weather parameters studied, caused 89.00 per cent variation in whitefly population (R2 value. Combination of carbofuran (soil application + imidacloprid (seed treatment + imidacloprid (foliar application proved significantly superior and caused maximum reduction in whitefly population followed by imidacloprid (seed treatment + thiomethoxam (spray, imidacloprid (seed treatment + imidacloprid (spray, imidacloprid (seed treatment + dimetheoate (spray, carbofuran (soil application + malathion (spray, and imidacloprid (seed treatment + yellow sticky traps. The highest cost benefit ratio of 1:25.04 was recorded in case of carbofuran (soil application + imidacloprid (seed treatment + imidacloprid (foliar application followed by 1:22.38 for imidacloprid (seed treatment + thiomethoxam (spray ; 1:21.81 for imidacloprid (seed treatment + imidacloprid (spray; 1:19.27 imidacloprid (seed treatment + dimetheoate (spray; 1:19.48 carbofuran (soil application + malathion (spray, and 1:8.33 for imidacloprid (seed treatment + yellow sticky traps. The soil application of carbofuran + seed treatment with imidacloprid and three foliar sprays of imidacloprid at fortnight interval starting 40 days after transplanting is found effective and is advised for whitefly management in susceptible tomato cultivars.

  17. Seasonal dynamics of mobile carbohydrate pools in phloem and xylem of two alpine timberline conifers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gruber, A; Pirkebner, D; Oberhuber, W

    2013-10-01

    Recent studies on non-structural carbohydrate (NSC) reserves in trees focused on xylem NSC reserves, while still little is known about changes in phloem carbohydrate pools, where NSC charging might be significantly different. To gain insight on NSC dynamics in xylem and phloem, we monitored NSC concentrations in stems and roots of Pinus cembra (L.) and Larix decidua (Mill.) growing at the alpine timberline throughout 2011. Species-specific differences affected tree phenology and carbon allocation during the course of the year. After a delayed start in spring, NSC concentrations in L. decidua were significantly higher in all sampled tissues from August until the end of growing season. In both species, NSC concentrations were five to seven times higher in phloem than that in xylem. However, significant correlations between xylem and phloem starch content found for both species indicate a close linkage between long-term carbon reserves in both tissues. In L. decidua also, free sugar concentrations in xylem and phloem were significantly correlated throughout the year, while a lack of correlation between xylem and phloem free sugar pools in P. cembra indicate a decline of phloem soluble carbohydrate pools during periods of high sink demand.

  18. Prediction of the Arctic Oscillation in Boreal Winter by Dynamical Seasonal Forecasting Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Daehyun; Lee, Myong-In; Im, Jungho; Kim, Daehyun; Kim, Hye-Mi; Kang, Hyun-Suk; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Arribas, Alberto; MacLachlan, Craig

    2014-01-01

    This study assesses the skill of boreal winter Arctic Oscillation (AO) predictions with state-of-the-art dynamical ensemble prediction systems (EPSs): GloSea4, CFSv2, GEOS-5, CanCM3, CanCM4, and CM2.1. Long-term reforecasts with the EPSs are used to evaluate how well they represent the AO and to assess the skill of both deterministic and probabilistic forecasts of the AO. The reforecasts reproduce the observed changes in the large-scale patterns of the Northern Hemispheric surface temperature, upper level wind, and precipitation associated with the different phases of the AO. The results demonstrate that most EPSs improve upon persistence skill scores for lead times up to 2 months in boreal winter, suggesting some potential for skillful prediction of the AO and its associated climate anomalies at seasonal time scales. It is also found that the skill of AO forecasts during the recent period (1997-2010) is higher than that of the earlier period (1983-1996).

  19. Disease dynamics of Montipora white syndrome within Kaneohe Bay, Oahu, Hawaii: distribution, seasonality, virulence, and transmissibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aeby, G S; Ross, M; Williams, G J; Lewis, T D; Works, T M

    2010-07-26

    We report on an investigation of Montipora white syndrome (MWS), which is a coral disease reported from Hawaii, U.S.A., that results in tissue loss. Disease surveys of Montipora capitata within Kaneohe Bay (Oahu) found colonies that were affected by MWS on 9 reefs within 3 regions of Kaneohe Bay (south, central, north). Mean MWS prevalence ranged from 0.02 to 0.87% and average number of MWS cases per survey site ranged from 1 to 28 colonies. MWS prevalence and number of cases were significantly lower in the central region as compared to those in the north and south regions of Kaneohe Bay. There was a positive relationship between host abundance and MWS prevalence, and differences in host abundance between sites explained approximately 27% of the variation in MWS prevalence. Reefs in central Kaneohe Bay had lower M. capitata cover and lower MWS levels. MWS prevalence on reefs was neither significantly different between seasons (spring versus fall) nor among 57 tagged colonies that were monitored through time. MWS is a chronic and progressive disease causing M. capitata colonies to lose an average of 3.1% of live tissue mo(-1). Case fatality rate was 28% after 2 yr but recovery occurred in some colonies (32%). Manipulative experiments showed that the disease is acquired through direct contact. This is the first study to examine the dynamics of MWS within Hawaii, and our findings suggest that MWS has the potential to degrade Hawaii's reefs through time.

  20. Structure and dynamics of a benthic trophic web in a Mediterranean seasonal stream

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrizia Elena Vannucchi

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available In this work we present the results of a study conducted on the benthic macroinvertebrate community of a Southern Spain seasonal stream over a year. We constructed the food web focusing on the benthic fauna and we studied the ecology and dynamics of the community in terms of trophic resources. The benthic trophic web was composed by 35 families; these were not all present at the same time, but were incorporating and disappearing throughout the study period. Connectance between trophospecies varied from 0.24 to 0.59. The functional feeding group (FFG composition of the community turned out to be fairly constant with time with a predominance of scrapers and collector-gatherers. Furthermore, data obtained from the Bray-Curtis measure and the niche overlap study, evidence the stability of the stream from a trophic point of view. Rather widespread is omnivory that plays an important role in the survival of some families. We compared the results of the trophic web study with those of other temporary streams of the same region of Southern Spain.

  1. Understanding the group dynamics and success of teams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klug, Michael; Bagrow, James P.

    2016-01-01

    Complex problems often require coordinated group effort and can consume significant resources, yet our understanding of how teams form and succeed has been limited by a lack of large-scale, quantitative data. We analyse activity traces and success levels for approximately 150 000 self-organized, online team projects. While larger teams tend to be more successful, workload is highly focused across the team, with only a few members performing most work. We find that highly successful teams are significantly more focused than average teams of the same size, that their members have worked on more diverse sets of projects, and the members of highly successful teams are more likely to be core members or ‘leads’ of other teams. The relations between team success and size, focus and especially team experience cannot be explained by confounding factors such as team age, external contributions from non-team members, nor by group mechanisms such as social loafing. Taken together, these features point to organizational principles that may maximize the success of collaborative endeavours. PMID:27152217

  2. Dynamic systems for everyone understanding how our world works

    CERN Document Server

    Ghosh, Asish

    2017-01-01

    Systems are everywhere and we are surrounded by them. We are a complex amalgam of systems that enable us to interact with an endless array of external systems in our daily lives. They are electrical, mechanical, social, biological, and many other types that control our environment and our well-being. By appreciating how these systems function, will broaden our understanding of how our world works. Readers from a variety of disciplines will benefit from the knowledge of system behavior they will gain from this book and will be able to apply those principles in various contexts. The treatment of the subject is non-mathematical, and the book considers some of the latest concepts in the systems discipline, such as agent based systems, optimization, and discrete events and procedures. The diverse range of examples provided in this book, will allow readers to: Apply system knowledge at work and in daily life without deep mathematical knowledge; Build models and simulate system behaviors on a personal computer; Opti...

  3. Grand challenges in developing a predictive understanding of global fire dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randerson, J. T.; Chen, Y.; Wiggins, E. B.; Andela, N.; Morton, D. C.; Veraverbeke, S.; van der Werf, G.

    2017-12-01

    High quality satellite observations of burned area and fire thermal anomalies over the past two decades have transformed our understanding of climate, ecosystem, and human controls on the spatial and temporal distribution of landscape fires. The satellite observations provide evidence for a rapid and widespread loss of fire from grassland and savanna ecosystems worldwide. Continued expansion of industrial agriculture suggests that observed declines in global burned area are likely to continue in future decades, with profound consequences for ecosystem function and the habitat of many endangered species. Satellite time series also highlight the importance of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and other climate modes as drivers of interannual variability. In many regions, lead times between climate indices and fire activity are considerable, enabling the development of early warning prediction systems for fire season severity. With the recent availability of high-resolution observations from Suomi NPP, Landsat 8, and Sentinel 2, the field of global fire ecology is poised to make even more significant breakthroughs over the next decade. With these new observations, it may be possible to reduce uncertainties in the spatial pattern of burned area by several fold. It is difficult to overstate the importance of these new data constraints for improving our understanding of fire impacts on human health and radiative forcing of climate change. A key research challenge in this context is to understand how the loss of global burned area will affect magnitude of the terrestrial carbon sink and trends in atmospheric composition. Advances in prognostic fire modeling will require new approaches linking agriculture with landscape fire dynamics. A critical need in this context is the development of predictive models of road networks and other drivers of land fragmentation, and a closer integration of fragmentation information with algorithms predicting fire spread. Concurrently, a better

  4. Use of a dynamic simulation model to understand nitrogen cycling in the middle Rio Grande, NM.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meixner, Tom (University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ); Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Oelsner, Gretchen (University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ); Brooks, Paul (University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ); Roach, Jesse D.

    2008-08-01

    Water quality often limits the potential uses of scarce water resources in semiarid and arid regions. To best manage water quality one must understand the sources and sinks of both solutes and water to the river system. Nutrient concentration patterns can identify source and sink locations, but cannot always determine biotic processes that affect nutrient concentrations. Modeling tools can provide insight into these large-scale processes. To address questions about large-scale nitrogen removal in the Middle Rio Grande, NM, we created a system dynamics nitrate model using an existing integrated surface water--groundwater model of the region to evaluate our conceptual models of uptake and denitrification as potential nitrate removal mechanisms. We modeled denitrification in groundwater as a first-order process dependent only on concentration and used a 5% denitrification rate. Uptake was assumed to be proportional to transpiration and was modeled as a percentage of the evapotranspiration calculated within the model multiplied by the nitrate concentration in the water being transpired. We modeled riparian uptake as 90% and agricultural uptake as 50% of the respective evapotranspiration rates. Using these removal rates, our model results suggest that riparian uptake, agricultural uptake and denitrification in groundwater are all needed to produce the observed nitrate concentrations in the groundwater, conveyance channels, and river as well as the seasonal concentration patterns. The model results indicate that a total of 497 metric tons of nitrate-N are removed from the Middle Rio Grande annually. Where river nitrate concentrations are low and there are no large nitrate sources, nitrate behaves nearly conservatively and riparian and agricultural uptake are the most important removal mechanisms. Downstream of a large wastewater nitrate source, denitrification and agricultural uptake were responsible for approximately 90% of the nitrogen removal.

  5. Seasonal dynamics of Boletus edulis and Lactarius deliciosus extraradical mycelium in pine forests of central Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De la Varga, Herminia; Águeda, Beatriz; Ágreda, Teresa; Martínez-Peña, Fernando; Parladé, Javier; Pera, Joan

    2013-07-01

    The annual belowground dynamics of extraradical soil mycelium and sporocarp production of two ectomycorrhizal fungi, Boletus edulis and Lactarius deliciosus, have been studied in two different pine forests (Pinar Grande and Pinares Llanos, respectively) in Soria (central Spain). Soil samples (five per plot) were taken monthly (from September 2009 to August 2010 in Pinar Grande and from September 2010 to September 2011 in Pinares Llanos) in eight permanent plots (four for each site). B. edulis and L. deliciosus extraradical soil mycelium was quantified by real-time polymerase chain reaction, with DNA extracted from soil samples, using specific primers and TaqMan® probes. The quantities of B. edulis soil mycelium did not differ significantly between plots, but there was a significant difference over time with a maximum in February (0.1576 mg mycelium/g soil) and a minimum in October (0.0170 mg mycelium/g soil). For L. deliciosus, significant differences were detected between plots and over time. The highest amount of mycelium was found in December (1.84 mg mycelium/g soil) and the minimum in February (0.0332 mg mycelium/g soil). B. edulis mycelium quantities were positively correlated with precipitation of the current month and negatively correlated with the mean temperature of the previous month. Mycelium biomass of L. deliciosus was positively correlated with relative humidity and negatively correlated with mean temperature and radiation. No significant correlation between productivity of the plots with the soil mycelium biomass was observed for any of the two species. No correlations were found between B. edulis sporocarp production and weather parameters. Sporocarp production of L. deliciosus was positively correlated with precipitation and relative humidity and negatively correlated with maximum and minimum temperatures. Both species have similar distribution over time, presenting an annual dynamics characterized by a seasonal variability, with a clear increase

  6. Dynamic use of geoscience information to develop scientific understanding for a nuclear waste repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cook, N.G.W.; Tsang, C.F.

    1990-01-01

    This paper discusses the development and safety evaluation of a nuclear waste geologic repository. Scientific understanding dependent upon information from a number of geoscience disciplines is described. A discussion is given on the dynamic use of the information through the different stages. The authors point out the need for abstracting, deriving and updating a quantitative spatial and process model (QSPM) to develop a scientific understanding of site responses as a crucial element in the dynamic procedure

  7. Relative influence of plant quality and natural enemies on the seasonal dynamics of Bemisia tabaci (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae) in cotton.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asiimwe, Peter; Naranjo, Steven E; Ellsworth, Peter C

    2013-06-01

    The abundance and distribution of insect herbivores is determined by, among other things, plant quality and natural enemies. These two factors vary temporally and spatially, subsequently affecting seasonal population dynamics. The relative influence of plant quality and natural enemies on the seasonal dynamics of Bemisia tabaci (Gennadius) was investigated in a 3-yr field study in cotton. Plant quality was manipulated through varying irrigation regimes: irrigations done at 20, 40, and 60% soil water depletions; and natural enemy densities were manipulated using broad spectrum insecticide applications that reduced their densities compared with unsprayed controls. In each year, densities of B. tabaci eggs, large nymphs and adults were consistently higher when natural enemy densities were reduced compared with when they were left unaltered, regardless of irrigation regime. In contrast, effects of plant quality on densities of all whitefly stages were weak and inconsistent. In addition, natural enemy densities and predator:prey ratios also were not generally affected by plant quality. Interactions between natural enemies and plant quality on whitefly dynamics were rare. In general, whitefly densities were elevated two-thirds of the time and increased two- to sixfold when natural enemy densities were reduced compared with plant quality effects which influenced whitefly densities about one-third of the time and were expressed inconsistently over the years. This indicates that natural enemies exert a comparatively greater influence on seasonal dynamics of B. tabaci in cotton than plant quality, as manipulated by differential irrigation.

  8. Can Dynamic Visualizations Improve Middle School Students' Understanding of Energy in Photosynthesis?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryoo, Kihyun; Linn, Marcia C.

    2012-01-01

    Dynamic visualizations have the potential to make abstract scientific phenomena more accessible and visible to students, but they can also be confusing and difficult to comprehend. This research investigates how dynamic visualizations, compared to static illustrations, can support middle school students in developing an integrated understanding of…

  9. Seasonal dynamics of soil CO2 emission in the boreal forests in Central Siberia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makhnykina, A. V.; Prokishkin, A. S.; Zyryanov, V.; Verkhovets, S. V.

    2016-12-01

    A large amount of carbon in soil is released to the atmosphere through soil respiration, which is the main pathway of transferring carbon from terrestrial ecosystems (Comstedt et al., 2011). Considering that boreal forests is a large terrestrial sink (Tans et al., 1990) and represent approximately 11 % of the Earth's total land area (Gower et al., 2001), even a small change in soil respiration could significantly intensify - or mitigate - current atmospheric increases of CO2, with potential feedbacks to climate change. The objectives of the present study are: (a) to study the dynamic of CO2emission from the soil surface during summer season (from May to October); (b) to identify the reaction of soil respiration to different amount of precipitation as the main limiting factor in the region. The research was carried out in the pine forests in Central Siberia (60°N, 90°E), Russia. Sample plots were represented by the lichen pine forest, moss pine forest, mixed forest and anthropogenic destroyed area. We used the automated soil CO2 flux system based on the infrared gas analyzer LI-8100 for measuring the soil efflux. Soil temperature was measured with Soil Temperature Probe Type E in three depths 5, 10, 15 cm. Volumetric soil moisture was measured with Theta Probe Model ML2. The presence and type of ground cover substantially affects the value of soil respiration fluxes. The carbon dioxide emission from the soil surface averaged was 5.4 ±2.3 μmol CO2 m-2 s-1. The destroyed area without plant cover demonstrated the lowest soil respiration (0.1-5.6 μmol CO2 m-2 s-1). The lowest soil respiration among forested areas was observed in the feathermoss pine forest. The lichen pine forest soil respiration was characterized by averages values. The maximum soil respiration values and seasonal fluctuations were obtained in the mixed forest (2.3-29.3 μmol CO2 m-2 s-1). The analysis of relation between soil CO2 efflux and amount of precipitation showed that the site without any

  10. A model for sea lice (Lepeophtheirus salmonis dynamics in a seasonally changing environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew A. Rittenhouse

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Sea lice (Lepeophtheirus salmonis are a significant source of monetary losses on salmon farms. Sea lice exhibit temperature-dependent development rates and salinity-dependent mortality, but to date no deterministic models have incorporated these seasonally varying factors. To understand how environmental variation and life history characteristics affect sea lice abundance, we derive a delay differential equation model and parameterize the model with environmental data from British Columbia and southern Newfoundland. We calculate the lifetime reproductive output for female sea lice maturing to adulthood at different times of the year and find differences in the timing of peak reproduction between the two regions. Using a sensitivity analysis, we find that sea lice abundance is more sensitive to variation in mean annual water temperature and mean annual salinity than to variation in life history parameters. Our results suggest that effective sea lice management requires consideration of site-specific temperature and salinity patterns and, in particular, that the optimal timing of production cycles and sea lice treatments might vary between regions.

  11. Seasonal surface ocean circulation and dynamics in the Philippine Archipelago region during 2004-2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Weiqing; Moore, Andrew M.; Levin, Julia; Zhang, Bin; Arango, Hernan G.; Curchitser, Enrique; Di Lorenzo, Emanuele; Gordon, Arnold L.; Lin, Jialin

    2009-06-01

    The dynamics of the seasonal surface circulation in the Philippine Archipelago (117°E-128°E, 0°N-14°N) are investigated using a high-resolution configuration of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) for the period of January 2004-March 2008. Three experiments were performed to estimate the relative importance of local, remote and tidal forcing. On the annual mean, the circulation in the Sulu Sea shows inflow from the South China Sea at the Mindoro and Balabac Straits, outflow into the Sulawesi Sea at the Sibutu Passage, and cyclonic circulation in the southern basin. A strong jet with a maximum speed exceeding 100 cm s -1 forms in the northeast Sulu Sea where currents from the Mindoro and Tablas Straits converge. Within the Archipelago, strong westward currents in the Bohol Sea carry the surface water of the western Pacific (WP) from the Surigao Strait into the Sulu Sea via the Dipolog Strait. In the Sibuyan Sea, currents flow westward, which carry the surface water from the WP near the San Bernardino Strait into the Sulu Sea via the Tablas Strait. These surface currents exhibit strong variations or reversals from winter to summer. The cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation during winter (summer) in the Sulu Sea and seasonally reversing currents within the Archipelago region during the peak of the winter (summer) monsoon result mainly from local wind forcing, while remote forcing dominates the current variations at the Mindoro Strait, western Sulu Sea and Sibutu passage before the monsoons reach their peaks. The temporal variations (with the mean removed), also referred to as anomalies, of volume transports in the upper 40 m at eight major Straits are caused predominantly by remote forcing, although local forcing can be large during sometime of a year. For example, at the Mindoro Strait, the correlation between the time series of transport anomalies due to total forcing (local, remote and tides) and that due only to the remote forcing is 0.81 above 95

  12. Seasonal dynamics of phytoplankton in two tropical rivers of varying size and human impact in Southeast Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Okechukwu Idumah Okogwu

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Phytoplankton occurrence and dynamics in rivers are mainly shaped by hydrophysical conditions and nutrient availability. Phytoplankton main structuring factors have been poorly studied in West African rivers, and this study was undertaken to identify these conditions in two tropical rivers that vary in size and human impact. For this, environmental variables and phytoplankton monthly samples were collected from the middle reaches of Asu and Cross rivers during an 18 months survey from March 2005-July 2006. Phytoplankton biomass (F=11.87, p=0.003, Shannon-Weiner diversity and species richness (F=5.93, p=0.003 showed significant seasonality in Asu but not in Cross River. Data was analyzed with Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA and showed environmental differences between the two rivers, nitrate in Asu River (5.1-15.5mg/L was significantly higher than Cross River (0.03-1.7mg/L, while PO4 (0.2-0.9mg/L was significantly lower in Asu River compared to Cross River (0.03-2.6mg/L (p<0.05. Eutrophic factors (NO3 determined primarily phytoplankton dynamics in Asu River, especially during the dry season, whereas hydrophysical factors (depth, transparency and temperature shaped phytoplankton in Cross River. Taxa indicative of an eutrophic condition, such as Euglena, Chlorella, Chlorococcus, Ceratium, Peridinium, Anabaena, Aphanizomenon, Closterium, Scenedesmus and Pediastrum spp., were frequently encountered in the shallow impounded Asu River, while riverine species, such as Frustulia rhomboids, Gyrosigma sp., Opephora martyr and Surirella splendida dominated Cross River. A succession pattern was observed in the functional groups identified: Na/MP→TB→P (rainy→dry season was observed in Asu River, whereas MP/D predominated in Cross River for both seasons. We concluded that, if nutrients predominate hydrophysical factors in shaping phytoplankton during dry season (half of the year then, they are as important as hydrophysical factors structuring

  13. Influence of Seasonal Food Availability on the Dynamics of Seabird Feeding Flocks at a Coastal Upwelling Area.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristóbal Anguita

    Full Text Available The formation of multi-species feeding flocks (MSFFs through visual recruitment is considered an important strategy for obtaining food in seabirds and its functionality has been ascribed to enhanced foraging efficiency. Its use has been demonstrated in much of the world's oceans and includes numerous species. However, there is scant information on the temporal stability of the composition and abundance of MSFFs as well as the effect of seasonal food availability on their dynamics. Between July 2006 and September 2014, we conducted monthly at-sea seabird counts at Valparaiso Bay (32°56' to 33°01'S, 71°36' to 71°46'W within the area of influence of the Humboldt Current in central Chile. This area is characterized by a marked seasonality in primary and secondary production associated with upwelling, mainly during austral spring-summer. Based on studies that provide evidence that flocking is most frequent when food is both scarce and patchy, we hypothesized that seabird MSFF attributes (i.e. frequency of occurrence, abundance and composition will be modified according to the seasonal availability of food. Using generalized linear models (GLMs, our results show that the contrasting seasonality in food availability of the study area (using chlorophyll-a concentration as a proxy had no significant influence on MSFF attributes, sparsely explaining their variations (P>0.05. Rather than seasonal food availability, the observed pattern for MSFF attributes at Valparaiso Bay suggests a substantial influence of reproductive and migratory (boreal and austral migrants habits of birds that modulates MSFF dynamics consistently throughout the whole year in this highly variable and patchy environment. We highlight the importance of visual recruitment as a mechanism by which migratory and resident birds interact. This would allow them to reduce resource unpredictability, which in turn has a major impact on structuring seabird's MSFF dynamics.

  14. Influence of Seasonal Food Availability on the Dynamics of Seabird Feeding Flocks at a Coastal Upwelling Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anguita, Cristóbal; Simeone, Alejandro

    2015-01-01

    The formation of multi-species feeding flocks (MSFFs) through visual recruitment is considered an important strategy for obtaining food in seabirds and its functionality has been ascribed to enhanced foraging efficiency. Its use has been demonstrated in much of the world's oceans and includes numerous species. However, there is scant information on the temporal stability of the composition and abundance of MSFFs as well as the effect of seasonal food availability on their dynamics. Between July 2006 and September 2014, we conducted monthly at-sea seabird counts at Valparaiso Bay (32°56′ to 33°01′S, 71°36′ to 71°46′W) within the area of influence of the Humboldt Current in central Chile. This area is characterized by a marked seasonality in primary and secondary production associated with upwelling, mainly during austral spring-summer. Based on studies that provide evidence that flocking is most frequent when food is both scarce and patchy, we hypothesized that seabird MSFF attributes (i.e. frequency of occurrence, abundance and composition) will be modified according to the seasonal availability of food. Using generalized linear models (GLMs), our results show that the contrasting seasonality in food availability of the study area (using chlorophyll-a concentration as a proxy) had no significant influence on MSFF attributes, sparsely explaining their variations (P>0.05). Rather than seasonal food availability, the observed pattern for MSFF attributes at Valparaiso Bay suggests a substantial influence of reproductive and migratory (boreal and austral migrants) habits of birds that modulates MSFF dynamics consistently throughout the whole year in this highly variable and patchy environment. We highlight the importance of visual recruitment as a mechanism by which migratory and resident birds interact. This would allow them to reduce resource unpredictability, which in turn has a major impact on structuring seabird’s MSFF dynamics. PMID:26125630

  15. Examining Dynamical Processes of Tropical Mountain Hydroclimate, Particularly During the Wet Season, Through Integration of Autonomous Sensor Observations and Climate Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hellstrom, R. A.; Fernandez, A.; Mark, B. G.; Covert, J. M.

    2016-12-01

    Peru is facing imminent water resource issues as glaciers retreat and demand increases, yet limited observations and model resolution hamper understanding of hydrometerological processes on local to regional scales. Much of current global and regional climate studies neglect the meteorological forcing of lapse rates (LRs) and valley and slope wind dynamics on critical components of the Peruvian Andes' water-cycle, and herein we emphasize the wet season. In 2004 and 2005 we installed an autonomous sensor network (ASN) within the glacierized Llanganuco Valley, Cordillera Blanca (9°S), consisting of discrete, cost-effective, automatic temperature loggers located along the valley axis and anchored by two automatic weather stations. Comparisons of these embedded hydrometeorological measurements from the ASN and climate modeling by dynamical downscaling using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) elucidate distinct diurnal and seasonal characteristics of the mountain wind regime and LRs. Wind, temperature, humidity, and cloud simulations suggest that thermally driven up-valley and slope winds converging with easterly flow aloft enhance late afternoon and evening cloud development which helps explain nocturnal wet season precipitation maxima measured by the ASN. Furthermore, the extreme diurnal variability of along-valley-axis LR, and valley wind detected from ground observations and confirmed by dynamical downscaling demonstrate the importance of realistic scale parameterizations of the atmospheric boundary layer to improve regional climate model projections in mountainous regions. We are currently considering to use intermediate climate models such as ICAR to reduce computing cost and we continue to maintain the ASN in the Cordillera Blanca.

  16. Spread dynamics of perennial pepperweed (Lepidium latifolium) in two seasonal wetland areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renz, Mark J.; Steinmaus, Scott J.; Gilmer, David S.; DiTomaso, Joseph M.

    2012-01-01

    Perennial pepperweed is an invasive plant that is expanding rapidly in several plant communities in the western United States. In California, perennial pepperweed has aggressively invaded seasonal wetlands, resulting in degradation of habitat quality. We evaluated the rate and dynamics of population spread, assessed the effect of disturbance on spread, and determined the biotic and abiotic factors influencing the likelihood of invasion. The study was conducted at eight sites within two wetland regions of California. Results indicate that in undisturbed sites, spread was almost exclusively through vegetative expansion, and the average rate of spread was 0.85 m yr−1 from the leading edge. Spread in sites that were disked was more than three times greater than in undisturbed sites. While smaller infestations increased at a faster rate compared with larger populations, larger infestations accumulated more newly infested areas than smaller infestations from year to year. Stem density was consistently higher in the center of the infestations, with about 2.4 times more stems per square meter compared with the leading edge at the perimeter of the population. The invasion by perennial pepperweed was positively correlated with increased water availability but was negatively correlated with the cover of perennial and annual species. Thus, high cover of resident vegetation can have a suppressive effect on the rate of invasion, even in wetland ecosystems. On the basis of these results, we recommend that resident plant cover not be disturbed, especially in wet areas adjacent to areas currently infested with perennial pepperweed. For infested areas, management efforts should be prioritized to focus on controlling satellite populations as well as the leading edge of larger infestations first. This strategy could reduce the need for costly active restoration efforts by maximizing the probability of successful re-establishment of resident vegetation from the adjacent seedbank.

  17. Seasonal Dynamics of Academic Achievement Inequality by Socioeconomic Status and Race/Ethnicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quinn, David M.; Cooc, North; McIntyre, Joe; Gomez, Celia J.

    2016-01-01

    Early studies examining seasonal variation in academic achievement inequality generally concluded that socioeconomic test score gaps grew more over the summer than the school year, suggesting schools served as "equalizers." In this study, we analyze seasonal trends in socioeconomic status (SES) and racial/ethnic test score gaps using…

  18. Seasonal dynamics of the inorganic pollution in a Niger Delta River ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The level of inorganic anions of the Eleme River over the rainy and dry season periods was investigated. Results indicated that parameters like temperature, conductivity and total dissolved solids were higher during the dry than rainy seasons. Others like pH, phosphate, sulfate and dissolved oxygen had higher rainy than ...

  19. Seasonal dynamics of the microbiome of chernozems of the long-term agrochemical experiment in Kamennaya Steppe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chernov, T. I.; Tkhakakhova, A. K.; Ivanova, E. A.; Kutovaya, O. V.; Turusov, V. I.

    2015-12-01

    The seasonal variability (spring-summer-autumn) of the taxonomic structure of prokaryotic microbiomes in chernozems of Kamennaya Steppe was studied using sequencing of the 16S rRNA gene. The samples were collected from the topsoil (0-20 cm) horizons of a long-term fallow and croplands differing in the rates of application of mineral fertilizers (NPK). The seasonal dynamics of the prokaryotic community in the soils of the fallow and croplands were similar: the summer samples significantly differed from the spring ones; in autumn, the microbiome structure approached that in spring; these changes were probably related to corresponding changes in the temperature and moisture conditions of the growing season. For all the plots, significant seasonal changes in the proportions of Thaumarchaeota (Cranarchaeota), Acidobacteria, Bacteroidetes, Firmicutes, and V errucomicrobia phylogenetic groups were observed. The significant changes in the structure of the microbiomes (especially in the number of representatives of the Firmicutes, Cemmatiomonadetes, and Verrucomicrobia phyla) were revealed in the arable and fallow soils irrespectively of the season. The phylogenetic diversity estimated by the Shannon index, the number of the operating taxonomic units found, and the Chao1 index differed little in the soils of the studies plots. The long-term application of mineral fertilizers at different rates had little effect on the taxonomic structure and diversity of prokaryotic communities in the agrochernozems.

  20. Improving dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) simulation of western U.S. rangelands vegetation seasonal phenology and productivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerns, B. K.; Kim, J. B.; Day, M. A.; Pitts, B.; Drapek, R. J.

    2017-12-01

    Ecosystem process models are increasingly being used in regional assessments to explore potential changes in future vegetation and NPP due to climate change. We use the dynamic global vegetation model MAPSS-Century 2 (MC2) as one line of evidence for regional climate change vulnerability assessments for the US Forest Service, focusing our fine tuning model calibration from observational sources related to forest vegetation. However, there is much interest in understanding projected changes for arid rangelands in the western US such as grasslands, shrublands, and woodlands. Rangelands provide many ecosystem service benefits and local rural human community sustainability, habitat for threatened and endangered species, and are threatened by annual grass invasion. Past work suggested MC2 performance related to arid rangeland plant functional types (PFT's) was poor, and the model has difficulty distinguishing annual versus perennial grasslands. Our objectives are to increase the model performance for rangeland simulations and explore the potential for splitting the grass plant functional type into annual and perennial. We used the tri-state Blue Mountain Ecoregion as our study area and maps of potential vegetation from interpolated ground data, the National Land Cover Data Database, and ancillary NPP data derived from the MODIS satellite. MC2 historical simulations for the area overestimated woodland occurrence and underestimated shrubland and grassland PFT's. The spatial location of the rangeland PFT's also often did not align well with observational data. While some disagreement may be due to differences in the respective classification rules, the errors are largely linked to MC2's tree and grass biogeography and physiology algorithms. Presently, only grass and forest productivity measures and carbon stocks are used to distinguish PFT's. MC2 grass and tree productivity simulation is problematic, in particular grass seasonal phenology in relation to seasonal patterns

  1. Density and climate influence seasonal population dynamics in an Arctic ungulate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Lars O.; Moshøj, Charlotte; Forchhammer, Mads C.

    2016-01-01

    The locally migratory behavior of the high arctic muskox (Ovibos muschatus) is a central component of the breeding and winter survival strategies applied to cope with the highly seasonal arctic climate. However, altered climate regimes affecting plant growth are likely to affect local migration...... cover), forage availability (length of growth season), and the number of adult females available per male (operational sex ratio) influence changes in the seasonal density dependence, abundance, and immigration rate of muskoxen into the valley. The results suggested summer temperature as the major...... controlling factor in the seasonal, local-scale migration of muskoxen at Zackenberg. Specifically, higher summer temperatures, defined as the cumulative average daily positive degrees in June, July, and August, resulted in decreased density dependence and, consequently, increase in the seasonal abundance...

  2. Seasonal dynamics of Proteocephalus sagittus in the stone loach Barbatula barbatula from the Haná River, Czech Republic

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Jarkovský, J.; Koubková, B.; Scholz, Tomáš; Prokeš, Miroslav; Baruš, Vlastimil

    2004-01-01

    Roč. 78, č. 3 (2004), s. 225-229 ISSN 0022-149X R&D Projects: GA ČR GA524/01/1314; GA AV ČR IAA6093104 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z6022909; CEZ:AV0Z6093917 Keywords : Cestoda * Proteocephalus sagittus * seasonal dynamics Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 0.676, year: 2004

  3. Simulation of the fate and seasonal variations of α-hexachlorocyclohexane in Lake Chaohu using a dynamic fugacity model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kong, Xiang-zhen; He, Wei; Qin, Ning; He, Qi-Shuang; Yang, Bin; Ouyang, Huiling; Wang, Qingmei; Yang, Chen; Jiang, Yujiao; Xu, Fuliu

    2012-01-01

    Fate and seasonal variations of α-hexachlorocyclohexane (α-HCH) were simulated using a dynamic fugacity model in Lake Chaohu, China. Sensitivity analyses were performed to identify influential parameters and Monte Carlo simulation was conducted to assess model uncertainty. The calculated and measured values of the model were in good agreement except for suspended solids, which might be due to disregarding the plankton in water. The major source of α-HCH was an input from atmospheric advection, while the major environmental outputs were atmospheric advection and sediment degradation. The net annual input and output of α-HCH were approximately 0.294 t and 0.412 t, respectively. Sediment was an important sink for α-HCH. Seasonal patterns in various media were successfully modeled and factors leading to this seasonality were discussed. Sensitivity analysis found that parameters of source and degradation were more important than the other parameters. The sediment was influenced more by various parameters than air and water were. Temperature variation had a greater impact on the dynamics of the model output than other dynamic parameters. Uncertainty analysis showed that the model uncertainty was relatively low but significantly increased in the second half of the simulation period due to the increase in the gas-water diffusion flux variability.

  4. Effect of Prophylactic Ankle-Brace Use During a High School Competitive Basketball Season on Dynamic Postural Control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crockett, Nathan J; Sandrey, Michelle A

    2015-08-01

    Few studies have evaluated the long-term effects of prophylactic ankle-brace use during a sport season. To determine the effects of prophylactic ankle-brace use during a high school basketball season on dynamic postural control and functional tests. Prospective repeated-measures design. High school athletic facility. 21 healthy high school basketball athletes (13 girls, 8 boys). The order of testing was randomized using the Star Excursion Balance Test (SEBT) for posteromedial (PM), medial (M), and anteromedial (AM) directions and 3 functional tests (FT) consisting of the single-leg crossover hop, single-leg vertical jump, and the single-leg 6-m hop for time at pre-, mid-, and postseason. After pretesting, the ankle brace was worn on both limbs during the entire 16-wk competitive basketball season. SEBT for PM, M, and AM and 3 single-leg FTs. Dynamic postural control using the SEBT and the 3 FTs improved over time, notably from pretest to posttest. The left limb was different from the right limb during the single-leg vertical jump. Effect sizes were large for pretest to posttest for the 3 SEBT directions and 2 of the 3 FTs. The 16-wk basketball prophylactic ankle-brace intervention significantly improved dynamic postural control and single-limb FTs over time.

  5. [Seasonal dynamics of soil organic carbon and active organic carbon fractions in Calamagrostis angustifolia wetlands topsoil under different water conditions].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Cui-Cui; Song, Chang-Chun; Li, Ying-Chen; Guo, Yue-Dong

    2011-01-01

    The experiment was carried in Sanjiang Plain in the northeast of China during the growing season in 2009. Soil organic carbon (SOC), as well as the soil active organic carbon fractions in the 0-20 cm soil layer of Calamagrostis angustifolia wetland under different water conditions were on monthly observation. Based on the research and indoor analysis, the seasonal dynamics of light fractions of soil organic carbon (LFOC) and microbial biomass carbon (MBC) were analyzed. The results indicated that the SOC contents had significantly seasonal dynamics, and the hydrological circle had apparently driving effect on LFOC and MBC during the growing season, especially under the seasonal flooded condition. The freeze-thaw process reduced the SOC, LFOC, MBC contents, with the decreases of 74.53%, 80.93%, 83.09%, while both carbon contents of light and heavy fractions were reduced at the same time. The result also showed that the seasonal flooding condition increased the proportion of LFOC in topsoil, which was larger in marsh meadow (13.58%) than in wet meadow (11.96%), whilst the MBC in marsh meadow (1 397.21 mg x kg(-1)) was less than the latter (1 603.65 mg x kg(-1)), proving that the inundated environment inhibited the mineralization and decomposition of organic matter. But the microbial activity could be adaptive to the flooding condition. During the growing season the MBC soared to 1 829.21 mg x kg(-1) from 337.56 mg x kg(-1) in July, and the microbial quotient was 1.51 times higher than that in June, indicating the high microbial efficacy of soil organic matter. Meanwhile, there was a significant correlation between the contents of LFOC and SOC (r = 0.816), suggesting that higher LFOC content was favorable to the soil carbon accumulation. Moreover, in the seasonal flooded Calamagrostis angustifolia wetland the soil LFOC content was significantly correlated with MBC (r = 0.95), implying that the available carbon source had more severe restriction on the microbial

  6. Spatial and Seasonal Dynamics of Water Environmental Capacity in Mountainous Rivers of the Southeastern Coast, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Qiankun; Jiang, Jingang; Jing, Changwei; Qi, Jiaguo

    2018-01-09

    The south-east littoral is one of the most populous and developed regions in China suffering from serious water pollution problems, and the Xian-Jiang Basin in the mid of this region is among the most polluted watersheds. Critical information is needed but lacking for improved pollution control and water quality assessment, among which water environmental capacity (WEC) is the most important variable but is difficult to calculate. In this study, a one-dimensional water quality model combined with a matrix calculation algorithm was first developed and calibrated with in-situ observations in the Xian-Jiang basin. Then, the model was applied to analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of WEC of the entire basin. The results indicated that, in 2015, the total pollutant discharges into the river reached 6719.68 t /yr, 488.12 t /yr, and 128.57 t /yr for COD, NH₃-N and TP, respectively. The spatial pattern suggested a strong correlation between these water contaminants and industrial enterprises, residential areas, and land-use types in the basin. Furthermore, it was noticed that there was a significant seasonal pattern in WEC that the dry season pollution is much greater than that in the plum season, while that in the typhoon season appears to be the weakest among all seasons. The WEC differed significantly among the 24 sub-basins during the dry season but varied to a smaller extent in other seasons, suggesting differential complex spatial-temporal dependency of the WEC.

  7. On the seasonal transition from winter to spring in Europe and the "seasonal feeling" relating to "Fasnacht" in comparison with those in East Asia (Toward an interdisciplinary activity on climate and cultural understanding education)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kato, Kuranoshin; Kato, Haruko; Hamaki, Tatsuya

    2016-04-01

    East Asia tends to disappear rapidly, the seasonal feeling there changes considerably also around the middle of February (in spite of the rather lower mean temperature than in early winter). Thus we will also compare with those around Japan. Deeper knowledge on the seasonal cycle would contribute greatly to considering the detailed response of the regional climate to the global-scale impacts such as the global warming, as well as the cultural understanding as mentioned above. Besides, we do think that the recognition of the delicacy of such seasonal feelings would often lead us to an essential insight into comprehending such detailed seasonal cycle of the climate systems. Finally, we will also discuss on the development of interdisciplinary study plan on climate and cultural understanding education, based on the above presentation.

  8. A reduced complexity discrete particle model for understanding the sediment dynamics of steep upland river confluences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tancock, M. J.; Lane, S. N.; Hardy, R. J.

    2012-12-01

    There has been a significant amount of research conducted in order to understand the flow fields at natural river confluences. Much of this has been made possible due to advances in the use of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD). However, much of this research has been conducted on river confluences with negligible water surface slopes and any understanding of the sediment dynamics is largely implied from the flow fields. Therefore, a key challenge is to understand the flow and sediment dynamics of steep river confluences with dynamic boundaries. Two numerical modelling developments are presented which together are capable of increasing our understanding of the sediment dynamics of steep river confluences. The first is the application of a Height-of-Liquid (HOL) model within a CFD framework to explicitly solve the water surface elevation. This is a time-dependent, multiphase treatment of the fluid dynamics which solves for the change in volume of water and air in each vertical column of the mesh. The second is the development of a reduced complexity discrete particle transport model which uses the change in momentum on a spherical particle to predict the transport paths through the flow field determined from CFD simulations. The performance of the two models is tested using field data from a series of highly dynamic, steep gravel-bed confluences on a braidplain of the Borgne d'Arolla, Switzerland. The HOL model is validated against the water surface elevation and flow velocity data and is demonstrated to provide a reliable representation of the flow field in fast-flowing, supercritical flows. In order to validate the discrete particle model, individual particles were tracked using electronic tacheometry. The model is demonstrated to accurately represent the particle tracks obtained in the field and provides a new methodology to understand the dynamic morphology of braid plains.

  9. [Seasonal dynamics of carbon and nitrogen in fine roots and their differences between successive rotation poplar plantations].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yan-ping; Xu, Tan; Zhu, Wan-rui; Wang, Hua-tian; Zhang, Guang-can; Li, Chuan-rong; Jiang, Yue-zhong

    2015-11-01

    In this study, poplar fine roots in two successive rotation plantations were sampled over seasons. Root samples were grouped from first to five orders to examine the seasonal dynamics of carbon and nitrogen contents of poplar fine roots with orders, and compared their differences between two successive rotation plantations, and finally to find the relationships between the fine root growth and the productivity decline of successive rotation poplar plantations. The results showed that non-structure carbohydrates (NSC) content increased significantly with root orders, while nitrogen content decreased. The contents of total carbon and NSC were significantly related to total nitrogen content. Root orders explained 98.2% variance of carbon and nitrogen contents of poplar fine roots, and the difference between rotations only explained 1.7% of variance. Poplar fine roots consisted of more carbon and less nitrogen with root orders, and the seasonal changes in contents of total carbon, total nitrogen and NSC showed significant difference between rotations, while.that of the C:N ratio didn' t show significant difference. Root order and season showed interaction effect on carbon and nitrogen dynamic. The C:N ratio was about 20:1 in lower order roots, and more than 30:1 in higher order roots. The C:N ratio in summer and autumn was significantly less than those in other seasons, while NSC content was the highest in November. This study indicated that the allocation of carbon and nitrogen in fine roots was closely correlated with fine root orders. Both NSC content and C:N ratio were of greatly important ecological significance in fine root turnover and growth regulation.

  10. SPATIOTEMPORAL DYNAMICS OF SURFACE WATER EXTENT FROM THREE DECADES OF SEASONALLY CONTINUOUS LANDSAT TIME SERIES AT SUBCONTINENTAL SCALE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. G. Tulbure

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Surface water is a critical resource in semi-arid areas. The Murray-Darling Basin (MDB of Australia, one of the largest semi-arid basins in the world is aiming to set a worldwide example of how to balance multiple interests (i.e. environment, agriculture and urban use, but has suffered significant water shrinkages during the Millennium Drought (1999-2009, followed by extensive flooding. Baseline information and systematic quantification of surface water (SW extent and flooding dynamics in space and time are needed for managing SW resources across the basin but are currently lacking. To synoptically quantify changes in SW extent and flooding dynamics over MDB, we used seasonally continuous Landsat TM and ETM+ data (1986 – 2011 and generic machine learning algorithms. We further mapped flooded forest at a riparian forest site that experienced severe tree dieback due to changes in flooding regime. We used a stratified sampling design to assess the accuracy of the SW product across time. Accuracy assessment yielded an overall classification accuracy of 99.94%, with producer’s and user’s accuracy of SW of 85.4% and 97.3%, respectively. Overall accuracy was the same for Landsat 5 and 7 data but user’s and producer’s accuracy of water were higher for Landsat 7 than 5 data and stable over time. Our validated results document a rapid loss in SW bodies. The number, size, and total area of SW showed high seasonal variability with highest numbers in winter and lowest numbers in summer. SW extent per season per year showed high interannual and seasonal variability, with low seasonal variability during the Millennium Drought. Examples of current uses of the new dataset will be presented and include (1 assessing ecosystem response to flooding with implications for environmental water releases, one of the largest investment in environment in Australia; (2 quantifying drivers of SW dynamics (e.g. climate, human activity; (3 quantifying changes in SW

  11. Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Surface Water Extent from Three Decades of Seasonally Continuous Landsat Time Series at Subcontinental Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tulbure, M. G.; Broich, M.; Stehman, Stephen V.

    2016-06-01

    Surface water is a critical resource in semi-arid areas. The Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) of Australia, one of the largest semi-arid basins in the world is aiming to set a worldwide example of how to balance multiple interests (i.e. environment, agriculture and urban use), but has suffered significant water shrinkages during the Millennium Drought (1999-2009), followed by extensive flooding. Baseline information and systematic quantification of surface water (SW) extent and flooding dynamics in space and time are needed for managing SW resources across the basin but are currently lacking. To synoptically quantify changes in SW extent and flooding dynamics over MDB, we used seasonally continuous Landsat TM and ETM+ data (1986 - 2011) and generic machine learning algorithms. We further mapped flooded forest at a riparian forest site that experienced severe tree dieback due to changes in flooding regime. We used a stratified sampling design to assess the accuracy of the SW product across time. Accuracy assessment yielded an overall classification accuracy of 99.94%, with producer's and user's accuracy of SW of 85.4% and 97.3%, respectively. Overall accuracy was the same for Landsat 5 and 7 data but user's and producer's accuracy of water were higher for Landsat 7 than 5 data and stable over time. Our validated results document a rapid loss in SW bodies. The number, size, and total area of SW showed high seasonal variability with highest numbers in winter and lowest numbers in summer. SW extent per season per year showed high interannual and seasonal variability, with low seasonal variability during the Millennium Drought. Examples of current uses of the new dataset will be presented and include (1) assessing ecosystem response to flooding with implications for environmental water releases, one of the largest investment in environment in Australia; (2) quantifying drivers of SW dynamics (e.g. climate, human activity); (3) quantifying changes in SW dynamics and

  12. Seasonal dynamics of fecundity and recruitment of Temora longicornis in the Baltic Sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dutz, J; van Beusekom, JEE; Hinrichs, R

    2012-01-01

    ), female prosome length (PL) and weight-specific egg production (spEPR) were compared with the seasonal variations in temperature, salinity, and food concentration and composition. Females reproduced year round with maxima of 9.8 to 12.3 eggs female−1 d−1 in spring and low to moderate egg production during......EPR was dependent on both food availability and PL, which in turn was inversely related to temperature. Salinity had no effect on the seasonal variation in egg production because females maintained their vertical position in water with low seasonal amplitudes in salinity and temperature, presumably to avoid high...... energetic costs due to osmoregulation under fluctuating salinity. Nevertheless, the costs due to osmoregulation during development likely resulted in small female PL, and thus indirectly affected reproduction. Using empirical non-linear regression, 80% of the seasonal variation in egg production of T...

  13. Seasonal dynamics of butterfly population in DAE Campus, Kalpakkam, Tamil Nadu, India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K.J. Hussain

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Seasonal population trends of butterflies inhabiting the campus of Department of Atomic Energy (DAE at Kalpakkam were recorded by setting a permanent line transect of 300m and recording all species of butterflies observed within a 5m distance. The survey yielded 2177 individuals of 56 butterfly species, belonging to the families Nymphalidae, Pieridae, Lycaenidae, Papilionidae and Hesperiidae. Nymphalidae were found to be the dominant family during all seasons. Species richness and abundance were highest during the northeast monsoon and winter periods, indicating that in the southern plains of India butterflies prefer cool seasons for breeding and emergence. The taxonomic structure of the butterflies sampled resembles that of the Western Ghats and other regions of India in two ways: (a dominance of nymphalids and (b peak abundance during wet seasons. A detailed study of ecologically important local butterfly fauna and their host plants is in progress, to construct a butterfly garden in Kalpakkam to attract and support butterflies.

  14. Seasonal genetic variation associated with population dynamics of a poecilogonous polychaete worm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thonig, Anne; Banta, Gary Thomas; Hansen, Benni Winding

    2017-01-01

    Poecilogonous species show variation in developmental mode, with larvae that differ both morphologically and ecologically. The spionid polychaete Pygospio elegans shows variation in developmental mode not only between populations, but also seasonally within populations. We investigated the conseq...

  15. Geophysical monitoring of biogenic gas dynamics in a northern peatland: seasonal variability and implications for production rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comas, X.; Slater, L.; Reeve, A.; Nolan, J.

    2007-12-01

    In-situ biogenic gas dynamics and seasonal variability within a northern peatland in Maine (Caribou Bog) were investigated using a set of high resolution surface ground penetrating radar (GPR) surveys. Measurements were combined with elevation rod (to monitor surface deformation) and gas flux measurements. Spatial variability in gas production was also investigated by comparing two sites with different geological and ecological attributes, and showed a striking dependence on seasonal variability. One site characterized by thick highly humified peat deposits (5-6 m), wooded heath vegetation and open pools showed large ebullition events during the summer season, emitting up to 156 g CH4 m-2 during a single event. The other site characterized by thinner less humified peat deposits (2-3 m) and shrub vegetation showed much smaller ebullition events during the same season (accounting for up to 21 g CH4 m-2). A period of biogenic gas accumulation during the fall and winter (as enhanced by the frozen surficial peat acting as a confining layer) was followed by a large FPG release after the snow/ice melt that released approximately 180 g CH4 m-2 from both sites. Gas production rates were directly estimated from the time series of GPR measurements (ranging between 0.35-1.80 g CH4 m-3 d-1 during periods of biogenic gas accumulation) and reflected strong seasonal and spatial variability. Periods of decreased atmospheric pressure showed certain correspondence with short-period increases in biogenic gas flux (including a very rapid decrease in FPG content associated with an ebullition event that released an estimated 61 g CH4 m-2 in less than 3.5 hours). These results provide insights into the spatial and seasonal variability in production and emission of biogenic gases from northern peatlands

  16. Seasonal dynamics and functioning of the Sylt-Rømø Bight, northern Wadden Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    de la Vega, Camille; Horn, Sabine; Baird, Dan; Hines, David; Borrett, Stuart; Jensen, Lasse Fast; Schwemmer, Philipp; Asmus, Ragnhild; Siebert, Ursula; Asmus, Harald

    2018-04-01

    The Wadden Sea undergoes large seasonal changes in species abundance and biomass comprising its complex food web. This study examined four carbon food web models of the Sylt-Rømø Bight, one for each season. Each flow model consisted of 66 compartments depicting the respective biomass and energy budget of each ecosystem component and the flows between them. Ecological network analysis (ENA), a set of algorithms to evaluate the functioning of ecological networks, was used to assess the seasonal variability in the system properties of the Sylt-Rømø Bight food webs. We used an uncertainty analysis to quantitatively evaluate the significance of inter-seasonal differences. Clear seasonal variation was observed in most of the whole system indicators such as the flow diversity, the effective link density and the relative redundancy which varied by 12.8%, 17.3% and 10.3% respectively between the highest in summer and the lowest during fall and winter, whereas the relevant ascendency ratio was the highest in winter during the least active months. Other indices such as the average mutual information index, which fluctuated between 1.73 in fall and 1.79 in spring, showed no significant variation between seasons. Results from ENA have great potential for ecosystem management, as it provides a holistic assessment of the functioning of ecosystems.

  17. Seasonal dynamic of the occurrence of the gregarines infection of Harpalus rufipes (Coleoptera, Carabidae in agroecosystem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Y. Reshetnyak

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Relationships in the “parasite-host” system are closely interrelated and occur at all levels from the molecular to behavioral and population ones. There are two models of realization of these relations. The first case is when the parasites are uniformly distributed in the host population. High extensiveness of invasion is accompanied by its low intensity. The second case is when a part of host population is infected with parasites, but the negative impact is manifested to the maximum extent. Invasion of the ground beetle Harpalus rufipes (De Geer, 1774, dwelling in sweet corn agroecosystems located in the vicinity of Dnipropetrovsk near Doslidnoe village, by several gregarines species is investigated in this study. H. rufipes is an abundant, ubiquitous species, living in extremely wide range of terrestrial ecosystems, with especially high populations inhabiting anthropogenically transformed environments. H. rufipes has a wide range of feeding. This species is distributed in the Central and Eastern Europe, and introduced to North America. Gregarines were found in the intestines of 20 individuals of H. rufipes from 190 (10.5%: Gregarina ovata Dufour, 1828, G. steini Berndt, 1902, G. amarae (Hammerschmidt, 1839 Frantzius, 1848, Clitellocephalus ophoni (Tuzet and Ormieres, 1956 Clopton, 2002, Torogregarina sphinx Clopton, 1998, Gigaductus macrospora Filipponi, 1948 and G. elongatus (Moriggi, 1943 Filipponi, 1948. There is high level of infestation of C. ophoni and G. steini. At the same time, not more than three species of the gregarines were localized in the beetle body. Seasonal dynamic of occurrence of the gregarines is as follows. Maximal indices of occurrence are found at the end of August (22.2% and minimal ones at the end of June (4.8%. The highest total number of gregarines (383 ind. is recorded at the end of August, the lowest one is fixed at the beginning of September (33 ind.. Indices of gregarine species dominance are as follows

  18. Environmental factors that determine the occurrence and seasonal dynamics of Aphanizomenon flos-aquae

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoshimasa YAMAMOTO

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated the seasonal dynamics of two populations of Aphanizomenon flos-aquae Ralfs ex Bornet & Flahault var. flos-aquae and four populations of A. flos-aquae var. klebahnii Elenkin in eutrophic water bodies over 1 year from February 2006 to January 2007. The growth of A. flos-aquae var. flos-aquae was promoted at high temperatures even if in one case the biomass development was very low when other co-occurring cyanoprokaryotes (Anabaena spp. and Microcystis spp. were abundant. In contrast, the highest density of the other population of A. flos-aquae var. flos-aquae was observed in August when the population density of M. aeruginosa (Kützing Kützing reached an annual peak. A. flos-aquae var. flos-aquae usually bloomed in summer but could also tolerate low temperatures in the winter, and was present in relatively high densities. The populations of A. flos-aquae var. klebahnii observed in this study can be divided into three groups based on preferred temperature; three populations increased in winter, and the other increased in summer. Large biomasses of the low-temperature-adapted A. flos-aquae were observed mainly during winter when population densities of co-occurring cyanoprokaryotes (Anabaena spp., Microcystis spp. and Planktothrix raciborskii (Woloszynska Anagnostidis & Komárek were relatively low or almost absent. The increase in or existence of cooccurring cyanoprokaryotes during the summer resulted in a decrease of the A. flos-aquae population density. It was revealed that high temperatures (20-25 °C are suitable for maintaining A. flos-aquae var. klebahnii strains isolated from the study ponds, implying that low-temperature-adapted A. flos-aquae can grow over a wide range of water temperatures. The high-temperatureadapted A. flos-aquae var. klebahnii co-existed with M. aeruginosa during summer; however, its peak population density was significantly lower than those in previous years when M. aeruginosa was absent

  19. Seasonal dynamic of a shallow freshwater lens due to irrigation in the coastal plain of Ravenna, Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vandenbohede, Alexander; Mollema, Pauline N.; Greggio, Nicolas; Antonellini, Marco

    2014-06-01

    Irrigation in low-lying coastal plains may enhance the formation of fresh groundwater lenses, which counteract salinization of groundwater and soil. This study presents seasonal dynamics of such a freshwater lens and discusses its influence on the salinity distribution of the unconfined aquifer in the coastal plain of Ravenna, Italy, combining field observations with numerical modeling (SEAWAT). The lens originates from an irrigation ditch used as a water reservoir for spray irrigation. The geometry of the freshwater lens shows seasonal differences because of freshwater infiltration during the irrigation season and upconing of deeper saltwater for the remainder of the year. The extent of the freshwater lens is controlled by the presence of nearby drainage ditches. Irrigation also results in a temperature anomaly in the aquifer because of the infiltration of warm water during the irrigation season. The surficial zone in the vicinity of the irrigation ditch is increased considerably in thickness. Finally, different irrigation alternatives and the influence of sea-level rise are simulated. This shows that it is necessary to integrate irrigation planning into the water management strategy of the coastal zone to have maximum benefits for freshening of the aquifer and to make optimal use of the existing infrastructure.

  20. Biological soil crusts exhibit a dynamic response to seasonal rain and release from grazing with implications for soil stability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jimenez, Aguilar A.; Huber-Sannwald, E.; Belnap, J.; Smart, D.R.; Arredondo, Moreno J.T.

    2009-01-01

    In Northern Mexico, long-term grazing has substantially degraded semiarid landscapes. In semiarid systems, ecological and hydrological processes are strongly coupled by patchy plant distribution and biological soil crust (BSC) cover in plant-free interspaces. In this study, we asked: 1) how responsive are BSC cover/composition to a drying/wetting cycle and two-year grazing removal, and 2) what are the implications for soil erosion? We characterized BSC morphotypes and their influence on soil stability under grazed/non-grazed conditions during a dry and wet season. Light- and dark-colored cyanobacteria were dominant at the plant tussock and community level. Cover changes in these two groups differed after a rainy season and in response to grazing removal. Lichens with continuous thalli were more vulnerable to grazing than those with semi-continuous/discontinuous thalli after the dry season. Microsites around tussocks facilitated BSC colonization compared to interspaces. Lichen and cyanobacteria morphotypes differentially enhanced resistance to soil erosion; consequently, surface soil stability depends on the spatial distribution of BSC morphotypes, suggesting soil stability may be as dynamic as changes in the type of BSC cover. Longer-term spatially detailed studies are necessary to elicit spatiotemporal dynamics of BSC communities and their functional role in biotically and abiotically variable environments. ?? 2009 Elsevier Ltd.

  1. Soil N, P, and C dynamics of upland and seasonally flooded forests of the Brazilian Pantanal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George L. Vourlitis

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Seasonal variations in cerrado nutrient availability and mineralization are poorly understood, especially for “hyperseasonal” cerrado, which experiences both flooding and drought over an annual cycle. Here we quantified seasonal variations in soil ammonium (NH4+, phosphorus (P, and organic C (SOC concentration and net mineralization in upland and seasonally flooded cerrado forests of the Brazilian Pantanal, and hypothesized that NH4+, P, and SOC concentrations and net mineralization would decline under flooding and increase during the dry season as soil becomes unsaturated. We found that C and nutrient concentrations and mineralization were significantly affected by seasonal variations in hydrology; however, differences between flooded and upland forests varied over time and were not always related to flooding. Soil extractable P, but not net mineralization, was approximately 10-times higher in the upland forest, while the flooded forest had higher extractable NH4+ concentration than the upland forest under both flooded and drained conditions. Soil C concentration was significantly higher in the upland forest even though C mineralization was similar for both forests. Thus, despite the large seasonal and spatial variations in hydrology, the effects of flooding depended on the particular response variable studied and the season. While a limited survey of the literature indicates that forests exposed to intermittent flooding had on average higher concentrations of extractable NH4+ and P, the upland and hyperseasonal forests studied here were richer in extractable NH4+ (upland and flooded and P (upland compared to other upland and hyperseasonal forests and woodlands. Given that the forests studied here shared nearly a third of the total tree species and had similar physiognomy, these results suggest that nutrient controls on cerrado structural diversity may be similar in upland and hyperseasonal cerrado.

  2. Spatial and Seasonal Dynamics of Water Environmental Capacity in Mountainous Rivers of the Southeastern Coast, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiankun Liu

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The south-east littoral is one of the most populous and developed regions in China suffering from serious water pollution problems, and the Xian-Jiang Basin in the mid of this region is among the most polluted watersheds. Critical information is needed but lacking for improved pollution control and water quality assessment, among which water environmental capacity (WEC is the most important variable but is difficult to calculate. In this study, a one-dimensional water quality model combined with a matrix calculation algorithm was first developed and calibrated with in-situ observations in the Xian-Jiang basin. Then, the model was applied to analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of WEC of the entire basin. The results indicated that, in 2015, the total pollutant discharges into the river reached 6719.68 t/yr, 488.12 t/yr, and 128.57 t/yr for COD, NH3-N and TP, respectively. The spatial pattern suggested a strong correlation between these water contaminants and industrial enterprises, residential areas, and land-use types in the basin. Furthermore, it was noticed that there was a significant seasonal pattern in WEC that the dry season pollution is much greater than that in the plum season, while that in the typhoon season appears to be the weakest among all seasons. The WEC differed significantly among the 24 sub-basins during the dry season but varied to a smaller extent in other seasons, suggesting differential complex spatial-temporal dependency of the WEC.

  3. Statistical-dynamical long-range seasonal forecasting of streamflow with the North-American Multi Model Ensemble (NMME)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slater, Louise; Villarini, Gabriele

    2017-04-01

    There are two main approaches to long-range (monthly to seasonal) streamflow forecasting: statistical approaches that typically relate climate precursors directly to streamflow, and dynamical physically-based approaches in which spatially distributed models are forced with downscaled meteorological forecasts. While the former approach is potentially limited by a lack of physical causality, the latter tends to be complex and time-consuming to implement. In contrast, hybrid statistical-dynamical techniques that use global climate model (GCM) ensemble forecasts as inputs to statistical models are both physically-based and rapid to run, but are a relatively new field of research. Here, we conduct the first systematic multimodel statistical-dynamical forecasting of streamflow using NMME climate forecasts from eight GCMs (CCSM3, CCSM4, CanCM3, CanCM4, GFDL2.1, FLORb01, GEOS5, and CFSv2) across a broad region. At several hundred U.S. Midwest stream gauges with long (50+ continuous years) streamflow records, we fit probabilistic statistical models for seasonal streamflow percentiles ranging from minimum to maximum flows. As predictors, we use basin-averaged values of precipitation, antecedent wetness, temperature, agricultural row crop acreage, and population density. Using the observed data, we select the best-fitting probabilistic model for every site, season, and streamflow percentile (ranging from low to high flows). The best-fitting models are then used to obtain streamflow predictions by incorporating the NMME climate forecasts and the extrapolated agricultural and population time series as predictors. The forecasting skill of our models is assessed using both deterministic and probabilistic verification measures. The influence of the different predictors is evaluated for all streamflow percentiles and across the full range of lead times. Our findings reveal that statistical-dynamical streamflow forecasting produces promising results, which may enable water managers

  4. Reconciling top-down and bottom-up estimates of CO2 fluxes to understand increased seasonal exchange in Northern ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bastos, A.; Ciais, P.; Zhu, D.; Maignan, F.; Wang, X.; Chevallier, F.; Ballantyne, A.

    2017-12-01

    Continuous atmospheric CO2 monitoring data indicate enhanced seasonal exchange in the high-latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere (above 40oN), mainly attributed to terrestrial ecosystems. Whether this enhancement is mostly explained by increased vegetation growth due to CO2 fertilization and warming, or by changes in land-use and land-management practices is still an unsettled question (e.g. Forkel et al. (2016) and Zeng et al. (2013)). Previous studies have shown that models present variable performance in capturing trends in CO2 amplitude at CO2 monitoring sites, and that Earth System Models present large spread in their estimates of such trends. Here we integrate data of atmospheric CO2 exchange in terrestrial ecosystems by a set of atmospheric CO2 inversions and a range of land-surface models to evaluate the ability of models to reproduce changes in CO2 seasonal exchange within the observation uncertainty. We then analyze the factors that explain the model spread to understand if the trend in seasonal CO2 amplitude may indeed be a useful metric to constrain future changes in terrestrial photosynthesis (Wenzel et al., 2016). We then compare model simulations with satellite and other observation-based datasets of vegetation productivity, biomass stocks and land-cover change to test the contribution of natural (CO2 fertilization, climate) and human (land-use change) factors to the increasing trend in seasonal CO2 amplitude. Forkel, Matthias, et al. "Enhanced seasonal CO2 exchange caused by amplified plant productivity in northern ecosystems." Science 351.6274 (2016): 696-699. Wenzel, Sabrina, et al. "Projected land photosynthesis constrained by changes in the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2." Nature 538, no. 7626 (2016): 499-501.Zeng, Ning, et al. "Agricultural Green Revolution as a driver of increasing atmospheric CO2 seasonal amplitude." Nature 515.7527 (2014): 394.

  5. Microscopic dynamics in simple liquids: a clue to understanding the basic thermodynamics of the liquid state

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cabrillo, C; Bermejo, F J; Maira-Vidal, A; Fernandez-Perea, R; Bennington, S M; Martin, D

    2004-01-01

    The advent of inelastic x-ray scattering techniques has prompted a reawakened interest in the dynamics of simple liquids. Such studies are often carried out using simplified models to account for the stochastic dynamics that give rise to quasielastic scattering. The vibrational and diffusive dynamics of molten potassium are studied here by an experiment using neutron scattering and are shown to provide some clues to understand the basic thermodynamics of the liquid state. The findings reported here suggest ways in which the true complementarity of neutron and x-ray scattering may be profitably exploited

  6. Using system dynamics modeling to understand the impact of social change initiatives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirsch, Gary B; Levine, Ralph; Miller, Robin Lin

    2007-06-01

    Community psychologists have a long history of interest in understanding social systems and how to bring about enduring positive change in these systems. However, the methods that community psychologists use to anticipate and evaluate the changes that result from system change efforts are less well developed. In the current paper, we introduce readers to system dynamics modeling, an action research approach to studying complex systems and the consequences of system change. We illustrate this approach by describing a system dynamics model of educational reform. We provide readers with an introduction to system dynamics modeling, as well as describe the strengths and limitations of the approach for application to community psychology.

  7. Seasonal organic matter dynamics in the Great Barrier Reef lagoon: Contribution of carbohydrates and proteins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lønborg, Christian; Doyle, Jason; Furnas, Miles; Menendez, Patricia; Benthuysen, Jessica A.; Carreira, Cátia

    2017-04-01

    Organic matter (OM) plays a fundamental role in sustaining the high productivity of coral reef ecosystems. Carbohydrates and proteins constitute two of the major chemical classes identified in the OM pool and are used as indicators of bioavailability due to their fast turn-over. We conducted three cruises across the southern shelf of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) during the early dry, late dry and wet seasons in 2009-2010 to 1) assess the relative bioavailability of particulate (POM) and dissolved (DOM) organic matter, 2) track the temporal and spatial variability in the carbohydrate and protein contribution to the OM pool, and 3) assess factors influencing protein and carbohydrate fractions of the OM pool. Generally, higher concentrations of particulate carbohydrates were found during the wet season, while similar concentrations of particulate protein were found during the three seasons. Both the dissolved carbohydrates and proteins had highest levels during the early dry season and lowest during the wet season, suggesting seasonal variations in the chemical composition of the DOM pool. Spatially, carbohydrates showed higher concentrations at the inshore stations, while no clear spatial pattern was found for the protein concentrations. On average carbohydrates and proteins accounted for a similar fraction (13±5 and 12±6% respectively) of POM, while carbohydrates accounted for a smaller fraction of the DOM than the proteins (6±3 and 13±10%). This suggests that the POM bioavailability was similar between seasons, while the DOM bioavailability varied seasonally with highest levels during the early dry season. This demonstrates that carbohydrates and proteins in the GBR have temporal and spatial variations. Our statistical analysis showed that 1) both carbohydrates and proteins were related with the POM and DOM C:N:P stoichiometry, demonstrating that both bulk estimates (stoichiometry) and specific compounds (CHO and Prot) provide useful measures of OM

  8. Population-reaction model and microbial experimental ecosystems for understanding hierarchical dynamics of ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosoda, Kazufumi; Tsuda, Soichiro; Kadowaki, Kohmei; Nakamura, Yutaka; Nakano, Tadashi; Ishii, Kojiro

    2016-02-01

    Understanding ecosystem dynamics is crucial as contemporary human societies face ecosystem degradation. One of the challenges that needs to be recognized is the complex hierarchical dynamics. Conventional dynamic models in ecology often represent only the population level and have yet to include the dynamics of the sub-organism level, which makes an ecosystem a complex adaptive system that shows characteristic behaviors such as resilience and regime shifts. The neglect of the sub-organism level in the conventional dynamic models would be because integrating multiple hierarchical levels makes the models unnecessarily complex unless supporting experimental data are present. Now that large amounts of molecular and ecological data are increasingly accessible in microbial experimental ecosystems, it is worthwhile to tackle the questions of their complex hierarchical dynamics. Here, we propose an approach that combines microbial experimental ecosystems and a hierarchical dynamic model named population-reaction model. We present a simple microbial experimental ecosystem as an example and show how the system can be analyzed by a population-reaction model. We also show that population-reaction models can be applied to various ecological concepts, such as predator-prey interactions, climate change, evolution, and stability of diversity. Our approach will reveal a path to the general understanding of various ecosystems and organisms. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  9. Seasonal dynamics of crustacean zooplankton community structure in Erhai Lake, a plateau lake, with reference to phytoplankton and environmental factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Wei; Deng, Daogui; Zhang, Sai; Hu, Cuilin

    2014-09-01

    The seasonal dynamics of a crustacean zooplankton community in Erhai Lake was investigated from May 2010 to April 2011. In total, 11 species were recorded, including six (6 genera) cladoceran and five (5 genera) copepod species. The crustacean zooplankton densities ranged from 24.3 to 155.4 ind./L. In winter and spring, the large-bodied cladoceran Daphnia galeata dominated the crustacean plankton community. In summer and autumn, when the colonial or filamentous algae dominated the phytoplankton communities, the small-bodied species (e.g. B osmina fatalis, Ceriodaphnia quadrangular, and Mesocyclops leuckarti) replaced the large-bodied ones. One-way ANOVA and redundancy analysis revealed that community structure was dependent upon total nitrogen, total phosphorus, water temperature, transparency, and the biomass of small algae. The variation in both phytoplankton structure and environmental variables were important factors in the seasonal succession of crustacean zooplankton structure in Erhai Lake.

  10. Seasonal Prediction of Regional Surface Air Temperature and First-flowering Date in South Korea using Dynamical Downscaling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahn, J. B.; Hur, J.

    2015-12-01

    The seasonal prediction of both the surface air temperature and the first-flowering date (FFD) over South Korea are produced using dynamical downscaling (Hur and Ahn, 2015). Dynamical downscaling is performed using Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) v3.0 with the lateral forcing from hourly outputs of Pusan National University (PNU) coupled general circulation model (CGCM) v1.1. Gridded surface air temperature data with high spatial (3km) and temporal (daily) resolution are obtained using the physically-based dynamical models. To reduce systematic bias, simple statistical correction method is then applied to the model output. The FFDs of cherry, peach and pear in South Korea are predicted for the decade of 1999-2008 by applying the corrected daily temperature predictions to the phenological thermal-time model. The WRF v3.0 results reflect the detailed topographical effect, despite having cold and warm biases for warm and cold seasons, respectively. After applying the correction, the mean temperature for early spring (February to April) well represents the general pattern of observation, while preserving the advantages of dynamical downscaling. The FFD predictabilities for the three species of trees are evaluated in terms of qualitative, quantitative and categorical estimations. Although FFDs derived from the corrected WRF results well predict the spatial distribution and the variation of observation, the prediction performance has no statistical significance or appropriate predictability. The approach used in the study may be helpful in obtaining detailed and useful information about FFD and regional temperature by accounting for physically-based atmospheric dynamics, although the seasonal predictability of flowering phenology is not high enough. Acknowledgements This work was carried out with the support of the Rural Development Administration Cooperative Research Program for Agriculture Science and Technology Development under Grant Project No. PJ009953 and

  11. Dynamics of the water circulations in the southern South China Sea and its seasonal transports

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Daryabor, Farshid; Ooi, See Hai Ooi; Samah, Azizan Abu

    2016-01-01

    circulations. Analysis of climatological data from a high resolution Regional Ocean Modeling System reveals that the complex bathymetry is important not only for water exchange through the Southern South China Sea but also in regulating various transports across the main passages in the Southern South China......A three-dimensional Regional Ocean Modeling System is used to study the seasonal water circulations and transports of the Southern South China Sea. The simulated seasonal water circulations and estimated transports show consistency with observations, e.g., satellite altimeter data set and re......-analysis data of the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation. It is found that the seasonal water circulations are mainly driven by the monsoonal wind stress and influenced by the water outflow/inflow and associated currents of the entire South China Sea. The intrusion of the strong current along the East Coast...

  12. Seasonal Dynamics of Mobile Carbon Supply in Quercus aquifolioides at the Upper Elevational Limit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Wan-Ze; Cao, Min; Wang, San-Gen; Xiao, Wen-Fan; Li, Mai-He

    2012-01-01

    Many studies have tried to explain the physiological mechanisms of the alpine treeline phenomenon, but the debate on the alpine treeline formation remains controversial due to opposite results from different studies. The present study explored the carbon-physiology of an alpine shrub species (Quercus aquifolioides) grown at its upper elevational limit compared to lower elevations, to test whether the elevational limit of alpine shrubs (carbon limitation or growth limitation. We studied the seasonal variations in non-structural carbohydrate (NSC) and its pool size in Q. aquifolioides grown at 3000 m, 3500 m, and at its elevational limit of 3950 m above sea level (a.s.l.) on Zheduo Mt., SW China. The tissue NSC concentrations along the elevational gradient varied significantly with season, reflecting the season-dependent carbon balance. The NSC levels in tissues were lowest at the beginning of the growing season, indicating that plants used the winter reserve storage for re-growth in the early spring. During the growing season, plants grown at the elevational limit did not show lower NSC concentrations compared to plants at lower elevations, but during the winter season, storage tissues, especially roots, had significantly lower NSC concentrations in plants at the elevational limit compared to lower elevations. The present results suggest the significance of winter reserve in storage tissues, which may determine the winter survival and early-spring re-growth of Q. aquifolioides shrubs at high elevation, leading to the formation of the uppermost distribution limit. This result is consistent with a recent hypothesis for the alpine treeline formation. PMID:22479567

  13. INVESTIGATIONS ABOUT THE SEASONAL DYNAMICS IN THE URBAN ENVIRONMENT ON PLANTAGO MAJOR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adina Daniela DATCU

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an ecophysiological study on Plantago major in the urban environment. The study followed the variations which appear at leaf level depending on season of vegetation, gathering zone, stage of development and the differences between healthy leaves and the ones affected by pathogens or diseases. The analyzed parameter was LRWC –leaf relative water content. The leaf relative water content decreased as the seasons passed regardless of the leaf development stage, being more pronounced for the juvenile samples. At leaf level the most variations were observed in the plants gathered during autumn.

  14. Dynamics in the microbiology of maize silage during whole-season storage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Storm, Ida Marie Lindhardt Drejer; Kristensen, N.B.; Raun, B.M.L.

    2010-01-01

    Aims: To monitor seasonal variations in the microbiology of maize silage and to determine whether the risk of fungal spoilage varies during whole-year storage. Methods and Results: A continuous survey of 20 maize silage stacks was conducted over a period from three to 11 months after ensiling...... variations in the microbiology of maize silage over a whole storage season. The risk of fungal spoilage was highest 5-7 months after ensiling and lowest after 11 months. Significance and Impact of the Study: This information is valuable in the assessment of health risks connected with spoiled maize silage...

  15. Seasonal climate manipulations have only minor effects on litter decomposition rates and N dynamics but strong effects on litter P dynamics of sub-arctic bog species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aerts, R; Callaghan, T V; Dorrepaal, E; van Logtestijn, R S P; Cornelissen, J H C

    2012-11-01

    Litter decomposition and nutrient mineralization in high-latitude peatlands are constrained by low temperatures. So far, little is known about the effects of seasonal components of climate change (higher spring and summer temperatures, more snow which leads to higher winter soil temperatures) on these processes. In a 4-year field experiment, we manipulated these seasonal components in a sub-arctic bog and studied the effects on the decomposition and N and P dynamics of leaf litter of Calamagrostis lapponica, Betula nana, and Rubus chamaemorus, incubated both in a common ambient environment and in the treatment plots. Mass loss in the controls increased in the order Calamagrostis Litter chemistry showed within each incubation environment only a few and species-specific responses. Compared to the interspecific differences, they resulted in only moderate climate treatment effects on mass loss and these differed among seasons and species. Neither N nor P mineralization in the litter were affected by the incubation environment. Remarkably, for all species, no net N mineralization had occurred in any of the treatments during 4 years. Species differed in P-release patterns, and summer warming strongly stimulated P release for all species. Thus, moderate changes in summer temperatures and/or winter snow addition have limited effects on litter decomposition rates and N dynamics, but summer warming does stimulate litter P release. As a result, N-limitation of plant growth in this sub-arctic bog may be sustained or even further promoted.

  16. Computer Assisted Comprehension of Distant Worlds: Understanding Hunger Dynamics in Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moseley, William G.

    2001-01-01

    Describes a computer program called RiskMap. Explains that after completing an assignment on rural economics and hunger dynamics in Africa, students showed an increased level of understanding and felt that using RiskMap was helpful in learning the material. Includes references. (DAJ)

  17. Biometrics Technology: Understanding Dynamics Influencing Adoption for Control of Identification Deception within Nigeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nwatu, Gideon U.

    2011-01-01

    One of the objectives of any government is the establishment of an effective solution to significantly control crime. Identity fraud in Nigeria has generated global attention and negative publicity toward its citizens. The research problem addressed in this study was the lack of understanding of the dynamics that influenced the adoption and…

  18. Dynamic Graphics in Excel for Teaching Statistics: Understanding the Probability Density Function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coll-Serrano, Vicente; Blasco-Blasco, Olga; Alvarez-Jareno, Jose A.

    2011-01-01

    In this article, we show a dynamic graphic in Excel that is used to introduce an important concept in our subject, Statistics I: the probability density function. This interactive graphic seeks to facilitate conceptual understanding of the main aspects analysed by the learners.

  19. Dynamic habitat selection by two wading bird species with divergent foraging strategies in a seasonally fluctuating wetland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beerens, James M.; Gawlik, Dale E.; Herring, Garth; Cook, Mark I.

    2011-01-01

    Seasonal and annual variation in food availability during the breeding season plays an influential role in the population dynamics of many avian species. In highly dynamic ecosystems like wetlands, finding and exploiting food resources requires a flexible behavioral response that may produce different population trends that vary with a species' foraging strategy. We quantified dynamic foraging-habitat selection by breeding and radiotagged White Ibises (Eudocimus albus) and Great Egrets (Ardea alba) in the Florida Everglades, where fluctuation in food resources is pronounced because of seasonal drying and flooding. The White Ibis is a tactile “searcher” species in population decline that specializes on highly concentrated prey, whereas the Great Egret, in a growing population, is a visual “exploiter” species that requires lower prey concentrations. In a year with high food availability, resource-selection functions for both species included variables that changed over multiannual time scales and were associated with increased prey production. In a year with low food availability, resource-selection functions included short-term variables that concentrated prey (e.g., water recession rates and reversals in drying pattern), which suggests an adaptive response to poor foraging conditions. In both years, the White Ibis was more restricted in its use of habitats than the Great Egret. Real-time species—habitat suitability models were developed to monitor and assess the daily availability and quality of spatially explicit habitat resources for both species. The models, evaluated through hindcasting using independent observations, demonstrated that habitat use of the more specialized White Ibis was more accurately predicted than that of the more generalist Great Egret.

  20. Seasonal temperature and precipitation regulate brook trout young-of-the-year abundance and population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanno, Yoichiro; Pregler, Kasey C.; Hitt, Nathaniel P.; Letcher, Benjamin H.; Hocking, Daniel; Wofford, John E.B.

    2015-01-01

    Abundance of the young-of-the-year (YOY) fish can vary greatly among years and it may be driven by several key biological processes (i.e. adult spawning, egg survival and fry survival) that span several months. However, the relative influence of seasonal weather patterns on YOY abundance is poorly understood.

  1. Seasonal Dynamics of Enzymatic Activities and Functional Diversity in Soils under Different Organic Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soil microbial activity and diversity fluctuate seasonally under annual organic amendment for improving soil quality. We investigated the effects of municipal compost (MC), poultry litter (PL), and cover crops of spring oats and red clover (RC) on soil enzyme activities, and soil bacterial community...

  2. Seasonal dynamics of resource partitioning among foliage-gleaning passerines in northern Finland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alatalo, Rauno V

    1980-05-01

    The five most abundant species were included in a year-round study with respect to six foraging niche dimensions. Approximately full multidimensional utilization functions were used for niche metrics. During summer foraging overlaps were invariably high, but in other seasons periodically lower. Foraging site breadth was lower in winter, when fewer sites are profitable for foraging than in summer. Feeding posture versatility, by contrast, was highest in winter. Seasonal foraging shifts were very prominent, as great in fact as between-species differences. Often seasonal trends were parallel in different species. Niche axes of macrohabitat-type (e.g. tree) were more open for foraging variation and axes of microhabitat-type (tree part) more rigid. Among the resident species seasonal variation in foraging was greatest in Regulus regulus and Parus cristatus, whereas the foraging behaviour was more stable for P. montanus (an abundant species with broad niche), perhaps owing to greater intraspecific competition. In these northern forests foliage-gleaners must be versatile generalists to cope with the unpredictable resources, and thus they overlap broadly in their general resource niches which are determined by their genetically fixed cost and benefit relations to each resource type. Anyhow, presumably during periodical food shortage, the actual resource uses adjusted by resource availability and competition may overlap narrowly.

  3. An experimental seasonal hydrological forecasting system over the Yellow River basin - Part 1: Understanding the role of initial hydrological conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Xing; Ma, Feng; Wang, Linying; Zheng, Ziyan; Ma, Zhuguo; Ye, Aizhong; Peng, Shaoming

    2016-06-01

    The hydrological cycle over the Yellow River has been altered by the climate change and human interventions greatly during past decades, with a decadal drying trend mixed with a large variation of seasonal hydrological extremes. To provide support for the adaptation to a changing environment, an experimental seasonal hydrological forecasting system is established over the Yellow River basin. The system draws from a legacy of a global hydrological forecasting system that is able to make use of real-time seasonal climate predictions from North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) climate models through a statistical downscaling approach but with a higher resolution and a spatially disaggregated calibration procedure that is based on a newly compiled hydrological observation dataset with 5 decades of naturalized streamflow at 12 mainstream gauges and a newly released meteorological observation dataset including 324 meteorological stations over the Yellow River basin. While the evaluation of the NMME-based seasonal hydrological forecasting will be presented in a companion paper to explore the added values from climate forecast models, this paper investigates the role of initial hydrological conditions (ICs) by carrying out 6-month Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) and reverse ESP-type simulations for each calendar month during 1982-2010 with the hydrological models in the forecasting system, i.e., a large-scale land surface hydrological model and a global routing model that is regionalized over the Yellow River. In terms of streamflow predictability, the ICs outweigh the meteorological forcings up to 2-5 months during the cold and dry seasons, but the latter prevails over the former in the predictability after the first month during the warm and wet seasons. For the streamflow forecasts initialized at the end of the rainy season, the influence of ICs for lower reaches of the Yellow River can be 5 months longer than that for the upper reaches, while such a difference

  4. Dynamics and Variability of the Spring Dry Season in the United States Southwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pascolini-Campbell, M.; Seager, R.; Cook, B.; Williams, P.

    2017-12-01

    We investigate the spring dry season occurring in a region of the United States southwest, which receives both winter (DJF) and summer (JAS) monsoon precipitation. The region is characterized by a dual peak in soil moisture with accompanying two-season greening in the spring (MAM) and summer. We use NLDAS-2 and GLDAS-2 land surface model output, AmeriFlux observations, GIMMS satellite NDVI, SNOTEL snow water equivalence and CMIP5 model output to analyze historical trends from 1948 to present. In recent decades (1998-2016) we note a shift toward i) earlier and greater spring soil moisture draw down, ii) decreased snow depth, iii) earlier snow melt, and iv) earlier spring vegetation green up compared to a prior wet period (1979-1997). The more recent decades have also experienced a marked increase in mean spring temperatures. Using a simple soil moisture balance model, we find precipitation in the winter-spring is the main driver of the shift in the region. The increased temperature is apparently less important in driving the observed changes. An earlier dry period (1948 - 1979) is also characterized by lower spring soil moisture, associated with decreased spring precipitation. Decadal variability of the timing and magnitude of the spring dry season is influenced in part by tropical Pacific and Atlantic SSTs. This natural variability is apparently the dominant driver of seasonal shifts in the region, with a lesser role played by human-driven temperature increases. Future changes in the spring dry season will therefore be affected by both how tropical decadal variability evolves and expected drying to human-driven climate change. These changes will be important for ecological response, fire risk and spring low streamflows.

  5. Seasonal dynamics of microbial community composition and function in oak canopy and open grassland soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waldrop, M.P.; Firestone, M.K.

    2006-01-01

    Soil microbial communities are closely associated with aboveground plant communities, with multiple potential drivers of this relationship. Plants can affect available soil carbon, temperature, and water content, which each have the potential to affect microbial community composition and function. These same variables change seasonally, and thus plant control on microbial community composition may be modulated or overshadowed by annual climatic patterns. We examined microbial community composition, C cycling processes, and environmental data in California annual grassland soils from beneath oak canopies and in open grassland areas to distinguish factors controlling microbial community composition and function seasonally and in association with the two plant overstory communities. Every 3 months for up to 2 years, we monitored microbial community composition using phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) analysis, microbial biomass, respiration rates, microbial enzyme activities, and the activity of microbial groups using isotope labeling of PLFA biomarkers (13C-PLFA) . Distinct microbial communities were associated with oak canopy soils and open grassland soils and microbial communities displayed seasonal patterns from year to year. The effects of plant species and seasonal climate on microbial community composition were similar in magnitude. In this Mediterranean ecosystem, plant control of microbial community composition was primarily due to effects on soil water content, whereas the changes in microbial community composition seasonally appeared to be due, in large part, to soil temperature. Available soil carbon was not a significant control on microbial community composition. Microbial community composition (PLFA) and 13C-PLFA ordination values were strongly related to intra-annual variability in soil enzyme activities and soil respiration, but microbial biomass was not. In this Mediterranean climate, soil microclimate appeared to be the master variable controlling

  6. Understanding long-term fruit fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) population dynamics: implications for areawide management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aluja, Martín; Ordano, Mariano; Guillén, Larissa; Rull, Juan

    2012-06-01

    Fruit flies (Diptera: Tephritidae) are devastating agricultural pests worldwide but studies on their long-term population dynamics are sparse. Our aim was to determine the mechanisms driving long-term population dynamics as a prerequisite for ecologically based areawide pest management. The population density of three pestiferous Anastrepha species [Anastrepha ludens (Loew), Anastrepha obliqua (Macquart), and Anastrepha serpentina (Wiedemann)] was determined in grapefruit (Citrus x paradisi Macfad.), mango (Mangifera indica L.), and sapodilla [Manilkara zapota (L.) P. Royen] orchards in central Veracruz, México, on a weekly basis over an 11-yr period. Fly populations exhibited relatively stable dynamics over time. Population dynamics were mainly driven by a direct density-dependent effect and a seasonal feedback process. We discovered direct and delayed influences that were correlated with both local (rainfall and air temperature) and global climatic variation (El Niño Southern Oscillation [ENSO] and North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO]), and detected differences among species and location of orchards with respect to the magnitude and nature (linear or nonlinear) of the observed effects, suggesting that highly mobile pest outbreaks become uncertain in response to significant climatic events at both global and local levels. That both NAO and ENSO affected Anastrepha population dynamics, coupled with the high mobility of Anastrepha adults and the discovery that when measured as rate of population change, local population fluctuations exhibited stable dynamics over time, suggests potential management scenarios for the species studied lie beyond the local scale and should be approached from an areawide perspective. Localized efforts, from individual growers will probably prove ineffective, and nonsustainable.

  7. Dynamic use of geoscience information to develop scientific understanding for a nuclear waste repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cook, N.G.W.; Tsang, C.F.

    1990-01-01

    The development and safety evaluation of a nuclear waste geologic repository require a proper scientific understanding of the site response. Such scientific understanding depends on information from a number of geoscience disciplines, including geology, geophysics, geochemistry, geomechanics and hydrogeology. The information comes in four stages: (1) general regional survey data base, (2) surface-based testing, (3) exploratory shaft testing, and (4) repository construction and evaluation. A discussion is given on the dynamic use of the information through the different stages. We point out the need for abstracting, deriving and updating a quantitative spatial and process model (QSPM) to develop a scientific understanding of site responses as a crucial element in the dynamic procedure. 2 figs

  8. The impact of seasonal changes in stratification on the dynamics of internal waves in the Sea of Okhotsk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oxana E. Kurkina

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The properties and dynamics of internal waves in the ocean crucially depend on the vertical structure of water masses. We present detailed analysis of the impact of spatial and seasonal variations in the density-driven stratification in the Sea of Okhotsk on the properties of the classic kinematic and nonlinear parameters of internal waves in this water body. The resulting maps of the phase speed of long internal waves and coefficients at various terms of the underlying Gardner’s equation make it possible to rapidly determine the main properties of internal solitary waves in the region and to choose an adequate set of parameters of the relevant numerical models. It is shown that the phase speed of long internal waves almost does not depend on the particular season. The coefficient at the quadratic term of the underlying evolution equation is predominantly negative in summer and winter and therefore internal solitons usually have negative polarity. Numerical simulations of the formation of internal solitons and solibores indicate that seasonal variations in the coefficient at the cubic term of Gardner’s equation lead to substantial variations in the shape of solibores.

  9. Economic factors influencing zoonotic disease dynamics: demand for poultry meat and seasonal transmission of avian influenza in Vietnam.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delabouglise, Alexis; Choisy, Marc; Phan, Thang D; Antoine-Moussiaux, Nicolas; Peyre, Marisa; Vu, Ton D; Pfeiffer, Dirk U; Fournié, Guillaume

    2017-07-19

    While climate is often presented as a key factor influencing the seasonality of diseases, the importance of anthropogenic factors is less commonly evaluated. Using a combination of methods - wavelet analysis, economic analysis, statistical and disease transmission modelling - we aimed to explore the influence of climatic and economic factors on the seasonality of H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in the domestic poultry population of Vietnam. We found that while climatic variables are associated with seasonal variation in the incidence of avian influenza outbreaks in the North of the country, this is not the case in the Centre and the South. In contrast, temporal patterns of H5N1 incidence are similar across these 3 regions: periods of high H5N1 incidence coincide with Lunar New Year festival, occurring in January-February, in the 3 climatic regions for 5 out of the 8 study years. Yet, daily poultry meat consumption drastically increases during Lunar New Year festival throughout the country. To meet this rise in demand, poultry production and trade are expected to peak around the festival period, promoting viral spread, which we demonstrated using a stochastic disease transmission model. This study illustrates the way in which economic factors may influence the dynamics of livestock pathogens.

  10. Seasonal dynamics of the fish assemblage in a floodplain lake at the confluence of the Negro and Amazon Rivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Röpke, C P; Amadio, S A; Winemiller, K O; Zuanon, J

    2016-07-01

    The temporal effect of discharge and limnology on fish composition and species diversity in a floodplain lake at the confluence of the Amazon and Negro Rivers was evaluated. Species richness, abundance and assemblage composition were strongly influenced by seasonal discharge of the Amazon and Negro Rivers, which affects lateral connectivity, water conductivity and temperature. As a consequence, temporal β-diversity was high in the lake and the assemblage was dominated by seasonally transient species. Relatively large species known to feed on resources within the floodplain were captured almost exclusively during the flood period. During the dry season, the assemblage was dominated by fishes adapted to harsh conditions of high temperature and low dissolved oxygen concentrations. An open system with high spatial and temporal heterogeneity created by the meeting of two large rivers with different water chemistry, Lago Catalão has a dynamic fish assemblage. Given its high temporal β-diversity and abundance of fishes, many of great importance in local fisheries, Lago Catalão and other floodplain lakes in this region merit special attention for conservation. © 2015 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

  11. Autotrophic and heterotrophic metabolism of microbial planktonic communities in an oligotrophic coastal marine ecosystem: seasonal dynamics and episodic events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonilla-Findji, O.; Gattuso, J.-P.; Pizay, M.-D.; Weinbauer, M. G.

    2010-11-01

    A 18 month study was performed in the Bay of Villefranche to assess the episodic and seasonal variation of autotrophic and heterotrophic ecosystem processes. A typical spring bloom was encountered, where maximum of gross primary production (GPP) was followed by maxima of bacterial respiration (BR) and production (BP). The trophic balance (heterotrophy vs. autotrophy) of the system did not exhibit any seasonal trend although a strong intra-annual variability was observed. On average, the community tended to be net heterotrophic with a GPP threshold for a balanced metabolism of 1.1 μmol O2 l-1 d-1. Extended forest fires in summer 2003 and a local episodic upwelling in July 2003 likely supplied orthophosphate and nitrate into the system. These events were associated with an enhanced bacterioplankton production (up to 2.4-fold), respiration (up to 4.5-fold) and growth efficiency (up to 2.9-fold) but had no effect on GPP. A Sahara dust wet deposition event in February 2004 stimulated bacterial abundance, production and growth efficiency but not GPP. Our study suggests that short-term disturbances such as wind-driven upwelling, forest fires and Sahara dust depositions can have a significant but previously not sufficiently considered influence on phytoplankton- and bacterioplankton-mediated ecosystem functions and can modify or even mask the seasonal dynamics. The study also indicates that atmospheric deposition of nutrients and particles not only impacts phytoplankton but also bacterioplankton and could, at times, also shift systems stronger towards net heterotrophy.

  12. Characterization and risk assessment of seasonal and weather dynamics in organic pollutant mixtures from discharge of a separate sewer system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beckers, Liza-Marie; Busch, Wibke; Krauss, Martin; Schulze, Tobias; Brack, Werner

    2018-05-15

    Sites of wastewater discharge are hotspots for pollution of freshwaters with organic micropollutants and are often associated with adverse effects to aquatic organisms. The assessment, monitoring and managment of these hotspots is challenged by variations in the pollutant mixture composition due to season, weather conditions and random spills. In this study, we unraveled temporal exposure patterns in organic micropollutant mixtures from wastewater discharge and analyzed respective acute and sublethal risks for aquatic organisms. Samples were taken from two components of a separate sewer system i) a wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) and ii) a rain sewer of a medium size town as well as from the receiving river in different seasons. Rain sewer samples were separately collected for rain and dry - weather conditions. We analyzed 149 compounds by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). By considering the pollution dynamics in the point sources, we reduced the complexity of pollutant mixtures by k-means clustering to a few emission groups representing temporal and weather-related pollution patterns. From these groups, we derived biological quality element (BQE) - specific risk patterns. In most cases, one main risk driving emission group and a few individual risk driving compounds were identified for each BQE. While acute risk for fish was quite low, algae were exposed to seasonally emitted herbicides (terbuthylazine, spiroxamine) and crustaceans to randomly spilled insecticides (diazinon, dimethoate). Sublethal risks for all BQE were strongly influenced by constantly emitted pollutants, above all, pharmaceuticals. Variability of risks in the river was mainly driven by water discharge of the river rather than by season or peak events. Overall, the studied WWTP represented the major pollution source with a specific emission of agricultural compounds. However, the investigated rain sewer showed to be a constant pollution source due to illicit connections

  13. A study of the seasonal dynamics of three phycoperiphytic communities using nuclear track autoradiography. Pt. 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pip, E.; Robinson, G.G.C.

    1982-01-01

    Net inorganic carbon uptake was examined for algal periphytic communities on Potamogeton richardsonii, P. praelongus and P. zosteriformis in a shallow lake. Nuclear track autoradiography was used to examine uptake for individual taxa comprising the communities. Net uptake rates per unit cell surface area were strongly correlated during the season for certain algal taxa, particularly diatoms, on the same macrophyte. The correlated taxa formed a different correlation cluster for each macrophyte. Although several of the same algal taxa appeared in the correlation clusters for different macrophytes, the behavior of a given taxon was only rarely correlated on different macrophytes. Each cluster behaved as an independent unit. Such organized behavior may be important in algal succession. Principal component analysis of the species-time uptake matrix isolated 3 main principal components that accounted for > 95% of the seasonal variation on all 3 macrophytes. (orig.)

  14. Seasonal and spatial dynamics of gas ebullition in a temperate water-storage reservoir

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Tušer, Michal; Picek, T.; Sajdlová, Zuzana; Jůza, Tomáš; Muška, Milan; Frouzová, Jaroslava

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 53, č. 10 (2017), s. 8266-8276 ISSN 0043-1397 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP504/12/1186; GA MŠk(CZ) LM2015075; GA MŠk(CZ) EF16_013/0001782 Institutional support: RVO:60077344 Keywords : ebullitive flux * hydroacoustics * methane * river impoundment * season Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology OBOR OECD: Marine biology, freshwater biology, limnology Impact factor: 4.397, year: 2016

  15. Seasonal dynamics of the phytoplankton community in the Gandia coastal area, southern Gulf of Valencia

    OpenAIRE

    Gadea, I.; Rodilla, M.; Sospedra, J.; Falco, S.; Morata, T.

    2013-01-01

    [EN] Seasonal variability in the phytoplankton community of the coastal area of Gandia in the south of the Gulf of Valencia (Western Mediterranean Sea) was examined in relation to physical and chemical surface water variables (i.e. salinity, nutrients, dissolved oxygen and temperature). This small area presents most of the point and non-point nutrients inputs that affect coastal areas as wastewater discharges through submarine outfall, river discharges and groundwater discharges from a detrit...

  16. The seasonal cycle of mixed layer dynamics and phytoplankton biomass in the Sub-Antarctic Zone: A high-resolution glider experiment

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Swart, S

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In the Southern Ocean there is increasing evidence that seasonal to subseasonal temporal scales, meso- and submesoscales play an important role in understanding the sensitivity of ocean primary productivity to climate change. In this study, high...

  17. Seasonal dynamics of the shoreline vegetation in the Zapatosa floodplain lake complex, Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Udo Schmidt-Mumm

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Floodplain lakes and associated wetlands in tropical dry climates are controlled by pronounced and severe seasonal hydrologic fluctuations. We examined the plant community response to a bimodal flooding pattern in the Zapatosa Floodplain Lake Complex (ZFLC, Northern Colombia. We measured floristic and quantitative change in four sampling periods emphasizing seasonal differences in plant abundance and life-form structure. Of 79 species identified in the lake complex, 52 were used to characterize eight community types via classification and ordination procedures. Results showed that community structure does not change significantly during the flooding/receding stages. But maximum drawdown phase significantly disrupts the aquatic community structure and the exposed shorelines become colonized by ruderal terrestrial plants. Early rainfalls at the beginning of the wet season are emphasized as an important feature of plant regeneration and community development. The general strategy of the ZFLC vegetation can be framed into the flood pulse concept of river-floodplain systems. Thus, plant communities are mainly responding to disturbances and destruction events imposed by extreme water level fluctuations. Rev. Biol. Trop. 62 (3: 1073-1097. Epub 2014 September 01.

  18. Growing season carries stronger contributions to albedo dynamics on the Tibetan plateau.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Li; Chen, Jiquan; Zhang, Yangjian

    2017-01-01

    The Tibetan Plateau has experienced higher-than-global-average climate warming in recent decades, resulting in many significant changes in ecosystem structure and function. Among them is albedo, which bridges the causes and consequences of land surface processes and climate. The plateau is covered by snow/ice and vegetation in the non-growing season (nGS) and growing season (GS), respectively. Based on the MODIS products, we investigated snow/ice cover and vegetation greenness in relation to the spatiotemporal changes of albedo on the Tibetan Plateau from 2000 through 2013. A synchronous relationship was found between the change in GSNDVI and GSalbedo over time and across the Tibetan landscapes. We found that the annual average albedo had a decreasing trend, but that the albedo had slightly increased during the nGS and decreased during the GS. Across the landscapes, the nGSalbedo fluctuated in a synchronous pattern with snow/ice cover. Temporally, monthly snow/ice coverage also had a high correspondence with albedo, except in April and October. We detected clear dependencies of albedo on elevation. With the rise in altitude, the nGSalbedo decreased below 4000 m, but increased for elevations of 4500-5500 m. Above 5500 m, the nGSalbedo decreased, which was in accordance with the decreased amount of snow/ice coverage and the increased soil moisture on the plateau. More importantly, the decreasing albedo in the most recent decade appeared to be caused primarily by lowered growing season albedo.

  19. Seasonal dynamics of the shoreline vegetation in the Zapatosa floodplain lake complex, Colombia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt-Mumm, Udo; Janauer, Georg

    2014-09-01

    Floodplain lakes and associated wetlands in tropical dry climates are controlled by pronounced and severe seasonal hydrologic fluctuations. We examined the plant community response to a bimodal flooding pattern in the Zapatosa Floodplain Lake Complex (ZFLC), Northern Colombia. We measured floristic and quantitative change in four sampling periods emphasizing seasonal differences in plant abundance and life-form structure. Of 79 species identified in the lake complex, 52 were used to characterize eight community types via classification and ordination procedures. Results showed that community structure does not change significantly during the flooding/receding stages. But maximum drawdown phase significantly disrupts the aquatic community structure and the exposed shorelines become colonized by ruderal terrestrial plants. Early rainfalls at the beginning of the wet season are emphasized as an important feature of plant regeneration and community development. The general strategy of the ZFLC vegetation can be framed into the flood pulse concept of river-floodplain systems. Thus, plant communities are mainly responding to disturbances and destruction events imposed by extreme water level fluctuations.

  20. Seasonal dynamics of house dust mites in dust samples collected from sleeping places in north-western Poland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kosik-Bogacka, D I; Kalisinska, E; Henszel, L; Kuzna-Grygiel, W

    2012-02-01

    The most common families of mites found in house dust are Pyroglyphidae, Glycyphagidae and Acaridae; all are a source of many antigens responsible for allergic diseases. The aim of this study was to examine the seasonal dynamics of allergenic mite populations in dust samples collected from sleeping places in apartments in north-western Poland. The mites were isolated from the dust using a saturated saline floating method. In 132 dust samples we determined: Dermatophagoides farinae, Dermatophagoides pteronyssinus, Euroglyphus maynei, Hirstia sp., Chortoglyphus arcuatus, Lepidoglyphus destructor, Gohieria fusca and Cheyletus sp. The greatest frequency was observed for D. farinae, D. pteronyssinus, Ch. arcuatus and Cheyletus sp., in the fourth quarter and D. farinae in the third quarter. Smaller coefficients of dominance were found for D. pteronyssinus, Ch. arcuatus and Cheyletus sp., and their greatest mean concentrations were found in the first and fourth quarters. Given the division of the year into heating and non-heating seasons, mites D. farinae and D. pteronyssinus achieved the highest mean concentration in the first season, and Cheyletus sp. in the second season. The analysis of the participation of developmental stages showed that the adults of D. farinae were more prevalent than juveniles in the first, second and third quarters, and imago stages of D. pteronyssinus were more numerous in relation to juveniles in the first, third and fourth quarters. The results confirm the high incidence of house dust mites in sleeping places in north-western Poland dwellings; the best conditions for the development of these mites, mainly D. farinae and D. pteronyssinus, occur in the fourth quarter and are the least favourable in the second quarter. In many cases, these results are consistent with data from other parts of Poland collected by various authors. © 2011 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  1. Seasonal zooplankton dynamics in Lake Michigan: disentangling impacts of resource limitation, ecosystem engineering, and predation during a critical ecosystem transition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanderploeg, Henry A.; Pothoven, Steven A.; Fahnenstiel, Gary L.; Cavaletto, Joann F.; Liebig, James R.; Stow, Craig Stow; Nalepa, Thomas F.; Madenjian, Charles P.; Bunnell, David B.

    2012-01-01

    We examined seasonal dynamics of zooplankton at an offshore station in Lake Michigan from 1994 to 2003 and 2007 to 2008. This period saw variable weather, declines in planktivorous fish abundance, the introduction and expansion of dreissenid mussels, and a slow decline in total phosphorus concentrations. After the major expansion of mussels into deep water (2007–2008), chlorophyll in spring declined sharply, Secchi depth increased markedly in all seasons, and planktivorous fish biomass declined to record-low levels. Overlaying these dramatic ecosystem-level changes, the zooplankton community exhibited complex seasonal dynamics between 1994–2003 and 2007–2008. Phenology of the zooplankton maximum was affected by onset of thermal stratification, but there was no other discernable effect due to temperature. Interannual variability in zooplankton biomass during 1994 and 2003 was strongly driven by planktivorous fish abundance, particularly age-0 and age-1 alewives. In 2007–2008, there were large decreases in Diacyclops thomasi and Daphnia mendotae possibly caused by food limitation as well as increased predation and indirect negative effects from increases in Bythotrephes longimanus abundance and in foraging efficiency associated with increased light penetration. The Bythotrephes increase was likely driven in part by decreased predation from yearling and older alewife. While there was a major decrease in epilimnetic–metalimnetic herbivorous cladocerans in 2007–2008, there was an increase in large omnivorous and predacious calanoid copepods, especially those in the hypolimnion. Thus, changes to the zooplankton community are the result of cascading, synergistic interactions, including a shift from vertebrate to invertebrate planktivory and mussel ecosystem impacts on light climate and chlorophyll.

  2. Seasonal and interannual dynamics of soil microbial biomass and available nitrogen in an alpine meadow in the eastern part of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Bo; Wang, Jinniu; Wu, Ning; Wu, Yan; Shi, Fusun

    2018-01-01

    Soil microbial activity varies seasonally in frozen alpine soils during cold seasons and plays a crucial role in available N pool accumulation in soil. The intra- and interannual patterns of microbial and nutrient dynamics reflect the influences of changing weather factors, and thus provide important insights into the biogeochemical cycles and ecological functions of ecosystems. We documented the seasonal and interannual dynamics of soil microbial and available N in an alpine meadow in the eastern part of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China, between April 2011 and October 2013. Soil was collected in the middle of each month and analyzed for water content, microbial biomass C (MBC) and N (MBN), dissolved organic C and N, and inorganic N. Soil microbial community composition was measured by the dilution-plate method. Fungi and actinomycetes dominated the microbial community during the nongrowing seasons, and the proportion of bacteria increased considerably during the early growing seasons. Trends of consistently increasing MBC and available N pools were observed during the nongrowing seasons. MBC sharply declined during soil thaw and was accompanied by a peak in available N pool. Induced by changes in soil temperatures, significant shifts in the structures and functions of microbial communities were observed during the winter-spring transition and largely contributed to microbial reduction. The divergent seasonal dynamics of different N forms showed a complementary nutrient supply pattern during the growing season. Similarities between the interannual dynamics of microbial biomass and available N pools were observed, and soil temperature and water conditions were the primary environmental factors driving interannual fluctuations. Owing to the changes in climate, seasonal soil microbial activities and nutrient supply patterns are expected to change further, and these changes may have crucial implications for the productivity and biodiversity of alpine ecosystems.

  3. Seasonal and interannual dynamics of soil microbial biomass and available nitrogen in an alpine meadow in the eastern part of Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Xu

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Soil microbial activity varies seasonally in frozen alpine soils during cold seasons and plays a crucial role in available N pool accumulation in soil. The intra- and interannual patterns of microbial and nutrient dynamics reflect the influences of changing weather factors, and thus provide important insights into the biogeochemical cycles and ecological functions of ecosystems. We documented the seasonal and interannual dynamics of soil microbial and available N in an alpine meadow in the eastern part of Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, China, between April 2011 and October 2013. Soil was collected in the middle of each month and analyzed for water content, microbial biomass C (MBC and N (MBN, dissolved organic C and N, and inorganic N. Soil microbial community composition was measured by the dilution-plate method. Fungi and actinomycetes dominated the microbial community during the nongrowing seasons, and the proportion of bacteria increased considerably during the early growing seasons. Trends of consistently increasing MBC and available N pools were observed during the nongrowing seasons. MBC sharply declined during soil thaw and was accompanied by a peak in available N pool. Induced by changes in soil temperatures, significant shifts in the structures and functions of microbial communities were observed during the winter–spring transition and largely contributed to microbial reduction. The divergent seasonal dynamics of different N forms showed a complementary nutrient supply pattern during the growing season. Similarities between the interannual dynamics of microbial biomass and available N pools were observed, and soil temperature and water conditions were the primary environmental factors driving interannual fluctuations. Owing to the changes in climate, seasonal soil microbial activities and nutrient supply patterns are expected to change further, and these changes may have crucial implications for the productivity and biodiversity of

  4. Seasonal dynamics of the plant community and soil seed bank along a successional gradient in a subalpine meadow on the Tibetan Plateau.

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    Miaojun Ma

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Knowledge about how change the importance of soil seed bank and relationship between seed mass and abundance during vegetation succession is crucial for understanding vegetation dynamics. Many studies have been conducted, but their ecological mechanisms of community assembly are not fully understood. METHODOLOGY: We examined the seasonal dynamics of the vegetation and soil seed bank as well as seed size distribution along a successional gradient. We also explored the potential role of the soil seed bank in plant community regeneration, the relationship between seed mass and species abundance, and the relative importance of deterministic and stochastic processes along a successional gradient. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Species richness of seed bank increased (shallow layer and the total and seed density decreased (each layer and the total significantly with succession. Species richness and seed density differed significantly between different seasons and among soil depths. Seed mass showed a significant negative relationship with relative abundance in the earliest successional stage, but the relationships were not significant in later stages. Seed mass showed no relationship with relative abundance in the whole successional series in seed bank. Results were similar for both July 2005 and April 2006. CONCLUSIONS: The seed mass and abundance relationship was determined by a complex interaction between small and larger seeded species and environmental factors. Both stochastic processes and deterministic processes were important determinants of the structure of the earliest stage. The importance of seed bank decreased with succession. The restoration of abandoned farmed and grazed meadows to the species-rich subalpine meadow in Tibetan Plateau can be successfully achieved from the soil seed bank. However, at least 20 years are required to fully restore an abandoned agricultural meadow to a natural mature subalpine meadow.

  5. Growing season carries stronger contributions to albedo dynamics on the Tibetan plateau.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Tian

    Full Text Available The Tibetan Plateau has experienced higher-than-global-average climate warming in recent decades, resulting in many significant changes in ecosystem structure and function. Among them is albedo, which bridges the causes and consequences of land surface processes and climate. The plateau is covered by snow/ice and vegetation in the non-growing season (nGS and growing season (GS, respectively. Based on the MODIS products, we investigated snow/ice cover and vegetation greenness in relation to the spatiotemporal changes of albedo on the Tibetan Plateau from 2000 through 2013. A synchronous relationship was found between the change in GSNDVI and GSalbedo over time and across the Tibetan landscapes. We found that the annual average albedo had a decreasing trend, but that the albedo had slightly increased during the nGS and decreased during the GS. Across the landscapes, the nGSalbedo fluctuated in a synchronous pattern with snow/ice cover. Temporally, monthly snow/ice coverage also had a high correspondence with albedo, except in April and October. We detected clear dependencies of albedo on elevation. With the rise in altitude, the nGSalbedo decreased below 4000 m, but increased for elevations of 4500-5500 m. Above 5500 m, the nGSalbedo decreased, which was in accordance with the decreased amount of snow/ice coverage and the increased soil moisture on the plateau. More importantly, the decreasing albedo in the most recent decade appeared to be caused primarily by lowered growing season albedo.

  6. Seasonal dynamics and conservative mixing of dissolved organic matter in the temperate eutrophic estuary Horsens Fjord

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Markager, Stiig; Stedmon, Colin; Søndergaard, Morten

    2011-01-01

    % of the freshwater concentration was removed initially at salinities below 12. At higher salinities two general patterns were identified. Concentrations of DON, DOP and four humic fluorescent fractions were not, or only weakly, related to salinity, showing that other processes than mixing were involved. Other......:DOP) in freshwater were 11 and 758, respectively. The DOC:DON ratio increased in the estuary during the productive season to average values between 13 and 17, due to accumulation of DOC and removal of DON. The DOC:DOP ratio decreased within the estuary showing that in general DOM was enriched with phosphorous...

  7. Seasonal dynamics of hoofed mammals’ nematodes in the nature reserve «Dniprovsko-Orilskij»

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    O. O. Boіko

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available In the roes and wild boars inhabited the Dniprovsko-Orilskij Nature Reserve we identified nematodes’ eggs and larvae of orders Strongylida (Dictyocaulus sp., Muellerius sp., Cystocaulus sp., Protostrongylus sp., Ostertagiella sp., Globocephalus sp., Oesophagostomum sp. and Rhabditida (Strongyloides papillosus (Wedl, S. ransomi (Scwartz. The seasonal features in number of the ungulates’ nematodes in the environment are ascertained. It was found that females of palisade worms living in the ungulates’ airways do not release larvae in the environment from October to spring. In autumn the Rhabditida density in the environment is higher than in summer, but inversely, the number of Strongylida of alimentary canal – lower.

  8. Sulfur and Iron Cycling in a Coastal Sediment - Radiotracer Studies and Seasonal Dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    MOESLUND, L.; THAMDRUP, B.; JØRGENSEN, BB

    1994-01-01

    to 2 mm in the oxidized surface layer of the sediment. The radiotracer data were analyzed by a mathematical model which showed that, due to partial, rapid reoxidation of radioactive sulfide during incubation, the actual reduction rates in this layer were probably underestimated 5-fold. In the deeper......, sulfidic zone, measured rates appeared to be correct. Sulfate reduction followed the seasonal variation in temperature with maximum activity at 1-2 cm depth in late summer. In spite of its rapid production, free H2S was detectable in the porewater only below the depth of free Fe2+ at 6-7 cm throughout...

  9. Young children’s understanding of angles in a dynamic geometry environment

    OpenAIRE

    Kaur, Harpreet

    2017-01-01

    Angle is an important topic in geometry. It is a concept that children find challenging to learn, in part because of its multifaceted nature. The purpose of this study is to understand how children’s thinking about angles evolves as they participate in a classroom setting featuring the use of a dynamic geometry environment (DGE) in which the concept of angle as turn was privileged, a concept that does not require a quantitative dimension. Three research questions were proposed for the study, ...

  10. Dynamic Analytical Capability to Better Understand and Anticipate Extremist Shifts Within Populations under Authoritarian Regimes.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernard, Michael Lewis [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-11-01

    The purpose of this work is to create a generalizable data- and theory-supported capability to better understand and anticipate (with quantifiable uncertainty): 1) how the dynamics of allegiance formations between various groups and society are impacted by active conflict and by third-party interventions and 2) how/why extremist allegiances co-evolve over time due to changing geopolitical, sociocultural, and military conditions.

  11. Highly diverse molluscan assemblages of Posidonia oceanica meadows in northwestern Alboran Sea (W Mediterranean): Seasonal dynamics and environmental drivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urra, Javier; Mateo Ramírez, Ángel; Marina, Pablo; Salas, Carmen; Gofas, Serge; Rueda, José L.

    2013-01-01

    The seasonal dynamics of the molluscan fauna associated with the westernmost populations of the Mediterranean seagrass Posidonia oceanica, has been studied throughout an annual cycle in the northwestern coasts of the Alboran Sea. Samples were collected seasonally (5 replicated per season) using a non-destructive sampling technique (airlift sampler) on quadrats of 50 × 50 cm at 2 sites located 7 km apart. Several environmental variables from the water column (temperature, chlorophyll a), the sediment (percentage of organic matter) and the seagrass meadows (shoot density, leaf height and width, number of leaves per shoot) were also measured in order to elucidate their relationships with the dynamics of the molluscan assemblages. In these meadows, a total of 17,416 individuals of molluscs were collected, belonging to 71 families and 171 species, being Rissoidae, Pyramidellidae and Trochidae the best-represented families, and Mytilidae, Nassaridae and Trochidae the dominant ones in terms of abundance. The assemblages were dominated by micro-algal grazers, filter feeders and ectoparasites (including those feeding on sessile preys). The species richness and the abundance displayed significant maximum values in summer, whereas evenness and diversity displayed maximum values in spring, being significant for the evenness. Both abundance and species richness values were positively correlated to seawater temperature and percentage organic matter, only for the latter, and negatively to leaf width. Significant seasonal groupings were obtained with multivariate analyses (MDS, Cluster, ANOSIM) using qualitative and quantitative data that could be mainly related to biological aspects (i.e. recruitment) of single species. The molluscan assemblages are influenced by the biogeographical location of the area (Alboran Sea), reflected in the absence or scarcity of most Mediterranean species strictly associated with P. oceanica (e.g. Tricolia speciosa, Rissoa ventricosa) and by the

  12. Wildfire Dynamics and Occasional Precipitation during Active Fire Season in Tropical Lowland of Nepal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krishna Bahadur Bhujel

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Occasional precipitation plays a vital role in reducing the effect of wildfire. This precipitation is especially important for countries like Nepal, where wildfires are a common seasonal event. Approximately 0.1 million hectare of forest area is affected annually due to wildfires in active fire season. The study on the relation of these forms of occasional precipitation with wildfire incidence is still lacking. This research was objectively carried out to examine the correlation of occasional precipitation with wildfire incidence and burnt area. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spector-Radiometer (MODIS satellite images and precipitation records for 15 years gathered from Department of Hydrology and Metrology were used as input data for this study. The images were analyzed by using ArcGIS function while the precipitation records were analyzed by using Statistical Package for the Social Science (SPSS program. The linear regression model was applied to find correlation of occasional precipitation with wildfire incidence and burnt area. Analysis revealed decreasing trend of precipitation in study area. We found significant correlation (p<0.05 of precipitation with wildfire incidence and burnt area. Findings will be useful for policy makers, implementers and researchers to manage wildfire in sustainable basis.

  13. Cycle length restitution in sinoatrial node cells: a theory for understanding spontaneous action potential dynamics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patric Glynn

    Full Text Available Normal heart rhythm (sinus rhythm is governed by the sinoatrial node, a specialized and highly heterogeneous collection of spontaneously active myocytes in the right atrium. Sinoatrial node dysfunction, characterized by slow and/or asynchronous pacemaker activity and even failure, is associated with cardiovascular disease (e.g. heart failure, atrial fibrillation. While tremendous progress has been made in understanding the molecular and ionic basis of automaticity in sinoatrial node cells, the dynamics governing sinoatrial nodel cell synchrony and overall pacemaker function remain unclear. Here, a well-validated computational model of the mouse sinoatrial node cell is used to test the hypothesis that sinoatrial node cell dynamics reflect an inherent restitution property (cycle length restitution that may give rise to a wide range of behavior from regular periodicity to highly complex, irregular activation. Computer simulations are performed to determine the cycle length restitution curve in the computational model using a newly defined voltage pulse protocol. The ability of the restitution curve to predict sinoatrial node cell dynamics (e.g., the emergence of irregular spontaneous activity and susceptibility to termination is evaluated. Finally, ionic and tissue level factors (e.g. ion channel conductances, ion concentrations, cell-to-cell coupling that influence restitution and sinoatrial node cell dynamics are explored. Together, these findings suggest that cycle length restitution may be a useful tool for analyzing cell dynamics and dysfunction in the sinoatrial node.

  14. Using chemistry and microfluidics to understand the spatial dynamics of complex biological networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kastrup, Christian J; Runyon, Matthew K; Lucchetta, Elena M; Price, Jessica M; Ismagilov, Rustem F

    2008-04-01

    Understanding the spatial dynamics of biochemical networks is both fundamentally important for understanding life at the systems level and also has practical implications for medicine, engineering, biology, and chemistry. Studies at the level of individual reactions provide essential information about the function, interactions, and localization of individual molecular species and reactions in a network. However, analyzing the spatial dynamics of complex biochemical networks at this level is difficult. Biochemical networks are nonequilibrium systems containing dozens to hundreds of reactions with nonlinear and time-dependent interactions, and these interactions are influenced by diffusion, flow, and the relative values of state-dependent kinetic parameters. To achieve an overall understanding of the spatial dynamics of a network and the global mechanisms that drive its function, networks must be analyzed as a whole, where all of the components and influential parameters of a network are simultaneously considered. Here, we describe chemical concepts and microfluidic tools developed for network-level investigations of the spatial dynamics of these networks. Modular approaches can be used to simplify these networks by separating them into modules, and simple experimental or computational models can be created by replacing each module with a single reaction. Microfluidics can be used to implement these models as well as to analyze and perturb the complex network itself with spatial control on the micrometer scale. We also describe the application of these network-level approaches to elucidate the mechanisms governing the spatial dynamics of two networkshemostasis (blood clotting) and early patterning of the Drosophila embryo. To investigate the dynamics of the complex network of hemostasis, we simplified the network by using a modular mechanism and created a chemical model based on this mechanism by using microfluidics. Then, we used the mechanism and the model to

  15. Retrospective Analysis of Communication Events - Understanding the Dynamics of Collaborative Multi-Party Discourse

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cowell, Andrew J.; Haack, Jereme N.; McColgin, Dave W.

    2006-06-08

    This research is aimed at understanding the dynamics of collaborative multi-party discourse across multiple communication modalities. Before we can truly make sig-nificant strides in devising collaborative communication systems, there is a need to understand how typical users utilize com-putationally supported communications mechanisms such as email, instant mes-saging, video conferencing, chat rooms, etc., both singularly and in conjunction with traditional means of communication such as face-to-face meetings, telephone calls and postal mail. Attempting to un-derstand an individual’s communications profile with access to only a single modal-ity is challenging at best and often futile. Here, we discuss the development of RACE – Retrospective Analysis of Com-munications Events – a test-bed prototype to investigate issues relating to multi-modal multi-party discourse.

  16. Seasonal dynamics of plankton in a mountain lake in the southern Alps (Laghetto Inferiore, Switzerland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viera STRAŠKRABOVÁ

    1999-08-01

    Full Text Available The pelagic populations in Laghetto Inferiore (southern Swiss Alps were studied between 1996 and 1998 during the ice-free period. Investigations revealed a considerable number of phytoplankton species but few zooplankton species. The vertical distribution of the main species of algae shows a marked vertical stratification, with higher biomass concentrations in the deep zone. Along this profile, species in the same taxonomic class tend to be distributed at different depths, according to their specific light requirements. During the study period no clear seasonal succession of populations was observed, also because of the influence of precipitation on the biological cycles. On the whole there was a good correspondence between the biomass values of phytoplankton and those of chlorophyll-a, both in integral samples of the whole water column and in the vertical profile.

  17. Seasonal Dynamical Prediction of Coral Bleaching in the Great Barrier Reef, Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spillman, C. M.; Alves, O.

    2009-05-01

    Sea surface temperature (SST) is now recognised as the primary cause of mass coral bleaching events. Coral bleaching occurs during times of stress, particularly when SSTs exceed the coral colony's tolerance level. Global warming is potentially a serious threat to the future of the world's reef systems with predictions by the international community that bleaching will increase in both frequency and severity. Advance warning of anomalous sea surface temperatures, and thus potential bleaching events, would allow for the implementation of management strategies to minimise reef damage. Seasonal SST forecasts from the coupled ocean-atmosphere model POAMA (Bureau of Meteorology) have skill in the Great Barrier Reef (Australia) several months into the future. We will present model forecasts and probabilistic products for use in reef management, and assess model skill in the region. These products will revolutionise the way in which coral bleaching events are monitored and assessed in the Great Barrier Reef and Australian region.

  18. Numerical Simulations of Suspended Sediment Dynamics Due to Seasonal Forcing in the Mekong Coastal Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vu Duy Vinh

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The Mekong River is ranked as the 8th in terms of water discharge and as the 10th in terms of sediment load in the world. During the last 4500 years, its delta prograded more than 250 km to the south due to a tremendous amount of sediments deposited, and turned from a “tide-dominated” delta into a “wave-and-tide dominated” delta. This study aims at completing our knowledge on the fate of sediments that may be stored in estuarine or coastal systems, or dispersed over the continental shelf and slope. Sediment transport in the Mekong River Delta (MRD coastal area was studied by numerical simulations using the Delft3D model. The model configuration was calibrated and validated from data collected in situ during 4 periods from 2012 to 2014. Then, 50 scenarios corresponding to different wave conditions (derived from the wave climate and river discharge values typical of low flow and flood seasons enabled us to quantify the dispersal patterns of fluvial sediments close to the mouths and along the coast. Sediments mostly settled in the estuary and close to the mouths under calm conditions, and suspended sediment with higher concentrations extend further offshore with higher waves. Waves from the Southeast enhanced the concentration all along the MRD coastal zone. Waves from the South and Southwest induced coastal erosion, higher suspended sediment concentrations in front of the southern delta, and a net transport towards the Northeast of the delta. Because of episodes of Southern and Southwestern waves during the low flow season, the net alongshore suspended sediment transport is oriented Northeastward and decreases from the Southwestern part of the coastal zone (~960 × 103 t yr−1 to the Northeastern part (~650 × 103 t yr−1.

  19. Seasonal Dynamics in the Chemistry and Structure of the Fat Bodies of Bumblebee Queens.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alena Votavová

    Full Text Available Insects' fat bodies are responsible for nutrient storage and for a significant part of intermediary metabolism. Thus, it can be expected that the structure and content of the fat body will adaptively change, if an insect is going through different life stages. Bumblebee queens belong to such insects as they dramatically change their physiology several times over their lives in relation to their solitary overwintering, independent colony foundation stage, and during the colony life-cycle ending in the senescent stage. Here, we report on changes in the ultrastructure and lipid composition of the peripheral fat body of Bombus terrestris queens in relation to seasonal changes in the queens' activity. Six life stages are defined and evaluated in particular: pharate, callow, before and after hibernation, egg-laying, and senescence. Transmission electron microscopy revealed that the fat body contained two main cell types-adipocytes and oenocytes. Only adipocytes reveal important changes related to the life phase, and mostly the ration between inclusion and cytoplasm volume varies among particular stages. Both electron microscopy and chemical analyses of lipids highlighted seasonal variability in the quantity of the stored lipids, which peaked prior to hibernation. Triacylglycerols appeared to be the main energy source during hibernation, while the amount of glycogen before and after hibernation remained unchanged. In addition, we observed that the representation of some fatty acids within the triacylglycerols change during the queen's life. Last but not least, we show that fat body cell membranes do not undergo substantial changes concerning phospholipid composition in relation to overwintering. This finding supports the hypothesis that the cold-adaptation strategy of bumblebee queens is more likely to be based on polyol accumulation than on the restructuring of lipid membranes.

  20. The population and seasonal dynamics of weevils developing in the soil of birch stands

    Science.gov (United States)

    E. Kula

    2003-01-01

    Curculionidae developing in the soil of birch stands in an air-polluted region were classified using the method of soil photoeclectors on the basis of their population dynamics (1986-2000) and phenology of their emergence from where they developed. In the course of 15 years we saw two evident culminations in the population density of Polydrusus undatus...

  1. Spatiotemporal model of barley and cereal yellow dwarf virus transmission dynamics with seasonality and plant competition

    Science.gov (United States)

    S.M. Moore; C.A. Manore; V.A. Bokil; E.T. Borer; P.R. Hosseini

    2011-01-01

    Many generalist pathogens are influenced by the spatial distributions and relative abundances of susceptible host species. The spatial structure of host populations can influence patterns of infection incidence (or disease outbreaks), and the effects of a generalist pathogen on host community dynamics in a spatially heterogeneous community may differ from predictions...

  2. Modeling surface energy fluxes and thermal dynamics of a seasonally ice-covered hydroelectric reservoir.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Weifeng; Roulet, Nigel T; Strachan, Ian B; Tremblay, Alain

    2016-04-15

    The thermal dynamics of human created northern reservoirs (e.g., water temperatures and ice cover dynamics) influence carbon processing and air-water gas exchange. Here, we developed a process-based one-dimensional model (Snow, Ice, WAater, and Sediment: SIWAS) to simulate a full year's surface energy fluxes and thermal dynamics for a moderately large (>500km(2)) boreal hydroelectric reservoir in northern Quebec, Canada. There is a lack of climate and weather data for most of the Canadian boreal so we designed SIWAS with a minimum of inputs and with a daily time step. The modeled surface energy fluxes were consistent with six years of observations from eddy covariance measurements taken in the middle of the reservoir. The simulated water temperature profiles agreed well with observations from over 100 sites across the reservoir. The model successfully captured the observed annual trend of ice cover timing, although the model overestimated the length of ice cover period (15days). Sensitivity analysis revealed that air temperature significantly affects the ice cover duration, water and sediment temperatures, but that dissolved organic carbon concentrations have little effect on the heat fluxes, and water and sediment temperatures. We conclude that the SIWAS model is capable of simulating surface energy fluxes and thermal dynamics for boreal reservoirs in regions where high temporal resolution climate data are not available. SIWAS is suitable for integration into biogeochemical models for simulating a reservoir's carbon cycle. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Seasonal population dynamics of Zeuxapta seriolae (Monogenea: Heteraxinidae) parasitising Seriola dumerili (Carangidae) in the Western Mediterranean

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Repulles-Albelda, A.; Kostadinova, Aneta; Raga, J. A.; Montero, F. E.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 193, 1-3 (2013), s. 163-171 ISSN 0304-4017 R&D Projects: GA ČR GBP505/12/G112 Institutional support: RVO:60077344 Keywords : Zeuxapta seriolae * Seriola dumerili * Monogenea * Population dynamics * Western Mediterranean Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 2.545, year: 2013

  4. Spatial and seasonal prokaryotic community dynamics in ponds of increasing salinity of Sfax solar saltern in Tunisia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boujelben, Ines; Gomariz, María; Martínez-García, Manuel; Santos, Fernando; Peña, Arantxa; López, Cristina; Antón, Josefa; Maalej, Sami

    2012-05-01

    The spatial and seasonal dynamics of the halophilic prokaryotic community was investigated in five ponds from Sfax solar saltern (Tunisia), covering a salinity gradient ranging from 20 to 36%. Fluorescence in situ hybridization indicated that, above 24% salinity, the prokaryotic community shifted from bacterial to archaeal dominance with a remarkable increase in the proportion of detected cells. Denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) profiles were rather similar in all the samples analyzed, except in the lowest salinity pond (around 20% salt) where several specific archaeal and bacterial phylotypes were detected. In spite of previous studies on these salterns, DGGE analysis unveiled the presence of microorganisms not previously described in these ponds, such as Archaea related to Natronomonas or bacteria related to Alkalimnicola, as well as many new sequences of Bacteroidetes. Some phylotypes, such as those related to Haloquadratum or to some Bacteroidetes, displayed a strong dependence of salinity and/or magnesium concentrations, which in the case of Haloquadratum could be related to the presence of ecotypes. Seasonal variability in the prokaryotic community composition was focused on two ponds with the lowest (20%) and the highest salinity (36%). In contrast to the crystallized pond, where comparable profiles between autumn 2007 and summer 2008 were obtained, the non-crystallized pond showed pronounced seasonal changes and a sharp succession of "species" during the year. Canonical correspondence analysis of biological and physicochemical parameters indicated that temperature was a strong factor structuring the prokaryotic community in the non-crystallizer pond, that had salinities ranging from 20 to 23.8% during the year.

  5. Autotrophic and heterotrophic metabolism of microbial planktonic communities in an oligotrophic coastal marine ecosystem: seasonal dynamics and episodic events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Bonilla-Findji

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available A 18 month study was performed in the Bay of Villefranche to assess the episodic and seasonal variation of autotrophic and heterotrophic ecosystem processes. A typical spring bloom was encountered, where maximum of gross primary production (GPP was followed by maxima of bacterial respiration (BR and production (BP. The trophic balance (heterotrophy vs. autotrophy of the system did not exhibit any seasonal trend although a strong intra-annual variability was observed. On average, the community tended to be net heterotrophic with a GPP threshold for a balanced metabolism of 1.1 μmol O2 l−1 d−1. Extended forest fires in summer 2003 and a local episodic upwelling in July 2003 likely supplied orthophosphate and nitrate into the system. These events were associated with an enhanced bacterioplankton production (up to 2.4-fold, respiration (up to 4.5-fold and growth efficiency (up to 2.9-fold but had no effect on GPP. A Sahara dust wet deposition event in February 2004 stimulated bacterial abundance, production and growth efficiency but not GPP. Our study suggests that short-term disturbances such as wind-driven upwelling, forest fires and Sahara dust depositions can have a significant but previously not sufficiently considered influence on phytoplankton- and bacterioplankton-mediated ecosystem functions and can modify or even mask the seasonal dynamics. The study also indicates that atmospheric deposition of nutrients and particles not only impacts phytoplankton but also bacterioplankton and could, at times, also shift systems stronger towards net heterotrophy.

  6. Seasonal Dynamics of Bacterioplankton Community Structure in a Eutrophic Lake as Determined by 5S rRNA Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Höfle, Manfred G.; Haas, Heike; Dominik, Katja

    1999-01-01

    Community structure of bacterioplankton was studied during the major growth season for phytoplankton (April to October) in the epilimnion of a temperate eutrophic lake (Lake Plußsee, northern Germany) by using comparative 5S rRNA analysis. Estimates of the relative abundances of single taxonomic groups were made on the basis of the amounts of single 5S rRNA bands obtained after high-resolution electrophoresis of RNA directly from the bacterioplankton. Full-sequence analysis of single environmental 5S rRNAs enabled the identification of single taxonomic groups of bacteria. Comparison of partial 5S rRNA sequences allowed the detection of changes of single taxa over time. Overall, the whole bacterioplankton community showed two to eight abundant (>4% of the total 5S rRNA) taxa. A distinctive seasonal succession was observed in the taxonomic structure of this pelagic community. A rather-stable community structure, with seven to eight different taxonomic units, was observed beginning in April during the spring phytoplankton bloom. A strong reduction in this diversity occurred at the beginning of the clear-water phase (early May), when only two to four abundant taxa were observed, with one taxon dominating (up to 72% of the total 5S rRNA). The community structure during summer stagnation (June and July) was characterized by frequent changes of different dominating taxa. During late summer, a dinoflagellate bloom (Ceratium hirudinella) occurred, with Comamonas acidovorans (β-subclass of the class Proteobacteria) becoming the dominant bacterial species (average abundance of 43% of the total 5S rRNA). Finally, the seasonal dynamics of the community structure of bacterioplankton were compared with the abundances of other major groups of the aquatic food web, such as phyto- and zooplankton, revealing that strong grazing pressure by zooplankton can reduce microbial diversity substantially in pelagic environments. PMID:10388718

  7. Cost-effectiveness of seasonal quadrivalent versus trivalent influenza vaccination in the United States: A dynamic transmission modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brogan, Anita J; Talbird, Sandra E; Davis, Ashley E; Thommes, Edward W; Meier, Genevieve

    2017-03-04

    Trivalent inactivated influenza vaccines (IIV3s) protect against 2 A strains and one B lineage; quadrivalent versions (IIV4s) protect against an additional B lineage. The objective was to assess projected health and economic outcomes associated with IIV4 versus IIV3 for preventing seasonal influenza in the US. A cost-effectiveness model was developed to interact with a dynamic transmission model. The transmission model tracked vaccination, influenza cases, infection-spreading interactions, and recovery over 10 y (2012-2022). The cost-effectiveness model estimated influenza-related complications, direct and indirect costs (2013-2014 US$), health outcomes, and cost-effectiveness. Inputs were taken from published/public sources or estimated using regression or calibration. Outcomes were discounted at 3% per year. Scenario analyses tested the reliability of the results. Seasonal vaccination with IIV4 versus IIV3 is predicted to reduce annual influenza cases by 1,973,849 (discounted; 2,325,644 undiscounted), resulting in 12-13% fewer cases and influenza-related complications and deaths. These reductions are predicted to translate into 18,485 more quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) accrued annually for IIV4 versus IIV3. Increased vaccine-related costs ($599 million; 5.7%) are predicted to be more than offset by reduced influenza treatment costs ($699 million; 12.2%), resulting in direct medical cost saving annually ($100 million; 0.6%). Including indirect costs, savings with IIV4 are predicted to be $7.1 billion (5.6%). Scenario analyses predict IIV4 to be cost-saving in all scenarios tested apart from low infectivity, where IIV4 is predicted to be cost-effective. In summary, seasonal influenza vaccination in the US with IIV4 versus IIV3 is predicted to improve health outcomes and reduce costs.

  8. Computational Cellular Dynamics Based on the Chemical Master Equation: A Challenge for Understanding Complexity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Jie; Qian, Hong

    2010-01-01

    Modern molecular biology has always been a great source of inspiration for computational science. Half a century ago, the challenge from understanding macromolecular dynamics has led the way for computations to be part of the tool set to study molecular biology. Twenty-five years ago, the demand from genome science has inspired an entire generation of computer scientists with an interest in discrete mathematics to join the field that is now called bioinformatics. In this paper, we shall lay out a new mathematical theory for dynamics of biochemical reaction systems in a small volume (i.e., mesoscopic) in terms of a stochastic, discrete-state continuous-time formulation, called the chemical master equation (CME). Similar to the wavefunction in quantum mechanics, the dynamically changing probability landscape associated with the state space provides a fundamental characterization of the biochemical reaction system. The stochastic trajectories of the dynamics are best known through the simulations using the Gillespie algorithm. In contrast to the Metropolis algorithm, this Monte Carlo sampling technique does not follow a process with detailed balance. We shall show several examples how CMEs are used to model cellular biochemical systems. We shall also illustrate the computational challenges involved: multiscale phenomena, the interplay between stochasticity and nonlinearity, and how macroscopic determinism arises from mesoscopic dynamics. We point out recent advances in computing solutions to the CME, including exact solution of the steady state landscape and stochastic differential equations that offer alternatives to the Gilespie algorithm. We argue that the CME is an ideal system from which one can learn to understand “complex behavior” and complexity theory, and from which important biological insight can be gained. PMID:24999297

  9. Ensemble Canonical Correlation Prediction of Seasonal Precipitation Over the United States: Raising the Bar for Dynamical Model Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Shen, S. P.

    2001-01-01

    This paper presents preliminary results of an ensemble canonical correlation (ECC) prediction scheme developed at the Climate and Radiation Branch, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center for determining the potential predictability of regional precipitation, and for climate downscaling studies. The scheme is tested on seasonal hindcasts of anomalous precipitation over the continental United States using global sea surface temperature (SST) for 1951-2000. To maximize the forecast skill derived from SST, the world ocean is divided into non-overlapping sectors. The canonical SST modes for each sector are used as the predictor for the ensemble hindcasts. Results show that the ECC yields a substantial (10-25%) increase in prediction skills for all the regions of the US in every season compared to traditional CCA prediction schemes. For the boreal winter, the tropical Pacific contributes the largest potential predictability to precipitation in the southwestern and southeastern regions, while the North Pacific and the North Atlantic are responsible to the enhanced forecast skills in the Pacific Northwest, the northern Great Plains and Ohio Valley. Most importantly, the ECC increases skill for summertime precipitation prediction and substantially reduces the spring predictability barrier over all the regions of the US continent. Besides SST, the ECC is designed with the flexibility to include any number of predictor fields, such as soil moisture, snow cover and additional local observations. The enhanced ECC forecast skill provides a new benchmark for evaluating dynamical model forecasts.

  10. DYNAMICS OF GEARS, FLEETS, CATCH AND FISHING SEASON OF SMALLSCALE TUNA FISHERIES IN LABUHAN LOMBOK, WEST NUSA TENGGARA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bram Setyadji

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In Indonesia, about 80% of fishing activities are small-scale and play major role both economically and socially. Previous studies mostly concentrated in Java, while in eastern part of Indonesia the information still scarce and limited. The study was conducted from January to December 2013, describes in detail the gears, fleets and catch dynamics of the small-scale tuna fisheries operating based in Labuhan Lombok Coastal Fishing Port (PPP. Labuhan Lombok. Small-scale tuna fishery in Labuhan Lombok are characterized by the small boats less than 10 GT, operating both troll line and hand line simultaneously, targeting large tuna, skipjack tuna and small tuna. Fishing season starts from April to August and influence by southwest monsoon wind and the presence of middleman as the connector between fishers and the market are the main character of the small-scale fisheries business in this area.

  11. Density and Seasonal Dynamics of Bemisia tabaci (Gennadius) Mediterranean on Common Crops and Weeds around Cotton Fields in Northern China

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Xiao-ming; Yang, Nian-wan; Wan, Fang-hao

    2014-01-01

    The density seasonal dynamics of Bemisia tabaci MED were evaluated over two-years in a cotton-growing area in Langfang, Hebei Province, northern China on cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) and six other, co-occurring common plants: common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.), piemarker (Abutilon...... appeared on weeds (the common ragweed and piemarker) about 10 days earlier than on cotton, or the other cultivated plants. The peak population densities were observed over a span of two to three weeks on cotton, starting in early (2010) or mid- (2011) August. The common ragweed growing adjacent to cotton...... increase the population density of B. tabaci MED on cotton, while sunflower could act as a trap crop for decreasing pest pressure on cotton....

  12. Deriving seasonal dynamics in ecosystem properties of semi-arid savanna grasslands from in situ-based hyperspectral reflectance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tagesson, Håkan Torbern; Fensholt, Rasmus; Huber, S.

    2015-01-01

    . Relationships between seasonal dynamics in hyperspectral HCRF and ecosystem properties (biomass, gross primary productivity (GPP), light use efficiency (LUE), and fraction of photosynthetically active radiation absorbed by vegetation (FAPAR)) were analysed. HCRF data (ρ) were used to study the relationship...... were shortwave infrared (biomass), the peak absorption band for chlorophyll a and b (at 682 nm) (GPP), the oxygen A band at 761 nm used for estimating chlorophyll fluorescence (GPP and LUE), and blue wavelengths (ρ412) (FAPAR). The NDSI with the strongest correlation to (i) biomass combined red......-edge HCRF (ρ705) with green HCRF (ρ587), (ii) GPP combined wavelengths at the peak of green reflection (ρ518, ρ556), (iii) LUE combined red (ρ688) with blue HCRF (ρ436), and (iv) FAPAR combined blue (ρ399) and near-infrared (ρ1295) wavelengths. NDSIs combining near infrared and shortwave infrared were...

  13. Seasonal population dynamics of Brachyiulus jawlowskii (Diplopoda, Julidae in the Dnieper river arena

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. G. Gudym

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available We have researched the population dynamics of Brachyiulus jawlowskii Lohmander, 1928 in the arena of the Dnepr river (within the "Dnieper-Orilsky” Nature Reserve and also present a full picture of the habitat distribution of Julidae within the researched area. The tested models were basic types of arena biogeocenosis: sand steppe, black maple forests, artificial pine plantations, deciduous forest, meadow and swamp. Variation in population density of B. jawlowskii is determined by biotopical features. The swamp and meadow habitats can be characterized by the highest level of population dynamics. B. jawlowskii plays the greatest role in the herpetobiont grouping in swamp and oak forest habitats (6.7% and 4.6% respectively. In other types of habitat this species composes 0.1–3.5% of the total abundance of this group. The highest abundance dynamic was reached by the Julidae cenopopulations which inhabit the swamp, oak forest and meadow habitats. B. jawlowskii occupies a relatively significant share in the herpetobiont communities of these habitats. Thus, the indicators of absolute number of this species and its relative participation in the herpertobiont grouping indicate the preference of this species for marsh, oak forest and meadow habitats. These habitats can be characterized by an excessive or moderate level of edaphotopic humidification. The ecosystem of the steppe zone of Ukraine is subject to significant human impact. In nature reserves, this effect is minimized, which permits research to be conducted on regimes of natural population dynamics. We established that B. jawlowskii inhabits all habitats investigated within the arena zone of the Dnepr river. This indicates that this is an environmentally flexible Julidae species. The population dynamics of B. jawlowskii can be characterized by three distinct periods: spring-summer, summer and autumn. Each of these periods is characterized by a distinct population dynamic, but throughout the

  14. Toward Understanding the Dynamics of Microbial Communities in an Estuarine System

    KAUST Repository

    Zhang, Weipeng

    2014-04-14

    Community assembly theories such as species sorting theory provide a framework for understanding the structures and dynamics of local communities. The effect of theoretical mechanisms can vary with the scales of observation and effects of specific environmental factors. Based on 16S rRNA gene tag pyrosequencing, different structures and temporal succession patterns were discovered between the surface sediments and bottom water microbial communities in the Pearl River Estuary (PRE). The microbial communities in the surface sediment samples were more diverse than those in the bottom water samples, and several genera were specific for the water or sediment communities. Moreover, water temperature was identified as the main variable driving community dynamics and the microbial communities in the sediment showed a greater temporal change. We speculate that nutrient-based species sorting and bacterial plasticity to the temperature contribute to the variations observed between sediment and water communities in the PRE. This study provides a more comprehensive understanding of the microbial community structures in a highly dynamic estuarine system and sheds light on the applicability of ecological theoretical mechanisms.

  15. Toward understanding the dynamics of microbial communities in an estuarine system.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weipeng Zhang

    Full Text Available Community assembly theories such as species sorting theory provide a framework for understanding the structures and dynamics of local communities. The effect of theoretical mechanisms can vary with the scales of observation and effects of specific environmental factors. Based on 16S rRNA gene tag pyrosequencing, different structures and temporal succession patterns were discovered between the surface sediments and bottom water microbial communities in the Pearl River Estuary (PRE. The microbial communities in the surface sediment samples were more diverse than those in the bottom water samples, and several genera were specific for the water or sediment communities. Moreover, water temperature was identified as the main variable driving community dynamics and the microbial communities in the sediment showed a greater temporal change. We speculate that nutrient-based species sorting and bacterial plasticity to the temperature contribute to the variations observed between sediment and water communities in the PRE. This study provides a more comprehensive understanding of the microbial community structures in a highly dynamic estuarine system and sheds light on the applicability of ecological theoretical mechanisms.

  16. Varied representation of the West Pacific pattern in multiple dynamical seasonal predictions of APCC-MME

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Yun-Young

    2017-04-01

    West Pacific (WP) teleconnection pattern is one of the well-known primary modes of boreal winter low-frequency variability (LFV) resolved in 500 hPa geopotential height and its phase and amplitude strongly influence regional weather conditions including temperature and rainfall extremes [Baxter and Nigam, 2015; Hsu and Wallace, 1985; Linkin and Nigam, 2008; Mo and Livezey, 1986; Thompson and Wallace, 1998; Wallace and Gutzler, 1981]. This study primary aims to evaluate individual 11 GCMs seasonal hindcasts employed as members of multi-model ensemble (MME) produced in APEC Climate Center (APCC) in representing WP. For the extensive and comprehensive evaluation, this study applied seven verification metrics in three scopes: (a) temporal representation of observed indices, (b) spatial mode separation in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), and (c) regional mode isolated in the preset longitudinal domain. Verification results display quite large inter-model spread. Some models mimic observed index variability while others display large bias of index variability compared to climatology. Basic north-south dipole pattern is mostly well reproduced in both rotated and unrotated loading modes. However, each individual seasonal forecast model exhibits slightly different behavior (e.g. amplification/weakening, zonal and meridional shift, downstream extension and so forth) in representing spatial structure of WP. When taking all 7 metrics into account, one Europe (CMCC) model, one Oceania (POAMA) model and two North America (NASA and NCEP) models are classified as relatively good performers while PNU is classified as a matchless poor performer out of 11. Least WP representing skill of PNU is sort of consistent with the largest bias of NH total variability. This study further tries to examine winter mean biases of individual models and figure out how mean bias is linked to WP representation in model world. Model bias of winter climatology is investigated focusing on six large scale

  17. Understanding Angiography-Based Aneurysm Flow Fields through Comparison with Computational Fluid Dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cebral, J R; Mut, F; Chung, B J; Spelle, L; Moret, J; van Nijnatten, F; Ruijters, D

    2017-06-01

    Hemodynamics is thought to be an important factor for aneurysm progression and rupture. Our aim was to evaluate whether flow fields reconstructed from dynamic angiography data can be used to realistically represent the main flow structures in intracranial aneurysms. DSA-based flow reconstructions, obtained during interventional treatment, were compared qualitatively with flow fields obtained from patient-specific computational fluid dynamics models and quantitatively with projections of the computational fluid dynamics fields (by computing a directional similarity of the vector fields) in 15 cerebral aneurysms. The average similarity between the DSA and the projected computational fluid dynamics flow fields was 78% in the parent artery, while it was only 30% in the aneurysm region. Qualitatively, both the DSA and projected computational fluid dynamics flow fields captured the location of the inflow jet, the main vortex structure, the intrasaccular flow split, and the main rotation direction in approximately 60% of the cases. Several factors affect the reconstruction of 2D flow fields from dynamic angiography sequences. The most important factors are the 3-dimensionality of the intrasaccular flow patterns and inflow jets, the alignment of the main vortex structure with the line of sight, the overlapping of surrounding vessels, and possibly frame rate undersampling. Flow visualization with DSA from >1 projection is required for understanding of the 3D intrasaccular flow patterns. Although these DSA-based flow quantification techniques do not capture swirling or secondary flows in the parent artery, they still provide a good representation of the mean axial flow and the corresponding flow rate. © 2017 by American Journal of Neuroradiology.

  18. Seasonal source-sink dynamics at the edge of a species' range.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanda, L Leann; Fuller, Todd K; Sievert, Paul R; Kellogg, Robert L

    2009-06-01

    The roles of dispersal and population dynamics in determining species' range boundaries recently have received theoretical attention but little empirical work. Here we provide data on survival, reproduction, and movement for a Virginia opossum (Didelphis virginiana) population at a local distributional edge in central Massachusetts (USA). Most juvenile females that apparently exploited anthropogenic resources survived their first winter, whereas those using adjacent natural resources died of starvation. In spring, adult females recolonized natural areas. A life-table model suggests that a population exploiting anthropogenic resources may grow, acting as source to a geographically interlaced sink of opossums using only natural resources, and also providing emigrants for further range expansion to new human-dominated landscapes. In a geographical model, this source-sink dynamic is consistent with the local distribution identified through road-kill surveys. The Virginia opossum's exploitation of human resources likely ameliorates energetically restrictive winters and may explain both their local distribution and their northward expansion in unsuitable natural climatic regimes. Landscape heterogeneity, such as created by urbanization, may result in source-sink dynamics at highly localized scales. Differential fitness and individual dispersal movements within local populations are key to generating regional distributions, and thus species ranges, that exceed expectations.

  19. Seasonal source-sink dynamics at the edge of a species' range

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanda, L.L.; Fuller, T.K.; Sievert, P.R.; Kellogg, R.L.

    2009-01-01

    The roles of dispersal and population dynamics in determining species' range boundaries recently have received theoretical attention but little empirical work. Here we provide data on survival, reproduction, and movement for a Virginia opossum (Didelphis virginiana) population at a local distributional edge in central Massachusetts (USA). Most juvenile females that apparently exploited anthropogenic resources survived their first winter, whereas those using adjacent natural resources died of starvation. In spring, adult females recolonized natural areas. A life-table model suggests that a population exploiting anthropogenic resources may grow, acting as source to a geographically interlaced sink of opossums using only natural resources, and also providing emigrants for further range expansion to new human-dominated landscapes. In a geographical model, this source-sink dynamic is consistent with the local distribution identified through road-kill surveys. The Virginia opossum's exploitation of human resources likely ameliorates energetically restrictive winters and may explain both their local distribution and their northward expansion in unsuitable natural climatic regimes. Landscape heterogeneity, such as created by urbanization, may result in source-sink dynamics at highly localized scales. Differential fitness and individual dispersal movements within local populations are key to generating regional distributions, and thus species ranges, that exceed expectations. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

  20. Seasonal and spatial dynamic of current-use pesticides (CUPs) in an Argentinian watershed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez, Debora; Okada, Elena; Menone, Mirta; Aparicio, Virginia; Costa, Jose Luis

    2017-04-01

    The Argentinian Pampa region is the major agricultural zone, in which, the agricultural lands are strongly linked to surface waters. However, Argentina has not regulation for most of the current -used pesticides (CUPs) in surface water to protect the aquatic life. The objective of this work was to study the seasonal and spatial variations of CUPs in surface waters of "El Crespo" stream, and to determine the maximum levels reached to evaluate the possible impact on aquatic life. "El Crespo" stream is only influenced by farming activities, with intensive crop systems upstream (US) and extensive livestock production downstream (DS). It is an optimal site for pesticide monitoring studies since there are no urban or industrial inputs into the system. Water samples were collected monthly from October 2014 to October 2015 in the US and DS sites by triplicate using 1 L polypropylene bottles and stored at -20°C until analysis. The samples were analyzed using liquid chromatography coupled to a tandem mass spectrometer (UPLC-MS/MS). The most frequently detected residues (>40%) were glyphosate (GLY) and its metabolite amino methylphosphonic acid (AMPA), atrazine, acetochlor, metolachlor, 2,4-D, metsulfuron methyl, fluorocloridone, imidacloprid, tebuconazole and epoxiconazole, which are used in the crops cultivated in the area (i.e. soybean, potato, maize and wheat). Individual analysis showed that the herbicide GLY and its metabolite AMPA presented seasonal and spatial variations. The highest concentrations of GLY and AMPA were detected in US site during spring 2014 (2.09 ± 0.39 and 1.13 ± 0.56 µg/L, respectively) and in DS during summer 2015 (1.06 ± 1.02 and 0.20 ± 0.23 µg/L). Comparing total CUPs concentration between sites, a significant increase in UP site during spring 2014 (4.03 ± 0.43 µg/L) in relation to DS (1.54 ± 1.17 µg/L) was observed, may be due to pesticide applications during fallow and transport via surface runoff. Data generated in the present

  1. Virus Dynamics Are Influenced by Season, Tides and Advective Transport in Intertidal, Permeable Sediments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vandieken, Verona; Sabelhaus, Lara; Engelhardt, Tim

    2017-01-01

    Sandy surface sediments of tidal flats exhibit high microbial activity due to the fast and deep-reaching transport of oxygen and nutrients by porewater advection. On the other hand during low tide, limited transport results in nutrient and oxygen depletion concomitant to the accumulation of microbial metabolites. This study represents the first attempt to use flow-through reactors to investigate virus production, virus transport and the impact of tides and season in permeable sediments. The reactors were filled with intertidal sands of two sites (North beach site and backbarrier sand flat of Spiekeroog island in the German Wadden Sea) to best simulate advective porewater transport through the sediments. Virus and cell release along with oxygen consumption were measured in the effluents of reactors during continuous flow of water through the sediments as well as in tidal simulation experiments where alternating cycles with and without water flow (each for 6 h) were operated. The results showed net rates of virus production (0.3-13.2 × 10 6 viruses cm -3 h -1 ) and prokaryotic cell production (0.3-10.0 × 10 5 cells cm -3 h -1 ) as well as oxygen consumption rates (56-737 μmol l -1 h -1 ) to be linearly correlated reflecting differences in activity, season and location of the sediments. Calculations show that total virus turnover was fast with 2 to 4 days, whereas virus-mediated cell turnover was calculated to range between 5-13 or 33-91 days depending on the assumed burst sizes (number of viruses released upon cell lysis) of 14 or 100 viruses, respectively. During the experiments, the homogenized sediments in the reactors became vertically structured with decreasing microbial activities and increasing impact of viruses on prokaryotic mortality with depth. Tidal simulation clearly showed a strong accumulation of viruses and cells in the top sections of the reactors when the flow was halted indicating a consistently high virus production during low tide. In

  2. Real-Time G-Protein-Coupled Receptor Imaging to Understand and Quantify Receptor Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María S. Aymerich

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the trafficking of G-protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs and their regulation by agonists and antagonists is fundamental to develop more effective drugs. Optical methods using fluorescent-tagged receptors and spinning disk confocal microscopy are useful tools to investigate membrane receptor dynamics in living cells. The aim of this study was to develop a method to characterize receptor dynamics using this system which offers the advantage of very fast image acquisition with minimal cell perturbation. However, in short-term assays photobleaching was still a problem. Thus, we developed a procedure to perform a photobleaching-corrected image analysis. A study of short-term dynamics of the long isoform of the dopamine type 2 receptor revealed an agonist-induced increase in the mobile fraction of receptors with a rate of movement of 0.08 μm/s For long-term assays, the ratio between the relative fluorescence intensity at the cell surface versus that in the intracellular compartment indicated that receptor internalization only occurred in cells co-expressing G protein-coupled receptor kinase 2. These results indicate that the lateral movement of receptors and receptor internalization are not directly coupled. Thus, we believe that live imaging of GPCRs using spinning disk confocal image analysis constitutes a powerful tool to study of receptor dynamics.

  3. Retrieval of seasonal dynamics of forest understory reflectance from semi-arid to boreal forests using MODIS BRDF data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pisek, Jan; Chen, Jing; Kobayashi, Hideki; Rautiainen, Miina; Schaepman, Michael; Karnieli, Arnon; Sprintsin, Michael; Ryu, Youngryel; Nikopensius, Maris; Raabe, Kairi

    2016-04-01

    the limitations of the method for closed canopies, where the understory signal retrieval is much attenuated. The retrieval of understory signal can be used e.g. to improve the estimates of leaf area index (LAI), fAPAR in sparsely vegetated areas, and also to study the phenology of understory layer. Our results are particularly useful to producing Northern hemisphere maps of seasonal dynamics of forests, allowing to separately retrieve understory variability, being a main contributor to spring emergence and fall senescence uncertainty. The inclusion of understory variability in ecological models will ultimately improve prediction and forecast horizons of vegetation dynamics.

  4. Design and Season Influence Nitrogen Dynamics in Two Surface Flow Constructed Wetlands Treating Nursery Irrigation Runoff

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah A. White

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Constructed wetlands (CWs are used to remediate runoff from a variety of agricultural, industrial, and urban sources. CW remediation performance is often evaluated at the laboratory scale over durations less than one year. The purpose of this study was to characterize the effect of CW design (cell depth and residence time on nitrogen (N speciation and fate across season and years in two free water surface wetlands receiving runoff from irrigated plant production areas at an ornamental plant nursery. Water quality (mg·L−1 of nitrate, nitrite, and ammonium, dissolved oxygen and oxidation reduction potential was monitored at five sites within each of two CWs each month over four years. Nitrate-N was the dominant form of ionic N present in both CWs. Within CW1, a deep cell to shallow cell design, nitrate comprised 86% of ionic N in effluent. Within CW2, designed with three sequential deep cells, nitrate comprised only 66% of total N and ammonium comprised 27% of total N in CW2 effluent. Differences in ionic N removal efficacies and shifts in N speciation in CW1 and CW2 were controlled by constructed wetland design (depth and hydraulic retention time, the concentration of nutrients entering the CW, and plant species richness.

  5. Seasonal Dynamics of Biogeochemical Processes in the Water Column of the Northeastern Black Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rusanov, I. I.; Lein, A. Yu.; Makkaveev, P. N.; Klyuvitkin, A. A.; Kravchishina, M. D.; Ivanov, M. V.; Flint, M. V.

    2018-01-01

    Integrated studies on the hydrochemistry and water column rates of microbial processes in the eastern sector of the Black Sea along a standard 100-miles transect off Gelendzhik from the coast to the central part of the sea at water depths of 100-2170 m show that a series of warm winters and the absence of intense convective winter mixing resulted in a relatively low content of suspended particulate matter (SPM), particulate organic carbon (POC), and nutrients in the water column in March 2009. The relatively high SPM concentrations and the presence of isotopically light POC at the offshore station are indicative of the supply of terrigenous material from land and low contributions of phytoplanktonic organic matter to the composition of SPM. This may explain the low rates of biogeochemical processes in the water column near the coast. The surface layer at deep-water stations is dominated by isotopically heavy phytoplanktonic organic matter. This suggests that the supply of terrigenous material from land was insufficient in offshore deep-water areas. Therefore, warm winters and insufficient nutrient supply do not prevent photosynthesis in the photic layer of the deep-water zone, which generates organic substrates for heterotrophic aquatic communities. The results of isotopic analysis of POC, measurements of the rates biogeochemical processes, and the hydrochemical characteristics of the water column can be used to determine the nature and seasonal variability of the POC composition.

  6. Understanding role of genome dynamics in host adaptation of gut commensal, L. reuteri

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shikha Sharma

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Lactobacillus reuteri is a gram-positive gut commensal and exhibits noteworthy adaptation to its vertebrate hosts. Host adaptation is often driven by inter-strain genome dynamics like expansion of insertion sequences that lead to acquisition and loss of gene(s and creation of large dynamic regions. In this regard we carried in-house genome sequencing of large number of L. reuteri strains origination from human, chicken, pig and rodents. We further next generation sequence data in understanding invasion and expansion of an IS element in shaping genome of strains belonging to human associated lineage. Finally, we share our experience in high-throughput genomic library preparation and generating high quality sequence data of a very low GC bacterium like L. reuteri.

  7. Tidal and seasonal carbon and nutrient dynamics of the Guadalquivir estuary and the Bay of Cádiz (SW Iberian Peninsula

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Ribas-Ribas

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available To study the effects of the physical environment on carbon and nutrient cycle dynamics on the north-eastern shelf of the Gulf of Cádiz, changes in currents, tides, salinity, temperature, carbon system parameters (fugacity of CO2 (fCO2, dissolved organic carbon, dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC and pH and other related parameters(dissolved oxygen, total dissolved nitrogen (TDN, nutrients and suspended particulate matter were measured in transects across the Guadalquivir estuary and Bay of Cádiz mouths. The main objective of this study is to investigate the influence of these inner ecosystems on the carbon and nutrient distributions on the adjacent continental shelf. Three cruises were undertaken in June 2006, November 2006 and February 2007. During the whole study period, Guadalquivir estuary exported components at a rate of 3 Gmol of SiO2, 4 Gmol of DIN, 3 Gmol of TDN, 31 Gmol of DOC and 604 Gmol of DIC per year. On the other hand, Bay of Cádiz imported 3 Gmol of SiO2, 1 Gmol of DIN, 2 Gmol of TDN, 33 Gmol of DOC and 562 Gmol of DIC per year. Diurnal variability of fCO2 could have a potentially important implication on the estimate of air–sea CO2 fluxes. Tides influence velocity and transport of carbon and nutrients: we found statistically significant differences (p n = 220 between the flood tide (the mean velocity was 4.85 cm s–1 and the ebb tide (the mean velocity was −5.67 cm s–1. Biological activity and diurnal changes have also an important role on the carbon and nutrient dynamics. Seasonal carbon and nutrient variations were found. During June, both systems were exporting components to the adjacent continental shelf of the Gulf of Cádiz, whereas in February both systems were importing. Monthly studies should be undertaken to completely understand this dynamic system.

  8. The utility of simple mathematical models in understanding gene regulatory dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackey, Michael C.; Santillán, Moisés; Tyran-Kamińska, Marta; Zeron, Eduardo S.

    2015-01-01

    Abstract In this review, we survey work that has been carried out in the attempts of biomathematicians to understand the dynamic behaviour of simple bacterial operons starting with the initial work of the 1960’s. We concentrate on the simplest of situations, discussing both repressible and inducible systems and then turning to concrete examples related to the biology of the lactose and tryptophan operons. We conclude with a brief discussion of the role of both extrinsic noise and so-called intrinsic noise in the form of translational and/or transcriptional bursting. PMID:25402755

  9. Dust-storm dynamics over Sistan region, Iran: Seasonality, transport characteristics and affected areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rashki, A.; Kaskaoutis, D. G.; Francois, P.; Kosmopoulos, P. G.; Legrand, M.

    2015-03-01

    The present work examines the seasonality, dust-plume altitudinal variation and affected areas for dust storms originated from the Sistan region, southeastern Iran during the summer (June-September) months of the period 2001-2012 synthesizing local meteorological records, satellite observations (TOMS, OMI, METEOSAT, MODIS) and HYSPLIT forward trajectories. Dust-storm days (356 in total) are associated with visibility below 1 km at Zabol, Iran meteorological station with higher frequency and intensity in June and July. Monthly-mean composite maps of TOMS and OMI AI show high (>3-3.5) values over Sistan and nearby downwind areas. HYSPLIT forward-trajectory analysis at 500 m for air masses originated from Sistan on the dust-storm days shows that they usually follow an anti-clockwise transport direction at elevations usually below 2 km, initially moving southwards and then shifting to east-northeast when they are approaching the Arabian Sea coast. This is the result of the influence of the local topography and formation of thermal low-pressure systems over the arid lands. It is found that in few cases the dust storms from Sistan affect central/south Arabian Sea and India, while they control the aerosol loading over northernmost Arabian Sea. The Infrared Difference Dust Index (IDDI) images, which represent brightness temperature reduction due to dust presence over land, are used at specific periods of persistent dust storms over Sistan, confirming the main pathways of the dust plumes and illustrating the importance of the region as one of the most active dust sources in southwest Asia.

  10. Hard Ticks on Domestic Ruminants and their SeasonalPopulation Dynamics in Yazd Province, Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y Salim abadi

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: Ticks are the main vectors for transmission of different pathogens to human and animals. This survey was performed to find out distribution of ticks, which infested the domestic ruminants in Yazd Province, central Iran during year 2008-2009.Methods: A total number of 30 villages from both mountainous (20% and plateau (80% regions of the province were selected randomly. Ticks were colleted from the body of infested animals and transported to the laboratory of Medical Entomology, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences and then were identified to space level using valid identification key.Results: A total of 583 hard ticks were collected. The ticks were classified into three genera and 7 species including:  Hyalomma dromedarii (55.92%, Hy. marginatum (13.20%, Hy. anatolicum (9.78%, Hy. detritum (4.98%,  Hy. asiaticum (3.94%, Rhipicephalus sanguineus (11.84%, and Dermacentor marginatus (0.34%. The highest seasonal activities occurred in summer. The prevalence of the Ixodidae ticks was more evident in plateaus area in Yazd Province. Among the hosts including: cow, goat, sheep and camel, the ticks that collected from camel was more prevalent. The ratio of male was more than female ticks. Hyalomma. dromedarii was the predominant tick species and accounted for 55.92% of the ticks.Conclusion: Some of the collected ticks may play an important role for transmission of vector borne disease to human; therefore, the results of this study will provide a clue for vectors of tick-borne diseases in the region for local authorities for implementation of disease control.

  11. Population dynamics and seasonal trend of California red scale (Aonidiella aurantii Maskell) in citrus in Northern Spain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Campos-Rivela, J. M.; Martinez-Ferrer, M. T.; Fibla-Queralt, J. M.

    2012-11-01

    The California red scale, Aonidiella aurantii (Maskell), was first detected in citrus groves in Catalonia, Northern Spain, in 2000, and has since spread slowly and irregularly. New foci of infestation are currently found in citrus-growing areas of southern Tarragona. As Catalonia is the northernmost citrus growing area in Spain, between 2002 and 2009, A. aurantii population dynamics and seasonal trends were studied in two citrus groves and compared with other regions and countries. The population dynamics showed that there were four male flights (including that of the over wintering generation): in May, mid June-mid July, August and October, the most abundant being that of August (over 60% of the males captured during the year). The thermal constant estimated between male flights, using 11.7 degree centigrade as the lower threshold temperature, was 611.8 {+-} 35.5 degree-days. Three peaks of 1st and 2nd nymph instars were observed: in early June, late July-early August, and late September. The number of crawlers captured on sticky tapes reached a first maximum on 27th May ({+-} 1.85 days). The male flight abundance showed a positive relationship between two consecutive generations, revealing the stability of A. aurantii populations. (Author) 34 refs.

  12. Understanding Dynamic Model Validation of a Wind Turbine Generator and a Wind Power Plant: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Muljadi, Eduard; Zhang, Ying Chen; Gevorgian, Vahan; Kosterev, Dmitry

    2016-09-01

    Regional reliability organizations require power plants to validate the dynamic models that represent them to ensure that power systems studies are performed to the best representation of the components installed. In the process of validating a wind power plant (WPP), one must be cognizant of the parameter settings of the wind turbine generators (WTGs) and the operational settings of the WPP. Validating the dynamic model of a WPP is required to be performed periodically. This is because the control parameters of the WTGs and the other supporting components within a WPP may be modified to comply with new grid codes or upgrades to the WTG controller with new capabilities developed by the turbine manufacturers or requested by the plant owners or operators. The diversity within a WPP affects the way we represent it in a model. Diversity within a WPP may be found in the way the WTGs are controlled, the wind resource, the layout of the WPP (electrical diversity), and the type of WTGs used. Each group of WTGs constitutes a significant portion of the output power of the WPP, and their unique and salient behaviors should be represented individually. The objective of this paper is to illustrate the process of dynamic model validations of WTGs and WPPs, the available data recorded that must be screened before it is used for the dynamic validations, and the assumptions made in the dynamic models of the WTG and WPP that must be understood. Without understanding the correct process, the validations may lead to the wrong representations of the WTG and WPP modeled.

  13. Asymmetric Dynamic Attunement of Speech and Gestures in the Construction of Children's Understanding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Jonge-Hoekstra, Lisette; Van der Steen, Steffie; Van Geert, Paul; Cox, Ralf F A

    2016-01-01

    As children learn they use their speech to express words and their hands to gesture. This study investigates the interplay between real-time gestures and speech as children construct cognitive understanding during a hands-on science task. 12 children (M = 6, F = 6) from Kindergarten (n = 5) and first grade (n = 7) participated in this study. Each verbal utterance and gesture during the task were coded, on a complexity scale derived from dynamic skill theory. To explore the interplay between speech and gestures, we applied a cross recurrence quantification analysis (CRQA) to the two coupled time series of the skill levels of verbalizations and gestures. The analysis focused on (1) the temporal relation between gestures and speech, (2) the relative strength and direction of the interaction between gestures and speech, (3) the relative strength and direction between gestures and speech for different levels of understanding, and (4) relations between CRQA measures and other child characteristics. The results show that older and younger children differ in the (temporal) asymmetry in the gestures-speech interaction. For younger children, the balance leans more toward gestures leading speech in time, while the balance leans more toward speech leading gestures for older children. Secondly, at the group level, speech attracts gestures in a more dynamically stable fashion than vice versa, and this asymmetry in gestures and speech extends to lower and higher understanding levels. Yet, for older children, the mutual coupling between gestures and speech is more dynamically stable regarding the higher understanding levels. Gestures and speech are more synchronized in time as children are older. A higher score on schools' language tests is related to speech attracting gestures more rigidly and more asymmetry between gestures and speech, only for the less difficult understanding levels. A higher score on math or past science tasks is related to less asymmetry between gestures and

  14. Asymmetric dynamic attunement of speech and gestures in the construction of children’s understanding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lisette eDe Jonge-Hoekstra

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available As children learn they use their speech to express words and their hands to gesture. This study investigates the interplay between real-time gestures and speech as children construct cognitive understanding during a hands-on science task. 12 children (M = 6, F = 6 from Kindergarten (n = 5 and first grade (n = 7 participated in this study. Each verbal utterance and gesture during the task were coded, on a complexity scale derived from dynamic skill theory. To explore the interplay between speech and gestures, we applied a cross recurrence quantification analysis (CRQA to the two coupled time series of the skill levels of verbalizations and gestures. The analysis focused on 1 the temporal relation between gestures and speech, 2 the relative strength and direction of the interaction between gestures and speech, 3 the relative strength and direction between gestures and speech for different levels of understanding, and 4 relations between CRQA measures and other child characteristics. The results show that older and younger children differ in the (temporal asymmetry in the gestures-speech interaction. For younger children, the balance leans more towards gestures leading speech in time, while the balance leans more towards speech leading gestures for older children. Secondly, at the group level, speech attracts gestures in a more dynamically stable fashion than vice versa, and this asymmetry in gestures and speech extends to lower and higher understanding levels. Yet, for older children, the mutual coupling between gestures and speech is more dynamically stable regarding the higher understanding levels. Gestures and speech are more synchronized in time as children are older. A higher score on schools’ language tests is related to speech attracting gestures more rigidly and more asymmetry between gestures and speech, only for the less difficult understanding levels. A higher score on math or past science tasks is related to less asymmetry between

  15. There's a World Going on Underground: Imaging Technologies to Understand Root Growth Dynamics and Rhizosphere Interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Topp, C. N.

    2016-12-01

    Our ability to harness the power of plant genomics for basic and applied science depends on how well and how fast we can quantify the phenotypic ramifications of genetic variation. Plants can be considered from many vantage points: at scales from cells to organs, over the course of development or evolution, and from biophysical, physiological, and ecological perspectives. In all of these ways, our understanding of plant form and function is greatly limited by our ability to study subterranean structures and processes. The limitations to accessing this knowledge are well known - soil is opaque, roots are morphologically complex, and root growth can be heavily influenced by a myriad of environmental factors. Nonetheless, recent technological innovations in imaging science have generated a renewed focus on roots and thus new opportunities to understand the plant as a whole. The Topp Lab is interested in crop root system growth dynamics and function in response to environmental stresses such as drought, rhizosphere interactions, and as a consequence of artificial selection for agronomically important traits such as nitrogen uptake and high plant density. Studying roots requires the development of imaging technologies, computational infrastructure, and statistical methods that can capture and analyze morphologically complex networks over time and at high-throughput. The lab uses several imaging tools (optical, X-ray CT, PET, etc.) along with quantitative genetics and molecular biology to understand the dynamics of root growth and physiology. We aim to understand the relationships among root traits that can be effectively measured both in controlled laboratory environments and in the field, and to identify genes and gene networks that control root, and ultimately whole plant architectural features useful for crop improvement.

  16. Leaf dynamics of Festulolium and Dactylis glomerata L. at the end of the growing season

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiří Skládanka

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper is focused on the assessment of leaf extension rate (LER, leaf appearance rate (LAR and leaf senescence rate (LSR in the Festulolium (Festuca arundinacea Schreb. × Lolium multiflorum Lam. and in the Dactylis glomerata L. at the end of the growing season from the end of September to the beginning of December. In summer, the swards were used for a single cut (beginning of June or for a double cut (beginning of June and end of July. Measurements were made in three periods from 14 Sept. to 11 Oct., from 11 Oct. to 29 Oct., and from 29 Oct. to 6 Dec. In the first period, LER was higher in Dactylis glomerata L. (3.770 mm tiller−1 d−1 than in Festulolium (2.376 mm tiller−1 d−1. In the second and third period, LER was higher in Festulolium (0.859 resp. 0.271 mm tiller−1 d−1 than in Dactylis glomerata L. (0.694, resp. 0.199 mm tiller−1 d−1. LAR values measured in Festulolium in the studied pe­riods were 0.277 leaf tiller−1 d−1, 0.079 leaf tiller−1 d−1 and 0.038 leaf tiller−1 d−1 and LAR values of Dactylis glomerata L. were 0.225 leaf tiller−1 d−1, 0.054 leaf tiller−1 d−1 and 0.027 leaf tiller−1 d−1. In the course of the whole pe­riod of study, LSR showed the highest values in Dactylis glomerata L. (7.869 mm til­ler−1 d−1, 5.947 mm til­ler−1 d−1 and 4.757 mm tiller−1 d−1 while the LSR values of Festulolium were lower (2.904 mm tiller−1 d−1, 2.375 mm tiller−1 d−1 and 1.205 mm tiller−1 d−1. The influence of both the species and the period of measurement on the LER, LAR and LSR values was statistically highly significant (P < 0.01 to very highly significant (P < 0.001. The interaction between the species and the period of measurement was very highly significant (P < 0.001 in the LER characteristic. The influence of the intensity of sward use in summer on the LSR values was very highly significant (P < 0.001, too.

  17. Multisource Imaging of Seasonal Dynamics in Land Surface Phenology Using Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melaas, E. K.; Graesser, J.; Friedl, M. A.

    2017-12-01

    Land surface phenology, including the timing of phenophase transitions and the entire seasonal cycle of surface reflectance and vegetation indices, is important for a myriad of applications including monitoring the response of terrestrial ecosystems to climate variability and extreme events, and land cover mapping. While methods to monitor and map phenology from coarse spatial resolution instruments such as MODIS are now relatively mature, the spatial resolution of these instruments is inadequate where vegetation properties, land use, and land cover vary at spatial scales of tens of meters. To address this need, algorithms to map phenology at moderate spatial resolution (30 m) using data from Landsat have recently been developed. However, the 16-day repeat cycle of Landsat presents significant challenges in regions where changes are rapid or where cloud cover reduces the frequency of clear-sky views. The European Space Agency's Sentinel-2 satellites, which are designed to provide moderate spatial resolution data at 5-day revisit frequency near the equator and 3 day revisit frequency in the mid-latitudes, will alleviate this constraint in many parts of the world. Here, we use harmonized time series of data from Sentinel-2A and Landsat OLI (HLS) to quantify the timing of land surface phenology metrics across a sample of deciduous forest and grassland-dominated sites, and then compare these estimates with co-located in situ observations. The resulting phenology maps demonstrate the improved information related to landscape-scale features that can be estimated from HLS data relative to comparable metrics from coarse spatial resolution instruments. For example, our results based on HLS data reveal spatial patterns in phenological metrics related to topographic and land cover controls that are not resolved in MODIS data, and show good agreement with transition dates observed from in situ measurements. Our results also show systematic bias toward earlier timing of spring

  18. Seasonal Variation, Export Dynamics and Consumption of Freshwater Invertebrates in an Estuarine Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, D. D.; Williams, N. E.

    1998-03-01

    In the Aber Estuary, North Wales, significant numbers of freshwater benthic invertebrates occurred in the tidal freshwater area. Distinct seasonal patterns were observed in their longitudinal zonation which appeared to be unrelated to variations in tidal inundation. The December extension downstream of freshwater taxa is hypothesized to be in response to decreasing water temperatures. In April, larvae/nymphs of the Trichoptera (caddisflies), Ephemeroptera (mayflies) and Plecoptera (stoneflies) ranged as far as a site inundated by 80·9% of all high tides, and larval Elmidae and Chironomidae (midges) occurred at the most marine site (inundated twice daily by all high tides). In July, with the exception of the Chironomidae, the range of most aquatic insects had contracted to the upper estuary. Although, in general, densities of aquatic insects decreased towards the lower estuary, significant densities persisted there. For example, maxima of 3514 chironomid larvae and 48 caddisfly larvae m -2were recorded at the 80·9% inundation site. An estimated 31×10 6freshwater invertebrates (weighing 62·6 kg), per annum, passed from fresh water into salt water across any given transect along the estuary. In comparison, the annual influx of invertebrates carried upstream by incoming tides was estimated to be 1·9×10 6(6·2%; weighing 2·5 kg). Predominant in the downstream drift were the larvae/nymphs and/or pupae of chironomids, mayflies, stoneflies and caddisflies. The ' reverse ' drift comprised mainly copepods, ostracods, amphipods and oligochaetes. Mites and the brackishwater amphipod Gammarus zaddachicommonly moved in both directions. Highest drift densities occurred in July, whereas the lowest densities occurred in late autumn and winter. Multiple regression analysis showed no relationship between total drift or ' reverse ' drift densities and any of the measured environmental variables. Many of the freshwater invertebrates appeared not to die upon passing into tidal

  19. Seasonal Dynamics of Sublittoral Meiobenthos in Relation to Phytoplankton Sedimentation in the Baltic Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ólafsson, E.; Elmgren, R.

    1997-08-01

    Meiobenthic metazoans (40-500) μm were sampled monthly at a 37 m deep station in the north-western Baltic Sea proper. Nematodes dominated the meiofauna, ranging from 67% of total abundance in February to 91% in September. Harpacticoid copepods were the second most common group, ranging from 2% in September to 15% in February. Total meiofauna shell-free dry weight biomass was lowest in winter (0·9 mg 10 cm -2in January), and increased rapidly following the spring bloom, to high values in May-July (peak 1·7 mg 10 cm -2in July). As an annual average, ostracods contributed most to biomass, 38%, while nematodes and harpacticoids made up 24 and 15%, respectively. Only nematodes were common below 2 cm depth in the sediment, and few nematodes penetrated below 4 cm. Of Wieser's morphologically based nematode feeding groups, epistrate feeders dominated the surface sediment, and non-selective deposit feeders dominated the deeper layer in May. Total nematode abundance was significantly different among dates, with lowest numbers in winter and spring (October-April), and almost doubled within about 2 months after the spring phytoplankton bloom in March. There was a significant increase in selective deposit feeders and epistrate feeders after the spring bloom. Harpacticoid copepods were almost all of two species, Pseudobradyasp. and Microarthridion littorale, both of which differed significantly in abundance among months, and displayed continuous reproduction throughout the year, with a peak in pairs in precopula in winter for Pseudobradyasp. and in ovigerous females in M. littoraleafter the spring bloom. Pseudobradyawas significantly more numerous in winter than in other seasons. Microarthridion littoralehad its highest abundance from July to October. Three species of ostracods were common throughout the year and all differed significantly in numbers among months. Turbellaria, Kinorhyncha were found in lowest numbers during winter and peaked in summer. The peak of newly

  20. Examining secular trends and seasonality in count data using dynamic generalized linear modelling: a new methodological approach illustrated with hospital discharge data on myocardial infarction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lundbye-Christensen, Søren; Dethlefsen, Claus; Gorst-Rasmussen, Anders

    2009-01-01

    Time series of incidence counts often show secular trends and seasonal patterns. We present a model for incidence counts capable of handling a possible gradual change in growth rates and seasonal patterns, serial correlation, and overdispersion. The model resembles an ordinary time series...... regression model for Poisson counts. It differs in allowing the regression coefficients to vary gradually over time in a random fashion. During the 1983-1999 period, 17,989 incidents of acute myocardial infarction were recorded in the Hospital Discharge Registry for the county of North Jutland, Denmark....... Records were updated daily. A dynamic model with a seasonal pattern and an approximately linear trend was fitted to the data, and diagnostic plots indicated a good model fit. The analysis conducted with the dynamic model revealed peaks coinciding with above-average influenza A activity. On average...

  1. Improved Understanding of Implosion Symmetry through New Experimental Techniques Connecting Hohlraum Dynamics with Laser Beam Deposition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ralph, Joseph; Salmonson, Jay; Dewald, Eduard; Bachmann, Benjamin; Edwards, John; Graziani, Frank; Hurricane, Omar; Landen, Otto; Ma, Tammy; Masse, Laurent; MacLaren, Stephen; Meezan, Nathan; Moody, John; Parrilla, Nicholas; Pino, Jesse; Sacks, Ryan; Tipton, Robert

    2017-10-01

    Understanding what affects implosion symmetry has been a challenge for scientists designing indirect drive inertial confinement fusion experiments on the National Ignition Facility (NIF). New experimental techniques and data analysis have been employed aimed at improving our understanding of the relationship between hohlraum dynamics and implosion symmetry. Thin wall imaging data allows for time-resolved imaging of 10 keV Au l-band x-rays providing for the first time on the NIF, a spatially resolved measurement of laser deposition with time. In the work described here, we combine measurements from the thin wall imaging with time resolved views of the interior of the hohlraum. The measurements presented are compared to hydrodynamic simulations as well as simplified physics models. The goal of this work is to form a physical picture that better explains the relationship of the hohlraum dynamics and capsule ablator on laser beam propagation and implosion symmetry. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

  2. Using social network analysis tools in ecology : Markov process transition models applied to the seasonal trophic network dynamics of the Chesapeake Bay

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Johnson, Jeffrey C.; Luczkovich, Joseph J.; Borgatti, Stephen P.; Snijders, Tom A. B.; Luczkovich, S.P.

    2009-01-01

    Ecosystem components interact in complex ways and change over time due to a variety of both internal and external influences (climate change, season cycles, human impacts). Such processes need to be modeled dynamically using appropriate statistical methods for assessing change in network structure.

  3. Gender consistency and flexibility: using dynamics to understand the relationship between gender and adjustment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DiDonato, Matthew D; Martin, Carol L; Hessler, Eric E; Amazeen, Polemnia G; Hanish, Laura D; Fabes, Richard A

    2012-04-01

    Controversy surrounds questions regarding the influence of being gender consistent (i.e., having and expressing gendered characteristics that are consistent with one's biological sex) versus being gender flexible (i.e., having and expressing gendered characteristics that vary from masculine to feminine as circumstances arise) on children's adjustment outcomes, such as self-esteem, positive emotion, or behavior problems. Whereas evidence supporting the consistency hypothesis is abundant, little support exists for the flexibility hypothesis. To shed new light on the flexibility hypothesis, we explored children's gendered behavior from a dynamical perspective that highlighted variability and flexibility in addition to employing a conventional approach that emphasized stability and consistency. Conventional mean-level analyses supported the consistency hypothesis by revealing that gender atypical behavior was related to greater maladjustment, and dynamical analyses supported the flexibility hypothesis by showing that flexibility of gendered behavior over time was related to positive adjustment. Integrated analyses showed that gender typical behavior was related to the adjustment of children who were behaviorally inflexible, but not for those who were flexible. These results provided a more comprehensive understanding of the relation between gendered behavior and adjustment in young children and illustrated for the first time the feasibility of applying dynamical analyses to the study of gendered behavior.

  4. Future Challenges in Heterogeneous Catalysis: Understanding Catalysts under Dynamic Reaction Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalz, Kai F; Kraehnert, Ralph; Dvoyashkin, Muslim; Dittmeyer, Roland; Gläser, Roger; Krewer, Ulrike; Reuter, Karsten; Grunwaldt, Jan-Dierk

    2017-01-09

    In the future, (electro-)chemical catalysts will have to be more tolerant towards a varying supply of energy and raw materials. This is mainly due to the fluctuating nature of renewable energies. For example, power-to-chemical processes require a shift from steady-state operation towards operation under dynamic reaction conditions. This brings along a number of demands for the design of both catalysts and reactors, because it is well-known that the structure of catalysts is very dynamic. However, in-depth studies of catalysts and catalytic reactors under such transient conditions have only started recently. This requires studies and advances in the fields of 1) operando spectroscopy including time-resolved methods, 2) theory with predictive quality, 3) kinetic modelling, 4) design of catalysts by appropriate preparation concepts, and 5) novel/modular reactor designs. An intensive exchange between these scientific disciplines will enable a substantial gain of fundamental knowledge which is urgently required. This concept article highlights recent developments, challenges, and future directions for understanding catalysts under dynamic reaction conditions.

  5. Understanding the Chronology and Occupation Dynamics of Oversized Pit Houses in the Southern Brazilian Highlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregorio de Souza, Jonas; Robinson, Mark; Corteletti, Rafael; Cárdenas, Macarena Lucia; Wolf, Sidnei; Iriarte, José; Mayle, Francis; DeBlasis, Paulo

    2016-01-01

    A long held view about the occupation of southern proto-Jê pit house villages of the southern Brazilian highlands is that these sites represent cycles of long-term abandonment and reoccupation. However, this assumption is based on an insufficient number of radiocarbon dates for individual pit houses. To address this problem, we conducted a programme of comprehensive AMS radiocarbon dating and Bayesian modelling at the deeply stratified oversized pit House 1, Baggio I site (Cal. A.D. 1395–1650), Campo Belo do Sul, Santa Catarina state, Brazil. The stratigraphy of House 1 revealed an unparalleled sequence of twelve well preserved floors evidencing a major change in occupation dynamics including five completely burnt collapsed roofs. The results of the radiocarbon dating allowed us to understand for the first time the occupation dynamics of an oversized pit house in the southern Brazilian highlands. The Bayesian model demonstrates that House 1 was occupied for over two centuries with no evidence of major periods of abandonment, calling into question previous models of long-term abandonment. In addition, the House 1 sequence allowed us to tie transformations in ceramic style and lithic technology to an absolute chronology. Finally, we can provide new evidence that the emergence of oversized domestic structures is a relatively recent phenomenon among the southern proto-Jê. As monumental pit houses start to be built, small pit houses continue to be inhabited, evidencing emerging disparities in domestic architecture after AD 1000. Our research shows the importance of programmes of intensive dating of individual structures to understand occupation dynamics and site permanence, and challenges long held assumptions that the southern Brazilian highlands were home to marginal cultures in the context of lowland South America. PMID:27384341

  6. Potential changes in arctic seasonality and plant communities may impact tundra soil chemistry and carbon dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crow, S.; Cooper, E.; Beilman, D.; Filley, T.; Reimer, P.

    2009-04-01

    On the Svalbard archipelago, as in other high Arctic regions, tundra soil organic matter (SOM) is primarily plant detritus that is largely stabilized by cold, moist conditions and low nitrogen availability. However, the resistance of SOM to decomposition is also influenced by the quality of organic matter inputs to soil. Different plant communities are likely to give different qualities to SOM, especially where lignin-rich woody species encroach into otherwise graminoid and bryophyte-dominated regions. Arctic woody plant species are particularly sensitive to changes in temperature, snow cover, and growing season length. In a changing environment, litter chemistry may emerge as an important control on tundra SOM stabilization. In summer 2007, we collected plant material and soil from the highly-organic upper horizon (appx. 0-5 cm) and the mineral-dominated lower horizon (appx. 5-10cm) from four locations in the southwest facing valleys of Svalbard, Norway. The central goal of the ongoing experiment is to determine whether a greater abundance of woody plants could provide a negative feedback to warming impacts on the carbon (C) balance of Arctic soils. Towards this, we used a combination of plant biopolymer analyses (cupric oxide oxidation and quantification of lignin-derived phenols and cutin/suberin-derived aliphatics) and radiocarbon-based estimates of C longevity and mean residence time (MRT) to characterize potential links between plant type and soil C pools. We found that graminoid species regenerate above- and belowground tissue each year, whereas woody species (Cassiope tetragona and Dryas octopetala) regenerated only leaves yearly. In contrast, C within live branches and roots persisted for 15-18 yr on average. Leaves from woody species remained nearly intact in surface litter for up to 20 yr without being incorporated into the upper soil horizon. Leaves from both graminoid and woody species were concentrated in lignin-derived phenols relative to roots, but

  7. Forecasting the spatial and seasonal dynamic of Aedes albopictus oviposition activity in Albania and Balkan countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bino, Silvia; Kadriaj, Perparim; Mersini, Kujtim; Shukullari, Ada; Simaku, Artan; Rogozi, Elton; Caputo, Beniamino; Ducheyne, Els; della Torre, Alessandra; Reiter, Paul; Gilbert, Marius

    2018-01-01

    The increasing spread of the Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, in Europe and US raises public health concern due to the species competence to transmit several exotic human arboviruses, among which dengue, chikungunya and Zika, and urges the development of suitable modeling approach to forecast the spatial and temporal distribution of the mosquito. Here we developed a dynamical species distribution modeling approach forecasting Ae. albopictus eggs abundance at high spatial (0.01 degree WGS84) and temporal (weekly) resolution over 10 Balkan countries, using temperature times series of Modis data products and altitude as input predictors. The model was satisfactorily calibrated and validated over Albania based observed eggs abundance data weekly monitored during three years. For a given week of the year, eggs abundance was mainly predicted by the number of eggs and the mean temperature recorded in the preceding weeks. That is, results are in agreement with the biological cycle of the mosquito, reflecting the effect temperature on eggs spawning, maturation and hatching. The model, seeded by initial egg values derived from a second model, was then used to forecast the spatial and temporal distribution of eggs abundance over the selected Balkan countries, weekly in 2011, 2012 and 2013. The present study is a baseline to develop an easy-handling forecasting model able to provide information useful for promoting active surveillance and possibly prevention of Ae. albopictus colonization in presently non-infested areas in the Balkans as well as in other temperate regions. PMID:29432489

  8. Parasitoid- and hyperparasitoid-mediated seasonal dynamics of the cabbage aphid (Hemiptera: Aphididae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nematollahi, Mohammad Reza; Fathipour, Yaghoub; Talebi, Ali Asghar; Karimzadeh, Javad; Zalucki, Myron Philip

    2014-12-01

    The population dynamics of the cabbage aphid, Brevicoryne brassicae (L.), its parasitoid, Diaeretiella rapae McIntosh, and hyperparasitoids, Pachyneuron spp., were quantified under field conditions during 2011-2013, by examining synchronization, parasitoid: aphid ratio, possible effect of density on the finite rate of increase, and spatial coincidence. The rates of parasitism and hyperparasitism were based on rearing field-collected mummies and live parasitized aphids, and density of the aphid were estimated using heat extraction and subsampling techniques. Only one parasitoid, D. rapae (80% on average), and two hyperparasitoid species from the genus of Pachyneuron (6.5% on average), namely Pachyneuron aphidis (Bouché) and Pachyneuron groenlandicum (Holmgren), were reared from the aphid mummies. Significant Pearson's time lagged correlations for percentage parasitism versus aphid density and for percentage hyperparasitism versus mummy density indicated that 2-3 wk is needed for D. rapae and Pachyneuron spp. to show impact on their respective host's population. In early spring, the parasitoid: aphid ratio was low (0.11 on average) while aphid density was increasing. Based on Taylor's power law, D. rapae and Pachyneuron spp., as well as B. brassicae, had an aggregated distribution among canola plants. Moreover, a high degree of spatial overlap was found between D. rapae and B. brassicae and between Pachyneuron spp. and D. rapae. In general, the parasitoid had good spatial coincidence with its aphid host but because of a lack of parasitoid-host synchronization and low parasitoid: aphid ratio, impact on the host population was low.

  9. Understanding the dynamic interactions driving Zambian health centre performance: a case-based health systems analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Topp, Stephanie M; Chipukuma, Julien M; Hanefeld, Johanna

    2015-01-01

    Background Despite being central to achieving improved population health outcomes, primary health centres in low- and middle-income settings continue to underperform. Little research exists to adequately explain how and why this is the case. This study aimed to test the relevance and usefulness of an adapted conceptual framework for improving our understanding of the mechanisms and causal pathways influencing primary health centre performance. Methods A theory-driven, case-study approach was adopted. Four Zambian health centres were purposefully selected with case data including health-care worker interviews (n = 60); patient interviews (n = 180); direct observation of facility operations (2 weeks/centre) and key informant interviews (n = 14). Data were analysed to understand how the performance of each site was influenced by the dynamic interactions between system ‘hardware’ and ‘software’ acting on mechanisms of accountability. Findings Structural constraints including limited resources created challenging service environments in which work overload and stockouts were common. Health workers’ frustration with such conditions interacted with dissatisfaction with salary levels eroding service values and acting as a catalyst for different forms of absenteeism. Such behaviours exacerbated patient–provider ratios and increased the frequency of clinical and administrative shortcuts. Weak health information systems and lack of performance data undermined providers’ answerability to their employer and clients, and a lack of effective sanctions undermined supervisors’ ability to hold providers accountable for these transgressions. Weak answerability and enforceability contributed to a culture of impunity that masked and condoned weak service performance in all four sites. Conclusions Health centre performance is influenced by mechanisms of accountability, which are in turn shaped by dynamic interactions between system hardware and system software. Our

  10. Collaborative Research. Damage and Burst Dynamics in Failure of Complex Geomaterials. A Statistical Physics Approach to Understanding the Complex Emergent Dynamics in Near Mean-Field Geological Materials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rundle, John B. [Univ. of California, Davis, CA (United States); Klein, William [Boston Univ., MA (United States)

    2015-09-29

    We have carried out research to determine the dynamics of failure in complex geomaterials, specifically focusing on the role of defects, damage and asperities in the catastrophic failure processes (now popularly termed “Black Swan events”). We have examined fracture branching and flow processes using models for invasion percolation, focusing particularly on the dynamics of bursts in the branching process. We have achieved a fundamental understanding of the dynamics of nucleation in complex geomaterials, specifically in the presence of inhomogeneous structures.

  11. Seasonal Characteristics and Dynamic Mechanism of the Surface Kuroshio Branch intrusion into the South China Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Jingsong; Zhang, Zhixin; Xia, Changshui; Qiao, Fangli

    2017-04-01

    Using the observational data of the Argos satellite-tracked drifters from 1988 to 2012, we analyzed the surface Kuroshio Branch (KB) intrusion into the South China Sea (SCS). The analysis results are as follows. The surface KB mostly originates from the southern Balintang Channel (SBLTC) and the southern Babuyan Channel (BBYC). It starts in late September, reaches its peak (in terms of both speed and intrusion probability) in December-January and declines at the end of March. The mean speed of the drifters during traversing the Luzon Strait (LS) was 43% faster than that during the two days before entering the LS when the flow originated from the SBLTC, but there was no significant increase in speed when the flow came from the BBYC. The observations showed that in wintertime the monthly-mean sea-level anomalies (SLAs) were positive southwest of Taiwan Island and extended to the northern LS, and were negative northwest of Luzon Island and extended to the southern LS. The SLAs were accompanied by an anticyclonic circulation and a cyclonic circulation, which acted like a pump, forcing a part of the Kuroshio water westward into the SCS, especially for the water originated from the SBLTC. The condition under which the KB forms is solved by the equations of motion. The theoretical results indicate that whether the Kuroshio Surface Water can cross the LS into the SCS depends upon the sea-level gradient at the central LS and the region to the west, as well as the position, velocity and direction of the Kuroshio Surface Water when it enters the LS. Key words: surface Kuroshio Branch, Luzon Strait, dynamic mechanism

  12. Seasonal dynamics of the genus: Planktoniella Schutt in the estuarine waters of Indian Sundarbans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sekh, Sanoyaz; Biswas, Biswajit; Mandal, Manjushree; Sarkar, Neera Sen

    2016-01-01

    The study highlights the dynamics and morphological characteristics of the Genus Planktoniella Schutt. The two available species P. sol (Wallich) Schutt. and P. blanda (Schmidt) Syvertsen and Hasle are important components of the phytoplankton assemblage in the estuarine system of Indian Sundarbans and also marine systems elsewhere. The sampling sites for the purpose of this study include four different spots along a riverine stretch in the estuarine region adjacent to the Tiger Reserve in the Indian Sundarbans flowing into the Bay of Bengal. Integrated phytoplankton samples were preserved for the purpose from composite water samples from each site. The water samples were analysed in field for determining pH, temperature, salinity, conductivity, TDS, turbidity and DO and subsequent to treatment and processing, the samples were microscopically analysed in the laboratory. Significant negative correlation of cell count of both species found with respect to temperature and turbidity. P. sol versus temperature (significant at α = 0.01, p = 0.001) and P. blanda versus temperature (significant at α = 0.05, p = 0.037); P. sol versus turbidity (at α = 0.05, p = 0.019) and P. blanda versus turbidity (at α = 0.05, p = 0.019). Significant positive correlation found with respect to DO and as correlation between the two species themselves. A model has been generated for each of the two species with temperature, turbidity and DO as predictor variables and the two species of Planktoniella as response variables. The influence of other dominant phytoplankton in the samples has also been considered with Pearson correlation computed for each set of species.

  13. Comparison of MHD simulation codes for understanding nonlinear ELMs dynamics in KSTAR H-mode plasma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, M.; Lee, J.; Park, H. K.; Yun, G. S.; Xu, X.; Jardin, S. C.; Becoulet, M.

    2017-10-01

    KSTAR electron cyclotron emission imaging (ECEI) systems have contributed to understanding the fundamental physics of ELMs by high-quality 2D and quasi-3D images of ELMs. However, in the highly nonlinear phase of ELM dynamics, the interpretation of ECE signals becomes complicated intrinsically. Theoretical and numerical approaches are necessary to enhance the understanding of ELM physics. Well-established MHD codes (BOUT + + , JOREK, and M3D-C1) are introduced for comparative study with the observations. The nonlinear solutions are obtained using the same equilibrium of the KSTAR H-mode plasma. Each code shows the partial difference in mode evolution, probably, due to the difference in optimized operation window of initial conditions. The nonlinear simulation results show that low- n (n qualitatively matches with the recent ECEI observation just before ELM-crash, or excitation of non-modal solitary perturbation (typically, n = 1) which is highly localized in poloidal and toroidal. Regardless of differences in details, qualitative similarity can provide inspiration to understand the triggering of ELM-crash. This work is supported by NRF of Korea under Contract No. NRF-2014M1A7A1A03029865.

  14. Effects of Structural Transparency in System Dynamics Simulators on Performance and Understanding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Birgit Kopainsky

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Prior exploration is an instructional strategy that has improved performance and understanding in system-dynamics-based simulators, but only to a limited degree. This study investigates whether model transparency, that is, showing users the internal structure of models, can extend the prior exploration strategy and improve learning even more. In an experimental study, participants in a web-based simulation learned about and managed a small developing nation. All participants were provided the prior exploration strategy but only half received prior exploration embedded in a structure-behavior diagram intended to make the underlying model’s structure more transparent. Participants provided with the more transparent strategy demonstrated better understanding of the underlying model. Their performance, however, was the equivalent to those in the less transparent condition. Combined with previous studies, our results suggest that while prior exploration is a beneficial strategy for both performance and understanding, making the model structure transparent with structure-behavior diagrams is more limited in its effect.

  15. INTER-SEASONAL DYNAMICS OF VEGETATION COVER AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION: A CASE STUDY OF ONDO STATE, NIGERIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. A. Ibitolu

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This study employs Landsat ETM+ satellite imagery to access the inter-seasonal variations of Surface Temperature and Vegetation cover in Ondo State in 2013. Also, air temperature data for year 2013 acquired from 3 synoptic meteorological stations across the state were analyzed. The Single-channel Algorithm was used to extract the surface temperature maps from the digital number embedded within the individual pixel. To understand the spatio-temporal distribution of LST and vegetation across the various landuse types, 200 sample points were randomly chosen, so that each land-use covers 40 points. Imagery for the raining season where unavailable because of the intense cloud cover. Result showed that the lowest air temperature of 20.9°C was in January, while the highest air temperature of 34°C occurred in January and March. There was a significant shift in the vegetation greenness over Ondo State, as average NDVI tend to increase from a weak positive value (0.189 to a moderate value (0.419. The LULC map revealed that vegetation cover occupied the largest area (65% followed by Built-up (26%, Swampy land (4%, Rock outcrop (3% and water bodies (2%. The surface temperature maps revealed that January has the lowest temperature of 10°C experienced in the coastal riverine areas of Ilaje and Igbokoda, while the highest temperature of 39°C observed in September is experienced on the rocky grounds. The study also showed the existence of pockets of Urban Heat Islands (UHI that are well scattered all over the state. This finding proves the capability and reliability of Satellite remote sensing for environmental studies.

  16. Seasonal dynamics of permafrost carbon emissions: A passive, quasi-continuous 14CO2 sampler

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedron, S.; Xu, X.; Walker, J. C.; Welker, J. M.; Klein, E. S.; Euskirchen, E. S.; Czimczik, C. I.

    2017-12-01

    day at equivalent depths, indicating limited spatial variability (10-20 m) of soil [CO2]. Ongoing sampling and forthcoming 14C analyses will reveal how much plant (root) respiration contributes to ecosystem respiration in the fall, and elucidate the temporal dynamics of microbial C sources, specifically the decomposition of older permafrost C in winter.

  17. Seasonal dynamics in dissolved organic matter, hydrogen peroxide, and cyanobacterial blooms in Lake Erie

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rose M. Cory

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Hydrogen peroxide (H2O2 has been suggested to influence cyanobacterial community structure and toxicity. However, no study has investigated H2O2 concentrations in freshwaters relative to cyanobacterial blooms when sources and sinks of H2O2 may be highly variable. For example, photochemical production of H2O2 from chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM may vary over the course of the bloom with changing CDOM and UV light in the water column, while microbial sources and sinks of H2O2 may change with community biomass and composition. To assess relationships between H2O2 and harmful algal blooms dominated by toxic cyanobacteria in the western basin of Lake Erie, we measured H2O2 weekly at six stations from June – November, 2014 and 2015, with supporting physical, chemical, and biological water quality data. Nine additional stations across the western, eastern, and central basins of Lake Erie were sampled during August and October, 2015. CDOM sources were quantified from the fluorescence fraction of CDOM using parallel factor analysis (PARAFAC. CDOM concentration and source were significantly correlated with specific conductivity, demonstrating that discharge of terrestrially-derived CDOM from rivers can be tracked in the lake. Autochthonous sources of CDOM in the lake increased over the course of the blooms. Concentrations of H2O2 in Lake Erie ranged from 47 ± 16 nM to 1570 ± 16 nM (average of 371 ± 17 nM; n = 225, and were not correlated to CDOM concentration or source, UV light, or estimates of photochemical production of H2O2 by CDOM. Temporal patterns in H2O2 were more closely aligned with bloom dynamics in the lake. In 2014 and 2015, maximum concentrations of H2O2 were observed prior to peak water column respiration and chlorophyll a, coinciding with the onset of the widespread Microcystis blooms in late July. The spatial and temporal patterns in H2O2 concentrations suggested that production and decay of H2O2 from aquatic

  18. Soil nitrogen dynamics in high-altitude ski runs during the winter season (Monterosaski - Vallée d

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freppaz, M.; Icardi, M.; Filippa, G.; Zanini, E.

    2009-04-01

    In many Alpine catchments, the development of winter tourism determined a widespread change in land use, shifting from forested and cultivated lands to ski slopes. The construction of a ski slope implies a strong impact on the landscape, with potential consequences on the soil quality. In most cases, the construction procedures include the total or partial removal of the soil body, the reallocation of the fine hearth fraction, the subsequent seeding of plants and the use of organic fertilizers. This work aims to evaluate soil physical and chemical properties and nitrogen (N) dynamics in anthropogenic soils from ski slopes of different age. Study sites were located in Champoluc (AO)- NW Italy between 2400 and 2700 m ASL. Topsoils (0-10 cm depth) were sampled in 4 ski slopes hydroseeded with commercial mixtures 4, 6, 10 and 12 years earlier, and in 4 control plots at the same exposure and altitude as the ski slopes. Soil samples were characterized, N dynamics in winter was evaluated with the buried bag technique and snowpack was analyzed for chemical and physical properties. Total nitrogen (TN) content in topsoil ranged 0.75-1.06 g kg-1 and was not correlated with the ski slope age. In all but one site, the TN content was significantly lower in the ski slope than in the control plot. A positive net ammonification and nitrification throughout the winter were found in all but one ski runs. These results suggest a high variability in the evolution degree of these anthropogenic soils. The net overwinter N mineralization that we report demonstrates that these soils are biologically active during the winter season. Such activity results in a pool of labile inorganic nitrogen potentially available for plant demand at the spring snowmelt.

  19. Seasonal Rainfall Variability and its Impact on Vegetation Dynamics in the Southwestern United States: AN Outlook on Future Water Budget Issue

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sohoulande, D. C.; Singh, V. P.; Frauenfeld, O. W.

    2012-12-01

    Under global warming, the more likely rainfall scenario expected should be characterized by a high variability. Considering the watershed as a functional unit with a range of biophysical components, the present study targeted the interactions between vegetation dynamics and rainfall variability. The study used historical rainfall data from 370 ground based stations for the last five decades as well as spatial and the last 22 years remote sensed data over regional watersheds in the southwestern United States. The region of study is a part of the North American Monsoon Region, and the seasonal period June-July-August JJA was considered in the study. From 1895 to 2011, the JJA precipitations counted in average for 22 to 43% of total annual precipitation depending of the region and that percentage gets higher in arid regions. Entropy theory which is a probabilistic approach has been used to address precipitation variability issue in time and space. However, the present document targets the results obtained with the Texas Gulf watershed. Different seasonal rainfall characteristics such as number of rainfall events, rainfall amount was involved in the analysis of the interaction between seasonal rainfall variability and vegetation dynamics. The amount of the seasonal rainfall variability induced by the watershed characteristics was investigated through different time series analysis. In final we found out that seasonal rainfall variability tends to be higher in arid regions. More the impact of seasonal precipitation variability on vegetation tends to be more pronounced in arid regions. The implication on water budget was analyzed and it came out potential changes in future terrestrial hydrological process particularly in arid regions.elating spatial variability trend of seasonal number of rainfall events with humidity/aridity level in the Texas Gulf omparing NDVI trends in two regions with different rainfall variability Characteristics in the Texas Gulf watershed

  20. The importance of the relationship between scale and process in understanding long-term DOC dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, J M; Bottrell, S H; Evans, C D; Monteith, D T; Bartlett, R; Rose, R; Newton, R J; Chapman, P J

    2010-06-01

    Concentrations of dissolved organic carbon have increased in many, but not all, surface waters across acid impacted areas of Europe and North America over the last two decades. Over the last eight years several hypotheses have been put forward to explain these increases, but none are yet accepted universally. Research in this area appears to have reached a stalemate between those favouring declining atmospheric deposition, climate change or land management as the key driver of long-term DOC trends. While it is clear that many of these factors influence DOC dynamics in soil and stream waters, their effect varies over different temporal and spatial scales. We argue that regional differences in acid deposition loading may account for the apparent discrepancies between studies. DOC has shown strong monotonic increases in areas which have experienced strong downward trends in pollutant sulphur and/or seasalt deposition. Elsewhere climatic factors, that strongly influence seasonality, have also dominated inter-annual variability, and here long-term monotonic DOC trends are often difficult to detect. Furthermore, in areas receiving similar acid loadings, different catchment characteristics could have affected the site specific sensitivity to changes in acidity and therefore the magnitude of DOC release in response to changes in sulphur deposition. We suggest that confusion over these temporal and spatial scales of investigation has contributed unnecessarily to the disagreement over the main regional driver(s) of DOC trends, and that the data behind the majority of these studies is more compatible than is often conveyed. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Examining secular trends and seasonality in count data using dynamic generalized linear modelling: a new methodological approach illustrated with hospital discharge data on myocardial infarction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundbye-Christensen, S; Dethlefsen, C; Gorst-Rasmussen, A; Fischer, T; Schønheyder, H C; Rothman, K J; Sørensen, H T

    2009-01-01

    Time series of incidence counts often show secular trends and seasonal patterns. We present a model for incidence counts capable of handling a possible gradual change in growth rates and seasonal patterns, serial correlation, and overdispersion. The model resembles an ordinary time series regression model for Poisson counts. It differs in allowing the regression coefficients to vary gradually over time in a random fashion. During the 1983-1999 period, 17,989 incidents of acute myocardial infarction were recorded in the Hospital Discharge Registry for the county of North Jutland, Denmark. Records were updated daily. A dynamic model with a seasonal pattern and an approximately linear trend was fitted to the data, and diagnostic plots indicated a good model fit. The analysis conducted with the dynamic model revealed peaks coinciding with above-average influenza A activity. On average the dynamic model estimated a higher peak-to-trough ratio than traditional models, and showed gradual changes in seasonal patterns. Analyses conducted with this model provide insights not available from more traditional approaches.

  2. Effects of Cover Crop Species and Season on Population Dynamics of Escherichia coli and Listeria innocua in Soil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed-Jones, Neiunna L.; Marine, Sasha Cahn; Everts, Kathryne L.

    2016-01-01

    Cover crops provide several ecosystem services, but their impact on enteric bacterial survival remains unexplored. The influence of cover cropping on foodborne pathogen indicator bacteria was assessed in five cover crop/green manure systems: cereal rye, hairy vetch, crimson clover, hairy vetch-rye and crimson clover-rye mixtures, and bare ground. Cover crop plots were inoculated with Escherichia coli and Listeria innocua in the fall of 2013 and 2014 and tilled into the soil in the spring to form green manure. Soil samples were collected and the bacteria enumerated. Time was a factor for all bacterial populations studied in all fields (P innocua diminished somewhat but persisted, independently of season. In an organic field, the cover crop was a factor for E. coli in year 1 (P = 0.004) and for L. innocua in year 2 (P = 0.011). In year 1, E. coli levels were highest in the rye and hairy vetch-rye plots. In year 2, L. innocua levels were higher in hairy vetch-rye (P = 0.01) and hairy vetch (P = 0.03) plots than in the rye plot. Bacterial populations grew (P innocua numbers were observed after tilling (P innocua abundance in a transitional field (P < 0.05). Overall, the impacts of cover crops/green manures on bacterial population dynamics in soil varied, being influenced by bacterial species, time from inoculation, soil temperature, rainfall, and tillage; this reveals the need for long-term studies. PMID:26729724

  3. Understanding and Mastering Dynamics in Computing Grids Processing Moldable Tasks with User-Level Overlay

    CERN Document Server

    Moscicki, Jakub Tomasz

    Scientic communities are using a growing number of distributed systems, from lo- cal batch systems, community-specic services and supercomputers to general-purpose, global grid infrastructures. Increasing the research capabilities for science is the raison d'^etre of such infrastructures which provide access to diversied computational, storage and data resources at large scales. Grids are rather chaotic, highly heterogeneous, de- centralized systems where unpredictable workloads, component failures and variability of execution environments are commonplace. Understanding and mastering the hetero- geneity and dynamics of such distributed systems is prohibitive for end users if they are not supported by appropriate methods and tools. The time cost to learn and use the interfaces and idiosyncrasies of dierent distributed environments is another challenge. Obtaining more reliable application execution times and boosting parallel speedup are important to increase the research capabilities of scientic communities. L...

  4. An in silico modeling approach to understanding the dynamics of sarcoidosis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baltazar D Aguda

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Sarcoidosis is a polygenic disease with diverse phenotypic presentations characterized by an abnormal antigen-mediated Th1 type immune response. At present, progress towards understanding sarcoidosis disease mechanisms and the development of novel treatments is limited by constraints attendant to conducting human research in a rare disease in the absence of relevant animal models. We sought to develop a computational model to enhance our understanding of the pathological mechanisms of and predict potential treatments of sarcoidosis. METHODOLOGY/RESULTS: Based upon the literature, we developed a computational model of known interactions between essential immune cells (antigen-presenting macrophages, effector and regulatory T cells and cytokine mediators (IL-2, TNFα, IFNγ of granulomatous inflammation during sarcoidosis. The dynamics of these interactions are described by a set of ordinary differential equations. The model predicts bistable switching behavior which is consistent with normal (self-limited and "sarcoidosis-like" (sustained activation of the inflammatory components of the system following a single antigen challenge. By perturbing the influence of model components using inhibitors of the cytokine mediators, distinct clinically relevant disease phenotypes were represented. Finally, the model was shown to be useful for pre-clinical testing of therapies based upon molecular targets and dose-effect relationships. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our work illustrates a dynamic computer simulation of granulomatous inflammation scenarios that is useful for the investigation of disease mechanisms and for pre-clinical therapeutic testing. In lieu of relevant in vitro or animal surrogates, our model may provide for the screening of potential therapies for specific sarcoidosis disease phenotypes in advance of expensive clinical trials.

  5. Understanding Action and Adventure Sports Participation-An Ecological Dynamics Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Immonen, Tuomas; Brymer, Eric; Orth, Dominic; Davids, Keith; Feletti, Francesco; Liukkonen, Jarmo; Jaakkola, Timo

    2017-12-01

    Previous research has considered action and adventure sports using a variety of associated terms and definitions which has led to confusing discourse and contradictory research findings. Traditional narratives have typically considered participation exclusively as the pastime of young people with abnormal characteristics or personalities having unhealthy and pathological tendencies to take risks because of the need for thrill, excitement or an adrenaline 'rush'. Conversely, recent research has linked even the most extreme forms of action and adventure sports to positive physical and psychological health and well-being outcomes. Here, we argue that traditional frameworks have led to definitions, which, as currently used by researchers, ignore key elements constituting the essential merit of these sports. In this paper, we suggest that this lack of conceptual clarity in understanding cognitions, perception and action in action and adventure sports requires a comprehensive explanatory framework, ecological dynamics which considers person-environment interactions from a multidisciplinary perspective. Action and adventure sports can be fundamentally conceptualized as activities which flourish through creative exploration of novel movement experiences, continuously expanding and evolving beyond predetermined environmental, physical, psychological or sociocultural boundaries. The outcome is the emergence of a rich variety of participation styles and philosophical differences within and across activities. The purpose of this paper is twofold: (a) to point out some limitations of existing research on action and adventure sports; (b) based on key ideas from emerging research and an ecological dynamics approach, to propose a holistic multidisciplinary model for defining and understanding action and adventure sports that may better guide future research and practical implications.

  6. Application of network methods for understanding evolutionary dynamics in discrete habitats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenbaum, Gili; Fefferman, Nina H

    2017-06-01

    In populations occupying discrete habitat patches, gene flow between habitat patches may form an intricate population structure. In such structures, the evolutionary dynamics resulting from interaction of gene-flow patterns with other evolutionary forces may be exceedingly complex. Several models describing gene flow between discrete habitat patches have been presented in the population-genetics literature; however, these models have usually addressed relatively simple settings of habitable patches and have stopped short of providing general methodologies for addressing nontrivial gene-flow patterns. In the last decades, network theory - a branch of discrete mathematics concerned with complex interactions between discrete elements - has been applied to address several problems in population genetics by modelling gene flow between habitat patches using networks. Here, we present the idea and concepts of modelling complex gene flows in discrete habitats using networks. Our goal is to raise awareness to existing network theory applications in molecular ecology studies, as well as to outline the current and potential contribution of network methods to the understanding of evolutionary dynamics in discrete habitats. We review the main branches of network theory that have been, or that we believe potentially could be, applied to population genetics and molecular ecology research. We address applications to theoretical modelling and to empirical population-genetic studies, and we highlight future directions for extending the integration of network science with molecular ecology. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. Recent advances in understanding climate, glacier and river dynamics in high mountain Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Immerzeel, W.

    2016-12-01

    The water cycle in the Himalaya is poorly understood because of its extreme topography that results in complex interactions between climate, water stored in snow and glaciers and the hydrological processes. Hydrological extremes in the greater Himalayas regularly cause great damage, while high mountain Asia also supplies water to over 25% of the global population. So, the stakes are high and an accurate understanding of the Himalayan water cycle is imperative. The hydrology of the greater Himalayas is only marginally resolved due to the intricacy of monsoon dynamics, the poorly quantified dependence on the cryosphere and the physical constraints of doing research in high-altitude and generally inaccessible terrain. However, in recent years significant scientific advances have been made in field monitoring, modelling and remote sensing and the latest progress and outstanding challenges will be presented for three related fields. First focus will be on recent learnings about high altitude climate dynamics and the interaction between the atmosphere and the extreme mountain topography. Secondly, recent advances in how climate controls key glacio-hydrological processes in high-altitude catchments will be discussed with a particular focus on debris covered glaciers. Thirdly, new developments in glacio-hydrological modelling and approaches to climate change impact assessments will be reviewed. Finally, the outstanding scientific challenges will be synthesized that need to be addressed to fully close the high mountain water cycle and to be able to reduce the uncertainty in future projections of water availability and the occurrence of extreme events in high mountain Asia.

  8. Switching among graphic patterns is governed by oscillatory coordination dynamics: Implications for understanding handwriting.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pier-Giorgio eZanone

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Revisiting an original idea by Hollerbach (1981, previous work has established that the production of graphic shapes, assumed to be the blueprint for handwriting, is governed by the dynamics of orthogonal non-linear coupled oscillators. Such dynamics determines few stable coordination patterns, giving rise to a limited set of preferred graphic shapes, namely, four lines and four ellipsoids independent of orientation. The present study investigates the rules of switching among such graphic coordination patterns. Seven participants were required to voluntarily switch within twelve pairs of shapes presented on a graphic tablet. In line with previous theoretical and experimental work on bimanual coordination, results corroborated our hypothesis that the relative stability of the produced coordination patterns determines the time needed for switching: the transition to a more stable pattern was shorter, and inversely. Moreover, switching between patterns with the same orientation but different eccentricities was faster than with a change in orientation. Nonetheless, the switching time covaried strictly with the change in relative phase effected by the transition between two shapes, whether this implied a change in eccentricity or in orientation. These findings suggest a new operational definition of what the (motor units or strokes of handwriting are and shed a novel light on how co-articulation and recruitment of degrees of freedom may occur in graphic skills. They also yield some leads for understanding the acquisition and the neural underpinnings of handwriting.

  9. CALCULATING ROTATING HYDRODYNAMIC AND MAGNETOHYDRODYNAMIC WAVES TO UNDERSTAND MAGNETIC EFFECTS ON DYNAMICAL TIDES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wei, Xing, E-mail: xing.wei@sjtu.edu.cn [Institute of Natural Sciences and Department of Physics and Astronomy, Shanghai Jiao Tong University (China); Princeton University Observatory, Princeton, NJ 08544 (United States)

    2016-09-01

    To understand magnetic effects on dynamical tides, we study the rotating magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) flow driven by harmonic forcing. The linear responses are analytically derived in a periodic box under the local WKB approximation. Both the kinetic and Ohmic dissipations at the resonant frequencies are calculated, and the various parameters are investigated. Although magnetic pressure may be negligible compared to thermal pressure, the magnetic field can be important for the first-order perturbation, e.g., dynamical tides. It is found that the magnetic field splits the resonant frequency, namely the rotating hydrodynamic flow has only one resonant frequency, but the rotating MHD flow has two, one positive and the other negative. In the weak field regime the dissipations are asymmetric around the two resonant frequencies and this asymmetry is more striking with a weaker magnetic field. It is also found that both the kinetic and Ohmic dissipations at the resonant frequencies are inversely proportional to the Ekman number and the square of the wavenumber. The dissipation at the resonant frequency on small scales is almost equal to the dissipation at the non-resonant frequencies, namely the resonance takes its effect on the dissipation at intermediate length scales. Moreover, the waves with phase propagation that is perpendicular to the magnetic field are much more damped. It is also interesting to find that the frequency-averaged dissipation is constant. This result suggests that in compact objects, magnetic effects on tidal dissipation should be considered.

  10. Domain decomposition-based structural condensation of large protein structures for understanding their conformational dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jae In; Na, Sungsoo; Eom, Kilho

    2011-01-15

    Normal mode analysis (NMA) with coarse-grained model, such as elastic network model (ENM), has allowed the quantitative understanding of protein dynamics. As the protein size is increased, there emerges the expensive computational process to find the dynamically important low-frequency normal modes due to diagonalization of massive Hessian matrix. In this study, we have provided the domain decomposition-based structural condensation method that enables the efficient computations on low-frequency motions. Specifically, our coarse-graining method is established by coupling between model condensation (MC; Eom et al., J Comput Chem 2007, 28, 1400) and component mode synthesis (Kim et al., J Chem Theor Comput 2009, 5, 1931). A protein structure is first decomposed into substructural units, and then each substructural unit is coarse-grained by MC. Once the NMA is implemented to coarse-grained substructural units, normal modes and natural frequencies for each coarse-grained substructural unit are assembled by using geometric constraints to provide the normal modes and natural frequencies for whole protein structure. It is shown that our coarse-graining method enhances the computational efficiency for analysis of large protein complexes. It is clearly suggested that our coarse-graining method provides the B-factors of 100 large proteins, quantitatively comparable with those obtained from original NMA, with computational efficiency. Moreover, the collective behaviors and/or the correlated motions for model proteins are well delineated by our suggested coarse-grained models, quantitatively comparable with those computed from original NMA. It is implied that our coarse-grained method enables the computationally efficient studies on conformational dynamics of large protein complex.

  11. Toward an improved understanding of the role of transpiration in critical zone dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitra, B.; Papuga, S. A.

    2012-12-01

    Evapotranspiration (ET) is an important component of the total water balance across any ecosystem. In subalpine mixed-conifer ecosystems, transpiration (T) often dominates the total water flux and therefore improved understanding of T is critical for accurate assessment of catchment water balance and for understanding of the processes that governs the complex dynamics across critical zone (CZ). The interaction between T and plant vegetation not only modulates soil water balance but also influences water transit time and hydrochemical flux - key factors in our understanding of how the CZ evolves and responds. Unlike an eddy covariance system which provides only an integrated ET flux from an ecosystem, a sap flow system can provide an estimate of the T flux from the ecosystem. By isolating T, the ecohydrological drivers of this major water loss from the CZ can be identified. Still, the species composition of mixed-conifer ecosystems vary and the drivers of T associated with each species are expected to be different. Therefore, accurate quantification of T from a mixed-conifer requires knowledge of the unique transpiration dynamics of each of the tree species. Here, we installed a sap flow system within two mixed-conifer study sites of the Jemez River Basin - Santa Catalina Mountains Critical Zone Observatory (JRB - SCM CZO). At both sites, we identified the dominant tree species and installed sap flow sensors on healthy representatives for each of those species. At the JRB CZO site, sap sensors were installed in fir (4) and spruce (4) trees; at the SCM CZO site, sap sensors were installed at white fir (4) and maple (4) and one dead tree. Meteorological data as well as soil temperature (Ts) and soil moisture (θ) at multiple depths were also collected from each of the two sites. Preliminary analysis of two years of sap flux rate at JRB - SCM CZO shows that the environmental drivers of fir, spruce, and maple are different and also vary throughout the year. For JRB fir

  12. Population dynamics of Eldana saccharina Walker (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae): application of a biophysical model to understand phenological variation in an agricultural pest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleynhans, E; Barton, M G; Conlong, D E; Terblanche, J S

    2017-08-08

    Understanding pest population dynamics and seasonal phenology is a critical component of modern integrated pest-management programs. Accurate forecasting allows timely, cost-effective interventions, including maximum efficacy of, for example, biological control and/or sterile insect technique. Due to the variation in life stage-related sensitivity toward climate, insect pest population abundance models are often not easily interpreted or lack direct relevance to management strategies in the field. Here we apply a process-based (biophysical) model that incorporates climate data with life stage-dependent physiology and life history to attempt to predict Eldana saccharina life stage and generation turnover in sugarcane fields. Fitness traits are modelled at two agricultural locations in South Africa that differ in average temperature (hereafter a cold and a warm site). We test whether the life stage population structures in the field entering winter and local climate during winter directly affect development rates, and therefore interact to determine the population dynamics and phenological responses of E. saccharina in subsequent spring and summer seasons. The model predicts that: (1) E. saccharina can cycle through more generations at the warm site where fewer hours of cold and heat stress are endured, and (2) at the cold site, overwintering as pupae (rather than larvae) confer higher relative fitness and fecundity in the subsequent summer adult moths. The model predictions were compared with a large dataset of field observations from scouting records. Model predictions for larval presence (or absence) generally overlapped well with positive (or negative) scout records. These results are important for integrated pest management strategies by providing a useful foundation for future population dynamics models, and are applicable to a variety of agricultural landscapes, but especially the sugarcane industry of South Africa.

  13. Understanding Lithium Solvation and Diffusion through Topological Analysis of First-Principles Molecular Dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bhatia, Harsh [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Gyulassy, Attila [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Ong, Mitchell [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Lordi, Vincenzo [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Draeger, Erik [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Pask, John [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Pascucci, Valerio [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Bremer, Peer -Timo [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2016-09-27

    The performance of lithium-ion batteries is strongly influenced by the ionic conductivity of the electrolyte, which depends on the speed at which Li ions migrate across the cell and relates to their solvation structure. The choice of solvent can greatly impact, both, the solvation and diffusivity of Li ions. In this work, we present our application of the topological techniques to extract and predict such behavior in the data generated by the first-principles molecular dynamics simulation of Li ions in an important organic solvent -ethylene carbonate. More specifically, we use the scalar topology of the electron charge density field to analyze the evolution of the solvation structures. This allows us to derive a parameter-free bond definition for lithium-oxygen bonds, to provide a quantitative measure for bond strength, and to understand the regions of influence of each atom in the simulation. This has provided new insights into how and under what conditions certain bonds may form and break. As a result, we can identify and, more importantly, predict, unstable configurations in solvation structures. This can be very useful in understanding when small changes to the atoms' movements can cause significantly different bond structures to evolve. Ultimately, this promises to allow scientists to explore lithium ion solvation and diffusion more systematically, with the aim of new insights and potentially accelerating the calculations themselves.

  14. Understanding Land Use and Land Cover Dynamics from 1976 to 2014 in Yellow River Delta

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baolei Zhang

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Long-term intensive land use/cover changes (LUCCs of the Yellow River Delta (YRD have been happening since the 1960s. The land use patterns of the LUCCs are crucial for bio-diversity conservation and/or sustainable development. This study quantified patterns of the LUCCs, explored the systematic transitions, and identified wetland change trajectory for the period 1976–2014 in the YRD. Landsat imageries of 1976, 1984, 1995, 2006, and 2014 were used to derive nine land use classes. Post classification change detection analysis based on enhanced transition matrix was applied to identify land use dynamics and trajectory of wetland change. The five cartographic outputs for changes in land use underlined major decreases in natural wetland areas and increases in artificial wetland and non-wetland, especially aquafarms, salt pans and construction lands. The systematic transitions in the YRD were wetland degradation, wetland artificialization, and urbanization. Wetland change trajectory results demonstrated that the main wetland changes were wetland degradation and wetland artificialization. Coastline change is the subordinate reason for natural wetland degradation in comparison with human activities. The results of this study allowed for an improvement in the understanding of the LUCC processes and enabled researchers and planners to focus on the most important signals of systematic landscape transitions while also allowing for a better understanding of the proximate causes of changes.

  15. Behaviour as a Lever of Ecological Transition? Understanding and Acting on Individual Behaviour and Collective Dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, Solange; Gaspard, Albane

    2017-01-01

    Beyond broad policy declarations, the implementation of ecological transition - which consists mainly in curbing consumption of energy and raw materials in our societies - requires substantial behavioural change at the collective, but also, quite obviously, the individual level. Yet, though there is general consensus around the principle of embarking on the path to transition, things get more complicated when it comes to changing our practices and habits. Can we act on individual behaviour and collective dynamics in respect of this particular aim of ecological transition, and, if so, how are we to go about it? Solange Martin and Albane Gaspard have examined this question for the French Environment and Energy Management Agency (ADEME) and offer us the fruit of their labours here. They show, for example, how the social and human sciences help to understand behaviour both at the individual level and in its collective dimensions, and they outline different possible lines of action to modify it. But, given the entanglement between various levels, it is essential, if we are to act effectively on behaviour, to combine approaches, tools and actors, and to analyse and understand social practices thoroughly before implementing political projects or measures

  16. Modern Instrumentation of a Historical Landslide to Understand Dynamic Processes Governing Slope Movement in a Hostile Environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, K. A.

    2017-12-01

    The Milepost 6.2 Landslide on Many Glacier Road in Glacier National Park, Montana, has been moving since construction of the roadway in the early 1900's. Movement of the slide has a direct impact on Park operations and requires regrading and reconstruction of the road on a nearly annual basis. Prior attempts to stabilize the slope were not effective. Despite the history of this slide, very little quality data was available to delineate the depth and shape of the slide or the groundwater pressures that influence slope stability due to only seasonal data collection and a hostile winter environment. Landslide dynamics are further complicated where the toe of the slide becomes submerged seasonally by Lake Sherburne. In addition, due to irrigation use the lake levels fluctuate rapidly with seasonal rise and drops commonly greater than 30 feet in elevation. Five Shape Accelerometer Array inclinometers (SAAs) were installed to depths between 60 and 200 feet, along with 10 vibrating wire piezometers, one tipping bucket rain gauge, and onsite data acquisition system with a real-time satellite communication link enabling year-round data collection. Measurements of groundwater pressures and slide dynamics were used to develop a well constrained 2-D dynamic model of slide movement. Movement is controlled by clayey zones in glacial till deposits that mantle the valley slopes, along with water pressures from groundwater in the slope and fluctuating lake levels at the toe of the slope. The SAAs document slide plane locations and rates of slide movement as it changes through the year in response to the dynamic hydrologic setting. SAAs document sliding of over 3 feet and continue to operate and generate additional data. The data collected enabled the design of an extensive horizontal drain system to lower the groundwater pressures and stabilize the slope. Continuous year-round monitoring allowed comparison of slope movement in response to changes in lake elevation and precipitation

  17. Seasonal dynamics of megafauna on the deep West Antarctic Peninsula shelf in response to variable phytodetrital influx.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sumida, P Y G; Smith, C R; Bernardino, A F; Polito, P S; Vieira, D R

    2014-11-01

    The deep West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) shelf is characterized by intense deposition of phytodetritus during spring/summer months, while very little food material reaches the seafloor during winter. The response of the shelf benthic megafauna to this highly variable food supply is still poorly understood. In order to characterize the deposition of phytodetritus and the megabenthic community response, we deployed a seafloor time-lapse camera at approximately 590 m depth on the mid WAP shelf west of Anvers Island for 15 months. Seafloor photographs were taken at intervals of 12 or 24 h nearly continuously from 9 December 1999 (austral winter) to 20 March 2001 (summer) and analysed for phytodetritus deposition and megafaunal dynamics. Seafloor images indicated a marked seasonal arrival of greenish phytodetritus, with large interannual and seasonal variability in the coverage of depositing phytodetrital particles. The surface-deposit-feeding elasipod holothurians Protelpidia murrayi and Peniagone vignoni dominated the epibenthic megafauna throughout the year, frequently constituting more than 80% of the megafaunal abundance, attaining total densities of up to 2.4 individuals m(-2). Elasipod abundances were significantly higher in summer than winter. During summer periods of high phytodetrital flux, Pr. murrayi produced faecal casts at higher rates, indicating intensified population-level feeding activity. In March-June 2000, faecal casts lasted longest, suggesting lower horizontal bioturbation activity during autumn-winter. Our data indicate that the Pr. murrayi population increases its feeding rates in response to increasing amounts and/or lability of organic matter on the sediment surface. Assuming that this species feeds on the top millimetre of the sediment, we estimate that, during periods of high phytodetrital flux, the Pr. murrayi population reworks one square metre of sediment surface in approximately 287 days. We suggest that Pr. murrayi is an

  18. Synchrony, compensatory dynamics, and the functional trait basis of phenological diversity in a tropical dry forest tree community: effects of rainfall seasonality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lasky, Jesse R.; Uriarte, María; Muscarella, Robert

    2016-11-01

    Interspecific variation in phenology is a key axis of functional diversity, potentially mediating how communities respond to climate change. The diverse drivers of phenology act across multiple temporal scales. For example, abiotic constraints favor synchronous reproduction (positive covariance among species), while biotic interactions can favor synchrony or compensatory dynamics (negative covariance). We used wavelet analyses to examine phenology of community flower and seed production for 45 tree species across multiple temporal scales in a tropical dry forest in Puerto Rico with marked rainfall seasonality. We asked three questions: (1) do species exhibit synchronous or compensatory temporal dynamics in reproduction, (2) do interspecific differences in phenology reflect variable responses to rainfall, and (3) is interspecific variation in phenology and response to a major drought associated with functional traits that mediate responses to moisture? Community-level flowering was synchronized at seasonal scales (˜5-6 mo) and at short scales (˜1 mo, following rainfall). However, seed rain exhibited significant compensatory dynamics at intraseasonal scales (˜3 mo), suggesting interspecific variation in temporal niches. Species with large leaves (associated with sensitivity to water deficit) peaked in reproduction synchronously with the peak of seasonal rainfall (˜5 mo scale). By contrast, species with high wood specific gravity (associated with drought resistance) tended to flower in drier periods. Flowering of tall species and those with large leaves was most tightly linked to intraseasonal (˜2 mo scale) rainfall fluctuations. Although the 2015 drought dramatically reduced community-wide reproduction, functional traits were not associated with the magnitude of species-specific declines. Our results suggest opposing drivers of synchronous versus compensatory dynamics at different temporal scales. Phenology associations with functional traits indicated that

  19. Seasonal and Spatial Dynamics of the Primary Vector of Plasmodium knowlesi within a Major Transmission Focus in Sabah, Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Meng L; Chua, Tock H; Leong, Cherng S; Khaw, Loke T; Fornace, Kimberly; Wan-Sulaiman, Wan-Yusoff; William, Timothy; Drakeley, Chris; Ferguson, Heather M; Vythilingam, Indra

    2015-01-01

    The simian malaria parasite Plasmodium knowlesi is emerging as a public health problem in Southeast Asia, particularly in Malaysian Borneo where it now accounts for the greatest burden of malaria cases and deaths. Control is hindered by limited understanding of the ecology of potential vector species. We conducted a one year longitudinal study of P. knowlesi vectors in three sites within an endemic area of Sabah, Malaysia. All mosquitoes were captured using human landing catch. Anopheles mosquitoes were dissected to determine, oocyst, sporozoites and parous rate. Anopheles balabacensis is confirmed as the primary vector of. P. knowlesi (using nested PCR) in Sabah for the first time. Vector densities were significantly higher and more seasonally variable in the village than forest or small scale farming site. However An. balabacensis survival and P. knowlesi infection rates were highest in forest and small scale farm sites. Anopheles balabacensis mostly bites humans outdoors in the early evening between 1800 to 2000 hrs. This study indicates transmission is unlikely to be prevented by bednets. This combined with its high vectorial capacity poses a threat to malaria elimination programmes within the region.

  20. Subsurface flow pathway dynamics in the active layer of coupled permafrost-hydrogeological systems under seasonal and annual temperature variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frampton, Andrew

    2017-04-01

    There is a need for improved understanding of the mechanisms controlling subsurface solute transport in the active layer in order to better understand permafrost-hydrological-carbon feedbacks, in particular with regards to how dissolved carbon is transported in coupled surface and subsurface terrestrial arctic water systems under climate change. Studying solute transport in arctic systems is also relevant in the context of anthropogenic pollution which may increase due to increased activity in cold region environments. In this contribution subsurface solute transport subject to ground surface warming causing permafrost thaw and active layer change is studied using a physically based model of coupled cryotic and hydrogeological flow processes combined with a particle tracking method. Changes in subsurface water flows and solute transport travel times are analysed for different modelled geological configurations during a 100-year warming period. Results show that for all simulated cases, the minimum and mean travel times increase non-linearly with warming irrespective of geological configuration and heterogeneity structure. The timing of the start of increase in travel time depends on heterogeneity structure, combined with the rate of permafrost degradation that also depends on material thermal and hydrogeological properties. These travel time changes are shown to depend on combined warming effects of increase in pathway length due to deepening of the active layer, reduced transport velocities due to a shift from horizontal saturated groundwater flow near the surface to vertical water percolation deeper into the subsurface, and pathway length increase and temporary immobilization caused by cryosuction-induced seasonal freeze cycles. The impact these change mechanisms have on solute and dissolved substance transport is further analysed by integrating pathway analysis with a Lagrangian approach, incorporating considerations for both dissolved organic and inorganic

  1. Seasonal and inter-annual dynamics of growth, non-structural carbohydrates and C stable isotopes in a Mediterranean beech forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scartazza, Andrea; Moscatello, Stefano; Matteucci, Giorgio; Battistelli, Alberto; Brugnoli, Enrico

    2013-07-01

    Seasonal and inter-annual dynamics of growth, non-structural carbohydrates (NSC) and carbon isotope composition (δ(13)C) of NSC were studied in a beech forest of Central Italy over a 2-year period characterized by different environmental conditions. The net C assimilated by forest trees was mainly used to sustain growth early in the season and to accumulate storage carbohydrates in trunk and root wood in the later part of the season, before leaf shedding. Growth and NSC concentration dynamics were only slightly affected by the reduced soil water content (SWC) during the drier year. Conversely, the carbon isotope analysis on NSC revealed seasonal and inter-annual variations of photosynthetic and post-carboxylation fractionation processes, with a significant increase in δ(13)C of wood and leaf soluble sugars in the drier summer year than in the wetter one. The highly significant correlation between δ(13)C of leaf soluble sugars and SWC suggests a decrease of the canopy C isotope discrimination and, hence, an increased water-use efficiency with decreasing soil water availability. This may be a relevant trait for maintaining an acceptable plant water status and a relatively high C sink capacity during dry seasonal periods. Our results suggest a short- to medium-term homeostatic response of the Collelongo beech stand to variations in water availability and solar radiation, indicating that this Mediterranean forest was able to adjust carbon-water balance in order to prevent C depletion and to sustain plant growth and reserve accumulation during relatively dry seasons.

  2. Fluctuations of the experience of togetherness within the team over time: task-cohesion and shared understanding throughout a sporting regular season.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bourbousson, Jérôme; Fortes-Bourbousson, Marina

    2017-06-01

    Based on a diagnosis action research design, the present study assessed the fluctuations of the team experience of togetherness. Reported experiences of 12 basketball team members playing in the under-18 years old national championship were studied during a four-month training and competitive period. Time series analysis (Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average procedures) served to describe temporal properties of the way in which the fluctuations of task-cohesion and shared understanding were step-by-step experienced over time, respectively. Correlations, running-correlations and cross-lagged correlations were used to describe the temporal links that governed the relationships between both phenomena. The results indicated that the task-cohesion dimensions differed mainly for shared understanding dynamics in that their time fluctuations were not embedded in external events, and that the variations in shared understanding tend to precede 'individual attractions to the task' variations with seven team practical sessions. This study argues for further investigation of how 'togetherness' is experienced alternatively as a feeling of cohesion or shared understanding. Practitioner Summary: The present action research study investigated the experience that the team members have to share information during practice, and the subsequent benefices on team cohesion. Results call for specific interventions that make team members accept the fluctuating nature of team phenomena, to help them maintaining their daily efforts.

  3. Seasonal dynamics of atmospheric and river inputs of black carbon, and impacts on biogeochemical cycles in Halong Bay, Vietnam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xavier Mari

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Emissions of black carbon (BC, a product of incomplete combustion of fossil fuels, biofuels and biomass, are high in the Asia-Pacific region, yet input pathways and rates to the ocean are not well constrained. Atmospheric and riverine inputs of BC in Halong Bay (Vietnam, a hotspot of atmospheric BC, were studied at monthly intervals during one year. Climate in Halong Bay is governed by the monsoon regime, characterized by a northeast winter monsoon (dry season and southeast summer monsoon (wet season. During the dry season, atmospheric BC concentrations averaged twice those observed during the wet season. In the sea surface microlayer (SML and underlying water (ULW, concentrations of particulate BC (PBC averaged 539 and 11 μmol C L–1, respectively. Dissolved BC (DBC concentrations averaged 2.6 μmol C L–1 in both the SML and ULW. Seasonal variations indicated that PBC concentration in the SML was controlled by atmospheric deposition during the dry season, while riverine inputs controlled both PBC and DBC concentrations in ULW during the wet season. Spatiotemporal variations of PBC and DBC during the wet season suggest that river runoff was efficient in transporting PBC that had accumulated on land during the dry season, and in mobilizing and transporting DBC to the ocean. The annual river flux of PBC was about 3.8 times higher than that of DBC. The monsoon regime controls BC input to Halong Bay by favoring dry deposition of BC originating from the north during the dry season, and wet deposition and river runoff during the wet season. High PBC concentrations seem to enhance the transfer of organic carbon from dissolved to particulate phase by adsorbing dissolved organic carbon and stimulating aggregation. Such processes may impact the availability and biogeochemical cycling of other dissolved substances, including nutrients, for the coastal marine ecosystem.

  4. Understanding environmental drivers in the regulation of soil respiration dynamics after fire in semi-arid ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muñoz-Rojas, Miriam; Lewandrowski, Wolfgang; Erickson, Todd E.; Dixon, Kingsley W.; Merritt, David J.

    2016-04-01

    carried out one week after wildfire in the summer-wet season (February 2014) and repeated six months (in July 2014, during the winter-dry season) and twelve months after the wildfire (in February 2015, during the following summer-wet season). Soil physicochemical analyses were undertaken according to standard methods. Rs was measured with a 6400-09 portable soil CO2 flux chamber attached to a LI-COR 6400. Soil temperature was measured with a thermometer attached to the LI-COR and soil moisture with a portable Moisture Probe MP406. Both temperature and moisture were measured directly adjacent to the collars and simultaneously with Rs at a depth of 5 cm. Results and discussion Larger rates of Rs were found in the burnt areas compared to those unburnt. However, Rs showed a large variation among vegetation types in both burnt and unburnt areas for each time period following fire and Rs and soil organic C were consistently higher under Eucalyptus trees. Environmental factors (temperature and moisture) could explain a large fraction of Rs variability and therefore the roles of both water availability and temperature are critical to explain the CO2 fluxes in these environments. Yet, these relations are variable and change across vegetation types, indicating that specific models need to be used to accurately estimate Rs rates. This study demonstrates the importance of assessing CO2 fluxes following fire considering both environmental factors and vegetation types. This is particularly important in heterogeneous semi-arid areas that are characterized by patchy vegetation distribution where CO2 fluxes can be largely underestimated. References Granged, A.J.P., Jordán, A., Zavala, L.M, Muñoz-Rojas, M., Mataix-Solera, J., 2011. Short-term effects of experimental fire for a soil under eucalyptus forest (SE Australia). Geoderma 167-168, 125-134. Muñoz-Rojas, M., Lewandrowski, W., Martini, D., Erickson, T., Merritt, D., Dixon, K. 2015. Seasonal dynamics of soil CO2 efflux in biodiverse

  5. Seasonal dynamics of Sargassum ilicifolium (Phaeophyta) on a shallow reef flat in the southern Red Sea (Eritrea)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ateweberhan, M; Bruggemann, JH; Breeman, AM

    2005-01-01

    The seasonality of Sargassum ilicifolium was studied in the southern Red Sea by monitoring thallus density, thallus size and the initiation, growth, reproduction and survivorship of primary laterals. Thallus density showed slight but significant seasonal variation; it was highest at the end of the

  6. Dynamic Changes in Neutral and Acidic Ginsenosides with Different Cultivation Ages and Harvest Seasons: Identification of Chemical Characteristics for Panax ginseng Quality Control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zhi; Wang, Chong-Zhi; Zhu, Xing-You; Wan, Jin-Yi; Zhang, Jing; Li, Wei; Ruan, Chang-Chun; Yuan, Chun-Su

    2017-05-04

    In this study, dynamic changes in ginsenoside content and ratios in the Panax ginseng root were investigated with different cultivation ages and different collection months, using high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). Our data indicate that changes in ginsenoside Ro and malonyl ginsenosides content were dependent on the ginseng cultivation age ( p ginseng had high Ro/Re ratio, whereas two and three-year-old P. ginseng possessed low Ro/Re ratio. Thus, the Ro/Re ratio can be used as a characteristic marker for differentiating the age of the root. The relative content of ginsenosides Rg₁ and Re were affected by the ginseng's harvest season. The Re content was higher than the Rg₁ content in May and June, but lower than the Rg₁ content from August to October. Thus, the Rg₁/Re ratio can be used as a characteristic marker for differentiating the ginseng's harvest seasons. These results indicate that the chemical characteristics of P. ginseng at different cultivation ages and harvest seasons are clearly different, which may cause differences in pharmacological activities and therapeutic effects. In addition, we developed HPLC coupled with hierarchical cluster analysis and principal component analysis methods to identify the cultivation age and harvest season of P. ginseng using characteristic ginsenosides. Our results showed that this method can be used to discriminate the cultivation age and harvest season of P. ginseng.

  7. Understanding movement control in infants through the analysis of limb intersegmental dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, K; Zernicke, R F; Ulrich, B D; Jensen, J L; Thelen, E

    1990-12-01

    One important component in the understanding of the control of limb movements is the way in which the central nervous system accounts for joint forces and torques that may be generated not only by muscle actions but by gravity and by passive reactions related to the movements of limb segments. In this study, we asked how the neuromotor system of young infants controls a range of active and passive forces to produce a stereotypic, nonintentional movement. We specifically analyzed limb intersegmental dynamics in spontaneous, cyclic leg movements (kicking) of varying intensity in supine 3-month-old human infants. Using inverse dynamics, we calculated the contributions of active (muscular) and passive (motion-dependent and gravitational) torque components at the hip, knee, and ankle joints from three-dimensional limb kinematics. To calculate joint torques, accurate estimates were needed of the limb's anthropometric parameters, which we determined using a model of the human body. Our analysis of limb intersegmental dynamics explicitly quantified the complex interplay of active and passive forces producing the simple, involuntary kicking movements commonly seen in 3-month-old infants. our results revealed that in nonvigorous kicks, hip joint reversal was the result of an extensor torque due to gravity, opposed by the combined flexor effect of the muscle torque and the total motion-dependent torque. The total motion-dependent torque increased as a hip flexor torque in more vigorous kicks; an extensor muscle torque was necessary to counteract the flexor influences of the total motion-dependent torque and, in the case of large ranges of motion, a flexor gravity torque as well. Thus, with changing passive torque influences due to motions of the linked segments, the muscle torques were adjusted to produce a net torque to reverse the kicking motion. As a consequence, despite considerable heterogeneity in the intensity, range of motion, coordination, and movement context of

  8. Understanding the physical dynamics and ecological interactions in tidal stream energy environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraser, Shaun; Williamson, Benjamin J.; Nikora, Vladimir; Scott, Beth E.

    2017-04-01

    Tidal stream energy devices are intended to operate in energetic physical environments characterised by high flows and extreme turbulence. These environments are often of ecological importance to a range of marine species. Understanding the physical dynamics and ecological interactions at fine scales in such sites is essential for device/array design and to understand environmental impacts. However, investigating fine scale characteristics requires high resolution field measurements which are difficult to attain and interpret, with data often confounded by interference related to turbulence. Consequently, field observations in tidal stream energy environments are limited and require the development of specialised analysis methods and so significant knowledge gaps are still present. The seabed mounted FLOWBEC platform is addressing these knowledge gaps using upward facing instruments to collect information from around marine energy infrastructure. Multifrequency and multibeam echosounder data provide detailed information on the distribution and interactions of biological targets, such as fish and diving seabirds, while simultaneously recording the scales and intensity of turbulence. Novel processing methodologies and instrument integration techniques have been developed which combine different data types and successfully separates signal from noise to reveal new evidence about the behaviour of mobile species and the structure of turbulence at all speeds of the tide and throughout the water column. Multiple platform deployments in the presence and absence of marine energy infrastructure reveal the natural characteristics of high energy sites, and enable the interpretation of the physical and biological impacts of tidal stream devices. These methods and results are relevant to the design and consenting of marine renewable energy technologies, and provide novel information on the use of turbulence for foraging opportunities in high energy sites by mobile species.

  9. Soil Variable Permeability and Water Phase Change Dynamics in a Wastewater Spray Irrigation Agricultural System Located in a Seasonably Cold Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darnault, C. J. G.; Daniel, T. J.; Billy, G.; Hopkins, I.; Guo, L.; Jin, Z.; Gall, H. E.; Lin, H.

    2017-12-01

    The permeability of the upper meter of soils in frozen conditions, commonly referred to as the active layer, can vary exponentially given the time of year. Variable moisture contents along with temperature, radiation, and slope angle of the soil surface can result in variable depths of frozen soils, which can cause the formation of low permeability ice lenses well into the spring thaw period. The wastewater irrigation site known as the "Living Filter" located in State College, PA has been in continuous operation since 1962. On average 5500 m3/day of wastewater is applied to the site annually, even in the winter months when average temperatures can dip as low as -7 °C during the month of January. The Living Filter is not permitted to discharge to surface water and is intended to recharge the Spring Creek basin that directly underlies the site, therefore runoff from the site is not permitted. We hypothesize that water infiltrates the upper meter of the subsurface during the winter in several different ways such as preferential pathways in the ice layer created by plant stems and weak patches of ice thawed by the warm wastewater. 2D conceptual models of the phase change between ice and water in the soil were created in order to predict soil permeability and its change in temperature. The 2D conceptual models can be correlated between observed soil moisture content and soil temperature data in order to validate the model given spray irrigation and weather patterns. By determining the permeability of the frozen soils, irrigation practices can be adjusted for the winter months so as to reduce the risk of any accidental wastewater runoff. The impact of this study will result in a better understanding of the multiphase dynamics of the active layer and their implication on soil hydrology at the Living Filter and other seasonally frozen sites.

  10. Dynamics of gas-surface interactions atomic-level understanding of scattering processes at surfaces

    CERN Document Server

    Díez Muniño, Ricardo

    2013-01-01

    This book gives a representative survey of the state of the art of research on gas-surface interactions. It provides an overview of the current understanding of gas surface dynamics and, in particular, of the reactive and non-reactive processes of atoms and small molecules at surfaces. Leading scientists in the field, both from the theoretical and the experimental sides, write in this book about their most recent advances. Surface science grew as an interdisciplinary research area over the last decades, mostly because of new experimental technologies (ultra-high vacuum, for instance), as well as because of a novel paradigm, the ‘surface science’ approach. The book describes the second transformation which is now taking place pushed by the availability of powerful quantum-mechanical theoretical methods implemented numerically. In the book, experiment and theory progress hand in hand with an unprecedented degree of accuracy and control. The book presents how modern surface science targets the atomic-level u...

  11. Long-term analysis of Zostera noltei: A retrospective approach for understanding seagrasses' dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calleja, Felipe; Galván, Cristina; Silió-Calzada, Ana; Juanes, José A; Ondiviela, Bárbara

    2017-09-01

    Long-term studies are necessary to establish trends and to understand seagrasses' spatial and temporal dynamic. Nevertheless, this type of research is scarce, as the required databases are often unavailable. The objectives of this study are to create a method for mapping the seagrass Zostera noltei using remote sensing techniques, and to apply it to the characterization of the meadows' extension trend and the potential drivers of change. A time series was created using a novel method based on remote sensing techniques that proved to be adequate for mapping the seagrass in the emerged intertidal. The meadows seem to have a decreasing trend between 1984 and the early 2000s, followed by an increasing tendency that represents a recovery in the extension area of the species. This 30-year analysis demonstrated the Z. noltei's recovery in the study site, similar to that in other estuaries nearby and contrary to the worldwide decreasing behavior of seagrasses. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Understanding the Dynamics of the Coupled Ring Current Radiation Belt System Using 4D VERB Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shprits, Y.; Kellerman, A. C.; Drozdov, A.; Orlova, K.; Spasojevic, M.

    2014-12-01

    Predicting and understanding the non-linear response of different electron populations in the inner magnetosphere, including ring current and higher energy radiation belts, has been a grand challenge since the beginning of the space age. During this past decade, there have been a number of long-term simulations that used lower energy boundary condition observations around geosynchronous orbit. In this study, we set up observations at around 15 RE and study how the combined convective-diffusive transport can result in the acceleration of keV to relativistic and ultra-relativistic energies. We show that while lower energy radial transport is dominated by the convection, higher energy transport is dominated by the diffusive radial transport. MLT dependent diffusion confidents allow us to study how difference in wave properties at different MLT can influence the dynamics of the particles. Inclusion of adiabatic changes also allows us to study the radial transport that results from pitch-angle scattering and adiabatic changes. We also show that there exists an intermediate range of energies for electrons for which both processes work simultaneously. We show the comparison of the 4D VERB simulations with the Van Allen Probes measurements.

  13. Land use and land cover dynamics in the Brazilian Amazon: understanding human-environmental interactions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Souza Soler, de L.

    2014-01-01

    Land use and land cover dynamics are a result of the interactions between human activities and the environment. The objective of this thesis is to analyze Amazonian land use and land cover pattern dynamics in order to identify the underlying system dynamics. By combining empirical statistical

  14. Using Dynamic Tools to Develop an Understanding of the Fundamental Ideas of Calculus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verzosa, Debbie; Guzon, Angela Fatima; De Las Peñas, Ma. Louise Antonette N.

    2014-01-01

    Although dynamic geometry software has been extensively used for teaching calculus concepts, few studies have documented how these dynamic tools may be used for teaching the rigorous foundations of the calculus. In this paper, we describe lesson sequences utilizing dynamic tools for teaching the epsilon-delta definition of the limit and the…

  15. Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Trends in Surface Water and Flooding Extent from Three Decades of Seasonally Continuous Landsat Time Series at Subcontinental Scale: Product Development and Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tulbure, M. G.; Broich, M.; Stehman, S. V.; Shendryk, I.; Heimhuber, V.; Kommareddy, A.; Bishop-Taylor, R.

    2016-12-01

    Surface water is a critical resource in semi-arid areas. The Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) of Australia, one of the largest semi-arid basins in the world is aiming to set a worldwide example of how to balance multiple interests (i.e. environment, agriculture and urban use), but has suffered significant water shrinkages during the Millennium Drought (1999-2009), followed by extensive flooding. Baseline information and systematic quantification of surface water (SW) extent and flooding dynamics in space and time are needed for managing SW resources across the basin but are currently lacking. To synoptically quantify changes in SW extent and flooding dynamics over MDB, we used seasonally continuous Landsat TM and ETM+ data (1986 - 2011) and generic machine learning algorithms. We further mapped flooded forest at a riparian forest site that experienced severe tree dieback due to changes in flooding regime. We used a stratified sampling design to assess the accuracy of the SW product across time. Accuracy assessment yielded an overall classification accuracy of 99.94%, with producer's and user's accuracy of SW of 85.4% and 97.3%, respectively. Overall accuracy was the same for Landsat 5 and 7 data but user's and producer's accuracy of water were higher for Landsat 7 than 5 data and stable over time. Our validated results document a rapid loss in SW bodies. The number, size, and total area of SW showed high seasonal variability with highest numbers in winter and lowest numbers in summer. SW extent per season per year showed high interannual and seasonal variability, with low seasonal variability during the Millennium Drought. Examples of current uses of the new dataset will be presented and include (1) assessing ecosystem response to flooding with implications for environmental water releases, one of the largest investment in environment in Australia; (2) quantifying drivers of SW dynamics (e.g. climate, human activity); (3) quantifying changes in SW dynamics and

  16. Soil Properties and Earthworm Population Dynamics Influenced by Organic Manure in Winter and Spring Seasons at Rampur, Chitwan, Nepal

    OpenAIRE

    Roshan Babu Ojha; Shree Chand Shah; Keshab Raj Pande; Durga Datta Dhakal

    2014-01-01

    Two experiments were carried out in a Randomized Complete Block Design with six treatments (0, 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 Mg FYM ha-1) replicated four times at the horticultural farm, IAAS, Rampur, Chitwan, Nepal in winter (Oct-Jan) and spring (Feb-May) seasons to quantify optimum dose of organic manure (FYM) to maintain earthworm population and enhance soil properties. In each treatment 100 earthworms (Eisenia fetida) were inoculated within one square meter of each plot. Porosity in the first season...

  17. Soil CO2 Efflux Dynamics in the Northern Pantanal of Mato Grosso, Brazil during the Wet-Dry Season Transition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinto-Jr, O. B.; Vourlitis, G. L.; Hentz, C. S.; Arruda, P. H. Z. D.; Santanna, F. B.; Dias, M. D. F.; de Musis, C. R.; Nogueira, J. D. S.

    2014-12-01

    The roles of tropical wetlands in the global carbon (C) cycle are still poorly understood, especially in seasonally flooded forests that are expected to be important sinks for atmospheric CO2. We measured soil CO2 efflux during the wet-dry transition period in a seasonally flooded palm-dominated forest (locally known as Acorizal) to determine the effect of litter input and seasonal hydrology. Measurements were performed monthly as part of a field litter manipulation experiment consisting of three treatments (litter removal, litter addition, and control; n = 6 plots per treatment), and our research objectives were to determine how soil CO2 efflux varied as a function of (1) litter input, (2) root density, and (3) seasonal variation in soil water content. We found that litter addition significantly increased soil CO2 efflux, but there was no relationship between root density and soil CO2 efflux. Efflux was highest during the wet season and declined as soil water content declined. Our data demonstrate that variations in litter inputs and soil water content are important controls on soil CO2 efflux in seasonally flooded tropical forests.

  18. Seasonal and interannual variability in the taxonomic composition and production dynamics of phytoplankton assemblages in Crater Lake, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    C. David, McIntire; Larson, Gary L.; Truitt, Robert E.

    2007-01-01

    Taxonomic composition and production dynamics of phytoplankton assemblages in Crater Lake, Oregon, were examined during time periods between 1984 and 2000. The objectives of the study were (1) to investigate spatial and temporal patterns in species composition, chlorophyll concentration, and primary productivity relative to seasonal patterns of water circulation; (2) to explore relationships between water column chemistry and the taxonomic composition of the phytoplankton; and (3) to determine effects of primary and secondary consumers on the phytoplankton assemblage. An analysis of 690 samples obtained on 50 sampling dates from 14 depths in the water column found a total of 163 phytoplankton taxa, 134 of which were identified to genus and 101 were identified to the species or variety level of classification. Dominant species by density or biovolume included Nitzschia gracilis, Stephanodiscus hantzschii, Ankistrodesmus spiralis, Mougeotia parvula, Dinobryon sertularia, Tribonema affine, Aphanocapsa delicatissima, Synechocystis sp., Gymnodinium inversum, and Peridinium inconspicuum. When the lake was thermally stratified in late summer, some of these species exhibited a stratified vertical distribution in the water column. A cluster analysis of these data also revealed a vertical stratification of the flora from the middle of the summer through the early fall. Multivariate test statistics indicated that there was a significant relationship between the species composition of the phytoplankton and a corresponding set of chemical variables measured for samples from the water column. In this case, concentrations of total phosphorus, ammonia, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, and alkalinity were associated with interannual changes in the flora; whereas pH and concentrations of dissolved oxygen, orthophosphate, nitrate, and silicon were more closely related to spatial variation and thermal stratification. The maximum chlorophyll concentration when the lake was thermally stratified

  19. Seasonal effects and fine-scale population dynamics of Aedes taeniorhynchus, a major disease vector in the Galapagos Islands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bataille, Arnaud; Cunningham, Andrew A; Cruz, Marilyn; Cedeno, Virna; Goodman, Simon J

    2010-10-01

    Characterization of the fine-scale population dynamics of the mosquito Aedes taeniorhynchus is needed to improve our understanding of its role as a disease vector in the Galapagos Islands. We used microsatellite data to assess the genetic structure of coastal and highland mosquito populations and patterns of gene flow between the two habitats through time on Santa Cruz Island. In addition, we assessed possible associations of mosquito abundance and genetic diversity with environmental variables. The coastal and highland mosquito populations were highly differentiated from each other all year round, with some gene flow detected only during periods of increased precipitation. The results support the hypothesis that selection arising from ecological differences between habitats is driving adaptation and divergence in A. taeniorhynchus, and maintaining long-term genetic differentiation of the populations against gene flow. The highland and lowland populations may constitute an example of incipient speciation in progress. Highland populations were characterized by lower observed heterozygosity and allelic richness, suggesting a founder effect and/or lower breeding site availability in the highlands. A lack of reduction in genetic diversity over time in highland populations suggests that they survive dry periods as dormant eggs. Association between mosquito abundance and precipitation was strong in the highlands, whereas tide height was the main factor affecting mosquito abundance on the coast. Our findings suggests differences in the infection dynamics of mosquito-borne parasites in the highlands compared to the coast, and a higher risk of mosquito-driven disease spread across these habitats during periods of increased precipitation. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  20. Understanding the adoption dynamics of medical innovations: affordances of the da Vinci robot in the Netherlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abrishami, Payam; Boer, Albert; Horstman, Klasien

    2014-09-01

    This study explored the rather rapid adoption of a new surgical device - the da Vinci robot - in the Netherlands despite the high costs and its controversial clinical benefits. We used the concept 'affordances' as a conceptual-analytic tool to refer to the perceived promises, symbolic meanings, and utility values of an innovation constructed in the wider social context of use. This concept helps us empirically understand robot adoption. Data from 28 in-depth interviews with diverse purposively-sampled stakeholders, and from medical literature, policy documents, Health Technology Assessment reports, congress websites and patients' weblogs/forums between April 2009 and February 2014 were systematically analysed from the perspective of affordances. We distinguished five interrelated affordances of the robot that accounted for shaping and fulfilling its rapid adoption: 'characteristics-related' affordances such as smart nomenclature and novelty, symbolising high-tech clinical excellence; 'research-related' affordances offering medical-technical scientific excellence; 'entrepreneurship-related' affordances for performing better-than-the-competition; 'policy-related' affordances indicating the robot's liberalised provision and its reduced financial risks; and 'communication-related' affordances of the robot in shaping patients' choices and the public's expectations by resonating promising discourses while pushing uncertainties into the background. These affordances make the take-up and use of the da Vinci robot sound perfectly rational and inevitable. This Dutch case study demonstrates the fruitfulness of the affordances approach to empirically capturing the contextual dynamics of technology adoption in health care: exploring in-depth actors' interaction with the technology while considering the interpretative spaces created in situations of use. This approach can best elicit real-life value of innovations, values as defined through the eyes of (potential) users

  1. Advances in the understanding of nutrient dynamics and management in UK agriculture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dungait, Jennifer A.J.; Cardenas, Laura M.; Blackwell, Martin S.A.; Wu, Lianhai; Withers, Paul J.A.; Chadwick, David R.; Bol, Roland; Murray, Philip J.; Macdonald, Andrew J.; Whitmore, Andrew P.; Goulding, Keith W.T.

    2012-01-01

    Current research on macronutrient cycling in UK agricultural systems aims to optimise soil and nutrient management for improved agricultural production and minimise effects on the environment and provision of ecosystem services. Nutrient use inefficiencies can cause environmental pollution through the release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere and of soluble and particulate forms of N, P and carbon (C) in leachate and run-off into watercourses. Improving nutrient use efficiencies in agriculture calls for the development of sustainable nutrient management strategies: more efficient use of mineral fertilisers, increased recovery and recycling of waste nutrients, and, better exploitation of the substantial inorganic and organic reserves of nutrients in the soil. Long-term field experimentation in the UK has provided key knowledge of the main nutrient transformations in agricultural soils. Emerging analytical technologies, especially stable isotope labelling, that better characterise macronutrient forms and bioavailability and improve the quantification of the complex relationships between the macronutrients in soils at the molecular scale, are augmenting this knowledge by revealing the underlying processes. The challenge for the future is to determine the relationships between the dynamics of N, P and C across scales, which will require both new modelling approaches and integrated approaches to macronutrient cycling. -- Highlights: ► Major advances in the knowledge of macronutrient cycling in agricultural soils are reviewed in the context of management. ► Novel analytical techniques and innovative modelling approaches that enhance understanding of nutrient cycling are explored. ► Knowledge gaps are identified, and the potential to improve comprehension of the integrated nutrient cycles is considered.

  2. Appreciating the ties that bind technical communication to culture: A dynamic model to help us understand differences in discourse structure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kastberg, Peter; Kampf, Constance

    In order to support an explicit understanding of cultural patterns as both dynamic and structured, we will examine Hofstede?s model for stabilization of cultural patterns, and use this model to explore some cultural consequences for patterns of logic and signs that influence the effectiveness of ...

  3. Cross-correlation and time history analysis of laser dynamic specklegram imaging for quality evaluation and assessment of certain seasonal fruits and vegetables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samuel, Boni; Retheesh, R.; Zaheer Ansari, Md; Nampoori, V. P. N.; Radhakrishnan, P.; Mujeeb, A.

    2017-10-01

    Quality evaluation of fruits and vegetables is of great concern as there is a shortage of unadulterated items on the market. Even unadulterated fruits and vegetables, especially those with soft tissue, cannot be stored for longer times due to physical and chemical changes. Moreover, damage can occur during harvest and in the post-harvest period, while preserving or transporting the fruits and vegetables. This work describes the use of a laser dynamic speckle imaging technique as a powerful optoelectronic tool for the quality evaluation of certain seasonal fruits and vegetables in an Indian market. A simple optical configuration was designed for developing the dynamic speckle imagining system to record dynamic specklegrams of the specimens under different conditions. These images were analysed using a cross-correlation function and the temporal history of specklegrams. The technique can be effectively adapted to the industrial environment and would be beneficial for all stakeholders in the field.

  4. Seasonal and Spatial Environmental Influence on Opisthorchis viverrini Intermediate Hosts, Abundance, and Distribution: Insights on Transmission Dynamics and Sustainable Control.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christina Sunyoung Kim

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Opisthorchis viverrini (Ov is a complex-life-cycle trematode affecting 10 million people in SEA (Southeast Asia. Human infection occurs when infected cyprinid fish are consumed raw or undercooked. Ov requires three hosts and presents two free-living parasitic stages. As a consequence Ov transmission and infection in intermediate and human hosts are strongly mediated by environmental factors and understanding how environmental variability influences intermediate host abundance is critical. The objectives of this study were 1 to document water parameters, intermediate hosts abundance and infection spatio-temporal variation, 2 to assess their causal relationships and identify windows of transmission risk.Fish and snails were collected monthly for one year at 12 sites in Lawa Lake, an Ov-endemic region of Khon Kaen Province in Northeast Thailand. Physicochemical water parameters [pH, temperature (Tp, dissolved oxygen (DO, Salinity, electrical conductivity (EC, total dissolved solid (TDS, nitrite nitrogen (NO2-N, lead (Pb, total coliform bacteria (TCB and fecal coliform bacteria (FCB] were measured. Multivariate analyses, linear models and kriging were used to characterize water parameter variation and its influence on host abundance and infection prevalence. We found that sampling sites could be grouped in three clusters and discriminated along a nitrogen-salinity gradient where higher levels in the lake's southern region predicted higher Bithynia relative abundance (P<0.05 and lower snail and fish species diversity (P<0.05. Highest Bithynia abundance occurred during rainy season (P<0.001, independently of site influence. Cyprinids were the most abundant fish family and higher cyprinid relative abundance was found in areas with higher Bithynia relative abundance (P<0.05. Ov infection in snails was anecdotal while Ov infection in fish was higher in the southern region (P<0.001 at sites showing high FCB.Our results indicate that water contamination

  5. Attributing seasonal pH variability in surface ocean waters to governing factors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hagens, M.; Middelburg, J.J.

    2016-01-01

    On-going ocean acidification and increasing availability of high-frequency pH data have stimulated interest to understand seasonal pH dynamics in surface waters. Here we show that it is possible to accurately reproduce observed pH values by combining seasonal changes in temperature (T), dissolved

  6. Understanding the Earth Systems: Expressions of Dynamic and Cyclic Thinking among University Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batzri, Or; Ben Zvi Assaraf, Orit; Cohen, Carmit; Orion, Nir

    2015-01-01

    In this two-part study, we examine undergraduate university students' expression of two important system thinking characteristics--dynamic thinking and cyclic thinking--focusing particularly on students of geology. The study was conducted using an Earth systems questionnaire designed to elicit and reflect either dynamic or cyclic thinking. The…

  7. Long-term functionality of rural water services in developing countries: a system dynamics approach to understanding the dynamic interaction of factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walters, Jeffrey P; Javernick-Will, Amy N

    2015-04-21

    Research has shown that sustainability of rural water infrastructure in developing countries is largely affected by the dynamic and systemic interactions of technical, social, financial, institutional, and environmental factors that can lead to premature water system failure. This research employs system dynamics modeling, which uses feedback mechanisms to understand how these factors interact dynamically to influence long-term rural water system functionality. To do this, the research first identified and aggregated key factors from the literature, then asked water sector experts to indicate the polarity and strength between factors through Delphi and cross impact survey questionnaires, and finally used system dynamics modeling to identify and prioritize feedback mechanisms. The resulting model identified 101 feedback mechanisms that were dominated primarily by three- and four-factor mechanisms that contained some combination of the factors: Water System Functionality, Community, Financial, Government, Management, and Technology, implying these factors were the most influential on long-term functionality. These feedback mechanisms were then scored and prioritized, with the most dominant feedback mechanism identified as Water System Functionality-Community-Finance-Management. This study showcases a way for practitioners to better understand the complexities inherent in rural water development using expert opinion and indicates the need for future research in rural water service sustainability that investigates the dynamic interaction of factors in different contexts.

  8. Structure and Dynamics of Floods in the upper Delaware River Basin: An Integrated Seasonal Forecasting System for New York City Reservoirs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Najibi, N.; Devineni, N.

    2016-12-01

    The National Weather Service River Forecasting System (NWS-RFS) issues 3-month lead probabilistic forecasts of streamflow for many river basins in the contiguous United States from 12 river forecasting centers. The Ensemble Streamflow Prediction system from NWS-RFS uses conceptual hydrologic models to issue streamflow forecasts based on the current soil moisture, river, and reservoir conditions by assuming that past meteorological events will recur in the future with historical probabilities. Recent investigations focusing on the teleconnection between anomalous sea surface temperature conditions and regional/continental hydroclimatology show that interannual and interdecadal variability in exogenous climatic indices modulates the regional streamflow patterns. In this work, we present a comprehensive framework to quantify the structure and dynamics of floods for the upper Delaware River Basin based on the interaction between the exogenous climate and weather patterns and antecedent flow regimes. We focus on estimating the conditional distribution of flood volume, duration, peak and timing based on large-scale climatic teleconnections (seasonal sea level pressure and pre-season sea surface temperature) and macroscale hydrological factors (start of the season's flow, seasonal rainfall duration and intensity, pre-season snow depth and cover in watershed, and concurrent rain over snow (ROS) events). Statistical techniques such as the semi-parametric k-nearest neighbor resampling, multivariate Kalman filters, and hierarchical Bayesian methods are explored as a strategy to address both model and parameter uncertainties. Ultimately proactive decision models embedded into the operating rules based on the forecasted future conditions -instead of reactive decisions based on current observed conditions- can result in risk mitigation.

  9. Dynamic Changes in Neutral and Acidic Ginsenosides with Different Cultivation Ages and Harvest Seasons: Identification of Chemical Characteristics for Panax ginseng Quality Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhi Liu

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available In this study, dynamic changes in ginsenoside content and ratios in the Panax ginseng root were investigated with different cultivation ages and different collection months, using high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC. Our data indicate that changes in ginsenoside Ro and malonyl ginsenosides content were dependent on the ginseng cultivation age (p < 0.05; especially, the Ro content varied from 0.16 to 4.91 mg/g, with a difference about 30-fold. Further, we found that the samples of 5 and 6-year-old P. ginseng had high Ro/Re ratio, whereas two and three-year-old P. ginseng possessed low Ro/Re ratio. Thus, the Ro/Re ratio can be used as a characteristic marker for differentiating the age of the root. The relative content of ginsenosides Rg1 and Re were affected by the ginseng’s harvest season. The Re content was higher than the Rg1 content in May and June, but lower than the Rg1 content from August to October. Thus, the Rg1/Re ratio can be used as a characteristic marker for differentiating the ginseng’s harvest seasons. These results indicate that the chemical characteristics of P. ginseng at different cultivation ages and harvest seasons are clearly different, which may cause differences in pharmacological activities and therapeutic effects. In addition, we developed HPLC coupled with hierarchical cluster analysis and principal component analysis methods to identify the cultivation age and harvest season of P. ginseng using characteristic ginsenosides. Our results showed that this method can be used to discriminate the cultivation age and harvest season of P. ginseng.

  10. Dynamical forecast vs Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP): how sensitive are monthly and seasonal hydrological forecasts to the quality of rainfall drivers?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanguy, Maliko; Prudhomme, Christel; Harrigan, Shaun; Smith, Katie

    2017-04-01

    Seasonal forecasting of hydrological extremes is challenging for the hydro-meteorological modelling community, and the performance of hydrological forecasts at lead times over 1 month is still poor especially for catchments with limited hydrological memory. A considerable amount of effort is being invested within the meteorological community to improve dynamic meteorological forecasting which can then be used to drive hydrological models to produce physically-driven hydrological forecasts. However, currently for the UK, these meteorological forecasts are being produced at 1 month or seasonal time-step, whereas hydrological models often require daily or sub-daily time-steps. A simpler way to get seasonal forecasts is to use historical climate data to drive hydrological models using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP). This gives a range of possible future hydrological status given known initial conditions, but it does not contain any information on the future dynamic of the atmosphere. The error is highly dependent on the type of catchment, but ESP is an improvement compared to simply using climatology of river flows, especially in groundwater dominated catchments. The objective of this study is to find out how accurate the seasonal rainfall forecast has to be (in terms of total rainfall and temporal distribution) for the dynamical seasonal forecast to beat ESP. To this aim, we have looked at the sensitivity of hydrological models to the quality of driving rainfall input, proxy of 'best possible' forecasts. Study catchments representative of the range of UK's hydro-climatic conditions were selected. For these catchments, synthetic rainfall time series derived from observed data were created by increasingly degrading the data. The number of rainy days, their intensity and their sequencing were artificially modified to analyse which of these characteristics is most important to get a better hydrological forecast using a simple lumped hydrological model (GR4J), and

  11. Understanding Keystroke Dynamics for Smartphone Users Authentication and Keystroke Dynamics on Smartphones Built-In Motion Sensors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyungu Lee

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Personal Identification Numbers (PINs and pattern drawing have been used as common authentication methods especially on smartphones. Such methods, however, are very vulnerable to the shoulder surfing attack. Thus, keystroke dynamics that authenticate legitimate users based on their typing manner have been studied for years. However, many of the studies have focused on PC keyboard keystrokes. More studies on mobile and smartphones keystroke dynamics are warranted; as smartphones make progress in both hardware and software, features from smartphones have been diversified. In this paper, using various features including keystroke data such as time interval and motion data such as accelerometers and rotation values, we evaluate features with motion data and without motion data. We also compare 5 formulas for motion data, respectively. We also demonstrate that opposite gender match between a legitimate user and impostors has influence on authenticating by our experiment results.

  12. Spatial and temporal dynamics of commercial reef-fish fisheries on the West Florida Shelf: Understanding drivers of fleet behavior and the implications for future management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cockrell, M.; Murawski, S. A.; Sanchirico, J. N.; O'Farrell, S.; Strelcheck, A.

    2016-02-01

    Spatial and temporal patterns of fishing activity have historically been described over relatively coarse scales or with limited datasets. However, new and innovative approaches for fisheries management will require an understanding of both species population dynamics and fleet behavior at finer spatial and temporal resolution. In this study we describe the spatial and temporal patterns of commercial reef-fish fisheries on the West Florida Shelf (WFS) from 2006-14, using a combination of on-board observer, catch logbook, and vessel satellite tracking data. The satellite tracking data is both high resolution (ie, records from each vessel at least once every hour for the duration of a trip), and required of all federally-permitted reef fish vessels in the Gulf of Mexico, making this a uniquely rich and powerful dataset. Along with spatial and temporal fishery dynamics, we quantified concomitant patterns in fishery economics and catch metrics, such as total landings and catch composition. Fishery patterns were correlated to a number of variables across the vessel, trip, and whole fleet scales, including vessel size, distance from home port, number of days at sea, and days available to fish. Notably, changes in management structure during the years examined (eg, establishment of a seasonal closed area in 2009 and implementation of an individual fishing quota system for Grouper-Tilefish in 2010), as well as emergency spatial closures during the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in 2010, enabled us to examine the impacts of specific management frameworks on the WFS reef-fish fishery. This research highlights the need to better understand the biological, economic, and social impacts within fisheries when managing for conservation and fisheries sustainability. We discuss our results in the context of a changing policy and management landscape for marine and coastal resources in the Gulf of Mexico.

  13. d15N dynamics of ammonium and particulate nitrogen during the growth season of a eutrophic estuary

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    De Brabandere, Loreto; Brion, N.; Elskens, M.

    2007-01-01

    We monitored the stable nitrogen isotopic composition (d15N) of suspended matter and ammonium in the freshwater stretch of the Scheldt estuary (Belgium) over a full year to investigate for seasonal evolution and possible co-variation between isotopic signatures. The d15N value of ammonium remained...

  14. Seasonal dynamics and annual production of Cystoseira crinita (Fucales: Ochrophyta-dominated assemblages from the northwestern Mediterranean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marta Sales

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Algae of the genus Cystoseira are the main engineering species on Mediterranean shallow rocky bottoms. Cystoseira crinita is an endemic species which grows in shallow and rather sheltered environments throughout the entire Mediterranean Sea. In order to investigate its role in structuring benthic assemblages and as a primary producer, three localities were sampled every two months during one year in Menorca (Balearic Islands. The total biomass of Cystoseira crinita-dominated assemblages showed a seasonal pattern mainly due to temporal changes in the biomass of the dominant alga. The assemblages also showed seasonality in their species richness (number of species per sample. Both total biomass and species richness peaked in summer, and their lowest values were recorded in winter. Despite these temporal patterns, C. crinita-dominated assemblages from Menorca showed reduced seasonality compared to C. crinita-dominated assemblages in other areas in the western Mediterranean, as C. crinita specimens kept their branches throughout the entire year. Total annual production of Cystoseira crinita branches and cauloids was around 1230 g dwt m–2, which is higher than that of other Cystoseira species living in sheltered areas but much lower than that of Cystoseira species growing on exposed shores. Production was highly seasonal, and was highest in spring and null in winter and late summer.

  15. Quercus pollen season dynamics in the Iberian peninsula: response to meteorological parameters and possible consequences of climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Mozo, Herminia; Galan, Carmen; Jato, Victoria; Belmonte, Jordina; de la Guardia, Consuelo; Fernandez, Delia; Gutierrez, Montserrat; Aira, M; Roure, Joan; Ruiz, Luis; Trigo, Mar; Dominguez-Vilches, Eugenio

    2006-01-01

    The main characteristics of the Quercus pollination season were studied in 14 different localities of the Iberian Peninsula from 1992-2004. Results show that Quercus flowering season has tended to start earlier in recent years, probably due to the increased temperatures in the pre-flowering period, detected at study sites over the second half of the 20th century. A Growing Degree Days forecasting model was used, together with future meteorological data forecast using the Regional Climate Model developed by the Hadley Meteorological Centre, in order to determine the expected advance in the start of Quercus pollination in future years. At each study site, airborne pollen curves presented a similar pattern in all study years, with different peaks over the season attributable in many cases to the presence of several species. High pollen concentrations were recorded, particularly at Mediterranean sites. This study also proposes forecasting models to predict both daily pollen values and annual pollen emission. All models were externally validated using data for 2001 and 2004, with acceptable results. Finally, the impact of the highly-likely climate change on Iberian Quercus pollen concentration values was studied by applying RCM meteorological data for different future years, 2025, 2050, 2075 and 2099. Results indicate that under a doubled CO(2) scenario at the end of the 21st century Quercus pollination season could start on average one month earlier and airborne pollen concentrations will increase by 50 % with respect to current levels, with higher values in Mediterranean inland areas.

  16. Understanding system dynamics of an adaptive enzyme network from globally profiled kinetic parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiang, Austin W T; Liu, Wei-Chung; Charusanti, Pep; Hwang, Ming-Jing

    2014-01-15

    A major challenge in mathematical modeling of biological systems is to determine how model parameters contribute to systems dynamics. As biological processes are often complex in nature, it is desirable to address this issue using a systematic approach. Here, we propose a simple methodology that first performs an enrichment test to find patterns in the values of globally profiled kinetic parameters with which a model can produce the required system dynamics; this is then followed by a statistical test to elucidate the association between individual parameters and different parts of the system's dynamics. We demonstrate our methodology on a prototype biological system of perfect adaptation dynamics, namely the chemotaxis model for Escherichia coli. Our results agreed well with those derived from experimental data and theoretical studies in the literature. Using this model system, we showed that there are motifs in kinetic parameters and that these motifs are governed by constraints of the specified system dynamics. A systematic approach based on enrichment statistical tests has been developed to elucidate the relationships between model parameters and the roles they play in affecting system dynamics of a prototype biological network. The proposed approach is generally applicable and therefore can find wide use in systems biology modeling research.

  17. Understanding the Earth Systems: Expressions of Dynamic and Cyclic Thinking Among University Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batzri, Or; Ben Zvi Assaraf, Orit; Cohen, Carmit; Orion, Nir

    2015-12-01

    In this two-part study, we examine undergraduate university students' expression of two important system thinking characteristics—dynamic thinking and cyclic thinking—focusing particularly on students of geology. The study was conducted using an Earth systems questionnaire designed to elicit and reflect either dynamic or cyclic thinking. The study's first part was quantitative. Its population consisted of a research group (223 students majoring in geology or physical geography) and a control group (312 students with no background in geology). The students were asked to rate their agreement with each statement on a Likert scale. Overall, the students in the research group expressed higher levels of dynamic thinking than those in the control group. The geology students showed relatively strong dynamic thinking toward the geosphere and hydrosphere, but not the biosphere. In cyclic thinking, their levels were significantly higher for all Earth systems, suggesting a connection between learning about different cycles in Earth systems, developing cyclic thinking and applying it to other Earth cycles. The second part was qualitative and administered only to the students who majored in geology. They were asked to freely explain their answers to the questionnaire's statements. Our aim was to identify recurring patterns in how these students express their dynamic and cyclic thinking. Their explanations were given to four experts in the field of Earth science, who then presented, in a semi-structured interview, the recurring characteristics of dynamic thinking that they found in the students' explanations.

  18. Evaluation of Seasonality in Shallow Groundwater Dynamics and Storage in an Urban Prairie Nature Preserve Using a High-Frequency Sensing Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivera, V. A.; Hernandez-Gonzalez, L. M.; Phillips, C. B.; Nair, A.; Negri, M. C.; Gnaedinger, K. J.; Miller, W. M.; Packman, A. I.

    2017-12-01

    Changing regional climate applies stresses to urban areas in the form of altered weather patterns, requiring new strategies for stormwater runoff management and flood mitigation. At the same time, the proportion of people residing in urban areas is increasing and cities are turning to greenspace as a tool for managing runoff. Gensburg Markham Prairie (GMP), located in Markham, Illinois south of Chicago, is an urban prairie nature preserve and a U.S. National Natural Landmark. Owned by Northeastern Illinois University and managed by the Nature Conservancy, GMP receives runoff from surrounding urban areas and provides valuable stormwater storage, while also hosting high biodiversity and providing critical habitat for sensitive and endemic. A successful management strategy for GMP should preserve both of these valuable ecosystem services. To understand GMP's role within the urban environment, we installed a suite of instruments in 2016 and 2017 to measure surface and groundwater levels, rainfall, soil moisture, and electrical conductivity throughout the prairie. This monitoring network includes 40 sensors collecting high frequency data (every 30 minutes). We are also collecting monthly distributed surface and groundwater samples to quantify a range of anions and cations that signal potentially detrimental anthropogenic impacts on the prairie. In addition, we are using historical and ongoing plant distribution surveys to explore the interactions between spatial patterns in vegetation and water dynamics in the prairie. The high measurement frequency and large diversity of sensor types supports holistic investigation of the response of the prairie to diverse events, including summer thunderstorms, winter road salt runoff, and spring snowmelt. The 18 months of data collected to date reveals clear patterns in response to weather events with influence from soil type and spatial variables. We are using time-series analysis with MODFLOW modelling to explore surface

  19. Interannual and seasonal dynamics, and the age, of nonstructural carbohydrate pools in the stemwood of temperate trees across a climatic gradient in New England

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, A. D.; Carbone, M. S.; Czimczik, C. I.; Keenan, T. F.; Schaberg, P.; Xu, X.

    2011-12-01

    Like all plants, forest trees accumulate and store surplus mobile carbon (C) compounds as resources to be used to support future growth. This can be viewed as a bet-hedging strategy, providing reserves that the tree can draw on in times of stress-e.g., following disturbance, disease, or extreme climatic events. In the context of climate change, understanding factors influencing the availability of these stored C compounds to support growth and metabolism is essential for predicting the resilience of forests to environmental stress factors. We conducted this study to investigate the role of these stored C pools in the context ecosystem C balance at time scales from days to years. At quarterly intervals over a three year period, we monitored stemwood total nonstructural carbohydrate (TNC) concentrations of the dominant tree species of New England. Work was conducted at three sites along a climatic gradient: an oak-dominated transition hardwood forest (Harvard Forest), a maple-beech-birch northern hardwood forest (Bartlett Experimental Forest), and a spruce-fir forest (Howland Forest). We observed large differences among species both in TNC concentrations, and in how the TNC pool is partitioned to different compounds (starch, sucrose, glucose, fructose, raffinose, xylose and stachyose). Within a species, however, seasonal dynamics were remarkably similar across sites. The interannual variability in maximum TNC concentrations appears to be smaller than interannual variability in annual net ecosystem exchange of CO2. With an additional set of samples, we are using the bomb radiocarbon (14C) spike to estimate the average age of the sugars and starches in the TNC pool, and relating this to factors such as size, age, and recent growth rates of each tree. Initial results suggest that these TNC pools range in age from several years to several decades old. The average ages of starch and sugar pools are related, with the starches generally being older than sugars

  20. Virtual Laboratory in the Role of Dynamic Visualisation for Better Understanding of Chemistry in Primary School

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herga, Nataša Rizman; Cagran, Branka; Dinevski, Dejan

    2016-01-01

    Understanding chemistry includes the ability to think on three levels: the macroscopic level, the symbolic level, and the level of particles--sub-microscopic level. Pupils have the most difficulty when trying to understand the sub-microscopic level because it is outside their range of experience. A virtual laboratory enables a simultaneous…

  1. Understanding of amount and dynamics of radioactive cesium deposited on trees in Fukushima

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Endo, Izuki; Ohte, Nobuhito; Iseda, Kohei; Tanoi, Keitaro; Hirose, Atsushi; Kobayashi, Natsuko I. [The University of Tokyo, 113-8657, 1-1-1 Yayoi Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo (Japan); Ishii, Nobuyoshi [National Institute of Radiological Sciences, 263-8555, 4-9-1 Anagawa, Inage-ku, Chiba-shi, Chiba (Japan); Ohashi, Mizue [University of Hyogo, 670-0092, 1-1-12 Shinzaike-Honcho, Himeji, Hyogo (Japan)

    2014-07-01

    The accident of Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant after the earthquake and Tsunami in March 11, 2011 caused large amount of radioactive cesium ({sup 134}Cs, {sup 137}Cs) deposition onto the forest in the surrounding areas. River water from the forest area is used for food production and also for drinking water in these regions. In order to predict how radioactive Cs diffuse and discharge from the forest catchments, it is important to understand the amount and dynamics of radioactive Cs deposited on the trees. In this report, we show our preliminary results of {sup 137}Cs deposition in forest. Study was conducted in the forest at the upstream of Kami-Oguni River catchment, northern part of Fukushima Prefecture. Three plots (2 deciduous stands and 1 Japanese cedar (Cryptomeria japonica) plantation) were set in the forest. Quercus serrata and C. japonica, a representative of deciduous and evergreen tree species in this region, were chosen from each plot. Sample trees were logged in October 2012. Stem samples were collected every 2 m from above the ground to tree top and separated into bark, sapwood and heartwood. Litter traps were set in each plot and collected every month. Leaf litter was classified among species. Also, soil samples were collected in the cylinder of 5 cm in diameter and maximum 30 cm in depth from the forest floor every month. {sup 137}Cs concentration of all samples were measured by germanium semiconductor detector or NaI(Tl) scintillation counter. Deposited {sup 137}Cs was attached strongly on the bark of Q. serrata at high concentration (9-18 kBq/kg) but there were no clear relationship with tree height. In C. japonica, {sup 137}Cs concentration was about half times lower than that of Q. serrata at 0-10 m part of the tree. {sup 137}Cs concentration in wood of C. japonica was higher than Q. serrata. {sup 137}Cs concentration of sapwood was as high as that of heartwood in C. japonica, but in Q. serrata, {sup 137}Cs concentration in sapwood was

  2. Seasonal climate manipulations have only minor effects on litter decomposition rates and N dynamics but strong effects on litter P dynamics of sub-arctic bog species.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aerts, R.; Callaghan, T.V.; Dorrepaal, E.; van Logtestijn, R.S.P; Cornelissen, J.H.C.

    2012-01-01

    Litter decomposition and nutrient mineralization in high-latitude peatlands are constrained by low temperatures. So far, little is known about the effects of seasonal components of climate change (higher spring and summer temperatures, more snow which leads to higher winter soil temperatures) on

  3. Understanding the assistance dynamic of the psychiatric emergency service using the fourth generation assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aline Aparecida Buriola

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available A study to comprehend the requests, concerns, and questions of professionals about the assistance dynamic of a psychiatric emergency service. We conducted a case study, using the Fourth Generation assessment method, with 15 participants. We collected data using documental analysis, semi-structured interview and observation and, we used the constant comparative method for analysis. Therefore, two thematic axes arose: a Comprehending the assistance dynamic of the Psychiatric emergency service and, b The disarticulation of the psychosocial attention network as a barrier to satisfaction with the assistance in the psychiatric emergency. We considered that the assistance dynamic in the Psychiatric Emergency extrapolated the simple, unique character of stabilizing patients with acute mental disorders, once it directs the user’s flow to the adequate treatment in the psychosocial attention network.

  4. Forage fish quality: seasonal lipid dynamics of herring (Clupea harengus L.) and sprat (Sprattus sprattus L.) in the Baltic Sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Røjbek, Maria; Tomkiewicz, Jonna; Jacobsen, Charlotte

    2013-01-01

    This study investigates lipid content and fatty acid composition of two important forage fish, sprat (Sprattus sprattus) and herring (Clupea harengus) in the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Seasonal variation in lipids was studied during three periods following the annual reproductive cycle considering...... potential differences relating to fish size, sex, and reproductive status. The isopod Saduria entomon, being at times an important prey for predatory fish, was included for comparison. In both sprat and herring, lipid content and absolute contents of essential polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) varied...... seasonally with high levelstowards the end of the annual zooplankton production cycle, succeeded by a decline. Lipid content and fatty acid composition differed significantly between sprat and herring. Sprat lipid content was higher than herring, increasing with fish size and characterized by large...

  5. Seasonal dynamics of electrical impedance parameters in shoots and leaves related to rooting ability of olive (Olea europea) cuttings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mancuso, Stefano

    1999-02-01

    Electrical impedance parameters were measured in shoots and leaves of Olea europaea L. for 18 months to determine seasonal variations in intracellular and extracellular resistances and in the state of membranes; these factors were related to rooting ability. Double- and single-DCE (ZARC) models were used as equivalent circuits for shoots and leaves, respectively. Seasonal variations were observed in all of the impedance parameters measured. Intracellular resistance of the shoots increased during the winter resting period, whereas intracellular resistance of the leaves decreased. Relaxation times for both leaves and shoots decreased during the winter. Close relationships were found between rooting ability and intracellular and extracellular resistances and relaxation times of shoots and leaves.

  6. Seasonal dynamics of trace elements in tidal salt marsh soils as affected by the flow-sediment regulation regime.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junhong Bai

    Full Text Available Soil profiles were collected in three salt marshes with different plant species (i.e. Phragmites australis, Tamarix chinensis and Suaeda salsa in the Yellow River Delta (YRD of China during three seasons (summer and fall of 2007 and the following spring of 2008 after the flow-sediment regulation regime. Total elemental contents of As, Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn were determined using inductively coupled plasma atomic absorption spectrometry to investigate temporal variations in trace elements in soil profiles of the three salt marshes, assess the enrichment levels and ecological risks of these trace elements in three sampling seasons and identify their influencing factors. Trace elements did not change significantly along soil profiles at each site in each sampling season. The highest value for each sampling site was observed in summer and the lowest one in fall. Soils in both P. australis and S. salsa wetlands tended to have higher trace element levels than those in T. chinensis wetland. Compared to other elements, both Cd and As had higher enrichment factors exceeding moderate enrichment levels. However, the toxic unit (TU values of these trace elements did not exceed probable effect levels. Correlation analysis showed that these trace elements were closely linked to soil properties such as moisture, sulfur, salinity, soil organic matter, soil texture and pH values. Principal component analysis showed that the sampling season affected by the flow-sediment regulation regime was the dominant factor influencing the distribution patterns of these trace elements in soils, and plant community type was another important factor. The findings of this study could contribute to wetland conservation and management in coastal regions affected by the hydrological engineering.

  7. Multiple Time-Scale Monitoring to Address Dynamic Seasonality and Storm Pulses of Stream Water Quality in Mountainous Watersheds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyun-Ju Lee

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall variability and extreme events can amplify the seasonality and storm pulses of stream water chemistry in mountainous watersheds under monsoon climates. To establish a monitoring program optimized for identifying potential risks to stream water quality arising from rainfall variability and extremes, we examined water chemistry data collected on different timescales. At a small forested watershed, bi-weekly sampling lasted over two years, in comparison to three other biweekly sampling sites. In addition, high-frequency continuous measurements of pH, electrical conductivity, and turbidity were conducted in tandem with automatic water sampling at 2 h intervals during eight rainfall events. Biweekly monitoring showed that during the summer monsoon period, electrical conductivity (EC, dissolved oxygen (DO, and dissolved ion concentrations generally decreased, but total suspended solids (TSS slightly increased. A noticeable variation from the usual seasonal pattern was that DO levels substantially decreased during an extended drought. Bi-hourly storm event samplings exhibited large changes in the concentrations of TSS and particulate and dissolved organic carbon (POC; DOC during intense rainfall events. However, extreme fluctuations in sediment export during discharge peaks could be detected only by turbidity measurements at 5 min intervals. Concomitant measurements during rainfall events established empirical relationships between turbidity and TSS or POC. These results suggest that routine monitoring based on weekly to monthly sampling is valid only in addressing general seasonal patterns or long-lasting phenomena such as drought effects. We propose an “adaptive” monitoring scheme that combines routine monitoring for general seasonal patterns and high-frequency instrumental measurements of water quality components exhibiting rapid responses pulsing during intense rainfall events.

  8. Seasonal and temporal CO2 dynamics in three tropical mangrove creeks - A revision of global mangrove CO2 emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosentreter, Judith A.; Maher, D. T.; Erler, D. V.; Murray, R.; Eyre, B. D.

    2018-02-01

    Continuous high-resolution surface water pCO2 and δ13C-CO2 and 222Rn (dry season only) were measured over two tidal cycles in the wet and dry season in three tropical tidal mangrove creeks on the north-eastern coast of Queensland, Australia. Mangrove surface water pCO2 followed a clear tidal pattern (ranging from 387 to 13,031 μatm) with higher pCO2-values in the wet season than in the dry season. The δ13C-CO2 in the mangrove waters ranged from -21.7 to -8.8‰ and was rather indicative of a mixed source than a distinct mangrove signature. Surface water CO2 was likely driven by a combination of mangrove and external carbon sources, e.g. exchange with groundwater/pore water enriched in 13C, or terrestrial carbon inputs with a significant contribution of C4-vegetation (sugar cane) source. The kinetic and equilibrium fractionation during the gas exchange at the water-atmosphere interface may have further caused a 13C-enrichment of the CO2 pool in the mangrove surface waters. Average CO2 evasion rates (58.7-277.6 mmol m-2 d-1) were calculated using different empirical gas transfer velocity models. Using our high-resolution time series data and previously published data, the average CO2 flux rate in mangrove ecosystems was estimated to be 56.5 ± 8.9 mmol m-2 d-1, which corresponds to a revised global mangrove CO2 emission of 34.1 ± 5.4 Tg C per year.

  9. The Accumulation and Seasonal Dynamic of the Soil Organic Carbon in Wetland of the Yellow River Estuary, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xianxiang Luo

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The wetland of the Yellow River estuary is a typical new coastal wetland in northern China. It is essential to study the carbon pool and its variations for evaluating the carbon cycle process. The study results regarding the temporal-spatial distribution and influential factors of soil organic carbon in four typical wetlands belonging to the Yellow River estuary showed that there was no significant difference in the contents of the surface soil TOC to the same season among the four types of wetlands. For each type of wetlands, the TOC content in surface soils was significantly higher in October than that in both May and August. On the whole, the obvious differences in DOC contents in surface soils were not observed in the different wetland types and seasons. The peak of TOC appeared at 0–10 cm in the soil profiles. The contents of TOC and DOC were significantly higher in salsa than those in reed, suggesting that the rhizosphere effect of organic carbon in salsa was more obvious than that in reed. The results of the principal component analysis showed that the nitrogen content, salinity, bulk density, and water content were dominant influential factors for organic carbon accumulation and seasonal variation.

  10. Proceedings of the Summit on ANSAs: Understanding Strategic Roles and Operational Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-11-01

    TIF) Project entitled “A Conceptual Framework for Understanding Armed Non-state Actors (ANSAs): Strategic Roles and Operational Dynamics”. TIF... performance of these roles. Broadly speaking, we seek to shed some light upon what ANSAs do and why they do it, situating their motivations, intent and...Summit on Armed Non-state Actors (ANSAs): Understanding Strategic Roles and Operational Dynamics”, held at DRDC Toronto, October 26-27, 2010. This

  11. The knowledge dynamics of organizational innovation : understanding the implementation of decision support for planners

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sjarbaini, Vivyane Larissa Ratna Nirma

    2009-01-01

    This thesis argues that a knowledge perspective on organizational innovation provides essential insights. A cognitive-semiotic model on knowledge dynamics is presented and used to perform an empirical study. We seek an answer to the question: What happens to the knowledge of planners during an

  12. Understanding the Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Denitrification in an Oregon Salt Marsh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salt marshes are highly susceptible to a range of climate change effects (e.g., sea-level rise, salinity changes, storm severity, shifts in vegetation across watershed). It is unclear how these effects will alter the spatial and temporal dynamics of denitrification, a potential p...

  13. Understanding the Online Informal Learning of English as a Complex Dynamic System: An Emic Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sockett, Geoffrey

    2013-01-01

    Research into the online informal learning of English has already shown it to be a widespread phenomenon involving a range of comprehension and production activities such as viewing original version television series, listening to music on demand and social networking with other English users. Dynamic systems theory provides a suitable framework…

  14. Contemporary Leadership Theories. Enhancing the Understanding of the Complexity, Subjectivity and Dynamic of Leadership

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Winkler, Ingo

    . Leadership is understood as product of complex social relationships embedded in the logic and dynamic of the social system. The book discusses theoretical approaches from top leadership journals, but also addresses various alternatives that are suitable to challenge mainstream leadership research...

  15. Understanding the Dynamics of Requirements Evolution: A Comparative Case Study of Groupware Implementation.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pumareja, D.T.; Sikkel, Nicolaas; Wieringa, Roelf J.

    This paper presents a conceptual framework that seeks to explain the dynamics of requirements change and evolution. As an initial validation of the framework, it was used to analyze two contrasting cases of groupware implementation. The framework makes a distinction between, on the one hand,

  16. Mean-field modeling approach for understanding epidemic dynamics in interconnected networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu, Guanghu; Fu, Xinchu; Tang, Qinggan; Li, Kezan

    2015-01-01

    Modern systems (e.g., social, communicant, biological networks) are increasingly interconnected each other formed as ‘networks of networks’. Such complex systems usually possess inconsistent topologies and permit agents distributed in different subnetworks to interact directly/indirectly. Corresponding dynamics phenomena, such as the transmission of information, power, computer virus and disease, would exhibit complicated and heterogeneous tempo-spatial patterns. In this paper, we focus on the scenario of epidemic spreading in interconnected networks. We intend to provide a typical mean-field modeling framework to describe the time-evolution dynamics, and offer some mathematical skills to study the spreading threshold and the global stability of the model. Integrating the research with numerical analysis, we are able to quantify the effects of networks structure and epidemiology parameters on the transmission dynamics. Interestingly, we find that the diffusion transition in the whole network is governed by a unique threshold, which mainly depends on the most heterogenous connection patterns of network substructures. Further, the dynamics is highly sensitive to the critical values of cross infectivity with switchable phases.

  17. Understanding hydration of Zn(2+) in hydrothermal fluids with ab initio molecular dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, X.; Lu, X.; Wang, R.; Meijer, E.J.

    2011-01-01

    With ab initio molecular dynamics simulations, the free-energy profiles of hydrated Zn2+ are calculated for both gaseous and aqueous systems from ambient to supercritical conditions, and from the derived free-energy information, the speciation of hydrated Zn2+ has been revealed. It is shown that the

  18. Using Dynamic Geometry Software to Improve Eight Grade Students' Understanding of Transformation Geometry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guven, Bulent

    2012-01-01

    This study examines the effect of dynamic geometry software (DGS) on students' learning of transformation geometry. A pre- and post-test quasi-experimental design was used. Participants in the study were 68 eighth grade students (36 in the experimental group and 32 in the control group). While the experimental group students were studying the…

  19. Understanding the Influence of Organizational Culture and Group Dynamics on Organizational Change and Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucas, Colleen; Kline, Theresa

    2008-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between organizational culture, group dynamics, and organizational learning in the context of organizational change. Design/methodology/approach: A case study was used to examine cultural and group level factors that potentially influence groups' learning in the context of…

  20. Understanding Aggregation and Estimating Seasonal Abundance of Chrysaora quinquecirrha Medusae from a Fixed-station Time Series in the Choptank River, Chesapeake Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tay, J.; Hood, R. R.

    2016-02-01

    Although jellyfish exert strong control over marine plankton dynamics (Richardson et al. 2009, Robison et al. 2014) and negatively impact human commercial and recreational activities (Purcell et al. 2007, Purcell 2012), jellyfish biomass is not well quantified due primarily to sampling difficulties with plankton nets or fisheries trawls (Haddock 2004). As a result, some of the longest records of jellyfish are visual shore-based surveys, such as the fixed-station time series of Chrysaora quinquecirrha that began in 1960 in the Patuxent River in Chesapeake Bay, USA (Cargo and King 1990). Time series counts from fixed-station surveys capture two signals: 1) demographic change at timescales on the order of reproductive processes and 2) spatial patchiness at shorter timescales as different parcels of water move in and out of the survey area by tidal and estuarine advection and turbulent mixing (Lee and McAlice 1979). In this study, our goal was to separate these two signals using a 4-year time series of C. quinquecirrha medusa counts from a fixed-station in the Choptank River, Chesapeake Bay. Idealized modeling of tidal and estuarine advection was used to conceptualize the sampling scheme. Change point and time series analysis was used to detect demographic changes. Indices of aggregation (Negative Binomial coefficient, Taylor's Power Law coefficient, and Morisita's Index) were calculated to describe the spatial patchiness of the medusae. Abundance estimates revealed a bloom cycle that differed in duration and magnitude for each of the study years. Indices of aggregation indicated that medusae were aggregated and that patches grew in the number of individuals, and likely in size, as abundance increased. Further inference from the conceptual modeling suggested that medusae patch structure was generally homogenous over the tidal extent. This study highlights the benefits of using fixed-station shore-based surveys for understanding the biology and ecology of jellyfish.

  1. The dynamic warm pool: A new paradigm for understanding the role of the tropics in the global heat balance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webster, P. J.; Hoyos, C. D.

    2008-12-01

    The region of atmospheric heating in the tropics, here termed the dynamic warm pool, represents the "boiler box" of the planetary heat engine and plays a determining role in global climate and tropical weather variability, modulating the genesis and intensification of tropical cyclones, the ascending branches of the Walker and Hadley circulations, monsoons and ENSO variability, and the nature of global teleconnections emanating from the tropics. Hence, it is important to understand how the tropical warm pool has changed in the past and how it may change in the future, and how these changes may alter climate both regionally and globally. The concept of the dynamic warm pool, which encloses the region of net atmospheric convective heating in the tropics, is fundamentally different to the traditionally defined oceanic warm pool corresponding to the area occupied by sea surface temperatures above a pre-defined threshold, typically 28C. While the traditionally defined warm pool has expanded as a result of global warming, the dynamical warm pool has remained constant as a result of an increasing column integrated heating-sea surface temperature threshold. In other words, in a warming climate the convective area does not expand with the area of SST>28C. However, despite the near constancy of the dynamic warm pool area, the magnitude of the column integrated heating in the tropics increases substantially. In light of these results, the traditional warm pool definition and the thresholds for convection and cyclogenesis are not climatically meaningful and lack a physical basis. Rather than a static definition set by a constant temperature, the climatically active warm pool should be defined dynamically by the large-scale coupled ocean-atmosphere system rather than just by the temperature of the ocean surface. In this work we use the concept of the dynamical warm pool as a physical basis to explore and understand long-term variability of tropical cyclogenesis and

  2. Seasonal dynamics of adjoining tidal coastal inlet on east coast of India ­measurements and modelling

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Jayakumar, S.; Reddy, N.A.; Ramanamurty, M.V.; ManiMurali, R.; ArunaKumar, A.; Rao, S.

    of these two inlets is carried out using satellite images and GIS. Field investigations are carried out on the hydrodynamics inside the inlet comprising of water level variations and flow dynamics. Nearshore wave information is obtained by transforming...

  3. Contribution of local knowledge to understand socio-hydrological dynamics. Examples from a study in Senegal river valley

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruckmann, Laurent

    2017-04-01

    In developing countries many watersheds are low monitored. However, rivers and its floodplains provides ecosystem services to societies, especially for agriculture, grazing and fishing. This uses of rivers and floodplains offer to communities an important local knowledge about hydrological dynamics. This knowledge can be useful to researchers studying ecological or hydrological processes. This presentation aims to discuss and present the interest of using qualitative data from surveys and interviews to understand relations between society and hydrology in floodplain from developing countries, but also to understand changes in hydrological dynamics. This communication is based on a PhD thesis held on from 2012 and 2016, that analyzes socio-ecological changes in the floodplain of the Senegal river floodplain following thirty years of transboundary water management. The results of this work along Senegal river valley suggest that the use of social data and qualitative study are beneficial in understanding the hydrological dynamics in two dimensions. First, it established the importance of perception of hydrological dynamics, particularly floods, on local water management and socio-agricultural trajectories. This perception of people is strictly derived from ecosystems services provided by river and its floodplain. Second, surveys have enlightened new questions concerning the hydrology of the river that are often cited by people, like a decrease of flood water fertility. This type of socio-hydrological study, combining hydrological and qualitative data, has great potential for guiding water management policies. Using local knowledge in their analyzes, researchers also legitimize river users, who are for the most part forgotten by water policies.

  4. Report of the Defense Science Board Task Force on Understanding Human Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-03-01

    I T I ONS OF CUL T URE I 75 culture is individualistic if each person is expected to look after him or herself and collectivistic if there...country, region, or culture. With respect to human dynamics, these documents should include perspectives of factions (tribes, clans, villages), fears...military and technology studies, Iraqi and terrorist perspectives , religious and ideological studies, and new disciplines in social sciences. Commercial

  5. Seasonal dynamics of particulate organic matter in the Changjiang Estuary and adjacent coastal waters illustrated by amino acid enantiomers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Ying; Liu, Zongguang; Hu, Jun; Zhu, Zhuoyi; Liu, Sumei; Zhang, Jing

    2016-02-01

    Total suspended matter (TSM) was collected in the Changjiang Estuary and adjacent areas of the East China Sea in July, August, and November 2011, to study the composition and fate of particulate organic nitrogen (PON) during an August typhoon event and bottom trawling activities. Concentrations of particulate organic carbon (POC), particulate nitrogen (PN), and hydrolyzable particulate amino acids (PAA, D- and L-enantiomers) were higher during July and August than during November; however, D-arginine and alanine levels were significantly higher in November. Seasonal trends in the composition of PAAs indicate that in situ production is a key factor in their temporal distribution. No significant increase in TSM or decrease in labile organic matter was observed during the transit period following a typhoon event in August. In contrast, higher primary production was observed at this time as a result of the penetration of Changjiang Diluted Water caused by the typhoon event. Trawling effects were studied by comparing the calm season (July) with the bottom-trawling period (November) at similar sampling sites. The effect of trawling on the composition of bottom organic matter was studied by comparing D-amino acids concentrations and C/N ratios in the calm season (July) with the bottom-trawling period (November). A substantial contribution of microbial organic matter during the November cruise was indicated by a decrease in glutamic acid, an increase in TSM and D-alanine, and a lower carbon/nitrogen (C/N) ratio. In shallow coastal regions, anthropogenic activities (bottom trawling) may enhance the transfer of low-nutritional-value particulate organic matter into the benthic food chain.

  6. Understanding the free energy barrier and multiple timescale dynamics of charge separation in organic photovoltaic cells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Yaming; Song, Linze; Shi, Qiang

    2018-02-01

    By employing several lattice model systems, we investigate the free energy barrier and real-time dynamics of charge separation in organic photovoltaic (OPV) cells. It is found that the combined effects of the external electric field, entropy, and charge delocalization reduce the free energy barrier significantly. The dynamic disorder reduces charge carrier delocalization and results in the increased charge separation barrier, while the effect of static disorder is more complicated. Simulation of the real-time dynamics indicates that the free charge generation process involves multiple time scales, including an ultrafast component within hundreds of femtoseconds, an intermediate component related to the relaxation of the hot charge transfer (CT) state, and a slow component on the time scale of tens of picoseconds from the thermally equilibrated CT state. Effects of hot exciton dissociation as well as its dependence on the energy offset between the Frenkel exciton and the CT state are also analyzed. The current results indicate that only a small energy offset between the band gap and the lowest energy CT state is needed to achieve efficient free charge generation in OPV devices, which agrees with recent experimental findings.

  7. Understanding the free energy barrier and multiple timescale dynamics of charge separation in organic photovoltaic cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Yaming; Song, Linze; Shi, Qiang

    2018-02-28

    By employing several lattice model systems, we investigate the free energy barrier and real-time dynamics of charge separation in organic photovoltaic (OPV) cells. It is found that the combined effects of the external electric field, entropy, and charge delocalization reduce the free energy barrier significantly. The dynamic disorder reduces charge carrier delocalization and results in the increased charge separation barrier, while the effect of static disorder is more complicated. Simulation of the real-time dynamics indicates that the free charge generation process involves multiple time scales, including an ultrafast component within hundreds of femtoseconds, an intermediate component related to the relaxation of the hot charge transfer (CT) state, and a slow component on the time scale of tens of picoseconds from the thermally equilibrated CT state. Effects of hot exciton dissociation as well as its dependence on the energy offset between the Frenkel exciton and the CT state are also analyzed. The current results indicate that only a small energy offset between the band gap and the lowest energy CT state is needed to achieve efficient free charge generation in OPV devices, which agrees with recent experimental findings.

  8. Understanding global nutrition dynamics as a step towards controlling cancer incidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Popkin, Barry M

    2007-01-01

    As we look to understand future forces that will affect cancer risk, poor dietary patterns, overweight and obesity are significant concerns. In the past two decades these factors have shifted from issues that face higher-income countries to a global pandemic, and are rapidly becoming less a problem of affluence and more a problem of poverty. Rapid shifts in food systems, food pricing and marketing are the causes that underlie this trend. It is imperative to understand these factors and implement global interventions to slow this pandemic. The alternative is an acceleration of the incidence of the main nutrition-related cancers, primarily in developing countries.

  9. The influence of biogeochemical processes on the pH dynamics in the seasonally hypoxic saline Lake Grevelingen, The Netherlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagens, Mathilde; Slomp, Caroline; Meysman, Filip; Borges, Alberto; Middelburg, Jack

    2013-04-01

    Coastal areas experience more pronounced short-term fluctuations in pH than the open ocean due to higher rates of biogeochemical processes such as primary production, respiration and nitrification. These processes and changes therein can mask or amplify the ocean acidification signal induced by increasing atmospheric pCO2. Coastal acidification can be enhanced when eutrophication-induced hypoxia develops. This is because the carbon dioxide produced during respiration leads to a decrease in the buffering capacity of the hypoxic bottom water. Saline Lake Grevelingen (SW Netherlands) has limited water exchange with the North Sea and experiences seasonal bottom water hypoxia, which differs in severity interannually. Hence this lake provides an ideal site to study how coastal acidification is affected by seasonal hypoxia. We examined the annual cycle of the carbonate system in Lake Grevelingen in 2012 and how biogeochemical processes in the water column impact it. Monthly measurements of all carbonate system parameters (DIC, pH, fCO2 and TA), suspended matter, oxygen and nutrients were accompanied by measurements of primary production and respiration using O2 light-dark incubations. Primary production was also estimated every season using 14C-incubations and monthly via 13C-labeling of phospholipid-derive