WorldWideScience

Sample records for understand quantitative risk

  1. Understanding Pre-Quantitative Risk in Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Lynne P.

    2011-01-01

    Standard approaches to risk management in projects depend on the ability of teams to identify risks and quantify the probabilities and consequences of these risks (e.g., the 5 x 5 risk matrix). However, long before quantification does - or even can - occur, and long after, teams make decisions based on their pre-quantitative understanding of risk. These decisions can have long-lasting impacts on the project. While significant research has looked at the process of how to quantify risk, our understanding of how teams conceive of and manage pre-quantitative risk is lacking. This paper introduces the concept of pre-quantitative risk and discusses the implications of addressing pre-quantitative risk in projects.

  2. Supplementing quantitative risk assessments with a stage addressing the risk understanding of the decision maker

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, Terje

    2016-01-01

    A quantitative probabilistic risk assessment produces a conditional risk description given the knowledge of the analysts (formulated to a large extent through assumptions). However, important aspects of the risk may be concealed in the background knowledge of the analyst and the assumptions. This paper discusses this issue, the main purpose being to present a two-stage risk assessment approach where the second stage addresses the risk understanding of the decision maker. This second-stage is to a large extent qualitative. The approach is novel with its separation between the analysts' conditional risk descriptions using probability judgments, and the decision maker's risk understanding. The approach aims at improving the use of risk assessment in practical decision making by ensuring that the results of the risk assessments are properly interpreted and the key aspects of risk, uncertainty and knowledge are brought to attention for the decision makers. Examples are used to illustrate the approach. - Highlights: • A quantitative risk assessment produces a conditional risk description. • The decision maker (DM) needs to address risk beyond this description. • The paper presents a related two-stage process, covering analyst and DM judgments. • The second stage relates to the DM's risk understanding. • Strength of knowledge judgments are included in both stages.

  3. Understanding quantitative research: part 1.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoe, Juanita; Hoare, Zoë

    This article, which is the first in a two-part series, provides an introduction to understanding quantitative research, basic statistics and terminology used in research articles. Critical appraisal of research articles is essential to ensure that nurses remain up to date with evidence-based practice to provide consistent and high-quality nursing care. This article focuses on developing critical appraisal skills and understanding the use and implications of different quantitative approaches to research. Part two of this article will focus on explaining common statistical terms and the presentation of statistical data in quantitative research.

  4. The effects of infographics and several quantitative versus qualitative formats for cardiovascular disease risk, including heart age, on people's risk understanding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damman, Olga C; Vonk, Suzanne I; van den Haak, Maaike J; van Hooijdonk, Charlotte M J; Timmermans, Danielle R M

    2018-03-11

    To study how comprehension of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk is influenced by: (1) infographics about qualitative risk information, with/without risk numbers; (2) which qualitative risk dimension is emphasized; (3) heart age vs. traditional risk format. For aim 1, a 2 (infographics versus text) x 2 (risk number versus no risk number) between-subjects design was used. For aim 2, three pieces of information were tested within-subjects. Aim 3 used a simple comparison group. Participants (45-65 yrs old) were recruited through an online access panel; low educated people were oversampled. They received hypothetical risk information (20%/61yrs). Primary outcomes: recall, risk appraisals, subjective/objective risk comprehension. behavioral intentions, information evaluations. Infographics of qualitative risk dimensions negatively affected recall, subjective risk comprehension and information evaluations. No effect of type of risk dimension was found on risk perception. Heart age influenced recall, comprehension, evaluations and affective risk appraisals. Infographics of hypothetical CVD risk information had detrimental effects on measures related to risk perception/comprehension, but effects were mainly seen in undereducated participants. Heart age influenced perceptions/comprehension of hypothetical risk in a way that seemed to support understanding. Heart age seems a fruitful risk communication approach in disease risk calculators. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Innovations in Quantitative Risk Management

    CERN Document Server

    Scherer, Matthias; Zagst, Rudi

    2015-01-01

    Quantitative models are omnipresent –but often controversially discussed– in todays risk management practice. New regulations, innovative financial products, and advances in valuation techniques provide a continuous flow of challenging problems for financial engineers and risk managers alike. Designing a sound stochastic model requires finding a careful balance between parsimonious model assumptions, mathematical viability, and interpretability of the output. Moreover, data requirements and the end-user training are to be considered as well. The KPMG Center of Excellence in Risk Management conference Risk Management Reloaded and this proceedings volume contribute to bridging the gap between academia –providing methodological advances– and practice –having a firm understanding of the economic conditions in which a given model is used. Discussed fields of application range from asset management, credit risk, and energy to risk management issues in insurance. Methodologically, dependence modeling...

  6. Deterministic quantitative risk assessment development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dawson, Jane; Colquhoun, Iain [PII Pipeline Solutions Business of GE Oil and Gas, Cramlington Northumberland (United Kingdom)

    2009-07-01

    Current risk assessment practice in pipeline integrity management is to use a semi-quantitative index-based or model based methodology. This approach has been found to be very flexible and provide useful results for identifying high risk areas and for prioritizing physical integrity assessments. However, as pipeline operators progressively adopt an operating strategy of continual risk reduction with a view to minimizing total expenditures within safety, environmental, and reliability constraints, the need for quantitative assessments of risk levels is becoming evident. Whereas reliability based quantitative risk assessments can be and are routinely carried out on a site-specific basis, they require significant amounts of quantitative data for the results to be meaningful. This need for detailed and reliable data tends to make these methods unwieldy for system-wide risk k assessment applications. This paper describes methods for estimating risk quantitatively through the calibration of semi-quantitative estimates to failure rates for peer pipeline systems. The methods involve the analysis of the failure rate distribution, and techniques for mapping the rate to the distribution of likelihoods available from currently available semi-quantitative programs. By applying point value probabilities to the failure rates, deterministic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides greater rigor and objectivity than can usually be achieved through the implementation of semi-quantitative risk assessment results. The method permits a fully quantitative approach or a mixture of QRA and semi-QRA to suit the operator's data availability and quality, and analysis needs. For example, consequence analysis can be quantitative or can address qualitative ranges for consequence categories. Likewise, failure likelihoods can be output as classical probabilities or as expected failure frequencies as required. (author)

  7. The effects of infographics and several quantitative versus qualitative formats for cardiovascular disease risk, including heart age, on people's risk understanding.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Damman, Olga C; Vonk, Suzanne I; Van den Haak, Maaike J; van Hooijdonk, Charlotte M J; Timmermans, Danielle R M

    2018-01-01

    To study how comprehension of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk is influenced by: (1) infographics about qualitative risk information, with/without risk numbers; (2) which qualitative risk dimension is emphasized; (3) heart age vs. traditional risk format.

  8. Are risks quantitatively determinable

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buetzer, P.

    1985-01-01

    ''Chemical risks'' can only be determined with accurate figures in a few extraordinary cases. The difficulties lie, as has been shown by the example of the Flixborough catastrophe, mostly in the determination of the probabilities of occurrence. With a rough semiquantitative estimate of the potential hazards and the corresponding probabilities we can predict the risks with astonishing accuracy. Statistical data from incidents in the chemical industry are very useful, and they also show that ''chemical catastrophes'' are only to a very small extent initiated by uncontrolled chemical reactions. (orig.) [de

  9. Challenges in Risk Assessment: Quantitative Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke; De Meulenaer, Bruno

    2016-01-01

    The process of risk analysis consists out of three components, risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. These components are internationally well spread by Codex Alimentarius Commission as being the basis for setting science based standards, criteria on food safety hazards, e.g. setting maximum limits of mycotoxins in foodstuffs. However, the technical component risk assessment is hard to elaborate and to understand. Key in a risk assessment is the translation of biological or...

  10. Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Tan, Zhibin (Inventor)

    2001-01-01

    A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

  11. Quantitative risk in radiation protection standards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bond, V.P.

    1979-01-01

    Although the overall aim of radiobiology is to understand the biological effects of radiation, it also has the implied practical purpose of developing rational measures for the control of radiation exposure in man. The emphasis in this presentation is to show that the enormous effort expended over the years to develop quantitative dose-effect relationships in biochemical and cellular systems, animals, and human beings now seems to be paying off. The pieces appear to be falling into place, and a framework is evolving to utilize these data. Specifically, quantitative risk assessments will be discussed in terms of the cellular, animal, and human data on which they are based; their use in the development of radiation protection standards; and their present and potential impact and meaning in relation to the quantity dose equivalent and its special unit, the rem

  12. Quantitative Identification of Construction Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Kasprowicz T.

    2017-01-01

    Risks pertaining to construction work relate to situations in which various events may randomly change the duration and cost of the project or worsen its quality. Because of possible significant changes of random events, favorable, moderate, and difficult conditions of construction work are considered. It is the first stage of the construction risk analysis. The probabilistic parameters of construction are identified and described by using the design characteristics model of the structure and...

  13. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Tutorial - Primer

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document provides a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) primer that organizes QMRA tutorials. The tutorials describe functionality of a QMRA infrastructure, guide the user through software use and assessment options, provide step-by-step instructions for implementi...

  14. Facilitating Shared Understandings of Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mitchell, Robb

    This thesis contributes an identification of a key mechanism and its constituent qualities, for facilitating shared understandings of risk. Globalisation and the pace of technological change increases the uncertainties of decision making within many design and innovation practices. Accordingly......, the focus of participatory workshops has expanded towards addressing broader questions of strategy, business models and other organizational and inter-organisational issues. To develop effective partnerships across the boundaries separating companies, I argue that is necessary for those involved to gain...... or proxy for absent others, 4) an incomplete comic with which children could contribute sketched ideas to a design process 5) a table top tool kits for discussing business relationship issues and 5) a number of bespoke interactive sculpture-like artifacts for provoking insights concerning business dilemmas...

  15. What is a risk. [Quantitative risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoen, G [Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt, Braunschweig (Germany, F.R.)

    1979-02-01

    The following article is a revised version of a lecture given by the author during the VDE meeting 'Technical Expert Activities' in Brunswick. First of all, the concept of 'risk' is discussed which leads to a probability scale which then permits a definition of the 'justifiable risk' as the boundary between 'hazard' and 'safety'. The boundary is quantified indirectly from laws, regulations, instructions, etc. to the 'Technological rules' for special fields of application by minimum requirement data. These viewpoints described in detail are not only of substantial significance for the creation of safety regulations but also for their application and consequently for jurisdiction.

  16. Understand Your Risk for Heart Failure

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Heart.org Arrhythmia About Arrhythmia Why Arrhythmia Matters Understand Your Risk for Arrhythmia Symptoms, Diagnosis & Monitoring of ... Heart Defects The Impact of Congenital Heart Defects Understand Your Risk for Congenital Heart Defects Symptoms & Diagnosis ...

  17. Development of a quantitative risk standard

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Temme, M.I.

    1982-01-01

    IEEE Working Group SC-5.4 is developing a quantitative risk standard for LWR plant design and operation. The paper describes the Working Group's conclusions on significant issues, including the scope of the standard, the need to define the process (i.e., PRA calculation) for meeting risk criteria, the need for PRA quality requirements and the importance of distinguishing standards from goals. The paper also describes the Working Group's approach to writing this standard

  18. Understanding and managing risk attitude

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hillson, David; Murray-Webster, Ruth

    2007-01-01

    ... This book highlights how risk attitude factors influence the human psyche, and carefully explains the impacts. Organisations seeking to dramatically improve the effectiveness of their risk management process will want to use this book's insights. Craig Peterson, President, PMI Risk Management SIG This book has prompted me to think more deeply as a change d...

  19. Quantitative influence of risk factors on blood glucose level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Songjing; Luo, Senlin; Pan, Limin; Zhang, Tiemei; Han, Longfei; Zhao, Haixiu

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study is to quantitatively analyze the influence of risk factors on the blood glucose level, and to provide theory basis for understanding the characteristics of blood glucose change and confirming the intervention index for type 2 diabetes. The quantitative method is proposed to analyze the influence of risk factors on blood glucose using back propagation (BP) neural network. Ten risk factors are screened first. Then the cohort is divided into nine groups by gender and age. According to the minimum error principle, nine BP models are trained respectively. The quantitative values of the influence of different risk factors on the blood glucose change can be obtained by sensitivity calculation. The experiment results indicate that weight is the leading cause of blood glucose change (0.2449). The second factors are cholesterol, age and triglyceride. The total ratio of these four factors reaches to 77% of the nine screened risk factors. And the sensitivity sequences can provide judgment method for individual intervention. This method can be applied to risk factors quantitative analysis of other diseases and potentially used for clinical practitioners to identify high risk populations for type 2 diabetes as well as other disease.

  20. Understand Your Risk for Arrhythmia

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... is likely monitoring your heart rhythm with regular EKGs ( electrocardiograms ). But arrhythmias that occur infrequently may not ... patient sheets Popular Articles 1 Understanding Blood Pressure Readings 2 Sodium and Salt 3 Heart Attack Symptoms ...

  1. Understanding your colon cancer risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... for women and 2 drinks per day for men DO NOT smoke You can also have genetic testing done to assess your risk for colon cancer. If you have a strong family history of the disease, talk with your ...

  2. Risk management and analysis: risk assessment (qualitative and quantitative)

    OpenAIRE

    Valentin Mazareanu

    2007-01-01

    We use to define risk as the possibility of suffering a loss. Starting this, risk management is defined as a business process whose purpose is to ensure that the organization is protected against risks and their effects. In order to prioritize, to develop a response plan and after that to monitor the identified risks we need to asses them. But at this point a question is born: should I choose a qualitative approach or a quantitative one? This paper will make a short overview over the risk eva...

  3. Quantitative Risk Assessment of Contact Sensitization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Api, Anne Marie; Belsito, Donald; Bickers, David

    2010-01-01

    Background: Contact hypersensitivity quantitative risk assessment (QRA) for fragrance ingredients is being used to establish new international standards for all fragrance ingredients that are potential skin sensitizers. Objective: The objective was to evaluate the retrospective clinical data...... as potential sensitizers. Methods: This article reviews clinical data for three fragrance ingredients cinnamic aldehyde, citral, and isoeugenol to assess the utility of the QRA approach for fragrance ingredients. Results: This assessment suggests that had the QRA approach been available at the time standards...

  4. Quantitative risk in radiation protection standards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bond, V.P.

    1978-01-01

    The bases for developing quantitative assessment of exposure risks in the human being, and the several problems that accompany the assessment and introduction of the risk of exposure to high and low LET radiation into radiation protection, will be evaluated. The extension of the pioneering radiation protection philosophies to the control of other hazardous agents that cannot be eliminated from the environment will be discussed, as will the serious misunderstandings and misuse of concepts and facts that have inevitably surrounded the application to one agent alone, of the protection philosophy that must in time be applied to a broad spectrum of potentially hazardous agents. (orig.) [de

  5. Understanding your prostate cancer risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... proven. Experts are still looking at things like diet, obesity, smoking, and other factors to see how they may affect your risk. As with many health conditions, staying healthy ... low-fat diet with plenty of vegetables and fruits. Maintain a ...

  6. Expert judgement models in quantitative risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosqvist, T. [VTT Automation, Helsinki (Finland); Tuominen, R. [VTT Automation, Tampere (Finland)

    1999-12-01

    Expert judgement is a valuable source of information in risk management. Especially, risk-based decision making relies significantly on quantitative risk assessment, which requires numerical data describing the initiator event frequencies and conditional probabilities in the risk model. This data is seldom found in databases and has to be elicited from qualified experts. In this report, we discuss some modelling approaches to expert judgement in risk modelling. A classical and a Bayesian expert model is presented and applied to real case expert judgement data. The cornerstone in the models is the log-normal distribution, which is argued to be a satisfactory choice for modelling degree-of-belief type probability distributions with respect to the unknown parameters in a risk model. Expert judgements are qualified according to bias, dispersion, and dependency, which are treated differently in the classical and Bayesian approaches. The differences are pointed out and related to the application task. Differences in the results obtained from the different approaches, as applied to real case expert judgement data, are discussed. Also, the role of a degree-of-belief type probability in risk decision making is discussed.

  7. Expert judgement models in quantitative risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosqvist, T.; Tuominen, R.

    1999-01-01

    Expert judgement is a valuable source of information in risk management. Especially, risk-based decision making relies significantly on quantitative risk assessment, which requires numerical data describing the initiator event frequencies and conditional probabilities in the risk model. This data is seldom found in databases and has to be elicited from qualified experts. In this report, we discuss some modelling approaches to expert judgement in risk modelling. A classical and a Bayesian expert model is presented and applied to real case expert judgement data. The cornerstone in the models is the log-normal distribution, which is argued to be a satisfactory choice for modelling degree-of-belief type probability distributions with respect to the unknown parameters in a risk model. Expert judgements are qualified according to bias, dispersion, and dependency, which are treated differently in the classical and Bayesian approaches. The differences are pointed out and related to the application task. Differences in the results obtained from the different approaches, as applied to real case expert judgement data, are discussed. Also, the role of a degree-of-belief type probability in risk decision making is discussed

  8. The Pesticide Risk Beliefs Inventory: A Quantitative Instrument for the Assessment of Beliefs about Pesticide Risks

    OpenAIRE

    LePrevost, Catherine E.; Blanchard, Margaret R.; Cope, W. Gregory

    2011-01-01

    Recent media attention has focused on the risks that agricultural pesticides pose to the environment and human health; thus, these topics provide focal areas for scientists and science educators to enhance public understanding of basic toxicology concepts. This study details the development of a quantitative inventory to gauge pesticide risk beliefs. The goal of the inventory was to characterize misconceptions and knowledge gaps, as well as expert-like beliefs, concerning pesticide risk. This...

  9. Investment appraisal using quantitative risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johansson, Henrik

    2002-07-01

    Investment appraisal concerned with investments in fire safety systems is discussed. Particular attention is directed at evaluating, in terms of the Bayesian decision theory, the risk reduction that investment in a fire safety system involves. It is shown how the monetary value of the change from a building design without any specific fire protection system to one including such a system can be estimated by use of quantitative risk analysis, the results of which are expressed in terms of a Risk-adjusted net present value. This represents the intrinsic monetary value of investing in the fire safety system. The method suggested is exemplified by a case study performed in an Avesta Sheffield factory.

  10. Quantitative risk assessment of drinking water contaminants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cothern, C.R.; Coniglio, W.A.; Marcus, W.L.

    1986-01-01

    The development of criteria and standards for the regulation of drinking water contaminants involves a variety of processes, one of which is risk estimation. This estimation process, called quantitative risk assessment, involves combining data on the occurrence of the contaminant in drinking water and its toxicity. The human exposure to a contaminant can be estimated from occurrence data. Usually the toxicity or number of health effects per concentration level is estimated from animal bioassay studies using the multistage model. For comparison, other models will be used including the Weibull, probit, logit and quadratic ones. Because exposure and toxicity data are generally incomplete, assumptions need to be made and this generally results in a wide range of certainty in the estimates. This range can be as wide as four to six orders of magnitude in the case of the volatile organic compounds in drinking water and a factor of four to five for estimation of risk due to radionuclides in drinking water. As examples of the differences encountered in risk assessment of drinking water contaminants, discussions are presented on benzene, lead, radon and alachlor. The lifetime population risk estimates for these contaminants are, respectively, in the ranges of: <1 - 3000, <1 - 8000, 2000-40,000 and <1 - 80. 11 references, 1 figure, 1 table

  11. Toward a quantitative understanding of mechanical behavior of nanocrystalline metals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dao, M.; Lu, L.; Asaro, R.J.; Hosson, J.T.M. de; Ma, E.

    2007-01-01

    Focusing on nanocrystalline (nc) pure face-centered cubic metals, where systematic experimental data are available, this paper presents a brief overview of the recent progress made in improving mechanical properties of nc materials, and in quantitatively and mechanistically understanding the underlying mechanisms. The mechanical properties reviewed include strength, ductility, strain rate and temperature dependence, fatigue and tribological properties. The highlighted examples include recent experimental studies in obtaining both high strength and considerable ductility, the compromise between enhanced fatigue limit and reduced crack growth resistance, the stress-assisted dynamic grain growth during deformation, and the relation between rate sensitivity and possible deformation mechanisms. The recent advances in obtaining quantitative and mechanics-based models, developed in line with the related transmission electron microscopy and relevant molecular dynamics observations, are discussed with particular attention to mechanistic models of partial/perfect-dislocation or deformation-twin-mediated deformation processes interacting with grain boundaries, constitutive modeling and simulations of grain size distribution and dynamic grain growth, and physically motivated crystal plasticity modeling of pure Cu with nanoscale growth twins. Sustained research efforts have established a group of nanocrystalline and nanostructured metals that exhibit a combination of high strength and considerable ductility in tension. Accompanying the gradually deepening understanding of the deformation mechanisms and their relative importance, quantitative and mechanisms-based constitutive models that can realistically capture experimentally measured and grain-size-dependent stress-strain behavior, strain-rate sensitivity and even ductility limit are becoming available. Some outstanding issues and future opportunities are listed and discussed

  12. Quantitative risk analysis preoperational of gas pipeline

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Manfredi, Carlos; Bispo, Gustavo G.; Esteves, Alvaro [Gie S.A., Buenos Aires (Argentina)

    2009-07-01

    The purpose of this analysis is to predict how it can be affected the individual risk and the public's general security due to the operation of a gas pipeline. In case that the single or social risks are considered intolerable, compared with the international standards, to be recommended measures of mitigation of the risk associated to the operation until levels that can be considered compatible with the best practices in the industry. The quantitative risk analysis calculates the probability of occurrence of an event based on the frequency of occurrence of the same one and it requires a complex mathematical treatment. The present work has as objective to develop a calculation methodology based on the previously mentioned publication. This calculation methodology is centered in defining the frequencies of occurrence of events, according to representative database of each case in study. Besides, it settles down the consequences particularly according to the considerations of each area and the different possibilities of interferences with the gas pipeline in study. For each one of the interferences a typical curve of ignition probabilities is developed in function from the distance to the pipe. (author)

  13. Quantitative Risk Analysis: Method And Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anass BAYAGA

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Recent and past studies (King III report, 2009: 73-75; Stoney 2007;Committee of Sponsoring Organisation-COSO, 2004, Bartell, 2003; Liebenberg and Hoyt, 2003; Reason, 2000; Markowitz 1957 lament that although, the introduction of quantifying risk to enhance degree of objectivity in finance for instance was quite parallel to its development in the manufacturing industry, it is not the same in Higher Education Institution (HEI. In this regard, the objective of the paper was to demonstrate the methods and process of Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA through likelihood of occurrence of risk (phase I. This paper serves as first of a two-phased study, which sampled hundred (100 risk analysts in a University in the greater Eastern Cape Province of South Africa.The analysis of likelihood of occurrence of risk by logistic regression and percentages were conducted to investigate whether there were a significant difference or not between groups (analyst in respect of QRA.The Hosmer and Lemeshow test was non-significant with a chi-square(X2 =8.181; p = 0.300, which indicated that there was a good model fit, since the data did not significantly deviate from the model. The study concluded that to derive an overall likelihood rating that indicated the probability that a potential risk may be exercised within the construct of an associated threat environment, the following governing factors must be considered: (1 threat source motivation and capability (2 nature of the vulnerability (3 existence and effectiveness of current controls (methods and process.

  14. On the quantitative definition of risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaplan, S.; Garrick, B.J.

    1985-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to provide some suggestions and contributions toward a uniform conceptual/linguistic framework for quantifying and making precise the notion of risk. The concepts and definitions the authors present in this connection have shown themselves to be sturdy and serviceable in practical application to a wide variety of risk situations. They have demonstrated in the courtroom and elsewhere the ability to improve communication and greatly diminish the confusion and controversy that often swirls around public decision making involving risk. They hope therefore with this paper to widen the understanding and adoption of this framework, and to that end adopt a leisurely and tutorial place. In particular, they carefully draw a distinction between ''probability'' and ''frequency.'' Then, using this distinction, they return to the idea of risk, and give a ''second-level'' definition (of risk which generalizes the first-level definition) and is large enough and flexible enough to include at least all the aspects and subtleties of risk that have been encountered in the authors' experience

  15. Risk perception: expert opinion versus public understanding

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, Jennifer

    1987-01-01

    A research project looking at the public's attitudes towards the siting of radioactive waste depositories is reported. The risk perception studies seek to compare expert and lay understanding of risk. Adverse public reactions to risk can only be understood if it is known how people relate to risks in their everyday or working lives. Social trends and experiences are important, for example, the adverse public opinion on the siting of nuclear waste facilities. A number of elements have been identified as common to different risk areas such as chemicals, drugs, food or radioactive waste. These are the clashing of values, polarization of beliefs or clashes of interest. (UK)

  16. Perceptions of risk: understanding cardiovascular disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruth Webster

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Ruth Webster1, Emma Heeley21Cardiovascular Division, 2Neurological and Mental Health Division, The George Institute for International Health, Camperdown, NSW, AustraliaAbstract: Cardiovascular disease (CVD is still the leading cause of death and disability worldwide despite the availability of well-established and effective preventive options. Accurate perception of a patient’s risk by both the patient and the doctors is important as this is one of the components that determine health-related behavior. Doctors tend to not use cardiovascular (CV risk calculators and underestimate the absolute CV risk of their patients. Patients show optimistic bias when considering their own risk and consistently underestimate it. Poor patient health literacy and numeracy must be considered when thinking about this problem. Patients must possess a reasonably high level of understanding of numerical processes when doctors discuss risk, a level that is not possessed by large numbers of the population. In order to overcome this barrier, doctors need to utilize various tools including the appropriate use of visual aids to accurately communicate risk with their patients. Any intervention has been shown to be better than nothing in improving health understanding. The simple process of repeatedly conveying risk information to a patient has been shown to improve accuracy of risk perception. Doctors need to take responsibility for the accurate assessment and effective communication of CV risk in their patients in order to improve patient uptake of cardioprotective lifestyle choices and preventive medications.Keywords: risk perception, cardiovascular disease, cardioprotective lifestyle

  17. Quantitative risk analysis of urban flooding in lowland areas

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ten Veldhuis, J.A.E.

    2010-01-01

    Urban flood risk analyses suffer from a lack of quantitative historical data on flooding incidents. Data collection takes place on an ad hoc basis and is usually restricted to severe events. The resulting data deficiency renders quantitative assessment of urban flood risks uncertain. The study

  18. Incorporating assumption deviation risk in quantitative risk assessments: A semi-quantitative approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khorsandi, Jahon; Aven, Terje

    2017-01-01

    Quantitative risk assessments (QRAs) of complex engineering systems are based on numerous assumptions and expert judgments, as there is limited information available for supporting the analysis. In addition to sensitivity analyses, the concept of assumption deviation risk has been suggested as a means for explicitly considering the risk related to inaccuracies and deviations in the assumptions, which can significantly impact the results of the QRAs. However, challenges remain for its practical implementation, considering the number of assumptions and magnitude of deviations to be considered. This paper presents an approach for integrating an assumption deviation risk analysis as part of QRAs. The approach begins with identifying the safety objectives for which the QRA aims to support, and then identifies critical assumptions with respect to ensuring the objectives are met. Key issues addressed include the deviations required to violate the safety objectives, the uncertainties related to the occurrence of such events, and the strength of knowledge supporting the assessments. Three levels of assumptions are considered, which include assumptions related to the system's structural and operational characteristics, the effectiveness of the established barriers, as well as the consequence analysis process. The approach is illustrated for the case of an offshore installation. - Highlights: • An approach for assessing the risk of deviations in QRA assumptions is presented. • Critical deviations and uncertainties related to their occurrence are addressed. • The analysis promotes critical thinking about the foundation and results of QRAs. • The approach is illustrated for the case of an offshore installation.

  19. Information Risk Management: Qualitative or Quantitative? Cross industry lessons from medical and financial fields

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Upasna Saluja

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Enterprises across the world are taking a hard look at their risk management practices. A number of qualitative and quantitative models and approaches are employed by risk practitioners to keep risk under check. As a norm most organizations end up choosing the more flexible, easier to deploy and customize qualitative models of risk assessment. In practice one sees that such models often call upon the practitioners to make qualitative judgments on a relative rating scale which brings in considerable room for errors, biases and subjectivity. On the other hand under the quantitative risk analysis approach, estimation of risk is connected with application of numerical measures of some kind. Medical risk management models lend themselves as ideal candidates for deriving lessons for Information Security Risk Management. We can use this considerably developed understanding of risk management from the medical field especially Survival Analysis towards handling risks that information infrastructures face. Similarly, financial risk management discipline prides itself on perhaps the most quantifiable of models in risk management. Market Risk and Credit Risk Information Security Risk Management can make risk measurement more objective and quantitative by referring to the approach of Credit Risk. During the recent financial crisis many investors and financial institutions lost money or went bankrupt respectively, because they did not apply the basic principles of risk management. Learning from the financial crisis provides some valuable lessons for information risk management.

  20. Quantitative flood risk assessment for Polders

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Manen, Sipke E. van; Brinkhuis, Martine

    2005-01-01

    In the Netherlands, the design of dikes and other water retaining structures is based on an acceptable probability (frequency) of overtopping. In 1993 a new safety concept was introduced based on total flood risk. Risk was defined as the product of probability and consequences. In recent years advanced tools have become available to calculate the actual flood risk of a polder. This paper describes the application of these tools to an existing lowland river area. The complete chain of calculations necessary to estimate the risk of flooding of a polder (or dike ring) is presented. The difficulties in applying the present day tools and the largest uncertainties in the calculations are shown

  1. Quantitative flood risk assessment for Polders

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Manen, Sipke E. van [Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management, Bouwdienst Rijkswaterstaat, Griffioenlaan 2, Utrecht 3526 (Netherlands)]. E-mail: s.e.vmanen@bwd.rws.minvenw.nl; Brinkhuis, Martine [Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management, Delft (Netherlands)

    2005-12-01

    In the Netherlands, the design of dikes and other water retaining structures is based on an acceptable probability (frequency) of overtopping. In 1993 a new safety concept was introduced based on total flood risk. Risk was defined as the product of probability and consequences. In recent years advanced tools have become available to calculate the actual flood risk of a polder. This paper describes the application of these tools to an existing lowland river area. The complete chain of calculations necessary to estimate the risk of flooding of a polder (or dike ring) is presented. The difficulties in applying the present day tools and the largest uncertainties in the calculations are shown.

  2. Quantitative occupational risk model: Single hazard

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Papazoglou, I.A.; Aneziris, O.N.; Bellamy, L.J.; Ale, B.J.M.; Oh, J.

    2017-01-01

    A model for the quantification of occupational risk of a worker exposed to a single hazard is presented. The model connects the working conditions and worker behaviour to the probability of an accident resulting into one of three types of consequence: recoverable injury, permanent injury and death. Working conditions and safety barriers in place to reduce the likelihood of an accident are included. Logical connections are modelled through an influence diagram. Quantification of the model is based on two sources of information: a) number of accidents observed over a period of time and b) assessment of exposure data of activities and working conditions over the same period of time and the same working population. Effectiveness of risk reducing measures affecting the working conditions, worker behaviour and/or safety barriers can be quantified through the effect of these measures on occupational risk. - Highlights: • Quantification of occupational risk from a single hazard. • Influence diagram connects working conditions, worker behaviour and safety barriers. • Necessary data include the number of accidents and the total exposure of worker • Effectiveness of risk reducing measures is quantified through the impact on the risk • An example illustrates the methodology.

  3. Quantitative Measures of Mineral Supply Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, K. R.

    2009-12-01

    Almost all metals and many non-metallic minerals are traded internationally. An advantage of global mineral markets is that minerals can be obtained from the globally lowest-cost source. For example, one rare-earth element (REE) mine in China, Bayan Obo, is able to supply most of world demand for rare earth elements at a cost significantly less than its main competitors. Concentration of global supplies at a single mine raises significant political risks, illustrated by China’s recent decision to prohibit the export of some REEs and severely limit the export of others. The expected loss of REE supplies will have a significant impact on the cost and production of important national defense technologies and on alternative energy programs. Hybrid vehicles and wind-turbine generators, for example, require REEs for magnets and batteries. Compact fluorescent light bulbs use REE-based phosphors. These recent events raise the general issue of how to measure the degree of supply risk for internationally sourced minerals. Two factors, concentration of supply and political risk, must first be addressed. Concentration of supply can be measured with standard economic tools for measuring industry concentration, using countries rather than firms as the unit of analysis. There are many measures of political risk available. That of the OECD is a measure of a country’s commitment to rule-of-law and enforcement of contracts, as well as political stability. Combining these measures provides a comparative view of mineral supply risk across commodities and identifies several minerals other than REEs that could suddenly become less available. Combined with an assessment of the impact of a reduction in supply, decision makers can use these measures to prioritize risk reduction efforts.

  4. Contract farming risks: A quantitative assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arkins M Kabungo

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study is to identify the key risks facing each of the stakeholders in the export-focused paprika value chain in Zambia. Although a deterministic cost-benefit analysis indicated that this outgrower scheme would have a very satisfactory net present value (NPV, a Monte Carlo analysis using an integrated financial–economic–stakeholder model identifies a number of risk variables that could make this system unsustainable. The major risks include the variability of the real exchange rate in Zambia; the international price of paprika; and the farm yield rates. This analysis points out that irrigation systems are very important for both stabilising and increasing yields. The analysis also shows the limitations of loan financing for such outgrower arrangements when at the sector level it is difficult or even impossible to mitigate the risks from real exchange rate movements and changes in international commodity prices. This micro-level analysis shows how critical real exchange rate management policies are in achieving sustainability of such export-oriented value chains.

  5. Towards a quantitative understanding of the late Neoproterozoic carbon cycle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjerrum, Christian J.; Canfield, Donald Eugene

    2011-01-01

    Neoproterozoic Eon, the time when animals first evolved, experienced wild isotope fluctuations which do not conform to our normal understanding of the carbon cycle and carbon-oxygen coupling. We interpret these fluctuations with a new carbon cycle model and demonstrate that all of the main features...

  6. Combining qualitative and quantitative research approaches in understanding pain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moore, R.

    1996-01-01

    findings. Furthermore, with specific scientific assumptions, combining methods can aid in estimating minimum sample size required for theoretical generalizations from even a qualitative sample. This is based on measures of how accurately subjects describe a given social phenomenon and degree of agreement......There are many research issues about validity and especially reliability in regards to qualitative research results. Generalizability is brought into question to any population base from which a relatively small number of informants are drawn. Sensitivity to new discoveries is an advantage...... of qualitative research while the advantage of quantified survey data is their reliability. This paper argues for combining qualitative and quantitative methods to improve concurrent validity of results by triangulating interviews, observations or focus group data with short surveys for validation of main...

  7. Quantitative risk assessment of digitalized safety systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shin, Sung Min; Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hym Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Seung Jun [UNIST, Ulasn (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    A report published by the U.S. National Research Council indicates that appropriate methods for assessing reliability are key to establishing the acceptability of digital instrumentation and control (I and C) systems in safety-critical plants such as NPPs. Since the release of this issue, the methodology for the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of digital I and C systems has been studied. However, there is still no widely accepted method. Kang and Sung found three critical factors for safety assessment of digital systems: detection coverage of fault-tolerant techniques, software reliability quantification, and network communication risk. In reality the various factors composing digitalized I and C systems are not independent of each other but rather closely connected. Thus, from a macro point of view, a method that can integrate risk factors with different characteristics needs to be considered together with the micro approaches to address the challenges facing each factor.

  8. From risk analysis to risk control in land transport of dangerous materials. Contribution of quantitative evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, Ph.; Pages, P.

    1985-03-01

    The different approaches of risks and risk management system are described: statistics, potential risk, prevention, information and intervention. Quantitative evaluation is developed: data collection, purposes and methods. Two examples of application are given on risks associated to road transport of propane and of uranium hexafluoride. In conclusion level of risk and practical use of studies on risks are examined. 41 refs [fr

  9. The use of quantitative risk assessment in HACCP

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoornstra, E.; Northolt, M.D.; Notermans, S.; Barendsz, A.W.

    2001-01-01

    During the hazard analysis as part of the development of a HACCP-system, first the hazards (contaminants) have to be identified and then the risks have to be assessed. Often, this assessment is restricted to a qualitative analysis. By using elements of quantitative risk assessment (QRA) the hazard

  10. Understanding the nature of nuclear power plant risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Denning, R. S.

    2012-01-01

    This paper describes the evolution of understanding of severe accident consequences from the non-mechanistic assumptions of WASH-740 to WASH-1400, NUREG-1150, SOARCA and today in the interpretation of the consequences of the accident at Fukushima. As opposed to the general perception, the radiological human health consequences to members of the Japanese public from the Fukushima accident will be small despite meltdowns at three reactors and loss of containment integrity. In contrast, the radiation-related societal impacts present a substantial additional economic burden on top of the monumental task of economic recovery from the nonnuclear aspects of the earthquake and tsunami damage. The Fukushima accident provides additional evidence that we have mis-characterized the risk of nuclear power plant accidents to ourselves and to the public. The human health risks are extremely small even to people living next door to a nuclear power plant. The principal risk associated with a nuclear power plant accident involves societal impacts: relocation of people, loss of land use, loss of contaminated products, decontamination costs and the need for replacement power. Although two of the three probabilistic safety goals of the NRC address societal risk, the associated quantitative health objectives in reality only address individual human health risk. This paper describes the types of analysis that would address compliance with the societal goals. (authors)

  11. Towards a quantitative understanding of the late Neoproterozoic carbon cycle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjerrum, Christian Jannik; Canfield, Donald Eugene

    2011-01-01

    The cycles of carbon and oxygen at the Earth surface are intimately linked, where the burial of organic carbon into sediments represents a source of oxygen to the surface environment. This coupling is typically quantified through the isotope records of organic and inorganic carbon. Yet, the late...... Neoproterozoic Eon, the time when animals first evolved, experienced wild isotope fluctuations which do not conform to our normal understanding of the carbon cycle and carbon-oxygen coupling. We interpret these fluctuations with a new carbon cycle model and demonstrate that all of the main features...... of the carbonate and organic carbon isotope record can be explained by the release of methane hydrates from an anoxic dissolved organic carbon-rich ocean into an atmosphere containing oxygen levels considerably less than today....

  12. Quantitative chemobiology: a guide into the understanding of plant bioactivity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gottlieb Otto R.

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Nothing is more important for human survival today, than understanding nature's mechanisms via a chemo-biological language. This multidisciplinary approach is a complex operation, because it involves integration of several levels of organization, such as chemistry, morphology and ecogeography, expressed by diversification of metabolites, forms and environments, respectively. A comparison among these different expressions of life, in spite of undisputed importance, still remains an arduous research topic. Application of this unified approach would revigorate the study of old and controversial matter, plant bioactivity. To face the major challenge toward this aim: confrontation of traditional knowledge with scientific methodology, required the determination of trends among the uses of angiosperm species independently of empiricisms and regionalities. Thus, incorporation of new codes, expressing biological functions, in the chemo-biological language becomes possible only through evolutionary concepts and patterns.

  13. Understanding Crystal Populations; Looking Towards 3D Quantitative Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jerram, D. A.; Morgan, D. J.

    2010-12-01

    In order to understand volcanic systems, the potential record held within crystal populations needs to be revealed. It is becoming increasingly clear, however, that the crystal populations that arrive at the surface in volcanic eruptions are commonly mixtures of crystals, which may be representative of simple crystallization, recycling of crystals and incorporation of alien crystals. If we can quantify the true 3D population within a sample then we will be able to separate crystals with different histories and begin to interrogate the true and complex plumbing within the volcanic system. Modeling crystal populations is one area where we can investigate the best methodologies to use when dealing with sections through 3D populations. By producing known 3D shapes and sizes with virtual textures and looking at the statistics of shape and size when such populations are sectioned, we are able to gain confidence about what our 2D information is telling us about the population. We can also use this approach to test the size of population we need to analyze. 3D imaging through serial sectioning or x-ray CT, provides a complete 3D quantification of a rocks texture. Individual phases can be identified and in principle the true 3D statistics of the population can be interrogated. In practice we need to develop strategies (as with 2D-3D transformations), that enable a true characterization of the 3D data, and an understanding of the errors and pitfalls that exist. Ultimately, the reproduction of true 3D textures and the wealth of information they hold, is now within our reach.

  14. The profile of quantitative risk indicators in Krsko NPP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vrbanic, I.; Basic, I.; Bilic-Zabric, T.; Spiler, J.

    2004-01-01

    During the past decade strong initiative was observed which was aimed at incorporating information on risk into various aspects of operation of nuclear power plants. The initiative was observable in activities carried out by regulators as well as utilities and industry. It resulted in establishing the process, or procedure, which is often referred to as integrated decision making or risk informed decision making. In this process, engineering analyses and evaluations that are usually termed traditional and that rely on considerations of safety margins and defense in depth are supplemented by quantitative indicators of risk. Throughout the process, the plant risk was most commonly expressed in terms of likelihood of events involving damage to the reactor core and events with radiological releases to the environment. These became two commonly used quantitative indicators or metrics of plant risk (or, reciprocally, plant safety). They were evaluated for their magnitude (e.g. the expected number of events per specified time interval), as well as their profile (e.g. the types of contributing events). The information for quantitative risk indicators (to be used in risk informing process) is obtained from plant's probabilistic safety analyses or analyses of hazards. It is dependable on issues such as availability of input data or quality of model or analysis. Nuclear power plant Krsko has recently performed Periodic Safety Review, which was a good opportunity to evaluate and integrate the plant specific information on quantitative plant risk indicators and their profile. The paper discusses some aspects of quantitative plant risk profile and its perception.(author)

  15. Quantitative understanding of nanoparticle uptake in watermelon plants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramesh Raliya

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The use of agrochemical-nutrient fertilizers has come under scrutiny in recent years due to concerns that they damage the ecosystem and endanger public health. Nanotechnology offers many possible interventions to mitigate these risks by use of nanofertilizers, nanopesticides, and nanosensors; and concurrently increases profitability, yields, and sustainability within the agricultural industry. Aerosol based foliar delivery of nanoparticles may help to enhance nanoparticle uptake and reduce environmental impacts of chemical fertilizers conventionally applied through a soil route. The purpose of this work was to study uptake, translocation, and accumulation of various gold nanostructures, 30 to 80 nm, delivered by aerosol application to a watermelon plant. Cellular uptake and accumulation of gold nanoparticles were quantified by Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectroscopy (ICP-MS. Observations suggested that nanoparticles could be taken up by the plant through direct penetration and transport through the stomatal opening. Observed translocation of nanoparticles from leaf to root shows evidence that nanoparticles travel by the phloem transport mechanism. Accumulation and transport of nanoparticles depend on nanoparticle shape, application method, and nature of plant tissues.

  16. Quantitative risk stratification in Markov chains with limiting conditional distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, David C; Pollett, Philip K; Weinstein, Milton C

    2009-01-01

    Many clinical decisions require patient risk stratification. The authors introduce the concept of limiting conditional distributions, which describe the equilibrium proportion of surviving patients occupying each disease state in a Markov chain with death. Such distributions can quantitatively describe risk stratification. The authors first establish conditions for the existence of a positive limiting conditional distribution in a general Markov chain and describe a framework for risk stratification using the limiting conditional distribution. They then apply their framework to a clinical example of a treatment indicated for high-risk patients, first to infer the risk of patients selected for treatment in clinical trials and then to predict the outcomes of expanding treatment to other populations of risk. For the general chain, a positive limiting conditional distribution exists only if patients in the earliest state have the lowest combined risk of progression or death. The authors show that in their general framework, outcomes and population risk are interchangeable. For the clinical example, they estimate that previous clinical trials have selected the upper quintile of patient risk for this treatment, but they also show that expanded treatment would weakly dominate this degree of targeted treatment, and universal treatment may be cost-effective. Limiting conditional distributions exist in most Markov models of progressive diseases and are well suited to represent risk stratification quantitatively. This framework can characterize patient risk in clinical trials and predict outcomes for other populations of risk.

  17. An Inside View: The Utility of Quantitative Observation in Understanding College Educational Experiences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Corbin M.

    2017-01-01

    This article describes quantitative observation as a method for understanding college educational experiences. Quantitative observation has been used widely in several fields and in K-12 education, but has had limited application to research in higher education and student affairs to date. The article describes the central tenets of quantitative…

  18. Stochastic evaluation of tsunami inundation and quantitative estimating tsunami risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fukutani, Yo; Anawat, Suppasri; Abe, Yoshi; Imamura, Fumihiko

    2014-01-01

    We performed a stochastic evaluation of tsunami inundation by using results of stochastic tsunami hazard assessment at the Soma port in the Tohoku coastal area. Eleven fault zones along the Japan trench were selected as earthquake faults generating tsunamis. The results show that estimated inundation area of return period about 1200 years had good agreement with that in the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. In addition, we evaluated quantitatively tsunami risk for four types of building; a reinforced concrete, a steel, a brick and a wood at the Soma port by combining the results of inundation assessment and tsunami fragility assessment. The results of quantitative estimating risk would reflect properly vulnerability of the buildings, that the wood building has high risk and the reinforced concrete building has low risk. (author)

  19. Quantitative Security Risk Assessment of Android Permissions and Applications

    OpenAIRE

    Wang , Yang; Zheng , Jun; Sun , Chen; Mukkamala , Srinivas

    2013-01-01

    Part 6: Mobile Computing; International audience; The booming of the Android platform in recent years has attracted the attention of malware developers. However, the permissions-based model used in Android system to prevent the spread of malware, has shown to be ineffective. In this paper, we propose DroidRisk, a framework for quantitative security risk assessment of both Android permissions and applications (apps) based on permission request patterns from benign apps and malware, which aims ...

  20. On how to understand and acknowledge risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amundrud, Øystein; Aven, Terje

    2015-01-01

    In Norway two concepts in risk assessment and management – risikoforståelse and risikoerkjennelse – have recently been given much attention, particularly in the oil and gas industry and in societal safety and security contexts. The former concept corresponds quite well to ‘risk understanding’ but the latter does not have an exact counterpart in English – the best term seems to be ‘risk acknowledgement’. The discourse related to these two concepts has given us new general insights concerning the risk concept and its practical use, and the purpose of the present paper is to point to and discuss the main observations made. A main conclusion of the paper is that justified beliefs – what we refer to as knowledge – and the processes of generating these beliefs is an essential feature of both these concepts. - Highlights: • We examine two concepts – ‘risk understanding’ and ‘risk acknowledgement’. • Justified beliefs (knowledge) is an essential feature of both concepts. • Risk assessment is to a large extent about gaining ‘risk understanding’. • ‘Risk acknowledgement’ is of special importance in cases with deep uncertainties

  1. Modeling Logistic Performance in Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rijgersberg, H.; Tromp, S.O.; Jacxsens, L.; Uyttendaele, M.

    2010-01-01

    In quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA), food safety in the food chain is modeled and simulated. In general, prevalences, concentrations, and numbers of microorganisms in media are investigated in the different steps from farm to fork. The underlying rates and conditions (such as storage

  2. Quantitative risk analysis of a space shuttle subsystem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frank, M.V.

    1989-01-01

    This paper reports that in an attempt to investigate methods for risk management other than qualitative analysis techniques, NASA has funded pilot study quantitative risk analyses for space shuttle subsystems. The authors performed one such study of two shuttle subsystems with McDonnell Douglas Astronautics Company. The subsystems were the auxiliary power units (APU) on the orbiter, and the hydraulic power units on the solid rocket booster. The technology and results of the APU study are presented in this paper. Drawing from a rich in-flight database as well as from a wealth of tests and analyses, the study quantitatively assessed the risk of APU-initiated scenarios on the shuttle during all phases of a flight mission. Damage states of interest were loss of crew/vehicle, aborted mission, and launch scrub. A quantitative risk analysis approach to deciding on important items for risk management was contrasted with the current NASA failure mode and effects analysis/critical item list approach

  3. Quantitative evaluation of risks for individuals in diagnostic radiology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Iinuma, T A; Tateno, Y; Hashizume, T [National Inst. of Radiological Sciences, Chiba (Japan)

    1980-05-01

    A method to estimate quantitatively risks of individual patients due to exposure to diagnostic radiation (carcinogenetic and genetic effects of radiation) was proposed on the basis of ICRP-26. Carcinogenetic effect of radiation was calculated by multiplying mean dose equivalent for each organ per each radiological examination by shortening of average life-expectancy which was calculated from incidence of fetal carcinoma of each organ, latent period of carcinoma, and incidence period of carcinoma. Genetic effect of radiation was calculated by multiplying mean dose equivalent for gonad per each radiological examination by incidence of genetically severe radiation damages due to parent's exposure and child expectancy rate. Three examples were shown on calculations of risks in the photofluorographic examinations of the stomach and chest, and mammography. The same method of calculation could be applied to the in-vivo nuclear medicine examinations. Further investigation was required to calculate the risks quantitatively for various types of diagnostic procedures using radiation.

  4. Breach Risk Magnitude: A Quantitative Measure of Database Security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yasnoff, William A

    2016-01-01

    A quantitative methodology is described that provides objective evaluation of the potential for health record system breaches. It assumes that breach risk increases with the number of potential records that could be exposed, while it decreases when more authentication steps are required for access. The breach risk magnitude (BRM) is the maximum value for any system user of the common logarithm of the number of accessible database records divided by the number of authentication steps needed to achieve such access. For a one million record relational database, the BRM varies from 5.52 to 6 depending on authentication protocols. For an alternative data architecture designed specifically to increase security by separately storing and encrypting each patient record, the BRM ranges from 1.3 to 2.6. While the BRM only provides a limited quantitative assessment of breach risk, it may be useful to objectively evaluate the security implications of alternative database organization approaches.

  5. Quantitative evaluation of risks for individuals in diagnostic radiology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iinuma, T.A.; Tateno, Yukio; Hashizume, Tadashi

    1980-01-01

    A method to estimate quantitatively risks of individual patients due to exposure to diagnostic radiation (carcinogenetic and genetic effects of radiation) was proposed on the basis of ICRP-26. Carcinogenetic effect of radiation was calculated by multiplying mean dose equivalent for each organ per each radiological examination by shortening of average life-expectancy which was calculated from incidence of fetal carcinoma of each organ, latent period of carcinoma, and incidence period of carcinoma. Genetic effect of radiation was calculated by multiplying mean dose equivalent for gonad per each radiological examination by incidence of genetically severe radiation damages due to parent's exposure and child expectancy rate. Three examples were shown on calculations of risks in the photofluorographic examinations of the stomach and chest, and mammography. The same method of calculation could be applied to the in-vivo nuclear medicine examinations. Further investigation was required to calculate the risks quantitatively for various types of diagnostic procedures using radiation. (Tsunoda, M.)

  6. Understanding Pesticide Risks: Toxicity and Formulation

    OpenAIRE

    Muntz, Helen; Miller, Rhonda; Alston, Diane

    2016-01-01

    This fact sheet provides information about pesticide risks to human health, primary means of pesticide exposure, standardized measures of pesticide toxicity, pesticide signal words and type of pesticide formulations.

  7. Understand Your Risk of Heart Attack

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... not as great as men's. Heredity (Including Race) Children of parents with heart disease are more likely to develop it themselves. African Americans have more severe high blood pressure than Caucasians and a higher risk of heart ...

  8. Understand Your Risk for Excessive Blood Clotting

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... and Live Our Interactive Cardiovascular Library has detailed animations and illustrations to help you learn about conditions, treatments and procedures related to heart disease and stroke. Popular Articles 1 Understanding Blood Pressure Readings 2 Sodium and Salt 3 Heart Attack Symptoms ...

  9. Understand Your Risk for Cardiac Arrest

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... and Live Our Interactive Cardiovascular Library has detailed animations and illustrations to help you learn about conditions, treatments and procedures related to heart disease and stroke. Popular Articles 1 Understanding Blood Pressure Readings 2 Sodium and Salt 3 Heart Attack Symptoms ...

  10. Understanding Credit Risk: A Classroom Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Servatka, Maros; Theocharides, George

    2011-01-01

    This classroom experiment introduces students to the notion of credit risk and expected return, by allowing them to trade on comparable corporate bond issues from two types of markets: investment-grade and high-yield markets. Investment-grade issues have a lower probability of default than high-yield issues and thus provide a lower yield.…

  11. Understanding the statistics of small risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siddall, E.

    1983-10-01

    Monte Carlo analyses are used to show what inferences can and cannot be drawn when either a very small number of accidents result from a considerable exposure or where a very small number of people, down to a single individual, are exposed to small added risks. The distinction between relative and absolute uncertainty is illustrated. No new statistical principles are involved

  12. Risk prediction, safety analysis and quantitative probability methods - a caveat

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Critchley, O.H.

    1976-01-01

    Views are expressed on the use of quantitative techniques for the determination of value judgements in nuclear safety assessments, hazard evaluation, and risk prediction. Caution is urged when attempts are made to quantify value judgements in the field of nuclear safety. Criteria are given the meaningful application of reliability methods but doubts are expressed about their application to safety analysis, risk prediction and design guidances for experimental or prototype plant. Doubts are also expressed about some concomitant methods of population dose evaluation. The complexities of new designs of nuclear power plants make the problem of safety assessment more difficult but some possible approaches are suggested as alternatives to the quantitative techniques criticized. (U.K.)

  13. New developments in quantitative risk assessment of campylobacteriosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Havelaar, Arie; Nauta, Maarten

    meat to ready-to-eat foods is the main pathway of consumer exposure. Undercooking appears to be of minor importance. However, this conclusion may need to be reconsidered in the light of increasing consumption of minced meat preparations. Five QMRA models have been compared in detail, and detailed......Quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) is now broadly accepted as an important decision support tool in food safety risk management. It has been used to support decision making at the global level (Codex Alimentarius, FAO and WHO), at the European level (European Food Safety Authority...

  14. N reactor individual risk comparison to quantitative nuclear safety goals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, O.S.; Rainey, T.E.; Zentner, M.D.

    1990-01-01

    A full-scope level III probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) has been completed for N reactor, a US Department of Energy (DOE) production reactor located on the Hanford Reservation in the state of Washington. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) provided the technical leadership for this work, using the state-of-the-art NUREG-1150 methodology developed for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The main objectives of this effort were to assess the risks to the public and to the on-site workers posed by the operation of N reactor, to identify changes to the plant that could reduce the overall risk, and to compare those risks to the proposed NRC and DOE quantitative safety goals. This paper presents the methodology adopted by Westinghouse Hanford Company (WHC) and SNL for individual health risk evaluation, its results, and a comparison to the NRC safety objectives and the DOE nuclear safety guidelines. The N reactor results, are also compared with the five NUREG-1150 nuclear plants. Only internal events are compared here because external events are not yet reported in the current draft NUREG-1150. This is the first full-scope level III PRA study with a detailed quantitative safety goal comparison performed for DOE production reactors

  15. Quantitative, Qualitative and Geospatial Methods to Characterize HIV Risk Environments.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erin E Conners

    Full Text Available Increasingly, 'place', including physical and geographical characteristics as well as social meanings, is recognized as an important factor driving individual and community health risks. This is especially true among marginalized populations in low and middle income countries (LMIC, whose environments may also be more difficult to study using traditional methods. In the NIH-funded longitudinal study Mapa de Salud, we employed a novel approach to exploring the risk environment of female sex workers (FSWs in two Mexico/U.S. border cities, Tijuana and Ciudad Juárez. In this paper we describe the development, implementation, and feasibility of a mix of quantitative and qualitative tools used to capture the HIV risk environments of FSWs in an LMIC setting. The methods were: 1 Participatory mapping; 2 Quantitative interviews; 3 Sex work venue field observation; 4 Time-location-activity diaries; 5 In-depth interviews about daily activity spaces. We found that the mixed-methodology outlined was both feasible to implement and acceptable to participants. These methods can generate geospatial data to assess the role of the environment on drug and sexual risk behaviors among high risk populations. Additionally, the adaptation of existing methods for marginalized populations in resource constrained contexts provides new opportunities for informing public health interventions.

  16. Do we actually understand how people perceive risk?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bochud, Francois O.

    2016-11-01

    The best way to understand how people perceive radiation risk is to not consider them as fundamentally different from experts, but rather, to consider how we, as experts, naturally react when we are confronted with a risk and how we like to be treated. Do we have to alter our language to make it understandable by members of the public?.

  17. Quantitative risk analysis as a basis for emergency planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yogui, Regiane Tiemi Teruya [Bureau Veritas do Brasil, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Macedo, Eduardo Soares de [Instituto de Pesquisas Tecnologicas (IPT), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Several environmental accidents happened in Brazil and in the world during the 70's and 80's. This strongly motivated the preparation for emergencies in the chemical and petrochemical industries. Environmental accidents affect the environment and the communities that are neighbor to the industrial facilities. The present study aims at subsidizing and providing orientation to develop Emergency Planning from the data obtained on Quantitative Risk Analysis, elaborated according to the Technical Standard P4.261/03 from CETESB (Sao Paulo Environmental Agency). It was observed, during the development of the research, that the data generated on these studies need a complementation and a deeper analysis, so that it is possible to use them on the Emergency Plans. The main issues that were analyzed and discussed on this study were the reevaluation of hazard identification for the emergency plans, the consequences and vulnerability analysis for the response planning, the risk communication, and the preparation to respond to the emergencies of the communities exposed to manageable risks. As a result, the study intends to improve the interpretation and use of the data deriving from the Quantitative Risk Analysis to develop the emergency plans. (author)

  18. Supply chain risk management of newspaper industry: A quantitative study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sartika, Viny; Hisjam, Muh.; Sutopo, Wahyudi

    2018-02-01

    The newspaper industry has several distinctive features that make it stands out from other industries. The strict delivery deadline and zero inventory led to a very short time frame for production and distribution. On the other hand, there is pressure from the newsroom to encourage the start of production as slowly as possible in order to enter the news, while there is pressure from production and distribution to start production as early as possible. Supply chain risk management is needed in determining the best strategy for dealing with possible risks in the newspaper industry. In a case study of a newspaper in Surakarta, quantitative approaches are made to the newspaper supply chain risk management by calculating the expected cost of risk based on the magnitude of the impact and the probability of a risk event. From the calculation results obtained that the five risks with the highest value are newspaper delays to the end customer, broken plate, miss print, down machine, and delayed delivery of newspaper content. Then analyzed appropriate mitigation strategies to cope with such risk events.

  19. Quantitative risk analysis of the pipeline GASDUC III - solutions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silva, Edmilson P.; Bettoni, Izabel Cristina [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    In this work the quantitative risks analysis to the external public of the Pipeline Cabiunas - REDUC (GASDUC III), with 180 km, linking the municipalities of Macae and Duque de Caxias - RJ was performed by the Companies PETROBRAS and ITSEMAP do Brasil. In addition to the large diameter of the pipeline 38 inches and high operation pressure 100 kgf/cm{sup 2} operating with natural gas through several densely populated areas. Initially, the individual risk contours were calculated without considering mitigating measures, obtaining as result the individual risk contour with frequencies of 1x10{sup -06} per year involving sensitive occupations and therefore considered unacceptable when compared with the INEA criterion. The societal risk was calculated for eight densely populated areas and their respective FN-curves situated below the advised limit established by INEA, except for two areas that required the proposal of additional mitigating measures to the reduction of societal risk. Regarding to societal risk, the FN-curve should be below the advised limit presented in the Technical Instruction of INEA. The individual and societal risk were reassessed incorporating some mitigating measures and the results situated below the advised limits established by INEA and PETROBRAS has obtained the license for installation of the pipeline. (author)

  20. A semi-quantitative model for risk appreciation and risk weighing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bos, Peter M.J.; Boon, Polly E.; van der Voet, Hilko

    2009-01-01

    Risk managers need detailed information on (1) the type of effect, (2) the size (severity) of the expected effect(s) and (3) the fraction of the population at risk to decide on well-balanced risk reduction measures. A previously developed integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) model...... provides quantitative information on these three parameters. A semi-quantitative tool is presented that combines information on these parameters into easy-readable charts that will facilitate risk evaluations of exposure situations and decisions on risk reduction measures. This tool is based on a concept...... detailed information on the estimated health impact in a given exposure situation. These graphs will facilitate the discussions on appropriate risk reduction measures to be taken....

  1. Approaches to quantitative risk assessment with applications to PP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geiger, G.; Schaefer, A.

    2002-01-01

    Full text: Experience with accidents such as Goiania in Brazil and indications of a considerable number of orphan sources suggest that improved protection would be desirable for some types of radioactive material of wide-spread use such as radiation sources for civil purposes. Regarding large potential health and economic consequences (in particular, if terrorists attacks cannot be excluded), significant costs of preventive actions, and large uncertainties about both the likelihood of occurrence and the potential consequences of PP safety and security incidents, an optimum relationship between preventive and mitigative efforts is likely to be a key issue for successful risk management in this field. Thus, possible violations of physical protection combined with threats of misuse of nuclear materials, including terrorist attack, pose considerable challenges to global security from various perspectives. In view of these challenges, recent advance in applied risk and decision analysis suggests methodological and procedural improvements in quantitative risk assessment, the demarcation of acceptable risk, and risk management. Advance is based on a recently developed model of optimal risky choice suitable for assessing and comparing the cumulative probability distribution functions attached to safety and security risks. Besides quantification of risk (e. g., in economic terms), the standardization of various risk assessment models frequently used in operations research can be approached on this basis. The paper explores possible applications of these improved methods to the safety and security management of nuclear materials, cost efficiency of risk management measures, and the establishment international safety and security standards of PP. Examples will be presented that are based on selected scenarios of misuse involving typical radioactive sources. (author)

  2. Daily Aspirin Therapy: Understand the Benefits and Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daily aspirin therapy: Understand the benefits and risks Daily aspirin therapy can be a lifesaving option, but it's not ... everyone. Get the facts before considering a daily aspirin. By Mayo Clinic Staff Daily aspirin therapy may ...

  3. Quantitative targeted proteomics for understanding the blood-brain barrier: towards pharmacoproteomics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohtsuki, Sumio; Hirayama, Mio; Ito, Shingo; Uchida, Yasuo; Tachikawa, Masanori; Terasaki, Tetsuya

    2014-06-01

    The blood-brain barrier (BBB) is formed by brain capillary endothelial cells linked together via complex tight junctions, and serves to prevent entry of drugs into the brain. Multiple transporters are expressed at the BBB, where they control exchange of materials between the circulating blood and brain interstitial fluid, thereby supporting and protecting the CNS. An understanding of the BBB is necessary for efficient development of CNS-acting drugs and to identify potential drug targets for treatment of CNS diseases. Quantitative targeted proteomics can provide detailed information on protein expression levels at the BBB. The present review highlights the latest applications of quantitative targeted proteomics in BBB research, specifically to evaluate species and in vivo-in vitro differences, and to reconstruct in vivo transport activity. Such a BBB quantitative proteomics approach can be considered as pharmacoproteomics.

  4. A probabilistic method for computing quantitative risk indexes from medical injuries compensation claims.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalle Carbonare, S; Folli, F; Patrini, E; Giudici, P; Bellazzi, R

    2013-01-01

    The increasing demand of health care services and the complexity of health care delivery require Health Care Organizations (HCOs) to approach clinical risk management through proper methods and tools. An important aspect of risk management is to exploit the analysis of medical injuries compensation claims in order to reduce adverse events and, at the same time, to optimize the costs of health insurance policies. This work provides a probabilistic method to estimate the risk level of a HCO by computing quantitative risk indexes from medical injury compensation claims. Our method is based on the estimate of a loss probability distribution from compensation claims data through parametric and non-parametric modeling and Monte Carlo simulations. The loss distribution can be estimated both on the whole dataset and, thanks to the application of a Bayesian hierarchical model, on stratified data. The approach allows to quantitatively assessing the risk structure of the HCO by analyzing the loss distribution and deriving its expected value and percentiles. We applied the proposed method to 206 cases of injuries with compensation requests collected from 1999 to the first semester of 2007 by the HCO of Lodi, in the Northern part of Italy. We computed the risk indexes taking into account the different clinical departments and the different hospitals involved. The approach proved to be useful to understand the HCO risk structure in terms of frequency, severity, expected and unexpected loss related to adverse events.

  5. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-04-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  6. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-01-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  7. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy, E-mail: gasandylang@live.com; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Diponegoro University, Semarang (Indonesia); Kim, Seon Jin [Department of Mechanical & Automotive Engineering of Pukyong National University (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-04-19

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  8. Is there a place for quantitative risk assessment?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hall, Eric J [Columbia University Medical Center, New York, NY (United States)

    2009-06-01

    The use of ionising radiations is so well established, especially in the practice of medicine, that it is impossible to imagine contemporary life without them. At the same time, ionising radiations are a known and proven human carcinogen. Exposure to radiation in some contexts elicits fear and alarm (nuclear power for example) while in other situations, until recently at least, it was accepted with alacrity (diagnostic x-rays for example). This non-uniform reaction to the potential hazards of radiation highlights the importance of quantitative risk estimates, which are necessary to help put things into perspective. Three areas will be discussed where quantitative risk estimates are needed and where uncertainties and limitations are a problem. First, the question of diagnostic x-rays. CT usage over the past quarter of a century has increased about 12 fold in the UK and more than 20 fold in the US. In both countries, more than 90% of the collective population dose from diagnostic x-rays comes from the few high dose procedures, such as interventional radiology, CT scans, lumbar spine x-rays and barium enemas. These all involve doses close to the lower limit at which there are credible epidemiological data for an excess cancer incidence. This is a critical question; what is the lowest dose at which there is good evidence of an elevated cancer incidence? Without low dose risk estimates the risk-benefit ratio of diagnostic procedures cannot be assessed. Second, the use of new techniques in radiation oncology. IMRT is widely used to obtain a more conformal dose distribution, particularly in children. It results in a larger total body dose, due to an increased number of monitor units and to the application of more radiation fields. The Linacs used today were not designed for IMRT and are based on leakage standards that were decided decades ago. It will be difficult and costly to reduce leakage from treatment machines, and a necessary first step is to refine the available

  9. Is there a place for quantitative risk assessment?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hall, Eric J

    2009-01-01

    The use of ionising radiations is so well established, especially in the practice of medicine, that it is impossible to imagine contemporary life without them. At the same time, ionising radiations are a known and proven human carcinogen. Exposure to radiation in some contexts elicits fear and alarm (nuclear power for example) while in other situations, until recently at least, it was accepted with alacrity (diagnostic x-rays for example). This non-uniform reaction to the potential hazards of radiation highlights the importance of quantitative risk estimates, which are necessary to help put things into perspective. Three areas will be discussed where quantitative risk estimates are needed and where uncertainties and limitations are a problem. First, the question of diagnostic x-rays. CT usage over the past quarter of a century has increased about 12 fold in the UK and more than 20 fold in the US. In both countries, more than 90% of the collective population dose from diagnostic x-rays comes from the few high dose procedures, such as interventional radiology, CT scans, lumbar spine x-rays and barium enemas. These all involve doses close to the lower limit at which there are credible epidemiological data for an excess cancer incidence. This is a critical question; what is the lowest dose at which there is good evidence of an elevated cancer incidence? Without low dose risk estimates the risk-benefit ratio of diagnostic procedures cannot be assessed. Second, the use of new techniques in radiation oncology. IMRT is widely used to obtain a more conformal dose distribution, particularly in children. It results in a larger total body dose, due to an increased number of monitor units and to the application of more radiation fields. The Linacs used today were not designed for IMRT and are based on leakage standards that were decided decades ago. It will be difficult and costly to reduce leakage from treatment machines, and a necessary first step is to refine the available

  10. Quantitative risk analysis offshore-Human and organizational factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Espen Skogdalen, Jon; Vinnem, Jan Erik

    2011-01-01

    Quantitative Risk Analyses (QRAs) are one of the main tools for risk management within the Norwegian and UK oil and gas industry. Much criticism has been given to the limitations related to the QRA-models and that the QRAs do not include human and organizational factors (HOF-factors). Norway and UK offshore legislation and guidelines require that the HOF-factors are included in the QRAs. A study of 15 QRAs shows that the factors are to some extent included, and there are large differences between the QRAs. The QRAs are categorized into four levels according to the findings. Level 1 QRAs do not describe or comment on the HOF-factors at all. Relevant research projects have been conducted to fulfill the requirements of Level 3 analyses. At this level, there is a systematic collection of data related to HOF. The methods are systematic and documented, and the QRAs are adjusted. None of the QRAs fulfill the Level 4 requirements. Level 4 QRAs include the model and describe the HOF-factors as well as explain how the results should be followed up in the overall risk management. Safety audits by regulatory authorities are probably necessary to point out the direction for QRA and speed up the development.

  11. Quantitative risk assessment of foods containing peanut advisory labeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remington, Benjamin C; Baumert, Joseph L; Marx, David B; Taylor, Steve L

    2013-12-01

    Foods with advisory labeling (i.e. "may contain") continue to be prevalent and the warning may be increasingly ignored by allergic consumers. We sought to determine the residual levels of peanut in various packaged foods bearing advisory labeling, compare similar data from 2005 and 2009, and determine any potential risk for peanut-allergic consumers. Of food products bearing advisory statements regarding peanut or products that had peanut listed as a minor ingredient, 8.6% and 37.5% contained detectable levels of peanut (>2.5 ppm whole peanut), respectively. Peanut-allergic individuals should be advised to avoid such products regardless of the wording of the advisory statement. Peanut was detected at similar rates and levels in products tested in both 2005 and 2009. Advisory labeled nutrition bars contained the highest levels of peanut and an additional market survey of 399 products was conducted. Probabilistic risk assessment showed the risk of a reaction to peanut-allergic consumers from advisory labeled nutrition bars was significant but brand-dependent. Peanut advisory labeling may be overused on some nutrition bars but prudently used on others. The probabilistic approach could provide the food industry with a quantitative method to assist with determining when advisory labeling is most appropriate. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Modeling logistic performance in quantitative microbial risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rijgersberg, Hajo; Tromp, Seth; Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke

    2010-01-01

    In quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA), food safety in the food chain is modeled and simulated. In general, prevalences, concentrations, and numbers of microorganisms in media are investigated in the different steps from farm to fork. The underlying rates and conditions (such as storage times, temperatures, gas conditions, and their distributions) are determined. However, the logistic chain with its queues (storages, shelves) and mechanisms for ordering products is usually not taken into account. As a consequence, storage times-mutually dependent in successive steps in the chain-cannot be described adequately. This may have a great impact on the tails of risk distributions. Because food safety risks are generally very small, it is crucial to model the tails of (underlying) distributions as accurately as possible. Logistic performance can be modeled by describing the underlying planning and scheduling mechanisms in discrete-event modeling. This is common practice in operations research, specifically in supply chain management. In this article, we present the application of discrete-event modeling in the context of a QMRA for Listeria monocytogenes in fresh-cut iceberg lettuce. We show the potential value of discrete-event modeling in QMRA by calculating logistic interventions (modifications in the logistic chain) and determining their significance with respect to food safety.

  13. Use of mechanistic simulations as a quantitative risk-ranking tool within the quality by design framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stocker, Elena; Toschkoff, Gregor; Sacher, Stephan; Khinast, Johannes G

    2014-11-20

    The purpose of this study is to evaluate the use of computer simulations for generating quantitative knowledge as a basis for risk ranking and mechanistic process understanding, as required by ICH Q9 on quality risk management systems. In this specific publication, the main focus is the demonstration of a risk assessment workflow, including a computer simulation for the generation of mechanistic understanding of active tablet coating in a pan coater. Process parameter screening studies are statistically planned under consideration of impacts on a potentially critical quality attribute, i.e., coating mass uniformity. Based on computer simulation data the process failure mode and effects analysis of the risk factors is performed. This results in a quantitative criticality assessment of process parameters and the risk priority evaluation of failure modes. The factor for a quantitative reassessment of the criticality and risk priority is the coefficient of variation, which represents the coating mass uniformity. The major conclusion drawn from this work is a successful demonstration of the integration of computer simulation in the risk management workflow leading to an objective and quantitative risk assessment. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  14. Integrating a quantitative risk appraisal in a health impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Adám, Balázs; Molnár, Agnes; Gulis, Gabriel

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Although the quantification of health outcomes in a health impact assessment (HIA) is scarce in practice, it is preferred by policymakers, as it assists various aspects of the decision-making process. This article provides an example of integrating a quantitative risk appraisal...... in an HIA performed for the recently adopted Hungarian anti-smoking policy which introduced a smoking ban in closed public places, workplaces and public transport vehicles, and is one of the most effective measures to decrease smoking-related ill health. METHODS: A comprehensive, prospective HIA...... to decrease the prevalence of active and passive smoking and result in a considerably positive effect on several diseases, among which lung cancer, chronic pulmonary diseases, coronary heart diseases and stroke have the greatest importance. The health gain calculated for the quantifiable health outcomes...

  15. Urban flooding and health risk analysis by use of quantitative microbial risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Signe Tanja

    D thesis is to identify the limitations and possibilities for optimising microbial risk assessments of urban flooding through more evidence-based solutions, including quantitative microbial data and hydrodynamic water quality models. The focus falls especially on the problem of data needs and the causes......, but also when wading through a flooded area. The results in this thesis have brought microbial risk assessments one step closer to more uniform and repeatable risk analysis by using actual and relevant measured data and hydrodynamic water quality models to estimate the risk from flooding caused...... are expected to increase in the future. To ensure public health during extreme rainfall, solutions are needed, but limited knowledge on microbial water quality, and related health risks, makes it difficult to implement microbial risk analysis as a part of the basis for decision making. The main aim of this Ph...

  16. Preparing for Local Adaptation: Understanding Flood Risk Perceptions in Pittsburgh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klima, K.; Wong-Parodi, G.

    2015-12-01

    The City of Pittsburgh experiences numerous floods every year. Aging and insufficient infrastructure contribute to flash floods and to over 20 billion gallons of combined sewer overflows annually, contaminating Pittsburgh's streets, basements, and waterways. Climate change is expected to further exacerbate this problem by causing more intense and more frequent extreme precipitation events in Western Pennsylvania. For a stormwater adaptation plan to be implemented effectively, the City will need informed public support. One way to achieve public understanding and support is through effective communication of the risks, benefits, and uncertainties of local flooding hazards and adaptation methods. In order to develop these communications effectively, the city and its partners will need to know what knowledge and attitudes the residents of Pittsburgh already hold about flood risks. Here we seek to (1) identify Pittsburgh residents' knowledge level, risk perception and attitudes towards flooding and storm water management, and (2) pre-test communications meant to inform and empower Pittsburghers about flood risks and adaptation strategies. We conduct a city-wide survey of 10,000 Pittsburgh renters and homeowners from four life situations: high risk, above poverty; high-risk, below poverty; low risk, above poverty; and low-risk, below poverty. Mixed media recruitment strategies (online and paper-based solicitations guided/organized by community organizations) assist in reaching all subpopulations. Preliminary results suggest participants know what stormwater runoff is, but have a weak understanding of how stormwater interacts with natural and built systems. Furthermore, although participants have a good understanding of the difference between green and gray infrastructure, this does not translate into a change in their willingness to pay for green infrastructure adaptation. This suggests additional communications about flood risks and adaptation strategies.

  17. Characterizing health risks associated with recreational swimming at Taiwanese beaches by using quantitative microbial risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jang, Cheng-Shin; Liang, Ching-Ping

    2018-01-01

    Taiwan is surrounded by oceans, and therefore numerous pleasure beaches attract millions of tourists annually to participate in recreational swimming activities. However, impaired water quality because of fecal pollution poses a potential threat to the tourists' health. This study probabilistically characterized the health risks associated with recreational swimming engendered by waterborne enterococci at 13 Taiwanese beaches by using quantitative microbial risk assessment. First, data on enterococci concentrations at coastal beaches monitored by the Taiwan Environmental Protection Administration were reproduced using nonparametric Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). The ingestion volumes of recreational swimming based on uniform and gamma distributions were subsequently determined using MCS. Finally, after the distribution combination of the two parameters, the beta-Poisson dose-response function was employed to quantitatively estimate health risks to recreational swimmers. Moreover, various levels of risk to recreational swimmers were classified and spatially mapped to explore feasible recreational and environmental management strategies at the beaches. The study results revealed that although the health risks associated with recreational swimming did not exceed an acceptable benchmark of 0.019 illnesses daily at all beaches, they approached to this benchmark at certain beaches. Beaches with relatively high risks are located in Northwestern Taiwan owing to the current movements.

  18. Using a quantitative risk register to promote learning from a patient safety reporting system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mansfield, James G; Caplan, Robert A; Campos, John S; Dreis, David F; Furman, Cathie

    2015-02-01

    Patient safety reporting systems are now used in most health care delivery organizations. These systems, such as the one in use at Virginia Mason (Seattle) since 2002, can provide valuable reports of risk and harm from the front lines of patient care. In response to the challenge of how to quantify and prioritize safety opportunities, a risk register system was developed and implemented. Basic risk register concepts were refined to provide a systematic way to understand risks reported by staff. The risk register uses a comprehensive taxonomy of patient risk and algorithmically assigns each patient safety report to 1 of 27 risk categories in three major domains (Evaluation, Treatment, and Critical Interactions). For each category, a composite score was calculated on the basis of event rate, harm, and cost. The composite scores were used to identify the "top five" risk categories, and patient safety reports in these categories were analyzed in greater depth to find recurrent patterns of risk and associated opportunities for improvement. The top five categories of risk were easy to identify and had distinctive "profiles" of rate, harm, and cost. The ability to categorize and rank risks across multiple dimensions yielded insights not previously available. These results were shared with leadership and served as input for planning quality and safety initiatives. This approach provided actionable input for the strategic planning process, while at the same time strengthening the Virginia Mason culture of safety. The quantitative patient safety risk register serves as one solution to the challenge of extracting valuable safety lessons from large numbers of incident reports and could profitably be adopted by other organizations.

  19. Informing people about radiation risks: a review of obstacles to public understanding and effective risk communication

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Covello, V.T.

    1988-01-01

    This paper reviews the literature on informing people about radiation risks. The paper focuses on obstacles to public understanding and effective risk communication. The paper concludes with a set of guidelines for communicating information about radiation risks to the public. The paper also includes an appendix that reviews the literature on one of the most important tools for communicating information about radiation risks: risk comparisons

  20. Some approaches to understanding public perceptions of risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greer-Wootten, B.

    1981-01-01

    The debate on nuclear power contains a central set of arguments that can be related, by and large, to differences in the meaning of risk assessment for various concerned publics. At an earlier point in time the arguments largely concerned power production (reactor safety), but now most components of the nuclear fuel cycle are subject to risk perceptions. The strongest levels of public concern over time have focussed on waste management, and in this area illustrates most clearly the gaps between the assessments of the technical community and those of the publics. In order to understand such gaps, a theoretical framework is necessary. The broadest scope for such a framework is found in the I.I.A.S.A. - I.A.E.A. model developed by H.J. Otway, with its three interrelated components of risk estimation (technical), risk evaluation (public) and risk management. The model is described in this paper, as well as a number of empirical studies that derive from it and attempt to measure public perceptions of risks. These studies are then compared to several alternative explanations: the use of public opinion surveys; risk rating tasks based on psychologicl theory; the structure of arguments used by members of the public in qualitative focus group discussions; and a model of local community conflict derived from the content analysis of newspapers. Throughout the discussion, examples are taken wherever possible, from recent Canadian studies, in which the effects of major incidents (such as T.M.I., the Mississauga derailment, the Blind River refinery siting controversy, etc.) become apparent. It is suggested that our understanding of public perceptions of risks cannot be divorced from the set of broad societal concerns evidenced in the I.I.A.S.A. - I.A.E.A. model, and that the crucial elements of this approach are seen in its emphasis on the decision-making process

  1. Asset backed securities : risks, ratings and quantitative modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jönsson, B.H.B.; Schoutens, W.

    2009-01-01

    Asset backed securities (ABSs) are structured finance products backed by pools of assets and are created through a securitisation process. The risks in asset backed securities, such as, credit risk, prepayment risk, market risks, operational risk, and legal risks, are directly connected with the

  2. A Framework for Understanding Uncertainty in Seismic Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foulser-Piggott, Roxane; Bowman, Gary; Hughes, Martin

    2017-10-11

    A better understanding of the uncertainty that exists in models used for seismic risk assessment is critical to improving risk-based decisions pertaining to earthquake safety. Current models estimating the probability of collapse of a building do not consider comprehensively the nature and impact of uncertainty. This article presents a model framework to enhance seismic risk assessment and thus gives decisionmakers a fuller understanding of the nature and limitations of the estimates. This can help ensure that risks are not over- or underestimated and the value of acquiring accurate data is appreciated fully. The methodology presented provides a novel treatment of uncertainties in input variables, their propagation through the model, and their effect on the results. The study presents ranges of possible annual collapse probabilities for different case studies on buildings in different parts of the world, exposed to different levels of seismicity, and with different vulnerabilities. A global sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the significance of uncertain variables. Two key outcomes are (1) that the uncertainty in ground-motion conversion equations has the largest effect on the uncertainty in the calculation of annual collapse probability; and (2) the vulnerability of a building appears to have an effect on the range of annual collapse probabilities produced, i.e., the level of uncertainty in the estimate of annual collapse probability, with less vulnerable buildings having a smaller uncertainty. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  3. Use of quantitative uncertainty analysis for human health risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duncan, F.L.W.; Gordon, J.W.; Kelly, M.

    1994-01-01

    Current human health risk assessment method for environmental risks typically use point estimates of risk accompanied by qualitative discussions of uncertainty. Alternatively, Monte Carlo simulations may be used with distributions for input parameters to estimate the resulting risk distribution and descriptive risk percentiles. These two techniques are applied for the ingestion of 1,1=dichloroethene in ground water. The results indicate that Monte Carlo simulations provide significantly more information for risk assessment and risk management than do point estimates

  4. Preparing for local adaptation: Understanding flood risk perceptions in Pittsburgh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong-Parodi, G.; Klima, K.

    2016-12-01

    In cities such as Pittsburgh, aging and insufficient infrastructure contributes to flashfloods and numerous combined sewer overflows annually, contaminating streets, basements and waterways. Climate change is expected to further exacerbate this problem by causing more intense and more frequent extreme events in Western Pennsylvania. For a storm water adaptation plan to be implemented successfully, the City of Pittsburgh will need informed public support. One way to achieve public understanding and support is through effective communication of the risks, benefits, and uncertainties of local flooding hazards and adaptation methods. In order to develop risk communications effectively, the City and its partners will need to know what knowledge and attitudes the residents of Pittsburgh already hold about flood risks. To that end we surveyed 1,376 Pittsburgh residents on a variety of flood risk topics through an online or paper survey in Fall 2015. On balance, residents were relatively knowledgeable about storm water and see the City's current infrastructure as being inadequate to meet future risk. Moreover, they see the risk of runoff events as increasing and especially among those who live in hazardous flood areas. Residents expressed interest in having a dedicated fund to deal with runoff events. Among those queried about their willingness-to-pay, those asked to pay $15 were most interested in a dedicated fund and for green infrastructure (as opposed to gray infrastructure) in particular. Finally, while most residents favored green infrastructure in terms of its attractiveness and perceived affects on mitigating climate change many did not see it as effective at addressing flooding as gray infrastructure. We found people understand the risk and are open to doing something about it. However, more guidance and information on appropriate ways to adapt locally in terms that make sense to residents could enhance informed support for adaptation measures.

  5. Communicating quantitative risks and benefits in promotional prescription drug labeling or print advertising.

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, Suzanne L; Squiers, Linda B; McCormack, Lauren; Southwell, Brian G; Brouwer, Emily S; Ashok, Mahima; Lux, Linda; Boudewyns, Vanessa; O'Donoghue, Amie; Sullivan, Helen W

    2013-05-01

    Under the Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act, all promotional materials for prescription drugs must strike a fair balance in presentation of risks and benefits. How to best present this information is not clear. We sought to determine if the presentation of quantitative risk and benefit information in drug advertising and labeling influences consumers', patients', and clinicians' information processing, knowledge, and behavior by assessing available empirical evidence. We used PubMed for a literature search, limiting to articles published in English from 1990 forward. Two reviewers independently reviewed the titles and abstracts for inclusion, after which we reviewed the full texts to determine if they communicated risk/benefit information either: (i) numerically (e.g., percent) versus non-numerically (e.g., using text such as "increased risk") or (ii) numerically using different formats (e.g., "25% of patients", "one in four patients", or use of pictographs). We abstracted information from included articles into standardized evidence tables. The research team identified a total of 674 relevant publications, of which 52 met our inclusion criteria. Of these, 37 focused on drugs. Presenting numeric information appears to improve understanding of risks and benefits relative to non-numeric presentation; presenting both numeric and non-numeric information when possible may be best practice. No single specific format or graphical approach emerged as consistently superior. Numeracy and health literacy also deserve more empirical attention as moderators. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  6. Quantitative Deficits of Preschool Children at Risk for Mathematical Learning Disability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felicia W. Chu

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The study tested the hypothesis that acuity of the potentially inherent approximate number system (ANS contributes to risk of mathematical learning disability (MLD. Sixty-eight (35 boys preschoolers at risk for school failure were assessed on a battery of quantitative tasks, and on intelligence, executive control, preliteracy skills, and parental education. Mathematics achievement scores at the end of one year of preschool indicated that 34 of these children were at high risk for MLD. Relative to the 34 typically achieving children, the at risk children were less accurate on the ANS task, and a one standard deviation deficit on this task resulted in a 2.4 fold increase in the odds of MLD status. The at risk children also had a poor understanding of ordinal relations, and had slower learning of Arabic numerals, number words, and their cardinal values. Poor performance on these tasks resulted in 3.6 to 4.5 fold increases in the odds of MLD status. The results provide some support for the ANS hypothesis but also suggest these deficits are not the primary source of poor mathematics learning.

  7. Understanding operational risk capital approximations: First and second orders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gareth W. Peters

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available We set the context for capital approximation within the framework of the Basel II / III regulatory capital accords. This is particularly topical as the Basel III accord is shortly due to take effect. In this regard, we provide a summary of the role of capital adequacy in the new accord, highlighting along the way the significant loss events that have been attributed to the Operational Risk class that was introduced in the Basel II and III accords. Then we provide a semi-tutorial discussion on the modelling aspects of capital estimation under a Loss Distributional Approach (LDA. Our emphasis is to focuss on the important loss processes with regard to those that contribute most to capital, the so called “high consequence, low frequency" loss processes. This leads us to provide a tutorial overview of heavy tailed loss process modelling in OpRisk under Basel III, with discussion on the implications of such tail assumptions for the severity model in an LDA structure. This provides practitioners with a clear understanding of the features that they may wish to consider when developing OpRisk severity models in practice. From this discussion on heavy tailed severity models, we then develop an understanding of the impact such models have on the right tail asymptotics of the compound loss process and we provide detailed presentation of what are known as first and second order tail approximations for the resulting heavy tailed loss process. From this we develop a tutorial on three key families of risk measures and their equivalent second order asymptotic approximations: Value-at-Risk (Basel III industry standard; Expected Shortfall (ES and the Spectral Risk Measure. These then form the capital approximations. We then provide a few example case studies to illustrate the accuracy of these asymptotic captial approximations, the rate of the convergence of the assymptotic result as a function of the LDA frequency and severity model parameters, the sensitivity

  8. Quantitative Risk reduction estimation Tool For Control Systems, Suggested Approach and Research Needs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miles McQueen; Wayne Boyer; Mark Flynn; Sam Alessi

    2006-03-01

    For the past year we have applied a variety of risk assessment technologies to evaluate the risk to critical infrastructure from cyber attacks on control systems. More recently, we identified the need for a stand alone control system risk reduction estimation tool to provide owners and operators of control systems with a more useable, reliable, and credible method for managing the risks from cyber attack. Risk is defined as the probability of a successful attack times the value of the resulting loss, typically measured in lives and dollars. Qualitative and ad hoc techniques for measuring risk do not provide sufficient support for cost benefit analyses associated with cyber security mitigation actions. To address the need for better quantitative risk reduction models we surveyed previous quantitative risk assessment research; evaluated currently available tools; developed new quantitative techniques [17] [18]; implemented a prototype analysis tool to demonstrate how such a tool might be used; used the prototype to test a variety of underlying risk calculational engines (e.g. attack tree, attack graph); and identified technical and research needs. We concluded that significant gaps still exist and difficult research problems remain for quantitatively assessing the risk to control system components and networks, but that a useable quantitative risk reduction estimation tool is not beyond reach.

  9. Quantitative Understanding on the Amplitude Decay Characteristic of the Evanescent Electromagnetic Waves Generated by Seismoelectric Conversion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Hengxin; Huang, Qinghua; Chen, Xiaofei

    2018-03-01

    We conduct numerical simulations and theoretical analyses to quantitatively study the amplitude decay characteristic of the evanescent electromagnetic (EM) waves, which has been neglected in previous studies on the seismoelectric conversion occurring at a porous-porous interface. Time slice snapshots of seismic and EM wave-fields generated by a vertical single force point source in a two-layer porous model show that evanescent EM waves can be induced at a porous-porous interface. The seismic and EM wave-fields computed for a receiver array located in a vertical line nearby the interface are investigated in detail. In addition to the direct and interface-response radiation EM waves, we identify three groups of coseismic EM fields and evanescent EM waves associated with the direct P, refracted SV-P and direct SV waves, respectively. Thereafter, we derive the mathematical expression of the amplitude decay factor of the evanescent EM waves. This mathematical expression is further validated by our numerical simulations. It turns out the amplitude decay of the evanescent EM waves generated by seismoelectric conversion is greatly dependent on the horizontal wavenumber of seismic waves. It is also found the evanescent EM waves have a higher detectability at a lower frequency range. This work provides a better understanding on the EM wave-fields generated by seismoelectric conversion, which probably will help improve the interpretation of the seismoelectric coupling phenomena associated with natural earthquakes or possibly will inspire some new ideas on the application of the seismoelectric coupling effect.

  10. Challenges of Interdisciplinary Research: Reconciling Qualitative and Quantitative Methods for Understanding Human-Landscape Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lach, Denise

    2014-01-01

    While interdisciplinary research is increasingly practiced as a way to transcend the limitations of individual disciplines, our concepts, and methods are primarily rooted in the disciplines that shape the way we think about the world and how we conduct research. While natural and social scientists may share a general understanding of how science is conducted, disciplinary differences in methodologies quickly emerge during interdisciplinary research efforts. This paper briefly introduces and reviews different philosophical underpinnings of quantitative and qualitative methodological approaches and introduces the idea that a pragmatic, realistic approach may allow natural and social scientists to work together productively. While realism assumes that there is a reality that exists independently of our perceptions, the work of scientists is to explore the mechanisms by which actions cause meaningful outcomes and the conditions under which the mechanisms can act. Our task as interdisciplinary researchers is to use the insights of our disciplines in the context of the problem to co-produce an explanation for the variables of interest. Research on qualities necessary for successful interdisciplinary researchers is also discussed along with recent efforts by funding agencies and academia to increase capacities for interdisciplinary research.

  11. Towards a quantitative understanding of oxygen tension and cell density evolution in fibrin hydrogels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demol, Jan; Lambrechts, Dennis; Geris, Liesbet; Schrooten, Jan; Van Oosterwyck, Hans

    2011-01-01

    The in vitro culture of hydrogel-based constructs above a critical size is accompanied by problems of unequal cell distribution when diffusion is the primary mode of oxygen transfer. In this study, an experimentally-informed mathematical model was developed to relate cell proliferation and death inside fibrin hydrogels to the local oxygen tension in a quantitative manner. The predictive capacity of the resulting model was tested by comparing its outcomes to the density, distribution and viability of human periosteum derived cells (hPDCs) that were cultured inside fibrin hydrogels in vitro. The model was able to reproduce important experimental findings, such as the formation of a multilayered cell sheet at the hydrogel periphery and the occurrence of a cell density gradient throughout the hydrogel. In addition, the model demonstrated that cell culture in fibrin hydrogels can lead to complete anoxia in the centre of the hydrogel for realistic values of oxygen diffusion and consumption. A sensitivity analysis also identified these two parameters, together with the proliferation parameters of the encapsulated cells, as the governing parameters for the occurrence of anoxia. In conclusion, this study indicates that mathematical models can help to better understand oxygen transport limitations and its influence on cell behaviour during the in vitro culture of cell-seeded hydrogels. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Quantitative risk assessment: an emerging tool for emerging foodborne pathogens.

    OpenAIRE

    Lammerding, A. M.; Paoli, G. M.

    1997-01-01

    New challenges to the safety of the food supply require new strategies for evaluating and managing food safety risks. Changes in pathogens, food preparation, distribution, and consumption, and population immunity have the potential to adversely affect human health. Risk assessment offers a framework for predicting the impact of changes and trends on the provision of safe food. Risk assessment models facilitate the evaluation of active or passive changes in how foods are produced, processed, d...

  13. Quantitative risk analysis in two pipelines operated by TRANSPETRO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia, Claudio B. [PETROBRAS Transporte S/A (TRANSPETRO), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Pinho, Edson [Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro (UFRRJ), Seropedica, RJ (Brazil); Bittencourt, Euclides [Centro Universitario FIB, Salvador , BA (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Transportation risk analysis techniques were used to study two pipelines operated by TRANSPETRO. The Pipeline A is for the simultaneous transportation of diesel, gasoline and LPG and comprises three parts, all of them crossing rural areas. The Pipeline B is for oil transportation and one of its ends is located in an area of a high density population. Both pipelines had their risk studied using the PHAST RISK{sup R} software and the individual risk measures, the only considered measures for license purposes for this type of studies, presented level far below the maximum tolerable levels considered. (author)

  14. Quantitative analysis of precipitation over Fukushima to understand the wet deposition process in March 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yatagai, A.; Onda, Y.; Watanabe, A.

    2012-04-01

    The Great East Japan Earthquake caused a severe accident at the Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear power plant (NPP), leading to the emission of large amounts of radioactive pollutants into the environment. The transport and diffusion of these radioactive pollutants in the atmosphere caused a disaster for residents in and around Fukushima. Studies have sought to understand the transport, diffusion, and deposition process, and to understand the movement of radioactive pollutants through the soil, vegetation, rivers, and groundwater. However, a detailed simulation and understanding of the distribution of radioactive compounds depend on a simulation of precipitation and on the information on the timing of the emission of these radioactive pollutants from the NPP. Past nuclear expansion studies have demonstrated the importance of wet deposition in distributing pollutants. Hence, this study examined the quantitative precipitation pattern in March 2011 using rain-gauge observations and X-band radar data from Fukushima University. We used the AMeDAS rain-gauge network data of 1) the Japan Meteorological Agency (1273 stations in Japan) and 2) the Water Information System (47 stations in Fukushima prefecture) and 3) the rain-gauge data of the Environmental Information Network of NTT Docomo (30 stations in Fukushima) to construct 0.05-degree mesh data using the same method used to create the APHRODITE daily grid precipitation data (Yatagai et al., 2009). Since some AMeDAS data for the coastal region were lost due to the earthquake, the complementary network of 2) and 3) yielded better precipitation estimates. The data clarified that snowfall was observed on the night of Mar 15 into the morning of Mar 16 throughout Fukushima prefecture. This had an important effect on the radioactive contamination pattern in Fukushima prefecture. The precipitation pattern itself does not show one-on-one correspondence with the contamination pattern. While the pollutants transported northeast of the

  15. Toward Quantitative Understanding of the Atmospheric Heating over the Tibetan Plateau (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koike, T.; Tamura, T.; Rasmy, M.; Seto, R.

    2010-12-01

    contradictory to the Taniguchi and Koike [2007]. The mechanism of the upper tropospheric warming is investigated using the climatology derived from the reanalysis data. Heat budget analysis of the upper troposphere revealed adiabatic subsidence plays an important role for the temperature increase from late April to mid-June. The adiabatic heating is suggested to be derived from the southerly and westerly component of the upper tropospheric circulation. Tamura, Taniguchi and Koike [2009]. To get more quantitative understanding of the atmospheric heating over the Tibetan Plateau, a satellite-based land data assimilation system coupled with a regional atmospheric model was developed.. The result of the system validation for the land surface fluxes and atmospheric parameters shows better consistency with the observed data. The role of land surface on the atmospheric heating can be quantitatively analyzed.

  16. Quantitative relationships between aging failure data and risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vesely, W.E.; Vora, J.P.

    1988-01-01

    As part of the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Nuclear Plant Aging Research program, a project is being carried out to quantify the risk effects of aging. The project is called the Risk Evaluation of Aging Phenomena (REAP) Project. With the REAP Project, a procedure has been developed to quantify nuclear power plant risks from aging failure data. The procedure utilizes the linear aging model and its extensions in order to relate component aging failure rates to aging mechanism parameters which are estimable from failure and maintenance data. The aging failure rates can then be used to quantify the age dependent plant risks, such as system unavailabilities, core melt frequency and public health risks. The REAP procedure is different from standard time dependent approaches in that the failure rates are phenomenologically based, allowing engineering information to be utilized. Furthermore, gross data and incomplete data can be utilized. A software package has been developed which systematically analyzes data for aging effects and interfaces with a time dependent risk analysis module to determine the risk implications of the aging effects. (author). 10 refs, 10 figs

  17. 76 FR 77543 - Quantitative Summary of the Benefits and Risks of Prescription Drugs: A Literature Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-13

    ... psychology'' (section 3507(b), Pub. L. 111-148, 124 Stat. 530), and to consult manufacturers and consumers... communication of quantitative benefit and risk information. FDA is making available the literature review report...

  18. A quantitative risk-based model for reasoning over critical system properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feather, M. S.

    2002-01-01

    This position paper suggests the use of a quantitative risk-based model to help support reeasoning and decision making that spans many of the critical properties such as security, safety, survivability, fault tolerance, and real-time.

  19. A quantitative framework for estimating risk of collision between marine mammals and boats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Julien; Sabatier, Quentin; Gowan, Timothy A.; Giraud, Christophe; Gurarie, Eliezer; Calleson, Scott; Ortega-Ortiz, Joel G.; Deutsch, Charles J.; Rycyk, Athena; Koslovsky, Stacie M.

    2016-01-01

    Speed regulations of watercraft in protected areas are designed to reduce lethal collisions with wildlife but can have economic consequences. We present a quantitative framework for investigating the risk of deadly collisions between boats and wildlife.

  20. Using integrated environmental modeling to automate a process-based Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM) organizes multidisciplinary knowledge that explains and predicts environmental-system response to stressors. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is an approach integrating a range of disparate data (fate/transport, exposure, an...

  1. Using Integrated Environmental Modeling to Automate a Process-Based Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (presentation)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM) organizes multidisciplinary knowledge that explains and predicts environmental-system response to stressors. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is an approach integrating a range of disparate data (fate/transport, exposure, and...

  2. Quantitative risk assessment using the capacity-demand analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morgenroth, M.; Donnelly, C.R.; Westermann, G.D.; Huang, J.H.S.; Lam, T.M.

    1999-01-01

    The hydroelectric industry's recognition of the importance of avoiding unexpected failure, or forced outages, led to the development of probabilistic, or risk-based, methods in order to attempt to quantify exposures. Traditionally, such analysis has been carried out by qualitative assessments, relying on experience and sound engineering judgment to determine the optimum time to maintain, repair or replace a part or system. Depending on the nature of the problem, however, and the level of experience of those included in the decision making process, it is difficult to find a balance between acting proactively and accepting some amount of risk. The development of a practical means for establishing the probability of failure of any part or system, based on the determination of the statistical distribution of engineering properties such as acting stresses, is discussed. The capacity-demand analysis methodology, coupled with probablistic, risk-based analysis, permits all the factors associated with a decision to rehabilitate or replace a part, including the risks associated with the timing of the decision, to be assessed in a transparent and defendable manner. The methodology does not eliminate judgment altogether, but does move it from the level of estimating the risk of failure to the lower level of estimating variability in material properties, uncertainty in loading, and the uncertainties inherent in any engineering analysis. The method was successfully used in 1998 to carry out a comprehensive, economic risk analysis for the entire water conveyance system of a 90 year old hydropower station. The analysis included a number of diverse parts ranging from rock slopes and aging steel and concrete conduits, and the method allowed a rational assessment of the risks associated with reach of these varied parts to be determined, permitting the essential remedial works to be prioritized. 14 refs., 4 figs

  3. 77 FR 41985 - Use of Influenza Disease Models To Quantitatively Evaluate the Benefits and Risks of Vaccines: A...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-07-17

    ... models to generate quantitative estimates of the benefits and risks of influenza vaccination. The public...] Use of Influenza Disease Models To Quantitatively Evaluate the Benefits and Risks of Vaccines: A... Influenza Disease Models to Quantitatively Evaluate the Benefits and Risks of Vaccines: A Technical Workshop...

  4. Risk Perception as the Quantitative Parameter of Ethics and Responsibility in Disaster Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kostyuchenko, Yuriy; Movchan, Dmytro

    2014-05-01

    Intensity of impacts of natural disasters is increasing with climate and ecological changes spread. Frequency of disasters is increasing, and recurrence of catastrophes characterizing by essential spatial heterogeneity. Distribution of losses is fundamentally non-linear and reflects complex interrelation of natural, social and environmental factor in the changing world on multi scale range. We faced with new types of risks, which require a comprehensive security concept. Modern understanding of complex security, and complex risk management require analysis of all natural and social phenomena, involvement of all available data, constructing of advanced analytical tools, and transformation of our perception of risk and security issues. Traditional deterministic models used for risk analysis are difficult applicable for analysis of social issues, as well as for analysis of multi scale multi-physics phenomena quantification. Also parametric methods are not absolutely effective because the system analyzed is essentially non-ergodic. The stochastic models of risk analysis are applicable for quantitative analysis of human behavior and risk perception. In framework of risk analysis models the risk perception issues were described. Risk is presented as the superposition of distribution (f(x,y)) and damage functions (p(x,y)): P →δΣ x,yf(x,y)p(x,y). As it was shown risk perception essentially influents to the damage function. Basing on the prospect theory and decision making under uncertainty on cognitive bias and handling of risk, modification of damage function is proposed: p(x,y|α(t)). Modified damage function includes an awareness function α(t), which is the system of risk perception function (rp) and function of education and log-term experience (c) as: α(t) → (c - rp). Education function c(t) describes the trend of education and experience. Risk perception function rp reflects security concept of human behavior, is the basis for prediction of socio-economic and

  5. EFFICIENT QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT OF JUMP PROCESSES: IMPLICATIONS FOR FOOD SAFETY

    OpenAIRE

    Nganje, William E.

    1999-01-01

    This paper develops a dynamic framework for efficient quantitative risk assessment from the simplest general risk, combining three parameters (contamination, exposure, and dose response) in a Kataoka safety-first model and a Poisson probability representing the uncertainty effect or jump processes associated with food safety. Analysis indicates that incorporating jump processes in food safety risk assessment provides more efficient cost/risk tradeoffs. Nevertheless, increased margin of safety...

  6. Information Risk Management: Qualitative or Quantitative? Cross industry lessons from medical and financial fields

    OpenAIRE

    Upasna Saluja; Norbik Bashah Idris

    2012-01-01

    Enterprises across the world are taking a hard look at their risk management practices. A number of qualitative and quantitative models and approaches are employed by risk practitioners to keep risk under check. As a norm most organizations end up choosing the more flexible, easier to deploy and customize qualitative models of risk assessment. In practice one sees that such models often call upon the practitioners to make qualitative judgments on a relative rating scale which brings in consid...

  7. Quantitative acid-base physiology using the Stewart model. Does it improve our understanding of what is really wrong?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Derksen, R.; Scheffer, G.J.; Hoeven, J.G. van der

    2006-01-01

    Traditional theories of acid-base balance are based on the Henderson-Hasselbalch equation to calculate proton concentration. The recent revival of quantitative acid-base physiology using the Stewart model has increased our understanding of complicated acid-base disorders, but has also led to several

  8. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for in Natural and Processed Cheeses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heeyoung Lee

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluated the risk of Clostridium perfringens (C. perfringens foodborne illness from natural and processed cheeses. Microbial risk assessment in this study was conducted according to four steps: hazard identification, hazard characterization, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. The hazard identification of C. perfringens on cheese was identified through literature, and dose response models were utilized for hazard characterization of the pathogen. For exposure assessment, the prevalence of C. perfringens, storage temperatures, storage time, and annual amounts of cheese consumption were surveyed. Eventually, a simulation model was developed using the collected data and the simulation result was used to estimate the probability of C. perfringens foodborne illness by cheese consumption with @RISK. C. perfringens was determined to be low risk on cheese based on hazard identification, and the exponential model (r = 1.82×10−11 was deemed appropriate for hazard characterization. Annual amounts of natural and processed cheese consumption were 12.40±19.43 g and 19.46±14.39 g, respectively. Since the contamination levels of C. perfringens on natural (0.30 Log CFU/g and processed cheeses (0.45 Log CFU/g were below the detection limit, the initial contamination levels of natural and processed cheeses were estimated by beta distribution (α1 = 1, α2 = 91; α1 = 1, α2 = 309×uniform distribution (a = 0, b = 2; a = 0, b = 2.8 to be −2.35 and −2.73 Log CFU/g, respectively. Moreover, no growth of C. perfringens was observed for exposure assessment to simulated conditions of distribution and storage. These data were used for risk characterization by a simulation model, and the mean values of the probability of C. perfringens foodborne illness by cheese consumption per person per day for natural and processed cheeses were 9.57×10−14 and 3.58×10−14, respectively. These results indicate that probability of C. perfringens

  9. Quantitative Experimental Determination of Primer-Dimer Formation Risk by Free-Solution Conjugate Electrophoresis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desmarais, Samantha M.; Leitner, Thomas; Barron, Annelise E.

    2012-01-01

    DNA barcodes are short, unique ssDNA primers that “mark” individual biomolecules. To gain better understanding of biophysical parameters constraining primer-dimer formation between primers that incorporate barcode sequences, we have developed a capillary electrophoresis method that utilizes drag-tag-DNA conjugates to quantify dimerization risk between primer-barcode pairs. Results obtained with this unique free-solution conjugate electrophoresis (FSCE) approach are useful as quantitatively precise input data to parameterize computation models of dimerization risk. A set of fluorescently labeled, model primer-barcode conjugates were designed with complementary regions of differing lengths to quantify heterodimerization as a function of temperature. Primer-dimer cases comprised two 30-mer primers, one of which was covalently conjugated to a lab-made, chemically synthesized poly-N-methoxyethylglycine drag-tag, which reduced electrophoretic mobility of ssDNA to distinguish it from ds primer-dimers. The drag-tags also provided a shift in mobility for the dsDNA species, which allowed us to quantitate primer-dimer formation. In the experimental studies, pairs of oligonucleotide primer-barcodes with fully or partially complementary sequences were annealed, and then separated by free-solution conjugate CE at different temperatures, to assess effects on primer-dimer formation. When less than 30 out of 30 basepairs were bonded, dimerization was inversely correlated to temperature. Dimerization occurred when more than 15 consecutive basepairs formed, yet non-consecutive basepairs did not create stable dimers even when 20 out of 30 possible basepairs bonded. The use of free-solution electrophoresis in combination with a peptoid drag-tag and different fluorophores enabled precise separation of short DNA fragments to establish a new mobility shift assay for detection of primer-dimer formation. PMID:22331820

  10. A Quantitative Risk Analysis of Deficient Contractor Business System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-04-30

    Mathematically , Jorion’s concept of VaR looks like this: ( > ) ≤ 1 − (2) where, = ^Åèìáëáíáçå=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=éêçÖê~ãW= `êÉ~íáåÖ=póåÉêÖó=Ñçê=fåÑçêãÉÇ=ÅÜ...presents three models for calculating VaR. The local-valuation method determines the value of a portfolio once and uses mathematical derivatives...management. In the insurance industry, actuarial data is applied to model risk and risk capital reserves are “held” to cover the expected values for

  11. Quantitative Risk Modeling of Fire on the International Space Station

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castillo, Theresa; Haught, Megan

    2014-01-01

    The International Space Station (ISS) Program has worked to prevent fire events and to mitigate their impacts should they occur. Hardware is designed to reduce sources of ignition, oxygen systems are designed to control leaking, flammable materials are prevented from flying to ISS whenever possible, the crew is trained in fire response, and fire response equipment improvements are sought out and funded. Fire prevention and mitigation are a top ISS Program priority - however, programmatic resources are limited; thus, risk trades are made to ensure an adequate level of safety is maintained onboard the ISS. In support of these risk trades, the ISS Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) team has modeled the likelihood of fire occurring in the ISS pressurized cabin, a phenomenological event that has never before been probabilistically modeled in a microgravity environment. This paper will discuss the genesis of the ISS PRA fire model, its enhancement in collaboration with fire experts, and the results which have informed ISS programmatic decisions and will continue to be used throughout the life of the program.

  12. A suite of models to support the quantitative assessment of spread in pest risk analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Robinet, C.; Kehlenbeck, H.; Werf, van der W.

    2012-01-01

    In the frame of the EU project PRATIQUE (KBBE-2007-212459 Enhancements of pest risk analysis techniques) a suite of models was developed to support the quantitative assessment of spread in pest risk analysis. This dataset contains the model codes (R language) for the four models in the suite. Three

  13. Develop a quantitative understanding of rockmass behaviour near excavations in deep mines, part 1

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Napier, JAL

    1995-12-01

    Full Text Available Control of the rock mass deformation near deep level stopes and the avoidance of damaging incidents of violent rock failure require a fundamental understanding of rock failure mechanisms. Research work to gain this understanding has been undertaken...

  14. Comparison of Qualitative and Quantitative Risk Results for Shutdown Operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oh, Hae Cheol; Kim, Myung Ki; Chung, Bag Soon; Seo, Mi Ro; Hong, Sung Yull

    2006-01-01

    The Defense-In-Depth philosophy is a fundamental concept of nuclear safety. The objective of Defense-In- Depth (DID) evaluation is to assess the level of Defense- In-Depth maintained during the various plant maintenance activities. Especially for shutdown and outage operations, the Defense-In-Depth might be challenged due to the reduction in redundancy and diversity resulting from the maintenance. The qualitative defense-in-depth evaluation using deterministic trees such as SFAT (Safety Function Assessment Tree), can provide 'Safety' related information on the levels of defense-in-depth according to the plant configuration including the levels of redundancy and diversity. For the more reasonable color decision of SFAT, it is necessary to identify the risk impact of degradation of redundancy and diversity of mitigation systems. The probabilistic safety analysis for the shutdown status can provide risk information related on the degradation of redundancy and diversity level for the safety functions during outage. Insights from the both methods for the plant status can be the same or different. The results of DID approach and PSA for the shutdown state are compared in this paper

  15. Understanding gaps between the risk perceptions of wildland-urban interface (WUI) residents and wildfire professionals

    Science.gov (United States)

    James R. Meldrum; Patricia A. Champ; Hannah Brenkert-Smith; Travis Warziniack; Christopher M. Barth; Lilia C. Falk

    2015-01-01

    Research across a variety of risk domains finds that the risk perceptions of professionals and the public differ. Such risk perception gaps occur if professionals and the public understand individual risk factors differently or if they aggregate risk factors into overall risk differently. The nature of such divergences, whether based on objective inaccuracies or on...

  16. Laypersons' understanding of relative risk reductions: Randomised cross-sectional study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristiansen Ivar S

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Despite increasing recognition of the importance of involving patients in decisions on preventive healthcare interventions, little is known about how well patients understand and utilise information provided on the relative benefits from these interventions. The aim of this study was to explore whether lay people can discriminate between preventive interventions when effectiveness is presented in terms of relative risk reduction (RRR, and whether such discrimination is influenced by presentation of baseline risk. Methods The study was a randomised cross-sectional interview survey of a representative sample (n = 1,519 of lay people with mean age 59 (range 40–98 years in Denmark. In addition to demographic information, respondents were asked to consider a hypothetical drug treatment to prevent heart attack. Its effectiveness was randomly presented as RRR of 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 or 60 percent, and half of the respondents were presented with quantitative information on the baseline risk of heart attack. The respondents had also been asked whether they were diagnosed with hypercholesterolemia or had experienced a heart attack. Results In total, 873 (58% of the respondents consented to the hypothetical treatment. While 49% accepted the treatment when RRR = 10%, the acceptance rate was 58–60% for RRR>10. There was no significant difference in acceptance rates across respondents irrespective of whether they had been presented with quantitative information on baseline risk or not. Conclusion In this study, lay people's decisions about therapy were only slightly influenced by the magnitude of the effect when it was presented in terms of RRR. The results may indicate that lay people have difficulties in discriminating between levels of effectiveness when they are presented in terms of RRR.

  17. Modeling the risk: innovative approaches to understand and quantify the risk of severe FB injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berchialla, Paola; Bellussi, Luisa; Castella, Annalisa; Snidero, Silvia; Passali, Desiderio; Gregori, Dario

    2012-05-14

    The entry of a small item into the respiratory or digestive tract is still one of the leading causes of injuries in children up to 14 years old. The aim of the paper is to provide a quantitative risk assessment analysis for identifying consumer product features which contribute to increase the risk of sustaining a severe injury. Data on foreign body injuries were collected in 28 European countries and one Pakistani hospital. A total of 7296 cases were classified according to ICD-9CM 931-935. Information about injuries included age and gender of the injured child, circumstances of the accident and foreign body features. A classification tree was set up in order to analyze the impact of the item features like volume shape and rigidity on the severity of the injury. Males are involved in severe injuries more often than females. Most severe injuries when the foreign body is localized in the ears were due to objects with volume lesser than 49 mm(3). Volume cut-off is slightly higher for foreign bodies that have been found in the nose (55 mm(3)). Objects with conforming rigidity pose children to higher risk of severe injury. The presence and supervision of an adult is crucial in reducing the risk for severe injuries both in pharynx and laryhnx and in mouth. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Comparison study on qualitative and quantitative risk assessment methods for urban natural gas pipeline network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Z Y; Weng, W G

    2011-05-15

    In this paper, a qualitative and a quantitative risk assessment methods for urban natural gas pipeline network are proposed. The qualitative method is comprised of an index system, which includes a causation index, an inherent risk index, a consequence index and their corresponding weights. The quantitative method consists of a probability assessment, a consequences analysis and a risk evaluation. The outcome of the qualitative method is a qualitative risk value, and for quantitative method the outcomes are individual risk and social risk. In comparison with previous research, the qualitative method proposed in this paper is particularly suitable for urban natural gas pipeline network, and the quantitative method takes different consequences of accidents into consideration, such as toxic gas diffusion, jet flame, fire ball combustion and UVCE. Two sample urban natural gas pipeline networks are used to demonstrate these two methods. It is indicated that both of the two methods can be applied to practical application, and the choice of the methods depends on the actual basic data of the gas pipelines and the precision requirements of risk assessment. Crown Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. The impact of risk communications on public understanding

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Connor, R.E.; Bord, R.J.

    1992-01-01

    This paper assesses the impact of different modes of communicating information about risks that are cumulative, uncertain, and long-term (CULT). Do communications that emphasize potential ecological problems have a different impact from messages that discuss health concerns? Is a more emotional style more effective than a traditional standard approach? CULT risks, including those commonly associated with high-level radioactive waste, pose particular problems for risk communicators. nevertheless, the research shows that relatively simple risk communications can effectively lower risk estimates and reduce fears of negative consequences from CULT risks

  20. Quantitative disease resistance: to better understand parasite-mediated selection on major histocompatibility complex.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westerdahl, Helena; Asghar, Muhammad; Hasselquist, Dennis; Bensch, Staffan

    2012-02-07

    We outline a descriptive framework of how candidate alleles of the immune system associate with infectious diseases in natural populations of animals. Three kinds of alleles can be separated when both prevalence of infection and infection intensity are measured--qualitative disease resistance, quantitative disease resistance and susceptibility alleles. Our descriptive framework demonstrates why alleles for quantitative resistance and susceptibility cannot be separated based on prevalence data alone, but are distinguishable on infection intensity. We then present a case study to evaluate a previous finding of a positive association between prevalence of a severe avian malaria infection (GRW2, Plasmodium ashfordi) and a major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class I allele (B4b) in great reed warblers Acrocephalus arundinaceus. Using the same dataset, we find that individuals with allele B4b have lower GRW2 infection intensities than individuals without this allele. Therefore, allele B4b provides quantitative resistance rather than increasing susceptibility to infection. This implies that birds carrying B4b can mount an immune response that suppresses the acute-phase GRW2 infection, while birds without this allele cannot and may die. We argue that it is important to determine whether MHC alleles related to infections are advantageous (quantitative and qualitative resistance) or disadvantageous (susceptibility) to obtain a more complete picture of pathogen-mediated balancing selection.

  1. Web Applications Vulnerability Management using a Quantitative Stochastic Risk Modeling Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergiu SECHEL

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this research is to propose a quantitative risk modeling method that reduces the guess work and uncertainty from the vulnerability and risk assessment activities of web based applications while providing users the flexibility to assess risk according to their risk appetite and tolerance with a high degree of assurance. The research method is based on the research done by the OWASP Foundation on this subject but their risk rating methodology needed de-bugging and updates in different in key areas that are presented in this paper. The modified risk modeling method uses Monte Carlo simulations to model risk characteristics that can’t be determined without guess work and it was tested in vulnerability assessment activities on real production systems and in theory by assigning discrete uniform assumptions to all risk charac-teristics (risk attributes and evaluate the results after 1.5 million rounds of Monte Carlo simu-lations.

  2. Understanding and reducing the risk of supply chain disruptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Graham

    2012-01-01

    Natural disasters can wreck havoc on business operations. When civil unrest swept the UK in August 2011, the effect on business was stark, losing the retail sector £300m in unexpected costs and lost revenues. On the other side of the world, the natural disaster that hit Japan in early 2011 is estimated to have run up costs in the region of £189bn in repairs. Beyond this, the earthquake and its aftermath shattered supply chains, with technology companies expecting delays of up to six months before business could resume fully. It is impossible to predict incidents like these, but businesses can help mitigate disruption in the supply chain by undertaking business continuity management (BCM). A flexible supply chain is essential when it comes to BCM - whether it means being able to cope with altering transport routes at short notice, or finding or replacing a supplier at the last minute. Understanding the supply chain is critical when responding to major impacts that affect supply chains in multiple points - like IT system failures and country-wide fuel strikes. Businesses should carry out detailed business impact assessments and risk assessments right across the end-to-end supply chain and not just at key single points of failure. It is an intensive process that needs dedicated resources and ownership at the highest level. Recognising this, DHL has designed a 10-step process, which it has implemented across its global supply chain business. This paper provides an overview of what a supply chain really looks like, what can cause disruptions and how far up/down the supply chain companies need to go with their BCM planning.

  3. Understanding the Puzzling Risk-Return Relationship for Housing

    OpenAIRE

    Lu Han

    2013-01-01

    Standard theory predicts a positive relationship between risk and return, yet recent data show that housing returns vary positively with risk in some markets but negatively in others. This paper rationalizes these cross-market differences in the risk-return relationship for housing, and in so doing, explains the puzzling negative relationship. The paper shows that when the current house provides a hedge against the risk associated with the future housing consumption, households are willing to...

  4. Genetic risk prediction and neurobiological understanding of alcoholism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levey, D F; Le-Niculescu, H; Frank, J; Ayalew, M; Jain, N; Kirlin, B; Learman, R; Winiger, E; Rodd, Z; Shekhar, A; Schork, N; Kiefer, F; Kiefe, F; Wodarz, N; Müller-Myhsok, B; Dahmen, N; Nöthen, M; Sherva, R; Farrer, L; Smith, A H; Kranzler, H R; Rietschel, M; Gelernter, J; Niculescu, A B

    2014-05-20

    -reactive animal model cross-validation. We also tested this small panel of genes in two other independent test cohorts from the United States, one with alcohol dependence (P=0.00012) and one with alcohol abuse (a less severe form of alcoholism; P=0.0094). SNCA by itself was able to separate alcoholics from controls in the alcohol-dependent cohort (P=0.000013) and the alcohol abuse cohort (P=0.023). So did eight other genes from the panel of 11 genes taken individually, albeit to a lesser extent and/or less broadly across cohorts. SNCA, GRM3 and MBP survived strict Bonferroni correction for multiple comparisons. Taken together, these results suggest that our stress-reactive DBP animal model helped to validate and prioritize from the CFG-discovered genes some of the key behaviorally relevant genes for alcoholism. These genes fall into a series of biological pathways involved in signal transduction, transmission of nerve impulse (including myelination) and cocaine addiction. Overall, our work provides leads towards a better understanding of illness, diagnostics and therapeutics, including treatment with omega-3 fatty acids. We also examined the overlap between the top candidate genes for alcoholism from this work and the top candidate genes for bipolar disorder, schizophrenia, anxiety from previous CFG analyses conducted by us, as well as cross-tested genetic risk predictions. This revealed the significant genetic overlap with other major psychiatric disorder domains, providing a basis for comorbidity and dual diagnosis, and placing alcohol use in the broader context of modulating the mental landscape.

  5. Quantitative Metrics and Risk Assessment: The Three Tenets Model of Cybersecurity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeff Hughes

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Progress in operational cybersecurity has been difficult to demonstrate. In spite of the considerable research and development investments made for more than 30 years, many government, industrial, financial, and consumer information systems continue to be successfully attacked and exploited on a routine basis. One of the main reasons that progress has been so meagre is that most technical cybersecurity solutions that have been proposed to-date have been point solutions that fail to address operational tradeoffs, implementation costs, and consequent adversary adaptations across the full spectrum of vulnerabilities. Furthermore, sound prescriptive security principles previously established, such as the Orange Book, have been difficult to apply given current system complexity and acquisition approaches. To address these issues, the authors have developed threat-based descriptive methodologies to more completely identify system vulnerabilities, to quantify the effectiveness of possible protections against those vulnerabilities, and to evaluate operational consequences and tradeoffs of possible protections. This article begins with a discussion of the tradeoffs among seemingly different system security properties such as confidentiality, integrity, and availability. We develop a quantitative framework for understanding these tradeoffs and the issues that arise when those security properties are all in play within an organization. Once security goals and candidate protections are identified, risk/benefit assessments can be performed using a novel multidisciplinary approach, called “QuERIES.” The article ends with a threat-driven quantitative methodology, called “The Three Tenets”, for identifying vulnerabilities and countermeasures in networked cyber-physical systems. The goal of this article is to offer operational guidance, based on the techniques presented here, for informed decision making about cyber-physical system security.

  6. A quantitative flood risk analysis methodology for urban areas with integration of social research data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Escuder-Bueno

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Risk analysis has become a top priority for authorities and stakeholders in many European countries, with the aim of reducing flooding risk, considering the population's needs and improving risk awareness. Within this context, two methodological pieces have been developed in the period 2009–2011 within the SUFRI project (Sustainable Strategies of Urban Flood Risk Management with non-structural measures to cope with the residual risk, 2nd ERA-Net CRUE Funding Initiative. First, the "SUFRI Methodology for pluvial and river flooding risk assessment in urban areas to inform decision-making" provides a comprehensive and quantitative tool for flood risk analysis. Second, the "Methodology for investigation of risk awareness of the population concerned" presents the basis to estimate current risk from a social perspective and identify tendencies in the way floods are understood by citizens. Outcomes of both methods are integrated in this paper with the aim of informing decision making on non-structural protection measures. The results of two case studies are shown to illustrate practical applications of this developed approach. The main advantage of applying the methodology herein presented consists in providing a quantitative estimation of flooding risk before and after investing in non-structural risk mitigation measures. It can be of great interest for decision makers as it provides rational and solid information.

  7. A quantitative flood risk analysis methodology for urban areas with integration of social research data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escuder-Bueno, I.; Castillo-Rodríguez, J. T.; Zechner, S.; Jöbstl, C.; Perales-Momparler, S.; Petaccia, G.

    2012-09-01

    Risk analysis has become a top priority for authorities and stakeholders in many European countries, with the aim of reducing flooding risk, considering the population's needs and improving risk awareness. Within this context, two methodological pieces have been developed in the period 2009-2011 within the SUFRI project (Sustainable Strategies of Urban Flood Risk Management with non-structural measures to cope with the residual risk, 2nd ERA-Net CRUE Funding Initiative). First, the "SUFRI Methodology for pluvial and river flooding risk assessment in urban areas to inform decision-making" provides a comprehensive and quantitative tool for flood risk analysis. Second, the "Methodology for investigation of risk awareness of the population concerned" presents the basis to estimate current risk from a social perspective and identify tendencies in the way floods are understood by citizens. Outcomes of both methods are integrated in this paper with the aim of informing decision making on non-structural protection measures. The results of two case studies are shown to illustrate practical applications of this developed approach. The main advantage of applying the methodology herein presented consists in providing a quantitative estimation of flooding risk before and after investing in non-structural risk mitigation measures. It can be of great interest for decision makers as it provides rational and solid information.

  8. Current Understanding of the Pathophysiology of Myocardial Fibrosis and Its Quantitative Assessment in Heart Failure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tong Liu

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Myocardial fibrosis is an important part of cardiac remodeling that leads to heart failure and death. Myocardial fibrosis results from increased myofibroblast activity and excessive extracellular matrix deposition. Various cells and molecules are involved in this process, providing targets for potential drug therapies. Currently, the main detection methods of myocardial fibrosis rely on serum markers, cardiac magnetic resonance imaging, and endomyocardial biopsy. This review summarizes our current knowledge regarding the pathophysiology, quantitative assessment, and novel therapeutic strategies of myocardial fibrosis.

  9. On how to define, understand and describe risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, Terje

    2010-01-01

    The prevailing perspectives and definitions of risk, at least in the engineering community, are based on probabilities. In this paper we argue that such perspectives and definitions are too narrow. The probability component of the risk concept should be replaced by uncertainty. By jumping directly into probabilities, important uncertainty aspects could easily be overlooked or truncated. In the paper we point at several extended risk definitions, and a formal structure for the various perspectives and definitions is developed. Fundamental concepts such as second-order probabilities and uncertainties are discussed. Examples are provided showing the importance of the choice of risk perspective in a risk assessment and decision-making context. The examples cover offshore operations, security and market price risks.

  10. Genetic risk prediction and neurobiological understanding of alcoholism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levey, D F; Le-Niculescu, H; Frank, J; Ayalew, M; Jain, N; Kirlin, B; Learman, R; Winiger, E; Rodd, Z; Shekhar, A; Schork, N; Kiefe, F; Wodarz, N; Müller-Myhsok, B; Dahmen, N; Nöthen, M; Sherva, R; Farrer, L; Smith, A H; Kranzler, H R; Rietschel, M; Gelernter, J; Niculescu, A B

    2014-01-01

    cohort (P=0.023). So did eight other genes from the panel of 11 genes taken individually, albeit to a lesser extent and/or less broadly across cohorts. SNCA, GRM3 and MBP survived strict Bonferroni correction for multiple comparisons. Taken together, these results suggest that our stress-reactive DBP animal model helped to validate and prioritize from the CFG-discovered genes some of the key behaviorally relevant genes for alcoholism. These genes fall into a series of biological pathways involved in signal transduction, transmission of nerve impulse (including myelination) and cocaine addiction. Overall, our work provides leads towards a better understanding of illness, diagnostics and therapeutics, including treatment with omega-3 fatty acids. We also examined the overlap between the top candidate genes for alcoholism from this work and the top candidate genes for bipolar disorder, schizophrenia, anxiety from previous CFG analyses conducted by us, as well as cross-tested genetic risk predictions. This revealed the significant genetic overlap with other major psychiatric disorder domains, providing a basis for comorbidity and dual diagnosis, and placing alcohol use in the broader context of modulating the mental landscape. PMID:24844177

  11. Develop a quantitative understanding of rockmass behaviour near excavations in deep mines, part 2

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Napier, JAL

    1995-12-01

    Full Text Available Modelling of failure processes in rock is an essential adjustment to the analysis of observations of underground rock fracturing. The identification of mechanisms of deformation represents a basic step in understanding of rock mass behaviour...

  12. Navigational Traffic Conflict Technique: A Proactive Approach to Quantitative Measurement of Collision Risks in Port Waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Debnath, Ashim Kumar; Chin, Hoong Chor

    Navigational safety analysis relying on collision statistics is often hampered because of the low number of observations. A promising alternative approach that overcomes this problem is proposed in this paper. By analyzing critical vessel interactions this approach proactively measures collision risk in port waters. The proposed method is illustrated for quantitative measurement of collision risks in Singapore port fairways, and validated by examining correlations between the measured risks with those perceived by pilots. This method is an ethically appealing alternative to the collision-based analysis for fast, reliable and effective safety assessment, thus possessing great potential for managing collision risks in port waters.

  13. Risky Business: Understanding Student Intellectual Risk Taking in Management Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dachner, Alison M.; Miguel, Rosanna F.; Patena, Rachel A.

    2017-01-01

    The demands of today's ever-changing work environment often require that employees engage in intellectual risk taking (IRT) by being resourceful, trying new things, and asking questions even at the risk of making a mistake or feeling inadequate. This research seeks to identify variables that increase student IRT. Controlling for individual…

  14. Diet and breast cancer: understanding risks and benefits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, Cynthia A

    2012-10-01

    Breast cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer among women in the United States. Extensive research has been completed to evaluate the relationship between dietary factors and breast cancer risk and survival after breast cancer; however, a summary report with clinical inference is needed. Materials and This review summarizes the current epidemiological and clinical trial evidence relating diet to breast cancer incidence, recurrence, survival, and mortality. The review includes emerging epidemiological studies that assess risk within breast cancer subtypes as well as a summary of previous and ongoing dietary intervention trials designed to modify breast cancer risk. The available literature suggests that both low-fat and high-fiber diets may be weakly protective against breast cancer, whereas total energy intake and alcohol appear to be positively associated. Fiber may be weakly protective possibly through modulation of estrogen, whereas fruit and vegetable intake is not clearly associated with risk. Obesity is a risk factor for postmenopausal disease, and adult weight gain should be avoided to reduce risk. In survivors, diet has the greatest potential influence on overall mortality rather than breast cancer-specific events. Diet is modestly associated with breast cancer risk; associations appear more pronounced for postmenopausal disease, and healthy choices after diagnosis and treatment likely support longevity more so than reduced risk for recurrent disease.

  15. Understanding Risk Tolerance and Building an Effective Safety Culture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loyd, David

    2018-01-01

    Estimates range from 65-90 percent of catastrophic mishaps are due to human error. NASA's human factors-related mishaps causes are estimated at approximately 75 percent. As much as we'd like to error-proof our work environment, even the most automated and complex technical endeavors require human interaction... and are vulnerable to human frailty. Industry and government are focusing not only on human factors integration into hazardous work environments, but also looking for practical approaches to cultivating a strong Safety Culture that diminishes risk. Industry and government organizations have recognized the value of monitoring leading indicators to identify potential risk vulnerabilities. NASA has adapted this approach to assess risk controls associated with hazardous, critical, and complex facilities. NASA's facility risk assessments integrate commercial loss control, OSHA (Occupational Safety and Health Administration) Process Safety, API (American Petroleum Institute) Performance Indicator Standard, and NASA Operational Readiness Inspection concepts to identify risk control vulnerabilities.

  16. Quantitative risk analysis for landslides ‒ Examples from Bíldudalur, NW-Iceland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Bell

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Although various methods to carry out quantitative landslide risk analyses are available, applications are still rare and mostly dependent on the occurrence of disasters. In Iceland, two catastrophic snow avalanches killed 34 people in 1995. As a consequence the Ministry of the Environment issued a new regulation on hazard zoning due to snow avalanches and landslides in 2000, which aims to prevent people living or working within the areas most at risk until 2010. The regulation requires to carry out landslide and snow avalanche risk analyses, however, a method to calculate landslide risk adopted to Icelandic conditions is still missing. Therefore, the ultimate goal of this study is to develop such a method for landslides, focussing on debris flows and rock falls and to test it in Bíldudalur, NW-Iceland. Risk analysis, beside risk evaluation and risk management, is part of the holistic concept of risk assessment. Within this study, risk analysis is considered only, focussing on the risks to life. To calculate landslide risk, the spatial and temporal probability of occurrence of potential damaging events, as well as the distribution of the elements at risk in space and time, considering also changing vulnerabilities, must be determined. Within this study, a new raster-based approach is developed. Thus, all existent vector data are transferred into raster data using a resolution of 1m x 1m. The specific attribute data are attributed to the grid cells, resulting in specific raster data layers for each input parameter. The calculation of the landslide risk follows a function of the input parameters hazard, damage potential of the elements at risk, vulnerability, probability of the spatial impact, probability of the temporal impact and probability of the seasonal occurrence. Finally, results are upscaled to a resolution of 20m x 20m and are presented as individual risk to life and object risk to life for each process. Within the quantitative

  17. Dating Violence among High-Risk Young Women: A Systematic Review Using Quantitative and Qualitative Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joly, Lauren E.; Connolly, Jennifer

    2016-01-01

    Our systematic review identified 21 quantitative articles and eight qualitative articles addressing dating violence among high risk young women. The groups of high-risk young women in this review include street-involved, justice-involved, pregnant or parenting, involved with Child Protective Services, and youth diagnosed with a mental health issue. Our meta-analysis of the quantitative articles indicated that 34% (CI = 0.24–0.45) of high-risk young women report that they have been victims of physical dating violence and 45% (CI = 0.31–0.61) of these young women report perpetrating physical dating violence. Significant moderator variables included questionnaire and timeframe. Meta-synthesis of the qualitative studies revealed that high-risk young women report perpetrating dating violence to gain power and respect, whereas women report becoming victims of dating violence due to increased vulnerability. PMID:26840336

  18. Dating Violence among High-Risk Young Women: A Systematic Review Using Quantitative and Qualitative Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lauren E. Joly

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Our systematic review identified 21 quantitative articles and eight qualitative articles addressing dating violence among high risk young women. The groups of high-risk young women in this review include street-involved, justice-involved, pregnant or parenting, involved with Child Protective Services, and youth diagnosed with a mental health issue. Our meta-analysis of the quantitative articles indicated that 34% (CI = 0.24–0.45 of high-risk young women report that they have been victims of physical dating violence and 45% (CI = 0.31–0.61 of these young women report perpetrating physical dating violence. Significant moderator variables included questionnaire and timeframe. Meta-synthesis of the qualitative studies revealed that high-risk young women report perpetrating dating violence to gain power and respect, whereas women report becoming victims of dating violence due to increased vulnerability.

  19. Understanding the real risks of changing employee benefit plans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kane, Jon; St Amour, Jeffrey

    2005-01-01

    In an environment of constant change, corporations are looking to alter employee benefits programs to make them more responsive to employee and business needs. A complete risk assessment process is the key to preparing for changes to employee benefits programs by providing employers with an analysis of cost savings against the potential negative ramifications of change. This article outlines the steps involved in a complete review of risk assessment. It then discusses how employers can develop successful change management communication strategies if, after conducting a risk assessment, employers decide to move forward with alterations to their employee benefits programs.

  20. Quantitative assessment of exposure and risk for three carcinogenics in long-standing pollution sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wichmann, H.E.; Wuppertal Univ.; Ihme, W.; Mekel, O.C.L.; Wuppertal Univ.

    1993-01-01

    The project attempts a quantitative assessment of risks for three carcinogenics that are common in sites of long-standing pollution. Benzo(a)pyrene stands for the group of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, cadmium for heavy metals, and benzene for volatile aromatic compounds. The report discusses the general fundamentals of exposure and risk assessment. The exposure model is described in detail and applied to the three test substances. (orig./MG) [de

  1. Quantitative Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-02-24

    design failure modes and effects analysis (DFMEA), (b) Fault Tree Analysis ( FTA ) for all essential functions listed in the Failure Definition and...subsystem reliability date from Accomplishment 3, completed (a) updated DFMEA, (b) updated FTA , (c) updated reliability and maintainability estimates, (d...www.gao.gov/assets/660/658615.pdf [4] Karen Richey. Update to GAO’s Cost Estimating Assessment Guide and Scheduling Guide (draft). GAO. Mar 2013

  2. Integrative Understanding of Familial Impulsivity, Early Adversity and Suicide Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Lima, Isabela M. M.; Malloy-Diniz, Leandro F.; de Miranda, Débora M.; Da Silva, Antônio G.; Neves, Fernando S.; Johnson, Sheri L.

    2017-01-01

    Introduction: Impulsivity is a core characteristic of bipolar disorder and it was observed as elevated in individuals with the disorder and in their relatives. Both impulsivity and history of maltreatment are risk factors for suicide attempts, however, these two key variables may not be independent, given the fact that parental impulsivity and associated social context could increase the risk of child maltreatment. In this study it was examined the association between the impulsivity of relat...

  3. A method of quantitative risk assessment for transmission pipeline carrying natural gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jo, Young-Do; Ahn, Bum Jong

    2005-01-01

    Regulatory authorities in many countries are moving away from prescriptive approaches for keeping natural gas pipelines safe. As an alternative, risk management based on a quantitative assessment is being considered to improve the level of safety. This paper focuses on the development of a simplified method for the quantitative risk assessment for natural gas pipelines and introduces parameters of fatal length and cumulative fatal length. The fatal length is defined as the integrated fatality along the pipeline associated with hypothetical accidents. The cumulative fatal length is defined as the section of pipeline in which an accident leads to N or more fatalities. These parameters can be estimated easily by using the information of pipeline geometry and population density of a Geographic Information Systems (GIS). To demonstrate the proposed method, individual and societal risks for a sample pipeline have been estimated from the historical data of European Gas Pipeline Incident Data Group and BG Transco. With currently acceptable criteria taken into account for individual risk, the minimum proximity of the pipeline to occupied buildings is approximately proportional to the square root of the operating pressure of the pipeline. The proposed method of quantitative risk assessment may be useful for risk management during the planning and building stages of a new pipeline, and modification of a buried pipeline

  4. Quantitative risk assessment for environmental and occupational health. The practical solution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hallenbeck, W.H.; Cunningham, K.M.

    1986-01-01

    These following topics are covered in this book: concepts, methods, and limitations; exposure characterization; qualitative evaluation of human and animal studies; quantitative evaluation of human and animal studies; risk analysis; acceptable concentrations; environmental and occupational exposure to a hypothetical toxicant; and environmental exposure to a natural toxicant radon-222 and its daughters

  5. A quantitative understanding on effects of finest nanograins on nanovoid growth in nanocrystalline materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    He, Tongyang; Zhou, Jianqiu; Liu, Hongxi

    2015-01-01

    For evaluating the effects of finest nanograins, whose grain size ranging from 2 to 4 nm, on nanovoid growth in nanocrystalline (NC) materials, we proposed a new theoretical model composed of finest nanograins evenly located at the triple junctions of conventional NC materials (grain size ranging from 10 to 100 nm). In the framework of the model, the mechanism of nanovoid growth is the dislocation emission. The blocking effect of finest nanograin on the motion of dislocations emitted from the nanovoid surface was taken into consideration. The critical condition required for dislocations emitted from the nanovoid surface and the influences of the finest nanograin on the nanovoid growth were calculated separately. The quantitatively analyzed results showed that finest nanograins could significantly suppress the growth of nanovoids compared with the triple junctions without finest nanograins. Therefore, the fracture toughness of the NC materials could be enhanced by finest nanograins

  6. Understanding patient perceptions and risk for hepatitis C screening.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grannan, S

    2017-08-01

    The specific aims were to identify specific themes and barriers to viral hepatitis C (HCV) testing and to determine if testing rates increased when patients self-identify their risk factors and were offered testing. This study was conducted at a Federally Qualified Health Centre (FQHC) in an underserved neighbourhood located in the Mountain West. This descriptive study used survey and group-level electronic health record (EHR) data. Adults 18 years and older who speak and write in English or Spanish and arrived for care at a FQHC were recruited to complete a survey. The 10-item survey assessed demographics, HCV risk, willingness to test, and reasons for not testing. Screening rates during the survey period were compared with the baseline 2014 rates using EHR data. EHR demographic, testing, and incidents of positive HCV infections data were analysed and compared with survey data. The typical participant (N=111) was female (74%), Baby Boomer (1945-1965) generation (45%), white (86%), and uninsured (54%). Top 6 self-identified risks were tattoo and/or body piercings (47.7%), Baby Boomer (36%), multiple sex partners (18%), work-related exposure (8.1%), non-injection drug use (8.1%), and injection drug use (7.2%). Only 78% of Baby Boomers identified being a Baby Boomer as a risk. Eighty-one percent of participants did not want to test. Testing did not increase during the study period (2.9 tests/wk in 2014 and 2.1 tests/wk during the survey period). Main reasons not to test were "I do not have any risk factors" (30.2%), concerned with cost (15.1%), tested in the past (15.1%), other reasons (9.3%), not feeling well (5.8%). More than one main reason was selected by 17% of the participants. Baby Boomers did not self-identify risk. Also, testing incidence did not increase when patients self-identified risk and were offered testing. Many participants did not identify risk which is a barrier to testing.Additional barriers to overcome are concerns with cost and comfort in

  7. Revisiting the 'disaster and development' debate - Toward a broader understanding of macroeconomic risk and resilience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mochizuki, Junko; Mechler, Reinhard; Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan; Keating, Adriana; Williges, Keith

    2014-01-01

    Debate regarding the relationship between socioeconomic development and natural disasters remains at the fore of global discussions, as the potential risk from climate extremes and uncertainty pose an increasing threat to developmental prospects. This study reviews statistical investigations of disaster and development linkages, across topics of macroeconomic growth, public governance and others to identify key challenges to the current approach to macro-level statistical investigation. Both theoretically and qualitatively, disaster is known to affect development through a number of channels: haphazard development, weak institutions, lack of social safety nets and short-termism of our decision-making practices are some of the factors that drive natural disaster risk. Developmental potentials, including the prospects for sustainable and equitable growth, are in turn threatened by such accumulation of disaster risks. However, quantitative evidence regarding these complex causality chains remains contested due to several reasons. A number of theoretical and methodological limitations have been identified, including the use of GDP as a proxy measurement of welfare, issues with natural disaster damage reporting and the adoption of ad hoc model specifications and variables, which render interpretation and cross-comparison of statistical analysis difficult. Additionally, while greater attention is paid to economic and institutional parameters such as GDP, remittance, corruption and public expenditure as opposed to hard-to-quantify yet critical factors such as environmental conditions and social vulnerabilities. These are gaps in our approach that hamper our comprehensive understanding of the disaster-development nexus. Important areas for further research are identified, including recognizing and addressing the data constraints, incorporating sustainability and equity concerns through alternatives to GDP, and finding novel approaches to examining the complex and dynamic

  8. Understanding metal homeostasis in primary cultured neurons. Studies using single neuron subcellular and quantitative metallomics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colvin, Robert A; Lai, Barry; Holmes, William R; Lee, Daewoo

    2015-07-01

    The purpose of this study was to demonstrate how single cell quantitative and subcellular metallomics inform us about both the spatial distribution and cellular mechanisms of metal buffering and homeostasis in primary cultured neurons from embryonic rat brain, which are often used as models of human disease involving metal dyshomeostasis. The present studies utilized synchrotron radiation X-ray fluorescence (SRXRF) and focused primarily on zinc and iron, two abundant metals in neurons that have been implicated in the pathogenesis of neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer's disease and Parkinson's disease. Total single cell contents for calcium, iron, zinc, copper, manganese, and nickel were determined. Resting steady state zinc showed a diffuse distribution in both soma and processes, best defined by the mass profile of the neuron with an enrichment in the nucleus compared with the cytoplasm. Zinc buffering and homeostasis was studied using two modes of cellular zinc loading - transporter and ionophore (pyrithione) mediated. Single neuron zinc contents were shown to statistically significantly increase by either loading method - ionophore: 160 million to 7 billion; transporter 160 million to 280 million atoms per neuronal soma. The newly acquired and buffered zinc still showed a diffuse distribution. Soma and processes have about equal abilities to take up zinc via transporter mediated pathways. Copper levels are distributed diffusely as well, but are relatively higher in the processes relative to zinc levels. Prior studies have observed iron puncta in certain cell types, but others have not. In the present study, iron puncta were characterized in several primary neuronal types. The results show that iron puncta could be found in all neuronal types studied and can account for up to 50% of the total steady state content of iron in neuronal soma. Although other metals can be present in iron puncta, they are predominantly iron containing and do not appear to be

  9. Quantitative prediction of oral cancer risk in patients with oral leukoplakia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yao; Li, Yicheng; Fu, Yue; Liu, Tong; Liu, Xiaoyong; Zhang, Xinyan; Fu, Jie; Guan, Xiaobing; Chen, Tong; Chen, Xiaoxin; Sun, Zheng

    2017-07-11

    Exfoliative cytology has been widely used for early diagnosis of oral squamous cell carcinoma. We have developed an oral cancer risk index using DNA index value to quantitatively assess cancer risk in patients with oral leukoplakia, but with limited success. In order to improve the performance of the risk index, we collected exfoliative cytology, histopathology, and clinical follow-up data from two independent cohorts of normal, leukoplakia and cancer subjects (training set and validation set). Peaks were defined on the basis of first derivatives with positives, and modern machine learning techniques were utilized to build statistical prediction models on the reconstructed data. Random forest was found to be the best model with high sensitivity (100%) and specificity (99.2%). Using the Peaks-Random Forest model, we constructed an index (OCRI2) as a quantitative measurement of cancer risk. Among 11 leukoplakia patients with an OCRI2 over 0.5, 4 (36.4%) developed cancer during follow-up (23 ± 20 months), whereas 3 (5.3%) of 57 leukoplakia patients with an OCRI2 less than 0.5 developed cancer (32 ± 31 months). OCRI2 is better than other methods in predicting oral squamous cell carcinoma during follow-up. In conclusion, we have developed an exfoliative cytology-based method for quantitative prediction of cancer risk in patients with oral leukoplakia.

  10. Simplified quantitative treatment of uncertainty and interindividual variability in health risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bogen, K.T.

    1993-01-01

    A distinction between uncertainty (or the extent of lack of knowledge) and interindividual variability (or the extent of person-to-person heterogeneity) regarding the values of input variates must be maintained if a quantitative characterization of uncertainty in population risk or in individual risk is sought. Here, some practical methods are presented that should facilitate implementation of the analytic framework for uncertainty and variability proposed by Bogen and Spear. (1,2) Two types of methodology are discussed: one that facilitates the distinction between uncertainty and variability per se, and another that may be used to simplify quantitative analysis of distributed inputs representing either uncertainty or variability. A simple and a complex form for modeled increased risk are presented and then used to illustrate methods facilitating the distinction between uncertainty and variability in reference to characterization of both population and individual risk. Finally, a simple form of discrete probability calculus is proposed as an easily implemented, practical altemative to Monte-Carlo based procedures to quantitative integration of uncertainty and variability in risk assessment

  11. Understanding the Role of Online Reviews on Customers' Risk Perception

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jing

    2013-01-01

    Customer reviews play an important role in today's online shopping environment. Research into customer reviews has largely focused on the predictive effect of review characteristics on variables such as product sales. However, relatively little attention has been directed towards understanding how reviews impact a customer's decision to purchase a…

  12. Quantitative risk assessment of continuous liquid spill fires based on spread and burning behaviours

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Jinlong; Huang, Hong; Li, Yuntao

    2017-01-01

    Spill fires usually occur during the storage and transportation of hazardous materials, posing a threat to the people and environment in their immediate proximity. In this paper, a classical Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) method is used to assess the risk of spill fires. In this method......, the maximum spread area and the steady burning area are introduced as parameters to clearly assess the range of influence of the spill fire. In the calculations, a modified spread model that takes into consideration the burning rate variation is established to calculate the maximum spread area. Furthermore......, large-scale experiments of spill fires on water and a glass sheet were conducted to verify the accuracy and application of the model. The results show that the procedure we developed can be used to quantitatively calculate the risk associated with a continuous spill fire....

  13. Plasmodium knowlesi transmission: integrating quantitative approaches from epidemiology and ecology to understand malaria as a zoonosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brock, P M; Fornace, K M; Parmiter, M; Cox, J; Drakeley, C J; Ferguson, H M; Kao, R R

    2016-04-01

    The public health threat posed by zoonotic Plasmodium knowlesi appears to be growing: it is increasingly reported across South East Asia, and is the leading cause of malaria in Malaysian Borneo. Plasmodium knowlesi threatens progress towards malaria elimination as aspects of its transmission, such as spillover from wildlife reservoirs and reliance on outdoor-biting vectors, may limit the effectiveness of conventional methods of malaria control. The development of new quantitative approaches that address the ecological complexity of P. knowlesi, particularly through a focus on its primary reservoir hosts, will be required to control it. Here, we review what is known about P. knowlesi transmission, identify key knowledge gaps in the context of current approaches to transmission modelling, and discuss the integration of these approaches with clinical parasitology and geostatistical analysis. We highlight the need to incorporate the influences of fine-scale spatial variation, rapid changes to the landscape, and reservoir population and transmission dynamics. The proposed integrated approach would address the unique challenges posed by malaria as a zoonosis, aid the identification of transmission hotspots, provide insight into the mechanistic links between incidence and land use change and support the design of appropriate interventions.

  14. Understanding the NSAID related risk of vascular events

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vonkeman, Harald Erwin; Brouwers, Jacobus R.B.J.; van de Laar, Mart A F J

    2006-01-01

    Concern is growing about an increased risk of thrombotic events (including myocardial infarction and stroke) during the use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), in particular the so called selective cyclo-oxygenase-2 (COX 2) inhibitors. Although clinical trials give conflicting results

  15. Heart Disease in Women: Understand Symptoms and Risk Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... unless you have no other options. Although several traditional risk factors for coronary artery disease — such as high cholesterol, high blood pressure and obesity — affect women and men, other factors may play a bigger role in the development of heart disease in women. ...

  16. Understanding Health Risks: Improve Your Chances for Good Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... raise your risk for catching the flu. Obesity boosts the odds you’ll get diabetes. Smoking increases ... They can say, ‘Tell me what’s on your mind. Do you have any questions?’” Such open conversations ...

  17. Genetic toxicology at the crossroads-from qualitative hazard evaluation to quantitative risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Paul A; Johnson, George E

    2016-05-01

    Applied genetic toxicology is undergoing a transition from qualitative hazard identification to quantitative dose-response analysis and risk assessment. To facilitate this change, the Health and Environmental Sciences Institute (HESI) Genetic Toxicology Technical Committee (GTTC) sponsored a workshop held in Lancaster, UK on July 10-11, 2014. The event included invited speakers from several institutions and the contents was divided into three themes-1: Point-of-departure Metrics for Quantitative Dose-Response Analysis in Genetic Toxicology; 2: Measurement and Estimation of Exposures for Better Extrapolation to Humans and 3: The Use of Quantitative Approaches in Genetic Toxicology for human health risk assessment (HHRA). A host of pertinent issues were discussed relating to the use of in vitro and in vivo dose-response data, the development of methods for in vitro to in vivo extrapolation and approaches to use in vivo dose-response data to determine human exposure limits for regulatory evaluations and decision-making. This Special Issue, which was inspired by the workshop, contains a series of papers that collectively address topics related to the aforementioned themes. The Issue includes contributions that collectively evaluate, describe and discuss in silico, in vitro, in vivo and statistical approaches that are facilitating the shift from qualitative hazard evaluation to quantitative risk assessment. The use and application of the benchmark dose approach was a central theme in many of the workshop presentations and discussions, and the Special Issue includes several contributions that outline novel applications for the analysis and interpretation of genetic toxicity data. Although the contents of the Special Issue constitutes an important step towards the adoption of quantitative methods for regulatory assessment of genetic toxicity, formal acceptance of quantitative methods for HHRA and regulatory decision-making will require consensus regarding the

  18. Understanding the Risk Factors of Trauma Center Closures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Yu-Chu; Hsia, Renee Y.; Kuzma, Kristen

    2011-01-01

    Objectives We analyze whether hazard rates of shutting down trauma centers are higher due to financial pressures or in areas with vulnerable populations (such as minorities or the poor). Materials and Methods This is a retrospective study of all hospitals with trauma center services in urban areas in the continental US between 1990 and 2005, identified from the American Hospital Association Annual Surveys. These data were linked with Medicare cost reports, and supplemented with other sources, including the Area Resource File. We analyze the hazard rates of trauma center closures among several dimensions of risk factors using discrete-time proportional hazard models. Results The number of trauma center closures increased from 1990 to 2005, with a total of 339 during this period. The hazard rate of closing trauma centers in hospitals with a negative profit margin is 1.38 times higher than those hospitals without the negative profit margin (P lower hazard of shutting down trauma centers (ratio: 0.58, P penetration face a higher hazard of trauma center closure (ratio: 2.06, P < 0.01). Finally, hospitals in areas with higher shares of minorities face a higher risk of trauma center closure (ratio: 1.69, P < 0.01). Medicaid load and uninsured populations, however, are not risk factors for higher rates of closure after we control for other financial and community characteristics. Conclusions Our findings give an indication on how the current proposals to cut public spending could exacerbate the trauma closure particularly among areas with high shares of minorities. In addition, given the negative effect of health maintenance organizations on trauma center survival, the growth of Medicaid managed care population should be monitored. Finally, high shares of Medicaid or uninsurance by themselves are not independent risk factors for higher closure as long as financial pressures are mitigated. Targeted policy interventions and further research on the causes, are needed to

  19. Understanding risk evaluation and mitigation strategies in organ transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabardi, Steven

    2011-07-01

    The United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Amendments Act of 2007 mandated that Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS) be required of manufacturers. These REMS are strategies implemented to manage known or potential risks associated with drugs and to ensure ongoing pharmacovigilance throughout the life of a pharmaceutical product, including once the product becomes available as generic. The elements of an individual REMS program consist of three levels: medication guide or patient package insert, communication plan, and elements to assure safe use (ETASU). A medication guide or patient package insert is used to help prevent serious adverse events, aid in patient decision making, and enhance drug adherence. Communication plans are used to educate health care providers and to encourage their compliance with REMS. The ETASU is a restrictive process that is implemented when it is deemed necessary to ensure that patients have safe access to products with known serious risks that would otherwise be unavailable. To review the components of REMS and specifically assess their impact on health care providers practicing within the organ transplantation arena, a literature search of the MEDLINE database (January 2007-December 2010) was performed, and published materials from the FDA and its Web site were also reviewed. In transplantation, REMS programs exist for both everolimus (medication guide and communication plan) and sirolimus (medication guide). The FDA has stated that all mycophenolic acid derivatives will be subject to a proposed REMS that has not yet been approved; however, both branded mycophenolic acid agents already have approved medication guides. The REMS are a permanent fixture in the development and marketing of pharmaceutical agents, and their further implementation in solid organ transplantation is inevitable. Transplantation providers should take a proactive role in patient education and implementation of REMS within the therapeutic area

  20. Nuclear Power: Understanding the Economic Risks and Uncertainties

    OpenAIRE

    Kessides, Ioannis N.

    2010-01-01

    This paper identifies the fundamental elements and critical research tasks of a comprehensive analysis of the costs and benefits of nuclear power relative to investments in alternative baseload technologies. The proposed framework seeks to: (i) identify the set of expected parameter values under which nuclear power becomes cost competitive relative to alternative generating technologies; (ii) identify the main risk drivers and quantify their impacts on the costs of nuclear power; (iii) estima...

  1. Risk-oriented banking supervision: understanding change of course

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vlasov K. A.

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available in this article the existing model of national bank supervision, its substantial party are considered. By means of the legal analysis and comparative jurisprudence foreign models of bank supervision, the international standards of the «soft» right are investigated, the analysis of an opportunity and positive sides of change of approach of the operating bank supervision to substantial (risk-focused is made.

  2. Integrative Understanding of Familial Impulsivity, Early Adversity and Suicide Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabela M. M. Lima

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Impulsivity is a core characteristic of bipolar disorder and it was observed as elevated in individuals with the disorder and in their relatives. Both impulsivity and history of maltreatment are risk factors for suicide attempts, however, these two key variables may not be independent, given the fact that parental impulsivity and associated social context could increase the risk of child maltreatment. In this study it was examined the association between the impulsivity of relatives and child maltreatment taking into consideration the conjoint and unique effects of these two variables on the risk of suicide attempts among the patients.Materials and Methods: Participants of the study consisted of 117 patients diagnosed with bipolar disorder and 25 first-degree relatives. Linear regression model was conducted to describe associations between facets of impulsivity of relatives and levels of child maltreatment reported by patients. The independent associations of suicide attempt history with the dimensions of impulsivity of the patient and maltreatment were tested by multinomial logistic regression.Results: Impulsivity of relatives and, more specifically, inhibitory control can predict the maltreatment of the patient. Inhibitory control and emotional abuse were related, conjointly, to a greater likelihood of having a history of more than one suicide attempt.Discussion: Considering that the impulsivity of relatives predicts child maltreatment, it is possible that a genetically shared impulsivity is an underlying feature associated with the history of multiple suicide attempts. These findings highlight the importance of considering child maltreatment, impulsivity and suicide attempt history in integrative models.

  3. Integrative Understanding of Familial Impulsivity, Early Adversity and Suicide Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, Isabela M M; Malloy-Diniz, Leandro F; de Miranda, Débora M; Da Silva, Antônio G; Neves, Fernando S; Johnson, Sheri L

    2017-01-01

    Introduction: Impulsivity is a core characteristic of bipolar disorder and it was observed as elevated in individuals with the disorder and in their relatives. Both impulsivity and history of maltreatment are risk factors for suicide attempts, however, these two key variables may not be independent, given the fact that parental impulsivity and associated social context could increase the risk of child maltreatment. In this study it was examined the association between the impulsivity of relatives and child maltreatment taking into consideration the conjoint and unique effects of these two variables on the risk of suicide attempts among the patients. Materials and Methods: Participants of the study consisted of 117 patients diagnosed with bipolar disorder and 25 first-degree relatives. Linear regression model was conducted to describe associations between facets of impulsivity of relatives and levels of child maltreatment reported by patients. The independent associations of suicide attempt history with the dimensions of impulsivity of the patient and maltreatment were tested by multinomial logistic regression. Results: Impulsivity of relatives and, more specifically, inhibitory control can predict the maltreatment of the patient. Inhibitory control and emotional abuse were related, conjointly, to a greater likelihood of having a history of more than one suicide attempt. Discussion: Considering that the impulsivity of relatives predicts child maltreatment, it is possible that a genetically shared impulsivity is an underlying feature associated with the history of multiple suicide attempts. These findings highlight the importance of considering child maltreatment, impulsivity and suicide attempt history in integrative models.

  4. Understanding the information needs of people with haematological cancers. A meta-ethnography of quantitative and qualitative research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atherton, K; Young, B; Salmon, P

    2017-11-01

    Clinical practice in haematological oncology often involves difficult diagnostic and treatment decisions. In this context, understanding patients' information needs and the functions that information serves for them is particularly important. We systematically reviewed qualitative and quantitative evidence on haematological oncology patients' information needs to inform how these needs can best be addressed in clinical practice. PsycINFO, Medline and CINAHL Plus electronic databases were searched for relevant empirical papers published from January 2003 to July 2016. Synthesis of the findings drew on meta-ethnography and meta-study. Most quantitative studies used a survey design and indicated that patients are largely content with the information they receive from physicians, however much or little they actually receive, although a minority of patients are not content with information. Qualitative studies suggest that a sense of being in a caring relationship with a physician allows patients to feel content with the information they have been given, whereas patients who lack such a relationship want more information. The qualitative evidence can help explain the lack of association between the amount of information received and contentment with it in the quantitative research. Trusting relationships are integral to helping patients feel that their information needs have been met. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Enhancing local action planning through quantitative flood risk analysis: a case study in Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castillo-Rodríguez, Jesica Tamara; Escuder-Bueno, Ignacio; Perales-Momparler, Sara; Ramón Porta-Sancho, Juan

    2016-07-01

    This article presents a method to incorporate and promote quantitative risk analysis to support local action planning against flooding. The proposed approach aims to provide a framework for local flood risk analysis, combining hazard mapping with vulnerability data to quantify risk in terms of expected annual affected population, potential injuries, number of fatalities, and economic damages. Flood risk is estimated combining GIS data of loads, system response, and consequences and using event tree modelling for risk calculation. The study area is the city of Oliva, located on the eastern coast of Spain. Results from risk modelling have been used to inform local action planning and to assess the benefits of structural and non-structural risk reduction measures. Results show the potential impact on risk reduction of flood defences and improved warning communication schemes through local action planning: societal flood risk (in terms of annual expected affected population) would be reduced up to 51 % by combining both structural and non-structural measures. In addition, the effect of seasonal population variability is analysed (annual expected affected population ranges from 82 to 107 %, compared with the current situation, depending on occupancy rates in hotels and campsites). Results highlight the need for robust and standardized methods for urban flood risk analysis replicability at regional and national scale.

  6. Understanding fatal older road user crash circumstances and risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koppel, Sjaan; Bugeja, Lyndal; Smith, Daisy; Lamb, Ashne; Dwyer, Jeremy; Fitzharris, Michael; Newstead, Stuart; D'Elia, Angelo; Charlton, Judith

    2018-02-28

    This study used medicolegal data to investigate fatal older road user (ORU) crash circumstances and risk factors relating to four key components of the Safe System approach (e.g., roads and roadsides, vehicles, road users, and speeds) to identify areas of priority for targeted prevention activity. The Coroners Court of Victoria's Surveillance Database was searched to identify coronial records with at least one deceased ORU in the state of Victoria, Australia, for 2013-2014. Information relating to the ORU, crash characteristics and circumstances, and risk factors was extracted and analyzed. The average rate of fatal ORU crashes per 100,000 population was 8.1 (95% confidence interval [CI] 6.0-10.2), which was more than double the average rate of fatal middle-aged road user crashes (3.6, 95% CI 2.5-4.6). There was a significant relationship between age group and deceased road user type (χ 2 (15, N = 226) = 3.56, p road" (87.0%), on roads that were paved (94.2%), dry (74.2%), and had light traffic volume (38.3%). Road user error was identified by the police and/or coroner for the majority of fatal ORU crashes (57.9%), with a significant proportion of deceased ORU deemed to have "misjudged" (40.9%) or "failed to yield" (37.9%). Road user error was the most significant risk factor identified in fatal ORU crashes, which suggests that there is a limited capacity of the Victorian road system to fully accommodate road user errors. Initiatives related to safer roads and roadsides, vehicles, and speed zones, as well as behavioral approaches, are key areas of priority for targeted activity to prevent fatal older road user crashes in the future.

  7. Games for electricity traders: Understanding risk in a deregulated industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dyner, Isaac [Energy Institute, CeiBA-Complexity Center, Universidad Nacional de Colombia AA 1027 Medellin (Colombia)], E-mail: idyner@unalmed.edu.co; Larsen, Erik [Faculty of Economics, University of Lugano, Via Buffi 13 CH-6900 Lugano (Switzerland)], E-mail: erik.larsen@lu.unisi.ch; Franco, Carlos Jaime [Energy Institute, CeiBA-Complexity Center, Universidad Nacional de Colombia AA 1027 Medellin (Colombia)], E-mail: cjfranco@unalmed.edu.co

    2009-02-15

    We illustrate and discuss the use of a computer-based learning environment, known as a microworld, for training agents in the Colombian electricity market. As the market operator was concerned with efficiency in the electricity spot market because of an insufficient number of participants, they commissioned a tool that could help potential participants to learn about both market operation as well as the risk management it involved. By making the industry more transparent it was intended that a larger number of traders and companies would participate in the market, making it more efficient. We describe the development and use of this tool, which is based on system dynamics and gaming.

  8. Games for electricity traders. Understanding risk in a deregulated industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dyner, Isaac; Franco, Carlos Jaime [Energy Institute, CeiBA-Complexity Center, Universidad Nacional de Colombia AA 1027 Medellin (Colombia); Larsen, Erik [Faculty of Economics, University of Lugano, Via Buffi 13 CH-6900 Lugano (Switzerland)

    2009-02-15

    We illustrate and discuss the use of a computer-based learning environment, known as a microworld, for training agents in the Colombian electricity market. As the market operator was concerned with efficiency in the electricity spot market because of an insufficient number of participants, they commissioned a tool that could help potential participants to learn about both market operation as well as the risk management it involved. By making the industry more transparent it was intended that a larger number of traders and companies would participate in the market, making it more efficient. We describe the development and use of this tool, which is based on system dynamics and gaming. (author)

  9. Games for electricity traders. Understanding risk in a deregulated industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dyner, Isaac; Franco, Carlos Jaime; Larsen, Erik

    2009-01-01

    We illustrate and discuss the use of a computer-based learning environment, known as a microworld, for training agents in the Colombian electricity market. As the market operator was concerned with efficiency in the electricity spot market because of an insufficient number of participants, they commissioned a tool that could help potential participants to learn about both market operation as well as the risk management it involved. By making the industry more transparent it was intended that a larger number of traders and companies would participate in the market, making it more efficient. We describe the development and use of this tool, which is based on system dynamics and gaming. (author)

  10. Fixing the cracks in the crystal ball: A maturity model for quantitative risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rae, Andrew; Alexander, Rob; McDermid, John

    2014-01-01

    Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) is widely practiced in system safety, but there is insufficient evidence that QRA in general is fit for purpose. Defenders of QRA draw a distinction between poor or misused QRA and correct, appropriately used QRA, but this distinction is only useful if we have robust ways to identify the flaws in an individual QRA. In this paper we present a comprehensive maturity model for QRA which covers all the potential flaws discussed in the risk assessment literature and in a collection of risk assessment peer reviews. We provide initial validation of the completeness and realism of the model. Our risk assessment maturity model provides a way to prioritise both process development within an organisation and empirical research within the QRA community. - Highlights: • Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) is widely practiced, but there is insufficient evidence that it is fit for purpose. • A given QRA may be good, or it may not – we need systematic ways to distinguish this. • We have created a maturity model for QRA which covers all the potential flaws discussed in the risk assessment literature. • We have provided initial validation of the completeness and realism of the model. • The maturity model can also be used to prioritise QRA research discipline-wide

  11. Deregulation in the electricity sector: Understanding strategic and regulatory risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Larsen, E.R. [City Univ. Business School, Dept. Management Systems and Information, London (United Kingdom); Bunn, D.W. [London Business School, London (United Kingdom)

    1999-08-01

    This paper is motivated by our experiences since 1990 with developing system simulation models to help UK companies in the restructured electricity industry understand the radically different market within which they must become competitive. When public utilities such as electricity have been restructured, deregulated and/or privatised, the process has often been associated with a major change in the competitive environment. As a consequence, the strategic and regulatory uncertainties ahead for these companies are unprecedented. In such a market there has been no historical evolution and all the participants including the regulatory institutions have very little understanding of how it will operate in the short term and evolve in the future. In this situation, the use of systems dynamic models appears to offer an attractive way of gaining insights into how aspects of the competitive market might evolve. In the absence of real experience and relevant analogies, learning from models assumes a key role. Such models cannot be validated empirically, but can be developed to represent how the system is designed to operate. From such a prototypical basis, sensitivity analysis can generate insights on the strategic opportunities created failings in the market design, or its potential instability to shocks and market imperfections. (au)

  12. Understanding the risk coming from the radiation exposure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pierzo, J.A.

    2007-01-01

    From 1972, the National Academy has published a series of reports on the biological effects of ionizing radiation (BEIR) in relation to the health effects of the low level radiation. The Environmental Protection Agency, the Department of Energy and the Academy of Sciences of US, began in 1996 the first phase of the BEIR VII report about the health risks associated to the exposure to low level ionizing radiation. The purpose of the first phase of the study is to revise the literature and to decide if enough novel information existed to guarantee the complete study. The National Academies concluded that enough information existed with an appropriate time to carry out the reanalysis. Among the conclusions of BEIR VII are that the current scientific evidence is concordant with the hypothesis of the existence of a linear model without threshold (LSU) in the dose-response relationship among the exposure to ionizing radiation and the cancer development in humans. This implies that very low dose even has the potential of causing deleterious effects in the health, although the risk to low dose is very small. (Author)

  13. "Touching Triton": Building Student Understanding of Complex Disease Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loftin, Madelene; East, Kelly; Hott, Adam; Lamb, Neil

    2016-01-01

    Life science classrooms often emphasize the exception to the rule when it comes to teaching genetics, focusing heavily on rare single-gene and Mendelian traits. By contrast, the vast majority of human traits and diseases are caused by more complicated interactions between genetic and environmental factors. Research indicates that students have a deterministic view of genetics, generalize Mendelian inheritance patterns to all traits, and have unrealistic expectations of genetic technologies. The challenge lies in how to help students analyze complex disease risk with a lack of curriculum materials. Providing open access to both content resources and an engaging storyline can be achieved using a "serious game" model. "Touching Triton" was developed as a serious game in which students are asked to analyze data from a medical record, family history, and genomic report in order to develop an overall lifetime risk estimate of six common, complex diseases. Evaluation of student performance shows significant learning gains in key content areas along with a high level of engagement.

  14. Quantitative assessment of changes in landslide risk using a regional scale run-out model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussin, Haydar; Chen, Lixia; Ciurean, Roxana; van Westen, Cees; Reichenbach, Paola; Sterlacchini, Simone

    2015-04-01

    The risk of landslide hazard continuously changes in time and space and is rarely a static or constant phenomena in an affected area. However one of the main challenges of quantitatively assessing changes in landslide risk is the availability of multi-temporal data for the different components of risk. Furthermore, a truly "quantitative" landslide risk analysis requires the modeling of the landslide intensity (e.g. flow depth, velocities or impact pressures) affecting the elements at risk. Such a quantitative approach is often lacking in medium to regional scale studies in the scientific literature or is left out altogether. In this research we modelled the temporal and spatial changes of debris flow risk in a narrow alpine valley in the North Eastern Italian Alps. The debris flow inventory from 1996 to 2011 and multi-temporal digital elevation models (DEMs) were used to assess the susceptibility of debris flow triggering areas and to simulate debris flow run-out using the Flow-R regional scale model. In order to determine debris flow intensities, we used a linear relationship that was found between back calibrated physically based Flo-2D simulations (local scale models of five debris flows from 2003) and the probability values of the Flow-R software. This gave us the possibility to assign flow depth to a total of 10 separate classes on a regional scale. Debris flow vulnerability curves from the literature and one curve specifically for our case study area were used to determine the damage for different material and building types associated with the elements at risk. The building values were obtained from the Italian Revenue Agency (Agenzia delle Entrate) and were classified per cadastral zone according to the Real Estate Observatory data (Osservatorio del Mercato Immobiliare, Agenzia Entrate - OMI). The minimum and maximum market value for each building was obtained by multiplying the corresponding land-use value (€/msq) with building area and number of floors

  15. Predicted cancer risks induced by computed tomography examinations during childhood, by a quantitative risk assessment approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Journy, Neige; Ancelet, Sophie; Rehel, Jean-Luc; Mezzarobba, Myriam; Aubert, Bernard; Laurier, Dominique; Bernier, Marie-Odile

    2014-03-01

    The potential adverse effects associated with exposure to ionizing radiation from computed tomography (CT) in pediatrics must be characterized in relation to their expected clinical benefits. Additional epidemiological data are, however, still awaited for providing a lifelong overview of potential cancer risks. This paper gives predictions of potential lifetime risks of cancer incidence that would be induced by CT examinations during childhood in French routine practices in pediatrics. Organ doses were estimated from standard radiological protocols in 15 hospitals. Excess risks of leukemia, brain/central nervous system, breast and thyroid cancers were predicted from dose-response models estimated in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors' dataset and studies of medical exposures. Uncertainty in predictions was quantified using Monte Carlo simulations. This approach predicts that 100,000 skull/brain scans in 5-year-old children would result in eight (90 % uncertainty interval (UI) 1-55) brain/CNS cancers and four (90 % UI 1-14) cases of leukemia and that 100,000 chest scans would lead to 31 (90 % UI 9-101) thyroid cancers, 55 (90 % UI 20-158) breast cancers, and one (90 % UI risks without exposure). Compared to background risks, radiation-induced risks would be low for individuals throughout life, but relative risks would be highest in the first decades of life. Heterogeneity in the radiological protocols across the hospitals implies that 5-10 % of CT examinations would be related to risks 1.4-3.6 times higher than those for the median doses. Overall excess relative risks in exposed populations would be 1-10 % depending on the site of cancer and the duration of follow-up. The results emphasize the potential risks of cancer specifically from standard CT examinations in pediatrics and underline the necessity of optimization of radiological protocols.

  16. A quantitative method for risk assessment of agriculture due to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Zhiqiang; Pan, Zhihua; An, Pingli; Zhang, Jingting; Zhang, Jun; Pan, Yuying; Huang, Lei; Zhao, Hui; Han, Guolin; Wu, Dong; Wang, Jialin; Fan, Dongliang; Gao, Lin; Pan, Xuebiao

    2018-01-01

    Climate change has greatly affected agriculture. Agriculture is facing increasing risks as its sensitivity and vulnerability to climate change. Scientific assessment of climate change-induced agricultural risks could help to actively deal with climate change and ensure food security. However, quantitative assessment of risk is a difficult issue. Here, based on the IPCC assessment reports, a quantitative method for risk assessment of agriculture due to climate change is proposed. Risk is described as the product of the degree of loss and its probability of occurrence. The degree of loss can be expressed by the yield change amplitude. The probability of occurrence can be calculated by the new concept of climate change effect-accumulated frequency (CCEAF). Specific steps of this assessment method are suggested. This method is determined feasible and practical by using the spring wheat in Wuchuan County of Inner Mongolia as a test example. The results show that the fluctuation of spring wheat yield increased with the warming and drying climatic trend in Wuchuan County. The maximum yield decrease and its probability were 3.5 and 64.6%, respectively, for the temperature maximum increase 88.3%, and its risk was 2.2%. The maximum yield decrease and its probability were 14.1 and 56.1%, respectively, for the precipitation maximum decrease 35.2%, and its risk was 7.9%. For the comprehensive impacts of temperature and precipitation, the maximum yield decrease and its probability were 17.6 and 53.4%, respectively, and its risk increased to 9.4%. If we do not adopt appropriate adaptation strategies, the degree of loss from the negative impacts of multiclimatic factors and its probability of occurrence will both increase accordingly, and the risk will also grow obviously.

  17. A probabilistic quantitative risk assessment model for the long-term work zone crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Qiang; Weng, Jinxian; Qu, Xiaobo

    2010-11-01

    Work zones especially long-term work zones increase traffic conflicts and cause safety problems. Proper casualty risk assessment for a work zone is of importance for both traffic safety engineers and travelers. This paper develops a novel probabilistic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) model to evaluate the casualty risk combining frequency and consequence of all accident scenarios triggered by long-term work zone crashes. The casualty risk is measured by the individual risk and societal risk. The individual risk can be interpreted as the frequency of a driver/passenger being killed or injured, and the societal risk describes the relation between frequency and the number of casualties. The proposed probabilistic QRA model consists of the estimation of work zone crash frequency, an event tree and consequence estimation models. There are seven intermediate events--age (A), crash unit (CU), vehicle type (VT), alcohol (AL), light condition (LC), crash type (CT) and severity (S)--in the event tree. Since the estimated value of probability for some intermediate event may have large uncertainty, the uncertainty can thus be characterized by a random variable. The consequence estimation model takes into account the combination effects of speed and emergency medical service response time (ERT) on the consequence of work zone crash. Finally, a numerical example based on the Southeast Michigan work zone crash data is carried out. The numerical results show that there will be a 62% decrease of individual fatality risk and 44% reduction of individual injury risk if the mean travel speed is slowed down by 20%. In addition, there will be a 5% reduction of individual fatality risk and 0.05% reduction of individual injury risk if ERT is reduced by 20%. In other words, slowing down speed is more effective than reducing ERT in the casualty risk mitigation. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Understanding risk appetite : what is it, what pressures shape it and how is it institutionalized

    OpenAIRE

    Baunan, Håvard; Berge, Joel

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this thesis is to understand the concept of risk appetite in terms of what it is, what institutional pressures influence it, and how it is institutionalized in an organization. We try to understand what risk appetite is by examining the most influential enterprise risk management frameworks, reports from practitioners, and scholarly research on the topic. Through a case study of a large and complex Norwegian organization, we seek to explain what influences and in...

  19. An approach to quantitative assessment of relative proliferation risks from nuclear fuel cycles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silvennoinen, P.; Vira, J.

    1981-01-01

    Feasibility of quantitative assessments of the risk of nuclear weapons proliferation is discussed in this paper. The proliferation risk is defined as a combined utility of the different fuel cycle processes or materials for the proscribed acquisition of a nuclear weapon. Based on a set of selected weighted criteria, the process utilities are calculated employing utility functions or fuzzy expectation values. The methods are compared to each other. The scheme appears feasible in relative comparisons while certain leeway must still be retained for political judgement. (author)

  20. A Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment for Salmonella in Pigs for the European Union

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Snary, Emma L.; Swart, Arno N.; Simons, Robin R. L.

    2016-01-01

    ,000 and 1 in 10 million servings given consumption of one of the three product types considered (pork cuts, minced meat, and fermented ready‐to‐eat sausages). Further analyses of the farm‐to‐consumption QMRA suggest that the vast majority of human risk derives from infected pigs with a high concentration......A farm‐to‐consumption quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) for Salmonella in pigs in the European Union has been developed for the European Food Safety Authority. The primary aim of the QMRA was to assess the impact of hypothetical reductions of slaughter‐pig prevalence...

  1. Using MFM methodology to generate and define major accident scenarios for quantitative risk assessment studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hua, Xinsheng; Wu, Zongzhi; Lind, Morten

    2017-01-01

    to calculate likelihood of each MAS. Combining the likelihood of each scenario with a qualitative risk matrix, each major accident scenario is thereby ranked for consideration for detailed consequence analysis. The methodology is successfully highlighted using part of BMA-process for production of hydrogen......Generating and defining Major Accident Scenarios (MAS) are commonly agreed as the key step for quantitative risk assessment (QRA). The aim of the study is to explore the feasibility of using Multilevel Flow Modeling (MFM) methodology to formulating MAS. Traditionally this is usually done based...

  2. Comprehensive, Quantitative Risk Assessment of CO{sub 2} Geologic Sequestration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lepinski, James

    2013-09-30

    A Quantitative Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (QFMEA) was developed to conduct comprehensive, quantitative risk assessments on CO{sub 2} capture, transportation, and sequestration or use in deep saline aquifers, enhanced oil recovery operations, or enhanced coal bed methane operations. The model identifies and characterizes potential risks; identifies the likely failure modes, causes, effects and methods of detection; lists possible risk prevention and risk mitigation steps; estimates potential damage recovery costs, mitigation costs and costs savings resulting from mitigation; and ranks (prioritizes) risks according to the probability of failure, the severity of failure, the difficulty of early failure detection and the potential for fatalities. The QFMEA model generates the necessary information needed for effective project risk management. Diverse project information can be integrated into a concise, common format that allows comprehensive, quantitative analysis, by a cross-functional team of experts, to determine: What can possibly go wrong? How much will damage recovery cost? How can it be prevented or mitigated? What is the cost savings or benefit of prevention or mitigation? Which risks should be given highest priority for resolution? The QFMEA model can be tailored to specific projects and is applicable to new projects as well as mature projects. The model can be revised and updated as new information comes available. It accepts input from multiple sources, such as literature searches, site characterization, field data, computer simulations, analogues, process influence diagrams, probability density functions, financial analysis models, cost factors, and heuristic best practices manuals, and converts the information into a standardized format in an Excel spreadsheet. Process influence diagrams, geologic models, financial models, cost factors and an insurance schedule were developed to support the QFMEA model. Comprehensive, quantitative risk assessments

  3. Linkage of DNA Methylation Quantitative Trait Loci to Human Cancer Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Holger Heyn

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Epigenetic regulation and, in particular, DNA methylation have been linked to the underlying genetic sequence. DNA methylation quantitative trait loci (meQTL have been identified through significant associations between the genetic and epigenetic codes in physiological and pathological contexts. We propose that interrogating the interplay between polymorphic alleles and DNA methylation is a powerful method for improving our interpretation of risk alleles identified in genome-wide association studies that otherwise lack mechanistic explanation. We integrated patient cancer risk genotype data and genome-scale DNA methylation profiles of 3,649 primary human tumors, representing 13 solid cancer types. We provide a comprehensive meQTL catalog containing DNA methylation associations for 21% of interrogated cancer risk polymorphisms. Differentially methylated loci harbor previously reported and as-yet-unidentified cancer genes. We suggest that such regulation at the DNA level can provide a considerable amount of new information about the biology of cancer-risk alleles.

  4. Sugar concentration in nectar: a quantitative metric of crop attractiveness for refined pollinator risk assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knopper, Loren D; Dan, Tereza; Reisig, Dominic D; Johnson, Josephine D; Bowers, Lisa M

    2016-10-01

    Those involved with pollinator risk assessment know that agricultural crops vary in attractiveness to bees. Intuitively, this means that exposure to agricultural pesticides is likely greatest for attractive plants and lowest for unattractive plants. While crop attractiveness in the risk assessment process has been qualitatively remarked on by some authorities, absent is direction on how to refine the process with quantitative metrics of attractiveness. At a high level, attractiveness of crops to bees appears to depend on several key variables, including but not limited to: floral, olfactory, visual and tactile cues; seasonal availability; physical and behavioral characteristics of the bee; plant and nectar rewards. Notwithstanding the complexities and interactions among these variables, sugar content in nectar stands out as a suitable quantitative metric by which to refine pollinator risk assessments for attractiveness. Provided herein is a proposed way to use sugar nectar concentration to adjust the exposure parameter (with what is called a crop attractiveness factor) in the calculation of risk quotients in order to derive crop-specific tier I assessments. This Perspective is meant to invite discussion on incorporating such changes in the risk assessment process. © 2016 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry. © 2016 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

  5. Quantitative Risk Assessment of Human Trichinellosis Caused by Consumption of Pork Meat Sausages in Argentina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sequeira, G J; Zbrun, M V; Soto, L P; Astesana, D M; Blajman, J E; Rosmini, M R; Frizzo, L S; Signorini, M L

    2016-03-01

    In Argentina, there are three known species of genus Trichinella; however, Trichinella spiralis is most commonly associated with domestic pigs and it is recognized as the main cause of human trichinellosis by the consumption of products made with raw or insufficiently cooked pork meat. In some areas of Argentina, this disease is endemic and it is thus necessary to develop a more effective programme of prevention and control. Here, we developed a quantitative risk assessment of human trichinellosis following pork meat sausage consumption, which may be used to identify the stages with greater impact on the probability of acquiring the disease. The quantitative model was designed to describe the conditions in which the meat is produced, processed, transported, stored, sold and consumed in Argentina. The model predicted a risk of human trichinellosis of 4.88 × 10(-6) and an estimated annual number of trichinellosis cases of 109. The risk of human trichinellosis was sensitive to the number of Trichinella larvae that effectively survived the storage period (r = 0.89), the average probability of infection (PPinf ) (r = 0.44) and the storage time (Storage) (r = 0.08). This model allowed assessing the impact of different factors influencing the risk of acquiring trichinellosis. The model may thus help to select possible strategies to reduce the risk in the chain of by-products of pork production. © 2015 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  6. Emission trading in Ontario : Understanding and managing compliance risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    White, A. [Mirant Canada Energy Marketing ltd., Toronto, ON (Canada)

    2002-07-01

    Mirant is one of the top five American energy marketer of power and gas, with more than 20,700 megawatts (MW) of electric generating capacity worldwide, of which 13,600 is in North America. The author presented a chart displaying nitrogen oxide emissions in Ontario, followed by another chart with the emissions of sulphur dioxide also in Ontario. The emission targets for the power sector were reviewed, as were the nitrogen oxide emission limits from 2002 to 2010. The major features of the Ontario legislation were discussed, covering allowance allocation, unlimited banking and limited provisions for credit. Ontario fossil capacity was reviewed, followed by emission allowance allocation. The issues and risks for Independent Power Producers were discussed. They included the emission rate compared to that of the competition, how much the facility was run last year and how much you expect to run it next year, the possibility of buying allowances or credits and at what cost. Looking to the future, the government of Ontario has announced bold actions on industry emissions. The initiatives include consultations, emission limits for both nitrogen oxide and sulphur dioxide from all major industrial emitters, and tighter province-wide targets and timelines for nitrogen oxide and sulphur dioxide. refs., tabs., figs.

  7. Emission trading in Ontario : Understanding and managing compliance risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    White, A.

    2002-01-01

    Mirant is one of the top five American energy marketer of power and gas, with more than 20,700 megawatts (MW) of electric generating capacity worldwide, of which 13,600 is in North America. The author presented a chart displaying nitrogen oxide emissions in Ontario, followed by another chart with the emissions of sulphur dioxide also in Ontario. The emission targets for the power sector were reviewed, as were the nitrogen oxide emission limits from 2002 to 2010. The major features of the Ontario legislation were discussed, covering allowance allocation, unlimited banking and limited provisions for credit. Ontario fossil capacity was reviewed, followed by emission allowance allocation. The issues and risks for Independent Power Producers were discussed. They included the emission rate compared to that of the competition, how much the facility was run last year and how much you expect to run it next year, the possibility of buying allowances or credits and at what cost. Looking to the future, the government of Ontario has announced bold actions on industry emissions. The initiatives include consultations, emission limits for both nitrogen oxide and sulphur dioxide from all major industrial emitters, and tighter province-wide targets and timelines for nitrogen oxide and sulphur dioxide. refs., tabs., figs

  8. Understanding Motivations for Abstinence among Adolescent Young Women: Insights into Effective Sexual Risk Reduction Strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long-Middleton, Ellen R.; Burke, Pamela J.; Lawrence, Cheryl A. Cahill; Blanchard, Lauren B.; Amudala, Naomi H.; Rankin, Sally H.

    2012-01-01

    Introduction Pregnancy and sexually transmitted infections pose a significant threat to the health and wellbeing of adolescent young women. Abstinence when practiced provides the most effective means in preventing these problems, yet the perspective of abstinent young women is not well understood. The purpose of the investigation was to characterize female adolescents’ motivations for abstinence. Method As part of a larger, cross-sectional quantitative study investigating predictors of HIV risk reduction behaviors, qualitative responses from study participants who never had intercourse were analyzed in a consensus-based process using content analysis and frequency counts. An urban primary care site in a tertiary care center served as the setting, with adolescent young women ages 15–19 years included in the sample. Results Five broad topic categories emerged from the data that characterized motivations for abstinence in this sample: 1) Personal Readiness, 2) Fear, 3) Beliefs and Values, 4) Partner Worthiness and 5) Lack of Opportunity. Discussion A better understanding of the motivations for abstinence may serve to guide the development of interventions to delay intercourse. PMID:22525893

  9. Local scale multiple quantitative risk assessment and uncertainty evaluation in a densely urbanised area (Brescia, Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Lari

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The study of the interactions between natural and anthropogenic risks is necessary for quantitative risk assessment in areas affected by active natural processes, high population density and strong economic activities.

    We present a multiple quantitative risk assessment on a 420 km2 high risk area (Brescia and surroundings, Lombardy, Northern Italy, for flood, seismic and industrial accident scenarios. Expected economic annual losses are quantified for each scenario and annual exceedance probability-loss curves are calculated. Uncertainty on the input variables is propagated by means of three different methodologies: Monte-Carlo-Simulation, First Order Second Moment, and point estimate.

    Expected losses calculated by means of the three approaches show similar values for the whole study area, about 64 000 000 € for earthquakes, about 10 000 000 € for floods, and about 3000 € for industrial accidents. Locally, expected losses assume quite different values if calculated with the three different approaches, with differences up to 19%.

    The uncertainties on the expected losses and their propagation, performed with the three methods, are compared and discussed in the paper. In some cases, uncertainty reaches significant values (up to almost 50% of the expected loss. This underlines the necessity of including uncertainty in quantitative risk assessment, especially when it is used as a support for territorial planning and decision making. The method is developed thinking at a possible application at a regional-national scale, on the basis of data available in Italy over the national territory.

  10. Quantitative assessment of the microbial risk of leafy greens from farm to consumption: preliminary framework, data, and risk estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danyluk, Michelle D; Schaffner, Donald W

    2011-05-01

    This project was undertaken to relate what is known about the behavior of Escherichia coli O157:H7 under laboratory conditions and integrate this information to what is known regarding the 2006 E. coli O157:H7 spinach outbreak in the context of a quantitative microbial risk assessment. The risk model explicitly assumes that all contamination arises from exposure in the field. Extracted data, models, and user inputs were entered into an Excel spreadsheet, and the modeling software @RISK was used to perform Monte Carlo simulations. The model predicts that cut leafy greens that are temperature abused will support the growth of E. coli O157:H7, and populations of the organism may increase by as much a 1 log CFU/day under optimal temperature conditions. When the risk model used a starting level of -1 log CFU/g, with 0.1% of incoming servings contaminated, the predicted numbers of cells per serving were within the range of best available estimates of pathogen levels during the outbreak. The model predicts that levels in the field of -1 log CFU/g and 0.1% prevalence could have resulted in an outbreak approximately the size of the 2006 E. coli O157:H7 outbreak. This quantitative microbial risk assessment model represents a preliminary framework that identifies available data and provides initial risk estimates for pathogenic E. coli in leafy greens. Data gaps include retail storage times, correlations between storage time and temperature, determining the importance of E. coli O157:H7 in leafy greens lag time models, and validation of the importance of cross-contamination during the washing process.

  11. Understanding Outdoor Gyms in Public Open Spaces: A Systematic Review and Integrative Synthesis of Qualitative and Quantitative Evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Janet Lok Chun; Lo, Temmy Lee Ting; Ho, Rainbow Tin Hung

    2018-03-25

    (1) Background: An outdoor gym (OG) is environmental infrastructure built in a public open space to promote structured physical activity. The provision of OGs is increasingly seen as an important strategy to realize public health agendas promoting habitual physical activity. A systematic review was conducted to synthesize characteristics of OG and OG users' experiences and perceptions in different cultural contexts; (2) Methods: Online searches of multidisciplinary databases were conducted in health, sport and recreation, and urban planning disciplines. Characteristics of OGs were synthesized by integrating evidence from quantitative, qualitative, and mix-methods studies. The experiences and perceptions of OG users from both qualitative data and survey responses were synthesized through framework analysis; (3) Results: Nine studies met the inclusion criteria (three quantitative studies, four mixed-methods studies, and two pure qualitative studies). None were excluded on the basis of quality. OGs mainly serve adult and older adult population groups. Their size, design, and instructional support vary across studies. The inclusion of functional types of equipment did not have a unified standard. Regarding experiences and perceptions of OGs, five major themes emerged: "health", "social connectedness", "affordable", "support", and "design and promotion"; (4) Conclusions: The OG characteristics synthesis guides the direction in further studies regarding exploration of design parameters. The qualitative and quantitative synthesis revealed that health was a central theme of users' experiences. OGs are also spaces where community-dwellers can find social connectedness while participating in structured physical activity at no cost. Findings from this review create knowledge support for OG as environmental infrastructure for further research and facilitate the understanding of users' experiences and perceptions of OGs in different cultural contexts.

  12. Understanding Outdoor Gyms in Public Open Spaces: A Systematic Review and Integrative Synthesis of Qualitative and Quantitative Evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Janet Lok Chun; Lo, Temmy Lee Ting

    2018-01-01

    (1) Background: An outdoor gym (OG) is environmental infrastructure built in a public open space to promote structured physical activity. The provision of OGs is increasingly seen as an important strategy to realize public health agendas promoting habitual physical activity. A systematic review was conducted to synthesize characteristics of OG and OG users’ experiences and perceptions in different cultural contexts; (2) Methods: Online searches of multidisciplinary databases were conducted in health, sport and recreation, and urban planning disciplines. Characteristics of OGs were synthesized by integrating evidence from quantitative, qualitative, and mix-methods studies. The experiences and perceptions of OG users from both qualitative data and survey responses were synthesized through framework analysis; (3) Results: Nine studies met the inclusion criteria (three quantitative studies, four mixed-methods studies, and two pure qualitative studies). None were excluded on the basis of quality. OGs mainly serve adult and older adult population groups. Their size, design, and instructional support vary across studies. The inclusion of functional types of equipment did not have a unified standard. Regarding experiences and perceptions of OGs, five major themes emerged: “health”, “social connectedness”, “affordable”, “support”, and “design and promotion”; (4) Conclusions: The OG characteristics synthesis guides the direction in further studies regarding exploration of design parameters. The qualitative and quantitative synthesis revealed that health was a central theme of users’ experiences. OGs are also spaces where community-dwellers can find social connectedness while participating in structured physical activity at no cost. Findings from this review create knowledge support for OG as environmental infrastructure for further research and facilitate the understanding of users’ experiences and perceptions of OGs in different cultural contexts

  13. Approaches to advancing quantitative human health risk assessment of environmental chemicals in the post-genomic era.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiu, Weihsueh A; Euling, Susan Y; Scott, Cheryl Siegel; Subramaniam, Ravi P

    2013-09-15

    The contribution of genomics and associated technologies to human health risk assessment for environmental chemicals has focused largely on elucidating mechanisms of toxicity, as discussed in other articles in this issue. However, there is interest in moving beyond hazard characterization to making more direct impacts on quantitative risk assessment (QRA)--i.e., the determination of toxicity values for setting exposure standards and cleanup values. We propose that the evolution of QRA of environmental chemicals in the post-genomic era will involve three, somewhat overlapping phases in which different types of approaches begin to mature. The initial focus (in Phase I) has been and continues to be on "augmentation" of weight of evidence--using genomic and related technologies qualitatively to increase the confidence in and scientific basis of the results of QRA. Efforts aimed towards "integration" of these data with traditional animal-based approaches, in particular quantitative predictors, or surrogates, for the in vivo toxicity data to which they have been anchored are just beginning to be explored now (in Phase II). In parallel, there is a recognized need for "expansion" of the use of established biomarkers of susceptibility or risk of human diseases and disorders for QRA, particularly for addressing the issues of cumulative assessment and population risk. Ultimately (in Phase III), substantial further advances could be realized by the development of novel molecular and pathway-based biomarkers and statistical and in silico models that build on anticipated progress in understanding the pathways of human diseases and disorders. Such efforts would facilitate a gradual "reorientation" of QRA towards approaches that more directly link environmental exposures to human outcomes. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  14. Approaches to advancing quantitative human health risk assessment of environmental chemicals in the post-genomic era

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chiu, Weihsueh A., E-mail: chiu.weihsueh@epa.gov [National Center for Environmental Assessment, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington DC, 20460 (United States); Euling, Susan Y.; Scott, Cheryl Siegel; Subramaniam, Ravi P. [National Center for Environmental Assessment, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington DC, 20460 (United States)

    2013-09-15

    The contribution of genomics and associated technologies to human health risk assessment for environmental chemicals has focused largely on elucidating mechanisms of toxicity, as discussed in other articles in this issue. However, there is interest in moving beyond hazard characterization to making more direct impacts on quantitative risk assessment (QRA) — i.e., the determination of toxicity values for setting exposure standards and cleanup values. We propose that the evolution of QRA of environmental chemicals in the post-genomic era will involve three, somewhat overlapping phases in which different types of approaches begin to mature. The initial focus (in Phase I) has been and continues to be on “augmentation” of weight of evidence — using genomic and related technologies qualitatively to increase the confidence in and scientific basis of the results of QRA. Efforts aimed towards “integration” of these data with traditional animal-based approaches, in particular quantitative predictors, or surrogates, for the in vivo toxicity data to which they have been anchored are just beginning to be explored now (in Phase II). In parallel, there is a recognized need for “expansion” of the use of established biomarkers of susceptibility or risk of human diseases and disorders for QRA, particularly for addressing the issues of cumulative assessment and population risk. Ultimately (in Phase III), substantial further advances could be realized by the development of novel molecular and pathway-based biomarkers and statistical and in silico models that build on anticipated progress in understanding the pathways of human diseases and disorders. Such efforts would facilitate a gradual “reorientation” of QRA towards approaches that more directly link environmental exposures to human outcomes.

  15. Approaches to advancing quantitative human health risk assessment of environmental chemicals in the post-genomic era

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiu, Weihsueh A.; Euling, Susan Y.; Scott, Cheryl Siegel; Subramaniam, Ravi P.

    2013-01-01

    The contribution of genomics and associated technologies to human health risk assessment for environmental chemicals has focused largely on elucidating mechanisms of toxicity, as discussed in other articles in this issue. However, there is interest in moving beyond hazard characterization to making more direct impacts on quantitative risk assessment (QRA) — i.e., the determination of toxicity values for setting exposure standards and cleanup values. We propose that the evolution of QRA of environmental chemicals in the post-genomic era will involve three, somewhat overlapping phases in which different types of approaches begin to mature. The initial focus (in Phase I) has been and continues to be on “augmentation” of weight of evidence — using genomic and related technologies qualitatively to increase the confidence in and scientific basis of the results of QRA. Efforts aimed towards “integration” of these data with traditional animal-based approaches, in particular quantitative predictors, or surrogates, for the in vivo toxicity data to which they have been anchored are just beginning to be explored now (in Phase II). In parallel, there is a recognized need for “expansion” of the use of established biomarkers of susceptibility or risk of human diseases and disorders for QRA, particularly for addressing the issues of cumulative assessment and population risk. Ultimately (in Phase III), substantial further advances could be realized by the development of novel molecular and pathway-based biomarkers and statistical and in silico models that build on anticipated progress in understanding the pathways of human diseases and disorders. Such efforts would facilitate a gradual “reorientation” of QRA towards approaches that more directly link environmental exposures to human outcomes

  16. A randomized comparison of patients' understanding of number needed to treat and other common risk reduction formats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheridan, Stacey L; Pignone, Michael P; Lewis, Carmen L

    2003-11-01

    Commentators have suggested that patients may understand quantitative information about treatment benefits better when they are presented as numbers needed to treat (NNT) rather than as absolute or relative risk reductions. To determine whether NNT helps patients interpret treatment benefits better than absolute risk reduction (ARR), relative risk reduction (RRR), or a combination of all three of these risk reduction presentations (COMBO). Randomized cross-sectional survey. University internal medicine clinic. Three hundred fifty-seven men and women, ages 50 to 80, who presented for health care. Subjects were given written information about the baseline risk of a hypothetical "disease Y" and were asked (1) to compare the benefits of two drug treatments for disease Y, stating which provided more benefit; and (2) to calculate the effect of one of those drug treatments on a given baseline risk of disease. Risk information was presented to each subject in one of four randomly allocated risk formats: NNT, ARR, RRR, or COMBO. When asked to state which of two treatments provided more benefit, subjects who received the RRR format responded correctly most often (60% correct vs 43% for COMBO, 42% for ARR, and 30% for NNT, P =.001). Most subjects were unable to calculate the effect of drug treatment on the given baseline risk of disease, although subjects receiving the RRR and ARR formats responded correctly more often (21% and 17% compared to 7% for COMBO and 6% for NNT, P =.004). Patients are best able to interpret the benefits of treatment when they are presented in an RRR format with a given baseline risk of disease. ARR also is easily interpreted. NNT is often misinterpreted by patients and should not be used alone to communicate risk to patients.

  17. [A quantitative risk assessment model of salmonella on carcass in poultry slaughterhouse].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yu; Chen, Yuzhen; Hu, Chunguang; Zhang, Huaning; Bi, Zhenwang; Bi, Zhenqiang

    2015-05-01

    To construct a quantitative risk assessment model of salmonella on carcass in poultry slaughterhouse and to find out effective interventions to reduce salmonella contamination. We constructed a modular process risk model (MPRM) from evisceration to chilling in Excel Sheet using the data of the process parameters in poultry and the Salmomella concentration surveillance of Jinan in 2012. The MPRM was simulated by @ risk software. The concentration of salmonella on carcass after chilling was 1.96MPN/g which was calculated by model. The sensitive analysis indicated that the correlation coefficient of the concentration of salmonella after defeathering and in chilling pool were 0.84 and 0.34,which were the primary factors to the concentration of salmonella on carcass after chilling. The study provided a quantitative assessment model structure for salmonella on carcass in poultry slaughterhouse. The risk manager could control the contamination of salmonella on carcass after chilling by reducing the concentration of salmonella after defeathering and in chilling pool.

  18. Epidemiology and quantitation of environmental risk in humans from radiation and other agents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Castellani, Amleto

    1985-01-01

    The identification and quantitation of environmental risk in humans is one of the main problems to be solved in order to improve the protection of individuals and of human populations against physical and chemical pollutants. Epidemiology plays a central role in the evaluation of health risk directly in human populations. In this volume are collected 33 lectures presented at the AS! course on ''Epidemiology and quantitation of environmental risk in humans from radiation and other agents: potential and limitations'', sponsored by NATO and Italian Association of Radiobiology and organized by ENEA. The course has been devoted to a number of aspects of environmental risk analysis and evaluation based on epidemiological investigation. Basic epidemiological concepts and methods have been reviewed. Fundamentals of dosimetry and microdosimetry were presented in relation to the contribution of epidemiology in defining the dose effect relationships for radiation carcinogenesis and its relation with age, sex and ethnicity. The mechanisms of carcinogenesis as a multi-stage process were illustrated. One of the main topics was 'cancer epidemiology' and its correlation with: - occupational and non-occupational exposure to radiation - diagnostic and therapeutic irradiation - cancer proneness - hereditary and familiar diseases - abnormal response to carcinogens - environmental pollution in air and water - exposure to radon in mines and in building material - atomic bomb explosion - chemotherapy - dioxin and related compounds

  19. A quantitative approach for integrating multiple lines of evidence for the evaluation of environmental health risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jerome J. Schleier III

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Decision analysis often considers multiple lines of evidence during the decision making process. Researchers and government agencies have advocated for quantitative weight-of-evidence approaches in which multiple lines of evidence can be considered when estimating risk. Therefore, we utilized Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo to integrate several human-health risk assessment, biomonitoring, and epidemiology studies that have been conducted for two common insecticides (malathion and permethrin used for adult mosquito management to generate an overall estimate of risk quotient (RQ. The utility of the Bayesian inference for risk management is that the estimated risk represents a probability distribution from which the probability of exceeding a threshold can be estimated. The mean RQs after all studies were incorporated were 0.4386, with a variance of 0.0163 for malathion and 0.3281 with a variance of 0.0083 for permethrin. After taking into account all of the evidence available on the risks of ULV insecticides, the probability that malathion or permethrin would exceed a level of concern was less than 0.0001. Bayesian estimates can substantially improve decisions by allowing decision makers to estimate the probability that a risk will exceed a level of concern by considering seemingly disparate lines of evidence.

  20. Clinical Validity, Understandability, and Actionability of Online Cardiovascular Disease Risk Calculators: Systematic Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonner, Carissa; Fajardo, Michael Anthony; Hui, Samuel; Stubbs, Renee; Trevena, Lyndal

    2018-02-01

    Online health information is particularly important for cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention, where lifestyle changes are recommended until risk becomes high enough to warrant pharmacological intervention. Online information is abundant, but the quality is often poor and many people do not have adequate health literacy to access, understand, and use it effectively. This project aimed to review and evaluate the suitability of online CVD risk calculators for use by low health literate consumers in terms of clinical validity, understandability, and actionability. This systematic review of public websites from August to November 2016 used evaluation of clinical validity based on a high-risk patient profile and assessment of understandability and actionability using Patient Education Material Evaluation Tool for Print Materials. A total of 67 unique webpages and 73 unique CVD risk calculators were identified. The same high-risk patient profile produced widely variable CVD risk estimates, ranging from as little as 3% to as high as a 43% risk of a CVD event over the next 10 years. One-quarter (25%) of risk calculators did not specify what model these estimates were based on. The most common clinical model was Framingham (44%), and most calculators (77%) provided a 10-year CVD risk estimate. The calculators scored moderately on understandability (mean score 64%) and poorly on actionability (mean score 19%). The absolute percentage risk was stated in most (but not all) calculators (79%), and only 18% included graphical formats consistent with recommended risk communication guidelines. There is a plethora of online CVD risk calculators available, but they are not readily understandable and their actionability is poor. Entering the same clinical information produces widely varying results with little explanation. Developers need to address actionability as well as clinical validity and understandability to improve usefulness to consumers with low health literacy.

  1. Quantitative risk assessment of the New York State operated West Valley Radioactive Waste Disposal Area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrick, B John; Stetkar, John W; Bembia, Paul J

    2010-08-01

    This article is based on a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) that was performed on a radioactive waste disposal area within the Western New York Nuclear Service Center in western New York State. The QRA results were instrumental in the decision by the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority to support a strategy of in-place management of the disposal area for another decade. The QRA methodology adopted for this first of a kind application was a scenario-based approach in the framework of the triplet definition of risk (scenarios, likelihoods, consequences). The measure of risk is the frequency of occurrence of different levels of radiation dose to humans at prescribed locations. The risk from each scenario is determined by (1) the frequency of disruptive events or natural processes that cause a release of radioactive materials from the disposal area; (2) the physical form, quantity, and radionuclide content of the material that is released during each scenario; (3) distribution, dilution, and deposition of the released materials throughout the environment surrounding the disposal area; and (4) public exposure to the distributed material and the accumulated radiation dose from that exposure. The risks of the individual scenarios are assembled into a representation of the risk from the disposal area. In addition to quantifying the total risk to the public, the analysis ranks the importance of each contributing scenario, which facilitates taking corrective actions and implementing effective risk management. Perhaps most importantly, quantification of the uncertainties is an intrinsic part of the risk results. This approach to safety analysis has demonstrated many advantages of applying QRA principles to assessing the risk of facilities involving hazardous materials.

  2. What do men understand about lifetime risk following genetic testing? The effect of context and numeracy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rolison, Jonathan J; Hanoch, Yaniv; Miron-Shatz, Talya

    2012-07-01

    Genetic testing for gene mutations associated with specific cancers provides an opportunity for early detection, surveillance, and intervention (Smith, Cokkinides, & Brawley, 2008). Lifetime risk estimates provided by genetic testing refer to the risk of developing a specific disease within one's lifetime, and evidence suggests that this is important for the medical choices people make, as well as their future family and financial plans. The present studies tested whether adult men understand the lifetime risks of prostate cancer informed by genetic testing. In 2 experiments, adult men were asked to interpret the lifetime risk information provided in statements about risks of prostate cancer. Statement format was manipulated such that the most appropriate interpretation of risk statements referred to an absolute risk of cancer in experiment 1 and a relative risk in experiment 2. Experiment 1 revealed that few men correctly interpreted the lifetime risks of cancer when these refer to an absolute risk of cancer, and numeracy levels positively predicted correct responding. The proportion of correct responses was greatly improved in experiment 2 when the most appropriate interpretation of risk statements referred instead to a relative rather than an absolute risk, and numeracy levels were less involved. Understanding of lifetime risk information is often poor because individuals incorrectly believe that these refer to relative rather than absolute risks of cancer.

  3. A framework for understanding risk perception, explored from the perspective of the water practitioner.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobbie, Meredith Frances; Brown, Rebekah Ruth

    2014-02-01

    Sustainable urban water systems are likely to be hybrids of centralized and decentralized infrastructure, managed as an integrated system in water-sensitive cities. The technology for many of these systems is available. However, social and institutional barriers, which can be understood as deeply embedded risk perceptions, have impeded their implementation. Risk perceptions within the water sector are often unrecognized or unacknowledged, despite their role in risk management generally in informing value judgments and specifically in ranking risks to achieve management objectives. There has been very little examination of the role of these risk perceptions in advancing more sustainable water supply management through the adoption of alternative sources. To address this gap, this article presents a framework that can be used as a tool for understanding risk perceptions. The framework is built on the relational theory of risk and presents the range of human phenomena that might influence the perception of an "object at risk" in relation to a "risk object." It has been synthesized from a critical review of theoretical, conceptual, and empirical studies of perception broadly and risk perception specifically, and interpreted in relation to water practitioners. For a water practitioner, the risk object might be an alternative water system, a component, a process, or a technology, and the object at risk could be public or environmental health, profitability, or professional reputation. This framework has two important functions: to allow practitioners to understand their own and others' risk perceptions, which might differ, and to inform further empirical research. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  4. A Quantitative Measure For Evaluating Project Uncertainty Under Variation And Risk Effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Chenarani

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The effects of uncertainty on a project and the risk event as the consequence of uncertainty are analyzed. The uncertainty index is proposed as a quantitative measure for evaluating the uncertainty of a project. This is done by employing entropy as the indicator of system disorder and lack of information. By employing this index, the uncertainty of each activity and its increase due to risk effects as well as project uncertainty changes as a function of time can be assessed. The results are implemented and analyzed for a small turbojet engine development project as the case study. The results of this study can be useful for project managers and other stakeholders for selecting the most effective risk management and uncertainty controlling method.

  5. Fundamentals of risk management understanding, evaluating and implementing effective risk management

    CERN Document Server

    Hopkin, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Now more than ever, organizations must plan, response and recognize all forms of risks that they face. "Fundamentals of Risk Management", now in its second edition, provides a comprehensive introduction to the subject of commercial and business risk for anyone studying for a career in risk as well as a broad range of risk professionals. It examines the key components of risk management and its application with examples to demonstrate its benefit to organisations in the public and private sector. The second edition has been completely updated to take into account the greater influence of ISO 3100, the emergence of Governance Risk and Compliance (GRC) and the wide use of the bowtie method to illustrate risk management. In addition, there is now a chapter on the skills and competencies required by an effective risk manager.

  6. Quantitative microbial risk assessment to estimate the health risk from exposure to noroviruses in polluted surface water in South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Abel, Nicole; Mans, Janet; Taylor, Maureen B

    2017-10-01

    This study assessed the risks posed by noroviruses (NoVs) in surface water used for drinking, domestic, and recreational purposes in South Africa (SA), using a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) methodology that took a probabilistic approach coupling an exposure assessment with four dose-response models to account for uncertainty. Water samples from three rivers were found to be contaminated with NoV GI (80-1,900 gc/L) and GII (420-9,760 gc/L) leading to risk estimates that were lower for GI than GII. The volume of water consumed and the probabilities of infection were lower for domestic (2.91 × 10 -8 to 5.19 × 10 -1 ) than drinking water exposures (1.04 × 10 -5 to 7.24 × 10 -1 ). The annual probabilities of illness varied depending on the type of recreational water exposure with boating (3.91 × 10 -6 to 5.43 × 10 -1 ) and swimming (6.20 × 10 -6 to 6.42 × 10 -1 ) being slightly greater than playing next to/in the river (5.30 × 10 -7 to 5.48 × 10 -1 ). The QMRA was sensitive to the choice of dose-response model. The risk of NoV infection or illness from contaminated surface water is extremely high in SA, especially for lower socioeconomic individuals, but is similar to reported risks from limited international studies.

  7. Revisiting support optimization at the Driskos tunnel using a quantitative risk approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Connor Langford

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available With the scale and cost of geotechnical engineering projects increasing rapidly over the past few decades, there is a clear need for the careful consideration of calculated risks in design. While risk is typically dealt with subjectively through the use of conservative design parameters, with the advent of reliability-based methods, this no longer needs to be the case. Instead, a quantitative risk approach can be considered that incorporates uncertainty in ground conditions directly into the design process to determine the variable ground response and support loads. This allows for the optimization of support on the basis of both worker safety and economic risk. This paper presents the application of such an approach to review the design of the initial lining system along a section of the Driskos twin tunnels as part of the Egnatia Odos highway in northern Greece. Along this section of tunnel, weak rock masses were encountered as well as high in situ stress conditions, which led to excessive deformations and failure of the as built temporary support. Monitoring data were used to validate the rock mass parameters selected in this area and a risk approach was used to determine, in hindsight, the most appropriate support category with respect to the cost of installation and expected cost of failure. Different construction sequences were also considered in the context of both convenience and risk cost.

  8. A quantitative risk assessment model to evaluate effective border control measures for rabies prevention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weng, Hsin-Yi; Wu, Pei-I; Yang, Ping-Cheng; Tsai, Yi-Lun; Chang, Chao-Chin

    2009-01-01

    Border control is the primary method to prevent rabies emergence. This study developed a quantitative risk model incorporating stochastic processes to evaluate whether border control measures could efficiently prevent rabies introduction through importation of cats and dogs using Taiwan as an example. Both legal importation and illegal smuggling were investigated. The impacts of reduced quarantine and/or waiting period on the risk of rabies introduction were also evaluated. The results showed that Taiwan’s current animal importation policy could effectively prevent rabies introduction through legal importation of cats and dogs. The median risk of a rabid animal to penetrate current border control measures and enter Taiwan was 5.33 × 10−8 (95th percentile: 3.20 × 10−7). However, illegal smuggling may pose Taiwan to the great risk of rabies emergence. Reduction of quarantine and/or waiting period would affect the risk differently, depending on the applied assumptions, such as increased vaccination coverage, enforced custom checking, and/or change in number of legal importations. Although the changes in the estimated risk under the assumed alternatives were not substantial except for completely abolishing quarantine, the consequences of rabies introduction may yet be considered to be significant in a rabies-free area. Therefore, a comprehensive benefit-cost analysis needs to be conducted before recommending these alternative measures. PMID:19822125

  9. Risk of vertebral insufficiency fractures in relation to compressive strength predicted by quantitative computed tomography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biggemann, M.; Hilweg, D.; Seidel, S.; Horst, M.; Brinckmann, P.

    1991-01-01

    Vertebral insufficiency fractures may result from excessive loading of normal and routine loading of osteoporotic spines. Fractures occur when the mechanical load exceeds the vertebral compressive strength, i.e., the maximum load a vertebra can tolerate. Vertebral compressive strength is determined by trabecular bone density and the size of end-plate area. Both parameters can be measured non-invasively by quanti-tative computed tomography (QCT). In 75 patients compressive strength (i.e., trabecular bone density and endplate area) of the vertebra L3 was determined using QCT. In addition, conventional radiographs of the spines were analysed for the prevalence of insufficiency fractures in each case. By relating fracture prevalence to strength, 3 fracture risk groups were found: a high-risk group with strength values of L3 5 kN and a fracture risk near 0 percent. Biomechanical measurements and model calculations indicate that spinal loads of 3 to 4 kN at L3/4 will be common in everyday activities. These data and the results described above suggest that spines with strength values of L3<3 kN are at an extremely high risk of insufficiency fractures in daily life. Advantages of fracture risk assessment by strength determination over risk estimation based on clinically used trabecular bone density measurements are discussed. (author). 18 refs.; 4 figs

  10. Presenting quantitative information about decision outcomes: a risk communication primer for patient decision aid developers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trevena, L.J.; Zikmund-Fisher, B.J.; Edwards, A.; Gaissmaier, W.; Galesic, M.; Han, P.K.J.; King, J.; Lawson, M.L.; Linder, S.K.; Lipkus, I.; Ozanne, E.; Peters, E.; Timmermans, D.R.M.; Woloshin, S.

    2013-01-01

    Background: Making evidence-based decisions often requires comparison of two or more options. Research-based evidence may exist which quantifies how likely the outcomes are for each option. Understanding these numeric estimates improves patients' risk perception and leads to better informed decision

  11. Quantitative autistic trait measurements index background genetic risk for ASD in Hispanic families.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Page, Joshua; Constantino, John Nicholas; Zambrana, Katherine; Martin, Eden; Tunc, Ilker; Zhang, Yi; Abbacchi, Anna; Messinger, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    Recent studies have indicated that quantitative autistic traits (QATs) of parents reflect inherited liabilities that may index background genetic risk for clinical autism spectrum disorder (ASD) in their offspring. Moreover, preferential mating for QATs has been observed as a potential factor in concentrating autistic liabilities in some families across generations. Heretofore, intergenerational studies of QATs have focused almost exclusively on Caucasian populations-the present study explored these phenomena in a well-characterized Hispanic population. The present study examined QAT scores in siblings and parents of 83 Hispanic probands meeting research diagnostic criteria for ASD, and 64 non-ASD controls, using the Social Responsiveness Scale-2 (SRS-2). Ancestry of the probands was characterized by genotype, using information from 541,929 single nucleotide polymorphic markers. In families of Hispanic children with an ASD diagnosis, the pattern of quantitative trait correlations observed between ASD-affected children and their first-degree relatives (ICCs on the order of 0.20), between unaffected first-degree relatives in ASD-affected families (sibling/mother ICC = 0.36; sibling/father ICC = 0.53), and between spouses (mother/father ICC = 0.48) were in keeping with the influence of transmitted background genetic risk and strong preferential mating for variation in quantitative autistic trait burden. Results from analysis of ancestry-informative genetic markers among probands in this sample were consistent with that from other Hispanic populations. Quantitative autistic traits represent measurable indices of inherited liability to ASD in Hispanic families. The accumulation of autistic traits occurs within generations, between spouses, and across generations, among Hispanic families affected by ASD. The occurrence of preferential mating for QATs-the magnitude of which may vary across cultures-constitutes a mechanism by which background genetic liability

  12. A methodology for the quantitative risk assessment of major accidents triggered by seismic events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Antonioni, Giacomo; Spadoni, Gigliola; Cozzani, Valerio

    2007-01-01

    A procedure for the quantitative risk assessment of accidents triggered by seismic events in industrial facilities was developed. The starting point of the procedure was the use of available historical data to assess the expected frequencies and the severity of seismic events. Available equipment-dependant failure probability models (vulnerability or fragility curves) were used to assess the damage probability of equipment items due to a seismic event. An analytic procedure was subsequently developed to identify, evaluate the credibility and finally assess the expected consequences of all the possible scenarios that may follow the seismic events. The procedure was implemented in a GIS-based software tool in order to manage the high number of event sequences that are likely to be generated in large industrial facilities. The developed methodology requires a limited amount of additional data with respect to those used in a conventional QRA, and yields with a limited effort a preliminary quantitative assessment of the contribution of the scenarios triggered by earthquakes to the individual and societal risk indexes. The application of the methodology to several case-studies evidenced that the scenarios initiated by seismic events may have a relevant influence on industrial risk, both raising the overall expected frequency of single scenarios and causing specific severe scenarios simultaneously involving several plant units

  13. Affordable, automatic quantitative fall risk assessment based on clinical balance scales and Kinect data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colagiorgio, P; Romano, F; Sardi, F; Moraschini, M; Sozzi, A; Bejor, M; Ricevuti, G; Buizza, A; Ramat, S

    2014-01-01

    The problem of a correct fall risk assessment is becoming more and more critical with the ageing of the population. In spite of the available approaches allowing a quantitative analysis of the human movement control system's performance, the clinical assessment and diagnostic approach to fall risk assessment still relies mostly on non-quantitative exams, such as clinical scales. This work documents our current effort to develop a novel method to assess balance control abilities through a system implementing an automatic evaluation of exercises drawn from balance assessment scales. Our aim is to overcome the classical limits characterizing these scales i.e. limited granularity and inter-/intra-examiner reliability, to obtain objective scores and more detailed information allowing to predict fall risk. We used Microsoft Kinect to record subjects' movements while performing challenging exercises drawn from clinical balance scales. We then computed a set of parameters quantifying the execution of the exercises and fed them to a supervised classifier to perform a classification based on the clinical score. We obtained a good accuracy (~82%) and especially a high sensitivity (~83%).

  14. A Model for Understanding the Genetic Basis for Disparity in Prostate Cancer Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-10-01

    AWARD NUMBER: W81XWH-15-1-0529 TITLE: A Model for Understanding the Genetic Basis for Disparity in Prostate Cancer Risk PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR...AND SUBTITLE A Model for Understanding the Genetic Basis for Disparity in Prostate Cancer Risk 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER W81XWH-15-1...STATEMENT Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 14. ABSTRACT Prostate cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer in

  15. New Approaches to Transport Project Assessment: Reference Scenario Forecasting and Quantitative Risk Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang

    2010-01-01

    however has proved that the point estimates derived from such analyses are embedded with a large degree of uncertainty. Thus, a new scheme was proposed in terms of applying quantitative risk analysis (QRA) and Monte Carlo simulation in order to represent the uncertainties within the cost-benefit analysis....... Additionally, the handling of uncertainties is supplemented by making use of the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits (user demands i.e. travel time savings) and underestimating investment costs....

  16. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Tutorial Installation of Software for Watershed Modeling in Support of QMRA - Updated 2017

    Science.gov (United States)

    This tutorial provides instructions for accessing, retrieving, and downloading the following software to install on a host computer in support of Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) modeling: • QMRA Installation • SDMProjectBuilder (which includes the Microbial ...

  17. Quantitative meta-analytic approaches for the analysis of animal toxicology and epidemiologic data in human health risk assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Often, human health risk assessments have relied on qualitative approaches for hazard identification to integrate evidence across multiple studies to conclude whether particular hazards exist. However, quantitative approaches for evidence integration, including the application o...

  18. Risk perception: expert opinion versus public understanding. [Of radioactive waste repositories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, J

    1987-02-01

    A research project looking at the public's attitudes towards the siting of radioactive waste depositories is reported. The risk perception studies seek to compare expert and lay understanding of risk. Adverse public reactions to risk can only be understood if it is known how people relate to risks in their everyday or working lives. Social trends and experiences are important, for example, the adverse public opinion on the siting of nuclear waste facilities. A number of elements have been identified as common to different risk areas such as chemicals, drugs, food or radioactive waste. These are the clashing of values, polarization of beliefs or clashes of interest.

  19. Modeling number of bacteria per food unit in comparison to bacterial concentration in quantitative risk assessment: impact on risk estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pouillot, Régis; Chen, Yuhuan; Hoelzer, Karin

    2015-02-01

    When developing quantitative risk assessment models, a fundamental consideration for risk assessors is to decide whether to evaluate changes in bacterial levels in terms of concentrations or in terms of bacterial numbers. Although modeling bacteria in terms of integer numbers may be regarded as a more intuitive and rigorous choice, modeling bacterial concentrations is more popular as it is generally less mathematically complex. We tested three different modeling approaches in a simulation study. The first approach considered bacterial concentrations; the second considered the number of bacteria in contaminated units, and the third considered the expected number of bacteria in contaminated units. Simulation results indicate that modeling concentrations tends to overestimate risk compared to modeling the number of bacteria. A sensitivity analysis using a regression tree suggests that processes which include drastic scenarios consisting of combinations of large bacterial inactivation followed by large bacterial growth frequently lead to a >10-fold overestimation of the average risk when modeling concentrations as opposed to bacterial numbers. Alternatively, the approach of modeling the expected number of bacteria in positive units generates results similar to the second method and is easier to use, thus potentially representing a promising compromise. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  20. Quantitative risk assessment of human salmonellosis in the smallholder pig value chains in urban of Vietnam.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dang-Xuan, Sinh; Nguyen-Viet, Hung; Unger, Fred; Pham-Duc, Phuc; Grace, Delia; Tran-Thi, Ngan; Barot, Max; Pham-Thi, Ngoc; Makita, Kohei

    2017-02-01

    To quantify salmonellosis risk in humans through consumption of boiled pork in urban Hung Yen Province, Vietnam, using a quantitative microbial risk assessment. We collected 302 samples along the pork value chain in Hung Yen between April 2014 and February 2015. We developed a model in @Risk, based on microbiological, market, and household surveys on cooking, cross-contamination and consumption, and conducted sensitivity analysis. Salmonella prevalence of pen floor swabs, slaughterhouse carcasses and cut pork were 33.3, 41.7 and 44.4%, respectively. The annual incidence rate of salmonellosis in humans was estimated to be 17.7% (90% CI 0.89-45.96). Parameters with the greatest influence risk were household pork handling practice followed by prevalence in pork sold in the central market. Wide confidence interval in the incidence estimate was mainly due to the variability in the degree of reduction in bacteria concentration by cooking, and pork consumption pattern. The risk of salmonellosis in humans due to boiled pork consumption appears to be high. Control measures may include improving the safety of retailed pork and improving household hygiene.

  1. A Quantitative Approach to Credit Risk Management in the Underwriting Process for the Retail Portfolio

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreea Costea

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The core of this paper encloses a mathematical approach of credit risk management, based on a scorecard model used in the bank’s underwriting process. The main purpose of this paper is to present how to develop, validate and apply a rating model in practice. Using 21568 loan applications provided by one of the largest banks from Romania, a scorecard is built for the underwriting purposes. The customer data used in the modeling is based on socio-demographic characteristics. The model is developed according to a set of statistical methods for parameter estimation. A real-life example of how to use such a model in the strategic decisions of a bank is presented. The cut-off score for the acceptance of the applications is calibrated to a potential risk appetite of the main four banks in Romania. From an evaluative perspective, this paper is compatible with an exploratory approach to quantitative research methodology.

  2. Does Your Heart Forecast help practitioner understanding and confidence with cardiovascular disease risk communication?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wells, Sue; Kerr, Andrew; Broadbent, Elizabeth; MacKenzie, Craig; Cole, Karl; McLachlan, Andy

    2011-03-01

    Explaining what cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk means and engaging in shared decision-making regarding risk factor modification is challenging. An electronic CVD risk visualisation tool containing multiple risk communication strategies (Your Heart Forecast) was designed in 2009. To assess whether this tool facilitated explaining CVD risk to primary care patients. Health professionals who accessed a Primary Health Organisation website or who attended educational peer groups over a three-month period were invited to complete questionnaires before and after viewing a four-minute video about the tool. Respondents were asked to make an informed guess of the CVD risk of a 35-year-old patient (actual CVD risk 5%) and rate the following sentence as being true or false: 'If there were 100 people like Mr Andrews, five would go on to have a cardiac event in the next five years.' They also were asked to rank their understanding of CVD risk and confidence in explaining the concept to patients. Fifty health professionals (37 GPs, 12 practice nurses, one other) completed before and after questionnaires. Respondents' CVD risk estimates pre-video ranged from confidence in explaining risk reduced in range and shifted towards greater efficacy. Whether this tool facilitates discussions of CVD risk with patients and improves patient understanding and lifestyle behaviour needs to be evaluated in a randomised trial.

  3. Quantitative rock-fall hazard and risk assessment for Yosemite Valley, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stock, G. M.; Luco, N.; Collins, B. D.; Harp, E.; Reichenbach, P.; Frankel, K. L.

    2011-12-01

    Rock falls are a considerable hazard in Yosemite Valley, California with more than 835 rock falls and other slope movements documented since 1857. Thus, rock falls pose potentially significant risk to the nearly four million annual visitors to Yosemite National Park. Building on earlier hazard assessment work by the U.S. Geological Survey, we performed a quantitative rock-fall hazard and risk assessment for Yosemite Valley. This work was aided by several new data sets, including precise Geographic Information System (GIS) maps of rock-fall deposits, airborne and terrestrial LiDAR-based point cloud data and digital elevation models, and numerical ages of talus deposits. Using Global Position Systems (GPS), we mapped the positions of over 500 boulders on the valley floor and measured their distance relative to the mapped base of talus. Statistical analyses of these data yielded an initial hazard zone that is based on the 90th percentile distance of rock-fall boulders beyond the talus edge. This distance was subsequently scaled (either inward or outward from the 90th percentile line) based on rock-fall frequency information derived from a combination of cosmogenic beryllium-10 exposure dating of boulders beyond the edge of the talus, and computer model simulations of rock-fall runout. The scaled distances provide the basis for a new hazard zone on the floor of Yosemite Valley. Once this zone was delineated, we assembled visitor, employee, and resident use data for each structure within the hazard zone to quantitatively assess risk exposure. Our results identify areas within the new hazard zone that may warrant more detailed study, for example rock-fall susceptibility, which can be assessed through examination of high-resolution photographs, structural measurements on the cliffs, and empirical calculations derived from LiDAR point cloud data. This hazard and risk information is used to inform placement of existing and potential future infrastructure in Yosemite Valley.

  4. Improvement of mutual understanding in risk communication by application of a debate support system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shimoda, Hiroshi; Matsuda, Koji; Ishii, Hirotake; Yoshikawa, Hidekazu

    2010-01-01

    Given the recent problem of climate change, nuclear power has become perhaps the world's most important energy source. In Japan, however, it is difficult to build new nuclear facilities. One of the reasons for such difficulty lies in problems in risk communication. In this study, a support method has been proposed to improve mutual understanding in risk communication. The authors paid especial attention at the learning effect of debating and the benefits of employing a debate support system. A laboratory experiment including 30 university students was conducted in order to evaluate the proposed method. Results showed that the use of the system could improve mutual understanding especially with respect to the factors of risk 'reduction measures' and 'accident management'. In addition, it was found that using the system and debating from 'opposite positions' could improve subjective mutual understanding; however, this practice showed no effectiveness in terms of improving objective mutual understanding. (author)

  5. Understanding and acknowledging the ice throw hazard - consequences for regulatory frameworks, risk perception and risk communication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bredesen, R. E.; Drapalik, M.; Butt, B.

    2017-11-01

    This study attempts to provide the necessary framework required to make sufficiently informed decisions regarding the safety implications of ice throw. The framework elaborates on how to cope with uncertainties, and how to describe results in a meaningful and useful manner to decision makers. Moreover, it points out the moral, judicial and economical obligations of wind turbine owners such that they are able to minimize risk of ice throws as much as possible. Building on the strength of knowledge as well as accounting for uncertainty are also essential in enabling clear communication with stakeholders on the most important/critical/vital issues. With increasing empirical evidence, one can assign a higher confidence level on the expert opinions on safety. Findings regarding key uncertainties of ice risk assessments are presented here to support the ongoing IEA Wind Task 19's work on creating the international guidelines on ice risk assessment due in 2018 (Krenn et al. 2017)[1-6]. In addition the study also incorporates the findings of a Norwegian information project, which focuses on the ice throw hazard for the public (Bredesen, Flage, Butt, Winterwind 2018)[7-9]. This includes measures to reduce damage and hazard from wind turbines for the general public. Recent theory of risk assessment questions the use of risk criteria for achieving optimum risk reduction and favours the use of the ALARA (as low as reasonably achievable) principle. Given the several practical problems associated with the ALARA approach (e.g. judicial realization), a joint approach, which uses a minimum set of criteria as well as the obligation to meet ALARA is suggested (associated with acceptable cost). The actual decision about acceptance criteria or obligations is a societal one, thus suggestions can be made at best. Risk acceptance, risk perception and risk communication are inextricably linked and should thus never be considered separately. Risk communication can shape risk perception

  6. Understanding kidney transplant patients' treatment choices: The interaction of emotion with medical and social influences on risk preferences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrington, Jean; Morgan, Myfanwy

    2016-04-01

    Following renal transplantation patients experience on-going immunosuppressant medication to reduce the risk of graft rejection. Over the long term the side effects of immunosuppressive drugs may affect graft survival and significantly increase risks of cancers, stroke and cardiovascular disease. To reduce these risks research is underway to develop a biomarker test to identify those patients who are likely to be 'tolerant' to their graft and therefore able to reduce immunosuppression. Biomarker tests may however incorrectly identify some patients as tolerant, thus jeopardising their graft. Following a quantitative assessment of risk preferences we undertook a qualitative study to investigate the range of influences that shaped the substantial variations found in the level of risk transplant recipients were hypothetically willing to take. In-depth interviews were carried out in the United Kingdom between May 2013 and July 2014 with 24 transplant recipients all of whom had stable kidney graft function. These interviews identified a range of factors that patients take into account when making risk assessments, including familial views, trust and the ritual of 'gift exchange' that permeates the social space of kidney transplantation. Our data support the notion that emotion is not part of a linear process, preceding and separate to reason, but is intertwined with personal understanding and perception of risk and involves a complex interplay between different influences on decision-making. Our data also support Lupton's view that risk judgements are shared and collective rather than located within the individual and suggests that patient choice rather than involving a purely rational weighing of medical benefit is often based on influences that may not accord with the framework nor intention of medical professionals and medical research. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Where Lies the Risk? An Ecological Approach to Understanding Child Mental Health Risk and Vulnerabilities in Sub-Saharan Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Atilola, Olayinka

    2014-01-01

    Efforts at improving child-health and development initiatives in sub-Saharan Africa had focused on the physical health of children due to the neglect of child and adolescent mental health (CAMH) policy initiatives. A thorough and broad-based understanding of the prevalent child mental-health risk and vulnerability factors is needed to successfully articulate CAMH policies. In this discourse, we present a narrative on the child mental-health risk and vulnerability factors in sub-Saharan Africa...

  8. Quantitative assessments of indoor air pollution and the risk of childhood acute leukemia in Shanghai

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gao, Yu; Zhang, Yan; Kamijima, Michihiro; Sakai, Kiyoshi; Khalequzzaman, Md; Nakajima, Tamie; Shi, Rong; Wang, Xiaojin; Chen, Didi; Ji, Xiaofan; Han, Kaiyi; Tian, Ying

    2014-01-01

    We investigated the association between indoor air pollutants and childhood acute leukemia (AL). A total of 105 newly diagnosed cases and 105 1:1 gender-, age-, and hospital-matched controls were included. Measurements of indoor pollutants (including nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) and 17 types of volatile organic compounds (VOCs)) were taken with diffusive samplers for 64 pairs of cases and controls. Higher concentrations of NO 2 and almost half of VOCs were observed in the cases than in the controls and were associated with the increased risk of childhood AL. The use of synthetic materials for wall decoration and furniture in bedroom was related to the risk of childhood AL. Renovating the house in the last 5 years, changing furniture in the last 5 years, closing the doors and windows overnight in the winter and/or summer, paternal smoking history and outdoor pollutants affected VOC concentrations. Our results support the association between childhood AL and indoor air pollution. - Highlights: • We firstly assessed the effects of indoor air pollution on childhood AL in China. • Indoor air pollutants were assessed by questionnaire and quantitative measurements. • NO 2 and 17 types of VOCs were measured in bedrooms of both cases and controls. • Higher concentrations of indoor air pollutants increased the risk of childhood AL. • Indoor behavioral factors and outdoor pollution might affect indoor air pollution. - Higher concentrations of indoor air pollutants were related to an elevated risk of childhood AL

  9. Risk avoidance versus risk reduction: a framework and segmentation profile for understanding adolescent sexual activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopkins, Christopher D; Tanner, John F; Raymond, Mary Anne

    2004-01-01

    The teen birthrate in the United States is twice that of other industrialized nations. Adolescents in the U.S. are among high-risk groups for HIV/AIDS and other sexually transmitted diseases. As a result, the Department of Health and Human Services changed its policy on the promotion of abstinence to teenagers from a focus on a risk reduction strategy to a focus on a risk avoidance strategy. In order to create more effective risk avoidance as well as risk reduction campaigns, this study proposes a framework to illustrate the distinction that teens make between spontaneous sexual activity and planned sexual activity, as well as those teens that make a commitment to abstinence versus abstinence by default. Furthermore, this study classifies teens into three behavior segments (abstemious, promiscuous and monogamous) and then assesses specific differences that exist within these groups relative to their attitudes and perceptions concerning abstinence, sexual activity, contraception, fear and norms. This change in focus from a risk reduction to a risk avoidance strategy has important implications for social marketing, public policy and marketing theory.

  10. Discursive junctions in flood risk governance - A comparative understanding in six European countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaufmann, Maria; Wiering, Mark

    2017-07-01

    Flood risks are managed differently across Europe. While a number of research studies aim to understand these differences, they tend to pay little attention to the social constructionist aspects of flood risk governance, i.e. the meaning that societies give to flood risk and governance. This paper aims to address this gap by understanding differences in flood risk management approaches (FRMA) from a discursive-institutional perspective. Based on this perspective, an analytical framework was developed to systematically analyse and compare discourses pertaining to flood risk and its governance in six European member states (England (the United Kingdom), Flanders (Belgium), France, the Netherlands, Poland and Sweden). Correspondingly, this paper demonstrates how the hegemonic discursive-institutional patterns of flood risk governance differ between the six European countries. These differences may influence the capability of countries to learn from each other, adopt new FRMAs or cooperate with each other. Moreover, the paper argues that differences in discourses partially account for the differences in FRMAs between countries, combined with other factors. Additionally, broader implications are discussed. For example, the research findings imply that some discourses tend to favour or disfavour other discourses, and that they additionally also tend to favour particular FRMAs; e.g. the flood risk discourse pertaining to high manageability of risks seems to favour a governance discourse of collectivity and central governance. The different insights imply that further research is necessary to understand the complex interaction of discourses and institutional arrangements. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for Escherichia coli O157:H7 in Fresh-Cut Lettuce.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pang, Hao; Lambertini, Elisabetta; Buchanan, Robert L; Schaffner, Donald W; Pradhan, Abani K

    2017-02-01

    Leafy green vegetables, including lettuce, are recognized as potential vehicles for foodborne pathogens such as Escherichia coli O157:H7. Fresh-cut lettuce is potentially at high risk of causing foodborne illnesses, as it is generally consumed without cooking. Quantitative microbial risk assessments (QMRAs) are gaining more attention as an effective tool to assess and control potential risks associated with foodborne pathogens. This study developed a QMRA model for E. coli O157:H7 in fresh-cut lettuce and evaluated the effects of different potential intervention strategies on the reduction of public health risks. The fresh-cut lettuce production and supply chain was modeled from field production, with both irrigation water and soil as initial contamination sources, to consumption at home. The baseline model (with no interventions) predicted a mean probability of 1 illness per 10 million servings and a mean of 2,160 illness cases per year in the United States. All intervention strategies evaluated (chlorine, ultrasound and organic acid, irradiation, bacteriophage, and consumer washing) significantly reduced the estimated mean number of illness cases when compared with the baseline model prediction (from 11.4- to 17.9-fold reduction). Sensitivity analyses indicated that retail and home storage temperature were the most important factors affecting the predicted number of illness cases. The developed QMRA model provided a framework for estimating risk associated with consumption of E. coli O157:H7-contaminated fresh-cut lettuce and can guide the evaluation and development of intervention strategies aimed at reducing such risk.

  12. Emerging systems biology approaches in nanotoxicology: Towards a mechanism-based understanding of nanomaterial hazard and risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Costa, Pedro M.; Fadeel, Bengt, E-mail: Bengt.Fadeel@ki.se

    2016-05-15

    Engineered nanomaterials are being developed for a variety of technological applications. However, the increasing use of nanomaterials in society has led to concerns about their potential adverse effects on human health and the environment. During the first decade of nanotoxicological research, the realization has emerged that effective risk assessment of the multitudes of new nanomaterials would benefit from a comprehensive understanding of their toxicological mechanisms, which is difficult to achieve with traditional, low-throughput, single end-point oriented approaches. Therefore, systems biology approaches are being progressively applied within the nano(eco)toxicological sciences. This novel paradigm implies that the study of biological systems should be integrative resulting in quantitative and predictive models of nanomaterial behaviour in a biological system. To this end, global ‘omics’ approaches with which to assess changes in genes, proteins, metabolites, etc. are deployed allowing for computational modelling of the biological effects of nanomaterials. Here, we highlight omics and systems biology studies in nanotoxicology, aiming towards the implementation of a systems nanotoxicology and mechanism-based risk assessment of nanomaterials. - Highlights: • Systems nanotoxicology is a multi-disciplinary approach to quantitative modelling. • Transcriptomics, proteomics and metabolomics remain the most common methods. • Global “omics” techniques should be coupled to computational modelling approaches. • The discovery of nano-specific toxicity pathways and biomarkers is a prioritized goal. • Overall, experimental nanosafety research must endeavour reproducibility and relevance.

  13. Emerging systems biology approaches in nanotoxicology: Towards a mechanism-based understanding of nanomaterial hazard and risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Costa, Pedro M.; Fadeel, Bengt

    2016-01-01

    Engineered nanomaterials are being developed for a variety of technological applications. However, the increasing use of nanomaterials in society has led to concerns about their potential adverse effects on human health and the environment. During the first decade of nanotoxicological research, the realization has emerged that effective risk assessment of the multitudes of new nanomaterials would benefit from a comprehensive understanding of their toxicological mechanisms, which is difficult to achieve with traditional, low-throughput, single end-point oriented approaches. Therefore, systems biology approaches are being progressively applied within the nano(eco)toxicological sciences. This novel paradigm implies that the study of biological systems should be integrative resulting in quantitative and predictive models of nanomaterial behaviour in a biological system. To this end, global ‘omics’ approaches with which to assess changes in genes, proteins, metabolites, etc. are deployed allowing for computational modelling of the biological effects of nanomaterials. Here, we highlight omics and systems biology studies in nanotoxicology, aiming towards the implementation of a systems nanotoxicology and mechanism-based risk assessment of nanomaterials. - Highlights: • Systems nanotoxicology is a multi-disciplinary approach to quantitative modelling. • Transcriptomics, proteomics and metabolomics remain the most common methods. • Global “omics” techniques should be coupled to computational modelling approaches. • The discovery of nano-specific toxicity pathways and biomarkers is a prioritized goal. • Overall, experimental nanosafety research must endeavour reproducibility and relevance.

  14. Informed consent in contrast-enhanced CT. Understanding of risks and identification of possible prognostic factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roehrl, S.; Dendl, L.M.; Scharf, G.; Stroszczynski, C.; Schreyer, A.G.; Zeman, F.

    2015-01-01

    Aim of our study was to assess understanding of risks associated with intravascular application of contrast media in patients undergoing CT examination. We wanted to evaluate epidemiologic and socio-economic prognostic factors for a higher understanding of risks. Additionally, we evaluated a possible correlation between an extensive, outcome-oriented oral informed consent and better understanding of risks. 120 patients distributed in 2 study arms participated in this prospective study. In study arm I, the treating physician was not informed that his patients participated in a study whereas the physician in study arm II knew about the survey. After the informed consent we performed a standardized, semi-structured interview to enquire the 3 most frequent risks of intravascular application of contrast agents (anaphylactoid reactions, nephropathy and thyrotoxic crisis) and epidemiologic data. The understanding of the risks was evaluated using a 6 point scale. Patients scored 3.73 points in study arm I and 4.93 points in arm II on average. The statistical difference between both study arms was highly significant (p < 0.001). In a combined logistic regression analysis, only ''higher education'' (p = 0.001) and participation in study arm II (p =0.001) showed a significant connection to a better understanding of risks. Patients profit from an outcome-oriented and individualized informed consent. Due to the significant correlation between educational level and understanding of risks, informed consent should be adjusted to the educational status of the individual patient, e.g. by using didactic aids or individualized information sheets.

  15. Skin sensitisation quantitative risk assessment (QRA) based on aggregate dermal exposure to methylisothiazolinone in personal care and household cleaning products.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ezendam, J; Bokkers, B G H; Bil, W; Delmaar, J E

    2017-01-01

    Contact allergy to preservatives is an important public health problem. Ideally, new substances should be evaluated for the risk on skin sensitization before market entry, for example by using a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) as developed for fragrances. As a proof-of-concept, this QRA was

  16. Communicating global cardiovascular risk: are icon arrays better than numerical estimates in improving understanding, recall and perception of risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz, Jorge G; Andrade, Allen D; Garcia-Retamero, Rocio; Anam, Ramanakumar; Rodriguez, Remberto; Sharit, Joseph

    2013-12-01

    Experts recommend that adults have their global cardiovascular risk assessed. We investigated whether icon arrays increase understanding, recall, perception of CVR, and behavioral intent as compared with numerical information. Male outpatient veterans, at an intermediate to high cardiovascular risk participated in a randomized controlled trial of a computer tutorial presenting individualized risk. Message format was presented in 3 formats: percentages, frequencies, and frequencies with icon arrays. We assessed understanding immediately (T1) and recall at 20 min (T2) and 2 weeks (T3) after the intervention. We assessed perceptions of importance/seriousness, intent to adhere, and self-efficacy at T1. Self-reported adherence was assessed at T3. One-hundred and twenty male veterans participated. Age, education, race, health literacy and numeracy were comparable at baseline. There were no differences in understanding at T1 [p = .31] and recall at T3 [p = .10]. Accuracy was inferior with frequencies with icon arrays than percentages or frequencies at T2 [p ≤ .001]. There were no differences in perception of seriousness and importance for heart disease, behavioral intent, self-efficacy, actual adherence and satisfaction. Icon arrays may impair short-term recall of CVR. Icon arrays will not necessarily result in better understanding and recall of medical risk in all patients. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

  17. Quantitative microbiological risk assessment in food industry: Theory and practical application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Membré, Jeanne-Marie; Boué, Géraldine

    2018-04-01

    The objective of this article is to bring scientific background as well as practical hints and tips to guide risk assessors and modelers who want to develop a quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) in an industrial context. MRA aims at determining the public health risk associated with biological hazards in a food. Its implementation in industry enables to compare the efficiency of different risk reduction measures, and more precisely different operational settings, by predicting their effect on the final model output. The first stage in MRA is to clearly define the purpose and scope with stakeholders, risk assessors and modelers. Then, a probabilistic model is developed; this includes schematically three important phases. Firstly, the model structure has to be defined, i.e. the connections between different operational processing steps. An important step in food industry is the thermal processing leading to microbial inactivation. Growth of heat-treated surviving microorganisms and/or post-process contamination during storage phase is also important to take into account. Secondly, mathematical equations are determined to estimate the change of microbial load after each processing step. This phase includes the construction of model inputs by collecting data or eliciting experts. Finally, the model outputs are obtained by simulation procedures, they have to be interpreted and communicated to targeted stakeholders. In this latter phase, tools such as what-if scenarios provide an essential added value. These different MRA phases are illustrated through two examples covering important issues in industry. The first one covers process optimization in a food safety context, the second one covers shelf-life determination in a food quality context. Although both contexts required the same methodology, they do not have the same endpoint: up to the human health in the foie gras case-study illustrating here a safety application, up to the food portion in the

  18. Fatalities in high altitude mountaineering: a review of quantitative risk estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinbruch, Stephan; Nordby, Karl-Christian

    2013-12-01

    Quantitative estimates for mortality in high altitude mountaineering are reviewed. Special emphasis is placed on the heterogeneity of the risk estimates and on confounding. Crude estimates for mortality are on the order of 1/1000 to 40/1000 persons above base camp, for both expedition members and high altitude porters. High altitude porters have mostly a lower risk than expedition members (risk ratio for all Nepalese peaks requiring an expedition permit: 0.73; 95 % confidence interval 0.59-0.89). The summit bid is generally the most dangerous part of an expedition for members, whereas most high altitude porters die during route preparation. On 8000 m peaks, the mortality during descent from summit varies between 4/1000 and 134/1000 summiteers (members plus porters). The risk estimates are confounded by human and environmental factors. Information on confounding by gender and age is contradictory and requires further work. There are indications for safety segregation of men and women, with women being more risk averse than men. Citizenship appears to be a significant confounder. Prior high altitude mountaineering experience in Nepal has no protective effect. Commercial expeditions in the Nepalese Himalayas have a lower mortality than traditional expeditions, though after controlling for confounding, the difference is not statistically significant. The overall mortality is increasing with increasing peak altitude for expedition members but not for high altitude porters. In the Nepalese Himalayas and in Alaska, a significant decrease of mortality with calendar year was observed. A few suggestions for further work are made at the end of the article.

  19. Quantitative evaluation of the impact of human reliability in risk assessment for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.

    1981-01-01

    The role of human beings in the safe operation of a nuclear power plant has been a matter of concern. This study describes methods for the quantitative description of that role and its impact on the risk from nuclear power plants. The impact of human errors was calculated by observing the changes in risk parameters, such as core melt probability, release category probabilities, accident sequence probabilities and system unavailabilities due to changes in the contribution to unavailablity of human errors, within the framework of risk assessment methodology. It was found that for operational pressurized water reactors the opportunity for reduction in core melt probability by reducing the human error rates without simultaneous reduction of hardware failures is limited, but that core melt probability would significantly increase as human error rates increased. More importantly, most of the dominant accident sequences showed a significant increase in their probabilities with an increase in human error rates. Release categories resulting in high consequences showed a much larger sensitivity to human errors than categories resulting in low consequences. A combination of structural importance and reliability importance measure was used to describe the importance of individual errors

  20. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment in Occupational Settings Applied to the Airborne Human Adenovirus Infection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annalaura Carducci

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA methodology, which has already been applied to drinking water and food safety, may also be applied to risk assessment and management at the workplace. The present study developed a preliminary QMRA model to assess microbial risk that is associated with inhaling bioaerosols that are contaminated with human adenovirus (HAdV. This model has been applied to air contamination data from different occupational settings, including wastewater systems, solid waste landfills, and toilets in healthcare settings and offices, with different exposure times. Virological monitoring showed the presence of HAdVs in all the evaluated settings, thus confirming that HAdV is widespread, but with different average concentrations of the virus. The QMRA results, based on these concentrations, showed that toilets had the highest probability of viral infection, followed by wastewater treatment plants and municipal solid waste landfills. Our QMRA approach in occupational settings is novel, and certain caveats should be considered. Nonetheless, we believe it is worthy of further discussions and investigations.

  1. Skin sensitization quantitative risk assessment for occupational exposure of hairdressers to hair dye ingredients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goebel, Carsten; Diepgen, Thomas L; Blömeke, Brunhilde; Gaspari, Anthony A; Schnuch, Axel; Fuchs, Anne; Schlotmann, Kordula; Krasteva, Maya; Kimber, Ian

    2018-06-01

    Occupational exposure of hairdressers to hair dyes has been associated with the development of allergic contact dermatitis (ACD) involving the hands. p-Phenylenediamine (PPD) and toluene-2,5-diamine (PTD) have been implicated as important occupational contact allergens. To conduct a quantitative risk assessment for the induction of contact sensitization to hair dyes in hairdressers, available data from hand rinsing studies following typical occupational exposure conditions to PPD, PTD and resorcinol were assessed. By accounting for wet work, uneven exposure and inter-individual variability for professionals, daily hand exposure concentrations were derived. Secondly, daily hand exposure was compared with the sensitization induction potency of the individual hair dye defined as the No Expected Sensitization Induction Levels (NESIL). For PPD and PTD hairdresser hand exposure levels were 2.7 and 5.9 fold below the individual NESIL. In contrast, hand exposure to resorcinol was 50 fold below the NESIL. Correspondingly, the risk assessment for PPD and PTD indicates that contact sensitization may occur, when skin protection and skin care are not rigorously applied. We conclude that awareness of health risks associated with occupational exposure to hair dyes, and of the importance of adequate protective measures, should be emphasized more fully during hairdresser education and training. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. An educationally inspired illustration of two-dimensional Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) and sensitivity analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vásquez, G A; Busschaert, P; Haberbeck, L U; Uyttendaele, M; Geeraerd, A H

    2014-11-03

    Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) is a structured methodology used to assess the risk involved by ingestion of a pathogen. It applies mathematical models combined with an accurate exploitation of data sets, represented by distributions and - in the case of two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulations - their hyperparameters. This research aims to highlight background information, assumptions and truncations of a two-dimensional QMRA and advanced sensitivity analysis. We believe that such a detailed listing is not always clearly presented in actual risk assessment studies, while it is essential to ensure reliable and realistic simulations and interpretations. As a case-study, we are considering the occurrence of listeriosis in smoked fish products in Belgium during the period 2008-2009, using two-dimensional Monte Carlo and two sensitivity analysis methods (Spearman correlation and Sobol sensitivity indices) to estimate the most relevant factors of the final risk estimate. A risk estimate of 0.018% per consumption of contaminated smoked fish by an immunocompromised person was obtained. The final estimate of listeriosis cases (23) is within the actual reported result obtained for the same period and for the same population. Variability on the final risk estimate is determined by the variability regarding (i) consumer refrigerator temperatures, (ii) the reference growth rate of L. monocytogenes, (iii) the minimum growth temperature of L. monocytogenes and (iv) consumer portion size. Variability regarding the initial contamination level of L. monocytogenes tends to appear as a determinant of risk variability only when the minimum growth temperature is not included in the sensitivity analysis; when it is included the impact regarding the variability on the initial contamination level of L. monocytogenes is disappearing. Uncertainty determinants of the final risk indicated the need of gathering more information on the reference growth rate and the minimum

  3. Applying quantitative benefit-risk analysis to aid regulatory decision making in diagnostic imaging: methods, challenges, and opportunities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agapova, Maria; Devine, Emily Beth; Bresnahan, Brian W; Higashi, Mitchell K; Garrison, Louis P

    2014-09-01

    Health agencies making regulatory marketing-authorization decisions use qualitative and quantitative approaches to assess expected benefits and expected risks associated with medical interventions. There is, however, no universal standard approach that regulatory agencies consistently use to conduct benefit-risk assessment (BRA) for pharmaceuticals or medical devices, including for imaging technologies. Economics, health services research, and health outcomes research use quantitative approaches to elicit preferences of stakeholders, identify priorities, and model health conditions and health intervention effects. Challenges to BRA in medical devices are outlined, highlighting additional barriers in radiology. Three quantitative methods--multi-criteria decision analysis, health outcomes modeling and stated-choice survey--are assessed using criteria that are important in balancing benefits and risks of medical devices and imaging technologies. To be useful in regulatory BRA, quantitative methods need to: aggregate multiple benefits and risks, incorporate qualitative considerations, account for uncertainty, and make clear whose preferences/priorities are being used. Each quantitative method performs differently across these criteria and little is known about how BRA estimates and conclusions vary by approach. While no specific quantitative method is likely to be the strongest in all of the important areas, quantitative methods may have a place in BRA of medical devices and radiology. Quantitative BRA approaches have been more widely applied in medicines, with fewer BRAs in devices. Despite substantial differences in characteristics of pharmaceuticals and devices, BRA methods may be as applicable to medical devices and imaging technologies as they are to pharmaceuticals. Further research to guide the development and selection of quantitative BRA methods for medical devices and imaging technologies is needed. Copyright © 2014 AUR. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights

  4. Quantitative comparison of genotoxic (mutagenic and carcinogenic) risks and the choice of energy sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Latarjet, R.

    1983-01-01

    For 25 years, pollution for radiation has been governed by restrictive rules enacted and periodically revised by an international commission, and adopted by all countries. Nothing similar exists for mutagenic and carcinogenic chemicals. Since these substances affect the genetic material in the cells with reactions often similar to those caused by radiation, quantitative comparisons are possible, in particular for some of those compounds produced by the combustion of coal, oil and gaz. This paper describes the main results obtained at the Institut Curie, since 1975, with ethylene, ethylene oxide and vinyl chloride monomer. The consequences are discussed for: a) the establishement of control rules for the main genotoxic chemical pollutions; b) the assessment of long term risks in the cases of nuclear energy and of the energies obtained by combustion [fr

  5. A quantitative microbial risk assessment model for Listeria monocytogenes in RTE sandwiches

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tirloni, E.; Stella, S.; de Knegt, Leonardo

    2018-01-01

    within each serving. Then, two dose-response models were alternatively applied: the first used a fixed r value for each of the three population groups, while the second considered a variable r value (lognormal distribution), taking into account the variability in strain virulence and different host...... subpopulations susceptibility. The stochastic model predicted zero cases for total population for both the substrates by using the fixed r approach, while 3 cases were expected when a higher variability (in virulence and susceptibility) was considered in the model; the number of cases increased to 45......A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) was performed to estimate the expected number of listeriosis cases due to the consumption, on the last day of shelf life, of 20 000 servings of multi-ingredient sandwiches produced by a medium scale food producer in Italy, by different population...

  6. Risk, Rationality and Nudging in Late Modern Society: Understanding the dynamics of the climate crisis

    OpenAIRE

    Jakobsen, Terne Sasha Thorn

    2016-01-01

    This study seeks to explore and explain how nudge theory may contribute to the understanding of thedynamics of the climate crisis in a ‘world risk society’. It is based on Ulrich Beck’s theory of a worldrisk society and unfolds through the combination of theories about risk, rationality and behaviour thatare ultimately brought together in relation to the climate crisis. A critical realistic perspective andmethod is taken to explore three hypothetical premises: 1) That the climate crisis is a ...

  7. Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) shows increased public health risk associated with exposure to river water under conditions of riverbed sediment resuspension

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Abia

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available of The Total Environment, 556-557, pp 1143-1151 Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) shows increased public health risk associated with exposure to river water under conditions of riverbed sediment resuspension Akebe Luther King Abia a...

  8. Quantitative background parenchymal uptake on molecular breast imaging and breast cancer risk: a case-control study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hruska, Carrie B; Geske, Jennifer R; Swanson, Tiffinee N; Mammel, Alyssa N; Lake, David S; Manduca, Armando; Conners, Amy Lynn; Whaley, Dana H; Scott, Christopher G; Carter, Rickey E; Rhodes, Deborah J; O'Connor, Michael K; Vachon, Celine M

    2018-06-05

    Background parenchymal uptake (BPU), which refers to the level of Tc-99m sestamibi uptake within normal fibroglandular tissue on molecular breast imaging (MBI), has been identified as a breast cancer risk factor, independent of mammographic density. Prior analyses have used subjective categories to describe BPU. We evaluate a new quantitative method for assessing BPU by testing its reproducibility, comparing quantitative results with previously established subjective BPU categories, and determining the association of quantitative BPU with breast cancer risk. Two nonradiologist operators independently performed region-of-interest analysis on MBI images viewed in conjunction with corresponding digital mammograms. Quantitative BPU was defined as a unitless ratio of the average pixel intensity (counts/pixel) within the fibroglandular tissue versus the average pixel intensity in fat. Operator agreement and the correlation of quantitative BPU measures with subjective BPU categories assessed by expert radiologists were determined. Percent density on mammograms was estimated using Cumulus. The association of quantitative BPU with breast cancer (per one unit BPU) was examined within an established case-control study of 62 incident breast cancer cases and 177 matched controls. Quantitative BPU ranged from 0.4 to 3.2 across all subjects and was on average higher in cases compared to controls (1.4 versus 1.2, p Quantitative BPU was strongly correlated with subjective BPU categories (Spearman's r = 0.59 to 0.69, p quantitative BPU measure, assessed by intraclass correlation, was 0.92 and 0.98, respectively. Quantitative BPU measures showed either no correlation or weak negative correlation with mammographic percent density. In a model adjusted for body mass index and percent density, higher quantitative BPU was associated with increased risk of breast cancer for both operators (OR = 4.0, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.6-10.1, and 2.4, 95% CI 1.2-4.7). Quantitative

  9. Presenting quantitative information about decision outcomes: a risk communication primer for patient decision aid developers

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background Making evidence-based decisions often requires comparison of two or more options. Research-based evidence may exist which quantifies how likely the outcomes are for each option. Understanding these numeric estimates improves patients’ risk perception and leads to better informed decision making. This paper summarises current “best practices” in communication of evidence-based numeric outcomes for developers of patient decision aids (PtDAs) and other health communication tools. Method An expert consensus group of fourteen researchers from North America, Europe, and Australasia identified eleven main issues in risk communication. Two experts for each issue wrote a “state of the art” summary of best evidence, drawing on the PtDA, health, psychological, and broader scientific literature. In addition, commonly used terms were defined and a set of guiding principles and key messages derived from the results. Results The eleven key components of risk communication were: 1) Presenting the chance an event will occur; 2) Presenting changes in numeric outcomes; 3) Outcome estimates for test and screening decisions; 4) Numeric estimates in context and with evaluative labels; 5) Conveying uncertainty; 6) Visual formats; 7) Tailoring estimates; 8) Formats for understanding outcomes over time; 9) Narrative methods for conveying the chance of an event; 10) Important skills for understanding numerical estimates; and 11) Interactive web-based formats. Guiding principles from the evidence summaries advise that risk communication formats should reflect the task required of the user, should always define a relevant reference class (i.e., denominator) over time, should aim to use a consistent format throughout documents, should avoid “1 in x” formats and variable denominators, consider the magnitude of numbers used and the possibility of format bias, and should take into account the numeracy and graph literacy of the audience. Conclusion A substantial and

  10. Development of a Quantitative Framework for Regulatory Risk Assessments: Probabilistic Approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilmot, R.D.

    2003-11-01

    The Swedish regulators have been active in the field of performance assessment for many years and have developed sophisticated approaches to the development of scenarios and other aspects of assessments. These assessments have generally used dose as the assessment end-point and have been based on deterministic calculations. Recently introduced Swedish regulations have introduced a risk criterion for radioactive waste disposal: the annual risk of harmful effects after closure of a disposal facility should not exceed 10 -6 for a representative individual in the group exposed to the greatest risk. A recent review of the overall structure of risk assessments in safety cases concluded that there are a number of decisions and assumptions in the development of a risk assessment methodology that could potentially affect the calculated results. Regulatory understanding of these issues, potentially supported by independent calculations, is important in preparing for review of a proponent's risk assessment. One approach to evaluating risk in performance assessments is to use the concept of probability to express uncertainties, and to propagate these probabilities through the analysis. This report describes the various approaches available for undertaking such probabilistic analyses, both as a means of accounting for uncertainty in the determination of risk and more generally as a means of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. The report discusses the overall nature of probabilistic analyses and how they are applied to both the calculation of risk and sensitivity analyses. Several approaches are available, including differential analysis, response surface methods and simulation. Simulation is the approach most commonly used, both in assessments for radioactive waste disposal and in other subject areas, and the report describes the key stages of this approach in detail. Decisions relating to the development of input PDFs, sampling methods (including approaches to the treatment

  11. Databases applicable to quantitative hazard/risk assessment-Towards a predictive systems toxicology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waters, Michael; Jackson, Marcus

    2008-01-01

    The Workshop on The Power of Aggregated Toxicity Data addressed the requirement for distributed databases to support quantitative hazard and risk assessment. The authors have conceived and constructed with federal support several databases that have been used in hazard identification and risk assessment. The first of these databases, the EPA Gene-Tox Database was developed for the EPA Office of Toxic Substances by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and is currently hosted by the National Library of Medicine. This public resource is based on the collaborative evaluation, by government, academia, and industry, of short-term tests for the detection of mutagens and presumptive carcinogens. The two-phased evaluation process resulted in more than 50 peer-reviewed publications on test system performance and a qualitative database on thousands of chemicals. Subsequently, the graphic and quantitative EPA/IARC Genetic Activity Profile (GAP) Database was developed in collaboration with the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). A chemical database driven by consideration of the lowest effective dose, GAP has served IARC for many years in support of hazard classification of potential human carcinogens. The Toxicological Activity Profile (TAP) prototype database was patterned after GAP and utilized acute, subchronic, and chronic data from the Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards. TAP demonstrated the flexibility of the GAP format for air toxics, water pollutants and other environmental agents. The GAP format was also applied to developmental toxicants and was modified to represent quantitative results from the rodent carcinogen bioassay. More recently, the authors have constructed: 1) the NIEHS Genetic Alterations in Cancer (GAC) Database which quantifies specific mutations found in cancers induced by environmental agents, and 2) the NIEHS Chemical Effects in Biological Systems (CEBS) Knowledgebase that integrates genomic and other biological data including

  12. Improving Student Understanding of Qualitative and Quantitative Analysis via GC/MS Using a Rapid SPME-Based Method for Determination of Trihalomethanes in Drinking Water

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Shu Rong; Palmer, Peter T.

    2017-01-01

    This paper describes a method for determination of trihalomethanes (THMs) in drinking water via solid-phase microextraction (SPME) GC/MS as a means to develop and improve student understanding of the use of GC/MS for qualitative and quantitative analysis. In the classroom, students are introduced to SPME, GC/MS instrumentation, and the use of MS…

  13. Use of different exposure metrics for understanding multi-modal travel injury risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Ilgin Guler

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this work is to identify characteristics of different metrics of exposure for quantifying multi-modal travel injury risk. First, a discussion on the use of time-based and trip-based metrics for road user exposure to injury risk, considering multiple travel modes, is presented. The main difference between a time-based and trip-based metric is argued to be that a time-based metric reflects the actual duration of time spent on the road exposed to the travel risks. This can be proven to be important when considering multiple modes since different modes typically different speeds and average travel distances. Next, the use of total number of trips, total time traveled, and mode share (time-based or trip-based is considered to compare the injury risk of a given mode at different locations. It is argued that using mode share the safety concept which focuses on absolute numbers can be generalized. Quantitative results are also obtained from combining travel survey data with police collision reports for ten counties in California. The data are aggregated for five modes: (i cars, (ii SUVs, (iii transit riders, (iv bicyclists, and (v pedestrians. These aggregated data are used to compare travel risk of different modes with time-based or trip-based exposure metrics. These quantitative results confirm the initial qualitative discussions. As the penetration of mobile probes for transportation data collection increases, the insights of this study can provide guidance on how to best utilize the added value of such data to better quantify travel injury risk, and improve safety.

  14. Understanding safety and production risks in rail engineering planning and protection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, John R; Ryan, Brendan; Schock, Alex; Ferreira, Pedro; Smith, Stuart; Pitsopoulos, Julia

    2009-07-01

    Much of the published human factors work on risk is to do with safety and within this is concerned with prediction and analysis of human error and with human reliability assessment. Less has been published on human factors contributions to understanding and managing project, business, engineering and other forms of risk and still less jointly assessing risk to do with broad issues of 'safety' and broad issues of 'production' or 'performance'. This paper contains a general commentary on human factors and assessment of risk of various kinds, in the context of the aims of ergonomics and concerns about being too risk averse. The paper then describes a specific project, in rail engineering, where the notion of a human factors case has been employed to analyse engineering functions and related human factors issues. A human factors issues register for potential system disturbances has been developed, prior to a human factors risk assessment, which jointly covers safety and production (engineering delivery) concerns. The paper concludes with a commentary on the potential relevance of a resilience engineering perspective to understanding rail engineering systems risk. Design, planning and management of complex systems will increasingly have to address the issue of making trade-offs between safety and production, and ergonomics should be central to this. The paper addresses the relevant issues and does so in an under-published domain - rail systems engineering work.

  15. Toward understanding the active SETI debate: Insights from risk communication and perception

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korbitz, Adam

    2014-12-01

    Insights from the robust field of risk communication and perception have to date been almost totally absent from the policy debate regarding the relative risks and merits of Active SETI or Messaging to Extraterrestrial Intelligence (METI). For many years, the practice (or proposed practice) of Active SETI has generated a vigorous and sometimes heated policy debate within the scientific community. There have also been some negative reactions in the media toward the activities of those engaged in Active SETI. Risk communication is a scientific approach to communication regarding situations involving potentially sensitive or controversial situations in which there may be high public concern and low public trust. The discipline has found wide acceptance and utility in fields such as public health, industrial regulation and environmental protection. Insights from the scientific field of risk communication (such as omission bias, loss aversion, the availability heuristic, probability neglect, and the general human preference for voluntary over involuntary risks) may help those who have participated in either side of the debate over Active SETI to better understand why the debate has taken on this posture. Principles of risk communication and risk perception may also help those engaged in Active SETI to communicate more effectively with other scientists, the public, with the media, and with policy makers regarding their activities and to better understand and respond to concerns expressed regarding the activity.

  16. Exploring Young Children's Understanding of Risks Associated with Internet Usage and Their Concepts of Management Strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ey, Lesley-Anne; Cupit, C. Glenn

    2011-01-01

    The Internet provides remarkable opportunities for children's learning and development. Nevertheless, it is unregulated and hard to control, which potentially places children at risk of exploitation. This study examined five-eight-year-old children's understanding of dangers associated with the Internet, management strategies and sources of their…

  17. What Makes Youth Harass Their Immigrant Peers? Understanding the Risk Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayram Özdemir, Sevgi; Özdemir, Metin; Stattin, Håkan

    2016-01-01

    Immigrant youth are at risk of experiencing harassment in school; however, we have only limited understanding of what makes youth harass their peers on ground of their ethnic origin. To address this major limitation, we examined (a) whether youth's negative attitudes toward immigrants impact their engagement in ethnic harassment over time and (b)…

  18. Quantitative risk-based approach for improving water quality management in mining.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Wenying; Moran, Chris J; Vink, Sue

    2011-09-01

    The potential environmental threats posed by freshwater withdrawal and mine water discharge are some of the main drivers for the mining industry to improve water management. The use of multiple sources of water supply and introducing water reuse into the mine site water system have been part of the operating philosophies employed by the mining industry to realize these improvements. However, a barrier to implementation of such good water management practices is concomitant water quality variation and the resulting impacts on the efficiency of mineral separation processes, and an increased environmental consequence of noncompliant discharge events. There is an increasing appreciation that conservative water management practices, production efficiency, and environmental consequences are intimately linked through the site water system. It is therefore essential to consider water management decisions and their impacts as an integrated system as opposed to dealing with each impact separately. This paper proposes an approach that could assist mine sites to manage water quality issues in a systematic manner at the system level. This approach can quantitatively forecast the risk related with water quality and evaluate the effectiveness of management strategies in mitigating the risk by quantifying implications for production and hence economic viability.

  19. Characterizing trabecular bone structure for assessing vertebral fracture risk on volumetric quantitative computed tomography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagarajan, Mahesh B.; Checefsky, Walter A.; Abidin, Anas Z.; Tsai, Halley; Wang, Xixi; Hobbs, Susan K.; Bauer, Jan S.; Baum, Thomas; Wismüller, Axel

    2015-03-01

    While the proximal femur is preferred for measuring bone mineral density (BMD) in fracture risk estimation, the introduction of volumetric quantitative computed tomography has revealed stronger associations between BMD and spinal fracture status. In this study, we propose to capture properties of trabecular bone structure in spinal vertebrae with advanced second-order statistical features for purposes of fracture risk assessment. For this purpose, axial multi-detector CT (MDCT) images were acquired from 28 spinal vertebrae specimens using a whole-body 256-row CT scanner with a dedicated calibration phantom. A semi-automated method was used to annotate the trabecular compartment in the central vertebral slice with a circular region of interest (ROI) to exclude cortical bone; pixels within were converted to values indicative of BMD. Six second-order statistical features derived from gray-level co-occurrence matrices (GLCM) and the mean BMD within the ROI were then extracted and used in conjunction with a generalized radial basis functions (GRBF) neural network to predict the failure load of the specimens; true failure load was measured through biomechanical testing. Prediction performance was evaluated with a root-mean-square error (RMSE) metric. The best prediction performance was observed with GLCM feature `correlation' (RMSE = 1.02 ± 0.18), which significantly outperformed all other GLCM features (p biomechanical strength prediction in spinal vertebrae can be significantly improved through characterization of trabecular bone structure with GLCM-derived texture features.

  20. Quantitative Risk Analysis of a Pervaporation Process for Concentrating Hydrogen Peroxide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jung, Ho Jin; Yoon, Ik Keun [Korea Gas Corporation, Ansan (Korea, Republic of); Choi, Soo Hyoung [Chonbuk National University, Jeonju (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-12-15

    Quantitative risk analysis has been performed for a pervaporation process for production of high test peroxide. Potential main accidents are explosion and fire caused by a decomposition reaction. As the target process has a laboratory scale, the consequence is considered to belong to Category 3. An event tree has been developed as a model for occurrence of a decomposition reaction in the target process. The probability functions of the accident causes have been established based on the frequency data of similar events. Using the constructed model, the failure rate has been calculated. The result indicates that additional safety devices are required in order to achieve an acceptable risk level, i.e. an accident frequency less than 10{sup -4}/yr. Therefore, a layer of protection analysis has been applied. As a result, it is suggested to introduce inherently safer design to avoid catalytic reaction, a safety instrumented function to prevent overheating, and a relief system that prevents explosion even if a decomposition reaction occurs. The proposed method is expected to contribute to developing safety management systems for various chemical processes including concentration of hydrogen peroxide.

  1. The distinction between risk and hazard: understanding and use in stakeholder communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheer, Dirk; Benighaus, Christina; Benighaus, Ludger; Renn, Ortwin; Gold, Stefan; Röder, Bettina; Böl, Gaby-Fleur

    2014-07-01

    A major issue in all risk communication efforts is the distinction between the terms "risk" and "hazard." The potential to harm a target such as human health or the environment is normally defined as a hazard, whereas risk also encompasses the probability of exposure and the extent of damage. What can be observed again and again in risk communication processes are misunderstandings and communication gaps related to these crucial terms. We asked a sample of 53 experts from public authorities, business and industry, and environmental and consumer organizations in Germany to outline their understanding and use of these terms using both the methods of expert interviews and focus groups. The empirical study made clear that the terms risk and hazard are perceived and used very differently in risk communication depending on the perspective of the stakeholders. Several factors can be identified, such as responsibility for hazard avoidance, economic interest, or a watchdog role. Thus, communication gaps can be reduced to a four-fold problem matrix comprising a semantic, conceptual, strategic, and control problem. The empirical study made clear that risks and hazards are perceived very differently depending on the stakeholders' perspective. Their own worldviews played a major role in their specific use of the two terms hazards and risks in communication. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  2. A quantitative approach to the risk perception associated with nuclear safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Black, S.

    2015-01-01

    Subjective risk perception associated with nuclear safety is hard-wired into the general public psyche; but as real as this 'feels', and as much as it requires to be respected in a democracy, misguided risk perception on nuclear safety can create its own perils for humans. The objective of this paper is to create a better understanding of the phenomena of risk perception associated with nuclear safety presented by journalistic media. It will attempt to quantify the manifestation of risk perception associated with nuclear safety by providing comparison between the media coverage of nuclear and industrial accidents of similar magnitude. It will utilise the Fog Index, a mathematical formula that defines the readability of an article, allowing for an unbiased numerical comparison on 'readability' to be derived. Fog Index is expressed as: Fog Index = 0.4(N/S + 100*L/N), where N is the number of words in the article, S is the number of sentences and L is the number of words with 3 syllables or more. To provide consistency, the medium chosen to compare industrial accidents are reports extracted from 'The Times' newspaper, written at the time of the accidents and concerning Chernobyl and Bhopal disasters. 'The Times' is respected newspaper, written for a knowledgeable audience who have an in-depth interest in the news from the UK and abroad; subsequently this causes it to have a relatively high Fog index, compared to its tabloid counterparts. The higher the Fog Index, the more education the reader requires to fully understand the article, a Fog Index of 12 is the limit for the majority of the general public. Research found that reporting of nuclear safety accidents has a Fog Index of approximately 14 while it was only of 10 for Bhopal accident. These values go someway in demonstrating that the complexity of media information on nuclear safety transferred via journalistic media is beyond what can reasonably be expected to be

  3. A combined usage of stochastic and quantitative risk assessment methods in the worksites: Application on an electric power provider

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marhavilas, P.K.; Koulouriotis, D.E.

    2012-01-01

    An individual method cannot build either a realistic forecasting model or a risk assessment process in the worksites, and future perspectives should focus on the combined forecasting/estimation approach. The main purpose of this paper is to gain insight into a risk prediction and estimation methodological framework, using the combination of three different methods, including the proportional quantitative-risk-assessment technique (PRAT), the time-series stochastic process (TSP), and the method of estimating the societal-risk (SRE) by F–N curves. In order to prove the usefulness of the combined usage of stochastic and quantitative risk assessment methods, an application on an electric power provider industry is presented to, using empirical data.

  4. A simplified method for quantitative assessment of the relative health and safety risk of environmental management activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eide, S.A.; Smith, T.H.; Peatross, R.G.; Stepan, I.E.

    1996-09-01

    This report presents a simplified method to assess the health and safety risk of Environmental Management activities of the US Department of Energy (DOE). The method applies to all types of Environmental Management activities including waste management, environmental restoration, and decontamination and decommissioning. The method is particularly useful for planning or tradeoff studies involving multiple conceptual options because it combines rapid evaluation with a quantitative approach. The method is also potentially applicable to risk assessments of activities other than DOE Environmental Management activities if rapid quantitative results are desired

  5. Laypersons' understanding of relative risk reductions: randomised cross-sectional study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sorensen, Lene; Gyrd-Hansen, Dorte; Kristiansen, Ivar S

    2008-01-01

    of a representative sample (n = 1,519) of lay people with mean age 59 (range 40-98) years in Denmark. In addition to demographic information, respondents were asked to consider a hypothetical drug treatment to prevent heart attack. Its effectiveness was randomly presented as RRR of 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 or 60 percent......, and half of the respondents were presented with quantitative information on the baseline risk of heart attack. The respondents had also been asked whether they were diagnosed with hypercholesterolemia or had experienced a heart attack. RESULTS: In total, 873 (58%) of the respondents consented...

  6. Understanding household preferences for hurricane risk mitigation information: evidence from survey responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatterjee, Chiradip; Mozumder, Pallab

    2014-06-01

    Risk information is critical to adopting mitigation measures, and seeking risk information is influenced by a variety of factors. An essential component of the recently adopted My Safe Florida Home (MSFH) program by the State of Florida is to provide homeowners with pertinent risk information to facilitate hurricane risk mitigation activities. We develop an analytical framework to understand household preferences for hurricane risk mitigation information through allowing an intensive home inspection. An empirical analysis is used to identify major drivers of household preferences to receive personalized information regarding recommended hurricane risk mitigation measures. A variety of empirical specifications show that households with home insurance, prior experience with damages, and with a higher sense of vulnerability to be affected by hurricanes are more likely to allow inspection to seek information. However, households with more members living in the home and households who live in manufactured/mobile homes are less likely to allow inspection. While findings imply MSFH program's ability to link incentives offered by private and public agencies in promoting mitigation, households that face a disproportionately higher level of risk can get priority to make the program more effective. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  7. An Approach for Understanding and Promoting Coal Mine Safety by Exploring Coal Mine Risk Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongliang Deng

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Capturing the interrelations among risks is essential to thoroughly understand and promote coal mining safety. From this standpoint, 105 risks and 135 interrelations among risks had been identified from 126 typical accidents, which were also the foundation of constructing coal mine risk network (CMRN. Based on the complex network theory and Pajek, six parameters (i.e., network diameter, network density, average path length, degree, betweenness, and clustering coefficient were employed to reveal the topological properties of CMRN. As indicated by the results, CMRN possesses scale-free network property because its cumulative degree distribution obeys power-law distribution. This means that CMRN is robust to random hazard and vulnerable to deliberate attack. CMRN is also a small-world network due to its relatively small average path length as well as high clustering coefficient, implying that accident propagation in CMRN is faster than regular network. Furthermore, the effect of risk control is explored. According to the result, it shows that roof collapse, fire, and gas concentration exceeding limit refer to three most valuable targets for risk control among all the risks. This study will help offer recommendations and proposals for making beforehand strategies that can restrain original risks and reduce accidents.

  8. Applying the reasoned action approach to understanding health protection and health risk behaviors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conner, Mark; McEachan, Rosemary; Lawton, Rebecca; Gardner, Peter

    2017-12-01

    The Reasoned Action Approach (RAA) developed out of the Theory of Reasoned Action and Theory of Planned Behavior but has not yet been widely applied to understanding health behaviors. The present research employed the RAA in a prospective design to test predictions of intention and action for groups of protection and risk behaviors separately in the same sample. To test the RAA for health protection and risk behaviors. Measures of RAA components plus past behavior were taken in relation to eight protection and six risk behaviors in 385 adults. Self-reported behavior was assessed one month later. Multi-level modelling showed instrumental attitude, experiential attitude, descriptive norms, capacity and past behavior were significant positive predictors of intentions to engage in protection or risk behaviors. Injunctive norms were only significant predictors of intention in protection behaviors. Autonomy was a significant positive predictor of intentions in protection behaviors and a negative predictor in risk behaviors (the latter relationship became non-significant when controlling for past behavior). Multi-level modelling showed that intention, capacity, and past behavior were significant positive predictors of action for both protection and risk behaviors. Experiential attitude and descriptive norm were additional significant positive predictors of risk behaviors. The RAA has utility in predicting both protection and risk health behaviors although the power of predictors may vary across these types of health behavior. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Integrating expert opinion with modelling for quantitative multi-hazard risk assessment in the Eastern Italian Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lixia; van Westen, Cees J.; Hussin, Haydar; Ciurean, Roxana L.; Turkington, Thea; Chavarro-Rincon, Diana; Shrestha, Dhruba P.

    2016-11-01

    Extreme rainfall events are the main triggering causes for hydro-meteorological hazards in mountainous areas, where development is often constrained by the limited space suitable for construction. In these areas, hazard and risk assessments are fundamental for risk mitigation, especially for preventive planning, risk communication and emergency preparedness. Multi-hazard risk assessment in mountainous areas at local and regional scales remain a major challenge because of lack of data related to past events and causal factors, and the interactions between different types of hazards. The lack of data leads to a high level of uncertainty in the application of quantitative methods for hazard and risk assessment. Therefore, a systematic approach is required to combine these quantitative methods with expert-based assumptions and decisions. In this study, a quantitative multi-hazard risk assessment was carried out in the Fella River valley, prone to debris flows and flood in the north-eastern Italian Alps. The main steps include data collection and development of inventory maps, definition of hazard scenarios, hazard assessment in terms of temporal and spatial probability calculation and intensity modelling, elements-at-risk mapping, estimation of asset values and the number of people, physical vulnerability assessment, the generation of risk curves and annual risk calculation. To compare the risk for each type of hazard, risk curves were generated for debris flows, river floods and flash floods. Uncertainties were expressed as minimum, average and maximum values of temporal and spatial probability, replacement costs of assets, population numbers, and physical vulnerability. These result in minimum, average and maximum risk curves. To validate this approach, a back analysis was conducted using the extreme hydro-meteorological event that occurred in August 2003 in the Fella River valley. The results show a good performance when compared to the historical damage reports.

  10. Quantitative risk analysis using vulnerability indicators to assess food insecurity in the Niayes agricultural region of West Senegal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mateugue Diack

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available There is an increasing need to develop indicators of vulnerability and adaptive capacity to determine the robustness of response strategies over time and better understand the underlying processes. This study aimed to determine levels of risk of food insecurity using defined vulnerability indicators. For the purpose of this study, factors influencing food insecurity and different vulnerable indicators were examined using quantitative and qualitative research methods. Observations made on the physical environment (using tools for spatial analysis and socio-economic surveys conducted with local populations have quantified vulnerability indicators in the Niayes agricultural region. Application of the Classification and Regression Tree (CART model has enabled us to quantify the level of vulnerability of the zone. The results show that the decrease in agricultural surface areas is the most discriminant one in this study. The speed of reduction of the agricultural areas has specially increased between 2009 and 2014, with a loss of 65% of these areas. Therefore, a decision-making system, centred on the need for reinforcing the resilience of local populations, by preserving the agricultural vocation of the Niayes region and even in the Sahelian regions requires support and extension services for the farmers in order to promote sustainable agricultural practices.

  11. A Neuropsychological Approach to Understanding Risk-Taking for Potential Gains and Losses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levin, Irwin P.; Xue, Gui; Weller, Joshua A.; Reimann, Martin; Lauriola, Marco; Bechara, Antoine

    2012-01-01

    Affective neuroscience has helped guide research and theory development in judgment and decision-making by revealing the role of emotional processes in choice behavior, especially when risk is involved. Evidence is emerging that qualitatively and quantitatively different processes may be involved in risky decision-making for gains and losses. We start by reviewing behavioral work by Kahneman and Tversky (1979) and others, which shows that risk-taking differs for potential gains and potential losses. We then turn to the literature in decision neuroscience to support the gain versus loss distinction. Relying in part on data from a new task that separates risky decision-making for gains and losses, we test a neural model that assigns unique mechanisms for risky decision-making involving potential losses. Included are studies using patients with lesions to brain areas specified as important in the model and studies with healthy individuals whose brains are scanned to reveal activation in these and other areas during risky decision-making. In some cases, there is evidence that gains and losses are processed in different regions of the brain, while in other cases the same region appears to process risk in a different manner for gains and losses. At a more general level, we provide strong support for the notion that decisions involving risk-taking for gains and decisions involving risk-taking for losses represent different psychological processes. At a deeper level, we present mounting evidence that different neural structures play different roles in guiding risky choices in these different domains. Some structures are differentially activated by risky gains and risky losses while others respond uniquely in one domain or the other. Taken together, these studies support a clear functional dissociation between risk-taking for gains and risk-taking for losses, and further dissociation at the neural level. PMID:22347161

  12. Experts’ understandings of drinking water risk management in a climate change scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Åsa Boholm

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The challenges for society presented by climate change are complex and demanding. This paper focuses on one particular resource of utmost necessity and vulnerability to climate change: namely, the provisioning of safe drinking water. From a critical perspective on the role of expertise in risk debates, this paper looks at how Swedish experts understand risk to drinking water in a climate change scenario and how they reason about challenges to risk management and adaptation strategies. The empirical material derives from ten in-depth semi-structured interviews with experts, employed both at government agencies and at universities, and with disciplinary backgrounds in a variety of fields (water engineering, planning, geology and environmental chemistry. The experts understand risk factors affecting both drinking water quality and availability as complex and systemically interrelated. A lack of political saliency of drinking water as a public service is identified as an obstacle to the development of robust adaptation strategies. Another area of concern relates to the geographical, organizational and institutional boundaries (regulatory, political and epistemological between the plethora of public actors with partly overlapping and sometimes unclear responsibilities for the provisioning of safe drinking water. The study concludes that climate change adaptation regarding drinking water provisioning will require a new integration of the knowledge of systemic risk relations, in combination with more efficient agency collaboration based on a clear demarcation of responsibility between actors.

  13. Utilizing toxicogenomic data to understand chemical mechanism of action in risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilson, Vickie S., E-mail: wilson.vickie@epa.gov [National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711 (United States); Keshava, Nagalakshmi [National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20460 (United States); Hester, Susan [National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711 (United States); Segal, Deborah; Chiu, Weihsueh [National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20460 (United States); Thompson, Chad M. [ToxStrategies, Inc., 23501 Cinco Ranch Blvd., Suite G265, Katy, TX 77494 (United States); Euling, Susan Y. [National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20460 (United States)

    2013-09-15

    The predominant role of toxicogenomic data in risk assessment, thus far, has been one of augmentation of more traditional in vitro and in vivo toxicology data. This article focuses on the current available examples of instances where toxicogenomic data has been evaluated in human health risk assessment (e.g., acetochlor and arsenicals) which have been limited to the application of toxicogenomic data to inform mechanism of action. This article reviews the regulatory policy backdrop and highlights important efforts to ultimately achieve regulatory acceptance. A number of research efforts on specific chemicals that were designed for risk assessment purposes have employed mechanism or mode of action hypothesis testing and generating strategies. The strides made by large scale efforts to utilize toxicogenomic data in screening, testing, and risk assessment are also discussed. These efforts include both the refinement of methodologies for performing toxicogenomics studies and analysis of the resultant data sets. The current issues limiting the application of toxicogenomics to define mode or mechanism of action in risk assessment are discussed together with interrelated research needs. In summary, as chemical risk assessment moves away from a single mechanism of action approach toward a toxicity pathway-based paradigm, we envision that toxicogenomic data from multiple technologies (e.g., proteomics, metabolomics, transcriptomics, supportive RT-PCR studies) can be used in conjunction with one another to understand the complexities of multiple, and possibly interacting, pathways affected by chemicals which will impact human health risk assessment.

  14. Utilizing toxicogenomic data to understand chemical mechanism of action in risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, Vickie S.; Keshava, Nagalakshmi; Hester, Susan; Segal, Deborah; Chiu, Weihsueh; Thompson, Chad M.; Euling, Susan Y.

    2013-01-01

    The predominant role of toxicogenomic data in risk assessment, thus far, has been one of augmentation of more traditional in vitro and in vivo toxicology data. This article focuses on the current available examples of instances where toxicogenomic data has been evaluated in human health risk assessment (e.g., acetochlor and arsenicals) which have been limited to the application of toxicogenomic data to inform mechanism of action. This article reviews the regulatory policy backdrop and highlights important efforts to ultimately achieve regulatory acceptance. A number of research efforts on specific chemicals that were designed for risk assessment purposes have employed mechanism or mode of action hypothesis testing and generating strategies. The strides made by large scale efforts to utilize toxicogenomic data in screening, testing, and risk assessment are also discussed. These efforts include both the refinement of methodologies for performing toxicogenomics studies and analysis of the resultant data sets. The current issues limiting the application of toxicogenomics to define mode or mechanism of action in risk assessment are discussed together with interrelated research needs. In summary, as chemical risk assessment moves away from a single mechanism of action approach toward a toxicity pathway-based paradigm, we envision that toxicogenomic data from multiple technologies (e.g., proteomics, metabolomics, transcriptomics, supportive RT-PCR studies) can be used in conjunction with one another to understand the complexities of multiple, and possibly interacting, pathways affected by chemicals which will impact human health risk assessment

  15. Quantitative falls risk estimation through multi-sensor assessment of standing balance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greene, Barry R; McGrath, Denise; Walsh, Lorcan; Doheny, Emer P; McKeown, David; Garattini, Chiara; Cunningham, Clodagh; Crosby, Lisa; Caulfield, Brian; Kenny, Rose A

    2012-12-01

    Falls are the most common cause of injury and hospitalization and one of the principal causes of death and disability in older adults worldwide. Measures of postural stability have been associated with the incidence of falls in older adults. The aim of this study was to develop a model that accurately classifies fallers and non-fallers using novel multi-sensor quantitative balance metrics that can be easily deployed into a home or clinic setting. We compared the classification accuracy of our model with an established method for falls risk assessment, the Berg balance scale. Data were acquired using two sensor modalities--a pressure sensitive platform sensor and a body-worn inertial sensor, mounted on the lower back--from 120 community dwelling older adults (65 with a history of falls, 55 without, mean age 73.7 ± 5.8 years, 63 female) while performing a number of standing balance tasks in a geriatric research clinic. Results obtained using a support vector machine yielded a mean classification accuracy of 71.52% (95% CI: 68.82-74.28) in classifying falls history, obtained using one model classifying all data points. Considering male and female participant data separately yielded classification accuracies of 72.80% (95% CI: 68.85-77.17) and 73.33% (95% CI: 69.88-76.81) respectively, leading to a mean classification accuracy of 73.07% in identifying participants with a history of falls. Results compare favourably to those obtained using the Berg balance scale (mean classification accuracy: 59.42% (95% CI: 56.96-61.88)). Results from the present study could lead to a robust method for assessing falls risk in both supervised and unsupervised environments.

  16. Quantitative falls risk estimation through multi-sensor assessment of standing balance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greene, Barry R; McGrath, Denise; Walsh, Lorcan; Doheny, Emer P; McKeown, David; Garattini, Chiara; Cunningham, Clodagh; Crosby, Lisa; Caulfield, Brian; Kenny, Rose A

    2012-01-01

    Falls are the most common cause of injury and hospitalization and one of the principal causes of death and disability in older adults worldwide. Measures of postural stability have been associated with the incidence of falls in older adults. The aim of this study was to develop a model that accurately classifies fallers and non-fallers using novel multi-sensor quantitative balance metrics that can be easily deployed into a home or clinic setting. We compared the classification accuracy of our model with an established method for falls risk assessment, the Berg balance scale. Data were acquired using two sensor modalities—a pressure sensitive platform sensor and a body-worn inertial sensor, mounted on the lower back—from 120 community dwelling older adults (65 with a history of falls, 55 without, mean age 73.7 ± 5.8 years, 63 female) while performing a number of standing balance tasks in a geriatric research clinic. Results obtained using a support vector machine yielded a mean classification accuracy of 71.52% (95% CI: 68.82–74.28) in classifying falls history, obtained using one model classifying all data points. Considering male and female participant data separately yielded classification accuracies of 72.80% (95% CI: 68.85–77.17) and 73.33% (95% CI: 69.88–76.81) respectively, leading to a mean classification accuracy of 73.07% in identifying participants with a history of falls. Results compare favourably to those obtained using the Berg balance scale (mean classification accuracy: 59.42% (95% CI: 56.96–61.88)). Results from the present study could lead to a robust method for assessing falls risk in both supervised and unsupervised environments. (paper)

  17. Current understanding of microplastics in the environment: Occurrence, fate, risks, and what we should do.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Jinping; Wang, Jundong; Cai, Liqi

    2017-05-01

    Microplastics pollution has been documented in the global environment, including at sea, in freshwater and in atmospheric fallout. Ingestion of microplastics by multiple kinds of organisms has been reported and has received increasing attention, because microplastics not only act as a source of toxic chemicals but also a sink for toxic chemicals. To better understand the great concerns about microplastics and associated toxic chemicals potential exposed to the organisms ingesting the debris, we should know more about the occurrence, fate, and risks of microplastics in the environment. What we should do depends on this better understanding. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:476-482. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

  18. Understanding rural poverty and investment in agriculture: an assessment of integreated quantitative and qualitative research in Western Kenya

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Place, F.; Adato, M.; Hebinck, P.G.M.

    2005-01-01

    This article addresses the methodological complexities inherent in researching poverty, examining how to differentiate the poor from other social groups, and how to assess the relationships between poverty and technology adoption and impact. The use of specific types of quantitative and qualitative

  19. Understanding rural poverty and investment in agriculture: an assessment of integrated quantitative and qualitative research in Western Kenya

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Place, F.; Adato, M.; Hebinck, P.G.M.

    2007-01-01

    This article addresses the methodological complexities inherent in researching poverty, examining how to differentiate the poor from other social groups, and how to assess the relationships between poverty and technology adoption and impact. The use of specific types of quantitative and qualitative

  20. Understanding Variation in Treatment Effects in Education Impact Evaluations: An Overview of Quantitative Methods. NCEE 2014-4017

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schochet, Peter Z.; Puma, Mike; Deke, John

    2014-01-01

    This report summarizes the complex research literature on quantitative methods for assessing how impacts of educational interventions on instructional practices and student learning differ across students, educators, and schools. It also provides technical guidance about the use and interpretation of these methods. The research topics addressed…

  1. Understanding socioeconomic aspects of risk perception: Progress report, FY-1987: Working draft

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liebow, E.B.; Fawcett-Long, J.A.; Terrill, E.S.

    1987-11-01

    This report summarizes progress to date in understanding the issue of risk perception and its implications for the suitability of the Hanford Site in eastern Washington as a location for an underground radioactive waste repository. It presents some observations about the causes, consequences and processes of risk perception gained from a review of the professional literature. It also contains an extensive working bibliography of useful reference materials, and a compilation of abstracts from selected articles that are felt to be of particular relevance to the BWIP licensing and institutional support efforts. 293 refs

  2. Quantitative Structure activity relationship and risk analysis of some pesticides in the cattle milk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Faqir Muhammad*, Ijaz Javed, Masood Akhtar1, Zia-ur-Rahman, Mian Muhammad Awais1, Muhammad Kashif Saleemi2 and Muhammad Irfan Anwar3

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Milk of cattle was collected from various localities of Faisalabad, Pakistan. Pesticides concentration was determined by HPLC using solid phase microextraction. The residue analysis revealed that about 40% milk samples were contaminated with pesticides. The mean±SE levels (ppm of cyhalothrin, endosulfan, chlorpyrifos and cypermethrin were 0.38±0.02, 0.26±0.02, 0.072±0.01 and 0.085±0.02, respectively. Quantitative structure activity relationship (QSAR models were used to predict the residues of unknown pesticides in the milk of cattle using their known physicochemical properties such as molecular weight (MW, melting point (MP, and log octanol to water partition coefficient (Ko/w as well as the milk characteristics such as pH, % fat, and specific gravity (SG in this species. The analysis revealed good correlation coefficients (R2 = 0.91 for cattle QSAR model. The coefficient for Ko/w for the studied pesticides was higher in cattle milk. Risk analysis was conducted based upon the determined pesticide residues and their provisional tolerable daily intakes. The daily intake levels of pesticide residues including cyhalothrin, chlorpyrifos and cypermethrin in present study were 3, 11, 2.5 times higher, respectively in cattle milk. This intake of pesticide contaminated milk might pose health hazards to humans in this locality.

  3. Assessing vertebral fracture risk on volumetric quantitative computed tomography by geometric characterization of trabecular bone structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Checefsky, Walter A.; Abidin, Anas Z.; Nagarajan, Mahesh B.; Bauer, Jan S.; Baum, Thomas; Wismüller, Axel

    2016-03-01

    The current clinical standard for measuring Bone Mineral Density (BMD) is dual X-ray absorptiometry, however more recently BMD derived from volumetric quantitative computed tomography has been shown to demonstrate a high association with spinal fracture susceptibility. In this study, we propose a method of fracture risk assessment using structural properties of trabecular bone in spinal vertebrae. Experimental data was acquired via axial multi-detector CT (MDCT) from 12 spinal vertebrae specimens using a whole-body 256-row CT scanner with a dedicated calibration phantom. Common image processing methods were used to annotate the trabecular compartment in the vertebral slices creating a circular region of interest (ROI) that excluded cortical bone for each slice. The pixels inside the ROI were converted to values indicative of BMD. High dimensional geometrical features were derived using the scaling index method (SIM) at different radii and scaling factors (SF). The mean BMD values within the ROI were then extracted and used in conjunction with a support vector machine to predict the failure load of the specimens. Prediction performance was measured using the root-mean-square error (RMSE) metric and determined that SIM combined with mean BMD features (RMSE = 0.82 +/- 0.37) outperformed MDCT-measured mean BMD (RMSE = 1.11 +/- 0.33) (p biomechanical strength prediction in vertebrae can be significantly improved through the use of SIM-derived texture features from trabecular bone.

  4. Combination of qualitative and quantitative sources of knowledge for risk assessment in the framework of possibility theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oussalah, M.; Newby, M.J.

    2004-01-01

    This paper focuses on a representation of system reliability in the framework of possibility theory. Particularly, given a (probabilistic) quantitative knowledge pertaining to the time to failure of a system (risk function) and some qualitative knowledge about the degree of pessimism and optimism of

  5. 78 FR 9701 - Draft Joint Food and Drug Administration/Health Canada Quantitative Assessment of the Risk of...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-02-11

    ... on the sources of L. monocytogenes contamination, the effects of individual manufacturing and/or... DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES Food and Drug Administration [Docket No. FDA-2012-N-1182] Draft Joint Food and Drug Administration/Health Canada Quantitative Assessment of the Risk of...

  6. EFSA Panel on Biological Hazards; Scientific Opinion on a Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment of Salmonella in slaughter and breeder pigs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hald, Tine

    This Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) represents a major step forward in terms of modelling Salmonella in pigs from farm to consumption as it takes into account the variability between and within EU Member States (MSs). Around 10-20% of human Salmonella infections in EU may...

  7. Physically based dynamic run-out modelling for quantitative debris flow risk assessment: a case study in Tresenda, northern Italy

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Quan Luna, B.; Blahůt, Jan; Camera, C.; Van Westen, C.; Apuani, T.; Jetten, V.; Sterlacchini, S.

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 72, č. 3 (2014), s. 645-661 ISSN 1866-6280 Institutional support: RVO:67985891 Keywords : debris flow * FLO-2D * run-out * quantitative hazard and risk assessment * vulnerability * numerical modelling Subject RIV: DB - Geology ; Mineralogy Impact factor: 1.765, year: 2014

  8. Potential application of quantitative microbiological risk assessment techniques to an aseptic-UHT process in the food industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pujol, Laure; Albert, Isabelle; Johnson, Nicholas Brian; Membré, Jeanne-Marie

    2013-04-01

    Aseptic ultra-high-temperature (UHT)-type processed food products (e.g., milk or soup) are ready to eat products which are consumed extensively globally due to a combination of their comparative high quality and long shelf life, with no cold chain or other preservation requirements. Due to the inherent microbial vulnerability of aseptic-UHT product formulations, the safety and stability-related performance objectives (POs) required at the end of the manufacturing process are the most demanding found in the food industry. The key determinants to achieving sterility, and which also differentiates aseptic-UHT from in-pack sterilised products, are the challenges associated with the processes of aseptic filling and sealing. This is a complex process that has traditionally been run using deterministic or empirical process settings. Quantifying the risk of microbial contamination and recontamination along the aseptic-UHT process, using the scientifically based process quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA), offers the possibility to improve on the currently tolerable sterility failure rate (i.e., 1 defect per 10,000 units). In addition, benefits of applying QMRA are (i) to implement process settings in a transparent and scientific manner; (ii) to develop a uniform common structure whatever the production line, leading to a harmonisation of these process settings, and; (iii) to bring elements of a cost-benefit analysis of the management measures. The objective of this article is to explore how QMRA techniques and risk management metrics may be applied to aseptic-UHT-type processed food products. In particular, the aseptic-UHT process should benefit from a number of novel mathematical and statistical concepts that have been developed in the field of QMRA. Probabilistic techniques such as Monte Carlo simulation, Bayesian inference and sensitivity analysis, should help in assessing the compliance with safety and stability-related POs set at the end of the manufacturing

  9. Counselees’ expressed level of understanding of the risk estimate and surveillance recommendation are not associated with breast cancer surveillance adherence.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Albada, A.; Dulmen, S. van; Dijkstra, H.; Wieffer, I.; Witkamp, A.; Ausems, M.G.E.M.

    2016-01-01

    We studied counselees’ expressed understanding of the risk estimate and surveillance recommendation in the final consultation for breast cancer genetic counseling in relation with their risk perception, worry and cancer surveillance adherence 1 year post-counseling. Consecutive counselees were

  10. Revisiting the ‘disaster and development’ debate – Toward a broader understanding of macroeconomic risk and resilience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junko Mochizuki

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Debate regarding the relationship between socioeconomic development and natural disasters remains at the fore of global discussions, as the potential risk from climate extremes and uncertainty pose an increasing threat to developmental prospects. This study reviews statistical investigations of disaster and development linkages, across topics of macroeconomic growth, public governance and others to identify key challenges to the current approach to macro-level statistical investigation. Both theoretically and qualitatively, disaster is known to affect development through a number of channels: haphazard development, weak institutions, lack of social safety nets and short-termism of our decision-making practices are some of the factors that drive natural disaster risk. Developmental potentials, including the prospects for sustainable and equitable growth, are in turn threatened by such accumulation of disaster risks. However, quantitative evidence regarding these complex causality chains remains contested due to several reasons. A number of theoretical and methodological limitations have been identified, including the use of GDP as a proxy measurement of welfare, issues with natural disaster damage reporting and the adoption of ad hoc model specifications and variables, which render interpretation and cross-comparison of statistical analysis difficult. Additionally, while greater attention is paid to economic and institutional parameters such as GDP, remittance, corruption and public expenditure as opposed to hard-to-quantify yet critical factors such as environmental conditions and social vulnerabilities. These are gaps in our approach that hamper our comprehensive understanding of the disaster-development nexus. Important areas for further research are identified, including recognizing and addressing the data constraints, incorporating sustainability and equity concerns through alternatives to GDP, and finding novel approaches to examining the

  11. Comparison of recreational health risks associated with surfing and swimming in dry weather and post-storm conditions at Southern California beaches using quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tseng, Linda Y; Jiang, Sunny C

    2012-05-01

    Southern California is an increasingly urbanized hotspot for surfing, thus it is of great interest to assess the human illness risks associated with this popular ocean recreational water sport from exposure to fecal bacteria contaminated coastal waters. Quantitative microbial risk assessments were applied to eight popular Southern California beaches using readily available enterococcus and fecal coliform data and dose-response models to compare health risks associated with surfing during dry weather and storm conditions. The results showed that the level of gastrointestinal illness risks from surfing post-storm events was elevated, with the probability of exceeding the US EPA health risk guideline up to 28% of the time. The surfing risk was also elevated in comparison with swimming at the same beach due to ingestion of greater volume of water. The study suggests that refinement of dose-response model, improving monitoring practice and better surfer behavior surveillance will improve the risk estimation. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Understanding Falls Risk and Impacts in Chinese American Older Patients at a Community Health Center.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Susan; Duong, Thomas; Ieong, Liss; Quach, Thu

    2017-08-01

    While falls are highly prevalent and costly for older adults, little is known about falls for Asian Americans. Using a custom, evidence-based, bilingual fall risk assessment and management tool, our study examined the prevalence of falls among older Chinese-speaking patients at a community health center. We identified the risks for falls and explored an association of fall risk with emergency room (ER) and hospital use in this population. The setting was at a community health center in Oakland, CA. Participants included 839 older Asian American adults (ages 65-80 years) who spoke Cantonese/Mandarin. Primary care clinic staff administered a fall risk assessment and management tool at the time of clinic visits to assess patients' risk factors for falls. Of the total, 173 (20.6%) reported having fallen in the past year, with women comprising a majority (71.7%). 362 patients in the cohort (43.1%) reported fear of falling. For the subset of Medicaid managed care patients (n = 455, 54.3% of total) for whom we were able to obtain ER and hospital utilization data, 31 patients (14.5%) who reported a fall risk had an ER/hospital episode compared to 15 (6.2%) of those who did not self-report fall risks (statistically significant, p cultural competence to focus on Asian American older adults, can help establish the prevalence of falls in this understudied population and effectively identify those at higher risk for falls and subsequent ER/hospital utilization. More research is needed to understand the risk and impacts of falls in understudied populations and identify ways to prevent these costly falls.

  13. Mammographic features and subsequent risk of breast cancer: a comparison of qualitative and quantitative evaluations in the Guernsey prospective studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torres-Mejía, Gabriela; De Stavola, Bianca; Allen, Diane S; Pérez-Gavilán, Juan J; Ferreira, Jorge M; Fentiman, Ian S; Dos Santos Silva, Isabel

    2005-05-01

    Mammographic features are known to be associated with breast cancer but the magnitude of the effect differs markedly from study to study. Methods to assess mammographic features range from subjective qualitative classifications to computer-automated quantitative measures. We used data from the UK Guernsey prospective studies to examine the relative value of these methods in predicting breast cancer risk. In all, 3,211 women ages > or =35 years who had a mammogram taken in 1986 to 1989 were followed-up to the end of October 2003, with 111 developing breast cancer during this period. Mammograms were classified using the subjective qualitative Wolfe classification and several quantitative mammographic features measured using computer-based techniques. Breast cancer risk was positively associated with high-grade Wolfe classification, percent breast density and area of dense tissue, and negatively associated with area of lucent tissue, fractal dimension, and lacunarity. Inclusion of the quantitative measures in the same model identified area of dense tissue and lacunarity as the best predictors of breast cancer, with risk increasing by 59% [95% confidence interval (95% CI), 29-94%] per SD increase in total area of dense tissue but declining by 39% (95% CI, 53-22%) per SD increase in lacunarity, after adjusting for each other and for other confounders. Comparison of models that included both the qualitative Wolfe classification and these two quantitative measures to models that included either the qualitative or the two quantitative variables showed that they all made significant contributions to prediction of breast cancer risk. These findings indicate that breast cancer risk is affected not only by the amount of mammographic density but also by the degree of heterogeneity of the parenchymal pattern and, presumably, by other features captured by the Wolfe classification.

  14. Quantitative and qualitative approaches in educational research — problems and examples of controlled understanding through interpretive methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neumann, Karl

    1987-06-01

    In the methodological discussion of recent years it has become apparent that many research problems, including problems relating to the theory of educational science, cannot be solved by using quantitative methods. The multifaceted aspects of human behaviour and all its environment-bound subtle nuances, especially the process of education or the development of identity, cannot fully be taken into account within a rigid neopositivist approach. In employing the paradigm of symbolic interactionism as a suitable model for the analysis of processes of education and formation, the research has generally to start out from complex reciprocal social interactions instead of unambigious connections of causes. In analysing several particular methodological problems, the article demonstrates some weaknesses of quantitative approaches and then shows the advantages in and the necessity for using qualitative research tools.

  15. Understanding radiation and risk: the importance of primary and secondary education

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tada, Junichiro

    1999-01-01

    In Japan's primary and secondary schools, radiation and radioactivity are taught as part of the curriculum dealing with social science subjects. Students learn much about the hazardous features of radiation, but lack the scientific understanding necessary to build a more balanced picture. Although the same point applies to education covering the harmful effects of volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, electrical storms and so on, public understanding of these events is relatively high and students are generally able to make informed judgments about the risks involved. By contrast, their limited understanding of radiation often contributes to fears that it is evil or even supernatural. To correct this distortion, it is important that primary and secondary education includes a scientific explanation of radiation. Like heat and light, radiation is fundamental to the history of the universe; and scientific education programs should give appropriate emphasis to this important subject. Students would then be able to make more objective judgments about the useful and hazardous aspects of radiation. (author)

  16. A neurogenetics approach to understanding individual differences in brain, behavior, and risk for psychopathology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogdan, R; Hyde, L W; Hariri, A R

    2013-03-01

    Neurogenetics research has begun to advance our understanding of how genetic variation gives rise to individual differences in brain function, which, in turn, shapes behavior and risk for psychopathology. Despite these advancements, neurogenetics research is currently confronted by three major challenges: (1) conducting research on individual variables with small effects, (2) absence of detailed mechanisms, and (3) a need to translate findings toward greater clinical relevance. In this review, we showcase techniques and developments that address these challenges and highlight the benefits of a neurogenetics approach to understanding brain, behavior and psychopathology. To address the challenge of small effects, we explore approaches including incorporating the environment, modeling epistatic relationships and using multilocus profiles. To address the challenge of mechanism, we explore how non-human animal research, epigenetics research and genome-wide association studies can inform our mechanistic understanding of behaviorally relevant brain function. Finally, to address the challenge of clinical relevance, we examine how neurogenetics research can identify novel therapeutic targets and for whom treatments work best. By addressing these challenges, neurogenetics research is poised to exponentially increase our understanding of how genetic variation interacts with the environment to shape the brain, behavior and risk for psychopathology.

  17. Quantitative microbiological risk assessment as a tool to obtain useful information for risk managers - specific application to Listeria monocytogenes and ready-to-eat meat products

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mataragas, M.; Zwietering, M.H.; Skandamis, P.N.; Drosinos, E.H.

    2010-01-01

    The presence of Listeria monocytogenes in a sliced cooked, cured ham-like meat product was quantitatively assessed. Sliced cooked, cured meat products are considered as high risk products. These ready-to-eat, RTE, products (no special preparation, e.g. thermal treatment, before eating is required),

  18. Where Lies the Risk? An Ecological Approach to Understanding Child Mental Health Risk and Vulnerabilities in Sub-Saharan Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olayinka Atilola

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Efforts at improving child-health and development initiatives in sub-Saharan Africa had focused on the physical health of children due to the neglect of child and adolescent mental health (CAMH policy initiatives. A thorough and broad-based understanding of the prevalent child mental-health risk and vulnerability factors is needed to successfully articulate CAMH policies. In this discourse, we present a narrative on the child mental-health risk and vulnerability factors in sub-Saharan Africa. Through an ecological point of view, we identified widespread family poverty, poor availability and uptake of childcare resources, inadequate community and institutional childcare systems, and inadequate framework for social protection for vulnerable children as among the risk and vulnerability factors for CAMH in the region. Others are poor workplace policy/practice that does not support work-family life balance, poor legislative framework for child protection, and some harmful traditional practices. We conclude that an ecological approach shows that child mental-health risks are diverse and cut across different layers of the care environment. The approach also provides a broad and holistic template from which appropriate CAMH policy direction in sub-Saharan Africa can be understood.

  19. Where lies the risk? An ecological approach to understanding child mental health risk and vulnerabilities in sub-saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atilola, Olayinka

    2014-01-01

    Efforts at improving child-health and development initiatives in sub-Saharan Africa had focused on the physical health of children due to the neglect of child and adolescent mental health (CAMH) policy initiatives. A thorough and broad-based understanding of the prevalent child mental-health risk and vulnerability factors is needed to successfully articulate CAMH policies. In this discourse, we present a narrative on the child mental-health risk and vulnerability factors in sub-Saharan Africa. Through an ecological point of view, we identified widespread family poverty, poor availability and uptake of childcare resources, inadequate community and institutional childcare systems, and inadequate framework for social protection for vulnerable children as among the risk and vulnerability factors for CAMH in the region. Others are poor workplace policy/practice that does not support work-family life balance, poor legislative framework for child protection, and some harmful traditional practices. We conclude that an ecological approach shows that child mental-health risks are diverse and cut across different layers of the care environment. The approach also provides a broad and holistic template from which appropriate CAMH policy direction in sub-Saharan Africa can be understood.

  20. Where Lies the Risk? An Ecological Approach to Understanding Child Mental Health Risk and Vulnerabilities in Sub-Saharan Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atilola, Olayinka

    2014-01-01

    Efforts at improving child-health and development initiatives in sub-Saharan Africa had focused on the physical health of children due to the neglect of child and adolescent mental health (CAMH) policy initiatives. A thorough and broad-based understanding of the prevalent child mental-health risk and vulnerability factors is needed to successfully articulate CAMH policies. In this discourse, we present a narrative on the child mental-health risk and vulnerability factors in sub-Saharan Africa. Through an ecological point of view, we identified widespread family poverty, poor availability and uptake of childcare resources, inadequate community and institutional childcare systems, and inadequate framework for social protection for vulnerable children as among the risk and vulnerability factors for CAMH in the region. Others are poor workplace policy/practice that does not support work-family life balance, poor legislative framework for child protection, and some harmful traditional practices. We conclude that an ecological approach shows that child mental-health risks are diverse and cut across different layers of the care environment. The approach also provides a broad and holistic template from which appropriate CAMH policy direction in sub-Saharan Africa can be understood. PMID:24834431

  1. Understanding human - bat interactions in NSW, Australia: improving risk communication for prevention of Australian bat lyssavirus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quinn, Emma K; Massey, Peter D; Cox-Witton, Keren; Paterson, Beverley J; Eastwood, Keith; Durrheim, David N

    2014-07-02

    Australian bat lyssavirus (ABLV) infects a number of flying fox and insectivorous bats species in Australia. Human infection with ABLV is inevitably fatal unless prior vaccination and/or post-exposure treatment (PET) is given. Despite ongoing public health messaging about the risks associated with bat contact, surveillance data have revealed a four-fold increase in the number of people receiving PET for bat exposure in NSW between 2007 and 2011. Our study aimed to better understand these human - bat interactions in order to identify additional risk communication messages that could lower the risk of potential ABLV exposure. All people aged 18 years or over whom received PET for non-occupation related potential ABLV exposure in the Hunter New England Local Health District of Australia between July 2011 and July 2013 were considered eligible for the study. Eligible participants were invited to a telephone interview to explore the circumstances of their bat contact. Interviews were then transcribed and thematically analysed by two independent investigators. Of 21 eligible participants that were able to be contacted, 16 consented and participated in a telephone interview. Participants reported bats as being widespread in their environment but reported a general lack of awareness about ABLV, particularly the risk of disease from bat scratches. Participants who attempted to 'rescue' bats did so because of a deep concern for the bat's welfare. Participants reported a change in risk perception after the exposure event and provided suggestions for public health messages that could be used to raise awareness about ABLV. Reframing the current risk messages to account for the genuine concern of people for bat welfare may enhance the communication. The potential risk to the person and possible harm to the bat from an attempted 'rescue' should be promoted, along with contact details for animal rescue groups. The potential risk of ABLV from bat scratches merits greater emphasis.

  2. Quantitative structure activity relationship and risk analysis of some pesticides in the goat milk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muhammad, Faqir; Awais, Mian Muhammad; Akhtar, Masood; Anwar, Muhammad Irfan

    2013-01-04

    The detection and quantification of different pesticides in the goat milk samples collected from different localities of Faisalabad, Pakistan was performed by HPLC using solid phase microextraction. The analysis showed that about 50% milk samples were contaminated with pesticides. The mean±SEM levels (ppm) of cyhalothrin, endosulfan, chlorpyrifos and cypermethrin were 0.34±0.007, 0.063±0.002, 0.034±0.002 and 0.092±0.002, respectively; whereas, methyl parathion was not detected in any of the analyzed samples. Quantitative structure activity relationship (QSAR) models were suggested to predict the residues of unknown pesticides in the goat milk using their known physicochemical characteristics including molecular weight (MW), melting point (MP), and log octanol to water partition coefficient (Ko/w) in relation to the characteristics such as pH, % fat, specific gravity and refractive index of goat milk. The analysis revealed good correlation coefficient (R2 = 0.985) for goat QSAR model. The coefficients for Ko/w and refractive index for the studied pesticides were higher in goat milk. This suggests that these are better determinants for pesticide residue prediction in the milk of these animals. Based upon the determined pesticide residues and their provisional tolerable daily intakes, risk analysis was also conducted which showed that daily intake levels of pesticide residues including cyhalothrin, chlorpyrifos and cypermethrin in present study are 2.68, 5.19 and 2.71 times higher, respectively in the goat milk. This intake of pesticide contaminated milk might pose health hazards to humans in this locality.

  3. Quantitative Structure Activity Relationship and Risk Analysis of Some Pesticides in the Goat milk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Faqir Muhammad

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The detection and quantification of different pesticides in the goat milk samples collected from different localities of Faisalabad, Pakistan was performed by HPLC using solid phase microextraction. The analysis showed that about 50% milk samples were contaminated with pesticides. The mean+/-SEM levels (ppm of cyhalothrin, endosulfan, chlorpyrifos and cypermethrin were 0.34+/-0.007, 0.063+/-0.002, 0.034+/-0.002 and 0.092+/-0.002, respectively; whereas, methyl parathion was not detected in any of the analyzed samples. Quantitative structure activity relationship (QSAR models were suggested to predict the residues of unknown pesticides in the goat milk using their known physicochemical characteristics including molecular weight (MW, melting point (MP, and log octanol to water partition coefficient (Ko/w in relation to the characteristics such as pH, % fat, specific gravity and refractive index of goat milk. The analysis revealed good correlation coefficient (R2 = 0.985 for goat QSAR model. The coefficients for Ko/w and refractive index for the studied pesticides were higher in goat milk. This suggests that these are better determinants for pesticide residue prediction in the milk of these animals. Based upon the determined pesticide residues and their provisional tolerable daily intakes, risk analysis was also conducted which showed that daily intake levels of pesticide residues including cyhalothrin, chlorpyrifos and cypermethrin in present study are 2.68, 5.19 and 2.71 times higher, respectively in the goat milk. This intake of pesticide contaminated milk might pose health hazards to humans in this locality.

  4. Linking quantitative microbial risk assessment and epidemiological data: informing safe drinking water trials in developing countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enger, Kyle S; Nelson, Kara L; Clasen, Thomas; Rose, Joan B; Eisenberg, Joseph N S

    2012-05-01

    Intervention trials are used extensively to assess household water treatment (HWT) device efficacy against diarrheal disease in developing countries. Using these data for policy, however, requires addressing issues of generalizability (relevance of one trial in other contexts) and systematic bias associated with design and conduct of a study. To illustrate how quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) can address water safety and health issues, we analyzed a published randomized controlled trial (RCT) of the LifeStraw Family Filter in the Congo. The model accounted for bias due to (1) incomplete compliance with filtration, (2) unexpected antimicrobial activity by the placebo device, and (3) incomplete recall of diarrheal disease. Effectiveness was measured using the longitudinal prevalence ratio (LPR) of reported diarrhea. The Congo RCT observed an LPR of 0.84 (95% CI: 0.61, 1.14). Our model predicted LPRs, assuming a perfect placebo, ranging from 0.50 (2.5-97.5 percentile: 0.33, 0.77) to 0.86 (2.5-97.5 percentile: 0.68, 1.09) for high (but not perfect) and low (but not zero) compliance, respectively. The calibration step provided estimates of the concentrations of three pathogen types (modeled as diarrheagenic E. coli, Giardia, and rotavirus) in drinking water, consistent with the longitudinal prevalence of reported diarrhea measured in the trial, and constrained by epidemiological data from the trial. Use of a QMRA model demonstrated the importance of compliance in HWT efficacy, the need for pathogen data from source waters, the effect of quantifying biases associated with epidemiological data, and the usefulness of generalizing the effectiveness of HWT trials to other contexts. © 2012 American Chemical Society

  5. A theory-based approach to understanding suicide risk in shelter-seeking women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolford-Clevenger, Caitlin; Smith, Phillip N

    2015-04-01

    Women seeking shelter from intimate partner violence are at an increased risk for suicide ideation and attempts compared to women in the general population. Control-based violence, which is common among shelter-seeking women, may play a pivotal role in the development of suicide ideation and attempts. Current risk assessment and management practices for shelter-seeking women are limited by the lack of an empirically grounded understanding of increased risk in this population. We argue that in order to more effectively promote risk assessment and management, an empirically supported theory that is sensitive to the experiences of shelter-seeking women is needed. Such a theory-driven approach has the benefits of identifying and prioritizing targetable areas for intervention. Here, we review the evidence for the link between coercive control and suicide ideation and attempts from the perspective of Baumeister's escape theory of suicide. This theory has the potential to explain the role of coercive control in the development of suicide ideation and eventual attempts in shelter-seeking women. Implications for suicide risk assessment and prevention in domestic violence shelters are discussed. © The Author(s) 2014.

  6. Understanding HIV Risk Behavior among Tuberculosis Patients with Alcohol Use Disorders in Tomsk, Russian Federation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ann C Miller

    Full Text Available Russian Federation's (RF HIV epidemic is the fastest growing of any country. This study explores factors associated with high HIV risk behavior in tuberculosis (TB patients with alcohol use disorders in Tomsk, RF. This analysis was nested within the Integrated Management of Physician-delivered Alcohol Care for TB Patients (IMPACT, trial number NCT00675961 randomized controlled study of integrating alcohol treatment into TB treatment in Tomsk. Demographics, HIV risk behavior (defined as participant report of high-risk intravenous drug use and/or multiple sexual partners with inconsistent condom use in the last six months, clinical data, alcohol use, depression and psychosocial factors were collected from 196 participants (161 male and 35 female at baseline. Forty-six participants (23.5% endorsed HIV risk behavior at baseline. Incarceration history(Odds Ratio (OR3.93, 95% confidence interval (CI 1.95, 7.95, age under 41 (OR:2.97, CI:1.46, 6.04, drug addiction(OR: 3.60 CI:1.10, 11.77, history of a sexually transmitted disease(STD(OR 2.00 CI:1.02, 3.90, low social capital (OR:2.81 CI:0.99, 8.03 and heavier alcohol use (OR:2.56 CI: 1.02, 6.46 were significantly more likely to be associated with HIV risk behavior at baseline. In adjusted analysis, age under 41(OR: 4.93, CI: 2.10, 11.58, incarceration history(OR: 3.56 CI:1.55, 8.17 and STD history (OR: 3.48, CI: 1.5, 8.10 continued to be significantly associated with HIV risk behavior. Understanding HIV transmission dynamics in Russia remains an urgent priority to inform strategies to address the epidemic. Larger studies addressing sex differences in risks and barriers to protective behavior are needed.

  7. Study on quantitative risk assessment model of the third party damage for natural gas pipelines based on fuzzy comprehensive assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qiu, Zeyang; Liang, Wei; Lin, Yang; Zhang, Meng; Wang, Xue

    2017-01-01

    As an important part of national energy supply system, transmission pipelines for natural gas are possible to cause serious environmental pollution, life and property loss in case of accident. The third party damage is one of the most significant causes for natural gas pipeline system accidents, and it is very important to establish an effective quantitative risk assessment model of the third party damage for reducing the number of gas pipelines operation accidents. Against the third party damage accident has the characteristics such as diversity, complexity and uncertainty, this paper establishes a quantitative risk assessment model of the third party damage based on Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation (FCE). Firstly, risk sources of third party damage should be identified exactly, and the weight of factors could be determined via improved AHP, finally the importance of each factor is calculated by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model. The results show that the quantitative risk assessment model is suitable for the third party damage of natural gas pipelines and improvement measures could be put forward to avoid accidents based on the importance of each factor. (paper)

  8. Teaching Games for Understanding in American High-School Soccer: A Quantitative Data Analysis Using the Game Performance Assessment Instrument

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harvey, Stephen; Cushion, Christopher J.; Wegis, Heidi M.; Massa-Gonzalez, Ada N.

    2010-01-01

    Background: Previous research examining the effectiveness of the Teaching Games for Understanding (TGfU) approach has been equivocal. This has been hampered by a dependence on a comparative (i.e., "which method is best?") theoretical framework. An alternative "practice-referenced" framework has the potential to examine the effectiveness of TGfU…

  9. Understanding Genetic Breast Cancer Risk: Processing Loci of the BRCA Gist Intelligent Tutoring System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolfe, Christopher R; Reyna, Valerie F; Widmer, Colin L; Cedillos-Whynott, Elizabeth M; Brust-Renck, Priscila G; Weil, Audrey M; Hu, Xiangen

    2016-07-01

    The BRCA Gist Intelligent Tutoring System helps women understand and make decisions about genetic testing for breast cancer risk. BRCA Gist is guided by Fuzzy-Trace Theory, (FTT) and built using AutoTutor Lite. It responds differently to participants depending on what they say. Seven tutorial dialogues requiring explanation and argumentation are guided by three FTT concepts: forming gist explanations in one's own words, emphasizing decision-relevant information, and deliberating the consequences of decision alternatives. Participants were randomly assigned to BRCA Gist , a control, or impoverished BRCA Gist conditions removing gist explanation dialogues, argumentation dialogues, or FTT images. All BRCA Gist conditions performed significantly better than controls on knowledge, comprehension, and risk assessment. Significant differences in knowledge, comprehension, and fine-grained dialogue analyses demonstrate the efficacy of gist explanation dialogues. FTT images significantly increased knowledge. Providing more elements in arguments against testing correlated with increased knowledge and comprehension.

  10. Chinese approaches to understanding and building resilience in at-risk children and adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Tak-Yan; Shek, Daniel T L; Kwong, Wai-Man

    2007-04-01

    This article discusses the prevailing Chinese belief systems that have bearings on the perception and practices of promoting resilience among children and youth in a major city in China. It briefly describes a huge social intervention program entitled "Understanding the Adolescent Project" to combat the problems among grade 7 students identified as adolescents at risk from 2001 to 2004 in Hong Kong Special Administrative Region. A critical review of the problems encountered by social workers in the delivery of the program is presented to support the move to provide the preventive program for grade 4 students with clinical symptoms on a screening tool for identification of at-risk status. Starting in 2005, a large-scale positive youth development program was being developed for all secondary one to three (grades 7 to 9) students. Encouraging results of the evaluation studies demonstrated the effectiveness of this new preventive program, entitled Positive Adolescent Training through Holistic Social Programs.

  11. Gait and Cognition: A Complementary Approach to Understanding Brain Function and the Risk of Falling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montero-Odasso, Manuel; Verghese, Joe; Beauchet, Olivier; Hausdorff, Jeffrey M.

    2012-01-01

    Until recently, clinicians and researchers have performed gait assessments and cognitive assessments separately when evaluating older adults. Increasing evidence from clinical practice, epidemiological studies, and clinical trials shows that gait and cognition are inter-related in older adults. Quantifiable alterations in gait among older adults are associated with falls, dementia, and disability. At the same time, emerging evidence indicates that early disturbances in cognitive processes such as attention, executive function, and working memory are associated with slower gait and gait instability during single and dual-task testing, and that these cognitive disturbances assist in the prediction of future mobility loss, falls, and progression to dementia. This paper reviews the importance of the gait-cognition inter-relationship in aging and presents evidence that gait assessments can provide a window into the understanding of cognitive function and dysfunctions, and fall risk in older people in clinical practice. To this end, the benefits of dual-task gait assessments (e.g., walking while performing an attention-demanding task) as a marker of fall risk are summarized. Further, we also present a potential complementary approach for reducing the risk of falls by improving certain aspects of cognition through both non-pharmacological and pharmacological treatments. Untangling the relationship between early gait disturbances and early cognitive changes may be helpful for identifying older adults at higher risk of experiencing mobility decline, falls and the progression to dementia. PMID:23110433

  12. Understanding comorbidity among internalizing problems: Integrating latent structural models of psychopathology and risk mechanisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hankin, Benjamin L.; Snyder, Hannah R.; Gulley, Lauren D.; Schweizer, Tina H.; Bijttebier, Patricia; Nelis, Sabine; Toh, Gim; Vasey, Michael W.

    2016-01-01

    It is well known that comorbidity is the rule, not the exception, for categorically defined psychiatric disorders, and this is also the case for internalizing disorders of depression and anxiety. This theoretical review paper addresses the ubiquity of comorbidity among internalizing disorders. Our central thesis is that progress in understanding this co-occurrence can be made by employing latent dimensional structural models that organize both psychopathology as well as vulnerabilities and risk mechanisms and by connecting the multiple levels of risk and psychopathology outcomes together. Different vulnerabilities and risk mechanisms are hypothesized to predict different levels of the structural model of psychopathology. We review the present state of knowledge based on concurrent and developmental sequential comorbidity patterns among common discrete psychiatric disorders in youth, and then we advocate for the use of more recent bifactor dimensional models of psychopathology (e.g., p factor, Caspi et al., 2014) that can help to explain the co-occurrence among internalizing symptoms. In support of this relatively novel conceptual perspective, we review six exemplar vulnerabilities and risk mechanisms, including executive function, information processing biases, cognitive vulnerabilities, positive and negative affectivity aspects of temperament, and autonomic dysregulation, along with the developmental occurrence of stressors in different domains, to show how these vulnerabilities can predict the general latent psychopathology factor, a unique latent internalizing dimension, as well as specific symptom syndrome manifestations. PMID:27739389

  13. Precarity in late life: Understanding new forms of risk and insecurity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grenier, Amanda; Phillipson, Chris; Laliberte Rudman, Debbie; Hatzifilalithis, Stephanie; Kobayashi, Karen; Marier, Patrik

    2017-12-01

    Population aging and longevity in the context of declining social commitments, raises concerns about disadvantage and widening inequality in late life. This paper explores the concept of precarity as a means to understand new and sustained forms of risk and insecurity that affect late life. The article begins with a review of the definition and uses of precarity in a range of scholarly fields including social gerontology. It then draws on illustrations from three locations of experience including older women, aging with a disability, and the foreign-born, to outline how precarity renders visible the disadvantages carried into late life, and new insecurities that emerge at the moment of needing care in the context of austerity. The argument being put forward is that precarity can be used to illustrate how risks and insecurities, experienced over time, in longevity, and the context of austerity, can deepen disadvantage. This lens thus holds the potential to challenge individual interpretations of risk, and situate experiences of disadvantage in the economic and political context. We conclude that contemporary conditions of austerity and longevity intersect to produce and sustain risk and disadvantage into late life. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Consent for blood transfusion: do patients understand the risks and benefits?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheung, D; Lieberman, L; Lin, Y; Callum, J

    2014-10-01

    Blood transfusion is a frequent medical intervention in hospitals. The benefits of, risks of and alternatives to blood transfusions are not consistently understood by patients. The objective of this study was to assess gaps in knowledge and comfort with the current process of consenting patients for blood transfusions. A standardised video regarding the risk and benefits of blood transfusions was developed and feedback regarding this tool was assessed. After informed consent had been obtained, 25 patients receiving their first transfusion at a single academic centre were asked to complete a survey, watch a standardised educational video and complete a follow-up survey. The patient survey revealed that the information recollected from informed consent discussions was variable and incomplete. After the informed consent discussion, the majority of patients were comfortable with having a blood transfusion, although one-third did express concerns or worry about having a blood transfusion. After viewing the video, patients felt that the video improved their understanding of the risks (7·3 of 10), benefits (6·9 of 10) and alternatives (7·1 of 10) to transfusion, but it did not change their comfort with blood transfusion consent. Patients experienced a variable informed consent process prior to blood transfusion. Although the video improved their understanding of risks, it did not improve patient comfort towards giving consent for transfusion as the level of comfort was already high. The video is available online (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RxaPnLkgh-0) as an optional resource for patients (and physicians) who wish to receive standardised and accurate information about blood transfusions. © 2014 British Blood Transfusion Society.

  15. Multiple-Strain Approach and Probabilistic Modeling of Consumer Habits in Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment: A Quantitative Assessment of Exposure to Staphylococcal Enterotoxin A in Raw Milk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crotta, Matteo; Rizzi, Rita; Varisco, Giorgio; Daminelli, Paolo; Cunico, Elena Cosciani; Luini, Mario; Graber, Hans Ulrich; Paterlini, Franco; Guitian, Javier

    2016-03-01

    Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) models are extensively applied to inform management of a broad range of food safety risks. Inevitably, QMRA modeling involves an element of simplification of the biological process of interest. Two features that are frequently simplified or disregarded are the pathogenicity of multiple strains of a single pathogen and consumer behavior at the household level. In this study, we developed a QMRA model with a multiple-strain approach and a consumer phase module (CPM) based on uncertainty distributions fitted from field data. We modeled exposure to staphylococcal enterotoxin A in raw milk in Lombardy; a specific enterotoxin production module was thus included. The model is adaptable and could be used to assess the risk related to other pathogens in raw milk as well as other staphylococcal enterotoxins. The multiplestrain approach, implemented as a multinomial process, allowed the inclusion of variability and uncertainty with regard to pathogenicity at the bacterial level. Data from 301 questionnaires submitted to raw milk consumers were used to obtain uncertainty distributions for the CPM. The distributions were modeled to be easily updatable with further data or evidence. The sources of uncertainty due to the multiple-strain approach and the CPM were identified, and their impact on the output was assessed by comparing specific scenarios to the baseline. When the distributions reflecting the uncertainty in consumer behavior were fixed to the 95th percentile, the risk of exposure increased up to 160 times. This reflects the importance of taking into consideration the diversity of consumers' habits at the household level and the impact that the lack of knowledge about variables in the CPM can have on the final QMRA estimates. The multiple-strain approach lends itself to use in other food matrices besides raw milk and allows the model to better capture the complexity of the real world and to be capable of geographical

  16. A quantitative approach for risk-informed safety significance categorization in option-2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ha, Jun Su; Seong, Poong Hyun

    2004-01-01

    OPTION-2 recommends that Structures, Systems, or Components (SSCs) of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) should be categorized into four groups according to their safety significance as well as whether they are safety-related or not. With changes to the scope of SSCs covered by 10 CFR 50, safety-related components which categorized into low safety significant SSC (RISC-3 SSC) can be exempted from the existing conservative burden (or requirements). As OPTION-2 paradigm is applied, a lot of SSCs may be categorized into RISC-3 SSCs. Changes in treatment of the RISC-3 SSCs will be recommended and then finally the recommended changes shall be evaluated. Consequently, before recommending the changes in treatment, probable candidate SSCs for the changes in treatment need to be identified for efficient risk-informed regulation and application (RIRA). Hence, in this work, a validation focused on the RISC-3 SSCs is proposed to identify probable candidate SSCs. Burden to Importance Ratio (BIR) is utilized as a quantitative measure for the validation. BIR is a measure representing the extent of resources or requirements imposed on a SSC with respect to the value of the importance measure of the SSC. Therefore SSCs having high BIR can be considered as probable candidate SSCs for the changes in treatment. In addition, the final decision whether RISC-3 SSCs can be considered as probable candidate SSCs or not should be made by an expert panel. For the effective decision making, a structured mathematical decision-making process is constructed based on Belief Networks (BBN) to overcome demerits of conventional group meeting based on unstructured discussion for decision-making. To demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed approach, the approach is applied to 22 components selected from 512 In-Service Test (IST) components of Ulchin unit 3. The results of the application show that the proposed approach can identify probable candidate SSCs for changes in treatment. The identification of the

  17. Building shared understandings in introductory physics tutorials through risk, repair, conflict & comedy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conlin, Luke D.

    Collaborative inquiry learning environments, such as The Tutorials in Physics Sensemaking, are designed to provide students with opportunities to partake in the authentic disciplinary practices of argumentation and sensemaking. Through these practices, groups of students in tutorial can build shared conceptual understandings of the mechanisms behind physical phenomena. In order to do so, they must also build a shared epistemological understanding of what they are doing together, such that their activity includes collaboratively making sense of mechanisms. Previous work (Conlin, Gupta, Scherr, & Hammer, 2007; Scherr & Hammer, 2009) has demonstrated that tutorial students do not settle upon only one way of understanding their activity together, but instead build multiple shared ways of understanding, or framing (Scherr & Hammer, 2009; Tannen, 1993a), their activity. I build upon this work by substantiating a preliminary finding that one of these shared ways of framing corresponds with increased evidence of the students' collaboratively making sense of physical mechanisms. What previous research has not yet addressed is how the students come to understand their activity as including collaborative sensemaking discussions in the first place, and how that understanding develops over the course of the semester. In this dissertation, I address both of these questions through an in-depth video analysis of three groups' discussions throughout the semester. To build shared understandings through scientific argumentation and collaborative sensemaking, the students need to continually make repairs of each other's understanding, but this comes with the risk of affective damage that can shut down further sensemaking discussions. By analyzing the discourse of the three groups' discussions throughout the semester, I show how each group is able to manage this essential tension as they each build and maintain a safe space to sensemake together. I find that the three groups differ in

  18. The Importance of HRA in Human Space Flight: Understanding the Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamlin, Teri

    2010-01-01

    Human performance is critical to crew safety during space missions. Humans interact with hardware and software during ground processing, normal flight, and in response to events. Human interactions with hardware and software can cause Loss of Crew and/or Vehicle (LOCV) through improper actions, or may prevent LOCV through recovery and control actions. Humans have the ability to deal with complex situations and system interactions beyond the capability of machines. Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) is a method used to qualitatively and quantitatively assess the occurrence of human failures that affect availability and reliability of complex systems. Modeling human actions with their corresponding failure probabilities in a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) provides a more complete picture of system risks and risk contributions. A high-quality HRA can provide valuable information on potential areas for improvement, including training, procedures, human interfaces design, and the need for automation. Modeling human error has always been a challenge in part because performance data is not always readily available. For spaceflight, the challenge is amplified not only because of the small number of participants and limited amount of performance data available, but also due to the lack of definition of the unique factors influencing human performance in space. These factors, called performance shaping factors in HRA terminology, are used in HRA techniques to modify basic human error probabilities in order to capture the context of an analyzed task. Many of the human error modeling techniques were developed within the context of nuclear power plants and therefore the methodologies do not address spaceflight factors such as the effects of microgravity and longer duration missions. This presentation will describe the types of human error risks which have shown up as risk drivers in the Shuttle PRA which may be applicable to commercial space flight. As with other large PRAs

  19. A multidimensional approach to understanding the potential risk factors and covariates of adult picky eating.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, Jordan M; Schenk, Rebecca R; Galloway, Amy T; Zickgraf, Hana F; Webb, Rose Mary; Martz, Denise M

    2018-06-01

    Adult picky eating (PE) has received increased attention in the eating behavior literature due to its important association with adult avoidant-restrictive food intake disorder (ARFID). The current study tested a model of potential risk factors of adult PE behavior, including perceived early parental feeding practices. An exploratory model was also utilized to understand associations with different aspects of adult PE behaviors. A sample of 1339 US adults recruited through Amazon's MTurk completed an online survey that included the recently developed Adult Picky Eating Questionnaire (APEQ), retrospective reports of parental feeding practices, and other measures of eating behavior and demographic variables. A structural equation modeling procedure tested a series of regression models that included BMI and disordered eating behaviors as covariates. SEM modeling indicated that retrospective reports of greater parental pressure to eat, higher disgust sensitivity, lower PE age of onset, and experiencing an aversive food event were associated with general adult PE behavior. Results also indicated parental encouragement of healthy eating may be a protective factor, and that men endorsed higher levels of adult PE. Exploratory analyses indicated that cross-sectional predictors and covariates were differentially related to specific aspects of PE as measured by the APEQ subscales. Early experiences, including parental approaches to feeding, appear to be potential risk factors of PE behavior in adults. A nuanced understanding of adult PE is important for the prevention and treatment of severe PE behaviors, related psychosocial impairment, and ARFID. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Process Review for Development of Quantitative Risk Analyses for Transboundary Animal Disease to Pathogen-Free Territories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan Miller

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Outbreaks of transboundary animal diseases (TADs have the potential to cause significant detriment to animal, human, and environmental health; severe economic implications; and national security. Challenges concerning data sharing, model development, decision support, and disease emergence science have recently been promoted. These challenges and recommendations have been recognized and advocated in the disciplines intersecting with outbreak prediction and forecast modeling regarding infectious diseases. To advance the effective application of computation and risk communication, analytical products ought to follow a collaboratively agreed common plan for implementation. Research articles should seek to inform and assist prioritization of national and international strategies in developing established criteria to identify and follow best practice standards to assess risk model attributes and performance. A well-defined framework to help eliminate gaps in policy, process, and planning knowledge areas would help alleviate the intense need for the formation of a comprehensive strategy for countering TAD outbreak risks. A quantitative assessment that accurately captures the risk of introduction of a TAD through various pathways can be a powerful tool in guiding where government, academic, and industry resources ought to be allocated, whether implementation of additional risk management solutions is merited, and where research efforts should be directed to minimize risk. This review outlines a part of a process for the development of quantitative risk analysis to collect, analyze, and communicate this knowledge. A more comprehensive and unabridged manual was also developed. The framework used in supporting the application of aligning computational tools for readiness continues our approach to apply a preparedness mindset to challenges concerning threats to global biosecurity, secure food systems, and risk-mitigated agricultural economies.

  1. Risks to Birds Traded for African Traditional Medicine: A Quantitative Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Vivienne L.; Cunningham, Anthony B.; Kemp, Alan C.; Bruyns, Robin K.

    2014-01-01

    Few regional or continent-wide assessments of bird use for traditional medicine have been attempted anywhere in the world. Africa has the highest known diversity of bird species used for this purpose. This study assesses the vulnerability of 354 bird species used for traditional medicine in 25 African countries, from 205 genera, 70 families, and 25 orders. The orders most represented were Passeriformes (107 species), Falconiformes (45 species), and Coraciiformes (24 species), and the families Accipitridae (37 species), Ardeidae (15 species), and Bucerotidae (12 species). The Barn owl (Tyto alba) was the most widely sold species (seven countries). The similarity of avifaunal orders traded is high (analogous to “morphospecies”, and using Sørensen's index), which suggests opportunities for a common understanding of cultural factors driving demand. The highest similarity was between bird orders sold in markets of Benin vs. Burkina Faso (90%), but even bird orders sold in two geographically separated countries (Benin vs. South Africa and Nigeria vs. South Africa) were 87% and 81% similar, respectively. Rabinowitz's “7 forms of rarity” model, used to group species according to commonness or rarity, indicated that 24% of traded bird species are very common, locally abundant in several habitats, and occur over a large geographical area, but 10% are rare, occur in low numbers in specific habitats, and over a small geographical area. The order with the highest proportion of rare species was the Musophagiformes. An analysis of species mass (as a proxy for size) indicated that large and/or conspicuous species tend to be targeted by harvesters for the traditional medicine trade. Furthermore, based on cluster analyses for species groups of similar risk, vultures, hornbills, and other large avifauna, such as bustards, are most threatened by selective harvesting and should be prioritised for conservation action. PMID:25162700

  2. Risks to birds traded for African traditional medicine: a quantitative assessment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vivienne L Williams

    Full Text Available Few regional or continent-wide assessments of bird use for traditional medicine have been attempted anywhere in the world. Africa has the highest known diversity of bird species used for this purpose. This study assesses the vulnerability of 354 bird species used for traditional medicine in 25 African countries, from 205 genera, 70 families, and 25 orders. The orders most represented were Passeriformes (107 species, Falconiformes (45 species, and Coraciiformes (24 species, and the families Accipitridae (37 species, Ardeidae (15 species, and Bucerotidae (12 species. The Barn owl (Tyto alba was the most widely sold species (seven countries. The similarity of avifaunal orders traded is high (analogous to "morphospecies", and using Sørensen's index, which suggests opportunities for a common understanding of cultural factors driving demand. The highest similarity was between bird orders sold in markets of Benin vs. Burkina Faso (90%, but even bird orders sold in two geographically separated countries (Benin vs. South Africa and Nigeria vs. South Africa were 87% and 81% similar, respectively. Rabinowitz's "7 forms of rarity" model, used to group species according to commonness or rarity, indicated that 24% of traded bird species are very common, locally abundant in several habitats, and occur over a large geographical area, but 10% are rare, occur in low numbers in specific habitats, and over a small geographical area. The order with the highest proportion of rare species was the Musophagiformes. An analysis of species mass (as a proxy for size indicated that large and/or conspicuous species tend to be targeted by harvesters for the traditional medicine trade. Furthermore, based on cluster analyses for species groups of similar risk, vultures, hornbills, and other large avifauna, such as bustards, are most threatened by selective harvesting and should be prioritised for conservation action.

  3. Using quantitative magnetic resonance methods to understand better the gel-layer formation on polymer-matrix tablets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mikac, Urša; Kristl, Julijana; Baumgartner, Saša

    2011-05-01

    Magnetic resonance imaging is a powerful, non-invasive technique that can help improve our understanding of the hydrogel layer formed on swellable, polymer-matrix tablets, as well as the layer's properties and its influence on drug release. In this paper, the authors review the NMR and MRI investigations of hydrophilic, swellable polymers published since 1994. The review covers NMR studies on the properties of water and drugs within hydrated polymers. In addition, MRI studies using techniques for determining the different moving-front positions within the swollen tablets, the polymer concentration profiles across them, the influence of the incorporated drug, and so on, are presented. Some complementary methods are also briefly presented and discussed. Using MRI, the formation of a hydrogel along with simultaneous determination of the drug's position within it can be observed non-invasively. However, the MRI parameters can influence the signal's intensity and therefore they need to be considered carefully in order to prevent any misinterpretation of the results. MRI makes possible an in situ investigation of swollen-matrix tablets and provides valuable information that can lead, when combined with other techniques, to a better understanding of polymeric systems and a more effective development of optimal dosage forms.

  4. Understanding radiation and risk: the importance of primary and secondary education

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tada, Junichiro [Japan Synchrotron Radiation Research Institute (SPring-8), Mikaduki, Hyogo (Japan)

    1999-09-01

    In Japan's primary and secondary schools, radiation and radioactivity are taught as part of the curriculum dealing with social science subjects. Students learn much about the hazardous features of radiation, but lack the scientific understanding necessary to build a more balanced picture. Although the same point applies to education covering the harmful effects of volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, electrical storms and so on, public understanding of these events is relatively high and students are generally able to make informed judgments about the risks involved. By contrast, their limited understanding of radiation often contributes to fears that it is evil or even supernatural. To correct this distortion, it is important that primary and secondary education includes a scientific explanation of radiation. Like heat and light, radiation is fundamental to the history of the universe; and scientific education programs should give appropriate emphasis to this important subject. Students would then be able to make more objective judgments about the useful and hazardous aspects of radiation. (author)

  5. Forensic comparison and matching of fingerprints: using quantitative image measures for estimating error rates through understanding and predicting difficulty.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philip J Kellman

    Full Text Available Latent fingerprint examination is a complex task that, despite advances in image processing, still fundamentally depends on the visual judgments of highly trained human examiners. Fingerprints collected from crime scenes typically contain less information than fingerprints collected under controlled conditions. Specifically, they are often noisy and distorted and may contain only a portion of the total fingerprint area. Expertise in fingerprint comparison, like other forms of perceptual expertise, such as face recognition or aircraft identification, depends on perceptual learning processes that lead to the discovery of features and relations that matter in comparing prints. Relatively little is known about the perceptual processes involved in making comparisons, and even less is known about what characteristics of fingerprint pairs make particular comparisons easy or difficult. We measured expert examiner performance and judgments of difficulty and confidence on a new fingerprint database. We developed a number of quantitative measures of image characteristics and used multiple regression techniques to discover objective predictors of error as well as perceived difficulty and confidence. A number of useful predictors emerged, and these included variables related to image quality metrics, such as intensity and contrast information, as well as measures of information quantity, such as the total fingerprint area. Also included were configural features that fingerprint experts have noted, such as the presence and clarity of global features and fingerprint ridges. Within the constraints of the overall low error rates of experts, a regression model incorporating the derived predictors demonstrated reasonable success in predicting objective difficulty for print pairs, as shown both in goodness of fit measures to the original data set and in a cross validation test. The results indicate the plausibility of using objective image metrics to predict expert

  6. Forensic comparison and matching of fingerprints: using quantitative image measures for estimating error rates through understanding and predicting difficulty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kellman, Philip J; Mnookin, Jennifer L; Erlikhman, Gennady; Garrigan, Patrick; Ghose, Tandra; Mettler, Everett; Charlton, David; Dror, Itiel E

    2014-01-01

    Latent fingerprint examination is a complex task that, despite advances in image processing, still fundamentally depends on the visual judgments of highly trained human examiners. Fingerprints collected from crime scenes typically contain less information than fingerprints collected under controlled conditions. Specifically, they are often noisy and distorted and may contain only a portion of the total fingerprint area. Expertise in fingerprint comparison, like other forms of perceptual expertise, such as face recognition or aircraft identification, depends on perceptual learning processes that lead to the discovery of features and relations that matter in comparing prints. Relatively little is known about the perceptual processes involved in making comparisons, and even less is known about what characteristics of fingerprint pairs make particular comparisons easy or difficult. We measured expert examiner performance and judgments of difficulty and confidence on a new fingerprint database. We developed a number of quantitative measures of image characteristics and used multiple regression techniques to discover objective predictors of error as well as perceived difficulty and confidence. A number of useful predictors emerged, and these included variables related to image quality metrics, such as intensity and contrast information, as well as measures of information quantity, such as the total fingerprint area. Also included were configural features that fingerprint experts have noted, such as the presence and clarity of global features and fingerprint ridges. Within the constraints of the overall low error rates of experts, a regression model incorporating the derived predictors demonstrated reasonable success in predicting objective difficulty for print pairs, as shown both in goodness of fit measures to the original data set and in a cross validation test. The results indicate the plausibility of using objective image metrics to predict expert performance and

  7. Understanding your supply chain to reduce the risk of supply chain disruption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wildgoose, Nick; Brennan, Patrick; Thompson, Simon

    2012-01-01

    Supply chains are at the heart of the way in which organisations operate and compete today; they also play a critical role in overall organisation performance. In the context of increasingly complex and global supply chains, the actions taken to drive down costs are likely to drive risk into the supply chain. The frequency of supply chain disruptions is high and this paper offers practical advice to help reduce the frequency and cost associated with these. There is advice to help with the understanding of how to identify critical suppliers. The reader is guided through comprehensive risk assessment and mitigation approaches and a selection of practical risk solutions and tools that you can use is described. There is a section on the 'dos and don'ts' relating to supplier due diligence. For those organisations facing the challenge of drawing up a business case relating to investment in improving supply chain resiliency, there is also a section outlining some of the business benefits of improving supply chain resiliency.

  8. To kill a kangaroo: understanding the decision to pursue high-risk/high-gain resources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, James Holland; Bird, Rebecca Bliege; Bird, Douglas W

    2013-09-22

    In this paper, we attempt to understand hunter-gatherer foraging decisions about prey that vary in both the mean and variance of energy return using an expected utility framework. We show that for skewed distributions of energetic returns, the standard linear variance discounting (LVD) model for risk-sensitive foraging can produce quite misleading results. In addition to creating difficulties for the LVD model, the skewed distributions characteristic of hunting returns create challenges for estimating probability distribution functions required for expected utility. We present a solution using a two-component finite mixture model for foraging returns. We then use detailed foraging returns data based on focal follows of individual hunters in Western Australia hunting for high-risk/high-gain (hill kangaroo) and relatively low-risk/low-gain (sand monitor) prey. Using probability densities for the two resources estimated from the mixture models, combined with theoretically sensible utility curves characterized by diminishing marginal utility for the highest returns, we find that the expected utility of the sand monitors greatly exceeds that of kangaroos despite the fact that the mean energy return for kangaroos is nearly twice as large as that for sand monitors. We conclude that the decision to hunt hill kangaroos does not arise simply as part of an energetic utility-maximization strategy and that additional social, political or symbolic benefits must accrue to hunters of this highly variable prey.

  9. Understanding Sociocultural Factors Contributing to HIV Risk Among Ayoreo Bolivian Sex Workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    López Entrambasaguas, Olga María; Granero-Molina, José; Hernández-Padilla, Jose; Fernández-Sola, Cayetano

    2015-01-01

    The Bolivian indigenous Ayoreo ethnic people are vulnerable to sexually transmitted infections and HIV. Ayoreo women who also work in sex trades belong to an extremely high-risk group, and prevention programs are not delivering effective outcomes for them. The aim of our study was to explore, describe, and understand behavioral and cultural patterns related to sexual and reproductive health in Ayoreo sex workers. A qualitative-ethnographic study was designed; data were collected through participant observation and in-depth interviews with sex workers and key informants. Two fundamental themes contributing to HIV risk for female Ayoreo sex workers in Bolivia emerged: reproductive/sexual freedom and sociocultural risk determinants. We concluded that the in-depth examination of the sexual-reproductive culture amongst the Ayoreo has provided useful information, which might contribute to the cultural adaptation and design of future policies and prevention programs for sexually transmitted infections and HIV in this group. Copyright © 2015 Association of Nurses in AIDS Care. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Synthesis strategy: building a culturally sensitive mid-range theory of risk perception using literary, quantitative, and qualitative methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siaki, Leilani A; Loescher, Lois J; Trego, Lori L

    2013-03-01

    This article presents a discussion of development of a mid-range theory of risk perception. Unhealthy behaviours contribute to the development of health inequalities worldwide. The link between perceived risk and successful health behaviour change is inconclusive, particularly in vulnerable populations. This may be attributed to inattention to culture. The synthesis strategy of theory building guided the process using three methods: (1) a systematic review of literature published between 2000-2011 targeting perceived risk in vulnerable populations; (2) qualitative and (3) quantitative data from a study of Samoan Pacific Islanders at high risk of cardiovascular disease and diabetes. Main concepts of this theory include risk attention, appraisal processes, cognition, and affect. Overarching these concepts is health-world view: cultural ways of knowing, beliefs, values, images, and ideas. This theory proposes the following: (1) risk attention varies based on knowledge of the health risk in the context of health-world views; (2) risk appraisals are influenced by affect, health-world views, cultural customs, and protocols that intersect with the health risk; (3) strength of cultural beliefs, values, and images (cultural identity) mediate risk attention and risk appraisal influencing the likelihood that persons will engage in health-promoting behaviours that may contradict cultural customs/protocols. Interventions guided by a culturally sensitive mid-range theory may improve behaviour-related health inequalities in vulnerable populations. The synthesis strategy is an intensive process for developing a culturally sensitive mid-range theory. Testing of the theory will ascertain its usefulness for reducing health inequalities in vulnerable groups. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  11. Meta-analysis for quantitative microbiological risk assessments and benchmarking data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Besten, den H.M.W.; Zwietering, M.H.

    2012-01-01

    Meta-analysis studies are increasingly being conducted in the food microbiology area to quantitatively integrate the findings of many individual studies on specific questions or kinetic parameters of interest. Meta-analyses provide global estimates of parameters and quantify their variabilities, and

  12. A quantitative microbial risk assessment for meatborne Toxoplasma gondii infection in The Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Opsteegh, M.; Prickaerts, S.; Frankena, K.; Evers, E.G.

    2011-01-01

    Toxoplasma gondii is an important foodborne pathogen, and the cause of a high disease burden due to congenital toxoplasmosis in The Netherlands. The aim of this study was to quantify the relative contribution of sheep, beef and pork products to human T. gondii infections by Quantitative Microbial

  13. Quantitative genetic tools for insecticide resistance risk assessment: estimating the heritability of resistance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael J. Firko; Jane Leslie Hayes

    1990-01-01

    Quantitative genetic studies of resistance can provide estimates of genetic parameters not available with other types of genetic analyses. Three methods are discussed for estimating the amount of additive genetic variation in resistance to individual insecticides and subsequent estimation of heritability (h2) of resistance. Sibling analysis and...

  14. Designing SQCRA as a Software to Semi-quantitative Chemical Risk Assessment in Workplace

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Karimi

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Background & Objectives : The aim of chemical risk assessment is to identify and evaluate risks originated from chemicals usages. This study aims to design a practical tool for facilitating chemical risk assessment. Methods: The proposed software was derived from chemical risk assessment method which was recommended by Ministry of Human Resources of Malaysia. All of the processes in question are designed in operating system software. Based on some revisions, this software was developed using Visual Basic (VB titled as SQCRA. The developed software was used for chemical risk assessment in Narges Vegetale Oil Company in Shiraz (center of Iran. Result: The output of software showed that the level of risk derived from sulfuric acid, phosphoric acid, aluminum sulphate, nickel catalyst, acetic acid used as a raw material were 2.4, 2.84, 2.3, 3.5 and 2.66, respectively. Moreover, risk rank and proposed control methods for each of these materials were determined. Conclusions : The developed software calculates the health risk level based on the degree of hazard and exposure in shorttime and without using risk matrix and chemical formula. After determining the risk rank, the software proposes the control procedures to reduce occupational exposure.

  15. Decisions on the tolerability of risk: The use of quantitative risk assessment and the relevance of other factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cohen, A V [Health and Safety Executive, Baynards House, London (United Kingdom)

    1989-07-01

    A recent Discussion Document of the UK Health and Safety Executive proposes guidelines on the tolerable levels of individual and societal risks from nuclear power stations. At the various proposed levels a risk would be just tolerable and must be reduced further 'as low as reasonably practicable' (i.e. taking account of costs and benefits). These levels are induced from contemporary experience. No uniform upper level is proposed for tolerability for all societal risks. A stricter level is explicitly suggested for nuclear plant. A further study currently under way shows that FN curves suggest that (predictions for the very low probability of very high consequences apart) nuclear reactors rank favourably compared to many important non nuclear installations; in contrast to views held by some. Other factors are evidently involved in these views; there are some aspects of risk which cannot readily be presented on an FN curve, and there are 'dread' associations for some of the nuclear risks. The study is therefore also examining some decisions that have been taken in the UK about nuclear and non nuclear risks, based in part on estimates of societal risk. Comparison suggests that different levels of tolerability seem to be applied, according to the specific circumstances. Factors other than those shown in an FN curve evidently apply to these actual decisions as well. A preliminary identification of some of these factors is made. (author)

  16. Improved cancer risk stratification and diagnosis via quantitative phase microscopy (Conference Presentation)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yang; Uttam, Shikhar; Pham, Hoa V.; Hartman, Douglas J.

    2017-02-01

    Pathology remains the gold standard for cancer diagnosis and in some cases prognosis, in which trained pathologists examine abnormality in tissue architecture and cell morphology characteristic of cancer cells with a bright-field microscope. The limited resolution of conventional microscope can result in intra-observer variation, missed early-stage cancers, and indeterminate cases that often result in unnecessary invasive procedures in the absence of cancer. Assessment of nanoscale structural characteristics via quantitative phase represents a promising strategy for identifying pre-cancerous or cancerous cells, due to its nanoscale sensitivity to optical path length, simple sample preparation (i.e., label-free) and low cost. I will present the development of quantitative phase microscopy system in transmission and reflection configuration to detect the structural changes in nuclear architecture, not be easily identifiable by conventional pathology. Specifically, we will present the use of transmission-mode quantitative phase imaging to improve diagnostic accuracy of urine cytology and the nuclear dry mass is progressively correlate with negative, atypical, suspicious and positive cytological diagnosis. In a second application, we will present the use of reflection-mode quantitative phase microscopy for depth-resolved nanoscale nuclear architecture mapping (nanoNAM) of clinically prepared formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tissue sections. We demonstrated that the quantitative phase microscopy system detects a gradual increase in the density alteration of nuclear architecture during malignant transformation in animal models of colon carcinogenesis and in human patients with ulcerative colitis, even in tissue that appears histologically normal according to pathologists. We evaluated the ability of nanoNAM to predict "future" cancer progression in patients with ulcerative colitis.

  17. Quantitative microbial risk assessment for spray irrigation of dairy manure based on an empirical fate and transport model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burch, Tucker R; Spencer, Susan K.; Stokdyk, Joel; Kieke, Burney A; Larson, Rebecca A; Firnstahl, Aaron; Rule, Ana M; Borchardt, Mark A.

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Spray irrigation for land-applying livestock manure is increasing in the United States as farms become larger and economies of scale make manure irrigation affordable. Human health risks from exposure to zoonotic pathogens aerosolized during manure irrigation are not well understood. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to a) estimate human health risks due to aerosolized zoonotic pathogens downwind of spray-irrigated dairy manure; and b) determine which factors (e.g., distance, weather conditions) have the greatest influence on risk estimates. METHODS: We sampled downwind air concentrations of manure-borne fecal indicators and zoonotic pathogens during 21 full-scale dairy manure irri- gation events at three farms. We fit these data to hierarchical empirical models and used model outputs in a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) to estimate risk [probability of acute gastrointestinal illness (AGI)] for individuals exposed to spray-irrigated dairy manure containing Campylobacter jejuni, enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli (EHEC), or Salmonella spp. RESULTS: Median risk estimates from Monte Carlo simulations ranged from 10−5 to 10−2 and decreased with distance from the source. Risk estimates for Salmonella or EHEC-related AGI were most sensitive to the assumed level of pathogen prevalence in dairy manure, while risk estimates for C. jejuni were not sensitive to any single variable. Airborne microbe concentrations were negatively associated with distance and positively associated with wind speed, both of which were retained in models as a significant predictor more often than relative humidity, solar irradiation, or temperature. CONCLUSIONS: Our model-based estimates suggest that reducing pathogen prevalence and concentration in source manure would reduce the risk of AGI from exposure to manure irrigation, and that increasing the distance from irrigated manure (i.e., setbacks) and limiting irrigation to times of low wind speed may also reduce risk.

  18. Quantitative rock-fall hazard and risk assessment for Yosemite Valley, Yosemite National Park, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stock, Greg M.; Luco, Nicolas; Collins, Brian D.; Harp, Edwin L.; Reichenbach, Paola; Frankel, Kurt L.

    2014-01-01

    Rock falls are common in Yosemite Valley, California, posing substantial hazard and risk to the approximately four million annual visitors to Yosemite National Park. Rock falls in Yosemite Valley over the past few decades have damaged structures and caused injuries within developed regions located on or adjacent to talus slopes highlighting the need for additional investigations into rock-fall hazard and risk. This assessment builds upon previous investigations of rock-fall hazard and risk in Yosemite Valley and focuses on hazard and risk to structures posed by relatively frequent fragmental-type rock falls as large as approximately 100,000 (cubic meters) in volume.

  19. Theory-based approaches to understanding public emergency preparedness: implications for effective health and risk communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paek, Hye-Jin; Hilyard, Karen; Freimuth, Vicki; Barge, J Kevin; Mindlin, Michele

    2010-06-01

    Recent natural and human-caused disasters have awakened public health officials to the importance of emergency preparedness. Guided by health behavior and media effects theories, the analysis of a statewide survey in Georgia reveals that self-efficacy, subjective norm, and emergency news exposure are positively associated with the respondents' possession of emergency items and their stages of emergency preparedness. Practical implications suggest less focus on demographics as the sole predictor of emergency preparedness and more comprehensive measures of preparedness, including both a person's cognitive stage of preparedness and checklists of emergency items on hand. We highlight the utility of theory-based approaches for understanding and predicting public emergency preparedness as a way to enable more effective health and risk communication.

  20. Understanding self-Blame as a risk for unemployed young people

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pultz, Sabina

    and make sense of it and how they position themselves in regards to this normative demand to blame themselves. Personal branding and networking are identified as strategies enforced by the employment system and can be viewed as technologies of the self (Rose, 1996) encouraging young people to modulate......Young people face the risk of unemployment in a labor market characterized by a drift towards precarious employment (Kalleberg, 2013). Building on governmentality perspectives this study documents how understanding of unemployment is affected by neoliberal discourses reflected in the technologies...... applied by the institutions in the employment area. As a result, responsibility for unemployment is increasingly placed on the individual and self-blame is promoted as the predominant explanation, revitalizing attributional theory in a new way. This qualitative study consists of a combination of ten field...

  1. Comparing models for quantitative risk assessment: an application to the European Registry of foreign body injuries in children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berchialla, Paola; Scarinzi, Cecilia; Snidero, Silvia; Gregori, Dario

    2016-08-01

    Risk Assessment is the systematic study of decisions subject to uncertain consequences. An increasing interest has been focused on modeling techniques like Bayesian Networks since their capability of (1) combining in the probabilistic framework different type of evidence including both expert judgments and objective data; (2) overturning previous beliefs in the light of the new information being received and (3) making predictions even with incomplete data. In this work, we proposed a comparison among Bayesian Networks and other classical Quantitative Risk Assessment techniques such as Neural Networks, Classification Trees, Random Forests and Logistic Regression models. Hybrid approaches, combining both Classification Trees and Bayesian Networks, were also considered. Among Bayesian Networks, a clear distinction between purely data-driven approach and combination of expert knowledge with objective data is made. The aim of this paper consists in evaluating among this models which best can be applied, in the framework of Quantitative Risk Assessment, to assess the safety of children who are exposed to the risk of inhalation/insertion/aspiration of consumer products. The issue of preventing injuries in children is of paramount importance, in particular where product design is involved: quantifying the risk associated to product characteristics can be of great usefulness in addressing the product safety design regulation. Data of the European Registry of Foreign Bodies Injuries formed the starting evidence for risk assessment. Results showed that Bayesian Networks appeared to have both the ease of interpretability and accuracy in making prediction, even if simpler models like logistic regression still performed well. © The Author(s) 2013.

  2. A quantitative and comparative evaluation of the risks from nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vignes, S.; Bertin, M.; Nenot, J.C.

    1980-01-01

    All the significant data for the assessment of risks from the operation of nuclear power plants was collected and these risks were compared with all the risks of modern life. The scientific bases for the evaluation of individual risks and detriment were defined by UNSCEAR (1977) and by ICRP 26 (1978). In different industries, the risk of death from long term occupational illness is about 130 to 14,000 per million workers. For accidental deaths, the risk is estimated at about 16 to 1,600. The risk for the nuclear industry is lower than 100 per million workers. Comparisons are made with different causes of lethality: deaths from atmospheric pollution (sulfur compounds and dusts) related to fossile fuel combustion; iatrogenic accidents attributed to some drugs used in medicine or to other kind of treatment; calculated mortality for workers exposed to asestosis. The nuclear industr of the safest. The only risk to be considered is the major accident, the probability of which is very low. (H.K.)

  3. QUANTITATION OF MOLECULAR ENDPOINTS FOR THE DOSE-RESPONSE COMPONENT OF CANCER RISK ASSESSMENT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cancer risk assessment involves the steps of hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment and risk characterization. The rapid advances in the use of molecular biology approaches has had an impact on all four components, but the greatest overall current...

  4. Quantitative coronary plaque analysis predicts high-risk plaque morphology on coronary computed tomography angiography: results from the ROMICAT II trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Ting; Maurovich-Horvat, Pál; Mayrhofer, Thomas; Puchner, Stefan B; Lu, Michael T; Ghemigian, Khristine; Kitslaar, Pieter H; Broersen, Alexander; Pursnani, Amit; Hoffmann, Udo; Ferencik, Maros

    2018-02-01

    Semi-automated software can provide quantitative assessment of atherosclerotic plaques on coronary CT angiography (CTA). The relationship between established qualitative high-risk plaque features and quantitative plaque measurements has not been studied. We analyzed the association between quantitative plaque measurements and qualitative high-risk plaque features on coronary CTA. We included 260 patients with plaque who underwent coronary CTA in the Rule Out Myocardial Infarction/Ischemia Using Computer Assisted Tomography (ROMICAT) II trial. Quantitative plaque assessment and qualitative plaque characterization were performed on a per coronary segment basis. Quantitative coronary plaque measurements included plaque volume, plaque burden, remodeling index, and diameter stenosis. In qualitative analysis, high-risk plaque was present if positive remodeling, low CT attenuation plaque, napkin-ring sign or spotty calcium were detected. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the association between quantitative and qualitative high-risk plaque assessment. Among 888 segments with coronary plaque, high-risk plaque was present in 391 (44.0%) segments by qualitative analysis. In quantitative analysis, segments with high-risk plaque had higher total plaque volume, low CT attenuation plaque volume, plaque burden and remodeling index. Quantitatively assessed low CT attenuation plaque volume (odds ratio 1.12 per 1 mm 3 , 95% CI 1.04-1.21), positive remodeling (odds ratio 1.25 per 0.1, 95% CI 1.10-1.41) and plaque burden (odds ratio 1.53 per 0.1, 95% CI 1.08-2.16) were associated with high-risk plaque. Quantitative coronary plaque characteristics (low CT attenuation plaque volume, positive remodeling and plaque burden) measured by semi-automated software correlated with qualitative assessment of high-risk plaque features.

  5. Understanding the Delamination Risk of a Trilayer Tablet Using Minipiloting Tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, Jing; Robertson-Lavalle, Sophia; Pandey, Preetanshu; Badawy, Sherif

    2017-11-01

    A multilayer tablet is one of the formulation options used to mitigate chemical and physical incompatibility between different drug substances. Feasibility studies of multilayer tablets are often conducted using round flat-faced punch tooling. However, the link between different tooling designs and multilayer tablet performance is not well established. This study uses a prototype trilayer tablet and examines tooling design considerations when conducting small-scale studies to gauge the risk of interfacial defects. The impact of tablet weight and dimensions was evaluated to gain understanding of the effect of scale-up/down of tablet size. The factors in tooling selection, including tablet shape, cup depth, and size of embossing were evaluated to gain insight on the impact of tooling design on the interfacial strength of the trilayer tablet. It was found that tablet weight and dimensions can significantly affect the interfacial strength due to their impact on force transmission during compression and the retardation force from the die wall during ejection. Round flat-faced tooling generated trilayer tablets of the strongest interfacial strength compared to typical commercial tablets-oval shaped with concave surfaces. These factors should be accounted for when using round flat compacts to assess the interface risks of a multilayer tablet. Copyright © 2017 American Pharmacists Association®. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Using community archetypes to better understand differential community adaptation to wildfire risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carroll, Matthew; Paveglio, Travis

    2016-06-05

    One of the immediate challenges of wildfire management concerns threats to human safety and property in residential areas adjacent to non-cultivated vegetation. One approach for relieving this problem is to increase human community 'adaptiveness' to deal with the risk and reality of fire in a variety of landscapes. The challenge in creating 'fire-adapted communities' (FACs) is the great diversity in character and make-up of populations at risk from wildfire. This paper outlines a recently developed categorization scheme for Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) communities based on a larger conceptual approach for understanding how social diversity is likely to influence the creation of FACs. The WUI categorization scheme situates four community archetypes on a continuum that recognizes dynamic change in human community functioning. We use results from the WUI classification scheme to outline key characteristics associated with each archetype and results from recent case studies to demonstrate the diversity across WUI communities. Differences among key characteristics of local social context will likely result in the need for different adaptation strategies to wildfire. While the WUI archetypes described here may not be broadly applicable to other parts of the world, we argue that the conceptual approach and strategies for systematically documenting local influences on wildfire adaptation have potential for broad application.This article is part of the themed issue 'The interaction of fire and mankind'. © 2016 The Author(s).

  7. Combining quantitative and qualitative breast density measures to assess breast cancer risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerlikowske, Karla; Ma, Lin; Scott, Christopher G; Mahmoudzadeh, Amir P; Jensen, Matthew R; Sprague, Brian L; Henderson, Louise M; Pankratz, V Shane; Cummings, Steven R; Miglioretti, Diana L; Vachon, Celine M; Shepherd, John A

    2017-08-22

    Accurately identifying women with dense breasts (Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System [BI-RADS] heterogeneously or extremely dense) who are at high breast cancer risk will facilitate discussions of supplemental imaging and primary prevention. We examined the independent contribution of dense breast volume and BI-RADS breast density to predict invasive breast cancer and whether dense breast volume combined with Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) risk model factors (age, race/ethnicity, family history of breast cancer, history of breast biopsy, and BI-RADS breast density) improves identifying women with dense breasts at high breast cancer risk. We conducted a case-control study of 1720 women with invasive cancer and 3686 control subjects. We calculated ORs and 95% CIs for the effect of BI-RADS breast density and Volpara™ automated dense breast volume on invasive cancer risk, adjusting for other BCSC risk model factors plus body mass index (BMI), and we compared C-statistics between models. We calculated BCSC 5-year breast cancer risk, incorporating the adjusted ORs associated with dense breast volume. Compared with women with BI-RADS scattered fibroglandular densities and second-quartile dense breast volume, women with BI-RADS extremely dense breasts and third- or fourth-quartile dense breast volume (75% of women with extremely dense breasts) had high breast cancer risk (OR 2.87, 95% CI 1.84-4.47, and OR 2.56, 95% CI 1.87-3.52, respectively), whereas women with extremely dense breasts and first- or second-quartile dense breast volume were not at significantly increased breast cancer risk (OR 1.53, 95% CI 0.75-3.09, and OR 1.50, 95% CI 0.82-2.73, respectively). Adding continuous dense breast volume to a model with BCSC risk model factors and BMI increased discriminatory accuracy compared with a model with only BCSC risk model factors (C-statistic 0.639, 95% CI 0.623-0.654, vs. C-statistic 0.614, 95% CI 0.598-0.630, respectively; P breasts and fourth

  8. Quantitative microbial risk assessment of Salmonella in dry fermented sausage (salami) in Southern Brazil

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Corbellini, Luis Gustavo; Costa, Eduardo de Freitas; Cardoso, Marisa

    2017-01-01

    Dry fermented sausage (salami) is a very popular ready-to-eat product in Southern Brazil, of which the raw materials can be contaminated with pathogens such as Salmonella. This product can put consumers at risk if a failure occurs during the manufacturing process. To investigate this risk...... and heterogeneous). In general, it was observed that the mean exposure to Salmonella due to ingestion of a portion of contaminated salami was very low; "zero risks" (with no cases of salmonellosis among 100,000 consumed portions of salami) were found in 65% of the scenarios (265/405) assessed and low risks were...... low, selling dry fermented sausage before complete maturation of the product and failure in fermentation can pose a risk to the consumers from the studied region. It was found that a maturation period of 24 days can be considered safe, even in a situation with high initial levels of contamination....

  9. Understanding of the risk of HIV infection among the elderly in Ga-Rankuwa, South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lekalakala-Mokgele, Eucebious

    2014-01-01

    The literature pertaining to the elderly shows that HIV infection among this population is on the increase, suggesting that the elderly population engages in activities risky for HIV infection. Reports on such behaviour include frequent sexual relations with much younger people and having multiple partners. A study was carried out in Ga-Rankuwa, a black township in Gauteng Province, South Africa to explore and describe the understanding of these elderly people regarding their risks of HIV infection and AIDS. Using a qualitative, exploratory design, three focus-group interviews were conducted with 32 women aged over 50 years. Findings revealed that older persons have knowledge about transmission of HIV infection and AIDS. However, a few had misconceptions as to how HIV infection is transmitted, as they believed that poor nutrition and sharing facilities play a role. Knowledge of mechanisms of protecting themselves against infection, such as use of a condom during coitus and wearing gloves when caring for infected family members, was also evident. The elderly indicated that they would prefer an older person, who they could identify with, to educate them more about HIV infection and AIDS. Although majority of participants had knowledge of how HIV is transmitted, and issues that put them at risk of transmission, a few the older persons had misconceptions about how HIV is transmitted due to lack of knowledge, as they believed that poor nutrition and sharing facilities can transmit infection. The lack of knowledge underscores the importance of addressing sexual risk with older people. It was very clear that more needs to be done in terms of education campaigns to dispel the myths of HIV infection and to empower the elderly.

  10. Understanding flood risk sensitivity and uncertainty in a subcatchment of the Thames River (United Kingdom)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Theofanidi, Sofia; Cloke, Hannah Louise; Clark, Joanna

    2017-04-01

    Floods are a global threat to social, economic and environmental development and there is a likelihood, that they could occur more frequently in the future due to climatic change. The severity of their impacts, which can last for years, has led to the urgent need for local communities and national authorities to develop flood warning systems for a better flood preparedness and emergency response. The flood warning systems often rely on hydrological forecasting tools to predict the hydrological response of a watershed before or during a flood event. Hydrological models have been substantially upgraded since the first use of hydrographs and the use of simple conceptual models. Hydrodynamic and hydraulic routing enables the spatial and temporal prediction of flow rates (peak discharges) and water levels. Moreover, the hydrodynamic modeling in 2D permits the estimation of the flood inundation area. This can be particularly useful because the flood zones can provide essential information about the flood risk and the flood damage. In this study, we use a hydrodynamic model which can simulate water levels and river flows in open channel conditions. The model can incorporate the effect of several river structures in the flood modeling process, such as the existence of bridges and weirs. The flood routing method is based on the solution of continuity and energy momentum equations. In addition, the floodplain inundation modeling which is based on the solution of shallow water equations along the channel's banks, will be used for the mapping of flood extent. A GIS interface will serve as a database, including high resolution topography, vector layers of river network, gauging stations, land use and land cover, geology and soil information. The flood frequency analysis, together with historical records on flood warnings, will enable the understanding on the flow regimes and the selection of particular flood events for modeling. One dimensional and two dimensional simulations

  11. Community Resilience: Increasing Public Understanding of Risk and Vulnerability to Natural Hazards through Informal Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salna, E.

    2017-12-01

    The Extreme Events Institute's (EEI) International Hurricane Research Center (IHRC) at Florida International University (FIU) in Miami, Florida, as a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador, is dedicated to make South Florida, Ready, Responsive and Resilient. IHRC with funding from the Florida Division of Emergency Management (FDEM) has developed several museum exhibits and events. This includes the hands-on FIU Wall of Wind exhibit for the National Building Museum in Washington, DC, the Frost Science Museum in Miami, Florida, and the Museum of Discovery and Science (MODS) in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. The exhibit teaches the public about hurricane wind engineering research, enhanced building codes, and the importance of protecting your home's windows and doors with code-approved shutters. In addition, IHRC and MODS facilitate Eye of the Storm, a free-of-charge, community event with interactive hurricane science, and preparedness activities, including the entertaining Owlie Skywarn live theater show and live air cannon missile impact demonstrations. This annual event includes many local, state and federal partners, including NOAA and NWS. The IHRC also developed the FIU Wall of Wind Mitigation Challenge. As the next generation of engineers to address natural hazards and extreme weather, this STEM education event features a competition between high school teams to develop innovative wind mitigation concepts and real-life human safety and property protection solutions. IHRC and MODS are also developing a new exhibit of a Hazard/Risk Equation that will "come to life," through virtual reality (VR) technology in a state-of-the art 7D theater. The exhibit will provide a better public understanding of how changes in exposures and vulnerabilities will determine whether a community experiences an emergency, disaster or catastrophe. It will raise public consciousness and drive home the point that communities need not passively accept natural hazard risks. Ultimately, if we raise

  12. Quantitative modeling of operational risk in finance and banking using possibility theory

    CERN Document Server

    Chaudhuri, Arindam

    2016-01-01

    This book offers a comprehensive guide to the modelling of operational risk using possibility theory. It provides a set of methods for measuring operational risks under a certain degree of vagueness and impreciseness, as encountered in real-life data. It shows how possibility theory and indeterminate uncertainty-encompassing degrees of belief can be applied in analysing the risk function, and describes the parametric g-and-h distribution associated with extreme value theory as an interesting candidate in this regard. The book offers a complete assessment of fuzzy methods for determining both value at risk (VaR) and subjective value at risk (SVaR), together with a stability estimation of VaR and SVaR. Based on the simulation studies and case studies reported on here, the possibilistic quantification of risk performs consistently better than the probabilistic model. Risk is evaluated by integrating two fuzzy techniques: the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and the fuzzy extension of techniques for order prefere...

  13. Quantitative evaluation of the risk induced by dominant geomorphological processes on different land uses, based on GIS spatial analysis models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ştefan, Bilaşco; Sanda, Roşca; Ioan, Fodorean; Iuliu, Vescan; Sorin, Filip; Dănuţ, Petrea

    2017-12-01

    Maramureş Land is mostly characterized by agricultural and forestry land use due to its specific configuration of topography and its specific pedoclimatic conditions. Taking into consideration the trend of the last century from the perspective of land management, a decrease in the surface of agricultural lands to the advantage of built-up and grass lands, as well as an accelerated decrease in the forest cover due to uncontrolled and irrational forest exploitation, has become obvious. The field analysis performed on the territory of Maramureş Land has highlighted a high frequency of two geomorphologic processes — landslides and soil erosion — which have a major negative impact on land use due to their rate of occurrence. The main aim of the present study is the GIS modeling of the two geomorphologic processes, determining a state of vulnerability (the USLE model for soil erosion and a quantitative model based on the morphometric characteristics of the territory, derived from the HG. 447/2003) and their integration in a complex model of cumulated vulnerability identification. The modeling of the risk exposure was performed using a quantitative approach based on models and equations of spatial analysis, which were developed with modeled raster data structures and primary vector data, through a matrix highlighting the correspondence between vulnerability and land use classes. The quantitative analysis of the risk was performed by taking into consideration the exposure classes as modeled databases and the land price as a primary alphanumeric database using spatial analysis techniques for each class by means of the attribute table. The spatial results highlight the territories with a high risk to present geomorphologic processes that have a high degree of occurrence and represent a useful tool in the process of spatial planning.

  14. Quantitative evaluation of the risk induced by dominant geomorphological processes on different land uses, based on GIS spatial analysis models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ştefan, Bilaşco; Sanda, Roşca; Ioan, Fodorean; Iuliu, Vescan; Sorin, Filip; Dănuţ, Petrea

    2018-06-01

    Maramureş Land is mostly characterized by agricultural and forestry land use due to its specific configuration of topography and its specific pedoclimatic conditions. Taking into consideration the trend of the last century from the perspective of land management, a decrease in the surface of agricultural lands to the advantage of built-up and grass lands, as well as an accelerated decrease in the forest cover due to uncontrolled and irrational forest exploitation, has become obvious. The field analysis performed on the territory of Maramureş Land has highlighted a high frequency of two geomorphologic processes — landslides and soil erosion — which have a major negative impact on land use due to their rate of occurrence. The main aim of the present study is the GIS modeling of the two geomorphologic processes, determining a state of vulnerability (the USLE model for soil erosion and a quantitative model based on the morphometric characteristics of the territory, derived from the HG. 447/2003) and their integration in a complex model of cumulated vulnerability identification. The modeling of the risk exposure was performed using a quantitative approach based on models and equations of spatial analysis, which were developed with modeled raster data structures and primary vector data, through a matrix highlighting the correspondence between vulnerability and land use classes. The quantitative analysis of the risk was performed by taking into consideration the exposure classes as modeled databases and the land price as a primary alphanumeric database using spatial analysis techniques for each class by means of the attribute table. The spatial results highlight the territories with a high risk to present geomorphologic processes that have a high degree of occurrence and represent a useful tool in the process of spatial planning.

  15. Using Quantitative Data Analysis Techniques for Bankruptcy Risk Estimation for Corporations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ştefan Daniel ARMEANU

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Diversification of methods and techniques for quantification and management of risk has led to the development of many mathematical models, a large part of which focused on measuring bankruptcy risk for businesses. In financial analysis there are many indicators which can be used to assess the risk of bankruptcy of enterprises but to make an assessment it is needed to reduce the number of indicators and this can be achieved through principal component, cluster and discriminant analyses techniques. In this context, the article aims to build a scoring function used to identify bankrupt companies, using a sample of companies listed on Bucharest Stock Exchange.

  16. F167. ACCESS, UNDERSTAND, APPRAISE AND APPLY TO / OF HEALTH INFORMATION AND HEALTH LITERACY IN INDIVIDUALS AT-RISK FOR PSYCHOSIS: A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seves, Mauro; Haidl, Theresa; Eggers, Susanne; Rostamzadeh, Ayda; Genske, Anna; Jünger, Saskia; Woopen, Christiane; Jessen, Frank; Ruhrmann, Stephan

    2018-01-01

    Abstract Background Numerous studies suggest that health literacy (HL) plays a crucial role in maintaining and improving individual health. Furthermore, empirical findings highlight the relation between levels of a person’s HL and clinical outcomes. So far, there are no reviews, which investigate HL in individuals at-risk for psychosis. The aim of the current review is to assess how individuals at risk of developing a first episode of psychosis gain access to, understand, evaluate and apply risk-related health information. Methods A mixed-methods approach was used to analyze and synthesize a variety of study types including qualitative and quantitative studies. Search strategy, screening and data selection have been carried out according to the PRISMA criteria. The systematic search was applied on peer-reviewed literature in PUBMED, Cochrane Library, PsycINFO and Web of Science. Studies were included if participants met clinical high risk criteria (CHR), including the basic symptom criterion (BS) and the ultra-high risk (UHR) criteria. The UHR criteria comprise the attenuated psychotic symptom criterion (APS), the brief limited psychotic symptom criterion (BLIPS) and the genetic risk and functional decline criterion (GRDP) Furthermore, studies must have used validated HL measures or any operationalization of the HL’s subdimensions (access, understanding, appraisal, decision-making or action) as a primary outcome. A third inclusion criterion comprised that the concept of HL or one of the four dimensions was mentioned in title or abstract. Data extraction and synthesis was implemented according to existing recommendations for appraising evidence from different study types. The quality of the included studies was evaluated and related to the study results. Results The search string returned 10587 papers. After data extraction 15 quantitative as well as 4 qualitative studies and 3 reviews were included. The Quality assessment evaluated 12 publications as

  17. Presentation of a method for consequence modeling and quantitative risk assessment of fire and explosion in process industry (Case study: Hydrogen Production Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M J Jafari

    2013-05-01

     .Conclusion: Since the proposed method is applicable in all phases of process or system design, and estimates the risk of fire and explosion by a quantitative, comprehensive and mathematical-based equations approach. It can be used as an alternative method instead of qualitative and semi quantitative methods.

  18. Risk Quantitative Determination of Fire and Explosion in a Process Unit By Dow’s Fire and Explosion Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Varmazyar

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Background and aims   Fire and explosion hazards are the first and second of major hazards in process industries, respectively. This study has been done to determine fire and explosion risk severity,radius of exposure and estimating of most probable loss.   Methods   In this quantitative study process unit has been selected with affecting parameters on  fire and explosion risk. Then, it was analyzed by DOW's fire and explosion index (F&EI. Technical data were obtained from process documents and reports, fire and explosion guideline.After calculating of DOW's index, radius of exposure determined and finally most  probable loss was estimated.   Results   The results showed an F&EI value of 226 for this process unit.The F&EI was extremely  high and unacceptable.Risk severity was categorized in sever class.Radius of exposure and damage factor were calculated 57 meters and 83%,respectively. As well as most probable loss was  estimated about 6.7 million dollars.   Conclusion   F&EI is a proper technique for risk assessment and loss estimation of fire and  explosion in process industries.Also,It is an important index for detecting high risk and low risk   areas in an industry. At this technique, all of factors affecting on fire and explosion risk was  showed as index that is a base for judgement risk class. Finally, estimated losses could be used as  a base of fire and explosion insurance.

  19. Potential impacts of radon, terrestrial gamma and cosmic rays on childhood leukemia in France: a quantitative risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laurent, Olivier [French Institute for Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety, Radiobiology and Epidemiology Department, IRSN, PRP-HOM, SRBE, LEPID, Fontenay aux Roses (France); University of California, Irvine, Department of Population Health and Disease Prevention, Irvine, CA (United States); Ancelet, Sophie; Laurier, Dominique [French Institute for Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety, Radiobiology and Epidemiology Department, IRSN, PRP-HOM, SRBE, LEPID, Fontenay aux Roses (France); Richardson, David B. [University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Chapel Hill, NC (United States); Hemon, Denis; Demoury, Claire; Clavel, Jacqueline [Inserm, CESP Center for Research in Epidemiology and Population Health, U1018, Environmental Epidemiology of Cancer Team, Villejuif (France); Paris-Sud University, UMRS 1018, Villejuif (France); Ielsch, Geraldine [French Institute for Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety, Assessment Unit for Risks Related to Natural Radioactivity, IRSN, PRP-DGE, SEDRAN, BRN, Fontenay aux Roses (France)

    2013-05-15

    Previous epidemiological studies and quantitative risk assessments (QRA) have suggested that natural background radiation may be a cause of childhood leukemia. The present work uses a QRA approach to predict the excess risk of childhood leukemia in France related to three components of natural radiation: radon, cosmic rays and terrestrial gamma rays, using excess relative and absolute risk models proposed by the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR). Both models were developed from the Life Span Study (LSS) of Japanese A-bomb survivors. Previous risk assessments were extended by considering uncertainties in radiation-related leukemia risk model parameters as part of this process, within a Bayesian framework. Estimated red bone marrow doses cumulated during childhood by the average French child due to radon, terrestrial gamma and cosmic rays are 4.4, 7.5 and 4.3 mSv, respectively. The excess fractions of cases (expressed as percentages) associated with these sources of natural radiation are 20 % [95 % credible interval (CI) 0-68 %] and 4 % (95 % CI 0-11 %) under the excess relative and excess absolute risk models, respectively. The large CIs, as well as the different point estimates obtained under these two models, highlight the uncertainties in predictions of radiation-related childhood leukemia risks. These results are only valid provided that models developed from the LSS can be transferred to the population of French children and to chronic natural radiation exposures, and must be considered in view of the currently limited knowledge concerning other potential risk factors for childhood leukemia. Last, they emphasize the need for further epidemiological investigations of the effects of natural radiation on childhood leukemia to reduce uncertainties and help refine radiation protection standards. (orig.)

  20. Potential impacts of radon, terrestrial gamma and cosmic rays on childhood leukemia in France: a quantitative risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laurent, Olivier; Ancelet, Sophie; Laurier, Dominique; Richardson, David B.; Hemon, Denis; Demoury, Claire; Clavel, Jacqueline; Ielsch, Geraldine

    2013-01-01

    Previous epidemiological studies and quantitative risk assessments (QRA) have suggested that natural background radiation may be a cause of childhood leukemia. The present work uses a QRA approach to predict the excess risk of childhood leukemia in France related to three components of natural radiation: radon, cosmic rays and terrestrial gamma rays, using excess relative and absolute risk models proposed by the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR). Both models were developed from the Life Span Study (LSS) of Japanese A-bomb survivors. Previous risk assessments were extended by considering uncertainties in radiation-related leukemia risk model parameters as part of this process, within a Bayesian framework. Estimated red bone marrow doses cumulated during childhood by the average French child due to radon, terrestrial gamma and cosmic rays are 4.4, 7.5 and 4.3 mSv, respectively. The excess fractions of cases (expressed as percentages) associated with these sources of natural radiation are 20 % [95 % credible interval (CI) 0-68 %] and 4 % (95 % CI 0-11 %) under the excess relative and excess absolute risk models, respectively. The large CIs, as well as the different point estimates obtained under these two models, highlight the uncertainties in predictions of radiation-related childhood leukemia risks. These results are only valid provided that models developed from the LSS can be transferred to the population of French children and to chronic natural radiation exposures, and must be considered in view of the currently limited knowledge concerning other potential risk factors for childhood leukemia. Last, they emphasize the need for further epidemiological investigations of the effects of natural radiation on childhood leukemia to reduce uncertainties and help refine radiation protection standards. (orig.)

  1. Understanding social capital and HIV risk in rural African American communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cené, Crystal W; Akers, Aletha Y; Lloyd, Stacey W; Albritton, Tashuna; Powell Hammond, Wizdom; Corbie-Smith, Giselle

    2011-07-01

    African Americans (AA) and rural communities often suffer disproportionately from poorer health. Theory-guided research examining how individual- and community-level factors influence health behaviors and contribute to disparities is needed. To understand how a social network model that captures the interplay between individual and community factors might inform community-based interventions to reduce HIV risk in rural AA communities. Qualitative study. Eleven focus groups with 38 AA 16-24 year olds, 42 adults over age 25, and 13 formerly incarcerated individuals held in community settings in two rural, predominantly AA counties in North Carolina. Thirty-seven semi-structured interviews with multiethnic key informants. Semi-structured interviews and focus groups with open-ended questions assessed a) perceptions of multi-level HIV risk determinants from a social network model (individual, interpersonal, social, economic, political and structural) identified through literature review and b) community needs and assets affecting local HIV rates. Qualitative data was analyzed using directive content analysis guided by a social network model. We identified four themes regarding the interaction between individuals and their communities that mediate HIV risk: interpersonal processes, community structural environment, social disorder, and civic engagement. Communities were characterized as having a high degree of cohesiveness, tension, and HIV-related stigma. The community structural environment-characterized by neighborhood poverty, lack of skilled jobs, segregation, political disenfranchisement and institutional racism-was felt to reduce the availability and accessibility of resources to combat HIV. Adults noted an inability to combat social problems due to social disorder, which fuels HIV risk behaviors. Civic engagement as a means of identifying community concerns and developing solutions is limited by churches' reluctance to address HIV-related issues. To combat HIV

  2. A risk assessment-driven quantitative comparison of gene expression profiles in PBMCs and white adipose tissue of humans and rats after isoflavone supplementation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Velpen, van der V.; Veer, van 't P.; Islam, M.A.; Braak, ter C.J.F.; Leeuwen, F.X.R.; Afman, L.A.; Hollman, P.C.H.; Schouten, A.; Geelen, M.M.E.E.

    2016-01-01

    Quantitative insight into species differences in risk assessment is expected to reduce uncertainty and variability related to extrapolation from animals to humans. This paper explores quantification and comparison of gene expression data between tissues and species from intervention studies with

  3. Logic and Risk as Qualitative and Quantitative Dimensions of Decision-Making Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tadeusz Galanc

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Key problems in the field of decision-making have been considered. The authors' aim was to indicate the extremely important for management role of logic and risk in relation to decisions taken under conditions of uncertainty. In the course of the research, the following hypothesis was tested: the complexity of risk is determined by the diversity of reality. The result of this is that in science there is no current study developing a uniform methodology for the assessment of risk. It might even be doubtful whether it can be created. In a certain sense, this is indicated in the article by the discussion about the dimensions of logic and risk apparent in any decisions taken by a man. The paper presents the complexity and diversity of risk assessment on the basis of selected, but essential to the discussed issue, fields of knowledge. This is valid when the numerical or qualitative level of risk is substantial in the context of the analyzed problem. (original abstract

  4. EIF onshore discharges : a quantitative environmental risk assessment tool for onshore facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hagemann, R.; Smit, M.G.D.; Frost, T.K. [Statoil ASA, Stavenger (Norway); Firth, S.K. [Firth Consultants, Bristol (United Kingdom); Stone, K. [WorleyParsons, Victoria, BC (Canada)

    2009-07-01

    The proper management of environmental risk is a key requirement of StatoilHydro's governing documents and is a key consideration in all phases of StatoilHydro's activities. In order to help manage risks in an effective and sustainable manner, StatoilHydro has led the development of the environmental impact factor (EIF) risk assessment tool. The EIF is utilized by all operators on the Norwegian Continental Shelf for reporting continuous improvements in produced water management to the authorities. The EIF concept has also been applied to evaluate environmental risk from air emissions, offshore oil spills and drilling discharges, discharges from onshore facilities to sea and discharges and spills from onshore installations. In order to identify the remaining hypothetical risk from a new facility, optimized with respect to environmental protection, this paper presented a case study, where the tool was applied to an oil sands steam assisted gravity drainage facility in Alberta. The paper discussed the EIF model and results of the case study. It was concluded that as a result of the use of generic principles for environmental risk assessment, combined with databases with parameter information for common soil and aquifer types, the EIF tool could be applied to any site ranging from wetlands to deserts. 5 refs., 2 tabs., 3 figs.

  5. Understanding the Impact of Childhood Sexual Abuse on Men’s Risk Behavior: Protocol for a Mixed-Methods Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-01-01

    Background Childhood sexual abuse (CSA) remains a critical public health issue among black and Latino men who have sex with men (MSM), as it is associated with multiple negative outcomes including substance misuse, poor mental health, revictimization, and high-risk sexual behavior. Most CSA research with MSM relies on quantitative assessment that often precludes consideration of cultural variations in how formative sexual experiences are understood and is based on inconsistent or overly restrictive definitions of abuse, and therefore may fail to detect certain abusive experiences (eg, those involving female perpetrators), which can have harmful health consequences if they remain unrecognized. Objective The objective of this study is to overcome existing limitations in the literature by drawing on perspectives of black and Latino MSM and men who have sex with men and women (MSMW), as well as relevant service providers to better understand the role of, and the need to include, sexual abuse histories (eg, CSA) in treatment and counseling settings, with the long-term goal of improving assessment and health outcomes. Methods We will conduct mixed-methods interviews, framed by an intersectionality approach, with 80 black and Latino men (40 MSM and 40 MSMW) in New York City (NYC), exploring appraisals of their formative sexual experiences, including those described as consensual but meeting criteria for CSA. We will also interview 30 local service providers representing substance abuse treatment, mental health care, and HIV prevention and outreach. Results The study was launched in May 2017. Conclusions This formative research will inform testable approaches to assessing and incorporating sexual abuse history into substance abuse treatment and other health and mental health services used by men with such histories. PMID:29483063

  6. A quantitative assessment of risks of heavy metal residues in laundered shop towels and their use by workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connor, Kevin; Magee, Brian

    2014-10-01

    This paper presents a risk assessment of exposure to metal residues in laundered shop towels by workers. The concentrations of 27 metals measured in a synthetic sweat leachate were used to estimate the releasable quantity of metals which could be transferred to workers' skin. Worker exposure was evaluated quantitatively with an exposure model that focused on towel-to-hand transfer and subsequent hand-to-food or -mouth transfers. The exposure model was based on conservative, but reasonable assumptions regarding towel use and default exposure factor values from the published literature or regulatory guidance. Transfer coefficients were derived from studies representative of the exposures to towel users. Contact frequencies were based on assumed high-end use of shop towels, but constrained by a theoretical maximum dermal loading. The risk estimates for workers developed for all metals were below applicable regulatory risk benchmarks. The risk assessment for lead utilized the Adult Lead Model and concluded that predicted lead intakes do not constitute a significant health hazard based on potential worker exposures. Uncertainties are discussed in relation to the overall confidence in the exposure estimates developed for each exposure pathway and the likelihood that the exposure model is under- or overestimating worker exposures and risk. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Skin sensitisation quantitative risk assessment (QRA) based on aggregate dermal exposure to methylisothiazolinone in personal care and household cleaning products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezendam, J; Bokkers, B G H; Bil, W; Delmaar, J E

    2018-02-01

    Contact allergy to preservatives is an important public health problem. Ideally, new substances should be evaluated for the risk on skin sensitisation before market entry, for example by using a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) as developed for fragrances. As a proof-of-concept, this QRA was applied to the preservative methylisothiazolinone (MI), a common cause of contact allergy. MI is used in different consumer products, including personal care products (PCPs) and household cleaning products (HCPs). Aggregate exposure to MI in PCPs and HCPs was therefore assessed with the Probabilistic Aggregated Consumer Exposure Model (PACEM). Two exposure scenarios were evaluated: scenario 1 calculated aggregate exposure on actual MI product concentrations before the restricted use in PCPs and scenario 2 calculated aggregate exposure using the restrictions for MI in PCPs. The QRA for MI showed that in scenarios 1 and 2, the proportion of the population at risk for skin sensitisation is 0.7% and 0.5%, respectively. The restricted use of MI in PCPs does not seem very effective in lowering the risk on skin sensitization. To conclude, it is important to consider aggregate exposure from the most important consumer products into consideration in the risk assessment. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Quantitative microbial risk assessment of Cryptosporidium and Giardia in well water from a native community of Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balderrama-Carmona, Ana Paola; Gortáres-Moroyoqui, Pablo; Álvarez-Valencia, Luis Humberto; Castro-Espinoza, Luciano; Balderas-Cortés, José de Jesús; Mondaca-Fernández, Iram; Chaidez-Quiroz, Cristóbal; Meza-Montenegro, María Mercedes

    2015-01-01

    Cryptosporidium and Giardia are gastrointestinal disease-causing organisms transmitted by the fecal-oral route, zoonotic and prevalent in all socioeconomic segments with greater emphasis in rural communities. The goal of this study was to assess the risk of cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis of Potam dwellers consuming drinking water from communal well water. To achieve the goal, quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) was carried out as follows: (a) identification of Cryptosporidium oocysts and Giardia cysts in well water samples by information collection rule method, (b) assessment of exposure to healthy Potam residents, (c) dose-response modelling, and (d) risk characterization using an exponential model. All well water samples tested were positive for Cryptosporidium and Giardia. The QMRA results indicate a mean of annual risks of 99:100 (0.99) for cryptosporidiosis and 1:1 (1.0) for giardiasis. The outcome of the present study may drive decision-makers to establish an educational and treatment program to reduce the incidence of parasite-borne intestinal infection in the Potam community, and to conduct risk analysis programs in other similar rural communities in Mexico.

  9. Quantitative Structure activity relationship and risk analysis of some pesticides in the cattle milk

    OpenAIRE

    Faqir Muhammad*, Ijaz Javed, Masood Akhtar1, Zia-ur-Rahman, Mian Muhammad Awais1, Muhammad Kashif Saleemi2 and Muhammad Irfan Anwar3

    2012-01-01

    Milk of cattle was collected from various localities of Faisalabad, Pakistan. Pesticides concentration was determined by HPLC using solid phase microextraction. The residue analysis revealed that about 40% milk samples were contaminated with pesticides. The mean±SE levels (ppm) of cyhalothrin, endosulfan, chlorpyrifos and cypermethrin were 0.38±0.02, 0.26±0.02, 0.072±0.01 and 0.085±0.02, respectively. Quantitative structure activity relationship (QSAR) models were used to predict the residues...

  10. Risk Factors for Chronic Subdural Hematoma Recurrence Identified Using Quantitative Computed Tomography Analysis of Hematoma Volume and Density.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stavrinou, Pantelis; Katsigiannis, Sotirios; Lee, Jong Hun; Hamisch, Christina; Krischek, Boris; Mpotsaris, Anastasios; Timmer, Marco; Goldbrunner, Roland

    2017-03-01

    Chronic subdural hematoma (CSDH), a common condition in elderly patients, presents a therapeutic challenge with recurrence rates of 33%. We aimed to identify specific prognostic factors for recurrence using quantitative analysis of hematoma volume and density. We retrospectively reviewed radiographic and clinical data of 227 CSDHs in 195 consecutive patients who underwent evacuation of the hematoma through a single burr hole, 2 burr holes, or a mini-craniotomy. To examine the relationship between hematoma recurrence and various clinical, radiologic, and surgical factors, we used quantitative image-based analysis to measure the hematoma and trapped air volumes and the hematoma densities. Recurrence of CSDH occurred in 35 patients (17.9%). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that the percentage of hematoma drained and postoperative CSDH density were independent risk factors for recurrence. All 3 evacuation methods were equally effective in draining the hematoma (71.7% vs. 73.7% vs. 71.9%) without observable differences in postoperative air volume captured in the subdural space. Quantitative image analysis provided evidence that percentage of hematoma drained and postoperative CSDH density are independent prognostic factors for subdural hematoma recurrence. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Quantitative and qualitative analysis of the expert and non-expert opinion in fire risk in buildings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanea, D.M.; Jagtman, H.M.; Alphen, L.L.M.M. van; Ale, B.J.M.

    2010-01-01

    Expert judgment procedure is a method very often used in the area of risk assessments of complex systems or processes to fill in quantitative data. Although it has been proved to be a very reliable source of information when no other data are available, the choice of experts is always questioned. When the available data are limited, the seed questions cover only partially the domains of expertise, which may cause problems. Expertise is assessed not covering the full object of study but only those topics for which seed questions can be formulated. The commonly used quantitative analysis of an expert judgment exercise is combined with a qualitative analysis. The latter adds more insights to the relation between the assessor's field and statistical knowledge and their performance in an expert judgment. In addition the qualitative analysis identifies different types of seed questions. Three groups of assessors with different levels of statistical and domain knowledge are studied. The quantitative analysis shows no differences between field experts and non-experts and no differences between having advanced statistical knowledge or not. The qualitative analysis supports these findings. In addition it is found that especially technical questions are answered with larger intervals. Precaution is required when using seed questions for which the real value can be calculated, which was the case for one of the seed questions.

  12. Qualitative and Quantitative Analysis of Off-Shore Wind Energy Project’s Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sayed Amir Hamzeh Mirkheshti

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The benefits of wind power can solve the issue of growing power consumption with insufficient distribution facilities. Based on an extensive research on more than 20 studies, this study explores the risks associated with off-shore wind energy in Persian Gulf in Iran. This paper tries to identify the risks in related off-shore wind energy project, in order to specify which variables have the most impact on project by qualitative analysis through application of the impact and the possibility of every risk. A survey was conducted in order to determine the relative importance of variables and risks. Certain key components in completion of the project should be taken into account such as technology, research team, expert teams (personnel that have a good knowledge of this industry, and choosing the right spot where the wind farms will be located. The objective of this paper is to present the variables encountered in wind power project and to highlight the risks that must be controlled by the project developers, project team, supply chain actors, manufacturers, and all the stockholders involved in successful completion of a project.

  13. Quantitative Estimation of Risks for Production Unit Based on OSHMS and Process Resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyambayar, D.; Koshijima, I.; Eguchi, H.

    2017-06-01

    Three principal elements in the production field of chemical/petrochemical industry are (i) Production Units, (ii) Production Plant Personnel and (iii) Production Support System (computer system introduced for improving productivity). Each principal element has production process resilience, i.e. a capability to restrain disruptive signals occurred in and out of the production field. In each principal element, risk assessment is indispensable for the production field. In a production facility, the occupational safety and health management system (Hereafter, referred to as OSHMS) has been introduced to reduce a risk of accidents and troubles that may occur during production. In OSHMS, a risk assessment is specified to reduce a potential risk in the production facility such as a factory, and PDCA activities are required for a continual improvement of safety production environments. However, there is no clear statement to adopt the OSHMS standard into the production field. This study introduces a metric to estimate the resilience of the production field by using the resilience generated by the production plant personnel and the result of the risk assessment in the production field. A method for evaluating how OSHMS functions are systematically installed in the production field is also discussed based on the resilience of the three principal elements.

  14. A quantitative risk assessment of multiple factors influencing HIV/AIDS transmission through unprotected sex among HIV-seropositive men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerbi, Gemechu B; Habtemariam, Tsegaye; Tameru, Berhanu; Nganwa, David; Robnett, Vinaida

    2012-01-01

    The objective of this study is to conduct a quantitative risk assessment of multiple factors influencing HIV/AIDS transmission through unprotected sexual practices among HIV-seropositive men. A knowledgebase was developed by reviewing different published sources. The data were collected from different sources including Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, selected journals, and reports. The risk pathway scenario tree was developed based on a comprehensive review of published literature. The variables are organized into nine major parameter categories. Monte Carlo simulations for the quantitative risk assessment of HIV/AIDS transmission was executed with the software @Risk 4.0 (Palisade Corporation). Results show that the value for the likelihood of unprotected sex due to having less knowledge about HIV/AIDS and negative attitude toward condom use and safer sex ranged from 1.24 × 10(-5) to 8.47 × 10(-4) with the mean and standard deviation of 1.83 × 10(-4) and 8.63 × 10(-5), respectively. The likelihood of unprotected sex due to having greater anger-hostility, anxiety, less satisfied with aspects of life, and greater depressive symptoms ranged from 2.76 × 10(-9) to 5.34 × 10(-7) with the mean and standard deviation of 5.23 × 10(-8) and 3.58 × 10(-8), respectively. The findings suggest that HIV/AIDS research and intervention programs must be focused on behavior, and the broader setting within which individual risky behaviors occur.

  15. Evaluation of Basel III revision of quantitative standards for implementation of internal models for market risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meera Sharma

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies revisions under Basel III for market risk which allow conservative combination of short and long period Value-at-Risks (VaRs. This is the first study that examines this issue. The performance of the combination method is evaluated through regulatory back tests, unconditional and conditional coverage tests. The combination improves performance in regulatory back tests and tests of unconditional coverage. A common trend is the superior performance of long (1000/750 day in combination with short (190/125 days VaR methods. The combination does not enhance conditional coverage performance. This is the first study on this topic.

  16. Uncertainty in geohazard understanding and communicating hazards and risk between scientists and the UK Insurance industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawley, Russell; Lee, Kathryn; Lark, Murray

    2015-04-01

    At BGS, expert elicitation has been used to evaluate the relative impacts arising from multiple geohazards that can affect UK housing stock. In turn this 'consensus' understanding has been developed into a tool to assist the UK insurance industry underwrite the domestic property market. BGS models six geohazards deemed relevant to UK Housing: Landslides, Shrink-swell (heave), Compressibles, Dissolution (Karst), collapsibles and running sand. The models are widely used and have been developed over 2 decades of research. However, stakeholders such as the insurance industry are not well equipped to managed geohazard models directly and need the information to be categorised in a meaningful way, appropriate to their business models. Creating terminologies to communicate the relative threats for each geohazard has been relatively straightforward, but communicating the impacts of multiple geohazards, or comparing the relative risks of one geohazard against another has proved more difficult. Expert elicitation has been used since 2010 to try and build a consensus model for geohazards and to help BGS communicate its knowledge to stakeholders. Typically, the BGS geohazard models are provided with 5 levels of susceptibility: A (low or absent) ,B, C, D and E (high). Resolving individual models is relatively simple, but the insurance market is extremely dynamic and a need to simplify and convey the possible threats from all geohazards into a single 'rating' of susceptibility has emerged. This poses a problem when trying to convey the geological understanding behind the models. For example, how do you convey the combined (or comparative) susceptibility of a high susceptibility to Dissolution, with a moderate susceptibility to Landslides. This complexity is further hampered when needing to consider that stakeholders resolve spatial distributions via use of frameworks such as 'Postcode' sectors, and that the outputs of most geohazard models are sensitive to scope and scale of

  17. Assumptions in quantitative analyses of health risks of overhead power lines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Jong, A.; Wardekker, J.A.; van der Sluijs, J.P.

    2012-01-01

    One of the major issues hampering the formulation of uncontested policy decisions on contemporary risks is the presence of uncertainties in various stages of the policy cycle. In literature, different lines are suggested to address the problem of provisional and uncertain evidence. Reflective

  18. The Age-Specific Quantitative Effects of Metabolic Risk Factors on Cardiovascular Diseases and Diabetes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Singh, Gitanjali M; Danaei, Goodarz; Farzadfar, Farshad

    2013-01-01

    The effects of systolic blood pressure (SBP), serum total cholesterol (TC), fasting plasma glucose (FPG), and body mass index (BMI) on the risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) have been established in epidemiological studies, but consistent estimates of effect sizes by age and sex...

  19. Quantitative risk analysis of gas explosions in tunnels; probability, effects, and consequences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weerheijm, J.; Voort, M.M. van der; Verreault, J.; Berg, A.C. van den

    2015-01-01

    Tunnel accidents with transports of combustible liquefied gases may lead to explosions. Depending on the substance involved this can be a Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapour Explosion (BLEVE), a Gas Expansion Explosion (GEE) or a gas explosion. Quantification of the risk of these scenarios is important

  20. Quantitative risk management in gas injection project: a case study from Oman oil and gas industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khadem, Mohammad Miftaur Rahman Khan; Piya, Sujan; Shamsuzzoha, Ahm

    2017-09-01

    The purpose of this research was to study the recognition, application and quantification of the risks associated in managing projects. In this research, the management of risks in an oil and gas project is studied and implemented within a case company in Oman. In this study, at first, the qualitative data related to risks in the project were identified through field visits and extensive interviews. These data were then translated into numerical values based on the expert's opinion. Further, the numerical data were used as an input to Monte Carlo simulation. RiskyProject Professional™ software was used to simulate the system based on the identified risks. The simulation result predicted a delay of about 2 years as a worse case with no chance of meeting the project's on stream date. Also, it has predicted 8% chance of exceeding the total estimated budget. The result of numerical analysis from the proposed model is validated by comparing it with the result of qualitative analysis, which was obtained through discussion with various project managers of company.

  1. Quantitative Adverse Outcome Pathways and their Utility to Ecological Risk Assessments of Endangered Species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ecological risk assessments of endangered species are often hampered by a lack of knowledge about the sensitivity of endangered species to chemicals of concern. However, traditional in vivo toxicity testing of endangered species is often not possible for practical and ethical rea...

  2. A Quantitative Climate-Match Score for Risk-Assessment Screening of Reptile and Amphibian Introductions

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Wilgen, Nicola J.; Roura-Pascual, Núria; Richardson, David M.

    2009-09-01

    Assessing climatic suitability provides a good preliminary estimate of the invasive potential of a species to inform risk assessment. We examined two approaches for bioclimatic modeling for 67 reptile and amphibian species introduced to California and Florida. First, we modeled the worldwide distribution of the biomes found in the introduced range to highlight similar areas worldwide from which invaders might arise. Second, we modeled potentially suitable environments for species based on climatic factors in their native ranges, using three sources of distribution data. Performance of the three datasets and both approaches were compared for each species. Climate match was positively correlated with species establishment success (maximum predicted suitability in the introduced range was more strongly correlated with establishment success than mean suitability). Data assembled from the Global Amphibian Assessment through NatureServe provided the most accurate models for amphibians, while ecoregion data compiled by the World Wide Fund for Nature yielded models which described reptile climatic suitability better than available point-locality data. We present three methods of assigning a climate-match score for use in risk assessment using both the mean and maximum climatic suitabilities. Managers may choose to use different methods depending on the stringency of the assessment and the available data, facilitating higher resolution and accuracy for herpetofaunal risk assessment. Climate-matching has inherent limitations and other factors pertaining to ecological interactions and life-history traits must also be considered for thorough risk assessment.

  3. Relationship between Added Sugars Consumption and Chronic Disease Risk Factors: Current Understanding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rippe, James M; Angelopoulos, Theodore J

    2016-11-04

    Added sugars are a controversial and hotly debated topic. Consumption of added sugars has been implicated in increased risk of a variety of chronic diseases including obesity, cardiovascular disease, diabetes and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) as well as cognitive decline and even some cancers. Support for these putative associations has been challenged, however, on a variety of fronts. The purpose of the current review is to summarize high impact evidence including systematic reviews, meta-analyses, and randomized controlled trials (RCTs), in an attempt to provide an overview of current evidence related to added sugars and health considerations. This paper is an extension of a symposium held at the Experimental Biology 2015 conference entitled "Sweeteners and Health: Current Understandings, Controversies, Recent Research Findings and Directions for Future Research". We conclude based on high quality evidence from randomized controlled trials (RCT), systematic reviews and meta-analyses of cohort studies that singling out added sugars as unique culprits for metabolically based diseases such as obesity, diabetes and cardiovascular disease appears inconsistent with modern, high quality evidence and is very unlikely to yield health benefits. While it is prudent to consume added sugars in moderation, the reduction of these components of the diet without other reductions of caloric sources seems unlikely to achieve any meaningful benefit.

  4. Understanding self-appraisal of HIV-infection risk among young ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A major component of HIV prevention is to encourage individuals to appreciate their personal risk of contracting the virus with the aim of encouraging them to take steps to reduce the risks. This article addresses the accuracy of an individual's risk assessment by matching this with individual's reported risk behaviours in order ...

  5. Quantitative Risk Assessment of Patient Manual Handling in Wards of One of the Hospitals of Tehran using MAPO Method, Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sajad Ataei

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Background and Objectives: Manual handling of disabled patients is one of the important and effective factors in acute low back pain among exposed nurses. The present study was conducted with the objective of quantitative risk assessment of patient manual handling among nurses in wards of one of the hospitals in Tehran using MAPO method. Methods: The present study was conducted as an analytical-cross-sectional study in 26 wards of one of the hospitals in Tehran city. Samples were selected by census method from nurses and paramedics of different wards of hospital. Data collection was performed using demographic information and MAPO checklist. Results: The highest score of MAPO were, respectively, related to wards of DI clinic (score, 14.7, men orthopedic (score, 6.3, and general operating room (score, 57. 53.8% of hospital wards were at the level 2 corrective action, which indicated that the risk of musculoskeletal disorder is 2.4 times higher than level 1 corrective action. Conclusion: Given that the proportion of disabled patient in cooperation and/or partial cooperation, lifting tools, auxiliary, wheelchair, and training have the most role among risk factors for above-mentioned wards, increasing the number of human resources and wheelchair, use of lifting and auxiliary tools and training reduce MAPO score and consequently the risk of musculoskeletal disorders.

  6. Predictive value of quantitative dipyridamole-thallium scintigraphy in assessing cardiovascular risk after vascular surgery in diabetes mellitus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lane, S.E.; Lewis, S.M.; Pippin, J.J.; Kosinski, E.J.; Campbell, D.; Nesto, R.W.; Hill, T.

    1989-01-01

    Cardiac complications represent a major risk to patients undergoing vascular surgery. Diabetic patients may be particularly prone to such complications due to the high incidence of concomitant coronary artery disease, the severity of which may be clinically unrecognized. Attempts to stratify groups by clinical criteria have been useful but lack the predictive value of currently used noninvasive techniques such as dipyridamole-thallium scintigraphy. One hundred one diabetic patients were evaluated with dipyridamole-thallium scintigraphy before undergoing vascular surgery. The incidence of thallium abnormalities was high (80%) and did not correlate with clinical markers of coronary disease. Even in a subgroup of patients with no overt clinical evidence of underlying heart disease, thallium abnormalities were present in 59%. Cardiovascular complications, however, occurred in only 11% of all patients. Statistically significant prediction of risk was not achieved with simple assessment of thallium results as normal or abnormal. Quantification of total number of reversible defects, as well as assessment of ischemia in the distribution of the left anterior descending coronary artery was required for optimum predictive accuracy. The prevalence of dipyridamole-thallium abnormalities in a diabetic population is much higher than that reported in nondiabetic patients and cannot be predicted by usual clinical indicators of heart disease. In addition, cardiovascular risk of vascular surgery can be optimally assessed by quantitative analysis of dipyridamole-thallium scintigraphy and identification of high- and low-risk subgroups

  7. Quantitative analysis and health risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in edible vegetable oils marketed in Shandong of China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Dafeng; Xin, Chenglong; Li, Wei; Chen, Jindong; Li, Fenghua; Chu, Zunhua; Xiao, Peirui; Shao, Lijun

    2015-09-01

    This work studies on the quantitative analysis and health risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in edible vegetable oils in Shandong, China. The concentrations of 15 PAHs in 242 samples were determined by high performance liquid chromatography coupled with fluorescence detection. The results indicated that the mean concentration of 15 PAHs in oil samples was 54.37 μg kg(-1). Low molecular weight PAH compounds were the predominant contamination. Especially, the carcinogenic benzo(a)pyrene (BaP) was detected at a mean concentration of 1.28 μg kg(-1), which was lower than the limit of European Union and China. A preliminary evaluation of human health risk assessment for PAHs was accomplished using BaP toxic equivalency factors and the incremental lifetime cancer risk (ILCR). The ILCR values for children, adolescents, adults, and seniors were all larger than 1 × 10(-6), indicating a high potential carcinogenic risk on the dietary exposed populations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Widening the understanding of risk approaches by comparing definitions from different disciplines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berg-Beckhoff, Gabriele; Wiedemann, Peter; Adam, Balazs

    2017-01-01

    The aim of this chapter is to critically reflect definitions of hazard, risk, and risk per-ception, and their assessments used in different scientific disciplines and give ex-amples of the potential implications for scientific discussions, knowledge manage-ment, and risk communication. Scientists...... with backgrounds in public health, psy-chology, environmental health, occupational health, engineering, sociology and medicine were asked for a definition of hazard, risk, risk assessment and risk per-ception seen from their specific scientific disciplines. Hazard is generally seen as an adverse event or condition....... For most risk definitions, probability and severity are important aspects. Often a quantification of risk is desired, whereas risk perception is seen as a subjective appraisal and a cognitive construct. As risk perceptions are based on a combination of knowledge and individual values and affects, it may...

  9. Understanding Suicide Across the Lifespan: A United States Perspective of Suicide Risk Factors, Assessment & Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steele, Ian H; Thrower, Natasha; Noroian, Paul; Saleh, Fabian M

    2018-01-01

    Suicide is a troubling, preventable phenomenon. Prior to attempts, individuals often seek help, prompting practitioners to perform risk assessments that ideally use evidence-based risk management strategies. A literature review was performed using Harvard Countway Library of Medicine, Google Scholar, PubMed. Key words used were "Forensic Science," "Suicide Risk Management," "Pediatric Suicide Risk Factors," "Adult Suicide Risk Factors," "Geriatric Suicide Risk Factors," "Suicide Risk Assessment." Parameters limited articles to studies/reviews completed in the past twenty years in the United States. Results indicated predictors of suicide in juveniles were insomnia, burdensomeness, and recent conflicts with family or a romantic partner. Adults had greater risk if male, substance abusing, with marital/job loss. Elderly individuals with multiple medical comorbidities, hopelessness, and isolation were at higher risk. Everyone evaluated should be screened for access to firearms. Management of suicide risk involves providing the least restrictive form of treatment which maintains an individual's safety. © 2017 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  10. Screening techniques, sustainability and risk adjusted returns. : - A quantitative study on the Swedish equity funds market

    OpenAIRE

    Ögren, Tobias; Forslund, Petter

    2017-01-01

    Previous studies have primarily compared the performance of sustainable equity funds and non-sustainable equity funds. A meta-analysis over 85 different studies in the field concludes that there is no statistically significant difference in risk-adjusted returns when comparing sustainable funds and non-sustainable funds. This study is thus an extension on previous studies where the authors have chosen to test the two most common sustainability screening techniques to test if there is a differ...

  11. A suite of models to support the quantitative assessment of spread in pest risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinet, Christelle; Kehlenbeck, Hella; Kriticos, Darren J; Baker, Richard H A; Battisti, Andrea; Brunel, Sarah; Dupin, Maxime; Eyre, Dominic; Faccoli, Massimo; Ilieva, Zhenya; Kenis, Marc; Knight, Jon; Reynaud, Philippe; Yart, Annie; van der Werf, Wopke

    2012-01-01

    Pest Risk Analyses (PRAs) are conducted worldwide to decide whether and how exotic plant pests should be regulated to prevent invasion. There is an increasing demand for science-based risk mapping in PRA. Spread plays a key role in determining the potential distribution of pests, but there is no suitable spread modelling tool available for pest risk analysts. Existing models are species specific, biologically and technically complex, and data hungry. Here we present a set of four simple and generic spread models that can be parameterised with limited data. Simulations with these models generate maps of the potential expansion of an invasive species at continental scale. The models have one to three biological parameters. They differ in whether they treat spatial processes implicitly or explicitly, and in whether they consider pest density or pest presence/absence only. The four models represent four complementary perspectives on the process of invasion and, because they have different initial conditions, they can be considered as alternative scenarios. All models take into account habitat distribution and climate. We present an application of each of the four models to the western corn rootworm, Diabrotica virgifera virgifera, using historic data on its spread in Europe. Further tests as proof of concept were conducted with a broad range of taxa (insects, nematodes, plants, and plant pathogens). Pest risk analysts, the intended model users, found the model outputs to be generally credible and useful. The estimation of parameters from data requires insights into population dynamics theory, and this requires guidance. If used appropriately, these generic spread models provide a transparent and objective tool for evaluating the potential spread of pests in PRAs. Further work is needed to validate models, build familiarity in the user community and create a database of species parameters to help realize their potential in PRA practice.

  12. Hormone Replacement Therapy and Risk of Breast Cancer in Korean Women: A Quantitative Systematic Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jong-Myon Bae

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: The epidemiological characteristics of breast cancer incidence by age group in Korean women are unique. This systematic review aimed to investigate the association between hormone replacement therapy (HRT and breast cancer risk in Korean women. Methods: We searched electronic databases such as KoreaMed, KMbase, KISS, and RISS4U as well as PubMed for publications on Korean breast cancer patients. We also conducted manual searching based on references and citations in potential papers. All of the analytically epidemiologic studies that obtained individual data on HRT exposure and breast cancer occurrence in Korean women were selected. We restricted the inclusion of case-control studies to those that included age-matched controls. Estimates of summary odds ratio (SOR with 95% confidence intervals (CIs were calculated using random effect models. Results: One cohort and five case-control studies were finally selected. Based on the heterogeneity that existed among the six studies (I-squared=70.2%, a random effect model was applied. The summary effect size of HRT history from the six articles indicated no statistical significance in breast cancer risk (SOR, 0.983; 95% CI, 0.620 to 1.556. Conclusions: These facts support no significant effect of HRT history in the risk of breast cancer in Korean women. It is necessary to conduct a pooled analysis.

  13. Which risk understandings can be derived from the current disharmonized regulation of complementary and alternative medicine in Europe?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiesener, Solveig; Salamonsen, Anita; Fønnebø, Vinjar

    2018-01-10

    Many European citizens are seeking complementary and alternative medicine (CAM). These treatments are regulated very differently in the EU/EFTA countries. This may demonstrate differences in how risk associated with the use of CAM is perceived. Since most CAM treatments are practiced fairly similarly across Europe, differing risk understandings may influence patient safety for European CAM users. The overall aim of this article is thus to contribute to an overview and awareness of possible differing risk understandings in the field of CAM at a policymaking/structural level in Europe. The study is a re-analysis of data collected in the CAMbrella EU FP7 document and interview study on the regulation of CAM in 39 European countries. The 12 CAM modalities included in the CAMbrella study were ranked with regard to assumed risk potential depending on the number of countries limiting its practice to regulated professions. The 39 countries were ranked according to how many of the included CAM modalities they limit to be practiced by regulated professions. Twelve of 39 countries generally understand the included CAM treatments to represent "high risk", 20 countries "low risk", while the remaining 7 countries understand CAM treatments as carrying "very little or no risk". The CAM modalities seen as carrying a risk high enough to warrant professional regulation in the highest number of countries are chiropractic, acupuncture, massage, homeopathy and osteopathy. The countries understanding most of the CAM modalities in the study as potentially high-risk treatments are with two exceptions (Portugal and Belgium) all concentrated in the southeastern region of Europe. The variation in regulation of CAM may represent a substantial lack of common risk understandings between health policymakers in Europe. We think the discrepancies in regulation are to a considerable degree also based on factors unrelated to patient risk. We argue that it is important for patient safety that policy

  14. Application of Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment to analyze the public health risk from poor drinking water quality in a low income area in Accra, Ghana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machdar, E; van der Steen, N P; Raschid-Sally, L; Lens, P N L

    2013-04-01

    In Accra, Ghana, a majority of inhabitants lives in over-crowded areas with limited access to piped water supply, which is often also intermittent. This study assessed in a densely populated area the risk from microbial contamination of various sources of drinking water, by conducting a Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) to estimate the risk to human health from microorganism exposure and dose-response relationships. Furthermore the cost-effectiveness in reducing the disease burden through targeted interventions was evaluated. Five risk pathways for drinking water were identified through a survey (110 families), namely household storage, private yard taps, communal taps, communal wells and water sachets. Samples from each source were analyzed for Escherichia coli and Ascaris contamination. Published ratios between E. coli and other pathogens were used for the QMRA and disease burden calculations. The major part of the burden of disease originated from E. coli O157:H7 (78%) and the least important contributor was Cryptosporidium (0.01%). Other pathogens contributed 16% (Campylobacter), 5% (Rotavirus) and 0.3% (Ascaris). The sum of the disease burden of these pathogens was 0.5 DALYs per person per year, which is much higher than the WHO reference level. The major contamination pathway was found to be household storage. Disinfection of water at household level was the most cost-effective intervention (Water supply network improvements were significantly less cost-effective. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Quantitative muscle hardness as a noninvasive means for detecting patients at risk of compartment syndromes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steinberg, Bruce; Riel, Ryan; Armitage, Marshal; Berrey, Hudson

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this project was to study the efficacy of quantitative muscle hardness (QH) curve analysis for noninvasive measurement of muscle compartment interstitial pressure (IMP), and to eliminate the need for a comparison normal QH measurement to determine a pathologic reading. Elevation of IMP may lead to limb compartment syndrome, which may result in irreversible dysfunction, chronic pain and contracture. Two studies were performed by two separate independent examiners on male volunteers, where IMP measurements and QH curves were obtained. QH curves were divided into three parts comparing the third part to the second part using the coefficient of determination (R 2 ). In 205 limb compartments, there were 1432 comparison readings of the IMP versus R 2 . Using receiver operator characteristic curve analysis for all data from both studies, an R 2 cutoff of 0.974 best corresponded to a pathologic IMP of 50 mmHg. For both sets of data and for each compartment tested, the mean IMP values were statistically different (t-test: P < 0.0001) for the group with R 2 values less than 0.974 compared to the group of R 2 values greater than or equal to 0.974. In addition, a pressure prediction model was formulated with a strong overall correlation coefficient of 0.78. The data of this study support that QH analysis is potentially useful for the monitoring of IMP elevation in compartment syndrome

  16. Currency risk and prices of oil and petroleum products: a simulation with a quantitative model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aniasi, L.; Ottavi, D.; Rubino, E.; Saracino, A.

    1992-01-01

    This paper analyzes the relationship between the exchange rates of the US Dollar against the four major European currencies and the prices of oil and its main products in those countries. In fact, the sensitivity of the prices to the exchange rate movements is of fundamental importance for the refining and distribution industries of importing countries. The result of the analysis shows that in neither free market conditions, as those present in Great Britain, France and Germany, nor in regulated markets, i.e. the italian one, do the variations of petroleum product prices fully absorb the variation of the exchange rates. In order to assess the above relationship, we first tested the order of co-integration of the time series of exchange rates of EMS currencies with those of international prices of oil and its derivative products; then we used a transfer-function model to reproduce the quantitative relationships between those variables. Using these results, we then reproduced domestic price functions with partial adjustment mechanisms. Finally, we used the above model to run a simulation of the deviation from the steady-state pattern caused by exchange-rate exogenous shocks. 21 refs., 5 figs., 3 tabs

  17. Quantitative risk assessment via uncertainty analysis in combination with error propagation for the determination of the dynamic Design Space of the primary drying step during freeze-drying

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Van Bockstal, Pieter Jan; Mortier, Séverine Thérèse F.C.; Corver, Jos

    2017-01-01

    of a freeze-drying process, allowing to quantitatively estimate and control the risk of cake collapse (i.e., the Risk of Failure (RoF)). The propagation of the error on the estimation of the thickness of the dried layer Ldried as function of primary drying time was included in the uncertainty analysis...

  18. Human-Associated Fecal Quantitative Polymerase Chain ReactionMeasurements and Simulated Risk of Gastrointestinal Illness in Recreational Waters Contaminated with Raw Sewage

    Science.gov (United States)

    We used quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) to estimate the risk of gastrointestinal (GI) illness associated with swimming in recreational waters containing different concentrations of human-associated fecal qPCR markers from raw sewage– HF183 and HumM2. The volume/volu...

  19. Understanding producers’ motives to adopt sustainable practices: the role of expected rewards, risk perception, and risk tolerance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hofenk, D.J.B.; Pennings, J.M.E.; Trujillo Barrera, A.A.

    2014-01-01

    Abstract The purpose of this study is to examine producers’ motives underlying the adoption of sustainable practices. In particular, we focus on expected economic, social, and personal rewards, and examine the roles of producers’ risk perception and risk tolerance. Preliminary results from a survey

  20. Understanding Producers’ Motives for Adopting Sustainable Practices: The Role of Expected Rewards, Risk Perception, and Risk Tolerance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hofenk, D.J.B.; Pennings, J.M.E.; Trujillo Barrera, A.A.

    2014-01-01

    This paper examines producers’ motives underlying the adoption of sustainable practices. In particular, we focus on expected economic, social, and personal rewards, and examine the role of producers’ risk perception and risk tolerance. Results from personal computer-guided interviews with164 hog

  1. Caramel color in soft drinks and exposure to 4-methylimidazole: a quantitative risk assessment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tyler J S Smith

    Full Text Available Caramel color is added to many widely-consumed beverages as a colorant. Consumers of these beverages can be exposed to 4-methylimidazole (4-MEI, a potential carcinogen formed during its manufacture. California's Proposition 65 law requires that beverages containing 4-MEI concentrations corresponding to exposures that pose excess cancer risks > 1 case per 100,000 exposed persons (29 μg 4-MEI/day carry warning labels. Using ultrahigh-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry, we assessed 4-MEI concentrations in 12 beverages purchased in California and a geographically distant metropolitan area (New York in which warning labels are not required. In addition, we characterized beverage consumption by age and race/ethnicity (using weighted means calculated from logistic regressions and assessed 4-MEI exposure and resulting cancer risks and US population cancer burdens attributable to beverage consumption. Data on beverage consumption were obtained from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, dose-response data for 4-MEI were obtained from the California Environmental Protection Agency Office of Environmental Health Hazards Assessment, and data on population characteristics were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau. Of the 12 beverages, Malta Goya had the highest 4-MEI concentration (915.8 to 963.3μg/L, lifetime average daily dose (LADD - 8.04x10-3 mg/kgBW-day, lifetime excess cancer risk (1.93x10-4 and burden (5,011 cancer cases in the U.S. population over 70 years; Coca-Cola had the lowest value of each (4-MEI: 9.5 to 11.7μg/L; LADD: 1.01x10-4 mg/kgBW-day; risk: 1.92x10-6; and burden: 76 cases. 4-MEI concentrations varied considerably by soda and state/area of purchase, but were generally consistent across lots of the same beverage purchased in the same state/area. Routine consumption of certain beverages can result in 4-MEI exposures > 29 μg/day. State regulatory standards appear to have been effective in reducing

  2. Quantitative assessment of the risk of introduction of bovine viral diarrhea virus in Danish dairy herds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Foddai, Alessandro; Boklund, Anette; Stockmarr, Anders

    2014-01-01

    trees were made to evaluate the importance of the various BVDV introductionroutes. With the current surveillance system, the risk of BVDV introduction was estimatedto one or more introductions within a median of nine years (3–59). However, if all importedanimals were tested and hoof trimmers always...... disinfected the tools used abroad, the riskcould be reduced to one or more introductions within 33 years (8–200). Results of thisstudy can be used to improve measures of BVD surveillance and prophylaxis in Danishdairy herds....

  3. A quantitative screening-level approach to incorporate chemical exposure and risk into alternative assessment evaluations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, Scott M; Greggs, Bill; Goyak, Katy O; Landenberger, Bryce D; Mason, Ann M; Howard, Brett; Zaleski, Rosemary T

    2017-11-01

    As the general public and retailers ask for disclosure of chemical ingredients in the marketplace, a number of hazard screening tools were developed to evaluate the so-called "greenness" of individual chemical ingredients and/or formulations. The majority of these tools focus only on hazard, often using chemical lists, ignoring the other part of the risk equation: exposure. Using a hazard-only focus can result in regrettable substitutions, changing 1 chemical ingredient for another that turns out to be more hazardous or shifts the toxicity burden to others. To minimize the incidents of regrettable substitutions, BizNGO describes "Common Principles" to frame a process for informed substitution. Two of these 6 principles are: "reduce hazard" and "minimize exposure." A number of frameworks have emerged to evaluate and assess alternatives. One framework developed by leading experts under the auspices of the US National Academy of Sciences recommended that hazard and exposure be specifically addressed in the same step when assessing candidate alternatives. For the alternative assessment community, this article serves as an informational resource for considering exposure in an alternatives assessment using elements of problem formulation; product identity, use, and composition; hazard analysis; exposure analysis; and risk characterization. These conceptual elements build on practices from government, academia, and industry and are exemplified through 2 hypothetical case studies demonstrating the questions asked and decisions faced in new product development. These 2 case studies-inhalation exposure to a generic paint product and environmental exposure to a shampoo rinsed down the drain-demonstrate the criteria, considerations, and methods required to combine exposure models addressing human health and environmental impacts to provide a screening level hazard and exposure (risk) analysis. This article informs practices for these elements within a comparative risk context

  4. Caramel color in soft drinks and exposure to 4-methylimidazole: a quantitative risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Tyler J S; Wolfson, Julia A; Jiao, Ding; Crupain, Michael J; Rangan, Urvashi; Sapkota, Amir; Bleich, Sara N; Nachman, Keeve E

    2015-01-01

    Caramel color is added to many widely-consumed beverages as a colorant. Consumers of these beverages can be exposed to 4-methylimidazole (4-MEI), a potential carcinogen formed during its manufacture. California's Proposition 65 law requires that beverages containing 4-MEI concentrations corresponding to exposures that pose excess cancer risks > 1 case per 100,000 exposed persons (29 μg 4-MEI/day) carry warning labels. Using ultrahigh-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry, we assessed 4-MEI concentrations in 12 beverages purchased in California and a geographically distant metropolitan area (New York) in which warning labels are not required. In addition, we characterized beverage consumption by age and race/ethnicity (using weighted means calculated from logistic regressions) and assessed 4-MEI exposure and resulting cancer risks and US population cancer burdens attributable to beverage consumption. Data on beverage consumption were obtained from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, dose-response data for 4-MEI were obtained from the California Environmental Protection Agency Office of Environmental Health Hazards Assessment, and data on population characteristics were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau. Of the 12 beverages, Malta Goya had the highest 4-MEI concentration (915.8 to 963.3μg/L), lifetime average daily dose (LADD - 8.04x10-3 mg/kgBW-day), lifetime excess cancer risk (1.93x10-4) and burden (5,011 cancer cases in the U.S. population over 70 years); Coca-Cola had the lowest value of each (4-MEI: 9.5 to 11.7μg/L; LADD: 1.01x10-4 mg/kgBW-day; risk: 1.92x10-6; and burden: 76 cases). 4-MEI concentrations varied considerably by soda and state/area of purchase, but were generally consistent across lots of the same beverage purchased in the same state/area. Routine consumption of certain beverages can result in 4-MEI exposures > 29 μg/day. State regulatory standards appear to have been effective in reducing exposure to

  5. Caramel Color in Soft Drinks and Exposure to 4-Methylimidazole: A Quantitative Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Tyler J. S.; Wolfson, Julia A.; Jiao, Ding; Crupain, Michael J.; Rangan, Urvashi; Sapkota, Amir; Bleich, Sara N.; Nachman, Keeve E.

    2015-01-01

    Caramel color is added to many widely-consumed beverages as a colorant. Consumers of these beverages can be exposed to 4-methylimidazole (4-MEI), a potential carcinogen formed during its manufacture. California’s Proposition 65 law requires that beverages containing 4-MEI concentrations corresponding to exposures that pose excess cancer risks > 1 case per 100,000 exposed persons (29 μg 4-MEI/day) carry warning labels. Using ultrahigh-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry, we assessed 4-MEI concentrations in 12 beverages purchased in California and a geographically distant metropolitan area (New York) in which warning labels are not required. In addition, we characterized beverage consumption by age and race/ethnicity (using weighted means calculated from logistic regressions) and assessed 4-MEI exposure and resulting cancer risks and US population cancer burdens attributable to beverage consumption. Data on beverage consumption were obtained from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, dose-response data for 4-MEI were obtained from the California Environmental Protection Agency Office of Environmental Health Hazards Assessment, and data on population characteristics were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau. Of the 12 beverages, Malta Goya had the highest 4-MEI concentration (915.8 to 963.3μg/L), lifetime average daily dose (LADD - 8.04x10-3 mg/kgBW-day), lifetime excess cancer risk (1.93x10-4) and burden (5,011 cancer cases in the U.S. population over 70 years); Coca-Cola had the lowest value of each (4-MEI: 9.5 to 11.7μg/L; LADD: 1.01x10-4 mg/kgBW-day; risk: 1.92x10-6; and burden: 76 cases). 4-MEI concentrations varied considerably by soda and state/area of purchase, but were generally consistent across lots of the same beverage purchased in the same state/area. Routine consumption of certain beverages can result in 4-MEI exposures > 29 μg/day. State regulatory standards appear to have been effective in reducing exposure

  6. Understanding farmers' safety behaviour towards pesticide exposure and other occupational risks: The case of Zanjan, Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rezaei, Rohollah; Damalas, Christos A; Abdollahzadeh, Gholamhossein

    2018-03-01

    Preventive interventions for reducing occupational risks and health problems among farmers require the identification of factors contributing to unsafe behaviour, but research on this topic is rather limited. A theoretical model for studying factors affecting farmers' use of occupational safety and health (OSH) practices in Iran was developed. The model was empirically tested using data collected from a survey of 301 tomato farmers of Zanjan Province of Iran. The examined OSH practices encompassed a wide range of behaviours, grouped in four categories, i.e., use of pesticides, use of machinery, use of personal protective equipment (PPE), and applying ergonomic principles (i.e., fitting the task to the individual, designing the workplace based on human factors, taking into account the interaction between the workplace and the workers, exercising during work or rest). Almost half of the farmers (49.5%) showed unsafe behaviour in the use of PPE. Moreover, significant proportions of the farmers showed potentially unsafe behaviour in the use of pesticides (42.2%), in applying ergonomic principles (40.2%) and in the use of machinery (35.9%). Attitude towards OSH practices, knowledge on OSH practices, and self-efficacy in safety had a direct positive effect on farmers' use of OSH practices, explaining 73% of the variance in farmers' safety behaviour. Overall, findings contribute to a better understanding of the use of OSH practices among farmers, providing empirical evidence in the cognitive processing of farmers' with respect to safety behaviour in farming and offering practical information that can be incorporated into OSH intervention programs in Iran and other developing countries. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Farm to Fork Quantitative Risk Assessment of Listeria monocytogenes Contamination in Raw and Pasteurized Milk Cheese in Ireland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tiwari, Uma; Cummins, Enda; Valero, Antonio; Walsh, Des; Dalmasso, Marion; Jordan, Kieran; Duffy, Geraldine

    2015-06-01

    The objective of this study was to model and quantify the level of Listeria monocytogenes in raw milk cheese (RMc) and pasteurized milk cheese (PMc) from farm to fork using a Bayesian inference approach combined with a quantitative risk assessment. The modeling approach included a prediction of contamination arising from the farm environment as well from cross-contamination within the cheese-processing facility through storage and subsequent human exposure. The model predicted a high concentration of L. monocytogenes in contaminated RMc (mean 2.19 log10 CFU/g) compared to PMc (mean -1.73 log10 CFU/g). The mean probability of illness (P1 for low-risk population, LR) and (P2 for high-risk population, HR, e.g., immunocompromised) adult Irish consumers following exposure to contaminated cheese was 7 × 10(-8) (P1 ) and 9 × 10(-4) (P2 ) for RMc and 7 × 10(-10) (P1 ) and 8 × 10(-6) (P2 ) for PMc, respectively. In addition, the model was used to evaluate performance objectives at various stages, namely, the cheese making and ripening stages, and to set a food safety objective at the time of consumption. A scenario analysis predicted various probabilities of L. monocytogenes contamination along the cheese-processing chain for both RMc and PMc. The sensitivity analysis showed the critical factors for both cheeses were the serving size of the cheese, storage time, and temperature at the distribution stage. The developed model will allow food processors and policymakers to identify the possible routes of contamination along the cheese-processing chain and to reduce the risk posed to human health. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  8. Quantitative risk assessment of E. coli in street-vended cassava-based delicacies in the Philippines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mesias, I. C. P.

    2018-01-01

    In the Philippines, rootcrop-based food products are gaining popularity in street food trade. However, a number of street-vended food products in the country are reported to be contaminated with E. coli posing possible risk among consumers. In this study, information on quantitative risk assessment of E. coli in street-vended cassava-based delicacies was generated. The assessment started with the prevalence and concentration of E. coli at post production in packages of the cassava-based delicacies. Combase growth predictor was used to trace the microbial population of E. coli in each step of the food chain. The @Risk software package, version 6 (Palisade USA) was used to run the simulations. Scenarios in the post-production to consumption pathway were simulated. The effect was then assessed in relation to exposure to the defined infective dose. In the worst case scenario, a minimum and most likely concentration of 6.3 and 7.8 log CFU of E. coli per serving respectively were observed. The simulation revealed that lowering the temperature in the chain considerably decreased the E. coli concentration prior to consumption and subsequently decreased the percentage of exposure to the infective dose. Exposure to infective dose however was increased with longer lag time from postproduction to consumption.

  9. The effect of different cardiovascular risk presentation formats on intentions, understanding and emotional affect: a randomised controlled trial using a web-based risk formatter (protocol

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Newcombe Robert

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The future risk of heart disease can be predicted with increasing precision. However, more research is needed into how this risk is conveyed and presented. The aim of this study is to compare the effects of presenting cardiovascular risk in different formats on individuals' intention to change behaviour to reduce risk, understanding of risk information and emotional affect. Methods/design A randomised controlled trial comprising four arms, with a between subjects design will be performed. There will be two intervention groups and two control groups. The first control comprises a pre-intervention questionnaire and presents risk in a bar graph format. The second control presents risk in a bar graph format without pre-intervention questionnaire. These two control groups are to account for the potential Hawthorne effect of thinking about cardiovascular risk before viewing actual risk. The two intervention groups comprise presenting risk in either a pictogram or metonym format (image depicting seriousness of having a myocardial infarction. 800 individuals' aged between 45 and 64 years, who have not been previously diagnosed with heart disease and have access to a computer with internet, will be given a link to a website comprising a risk calculator and electronic questionnaires. 10-year risk of having a coronary heart disease event will be assessed and presented in one of the three formats. A post-intervention questionnaire will be completed after viewing the risk format. Main outcome measures are (i intention to change behaviour, (ii understanding of risk information, (iii emotional affect and (iv worry about future heart disease. Secondary outcomes are the sub-components of the theory of planned behaviour: attitudes, perceived behavioural control and subjective norms. Discussion Having reviewed the literature, we are not aware of any other studies which have used the assessment of actual risk, in a trial to compare different

  10. A Statistical-Probabilistic Pattern for Determination of Tunnel Advance Step by Quantitative Risk Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    sasan ghorbani

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available One of the main challenges faced in design and construction phases of tunneling projects is the determination of maximum allowable advance step to maximize excavation rate and reduce project delivery time. Considering the complexity of determining this factor and unexpected risks associated with inappropriate determination of that, it is necessary to employ a method which is capable of accounting for interactions among uncertain geotechnical parameters and advance step. The main objective in the present research is to undertake optimization and risk management of advance step length in water diversion tunnel at Shahriar Dam based on uncertainty of geotechnical parameters following a statistic-probabilistic approach. In the present research, in order to determine optimum advance step for excavation operation, two hybrid methods were used: strength reduction method-discrete element method- Monte Carlo simulation (SRM/DEM/MCS and strength reduction method- discrete element method- point estimate method (SRM/DEM/PEM. Moreover, Taguchi analysis was used to investigate the sensitivity of advance step to changes in statistical distribution function of input parameters under three tunneling scenarios at sections of poor to good qualities (as per RMR classification system. Final results implied the optimality of the advance step defined in scenario 2 where 2 m advance per excavation round was proposed, according to shear strain criterion and SRM/DEM/MCS, with minimum failure probability and risk of 8.05% and 75281.56 $, respectively, at 95% confidence level. Moreover, in either of normal, lognormal, and gamma distributions, as the advance step increased from Scenario 1 to 2, failure probability was observed to increase at lower rate than that observed when advance step in scenario 2 was increased to that In Scenario 3. In addition, Taguchi tests were subjected to signal-to-noise analysis and the results indicated that, considering the three statistical

  11. Understanding the Cognitive and Affective Mechanisms that Underlie Proxy Risk Perceptions among Caregivers of Asthmatic Children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepperd, James A; Lipsey, Nikolette P; Pachur, Thorsten; Waters, Erika A

    2018-07-01

    Medical decisions made on behalf of another person-particularly those made by adult caregivers for their minor children-are often informed by the decision maker's beliefs about the treatment's risks and benefits. However, we know little about the cognitive and affective mechanisms influencing such "proxy" risk perceptions and about how proxy risk perceptions are related to prominent judgment phenomena. Adult caregivers of minor children with asthma ( N = 132) completed an online, cross-sectional survey assessing 1) cognitions and affects that form the basis of the availability, representativeness, and affect heuristics; 2) endorsement of the absent-exempt and the better-than-average effect; and 3) proxy perceived risk and unrealistic comparative optimism of an asthma exacerbation. We used the Pediatric Asthma Control and Communication Instrument (PACCI) to assess asthma severity. Respondents with higher scores on availability, representativeness, and negative affect indicated higher proxy risk perceptions and (for representativeness only) lower unrealistic optimism, irrespective of asthma severity. Conversely, respondents who showed a stronger display of the better-than-average effect indicated lower proxy risk perceptions but did not differ in unrealistic optimism. The absent-exempt effect was unrelated to proxy risk perceptions and unrealistic optimism. Heuristic judgment processes appear to contribute to caregivers' proxy risk perceptions of their child's asthma exacerbation risk. Moreover, the display of other, possibly erroneous, judgment phenomena is associated with lower caregiver risk perceptions. Designing interventions that target these mechanisms may help caregivers work with their children to reduce exacerbation risk.

  12. Understanding public perceptions of benefits and risks of childhood vaccinations in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Geoboo

    2014-03-01

    In the face of a growing public health concern accompanying the reemerging threat of preventable diseases, this research seeks mainly to explain variations in the perceived benefits and risks of vaccinations among the general public in the United States. As Mary Douglas and Aaron Wildavsky's grid-group cultural theory of risk perception claims, the analytical results based upon original data from a nationwide Internet survey of 1,213 American adults conducted in 2010 suggest that individuals' cultural predispositions contribute to the formation of their perceptions pertaining to vaccine benefits and risks at both societal and individual levels, in conjunction with other factors suggested by previous risk perception literature, such as perceived prevalence of diseases, trust, knowledge level, and demographic characteristics. Those with a strong hierarch orientation tend to envision greater benefits and lesser risks and conceive of a relatively high ratio of benefit to risk when compared to other cultural types. By contrast, those with a strong fatalist tendency are inclined to emphasize risks and downplay benefits while conceiving of a low vaccination benefit-risk ratio. Situated between hierarchs and fatalists, strong egalitarians are prone to perceive greater benefits, smaller risks, and a more positive benefit-risk ratio than strong individualists. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  13. Quantitative risk assessment of human campylobacteriosis associated with thermophilic Campylobacter species in chickens

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosenquist, Hanne; Nielsen, N. L.; Sommer, Helle Mølgaard

    2003-01-01

    covers the transfer of Campylobacter during food handling in private kitchens. The age and sex of consumers were included in this module to introduce variable hygiene levels during food preparation and variable sizes and compositions of meals. Finally, the outcome of the exposure assessment modules...... was integrated with a Beta-Poisson dose-response model to provide a risk estimate. Simulations designed to predict the effect of different mitigation strategies showed that the incidence of campylobacteriosis associated with consumption of chicken meals could be reduced 30 times by introducing a 2 log reduction...... of the number of Campylobacter on the chicken carcasses. To obtain a similar reduction of the incidence, the flock prevalence should be reduced approximately 30 times or the kitchen hygiene improved approximately 30 times. Cross-contamination from positive to negative flocks during slaughter had almost...

  14. Benefits of quantitative gated SPECT in evaluation of perioperative cardiac risk in noncardiac surgery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watanabe, Koji; Ohsumi, Yukio; Abe, Hirohiko; Hattori, Masahito; Minatoguchi, Shinya; Fujiwara, Hisayoshi

    2007-01-01

    Gated single-photon emission computed tomography (G-SPECT) was used to evaluate cardiac risk associated with noncardiac surgery and determine the benefits and indications of this technique for this type of surgery. Patients scheduled to undergo noncardiac surgery under the supervision of anesthesiologists and subjected to preoperative cardiac evaluation using G-SPECT during the 26-month period between June 2000 and August 2002 were followed for the presence/absence of cardiac events (id est (i.e.), cardiac death, myocardial infarction, unstable angina, congestive heart failure, or fatal arrhythmia) during surgery and the postoperative period until discharged. Relationships between the occurrence of cardiac events and preoperative G-SPECT findings were evaluated. A total of 39 patients underwent G-SPECT; 6 of the 39 exhibited abnormal ejection fraction (left ventricular ejection fraction, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF)≤50%) and end-systolic volume (end-systolic volume (ESV)≥50 ml). Surgery was suspended for three of these six patients and cardiac events developed in the remaining three patients. Both abnormal perfusion images (PI) and abnormal wall thickening (WT) were observed in all six patients. All six patients exhibited abnormal LVEF and/or ESV. Three patients had either abnormal PI or WT, and a cardiac event occurred in one of them. Of the five patients who experienced cardiac events during or after surgery, two exhibited a short run of ventricular tachycardia requiring a continuous administering of antiarrhythmic drugs, whereas the remaining three patients exhibited cardiac failure requiring inotropic support following surgery. The results of this study indicate that the occurrence of perioperative cardiac events can be predicted by considering the severity of expected surgical stress and preoperative G-SPECT findings for LVEF, PI, and WT. We conclude that G-SPECT is quite useful for cardiac risk assessment in patients undergoing noncardiac

  15. Comparative measurement and quantitative risk assessment of alcohol consumption through wastewater-based epidemiology: An international study in 20 cities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ryu, Yeonsuk; Barceló, Damià; Barron, Leon P.

    2016-01-01

    Quantitative measurement of drug consumption biomarkers in wastewater can provide objective information on community drug use patterns and trends. This study presents the measurement of alcohol consumption in 20 cities across 11 countries through the use of wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE...... consumption biomarker, ethyl sulfate (EtS) was determined by liquid chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry. The EtS concentrations were used for estimation of per capita alcohol consumption in each city, which was further compared with international reports and applied for risk assessment by MOE....... The average per capita consumption in 20 cities ranged between 6.4 and 44.3. L/day/1000 inhabitants. An increase in alcohol consumption during the weekend occurred in all cities, however the level of this increase was found to differ. In contrast to conventional data (sales statistics and interviews), WBE...

  16. Quantitative structure-activity relationships for predicting potential ecological hazard of organic chemicals for use in regulatory risk assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comber, Mike H I; Walker, John D; Watts, Chris; Hermens, Joop

    2003-08-01

    The use of quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs) for deriving the predicted no-effect concentration of discrete organic chemicals for the purposes of conducting a regulatory risk assessment in Europe and the United States is described. In the United States, under the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA), the TSCA Interagency Testing Committee and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) use SARs to estimate the hazards of existing and new chemicals. Within the Existing Substances Regulation in Europe, QSARs may be used for data evaluation, test strategy indications, and the identification and filling of data gaps. To illustrate where and when QSARs may be useful and when their use is more problematic, an example, methyl tertiary-butyl ether (MTBE), is given and the predicted and experimental data are compared. Improvements needed for new QSARs and tools for developing and using QSARs are discussed.

  17. Specialist antenatal clinics for women at high risk of preterm birth: a systematic review of qualitative and quantitative research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malouf, Reem; Redshaw, Maggie

    2017-02-02

    Preterm birth (PTB) is the leading cause of perinatal morbidity and mortality. Women with previous prenatal loss are at higher risk of preterm birth. A specialist antenatal clinic is considered as one approach to improve maternity and pregnancy outcomes. A systematic review of quantitative, qualitative and mixed method studies conducted on women at high risk of preterm birth (PTB). The review primary outcomes were to report on the specialist antenatal clinics effect in preventing or reducing preterm birth, perinatal mortality and morbidity and women's perceptions and experiences of a specialist clinic whether compared or not compared with standard antenatal care. Other secondary maternal, infant and economic outcomes were also determined. A comprehensive search strategy was carried out in English within electronic databases as far back as 1980. The reviewers selected studies, assessed the quality, and extracted data independently. Results were summarized and tabulated. Eleven studies fully met the review inclusion criteria, ten were quantitative design studies and only one was a qualitative design study. No mixed method design study was included in the review. All were published after 1989, seven were conducted in the USA and four in the UK. Results from five good to low quality randomised controlled trials (RCTs), all conducted before 1990, did not illustrate the efficacy of the clinic in reducing preterm birth. Whereas results from more recent low quality cohort studies showed some positive neonatal outcomes. Themes from one good quality qualitative study reflected on the emotional and psychological need to reduce anxiety and stress of women referred to such a clinic. Women expressed their negative emotional responses at being labelled as high risk and positive responses to being assessed and treated in the clinic. Women also reported that their partners were struggling to cope emotionally. Findings from this review were mixed. Evidence from cohort studies

  18. Use of static Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment to determine pathogen risks in an unconfined carbonate aquifer used for Managed Aquifer Recharge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toze, Simon; Bekele, Elise; Page, Declan; Sidhu, Jatinder; Shackleton, Mark

    2010-02-01

    Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) is becoming a mechanism used for recycling treated wastewater and captured urban stormwater and is being used as a treatment barrier to remove contaminants such as pathogens from the recharged water. There is still a need, however, to demonstrate the effectiveness of MAR to reduce any residual risk of pathogens in the recovered water. A MAR research site recharging secondary treated wastewater in an unconfined carbonate aquifer was used in conjunction with a static Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) to assess the microbial pathogen risk in the recovered water following infiltration and aquifer passage. The research involved undertaking a detailed hydrogeological assessment of the aquifer at the MAR site and determining the decay rates of reference pathogens from an in-situ decay study. These variables along with literature data were then used in the static QMRA which demonstrated that the recovered water at this site did not meet the Australian Guidelines for recycled water when used for differing private green space irrigation scenarios. The results also confirmed the importance of obtaining local hydrogeological data as local heterogeneity can influence of residence time in the aquifer which, in turn, influences the outcomes. The research demonstrated that a static QMRA can be used to determine the residual risk from pathogens in recovered water and showed that it can be a valuable tool in the preliminary design and operation of MAR systems and the incorporation of complementary engineered treatment processes to ensure that there is acceptable health risk from the recovered water. Crown Copyright 2009. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. A quantitative measure of diabetes risk in community practice impacts clinical decisions: the PREVAIL initiative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, B R; Cox, M; Inzucchi, S E; Foody, J M; Zimmer, L O; Jorge, C B; Ratner, R E; Barringer, T A; McGuire, D K; Peterson, E D

    2014-04-01

    While predictive tools are being developed to identify those at highest risk for developing diabetes, little is known whether these assays affect clinical care. Thirty sites who used the PreDx(®) (Tethys BioScience, Emeryville, CA) abstracted clinical information from baseline clinic visits prior to a PreDx test and from the most recent visit at time of abstraction. All visits occurred between May 2008-April 2011 (median follow-up 198 days, IQR 124-334). The primary analysis was the influence of the PreDx test (5-year diabetes prediction) on subsequent care; descriptive statistics were used to summarize baseline and follow-up variables. Overall 913 patients with 2 abstracted visits were included. Relative to baseline, median SBP decreased 1.5 mmHg (p = 0.039), DBP decreased 2 mmHg (p < 0.001), LDL-C decreased 4 mg/dL (p = 0.009), and HDL-C increased 2 mg/dL (p < 0.001) at follow-up. Behavioral or lifestyle counseling was not significantly different from baseline to follow-up (71.2% vs. 68.1% (p = 0.077), but BMI was lower by 0.2 kg/m(2) at follow up (p = 0.013). At follow-up, more patients were prescribed metformin (13.7% vs. 9.7%, p < 0.001). A higher PreDx score was significantly associated with metformin prescription (p = 0.0003), lifestyle counseling (p = 0.0099), and a lower BMI at follow-up (p = 0.007). The use of a prognostic test in patients perceived to be high risk for diabetes was associated with a modest but significant increase in the prescription of metformin and lifestyle interventions and a reduction in BMI. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Effects of Intervention to Improve At-Risk Fourth Graders' Understanding, Calculations, and Word Problems with Fractions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuchs, Lynn S.; Schumacher, Robin F.; Long, Jessica; Namkung, Jessica; Malone, Amelia S.; Wang, Amber; Hamlett, Carol L.; Jordan, Nancy C.; Siegler, Robert S.; Changas, Paul

    2016-01-01

    The purposes of this study were to (a) investigate the efficacy of a core fraction intervention program on understanding and calculation skill and (b) isolate the effects of different forms of fraction word-problem (WP) intervention. At-risk fourth graders (n = 213) were randomly assigned to the school's business-as-usual program, or one of two…

  1. Effects of Intervention to Improve At-Risk Fourth Graders' Understanding, Calculations, and Word Problems with Fractions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuchs, Lynn S.; Schumacher, Robin F.; Long, Jessica; Namkung, Jessica; Malone, Amelia S.; Wang, Amber; Hamlett, Carol L.; Jordan, Nancy C.; Siegler, Robert S.; Changas, Paul

    2016-01-01

    The purposes of this study were to (a) investigate the efficacy of a core fraction intervention program on understanding and calculation skill and (b) isolate the effects of different forms of fraction word-problem (WP) intervention delivered as part of the larger program. At-risk 4th graders (n = 213) were randomly assigned at the individual…

  2. Host cell proteins in biologics development: Identification, quantitation and risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xing; Hunter, Alan K; Mozier, Ned M

    2009-06-15

    Host cell proteins (HCPs) are those produced or encoded by the organisms and unrelated to the intended recombinant product. Some are necessary for growth, survival, and normal cellular processing whereas others may be non-essential, simply carried along as baggage. Like the recombinant product, HCPs may also be modified by the host with a number of post-translational modifications. Regardless of the utility, or lack thereof, HCPs are undesirable in the final drug substance. Though commonly present in small quantities (parts per million expressed as nanograms per milligrams of the intended recombinant protein) much effort and cost is expended by industry to remove them. The purpose of this review is to summarize what is of relevance in regards to the biology, the impact of genomics and proteomics on HCP evaluation, the regulatory expectations, analytical approaches, and various methodologies to remove HCPs with bioprocessing. Historical data, bioinformatics approaches and industrial case study examples are provided. Finally, a proposal for a risk assessment tool is provided which brings these facets together and proposes a means for manufacturers to classify and organize a control strategy leading to meaningful product specifications. 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  3. Quantitation of the critically ischemic zone at risk during acute coronary occlusion using PET

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Merhige, M.; Garza, D.; Sease, D.; Rowe, R.W.; Tewson, T.; Emran, A.; Bolomey, L.; Gould, K.L.

    1991-01-01

    Critical myocardial ischemia has been defined experimentally during acute coronary occlusion as flow reduction of 50% or more since cellular ATP depletion begins to occur beyond this flow reduction threshold, placing tissue at risk of cellular injury. To test the hypothesis that critically ischemic fractional left ventricular mass can be measured noninvasively with PET, nine dogs were imaged in a multi-slice positron camera using the perfusion tracer 13N-ammonia, while radiolabeled microspheres were injected into the left atrium during acute coronary occlusion. Images were processed using a 50% threshold and the size of the resulting perfusion defect was expressed as a fraction of total left ventricular image volume. The critically ischemic left ventricular fraction determined in vitro from the microsphere perfusion data, ranged from 5% to 30% of the total left ventricular weight and correlated closely with that determined noninvasively by PET with r = 0.94 (y = 1.05X - 2.0%). The authors conclude that the fraction of left ventricular myocardium rendered critically ischemic during acute coronary occlusion can be measured accurately and noninvasively in vivo using perfusion imaging with positron emission tomography

  4. Improved Understanding of Carbon Storage Risk Via Controlled-Release Experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birkholzer, J. T.; Guglielmi, Y.; Rutqvist, J.; Zheng, L.; Spycher, N.

    2014-12-01

    Two issues are often recognized as main risk drivers for carbon storage projects. The first is the possibility of pressure-induced slip of pre-existing faults, which can lead to breaching of seals to CO2 storage reservoirs. Although the mechanics of induced seismicity are well known, the characteristics of such slip events are poorly constrained and significant questions remain. The second is the potential impact of leaking CO2 on the quality of shallow potable groundwater. While several studies have been conducted using laboratory tests, natural analogues, and numerical models to evaluate the water quality changes induced by elevated CO2 concentrations, predictive understanding of these coupled processes remains limited in realistic field settings. We discuss in this invited contribution two controlled-release field experiments targeting remaining science gaps associated with induced seismicity and groundwater chemistry. The first experiment is a planned active fault slip experiment conducted in an underground research laboratory (URL) in a hardened shale formation that serves as a caprock analog. The critically stressed fault will be perturbed by the injection of fluid under pressure to simulate the influence of CO2 overpressure. The in situ reactivation experiment will use a novel borehole deformation tool that assesses the magnitude of overpressure required to cause slip, defines the mode of this slip as creeping (aseismic) or rapid (seismic), and measures the evolution of permeability on the fault. The second controlled-release field experiment was conducted in 2011/2012 to simulate the release of CO2 from a geologic storage site and study the transport as well as the chemical mechanisms leading to the CO2-induced mobilization of trace elements in a shallow aquifer. The field test involved a dipole system in which the shallow groundwater was pumped from one well, saturated with CO2 at the pressure corresponding to the hydraulic pressure of the aquifer, and

  5. Understanding public perceptions of risk regarding outdoor pet cats to inform conservation action.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gramza, Ashley; Teel, Tara; VandeWoude, Susan; Crooks, Kevin

    2016-04-01

    Free-ranging domestic cats (Felis catus) incur and impose risks on ecosystems and represent a complex issue of critical importance to biodiversity conservation and cat and human health globally. Prior social science research on this topic is limited and has emphasized feral cats even though owned cats often comprise a large proportion of the outdoor cat population, particularly in urban areas. To address this gap, we examined public risk perceptions and attitudes toward outdoor pet cats across varying levels of urbanization, including along the wildland-urban interface, in Colorado (U.S.A.), through a mail survey of 1397 residents. Residents did not view all types of risks uniformly. They viewed risks of cat predation on wildlife and carnivore predation on cats as more likely than disease-related risks. Additionally, risk perceptions were related to attitudes, prior experiences with cats and cat-wildlife interactions, and cat-owner behavior. Our findings suggest that changes in risk perceptions may result in behavior change. Therefore, knowledge of cat-related risk perceptions and attitudes could be used to develop communication programs aimed at promoting risk-aversive behaviors among cat owners and cat-management strategies that are acceptable to the public and that directly advance the conservation of native species. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

  6. Rapid Quantification of Viable Campylobacter Bacteria on Chicken Carcasses, Using Real-Time PCR and Propidium Monoazide Treatment, as a Tool for Quantitative Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Josefsen, Mathilde Hartmann; Löfström, Charlotta; Hansen, Tina Beck

    2010-01-01

    A number of intervention strategies against Campylobacter contaminated poultry focus on post-slaughter reduction of the number of cells, emphasizing the need for rapid and reliable quantitative detection of only viable Campylobacter. We present a new and rapid quantitative approach for enumeration...... method does not detect DNA from dead Campylobacter, but recognises the infectious potential of the VBNC state, and is thereby able to assess the effect of control strategies, and provide trustworthy data for risk assessment....

  7. Perception versus reality: Bridging the gap between quantitative and qualitative information relating to the risks of uranium mining

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Needham, S.

    2002-01-01

    Environmental impact of uranium mining in Australia is frequently raised as an issue of public concern. However, the level of concern both in terms of public agitation and political response has diminished over the last decade, largely as a consequence of many years of demonstrated high levels of environmental protection achieved at Australian uranium mines. Another reason is because of improved information now accessible to the public on mine environmental management systems, monitoring results, and audit outcomes. This paper describes some communication methods developed for the uranium mines of the Alligator Rivers Region of the Northern Territory. These methods have improved the effectiveness of dialogue between stakeholders, and better inform the public about the levels of environmental protection achieved and the level of risk to the environment and the community. A simple approach is described which has been developed to help build a mutual understanding between technocrats and the lay person on perceptions of risk and actual environmental impact. (author)

  8. Using a familiar risk comparison within a risk ladder to improve risk understanding by low numerates: a study of visual attention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, Carmen

    2011-07-01

    Previous experimental research provides evidence that a familiar risk comparison within a risk ladder is understood by low- and high-numerate individuals. It especially helps low numerates to better evaluate risk. In the present study, an eye tracker was used to capture individuals' visual attention to a familiar risk comparison, such as the risk associated with smoking. Two parameters of information processing-efficiency and level-were derived from visual attention. A random sample of participants from the general population (N= 68) interpreted a given risk level with the help of the risk ladder. Numeracy was negatively correlated with overall visual attention on the risk ladder (r(s) =-0.28, p= 0.01), indicating that the lower the numeracy, the more the time spent looking at the whole risk ladder. Numeracy was positively correlated with the efficiency of processing relevant frequency (r(s) = 0.34, p improving risk communication formats. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  9. Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) for an Underground Blowout Scenario in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) Well

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tyagi, M.; Zulqarnain, M.

    2017-12-01

    Offshore oil and gas exploration and production operations, involve the use of some of the cutting edge and challenging technologies of the modern time. These technological complex operations involves the risk of major accidents as well, which have been demonstrated by disasters such as the explosion and fire on the UK production platform piper alpha, the Canadian semi-submersible drilling rig Ocean Ranger and the explosion and capsizing of Deepwater horizon rig in the Gulf of Mexico. By conducting Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA), safety of various operations as well as their associated risks and significance during the entire life phase of an offshore project can be quantitatively estimated. In an underground blowout, the uncontrolled formation fluids from higher pressure formation may charge up shallower overlying low pressure formations or may migrate to sea floor. Consequences of such underground blowouts range from no visible damage at the surface to the complete loss of well, loss of drilling rig, seafloor subsidence or hydrocarbons discharged to the environment. These blowouts might go unnoticed until the over pressured sands, which are the result of charging from higher pressure reservoir due to an underground blowout. Further, engineering formulas used to estimate the fault permeability and thickness are very simple in nature and may add to uncertainty in the estimated parameters. In this study the potential of a deepwater underground blowout are assessed during drilling life phase of a well in Popeye-Genesis field reservoir in the Gulf of Mexico to estimate the time taken to charge a shallower zone to its leak-off test (LOT) value. Parametric simulation results for selected field case show that for relatively high permeability (k = 40mD) fault connecting a deep over-pressured zone to a shallower low-pressure zone of similar reservoir volumes, the time to recharge the shallower zone up to its threshold LOT value is about 135 years. If the ratio of the

  10. [MANAGEMENT OF HEALTHCARE WASTE IN THE HOSPITAL SETTING. UNDERSTANDING RISK MANAGEMENT].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galimany-Masclans, Jordi; Torres-Egea, Pilar; Sancho-Agredano, Raúl; Girbau-García, Ma Rosa; Fabrellas, Núria; Torrens-Garcia, Ma Llum; Martínez-Estalella, Gemma

    2015-05-01

    The sanitary waste represents a potential hazard for health workers. Given the high risk of infection in labor accidents, the correct management of sanitary waste minimizes this risk and improves labor and environment conditions. To identify risk perception with health professionals in relation to the advanced sorting and management of healthcare waste (HW). The current study is a descriptive, cross-sectional. The sample size was 177 health workers (nurse assistants, nurses, physicians, lab technicians) from three hospitals in Barcelona (Catalonia). Homemade questionnaire and questions with a free and spontaneous association and incomplete sentences were used to analyze labor variables, perception of risk and personal security through a Likert scale. Using a score from 1 (the lowest perception of risk) to 5 (the high perception of risk) to assess the risk perception, the average value for nurse assistants, nurses, physicians, and lab technicians was 3.71, 3.75, 3.83 and 4.03, respectively. Referring to items with free and spontaneous response association, 44.8% of workers consider HW as a biohazard, 29.6% consider it as waste material, 22.1% state that it must be managed properly and 3.5% described it as unknown residues. The results suggest that all health professionals generally have a perception of high risk. The lab technicians have a higher perception of the real risk of inadequate management of HW A 63.2% report that everyone has to make a proper management to preserve their occupational health; the 59% consider that the HW are a biological risk to the general population and only the 47.8% that are harmful to public health. Although it should be noted that only 44.8% think that HW are toxic and dangerous.

  11. Understanding personal risk of oropharyngeal cancer: risk-groups for oncogenic oral HPV infection and oropharyngeal cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Souza, G; McNeel, T S; Fakhry, C

    2017-12-01

    Incidence of human papillomavirus (HPV)-related oropharyngeal cancer is increasing. There is interest in identifying healthy individuals most at risk for development of oropharyngeal cancer to inform screening strategies. All data are from 2009 to 2014, including 13 089 people ages 20-69 in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), oropharyngeal cancer cases from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER 18) registries (representing ∼28% of the US population), and oropharyngeal cancer mortality from National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). Primary study outcomes are (i) prevalence of oncogenic HPV DNA in an oral rinse and gargle sample, and (ii) incident oropharyngeal squamous cell cancer. Oncogenic oral HPV DNA is detected in 3.5% of all adults age 20-69 years; however, the lifetime risk of oropharyngeal cancer is low (37 per 10 000). Among men 50-59 years old, 8.1% have an oncogenic oral HPV infection, 2.1% have an oral HPV16 infection, yet only 0.7% will 'ever' develop oropharyngeal cancer in their lifetime. Oncogenic oral HPV prevalence was higher in men than women, and increased with number of lifetime oral sexual partners and tobacco use. Men who currently smoked and had ≥5 lifetime oral sexual partners had 'elevated risk' (prevalence = 14.9%). Men with only one of these risk factors (i.e. either smoked and had 2-4 partners or did not smoke and had ≥5 partners) had 'medium risk' (7.3%). Regardless of what other risk factors participants had, oncogenic oral HPV prevalence was 'low' among those with only ≤1 lifetime oral sexual partner (women = 0.7% and men = 1.7%). Screening based upon oncogenic oral HPV detection would be challenging. Most groups have low oncogenic oral HPV prevalence. In addition to the large numbers of individuals who would need to be screened to identify prevalent oncogenic oral HPV, the lifetime risk of developing oropharyngeal caner among those with infection remains

  12. An association rule mining-based framework for understanding lifestyle risk behaviors.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    So Hyun Park

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: This study investigated the prevalence and patterns of lifestyle risk behaviors in Korean adults. METHODS: We utilized data from the Fourth Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey for 14,833 adults (>20 years of age. We used association rule mining to analyze patterns of lifestyle risk behaviors by characterizing non-adherence to public health recommendations related to the Alameda 7 health behaviors. The study variables were current smoking, heavy drinking, physical inactivity, obesity, inadequate sleep, breakfast skipping, and frequent snacking. RESULTS: Approximately 72% of Korean adults exhibited two or more lifestyle risk behaviors. Among women, current smoking, obesity, and breakfast skipping were associated with inadequate sleep. Among men, breakfast skipping with additional risk behaviors such as physical inactivity, obesity, and inadequate sleep was associated with current smoking. Current smoking with additional risk behaviors such as inadequate sleep or breakfast skipping was associated with physical inactivity. CONCLUSION: Lifestyle risk behaviors are intercorrelated in Korea. Information on patterns of lifestyle risk behaviors could assist in planning interventions targeted at multiple behaviors simultaneously.

  13. Quantitative weight of evidence assessment of higher tier studies on the toxicity and risks of neonicotinoids in honeybees. 3. Clothianidin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomon, Keith R; Stephenson, Gladys L

    2017-01-01

    A quantitative weight of evidence (QWoE) methodology was used to assess higher tier studies on the effects of clothianidin (CTD) on honeybees. Assessment endpoints were population size and viability of commercially managed bees and quantity of hive products. A colony-level no-observed-adverse effect concentration (NOAEC) of 25 µg CTD/kg syrup, equivalent to an oral no-observed-adverse effect-dose (NOAED) of 7.3 ng/bee/d for all responses measured. Based on a NOAEC of 19.7 µg/kg pollen, the NOAED for honeybee larvae was 2.4 ng/bee larva/d. For exposures via dust, a no-observed-adverse effect rate of 4 g CTD/ha was used to assess relevance of exposures via deposition of dust. The overall weight of evidence suggested that there is minimal risk to honeybees from exposure to CTD from its use as a seed treatment. For exposures via dust, dust/seed and dust/foliar applications, there were no exposures greater than the NOAED for CTD in nectar and pollen, indicating a de minimis risk to honeybees when the route of exposure was via uptake in plants. Analysis of effect studies in the field indicated a consistent lack of relevant effects, regardless of the way CTD was applied. For exposures via dust, there were no adverse effects because of these applications and there were no exposures greater than the NOAED for CTD in nectar and pollen. The overall weight of evidence based on many studies indicated no adverse effects on colony viability or survival of the colony. Thus, the overall conclusion is that clothianidin, as currently used in good agricultural practices, does not present a significant risk to honeybees at the level of the colony.

  14. Quantitative investment analysis

    CERN Document Server

    DeFusco, Richard

    2007-01-01

    In the "Second Edition" of "Quantitative Investment Analysis," financial experts Richard DeFusco, Dennis McLeavey, Jerald Pinto, and David Runkle outline the tools and techniques needed to understand and apply quantitative methods to today's investment process.

  15. Understanding and characterisation of the risks to human health from exposure to low levels of radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goodhead, D. T.

    2009-01-01

    Exposure to ionising radiation can lead to a wide variety of health effects. Cancer is judged to be the main risk from radiation at low doses and low dose rates, and controlling this risk has been the main factor in developing radiation protection practice. Conventional paradigms of radiobiology and radiation carcinogenesis have served to guide extrapolations of epidemiological data on exposed human populations, so as to estimate risks at low doses and low dose rates, to other types of ionising radiation and to non-uniform exposures. These paradigms are founded on a century of experimental and theoretical studies, but nevertheless there remain many uncertainties. Major assumptions and simplifications have been introduced to achieve a practical system of additive doses (and implied risks) for radiation protection. Advancing epidemiological studies and experimental research continue to reduce uncertainties in some areas while, in others, they raise new challenges to the generality and applicability of the conventional paradigms. (authors)

  16. To your health: how to understand what research tells us about risk

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Kraemer, Helena Chmura; Lowe, Karen Kraemer; Kupfer, David J

    2005-01-01

    ... of Measurements and Diagnoses 115 Part III Cutting-Edge Approaches 9 How Strong Is the Risk Factor? Potency 135 10 How Do We Do a Moderator- Mediator Analysis? 168 11 How Do We Use Multiple Risk Factors? ROC Tree Methods 189 Part IV Where Do We Go from Here? 12 Where Are We Now? 207 13 Making the Best of Good Studies 223 14 Hope for the Future 238 Append...

  17. Towards understanding and predicting suicidality in women: biomarkers and clinical risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levey, D F; Niculescu, E M; Le-Niculescu, H; Dainton, H L; Phalen, P L; Ladd, T B; Weber, H; Belanger, E; Graham, D L; Khan, F N; Vanipenta, N P; Stage, E C; Ballew, A; Yard, M; Gelbart, T; Shekhar, A; Schork, N J; Kurian, S M; Sandusky, G E; Salomon, D R; Niculescu, A B

    2016-06-01

    work in women showed co-directionality of change in expression with our previous work in men, whereas others had changes in opposite directions, underlying the issue of biological context and differences in suicidality between the two genders. With this study, we begin to shed much needed light in the area of female suicidality, identify useful objective predictors and help understand gender commonalities and differences. During the conduct of the study, one participant committed suicide. In retrospect, when the analyses were completed, her UP-Suicide risk prediction score was at the 100 percentile of all participants tested.

  18. [Do laymen understand information about hospital quality? An empirical verification using risk-adjusted mortality rates as an example].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sander, Uwe; Kolb, Benjamin; Taheri, Fatemeh; Patzelt, Christiane; Emmert, Martin

    2017-11-01

    The effect of public reporting to improve quality in healthcare is reduced by the limited intelligibility of information about the quality of healthcare providers. This may result in worse health-related choices especially for older people and those with lower levels of education. There is, as yet, little information as to whether laymen understand the concepts behind quality comparisons and if this comprehension is correlated with hospital choices. An instrument with 20 items was developed to analyze the intelligibility of five technical terms which were used in German hospital report cards to explain risk-adjusted death rates. Two online presentations of risk-adjusted death rates for five hospitals in the style of hospital report cards were developed. An online survey of 353 volunteers tested the comprehension of the risk-adjusted mortality rates and included an experimental hospital choice. The intelligibility of five technical terms was tested: risk-adjusted, actual and expected death rate, reference range and national average. The percentages of correct answers for the five technical terms were in the range of 75.0-60.2%. Between 23.8% and 5.1% of the respondents were not able to answer the question about the technical term itself. The least comprehensible technical terms were "risk-adjusted death rate" and "reference range". The intelligibility of the 20 items that were used to test the comprehension of the risk-adjusted mortality was between 89.5% and 14.2%. The two items that proved to be least comprehensible were related to the technical terms "risk-adjusted death rate" and "reference range". For all five technical terms it was found that a better comprehension correlated significantly with better hospital choices. We found a better than average intelligibility for the technical terms "actual and expected death rate" and for "national average". The least understandable were "risk-adjusted death rate" and "reference range". Since the self

  19. Quantitative risk assessment of WSSV transmission through partial harvesting and transport practices for shrimp aquaculture in Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanchez-Zazueta, Edgar; Martínez-Cordero, Francisco Javier; Chávez-Sánchez, María Cristina; Montoya-Rodríguez, Leobardo

    2017-10-01

    This quantitative risk assessment provided an analytical framework to estimate white spot syndrome virus (WSSV) transmission risks in the following different scenarios: (1) partial harvest from rearing ponds and (2) post-harvest transportation, assuming that the introduction of contaminated water with viral particles into shrimp culture ponds is the main source of viral transmission risk. Probabilities of infecting shrimp with waterborne WSSV were obtained by approaching the functional form that best fits (likelihood ratio test) published data on the dose-response relationship for WSSV orally inoculated through water into shrimp. Expert opinion defined the ranges for the following uncertain factors: (1) the concentrations of WSSV in the water spilled from the vehicles transporting the infected shrimp, (2) the total volume of these spills, and (3) the dilution into culture ponds. Multiple scenarios were analysed, starting with a viral load (VL) of 1×10 2 mL -1 in the contaminated water spilled that reached the culture pond, whose probability of infection of an individual shrimp (P i ) was negligible (1.7×10 -7 ). Increasing the VL to 1×10 4.5 mL -1 and 1×10 7 mL -1 yielded results into very low (P i =5.3×10 -5 ) and high risk (P i =1.6×10 -2 ) categories, respectively. Furthermore, different pond stocking density (SD) scenarios (20 and 30 post-larvae [PL]/m 2 ) were evaluated, and the probability of infection of at least one out of the total number of shrimp exposed (P N ) was derived; for the scenarios with a low VL (1×10 2 mL -1 ), the P N remained at a negligible risk level (P N , 2.4×10 -7 to 1.8×10 -6 ). For most of the scenarios with the moderate VL (1×10 4.5 mL -1 ), the P N scaled up to a low risk category (P N , 1.1×10 -4 to 5.6×10 -4 ), whereas for the scenarios with a high VL (1×10 7 mL -1 ), the risk levels were high (P N , 2.3×10 -2 to 3.5×10 -2 ) or very high (P N , 1.1×10 -1 to 1.6×10 -1 ) depending on the volume of contaminated water

  20. Can I Count on Getting Better? Association between Math Anxiety and Poorer Understanding of Medical Risk Reductions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rolison, Jonathan J; Morsanyi, Kinga; O'Connor, Patrick A

    2016-10-01

    Lower numerical ability is associated with poorer understanding of health statistics, such as risk reductions of medical treatment. For many people, despite good numeracy skills, math provokes anxiety that impedes an ability to evaluate numerical information. Math-anxious individuals also report less confidence in their ability to perform math tasks. We hypothesized that, independent of objective numeracy, math anxiety would be associated with poorer responding and lower confidence when calculating risk reductions of medical treatments. Objective numeracy was assessed using an 11-item objective numeracy scale. A 13-item self-report scale was used to assess math anxiety. In experiment 1, participants were asked to interpret the baseline risk of disease and risk reductions associated with treatment options. Participants in experiment 2 were additionally provided a graphical display designed to facilitate the processing of math information and alleviate effects of math anxiety. Confidence ratings were provided on a 7-point scale. Individuals of higher objective numeracy were more likely to respond correctly to baseline risks and risk reductions associated with treatment options and were more confident in their interpretations. Individuals who scored high in math anxiety were instead less likely to correctly interpret the baseline risks and risk reductions and were less confident in their risk calculations as well as in their assessments of the effectiveness of treatment options. Math anxiety predicted confidence levels but not correct responding when controlling for objective numeracy. The graphical display was most effective in increasing confidence among math-anxious individuals. The findings suggest that math anxiety is associated with poorer medical risk interpretation but is more strongly related to confidence in interpretations. © The Author(s) 2015.

  1. Transcending the Quantitative-Qualitative Divide with Mixed Methods Research: A Multidimensional Framework for Understanding Congruence and Completeness in the Study of Values

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLafferty, Charles L., Jr.; Slate, John R.; Onwuegbuzie, Anthony J.

    2010-01-01

    Quantitative research dominates published literature in the helping professions. Mixed methods research, which integrates quantitative and qualitative methodologies, has received a lukewarm reception. The authors address the iterative separation that infuses theory, praxis, philosophy, methodology, training, and public perception and propose a…

  2. Symbolic Interactionism: A Framework for Understanding Risk-Taking Behaviors in Farm Communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sorensen, Julie A; Tinc, Pamela J; Weil, Rebecca; Droullard, David

    2017-01-01

    Risk behaviors are key drivers of occupationally related injuries and illnesses, considerably impacting the uptake and success of injury interventions, technologies, and practices. This is certainly true in the agricultural sector, where farmers often ignore recommended safety practices or have even been known to disable safety technologies. Although research studies have characterized specific individual safety or risk behaviors, few studies have thoroughly examined farmers' risk and safety orientations or how these develop in response to environmental and societal exposures. This study utilizes data collected over the past decade with a variety of small to midsize farm personnel to explore the meanings that farmers ascribe to risk and safety and how these influence risk and safety behaviors. In all, over 90 interviews with farmers, farm-wives, and family members were reviewed. Researchers used a grounded theory approach to identify patterns of environmental and societal exposures, as well as their impact on farmers' risk and safety orientations. Analysis revealed exposures and orientations to risk and safety, which could be largely explained through the lens of symbolic interactionism. This framework posits that people create a sense-of-self as a way of adjusting and adapting to their environment. For farmers in this study, belief in their ability to persevere allows them to succeed, despite the considerable stressors and challenges they face each day. However, this identity can, at times, be maladaptive when it is applied to safety decisions and hazard exposures. The authors discuss the implications of this research and how it may be used to productively inform future farm safety efforts.

  3. Risk Management Practices: The Ghanaian Firms' Perspective ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Using a quantitative approach the findings of the study are that Ghanaian firms understand risk and risk management. Additionally, operational, liquidity and credit risk are the most dominant risks experienced while risk identification and selection jointly determine risk management practices in Ghana. Based on the findings ...

  4. Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) shows increased public health risk associated with exposure to river water under conditions of riverbed sediment resuspension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abia, Akebe Luther King; Ubomba-Jaswa, Eunice; Genthe, Bettina; Momba, Maggy Ndombo Benteke

    2016-10-01

    Although higher microbial concentrations have been reported in sediments than in the overlying water column, most quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) studies have not clearly indicated the contribution of sediment-borne pathogens to estimated risks. Thus, the present study aimed at determining the public health risk associated with exposure to pathogenic bacteria in polluted river water under undisturbed conditions and conditions of sediment resuspension in the Apies River, Gauteng, South Africa. Microbial pathogens were isolated and identified using culture and molecular methods. The beta-Poisson dose-response model was used to estimate the probability of infection (Pi) with the various pathogens, following accidental/intentional ingestion of 1mL or 100mL (or 50mL) of untreated river water. Mean wet season Escherichia coli counts ranged between 5.8E+01 and 8.8E+04MPN/100mL (water column) and between 2.40E+03 and 1.28E+05MPN/100mL (sediments). Mean dry season E. coli counts ranged between 5.11E+00 and 3.40E+03MPN/100mL (water column) and between 5.09E+00 and 6.30E+03MPN/100mL (sediments). Overall (water and sediments) Vibrio cholerae was the most detected pathogen (58.8%) followed by Salmonella spp. (23.9%) and Shigella (10.1%). Ingestion of 1mL of river water could lead to 0%-4% and 1%-74% Pi with E. coli during the dry and wet season, respectively. During the dry season, the Pi with V. cholerae, Salmonella spp. and Shigella spp. were 0%-1.39%, 0%-4.11% and 0%-0.16% respectively, depending on volume of water ingested. The risks of infections with all microorganisms increased during the wet season. A 2-log increase in water E. coli count following sediments disturbance led to approximately 10 times higher Pi with E. coli than when sediments were undisturbed. Therefore, the use of the untreated water from the Apies River for drinking, household purposes or recreational activities poses a potential health risk to the users of the river. Copyright © 2016

  5. The meaning of results. Understanding comparative risk assessments of energy options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, R.; Holland, M.; Rabl, A.; Dreicer, M.

    1999-01-01

    Results of comparative risk assessments can be used for a range of potential applications: choice and balance of technologies for strategic energy planning; choice of a new power plant; optimal dispatching of existing plants; optimization of regulations (emission limits, environmental quality objectives such as air quality limits, tradable permits, pollution taxes); accounting for climate change. When reporting the results of comparative risk assessment, a number of factors should be clear: precise nature of the energy system being assessed; what has been excluded from the analysis; sources of data used in assessment; assumptions that have been made; and what the analysts and other experts have regarded as the key sensitivities in the analysis. If all factors are addressed, the results of comparative risk assessment will prove to be an essential resource for making the best decisions about energy options and policies

  6. Quantitative rockfall hazard and risk analysis in selected municipalities of the České Švýcarsko National Park, northwestern Czechia

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Blahůt, Jan; Klimeš, Jan; Vařilová, Z.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 118, č. 3 (2013), s. 205-220 ISSN 1212-0014 R&D Projects: GA ČR GP205/09/P383 Institutional support: RVO:67985891 Keywords : rockfall hazard and risk * quantitative risk * Cretaceous sandstones * CONEFALL Subject RIV: DE - Earth Magnetism, Geodesy, Geography Impact factor: 0.400, year: 2013 http://geography.cz/sbornik/wp-content/uploads/downloads/2013/10/g13-3-s205-220-blahút.pdf

  7. Quantitative risk trends deriving from PSA-based event analyses. Analysis of results from U.S.NRC's accident sequence precursor program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watanabe, Norio

    2004-01-01

    The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (U.S.NRC) has been carrying out the Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) Program to identify and categorize precursors to potential severe core damage accident sequences using the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) technique. The ASP Program has identified a lot of risk significant events as precursors that occurred at U.S. nuclear power plants. Although the results from the ASP Program include valuable information that could be useful for obtaining and characterizing risk significant insights and for monitoring risk trends in nuclear power industry, there are only a few attempts to determine and develop the trends using the ASP results. The present study examines and discusses quantitative risk trends for the industry level, using two indicators, that is, the occurrence frequency of precursors and the annual core damage probability, deriving from the results of the ASP analysis. It is shown that the core damage risk at U.S. nuclear power plants has been lowered and the likelihood of risk significant events has been remarkably decreasing. As well, the present study demonstrates that two risk indicators used here can provide quantitative information useful for examining and monitoring the risk trends and/or risk characteristics in nuclear power industry. (author)

  8. Understanding human – bat interactions in NSW, Australia: improving risk communication for prevention of Australian bat lyssavirus

    OpenAIRE

    Quinn, Emma K; Massey, Peter D; Cox-Witton, Keren; Paterson, Beverley J; Eastwood, Keith; Durrheim, David N

    2014-01-01

    Background Australian bat lyssavirus (ABLV) infects a number of flying fox and insectivorous bats species in Australia. Human infection with ABLV is inevitably fatal unless prior vaccination and/or post-exposure treatment (PET) is given. Despite ongoing public health messaging about the risks associated with bat contact, surveillance data have revealed a four-fold increase in the number of people receiving PET for bat exposure in NSW between 2007 and 2011. Our study aimed to better understand...

  9. Quantitative risk assessment: is more complex always better? Simple is not stupid and complex is not always more correct.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zwietering, Marcel H

    2009-08-31

    In quantitative risk assessments a large variety of complexities can be found, from simple and deterministic to very extensive and stochastic. This publication advocates that both simple and complex approaches have their value and should be done in parallel. The simple analysis gives much insight and can help to detect main factors and potential errors in the complex analysis. Extensive analysis with increased complexity suggests better precision but might not increase the accuracy, due to the uncertainty in the additional parameters. However, complex analysis supplies more confidence in certain phenomena and might also increase insight. This is shown with two examples. The first is the effectiveness of sampling plans for powdered infant formula, for factories operating at various levels of contamination. The results of a simple determination, an analysis including a within batch variability and an analysis including both within batch and between batch variability will be compared. The last approach has as advantage that apart from determining the probability of rejection of a batch, it can determine also the reduction of the health risk in the population following a certain sampling plan; it is more complex but it also does bring additional information. However the conclusions still contain large uncertainty, due to the difficulty of obtaining realistic values of the within batch and between batch variability. The second example is dose-response relations comparing the exponential model (one parameter), the beta-Poisson model (two parameters) and the Weibull-gamma model (three parameters). The conclusion is not that simple is best, but that simple is not stupid, and provides valuable information. Complex, on the other hand, is not always by definition more correct, but also does have its merits.

  10. Using participatory risk mapping (PRM to identify and understand people's perceptions of crop loss to animals in Uganda.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amanda D Webber

    Full Text Available Considering how people perceive risks to their livelihoods from local wildlife is central to (i understanding the impact of crop damage by animals on local people and (ii recognising how this influences their interactions with, and attitudes towards, wildlife. Participatory risk mapping (PRM is a simple, analytical tool that can be used to identify and classify risk within communities. Here we use it to explore local people's perceptions of crop damage by wildlife and the animal species involved. Interviews (n = 93, n = 76 and seven focus groups were conducted in four villages around Budongo Forest Reserve, Uganda during 2004 and 2005. Farms (N = 129 were simultaneously monitored for crop loss. Farmers identified damage by wildlife as the most significant risk to their crops; risk maps highlighted its anomalous status compared to other anticipated challenges to agricultural production. PRM was further used to explore farmers' perceptions of animal species causing crop damage and the results of this analysis compared with measured crop losses. Baboons (Papio anubis were considered the most problematic species locally but measurements of loss indicate this perceived severity was disproportionately high. In contrast goats (Capra hircus were considered only a moderate risk, yet risk of damage by this species was significant. Surprisingly, for wild pigs (Potamochoerus sp, perceptions of severity were not as high as damage incurred might have predicted, although perceived incidence was greater than recorded frequency of damage events. PRM can assist researchers and practitioners to identify and explore perceptions of the risk of crop damage by wildlife. As this study highlights, simply quantifying crop loss does not determine issues that are important to local people nor the complex relationships between perceived risk factors. Furthermore, as PRM is easily transferable it may contribute to the identification and development of

  11. Quantitative Risk - Phase 1

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-03

    November 2002 29. Ward, D., “The Comic Guide To Improving Defense Acquisitions”, Department of Defense, 2012 30. Nilsson, P.,Ohlsson, E...Professional Education Program, 2002 UNCLASSIFIED Contract Number: H98230-08-D-0171 TO 0030, RT 040 Report No. SERC-2013-TR-040-2 Revised

  12. Addressing business from a social-ecological perspective to understand and deal with risk and resilience

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Haywood, L

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available on ecosystem services for the provision of clean water, air, productive soils and other natural resources it is imperative to understand the complex landscape in which the business operate and how global change can have a devastating economic consequences...

  13. Understanding Risk and Protective Factors for Child Maltreatment: The Value of Integrated, Population-Based Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Putnam-Hornstein, Emily; Needell, Barbara; Rhodes, Anne E.

    2013-01-01

    In this article, we argue for expanded efforts to integrate administrative data systems as a "practical strategy" for developing a richer understanding of child abuse and neglect. Although the study of child maltreatment is often critiqued for being atheoretical, we believe that a more pressing concern is the absence of population-based and…

  14. Understanding Dysfunctional and Functional Family Behaviors for the At-Risk Adolescent.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Don; Martin, Maggie

    2000-01-01

    At-risk adolescents and their impact on families and society, as well as characteristics of both healthy and maladaptive families, are discussed. Cognitive distortions of dysfunctional adolescents and their effect on family members, along with methods for intervention and creating more healthy environments, are delineated from a systemic…

  15. Business Conflict and Risk Regulation: Understanding the Influence of the Pesticide Industry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jansen, Kees

    2017-01-01

    Despite the criticism, frequent in the literature, of business influence on the formulation of pesticide risk regulation, there has been remarkably little systematic study of this practice. This article discusses Costa Rica pesticide producers’ business influence on global and national efforts to

  16. Extrapolating understanding of food risk perceptions to emerging food safety cases

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kaptan, Gülbanu; Fischer, Arnout R.H.; Frewer, Lynn J.

    2017-01-01

    Important determinants of risk perceptions associated with foods are the extent to which the potential hazards are perceived to have technological or naturally occurring origins, together with the acute vs. chronic dimension in which the potential hazard is presented (acute or chronic). This

  17. Understanding gender, sexuality and HIV risk in HEIs: narratives of international post-graduate students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mathabo Khau

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Thirty years into the HIV&AIDS pandemic, the world is still striving to reduce new HIV infections and halve AIDS related deaths by 2015. However, sub-Saharan Africa still faces the burden of HIV infections as governments and private institutions try out different prevention strategies (UNAIDS 2011. Several scholars have argued that multiple concurrent sexual partnerships (MCSP pose the greatest risk for new HIV infections. Furthermore, research has also linked MCSPs to mobility and migration. This paper draws from the project ‘Sexual identities and HIV&AIDS: an exploration of international university students’ experiences” which employed memory work, photo-voice, drawings and focus group discussions with ten (5male and 5female Post Graduate international students at a South African university. Focussing on the data produced through memory work, I present university students’ lived-experience narratives of mobility and migration in relation to how they perceive MCSPs and HIV risk. The findings show how students construct their gendered and sexual identities in a foreign context and how these constructions intersect with their choices of sexual relationships and HIV risk. I argue from the findings that Higher Education Institutions should be treated as high risk ‘spaces of vulnerability’ and hence health support services and HIV intervention programming policies should be geared towards addressing such vulnerabilities in order to create sustainable teaching and learning environments that allow for all students to explore their full capabilities.

  18. Parent/Student Risk and Protective Factors in Understanding Early Adolescent's Body Mass Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitzpatrick, Kevin M.; Willis, Don

    2016-01-01

    This article's aim is to examine correlates of middle school students' body mass index (BMI). Little research simultaneously has considered both child and parent correlates in predicting child's BMI; we examine the interrelationships between middle school students and their parent's risks and protective factors and their impact on the child's BMI.…

  19. Understanding human and organisational factors - Nuclear safety and at-risk organisations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernard, Benoit

    2014-01-01

    This book addresses human and organisational factors which are present at different moments of the lifetime of an at-risk installation (from design to dismantling). At-risk organisations are considered as firstly human systems, and the objective is then to highlight individual and collective mechanisms in these organisations. Several questions are addressed, notably the origins of at-risk behaviour, and the reasons of the repetition of errors by these organisations. A first chapter, while referring to examples, addresses the human dimension of safety: human and organisational factors as obstacles, normal accidents (Three Mile Island), accidents in high-reliability organisations (Chernobyl), identification of root causes (Tokai-mura), and social-technical approach to safety (Fukushima). By also referring to examples, the second chapter addresses how to analyse at-risk organisations: individual behaviours (case of naval and air transport accidents), team coordination (a fire, the Challenger accident), and organisational regulation (organisations forms and routines, explosion of BP Texas City, explosion of Columbia)

  20. Understanding the long-term fire risks in forests affected by sudden oak death

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yana Valachovic; Chris Lee; Radoslaw Glebocki; Hugh Scanlon; J. Morgan Varner; David. Rizzo

    2010-01-01

    It is assumed that large numbers of dead and down tanoak in forests infested by Phytophthora ramorum contribute to increased fire hazard risk and fuel loading. We studied the impact of P. ramorum infestation on surface fuel loading, potential fire hazard, and potential fire behavior in Douglas-fir- (Pseudotsuga...

  1. Understanding the Impact of Exposure Patterns on Risks from Combined Exposures to Multiple Chemicals

    Science.gov (United States)

    The talk was invited so there is no formal abstract. However, the focus of the talk is on the use of exposure information in the evaluation of risks from combined exposures to chemicals. The talk presents a bit of history and several case studies. All empirical data presented hav...

  2. Risky Business: An Integrated Institutional Theory for Understanding High-Risk Decision Making in Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Lauren A.; Angulo, A. J.

    2018-01-01

    Lauren A. Turner and A. J. Angulo explore how institutional theory can be applied to explain variance in higher education organizational strategies. Given strong regulatory, normative, and cultural-cognitive pressures to conform, they ask, why do some colleges engage in high-risk decision making? To answer this, they bring together classic and…

  3. PERFORMANCE OF QUANTITATIVE ULTRASOUND AND SIX OSTEOPOROSIS RISK INDEXES IN MENOPAUSAL WOMEN: VALIDATION AND COMPARATIVE EVALUATION STUDY.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Imad GHOZLANI

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: A number of questionnaire-based systems and the use of portable quantitative ultrasound scanners (QUS have been devised in an attempt to produce a cost-effective method of screening for osteoporosis.Objective: to assess the sensitivity and specificity of different techniques and their ability to act as screening tools in relation to dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA.Methods: 295 white postmenopausal women aged over 60 were enrolled. Each subject completed a standardized questionnaire which permits the measure of six osteoporosis indexes and had bone mineral density (BMD measured using QUS and DXA. Sensitivity and specificity of the different techniques in relation to DXA were plotted as receiver-operating characteristic (ROC curves at DXA T-score total hip ≤ -2.5 (osteoporosis.Results: BUA sensitivity and specificity values were respectively 76.8% and 51.2% at the total hip. The optimal cut-off T-score for QUS was -2 at the total hip. The osteoporosis self-assessment tool (OST provided consistently the highest AUC (0.80 among the clinical tools and had the best sensitivity and specificity balance (90.2%-44.5%. OST negative likelihood ratio was 0.22.Conclusion: OST (based only on the weight and the age performed slightly better than QUS and other risk questionnaires in predicting low BMD at the total hip

  4. Performance of two quantitative PCR methods for microbial source tracking of human sewage and implications for microbial risk assessment in recreational waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Before new, rapid quantitative PCR (qPCR) methods for recreational water quality assessment and microbial source tracking (MST) can be useful in a regulatory context, an understanding of the ability of the method to detect a DNA target (marker) when the contaminant soure has been...

  5. A guide to understanding and implementing risk evaluation and mitigation strategies in organ transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabardi, Steven; Tichy, Eric M

    2013-03-01

    To review the components of the Congressional mandate for risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) managed by the Food and Drug Administration and assess their impact on health care providers practicing within the organ transplant arena. A non-date-limited search of MEDLINE and EMBASE (January 2007-June 2012) was conducted by using the following search terms: risk evaluation and mitigation strategies, REMS, and organ transplant, including a query of the individual organs. Information from the Federal Register and the Food and Drug Administration was also evaluated. REMS are strategies implemented to manage known or potential risks associated with medications and to ensure ongoing pharmacovigilance throughout the life of a pharmaceutical product. Elements of REMS programs may consist of 3 levels: a medication guide, communication plan, and elements to assure safe use. A medication guide is used to help prevent serious adverse events, aid in patients' decision making, and enhance medication adherence. Communication plans help educate health care providers and encourage adherence with REMS. The elements to assure safe use is a restrictive process implemented when it is deemed necessary to ensure safe access for patients to products with known serious risks. In transplant medicine, REMS currently exist for belatacept (medication guide and communication plan) and the mycophenolic acid derivatives (medication guide and elements to assure safe use). REMS are another step in the evolution of the development and marketing of pharmaceutical agents. Use of REMS in solid-organ transplant is becoming common. Transplant clinicians must provide required patient education and become involved with other aspects of REMS implementation to reduce the serious risks of pharmaceuticals and to improve patients' outcomes.

  6. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for Escherichia coli O157 : H7, Salmonella, and Listeria monocytogenes in Leafy Green Vegetables Consumed at Salad Bars

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Franz, E.; Tromp, S.O.; Rijgersberg, H.; Fels-Klerx, van der H.J.

    2010-01-01

    Fresh vegetables are increasingly recognized as a source of foodborne outbreaks in many parts of the world. The purpose of this study was to conduct a quantitative microbial risk assessment for Escherichia coli O157:H7, Salmonella, and Listeria monocytogenes infection from consumption of leafy green

  7. Effects of a 20 year rain event: a quantitative microbial risk assessment of a case of contaminated bathing water in Copenhagen, Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Signe Tanja; Erichsen, A. C.; Mark, O.

    2013-01-01

    Quantitative microbial risk assessments (QMRAs) often lack data on water quality leading to great uncertainty in the QMRA because of the many assumptions. The quantity of waste water contamination was estimated and included in a QMRA on an extreme rain event leading to combined sewer overflow (CS...

  8. Applying Ecodevelopmental Theory and the Theory of Reasoned Action to Understand HIV Risk Behaviors Among Hispanic Adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortega, Johis; Huang, Shi; Prado, Guillermo

    2012-01-03

    HIV/AIDS is listed as one of the top 10 reasons for the death of Hispanics between the ages of 15 and 54 in the United States. This cross sectional, descriptive secondary study proposed that using both the systemic (ecodevelopmental) and the individually focused (theory of reasoned action) theories together would lead to an increased understanding of the risk and protective factors that influence HIV risk behaviors in this population. The sample consisted of 493 Hispanic adolescent 7th and 8th graders and their immigrant parents living in Miami, Florida. Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) was used for the data analysis. Family functioning emerged as the heart of the model, embedded within a web of direct and mediated relationships. The data support the idea that family can play a central role in the prevention of Hispanic adolescents' risk behaviors.

  9. Understanding the risk factors of trauma center closures: do financial pressure and community characteristics matter?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Yu-Chu; Hsia, Renee Y; Kuzma, Kristen

    2009-09-01

    We analyze whether hazard rates of shutting down trauma centers are higher due to financial pressures or in areas with vulnerable populations (such as minorities or the poor). This is a retrospective study of all hospitals with trauma center services in urban areas in the continental US between 1990 and 2005, identified from the American Hospital Association Annual Surveys. These data were linked with Medicare cost reports, and supplemented with other sources, including the Area Resource File. We analyze the hazard rates of trauma center closures among several dimensions of risk factors using discrete-time proportional hazard models. The number of trauma center closures increased from 1990 to 2005, with a total of 339 during this period. The hazard rate of closing trauma centers in hospitals with a negative profit margin is 1.38 times higher than those hospitals without the negative profit margin (P lower hazard of shutting down trauma centers (ratio: 0.58, P penetration face a higher hazard of trauma center closure (ratio: 2.06, P < 0.01). Finally, hospitals in areas with higher shares of minorities face a higher risk of trauma center closure (ratio: 1.69, P < 0.01). Medicaid load and uninsured populations, however, are not risk factors for higher rates of closure after we control for other financial and community characteristics. Our findings give an indication on how the current p