WorldWideScience

Sample records for understand quantitative risk

  1. Understanding Pre-Quantitative Risk in Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Lynne P.

    2011-01-01

    Standard approaches to risk management in projects depend on the ability of teams to identify risks and quantify the probabilities and consequences of these risks (e.g., the 5 x 5 risk matrix). However, long before quantification does - or even can - occur, and long after, teams make decisions based on their pre-quantitative understanding of risk. These decisions can have long-lasting impacts on the project. While significant research has looked at the process of how to quantify risk, our understanding of how teams conceive of and manage pre-quantitative risk is lacking. This paper introduces the concept of pre-quantitative risk and discusses the implications of addressing pre-quantitative risk in projects.

  2. Understanding outbreaks of waterborne infectious disease: quantitative microbial risk assessment vs. epidemiology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drinking water contaminated with microbial pathogens can cause outbreaks of infectious disease, and these outbreaks are traditionally studied using epidemiologic methods. Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) can predict – and therefore help prevent – such outbreaks, but it has never been r...

  3. Quantitative Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-02-24

    Needs Met and Verified 3. Interface Completion Trends 4. Staffing Skills and Trend 5. Risk Burndown 6. Technical Performance Measure ( TPM ) Trends...measured by the Technical Performance Measures ( TPM ) for the Technical Performance Parameters (TPP). Cost and schedule are measured with the Earned...Value Management (EVM) system. The TPP and TPM are formulated for the particular program, and are derived from the major system performance

  4. Quantitative Risk Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Helms, J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2017-02-10

    The US energy sector is vulnerable to multiple hazards including both natural disasters and malicious attacks from an intelligent adversary. The question that utility owners, operators and regulators face is how to prioritize their investments to mitigate the risks from a hazard that can have the most impact on the asset of interest. In order to be able to understand their risk landscape and develop a prioritized mitigation strategy, they must quantify risk in a consistent way across all hazards their asset is facing. Without being able to quantitatively measure risk, it is not possible to defensibly prioritize security investments or evaluate trade-offs between security and functionality. Development of a methodology that will consistently measure and quantify risk across different hazards is needed.

  5. Understanding quantitative research: part 1.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoe, Juanita; Hoare, Zoë

    This article, which is the first in a two-part series, provides an introduction to understanding quantitative research, basic statistics and terminology used in research articles. Critical appraisal of research articles is essential to ensure that nurses remain up to date with evidence-based practice to provide consistent and high-quality nursing care. This article focuses on developing critical appraisal skills and understanding the use and implications of different quantitative approaches to research. Part two of this article will focus on explaining common statistical terms and the presentation of statistical data in quantitative research.

  6. The effects of infographics and several quantitative versus qualitative formats for cardiovascular disease risk, including heart age, on people's risk understanding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damman, Olga C; Vonk, Suzanne I; van den Haak, Maaike J; van Hooijdonk, Charlotte M J; Timmermans, Danielle R M

    2018-03-11

    To study how comprehension of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk is influenced by: (1) infographics about qualitative risk information, with/without risk numbers; (2) which qualitative risk dimension is emphasized; (3) heart age vs. traditional risk format. For aim 1, a 2 (infographics versus text) x 2 (risk number versus no risk number) between-subjects design was used. For aim 2, three pieces of information were tested within-subjects. Aim 3 used a simple comparison group. Participants (45-65 yrs old) were recruited through an online access panel; low educated people were oversampled. They received hypothetical risk information (20%/61yrs). Primary outcomes: recall, risk appraisals, subjective/objective risk comprehension. behavioral intentions, information evaluations. Infographics of qualitative risk dimensions negatively affected recall, subjective risk comprehension and information evaluations. No effect of type of risk dimension was found on risk perception. Heart age influenced recall, comprehension, evaluations and affective risk appraisals. Infographics of hypothetical CVD risk information had detrimental effects on measures related to risk perception/comprehension, but effects were mainly seen in undereducated participants. Heart age influenced perceptions/comprehension of hypothetical risk in a way that seemed to support understanding. Heart age seems a fruitful risk communication approach in disease risk calculators. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Innovations in Quantitative Risk Management

    CERN Document Server

    Scherer, Matthias; Zagst, Rudi

    2015-01-01

    Quantitative models are omnipresent –but often controversially discussed– in todays risk management practice. New regulations, innovative financial products, and advances in valuation techniques provide a continuous flow of challenging problems for financial engineers and risk managers alike. Designing a sound stochastic model requires finding a careful balance between parsimonious model assumptions, mathematical viability, and interpretability of the output. Moreover, data requirements and the end-user training are to be considered as well. The KPMG Center of Excellence in Risk Management conference Risk Management Reloaded and this proceedings volume contribute to bridging the gap between academia –providing methodological advances– and practice –having a firm understanding of the economic conditions in which a given model is used. Discussed fields of application range from asset management, credit risk, and energy to risk management issues in insurance. Methodologically, dependence modeling...

  8. The effects of infographics and several quantitative versus qualitative formats for cardiovascular disease risk, including heart age, on people's risk understanding.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Damman, Olga C; Vonk, Suzanne I; Van den Haak, Maaike J; van Hooijdonk, Charlotte M J; Timmermans, Danielle R M

    2018-01-01

    To study how comprehension of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk is influenced by: (1) infographics about qualitative risk information, with/without risk numbers; (2) which qualitative risk dimension is emphasized; (3) heart age vs. traditional risk format.

  9. Microbiological Quantitative Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dominguez, Silvia; Schaffner, Donald W.

    The meat and poultry industry faces ongoing challenges due to the natural association of pathogens of concern (e.g., Salmonella, Campylobacter jejuni, Escherichia coli O157:H7) with a variety of domesticated food animals. In addition, pathogens such as Listeria monocytogenes pose a significant cross-contamination risk during further meat and poultry processing, distribution, and storage. Furthermore, the meat and poultry industries are constantly changing with the addition of new products, use of new raw materials, and targeting of new consumer populations, each of which may give rise to potential new risks. National and international regulations are increasingly using a “risk-based” approach to food safety (where the regulatory focus is driven by the magnitude of the risk), so risk assessment is becoming a valuable tool to systematically organize and evaluate the potential public health risk posed by food processing operations.

  10. Quantitative Hazard and Risk Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Geza Tarnai; Balazs Saghi; Izabela Krbilova

    2006-01-01

    In this paper a quantitative method for hazard and risk analysis is discussed. The method was developed and introduced for the allocation of safety requirements to the functions of a railway signaling remote control system.

  11. Are risks quantitatively determinable

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buetzer, P.

    1985-01-01

    ''Chemical risks'' can only be determined with accurate figures in a few extraordinary cases. The difficulties lie, as has been shown by the example of the Flixborough catastrophe, mostly in the determination of the probabilities of occurrence. With a rough semiquantitative estimate of the potential hazards and the corresponding probabilities we can predict the risks with astonishing accuracy. Statistical data from incidents in the chemical industry are very useful, and they also show that ''chemical catastrophes'' are only to a very small extent initiated by uncontrolled chemical reactions. (orig.) [de

  12. Using quantitative phase petrology to understand metamorphism

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Richard

    2015-04-01

    Quantitative phase petrology has become one of the mainstay methods for interpreting metamorphic rocks and processes. Its increased utility has been driven by improvements to end-member thermodynamics, activity-composition relationships and computer programs to undertake calculations. Such improvements now allow us to undertake calculations in increasingly complex chemical systems that more closely reflect those of rocks. Recent progress in activity-composition (a-x) relationships is aimed at developing suites of a-x relationships in large chemical systems that are calibrated together, which will allow a more direct application of the method to metamorphic rocks. In addition, considerable progress has been made in how quantitative phase diagrams can be used to understand features, including chemical potential diagrams for reaction textures, methods for fractionating bulk compositions and methods for modelling open system processes. One feature of calculated phase diagrams is that they present us with a great amount of information, such as mineral assemblages, mineral proportions, phase compositions, volume or density etc. An important aspect to using this information is to understand the potential uncertainties associated with these, which are significant. These uncertainties require that calculated phase diagrams be used with caution to interpret observed features in rocks. Features such as mineral zoning and reaction textures should still be interpreted in a semi-quantitative way, even if based on a fully quantitative diagram. Exercises such as the interpretation of reaction overstepping based on relating phase diagrams to observed mineral core compositions are likely to give spurious results given the infelicities in existing a-x models. Despite these limitations, quantitative phase petrology remains the most useful approach to interpreting the metamorphic history of rocks in that it provides a theoretical framework in which to interpret observed features rather

  13. Challenges in Risk Assessment: Quantitative Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke; De Meulenaer, Bruno

    2016-01-01

    The process of risk analysis consists out of three components, risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. These components are internationally well spread by Codex Alimentarius Commission as being the basis for setting science based standards, criteria on food safety hazards, e.g. setting maximum limits of mycotoxins in foodstuffs. However, the technical component risk assessment is hard to elaborate and to understand. Key in a risk assessment is the translation of biological or...

  14. Quantitative Risk in Radiation Protection Standards

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bond, V. P.

    1979-01-03

    Although the overall aim of radiobiology is to understand the biological effects of radiation, it also has the implied practical purpose of developing rational measures for the control of radiation exposure in man. The emphasis in this presentation is to show that the enormous effort expended over the years to develop quantitative dose-effect relationships in biochemical and cellular systems, animals, and human beings now seems to be paying off. The pieces appear to be falling into place, and a framework is evolving to utilize these data. Specifically, quantitative risk assessments will be discussed in terms of the cellular, animal, and human data on which they are based; their use in the development of radiation protection standards; and their present and potential impact and meaning in relation to the quantity dose equivalent and its special unit, the rem.

  15. Coherent quantitative measures of agricultural risks

    OpenAIRE

    TARASOV A.O.

    2011-01-01

    Advantages of quantitative risk measurements in agricultural business are grounded. Coherent methods of production and price risk assessment by modeling stochastic risk factor variations are proposed. Instruments for acceptable and critical risk level measurements are presented by providing an example for sunflower seed production.

  16. Quantitative Risk Assessment of Contact Sensitization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Api, Anne Marie; Belsito, Donald; Bickers, David

    2010-01-01

    Background: Contact hypersensitivity quantitative risk assessment (QRA) for fragrance ingredients is being used to establish new international standards for all fragrance ingredients that are potential skin sensitizers. Objective: The objective was to evaluate the retrospective clinical data...

  17. Quantitative Identification of Construction Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Kasprowicz T.

    2017-01-01

    Risks pertaining to construction work relate to situations in which various events may randomly change the duration and cost of the project or worsen its quality. Because of possible significant changes of random events, favorable, moderate, and difficult conditions of construction work are considered. It is the first stage of the construction risk analysis. The probabilistic parameters of construction are identified and described by using the design characteristics model of the structure and...

  18. Understanding your prostate cancer risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... older. Family history. Having a father, brother, or son with prostate cancer increases your risk. Having one immediate family member with prostate cancer doubles a man's own risk. A man who has 2 or ...

  19. Understanding your colon cancer risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colon cancer - prevention; Colon cancer - screening ... We do not know what causes colon cancer, but we do know some of the things that may increase the risk of getting it, such as: Age. Your risk increases ...

  20. Understanding and managing risk attitude

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hillson, David; Murray-Webster, Ruth

    2007-01-01

    ... This book highlights how risk attitude factors influence the human psyche, and carefully explains the impacts. Organisations seeking to dramatically improve the effectiveness of their risk management process will want to use this book's insights. Craig Peterson, President, PMI Risk Management SIG This book has prompted me to think more deeply as a change d...

  1. Understanding your breast cancer risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... provider about the risks and benefits before taking hormone therapy . You may want to avoid taking estrogen combined with progesterone or progestin. If you have a family history of breast cancer, ask your provider about genetic ...

  2. Expert judgement models in quantitative risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosqvist, T.; Tuominen, R.

    1999-01-01

    Expert judgement is a valuable source of information in risk management. Especially, risk-based decision making relies significantly on quantitative risk assessment, which requires numerical data describing the initiator event frequencies and conditional probabilities in the risk model. This data is seldom found in databases and has to be elicited from qualified experts. In this report, we discuss some modelling approaches to expert judgement in risk modelling. A classical and a Bayesian expert model is presented and applied to real case expert judgement data. The cornerstone in the models is the log-normal distribution, which is argued to be a satisfactory choice for modelling degree-of-belief type probability distributions with respect to the unknown parameters in a risk model. Expert judgements are qualified according to bias, dispersion, and dependency, which are treated differently in the classical and Bayesian approaches. The differences are pointed out and related to the application task. Differences in the results obtained from the different approaches, as applied to real case expert judgement data, are discussed. Also, the role of a degree-of-belief type probability in risk decision making is discussed

  3. Quantitative risk assessment of drinking water contaminants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cothern, C.R.; Coniglio, W.A.; Marcus, W.L.

    1986-01-01

    The development of criteria and standards for the regulation of drinking water contaminants involves a variety of processes, one of which is risk estimation. This estimation process, called quantitative risk assessment, involves combining data on the occurrence of the contaminant in drinking water and its toxicity. The human exposure to a contaminant can be estimated from occurrence data. Usually the toxicity or number of health effects per concentration level is estimated from animal bioassay studies using the multistage model. For comparison, other models will be used including the Weibull, probit, logit and quadratic ones. Because exposure and toxicity data are generally incomplete, assumptions need to be made and this generally results in a wide range of certainty in the estimates. This range can be as wide as four to six orders of magnitude in the case of the volatile organic compounds in drinking water and a factor of four to five for estimation of risk due to radionuclides in drinking water. As examples of the differences encountered in risk assessment of drinking water contaminants, discussions are presented on benzene, lead, radon and alachlor. The lifetime population risk estimates for these contaminants are, respectively, in the ranges of: <1 - 3000, <1 - 8000, 2000-40,000 and <1 - 80. 11 references, 1 figure, 1 table

  4. Quantitative Risk Analysis: Method And Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anass BAYAGA

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Recent and past studies (King III report, 2009: 73-75; Stoney 2007;Committee of Sponsoring Organisation-COSO, 2004, Bartell, 2003; Liebenberg and Hoyt, 2003; Reason, 2000; Markowitz 1957 lament that although, the introduction of quantifying risk to enhance degree of objectivity in finance for instance was quite parallel to its development in the manufacturing industry, it is not the same in Higher Education Institution (HEI. In this regard, the objective of the paper was to demonstrate the methods and process of Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA through likelihood of occurrence of risk (phase I. This paper serves as first of a two-phased study, which sampled hundred (100 risk analysts in a University in the greater Eastern Cape Province of South Africa.The analysis of likelihood of occurrence of risk by logistic regression and percentages were conducted to investigate whether there were a significant difference or not between groups (analyst in respect of QRA.The Hosmer and Lemeshow test was non-significant with a chi-square(X2 =8.181; p = 0.300, which indicated that there was a good model fit, since the data did not significantly deviate from the model. The study concluded that to derive an overall likelihood rating that indicated the probability that a potential risk may be exercised within the construct of an associated threat environment, the following governing factors must be considered: (1 threat source motivation and capability (2 nature of the vulnerability (3 existence and effectiveness of current controls (methods and process.

  5. On the quantitative definition of risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaplan, S.; Garrick, B.J.

    1985-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to provide some suggestions and contributions toward a uniform conceptual/linguistic framework for quantifying and making precise the notion of risk. The concepts and definitions the authors present in this connection have shown themselves to be sturdy and serviceable in practical application to a wide variety of risk situations. They have demonstrated in the courtroom and elsewhere the ability to improve communication and greatly diminish the confusion and controversy that often swirls around public decision making involving risk. They hope therefore with this paper to widen the understanding and adoption of this framework, and to that end adopt a leisurely and tutorial place. In particular, they carefully draw a distinction between ''probability'' and ''frequency.'' Then, using this distinction, they return to the idea of risk, and give a ''second-level'' definition (of risk which generalizes the first-level definition) and is large enough and flexible enough to include at least all the aspects and subtleties of risk that have been encountered in the authors' experience

  6. A framework for understanding the quantitative literacy demands of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    We describe our approach to characterizing the quantitative literacy demands in curricula in disciplines, by presenting a framework for analysing aspects of quantitative literacy events in the curriculum. This is useful for helping educators to recognize the demands on students' quantitative literacy (and assumptions about ...

  7. Quantitative Risk Assessment for Enhanced Geothermal Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowry, T. S.; McKenna, S. A.; Hadgu, T.; Kalinina, E.

    2011-12-01

    This study uses a quantitative risk-assessment approach to place the uncertainty associated with enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) development into meaningful context and to identify points of attack that can reduce risk the most. Using the integrated geothermal assessment tool, GT-Mod, we calculate the complimentary cumulative distribution function of the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) that results from uncertainty in a variety of geologic and economic input parameter values. EGS is a developing technology that taps deep (2-10km) geologic heat sources for energy production by "enhancing" non-permeable hot rock through hydraulic stimulation. Despite the promise of EGS, uncertainties in predicting the physical end economic performance of a site has hindered its development. To address this, we apply a quantitative risk-assessment approach that calculates risk as the sum of the consequence, C, multiplied by the range of the probability, ΔP, over all estimations of a given exceedance probability, n, over time, t. The consequence here is defined as the deviation from the best estimate LCOE, which is calculated using the 'best-guess' input parameter values. The analysis assumes a realistic but fictitious EGS site with uncertainties in the exploration success rate, the sub-surface thermal gradient, the reservoir fracture pattern, and the power plant performance. Uncertainty in the exploration, construction, O&M, and drilling costs are also included. The depth to the resource is calculated from the thermal gradient and a target resource temperature of 225 °C. Thermal performance is simulated using the Gringarten analytical solution. The mass flow rate is set to produce 30 MWe of power for the given conditions and is adjusted over time to maintain that rate over the plant lifetime of 30 years. Simulations are conducted using GT-Mod, which dynamically links the physical systems of a geothermal site to simulate, as an integrated, multi-system component, the

  8. Towards understanding the quantitative literacy demands of a first ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    We focus on the analysis of the QL competencies required of a student engaging with text-based learning materials in the curriculum of a first-year integrated human biology/epidemiology/biochemistry course. For the analysis we use a framework, which classifies quantitative material according to a mathematical and ...

  9. A Quantitative Software Risk Assessment Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Alice

    2002-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews a risk assessment model as applied to software development. the presentation uses graphs to demonstrate basic concepts of software reliability. It also discusses the application to the risk model to the software development life cycle.

  10. Information Risk Management: Qualitative or Quantitative? Cross industry lessons from medical and financial fields

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Upasna Saluja

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Enterprises across the world are taking a hard look at their risk management practices. A number of qualitative and quantitative models and approaches are employed by risk practitioners to keep risk under check. As a norm most organizations end up choosing the more flexible, easier to deploy and customize qualitative models of risk assessment. In practice one sees that such models often call upon the practitioners to make qualitative judgments on a relative rating scale which brings in considerable room for errors, biases and subjectivity. On the other hand under the quantitative risk analysis approach, estimation of risk is connected with application of numerical measures of some kind. Medical risk management models lend themselves as ideal candidates for deriving lessons for Information Security Risk Management. We can use this considerably developed understanding of risk management from the medical field especially Survival Analysis towards handling risks that information infrastructures face. Similarly, financial risk management discipline prides itself on perhaps the most quantifiable of models in risk management. Market Risk and Credit Risk Information Security Risk Management can make risk measurement more objective and quantitative by referring to the approach of Credit Risk. During the recent financial crisis many investors and financial institutions lost money or went bankrupt respectively, because they did not apply the basic principles of risk management. Learning from the financial crisis provides some valuable lessons for information risk management.

  11. Combining qualitative and quantitative research approaches in understanding pain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moore, R.

    1996-01-01

    of qualitative research while the advantage of quantified survey data is their reliability. This paper argues for combining qualitative and quantitative methods to improve concurrent validity of results by triangulating interviews, observations or focus group data with short surveys for validation of main......There are many research issues about validity and especially reliability in regards to qualitative research results. Generalizability is brought into question to any population base from which a relatively small number of informants are drawn. Sensitivity to new discoveries is an advantage...

  12. Quantitative Measures of Mineral Supply Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, K. R.

    2009-12-01

    Almost all metals and many non-metallic minerals are traded internationally. An advantage of global mineral markets is that minerals can be obtained from the globally lowest-cost source. For example, one rare-earth element (REE) mine in China, Bayan Obo, is able to supply most of world demand for rare earth elements at a cost significantly less than its main competitors. Concentration of global supplies at a single mine raises significant political risks, illustrated by China’s recent decision to prohibit the export of some REEs and severely limit the export of others. The expected loss of REE supplies will have a significant impact on the cost and production of important national defense technologies and on alternative energy programs. Hybrid vehicles and wind-turbine generators, for example, require REEs for magnets and batteries. Compact fluorescent light bulbs use REE-based phosphors. These recent events raise the general issue of how to measure the degree of supply risk for internationally sourced minerals. Two factors, concentration of supply and political risk, must first be addressed. Concentration of supply can be measured with standard economic tools for measuring industry concentration, using countries rather than firms as the unit of analysis. There are many measures of political risk available. That of the OECD is a measure of a country’s commitment to rule-of-law and enforcement of contracts, as well as political stability. Combining these measures provides a comparative view of mineral supply risk across commodities and identifies several minerals other than REEs that could suddenly become less available. Combined with an assessment of the impact of a reduction in supply, decision makers can use these measures to prioritize risk reduction efforts.

  13. Contract farming risks: A quantitative assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arkins M Kabungo

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study is to identify the key risks facing each of the stakeholders in the export-focused paprika value chain in Zambia. Although a deterministic cost-benefit analysis indicated that this outgrower scheme would have a very satisfactory net present value (NPV, a Monte Carlo analysis using an integrated financial–economic–stakeholder model identifies a number of risk variables that could make this system unsustainable. The major risks include the variability of the real exchange rate in Zambia; the international price of paprika; and the farm yield rates. This analysis points out that irrigation systems are very important for both stabilising and increasing yields. The analysis also shows the limitations of loan financing for such outgrower arrangements when at the sector level it is difficult or even impossible to mitigate the risks from real exchange rate movements and changes in international commodity prices. This micro-level analysis shows how critical real exchange rate management policies are in achieving sustainability of such export-oriented value chains.

  14. From risk analysis to risk control in land transport of dangerous materials. Contribution of quantitative evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, Ph.; Pages, P.

    1985-03-01

    The different approaches of risks and risk management system are described: statistics, potential risk, prevention, information and intervention. Quantitative evaluation is developed: data collection, purposes and methods. Two examples of application are given on risks associated to road transport of propane and of uranium hexafluoride. In conclusion level of risk and practical use of studies on risks are examined. 41 refs [fr

  15. Towards a quantitative understanding of the late Neoproterozoic carbon cycle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjerrum, Christian Jannik; Canfield, Donald Eugene

    2011-01-01

    The cycles of carbon and oxygen at the Earth surface are intimately linked, where the burial of organic carbon into sediments represents a source of oxygen to the surface environment. This coupling is typically quantified through the isotope records of organic and inorganic carbon. Yet, the late...... Neoproterozoic Eon, the time when animals first evolved, experienced wild isotope fluctuations which do not conform to our normal understanding of the carbon cycle and carbon-oxygen coupling. We interpret these fluctuations with a new carbon cycle model and demonstrate that all of the main features...... of the carbonate and organic carbon isotope record can be explained by the release of methane hydrates from an anoxic dissolved organic carbon-rich ocean into an atmosphere containing oxygen levels considerably less than today....

  16. Understanding the nature of nuclear power plant risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Denning, R. S.

    2012-01-01

    This paper describes the evolution of understanding of severe accident consequences from the non-mechanistic assumptions of WASH-740 to WASH-1400, NUREG-1150, SOARCA and today in the interpretation of the consequences of the accident at Fukushima. As opposed to the general perception, the radiological human health consequences to members of the Japanese public from the Fukushima accident will be small despite meltdowns at three reactors and loss of containment integrity. In contrast, the radiation-related societal impacts present a substantial additional economic burden on top of the monumental task of economic recovery from the nonnuclear aspects of the earthquake and tsunami damage. The Fukushima accident provides additional evidence that we have mis-characterized the risk of nuclear power plant accidents to ourselves and to the public. The human health risks are extremely small even to people living next door to a nuclear power plant. The principal risk associated with a nuclear power plant accident involves societal impacts: relocation of people, loss of land use, loss of contaminated products, decontamination costs and the need for replacement power. Although two of the three probabilistic safety goals of the NRC address societal risk, the associated quantitative health objectives in reality only address individual human health risk. This paper describes the types of analysis that would address compliance with the societal goals. (authors)

  17. Quantitative understanding of nanoparticle uptake in watermelon plants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramesh Raliya

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The use of agrochemical-nutrient fertilizers has come under scrutiny in recent years due to concerns that they damage the ecosystem and endanger public health. Nanotechnology offers many possible interventions to mitigate these risks by use of nanofertilizers, nanopesticides, and nanosensors; and concurrently increases profitability, yields, and sustainability within the agricultural industry. Aerosol based foliar delivery of nanoparticles may help to enhance nanoparticle uptake and reduce environmental impacts of chemical fertilizers conventionally applied through a soil route. The purpose of this work was to study uptake, translocation, and accumulation of various gold nanostructures, 30 to 80 nm, delivered by aerosol application to a watermelon plant. Cellular uptake and accumulation of gold nanoparticles were quantified by Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectroscopy (ICP-MS. Observations suggested that nanoparticles could be taken up by the plant through direct penetration and transport through the stomatal opening. Observed translocation of nanoparticles from leaf to root shows evidence that nanoparticles travel by the phloem transport mechanism. Accumulation and transport of nanoparticles depend on nanoparticle shape, application method, and nature of plant tissues.

  18. The Pesticide Risk Beliefs Inventory: A Quantitative Instrument for the Assessment of Beliefs about Pesticide Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    LePrevost, Catherine E.; Blanchard, Margaret R.; Cope, W. Gregory

    2011-01-01

    Recent media attention has focused on the risks that agricultural pesticides pose to the environment and human health; thus, these topics provide focal areas for scientists and science educators to enhance public understanding of basic toxicology concepts. This study details the development of a quantitative inventory to gauge pesticide risk beliefs. The goal of the inventory was to characterize misconceptions and knowledge gaps, as well as expert-like beliefs, concerning pesticide risk. This study describes the development and field testing of the Pesticide Risk Beliefs Inventory with an important target audience: pesticide educators in a southeastern U.S. state. The 19-item, Likert-type inventory was found to be psychometrically sound with a Cronbach’s alpha of 0.780 and to be a valuable tool in capturing pesticide educators’ beliefs about pesticide risk, assessing beliefs in four key categories. The Pesticide Risk Beliefs Inventory could be useful in exploring beliefs about pesticide risks and in guiding efforts to address misconceptions held by a variety of formal and informal science learners, educators, practitioners, the agricultural labor force, and the general public. PMID:21776210

  19. [An Easy-to-Understand Risk Communication].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takei, Yasutaka

    2014-01-01

    A new definition of risk is that risk is the product of a measure of the size of the hazard and its probability of occurrence. We have some mechanisms that would be make too perception of risk in our mind. These mechanisms are including information processing of risk, binary judgment, and risk perception of low probability area. We are required to have bidirectional communication with other person. So, in order to do good risk communication, we have to establish a trust relationship with other person.

  20. Stochastic evaluation of tsunami inundation and quantitative estimating tsunami risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fukutani, Yo; Anawat, Suppasri; Abe, Yoshi; Imamura, Fumihiko

    2014-01-01

    We performed a stochastic evaluation of tsunami inundation by using results of stochastic tsunami hazard assessment at the Soma port in the Tohoku coastal area. Eleven fault zones along the Japan trench were selected as earthquake faults generating tsunamis. The results show that estimated inundation area of return period about 1200 years had good agreement with that in the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. In addition, we evaluated quantitatively tsunami risk for four types of building; a reinforced concrete, a steel, a brick and a wood at the Soma port by combining the results of inundation assessment and tsunami fragility assessment. The results of quantitative estimating risk would reflect properly vulnerability of the buildings, that the wood building has high risk and the reinforced concrete building has low risk. (author)

  1. Modeling Logistic Performance in Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rijgersberg, H.; Tromp, S.O.; Jacxsens, L.; Uyttendaele, M.

    2010-01-01

    In quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA), food safety in the food chain is modeled and simulated. In general, prevalences, concentrations, and numbers of microorganisms in media are investigated in the different steps from farm to fork. The underlying rates and conditions (such as storage

  2. On how to understand and acknowledge risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amundrud, Øystein; Aven, Terje

    2015-01-01

    In Norway two concepts in risk assessment and management – risikoforståelse and risikoerkjennelse – have recently been given much attention, particularly in the oil and gas industry and in societal safety and security contexts. The former concept corresponds quite well to ‘risk understanding’ but the latter does not have an exact counterpart in English – the best term seems to be ‘risk acknowledgement’. The discourse related to these two concepts has given us new general insights concerning the risk concept and its practical use, and the purpose of the present paper is to point to and discuss the main observations made. A main conclusion of the paper is that justified beliefs – what we refer to as knowledge – and the processes of generating these beliefs is an essential feature of both these concepts. - Highlights: • We examine two concepts – ‘risk understanding’ and ‘risk acknowledgement’. • Justified beliefs (knowledge) is an essential feature of both concepts. • Risk assessment is to a large extent about gaining ‘risk understanding’. • ‘Risk acknowledgement’ is of special importance in cases with deep uncertainties

  3. University Students' Understanding of the Concepts Empirical, Theoretical, Qualitative and Quantitative Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murtonen, Mari

    2015-01-01

    University research education in many disciplines is frequently confronted by problems with students' weak level of understanding of research concepts. A mind map technique was used to investigate how students understand central methodological concepts of empirical, theoretical, qualitative and quantitative. The main hypothesis was that some…

  4. Understand Your Risk for Heart Failure

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Thromboembolism Aortic Aneurysm More Causes and Risks for Heart Failure Updated:Feb 13,2018 Who Develops Heart Failure ( ... HF. This content was last reviewed May 2017. Heart Failure • Home • About Heart Failure • Causes and Risks for ...

  5. New developments in quantitative risk assessment of campylobacteriosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Havelaar, Arie; Nauta, Maarten

    Quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) is now broadly accepted as an important decision support tool in food safety risk management. It has been used to support decision making at the global level (Codex Alimentarius, FAO and WHO), at the European level (European Food Safety Authority...... technical information is now available in CRAF- the Campylobacter Risk Assessment Framework (www.rivm.nl/craf). Newly published QMRA studies on broiler meat arrive at similar conclusions. A general conclusion of all models is that highly contaminated carcasses contribute most to risk, and that reducing......), in many contries world wide and by the industry. The human health risks associated with Campylobacter on broiler meat have been the subject of many different risk assessment studies, whereas only a few studies have considered other exposure pathways. Models are now available for all stages of the farm...

  6. Quantitative evaluation of risks for individuals in diagnostic radiology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iinuma, T.A.; Tateno, Yukio; Hashizume, Tadashi

    1980-01-01

    A method to estimate quantitatively risks of individual patients due to exposure to diagnostic radiation (carcinogenetic and genetic effects of radiation) was proposed on the basis of ICRP-26. Carcinogenetic effect of radiation was calculated by multiplying mean dose equivalent for each organ per each radiological examination by shortening of average life-expectancy which was calculated from incidence of fetal carcinoma of each organ, latent period of carcinoma, and incidence period of carcinoma. Genetic effect of radiation was calculated by multiplying mean dose equivalent for gonad per each radiological examination by incidence of genetically severe radiation damages due to parent's exposure and child expectancy rate. Three examples were shown on calculations of risks in the photofluorographic examinations of the stomach and chest, and mammography. The same method of calculation could be applied to the in-vivo nuclear medicine examinations. Further investigation was required to calculate the risks quantitatively for various types of diagnostic procedures using radiation. (Tsunoda, M.)

  7. Understand Your Risk of Heart Attack

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Heart-Health Basics Reducing your risk starts with smart choices. If you smoke, stop. The American Heart ... a Second Heart Attack | Spanish Cardiac Rehab Referral Card | Spanish Heart Attack Warning Signs: Patient sheet | Infographic | ...

  8. Understanding Pesticide Risks: Toxicity and Formulation

    OpenAIRE

    Muntz, Helen; Miller, Rhonda; Alston, Diane

    2016-01-01

    This fact sheet provides information about pesticide risks to human health, primary means of pesticide exposure, standardized measures of pesticide toxicity, pesticide signal words and type of pesticide formulations.

  9. Quantitative risk analysis of oil storage facilities in seismic areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fabbrocino, Giovanni; Iervolino, Iunio; Orlando, Francesca; Salzano, Ernesto

    2005-08-31

    Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) of industrial facilities has to take into account multiple hazards threatening critical equipment. Nevertheless, engineering procedures able to evaluate quantitatively the effect of seismic action are not well established. Indeed, relevant industrial accidents may be triggered by loss of containment following ground shaking or other relevant natural hazards, either directly or through cascade effects ('domino effects'). The issue of integrating structural seismic risk into quantitative probabilistic seismic risk analysis (QpsRA) is addressed in this paper by a representative study case regarding an oil storage plant with a number of atmospheric steel tanks containing flammable substances. Empirical seismic fragility curves and probit functions, properly defined both for building-like and non building-like industrial components, have been crossed with outcomes of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for a test site located in south Italy. Once the seismic failure probabilities have been quantified, consequence analysis has been performed for those events which may be triggered by the loss of containment following seismic action. Results are combined by means of a specific developed code in terms of local risk contour plots, i.e. the contour line for the probability of fatal injures at any point (x, y) in the analysed area. Finally, a comparison with QRA obtained by considering only process-related top events is reported for reference.

  10. Understanding the statistics of small risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siddall, E.

    1983-10-01

    Monte Carlo analyses are used to show what inferences can and cannot be drawn when either a very small number of accidents result from a considerable exposure or where a very small number of people, down to a single individual, are exposed to small added risks. The distinction between relative and absolute uncertainty is illustrated. No new statistical principles are involved

  11. Understanding Credit Risk: A Classroom Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Servatka, Maros; Theocharides, George

    2011-01-01

    This classroom experiment introduces students to the notion of credit risk and expected return, by allowing them to trade on comparable corporate bond issues from two types of markets: investment-grade and high-yield markets. Investment-grade issues have a lower probability of default than high-yield issues and thus provide a lower yield.…

  12. Understand Your Risk for Excessive Blood Clotting

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... travel to the arteries or veins in the brain, heart, kidneys, lungs and limbs, which in turn can cause heart attack, stroke, damage to the body’s organs or even death. Acquired Risk Factors Smoking Overweight and obesity Pregnancy Prolonged ...

  13. Risk prediction, safety analysis and quantitative probability methods - a caveat

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Critchley, O.H.

    1976-01-01

    Views are expressed on the use of quantitative techniques for the determination of value judgements in nuclear safety assessments, hazard evaluation, and risk prediction. Caution is urged when attempts are made to quantify value judgements in the field of nuclear safety. Criteria are given the meaningful application of reliability methods but doubts are expressed about their application to safety analysis, risk prediction and design guidances for experimental or prototype plant. Doubts are also expressed about some concomitant methods of population dose evaluation. The complexities of new designs of nuclear power plants make the problem of safety assessment more difficult but some possible approaches are suggested as alternatives to the quantitative techniques criticized. (U.K.)

  14. N reactor individual risk comparison to quantitative nuclear safety goals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, O.S.; Rainey, T.E.; Zentner, M.D.

    1990-01-01

    A full-scope level III probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) has been completed for N reactor, a US Department of Energy (DOE) production reactor located on the Hanford Reservation in the state of Washington. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) provided the technical leadership for this work, using the state-of-the-art NUREG-1150 methodology developed for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The main objectives of this effort were to assess the risks to the public and to the on-site workers posed by the operation of N reactor, to identify changes to the plant that could reduce the overall risk, and to compare those risks to the proposed NRC and DOE quantitative safety goals. This paper presents the methodology adopted by Westinghouse Hanford Company (WHC) and SNL for individual health risk evaluation, its results, and a comparison to the NRC safety objectives and the DOE nuclear safety guidelines. The N reactor results, are also compared with the five NUREG-1150 nuclear plants. Only internal events are compared here because external events are not yet reported in the current draft NUREG-1150. This is the first full-scope level III PRA study with a detailed quantitative safety goal comparison performed for DOE production reactors

  15. Quantitative, Qualitative and Geospatial Methods to Characterize HIV Risk Environments.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erin E Conners

    Full Text Available Increasingly, 'place', including physical and geographical characteristics as well as social meanings, is recognized as an important factor driving individual and community health risks. This is especially true among marginalized populations in low and middle income countries (LMIC, whose environments may also be more difficult to study using traditional methods. In the NIH-funded longitudinal study Mapa de Salud, we employed a novel approach to exploring the risk environment of female sex workers (FSWs in two Mexico/U.S. border cities, Tijuana and Ciudad Juárez. In this paper we describe the development, implementation, and feasibility of a mix of quantitative and qualitative tools used to capture the HIV risk environments of FSWs in an LMIC setting. The methods were: 1 Participatory mapping; 2 Quantitative interviews; 3 Sex work venue field observation; 4 Time-location-activity diaries; 5 In-depth interviews about daily activity spaces. We found that the mixed-methodology outlined was both feasible to implement and acceptable to participants. These methods can generate geospatial data to assess the role of the environment on drug and sexual risk behaviors among high risk populations. Additionally, the adaptation of existing methods for marginalized populations in resource constrained contexts provides new opportunities for informing public health interventions.

  16. QUANTITATIVE RISK MAPPING OF URBAN GAS PIPELINE NETWORKS USING GIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Azari

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Natural gas is considered an important source of energy in the world. By increasing growth of urbanization, urban gas pipelines which transmit natural gas from transmission pipelines to consumers, will become a dense network. The increase in the density of urban pipelines will influence probability of occurring bad accidents in urban areas. These accidents have a catastrophic effect on people and their property. Within the next few years, risk mapping will become an important component in urban planning and management of large cities in order to decrease the probability of accident and to control them. Therefore, it is important to assess risk values and determine their location on urban map using an appropriate method. In the history of risk analysis of urban natural gas pipeline networks, the pipelines has always been considered one by one and their density in urban area has not been considered. The aim of this study is to determine the effect of several pipelines on the risk value of a specific grid point. This paper outlines a quantitative risk assessment method for analysing the risk of urban natural gas pipeline networks. It consists of two main parts: failure rate calculation where the EGIG historical data are used and fatal length calculation that involves calculation of gas release and fatality rate of consequences. We consider jet fire, fireball and explosion for investigating the consequences of gas pipeline failure. The outcome of this method is an individual risk and is shown as a risk map.

  17. Quantitative Risk Mapping of Urban Gas Pipeline Networks Using GIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azari, P.; Karimi, M.

    2017-09-01

    Natural gas is considered an important source of energy in the world. By increasing growth of urbanization, urban gas pipelines which transmit natural gas from transmission pipelines to consumers, will become a dense network. The increase in the density of urban pipelines will influence probability of occurring bad accidents in urban areas. These accidents have a catastrophic effect on people and their property. Within the next few years, risk mapping will become an important component in urban planning and management of large cities in order to decrease the probability of accident and to control them. Therefore, it is important to assess risk values and determine their location on urban map using an appropriate method. In the history of risk analysis of urban natural gas pipeline networks, the pipelines has always been considered one by one and their density in urban area has not been considered. The aim of this study is to determine the effect of several pipelines on the risk value of a specific grid point. This paper outlines a quantitative risk assessment method for analysing the risk of urban natural gas pipeline networks. It consists of two main parts: failure rate calculation where the EGIG historical data are used and fatal length calculation that involves calculation of gas release and fatality rate of consequences. We consider jet fire, fireball and explosion for investigating the consequences of gas pipeline failure. The outcome of this method is an individual risk and is shown as a risk map.

  18. Do we actually understand how people perceive risk?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bochud, Francois O.

    2016-01-01

    The best way to understand how people perceive radiation risk is to not consider them as fundamentally different from experts, but rather, to consider how we, as experts, naturally react when we are confronted with a risk and how we like to be treated. Do we have to alter our language to make it understandable by members of the public?

  19. Do we actually understand how people perceive risk?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bochud, Francois O.

    2016-11-01

    The best way to understand how people perceive radiation risk is to not consider them as fundamentally different from experts, but rather, to consider how we, as experts, naturally react when we are confronted with a risk and how we like to be treated. Do we have to alter our language to make it understandable by members of the public?.

  20. Designing Graphs that Promote Both Risk Understanding and Behavior Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okan, Yasmina; Stone, Eric R; Bruine de Bruin, Wändi

    2017-10-03

    Graphs show promise for improving communications about different types of risks, including health risks, financial risks, and climate risks. However, graph designs that are effective at meeting one important risk communication goal (promoting risk-avoidant behaviors) can at the same time compromise another key goal (improving risk understanding). We developed and tested simple bar graphs aimed at accomplishing these two goals simultaneously. We manipulated two design features in graphs, namely, whether graphs depicted the number of people affected by a risk and those at risk of harm ("foreground+background") versus only those affected ("foreground-only"), and the presence versus absence of simple numerical labels above bars. Foreground-only displays were associated with larger risk perceptions and risk-avoidant behavior (i.e., willingness to take a drug for heart attack prevention) than foreground+background displays, regardless of the presence of labels. Foreground-only graphs also hindered risk understanding when labels were not present. However, the presence of labels significantly improved understanding, eliminating the detrimental effect of foreground-only displays. Labels also led to more positive user evaluations of the graphs, but did not affect risk-avoidant behavior. Using process modeling we identified mediators (risk perceptions, understanding, user evaluations) that explained the effect of display type on risk-avoidant behavior. Our findings contribute new evidence to the graph design literature: unlike what was previously feared, we demonstrate that it is possible to design foreground-only graphs that promote intentions for behavior change without a detrimental effect on risk understanding. Implications for the design of graphical risk communications and decision support are discussed. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  1. Quantitative risk analysis as a basis for emergency planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yogui, Regiane Tiemi Teruya [Bureau Veritas do Brasil, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Macedo, Eduardo Soares de [Instituto de Pesquisas Tecnologicas (IPT), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Several environmental accidents happened in Brazil and in the world during the 70's and 80's. This strongly motivated the preparation for emergencies in the chemical and petrochemical industries. Environmental accidents affect the environment and the communities that are neighbor to the industrial facilities. The present study aims at subsidizing and providing orientation to develop Emergency Planning from the data obtained on Quantitative Risk Analysis, elaborated according to the Technical Standard P4.261/03 from CETESB (Sao Paulo Environmental Agency). It was observed, during the development of the research, that the data generated on these studies need a complementation and a deeper analysis, so that it is possible to use them on the Emergency Plans. The main issues that were analyzed and discussed on this study were the reevaluation of hazard identification for the emergency plans, the consequences and vulnerability analysis for the response planning, the risk communication, and the preparation to respond to the emergencies of the communities exposed to manageable risks. As a result, the study intends to improve the interpretation and use of the data deriving from the Quantitative Risk Analysis to develop the emergency plans. (author)

  2. Quantitative risk analysis of the pipeline GASDUC III - solutions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silva, Edmilson P.; Bettoni, Izabel Cristina [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    In this work the quantitative risks analysis to the external public of the Pipeline Cabiunas - REDUC (GASDUC III), with 180 km, linking the municipalities of Macae and Duque de Caxias - RJ was performed by the Companies PETROBRAS and ITSEMAP do Brasil. In addition to the large diameter of the pipeline 38 inches and high operation pressure 100 kgf/cm{sup 2} operating with natural gas through several densely populated areas. Initially, the individual risk contours were calculated without considering mitigating measures, obtaining as result the individual risk contour with frequencies of 1x10{sup -06} per year involving sensitive occupations and therefore considered unacceptable when compared with the INEA criterion. The societal risk was calculated for eight densely populated areas and their respective FN-curves situated below the advised limit established by INEA, except for two areas that required the proposal of additional mitigating measures to the reduction of societal risk. Regarding to societal risk, the FN-curve should be below the advised limit presented in the Technical Instruction of INEA. The individual and societal risk were reassessed incorporating some mitigating measures and the results situated below the advised limits established by INEA and PETROBRAS has obtained the license for installation of the pipeline. (author)

  3. Supply chain risk management of newspaper industry: A quantitative study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sartika, Viny; Hisjam, Muh.; Sutopo, Wahyudi

    2018-02-01

    The newspaper industry has several distinctive features that make it stands out from other industries. The strict delivery deadline and zero inventory led to a very short time frame for production and distribution. On the other hand, there is pressure from the newsroom to encourage the start of production as slowly as possible in order to enter the news, while there is pressure from production and distribution to start production as early as possible. Supply chain risk management is needed in determining the best strategy for dealing with possible risks in the newspaper industry. In a case study of a newspaper in Surakarta, quantitative approaches are made to the newspaper supply chain risk management by calculating the expected cost of risk based on the magnitude of the impact and the probability of a risk event. From the calculation results obtained that the five risks with the highest value are newspaper delays to the end customer, broken plate, miss print, down machine, and delayed delivery of newspaper content. Then analyzed appropriate mitigation strategies to cope with such risk events.

  4. Understanding and responding to HIV risk in young South African ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    women (Box 1). The factors fall into several broad categories that describe a network of inter-related risk (Fig. 1). At a structural level, young women at greatest risk of HIV acquisition are those from socioeconomically deprived communities. ARTICLE. Understanding and responding to HIV risk in young. South African women: ...

  5. Approaches to quantitative risk assessment with applications to PP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geiger, G.; Schaefer, A.

    2002-01-01

    Full text: Experience with accidents such as Goiania in Brazil and indications of a considerable number of orphan sources suggest that improved protection would be desirable for some types of radioactive material of wide-spread use such as radiation sources for civil purposes. Regarding large potential health and economic consequences (in particular, if terrorists attacks cannot be excluded), significant costs of preventive actions, and large uncertainties about both the likelihood of occurrence and the potential consequences of PP safety and security incidents, an optimum relationship between preventive and mitigative efforts is likely to be a key issue for successful risk management in this field. Thus, possible violations of physical protection combined with threats of misuse of nuclear materials, including terrorist attack, pose considerable challenges to global security from various perspectives. In view of these challenges, recent advance in applied risk and decision analysis suggests methodological and procedural improvements in quantitative risk assessment, the demarcation of acceptable risk, and risk management. Advance is based on a recently developed model of optimal risky choice suitable for assessing and comparing the cumulative probability distribution functions attached to safety and security risks. Besides quantification of risk (e. g., in economic terms), the standardization of various risk assessment models frequently used in operations research can be approached on this basis. The paper explores possible applications of these improved methods to the safety and security management of nuclear materials, cost efficiency of risk management measures, and the establishment international safety and security standards of PP. Examples will be presented that are based on selected scenarios of misuse involving typical radioactive sources. (author)

  6. Qualitative and quantitative procedures for health risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lohman, P H

    1999-07-16

    Numerous reactive mutagenic electrophiles are present in the environment or are formed in the human body through metabolizing processes. Those electrophiles can directly react with DNA and are considered to be ultimate carcinogens. In the past decades more than 200 in vitro and in vivo genotoxic tests have been described to identify, monitor and characterize the exposure of humans to such agents. When the responses of such genotoxic tests are quantified by a weight-of-evidence analysis, it is found that the intrinsic potency of electrophiles being mutagens does not differ much for the majority of the agents studied. Considering the fact that under normal environmental circumstances human are exposed to low concentration of about a million electrophiles, the relation between exposure to such agents and adverse health effects (e.g., cancer) will become a 'Pandora's box'. For quantitative risk assessment it will be necessary not only to detect whether the agent is genotoxic, but also understand the mechanism of interaction of the agent with the DNA in target cells needs to be taken into account. Examples are given for a limited group of important environmental and carcinogenic agents for which such an approach is feasible. The groups identified are agents that form cross-links with DNA or are mono-alkylating agents that react with base-moieties in the DNA strands. Quantitative hazard ranking of the mutagenic potency of these groups of chemical can be performed and there is ample evidence that such a ranking corresponds with the individual carcinogenic potency of those agents in rodents. Still, in practice, with the exception of certain occupational or accidental exposure situations, these approaches have not be successful in preventing cancer death in the human population. However, this is not only due to the described 'Pandora's box' situation. At least three other factors are described. Firstly, in the industrial world the medical treatment of cancer in patients

  7. Integrating a quantitative risk appraisal in a health impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Adám, Balázs; Molnár, Agnes; Gulis, Gabriel

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Although the quantification of health outcomes in a health impact assessment (HIA) is scarce in practice, it is preferred by policymakers, as it assists various aspects of the decision-making process. This article provides an example of integrating a quantitative risk appraisal...... in an HIA performed for the recently adopted Hungarian anti-smoking policy which introduced a smoking ban in closed public places, workplaces and public transport vehicles, and is one of the most effective measures to decrease smoking-related ill health. METHODS: A comprehensive, prospective HIA...

  8. Comprehensive wellbore stability analysis utilizing Quantitative Risk Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moos, Daniel; Peska, Pavel; Finkbeiner, Thomas [GeoMechanics International, Palo Alto, CA 94303 (United States); Zoback, Mark [Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305 (United States)

    2003-06-01

    A comprehensive geomechanical approach to wellbore stability requires knowledge of rock strength, pore pressure and the magnitude and orientation of the three principal stresses. These parameters are often uncertain, making confidence in deterministic predictions of the risks associated with instabilities during drilling and production difficult to assess. This paper demonstrates the use of Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) to formally account for the uncertainty in each input parameter to assess the probability of achieving a desired degree of wellbore stability at a given mud weight. We also utilize QRA to assess how the uncertainty in each parameter affects the mud weight calculated to maintain stability. In one case study, we illustrate how this approach allows us to compute optimal mud weight windows and casing set points at a deep-water site. In another case study, we demonstrate how to assess the feasibility of underbalanced drilling and open-hole completion of horizontal wells utilizing a comprehensive stability analysis that includes application of QRA.

  9. The government of risk: understanding risk regulation regimes

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Rothstein, Henry; Baldwin, Robert; Hood, Christopher C

    2001-01-01

    ... variously in public administration, social studies of science, and public law- but our destination was the same and so was our reason for undertaking the journey. We wanted to see risk regulation at work in a number of different domains, and to come back not just with a set of travellers' tales but also with a systematic way of compa...

  10. A probabilistic method for computing quantitative risk indexes from medical injuries compensation claims.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalle Carbonare, S; Folli, F; Patrini, E; Giudici, P; Bellazzi, R

    2013-01-01

    The increasing demand of health care services and the complexity of health care delivery require Health Care Organizations (HCOs) to approach clinical risk management through proper methods and tools. An important aspect of risk management is to exploit the analysis of medical injuries compensation claims in order to reduce adverse events and, at the same time, to optimize the costs of health insurance policies. This work provides a probabilistic method to estimate the risk level of a HCO by computing quantitative risk indexes from medical injury compensation claims. Our method is based on the estimate of a loss probability distribution from compensation claims data through parametric and non-parametric modeling and Monte Carlo simulations. The loss distribution can be estimated both on the whole dataset and, thanks to the application of a Bayesian hierarchical model, on stratified data. The approach allows to quantitatively assessing the risk structure of the HCO by analyzing the loss distribution and deriving its expected value and percentiles. We applied the proposed method to 206 cases of injuries with compensation requests collected from 1999 to the first semester of 2007 by the HCO of Lodi, in the Northern part of Italy. We computed the risk indexes taking into account the different clinical departments and the different hospitals involved. The approach proved to be useful to understand the HCO risk structure in terms of frequency, severity, expected and unexpected loss related to adverse events.

  11. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-04-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  12. A comprehensive quantitative assessment of bird extinction risk in Brazil.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nathália Machado

    Full Text Available In an effort to avoid species loss, scientists have focused their efforts on the mechanisms making some species more prone to extinction than others. However, species show different responses to threats given their evolutionary history, behavior, and intrinsic biological features. We used bird biological features and external threats to (1 understand the multiple pathways driving Brazilian bird species to extinction, (2 to investigate if and how extinction risk is geographically structured, and (3 to quantify how much diversity is currently represented inside protected areas. We modeled the extinction risk of 1557 birds using classification trees and evaluated the relative contribution of each biological feature and external threat in predicting extinction risk. We also quantified the proportion of species and their geographic range currently protected by the network of Brazilian protected areas. The optimal classification tree showed different pathways to bird extinction. Habitat conversion was the most important predictor driving extinction risk though other variables, such as geographic range size, type of habitat, hunting or trapping and trophic guild, were also relevant in our models. Species under higher extinction risk were concentrated mainly in the Cerrado Biodiversity Hotspot and were not quite represented inside protected areas, neither in richness nor range. Predictive models could assist conservation actions, and this study could contribute by highlighting the importance of natural history and ecology in these actions.

  13. Quantitative Risk Analysis on the Transport of Dangerous Goods Through a Bi-Directional Road Tunnel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caliendo, Ciro; De Guglielmo, Maria Luisa

    2017-01-01

    A quantitative risk analysis (QRA) regarding dangerous goods vehicles (DGVs) running through road tunnels was set up. Peak hourly traffic volumes (VHP), percentage of heavy goods vehicles (HGVs), and failure of the emergency ventilation system were investigated in order to assess their impact on the risk level. The risk associated with an alternative route running completely in the open air and passing through a highly populated urban area was also evaluated. The results in terms of social risk, as F/N curves, show an increased risk level with an increase the VHP, the percentage of HGVs, and a failure of the emergency ventilation system. The risk curves of the tunnel investigated were found to lie both above and below those of the alternative route running in the open air depending on the type of dangerous goods transported. In particular, risk was found to be greater in the tunnel for two fire scenarios (no explosion). In contrast, the risk level for the exposed population was found to be greater for the alternative route in three possible accident scenarios associated with explosions and toxic releases. Therefore, one should be wary before stating that for the transport of dangerous products an itinerary running completely in the open air might be used if the latter passes through a populated area. The QRA may help decisionmakers both to implement additional safety measures and to understand whether to allow, forbid, or limit circulation of DGVs. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  14. The 'subjective' risk mapping: understanding of a technical risk representation by a professional group

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bertin, H.; Deleuze, G.

    2006-01-01

    The paper presents the application of a particular way to make risk maps, called 'subjective risk mapping'. It has been used to understand how the risk of tube rupture under pressure is understood, defined, and set in perspective with other risks in a professional group working in an industrial plant. (authors)

  15. Overcoming Information Aesthetics: In Defense of a Non-Quantitative Informational Understanding of Artworks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodrigo Hernández-Ramírez

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Attempts to describe aesthetic artefacts through informational models have existed at least since the late 1950s; but they have not been as successful as their proponents expected nor are they popular among art scholars because of their (mostly quantitative nature. However, given how information technology has deeply shifted every aspect of our world, it is fair to ask whether aesthetic value continues to be immune to informational interpretations. This paper discusses the ideas of the late Russian biophysicist, Mikhail Volkenstein concerning art and aesthetic value. It contrasts them with Max Bense’s ‘information aesthetics’, and with contemporary philosophical understandings of information. Overall, this paper shows that an informational but not necessarily quantitative approach serves not only as an effective means to describe our interaction with artworks, but also contributes to explain why purely quantitative models struggle to formalise aesthetic value. Finally, it makes the case that adopting an informational outlook helps overcome the ‘analogue vs digital’ dichotomy by arguing the distinction is epistemological rather than ontological, and therefore the two notions need not be incompatible.

  16. Preparing for Local Adaptation: Understanding Flood Risk Perceptions in Pittsburgh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klima, K.; Wong-Parodi, G.

    2015-12-01

    The City of Pittsburgh experiences numerous floods every year. Aging and insufficient infrastructure contribute to flash floods and to over 20 billion gallons of combined sewer overflows annually, contaminating Pittsburgh's streets, basements, and waterways. Climate change is expected to further exacerbate this problem by causing more intense and more frequent extreme precipitation events in Western Pennsylvania. For a stormwater adaptation plan to be implemented effectively, the City will need informed public support. One way to achieve public understanding and support is through effective communication of the risks, benefits, and uncertainties of local flooding hazards and adaptation methods. In order to develop these communications effectively, the city and its partners will need to know what knowledge and attitudes the residents of Pittsburgh already hold about flood risks. Here we seek to (1) identify Pittsburgh residents' knowledge level, risk perception and attitudes towards flooding and storm water management, and (2) pre-test communications meant to inform and empower Pittsburghers about flood risks and adaptation strategies. We conduct a city-wide survey of 10,000 Pittsburgh renters and homeowners from four life situations: high risk, above poverty; high-risk, below poverty; low risk, above poverty; and low-risk, below poverty. Mixed media recruitment strategies (online and paper-based solicitations guided/organized by community organizations) assist in reaching all subpopulations. Preliminary results suggest participants know what stormwater runoff is, but have a weak understanding of how stormwater interacts with natural and built systems. Furthermore, although participants have a good understanding of the difference between green and gray infrastructure, this does not translate into a change in their willingness to pay for green infrastructure adaptation. This suggests additional communications about flood risks and adaptation strategies.

  17. Agile Development and Software Architecture: Understanding Scale and Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-04-26

    Scrum Team A Scrum Team B Temporary sprint team 26 Agile Development and Software Architecture Robert L. Nord, SSTC, April 2012 © 2012 Carnegie...2012 Carnegie Mellon University Agile Development and Software Architecture: Understanding Scale and Risk Software Engineering Institute Carnegie... Agile Development and Software Architecture Robert L. Nord, SSTC, April 2012 © 2012 Carnegie Mellon University The challenge -1 Tradeoffs and their

  18. Informing people about radiation risks: a review of obstacles to public understanding and effective risk communication

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Covello, V.T.

    1988-01-01

    This paper reviews the literature on informing people about radiation risks. The paper focuses on obstacles to public understanding and effective risk communication. The paper concludes with a set of guidelines for communicating information about radiation risks to the public. The paper also includes an appendix that reviews the literature on one of the most important tools for communicating information about radiation risks: risk comparisons

  19. A Quantitative Risk Analysis Method for the High Hazard Mechanical System in Petroleum and Petrochemical Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Tang

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The high hazard mechanical system (HHMS has three characteristics in the petroleum and petrochemical industry (PPI: high risk, high cost, and high technology requirements. For a HHMS, part, component, and subsystem failures will result in varying degrees and various types of risk consequences, including unexpected downtime, production losses, economic costs, safety accidents, and environmental pollution. Thus, obtaining the quantitative risk level and distribution in a HHMS to control major risk accidents and ensure safe production is of vital importance. However, the structure of the HHMS is more complex than some other systems, making the quantitative risk analysis process more difficult. Additionally, a variety of uncertain risk data hinder the realization of quantitative risk analysis. A few quantitative risk analysis techniques and studies for HHMS exist, especially in the PPI. Therefore, a study on the quantitative risk analysis method for HHMS was completed to obtain the risk level and distribution of high-risk objects. Firstly, Fuzzy Set Theory (FST was applied to address the uncertain risk data for the occurrence probability (OP and consequence severity (CS in the risk analysis process. Secondly, a fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA and a fuzzy event tree analysis (FETA were used to achieve quantitative risk analysis and calculation. Thirdly, a fuzzy bow-tie model (FBTM was established to obtain a quantitative risk assessment result according to the analysis results of the FFTA and FETA. Finally, the feasibility and practicability of the method were verified with a case study on the quantitative risk analysis of one reciprocating pump system (RPS. The quantitative risk analysis method for HHMS can provide more accurate and scientific data support for the development of Asset Integrity Management (AIM systems in the PPI.

  20. Quantitative breast MRI radiomics for cancer risk assessment and the monitoring of high-risk populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendel, Kayla R.; Li, Hui; Giger, Maryellen L.

    2016-03-01

    Breast density is routinely assessed qualitatively in screening mammography. However, it is challenging to quantitatively determine a 3D density from a 2D image such as a mammogram. Furthermore, dynamic contrast enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI) is used more frequently in the screening of high-risk populations. The purpose of our study is to segment parenchyma and to quantitatively determine volumetric breast density on pre-contrast axial DCE-MRI images (i.e., non-contrast) using a semi-automated quantitative approach. In this study, we retroactively examined 3D DCE-MRI images taken for breast cancer screening of a high-risk population. We analyzed 66 cases with ages between 28 and 76 (mean 48.8, standard deviation 10.8). DCE-MRIs were obtained on a Philips 3.0 T scanner. Our semi-automated DCE-MRI algorithm includes: (a) segmentation of breast tissue from non-breast tissue using fuzzy cmeans clustering (b) separation of dense and fatty tissues using Otsu's method, and (c) calculation of volumetric density as the ratio of dense voxels to total breast voxels. We examined the relationship between pre-contrast DCE-MRI density and clinical BI-RADS density obtained from radiology reports, and obtained a statistically significant correlation [Spearman ρ-value of 0.66 (p < 0.0001)]. Our method within precision medicine may be useful for monitoring high-risk populations.

  1. Some approaches to understanding public perceptions of risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greer-Wootten, B.

    1981-01-01

    The debate on nuclear power contains a central set of arguments that can be related, by and large, to differences in the meaning of risk assessment for various concerned publics. At an earlier point in time the arguments largely concerned power production (reactor safety), but now most components of the nuclear fuel cycle are subject to risk perceptions. The strongest levels of public concern over time have focussed on waste management, and in this area illustrates most clearly the gaps between the assessments of the technical community and those of the publics. In order to understand such gaps, a theoretical framework is necessary. The broadest scope for such a framework is found in the I.I.A.S.A. - I.A.E.A. model developed by H.J. Otway, with its three interrelated components of risk estimation (technical), risk evaluation (public) and risk management. The model is described in this paper, as well as a number of empirical studies that derive from it and attempt to measure public perceptions of risks. These studies are then compared to several alternative explanations: the use of public opinion surveys; risk rating tasks based on psychologicl theory; the structure of arguments used by members of the public in qualitative focus group discussions; and a model of local community conflict derived from the content analysis of newspapers. Throughout the discussion, examples are taken wherever possible, from recent Canadian studies, in which the effects of major incidents (such as T.M.I., the Mississauga derailment, the Blind River refinery siting controversy, etc.) become apparent. It is suggested that our understanding of public perceptions of risks cannot be divorced from the set of broad societal concerns evidenced in the I.I.A.S.A. - I.A.E.A. model, and that the crucial elements of this approach are seen in its emphasis on the decision-making process

  2. A Framework for Understanding Uncertainty in Seismic Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foulser-Piggott, Roxane; Bowman, Gary; Hughes, Martin

    2017-10-11

    A better understanding of the uncertainty that exists in models used for seismic risk assessment is critical to improving risk-based decisions pertaining to earthquake safety. Current models estimating the probability of collapse of a building do not consider comprehensively the nature and impact of uncertainty. This article presents a model framework to enhance seismic risk assessment and thus gives decisionmakers a fuller understanding of the nature and limitations of the estimates. This can help ensure that risks are not over- or underestimated and the value of acquiring accurate data is appreciated fully. The methodology presented provides a novel treatment of uncertainties in input variables, their propagation through the model, and their effect on the results. The study presents ranges of possible annual collapse probabilities for different case studies on buildings in different parts of the world, exposed to different levels of seismicity, and with different vulnerabilities. A global sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the significance of uncertain variables. Two key outcomes are (1) that the uncertainty in ground-motion conversion equations has the largest effect on the uncertainty in the calculation of annual collapse probability; and (2) the vulnerability of a building appears to have an effect on the range of annual collapse probabilities produced, i.e., the level of uncertainty in the estimate of annual collapse probability, with less vulnerable buildings having a smaller uncertainty. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  3. Toward the conceptual and quantitative understanding of biosolids conditioning: the gel approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dursun, Derya; Dentel, Steven K

    2009-01-01

    Proper chemical conditioning of wastewater solids is crucial for both operational and economic reasons, but the process has defied satisfactory description to date, in either conceptual or quantitative terms. In this research, a new conceptual model of biosolids structure--likening it to a colloidal gel--was assessed as a means of interpreting conditioning mechanisms. The basis of the gel approach lies in the colligative properties that are altered by lowering of the solvent chemical potential by introducing a solute. Results indicate that inorganic conditioners form precipitates and complexes thus collapsing the gel network and forming particulates, whereas organic polymers lead to heterogeneous collapse with limited diffusion inside the gel. A gel model, based on the osmotic pressure, was found reasonably successful in defining the conditioning efficacy of biosolids. Beyond the model's fundamental value, these results validate a new way of understanding how conditioning and dewatering operate, which should help to improve the selection and optimization of these processes.

  4. Preparing for local adaptation: Understanding flood risk perceptions in Pittsburgh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong-Parodi, G.; Klima, K.

    2016-12-01

    In cities such as Pittsburgh, aging and insufficient infrastructure contributes to flashfloods and numerous combined sewer overflows annually, contaminating streets, basements and waterways. Climate change is expected to further exacerbate this problem by causing more intense and more frequent extreme events in Western Pennsylvania. For a storm water adaptation plan to be implemented successfully, the City of Pittsburgh will need informed public support. One way to achieve public understanding and support is through effective communication of the risks, benefits, and uncertainties of local flooding hazards and adaptation methods. In order to develop risk communications effectively, the City and its partners will need to know what knowledge and attitudes the residents of Pittsburgh already hold about flood risks. To that end we surveyed 1,376 Pittsburgh residents on a variety of flood risk topics through an online or paper survey in Fall 2015. On balance, residents were relatively knowledgeable about storm water and see the City's current infrastructure as being inadequate to meet future risk. Moreover, they see the risk of runoff events as increasing and especially among those who live in hazardous flood areas. Residents expressed interest in having a dedicated fund to deal with runoff events. Among those queried about their willingness-to-pay, those asked to pay $15 were most interested in a dedicated fund and for green infrastructure (as opposed to gray infrastructure) in particular. Finally, while most residents favored green infrastructure in terms of its attractiveness and perceived affects on mitigating climate change many did not see it as effective at addressing flooding as gray infrastructure. We found people understand the risk and are open to doing something about it. However, more guidance and information on appropriate ways to adapt locally in terms that make sense to residents could enhance informed support for adaptation measures.

  5. The application of quantitative risk assessment to microbial food safety risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaykus, L A

    1996-01-01

    Regulatory programs and guidelines for the control of foodborne microbial agents have existed in the U.S. for nearly 100 years. However, increased awareness of the scope and magnitude of foodborne disease, as well as the emergence of previously unrecognized human pathogens transmitted via the foodborne route, have prompted regulatory officials to consider new and improved strategies to reduce the health risks associated with pathogenic microorganisms in foods. Implementation of these proposed strategies will involve definitive costs for a finite level of risk reduction. While regulatory decisions regarding the management of foodborne disease risk have traditionally been done with the aid of the scientific community, a formal conceptual framework for the evaluation of health risks from pathogenic microorganisms in foods is warranted. Quantitative risk assessment (QRA), which is formally defined as the technical assessment of the nature and magnitude of a risk caused by a hazard, provides such a framework. Reproducing microorganisms in foods present a particular challenge to QRA because both their introduction and numbers may be affected by numerous factors within the food chain, with all of these factors representing significant stages in food production, handling, and consumption, in a farm-to-table type of approach. The process of QRA entails four designated phases: (1) hazard identification, (2) exposure assessment, (3) dose-response assessment, and (4) risk characterization. Specific analytical tools are available to accomplish the analyses required for each phase of the QRA. The purpose of this paper is to provide a description of the conceptual framework for quantitative microbial risk assessment within the standard description provided by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) paradigm. Each of the sequential steps in QRA are discussed in detail, providing information on current applications, tools for conducting the analyses, and methodological and/or data

  6. Communicating quantitative risks and benefits in promotional prescription drug labeling or print advertising.

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, Suzanne L; Squiers, Linda B; McCormack, Lauren; Southwell, Brian G; Brouwer, Emily S; Ashok, Mahima; Lux, Linda; Boudewyns, Vanessa; O'Donoghue, Amie; Sullivan, Helen W

    2013-05-01

    Under the Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act, all promotional materials for prescription drugs must strike a fair balance in presentation of risks and benefits. How to best present this information is not clear. We sought to determine if the presentation of quantitative risk and benefit information in drug advertising and labeling influences consumers', patients', and clinicians' information processing, knowledge, and behavior by assessing available empirical evidence. We used PubMed for a literature search, limiting to articles published in English from 1990 forward. Two reviewers independently reviewed the titles and abstracts for inclusion, after which we reviewed the full texts to determine if they communicated risk/benefit information either: (i) numerically (e.g., percent) versus non-numerically (e.g., using text such as "increased risk") or (ii) numerically using different formats (e.g., "25% of patients", "one in four patients", or use of pictographs). We abstracted information from included articles into standardized evidence tables. The research team identified a total of 674 relevant publications, of which 52 met our inclusion criteria. Of these, 37 focused on drugs. Presenting numeric information appears to improve understanding of risks and benefits relative to non-numeric presentation; presenting both numeric and non-numeric information when possible may be best practice. No single specific format or graphical approach emerged as consistently superior. Numeracy and health literacy also deserve more empirical attention as moderators. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  7. Understanding and managing bTB risk: perspectives from Ireland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    More, Simon J; Good, Margaret

    2015-04-17

    There is substantial variation in herd risk for bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in Ireland, with most herds playing little to no role in the ongoing endemic. In infected areas, bTB persistence (affecting one or a group of herds) is a key feature of the infection. In this paper, we present our current understanding and management of bTB risk in Ireland, based on a detailed review of research and policy. There is close interaction between science and policy in Ireland, seeking both to understand and effectively manage bTB risk. Detailed research on bTB persistence is presented, including current understanding of the relative importance of different infection sources, which can include residual infection in cattle and/or re-infection, either from local sources or following cattle introduction. In recent years, there have been three primary drivers for policy change, including scientific advances, ongoing improvements to programme supports, and ongoing programme review. In this review, three key future programme challenges are identified. Although good progress is being made, eradication has not yet been achieved. Firstly, a key question concerns the additional effort that will be required, to move towards final eradication. Secondly, a percentage of non-infected animals are falsely positive to current testing methods. This is an ongoing challenge, given the imperfect specificity of test methods but will become more so, as the positive predictive value falls with reducing bTB prevalence. Finally, there is a need to re-engage with the farming community, so that they play a much greater role in programme ownership. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Quantitative Understanding on the Amplitude Decay Characteristic of the Evanescent Electromagnetic Waves Generated by Seismoelectric Conversion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Hengxin; Huang, Qinghua; Chen, Xiaofei

    2018-03-01

    We conduct numerical simulations and theoretical analyses to quantitatively study the amplitude decay characteristic of the evanescent electromagnetic (EM) waves, which has been neglected in previous studies on the seismoelectric conversion occurring at a porous-porous interface. Time slice snapshots of seismic and EM wave-fields generated by a vertical single force point source in a two-layer porous model show that evanescent EM waves can be induced at a porous-porous interface. The seismic and EM wave-fields computed for a receiver array located in a vertical line nearby the interface are investigated in detail. In addition to the direct and interface-response radiation EM waves, we identify three groups of coseismic EM fields and evanescent EM waves associated with the direct P, refracted SV-P and direct SV waves, respectively. Thereafter, we derive the mathematical expression of the amplitude decay factor of the evanescent EM waves. This mathematical expression is further validated by our numerical simulations. It turns out the amplitude decay of the evanescent EM waves generated by seismoelectric conversion is greatly dependent on the horizontal wavenumber of seismic waves. It is also found the evanescent EM waves have a higher detectability at a lower frequency range. This work provides a better understanding on the EM wave-fields generated by seismoelectric conversion, which probably will help improve the interpretation of the seismoelectric coupling phenomena associated with natural earthquakes or possibly will inspire some new ideas on the application of the seismoelectric coupling effect.

  9. Challenges of Interdisciplinary Research: Reconciling Qualitative and Quantitative Methods for Understanding Human-Landscape Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lach, Denise

    2014-01-01

    While interdisciplinary research is increasingly practiced as a way to transcend the limitations of individual disciplines, our concepts, and methods are primarily rooted in the disciplines that shape the way we think about the world and how we conduct research. While natural and social scientists may share a general understanding of how science is conducted, disciplinary differences in methodologies quickly emerge during interdisciplinary research efforts. This paper briefly introduces and reviews different philosophical underpinnings of quantitative and qualitative methodological approaches and introduces the idea that a pragmatic, realistic approach may allow natural and social scientists to work together productively. While realism assumes that there is a reality that exists independently of our perceptions, the work of scientists is to explore the mechanisms by which actions cause meaningful outcomes and the conditions under which the mechanisms can act. Our task as interdisciplinary researchers is to use the insights of our disciplines in the context of the problem to co-produce an explanation for the variables of interest. Research on qualities necessary for successful interdisciplinary researchers is also discussed along with recent efforts by funding agencies and academia to increase capacities for interdisciplinary research.

  10. Quantitative Risk reduction estimation Tool For Control Systems, Suggested Approach and Research Needs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miles McQueen; Wayne Boyer; Mark Flynn; Sam Alessi

    2006-03-01

    For the past year we have applied a variety of risk assessment technologies to evaluate the risk to critical infrastructure from cyber attacks on control systems. More recently, we identified the need for a stand alone control system risk reduction estimation tool to provide owners and operators of control systems with a more useable, reliable, and credible method for managing the risks from cyber attack. Risk is defined as the probability of a successful attack times the value of the resulting loss, typically measured in lives and dollars. Qualitative and ad hoc techniques for measuring risk do not provide sufficient support for cost benefit analyses associated with cyber security mitigation actions. To address the need for better quantitative risk reduction models we surveyed previous quantitative risk assessment research; evaluated currently available tools; developed new quantitative techniques [17] [18]; implemented a prototype analysis tool to demonstrate how such a tool might be used; used the prototype to test a variety of underlying risk calculational engines (e.g. attack tree, attack graph); and identified technical and research needs. We concluded that significant gaps still exist and difficult research problems remain for quantitatively assessing the risk to control system components and networks, but that a useable quantitative risk reduction estimation tool is not beyond reach.

  11. Understanding operational risk capital approximations: First and second orders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gareth W. Peters

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available We set the context for capital approximation within the framework of the Basel II / III regulatory capital accords. This is particularly topical as the Basel III accord is shortly due to take effect. In this regard, we provide a summary of the role of capital adequacy in the new accord, highlighting along the way the significant loss events that have been attributed to the Operational Risk class that was introduced in the Basel II and III accords. Then we provide a semi-tutorial discussion on the modelling aspects of capital estimation under a Loss Distributional Approach (LDA. Our emphasis is to focuss on the important loss processes with regard to those that contribute most to capital, the so called “high consequence, low frequency" loss processes. This leads us to provide a tutorial overview of heavy tailed loss process modelling in OpRisk under Basel III, with discussion on the implications of such tail assumptions for the severity model in an LDA structure. This provides practitioners with a clear understanding of the features that they may wish to consider when developing OpRisk severity models in practice. From this discussion on heavy tailed severity models, we then develop an understanding of the impact such models have on the right tail asymptotics of the compound loss process and we provide detailed presentation of what are known as first and second order tail approximations for the resulting heavy tailed loss process. From this we develop a tutorial on three key families of risk measures and their equivalent second order asymptotic approximations: Value-at-Risk (Basel III industry standard; Expected Shortfall (ES and the Spectral Risk Measure. These then form the capital approximations. We then provide a few example case studies to illustrate the accuracy of these asymptotic captial approximations, the rate of the convergence of the assymptotic result as a function of the LDA frequency and severity model parameters, the sensitivity

  12. Quantitative analysis of precipitation over Fukushima to understand the wet deposition process in March 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yatagai, A.; Onda, Y.; Watanabe, A.

    2012-04-01

    The Great East Japan Earthquake caused a severe accident at the Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear power plant (NPP), leading to the emission of large amounts of radioactive pollutants into the environment. The transport and diffusion of these radioactive pollutants in the atmosphere caused a disaster for residents in and around Fukushima. Studies have sought to understand the transport, diffusion, and deposition process, and to understand the movement of radioactive pollutants through the soil, vegetation, rivers, and groundwater. However, a detailed simulation and understanding of the distribution of radioactive compounds depend on a simulation of precipitation and on the information on the timing of the emission of these radioactive pollutants from the NPP. Past nuclear expansion studies have demonstrated the importance of wet deposition in distributing pollutants. Hence, this study examined the quantitative precipitation pattern in March 2011 using rain-gauge observations and X-band radar data from Fukushima University. We used the AMeDAS rain-gauge network data of 1) the Japan Meteorological Agency (1273 stations in Japan) and 2) the Water Information System (47 stations in Fukushima prefecture) and 3) the rain-gauge data of the Environmental Information Network of NTT Docomo (30 stations in Fukushima) to construct 0.05-degree mesh data using the same method used to create the APHRODITE daily grid precipitation data (Yatagai et al., 2009). Since some AMeDAS data for the coastal region were lost due to the earthquake, the complementary network of 2) and 3) yielded better precipitation estimates. The data clarified that snowfall was observed on the night of Mar 15 into the morning of Mar 16 throughout Fukushima prefecture. This had an important effect on the radioactive contamination pattern in Fukushima prefecture. The precipitation pattern itself does not show one-on-one correspondence with the contamination pattern. While the pollutants transported northeast of the

  13. Toward Quantitative Understanding of the Atmospheric Heating over the Tibetan Plateau (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koike, T.; Tamura, T.; Rasmy, M.; Seto, R.

    2010-12-01

    contradictory to the Taniguchi and Koike [2007]. The mechanism of the upper tropospheric warming is investigated using the climatology derived from the reanalysis data. Heat budget analysis of the upper troposphere revealed adiabatic subsidence plays an important role for the temperature increase from late April to mid-June. The adiabatic heating is suggested to be derived from the southerly and westerly component of the upper tropospheric circulation. Tamura, Taniguchi and Koike [2009]. To get more quantitative understanding of the atmospheric heating over the Tibetan Plateau, a satellite-based land data assimilation system coupled with a regional atmospheric model was developed.. The result of the system validation for the land surface fluxes and atmospheric parameters shows better consistency with the observed data. The role of land surface on the atmospheric heating can be quantitatively analyzed.

  14. Quantitative risk assessment: an emerging tool for emerging foodborne pathogens.

    OpenAIRE

    Lammerding, A. M.; Paoli, G. M.

    1997-01-01

    New challenges to the safety of the food supply require new strategies for evaluating and managing food safety risks. Changes in pathogens, food preparation, distribution, and consumption, and population immunity have the potential to adversely affect human health. Risk assessment offers a framework for predicting the impact of changes and trends on the provision of safe food. Risk assessment models facilitate the evaluation of active or passive changes in how foods are produced, processed, d...

  15. Quantitative risk analysis in two pipelines operated by TRANSPETRO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia, Claudio B. [PETROBRAS Transporte S/A (TRANSPETRO), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Pinho, Edson [Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro (UFRRJ), Seropedica, RJ (Brazil); Bittencourt, Euclides [Centro Universitario FIB, Salvador , BA (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Transportation risk analysis techniques were used to study two pipelines operated by TRANSPETRO. The Pipeline A is for the simultaneous transportation of diesel, gasoline and LPG and comprises three parts, all of them crossing rural areas. The Pipeline B is for oil transportation and one of its ends is located in an area of a high density population. Both pipelines had their risk studied using the PHAST RISK{sup R} software and the individual risk measures, the only considered measures for license purposes for this type of studies, presented level far below the maximum tolerable levels considered. (author)

  16. Quantitative assessment of infection risk from exposure to waterborne pathogens in urban floodwater

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Man, H.; Van Den Berg, H. H J L; Leenen, E. J T M; Schijven, J. F.; Schets, F. M.; Van Der Vliet, J. C.; Van Knapen, F.; De Roda Husman, A. M.

    Flooding and heavy rainfall have been associated with waterborne infectious disease outbreaks, however, it is unclear to which extent they pose a risk for public health. Here, risks of infection from exposure to urban floodwater were assessed using quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA). To

  17. Understanding high magnitude flood risk: evidence from the past

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacDonald, N.

    2009-04-01

    The average length of gauged river flow records in the UK is ~25 years, which presents a problem in determining flood risk for high-magnitude flood events. Severe floods have been recorded in many UK catchments during the past 10 years, increasing the uncertainty in conventional flood risk estimates based on river flow records. Current uncertainty in flood risk has implications for society (insurance costs), individuals (personal vulnerability) and water resource managers (flood/drought risk). An alternative approach is required which can improve current understanding of the flood frequency/magnitude relationship. Historical documentary accounts are now recognised as a valuable resource when considering the flood frequency/magnitude relationship, but little consideration has been given to the temporal and spatial distribution of these records. Building on previous research based on British rivers (urban centre): Ouse (York), Trent (Nottingham), Tay (Perth), Severn (Shrewsbury), Dee (Chester), Great Ouse (Cambridge), Sussex Ouse (Lewes), Thames (Oxford), Tweed (Kelso) and Tyne (Hexham), this work considers the spatial and temporal distribution of historical flooding. The selected sites provide a network covering many of the largest river catchments in Britain, based on urban centres with long detailed documentary flood histories. The chronologies offer an opportunity to assess long-term patterns of flooding, indirectly determining periods of climatic variability and potentially increased geomorphic activity. This research represents the first coherent large scale analysis undertaken of historical multi-catchment flood chronologies, providing an unparalleled network of sites, permitting analysis of the spatial and temporal distribution of historical flood patterns on a national scale.

  18. A quantitative risk-based model for reasoning over critical system properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feather, M. S.

    2002-01-01

    This position paper suggests the use of a quantitative risk-based model to help support reeasoning and decision making that spans many of the critical properties such as security, safety, survivability, fault tolerance, and real-time.

  19. Using integrated environmental modeling to automate a process-based Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM) organizes multidisciplinary knowledge that explains and predicts environmental-system response to stressors. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is an approach integrating a range of disparate data (fate/transport, exposure, an...

  20. Using Integrated Environmental Modeling to Automate a Process-Based Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (presentation)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM) organizes multidisciplinary knowledge that explains and predicts environmental-system response to stressors. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is an approach integrating a range of disparate data (fate/transport, exposure, and...

  1. Quantitative acid-base physiology using the Stewart model. Does it improve our understanding of what is really wrong?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Derksen, R.; Scheffer, G.J.; Hoeven, J.G. van der

    2006-01-01

    Traditional theories of acid-base balance are based on the Henderson-Hasselbalch equation to calculate proton concentration. The recent revival of quantitative acid-base physiology using the Stewart model has increased our understanding of complicated acid-base disorders, but has also led to several

  2. 77 FR 41985 - Use of Influenza Disease Models To Quantitatively Evaluate the Benefits and Risks of Vaccines: A...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-07-17

    ...] Use of Influenza Disease Models To Quantitatively Evaluate the Benefits and Risks of Vaccines: A... Influenza Disease Models to Quantitatively Evaluate the Benefits and Risks of Vaccines: A Technical Workshop... model to quantitatively estimate the benefits and risks of a hypothetical influenza vaccine, and to seek...

  3. Risk Perception as the Quantitative Parameter of Ethics and Responsibility in Disaster Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kostyuchenko, Yuriy; Movchan, Dmytro

    2014-05-01

    Intensity of impacts of natural disasters is increasing with climate and ecological changes spread. Frequency of disasters is increasing, and recurrence of catastrophes characterizing by essential spatial heterogeneity. Distribution of losses is fundamentally non-linear and reflects complex interrelation of natural, social and environmental factor in the changing world on multi scale range. We faced with new types of risks, which require a comprehensive security concept. Modern understanding of complex security, and complex risk management require analysis of all natural and social phenomena, involvement of all available data, constructing of advanced analytical tools, and transformation of our perception of risk and security issues. Traditional deterministic models used for risk analysis are difficult applicable for analysis of social issues, as well as for analysis of multi scale multi-physics phenomena quantification. Also parametric methods are not absolutely effective because the system analyzed is essentially non-ergodic. The stochastic models of risk analysis are applicable for quantitative analysis of human behavior and risk perception. In framework of risk analysis models the risk perception issues were described. Risk is presented as the superposition of distribution (f(x,y)) and damage functions (p(x,y)): P →δΣ x,yf(x,y)p(x,y). As it was shown risk perception essentially influents to the damage function. Basing on the prospect theory and decision making under uncertainty on cognitive bias and handling of risk, modification of damage function is proposed: p(x,y|α(t)). Modified damage function includes an awareness function α(t), which is the system of risk perception function (rp) and function of education and log-term experience (c) as: α(t) → (c - rp). Education function c(t) describes the trend of education and experience. Risk perception function rp reflects security concept of human behavior, is the basis for prediction of socio-economic and

  4. EFFICIENT QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT OF JUMP PROCESSES: IMPLICATIONS FOR FOOD SAFETY

    OpenAIRE

    Nganje, William E.

    1999-01-01

    This paper develops a dynamic framework for efficient quantitative risk assessment from the simplest general risk, combining three parameters (contamination, exposure, and dose response) in a Kataoka safety-first model and a Poisson probability representing the uncertainty effect or jump processes associated with food safety. Analysis indicates that incorporating jump processes in food safety risk assessment provides more efficient cost/risk tradeoffs. Nevertheless, increased margin of safety...

  5. Information Risk Management: Qualitative or Quantitative? Cross industry lessons from medical and financial fields

    OpenAIRE

    Upasna Saluja; Norbik Bashah Idris

    2012-01-01

    Enterprises across the world are taking a hard look at their risk management practices. A number of qualitative and quantitative models and approaches are employed by risk practitioners to keep risk under check. As a norm most organizations end up choosing the more flexible, easier to deploy and customize qualitative models of risk assessment. In practice one sees that such models often call upon the practitioners to make qualitative judgments on a relative rating scale which brings in consid...

  6. Students perceiving risk: a quantitative assessment on three South ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    education, labour market, family and leisure have significantly affected the way young people experience their .... However, while class, education, gender and other traditional dimensions of social life still affect the kind ..... a mix of, on the one hand, risk students have little control over (e.g. being the victims of violence and ...

  7. A quantitative risk assessment for bovine spongiform encephalopathy in Japan

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kadohira, M.; Stevenson, M.A.; Hogasen, H.R.; Koeijer, de A.A.

    2012-01-01

    A predictive case-cohort model was applied to Japanese data to analyze the interaction between challenge and stability factors for bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) for the period 1985–2020. BSE risk in cattle was estimated as the expected number of detectable cases per year. The model was

  8. Quantitative Risk Assessment of Avian Influenza Virus Infection via Water

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schijven FJ; Teunis PFM; Roda Husman AM de; MGB

    2006-01-01

    Using literature data, daily infection risks of chickens and humans with H5N1 avian influenza virus (AIV) by drinking water consumption were estimated for the Netherlands. A highly infectious virus and less than 4 log10 drinking water treatment (reasonably inefficient) may lead to a high infection

  9. Challenges in the application of quantitative approaches in risk assessment: a case study with di-(2-ethylhexyl)phthalate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gentry, P Robinan; Clewell, Harvey J; Clewell, Rebecca; Campbell, Jerry; Van Landingham, Cynthia; Shipp, Annette M

    2011-08-01

    The constantly evolving science of risk assessment is currently faced with many challenges, not only from the interpretation of the volume of data being generated with new innovative technologies, but also in attempting to quantitatively incorporate this information into understanding potential risk of adverse events in human populations. The objective of the case study described was to use the more recent data for di-(2-ethylhexyl)phthalate (DEHP) to investigate the impact of innovative quantitative approaches on the risk assessment of a compound, specifically as it can be used to move towards the new vision of risk assessment involving the integration of the available toxicological data to understand underlying biological processes. What emerged were several outcomes that demonstrated clearly the importance of the integration of the toxicological data, specifically to understand the biological processes being impacted, because standard statistical modeling approaches may not be adequate to describe the dose-response relationships observed. Alternative approaches demonstrate that a definitive mode of action is not needed to justify the shape of the low-dose region or a threshold, when the integration of the available data assist risk assessors in understanding the shape of the dose-response curve for both noncancer and cancer endpoints. Many of the challenges described as part of this case study would likely be encountered with compounds other than DEHP, especially other receptor-mediated compounds or compounds that "perturb" biological pathways, such as endocrine disruptors. This case study also highlights the importance of communication between risk assessors and the research community to focus on the generation of data most relevant for assessing the potential for chemicals to impact biological systems in the human.

  10. Develop a quantitative understanding of rockmass behaviour near excavations in deep mines, part 1

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Napier, JAL

    1995-12-01

    Full Text Available Control of the rock mass deformation near deep level stopes and the avoidance of damaging incidents of violent rock failure require a fundamental understanding of rock failure mechanisms. Research work to gain this understanding has been undertaken...

  11. Quantitative Risk Modeling of Fire on the International Space Station

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castillo, Theresa; Haught, Megan

    2014-01-01

    The International Space Station (ISS) Program has worked to prevent fire events and to mitigate their impacts should they occur. Hardware is designed to reduce sources of ignition, oxygen systems are designed to control leaking, flammable materials are prevented from flying to ISS whenever possible, the crew is trained in fire response, and fire response equipment improvements are sought out and funded. Fire prevention and mitigation are a top ISS Program priority - however, programmatic resources are limited; thus, risk trades are made to ensure an adequate level of safety is maintained onboard the ISS. In support of these risk trades, the ISS Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) team has modeled the likelihood of fire occurring in the ISS pressurized cabin, a phenomenological event that has never before been probabilistically modeled in a microgravity environment. This paper will discuss the genesis of the ISS PRA fire model, its enhancement in collaboration with fire experts, and the results which have informed ISS programmatic decisions and will continue to be used throughout the life of the program.

  12. Quantitative Health Risk Assessment of Indoor Radon: A Systematic Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ajrouche, R; Ielsch, G; Cléro, E; Roudier, C; Gay, D; Guillevic, J; Laurier, D; Le Tertre, A

    2017-11-01

    Exposure to radon is a well-established cause of lung cancer in the general population. The aim of the present work is to identify and summarize the results of studies that have assessed the risk of lung cancer due to indoor radon, based on a systematic review of relevant published studies. Sixteen studies from 12 different countries met eligibility criteria. Large differences in radon concentrations were noted between and within individual countries, and variety of risk models used to estimate the attributable fraction. Calculating again the attributable fraction in each of these studies using the same model (coefficient of 16% per 100 becquerels per cubic meter (Bq/m3) derived from the European residential radon study), the new attributable fraction of these selected studies ranged from 3% to 17%. Radon remains a public health concern. Information about radon health risks is important and efforts are needed to decrease the associated health problems. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  13. Quantitative structure-activity relationships and ecological risk assessment: an overview of predictive aquatic toxicology research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradbury, S P

    1995-09-01

    In the field of aquatic toxicology, quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs) have developed as scientifically credible tools for predicting the toxicity of chemicals when little or no empirical data are available. A fundamental understanding of toxicological principles has been considered an important component to the acceptance and application of QSAR approaches as biologically relevant in ecological risk assessments. As a consequence, there has been an evolution of QSAR development and application from that of a chemical-class perspective to one that is more consistent with assumptions regarding modes of toxic action. In this review, techniques to assess modes of toxic action from chemical structure are discussed, with consideration that toxicodynamic knowledge bases must be clearly defined with regard to exposure regimes, biological models/endpoints and compounds that adequately span the diversity of chemicals anticipated for future applications. With such knowledge bases, classification systems, including rule-based expert systems, have been established for use in predictive aquatic toxicology applications. The establishment of QSAR techniques that are based on an understanding of toxic mechanisms is needed to provide a link to physiologically based toxicokinetic and toxicodynamic models, which can provide the means to extrapolate adverse effects across species and exposure regimes.

  14. An integrated environmental modeling framework for performing Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Standardized methods are often used to assess the likelihood of a human-health effect from exposure to a specified hazard, and inform opinions and decisions about risk management and communication. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is specifically adapted to detail ...

  15. A suite of models to support the quantitative assessment of spread in pest risk analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Robinet, C.; Kehlenbeck, H.; Werf, van der W.

    2012-01-01

    In the frame of the EU project PRATIQUE (KBBE-2007-212459 Enhancements of pest risk analysis techniques) a suite of models was developed to support the quantitative assessment of spread in pest risk analysis. This dataset contains the model codes (R language) for the four models in the suite. Three

  16. Risk factors for child abuse: quantitative correlational design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ben-Natan, Merav; Sharon, Ira; Barbashov, Polina; Minasyan, Yulia; Hanukayev, Isabella; Kajdan, David; Klein-Kremer, Adi

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this research study is to identify risk factors typical of different types of suspected child abuse reported at a hospital. The study was based on 114 cases of children for whom some type of abuse was reported. Physical abuse was the most frequently reported of all types of suspected child abuse. Most victims of sexual abuse were female and at least half the cases of neglect and physical abuse were attributed to parents. Most cases were identified in the emergency room by nurses. Children older than 10 were more susceptible to physical abuse and neglect. © 2014.

  17. Dating Violence among High-Risk Young Women: A Systematic Review Using Quantitative and Qualitative Methods

    OpenAIRE

    Joly, Lauren E.; Connolly, Jennifer

    2016-01-01

    Our systematic review identified 21 quantitative articles and eight qualitative articles addressing dating violence among high risk young women. The groups of high-risk young women in this review include street-involved, justice-involved, pregnant or parenting, involved with Child Protective Services, and youth diagnosed with a mental health issue. Our meta-analysis of the quantitative articles indicated that 34% (CI = 0.24–0.45) of high-risk young women report that they have been victims of ...

  18. Quantitative risk assessment of continuous liquid spill fires based on spread and burning behaviours

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Jinlong; Huang, Hong; Li, Yuntao

    2017-01-01

    Spill fires usually occur during the storage and transportation of hazardous materials, posing a threat to the people and environment in their immediate proximity. In this paper, a classical Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) method is used to assess the risk of spill fires. In this method, the m......, large-scale experiments of spill fires on water and a glass sheet were conducted to verify the accuracy and application of the model. The results show that the procedure we developed can be used to quantitatively calculate the risk associated with a continuous spill fire....

  19. Laypersons' understanding of relative risk reductions: Randomised cross-sectional study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristiansen Ivar S

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Despite increasing recognition of the importance of involving patients in decisions on preventive healthcare interventions, little is known about how well patients understand and utilise information provided on the relative benefits from these interventions. The aim of this study was to explore whether lay people can discriminate between preventive interventions when effectiveness is presented in terms of relative risk reduction (RRR, and whether such discrimination is influenced by presentation of baseline risk. Methods The study was a randomised cross-sectional interview survey of a representative sample (n = 1,519 of lay people with mean age 59 (range 40–98 years in Denmark. In addition to demographic information, respondents were asked to consider a hypothetical drug treatment to prevent heart attack. Its effectiveness was randomly presented as RRR of 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 or 60 percent, and half of the respondents were presented with quantitative information on the baseline risk of heart attack. The respondents had also been asked whether they were diagnosed with hypercholesterolemia or had experienced a heart attack. Results In total, 873 (58% of the respondents consented to the hypothetical treatment. While 49% accepted the treatment when RRR = 10%, the acceptance rate was 58–60% for RRR>10. There was no significant difference in acceptance rates across respondents irrespective of whether they had been presented with quantitative information on baseline risk or not. Conclusion In this study, lay people's decisions about therapy were only slightly influenced by the magnitude of the effect when it was presented in terms of RRR. The results may indicate that lay people have difficulties in discriminating between levels of effectiveness when they are presented in terms of RRR.

  20. Understanding gaps between the risk perceptions of wildland-urban interface (WUI) residents and wildfire professionals

    Science.gov (United States)

    James R. Meldrum; Patricia A. Champ; Hannah Brenkert-Smith; Travis Warziniack; Christopher M. Barth; Lilia C. Falk

    2015-01-01

    Research across a variety of risk domains finds that the risk perceptions of professionals and the public differ. Such risk perception gaps occur if professionals and the public understand individual risk factors differently or if they aggregate risk factors into overall risk differently. The nature of such divergences, whether based on objective inaccuracies or on...

  1. The impact of risk communications on public understanding

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Connor, R.E.; Bord, R.J.

    1992-01-01

    This paper assesses the impact of different modes of communicating information about risks that are cumulative, uncertain, and long-term (CULT). Do communications that emphasize potential ecological problems have a different impact from messages that discuss health concerns? Is a more emotional style more effective than a traditional standard approach? CULT risks, including those commonly associated with high-level radioactive waste, pose particular problems for risk communicators. nevertheless, the research shows that relatively simple risk communications can effectively lower risk estimates and reduce fears of negative consequences from CULT risks

  2. Current Understanding of the Pathophysiology of Myocardial Fibrosis and Its Quantitative Assessment in Heart Failure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tong Liu

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Myocardial fibrosis is an important part of cardiac remodeling that leads to heart failure and death. Myocardial fibrosis results from increased myofibroblast activity and excessive extracellular matrix deposition. Various cells and molecules are involved in this process, providing targets for potential drug therapies. Currently, the main detection methods of myocardial fibrosis rely on serum markers, cardiac magnetic resonance imaging, and endomyocardial biopsy. This review summarizes our current knowledge regarding the pathophysiology, quantitative assessment, and novel therapeutic strategies of myocardial fibrosis.

  3. Overcoming Information Aesthetics: In Defense of a Non-Quantitative Informational Understanding of Artworks

    OpenAIRE

    Rodrigo Hernández-Ramírez

    2016-01-01

    Attempts to describe aesthetic artefacts through informational models have existed at least since the late 1950s; but they have not been as successful as their proponents expected nor are they popular among art scholars because of their (mostly) quantitative nature. However, given how information technology has deeply shifted every aspect of our world, it is fair to ask whether aesthetic value continues to be immune to informational interpretations. This paper discusses the ideas of the late ...

  4. Web Applications Vulnerability Management using a Quantitative Stochastic Risk Modeling Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergiu SECHEL

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this research is to propose a quantitative risk modeling method that reduces the guess work and uncertainty from the vulnerability and risk assessment activities of web based applications while providing users the flexibility to assess risk according to their risk appetite and tolerance with a high degree of assurance. The research method is based on the research done by the OWASP Foundation on this subject but their risk rating methodology needed de-bugging and updates in different in key areas that are presented in this paper. The modified risk modeling method uses Monte Carlo simulations to model risk characteristics that can’t be determined without guess work and it was tested in vulnerability assessment activities on real production systems and in theory by assigning discrete uniform assumptions to all risk charac-teristics (risk attributes and evaluate the results after 1.5 million rounds of Monte Carlo simu-lations.

  5. Understanding Orbital Uncertainty and Assessing Impact Risk in the Classroom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puckett, Andrew W.; Rector, T. A.

    2008-05-01

    We present a software toolkit enabling the assessment of asteroid impact risk in the undergraduate classroom. This is part of an NSF-funded CCLI grant to develop Research Based Science Education (RBSE) curricula for undergraduate non-majors. These curricula include six projects covering astrometric, photometric, and spectroscopic techniques, which are being tested at multiple schools of varying sizes around the country. The toolkit begins with a Java plugin we have developed for the public-domain image-processor ImageJ. Students perform both astrometry and aperture photometry on research-grade astronomical images, producing output suitable for submission to the Minor Planet Center. They then feed this astrometric record into the freeware orbit-determination software Find_Orb, which computes elements for hundreds of possible orbits by the method of observational Monte Carlo. After format conversion with an online utility we have written, this custom orbit database is fed into the Starry Night planetarium program. Students are then able to visualize the uncertainty region from any desired perspective, and to observe how that region changes with time and/or additional data. Alternatively, the output from the ImageJ plugin can be used directly to measure the lightcurves of minor planets, leading to an improved understanding of their shapes. The recent near-Earth and Mars-crossing asteroid 2007 WD5 presents an ideal scenario for testing this toolkit. All observations fall within 90 days of its 2008 Jan 30 close approach with Mars, and the 1-in-25 impact probability resulting from the inclusion of SDSS precovery observations is sufficiently large to be replicated with a relatively small number of "clone” orbits. Our plugin is the first FITS reader to produce correct time-stamps for minor planet observations found in the SDSS, which observes in drift-scan mode. We report on the first test of this project with undergraduate students at the University of Alaska Anchorage.

  6. Understanding and reducing the risk of supply chain disruptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Graham

    2012-01-01

    Natural disasters can wreck havoc on business operations. When civil unrest swept the UK in August 2011, the effect on business was stark, losing the retail sector £300m in unexpected costs and lost revenues. On the other side of the world, the natural disaster that hit Japan in early 2011 is estimated to have run up costs in the region of £189bn in repairs. Beyond this, the earthquake and its aftermath shattered supply chains, with technology companies expecting delays of up to six months before business could resume fully. It is impossible to predict incidents like these, but businesses can help mitigate disruption in the supply chain by undertaking business continuity management (BCM). A flexible supply chain is essential when it comes to BCM - whether it means being able to cope with altering transport routes at short notice, or finding or replacing a supplier at the last minute. Understanding the supply chain is critical when responding to major impacts that affect supply chains in multiple points - like IT system failures and country-wide fuel strikes. Businesses should carry out detailed business impact assessments and risk assessments right across the end-to-end supply chain and not just at key single points of failure. It is an intensive process that needs dedicated resources and ownership at the highest level. Recognising this, DHL has designed a 10-step process, which it has implemented across its global supply chain business. This paper provides an overview of what a supply chain really looks like, what can cause disruptions and how far up/down the supply chain companies need to go with their BCM planning.

  7. Genetic risk prediction and neurobiological understanding of alcoholism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levey, D F; Le-Niculescu, H; Frank, J; Ayalew, M; Jain, N; Kirlin, B; Learman, R; Winiger, E; Rodd, Z; Shekhar, A; Schork, N; Kiefer, F; Kiefe, F; Wodarz, N; Müller-Myhsok, B; Dahmen, N; Nöthen, M; Sherva, R; Farrer, L; Smith, A H; Kranzler, H R; Rietschel, M; Gelernter, J; Niculescu, A B

    2014-05-20

    -reactive animal model cross-validation. We also tested this small panel of genes in two other independent test cohorts from the United States, one with alcohol dependence (P=0.00012) and one with alcohol abuse (a less severe form of alcoholism; P=0.0094). SNCA by itself was able to separate alcoholics from controls in the alcohol-dependent cohort (P=0.000013) and the alcohol abuse cohort (P=0.023). So did eight other genes from the panel of 11 genes taken individually, albeit to a lesser extent and/or less broadly across cohorts. SNCA, GRM3 and MBP survived strict Bonferroni correction for multiple comparisons. Taken together, these results suggest that our stress-reactive DBP animal model helped to validate and prioritize from the CFG-discovered genes some of the key behaviorally relevant genes for alcoholism. These genes fall into a series of biological pathways involved in signal transduction, transmission of nerve impulse (including myelination) and cocaine addiction. Overall, our work provides leads towards a better understanding of illness, diagnostics and therapeutics, including treatment with omega-3 fatty acids. We also examined the overlap between the top candidate genes for alcoholism from this work and the top candidate genes for bipolar disorder, schizophrenia, anxiety from previous CFG analyses conducted by us, as well as cross-tested genetic risk predictions. This revealed the significant genetic overlap with other major psychiatric disorder domains, providing a basis for comorbidity and dual diagnosis, and placing alcohol use in the broader context of modulating the mental landscape.

  8. Quantitative Metrics and Risk Assessment: The Three Tenets Model of Cybersecurity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeff Hughes

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Progress in operational cybersecurity has been difficult to demonstrate. In spite of the considerable research and development investments made for more than 30 years, many government, industrial, financial, and consumer information systems continue to be successfully attacked and exploited on a routine basis. One of the main reasons that progress has been so meagre is that most technical cybersecurity solutions that have been proposed to-date have been point solutions that fail to address operational tradeoffs, implementation costs, and consequent adversary adaptations across the full spectrum of vulnerabilities. Furthermore, sound prescriptive security principles previously established, such as the Orange Book, have been difficult to apply given current system complexity and acquisition approaches. To address these issues, the authors have developed threat-based descriptive methodologies to more completely identify system vulnerabilities, to quantify the effectiveness of possible protections against those vulnerabilities, and to evaluate operational consequences and tradeoffs of possible protections. This article begins with a discussion of the tradeoffs among seemingly different system security properties such as confidentiality, integrity, and availability. We develop a quantitative framework for understanding these tradeoffs and the issues that arise when those security properties are all in play within an organization. Once security goals and candidate protections are identified, risk/benefit assessments can be performed using a novel multidisciplinary approach, called “QuERIES.” The article ends with a threat-driven quantitative methodology, called “The Three Tenets”, for identifying vulnerabilities and countermeasures in networked cyber-physical systems. The goal of this article is to offer operational guidance, based on the techniques presented here, for informed decision making about cyber-physical system security.

  9. Develop a quantitative understanding of rockmass behaviour near excavations in deep mines, part 2

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Napier, JAL

    1995-12-01

    Full Text Available Modelling of failure processes in rock is an essential adjustment to the analysis of observations of underground rock fracturing. The identification of mechanisms of deformation represents a basic step in understanding of rock mass behaviour...

  10. A quantitative flood risk analysis methodology for urban areas with integration of social research data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escuder-Bueno, I.; Castillo-Rodríguez, J. T.; Zechner, S.; Jöbstl, C.; Perales-Momparler, S.; Petaccia, G.

    2012-09-01

    Risk analysis has become a top priority for authorities and stakeholders in many European countries, with the aim of reducing flooding risk, considering the population's needs and improving risk awareness. Within this context, two methodological pieces have been developed in the period 2009-2011 within the SUFRI project (Sustainable Strategies of Urban Flood Risk Management with non-structural measures to cope with the residual risk, 2nd ERA-Net CRUE Funding Initiative). First, the "SUFRI Methodology for pluvial and river flooding risk assessment in urban areas to inform decision-making" provides a comprehensive and quantitative tool for flood risk analysis. Second, the "Methodology for investigation of risk awareness of the population concerned" presents the basis to estimate current risk from a social perspective and identify tendencies in the way floods are understood by citizens. Outcomes of both methods are integrated in this paper with the aim of informing decision making on non-structural protection measures. The results of two case studies are shown to illustrate practical applications of this developed approach. The main advantage of applying the methodology herein presented consists in providing a quantitative estimation of flooding risk before and after investing in non-structural risk mitigation measures. It can be of great interest for decision makers as it provides rational and solid information.

  11. A quantitative flood risk analysis methodology for urban areas with integration of social research data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Escuder-Bueno

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Risk analysis has become a top priority for authorities and stakeholders in many European countries, with the aim of reducing flooding risk, considering the population's needs and improving risk awareness. Within this context, two methodological pieces have been developed in the period 2009–2011 within the SUFRI project (Sustainable Strategies of Urban Flood Risk Management with non-structural measures to cope with the residual risk, 2nd ERA-Net CRUE Funding Initiative. First, the "SUFRI Methodology for pluvial and river flooding risk assessment in urban areas to inform decision-making" provides a comprehensive and quantitative tool for flood risk analysis. Second, the "Methodology for investigation of risk awareness of the population concerned" presents the basis to estimate current risk from a social perspective and identify tendencies in the way floods are understood by citizens. Outcomes of both methods are integrated in this paper with the aim of informing decision making on non-structural protection measures. The results of two case studies are shown to illustrate practical applications of this developed approach. The main advantage of applying the methodology herein presented consists in providing a quantitative estimation of flooding risk before and after investing in non-structural risk mitigation measures. It can be of great interest for decision makers as it provides rational and solid information.

  12. On how to define, understand and describe risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, Terje

    2010-01-01

    The prevailing perspectives and definitions of risk, at least in the engineering community, are based on probabilities. In this paper we argue that such perspectives and definitions are too narrow. The probability component of the risk concept should be replaced by uncertainty. By jumping directly into probabilities, important uncertainty aspects could easily be overlooked or truncated. In the paper we point at several extended risk definitions, and a formal structure for the various perspectives and definitions is developed. Fundamental concepts such as second-order probabilities and uncertainties are discussed. Examples are provided showing the importance of the choice of risk perspective in a risk assessment and decision-making context. The examples cover offshore operations, security and market price risks.

  13. Human Heuristics: Understanding the Impacts for Pharmaceutical Quality Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Calnan, Nuala

    2011-01-01

    This paper addresses the influence of human heuristics (Biases) on the assessment of risk. A core principle underpinning effective Risk Management is the principle that Risk Management explicitly addresses uncertainty i.e., that it explicitly takes account of uncertainty, the nature of that uncertainty, and how it can be addressed. Heuristics are cognitive behaviours which come into play when we make judgements in the presence of uncertainty. How these behaviours are manifested is still the s...

  14. Land application of manure and Class B biosolids: an occupational and public quantitative microbial risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks, John P; McLaughlin, Michael R; Gerba, Charles P; Pepper, Ian L

    2012-01-01

    Land application is a practical use of municipal Class B biosolids and manure that also promotes soil fertility and productivity. To date, no study exists comparing biosolids to manure microbial risks. This study used quantitative microbial risk assessment to estimate pathogen risks from occupational and public exposures during scenarios involving fomite, soil, crop, and aerosol exposures. Greatest one-time risks were from direct consumption of contaminated soil or exposure to fomites, with one-time risks greater than 10. Recent contamination and high exposures doses increased most risks. and enteric viruses provided the greatest single risks for most scenarios, particularly in the short term. All pathogen risks were decreased with time, 1 d to14 mo between land application and exposure; decreases in risk were typically over six orders of magnitude beyond 30 d. Nearly all risks were reduced to below 10 when using a 4-mo harvest delay for crop consumption. Occupational, more direct risks were greater than indirect public risks, which often occur after time and dilution have reduced pathogen loads to tolerable levels. Comparison of risks by pathogen group confirmed greater bacterial risks from manure, whereas viral risks were exclusive to biosolids. A direct comparison of the two residual types showed that biosolids use had greater risk because of the high infectivity of viruses, whereas the presence of environmentally recalcitrant pathogens such as and maintained manure risk. Direct comparisons of shared pathogens resulted in greater manure risks. Overall, it appears that in the short term, risks were high for both types of residuals, but given treatment, attenuation, and dilution, risks can be reduced to near-insignificant levels. That being said, limited data sets, dose exposures, site-specific inactivation rates, pathogen spikes, environmental change, regrowth, and wildlife will increase risk and uncertainty and remain areas poorly understood. Copyright © by the

  15. Diet and breast cancer: understanding risks and benefits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, Cynthia A

    2012-10-01

    Breast cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer among women in the United States. Extensive research has been completed to evaluate the relationship between dietary factors and breast cancer risk and survival after breast cancer; however, a summary report with clinical inference is needed. Materials and This review summarizes the current epidemiological and clinical trial evidence relating diet to breast cancer incidence, recurrence, survival, and mortality. The review includes emerging epidemiological studies that assess risk within breast cancer subtypes as well as a summary of previous and ongoing dietary intervention trials designed to modify breast cancer risk. The available literature suggests that both low-fat and high-fiber diets may be weakly protective against breast cancer, whereas total energy intake and alcohol appear to be positively associated. Fiber may be weakly protective possibly through modulation of estrogen, whereas fruit and vegetable intake is not clearly associated with risk. Obesity is a risk factor for postmenopausal disease, and adult weight gain should be avoided to reduce risk. In survivors, diet has the greatest potential influence on overall mortality rather than breast cancer-specific events. Diet is modestly associated with breast cancer risk; associations appear more pronounced for postmenopausal disease, and healthy choices after diagnosis and treatment likely support longevity more so than reduced risk for recurrent disease.

  16. Heart Disease in Women: Understand Symptoms and Risk Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Some research has found that if you had pregnancy complications such as high blood pressure or diabetes your children may also have an increased risk of heart disease in the future. Women with inflammatory diseases, such as rheumatoid arthritis or lupus, may also have a higher risk of heart ...

  17. Understanding and responding to HIV risk in young South African ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    reduce HIV acquisition risk in young women, healthcare workers may have a ... However, there are several steps that healthcare workers can take to improve outcomes for this key population at the individual level. These include being able to .... available, lack of healthcare worker expertise or time often means that key risk ...

  18. Quantitative risk analysis for landslides ‒ Examples from Bíldudalur, NW-Iceland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Bell

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Although various methods to carry out quantitative landslide risk analyses are available, applications are still rare and mostly dependent on the occurrence of disasters. In Iceland, two catastrophic snow avalanches killed 34 people in 1995. As a consequence the Ministry of the Environment issued a new regulation on hazard zoning due to snow avalanches and landslides in 2000, which aims to prevent people living or working within the areas most at risk until 2010. The regulation requires to carry out landslide and snow avalanche risk analyses, however, a method to calculate landslide risk adopted to Icelandic conditions is still missing. Therefore, the ultimate goal of this study is to develop such a method for landslides, focussing on debris flows and rock falls and to test it in Bíldudalur, NW-Iceland. Risk analysis, beside risk evaluation and risk management, is part of the holistic concept of risk assessment. Within this study, risk analysis is considered only, focussing on the risks to life. To calculate landslide risk, the spatial and temporal probability of occurrence of potential damaging events, as well as the distribution of the elements at risk in space and time, considering also changing vulnerabilities, must be determined. Within this study, a new raster-based approach is developed. Thus, all existent vector data are transferred into raster data using a resolution of 1m x 1m. The specific attribute data are attributed to the grid cells, resulting in specific raster data layers for each input parameter. The calculation of the landslide risk follows a function of the input parameters hazard, damage potential of the elements at risk, vulnerability, probability of the spatial impact, probability of the temporal impact and probability of the seasonal occurrence. Finally, results are upscaled to a resolution of 20m x 20m and are presented as individual risk to life and object risk to life for each process. Within the quantitative

  19. Dating Violence among High-Risk Young Women: A Systematic Review Using Quantitative and Qualitative Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lauren E. Joly

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Our systematic review identified 21 quantitative articles and eight qualitative articles addressing dating violence among high risk young women. The groups of high-risk young women in this review include street-involved, justice-involved, pregnant or parenting, involved with Child Protective Services, and youth diagnosed with a mental health issue. Our meta-analysis of the quantitative articles indicated that 34% (CI = 0.24–0.45 of high-risk young women report that they have been victims of physical dating violence and 45% (CI = 0.31–0.61 of these young women report perpetrating physical dating violence. Significant moderator variables included questionnaire and timeframe. Meta-synthesis of the qualitative studies revealed that high-risk young women report perpetrating dating violence to gain power and respect, whereas women report becoming victims of dating violence due to increased vulnerability.

  20. Landslide quantitative risk analysis of buildings at the municipal scale based on a rainfall triggering scenario

    OpenAIRE

    Pereira, Susana; Garcia, Ricardo A. C.; Zêzere, José Luís; Oliveira, Sérgio Cruz; Silva, Márcio

    2016-01-01

    A landslide quantitative risk analysis is applied the municipality of Santa Marta de Penagui~ao (N of Portugal) to evaluate the risk to which the buildings are exposed, using a vector data model in GIS. Two landslide subgroups were considered: landslide subgroup 1 (event inventory of landslides occurred on January 200)1; and landslide subgroup 2 (inventoried landslides occurred after the 2001 event until 2010). Seven landslide predisposing factors were weighted and integrate...

  1. Understanding the real risks of changing employee benefit plans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kane, Jon; St Amour, Jeffrey

    2005-01-01

    In an environment of constant change, corporations are looking to alter employee benefits programs to make them more responsive to employee and business needs. A complete risk assessment process is the key to preparing for changes to employee benefits programs by providing employers with an analysis of cost savings against the potential negative ramifications of change. This article outlines the steps involved in a complete review of risk assessment. It then discusses how employers can develop successful change management communication strategies if, after conducting a risk assessment, employers decide to move forward with alterations to their employee benefits programs.

  2. A semi-quantitative model for risk appreciation and risk weighing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bos, Peter M.J.; Boon, Polly E.; van der Voet, Hilko

    2009-01-01

    Risk managers need detailed information on (1) the type of effect, (2) the size (severity) of the expected effect(s) and (3) the fraction of the population at risk to decide on well-balanced risk reduction measures. A previously developed integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) model prov...

  3. A semi-quantitative model for risk appreciation and risk weighing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bos, P.M.J.; Boon, P.E.; Voet, van der H.; Janer, G.; Piersma, A.H.; Bruschweiler, B.; Nielsen, E.; Slob, W.

    2009-01-01

    Risk managers need detailed information on (1) the type of effect, (2) the size (severity) of the expected effect(s) and (3) the fraction of the population at risk to decide on well-balanced risk reduction measures. A previously developed integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) model

  4. Quantitative risk assessment for skin sensitisation : Consideration of a simplified approach for hair dye ingredients

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goebel, C.; Diepgen, T.L.; Krasteva, M.; Schlatter, H.; Nicolas, J.F.; Blomeke, B.; Coenraads, P.J.; Schnuch, A.; Taylor, J.S.; Pungier, J.; Fautz, R.; Fuchs, A.; Schuh, W.; Gerberick, G.F.; Kimber, I.

    2012-01-01

    With the availability of the local lymph node assay, and the ability to evaluate effectively the relative skin sensitizing potency of contact allergens, a model for quantitative-risk-assessment (QRA) has been developed. This QRA process comprises: (a) determination of a

  5. The value of quantitative patient preferences in regulatory benefit-risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oude Egbrink, Mart; IJzerman, Maarten Joost

    2014-01-01

    Quantitative patient preferences are a method to involve patients in regulatory benefit-risk assessment. Assuming preferences can be elicited, there might be multiple advantages to their use. Legal, methodological and procedural issues do however imply that preferences are currently at most part of

  6. Using MFM methodology to generate and define major accident scenarios for quantitative risk assessment studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hua, Xinsheng; Wu, Zongzhi; Lind, Morten

    2017-01-01

    Generating and defining Major Accident Scenarios (MAS) are commonly agreed as the key step for quantitative risk assessment (QRA). The aim of the study is to explore the feasibility of using Multilevel Flow Modeling (MFM) methodology to formulating MAS. Traditionally this is usually done based...

  7. Understanding metal homeostasis in primary cultured neurons. Studies using single neuron subcellular and quantitative metallomics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colvin, Robert A; Lai, Barry; Holmes, William R; Lee, Daewoo

    2015-07-01

    The purpose of this study was to demonstrate how single cell quantitative and subcellular metallomics inform us about both the spatial distribution and cellular mechanisms of metal buffering and homeostasis in primary cultured neurons from embryonic rat brain, which are often used as models of human disease involving metal dyshomeostasis. The present studies utilized synchrotron radiation X-ray fluorescence (SRXRF) and focused primarily on zinc and iron, two abundant metals in neurons that have been implicated in the pathogenesis of neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer's disease and Parkinson's disease. Total single cell contents for calcium, iron, zinc, copper, manganese, and nickel were determined. Resting steady state zinc showed a diffuse distribution in both soma and processes, best defined by the mass profile of the neuron with an enrichment in the nucleus compared with the cytoplasm. Zinc buffering and homeostasis was studied using two modes of cellular zinc loading - transporter and ionophore (pyrithione) mediated. Single neuron zinc contents were shown to statistically significantly increase by either loading method - ionophore: 160 million to 7 billion; transporter 160 million to 280 million atoms per neuronal soma. The newly acquired and buffered zinc still showed a diffuse distribution. Soma and processes have about equal abilities to take up zinc via transporter mediated pathways. Copper levels are distributed diffusely as well, but are relatively higher in the processes relative to zinc levels. Prior studies have observed iron puncta in certain cell types, but others have not. In the present study, iron puncta were characterized in several primary neuronal types. The results show that iron puncta could be found in all neuronal types studied and can account for up to 50% of the total steady state content of iron in neuronal soma. Although other metals can be present in iron puncta, they are predominantly iron containing and do not appear to be

  8. Deeper understanding of non-linear geodetic data inversion using a quantitative sensitivity analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Tiede

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available A quantitative global sensitivity analysis (SA is applied to the non-linear inversion of gravity changes and displacement data which measured in an active volcanic area. The common inversion of this data is based on the solution of the generalized Navier equations which couples both types of observation, gravity and displacement, in a homogeneous half space. The sensitivity analysis has been carried out using Sobol's variance-based approach which produces the total sensitivity indices (TSI, so that all interactions between the unknown input parameters are taken into account. Results of the SA show quite different sensitivities for the measured changes as they relate to the unknown parameters for the east, north and height component, as well as the pressure, radial and mass component of an elastic-gravitational source. The TSIs are implemented into the inversion in order to stabilize the computation of the unknown parameters, which showed wide dispersion ranges in earlier optimization approaches. Samples which were computed using a genetic algorithm (GA optimization are compared to samples in which the results of the global sensitivity analysis are integrated by a reweighting of the cofactor matrix in the objective function. The comparison shows that the implementation of the TSI's can decrease the dispersion rate of unknown input parameters, producing a great improvement the reliable determination of the unknown parameters.

  9. Plasmodium knowlesi transmission: integrating quantitative approaches from epidemiology and ecology to understand malaria as a zoonosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brock, P M; Fornace, K M; Parmiter, M; Cox, J; Drakeley, C J; Ferguson, H M; Kao, R R

    2016-04-01

    The public health threat posed by zoonotic Plasmodium knowlesi appears to be growing: it is increasingly reported across South East Asia, and is the leading cause of malaria in Malaysian Borneo. Plasmodium knowlesi threatens progress towards malaria elimination as aspects of its transmission, such as spillover from wildlife reservoirs and reliance on outdoor-biting vectors, may limit the effectiveness of conventional methods of malaria control. The development of new quantitative approaches that address the ecological complexity of P. knowlesi, particularly through a focus on its primary reservoir hosts, will be required to control it. Here, we review what is known about P. knowlesi transmission, identify key knowledge gaps in the context of current approaches to transmission modelling, and discuss the integration of these approaches with clinical parasitology and geostatistical analysis. We highlight the need to incorporate the influences of fine-scale spatial variation, rapid changes to the landscape, and reservoir population and transmission dynamics. The proposed integrated approach would address the unique challenges posed by malaria as a zoonosis, aid the identification of transmission hotspots, provide insight into the mechanistic links between incidence and land use change and support the design of appropriate interventions.

  10. Early term birth: understanding the health risks to infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craighead, Debra Vela

    2012-01-01

    Early term birth, which occurs at 37 to 38 weeks gestation, is often elective and can carry significant health risks to infants, including short-term and long-term health outcomes. Nurses and other health care providers involved in the care of pregnant women and infants need to be aware of these infants' physiologic vulnerability and potential short- term and long-term care requirements. Nurses can educate patients and raise awareness of the risks associated with early term birth. © 2012 AWHONN.

  11. Environmental (Saprozoic Pathogens of Engineered Water Systems: Understanding Their Ecology for Risk Assessment and Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicholas J. Ashbolt

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Major waterborne (enteric pathogens are relatively well understood and treatment controls are effective when well managed. However, water-based, saprozoic pathogens that grow within engineered water systems (primarily within biofilms/sediments cannot be controlled by water treatment alone prior to entry into water distribution and other engineered water systems. Growth within biofilms or as in the case of Legionella pneumophila, primarily within free-living protozoa feeding on biofilms, results from competitive advantage. Meaning, to understand how to manage water-based pathogen diseases (a sub-set of saprozoses we need to understand the microbial ecology of biofilms; with key factors including biofilm bacterial diversity that influence amoebae hosts and members antagonistic to water-based pathogens, along with impacts from biofilm substratum, water temperature, flow conditions and disinfectant residual—all control variables. Major saprozoic pathogens covering viruses, bacteria, fungi and free-living protozoa are listed, yet today most of the recognized health burden from drinking waters is driven by legionellae, non-tuberculous mycobacteria (NTM and, to a lesser extent, Pseudomonas aeruginosa. In developing best management practices for engineered water systems based on hazard analysis critical control point (HACCP or water safety plan (WSP approaches, multi-factor control strategies, based on quantitative microbial risk assessments need to be developed, to reduce disease from largely opportunistic, water-based pathogens.

  12. Revisiting the 'disaster and development' debate - Toward a broader understanding of macroeconomic risk and resilience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mochizuki, Junko; Mechler, Reinhard; Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan; Keating, Adriana; Williges, Keith

    2014-01-01

    Debate regarding the relationship between socioeconomic development and natural disasters remains at the fore of global discussions, as the potential risk from climate extremes and uncertainty pose an increasing threat to developmental prospects. This study reviews statistical investigations of disaster and development linkages, across topics of macroeconomic growth, public governance and others to identify key challenges to the current approach to macro-level statistical investigation. Both theoretically and qualitatively, disaster is known to affect development through a number of channels: haphazard development, weak institutions, lack of social safety nets and short-termism of our decision-making practices are some of the factors that drive natural disaster risk. Developmental potentials, including the prospects for sustainable and equitable growth, are in turn threatened by such accumulation of disaster risks. However, quantitative evidence regarding these complex causality chains remains contested due to several reasons. A number of theoretical and methodological limitations have been identified, including the use of GDP as a proxy measurement of welfare, issues with natural disaster damage reporting and the adoption of ad hoc model specifications and variables, which render interpretation and cross-comparison of statistical analysis difficult. Additionally, while greater attention is paid to economic and institutional parameters such as GDP, remittance, corruption and public expenditure as opposed to hard-to-quantify yet critical factors such as environmental conditions and social vulnerabilities. These are gaps in our approach that hamper our comprehensive understanding of the disaster-development nexus. Important areas for further research are identified, including recognizing and addressing the data constraints, incorporating sustainability and equity concerns through alternatives to GDP, and finding novel approaches to examining the complex and dynamic

  13. Quantitative prediction of oral cancer risk in patients with oral leukoplakia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yao; Li, Yicheng; Fu, Yue; Liu, Tong; Liu, Xiaoyong; Zhang, Xinyan; Fu, Jie; Guan, Xiaobing; Chen, Tong; Chen, Xiaoxin; Sun, Zheng

    2017-07-11

    Exfoliative cytology has been widely used for early diagnosis of oral squamous cell carcinoma. We have developed an oral cancer risk index using DNA index value to quantitatively assess cancer risk in patients with oral leukoplakia, but with limited success. In order to improve the performance of the risk index, we collected exfoliative cytology, histopathology, and clinical follow-up data from two independent cohorts of normal, leukoplakia and cancer subjects (training set and validation set). Peaks were defined on the basis of first derivatives with positives, and modern machine learning techniques were utilized to build statistical prediction models on the reconstructed data. Random forest was found to be the best model with high sensitivity (100%) and specificity (99.2%). Using the Peaks-Random Forest model, we constructed an index (OCRI2) as a quantitative measurement of cancer risk. Among 11 leukoplakia patients with an OCRI2 over 0.5, 4 (36.4%) developed cancer during follow-up (23 ± 20 months), whereas 3 (5.3%) of 57 leukoplakia patients with an OCRI2 less than 0.5 developed cancer (32 ± 31 months). OCRI2 is better than other methods in predicting oral squamous cell carcinoma during follow-up. In conclusion, we have developed an exfoliative cytology-based method for quantitative prediction of cancer risk in patients with oral leukoplakia.

  14. Understanding the Role of Online Reviews on Customers' Risk Perception

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jing

    2013-01-01

    Customer reviews play an important role in today's online shopping environment. Research into customer reviews has largely focused on the predictive effect of review characteristics on variables such as product sales. However, relatively little attention has been directed towards understanding how reviews impact a customer's decision to purchase a…

  15. Understanding the information needs of people with haematological cancers. A meta-ethnography of quantitative and qualitative research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atherton, K; Young, B; Salmon, P

    2017-11-01

    Clinical practice in haematological oncology often involves difficult diagnostic and treatment decisions. In this context, understanding patients' information needs and the functions that information serves for them is particularly important. We systematically reviewed qualitative and quantitative evidence on haematological oncology patients' information needs to inform how these needs can best be addressed in clinical practice. PsycINFO, Medline and CINAHL Plus electronic databases were searched for relevant empirical papers published from January 2003 to July 2016. Synthesis of the findings drew on meta-ethnography and meta-study. Most quantitative studies used a survey design and indicated that patients are largely content with the information they receive from physicians, however much or little they actually receive, although a minority of patients are not content with information. Qualitative studies suggest that a sense of being in a caring relationship with a physician allows patients to feel content with the information they have been given, whereas patients who lack such a relationship want more information. The qualitative evidence can help explain the lack of association between the amount of information received and contentment with it in the quantitative research. Trusting relationships are integral to helping patients feel that their information needs have been met. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Genetic toxicology at the crossroads-from qualitative hazard evaluation to quantitative risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Paul A; Johnson, George E

    2016-05-01

    Applied genetic toxicology is undergoing a transition from qualitative hazard identification to quantitative dose-response analysis and risk assessment. To facilitate this change, the Health and Environmental Sciences Institute (HESI) Genetic Toxicology Technical Committee (GTTC) sponsored a workshop held in Lancaster, UK on July 10-11, 2014. The event included invited speakers from several institutions and the contents was divided into three themes-1: Point-of-departure Metrics for Quantitative Dose-Response Analysis in Genetic Toxicology; 2: Measurement and Estimation of Exposures for Better Extrapolation to Humans and 3: The Use of Quantitative Approaches in Genetic Toxicology for human health risk assessment (HHRA). A host of pertinent issues were discussed relating to the use of in vitro and in vivo dose-response data, the development of methods for in vitro to in vivo extrapolation and approaches to use in vivo dose-response data to determine human exposure limits for regulatory evaluations and decision-making. This Special Issue, which was inspired by the workshop, contains a series of papers that collectively address topics related to the aforementioned themes. The Issue includes contributions that collectively evaluate, describe and discuss in silico, in vitro, in vivo and statistical approaches that are facilitating the shift from qualitative hazard evaluation to quantitative risk assessment. The use and application of the benchmark dose approach was a central theme in many of the workshop presentations and discussions, and the Special Issue includes several contributions that outline novel applications for the analysis and interpretation of genetic toxicity data. Although the contents of the Special Issue constitutes an important step towards the adoption of quantitative methods for regulatory assessment of genetic toxicity, formal acceptance of quantitative methods for HHRA and regulatory decision-making will require consensus regarding the

  17. Advances in understanding gender difference in cardiometabolic disease risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onat, Altan; Karadeniz, Yusuf; Tusun, Eyyup; Yüksel, Hüsniye; Kaya, Ayşem

    2016-01-01

    Gender differences exist in cardiovascular or metabolic disease risk, beyond the protective effect of estrogens, mostly burdening the postmenopausal female. We aimed to review herein sex differences in pro-inflammatory states, the independence of inflammation from insulin resistance, differences in high-density lipoprotein dysfunction, in gene-environment interactions, and in the influence of current and former smoking on cardiometabolic risk. Sex differences in absorption of long-chain fatty acids are highlighted. Differences exist in the first manifestation of cardiovascular disease, men being more likely to develop coronary heart disease as a first event, compared to women who have cerebrovascular disease or heart failure as a first event. Autoimmune activation resulting from pro-inflammatory states, a fundamental mechanism for numerous chronic diseases in people prone to metabolic syndrome, is much more common in women, and these constitute major determinants. Therapeutic approaches to aspects related to sex difference are briefly reviewed.

  18. Nuclear Power: Understanding the Economic Risks and Uncertainties

    OpenAIRE

    Kessides, Ioannis N.

    2010-01-01

    This paper identifies the fundamental elements and critical research tasks of a comprehensive analysis of the costs and benefits of nuclear power relative to investments in alternative baseload technologies. The proposed framework seeks to: (i) identify the set of expected parameter values under which nuclear power becomes cost competitive relative to alternative generating technologies; (ii) identify the main risk drivers and quantify their impacts on the costs of nuclear power; (iii) estima...

  19. Integrative Understanding of Familial Impulsivity, Early Adversity and Suicide Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabela M. M. Lima

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Impulsivity is a core characteristic of bipolar disorder and it was observed as elevated in individuals with the disorder and in their relatives. Both impulsivity and history of maltreatment are risk factors for suicide attempts, however, these two key variables may not be independent, given the fact that parental impulsivity and associated social context could increase the risk of child maltreatment. In this study it was examined the association between the impulsivity of relatives and child maltreatment taking into consideration the conjoint and unique effects of these two variables on the risk of suicide attempts among the patients.Materials and Methods: Participants of the study consisted of 117 patients diagnosed with bipolar disorder and 25 first-degree relatives. Linear regression model was conducted to describe associations between facets of impulsivity of relatives and levels of child maltreatment reported by patients. The independent associations of suicide attempt history with the dimensions of impulsivity of the patient and maltreatment were tested by multinomial logistic regression.Results: Impulsivity of relatives and, more specifically, inhibitory control can predict the maltreatment of the patient. Inhibitory control and emotional abuse were related, conjointly, to a greater likelihood of having a history of more than one suicide attempt.Discussion: Considering that the impulsivity of relatives predicts child maltreatment, it is possible that a genetically shared impulsivity is an underlying feature associated with the history of multiple suicide attempts. These findings highlight the importance of considering child maltreatment, impulsivity and suicide attempt history in integrative models.

  20. Games for electricity traders: Understanding risk in a deregulated industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dyner, Isaac; Larsen, Erik; Franco, Carlos Jaime

    2009-01-01

    We illustrate and discuss the use of a computer-based learning environment, known as a microworld, for training agents in the Colombian electricity market. As the market operator was concerned with efficiency in the electricity spot market because of an insufficient number of participants, they commissioned a tool that could help potential participants to learn about both market operation as well as the risk management it involved. By making the industry more transparent it was intended that a larger number of traders and companies would participate in the market, making it more efficient. We describe the development and use of this tool, which is based on system dynamics and gaming

  1. Fixing the cracks in the crystal ball: A maturity model for quantitative risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rae, Andrew; Alexander, Rob; McDermid, John

    2014-01-01

    Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) is widely practiced in system safety, but there is insufficient evidence that QRA in general is fit for purpose. Defenders of QRA draw a distinction between poor or misused QRA and correct, appropriately used QRA, but this distinction is only useful if we have robust ways to identify the flaws in an individual QRA. In this paper we present a comprehensive maturity model for QRA which covers all the potential flaws discussed in the risk assessment literature and in a collection of risk assessment peer reviews. We provide initial validation of the completeness and realism of the model. Our risk assessment maturity model provides a way to prioritise both process development within an organisation and empirical research within the QRA community. - Highlights: • Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) is widely practiced, but there is insufficient evidence that it is fit for purpose. • A given QRA may be good, or it may not – we need systematic ways to distinguish this. • We have created a maturity model for QRA which covers all the potential flaws discussed in the risk assessment literature. • We have provided initial validation of the completeness and realism of the model. • The maturity model can also be used to prioritise QRA research discipline-wide

  2. Understanding the risk coming from the radiation exposure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pierzo, J.A.

    2007-01-01

    From 1972, the National Academy has published a series of reports on the biological effects of ionizing radiation (BEIR) in relation to the health effects of the low level radiation. The Environmental Protection Agency, the Department of Energy and the Academy of Sciences of US, began in 1996 the first phase of the BEIR VII report about the health risks associated to the exposure to low level ionizing radiation. The purpose of the first phase of the study is to revise the literature and to decide if enough novel information existed to guarantee the complete study. The National Academies concluded that enough information existed with an appropriate time to carry out the reanalysis. Among the conclusions of BEIR VII are that the current scientific evidence is concordant with the hypothesis of the existence of a linear model without threshold (LSU) in the dose-response relationship among the exposure to ionizing radiation and the cancer development in humans. This implies that very low dose even has the potential of causing deleterious effects in the health, although the risk to low dose is very small. (Author)

  3. [Evaluation of the understanding of sun risk among 241 adolescents].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michel, J L; Magant, E

    2000-04-01

    We investigated adolescent's knowledge of the consequences of sun exposure in order to determine what preventive measures would be effective. A questionnaire was given to 241 adolescents (111 girls and 130 boys) aged 13 to 15 years whose background included all social occupational categories. The questionnaire included 21 open response items. We also interviewed 100 adolescents 3 months after an information session with a 1-hour slide presentation. Eighty-five percent of the girls and 62 p. 100 of the boys said they exposed themselves to sun regularly. For 50 p. 100 of the adolescents, sun exposure occurred between 12 noon and 4 p.m. Less than 9 p. 100 knew that this period corresponds to maximal sunlight intensity and that maximal photoprotection is necessary. Only 47 p. 100 of the girls and 25 p. 100 of the boys regularly used protective skin lotions. Twenty-five percent of the girls used a lotion adapted to their phototype and 8 p. 100 of the boys. Twenty percent of the adolescents questioned were aware that applications should be repeated every 2 hours or after bathing. The cost of skin lotions was never cited as a limiting factor for their use. More than 90 p. 100 of the adolescents gave correct responses at the second test. Our study demonstrated that the risk of sun exposure is largely unrecognized by adolescents and that they have very incomplete information concerning protective measures. An adapted information program would be useful for this risk population.

  4. How lay people understand and make sense of personalized disease risk information

    OpenAIRE

    Damman, Olga C.; Bogaerts, Nina M. M.; van den Haak, Maaike J.; Timmermans, Danielle R. M.

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Background Disease risk calculators are increasingly web‐based, but previous studies have shown that risk information often poses problems for lay users. Objective To examine how lay people understand the result derived from an online cardiometabolic risk calculator. Design A qualitative study was performed, using the risk calculator in the Dutch National Prevention Program for cardiometabolic diseases. The study consisted of three parts: (i) attention: completion of the risk calcula...

  5. A quantitative method for risk assessment of agriculture due to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Zhiqiang; Pan, Zhihua; An, Pingli; Zhang, Jingting; Zhang, Jun; Pan, Yuying; Huang, Lei; Zhao, Hui; Han, Guolin; Wu, Dong; Wang, Jialin; Fan, Dongliang; Gao, Lin; Pan, Xuebiao

    2018-01-01

    Climate change has greatly affected agriculture. Agriculture is facing increasing risks as its sensitivity and vulnerability to climate change. Scientific assessment of climate change-induced agricultural risks could help to actively deal with climate change and ensure food security. However, quantitative assessment of risk is a difficult issue. Here, based on the IPCC assessment reports, a quantitative method for risk assessment of agriculture due to climate change is proposed. Risk is described as the product of the degree of loss and its probability of occurrence. The degree of loss can be expressed by the yield change amplitude. The probability of occurrence can be calculated by the new concept of climate change effect-accumulated frequency (CCEAF). Specific steps of this assessment method are suggested. This method is determined feasible and practical by using the spring wheat in Wuchuan County of Inner Mongolia as a test example. The results show that the fluctuation of spring wheat yield increased with the warming and drying climatic trend in Wuchuan County. The maximum yield decrease and its probability were 3.5 and 64.6%, respectively, for the temperature maximum increase 88.3%, and its risk was 2.2%. The maximum yield decrease and its probability were 14.1 and 56.1%, respectively, for the precipitation maximum decrease 35.2%, and its risk was 7.9%. For the comprehensive impacts of temperature and precipitation, the maximum yield decrease and its probability were 17.6 and 53.4%, respectively, and its risk increased to 9.4%. If we do not adopt appropriate adaptation strategies, the degree of loss from the negative impacts of multiclimatic factors and its probability of occurrence will both increase accordingly, and the risk will also grow obviously.

  6. Understanding bisphosphonates and osteonecrosis of the jaw: uses and risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosini, S; Rosini, S; Bertoldi, I; Frediani, B

    2015-09-01

    Bisphosphonates are chemically stable analogs of pyrophosphate compounds, which have been used to treat multiple disorders of calcium metabolism. Although bisphosphonates have been employed for many years and have demonstrated an excellent safety profile, severe osteonecrosis of the jaw (ONJ) has been described in patients with bone metastases who have been treated with bisphosphonates. In this review we describe the reasons for ONJ and discuss the varying effects of different bisphosphonates on the development of ONJ. Bisphosphonates tend to accumulate in bone, subject to remodeling (such as the jaw) and can affect osteoclast-mediated bone resorption and osteoclast formation, leading to the osteonecrosistic phenomenon. Risk factors for previously -treated patients include the type of bisphosphonates (amino or non-amino), length of treatment and route of administration, the presence of co-morbidities and/or treatment with immune-suppressing drugs, and the presence of other risk factors in addition to the type of intervention required. In oncological patients currently in treatment with receiving intravenous bisphosphonates, greater consideration must be taken depending on the length of treatment already undertaken and concomitant therapies. In these patients, a preventive dental surgery visit and examination of the case would be advisable prior to beginning treatment with bisphosphonates. Practical approaches in the prevention of ONJ include thorough pre-treatment evaluation and performing any preventative procedures (treat periodontal conditions, extract loose teeth, provide protective and endodontic therapies); initiating amino-bisphosphonates only after any gum tissue damage has healed; establishing a regimented check-up schedule and hygieneic precautions the patient can take; and during bisphosphonate treatment conduct any dental procedures in the least invasive manner during bisphosphonate treatment.

  7. Quantitative assessment of cancer risk from exposure to diesel engine emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pepelko, W.E.; Chen, C.

    1993-01-01

    Quantitative estimates of lung cancer risk from exposure to diesel engine emissions were developed using data from three chronic bioassays with Fischer 344 rats. Human target organ dose was estimated with the aid of a comprehensive dosimetry model. The epithelial tissue lining the alveoli and lower airways is the primary target site for induction of lung tumors. Dose was therefore based upon the concentration of carbon particulate matter per unit lung surface area.

  8. A probabilistic quantitative risk assessment model for the long-term work zone crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Qiang; Weng, Jinxian; Qu, Xiaobo

    2010-11-01

    Work zones especially long-term work zones increase traffic conflicts and cause safety problems. Proper casualty risk assessment for a work zone is of importance for both traffic safety engineers and travelers. This paper develops a novel probabilistic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) model to evaluate the casualty risk combining frequency and consequence of all accident scenarios triggered by long-term work zone crashes. The casualty risk is measured by the individual risk and societal risk. The individual risk can be interpreted as the frequency of a driver/passenger being killed or injured, and the societal risk describes the relation between frequency and the number of casualties. The proposed probabilistic QRA model consists of the estimation of work zone crash frequency, an event tree and consequence estimation models. There are seven intermediate events--age (A), crash unit (CU), vehicle type (VT), alcohol (AL), light condition (LC), crash type (CT) and severity (S)--in the event tree. Since the estimated value of probability for some intermediate event may have large uncertainty, the uncertainty can thus be characterized by a random variable. The consequence estimation model takes into account the combination effects of speed and emergency medical service response time (ERT) on the consequence of work zone crash. Finally, a numerical example based on the Southeast Michigan work zone crash data is carried out. The numerical results show that there will be a 62% decrease of individual fatality risk and 44% reduction of individual injury risk if the mean travel speed is slowed down by 20%. In addition, there will be a 5% reduction of individual fatality risk and 0.05% reduction of individual injury risk if ERT is reduced by 20%. In other words, slowing down speed is more effective than reducing ERT in the casualty risk mitigation. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Comprehensive, Quantitative Risk Assessment of CO{sub 2} Geologic Sequestration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lepinski, James

    2013-09-30

    A Quantitative Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (QFMEA) was developed to conduct comprehensive, quantitative risk assessments on CO{sub 2} capture, transportation, and sequestration or use in deep saline aquifers, enhanced oil recovery operations, or enhanced coal bed methane operations. The model identifies and characterizes potential risks; identifies the likely failure modes, causes, effects and methods of detection; lists possible risk prevention and risk mitigation steps; estimates potential damage recovery costs, mitigation costs and costs savings resulting from mitigation; and ranks (prioritizes) risks according to the probability of failure, the severity of failure, the difficulty of early failure detection and the potential for fatalities. The QFMEA model generates the necessary information needed for effective project risk management. Diverse project information can be integrated into a concise, common format that allows comprehensive, quantitative analysis, by a cross-functional team of experts, to determine: What can possibly go wrong? How much will damage recovery cost? How can it be prevented or mitigated? What is the cost savings or benefit of prevention or mitigation? Which risks should be given highest priority for resolution? The QFMEA model can be tailored to specific projects and is applicable to new projects as well as mature projects. The model can be revised and updated as new information comes available. It accepts input from multiple sources, such as literature searches, site characterization, field data, computer simulations, analogues, process influence diagrams, probability density functions, financial analysis models, cost factors, and heuristic best practices manuals, and converts the information into a standardized format in an Excel spreadsheet. Process influence diagrams, geologic models, financial models, cost factors and an insurance schedule were developed to support the QFMEA model. Comprehensive, quantitative risk assessments

  10. A Quantitative Risk Evaluation Model for Network Security Based on Body Temperature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. P. Jiang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available These days, in allusion to the traditional network security risk evaluation model, which have certain limitations for real-time, accuracy, characterization. This paper proposed a quantitative risk evaluation model for network security based on body temperature (QREM-BT, which refers to the mechanism of biological immune system and the imbalance of immune system which can result in body temperature changes, firstly, through the r-contiguous bits nonconstant matching rate algorithm to improve the detection quality of detector and reduce missing rate or false detection rate. Then the dynamic evolution process of the detector was described in detail. And the mechanism of increased antibody concentration, which is made up of activating mature detector and cloning memory detector, is mainly used to assess network risk caused by various species of attacks. Based on these reasons, this paper not only established the equation of antibody concentration increase factor but also put forward the antibody concentration quantitative calculation model. Finally, because the mechanism of antibody concentration change is reasonable and effective, which can effectively reflect the network risk, thus body temperature evaluation model was established in this paper. The simulation results showed that, according to body temperature value, the proposed model has more effective, real time to assess network security risk.

  11. Linkage of DNA Methylation Quantitative Trait Loci to Human Cancer Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Holger Heyn

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Epigenetic regulation and, in particular, DNA methylation have been linked to the underlying genetic sequence. DNA methylation quantitative trait loci (meQTL have been identified through significant associations between the genetic and epigenetic codes in physiological and pathological contexts. We propose that interrogating the interplay between polymorphic alleles and DNA methylation is a powerful method for improving our interpretation of risk alleles identified in genome-wide association studies that otherwise lack mechanistic explanation. We integrated patient cancer risk genotype data and genome-scale DNA methylation profiles of 3,649 primary human tumors, representing 13 solid cancer types. We provide a comprehensive meQTL catalog containing DNA methylation associations for 21% of interrogated cancer risk polymorphisms. Differentially methylated loci harbor previously reported and as-yet-unidentified cancer genes. We suggest that such regulation at the DNA level can provide a considerable amount of new information about the biology of cancer-risk alleles.

  12. Understanding Outdoor Gyms in Public Open Spaces: A Systematic Review and Integrative Synthesis of Qualitative and Quantitative Evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Janet Lok Chun; Lo, Temmy Lee Ting; Ho, Rainbow Tin Hung

    2018-03-25

    (1) Background: An outdoor gym (OG) is environmental infrastructure built in a public open space to promote structured physical activity. The provision of OGs is increasingly seen as an important strategy to realize public health agendas promoting habitual physical activity. A systematic review was conducted to synthesize characteristics of OG and OG users' experiences and perceptions in different cultural contexts; (2) Methods: Online searches of multidisciplinary databases were conducted in health, sport and recreation, and urban planning disciplines. Characteristics of OGs were synthesized by integrating evidence from quantitative, qualitative, and mix-methods studies. The experiences and perceptions of OG users from both qualitative data and survey responses were synthesized through framework analysis; (3) Results: Nine studies met the inclusion criteria (three quantitative studies, four mixed-methods studies, and two pure qualitative studies). None were excluded on the basis of quality. OGs mainly serve adult and older adult population groups. Their size, design, and instructional support vary across studies. The inclusion of functional types of equipment did not have a unified standard. Regarding experiences and perceptions of OGs, five major themes emerged: "health", "social connectedness", "affordable", "support", and "design and promotion"; (4) Conclusions: The OG characteristics synthesis guides the direction in further studies regarding exploration of design parameters. The qualitative and quantitative synthesis revealed that health was a central theme of users' experiences. OGs are also spaces where community-dwellers can find social connectedness while participating in structured physical activity at no cost. Findings from this review create knowledge support for OG as environmental infrastructure for further research and facilitate the understanding of users' experiences and perceptions of OGs in different cultural contexts.

  13. Urban flooding and health risk analysis by use of quantitative microbial risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Signe Tanja

    of ingestion volumes and of dose-response models involves many difficulties, including ethical considerations, they are therefore less manageable than measuring microbial parameters. But when aiming at predicting the risk of infection from exposure to urban floodwater, measurements from flooding episodes...... of variations in the data. Essential limiting factors of urban flooding QMRAs were identified as uncertainty regarding ingestion volumes, the limited use of dose-response models and low numbers of microbial parameters measurements and absent validation of the risk assessments. Because improving knowledge......, and by comparing the model results with an epidemiological study of the same event, the concept of using hydrological models to estimate water quality – and thereby estimate risk – was improved. Another urban flooding risk assessment used average measured concentrations of pathogens in wastewater as inputs...

  14. How lay people understand and make sense of personalized disease risk information

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Damman, Olga C; Bogaerts, Nina M M; van den Haak, Maaike J; Timmermans, Danielle R M

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Disease risk calculators are increasingly web-based, but previous studies have shown that risk information often poses problems for lay users. OBJECTIVE: To examine how lay people understand the result derived from an online cardiometabolic risk calculator. DESIGN: A qualitative study

  15. Discursive junctions in flood risk governance – A comparative understanding in six European countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kaufmann, M.; Wiering, M.A.

    2017-01-01

    Flood risks are managed differently across Europe. While a number of research studies aim to understand these differences, they tend to pay little attention to the social constructionist aspects of flood risk governance, i.e. the meaning that societies give to flood risk and governance. This paper

  16. Biological effect of radiation. Basis for understanding the risk of Fukushima nuclear accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Imaoka, Tatsuhiko

    2011-01-01

    The radionuclide release in the Fukushima Nuclear Accident has induced a tremendous anxiety on possible health effects of low dose radiation. When radiation hits a cell in an organism, it may induce DNA damages which, if not repaired properly, lead to either cell death or genetic mutation. If function of the tissue is lost as a result of cell death, various tissue responses including dysfunction of hematopoietic tissues, sterility and skin responses may occur; these responses are not manifested if the radiation dose is low enough. Genetic mutation is considered to occur, albeit at a low frequency, even if the radiation dose is very small. Cancer is a result of genetic mutation and its probability is considered to rise, albeit slightly, if radiation induces a small amount of additional mutations. These assumptions lead to a notion that there is no 'safety dose' below which radiation does not cause any cancer. On the other hand, the study of atomic bomb survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki provides the most reliable quantitative information on the relationship between radiation dose and accompanying increase in cancer risk. The analysis so far indicates that cancer risk increases by 0.5-fold, compared to a background level, if a human body is exposed to 1 sievert of radiation; at lower doses, the risk is proportional to the dose, but it is impossible to detect cancer risk associated with 100 milli sievert of exposure because of statistical limitations. Although exposure to atomic bomb radiation occurred in a very little instance, the current situation poses a prolonged (i.e., low dose rate) exposure, probably resulting in still lower cancer risk. Still, since current radiation exposure has no benefit, unlike that in medical situations, it is important to reduce it to a level as low as reasonably achievable. I will explain the biological effect of radiation, including its mechanistic basis and effects on the human body, and wish to help the audience to

  17. Smokers' understandings of addiction to nicotine and tobacco: A systematic review and interpretive synthesis of quantitative and qualitative research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfeffer, Daniel; Wigginton, Britta; Gartner, Coral; Morphett, Kylie

    2017-08-29

    Despite the centrality of addiction in academic accounts of smoking, there is little research on smokers' beliefs about addiction to smoking, and the role of nicotine in tobacco dependence. Smokers' perspectives on nicotine's role in addiction are important given the increasing prevalence of non-tobacco nicotine products such as e-cigarettes. We conducted a systematic review of studies investigating smokers' understandings and lay beliefs about addiction to smoking and nicotine. We searched PubMed, Embase, CINAHL and PsycINFO for studies investigating lay beliefs about addiction to smoking. Twenty two quantitative and 24 qualitative studies met inclusion criteria. Critical interpretive synthesis was used to analyse the results. Very few studies asked about addiction to nicotine. Quantitative studies that asked about addiction to smoking showed that most smokers believe that cigarettes are an addictive product, and that they are addicted to smoking. Across qualitative studies, nicotine was not often mentioned by participants. Addiction to smoking was most often characterised as a feeling of "need" for cigarettes resulting from an interplay between physical, mental and social processes. Overall, we found that understandings of smoking were more consistent with the biopsychosocial model of addiction than with more recent models that emphasise the biological aspects of addiction. Researchers should not treat perceptions of addiction to smoking interchangeably with perceptions of addiction to nicotine. More research on lay beliefs about nicotine is required, particularly considering the increasing use of e-cigarettes and their potential for long-term nicotine maintenance for harm reduction. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  18. Understanding Motivations for Abstinence among Adolescent Young Women: Insights into Effective Sexual Risk Reduction Strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long-Middleton, Ellen R.; Burke, Pamela J.; Lawrence, Cheryl A. Cahill; Blanchard, Lauren B.; Amudala, Naomi H.; Rankin, Sally H.

    2012-01-01

    Introduction Pregnancy and sexually transmitted infections pose a significant threat to the health and wellbeing of adolescent young women. Abstinence when practiced provides the most effective means in preventing these problems, yet the perspective of abstinent young women is not well understood. The purpose of the investigation was to characterize female adolescents’ motivations for abstinence. Method As part of a larger, cross-sectional quantitative study investigating predictors of HIV risk reduction behaviors, qualitative responses from study participants who never had intercourse were analyzed in a consensus-based process using content analysis and frequency counts. An urban primary care site in a tertiary care center served as the setting, with adolescent young women ages 15–19 years included in the sample. Results Five broad topic categories emerged from the data that characterized motivations for abstinence in this sample: 1) Personal Readiness, 2) Fear, 3) Beliefs and Values, 4) Partner Worthiness and 5) Lack of Opportunity. Discussion A better understanding of the motivations for abstinence may serve to guide the development of interventions to delay intercourse. PMID:22525893

  19. Local scale multiple quantitative risk assessment and uncertainty evaluation in a densely urbanised area (Brescia, Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Lari

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The study of the interactions between natural and anthropogenic risks is necessary for quantitative risk assessment in areas affected by active natural processes, high population density and strong economic activities.

    We present a multiple quantitative risk assessment on a 420 km2 high risk area (Brescia and surroundings, Lombardy, Northern Italy, for flood, seismic and industrial accident scenarios. Expected economic annual losses are quantified for each scenario and annual exceedance probability-loss curves are calculated. Uncertainty on the input variables is propagated by means of three different methodologies: Monte-Carlo-Simulation, First Order Second Moment, and point estimate.

    Expected losses calculated by means of the three approaches show similar values for the whole study area, about 64 000 000 € for earthquakes, about 10 000 000 € for floods, and about 3000 € for industrial accidents. Locally, expected losses assume quite different values if calculated with the three different approaches, with differences up to 19%.

    The uncertainties on the expected losses and their propagation, performed with the three methods, are compared and discussed in the paper. In some cases, uncertainty reaches significant values (up to almost 50% of the expected loss. This underlines the necessity of including uncertainty in quantitative risk assessment, especially when it is used as a support for territorial planning and decision making. The method is developed thinking at a possible application at a regional-national scale, on the basis of data available in Italy over the national territory.

  20. Approaches to advancing quantitative human health risk assessment of environmental chemicals in the post-genomic era

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiu, Weihsueh A.; Euling, Susan Y.; Scott, Cheryl Siegel; Subramaniam, Ravi P.

    2013-01-01

    The contribution of genomics and associated technologies to human health risk assessment for environmental chemicals has focused largely on elucidating mechanisms of toxicity, as discussed in other articles in this issue. However, there is interest in moving beyond hazard characterization to making more direct impacts on quantitative risk assessment (QRA) — i.e., the determination of toxicity values for setting exposure standards and cleanup values. We propose that the evolution of QRA of environmental chemicals in the post-genomic era will involve three, somewhat overlapping phases in which different types of approaches begin to mature. The initial focus (in Phase I) has been and continues to be on “augmentation” of weight of evidence — using genomic and related technologies qualitatively to increase the confidence in and scientific basis of the results of QRA. Efforts aimed towards “integration” of these data with traditional animal-based approaches, in particular quantitative predictors, or surrogates, for the in vivo toxicity data to which they have been anchored are just beginning to be explored now (in Phase II). In parallel, there is a recognized need for “expansion” of the use of established biomarkers of susceptibility or risk of human diseases and disorders for QRA, particularly for addressing the issues of cumulative assessment and population risk. Ultimately (in Phase III), substantial further advances could be realized by the development of novel molecular and pathway-based biomarkers and statistical and in silico models that build on anticipated progress in understanding the pathways of human diseases and disorders. Such efforts would facilitate a gradual “reorientation” of QRA towards approaches that more directly link environmental exposures to human outcomes

  1. Quantitative risk assessment of hazardous materials transport systems. Rail, road, pipelines and ship

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nicolet-Monnier, M.; Gheorghe, A.V.

    1996-01-01

    The purpose of this volume is to highlight the main procedures for assessing the regional risks resulting from dangerous goods storage, and transportation by means of different technical systems. The information contained in this book is based on a wide range of references and studies. The main procedural steps involved in quantitative risk analysis for transportation systems are supported by relevant methods or risk assessment recognized on an international level. The present book gives an overview of the criteria and guidelines applicable to the implementation of risk assessment and management at different stages. Chapter 1 describes the environmental and safety factors to consider, when performing a transportation risk analysis for a region. Chapter 2 presents risk definitions and the methodology for analysing transportation risks in a complex area. Chapter 3 presents general information about truck accidents and their consequences, and reviews the risk presented by road tunnels. Chapter 4 deals with transportation of hazardous materials by rail. Chapter 5 is more concerned with the assessment of transportation risks on water ways. Chapter 6 furnishes a description of the transport pipelines for natural gas and petroleum products and describes the situation of Switzerland. Chapter 7 presents a compilation of statistical data related to accidents and dangerous goods' movements. Chapter 8 is devoted to the description of data bases and computer support for risk assessment. Chapter 9 deals with integrated approaches for regional risk assessment and safety management with special emphasis to the transportation of hazardous materials. Chapter 10 presents several relevant case studies and miscellaneous information. (author) figs., tabs., refs

  2. Interpersonal violence on college campuses: understanding risk factors and working to find solutions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Littleton, Heather

    2014-10-01

    This commentary discusses the contributions of Drs. Antonia Abbey and Catherine Kaukinen to our understanding of risk factors for sexual and physical aggression among college students. Major contributions of their work are outlined. These include Abbey's contributions to our understanding of trajectories of sexually aggressive behavior among college men, risk factors for engaging in sexual aggression among men, and the role of alcohol in sexual aggression. In addition, Kaukinen's work has increased our understanding of the frequency of violence in college dating relationships as well as the association of violent relationships with health risk behaviors. Directions for future research are also outlined including a need to identify trajectories of violence risk as well as a need to understand the complex interrelationships among health risk behaviors and interpersonal violence. Finally, implications for practice and university policy are discussed, including a focus on the development of effective preventive strategies and proactive responses to violence. © The Author(s) 2014.

  3. Quantitative analysis of visible surface defect risk in tablets during film coating using terahertz pulsed imaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niwa, Masahiro; Hiraishi, Yasuhiro

    2014-01-30

    Tablets are the most common form of solid oral dosage produced by pharmaceutical industries. There are several challenges to successful and consistent tablet manufacturing. One well-known quality issue is visible surface defects, which generally occur due to insufficient physical strength, causing breakage or abrasion during processing, packaging, or shipping. Techniques that allow quantitative evaluation of surface strength and the risk of surface defect would greatly aid in quality control. Here terahertz pulsed imaging (TPI) was employed to evaluate the surface properties of core tablets with visible surface defects of varying severity after film coating. Other analytical methods, such as tensile strength measurements, friability testing, and scanning electron microscopy (SEM), were used to validate TPI results. Tensile strength and friability provided no information on visible surface defect risk, whereas the TPI-derived unique parameter terahertz electric field peak strength (TEFPS) provided spatial distribution of surface density/roughness information on core tablets, which helped in estimating tablet abrasion risk prior to film coating and predicting the location of the defects. TPI also revealed the relationship between surface strength and blending condition and is a nondestructive, quantitative approach to aid formulation development and quality control that can reduce visible surface defect risk in tablets. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Understanding predation risk and individual variation in risk avoidance for threatened boreal caribou.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mumma, Matthew A; Gillingham, Michael P; Johnson, Chris J; Parker, Katherine L

    2017-12-01

    Predation risk is a driver of species' distributions. Animals can increase risk avoidance in response to fluctuations in predation risk, but questions remain regarding individual variability and the capacity to respond to changes in spatial risk across human-altered landscapes. In northeast British Columbia, Canada, boreal caribou populations declined as roads and seismic lines have increased, which are theorized to increase gray wolf predation. Our goal was to model risk and to evaluate individual variability and the development of risk perception by examining individual risk avoidance in response to reproductive status and age. We used locations from collared caribou and wolves to identify landscape features associated with the risk of a potential wolf-caribou encounter and risk of being killed given an encounter. We built resource selection functions to estimate individual responses to risk. We used general linear regressions to evaluate individual risk and linear feature avoidance as a function of age and reproductive status (calf or no calf). Linear features increased the risk of encounter. Older caribou and caribou with calves demonstrated stronger avoidance of the risk of encounter and roads, but weaker avoidance in late summer to the risk of being killed relative to younger and calf-less individuals. Mechanisms explaining the inverse relationships between the risk of encounter and risk of being killed are uncertain, but it is conceivable that caribou learn to avoid the risk of encounter and roads. Responses by females with vulnerable calves to the risk of encounter and risk of being killed might be explained by a trade-off between these two risk types and a prioritization on the risk of encounter. Despite the capacity to alter their responses to risk, the global decline in Rangifer populations (caribou and wild reindeer) suggests these behaviors are insufficient to mitigate the impacts of anthropogenic disturbances.

  5. A quantitative approach for integrating multiple lines of evidence for the evaluation of environmental health risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jerome J. Schleier III

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Decision analysis often considers multiple lines of evidence during the decision making process. Researchers and government agencies have advocated for quantitative weight-of-evidence approaches in which multiple lines of evidence can be considered when estimating risk. Therefore, we utilized Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo to integrate several human-health risk assessment, biomonitoring, and epidemiology studies that have been conducted for two common insecticides (malathion and permethrin used for adult mosquito management to generate an overall estimate of risk quotient (RQ. The utility of the Bayesian inference for risk management is that the estimated risk represents a probability distribution from which the probability of exceeding a threshold can be estimated. The mean RQs after all studies were incorporated were 0.4386, with a variance of 0.0163 for malathion and 0.3281 with a variance of 0.0083 for permethrin. After taking into account all of the evidence available on the risks of ULV insecticides, the probability that malathion or permethrin would exceed a level of concern was less than 0.0001. Bayesian estimates can substantially improve decisions by allowing decision makers to estimate the probability that a risk will exceed a level of concern by considering seemingly disparate lines of evidence.

  6. Local people's understanding of risk from civil nuclear power in the Chinese context.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Xiang

    2014-04-01

    This paper analyses how people understand civil nuclear risk in the local context in China. The findings of the paper are based on six months of fieldwork research on a potential inland nuclear power project in Dapu townland in 2007 and 2008. Understanding varies greatly depending on local context, with economic, geographic and social factors influencing the way people view risks and benefits. I argue that when local people do not have enough 'scientific knowledge' to understand risk from nuclear power, they can still use their experience of everyday life to reflect rationally on the risks and benefits that they face. I conclude that when local people trust in nuclear technology and 'the government', and are unaware of nuclear risk it is partly because of their over-dependence on institutions and experts. However, despite their lack of agency, local people rationally calculate risk and benefit in accordance with their social identity and geographical location.

  7. Understanding Risk: Implications for Tracking High-Risk Infants and Making Early Service Delivery Decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jens, Kenneth G.; Gordon, Betty N.

    1991-01-01

    This paper examines conceptualizations of risk, methods for identifying and tracking infants and children at risk, models developed for identifying and tracking these children, the concepts of vulnerability and resiliency as they relate to risk, and implications of the ways in which risk is defined and tracking programs are developed. (Author/JDD)

  8. Prediction of low-risk breast cancer using quantitative DCE-MRI and its pathological basis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Tingting; Zhang, Lin; Xu, Hong; Kang, Sifeng; Xu, Yali; Luo, Xiaoyu; Hua, Ting; Tang, Guangyu

    2017-12-26

    This study aimed to evaluate the difference of mass in dynamic contrast enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI) characteristics between low-risk and non-low-risk breast cancers and to explore the possible pathological basis. Approval from the institutional review board and informed consent were acquired for this study. The MR images of 104 patients with pathologically proven breast cancer (104 lesions) were prospectively analyzed. All of included patients were Chinese woman. The DCE-MRI morphologic findings, apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) values, quantitative DCE-MRI parameters, and pathological biomarkers between the two subtypes of breast cancer were compared. The quantitative DCE-MRI parameters and ADC values were added to the morphologic features in multivariate models to evaluate diagnostic performance in predicting low-risk breast cancer. The values were further subjected to the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Low-risk tumors showed significantly lower K trans and K e p value s ( t = 2.065, P = 0.043 and t = 3.548, P = 0.001, respectively) and higher ADC value ( t = 4.713, P = 0.000) than non-low-risk breast cancers. Our results revealed no significant differences in clinic data and conventional imaging findings between the two breast cancer subtypes. Adding the quantitative DCE-MRI parameters and ADC values to conventional MRI improved the diagnostic performance of MRI: The area under the ROC improved from 0.63 to 0.91. Low-risk breast cancers showed significantly lower matrix metalloproteinase (MMP)-2 expression ( P = 0.000), lower MMP-9 expression ( P = 0.001), and lower microvessel density (MVD) values ( P = 0.008) compared with non-low-risk breast cancers. K trans and K e p values were positively correlated with pathological biomarkers. The ADC value showed a significant inverse correlation with pathological biomarkers. The prediction parameter using K trans , K ep , and ADC obtained on DCE-MRI and diffusion

  9. Laypersons' understanding of relative risk reductions: randomised cross-sectional study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sorensen, Lene; Gyrd-Hansen, Dorte; Kristiansen, Ivar S

    2008-01-01

    , and half of the respondents were presented with quantitative information on the baseline risk of heart attack. The respondents had also been asked whether they were diagnosed with hypercholesterolemia or had experienced a heart attack. RESULTS: In total, 873 (58%) of the respondents consented...

  10. Clinical Validity, Understandability, and Actionability of Online Cardiovascular Disease Risk Calculators: Systematic Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonner, Carissa; Fajardo, Michael Anthony; Hui, Samuel; Stubbs, Renee; Trevena, Lyndal

    2018-02-01

    Online health information is particularly important for cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention, where lifestyle changes are recommended until risk becomes high enough to warrant pharmacological intervention. Online information is abundant, but the quality is often poor and many people do not have adequate health literacy to access, understand, and use it effectively. This project aimed to review and evaluate the suitability of online CVD risk calculators for use by low health literate consumers in terms of clinical validity, understandability, and actionability. This systematic review of public websites from August to November 2016 used evaluation of clinical validity based on a high-risk patient profile and assessment of understandability and actionability using Patient Education Material Evaluation Tool for Print Materials. A total of 67 unique webpages and 73 unique CVD risk calculators were identified. The same high-risk patient profile produced widely variable CVD risk estimates, ranging from as little as 3% to as high as a 43% risk of a CVD event over the next 10 years. One-quarter (25%) of risk calculators did not specify what model these estimates were based on. The most common clinical model was Framingham (44%), and most calculators (77%) provided a 10-year CVD risk estimate. The calculators scored moderately on understandability (mean score 64%) and poorly on actionability (mean score 19%). The absolute percentage risk was stated in most (but not all) calculators (79%), and only 18% included graphical formats consistent with recommended risk communication guidelines. There is a plethora of online CVD risk calculators available, but they are not readily understandable and their actionability is poor. Entering the same clinical information produces widely varying results with little explanation. Developers need to address actionability as well as clinical validity and understandability to improve usefulness to consumers with low health literacy.

  11. Fundamentals of risk management understanding, evaluating and implementing effective risk management

    CERN Document Server

    Hopkin, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Now more than ever, organizations must plan, response and recognize all forms of risks that they face. "Fundamentals of Risk Management", now in its second edition, provides a comprehensive introduction to the subject of commercial and business risk for anyone studying for a career in risk as well as a broad range of risk professionals. It examines the key components of risk management and its application with examples to demonstrate its benefit to organisations in the public and private sector. The second edition has been completely updated to take into account the greater influence of ISO 3100, the emergence of Governance Risk and Compliance (GRC) and the wide use of the bowtie method to illustrate risk management. In addition, there is now a chapter on the skills and competencies required by an effective risk manager.

  12. Quantitative autistic trait measurements index background genetic risk for ASD in Hispanic families.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Page, Joshua; Constantino, John Nicholas; Zambrana, Katherine; Martin, Eden; Tunc, Ilker; Zhang, Yi; Abbacchi, Anna; Messinger, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    Recent studies have indicated that quantitative autistic traits (QATs) of parents reflect inherited liabilities that may index background genetic risk for clinical autism spectrum disorder (ASD) in their offspring. Moreover, preferential mating for QATs has been observed as a potential factor in concentrating autistic liabilities in some families across generations. Heretofore, intergenerational studies of QATs have focused almost exclusively on Caucasian populations-the present study explored these phenomena in a well-characterized Hispanic population. The present study examined QAT scores in siblings and parents of 83 Hispanic probands meeting research diagnostic criteria for ASD, and 64 non-ASD controls, using the Social Responsiveness Scale-2 (SRS-2). Ancestry of the probands was characterized by genotype, using information from 541,929 single nucleotide polymorphic markers. In families of Hispanic children with an ASD diagnosis, the pattern of quantitative trait correlations observed between ASD-affected children and their first-degree relatives (ICCs on the order of 0.20), between unaffected first-degree relatives in ASD-affected families (sibling/mother ICC = 0.36; sibling/father ICC = 0.53), and between spouses (mother/father ICC = 0.48) were in keeping with the influence of transmitted background genetic risk and strong preferential mating for variation in quantitative autistic trait burden. Results from analysis of ancestry-informative genetic markers among probands in this sample were consistent with that from other Hispanic populations. Quantitative autistic traits represent measurable indices of inherited liability to ASD in Hispanic families. The accumulation of autistic traits occurs within generations, between spouses, and across generations, among Hispanic families affected by ASD. The occurrence of preferential mating for QATs-the magnitude of which may vary across cultures-constitutes a mechanism by which background genetic liability

  13. Revisiting support optimization at the Driskos tunnel using a quantitative risk approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Connor Langford

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available With the scale and cost of geotechnical engineering projects increasing rapidly over the past few decades, there is a clear need for the careful consideration of calculated risks in design. While risk is typically dealt with subjectively through the use of conservative design parameters, with the advent of reliability-based methods, this no longer needs to be the case. Instead, a quantitative risk approach can be considered that incorporates uncertainty in ground conditions directly into the design process to determine the variable ground response and support loads. This allows for the optimization of support on the basis of both worker safety and economic risk. This paper presents the application of such an approach to review the design of the initial lining system along a section of the Driskos twin tunnels as part of the Egnatia Odos highway in northern Greece. Along this section of tunnel, weak rock masses were encountered as well as high in situ stress conditions, which led to excessive deformations and failure of the as built temporary support. Monitoring data were used to validate the rock mass parameters selected in this area and a risk approach was used to determine, in hindsight, the most appropriate support category with respect to the cost of installation and expected cost of failure. Different construction sequences were also considered in the context of both convenience and risk cost.

  14. Risk of vertebral insufficiency fractures in relation to compressive strength predicted by quantitative computed tomography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Biggemann, M.; Hilweg, D.; Seidel, S. (Evangelisches Krankenhaus Bethesda Duisburg (Germany). Radiologische Klinik und Strahleninstitut); Horst, M. (Evangelisches Krankenhaus Bethesda Duisburg (Germany). Orthopaedische Klinik); Brinckmann, P. (Universitaet Muenster (Germany). Institut fuer Experimentelle Biomechanik)

    Vertebral insufficiency fractures may result from excessive loading of normal and routine loading of osteoporotic spines. Fractures occur when the mechanical load exceeds the vertebral compressive strength, i.e., the maximum load a vertebra can tolerate. Vertebral compressive strength is determined by trabecular bone density and the size of end-plate area. Both parameters can be measured non-invasively by quanti-tative computed tomography (QCT). In 75 patients compressive strength (i.e., trabecular bone density and endplate area) of the vertebra L3 was determined using QCT. In addition, conventional radiographs of the spines were analysed for the prevalence of insufficiency fractures in each case. By relating fracture prevalence to strength, 3 fracture risk groups were found: a high-risk group with strength values of L3<3 kN (kilo Newton) and a fracture risk of 100 percent, an intermediate group with strength values from 3 to 5 kN and a steeply increasing risk with decreasing strength, and a low-risk group with strength values >5 kN and a fracture risk near 0 percent. Biomechanical measurements and model calculations indicate that spinal loads of 3 to 4 kN at L3/4 will be common in everyday activities. These data and the results described above suggest that spines with strength values of L3<3 kN are at an extremely high risk of insufficiency fractures in daily life. Advantages of fracture risk assessment by strength determination over risk estimation based on clinically used trabecular bone density measurements are discussed. (author). 18 refs.; 4 figs.

  15. A methodology for the quantitative risk assessment of major accidents triggered by seismic events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antonioni, Giacomo; Spadoni, Gigliola; Cozzani, Valerio

    2007-08-17

    A procedure for the quantitative risk assessment of accidents triggered by seismic events in industrial facilities was developed. The starting point of the procedure was the use of available historical data to assess the expected frequencies and the severity of seismic events. Available equipment-dependant failure probability models (vulnerability or fragility curves) were used to assess the damage probability of equipment items due to a seismic event. An analytic procedure was subsequently developed to identify, evaluate the credibility and finally assess the expected consequences of all the possible scenarios that may follow the seismic events. The procedure was implemented in a GIS-based software tool in order to manage the high number of event sequences that are likely to be generated in large industrial facilities. The developed methodology requires a limited amount of additional data with respect to those used in a conventional QRA, and yields with a limited effort a preliminary quantitative assessment of the contribution of the scenarios triggered by earthquakes to the individual and societal risk indexes. The application of the methodology to several case-studies evidenced that the scenarios initiated by seismic events may have a relevant influence on industrial risk, both raising the overall expected frequency of single scenarios and causing specific severe scenarios simultaneously involving several plant units.

  16. Acute colonic diverticulitis: modern understanding of pathomechanisms, risk factors, disease burden and severity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Søreide, Kjetil; Boermeester, Marja A.; Humes, David J.; Velmahos, George C.

    2016-01-01

    Conservative, non-antibiotic and non-surgical management of acute diverticulitis is currently being investigated. To better inform clinical decisions, better understanding of disease mechanisms, disease burden and severity is needed. Literature search of risk factors, pathophysiology, epidemiology

  17. Understanding of the risk of HIV infection among the elderly in Ga ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Eucebious Lekalakala-Mokgele

    2014-06-24

    Medunsa Campus), Pretoria, South Africa, ... South Africa to explore and describe the understanding of these elderly people regarding their risks of HIV infection and AIDS. ..... themselves, some partners refused to use condoms.

  18. Quantitative microbial risk assessment for Staphylococcus aureus in natural and processed cheese in Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Heeyoung; Kim, Kyunga; Choi, Kyoung-Hee; Yoon, Yohan

    2015-09-01

    This study quantitatively assessed the microbial risk of Staphylococcus aureus in cheese in Korea. The quantitative microbial risk assessment was carried out for natural and processed cheese from factory to consumption. Hazards for S. aureus in cheese were identified through the literature. For exposure assessment, the levels of S. aureus contamination in cheeses were evaluated, and the growth of S. aureus was predicted by predictive models at the surveyed temperatures, and at the time of cheese processing and distribution. For hazard characterization, a dose-response model for S. aureus was found, and the model was used to estimate the risk of illness. With these data, simulation models were prepared with @RISK (Palisade Corp., Ithaca, NY) to estimate the risk of illness per person per day in risk characterization. Staphylococcus aureus cell counts on cheese samples from factories and markets were below detection limits (0.30-0.45 log cfu/g), and pert distribution showed that the mean temperature at markets was 6.63°C. Exponential model [P=1 - exp(7.64×10(-8) × N), where N=dose] for dose-response was deemed appropriate for hazard characterization. Mean temperature of home storage was 4.02°C (log-logistic distribution). The results of risk characterization for S. aureus in natural and processed cheese showed that the mean values for the probability of illness per person per day were higher in processed cheese (mean: 2.24×10(-9); maximum: 7.97×10(-6)) than in natural cheese (mean: 7.84×10(-10); maximum: 2.32×10(-6)). These results indicate that the risk of S. aureus-related foodborne illness due to cheese consumption can be considered low under the present conditions in Korea. In addition, the developed stochastic risk assessment model in this study can be useful in establishing microbial criteria for S. aureus in cheese. Copyright © 2015 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. A Model for Understanding the Genetic Basis for Disparity in Prostate Cancer Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-10-01

    AWARD NUMBER: W81XWH-15-1-0529 TITLE: A Model for Understanding the Genetic Basis for Disparity in Prostate Cancer Risk PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR...reducing this burden to Department of Defense, Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports (0704-0188), 1215...AND SUBTITLE A Model for Understanding the Genetic Basis for Disparity in Prostate Cancer Risk 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER W81XWH-15-1

  20. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Tutorial Installation of Software for Watershed Modeling in Support of QMRA - Updated 2017

    Science.gov (United States)

    This tutorial provides instructions for accessing, retrieving, and downloading the following software to install on a host computer in support of Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) modeling: • QMRA Installation • SDMProjectBuilder (which includes the Mi...

  1. Application of quantitative microbial risk assessment for selection of microbial reduction targets for hard surface disinfectants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryan, Michael O; Haas, Charles N; Gurian, Patrick L; Gerba, Charles P; Panzl, Brian M; Rose, Joan B

    2014-11-01

    This quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) included problem formulation for fomites and hazard identification for 7 microorganisms, including pathogenic Escherichia coli and E coli 0157:H7, Listeria monocytogenes, norovirus, Pseudomonas spp, Salmonella spp, and Staphylococcus aureus. The goal was to address a risk-based process for choosing the log10 reduction recommendations, in contrast to the current US Environmental Protection Agency requirements. For each microbe evaluated, the QMRA model included specific dose-response models, occurrence determination of aerobic bacteria and specific organisms on fomites, exposure assessment, risk characterization, and risk reduction. Risk estimates were determined for a simple scenario using a single touch of a contaminated surface and self-inoculation. A comparative analysis of log10 reductions, as suggested by the US Environmental Protection Agency, and the risks based on this QMRA approach was also undertaken. The literature review and meta-analysis showed that aerobic bacteria were the most commonly studied on fomites, averaging 100 colony-forming units (CFU)/cm(2). Pseudomonas aeruginosa was found at a level of 3.3 × 10(-1) CFU/cm(2); methicillin-resistant S aureus (MRSA), at 6.4 × 10(-1) CFU/cm(2). Risk estimates per contact event ranged from a high of 10(-3) for norovirus to a low of 10(-9) for S aureus. This QMRA analysis suggests that a reduction in bacterial numbers on a fomite by 99% (2 logs) most often will reduce the risk of infection from a single contact to less than 1 in 1 million. Copyright © 2014 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. QR-STEM: Energy and Environment as a Context for Improving QR and STEM Understandings of 6-12 Grade Teachers II. The Quantitative Reasoning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayes, R.; Lyford, M. E.; Myers, J. D.

    2009-12-01

    The Quantitative Reasoning in STEM (QR STEM) project is a state level Mathematics and Science Partnership Project (MSP) with a focus on the mathematics and statistics that underlies the understanding of complex global scientific issues. This session is a companion session to the QR STEM: The Science presentation. The focus of this session is the quantitative reasoning aspects of the project. As students move from understandings that range from local to global in perspective on issues of energy and environment, there is a significant increase in the need for mathematical and statistical conceptual understanding. These understandings must be accessible to the students within the scientific context, requiring the special understandings that are endemic within quantitative reasoning. The QR STEM project brings together interdisciplinary teams of higher education faculty and middle/high school teachers to explore complex problems in energy and environment. The disciplines include life sciences, physics, chemistry, earth science, statistics, and mathematics. These interdisciplinary teams develop open ended performance tasks to implement in the classroom, based on scientific concepts that underpin energy and environment. Quantitative reasoning is broken down into three components: Quantitative Literacy, Quantitative Interpretation, and Quantitative Modeling. Quantitative Literacy is composed of arithmetic concepts such as proportional reasoning, numeracy, and descriptive statistics. Quantitative Interpretation includes algebraic and geometric concepts that underlie the ability to interpret a model of natural phenomena which is provided for the student. This model may be a table, graph, or equation from which the student is to make predictions or identify trends, or from which they would use statistics to explore correlations or patterns in data. Quantitative modeling is the ability to develop the model from data, including the ability to test hypothesis using statistical

  3. Assessment of the health impact of an environmental pollution and quantitative assessment of health risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-09-01

    The report made by a working group is written for experts in health risk assessment or for professionals involved in risk management. It proposes a methodological and conceptual framework which could build a unified approach to a quantitative assessment of health risks. In the first part, under the form of questions and answers, it defines the health impact, describes how to assess the excess of individual risk and the related hypothesis, how to pass from the excess of individual risk to the health impact, how to express the results of an health impact calculation, how to take the lack of knowledge into account at the different steps of this calculation, what is the significance of the result of such a calculation, and how useful an health impact assessment can be. The second part proposes a more detailed presentation of the scientific background for the health impact calculation with its indicators, its uncertainties, its practice in other countries, its relevance, and its fields of application. Then, after a comment of the dose-response relationship, it reports the scientific validity of the assessment of a number of cases

  4. A semi-quantitative approach to GMO risk-benefit analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, E Jane

    2011-10-01

    In many countries there are increasing calls for the benefits of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) to be considered as well as the risks, and for a risk-benefit analysis to form an integral part of GMO regulatory frameworks. This trend represents a shift away from the strict emphasis on risks, which is encapsulated in the Precautionary Principle that forms the basis for the Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety, and which is reflected in the national legislation of many countries. The introduction of risk-benefit analysis of GMOs would be facilitated if clear methodologies were available to support the analysis. Up to now, methodologies for risk-benefit analysis that would be applicable to the introduction of GMOs have not been well defined. This paper describes a relatively simple semi-quantitative methodology that could be easily applied as a decision support tool, giving particular consideration to the needs of regulators in developing countries where there are limited resources and experience. The application of the methodology is demonstrated using the release of an insect resistant maize variety in South Africa as a case study. The applicability of the method in the South African regulatory system is also discussed, as an example of what might be involved in introducing changes into an existing regulatory process.

  5. Quantitative risk assessment of human salmonellosis in the smallholder pig value chains in urban of Vietnam.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dang-Xuan, Sinh; Nguyen-Viet, Hung; Unger, Fred; Pham-Duc, Phuc; Grace, Delia; Tran-Thi, Ngan; Barot, Max; Pham-Thi, Ngoc; Makita, Kohei

    2017-02-01

    To quantify salmonellosis risk in humans through consumption of boiled pork in urban Hung Yen Province, Vietnam, using a quantitative microbial risk assessment. We collected 302 samples along the pork value chain in Hung Yen between April 2014 and February 2015. We developed a model in @Risk, based on microbiological, market, and household surveys on cooking, cross-contamination and consumption, and conducted sensitivity analysis. Salmonella prevalence of pen floor swabs, slaughterhouse carcasses and cut pork were 33.3, 41.7 and 44.4%, respectively. The annual incidence rate of salmonellosis in humans was estimated to be 17.7% (90% CI 0.89-45.96). Parameters with the greatest influence risk were household pork handling practice followed by prevalence in pork sold in the central market. Wide confidence interval in the incidence estimate was mainly due to the variability in the degree of reduction in bacteria concentration by cooking, and pork consumption pattern. The risk of salmonellosis in humans due to boiled pork consumption appears to be high. Control measures may include improving the safety of retailed pork and improving household hygiene.

  6. Quantitative Cyber Risk Reduction Estimation Methodology for a Small Scada Control System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miles A. McQueen; Wayne F. Boyer; Mark A. Flynn; George A. Beitel

    2006-01-01

    We propose a new methodology for obtaining a quick quantitative measurement of the risk reduction achieved when a control system is modified with the intent to improve cyber security defense against external attackers. The proposed methodology employs a directed graph called a compromise graph, where the nodes represent stages of a potential attack and the edges represent the expected time-to-compromise for differing attacker skill levels. Time-to-compromise is modeled as a function of known vulnerabilities and attacker skill level. The methodology was used to calculate risk reduction estimates for a specific SCADA system and for a specific set of control system security remedial actions. Despite an 86% reduction in the total number of vulnerabilities, the estimated time-to-compromise was increased only by about 3 to 30% depending on target and attacker skill level.

  7. A Quantitative Approach to Credit Risk Management in the Underwriting Process for the Retail Portfolio

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreea Costea

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The core of this paper encloses a mathematical approach of credit risk management, based on a scorecard model used in the bank’s underwriting process. The main purpose of this paper is to present how to develop, validate and apply a rating model in practice. Using 21568 loan applications provided by one of the largest banks from Romania, a scorecard is built for the underwriting purposes. The customer data used in the modeling is based on socio-demographic characteristics. The model is developed according to a set of statistical methods for parameter estimation. A real-life example of how to use such a model in the strategic decisions of a bank is presented. The cut-off score for the acceptance of the applications is calibrated to a potential risk appetite of the main four banks in Romania. From an evaluative perspective, this paper is compatible with an exploratory approach to quantitative research methodology.

  8. Quantitative rock-fall hazard and risk assessment for Yosemite Valley, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stock, G. M.; Luco, N.; Collins, B. D.; Harp, E.; Reichenbach, P.; Frankel, K. L.

    2011-12-01

    Rock falls are a considerable hazard in Yosemite Valley, California with more than 835 rock falls and other slope movements documented since 1857. Thus, rock falls pose potentially significant risk to the nearly four million annual visitors to Yosemite National Park. Building on earlier hazard assessment work by the U.S. Geological Survey, we performed a quantitative rock-fall hazard and risk assessment for Yosemite Valley. This work was aided by several new data sets, including precise Geographic Information System (GIS) maps of rock-fall deposits, airborne and terrestrial LiDAR-based point cloud data and digital elevation models, and numerical ages of talus deposits. Using Global Position Systems (GPS), we mapped the positions of over 500 boulders on the valley floor and measured their distance relative to the mapped base of talus. Statistical analyses of these data yielded an initial hazard zone that is based on the 90th percentile distance of rock-fall boulders beyond the talus edge. This distance was subsequently scaled (either inward or outward from the 90th percentile line) based on rock-fall frequency information derived from a combination of cosmogenic beryllium-10 exposure dating of boulders beyond the edge of the talus, and computer model simulations of rock-fall runout. The scaled distances provide the basis for a new hazard zone on the floor of Yosemite Valley. Once this zone was delineated, we assembled visitor, employee, and resident use data for each structure within the hazard zone to quantitatively assess risk exposure. Our results identify areas within the new hazard zone that may warrant more detailed study, for example rock-fall susceptibility, which can be assessed through examination of high-resolution photographs, structural measurements on the cliffs, and empirical calculations derived from LiDAR point cloud data. This hazard and risk information is used to inform placement of existing and potential future infrastructure in Yosemite Valley.

  9. Application of Bayesian networks in quantitative risk assessment of subsea blowout preventer operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Baoping; Liu, Yonghong; Liu, Zengkai; Tian, Xiaojie; Zhang, Yanzhen; Ji, Renjie

    2013-07-01

    This article proposes a methodology for the application of Bayesian networks in conducting quantitative risk assessment of operations in offshore oil and gas industry. The method involves translating a flow chart of operations into the Bayesian network directly. The proposed methodology consists of five steps. First, the flow chart is translated into a Bayesian network. Second, the influencing factors of the network nodes are classified. Third, the Bayesian network for each factor is established. Fourth, the entire Bayesian network model is established. Lastly, the Bayesian network model is analyzed. Subsequently, five categories of influencing factors, namely, human, hardware, software, mechanical, and hydraulic, are modeled and then added to the main Bayesian network. The methodology is demonstrated through the evaluation of a case study that shows the probability of failure on demand in closing subsea ram blowout preventer operations. The results show that mechanical and hydraulic factors have the most important effects on operation safety. Software and hardware factors have almost no influence, whereas human factors are in between. The results of the sensitivity analysis agree with the findings of the quantitative analysis. The three-axiom-based analysis partially validates the correctness and rationality of the proposed Bayesian network model. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  10. Understanding plate-motion changes over the past 100 Myr with quantitative models of the coupled lithosphere/mantle system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stotz, Ingo; Iaffaldano, Giampiero; Rhodri Davies, D.

    2015-04-01

    The volume of geophysical datasets has grown substantially over recent decades. Our knowledge of continental evolution has increased due to advances in interpreting the records of orogeny and sedimentation. Ocean-floor observations now allow one to resolve past plate motions (e.g. in the North Atlantic and Indian Ocean over the past 20 Myr) at temporal resolutions of about 1 Myr. Altogether, these ever-growing datasets allow us to reconstruct the past evolution of Earth's lithospheric plates in greater detail. This is key to unravelling the dynamics of geological processes, because plate motions and their temporal changes are powerful probe into the evolving force balance between shallow- and deep-rooted processes. However, such progress is not yet matched by the ability to quantitatively model past plate-motion changes and, therefore, to test hypotheses on the dominant controls. The main technical challenge is simulating the rheological behaviour of the lithosphere/mantle system, which varies significantly from viscous to brittle. Traditionally computer models for viscous mantle flow on the one hand, and for the motions of the brittle lithosphere on the other hand, have been developed separately. Coupling of these two independent classes of models has been accomplished only for neo-tectonic scenarios, without accounting for the impact of time-evolving mantle-flow (e.g. Iaffaldano and Bunge 2009). However, we have built a coupled model to simulate the lithosphere/mantle system (using SHELLS and TERRA, respectively) through geological time, and to exploit the growing body of geophysical data as a primary constraint on these quantitative models. TERRA is a global spherical finite-element code for mantle convection (e.g. Baumgardner 1985, Bunge et al. 1996, Davies et al. 2013), whilst SHELLS is a thin-sheet finite-element code for lithosphere dynamics (e.g. Bird 1998). Our efforts are focused, in particular, on achieving the technical ability to: (i) simulate the

  11. Communicating Numerical Risk: Human Factors That Aid Understanding in Health Care

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brust-Renck, Priscila G.; Royer, Caisa E.; Reyna, Valerie F.

    2014-01-01

    In this chapter, we review evidence from the human factors literature that verbal and visual formats can help increase the understanding of numerical risk information in health care. These visual representations of risk are grounded in empirically supported theory. As background, we first review research showing that people often have difficulty understanding numerical risks and benefits in health information. In particular, we discuss how understanding the meanings of numbers results in healthier decisions. Then, we discuss the processes that determine how communication of numerical risks can enhance (or degrade) health judgments and decisions. Specifically, we examine two different approaches to risk communication: a traditional approach and fuzzy-trace theory. Applying research on the complications of understanding and communicating risks, we then highlight how different visual representations are best suited to communicating different risk messages (i.e., their gist). In particular, we review verbal and visual messages that highlight gist representations that can better communicate health information and improve informed decision making. This discussion is informed by human factors theories and methods, which involve the study of how to maximize the interaction between humans and the tools they use. Finally, we present implications and recommendations for future research on human factors in health care. PMID:24999307

  12. Understanding and acknowledging the ice throw hazard - consequences for regulatory frameworks, risk perception and risk communication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bredesen, R. E.; Drapalik, M.; Butt, B.

    2017-11-01

    This study attempts to provide the necessary framework required to make sufficiently informed decisions regarding the safety implications of ice throw. The framework elaborates on how to cope with uncertainties, and how to describe results in a meaningful and useful manner to decision makers. Moreover, it points out the moral, judicial and economical obligations of wind turbine owners such that they are able to minimize risk of ice throws as much as possible. Building on the strength of knowledge as well as accounting for uncertainty are also essential in enabling clear communication with stakeholders on the most important/critical/vital issues. With increasing empirical evidence, one can assign a higher confidence level on the expert opinions on safety. Findings regarding key uncertainties of ice risk assessments are presented here to support the ongoing IEA Wind Task 19's work on creating the international guidelines on ice risk assessment due in 2018 (Krenn et al. 2017)[1-6]. In addition the study also incorporates the findings of a Norwegian information project, which focuses on the ice throw hazard for the public (Bredesen, Flage, Butt, Winterwind 2018)[7-9]. This includes measures to reduce damage and hazard from wind turbines for the general public. Recent theory of risk assessment questions the use of risk criteria for achieving optimum risk reduction and favours the use of the ALARA (as low as reasonably achievable) principle. Given the several practical problems associated with the ALARA approach (e.g. judicial realization), a joint approach, which uses a minimum set of criteria as well as the obligation to meet ALARA is suggested (associated with acceptable cost). The actual decision about acceptance criteria or obligations is a societal one, thus suggestions can be made at best. Risk acceptance, risk perception and risk communication are inextricably linked and should thus never be considered separately. Risk communication can shape risk perception

  13. Quantitative assessment of cancer risk from exposure to diesel engine emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pepelko, W.E.; Chen, C. (Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States))

    1993-02-01

    Quantitative estimates of lung cancer risk from exposure to diesel engine emissions were developed using data from three chronic bioassays with Fischer 344 rats. Human target organ dose was estimated with the aid of a comprehensive dosimetry model. This model accounted for rat-human differences in deposition efficiency, normal particle clearance rates, transport of particles to lung-associated lymph nodes, respiration rates, and lung surface area, as well as high-dose inhibition of particle clearance. Recent evidence indicates that the inert carbon core of the diesel particulate matter is likely to be the primary source of carcinogenicity. The epithelial tissue lining the alveoli and lower airways is the primary target site for induction of lung tumors. Dose was therefore based upon the concentration of carbon particulate matter per unit lung surface area. Unit risk estimates were developed using either a time-to-tumor or a linearized multistage model. The unit risk estimates, defined as the 95% upper confidence limit of the cancer risk from continuous lifetime exposure to 1 microgram/m3 of diesel exhaust particulate matter, varied from 1.0 to 4.6 x 10(5) with a geometric mean of 1.7 x 10(5).

  14. Quantitative assessments of indoor air pollution and the risk of childhood acute leukemia in Shanghai

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gao, Yu; Zhang, Yan; Kamijima, Michihiro; Sakai, Kiyoshi; Khalequzzaman, Md; Nakajima, Tamie; Shi, Rong; Wang, Xiaojin; Chen, Didi; Ji, Xiaofan; Han, Kaiyi; Tian, Ying

    2014-01-01

    We investigated the association between indoor air pollutants and childhood acute leukemia (AL). A total of 105 newly diagnosed cases and 105 1:1 gender-, age-, and hospital-matched controls were included. Measurements of indoor pollutants (including nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) and 17 types of volatile organic compounds (VOCs)) were taken with diffusive samplers for 64 pairs of cases and controls. Higher concentrations of NO 2 and almost half of VOCs were observed in the cases than in the controls and were associated with the increased risk of childhood AL. The use of synthetic materials for wall decoration and furniture in bedroom was related to the risk of childhood AL. Renovating the house in the last 5 years, changing furniture in the last 5 years, closing the doors and windows overnight in the winter and/or summer, paternal smoking history and outdoor pollutants affected VOC concentrations. Our results support the association between childhood AL and indoor air pollution. - Highlights: • We firstly assessed the effects of indoor air pollution on childhood AL in China. • Indoor air pollutants were assessed by questionnaire and quantitative measurements. • NO 2 and 17 types of VOCs were measured in bedrooms of both cases and controls. • Higher concentrations of indoor air pollutants increased the risk of childhood AL. • Indoor behavioral factors and outdoor pollution might affect indoor air pollution. - Higher concentrations of indoor air pollutants were related to an elevated risk of childhood AL

  15. Vulnerability of Russian regions to natural risk: experience of quantitative assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Petrova

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the important tracks leading to natural risk prevention, disaster mitigation or the reduction of losses due to natural hazards is the vulnerability assessment of an 'at-risk' region. The majority of researchers propose to assess vulnerability according to an expert evaluation of several qualitative characteristics, scoring each of them usually using three ratings: low, average, and high. Unlike these investigations, we attempted a quantitative vulnerability assessment using multidimensional statistical methods. Cluster analysis for all 89 Russian regions revealed five different types of region, which are characterized with a single (rarely two prevailing factor causing increase of vulnerability. These factors are: the sensitivity of the technosphere to unfavorable influences; a 'human factor'; a high volume of stored toxic waste that increases possibility of NDs with serious consequences; the low per capita GRP, which determine reduced prevention and protection costs; the heightened liability of regions to natural disasters that can be complicated due to unfavorable social processes. The proposed methods permitted us to find differences in prevailing risk factor (vulnerability factor for the region types that helps to show in which direction risk management should focus on.

  16. Where Lies the Risk? An Ecological Approach to Understanding Child Mental Health Risk and Vulnerabilities in Sub-Saharan Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Atilola, Olayinka

    2014-01-01

    Efforts at improving child-health and development initiatives in sub-Saharan Africa had focused on the physical health of children due to the neglect of child and adolescent mental health (CAMH) policy initiatives. A thorough and broad-based understanding of the prevalent child mental-health risk and vulnerability factors is needed to successfully articulate CAMH policies. In this discourse, we present a narrative on the child mental-health risk and vulnerability factors in sub-Saharan Africa...

  17. A Quantitative Risk-Benefit Analysis of Prophylactic Surgery Prior to Extended-Duration Spaceflight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carroll, Danielle; Reyes, David; Kerstman, Eric; Walton, Marlei; Antonsen, Erik

    2017-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Among otherwise healthy astronauts undertaking deep space missions, the risks for acute appendicitis (AA) and cholecystitis (AC) are not zero. If these conditions were to occur during spaceflight they may require surgery for definitive care. The proposed study quantifies and compares the risks of developing de novo AA and AC in-flight to the surgical risks of prophylactic laparoscopic appendectomy (LA) and cholecystectomy (LC) using NASA's Integrated Medical Model (IMM). METHODS: The IMM is a Monte Carlo simulation that forecasts medical events during spaceflight missions and estimates the impact of these medical events on crew health. In this study, four Design Reference Missions (DRMs) were created to assess the probability of an astronaut developing in-flight small-bowel obstruction (SBO) following prophylactic 1) LA, 2) LC, 3) LA and LC, or 4) neither surgery (SR# S-20160407-351). Model inputs were drawn from a large, population-based 2011 Swedish study that examined the incidence and risks of post-operative SBO over a 5-year follow-up period. The study group included 1,152 patients who underwent LA, and 16,371 who underwent LC. RESULTS: Preliminary results indicate that prophylactic LA may yield higher mission risks than the control DRM. Complete analyses are pending and will be subsequently available. DISCUSSION: The risk versus benefits of prophylactic surgery in astronauts to decrease the probability of acute surgical events during spaceflight has only been qualitatively examined in prior studies. Within the assumptions and limitations of the IMM, this work provides the first quantitative guidance that has previously been lacking to this important question for future deep space exploration missions.

  18. Discursive junctions in flood risk governance - A comparative understanding in six European countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaufmann, Maria; Wiering, Mark

    2017-07-01

    Flood risks are managed differently across Europe. While a number of research studies aim to understand these differences, they tend to pay little attention to the social constructionist aspects of flood risk governance, i.e. the meaning that societies give to flood risk and governance. This paper aims to address this gap by understanding differences in flood risk management approaches (FRMA) from a discursive-institutional perspective. Based on this perspective, an analytical framework was developed to systematically analyse and compare discourses pertaining to flood risk and its governance in six European member states (England (the United Kingdom), Flanders (Belgium), France, the Netherlands, Poland and Sweden). Correspondingly, this paper demonstrates how the hegemonic discursive-institutional patterns of flood risk governance differ between the six European countries. These differences may influence the capability of countries to learn from each other, adopt new FRMAs or cooperate with each other. Moreover, the paper argues that differences in discourses partially account for the differences in FRMAs between countries, combined with other factors. Additionally, broader implications are discussed. For example, the research findings imply that some discourses tend to favour or disfavour other discourses, and that they additionally also tend to favour particular FRMAs; e.g. the flood risk discourse pertaining to high manageability of risks seems to favour a governance discourse of collectivity and central governance. The different insights imply that further research is necessary to understand the complex interaction of discourses and institutional arrangements. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Risk avoidance versus risk reduction: a framework and segmentation profile for understanding adolescent sexual activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopkins, Christopher D; Tanner, John F; Raymond, Mary Anne

    2004-01-01

    The teen birthrate in the United States is twice that of other industrialized nations. Adolescents in the U.S. are among high-risk groups for HIV/AIDS and other sexually transmitted diseases. As a result, the Department of Health and Human Services changed its policy on the promotion of abstinence to teenagers from a focus on a risk reduction strategy to a focus on a risk avoidance strategy. In order to create more effective risk avoidance as well as risk reduction campaigns, this study proposes a framework to illustrate the distinction that teens make between spontaneous sexual activity and planned sexual activity, as well as those teens that make a commitment to abstinence versus abstinence by default. Furthermore, this study classifies teens into three behavior segments (abstemious, promiscuous and monogamous) and then assesses specific differences that exist within these groups relative to their attitudes and perceptions concerning abstinence, sexual activity, contraception, fear and norms. This change in focus from a risk reduction to a risk avoidance strategy has important implications for social marketing, public policy and marketing theory.

  20. An Exploratory Sequential Mixed Methods Approach to Understanding Researchers’ Data Management Practices at UVM: Findings from the Quantitative Phase

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elizabeth A. Berman

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This is the second in a series of articles reporting on a study of researcher data management practices and data services at the University of Vermont. This article reports on the second quantitative phase of an exploratory sequential mixed methods research design focused on researcher data management practices and related institutional support and services. The study aims to understand data management activities and challenges of faculty at the University of Vermont (UVM, a higher research activity Research University, in order to develop appropriate research data services (RDS. Data was collected via a survey, built on themes from the initial qualitative data analysis from the first phase of this study. The survey was distributed to a nonrandom census sample of full-time UVM faculty and researchers (P=1,190; from this population, a total of 319 participants completed the survey for a 26.8% response rate. The survey collected information on five dimensions of data management: data management activities; data management plans; data management challenges; data management support; and attitudes and behaviors towards data management planning. Frequencies, cross tabulations, and chi-square tests of independence were calculated using demographic variables including gender, rank, college, and discipline. Results from the analysis provide a snapshot of research data management activities at UVM, including types of data collected, use of metadata, short- and long-term storage of data, and data sharing practices. The survey identified key challenges to data management, including data description (metadata and sharing data with others; this latter challenge is particular impacted by confidentiality issues and lack of time, personnel, and infrastructure to make data available. Faculty also provided insight to RDS that they think UVM should support, as well as RDS they were personally interested in. Data from this study will be integrated with data from the

  1. Informed consent in contrast-enhanced CT. Understanding of risks and identification of possible prognostic factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roehrl, S.; Dendl, L.M.; Scharf, G.; Stroszczynski, C.; Schreyer, A.G.; Zeman, F.

    2015-01-01

    Aim of our study was to assess understanding of risks associated with intravascular application of contrast media in patients undergoing CT examination. We wanted to evaluate epidemiologic and socio-economic prognostic factors for a higher understanding of risks. Additionally, we evaluated a possible correlation between an extensive, outcome-oriented oral informed consent and better understanding of risks. 120 patients distributed in 2 study arms participated in this prospective study. In study arm I, the treating physician was not informed that his patients participated in a study whereas the physician in study arm II knew about the survey. After the informed consent we performed a standardized, semi-structured interview to enquire the 3 most frequent risks of intravascular application of contrast agents (anaphylactoid reactions, nephropathy and thyrotoxic crisis) and epidemiologic data. The understanding of the risks was evaluated using a 6 point scale. Patients scored 3.73 points in study arm I and 4.93 points in arm II on average. The statistical difference between both study arms was highly significant (p < 0.001). In a combined logistic regression analysis, only ''higher education'' (p = 0.001) and participation in study arm II (p =0.001) showed a significant connection to a better understanding of risks. Patients profit from an outcome-oriented and individualized informed consent. Due to the significant correlation between educational level and understanding of risks, informed consent should be adjusted to the educational status of the individual patient, e.g. by using didactic aids or individualized information sheets.

  2. Skin sensitisation quantitative risk assessment (QRA) based on aggregate dermal exposure to methylisothiazolinone in personal care and household cleaning products.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ezendam, J; Bokkers, B G H; Bil, W; Delmaar, J E

    2017-01-01

    Contact allergy to preservatives is an important public health problem. Ideally, new substances should be evaluated for the risk on skin sensitization before market entry, for example by using a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) as developed for fragrances. As a proof-of-concept, this QRA was

  3. Expanding the Understanding of Risk Behavior Associated With Homelessness Among Veterans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Taylor; Kintzle, Sara; Wenzel, Suzanne; Castro, Carl Andrew

    2017-09-01

    To advance large-scale efforts to end veteran homelessness, an understanding of factors that contribute to housing insecurity is necessary. Common risk behaviors (e.g., substance use and risky sexual practices) are associated with lengthier experiences of homelessness among the general homeless population, but less understood among homeless veterans. Additionally, whether emerging risk behaviors among veterans (e.g., sensation seeking and aggression) are associated with lengthy homeless experiences is unknown. Data were drawn from a sample of Los Angeles County veterans surveyed using a mixed nonprobability sampling strategy, which included recruiting veterans via national and local veterans service organizations, college organizations, and social media campaigns. Measures aligning with factors of sensation seeking (reckless driving, gambling, suicidal ideation); substance use (alcohol misuse, tobacco use, driving while intoxicated); risky sexual practices (risking getting a sexually transmitted disease); and aggression (looking to start a fight) were tested in multivariate, multinomial logistic regression analyses to determine their association with varying lengths of homelessness in the past year (less than 1 month, 2-6 months, 6 months to 1 year). Risking getting a sexually transmitted disease, gambling, suicidal ideation, alcohol misuse, tobacco use, driving while intoxicated, and looking to start a fight were associated with 6 or more months of homelessness. Several indicators of risk were associated with brief periods of homelessness, including gambling and looking to start a fight. Although a clear exposure-response effect was not detected with risk behaviors, results suggested there may be some wavering of engagement in risk behaviors over time. Findings suggest sensation seeking and aggression risk behaviors should be included in risk assessments and prevention efforts along with substance use and risky sexual practices to reduce veterans' risk of becoming

  4. Quantitative microbiological risk assessment in food industry: Theory and practical application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Membré, Jeanne-Marie; Boué, Géraldine

    2018-04-01

    The objective of this article is to bring scientific background as well as practical hints and tips to guide risk assessors and modelers who want to develop a quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) in an industrial context. MRA aims at determining the public health risk associated with biological hazards in a food. Its implementation in industry enables to compare the efficiency of different risk reduction measures, and more precisely different operational settings, by predicting their effect on the final model output. The first stage in MRA is to clearly define the purpose and scope with stakeholders, risk assessors and modelers. Then, a probabilistic model is developed; this includes schematically three important phases. Firstly, the model structure has to be defined, i.e. the connections between different operational processing steps. An important step in food industry is the thermal processing leading to microbial inactivation. Growth of heat-treated surviving microorganisms and/or post-process contamination during storage phase is also important to take into account. Secondly, mathematical equations are determined to estimate the change of microbial load after each processing step. This phase includes the construction of model inputs by collecting data or eliciting experts. Finally, the model outputs are obtained by simulation procedures, they have to be interpreted and communicated to targeted stakeholders. In this latter phase, tools such as what-if scenarios provide an essential added value. These different MRA phases are illustrated through two examples covering important issues in industry. The first one covers process optimization in a food safety context, the second one covers shelf-life determination in a food quality context. Although both contexts required the same methodology, they do not have the same endpoint: up to the human health in the foie gras case-study illustrating here a safety application, up to the food portion in the

  5. Fatalities in high altitude mountaineering: a review of quantitative risk estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinbruch, Stephan; Nordby, Karl-Christian

    2013-12-01

    Quantitative estimates for mortality in high altitude mountaineering are reviewed. Special emphasis is placed on the heterogeneity of the risk estimates and on confounding. Crude estimates for mortality are on the order of 1/1000 to 40/1000 persons above base camp, for both expedition members and high altitude porters. High altitude porters have mostly a lower risk than expedition members (risk ratio for all Nepalese peaks requiring an expedition permit: 0.73; 95 % confidence interval 0.59-0.89). The summit bid is generally the most dangerous part of an expedition for members, whereas most high altitude porters die during route preparation. On 8000 m peaks, the mortality during descent from summit varies between 4/1000 and 134/1000 summiteers (members plus porters). The risk estimates are confounded by human and environmental factors. Information on confounding by gender and age is contradictory and requires further work. There are indications for safety segregation of men and women, with women being more risk averse than men. Citizenship appears to be a significant confounder. Prior high altitude mountaineering experience in Nepal has no protective effect. Commercial expeditions in the Nepalese Himalayas have a lower mortality than traditional expeditions, though after controlling for confounding, the difference is not statistically significant. The overall mortality is increasing with increasing peak altitude for expedition members but not for high altitude porters. In the Nepalese Himalayas and in Alaska, a significant decrease of mortality with calendar year was observed. A few suggestions for further work are made at the end of the article.

  6. Applying quantitative benefit-risk analysis to aid regulatory decision making in diagnostic imaging: methods, challenges, and opportunities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agapova, Maria; Devine, Emily Beth; Bresnahan, Brian W; Higashi, Mitchell K; Garrison, Louis P

    2014-09-01

    Health agencies making regulatory marketing-authorization decisions use qualitative and quantitative approaches to assess expected benefits and expected risks associated with medical interventions. There is, however, no universal standard approach that regulatory agencies consistently use to conduct benefit-risk assessment (BRA) for pharmaceuticals or medical devices, including for imaging technologies. Economics, health services research, and health outcomes research use quantitative approaches to elicit preferences of stakeholders, identify priorities, and model health conditions and health intervention effects. Challenges to BRA in medical devices are outlined, highlighting additional barriers in radiology. Three quantitative methods--multi-criteria decision analysis, health outcomes modeling and stated-choice survey--are assessed using criteria that are important in balancing benefits and risks of medical devices and imaging technologies. To be useful in regulatory BRA, quantitative methods need to: aggregate multiple benefits and risks, incorporate qualitative considerations, account for uncertainty, and make clear whose preferences/priorities are being used. Each quantitative method performs differently across these criteria and little is known about how BRA estimates and conclusions vary by approach. While no specific quantitative method is likely to be the strongest in all of the important areas, quantitative methods may have a place in BRA of medical devices and radiology. Quantitative BRA approaches have been more widely applied in medicines, with fewer BRAs in devices. Despite substantial differences in characteristics of pharmaceuticals and devices, BRA methods may be as applicable to medical devices and imaging technologies as they are to pharmaceuticals. Further research to guide the development and selection of quantitative BRA methods for medical devices and imaging technologies is needed. Copyright © 2014 AUR. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights

  7. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment in Occupational Settings Applied to the Airborne Human Adenovirus Infection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annalaura Carducci

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA methodology, which has already been applied to drinking water and food safety, may also be applied to risk assessment and management at the workplace. The present study developed a preliminary QMRA model to assess microbial risk that is associated with inhaling bioaerosols that are contaminated with human adenovirus (HAdV. This model has been applied to air contamination data from different occupational settings, including wastewater systems, solid waste landfills, and toilets in healthcare settings and offices, with different exposure times. Virological monitoring showed the presence of HAdVs in all the evaluated settings, thus confirming that HAdV is widespread, but with different average concentrations of the virus. The QMRA results, based on these concentrations, showed that toilets had the highest probability of viral infection, followed by wastewater treatment plants and municipal solid waste landfills. Our QMRA approach in occupational settings is novel, and certain caveats should be considered. Nonetheless, we believe it is worthy of further discussions and investigations.

  8. Skin sensitization quantitative risk assessment for occupational exposure of hairdressers to hair dye ingredients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goebel, Carsten; Diepgen, Thomas L; Blömeke, Brunhilde; Gaspari, Anthony A; Schnuch, Axel; Fuchs, Anne; Schlotmann, Kordula; Krasteva, Maya; Kimber, Ian

    2018-03-09

    Occupational exposure of hairdressers to hair dyes has been associated with the development of allergic contact dermatitis (ACD) involving the hands. p-Phenylenediamine (PPD) and toluene-2,5-diamine (PTD) have been implicated as important occupational contact allergens. To conduct a quantitative risk assessment for the induction of contact sensitization to hair dyes in hairdressers, available data from hand rinsing studies following typical occupational exposure conditions to PPD, PTD and resorcinol were assessed. By accounting for wet work, uneven exposure and inter-individual variability for professionals, daily hand exposure concentrations were derived. Secondly, daily hand exposure was compared with the sensitization induction potency of the individual hair dye defined as the No Expected Sensitization Induction Levels (NESIL). For PPD and PTD hairdresser hand exposure levels were 2.7 and 5.9 fold below the individual NESIL. In contrast, hand exposure to resorcinol was 50 fold below the NESIL. Correspondingly, the risk assessment for PPD and PTD indicates that contact sensitization may occur, when skin protection and skin care are not rigorously applied. We conclude that awareness of health risks associated with occupational exposure to hair dyes, and of the importance of adequate protective measures, should be emphasized more fully during hairdresser education and training. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. An educationally inspired illustration of two-dimensional Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) and sensitivity analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vásquez, G A; Busschaert, P; Haberbeck, L U; Uyttendaele, M; Geeraerd, A H

    2014-11-03

    Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) is a structured methodology used to assess the risk involved by ingestion of a pathogen. It applies mathematical models combined with an accurate exploitation of data sets, represented by distributions and - in the case of two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulations - their hyperparameters. This research aims to highlight background information, assumptions and truncations of a two-dimensional QMRA and advanced sensitivity analysis. We believe that such a detailed listing is not always clearly presented in actual risk assessment studies, while it is essential to ensure reliable and realistic simulations and interpretations. As a case-study, we are considering the occurrence of listeriosis in smoked fish products in Belgium during the period 2008-2009, using two-dimensional Monte Carlo and two sensitivity analysis methods (Spearman correlation and Sobol sensitivity indices) to estimate the most relevant factors of the final risk estimate. A risk estimate of 0.018% per consumption of contaminated smoked fish by an immunocompromised person was obtained. The final estimate of listeriosis cases (23) is within the actual reported result obtained for the same period and for the same population. Variability on the final risk estimate is determined by the variability regarding (i) consumer refrigerator temperatures, (ii) the reference growth rate of L. monocytogenes, (iii) the minimum growth temperature of L. monocytogenes and (iv) consumer portion size. Variability regarding the initial contamination level of L. monocytogenes tends to appear as a determinant of risk variability only when the minimum growth temperature is not included in the sensitivity analysis; when it is included the impact regarding the variability on the initial contamination level of L. monocytogenes is disappearing. Uncertainty determinants of the final risk indicated the need of gathering more information on the reference growth rate and the minimum

  10. Quantitative comparison of genotoxic (mutagenic and carcinogenic) risks and the choice of energy sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Latarjet, R.

    1983-01-01

    For 25 years, pollution for radiation has been governed by restrictive rules enacted and periodically revised by an international commission, and adopted by all countries. Nothing similar exists for mutagenic and carcinogenic chemicals. Since these substances affect the genetic material in the cells with reactions often similar to those caused by radiation, quantitative comparisons are possible, in particular for some of those compounds produced by the combustion of coal, oil and gaz. This paper describes the main results obtained at the Institut Curie, since 1975, with ethylene, ethylene oxide and vinyl chloride monomer. The consequences are discussed for: a) the establishement of control rules for the main genotoxic chemical pollutions; b) the assessment of long term risks in the cases of nuclear energy and of the energies obtained by combustion [fr

  11. Understanding the impact of supervision on reducing medication risks: an interview study in long-term elderly care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vermeulen, J A; Kleefstra, S M; Zijp, E M; Kool, R B

    2017-07-06

    In 2009, the Dutch Health Care Inspectorate (IGZ) observed several serious risks to safety involving medication within elderly care facilities. However, by 2011, high risks had been reduced in almost all the organisations we visited. And yet the IGZ analysed too the alarming increase in the number of incidents arising in the self-reported national indicator of medication safety between 2009 and 2010. The aim of this study was to understand the factors that can explain this contradiction between the increase in self-reported medication incidents and the observation of the IGZ in reducing the risks to medication safety through supervision. We interviewed health care professionals of ten care facilities, visited by the IGZ, who were involved in, or responsible for, the improvement of medication safety in their institutions. As outcome measures we used the rate of medication safety risk per facility; the perceptions of the participant with regard to the reports of medication incidents; the level of medication safety of the facility; the measures used to improve medication safety; and the supervision of medication safety. This was a mixed methods study, qualitative in that we used semi-structured interviews, and quantitative, by calculating risks for the different organisations we visited. The findings from both study methods resulted in a comprehensive view and an in-depth understanding of this contradiction. The contradiction between the increase in self-reported medication incidents and the observation of reduced risks was explained by three themes: activities designed to improve medication safety, the reporting of medication incidents, and, lastly, the impact of supervision. The focus of the IGZ on issues of medication safety stimulated most elderly care facilities to reduce medication risks. Also, a change in the culture of reporting incidents caused an increase in the number of reported incidents. Supervision contributed to an improvement in actions geared towards

  12. Fully automated quantitative analysis of breast cancer risk in DCE-MR images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Luan; Hu, Xiaoxin; Gu, Yajia; Li, Qiang

    2015-03-01

    Amount of fibroglandular tissue (FGT) and background parenchymal enhancement (BPE) in dynamic contrast enhanced magnetic resonance (DCE-MR) images are two important indices for breast cancer risk assessment in the clinical practice. The purpose of this study is to develop and evaluate a fully automated scheme for quantitative analysis of FGT and BPE in DCE-MR images. Our fully automated method consists of three steps, i.e., segmentation of whole breast, fibroglandular tissues, and enhanced fibroglandular tissues. Based on the volume of interest extracted automatically, dynamic programming method was applied in each 2-D slice of a 3-D MR scan to delineate the chest wall and breast skin line for segmenting the whole breast. This step took advantages of the continuity of chest wall and breast skin line across adjacent slices. We then further used fuzzy c-means clustering method with automatic selection of cluster number for segmenting the fibroglandular tissues within the segmented whole breast area. Finally, a statistical method was used to set a threshold based on the estimated noise level for segmenting the enhanced fibroglandular tissues in the subtraction images of pre- and post-contrast MR scans. Based on the segmented whole breast, fibroglandular tissues, and enhanced fibroglandular tissues, FGT and BPE were automatically computed. Preliminary results of technical evaluation and clinical validation showed that our fully automated scheme could obtain good segmentation of the whole breast, fibroglandular tissues, and enhanced fibroglandular tissues to achieve accurate assessment of FGT and BPE for quantitative analysis of breast cancer risk.

  13. Quantitative assessment of direct and indirect landslide risk along transportation lines in southern India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Jaiswal

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available A quantitative approach for landslide risk assessment along transportation lines is presented and applied to a road and a railway alignment in the Nilgiri hills in southern India. The method allows estimating direct risk affecting the alignments, vehicles and people, and indirect risk resulting from the disruption of economic activities. The data required for the risk estimation were obtained from historical records. A total of 901 landslides were catalogued initiating from cut slopes along the railway and road alignment. The landslides were grouped into three magnitude classes based on the landslide type, volume, scar depth, run-out distance, etc and their probability of occurrence was obtained using frequency-volume distribution. Hazard, for a given return period, expressed as the number of landslides of a given magnitude class per kilometre of cut slopes, was obtained using Gumbel distribution and probability of landslide magnitude. In total 18 specific hazard scenarios were generated using the three magnitude classes and six return periods (1, 3, 5, 15, 25, and 50 years. The assessment of the vulnerability of the road and railway line was based on damage records whereas the vulnerability of different types of vehicles and people was subjectively assessed based on limited historic incidents. Direct specific loss for the alignments (railway line and road, vehicles (train, bus, lorry, car and motorbike was expressed in monetary value (US$, and direct specific loss of life of commuters was expressed in annual probability of death. Indirect specific loss (US$ derived from the traffic interruption was evaluated considering alternative driving routes, and includes losses resulting from additional fuel consumption, additional travel cost, loss of income to the local business, and loss of revenue to the railway department. The results indicate that the total loss, including both direct and indirect loss, from 1 to 50 years return period, varies from

  14. A Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment for Salmonella in Pigs for the European Union.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snary, Emma L; Swart, Arno N; Simons, Robin R L; Domingues, Ana Rita Calado; Vigre, Hakan; Evers, Eric G; Hald, Tine; Hill, Andrew A

    2016-03-01

    A farm-to-consumption quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) for Salmonella in pigs in the European Union has been developed for the European Food Safety Authority. The primary aim of the QMRA was to assess the impact of hypothetical reductions of slaughter-pig prevalence and the impact of control measures on the risk of human Salmonella infection. A key consideration during the QMRA development was the characterization of variability between E.U. Member States (MSs), and therefore a generic MS model was developed that accounts for differences in pig production, slaughterhouse practices, and consumption patterns. To demonstrate the parameterization of the model, four case study MSs were selected that illustrate the variability in production of pork meat and products across MSs. For the case study MSs the average probability of illness was estimated to be between 1 in 100,000 and 1 in 10 million servings given consumption of one of the three product types considered (pork cuts, minced meat, and fermented ready-to-eat sausages). Further analyses of the farm-to-consumption QMRA suggest that the vast majority of human risk derives from infected pigs with a high concentration of Salmonella in their feces (≥10(4) CFU/g). Therefore, it is concluded that interventions should be focused on either decreasing the level of Salmonella in the feces of infected pigs, the introduction of a control step at the abattoir to reduce the transfer of feces to the exterior of the pig, or a control step to reduce the level of Salmonella on the carcass post-evisceration. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  15. Development of a Quantitative Framework for Regulatory Risk Assessments: Probabilistic Approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilmot, R.D.

    2003-11-01

    The Swedish regulators have been active in the field of performance assessment for many years and have developed sophisticated approaches to the development of scenarios and other aspects of assessments. These assessments have generally used dose as the assessment end-point and have been based on deterministic calculations. Recently introduced Swedish regulations have introduced a risk criterion for radioactive waste disposal: the annual risk of harmful effects after closure of a disposal facility should not exceed 10 -6 for a representative individual in the group exposed to the greatest risk. A recent review of the overall structure of risk assessments in safety cases concluded that there are a number of decisions and assumptions in the development of a risk assessment methodology that could potentially affect the calculated results. Regulatory understanding of these issues, potentially supported by independent calculations, is important in preparing for review of a proponent's risk assessment. One approach to evaluating risk in performance assessments is to use the concept of probability to express uncertainties, and to propagate these probabilities through the analysis. This report describes the various approaches available for undertaking such probabilistic analyses, both as a means of accounting for uncertainty in the determination of risk and more generally as a means of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. The report discusses the overall nature of probabilistic analyses and how they are applied to both the calculation of risk and sensitivity analyses. Several approaches are available, including differential analysis, response surface methods and simulation. Simulation is the approach most commonly used, both in assessments for radioactive waste disposal and in other subject areas, and the report describes the key stages of this approach in detail. Decisions relating to the development of input PDFs, sampling methods (including approaches to the treatment

  16. Use of different exposure metrics for understanding multi-modal travel injury risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Ilgin Guler

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this work is to identify characteristics of different metrics of exposure for quantifying multi-modal travel injury risk. First, a discussion on the use of time-based and trip-based metrics for road user exposure to injury risk, considering multiple travel modes, is presented. The main difference between a time-based and trip-based metric is argued to be that a time-based metric reflects the actual duration of time spent on the road exposed to the travel risks. This can be proven to be important when considering multiple modes since different modes typically different speeds and average travel distances. Next, the use of total number of trips, total time traveled, and mode share (time-based or trip-based is considered to compare the injury risk of a given mode at different locations. It is argued that using mode share the safety concept which focuses on absolute numbers can be generalized. Quantitative results are also obtained from combining travel survey data with police collision reports for ten counties in California. The data are aggregated for five modes: (i cars, (ii SUVs, (iii transit riders, (iv bicyclists, and (v pedestrians. These aggregated data are used to compare travel risk of different modes with time-based or trip-based exposure metrics. These quantitative results confirm the initial qualitative discussions. As the penetration of mobile probes for transportation data collection increases, the insights of this study can provide guidance on how to best utilize the added value of such data to better quantify travel injury risk, and improve safety.

  17. Toward understanding the active SETI debate: Insights from risk communication and perception

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korbitz, Adam

    2014-12-01

    Insights from the robust field of risk communication and perception have to date been almost totally absent from the policy debate regarding the relative risks and merits of Active SETI or Messaging to Extraterrestrial Intelligence (METI). For many years, the practice (or proposed practice) of Active SETI has generated a vigorous and sometimes heated policy debate within the scientific community. There have also been some negative reactions in the media toward the activities of those engaged in Active SETI. Risk communication is a scientific approach to communication regarding situations involving potentially sensitive or controversial situations in which there may be high public concern and low public trust. The discipline has found wide acceptance and utility in fields such as public health, industrial regulation and environmental protection. Insights from the scientific field of risk communication (such as omission bias, loss aversion, the availability heuristic, probability neglect, and the general human preference for voluntary over involuntary risks) may help those who have participated in either side of the debate over Active SETI to better understand why the debate has taken on this posture. Principles of risk communication and risk perception may also help those engaged in Active SETI to communicate more effectively with other scientists, the public, with the media, and with policy makers regarding their activities and to better understand and respond to concerns expressed regarding the activity.

  18. Quantitative risk-based approach for improving water quality management in mining.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Wenying; Moran, Chris J; Vink, Sue

    2011-09-01

    The potential environmental threats posed by freshwater withdrawal and mine water discharge are some of the main drivers for the mining industry to improve water management. The use of multiple sources of water supply and introducing water reuse into the mine site water system have been part of the operating philosophies employed by the mining industry to realize these improvements. However, a barrier to implementation of such good water management practices is concomitant water quality variation and the resulting impacts on the efficiency of mineral separation processes, and an increased environmental consequence of noncompliant discharge events. There is an increasing appreciation that conservative water management practices, production efficiency, and environmental consequences are intimately linked through the site water system. It is therefore essential to consider water management decisions and their impacts as an integrated system as opposed to dealing with each impact separately. This paper proposes an approach that could assist mine sites to manage water quality issues in a systematic manner at the system level. This approach can quantitatively forecast the risk related with water quality and evaluate the effectiveness of management strategies in mitigating the risk by quantifying implications for production and hence economic viability.

  19. Safety evaluation of disposable baby diapers using principles of quantitative risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rai, Prashant; Lee, Byung-Mu; Liu, Tsung-Yun; Yuhui, Qin; Krause, Edburga; Marsman, Daniel S; Felter, Susan

    2009-01-01

    Baby diapers are complex products consisting of multiple layers of materials, most of which are not in direct contact with the skin. The safety profile of a diaper is determined by the biological properties of individual components and the extent to which the baby is exposed to each component during use. Rigorous evaluation of the toxicological profile and realistic exposure conditions of each material is important to ensure the overall safety of the diaper under normal and foreseeable use conditions. Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) principles may be applied to the safety assessment of diapers and similar products. Exposure to component materials is determined by (1) considering the conditions of product use, (2) the degree to which individual layers of the product are in contact with the skin during use, and (3) the extent to which some components may be extracted by urine and delivered to skin. This assessment of potential exposure is then combined with data from standard safety assessments of components to determine the margin of safety (MOS). This study examined the application of QRA to the safety evaluation of baby diapers, including risk assessments for some diaper ingredient chemicals for which establishment of acceptable and safe exposure levels were demonstrated.

  20. Utilization of quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs) in risk assessment: Alkylphenols

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beck, B.D.; Toole, A.P.; Callahan, B.G.; Siddhanti, S.K. (Gradient Corporation, Cambridge, MA (United States))

    1991-12-01

    Alkylphenols are a class of environmentally pervasive compounds, found both in natural (e.g., crude oils) and in anthropogenic (e.g., wood tar, coal gasification waste) materials. Despite the frequent environmental occurrence of these chemicals, there is a limited toxicity database on alkylphenols. The authors have therefore developed a 'toxicity equivalence approach' for alkylphenols which is based on their ability to inhibit, in a specific manner, the enzyme cyclooxygenase. Enzyme-inhibiting ability for individual alkylphenols can be estimated based on the quantitative structure-activity relationship developed by Dewhirst (1980) and is a function of the free hydroxyl group, electron-donating ring substituents, and hydrophobic aromatic ring substituents. The authors evaluated the toxicological significance of cyclooxygenase inhibition by comparison of the inhibitory capacity of alkylphenols with the inhibitory capacity of acetylsalicylic acid, or aspirin, a compound whose low-level effects are due to cyclooxygenase inhibition. Since nearly complete absorption for alkylphenols and aspirin is predicted, based on estimates of hydrophobicity and fraction of charged molecules at gastrointestinal pHs, risks from alkylphenols can be expressed directly in terms of 'milligram aspirin equivalence,' without correction for absorption differences. They recommend this method for assessing risks of mixtures of alkylphenols, especially for those compounds with no chronic toxicity data.38 references.

  1. A combined usage of stochastic and quantitative risk assessment methods in the worksites: Application on an electric power provider

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marhavilas, P.K.; Koulouriotis, D.E.

    2012-01-01

    An individual method cannot build either a realistic forecasting model or a risk assessment process in the worksites, and future perspectives should focus on the combined forecasting/estimation approach. The main purpose of this paper is to gain insight into a risk prediction and estimation methodological framework, using the combination of three different methods, including the proportional quantitative-risk-assessment technique (PRAT), the time-series stochastic process (TSP), and the method of estimating the societal-risk (SRE) by F–N curves. In order to prove the usefulness of the combined usage of stochastic and quantitative risk assessment methods, an application on an electric power provider industry is presented to, using empirical data.

  2. A quantitative approach to the risk perception associated with nuclear safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Black, S.

    2015-01-01

    Subjective risk perception associated with nuclear safety is hard-wired into the general public psyche; but as real as this 'feels', and as much as it requires to be respected in a democracy, misguided risk perception on nuclear safety can create its own perils for humans. The objective of this paper is to create a better understanding of the phenomena of risk perception associated with nuclear safety presented by journalistic media. It will attempt to quantify the manifestation of risk perception associated with nuclear safety by providing comparison between the media coverage of nuclear and industrial accidents of similar magnitude. It will utilise the Fog Index, a mathematical formula that defines the readability of an article, allowing for an unbiased numerical comparison on 'readability' to be derived. Fog Index is expressed as: Fog Index = 0.4(N/S + 100*L/N), where N is the number of words in the article, S is the number of sentences and L is the number of words with 3 syllables or more. To provide consistency, the medium chosen to compare industrial accidents are reports extracted from 'The Times' newspaper, written at the time of the accidents and concerning Chernobyl and Bhopal disasters. 'The Times' is respected newspaper, written for a knowledgeable audience who have an in-depth interest in the news from the UK and abroad; subsequently this causes it to have a relatively high Fog index, compared to its tabloid counterparts. The higher the Fog Index, the more education the reader requires to fully understand the article, a Fog Index of 12 is the limit for the majority of the general public. Research found that reporting of nuclear safety accidents has a Fog Index of approximately 14 while it was only of 10 for Bhopal accident. These values go someway in demonstrating that the complexity of media information on nuclear safety transferred via journalistic media is beyond what can reasonably be expected to be

  3. Risk factors for venous thrombosis - current understanding from an epidemiological point of view

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lijfering, Willem M.; Rosendaal, Frits R.; Cannegieter, Suzanne C.

    P>Epidemiological research throughout the last 50 years has provided the long list of risk factors for venous thrombosis that are known today. Although this has advanced our current understanding about the aetiology of thrombosis, it does not give us all the answers: many people have several of

  4. Exploring Young Children's Understanding of Risks Associated with Internet Usage and Their Concepts of Management Strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ey, Lesley-Anne; Cupit, C. Glenn

    2011-01-01

    The Internet provides remarkable opportunities for children's learning and development. Nevertheless, it is unregulated and hard to control, which potentially places children at risk of exploitation. This study examined five-eight-year-old children's understanding of dangers associated with the Internet, management strategies and sources of their…

  5. Understanding of the risk of HIV infection among the elderly in Ga ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A study was carried out in Ga-Rankuwa, a black township in Gauteng Province, South Africa to explore and describe the understanding of these elderly people regarding their risks of HIV infection and AIDS. Using a qualitative, exploratory design, three focus-group interviews were conducted with 32 women aged over 50 ...

  6. What Makes Youth Harass Their Immigrant Peers? Understanding the Risk Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayram Özdemir, Sevgi; Özdemir, Metin; Stattin, Håkan

    2016-01-01

    Immigrant youth are at risk of experiencing harassment in school; however, we have only limited understanding of what makes youth harass their peers on ground of their ethnic origin. To address this major limitation, we examined (a) whether youth's negative attitudes toward immigrants impact their engagement in ethnic harassment over time and (b)…

  7. Co-created Facilitation and Perspective Plurality to Foster Mutual Understandings of Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mitchell, Robb

    2014-01-01

    This paper identifies a key mechanism and its constituent qualities, for facilitating mutual understandings of risk. The focus of participatory workshops has expanded towards addressing broader questions of strategy, business models and other organizational and inter-organisational issues. To dev...

  8. The distinction between risk and hazard: understanding and use in stakeholder communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheer, Dirk; Benighaus, Christina; Benighaus, Ludger; Renn, Ortwin; Gold, Stefan; Röder, Bettina; Böl, Gaby-Fleur

    2014-07-01

    A major issue in all risk communication efforts is the distinction between the terms "risk" and "hazard." The potential to harm a target such as human health or the environment is normally defined as a hazard, whereas risk also encompasses the probability of exposure and the extent of damage. What can be observed again and again in risk communication processes are misunderstandings and communication gaps related to these crucial terms. We asked a sample of 53 experts from public authorities, business and industry, and environmental and consumer organizations in Germany to outline their understanding and use of these terms using both the methods of expert interviews and focus groups. The empirical study made clear that the terms risk and hazard are perceived and used very differently in risk communication depending on the perspective of the stakeholders. Several factors can be identified, such as responsibility for hazard avoidance, economic interest, or a watchdog role. Thus, communication gaps can be reduced to a four-fold problem matrix comprising a semantic, conceptual, strategic, and control problem. The empirical study made clear that risks and hazards are perceived very differently depending on the stakeholders' perspective. Their own worldviews played a major role in their specific use of the two terms hazards and risks in communication. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  9. How lay people understand and make sense of personalized disease risk information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damman, Olga C; Bogaerts, Nina M M; van den Haak, Maaike J; Timmermans, Danielle R M

    2017-10-01

    Disease risk calculators are increasingly web-based, but previous studies have shown that risk information often poses problems for lay users. To examine how lay people understand the result derived from an online cardiometabolic risk calculator. A qualitative study was performed, using the risk calculator in the Dutch National Prevention Program for cardiometabolic diseases. The study consisted of three parts: (i) attention: completion of the risk calculator while an eye tracker registered eye movements; (ii) recall: completion of a recall task; and (iii) interpretation: participation in a semi-structured interview. We recruited people from the target population through an advertisement in a local newspaper; 16 people participated in the study, which took place in our university laboratory. Eye-tracking data showed that participants looked most extensively at numerical risk information. Percentages were recalled well, whereas natural frequencies and verbal labels were remembered less well. Five qualitative themes were derived from the interview data: (i) numerical information does not really sink in; (ii) the verbal categorical label made no real impact on people; (iii) people relied heavily on existing knowledge and beliefs; (iv) people zoomed in on risk factors, especially family history of diseases; and (v) people often compared their situation to that of their peers. Although people paid attention to and recalled the risk information to a certain extent, they seemed to have difficulty in properly using this information for interpreting their risk. © 2017 The Authors Health Expectations Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. QMRAspot: a tool for Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment from surface water to potable water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schijven, Jack F; Teunis, Peter F M; Rutjes, Saskia A; Bouwknegt, Martijn; de Roda Husman, Ana Maria

    2011-11-01

    In the Netherlands, a health based target for microbially safe drinking water is set at less than one infection per 10,000 persons per year. For the assessment of the microbial safety of drinking water, Dutch drinking water suppliers must conduct a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) at least every three years for the so-called index pathogens enterovirus, Campylobacter, Cryptosporidium and Giardia. In order to collect raw data in the proper format and to automate the process of QMRA, an interactive user-friendly computational tool, QMRAspot, was developed to analyze and conduct QMRA for drinking water produced from surface water. This paper gives a description of the raw data requirements for QMRA as well as a functional description of the tool. No extensive prior knowledge about QMRA modeling is required by the user, because QMRAspot provides guidance to the user on the quantity, type and format of raw data and performs a complete analysis of the raw data to yield a risk outcome for drinking water consumption that can be compared with other production locations, a legislative standard or an acceptable health based target. The uniform approach promotes proper collection and usage of raw data and, warrants quality of the risk assessment as well as enhances efficiency, i.e., less time is required. QMRAspot may facilitate QMRA for drinking water suppliers worldwide. The tool aids policy makers and other involved parties in formulating mitigation strategies, and prioritization and evaluation of effective preventive measures as integral part of water safety plans. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Parasite to patient: A quantitative risk model for Trichinella spp. in pork and wild boar meat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franssen, Frits; Swart, Arno; van der Giessen, Joke; Havelaar, Arie; Takumi, Katsuhisa

    2017-01-16

    Consumption of raw or inadequately cooked pork meat may result in trichinellosis, a human disease due to nematodes of the genus Trichinella. In many countries worldwide, individual control of pig carcasses at meat inspection is mandatory but incurs high costs in relation to absence of positive carcasses from pigs reared under controlled housing. EU regulation 2015/1375 implements an alternative risk-based approach, in view of absence of positive findings in pigs under controlled housing conditions. Moreover, Codex Alimentarius guidelines for the control of Trichinella spp. in meat of suidae have been published (CAC, 2015) and used in conjunction with the OIE terrestrial Animal health code, to provide guidance to governments and industry on risk based control measures to prevent human exposure to Trichinella spp. and to facilitate international pork trade. To further support such a risk-based approach, we model the risk of human trichinellosis due to consumption of meat from infected pigs, raised under non-controlled housing and wild boar, using Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) methods. Our model quantifies the distribution of Trichinella muscle larve (ML) in swine, test sensitivity at carcass control, partitioning of edible pork parts, Trichinella ML distribution in edible muscle types, heat inactivation by cooking and portion sizes. The resulting exposure estimate is combined with a dose response model for Trichinella species to estimate the incidence of human illness after consumption of infected meat. Paramater estimation is based on experimental and observational datasets. In Poland, which served as example, we estimated an average incidence of 0.90 (95%CI: 0.00-3.68) trichinellosis cases per million persons per year (Mpy) due to consumption of pork from pigs that were reared under non-controlled housing, and 1.97 (95%CI: 0.82-4.00) cases per Mpy due to consumption of wild boar. The total estimated incidence of human trichinellosis attributed to

  12. Quantitative risk analysis using vulnerability indicators to assess food insecurity in the Niayes agricultural region of West Senegal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mateugue Diack

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available There is an increasing need to develop indicators of vulnerability and adaptive capacity to determine the robustness of response strategies over time and better understand the underlying processes. This study aimed to determine levels of risk of food insecurity using defined vulnerability indicators. For the purpose of this study, factors influencing food insecurity and different vulnerable indicators were examined using quantitative and qualitative research methods. Observations made on the physical environment (using tools for spatial analysis and socio-economic surveys conducted with local populations have quantified vulnerability indicators in the Niayes agricultural region. Application of the Classification and Regression Tree (CART model has enabled us to quantify the level of vulnerability of the zone. The results show that the decrease in agricultural surface areas is the most discriminant one in this study. The speed of reduction of the agricultural areas has specially increased between 2009 and 2014, with a loss of 65% of these areas. Therefore, a decision-making system, centred on the need for reinforcing the resilience of local populations, by preserving the agricultural vocation of the Niayes region and even in the Sahelian regions requires support and extension services for the farmers in order to promote sustainable agricultural practices.

  13. Quantitative risk analysis using vulnerability indicators to assess food insecurity in the Niayes agricultural region of West Senegal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mateugue Diack

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available There is an increasing need to develop indicators of vulnerability and adaptive capacity to determine the robustness of response strategies over time and better understand the underlying processes. This study aimed to determine levels of risk of food insecurity using defined vulnerability indicators. For the purpose of this study, factors influencing food insecurity and different vulnerable indicators were examined using quantitative and qualitative research methods. Observations made on the physical environment (using tools for spatial analysis and socio-economic surveys conducted with local populations have quantified vulnerability indicators in the Niayes agricultural region. Application of the Classification and Regression Tree (CART model has enabled us to quantify the level of vulnerability of the zone. The results show that the decrease in agricultural surface areas is the most discriminant one in this study. The speed of reduction of the agricultural areas has specially increased between 2009 and 2014, with a loss of 65% of these areas. Therefore, a decision-making system, centred on the need for reinforcing the resilience of local populations, by preserving the agricultural vocation of the Niayes region and even in the Sahelian regions requires support and extension services for the farmers in order to promote sustainable agricultural practices.

  14. Understanding household preferences for hurricane risk mitigation information: evidence from survey responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatterjee, Chiradip; Mozumder, Pallab

    2014-06-01

    Risk information is critical to adopting mitigation measures, and seeking risk information is influenced by a variety of factors. An essential component of the recently adopted My Safe Florida Home (MSFH) program by the State of Florida is to provide homeowners with pertinent risk information to facilitate hurricane risk mitigation activities. We develop an analytical framework to understand household preferences for hurricane risk mitigation information through allowing an intensive home inspection. An empirical analysis is used to identify major drivers of household preferences to receive personalized information regarding recommended hurricane risk mitigation measures. A variety of empirical specifications show that households with home insurance, prior experience with damages, and with a higher sense of vulnerability to be affected by hurricanes are more likely to allow inspection to seek information. However, households with more members living in the home and households who live in manufactured/mobile homes are less likely to allow inspection. While findings imply MSFH program's ability to link incentives offered by private and public agencies in promoting mitigation, households that face a disproportionately higher level of risk can get priority to make the program more effective. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  15. An Approach for Understanding and Promoting Coal Mine Safety by Exploring Coal Mine Risk Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongliang Deng

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Capturing the interrelations among risks is essential to thoroughly understand and promote coal mining safety. From this standpoint, 105 risks and 135 interrelations among risks had been identified from 126 typical accidents, which were also the foundation of constructing coal mine risk network (CMRN. Based on the complex network theory and Pajek, six parameters (i.e., network diameter, network density, average path length, degree, betweenness, and clustering coefficient were employed to reveal the topological properties of CMRN. As indicated by the results, CMRN possesses scale-free network property because its cumulative degree distribution obeys power-law distribution. This means that CMRN is robust to random hazard and vulnerable to deliberate attack. CMRN is also a small-world network due to its relatively small average path length as well as high clustering coefficient, implying that accident propagation in CMRN is faster than regular network. Furthermore, the effect of risk control is explored. According to the result, it shows that roof collapse, fire, and gas concentration exceeding limit refer to three most valuable targets for risk control among all the risks. This study will help offer recommendations and proposals for making beforehand strategies that can restrain original risks and reduce accidents.

  16. Applying the reasoned action approach to understanding health protection and health risk behaviors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conner, Mark; McEachan, Rosemary; Lawton, Rebecca; Gardner, Peter

    2017-12-01

    The Reasoned Action Approach (RAA) developed out of the Theory of Reasoned Action and Theory of Planned Behavior but has not yet been widely applied to understanding health behaviors. The present research employed the RAA in a prospective design to test predictions of intention and action for groups of protection and risk behaviors separately in the same sample. To test the RAA for health protection and risk behaviors. Measures of RAA components plus past behavior were taken in relation to eight protection and six risk behaviors in 385 adults. Self-reported behavior was assessed one month later. Multi-level modelling showed instrumental attitude, experiential attitude, descriptive norms, capacity and past behavior were significant positive predictors of intentions to engage in protection or risk behaviors. Injunctive norms were only significant predictors of intention in protection behaviors. Autonomy was a significant positive predictor of intentions in protection behaviors and a negative predictor in risk behaviors (the latter relationship became non-significant when controlling for past behavior). Multi-level modelling showed that intention, capacity, and past behavior were significant positive predictors of action for both protection and risk behaviors. Experiential attitude and descriptive norm were additional significant positive predictors of risk behaviors. The RAA has utility in predicting both protection and risk health behaviors although the power of predictors may vary across these types of health behavior. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Understanding rural poverty and investment in agriculture: an assessment of integrated quantitative and qualitative research in Western Kenya

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Place, F.; Adato, M.; Hebinck, P.G.M.

    2007-01-01

    This article addresses the methodological complexities inherent in researching poverty, examining how to differentiate the poor from other social groups, and how to assess the relationships between poverty and technology adoption and impact. The use of specific types of quantitative and qualitative

  18. Understanding rural poverty and investment in agriculture: an assessment of integreated quantitative and qualitative research in Western Kenya

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Place, F.; Adato, M.; Hebinck, P.G.M.

    2005-01-01

    This article addresses the methodological complexities inherent in researching poverty, examining how to differentiate the poor from other social groups, and how to assess the relationships between poverty and technology adoption and impact. The use of specific types of quantitative and qualitative

  19. Reprogenetics, Genetic Tools and Reproductive Risk: Attitudes and Understanding Among Ethnic Groups in Israel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simonstein, Frida; Mashiach-Eizenberg, Michal

    2016-02-01

    The present study investigated a possible relationship between the attitudes toward genetic technologies and the understanding of genetics, reproduction, and reproductive risk among Israeli Arabs and Israeli Jews. The study included 203 respondents, who answered a structured self-report questionnaire. They were recruited using a snowball method, which increased the participation of Israeli Arabs in the sample, although the sample was not representative of the Israeli population as a whole (there were more Arabs and fewer men). The respondents in this study expressed a positive attitude toward genetic technologies, but were less in favor of using genetic tools for non-medical purposes. Respondents of both groups were not knowledgeable of genetics; however, they scored higher on the items related to reproductive risk, which suggests that some awareness about genetic risk exists in both sectors of the Israeli population. Nevertheless, Israeli Arabs were less positive than Israeli Jews regarding the application of genetic tools. Moreover, although an understanding of genetics correlated positively with the attitude among Arabs, it did not affect the attitude of Jews, who remained very positive, regardless of their level of understanding. This result suggests that other social and cultural factors, besides understanding, might be at work among these two major ethnic sectors. Further studies that integrate educational, social, and cultural aspects among ethnic sectors of the population are required to improve health services and genetic counselling in Israel and in other countries.

  20. Measuring and Managing Army Supply Chain Risk: A Quantitative Approach by Item Number and Commercial Entity Code

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    identifying risks include brainstorming, interviews, workshops, supply chain mapping/description,7 the Delphi Method,8 Fault or Event Tree Analysis9... Delphi Method relies on a series of questionnaires among a group of experts to discern a consensus as well as reasons for disagreement. For further...tree analysis is used for qualitative and quantitative analysis of systems, it is essential that for a risk every cause is considered in the fault

  1. Characterizing trabecular bone structure for assessing vertebral fracture risk on volumetric quantitative computed tomography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagarajan, Mahesh B.; Checefsky, Walter A.; Abidin, Anas Z.; Tsai, Halley; Wang, Xixi; Hobbs, Susan K.; Bauer, Jan S.; Baum, Thomas; Wismüller, Axel

    2015-03-01

    While the proximal femur is preferred for measuring bone mineral density (BMD) in fracture risk estimation, the introduction of volumetric quantitative computed tomography has revealed stronger associations between BMD and spinal fracture status. In this study, we propose to capture properties of trabecular bone structure in spinal vertebrae with advanced second-order statistical features for purposes of fracture risk assessment. For this purpose, axial multi-detector CT (MDCT) images were acquired from 28 spinal vertebrae specimens using a whole-body 256-row CT scanner with a dedicated calibration phantom. A semi-automated method was used to annotate the trabecular compartment in the central vertebral slice with a circular region of interest (ROI) to exclude cortical bone; pixels within were converted to values indicative of BMD. Six second-order statistical features derived from gray-level co-occurrence matrices (GLCM) and the mean BMD within the ROI were then extracted and used in conjunction with a generalized radial basis functions (GRBF) neural network to predict the failure load of the specimens; true failure load was measured through biomechanical testing. Prediction performance was evaluated with a root-mean-square error (RMSE) metric. The best prediction performance was observed with GLCM feature `correlation' (RMSE = 1.02 ± 0.18), which significantly outperformed all other GLCM features (p < 0.01). GLCM feature correlation also significantly outperformed MDCTmeasured mean BMD (RMSE = 1.11 ± 0.17) (p< 10-4). These results suggest that biomechanical strength prediction in spinal vertebrae can be significantly improved through characterization of trabecular bone structure with GLCM-derived texture features.

  2. Quantitative falls risk estimation through multi-sensor assessment of standing balance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greene, Barry R; McGrath, Denise; Walsh, Lorcan; Doheny, Emer P; McKeown, David; Garattini, Chiara; Cunningham, Clodagh; Crosby, Lisa; Caulfield, Brian; Kenny, Rose A

    2012-01-01

    Falls are the most common cause of injury and hospitalization and one of the principal causes of death and disability in older adults worldwide. Measures of postural stability have been associated with the incidence of falls in older adults. The aim of this study was to develop a model that accurately classifies fallers and non-fallers using novel multi-sensor quantitative balance metrics that can be easily deployed into a home or clinic setting. We compared the classification accuracy of our model with an established method for falls risk assessment, the Berg balance scale. Data were acquired using two sensor modalities—a pressure sensitive platform sensor and a body-worn inertial sensor, mounted on the lower back—from 120 community dwelling older adults (65 with a history of falls, 55 without, mean age 73.7 ± 5.8 years, 63 female) while performing a number of standing balance tasks in a geriatric research clinic. Results obtained using a support vector machine yielded a mean classification accuracy of 71.52% (95% CI: 68.82–74.28) in classifying falls history, obtained using one model classifying all data points. Considering male and female participant data separately yielded classification accuracies of 72.80% (95% CI: 68.85–77.17) and 73.33% (95% CI: 69.88–76.81) respectively, leading to a mean classification accuracy of 73.07% in identifying participants with a history of falls. Results compare favourably to those obtained using the Berg balance scale (mean classification accuracy: 59.42% (95% CI: 56.96–61.88)). Results from the present study could lead to a robust method for assessing falls risk in both supervised and unsupervised environments. (paper)

  3. Quantitative risk assessment of antimicrobials in biosolids applied on agricultural land and potential translocation into food.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clarke, Rachel; Healy, Mark G; Fenton, Owen; Cummins, Enda

    2018-04-01

    The use of biosolids as a fertiliser may be an indirect route for contaminants into the food chain. One of the main concerns regarding the spreading of biosolids on agricultural land is the potential uptake of contaminants into plants which may bio-transfer into grazing animals that supply the food chain directly (e.g. meat and milk) and hence are subsequently consumed. The aim of this project was to create a quantitative risk assessment model to estimate the fate and translocation of triclosan (TCS) and triclocarban (TCC) into the feed (grass) and food chain with subsequent human exposure. The model's results indicate that TCS and TCC have low potential to transfer into milk and beef following the ingestion of contaminated grass by dairy cows. Mean estimated TCS and TCC residues in milk and beef show that TCC had the greatest concentration (mean values of 7.77×10 -6 mgkg -1 in milk and 1.36×10 -4 mgkg -1 in beef). Human exposure results show that TCC was greater for milk consumption in infants (1-4years) (mean value 1.14×10 -7 mgkg -1 bwd -1 ) and for beef consumption by teens (12-17years) (mean value 6.87×10 -8 mgkg -1 bwd -1 ). Concentrations of TCS and TCC were well below the estimated acceptable daily intake (ADI). Human health risk was estimated by evaluation of the hazard quotient (HQ), which used the NOAEL as a toxicity endpoint, combined with milk and beef human exposure estimates. HQ results show that all values were model is a valuable tool in which to ascertain the potential transfer of contaminants in the environment into animal forage with knock on consequences for exposure through the human food chain. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Experts’ understandings of drinking water risk management in a climate change scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Åsa Boholm

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The challenges for society presented by climate change are complex and demanding. This paper focuses on one particular resource of utmost necessity and vulnerability to climate change: namely, the provisioning of safe drinking water. From a critical perspective on the role of expertise in risk debates, this paper looks at how Swedish experts understand risk to drinking water in a climate change scenario and how they reason about challenges to risk management and adaptation strategies. The empirical material derives from ten in-depth semi-structured interviews with experts, employed both at government agencies and at universities, and with disciplinary backgrounds in a variety of fields (water engineering, planning, geology and environmental chemistry. The experts understand risk factors affecting both drinking water quality and availability as complex and systemically interrelated. A lack of political saliency of drinking water as a public service is identified as an obstacle to the development of robust adaptation strategies. Another area of concern relates to the geographical, organizational and institutional boundaries (regulatory, political and epistemological between the plethora of public actors with partly overlapping and sometimes unclear responsibilities for the provisioning of safe drinking water. The study concludes that climate change adaptation regarding drinking water provisioning will require a new integration of the knowledge of systemic risk relations, in combination with more efficient agency collaboration based on a clear demarcation of responsibility between actors.

  5. Utilizing toxicogenomic data to understand chemical mechanism of action in risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, Vickie S.; Keshava, Nagalakshmi; Hester, Susan; Segal, Deborah; Chiu, Weihsueh; Thompson, Chad M.; Euling, Susan Y.

    2013-01-01

    The predominant role of toxicogenomic data in risk assessment, thus far, has been one of augmentation of more traditional in vitro and in vivo toxicology data. This article focuses on the current available examples of instances where toxicogenomic data has been evaluated in human health risk assessment (e.g., acetochlor and arsenicals) which have been limited to the application of toxicogenomic data to inform mechanism of action. This article reviews the regulatory policy backdrop and highlights important efforts to ultimately achieve regulatory acceptance. A number of research efforts on specific chemicals that were designed for risk assessment purposes have employed mechanism or mode of action hypothesis testing and generating strategies. The strides made by large scale efforts to utilize toxicogenomic data in screening, testing, and risk assessment are also discussed. These efforts include both the refinement of methodologies for performing toxicogenomics studies and analysis of the resultant data sets. The current issues limiting the application of toxicogenomics to define mode or mechanism of action in risk assessment are discussed together with interrelated research needs. In summary, as chemical risk assessment moves away from a single mechanism of action approach toward a toxicity pathway-based paradigm, we envision that toxicogenomic data from multiple technologies (e.g., proteomics, metabolomics, transcriptomics, supportive RT-PCR studies) can be used in conjunction with one another to understand the complexities of multiple, and possibly interacting, pathways affected by chemicals which will impact human health risk assessment

  6. Current understanding of microplastics in the environment: Occurrence, fate, risks, and what we should do.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Jinping; Wang, Jundong; Cai, Liqi

    2017-05-01

    Microplastics pollution has been documented in the global environment, including at sea, in freshwater and in atmospheric fallout. Ingestion of microplastics by multiple kinds of organisms has been reported and has received increasing attention, because microplastics not only act as a source of toxic chemicals but also a sink for toxic chemicals. To better understand the great concerns about microplastics and associated toxic chemicals potential exposed to the organisms ingesting the debris, we should know more about the occurrence, fate, and risks of microplastics in the environment. What we should do depends on this better understanding. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:476-482. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

  7. Assessing vertebral fracture risk on volumetric quantitative computed tomography by geometric characterization of trabecular bone structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Checefsky, Walter A.; Abidin, Anas Z.; Nagarajan, Mahesh B.; Bauer, Jan S.; Baum, Thomas; Wismüller, Axel

    2016-03-01

    The current clinical standard for measuring Bone Mineral Density (BMD) is dual X-ray absorptiometry, however more recently BMD derived from volumetric quantitative computed tomography has been shown to demonstrate a high association with spinal fracture susceptibility. In this study, we propose a method of fracture risk assessment using structural properties of trabecular bone in spinal vertebrae. Experimental data was acquired via axial multi-detector CT (MDCT) from 12 spinal vertebrae specimens using a whole-body 256-row CT scanner with a dedicated calibration phantom. Common image processing methods were used to annotate the trabecular compartment in the vertebral slices creating a circular region of interest (ROI) that excluded cortical bone for each slice. The pixels inside the ROI were converted to values indicative of BMD. High dimensional geometrical features were derived using the scaling index method (SIM) at different radii and scaling factors (SF). The mean BMD values within the ROI were then extracted and used in conjunction with a support vector machine to predict the failure load of the specimens. Prediction performance was measured using the root-mean-square error (RMSE) metric and determined that SIM combined with mean BMD features (RMSE = 0.82 +/- 0.37) outperformed MDCT-measured mean BMD (RMSE = 1.11 +/- 0.33) (p < 10-4). These results demonstrate that biomechanical strength prediction in vertebrae can be significantly improved through the use of SIM-derived texture features from trabecular bone.

  8. Quantitative risk assessment of the effects of drought on extreme temperature in eastern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Zengchao; Hao, Fanghua; Singh, Vijay P.; Ouyang, Wei

    2017-09-01

    Hot extremes may lead to disastrous impacts on human health and agricultural production. Previous studies have revealed the feedback between drought and hot extremes in large regions of eastern China, while quantifying the impact of antecedent drought on hot extremes has been limited. This study aims at quantitatively assessing the risk of extreme temperature conditioned on the antecedent drought condition represented by Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) during summer time in eastern China. A copula-based model is proposed to construct the joint probability distribution of extreme temperature and drought based on 6 month SPI (SPI6). Accordingly, the conditional probability distribution is employed to quantify impacts of antecedent dry (and wet) conditions on the exceedance probability of extreme temperature. Results show that the likelihood of extreme temperature exceeding high quantiles is higher given antecedent dry conditions than that given antecedent wet conditions in large regions from southwestern to northeastern China. Specifically, the conditional probability difference of temperature exceeding 80th percentile given SPI6 lower than or equal to -0.5 and SPI6 higher than 0.5 is around 0.2-0.3. The case study of the 2006 summer hot extremes and drought in Sichuan and Chongqing region shows that the conditional return period of extreme temperature conditioned on antecedent drought is around 5-50 years shorter than univariate return period. These results quantify the impact of antecedent drought on subsequent extreme temperature and highlight the important role of antecedent drought in intensifying hot extremes in these regions.

  9. New Approaches to Transport Project Assessment: Reference Scenario Forecasting and Quantitative Risk Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang

    2010-01-01

    This presentation sets out a new methodology for examining the uncertainties relating to transport decision making based on infrastructure appraisals. Traditional transport infrastructure projects are based upon cost-benefit analyses in order to appraise the projects feasibility. Recent research ....... Additionally, the handling of uncertainties is supplemented by making use of the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits (user demands i.e. travel time savings) and underestimating investment costs.......This presentation sets out a new methodology for examining the uncertainties relating to transport decision making based on infrastructure appraisals. Traditional transport infrastructure projects are based upon cost-benefit analyses in order to appraise the projects feasibility. Recent research...... however has proved that the point estimates derived from such analyses are embedded with a large degree of uncertainty. Thus, a new scheme was proposed in terms of applying quantitative risk analysis (QRA) and Monte Carlo simulation in order to represent the uncertainties within the cost-benefit analysis...

  10. Quantitative Structure activity relationship and risk analysis of some pesticides in the cattle milk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Faqir Muhammad*, Ijaz Javed, Masood Akhtar1, Zia-ur-Rahman, Mian Muhammad Awais1, Muhammad Kashif Saleemi2 and Muhammad Irfan Anwar3

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Milk of cattle was collected from various localities of Faisalabad, Pakistan. Pesticides concentration was determined by HPLC using solid phase microextraction. The residue analysis revealed that about 40% milk samples were contaminated with pesticides. The mean±SE levels (ppm of cyhalothrin, endosulfan, chlorpyrifos and cypermethrin were 0.38±0.02, 0.26±0.02, 0.072±0.01 and 0.085±0.02, respectively. Quantitative structure activity relationship (QSAR models were used to predict the residues of unknown pesticides in the milk of cattle using their known physicochemical properties such as molecular weight (MW, melting point (MP, and log octanol to water partition coefficient (Ko/w as well as the milk characteristics such as pH, % fat, and specific gravity (SG in this species. The analysis revealed good correlation coefficients (R2 = 0.91 for cattle QSAR model. The coefficient for Ko/w for the studied pesticides was higher in cattle milk. Risk analysis was conducted based upon the determined pesticide residues and their provisional tolerable daily intakes. The daily intake levels of pesticide residues including cyhalothrin, chlorpyrifos and cypermethrin in present study were 3, 11, 2.5 times higher, respectively in cattle milk. This intake of pesticide contaminated milk might pose health hazards to humans in this locality.

  11. Understanding socioeconomic aspects of risk perception: Progress report, FY-1987: Working draft

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liebow, E.B.; Fawcett-Long, J.A.; Terrill, E.S.

    1987-11-01

    This report summarizes progress to date in understanding the issue of risk perception and its implications for the suitability of the Hanford Site in eastern Washington as a location for an underground radioactive waste repository. It presents some observations about the causes, consequences and processes of risk perception gained from a review of the professional literature. It also contains an extensive working bibliography of useful reference materials, and a compilation of abstracts from selected articles that are felt to be of particular relevance to the BWIP licensing and institutional support efforts. 293 refs

  12. Quantitative and qualitative approaches in educational research — problems and examples of controlled understanding through interpretive methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neumann, Karl

    1987-06-01

    In the methodological discussion of recent years it has become apparent that many research problems, including problems relating to the theory of educational science, cannot be solved by using quantitative methods. The multifaceted aspects of human behaviour and all its environment-bound subtle nuances, especially the process of education or the development of identity, cannot fully be taken into account within a rigid neopositivist approach. In employing the paradigm of symbolic interactionism as a suitable model for the analysis of processes of education and formation, the research has generally to start out from complex reciprocal social interactions instead of unambigious connections of causes. In analysing several particular methodological problems, the article demonstrates some weaknesses of quantitative approaches and then shows the advantages in and the necessity for using qualitative research tools.

  13. Physically based dynamic run-out modelling for quantitative debris flow risk assessment: a case study in Tresenda, northern Italy

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Quan Luna, B.; Blahůt, Jan; Camera, C.; Van Westen, C.; Apuani, T.; Jetten, V.; Sterlacchini, S.

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 72, č. 3 (2014), s. 645-661 ISSN 1866-6280 Institutional support: RVO:67985891 Keywords : debris flow * FLO-2D * run-out * quantitative hazard and risk assessment * vulnerability * numerical modelling Subject RIV: DB - Geology ; Mineralogy Impact factor: 1.765, year: 2014

  14. Interactions between metal ions and biogeo-surfaces in soil and water : basis for quantitative risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weng, L.P.

    2002-01-01

    To provide the basis for an improved quantitative risk assessment of heavy metals in the environment, the interactions between the metal ions and the biogeo-surfaces in soil and water were studied using both experimental and modelling approaches.

    The

  15. Using Quantitative Spectrometry to Understand the Influence of Genetics and Nutritional Perturbations On the Virulence Potential ofStaphylococcus aureus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, Jessica R; Balasubramanian, Divya; Tam, Kayan; Askenazi, Manor; Copin, Richard; Shopsin, Bo; Torres, Victor J; Ueberheide, Beatrix M

    2017-04-01

    Staphylococcus aureus ( Sa ) is the leading cause of a variety of bacterial infections ranging from superficial skin infections to invasive and life threatening diseases such as septic bacteremia, necrotizing pneumonia, and endocarditis. The success of Sa as a human pathogen is contributed to its ability to adapt to different environments by changing expression, production, or secretion of virulence factors. Although Sa immune evasion is well-studied, the regulation of virulence factors under different nutrient and growth conditions is still not well understood. Here, we used label-free quantitative mass spectrometry to quantify and compare the Sa exoproteins ( i.e. exoproteomes) of master regulator mutants or established reference strains. Different environmental conditions were addressed by growing the bacteria in rich or minimal media at different phases of growth. We observed clear differences in the composition of the exoproteomes depending on the genetic background or growth conditions. The relative abundance of cytotoxins determined in our study correlated well with differences in cytotoxicity measured by lysis of human neutrophils. Our findings demonstrate that label-free quantitative mass spectrometry is a versatile tool for predicting the virulence of bacterial strains and highlights the importance of the experimental design for in vitro studies. Furthermore, the results indicate that label-free proteomics can be used to cluster isolates into groups with similar virulence properties, highlighting the power of label-free quantitative mass spectrometry to distinguish Sa strains. © 2017 by The American Society for Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Inc.

  16. Potential application of quantitative microbiological risk assessment techniques to an aseptic-UHT process in the food industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pujol, Laure; Albert, Isabelle; Johnson, Nicholas Brian; Membré, Jeanne-Marie

    2013-04-01

    Aseptic ultra-high-temperature (UHT)-type processed food products (e.g., milk or soup) are ready to eat products which are consumed extensively globally due to a combination of their comparative high quality and long shelf life, with no cold chain or other preservation requirements. Due to the inherent microbial vulnerability of aseptic-UHT product formulations, the safety and stability-related performance objectives (POs) required at the end of the manufacturing process are the most demanding found in the food industry. The key determinants to achieving sterility, and which also differentiates aseptic-UHT from in-pack sterilised products, are the challenges associated with the processes of aseptic filling and sealing. This is a complex process that has traditionally been run using deterministic or empirical process settings. Quantifying the risk of microbial contamination and recontamination along the aseptic-UHT process, using the scientifically based process quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA), offers the possibility to improve on the currently tolerable sterility failure rate (i.e., 1 defect per 10,000 units). In addition, benefits of applying QMRA are (i) to implement process settings in a transparent and scientific manner; (ii) to develop a uniform common structure whatever the production line, leading to a harmonisation of these process settings, and; (iii) to bring elements of a cost-benefit analysis of the management measures. The objective of this article is to explore how QMRA techniques and risk management metrics may be applied to aseptic-UHT-type processed food products. In particular, the aseptic-UHT process should benefit from a number of novel mathematical and statistical concepts that have been developed in the field of QMRA. Probabilistic techniques such as Monte Carlo simulation, Bayesian inference and sensitivity analysis, should help in assessing the compliance with safety and stability-related POs set at the end of the manufacturing

  17. Revisiting the ‘disaster and development’ debate – Toward a broader understanding of macroeconomic risk and resilience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junko Mochizuki

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Debate regarding the relationship between socioeconomic development and natural disasters remains at the fore of global discussions, as the potential risk from climate extremes and uncertainty pose an increasing threat to developmental prospects. This study reviews statistical investigations of disaster and development linkages, across topics of macroeconomic growth, public governance and others to identify key challenges to the current approach to macro-level statistical investigation. Both theoretically and qualitatively, disaster is known to affect development through a number of channels: haphazard development, weak institutions, lack of social safety nets and short-termism of our decision-making practices are some of the factors that drive natural disaster risk. Developmental potentials, including the prospects for sustainable and equitable growth, are in turn threatened by such accumulation of disaster risks. However, quantitative evidence regarding these complex causality chains remains contested due to several reasons. A number of theoretical and methodological limitations have been identified, including the use of GDP as a proxy measurement of welfare, issues with natural disaster damage reporting and the adoption of ad hoc model specifications and variables, which render interpretation and cross-comparison of statistical analysis difficult. Additionally, while greater attention is paid to economic and institutional parameters such as GDP, remittance, corruption and public expenditure as opposed to hard-to-quantify yet critical factors such as environmental conditions and social vulnerabilities. These are gaps in our approach that hamper our comprehensive understanding of the disaster-development nexus. Important areas for further research are identified, including recognizing and addressing the data constraints, incorporating sustainability and equity concerns through alternatives to GDP, and finding novel approaches to examining the

  18. Counselees’ expressed level of understanding of the risk estimate and surveillance recommendation are not associated with breast cancer surveillance adherence.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Albada, A.; Dulmen, S. van; Dijkstra, H.; Wieffer, I.; Witkamp, A.; Ausems, M.G.E.M.

    2016-01-01

    We studied counselees’ expressed understanding of the risk estimate and surveillance recommendation in the final consultation for breast cancer genetic counseling in relation with their risk perception, worry and cancer surveillance adherence 1 year post-counseling. Consecutive counselees were

  19. Trying not to get burned: understanding homeowners' wildfire risk-mitigation behaviors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brenkert-Smith, Hannah; Champ, Patricia A; Flores, Nicholas

    2012-12-01

    Three causes have been identified for the spiraling cost of wildfire suppression in the United States: climate change, fuel accumulation from past wildfire suppression, and development in fire-prone areas. Because little is likely to be performed to halt the effects of climate on wildfire risk, and because fuel-management budgets cannot keep pace with fuel accumulation let alone reverse it, changing the behaviors of existing and potential homeowners in fire-prone areas is the most promising approach to decreasing the cost of suppressing wildfires in the wildland-urban interface and increasing the odds of homes surviving wildfire events. Wildfire education efforts encourage homeowners to manage their property to decrease wildfire risk. Such programs may be more effective with a better understanding of the factors related to homeowners' decisions to undertake wildfire risk-reduction actions. In this study, we measured whether homeowners had implemented 12 wildfire risk-mitigation measures in 2 Colorado Front Range counties. We found that wildfire information received from local volunteer fire departments and county wildfire specialists, as well as talking with neighbors about wildfire, were positively associated with higher levels of mitigation. Firsthand experience in the form of preparing for or undertaking an evacuation was also associated with a higher level of mitigation. Finally, homeowners who perceived higher levels of wildfire risk on their property had undertaken higher levels of wildfire-risk mitigation on their property.

  20. Understanding radiation and risk: the importance of primary and secondary education

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tada, Junichiro

    1999-01-01

    In Japan's primary and secondary schools, radiation and radioactivity are taught as part of the curriculum dealing with social science subjects. Students learn much about the hazardous features of radiation, but lack the scientific understanding necessary to build a more balanced picture. Although the same point applies to education covering the harmful effects of volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, electrical storms and so on, public understanding of these events is relatively high and students are generally able to make informed judgments about the risks involved. By contrast, their limited understanding of radiation often contributes to fears that it is evil or even supernatural. To correct this distortion, it is important that primary and secondary education includes a scientific explanation of radiation. Like heat and light, radiation is fundamental to the history of the universe; and scientific education programs should give appropriate emphasis to this important subject. Students would then be able to make more objective judgments about the useful and hazardous aspects of radiation. (author)

  1. A neurogenetics approach to understanding individual differences in brain, behavior, and risk for psychopathology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogdan, R; Hyde, L W; Hariri, A R

    2013-03-01

    Neurogenetics research has begun to advance our understanding of how genetic variation gives rise to individual differences in brain function, which, in turn, shapes behavior and risk for psychopathology. Despite these advancements, neurogenetics research is currently confronted by three major challenges: (1) conducting research on individual variables with small effects, (2) absence of detailed mechanisms, and (3) a need to translate findings toward greater clinical relevance. In this review, we showcase techniques and developments that address these challenges and highlight the benefits of a neurogenetics approach to understanding brain, behavior and psychopathology. To address the challenge of small effects, we explore approaches including incorporating the environment, modeling epistatic relationships and using multilocus profiles. To address the challenge of mechanism, we explore how non-human animal research, epigenetics research and genome-wide association studies can inform our mechanistic understanding of behaviorally relevant brain function. Finally, to address the challenge of clinical relevance, we examine how neurogenetics research can identify novel therapeutic targets and for whom treatments work best. By addressing these challenges, neurogenetics research is poised to exponentially increase our understanding of how genetic variation interacts with the environment to shape the brain, behavior and risk for psychopathology.

  2. Quantitative microbiological risk assessment as a tool to obtain useful information for risk managers - specific application to Listeria monocytogenes and ready-to-eat meat products

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mataragas, M.; Zwietering, M.H.; Skandamis, P.N.; Drosinos, E.H.

    2010-01-01

    The presence of Listeria monocytogenes in a sliced cooked, cured ham-like meat product was quantitatively assessed. Sliced cooked, cured meat products are considered as high risk products. These ready-to-eat, RTE, products (no special preparation, e.g. thermal treatment, before eating is required),

  3. Understanding human - bat interactions in NSW, Australia: improving risk communication for prevention of Australian bat lyssavirus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quinn, Emma K; Massey, Peter D; Cox-Witton, Keren; Paterson, Beverley J; Eastwood, Keith; Durrheim, David N

    2014-07-02

    Australian bat lyssavirus (ABLV) infects a number of flying fox and insectivorous bats species in Australia. Human infection with ABLV is inevitably fatal unless prior vaccination and/or post-exposure treatment (PET) is given. Despite ongoing public health messaging about the risks associated with bat contact, surveillance data have revealed a four-fold increase in the number of people receiving PET for bat exposure in NSW between 2007 and 2011. Our study aimed to better understand these human - bat interactions in order to identify additional risk communication messages that could lower the risk of potential ABLV exposure. All people aged 18 years or over whom received PET for non-occupation related potential ABLV exposure in the Hunter New England Local Health District of Australia between July 2011 and July 2013 were considered eligible for the study. Eligible participants were invited to a telephone interview to explore the circumstances of their bat contact. Interviews were then transcribed and thematically analysed by two independent investigators. Of 21 eligible participants that were able to be contacted, 16 consented and participated in a telephone interview. Participants reported bats as being widespread in their environment but reported a general lack of awareness about ABLV, particularly the risk of disease from bat scratches. Participants who attempted to 'rescue' bats did so because of a deep concern for the bat's welfare. Participants reported a change in risk perception after the exposure event and provided suggestions for public health messages that could be used to raise awareness about ABLV. Reframing the current risk messages to account for the genuine concern of people for bat welfare may enhance the communication. The potential risk to the person and possible harm to the bat from an attempted 'rescue' should be promoted, along with contact details for animal rescue groups. The potential risk of ABLV from bat scratches merits greater emphasis.

  4. Where Lies the Risk? An Ecological Approach to Understanding Child Mental Health Risk and Vulnerabilities in Sub-Saharan Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atilola, Olayinka

    2014-01-01

    Efforts at improving child-health and development initiatives in sub-Saharan Africa had focused on the physical health of children due to the neglect of child and adolescent mental health (CAMH) policy initiatives. A thorough and broad-based understanding of the prevalent child mental-health risk and vulnerability factors is needed to successfully articulate CAMH policies. In this discourse, we present a narrative on the child mental-health risk and vulnerability factors in sub-Saharan Africa. Through an ecological point of view, we identified widespread family poverty, poor availability and uptake of childcare resources, inadequate community and institutional childcare systems, and inadequate framework for social protection for vulnerable children as among the risk and vulnerability factors for CAMH in the region. Others are poor workplace policy/practice that does not support work-family life balance, poor legislative framework for child protection, and some harmful traditional practices. We conclude that an ecological approach shows that child mental-health risks are diverse and cut across different layers of the care environment. The approach also provides a broad and holistic template from which appropriate CAMH policy direction in sub-Saharan Africa can be understood. PMID:24834431

  5. Where lies the risk? An ecological approach to understanding child mental health risk and vulnerabilities in sub-saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atilola, Olayinka

    2014-01-01

    Efforts at improving child-health and development initiatives in sub-Saharan Africa had focused on the physical health of children due to the neglect of child and adolescent mental health (CAMH) policy initiatives. A thorough and broad-based understanding of the prevalent child mental-health risk and vulnerability factors is needed to successfully articulate CAMH policies. In this discourse, we present a narrative on the child mental-health risk and vulnerability factors in sub-Saharan Africa. Through an ecological point of view, we identified widespread family poverty, poor availability and uptake of childcare resources, inadequate community and institutional childcare systems, and inadequate framework for social protection for vulnerable children as among the risk and vulnerability factors for CAMH in the region. Others are poor workplace policy/practice that does not support work-family life balance, poor legislative framework for child protection, and some harmful traditional practices. We conclude that an ecological approach shows that child mental-health risks are diverse and cut across different layers of the care environment. The approach also provides a broad and holistic template from which appropriate CAMH policy direction in sub-Saharan Africa can be understood.

  6. Where Lies the Risk? An Ecological Approach to Understanding Child Mental Health Risk and Vulnerabilities in Sub-Saharan Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olayinka Atilola

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Efforts at improving child-health and development initiatives in sub-Saharan Africa had focused on the physical health of children due to the neglect of child and adolescent mental health (CAMH policy initiatives. A thorough and broad-based understanding of the prevalent child mental-health risk and vulnerability factors is needed to successfully articulate CAMH policies. In this discourse, we present a narrative on the child mental-health risk and vulnerability factors in sub-Saharan Africa. Through an ecological point of view, we identified widespread family poverty, poor availability and uptake of childcare resources, inadequate community and institutional childcare systems, and inadequate framework for social protection for vulnerable children as among the risk and vulnerability factors for CAMH in the region. Others are poor workplace policy/practice that does not support work-family life balance, poor legislative framework for child protection, and some harmful traditional practices. We conclude that an ecological approach shows that child mental-health risks are diverse and cut across different layers of the care environment. The approach also provides a broad and holistic template from which appropriate CAMH policy direction in sub-Saharan Africa can be understood.

  7. Enrichment of inflammatory bowel disease and colorectal cancer risk variants in colon expression quantitative trait loci.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hulur, Imge; Gamazon, Eric R; Skol, Andrew D; Xicola, Rosa M; Llor, Xavier; Onel, Kenan; Ellis, Nathan A; Kupfer, Sonia S

    2015-02-27

    Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with diseases of the colon including inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD) and colorectal cancer (CRC). However, the functional role of many of these SNPs is largely unknown and tissue-specific resources are lacking. Expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) mapping identifies target genes of disease-associated SNPs. This study provides a comprehensive eQTL map of distal colonic samples obtained from 40 healthy African Americans and demonstrates their relevance for GWAS of colonic diseases. 8.4 million imputed SNPs were tested for their associations with 16,252 expression probes representing 12,363 unique genes. 1,941 significant cis-eQTL, corresponding to 122 independent signals, were identified at a false discovery rate (FDR) of 0.01. Overall, among colon cis-eQTL, there was significant enrichment for GWAS variants for IBD (Crohn's disease [CD] and ulcerative colitis [UC]) and CRC as well as type 2 diabetes and body mass index. ERAP2, ADCY3, INPP5E, UBA7, SFMBT1, NXPE1 and REXO2 were identified as target genes for IBD-associated variants. The CRC-associated eQTL rs3802842 was associated with the expression of C11orf93 (COLCA2). Enrichment of colon eQTL near transcription start sites and for active histone marks was demonstrated, and eQTL with high population differentiation were identified. Through the comprehensive study of eQTL in the human colon, this study identified novel target genes for IBD- and CRC-associated genetic variants. Moreover, bioinformatic characterization of colon eQTL provides a tissue-specific tool to improve understanding of biological differences in diseases between different ethnic groups.

  8. Linking quantitative microbial risk assessment and epidemiological data: informing safe drinking water trials in developing countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enger, Kyle S; Nelson, Kara L; Clasen, Thomas; Rose, Joan B; Eisenberg, Joseph N S

    2012-05-01

    Intervention trials are used extensively to assess household water treatment (HWT) device efficacy against diarrheal disease in developing countries. Using these data for policy, however, requires addressing issues of generalizability (relevance of one trial in other contexts) and systematic bias associated with design and conduct of a study. To illustrate how quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) can address water safety and health issues, we analyzed a published randomized controlled trial (RCT) of the LifeStraw Family Filter in the Congo. The model accounted for bias due to (1) incomplete compliance with filtration, (2) unexpected antimicrobial activity by the placebo device, and (3) incomplete recall of diarrheal disease. Effectiveness was measured using the longitudinal prevalence ratio (LPR) of reported diarrhea. The Congo RCT observed an LPR of 0.84 (95% CI: 0.61, 1.14). Our model predicted LPRs, assuming a perfect placebo, ranging from 0.50 (2.5-97.5 percentile: 0.33, 0.77) to 0.86 (2.5-97.5 percentile: 0.68, 1.09) for high (but not perfect) and low (but not zero) compliance, respectively. The calibration step provided estimates of the concentrations of three pathogen types (modeled as diarrheagenic E. coli, Giardia, and rotavirus) in drinking water, consistent with the longitudinal prevalence of reported diarrhea measured in the trial, and constrained by epidemiological data from the trial. Use of a QMRA model demonstrated the importance of compliance in HWT efficacy, the need for pathogen data from source waters, the effect of quantifying biases associated with epidemiological data, and the usefulness of generalizing the effectiveness of HWT trials to other contexts. © 2012 American Chemical Society

  9. Quantitative Structure Activity Relationship and Risk Analysis of Some Pesticides in the Goat milk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Faqir Muhammad

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The detection and quantification of different pesticides in the goat milk samples collected from different localities of Faisalabad, Pakistan was performed by HPLC using solid phase microextraction. The analysis showed that about 50% milk samples were contaminated with pesticides. The mean+/-SEM levels (ppm of cyhalothrin, endosulfan, chlorpyrifos and cypermethrin were 0.34+/-0.007, 0.063+/-0.002, 0.034+/-0.002 and 0.092+/-0.002, respectively; whereas, methyl parathion was not detected in any of the analyzed samples. Quantitative structure activity relationship (QSAR models were suggested to predict the residues of unknown pesticides in the goat milk using their known physicochemical characteristics including molecular weight (MW, melting point (MP, and log octanol to water partition coefficient (Ko/w in relation to the characteristics such as pH, % fat, specific gravity and refractive index of goat milk. The analysis revealed good correlation coefficient (R2 = 0.985 for goat QSAR model. The coefficients for Ko/w and refractive index for the studied pesticides were higher in goat milk. This suggests that these are better determinants for pesticide residue prediction in the milk of these animals. Based upon the determined pesticide residues and their provisional tolerable daily intakes, risk analysis was also conducted which showed that daily intake levels of pesticide residues including cyhalothrin, chlorpyrifos and cypermethrin in present study are 2.68, 5.19 and 2.71 times higher, respectively in the goat milk. This intake of pesticide contaminated milk might pose health hazards to humans in this locality.

  10. Toward a Quantitative Understanding of the Electric Field in Thermal Metal Oxidation and a Self-Consistent Wagner Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Tian-Le; Wen, You-Hai

    2014-07-03

    The electric field in the growing oxide film is important to the kinetics and mechanism of metal oxidation. However, understanding of the essential characteristics of the electric field during oxidation remains insufficient. A special-case analytical model is presented that provides a unified understanding for the electric field from the viewpoints of kinetics and thermodynamics. More general cases are studied by computer simulations that show similar characteristics in the electric field. In particular, simulations indicate that in many situations, the electrostatic potential drop across the bulk oxide is limited to ∼kBT/e, which means that the total electrostatic potential drop across the oxide film, if on the order of 1 V by rough estimation, should have contributions mostly from the electrified interfaces. Finally, regarding the Gibbs-Duhem relation, the commonly used isobaric assumption for the diffusing species is refuted. The results contained herein also provide a self-consistent understanding of Wagner's oxidation theory.

  11. Acute colonic diverticulitis: modern understanding of pathomechanisms, risk factors, disease burden and severity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Søreide, Kjetil; Boermeester, Marja A; Humes, David J; Velmahos, George C

    2016-12-01

    Conservative, non-antibiotic and non-surgical management of acute diverticulitis is currently being investigated. To better inform clinical decisions, better understanding of disease mechanisms, disease burden and severity is needed. Literature search of risk factors, pathophysiology, epidemiology and disease burden/severity reported over the last decade. Acute diverticulitis is a common disease and has a high disease burden. Incidence of hospital admissions is reported around 71 per 100,000 population, with reported increase in several subpopulations over the last decades. The incidence is likely to increase further with the aging populations. Risk factors for left-sided acute diverticulitis include dietary, anthropometric and lifestyle factors. Disease mechanisms are still poorly understood, but a distinction between inflammation and infection is emerging. The integrative and complex role of the gut microbiota has become an interesting factor for both understanding the disease as well as a potential target for intervention using probiotics. Mild, self-limiting events are increasingly reported from studies of successful non-antibiotic management in a considerable number of cases. Risk markers of progression to or presence of severe, complicated disease are needed for better disease stratification. Current risk stratification by clinical, imaging or endoscopic means is imperfect and needs validation. Long-term results from minimal-invasive and comparative surgical trials may better help inform clinicians and patients. Over- and under-treatment as well as over- and under-diagnosis of severity is likely to continue in clinical practice due to lack of reliable, robust and universal severity and classification systems. Better understanding of pathophysiology is needed.

  12. A qualitative phenomenological analysis of the subjective experience and understanding of the at risk mental state.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brew, Benjamin; Shannon, Ciaran; Storey, Lesley; Boyd, Adrian; Mulholland, Ciaran

    2017-12-01

    Over recent years there has been a growing interest in identifying the early stages of psychosis. The At Risk Mental State (ARMS) is characteristic of the prodromal stages of psychosis and its identification gives rise to a number of clinical and research opportunities including early intervention and prevention of psychosis. This study employs interpretative phenomenological analysis to gain insights into the subjective experience and individuals understanding of the development of their ARMS. Five participants took part and provided information on the experience of symptoms, life prior to onset of their ARMS and their understanding of symptoms and their development through a semi structured interview. From the analysis of transcripts eight themes emerged which were common across participants accounts. Three themes of experience (disturbed world/disturbed self, disconnection with the world, thunderstruck) and five themes of understanding (absence of understanding, use of others, identity, forming links, fragmented understanding) were identified. Themes are explored in detail and discussed in relation to existing literature and theory. Clinical implications, directions for future research, and limitations are discussed within.

  13. The Impact of Three-Dimensional Computational Modeling on Student Understanding of Astronomical Concepts: A Quantitative Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, John A.; Barnett, Michael; Makinster, James G.; Keating, Thomas

    2004-01-01

    The increased availability of computational modeling software has created opportunities for students to engage in scientific inquiry through constructing computer-based models of scientific phenomena. However, despite the growing trend of integrating technology into science curricula, educators need to understand what aspects of these technologies…

  14. Teaching Games for Understanding in American High-School Soccer: A Quantitative Data Analysis Using the Game Performance Assessment Instrument

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harvey, Stephen; Cushion, Christopher J.; Wegis, Heidi M.; Massa-Gonzalez, Ada N.

    2010-01-01

    Background: Previous research examining the effectiveness of the Teaching Games for Understanding (TGfU) approach has been equivocal. This has been hampered by a dependence on a comparative (i.e., "which method is best?") theoretical framework. An alternative "practice-referenced" framework has the potential to examine the effectiveness of TGfU…

  15. Understanding HIV Risk Behavior among Tuberculosis Patients with Alcohol Use Disorders in Tomsk, Russian Federation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Ann C; Nelson, A Katrina; Livchits, Viktoria; Greenfield, Shelly F; Yanova, Galina; Yanov, Sergei; Connery, Hilary S; Atwood, Sidney; Lastimoso, Charmaine S; Shin, Sonya S

    2016-01-01

    Russian Federation's (RF) HIV epidemic is the fastest growing of any country. This study explores factors associated with high HIV risk behavior in tuberculosis (TB) patients with alcohol use disorders in Tomsk, RF. This analysis was nested within the Integrated Management of Physician-delivered Alcohol Care for TB Patients (IMPACT, trial number NCT00675961) randomized controlled study of integrating alcohol treatment into TB treatment in Tomsk. Demographics, HIV risk behavior (defined as participant report of high-risk intravenous drug use and/or multiple sexual partners with inconsistent condom use in the last six months), clinical data, alcohol use, depression and psychosocial factors were collected from 196 participants (161 male and 35 female) at baseline. Forty-six participants (23.5%) endorsed HIV risk behavior at baseline. Incarceration history(Odds Ratio (OR)3.93, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.95, 7.95), age under 41 (OR:2.97, CI:1.46, 6.04), drug addiction(OR: 3.60 CI:1.10, 11.77), history of a sexually transmitted disease(STD)(OR 2.00 CI:1.02, 3.90), low social capital (OR:2.81 CI:0.99, 8.03) and heavier alcohol use (OR:2.56 CI: 1.02, 6.46) were significantly more likely to be associated with HIV risk behavior at baseline. In adjusted analysis, age under 41(OR: 4.93, CI: 2.10, 11.58), incarceration history(OR: 3.56 CI:1.55, 8.17) and STD history (OR: 3.48, CI: 1.5, 8.10) continued to be significantly associated with HIV risk behavior. Understanding HIV transmission dynamics in Russia remains an urgent priority to inform strategies to address the epidemic. Larger studies addressing sex differences in risks and barriers to protective behavior are needed.

  16. Understanding HIV Risk Behavior among Tuberculosis Patients with Alcohol Use Disorders in Tomsk, Russian Federation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ann C Miller

    Full Text Available Russian Federation's (RF HIV epidemic is the fastest growing of any country. This study explores factors associated with high HIV risk behavior in tuberculosis (TB patients with alcohol use disorders in Tomsk, RF. This analysis was nested within the Integrated Management of Physician-delivered Alcohol Care for TB Patients (IMPACT, trial number NCT00675961 randomized controlled study of integrating alcohol treatment into TB treatment in Tomsk. Demographics, HIV risk behavior (defined as participant report of high-risk intravenous drug use and/or multiple sexual partners with inconsistent condom use in the last six months, clinical data, alcohol use, depression and psychosocial factors were collected from 196 participants (161 male and 35 female at baseline. Forty-six participants (23.5% endorsed HIV risk behavior at baseline. Incarceration history(Odds Ratio (OR3.93, 95% confidence interval (CI 1.95, 7.95, age under 41 (OR:2.97, CI:1.46, 6.04, drug addiction(OR: 3.60 CI:1.10, 11.77, history of a sexually transmitted disease(STD(OR 2.00 CI:1.02, 3.90, low social capital (OR:2.81 CI:0.99, 8.03 and heavier alcohol use (OR:2.56 CI: 1.02, 6.46 were significantly more likely to be associated with HIV risk behavior at baseline. In adjusted analysis, age under 41(OR: 4.93, CI: 2.10, 11.58, incarceration history(OR: 3.56 CI:1.55, 8.17 and STD history (OR: 3.48, CI: 1.5, 8.10 continued to be significantly associated with HIV risk behavior. Understanding HIV transmission dynamics in Russia remains an urgent priority to inform strategies to address the epidemic. Larger studies addressing sex differences in risks and barriers to protective behavior are needed.

  17. Study on quantitative risk assessment model of the third party damage for natural gas pipelines based on fuzzy comprehensive assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qiu, Zeyang; Liang, Wei; Lin, Yang; Zhang, Meng; Wang, Xue

    2017-01-01

    As an important part of national energy supply system, transmission pipelines for natural gas are possible to cause serious environmental pollution, life and property loss in case of accident. The third party damage is one of the most significant causes for natural gas pipeline system accidents, and it is very important to establish an effective quantitative risk assessment model of the third party damage for reducing the number of gas pipelines operation accidents. Against the third party damage accident has the characteristics such as diversity, complexity and uncertainty, this paper establishes a quantitative risk assessment model of the third party damage based on Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation (FCE). Firstly, risk sources of third party damage should be identified exactly, and the weight of factors could be determined via improved AHP, finally the importance of each factor is calculated by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model. The results show that the quantitative risk assessment model is suitable for the third party damage of natural gas pipelines and improvement measures could be put forward to avoid accidents based on the importance of each factor. (paper)

  18. Enrichment followed by quantitative PCR both for rapid detection and as a tool for quantitative risk assessment of food-borne thermotolerant campylobacters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Josefsen, Mathilde Hartmann; Jacobsen, N. R.; Hoorfar, Jeffrey

    2004-01-01

    As part of a large international project for standardization of PCR (Food-PCR; www.pcr.dk), a multiplex, multiplatform, ready-to-go enrichment followed by a real-time PCR method, including an internal amplification control, was developed for detection of food-borne thermotolerant campylobacters...... Organization (ISO)-based culture method by testing low, medium, and high levels of 12 spiked and 66 unspiked, presumably naturally contaminated, chicken rinse samples. In the RotorGene, a positive PCR response was detected in 40 samples of the 66. This was in complete agreement with the enriched ISO culture...... naturally contaminated chicken samples, which indicates PCR's additional potential as a tool for quantitative risk assessment. Signal from the internal amplification control was detected in all culture-negative samples (VIC Ct: 23.1 to 28.1). The method will be taken further and validated...

  19. Multiple-Strain Approach and Probabilistic Modeling of Consumer Habits in Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment: A Quantitative Assessment of Exposure to Staphylococcal Enterotoxin A in Raw Milk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crotta, Matteo; Rizzi, Rita; Varisco, Giorgio; Daminelli, Paolo; Cunico, Elena Cosciani; Luini, Mario; Graber, Hans Ulrich; Paterlini, Franco; Guitian, Javier

    2016-03-01

    Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) models are extensively applied to inform management of a broad range of food safety risks. Inevitably, QMRA modeling involves an element of simplification of the biological process of interest. Two features that are frequently simplified or disregarded are the pathogenicity of multiple strains of a single pathogen and consumer behavior at the household level. In this study, we developed a QMRA model with a multiple-strain approach and a consumer phase module (CPM) based on uncertainty distributions fitted from field data. We modeled exposure to staphylococcal enterotoxin A in raw milk in Lombardy; a specific enterotoxin production module was thus included. The model is adaptable and could be used to assess the risk related to other pathogens in raw milk as well as other staphylococcal enterotoxins. The multiplestrain approach, implemented as a multinomial process, allowed the inclusion of variability and uncertainty with regard to pathogenicity at the bacterial level. Data from 301 questionnaires submitted to raw milk consumers were used to obtain uncertainty distributions for the CPM. The distributions were modeled to be easily updatable with further data or evidence. The sources of uncertainty due to the multiple-strain approach and the CPM were identified, and their impact on the output was assessed by comparing specific scenarios to the baseline. When the distributions reflecting the uncertainty in consumer behavior were fixed to the 95th percentile, the risk of exposure increased up to 160 times. This reflects the importance of taking into consideration the diversity of consumers' habits at the household level and the impact that the lack of knowledge about variables in the CPM can have on the final QMRA estimates. The multiple-strain approach lends itself to use in other food matrices besides raw milk and allows the model to better capture the complexity of the real world and to be capable of geographical

  20. Quantitative Fermi level tuning in amorphous organic semiconductor by molecular doping: Toward full understanding of the doping mechanism

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Jin-Peng, E-mail: yangjp@yzu.edu.cn, E-mail: uenon@faculty.chiba-u.jp; Wang, Wen-Qing; Cheng, Li-Wen; Zeng, Xiang-Hua [College of Physical Science and Technology, Yangzhou University, Jiangsu 225009 (China); Bussolotti, Fabio [Institute for Molecular Science, Okazaki 444-8585 (Japan); Li, Yan-Qing; Tang, Jian-Xin [Institute of Functional Nano and Soft Materials (FUNSOM), Soochow University, Suzhou 215123 (China); Kera, Satoshi [Institute for Molecular Science, Okazaki 444-8585 (Japan); Graduate School of Advanced Integration Science, Chiba University, Chiba 263–8522 (Japan); Ueno, Nobuo, E-mail: yangjp@yzu.edu.cn, E-mail: uenon@faculty.chiba-u.jp [Graduate School of Advanced Integration Science, Chiba University, Chiba 263–8522 (Japan)

    2016-08-29

    The doping mechanism in organic-semiconductor films has been quantitatively studied via ultrahigh-sensitivity ultraviolet photoelectron spectroscopy of N,N-bis(1-naphthyl)-N,N-diphenyl-1,1-biphenyl-4,4-diamine (α-NPD) films doped with hexaazatriphenylene-hexacarbonitrile [HAT(CN){sub 6}]. We observed that HOMO of α-NPD shifts to the Fermi level (E{sub F}) in two different rates with the doping concentration of HAT(CN){sub 6}, but HOMO distributions of both pristine and doped amorphous α-NPD films are excellently approximated with a same Gaussian distribution without exponential tail states over ∼5 × 10{sup 18} cm{sup −3} eV{sup −1}. From the theoretical simulation of the HAT(CN){sub 6}-concentration dependence of the HOMO in doped films, we show that the passivation of Gaussian-distributed hole traps, which peak at 1.1 eV above the HOMO onset, occurs at ultralow doping [HAT(CN){sub 6} molecular ratio (MR) < 0.01], leading to a strong HOMO shift of ∼0.40 eV towards E{sub F}, and MR dependence of HOMO changes abruptly at MR ∼ 0.01 to a weaker dependence for MR > 0.01 due to future of the dopant acceptor level.

  1. Precarity in late life: Understanding new forms of risk and insecurity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grenier, Amanda; Phillipson, Chris; Laliberte Rudman, Debbie; Hatzifilalithis, Stephanie; Kobayashi, Karen; Marier, Patrik

    2017-12-01

    Population aging and longevity in the context of declining social commitments, raises concerns about disadvantage and widening inequality in late life. This paper explores the concept of precarity as a means to understand new and sustained forms of risk and insecurity that affect late life. The article begins with a review of the definition and uses of precarity in a range of scholarly fields including social gerontology. It then draws on illustrations from three locations of experience including older women, aging with a disability, and the foreign-born, to outline how precarity renders visible the disadvantages carried into late life, and new insecurities that emerge at the moment of needing care in the context of austerity. The argument being put forward is that precarity can be used to illustrate how risks and insecurities, experienced over time, in longevity, and the context of austerity, can deepen disadvantage. This lens thus holds the potential to challenge individual interpretations of risk, and situate experiences of disadvantage in the economic and political context. We conclude that contemporary conditions of austerity and longevity intersect to produce and sustain risk and disadvantage into late life. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Gait and Cognition: A Complementary Approach to Understanding Brain Function and the Risk of Falling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montero-Odasso, Manuel; Verghese, Joe; Beauchet, Olivier; Hausdorff, Jeffrey M.

    2012-01-01

    Until recently, clinicians and researchers have performed gait assessments and cognitive assessments separately when evaluating older adults. Increasing evidence from clinical practice, epidemiological studies, and clinical trials shows that gait and cognition are inter-related in older adults. Quantifiable alterations in gait among older adults are associated with falls, dementia, and disability. At the same time, emerging evidence indicates that early disturbances in cognitive processes such as attention, executive function, and working memory are associated with slower gait and gait instability during single and dual-task testing, and that these cognitive disturbances assist in the prediction of future mobility loss, falls, and progression to dementia. This paper reviews the importance of the gait-cognition inter-relationship in aging and presents evidence that gait assessments can provide a window into the understanding of cognitive function and dysfunctions, and fall risk in older people in clinical practice. To this end, the benefits of dual-task gait assessments (e.g., walking while performing an attention-demanding task) as a marker of fall risk are summarized. Further, we also present a potential complementary approach for reducing the risk of falls by improving certain aspects of cognition through both non-pharmacological and pharmacological treatments. Untangling the relationship between early gait disturbances and early cognitive changes may be helpful for identifying older adults at higher risk of experiencing mobility decline, falls and the progression to dementia. PMID:23110433

  3. Understanding comorbidity among internalizing problems: Integrating latent structural models of psychopathology and risk mechanisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hankin, Benjamin L.; Snyder, Hannah R.; Gulley, Lauren D.; Schweizer, Tina H.; Bijttebier, Patricia; Nelis, Sabine; Toh, Gim; Vasey, Michael W.

    2016-01-01

    It is well known that comorbidity is the rule, not the exception, for categorically defined psychiatric disorders, and this is also the case for internalizing disorders of depression and anxiety. This theoretical review paper addresses the ubiquity of comorbidity among internalizing disorders. Our central thesis is that progress in understanding this co-occurrence can be made by employing latent dimensional structural models that organize both psychopathology as well as vulnerabilities and risk mechanisms and by connecting the multiple levels of risk and psychopathology outcomes together. Different vulnerabilities and risk mechanisms are hypothesized to predict different levels of the structural model of psychopathology. We review the present state of knowledge based on concurrent and developmental sequential comorbidity patterns among common discrete psychiatric disorders in youth, and then we advocate for the use of more recent bifactor dimensional models of psychopathology (e.g., p factor, Caspi et al., 2014) that can help to explain the co-occurrence among internalizing symptoms. In support of this relatively novel conceptual perspective, we review six exemplar vulnerabilities and risk mechanisms, including executive function, information processing biases, cognitive vulnerabilities, positive and negative affectivity aspects of temperament, and autonomic dysregulation, along with the developmental occurrence of stressors in different domains, to show how these vulnerabilities can predict the general latent psychopathology factor, a unique latent internalizing dimension, as well as specific symptom syndrome manifestations. PMID:27739389

  4. Gait and cognition: a complementary approach to understanding brain function and the risk of falling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montero-Odasso, Manuel; Verghese, Joe; Beauchet, Olivier; Hausdorff, Jeffrey M

    2012-11-01

    Until recently, clinicians and researchers have performed gait assessments and cognitive assessments separately when evaluating older adults, but increasing evidence from clinical practice, epidemiological studies, and clinical trials shows that gait and cognition are interrelated in older adults. Quantifiable alterations in gait in older adults are associated with falls, dementia, and disability. At the same time, emerging evidence indicates that early disturbances in cognitive processes such as attention, executive function, and working memory are associated with slower gait and gait instability during single- and dual-task testing and that these cognitive disturbances assist in the prediction of future mobility loss, falls, and progression to dementia. This article reviews the importance of the interrelationship between gait and cognition in aging and presents evidence that gait assessments can provide a window into the understanding of cognitive function and dysfunction and fall risk in older people in clinical practice. To this end, the benefits of dual-task gait assessments (e.g., walking while performing an attention-demanding task) as a marker of fall risk are summarized. A potential complementary approach for reducing the risk of falls by improving certain aspects of cognition through nonpharmacological and pharmacological treatments is also presented. Untangling the relationship between early gait disturbances and early cognitive changes may be helpful in identifying older adults at risk of experiencing mobility decline, falls, and progression to dementia. © 2012, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2012, The American Geriatrics Society.

  5. Consent for blood transfusion: do patients understand the risks and benefits?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheung, D; Lieberman, L; Lin, Y; Callum, J

    2014-10-01

    Blood transfusion is a frequent medical intervention in hospitals. The benefits of, risks of and alternatives to blood transfusions are not consistently understood by patients. The objective of this study was to assess gaps in knowledge and comfort with the current process of consenting patients for blood transfusions. A standardised video regarding the risk and benefits of blood transfusions was developed and feedback regarding this tool was assessed. After informed consent had been obtained, 25 patients receiving their first transfusion at a single academic centre were asked to complete a survey, watch a standardised educational video and complete a follow-up survey. The patient survey revealed that the information recollected from informed consent discussions was variable and incomplete. After the informed consent discussion, the majority of patients were comfortable with having a blood transfusion, although one-third did express concerns or worry about having a blood transfusion. After viewing the video, patients felt that the video improved their understanding of the risks (7·3 of 10), benefits (6·9 of 10) and alternatives (7·1 of 10) to transfusion, but it did not change their comfort with blood transfusion consent. Patients experienced a variable informed consent process prior to blood transfusion. Although the video improved their understanding of risks, it did not improve patient comfort towards giving consent for transfusion as the level of comfort was already high. The video is available online (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RxaPnLkgh-0) as an optional resource for patients (and physicians) who wish to receive standardised and accurate information about blood transfusions. © 2014 British Blood Transfusion Society.

  6. Quantitative risk assessment from farm to fork and beyond: a global Bayesian approach concerning food-borne diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albert, Isabelle; Grenier, Emmanuel; Denis, Jean-Baptiste; Rousseau, Judith

    2008-04-01

    A novel approach to the quantitative assessment of food-borne risks is proposed. The basic idea is to use Bayesian techniques in two distinct steps: first by constructing a stochastic core model via a Bayesian network based on expert knowledge, and second, using the data available to improve this knowledge. Unlike the Monte Carlo simulation approach as commonly used in quantitative assessment of food-borne risks where data sets are used independently in each module, our consistent procedure incorporates information conveyed by data throughout the chain. It allows "back-calculation" in the food chain model, together with the use of data obtained "downstream" in the food chain. Moreover, the expert knowledge is introduced more simply and consistently than with classical statistical methods. Other advantages of this approach include the clear framework of an iterative learning process, considerable flexibility enabling the use of heterogeneous data, and a justified method to explore the effects of variability and uncertainty. As an illustration, we present an estimation of the probability of contracting a campylobacteriosis as a result of broiler contamination, from the standpoint of quantitative risk assessment. Although the model thus constructed is oversimplified, it clarifies the principles and properties of the method proposed, which demonstrates its ability to deal with quite complex situations and provides a useful basis for further discussions with different experts in the food chain.

  7. Forensic comparison and matching of fingerprints: using quantitative image measures for estimating error rates through understanding and predicting difficulty.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philip J Kellman

    Full Text Available Latent fingerprint examination is a complex task that, despite advances in image processing, still fundamentally depends on the visual judgments of highly trained human examiners. Fingerprints collected from crime scenes typically contain less information than fingerprints collected under controlled conditions. Specifically, they are often noisy and distorted and may contain only a portion of the total fingerprint area. Expertise in fingerprint comparison, like other forms of perceptual expertise, such as face recognition or aircraft identification, depends on perceptual learning processes that lead to the discovery of features and relations that matter in comparing prints. Relatively little is known about the perceptual processes involved in making comparisons, and even less is known about what characteristics of fingerprint pairs make particular comparisons easy or difficult. We measured expert examiner performance and judgments of difficulty and confidence on a new fingerprint database. We developed a number of quantitative measures of image characteristics and used multiple regression techniques to discover objective predictors of error as well as perceived difficulty and confidence. A number of useful predictors emerged, and these included variables related to image quality metrics, such as intensity and contrast information, as well as measures of information quantity, such as the total fingerprint area. Also included were configural features that fingerprint experts have noted, such as the presence and clarity of global features and fingerprint ridges. Within the constraints of the overall low error rates of experts, a regression model incorporating the derived predictors demonstrated reasonable success in predicting objective difficulty for print pairs, as shown both in goodness of fit measures to the original data set and in a cross validation test. The results indicate the plausibility of using objective image metrics to predict expert

  8. Building shared understandings in introductory physics tutorials through risk, repair, conflict & comedy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conlin, Luke D.

    Collaborative inquiry learning environments, such as The Tutorials in Physics Sensemaking, are designed to provide students with opportunities to partake in the authentic disciplinary practices of argumentation and sensemaking. Through these practices, groups of students in tutorial can build shared conceptual understandings of the mechanisms behind physical phenomena. In order to do so, they must also build a shared epistemological understanding of what they are doing together, such that their activity includes collaboratively making sense of mechanisms. Previous work (Conlin, Gupta, Scherr, & Hammer, 2007; Scherr & Hammer, 2009) has demonstrated that tutorial students do not settle upon only one way of understanding their activity together, but instead build multiple shared ways of understanding, or framing (Scherr & Hammer, 2009; Tannen, 1993a), their activity. I build upon this work by substantiating a preliminary finding that one of these shared ways of framing corresponds with increased evidence of the students' collaboratively making sense of physical mechanisms. What previous research has not yet addressed is how the students come to understand their activity as including collaborative sensemaking discussions in the first place, and how that understanding develops over the course of the semester. In this dissertation, I address both of these questions through an in-depth video analysis of three groups' discussions throughout the semester. To build shared understandings through scientific argumentation and collaborative sensemaking, the students need to continually make repairs of each other's understanding, but this comes with the risk of affective damage that can shut down further sensemaking discussions. By analyzing the discourse of the three groups' discussions throughout the semester, I show how each group is able to manage this essential tension as they each build and maintain a safe space to sensemake together. I find that the three groups differ in

  9. Quantitative evaluation of surveillance test intervals including test-caused risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, I.S.; Samanta, P.K.; Martorell, S.; Vesely, W.E.

    1992-02-01

    Concerns have been raised regarding the adverse safety impact of surveillance testing and generally overburdensome surveillance requirements. To evaluate these concerns, the risk-effectiveness with the beneficial risk impact. This report defines the adverse effects of surveillance testing from a risk perspective, and then presents the methodology by which the adverse risk impact can be quantified, focusing on two important kinds of adverse risk impact of surveillance testing: risk impact of test-caused trips and risk impact of test-caused equipment wear. Using the methodology presented, these risk impacts are evaluated for a selected set of surveillance tests for demonstration examples. The results of the risk-effectiveness evaluation are provided along with the insights from the sensitivity analyses

  10. Brief report: Validation of a quantitative HIV risk prediction tool using a national HIV testing cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haukoos, Jason S; Hopkins, Emily; Bucossi, Meggan M; Lyons, Michael S; Rothman, Richard E; White, Douglas A E; Al-Tayyib, Alia A; Bradley-Springer, Lucy; Campbell, Jonathan D; Sabel, Allison L; Thrun, Mark W

    2015-04-15

    Routine screening is recommended for HIV detection. HIV risk estimation remains important. Our goal was to validate the Denver HIV Risk Score using a national cohort from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Patients of 13 years and older were included, 4,830,941 HIV tests were performed, and 0.6% newly diagnosed infections were identified. Of all visits, 9% were very low risk (HIV prevalence = 0.20%), 27% low risk (HIV prevalence = 0.17%), 41% moderate risk (HIV prevalence = 0.39%), 17% high risk (HIV prevalence = 1.19%), and 6% very high risk (HIV prevalence = 3.57%). The Denver HIV Risk Score accurately categorized patients into different HIV risk groups.

  11. The Importance of HRA in Human Space Flight: Understanding the Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamlin, Teri

    2010-01-01

    Human performance is critical to crew safety during space missions. Humans interact with hardware and software during ground processing, normal flight, and in response to events. Human interactions with hardware and software can cause Loss of Crew and/or Vehicle (LOCV) through improper actions, or may prevent LOCV through recovery and control actions. Humans have the ability to deal with complex situations and system interactions beyond the capability of machines. Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) is a method used to qualitatively and quantitatively assess the occurrence of human failures that affect availability and reliability of complex systems. Modeling human actions with their corresponding failure probabilities in a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) provides a more complete picture of system risks and risk contributions. A high-quality HRA can provide valuable information on potential areas for improvement, including training, procedures, human interfaces design, and the need for automation. Modeling human error has always been a challenge in part because performance data is not always readily available. For spaceflight, the challenge is amplified not only because of the small number of participants and limited amount of performance data available, but also due to the lack of definition of the unique factors influencing human performance in space. These factors, called performance shaping factors in HRA terminology, are used in HRA techniques to modify basic human error probabilities in order to capture the context of an analyzed task. Many of the human error modeling techniques were developed within the context of nuclear power plants and therefore the methodologies do not address spaceflight factors such as the effects of microgravity and longer duration missions. This presentation will describe the types of human error risks which have shown up as risk drivers in the Shuttle PRA which may be applicable to commercial space flight. As with other large PRAs

  12. Process Review for Development of Quantitative Risk Analyses for Transboundary Animal Disease to Pathogen-Free Territories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan Miller

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Outbreaks of transboundary animal diseases (TADs have the potential to cause significant detriment to animal, human, and environmental health; severe economic implications; and national security. Challenges concerning data sharing, model development, decision support, and disease emergence science have recently been promoted. These challenges and recommendations have been recognized and advocated in the disciplines intersecting with outbreak prediction and forecast modeling regarding infectious diseases. To advance the effective application of computation and risk communication, analytical products ought to follow a collaboratively agreed common plan for implementation. Research articles should seek to inform and assist prioritization of national and international strategies in developing established criteria to identify and follow best practice standards to assess risk model attributes and performance. A well-defined framework to help eliminate gaps in policy, process, and planning knowledge areas would help alleviate the intense need for the formation of a comprehensive strategy for countering TAD outbreak risks. A quantitative assessment that accurately captures the risk of introduction of a TAD through various pathways can be a powerful tool in guiding where government, academic, and industry resources ought to be allocated, whether implementation of additional risk management solutions is merited, and where research efforts should be directed to minimize risk. This review outlines a part of a process for the development of quantitative risk analysis to collect, analyze, and communicate this knowledge. A more comprehensive and unabridged manual was also developed. The framework used in supporting the application of aligning computational tools for readiness continues our approach to apply a preparedness mindset to challenges concerning threats to global biosecurity, secure food systems, and risk-mitigated agricultural economies.

  13. Risks to Birds Traded for African Traditional Medicine: A Quantitative Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Vivienne L.; Cunningham, Anthony B.; Kemp, Alan C.; Bruyns, Robin K.

    2014-01-01

    Few regional or continent-wide assessments of bird use for traditional medicine have been attempted anywhere in the world. Africa has the highest known diversity of bird species used for this purpose. This study assesses the vulnerability of 354 bird species used for traditional medicine in 25 African countries, from 205 genera, 70 families, and 25 orders. The orders most represented were Passeriformes (107 species), Falconiformes (45 species), and Coraciiformes (24 species), and the families Accipitridae (37 species), Ardeidae (15 species), and Bucerotidae (12 species). The Barn owl (Tyto alba) was the most widely sold species (seven countries). The similarity of avifaunal orders traded is high (analogous to “morphospecies”, and using Sørensen's index), which suggests opportunities for a common understanding of cultural factors driving demand. The highest similarity was between bird orders sold in markets of Benin vs. Burkina Faso (90%), but even bird orders sold in two geographically separated countries (Benin vs. South Africa and Nigeria vs. South Africa) were 87% and 81% similar, respectively. Rabinowitz's “7 forms of rarity” model, used to group species according to commonness or rarity, indicated that 24% of traded bird species are very common, locally abundant in several habitats, and occur over a large geographical area, but 10% are rare, occur in low numbers in specific habitats, and over a small geographical area. The order with the highest proportion of rare species was the Musophagiformes. An analysis of species mass (as a proxy for size) indicated that large and/or conspicuous species tend to be targeted by harvesters for the traditional medicine trade. Furthermore, based on cluster analyses for species groups of similar risk, vultures, hornbills, and other large avifauna, such as bustards, are most threatened by selective harvesting and should be prioritised for conservation action. PMID:25162700

  14. Risks to birds traded for African traditional medicine: a quantitative assessment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vivienne L Williams

    Full Text Available Few regional or continent-wide assessments of bird use for traditional medicine have been attempted anywhere in the world. Africa has the highest known diversity of bird species used for this purpose. This study assesses the vulnerability of 354 bird species used for traditional medicine in 25 African countries, from 205 genera, 70 families, and 25 orders. The orders most represented were Passeriformes (107 species, Falconiformes (45 species, and Coraciiformes (24 species, and the families Accipitridae (37 species, Ardeidae (15 species, and Bucerotidae (12 species. The Barn owl (Tyto alba was the most widely sold species (seven countries. The similarity of avifaunal orders traded is high (analogous to "morphospecies", and using Sørensen's index, which suggests opportunities for a common understanding of cultural factors driving demand. The highest similarity was between bird orders sold in markets of Benin vs. Burkina Faso (90%, but even bird orders sold in two geographically separated countries (Benin vs. South Africa and Nigeria vs. South Africa were 87% and 81% similar, respectively. Rabinowitz's "7 forms of rarity" model, used to group species according to commonness or rarity, indicated that 24% of traded bird species are very common, locally abundant in several habitats, and occur over a large geographical area, but 10% are rare, occur in low numbers in specific habitats, and over a small geographical area. The order with the highest proportion of rare species was the Musophagiformes. An analysis of species mass (as a proxy for size indicated that large and/or conspicuous species tend to be targeted by harvesters for the traditional medicine trade. Furthermore, based on cluster analyses for species groups of similar risk, vultures, hornbills, and other large avifauna, such as bustards, are most threatened by selective harvesting and should be prioritised for conservation action.

  15. Spatially quantitative models for vulnerability analyses and resilience measures in flood risk management: Case study Rafina, Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karagiorgos, Konstantinos; Chiari, Michael; Hübl, Johannes; Maris, Fotis; Thaler, Thomas; Fuchs, Sven

    2013-04-01

    We will address spatially quantitative models for vulnerability analyses in flood risk management in the catchment of Rafina, 25 km east of Athens, Greece; and potential measures to reduce damage costs. The evaluation of flood damage losses is relatively advanced. Nevertheless, major problems arise since there are no market prices for the evaluation process available. Moreover, there is particular gap in quantifying the damages and necessary expenditures for the implementation of mitigation measures with respect to flash floods. The key issue is to develop prototypes for assessing flood losses and the impact of mitigation measures on flood resilience by adjusting a vulnerability model and to further develop the method in a Mediterranean region influenced by both, mountain and coastal characteristics of land development. The objective of this study is to create a spatial and temporal analysis of the vulnerability factors based on a method combining spatially explicit loss data, data on the value of exposed elements at risk, and data on flood intensities. In this contribution, a methodology for the development of a flood damage assessment as a function of the process intensity and the degree of loss is presented. It is shown that (1) such relationships for defined object categories are dependent on site-specific and process-specific characteristics, but there is a correlation between process types that have similar characteristics; (2) existing semi-quantitative approaches of vulnerability assessment for elements at risk can be improved based on the proposed quantitative method; and (3) the concept of risk can be enhanced with respect to a standardised and comprehensive implementation by applying the vulnerability functions to be developed within the proposed research. Therefore, loss data were collected from responsible administrative bodies and analysed on an object level. The used model is based on a basin scale approach as well as data on elements at risk exposed

  16. Understanding radiation and risk: the importance of primary and secondary education

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tada, Junichiro [Japan Synchrotron Radiation Research Institute (SPring-8), Mikaduki, Hyogo (Japan)

    1999-09-01

    In Japan's primary and secondary schools, radiation and radioactivity are taught as part of the curriculum dealing with social science subjects. Students learn much about the hazardous features of radiation, but lack the scientific understanding necessary to build a more balanced picture. Although the same point applies to education covering the harmful effects of volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, electrical storms and so on, public understanding of these events is relatively high and students are generally able to make informed judgments about the risks involved. By contrast, their limited understanding of radiation often contributes to fears that it is evil or even supernatural. To correct this distortion, it is important that primary and secondary education includes a scientific explanation of radiation. Like heat and light, radiation is fundamental to the history of the universe; and scientific education programs should give appropriate emphasis to this important subject. Students would then be able to make more objective judgments about the useful and hazardous aspects of radiation. (author)

  17. Understanding your supply chain to reduce the risk of supply chain disruption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wildgoose, Nick; Brennan, Patrick; Thompson, Simon

    2012-01-01

    Supply chains are at the heart of the way in which organisations operate and compete today; they also play a critical role in overall organisation performance. In the context of increasingly complex and global supply chains, the actions taken to drive down costs are likely to drive risk into the supply chain. The frequency of supply chain disruptions is high and this paper offers practical advice to help reduce the frequency and cost associated with these. There is advice to help with the understanding of how to identify critical suppliers. The reader is guided through comprehensive risk assessment and mitigation approaches and a selection of practical risk solutions and tools that you can use is described. There is a section on the 'dos and don'ts' relating to supplier due diligence. For those organisations facing the challenge of drawing up a business case relating to investment in improving supply chain resiliency, there is also a section outlining some of the business benefits of improving supply chain resiliency.

  18. Understanding the Relationships Between Inspection Results and Risk of Foodborne Illness in Restaurants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Petrona; Hedberg, Craig W

    2016-10-01

    Restaurants are important settings for foodborne disease outbreaks and consumers are increasingly using restaurant inspection results to guide decisions about where to eat. Although public posting of inspection results may lead to improved sanitary practices in the restaurant, the relationship between inspection results and risk of foodborne illness appears to be pathogen specific. To further examine the relationship between inspection results and the risk of foodborne disease outbreaks, we evaluated results of routine inspections conducted in multiple restaurants in a chain (Chain A) that was associated with a large Salmonella outbreak in Illinois. Inspection results were collected from 106 Chain A establishments in eight counties. Forty-six outbreak-associated cases were linked to 23 of these Chain A restaurants. There were no significant differences between the outbreak and nonoutbreak restaurants for overall demerit points or for the number of demerit points attributed to hand washing or cross-contamination. Our analyses strongly suggest that the outbreak resulted from consumption of a contaminated fresh produce item without further amplification within individual restaurants. Inspections at these facilities would be unlikely to detect or predict the foodborne illness outbreak because there are no Food Code items in place to stop the introduction of contaminated food from an otherwise approved commercial food source. The results of our study suggest that the agent and food item pairing and route of transmission must be taken into consideration to improve our understanding of the relationship between inspection results and the risk of foodborne illness in restaurants.

  19. Understanding Sociocultural Factors Contributing to HIV Risk Among Ayoreo Bolivian Sex Workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    López Entrambasaguas, Olga María; Granero-Molina, José; Hernández-Padilla, Jose; Fernández-Sola, Cayetano

    2015-01-01

    The Bolivian indigenous Ayoreo ethnic people are vulnerable to sexually transmitted infections and HIV. Ayoreo women who also work in sex trades belong to an extremely high-risk group, and prevention programs are not delivering effective outcomes for them. The aim of our study was to explore, describe, and understand behavioral and cultural patterns related to sexual and reproductive health in Ayoreo sex workers. A qualitative-ethnographic study was designed; data were collected through participant observation and in-depth interviews with sex workers and key informants. Two fundamental themes contributing to HIV risk for female Ayoreo sex workers in Bolivia emerged: reproductive/sexual freedom and sociocultural risk determinants. We concluded that the in-depth examination of the sexual-reproductive culture amongst the Ayoreo has provided useful information, which might contribute to the cultural adaptation and design of future policies and prevention programs for sexually transmitted infections and HIV in this group. Copyright © 2015 Association of Nurses in AIDS Care. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. A Quantitative Ecological Risk Assessment of the Toxicological Risks from Exxon Valdez Subsurface Oil Residues to Sea Otters at Northern Knight Island, Prince William Sound, Alaska.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harwell, Mark A; Gentile, John H; Johnson, Charles B; Garshelis, David L; Parker, Keith R

    2010-07-01

    A comprehensive, quantitative risk assessment is presented of the toxicological risks from buried Exxon Valdez subsurface oil residues (SSOR) to a subpopulation of sea otters (Enhydra lutris) at Northern Knight Island (NKI) in Prince William Sound, Alaska, as it has been asserted that this subpopulation of sea otters may be experiencing adverse effects from the SSOR. The central questions in this study are: could the risk to NKI sea otters from exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in SSOR, as characterized in 2001-2003, result in individual health effects, and, if so, could that exposure cause subpopulation-level effects? We follow the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) risk paradigm by: (a) identifying potential routes of exposure to PAHs from SSOR; (b) developing a quantitative simulation model of exposures using the best available scientific information; (c) developing scenarios based on calculated probabilities of sea otter exposures to SSOR; (d) simulating exposures for 500,000 modeled sea otters and extracting the 99.9% quantile most highly exposed individuals; and (e) comparing projected exposures to chronic toxicity reference values. Results indicate that, even under conservative assumptions in the model, maximum-exposed sea otters would not receive a dose of PAHs sufficient to cause any health effects; consequently, no plausible toxicological risk exists from SSOR to the sea otter subpopulation at NKI.

  1. A quantitative assessment of the risk for highly pathogenic avian influenza introduction into Spain via legal trade of live poultry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sánchez-Vizcaíno, Fernando; Perez, Andrés; Lainez, Manuel; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, José Manuel

    2010-05-01

    Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is considered one of the most important diseases of poultry. During the last 9 years, HPAI epidemics have been reported in Asia, the Americas, Africa, and in 18 countries of the European Union (EU). For that reason, it is possible that the risk for HPAI virus (HPAIV) introduction into Spain may have recently increased. Because of the EU free-trade policy and because legal trade of live poultry was considered an important route for HPAI spread in certain regions of the world, there are fears that Spain may become HPAIV-infected as a consequence of the legal introduction of live poultry. However, no quantitative assessment of the risk for HPAIV introduction into Spain or into any other EU member state via the trade of poultry has been published in the peer-reviewed literature. This article presents the results of the first quantitative assessment of the risk for HPAIV introduction into a free country via legal trade of live poultry, along with estimates of the geographical variation of the risk and of the relative contribution of exporting countries and susceptible poultry species to the risk. The annual mean risk for HPAI introduction into Spain was estimated to be as low as 1.36 x 10(-3), suggesting that under prevailing conditions, introduction of HPAIV into Spain through the trade of live poultry is unlikely to occur. Moreover, these results support the hypothesis that legal trade of live poultry does not impose a significant risk for the spread of HPAI into EU member states.

  2. Synthesis strategy: building a culturally sensitive mid-range theory of risk perception using literary, quantitative, and qualitative methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siaki, Leilani A; Loescher, Lois J; Trego, Lori L

    2013-03-01

    This article presents a discussion of development of a mid-range theory of risk perception. Unhealthy behaviours contribute to the development of health inequalities worldwide. The link between perceived risk and successful health behaviour change is inconclusive, particularly in vulnerable populations. This may be attributed to inattention to culture. The synthesis strategy of theory building guided the process using three methods: (1) a systematic review of literature published between 2000-2011 targeting perceived risk in vulnerable populations; (2) qualitative and (3) quantitative data from a study of Samoan Pacific Islanders at high risk of cardiovascular disease and diabetes. Main concepts of this theory include risk attention, appraisal processes, cognition, and affect. Overarching these concepts is health-world view: cultural ways of knowing, beliefs, values, images, and ideas. This theory proposes the following: (1) risk attention varies based on knowledge of the health risk in the context of health-world views; (2) risk appraisals are influenced by affect, health-world views, cultural customs, and protocols that intersect with the health risk; (3) strength of cultural beliefs, values, and images (cultural identity) mediate risk attention and risk appraisal influencing the likelihood that persons will engage in health-promoting behaviours that may contradict cultural customs/protocols. Interventions guided by a culturally sensitive mid-range theory may improve behaviour-related health inequalities in vulnerable populations. The synthesis strategy is an intensive process for developing a culturally sensitive mid-range theory. Testing of the theory will ascertain its usefulness for reducing health inequalities in vulnerable groups. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  3. A quantitative microbial risk assessment for meatborne Toxoplasma gondii infection in The Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Opsteegh, M.; Prickaerts, S.; Frankena, K.; Evers, E.G.

    2011-01-01

    Toxoplasma gondii is an important foodborne pathogen, and the cause of a high disease burden due to congenital toxoplasmosis in The Netherlands. The aim of this study was to quantify the relative contribution of sheep, beef and pork products to human T. gondii infections by Quantitative Microbial

  4. Behaviour of individual spores of non proteolytic Clostridium botulinum as an element in quantitative risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smelt, J.P.; Stringer, S.C.; Brul, S.

    2013-01-01

    Botulism is a true food poisoning hazard. It is caused by a deadly neurotoxin produced in food by the spore forming organism Clostridium botulinum, which is found in soil all over the world. The frequency of botulism cases is rare, but each year a number of them occur. Ideally a quantitative

  5. Meta-analysis for quantitative microbiological risk assessments and benchmarking data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Besten, den H.M.W.; Zwietering, M.H.

    2012-01-01

    Meta-analysis studies are increasingly being conducted in the food microbiology area to quantitatively integrate the findings of many individual studies on specific questions or kinetic parameters of interest. Meta-analyses provide global estimates of parameters and quantify their variabilities, and

  6. Improved cancer risk stratification and diagnosis via quantitative phase microscopy (Conference Presentation)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yang; Uttam, Shikhar; Pham, Hoa V.; Hartman, Douglas J.

    2017-02-01

    Pathology remains the gold standard for cancer diagnosis and in some cases prognosis, in which trained pathologists examine abnormality in tissue architecture and cell morphology characteristic of cancer cells with a bright-field microscope. The limited resolution of conventional microscope can result in intra-observer variation, missed early-stage cancers, and indeterminate cases that often result in unnecessary invasive procedures in the absence of cancer. Assessment of nanoscale structural characteristics via quantitative phase represents a promising strategy for identifying pre-cancerous or cancerous cells, due to its nanoscale sensitivity to optical path length, simple sample preparation (i.e., label-free) and low cost. I will present the development of quantitative phase microscopy system in transmission and reflection configuration to detect the structural changes in nuclear architecture, not be easily identifiable by conventional pathology. Specifically, we will present the use of transmission-mode quantitative phase imaging to improve diagnostic accuracy of urine cytology and the nuclear dry mass is progressively correlate with negative, atypical, suspicious and positive cytological diagnosis. In a second application, we will present the use of reflection-mode quantitative phase microscopy for depth-resolved nanoscale nuclear architecture mapping (nanoNAM) of clinically prepared formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tissue sections. We demonstrated that the quantitative phase microscopy system detects a gradual increase in the density alteration of nuclear architecture during malignant transformation in animal models of colon carcinogenesis and in human patients with ulcerative colitis, even in tissue that appears histologically normal according to pathologists. We evaluated the ability of nanoNAM to predict "future" cancer progression in patients with ulcerative colitis.

  7. Designing SQCRA as a Software to Semi-quantitative Chemical Risk Assessment in Workplace

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Karimi

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Background & Objectives : The aim of chemical risk assessment is to identify and evaluate risks originated from chemicals usages. This study aims to design a practical tool for facilitating chemical risk assessment. Methods: The proposed software was derived from chemical risk assessment method which was recommended by Ministry of Human Resources of Malaysia. All of the processes in question are designed in operating system software. Based on some revisions, this software was developed using Visual Basic (VB titled as SQCRA. The developed software was used for chemical risk assessment in Narges Vegetale Oil Company in Shiraz (center of Iran. Result: The output of software showed that the level of risk derived from sulfuric acid, phosphoric acid, aluminum sulphate, nickel catalyst, acetic acid used as a raw material were 2.4, 2.84, 2.3, 3.5 and 2.66, respectively. Moreover, risk rank and proposed control methods for each of these materials were determined. Conclusions : The developed software calculates the health risk level based on the degree of hazard and exposure in shorttime and without using risk matrix and chemical formula. After determining the risk rank, the software proposes the control procedures to reduce occupational exposure.

  8. Quantitative microbial risk assessment for spray irrigation of dairy manure based on an empirical fate and transport model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burch, Tucker R; Spencer, Susan K.; Stokdyk, Joel; Kieke, Burney A; Larson, Rebecca A; Firnstahl, Aaron; Rule, Ana M; Borchardt, Mark A.

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Spray irrigation for land-applying livestock manure is increasing in the United States as farms become larger and economies of scale make manure irrigation affordable. Human health risks from exposure to zoonotic pathogens aerosolized during manure irrigation are not well understood. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to a) estimate human health risks due to aerosolized zoonotic pathogens downwind of spray-irrigated dairy manure; and b) determine which factors (e.g., distance, weather conditions) have the greatest influence on risk estimates. METHODS: We sampled downwind air concentrations of manure-borne fecal indicators and zoonotic pathogens during 21 full-scale dairy manure irri- gation events at three farms. We fit these data to hierarchical empirical models and used model outputs in a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) to estimate risk [probability of acute gastrointestinal illness (AGI)] for individuals exposed to spray-irrigated dairy manure containing Campylobacter jejuni, enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli (EHEC), or Salmonella spp. RESULTS: Median risk estimates from Monte Carlo simulations ranged from 10−5 to 10−2 and decreased with distance from the source. Risk estimates for Salmonella or EHEC-related AGI were most sensitive to the assumed level of pathogen prevalence in dairy manure, while risk estimates for C. jejuni were not sensitive to any single variable. Airborne microbe concentrations were negatively associated with distance and positively associated with wind speed, both of which were retained in models as a significant predictor more often than relative humidity, solar irradiation, or temperature. CONCLUSIONS: Our model-based estimates suggest that reducing pathogen prevalence and concentration in source manure would reduce the risk of AGI from exposure to manure irrigation, and that increasing the distance from irrigated manure (i.e., setbacks) and limiting irrigation to times of low wind speed may also reduce risk.

  9. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for Spray Irrigation of Dairy Manure Based on an Empirical Fate and Transport Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burch, Tucker R; Spencer, Susan K; Stokdyk, Joel P; Kieke, Burney A; Larson, Rebecca A; Firnstahl, Aaron D; Rule, Ana M; Borchardt, Mark A

    2017-08-16

    Spray irrigation for land-applying livestock manure is increasing in the United States as farms become larger and economies of scale make manure irrigation affordable. Human health risks from exposure to zoonotic pathogens aerosolized during manure irrigation are not well understood. We aimed to a ) estimate human health risks due to aerosolized zoonotic pathogens downwind of spray-irrigated dairy manure; and b ) determine which factors (e.g., distance, weather conditions) have the greatest influence on risk estimates. We sampled downwind air concentrations of manure-borne fecal indicators and zoonotic pathogens during 21 full-scale dairy manure irrigation events at three farms. We fit these data to hierarchical empirical models and used model outputs in a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) to estimate risk [probability of acute gastrointestinal illness (AGI)] for individuals exposed to spray-irrigated dairy manure containing Campylobacter jejuni , enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli (EHEC), or Salmonella spp. Median risk estimates from Monte Carlo simulations ranged from 10 -5 to 10 -2 and decreased with distance from the source. Risk estimates for Salmonella or EHEC-related AGI were most sensitive to the assumed level of pathogen prevalence in dairy manure, while risk estimates for C. jejuni were not sensitive to any single variable. Airborne microbe concentrations were negatively associated with distance and positively associated with wind speed, both of which were retained in models as a significant predictor more often than relative humidity, solar irradiation, or temperature. Our model-based estimates suggest that reducing pathogen prevalence and concentration in source manure would reduce the risk of AGI from exposure to manure irrigation, and that increasing the distance from irrigated manure (i.e., setbacks) and limiting irrigation to times of low wind speed may also reduce risk. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP283.

  10. Comparing models for quantitative risk assessment: an application to the European Registry of foreign body injuries in children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berchialla, Paola; Scarinzi, Cecilia; Snidero, Silvia; Gregori, Dario

    2016-08-01

    Risk Assessment is the systematic study of decisions subject to uncertain consequences. An increasing interest has been focused on modeling techniques like Bayesian Networks since their capability of (1) combining in the probabilistic framework different type of evidence including both expert judgments and objective data; (2) overturning previous beliefs in the light of the new information being received and (3) making predictions even with incomplete data. In this work, we proposed a comparison among Bayesian Networks and other classical Quantitative Risk Assessment techniques such as Neural Networks, Classification Trees, Random Forests and Logistic Regression models. Hybrid approaches, combining both Classification Trees and Bayesian Networks, were also considered. Among Bayesian Networks, a clear distinction between purely data-driven approach and combination of expert knowledge with objective data is made. The aim of this paper consists in evaluating among this models which best can be applied, in the framework of Quantitative Risk Assessment, to assess the safety of children who are exposed to the risk of inhalation/insertion/aspiration of consumer products. The issue of preventing injuries in children is of paramount importance, in particular where product design is involved: quantifying the risk associated to product characteristics can be of great usefulness in addressing the product safety design regulation. Data of the European Registry of Foreign Bodies Injuries formed the starting evidence for risk assessment. Results showed that Bayesian Networks appeared to have both the ease of interpretability and accuracy in making prediction, even if simpler models like logistic regression still performed well. © The Author(s) 2013.

  11. Quantitative rock-fall hazard and risk assessment for Yosemite Valley, Yosemite National Park, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stock, Greg M.; Luco, Nicolas; Collins, Brian D.; Harp, Edwin L.; Reichenbach, Paola; Frankel, Kurt L.

    2014-01-01

    Rock falls are common in Yosemite Valley, California, posing substantial hazard and risk to the approximately four million annual visitors to Yosemite National Park. Rock falls in Yosemite Valley over the past few decades have damaged structures and caused injuries within developed regions located on or adjacent to talus slopes highlighting the need for additional investigations into rock-fall hazard and risk. This assessment builds upon previous investigations of rock-fall hazard and risk in Yosemite Valley and focuses on hazard and risk to structures posed by relatively frequent fragmental-type rock falls as large as approximately 100,000 (cubic meters) in volume.

  12. Understanding self-Blame as a risk for unemployed young people

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pultz, Sabina

    Young people face the risk of unemployment in a labor market characterized by a drift towards precarious employment (Kalleberg, 2013). Building on governmentality perspectives this study documents how understanding of unemployment is affected by neoliberal discourses reflected in the technologies...... observations made at respectively the unemployment center and an unemployment insurance fund and in-depth interviews with ten young unemployed. The study investigates the discourses and technologies applied by the unemployment institutions and explores how the young unemployed people experience their situation...... and make sense of it and how they position themselves in regards to this normative demand to blame themselves. Personal branding and networking are identified as strategies enforced by the employment system and can be viewed as technologies of the self (Rose, 1996) encouraging young people to modulate...

  13. Quantitative coronary plaque analysis predicts high-risk plaque morphology on coronary computed tomography angiography: results from the ROMICAT II trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Ting; Maurovich-Horvat, Pál; Mayrhofer, Thomas; Puchner, Stefan B; Lu, Michael T; Ghemigian, Khristine; Kitslaar, Pieter H; Broersen, Alexander; Pursnani, Amit; Hoffmann, Udo; Ferencik, Maros

    2018-02-01

    Semi-automated software can provide quantitative assessment of atherosclerotic plaques on coronary CT angiography (CTA). The relationship between established qualitative high-risk plaque features and quantitative plaque measurements has not been studied. We analyzed the association between quantitative plaque measurements and qualitative high-risk plaque features on coronary CTA. We included 260 patients with plaque who underwent coronary CTA in the Rule Out Myocardial Infarction/Ischemia Using Computer Assisted Tomography (ROMICAT) II trial. Quantitative plaque assessment and qualitative plaque characterization were performed on a per coronary segment basis. Quantitative coronary plaque measurements included plaque volume, plaque burden, remodeling index, and diameter stenosis. In qualitative analysis, high-risk plaque was present if positive remodeling, low CT attenuation plaque, napkin-ring sign or spotty calcium were detected. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the association between quantitative and qualitative high-risk plaque assessment. Among 888 segments with coronary plaque, high-risk plaque was present in 391 (44.0%) segments by qualitative analysis. In quantitative analysis, segments with high-risk plaque had higher total plaque volume, low CT attenuation plaque volume, plaque burden and remodeling index. Quantitatively assessed low CT attenuation plaque volume (odds ratio 1.12 per 1 mm 3 , 95% CI 1.04-1.21), positive remodeling (odds ratio 1.25 per 0.1, 95% CI 1.10-1.41) and plaque burden (odds ratio 1.53 per 0.1, 95% CI 1.08-2.16) were associated with high-risk plaque. Quantitative coronary plaque characteristics (low CT attenuation plaque volume, positive remodeling and plaque burden) measured by semi-automated software correlated with qualitative assessment of high-risk plaque features.

  14. 17 CFR 229.305 - (Item 305) Quantitative and qualitative disclosures about market risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... are: (i)(A)(1) Tabular presentation of information related to market risk sensitive instruments; such information shall include fair values of the market risk sensitive instruments and contract terms sufficient... for presentation of this information; and (B) Registrants shall provide a description of the contents...

  15. A suite of models to support the quantitative assessment of spread in pest risk analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Robinet, C.; Kehlenbeck, H.; Kriticos, D.J.; Baker, R.H.A.; Battisti, A.; Brunel, S.; Dupin, M.; Eyre, D.; Faccoli, M.; Ilieva, Z.; Kenis, M.; Knight, J.; Reynaud, P.; Yart, A.; Werf, van der W.

    2012-01-01

    Pest Risk Analyses (PRAs) are conducted worldwide to decide whether and how exotic plant pests should be regulated to prevent invasion. There is an increasing demand for science-based risk mapping in PRA. Spread plays a key role in determining the potential distribution of pests, but there is no

  16. Development of a social-hydrological-health framework for understanding risks of occurrence of diarrheal diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, M. R. H.; Jutla, A.; Colwell, R. R.

    2015-12-01

    Diarrheal diseases continue to pose a severe health threat in regions where sanitation facilities remain marginal and are prone to destruction. With limited efficacy of vaccines, it is important to device alternate methods to determine environmental conditions favorable for diarrheal diseases. Several vibrios (V. cholerae., V. vulnificus, V. parahaemolyticus) have characteristic signatures that are associated with large scale climatic processes. The interactions of vibrios with humans eventually lead to outbreak of diseases. Here, using cholera as one of the signature diarrheal disease, we present a framework coupling social, hydrological and microbiological understanding with satellite remote sensing data to predict environmental conditions associated with outbreak of disease in several regions of sub-Saharan Africa. Hydroclimatic processes, primarily precipitation and temperature are found to be strongly associated with epidemic and episodic outbreak of cholera. We will present an algorithm to classify regions susceptible to risks of outbreak cholera using profile method in five epidemic regions of Mozambique, Central African Republic, Cameroon, South Sudan and Rwanda. Conditions for occurrence of cholera were detectable at least one month in advance. Using spatial land surface temperature (LST) data from satellites along with water accessibility data and population data, the implementation of the algorithm aid in classification of cholera risk regions.

  17. Using community archetypes to better understand differential community adaptation to wildfire risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carroll, Matthew; Paveglio, Travis

    2016-06-05

    One of the immediate challenges of wildfire management concerns threats to human safety and property in residential areas adjacent to non-cultivated vegetation. One approach for relieving this problem is to increase human community 'adaptiveness' to deal with the risk and reality of fire in a variety of landscapes. The challenge in creating 'fire-adapted communities' (FACs) is the great diversity in character and make-up of populations at risk from wildfire. This paper outlines a recently developed categorization scheme for Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) communities based on a larger conceptual approach for understanding how social diversity is likely to influence the creation of FACs. The WUI categorization scheme situates four community archetypes on a continuum that recognizes dynamic change in human community functioning. We use results from the WUI classification scheme to outline key characteristics associated with each archetype and results from recent case studies to demonstrate the diversity across WUI communities. Differences among key characteristics of local social context will likely result in the need for different adaptation strategies to wildfire. While the WUI archetypes described here may not be broadly applicable to other parts of the world, we argue that the conceptual approach and strategies for systematically documenting local influences on wildfire adaptation have potential for broad application.This article is part of the themed issue 'The interaction of fire and mankind'. © 2016 The Author(s).

  18. Quantitative assessment of the risks of reducing the routine swabbing requirements for the detection of Taylorella equigenitalis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, J L N; Kelly, L; Cardwell, J M; Park, A W

    2005-07-09

    The transmission of contagious equine metritis (CEM) on stud farms in Britain, Ireland and other European countries is prevented by following the recommendations in the Horserace Betting Levy Board's Code of Practice on CEM. A quantitative risk assessment was undertaken to estimate the likely impact of removing the recommendation, from the 2002 code, to culture endometrial or cervical swabs microaerophilically for the presence of Taylorella equigenitalis, the causative organism. The scientific literature was reviewed for evidence about the anatomical distribution of T. equigenitalis at different times after infection and it was found that, in chronically infected mares, the organism was detectable in the clitoral swabs of nearly 93 per cent, but in the cervical swabs of only 31 per cent. In contrast, in acutely infected mares, the organism was detectable in the clitoral swabs of nearly 69 per cent, but in the cervical swabs of 84 per cent. By using these results, a quantitative risk assessment was undertaken, assessing the likely effects of removing the recommendation that swabs from the cervix of low-risk mares should be cultured for T. equigenitalis. The results were sensitive to the prevalence of the infection, but when it was low, there appeared to be few benefits in continuing to culture cervical swabs routinely. However, such swabs are vital when the disease is suspected.

  19. Understanding of the risk of HIV infection among the elderly in Ga-Rankuwa, South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lekalakala-Mokgele, Eucebious

    2014-01-01

    The literature pertaining to the elderly shows that HIV infection among this population is on the increase, suggesting that the elderly population engages in activities risky for HIV infection. Reports on such behaviour include frequent sexual relations with much younger people and having multiple partners. A study was carried out in Ga-Rankuwa, a black township in Gauteng Province, South Africa to explore and describe the understanding of these elderly people regarding their risks of HIV infection and AIDS. Using a qualitative, exploratory design, three focus-group interviews were conducted with 32 women aged over 50 years. Findings revealed that older persons have knowledge about transmission of HIV infection and AIDS. However, a few had misconceptions as to how HIV infection is transmitted, as they believed that poor nutrition and sharing facilities play a role. Knowledge of mechanisms of protecting themselves against infection, such as use of a condom during coitus and wearing gloves when caring for infected family members, was also evident. The elderly indicated that they would prefer an older person, who they could identify with, to educate them more about HIV infection and AIDS. Although majority of participants had knowledge of how HIV is transmitted, and issues that put them at risk of transmission, a few the older persons had misconceptions about how HIV is transmitted due to lack of knowledge, as they believed that poor nutrition and sharing facilities can transmit infection. The lack of knowledge underscores the importance of addressing sexual risk with older people. It was very clear that more needs to be done in terms of education campaigns to dispel the myths of HIV infection and to empower the elderly.

  20. Community Resilience: Increasing Public Understanding of Risk and Vulnerability to Natural Hazards through Informal Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salna, E.

    2017-12-01

    The Extreme Events Institute's (EEI) International Hurricane Research Center (IHRC) at Florida International University (FIU) in Miami, Florida, as a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador, is dedicated to make South Florida, Ready, Responsive and Resilient. IHRC with funding from the Florida Division of Emergency Management (FDEM) has developed several museum exhibits and events. This includes the hands-on FIU Wall of Wind exhibit for the National Building Museum in Washington, DC, the Frost Science Museum in Miami, Florida, and the Museum of Discovery and Science (MODS) in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. The exhibit teaches the public about hurricane wind engineering research, enhanced building codes, and the importance of protecting your home's windows and doors with code-approved shutters. In addition, IHRC and MODS facilitate Eye of the Storm, a free-of-charge, community event with interactive hurricane science, and preparedness activities, including the entertaining Owlie Skywarn live theater show and live air cannon missile impact demonstrations. This annual event includes many local, state and federal partners, including NOAA and NWS. The IHRC also developed the FIU Wall of Wind Mitigation Challenge. As the next generation of engineers to address natural hazards and extreme weather, this STEM education event features a competition between high school teams to develop innovative wind mitigation concepts and real-life human safety and property protection solutions. IHRC and MODS are also developing a new exhibit of a Hazard/Risk Equation that will "come to life," through virtual reality (VR) technology in a state-of-the art 7D theater. The exhibit will provide a better public understanding of how changes in exposures and vulnerabilities will determine whether a community experiences an emergency, disaster or catastrophe. It will raise public consciousness and drive home the point that communities need not passively accept natural hazard risks. Ultimately, if we raise

  1. Understanding flood risk sensitivity and uncertainty in a subcatchment of the Thames River (United Kingdom)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Theofanidi, Sofia; Cloke, Hannah Louise; Clark, Joanna

    2017-04-01

    Floods are a global threat to social, economic and environmental development and there is a likelihood, that they could occur more frequently in the future due to climatic change. The severity of their impacts, which can last for years, has led to the urgent need for local communities and national authorities to develop flood warning systems for a better flood preparedness and emergency response. The flood warning systems often rely on hydrological forecasting tools to predict the hydrological response of a watershed before or during a flood event. Hydrological models have been substantially upgraded since the first use of hydrographs and the use of simple conceptual models. Hydrodynamic and hydraulic routing enables the spatial and temporal prediction of flow rates (peak discharges) and water levels. Moreover, the hydrodynamic modeling in 2D permits the estimation of the flood inundation area. This can be particularly useful because the flood zones can provide essential information about the flood risk and the flood damage. In this study, we use a hydrodynamic model which can simulate water levels and river flows in open channel conditions. The model can incorporate the effect of several river structures in the flood modeling process, such as the existence of bridges and weirs. The flood routing method is based on the solution of continuity and energy momentum equations. In addition, the floodplain inundation modeling which is based on the solution of shallow water equations along the channel's banks, will be used for the mapping of flood extent. A GIS interface will serve as a database, including high resolution topography, vector layers of river network, gauging stations, land use and land cover, geology and soil information. The flood frequency analysis, together with historical records on flood warnings, will enable the understanding on the flow regimes and the selection of particular flood events for modeling. One dimensional and two dimensional simulations

  2. Quantitative evaluation of the risk induced by dominant geomorphological processes on different land uses, based on GIS spatial analysis models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ştefan, Bilaşco; Sanda, Roşca; Ioan, Fodorean; Iuliu, Vescan; Sorin, Filip; Dănuţ, Petrea

    2017-12-01

    Maramureş Land is mostly characterized by agricultural and forestry land use due to its specific configuration of topography and its specific pedoclimatic conditions. Taking into consideration the trend of the last century from the perspective of land management, a decrease in the surface of agricultural lands to the advantage of built-up and grass lands, as well as an accelerated decrease in the forest cover due to uncontrolled and irrational forest exploitation, has become obvious. The field analysis performed on the territory of Maramureş Land has highlighted a high frequency of two geomorphologic processes — landslides and soil erosion — which have a major negative impact on land use due to their rate of occurrence. The main aim of the present study is the GIS modeling of the two geomorphologic processes, determining a state of vulnerability (the USLE model for soil erosion and a quantitative model based on the morphometric characteristics of the territory, derived from the HG. 447/2003) and their integration in a complex model of cumulated vulnerability identification. The modeling of the risk exposure was performed using a quantitative approach based on models and equations of spatial analysis, which were developed with modeled raster data structures and primary vector data, through a matrix highlighting the correspondence between vulnerability and land use classes. The quantitative analysis of the risk was performed by taking into consideration the exposure classes as modeled databases and the land price as a primary alphanumeric database using spatial analysis techniques for each class by means of the attribute table. The spatial results highlight the territories with a high risk to present geomorphologic processes that have a high degree of occurrence and represent a useful tool in the process of spatial planning.

  3. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for Campylobacter spp. on Ham in Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jeeyeon; Ha, Jimyeong; Kim, Sejeong; Lee, Heeyoung; Lee, Soomin; Yoon, Yohan

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this study was to evaluate the risk of illness from Campylobacter spp. on ham. To identify the hazards of Campylobacter spp. on ham, the general characteristics and microbial criteria for Campylobacter spp., and campylobacteriosis outbreaks were investigated. In the exposure assessment, the prevalence of Campylobacter spp. on ham was evaluated, and the probabilistic distributions for the temperature of ham surfaces in retail markets and home refrigerators were prepared. In addition, the raw data from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHNES) 2012 were used to estimate the consumption amount and frequency of ham. In the hazard characterization, the Beta-Poisson model for Campylobacter spp. infection was used. For risk characterization, a simulation model was developed using the collected data, and the risk of Campylobacter spp. on ham was estimated with @RISK. The Campylobacter spp. cell counts on ham samples were below the detection limit (ham was 23.93 g per person, and the consumption frequency was 11.57%. The simulated mean value of the initial contamination level of Campylobacter spp. on ham was -3.95 Log CFU/g, and the mean value of ham for probable risk per person per day was 2.20×10(-12). It is considered that the risk of foodborne illness for Campylobacter spp. was low. Furthermore, these results indicate that the microbial risk assessment of Campylobacter spp. in this study should be useful in providing scientific evidence to set up the criteria of Campylobacter spp..

  4. Quantitative modeling of operational risk in finance and banking using possibility theory

    CERN Document Server

    Chaudhuri, Arindam

    2016-01-01

    This book offers a comprehensive guide to the modelling of operational risk using possibility theory. It provides a set of methods for measuring operational risks under a certain degree of vagueness and impreciseness, as encountered in real-life data. It shows how possibility theory and indeterminate uncertainty-encompassing degrees of belief can be applied in analysing the risk function, and describes the parametric g-and-h distribution associated with extreme value theory as an interesting candidate in this regard. The book offers a complete assessment of fuzzy methods for determining both value at risk (VaR) and subjective value at risk (SVaR), together with a stability estimation of VaR and SVaR. Based on the simulation studies and case studies reported on here, the possibilistic quantification of risk performs consistently better than the probabilistic model. Risk is evaluated by integrating two fuzzy techniques: the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and the fuzzy extension of techniques for order prefere...

  5. The action suited to the word? Use of the framework of risk information seeking to understand risk-related behaviors.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kievik, Milou; ter Huurne, E.F.J.; Gutteling, Jan M.

    2012-01-01

    Although a growing body of risk communication research focuses on how people process risk information, one question that is overlooked is how the seeking of information contributes to behavioral adaptation toward the risk issue. How are people’s behavioral responses to risks affected by the search

  6. Using Quantitative Data Analysis Techniques for Bankruptcy Risk Estimation for Corporations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ştefan Daniel ARMEANU

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Diversification of methods and techniques for quantification and management of risk has led to the development of many mathematical models, a large part of which focused on measuring bankruptcy risk for businesses. In financial analysis there are many indicators which can be used to assess the risk of bankruptcy of enterprises but to make an assessment it is needed to reduce the number of indicators and this can be achieved through principal component, cluster and discriminant analyses techniques. In this context, the article aims to build a scoring function used to identify bankrupt companies, using a sample of companies listed on Bucharest Stock Exchange.

  7. Probabilistic quantitative microbial risk assessment model of norovirus from wastewater irrigated vegetables in Ghana using genome copies and fecal indicator ratio conversion for estimating exposure dose

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Owusu-Ansah, Emmanuel de-Graft Johnson; Sampson, Angelina; Amponsah, Samuel K.

    2017-01-01

    The need to replace the commonly applied fecal indicator conversions ratio (an assumption of 1:10− 5 virus to fecal indicator organism) in Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) with models based on quantitative data on the virus of interest has gained prominence due to the different physi...

  8. Presentation of a method for consequence modeling and quantitative risk assessment of fire and explosion in process industry (Case study: Hydrogen Production Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M J Jafari

    2013-05-01

     .Conclusion: Since the proposed method is applicable in all phases of process or system design, and estimates the risk of fire and explosion by a quantitative, comprehensive and mathematical-based equations approach. It can be used as an alternative method instead of qualitative and semi quantitative methods.

  9. Quantitative microbial risk assessment of Salmonella in dry fermented sausage (salami) in Southern Brazil

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Corbellini, Luis Gustavo; Costa, Eduardo de Freitas; Cardoso, Marisa

    2017-01-01

    Dry fermented sausage (salami) is a very popular ready-to-eat product in Southern Brazil, of which the raw materials can be contaminated with pathogens such as Salmonella. This product can put consumers at risk if a failure occurs during the manufacturing process. To investigate this risk...... model (MPRM) approach. A total of 405 scenarios were tested combining five scenarios for sausage fermentation, three maturation times (12, 15, and 24 days), nine scenarios for prevalence and concentrations of Salmonella on pork carcasses, and three scenarios for clustering of cells (homogeneous...... and heterogeneous). In general, it was observed that the mean exposure to Salmonella due to ingestion of a portion of contaminated salami was very low; "zero risks" (with no cases of salmonellosis among 100,000 consumed portions of salami) were found in 65% of the scenarios (265/405) assessed and low risks were...

  10. Potential impacts of radon, terrestrial gamma and cosmic rays on childhood leukemia in France: a quantitative risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laurent, Olivier [French Institute for Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety, Radiobiology and Epidemiology Department, IRSN, PRP-HOM, SRBE, LEPID, Fontenay aux Roses (France); University of California, Irvine, Department of Population Health and Disease Prevention, Irvine, CA (United States); Ancelet, Sophie; Laurier, Dominique [French Institute for Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety, Radiobiology and Epidemiology Department, IRSN, PRP-HOM, SRBE, LEPID, Fontenay aux Roses (France); Richardson, David B. [University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Chapel Hill, NC (United States); Hemon, Denis; Demoury, Claire; Clavel, Jacqueline [Inserm, CESP Center for Research in Epidemiology and Population Health, U1018, Environmental Epidemiology of Cancer Team, Villejuif (France); Paris-Sud University, UMRS 1018, Villejuif (France); Ielsch, Geraldine [French Institute for Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety, Assessment Unit for Risks Related to Natural Radioactivity, IRSN, PRP-DGE, SEDRAN, BRN, Fontenay aux Roses (France)

    2013-05-15

    Previous epidemiological studies and quantitative risk assessments (QRA) have suggested that natural background radiation may be a cause of childhood leukemia. The present work uses a QRA approach to predict the excess risk of childhood leukemia in France related to three components of natural radiation: radon, cosmic rays and terrestrial gamma rays, using excess relative and absolute risk models proposed by the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR). Both models were developed from the Life Span Study (LSS) of Japanese A-bomb survivors. Previous risk assessments were extended by considering uncertainties in radiation-related leukemia risk model parameters as part of this process, within a Bayesian framework. Estimated red bone marrow doses cumulated during childhood by the average French child due to radon, terrestrial gamma and cosmic rays are 4.4, 7.5 and 4.3 mSv, respectively. The excess fractions of cases (expressed as percentages) associated with these sources of natural radiation are 20 % [95 % credible interval (CI) 0-68 %] and 4 % (95 % CI 0-11 %) under the excess relative and excess absolute risk models, respectively. The large CIs, as well as the different point estimates obtained under these two models, highlight the uncertainties in predictions of radiation-related childhood leukemia risks. These results are only valid provided that models developed from the LSS can be transferred to the population of French children and to chronic natural radiation exposures, and must be considered in view of the currently limited knowledge concerning other potential risk factors for childhood leukemia. Last, they emphasize the need for further epidemiological investigations of the effects of natural radiation on childhood leukemia to reduce uncertainties and help refine radiation protection standards. (orig.)

  11. Understanding social capital and HIV risk in rural African American communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cené, Crystal W; Akers, Aletha Y; Lloyd, Stacey W; Albritton, Tashuna; Powell Hammond, Wizdom; Corbie-Smith, Giselle

    2011-07-01

    African Americans (AA) and rural communities often suffer disproportionately from poorer health. Theory-guided research examining how individual- and community-level factors influence health behaviors and contribute to disparities is needed. To understand how a social network model that captures the interplay between individual and community factors might inform community-based interventions to reduce HIV risk in rural AA communities. Qualitative study. Eleven focus groups with 38 AA 16-24 year olds, 42 adults over age 25, and 13 formerly incarcerated individuals held in community settings in two rural, predominantly AA counties in North Carolina. Thirty-seven semi-structured interviews with multiethnic key informants. Semi-structured interviews and focus groups with open-ended questions assessed a) perceptions of multi-level HIV risk determinants from a social network model (individual, interpersonal, social, economic, political and structural) identified through literature review and b) community needs and assets affecting local HIV rates. Qualitative data was analyzed using directive content analysis guided by a social network model. We identified four themes regarding the interaction between individuals and their communities that mediate HIV risk: interpersonal processes, community structural environment, social disorder, and civic engagement. Communities were characterized as having a high degree of cohesiveness, tension, and HIV-related stigma. The community structural environment-characterized by neighborhood poverty, lack of skilled jobs, segregation, political disenfranchisement and institutional racism-was felt to reduce the availability and accessibility of resources to combat HIV. Adults noted an inability to combat social problems due to social disorder, which fuels HIV risk behaviors. Civic engagement as a means of identifying community concerns and developing solutions is limited by churches' reluctance to address HIV-related issues. To combat HIV

  12. Quantitative Assessment of the Association between Genetic Variants in MicroRNAs and Colorectal Cancer Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao-Xu Liu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. The associations between polymorphisms in microRNAs and the susceptibility of colorectal cancer (CRC were inconsistent in previous studies. This study aims to quantify the strength of the correlation between the four common polymorphisms among microRNAs (hsa-mir-146a rs2910164, hsa-mir-149 rs2292832, hsa-mir-196a2 rs11614913, and hsa-mir-499 rs3746444 and CRC risk. Methods. We searched PubMed, Web of Knowledge, and CNKI to find relevant studies. The combined odds ratio (OR with 95% confidence interval (95% CI was used to estimate the strength of the association in a fixed or random effect model. Results. 15 studies involving 5,486 CRC patients and 7,184 controls were included. Meta-analyses showed that rs3746444 had association with CRC risk in Caucasians (OR = 0.57, 95% CI = 0.34–0.95. In the subgroup analysis, we found significant associations between rs2910164 and CRC in hospital based studies (OR = 1.24, 95% CI = 1.03–1.49. rs2292832 may be a high risk factor of CRC in population based studied (OR = 1.18, 95% CI = 1.08–1.38. Conclusion. This meta-analysis showed that rs2910164 and rs2292832 may increase the risk of CRC. However, rs11614913 polymorphism may reduce the risk of CRC. rs3746444 may have a decreased risk to CRC in Caucasians.

  13. Logic and Risk as Qualitative and Quantitative Dimensions of Decision-Making Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tadeusz Galanc

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Key problems in the field of decision-making have been considered. The authors' aim was to indicate the extremely important for management role of logic and risk in relation to decisions taken under conditions of uncertainty. In the course of the research, the following hypothesis was tested: the complexity of risk is determined by the diversity of reality. The result of this is that in science there is no current study developing a uniform methodology for the assessment of risk. It might even be doubtful whether it can be created. In a certain sense, this is indicated in the article by the discussion about the dimensions of logic and risk apparent in any decisions taken by a man. The paper presents the complexity and diversity of risk assessment on the basis of selected, but essential to the discussed issue, fields of knowledge. This is valid when the numerical or qualitative level of risk is substantial in the context of the analyzed problem. (original abstract

  14. Understanding the Impact of Childhood Sexual Abuse on Men's Risk Behavior: Protocol for a Mixed-Methods Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Downing, Martin J; Brown, Dominique; Steen, Jeffrey; Benoit, Ellen

    2018-02-26

    Childhood sexual abuse (CSA) remains a critical public health issue among black and Latino men who have sex with men (MSM), as it is associated with multiple negative outcomes including substance misuse, poor mental health, revictimization, and high-risk sexual behavior. Most CSA research with MSM relies on quantitative assessment that often precludes consideration of cultural variations in how formative sexual experiences are understood and is based on inconsistent or overly restrictive definitions of abuse, and therefore may fail to detect certain abusive experiences (eg, those involving female perpetrators), which can have harmful health consequences if they remain unrecognized. The objective of this study is to overcome existing limitations in the literature by drawing on perspectives of black and Latino MSM and men who have sex with men and women (MSMW), as well as relevant service providers to better understand the role of, and the need to include, sexual abuse histories (eg, CSA) in treatment and counseling settings, with the long-term goal of improving assessment and health outcomes. We will conduct mixed-methods interviews, framed by an intersectionality approach, with 80 black and Latino men (40 MSM and 40 MSMW) in New York City (NYC), exploring appraisals of their formative sexual experiences, including those described as consensual but meeting criteria for CSA. We will also interview 30 local service providers representing substance abuse treatment, mental health care, and HIV prevention and outreach. The study was launched in May 2017. This formative research will inform testable approaches to assessing and incorporating sexual abuse history into substance abuse treatment and other health and mental health services used by men with such histories. ©Martin J Downing Jr, Dominique Brown, Jeffrey Steen, Ellen Benoit. Originally published in JMIR Research Protocols (http://www.researchprotocols.org), 26.02.2018.

  15. Skin sensitisation quantitative risk assessment (QRA) based on aggregate dermal exposure to methylisothiazolinone in personal care and household cleaning products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezendam, J; Bokkers, B G H; Bil, W; Delmaar, J E

    2018-02-01

    Contact allergy to preservatives is an important public health problem. Ideally, new substances should be evaluated for the risk on skin sensitisation before market entry, for example by using a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) as developed for fragrances. As a proof-of-concept, this QRA was applied to the preservative methylisothiazolinone (MI), a common cause of contact allergy. MI is used in different consumer products, including personal care products (PCPs) and household cleaning products (HCPs). Aggregate exposure to MI in PCPs and HCPs was therefore assessed with the Probabilistic Aggregated Consumer Exposure Model (PACEM). Two exposure scenarios were evaluated: scenario 1 calculated aggregate exposure on actual MI product concentrations before the restricted use in PCPs and scenario 2 calculated aggregate exposure using the restrictions for MI in PCPs. The QRA for MI showed that in scenarios 1 and 2, the proportion of the population at risk for skin sensitisation is 0.7% and 0.5%, respectively. The restricted use of MI in PCPs does not seem very effective in lowering the risk on skin sensitization. To conclude, it is important to consider aggregate exposure from the most important consumer products into consideration in the risk assessment. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. A quantitative assessment of risks of heavy metal residues in laundered shop towels and their use by workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connor, Kevin; Magee, Brian

    2014-10-01

    This paper presents a risk assessment of exposure to metal residues in laundered shop towels by workers. The concentrations of 27 metals measured in a synthetic sweat leachate were used to estimate the releasable quantity of metals which could be transferred to workers' skin. Worker exposure was evaluated quantitatively with an exposure model that focused on towel-to-hand transfer and subsequent hand-to-food or -mouth transfers. The exposure model was based on conservative, but reasonable assumptions regarding towel use and default exposure factor values from the published literature or regulatory guidance. Transfer coefficients were derived from studies representative of the exposures to towel users. Contact frequencies were based on assumed high-end use of shop towels, but constrained by a theoretical maximum dermal loading. The risk estimates for workers developed for all metals were below applicable regulatory risk benchmarks. The risk assessment for lead utilized the Adult Lead Model and concluded that predicted lead intakes do not constitute a significant health hazard based on potential worker exposures. Uncertainties are discussed in relation to the overall confidence in the exposure estimates developed for each exposure pathway and the likelihood that the exposure model is under- or overestimating worker exposures and risk. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Quantitative risk model for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon photoinduced toxicity in Pacific herring following the Exxon Valdez oil spill.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sellin Jeffries, Marlo K; Claytor, Carrie; Stubblefield, William; Pearson, Walter H; Oris, James T

    2013-05-21

    Phototoxicity occurs when exposure to ultraviolet radiation increases the toxicity of certain contaminants, including polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). This study aimed to (1) develop a quantitative model to predict the risk of PAH phototoxicity to fish, (2) assess the predictive value of the model, and (3) estimate the risk of PAH phototoxicity to larval and young of year Pacific herring (Clupea pallasi) following the Exxon Valdez oil spill (EVOS) in Prince William Sound, Alaska. The model, in which median lethal times (LT50 values) are estimated from whole-body phototoxic PAH concentrations and ultraviolet A (UVA) exposure, was constructed from previously reported PAH phototoxicity data. The predictive value of this model was confirmed by the overlap of model-predicted and experimentally derived LT50 values. The model, along with UVA characterization data, was used to generate estimates for depths of de minimiz risk for PAH phototoxicity in young herring in 2003/2004 and immediately following the 1989 EVOS, assuming average and worst case conditions. Depths of de minimiz risk were estimated to be between 0 and 2 m deep when worst case UVA and PAH conditions were considered. A post hoc assessment determined that <1% of the young herring population would have been present at depths associated with significant risk of PAH phototoxicity in 2003/2004 and 1989.

  18. Quantitative microbial risk assessment of Cryptosporidium and Giardia in well water from a native community of Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balderrama-Carmona, Ana Paola; Gortáres-Moroyoqui, Pablo; Álvarez-Valencia, Luis Humberto; Castro-Espinoza, Luciano; Balderas-Cortés, José de Jesús; Mondaca-Fernández, Iram; Chaidez-Quiroz, Cristóbal; Meza-Montenegro, María Mercedes

    2015-01-01

    Cryptosporidium and Giardia are gastrointestinal disease-causing organisms transmitted by the fecal-oral route, zoonotic and prevalent in all socioeconomic segments with greater emphasis in rural communities. The goal of this study was to assess the risk of cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis of Potam dwellers consuming drinking water from communal well water. To achieve the goal, quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) was carried out as follows: (a) identification of Cryptosporidium oocysts and Giardia cysts in well water samples by information collection rule method, (b) assessment of exposure to healthy Potam residents, (c) dose-response modelling, and (d) risk characterization using an exponential model. All well water samples tested were positive for Cryptosporidium and Giardia. The QMRA results indicate a mean of annual risks of 99:100 (0.99) for cryptosporidiosis and 1:1 (1.0) for giardiasis. The outcome of the present study may drive decision-makers to establish an educational and treatment program to reduce the incidence of parasite-borne intestinal infection in the Potam community, and to conduct risk analysis programs in other similar rural communities in Mexico.

  19. Risk Factors for Chronic Subdural Hematoma Recurrence Identified Using Quantitative Computed Tomography Analysis of Hematoma Volume and Density.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stavrinou, Pantelis; Katsigiannis, Sotirios; Lee, Jong Hun; Hamisch, Christina; Krischek, Boris; Mpotsaris, Anastasios; Timmer, Marco; Goldbrunner, Roland

    2017-03-01

    Chronic subdural hematoma (CSDH), a common condition in elderly patients, presents a therapeutic challenge with recurrence rates of 33%. We aimed to identify specific prognostic factors for recurrence using quantitative analysis of hematoma volume and density. We retrospectively reviewed radiographic and clinical data of 227 CSDHs in 195 consecutive patients who underwent evacuation of the hematoma through a single burr hole, 2 burr holes, or a mini-craniotomy. To examine the relationship between hematoma recurrence and various clinical, radiologic, and surgical factors, we used quantitative image-based analysis to measure the hematoma and trapped air volumes and the hematoma densities. Recurrence of CSDH occurred in 35 patients (17.9%). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that the percentage of hematoma drained and postoperative CSDH density were independent risk factors for recurrence. All 3 evacuation methods were equally effective in draining the hematoma (71.7% vs. 73.7% vs. 71.9%) without observable differences in postoperative air volume captured in the subdural space. Quantitative image analysis provided evidence that percentage of hematoma drained and postoperative CSDH density are independent prognostic factors for subdural hematoma recurrence. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for Campylobacter Foodborne Illness in Raw Beef Offal Consumption in South Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeong, Jiyeon; Lee, Jeeyeon; Lee, Heeyoung; Lee, Soomin; Kim, Sejeong; Ha, Jimyeong; Yoon, Ki-Sun; Yoon, Yohan

    2017-04-01

    This study evaluated the risk of Campylobacter foodborne illness caused by the intake of raw beef offal in South Korea. The prevalence of Campylobacter spp. in raw beef offal (liver and tripe) was investigated by plating samples on modified charcoal-cefoperazone-deoxycholate agar with Preston enrichment broth. Data were collected about storage temperature and length of storage of raw beef offal, and probabilistic distributions for the data were determined, using @RISK software. Predictive models were developed to describe the fate of Campylobacter in raw beef offal, and the amount and frequency of consumption and dose-response model were surveyed. Subsequently, these data were used to estimate the risk of Campylobacter foodborne illness caused by the intake of raw beef offal. Of 80 beef offal samples, 1 (1.25%) was contaminated with Campylobacter jejuni . Predictive models were used for exposure assessment. An exponential distribution was selected to represent beef offal consumption by people who eat this occasionally, with a mean of 60.2 g and 3.6% monthly consumption frequency. Simulations using @RISK predicted that the probability of Campylobacter foodborne illness per person per month is 1.56 × 10 -5 for home consumption and 1.74 × 10 -5 for restaurant consumption in South Korea, which indicates the risk of Campylobacter foodborne illness by intake of raw beef offal in South Korea.

  1. Quantitative Estimation of Risks for Production Unit Based on OSHMS and Process Resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyambayar, D.; Koshijima, I.; Eguchi, H.

    2017-06-01

    Three principal elements in the production field of chemical/petrochemical industry are (i) Production Units, (ii) Production Plant Personnel and (iii) Production Support System (computer system introduced for improving productivity). Each principal element has production process resilience, i.e. a capability to restrain disruptive signals occurred in and out of the production field. In each principal element, risk assessment is indispensable for the production field. In a production facility, the occupational safety and health management system (Hereafter, referred to as OSHMS) has been introduced to reduce a risk of accidents and troubles that may occur during production. In OSHMS, a risk assessment is specified to reduce a potential risk in the production facility such as a factory, and PDCA activities are required for a continual improvement of safety production environments. However, there is no clear statement to adopt the OSHMS standard into the production field. This study introduces a metric to estimate the resilience of the production field by using the resilience generated by the production plant personnel and the result of the risk assessment in the production field. A method for evaluating how OSHMS functions are systematically installed in the production field is also discussed based on the resilience of the three principal elements.

  2. The understanding of risk factors for eating disorders in male adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akgül, Sinem; Akdemir, Devrim; Kara, Mahmut; Derman, Orhan; Çetin, Füsun Çuhadaroğlu; Kanbur, Nuray

    2016-02-01

    The study aimed to describe the medical, psychiatric, and cultural features of adolescent males with an eating disorder (ED). This retrospective evaluation took place at Hacettepe University, İhsan Doğramacı Children's Hospital, Ankara, Turkey, and covered a 4-year period between 2010 and 2013. Sixty adolescents were diagnosed with an ED during this period, 47 (78.3%) were females and 13 were males (21.7%) male. All 13 male patients who met full criteria for an ED according to the DSM criteria were included. Medical and psychiatric records of male patients treated for an ED were re-evaluated. The most striking finding of the study was that the female to male ratio became 3.6:1, with the increasing number of male adolescents with an ED. In our study, medical findings and complications of males with ED were similar to those seen in females. However, the most predominant gender difference was the co occurrence of a comorbid physical or mental illness. It is imperative to raise awareness of EDs in males. Although the medical findings of the study suggest that male and female adolescents with EDs are clinically similar to each other, the understanding of certain gender-specific risk factors shown in our study, such as a medical illness and/or obesity and co-morbid psychiatric diagnosis, are essential in raising suspicion. Further studies that especially evaluate cultural and social factors that affect parenting styles for boys are important in addessing possible risk factors for the development of EDs in males within different societies.

  3. Risks of Allergic Contact Dermatitis Elicited by Nickel, Chromium, and Organic Sensitizers: Quantitative Models Based on Clinical Patch Test Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogen, Kenneth T; Garry, Michael R

    2017-10-11

    Risks of allergic contact dermatitis (ACD) from consumer products intended for extended (nonpiercing) dermal contact are regulated by E.U. Directive EN 1811 that limits released Ni to a weekly equivalent dermal load of ≤0.5 μg/cm 2 . Similar approaches for thousands of known organic sensitizers are hampered by inability to quantify respective ACD-elicitation risk levels. To help address this gap, normalized values of cumulative risk for eliciting a positive ("≥+") clinical patch test response reported in 12 studies for a total of n = 625 Ni-sensitized patients were modeled in relation to observed ACD-eliciting Ni loads, yielding an approximate lognormal (LN) distribution with a geometric mean and standard deviation of GM Ni = 15 μg/cm 2 and GSD Ni = 8.0, respectively. Such data for five sensitizers (including formaldehyde and 2-hydroxyethyl methacrylate) were also ∼LN distributed, but with a common GSD value equal to GSD Ni and with heterogeneous sensitizer-specific GM values each defining a respective ACD-eliciting potency GM Ni /GM relative to Ni. Such potencies were also estimated for nine (meth)acrylates by applying this general LN ACD-elicitation risk model to respective sets of fewer data. ACD-elicitation risk patterns observed for Cr(VI) (n = 417) and Cr(III) (n = 78) were fit to mixed-LN models in which ∼30% and ∼40% of the most sensitive responders, respectively, were estimated to exhibit a LN response also governed by GSD Ni . The observed common LN-response shape parameter GSD Ni may reflect a common underlying ACD mechanism and suggests a common interim approach to quantitative ACD-elicitation risk assessment based on available clinical data. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  4. Quantitative assessment of the risk of introduction of bovine viral diarrhea virus in Danish dairy herds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Foddai, Alessandro; Boklund, Anette; Stockmarr, Anders

    2014-01-01

    of uncertainty due to lack of data. As suggested in the Agreementon the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (SPS Agreement), the OIE Ter-restrial Animal Health Code was followed for a transparent science-based risk assessment.Data from 2010 on imports of live cattle, semen, and embryos, exports...... trees were made to evaluate the importance of the various BVDV introductionroutes. With the current surveillance system, the risk of BVDV introduction was estimatedto one or more introductions within a median of nine years (3–59). However, if all importedanimals were tested and hoof trimmers always...

  5. Quantitative Proteomic (iTRAQ Analysis of 1st Trimester Maternal Plasma Samples in Pregnancies at Risk for Preeclampsia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Varaprasad Kolla

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available A current major obstacle is that no reliable screening markers exist to detect pregnancies at risk for preeclampsia. Quantitative proteomic analysis employing isobaric labelling (iTRAQ has been suggested to be suitable for the detection of potential plasma biomarkers, a feature we recently verified in analysis of pregnancies with Down syndrome foetuses. We have now examined whether this approach could yield biomarkers to screen pregnancies at risk for preeclampsia. In our study, we used maternal plasma samples obtained at 12 weeks of gestation, six from women who subsequently developed preeclampsia and six with uncomplicated deliveries. In our analysis, we observed elevations in 10 proteins out of 64 proteins in the preeclampsia study group when compared to the healthy control group. These proteins included clusterin, fibrinogen, fibronectin, and angiotensinogen, increased levels of which are known to be associated with preeclampsia. An elevation in the immune-modulatory molecule, galectin 3 binding protein, was also noted. Our pilot study, therefore, indicates that quantitative proteomic iTRAQ analysis could be a useful tool for the detection of new preeclampsia screening markers.

  6. Quantitative estimation of landslide risk from rapid debris slides on natural slopes in the Nilgiri hills, India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Jaiswal

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available A quantitative procedure for estimating landslide risk to life and property is presented and applied in a mountainous area in the Nilgiri hills of southern India. Risk is estimated for elements at risk located in both initiation zones and run-out paths of potential landslides. Loss of life is expressed as individual risk and as societal risk using F-N curves, whereas the direct loss of properties is expressed in monetary terms.

    An inventory of 1084 landslides was prepared from historical records available for the period between 1987 and 2009. A substantially complete inventory was obtained for landslides on cut slopes (1042 landslides, while for natural slopes information on only 42 landslides was available. Most landslides were shallow translational debris slides and debris flowslides triggered by rainfall. On natural slopes most landslides occurred as first-time failures.

    For landslide hazard assessment the following information was derived: (1 landslides on natural slopes grouped into three landslide magnitude classes, based on landslide volumes, (2 the number of future landslides on natural slopes, obtained by establishing a relationship between the number of landslides on natural slopes and cut slopes for different return periods using a Gumbel distribution model, (3 landslide susceptible zones, obtained using a logistic regression model, and (4 distribution of landslides in the susceptible zones, obtained from the model fitting performance (success rate curve. The run-out distance of landslides was assessed empirically using landslide volumes, and the vulnerability of elements at risk was subjectively assessed based on limited historic incidents.

    Direct specific risk was estimated individually for tea/coffee and horticulture plantations, transport infrastructures, buildings, and people both in initiation and run-out areas. Risks were calculated by considering the minimum, average, and maximum landslide volumes in

  7. Uncertainty in geohazard understanding and communicating hazards and risk between scientists and the UK Insurance industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawley, Russell; Lee, Kathryn; Lark, Murray

    2015-04-01

    At BGS, expert elicitation has been used to evaluate the relative impacts arising from multiple geohazards that can affect UK housing stock. In turn this 'consensus' understanding has been developed into a tool to assist the UK insurance industry underwrite the domestic property market. BGS models six geohazards deemed relevant to UK Housing: Landslides, Shrink-swell (heave), Compressibles, Dissolution (Karst), collapsibles and running sand. The models are widely used and have been developed over 2 decades of research. However, stakeholders such as the insurance industry are not well equipped to managed geohazard models directly and need the information to be categorised in a meaningful way, appropriate to their business models. Creating terminologies to communicate the relative threats for each geohazard has been relatively straightforward, but communicating the impacts of multiple geohazards, or comparing the relative risks of one geohazard against another has proved more difficult. Expert elicitation has been used since 2010 to try and build a consensus model for geohazards and to help BGS communicate its knowledge to stakeholders. Typically, the BGS geohazard models are provided with 5 levels of susceptibility: A (low or absent) ,B, C, D and E (high). Resolving individual models is relatively simple, but the insurance market is extremely dynamic and a need to simplify and convey the possible threats from all geohazards into a single 'rating' of susceptibility has emerged. This poses a problem when trying to convey the geological understanding behind the models. For example, how do you convey the combined (or comparative) susceptibility of a high susceptibility to Dissolution, with a moderate susceptibility to Landslides. This complexity is further hampered when needing to consider that stakeholders resolve spatial distributions via use of frameworks such as 'Postcode' sectors, and that the outputs of most geohazard models are sensitive to scope and scale of

  8. Development of a software for quantitative evaluation radiotherapy target and organ-at-risk segmentation comparison.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalpathy-Cramer, Jayashree; Awan, Musaddiq; Bedrick, Steven; Rasch, Coen R N; Rosenthal, David I; Fuller, Clifton D

    2014-02-01

    Modern radiotherapy requires accurate region of interest (ROI) inputs for plan optimization and delivery. Target delineation, however, remains operator-dependent and potentially serves as a major source of treatment delivery error. In order to optimize this critical, yet observer-driven process, a flexible web-based platform for individual and cooperative target delineation analysis and instruction was developed in order to meet the following unmet needs: (1) an open-source/open-access platform for automated/semiautomated quantitative interobserver and intraobserver ROI analysis and comparison, (2) a real-time interface for radiation oncology trainee online self-education in ROI definition, and (3) a source for pilot data to develop and validate quality metrics for institutional and cooperative group quality assurance efforts. The resultant software, Target Contour Testing/Instructional Computer Software (TaCTICS), developed using Ruby on Rails, has since been implemented and proven flexible, feasible, and useful in several distinct analytical and research applications.

  9. Quantitatively assessing the health risk of exposure to PAHs from intake of smoked meats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jiafu; Dong, Han; Li, Xianguo; Han, Bin; Zhu, Chenjian; Zhang, Dahai

    2016-02-01

    Smoked meat and meat products represent a significant part of the daily diet in south-west China and many other parts of the world. In this study, we evaluated the health risks of long-term exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in a daily low dose exposures (from intake of PAH-containing smoked meats) in south-west China for eight groups of people based on a Monte Carlo simulation. Total concentrations of PAHs in smoked meats from south-west China ranged from 14.4 to 56.3μgkg(-1). The 95th percentile carcinogenic risk (CR) values of eight groups in four cities and provinces were lower than the acceptable value (1.00E-5), indicating no significant risk. The 95th percentile Hazard Index (HI) values were below 1, suggesting no obvious non-carcinogenic effects developed. This study was the first attempt to provide information on the potential health risk for daily intake of PAH-containing smoked meat. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Quantitative risk management in gas injection project: a case study from Oman oil and gas industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khadem, Mohammad Miftaur Rahman Khan; Piya, Sujan; Shamsuzzoha, Ahm

    2017-09-01

    The purpose of this research was to study the recognition, application and quantification of the risks associated in managing projects. In this research, the management of risks in an oil and gas project is studied and implemented within a case company in Oman. In this study, at first, the qualitative data related to risks in the project were identified through field visits and extensive interviews. These data were then translated into numerical values based on the expert's opinion. Further, the numerical data were used as an input to Monte Carlo simulation. RiskyProject Professional™ software was used to simulate the system based on the identified risks. The simulation result predicted a delay of about 2 years as a worse case with no chance of meeting the project's on stream date. Also, it has predicted 8% chance of exceeding the total estimated budget. The result of numerical analysis from the proposed model is validated by comparing it with the result of qualitative analysis, which was obtained through discussion with various project managers of company.

  11. The Age-Specific Quantitative Effects of Metabolic Risk Factors on Cardiovascular Diseases and Diabetes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Singh, Gitanjali M; Danaei, Goodarz; Farzadfar, Farshad

    2013-01-01

    The effects of systolic blood pressure (SBP), serum total cholesterol (TC), fasting plasma glucose (FPG), and body mass index (BMI) on the risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) have been established in epidemiological studies, but consistent estimates of effect sizes by age and sex are not availa...

  12. Quantitative Adverse Outcome Pathways and their Utility to Ecological Risk Assessments of Endangered Species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ecological risk assessments of endangered species are often hampered by a lack of knowledge about the sensitivity of endangered species to chemicals of concern. However, traditional in vivo toxicity testing of endangered species is often not possible for practical and ethical rea...

  13. Impact of acquired immunity and dose-dependent probability of illness on quantitative microbial risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Havelaar, A. H.; Swart, A. N.

    2014-01-01

    Dose-response models in microbial risk assessment consider two steps in the process ultimately leading to illness: from exposure to (asymptomatic) infection, and from infection to (symptomatic) illness. Most data and theoretical approaches are available for the exposure-infection step; the

  14. Quantitative risk analysis of gas explosions in tunnels; probability, effects, and consequences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weerheijm, J.; Voort, M.M. van der; Verreault, J.; Berg, A.C. van den

    2015-01-01

    Tunnel accidents with transports of combustible liquefied gases may lead to explosions. Depending on the substance involved this can be a Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapour Explosion (BLEVE), a Gas Expansion Explosion (GEE) or a gas explosion. Quantification of the risk of these scenarios is important

  15. Understanding why low-risk patients accept vaccines: a socio-behavioral approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiemken, Timothy L; Carrico, Ruth M; Kelley, Robert R; Binford, Laura E; Peyrani, Paula; Ford, Kimbal D; Welch, Verna; Ramirez, Julio A

    2015-12-23

    Vaccines are one of the most important public health interventions. Understanding factors associated with vaccine acceptance is critical. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the impact of the three constructs of the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) on the intention to be vaccinated among healthy individuals being seen for pre-travel care, and to evaluate if behavioral intention was associated with vaccine acceptance. We surveyed individuals seeking vaccination at the University of Louisville Vaccine and International Health and Travel Clinic. Linear and two stage least squares regression models were used to define the associations between constructs of the TPB and the intention to be vaccinated, as well as the association between the intention to be vaccinated and vaccine acceptance. A total of 183 individuals were included in the analysis. None of the constructs of the TPB were associated with intention to be vaccinated. Behavioral intention was not associated with vaccination acceptance. This study suggests that the TPB does not predict the intention to get vaccinated among individuals attending our Vaccine and International Health and Travel Clinic. It will be critical to define better predictors of vaccine uptake in healthy, low-risk individuals to increase vaccine acceptance.

  16. Relationship between Added Sugars Consumption and Chronic Disease Risk Factors: Current Understanding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James M. Rippe

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Added sugars are a controversial and hotly debated topic. Consumption of added sugars has been implicated in increased risk of a variety of chronic diseases including obesity, cardiovascular disease, diabetes and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD as well as cognitive decline and even some cancers. Support for these putative associations has been challenged, however, on a variety of fronts. The purpose of the current review is to summarize high impact evidence including systematic reviews, meta-analyses, and randomized controlled trials (RCTs, in an attempt to provide an overview of current evidence related to added sugars and health considerations. This paper is an extension of a symposium held at the Experimental Biology 2015 conference entitled “Sweeteners and Health: Current Understandings, Controversies, Recent Research Findings and Directions for Future Research”. We conclude based on high quality evidence from randomized controlled trials (RCT, systematic reviews and meta-analyses of cohort studies that singling out added sugars as unique culprits for metabolically based diseases such as obesity, diabetes and cardiovascular disease appears inconsistent with modern, high quality evidence and is very unlikely to yield health benefits. While it is prudent to consume added sugars in moderation, the reduction of these components of the diet without other reductions of caloric sources seems unlikely to achieve any meaningful benefit.

  17. Relationship between Added Sugars Consumption and Chronic Disease Risk Factors: Current Understanding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rippe, James M; Angelopoulos, Theodore J

    2016-11-04

    Added sugars are a controversial and hotly debated topic. Consumption of added sugars has been implicated in increased risk of a variety of chronic diseases including obesity, cardiovascular disease, diabetes and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) as well as cognitive decline and even some cancers. Support for these putative associations has been challenged, however, on a variety of fronts. The purpose of the current review is to summarize high impact evidence including systematic reviews, meta-analyses, and randomized controlled trials (RCTs), in an attempt to provide an overview of current evidence related to added sugars and health considerations. This paper is an extension of a symposium held at the Experimental Biology 2015 conference entitled "Sweeteners and Health: Current Understandings, Controversies, Recent Research Findings and Directions for Future Research". We conclude based on high quality evidence from randomized controlled trials (RCT), systematic reviews and meta-analyses of cohort studies that singling out added sugars as unique culprits for metabolically based diseases such as obesity, diabetes and cardiovascular disease appears inconsistent with modern, high quality evidence and is very unlikely to yield health benefits. While it is prudent to consume added sugars in moderation, the reduction of these components of the diet without other reductions of caloric sources seems unlikely to achieve any meaningful benefit.

  18. Crystalline silica exposure and lung cancer mortality in diatomaceous earth industry workers: a quantitative risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rice, F L; Park, R; Stayner, L; Smith, R; Gilbert, S; Checkoway, H

    2001-01-01

    To use various exposure-response models to estimate the risk of mortality from lung cancer due to occupational exposure to respirable crystalline silica dust. Data from a cohort mortality study of 2342 white male California diatomaceous earth mining and processing workers exposed to crystalline silica dust (mainly cristobalite) were reanalyzed with Poisson regression and Cox's proportional hazards models. Internal and external adjustments were used to control for potential confounding from the effects of time since first observation, calendar time, age, and Hispanic ethnicity. Cubic smoothing spline models were used to assess the fit of the models. Exposures were lagged by 10 years. Evaluations of the fit of the models were performed by comparing their deviances. Lifetime risks of lung cancer were estimated up to age 85 with an actuarial approach that accounted for competing causes of death. Exposure to respirable crystalline silica dust was a significant predictor (p<0.05) in nearly all of the models evaluated and the linear relative rate model with a 10 year exposure lag seemed to give the best fit in the Poisson regression analysis. For those who died of lung cancer the linear relative rate model predicted rate ratios for mortality from lung cancer of about 1.6 for the mean cumulative exposure to respirable silica compared with no exposure. The excess lifetime risk (to age 85) of mortality from lung cancer for white men exposed for 45 years and with a 10 year lag period at the current Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) standard of about 0.05 mg/m(3) for respirable cristobalite dust is 19/1000 (95% confidence interval (95% CI) 5/1000 to 46/1000). There was a significant risk of mortality from lung cancer that increased with cumulative exposure to respirable crystalline silica dust. The predicted number of deaths from lung cancer suggests that current occupational health standards may not be adequately protecting workers from the risk of lung

  19. Quantitative risk assessment integrated with process simulator for a new technology of methanol production plant using recycled CO₂.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Domenico, Julia; Vaz, Carlos André; de Souza, Maurício Bezerra

    2014-06-15

    The use of process simulators can contribute with quantitative risk assessment (QRA) by minimizing expert time and large volume of data, being mandatory in the case of a future plant. This work illustrates the advantages of this association by integrating UNISIM DESIGN simulation and QRA to investigate the acceptability of a new technology of a Methanol Production Plant in a region. The simulated process was based on the hydrogenation of chemically sequestered carbon dioxide, demanding stringent operational conditions (high pressures and temperatures) and involving the production of hazardous materials. The estimation of the consequences was performed using the PHAST software, version 6.51. QRA results were expressed in terms of individual and social risks. Compared to existing tolerance levels, the risks were considered tolerable in nominal conditions of operation of the plant. The use of the simulator in association with the QRA also allowed testing the risk in new operating conditions in order to delimit safe regions for the plant. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Quantitative risk-benefit analysis of fish consumption for women of child-bearing age in Hong Kong.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, M Y Y; Wong, W W K; Chung, S W C; Tran, C H; Chan, B T P; Ho, Y Y; Xiao, Y

    2014-01-01

    Maternal fish consumption is associated with both risks from methylmercury (MeHg) and beneficial effects from omega-3 fatty acids to the developing foetal brain. This paper assessed the dietary exposure to MeHg of women of child-bearing age (20-49 years) in Hong Kong, and conducted risk-benefit analysis in terms of the effects in children's intelligent quotient (IQ) based on local data and the quantitative method derived by the expert consultation of FAO/WHO. Results showed that average and high consumers consume 450 and 1500 g of fish (including seafood) per week, respectively. About 11% of women of child-bearing age had a dietary exposure to MeHg exceeding the PTWI of 1.6 µg kg(-1) bw. In pregnant women MeHg intake may pose health risks to the developing foetuses. For average consumers, eating any of the 19 types of the most commonly consumed fish and seafood during pregnancy would result in 0.79-5.7 IQ points gain by their children. For high consumers, if they only ate tuna during pregnancy, it would cause 2.3 IQ points reduction in their children. The results indicated that for pregnant women the benefit outweighed the risk associated with eating fish if they consume different varieties of fish in moderation.

  1. Quantitative risk assessment of the introduction of rabies into Japan through the importation of dogs and cats worldwide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwan, N C L; Sugiura, K; Hosoi, Y; Yamada, A; Snary, E L

    2017-04-01

    Japan has been free from rabies since 1958. A strict import regimen has been adopted since 2004 consisting of identification of an animal with microchip, two-time rabies vaccination, neutralizing antibody titration test and a waiting period of 180 days. The present study aims to quantitatively assess the risk of rabies introduction into Japan through the international importation of dogs and cats and hence provide evidence-based recommendations to strengthen the current rabies prevention system. A stochastic scenario tree model was developed and simulations were run using @RISK. The probability of infection in a single dog or cat imported into Japan is estimated to be 2·16 × 10-9 [90% prediction interval (PI) 6·65 × 10-11-6·48 × 10-9]. The number of years until the introduction of a rabies case is estimated to be 49 444 (90% PI 19 170-94 641) years. The current import regimen is effective in maintaining the very low risk of rabies introduction into Japan and responding to future changes including increases in import level and rabies prevalence in the world. However, non-compliance or smuggling activities could substantially increase the risk of rabies introduction. Therefore, policy amendment which could promote compliance is highly recommended. Scenario analysis demonstrated that the waiting period could be reduced to 90 days and the requirement for vaccination could be reduced to a single vaccination, but serological testing should not be stopped.

  2. Quantitative Risk Assessment of Patient Manual Handling in Wards of One of the Hospitals of Tehran using MAPO Method, Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sajad Ataei

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Background and Objectives: Manual handling of disabled patients is one of the important and effective factors in acute low back pain among exposed nurses. The present study was conducted with the objective of quantitative risk assessment of patient manual handling among nurses in wards of one of the hospitals in Tehran using MAPO method. Methods: The present study was conducted as an analytical-cross-sectional study in 26 wards of one of the hospitals in Tehran city. Samples were selected by census method from nurses and paramedics of different wards of hospital. Data collection was performed using demographic information and MAPO checklist. Results: The highest score of MAPO were, respectively, related to wards of DI clinic (score, 14.7, men orthopedic (score, 6.3, and general operating room (score, 57. 53.8% of hospital wards were at the level 2 corrective action, which indicated that the risk of musculoskeletal disorder is 2.4 times higher than level 1 corrective action. Conclusion: Given that the proportion of disabled patient in cooperation and/or partial cooperation, lifting tools, auxiliary, wheelchair, and training have the most role among risk factors for above-mentioned wards, increasing the number of human resources and wheelchair, use of lifting and auxiliary tools and training reduce MAPO score and consequently the risk of musculoskeletal disorders.

  3. Understanding self-appraisal of HIV-infection risk among young ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A major component of HIV prevention is to encourage individuals to appreciate their personal risk of contracting the virus with the aim of encouraging them to take steps to reduce the risks. This article addresses the accuracy of an individual's risk assessment by matching this with individual's reported risk behaviours in order ...

  4. Widening the understanding of risk approaches by comparing definitions from different disciplines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berg-Beckhoff, Gabriele; Wiedemann, Peter; Adam, Balazs

    2017-01-01

    The aim of this chapter is to critically reflect definitions of hazard, risk, and risk per-ception, and their assessments used in different scientific disciplines and give ex-amples of the potential implications for scientific discussions, knowledge manage-ment, and risk communication. Scientists...... with backgrounds in public health, psy-chology, environmental health, occupational health, engineering, sociology and medicine were asked for a definition of hazard, risk, risk assessment and risk per-ception seen from their specific scientific disciplines. Hazard is generally seen as an adverse event or condition....... For most risk definitions, probability and severity are important aspects. Often a quantification of risk is desired, whereas risk perception is seen as a subjective appraisal and a cognitive construct. As risk perceptions are based on a combination of knowledge and individual values and affects, it may...

  5. Quantitative risk assessment of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in finfish: a model of raw horse mackerel consumption in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iwahori, Jun'ichiro; Yamamoto, Akio; Suzuki, Hodaka; Yamamoto, Takehisa; Tsutsui, Toshiyuki; Motoyama, Keiko; Sawada, Mikiko; Matsushita, Tomoki; Hasegawa, Atsushi; Osaka, Ken; Toyofuku, Hajime; Kasuga, Fumiko

    2010-12-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of implemented control measures to reduce illness induced by Vibrio parahaemolyticus (V. parahaemolyticus) in horse mackerel (Trachurus japonicus), seafood that is commonly consumed raw in Japan. On the basis of currently available experimental and survey data, we constructed a quantitative risk model of V. parahaemolyticus in horse mackerel from harvest to consumption. In particular, the following factors were evaluated: bacterial growth at all stages, effects of washing the fish body and storage water, and bacterial transfer from the fish surface, gills, and intestine to fillets during preparation. New parameters of the beta-Poisson dose-response model were determined from all human feeding trials, some of which have been used for risk assessment by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (USFDA). The probability of illness caused by V. parahaemolyticus was estimated using both the USFDA dose-response parameters and our parameters for each selected pathway of scenario alternatives: washing whole fish at landing, storage in contaminated water, high temperature during transportation, and washing fish during preparation. The last scenario (washing fish during preparation) was the most effective for reducing the risk of illness by about a factor of 10 compared to no washing at this stage. Risk of illness increased by 50% by exposure to increased temperature during transportation, according to our assumptions of duration and temperature. The other two scenarios did not significantly affect risk. The choice of dose-response parameters was not critical for evaluation of control measures. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

  6. A suite of models to support the quantitative assessment of spread in pest risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinet, Christelle; Kehlenbeck, Hella; Kriticos, Darren J; Baker, Richard H A; Battisti, Andrea; Brunel, Sarah; Dupin, Maxime; Eyre, Dominic; Faccoli, Massimo; Ilieva, Zhenya; Kenis, Marc; Knight, Jon; Reynaud, Philippe; Yart, Annie; van der Werf, Wopke

    2012-01-01

    Pest Risk Analyses (PRAs) are conducted worldwide to decide whether and how exotic plant pests should be regulated to prevent invasion. There is an increasing demand for science-based risk mapping in PRA. Spread plays a key role in determining the potential distribution of pests, but there is no suitable spread modelling tool available for pest risk analysts. Existing models are species specific, biologically and technically complex, and data hungry. Here we present a set of four simple and generic spread models that can be parameterised with limited data. Simulations with these models generate maps of the potential expansion of an invasive species at continental scale. The models have one to three biological parameters. They differ in whether they treat spatial processes implicitly or explicitly, and in whether they consider pest density or pest presence/absence only. The four models represent four complementary perspectives on the process of invasion and, because they have different initial conditions, they can be considered as alternative scenarios. All models take into account habitat distribution and climate. We present an application of each of the four models to the western corn rootworm, Diabrotica virgifera virgifera, using historic data on its spread in Europe. Further tests as proof of concept were conducted with a broad range of taxa (insects, nematodes, plants, and plant pathogens). Pest risk analysts, the intended model users, found the model outputs to be generally credible and useful. The estimation of parameters from data requires insights into population dynamics theory, and this requires guidance. If used appropriately, these generic spread models provide a transparent and objective tool for evaluating the potential spread of pests in PRAs. Further work is needed to validate models, build familiarity in the user community and create a database of species parameters to help realize their potential in PRA practice.

  7. Quantitative falls risk assessment using the timed up and go test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greene, Barry R; O'Donovan, Alan; Romero-Ortuno, Roman; Cogan, Lisa; Scanaill, Cliodhna Ni; Kenny, Rose A

    2010-12-01

    Falls are a major problem in older adults worldwide with an estimated 30% of elderly adults over 65 years of age falling each year. The direct and indirect societal costs associated with falls are enormous. A system that could provide an accurate automated assessment of falls risk prior to falling would allow timely intervention and ease the burden on overstretched healthcare systems worldwide. An objective method for assessing falls risk using body-worn kinematic sensors is reported. The gait and balance of 349 community-dwelling elderly adults was assessed using body-worn sensors while each patient performed the "timed up and go" (TUG) test. Patients were also evaluated using the Berg balance scale (BBS). Of the 44 reported parameters derived from body-worn kinematic sensors, 29 provided significant discrimination between patients with a history of falls and those without. Cross-validated estimates of retrospective falls prediction performance using logistic regression models yielded a mean sensitivity of 77.3% and a mean specificity of 75.9%. This compares favorably to the cross-validated performance of logistic regression models based on the time taken to complete the TUG test (manually timed TUG) and the Berg balance score. These models yielded mean sensitivities of 58.0% and 57.8%, respectively, and mean specificities of 64.8% and 64.2%, respectively. Results suggest that this method offers an improvement over two standard falls risk assessments (TUG and BBS) and may have potential for use in supervised assessment of falls risk as part of a longitudinal monitoring protocol.

  8. A suite of models to support the quantitative assessment of spread in pest risk analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christelle Robinet

    Full Text Available Pest Risk Analyses (PRAs are conducted worldwide to decide whether and how exotic plant pests should be regulated to prevent invasion. There is an increasing demand for science-based risk mapping in PRA. Spread plays a key role in determining the potential distribution of pests, but there is no suitable spread modelling tool available for pest risk analysts. Existing models are species specific, biologically and technically complex, and data hungry. Here we present a set of four simple and generic spread models that can be parameterised with limited data. Simulations with these models generate maps of the potential expansion of an invasive species at continental scale. The models have one to three biological parameters. They differ in whether they treat spatial processes implicitly or explicitly, and in whether they consider pest density or pest presence/absence only. The four models represent four complementary perspectives on the process of invasion and, because they have different initial conditions, they can be considered as alternative scenarios. All models take into account habitat distribution and climate. We present an application of each of the four models to the western corn rootworm, Diabrotica virgifera virgifera, using historic data on its spread in Europe. Further tests as proof of concept were conducted with a broad range of taxa (insects, nematodes, plants, and plant pathogens. Pest risk analysts, the intended model users, found the model outputs to be generally credible and useful. The estimation of parameters from data requires insights into population dynamics theory, and this requires guidance. If used appropriately, these generic spread models provide a transparent and objective tool for evaluating the potential spread of pests in PRAs. Further work is needed to validate models, build familiarity in the user community and create a database of species parameters to help realize their potential in PRA practice.

  9. Hormone Replacement Therapy and Risk of Breast Cancer in Korean Women: A Quantitative Systematic Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jong-Myon Bae

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: The epidemiological characteristics of breast cancer incidence by age group in Korean women are unique. This systematic review aimed to investigate the association between hormone replacement therapy (HRT and breast cancer risk in Korean women. Methods: We searched electronic databases such as KoreaMed, KMbase, KISS, and RISS4U as well as PubMed for publications on Korean breast cancer patients. We also conducted manual searching based on references and citations in potential papers. All of the analytically epidemiologic studies that obtained individual data on HRT exposure and breast cancer occurrence in Korean women were selected. We restricted the inclusion of case-control studies to those that included age-matched controls. Estimates of summary odds ratio (SOR with 95% confidence intervals (CIs were calculated using random effect models. Results: One cohort and five case-control studies were finally selected. Based on the heterogeneity that existed among the six studies (I-squared=70.2%, a random effect model was applied. The summary effect size of HRT history from the six articles indicated no statistical significance in breast cancer risk (SOR, 0.983; 95% CI, 0.620 to 1.556. Conclusions: These facts support no significant effect of HRT history in the risk of breast cancer in Korean women. It is necessary to conduct a pooled analysis.

  10. Quantitative modeling for risk assessment of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in bloody clams in southern Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamamoto, Akio; Iwahori, Jun'ichiro; Vuddhakul, Varaporn; Charernjiratragul, Wilawan; Vose, David; Osaka, Ken; Shigematsu, Mika; Toyofuku, Hajime; Yamamoto, Shigeki; Nishibuchi, Mitsuaki; Kasuga, Fumiko

    2008-05-10

    A risk assessment of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in bloody clams (Anadara granosa) consumed in southern Thailand was conducted. This study estimated the prevalence and concentration of pathogenic V. parahaemolyticus in bloody clams at harvest and retail stages; and during this process, methods to detect the total and pathogenic V. parahaemolyticus were investigated. Consumption of bloody clams and cooking efficiency were studied using interviews and on-site observation of consumers. A beta-Poisson dose-response model was used to estimate probability of illness applying estimation methods for the most likely parameter values presented by USFDA. Microbial and behavioral data were analyzed by developing a stochastic model and the simulation gave a mean number of times a person would get ill with V. parahaemolyticus by consuming bloody clams at 5.6 x 10(-4)/person/year. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated the fraction of people who did not boil the clams properly was the primary factor in increasing risk. This study serves as an example of how a microbiological risk assessment with limited data collection and international cooperation leads to valuable local insight.

  11. Towards a more accurate quantitative assessment of seasonal Cryptosporidium infection risks in surface waters using species and genotype information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lapen, D R; Schmidt, P J; Thomas, J L; Edge, T A; Flemming, C; Keithlin, J; Neumann, N; Pollari, F; Ruecker, N; Simhon, A; Topp, E; Wilkes, G; Pintar, K D M

    2016-11-15

    Many Cryptosporidium species/genotypes are not considered infectious to humans, and more realistic estimations of seasonal infection risks could be made using human infectious species/genotype information to inform quantitative microbial risk assessments (QMRA). Cryptosporidium oocyst concentration and species/genotype data were collected from three surface water surveillance programs in two river basins [South Nation River, SN (2004-09) and Grand River, GR (2005-13)] in Ontario, Canada to evaluate seasonal infection risks. Main river stems, tributaries, agricultural drainage streams, water treatment plant intakes, and waste water treatment plant effluent impacted sites were sampled. The QMRA employed two sets of exposure data to compute risk: one assuming all observed oocysts were infectious to humans, and the other based on the fraction of oocysts that were C. hominis and/or C. parvum (dominant human infectious forms of the parasite). Viability was not considered and relative infection risk was evaluated using a single hypothetical recreational exposure. Many sample site groupings for both river systems, had significant seasonality in Cryptosporidium occurrence and concentrations (p ≤ 0.05); occurrence and concentrations were generally highest in autumn for SN, and autumn and summer for GR. Mean risk values (probability of infection per exposure) for all sites combined, for each river system, were roughly an order of magnitude lower (avg. of SN and GR 5.3 × 10 -5 ) when considering just C. parvum and C. hominis oocysts, in relation to mean infection risk (per exposure) assuming all oocysts were infectious to humans (5.5 × 10 -4 ). Seasonality in mean risk (targeted human infectious oocysts only) was most strongly evident in SN (e.g., 7.9 × 10 -6 in spring and 8.1 × 10 -5 in summer). Such differences are important if QMRA is used to quantify effects of water safety/quality management practices where inputs from a vast array of fecal pollution

  12. Quantitative muscle hardness as a noninvasive means for detecting patients at risk of compartment syndromes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steinberg, Bruce; Riel, Ryan; Armitage, Marshal; Berrey, Hudson

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this project was to study the efficacy of quantitative muscle hardness (QH) curve analysis for noninvasive measurement of muscle compartment interstitial pressure (IMP), and to eliminate the need for a comparison normal QH measurement to determine a pathologic reading. Elevation of IMP may lead to limb compartment syndrome, which may result in irreversible dysfunction, chronic pain and contracture. Two studies were performed by two separate independent examiners on male volunteers, where IMP measurements and QH curves were obtained. QH curves were divided into three parts comparing the third part to the second part using the coefficient of determination (R 2 ). In 205 limb compartments, there were 1432 comparison readings of the IMP versus R 2 . Using receiver operator characteristic curve analysis for all data from both studies, an R 2 cutoff of 0.974 best corresponded to a pathologic IMP of 50 mmHg. For both sets of data and for each compartment tested, the mean IMP values were statistically different (t-test: P < 0.0001) for the group with R 2 values less than 0.974 compared to the group of R 2 values greater than or equal to 0.974. In addition, a pressure prediction model was formulated with a strong overall correlation coefficient of 0.78. The data of this study support that QH analysis is potentially useful for the monitoring of IMP elevation in compartment syndrome

  13. Currency risk and prices of oil and petroleum products: a simulation with a quantitative model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aniasi, L.; Ottavi, D.; Rubino, E.; Saracino, A.

    1992-01-01

    This paper analyzes the relationship between the exchange rates of the US Dollar against the four major European currencies and the prices of oil and its main products in those countries. In fact, the sensitivity of the prices to the exchange rate movements is of fundamental importance for the refining and distribution industries of importing countries. The result of the analysis shows that in neither free market conditions, as those present in Great Britain, France and Germany, nor in regulated markets, i.e. the italian one, do the variations of petroleum product prices fully absorb the variation of the exchange rates. In order to assess the above relationship, we first tested the order of co-integration of the time series of exchange rates of EMS currencies with those of international prices of oil and its derivative products; then we used a transfer-function model to reproduce the quantitative relationships between those variables. Using these results, we then reproduced domestic price functions with partial adjustment mechanisms. Finally, we used the above model to run a simulation of the deviation from the steady-state pattern caused by exchange-rate exogenous shocks. 21 refs., 5 figs., 3 tabs

  14. Quantitative ultrasound does not identify patients with an inflammatory disease at risk of vertebral deformities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Geusens Piet

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Previous studies from our group have shown that a high prevalence of vertebral deformities suggestive of fracture can be found in patients with an inflammatory disease, despite a near normal bone mineral density (BMD. As quantitative ultrasound (QUS of the heel can be used for refined assessment of bone strength, we evaluated whether QUS can be used to identify subjects with an inflammatory disease with an increased chance of having a vertebral fracture. Methods 246 patients (mean age: 44 ± 12.4 years with an inflammatory disease (sarcoidosis or inflammatory bowel disease (IBD were studied. QUS of the heel and BMD of the hip (by dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA were measured. Furthermore lateral single energy densitometry of the spine for assessment of vertebral deformities was done. Logistic regression analysis was performed to assess the strength of association between the prevalence of a vertebral deformity and BMD and QUS parameters, adjusted for gender and age. Results Vertebral deformities (ratio of Conclusion Our findings imply that QUS measurements of the calcaneus in patients with an inflammatory condition, such as sarcoidosis and IBD, are likely of limited value to identify patients with a vertebral fracture.

  15. Which risk understandings can be derived from the current disharmonized regulation of complementary and alternative medicine in Europe?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiesener, Solveig; Salamonsen, Anita; Fønnebø, Vinjar

    2018-01-10

    Many European citizens are seeking complementary and alternative medicine (CAM). These treatments are regulated very differently in the EU/EFTA countries. This may demonstrate differences in how risk associated with the use of CAM is perceived. Since most CAM treatments are practiced fairly similarly across Europe, differing risk understandings may influence patient safety for European CAM users. The overall aim of this article is thus to contribute to an overview and awareness of possible differing risk understandings in the field of CAM at a policymaking/structural level in Europe. The study is a re-analysis of data collected in the CAMbrella EU FP7 document and interview study on the regulation of CAM in 39 European countries. The 12 CAM modalities included in the CAMbrella study were ranked with regard to assumed risk potential depending on the number of countries limiting its practice to regulated professions. The 39 countries were ranked according to how many of the included CAM modalities they limit to be practiced by regulated professions. Twelve of 39 countries generally understand the included CAM treatments to represent "high risk", 20 countries "low risk", while the remaining 7 countries understand CAM treatments as carrying "very little or no risk". The CAM modalities seen as carrying a risk high enough to warrant professional regulation in the highest number of countries are chiropractic, acupuncture, massage, homeopathy and osteopathy. The countries understanding most of the CAM modalities in the study as potentially high-risk treatments are with two exceptions (Portugal and Belgium) all concentrated in the southeastern region of Europe. The variation in regulation of CAM may represent a substantial lack of common risk understandings between health policymakers in Europe. We think the discrepancies in regulation are to a considerable degree also based on factors unrelated to patient risk. We argue that it is important for patient safety that policy

  16. Human-Associated Fecal Quantitative Polymerase Chain ReactionMeasurements and Simulated Risk of Gastrointestinal Illness in Recreational Waters Contaminated with Raw Sewage

    Science.gov (United States)

    We used quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) to estimate the risk of gastrointestinal (GI) illness associated with swimming in recreational waters containing different concentrations of human-associated fecal qPCR markers from raw sewage– HF183 and HumM2. The volume/volu...

  17. Comparison of Monte Carlo and fuzzy math simulation methods for quantitative microbial risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidson, Valerie J; Ryks, Joanne

    2003-10-01

    The objective of food safety risk assessment is to quantify levels of risk for consumers as well as to design improved processing, distribution, and preparation systems that reduce exposure to acceptable limits. Monte Carlo simulation tools have been used to deal with the inherent variability in food systems, but these tools require substantial data for estimates of probability distributions. The objective of this study was to evaluate the use of fuzzy values to represent uncertainty. Fuzzy mathematics and Monte Carlo simulations were compared to analyze the propagation of uncertainty through a number of sequential calculations in two different applications: estimation of biological impacts and economic cost in a general framework and survival of Campylobacter jejuni in a sequence of five poultry processing operations. Estimates of the proportion of a population requiring hospitalization were comparable, but using fuzzy values and interval arithmetic resulted in more conservative estimates of mortality and cost, in terms of the intervals of possible values and mean values, compared to Monte Carlo calculations. In the second application, the two approaches predicted the same reduction in mean concentration (-4 log CFU/ ml of rinse), but the limits of the final concentration distribution were wider for the fuzzy estimate (-3.3 to 5.6 log CFU/ml of rinse) compared to the probability estimate (-2.2 to 4.3 log CFU/ml of rinse). Interval arithmetic with fuzzy values considered all possible combinations in calculations and maximum membership grade for each possible result. Consequently, fuzzy results fully included distributions estimated by Monte Carlo simulations but extended to broader limits. When limited data defines probability distributions for all inputs, fuzzy mathematics is a more conservative approach for risk assessment than Monte Carlo simulations.

  18. A Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment for Salmonella in Pigs for the European Union

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Snary, Emma L.; Swart, Arno N.; Simons, Robin R. L.

    2016-01-01

    practices, and consumption patterns. To demonstrate the parameterization of the model, four case study MSs were selected that illustrate the variability in production of pork meat and products across MSs. For the case study MSs the average probability of illness was estimated to be between 1 in 100......,000 and 1 in 10 million servings given consumption of one of the three product types considered (pork cuts, minced meat, and fermented ready‐to‐eat sausages). Further analyses of the farm‐to‐consumption QMRA suggest that the vast majority of human risk derives from infected pigs with a high concentration...

  19. Caramel color in soft drinks and exposure to 4-methylimidazole: a quantitative risk assessment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tyler J S Smith

    Full Text Available Caramel color is added to many widely-consumed beverages as a colorant. Consumers of these beverages can be exposed to 4-methylimidazole (4-MEI, a potential carcinogen formed during its manufacture. California's Proposition 65 law requires that beverages containing 4-MEI concentrations corresponding to exposures that pose excess cancer risks > 1 case per 100,000 exposed persons (29 μg 4-MEI/day carry warning labels. Using ultrahigh-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry, we assessed 4-MEI concentrations in 12 beverages purchased in California and a geographically distant metropolitan area (New York in which warning labels are not required. In addition, we characterized beverage consumption by age and race/ethnicity (using weighted means calculated from logistic regressions and assessed 4-MEI exposure and resulting cancer risks and US population cancer burdens attributable to beverage consumption. Data on beverage consumption were obtained from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, dose-response data for 4-MEI were obtained from the California Environmental Protection Agency Office of Environmental Health Hazards Assessment, and data on population characteristics were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau. Of the 12 beverages, Malta Goya had the highest 4-MEI concentration (915.8 to 963.3μg/L, lifetime average daily dose (LADD - 8.04x10-3 mg/kgBW-day, lifetime excess cancer risk (1.93x10-4 and burden (5,011 cancer cases in the U.S. population over 70 years; Coca-Cola had the lowest value of each (4-MEI: 9.5 to 11.7μg/L; LADD: 1.01x10-4 mg/kgBW-day; risk: 1.92x10-6; and burden: 76 cases. 4-MEI concentrations varied considerably by soda and state/area of purchase, but were generally consistent across lots of the same beverage purchased in the same state/area. Routine consumption of certain beverages can result in 4-MEI exposures > 29 μg/day. State regulatory standards appear to have been effective in reducing

  20. Caramel color in soft drinks and exposure to 4-methylimidazole: a quantitative risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Tyler J S; Wolfson, Julia A; Jiao, Ding; Crupain, Michael J; Rangan, Urvashi; Sapkota, Amir; Bleich, Sara N; Nachman, Keeve E

    2015-01-01

    Caramel color is added to many widely-consumed beverages as a colorant. Consumers of these beverages can be exposed to 4-methylimidazole (4-MEI), a potential carcinogen formed during its manufacture. California's Proposition 65 law requires that beverages containing 4-MEI concentrations corresponding to exposures that pose excess cancer risks > 1 case per 100,000 exposed persons (29 μg 4-MEI/day) carry warning labels. Using ultrahigh-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry, we assessed 4-MEI concentrations in 12 beverages purchased in California and a geographically distant metropolitan area (New York) in which warning labels are not required. In addition, we characterized beverage consumption by age and race/ethnicity (using weighted means calculated from logistic regressions) and assessed 4-MEI exposure and resulting cancer risks and US population cancer burdens attributable to beverage consumption. Data on beverage consumption were obtained from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, dose-response data for 4-MEI were obtained from the California Environmental Protection Agency Office of Environmental Health Hazards Assessment, and data on population characteristics were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau. Of the 12 beverages, Malta Goya had the highest 4-MEI concentration (915.8 to 963.3μg/L), lifetime average daily dose (LADD - 8.04x10-3 mg/kgBW-day), lifetime excess cancer risk (1.93x10-4) and burden (5,011 cancer cases in the U.S. population over 70 years); Coca-Cola had the lowest value of each (4-MEI: 9.5 to 11.7μg/L; LADD: 1.01x10-4 mg/kgBW-day; risk: 1.92x10-6; and burden: 76 cases). 4-MEI concentrations varied considerably by soda and state/area of purchase, but were generally consistent across lots of the same beverage purchased in the same state/area. Routine consumption of certain beverages can result in 4-MEI exposures > 29 μg/day. State regulatory standards appear to have been effective in reducing exposure to

  1. Space Shuttle Main Engine Quantitative Risk Assessment: Illustrating Modeling of a Complex System with a New QRA Software Package

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smart, Christian

    1998-01-01

    During 1997, a team from Hernandez Engineering, MSFC, Rocketdyne, Thiokol, Pratt & Whitney, and USBI completed the first phase of a two year Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of the Space Shuttle. The models for the Shuttle systems were entered and analyzed by a new QRA software package. This system, termed the Quantitative Risk Assessment System(QRAS), was designed by NASA and programmed by the University of Maryland. The software is a groundbreaking PC-based risk assessment package that allows the user to model complex systems in a hierarchical fashion. Features of the software include the ability to easily select quantifications of failure modes, draw Event Sequence Diagrams(ESDs) interactively, perform uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, and document the modeling. This paper illustrates both the approach used in modeling and the particular features of the software package. The software is general and can be used in a QRA of any complex engineered system. The author is the project lead for the modeling of the Space Shuttle Main Engines (SSMEs), and this paper focuses on the modeling completed for the SSMEs during 1997. In particular, the groundrules for the study, the databases used, the way in which ESDs were used to model catastrophic failure of the SSMES, the methods used to quantify the failure rates, and how QRAS was used in the modeling effort are discussed. Groundrules were necessary to limit the scope of such a complex study, especially with regard to a liquid rocket engine such as the SSME, which can be shut down after ignition either on the pad or in flight. The SSME was divided into its constituent components and subsystems. These were ranked on the basis of the possibility of being upgraded and risk of catastrophic failure. Once this was done the Shuttle program Hazard Analysis and Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) were used to create a list of potential failure modes to be modeled. The groundrules and other criteria were used to screen

  2. Farm to Fork Quantitative Risk Assessment of Listeria monocytogenes Contamination in Raw and Pasteurized Milk Cheese in Ireland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tiwari, Uma; Cummins, Enda; Valero, Antonio; Walsh, Des; Dalmasso, Marion; Jordan, Kieran; Duffy, Geraldine

    2015-06-01

    The objective of this study was to model and quantify the level of Listeria monocytogenes in raw milk cheese (RMc) and pasteurized milk cheese (PMc) from farm to fork using a Bayesian inference approach combined with a quantitative risk assessment. The modeling approach included a prediction of contamination arising from the farm environment as well from cross-contamination within the cheese-processing facility through storage and subsequent human exposure. The model predicted a high concentration of L. monocytogenes in contaminated RMc (mean 2.19 log10 CFU/g) compared to PMc (mean -1.73 log10 CFU/g). The mean probability of illness (P1 for low-risk population, LR) and (P2 for high-risk population, HR, e.g., immunocompromised) adult Irish consumers following exposure to contaminated cheese was 7 × 10(-8) (P1 ) and 9 × 10(-4) (P2 ) for RMc and 7 × 10(-10) (P1 ) and 8 × 10(-6) (P2 ) for PMc, respectively. In addition, the model was used to evaluate performance objectives at various stages, namely, the cheese making and ripening stages, and to set a food safety objective at the time of consumption. A scenario analysis predicted various probabilities of L. monocytogenes contamination along the cheese-processing chain for both RMc and PMc. The sensitivity analysis showed the critical factors for both cheeses were the serving size of the cheese, storage time, and temperature at the distribution stage. The developed model will allow food processors and policymakers to identify the possible routes of contamination along the cheese-processing chain and to reduce the risk posed to human health. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  3. Quantitative risk assessment of E. coli in street-vended cassava-based delicacies in the Philippines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mesias, I. C. P.

    2018-01-01

    In the Philippines, rootcrop-based food products are gaining popularity in street food trade. However, a number of street-vended food products in the country are reported to be contaminated with E. coli posing possible risk among consumers. In this study, information on quantitative risk assessment of E. coli in street-vended cassava-based delicacies was generated. The assessment started with the prevalence and concentration of E. coli at post production in packages of the cassava-based delicacies. Combase growth predictor was used to trace the microbial population of E. coli in each step of the food chain. The @Risk software package, version 6 (Palisade USA) was used to run the simulations. Scenarios in the post-production to consumption pathway were simulated. The effect was then assessed in relation to exposure to the defined infective dose. In the worst case scenario, a minimum and most likely concentration of 6.3 and 7.8 log CFU of E. coli per serving respectively were observed. The simulation revealed that lowering the temperature in the chain considerably decreased the E. coli concentration prior to consumption and subsequently decreased the percentage of exposure to the infective dose. Exposure to infective dose however was increased with longer lag time from postproduction to consumption.

  4. Quantitative Assessment of Current Risks to Harlequin Ducks in Prince William Sound, Alaska, from the Exxon Valdez Oil Spill

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harwell, Mark A.; Gentile, John H.; Parker, Keith R.; Murphy, Stephen M.; Day, Robert H.; Bence, A. Edward; Neff, Jerry M.; Wiens, John A.

    2012-01-01

    Harlequin Ducks (Histrionicus histrionicus) were adversely affected by the Exxon Valdez oil spill (EVOS) in Prince William Sound (PWS), Alaska, and some have suggested effects continue two decades later. We present an ecological risk assessment evaluating quantitatively whether PWS seaducks continue to be at-risk from polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in residual Exxon Valdez oil. Potential pathways for PAH exposures are identified for initially oiled and never-oiled reference sites. Some potential pathways are implausible (e.g., a seaduck excavating subsurface oil residues), whereas other pathways warrant quantification. We used data on PAH concentrations in PWS prey species, sediments, and seawater collected during 2001–2008 to develop a stochastic individual-based model projecting assimilated doses to seaducks. We simulated exposures to 500,000 individuals in each of eight age/gender classes, capturing the variability within a population of seaducks living in PWS. Doses to the maximum-exposed individuals are ∼400–4,000 times lower than chronic toxicity reference values established using USEPA protocols for seaducks. These exposures are so low that no individual-level effects are plausible, even within a simulated population that is orders-of-magnitude larger than exists in PWS. We conclude that toxicological risks to PWS seaducks from residual Exxon Valdez oil two decades later are essentially non-existent. PMID:23723680

  5. A Statistical-Probabilistic Pattern for Determination of Tunnel Advance Step by Quantitative Risk Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    sasan ghorbani

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available One of the main challenges faced in design and construction phases of tunneling projects is the determination of maximum allowable advance step to maximize excavation rate and reduce project delivery time. Considering the complexity of determining this factor and unexpected risks associated with inappropriate determination of that, it is necessary to employ a method which is capable of accounting for interactions among uncertain geotechnical parameters and advance step. The main objective in the present research is to undertake optimization and risk management of advance step length in water diversion tunnel at Shahriar Dam based on uncertainty of geotechnical parameters following a statistic-probabilistic approach. In the present research, in order to determine optimum advance step for excavation operation, two hybrid methods were used: strength reduction method-discrete element method- Monte Carlo simulation (SRM/DEM/MCS and strength reduction method- discrete element method- point estimate method (SRM/DEM/PEM. Moreover, Taguchi analysis was used to investigate the sensitivity of advance step to changes in statistical distribution function of input parameters under three tunneling scenarios at sections of poor to good qualities (as per RMR classification system. Final results implied the optimality of the advance step defined in scenario 2 where 2 m advance per excavation round was proposed, according to shear strain criterion and SRM/DEM/MCS, with minimum failure probability and risk of 8.05% and 75281.56 $, respectively, at 95% confidence level. Moreover, in either of normal, lognormal, and gamma distributions, as the advance step increased from Scenario 1 to 2, failure probability was observed to increase at lower rate than that observed when advance step in scenario 2 was increased to that In Scenario 3. In addition, Taguchi tests were subjected to signal-to-noise analysis and the results indicated that, considering the three statistical

  6. The effect of different cardiovascular risk presentation formats on intentions, understanding and emotional affect: a randomised controlled trial using a web-based risk formatter (protocol

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Newcombe Robert

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The future risk of heart disease can be predicted with increasing precision. However, more research is needed into how this risk is conveyed and presented. The aim of this study is to compare the effects of presenting cardiovascular risk in different formats on individuals' intention to change behaviour to reduce risk, understanding of risk information and emotional affect. Methods/design A randomised controlled trial comprising four arms, with a between subjects design will be performed. There will be two intervention groups and two control groups. The first control comprises a pre-intervention questionnaire and presents risk in a bar graph format. The second control presents risk in a bar graph format without pre-intervention questionnaire. These two control groups are to account for the potential Hawthorne effect of thinking about cardiovascular risk before viewing actual risk. The two intervention groups comprise presenting risk in either a pictogram or metonym format (image depicting seriousness of having a myocardial infarction. 800 individuals' aged between 45 and 64 years, who have not been previously diagnosed with heart disease and have access to a computer with internet, will be given a link to a website comprising a risk calculator and electronic questionnaires. 10-year risk of having a coronary heart disease event will be assessed and presented in one of the three formats. A post-intervention questionnaire will be completed after viewing the risk format. Main outcome measures are (i intention to change behaviour, (ii understanding of risk information, (iii emotional affect and (iv worry about future heart disease. Secondary outcomes are the sub-components of the theory of planned behaviour: attitudes, perceived behavioural control and subjective norms. Discussion Having reviewed the literature, we are not aware of any other studies which have used the assessment of actual risk, in a trial to compare different

  7. Quantitative structure-activity relationships for predicting potential ecological hazard of organic chemicals for use in regulatory risk assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comber, Mike H I; Walker, John D; Watts, Chris; Hermens, Joop

    2003-08-01

    The use of quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs) for deriving the predicted no-effect concentration of discrete organic chemicals for the purposes of conducting a regulatory risk assessment in Europe and the United States is described. In the United States, under the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA), the TSCA Interagency Testing Committee and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) use SARs to estimate the hazards of existing and new chemicals. Within the Existing Substances Regulation in Europe, QSARs may be used for data evaluation, test strategy indications, and the identification and filling of data gaps. To illustrate where and when QSARs may be useful and when their use is more problematic, an example, methyl tertiary-butyl ether (MTBE), is given and the predicted and experimental data are compared. Improvements needed for new QSARs and tools for developing and using QSARs are discussed.

  8. Integration of quantitative risk assessment in the health impact assessment of the recently amended Hungarian anti-smoking policy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ádám, Balázs; Molnár, Ágnes; Gulis, Gabriel

    2011-01-01

    -smokers to introduce smoking ban in closed public places, workplaces and public transport vehicles. Full chain approach was used to identify basic rules for prioritizing the major impact pathways with special attention to the feasibility of quantifying exposure and outcome. Exposure assessment relied on international...... experiences, while outcome assessment calculated measures of disease burden, like attributable death and disability adjusted life years, for a baseline and a predicted situation after the proposed changes take place. The major impact of the proposal was identified to decreases prevalence of active and passive...... population of Hungary. As demonstrated by the results, providing smoke-free public places has an unambiguous positive impact on the health of the public that has been confirmed by the quantified health gain. The demonstrated methodology offers a practicable example for applying quantitative risk assessment...

  9. Optimal Allocation of Tunnel Safety Provisions Based on a Quantitative Risk Assessment Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pan Li

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses the issue of optimally selecting the tunnel safety provisions. Tunnel safety provisions are the assets of urban road tunnels which are installed and implemented to reduce the tunnel risks, which are basically selected by expert judgment in practice. An optimization model is proposed to obtain the optimal solution for the selection of tunnel safety provisions. The objective function is to minimize the life cycle costs of tunnel safety provisions, which is subject to the requirements for tunnel safety provisions and the safety targets. Finally, by taking advantage of the special structure of the optimization model, a Bi-Section Search and Bound Algorithm (BSSBA is designed to efficiently solve the problem.

  10. Quantitative risk assessment of human campylobacteriosis associated with thermophilic Campylobacter species in chickens

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosenquist, Hanne; Nielsen, N. L.; Sommer, Helle Mølgaard

    2003-01-01

    covers the transfer of Campylobacter during food handling in private kitchens. The age and sex of consumers were included in this module to introduce variable hygiene levels during food preparation and variable sizes and compositions of meals. Finally, the outcome of the exposure assessment modules...... was integrated with a Beta-Poisson dose-response model to provide a risk estimate. Simulations designed to predict the effect of different mitigation strategies showed that the incidence of campylobacteriosis associated with consumption of chicken meals could be reduced 30 times by introducing a 2 log reduction...... of the number of Campylobacter on the chicken carcasses. To obtain a similar reduction of the incidence, the flock prevalence should be reduced approximately 30 times or the kitchen hygiene improved approximately 30 times. Cross-contamination from positive to negative flocks during slaughter had almost...

  11. Understanding public perceptions of benefits and risks of childhood vaccinations in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Geoboo

    2014-03-01

    In the face of a growing public health concern accompanying the reemerging threat of preventable diseases, this research seeks mainly to explain variations in the perceived benefits and risks of vaccinations among the general public in the United States. As Mary Douglas and Aaron Wildavsky's grid-group cultural theory of risk perception claims, the analytical results based upon original data from a nationwide Internet survey of 1,213 American adults conducted in 2010 suggest that individuals' cultural predispositions contribute to the formation of their perceptions pertaining to vaccine benefits and risks at both societal and individual levels, in conjunction with other factors suggested by previous risk perception literature, such as perceived prevalence of diseases, trust, knowledge level, and demographic characteristics. Those with a strong hierarch orientation tend to envision greater benefits and lesser risks and conceive of a relatively high ratio of benefit to risk when compared to other cultural types. By contrast, those with a strong fatalist tendency are inclined to emphasize risks and downplay benefits while conceiving of a low vaccination benefit-risk ratio. Situated between hierarchs and fatalists, strong egalitarians are prone to perceive greater benefits, smaller risks, and a more positive benefit-risk ratio than strong individualists. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  12. Quantitative human health risk assessment for 1,3-butadiene based upon ovarian effects in rodents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirman, C R; Grant, R L

    2012-03-01

    A case study was prepared for noncancer risk assessment of 1,3-butadiene (BD) based upon the ovarian atrophy effects in rodents with specific consideration of the guidelines described by NAS (2009). Ovarian toxicity has been identified in the past as a sensitive endpoint for BD, and serves as the basis for noncancer risk assessment by regulatory agencies. A meta-analysis was conducted in which the available dose-response data from rats and mice were normalized using an internal dose estimate (DEB in blood) that is causally related to ovarian toxicity. A time-to-response (multistage-Weibull) model was used to simultaneously fit the pooled rodent data sets with exposure durations ranging from 13 to 105weeks. Human variation in ovarian follicle count was assumed to reflect variation in sensitivity to the adverse effects associated with follicle depletion (i.e., premature menopause). Information on follicle count in women was used in two ways: (1) the window of susceptibility (from birth to menopause) was defined as 49.6years for women born with an average follicle count, 38.7years for women born with a low follicle count, and 60.0years for women born with a high follicle count; and (2) follicle count was assumed to reflect human susceptibility due to toxicodynamic factors. The multistage-Weibull model was used to predict dose-response curves for three scenarios (average, low, and high follicle counts at birth to generate reference concentration values ranging from 0.2 to 20ppm). This case study illustrates how information on mode of action can be used to guide key decisions in the dose-response assessment with respect to identifying a dose measure, low-dose extrapolation method, background exposure, and sensitive subpopulations. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Understanding clusters of risk factors across different environmental and social contexts for the prediction of injuries among Canadian youth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, K; Davison, C; King, N; Pike, I; Pickett, W

    2016-05-01

    Among Canadian youth, injury is the most common reason for presentation to the emergency department. Youth who commonly engage in multiple risk-taking behaviours are at greater risk for injury, but is it unknown if this phenomenon is more pronounced in different contexts. We aimed to study relationships between risk-taking behaviours and injury, and variations in such relationships between different environmental and social contexts, among youth in Canada. Risk-taking behaviour and injury outcome data were collected from grade 9 to 10 students using the 2009-2010 (Cycle 6) of the Health Behaviour in School-Aged Children Survey (n=10,429). Principal components analysis was used to identify clusters of risk-taking behaviours. Within each identified cluster, the degree of risk-taking was categorized into quartiles from lowest to highest engagement in the behaviours. Risk ratios with 95% confidence intervals were calculated to determine the association between the risk of any injury and the degree of risk-taking behaviour specific to the cluster. Clusters were then examined across home, school, neighbourhood and sport contexts. Four clusters of risk-taking behaviour were identified which were labelled as "gateway substance use", "hard drugs and weapons", "overt risk-taking", and "physical activity". Each cluster was related to injury occurrence in a graded fashion. Clusters of risk behaviour were most strongly associated with injuries sustained in neighbourhood settings, and expectedly, increasing physical activity behaviours were associated with increased risk of sport injuries and injuries occurring at school. This study furthers understanding of clustered risk-taking phenomena that put youth at increasing levels of injury risk. Higher risks for injury and associated gradients were observed in less structured contexts such as neighbourhoods. In contrast, clustered physical activity behaviours were most related to school injury or sport injury and were more likely to

  14. Visual and Quantitative Assessment of Coronary Stenoses at Angiography Versus Fractional Flow Reserve: The Impact of Risk Factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adjedj, Julien; Xaplanteris, Panagiotis; Toth, Gabor; Ferrara, Angela; Pellicano, Mariano; Ciccarelli, Giovanni; Floré, Vincent; Barbato, Emanuele; De Bruyne, Bernard

    2017-07-01

    The correlation between angiographic assessment of coronary stenoses and fractional flow reserve (FFR) is weak. Whether and how risk factors impact the diagnostic accuracy of angiography is unknown. We sought to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of angiography by visual estimate and by quantitative coronary angiography when compared with FFR and evaluate the influence of risk factors (RF) on this accuracy. In 1382 coronary stenoses (1104 patients), percent diameter stenosis by visual estimation (DS VE ) and by quantitative coronary angiography (DS QCA ) was compared with FFR. Patients were divided into 4 subgroups, according to the presence of RFs, and the relationship between DS VE , DS QCA , and FFR was analyzed. Overall, DS VE was significantly higher than DS QCA ( P <0.0001); nonetheless, when examined by strata of DS, DS VE was significantly smaller than DS QCA in mild stenoses, although the reverse held true for severe stenoses. Compared with FFR, a large scatter was observed for both DS VE and DS QCA . When using a dichotomous FFR value of 0.80, C statistic was significantly higher for DS VE than for DS QCA (0.712 versus 0.640, respectively; P <0.001). C statistics for DS VE decreased progressively as RFs accumulated (0.776 for ≤1 RF, 0.750 for 2 RFs, 0.713 for 3 RFs and 0.627 for ≥4 RFs; P =0.0053). In addition, in diabetics, the relationship between FFR and angiographic indices was particularly weak (C statistics: 0.524 for DS VE and 0.511 for DS QCA ). Overall, DS VE has a better diagnostic accuracy than DS QCA to predict the functional significance of coronary stenosis. The predictive accuracy of angiography is moderate in patients with ≤1 RFs, but weakens as RFs accumulate, especially in diabetics. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

  15. Specialist antenatal clinics for women at high risk of preterm birth: a systematic review of qualitative and quantitative research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malouf, Reem; Redshaw, Maggie

    2017-02-02

    Preterm birth (PTB) is the leading cause of perinatal morbidity and mortality. Women with previous prenatal loss are at higher risk of preterm birth. A specialist antenatal clinic is considered as one approach to improve maternity and pregnancy outcomes. A systematic review of quantitative, qualitative and mixed method studies conducted on women at high risk of preterm birth (PTB). The review primary outcomes were to report on the specialist antenatal clinics effect in preventing or reducing preterm birth, perinatal mortality and morbidity and women's perceptions and experiences of a specialist clinic whether compared or not compared with standard antenatal care. Other secondary maternal, infant and economic outcomes were also determined. A comprehensive search strategy was carried out in English within electronic databases as far back as 1980. The reviewers selected studies, assessed the quality, and extracted data independently. Results were summarized and tabulated. Eleven studies fully met the review inclusion criteria, ten were quantitative design studies and only one was a qualitative design study. No mixed method design study was included in the review. All were published after 1989, seven were conducted in the USA and four in the UK. Results from five good to low quality randomised controlled trials (RCTs), all conducted before 1990, did not illustrate the efficacy of the clinic in reducing preterm birth. Whereas results from more recent low quality cohort studies showed some positive neonatal outcomes. Themes from one good quality qualitative study reflected on the emotional and psychological need to reduce anxiety and stress of women referred to such a clinic. Women expressed their negative emotional responses at being labelled as high risk and positive responses to being assessed and treated in the clinic. Women also reported that their partners were struggling to cope emotionally. Findings from this review were mixed. Evidence from cohort studies

  16. A new near-term breast cancer risk prediction scheme based on the quantitative analysis of ipsilateral view mammograms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Wenqing; Tseng, Tzu-Liang Bill; Qian, Wei; Saltzstein, Edward C; Zheng, Bin; Yu, Hui; Zhou, Shi

    2018-03-01

    To help improve efficacy of screening mammography and eventually establish an optimal personalized screening paradigm, this study aimed to develop and test a new near-term breast cancer risk prediction scheme based on the quantitative analysis of ipsilateral view of the negative screening mammograms. The dataset includes digital mammograms acquired from 392 women with two sequential full-field digital mammography examinations. All the first ("prior") sets of mammograms were interpreted as negative during the original reading. In the sequential ("current") screening, 202 were proved positive and 190 remained negative/benign. For each pair of the "prior" ipsilateral mammograms, we adaptively fused the image features computed from two views. Using four different types of image features, we built four elastic net support vector machine (EnSVM) based classifiers. Then, the initial prediction scores form the 4 EnSVMs were combined to build a final artificial neural network (ANN) classifier that produces the final risk prediction score. The performance of the new scheme was evaluated by using a 10-fold cross-validation method and an assessment index of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). A total number of 466 features were initially extracted from each pair of ipsilateral mammograms. Among them, 51 were selected to build the EnSVM based prediction scheme. The AUC = 0.737 ± 0.052 was yielded using the new scheme. Applying an optimal operating threshold, the prediction sensitivity was 60.4% (122 of 202) and the specificity was 79.0% (150 of 190). The study results showed moderately high positive association between computed risk scores using the "prior" negative mammograms and the actual outcome of the image-detectable breast cancers in the next subsequent screening examinations. The study also demonstrated that quantitative analysis of the ipsilateral views of the mammograms enabled to provide useful information in predicting near

  17. Host cell proteins in biologics development: Identification, quantitation and risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xing; Hunter, Alan K; Mozier, Ned M

    2009-06-15

    Host cell proteins (HCPs) are those produced or encoded by the organisms and unrelated to the intended recombinant product. Some are necessary for growth, survival, and normal cellular processing whereas others may be non-essential, simply carried along as baggage. Like the recombinant product, HCPs may also be modified by the host with a number of post-translational modifications. Regardless of the utility, or lack thereof, HCPs are undesirable in the final drug substance. Though commonly present in small quantities (parts per million expressed as nanograms per milligrams of the intended recombinant protein) much effort and cost is expended by industry to remove them. The purpose of this review is to summarize what is of relevance in regards to the biology, the impact of genomics and proteomics on HCP evaluation, the regulatory expectations, analytical approaches, and various methodologies to remove HCPs with bioprocessing. Historical data, bioinformatics approaches and industrial case study examples are provided. Finally, a proposal for a risk assessment tool is provided which brings these facets together and proposes a means for manufacturers to classify and organize a control strategy leading to meaningful product specifications. 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  18. Quantitative risk assessment on the dietary exposure of Finnish children and adults to nitrite.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suomi, Johanna; Ranta, Jukka; Tuominen, Pirkko; Putkonen, Tiina; Bäckman, Christina; Ovaskainen, Marja-Leena; Virtanen, Suvi M; Savela, Kirsti

    2016-01-01

    Nitrite intake from the consumption of cured meat and tap water was estimated for Finnish children of 1, 3 and 6 years as well as Finnish adults of 25-74 years. Nitrite content in the foods was measured by capillary electrophoresis, and was then used together with individual food consumption data from the FINDIET 2007 and DIPP studies in a stochastic exposure assessment by a Monte Carlo Risk Assessment (MCRA) program. Nitrite intake from additive sources and tap water was assessed, and more than every 10th child between the ages 3 and 6 years was estimated to have a nitrite intake exceeding the acceptable daily intake (ADI) of nitrite. The high exposure levels were caused by frequent consumption of large portions of sausages, up to 350 g day(-1) or 750 g in 3 days, among the children. Median nitrite intake from cured meat was 0.016, 0.040, 0.033 and 0.005 mg kg(-1) body weight day(-1) for children of 1, 3 and 6 years and adults, respectively. Bayesian estimation was employed to determine safe consumption levels of sausages and cold cuts for children, and these results gave rise to new national food consumption advice.

  19. Effects of Intervention to Improve At-Risk Fourth Graders' Understanding, Calculations, and Word Problems with Fractions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuchs, Lynn S.; Schumacher, Robin F.; Long, Jessica; Namkung, Jessica; Malone, Amelia S.; Wang, Amber; Hamlett, Carol L.; Jordan, Nancy C.; Siegler, Robert S.; Changas, Paul

    2016-01-01

    The purposes of this study were to (a) investigate the efficacy of a core fraction intervention program on understanding and calculation skill and (b) isolate the effects of different forms of fraction word-problem (WP) intervention. At-risk fourth graders (n = 213) were randomly assigned to the school's business-as-usual program, or one of two…

  20. Understanding Clinicians' Use of Cues When Assessing the Future Risk of Violence: A Clinical Judgement Analysis in the Psychiatric Setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Barbara; Rakow, Tim

    2016-01-01

    Research is sparse on how clinicians' judgement informs their violence risk assessments. Yet, determining preferences for which risk factors are used, and how they are weighted and combined, is important to understanding such assessments. This study investigated clinicians' use of static and dynamic cues when assessing risk in individual patients and for dynamic cues considered in the recent and distant past. Clinicians provided three violence risk assessments for 41 separate hypothetical cases of hospitalized patients, each defined by eight cues (e.g., psychopathy and past violence severity/frequency). A clinical judgement analysis, using regression analysis of judgements for multiple cases, created linear models reflecting the major influences on each individual clinician's judgement. Risk assessments could be successfully predicted by between one and four cues, and there was close agreement between different clinicians' models regarding which cues were relevant for a given assessment. However, which cues were used varied between assessments: history of recent violence predicted assessments of in-hospital risk, whereas violence in the distant past predicted the assessed risk in the community. Crucially, several factors included in actuarial/structured risk assessment tools had little influence on clinicians' assessments. Our findings point to the adaptivity in clinicians' violence risk assessments, with a preference for relying on information consistent with the setting for which the assessment applies. The implication is that clinicians are open to using different structured assessment tools for different kinds of risk assessment, although they may seek greater flexibility in their assessments than some structured risk assessment tools afford (e.g., discounting static risk factors). Across three separate violence risk assessments, clinicians' risk assessments were more strongly influenced by dynamic cues that can vary over time (e.g., level of violence) than by

  1. Improved Understanding of Carbon Storage Risk Via Controlled-Release Experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birkholzer, J. T.; Guglielmi, Y.; Rutqvist, J.; Zheng, L.; Spycher, N.

    2014-12-01

    Two issues are often recognized as main risk drivers for carbon storage projects. The first is the possibility of pressure-induced slip of pre-existing faults, which can lead to breaching of seals to CO2 storage reservoirs. Although the mechanics of induced seismicity are well known, the characteristics of such slip events are poorly constrained and significant questions remain. The second is the potential impact of leaking CO2 on the quality of shallow potable groundwater. While several studies have been conducted using laboratory tests, natural analogues, and numerical models to evaluate the water quality changes induced by elevated CO2 concentrations, predictive understanding of these coupled processes remains limited in realistic field settings. We discuss in this invited contribution two controlled-release field experiments targeting remaining science gaps associated with induced seismicity and groundwater chemistry. The first experiment is a planned active fault slip experiment conducted in an underground research laboratory (URL) in a hardened shale formation that serves as a caprock analog. The critically stressed fault will be perturbed by the injection of fluid under pressure to simulate the influence of CO2 overpressure. The in situ reactivation experiment will use a novel borehole deformation tool that assesses the magnitude of overpressure required to cause slip, defines the mode of this slip as creeping (aseismic) or rapid (seismic), and measures the evolution of permeability on the fault. The second controlled-release field experiment was conducted in 2011/2012 to simulate the release of CO2 from a geologic storage site and study the transport as well as the chemical mechanisms leading to the CO2-induced mobilization of trace elements in a shallow aquifer. The field test involved a dipole system in which the shallow groundwater was pumped from one well, saturated with CO2 at the pressure corresponding to the hydraulic pressure of the aquifer, and

  2. Understanding public perceptions of risk regarding outdoor pet cats to inform conservation action.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gramza, Ashley; Teel, Tara; VandeWoude, Susan; Crooks, Kevin

    2016-04-01

    Free-ranging domestic cats (Felis catus) incur and impose risks on ecosystems and represent a complex issue of critical importance to biodiversity conservation and cat and human health globally. Prior social science research on this topic is limited and has emphasized feral cats even though owned cats often comprise a large proportion of the outdoor cat population, particularly in urban areas. To address this gap, we examined public risk perceptions and attitudes toward outdoor pet cats across varying levels of urbanization, including along the wildland-urban interface, in Colorado (U.S.A.), through a mail survey of 1397 residents. Residents did not view all types of risks uniformly. They viewed risks of cat predation on wildlife and carnivore predation on cats as more likely than disease-related risks. Additionally, risk perceptions were related to attitudes, prior experiences with cats and cat-wildlife interactions, and cat-owner behavior. Our findings suggest that changes in risk perceptions may result in behavior change. Therefore, knowledge of cat-related risk perceptions and attitudes could be used to develop communication programs aimed at promoting risk-aversive behaviors among cat owners and cat-management strategies that are acceptable to the public and that directly advance the conservation of native species. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

  3. Perception versus reality: Bridging the gap between quantitative and qualitative information relating to the risks of uranium mining

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Needham, S.

    2002-01-01

    Environmental impact of uranium mining in Australia is frequently raised as an issue of public concern. However, the level of concern both in terms of public agitation and political response has diminished over the last decade, largely as a consequence of many years of demonstrated high levels of environmental protection achieved at Australian uranium mines. Another reason is because of improved information now accessible to the public on mine environmental management systems, monitoring results, and audit outcomes. This paper describes some communication methods developed for the uranium mines of the Alligator Rivers Region of the Northern Territory. These methods have improved the effectiveness of dialogue between stakeholders, and better inform the public about the levels of environmental protection achieved and the level of risk to the environment and the community. A simple approach is described which has been developed to help build a mutual understanding between technocrats and the lay person on perceptions of risk and actual environmental impact. (author)

  4. Quantitative investment analysis

    CERN Document Server

    DeFusco, Richard

    2007-01-01

    In the "Second Edition" of "Quantitative Investment Analysis," financial experts Richard DeFusco, Dennis McLeavey, Jerald Pinto, and David Runkle outline the tools and techniques needed to understand and apply quantitative methods to today's investment process.

  5. Quantitative comparison of low dose and standard dose radioiodine therapy effectiveness in patients with low risk differentiated thyroid cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdulrezzak, Ummuhan; Tutus, Ahmet; Isik, Ilknur; Kurt, Yurdagul; Kula, Mustafa

    2017-09-01

    The aim of this paper was to compare the results of postoperative I-131 remnant ablation therapy using a quantitative data in the low activity (1110 MBq) and standard dose (3700 MBq). The study included two groups of patients with low risk differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC): Group L (low dose group) included 54 patients who were treated with 1110 MBq I-131 and Group S (standard dose group) included 61 patients treated with 3700 MBq. The postoperative thyroid remnants were assessed with the pretreatment thyroid uptake test (PTUT) and the whole body scans (WBS) were performed in the 7th day after the ablation treatment. We obtained the average count per pixel from the standard region of interest analysis of the thyroid bed (Tavc), liver (Lavc), thigh (Thavc) and whole body (WBkc). At the sixth month after the treatment, WBS were performed to 106 patients (45 patients from Group L and 61 patients from Group S) to evaluate the success of ablation treatment. A significant difference in PTUT and Tavc was not found between the two groups (P>0.05). However, Lavc, Thavc and WBkc were significantly higher in Group S compared with Group L (P0.05). In low risk DTC patients, low dose radioactive iodine can ablate thyroid remnants as effectively as a higher dose with less radiation exposure to other non-target organs and the whole body.

  6. Retrospective analysis of a listeria monocytogenes contamination episode in raw milk goat cheese using quantitative microbial risk assessment tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delhalle, L; Ellouze, M; Yde, M; Clinquart, A; Daube, G; Korsak, N

    2012-12-01

    In 2005, the Belgian authorities reported a Listeria monocytogenes contamination episode in cheese made from raw goat's milk. The presence of an asymptomatic shedder goat in the herd caused this contamination. On the basis of data collected at the time of the episode, a retrospective study was performed using an exposure assessment model covering the production chain from the milking of goats up to delivery of cheese to the market. Predictive microbiology models were used to simulate the growth of L. monocytogenes during the cheese process in relation with temperature, pH, and water activity. The model showed significant growth of L. monocytogenes during chilling and storage of the milk collected the day before the cheese production (median increase of 2.2 log CFU/ml) and during the addition of starter and rennet to milk (median increase of 1.2 log CFU/ml). The L. monocytogenes concentration in the fresh unripened cheese was estimated to be 3.8 log CFU/g (median). This result is consistent with the number of L. monocytogenes in the fresh cheese (3.6 log CFU/g) reported during the cheese contamination episode. A variance-based method sensitivity analysis identified the most important factors impacting the cheese contamination, and a scenario analysis then evaluated several options for risk mitigation. Thus, by using quantitative microbial risk assessment tools, this study provides reliable information to identify and control critical steps in a local production chain of cheese made from raw goat's milk.

  7. Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) for an Underground Blowout Scenario in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) Well

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tyagi, M.; Zulqarnain, M.

    2017-12-01

    Offshore oil and gas exploration and production operations, involve the use of some of the cutting edge and challenging technologies of the modern time. These technological complex operations involves the risk of major accidents as well, which have been demonstrated by disasters such as the explosion and fire on the UK production platform piper alpha, the Canadian semi-submersible drilling rig Ocean Ranger and the explosion and capsizing of Deepwater horizon rig in the Gulf of Mexico. By conducting Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA), safety of various operations as well as their associated risks and significance during the entire life phase of an offshore project can be quantitatively estimated. In an underground blowout, the uncontrolled formation fluids from higher pressure formation may charge up shallower overlying low pressure formations or may migrate to sea floor. Consequences of such underground blowouts range from no visible damage at the surface to the complete loss of well, loss of drilling rig, seafloor subsidence or hydrocarbons discharged to the environment. These blowouts might go unnoticed until the over pressured sands, which are the result of charging from higher pressure reservoir due to an underground blowout. Further, engineering formulas used to estimate the fault permeability and thickness are very simple in nature and may add to uncertainty in the estimated parameters. In this study the potential of a deepwater underground blowout are assessed during drilling life phase of a well in Popeye-Genesis field reservoir in the Gulf of Mexico to estimate the time taken to charge a shallower zone to its leak-off test (LOT) value. Parametric simulation results for selected field case show that for relatively high permeability (k = 40mD) fault connecting a deep over-pressured zone to a shallower low-pressure zone of similar reservoir volumes, the time to recharge the shallower zone up to its threshold LOT value is about 135 years. If the ratio of the

  8. Quantitative effects on cardiovascular risk factors and coronary heart disease risk of replacing partially hydrogenated vegetable oils with other fats and oils.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mozaffarian, D; Clarke, R

    2009-05-01

    Reduced consumption of trans-fatty acids (TFA) is desirable to lower coronary heart disease (CHD) risk. In practice, partially hydrogenated vegetable oils (PHVO) that contain both TFAs and other fatty acids are the unit of replacement and could be replaced with diverse alternative fats and oils. We performed quantitative estimates of CHD effects if a person's PHVO consumption were to be replaced with alternative fats and oils based on (1) randomized dietary trials and (2) prospective observational studies. We performed meta-analyses of (1) the effects of TFAs on blood lipids and lipoproteins in controlled dietary trials and (2) associations of habitual TFA consumption with CHD outcomes in prospective cohort studies. On the basis of these results and corresponding findings for saturated fatty acids (SFA), cis-monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFA) and cis-polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA), we calculated the effects on CHD risk for replacing 7.5% of energy from three different PHVO formulations (containing 20, 35 or 45% TFAs) with butter, lard, palm or vegetable oils. In controlled trials, each 1% energy replacement of TFAs with SFAs, MUFAs or PUFAs, respectively, decreased the total cholesterol (TC)/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) ratio by 0.31, 0.54 and 0.67; the apolipoprotein (Apo)-B/ApoAI ratio by 0.007, 0.010 and 0.011; and lipoprotein (Lp)(a) by 3.76, 1.39 and 1.11 mg/l (Poils replacing 7.5% of energy from 20% TFA PHVO (CHD risk reduction: -2.7% (butter) to -9.9% (canola)); 35% TFA PHVO (-11.9% (butter) to -16.0% (canola)); or 45% TFA PHVO (-17.6% (butter) to -19.8% (canola)). In prospective cohort studies, each 2% energy replacement of TFAs with SFAs, MUFAs or PUFAs would lower CHD risk by 17% (95% confidence interval (CI)=7-25%), 21% (95% CI=12-30%) or 24% (95% CI=15-33%), respectively. On the basis of these associations in observational studies, CHD risk would be variably decreased by different fats and oils replacing 7.5% of energy from 20% TFA

  9. Understanding personal risk of oropharyngeal cancer: risk-groups for oncogenic oral HPV infection and oropharyngeal cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Souza, G; McNeel, T S; Fakhry, C

    2017-12-01

    Incidence of human papillomavirus (HPV)-related oropharyngeal cancer is increasing. There is interest in identifying healthy individuals most at risk for development of oropharyngeal cancer to inform screening strategies. All data are from 2009 to 2014, including 13 089 people ages 20-69 in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), oropharyngeal cancer cases from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER 18) registries (representing ∼28% of the US population), and oropharyngeal cancer mortality from National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). Primary study outcomes are (i) prevalence of oncogenic HPV DNA in an oral rinse and gargle sample, and (ii) incident oropharyngeal squamous cell cancer. Oncogenic oral HPV DNA is detected in 3.5% of all adults age 20-69 years; however, the lifetime risk of oropharyngeal cancer is low (37 per 10 000). Among men 50-59 years old, 8.1% have an oncogenic oral HPV infection, 2.1% have an oral HPV16 infection, yet only 0.7% will 'ever' develop oropharyngeal cancer in their lifetime. Oncogenic oral HPV prevalence was higher in men than women, and increased with number of lifetime oral sexual partners and tobacco use. Men who currently smoked and had ≥5 lifetime oral sexual partners had 'elevated risk' (prevalence = 14.9%). Men with only one of these risk factors (i.e. either smoked and had 2-4 partners or did not smoke and had ≥5 partners) had 'medium risk' (7.3%). Regardless of what other risk factors participants had, oncogenic oral HPV prevalence was 'low' among those with only ≤1 lifetime oral sexual partner (women = 0.7% and men = 1.7%). Screening based upon oncogenic oral HPV detection would be challenging. Most groups have low oncogenic oral HPV prevalence. In addition to the large numbers of individuals who would need to be screened to identify prevalent oncogenic oral HPV, the lifetime risk of developing oropharyngeal caner among those with infection remains

  10. Quantitative weight of evidence assessment of higher tier studies on the toxicity and risks of neonicotinoids in honeybees. 3. Clothianidin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomon, Keith R; Stephenson, Gladys L

    2017-01-01

    A quantitative weight of evidence (QWoE) methodology was used to assess higher tier studies on the effects of clothianidin (CTD) on honeybees. Assessment endpoints were population size and viability of commercially managed bees and quantity of hive products. A colony-level no-observed-adverse effect concentration (NOAEC) of 25 µg CTD/kg syrup, equivalent to an oral no-observed-adverse effect-dose (NOAED) of 7.3 ng/bee/d for all responses measured. Based on a NOAEC of 19.7 µg/kg pollen, the NOAED for honeybee larvae was 2.4 ng/bee larva/d. For exposures via dust, a no-observed-adverse effect rate of 4 g CTD/ha was used to assess relevance of exposures via deposition of dust. The overall weight of evidence suggested that there is minimal risk to honeybees from exposure to CTD from its use as a seed treatment. For exposures via dust, dust/seed and dust/foliar applications, there were no exposures greater than the NOAED for CTD in nectar and pollen, indicating a de minimis risk to honeybees when the route of exposure was via uptake in plants. Analysis of effect studies in the field indicated a consistent lack of relevant effects, regardless of the way CTD was applied. For exposures via dust, there were no adverse effects because of these applications and there were no exposures greater than the NOAED for CTD in nectar and pollen. The overall weight of evidence based on many studies indicated no adverse effects on colony viability or survival of the colony. Thus, the overall conclusion is that clothianidin, as currently used in good agricultural practices, does not present a significant risk to honeybees at the level of the colony.

  11. Agreement between calcaneal quantitative ultrasound and osteoporosis self-assessment tool for Asians in identifying individuals at risk of osteoporosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chin KY

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Kok-Yong Chin,1 Nie Yen Low,2 Alia Annessa Ain Kamaruddin,2 Wan Ilma Dewiputri,2 Ima-Nirwana Soelaiman1 1Department of Pharmacology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia Medical Centre, Cheras, Malaysia; 2ASASIpintar Foundation Program, PERMATApintar National Gifted Centre, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Bangi, Malaysia Background: Calcaneal quantitative ultrasound (QUS is a useful tool in osteoporosis screening. However, QUS device may not be available at all primary health care settings. Osteoporosis self-assessment tool for Asians (OSTA is a simple algorithm for osteoporosis screening that does not require any sophisticated instruments. This study explored the possibility of replacing QUS with OSTA by determining their agreement in identifying individuals at risk of osteoporosis. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted to recruit Malaysian men and women aged ≥50 years. Their bone health status was measured using a calcaneal QUS device and OSTA. The association between OSTA and QUS was determined using Spearman’s correlation and their agreement was assessed using Cohen Kappa and receiver-operating curve. Results: All QUS indices correlated significantly with OSTA (p<0.05. The agreement between QUS and OSTA was minimal but statistically significant (p<0.05. The performance of OSTA in identifying subjects at risk of osteoporosis according to QUS was poor-to-fair in women (p<0.05, but not statistically significant for men (p>0.05. Changing the cut-off values improved the performance of OSTA in women but not in men. Conclusion: The agreement between QUS and OSTA is minimal in categorizing individuals at risk of osteoporosis. Therefore, they cannot be used interchangeably in osteoporosis screening. Keywords: bone, correlation, osteopenia, ROC, sensitivity, specificity

  12. An association rule mining-based framework for understanding lifestyle risk behaviors.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    So Hyun Park

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: This study investigated the prevalence and patterns of lifestyle risk behaviors in Korean adults. METHODS: We utilized data from the Fourth Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey for 14,833 adults (>20 years of age. We used association rule mining to analyze patterns of lifestyle risk behaviors by characterizing non-adherence to public health recommendations related to the Alameda 7 health behaviors. The study variables were current smoking, heavy drinking, physical inactivity, obesity, inadequate sleep, breakfast skipping, and frequent snacking. RESULTS: Approximately 72% of Korean adults exhibited two or more lifestyle risk behaviors. Among women, current smoking, obesity, and breakfast skipping were associated with inadequate sleep. Among men, breakfast skipping with additional risk behaviors such as physical inactivity, obesity, and inadequate sleep was associated with current smoking. Current smoking with additional risk behaviors such as inadequate sleep or breakfast skipping was associated with physical inactivity. CONCLUSION: Lifestyle risk behaviors are intercorrelated in Korea. Information on patterns of lifestyle risk behaviors could assist in planning interventions targeted at multiple behaviors simultaneously.

  13. Transcending the Quantitative-Qualitative Divide with Mixed Methods Research: A Multidimensional Framework for Understanding Congruence and Completeness in the Study of Values

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLafferty, Charles L., Jr.; Slate, John R.; Onwuegbuzie, Anthony J.

    2010-01-01

    Quantitative research dominates published literature in the helping professions. Mixed methods research, which integrates quantitative and qualitative methodologies, has received a lukewarm reception. The authors address the iterative separation that infuses theory, praxis, philosophy, methodology, training, and public perception and propose a…

  14. To your health: how to understand what research tells us about risk

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Kraemer, Helena Chmura; Lowe, Karen Kraemer; Kupfer, David J

    2005-01-01

    ... of Measurements and Diagnoses 115 Part III Cutting-Edge Approaches 9 How Strong Is the Risk Factor? Potency 135 10 How Do We Do a Moderator- Mediator Analysis? 168 11 How Do We Use Multiple Risk Factors? ROC Tree Methods 189 Part IV Where Do We Go from Here? 12 Where Are We Now? 207 13 Making the Best of Good Studies 223 14 Hope for the Future 238 Append...

  15. Internationalization through E-Commerce : Exploring percieved risks and understanding the challenges ahead

    OpenAIRE

    Holmberg, Mattias; Holmström-Szugalski, Madeleine

    2017-01-01

    This study examines the phenomenon of the usage of e-commerce in relation to firms’ internationalization process. Consequently, the study investigates risks and psychic distance in relation to prior research within International business, Internationalization and e- commerce, while focusing on the latest era of academia, namely “Internetalization”. The study investigates how e-commerce and its tools reduce perceived risks associated with firms’ internationalization process and what challenges...

  16. Understanding and predicting suicidality using a combined genomic and clinical risk assessment approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niculescu, A B; Levey, D F; Phalen, P L; Le-Niculescu, H; Dainton, H D; Jain, N; Belanger, E; James, A; George, S; Weber, H; Graham, D L; Schweitzer, R; Ladd, T B; Learman, R; Niculescu, E M; Vanipenta, N P; Khan, F N; Mullen, J; Shankar, G; Cook, S; Humbert, C; Ballew, A; Yard, M; Gelbart, T; Shekhar, A; Schork, N J; Kurian, S M; Sandusky, G E; Salomon, D R

    2015-11-01

    Worldwide, one person dies every 40 seconds by suicide, a potentially preventable tragedy. A limiting step in our ability to intervene is the lack of objective, reliable predictors. We have previously provided proof of principle for the use of blood gene expression biomarkers to predict future hospitalizations due to suicidality, in male bipolar disorder participants. We now generalize the discovery, prioritization, validation, and testing of such markers across major psychiatric disorders (bipolar disorder, major depressive disorder, schizoaffective disorder, and schizophrenia) in male participants, to understand commonalities and differences. We used a powerful within-participant discovery approach to identify genes that change in expression between no suicidal ideation and high suicidal ideation states (n=37 participants out of a cohort of 217 psychiatric participants followed longitudinally). We then used a convergent functional genomics (CFG) approach with existing prior evidence in the field to prioritize the candidate biomarkers identified in the discovery step. Next, we validated the top biomarkers from the prioritization step for relevance to suicidal behavior, in a demographically matched cohort of suicide completers from the coroner's office (n=26). The biomarkers for suicidal ideation only are enriched for genes involved in neuronal connectivity and schizophrenia, the biomarkers also validated for suicidal behavior are enriched for genes involved in neuronal activity and mood. The 76 biomarkers that survived Bonferroni correction after validation for suicidal behavior map to biological pathways involved in immune and inflammatory response, mTOR signaling and growth factor regulation. mTOR signaling is necessary for the effects of the rapid-acting antidepressant agent ketamine, providing a novel biological rationale for its possible use in treating acute suicidality. Similarly, MAOB, a target of antidepressant inhibitors, was one of the increased

  17. The effect of a policy measure on work-related health risks – combine the quantitative and the qualitative

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heuvel, S.G. van den; Vergeer, R.; Weerd, M. de

    2017-01-01

    Policy-makers have an urgent need for quantitative data to support their decision-making process. Since quantitative data are rarely available, the combination of quantitative and qualitative methods is needed to estimate the consequences of a policy measure. In this study, we will estimate the

  18. Symbolic Interactionism: A Framework for Understanding Risk-Taking Behaviors in Farm Communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sorensen, Julie A; Tinc, Pamela J; Weil, Rebecca; Droullard, David

    2017-01-01

    Risk behaviors are key drivers of occupationally related injuries and illnesses, considerably impacting the uptake and success of injury interventions, technologies, and practices. This is certainly true in the agricultural sector, where farmers often ignore recommended safety practices or have even been known to disable safety technologies. Although research studies have characterized specific individual safety or risk behaviors, few studies have thoroughly examined farmers' risk and safety orientations or how these develop in response to environmental and societal exposures. This study utilizes data collected over the past decade with a variety of small to midsize farm personnel to explore the meanings that farmers ascribe to risk and safety and how these influence risk and safety behaviors. In all, over 90 interviews with farmers, farm-wives, and family members were reviewed. Researchers used a grounded theory approach to identify patterns of environmental and societal exposures, as well as their impact on farmers' risk and safety orientations. Analysis revealed exposures and orientations to risk and safety, which could be largely explained through the lens of symbolic interactionism. This framework posits that people create a sense-of-self as a way of adjusting and adapting to their environment. For farmers in this study, belief in their ability to persevere allows them to succeed, despite the considerable stressors and challenges they face each day. However, this identity can, at times, be maladaptive when it is applied to safety decisions and hazard exposures. The authors discuss the implications of this research and how it may be used to productively inform future farm safety efforts.

  19. Can I Count on Getting Better? Association between Math Anxiety and Poorer Understanding of Medical Risk Reductions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rolison, Jonathan J; Morsanyi, Kinga; O'Connor, Patrick A

    2016-10-01

    Lower numerical ability is associated with poorer understanding of health statistics, such as risk reductions of medical treatment. For many people, despite good numeracy skills, math provokes anxiety that impedes an ability to evaluate numerical information. Math-anxious individuals also report less confidence in their ability to perform math tasks. We hypothesized that, independent of objective numeracy, math anxiety would be associated with poorer responding and lower confidence when calculating risk reductions of medical treatments. Objective numeracy was assessed using an 11-item objective numeracy scale. A 13-item self-report scale was used to assess math anxiety. In experiment 1, participants were asked to interpret the baseline risk of disease and risk reductions associated with treatment options. Participants in experiment 2 were additionally provided a graphical display designed to facilitate the processing of math information and alleviate effects of math anxiety. Confidence ratings were provided on a 7-point scale. Individuals of higher objective numeracy were more likely to respond correctly to baseline risks and risk reductions associated with treatment options and were more confident in their interpretations. Individuals who scored high in math anxiety were instead less likely to correctly interpret the baseline risks and risk reductions and were less confident in their risk calculations as well as in their assessments of the effectiveness of treatment options. Math anxiety predicted confidence levels but not correct responding when controlling for objective numeracy. The graphical display was most effective in increasing confidence among math-anxious individuals. The findings suggest that math anxiety is associated with poorer medical risk interpretation but is more strongly related to confidence in interpretations. © The Author(s) 2015.

  20. Quantitative risk assessment for the annual risk of exposure to Trichinella spiralis in imported chilled pork meat from New Zealand to Singapore.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, E K B; Cogger, N; Pomroy, W E; Potter, M A; Morris, R S

    2009-10-01

    To determine the annual likelihood of exposure to an infectious dose of Trichinella spiralis from consuming imported pork meat from New Zealand to Singapore. Input values specific for chilled pork meat imported into Singapore from New Zealand were used in a quantitative risk-assessment model. The model, designed to allow any combination of importing and exporting countries, was divided into two components, viz the release assessment, and the exposure assessment that assessed the annual risk of exposure to the consumer (ARC). The former estimated the likelihood that a contaminated fresh meat product from New Zealand would arrive at Singapore's border, and took into consideration the prevalence of disease on different types of farms. The latter determined the likelihood over a year that a person in Singapore would consume one or more servings of imported fresh meat from New Zealand that contained a burden of greater than or equal to one larva(e) of T. spiralis per gram after preparation for consumption. The ARC for offal was 2.41 x 10(-7), which was below the pre-selected safety threshold of 1.00 x 10(-6). The ARC for lean meat was 2.39 x 10(-5), which was above the acceptable safety threshold. The study demonstrated that continued routine testing at slaughter is unnecessary for pig offal produced commercially, and provided a model with which to further assess management of the risk of exposure to T. spiralis in lean meat. The potential of Trichinella species to cause disease in humans is a public health concern, and has created adverse effects on the international trade of fresh lean meat without regard to the surveillance measures employed by particular pork-producing countries.

  1. Understanding why gay men seek HIV-seroconcordant partners: intimacy and risk reduction motivations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frost, David M; Stirratt, Michael J; Ouellette, Suzanne C

    2008-06-01

    Our goal was to situate the interest of some gay men in having HIV-seroconcordant partners within the psychosocial context of concurrent motivations for intimacy and sexual risk reduction. Data were obtained from semi-structured qualitative interviews with a racially/ethnically diverse sample of 32 gay men (16 HIV-positive and 16 HIV-negative) living in New York City who sought HIV-seroconcordant partners. Thematic analysis indicated that seroconcordant partner selection was strongly motivated by a desire to reduce sexual risk as well as the pursuit of multiple forms of intimacy. Affirmative experiences in seroconcordant relationships and goals for future long-term relationships also informed men's current partner selection practices. When seeking seroconcordant partners, men reported key junctures and disjunctures between motivations for intimacy and interests in risk reduction. Our findings suggest that HIV prevention efforts will have greater relevance if they address broader motivational concerns for partner selection and serosorting, including the pursuit of intimacy.

  2. Quantitative risk assessment: is more complex always better? Simple is not stupid and complex is not always more correct.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zwietering, Marcel H

    2009-08-31

    In quantitative risk assessments a large variety of complexities can be found, from simple and deterministic to very extensive and stochastic. This publication advocates that both simple and complex approaches have their value and should be done in parallel. The simple analysis gives much insight and can help to detect main factors and potential errors in the complex analysis. Extensive analysis with increased complexity suggests better precision but might not increase the accuracy, due to the uncertainty in the additional parameters. However, complex analysis supplies more confidence in certain phenomena and might also increase insight. This is shown with two examples. The first is the effectiveness of sampling plans for powdered infant formula, for factories operating at various levels of contamination. The results of a simple determination, an analysis including a within batch variability and an analysis including both within batch and between batch variability will be compared. The last approach has as advantage that apart from determining the probability of rejection of a batch, it can determine also the reduction of the health risk in the population following a certain sampling plan; it is more complex but it also does bring additional information. However the conclusions still contain large uncertainty, due to the difficulty of obtaining realistic values of the within batch and between batch variability. The second example is dose-response relations comparing the exponential model (one parameter), the beta-Poisson model (two parameters) and the Weibull-gamma model (three parameters). The conclusion is not that simple is best, but that simple is not stupid, and provides valuable information. Complex, on the other hand, is not always by definition more correct, but also does have its merits.

  3. Quantitative Risk - Phase 1

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-03

    Army to select a design that joined three commercial off the shelf systems: an Army M48 Patton tank chassis , a radar, and a cannon. The three...2010 319. Dugas, C., Bengio, Y., Vincent, P., Denoncourt, G., Fournier, C., “Statistical Learning Algorithms Applied to Automobile Insurance

  4. Thoughts on applying existing toxicological understanding to risk assessment for major ions in fresh waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Recent research in our laboratories and many others have greatly increased understanding of the responses of freshwater organisms to increased concentrations of major geochemical ions (Na, K, Ca, Mg, Cl, SO4, HCO3) in laboratory toxicity tests, stream mesocosms, and in natural st...

  5. PERFORMANCE OF QUANTITATIVE ULTRASOUND AND SIX OSTEOPOROSIS RISK INDEXES IN MENOPAUSAL WOMEN: VALIDATION AND COMPARATIVE EVALUATION STUDY.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Imad GHOZLANI

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: A number of questionnaire-based systems and the use of portable quantitative ultrasound scanners (QUS have been devised in an attempt to produce a cost-effective method of screening for osteoporosis.Objective: to assess the sensitivity and specificity of different techniques and their ability to act as screening tools in relation to dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA.Methods: 295 white postmenopausal women aged over 60 were enrolled. Each subject completed a standardized questionnaire which permits the measure of six osteoporosis indexes and had bone mineral density (BMD measured using QUS and DXA. Sensitivity and specificity of the different techniques in relation to DXA were plotted as receiver-operating characteristic (ROC curves at DXA T-score total hip ≤ -2.5 (osteoporosis.Results: BUA sensitivity and specificity values were respectively 76.8% and 51.2% at the total hip. The optimal cut-off T-score for QUS was -2 at the total hip. The osteoporosis self-assessment tool (OST provided consistently the highest AUC (0.80 among the clinical tools and had the best sensitivity and specificity balance (90.2%-44.5%. OST negative likelihood ratio was 0.22.Conclusion: OST (based only on the weight and the age performed slightly better than QUS and other risk questionnaires in predicting low BMD at the total hip

  6. Using participatory risk mapping (PRM to identify and understand people's perceptions of crop loss to animals in Uganda.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amanda D Webber

    Full Text Available Considering how people perceive risks to their livelihoods from local wildlife is central to (i understanding the impact of crop damage by animals on local people and (ii recognising how this influences their interactions with, and attitudes towards, wildlife. Participatory risk mapping (PRM is a simple, analytical tool that can be used to identify and classify risk within communities. Here we use it to explore local people's perceptions of crop damage by wildlife and the animal species involved. Interviews (n = 93, n = 76 and seven focus groups were conducted in four villages around Budongo Forest Reserve, Uganda during 2004 and 2005. Farms (N = 129 were simultaneously monitored for crop loss. Farmers identified damage by wildlife as the most significant risk to their crops; risk maps highlighted its anomalous status compared to other anticipated challenges to agricultural production. PRM was further used to explore farmers' perceptions of animal species causing crop damage and the results of this analysis compared with measured crop losses. Baboons (Papio anubis were considered the most problematic species locally but measurements of loss indicate this perceived severity was disproportionately high. In contrast goats (Capra hircus were considered only a moderate risk, yet risk of damage by this species was significant. Surprisingly, for wild pigs (Potamochoerus sp, perceptions of severity were not as high as damage incurred might have predicted, although perceived incidence was greater than recorded frequency of damage events. PRM can assist researchers and practitioners to identify and explore perceptions of the risk of crop damage by wildlife. As this study highlights, simply quantifying crop loss does not determine issues that are important to local people nor the complex relationships between perceived risk factors. Furthermore, as PRM is easily transferable it may contribute to the identification and development of

  7. Business Conflict and Risk Regulation: Understanding the Influence of the Pesticide Industry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jansen, Kees

    2017-01-01

    Despite the criticism, frequent in the literature, of business influence on the formulation of pesticide risk regulation, there has been remarkably little systematic study of this practice. This article discusses Costa Rica pesticide producers’ business influence on global and national efforts to

  8. Risky Business: An Integrated Institutional Theory for Understanding High-Risk Decision Making in Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Lauren A.; Angulo, A. J.

    2018-01-01

    Lauren A. Turner and A. J. Angulo explore how institutional theory can be applied to explain variance in higher education organizational strategies. Given strong regulatory, normative, and cultural-cognitive pressures to conform, they ask, why do some colleges engage in high-risk decision making? To answer this, they bring together classic and…

  9. Understanding Depression in Adolescents: A Dynamic Psychosocial Web of Risk and Protective Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kassis, Wassilis; Artz, Sibylle; White, Jennifer

    2017-01-01

    Background: Adolescent depression has been recognized as a complex problem that presents a global public health challenge. Left undetected and untreated, depression can significantly reduce quality of life. Objective: The main purpose of this paper is to re-visit risk and protective factors for depression in adolescents with a specific focus on…

  10. Extrapolating understanding of food risk perceptions to emerging food safety cases

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kaptan, Gülbanu; Fischer, Arnout R.H.; Frewer, Lynn J.

    2017-01-01

    Important determinants of risk perceptions associated with foods are the extent to which the potential hazards are perceived to have technological or naturally occurring origins, together with the acute vs. chronic dimension in which the potential hazard is presented (acute or chronic). This

  11. Utilizing Toxicogenomic Data to Understand Chemical Mechanism of Action in Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    A recent National Academy of Sciences report pointed to the strong potential for genomic technologies to contribute to the risk assessment process. The report, however, also acknowledged that neither has the full impact of genomic technology been realized nor has it been broadly ...

  12. Parent/Student Risk and Protective Factors in Understanding Early Adolescent's Body Mass Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitzpatrick, Kevin M.; Willis, Don

    2016-01-01

    This article's aim is to examine correlates of middle school students' body mass index (BMI). Little research simultaneously has considered both child and parent correlates in predicting child's BMI; we examine the interrelationships between middle school students and their parent's risks and protective factors and their impact on the child's BMI.…

  13. Understanding human and organisational factors - Nuclear safety and at-risk organisations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernard, Benoit

    2014-01-01

    This book addresses human and organisational factors which are present at different moments of the lifetime of an at-risk installation (from design to dismantling). At-risk organisations are considered as firstly human systems, and the objective is then to highlight individual and collective mechanisms in these organisations. Several questions are addressed, notably the origins of at-risk behaviour, and the reasons of the repetition of errors by these organisations. A first chapter, while referring to examples, addresses the human dimension of safety: human and organisational factors as obstacles, normal accidents (Three Mile Island), accidents in high-reliability organisations (Chernobyl), identification of root causes (Tokai-mura), and social-technical approach to safety (Fukushima). By also referring to examples, the second chapter addresses how to analyse at-risk organisations: individual behaviours (case of naval and air transport accidents), team coordination (a fire, the Challenger accident), and organisational regulation (organisations forms and routines, explosion of BP Texas City, explosion of Columbia)

  14. Understanding Dysfunctional and Functional Family Behaviors for the At-Risk Adolescent.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Don; Martin, Maggie

    2000-01-01

    At-risk adolescents and their impact on families and society, as well as characteristics of both healthy and maladaptive families, are discussed. Cognitive distortions of dysfunctional adolescents and their effect on family members, along with methods for intervention and creating more healthy environments, are delineated from a systemic…

  15. Understanding gender, sexuality and HIV risk in HEIs: narratives of international post-graduate students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mathabo Khau

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Thirty years into the HIV&AIDS pandemic, the world is still striving to reduce new HIV infections and halve AIDS related deaths by 2015. However, sub-Saharan Africa still faces the burden of HIV infections as governments and private institutions try out different prevention strategies (UNAIDS 2011. Several scholars have argued that multiple concurrent sexual partnerships (MCSP pose the greatest risk for new HIV infections. Furthermore, research has also linked MCSPs to mobility and migration. This paper draws from the project ‘Sexual identities and HIV&AIDS: an exploration of international university students’ experiences” which employed memory work, photo-voice, drawings and focus group discussions with ten (5male and 5female Post Graduate international students at a South African university. Focussing on the data produced through memory work, I present university students’ lived-experience narratives of mobility and migration in relation to how they perceive MCSPs and HIV risk. The findings show how students construct their gendered and sexual identities in a foreign context and how these constructions intersect with their choices of sexual relationships and HIV risk. I argue from the findings that Higher Education Institutions should be treated as high risk ‘spaces of vulnerability’ and hence health support services and HIV intervention programming policies should be geared towards addressing such vulnerabilities in order to create sustainable teaching and learning environments that allow for all students to explore their full capabilities.

  16. Addressing business from a social-ecological perspective to understand and deal with risk and resilience

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Haywood, L

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available unanticipated risks to business operations due to the deterioration of social-ecological systems upon which they depend. The immediate action for business is how to relate to today’s challenges such as pollution, rising temperatures, water shortage and crop...

  17. Understanding Psychosocial and High-Risk Sexual Behaviors Among Detained Juveniles: A Descriptive Study Protocol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gates, Madison L; Staples-Horne, Michelle; Cartier, Jeanne; Best, Candace; Walker, Veronica; Schwartz, David; Yoo, Wonsuk

    2015-12-30

    African American women are disproportionately impacted by sexually transmitted infections (STIs), such as chlamydia and gonorrhea, which are known risk factors for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. STIs, particularly chlamydia and gonorrhea, are even more prevalent among young African American women with a juvenile detention history. The population with experiences with the criminal justice system has greater rates of STIs and is diagnosed more often with mental health issues, often related to sexual abuse or intimate partner violence, compared to peers who have not been detained by law enforcement. Psychosocial factors, especially those related to intimate relationships (ie, the imperativeness of being in a relationship and the power one has in their relationship), have emerged as important explanatory factors for acquiring STIs, including HIV, and a component of risk reduction interventions. To investigate more comprehensively the relationship between psychosocial risk factors and STIs, including HIV, as it relates to reduction and prevention of these diseases. The long-term goal is to improve the effectiveness of evidence-based interventions with a major focus on intimate relationship dynamics. This descriptive study surveys young women (ages 13-17) who have been detained (incarcerated) by a department of juvenile justice. In addition to being female and detained, eligibility criteria include being detained longer than 30 days and being free of cognitive impairments. This study will include young women from one juvenile detention center. The primary outcomes to be measured are STI knowledge, intimate relationship dynamics (ie, imperativeness and power), and high-risk sexual behaviors. High-risk sexual behaviors will be assessed using data extracted from health records. Preliminarily, we have received assent from 26 primarily young African American women. The majority of participants (81%) had inadequate knowledge about STIs, 52% perceived a lack of

  18. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for Escherichia coli O157 : H7, Salmonella, and Listeria monocytogenes in Leafy Green Vegetables Consumed at Salad Bars

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Franz, E.; Tromp, S.O.; Rijgersberg, H.; Fels-Klerx, van der H.J.

    2010-01-01

    Fresh vegetables are increasingly recognized as a source of foodborne outbreaks in many parts of the world. The purpose of this study was to conduct a quantitative microbial risk assessment for Escherichia coli O157:H7, Salmonella, and Listeria monocytogenes infection from consumption of leafy green

  19. Neighborhood contexts experienced by young Mexican-American women: enhancing our understanding of risk for early childbearing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Dawn M; Nuru-Jeter, Amani M

    2012-02-01

    Young Mexican-American women are disproportionately affected by teen pregnancy and early childbearing. While many of the studies that have investigated this population's high risk for early childbearing have focused predominantly on micro-level factors, a growing body of research has demonstrated the importance of neighborhood-level factors in shaping risk for this outcome. In order to elucidate the role of neighborhood context with regards to early childbearing among adolescent Mexican-American women, it is important to understand what these young women consider to be their neighborhood context and how they experience these contexts. This study utilized a mixed-methods design incorporating participatory photography, photo-elicitation, and focus groups in order to gain a more nuanced understanding of how neighborhood context is conceptualized and experienced by Mexican-American young women, and how these experiences may influence risk for early childbearing. Major findings include: (1) participants view the blocks on which they live as their neighborhood, but their exposure to neighborhood context extends beyond these blocks and includes the transient spaces they move through daily; and (2) within their neighborhood contexts, participants are influenced by experiences of discrimination and the presence of gangs and violence. These findings point to the importance of neighborhood-level factors in the lives of adolescent Mexican-American women, and may be used to inform future studies looking at the role of neighborhood context in shaping risk for early childbearing among this population.

  20. Applying Ecodevelopmental Theory and the Theory of Reasoned Action to Understand HIV Risk Behaviors Among Hispanic Adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortega, Johis; Huang, Shi; Prado, Guillermo

    2012-01-03

    HIV/AIDS is listed as one of the top 10 reasons for the death of Hispanics between the ages of 15 and 54 in the United States. This cross sectional, descriptive secondary study proposed that using both the systemic (ecodevelopmental) and the individually focused (theory of reasoned action) theories together would lead to an increased understanding of the risk and protective factors that influence HIV risk behaviors in this population. The sample consisted of 493 Hispanic adolescent 7th and 8th graders and their immigrant parents living in Miami, Florida. Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) was used for the data analysis. Family functioning emerged as the heart of the model, embedded within a web of direct and mediated relationships. The data support the idea that family can play a central role in the prevention of Hispanic adolescents' risk behaviors.

  1. A Generic Quantitative Risk Assessment Framework for the Entry of Bat-Borne Zoonotic Viruses into the European Union.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robin R L Simons

    Full Text Available Bat-borne viruses have been linked to a number of zoonotic diseases; in 2014 there have been human cases of Nipah virus (NiV in Bangladesh and Ebola virus in West and Central Africa. Here we describe a model designed to provide initial quantitative predictions of the risk of entry of such viruses to European Union (EU Member States (MSs through four routes: human travel, legal trade (e.g. fruit and animal products, live animal movements and illegal importation of bushmeat. The model utilises available datasets to assess the movement via these routes between individual countries of the world and EU MSs. These data are combined with virus specific data to assess the relative risk of entry between EU MSs. As a case study, the model was parameterised for NiV. Scenario analyses showed that the selection of exporting countries with NiV and potentially contaminated trade products were essential to the accuracy of all model outputs. Uncertainty analyses of other model parameters identified that the model expected number of years to an introduction event within the EU was highly susceptible to the prevalence of NiV in bats. The relative rankings of the MSs and routes, however, were more robust. The UK, the Netherlands and Germany were consistently the most likely points of entry and the ranking of most MSs varied by no more than three places (maximum variation five places. Legal trade was consistently the most likely route of entry, only falling below human travel when the estimate of the prevalence of NiV in bats was particularly low. Any model-based calculation is dependent on the data available to feed into the model and there are distinct gaps in our knowledge, particularly in regard to various pathogen/virus as well as host/bat characteristics. However, the strengths of this model lie in the provision of relative comparisons of risk among routes and MSs. The potential for expansion of the model to include other routes and viruses and the possibility

  2. A Generic Quantitative Risk Assessment Framework for the Entry of Bat-Borne Zoonotic Viruses into the European Union.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simons, Robin R L; Horigan, Verity; Gale, Paul; Kosmider, Rowena D; Breed, Andrew C; Snary, Emma L

    2016-01-01

    Bat-borne viruses have been linked to a number of zoonotic diseases; in 2014 there have been human cases of Nipah virus (NiV) in Bangladesh and Ebola virus in West and Central Africa. Here we describe a model designed to provide initial quantitative predictions of the risk of entry of such viruses to European Union (EU) Member States (MSs) through four routes: human travel, legal trade (e.g. fruit and animal products), live animal movements and illegal importation of bushmeat. The model utilises available datasets to assess the movement via these routes between individual countries of the world and EU MSs. These data are combined with virus specific data to assess the relative risk of entry between EU MSs. As a case study, the model was parameterised for NiV. Scenario analyses showed that the selection of exporting countries with NiV and potentially contaminated trade products were essential to the accuracy of all model outputs. Uncertainty analyses of other model parameters identified that the model expected number of years to an introduction event within the EU was highly susceptible to the prevalence of NiV in bats. The relative rankings of the MSs and routes, however, were more robust. The UK, the Netherlands and Germany were consistently the most likely points of entry and the ranking of most MSs varied by no more than three places (maximum variation five places). Legal trade was consistently the most likely route of entry, only falling below human travel when the estimate of the prevalence of NiV in bats was particularly low. Any model-based calculation is dependent on the data available to feed into the model and there are distinct gaps in our knowledge, particularly in regard to various pathogen/virus as well as host/bat characteristics. However, the strengths of this model lie in the provision of relative comparisons of risk among routes and MSs. The potential for expansion of the model to include other routes and viruses and the possibility of rapid

  3. Alcohol Use and Sexual Risk Behavior among College Students: Understanding Gender and Ethnic Differences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randolph, Mary E.; Torres, Hector; Gore-Felton, Cheryl; Lloyd, Bronwyn; McGarvey, Elizabeth L.

    2015-01-01

    Objectives The purpose of the current study was to assess the role of gender and ethnicity in the relationship between alcohol use and risky sexual behavior. Method Sexually active college students (n = 425) reported on alcohol expectancies, perceived risk of HIV, and drinking and sexual behavior in the context of a larger health behavior survey. Results Approximately one-third of participants reported binge drinking 3 or more times in the past two weeks. African American women reported less drinking and less positive alcohol expectancies than other women. Older men engaged more often than younger men in binge drinking and reported more sexual partners in the past year. Younger age and greater perceived risk for HIV were positively associated with condom use for both women and men. Conclusion Collectively, these findings suggest that alcohol abuse and HIV prevention efforts among young adults need to consider gender, ethnicity, and age. PMID:19253158

  4. Military Suicide: Developing an Understanding of Basic Issues to Provide a Lower Risk Force

    Science.gov (United States)

    prevention programs may not fully address the underlying mental health issues associated with the young adult population. As a result, the services may be inadvertently recruiting service members with increased risk....preventing suicides for currently serving service members. An exploration of available research and demographic data identifies specific...populations present specific trends in behavior and demographics that lead to suicidal behaviors. The research suggests that a significant proportion

  5. Understanding Psychosocial and High-Risk Sexual Behaviors Among Detained Juveniles: A Descriptive Study Protocol

    OpenAIRE

    Gates, Madison L; Staples-Horne, Michelle; Cartier, Jeanne; Best, Candace; Walker, Veronica; Schwartz, David; Yoo, Wonsuk

    2015-01-01

    Background African American women are disproportionately impacted by sexually transmitted infections (STIs), such as chlamydia and gonorrhea, which are known risk factors for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. STIs, particularly chlamydia and gonorrhea, are even more prevalent among young African American women with a juvenile detention history. The population with experiences with the criminal justice system has greater rates of STIs and is diagnosed more often with mental health ...

  6. Understanding common risk analysis problems leads to better E and P decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, M.B.

    1994-01-01

    Many petroleum geologists, engineers and managers who have been introduced to petroleum risk analysis doubt that probability theory actually works in practice. Discovery probability estimates for exploration prospects always seem to be more optimistic than after-the-fact results. In general, probability estimates seem to be plucked from the air without any objective basis. Because of subtleties in probability theories, errors may result in applying risk analysis to real problems. Four examples have been selected to illustrate how misunderstanding in applying risk analysis may lead to incorrect decisions. Examples 1 and 2 show how falsely assuming statistical independence distorts probability calculations. Example 1 and 2 show how falsely assuming statistical independence distorts probability calculations. Example 3 discusses problems with related variable using the Monte Carlo method. Example 4 shows how subsurface data yields a probability value that is superior to a simple statistical estimate. The potential mistakes in the following examples would go unnoticed in analyses in most companies. Lack of objectivity and flawed theory would be blamed when fault actually would lies with incorrect application of basic probability principles

  7. Linking electronic health records with community-level data to understand childhood obesity risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomayko, E J; Flood, T L; Tandias, A; Hanrahan, L P

    2015-12-01

    Environmental and socioeconomic factors should be considered along with individual characteristics when determining risk for childhood obesity. To assess relationships and interactions among the economic hardship index (EHI) and race/ethnicity, age and sex in regard to childhood obesity rates in Wisconsin children using an electronic health record dataset. Data were collected using the University of Wisconsin (UW) Public Health Information Exchange database, which links electronic health records with census-derived community-level data. Records from 53,775 children seen at UW clinics from 2007 to 2012 were included. Mixed-effects modelling was used to determine obesity rates and the interaction of EHI with covariates (race/ethnicity, age, sex). When significant interactions were determined, linear regression analyses were performed for each subgroup (e.g. by age groups). The overall obesity rate was 11.7% and significant racial/ethnic disparities were detected. Childhood obesity was significantly associated with EHI at the community level (r = 0.62, P childhood obesity risk in some, but not all, races and ethnicities. Furthermore, the impact of EHI on obesity may be compounded over time. Our findings demonstrate the utility of linking electronic health information with census data to rapidly identify community-specific risk factors in a cost-effective manner. © 2014 World Obesity.

  8. Development of a Model for Quantitative Assessment of Risks and Identification of Threats in Anti-Crisis Management of a Machine-Building Enterprise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kozyk Vasyl V.

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the article is to develop a model for quantitative assessment of risks in anti-crisis management of a machine-building enterprise. The quantitative assessment will allow to identify among the risks the threats that can be considered as catastrophic risks. To assess the integral risk of anti-crisis management of the enterprise, there used a process approach distinguishing the process of anti-crisis management activity and the process of implementation of the anti-crisis program. Within the framework of the process the types of activity are singled out, for each of them risks are identified with revealing their reasons. There built a fuzzy hierarchical model comprising the following elements: terminal nodes — indicators (factors of risks; non-terminal nodes — separate risks that are characteristic for the processes and risks of each process as a whole; root of the tree — the integral risk of anti-crisis management. The expediency of building a hierarchical fuzzy model, within which conclusions are formed for intermediate variables, is substantiated. Based on the own research and taking into account the opinion of experts, the parameters of the trapezoidal membership functions for assessing indicators and risks are determined. Fuzzy bases of knowledge about the correlation are formed using the Mamdani algorithm. The adequacy of the model is estimated on the basis of the learning sample. The built fuzzy model makes it possible to obtain risk assessment based on the set values of the indicators, thus providing an analysis of the sensitivity of risks to various factors. It is easily adjusted to other conditions and types of economic activity of the enterprise.

  9. Understanding Perceptions and Practices for Zambian Adults in Western Province at Risk for Hypertension: An Exploratory Descriptive Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oelke, Nelly D; Rush, Kathy L; Goma, Fastone M; Barker, Jessica; Marck, Patricia; Pedersen, Chloe

    2015-07-08

    Hypertension is an important public health issue in Zambia. Despite the need for early detection, treatment, and ongoing monitoring, there is little documented research on hypertension in Zambia. The study aims were to: 1) better understand risk factors for hypertension in urban and rural communities in Mongu and Limulunga Districts, Western Province; 2) identify current health practices for hypertension and prevention in these communities; and 3) explore intersections between culture and hypertension perceptions and practices for study participants. A mixed methods approach was used; 203 adults completed surveys including demographics, anthropometric measures, blood pressure (BP), physicial activity, diet, and salt intake at five health check stations. Two focus groups were conducted with rural and urban community members to better understand their perspectives on hypertension. The prevalence of hypertension was 32.8% for survey participants. A further 24.6% had pre-hypertension. The mean total weight of salt added to food was nearly double the WHO recommendation with women adding significantly more salt to food than men. Significant differences in waist circumference were observed between men and women with men at low risk and women at substantialy high risk. In focus groups, participants cited westernized diets, lack of physical activity, stress, psychological factors, and urbanization as causative factors for hypertension. Participants lacked understanding of BP medications, healthy lifestyles, adherence to treatment, and ongoing monitoring. Focus group participants mentioned challenges in obtaining treatment for hypertension and desired to be active contributors in creating solutions. They recommended that government priorize hypertension initiatives that increase access to health education to reduce risk, enhance early detection, and support lifestyle changes and medication adherence. Our findings suggest that policy-makers need to engage communities more

  10. Childhood psychopathology in children of women with eating disorders: understanding risk mechanisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Micali, Nadia; Stahl, Daniel; Treasure, Janet; Simonoff, Emily

    2014-01-01

    Very few studies have investigated psychopathology in children of mothers with eating disorders (ED). We aimed to determine the effect of maternal ED on childhood psychopathology in a large population-based cohort and investigate relevant risk pathways using structural equation modeling (SEM). Data on emotional and behavioral problems at 3½ years were obtained prospectively on 8,622 children from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC). Children of exposed women who self-reported lifetime anorexia nervosa (AN, N = 193) or bulimia nervosa (BN, N = 158) in pregnancy were compared with children of unexposed women (N = 8,271) using linear and logistic regression models. SEM was used to determine best-fitting risk models by child gender. There was evidence that girls of AN women were more likely to have emotional, conduct, and hyperactivity disorders [Odds Ratio (OR): 1.7 (95% Confidence Intervals 1.0-3.0); OR: 2.2 (1.2-4.0); OR: 1.8 (1.1-3.1), respectively] and boys of AN women to have emotional disorders compared with unexposed [OR: 2.0(1.2-3.4)]. Girls of women with BN were more likely to show hyperactivity [OR: 1.7 (1.0-3.1)]; and boys to show emotional and conduct disorders compared with unexposed [OR: 2.2 (1.2-3.9); OR: 2.4 (1.4-4.2), respectively]. SEM models showed that pregnancy anxiety and depression mediated the effect of maternal ED on child psychopathology. Maternal ED are associated with different childhood psychopathology outcomes in boys and girls. Pregnancy anxiety and depression and active ED symptoms are important mediators of risk and are preventable; the direct effect of maternal lifetime ED was small. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry © 2013 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

  11. Stratospheric controlled perturbation experiment: a small-scale experiment to improve understanding of the risks of solar geoengineering.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dykema, John A; Keith, David W; Anderson, James G; Weisenstein, Debra

    2014-12-28

    Although solar radiation management (SRM) through stratospheric aerosol methods has the potential to mitigate impacts of climate change, our current knowledge of stratospheric processes suggests that these methods may entail significant risks. In addition to the risks associated with current knowledge, the possibility of 'unknown unknowns' exists that could significantly alter the risk assessment relative to our current understanding. While laboratory experimentation can improve the current state of knowledge and atmospheric models can assess large-scale climate response, they cannot capture possible unknown chemistry or represent the full range of interactive atmospheric chemical physics. Small-scale, in situ experimentation under well-regulated circumstances can begin to remove some of these uncertainties. This experiment-provisionally titled the stratospheric controlled perturbation experiment-is under development and will only proceed with transparent and predominantly governmental funding and independent risk assessment. We describe the scientific and technical foundation for performing, under external oversight, small-scale experiments to quantify the risks posed by SRM to activation of halogen species and subsequent erosion of stratospheric ozone. The paper's scope includes selection of the measurement platform, relevant aspects of stratospheric meteorology, operational considerations and instrument design and engineering.

  12. Satellite navigation—Amazing technology but insidious risk: Why everyone needs to understand space weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hapgood, Mike

    2017-04-01

    Global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) are one of the technological wonders of the modern world. Popularly known as satellite navigation, these systems have provided global access to precision location and timing services and have thereby stimulated advances in industry and consumer services, including all forms of transport, telecommunications, financial trading, and even the synchronization of power grids. But this wonderful technology is at risk from natural phenomena in the form of space weather. GNSS signals experience a slight delay as they pass through the ionosphere. This delay varies with space weather conditions and is the most significant source of error for GNSS. Scientific efforts to correct these errors have stimulated billions of dollars of investment in systems that provide accurate correction data for suitably equipped GNSS receivers in a growing number of regions around the world. This accuracy is essential for GNSS use by aircraft and ships. Space weather also provides a further occasional but severe risk to GNSS: an extreme space weather event may deny access to GNSS as ionospheric scintillation scrambles the radio signals from satellites, and rapid ionospheric changes outstrip the ability of error correction systems to supply accurate corrections. It is vital that GNSS users have a backup for such occasions, even if it is only to hunker down and weather the storm.

  13. Assessing understanding of individual risk and symptoms of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy in patients prescribed natalizumab for multiple sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rath, Louise; Vijiaratnam, Nirosen; Skibina, Olga

    2017-02-01

    Natalizumab, a monoclonal antibody directed against α4 integrin, is a highly efficacious treatment commonly used in relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis. Natalizumab is associated with the potentially fatal, rare, demyelinating, opportunistic brain infection, progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML). Prognosis and disability from PML are determined by early diagnosis. Written tools are mandated in Australia and other prescribing countries with the aim to help patients understand the risks associated with treatment and ensure familiarity with the early symptoms of PML. We aimed to assess if these tools achieve such an outcome. A cross-sectional survey was conducted using a convenience sample of multiple sclerosis patients prescribed natalizumab presenting to the infusion centre at a major tertiary hospital. Patients were offered a multi-choice questionnaire to assess their knowledge on the treatment risks and surveillance requirements of their therapy. Three specific questions were highlighted by the researchers as crucial to patient understanding of PML and defined as basic knowledge. A total of 48 patients in our hospital was prescribed natalizumab; 37 responded. A total of 16 (43.2%) patients answered all three basic knowledge questions correctly. There was no difference in the ability to answer these questions based on length of treatment or co-ownership knowledge between patients with base knowledge and without. Natalizumab is associated with an increased risk of PML. Early detection and treatment of PML results in improved patient outcomes. Patient knowledge and co-partnership in the utilisation of PML risk tools is relevant in ensuring early detection. Our findings question the ability of currently sanctioned tools to inform patients of basic knowledge of PML and their risk of developing PML. A future study with a repetitive education approach and repeating the questionnaire at multiple time points would be of interest. © 2016 Royal Australasian

  14. Understanding hydro-climatic drivers of infectious diarrheal diseases in South Asia and their projected risks from regional climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasan, M. A.; Akanda, A. S.; Jutla, A.; Huq, A.; Colwell, R. R.

    2017-12-01

    Diarrheal diseases remain a major threat to global public health and are the second largest cause of death for children under the age of five. Cholera and Rotavirus diarrhea together comprise more than two-thirds of the diarrheal morbidity in South Asia. Recent studies have shown strong influences of hydrologic processes and climatic variabilities on the onset, intensity, and seasonality of the outbreaks of these diseases. However, our understanding of the propagation and manifestation of these diseases in a changing climate in vulnerable regions of the world are still limited. In this study, we build on our understanding of the role of the hydro-climatic drivers of diarrheal diseases in South Asia in recent decades to project the probable risks of the diseases in this century using the climate projection scenarios from dynamically downscaled climate models. To build the current model, we conducted a multivariate logistic regression assessment using 34 climate indices to examine the role of temperature and rainfall extremes over the seasonality of rotavirus and cholera over a South Asian country, Bangladesh. We utilize the availability of long and reliable time-series of cholera and rotavirus from Bangladesh and conducted a temporal and spatial analysis derived from both ground and satellite observations. For projecting the future risks of the diseases, we used five bias-corrected Regional Climate Model (RCM) results of the CMIP5 series under the RCP 4.5 scenario. Cholera risk shows a significantly higher rate of increase compared to Rotavirus in Bangladesh in the 21st century. As the disease is significantly influenced by extreme rainfall, majority projections showed a significant increase in flood-driven cholera risk. Most RCMs suggest a warmer winter in future years, suggesting reduced risk for Rotavirus. However, as the dryness of the climate is also highly correlated with rotavirus epidemics, the incremental risk of the disease due to drier winters would

  15. Do you understand your risk? Liability and third-party evaluations in civil litigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gold, Liza H; Davidson, John E

    2007-01-01

    Many psychiatrists believe that there is little or no liability associated with conducting examinations at the request of a third party or with providing testimony in civil litigation. Case law has demonstrated otherwise. Psychiatrists conducting independent medical examinations (IMEs) may be vulnerable to tort lawsuits by either the evaluee or the third party who commissions the IME. In addition, breaches of legal or ethical conduct can lead to disciplinary action by state medical boards and professional organizations. Although immunity for certain types of forensic activities is available, such immunity is qualified and may not be applicable to evaluations and related testimony conducted for third parties. Understanding the liability associated with third-party evaluations will assist psychiatrists in minimizing their exposure.

  16. Understanding the potential risk to marine mammals from collision with tidal turbines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Copping, Andrea; Grear, Molly; Jepsen, Richard; Chartrand, Chris; Gorton, Alicia

    2017-09-01

    The advent of the marine renewable energy industry has raised questions, particularly for tidal turbines, about potential threats to populations of marine mammals. This research examines the sequence of behavioral events that lead up to a potential collision of a marine mammal with a tidal turbine, within the context of the physical environment, the attributes of the tidal device, and the biomechanical properties of a marine mammal that may resist injury from a tidal blade collision. There are currently no data available to determine the risk of collision to a marine mammal, and obtaining those data would be extremely difficult. The surrogate data examined in this research (likelihood of a marine mammal being in close proximity to a tidal turbine, biomechanics of marine mammal tissues, and engineering models) provide insight into the interaction.

  17. Proceedings of the adapting to climate change in Canada 2005 conference : understanding risks and building capacity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    This four-day conference provided a national forum for researchers and decision-makers from a variety of disciplines to share information and results on climate change. Sponsored by Natural Resources Canada's Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Program, the conference explored ways to improve knowledge of Canada's vulnerability to climate change, to better assess the benefits and risks of climate change and to examine policies and options through which decisions on adaptation can be made. Conference topics included issues such as global warming; sustainable development; climate change and agriculture; adaptation strategies; water, coastline and marine management and climate change; municipal level management and climate change; climate change and health issues; and many other topics related to climate change. The conference featured paper and poster presentations, opening remarks, and panel discussions. A total of 118 conference papers and 46 conference posters were presented at the conference of which 17 have been catalogued separately in this database. refs., tabs., figs

  18. Understanding the risks, managing life: genetic counselling between biopolitcs and society of control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruno Lucas Saliba de Paula

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to compare the genetic counselling (GC with the eugenic policies of the early twentieth century. We perform an analysis of how GC is portrayed by the Brazilian press as well as a theoretical discussion about the configurations of biopower in a biotechnological context. Our results indicate that while eugenics was practiced by States that disciplined individual conduct and regulated its populations to "improve the human race", the GC relates to the neoliberal governmentality’s and to the society of control rationalities. It happens because the GC takes place in a context in which government, market and experts modulate the probabilities and risks associated to individuals who, as "entrepreneurs of themselves", need to manage their genetic capital and are considered as customers and stakeholders, and not only patients and citizens.

  19. The Functional Resonance Analysis Method for a systemic risk based environmental auditing in a sinter plant: A semi-quantitative approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Patriarca, Riccardo; Di Gravio, Giulio; Costantino, Francesco; Tronci, Massimo

    2017-01-01

    Environmental auditing is a main issue for any production plant and assessing environmental performance is crucial to identify risks factors. The complexity of current plants arises from interactions among technological, human and organizational system components, which are often transient and not easily detectable. The auditing thus requires a systemic perspective, rather than focusing on individual behaviors, as emerged in recent research in the safety domain for socio-technical systems. We explore the significance of modeling the interactions of system components in everyday work, by the application of a recent systemic method, i.e. the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM), in order to define dynamically the system structure. We present also an innovative evolution of traditional FRAM following a semi-quantitative approach based on Monte Carlo simulation. This paper represents the first contribution related to the application of FRAM in the environmental context, moreover considering a consistent evolution based on Monte Carlo simulation. The case study of an environmental risk auditing in a sinter plant validates the research, showing the benefits in terms of identifying potential critical activities, related mitigating actions and comprehensive environmental monitoring indicators. - Highlights: • We discuss the relevance of a systemic risk based environmental audit. • We present FRAM to represent functional interactions of the system. • We develop a semi-quantitative FRAM framework to assess environmental risks. • We apply the semi-quantitative FRAM framework to build a model for a sinter plant.

  20. Understanding misunderstandings in invasion science: why experts don’t agree on common concepts and risk assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Franziska Humair

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the diverging opinions of academic experts, stakeholders and the public is important for effective conservation management. This is especially so when a consensus is needed for action to minimize future risks but the knowledge upon which to base this action is uncertain or missing. How to manage non-native, invasive species (NIS is an interesting case in point: the issue has long been controversial among stakeholders, but publicly visible, major disagreement among experts is recent.To characterize the multitude of experts’ understanding and valuation of non-native, NIS we performed structured qualitative interviews with 26 academic experts, 13 of whom were invasion biologists and 13 landscape experts. Within both groups, thinking varied widely, not only about basic concepts (e.g., non-native, invasive but also about their valuation of effects of NIS. The divergent opinions among experts, regarding both the overall severity of the problem in Europe and its importance for ecosystem services, contrasted strongly with the apparent consensus that emerges from scientific synthesis articles and policy documents. We postulate that the observed heterogeneity of expert judgments is related to three major factors: (1 diverging conceptual understandings, (2 lack of empirical information and high scientific uncertainties due to complexities and contingencies of invasion processes, and (3 missing deliberation of values. Based on theory from science studies, we interpret the notion of an NIS as a boundary object, i.e., concepts that have a similar but not identical meaning to different groups of experts and stakeholders. This interpretative flexibility of a concept can facilitate interaction across diverse groups but bears the risk of introducing misunderstandings. An alternative to seeking consensus on exact definitions and risk assessments would be for invasive species experts to acknowledge uncertainties and engage transparently with

  1. Death matters: understanding heroin/opiate overdose risk and testing potential to prevent deaths.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strang, John

    2015-07-01

    To describe work undertaken over a 20-year period, investigating overdose characteristics among survivors, effects of acute heroin administration, clustering of risk of overdose fatality and potential interventions to reduce this fatal outcome. Privileged-access interviewers obtained data from non-treatment as well as treatment samples; experimental study of drop in oxygen saturation following heroin/opiate injection; investigation of clusterings of death following prison release and treatment termination; and study of target populations as intervention work-force, including family as well as peers, and action research built into pilot implementation. Overdose has been experienced by about half of heroin/opiate misusers, with even higher proportions having witnessed an overdose, and with high levels of willingness to intervene. Heroin/opiates are associated with the majority of drug-related deaths, despite relative scarcity of use. Heroin injection causes a rapid drop in oxygen saturation, recovering only slowly over the next half hour. Deaths from drug overdose are greatly more likely on prison release and post-discharge from detoxification and other in-patient or residential settings. High levels of declared willingness to intervene are matched by active interventions. Both drug-using peers and family members show ability to improve knowledge and gain confidence from training. Audit study of take-home schemes finds approximately 10% of dispensed naloxone is used in real-life emergency situations. Overdose is experienced by most users, with heroin/opiates contributing disproportionately to drug overdose deaths. High-risk times (e.g. after prison release) are now clearly identified. Peers and family are a willing potential intervention work-force, but are rarely trained or given pre-supply of naloxone. Large-scale naloxone provision (e.g. national across Scotland and Wales) is now being delivered, while large-scale randomized trials (e.g. N-ALIVE prison

  2. The 'subjective' risk mapping: understanding of a technical risk representation by a professional group; La cartographie 'subjective' des risques: comprendre la representation d'un risque technique par un groupe professionnel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bertin, H.; Deleuze, G. [Electricite de France (EDF-RD), Management des Risques Industriels, 92 - Clamart (France)

    2006-07-01

    The paper presents the application of a particular way to make risk maps, called 'subjective risk mapping'. It has been used to understand how the risk of tube rupture under pressure is understood, defined, and set in perspective with other risks in a professional group working in an industrial plant. (authors)

  3. Understanding the Relationship Between Sports-Relevant Gambling and Being At-Risk for a Gambling Problem Among American Adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marchica, Loredana; Zhao, Yaxi; Derevensky, Jeffrey; Ivoska, William

    2017-06-01

    Fantasy sports is a growing industry with a reported 56.8 million individuals participating in the United States and Canada alone in 2015. Whereas this activity has attracted considerable public attention, little research has examined its impact on adolescents in spite of their high rates of gambling. The current study examined the relationship between regular participation (more than once a month) in sport-relevant gambling activities among adolescents and those identified as being at-risk for a gambling problem. Questionnaire responses were collected from high school students (N = 6818; 49 % male) in Wood County, Ohio, United States. Statistical analyses revealed that regular involvement in sports betting, fantasy sports betting, and daily fantasy sports betting among adolescents was associated with a higher risk of gambling problems. Further, although males participate more frequently in these activities, females who participate have a stronger likelihood of being at-risk. Students aged 16-19 years old are at a higher risk for developing a gambling problem compared to younger adolescents when regularly engaging in sports-related gambling. Moreover, regularly participating in daily fantasy sports is the strongest predictor of at-risk gambling behavior in 13-15 year old students. A hierarchical logistic regression supports that controlling for gender and age, all forms of sport-relevant gambling activities are significant predictors of at-risk gambling. This study contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of the impact of sports betting and fantasy sports on adolescents and establishes an initial step for future studies to further investigate these relationships.

  4. Dietary fat, body weight, and cancer: contributions of studies in rodents to understanding these cancer risk factors in humans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, A E; Sullivan, L M; Hafer, L J

    1999-12-01

    Understanding diet and energy balance as risk factors for breast, colon, and other cancers requires information on the contribution of each factor and of interactions among factors to cancer risk. Rodent models for breast cancer provide extensive data on effects of dietary fat and calories, energy balance, body weight gain, and physical activity on tumor development. Analyses of the combined data from many studies have shown clearly that quality and quantity of dietary fat and energy balance contribute independently to increased mammary gland tumorigenesis. These findings were seen in female rats fed diets high in fat (35-40% of calories) compared to rats fed control diets, with approximately 10% of calories as fat (Fay and Freedman, 1997, Breast Cancer Res. Treat. 46, 215-223). The methods used permit comparison of experimental and epidemiological data, and they may be useful in extrapolating between species and developing public health recommendations. In addition to the contributions of lifetime-diet composition, intake, energy balance, and physical activity to cancer risk, there are questions about the timing and duration of alterations in these factors and about the "dose-response" characteristics of cancer risk to the factors. Endocrine mechanisms may be significant in mammary gland tumor risk, but experimental and epidemiological data indicate that cancers at other sites, such as colon and liver, also are influenced by the factors listed. Other diet and lifestyle factors that influence energy, or specifically fat, metabolism may also affect risk for cancers that are promoted by increased intake of fat and calories. Studies of separate and interactive effects of dietary fat, black tea, weight gain, and mammary gland tumorigenesis (Rogers, et al, 1998, Carcinogenesis 19, 1269-1273) have been analyzed. Using adjustment of carcinogenesis endpoints for body weight, tumor burden, and latency, they were found to be related to weight gain within treatment groups in

  5. Effects of Message Framing on Influenza Vaccination: Understanding the Role of Risk Disclosure, Perceived Vaccine Efficacy, and Felt Ambivalence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sungsu; Pjesivac, Ivanka; Jin, Yan

    2017-10-20

    The current study examined the effects of framing in promotional health messages on intention to vaccinate against seasonal influenza virus. The findings of an experimental study (N = 86) indicated that exposure to both benefits and side effects of vaccination (gain-framed with risk disclosure message) led to lower intention to receive the flu vaccine. This relationship was mediated by both perceived vaccine efficacy and felt ambivalence in a serial order, revealing the underlying psychological mechanisms important for understanding health-related behaviors. Theoretical implications of constructing sub-framed messages are discussed and the concept of second-order framing is introduced.

  6. Understanding high traffic injury risks for children in low socioeconomic areas: a qualitative study of parents' views.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christie, N; Ward, H; Kimberlee, R; Towner, E; Sleney, J