WorldWideScience

Sample records for understand climate linkages

  1. Understanding climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    In this article the following question is answered. What is the climate? What factors do determine our climate? What is solar radiation? How does solar radiation relate to the earth's energy? What is greenhouse effect? What role does the greenhouse effect play in the global ecosystem? How does the water cycle affect climate? What is drought? What role do oceans play in influencing climate. (author)

  2. Understanding climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fellous, J.L.; Gautier, C.; Andre, J.C.; Balstad, R.; Boucher, O.; Brasseur, G.; Chahine, M.T.; Chanin, M.L.; Ciais, P.; Corell, W.; Duplessy, J.C.; Hourcade, J.C.; Jouzel, J.; Kaufman, Y.J.; Laval, K.; Le Treut, H.; Minster, J.F.; Moore, B. III; Morel, P.; Rasool, S.I.; Remy, F.; Smith, R.C.; Somerville, R.C.J.; Wood, E.F.; Wood, H.; Wunsch, C.

    2007-01-01

    Climatic change is gaining ground and with no doubt is stimulated by human activities. It is therefore urgent to better understand its nature, importance and potential impacts. The chapters of this book have been written by US and French experts of the global warming question. After a description of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, GIEC in French) consensus, they present the past and present researches on each of the main component of the climate system, on the question of climatic change impacts and on the possible answers. The conclusion summarizes the results of each chapter. Content: presentation of the IPCC; greenhouse effect, radiation balance and clouds; atmospheric aerosols and climatic change; global water cycle and climate; influence of climatic change on the continental hydrologic cycle; ocean and climate; ice and climate; global carbon cycle; about some impacts of climatic change on Europe and the Atlantic Ocean; interaction between atmospheric chemistry and climate; climate and society, the human dimension. (J.S.)

  3. Identifying and Mapping Linkages between Actors in the Climate ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Promoting innovations in climate change requires innovation partnerships and linkages and also creating an enabling environment for actors. The paper reviewed available information on the identification and mapping of linkages between actors in the climate change innovation system. The findings showed different ...

  4. Towards a mechanistic understanding of the linkages between PETM climate modulation and stratigraphy, as discerned from the Piceance Basin, CO, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barefoot, E. A.; Nittrouer, J. A.; Foreman, B.; Moodie, A. J.; Dickens, G. R.

    2017-12-01

    The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) was a period of rapid climatic change when global temperatures increased by 5-8˚C in as little as 5 ka. It has been hypothesized that by drastically enhancing the hydrologic cycle, this temperature change significantly perturbed landscape dynamics over the ensuing 200 ka. Much of the evidence documenting hydrological variability derives from studies of the stratigraphic record, which is interpreted to encode a system-clearing event in fluvial systems worldwide during and after the PETM. For example, in the Piceance Basin of Western Colorado, it is hypothesized that intensification of monsoons due to PETM warming caused an increase in sediment flux to the basin. The resulting stratigraphy records a modulation of the sedimentation rate, where the PETM interval is represented by a laterally extensive sheet sand positioned between units dominated by floodplain muds. The temporal interval, the sediment provenance history, as well as the tectonic history of the PETM in the Piceance Basin are all well-constrained, leaving climate as the most significant allogenic forcing in the Piceance Basin during the PETM. However, the precise nature of landscape change that link climate forcing by the PETM to modulation of the sedimentation rate in this basin remains to be demonstrated. Here, we present a simple stratigraphic numerical model coupled with a conceptual source-to-sink framework to test the impact of a suite of changing upstream boundary conditions on the fluvial system. In the model, climate-related variables force changes in flow characteristics such as sediment transport, slope, and velocity, which determine the resultant floodplain stratigraphy. The model is based on mathematical relations that link bankfull geometry and water discharge, impacting the lateral migration rate of the channel, sediment transport rate, and avulsion frequency, thereby producing a cross-section of basin stratigraphy. In this way, we simulate a

  5. Applying Topographic Classification, Based on the Hydrological Process, to Design Habitat Linkages for Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongwon Mo

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The use of biodiversity surrogates has been discussed in the context of designing habitat linkages to support the migration of species affected by climate change. Topography has been proposed as a useful surrogate in the coarse-filter approach, as the hydrological process caused by topography such as erosion and accumulation is the basis of ecological processes. However, some studies that have designed topographic linkages as habitat linkages, so far have focused much on the shape of the topography (morphometric topographic classification with little emphasis on the hydrological processes (generic topographic classification to find such topographic linkages. We aimed to understand whether generic classification was valid for designing these linkages. First, we evaluated whether topographic classification is more appropriate for describing actual (coniferous and deciduous and potential (mammals and amphibians habitat distributions. Second, we analyzed the difference in the linkages between the morphometric and generic topographic classifications. The results showed that the generic classification represented the actual distribution of the trees, but neither the morphometric nor the generic classification could represent the potential animal distributions adequately. Our study demonstrated that the topographic classes, according to the generic classification, were arranged successively according to the flow of water, nutrients, and sediment; therefore, it would be advantageous to secure linkages with a width of 1 km or more. In addition, the edge effect would be smaller than with the morphometric classification. Accordingly, we suggest that topographic characteristics, based on the hydrological process, are required to design topographic linkages for climate change.

  6. Linkages among Key Actors in the Climate Change and Food ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study used the innovation system approach to ascertain the intensity and trends of linkages among key actors in the climate change and food security innovation system in Nigeria, Sierra Leone and Liberia. Data were collected through the use of semi structured interview schedule, key informant interviews and focus ...

  7. Review of scientific linkages and interactions between climate change and air quality, with implications for air quality management in South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Thambiran, Tirusha

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available In recent years there has been considerable advancement in our scientific understanding of the linkages and interactions between climate change and air quality. A warmer, evolving climate is likely to have severe consequences for air quality due...

  8. Climate change 101 : understanding and responding to global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    To inform the climate change dialogue, the Pew Center on Global Climate Change and the Pew Center on the States have developed a series of brief reports entitled Climate Change 101: Understanding and Responding to Global Climate Change. These reports...

  9. Linkages between the Urban Environment and Earth's Climate System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepherd, J. Marshall; Jin, Menglin

    2003-01-01

    Urbanization is one of the extreme cases of land use change. Although currently only 1.2% of the land is considered urban, the spatial coverage and density of cities are expected to rapidly increase in the near future. It is estimated that by the year 2025 60% of the world s population will live in cities (UNFP, 1999). Though urban areas are local in scale, human activity in urban environments has impacts at local, to global scale by changing atmospheric composition; impacting components of the water cycle; and modifying the carbon cycle 2nd ecosystems. For example, urban dwellers are undoubtedly familiar with "high" ozone pollution days, flash flooding in city streets, or heat stress on summer days. However, our understanding of urbanization on the total Earth-climate system is incomplete. Better understanding of how the Earth s weather, oceans, and land work together and the influence of the urban environment on this climate system is critical. This paper highlights some of the major and current issues involving interactions between urban environments and the Earth's climate system. It also captures some of the most current thinking and findings of the authors and key experts in the field.

  10. Transformational leadership climate : Performance linkages, mechanisms, and boundary conditions at the organizational level

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Menges, J.; Walter, F.; Vogel, B.; Bruch, H.

    2011-01-01

    Transformational leadership (TFL) climate describes the degree to which leaders throughout an organization engage in TFL behaviors. In this study, we investigate performance linkages, mechanisms, and boundary conditions of TFL climate at the organizational level of analysis. In a sample of 158

  11. A review of scientifc linkages and interactions between climate change and air quality, with implications for air quality management in South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tirusha Thambiran

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available In recent years there has been considerable advancement in our scientifc understanding of the linkages and interactions between climate change and air quality. A warmer, evolving climate is likely to have severe consequences for air quality due to impacts on pollution sources and meteorology. Climate-induced changes to sources of tropospheric ozone precursor gases and to atmospheric circulation are likely to lead to changes in both the concentration and dispersion of near-surface ozone that could act to offset improvements in air quality. The control of air pollutants through air quality management is also likely to impact on climate change, with reductions in ozone, particulate matter and sulphur dioxide being of particular interest. The improved understanding of the relationship between air quality and climate change provides a scientific basis for policy interventions. After a review of the scientific linkages, the potential to include climate change considerations in air quality management planning processes in South Africa was examined.

  12. Understanding the Linkage between Charging Network Coverage and Charging Opportunity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Changzheng [ORNL; Lin, Zhenhong [ORNL; Kontou, Eleftheria [University of Florida, Gainesville; Wu, Xing [Lamar University

    2016-01-01

    Using GPS-based travel survey data, this paper estimates the relationship between public charging network coverage and charging opportunity, defined as the probability of being able to access public charging for a driver at one of his/her stops or at one travel day. Understanding this relationship is of important interests to the electric vehicle industry and government in determining appropriate charging infrastructure deployment level and estimating the impact of public charging on market adoption of electric vehicles. The analysis finds that drivers trip destinations concentrate on a few popular places. If top 1% of most popular places are installed with public chargers, on average, drivers will be able to access public charging at 20% of all their stops and 1/3 of their travel days; If 20% of most popular places are installed with public chargers, drivers will be able to access public charging at 89% of all their stops and 94% of their travel days. These findings are encouraging, implying charging network can be efficiently designed by concentrating at a few popular places while still providing a high level of charging opportunity.

  13. Integrated Climate Change Modelling and Policy Linkages for ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Climate change is influencing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather, exposing both people and economies to lost lives, productivity, and property. This project will help planners and policymakers respond more effectively by implementing climate-smart adaptive strategies. These strategies will serve to strengthen ...

  14. Advancing the climate agenda: Exploiting material and institutional linkages to develop a menu of policy options

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Asselt, H.D.; Gupta, J.; Biermann, F.

    2005-01-01

    The utilization of interlinkages of existing material and the strengthening and promotion of new institutional interlinkages can widen the climate change agenda through new and innovative policy and legal measures. Material linkages are inherent structural connections between policy domains that are

  15. Integrated Climate Change Modelling and Policy Linkages for ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    The project will consolidate the collective experience of CCW recipients from Africa, Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean to develop and test a framework designed to overcome the mismatch between supply-driven climate research and demand-driven planning and policy. The project team will identify leading ...

  16. Above- and belowground linkages in Sphagnum peatland: climate warming affects plant-microbial interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jassey, Vincent E J; Chiapusio, Geneviève; Binet, Philippe; Buttler, Alexandre; Laggoun-Défarge, Fatima; Delarue, Frédéric; Bernard, Nadine; Mitchell, Edward A D; Toussaint, Marie-Laure; Francez, André-Jean; Gilbert, Daniel

    2013-03-01

    Peatlands contain approximately one third of all soil organic carbon (SOC). Warming can alter above- and belowground linkages that regulate soil organic carbon dynamics and C-balance in peatlands. Here we examine the multiyear impact of in situ experimental warming on the microbial food web, vegetation, and their feedbacks with soil chemistry. We provide evidence of both positive and negative impacts of warming on specific microbial functional groups, leading to destabilization of the microbial food web. We observed a strong reduction (70%) in the biomass of top-predators (testate amoebae) in warmed plots. Such a loss caused a shortening of microbial food chains, which in turn stimulated microbial activity, leading to slight increases in levels of nutrients and labile C in water. We further show that warming altered the regulatory role of Sphagnum-polyphenols on microbial community structure with a potential inhibition of top predators. In addition, warming caused a decrease in Sphagnum cover and an increase in vascular plant cover. Using structural equation modelling, we show that changes in the microbial food web affected the relationships between plants, soil water chemistry, and microbial communities. These results suggest that warming will destabilize C and nutrient recycling of peatlands via changes in above- and belowground linkages, and therefore, the microbial food web associated with mosses will feedback positively to global warming by destabilizing the carbon cycle. This study confirms that microbial food webs thus constitute a key element in the functioning of peatland ecosystems. Their study can help understand how mosses, as ecosystem engineers, tightly regulate biogeochemical cycling and climate feedback in peatlands. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  17. The linkage among ambulance transports, death and climate parameters in Asahikawa City, Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kataoka, Hiroaki; Mochimasu, Kazumi Dokai; Katayama, Akihiko; Kanda, Kanae Oda; Sakano, Noriko; Tanaka, Keiko; Miyatake, Nobuyuki

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the linkage among climate parameters, total ambulance transports and the number of deaths in Asahikawa City in northern Japan. Monthly data on total ambulance transports and the number of deaths from January 2004 to December 2011 were obtained from Asahikawa City Fire Department and the Asahikawa City official website. Climate parameters for the required period were also obtained from the Japan Meteorological Agency, Japan. To adjust for the population, we also used monthly population data on Asahikawa City. The linkage among climate parameters, total ambulance transports and the number of deaths was evaluated by ecological analysis. The mean air temperature in the Asahikawa area was 7.3 ± 10.1 °C. Total ambulance transports (/a hundred thousand people/day) and the number of deaths (/a hundred thousand people/day) were 10.0 ± 0.6 and 2.6 ± 0.3, respectively. Using quadratic curves, total ambulance transports and the number of deaths were weakly correlated with some climate parameters. The number of deaths was weakly and positively correlated with total ambulance transports. A weak linkage among climate parameters, total ambulance transports and the number of deaths was noted in Asahikawa City, Japan. However, these associations were not as high as expected.

  18. Understanding Controversies in Urban Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baron, Nina; Petersen, Lars Kjerulf

    2015-01-01

    This article explores the controversies that exist in urban climate change adaptation and how these controversies influence the role of homeowners in urban adaptation planning. A concrete SUDS project in a housing cooperative in Copenhagen has been used as a case study thereby investigating...... the multiple understandings “Sustainable Urban Drainages System’s” (SUDS). Several different perspectives are identified with regard to what are and what will become the main climate problems in the urban environment as well as what are considered to be the best responses to these problems. Building...... on the actor-network inspired theory of “urban green assemblages” we argue that at least three different assemblages can be identified in urban climate change adaptation. Each assemblage frames problems and responses differently, and thereby assigns different types of roles to homeowners. As climate change...

  19. Interweaving climate research and public understanding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Betts, A. K.

    2016-12-01

    For the past 10 years I have been using research into land-atmosphere-cloud coupling to address Vermont's need to understand climate change, and develop plans for greater resilience in the face of increasing severe weather. The research side has shown that the fraction of days with snow cover determines the cold season climate, because snow acts as a fast climate switch between non-overlapping climates with and without snow cover. Clouds play opposite roles in warm and cold seasons: surface cooling in summer and warming in winter. The later fall freeze-up and earlier spring ice-out on lakes, coupled to the earlier spring phenology, are clear markers both of a warming climate, as well as the large interannual variability. Severe flooding events have come with large-scale quasi-stationary weather patterns. This past decade I have given 230 talks to schools, business and professional groups, as well as legislative committees and state government. I have written 80 environmental columns for two Vermont newspapers, as part of a weekly series I helped start in 2008. Commentaries and interviews on radio and TV enable me to explain directly the issues we face, as the burning of fossil fuels destabilizes the climate system. The public in Vermont is eager to learn and understand these issues since many have roots in the land; while professional groups need all the information and guidance possible to prepare for the future. My task as a scientist is to map out what we know in ways that can readily be grasped in terms of past experience, even though the climate system is already moving outside this range - and at the same time outline general principles and hopeful strategies for dealing with global and local climate change.

  20. Understanding Care Linkage and Engagement Across 15 Adolescent Clinics: Provider Perspectives and Implications for Newly HIV-Infected Youth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Philbin, Morgan M; Tanner, Amanda E; DuVal, Anna; Ellen, Jonathan M; Kapogiannis, Bill; Fortenberry, J Dennis

    2017-04-01

    The National HIV/AIDS Strategy emphasizes rapid care linkage and engagement for HIV-infected individuals, though many adolescents are never tested, delay entering care, and frequently drop out. We conducted 183 staff interviews at 15 adolescent medicine clinics (baseline, n = 64; Year 1, n = 60; Year 2, = 59). We used a constant comparative thematic method to examine how providers approached and discussed care linkage/engagement. Qualitative analyses revealed differences in providers' conceptualizations of linkage and engagement. Providers saw linkage as mechanistic and health system driven. It was defined by number of clinic visits and involved relatively little youth agency. In contrast, providers defined engagement by youths' responsibility and participation in their own care. Linkage and engagement are related but distinct aspects of care that require different resources and levels of staff involvement. Integrating an understanding of these differences into future interventions will allow clinic staff to help youth improve long-term health outcomes.

  1. Climate and development: enhancing impact through stronger linkages in the implementation of the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomez-Echeverri, Luis

    2018-05-13

    One of the greatest achievements in the global negotiations of 2015 that delivered the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development or Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Paris Agreement on climate change is that, for the first time, the linkages between climate and development were enshrined in each of the documents. This was done in recognition that climate change and development need to be addressed together in order not only to avoid harmful trade-offs and high costs, particularly for poorer countries, but also to exploit the benefits that come from strengthening these linkages. This review presents some of the latest data that argue for stronger linkages as well as the challenges of implementation which are not only politically and economically related but also include issues such as knowledge gaps, finance and governance. Finally, the review also presents a glimpse at the pathways that will be required to reach the ambitious global temperature targets of the Paris Agreement of less than 2°C above pre-industrial levels with efforts to limit temperature rise even further to 1.5°C. This provides the context for some conclusions and recommendations for policy-makers, including on methodologies for assessing linkages and leveraging them for greater benefit.This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'. © 2018 The Authors.

  2. The Late-Pleistocene sedimentation history in the Eastern Arabian Sea: Climate Weathering-Productivity linkage

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Chodankar, A.R.

    land of Arabia. Where as, until recently other parts of the Arabian Sea were rather ignored. One of such areas is the EAS bordering the west coast of India. Hence, the present work aims to explore the responses of the highly dynamic EAS to the past...), and the details of the mechanism governing the low-salinity tongue are discussed in Chapter 6.1. The biogeochemical responses of the Arabian Sea in general and western region in particular to the past climate and their linkage with monsoon variations have been...

  3. The essential interactions between understanding climate variability and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neelin, J. D.

    2017-12-01

    Global change is sometimes perceived as a field separate from other aspects of atmospheric and oceanic sciences. Despite the long history of communication between the scientific communities studying global change and those studying interannual variability and weather, increasing specialization and conflicting societal demands on the fields can put these interactions at risk. At the same time, current trajectories for greenhouse gas emissions imply substantial adaptation to climate change will be necessary. Instead of simply projecting effects to be avoided, the field is increasingly being asked to provide regional-level information for specific adaptation strategies—with associated requirements for increased precision on projections. For extreme events, challenges include validating models for rare events, especially for events that are unprecedented in the historical record. These factors will be illustrated with examples of information transfer to climate change from work on fundamental climate processes aimed originally at timescales from hours to interannual. Work to understand the effects that control probability distributions of moisture, temperature and precipitation in historical weather can yield new factors to examine for the changes in the extremes of these distributions under climate change. Surprisingly simple process models can give insights into the behavior of vastly more complex climate models. Observation systems and model ensembles aimed at weather and interannual variations prove valuable for global change and vice versa. Work on teleconnections in the climate system, such as the remote impacts of El Niño, is informing analysis of projected regional rainfall change over California. Young scientists need to prepare to work across the full spectrum of climate variability and change, and to communicate their findings, as they and our society head for future that is more interesting than optimal.

  4. Linkages among climate change, crop yields and Mexico-US cross-border migration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Shuaizhang; Krueger, Alan B; Oppenheimer, Michael

    2010-08-10

    Climate change is expected to cause mass human migration, including immigration across international borders. This study quantitatively examines the linkages among variations in climate, agricultural yields, and people's migration responses by using an instrumental variables approach. Our method allows us to identify the relationship between crop yields and migration without explicitly controlling for all other confounding factors. Using state-level data from Mexico, we find a significant effect of climate-driven changes in crop yields on the rate of emigration to the United States. The estimated semielasticity of emigration with respect to crop yields is approximately -0.2, i.e., a 10% reduction in crop yields would lead an additional 2% of the population to emigrate. We then use the estimated semielasticity to explore the potential magnitude of future emigration. Depending on the warming scenarios used and adaptation levels assumed, with other factors held constant, by approximately the year 2080, climate change is estimated to induce 1.4 to 6.7 million adult Mexicans (or 2% to 10% of the current population aged 15-65 y) to emigrate as a result of declines in agricultural productivity alone. Although the results cannot be mechanically extrapolated to other areas and time periods, our findings are significant from a global perspective given that many regions, especially developing countries, are expected to experience significant declines in agricultural yields as a result of projected warming.

  5. Understanding the school 'climate': secondary school children and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kovacs, Susan; Bernier, Sandrine; Blanchet, Aymeric; Derkenne, Chantal; Clement, Florence; Petitjean, Leslie

    2012-01-01

    This interdisciplinary study analyzes the production, circulation and reception of messages on climate change in secondary schools in France. The objective is to understand how political and educational policy initiatives influence the ways in which schools contribute to creating youngsters' perceptions and opinions about climate change. In order to study the conditions of production and reception of information about climate change, a survey was conducted in four French secondary schools, in the 'Bas Rhin' and 'Nord' departments, and local political actors in each department were interviewed. The cross disciplinary analytical and methodological approach uses the tools of sociological inquiry, information science, and political science: questionnaires and interviews were conducted with members of the educational and governmental communities of each school and department, semiotic and discursive analyses of corpuses of documents were carried out, in order to characterize documents used by students and teachers at school or in more informal contexts; the nature and extent of the relations between the political contexts and school directives and programs were also discussed. This interdisciplinary approach, combining sociological, communicational, and political methods, was chosen in response to the hypothesis that three types of variables (social, communicational and political) contribute to the structuring and production of messages about climate change in schools. This report offers a contextualized overview of activities developed within the four secondary schools to help sensitize children to the risks associated with climate change. A study of the networks of individuals (teachers, staff, members of associations, etc.) created in and around the school environment is presented. The degree of involvement of these actors in climate change programs is analyzed, as it is related to their motives and objectives, to the school discipline taught, and to the position

  6. Advances in Understanding Decadal Climate Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busalacchi, Antonio J.

    1999-01-01

    Recently, a joint Brazil-France-U.S. program, known as PIRATA (Pilot Research moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic), was proposed to begin the deployment of moored measurement platforms in the tropical Atlantic in order to enhance the existing observational data base and subsequent understanding of the processes by which the ocean and atmosphere couple in key regions of the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Empirical studies have suggested that there are strong relationships between tropical Atlantic upper ocean variability, SST, ocean-atmosphere coupling and regional climate variability. During the early 1980's a coordinated set of surface wind, subsurface thermal structure, and subsurface current observations were obtained as part of the U.S.-France SEQUAL-FOCAL process experiment designed to observe the seasonal response of the tropical Atlantic Ocean to surface forcing. Since that time, however, the observational data base for the tropical Atlantic Ocean has disintegrated to a few ship-tracks measuring ocean temperatures and a small collection of tide gauge stations measuring sea level. A more comprehensive set of observations, modeling and empirical studies is now in order to make progress on understanding the regional climate variability. The proposed PIRATA program will use mooring platforms similar to the tropical Pacific Ocean TAO array to measure surface fluxes of momentum and heat and the corresponding changes in the upper ocean thermal structure. It is anticipated that the oceanic data from this monitoring array will also be used in a predictive mode for initialization studies of regional coupled climate models. Of particular interest are zonal and meridional modes of ocean-atmosphere variability within the tropical Atlantic basin that have significant impacts on the regional climate of the bordering continents.

  7. Land Change Trends in the Great Plains: Linkages to Climate Variability and Socioeconomic Drivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drummond, M. A.

    2009-12-01

    Land use and land cover change have complex linkages to climate variability and change, socioeconomic driving forces, and land management challenges. To assess these land change dynamics and their driving forces in the Great Plains, we compare and contrast contemporary land conversion across seventeen ecoregions using Landsat remote sensing data and statistical analysis. Large area change analysis in agricultural regions is often hampered by the potential for substantial change detection error and the tendency for land conversions to occur in relatively small patches at the local level. To facilitate a regional scale analysis, a statistical sampling design of randomly selected 10-km by 10-km blocks is used in order to efficiently identify the types and rates of land conversions for four time periods between 1972 and 2000, stratified by relatively homogenous ecoregions. Results show a range of rates and processes of land change that vary by ecoregion contingent on the prevailing interactions between socioeconomic and environmental factors such as climate variability, water availability, and land quality. Ecoregions have differential climate and biophysical advantages for agricultural production and other land use change. Human actions further strengthen or dampen the characteristics of change through farm policy, technological advances, economic opportunities, population and demographic shifts, and surface and groundwater irrigation.

  8. Understanding Resistance to Climate Change Resistance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coyle, Maureen

    2014-12-01

    Fifty years after the emergence of warnings over the effects of the environmental impacts of industrialization and other conditions of a planet subjugated by humans, we are still entertaining discussions about the existence of the phenomena of climate change. Worse still, we have not checked the behaviors and conditions that exacerbate the rate of environmental destruction. Older people, particularly those who are economically vulnerable, are among those most at risk in disasters, including events resulting from climate change. By applying the "epistemologies of ignorance" outlined by Nancy Tuana, I attempt to understand the rooted ignorance that prevents acceptance of the environmental impact of human kind's unrepentant misuse of the world's natural resources and the refusal to curb the excesses that have lead to environmental damage that has had, and that will continue to have, dire consequences on the planet and for the most vulnerable denizens of Earth. Far from being a pessimistic project of abjection and despair, this article proposes that an examination of climate change denial can provide guidance for the development of a better counter-narrative. © The Author(s) 2015.

  9. Disasters and development: Part 2: understanding and exploiting disaster-development linkages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephenson, Rob S; DuFrane, Charles

    2002-01-01

    Disasters can impede the effectiveness of development resource allocation. The damage sustained from an event can be classified into four categories: (1) Loss of resources; (2) Interruption of programs and switching of crucial resources to other, shorter-term needs; (3) Negative impacts upon investment climates; and/or (4) Disruption of the non-formal sector (local businesses). Disasters have a particularly destructive economic impact in areas in which there are few alternatives for assets that are destroyed or in areas in which the resources already are at critical levels. Development processes can both increase and/or decrease the vulnerability of a society to hazards. There are dearly established linkages between poverty, marginalization, over-population, and vulnerability. To a large extent, vulnerability derives from poverty. The poor are more likely to live in vulnerable areas (slopes prone to landslides, flood plains, marginal agricultural land), have difficulty accessing education and information, have fewer assets to invest in resources to reduce vulnerability, and are more prone to become malnourished and have chronic illnesses that predispose them to injury and death. Development may be associated with the production of new hazards accepted by a society because the perceived benefits of the development project far exceed the relative risk associated with the project. Therefore, risk assessments must be part of any program planning and evaluation. Training and education are of critical importance in preventing increased vulnerability as a result of development strategies. Development also can progress in a manner that will result in mitigation of the impacts of an event on a given society (increase absorbing capacity and/or buffering capacity, elimination of hazards or the risk of them producing a disaster). Such mitigation measures can be either structural or nonstructural. There exists a wide range of options for incorporating mitigation measures in

  10. Assessing Elementary Science Methods Students' Understanding about Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambert, Julie L.; Lindgren, Joan; Bleicher, Robert

    2012-01-01

    Global climate change, referred to as climate change in this paper, has become an important planetary issue, and given that K-12 students have numerous alternative conceptions or lack of prior knowledge, it is critical that teachers have an understanding of the fundamental science underlying climate change. Teachers need to understand the natural…

  11. Climate changes - To understand and to react

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-01-01

    The first part of this report recalls the definition of the greenhouse effect, comments the climate past variations, outlines that climate changes are already here and that greenhouse effect has a human origin, and discusses the expected impacts during the 21. century. The second part presents the basis of international action in the struggle against climate change, outlines the necessity to strengthen this international action, describes the role of Europe in international negotiations on climate, outlines the need of an international agreement on climate, proposes an overview of the French climate policy (national and local actions), and outlines that some political responses do not match with sustainable development (nuclear energy, agro-fuels, carbon capture and storage, shale gas and oil). The third part indicates how one can compute his own impact on climate, and presents some collective and citizen innovative initiatives in the fields of agriculture and food, of energy, of transports and mobility, and of wastes

  12. Relative linkages of canopy-level CO₂ fluxes with the climatic and environmental variables for US deciduous forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishtiaq, Khandker S; Abdul-Aziz, Omar I

    2015-04-01

    We used a simple, systematic data-analytics approach to determine the relative linkages of different climate and environmental variables with the canopy-level, half-hourly CO2 fluxes of US deciduous forests. Multivariate pattern recognition techniques of principal component and factor analyses were utilized to classify and group climatic, environmental, and ecological variables based on their similarity as drivers, examining their interrelation patterns at different sites. Explanatory partial least squares regression models were developed to estimate the relative linkages of CO2 fluxes with the climatic and environmental variables. Three biophysical process components adequately described the system-data variances. The 'radiation-energy' component had the strongest linkage with CO2 fluxes, whereas the 'aerodynamic' and 'temperature-hydrology' components were low to moderately linked with the carbon fluxes. On average, the 'radiation-energy' component showed 5 and 8 times stronger carbon flux linkages than that of the 'temperature-hydrology' and 'aerodynamic' components, respectively. The similarity of observed patterns among different study sites (representing gradients in climate, canopy heights and soil-formations) indicates that the findings are potentially transferable to other deciduous forests. The similarities also highlight the scope of developing parsimonious data-driven models to predict the potential sequestration of ecosystem carbon under a changing climate and environment. The presented data-analytics provides an objective, empirical foundation to obtain crucial mechanistic insights; complementing process-based model building with a warranted complexity. Model efficiency and accuracy (R(2) = 0.55-0.81; ratio of root-mean-square error to the observed standard deviations, RSR = 0.44-0.67) reiterate the usefulness of multivariate analytics models for gap-filling of instantaneous flux data.

  13. Exploring elementary students’ understanding of energy and climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Colin BOYLAN

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available As environmental changes become a significant societal issue, elementary science curriculaneed to develop students’ understanding about the key concepts of energy and climate change.For teachers, developing quality learning experiences involves establishing what theirstudents’ prior understanding about energy and climate change are. A survey was developed toexplore what elementary students know and understand about renewable and non-renewablesources of energy and their relationship to climate change issues. The findings from thissurvey are reported in this paper.

  14. Paleoclimates: Understanding climate change past and present

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cronin, Thomas M.

    2010-01-01

    The field of paleoclimatology relies on physical, chemical, and biological proxies of past climate changes that have been preserved in natural archives such as glacial ice, tree rings, sediments, corals, and speleothems. Paleoclimate archives obtained through field investigations, ocean sediment coring expeditions, ice sheet coring programs, and other projects allow scientists to reconstruct climate change over much of earth's history. When combined with computer model simulations, paleoclimatic reconstructions are used to test hypotheses about the causes of climatic change, such as greenhouse gases, solar variability, earth's orbital variations, and hydrological, oceanic, and tectonic processes. This book is a comprehensive, state-of-the art synthesis of paleoclimate research covering all geological timescales, emphasizing topics that shed light on modern trends in the earth's climate. Thomas M. Cronin discusses recent discoveries about past periods of global warmth, changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, abrupt climate and sea-level change, natural temperature variability, and other topics directly relevant to controversies over the causes and impacts of climate change. This text is geared toward advanced undergraduate and graduate students and researchers in geology, geography, biology, glaciology, oceanography, atmospheric sciences, and climate modeling, fields that contribute to paleoclimatology. This volume can also serve as a reference for those requiring a general background on natural climate variability.

  15. Understanding the Climate-knowledge Sharing Relation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Llopis, Oscar; Foss, Nicolai Juul

    2016-01-01

    A cooperative organizational climate is often argued to promote knowledge-sharing behaviors among employees. However, research indicates that managerial interventions aimed at shaping the organizational climate can be difficult to execute. We develop and test a contingency model of intrinsic moti...

  16. The changing Arctic carbon cycle: using the past to understand terrestrial-aquatic linkages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, N. J.; van Hardenbroek, M.; Jones, V.; McGowan, S.; Langdon, P. G.; Whiteford, E.; Turner, S.; Edwards, M. E.

    2016-12-01

    Predicted shifts in terrestrial vegetation cover associated with Arctic warming are altering the delivery and processing of carbon to aquatic ecosystems. This process could determine whether lakes are net carbon sources or sinks and, because lake density is high in many Arctic areas, may alter regional carbon budgets. Lake sediment records integrate information from within the lake and its catchment and can be used quantify past vegetation shifts associated with known climatic episodes of warmer (Holocene Thermal Maximum) and cooler (Neoglacial) conditions. We analysed sediment cores located in different Arctic vegetation biomes (tundra, shrub, forested) in Greenland, Norway and Alaska and used biochemical (algal pigments, stable isotopes) remains to evaluate whether past vegetation shifts were associated with changes in ecosystem carbon processing and biodiversity. When lake catchments were sparsely vegetated and soil vegetation was limited ultra-violet radiation (UVR) screening pigments indicate clear lake waters, scarce dissolved organic carbon/ matter (DOC/M). Moderate vegetation development (birch scrub in Norway; herb tundra in Greenland) appears to enhance delivery of DOM to lakes, and to stimulate algal production which is apparently linked to heterotrophic carbon processing pathways (e.g. algal mixotrophy, nutrient release via the microbial loop). Mature forest cover (in Alaska and Norway) supressed lake autotrophic production, most likely because coloured DOM delivered from catchment vegetation limited light availability. During wetter periods when mires developed lake carbon processing also changed, indicating that hydrological delivery of terrestrial DOM is also important. Therefore, future changes in Arctic vegetation and precipitation patterns are highly likely to alter the way that arctic ecosystems process carbon. Our approach provides an understanding of how ecosystem diversity and carbon processing respond to past climate change and the difficulty

  17. Observing Human-induced Linkages between Urbanization and Earth's Climate System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepherd, J. Marshall; Jin, Menglin

    2004-01-01

    Urbanization is one of the extreme cases of land use change. Most of world s population has moved to urban areas. Although currently only 1.2% of the land is considered urban, the spatial coverage and density of cities are expected to rapidly increase in the near future. It is estimated that by the year 2025, 60% of the world s population will live in cities. Human activity in urban environments also alters atmospheric composition; impacts components of the water cycle; and modifies the carbon cycle and ecosystems. However, our understanding of urbanization on the total Earth-climate system is incomplete. Better understanding of how the Earth s atmosphere-ocean-land-biosphere components interact as a coupled system and the influence of the urban environment on this climate system is critical. The goal of the 2003 AGU Union session Human-induced climate variations on urban areas: From observations to modeling was to bring together scientists from interdisciplinary backgrounds to discuss the data, scientific approaches and recent results on observing and modeling components of the urban environment with the intent of sampling our current stand and discussing future direction on this topic. Herein, a summary and discussion of the observations component of the session are presented.

  18. Fire-Climate Linkages in the Northern Rocky Mountains During the Holocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Power, M.; Whitlock, C.; Bartlein, P.

    2004-12-01

    Foy Lake, located in low elevation forests of northwestern Montana, provides records of annual-to-decadal-scale landscape change for the last 13,000 years. Sedimentary charcoal and pollen analyses were used to document fire-climate linkages in the Northern Rocky Mountains (NRM) to improve the interpretation of lake-sediment records of fire activity. This paper focuses on the climate controls that suppress and promote fire activity on seasonal-to-decadal time-scales and the ability of lake-sediment proxies from the NRM to record past fire activity occurring at different spatial and temporal scales. Annually-sampled charcoal in lake-sediment cores is compared with evidence of known fires identified from historic fire atlases and fire-scarred tree-ring studies. Historical records of fire near Foy Lake, including the AD 1910 fires that burned over two million acres in Idaho and Montana, are used as a baseline for the analysis of sedimentary charcoal influx during Holocene fire episodes. During recent drought and fire years in the NRM, anomalously higher-than-normal 500mb geopotential heights in summer extended across the Pacific and into northwestern North America and produced stronger westerlies, increased subsidence off the eastern north Pacific and western North America, and suppressed precipitation. Large fire years in the early 20th century, including AD 1910, are associated with above average spring precipitation, higher-than-normal spring temperatures, followed by lower-than normal summer precipitation. The long-term record of sedimentary charcoal and pollen at Foy Lake shows that fire activity (inferred from the frequency of charcoal peaks) was initially low during the early Holocene, increased between 7000 to 5000 cal yr BP, and then decreased from 3800 to 2200 cal yr BP. Fire frequency increased from 7 episodes/1000 years at 2200 cal yr BP to 14 episodes/1000 years at 800 cal yr BP. Fire episodes reached a maximum at ca. 500 cal yr BP and then decreased to

  19. Exploring Elementary Students' Understanding of Energy and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boylan, Colin

    2008-01-01

    As environmental changes become a significant societal issue, elementary science curricula need to develop students' understanding about the key concepts of energy and climate change. For teachers, developing quality learning experiences involves establishing what their students' prior understanding about energy and climate change are. A survey…

  20. Public understanding of climate change in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber, Elke U; Stern, Paul C

    2011-01-01

    This article considers scientific and public understandings of climate change and addresses the following question: Why is it that while scientific evidence has accumulated to document global climate change and scientific opinion has solidified about its existence and causes, U.S. public opinion has not and has instead become more polarized? Our review supports a constructivist account of human judgment. Public understanding is affected by the inherent difficulty of understanding climate change, the mismatch between people's usual modes of understanding and the task, and, particularly in the United States, a continuing societal struggle to shape the frames and mental models people use to understand the phenomena. We conclude by discussing ways in which psychology can help to improve public understanding of climate change and link a better understanding to action. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved).

  1. Queering Campus: Understanding and Transforming Climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rankin, Sue

    1999-01-01

    Increasingly, homosexual members of the academic community are being subjected to physical and psychological harassment, discrimination, and violence that obstruct the achievement of their educational and professional goals. Discussion of this phenomenon examines the importance of campus climate in providing an atmosphere conducive to maximizing…

  2. An empirical perspective for understanding climate change impacts in Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henne, Paul; Bigalke, Moritz; Büntgen, Ulf; Colombaroli, Daniele; Conedera, Marco; Feller, Urs; Frank, David; Fuhrer, Jürg; Grosjean, Martin; Heiri, Oliver; Luterbacher, Jürg; Mestrot, Adrien; Rigling, Andreas; Rössler, Ole; Rohr, Christian; Rutishauser, This; Schwikowski, Margit; Stampfli, Andreas; Szidat, Sönke; Theurillat, Jean-Paul; Weingartner, Rolf; Wilcke, Wolfgan; Tinner, Willy

    2018-01-01

    Planning for the future requires a detailed understanding of how climate change affects a wide range of systems at spatial scales that are relevant to humans. Understanding of climate change impacts can be gained from observational and reconstruction approaches and from numerical models that apply existing knowledge to climate change scenarios. Although modeling approaches are prominent in climate change assessments, observations and reconstructions provide insights that cannot be derived from simulations alone, especially at local to regional scales where climate adaptation policies are implemented. Here, we review the wealth of understanding that emerged from observations and reconstructions of ongoing and past climate change impacts in Switzerland, with wider applicability in Europe. We draw examples from hydrological, alpine, forest, and agricultural systems, which are of paramount societal importance, and are projected to undergo important changes by the end of this century. For each system, we review existing model-based projections, present what is known from observations, and discuss how empirical evidence may help improve future projections. A particular focus is given to better understanding thresholds, tipping points and feedbacks that may operate on different time scales. Observational approaches provide the grounding in evidence that is needed to develop local to regional climate adaptation strategies. Our review demonstrates that observational approaches should ideally have a synergistic relationship with modeling in identifying inconsistencies in projections as well as avenues for improvement. They are critical for uncovering unexpected relationships between climate and agricultural, natural, and hydrological systems that will be important to society in the future.

  3. Public Understanding of Climate Change in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber, Elke U.; Stern, Paul C.

    2011-01-01

    This article considers scientific and public understandings of climate change and addresses the following question: Why is it that while scientific evidence has accumulated to document global climate change and scientific opinion has solidified about its existence and causes, U.S. public opinion has not and has instead become more polarized? Our…

  4. General chemistry students' understanding of the chemistry underlying climate science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Versprille, Ashley N.

    The purpose of this study is to investigate first-semester general chemistry students' understanding of the chemistry underlying climate change. The first part of this study involves the collection of qualitative data from twenty-four first-semester general chemistry students from a large Midwestern research institution. The semi-structured interview protocol was developed based on alternative conceptions identified in the research literature and the essential principles of climate change outlined in the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) document which pertain to chemistry (CCSP, 2003). The analysis and findings from the interviews indicate conceptual difficulties for students, both with basic climate literacy and underlying chemistry concepts. Students seem to confuse the greenhouse effect, global warming, and the ozone layer, and in terms of chemistry concepts, they lack a particulate level understanding of greenhouse gases and their interaction with electromagnetic radiation, causing them to not fully conceptualize the greenhouse effect and climate change. Based on the findings from these interviews, a Chemistry of Climate Science Diagnostic Instrument (CCSI) was developed for use in courses that teach chemistry with a rich context such as climate science. The CCSI is designed for professors who want to teach general chemistry, while also addressing core climate literacy principles. It will help professors examine their students' prior knowledge and alternative conceptions of the chemistry concepts associated with climate science, which could then inform their teaching and instruction.

  5. Papers of the CWRA climate change symposium : understanding climate change impacts on Manitoba's water resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    This symposium provided an opportunity for discussions on climate change issues with particular reference to the impacts on Manitoba's water resources. The presentations addressed issues of importance to governments, scientists, academics, managers, consultants and the general public. Topics of discussion ranged from climate change impacts on water quality, wetlands, hydropower, fisheries and drought, to adaptation to climate change. Recent advances in global and regional climate modelling were highlighted along with paleo-environmental indicators of climate change. The objective was to provide a better understanding of the science of climate change. The conference featured 16 presentations of which 1 was indexed separately for inclusion in this database. refs., tabs., figs

  6. Understanding global climate change scenarios through bioclimate stratification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soteriades, A. D.; Murray-Rust, D.; Trabucco, A.; Metzger, M. J.

    2017-08-01

    Despite progress in impact modelling, communicating and understanding the implications of climatic change projections is challenging due to inherent complexity and a cascade of uncertainty. In this letter, we present an alternative representation of global climate change projections based on shifts in 125 multivariate strata characterized by relatively homogeneous climate. These strata form climate analogues that help in the interpretation of climate change impacts. A Random Forests classifier was calculated and applied to 63 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate scenarios at 5 arcmin resolution. Results demonstrate how shifting bioclimate strata can summarize future environmental changes and form a middle ground, conveniently integrating current knowledge of climate change impact with the interpretation advantages of categorical data but with a level of detail that resembles a continuous surface at global and regional scales. Both the agreement in major change and differences between climate change projections are visually combined, facilitating the interpretation of complex uncertainty. By making the data and the classifier available we provide a climate service that helps facilitate communication and provide new insight into the consequences of climate change.

  7. Australian Secondary School Students' Understanding of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawson, Vaille; Carson, Katherine

    2013-01-01

    This study investigated 438 Year 10 students (15 and 16 years old) from Western Australian schools, on their understanding of the greenhouse effect and climate change, and the sources of their information. Results showed that most students have an understanding of how the greenhouse effect works, however, many students merge the processes of the…

  8. Understanding the Role of Climate Characteristics in Drought Propagation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apurv, Tushar; Sivapalan, Murugesu; Cai, Ximing

    2017-11-01

    In this study, we use numerical experiments with a simple water balance model to understand the roles of key climate characteristics in hydrologic drought propagation and the consequence of human responses to drought events under different climates. The experiments use climate inputs from a range of places with a hypothetical catchment of fixed properties to study drought propagation under different climates. Three drought propagation mechanisms are identified that produce hydrologic droughts with differing characteristics. The first mechanism involves seasonal groundwater recharge cycles, which persist during low rainfall periods, resulting in shorter hydrologic droughts compared to meteorological droughts. The second is characterized by seasonal groundwater recharge cycles that are suppressed during low rainfall periods, resulting in longer hydrologic droughts than meteorological droughts. The third is exemplified by a lack of seasonality in groundwater recharge and a strong control of precipitation over groundwater recharge, resulting in hydrologic droughts of similar duration as meteorological droughts. The roles of seasonality, climate aridity, and timing of precipitation in producing these different drought propagation mechanisms are studied. The timing of precipitation is found to have the most significant impact. Furthermore, modeling experiments are performed to understand the role of climate in the interaction between short and long time-scale human activities in response to droughts and the effect of the common practice of groundwater pumping during drought events on long-term groundwater depletion. Interestingly, climates with high interannual variability of precipitation are found to be associated with less groundwater depletion than the climates with low interannual variability.

  9. Threshold concepts as barriers to understanding climate science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walton, P.

    2013-12-01

    Whilst the scientific case for current climate change is compelling, the consequences of climate change have largely failed to permeate through to individuals. This lack of public awareness of the science and the potential impacts could be considered a key obstacle to action. The possible reasons for such limited success centre on the issue that climate change is a complex subject, and that a wide ranging academic, political and social research literature on the science and wider implications of climate change has failed to communicate the key issues in an accessible way. These failures to adequately communicate both the science and the social science of climate change at a number of levels results in ';communication gaps' that act as fundamental barriers to both understanding and engagement with the issue. Meyer and Land (2003) suggest that learners can find certain ideas and concepts within a discipline difficult to understand and these act as a barrier to deeper understanding of a subject. To move beyond these threshold concepts, they suggest that the expert needs to support the learner through a range of learning experiences that allows the development of learning strategies particular to the individual. Meyer and Land's research into these threshold concepts has been situated within Economics, but has been suggested to be more widely applicable though there has been no attempt to either define or evaluate threshold concepts to climate change science. By identifying whether common threshold concepts exist specifically in climate science for cohorts of either formal or informal learners, scientists will be better able to support the public in understanding these concepts by changing how the knowledge is communicated to help overcome these barriers to learning. This paper reports on the findings of a study that examined the role of threshold concepts as barriers to understanding climate science in a UK University and considers its implications for wider

  10. Linkages between large-scale climate patterns and the dynamics of Alaskan caribou populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kyle Joly; David R. Klein; David L. Verbyla; T. Scott Rupp; F. Stuart Chapin

    2011-01-01

    Recent research has linked climate warming to global declines in caribou and reindeer (both Rangifer tarandus) populations. We hypothesize large-scale climate patterns are a contributing factor explaining why these declines are not universal. To test our hypothesis for such relationships among Alaska caribou herds, we calculated the population growth...

  11. Enhanced understanding of ectoparasite–host trophic linkages on coral reefs through stable isotope analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amanda W.J. Demopoulos

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Parasitism, although the most common type of ecological interaction, is usually ignored in food web models and studies of trophic connectivity. Stable isotope analysis is widely used in assessing the flow of energy in ecological communities and thus is a potentially valuable tool in understanding the cryptic trophic relationships mediated by parasites. In an effort to assess the utility of stable isotope analysis in understanding the role of parasites in complex coral-reef trophic systems, we performed stable isotope analysis on three common Caribbean reef fish hosts and two kinds of ectoparasitic isopods: temporarily parasitic gnathiids (Gnathia marleyi and permanently parasitic cymothoids (Anilocra. To further track the transfer of fish-derived carbon (energy from parasites to parasite consumers, gnathiids from host fish were also fed to captive Pederson shrimp (Ancylomenes pedersoni for at least 1 month. Parasitic isopods had δ13C and δ15N values similar to their host, comparable with results from the small number of other host–parasite studies that have employed stable isotopes. Adult gnathiids were enriched in 15N and depleted in 13C relative to juvenile gnathiids, providing insights into the potential isotopic fractionation associated with blood-meal assimilation and subsequent metamorphosis. Gnathiid-fed Pedersen shrimp also had δ13C values consistent with their food source and enriched in 15N as predicted due to trophic fractionation. These results further indicate that stable isotopes can be an effective tool in deciphering cryptic feeding relationships involving parasites and their consumers, and the role of parasites and cleaners in carbon transfer in coral-reef ecosystems specifically.

  12. Enhanced understanding of ectoparasite: host trophic linkages on coral reefs through stable isotope analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demopoulos, Amanda W. J.; Sikkel, Paul C.

    2015-01-01

    Parasitism, although the most common type of ecological interaction, is usually ignored in food web models and studies of trophic connectivity. Stable isotope analysis is widely used in assessing the flow of energy in ecological communities and thus is a potentially valuable tool in understanding the cryptic trophic relationships mediated by parasites. In an effort to assess the utility of stable isotope analysis in understanding the role of parasites in complex coral-reef trophic systems, we performed stable isotope analysis on three common Caribbean reef fish hosts and two kinds of ectoparasitic isopods: temporarily parasitic gnathiids (Gnathia marleyi) and permanently parasitic cymothoids (Anilocra). To further track the transfer of fish-derived carbon (energy) from parasites to parasite consumers, gnathiids from host fish were also fed to captive Pederson shrimp (Ancylomenes pedersoni) for at least 1 month. Parasitic isopods had δ13C and δ15N values similar to their host, comparable with results from the small number of other host–parasite studies that have employed stable isotopes. Adult gnathiids were enriched in 15N and depleted in13C relative to juvenile gnathiids, providing insights into the potential isotopic fractionation associated with blood-meal assimilation and subsequent metamorphosis. Gnathiid-fed Pedersen shrimp also had δ13C values consistent with their food source and enriched in 15N as predicted due to trophic fractionation. These results further indicate that stable isotopes can be an effective tool in deciphering cryptic feeding relationships involving parasites and their consumers, and the role of parasites and cleaners in carbon transfer in coral-reef ecosystems specifically.

  13. Leveraging the Novel Climates of Arboreta to Understand Tree Responses to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ettinger, A.; Wolkovich, E. M.; Joly, S.

    2016-12-01

    Rising global temperatures are expected to cause large-scale changes to forests, including altered mortality and recruitment rates, and dramatic changes in species composition, but exactly how tree growth will be affected by climate change is uncertain. Studies to date suggest that temperate and boreal tree responses to warming range from growing faster, slower, or at unchanged rates. Here we present an approach and preliminary findings that will improve predictions of tree responses to climate change by studying how tree traits, including phenology (e.g. the timing of leaf-out), wood density, leaf mass area, and height, relate to climate sensitivity (i.e. growth responses to annual changes in climate, Figure 1). We demonstrate how arboreta can be used to understand tree responses to climate change using 500 individuals across 65 tree species growing at the Arnold Arboretum, Boston, Massachusetts. Arboretum provide a unique opportunities for understanding temperate tree responses to climate change: they provide large collections of woody species growing together that enable traits to be studied across diverse species in a phylogenetic context. Furthermore, many species in arboreta are nonnative and have been exposed to "novel" climates that may resemble future conditions in their native distributions. We use a phylogenetic approach to understand how annual growth and climate sensitivity relate to focal traits, and asses what these findings may tell us about tree responses to climate change.

  14. General Chemistry Students' Understanding of Climate Change and the Chemistry Related to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Versprille, Ashley N.; Towns, Marcy H.

    2015-01-01

    While much is known about secondary students' perspectives of climate change, rather less is known about undergraduate students' perspectives. The purpose of this study is to investigate general chemistry students' understanding of the chemistry underlying climate change. Findings that emerged from the analysis of the 24 interviews indicate that…

  15. Multidecadal, centennial, and millennial variability in sardine and anchovy abundances in the western North Pacific and climate-fish linkages during the late Holocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuwae, Michinobu; Yamamoto, Masanobu; Sagawa, Takuya; Ikehara, Ken; Irino, Tomohisa; Takemura, Keiji; Takeoka, Hidetaka; Sugimoto, Takashige

    2017-12-01

    Paleorecords of pelagic fish abundance could better define the nature of fishery productivity dynamics and help understand responses of pelagic fish stocks to long-term climate changes. We report a high-resolution record of sardine and anchovy scale deposition rates (SDRs) from Beppu Bay, Southwest Japan, showing multidecadal and centennial variability in the abundance of Japanese sardine and Japanese anchovy during the last 2850 years. Variations in the sardine SDR showed periodicities at ∼50, ∼100, and ∼300 yr, while variations in the anchovy SDR showed periodicities at ∼30 and ∼260 yr. Comparisons between and correlation analyses of the time series of the sardine and anchovy SDRs demonstrate that there is not a consistent out-of-phase relationship during the last 2850 years. This indicates that the multidecadal alternations in the sardine and anchovy populations commonly seen in the 20th century did not necessarily occur during earlier periods. The Japanese sardine SDR record shows a long-term decreasing trend in the amplitudes of the multidecadal to centennial fluctuations. This decreasing trend may have resulted from an increasing trend in the winter sea surface temperature in the western North Pacific. The multicentennial variability in sardine abundance during the last millennium is consistent with the variabilities in the abnormal snow index in East Asia and the American tree ring-based Pacific Decadal Oscillation index, suggesting a basin-wide or regional climate-marine ecosystem linkage.

  16. Principal efforts in improving the understanding of Climate impact of ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Principal efforts in improving the understanding of Climate impact of aerosols -. New and enhanced satellite borne sensors. Focused field experiments. Establishment and enhancement of ground based networks. Development and deployment of new and enhanced ...

  17. Building Research Capacity to Understand and Adapt to Climate ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Building Research Capacity to Understand and Adapt to Climate Change in the Indus Basin. The Indus river basin is home to the largest contiguous surface irrigation system in the world. In the summer of 2010, a combination of severe rainfall and unanticipated river flow resulted in a devastating flood, which was ...

  18. Linkages between sediment composition, wave climate and beach profile variability at multiple timescales

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Karunarathna, Harshinie; Horrillo-Caraballo, Jose; Kuriyama, Yoshiaki; Mase, Hajime; Ranasinghe, Roshanka; Reeve, Dominic E.

    2016-01-01

    The paper analyses, compares and contrasts cross-shore morphodynamic behaviour of four diverse beaches that have very different regional settings, wave climates and sediment characteristics, with the aid of rarely available long term measurements of beach profiles and incident waves. The beaches

  19. The GLOBE Program's Student Climate Research Campaign: Empowering Students to Measure, Investigate, and Understand Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackaro, J.; Andersen, T.; Malmberg, J.; Randolph, J. G.; Wegner, K.; Tessendorf, S. A.

    2012-12-01

    The GLOBE Program's Student Climate Research Campaign (SCRC) is a two-year campaign focused on empowering students to measure, investigate, and understand the climate system in their local community and around the world. Schools can participate in the campaign via three mechanisms: climate foundations, intensive observing periods (IOPs), and research investigations. Participation in the first year of the SCRC focused on increasing student understanding and awareness of climate. Students in 49 countries participated by joining a quarterly webinar, completing the online climate learning activity, collecting and entering data during IOPs, or completing an online join survey. The year also included a video competition with the theme of Earth Day 2012, as well as a virtual student conference in conjunction with The GLOBE Program's From Learning to Research Project. As the SCRC continues into its second year, the goal is for students to increase their understanding of and ability to conduct scientific research focused on climate. Furthermore, year two of the SCRC seeks to improve students' global awareness by encouraging collaborations among students, teachers and scientists focused on understanding the Earth as a system. In addition to the continuation of activities from year one, year two will have even more webinars offered, two competitions, the introduction of two new IOPs, and a culminating virtual student conference. It is anticipated that this virtual conference will showcase research by students who are enthusiastic and dedicated to understanding climate and mitigating impacts of climate change in their communities. This presentation will highlight examples of how the SCRC is engaging students all over the world in hands-on and locally relevant climate research.

  20. Earth Science Week 2009, "Understanding Climate", Highlights and News Clippings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robeck, Edward C. [American Geological Inst., Alexandria, VA (United States)

    2010-01-05

    The American Geological Institute (AGI) proposes to expand its influential Earth Science Week Program in 2009, with the support of the U.S. Department of Energy, to disseminate DOE's key messages, information, and resources on climate education and to include new program components. These components, ranging from online resources to live events and professional networks, would significantly increase the reach and impact of AGI's already successful geoscience education and public awareness effort in the United States and abroad in 2009, when the campaign's theme will be "Understanding Climate."

  1. Relative linkages of peatland methane and carbon dioxide fluxes with climatic, environmental and ecological parameters and their inter-comparison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banerjee, Tirtha; Hommeltenberg, Janina; Roy, Avipsa; De Roo, Frederik; Mauder, Matthias

    2016-04-01

    Although methane (CH4) is the second most important greenhouse gas (GHG) after CO2, about 80% of its global production is biogenic (wetlands, enteric fermentation and water disposal from animals) contrary to major anthropogenic sources of most other GHGs. Although on a shorter time scale, global emissions of methane are greater (10 year time frame) or about 80% (20 year time frame) of those of carbon dioxide in terms of their influence on global warming, methane emissions have been studied much less than CO2 emissions. Lakes, reservoirs and wetlands are estimated to contribute about 15-40% to the global methane source budget, which is higher than total oceanic CH4 emission. Half of the world's wetlands are represented by peatlands which cover 3% of the global total land area. Peatlands have a thick water-logged organic soil layer (peat) made up of dead and decaying plant material. Moreover, they are carbon rich, containing twice as much stock as the entire forest biomass of the world (550 Gt carbon). When disturbed, they can become significant sources of greenhouse gas emissions. The organic carbon exposed to air due to various mechanisms can release CH4 or CO2 in the atmosphere. Thus the nature of vegetation cover, radiation environment, wind turbulence, soil characteristics, water table depth etc. are expected to be important forcings that influence the emission of CH4 or CO2 in the shorter time scale. However, long term climate change can also influence these governing factors themselves over a larger time scale, which in turn can influence the wetland GHG emissions. Thus developing a predictive framework and long term source appropriation for wetland CH4 or CO2 warrants an identification of the major environmental forcings on the CH4 or CO2 flux. In the present work, we use a simple and systematic data-analytics approach to determine the relative linkages of different climate and environmental variables with the canopy level half-hourly CH4 or CO2 fluxes over a

  2. Understanding and Improving Ocean Mixing Parameterizations for modeling Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard, A. M.; Fells, J.; Clarke, J.; Cheng, Y.; Canuto, V.; Dubovikov, M. S.

    2017-12-01

    Climate is vital. Earth is only habitable due to the atmosphere&oceans' distribution of energy. Our Greenhouse Gas emissions shift overall the balance between absorbed and emitted radiation causing Global Warming. How much of these emissions are stored in the ocean vs. entering the atmosphere to cause warming and how the extra heat is distributed depends on atmosphere&ocean dynamics, which we must understand to know risks of both progressive Climate Change and Climate Variability which affect us all in many ways including extreme weather, floods, droughts, sea-level rise and ecosystem disruption. Citizens must be informed to make decisions such as "business as usual" vs. mitigating emissions to avert catastrophe. Simulations of Climate Change provide needed knowledge but in turn need reliable parameterizations of key physical processes, including ocean mixing, which greatly impacts transport&storage of heat and dissolved CO2. The turbulence group at NASA-GISS seeks to use physical theory to improve parameterizations of ocean mixing, including smallscale convective, shear driven, double diffusive, internal wave and tidal driven vertical mixing, as well as mixing by submesoscale eddies, and lateral mixing along isopycnals by mesoscale eddies. Medgar Evers undergraduates aid NASA research while learning climate science and developing computer&math skills. We write our own programs in MATLAB and FORTRAN to visualize and process output of ocean simulations including producing statistics to help judge impacts of different parameterizations on fidelity in reproducing realistic temperatures&salinities, diffusivities and turbulent power. The results can help upgrade the parameterizations. Students are introduced to complex system modeling and gain deeper appreciation of climate science and programming skills, while furthering climate science. We are incorporating climate projects into the Medgar Evers college curriculum. The PI is both a member of the turbulence group at

  3. Fire, climate and vegetation linkages in the Bolivian Chiquitano seasonally dry tropical forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Power, M. J.; Whitney, B. S.; Mayle, F. E.; Neves, D. M.; de Boer, E. J.; Maclean, K. S.

    2016-01-01

    South American seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs) are critically endangered, with only a small proportion of their original distribution remaining. This paper presents a 12 000 year reconstruction of climate change, fire and vegetation dynamics in the Bolivian Chiquitano SDTF, based upon pollen and charcoal analysis, to examine the resilience of this ecosystem to drought and fire. Our analysis demonstrates a complex relationship between climate, fire and floristic composition over multi-millennial time scales, and reveals that moisture variability is the dominant control upon community turnover in this ecosystem. Maximum drought during the Early Holocene, consistent with regional drought reconstructions, correlates with a period of significant fire activity between 8000 and 7000 cal yr BP which resulted in a decrease in SDTF diversity. As fire activity declined but severe regional droughts persisted through the Middle Holocene, SDTFs, including Anadenanthera and Astronium, became firmly established in the Bolivian lowlands. The trend of decreasing fire activity during the last two millennia promotes the idea among forest ecologists that SDTFs are threatened by fire. Our analysis shows that the Chiquitano seasonally dry biome has been more resilient to Holocene changes in climate and fire regime than previously assumed, but raises questions over whether this resilience will continue in the future under increased temperatures and drought coupled with a higher frequency anthropogenic fire regime. This article is part of the themed issue ‘The interaction of fire and mankind’. PMID:27216522

  4. Fire, climate and vegetation linkages in the Bolivian Chiquitano seasonally dry tropical forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Power, M J; Whitney, B S; Mayle, F E; Neves, D M; de Boer, E J; Maclean, K S

    2016-06-05

    South American seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs) are critically endangered, with only a small proportion of their original distribution remaining. This paper presents a 12 000 year reconstruction of climate change, fire and vegetation dynamics in the Bolivian Chiquitano SDTF, based upon pollen and charcoal analysis, to examine the resilience of this ecosystem to drought and fire. Our analysis demonstrates a complex relationship between climate, fire and floristic composition over multi-millennial time scales, and reveals that moisture variability is the dominant control upon community turnover in this ecosystem. Maximum drought during the Early Holocene, consistent with regional drought reconstructions, correlates with a period of significant fire activity between 8000 and 7000 cal yr BP which resulted in a decrease in SDTF diversity. As fire activity declined but severe regional droughts persisted through the Middle Holocene, SDTFs, including Anadenanthera and Astronium, became firmly established in the Bolivian lowlands. The trend of decreasing fire activity during the last two millennia promotes the idea among forest ecologists that SDTFs are threatened by fire. Our analysis shows that the Chiquitano seasonally dry biome has been more resilient to Holocene changes in climate and fire regime than previously assumed, but raises questions over whether this resilience will continue in the future under increased temperatures and drought coupled with a higher frequency anthropogenic fire regime.This article is part of the themed issue 'The interaction of fire and mankind'. © 2016 The Author(s).

  5. Linkages Among Climate, Fire, and Thermoerosion in Alaskan Tundra Over the Past Three Millennia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chipman, M. L.; Hu, F. S.

    2017-12-01

    Amplified Arctic warming may facilitate novel tundra disturbance regimes, as suggested by recent increases in the rate and extent of thermoerosion and fires in some tundra areas. Thermoerosion and wildfire can exacerbate warming by releasing large permafrost carbon stocks, and interactions between disturbance regimes can lead to complex ecosystem feedbacks. We conducted geochemical and charcoal analyses of lake sediments from an Alaskan lake to identify thermoerosion and fire events over the past 3,000 years. Thermoerosion was inferred from lake sediments in the context of modern soil data from retrogressive thaw slumps (RTS). Magnetic susceptibility (MS), Ca:K, and Ca:Sr increased with depth in modern RTS soils and were higher on recently exposed than older slump surfaces. Peaks in bulk density, % CaCO3, Ca:K, Ca:Sr, and MS values in the sediments suggest at least 18 thermoerosion events in the Loon Lake watershed over the past 3,000 years. Charcoal analysis identifies 22 fires over the same period at this site. Temporal variability in these records suggests climate-driven responses of both thermoerosion and fire disturbance regimes, with fewer RTS episodes and fire events during the Little Ice Age than the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Moreover, RTS activity lagged behind catchment fires by 20-30 years (>90% confidence interval), implying that fires facilitated thermoerosion on decadal time scales, possibly because of prolonged active-layer deepening following fire and postfire proliferation of insulative shrub cover. These results highlight the potential for complex interactions between climate, vegetation, and tundra disturbance in response to ongoing warming.

  6. Linkages between Alaskan sockeye salmon abundance, growth at sea, and climate, 1955-2002

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruggerone, G.T.; Nielsen, J.L.; Bumgarner, J.

    2007-01-01

    We tested the hypothesis that increased growth of salmon during early marine life contributed to greater survival and abundance of salmon following the 1976/1977 climate regime shift and that this, in turn, led to density-dependent reductions in growth during late marine stages. Annual measurements of Bristol Bay (Bering Sea) and Chignik (Gulf of Alaska) sockeye salmon scale growth from 1955 to 2002 were used as indices of body growth. During the first and second years at sea, growth of both stocks tended to be higher after the 1976-1977 climate shift, whereas growth during the third year and homeward migration was often below average. Multiple regression models indicated that return per spawner of Bristol Bay sockeye salmon and adult abundance of western and central Alaska sockeye salmon were positively correlated with growth during the first 2 years at sea and negatively correlated with growth during later life stages. After accounting for competition between Bristol Bay sockeye and Asian pink salmon, age-specific adult length of Bristol Bay salmon increased after the 1976-1977 regime shift, then decreased after the 1989 climate shift. Late marine growth and age-specific adult length of Bristol Bay salmon was exceptionally low after 1989, possibly reducing their reproductive potential. These findings support the hypothesis that greater marine growth during the first 2 years at sea contributed to greater salmon survival and abundance, which in turn led to density-dependent growth during later life stages when size-related mortality was likely lower. Our findings provide new evidence supporting the importance of bottom-up control in marine ecosystems and highlight the complex dynamics of species interactions that continually change as salmon grow and mature in the ocean. ?? 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Oscillations and trends of river discharge in the southern Central Andes and linkages with climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castino, Fabiana; Bookhagen, Bodo; Strecker, Manfred R.

    2017-12-01

    This study analyzes the discharge variability of small to medium drainage basins (102-104 km2) in the southern Central Andes of NW Argentina. The Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT) was applied to evaluate non-stationary oscillatory modes of variability and trends, based on four time series of monthly-normalized discharge anomaly between 1940 and 2015. Statistically significant trends reveal increasing discharge during the past decades and document an intensification of the hydrological cycle during this period. An Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) analysis revealed that discharge variability in this region can be best described by five quasi-periodic statistically significant oscillatory modes, with mean periods varying from 1 to ∼20 y. Moreover, we show that discharge variability is most likely linked to the phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) at multi-decadal timescales (∼20 y) and, to a lesser degree, to the Tropical South Atlantic SST anomaly (TSA) variability at shorter timescales (∼2-5 y). Previous studies highlighted a rapid increase in discharge in the southern Central Andes during the 1970s, inferred to have been associated with the global 1976-77 climate shift. Our results suggest that the rapid discharge increase in the NW Argentine Andes coincides with the periodic enhancement of discharge, which is mainly linked to a negative to positive transition of the PDO phase and TSA variability associated with a long-term increasing trend. We therefore suggest that variations in discharge in this region are largely driven by both natural variability and the effects of global climate change. We furthermore posit that the links between atmospheric and hydrologic processes result from a combination of forcings that operate on different spatiotemporal scales.

  8. Middle School Students' Understandings About Anthropogenic Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golden, B. W.

    2013-12-01

    they discussed the validation of their beliefs. That is, we argue that the unit, and the emphases contained within the unit, resulted in the "epistemic scaffolding" of their ideas, to the extent that they shifted from arguing from anecdotes to arguing based on other types of data, especially from line graphs. Additionally, we found that students' understandings of climate change were tied to their ontological constructions of the subject matter, i.e., many perceived climate change as just another environmentally sensitive issue such as littering and pollution, and were therefore limited in their ability to understand anthropogenic climate change in the vast and robust sense meant by current scientific consensus. Given these known difficulties, it is critical to explore further research of this sort in order to better understand what students are actually thinking, and how that thinking is prone to change, modification, or not. Subsequently, K-12 strategies might be better designed, if that is indeed a priority of US/Western society.

  9. Challenges and opportunities for improved understanding of regional climate dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Matthew; Minobe, Shoshiro; Barreiro, Marcelo; Bordoni, Simona; Kaspi, Yohai; Kuwano-Yoshida, Akira; Keenlyside, Noel; Manzini, Elisa; O'Reilly, Christopher H.; Sutton, Rowan; Xie, Shang-Ping; Zolina, Olga

    2018-02-01

    Dynamical processes in the atmosphere and ocean are central to determining the large-scale drivers of regional climate change, yet their predictive understanding is poor. Here, we identify three frontline challenges in climate dynamics where significant progress can be made to inform adaptation: response of storms, blocks and jet streams to external forcing; basin-to-basin and tropical-extratropical teleconnections; and the development of non-linear predictive theory. We highlight opportunities and techniques for making immediate progress in these areas, which critically involve the development of high-resolution coupled model simulations, partial coupling or pacemaker experiments, as well as the development and use of dynamical metrics and exploitation of hierarchies of models.

  10. Past Penguin Colony Linkages to Climate Change and Catastrophic Volcanism on the Northern Antarctic Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, S. J.; Monien, P.; Foster, L. C.; Loftfield, J.; Schnetger, B.; Pearson, E. J.; Hocking, E. P.; Fretwell, P.; Ireland, L.; Ochyra, R.; Haworth, A.; Allen, C. S.; Brumsack, H. J.; Bentley, M.; Hodgson, D.

    2016-12-01

    Recent warming and reductions in sea-ice in some parts of Antarctica are thought to be having a negative impact on populations of `ice-dependent' penguin species (e.g., Emperor, Adélie) that feed at the sea-ice edge because populations of `ice-avoiding'/more `adaptable' species (e.g., Gentoo, Chinstrap) have remained stable or increased, and some Adélie colonies located in areas of sea-ice expansion have increased. This hypothesis is based on short observational records and limited subfossil evidence, but has not been tested over longer, mid-late Holocene, timescales on the Antarctic Peninsula. Between 1950-1997, the northern Antarctic Peninsula was one of the most rapidly warming regions in the Southern Hemisphere and, over the last 30 years, the largest breeding population of Gentoo penguins in Antarctica on Ardley Island, north-western Antarctic Peninsula, has increased. We tracked past changes in the Ardley Island penguin colony size by comparing detailed biogeochemical analysis of an 8,500-year Ardley Lake sediment profile with past records of penguin presence, climate and sea-ice extent across the Antarctic Peninsula and found that the colony also responded positively during some local-regionally warmer parts of the late Holocene. However, at least three large volcanic eruptions from nearby Deception Island had a devastating impact on the colony between 7000-2000 years ago, with colony recovery taking up to 800 years following the most disruptive period of volcanic activity c. 5500-5000 years ago.

  11. Long-term environmental drivers of DOC fluxes: Linkages between management, hydrology and climate in a subtropical coastal estuary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regier, Peter; Briceño, Henry; Jaffé, Rudolf

    2016-12-01

    Urban and agricultural development of the South Florida peninsula has disrupted historic freshwater flow in the Everglades, a hydrologically connected ecosystem stretching from central Florida to the Gulf of Mexico, USA. Current system-scale restoration efforts aim to restore natural hydrologic regimes to reestablish pre-drainage ecosystem functioning through increased water availability, quality and timing. Aquatic transport of carbon in this ecosystem, primarily as dissolved organic carbon (DOC), plays a critical role in biogeochemical cycling and food-web dynamics, and will be affected both by water management policies and climate change. To better understand DOC dynamics in South Florida estuaries and how hydrology, climate and water management may affect them, 14 years of monthly data collected in the Shark River estuary were used to examine DOC flux dynamics in a broader environmental context. Multivariate statistical methods were applied to long-term datasets for hydrology, water quality and climate to untangle the interconnected environmental drivers that control DOC export at monthly and annual scales. DOC fluxes were determined to be primarily controlled by hydrology but also by seasonality and long-term climate patterns and episodic weather events. A four-component model (salinity, rainfall, inflow, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) capable of predicting DOC fluxes (R2 = 0.84, p < 0.0001, n = 155) was established and applied to potential climate change scenarios for the Everglades to assess DOC flux response to climate and restoration variables. The majority of scenario runs indicated that DOC export from the Everglades is expected to decrease due to future changes in rainfall, water management and salinity.

  12. Reconstructed streamflow for Citarum River, Java, Indonesia: linkages to tropical climate dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    D' Arrigo, Rosanne [Tree-Ring Laboratory, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY (United States); Abram, Nerilie [The Australian National University, Research School of Earth Sciences, Canberra (Australia); Natural Environment Research Council, British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge (United Kingdom); Ummenhofer, Caroline [University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW (Australia); Palmer, Jonathan [Gondwana Tree-Ring Laboratory, Canterbury (New Zealand); Mudelsee, Manfred [Climate Risk Analysis, Hannover (Germany)

    2011-02-15

    The Citarum river basin of western Java, Indonesia, which supplies water to 10 million residents in Jakarta, has become increasingly vulnerable to anthropogenic change. Citarum's streamflow record, only {proportional_to}45 years in length (1963-present), is too short for understanding the full range of hydrometeorological variability in this important region. Here we present a tree-ring based reconstruction of September-November Citarum streamflow (AD 1759-2006), one of the first such records available for monsoon Asia. Close coupling is observed between decreased tree growth and low streamflow levels, which in turn are associated with drought caused by ENSO warm events in the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean positive dipole-type variability. Over the full length of record, reconstructed variance was at its weakest during the interval from {proportional_to}1905-1960, overlapping with a period of unusually-low variability (1920-1960) in the ENSO-Indian Ocean dipole systems. In subsequent decades, increased variance in both the streamflow anomalies and a coral-based SST reconstruction of the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode signal the potential for intensified drought activity and related consequences for water supply and crop productivity in western Java, where much of the country's rice is grown. (orig.)

  13. Celebrity Climate Contrarians: Understanding a keystone species in contemporary climate science-policy-public interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boykoff, M. T.

    2012-12-01

    Since the 1980s, a keystone species called 'climate contrarians' has emerged and thrived. Through resistance to dominant interpretations of scientific evidence, and often outlier views on optimal responses to climate threats, contrarians have raised many meta-level questions: for instance, questions involve to what extent have their varied interventions been effective in terms of sparking a new and wise Copernican revolution; or do their amplified voices instead service entrenched carbon-based industry interests while they blend debates over 'climate change' with other culture wars? While the value of their influence has generated numerous debates, there is no doubt that climate contrarians have had significant influence on climate science, policy and public communities in ways that are larger than would be expected from their relative abundance in society. As such, a number of these actors have achieved 'celebrity status' in science-policy circles, and, at times, larger public spaces. This presentation focuses on how - particularly through amplified mass media attention to their movements - various outlier interventions have demonstrated themselves to be (often deliberately) detrimental to efforts that seek to enlarge rather than constrict the spectrum of possibility for mobilizing appropriate responses to ongoing climate challenges. Also, this work analyses the growth pathways of these charismatic megafauna through interview data and participant observations completed by the author at the 2011 Heartland Institute's Sixth International Conference on Climate Change. This provides detail on how outlier perspectives characterized as climate contrarians do work in these spaces under the guise of public intellectualism to achieve intended goals and objectives. The research undertaken and related in the presentation here seeks to better understand motivations that prop up these contrarian stances, such as possible ideological or evidentiary disagreement to the orthodox

  14. Linkages between organization climate and work outcomes: perceptual differences among health service professionals as a function of customer contact intensity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scotti, Dennis J; Harmon, Joel

    2014-01-01

    The delivery of high-quality service, rendered by health service professionals who interact with customers (patients), increases the likelihood that customers will form positive evaluations of the quality of their service encounters as well as high levels of customer satisfaction. Using linkage theory to develop our conceptual framework, we identify four clusters of variables which contribute to a chain of sequential events that connect organization climate to personal and operational work outcomes. We then examine the perceptual differences of service professionals, grouped by intensity of customer contact, with respect to these variables. National data for this project were obtained from multiple sources made available by the Veterans Healthcare Administration (VHA). Cross-group differences were tested using a series of variance analyses. The results indicate that level of customer-contact intensity plays a significant role in explaining variation in perceptions of support staff, clinical practitioners, and nurses at the multivariate and univariate levels of analysis. Contact intensity appears to be a core determinant of the nature of work performed by health service professionals as well as their psychological responses to organizational and customer-related dynamics. Health service professionals are important resources because of their specialized knowledge, labor expense, and scarcity. Based on findings from our research, managers are advised to survey employees' perceptions of their organizational environment and design practices that respond to the unique viewpoints of each of the professional groups identified in this study. Such tailoring should help executives maximize the value of investments in human resources by underwriting patient satisfaction and financial sustainability.

  15. Spatio-temporal variability of NDVI-precipitation over southernmost South America: possible linkages between climate signals and epidemics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tourre, Y M [METEO-France, Meteopole, 42 Avenue Coriolis, 31057 Toulouse Cedex 1 (France); Jarlan, L [Centre d' Etudes Spatiales de la Biosphere (CESBIO), 18 avenue Edouard Belin, F-31401 Toulouse Cedex 4 (France); Lacaux, J-P [Universite Paul Sabatier (UPS), Observatoire Midi Pyrenees (OMP), 12 Avenue Edouard Belin, 31400 Toulouse (France); Rotela, C H [Instituto de Altos Estudios Espaciales ' Mario Gulich' , Comision Nacional de Actividades Espaciales (CONAE), Universidad Nacional de Cordoba (Argentina); Lafaye, M [CNES, DSP/ARP/AV, 18 Avenue Edouard Belin, F-31401 Toulouse Cedex 4 (France)

    2008-10-15

    -frequency climate signals such as the quasi-biennial oscillation in northwest Argentina. The joint preliminary results (climate-environment-public health reports) presented here for the first time are meant: (1) to contribute to a better understanding of climate-environment-epidemics process-based and modeling studies and (2) to facilitate, in the long run, the implementation of local and regional health early warning systems (HEWS) over southernmost South America. The latter is becoming crucial with ever-increasing migration, urban sprawl (re-emergence of dengue fever epidemics since the late 1990s), all embedded in a climate change context.

  16. Spatio-temporal variability of NDVI-precipitation over southernmost South America: possible linkages between climate signals and epidemics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tourre, Y M; Jarlan, L; Lacaux, J-P; Rotela, C H; Lafaye, M

    2008-01-01

    quasi-biennial oscillation in northwest Argentina. The joint preliminary results (climate-environment-public health reports) presented here for the first time are meant: (1) to contribute to a better understanding of climate-environment-epidemics process-based and modeling studies and (2) to facilitate, in the long run, the implementation of local and regional health early warning systems (HEWS) over southernmost South America. The latter is becoming crucial with ever-increasing migration, urban sprawl (re-emergence of dengue fever epidemics since the late 1990s), all embedded in a climate change context.

  17. Heating up Climate Literacy Education: Understanding Teachers' and Students' Motivational and Affective Response to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinatra, G. M.

    2011-12-01

    presentation, findings from a research program exploring the role of "hot constructs" such as motivation and emotion in teaching and learning about climate change will be shared. In these studies, we have explored constructs such as emotions, misconceptions, plausibility perceptions, understanding deep time, and dispositions towards uncertainty. Results from four studies will be highlighted. In the first study, we demonstrated that comfort with ambiguity and a willingness to think deeply about issues predicted both change in attitudes towards climate change and expressed willingness to take mitigative action in college students (Sinatra, et al. 2011). In another study with college students, we demonstrated that knowledge of deep time and plausibility perceptions of human-induced climate change were related to students' understanding of weather and climate distinctions (Lombardi & Sinatra, 2010). In a study with graduate education students, we found that misconceptions about climate change were associated with strong emotions (Broughton, et al., 2011). With practicing teachers we have found that emotions, specifically anger and hopelessness, were significant predictors of plausibility perceptions of human-induced climate change (Lombardi & Sinatra, in preparation). The implications for climate change education of the findings will be discussed.

  18. Can pictures speak a thousand words in understanding climate change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walton, P.

    2017-12-01

    Pictures are able to engage, inspire and educate people in a way that the spoken or written word cannot, and with 21st Century technology we now have even more ways to present images. Researchers and campaigners working in climate change have used the power of images to great effect, bringing the issue of a warming planet into stark relief through iconic scenes such as the forlorn polar bear adrift on an iceberg. Whilst undeniably successful, this image has now become passé and invisible necessitating the scientific community to identify new ways to engage and educate the general public. This paper reports on a new high resolution visualisation app that has been developed by the European Space Agency to illustrate the change over time of a number of climate variables. Data, collected via satellite Earth observations, have been rendered into visually stunning animations that can be interrogated in a number of ways to allow the user to understand the spatial and temporal changes of that variable. But is it enough? Can it ever be that all that glisters really is gold?

  19. Relative Linkages of Stream Dissolved Oxygen with the Climatic, Hydrological, and Biogeochemical Drivers across the East Coast of U.S.A.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdul-Aziz, O. I.; Ahmed, S.

    2017-12-01

    Dissolved oxygen (DO) is a key indicator of stream water quality and ecosystem health. However, the temporal dynamics of stream DO is controlled by a multitude of interacting environmental drivers. The relative linkages of stream DO with the relevant environmental drivers were determined in this study across the U.S. East Coast by employing a systematic data analytics approach. The study analyzed temporal data for 51 water quality monitoring stations from USGS NWIS and EPA STORET databases. Principal component analysis and factor analysis, along with Pearson's correlation analysis, were applied to identify the interrelationships and unravel latent patterns among DO and the environmental drivers. Power law based partial least squares regression models with a bootstarp Monte-Carlo procedure (1000 iterations) were developed to reliably estimate the environmental linkages of DO by resolving multicollinearity. Based on the similarity of dominant drivers, the streams were categorized into three distinct environmental regimes. Stream DO in the northern part of temperate zone (e.g., northeast coast) had the strongest linkage with water temperature; suggesting an environmental regime with dominant climatic control. However, stream DO in the tropical zones (e.g., southeast Florida) was mostly driven by pH; indicating an environmental regime likely controlled by redox chemistry. Further, a transitional regime was found between the temperate and tropical zones, where stream DO was controlled by both water temperature and pH. The results suggested a strong effect of the climatic gradient (temperate to tropical) on stream DO along the East Coast. The identified environmental regimes and the regime-specific relative linkages provided new information on the dominant controls of coastal stream water quality dynamics. The findings would guide the planning and management of coastal stream water quality and ecosystem health across the U.S. East Coast and around the world.

  20. Sixth-Grade Students' Progress in Understanding the Mechanisms of Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Visintainer, Tammie; Linn, Marcia

    2015-01-01

    Developing solutions for complex issues such as global climate change requires an understanding of the mechanisms involved. This study reports on the impact of a technology-enhanced unit designed to improve understanding of global climate change, its mechanisms, and their relationship to everyday energy use. Global Climate Change, implemented in…

  1. Towards a Better Understanding of Climate Change Negotiations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bryndís Arndal Woods

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The bulk of environmental economics literature applies non-cooperative game theory to examine the stability of International Environmental Agreements. Recently, a new trend has emerged in the literature whereby scholars use modified economic approaches to better account for ‘reality’ as such. This article builds upon the work of Hugh Ward, Frank Grundig and Ethan Zorick who conducted a mixed-method analysis to create a model of international climate change negotiations which could explain why policy change has been minimal in this issue area. The purpose of this article is to further develop the mixed-method approach in order to gain a better understanding of international climate change negotiations. Using the progression of the 2011 Durban negotiation session as our raw data, we demonstrate the usefulness of conducting qualitative and quantitative analyses simultaneously to best represent reality. Content and discourse analyses are applied to the Durban negotiations to identify the properties of the underlying game. The results are applied to the future of the negotiations in order to identify trends which need to be addressed to reach more progressive outcomes in the future. The main results of the qualitative analyses of the Durban negotiations included that players had modest expectations at the outset of the negotiations, which influenced the issues they addressed. The quantitative analysis demonstrated that players achieved a high degree of success at Durban; all players achieved their desired outcomes on at least half of the issues they addressed. Finally, the mixed-method approach identified important trends from the negotiations, most importantly the cracks exposed within the BASIC bloc and the role of the ‘middle ground’ alliance.

  2. Quantification of Linkages between Large-Scale Climate Patterns and Annual Precipitation for the Colorado River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalra, A.; Ahmad, S.

    2010-12-01

    Precipitation is regarded as one of the key variables driving various hydrologic processes and the future precipitation information can be useful to better understand the long-term climate dynamics. In this paper, a simple, robust, and parsimonious precipitation forecast model, Support Vector Machine (SVM) is proposed which uses large-scale climate information and predict annual precipitation 1-year in advance. SVM’s are a novel class of neural networks (NNs) which are based on the statistical learning theory. The SVM’s has three main advantages over the traditional NNs: 1) better generalization ability, 2) the architecture and weights of SVM’s are guaranteed to be unique and globally optimum, and 3) SVM’s are trained more rapidly than the corresponding NN. With these advantages, an application of SVM incorporating large-scale climate information is developed and applied to seventeen climate divisions encompassing the Colorado River Basin in the western United States. Annual oceanic-atmospheric indices, comprising of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and El Nino-Southern Oscillations (ENSO) for a period of 1900-2007 are used to generate annual precipitation estimates with 1-year lead time. The results from the present study indicate that long-term precipitation predictions for the Upper Colorado River Basin can be successfully obtained using a combination of NAO and ENSO indices whereas coupling PDO and AMO results in improved precipitation predictions for the Lower Colorado River Basin. Precipitation predictions from the SVM model are found to be better when compared with the predictions obtained from feed-forward back propagation Artificial Neural Network and Multivariate Linear Regression models. The overall results of this study revealed that the annual precipitation of the Colorado River Basin was significantly influenced by oceanic-atmospheric oscillations and the proposed SVM

  3. The western arctic linkage experiment (WALE): overview and synthesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    A.D. McGuire; J. Walsh; J.S. Kimball; J.S. Clein; S.E. Euskirdhen; S. Drobot; U.C. Herzfeld; J. Maslanik; R.B. Lammers; M.A. Rawlins; C.J. Vorosmarty; T.S. Rupp; W. Wu; M. Calef

    2008-01-01

    The primary goal of the Western Arctic Linkage Experiment (WALE) was to better understand uncertainties of simulated hydrologic and ecosystem dynamics of the western Arctic in the context of 1) uncertainties in the data available to drive the models and 2) different approaches to simulating regional hydrology and ecosystem dynamics. Analyses of datasets on climate...

  4. Climatic Change and the Classroom: A Teaching Aid to Understanding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanders, C. Gerald

    Equable climates with mild winters and summers are more likely to maintain snow or ice cover in high latitudes than extreme climates having colder winters and hotter summers. A simplified version of the Milankovitch cycles can be used to develop a model instructors can use in their classes to illustrate the orbital variations producing either…

  5. Understanding Climate Change and Manifestation of its Driven ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This article examines the nature and manifestation of climate change driven impacts on the agrarian districts of Kongwa and Bahi in the semi arid areas of Dodoma region in Tanzania. A Survey of 398 households in the study area was undertaken to elicit information on the nature and manifestation of climate change driven ...

  6. Understanding Farmer Perspectives on Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, Lois Wright; Hobbs, Jon

    2015-01-01

    Agriculture is vulnerable to climate change and a source of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Farmers face pressures to adjust agricultural systems to make them more resilient in the face of increasingly variable weather (adaptation) and reduce GHG production (mitigation). This research examines relationships between Iowa farmers’ trust in environmental or agricultural interest groups as sources of climate information, climate change beliefs, perceived climate risks to agriculture, and support for adaptation and mitigation responses. Results indicate that beliefs varied with trust, and beliefs in turn had a significant direct effect on perceived risks from climate change. Support for adaptation varied with perceived risks, while attitudes toward GHG reduction (mitigation) were associated predominantly with variation in beliefs. Most farmers were supportive of adaptation responses, but few endorsed GHG reduction, suggesting that outreach should focus on interventions that have adaptive and mitigative properties (e.g., reduced tillage, improved fertilizer management). PMID:25983336

  7. Improving Climate Projections by Understanding How Cloud Phase affects Radiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cesana, Gregory; Storelvmo, Trude

    2017-01-01

    Whether a cloud is predominantly water or ice strongly influences interactions between clouds and radiation coming down from the Sun or up from the Earth. Being able to simulate cloud phase transitions accurately in climate models based on observational data sets is critical in order to improve confidence in climate projections, because this uncertainty contributes greatly to the overall uncertainty associated with cloud-climate feedbacks. Ultimately, it translates into uncertainties in Earth's sensitivity to higher CO2 levels. While a lot of effort has recently been made toward constraining cloud phase in climate models, more remains to be done to document the radiative properties of clouds according to their phase. Here we discuss the added value of a new satellite data set that advances the field by providing estimates of the cloud radiative effect as a function of cloud phase and the implications for climate projections.

  8. Understanding the science of climate change: Talking points - Impacts to the Great Lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amanda Schramm; Rachel Loehman

    2010-01-01

    Climate change presents significant risks to our nation’s natural and cultural resources. Although climate change was once believed to be a future problem, there is now unequivocal scientific evidence that our planet’s climate system is warming (IPCC 2007a). While many people understand that human emissions of greenhouse gases have significantly contributed to recent...

  9. Western Australian High School Students' Understandings about the Socioscientific Issue of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawson, Vaille

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is one of the most significant science issues facing humanity; yet, teaching students about climate change is challenging: not only is it multidisciplinary, but also it is contentious and debated in political, social and media forums. Students need to be equipped with an understanding of climate change science to be able to…

  10. Instantaneous Linkages between Clouds and Large-Scale Meteorology over the Southern Ocean in Observations and a Climate Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wall, Casey J. [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington; Hartmann, Dennis L. [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington; Ma, Po-Lun [Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington

    2017-12-01

    Instantaneous, coincident, footprint-level satellite observations of cloud properties and radiation taken during austral summer over the Southern Ocean are used to study relationships between clouds and large-scale meteorology. Cloud properties are very sensitive to the strength of vertical motion in the middle-troposphere, and low-cloud properties are sensitive to estimated inversion strength, low-level temperature advection, and sea surface temperature. These relationships are quantified. An index for the meteorological anomalies associated with midlatitude cyclones is presented, and it is used to reveal the sensitivity of clouds to the meteorology within the warm- and cold-sector of cyclones. The observed relationships between clouds and meteorology are compared to those in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) using satellite simulators. Low-clouds simulated by CAM5 are too few, too bright, and contain too much ice, and low-clouds located in the cold-sector of cyclones are too sensitive to variations in the meteorology. The latter two biases are dramatically reduced when CAM5 is coupled with an updated boundary layer parameterization know as Cloud Layers Unified by Binormals (CLUBB). More generally, this study demonstrates that examining the instantaneous timescale is a powerful approach to understanding the physical processes that control clouds and how they are represented in climate models. Such an evaluation goes beyond the cloud climatology and exposes model bias under various meteorological conditions.

  11. Receptive Audiences for Climate Change Education: Understanding Attitudes and Barriers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, L. D.; Luebke, J. F.; Clayton, S.; Saunders, C. D.; Matiasek, J.; Grajal, A.

    2012-12-01

    Much effort has been devoted to finding ways to explain climate change to uninterested audiences and encourage mitigation behaviors among dismissive audiences. Most approaches have focused on conveying information about climate change processes or threats. Here we report the results of a national survey designed to characterize the readiness of zoo and aquarium visitors to engage with the issue of climate change. Two survey forms, one focused primarily on attitudes (N=3,594) and another on behaviors (N=3,588), were administered concurrently in summer 2011 at 15 Association of Zoos and Aquariums accredited institutions. The attitudes survey used Global Warming's Six Americas segmentation protocols (climatechangecommunication.org) to compare climate change attitudes of zoo and aquarium visitors with the American public (Leiserowitz et al., 2011). Our results reveal that visitors are receptive audiences for climate change education and want to do more to address climate change. Even these favorable audiences, however, perceive barriers to engaging in the issue, signifying the importance of meeting the learning needs of those who acknowledge anthropogenic climate change, and not only of climate change 'deniers.' While 39% of the general public is 'concerned' or 'alarmed' about global warming, 64% of zoo and aquarium visitors fall into these two "Six Americas" segments. Visitors also differ from the national sample in key attitudinal characteristics related to global warming. For example, nearly two-thirds believe human actions are related to global warming, versus less than one-half of the general public; and approximately 60% think global warming will harm them personally, moderately or a great deal, versus less than 30% of the general public. Moreover, 69% of visitors would like to do more to address climate change. Despite zoo and aquarium visitors' awareness of climate change and motivation to address it, survey results indicate they experience barriers to

  12. A Big Data Guide to Understanding Climate Change: The Case for Theory-Guided Data Science

    OpenAIRE

    Faghmous, James H.; Kumar, Vipin

    2014-01-01

    Global climate change and its impact on human life has become one of our era's greatest challenges. Despite the urgency, data science has had little impact on furthering our understanding of our planet in spite of the abundance of climate data. This is a stark contrast from other fields such as advertising or electronic commerce where big data has been a great success story. This discrepancy stems from the complex nature of climate data as well as the scientific questions climate science brin...

  13. What's in a name? Commonalities and differences in public understanding of "climate change" and "global warming"

    OpenAIRE

    Whitmarsh, Lorraine E.

    2009-01-01

    This paper reports on findings from a survey of public understanding of climate change and global warming amongst residents in the south of England. Whereas much previous research has relied on survey checklists to measure public understanding of climate change, this study employed a more qualitative approach to reveal participants' unprompted conceptions of climate change and global warming. Overall, the findings show a tendency for the public to dissociate themselves from the causes, impact...

  14. Application of characterization, modelling, and analytics towards understanding process-structure linkages in metallic 3D printing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groeber, M. A.; Schwalbach, E.; Donegan, S.; Chaput, K.; Butler, T.; Miller, J.

    2017-07-01

    This paper presents methods for combining process monitoring, thermal modelling and microstructure characterization together to draw process-to-structure relationships in metal additive manufacturing. The paper discusses heterogeneities in the local processing conditions within additively manufactured components and how they affect the resulting material structure. Methods for registering and fusing disparate data sources are presented, and some effort is made to discuss the utility of different data sources for specific microstructural features of interest. It is the intent that this paper will highlight the need for improved understanding of metallic additive manufacturing processes and show that combining experimental data with modelling and advanced data processing and analytics methods will accelerate that understanding.

  15. Understanding safety climate in small automobile collision repair shops.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, David L; Brosseau, Lisa M; Bejan, Anca; Skan, Maryellen; Xi, Min

    2014-01-01

    In the United States, approximately 236,000 people work in 37,600 auto collision-repair businesses. Workers in the collision-repair industry may be exposed to a wide range of physical and chemical hazards. This manuscript examines the relationship of safety climate as reported by collision repair shop workers and owners to: (1) an independent business safety assessment, and (2) employee self-reported work practices. The study was conducted in the Twin Cities metropolitan area. A total of 199 workers from 49 collision shops completed a survey of self-reported work practices and safety climate. Surveys were completed by an owner or manager in all but three shops. In general, self-reported work practices were poor. Workers' scores on safety climate were uniformly lower than those of owners. For workers, there was no correlation between how well the business scored on an independent audit of business safety practices and the safety climate measures they reported. For owners, however, there was a positive correlation between safety climate scores and the business safety assessment. For workers, safety rules and procedures were associated with improved work practices for those engaged in both painting-related and body technician-related activities. The enforcement of safety rules and procedures emerged as a strong factor positively affecting self-reported work practices. These findings identify a simple, cost effective path to reducing hazards in small workplaces. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  16. Climate - 30 questions to understand the Paris Conference

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Canfin, Pascal; Staime, Peter

    2015-01-01

    The authors, who participate in the negotiations on climate, propose an analysis and a description of the various geopolitical, economic and financial challenges which are part of the next conference on climate (Conference of Parties, COP 21) which is to take place in France in December 2015. They notably discuss to which extent France is an example, what Obama can do, why things are changing in China, who are the opponents in the struggle against climate change. While one of the main issue of this conference, and the possible cause of its failure, will be the financial issue, and particularly the promise made in 2009 to mobilise 100 billions dollars every year in favour of developing countries which are the most impacted by global warming, in an interview, one of the author evokes the content of his book: he discusses the general consensus about the human origin of climate change, evokes fossil industries and oil producing countries as opponents to an energy revolution, outlines that energy transition is at the heart of what he calls the Battle of Paris (the conference), outlines the important role France can play despite some weaknesses of its climate policy, the new momentum given by China and the USA. He considers low carbon economy as the main world challenge on the long term

  17. To better understand the IPCC - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Planton, Serge; Jouzel, Jean; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Soussana, Jean-Francois; Hourcade, Jean-Charles

    2013-10-01

    After indication of some figures illustrating the IPCC's activity, and a presentation of the IPCC by some scientists who are members of IPCC groups, this publication, while answering to some popular misconceptions, indicates important dates for climate and for the IPCC, briefly recalls the IPCC creation and mission. It presents its structure and organisation, gives a brief overview of its activities, presents the role, composition and activities of the different working groups. It indicates the key elements for climate and its evolution. It proposes an overview of the content of the fifth IPCC report, and presents and comments the process of elaboration of assessment reports

  18. Understanding Farmers' Response to Climate Variability in Nigeria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this study, farmers 'response to climate variability was examined. Primary and secondary data were used. A multi-stage sampling procedure was adopted in the collection of the primary data using structured questionnaires. Four vegetation zones out of seven where farming is mainly carried out were selected for the study.

  19. Examining uncertainties in the linkage between global climate change and potential human health impacts in the western USA -- Hexachlorobenzene (HCB) as a case study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McKone, T.E.; Daniels, J.I. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States); Goldman, M. [Univ. of California, Davis, CA (United States)

    1994-09-30

    Industrial societies have altered the earth`s environment in ways that could have important, long-term ecological, economic, and health implications. In this paper the authors define, characterize, and evaluate parameter and outcome uncertainties using a model that links global climate change with predictions of chemical exposure and human health risk in the western region of the US. They illustrate the impact of uncertainty about global climate change on such potential secondary outcomes using as a case study the public health consequences related to the behavior environmentally of hexachlorobenzene (HCB), an ubiquitous multimedia pollutant. They begin by constructing a matrix that reveals the linkage between global environmental change and potential regional human-health effects that might be induced directly and/or indirectly by HCB released into the air and water. This matrix is useful for translating critical uncertainties into terms that can be understood and used by policy makers to formulate strategies against potential adverse irreversible health and economic consequences. Specifically, the authors employ a combined uncertainty/sensitivity analysis to investigate how the HCB that has been released is affected by increasing atmospheric temperature and the accompanying climate alterations that are anticipated and how such uncertainty propagates to affect the expected magnitude and calculational precision of estimates of associated potential human exposures and health effects.

  20. Reassessing the stable water isotope record in understanding past climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noone, D.; Simmonds, I.

    1999-01-01

    Full text: The impact of atmospheric circulation on the stable water isotope record has been examined using an atmospheric general circulation model to reassess the validity of using isotopes to reconstruct Earth's climate history. Global temperature changes are classically estimated from the variations in (polar) isotopic values assuming a simple linear relationship. Such a relationship can be justified from first order theoretical considerations given that the isotopic fractionation at the deposition (ice core) site is temperature dependent. However, it is found that the history of a given air mass is more important that local processes because of the net effect of condensation events active along the transport pathway from the source region. Modulations in the hemispheric flow are seen to be crucial to Antarctic precipitation and the isotopic signal. Similarly, both transient and stationary disturbances influence the pathways of the air masses associated with Antarctic precipitation. During different climate regimes, such as that of the Last Glacial Maximum, the properties of these types of disturbances may not be assumed to be the same. As such, we may not assume that the condensation histories are the same as under different climate conditions. Therefore, the veracity of the linear climate reconstructions becomes questionable. Notwithstanding this result, the types of changes to the circulation regime that are expected generally correspond to changes in the global temperature. This fortunate result does not disallow the use of regressional reconstruction, however, the uncertainties associated with these circulation changes are of the same magnitude as the differences suggested by conventional linear regression in climate reconstruction. This indicates that interpretation of ice core data must be accompanied by detailed examination of the atmospheric processes and quantification of the impacts of their changes. Copyright (1999) Geological Society of Australia

  1. Understanding and managing trust at the climate science-policy interface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lacey, Justine; Howden, Mark; Cvitanovic, Christopher; Colvin, R. M.

    2018-01-01

    Climate change effects are accelerating, making the need for appropriate actions informed by sound climate knowledge ever more pressing. A strong climate science-policy relationship facilitates the effective integration of climate knowledge into local, national and global policy processes, increases society's responsiveness to a changing climate, and aligns research activity to policy needs. This complex science-policy relationship requires trust between climate science `producers' and `users', but our understanding of trust at this interface remains largely uncritical. To assist climate scientists and policymakers, this Perspective provides insights into how trust develops and operates at the interface of climate science and policy, and examines the extent to which trust can manage — or even create — risk at this interface.

  2. Understanding the Association Between School Climate and Future Orientation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindstrom Johnson, Sarah; Pas, Elise; Bradshaw, Catherine P

    2016-08-01

    Promoting students' future orientation is inherently a goal of the educational system. Recently, it has received more explicit attention given the increased focus on career readiness. This study aimed to examine the association between school climate and adolescents' report of future orientation using data from youth (N = 27,698; 49.4 % female) across 58 high schools. Three-level hierarchical linear models indicated that perceptions of available emotional and service supports, rules and consequences, and parent engagement were positively related to adolescents' future orientation. Additionally, the school-level average future orientation was significantly related to individuals' future orientation, indicating a potential influence of contextual effects on this construct. Taken together, these findings suggest that interventions targeting school climate may hold promise for promoting future orientation.

  3. Climate-based models for understanding and forecasting dengue epidemics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elodie Descloux

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Dengue dynamics are driven by complex interactions between human-hosts, mosquito-vectors and viruses that are influenced by environmental and climatic factors. The objectives of this study were to analyze and model the relationships between climate, Aedes aegypti vectors and dengue outbreaks in Noumea (New Caledonia, and to provide an early warning system. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Epidemiological and meteorological data were analyzed from 1971 to 2010 in Noumea. Entomological surveillance indices were available from March 2000 to December 2009. During epidemic years, the distribution of dengue cases was highly seasonal. The epidemic peak (March-April lagged the warmest temperature by 1-2 months and was in phase with maximum precipitations, relative humidity and entomological indices. Significant inter-annual correlations were observed between the risk of outbreak and summertime temperature, precipitations or relative humidity but not ENSO. Climate-based multivariate non-linear models were developed to estimate the yearly risk of dengue outbreak in Noumea. The best explicative meteorological variables were the number of days with maximal temperature exceeding 32°C during January-February-March and the number of days with maximal relative humidity exceeding 95% during January. The best predictive variables were the maximal temperature in December and maximal relative humidity during October-November-December of the previous year. For a probability of dengue outbreak above 65% in leave-one-out cross validation, the explicative model predicted 94% of the epidemic years and 79% of the non epidemic years, and the predictive model 79% and 65%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The epidemic dynamics of dengue in Noumea were essentially driven by climate during the last forty years. Specific conditions based on maximal temperature and relative humidity thresholds were determinant in outbreaks occurrence. Their persistence was

  4. Climate-based models for understanding and forecasting dengue epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Descloux, Elodie; Mangeas, Morgan; Menkes, Christophe Eugène; Lengaigne, Matthieu; Leroy, Anne; Tehei, Temaui; Guillaumot, Laurent; Teurlai, Magali; Gourinat, Ann-Claire; Benzler, Justus; Pfannstiel, Anne; Grangeon, Jean-Paul; Degallier, Nicolas; De Lamballerie, Xavier

    2012-01-01

    Dengue dynamics are driven by complex interactions between human-hosts, mosquito-vectors and viruses that are influenced by environmental and climatic factors. The objectives of this study were to analyze and model the relationships between climate, Aedes aegypti vectors and dengue outbreaks in Noumea (New Caledonia), and to provide an early warning system. Epidemiological and meteorological data were analyzed from 1971 to 2010 in Noumea. Entomological surveillance indices were available from March 2000 to December 2009. During epidemic years, the distribution of dengue cases was highly seasonal. The epidemic peak (March-April) lagged the warmest temperature by 1-2 months and was in phase with maximum precipitations, relative humidity and entomological indices. Significant inter-annual correlations were observed between the risk of outbreak and summertime temperature, precipitations or relative humidity but not ENSO. Climate-based multivariate non-linear models were developed to estimate the yearly risk of dengue outbreak in Noumea. The best explicative meteorological variables were the number of days with maximal temperature exceeding 32°C during January-February-March and the number of days with maximal relative humidity exceeding 95% during January. The best predictive variables were the maximal temperature in December and maximal relative humidity during October-November-December of the previous year. For a probability of dengue outbreak above 65% in leave-one-out cross validation, the explicative model predicted 94% of the epidemic years and 79% of the non epidemic years, and the predictive model 79% and 65%, respectively. The epidemic dynamics of dengue in Noumea were essentially driven by climate during the last forty years. Specific conditions based on maximal temperature and relative humidity thresholds were determinant in outbreaks occurrence. Their persistence was also crucial. An operational model that will enable health authorities to anticipate the

  5. Understanding relationships among abundance, extirpation, and climate at ecoregional scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beever, Erik A; Dobrowski, S Z; Long, J; Mynsberge, A R; Piekielek, N B

    2013-07-01

    Recent research on mountain-dwelling species has illustrated changes in species distributional patterns in response to climate change. Abundance of a species will likely provide an earlier warning indicator of change than will occupancy, yet relationships between abundance and climatic factors have received less attention. We tested whether predictors of counts of American pikas (Ochotona princeps) during surveys from the Great Basin region in 1994-1999 and 2003-2008 differed between the two periods. Additionally, we tested whether various modeled aspects of ecohydrology better predicted relative density than did average annual precipitation, and whether risk of site-wide extirpation predicted subsequent population counts of pikas. We observed several patterns of change in pika abundance at range edges that likely constitute early warnings of distributional shifts. Predictors of pika abundance differed strongly between the survey periods, as did pika extirpation patterns previously reported from this region. Additionally, maximum snowpack and growing-season precipitation resulted in better-supported models than those using average annual precipitation, and constituted two of the top three predictors of pika density in the 2000s surveys (affecting pikas perhaps via vegetation). Unexpectedly, we found that extirpation risk positively predicted subsequent population size. Our results emphasize the need to clarify mechanisms underlying biotic responses to recent climate change at organism-relevant scales, to inform management and conservation strategies for species of concern.

  6. Understanding the major transitions in Quaternary climate dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willeit, Matteo; Ganopolski, Andrey

    2017-04-01

    Climate dynamics over the past 3 million years was characterized by strong variability associated with glacial cycles and several distinct regime changes. The Pliocene-Pleistocene Transition (PPT), which happened around 2.7 million years ago, was characterized by the appearance of the large continental ice sheets over Northern Eurasia and North America. For two million years after the PPT climate variability was dominated by relatively symmetric 40 kyr cycles. At around 1 million years ago the dominant mode of climate variability experienced a relatively rapid transition from 40 kyr to strongly asymmetric 100 kyr cycles of larger amplitude (Mid-Pleistocene Transition). Additionally, during the past 800 kyr there are clear differences between the earlier and the later glacial cycles with the last five cycles characterized by larger magnitude of variability (Mid-Brunhes Event). Here, we use the Earth system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-2 to explore possible mechanisms that could explain these regime shifts. CLIMBER-2 incorporates all major components of the Earth system - atmosphere, ocean, land surface, northern hemisphere ice sheets, terrestrial biota and soil carbon, marine biogeochemistry and aeolian dust. The model was optimally tuned to reproduce climate, ice volume and CO2 variability over the last 400,000 years. Using the same model version, we performed a large set of simulations covering the entire Quaternary (3 million years) starting from identical initial conditions and using a parallelization in time technique which consists of starting the model at different times (every 100,000 years) and running each simulation for 500,000 years. The Earth's orbital variations are the only prescribed radiative forcing. Several sets of the Northern Hemisphere orography and sediment thickness representing different stages of landscape evolution during the Quaternary are prescribed as boundary conditions for the ice sheet model and volcanic CO2 outgassing is

  7. Linkages between climate, growth, competition at sea and production of sockeye salmon populations in Bristol Bay, 1955-2000

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nielsen, Jennifer L.; Ruggerone, Gregory T.; Behr, Sarah; Wiggins, Helen; York, Alison

    2005-01-01

    Bristol Bay, Alaska, supports one of the largest and most valuable salmon fisheries in the world. Salmon abundance in Bristol Bay and other northern areas more than doubled after the 1976–77 marine climate shift. However, in 1997–98, a major El Niño event led to unusual oceanographic conditions and Bristol Bay sockeye salmon production was unexpectedly low. Nevertheless, the effect of climate on biological mechanisms leading to greater salmon survival and production are poorly understood. In order to test several hypotheses linking climate to salmon growth, interspecific and intraspecific competition, and salmon production, we measured annual marine and freshwater scale growth of Bristol Bay sockeye salmon, 1955 to 2000.

  8. High-frequency climate linkages between the North Atlantic and the Mediterranean during marine oxygen isotope stage 100 (MIS100)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Becker, Julia; Lourens, L.J.; Raymo, M.E.

    2006-01-01

    High-resolution records of Mediterranean and North Atlantic deep-sea sediments indicate that rapid changes in hydrology and climate occurred during marine oxygen isotope stage 100 (MIS100) (at ~2.52 Ma), which exhibits characteristics similar to late Pleistocene Dansgaard-Oeschger, Bond cycles and

  9. Well-being, work engagement, or both? Explaining the linkage between information provision, communication climate, and performance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    ter Hoeven, C.; Fransen, M.

    2012-01-01

    For organizations, it is valuable to know how employees’ performance can be guaranteed. The aim of the current study was to examine whether information provision may improve employee performance by enhancing communication climate, work engagement, and employee well-being. To this end, employees (N =

  10. Western Australian High School Students' Understandings about the Socioscientific Issue of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawson, Vaille

    2015-05-01

    Climate change is one of the most significant science issues facing humanity; yet, teaching students about climate change is challenging: not only is it multidisciplinary, but also it is contentious and debated in political, social and media forums. Students need to be equipped with an understanding of climate change science to be able to participate in this discourse. The purpose of this study was to examine Western Australian high school students' understanding of climate change and the greenhouse effect, in order to identify their alternative conceptions about climate change science and provide a baseline for more effective teaching. A questionnaire designed to elicit students' understanding and alternative conceptions was completed by 438 Year 10 students (14-15 years old). A further 20 students were interviewed. Results showed that students know different features of both climate change and the greenhouse effect, however not necessarily all of them and the relationships between. Five categories of alternative conceptions were identified. The categories were (1) the greenhouse effect and the ozone layer; (2) types of greenhouse gases; (3) types of radiation; (4) weather and climate and (5) air pollution. These findings provide science educators a basis upon which to develop strategies and curriculum resources to improve their students' understanding and decision-making skills about the socioscientific issue, climate change.

  11. Understanding Differences in Chemistry Climate Model Projections of Stratospheric Ozone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglass, A. R.; Strahan, S. E.; Oman, L. D.; Stolarski, R. S.

    2014-01-01

    Chemistry climate models (CCMs) are used to project future evolution of stratospheric ozone as concentrations of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) decrease and greenhouse gases increase, cooling the stratosphere. CCM projections exhibit not only many common features but also a broad range of values for quantities such as year of ozone return to 1980 and global ozone level at the end of the 21st century. Multiple linear regression is applied to each of 14 CCMs to separate ozone response to ODS concentration change from that due to climate change. We show that the sensitivity of lower stratospheric ozone to chlorine change Delta Ozone/Delta inorganic chlorine is a near-linear function of partitioning of total inorganic chlorine into its reservoirs; both inorganic chlorine and its partitioning are largely controlled by lower stratospheric transport. CCMs with best performance on transport diagnostics agree with observations for chlorine reservoirs and produce similar ozone responses to chlorine change. After 2035, differences in Delta Ozone/Delta inorganic chlorine contribute little to the spread in CCM projections as the anthropogenic contribution to inorganic chlorine becomes unimportant. Differences among upper stratospheric ozone increases due to temperature decreases are explained by differences in ozone sensitivity to temperature change Delta Ozone/Delta T due to different contributions from various ozone loss processes, each with its own temperature dependence. Ozone decrease in the tropical lower stratosphere caused by a projected speedup in the Brewer-Dobson circulation may or may not be balanced by ozone increases in the middle- and high-latitude lower stratosphere and upper troposphere. This balance, or lack thereof, contributes most to the spread in late 21st century projections.

  12. High-frequency climate linkages between the North Atlantic and the Mediterranean during marine oxygen isotope stage 100 (MIS100)

    OpenAIRE

    Becker, Julia; Lourens, L.J.; Raymo, M.E.

    2006-01-01

    High-resolution records of Mediterranean and North Atlantic deep-sea sediments indicate that rapid changes in hydrology and climate occurred during marine oxygen isotope stage 100 (MIS100) (at ∼2.52 Ma), which exhibits characteristics similar to late Pleistocene Dansgaard-Oeschger, Bond cycles and Heinrich events. As in the late Pleistocene, North Atlantic oceanographic and atmospheric changes were probably transmitted into the Mediterranean by some combination of surface water inflow and Atl...

  13. The added complications of climate change: understanding and managing biodiversity and ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amanda Staudt,; Allison K. Leidner,; Jennifer Howard,; Kate A. Brauman,; Jeffrey S. Dukes,; Hansen, Lara J.; Paukert, Craig; Sabo, John L.; Solorzano, Luis A.

    2013-01-01

    Ecosystems around the world are already threatened by land-use and land-cover change, extraction of natural resources, biological disturbances, and pollution. These environmental stressors have been the primary source of ecosystem degradation to date, and climate change is now exacerbating some of their effects. Ecosystems already under stress are likely to have more rapid and acute reactions to climate change; it is therefore useful to understand how multiple stresses will interact, especially as the magnitude of climate change increases. Understanding these interactions could be critically important in the design of climate adaptation strategies, especially because actions taken by other sectors (eg energy, agriculture, transportation) to address climate change may create new ecosystem stresses.

  14. Adaptation to climate change and climate variability:The importance of understanding agriculture as performance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Crane, T.A.; Roncoli, C.; Hoogenboom, G.

    2011-01-01

    Most climate change studies that address potential impacts and potential adaptation strategies are largely based on modelling technologies. While models are useful for visualizing potential future outcomes and evaluating options for potential adaptation, they do not adequately represent and

  15. The Cenomanian-Turonian Boundary Event: Linkage of High-Resolution Terrestrial and Marine Records of a Major Climate Perturbation During Peak Greenhouse Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sageman, B. B.; Arthur, M. A.; Kenig, F.; Laurin, J.; McElwain, J. C.; Meyers, S. R.

    2004-12-01

    Interdisciplinary studies of paleoclimate provide a critical source of information about the nature and magnitude of changes in the natural climate system, of thresholds and feedbacks in the biogeochemical cycles that modulate climate, and of the biological consequences of extreme climate transitions and states. Unfortunately, many studies of ancient climate are constrained by low temporal resolution, diminished reliability of proxy data, and a lack of information about linkages between different components of the climate system. This talk will summarize recent improvements in the temporal resolution of biogeochemical and paleobiological data across the marine record of the Cenomanian-Turonian Boundary Event (CTBE), and extension of that record into the terrestrial realm of the Western Interior of North America. The CTBE is hypothesized to represent a brief interval of global marine organic carbon burial that occurred during the peak Cretaceous greenhouse. It is thought to have caused an oscillation in pCO2 comparable to, or greater in magnitude than glacial-interglacial cycles. This is believed to have caused transient cooling followed by return to maximum Cretaceous warmth with major impacts on the ecology and evolution of terrestrial ecosystems. Efforts to quantify the pCO2 effect, to assess available paleoclimate indicators, and to evaluate changes in terrestrial ecosystems across this event have been limited by the constraints mentioned above. However, a number of recent advances are facilitating a new generation of paleoclimatic analysis of the CTBE : 1) development of an orbital time scale for the C-T stratotype in central Colorado with average temporal resolution of 8 kyrs; 2) use of this time scale to calculate burial fluxes for key paleoenvironmental proxies; 3) export of the time scale to a coeval terrestrial section containing fossil whole plant and cuticle material based on high-resolution lithostratigraphic, biostratigraphic and chemostratigraphic

  16. Linkages between human health and ocean health: a participatory climate change vulnerability assessment for marine mammal harvesters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gadamus, Lily

    2013-01-01

    Indigenous residents of Alaska's Bering Strait Region depend, both culturally and nutritionally, on ice seal and walrus harvests. Currently, climate change and resultant increases in marine industrial development threaten these species and the cultures that depend on them. To document: (a) local descriptions of the importance of marine mammal hunting; (b) traditional methods for determining if harvested marine mammals are safe to consume; and (c) marine mammal outcomes that would have adverse effects on community health, the perceived causes of these outcomes, strategies for preventing these outcomes and community adaptations to outcomes that cannot be mitigated. Semi-structured interviews and focus groups were conducted with 82 indigenous hunters and elders from the Bering Strait region. Standard qualitative analysis was conducted on interview transcripts, which were coded for both inductive and deductive codes. Responses describing marine mammal food safety and importance are presented using inductively generated categories. Responses describing negative marine mammal outcomes are presented in a vulnerability framework, which links human health outcomes to marine conditions. Project participants perceived that shipping noise and pollution, as well as marine mammal food source depletion by industrial fishing, posed the greatest threats to marine mammal hunting traditions. Proposed adaptations primarily fell into 2 categories: (a) greater tribal influence over marine policy; and (b) documentation of traditional knowledge for local use. This paper presents 1 example of documenting traditional knowledge as an adaptation strategy: traditional methods for determining if marine mammal food is safe to eat. Participant recommendations indicate that 1 strategy to promote rural Alaskan adaptation to climate change is to better incorporate local knowledge and values into decision-making processes. Participant interest in documenting traditional knowledge for local use also

  17. Linkages between human health and ocean health: a participatory climate change vulnerability assessment for marine mammal harvesters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lily Gadamus

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Background. Indigenous residents of Alaska’s Bering Strait Region depend, both culturally and nutritionally, on ice seal and walrus harvests. Currently, climate change and resultant increases in marine industrial development threaten these species and the cultures that depend on them. Objective. To document: (a local descriptions of the importance of marine mammal hunting; (b traditional methods for determining if harvested marine mammals are safe to consume; and (c marine mammal outcomes that would have adverse effects on community health, the perceived causes of these outcomes, strategies for preventing these outcomes and community adaptations to outcomes that cannot be mitigated. Design. Semi-structured interviews and focus groups were conducted with 82 indigenous hunters and elders from the Bering Strait region. Standard qualitative analysis was conducted on interview transcripts, which were coded for both inductive and deductive codes. Responses describing marine mammal food safety and importance are presented using inductively generated categories. Responses describing negative marine mammal outcomes are presented in a vulnerability framework, which links human health outcomes to marine conditions. Results. Project participants perceived that shipping noise and pollution, as well as marine mammal food source depletion by industrial fishing, posed the greatest threats to marine mammal hunting traditions. Proposed adaptations primarily fell into 2 categories: (a greater tribal influence over marine policy; and (b documentation of traditional knowledge for local use. This paper presents 1 example of documenting traditional knowledge as an adaptation strategy: traditional methods for determining if marine mammal food is safe to eat. Conclusions. Participant recommendations indicate that 1 strategy to promote rural Alaskan adaptation to climate change is to better incorporate local knowledge and values into decision-making processes

  18. Understanding how to maintain compliance in the current regulatory climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bignell, D.T.; Burns, R.

    1995-01-01

    High level radioactive waste facilities must maintain compliance with all regulatory requirements, even those requirements that have been promulgated after the facility was placed into operation. Facilities must aggressively pursue compliance because environmental laws often impose strict liability for violations; therefore, an honest mistake is no defense. Radioactive waste management is constantly under the public microscope, particularly those facilities that handle high-level radioactive waste. The Savannah River Site has effectively met the challenges of regulatory compliance in its HLRW facilities and plans are being formulated to meet future regulatory requirements as well. Understanding, aggressively achieving, and clearly demonstrating compliance is essential for the continued operations of radioactive waste management facilities. This paper examines how HLRW facilities are impacted by regulatory requirements and how compliance in this difficult area is achieved and maintained

  19. What is preventing relevant understanding of climate science in the public, media, and policy arenas?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reisman, J. P.

    2012-12-01

    We need to do a critical self examination of why the communication has thus far failed to sufficiently convey relevance in order to provide a basis for public and policy-maker understanding of the science. This session will focus on major impediments to communicating relevance and the foundations of climate science in two target audiences, those that are unsure, and those that have been misled. The question of 'why' is key. Considerations focus on social psychology and confluence effects that improve, or impede, climate communications and achievement of relevant understanding. Key components of human understanding require context in order to be addressed. Understanding these components form the basis for more effective climate communications.

  20. Land - Ocean Climate Linkages and the Human Evolution - New ICDP and IODP Drilling Initiatives in the East African Rift Valley and SW Indian Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zahn, R.; Feibel, C.; Co-Pis, Icdp/Iodp

    2009-04-01

    enable us to establish the linkages between the ocean climatology of the SW Indian and terrestrial climates of Eastern Africa during key periods of global climate change. Combining the ICDP records of East African terrestrial climate at key hominin sites with IODP records of marine climate variability at the SE African continental margin will help to test if pulses of hominin evolutionary innovation were linked with periods of enhanced variability of local terrestrial environments and marine climatology of the Indian Ocean. * co-PIs of the ICDP initiative HSPDP are A.S. Cohen, R. Arrowsmith, A.K. Behrensmeyer, C. Feibel, R. Johnson, Z. Kubsa, D. Olago, R. Potts, R. Renaut * co-PIs of the IODP initiative SAFARI are R. Zahn, I. Hall, R. Schneider, M. Á. Bárcena, S. Barker, A. Biastoch, Chr. Charles, J. Compton, R. Cowling, P. Diz, L. Dupont, J.-A. Flores, S. Goldstein, S. Hemming, K. Holmgren, J. Lee-Thorp, G. Knorr, C. Lear, A. Mazaud, G. Mortyn, F. Peeters, B. Preu, R. Rickaby, J. Rogers, A. Rosell-Mele, Chr. Reason, V. Spiess, M. Trauth, G. Uenzelmann-Neben, S. Weldeab, P. Ziveri

  1. The Promise and Limitations of Using Analogies to Improve Decision-Relevant Understanding of Climate Change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaitlin T Raimi

    Full Text Available To make informed choices about how to address climate change, members of the public must develop ways to consider established facts of climate science and the uncertainties about its future trajectories, in addition to the risks attendant to various responses, including non-response, to climate change. One method suggested for educating the public about these issues is the use of simple mental models, or analogies comparing climate change to familiar domains such as medical decision making, disaster preparedness, or courtroom trials. Two studies were conducted using online participants in the U.S.A. to test the use of analogies to highlight seven key decision-relevant elements of climate change, including uncertainties about when and where serious damage may occur, its unprecedented and progressive nature, and tradeoffs in limiting climate change. An internal meta-analysis was then conducted to estimate overall effect sizes across the two studies. Analogies were not found to inform knowledge about climate literacy facts. However, results suggested that people found the medical analogy helpful and that it led people-especially political conservatives-to better recognize several decision-relevant attributes of climate change. These effects were weak, perhaps reflecting a well-documented and overwhelming effect of political ideology on climate change communication and education efforts in the U.S.A. The potential of analogies and similar education tools to improve understanding and communication in a polarized political environment are discussed.

  2. The Promise and Limitations of Using Analogies to Improve Decision-Relevant Understanding of Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raimi, Kaitlin T; Stern, Paul C; Maki, Alexander

    2017-01-01

    To make informed choices about how to address climate change, members of the public must develop ways to consider established facts of climate science and the uncertainties about its future trajectories, in addition to the risks attendant to various responses, including non-response, to climate change. One method suggested for educating the public about these issues is the use of simple mental models, or analogies comparing climate change to familiar domains such as medical decision making, disaster preparedness, or courtroom trials. Two studies were conducted using online participants in the U.S.A. to test the use of analogies to highlight seven key decision-relevant elements of climate change, including uncertainties about when and where serious damage may occur, its unprecedented and progressive nature, and tradeoffs in limiting climate change. An internal meta-analysis was then conducted to estimate overall effect sizes across the two studies. Analogies were not found to inform knowledge about climate literacy facts. However, results suggested that people found the medical analogy helpful and that it led people-especially political conservatives-to better recognize several decision-relevant attributes of climate change. These effects were weak, perhaps reflecting a well-documented and overwhelming effect of political ideology on climate change communication and education efforts in the U.S.A. The potential of analogies and similar education tools to improve understanding and communication in a polarized political environment are discussed.

  3. Sixth-Grade Students' Progress in Understanding the Mechanisms of Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Visintainer, Tammie; Linn, Marcia

    2015-04-01

    Developing solutions for complex issues such as global climate change requires an understanding of the mechanisms involved. This study reports on the impact of a technology-enhanced unit designed to improve understanding of global climate change, its mechanisms, and their relationship to everyday energy use. Global Climate Change, implemented in the Web-based Inquiry Science Environment (WISE), engages sixth-grade students in conducting virtual investigations using NetLogo models to foster an understanding of core mechanisms including the greenhouse effect. Students then test how the greenhouse effect is enhanced by everyday energy use. This study draws on three data sources: (1) pre- and post-unit interviews, (2) analysis of embedded assessments following virtual investigations, and (3) contrasting cases of two students (normative vs. non-normative understanding of the greenhouse effect). Results show the value of using virtual investigations for teaching the mechanisms associated with global climate change. Interviews document that students hold a wide range of ideas about the mechanisms driving global climate change. Investigations with models help students use evidence-based reasoning to distinguish their ideas. Results show that understanding the greenhouse effect offers a foundation for building connections between everyday energy use and increases in global temperature. An impediment to establishing coherent understanding was the persistence of an alternative conception about ozone as an explanation for climate change. These findings illustrate the need for regular revision of curriculum based on classroom trials. We discuss key design features of models and instructional revisions that can transform the teaching and learning of global climate change.

  4. Understanding hydro-climatic drivers of infectious diarrheal diseases in South Asia and their projected risks from regional climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasan, M. A.; Akanda, A. S.; Jutla, A.; Huq, A.; Colwell, R. R.

    2017-12-01

    Diarrheal diseases remain a major threat to global public health and are the second largest cause of death for children under the age of five. Cholera and Rotavirus diarrhea together comprise more than two-thirds of the diarrheal morbidity in South Asia. Recent studies have shown strong influences of hydrologic processes and climatic variabilities on the onset, intensity, and seasonality of the outbreaks of these diseases. However, our understanding of the propagation and manifestation of these diseases in a changing climate in vulnerable regions of the world are still limited. In this study, we build on our understanding of the role of the hydro-climatic drivers of diarrheal diseases in South Asia in recent decades to project the probable risks of the diseases in this century using the climate projection scenarios from dynamically downscaled climate models. To build the current model, we conducted a multivariate logistic regression assessment using 34 climate indices to examine the role of temperature and rainfall extremes over the seasonality of rotavirus and cholera over a South Asian country, Bangladesh. We utilize the availability of long and reliable time-series of cholera and rotavirus from Bangladesh and conducted a temporal and spatial analysis derived from both ground and satellite observations. For projecting the future risks of the diseases, we used five bias-corrected Regional Climate Model (RCM) results of the CMIP5 series under the RCP 4.5 scenario. Cholera risk shows a significantly higher rate of increase compared to Rotavirus in Bangladesh in the 21st century. As the disease is significantly influenced by extreme rainfall, majority projections showed a significant increase in flood-driven cholera risk. Most RCMs suggest a warmer winter in future years, suggesting reduced risk for Rotavirus. However, as the dryness of the climate is also highly correlated with rotavirus epidemics, the incremental risk of the disease due to drier winters would

  5. Introducing a New Elementary GLOBE Book on Climate: Supporting Educators and Students in their Understanding of the Concepts Underlying Climate and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanitski, D.; Hatheway, B.; Gardiner, L. S.; Taylor, J.; Chambers, L. H.

    2016-12-01

    Much of the focus on climate literacy in K-12 occurs in middle and high school, where teachers and students can dig into the science in some depth. It is important, however, to introduce this topic at an early age, building on a child's natural curiosity about the world around them - but without overwhelming them with frightening climate change impacts. In some U.S. school systems, a recent focus on standardized testing has crowded out science instruction in order to bring up literacy scores. To give teachers a resource to maintain some science instruction under these conditions, a series of Elementary GLOBE books have been developed. These fictional stories describe sound science and engineering practices that are essential for students to learn the process of science while expanding literacy skills, strongly encouraged in the Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS). The main concepts developed in a new Elementary GLOBE book on climate, titled "What in the World Is Happening to Our Climate?", will be introduced in this presentation. This book complements six other Earth System Science modules within the Elementary GLOBE curriculum and is freely available on the GLOBE website (www.globe.gov/elementaryglobe). The book discusses the concept that climate is changing in different ways and places around the world, and what happens to the climate in one place affects other locations across the globe. Supporting ideas clarify the difference between weather and climate, introduce climate science concepts, reveal the impacts of sea level rise, and help students understand that, while humans are contributing to climate change, they can also participate in solutions that address this challenge. Accompanying teacher's notes and companion classroom activities will be described to help elementary school teachers understand how to approach the subject of climate change with their students.

  6. The CARIACO Ocean Time-Series: two decades of oceanographic observations to understand linkages between biogeochemistry, ecology, and long-term environmental variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorenzoni, L.; Muller-Karger, F. E.; Rueda-Roa, D. T.; Thunell, R.; Scranton, M. I.; Taylor, G. T.; benitez-Nelson, C. R.; Montes, E.; Astor, Y. M.; Rojas, J.

    2016-02-01

    The CARIACO Ocean Time-Series project, located in the Cariaco Basin off the coast of Venezuela, seeks to understand relationships between hydrography, primary production, community composition, microbial activity, particle fluxes, and element cycling in the water column, and how variations in these processes are preserved in sediments accumulating in this anoxic basin. CARIACO uses autonomous and shipboard measurements to understand ecological and biogeochemical changes and how these relate to regional and global climatic/ocean variability. CARIACO is a model for national ocean observing programs in Central/South America, and has been developed as a community facility platform with open access to all data (http://imars.marine.usf.edu/cariaco). Research resulting from this program has contributed to knowledge about the decomposition and cycling of particles, the biological pump, and to our understanding of the ecology and oceanography of oxygen minimum zones. Despite this basin being anoxic below 250m, remineralization rates of organic matter are comparable to those in well oxygenated waters. A dynamic microbial community significantly influences carbon and nutrient biogeochemical cycling throughout the water column. Since 1995, declining particulate organic carbon fluxes have been measured throughout the water column using sediment traps, likely in response to declining Chl-a concentrations and smaller phytoplankton which have replaced the larger taxa over the past decade. This community shift appears to be caused by regional changes in the physical regime. CARIACO also recorded marked long-term changes in surface and deep DIC in response to a combination of factors including surface water warming. The observations of CARIACO highlight the importance of a sustained, holistic approach to studying biodiversity, ecology and the marine carbon cycle to predict potential impacts of climate change on the ocean's ecosystem services and carbon sequestration efficiency.

  7. Need of paleoclimatic reconstructions to understand natural and anthropogenic climatic hazards

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Nigam, R.

    in monsoon rainfall as her economy largely depends on rainfall. Such climatic events (floods, droughts etc.) and their effects on society were recorded right from early historic period. Such historical climatic records are mostly available in the inscriptions... of the fishes. which would in turn affect the economy of the country. Along the Indian coast line, no direct evidence is available to understand the migratory changes of fishes in the past. Quest for an additional tool to decipher such eventualities in the past...

  8. A Big Data Guide to Understanding Climate Change: The Case for Theory-Guided Data Science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faghmous, James H; Kumar, Vipin

    2014-09-01

    Global climate change and its impact on human life has become one of our era's greatest challenges. Despite the urgency, data science has had little impact on furthering our understanding of our planet in spite of the abundance of climate data. This is a stark contrast from other fields such as advertising or electronic commerce where big data has been a great success story. This discrepancy stems from the complex nature of climate data as well as the scientific questions climate science brings forth. This article introduces a data science audience to the challenges and opportunities to mine large climate datasets, with an emphasis on the nuanced difference between mining climate data and traditional big data approaches. We focus on data, methods, and application challenges that must be addressed in order for big data to fulfill their promise with regard to climate science applications. More importantly, we highlight research showing that solely relying on traditional big data techniques results in dubious findings, and we instead propose a theory-guided data science paradigm that uses scientific theory to constrain both the big data techniques as well as the results-interpretation process to extract accurate insight from large climate data .

  9. The Colville River Delta as a Natural Recorder of Historical Changes in Organic Carbon Sources: Linkages with Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schreiner, K. M.; Bianchi, T. S.; Allison, M. A.; Miller, A. J.; Marcantonio, F.

    2011-12-01

    The Colville River in Alaska is the largest river in North America that drains only continuously permafrosted tundra, and as such provides a unique signal of historical changes in one of the world's most vulnerable areas to climate changes. Additionally, the Colville flows into Simpson's Lagoon, an area of the Alaskan Beaufort coast protected by a barrier island chain, lessening the impacts of Arctic storms and ice grounding on sediment mixing. Cores collected from the Colville river delta in August of 2010 were found to be composed of muddy, organic-rich, well-laminated sediments. The 2.5 to 3 meter length of each core spans about one to two thousand years of Holocene history, including the entire Anthropocene and much of the late Holocene. Two cores were sampled for this data set - one from close to the river mouth, and one from farther east in Simpson's Lagoon. Samples were taken every 2 cm for the entire length of both cores. Bulk analyses including percent organic carbon, percent nitrogen, and stable carbon isotopic analysis were performed, and compound specific analyses including lignin-phenol and algal pigment analyses were performed. These analyses show significant changes in carbon storage over the time period represented by the cores, and appear to indicate changes in terrestrial carbon delivery to the cores over time. Specifically, the delivery of more isotopically depleted carbon from -27% at depth to values oscillating to -33% at the surface likely indicates two things, summarized below, which are also supported by variations in chemical biomarkers. These results show, one, an increase in the delivery to the lagoon of woody shrub inputs coupled with, two, an increase in the delivery of fresh-water phytoplankton detritus over the past few hundred years. These recorded changes in deltaic sediments may, in part, be consistent with previous observations of enhanced woody shrub encroachment and an increase in the areal extent of permafrost lakes on the

  10. Using Scientific Argumentation in a Science Methods Course to Improve Preservice Teachers' Understanding of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambert, J. L.; Bleicher, R. E.; Soden, B. J.

    2014-12-01

    Given that K-12 students have numerous alternative conceptions, it is critical that teachers have an understanding of the fundamental science underlying climate change (Feldman et al., 2010). Many teachers, however, do not demonstrate adequate understanding of these concepts (Daskolia et al., 2006). Argumentation has been identified as a mechanism for conceptual change (Mercer et al., 2004). Even with several educational initiatives promoting and supporting the use of argumentation as an instructional practice, teachers often struggle to implement argumentation in the classroom (Sampson & Blanchard, 2012). To remedy both issues above, we have designed an innovative methods course to provide background in climate change knowledge and argumentation instruction. In our methods course, we utilize Climate Science Investigations (CSI), an online, interactive series of modules and teaching resources funded by a NASA grant to support teachers learning about the basic science concepts underlying climate change. A key assignment is to develop and present an evidence-based scientific argument. The teachers were assigned a typical question and claim of climate skeptics and asked to conduct research on the scientific findings to prepare a counter-argument (rebuttal). This study examined changes in 60 preservice teachers' knowledge and perceptions about climate change after participation in the course. The teachers' understanding of fundamental concepts increased significantly. Their perceptions about climate change became more aligned to those of climate scientists. Findings suggest that scientific argumentation can play an effective role in the preparation of science educators. In addition to reporting findings in more detail, methods course activities, particularly in argumentation, will be shared in our presentation.

  11. Understanding, modeling and predicting weather and climate extremes: Challenges and opportunities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jana Sillmann

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Weather and climate extremes are identified as major areas necessitating further progress in climate research and have thus been selected as one of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP Grand Challenges. Here, we provide an overview of current challenges and opportunities for scientific progress and cross-community collaboration on the topic of understanding, modeling and predicting extreme events based on an expert workshop organized as part of the implementation of the WCRP Grand Challenge on Weather and Climate Extremes. In general, the development of an extreme event depends on a favorable initial state, the presence of large-scale drivers, and positive local feedbacks, as well as stochastic processes. We, therefore, elaborate on the scientific challenges related to large-scale drivers and local-to-regional feedback processes leading to extreme events. A better understanding of the drivers and processes will improve the prediction of extremes and will support process-based evaluation of the representation of weather and climate extremes in climate model simulations. Further, we discuss how to address these challenges by focusing on short-duration (less than three days and long-duration (weeks to months extreme events, their underlying mechanisms and approaches for their evaluation and prediction.

  12. Crucial knowledge gaps in current understanding of climate change impacts on coral reef fishes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, S K; Adjeroud, M; Bellwood, D R; Berumen, M L; Booth, D; Bozec, Y-Marie; Chabanet, P; Cheal, A; Cinner, J; Depczynski, M; Feary, D A; Gagliano, M; Graham, N A J; Halford, A R; Halpern, B S; Harborne, A R; Hoey, A S; Holbrook, S J; Jones, G P; Kulbiki, M; Letourneur, Y; De Loma, T L; McClanahan, T; McCormick, M I; Meekan, M G; Mumby, P J; Munday, P L; Ohman, M C; Pratchett, M S; Riegl, B; Sano, M; Schmitt, R J; Syms, C

    2010-03-15

    Expert opinion was canvassed to identify crucial knowledge gaps in current understanding of climate change impacts on coral reef fishes. Scientists that had published three or more papers on the effects of climate and environmental factors on reef fishes were invited to submit five questions that, if addressed, would improve our understanding of climate change effects on coral reef fishes. Thirty-three scientists provided 155 questions, and 32 scientists scored these questions in terms of: (i) identifying a knowledge gap, (ii) achievability, (iii) applicability to a broad spectrum of species and reef habitats, and (iv) priority. Forty-two per cent of the questions related to habitat associations and community dynamics of fish, reflecting the established effects and immediate concern relating to climate-induced coral loss and habitat degradation. However, there were also questions on fish demographics, physiology, behaviour and management, all of which could be potentially affected by climate change. Irrespective of their individual expertise and background, scientists scored questions from different topics similarly, suggesting limited bias and recognition of a need for greater interdisciplinary and collaborative research. Presented here are the 53 highest-scoring unique questions. These questions should act as a guide for future research, providing a basis for better assessment and management of climate change impacts on coral reefs and associated fish communities.

  13. Crucial knowledge gaps in current understanding of climate change impacts on coral reef fishes

    KAUST Repository

    Wilson, S. K.

    2010-02-26

    Expert opinion was canvassed to identify crucial knowledge gaps in current understanding of climate change impacts on coral reef fishes. Scientists that had published three or more papers on the effects of climate and environmental factors on reef fishes were invited to submit five questions that, if addressed, would improve our understanding of climate change effects on coral reef fishes. Thirty-three scientists provided 155 questions, and 32 scientists scored these questions in terms of: (i) identifying a knowledge gap, (ii) achievability, (iii) applicability to a broad spectrum of species and reef habitats, and (iv) priority. Forty-two per cent of the questions related to habitat associations and community dynamics of fish, reflecting the established effects and immediate concern relating to climate-induced coral loss and habitat degradation. However, there were also questions on fish demographics, physiology, behaviour and management, all of which could be potentially affected by climate change. Irrespective of their individual expertise and background, scientists scored questions from different topics similarly, suggesting limited bias and recognition of a need for greater interdisciplinary and collaborative research. Presented here are the 53 highest-scoring unique questions. These questions should act as a guide for future research, providing a basis for better assessment and management of climate change impacts on coral reefs and associated fish communities.

  14. Contributions, Controversies, and Credibility: Citizen Science and Understandings of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shirk, J.; Bonney, R.

    2011-12-01

    Studying the impacts of global climate change on earth systems requires data to be gathered at vast spatial and temporal scales. Numerous citizen science projects, including the National Audubon Society Christmas Bird Count and the Cooperative Observer Program of the National Weather Service, engage volunteers in collecting environmental information. Some projects span countries or even continents and have been operating for decades, meaning long-term and geographically distributed data are already available for analysis. Citizen science projects have made significant contributions to understanding the effects of climate change by revealing changing patterns in phenology, shifts in species' ranges and distributions, and trends in temperature and rainfall patterns. In addition, citizen science presents opportunities for developing public understanding of climate change and its consequences. According to the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication (YPCCC), public responses to this issue can be categorized into six groups - from alarmed to dismissive - with each group characterized as much by attitudes about climate change as by understandings of the topic. Participants in citizen science projects run by the Cornell Lab of Ornithology, who tend to be highly educated and hold positive views towards the environment, exhibit an unexpected degree of skepticism and misunderstandings regarding climate science. This parallels findings by YPCCC suggesting that, on the issue of climate change, the American public is more meaningfully segmented by ideology and cultural affiliation than by educational background and economic status. No matter how they are segmented, if the public perceives a controversy, individuals often decide what to believe based on who they trust to impart credible information. Citizen science has long endured - and in most fields, has largely overcome - questions of credibility. With refined and sophisticated measures to ensure data quality, the

  15. Chronic disease and climate change: understanding co-benefits and their policy implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capon, Anthony G; Rissel, Chris E

    2010-01-01

    Chronic disease and climate change are major public policy challenges facing governments around the world. An improved understanding of the relationship between chronic disease and climate change should enable improved policy formulation to support both human health and the health of the planet. Chronic disease and climate change are both unintended consequences of our way of life, and are attributable in part to the ready availability of inexpensive fossil fuel energy. There are co-benefits for health from actions to address climate change. For example, substituting physical activity and a vegetable-rich diet for motor vehicle transport and a meat-rich diet is both good for health and good for the planet. We should encourage ways of living that use less carbon as these can be healthy ways of living, for both individuals and society. Quantitative modelling of co-benefits should inform policy responses.

  16. When to conduct probabilistic linkage vs. deterministic linkage? A simulation study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Ying; Matsuyama, Yutaka; Ohashi, Yasuo; Setoguchi, Soko

    2015-08-01

    When unique identifiers are unavailable, successful record linkage depends greatly on data quality and types of variables available. While probabilistic linkage theoretically captures more true matches than deterministic linkage by allowing imperfection in identifiers, studies have shown inconclusive results likely due to variations in data quality, implementation of linkage methodology and validation method. The simulation study aimed to understand data characteristics that affect the performance of probabilistic vs. deterministic linkage. We created ninety-six scenarios that represent real-life situations using non-unique identifiers. We systematically introduced a range of discriminative power, rate of missing and error, and file size to increase linkage patterns and difficulties. We assessed the performance difference of linkage methods using standard validity measures and computation time. Across scenarios, deterministic linkage showed advantage in PPV while probabilistic linkage showed advantage in sensitivity. Probabilistic linkage uniformly outperformed deterministic linkage as the former generated linkages with better trade-off between sensitivity and PPV regardless of data quality. However, with low rate of missing and error in data, deterministic linkage performed not significantly worse. The implementation of deterministic linkage in SAS took less than 1min, and probabilistic linkage took 2min to 2h depending on file size. Our simulation study demonstrated that the intrinsic rate of missing and error of linkage variables was key to choosing between linkage methods. In general, probabilistic linkage was a better choice, but for exceptionally good quality data (<5% error), deterministic linkage was a more resource efficient choice. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. ROS signalling in a destabilised world: A molecular understanding of climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carmody, Melanie; Waszczak, Cezary; Idänheimo, Niina; Saarinen, Timo; Kangasjärvi, Jaakko

    2016-09-20

    Climate change results in increased intensity and frequency of extreme abiotic and biotic stress events. In plants, reactive oxygen species (ROS) accumulate in proportion to the level of stress and are major signalling and regulatory metabolites coordinating growth, defence, acclimation and cell death. Our knowledge of ROS homeostasis, sensing, and signalling is therefore key to understanding the impacts of climate change at the molecular level. Current research is uncovering new insights into temporal-spatial, cell-to-cell and systemic ROS signalling pathways, particularly how these affect plant growth, defence, and more recently acclimation mechanisms behind stress priming and long term stress memory. Understanding the stabilising and destabilising factors of ROS homeostasis and signalling in plants exposed to extreme and fluctuating stress will concomitantly reveal how to address future climate change challenges in global food security and biodiversity management. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

  18. Urban High School Students' Critical Science Agency: Conceptual Understandings and Environmental Actions around Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNeill, Katherine L.; Vaughn, Meredith Houle

    2012-01-01

    This study investigates how the enactment of a climate change curriculum supports students' development of critical science agency, which includes students developing deep understandings of science concepts and the ability to take action at the individual and community levels. We examined the impact of a four to six week urban ecology curriculum…

  19. Understanding subtropical cloud feedbacks in anthropogenic climate change simulations of CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myers, T. A.; Norris, J. R.

    2014-12-01

    Subtropical marine boundary layer clouds over the eastern subtropics are poorly simulated by climate models and contribute substantially to inter-model differences in climate sensitivity. The aim of the present study is to better understand inter-model differences in projected cloud changes and to constrain the cloud feedback to warming. To do this, we compute independent relationships of cloud properties (cloud fraction, cloud-top height, and cloud radiative effect) to interannual variations in sea surface temperature, estimated inversion strength, horizontal surface temperature advection, free-tropospheric humidity, and subsidence using observations and as simulated by models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5. Each relationship is considered to be independent because it represents the association between some cloud property and a meteorological parameter when the other parameters are held constant. We approximate modelled cloud trends in climate change simulations as the sum of the simulated cloud/meteorology relationships multiplied by the respective meteorological trends. We compare these estimated cloud trends to the sum of the observed cloud/meteorology relationships multiplied by the simulated meteorological trends. This method allows us to better understand the sources of inter-model differences in projected cloud changes, including whether cloud/meteorology relationships or meteorological trends dominate the spread of cloud changes. We approximate the true cloud trend due to climate change as the sum of the observed cloud/meteorology relationships multiplied by the multi-model mean meteorological trends. The results may provide an observational and model constraint on climate sensitivity.

  20. Forests under climate change and air pollution: Gaps in understanding and future directions for research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matyssek, R.; Wieser, G.; Calfapietra, C.; Vries, W. de; Dizengremel, P.; Ernst, D.; Jolivet, Y.; Mikkelsen, T.N.; Mohren, G.M.J.; Le Thiec, D.; Tuovinen, J.-P.

    2012-01-01

    Forests in Europe face significant changes in climate, which in interaction with air quality changes, may significantly affect forest productivity, stand composition and carbon sequestration in both vegetation and soils. Identified knowledge gaps and research needs include: (i) interaction between changes in air quality (trace gas concentrations), climate and other site factors on forest ecosystem response, (ii) significance of biotic processes in system response, (iii) tools for mechanistic and diagnostic understanding and upscaling, and (iv) the need for unifying modelling and empirical research for synthesis. This position paper highlights the above focuses, including the global dimension of air pollution as part of climate change and the need for knowledge transfer to enable reliable risk assessment. A new type of research site in forest ecosystems (“supersites”) will be conducive to addressing these gaps by enabling integration of experimentation and modelling within the soil-plant-atmosphere interface, as well as further model development. - Highlights: ► Research needs are identified for forests under climate change and air pollution. ► Abiotic–biotic interactions in response impede tree-ecosystem upscaling. ► Integration of empirical and modelling research is advocated. ► The concept of multi-scale investigations at novel “Supersites” is propagated. ► “Supersites” warrant mechanistic understanding of soil-plant-atmosphere interface. - Forests under climate change and air pollution require empirical and modelling research needs to be integrated at novel “Supersites” through multi-scale investigations.

  1. Understanding the link between aridity and hydrological extremes: Lessons from hyper-arid climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molini, Annalisa

    2016-04-01

    Precipitation over arid and hyper-arid regions represents "per se" an extreme event, often resulting in surface-hydrologic impacts comparatively more catastrophic than in temperate climates. The spatio-temporal distribution of precipitation through arid climates is in fact characterized by intense and short-lived patterns and intimately related to the local availability of water and energy. However - given the scarcity of data and the limited number of research contributions analyzing rain extremes in hyper arid environments - is still an open question whether rainfall sporadically falling on hyper-arid regions, and in particular its convective component, presents peculiar features connected with the endemically water-limited regime of these regions. If so, understanding the link between aridity and rainfall variability could turn out a precious tool to investigate not only the climate of arid regions but also more global trends of precipitation under global warming and aridification. In this contribution we analyze the connection between rainfall variability, its temporal scaling laws and aridity in a climatological prospective. Through a wide dataset of precipitation time series covering most Continental US (CONUS) we explore the local dependence of classic intermittency measures on aridity, finding evidence of a well-defined variability patterns across a wide range of water-limited climates. We also explore the connection between different intermittency features of arid climates as contrasted with "wet" regions and briefly discuss the links between clustering, water-availability thresholds and hydro-climatic extremes. Our findings provide a framework to better understand the link between intermittency, rainfall scaling and climate in water-limited regions of the world, with possible extension to global aridification studies.

  2. Data-based perfect-deficit approach to understanding climate extremes and forest carbon assimilation capacity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Suhua; Yi, Chuixiang; Hendrey, George; Eaton, Timothy; Rustic, Gerald; Wang, Shaoqiang; Liu, Heping; Krakauer, Nir Y.; Wang, Weiguo; Desai, Ankur R.; Montagnani, Leonardo; Tha Paw U, Kyaw; Falk, Matthias; Black, Andrew; Bernhofer, Christian; Grünwald, Thomas; Laurila, Tuomas; Cescatti, Alessandro; Moors, Eddy; Bracho, Rosvel; Valentini, Riccardo

    2014-05-01

    Several lines of evidence suggest that the warming climate plays a vital role in driving certain types of extreme weather. The impact of warming and of extreme weather on forest carbon assimilation capacity is poorly known. Filling this knowledge gap is critical towards understanding the amount of carbon that forests can hold. Here, we used a perfect-deficit approach to identify forest canopy photosynthetic capacity (CPC) deficits and analyze how they correlate to climate extremes, based on observational data measured by the eddy covariance method at 27 forest sites over 146 site-years. We found that droughts severely affect the carbon assimilation capacities of evergreen broadleaf forest (EBF) and deciduous broadleaf forest. The carbon assimilation capacities of Mediterranean forests were highly sensitive to climate extremes, while marine forest climates tended to be insensitive to climate extremes. Our estimates suggest an average global reduction of forest CPC due to unfavorable climate extremes of 6.3 Pg C (˜5.2% of global gross primary production) per growing season over 2001-2010, with EBFs contributing 52% of the total reduction.

  3. Moving beyond a knowledge deficit perspective to understand climate action by youth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busch, K. C.

    2016-12-01

    This presentation reports on an experiment testing two framings of uncertainty on students' intent to take action to mitigate climate change. Additionally, to explore possible mechanisms involved in the choice of taking mitigating action, several factors highlighted within behavior theory literature were measured to create a theoretical model for youth's choice to take mitigating action. The factors explored were: knowledge, certainty, affect, efficacy, and social norms. The experiment was conducted with 453 middle and high school students within the Bay Area. Findings indicated that these students did hold a basic understanding of the causes and effects of climate change. They were worried and felt negatively about the topic. They felt somewhat efficacious about their personal ability to mitigate climate change. The students reported that they associated with people who were more likely to think climate change was real and caused by humans. Students also reported that they often take part in private pro-environmental behaviors such as using less electricity. When asked to respond freely to a question about what think about climate change, participants described the negative effects of human-caused climate change on Earth systems at the global scale and as a current phenomenon. The results of the experiment showed that while the text portraying climate change with high uncertainty did affect student's own certainty and their perception of scientists' certainty, it did not affect behavioral intention. This result can be explained through regression analysis. It was found that efficacy and social norms were direct determinants of pro-environmental behaviors. The cognitive variables - knowledge and certainty - and the psychological variable - affect - were not significant predictors of pro-environmental behavior. The implications for this study are that while students hold basic understanding of the causes and effects of climate change, this understanding lacks

  4. Understanding the interactions between Social Capital, climate change, and community resilience in Gulf of Mexico coastal counties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, C.; Blomberg, B.; Kolker, A.; Nguyen, U.; Page, C. M.; Sherchan, S. P.; Tobias, V. D.; Wu, H.

    2017-12-01

    Coastal communities in the Gulf of Mexico are facing new and complex challenges as their physical environment is altered by climate warming and sea level rise. To effectively prepare for environmental changes, coastal communities must build resilience in both physical structures and social structures. One measure of social structure resilience is how much social capital a community possesses. Social capital is defined as the connections among individuals which result in networks with shared norms, values and understandings that facilitate cooperation within or among groups. Social capital exists in three levels; bonding, bridging and linking. Bonding social capital is a measure of the strength of relationships amongst members of a network who are similar in some form. Bridging social capital is a measure of relationships amongst people who are dissimilar in some way, such as age, education, or race/ethnicity. Finally Linking social capital measures the extent to which individuals build relationships with institutions and individuals who have relative power over them (e.g local government, educational institutions). Using census and American Community Survey data, we calculated a Social Capital index value for bonding, bridging and linking for 60 Gulf of Mexico coastal counties for the years 2000, and 2010 to 2015. To investigate the impact of social capital on community resilience we coupled social capital index values with physical datasets of land-use/land cover, sea level change, climate, elevation and surface water quality for each coastal county in each year. Preliminary results indicate that in Gulf of Mexico coastal counties, increased bonding social capital results in decreased population change. In addition, we observed a multi-year time lag in the effect of increased bridging social capital on population stability, potentially suggesting key linkages between the physical and social environment in this complex coupled-natural human system. This

  5. Utilizing Satellite Precipitation Products to Understand the Link Between Climate Variability and Malaria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maggioni, V.; Mousam, A.; Delamater, P. L.; Cash, B. A.; Quispe, A.

    2015-12-01

    Malaria is a public health threat to people globally leading to 198 million cases and 584,000 deaths annually. Outbreaks of vector borne diseases such as malaria can be significantly impacted by climate variables such as precipitation. For example, an increase in rainfall has the potential to create pools of water that can serve as breeding locations for mosquitos. Peru is a country that is currently controlling malaria, but has not been able to completely eliminate the disease. Despite the various initiatives in order to control malaria - including regional efforts to improve surveillance, early detection, prompt treatment, and vector management - malaria cases in Peru have risen between 2011 and 2014. The purpose of this study is to test the hypothesis that climate variability plays a fundamental role in malaria occurrence over a 12-year period (2003-2014) in Peru. When analyzing climate variability, it is important to obtain high-quality, high-resolution data for a time series long enough to draw conclusion about how climate variables have been and are changing. Remote sensing is a powerful tool for measuring and monitoring climate variables continuously in time and space. A widely used satellite-based precipitation product, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), available globally since 1998, was used to obtain 3-hourly data with a spatial resolution of 0.25° x 0.25°. The precipitation data was linked to weekly (2003-2014) malaria cases collected by health centers and available at a district level all over Peru to investigate the relationship between precipitation and the seasonal and annual variations in malaria incidence. Further studies will incorporate additional climate variables such as temperature, humidity, soil moisture, and surface pressure from remote sensing data products and climate models. Ultimately, this research will help us to understand if climate variability impacts malaria incidence

  6. Promoting Climate Literacy and Conceptual Understanding among In-service Secondary Science Teachers requires an Epistemological Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattacharya, D.; Forbes, C.; Roehrig, G.; Chandler, M. A.

    2017-12-01

    Promoting climate literacy among in-service science teachers necessitates an understanding of fundamental concepts about the Earth's climate System (USGCRP, 2009). Very few teachers report having any formal instruction in climate science (Plutzer et al., 2016), therefore, rather simple conceptions of climate systems and their variability exist, which has implications for students' science learning (Francies et al., 1993; Libarkin, 2005; Rebich, 2005). This study uses the inferences from a NASA Innovations in Climate Education (NICE) teacher professional development program (CYCLES) to establish the necessity for developing an epistemological perspective among teachers. In CYCLES, 19 middle and high school (male=8, female=11) teachers were assessed for their understanding of global climate change (GCC). A qualitative analysis of their concept maps and an alignment of their conceptions with the Essential Principles of Climate Literacy (NOAA, 2009) demonstrated that participants emphasized on EPCL 1, 3, 6, 7 focusing on the Earth system, atmospheric, social and ecological impacts of GCC. However, EPCL 4 (variability in climate) and 5 (data-based observations and modeling) were least represented and emphasized upon. Thus, participants' descriptions about global climatic patterns were often factual rather than incorporating causation (why the temperatures are increasing) and/or correlation (describing what other factors might influence global temperatures). Therefore, engaging with epistemic dimensions of climate science to understand the processes, tools, and norms through which climate scientists study the Earth's climate system (Huxter et al., 2013) is critical for developing an in-depth conceptual understanding of climate. CLiMES (Climate Modeling and Epistemology of Science), a NSF initiative proposes to use EzGCM (EzGlobal Climate Model) to engage students and teachers in designing and running simulations, performing data processing activities, and analyzing

  7. Crossing the river: Developing a strategy to support understanding of uncertainty within probabilistic climate projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walton, P.; Lamb, R.

    2010-09-01

    The UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) was established by government in 1997 to support the UK's engagement with becoming better adapted to a changing climate. As the lead organisation in the UK on climate change adaptation, UKCIP oversaw the development of the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) which were launched in June 2009 providing, for the first time, probabilistic climate projections for the UK. As with previous generations of UKCIP climate scenarios, they were freely accessible and intended for a whole spectrum of users, from technical experts to a lay audience. . Prior to the launch of UKCP09 it was acknowledged that users would need support in understanding key concepts, such as the uncertainty inherent in the projections, to be able to use them appropriately. The user support strategy was therefore developed. It is founded on robust pedagogical principles and draws on the latest thinking on public understanding of science (PUS) that places the user at the centre of the communication process. The adopted approach first identifies profiles of the key users of the climate projections and the ways in which they would use and access the data. Based on these profiles it is possible to identify a range of mechanisms that allow the user to engage with understanding the projections in different ways and situations including lectures, workshops and online learning. Within this blended strategy an exercise was developed specifically to support users' understanding of the concept of uncertainty within the probabilistic climate projections. The ‘Crossing the River' exercise encourages the participants to actively consider the nature of information they are using, and how it could be applied in a specific decision. Reflection and discussion are key elements in supporting the users' understanding of the concept and allowing them to apply the principles in the exercise to their own context. Their reflection is facilitated through a range of mechanisms that provide

  8. Forests under climate change and air pollution: Gaps in understanding and future directions for research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Matyssek, R.; Wieser, G.; Calfapietra, C.

    2012-01-01

    changes in air quality (trace gas concentrations), climate and other site factors on forest ecosystem response, (ii) significance of biotic processes in system response, (iii) tools for mechanistic and diagnostic understanding and upscaling, and (iv) the need for unifying modelling and empirical research......Forests in Europe face significant changes in climate, which in interaction with air quality changes, may significantly affect forest productivity, stand composition and carbon sequestration in both vegetation and soils. Identified knowledge gaps and research needs include: (i) interaction between...... for synthesis. This position paper highlights the above focuses, including the global dimension of air pollution as part of climate change and the need for knowledge transfer to enable reliable risk assessment. A new type of research site in forest ecosystems (“supersites”) will be conducive to addressing...

  9. Revisiting of Stommel's model for the understanding of the abrupt climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scatamacchia, R.; Purini, R.; Rafanelli, C.

    2010-01-01

    Despite the enormous number of papers devoted to modelling climate changes, the pionieristic Stommel paper (1961) remains a still valid tool for the understanding of the basic mechanism that governs the abrupt climate change, i.e. the existence of multipla equilibria in the governing non-linear equations. Using non-dimensional quantities, Stommel did not provide any explicit information about the temporal scale affecting the process under examination when the control parameters are varied. On the basis of this consideration, the present paper revisits the Stommel theory putting some emphasis on the quantitative estimate of how the variations of the control system parameters system modify the fundamental motor of the climate change, i.e. the thermohaline circulation.

  10. Recent advances in understanding secondary organic aerosol: Implications for global climate forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shrivastava, Manish; Cappa, Christopher D.; Fan, Jiwen; Goldstein, Allen H.; Guenther, Alex B.; Jimenez, Jose L.; Kuang, Chongai; Laskin, Alexander; Martin, Scot T.; Ng, Nga Lee; Petaja, Tuukka; Pierce, Jeffrey R.; Rasch, Philip J.; Roldin, Pontus; Seinfeld, John H.; Shilling, John; Smith, James N.; Thornton, Joel A.; Volkamer, Rainer; Wang, Jian; Worsnop, Douglas R.; Zaveri, Rahul A.; Zelenyuk, Alla; Zhang, Qi

    2017-06-01

    Anthropogenic emissions and land use changes have modified atmospheric aerosol concentrations and size distributions over time. Understanding preindustrial conditions and changes in organic aerosol due to anthropogenic activities is important because these features (1) influence estimates of aerosol radiative forcing and (2) can confound estimates of the historical response of climate to increases in greenhouse gases. Secondary organic aerosol (SOA), formed in the atmosphere by oxidation of organic gases, represents a major fraction of global submicron-sized atmospheric organic aerosol. Over the past decade, significant advances in understanding SOA properties and formation mechanisms have occurred through measurements, yet current climate models typically do not comprehensively include all important processes. This review summarizes some of the important developments during the past decade in understanding SOA formation. We highlight the importance of some processes that influence the growth of SOA particles to sizes relevant for clouds and radiative forcing, including formation of extremely low volatility organics in the gas phase, acid-catalyzed multiphase chemistry of isoprene epoxydiols, particle-phase oligomerization, and physical properties such as volatility and viscosity. Several SOA processes highlighted in this review are complex and interdependent and have nonlinear effects on the properties, formation, and evolution of SOA. Current global models neglect this complexity and nonlinearity and thus are less likely to accurately predict the climate forcing of SOA and project future climate sensitivity to greenhouse gases. Efforts are also needed to rank the most influential processes and nonlinear process-related interactions, so that these processes can be accurately represented in atmospheric chemistry-climate models.

  11. Computing and Systems Applied in Support of Coordinated Energy, Environmental, and Climate Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    This talk focuses on how Dr. Loughlin is applying Computing and Systems models, tools and methods to more fully understand the linkages among energy systems, environmental quality, and climate change. Dr. Loughlin will highlight recent and ongoing research activities, including: ...

  12. Experts’ understandings of drinking water risk management in a climate change scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Åsa Boholm

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The challenges for society presented by climate change are complex and demanding. This paper focuses on one particular resource of utmost necessity and vulnerability to climate change: namely, the provisioning of safe drinking water. From a critical perspective on the role of expertise in risk debates, this paper looks at how Swedish experts understand risk to drinking water in a climate change scenario and how they reason about challenges to risk management and adaptation strategies. The empirical material derives from ten in-depth semi-structured interviews with experts, employed both at government agencies and at universities, and with disciplinary backgrounds in a variety of fields (water engineering, planning, geology and environmental chemistry. The experts understand risk factors affecting both drinking water quality and availability as complex and systemically interrelated. A lack of political saliency of drinking water as a public service is identified as an obstacle to the development of robust adaptation strategies. Another area of concern relates to the geographical, organizational and institutional boundaries (regulatory, political and epistemological between the plethora of public actors with partly overlapping and sometimes unclear responsibilities for the provisioning of safe drinking water. The study concludes that climate change adaptation regarding drinking water provisioning will require a new integration of the knowledge of systemic risk relations, in combination with more efficient agency collaboration based on a clear demarcation of responsibility between actors.

  13. Understanding and Projecting Climate and Human Impacts on Terrestrial-Coastal Carbon and Nutrient Fluxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lohrenz, S. E.; Cai, W. J.; Tian, H.; He, R.; Fennel, K.

    2017-12-01

    Changing climate and land use practices have the potential to dramatically alter coupled hydrologic-biogeochemical processes and associated movement of water, carbon and nutrients through various terrestrial reservoirs into rivers, estuaries, and coastal ocean waters. Consequences of climate- and land use-related changes will be particularly evident in large river basins and their associated coastal outflow regions. Here, we describe a NASA Carbon Monitoring System project that employs an integrated suite of models in conjunction with remotely sensed as well as targeted in situ observations with the objectives of describing processes controlling fluxes on land and their coupling to riverine, estuarine and ocean ecosystems. The nature of our approach, coupling models of terrestrial and ocean ecosystem dynamics and associated carbon processes, allows for assessment of how societal and human-related land use, land use change and forestry and climate-related change affect terrestrial carbon transport as well as export of materials through watersheds to the coastal margins. Our objectives include the following: 1) Provide representation of carbon processes in the terrestrial ecosystem to understand how changes in land use and climatic conditions influence the export of materials to the coastal ocean, 2) Couple the terrestrial exports of carbon, nutrients and freshwater to a coastal biogeochemical model and examine how different climate and land use scenarios influence fluxes across the land-ocean interface, and 3) Project future changes under different scenarios of climate and human impact, and support user needs related to carbon management and other activities (e.g., water quality, hypoxia, ocean acidification). This research is providing information that will contribute to determining an overall carbon balance in North America as well as describing and predicting how human- and climate-related changes impact coastal water quality including possible effects of coastal

  14. Understanding the Changes in Global Crop Yields Through Changes in Climate and Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Najafi, Ehsan; Devineni, Naresh; Khanbilvardi, Reza M.; Kogan, Felix

    2018-03-01

    During the last few decades, the global agricultural production has risen and technology enhancement is still contributing to yield growth. However, population growth, water crisis, deforestation, and climate change threaten the global food security. An understanding of the variables that caused past changes in crop yields can help improve future crop prediction models. In this article, we present a comprehensive global analysis of the changes in the crop yields and how they relate to different large-scale and regional climate variables, climate change variables and technology in a unified framework. A new multilevel model for yield prediction at the country level is developed and demonstrated. The structural relationships between average yield and climate attributes as well as trends are estimated simultaneously. All countries are modeled in a single multilevel model with partial pooling to automatically group and reduce estimation uncertainties. El Niño-southern oscillation (ENSO), Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), geopotential height anomalies (GPH), historical carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and country-based time series of GDP per capita as an approximation of technology measurement are used as predictors to estimate annual agricultural crop yields for each country from 1961 to 2013. Results indicate that these variables can explain the variability in historical crop yields for most of the countries and the model performs well under out-of-sample verifications. While some countries were not generally affected by climatic factors, PDSI and GPH acted both positively and negatively in different regions for crop yields in many countries.

  15. Using Weather Types to Understand and Communicate Weather and Climate Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prein, A. F.; Hale, B.; Holland, G. J.; Bruyere, C. L.; Done, J.; Mearns, L.

    2017-12-01

    A common challenge in atmospheric research is the translation of scientific advancements and breakthroughs to decision relevant and actionable information. This challenge is central to the mission of NCAR's Capacity Center for Climate and Weather Extremes (C3WE, www.c3we.ucar.edu). C3WE advances our understanding of weather and climate impacts and integrates these advances with distributed information technology to create tools that promote a global culture of resilience to weather and climate extremes. Here we will present an interactive web-based tool that connects historic U.S. losses and fatalities from extreme weather and climate events to 12 large-scale weather types. Weather types are dominant weather situations such as winter high-pressure systems over the U.S. leading to very cold temperatures or summertime moist humid air masses over the central U.S. leading to severe thunderstorms. Each weather type has a specific fingerprint of economic losses and fatalities in a region that is quantified. Therefore, weather types enable a direct connection of observed or forecasted weather situation to loss of life and property. The presented tool allows the user to explore these connections, raise awareness of existing vulnerabilities, and build resilience to weather and climate extremes.

  16. Population, Environment, and Climate in the Albertine Rift: Understanding Local Impacts of Regional Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartter, J.; Ryan, S. J.; Diem, J.; Palace, M. W.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change is of critical concern for conservation and to develop appropriate policies and responses, it is important not only to anticipate the nature of changes, but also how they are perceived, interpreted and adapted to by local people. The Albertine Rift in East Africa is one of the most threatened biodiversity hotspots due to dense settlement, extreme poverty, and land conversion. We synthesize ongoing NSF-CNH research, where Ugandan park landscapes are examined to understand the impacts of climate change on livelihoods. Kibale National Park, the main study site, exemplifies the challenges facing many parks because of its isolation within a densely populated agricultural landscape. Three separate household surveys (n=251, 130, 100) reveal that the most perceived benefits provided by Kibale were ecosystem services and farmers cite rainfall as one of the park's most important benefits, but are also concerned with variable precipitation. Analysis of 30+ years of daily rainfall station data shows total rainfall has not changed significantly, but timing and transitions of seasons and intra-seasonal distribution are highly variable, which may contribute to changes in farming schedules and threaten food security. Further, the contrast between land use/cover change over 25 years around the park and the stability of forest within the park underscores the need to understand this landscape for future sustainability planning and the inevitable population growth outside its boundaries. Understanding climate change impacts and feedbacks to and from socio-ecological systems are important to address the dual challenge of biodiversity conservation and poverty alleviation.

  17. Climate change and livestock system in mountain: Understanding from Gandaki River basin of Nepal Himalaya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahal, P.; Shrestha, N. S.; Krakauer, N.; Lakhankar, T.; Panthi, J., Sr.; Pradhanang, S.; Jha, A. K.; Shrestha, M.; Sharma, M.

    2015-12-01

    In recent years climate change has emerged as a source of vulnerability for agro-livestock smallholders in Nepal where people are mostly dependent on rain-fed agriculture and livestock farming for their livelihoods. There is a need to understand and predict the potential impacts of climate change on agro-livestock farmer to develop effective mitigation and adaptation strategies. To understand dynamics of this vulnerability, we assess the farmers' perceptions of climate change, analysis of historical and future projections of climatic parameters and try to understand impact of climate change on livestock system in Gandaki River Basin of Central Nepal. During the period of 1981-2012, as reported by the mountain communities, the most serious hazards for livestock system and agriculture are the increasing trend of temperature, erratic rainfall patterns and increase in drought. Poor households without irrigated land are facing greater risks and stresses than well-off people. Analysis of historical climate data also supports the farmer perception. Result shows that there is increasing trend of temperature but no consistent trend in precipitation but a notable finding is that wet areas are getting wetter and dry areas getting drier. Besides that, there is increase in percentage of warm days and nights with decrease in the cool nights and days. The magnitude of the trend is found to be higher in high altitude. Trend of wet days has found to be increasing with decreasing in rainy days. Most areas are characterized by increases in both severity and frequency of drought and are more evident in recent years. The summers of 2004/05/06/09 and winters of 2006/08/09 were the worst widespread droughts and have a serious impact on livestock since 1981. Future projected change in temperature and precipitation obtained from downscaling the data global model by regional climate model shows that precipitation in central Nepal will change by -8% to 12% and temperature will change by 1

  18. Aerial Photography and Imagery, Ortho-Corrected, To improve the understanding of coastal uplands and wetlands, and their linkages with the distribution, abundance, and health of living marine resources., Published in 2006, 1:24000 (1in=2000ft) scale, Louisiana State University (LSU).

    Data.gov (United States)

    NSGIC Education | GIS Inventory — Aerial Photography and Imagery, Ortho-Corrected dataset current as of 2006. To improve the understanding of coastal uplands and wetlands, and their linkages with the...

  19. Integrating Dendrochronology, Climate and Satellite Remote Sensing to Better Understand Savanna Landscape Dynamics in the Okavango Delta, Botswana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jane Southworth

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available This research examines the integration and potential uses of linkages between climate dynamics, savanna vegetation and landscape level processes within a highly vulnerable region, both in terms of climate variability and social systems. We explore the combined applications of two time-series methodologies: (1 climate signals detected in tree ring growth, from published literature, chronologies from the International Tree-Ring Data Bank, and minimal preliminary field data; and (2 new primary production (NPP data of vegetation cover over time derived from remotely sensed analyses. Both time-series are related to the regional patterns of precipitation, the principle driver of plant growth in the area. The approach is temporally and spatially multiscalar and examines the relationships between vegetation cover, type and amount, and precipitation shifts. We review literature linking dendrochronology, climate, and remotely sensed imagery, and, in addition, provide unique preliminary analyses from a dry study site located on the outer limit of the Okavango Delta. The work demonstrates integration across the different data sources, to provide a more holistic view of landscape level processes occurring in the last 30-50 years. These results corroborate the water-limited nature of the region and the dominance of precipitation in controlling vegetation growth. We present this integrative analysis of vegetation and climate change, as a prospective approach to facilitate the development of long-term climate/vegetation change records across multiple scales.

  20. A Kaleidoscope of Understanding: Pre-service Elementary Teachers' Knowledge of Climate Change Concepts and Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayhoe, D.; Bullock, S.; Hayhoe, K.

    2010-12-01

    Teachers are at the forefront of efforts to increase climate literacy; however, even teachers’ understanding can contain significant misconceptions. Probes aimed at capturing these misconceptions have been used with pre-service teachers in several countries. Here, we report on a unique 59-item questionnaire useful as a pre-post diagnostic for teacher training. Topics include Earth’s climate system, long-range climatic changes, recent changes, various gases and types of radiation involved in the greenhouse effect, future impacts of climate change, and mitigation options This questionnaire is unique in three ways: 1. the topics include climate change concepts not usually probed, 2. the questions have a binary-choice format that avoided both the “positive statement bias” of agree-disagree questions and the superfluous distractors of multiple-choice tests, and 3. the questionnaire was piloted with pre-service elementary teachers in Toronto, one of the most multicultural cities in the world. The questionnaire items were written for the Ontario curriculum (K-10); however, they also address almost all of the principles identified in Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Science. The questionnaire was completed by 89 volunteers from a pool of 280. Most had a substantial knowledge of climate change concepts, with 34 of the 59 questions being answered correctly by more than 60% of the subjects. The item discrimination of most questions was relatively low, however, and only a very few item pairs showed a significant correlation. This suggests that subjects’ knowledge consisted of a “kaleidoscope of understanding,” rather than a coherent picture. Significant misconceptions were also identified, with 18 of the 59 items being answered incorrectly by more than 60% of the subjects. Of these, 11 correspond to misconceptions previously noted, while 7 suggest new misconceptions not yet identified in studies done with students or teachers, such as the

  1. Recent advances in understanding climate, glacier and river dynamics in high mountain Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Immerzeel, W.

    2016-12-01

    The water cycle in the Himalaya is poorly understood because of its extreme topography that results in complex interactions between climate, water stored in snow and glaciers and the hydrological processes. Hydrological extremes in the greater Himalayas regularly cause great damage, while high mountain Asia also supplies water to over 25% of the global population. So, the stakes are high and an accurate understanding of the Himalayan water cycle is imperative. The hydrology of the greater Himalayas is only marginally resolved due to the intricacy of monsoon dynamics, the poorly quantified dependence on the cryosphere and the physical constraints of doing research in high-altitude and generally inaccessible terrain. However, in recent years significant scientific advances have been made in field monitoring, modelling and remote sensing and the latest progress and outstanding challenges will be presented for three related fields. First focus will be on recent learnings about high altitude climate dynamics and the interaction between the atmosphere and the extreme mountain topography. Secondly, recent advances in how climate controls key glacio-hydrological processes in high-altitude catchments will be discussed with a particular focus on debris covered glaciers. Thirdly, new developments in glacio-hydrological modelling and approaches to climate change impact assessments will be reviewed. Finally, the outstanding scientific challenges will be synthesized that need to be addressed to fully close the high mountain water cycle and to be able to reduce the uncertainty in future projections of water availability and the occurrence of extreme events in high mountain Asia.

  2. Understanding Student Cognition about Complex Earth System Processes Related to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNeal, K. S.; Libarkin, J.; Ledley, T. S.; Dutta, S.; Templeton, M. C.; Geroux, J.; Blakeney, G. A.

    2011-12-01

    The Earth's climate system includes complex behavior and interconnections with other Earth spheres that present challenges to student learning. To better understand these unique challenges, we have conducted experiments with high-school and introductory level college students to determine how information pertaining to the connections between the Earth's atmospheric system and the other Earth spheres (e.g., hydrosphere and cryosphere) are processed. Specifically, we include psychomotor tests (e.g., eye-tracking) and open-ended questionnaires in this research study, where participants were provided scientific images of the Earth (e.g., global precipitation and ocean and atmospheric currents), eye-tracked, and asked to provide causal or relational explanations about the viewed images. In addition, the students engaged in on-line modules (http://serc.carleton.edu/eslabs/climate/index.html) focused on Earth system science as training activities to address potential cognitive barriers. The developed modules included interactive media, hands-on lessons, links to outside resources, and formative assessment questions to promote a supportive and data-rich learning environment. Student eye movements were tracked during engagement with the materials to determine the role of perception and attention on understanding. Students also completed a conceptual questionnaire pre-post to determine if these on-line curriculum materials assisted in their development of connections between Earth's atmospheric system and the other Earth systems. The pre-post results of students' thinking about climate change concepts, as well as eye-tracking results, will be presented.

  3. Understanding of Grassland Ecosystems under Climate Change and Economic Development Pressures in the Mongolia Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, J.; Chen, J.; Shan, P.; Pan, X.; Wei, Y.; Wang, M.; Xin, X.

    2011-12-01

    The land use and land cover change, especially in the form of grassland degradation, in the Mongolian Plateau, exhibited a unique spatio-temporal pattern that is a characteristic of a mixed stress from economic development and climate change of the region. The social dimension of the region played a key role in shaping the landscape and land use change, including the cultural clashes with economic development, conflicts between indigenous people and business ventures, and exogenous international influences. Various research projects have been conducted in the region to focus on physical degradation of grasslands and/or on economic development but there is a lack of understanding how the social and economic dimensions interact with grassland ecosystems and changes. In this talk, a synthesis report was made based on the most recent workshop held in Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, of China, that specifically focused on climate change and grassland ecosystems. The report analyzed the degree of grassland degradation, its climate and social drivers, and coupling nature of economic development and conservation of traditional grassland values. The goal is to fully understand the socio-ecological-economic interactions that together shape the trajectory of the grassland ecosystems in the Mongolia Plateau.

  4. The Changing Cold Regions Network: Improving the Understanding and Prediction of Changing Land, Water, and Climate in the Mackenzie and Saskatchewan River Basins, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeBeer, C. M.; Wheater, H. S.; Chun, K. P.; Shook, K.; Whitfield, P. H.

    2014-12-01

    Within the cold interior of western and northern Canada, rapid and widespread environmental changes are taking place, which are of serious concern for society and have a range of implications from local to regional and global scales. From a scientific standpoint there is an urgent need to understand the changes and develop improved diagnostic and predictive modelling tools to deal with the uncertainty faced in the future. The Changing Cold Regions Network (CCRN) is a research consortium of over 50 Canadian university and government scientists and international researchers aimed at addressing these issues within the geographic domain of the Mackenzie and Saskatchewan River Basins. CCRN's primary focus is to integrate existing and new experimental data with modelling and remote sensing products to understand, diagnose and predict changing land, water and climate, and their interactions and feedbacks. To support these activities, the network utilizes a suite of 14 world-class water, ecosystem, cryosphere and climate (WECC) observatories across this region that provide exceptional opportunities to observe change, investigate processes and their dynamics, and develop and test environmental models. This talk will briefly describe the CCRN thematic components and WECC observatories, and will then describe some of the observed environmental changes and their linkages across the northern and mountainous parts of the network study domain. In particular, this will include changes in permafrost, terrestrial vegetation, snowcover, glaciers, and river discharge in relation to observed climatic changes across the region. The observations draw on a wide range of literature sources and statistical analyses of federal and provincial regional monitoring network data, while more detailed observations at some of the WECC observatories help to show how these regional changes are manifested at local scales and vice versa. A coordinated special observation and analysis period across all

  5. VT Wildlife Linkage Habitat

    Data.gov (United States)

    Vermont Center for Geographic Information — (Link to Metadata) The Wildlife Linkage Habitat Analysis uses landscape scale data to identify or predict the location of potentially significant wildlife linkage...

  6. Metagenomics-Enabled Understanding of Soil Microbial Feedbacks to Climate Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, J.; Wu, L.; Zhili, H.; Kostas, K.; Luo, Y.; Schuur, E. A. G.; Cole, J. R.; Tiedje, J. M.

    2014-12-01

    Understanding the response of biological communities to climate warming is a central issue in ecology and global change biology, but it is poorly understood microbial communities. To advance system-level predictive understanding of the feedbacks of belowground microbial communities to multiple climate change factors and their impacts on soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycling processes, we have used integrated metagenomic technologies (e.g., target gene and shotgun metagenome sequencing, GeoChip, and isotope) to analyze soil microbial communities from experimental warming sites in Alaska (AK) and Oklahoma (OK), and long-term laboratory incubation. Rapid feedbacks of microbial communities to warming were observed in the AK site. Consistent with the changes in soil temperature, moisture and ecosystem respiration, microbial functional community structure was shifted after only 1.5-year warming, indicating rapid responses and high sensitivity of this permafrost ecosystem to climate warming. Also, warming stimulated not only functional genes involved in aerobic respiration of both labile and recalcitrant C, contributing to an observed 24% increase in 2010 growing season and 56% increase of decomposition of a standard substrate, but also functional genes for anaerobic processes (e.g., denitrification, sulfate reduction, methanogenesis). Further comparisons by shotgun sequencing showed significant differences of microbial community structure between AK and OK sites. The OK site was enriched in genes annotated for cellulose degradation, CO2 production, denitrification, sporulation, heat shock response, and cellular surface structures (e.g., trans-membrane transporters for glucosides), while the AK warmed plots were enriched in metabolic pathways related to labile C decomposition. Together, our results demonstrate the vulnerability of permafrost ecosystem C to climate warming and the importance of microbial feedbacks in mediating such vulnerability.

  7. Understanding Indian Institutional Networks and Participation in Water Management Adaptation to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azhoni, A.; Holman, I.; Jude, S.

    2014-12-01

    Adaptation to climate change for water management involves complex interactions between different actors and sectors. The need to understand the relationships between key stakeholder institutions (KSIs) is increasingly recognized. The complexity of water management in India has meant that enhancing adaptive capacity through improved inter-institutional networks remains a challenge for both government and non-governmental institutions. To analyse such complex inter-actions this study has used Social Network and Stakeholder Analysis tools to quantify the participation of, and interactions between, each KSI in the climate change adaptation and water discourse based on keyword analysis of their online presence. Using NodeXL, a Social Network Analysis tool, network diagrams have been used to evaluate the inter-relationships between these KSIs. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with twenty-five KSIs to identify the main barriers to adaptation and to triangulate the findings of the e-documents analysis. The analysis found that there is an inverse relationship between institutions' reference to water and climate change in their web-documents. Most institutions emphasize mitigation rather than adaptation. Bureaucratic delays, poor coordination between the KSIs, unclear policies and systemic deficiencies are identified as key barriers to improving adaptive capacity within water management to climate change. However, the increasing attention being given to the perceived climate change impacts on the water sector and improving the inter-institutional networks are some of the opportunities for Indian water institutions. Although websites of Union Government Institutions seldom directly hyperlink to one another, they are linked through "bridging" websites which have the potential to act as brokers for enhancing adaptive capacity. The research has wider implications for analysis of complex inter-disciplinary and inter-institutional issues involving multi stakeholders.

  8. Understanding Climate Variability of Urban Ecosystems Through the Lens of Citizen Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ripplinger, J.; Jenerette, D.; Wang, J.; Chandler, M.; Ge, C.; Koutzoukis, S.

    2017-12-01

    The Los Angeles megacity is vulnerable to climate warming - a process that locally exacerbates the urban heat island effect as it intensifies with size and density of the built-up area. We know that large-scale drivers play a role, but in order to understand local-scale climate variation, more research is needed on the biophysical and sociocultural processes driving the urban climate system. In this study, we work with citizen scientists to deploy a high-density network of microsensors across a climate gradient to characterize geographic variation in neighborhood meso- and micro-climates. This research asks: How do urbanization, global climate, and vegetation interact across multiple scales to affect local-scale experiences of temperature? Additionally, citizen scientist-led efforts generated research questions focused on examining microclimatic differences among yard groundcover types (rock mulch vs. lawn vs. artificial turf) and also on variation in temperature related to tree cover. Combining sensor measurements with Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) spatial models and satellite-based temperature, we estimate spatially-explicit maps of land surface temperature and air temperature to illustrate the substantial difference between surface and air urban heat island intensities and the variable degree of coupling between land surface and air temperature in urban areas. Our results show a strong coupling between air temperature variation and landcover for neighborhoods, with significant detectable signatures from tree cover and impervious surface. Temperature covaried most strongly with urbanization intensity at nighttime during peak summer season, when daily mean air temperature ranged from 12.8C to 30.4C across all groundcover types. The combined effects of neighborhood geography and vegetation determine where and how temperature and tree canopy vary within a city. This citizen science-enabled research shows how large-scale climate drivers and urbanization

  9. Argumentation as a Strategy for Increasing Preservice Teachers’ Understanding of Climate Change, a Key Global Socioscientific Issue

    OpenAIRE

    Lambert, Julie L.; Bleicher, Robert E.

    2017-01-01

    Findings of this study suggest that scientific argumentation can play an effective role in addressing complex socioscientific issues (i.e. global climate change). This research examined changes in preservice teachers’ knowledge and perceptions about climate change in an innovative undergraduate-level elementary science methods course. The preservice teachers’ understanding of fundamental concepts (e.g., the difference between weather and climate, causes of recent global warming, etc.) increas...

  10. Analysis of farm performance in Europe under different climate and management conditions to improve understanding of adaptive capacity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reidsma, P.; Ewert, F.; Oude Lansink, A.

    2007-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to improve understanding of the adaptive capacity of European agriculture to climate change. Extensive data on farm characteristics of individual farms from the Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) have been combined with climatic and socio-economic data to analyze the

  11. Primary School Student Teachers' Understanding of Climate Change: Comparing the Results Given by Concept Maps and Communication Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ratinen, Ilkka; Viiri, Jouni; Lehesvuori, Sami

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is a complex environmental problem that can be used to examine students' understanding, gained through classroom communication, of climate change and its interactions. The present study examines a series of four science sessions given to a group of primary school student teachers (n?=?20). This includes analysis of the…

  12. The Effectiveness of the Geospatial Curriculum Approach on Urban Middle-Level Students' Climate Change Understandings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodzin, Alec M.; Fu, Qiong

    2014-01-01

    Climate change science is a challenging topic for student learning. This quantitative study examined the effectiveness of a geospatial curriculum approach to promote climate change science understandings in an urban school district with eighth-grade students and investigated whether teacher- and student-level factors accounted for students'…

  13. Challenges in administrative data linkage for research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katie Harron

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Linkage of population-based administrative data is a valuable tool for combining detailed individual-level information from different sources for research. While not a substitute for classical studies based on primary data collection, analyses of linked administrative data can answer questions that require large sample sizes or detailed data on hard-to-reach populations, and generate evidence with a high level of external validity and applicability for policy making. There are unique challenges in the appropriate research use of linked administrative data, for example with respect to bias from linkage errors where records cannot be linked or are linked together incorrectly. For confidentiality and other reasons, the separation of data linkage processes and analysis of linked data is generally regarded as best practice. However, the ‘black box’ of data linkage can make it difficult for researchers to judge the reliability of the resulting linked data for their required purposes. This article aims to provide an overview of challenges in linking administrative data for research. We aim to increase understanding of the implications of (i the data linkage environment and privacy preservation; (ii the linkage process itself (including data preparation, and deterministic and probabilistic linkage methods and (iii linkage quality and potential bias in linked data. We draw on examples from a number of countries to illustrate a range of approaches for data linkage in different contexts.

  14. How QEMCAN technology can contribute to an understanding of the possible climate impacts of atmospheric dust

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pudmenzky, Christa; Butcher, Alan; Love, Benjamin; McTainsh, Grant

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Each year, three billion tons of anthropogenic and natural aerosols are released from the Earth's surface to the atmosphere. Natural aerosols contribute 89 per cent. Mineral dust aerosol plays a mediating role in physical and biogeochemical exchanges among the atmosphere, land, and ocean and is an active component of the global climate system. On 23 October 2002, a dust storm carried 4.85 Mt of dust along a 2,400 km front across eastern Australia and hit Brisbane. Also, in February 2000, red dust deposits were measured on the Franz Josef Glacier in New Zealand, and were found to have travelled over 2,500 km from the Mallee area of south-east Australia. Mineral dust has the potential to influence the attenuation of sunlight by scattering and/or absorbing incoming solar radiation, which can result in negative (cooling) or positive (heating) radiative forcing. The direction and degree of radiative forcing by dust depend upon: particle-size, aggregation, shape and mineralogy. Smaller particles are more effective in scattering energy than larger particles, and the effectiveness of scattering also depends on particle shape and density, which are related to dust mineralogy. Dust consists of mixtures of minerals, each with characteristic optical properties, occurring as either individual mineral grains, or as pure or mixed-mineral aggregates, but data on dust mineralogy are rare. This study investigates these properties of Australian dust and their possible implications for radiative forcing of climate. QEMSCAN TM, an automated scanning electron microscope analytical system, is used to measure the mineralogy, particle-size, particle shape and aggregation. The information gained from this technology can be used in Global Climate Models to provide a more detailed understanding of the impacts of atmospheric dust on global climate

  15. Decadal-interdecadal climate variability over Antarctica and linkages to the Tropics : analysis of ice core, instrumental, and tropical proxy data

    OpenAIRE

    Okumura, Yuko; Schneider, David; Deser, Clara; Wilson, Rob

    2012-01-01

    The Antarctic continent contains the majority of the global ice volume and plays an important role in a changing climate. The nature and causes of Antarctic climate variability are, however, poorly understood beyond interannual time scales due to the paucity of long, reliable meteorological observations. This study analyzes decadal-interdecadal climate variability over Antarctica using a network of annually resolved ice core records and various instrumental and tropical proxy data for the 19t...

  16. Crossing Scales and Disciplines to Understand Challenges for Climate Change Adaptation and Water Resources Management in Chile and Californi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vicuna, S.; Melo, O.; Meza, F. J.; Medellin-Azuara, J.; Herman, J. D.; Sandoval Solis, S.

    2017-12-01

    California and Chile share similarities in terms of climate, ecosystems, topography and water use. In both regions, the hydro-climatologic system is characterized by a typical Mediterranean climate, rainy winters and dry summers, highly variable annual precipitation, and snowmelt-dependent water supply systems. Water use in both regions has also key similarities, with the highest share devoted to high-value irrigated crops, followed by urban water use and a significant hydropower-driven power supply system. Snowmelt-driven basins in semiarid regions are highly sensitive to climate change for two reasons, temperature effects on snowmelt timing and water resources scarcity in these regions subject to ever-increasing demands. Research in both regions also coincide in terms of the potential climate change impacts. Expected impacts on California and Chile water resources have been well-documented in terms of changes in water supply and water demand, though significant uncertainties remain. Both regions have recently experienced prolonged droughts, providing an opportunity to understand the future challenges and potential adaptive responses under climate change. This study connects researchers from Chile and California with the goal of understanding the problem of how to adapt to climate change impacts on water resources and agriculture at the various spatial and temporal scales. The project takes advantage of the complementary contexts between Chile and California in terms of similar climate and hydrologic conditions, water management institutions, patterns of water consumption and, importantly, a similar challenge facing recent drought scenarios to understand the challenges faced by a changing climate.

  17. Understanding Controversies in Urban Climate Change Adaptation. A case study of the role of homeowners in the process of climate change adaptation in Copenhagen

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nina Baron

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This article explores the controversies that exist in urban climate change adaptation and how these controversies influence the role of homeowners in urban adaptation planning. A concrete ‘Sustainable Urban Drainages System’ (SUDS project in a housing cooperative in Copenhagen has been used as a case study, thereby investigating multiple understandings of urban climate change adaptation. Several different perspectives are identified with regard to what are and what will become the main climate problems in the urban environment as well as what are considered to be the best responses to these problems. Building on the actor-network inspired theory of ‘urban green assemblages’ we argue that at least three different assemblages can be identified in urban climate change adaptation. Each assemblage constitutes and connects problems and responses differently and thereby involve homeowners in different ways. As climate change is a problem of unknown character and outcome in the future, we argue that it can be problematic if one way of constituting urban climate change adaptation becomes dominant, in which case some climate problems and adaptation options may become less influential, even though the enrolment of these could contribute to a more resilient city. Furthermore, the case study from Copenhagen also shows that the influence and involvement of homeowners might be reduced if the conception of future climate problems becomes too restricted. The result would be that the potential benefits of involving urban citizens in defining and responding to problems related to climate change would be lost.

  18. Conceptualizing In-service Secondary School Science Teachers' Knowledge Base for Promoting Understanding about the Science of Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattacharya, Devarati

    Efforts to adapt and mitigate the effects of global climate change (GCC) have been ongoing for the past two decades and have become a major global concern. However, research and practice for promoting climate literacy and understanding about GCC have only recently become a national priority. The National Research Council (NRC), has recently emphasized upon the importance of developing learners' capacity of reasoning, their argumentation skills and understanding of GCC (Framework for K-12 Science Education, National Research Council, 2012). This framework focuses on fostering conceptual clarity about GCC to promote innovation, resilience, and readiness in students as a response towards the threat of a changing environment. Previous research about teacher understanding of GCC describes that in spite of the prevalent frameworks like the AAAS Science Literacy Atlas (AAAS, 2007) and the Essential Principles for Climate Literacy (United States Global Climate Research Program, 2009; Bardsley, 2007), most learners are challenged in understanding the science of GCC (Michail et al., 2007) and misinformed perceptions about basic climate science content and the role of human activities in changing climate remain persistent (Reibich and Gautier, 2006). Our teacher participants had a rather simplistic knowledge structure. While aware of climate change, teacher participants lacked in depth understanding of how change in climate can impact various ecosystems on the Earth. Furthermore, they felt overwhelmed with the extensive amount of information needed to comprehend the complexity in GCC. Hence, extensive efforts not only focused on assessing conceptual understanding of GCC but also for teaching complex science topics like GCC are essential. This dissertation explains concept mapping, and the photo elicitation method for assessing teachers' understanding of GCC and the use of metacognitive scaffolding in instruction of GCC for developing competence of learners in this complex

  19. JamesWattandhisLinkages

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Admin

    sometimes called) for a straight line. e gene ate a circle with ... See Figu e. A(1). Such an assembly is a linkage. In particular, it is a fou -ba linkage. A linkage can consist of any number of bodies and connections as well as a ... written to his friend and business partner Matthew Boulton: “I have got a glimpse of a method.

  20. Phytoplankton and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moisan, John R.

    2009-01-01

    Ocean phytoplankton supply about half of the oxygen that humans utilize to sustain life. In this lecture, we will explore how phytoplankton plays a critical role in modulating the Earth's climate. These tiny organisms are the base of the Ocean's food web. They can modulate the rate at which solar heat is absorbed by the ocean, either through direct absorption or through production of highly scattering cellular coverings. They take up and help sequester carbon dioxide, a key greenhouse gas that modulated the Earth's climate. They are the source of cloud nucleation gases that are key to cloud formation/processes. They are also able to modify the nutrient budgets of the ocean through active uptake of inert atmospheric nitrogen. Climate variations have a pronounced impact on phytoplankton dynamics. Long term variations in the climate have been studied through geological interpretations on its influence on phytoplankton populations. The presentation will focus on presenting the numerous linkages that have been observed between climate and phytoplankton and further discuss how present climate change scenarios are likely to impact phytoplankton populations as well as present findings from several studies that have tried to understand how the climate might react to the feedbacks from these numerous climate-phytop|ankton linkages.

  1. Biological process linkage networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dikla Dotan-Cohen

    Full Text Available The traditional approach to studying complex biological networks is based on the identification of interactions between internal components of signaling or metabolic pathways. By comparison, little is known about interactions between higher order biological systems, such as biological pathways and processes. We propose a methodology for gleaning patterns of interactions between biological processes by analyzing protein-protein interactions, transcriptional co-expression and genetic interactions. At the heart of the methodology are the concept of Linked Processes and the resultant network of biological processes, the Process Linkage Network (PLN.We construct, catalogue, and analyze different types of PLNs derived from different data sources and different species. When applied to the Gene Ontology, many of the resulting links connect processes that are distant from each other in the hierarchy, even though the connection makes eminent sense biologically. Some others, however, carry an element of surprise and may reflect mechanisms that are unique to the organism under investigation. In this aspect our method complements the link structure between processes inherent in the Gene Ontology, which by its very nature is species-independent. As a practical application of the linkage of processes we demonstrate that it can be effectively used in protein function prediction, having the power to increase both the coverage and the accuracy of predictions, when carefully integrated into prediction methods.Our approach constitutes a promising new direction towards understanding the higher levels of organization of the cell as a system which should help current efforts to re-engineer ontologies and improve our ability to predict which proteins are involved in specific biological processes.

  2. Understanding the role of extreme weather event attribution as a climate service

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walton, P.

    2016-12-01

    Any robust, fit for purpose climate service needs to start with the needs of the people who are going to be using the science. However, experience suggests that this is not a simple process taking time, and periods of discussion to identify issues such as what is needed, how it can used, how can it be used in conjunction with other tools etc. As a relatively new science within the field of climate change, attribution of extreme weather events is still exploring how the science can be applied and how best to support decision-makers in using it. This paper reports on the experiences of a 3-year project that looked to identify what an event attribution service for Europe could look like. Key sectors including insurance, local planners, national policy and law were engaged to better understand their needs for the science, and how the science could be best communicated. Whilst many lessons have been learned about stakeholder needs in terms of accessing information, there is still more that needs developing with regards to what the science can say and how this impacts on the decision-making process.

  3. Probabilistic record linkage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayers, Adrian; Ben-Shlomo, Yoav; Blom, Ashley W; Steele, Fiona

    2016-06-01

    Studies involving the use of probabilistic record linkage are becoming increasingly common. However, the methods underpinning probabilistic record linkage are not widely taught or understood, and therefore these studies can appear to be a 'black box' research tool. In this article, we aim to describe the process of probabilistic record linkage through a simple exemplar. We first introduce the concept of deterministic linkage and contrast this with probabilistic linkage. We illustrate each step of the process using a simple exemplar and describe the data structure required to perform a probabilistic linkage. We describe the process of calculating and interpreting matched weights and how to convert matched weights into posterior probabilities of a match using Bayes theorem. We conclude this article with a brief discussion of some of the computational demands of record linkage, how you might assess the quality of your linkage algorithm, and how epidemiologists can maximize the value of their record-linked research using robust record linkage methods. © The Author 2015; Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

  4. What Is That Thing Called Climate Change? an Investigation into the Understanding of Climate Change by Seventh-Grade Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Özdem, Yasemin; Dal, Burçkin; Öztürk, Nilay; Sönmez, Duygu; Alper, Umut

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents findings from research on students' general environmental concerns, experiences, beliefs, attitudes, worldviews, values, and actions relating to climate change. Data was gathered from a sample of 646 seventh-grade students. The findings indicate that students identify climate change as a consequence of modern life. They…

  5. Understanding How and Why Cities Engage with Climate Policy: An Analysis of Local Climate Action in Spain and Italy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sonia De Gregorio Hurtado

    2015-10-01

    The results of the analysis show a trend towards an increasing awareness on climate mitigation (highly focused on energy efficiency and the promotion of cleaner energy sources, while adaptation remains an incipient local policy area in both countries. The analysis identifies also the beneficial influence of national and international climate city networks.

  6. Towards Understanding the Climate of Venus Applications of Terrestrial Models to Our Sister Planet

    CERN Document Server

    Bonnet, Roger-Maurice; Grinspoon, David; Koumoutsaris, Symeon; Lebonnois, Sebastien; Titov, Dmitri

    2013-01-01

    ESA’s Venus Express Mission has monitored Venus since April 2006, and scientists worldwide have used mathematical models to investigate its atmosphere and model its circulation. This book summarizes recent work to explore and understand the climate of the planet through a research program under the auspices of the International Space Science Institute (ISSI) in Bern, Switzerland. Some of the unique elements that are discussed are the anomalies with Venus’ surface temperature (the huge greenhouse effect causes the surface to rise to 460°C, without which would plummet as low as -40°C), its unusual lack of solar radiation (despite being closer to the Sun, Venus receives less solar radiation than Earth due to its dense cloud cover reflecting 76% back) and the juxtaposition of its atmosphere and planetary rotation (wind speeds can climb up to 200 m/s, much faster than Venus’ sidereal day of 243 Earth-days).

  7. Understanding the systemic nature of cities to improve health and climate change mitigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, Ralph; Howden-Chapman, Philippa; Capon, Anthony

    2016-09-01

    Understanding cities comprehensively as systems is a costly challenge and is typically not feasible for policy makers. Nevertheless, focusing on some key systemic characteristics of cities can give useful insights for policy to advance health and well-being outcomes. Moreover, if we take a coevolutionary systems view of cities, some conventional assumptions about the nature of urban development (e.g. the growth in private vehicle use with income) may not stand up. We illustrate this by examining the coevolution of urban transport and land use systems, and institutional change, giving examples of policy implications. At a high level, our concern derives from the need to better understand the dynamics of urban change, and its implications for health and well-being. At a practical level, we see opportunities to use stylised findings about urban systems to underpin policy experiments. While it is now not uncommon to view cities as systems, policy makers appear to have made little use so far of a systems approach to inform choice of policies with consequences for health and well-being. System insights can be applied to intelligently anticipate change - for example, as cities are subjected to increasing natural system reactions to climate change, they must find ways to mitigate and adapt to it. Secondly, systems insights around policy cobenefits are vital for better informing horizontal policy integration. Lastly, an implication of system complexity is that rather than seeking detailed, 'full' knowledge about urban issues and policies, cities would be well advised to engage in policy experimentation to address increasingly urgent health and climate change issues. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. The need for New In Situ Measurements to Understand the Climate, Geology and Evolution of Venus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grinspoon, D. H.

    2017-12-01

    Many measurements needed to address outstanding questions about current processes and evolution of Venus can only be made from in situ platforms such as entry probes, balloons or landers. Among these are precise determination of the value and altitude dependence of the deuterium-to-hydrogen ratio, an important tracer of water history which, while clearly greatly elevated compared to the terrestrial ratio, is still unknown within a large range of uncertainty and appears, based on Venus Express results, to display an enigmatic altitude dependence. Rare gas abundances and isotopes provide clues to volatile sources and histories of outgassing and exospheric escape. Modern mass spectrometry at Venus would yield abundances of the eight stable xenon isotopes, bulk abundances of krypton, and isotopes of neon. Altitude profiles of sulfur-containing chemical species would illuminate global geochemical cycles, including cloud formation, outgassing rates and surface-atmosphere interactions. The altitude profile of wind speeds and radiation fluxes, interpreted in light of the Venus Express and Akatsuki data, would enrich understanding of the global circulation and climate dynamics of Venus. Descent and surface images of carefully chosen locations would lend ground truth to interpretations of the near-global Magellan data sets and provide context for global remote sensing data obtained by future orbiter missions. Landed instruments would provide refinement and calibration for chemical abundance measurements by historical missions as well as direct mineralogical measurements of Venusian surface and subsurface rocks. In concert with atmospheric measurements these would greatly constrain geologic history as well as the nature of surface-atmosphere interactions. Such a suite of measurements will deepen our understanding of the origin and evolution of Venus in the context of Solar System and extrasolar terrestrial planets, determine the level and style of current geological activity

  9. Teaching Climate Change Using System Models: An Understanding Global Change Project Pilot Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bean, J. R.; Stuhlsatz, M.; Bracey, Z. B.; Marshall, C. R.

    2017-12-01

    Teaching and learning about historical and anthropogenic climate change in the classroom requires integrating instructional resources that address physical, chemical, and biological processes. The Understanding Global Change (UGC) framework and system models developed at the University of California Museum of Paleontology (UCMP) provide visualizations of the relationships and feedbacks between Earth system processes, and the consequences of anthropogenic activities on global climate. This schema provides a mechanism for developing pedagogic narratives that are known to support comprehension and retention of information and relationships. We designed a nine-day instructional unit for middle and high school students that includes a sequence of hands-on, inquiry-based, data rich activities combined with conceptual modeling exercises intended to foster students' development of systems thinking and their understanding of human influences on Earth system processes. The pilot unit, Sea Level Rise in the San Francisco Bay Area, addresses the human causes and consequences of sea level rise and related Earth system processes (i.e., the water cycle and greenhouse effect). Most of the content is not Bay Area specific, and could be used to explore sea level rise in any coastal region. Students completed pre and post assessments, which included questions about the connectedness of components of the Earth system and probed their attitudes towards participating in environmental stewardship activities. Students sequentially drew models representing the content explored in the activities and wrote short descriptions of their system diagrams that were collected by teachers for analysis. We also randomly assigned classes to engage in a very short additional intervention that asked students to think about the role that humans play in the Earth system and to draw themselves into the models. The study will determine if these students have higher stewardship scores and more frequently

  10. VICI (Venus In Situ Composition Investigations): The Next Step in Understanding Venus Climate Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glaze, L. S.; Garvin, J. B.

    2017-12-01

    Venus provides a natural laboratory to explore an example of terrestrial planet evolution that may be cosmically ubiquitous. By better understanding the composition of the Venus atmosphere and surface, we can better constrain the efficiency of the Venusian greenhouse. VICI is a proposed NASA New Frontiers mission that delivers two landers to Venus on two separate Venus fly-bys. Following six orbital remote sensing missions to Venus (since 1978), VICI would be the first mission to land on the Venus surface since 1985, and the first U.S. mission to enter the Venus atmosphere in 49 years. The four major VICI science objectives are: Atmospheric origin and evolution: Understand the origin of the Venus atmosphere, how it has evolved, including how recently Venus lost its oceans, and how and why it is different from the atmospheres of Earth and Mars, through in situ measurements of key noble gases, nitrogen, and hydrogen. Atmospheric composition and structure: Reveal the unknown chemical processes and structure in Venus' deepest atmosphere that dominate the current climate through two comprehensive, in situ vertical profiles. Surface properties and geologic evolution: For the first time ever, explore the tessera from the surface, specifically to test hypotheses of ancient content-building cycles, erosion, and links to past climates using multi-point mineralogy, elemental chemistry, imaging and topography. Surface-atmosphere interactions: Characterize Venus' surface weathering environment and provide insight into the sulfur cycle at the surface-atmosphere interface by integrating rich atmospheric composition and structure datasets with imaging, surface mineralogy, and elemental rock composition. VICI is designed to study Venus' climate history through detailed atmospheric composition measurements not possible on earlier missions. In addition, VICI images the tessera surface during descent enabling detailed topography to be generated. Finally, VICI makes multiple elemental

  11. Proceedings of the adapting to climate change in Canada 2005 conference : understanding risks and building capacity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    This four-day conference provided a national forum for researchers and decision-makers from a variety of disciplines to share information and results on climate change. Sponsored by Natural Resources Canada's Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Program, the conference explored ways to improve knowledge of Canada's vulnerability to climate change, to better assess the benefits and risks of climate change and to examine policies and options through which decisions on adaptation can be made. Conference topics included issues such as global warming; sustainable development; climate change and agriculture; adaptation strategies; water, coastline and marine management and climate change; municipal level management and climate change; climate change and health issues; and many other topics related to climate change. The conference featured paper and poster presentations, opening remarks, and panel discussions. A total of 118 conference papers and 46 conference posters were presented at the conference of which 17 have been catalogued separately in this database. refs., tabs., figs

  12. Comparing linkage designs based on land facets to linkage designs based on focal species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brost, Brian M; Beier, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Least-cost modeling for focal species is the most widely used method for designing conservation corridors and linkages. However, these designs depend on today's land covers, which will be altered by climate change. We recently proposed an alternative approach based on land facets (recurring landscape units of relatively uniform topography and soils). The rationale is that corridors with high continuity of individual land facets will facilitate movement of species associated with each facet today and in the future. Conservation practitioners might like to know whether a linkage design based on land facets is likely to provide continuity of modeled breeding habitat for species needing connectivity today, and whether a linkage for focal species provides continuity and interspersion of land facets. To address these questions, we compared linkages designed for focal species and land facets in three landscapes in Arizona, USA. We used two variables to measure linkage utility, namely distances between patches of modeled breeding habitat for 5-16 focal species in each linkage, and resistance profiles for focal species and land facets between patches connected by the linkage. Compared to focal species designs, linkage designs based on land facets provided as much or more modeled habitat connectivity for 25 of 28 species-landscape combinations, failing only for the three species with the most narrowly distributed habitat. Compared to land facets designs, focal species linkages provided lower connectivity for about half the land facets in two landscapes. In areas where a focal species approach to linkage design is not possible, our results suggest that conservation practitioners may be able to implement a land facets approach with some confidence that the linkage design would serve most potential focal species. In areas where focal species designs are possible, we recommend using the land facet approach to complement, rather than replace, focal species approaches.

  13. Early Holocene hydroclimate of Baffin Bay: Understanding the interplay between abrupt climate change events and ice sheet fluctuations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corcoran, M. C.; Thomas, E. K.; Castañeda, I. S.; Briner, J. P.

    2017-12-01

    Understanding the causes of ice sheet fluctuations resulting in sea level rise is essential in today's warming climate. In high-latitude ice-sheet-proximal environments such as Baffin Bay, studying both the cause and the rate of ice sheet variability during past abrupt climate change events aids in predictions. Past climate reconstructions are used to understand ice sheet responses to changes in temperature and precipitation. The 9,300 and 8,200 yr BP events are examples of abrupt climate change events in the Baffin Bay region during which there were multiple re-advances of the Greenland and Laurentide ice sheets. High-resolution (decadal-scale) hydroclimate variability near the ice sheet margins during these abrupt climate change events is still unknown. We will generate a decadal-scale record of early Holocene temperature and precipitation using leaf wax hydrogen isotopes, δ2Hwax, from a lake sediment archive on Baffin Island, western Baffin Bay, to better understand abrupt climate change in this region. Shifts in temperature and moisture source result in changes in environmental water δ2H, which in turn is reflected in δ2Hwax, allowing for past hydroclimate to be determined from these compound-specific isotopes. The combination of terrestrial and aquatic δ2Hwax is used to determine soil evaporation and is ultimately used to reconstruct moisture variability. We will compare our results with a previous analysis of δ2Hwax and branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers, a temperature and pH proxy, in lake sediment from western Greenland, eastern Baffin Bay, which indicates that cool and dry climate occurred in response to freshwater forcing events in the Labrador Sea. Reconstructing and comparing records on both the western and eastern sides of Baffin Bay during the early Holocene will allow for a spatial understanding of temperature and moisture balance changes during abrupt climate events, aiding in ice sheet modeling and predictions of future sea level

  14. Predicting Plant Diversity Patterns in Madagascar: Understanding the Effects of Climate and Land Cover Change in a Biodiversity Hotspot

    OpenAIRE

    Brown, Kerry A.; Parks, Katherine E.; Bethell, Colin A.; Johnson, Steig E.; Mulligan, Mark

    2015-01-01

    Climate and land cover change are driving a major reorganization of terrestrial biotic communities in tropical ecosystems. In an effort to understand how biodiversity patterns in the tropics will respond to individual and combined effects of these two drivers of environmental change, we use species distribution models (SDMs) calibrated for recent climate and land cover variables and projected to future scenarios to predict changes in diversity patterns in Madagascar. We collected occurrence r...

  15. Subsidiary Linkage Patterns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersson, Ulf; Perri, Alessandra; Nell, Phillip C.

    2012-01-01

    This paper investigates the pattern of subsidiaries' local vertical linkages under varying levels of competition and subsidiary capabilities. Contrary to most previous literature, we explicitly account for the double role of such linkages as conduits of learning prospects as well as potential cha...

  16. Understanding Hydroclimatic Extremes in Changing Monsoon Climates with Daily Bias Correction of CMIP5 Regional Climate Models over South Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasan, M. A.; Islam, A. S.; Akanda, A. S. S.

    2015-12-01

    The assessment of hydroclimatic and hydrometeorological extremes in changing climates has gathered special attention in the latest IPCC 5thAssessment Report (AR5). In monsoon regions such as South Asia, hydrologic modeling (i.e., stream flow assessment, water budget analysis, etc.) needs to incorporate such extremes to simulate retrospective and future scenarios. For information of past and future climate, Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are preferred over global models due to their higher resolution and dynamic downscaling capabilities. Although the models perform well in representing the mean climate, they still possess significant biases, especially in daily hydrometeorological extremes over monsoon regions. Therefore, modification and correction of RCM results while preserving the extremes are crucial for hydrologic modeling in changing monsoon climates such as in South Asia. In this context, we generate a gridded observed product that preserve the hydroclimatic and hydrometeorological extremes for the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) basin region in South Asia. A recent approach to bias correction is also proposed for correcting regional climate data in currently available future projections. The 30 year dataset (1971-2010) is used for comparing hydroclimatic and hydrometeorological extremes with APHRODITE and ERA-Interim Reanalysis products. The assessment has revealed that the new gridded data set provides much accurate maximum rainfall intensity, number of dry days, number of wet days and number of rainy days with greater than 500mm rainfall than any other available gridded data products. Using the gridded data sets, bias correctionis applied on CMIP5 multi-model historical datasets to evaluate RCM data performance over the region, which show great improvement in regional climate data for future hydrologic modeling scenarios and analyzing impacts of climate extremes.

  17. Contributions to the Understanding of Aerosol Microphysics Towards Improving the Assessment of Climate Radiative Forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawson, Kyle William

    The study of climate and the associated impacts imposed by human activity has garnered the attention of scientists and policy makers since the 1950s. Research into the various atmospheric constituents that interact with solar radiation thus modulating Earth's radiative budget has been largely focused on the contributions from greenhouse gases and later focused on the role of atmospheric aerosol. The role of atmospheric aerosol, i.e. a solid or aqueous phase particulate, is complex and presents an opportunity for bettering the assessments of climate radiative forcing (i.e. the fraction of climate change due to anthropogenic, rather than natural, activities) in several ways. First, motivated to better understand the radiative effects of the Earth's background aerosol state to improve the assessment of anthropogenic effects, an experimental study on the water uptake ability of xanthan gum as a proxy for marine hydrogel, a component of natural primary emitted seaspray aerosol, is presented. Marine hydrogel comprises an organic component of the ocean surface microlayer that is released to the atmosphere via the bursting of bubbles generated by entrainment of air through crashing waves. This study investigates the water uptake ability (i.e. hygroscopicity) of these particles when exposed to a range of relative humidity (RH). The hydration characteristics of aerosolized pure xanthan gum as well as xanthan gum/salt mixtures were studied using a hygroscopic tandem differential mobility analyzer (HTDMA) and cloud condensation nuclei counter (CCNc). The hygroscopicity of the various solutions were compared to theoretical thermodynamic calculations accounting for the component volume fractions as a function of relative humidity. The data show that pure xanthan gum aerosol hygroscopicity behaves as other organic polysaccharides and, when combined with salts, is reasonably approximated by the volume fraction mixing rules above 90% RH. Deviations occur below 90% RH as well as for

  18. Centennial to millennial climate variability in the far northwestern Pacific (off Kamchatka) and its linkage to the East Asian monsoon and North Atlantic from the Last Glacial Maximum to the early Holocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorbarenko, Sergey A.; Shi, Xuefa; Malakhova, Galina Yu.; Bosin, Aleksandr A.; Zou, Jianjun; Liu, Yanguang; Chen, Min-Te

    2017-08-01

    High-resolution reconstructions based on productivity proxies and magnetic properties of core LV63-41-2 (off Kamchatka) reveal prevailing centennial productivity/climate variability in the northwestern (NW) Pacific from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the early Holocene (EH). The age model of the core is established by AMS 14C dating and by projections of AMS 14C data of the nearby core SO-201-12KL through correlation of the productivity proxies and relative paleomagnetic intensity. The resulting sequence of centennial productivity increases/climate warming events in the NW Pacific occurred synchronously with the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) sub-interstadials during the LGM (four events), Heinrich Event 1 (HE1) (four events), Bølling-Allerød (B/A) warming (four events), and over the EH (four events). Remarkable similarity of the sequence of the NW Pacific increased-productivity events with the EASM sub-interstadials over the LGM-HE1 implies that the Siberian High is a strong and common driver. The comparison with the δ18O record from Antarctica suggests that another mechanism associated with the temperature gradient in the Southern Hemisphere may also be responsible for the EASM/NW Pacific centennial events over the LGM-HE1. During the B/A warming and resumption of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), clear synchronicity between the NW Pacific, EASM and Greenland sub-interstadials was mainly controlled by changes in the atmospheric circulation. During the EH the linkages between solar forcing, ocean circulation, and climate changes likely control the synchronicity of abrupt climate changes in the NW Pacific and North Atlantic. The sequence of centennial events recorded in this study is a persistent regional feature during the LGM-EH, which may serve as a template in high-resolution paleoceanography and sediment stratigraphy in the NW Pacific.

  19. Centennial to millennial climate variability in the far northwestern Pacific (off Kamchatka and its linkage to the East Asian monsoon and North Atlantic from the Last Glacial Maximum to the early Holocene

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. A. Gorbarenko

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available High-resolution reconstructions based on productivity proxies and magnetic properties of core LV63-41-2 (off Kamchatka reveal prevailing centennial productivity/climate variability in the northwestern (NW Pacific from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM to the early Holocene (EH. The age model of the core is established by AMS 14C dating and by projections of AMS 14C data of the nearby core SO-201-12KL through correlation of the productivity proxies and relative paleomagnetic intensity. The resulting sequence of centennial productivity increases/climate warming events in the NW Pacific occurred synchronously with the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM sub-interstadials during the LGM (four events, Heinrich Event 1 (HE1 (four events, Bølling–Allerød (B/A warming (four events, and over the EH (four events. Remarkable similarity of the sequence of the NW Pacific increased-productivity events with the EASM sub-interstadials over the LGM-HE1 implies that the Siberian High is a strong and common driver. The comparison with the δ18O record from Antarctica suggests that another mechanism associated with the temperature gradient in the Southern Hemisphere may also be responsible for the EASM/NW Pacific centennial events over the LGM-HE1. During the B/A warming and resumption of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC, clear synchronicity between the NW Pacific, EASM and Greenland sub-interstadials was mainly controlled by changes in the atmospheric circulation. During the EH the linkages between solar forcing, ocean circulation, and climate changes likely control the synchronicity of abrupt climate changes in the NW Pacific and North Atlantic. The sequence of centennial events recorded in this study is a persistent regional feature during the LGM-EH, which may serve as a template in high-resolution paleoceanography and sediment stratigraphy in the NW Pacific.

  20. iRESM INITIATIVE UNDERSTANDING DECISION SUPPORT NEEDS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION --US Midwest Region—

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rice, Jennie S.; Runci, Paul J.; Moss, Richard H.; Anderson, Kate L.

    2010-10-01

    The impacts of climate change are already affecting human and environmental systems worldwide, yet many uncertainties persist in the prediction of future climate changes and impacts due to limitations in scientific understanding of relevant causal factors. In particular, there is mounting urgency to efforts to improve models of human and environmental systems at the regional scale, and to integrate climate, ecosystem and energy-economic models to support policy, investment, and risk management decisions related to climate change mitigation (i.e., reducing greenhouse gas emissions) and adaptation (i.e., responding to climate change impacts). The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is developing a modeling framework, the integrated Regional Earth System Model (iRESM), to address regional human-environmental system interactions in response to climate change and the uncertainties therein. The framework will consist of a suite of integrated models representing regional climate change, regional climate policy, and the regional economy, with a focus on simulating the mitigation and adaptation decisions made over time in the energy, transportation, agriculture, and natural resource management sectors.

  1. Atmospheric Extremes in a Changing Climate: A Strategy for Improved Understanding Driven by International Security Concerns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, A. B.; Kao, C. J.

    2001-05-01

    critical threshold crossing. So extreme atmospheric phenomena are of the essence yet they are poorly understood, even in a steady climate, because they challenge both dynamical modelers and statisticians. The authors will describe a preliminary proposal to harness some of the unique human, computational and observational resources at LANL that could lead to a significant breakthrough in our understanding of extreme weather mechanisms and how they relate to climate and climate change. If implemented, this program could open new relationships between the laboratory and presently unsuspecting client-agencies such as FEMA, CDC, EPA, State Department, and so on.

  2. Mainstreaming Climate Change: Recent and Ongoing Efforts to Understand, Improve, and Expand Consideration of Climate Change in Federal Water Resources Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferguson, I. M.; McGuire, M.; Broman, D.; Gangopadhyay, S.

    2017-12-01

    The Bureau of Reclamation is a Federal agency tasked with developing and managing water supply and hydropower projects in the Western U.S. Climate and hydrologic variability and change significantly impact management actions and outcomes across Reclamation's programs and initiatives, including water resource planning and operations, infrastructure design and maintenance, hydropower generation, and ecosystem restoration, among others. Planning, design, and implementation of these programs therefore requires consideration of future climate and hydrologic conditions will impact program objectives. Over the past decade, Reclamation and other Federal agencies have adopted new guidelines, directives, and mandates that require consideration of climate change in water resources planning and decision making. Meanwhile, the scientific community has developed a large number of climate projections, along with an array of models, methods, and tools to facilitate consideration of climate projections in planning and decision making. However, water resources engineers, planners, and decision makers continue to face challenges regarding how best to use the available data and tools to support major decisions, including decisions regarding infrastructure investments and long-term operating criteria. This presentation will discuss recent and ongoing research towards understanding, improving, and expanding consideration of climate projections and related uncertainties in Federal water resources planning and decision making. These research efforts address a variety of challenges, including: How to choose between available climate projection datasets and related methods, models, and tools—many of which are considered experimental or research tools? How to select an appropriate decision framework when design or operating alternatives may differ between climate scenarios? How to effectively communicate results of a climate impacts analysis to decision makers? And, how to improve

  3. Characterizing and understanding the climatic determinism of high- to low-frequency variations in precipitation in northwestern France using a coupled wavelet multiresolution/statistical downscaling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massei, Nicolas; Dieppois, Bastien; Hannah, David; Lavers, David; Fossa, Manuel; Laignel, Benoit; Debret, Maxime

    2017-04-01

    Geophysical signals oscillate over several time-scales that explain different amount of their overall variability and may be related to different physical processes. Characterizing and understanding such variabilities in hydrological variations and investigating their determinism is one important issue in a context of climate change, as these variabilities can be occasionally superimposed to long-term trend possibly due to climate change. It is also important to refine our understanding of time-scale dependent linkages between large-scale climatic variations and hydrological responses on the regional or local-scale. Here we investigate such links by conducting a wavelet multiresolution statistical dowscaling approach of precipitation in northwestern France (Seine river catchment) over 1950-2016 using sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature (SST) as indicators of atmospheric and oceanic circulations, respectively. Previous results demonstrated that including multiresolution decomposition in a statistical downscaling model (within a so-called multiresolution ESD model) using SLP as large-scale predictor greatly improved simulation of low-frequency, i.e. interannual to interdecadal, fluctuations observed in precipitation. Building on these results, continuous wavelet transform of simulated precipiation using multiresolution ESD confirmed the good performance of the model to better explain variability at all time-scales. A sensitivity analysis of the model to the choice of the scale and wavelet function used was also tested. It appeared that whatever the wavelet used, the model performed similarly. The spatial patterns of SLP found as the best predictors for all time-scales, which resulted from the wavelet decomposition, revealed different structures according to time-scale, showing possible different determinisms. More particularly, some low-frequency components ( 3.2-yr and 19.3-yr) showed a much wide-spread spatial extentsion across the Atlantic

  4. Prehistoric demographic fluctuations in China inferred from radiocarbon data and their linkage with climate change over the past 50,000 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Can; Lu, Houyuan; Zhang, Jianping; Gu, Zhaoyan; He, Keyang

    2014-08-01

    Historic human-climate interactions have been of interest to scholars for a long time. However, exploring the long-term relation between prehistoric demography and climate change remains challenging because of the absence of an effective proxy for population reconstruction. Recently, the summed probability distribution of archaeological radiocarbon dates has been widely used as a proxy for human population levels, although researchers recognize that such usage must be cautious. This approach is rarely applied in China due to the lack of a comprehensive archaeological radiocarbon database, and thus the relation between human population and climate change in China remains ambiguous. Herein we systematically compile an archaeological 14C database (n = 4656) for China for the first time. Using the summed probability distributions of the radiocarbon dates alongside high-resolution palaeoclimatic records, we show that: 1) the commencement of major population expansion in China was at 9 ka cal BP, occurring after the appearance of agriculture and associated with the early Holocene climate amelioration; 2) the major periods of small population size and population decline, i.e., 46-43 ka cal BP, 41-38 ka cal BP, 31-28.6 ka cal BP, 25-23.5 ka cal BP, 18-15.2 ka cal BP, and 13-11.4 ka cal BP, correspond well with the dating of abrupt cold events in the Last Glacial (LG) such as the Heinrich and Younger Dryas (YD) events, while the major periods of high-level population in the Holocene, i.e., 8.5-7 ka cal BP, 6.5-5 ka cal BP and 4.3-2.8 ka cal BP, occur at the same times as warm-moist conditions and Neolithic cultural prosperity, suggesting that abrupt cooling in the climate profoundly limited population size and that mild climate episodes spurred a growth in prehistoric populations and advances in human cultures; and 3) populations in different regions experience different growth trajectories and that their responses to climate change are varied, due to both regional

  5. The impact of the linkage between grade distribution and petrofabric on the understanding of structurally controlled mineral deposits: Ouro Fino Gold Mine, Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monteiro, R. N.; Fyfe, W. S.; Chemale, F.

    2004-06-01

    Ore deposit structural analysis, using a combination of structural geology and geostatistics, has direct application in the mining industry. Its main goal is to integrate structural measurements and assay data to create a method in which structurally controlled deposits are modeled numerically. This provides guidance to grade control and pit optimization during mining, improves prediction of orebody geometry and orientation, and provides more effective exploration strategies for surrounding areas. The method leads to a better understanding of how mineralized fluids percolated and were focused at the Ouro Fino Mine, a shear zone-hosted gold deposit in Minas Gerais State, Brazil. In this mine, gold is distributed along permeability pathways within rock fabrics that were produced or modified during the Brasiliano orogeny, when the Espinhaço-Araçuaı´ sequence was inverted towards the São Francisco craton during a basement-involved fold-and-thrust regime. The resulting permeable zones are conformable with the C surface, within which two other clusters of fabric elements control the large-scale features of the mineralization: (1) a cluster of fabric elements (mineral, stretching and intersection lineations) that plunges SE; and (2) a sub-horizontal cluster along folds and intersection lineations and the strike of the shear zone.

  6. Using Climate Regionalization to Understand Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) Precipitation Performance for the Conterminous United States (CONUS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regonda, Satish K.; Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Badr, Hamada S.; Rodell, Matthew

    2016-01-01

    Dynamically based seasonal forecasts are prone to systematic spatial biases due to imperfections in the underlying global climate model (GCM). This can result in low-forecast skill when the GCM misplaces teleconnections or fails to resolve geographic barriers, even if the prediction of large-scale dynamics is accurate. To characterize and address this issue, this study applies objective climate regionalization to identify discrepancies between the Climate Forecast SystemVersion 2 (CFSv2) and precipitation observations across the Contiguous United States (CONUS). Regionalization shows that CFSv2 1 month forecasts capture the general spatial character of warm season precipitation variability but that forecast regions systematically differ from observation in some transition zones. CFSv2 predictive skill for these misclassified areas is systematically reduced relative to correctly regionalized areas and CONUS as a whole. In these incorrectly regionalized areas, higher skill can be obtained by using a regional-scale forecast in place of the local grid cell prediction.

  7. Understanding the Effects of Climate Change on Urban Stormwater Infrastructures in the Las Vegas Valley

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ranjeet Thakali

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The intensification of the hydrological cycle due to climate change entails more frequent and intense rainfall. As a result, urban water systems will be disproportionately affected by the climate change, especially in such urban areas as Las Vegas, which concentrates its population, infrastructure, and economic activity. Proper design and management of stormwater facilities are needed to attenuate the severe effects of extreme rainfall events. The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program is developing multiple high-resolution projected-climate data from different combinations of regional climate models and global climate models. The objective of this study was to evaluate existing stormwater facilities of a watershed within the Las Vegas Valley in southern Nevada by using a robust design method for the projected climate. The projected climate change was incorporated into the model at the 100 year return period with 6 h duration depths, using a statistical regionalization analysis method. Projection from different sets of climate model combinations varied substantially. Gridded reanalysis data were used to assess the performance of the climate models. An existing Hydrologic Engineering Center’s Hydrological Modeling System (HEC-HMS model was implemented using the projected change in standard design storm. Hydrological simulation using HEC-HMS showed exceedances of existing stormwater facilities that were designed under the assumption of stationarity design depth. Recognizing climate change and taking an immediate approach in assessing the city’s vulnerability by using proper strategic planning would benefit the urban sector and improve the quality of life.

  8. Using physiology to understand climate-driven changes in disease and their implications for conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohr, Jason R; Raffel, Thomas R; Blaustein, Andrew R; Johnson, Pieter T J; Paull, Sara H; Young, Suzanne

    2013-01-01

    Controversy persists regarding the contributions of climate change to biodiversity losses, through its effects on the spread and emergence of infectious diseases. One of the reasons for this controversy is that there are few mechanistic studies that explore the links among climate change, infectious disease, and declines of host populations. Given that host-parasite interactions are generally mediated by physiological responses, we submit that physiological models could facilitate the prediction of how host-parasite interactions will respond to climate change, and might offer theoretical and terminological cohesion that has been lacking in the climate change-disease literature. We stress that much of the work on how climate influences host-parasite interactions has emphasized changes in climatic means, despite a hallmark of climate change being changes in climatic variability and extremes. Owing to this gap, we highlight how temporal variability in weather, coupled with non-linearities in responses to mean climate, can be used to predict the effects of climate on host-parasite interactions. We also discuss the climate variability hypothesis for disease-related declines, which posits that increased unpredictable temperature variability might provide a temporary advantage to pathogens because they are smaller and have faster metabolisms than their hosts, allowing more rapid acclimatization following a temperature shift. In support of these hypotheses, we provide case studies on the role of climatic variability in host population declines associated with the emergence of the infectious diseases chytridiomycosis, withering syndrome, and malaria. Finally, we present a mathematical model that provides the scaffolding to integrate metabolic theory, physiological mechanisms, and large-scale spatiotemporal processes to predict how simultaneous changes in climatic means, variances, and extremes will affect host-parasite interactions. However, several outstanding questions

  9. Predicting plant diversity patterns in Madagascar: understanding the effects of climate and land cover change in a biodiversity hotspot.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kerry A Brown

    Full Text Available Climate and land cover change are driving a major reorganization of terrestrial biotic communities in tropical ecosystems. In an effort to understand how biodiversity patterns in the tropics will respond to individual and combined effects of these two drivers of environmental change, we use species distribution models (SDMs calibrated for recent climate and land cover variables and projected to future scenarios to predict changes in diversity patterns in Madagascar. We collected occurrence records for 828 plant genera and 2186 plant species. We developed three scenarios, (i.e., climate only, land cover only and combined climate-land cover based on recent and future climate and land cover variables. We used this modelling framework to investigate how the impacts of changes to climate and land cover influenced biodiversity across ecoregions and elevation bands. There were large-scale climate- and land cover-driven changes in plant biodiversity across Madagascar, including both losses and gains in diversity. The sharpest declines in biodiversity were projected for the eastern escarpment and high elevation ecosystems. Sharp declines in diversity were driven by the combined climate-land cover scenarios; however, there were subtle, region-specific differences in model outputs for each scenario, where certain regions experienced relatively higher species loss under climate or land cover only models. We strongly caution that predicted future gains in plant diversity will depend on the development and maintenance of dispersal pathways that connect current and future suitable habitats. The forecast for Madagascar's plant diversity in the face of future environmental change is worrying: regional diversity will continue to decrease in response to the combined effects of climate and land cover change, with habitats such as ericoid thickets and eastern lowland and sub-humid forests particularly vulnerable into the future.

  10. Predicting plant diversity patterns in Madagascar: understanding the effects of climate and land cover change in a biodiversity hotspot.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Kerry A; Parks, Katherine E; Bethell, Colin A; Johnson, Steig E; Mulligan, Mark

    2015-01-01

    Climate and land cover change are driving a major reorganization of terrestrial biotic communities in tropical ecosystems. In an effort to understand how biodiversity patterns in the tropics will respond to individual and combined effects of these two drivers of environmental change, we use species distribution models (SDMs) calibrated for recent climate and land cover variables and projected to future scenarios to predict changes in diversity patterns in Madagascar. We collected occurrence records for 828 plant genera and 2186 plant species. We developed three scenarios, (i.e., climate only, land cover only and combined climate-land cover) based on recent and future climate and land cover variables. We used this modelling framework to investigate how the impacts of changes to climate and land cover influenced biodiversity across ecoregions and elevation bands. There were large-scale climate- and land cover-driven changes in plant biodiversity across Madagascar, including both losses and gains in diversity. The sharpest declines in biodiversity were projected for the eastern escarpment and high elevation ecosystems. Sharp declines in diversity were driven by the combined climate-land cover scenarios; however, there were subtle, region-specific differences in model outputs for each scenario, where certain regions experienced relatively higher species loss under climate or land cover only models. We strongly caution that predicted future gains in plant diversity will depend on the development and maintenance of dispersal pathways that connect current and future suitable habitats. The forecast for Madagascar's plant diversity in the face of future environmental change is worrying: regional diversity will continue to decrease in response to the combined effects of climate and land cover change, with habitats such as ericoid thickets and eastern lowland and sub-humid forests particularly vulnerable into the future.

  11. A pantograph linkage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cole, G.V.

    1982-01-01

    A pantograph linkage is actuated by two linear actuators, pivotally connected together at the linkage. The displacement of the actuators is monitored by rectilinear potentiometers to provide feedback signals to a microprocessor which also receives input signals related to a required movement of a slave end of the linkage. In response to these signals, the microprocessor provides signals to control the displacement of the linear actuators to effect the required movement of the slave end. The movement of the slave end might be straightline in a substantially horizontal or vertical direction. (author)

  12. Mandatory Climate Change Discussions in Online Classrooms: Promoting Students' Climate Literacy and Understanding of the Nature of Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clary, Renee M.; Wandersee, James H.

    2012-01-01

    Graduate students entered our online classrooms with robust, but nonscientific, opinions on climate change. To expose students to critical analysis of media and emphasize the nature of science, we required them to access scientific reports and participate in mandatory peer discussions. An introductory survey probed incoming knowledge and opinions,…

  13. Linkages between rapid climate variability and deep-sea benthic foraminifera in the deep Subantarctic South Atlantic during the last 95 kyr

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diz, Paula; Barker, Stephen

    2015-06-01

    We present a high-resolution record of benthic foraminifera fauna from a sediment core retrieved from the South Cape Basin (Subantarctic South Atlantic) spanning the last glacial cycle (95 kyr). Information provided by benthic foraminiferal assemblages together with paleoclimate proxies from the same core allow us to interpret changes in the style of primary production (episodic versus sustained) in relation to abrupt climate oscillations. Our results indicate that fluctuations in the abundance of the phytodetritus-related species, Epistominella exigua, are concomitant with millennial-scale high-latitude climate perturbations. Episodic phytoplankton blooms increased during a negative mode of the bipolar seesaw, irrespective of the magnitude of the perturbation (i.e., Heinrich stadial versus non-Heinrich stadial events). We provide a hypothesis linking the frequency and intensity of these events to atmospheric perturbations, interhemispheric climate variability, and millennial-scale changes in atmospheric CO2. A notable exception to the overall pattern is the generally high abundance of E. exigua across the globally synchronous onset of glacial marine oxygen isotope stage (MIS) 4, a period generally characterized by increased dustiness and low-quality organic carbon as inferred by the percentage of the nonphytodetritus species. This highlights the special characteristics governing the onset of MIS 4 in the Subantarctic.

  14. Chinese Tourists’ Perceptions of Climate Change and Mitigation Behavior: An Application of Norm Activation Theory

    OpenAIRE

    Guiqiang Qiao; Jun Gao

    2017-01-01

    It is well recognized that tourism development is a prominent contributor to climate change, but is also a “victim” of climate change. Therefore, to mitigate climate change is of great importance for the sustainability of tourism. Yet extant studies regarding tourism and climate change tend to be dominated by a supply-side stance, albeit the core role of the tourist in the tourism industry. While researchers are increasingly adopting a tourist perspective, few seek to understand the linkage b...

  15. Subsidiary Linkage Patterns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Perri, Alessandra; Andersson, Ulf; Nell, Phillip C.

    This paper investigates local vertical linkages of foreign subsidiaries and the dual role of such linkages as conduits for learning as well as potential channels for spillovers to competitors. On the basis of data from 97 subsidiaries, we analyze the quality of such linkages under varying levels...... of competition and subsidiary capabilities. Our theoretical development and the results from the analysis document a far more complex and dynamic relationship between levels of competition and MNCs’ local participation in knowledge intensive activities, i.e. learning and spillovers, than previous studies do. We...... find a curvilinear relationship between the extent of competitive pressure and the quality of local linkages confirming our argument of a trade-off between learning prospects and spillover risks. Furthermore, the level of subsidiary capabilities moderates this relationship....

  16. Learning network theory : its contribution to our understanding of work-based learning projects and learning climate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Poell, R.F.; Moorsel, M.A.A.H. van

    1996-01-01

    This paper discusses the relevance of Van der Krogt's learning network theory (1995) for our understanding of the concepts of work-related learning projects and learning climate in organisations. The main assumptions of the learning network theory are presented and transferred to the level of

  17. Understanding the adaptation deficit: why are poor countries more vulnerable to climate events than rich countries?

    OpenAIRE

    Samuel Fankhauser; Thomas K. J. McDermott

    2014-01-01

    Poor countries are more heavily affected by extreme weather events and future climate change than rich countries. This discrepancy is sometimes known as an adaptation deficit. This paper analyses the link between income and adaptation to climate events theoretically and empirically. We postulate that the adaptation deficit is due to two factors: A demand effect, whereby the demand for the good �climate security� increases with income, and an efficiency effect, which works as a spill-over exte...

  18. Perceptions and understanding of climate change in Sri Lanka : a case study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Patabendi, P. [Team for Disaster Prevention and Sustainable Development, Kaduwela (Sri Lanka)

    2000-06-01

    A citizen's organization in Sri Lanka is conducting a study on current perceptions and attitudes of climate change in a small village in southern Sri Lanka just 100 km north of the capital city of Colombo. The study involves 500 villagers, of which the majority are farmers. While not yet completed, several interesting facts are emerging from this study. The 65,610 sq. km island of Sri Lanka is divided into two distinct climate regions, the wet and dry zones. The mean temperature of the island ranges from 26 to 28 degrees C. Rainfall occurs during the southwest and northeast monsoons. The three main factors for climatic change in Sri Lanka are depressions in the Bay of Bengal, intermonsoonal rain, and deforestation. A total of 500 households were given a questionnaire which was divided into the following 4 sections: (1) socio-economic situation of the household, (2) impacts of climate change, (3) behavioural intentions for actions to reduce the advance impacts of climate change, and (4) ideas about public policies to address climate change. Group discussions were also held to allow villagers to express their voices and raise questions. The study indicates that the villagers have a comprehensive perception about climate change issues in their community (experience gained by flash floods), but have less knowledge about climate change issues in the country. Many villagers believe that political intervention is necessary for any effective climate policy to emerge.

  19. Beyond Climate Scenarios: Advancing from Changes in the Mean to a Better Understanding of Physical Processes to Enhance Stakeholder Engagement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yates, D. N.; Kaatz, L.; Ammann, C. M.

    2017-12-01

    Great strides have been made within the climate sciences community to make Global Climate Model (GCM) output and their results as meaningful as possible to the broad community of stakeholders that might benefit from this information. Regardless of these good intentions, the fact remains that most data from GCMs are viewed as being highly uncertain and thus not actionable for water resources planning. The most common use of GCM data is informing projected future climate by use of a mean change, primarily for temperature, given the generally greater confidence in this variable. In contrast, precipitation is viewed as highly uncertain, primarily because it has not validated well against observed precipitation climatologies at local and regional levels. Simple perturbations to historical mean temperature and precipitation sequences are not as complex as using direct GCM outputs and have fewer analytical requirements. Mean climate change information can still give valuable information to water managers, providing meaningful insights and sign posts into future vulnerabilities and is an approach that is arguably deemed more actionable. These temperature and precipitation sign posts can be monitored and used as indicators when certain actions become necessary and/or until there are improvements in actionable climate science information. Recent advances in regional climate modeling (RCM), particularly those run at very high resolution and are cloud resolving, show promise in advancing our understanding of the interaction among climate variables at the regional level. Thus, in addition to exploring how changes in the mean climate (e.g. 2oC warming) might impact a water system, this bottom-up approach makes use of carefully constructed regional climate experiments that are conducted, for example, under conditions of a warmer atmosphere that can hold more moisture. One can then explore what happens to, for example, rain-snow partitioning at various elevations across a snow

  20. Understanding Farmer Perspectives on Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation: The Roles of Trust in Sources of Climate Information, Climate Change Beliefs, and Perceived Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arbuckle, J Gordon; Morton, Lois Wright; Hobbs, Jon

    2015-02-01

    Agriculture is vulnerable to climate change and a source of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Farmers face pressures to adjust agricultural systems to make them more resilient in the face of increasingly variable weather (adaptation) and reduce GHG production (mitigation). This research examines relationships between Iowa farmers' trust in environmental or agricultural interest groups as sources of climate information, climate change beliefs, perceived climate risks to agriculture, and support for adaptation and mitigation responses. Results indicate that beliefs varied with trust, and beliefs in turn had a significant direct effect on perceived risks from climate change. Support for adaptation varied with perceived risks, while attitudes toward GHG reduction (mitigation) were associated predominantly with variation in beliefs. Most farmers were supportive of adaptation responses, but few endorsed GHG reduction, suggesting that outreach should focus on interventions that have adaptive and mitigative properties (e.g., reduced tillage, improved fertilizer management).

  1. Use of Climate Information for Decision-Making and Impacts Research: State of Our Understanding

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-03-01

    first known as general circulation models—were initially developed to model the energy budget of the earth system and the impact of external factors...of twenty-first-century policy for multi- millennial climate and sea-level change. Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2923 48 Crane

  2. Understanding the science of climate change: Talking points - Impacts to the Atlantic Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rachel Loehman; Greer Anderson

    2009-01-01

    Observed 20th century climate changes in the Atlantic Coast bioregion include warmer air and sea surface temperatures, increased winter precipitation (especially rainfall), and an increased frequency of extreme precipitation events. Climate change impacts during the century include phenological shifts in plant and animals species, such as earlier occurrence of lilac...

  3. Understanding Climate Change Perceptions, Attitudes, and Needs of Forest Service Resource Managers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlos Rodriguez-Franco; Tara J. Haan

    2015-01-01

    Surveys were collected to assess Forest Service (FS) resource managers' perceptions, attitudes, and informational needs related to climate change and its potential impacts on forests and grasslands. Resource managers with three background types were surveyed. All participants generally considered themselves to be well-informed on climate change issues, although...

  4. Exploiting temporal variability to understand tree recruitment response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ines Ibanez; James S. Clark; Shannon LaDeau; Janneke Hill Ris Lambers

    2007-01-01

    Predicting vegetation shifts under climate change is a challenging endeavor, given the complex interactions between biotic and abiotic variables that influence demographic rates. To determine how current trends and variation in climate change affect seedling establishment, we analyzed demographic responses to spatiotemporal variation to temperature and soil moisture in...

  5. From Bearing Witness to Art Exhibitions to Inspiring the Understanding of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burko, D.

    2016-12-01

    I intend to demonstrate how artists such as myself can influence the public discourse on climate change. I believe aesthetically compelling visualizations can transcend data and language. I will speak specifically to how I communicate scientific research to diverse populations. I have much to share since first speaking in 2012 on the Panel "Communication of Science through Art: Raison d'Etre for Interdisciplinary Communication". I then illustrated how I utilized visual cues such as archival evidence in the form of repeats, geological charts of recessional lines, graphs, symbols and Landsat maps in my large scale paintings and photographs and inspired learning. I continue to develop visual strategies delivering information on an emotional/non-verbal level. Now 4 years later, I've added the most dramatic layer to my creative process: bearing witness. I've been to the three largest ice fields in the world: Greenland, Antarctica and Argentina's Patagonia, observing the unprecedented pace of glacial melt. Those expeditions feed my practice, leading to exhibitions that begin a dialog with an audience not initially interested in science. In the past 5 years my work has appeared in 6 solo and 19 group exhibits all devoted to the environment. I make myself present in universities, museums and galleries to explain what the images are about. I require universities to include a public component: an all-college lecture or panel where the geography/environmental/sociology/geology departments participate with broad student involvement. I believe that such endeavors are worthwhile and can be models for further efforts to educate an unsuspecting audience. Artists can bridge the gap communicating to a public of art appreciators, nonscientists - how easy it is to understand geology and global warming. I believe we can even inspire attitudinal change. Aside from personal examples I will include other artists and exhibition venues contributing to this phenomenon.

  6. Organizational Linkages: Understanding the Productivity Paradox,

    Science.gov (United States)

    1994-01-01

    Research Project, Austin, Tex. WILLIAM C. HOWELL, APA Science Directorate, Washington, D.C. ROBERTA L. KLATZKY, Department of Psychology, Carnegie...nature of their relationships, the Productivity Servosystem model de- veloped by Hershauer and Ruch (1978) attempts to present a norma - tive model that

  7. Long-term increase in mesozooplankton biomass in the Sargasso Sea: Linkage to climate and implications for food web dynamics and biogeochemical cycling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinberg, Deborah K.; Lomas, Michael W.; Cope, Joseph S.

    2012-03-01

    Changes in zooplankton biomass and species composition over long time scales can have significant effects on biogeochemical cycling and transfer of energy to higher trophic levels. We analyzed size-fractionated mesozooplankton biomass (>200μm) from biweekly to monthly day and night tows taken from 1994 to 2010 in the epipelagic zone at the Bermuda Atlantic Time series Study (BATS) site in the oligotrophic North Atlantic subtropical gyre. During this 17-year period total mesozooplankton biomass increased 61% overall, although a few short-term downturns occurred over the course of the time series. The overall increase was higher in the nighttime compared to daytime, resulting in an increase in calculated diel vertical migrator biomass. The largest seasonal increase in total biomass was in the late-winter to spring (February-April). Associated with the larger increase in late-winter/spring biomass was a shift in the timing of annual peak biomass during the latter half of the time series (from March/April to a distinct March peak for all size fractions combined, and April to March for the 2-5 mm size fractions). Zooplankton biomass was positively correlated with sea-surface temperature, water column stratification, and primary production, and negatively correlated with mean temperature between 300 and 600 m. Significant correlations exist between multidecadal climate indices-the North Atlantic Oscillation plus three different Pacific Ocean climate indices, and BATS zooplankton biomass, indicating connections between patterns in climate forcing and ecosystem response. Resultant changes in biogeochemical cycling include an increase in the magnitude of both active carbon flux by diel vertical migration and passive carbon flux of fecal pellets as components of the export flux. The most likely mechanism driving the zooplankton biomass increase is bottom-up control by smaller phytoplankton, which has also increased in biomass and production at BATS, translating up the

  8. Climate Odyssey: Resources for Understanding Coastal Change through Art, Science, and Sail

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klos, P. Z.; Holtsnider, L.

    2017-12-01

    Climate Odyssey (climateodyssey.org) is a year-long sailing expedition and continuing collaboration aimed at using overlaps in science and visual art to communicate coastal climate change impacts and solutions. We, visual artist Lucy Holtsnider and climate scientist Zion Klos, are using our complimentary skills in art, science and communication to engage audiences both intuitively and cognitively regarding the urgency of climate change through story and visualization. Over the 2015 - 2016 academic year, we embarked on the sailing portion of Climate Odyssey, beginning in Lake Michigan, continuing along the Eastern Seaboard, and concluding in the tropics. Along the way we photographed climate change impacts and adaptation strategies, interviewed stakeholders, scientists, and artists. We are now sharing our photographs and documented encounters through a tangible artist's book, interactive digital map, blog, and series of K16 lesson plans. Each of our images added to the artist's book and digital map are linked to relevant blog entries and other external scientific resources, making the map both a piece of art and an engaging education tool for sharing the science of climate change impacts and solutions. After completing the sailing component of the project, we have now finalized our multi-media resources and are working to share these with the public via libraries, galleries, and K16 classrooms in coastal communities. At AGU, we will share with our peers the completed version of the series of K16 lesson plans that provide educators an easy-to-use way to introduce and utilize the material in the artist's book, digital map, and online blog. Through this, we hope to both discuss climate-focused education and engagement strategies, as well as showcase this example of art-science outreach with the broader science education and communication community that is focused on climate literacy in the U.S. and beyond.

  9. Forests under climate change and air pollution: Gaps in understanding and future directions for research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Matyssek, R.; Wieser, G.; Calfapietra, C.; Vries, de W.; Mohren, G.M.J.

    2012-01-01

    Forests in Europe face significant changes in climate, which in interaction with air quality changes, may significantly affect forest productivity, stand composition and carbon sequestration in both vegetation and soils. Identified knowledge gaps and research needs include: (i) interaction between

  10. Understanding smallholder farmers’ capacity to respond to climate change in a coastal community in Central Vietnam

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Phuong, Le Thi Hong; Biesbroek, G.R.; Sen, Le Thi Hoa; Wals, Arjen E.J.

    2017-01-01

    Climate change as expressed by erratic rainfall, increased flooding, extended droughts, frequency tropical cyclones or saline water intrusion, poses severe threats to smallholder farmers in Vietnam. Adaptation of the agricultural sector is vital to increase the resilience of smallholder farmers’

  11. Lightning Discharges, Cosmic Rays and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Sanjay; Siingh, Devendraa; Singh, R. P.; Singh, A. K.; Kamra, A. K.

    2018-03-01

    The entirety of the Earth's climate system is continuously bombarded by cosmic rays and exhibits about 2000 thunderstorms active at any time of the day all over the globe. Any linkage among these vast systems should have global consequences. Numerous studies done in the past deal with partial links between some selected aspects of this grand linkage. Results of these studies vary from weakly to strongly significant and are not yet complete enough to justify the physical mechanism proposed to explain such links. This review is aimed at presenting the current understanding, based on the past studies on the link between cosmic ray, lightning and climate. The deficiencies in some proposed links are pointed out. Impacts of cosmic rays on engineering systems and the possible effects of cosmic rays on human health are also briefly discussed. Also enumerated are some problems for future work which may help in developing the grand linkage among these three vast systems.

  12. Thermally actuated linkage arrangement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anderson, P.M.

    1981-01-01

    A reusable thermally actuated linkage arrangement includes a first link member having a longitudinal bore therein adapted to receive at least a portion of a second link member therein, the first and second members being sized to effect an interference fit preventing relative movement there-between at a temperature below a predetermined temperature. The link members have different coefficients of thermal expansion so that when the linkage is selectively heated by heating element to a temperature above the predetermined temperature, relative longitudinal and/or rotational movement between the first and second link members is enabled. Two embodiments of a thermally activated linkage are disclosed which find particular application in actuators for a grapple head positioning arm in a nuclear reactor fuel handling mechanism to facilitate back-up safety retraction of the grapple head independently from the primary fuel handling mechanism drive system. (author)

  13. An Australian Feeling for Snow: Towards Understanding Cultural and Emotional Dimensions of Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Gorman-Murray

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available In Australia, snow is associated with alpine and subalpine regions in rural areas; snow is a component of ‘natural’ rather than urban environments. But the range, depth and duration of Australia’s regional snow cover is imperilled by climate change. While researchers have considered the impacts of snow retreat on the natural environment and responses from the mainland ski industry, this paper explores associated cultural and emotional dimensions of climate change. This responds to calls to account for local meanings of climate, and thus localised perceptions of and responses to climate change. Accordingly, this paper presents a case study of reactions to the affect of climate change on Tasmania’s snow country. Data is drawn from a nationwide survey of responses to the impact of climate change on Australia’s snow country, and a Tasmanian focus group. Survey respondents suggested the uneven distribution of Australia’s snow country means snow cover loss may matter more in certain areas: Tasmania was a key example cited by residents of both that state and others. Focus group respondents affirmed a connection between snow and Tasmanian cultural identity, displaying sensitivity to recent changing snow patterns. Moreover, they expressed concerns about the changes using emotive descriptions of local examples: the loss of snow cover mattered culturally and emotionally, compromising local cultural activities and meanings, and invoking affective responses. Simultaneously, respondents were ‘realistic’ about how important snow loss was, especially juxtaposed with sea level rise. Nevertheless, the impact of climate change on cultural and emotional attachments can contribute to urgent ethical, practical and political arguments about arresting global warming.

  14. An Australian feeling for snow : towards understanding cultural and emotional dimensions of climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gorman-Murray, Andrew

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In Australia, snow is associated with alpine and subalpine regions in rural areas; snow is a component of ‘natural’ rather than urban environments. But the range, depth and duration of Australia’s regional snow cover is imperilled by climate change. While researchers have considered the impacts of snow retreat on the natural environment and responses from the mainland ski industry, this paper explores associated cultural and emotional dimensions of climate change. This responds to calls to account for local meanings of climate, and thus localised perceptions of and responses to climate change. Accordingly, this paper presents a case study of reactions to the affect of climate change on Tasmania’s snow country. Data is drawn from a nationwide survey of responses to the impact of climate change on Australia’s snow country, and a Tasmanian focus group. Survey respondents suggested the uneven distribution of Australia’s snow country means snow cover loss may matter more in certain areas: Tasmania was a key example cited by residents of both that state and others. Focus group respondents affirmed a connection between snow and Tasmanian cultural identity, displaying sensitivity to recent changing snow patterns. Moreover, they expressed concerns about the changes using emotive descriptions of local examples: the loss of snow cover mattered culturally and emotionally, compromising local cultural activities and meanings, and invoking affective responses. Simultaneously, respondents were ‘realistic’ about how important snow loss was, especially juxtaposed with sea level rise. Nevertheless, the impact of climate change on cultural and emotional attachments can contribute to urgent ethical, practical and political arguments about arresting global warming.

  15. Evaluating the effects of ideology on public understanding of climate change science: how to improve communication across ideological divides?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zia, Asim; Todd, Anne Marie

    2010-11-01

    While ideology can have a strong effect on citizen understanding of science, it is unclear how ideology interacts with other complicating factors, such as college education, which influence citizens' comprehension of information. We focus on public understanding of climate change science and test the hypotheses: [H1] as citizens' ideology shifts from liberal to conservative, concern for global warming decreases; [H2] citizens with college education and higher general science literacy tend to have higher concern for global warming; and [H3] college education does not increase global warming concern for conservative ideologues. We implemented a survey instrument in California's San Francisco Bay Area, and employed regression models to test the effects of ideology and other socio-demographic variables on citizen concern about global warming, terrorism, the economy, health care and poverty. We are able to confirm H1 and H3, but reject H2. Various strategies are discussed to improve the communication of climate change science across ideological divides.

  16. A New Trilogy to Understand the Relationship among Organizational Climate, Workplace Bullying and Employee Health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Imran Qureshi

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Organizational Climate is a driving force in the organization behavior which provides foundations to many physical and psychological phenomena to the employees. Bullying is one of the major under considered phenomenon, usually caused by the organizational climate. The objective of the study is to examine the relationship between organizational climates, workplace bullying and workers’ health in selected higher education institutes of Pakistan. A proportionate random sample of 20 Universities comprising of 10 from public sector and 10 from private sector was selected for the study. The model of workplace bullying, organizational climate and worker's health was estimated by Structural Equation Modeling using AMOS software. The study found a negative relationship between organizational climate and bullying on one hand, while on the other hand, an increased workplace bullying effects employees’ health negatively due to affected sleeping hours. Drug abuse was treated as a moderator between health and affected sleeping hours. The study suggested that organizations should control workplace bullying which may cause physical and psychological effects on employee's health.

  17. Working with South Florida County Planners to Understand and Mitigate Uncertain Climate Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knopman, D.; Groves, D. G.; Berg, N.

    2017-12-01

    This talk describes a novel approach for evaluating climate change vulnerabilities and adaptations in Southeast Florida to support long-term resilience planning. The work is unique in that it combines state-of-the-art hydrologic modeling with the region's long-term land use and transportation plans to better assess the future climate vulnerability and adaptations for the region. Addressing uncertainty in future projections is handled through the use of decisionmaking under deep uncertainty methods. Study findings, including analysis of key tradeoffs, were conveyed to the region's stakeholders through an innovative web-based decision support tool. This project leverages existing groundwater models spanning Miami-Dade and Broward Counties developed by the USGS, along with projections of land use and asset valuations for Miami-Dade and Broward County planning agencies. Model simulations are executed on virtual cloud-based servers for a highly scalable and parallelized platform. Groundwater elevations and the saltwater-freshwater interface and intrusion zones from the integrated modeling framework are analyzed under a wide range of long-term climate futures, including projected sea level rise and precipitation changes. The hydrologic hazards are then combined with current and future land use and asset valuation projections to estimate assets at risk across the range of futures. Lastly, an interactive decision support tool highlights the areas with critical climate vulnerabilities; distinguishes between vulnerability due to new development, increased climate hazards, or both; and provides guidance for adaptive management and development practices and decisionmaking in Southeast Florida.

  18. Understanding the Effectiveness of Carbon Dioxide Removal to Reduce the Impacts of Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, V.; Tett, S. F.; Brander, M.

    2017-12-01

    The current Nationally Determined Contributions to the Paris Agreement suggest exceeding the emissions budgets corresponding to the below 2°C and 1.5°C temperature targets. To address this the future application of Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) is proposed to recapture excess emissions at a later time, so keeping the total net emissions within budget. This assumes that the climate change impact of CO2 emitted now can be fully compensated by a matched CO2 removal in the future. However, the impacts from this pathway of emissions budget overshoot and subsequent recapture may differ from those resulting from a pathway where emissions are held within budget with no temporary overshoot. These pathway dependent impacts could give rise to different climatic and societal futures despite the total net emissions being the same. Using a low resolution fully coupled Earth System Model with an interactive carbon cycle, we present an investigation into the pathway dependence of climate change impacts and how these relate to the scale and duration of the emissions budget overshoot and subsequent recapture. From this we discuss the effectiveness of CDR in avoiding climate change impacts relative to more immediate emissions reductions. We consider how this relative effectiveness might be reflected in GHG accounting methods and national GHG accounts, and explore the implications for Article 2 of the Paris Agreement, where holding temperatures to the targets is recognised to "significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change".

  19. Linkages between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bretherton, Francis; Dickinson, Robert E.; Fung, Inez; Moore, Berrien, III; Prather, Michael; Running, Steven W.; Tiessen, Holm

    1992-01-01

    The primary research issue in understanding the role of terrestrial ecosystems in global change is analyzing the coupling between processes with vastly differing rates of change, from photosynthesis to community change. Representing this coupling in models is the central challenge to modeling the terrestrial biosphere as part of the earth system. Terrestrial ecosystems participate in climate and in the biogeochemical cycles on several temporal scales. Some of the carbon fixed by photosynthesis is incorporated into plant tissue and is delayed from returning to the atmosphere until it is oxidized by decomposition or fire. This slower (i.e., days to months) carbon loop through the terrestrial component of the carbon cycle, which is matched by cycles of nutrients required by plants and decomposers, affects the increasing trend in atmospheric CO2 concentration and imposes a seasonal cycle on that trend. Moreover, this cycle includes key controls over biogenic trace gas production. The structure of terrestrial ecosystems, which responds on even longer time scales (annual to century), is the integrated response to the biogeochemical and environmental constraints that develop over the intermediate time scale. The loop is closed back to the climate system since it is the structure of ecosystems, including species composition, that sets the terrestrial boundary condition in the climate system through modification of surface roughness, albedo, and, to a great extent, latent heat exchange. These separate temporal scales contain explicit feedback loops which may modify ecosystem dynamics and linkages between ecosystems and the atmosphere. The long-term change in climate, resulting from increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (e.g., CO2, CH4, and nitrous oxide (N2O)) will further modify the global environment and potentially induce further ecosystem change. Modeling these interactions requires coupling successional models to biogeochemical models to

  20. The understanding of world climate change; Les connaissances sur le changement climatique mondial

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Petit, M.

    2008-07-01

    After having recalled that the problem of global warming in relationship with human activities has been studied since the end of the nineteenth century and since then by different scientific programs, the author describes how the IPCC's or Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's report is produced. He briefly comments how Earth's temperature is determined and the various natural parameters which influence the climate on Earth. He recalls how the IPCC showed the actual influence of human activities, and which changes have actually been observed

  1. Polar Bears or People?: How Framing Can Provide a Useful Analytic Tool to Understand & Improve Climate Change Communication in Classrooms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busch, K. C.

    2014-12-01

    Not only will young adults bear the brunt of climate change's effects, they are also the ones who will be required to take action - to mitigate and to adapt. The Next Generation Science Standards include climate change, ensuring the topic will be covered in U.S. science classrooms in the near future. Additionally, school is a primary source of information about climate change for young adults. The larger question, though, is how can the teaching of climate change be done in such a way as to ascribe agency - a willingness to act - to students? Framing - as both a theory and an analytic method - has been used to understand how language in the media can affect the audience's intention to act. Frames function as a two-way filter, affecting both the message sent and the message received. This study adapted both the theory and the analytic methods of framing, applying them to teachers in the classroom to answer the research question: How do teachers frame climate change in the classroom? To answer this question, twenty-five lessons from seven teachers were analyzed using semiotic discourse analysis methods. It was found that the teachers' frames overlapped to form two distinct discourses: a Science Discourse and a Social Discourse. The Science Discourse, which was dominant, can be summarized as: Climate change is a current scientific problem that will have profound global effects on the Earth's physical systems. The Social Discourse, used much less often, can be summarized as: Climate change is a future social issue because it will have negative impacts at the local level on people. While it may not be surprising that the Science Discourse was most often heard in these science classrooms, it is possibly problematic if it were the only discourse used. The research literature on framing indicates that the frames found in the Science Discourse - global scale, scientific statistics and facts, and impact on the Earth's systems - are not likely to inspire action-taking. This

  2. Linkage between psychological contract and employee retention ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study examines the linkage between psychological contract and employees' retention, performance and productivity in organizations in Nigeria. It studies the interplay between psychological contract and the variables with a view to understanding their interactions and impacts in organizations. The methodology is ...

  3. Recent advances in understanding secondary organic aerosol: Implications for global climate forcing: Advances in Secondary Organic Aerosol

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shrivastava, Manish [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Cappa, Christopher D. [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Davis California USA; Fan, Jiwen [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Goldstein, Allen H. [Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Berkeley California USA; Guenther, Alex B. [Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine California USA; Jimenez, Jose L. [Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences and Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder Colorado USA; Kuang, Chongai [Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton New York USA; Laskin, Alexander [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Martin, Scot T. [School of Engineering and Applied Sciences and Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge Massachusetts USA; Ng, Nga Lee [School of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering and School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta Georgia USA; Petaja, Tuukka [Department of Physics, University of Helsinki, Helsinki Finland; Pierce, Jeffrey R. [Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins Colorado USA; Rasch, Philip J. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Roldin, Pontus [Department of Physics, Lund University, Lund Sweden; Seinfeld, John H. [Division of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena California USA; Shilling, John [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Smith, James N. [Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine California USA; Thornton, Joel A. [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle Washington USA; Volkamer, Rainer [Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences and Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder Colorado USA; Wang, Jian [Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton New York USA; Worsnop, Douglas R. [Aerodyne Research, Inc., Billerica Massachusetts USA; Zaveri, Rahul A. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Zelenyuk, Alla [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Zhang, Qi [Department of Environmental Toxicology, University of California, Davis California USA

    2017-06-01

    Anthropogenic emissions and land-use changes have modified atmospheric aerosol concentrations and size distributions over time. Understanding pre-industrial conditions and changes in organic aerosol due to anthropogenic activities is important because these features 1) influence estimates of aerosol radiative forcing and 2) can confound estimates of the historical response of climate to increases in greenhouse gases (e.g. the ‘climate sensitivity’). Secondary organic aerosol (SOA), formed in the atmosphere by oxidation of organic gases, represents a major fraction of global submicron-sized atmospheric organic aerosol. Over the past decade, significant advances in understanding SOA properties and formation mechanisms have occurred through a combination of laboratory and field measurements, yet current climate models typically do not comprehensively include all important SOA-relevant processes. Therefore, major gaps exist at present between current measurement-based knowledge on the one hand and model implementation of organic aerosols on the other. The critical review herein summarizes some of the important developments in understanding SOA formation that could potentially have large impacts on our understanding of aerosol radiative forcing and climate. We highlight the importance of some recently discovered processes and properties that influence the growth of SOA particles to sizes relevant for clouds and radiative forcing, including: formation of extremely low-volatility organics in the gas-phase; isoprene epoxydiols (IEPOX) multi-phase chemistry; particle-phase oligomerization; and physical properties such as viscosity. In addition, this review also highlights some of the important processes that involve interactions between natural biogenic emissions and anthropogenic emissions, such as the role of sulfate and oxides of nitrogen (NOx) on SOA formation from biogenic volatile organic compounds. Studies that relate the observed evolution of organic aerosol

  4. Understanding the science of climate change: Talking points - impacts to the Pacific Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amanda Schramm; Rachel Loehman

    2012-01-01

    The Pacific Coast is an area of incredible biodiversity and diverse landscapes that are subject to a range of effects as regional climates shift. Changes that have already been observed within this bioregion include warmer average temperatures, earlier runoff season, rising sea levels, coastal erosion, species migration, and a longer growing season. In the next century...

  5. Understanding the science of climate change: Talking points - Impacts to the Gulf Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rachel Loehman; Greer Anderson

    2010-01-01

    Predicted climate changes in the Gulf Coast bioregion include increased air and sea surface temperatures, altered fire regimes and rainfall patterns, increased frequency of extreme weather events, rising sea levels, increased hurricane intensity, and potential destruction of coastal wetlands and the species that reside within them. Prolonged drought conditions, storm...

  6. Landscape-based hydrological modelling : Understanding the influence of climate, topography, and vegetation on catchment hydrology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gao, H.

    2015-01-01

    In this thesis, a novel landscape-based hydrological model is presented that was developed and tested in numerous catchments around the world with various landscapes and climate conditions. A landscape is considered to consist of a topography and an ecosystem living on it. Firstly, the influence of

  7. Improving our fundamental understanding of the role of aerosol-cloud interactions in the climate system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seinfeld, John H; Bretherton, Christopher; Carslaw, Kenneth S; Coe, Hugh; DeMott, Paul J; Dunlea, Edward J; Feingold, Graham; Ghan, Steven; Guenther, Alex B; Kahn, Ralph; Kraucunas, Ian; Kreidenweis, Sonia M; Molina, Mario J; Nenes, Athanasios; Penner, Joyce E; Prather, Kimberly A; Ramanathan, V; Ramaswamy, Venkatachalam; Rasch, Philip J; Ravishankara, A R; Rosenfeld, Daniel; Stephens, Graeme; Wood, Robert

    2016-05-24

    The effect of an increase in atmospheric aerosol concentrations on the distribution and radiative properties of Earth's clouds is the most uncertain component of the overall global radiative forcing from preindustrial time. General circulation models (GCMs) are the tool for predicting future climate, but the treatment of aerosols, clouds, and aerosol-cloud radiative effects carries large uncertainties that directly affect GCM predictions, such as climate sensitivity. Predictions are hampered by the large range of scales of interaction between various components that need to be captured. Observation systems (remote sensing, in situ) are increasingly being used to constrain predictions, but significant challenges exist, to some extent because of the large range of scales and the fact that the various measuring systems tend to address different scales. Fine-scale models represent clouds, aerosols, and aerosol-cloud interactions with high fidelity but do not include interactions with the larger scale and are therefore limited from a climatic point of view. We suggest strategies for improving estimates of aerosol-cloud relationships in climate models, for new remote sensing and in situ measurements, and for quantifying and reducing model uncertainty.

  8. Improving Our Fundamental Understanding of the Role of Aerosol Cloud Interactions in the Climate System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seinfeld, John H.; Bretherton, Christopher; Carslaw, Kenneth S.; Coe, Hugh; DeMott, Paul J.; Dunlea, Edward J.; Feingold, Graham; Ghan, Steven; Guenther, Alex B.; Kahn, Ralph; hide

    2016-01-01

    The effect of an increase in atmospheric aerosol concentrations on the distribution and radiative properties of Earth's clouds is the most uncertain component of the overall global radiative forcing from preindustrial time. General circulation models (GCMs) are the tool for predicting future climate, but the treatment of aerosols, clouds, and aerosol-cloud radiative effects carries large uncertainties that directly affect GCM predictions, such as climate sensitivity. Predictions are hampered by the large range of scales of interaction between various components that need to be captured. Observation systems (remote sensing, in situ) are increasingly being used to constrain predictions, but significant challenges exist, to some extent because of the large range of scales and the fact that the various measuring systems tend to address different scales. Fine-scale models represent clouds, aerosols, and aerosol-cloud interactions with high fidelity but do not include interactions with the larger scale and are therefore limited from a climatic point of view. We suggest strategies for improving estimates of aerosol-cloud relationships in climate models, for new remote sensing and in situ measurements, and for quantifying and reducing model uncertainty.

  9. Improving our fundamental understanding of the role of aerosol−cloud interactions in the climate system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seinfeld, John H.; Bretherton, Christopher; Carslaw, Kenneth S.; Coe, Hugh; DeMott, Paul J.; Dunlea, Edward J.; Feingold, Graham; Ghan, Steven; Guenther, Alex B.; Kraucunas, Ian; Molina, Mario J.; Nenes, Athanasios; Penner, Joyce E.; Prather, Kimberly A.; Ramanathan, V.; Ramaswamy, Venkatachalam; Rasch, Philip J.; Ravishankara, A. R.; Rosenfeld, Daniel; Stephens, Graeme; Wood, Robert

    2016-01-01

    The effect of an increase in atmospheric aerosol concentrations on the distribution and radiative properties of Earth’s clouds is the most uncertain component of the overall global radiative forcing from preindustrial time. General circulation models (GCMs) are the tool for predicting future climate, but the treatment of aerosols, clouds, and aerosol−cloud radiative effects carries large uncertainties that directly affect GCM predictions, such as climate sensitivity. Predictions are hampered by the large range of scales of interaction between various components that need to be captured. Observation systems (remote sensing, in situ) are increasingly being used to constrain predictions, but significant challenges exist, to some extent because of the large range of scales and the fact that the various measuring systems tend to address different scales. Fine-scale models represent clouds, aerosols, and aerosol−cloud interactions with high fidelity but do not include interactions with the larger scale and are therefore limited from a climatic point of view. We suggest strategies for improving estimates of aerosol−cloud relationships in climate models, for new remote sensing and in situ measurements, and for quantifying and reducing model uncertainty. PMID:27222566

  10. Climate and Food Production: Understanding Vulnerability from Past Trends in Africa’s Sudan-Sahel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Genesis T. Yengoh

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Just how influential is rainfall on agricultural production in the Sudan-Sahel of Africa? And, is there evidence that support for small-scale farming can reduce the vulnerability of crop yields to rainfall in these sensitive agro-ecological zones? These questions are explored based on a case study from Cameroon’s Sudan-Sahel region. Climate data for 20 years and crop production data for six major food crops for the same years are used to find patterns of correlation over this time period. Results show a distinction of three periods of climatic influence of agriculture: one period before 1989, another between 1990 and 1999 and the last from 2000 to 2004. The analysis reveals that, while important in setting the enabling biophysical environment for food crop cultivation, the influence of rainfall in agriculture can be diluted by proactive policies that support food production. Proactive policies also reduce the impact of agriculturally relevant climatic shocks, such as droughts on food crop yields over the time-series. These findings emphasize the extent of vulnerability of food crop production to rainfall variations among small-holder farmers in these agro-ecological zones and reinforce the call for the proactive engagement of relevant institutions and support services in assisting the efforts of small-scale food producers in Africa’s Sudan-Sahel. The implications of climate variability on agriculture are discussed within the context of food security with particular reference to Africa’s Sudan-Sahel.

  11. Prospective Primary Teachers' Understanding of Climate Change, Greenhouse Effect, and Ozone Layer Depletion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papadimitriou, Vasiliki

    2004-01-01

    Climate change is one of the most serious global environmental problems and for that reason there has been lately a great interest in educating pupils, the future citizens, about it. Previous research has shown that pupils of all ages and teachers hold many misconceptions and misunderstandings concerning this issue. This paper reports on research…

  12. Understanding the Reach of Agricultural Impacts from Climate Extremes in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, A. C.

    2016-12-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to build a modeling framework capable of representing the complexities of agriculture, its dependence on climate, and the many elements of society that depend on food systems. AgMIP's 30+ activities explore the interconnected nature of climate, crop, livestock, economics, food security, and nutrition, using common protocols to systematically evaluate the components of agricultural assessment and allow multi-model, multi-scale, and multi-method analysis of intertwining changes in socioeconomic development, environmental change, and technological adaptation. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) with a particular focus on unforeseen consequences of development strategies, interactions between global and local systems, and the resilience of agricultural systems to extreme climate events. Climate extremes shock the agricultural system through local, direct impacts (e.g., droughts, heat waves, floods, severe storms) and also through teleconnections propagated through international trade. As the climate changes, the nature of climate extremes affecting agriculture is also likely to change, leading to shifting intensity, duration, frequency, and geographic extents of extremes. AgMIP researchers are developing new scenario methodologies to represent near-term extreme droughts in a probabilistic manner, field experiments that impose heat wave conditions on crops, increased resolution to differentiate sub-national drought impacts, new behavioral functions that mimic the response of market actors faced with production shortfalls, analysis of impacts from simultaneous failures of multiple breadbasket regions, and more detailed mapping of food and socioeconomic indicators into food security and nutrition metrics that describe the human impact in diverse populations. Agricultural models illustrate the challenges facing agriculture, allowing

  13. Understanding and Managing the Effects of Climate Change on Ecosystem Services in the Rocky Mountains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica E. Halofsky

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Public lands in the US Rocky Mountains provide critical ecosystem services, especially to rural communities that rely on these lands for fuel, food, water, and recreation. Climate change will likely affect the ability of these lands to provide ecosystem services. We describe 2 efforts to assess climate change vulnerabilities and develop adaptation options on federal lands in the Rocky Mountains. We specifically focus on aspects that affect community economic security and livelihood security, including water quality and quantity, timber, livestock grazing, and recreation. Headwaters of the Rocky Mountains serve as the primary source of water for large populations, and these headwaters are located primarily on public land. Thus, federal agencies will play a key role in helping to protect water quantity and quality by promoting watershed function and water conservation. Although increased temperatures and atmospheric concentration of CO2 have the potential to increase timber and forage production in the Rocky Mountains, those gains may be offset by wildfires, droughts, insect outbreaks, non-native species, and altered species composition. Our assessment identified ways in which federal land managers can help sustain forest and range productivity, primarily by increasing ecosystem resilience and minimizing current stressors, such as invasive species. Climate change will likely increase recreation participation. However, recreation managers will need more flexibility to adjust practices, provide recreation opportunities, and sustain economic benefits to communities. Federal agencies are now transitioning from the planning phase of climate change adaptation to implementation to ensure that ecosystem services will continue to be provided from federal lands in a changing climate.

  14. An Approach to Understanding Complex Socio-Economic Impacts and Responses to Climate Disruption in the Chesapeake Bay Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaefer, R. K.; Nix, M.; Ihde, A. G.; Paxton, L. J.; Weiss, M.; Simpkins, S.; Fountain, G. H.; APl GAIA Team

    2011-12-01

    In this paper we describe the application of a proven methodology for modeling the complex social and economic interactions of a system under stress to the regional issues that are tied to global climate disruption. Under the auspices of the GAIA project (http://gaia.jhuapl.edu), we have investigated simulating the complex interplay between climate, politics, society, industry, and the environment in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed and associated geographic areas of Maryland, Virginia, and Pennsylvania. This Chesapeake Bay simulation draws on interrelated geophysical and climate models to support decision-making analysis about the Bay. In addition to physical models, however, human activity is also incorporated via input and output calculations. For example, policy implications are modeled in relation to business activities surrounding fishing, farming, industry and manufacturing, land development, and tourism. This approach fosters collaboration among subject matter experts to advance a more complete understanding of the regional impacts of climate change. Simulated interactive competition, in which teams of experts are assigned conflicting objectives in a controlled environment, allow for subject exploration which avoids trivial solutions that neglect the possible responses of affected parties. Results include improved planning, the anticipation of areas of conflict or high risk, and the increased likelihood of developing mutually acceptable solutions.

  15. "I Feel Suffocated:" Understandings of Climate Change in an Inner City Heat Island.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singer, Merrill; Hasemann, Jose; Raynor, Abigail

    2016-01-01

    Global climate change is contributing to a range of adverse environmental and weather shifts, including more intense and more frequent heatwaves and an intensification of the urban heat island effect. These changes are known to produce a set of significant and differentially distributed health problems, with a particularly high burden among poor and marginalized populations. In this article, we report findings from a qualitative study of community knowledge, attitudes, health and other concerns, and behavioral responses regarding mounting urban temperatures and related environmental health issues among Latinos living in the city of Hartford, CT in northeast United States. Findings suggest the need for enhanced participation in knowledge dissemination and preparedness planning based on the coproduction of knowledge about climate change and community responses to it. The special role of anthropology in such efforts is highlighted.

  16. The climate-energy contribution. Understand it, and you will adopt it

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-10-01

    This publication explains why the climate-energy contribution has a crucial role in the protection of climate, how everybody should be concerned, and whether it's a constraint or an opportunity for a successful energy transition. It outlines that this contribution is an application of the 'polluter pays' principle, describes how this contribution can be efficient and fair (all energies and all sectors are concerned). It briefly describes how revenues can be redistributed and how to invest in energy transition. By referring to some European countries (UK, Ireland, Finland, Sweden, Denmark and Switzerland), it outlines that this contribution has already been implemented, and that it could be a tool for innovation and jobs. It indicates the impact of this contribution on households (costs for housing and for mobility, possible actions to reduce energy consumption in housing and in mobility practices)

  17. Ecosystem services and climate change: Understanding the differences and identifying opportunities for forest carbon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert L. Deal; Crystal Raymond; David L. Peterson; Cindy. Glick

    2010-01-01

    There are a number of misunderstandings about “ecosystem services” and “climate change” and these terms are often used incorrectly to describe different concepts. These concepts address different issues and objectives but have some important integrating themes relating to carbon and carbon sequestration. In this paper, we provide definitions and distinctions between...

  18. Low Frequency Climate Variability: Understanding the Rise and Fall of the Great Salt Lake

    OpenAIRE

    Mann, Michael E.; Lall, Upmanu; Saltzman, Barry

    1994-01-01

    Connections between the Great Salt Lake (GSL) volume (V) and large-scale climate variations are developed through an analysis of the time series of the month-to-month differences in V (change in V), local precipitation and streamflow, and gridded U.S. sea level pressure and global temperature data. We isolate decadal and secular mdoes of cliamte variability that are coherent with change in V variations. The decada...

  19. Understanding Mars meteorology using a "new generation" Mars Global Climate Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forget, F.; Madeleine, J.-B.; Millour, E.; Colaitis, A.; Spiga, A.; Montabone, L.; Chaufray, J.-Y.; Lefèvre, F.; Montmessin, F.; Määttänen, A.; Gonzalez-Galindo, F.; Lopez-Valverde, M.-A.

    2011-10-01

    For more than 20 years, several teams around the world have developed GCMs (Mars General Circulation Model or Mars Global Climate) to simulate the environment on Mars. The GCM developed at the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique in collaboration with several teams in Europe (LATMOS, France, University of Oxford, The Open University, the Instituto de Astrofisica de Andalucia), and with the support of ESA and CNES. is currently used for many kind of applications. It has become a "Mars System Model" which, for instance, includes the water cycle, the dust cycle, several photochemistry cycles, the release and transport of Radon, water isotopes cycles, a therrmosphere and a Ionosphere. It can also be used to explore Mars past climates. Moreover the outputs of the GCM are available to the community and to engineers through the Mars Climate Database, a tool available on a DVD-Rom and used by more than 150 teams around the world. For all these applications, it is more important than ever that the model accurately simulates the "fundamentals" of the Martian meteorology: pressure, temperature, winds. However, several recent studies have revealed that to simulate the details of Mars meteorology one must take into account several processes previously neglected like the radiative effect of water ice clouds, complex variations in the vertical distribution of dust including the formation of detached layers of dust, complex coupling in the CO2 cycle which control the pressure cycle and the temperatures at high latitude, etc.

  20. Toward an understanding of the Middle Pleistocene Transition as a structural change in climate stability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ditlevsen, Peter

    2016-04-01

    The Middle Pleistocene transition signifies a change approximately 1 Myr ago from a period with 40 kyr glacial cycles to a period of approximately 100 kyr cycles in response to the orbital forcing. This change from the "40 kyr world" to the "100 kyr world" is not reflected in noticeable changes in the forcing. To explain this we present a low order conceptual model for the oscillatory dynamics of the ice sheets in terms of a relaxation oscillator with multiple levels subject to the Milankovitch forcing. The model exhibits smooth transitions between three different climate states; an interglacial (i), a mild glacial (g) and a deep glacial (G) as proposed by Paillard (1998). The model suggests a dynamical explanation in terms of the structure of a slow manifold for the observed allowed and ``forbidden'' transitions between the three climate states. With the model, the pacing of the climate oscillations by the astronomical forcing is through the mechanism of phase-resetting of relaxation oscillations in which the internal phase of the oscillation is affected by the forcing.

  1. For a better understanding of adaptive capacity to climate change: a research framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Magnan, Alexandre

    2010-05-01

    It is generally accepted that there exists a systematic link between a low level of adaptive capacity and a low level of development, which thus implies that the poor inevitably have low adaptive capacities. We argue here that this viewpoint is biased because adaptation to climate change is not solely determined by economic and technological capacities. Many other characteristics of a community can play a major role in its ability to react to and anticipate climate changes (e.g. the territorial identity or the social relationships). From our point of view, this limited view of adaptive capacity is related to a relative immaturity of the science of adaptation, a discipline that analyses the processes and determinants of adaptive capacity. This can be explained by the fact that there are currently few existing frameworks for studying adaptive capacity. This paper consists in a proposal for a research framework which is based upon four main fields of investigation: (i) the influential factors of adaptive capacity and their interactions, (ii) the relevant spatial and temporal scales of adaptive capacity, (iii) the links between adaptive capacity, vulnerability and the level of development and (iv) the theoretical links between adaptation and sustainability. These four fields of research should bring new knowledge on adaptive capacity and feed a more general reflection on the adaptation pathways for dealing with climate change. (author)

  2. Understanding the Perception of Global Climate Change: Research into the Role of Media

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kundargi, R.; Gopal, S.; Tsay-Vogel, M.

    2016-12-01

    Here we present preliminary results for a novel study investigating the perception of climate change media, in relation to two pre-selected dimensions. We administer a questionnaire varying in two dimensions (spatial proximity and scientific literacy) to 155 mostly students in order to evaluate their emotional and cognitive reactions towards a series of video clips depicting the impacts of global climate change (GCC) events or the science behind global climate change. 19 videos were selected and vetted by experts for content and relevance to the subject matter. Our preliminary analysis indicate that the further away an event is perceived to be (spatial proximity) results in a lower uncertainty about the risks of GCC, lower self-efficacy to effect GCC, and lower personal responsibility to influence GCC. Furthermore, our results show that videos with a higher perceived background scientific knowledge requirement (scientific literacy) results in greater viewer engagement with the video. A full analysis and results of this study will be presented within the poster presentation.

  3. Climate change impacts on tree ranges: model intercomparison facilitates understanding and quantification of uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheaib, Alissar; Badeau, Vincent; Boe, Julien; Chuine, Isabelle; Delire, Christine; Dufrêne, Eric; François, Christophe; Gritti, Emmanuel S; Legay, Myriam; Pagé, Christian; Thuiller, Wilfried; Viovy, Nicolas; Leadley, Paul

    2012-06-01

    Model-based projections of shifts in tree species range due to climate change are becoming an important decision support tool for forest management. However, poorly evaluated sources of uncertainty require more scrutiny before relying heavily on models for decision-making. We evaluated uncertainty arising from differences in model formulations of tree response to climate change based on a rigorous intercomparison of projections of tree distributions in France. We compared eight models ranging from niche-based to process-based models. On average, models project large range contractions of temperate tree species in lowlands due to climate change. There was substantial disagreement between models for temperate broadleaf deciduous tree species, but differences in the capacity of models to account for rising CO(2) impacts explained much of the disagreement. There was good quantitative agreement among models concerning the range contractions for Scots pine. For the dominant Mediterranean tree species, Holm oak, all models foresee substantial range expansion. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

  4. A Collaborative Proposal: Simulating and Understanding Abrupt Climate-Ecosystem Changes During Holocene with NCAR-CCSM3.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhengyu Liu, Bette Otto-Bliesner

    2013-02-01

    We have made significant progress in our proposed work in the last 4 years (3 years plus 1 year of no cost extension). In anticipation of the next phase of study, we have spent time on the abrupt changes since the last glacial maximum. First, we have performed further model-data comparison based on our baseline TRACE-21 simulation and made important progress towards the understanding of several major climate transitions. Second, we have made a significant effort in processing the model output of TRACE-21 and have put this output on a website for access by the community. Third, we have completed many additional sensitivity experiments. In addition, we have organized synthesis workshops to facilitate and promote transient model-data comparison for the international community. Finally, we have identified new areas of interest for Holocene climate changes.

  5. The GLOBE Carbon Cycle Project: Using a systems approach to understand carbon and the Earth's climate system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silverberg, S. K.; Ollinger, S. V.; Martin, M. E.; Gengarelly, L. M.; Schloss, A. L.; Bourgeault, J. L.; Randolph, G.; Albrechtova, J.

    2009-12-01

    National Science Content Standards identify systems as an important unifying concept across the K-12 curriculum. While this standard exists, there is a recognized gap in the ability of students to use a systems thinking approach in their learning. In a similar vein, both popular media as well as some educational curricula move quickly through climate topics to carbon footprint analyses without ever addressing the nature of carbon or the carbon cycle. If students do not gain a concrete understanding of carbon’s role in climate and energy they will not be able to successfully tackle global problems and develop innovative solutions. By participating in the GLOBE Carbon Cycle project, students learn to use a systems thinking approach, while at the same time, gaining a foundation in the carbon cycle and it's relation to climate and energy. Here we present the GLOBE Carbon Cycle project and materials, which incorporate a diverse set of activities geared toward upper middle and high school students with a variety of learning styles. A global carbon cycle adventure story and game let students see the carbon cycle as a complete system, while introducing them to systems thinking concepts including reservoirs, fluxes and equilibrium. Classroom photosynthesis experiments and field measurements of schoolyard vegetation brings the global view to the local level. And the use of computer models at varying levels of complexity (effects on photosynthesis, biomass and carbon storage in global biomes, global carbon cycle) not only reinforces systems concepts and carbon content, but also introduces students to an important scientific tool necessary for understanding climate change.

  6. USGS global change science strategy: A framework for understanding and responding to climate and land-use change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkett, Virginia R.; Taylor, Ione L.; Belnap, Jayne; Cronin, Thomas M.; Dettinger, Michael D.; Frazier, Eldrich L.; Haines, John W.; Kirtland, David A.; Loveland, Thomas R.; Milly, Paul C.D.; O'Malley, Robin; Thompson, Robert S.

    2011-01-01

    This U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Global Change Science Strategy expands on the Climate Variability and Change science component of the USGS 2007 Science Strategy, “Facing Tomorrow’s Challenges: USGS Science in the Coming Decade” (U.S. Geological Survey, 2007). Here we embrace the broad definition of global change provided in the U.S. Global Change Research Act of 1990 (Public Law 101–606,104 Stat. 3096–3104)—“Changes in the global environment (including alterations in climate, land productivity, oceans or other water resources, atmospheric chemistry, and ecological systems) that may alter the capacity of the Earth to sustain life”—with a focus on climate and land-use change.There are three major characteristics of this science strategy. First, it addresses the science required to broadly inform global change policy, while emphasizing the needs of natural-resource managers and reflecting the role of the USGS as the science provider for the Department of the Interior and other resource-management agencies. Second, the strategy identifies core competencies, noting 10 critical capabilities and strengths the USGS uses to overcome key problem areas. We highlight those areas in which the USGS is a science leader, recognizing the strong partnerships and effective collaboration that are essential to address complex global environmental challenges. Third, it uses a query-based approach listing key research questions that need to be addressed to create an agenda for hypothesis-driven global change science organized under six strategic goals. Overall, the strategy starts from where we are, provides a vision for where we want to go, and then describes high-priority strategic actions, including outcomes, products, and partnerships that can get us there. Global change science is a well-defined research field with strong linkages to the ecosystems, water, energy and minerals, natural hazards, and environmental health components of the USGS Science Strategy

  7. Understanding north-western Mediterranean climate variability: a multi-proxy and multi-sequence approach based on wavelet analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azuara, Julien; Lebreton, Vincent; Jalali, Bassem; Sicre, Marie-Alexandrine; Sabatier, Pierre; Dezileau, Laurent; Peyron, Odile; Frigola, Jaime; Combourieu-Nebout, Nathalie

    2017-04-01

    Forcings and physical mechanisms underlying Holocene climate variability still remain poorly understood. Comparison of different paleoclimatic reconstructions using spectral analysis allows to investigate their common periodicities and helps to understand the causes of past climate changes. Wavelet analysis applied on several proxy time series from the Atlantic domain already revealed the first key-issues on the origin of Holocene climate variability. However the differences in duration, resolution and variance between the time-series are important issues for comparing paleoclimatic sequences in the frequency domain. This work compiles 7 paleoclimatic proxy records from 4 time-series from the north-western Mediterranean all ranging from 7000 to 1000 yrs cal BP: -pollen and clay mineral contents from the lagoonal sediment core PB06 recovered in southern France, -Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) derived from alkenones, concentration of terrestrial alkanes and their average chain length (ACL) from core KSGC-31_GolHo-1B recovered in the Gulf of Lion inner-shelf, - δ18O record from speleothems recovered in the Asiul Cave in north-western Spain, -grain size record from the deep basin sediment drift core MD99-2343 north of Minorca island. A comparison of their frequency content is proposed using wavelet analysis and cluster analysis of wavelet power spectra. Common cyclicities are assessed using cross-wavelet analysis. In addition, a new algorithm is used in order to propagate the age model errors within wavelet power spectra. Results are consistents with a non-stationnary Holocene climate variability. The Halstatt cycles (2000-2500 years) depicted in many proxies (ACL, errestrial alkanes and SSTs) demonstrate solar activity influence in the north-western Mediterranean climate. Cluster analysis shows that pollen and ACL proxies, both indicating changes in aridity, are clearly distinct from other proxies and share significant common periodicities around 1000 and 600 years

  8. Understanding global climate change: paleoclimate perspective from the world's highest mountains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Lonnie G

    2010-06-01

    Glaciers are among the world's best recorders of, and first responders to, natural and anthropogenic climate change and provide a time perspective for current climatic and environmental variations. Over the last 50 years such records have been recovered from the polar regions as well as low-latitude, high-elevation ice fields. Analyses of these ice cores and of the glaciers from which they have been drilled have yielded three lines of evidence for past and present abrupt climate change: (1) the temperature and precipitation histories recorded in the glaciers as revealed by the climate records extracted from the ice cores; (2) the accelerating loss of the glaciers themselves; and (3) the uncovering of ancient fauna and flora from the margins of the glaciers as a result of their recent melting, thus illustrating the significance of the current ice loss. The current melting of high-altitude, low-latitude ice fields is consistent with model predictions for a vertical amplification of temperature in the tropics. The ongoing rapid retreat of the world's mountain glaciers, as well as the margins of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, is not only contributing to global sea level rise, but also threatening fresh-water supplies in many of the most populous regions. More recently, strong evidence has appeared for the acceleration of the rate of ice loss in the tropics, which especially presents a clear and present danger to water supplies for at-risk populations in South America and Asia. The human response to this issue, however, is not so clear, for although the evidence from both data and models becomes more compelling, the rate of global CO2 emissions continues to accelerate. Climatologically, we are in unfamiliar territory, and the world's ice cover is responding dramatically. The loss of glaciers, which can be viewed as the world's water towers, threatens water resources that are essential for hydroelectric power, crop irrigation, municipal water supplies, and even

  9. Using Scaling to Understand, Model and Predict Global Scale Anthropogenic and Natural Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lovejoy, S.; del Rio Amador, L.

    2014-12-01

    The atmosphere is variable over twenty orders of magnitude in time (≈10-3 to 1017 s) and almost all of the variance is in the spectral "background" which we show can be divided into five scaling regimes: weather, macroweather, climate, macroclimate and megaclimate. We illustrate this with instrumental and paleo data. Based the signs of the fluctuation exponent H, we argue that while the weather is "what you get" (H>0: fluctuations increasing with scale), that it is macroweather (Hbackground as close to white noise and focuses on quasi-periodic variability assumes a spectrum that is in error by a factor of a quadrillion (≈ 1015). Using this scaling framework, we can quantify the natural variability, distinguish it from anthropogenic variability, test various statistical hypotheses and make stochastic climate forecasts. For example, we estimate the probability that the warming is simply a giant century long natural fluctuation is less than 1%, most likely less than 0.1% and estimate return periods for natural warming events of different strengths and durations, including the slow down ("pause") in the warming since 1998. The return period for the pause was found to be 20-50 years i.e. not very unusual; however it immediately follows a 6 year "pre-pause" warming event of almost the same magnitude with a similar return period (30 - 40 years). To improve on these unconditional estimates, we can use scaling models to exploit the long range memory of the climate process to make accurate stochastic forecasts of the climate including the pause. We illustrate stochastic forecasts on monthly and annual scale series of global and northern hemisphere surface temperatures. We obtain forecast skill nearly as high as the theoretical (scaling) predictability limits allow: for example, using hindcasts we find that at 10 year forecast horizons we can still explain ≈ 15% of the anomaly variance. These scaling hindcasts have comparable - or smaller - RMS errors than existing GCM

  10. Understanding the recent trend of haze pollution in eastern China: roles of climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H.-J. Wang

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the variation and trend of haze pollution in eastern China for winter of 1960–2012 were analyzed. With the overall increasing number of winter haze days in this period, the 5 decades were divided into three sub-periods based on the changes of winter haze days (WHD in central North China (30–40° N and eastern South China (south of 30° N for east of 109° E mainland China. Results show that WHD kept gradually increasing during 1960–1979, remained stable overall during 1980–1999, and increased fast during 2000–2012. The author identified the major climate forcing factors besides total energy consumption. Among all the possible climate factors, variability of the autumn Arctic sea ice extent, local precipitation and surface wind during winter is most influential to the haze pollution change. The joint effect of fast increase of total energy consumption, rapid decline of Arctic sea ice extent and reduced precipitation and surface winds intensified the haze pollution in central North China after 2000. There is a similar conclusion for haze pollution in eastern South China after 2000, with the precipitation effect being smaller and spatially inconsistent.

  11. Understanding Perceptions of Climate Change, Priorities, and Decision-Making among Municipalities in Lima, Peru to Better Inform Adaptation and Mitigation Planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siña, Mariella; Wood, Rachel C; Saldarriaga, Enrique; Lawler, Joshua; Zunt, Joseph; Garcia, Patricia; Cárcamo, César

    2016-01-01

    Climate change poses multiple risks to the population of Lima, the largest city and capital of Peru, located on the Pacific coast in a desert ecosystem. These risks include increased water scarcity, increased heat, and the introduction and emergence of vector-borne and other climate sensitive diseases. To respond to these threats, it is necessary for the government, at every level, to adopt more mitigation and adaptation strategies. Here, focus groups were conducted with representatives from five Lima municipalities to determine priorities, perception of climate change, and decision-making processes for implementing projects within each municipality. These factors can affect the ability and desire of a community to implement climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. The results show that climate change and other environmental factors are of relatively low priority, whereas public safety and water and sanitation services are of highest concern. Perhaps most importantly, climate change is not well understood among the municipalities. Participants had trouble distinguishing climate change from other environmental issues and did not fully understand its causes and effects. Greater understanding of what climate change is and why it is important is necessary for it to become a priority for the municipalities. Different aspects of increased climate change awareness seem to be connected to having experienced extreme weather events, whether related or not to climate change, and to higher socioeconomic status.

  12. Understanding climate's influence on the extinction of Oreopithecus (late Miocene, Tusco-Sardinian paleobioprovince, Italy).

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeMiguel, Daniel; Rook, Lorenzo

    2018-03-01

    Despite its long history of scientific study, the causes underlying the extinction of the insular hominoid Oreopithecus bambolii are still a matter of ongoing debate. While some authors consider intense tectonism and invading species the cause of its extinction ca. 6.7 Ma, others propose climatic change as the main contributing factor. We rely on long-term patterns of tooth wear and hypsodonty of the Baccinello and Fiume Santo herbivore-faunas to reconstruct changes in habitat prior to, during and after the extinction. While a mosaic of habitats was represented in Baccinello V1 (as shown by a record of browsers, mixed feeders and species engaged in grazing), more closed forests (higher proportion of browsers, shortage of mixed feeders and lack of grazers) characterised Baccinello V2. Finally, there was a partial loss of canopy cover and development of open-patches and low-abrasive grasses in Baccinello V3 (as denoted by new records of taxa involved in grazing)-although still dominated by a forested habitat (since browse was a component in all diets). Our results provide evidence for two perceptible shifts in climate, one between 8.1 and 7.1 Ma and other ca. 6.7 Ma, though this latter was not drastic enough to lead to intensive forest loss, substantially alter the local vegetation or affect Oreopithecus lifestyle-especially if considering the growing evidence of its versatile diet. Although the disappearance of Oreopithecus is complex, our data reject the hypothesis of environmental change as the main factor in the extinction of Oreopithecus and Maremma fauna. When our results are analysed together with other evidence, faunal interaction and predation by invading species from mainland Europe seems to be the most parsimonious explanation for this extinction event. This contrasts with European hominoid extinctions that were associated with major climatic shifts that led to environmental uniformity and restriction of the preferred habitats of Miocene apes. Copyright

  13. Large Rivers in the Anthropocene: Insights and tools for understanding climatic, land use, and reservoir influences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habersack, Helmut; Haspel, Daniel; Kondolf, Mathias

    2014-05-01

    Since the industrial revolution, human impacts on landscapes and river systems globally have intensified significantly. Humans nowadays artificially increase and decrease fluxes of water, sediment and nutrients on a scale far exceeding natural fluxes. Rivers integrate such changes occurring throughout their drainage basins, and thus can be considered as indicators of landscape processes and river basin "health" more broadly. This special issue brings together a set of papers that explore interactions of climate change and river processes, influences of land use changes, effects of reservoirs, as well as new approaches to sorting out the relative importance of these diverse influences on rivers and uncertainties in modeling future behavior. These papers contribute to a growing body of work demonstrating the fundamental differences between large rivers in the Anthropocene and rivers in prior time periods.

  14. Understanding environmental and climatic influences on regional differences and spatio-temporalscale issues of dengue fever transmission in Puerto Rico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serman, E. A.; Akanda, A. S. S.; Ginsberg, H. S.; Couret, J.

    2015-12-01

    Each year, there are an estimated 50-100 million cases of dengue fever worldwide, roughly 30 times the number of cases as 50 years ago, with some estimates even higher. Puerto Rico (PR) has experienced epidemic dengue activity since 1963, and the disease is currently endemic. Since 1990 there have been 4 large epidemics, the most recent in 2010 where there were nearly 27,000 cases reported, amounting to almost 1% of the island's total population. Because no vaccine is currently available, effective control is dependent on our ability to understand the complex relationship between environmental factors, mosquito vector ecology, and disease epidemiology. Dengue virus is transmitted primarily by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, as humans are the preferred host for Ae. aegypti. The purpose of our analysis is to assess temporal and spatial patterns of dengue transmission in PR and relate this to both climatic and anthropogenic factors. Unlike past studies, which have used San Juan to represent the island as a whole, our research will investigate regional dynamics in dengue transmission, as preliminary results have shown significant differences in population density, disease incidence, and environmental and climatic variables. Data from the Passive Dengue Surveillance System of CDC, meteorological observations from NCDC, and remote sensing data from USGS and NASA will be used together to identify relationships between climate, urbanization, and dengue incidence for PR at various spatial and temporal scales. Preliminary climatic factors considered include precipitation, temperature, humidity, and soil moisture. Finally, we will assess measures of urbanization such as land cover, land use, population density, and infrastructure that can make regional differences in dengue incidence each year. Results from this study could help create early warning systems for dengue surveillance in Puerto Rico, and develop techniques that can be applied to other areas of the world.

  15. Model-Based Knowing: How Do Students Ground Their Understanding About Climate Systems in Agent-Based Computer Models?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markauskaite, Lina; Kelly, Nick; Jacobson, Michael J.

    2017-12-01

    This paper gives a grounded cognition account of model-based learning of complex scientific knowledge related to socio-scientific issues, such as climate change. It draws on the results from a study of high school students learning about the carbon cycle through computational agent-based models and investigates two questions: First, how do students ground their understanding about the phenomenon when they learn and solve problems with computer models? Second, what are common sources of mistakes in students' reasoning with computer models? Results show that students ground their understanding in computer models in five ways: direct observation, straight abstraction, generalisation, conceptualisation, and extension. Students also incorporate into their reasoning their knowledge and experiences that extend beyond phenomena represented in the models, such as attitudes about unsustainable carbon emission rates, human agency, external events, and the nature of computational models. The most common difficulties of the students relate to seeing the modelled scientific phenomenon and connecting results from the observations with other experiences and understandings about the phenomenon in the outside world. An important contribution of this study is the constructed coding scheme for establishing different ways of grounding, which helps to understand some challenges that students encounter when they learn about complex phenomena with agent-based computer models.

  16. Information transfer and synchronization among the scales of climate variability: clues for understanding anomalies and extreme events?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palus, Milan

    2017-04-01

    Deeper understanding of complex dynamics of the Earth atmosphere and climate is inevitable for sustainable development, mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change and for prediction of and resilience against extreme events. Traditional (linear) approaches cannot explain or even detect nonlinear interactions of dynamical processes evolving on multiple spatial and temporal scales. Combination of nonlinear dynamics and information theory explains synchronization as a process of adjustment of information rates [1] and causal relations (à la Granger) as information transfer [2]. Information born in dynamical complexity or information transferred among systems on a way to synchronization might appear as an abstract quantity, however, information transfer is tied to a transfer of mass and energy, as demonstrated in a recent study using directed (causal) climate networks [2]. Recently, an information transfer across scales of atmospheric dynamics has been observed [3]. In particular, a climate oscillation with the period around 7-8 years has been identified as a factor influencing variability of surface air temperature (SAT) on shorter time scales. Its influence on the amplitude of the SAT annual cycle was estimated in the range 0.7-1.4 °C and the effect on the overall variability of the SAT anomalies (SATA) leads to the changes 1.5-1.7 °C in the annual SATA means. The strongest effect of the 7-8 year cycle was observed in the winter SATA means where it reaches 4-5 °C in central European station and reanalysis data [4]. In the dynamics of El Niño-Southern Oscillation, three principal time scales have been identified: the annual cycle (AC), the quasibiennial (QB) mode(s) and the low-frequency (LF) variability. An intricate causal network of information flows among these modes helps to understand the occurrence of extreme El Niño events, characterized by synchronization of the QB modes and AC, and modulation of the QB amplitude by the LF mode. The latter

  17. Understanding the Response of Photosynthetic Metabolism in Tropical Forests to Seasonal Climate Variations. Final Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dye, Dennis [U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA (United States); Ivanov, Valeriy [Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States); Saleska, Scott [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States); Huete, Alfredo [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States); Univ. of Technology, Sydney NSW (Australia)

    2017-03-31

    This U.S-Brazil collaboration for GOAmazon has investigated a deceptively simple question: what controls the response of photosynthesis in Amazon tropical forests to seasonal variations in climate? In the past this question has been difficult to answer with modern earth system process models. We hypothesized that observed dry season increases in photosynthetic capacity are controlled by the phenology of leaf flush and litter fall, from which the seasonal pattern of LAI emerges. Our results confirm this hypothesis (Wu et al., 2016). Synthesis of data collected throughout the 3-year project period continues through December 31, 2017 under no-cost extensions granted to the project teams at University of Michigan and University of Arizona (Award 2). The USGS component (Award 1) ceased on the final date of the project performance period, December 31, 2016. This report summarizes the overall activities and achievements of the project, and constitutes the final project report for the USGS component. The University of Michigan will submit a separate final report that includes additional results and deliverables achieved during the period of their and the University of Arizona’s no-cost extension, which will end on December 31, 2017.

  18. Recent Advances in Improvement of Forecast Skill and Understanding Climate Processes Using AIRS Version-5 Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susskind, Joel; Molnar, Gyula; Iredell, Lena; Rosenberg, Robert

    2012-01-01

    AIRS/AMSU is the state of the art infrared and microwave atmospheric sounding system flying aboard EOS Aqua. These observations, covering the period September 2002 until the present, have been analyzed using the AIRS Science Team Version-5 retrieval algorithm. AIRS is a high spectral resolution infrared grating spectrometer with spect,ral coverage from 650 per centimeter extending to 2660 per centimeter, with low noise and a spectral resolving power of 2400. A brief overview of the AIRS Version-5 retrieval procedure will be presented, including the AIRS channels used in different steps in the retrieval process. Many researchers have used these products to make significant advances in both climate and weather applications. Recent significant results of these experiments will be presented, including results showing that 1) assimilation of AIRS Quality Controlled temperature profiles into a General Circulation Model (GCM) significantly improves the ability to predict storm tracks of intense precipitation events; and 2) anomaly time-series of Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) computed using AIRS sounding products closely match those determined from the CERES instrument, and furthermore explain that the phenomenon that global and especially tropical mean OLR have been decreasing since September 2002 is a result of El Nino/La Nina oscillations during this period.

  19. Understanding the new US climate change strategy - The Waxman-Markey bill at a glance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marchal, V.; Galharret, S.

    2009-01-01

    The climate change agenda is one of the two top priorities of Obama's administration, along with the reform of the health system. On June 26, 2009, the House of Representatives passed, by a margin of 219 to 212, the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 (ACES), authored by Henry Waxman (from California) and Edward Markey (from Massachusetts). The bill is a comprehensive energy legislation that presents a cap and trade scheme regulating US Green House Gas (GHG) emissions, and a set of federal measures that aims at transforming the US traditional fossil fuel-based economy into a cleaner economy, based on renewable energy and low carbon alternatives. If passed by the Senate, the bill would intent to reduce US GHG emissions by 17% in 2020 and 80% in 2050 under 2005 levels, along with a 2 degrees / 450 ppm GHG concentration global objective. This brief provides an overview of the 1,428-page bill mechanisms and its implications at the national and international levels. It highlights the key uncertainties surrounding its institutional adoption and operational implementation. It also emphasizes its main differences with the European approach on cap and trade, the EU Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS), as well as examines its international implications on carbon markets and negotiations. (authors)

  20. Impacts of land cover and climate data selection on understanding terrestrial carbon dynamics and the CO2 airborne fraction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poulter, B.; Frank, D. C.; Hodson, E. L.; Zimmermann, N. E.

    2011-08-01

    Terrestrial and oceanic carbon cycle processes remove ~55 % of global carbon emissions, with the remaining 45 %, known as the "airborne fraction", accumulating in the atmosphere. The long-term dynamics of the component fluxes contributing to the airborne fraction are challenging to interpret, but important for informing fossil-fuel emission targets and for monitoring the trends of biospheric carbon fluxes. Climate and land-cover forcing data for terrestrial ecosystem models are a largely unexplored source of uncertainty in terms of their contribution to understanding airborne fraction dynamics. Here we present results using a single dynamic global vegetation model forced by an ensemble experiment of climate (CRU, ERA-Interim, NCEP-DOE II), and diagnostic land-cover datasets (GLC2000, GlobCover, MODIS). For the averaging period 1996-2005, forcing uncertainties resulted in a large range of simulated global carbon fluxes, up to 13 % for net primary production (52.4 to 60.2 Pg C a-1) and 19 % for soil respiration (44.2 to 54.8 Pg C a-1). The sensitivity of contemporary global terrestrial carbon fluxes to climate strongly depends on forcing data (1.2-5.9 Pg C K-1 or 0.5 to 2.7 ppmv CO2 K-1), but weakening carbon sinks in sub-tropical regions and strengthening carbon sinks in northern latitudes are found to be robust. The climate and land-cover combination that best correlate to the inferred carbon sink, and with the lowest residuals, is from observational data (CRU) rather than reanalysis climate data and with land-cover categories that have more stringent criteria for forest cover (MODIS). Since 1998, an increasing positive trend in residual error from bottom-up accounting of global sinks and sources (from 0.03 (1989-2005) to 0.23 Pg C a-1 (1998-2005)) suggests that either modeled drought sensitivity of carbon fluxes is too high, or that carbon emissions from net land-cover change is too large.

  1. Coastal and wetland ecosystems of the Chesapeake Bay watershed: Applying palynology to understand impacts of changing climate, sea level, and land use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willard, Debra A.; Bernhardt, Christopher E.; Hupp, Cliff R.; Newell, Wayne L.

    2015-01-01

    The mid-Atlantic region and Chesapeake Bay watershed have been influenced by fluctuations in climate and sea level since the Cretaceous, and human alteration of the landscape began ~12,000 years ago, with greatest impacts since colonial times. Efforts to devise sustainable management strategies that maximize ecosystem services are integrating data from a range of scientific disciplines to understand how ecosystems and habitats respond to different climatic and environmental stressors. Palynology has played an important role in improving understanding of the impact of changing climate, sea level, and land use on local and regional vegetation. Additionally, palynological analyses have provided biostratigraphic control for surficial mapping efforts and documented agricultural activities of both Native American populations and European colonists. This field trip focuses on sites where palynological analyses have supported efforts to understand the impacts of changing climate and land use on the Chesapeake Bay ecosystem.

  2. Design of special planar linkages

    CERN Document Server

    Zhao, Jing-Shan; Ma, Ning; Chu, Fulei

    2013-01-01

    Planar linkages play a very important role in mechanical engineering. As the simplest closed chain mechanisms, planar four-bar linkages are widely used in mechanical engineering, civil engineering and aerospace engineering.Design of Special Planar Linkages proposes a uniform design theory for planar four-bar linkages. The merit of the method proposed in this book is that it allows engineers to directly obtain accurate results when there are such solutions for the specified n precise positions; otherwise, the best approximate solutions will be found. This book discusses the kinematics and reach

  3. Understanding the Environmental and Climate Impacts of Biomass Burning in Northern Sub-Saharan Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ichoku, Charles; Gatebe, Charles; Bolten, John; Policelli, Fritz; Habib, Shahid; Lee, Jejung; Wang, Jun; Wilcox, Eric; Adegoke, Jimmy

    2011-01-01

    The northern sub-Saharan African (NSSA) region, bounded on the north and south by the Sahara and the Equator, respectively, and stretching from the West to the East African coastlines, has one of the highest biomass-burning rates per unit land area among all regions of the world. Because of the high concentration and frequency of fires in this region, with the associated abundance of heat release and gaseous and particulate smoke emissions, biomass-burning activity is believed to be one of the drivers of the regional carbon and energy cycles, with serious implications for the water cycle. A new interdisciplinary research effort sponsored by NASA is presently being focused on the NSSA region, to better understand the possible connection between the intense biomass burning observed from satellite year after year across the region and the rapid depletion of the regional water resources, as exemplified by the dramatic drying of Lake Chad. A combination of remote sensing and modeling approaches is being utilized in investigating multiple regional surface, atmospheric, and water-cycle processes, and inferring possible links between them. In this presentation, we will discuss preliminary results as well as the path toward improved understanding'of the interrelationships and feedbacks between the biomass burning and the environmental change dynamics in the NSSA region.

  4. Seasonal Sea Level Cycle Change: Understanding the Possible Climate Feedbacks Over the Gulf of Mexico and the Gulf Stream Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ricko, M.; Ray, R. D.; Beckley, B. D.

    2016-12-01

    Recent change in the seasonal sea level cycle has been observed in satellite radar altimetry record, especially over regions such as the Gulf of Mexico and the Gulf Stream region. Gridded satellite data is in a good agreement with ground tide gauge data that also confirm increased annual amplitude of sea level during most recent years. Data analysis is based on a set of tide gauges, satellite measurements and models. A consistent positive trend in the seasonal sea level cycle during recent years over different regions has been well confirmed (e.g., Wahl et al. 2014, Etcheverry et al. 2015). Over a longer timescale, historical tide gauge data give a neutral or slightly positive trend in the seasonal cycle of sea level along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico. This observed signal of increased seasonal sea level cycle in tide gauges over the coastal areas is extended with satellite observations to open ocean regions. It is most evident during last several years (2007-2015) over most of the Gulf of Mexico, especially over north-eastern and central parts of the Gulf of Mexico, and over the Gulf Stream region, showing mean annual amplitude larger than 15 cm. One part of this increase appears to be due to change in mean sea level pressure. However, main causes of seasonal sea level cycle change on interannual to climate scale have not yet been understood. To determine possible climate feedbacks responsible for observed change in the seasonal sea level cycle, its relationship with parameters such as sea surface temperature, wind curl, circulation, mesoscale eddies, etc., is investigated. Model-based results (e.g., NASA's GMAO model) give similar trend and feedbacks, but with a consistent bias and underestimation of annual amplitude increase. Understanding climate mechanisms responsible for observed seasonal sea level cycle change would offer better prediction of sea level variability on interannual to interdecadal time scales.

  5. A compilation of Western European terrestrial records 60-8 ka BP: towards an understanding of latitudinal climatic gradients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno, Ana; Svensson, Anders; Brooks, Stephen J.; Connor, Simon; Engels, Stefan; Fletcher, William; Genty, Dominique; Heiri, Oliver; Labuhn, Inga; Perşoiu, Aurel; Peyron, Odile; Sadori, Laura; Valero-Garcés, Blas; Wulf, Sabine; Zanchetta, Giovanni

    2014-12-01

    Terrestrial records of past climatic conditions, such as lake sediments and speleothems, provide data of great importance for understanding environmental changes. However, unlike marine and ice core records, terrestrial palaeodata are often not available in databases or in a format that is easily accessible to the non-specialist. As a consequence, many excellent terrestrial records are unknown to the broader palaeoclimate community and are not included in compilations, comparisons, or modelling exercises. Here we present a compilation of Western European terrestrial palaeo-records covering, entirely or partially, the 60-8-ka INTIMATE time period. The compilation contains 56 natural archives, including lake records, speleothems, ice cores, and terrestrial proxies in marine records. The compilation is limited to include records of high temporal resolution and/or records that provide climate proxies or quantitative reconstructions of environmental parameters, such as temperature or precipitation, and that are of relevance and interest to a broader community. We briefly review the different types of terrestrial archives, their respective proxies, their interpretation and their application for palaeoclimatic reconstructions. We also discuss the importance of independent chronologies and the issue of record synchronization. The aim of this exercise is to provide the wider palaeo-community with a consistent compilation of high-quality terrestrial records, to facilitate model-data comparisons, and to identify key areas of interest for future investigations. We use the compilation to investigate Western European latitudinal climate gradients during the deglacial period and, despite of poorly constrained chronologies for the older records, we summarize the main results obtained from NW and SW European terrestrial records before the LGM.

  6. A New Model Hierarchy to Understand the Impact of Radiation and Convection on the Extratropical Circulation Response to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Z.; Shaw, T.

    2017-12-01

    State-of-the-art climate models exhibit a large spread in the magnitude of projected poleward jet shift and Hadley cell expansion in response to warming. Interestingly, some idealized gray radiation models with simplified convective schemes produce an equatorward jet shift in response to warming. In order to understand the impact of radiation and convection on the circulation response and resolve the discrepancies across the model hierarchy, we introduce a new model radiation-convection hierarchy. The hierarchy spans idealized (gray) through sophisticated (RRTMG) radiation, and idealized (Betts-Miller) through sophisticated (eddy-diffusivity mass-flux scheme) convection schemes in the same general circulation model. It is used to systematically explore the impact of radiation and convection on the extratropical circulation response to climate change independent of mean surface temperature and meridional temperature gradient responses. With a gray radiation scheme, the jet stream shift depends on the prescribed stratospheric optical depth, which controls the climatological jet regime. A large optical depth leads to a split jet and an equatorward shift. A small optical depth leads to a poleward shift. The different shifts are connected to the vertical extent of tropical long wave cooling that impacts the subtropical jet and Hadley circulation. In spite of these sensitivities, the storm track position, defined by the meridonal eddy heat flux and moist static energy flux maxima, shifts robustly poleward. In contrast to gray radiation, with a comprehensive radiation scheme, the jet and storm track shift robustly poleward irrespective of radiative assumptions (clear sky versus cloudy sky, ozone versus no ozone). This response is reproduced by adding more spectral bands and including the water vapor feedback in the gray scheme. Dynamical sensitivities to convective assumption are also explored. Overall the new hierarchy highlights the importance of radiative and

  7. Examining Workplace Ostracism Experiences in Academia: Understanding How Differences in the Faculty Ranks Influence Inclusive Climates on Campus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carla A. Zimmerman

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Research on the retention of women in academia has focused on challenges, including a chilly climate, devaluation, and incivility. The unique consequences of workplace ostracism – being ignored and excluded by others in an organizational setting – require focus on this experience as another interpersonal challenge for women in academia. The purpose of this study is to examine differences in the faculty experiences and outcomes of workplace ostracism, and to determine if these experiences are affected significantly by the gender composition of an employee’s specific department. Participants were recruited at two time points to complete campus climate surveys that were distributed to faculty at a large, public, research university. We examined the number of reported ostracism experiences (Study 1 and perceived information sharing (Study 2 among male and female university faculty. The findings indicated that female faculty members perceived more workplace ostracism than male faculty members. Analyses of department gender ratios suggested that the proportion of women in the department did not reduce the amount of workplace ostracism experienced by women. No gender differences were found in perceived information sharing. However, we found that Faculty of Color, both men and women, reported more frequent information exclusion than White faculty. These results have important implications for theoretical and practical understandings of workplace demography and suggest that it is necessary to look at subtle, ambiguous forms of discrimination in order to increase retention of faculty from underrepresented groups in academia.

  8. Examining Workplace Ostracism Experiences in Academia: Understanding How Differences in the Faculty Ranks Influence Inclusive Climates on Campus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmerman, Carla A; Carter-Sowell, Adrienne R; Xu, Xiaohong

    2016-01-01

    Research on the retention of women in academia has focused on challenges, including a "chilly climate," devaluation, and incivility. The unique consequences of workplace ostracism - being ignored and excluded by others in an organizational setting - require focus on this experience as another interpersonal challenge for women in academia. The purpose of this study is to examine differences in the faculty experiences and outcomes of workplace ostracism, and to determine if these experiences are affected significantly by the gender composition of an employee's specific department. Participants were recruited at two time points to complete campus climate surveys that were distributed to faculty at a large, public, research university. We examined the number of reported ostracism experiences (Study 1) and perceived information sharing (Study 2) among male and female university faculty. The findings indicated that female faculty members perceived more workplace ostracism than male faculty members. Analyses of department gender ratios suggested that the proportion of women in the department did not reduce the amount of workplace ostracism experienced by women. No gender differences were found in perceived information sharing. However, we found that Faculty of Color, both men and women, reported more frequent information exclusion than White faculty. These results have important implications for theoretical and practical understandings of workplace demography and suggest that it is necessary to look at subtle, ambiguous forms of discrimination in order to increase retention of faculty from underrepresented groups in academia.

  9. Trade and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tamiotti, L.; Teh, R.; Kulacoglu, V. (World Trade Organization (WTO), Geneva (Switzerland)); Olhoff, A.; Simmons, B.; Abaza, H. (United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) (Denmark))

    2009-06-15

    The Report aims to improve understanding about the linkages between trade and climate change. It shows that trade intersects with climate change in a multitude of ways. For example, governments may introduce a variety of policies, such as regulatory measures and economic incentives, to address climate change. This complex web of measures may have an impact on international trade and the multilateral trading system. The Report begins with a summary of the current state of scientific knowledge on climate change and on the options available for responding to the challenge of climate change. The scientific review is followed by a part on the economic aspects of the link between trade and climate change, and these two parts set the context for the subsequent parts of the Report, which looks at the policies introduced at both the international and national level to address climate change. The part on international policy responses to climate change describes multilateral efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt to the effects of climate change, and also discusses the role of the current trade and environment negotiations in promoting trade in technologies that aim to mitigate climate change. The final part of the Report gives an overview of a range of national policies and measures that have been used in a number of countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to increase energy efficiency. It presents key features in the design and implementation of these policies, in order to draw a clearer picture of their overall effect and potential impact on environmental protection, sustainable development and trade. It also gives, where appropriate, an overview of the WTO rules that may be relevant to such measures. (author)

  10. North-South Business Linkages

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Olav Jull; Kuada, John

    2006-01-01

    TNC-driven markets in developing countries); (3) The upgrading impact of FDI; (4) Non-equity linkages as a platform for business development, and (5) The learning perspective on international business linakges. The chapter offers at the end a three-dimanional model for impacts of business linkages....

  11. A Formalization of Linkage Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ingolfsdottir, Anna; Christensen, A.I.; Hansen, Jens A.

    In this report a formalization of genetic linkage analysis is introduced. Linkage analysis is a computationally hard biomathematical method, which purpose is to locate genes on the human genome. It is rooted in the new area of bioinformatics and no formalization of the method has previously been ...

  12. An Integrated Approach for Understanding Anthropogenic and Climatic Impacts on Lakes: A Case study from Lake Iznik, Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derin, Y.; Milewski, A.; Fryar, A. E.; Schroeder, P.

    2013-12-01

    Lakes are among the most vital natural water resource, providing many environmental and economic advantages to a region. Unfortunately, many lakes are disappearing or continue to be polluted as industrial and agricultural practices increase to keep pace with rising populations. Lake Iznik, the biggest lake (approximately 300 km2) in the Marmara Region in Turkey, is a significant water resource as it provides opportunities for recreational activities, agriculture, industry, and water production for the region. However, rapid population growth combined with poor land management practices in this water basin has contributed to decreased water quality and water levels. As a result, Lake Iznik has switched from being Mesotrophic to Eutrophic in the past thirty years. This research aims to understand both the anthropogenic and climatic impacts on Lake Iznik. An integrated approach combining satellite remote sensing, hydrogeology, hydrologic modeling, and climatology was utilized to identify the source and timing responsible for the decline in water quality and quantity. Specifically, Landsat TM images from 1990, 2000, 2005, and 2010 were collected, processed, and analyzed for changes in landuse/landcover and surface area extent of Lake Iznik. Water level and water quality data (e.g. streamflow, lake level, pH, conductivity, total nitrogen, total dissolved solid etc.) collected from the General Directorate of State Hydraulic Works (DSI) from 1980-2012 were obtained from 4 stations and compared to the Landsat landuse mosaics. Meteorological data collected from Turkish State Meteorological Service from 1983-2012 were obtained from 3 stations (precipitation, temperature, atmospheric pressure, relative humidity, vapor pressure, wind speed and pan evaporation). A hydrologic model using MIKE21 was constructed to measure the change in streamflow and subsequent lake level as a result of changes in both land use and climate. Results have demonstrated the drop in water level from

  13. The USA National Phenology Network: A national science and monitoring program for understanding climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weltzin, J.

    2009-04-01

    Patterns of phenology for plants and animals control ecosystem processes, determine land surface properties, control biosphere-atmosphere interactions, and affect food production, health, conservation, and recreation. Although phenological data and models have applications related to scientific research, education and outreach, agriculture, tourism and recreation, human health, and natural resource conservation and management, until recently there was no coordinated effort to understand phenology at the national scale in the United States. The USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN; www.usanpn.org), established in 2007, is an emerging and exciting partnership between federal agencies, the academic community, and the general public to establish a national science and monitoring initiative focused on phenology. The first year of operation of USA-NPN produced many new phenology products and venues for phenology research and citizen involvement. Products include a new web-site (www.usanpn.org) that went live in June 2008; the web-site includes a tool for on-line data entry, and serves as a clearinghouse for products and information to facilitate research and communication related to phenology. The new core Plant Phenology Program includes profiles for 200 vetted local, regional, and national plant species with descriptions and (BBCH-consistent) monitoring protocols, as well as templates for addition of new species. A partnership program describes how other monitoring networks can engage with USA-NPN to collect, manage or disseminate phenological information for science, health, education, management or predictive service applications. Project BudBurst, a USA-NPN field campaign for citizen scientists, went live in February 2008, and now includes over 3000 registered observers monitoring 4000 plants across the nation. For 2009 and beyond, we will initiate a new Wildlife Phenology Program, create an on-line clearing-house for phenology education and outreach, strengthen

  14. Understanding the influence of topography on the dynamics of the North American monsoon in climate model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varuolo-Clarke, A. M.; Medeiros, B.; Reed, K. A.

    2017-12-01

    This project examines the influence of topography on the dynamics of the North American monsoon (NAM), including the genesis, peak, and demise of the monsoon. The monsoon season occurs from July to September in the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico and is characterized by an increase in rainfall that accounts for 40-80% of the total annual rainfall. We use a simple "monsoon index" and show that simulations with the Community Atmosphere model capture the essential nature of the NAM. Comparing standard low-resolution (1o latitude x 1o longitude) simulations where the topography over North America is either retained or removed we evaluate the models' representations of the NAM. To understand the origin of differences between the simulations we analyze the moist static energy budget in the monsoon region. Our preliminary results from simulations with realistic topography indicate that the simulated NAM is driven by locally-generated convection, with advection processes being secondary; this is consistent with the NAM being a result of the thermal contrast between the hot, summertime continent and relatively cool ocean. When topography is removed the simulated NAM will be relatively weak and be driven primarily by locally-generated convection. A better understanding of the monsoon dynamics and the impact topography has on these dynamics will allow for a more accurate representation of the monsoon in projections of future climate.

  15. Understanding Social Media’s Take on Climate Change through Large-Scale Analysis of Targeted Opinions and Emotions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pathak, Neetu; Henry, Michael J.; Volkova, Svitlana

    2017-03-29

    Social media is a powerful data source for researchers interested in understanding population-level behavior, having been successfully leveraged in a number of different application areas including flu and illness prediction models, detecting civil unrest, and measuring public sentiment towards a given topic of interest within the public discourse. In this work, we present a study of a large collection of Twitter data centered on the social conversation around global cli- mate change during the UN Climate Change Conference, held in Paris, France during December 2015 (COP21). We first developed a mechanism for distinguishing between personal and non-personal accounts. We then analyzed demographics and emotion and opinion dynamics over time and location in order to understand how the different user types converse around meaningful topics on social media. This methodology offers an in-depth insight into the behavior and opinions around a topic where multiple distinct narratives are present, and lays the groundwork for future work in studying narratives in social media.

  16. The Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP) Program at NOAA - Observing and Understanding Processes Affecting the Propagation of Intraseasonal Oscillations in the Maritime Continent Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucas, S. E.

    2017-12-01

    The Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP) Program supports research aimed at providing process-level understanding of the climate system through observation, modeling, analysis, and field studies. This vital knowledge is needed to improve climate models and predictions so that scientists can better anticipate the impacts of future climate variability and change. To achieve its mission, the CVP Program supports research carried out at NOAA and other federal laboratories, NOAA Cooperative Institutes, and academic institutions. The Program also coordinates its sponsored projects with major national and international scientific bodies including the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), the International and U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR/US CLIVAR) Program, and the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The CVP program sits within NOAA's Climate Program Office (http://cpo.noaa.gov/CVP). In 2017, the CVP Program had a call for proposals focused on observing and understanding processes affecting the propagation of intraseasonal oscillations in the Maritime Continent region. This poster will present the recently funded CVP projects, the expected scientific outcomes, the geographic areas of their work in the Maritime Continent region, and the collaborations with the Office of Naval Research, Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) and other partners.

  17. A wireless partially glaciated watershed in a virtual globe: Integrating data, models, and visualization to increase climate change understanding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, J.; Hood, E.; Fatland, D. R.; Berner, L.; Heavner, M.; Connor, C.; O'Brien, W.

    2008-12-01

    SEAMONSTER, a NASA funded sensor web project, is the SouthEast Alaska MOnitoring Network for Science, Telecommunications, Education and Research. SEAMONSTER is operating in the partially glaciated Mendenhall and Lemon Creek Watersheds, in the Juneau area, on the margins of the Juneau Icefield. These watersheds are studied for both 1. long term monitoring of changes, and 2. detection and analysis of transient events (such as glacier lake outburst floods). The diverse sensors (meteorological, dual frequency GPS, water quality, lake level, etc), power and bandwidth constraints, and competing time scales of interest require autonomous reactivity of the sensor web. The sensors are deployed throughout two partially glaciated watersheds and facilitated data acquisition in temperate rain forest, alpine, lacustrine, and glacial environments. Understanding these environments is important for public understanding of climate change. These environments are geographically isolated, limiting public access to, and understanding of, such locales. In an effort to inform the general public and primary educators about the basic processes occurring in these unique natural systems, we have developed an interactive website. This web portal supplements and enhances environmental science primary education by providing educators and students with interactive access to basic information from the glaciological, hydrological, and meteorological systems we are studying. In addition, we have developed an interactive virtual tour of the Lemon Glacier and its watershed. The focus of this presentation is using the data gathered by the SEAMONSTER sensor web, coupled with a temperature-indexed glacial melt model, to educate students and the public on topics ranging from modeling responses due to environmental changes to glacial hydrology. The interactive SEAMONSTER web site is the primary source for visualizing the data, while Google Earth can be used to visualize the isolated Lemon Creek watershed

  18. “Globalizing the science classroom" : Exploring the development of students’ conceptual understanding of climate change from international peer collaboration

    OpenAIRE

    Korsager, Majken

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is not local, it is global. This means that many environmental issues related to climate change are not geographically limited and hence concern humans in more than one location. There is a growing body of research indicating that today’s increased climate change is caused by human activities and our modern lifestyle. Consequently, climate change awareness and attention from the entire world’s population needs to be a global priority and we need to work collaboratively to attai...

  19. Water quality and coral bleaching thresholds: formalising the linkage for the inshore reefs of the Great Barrier Reef, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wooldridge, Scott A

    2009-05-01

    The threats of wide-scale coral bleaching and reef demise associated with anthropogenic climate change are widely known. Here, the additional role of poor water quality in lowering the thermal tolerance (i.e. bleaching 'resistance') of symbiotic reef corals is considered. In particular, a quantitative linkage is established between terrestrially-sourced dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) loading and the upper thermal bleaching thresholds of inshore reefs on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Significantly, this biophysical linkage provides concrete evidence for the oft-expressed belief that improved coral reef management will increase the regional-scale survival prospects of corals reefs to global climate change. Indeed, for inshore reef areas with a high runoff exposure risk, it is shown that the potential benefit of this 'local' management imperative is equivalent to approximately 2.0-2.5 degrees C in relation to the upper thermal bleaching limit; though in this case, a potentially cost-prohibitive reduction in end-of-river DIN of >50-80% would be required. An integrated socio-economic modelling framework is outlined that will assist future efforts to understand (optimise) the alternate tradeoffs that the water quality/coral bleaching linkage presents.

  20. Linkage mechanisms in the vertebrate skull: Structure and function of three-dimensional, parallel transmission systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsen, Aaron M; Westneat, Mark W

    2016-12-01

    Many musculoskeletal systems, including the skulls of birds, fishes, and some lizards consist of interconnected chains of mobile skeletal elements, analogous to linkage mechanisms used in engineering. Biomechanical studies have applied linkage models to a diversity of musculoskeletal systems, with previous applications primarily focusing on two-dimensional linkage geometries, bilaterally symmetrical pairs of planar linkages, or single four-bar linkages. Here, we present new, three-dimensional (3D), parallel linkage models of the skulls of birds and fishes and use these models (available as free kinematic simulation software), to investigate structure-function relationships in these systems. This new computational framework provides an accessible and integrated workflow for exploring the evolution of structure and function in complex musculoskeletal systems. Linkage simulations show that kinematic transmission, although a suitable functional metric for linkages with single rotating input and output links, can give misleading results when applied to linkages with substantial translational components or multiple output links. To take into account both linear and rotational displacement we define force mechanical advantage for a linkage (analogous to lever mechanical advantage) and apply this metric to measure transmission efficiency in the bird cranial mechanism. For linkages with multiple, expanding output points we propose a new functional metric, expansion advantage, to measure expansion amplification and apply this metric to the buccal expansion mechanism in fishes. Using the bird cranial linkage model, we quantify the inaccuracies that result from simplifying a 3D geometry into two dimensions. We also show that by combining single-chain linkages into parallel linkages, more links can be simulated while decreasing or maintaining the same number of input parameters. This generalized framework for linkage simulation and analysis can accommodate linkages of differing

  1. Sources of global climate data and visualization portals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglas, David C.

    2014-01-01

    Climate is integral to the geophysical foundation upon which ecosystems are structured. Knowledge about mechanistic linkages between the geophysical and biological environments is essential for understanding how global warming may reshape contemporary ecosystems and ecosystem services. Numerous global data sources spanning several decades are available that document key geophysical metrics such as temperature and precipitation, and metrics of primary biological production such as vegetation phenology and ocean phytoplankton. This paper provides an internet directory to portals for visualizing or servers for downloading many of the more commonly used global datasets, as well as a description of how to write simple computer code to efficiently retrieve these data. The data are broadly useful for quantifying relationships between climate, habitat availability, and lower-trophic-level habitat quality - especially in Arctic regions where strong seasonality is accompanied by intrinsically high year-to-year variability. If defensible linkages between the geophysical (climate) and the biological environment can be established, general circulation model (GCM) projections of future climate conditions can be used to infer future biological responses. Robustness of this approach is, however, complicated by the number of direct, indirect, or interacting linkages involved. For example, response of a predator species to climate change will be influenced by the responses of its prey and competitors, and so forth throughout a trophic web. The complexities of ecological systems warrant sensible and parsimonious approaches for assessing and establishing the role of natural climate variability in order to substantiate inferences about the potential effects of global warming.

  2. Collaborative Research: Towards Advanced Understanding and Predictive Capability of Climate Change in the Arctic using a High-Resolution Regional Arctic Climate System Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lettenmaier, Dennis P

    2013-04-08

    Primary activities are reported in these areas: climate system component studies via one-way coupling experiments; development of the Regional Arctic Climate System Model (RACM); and physical feedback studies focusing on changes in Arctic sea ice using the fully coupled model.

  3. From Enclave to Linkage Economies?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Michael W.

    If African developing countries are to benefit fully from the current boom in foreign direct investment (FDI) in extractives (i.e. mining and oil/gas), it is essential that the foreign investors foster linkages to the local economy. Traditionally, extractive FDI in Africa has been seen as the enc......If African developing countries are to benefit fully from the current boom in foreign direct investment (FDI) in extractives (i.e. mining and oil/gas), it is essential that the foreign investors foster linkages to the local economy. Traditionally, extractive FDI in Africa has been seen...... as the enclave economy par excellence, moving in with fully integrated value chains, extracting resources and exporting them as commodities having virtually no linkages to the local economy. However, new opportunities for promoting linkages are offered by changing business strategies of local African enterprises...

  4. General Chemistry Students' Understanding of the Chemistry Underlying Climate Science and the Development of a Two-Tiered Multiple-Choice Diagnostic Instrument

    Science.gov (United States)

    Versprille, A.; Towns, M.; Mahaffy, P.; Martin, B.; McKenzie, L.; Kirchhoff, M.

    2013-12-01

    As part of the NSF funded Visualizing the Chemistry of Climate Change (VC3) project, we have developed a chemistry of climate science diagnostic instrument for use in general chemistry courses based on twenty-four student interviews. We have based our interview protocol on misconceptions identified in the research literature and the essential principles of climate change outlined in the CCSP document that pertain to chemistry (CCSP, 2009). The undergraduate student interviews elicited their understanding of the greenhouse effect, global warming, climate change, greenhouse gases, climate, and weather, and the findings from these interviews informed and guided the development of the multiple-choice diagnostic instrument. Our analysis and findings from the interviews indicate that students seem to confuse the greenhouse effect, global warming, and the ozone layer and in terms of chemistry concepts, the students lack a particulate level understanding of greenhouse gases causing them to not fully conceptualize the greenhouse effect and climate change. Details of the findings from the interviews, development of diagnostic instrument, and preliminary findings from the full implementation of the diagnostic instrument will be shared.

  5. Using annually-resolved bivalve records and biogeochemical models to understand and predict climate impacts in coastal oceans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes, Sarah

    2017-04-01

    It is more important than ever to study the oceans and especially the shelf seas, which are disproportionately productive, sustaining over 90% of global fisheries . The economic and societal significance of these shallow oceans, as the interface through which society interacts with the marine environment, makes them highly relevant to the decisions of policy-makers and stakeholders. These decision-makers rely upon empirical data informed by consistent and extensive monitoring and assessment from experts in the field, yet long-term, spatially-extensive datasets of the marine environment do not exist or are of poor quality. Modelling the shelf seas with biogeochemical models can provide valuable data, allowing scientists to look at both past and future scenarios to estimate ecosystem response to change. In particular, the European Regional Sea Ecosystem Model or ERSEM combines not only the complex hydrographical aspects of the North West European shelf, but also vast numbers of biological and chemical parameters. Though huge efforts across the modelling community are invested into developing and ultimately increasing the reliability of models such as the ERSEM, this is typically achieved by looking at relationships with aforementioned observed datasets, restricting model accuracy and our understanding of ecosystem processes. It is for this reason that proxy data of the marine environment is so valuable. Of all marine proxies available, sclerochronology, the study of the growth bands on long-lived marine molluscs, is the only proven to provide novel, high resolution, multi-centennial, annually-resolved, absolutely-dated archives of past ocean environment, analogous to dendrochronology. For the first time, this PhD project will combine the proxy data of sclerochronology with model hindcast data from the ERSEM with the aim to better understand the North West European shelf sea environment and potentially improve predictions of future climate change in this region and

  6. Understanding mechanisms of rarity in pteridophytes: competition and climate change threaten the rare fern Asplenium scolopendrium var. americanum (Aspleniaceae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Testo, Weston L; Watkins, James E

    2013-11-01

    Understanding the ecology of rare species can inform aspects of conservation strategies; however, the mechanisms of rarity remain elusive for most pteridophytes, which possess independent and ecologically distinct gametophyte and sporophyte generations. To elucidate factors contributing to recent declines of the rare fern Asplenium scolopendrium var. americanum, we studied the ecology and ecophysiology of its gametophyte generation, focusing on responses to competition, temperature, and water stress. Gametophytes of A. scolopendrium var. americanum, its widespread European relative A. scolopendrium var. scolopendrium, and five co-occurring fern species were grown from spores. Gametophytes were grown at 20°C and 25°C, and germination rates, intra- and interspecific competition, desiccation tolerance, and sporophyte production were determined for all species. Gametophytes of A. scolopendrium var. americanum had the lowest rates of germination and sporophyte production among all species studied and exhibited the greatest sensitivity to interspecific competition, temperature increases, and desiccation. Mature gametophytes of A. scolopendrium var. americanum grown at 25°C were 84.6% smaller than those grown at 20°C, and only 1.5% produced sporophytes after 200 d in culture. Similar responses were not observed in other species studied. The recent declines and current status of populations of A. scolopendrium var. americanum are linked to its gametophyte's limited capacity to tolerate competition and physiological stress linked to climate change. This is the first study to develop a mechanistic understanding of rarity and decline in a fern and demonstrates the importance of considering the ecology of the gametophyte in plants with independent sporophyte and gametophyte generations.

  7. Understanding Climate Policy Data Needs. NASA Carbon Monitoring System Briefing: Characterizing Flux Uncertainty, Washington D.C., 11 January 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Molly E.; Macauley, Molly

    2012-01-01

    inverse approach based on the CO2 model of GEOS ]Chem. The forward model ensembles will be used to build understanding of relationships among surface flux perturbations, transport uncertainty and atmospheric carbon concentration. This will help construct uncertainty estimates and information on the true spatial resolution of the top-down flux calculations. The relationship between the top-down and bottom-up flux distributions will be documented. Because the goal of NASA CMS is to be policy relevant, the scientists involved in the flux modeling pilot need to understand and be focused on the needs of the climate policy and decision making community. If policy makers are to use CMS products, they must be aware of the modeling effort and begin to design policies that can be evaluated with information. Improving estimates of carbon sequestered in forests, for example, will require information on the spatial variability of forest biomass that is far more explicit than is presently possible using only ground observations. Carbon mitigation policies being implemented by cities around the United States could be designed with the CMS data in mind, enabling sequential evaluation and subsequent improvements in incentives, structures and programs. The success of climate mitigation programs being implemented in the United States today will hang on the depth of the relationship between scientists and their policy and decision making counterparts. Ensuring that there is two-way communication between data providers and users is important for the success both of the policies and the scientific products meant to support them..

  8. Observational research study around tropical Western Pacific: PALAU (Pacific Area Long-term Atmospheric observation for Understanding climate change) project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shirooka, Ryuichi

    2017-04-01

    The warm water pool region in the tropical Western Pacific is a key area for global climate systems, as strong atmospheric convective activity in this area is the driving engine of the atmosphere. However, there are many processes between meso-scale convective activities and the global-scale climate, and these are not fully understood yet. To understand the mechanism of clouds-precipitation processes and air-sea interactions over the warm pool in the tropics, there are in need of further investigation on the Western Pacific monsoon and the tropical-extratropical interactions. Toward these objectives, we have continued a long-term observational project named PALAU (Pacific Area Long-term Atmospheric observation for Understanding climate change) around the tropical Western Pacific near the Republic of Palau. The main target of this project is to describe multi-scale interactions of cloud systems to intra-seasonal oscillations affected by monsoon activities. To elucidate the structure of tropical cyclones, which occur over a monsoon trough near Palau, is also a major interest. Since November 2000, we have been continuously operating a surface weather observation site in Palau. We also have conducted several intensive field campaigns targeted for various phenomena. PALAU2013, one of the intensive campaign, was carried out to focus on the formation mechanism of tropical cyclones and their relation to intra-seasonal oscillations and monsoon activity over the tropical Western Pacific. During the campaign, R/V Mirai was placed near Palau and conducted atmospheric and oceanic observations using Doppler radar, radiosonde, CTD and so on. Daily profiling Argo-floats were deployed for analyzing air-sea interactions. To capture the monsoon activity with wide area, we constructed intensified sounding network from Philippines, Palau, and Yap to Guam. Three X-band radars were utilized to obtain the internal structure of cloud systems. Dual-polarization parameters also can be

  9. Limited resources and evolutionary learning may help to understand the mistimed reproduction in birds caused by climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campos, Daniel; Llebot, Josep E; Méndez, Vicenç

    2008-08-01

    We present an agent-based model inspired by the Evolutionary Minority Game (EMG), albeit strongly adapted, to the case of competition for limited resources in ecology. The agents in this game become able, after some time, to predict the a priori best option as a result of an evolution-driven learning process. We show that a self-segregated social structure can emerge from this process, i.e., extreme learning strategies are always favoured while intermediate learning strategies tend to die out. This result may contribute to understanding some levels of organization and cooperative behaviour in ecological and social systems. We use the ideas and results reported here to discuss an issue of current interest in ecology: the mistimings in egg laying observed for some species of bird as a consequence of their slower rate of adaptation to climate change in comparison with that shown by their prey. Our model supports the hypothesis that habitat-specific constraints could explain why different populations are adapting differently to this situation, in agreement with recent experiments.

  10. Understanding Snow Depth Variability with Respect to the Canopy in Multiple Climates Using Airborne LiDAR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Currier, W. R.; Giulia, M.; Pflug, J. M.; Jonas, T.; Jessica, L.

    2017-12-01

    Snow depth within a typical hydrologic model grid cell (150 m or 1 km) can vary from 0.5 meters to 6 meters, or more. This variability is driven by the meteorological conditions throughout the winter as well as the forest architecture. To better understand this variability, we used airborne LiDAR from Olympic National Park, WA, Yosemite National Park, CA, Jemez Caldera, NM, and Niwot Ridge, CO to determine unique spatial patterns of snow depth in forested regions. Specifically, we compared snow depth distributions along north facing forest edges and south facing forest edges to those in the open or directly under the canopy. When categorizing the north facing and south facing edges based on distance from the canopy, distances relative to tree height, and distances relative to the fraction of the sky that is visible (sky view factor) we found unique snow depth patterns for each of these regions. In all regions besides Olympic National Park, WA, north facing edges contained more snow than open areas, forested areas, or along the south facing edges. These snow distributions were relatively consistent regardless of the metric used to define the forest edge and the size of the domain (150 m through 1 km). The absence of the forest edge effect in Olympic National Park was attributed to the meteorological data and climate conditions, which showed significantly less incoming shortwave radiation and more incoming longwave radiation. Furthermore, this study evaluated the effect that wind speed and direction have on the spatial distribution of snow depth.

  11. Multiclass Classification of Agro-Ecological Zones for Arabica Coffee: An Improved Understanding of the Impacts of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bunn, Christian; Läderach, Peter; Pérez Jimenez, Juan Guillermo; Montagnon, Christophe; Schilling, Timothy

    2015-01-01

    Cultivation of Coffea arabica is highly sensitive to and has been shown to be negatively impacted by progressive climatic changes. Previous research contributed little to support forward-looking adaptation. Agro-ecological zoning is a common tool to identify homologous environments and prioritize research. We demonstrate here a pragmatic approach to describe spatial changes in agro-climatic zones suitable for coffee under current and future climates. We defined agro-ecological zones suitable to produce arabica coffee by clustering geo-referenced coffee occurrence locations based on bio-climatic variables. We used random forest classification of climate data layers to model the spatial distribution of these agro-ecological zones. We used these zones to identify spatially explicit impact scenarios and to choose locations for the long-term evaluation of adaptation measures as climate changes. We found that in zones currently classified as hot and dry, climate change will impact arabica more than those that are better suited to it. Research in these zones should therefore focus on expanding arabica's environmental limits. Zones that currently have climates better suited for arabica will migrate upwards by about 500m in elevation. In these zones the up-slope migration will be gradual, but will likely have negative ecosystem impacts. Additionally, we identified locations that with high probability will not change their climatic characteristics and are suitable to evaluate C. arabica germplasm in the face of climate change. These locations should be used to investigate long term adaptation strategies to production systems. PMID:26505637

  12. America's Climate Choices: Advancing the Science of Climate Change (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matson, P. A.; Dietz, T.; Kraucunas, I.

    2010-12-01

    At the request of Congress, the National Academy of Sciences convened a series of coordinated activities to provide advice on actions and strategies the nation can take to respond to climate change. This suite of activities included a panel report on Advancing the Science of Climate Change. The report concludes that a strong, credible body of scientific evidence shows that climate change is occurring, is caused largely by human activities, and poses significant risks for a broad range of human and natural systems. As decision makers respond to these risks, the nation's scientific enterprise can contribute both by continuing to improve understanding of the causes and consequences of climate change, and by improving and expanding the options available to limit the magnitude of climate change and adapt to its impacts. To make this possible, the nation needs a comprehensive, integrated, and flexible climate change research enterprise that is closely linked with action-oriented programs at all levels. The report recommends that a single federal entity or program be given the authority and resources to coordinate a national research effort integrated across many disciplines and aimed at improving both understanding and responses to climate change. The U.S. Global Change Research Program, established in 1990, could fulfill this role, but it would need to address weaknesses in the current program and form partnerships with action-oriented programs at all levels. A comprehensive climate observing system, improved climate models and other analytical tools, investment in human capital, and better linkages between research and decision making are also essential for advancing the science of climate change.

  13. Comparison between the Understanding Levels of Boys and Girls on the Concepts of Environmental Degradation, Meteorology and Climate Change in Tanzanian Secondary Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kira, Ernest S.; Komba, Sotco C.

    2015-01-01

    The study aimed to determine whether there was any significant difference in understanding levels between secondary school boys and girls on the concepts of environmental degradation, meteorology and climate change. Both structured survey and focus group discussions were used to collect information from 480 students, sampled randomly from 12…

  14. Urban Change: Understanding how expansion and densification relate to demographic change and their implications for climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balk, D.; Jones, B.; Liu, Z.; Nghiem, S. V.; Pesaresi, M.

    2015-12-01

    provides a more accurate understanding of urban processes, particularly in the context of climate change (as shown in Figure 1). Together these will help understand the form of urban change as well as the relationship between urban change, vulnerability and population distribution within and on the periphery of growing cities.

  15. Understanding surface-water availability in the Central Valley as a means to projecting future groundwater storage with climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodrich, J. P.; Cayan, D. R.

    2017-12-01

    California's Central Valley (CV) relies heavily on diverted surface water and groundwater pumping to supply irrigated agriculture. However, understanding the spatiotemporal character of water availability in the CV is difficult because of the number of individual farms and local, state, and federal agencies involved in using and managing water. Here we use the Central Valley Hydrologic Model (CVHM), developed by the USGS, to understand the relationships between climatic variability, surface water inputs, and resulting groundwater use over the historical period 1970-2013. We analyzed monthly surface water diversion data from >500 CV locations. Principle components analyses were applied to drivers constructed from meteorological data, surface reservoir storage, ET, land use cover, and upstream inflows, to feed multiple regressions and identify factors most important in predicting surface water diversions. Two thirds of the diversion locations ( 80% of total diverted water) can be predicted to within 15%. Along with monthly inputs, representations of cumulative precipitation over the previous 3 to 36 months can explain an additional 10% of variance, depending on location, compared to results that excluded this information. Diversions in the southern CV are highly sensitive to inter-annual variability in precipitation (R2 = 0.8), whereby more surface water is used during wet years. Until recently, this was not the case in the northern and mid-CV, where diversions were relatively constant annually, suggesting relative insensitivity to drought. In contrast, this has important implications for drought response in southern regions (eg. Tulare Basin) where extended dry conditions can severely limit surface water supplies and lead to excess groundwater pumping, storage loss, and subsidence. In addition to fueling our understanding of spatiotemporal variability in diversions, our ability to predict these water balance components allows us to update CVHM predictions before

  16. Carbon dioxide and climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-10-01

    Global climate change is a serious environmental concern, and the US has developed ''An Action Agenda'' to deal with it. At the heart of the US effort is the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), which has been developed by the Committee on Earth and Environmental Sciences (CEES) of the Federal Coordinating Council for Sciences, Engineering, and Technology (FCCSET). The USGCRP will provide the scientific basis for sound policy making on the climate-change issue. The DOE contribution to the USGCRP is the Carbon Dioxide Research Program, which now places particular emphasis on the rapid improvement of the capability to predict global and regional climate change. DOE's Carbon Dioxide Research Program has been addressing the carbon dioxide-climate change connection for more than twelve years and has provided a solid scientific foundation for the USGCRP. The expansion of the DOE effort reflects the increased attention that the Department has placed on the issue and is reflected in the National Energy Strategy (NES) that was released in 1991. This Program Summary describes projects funded by the Carbon Dioxide Research Program during FY 1991 and gives a brief overview of objectives, organization, and accomplishments. The Environmental Sciences Division of the Office of Health and Environmental Research, Office of Energy Research supports a Carbon Dioxide Research Program to determine the scientific linkage between the rise of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, especially carbon dioxide, and climate and vegetation change. One facet is the Core CO 2 Program, a pioneering program that DOE established more than 10 years ago to understand and predict the ways that fossil-fuel burning could affect atmospheric CO 2 concentration, global climate, and the Earth's biosphere. Major research areas are: global carbon cycle; climate detection and models of climate change; vegetation research; resource analysis; and, information and integration

  17. Global soil-climate-biome diagram: linking soil properties to climate and biota

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, X.; Yang, Y.; Fang, J.

    2017-12-01

    As a critical component of the Earth system, soils interact strongly with both climate and biota and provide fundamental ecosystem services that maintain food, climate, and human security. Despite significant progress in digital soil mapping techniques and the rapidly growing quantity of observed soil information, quantitative linkages between soil properties, climate and biota at the global scale remain unclear. By compiling a large global soil database, we mapped seven major soil properties (bulk density [BD]; sand, silt and clay fractions; soil pH; soil organic carbon [SOC] density [SOCD]; and soil total nitrogen [STN] density [STND]) based on machine learning algorithms (regional random forest [RF] model) and quantitatively assessed the linkage between soil properties, climate and biota at the global scale. Our results demonstrated a global soil-climate-biome diagram, which improves our understanding of the strong correspondence between soils, climate and biomes. Soil pH decreased with greater mean annual precipitation (MAP) and lower mean annual temperature (MAT), and the critical MAP for the transition from alkaline to acidic soil pH decreased with decreasing MAT. Specifically, the critical MAP ranged from 400-500 mm when the MAT exceeded 10 °C but could decrease to 50-100 mm when the MAT was approximately 0 °C. SOCD and STND were tightly linked; both increased in accordance with lower MAT and higher MAP across terrestrial biomes. Global stocks of SOC and STN were estimated to be 788 ± 39.4 Pg (1015 g, or billion tons) and 63 ± 3.3 Pg in the upper 30-cm soil layer, respectively, but these values increased to 1654 ± 94.5 Pg and 133 ± 7.8 Pg in the upper 100-cm soil layer, respectively. These results reveal quantitative linkages between soil properties, climate and biota at the global scale, suggesting co-evolution of the soil, climate and biota under conditions of global environmental change.

  18. Understanding the Impacts of Soil, Climate and Farming Practices on Soil Organic Carbon Sequestration: a Simulation Study in Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cecile Marie Godde

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Carbon sequestration in agricultural soils has the capacity to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, as well as to improve soil biological, physical and chemical properties. The review of literature pertaining to soil organic carbon (SOC dynamics within Australian grain farming systems does not enable us to conclude on the best farming practices to increase or maintain SOC for a specific combination of soil and climate. This study aimed to further explore the complex interactions of soil, climate and farming practices on SOC. We undertook a modeling study with the APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator modeling framework, by combining contrasting Australian soils, climates and farming practices (crop rotations, and management within rotations, such as fertilization, tillage and residue management in a factorial design. This design resulted in the transposition of contrasting soils and climates in our simulations, giving soil-climate combinations that do not occur in the study area to help provide insights into the importance of the climate constraints on SOC. We statistically analyzed the model’s outputs to determinate the relative contributions of soil parameters, climate and farming practices on SOC. The initial SOC content had the largest impact on the value of SOC, followed by the climate and the fertilization practices. These factors explained 66%, 18% and 15% of SOC variations, respectively, after 80 years of constant farming practices in the simulation. Tillage and stubble management had the lowest impacts on SOC. This study highlighted the possible negative impact on SOC of a chickpea phase in a wheat-chickpea rotation and the potential positive impact of a cover crop in a sub-tropical climate (Queensland on SOC. It also showed the complexities in managing to achieve increased SOC, while simultaneously aiming to minimize nitrous oxide (N2O emissions and nitrate leaching in farming systems. The transposition of contrasting soils

  19. Understanding the Impacts of Soil, Climate, and Farming Practices on Soil Organic Carbon Sequestration: A Simulation Study in Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Godde, Cécile M; Thorburn, Peter J; Biggs, Jody S; Meier, Elizabeth A

    2016-01-01

    Carbon sequestration in agricultural soils has the capacity to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, as well as to improve soil biological, physical, and chemical properties. The review of literature pertaining to soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics within Australian grain farming systems does not enable us to conclude on the best farming practices to increase or maintain SOC for a specific combination of soil and climate. This study aimed to further explore the complex interactions of soil, climate, and farming practices on SOC. We undertook a modeling study with the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator modeling framework, by combining contrasting Australian soils, climates, and farming practices (crop rotations, and management within rotations, such as fertilization, tillage, and residue management) in a factorial design. This design resulted in the transposition of contrasting soils and climates in our simulations, giving soil-climate combinations that do not occur in the study area to help provide insights into the importance of the climate constraints on SOC. We statistically analyzed the model's outputs to determinate the relative contributions of soil parameters, climate, and farming practices on SOC. The initial SOC content had the largest impact on the value of SOC, followed by the climate and the fertilization practices. These factors explained 66, 18, and 15% of SOC variations, respectively, after 80 years of constant farming practices in the simulation. Tillage and stubble management had the lowest impacts on SOC. This study highlighted the possible negative impact on SOC of a chickpea phase in a wheat-chickpea rotation and the potential positive impact of a cover crop in a sub-tropical climate (QLD, Australia) on SOC. It also showed the complexities in managing to achieve increased SOC, while simultaneously aiming to minimize nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions and nitrate leaching in farming systems. The transposition of contrasting soils and climates in

  20. A guide to evaluating linkage quality for the analysis of linked data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harron, Katie L; Doidge, James C; Knight, Hannah E; Gilbert, Ruth E; Goldstein, Harvey; Cromwell, David A; van der Meulen, Jan H

    2017-10-01

    Linked datasets are an important resource for epidemiological and clinical studies, but linkage error can lead to biased results. For data security reasons, linkage of personal identifiers is often performed by a third party, making it difficult for researchers to assess the quality of the linked dataset in the context of specific research questions. This is compounded by a lack of guidance on how to determine the potential impact of linkage error. We describe how linkage quality can be evaluated and provide widely applicable guidance for both data providers and researchers. Using an illustrative example of a linked dataset of maternal and baby hospital records, we demonstrate three approaches for evaluating linkage quality: applying the linkage algorithm to a subset of gold standard data to quantify linkage error; comparing characteristics of linked and unlinked data to identify potential sources of bias; and evaluating the sensitivity of results to changes in the linkage procedure. These approaches can inform our understanding of the potential impact of linkage error and provide an opportunity to select the most appropriate linkage procedure for a specific analysis. Evaluating linkage quality in this way will improve the quality and transparency of epidemiological and clinical research using linked data. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

  1. Argumentation as a Strategy for Increasing Preservice Teachers' Understanding of Climate Change, a Key Global Socioscientific Issue

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambert, Julie L.; Bleicher, Robert E.

    2017-01-01

    Findings of this study suggest that scientific argumentation can play an effective role in addressing complex socioscientific issues (i.e. global climate change). This research examined changes in preservice teachers' knowledge and perceptions about climate change in an innovative undergraduate-level elementary science methods course. The…

  2. Resource linkages and sustainable development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anouti, Yahya

    Historically, fossil fuel consumers in most developing hydrocarbon-rich countries have enjoyed retail prices at a discount from international benchmarks. Governments of these countries consider the subsidy transfer to be a means for sharing the wealth from their resource endowment. These subsidies create negative economic, environmental, and social distortions, which can only increase over time with a fast growing, young, and rich population. The pressure to phase out these subsidies has been mounting over the last years. At the same time, policy makers in resource-rich developing countries are keen to obtain the greatest benefits for their economies from the extraction of their exhaustible resources. To this end, they are deploying local content policies with the aim of increasing the economic linkages from extracting their resources. Against this background, this dissertation's three essays evaluate (1) the global impact of rationalizing transport fuel prices, (2) how resource-rich countries can achieve the objectives behind fuel subsidies more efficiently through direct cash transfers, and (3) the economic tradeoffs from deploying local content policies and the presence of an optimal path. We begin by reviewing the literature and building the case for rationalizing transport fuel prices to reflect their direct costs (production), indirect costs (road maintenance) and negative externalities (climate change, local pollutants, traffic accidents and congestion). To do so, we increase the scope of the economic literature by presenting an algorithm to evaluate the rationalized prices in different countries. Then, we apply this algorithm to quantify the rationalized prices across 123 countries in a partial equilibrium setting. Finally, we present the first comprehensive measure of the impact of rationalizing fuel prices on the global demand for gasoline and diesel, environmental emissions, government revenues, and consumers' welfare. By rationalizing transport fuel

  3. Using silicon isotopes to understand the role of the Southern Ocean in modern and ancient biogeochemistry and climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hendry, Katharine R.; Brzezinski, Mark A.

    2014-04-01

    The growth of siliceous phytoplankton, mainly diatoms, in the Southern Ocean influences the preformed nutrient inventory in the ocean on a global scale. Silicic acid use by diatoms and deep circulation combine to trap dissolved Si in the Southern Ocean resulting in high levels of silica production and expansive diatom oozes in Southern Ocean sediments. The analysis of the silicon isotope composition of biogenic silica, or opal, and dissolved silicic acid provide insight into the operation of the global marine silicon cycle and the role played by the Southern Ocean in nutrient supply and carbon drawdown, both in the modern and in the past. Silicon isotope studies of diatoms have provided insight into the history of silica production in surface waters, while the analysis of spicules from deep sea sponges has defined both the spatial and the temporal variability of silicic acid concentrations in the water column; together these - and other - proxies reveal variations in the northward flow of Southern Ocean intermediate and mode waters and how changes in Southern Ocean productivity altered their preformed nutrient content. We present a new hypothesis - the "Silicic Acid Ventilation Hypothesis" (SAVH) - to explain the geographical variation of opal-based proxy records, in particular the contrasting patterns of opal burial change found in the low and high latitudes. By understanding the silicon isotope systematics of opal and silicic acid in the modern, we will be able to use opal-based proxies to reconstruct past changes in the Southern Ocean and so investigate its role in global carbon cycling and climate.

  4. Collaborative Research: Towards Advanced Understanding and Predictive Capability of Climate Change in the Arctic Using a High-Resolution Regional Arctic Climate Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cassano, John [Principal Investigator

    2013-06-30

    The primary research task completed for this project was the development of the Regional Arctic Climate Model (RACM). This involved coupling existing atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land models using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model (CCSM) coupler (CPL7). RACM is based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) atmospheric model, the Parallel Ocean Program (POP) ocean model, the CICE sea ice model, and the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land model. A secondary research task for this project was testing and evaluation of WRF for climate-scale simulations on the large pan-Arctic model domain used in RACM. This involved identification of a preferred set of model physical parameterizations for use in our coupled RACM simulations and documenting any atmospheric biases present in RACM.

  5. Spline models of contemporary, 2030, 2060, and 2090 climates for Mexico and their use in understanding climate-change impacts on the vegetation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuauhtemoc Saenz-Romero; Gerald E. Rehfeldt; Nicholas L. Crookston; Pierre Duval; Remi St-Amant; Jean Beaulieu; Bryce A. Richardson

    2010-01-01

    Spatial climate models were developed for Mexico and its periphery (southern USA, Cuba, Belize and Guatemala) for monthly normals (1961-1990) of average, maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation using thin plate smoothing splines of ANUSPLIN software on ca. 3,800 observations. The fit of the model was generally good: the signal was considerably less than one-...

  6. Understanding the Combined Influence of Boreal Landuse and Climate Change on Catchment Functioning through Virtual Forest Alterations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teutschbein, Claudia; Grabs, Thomas; Karlsen, Reinert H.; Laudon, Hjalmar; Bishop, Kevin

    2017-04-01

    The available scientific literature on hydrological climate change impacts in boreal regions in northern Europe consistently suggests increasing amounts of annual river streamflow. In these regions, the present-day streamflow regimes with low winter flow and a dominating snow-melt driven spring flood peak will transform to regimes with a much lower amplitude and an earlier initiation and peaking of the spring flood. Such changes lead to alterations of flow duration curves, indicating lower chances for both high and low flows in a future warmer climate. The question arises as to whether one can draw such generalized conclusions in terms of future hydrological changes for a larger boreal region based on a selection of representative catchment studies. One could argue that nearby catchments within the same climate zone should function in similar ways, which means that conclusions can be drawn for a larger region with the same climate conditions. It is, however, well acknowledged that present-day hydrological functioning and the variability at multiple temporal and spatial scales are not only controlled by external climatic conditions, but also by physical properties such as topographic features, soil characteristics, catchment area, land cover, vegetation type or geology. Consequently, this raises the question as to what extend variability in projected future streamflow changes is predetermined by the landscape characteristics in a catchment. To answer this question, we explored how landscape characteristics such as topography, geology, soils and land cover influence the way boreal catchments respond to changing climate conditions. Based on an ensemble of 15 regional climate models bias-corrected with a distribution-mapping approach, present and future streamflow in 14 neighbouring and rather similar catchments in Northern Sweden was simulated with the HBV model. We established functional relationships between a range of landscape characteristics and projected future

  7. Understanding Hydrological Processes in Variable Source Areas in the Glaciated Northeastern US Watersheds under Variable Climate Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steenhuis, T. S.; Azzaino, Z.; Hoang, L.; Pacenka, S.; Worqlul, A. W.; Mukundan, R.; Stoof, C.; Owens, E. M.; Richards, B. K.

    2017-12-01

    The New York City source watersheds in the Catskill Mountains' humid, temperate climate has long-term hydrological and water quality monitoring data It is one of the few catchments where implementation of source and landscape management practices has led to decreased phosphorus concentration in the receiving surface waters. One of the reasons is that landscape measures correctly targeted the saturated variable source runoff areas (VSA) in the valley bottoms as the location where most of the runoff and other nonpoint pollutants originated. Measures targeting these areas were instrumental in lowering phosphorus concentration. Further improvements in water quality can be made based on a better understanding of the flow processes and water table fluctuations in the VSA. For that reason, we instrumented a self-contained upland variable source watershed with a landscape characteristic of a soil underlain by glacial till at shallow depth similar to the Catskill watersheds. In this presentation, we will discuss our experimental findings and present a mathematical model. Variable source areas have a small slope making gravity the driving force for the flow, greatly simplifying the simulation of the flow processes. The experimental data and the model simulations agreed for both outflow and water table fluctuations. We found that while the flows to the outlet were similar throughout the year, the discharge of the VSA varies greatly. This was due to transpiration by the plants which became active when soil temperatures were above 10oC. We found that shortly after the temperature increased above 10oC the baseflow stopped and only surface runoff occurred when rainstorms exceeded the storage capacity of the soil in at least a portion of the variable source area. Since plant growth in the variable source area was a major variable determining the base flow behavior, changes in temperature in the future - affecting the duration of the growing season - will affect baseflow and

  8. Understanding of crop phenology using satellite-based retrievals and climate factors – a case study on spring maize in Northeast China plain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shuai, Yanmin; Xie, Donghui; Wang, Peijuan; Wu, Menxin

    2014-01-01

    Land surface phenology is an efficient bio-indicator for monitoring terrestrial ecosystem variation in response to climate change. Numerous studies point out climate change plays an important role in modulating vegetation phenological events, especially in agriculture. In turn, surface changes caused by geo-biological processes can affect climate transition regionally and perhaps globally, as concluded by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2001. Large amounts of research concluded that crops, as one of the most sensitive bio-indicators for climate change, can be strongly influenced by local weather such as temperature, moisture and radiation. Thus, investigating the details of weather impact and the feedback from crops can help improve our understanding of the interaction between crops and climate change at satellite scale. Our efforts start from this point, via case studies over the famous agriculture region in the Northeast China's plain to examine the response of spring maize under temperature and moisture stress. MODIS-based daily green vegetation information together with frequent field specification of the surface phenology as well as continuous measurements of the routine climatic factors during seven years (2003-2009) is used in this paper. Despite the obvious difference in scale between satellite estimations and field observations, the inter- and intra-annual variation of maize in seven-years' growth was captured successfully over three typical spring maize regions (Fuyu, Changling, and Hailun) in Northeast China. The results demonstrate that weather conditions such as changes of temperature and moisture stress provide considerable contribution to the year-to-year variations in the timing of spring maize phenological events

  9. Predicting Effects of Climate Change on Habitat Suitability of Red Spruce (Picea rubens Sarg. in the Southern Appalachian Mountains of the USA: Understanding Complex Systems Mechanisms through Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyung Ah Koo

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Alpine, subalpine and boreal tree species, of low genetic diversity and adapted to low optimal temperatures, are vulnerable to the warming effects of global climate change. The accurate prediction of these species’ distributions in response to climate change is critical for effective planning and management. The goal of this research is to predict climate change effects on the distribution of red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg. in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GSMNP, eastern USA. Climate change is, however, conflated with other environmental factors, making its assessment a complex systems problem in which indirect effects are significant in causality. Predictions were made by linking a tree growth simulation model, red spruce growth model (ARIM.SIM, to a GIS spatial model, red spruce habitat model (ARIM.HAB. ARIM.SIM quantifies direct and indirect interactions between red spruce and its growth factors, revealing the latter to be dominant. ARIM.HAB spatially distributes the ARIM.SIM simulations under the assumption that greater growth reflects higher probabilities of presence. ARIM.HAB predicts the future habitat suitability of red spruce based on growth predictions of ARIM.SIM under climate change and three air pollution scenarios: 10% increase, no change and 10% decrease. Results show that suitable habitats shrink most when air pollution increases. Higher temperatures cause losses of most low-elevation habitats. Increased precipitation and air pollution produce acid rain, which causes loss of both low- and high-elevation habitats. The general prediction is that climate change will cause contraction of red spruce habitats at both lower and higher elevations in GSMNP, and the effects will be exacerbated by increased air pollution. These predictions provide valuable information for understanding potential impacts of global climate change on the spatiotemporal distribution of red spruce habitats in GSMNP.

  10. Understanding of crop phenology using satellite-based retrievals and climate factors - a case study on spring maize in Northeast China plain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shuai, Yanmin; Xie, Donghui; Wang, Peijuan; Wu, Menxin

    2014-03-01

    Land surface phenology is an efficient bio-indicator for monitoring terrestrial ecosystem variation in response to climate change. Numerous studies point out climate change plays an important role in modulating vegetation phenological events, especially in agriculture. In turn, surface changes caused by geo-biological processes can affect climate transition regionally and perhaps globally, as concluded by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2001. Large amounts of research concluded that crops, as one of the most sensitive bio-indicators for climate change, can be strongly influenced by local weather such as temperature, moisture and radiation. Thus, investigating the details of weather impact and the feedback from crops can help improve our understanding of the interaction between crops and climate change at satellite scale. Our efforts start from this point, via case studies over the famous agriculture region in the Northeast China's plain to examine the response of spring maize under temperature and moisture stress. MODIS-based daily green vegetation information together with frequent field specification of the surface phenology as well as continuous measurements of the routine climatic factors during seven years (2003-2009) is used in this paper. Despite the obvious difference in scale between satellite estimations and field observations, the inter- and intra-annual variation of maize in seven-years' growth was captured successfully over three typical spring maize regions (Fuyu, Changling, and Hailun) in Northeast China. The results demonstrate that weather conditions such as changes of temperature and moisture stress provide considerable contribution to the year-to-year variations in the timing of spring maize phenological events.

  11. STAKEHOLDER LINKAGES FOR SUSTAINABLE LAND ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Osondu

    This paper presents stakeholder types involved in sustainable land management (SLM), their interests and ... (DAs), and Rural Kebele Administration (RKA) offices were major stakeholders involved in SLM activities in the ... Key words: Stakeholders; farmer-expert linkages; resource management; Ethiopia. Introduction.

  12. Piloting a Geoscience Literacy Exam for Assessing Students' Understanding of Earth, Climate, Atmospheric and Ocean Science Concepts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steer, D. N.; Iverson, E. A.; Manduca, C. A.

    2013-12-01

    This research seeks to develop valid and reliable questions that faculty can use to assess geoscience literacy across the curriculum. We are particularly interested on effects of curricula developed to teach Earth, Climate, Atmospheric, and Ocean Science concepts in the context of societal issues across the disciplines. This effort is part of the InTeGrate project designed to create a population of college graduates who are poised to use geoscience knowledge in developing solutions to current and future environmental and resource challenges. Details concerning the project are found at http://serc.carleton.edu/integrate/index.html. The Geoscience Literacy Exam (GLE) under development presently includes 90 questions. Each big idea from each literacy document can be probed using one or more of three independent questions: 1) a single answer, multiple choice question aimed at basic understanding or application of key concepts, 2) a multiple correct answer, multiple choice question targeting the analyzing to analysis levels and 3) a short essay question that tests analysis or evaluation cognitive levels. We anticipate multiple-choice scores and the detail and sophistication of essay responses will increase as students engage with the curriculum. As part of the field testing of InTeGrate curricula, faculty collected student responses from classes that involved over 700 students. These responses included eight pre- and post-test multiple-choice questions that covered various concepts across the four literacies. Discrimination indices calculated from the data suggest that the eight tested questions provide a valid measure of literacy within the scope of the concepts covered. Student normalized gains across an academic term with limited InTeGrate exposure (typically two or fewer weeks of InTeGrate curriculum out of 14 weeks) were found to average 16% gain. A small set of control data (250 students in classes from one institution where no InTeGrate curricula were used) was

  13. Changing rural urban linkages in Africa in a globalizing economy ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The role of rural-urban linkages is critically vital for Africa‟s development in this era of rapid socio-economic transformation. A better understanding of cities and how they relate both to the rural and urban development is needed in view of the continuous changes in development. This paper argues that many of Africa‟s ...

  14. Changes in Tibetan Plateau latitude as an important factor for understanding East Asian climate since the Eocene: A modeling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ran; Jiang, Dabang; Ramstein, Gilles; Zhang, Zhongshi; Lippert, Peter C.; Yu, Entao

    2018-02-01

    Previous climate modeling studies suggest that the surface uplift of the Himalaya-Tibetan plateau (TP) is a crucial parameter for the onset and intensification of the East Asian monsoon during the Cenozoic. Most of these studies have only considered the Himalaya-TP in its present location between ∼26°N and ∼40°N despite numerous recent geophysical studies that reconstruct the Himalaya-TP 10° or more of latitude to the south during the early Paleogene. We have designed a series of climate simulations to explore the sensitivity of East Asian climate to the latitude of the Himalaya-TP. Our simulations suggest that the East Asian climate strongly depends on the latitude of the Himalaya-TP. Surface uplift of a proto-Himalaya-TP in the subtropics intensifies aridity throughout inland Asia north of ∼40°N and enhances precipitation over East Asia. In contrast, the rise of a proto-Himalaya-TP in the tropics only slightly intensifies aridity in inland Asia north of ∼40°N, and slightly increases precipitation in East Asia. Importantly, this climate sensitivity to the latitudinal position of the Himalaya-TP is non-linear, particularly for precipitation across East Asia. The simulated precipitation patterns across East Asia are significantly different between our scenarios in which a proto-plateau is situated between ∼11°N and ∼25°N and between ∼20°N and ∼33°N, but they are similar when the plateau translates northward from between ∼20°N and ∼33°N to its modern position. Our simulations, when interpreted in the context of climate proxy data from Central Asia, support geophysically-based paleogeographic reconstructions in which the southern margin of a modern-elevation proto-Himalaya-TP was located at ∼20°N or further north in the Eocene.

  15. Efficient Record Linkage Algorithms Using Complete Linkage Clustering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mamun, Abdullah-Al; Aseltine, Robert; Rajasekaran, Sanguthevar

    2016-01-01

    Data from different agencies share data of the same individuals. Linking these datasets to identify all the records belonging to the same individuals is a crucial and challenging problem, especially given the large volumes of data. A large number of available algorithms for record linkage are prone to either time inefficiency or low-accuracy in finding matches and non-matches among the records. In this paper we propose efficient as well as reliable sequential and parallel algorithms for the record linkage problem employing hierarchical clustering methods. We employ complete linkage hierarchical clustering algorithms to address this problem. In addition to hierarchical clustering, we also use two other techniques: elimination of duplicate records and blocking. Our algorithms use sorting as a sub-routine to identify identical copies of records. We have tested our algorithms on datasets with millions of synthetic records. Experimental results show that our algorithms achieve nearly 100% accuracy. Parallel implementations achieve almost linear speedups. Time complexities of these algorithms do not exceed those of previous best-known algorithms. Our proposed algorithms outperform previous best-known algorithms in terms of accuracy consuming reasonable run times. PMID:27124604

  16. Efficient Record Linkage Algorithms Using Complete Linkage Clustering.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mamun, Abdullah-Al; Aseltine, Robert; Rajasekaran, Sanguthevar

    2016-01-01

    Data from different agencies share data of the same individuals. Linking these datasets to identify all the records belonging to the same individuals is a crucial and challenging problem, especially given the large volumes of data. A large number of available algorithms for record linkage are prone to either time inefficiency or low-accuracy in finding matches and non-matches among the records. In this paper we propose efficient as well as reliable sequential and parallel algorithms for the record linkage problem employing hierarchical clustering methods. We employ complete linkage hierarchical clustering algorithms to address this problem. In addition to hierarchical clustering, we also use two other techniques: elimination of duplicate records and blocking. Our algorithms use sorting as a sub-routine to identify identical copies of records. We have tested our algorithms on datasets with millions of synthetic records. Experimental results show that our algorithms achieve nearly 100% accuracy. Parallel implementations achieve almost linear speedups. Time complexities of these algorithms do not exceed those of previous best-known algorithms. Our proposed algorithms outperform previous best-known algorithms in terms of accuracy consuming reasonable run times.

  17. Understanding developing country stances on post-2012 climate change negotiations: Comparative analysis of Brazil, China, India, Mexico, and South Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rong Fang

    2010-01-01

    An essential issue in future climate negotiations is how to bring developing countries on board. This paper proposes and applies the two-level interest-based model to analyze the factors that affect the likely stances of the 'Plus Five' countries (Brazil, China, India, Mexico, and South Africa) on international climate negotiations. This study finds mitigation capability to be a crucial factor which consists of at least such sub-factors as per capita income, energy endowment, and economic structure, while ecological vulnerability does not seem to play an important role which includes reductions in agricultural outputs, sea-level rise, climate-related natural disasters, and others. The paper proposes six options in an ascending order of stringency that the Plus Five are likely to adopt. The paper suggests that the 'Basic Four' (the Plus Five excluding Mexico), particularly China and India, are less likely to adopt a voluntary commitment to an emissions cap on the national economy in the near future than Mexico, which has the highest mitigation capability among all five. The Basic Four are likely to adopt more stringent climate polices with increasing mitigation capabilities, suggesting the importance of effective international financial and technology transfer mechanisms and further tighten emission reduction targets from developed countries.

  18. Student Understanding of Climate Change: Influences of College Major and Environmental Group Membership on Undergraduate Knowledge and Mental Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huxster, Joanna

    2013-01-01

    A consensus has been reached within the scientific community concerning the occurrence of climate change and its anthropogenic causes. Outside of this community, however, there continues to be considerable debate and confusion surrounding the topic. The government mitigation strategies and political leadership needed for this issue will require…

  19. Does an understanding of ecosystems responses to rainfall pulses improve predictions of responses of drylands to climate change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drylands will experience more intense and frequent droughts and floods. Ten-year field experiments manipulating the amount and variability of precipitation suggest that we cannot predict responses of drylands to climate change based on pulse experimentation. Long-term drought experiments showed no e...

  20. Interactive effects of air pollution and climate change on forest ecosystems in the United States: current understanding and future scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrzej Bytnerowicz; Mark Fenn; Steven McNulty; Fengming Yuan; Afshin Pourmokhtarian; Charles Driscoll; Tom Meixner

    2013-01-01

    A review of the current status of air pollution and climate change (CC) in the United States from a perspective of their impacts on forest ecosystems is provided. Ambient ozone (O3) and nitrogen (N) deposition have important and widespread ecological impacts in U.S. forests. Effects of sulphurous (S) air pollutants and other trace pollutants have...

  1. Understanding developing country stances on post-2012 climate change negotiations: Comparative analysis of Brazil, China, India, Mexico, and South Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rong Fang, E-mail: rongfang98@hotmail.co [Laboratory on International Law and Regulation, School of International Relations and Pacific Studies, University of California, San Diego, 92093 (United States); Center for Industrial Development and Environmental Governance, School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China)

    2010-08-15

    An essential issue in future climate negotiations is how to bring developing countries on board. This paper proposes and applies the two-level interest-based model to analyze the factors that affect the likely stances of the 'Plus Five' countries (Brazil, China, India, Mexico, and South Africa) on international climate negotiations. This study finds mitigation capability to be a crucial factor which consists of at least such sub-factors as per capita income, energy endowment, and economic structure, while ecological vulnerability does not seem to play an important role which includes reductions in agricultural outputs, sea-level rise, climate-related natural disasters, and others. The paper proposes six options in an ascending order of stringency that the Plus Five are likely to adopt. The paper suggests that the 'Basic Four' (the Plus Five excluding Mexico), particularly China and India, are less likely to adopt a voluntary commitment to an emissions cap on the national economy in the near future than Mexico, which has the highest mitigation capability among all five. The Basic Four are likely to adopt more stringent climate polices with increasing mitigation capabilities, suggesting the importance of effective international financial and technology transfer mechanisms and further tighten emission reduction targets from developed countries.

  2. Understanding developing country stances on post-2012 climate change negotiations. Comparative analysis of Brazil, China, India, Mexico, and South Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rong, Fang [Laboratory on International Law and Regulation, School of International Relations and Pacific Studies, University of California, San Diego, 92093 (United States); Center for Industrial Development and Environmental Governance, School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China)

    2010-08-15

    An essential issue in future climate negotiations is how to bring developing countries on board. This paper proposes and applies the two-level interest-based model to analyze the factors that affect the likely stances of the Plus Five countries (Brazil, China, India, Mexico, and South Africa) on international climate negotiations. This study finds mitigation capability to be a crucial factor which consists of at least such sub-factors as per capita income, energy endowment, and economic structure, while ecological vulnerability does not seem to play an important role which includes reductions in agricultural outputs, sea-level rise, climate-related natural disasters, and others. The paper proposes six options in an ascending order of stringency that the Plus Five are likely to adopt. The paper suggests that the Basic Four (the Plus Five excluding Mexico), particularly China and India, are less likely to adopt a voluntary commitment to an emissions cap on the national economy in the near future than Mexico, which has the highest mitigation capability among all five. The Basic Four are likely to adopt more stringent climate polices with increasing mitigation capabilities, suggesting the importance of effective international financial and technology transfer mechanisms and further tighten emission reduction targets from developed countries. (author)

  3. Understanding the impacts of climate change and human activities on streamflow: a case study of the Soan River basin, Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahid, Muhammad; Cong, Zhentao; Zhang, Danwu

    2017-09-01

    Climate change and land use change are the two main factors that can alter the catchment hydrological process. The objective of this study is to evaluate the relative contribution of climate change and land use change to runoff change of the Soan River basin. The Mann-Kendal and the Pettit tests are used to find out the trends and change point in hydroclimatic variables during the period 1983-2012. Two different approaches including the abcd hydrological model and the Budyko framework are then used to quantify the impact of climate change and land use change on streamflow. The results from both methods are consistent and show that annual runoff has significantly decreased with a change point around 1997. The decrease in precipitation and increases in potential evapotranspiration contribute 68% of the detected change while the rest of the detected change is due to land use change. The land use change acquired from Landsat shows that during post-change period, the agriculture has increased in the Soan basin, which is in line with the positive contribution of land use change to runoff decrease. This study concludes that aforementioned methods performed well in quantifying the relative contribution of land use change and climate change to runoff change.

  4. Undergraduate Understanding of Climate Change: The Influences of College Major and Environmental Group Membership on Survey Knowledge Scores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huxster, Joanna K.; Uribe-Zarain, Ximena; Kempton, Willett

    2015-01-01

    A survey covering the scientific and social aspects of climate change was administered to examine U.S. undergraduate student mental models, and compare knowledge between groups based on major and environmental group membership. A Knowledge Score (scale 0-35, mean score = 17.84) was generated for respondents at two, central East Coast, U.S.…

  5. Linkage disequilibrium and population structure in Fragaria chiloensis revealed by SSR markers transferred from commercial strawberry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felipe Alberto Oñate

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The Chilean strawberry [Fragaria chiloensis (L. Mill.] is the maternal progenitor of the commercial strawberry (Fragaria ´ ananassa Duch., which is characterized by fruits with high organoleptic quality and is well-suited to areas where drought and salinity represent a constraint on crop growth and productivity. We examined the patterns of linkage disequilibrium, genetic diversity and population structure among 54 accessions of F. chiloensis to understand the genetic basis of this species. We used a core microsatellite marker set (n = 95 from a consensus linkage map of strawberry. A transferability rate of 82.1% (78/95 was found, and 38 markers were selected for this study. The SSR primers produced a total of 259 alleles, which varied between 112 and 342 bp. Lower genetic diversity at the species level (HE = 0.17, Shannon’s index = 0.28 was found compared to previous studies of this species. No climatic region pattern for SSR diversity was observed. Structure analysis suggests that the accessions are grouped into three significantly differentiated clusters. Pairwise estimates of φST indicated a low degree of differentiation between the three genetic groups (φST = 0.023 to 0.06. These groups are in concordance with potential glacial refugia in the region, with many accessions being an admixture of them.

  6. Landscape linkages and biodiversity in European landscapes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jongman, R.H.G.

    2004-01-01

    Linear features are structuring landscape elements. We change our landscapes and rebuild them into new linkages, and landscapes are even constructed around these linkages. Landscape linkages are important for species migration and dispersal on a large scale and a small scale: storks, bats and

  7. Climate and the Carbon Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manley, Jim

    2017-04-01

    Climate and the Carbon Cycle EOS3a Science in tomorrow's classroom Students, like too much of the American public, are largely unaware or apathetic to the changes in world climate and the impact that these changes have for life on Earth. A study conducted by Michigan State University and published in 2011 by Science Daily titled 'What carbon cycle? College students lack scientific literacy, study finds'. This study relates how 'most college students in the United States do not grasp the scientific basis of the carbon cycle - an essential skill in understanding the causes and consequences of climate change.' The study authors call for a new approach to teaching about climate. What if teachers better understood vital components of Earth's climate system and were able to impart his understanding to their students? What if students based their responses to the information taught not on emotion, but on a deeper understanding of the forces driving climate change, their analysis of the scientific evidence and in the context of earth system science? As a Middle School science teacher, I have been given the opportunity to use a new curriculum within TERC's EarthLabs collection, Climate and the Carbon Cycle, to awaken those brains and assist my students in making personal lifestyle choices based on what they had learned. In addition, with support from TERC and The University of Texas Institute for Geophysics I joined others to begin training other teachers on how to implement this curriculum in their classrooms to expose their students to our changing climate. Through my poster, I will give you (1) a glimpse into the challenges faced by today's science teachers in communicating the complicated, but ever-deepening understanding of the linkages between natural and human-driven factors on climate; (2) introduce you to a new module in the EarthLabs curriculum designed to expose teachers and students to global scientific climate data and instrumentation; and (3) illustrate how

  8. From Enclave to Linkage Economies?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Michael W.

    If African developing countries are to benefit fully from the current boom in foreign direct investment (FDI) in extractives (i.e. mining and oil/gas), it is essential that the foreign investors foster linkages to the local economy. Traditionally, extractive FDI in Africa has been seen....... At the same time, local African enterprises are eager to, and increasingly capable of, linking up to the foreign investors in order to expand their activities and acquire technology, skills and market access. The changing strategies of MNCs and the improving capabilities of African enterprises offer new...... opportunities for governments and donors to mobilize extractive FDI for development goals. This paper seeks to take stock of what we know about the state of and driving forces of linkage formation in South Sahel Africa extractives based on a review of the extant literature. The paper argues that while MNCs...

  9. Climate and Southern Africa's Water-Energy-Food Nexus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conway, D.; Osborn, T.; Dorling, S.; Ringler, C.; Lankford, B.; Dalin, C.; Thurlow, J.; Zhu, T.; Deryng, D.; Landman, W.; Archer van Garderen, E.; Krueger, T.; Lebek, K.

    2014-12-01

    Numerous challenges coalesce to make Southern Africa emblematic of the connections between climate and the water-energy-food nexus. Rainfall and river flows in the region show high levels of variability across a range of spatial and temporal scales. Physical and socioeconomic exposure to climate variability and change is high, for example, the contribution of electricity produced from hydroelectric sources is over 30% in Madagascar and Zimbabwe and almost 100% in the DRC, Lesotho, Malawi, and Zambia. The region's economy is closely linked with that of the rest of the African continent and climate-sensitive food products are an important item of trade. Southern Africa's population is concentrated in regions exposed to high levels of hydro-meteorological variability, and will increase rapidly over the next four decades. The capacity to manage the effects of climate variability tends, however, to be low. Moreover, with climate change annual precipitation levels, soil moisture and runoff are likely to decrease and rising temperatures will increase evaporative demand. Despite high levels of hydro-meteorological variability, the sectoral and cross-sectoral water-energy-food linkages with climate in Southern Africa have not been considered in detail. Lack of data and questionable reliability are compounded by complex dynamic relationships. We review the role of climate in Southern Africa's nexus, complemented by empirical analysis of national level data on climate, water resources, crop and energy production, and economic activity. Our aim is to examine the role of climate variability as a driver of production fluctuations in the nexus, and to improve understanding of the magnitude and temporal dimensions of their interactions. We first consider national level exposure of food, water and energy production to climate in aggregate economic terms and then examine the linkages between interannual and multi-year climate variability and economic activity, focusing on food and

  10. Understanding the dynamics in distribution of invasive alien plant species under predicted climate change in Western Himalaya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thapa, Sunil; Chitale, Vishwas; Rijal, Srijana Joshi; Bisht, Neha; Shrestha, Bharat Babu

    2018-01-01

    Invasive alien plant species (IAPS) can pose severe threats to biodiversity and stability of native ecosystems, therefore, predicting the distribution of the IAPS plays a crucial role in effective planning and management of ecosystems. In the present study, we use Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modelling approach to predict the potential of distribution of eleven IAPS under future climatic conditions under RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 in part of Kailash sacred landscape region in Western Himalaya. Based on the model predictions, distribution of most of these invasive plants is expected to expand under future climatic scenarios, which might pose a serious threat to the native ecosystems through competition for resources in the study area. Native scrublands and subtropical needle-leaved forests will be the most affected ecosystems by the expansion of these IAPS. The present study is first of its kind in the Kailash Sacred Landscape in the field of invasive plants and the predictions of potential distribution under future climatic conditions from our study could help decision makers in planning and managing these forest ecosystems effectively.

  11. Genomewide Linkage Screen for Waldenström Macroglobulinemia Susceptibility Loci in High-Risk Families

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMaster, Mary L.; Goldin, Lynn R.; Bai, Yan; Ter-Minassian, Monica; Boehringer, Stefan; Giambarresi, Therese R.; Vasquez, Linda G.; Tucker, Margaret A.

    2006-01-01

    Waldenström macroglobulinemia (WM), a distinctive subtype of non-Hodgkin lymphoma that features overproduction of immunoglobulin M (IgM), clearly has a familial component; however, no susceptibility genes have yet been identified. We performed a genomewide linkage analysis in 11 high-risk families with WM that were informative for linkage, for a total of 122 individuals with DNA samples, including 34 patients with WM and 10 patients with IgM monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (IgM MGUS). We genotyped 1,058 microsatellite markers (average spacing 3.5 cM), performed both nonparametric and parametric linkage analysis, and computed both two-point and multipoint linkage statistics. The strongest evidence of linkage was found on chromosomes 1q and 4q when patients with WM and with IgM MGUS were both considered affected; nonparametric linkage scores were 2.5 (P=.0089) and 3.1 (P=.004), respectively. Other locations suggestive of linkage were found on chromosomes 3 and 6. Results of two-locus linkage analysis were consistent with independent effects. The findings from this first linkage analysis of families at high risk for WM represent important progress toward identifying gene(s) that modulate susceptibility to WM and toward understanding its complex etiology. PMID:16960805

  12. U.S. Geological Survey climate and land use change science strategy: a framework for understanding and responding to global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkett, Virginia R.; Kirtland, David A.; Taylor, Ione L.; Belnap, Jayne; Cronin, Thomas M.; Dettinger, Michael D.; Frazier, Eldrich L.; Haines, John W.; Loveland, Thomas R.; Milly, Paul C.D.; ,; ,; ,; Robert, S.; Maule, Alec G.; McMahon, Gerard; Striegl, Robert G.

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), a nonregulatory Federal science agency with national scope and responsibilities, is uniquely positioned to serve the Nation’s needs in understanding and responding to global change, including changes in climate, water availability, sea level, land use and land cover, ecosystems, and global biogeochemical cycles. Global change is among the most challenging and formidable issues confronting our Nation and society. Scientists agree that global environmental changes during this century will have far-reaching societal implications (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007; U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2009). In the face of these challenges, the Nation can benefit greatly by using natural science information in decisionmaking.

  13. Understanding the impact of changes in land-use/land-cover and atmospheric dust loading and their coupling upon climate change in the NEESPI study domain drylands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sokolik, I.; Darmenova, K.; Darmenov, A.; Xi, X.; Shao, Y.; Marticorena, B.; Bergametti, G.

    2009-04-01

    The Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI) Science Plan identifies atmospheric aerosols and pollutions and their impacts on and interactions with the Earth systems (and terrestrial ecosystem dynamics in particular) as a cross-cutting topic of special interest. Wind-blown mineral dust, being an important atmospheric constituent in the NEESPI drylands, can exert strong radiative forcing upon the regional climate and cause adverse impacts on human and ecosystems health. The impacts of dust storms are not only regional, but may affect areas thousands of kilometers from their source, making interactions between climate change, land use and dust aerosols globally relevant. Given the intimate coupling between the land processes and wind-blown atmospheric dust and their importance in the climate system, an improved understanding of how land-use/land-cover changes affect Asian dust and associated feedbacks is needed to make assessments of climate change more realistic. To improve the ability to predict impacts of dust on the climate and environment, we have been developing a coupled regional dust modeling system for Central and East Asia. This includes implementation of a new dust module DuMo into the NCAR Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model as well as a coupled treatment of dust aerosol interactions with atmospheric radiation. The dust module DuMo includes two different state-of-the art schemes that explicitly account for land properties (including vegetation and soil geomorphology and moisture) and meteorology, and, thus, improves modeling capability. The focus of this talk will be on the impact of atmospheric dust on the surface energy balance and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR). Both processes play a key role in the ecosystem functioning as well as overall in land-atmosphere interactions, but they are rarely considered in an integrated fashion.

  14. Privacy preserving interactive record linkage (PPIRL).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kum, Hye-Chung; Krishnamurthy, Ashok; Machanavajjhala, Ashwin; Reiter, Michael K; Ahalt, Stanley

    2014-01-01

    Record linkage to integrate uncoordinated databases is critical in biomedical research using Big Data. Balancing privacy protection against the need for high quality record linkage requires a human-machine hybrid system to safely manage uncertainty in the ever changing streams of chaotic Big Data. In the computer science literature, private record linkage is the most published area. It investigates how to apply a known linkage function safely when linking two tables. However, in practice, the linkage function is rarely known. Thus, there are many data linkage centers whose main role is to be the trusted third party to determine the linkage function manually and link data for research via a master population list for a designated region. Recently, a more flexible computerized third-party linkage platform, Secure Decoupled Linkage (SDLink), has been proposed based on: (1) decoupling data via encryption, (2) obfuscation via chaffing (adding fake data) and universe manipulation; and (3) minimum information disclosure via recoding. We synthesize this literature to formalize a new framework for privacy preserving interactive record linkage (PPIRL) with tractable privacy and utility properties and then analyze the literature using this framework. Human-based third-party linkage centers for privacy preserving record linkage are the accepted norm internationally. We find that a computer-based third-party platform that can precisely control the information disclosed at the micro level and allow frequent human interaction during the linkage process, is an effective human-machine hybrid system that significantly improves on the linkage center model both in terms of privacy and utility.

  15. Global observation of EKC hypothesis for CO2, SOx and NOx emission: A policy understanding for climate change mitigation in Bangladesh

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Danesh Miah, Md.; Farhad Hossain Masum, Md.; Koike, Masao

    2010-01-01

    Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis is critical to understanding the developmental path of a nation in relation to its environment. How the effects of economic development processes dictate environmental changes can be found through the study of EKC. To understand the EKC phenomena for climate change, this study was undertaken by reviewing the available literature. As CO 2 , SO x and NO x are the significant greenhouse gases (GHG) responsible for global warming, thus leading to climate change, the study focused on those GHGs for EKC consideration. With an understanding of the different EKC trajectories, an attempt was made to determine the implications for the economic development of Bangladesh in regards to the EKC. It was shown that EKC for CO 2 was following a monotonous straight line in most cases. SO x were shown to follow the full trajectory of the EKC in most situations and NO x was shown the hope only for the developed countries getting the low-income turning point. The type of economic policy that Bangladesh should follow in regards to the discussed pollutants and sources is also revealed. From these discussions, contributions to policy stimulation in Bangladesh are likely to be made.

  16. Fossil pollen analysis of U-Pb-dated speleothems: a new approach to understanding Pliocene terrestrial climate evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sniderman, K.; Woodhead, J. D.; Porch, N.

    2013-12-01

    The nature of terrestrial environments in the Southern Hemisphere during the warm Pliocene is poorly known. This is not only because there are few published fossil records, but also because many of the existing records have very limited age control. For example, in Australia, the ages of most putative 'mid-Pliocene' fossil pollen records are based solely on biostratigraphic correlation. These correlations for the most part do not have the resolution to differentiate late Miocene from early Pliocene environments, let alone to pinpoint a Myrtaceae, with no sign of extensive cheonopod shrubland. Climate reconstructions based on presence of taxa now absent from the Nullarbor suggest that mean annual rainfall and/or summer rainfall were 50-100% higher than today. Second, vegetation near the Miocene/Pliocene boundary (at c. 5.5 Ma) was dominated by Gyrostemonaceae and Casuarinaceae. We interpret this transition from earliest Pliocene to mid-late Pliocene vegetation as an increase in biological productivity, from possibly very sparse woodland to forest, presumably in response to increased effective moisture in the mid-late Pliocene. Hence climate evolution within the Pliocene was substantial enough to drive complete biome turnover. Explanations of the mechanisms that drove Pliocene warmth thus need to explain not only why the Pliocene warm interval was terminated by Pleistocene cooling, but also why the mid-late Pliocene differed substantially from the earliest Pliocene. Our novel use of U/Pb dating of speleothem pollen records demonstrates that previous syntheses of 'mid-Pliocene' vegetation may, in regions with poor age control, have conflated biomes growing within different climatic regimes during different stages within the Pliocene.

  17. Linkages between ocean circulation, heat uptake and transient warming: a sensitivity study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfister, Patrik; Stocker, Thomas

    2016-04-01

    Transient global warming due to greenhouse gas radiative forcing is substantially reduced by ocean heat uptake (OHU). However, the fraction of equilibrium warming that is realized in transient climate model simulations differs strongly between models (Frölicher and Paynter 2015). It has been shown that this difference is not only related to the magnitude of OHU, but also to the radiative response the OHU causes, measured by the OHU efficacy (Winton et al., 2010). This efficacy is strongly influenced by the spatial pattern of the OHU and its changes (Rose et al. 2014, Winton et al. 2013), predominantly caused by changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Even in absence of external greenhouse gas forcing, an AMOC weakening causes a radiative imbalance at the top of the atmosphere (Peltier and Vettoretti, 2014), inducing in a net warming of the Earth System. We investigate linkages between those findings by performing both freshwater and greenhouse gas experiments in an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity. To assess the sensitivity of the results to ocean and atmospheric transport as well as climate sensitivity, we use an ensemble of model versions, systematically varying key parameters. We analyze circulation changes and radiative adjustments in conjunction with traditional warming metrics such as the transient climate response and the equilibrium climate sensitivity. This aims to improve the understanding of the influence of ocean circulation and OHU on transient climate change, and of the relevance of different metrics for describing this influence. References: Frölicher, T. L. and D.J. Paynter (2015), Extending the relationship between global warming and cumulative carbon emissions to multi-millennial timescales, Environ. Res. Lett., 10, 075022 Peltier, W. R., and G. Vettoretti (2014), Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillations predicted in a comprehensive model of glacial climate: A "kicked" salt oscillator in the Atlantic, Geophys. Res

  18. The Data Platform for Climate Research and Action: Introducing Climate Watch

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hennig, R. J.; Ge, M.; Friedrich, J.; Lebling, K.; Carlock, G.; Arcipowska, A.; Mangan, E.; Biru, H.; Tankou, A.; Chaudhury, M.

    2017-12-01

    The Paris Agreement, adopted through Decision 1/CP.21, brings all nations together to take on ambitious efforts to combat climate change. Open access to climate data supporting climate research, advancing knowledge, and informing decision making is key to encourage and strengthen efforts of stakeholders at all levels to address and respond to effects of climate change. Climate Watch is a robust online data platform developed in response to the urgent needs of knowledge and tools to empower climate research and action, including those of researchers, policy makers, the private sector, civil society, and all other non-state actors. Building on the rapid growing technology of open data and information sharing, Climate Watch is equipped with extensive amount of climate data, informative visualizations, concise yet efficient user interface, and connection to resources users need to gather insightful information on national and global progress towards delivering on the objective of the Convention and the Paris Agreement. Climate Watch brings together hundreds of quantitative and qualitative indicators for easy explore, visualize, compare, download at global, national, and sectoral levels: Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for more than 190 countries over the1850-2014 time period, covering all seven Kyoto Gases following IPCC source/sink categories; Structured information on over 150 NDCs facilitating the clarity, understanding and transparency of countries' contributions to address climate change; Over 6500 identified linkages between climate actions in NDCs across the 169 targets of the sustainable development goals (SDG); Over 200 indicators describing low carbon pathways from models and scenarios by integrated assessment models (IAMs) and national sources; and Data on vulnerability and risk, policies, finance, and many more. Climate Watch platform is developed as part of the broader efforts within the World Resources Institute, the NDC Partnership, and in collaboration

  19. An Integrative Approach to Understand the Climatic-Hydrological Process: A Case Study of Yarkand River, Northwest China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianhua Xu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Taking the Yarkand River as an example, this paper conducted an integrative approach combining the Durbin-Watson statistic test (DWST, multiple linear regression (MLR, wavelet analysis (WA, coefficient of determination (CD, and Akaike information criterion (AIC to analyze the climatic-hydrological process of inland river, Northwest China from a multitime scale perspective. The main findings are as follows. (1 The hydrologic and climatic variables, that is, annual runoff (AR, annual average temperature, (AAT and annual precipitation (AP, are stochastic and, no significant autocorrelation. (2 The variation patterns of runoff, temperature, and precipitation were scale dependent in time. AR, AAT, and AP basically present linear trends at 16-year and 32-year scales, but they show nonlinear fluctuations at 2-year and 4-year scales. (3 The relationship between AR with AAT and AP was simulated by the multiple linear regression equation (MLRE based on wavelet analysis at each time scale. But the simulated effect at a larger time scale is better than that at a smaller time scale.

  20. The past as prelude to the future for understanding 21st-century climate effects on Rocky Mountain Trout

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isaak, Daniel J.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Todd, Andrew S.; Al-chokhachy, Robert; Roberts, James; Kershner, Jeffrey L.; Fausch, Kurt D.; Hostetler, Steven W.

    2012-01-01

    Bioclimatic models predict large reductions in native trout across the Rocky Mountains in the 21st century but lack details about how changes will occur. Through five case histories across the region, we explore how a changing climate has been affecting streams and the potential consequences for trout. Monitoring records show trends in temperature and hydrographs consistent with a warming climate in recent decades. Biological implications include upstream shifts in thermal habitats, risk of egg scour, increased wildfire disturbances, and declining summer habitat volumes. The importance of these factors depends on the context, but temperature increases are most relevant where population boundaries are mediated by thermal constraints. Summer flow declines and wildfires will be important where trout populations are fragmented and constrained to small refugia. A critical information gap is evidence documenting how populations are adjusting to long-term habitat trends, so biological monitoring is a priority. Biological, temperature, and discharge data from monitoring networks could be used to develop accurate vulnerability assessments that provide information regarding where conservation actions would best improve population resilience. Even with better information, future uncertainties will remain large due to unknowns regarding Earth's ultimate warming trajectory and how effects translate across scales. Maintaining or increasing the size of habitats could provide a buffer against these uncertainties.

  1. Improvement of isotope-based climate reconstructions in Patagonia through a better understanding of climate influences on isotopic fractionation in tree rings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavergne, Aliénor; Daux, Valérie; Villalba, Ricardo; Pierre, Monique; Stievenard, Michel; Srur, Ana Marina

    2017-02-01

    Very few studies of stable isotopes exist across the Andes in South America. This study is the first presenting annually resolved chronologies of both δ18 O and δ13 C in Nothofagus pumilio and Fitzroya cupressoides trees from Northern Patagonia. Interannual variability in δ18 O and δ13 C was assessed over the period 1952-2011. Based on these chronologies, we determined the primary climatic controls on stable isotopes and tree physiological responses to changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations (ca), temperature and humidity. Changes in specific intrinsic water use efficiency (iWUE) were inferred from variations in δ13 C whereas the effects of CO2 increase on stomatal conductance were explored using δ18 O. Over the 60-year period, iWUE increased significantly (by ca. 25%) in coincidence with the rise of ca. The two species appear to have different strategies of gas-exchange. Whereas iWUE variations were likely driven by both stomatal conductance and photosynthetic assimilation rates in F. cupressoides, they were largely related to stomatal conductance in N. pumilio. After removing the low-frequency trends related to increasing ca, significant relationships between δ13 C and summer temperatures were recorded for both species. However, δ13 C variations in F. cupressoides were more strongly influenced by summer temperatures than in N. pumilio. Our results advocate for an indirect effect of summer temperatures on stable isotope ratios, which is mostly influenced by sunlight radiation in F. cupressoides and relative humidity/soil moisture in N. pumilio. δ13 C variations in F. cupressoides were spatially correlated to a large area south of 35°S in southern South America. These promising results encourage the use of δ13 C variations in F. cupressoides for reconstructing past variations in temperature and large-scale circulation indexes such as the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) in the Southern Hemisphere.

  2. Climate change and species interactions: ways forward.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angert, Amy L; LaDeau, Shannon L; Ostfeld, Richard S

    2013-09-01

    With ongoing and rapid climate change, ecologists are being challenged to predict how individual species will change in abundance and distribution, how biotic communities will change in structure and function, and the consequences of these climate-induced changes for ecosystem functioning. It is now well documented that indirect effects of climate change on species abundances and distributions, via climatic effects on interspecific interactions, can outweigh and even reverse the direct effects of climate. However, a clear framework for incorporating species interactions into projections of biological change remains elusive. To move forward, we suggest three priorities for the research community: (1) utilize tractable study systems as case studies to illustrate possible outcomes, test processes highlighted by theory, and feed back into modeling efforts; (2) develop a robust analytical framework that allows for better cross-scale linkages; and (3) determine over what time scales and for which systems prediction of biological responses to climate change is a useful and feasible goal. We end with a list of research questions that can guide future research to help understand, and hopefully mitigate, the negative effects of climate change on biota and the ecosystem services they provide. © 2013 New York Academy of Sciences.

  3. Climate Informatics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monteleoni, Claire; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Alexander, Francis J.; Niculescu-Mizil, Alexandru; Steinhaeuser, Karsten; Tippett, Michael; Banerjee, Arindam; Blumenthal, M. Benno; Ganguly, Auroop R.; Smerdon, Jason E.; hide

    2013-01-01

    The impacts of present and potential future climate change will be one of the most important scientific and societal challenges in the 21st century. Given observed changes in temperature, sea ice, and sea level, improving our understanding of the climate system is an international priority. This system is characterized by complex phenomena that are imperfectly observed and even more imperfectly simulated. But with an ever-growing supply of climate data from satellites and environmental sensors, the magnitude of data and climate model output is beginning to overwhelm the relatively simple tools currently used to analyze them. A computational approach will therefore be indispensable for these analysis challenges. This chapter introduces the fledgling research discipline climate informatics: collaborations between climate scientists and machine learning researchers in order to bridge this gap between data and understanding. We hope that the study of climate informatics will accelerate discovery in answering pressing questions in climate science.

  4. Understanding the effects of bathymetry, wave climate, and coastline shape on wave energy delivery to rocky coastlines using machine learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldstein, E. B.; Limber, P. W.; Murray, A.; Adams, P. N.

    2013-12-01

    Coastal headlands protruding seaward modify the incoming wave field. Notably, wave refraction over bathymetry associated with a subaerial headland results in the focusing of wave energy on headlands, hypothesized to be a primary mechanism of headland erosion and a control on planform coastline evolution. In this contribution we examine the factors that control wave energy delivery, specifically the impact of mean seabed slope, headland amplitude and wave climate (i.e. height, period, offshore wave direction). This study is a direct extension of a recently developed analytical model of rocky coastline evolution (Limber et al., submitted; Limber and Murray, submitted). We utilize a wave ray tracing model to determine the mean wave power density delivered to protruding rocky headlands of various size over a range of wave conditions. With this large model data set, we employ genetic programming (a machine learning technique) to develop a predictive equation for mean wave power delivered to a headland as a function of the wave climate and headland size. Preliminary results from the coupled wave ray-machine learning analysis show headland averaged wave power density scales linearly with cross-shore headland amplitude and is proportional to offshore wave energy density, wave period, and the offshore wave approach angle. However, relative to headland amplitude, the wave characteristics exert significantly stronger control on power delivery. The new relationship can be modified to reflect an ';effective' wave climate that describes the long-term wave energy delivery to the coast. This term can be estimated using historic wave buoy data. From purely dimensional grounds, previous work suggested that wave power density and the erosion rate of cliffed margins are linearly related. The constant that links power density and cliff retreat, however, is difficult to quantify. On coasts with known erosion rates, we will use the effective long-term wave energy delivery to determine

  5. Understanding Climate Change Impacts in a Cholera Endemic Megacity: Disease Trends, Hydroclimatic Indicators and Near Future-Term Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akanda, A. S. S.; Hasan, M. A.; Serman, E. A.; Jutla, A.; Huq, A.; Colwell, R. R.

    2015-12-01

    The last three decades of surveillance data shows a drastic increase of cholera prevalence in the largest cholera-endemic city in the world - Dhaka, Bangladesh. While an endemic trend is getting stronger in the dry season, the post-monsoon season shows increased variability and is epidemic in nature. The pre-monsoon dry season is becoming the dominant cholera season of the year, followed by monsoon flood related propagation in later months of the year. Although the heavily populated and rapidly urbanizing Dhaka region has experienced noticeable shifts in pre monsoon temperature and precipitation patterns and subsequent monsoon variations, to date, there has not been any systematic study on linking the long-term disease trends with observed changes in hydroclimatic indicators. Here, we focus on the past 30-year dynamics of urban cholera prevalence in Dhaka with changes in climatic or anthropogenic forcings to develop projections for the next 30-year period. We focus on the dry and the wet season indicators individually, and develop trends of maximum rainfall intensity, lowest rainfall totals in the pre-monsoon period, number of consecutive dry days, number of wet days, and number of rainy days with greater than 500mm rainfall using a recently developed gridded data product - and compare with regional hydrology, flooding, water usage, changes in distribution systems, population growth and density in urban settlements, and frequency of natural disasters. We then use a bias correction method to develop the next 30 years projections of CMIP5 Regional Climate Model outputs and impacts on cholera prevalence using a probabilistic forecasting approach.

  6. The VULCAN Project: Toward a better understanding of the vulnerability of soil organic matter to climate change in permafrost ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plaza, C.; Schuur, E.; Maestre, F. T.

    2015-12-01

    Despite much recent research, high uncertainty persists concerning the extent to which global warming influences the rate of permafrost soil organic matter loss and how this affects the functioning of permafrost ecosystems and the net transfer of C to the atmosphere. This uncertainty continues, at least in part, because the processes that protect soil organic matter from decomposition and stabilize fresh plant-derived organic materials entering the soil are largely unknown. The objective of the VULCAN (VULnerability of soil organic CArboN to climate change in permafrost and dryland ecosystems) project is to gain a deeper insight into these processes, especially at the molecular level, and to explore potential implications in terms of permafrost ecosystem functioning and feedback to climate change. We will capitalize on a globally unique ecosystem warming experiment in Alaska, the C in Permafrost Experimental Heating Research (CiPEHR) project, which is monitoring soil temperature and moisture, thaw depth, water table depth, plant productivity, phenology, and nutrient status, and soil CO2 and CH4 fluxes. Soil samples have been collected from the CiPEHR experiment from strategic depths, depending on thaw depth, and allow us to examine effects related to freeze/thaw, waterlogging, and organic matter relocation along the soil profile. We will use physical fractionation methods to separate soil organic matter pools characterized by different preservation mechanisms of aggregation and mineral interaction. We will determine organic C and total N content, transformation rates, turnovers, ages, and structural composition of soil organic matter fractions by elemental analysis, stable and radioactive isotope techniques, and nuclear magnetic resonance tools. Acknowledgements: This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement No. 654132. Web site: http://vulcan.comule.com

  7. ORACLES and LASIC: New observational campaigns to improve understanding of the effects of Southern African Biomass Burning Aerosol on Radiation, Clouds and Climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, R.; Redemann, J.; Zuidema, P.

    2016-12-01

    Southern Africa produces almost a third of the Earth's biomass burning (BB) aerosol particles. Particles lofted into the mid-troposphere are transported westward over the South-East Atlantic, home to one of the three permanent subtropical Stratocumulus (Sc) cloud decks in the world. The stratocumulus "climate radiators" are critical to the regional and global climate system. They interact with dense layers of BB aerosols that initially overlay the cloud deck, but later subside and are mixed into the clouds. These interactions include adjustments to aerosol-induced solar heating and microphysical effects, and their global representation in climate models remains one of the largest uncertainties in estimates of future climate. Hence, new observations over the SE Atlantic have significant implications for global climate change scenarios. ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) is a five-year investigation between 2015 and 2019 with three Intensive Observation Periods (IOP), recently funded by the NASA Earth-Venture Suborbital Program. ORACLES is designed to improve understanding of aerosol-radiation-cloud-climate interactions in the SE Atlantic. These interactions will be studied using aircraft observations from the NASA P-3 and ER-2 aircraft, which will provide key aerosol and cloud property information to improve process and large-scale models. LASIC (Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds) is a DOE deployment of the ARM Mobile Facility to Ascension Island (June 2016 - October 2017) that will provide ground-based in situ and remote sensing observations of aerosols and clouds from Ascension Island (8S, 14W). BB aerosols from Africa frequently advect to Ascension Island where they mix down into the trade wind boundary layer and interact with clouds. This presentation will describe "first-light" observations from the 2016 ORACLES and LASIC deployments, focusing upon the absorptive and cloud nucleating properties of aerosols

  8. Remote sensing and climate data as a key for understanding fasciolosis transmission in the Andes: review and update of an ongoing interdisciplinary project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Màrius V. Fuentes

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available Fasciolosis caused by Fasciola hepatica in various South American countries located on the slopes of the Andes has been recognized as an important public health problem. However, the importance of this zoonotic hepatic parasite was neglected until the last decade. Countries such as Peru and Bolivia are considered to be hyperendemic areas for human and animal fasciolosis, and other countries such as Chile, Ecuador, Colombia and Venezuela are also affected. At the beginning of the 1990s a multidisciplinary project was launched with the aim to shed light on the problems related to this parasitic disease in the Northern Bolivian Altiplano. A few years later, a geographic information system (GIS was incorporated into this multidisciplinary project analysing the epidemiology of human and animal fasciolosis in this South American Andean region. Various GIS projects were developed in some Andean regions using climatic data, climatic forecast indices and remote sensing data. Step by step, all these GIS projects concerning the forecast of the fasciolosis transmission risk in the Andean mountain range were revised and in some cases updated taking into account new data. The first of these projects was developed on a regional scale for the central Chilean regions and the proposed model was validated on a local scale in the Northern Bolivian Altiplano. This validated mixed model, based on both fasciolosis climatic forecast indices and normalized difference vegetation index values from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer satellite sensor, was extrapolated to other human and/or animal endemic areas of Peru and Ecuador. The resulting fasciolosis risk maps make it possible to show the known human endemic areas of, mainly, the Peruvian Altiplano, Cajamarca and Mantaro Peruvian valleys, and some valleys of the Ecuadorian Cotopaxi province. Nevertheless, more climate and remote sensing data, as well as more accurate epidemiological reports, have to be

  9. Support for research towards understanding the population health vulnerabilities to vector-borne diseases: increasing resilience under climate change conditions in Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramirez, Bernadette

    2017-12-12

    Diseases transmitted to humans by vectors account for 17% of all infectious diseases and remain significant public health problems. Through the years, great strides have been taken towards combatting vector-borne diseases (VBDs), most notably through large scale and coordinated control programmes, which have contributed to the decline of the global mortality attributed to VBDs. However, with environmental changes, including climate change, the impact on VBDs is anticipated to be significant, in terms of VBD-related hazards, vulnerabilities and exposure. While there is growing awareness on the vulnerability of the African continent to VBDs in the context of climate change, there is still a paucity of research being undertaken in this area, and impeding the formulation of evidence-based health policy change. One way in which the gap in knowledge and evidence can be filled is for donor institutions to support research in this area. The collaboration between the WHO Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases (TDR) and the International Centre for Research and Development (IDRC) builds on more than 10 years of partnership in research capacity-building in the field of tropical diseases. From this partnership was born yet another research initiative on VBDs and the impact of climate change in the Sahel and sub-Saharan Africa. This paper lists the projects supported under this research initiative and provides a brief on some of the policy and good practice recommendations emerging from the ongoing implementation of the research projects. Data generated from the research initiative are expected to be uptaken by stakeholders (including communities, policy makers, public health practitioners and other relevant partners) to contribute to a better understanding of the impacts of social, environmental and climate change on VBDs(i.e. the nature of the hazard, vulnerabilities, exposure), and improve the ability of African countries to adapt to and reduce the

  10. Confirmatory linkage study of hypochondroplasia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hecht, J.T.; Herrera, C.; Greenhaw, G.A. [Univ. of Texas Medical School, Houston, TX (United States)] [and others

    1994-09-01

    Hypochondroplasia is an autosomal dominant form of disproportionate short stature disorder that has clinical and radiographic findings similar to but milder than achondroplasia. Based on these findings it has been suggested that achondroplasia and hypochondroplasia are allelic conditions. We and others have mapped the achondroplasia locus to telomeric region of chromosome 4. Tested linkage to 4p markers in 6 hypochondroplasia families and a maximum LOD score of 1.7 at {theta} = 0 was found for IUDA. Here we report the results of a linkage study in 4 multigenerational families with hypochondroplasia using 7 short tandem repeat markers (D4S127, D4S412, D4S43, D4S115, IUDA, D4S227, D4S169) from the short arm of chromosome 4. These families have been well characterized and show the typical clinical and radiographic features of hypochondroplasia. One family was Afro-American, one Hispanic and two were Caucasian. We found a maximum multipoint LOD score of 2.9 at D4S115. The results of this study provide confirmatory evidence that achondroplasia and hypochondroplasia map to the same chromosomal location and suggests that they are indeed allelic conditions.

  11. Understanding Litter Input Controls on Soil Organic Matter Turnover and Formation are Essential for Improving Carbon-Climate Feedback Predictions for Arctic, Tundra Ecosystems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wallenstein, Matthew [Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States)

    2017-12-05

    The Arctic region stored vast amounts of carbon (C) in soils over thousands of years because decomposition has been limited by cold, wet conditions. Arctic soils now contain roughly as much C that is contained in all other soils across the globe combined. However, climate warming could unlock this oil C as decomposition accelerates and permafrost thaws. In addition to temperature-driven acceleration of decomposition, several additional processes could either counteract or augment warming-induced SOM losses. For example, increased plant growth under a warmer climate will increase organic matter inputs to soils, which could fuel further soil decomposition by microbes, but will also increase the production of new SOM. Whether Arctic ecosystems store or release carbon in the future depends in part on the balance between these two counteracting processes. By differentiating SOM decomposition and formation and understanding the drivers of these processes, we will better understand how these systems function. We did not find evidence of priming under current conditions, defined as an increase in the decomposition of native SOM stocks. This suggests that decomposition is unlikely to be further accelerated through this mechanism. We did find that decomposition of native SOM did occur when nitrogen was added to these soils, suggesting that nitrogen limits decomposition in these systems. Our results highlight the resilience and extraordinary C storage capacity of these soils, and suggest shrub expansion may partially mitigate C losses from decomposition of old SOM as Arctic soils warm.

  12. Evolution and current state of our understanding of the role played in the climate system by land surface processes in semi-arid regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholson, Sharon E.

    2015-10-01

    The role of the land surface in climate and weather has been a major research focus since the 1970s. Since that time our understanding of the issue has greatly changed and many new themes in several disciplines are being considered. This article summarizes the changes in our understanding that have taken place in research on this topic and reviews principally papers that have appeared in the last two decades. Several other papers provide comprehensive reviews of literature that appeared prior to that time. The major changes that have occurred include 1) more sophisticated and rigorous analysis of desertification, 2) increased emphasis on hydrological processes, including the role of groundwater, 3) use of multi-model ensembles and regional models, 4) the emergence of the domain of ecohydrology, with emphasis on detailed feedbacks between water availability and vegetation, 5) examination of the hypothesis that vegetation feedback can produce abrupt climate change, 6) emphasis on the impacts on convective or synoptic-scale systems, and 7) consideration of the impact of aerosols, including the Saharan Air Layer. With the exception of desertification, each of these topics is reviewed.

  13. Chinese Tourists’ Perceptions of Climate Change and Mitigation Behavior: An Application of Norm Activation Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guiqiang Qiao

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available It is well recognized that tourism development is a prominent contributor to climate change, but is also a “victim” of climate change. Therefore, to mitigate climate change is of great importance for the sustainability of tourism. Yet extant studies regarding tourism and climate change tend to be dominated by a supply-side stance, albeit the core role of the tourist in the tourism industry. While researchers are increasingly adopting a tourist perspective, few seek to understand the linkage between climate change and tourists’ specific mitigation behaviors in a tourism context; this is especially so in China. This study investigates the impact of Chinese tourists’ perceptions of climate change on their mitigation behaviors based on norm activation theory. Drawing on 557 self-administrated questionnaires collected in China, it finds that tourists’ perceptions of climate change and perceived contribution of tourism to climate change both positively affect energy saving and carbon reduction behavior in tourism. Yet, compared with perceived contribution of tourism to climate change, tourists’ perceptions of climate change are found to be a much stronger predictor for energy saving and carbon reduction behavior. Therefore, it suggests that tourists’ perceptions of climate change in a general context is more strongly related to climate change mitigation behavior in tourism, calling for attention to go beyond the tourism context to alleviate the negative impacts of tourism on climate change.

  14. An introduction to recombination and linkage analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mcpeek, M.S. [Univ. of Chicago, IL (United States)

    1996-12-31

    With a garden as his laboratory, Mendel was able to discern basic probabilistic laws of heredity. Although it first appeared as a baffling exception to one of Mendel`s principles, the phenomenon of variable linkage between characters was soon recognized to be a powerful tool in the process of chromosome mapping and location of genes of interest. In this introduction, we first describe Mendel`s work and the subsequent discovery of linkage. Next we describe the apparent cause of variable linkage, namely recombination, and we introduce linkage analysis. 33 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs.

  15. Synthesis of deoxycytidine oligomers containing phosphorodithioate linkages

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grandas, Ana; Marshall, William S.; Nielsen, John

    1989-01-01

    Deoxydicytidine phosphoramidite, 4-chlorobenzylmercaptan and tetrazole reacted to form dinucleoside thiophosphite. Oxidation with sulfur yields phosphorodithioates which were used to synthesize pentadecadeoxyoligonucleotides containing nuclease resistant phosphorodithioate internucleotide linkages....

  16. Analyzing cloud base at local and regional scales to understand tropical montane cloud forest vulnerability to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. E. Van Beusekom

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The degree to which cloud immersion provides water in addition to rainfall, suppresses transpiration, and sustains tropical montane cloud forests (TMCFs during rainless periods is not well understood. Climate and land use changes represent a threat to these forests if cloud base altitude rises as a result of regional warming or deforestation. To establish a baseline for quantifying future changes in cloud base, we installed a ceilometer at 100 m altitude in the forest upwind of the TMCF that occupies an altitude range from ∼ 600 m to the peaks at 1100 m in the Luquillo Mountains of eastern Puerto Rico. Airport Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS ceilometer data, radiosonde data, and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO satellite data were obtained to investigate seasonal cloud base dynamics, altitude of the trade-wind inversion (TWI, and typical cloud thickness for the surrounding Caribbean region. Cloud base is rarely quantified near mountains, so these results represent a first look at seasonal and diurnal cloud base dynamics for the TMCF. From May 2013 to August 2016, cloud base was lowest during the midsummer dry season, and cloud bases were lower than the mountaintops as often in the winter dry season as in the wet seasons. The lowest cloud bases most frequently occurred at higher elevation than 600 m, from 740 to 964 m. The Luquillo forest low cloud base altitudes were higher than six other sites in the Caribbean by ∼ 200–600 m, highlighting the importance of site selection to measure topographic influence on cloud height. Proximity to the oceanic cloud system where shallow cumulus clouds are seasonally invariant in altitude and cover, along with local trade-wind orographic lifting and cloud formation, may explain the dry season low clouds. The results indicate that climate change threats to low-elevation TMCFs are not limited to the dry season; changes in synoptic

  17. Analyzing cloud base at local and regional scales to understand tropical montane cloud forest vulnerability to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Beusekom, Ashley E.; González, Grizelle; Scholl, Martha A.

    2017-01-01

    The degree to which cloud immersion provides water in addition to rainfall, suppresses transpiration, and sustains tropical montane cloud forests (TMCFs) during rainless periods is not well understood. Climate and land use changes represent a threat to these forests if cloud base altitude rises as a result of regional warming or deforestation. To establish a baseline for quantifying future changes in cloud base, we installed a ceilometer at 100 m altitude in the forest upwind of the TMCF that occupies an altitude range from ∼ 600 m to the peaks at 1100 m in the Luquillo Mountains of eastern Puerto Rico. Airport Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) ceilometer data, radiosonde data, and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) satellite data were obtained to investigate seasonal cloud base dynamics, altitude of the trade-wind inversion (TWI), and typical cloud thickness for the surrounding Caribbean region. Cloud base is rarely quantified near mountains, so these results represent a first look at seasonal and diurnal cloud base dynamics for the TMCF. From May 2013 to August 2016, cloud base was lowest during the midsummer dry season, and cloud bases were lower than the mountaintops as often in the winter dry season as in the wet seasons. The lowest cloud bases most frequently occurred at higher elevation than 600 m, from 740 to 964 m. The Luquillo forest low cloud base altitudes were higher than six other sites in the Caribbean by ∼ 200–600 m, highlighting the importance of site selection to measure topographic influence on cloud height. Proximity to the oceanic cloud system where shallow cumulus clouds are seasonally invariant in altitude and cover, along with local trade-wind orographic lifting and cloud formation, may explain the dry season low clouds. The results indicate that climate change threats to low-elevation TMCFs are not limited to the dry season; changes in synoptic-scale weather patterns

  18. Analyzing cloud base at local and regional scales to understand tropical montane cloud forest vulnerability to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Beusekom, Ashley E.; González, Grizelle; Scholl, Martha A.

    2017-06-01

    The degree to which cloud immersion provides water in addition to rainfall, suppresses transpiration, and sustains tropical montane cloud forests (TMCFs) during rainless periods is not well understood. Climate and land use changes represent a threat to these forests if cloud base altitude rises as a result of regional warming or deforestation. To establish a baseline for quantifying future changes in cloud base, we installed a ceilometer at 100 m altitude in the forest upwind of the TMCF that occupies an altitude range from ˜ 600 m to the peaks at 1100 m in the Luquillo Mountains of eastern Puerto Rico. Airport Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) ceilometer data, radiosonde data, and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) satellite data were obtained to investigate seasonal cloud base dynamics, altitude of the trade-wind inversion (TWI), and typical cloud thickness for the surrounding Caribbean region. Cloud base is rarely quantified near mountains, so these results represent a first look at seasonal and diurnal cloud base dynamics for the TMCF. From May 2013 to August 2016, cloud base was lowest during the midsummer dry season, and cloud bases were lower than the mountaintops as often in the winter dry season as in the wet seasons. The lowest cloud bases most frequently occurred at higher elevation than 600 m, from 740 to 964 m. The Luquillo forest low cloud base altitudes were higher than six other sites in the Caribbean by ˜ 200-600 m, highlighting the importance of site selection to measure topographic influence on cloud height. Proximity to the oceanic cloud system where shallow cumulus clouds are seasonally invariant in altitude and cover, along with local trade-wind orographic lifting and cloud formation, may explain the dry season low clouds. The results indicate that climate change threats to low-elevation TMCFs are not limited to the dry season; changes in synoptic-scale weather patterns that increase frequency

  19. The Climate Change-Road Safety-Economy Nexus: A System Dynamics Approach to Understanding Complex Interdependencies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehdi Alirezaei

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Road accidents have the highest externality costs to society and to the economy, even when compared to the externality damages associated with air emissions and oil dependency. Road safety is one of the most complicated topics, which involves many interdependencies, and so, a sufficiently thorough analysis of roadway safety will require a novel system-based approach in which the associated feedback relationships and causal effects are given appropriate consideration. The factors affecting accident frequency and severity are highly dependent on economic parameters, environmental factors and weather conditions. In this study, we try to use a system dynamics modeling approach to model the climate change-road safety-economy nexus, thereby investigating the complex interactions among these important areas by tracking how they affect each other over time. For this purpose, five sub-models are developed to model each aspect of the overall nexus and to interact with each other to simulate the overall system. As a result, this comprehensive model can provide a platform for policy makers to test the effectiveness of different policy scenarios to reduce the negative consequences of traffic accidents and improve road safety.

  20. Integrating Climate Information and Decision Processes for Regional Climate Resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buizer, James; Goddard, Lisa; Guido, Zackry

    2015-04-01

    An integrated multi-disciplinary team of researchers from the University of Arizona and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University have joined forces with communities and institutions in the Caribbean, South Asia and West Africa to develop relevant, usable climate information and connect it to real decisions and development challenges. The overall objective of the "Integrating Climate Information and Decision Processes for Regional Climate Resilience" program is to build community resilience to negative impacts of climate variability and change. We produce and provide science-based climate tools and information to vulnerable peoples and the public, private, and civil society organizations that serve them. We face significant institutional challenges because of the geographical and cultural distance between the locale of climate tool-makers and the locale of climate tool-users and because of the complicated, often-inefficient networks that link them. To use an accepted metaphor, there is great institutional difficulty in coordinating the supply of and the demand for useful climate products that can be put to the task of building local resilience and reducing climate vulnerability. Our program is designed to reduce the information constraint and to initiate a linkage that is more demand driven, and which provides a set of priorities for further climate tool generation. A demand-driven approach to the co-production of appropriate and relevant climate tools seeks to meet the direct needs of vulnerable peoples as these needs have been canvassed empirically and as the benefits of application have been adequately evaluated. We first investigate how climate variability and climate change affect the livelihoods of vulnerable peoples. In so doing we assess the complex institutional web within which these peoples live -- the public agencies that serve them, their forms of access to necessary information, the structural constraints

  1. Understanding the causes of recent warming of mediterranean waters. How much could be attributed to climate change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macias, Diego; Garcia-Gorriz, Elisa; Stips, Adolf

    2013-01-01

    During the past two decades, Mediterranean waters have been warming at a rather high rate resulting in scientific and social concern. This warming trend is observed in satellite data, field data and model simulations, and affects both surface and deep waters throughout the Mediterranean basin. However, the warming rate is regionally different and seems to change with time, which has led to the question of what causes underlie the observed trends. Here, we analyze available satellite information on sea surface temperature (SST) from the last 25 years using spectral techniques and find that more than half of the warming tendency during this period is due to a non-linear, wave-like tendency. Using a state of the art hydrodynamic model, we perform a hindcast simulation and obtain the simulated SST evolution of the Mediterranean basin for the last 52 years. These SST results show a clear sinusoidal tendency that follows the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) during the simulation period. Our results reveal that 58% of recent warming in Mediterranean waters could be attributed to this AMO-like oscillation, being anthropogenic-induced climate change only responsible for 42% of total trend. The observed acceleration of water warming during the 1990s therefore appears to be caused by a superimposition of anthropogenic-induced warming with the positive phase of the AMO, while the recent slowdown of this tendency is likely due to a shift in the AMO phase. It has been proposed that this change in the AMO phase will mask the effect of global warming in the forthcoming decades, and our results indicate that the same could also be applicable to the Mediterranean Sea. Henceforth, natural multidecadal temperature oscillations should be taken into account to avoid underestimation of the anthropogenic-induced warming of the Mediterranean basin in the future.

  2. Understanding the causes of recent warming of mediterranean waters. How much could be attributed to climate change?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diego Macias

    Full Text Available During the past two decades, Mediterranean waters have been warming at a rather high rate resulting in scientific and social concern. This warming trend is observed in satellite data, field data and model simulations, and affects both surface and deep waters throughout the Mediterranean basin. However, the warming rate is regionally different and seems to change with time, which has led to the question of what causes underlie the observed trends. Here, we analyze available satellite information on sea surface temperature (SST from the last 25 years using spectral techniques and find that more than half of the warming tendency during this period is due to a non-linear, wave-like tendency. Using a state of the art hydrodynamic model, we perform a hindcast simulation and obtain the simulated SST evolution of the Mediterranean basin for the last 52 years. These SST results show a clear sinusoidal tendency that follows the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO during the simulation period. Our results reveal that 58% of recent warming in Mediterranean waters could be attributed to this AMO-like oscillation, being anthropogenic-induced climate change only responsible for 42% of total trend. The observed acceleration of water warming during the 1990s therefore appears to be caused by a superimposition of anthropogenic-induced warming with the positive phase of the AMO, while the recent slowdown of this tendency is likely due to a shift in the AMO phase. It has been proposed that this change in the AMO phase will mask the effect of global warming in the forthcoming decades, and our results indicate that the same could also be applicable to the Mediterranean Sea. Henceforth, natural multidecadal temperature oscillations should be taken into account to avoid underestimation of the anthropogenic-induced warming of the Mediterranean basin in the future.

  3. An automated multi-model based evapotranspiration estimation framework for understanding crop-climate interactions in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattarai, N.; Jain, M.; Mallick, K.

    2017-12-01

    A remote sensing based multi-model evapotranspiration (ET) estimation framework is developed using MODIS and NASA Merra-2 reanalysis data for data poor regions, and we apply this framework to the Indian subcontinent. The framework eliminates the need for in-situ calibration data and hence estimates ET completely from space and is replicable across all regions in the world. Currently, six surface energy balance models ranging from widely-used SEBAL, METRIC, and SEBS to moderately-used S-SEBI, SSEBop, and a relatively new model, STIC1.2 are being integrated and validated. Preliminary analysis suggests good predictability of the models for estimating near- real time ET under clear sky conditions from various crop types in India with coefficient of determination 0.32-0.55 and percent bias -15%-28%, when compared against Bowen Ratio based ET estimates. The results are particularly encouraging given that no direct ground input data were used in the analysis. The framework is currently being extended to estimate seasonal ET across the Indian subcontinent using a model-ensemble approach that uses all available MODIS 8-day datasets since 2000. These ET products are being used to monitor inter-seasonal and inter-annual dynamics of ET and crop water use across different crop and irrigation practices in India. Particularly, the potential impacts of changes in precipitation patterns and extreme heat (e.g., extreme degree days) on seasonal crop water consumption is being studied. Our ET products are able to locate the water stress hotspots that need to be targeted with water saving interventions to maintain agricultural production in the face of climate variability and change.

  4. Identifying causal linkages between environmental variables and African conflicts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguy-Robertson, A. L.; Dartevelle, S.

    2017-12-01

    Environmental variables that contribute to droughts, flooding, and other natural hazards are often identified as factors contributing to conflict; however, few studies attempt to quantify these causal linkages. Recent research has demonstrated that the environment operates within a dynamical system framework and the influence of variables can be identified from convergent cross mapping (CCM) between shadow manifolds. We propose to use CCM to identify causal linkages between environmental variables and incidences of conflict. This study utilizes time series data from Climate Forecast System ver. 2 and MODIS satellite sensors processed using Google Earth Engine to aggregate country and regional trends. These variables are then compared to Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project observations at similar scales. Results provide relative rankings of variables and their linkage to conflict. Being able to identify which factors contributed more strongly to a conflict can allow policy makers to prepare solutions to mitigate future crises. Knowledge of the primary environmental factors can lead to the identification of other variables to examine in the causal network influencing conflict.

  5. Building linkages and bargaining power between smallholder ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Mo

    This paper emphasizes the importance of facilitating the process of linkages between smallholder farmers and service providers as ... have used the same principles to form linkages with fertiliser suppliers to access other inputs such as manures, ... however, be used for other innovation systems in community development.

  6. Linkage activities amongst researchers, extension agents, farmers ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper examined the research- extension- farmer- input dealer and marketer linkage activities in the North West Province of South Africa. A simple random sampling technique was used to select researchers, extension agents, farmers, agricultural input dealers and marketers. Their responses in linkage activities were ...

  7. NASA's Advancements in Space-Based Spectrometry Lead to Improvements in Weather Prediction and Understanding of Climate Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susskind, Joel; Iredell, Lena

    2010-01-01

    AIRS (Atmospheric Infra-Red Sounder), was launched, in conjunction with AMSU-A (Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A) on the NASA polar orbiting research satellite EOS (Earth Observing System) Aqua satellite in May 2002 as a next generation atmospheric sounding system. Atmospheric sounders provide information primarily about the vertical distribution of atmospheric temperature and water vapor distribution. This is achieved by measuring outgoing radiation in discrete channels (spectral intervals) which are sensitive primarily to variations of these geophysical parameters. The primary objectives of AIRS/AMSU were to utilize such information in order to improve the skill of numerical weather prediction as well as to measure climate variability and trends. AIRS is a multi-detector array grating spectrometer with 2378 channels covering the spectral range 650/cm (15 microns) to 2660/cm (3.6 microns) with a resolving power (i/a i) of roughly 1200 where a i is the spectral channel bandpass. Atmospheric temperature profile can be determined from channel observations taken within the 15 micron (the long-wave CO2 absorption band) and within the 4.2 micron (the short-wave CO2 absorption band). Radiances in these (and all other) spectral intervals in the infrared are also sensitive to the presence of clouds in the instrument?s field of view (FOV), which are present about 95% of the time. AIRS was designed so as to allow for the ability to produce accurate Quality Controlled atmospheric soundings under most cloud conditions. This was achieved by having 1) extremely low channel noise values in the shortwave portion of the spectrum and 2) a very flat spatial response function within a channel?s FOV. IASI, the high spectral resolution IR interferometer flying on the European METOP satellite, does not contain either of these important characteristics. The AIRS instrument was also designed to be extremely stabile with regard to its spectral radiometric characteristics, which is

  8. Spatial linkages between coral proxies of terrestrial runoff across a large embayment in Madagascar

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grove, C.A.; Zinke, J.; Scheufen, T.; Maina, J.; Epping, E.; Boer, W.; Randriamanantsoa, B.; Brummer, G.-J.A.

    2012-01-01

    Coral cores provide vital climate reconstructions for site-specific temporal variability in river flow and sediment load. Yet, their ability to record spatial differences across multiple catchments is relatively unknown. Here, we investigate spatial linkages between four coral proxies of terrestrial

  9. Reconstruction of the boundary between climate science and politics: the IPCC in the Japanese mass media, 1988-2007.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asayama, Shinichiro; Ishii, Atsushi

    2014-02-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) plays a significant role in bridging the boundary between climate science and politics. Media coverage is crucial for understanding how climate science is communicated and embedded in society. This study analyzes the discursive construction of the IPCC in three Japanese newspapers from 1988 to 2007 in terms of the science-politics boundary. The results show media discourses engaged in boundary-work which rhetorically separated science and politics, and constructed the iconic image of the IPCC as a pure scientific authority. In the linkages between the global and national arenas of climate change, the media "domesticate" the issue, translating the global nature of climate change into a discourse that suits the national context. We argue that the Japanese media's boundary-work is part of the media domestication that reconstructed the boundary between climate science and politics reflecting the Japanese context.

  10. Using CAM3 and the Alkenone Method to Understand how Pliocene SST's Affect California and Other Climates Adjacent to Upwelling Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Searles, Z. A.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Rosenbloom, N. A.; Dekens, P. S.

    2008-12-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fourth assessment report established with 90% confidence that anthropogenic climate change will result in a warmer world. In order to more fully understand possible future climate, past analogues of warm periods should be analyzed. The early Pliocene is an appropriate analogue because the continental configuration was similar to today and CO2 levels were comparable to present (~100ppm higher than pre-anthropogenic levels). This project has two objectives: 1.To test the atmospheric sensitivity to USGS PRISM2 dataset revised to better approximate proxy data indicating warmer SST's in upwelling regions and 2. To provide early-Pliocene (2.7- 3.5 Ma) SST estimates for ODP site 1018 on the California Margin (36°59.4'N, 123°16.5'W) using the UK'37 SST proxy. Recent UK'37 proxy data reveals that PRISM2 underestimates SST's in Pacific and Atlantic coastal upwelling regions. The sensitivity of the atmosphere to significantly warmer SST's in upwelling regions was tested using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmospheric Model, version 3 (CAM3). Initial conditions were supplied by the USGS PRISM2 project and include Pliocene SST's, vegetation cover, sea level height, topography, marine and continental ice extent. Pliocene SST's along the Californian, Peruvian, North African and South African margin were modified to reflect proxy observations from 4 sites. The lack of observational coverage (1 data point per region) required interpolation of the areal extent of the SST warming anomaly indicated by the proxies. Experiment results show increased cumulative precipitation and humidity in regions where the original PRISM2 predicted drying. The predicted North American increase in precipitation is in better agreement with geologic proxies indicating wetter conditions. Warmer SST's also causes weaker wind velocities along the North American, Peruvian, and North African margins, and stronger winds along the

  11. Information-Theoretic Approach May Shed a Light to a Better Understanding and Sustaining the Integrity of Ecological-Societal Systems under Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, J.

    2016-12-01

    Considering high levels of uncertainty, epistemological conflicts over facts and values, and a sense of urgency, normal paradigm-driven science will be insufficient to mobilize people and nation toward sustainability. The conceptual framework to bridge the societal system dynamics with that of natural ecosystems in which humanity operates remains deficient. The key to understanding their coevolution is to understand `self-organization.' Information-theoretic approach may shed a light to provide a potential framework which enables not only to bridge human and nature but also to generate useful knowledge for understanding and sustaining the integrity of ecological-societal systems. How can information theory help understand the interface between ecological systems and social systems? How to delineate self-organizing processes and ensure them to fulfil sustainability? How to evaluate the flow of information from data through models to decision-makers? These are the core questions posed by sustainability science in which visioneering (i.e., the engineering of vision) is an essential framework. Yet, visioneering has neither quantitative measure nor information theoretic framework to work with and teach. This presentation is an attempt to accommodate the framework of self-organizing hierarchical open systems with visioneering into a common information-theoretic framework. A case study is presented with the UN/FAO's communal vision of climate-smart agriculture (CSA) which pursues a trilemma of efficiency, mitigation, and resilience. Challenges of delineating and facilitating self-organizing systems are discussed using transdisciplinary toold such as complex systems thinking, dynamic process network analysis and multi-agent systems modeling. Acknowledgments: This study was supported by the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under Grant KMA-2012-0001-A (WISE project).

  12. An innovative approach to undergraduate climate change education: Sustainability in the workplace

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Z. P.

    2009-04-01

    Climate change and climate science are a core component of environment-related degree programmes, but there are many programmes, for example business studies, that have clear linkages to climate change and sustainability issues which often have no or limited coverage of the subject. Although an in-depth coverage of climate science is not directly applicable to all programmes of study, the subject of climate change is of great relevance to all of society. Graduates from the higher education system are often viewed as society's ‘future leaders', hence it can be argued that it is important that all graduates are conversant in the issues of climate change and strategies for moving towards a sustainable future. Rather than an in depth understanding of climate science it may be more important that a wider range of students are educated in strategies for positive action. One aspect of climate change education that may be missing, including in programmes where climate change is a core topic, is practical strategies, skills and knowledge for reducing our impact on the climate system. This presentation outlines an innovative approach to undergraduate climate change education which focuses on the strategies for moving towards sustainability, but which is supported by climate science understanding taught within this context. Students gain knowledge and understanding of the motivations and strategies for businesses to improve their environmental performance, and develop skills in identifying areas of environmental improvement and recommending actions for change. These skills will allow students to drive positive change in their future careers. Such courses are relevant to students of all disciplines and can give the opportunity to students for whom climate change education is not a core part of their programme, to gain greater understanding of the issues and an awareness of practical changes that can be made at all levels to move towards a more sustainable society.

  13. America's Water in the 20th Century: Measures to address climate induced risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devineni, N.

    2017-12-01

    This work develops an understanding of water risk for USA considering linkages between water supply and competing demands. It explores how climate variability and changing water demands manifest as water deficits and how public-private management decisions determine regional water availability and drought resilience. We develop insights on regional water risks, infrastructure investments, sectoral allocation and policy modifications for America's future water sustainability. In this talk, I will focus on demonstrating how the variations in climate over the last century influenced changes in water use across the continent USA. A peak into our interactive modeling environment for future evolution of water use and supply will also be provided.

  14. Linkage experiment at Mt. Chacaltaya

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Honda, Ken

    1983-01-01

    At Mt. Chakaltaya, AS-EC linkage experiments have been made to study the hadrons and the high energy gamma-ray at the center of air showers. Thirty-five particle detectors for air showers were distributed in an area of radius 50 m. At the center, X-ray films were inserted at intervals of 2 c.u. in lead stack. Under this detector, there was a burst detector. The correspondence of the data of an emulsion chamber (EC) and those of an air shower was determined. The correspondence of high energy events was found easily, but it became hard in case of the events with energy less than 10 TeV. The age distribution of burst data was obtained. The air showers with large burst size had, on an average, young age. The lateral distribution of burst size was obtained. The results suggested that the age was an important parameter of the development of air showers. In the case of large burst size, the energy was large. (Kato, T.)

  15. Haplotyping, linkage mapping and expression analysis of barley genes regulated by terminal drought stress influencing seed quality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wobus Ulrich

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The increasingly narrow genetic background characteristic of modern crop germplasm presents a challenge for the breeding of cultivars that require adaptation to the anticipated change in climate. Thus, high priority research aims at the identification of relevant allelic variation present both in the crop itself as well as in its progenitors. This study is based on the characterization of genetic variation in barley, with a view to enhancing its response to terminal drought stress. Results The expression patterns of drought regulated genes were monitored during plant ontogeny, mapped and the location of these genes was incorporated into a comprehensive barley SNP linkage map. Haplotypes within a set of 17 starch biosynthesis/degradation genes were defined, and a particularly high level of haplotype variation was uncovered in the genes encoding sucrose synthase (types I and II and starch synthase. The ability of a panel of 50 barley accessions to maintain grain starch content under terminal drought conditions was explored. Conclusion The linkage/expression map is an informative resource in the context of characterizing the response of barley to drought stress. The high level of haplotype variation among starch biosynthesis/degradation genes in the progenitors of cultivated barley shows that domestication and breeding have greatly eroded their allelic diversity in current elite cultivars. Prospective association analysis based on core drought-regulated genes may simplify the process of identifying favourable alleles, and help to understand the genetic basis of the response to terminal drought.

  16. Linkage disequilibrium in wild mice.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cathy C Laurie

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available Crosses between laboratory strains of mice provide a powerful way of detecting quantitative trait loci for complex traits related to human disease. Hundreds of these loci have been detected, but only a small number of the underlying causative genes have been identified. The main difficulty is the extensive linkage disequilibrium (LD in intercross progeny and the slow process of fine-scale mapping by traditional methods. Recently, new approaches have been introduced, such as association studies with inbred lines and multigenerational crosses. These approaches are very useful for interval reduction, but generally do not provide single-gene resolution because of strong LD extending over one to several megabases. Here, we investigate the genetic structure of a natural population of mice in Arizona to determine its suitability for fine-scale LD mapping and association studies. There are three main findings: (1 Arizona mice have a high level of genetic variation, which includes a large fraction of the sequence variation present in classical strains of laboratory mice; (2 they show clear evidence of local inbreeding but appear to lack stable population structure across the study area; and (3 LD decays with distance at a rate similar to human populations, which is considerably more rapid than in laboratory populations of mice. Strong associations in Arizona mice are limited primarily to markers less than 100 kb apart, which provides the possibility of fine-scale association mapping at the level of one or a few genes. Although other considerations, such as sample size requirements and marker discovery, are serious issues in the implementation of association studies, the genetic variation and LD results indicate that wild mice could provide a useful tool for identifying genes that cause variation in complex traits.

  17. Synthesis of Remote Sensing and Field Observations to Model and Understand Disturbance and Climate Effects on the Carbon Balance of Oregon & Northern California

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beverly Law; David Turner; Warren Cohen; Mathias Goeckede

    2008-05-22

    The goal is to quantify and explain the carbon (C) budget for Oregon and N. California. The research compares "bottom -up" and "top-down" methods, and develops prototype analytical systems for regional analysis of the carbon balance that are potentially applicable to other continental regions, and that can be used to explore climate, disturbance and land-use effects on the carbon cycle. Objectives are: 1) Improve, test and apply a bottom up approach that synthesizes a spatially nested hierarchy of observations (multispectral remote sensing, inventories, flux and extensive sites), and the Biome-BGC model to quantify the C balance across the region; 2) Improve, test and apply a top down approach for regional and global C flux modeling that uses a model-data fusion scheme (MODIS products, AmeriFlux, atmospheric CO2 concentration network), and a boundary layer model to estimate net ecosystem production (NEP) across the region and partition it among GPP, R(a) and R(h). 3) Provide critical understanding of the controls on regional C balance (how NEP and carbon stocks are influenced by disturbance from fire and management, land use, and interannual climate variation). The key science questions are, "What are the magnitudes and distributions of C sources and sinks on seasonal to decadal time scales, and what processes are controlling their dynamics? What are regional spatial and temporal variations of C sources and sinks? What are the errors and uncertainties in the data products and results (i.e., in situ observations, remote sensing, models)?

  18. Integrating Remote Sensing, Field Observations, and Models to Understand Disturbance and Climate Effects on the Carbon Balance of the West Coast U.S.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    B.E. Law; D. Turner; M. Goeckede

    2010-06-01

    GOAL: To develop and apply an approach to quantify and understand the regional carbon balance of the west coast states for the North American Carbon Program. OBJECTIVE: As an element of NACP research, the proposed investigation is a two pronged approach that derives and evaluates a regional carbon (C) budget for Oregon, Washington, and California. Objectives are (1) Use multiple data sources, including AmeriFlux data, inventories, and multispectral remote sensing data to investigate trends in carbon storage and exchanges of CO2 and water with variation in climate and disturbance history; (2) Develop and apply regional modeling that relies on these multiple data sources to reduce uncertainty in spatial estimates of carbon storage and NEP, and relative contributions of terrestrial ecosystems and anthropogenic emissions to atmospheric CO2 in the region; (3) Model terrestrial carbon processes across the region, using the Biome-BGC terrestrial ecosystem model, and an atmospheric inverse modeling approach to estimate variation in rate and timing of terrestrial uptake and feedbacks to the atmosphere in response to climate and disturbance. APPROACH: In performing the regional analysis, the research plan for the bottom-up approach uses a nested hierarchy of observations that include AmeriFlux data (i.e., net ecosystem exchange (NEE) from eddy covariance and associated biometric data), intermediate intensity inventories from an extended plot array partially developed from the PI's previous research, Forest Service FIA and CVS inventory data, time since disturbance, disturbance type, and cover type from Landsat developed in this study, and productivity estimates from MODIS algorithms. The BIOME-BGC model is used to integrate information from these sources and quantify C balance across the region. The inverse modeling approach assimilates flux data from AmeriFlux sites, high precision CO2 concentration data from AmeriFlux towers and four new calibrated CO2 sites

  19. Climate. For a successful change. Volume 1: How to commit one's territory in an adaptation approach. Volume 2: How to implement a territorial project which integrates adaptation. Volume 3: How to understand the complexity of climate change - Scientific issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-12-01

    The first volume presents the climate issue as a world issue as well as a local issue (historic context of adaptation to climate change effects, legal obligation for local communities, indicators of direct and indirect effects of climate change, economic impacts), and presents adaptation as a way of action at a local level (definition of a strategy, articulation between works on greenhouse gas emissions and those on adaptation, actions to be implemented, action follow-up and adjustment). The second volume describes how to communicate and talk about climate change, and more specifically about the above-mentioned issues (reality of climate change, indirect and direct effects, obligations and responsibilities for local communities, economic impacts). It addresses the issue of climate change in the Rhone-Alpes region: adaptation within the regional scheme on climate, air and energy (SRCAE), role of local communities. It presents an action methodology: to inform and organise, to prepare the mobilisation of actors, to prepare the territory vulnerability diagnosis, to define the adaptation strategy, and to implement, follow-up and assess the action. The third volume proposes a set of sheets containing scientific information and data related to climate change: factors of climate variability, current global warming, greenhouse gases and aerosols, physical-chemical principles involved in greenhouse effect, carbon sinks and carbon sources, effects of land assignment and agriculture, combined effects of mankind actions on the atmosphere, climate change and oceans, climate change and cryo-sphere, climate change and biodiversity, extreme meteorological and climate events and their consequences

  20. Accommodating chromosome inversions in linkage analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Gary K; Slaten, Erin; Ophoff, Roel A; Lange, Kenneth

    2006-08-01

    This work develops a population-genetics model for polymorphic chromosome inversions. The model precisely describes how an inversion changes the nature of and approach to linkage equilibrium. The work also describes algorithms and software for allele-frequency estimation and linkage analysis in the presence of an inversion. The linkage algorithms implemented in the software package Mendel estimate recombination parameters and calculate the posterior probability that each pedigree member carries the inversion. Application of Mendel to eight Centre d'Etude du Polymorphisme Humain pedigrees in a region containing a common inversion on 8p23 illustrates its potential for providing more-precise estimates of the location of an unmapped marker or trait gene. Our expanded cytogenetic analysis of these families further identifies inversion carriers and increases the evidence of linkage.

  1. Missing Linkages in California's Landscape [ds420

    Data.gov (United States)

    California Department of Resources — The critical need for conserving landscape linkages first came to the forefront of conservation thinking in California in November 2000, when a statewide interagency...

  2. Multiobjective optimization of a steering linkage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sleesonsom, S.; Bureerat, S.

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, multi-objective optimization of a rack-and-pinion steering linkage is proposed. This steering linkage is a common mechanism used in small cars with three advantages as it is simple to construct, economical to manufacture, and compact and easy to operate. In the previous works, many researchers tried to minimize a steering error but minimization of a turning radius is somewhat ignored. As a result, a multi-objective optimization problem is assigned to simultaneously minimize a steering error and a turning radius. The design variables are linkage dimensions. The design problem is solved by the hybrid of multi-objective population-based incremental learning and differential evolution with various constraint handling schemes. The new design strategy leads to effective design of rack-and-pinion steering linkages satisfying both steering error and turning radius criteria

  3. Multiobjective optimization of a steering linkage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sleesonsom, S.; Bureerat, S. [Sustainable and Infrastructure Research and Development Center, Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Khon Kaen University, Khon Kaen (Thailand)

    2016-08-15

    In this paper, multi-objective optimization of a rack-and-pinion steering linkage is proposed. This steering linkage is a common mechanism used in small cars with three advantages as it is simple to construct, economical to manufacture, and compact and easy to operate. In the previous works, many researchers tried to minimize a steering error but minimization of a turning radius is somewhat ignored. As a result, a multi-objective optimization problem is assigned to simultaneously minimize a steering error and a turning radius. The design variables are linkage dimensions. The design problem is solved by the hybrid of multi-objective population-based incremental learning and differential evolution with various constraint handling schemes. The new design strategy leads to effective design of rack-and-pinion steering linkages satisfying both steering error and turning radius criteria.

  4. A genetic linkage map for the saltwater crocodile (Crocodylus porosus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lance Stacey L

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Genome elucidation is now in high gear for many organisms, and whilst genetic maps have been developed for a broad array of species, surprisingly, no such maps exist for a crocodilian, or indeed any other non-avian member of the Class Reptilia. Genetic linkage maps are essential tools for the mapping and dissection of complex quantitative trait loci (QTL, and in order to permit systematic genome scans for the identification of genes affecting economically important traits in farmed crocodilians, a comprehensive genetic linage map will be necessary. Results A first-generation genetic linkage map for the saltwater crocodile (Crocodylus porosus was constructed using 203 microsatellite markers amplified across a two-generation pedigree comprising ten full-sib families from a commercial population at Darwin Crocodile Farm, Northern Territory, Australia. Linkage analyses identified fourteen linkage groups comprising a total of 180 loci, with 23 loci remaining unlinked. Markers were ordered within linkage groups employing a heuristic approach using CRIMAP v3.0 software. The estimated female and male recombination map lengths were 1824.1 and 319.0 centimorgans (cM respectively, revealing an uncommonly large disparity in recombination map lengths between sexes (ratio of 5.7:1. Conclusion We have generated the first genetic linkage map for a crocodilian, or indeed any other non-avian reptile. The uncommonly large disparity in recombination map lengths confirms previous preliminary evidence of major differences in sex-specific recombination rates in a species that exhibits temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD. However, at this point the reason for this disparity in saltwater crocodiles remains unclear. This map will be a valuable resource for crocodilian researchers, facilitating the systematic genome scans necessary for identifying genes affecting complex traits of economic importance in the crocodile industry. In addition

  5. U.S. power generation, water stress, and climate change: using science to understand "water-smart" electricity-sector decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, J. H.; Frumhoff, P. C.; Averyt, K.; Newmark, R. L.

    2012-12-01

    In 2011, nearly 90 percent of U.S. electricity came from thermoelectric (steam-producing) power plants that use water for cooling. These water demands can tax rivers and aquifers, threaten fish and wildlife, and spark conflicts between power plants and other water users. Climate change, driven by in large part by emissions from fossil fuel-based electricity generation, is adding to the strain. Higher temperatures raise electricity demand and lower cooling-system efficiency, while drought and changes in precipitation patterns may make freshwater supplies less reliable. Here we report new findings on the impacts, present and projected, of power-plant water use on local water stress across the United States, and its implications for understanding what constitutes "water-smart" energy decision making. This work was carried out under the auspices of the Energy and Water in a Warming World initiative (EW3), a research and outreach collaboration designed to inform and motivate U.S. public awareness and science-based public policy at the energy-water nexus. The research has involved cataloguing the water use characteristics of virtually every U.S. power generator in the nation to develop a robust assessment of the water resource implications of cooling the nation's power plants. By analyzing local water supply and demand conditions across the nation, we identified water basins where current power plant water use appears to contribute strongly to local water supply stress, and where water-intensive electricity choices could substantially exacerbate water stress. We also identified other potential approaches to considering stress, particularly related to water temperature. The research has also involved analyzing the water implications of different electricity pathways in the United States over the next 40 years. We used a high-resolution electricity model to generate a range of electricity mixes, particularly in the context of a carbon budget, and assessed the water

  6. Review of the Linkages between Gender Equity and Climate ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    International Journal of Tropical Agriculture and Food Systems. Journal Home · ABOUT · Advanced Search · Current Issue · Archives · Journal Home > Vol 4, No 4 (2010) >. Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads.

  7. Review of the Linkages between Gender Equity and Climate ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    International Journal of Tropical Agriculture and Food Systems. Journal Home · ABOUT THIS JOURNAL · Advanced Search · Current Issue · Archives · Journal Home > Vol 4, No 4 (2010) >. Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads.

  8. Book Review:Biodiversity and Climate Change: Linkages at ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Potchefstroom Electronic Law Journal/Potchefstroomse Elektroniese Regsblad. Journal Home · ABOUT THIS JOURNAL · Advanced Search · Current Issue · Archives · Journal Home > Vol 16, No 4 (2013) >. Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads.

  9. Understanding the Climate of Deceit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kincheloe, Joe L.; Staley, George

    1983-01-01

    Briefly discusses propaganda of the past four decades, defines the term, reviews its earliest uses, and outlines today's propaganda vehicles--mass media, special interest groups, and marketing techniques. A propaganda analysis program for educating today's youth is proposed which includes eight questions for evaluating the source of media…

  10. Fault linkage and continental breakup

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cresswell, Derren; Lymer, Gaël; Reston, Tim; Stevenson, Carl; Bull, Jonathan; Sawyer, Dale; Morgan, Julia

    2017-04-01

    The magma-poor rifted margin off the west coast of Galicia (NW Spain) has provided some of the key observations in the development of models describing the final stages of rifting and continental breakup. In 2013, we collected a 68 x 20 km 3D seismic survey across the Galicia margin, NE Atlantic. Processing through to 3D Pre-stack Time Migration (12.5 m bin-size) and 3D depth conversion reveals the key structures, including an underlying detachment fault (the S detachment), and the intra-block and inter-block faults. These data reveal multiple phases of faulting, which overlap spatially and temporally, have thinned the crust to between zero and a few km thickness, producing 'basement windows' where crustal basement has been completely pulled apart and sediments lie directly on the mantle. Two approximately N-S trending fault systems are observed: 1) a margin proximal system of two linked faults that are the upward extension (breakaway faults) of the S; in the south they form one surface that splays northward to form two faults with an intervening fault block. These faults were thus demonstrably active at one time rather than sequentially. 2) An oceanward relay structure that shows clear along strike linkage. Faults within the relay trend NE-SW and heavily dissect the basement. The main block bounding faults can be traced from the S detachment through the basement into, and heavily deforming, the syn-rift sediments where they die out, suggesting that the faults propagated up from the S detachment surface. Analysis of the fault heaves and associated maps at different structural levels show complementary fault systems. The pattern of faulting suggests a variation in main tectonic transport direction moving oceanward. This might be interpreted as a temporal change during sequential faulting, however the transfer of extension between faults and the lateral variability of fault blocks suggests that many of the faults across the 3D volume were active at least in part

  11. The climate change and energy security nexus

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    King, Marcus Dubois [George Washington University; Gulledge, Jay [ORNL

    2013-01-01

    The study of the impacts of climate change on national and interna-tional security has grown as a research field, particularly in the last five years. Within this broad field, academic scholarship has concentrated primarily on whether climate change is, or may become, a driver of violent conflict. This relationship remains highly contested. However, national security policy and many non-governmental organizations have identified climate change as a threat multiplier in conflict situations. The U.S. Department of Defense and the United Kingdom's Ministry of Defense have incorporated these findings into strategic planning documents such as the Quadrennial Defense Review and the Strategic Defence and Security Review. In contrast to the climate-conflict nexus, our analysis found that academic scholarship on the climate change and energy security nexus is small and more disciplinarily focused. In fact, a search of social science litera-ture found few sources, with a significant percentage of these works attribut-able to a single journal. Assuming that policymakers are more likely to rely on broader social science literature than technical or scientific journals, this leaves a limited foundation. This then begged the question: what are these sources? We identified a body of grey literature on the nexus of climate change and energy security of a greater size than the body of peer-reviewed social science literature. We reviewed fifty-eight recent reports, issue briefs, and transcripts to better understand the nexus of climate change and energy security, as well as to gain insight about the questions policymakers need answered by those undertaking the research. In this article, we describe the nature of the sources reviewed, highlight possible climate change and energy security linkages found within those sources, identify emerging risks, and offer conclusions that can guide further research.

  12. Linkage between forest-based mitigation and GHG markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loisel, C.

    2008-01-01

    According to the latest assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, deforestation and forest degradation contributed to 23% of global carbon dioxide emissions and 17% of global emissions of all greenhouse gases in 2004 (IPCC AR4 SPM, 2007). Despite significant uncertainties, these figures stress the relevance of addressing deforestation into the new global climate governance regime. Deforestation is primarily a concern for tropical regions nowadays and FAO's Forest resource assessments (2005) highlight significant national disparities as a consequence of history, soil and climate conditions and current policies and socio-economic conditions. The Stern Review (2006) pointed to deforestation abatement as a must-seize opportunity to cut global greenhouse emissions with good cost/efficiency and numerous co-benefits. Under the framework of the 2007 Bali Action Plan, the UNFCCC is now considering policy approaches to promote the reduction of emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, and also forest conservation, sustainable forest management and forestation ('REDD+'). At the same time, the European Union is engaged in a major review of its climate and energy legislation. The EU climate/energy package has entered into the final stages of negotiation and the outcome should provide funding for REDD+ actions on the long run through some sort of connection to carbon markets. These are moments of historic significance both for world forests and climate protection, but significant challenges remain. This workshop focuses on one of these challenges: while mechanisms are being designed to connect greenhouse gas emission trading schemes and REDD+ actions, we must ensure that they enable broad and far-reaching actions while safeguarding against various sorts of unintended consequences. This background paper intends to provide a rapid initial overview on three aspects of the linkage between forest-based mitigation and emission trading schemes: (i

  13. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    The concept of refugia has long been studied from theoretical and paleontological perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change ref...

  14. Bird Species and Climate Change. The Global Status Report. A synthesis of current scientific understanding of anthropogenic climate change impacts on global bird species now, and projected future effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wormworth, J.; Mallon, K.

    2006-01-01

    The results of a global analysis of current and future impacts of climate change on birds are presented. The report reviews more than 200 research reports to assemble a clear and consistent picture of climatic risk to this important animal group, illustrated with numerous examples and case studies. It is found that: climate change now affects bird species' behaviour, ranges and population dynamics; some bird species are already experiencing strong negative impacts from climate change; and in future, subject to greenhouse gas emissions levels and climatic response, climate change will put large numbers of bird species at risk of extinction, with estimates of extinction rates varying from 2 to 72%, depending on the region, climate scenario and potential for birds to shift to new habitat

  15. [Analysis of linkage disequilibrium and linkage for 12 short tandem repeat loci on chromosome X].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Qiansu; Tang, Jianpin; Chen, Zucong; Li, Fagui; Yu, Xin; Wang, Ping; Lin, Hanguang; Shi, Meisen

    2014-12-01

    To analyze linkage disequilibrium of 12 short tandem repeat loci on chromosome X (X-STR) among an ethnic Han population from Guilin, Guangxi, and to study the genetic linkage and haplotype distributions of such loci in 2 linkage groups. 12 X-STR loci including DXS8378, DXS10159, DXS10162, DXS10164, DXS981, DXS6789, DXS7424, DXS101, DXS7133, GATA165B12, GATA31E08 and DXS7423 were genotyped using an AGCU X12 STR PCR Amplification kit. A total of 119 pedigrees were analyzed for linkage and linkage disequilibrium. Two mutations were found at DXS7424, and 1 mutation was found at DXS10164. A total of 93 haplotypes of DXS10159-DXS10162-DXS10164 were constructed for 261 unrelated males and females, in addition with 167 haplotypes of DXS6789-DXS7424-DXS101-DXS7133. The values of recombination fraction between DXS10159 and DXS10162, DXS10162 and DXS10164, DXS6789 and DXS7424, and DXS7424 and DXS101 were 0.0269, 0.0236, 0.0505 and 0.0438, respectively. Linkage disequilibrium of X-STR does not only depend on physical and genetic distances. There was incomplete linkage relationship between loci on DXS10159-DXS1016-DXS10164 and DXS6789-DXS7424-DXS101 linkage groups.

  16. Understanding the Role of the Co-Play between Land Use and Climate on Sediment Flux Laws in Intensively Managed Landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abban, B. K.; Papanicolaou, T.; Wilson, C. G.; Giannopoulos, C.; Sivapalan, M.

    2017-12-01

    In intensively managed landscapes (IMLs), changes in the land cover from what were previously grasslands, and their associated management practices, have led to a high degree of spatial heterogeneity and temporal variability in landscape processes that were absent pre-settlement. This has fundamentally altered terrestrial and instream sediment flux characteristics in regards to net amounts and proportions of source contributions, at shorter time scales. Sediment flux laws are now highly impacted by event-based dynamics. Whereas some events result in highly intermittent fluxes, others result in fluxes that largely propagate in the form of waves. This behavior is governed by the extent of land cover at the given time of the season, as well as the magnitude of the storm event. In addition, flux behavior changes as one moves from the plot scale to the watershed scale, and also with crop rotation. Thus, fluxes are now non-stationary due to continued human activity and its co-play with climate. The goal of this study is to develop a better understanding of the non-stationarity in sediment flux laws that arise from the co-play between land use and climate. Our approach involves the development of a modeling framework that considers all the exchanges between terrestrial and instream sources and addresses the issue of equifinality regarding terrestrial and instream source contributions on net sediment fluxes. The modeling framework couples an established terrestrial erosion model with an established in-stream sediment transport model. As a first step, our study focuses on the Clear Creek Watershed, IA, which is part of the Critical Zone Observatory for Intensively Managed Landscapes. We complement our modeling efforts with extensive terrestrial and instream field observations gathered at different times of the growing season, and in different years. We also used Bayesian sediment sourcing techniques to determine the provenance of transported material as well as the

  17. Retrospective analysis of associations between water quality and toxic blooms of golden alga (Prymnesium parvum) in Texas reservoirs: Implications for understanding dispersal mechanisms and impacts of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patino, Reynaldo; Dawson, D.; VanLandeghem, Matthew M.

    2014-01-01

    Toxic blooms of golden alga (GA, Prymnesium parvum) in Texas typically occur in winter or early spring. In North America, they were first reported in Texas in the 1980s, and a marked range expansion occurred in 2001. Although there is concern about the influence of climate change on the future distribution of GA, factors responsible for past dispersals remain uncertain. To better understand the factors that influence toxic bloom dispersal in reservoirs, this study characterized reservoir water quality associated with toxic GA blooms since 2001, and examined trends in water quality during a 20-year period bracketing the 2001 expansion. Archived data were analyzed for six impacted and six nonimpacted reservoirs from two major Texas basins: Brazos River and Colorado River. Data were simplified for analysis by pooling spatially (across sampling stations) and temporally (winter, December-February) within reservoirs and generating depth-corrected (1 m) monthly values. Classification tree analysis [period of record (POR), 2001-2010] using salinity-associated variables (specific conductance, chloride, sulfate), dissolved oxygen (DO), pH, temperature, total hardness, potassium, nitrate+nitrite, and total phosphorus indicated that salinity best predicts the toxic bloom occurrence. Minimum estimated salinities for toxic bloom formation were 0.59 and 1.02 psu in Brazos and Colorado River reservoirs, respectively. Principal component analysis (POR, 2001-2010) indicated that GA habitat is best defined by higher salinity relative to nonimpacted reservoirs, with winter DO and pH also being slightly higher and winter temperature slightly lower in impacted reservoirs. Trend analysis, however, did not reveal monotonic changes in winter water quality of GA-impacted reservoirs during the 20-year period (1991-2010) bracketing the 2001 dispersal. Therefore, whereas minimum levels of salinity are required for GA establishment and toxic blooms in Texas reservoirs, the lack of trends in

  18. Dimensional threshold for fracture linkage and hooking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamarche, Juliette; Chabani, Arezki; Gauthier, Bertrand D. M.

    2018-03-01

    Fracture connectivity in rocks depends on spatial properties of the pattern including length, abundance and orientation. When fractures form a single-strike set, they hardly cross-cut each other and the connectivity is limited. Linkage probability increases with increasing fracture abundance and length as small fractures connect to each other to form longer ones. A process for parallel fracture linkage is the "hooking", where two converging fracture tips mutually deviate and then converge to connect due to the interaction of their crack-tip stresses. Quantifying the processes and conditions for fracture linkage in single-strike fracture sets is crucial to better predicting fluid flow in Naturally Fractured Reservoirs. For 1734 fractures in Permian shales of the Lodève Basin, SE France, we measured geometrical parameters in 2D, characterizing three stages of the hooking process: underlapping, overlapping and linkage. We deciphered the threshold values, shape ratios and limiting conditions to switch from one stage to another one. The hook set up depends on the spacing (S) and fracture length (Lh) with the relation S ≈ 0.15 Lh. Once the hooking is initiated, with the fracture deviation length (L) L ≈ 0.4 Lh, the fractures reaches the linkage stage only when the spacing is reduced to S ≈ 0.02 Lh and the convergence (C) is < 0.1 L. These conditions apply to multi-scale fractures with a shape ratio L/S = 10 and for fracture curvature of 10°-20°.

  19. Visualization of pairwise and multilocus linkage disequilibrium structure using latent forests.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raphaël Mourad

    Full Text Available Linkage disequilibrium study represents a major issue in statistical genetics as it plays a fundamental role in gene mapping and helps us to learn more about human history. The linkage disequilibrium complex structure makes its exploratory data analysis essential yet challenging. Visualization methods, such as the triangular heat map implemented in Haploview, provide simple and useful tools to help understand complex genetic patterns, but remain insufficient to fully describe them. Probabilistic graphical models have been widely recognized as a powerful formalism allowing a concise and accurate modeling of dependences between variables. In this paper, we propose a method for short-range, long-range and chromosome-wide linkage disequilibrium visualization using forests of hierarchical latent class models. Thanks to its hierarchical nature, our method is shown to provide a compact view of both pairwise and multilocus linkage disequilibrium spatial structures for the geneticist. Besides, a multilocus linkage disequilibrium measure has been designed to evaluate linkage disequilibrium in hierarchy clusters. To learn the proposed model, a new scalable algorithm is presented. It constrains the dependence scope, relying on physical positions, and is able to deal with more than one hundred thousand single nucleotide polymorphisms. The proposed algorithm is fast and does not require phase genotypic data.

  20. Conceptualizing Climate Change in the Context of a Climate System: Implications for Climate and Environmental Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepardson, Daniel P.; Niyogi, Dev; Roychoudhury, Anita; Hirsch, Andrew

    2012-01-01

    Today there is much interest in teaching secondary students about climate change. Much of this effort has focused directly on students' understanding of climate change. We hypothesize, however, that in order for students to understand climate change they must first understand climate as a system and how changes to this system due to both natural…

  1. The Barley Chromosome 5 Linkage Map

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, J.; Jørgensen, Jørgen Helms

    1975-01-01

    The distances between nine loci on barley chromosome 5 have been studied in five two-point tests, three three-point tests, and one four-point test. Our previous chromosome 5 linkage map, which contained eleven loci mapped from literature data (Jensen and Jørgensen 1975), is extended with four loci......: wst5 (white streaks), necl (necrotic leaf spots), Ml-nn (powdery mildew resistance), and Pa4 (leaf rust resistance). Further, the two sections of the map are united, and the precision of the map is improved. A system for designating the positions of the loci on the linkage map is proposed. A 0......-position is fixed on the map by a locus (necl), which has a good marker gene located centrally in the linkage group. The positions of the other loci are their distances in centimorgans from the 0-position; loci in the direction of the short chromosome arm are assigned positive values and those...

  2. A microsatellite linkage map of Drosophila mojavensis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schully Sheri

    2004-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Drosophila mojavensis has been a model system for genetic studies of ecological adaptation and speciation. However, despite its use for over half a century, no linkage map has been produced for this species or its close relatives. Results We have developed and mapped 90 microsatellites in D. mojavensis, and we present a detailed recombinational linkage map of 34 of these microsatellites. A slight excess of repetitive sequence was observed on the X-chromosome relative to the autosomes, and the linkage groups have a greater recombinational length than the homologous D. melanogaster chromosome arms. We also confirmed the conservation of Muller's elements in 23 sequences between D. melanogaster and D. mojavensis. Conclusions The microsatellite primer sequences and localizations are presented here and made available to the public. This map will facilitate future quantitative trait locus mapping studies of phenotypes involved in adaptation or reproductive isolation using this species.

  3. Intragroup Emotions: Physiological Linkage and Social Presence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Järvelä, Simo; Kätsyri, Jari; Ravaja, Niklas; Chanel, Guillaume; Henttonen, Pentti

    2016-01-01

    We investigated how technologically mediating two different components of emotion—communicative expression and physiological state—to group members affects physiological linkage and self-reported feelings in a small group during video viewing. In different conditions the availability of second screen text chat (communicative expression) and visualization of group level physiological heart rates and their dyadic linkage (physiology) was varied. Within this four person group two participants formed a physically co-located dyad and the other two were individually situated in two separate rooms. We found that text chat always increased heart rate synchrony but HR visualization only with non-co-located dyads. We also found that physiological linkage was strongly connected to self-reported social presence. The results encourage further exploration of the possibilities of sharing group member's physiological components of emotion by technological means to enhance mediated communication and strengthen social presence. PMID:26903913

  4. The Contribution of Student Perceptions of School Climate to Understanding the Disproportionate Punishment of African American Students in a Middle School

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shirley, Erica L. M.; Cornell, Dewey G.

    2012-01-01

    This study investigated the contribution of student perceptions of school climate to racial differences in school discipline. Four hundred middle school students completed a school climate survey. Compared to Caucasian students, African-American students were referred to the office for discipline three times as frequently and received five times…

  5. A reference linkage map for Eucalyptus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudson, Corey J; Freeman, Jules S; Kullan, Anand R K; Petroli, César D; Sansaloni, Carolina P; Kilian, Andrzej; Detering, Frank; Grattapaglia, Dario; Potts, Brad M; Myburg, Alexander A; Vaillancourt, René E

    2012-06-15

    Genetic linkage maps are invaluable resources in plant research. They provide a key tool for many genetic applications including: mapping quantitative trait loci (QTL); comparative mapping; identifying unlinked (i.e. independent) DNA markers for fingerprinting, population genetics and phylogenetics; assisting genome sequence assembly; relating physical and recombination distances along the genome and map-based cloning of genes. Eucalypts are the dominant tree species in most Australian ecosystems and of economic importance globally as plantation trees. The genome sequence of E. grandis has recently been released providing unprecedented opportunities for genetic and genomic research in the genus. A robust reference linkage map containing sequence-based molecular markers is needed to capitalise on this resource. Several high density linkage maps have recently been constructed for the main commercial forestry species in the genus (E. grandis, E. urophylla and E. globulus) using sequenced Diversity Arrays Technology (DArT) and microsatellite markers. To provide a single reference linkage map for eucalypts a composite map was produced through the integration of data from seven independent mapping experiments (1950 individuals) using a marker-merging method. The composite map totalled 1107 cM and contained 4101 markers; comprising 3880 DArT, 213 microsatellite and eight candidate genes. Eighty-one DArT markers were mapped to two or more linkage groups, resulting in the 4101 markers being mapped to 4191 map positions. Approximately 13% of DArT markers mapped to identical map positions, thus the composite map contained 3634 unique loci at an average interval of 0.31 cM. The composite map represents the most saturated linkage map yet produced in Eucalyptus. As the majority of DArT markers contained on the map have been sequenced, the map provides a direct link to the E. grandis genome sequence and will serve as an important reference for progressing eucalypt research.

  6. Understanding Critical Socio-political and Hydro-climatic drivers behind Water Management and Increasing Dengue Disease Burden in Arid Regions of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akanda, A. S.; Johnson, K.; Frost, M.; Serman, E. A.

    2016-12-01

    Dengue is a significant public health problem in Mexico, with distribution of dengue throughout the country. Mexico is characterized by a number of attributes likely to contribute to the spread of dengue, including population growth, poor water management, urbanization, significant seasonal migration, and concentrated poverty. Understanding the socio-political and hydro-climatic drivers behind the increasing dengue disease burden in the central arid regions of Mexico is a vital component for modeling the distribution and spread of Aedes aegypti vector borne infections such as Dengue and Zika as more parts of the Americas is affected. Here, we focus on the critical socio-economic and environmental drivers behind water management, urbanization, and population migration in the arid Oaxaca region, situated in the rain shadow of the Sierra Madre Mountains at an altitude of 5000 feet. In contrast to the Pacific Coastal region which hosts climactic conditions conducive to the survival of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes with a moist tropical environment, Oaxaca is arid and exists in a constant state of water insecurity. Within Oaxaca City, water is trucked in and stored in large roof tanks; many of which are failing, allowing for leaks or mosquito infestation. Alternate sources range from existing cisterns, sophisticated collection systems, to open-air rock pits. Few resources exist to improve water security, particularly in poor neighborhoods creating a disincentive to invite surveillance for disease or to move to safer and improved water systems. Meanwhile, the region has experienced significant socio-political and demographic shift including migration, economic reorganization and urbanization over the last decade. The rise in dengue incidence during the dry season suggests human intervention (through migration, water management, sanitation, cultural practices) as a potentially important predictive factor. In this study, we analyze associations of regional hydroclimatic

  7. Some methods for blindfolded record linkage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christen Peter

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The linkage of records which refer to the same entity in separate data collections is a common requirement in public health and biomedical research. Traditionally, record linkage techniques have required that all the identifying data in which links are sought be revealed to at least one party, often a third party. This necessarily invades personal privacy and requires complete trust in the intentions of that party and their ability to maintain security and confidentiality. Dusserre, Quantin, Bouzelat and colleagues have demonstrated that it is possible to use secure one-way hash transformations to carry out follow-up epidemiological studies without any party having to reveal identifying information about any of the subjects – a technique which we refer to as "blindfolded record linkage". A limitation of their method is that only exact comparisons of values are possible, although phonetic encoding of names and other strings can be used to allow for some types of typographical variation and data errors. Methods A method is described which permits the calculation of a general similarity measure, the n-gram score, without having to reveal the data being compared, albeit at some cost in computation and data communication. This method can be combined with public key cryptography and automatic estimation of linkage model parameters to create an overall system for blindfolded record linkage. Results The system described offers good protection against misdeeds or security failures by any one party, but remains vulnerable to collusion between or simultaneous compromise of two or more parties involved in the linkage operation. In order to reduce the likelihood of this, the use of last-minute allocation of tasks to substitutable servers is proposed. Proof-of-concept computer programmes written in the Python programming language are provided to illustrate the similarity comparison protocol. Conclusion Although the protocols described in

  8. Building on the links between climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Vincent, K

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction are closely related. Both address the same risks as well as the same objectives when dealing with climate change impacts. This chapter discusses the linkages between these two - especially...

  9. Experimental Forests and climate change: views of long-term employees on ecological change and the role of Experimental Forests and Ranges in understanding and adapting to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laurie Yung; Mason Bradbury; Daniel R. Williams

    2012-01-01

    In this project, we examined the views of 21 long-term employees on climate change in 14 Rocky Mountain Research Station Experimental Forests and Ranges (EFRs). EFRs were described by employees as uniquely positioned to advance knowledge of climate change impacts and adaptation strategies due to the research integrity they provide for long-term studies, the ability to...

  10. Is There a Temperate Bias in Our Understanding of How Climate Change Will Alter Plant-Herbivore Interactions? A Meta-analysis of Experimental Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mundim, Fabiane M; Bruna, Emilio M

    2016-09-01

    Climate change can drive major shifts in community composition and interactions between resident species. However, the magnitude of these changes depends on the type of interactions and the biome in which they take place. We review the existing conceptual framework for how climate change will influence tropical plant-herbivore interactions and formalize a similar framework for the temperate zone. We then conduct the first biome-specific tests of how plant-herbivore interactions change in response to climate-driven changes in temperature, precipitation, ambient CO2, and ozone. We used quantitative meta-analysis to compare predicted and observed changes in experimental studies. Empirical studies were heavily biased toward temperate systems, so testing predicted changes in tropical plant-herbivore interactions was virtually impossible. Furthermore, most studies investigated the effects of CO2 with limited plant and herbivore species. Irrespective of location, most studies manipulated only one climate change factor despite the fact that different factors can act in synergy to alter responses of plants and herbivores. Finally, studies of belowground plant-herbivore interactions were also rare; those conducted suggest that climate change could have major effects on belowground subsystems. Our results suggest that there is a disconnection between the growing literature proposing how climate change will influence plant-herbivore interactions and the studies testing these predictions. General conclusions will also be hampered without better integration of above- and belowground systems, assessing the effects of multiple climate change factors simultaneously, and using greater diversity of species in experiments.

  11. Climate Change | Page 15 | IDRC - International Development ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Language English. Read more about Platform for Exchange between African Research Scientists and Policymakers on Climate Change Adaptation. Language English. Read more about Integrated Climate Change Modelling and Policy Linkages for Adaptive Planning. Language English. Read more about Valuing Water in ...

  12. Linkage disequilibrium and association mapping of drought ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Drought stress is a major abiotic stress that limits crop production. Molecular association mapping techniques through linkage disequilibrium (LD) can be effectively used to tag genomic regions involved in drought stress tolerance. With the association mapping approach, 90 genotypes of cotton Gossypium hirsutum, from ...

  13. Dialogic Linkage and Resonance in Autism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hobson, R. Peter; Hobson, Jessica A.; Garcia-Perez, Rosa; Du Bois, John

    2012-01-01

    We evaluated how children with autism make linguistic adjustments when talking with someone else. We devised two novel measures to assess (a) overall conversational linkage and (b) utterance-by-utterance resonance within dialogue between an adult and matched participants with and without autism (n = 12 per group). Participants with autism were…

  14. Haldane and the analysis of linkage

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Genetics; Volume 96; Issue 5. HALDANE AND THE ANALYSIS OF LINKAGE. J .H. Edwards. HALDANE AT 125 Volume 96 Issue 5 November 2017 pp 783-794. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link: http://www.ias.ac.in/article/fulltext/jgen/096/05/0783-0794. Abstract ...

  15. Producer Services, Manufacturing Linkages, and Trade

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.F. François (Joseph); J. Kepler; J. Woerz

    2007-01-01

    textabstractWorking with a mix of panel data on goods and services trade for the OECD for 1994-2004, combined with social accounts data (i.e. data on intermediate linkages) for 78 countries benchmarked to the panel midpoint, we examine the role of services as inputs in manufacturing, with a

  16. Utilizing linkage disequilibrium information from Indian Genome ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Utilizing linkage disequilibrium information from Indian Genome. Variation Database for mapping mutations: SCA12 case study. SAMIRA BAHL1, IKHLAK AHMED2, THE INDIAN GENOME VARIATION CONSORTIUM3 and MITALI MUKERJI1. 1Functional Genomics Unit, Institute of Genomics and Integrative Biology (CSIR), ...

  17. principles, realities and challenges regarding institutional linkages ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    p2333147

    (2) Compromise between proximity to community and effective coordination. If organisational linkage structures are to facilitate effective participation and ownership, it stands to reason that they should be as close to the grassroots community as possible. Unless community members regard such organisational structures as.

  18. agricultural research and extension linkage in ethiopia

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    AUA

    aimed at strengthening research and extension linkages will differ from country to country depending on historical working relationships between research and extension organisations as well as their organizational structures, responsiveness to the ever- growing challenges and how divergent or convergent their goals are ...

  19. Prospects for future climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1990-01-01

    The different climates of the past and model simulations of future climates convincingly indicate that the continuing emissions of greenhouse gases will lead to significant global warming and to changes in precipitation and other climatic variables. The projected changes in atmospheric composition and, consequently, in climatic conditions will be unique and more rapid than at any time in the past. The developing understanding of the chemical cycles controlling atmospheric composition and of the processes and behavior controlling the climate system can provide significant guidance about how the future climate will change. This chapter first summarizes the many scientific advances described in the preceding chapters that can help one better understand and describe the climate system and the resulting agricultural and hydrological impacts of these changes in climate. The chapter then draws from this understanding to outline the prospects for future climate

  20. Managing climate change refugia for climate adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toni Lyn Morelli; Christopher Daly; Solomon Z. Dobrowski; Deanna M. Dulen; Joseph L. Ebersole; Stephen T. Jackson; Jessica D. Lundquist; Connie Millar; Sean P. Maher; William B. Monahan; Koren R. Nydick; Kelly T. Redmond; Sarah C. Sawyer; Sarah Stock; Steven R. Beissinger

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that...

  1. Vocational Imagination and Labour Market Literacy: Young New Zealanders Making Education-Employment Linkages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Higgins, Jane; Nairn, Karen; Sligo, Judith

    2010-01-01

    This paper explores the concepts of vocational imagination and labour market literacy, arguing that these are important elements in the crafting of effective education-employment linkages. Evidence of truncated understandings of both is found in the talk of 93 young New Zealanders in transition from secondary school to their post-school lives. We…

  2. Genome-wide linkage and association mapping identify susceptibility alleles in ABCC4 for Kawasaki disease

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Khor, C.C.; Davila, S.; Shimizu, C.; Sheng, S.; Matsubara, T.; Suzuki, Y.; Newburger, J.W.; Baker, A.; Burgner, D.; Breunis, W.; Kuijpers, T.; Wright, V.J.; Levin, M.; Hibberd, M.L.; Burns, J.C.

    2011-01-01

    Kawasaki disease (KD) is a self limited vasculitis in which host genetics plays a prominent role. To further the understanding of the role of host genetics in KD, a three-stage genetic study was conducted that began with a family linkage study and ultimately involved more than 3000 individuals to

  3. Planetary climates (princeton primers in climate)

    CERN Document Server

    Ingersoll, Andrew

    2013-01-01

    This concise, sophisticated introduction to planetary climates explains the global physical and chemical processes that determine climate on any planet or major planetary satellite--from Mercury to Neptune and even large moons such as Saturn's Titan. Although the climates of other worlds are extremely diverse, the chemical and physical processes that shape their dynamics are the same. As this book makes clear, the better we can understand how various planetary climates formed and evolved, the better we can understand Earth's climate history and future.

  4. Detection of tandam duplications and implications for linkage analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matise, T.C.; Weeks, D.E. (Univ. of Pittsburgh, PA (United States)); Chakravarti, A. (Case Western Reserve Univ., Cleveland, OH (United States)); Patel, P.I.; Lupski, J.R. (Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX (United States)); Nelis, E.; Timmerman, V.; Van Broeckhoven, C. (Univ. of Antwerp (Belgium))

    1994-06-01

    The first demonstration of an autosomal dominant human disease caused by segmental trisomy came in 1991 for Charcot-Marie-Tooth disease type 1A (CMT1A). For this disorder, the segmental trisomy is due to a large tandem duplication of 1.5 Mb of DNA located on chromosome 17p11.2-p12. The search for the CMT1A disease gene was misdirected and impeded because some chromosome 17 genetic markers that are linked to CMT1A lie within this duplication. To better understand how such a duplication might affect genetic analyses in the context of disease gene mapping, the authors studied the effects of marker duplication on transmission probabilities of marker alleles, on linkage analysis of an autosomal dominant disease, and on tests of linkage homogeneity. They demonstrate that the undetected presence of a duplication distorts transmission ratios, hampers fine localization of the disease gene, and increases false evidence of linkage heterogeneity. In addition, they devised a likelihood-based method for detecting the presence of a tandemly duplicated marker when one is suspected. They tested their methods through computer simulations and on CMT1A pedigrees genotyped at several chromosome 17 markers. On the simulated data, the method detected 96% of duplicated markers (with a false-positive rate of 5%). On the CMT1A data the method successfully identified two of three loci that are duplicated (with no false positives). This method could be used to identify duplicated markers in other regions of the genome and could be used to delineate the extent of duplications similar to that involved in CMT1A. 18 refs., 5 figs., 6 tabs.

  5. Conference on climate and water. Vol. 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huttunen, L.

    1989-01-01

    This book contains the Proceedings of the Conference on Climate and Water under the following groupings: Understanding the climate systems - its variability and potential for change; Climate and hydrological cycle - the effects of climate variability and Change

  6. Climatic Extremes and Food Grain Production in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    A, A.; Mishra, V.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change is likely to affect food and water security in India. India has witnessed tremendous growth in its food production after the green revolution. However, during the recent decades the food grain yields were significantly affected by the extreme climate and weather events. Air temperature and associated extreme events (number of hot days and hot nights, heat waves) increased significantly during the last 50 years in the majority of India. More remarkably, a substantial increase in mean and extreme temperatures was observed during the winter season in India. On the other hand, India witnessed extreme flood and drought events that have become frequent during the past few decades. Extreme rainfall during the non-monsoon season adversely affected the food grain yields and results in tremendous losses in several parts of the country. Here we evaluate the changes in hydroclimatic extremes and its linkage with the food grain production in India. We use observed food grain yield data for the period of 1980-2012 at district level. We understand the linkages between food grain yield and crop phenology obtained from the high resolution leaf area index and NDVI datasets from satellites. We used long-term observed data of daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures to evaluate changes in the extreme events. We use statistical models to develop relationships between crop yields, mean and extreme temperatures for various crops to understand the sensitivity of these crops towards changing climatic conditions. We find that some of the major crop types and predominant crop growing areas have shown a significant sensitivity towards changes in extreme climatic conditions in India.

  7. Climate: from yesterday to tomorrow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Joussaume, S.

    1999-01-01

    Historical climatology and paleoclimatology aim at understanding the climatic memory of the Earth using geological and biological markers. These climate archives are used to understand the origins of climate changes in the past and to foresee the future climate changes according to the present day changes (global warming, greenhouse gases accumulation). (J.S.)

  8. Climate Change and Food Security in Tanzania: Analysis of Current ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    harvesting systems, weak research-extension- farmer linkages, rapid population growth, poor agricultural policies, inadequate application of agricultural technologies, poor agricultural practices, unreliable markets, crop pests and diseases, global energy demand, and climate change and variability (Ernhart and Twena,.

  9. Teaching Teaching & Understanding Understanding

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2006-01-01

    "Teaching Teaching & Understanding Understanding" is a 19-minute award-winning short-film about teaching at university and higher-level educational institutions. It is based on the "Constructive Alignment" theory developed by Prof. John Biggs. The film delivers a foundation for understanding what...

  10. Actors affecting the effectiveness of extension linkages between ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Actors affecting the effectiveness of extension linkages between agricultural development programmes (ADPs) and universites in South-Eastern Nigeria. ... as facilitators of linkage effectiveness, indicated that for linkages to be effective, all the physical, psychological and social factors of human relationships must be made to ...

  11. Projected future climate changes in the context of geological and geomorphological hazards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liggins, Felicity; Betts, Richard A; McGuire, Bill

    2010-05-28

    On palaeoclimate time scales, enhanced levels of geological and geomorphological activity have been linked to climatic factors, including examples of processes that are expected to be important in current and future anthropogenic climate change. Planetary warming leading to increased rainfall, ice-mass loss and rising sea levels is potentially relevant to geospheric responses in many geologically diverse regions. Anthropogenic climate change, therefore, has the potential to alter the risk of geological and geomorphological hazards through the twenty-first century and beyond. Here, we review climate change projections from both global and regional climate models in the context of geohazards. In assessing the potential for geospheric responses to climate change, it appears prudent to consider regional levels of warming of 2 degrees C above average pre-industrial temperature as being potentially unavoidable as an influence on processes requiring a human adaptation response within this century. At the other end of the scale when considering changes that could be avoided by reduction of emissions, scenarios of unmitigated warming exceeding 4 degrees C in the global average include much greater local warming in some regions. However, considerable further work is required to better understand the uncertainties associated with these projections, uncertainties inherent not only in the climate modelling but also in the linkages between climate change and geospheric responses.

  12. Integrating Climate and Ecosystem-Response Sciences in Temperate Western North American Mountains: The CIRMOUNT Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millar, C. I.; Fagre, D. B.

    2004-12-01

    Mountain regions are uniquely sensitive to changes in climate, vulnerable to climate effects on biotic and physical factors of intense social concern, and serve as critical early-warning systems of climate impacts. Escalating demands on western North American (WNA) mountain ecosystems increasingly stress both natural resources and rural community capacities; changes in mountain systems cascade to issues of national concern. Although WNA has long been a focus for climate- and climate-related environmental research, these efforts remain disciplinary and poorly integrated, hindering interpretation into policy and management. Knowledge is further hampered by lack of standardized climate monitoring stations at high-elevations in WNA. An initiative is emerging as the Consortium for Integrated Climate Research in Western Mountains (CIRMOUNT) whose primary goal is to improve knowledge of high-elevation climate systems and to better integrate physical, ecological, and social sciences relevant to climate change, ecosystem response, and natural-resource policy in WNA. CIRMOUNT seeks to focus research on climate variability and ecosystem response (progress in understanding synoptic scale processes) that improves interpretation of linkages between ecosystem functions and human processing (progress in understanding human-environment integration), which in turn would yield applicable information and understanding on key societal issues such as mountains as water towers, biodiversity, carbon forest sinks, and wildland hazards such as fire and forest dieback (progress in understanding ecosystem services and key thresholds). Achieving such integration depends first on implementing a network of high-elevation climate-monitoring stations, and linking these with integrated ecosystem-response studies. Achievements since 2003 include convening the 2004 Mountain Climate Sciences Symposium (1, 2) and several special sessions at technical conferences; initiating a biennial mountain climate

  13. Analysis of sulfidic linkages formed in natural rubber latex medical gloves by using X-ray absorption near edge structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chankrachang, M.; Limphirat, W.; Yongyingsakthavorn, P.; Nontakaew, U.; Tohsan, A.

    2017-09-01

    A study of sulfidic linkages formed in natural rubber (NR) latex medical gloves by using X-ray Absorption Near Edge Structure (XANES) is presented in this paper. The NR latex compound was prepared by using prevulcanization method, that is, it was prevulcanized at room temperature for 24 hrs before utilization. After the 24 hrs of prevulcanization, the latex film samples were obtained by dipping process. The dipped films were subjected to vulcanize at 110°C for 5 to 25 min. It was observed that after the compound was prevulcanized for 24 hrs, polysulfidic linkages were mainly formed in the sample. It was however found that after curing at 110°C for 5-25 min, the polysulfidic linkages are tended to change into disulfide linkages. Especially, in the case of 25 minutes cured sample, disulfide linkages are found to be the main linkages. In term of tensile strength, it was observed that when cure time increased from 5 - 10 min, tensile strengths were also increased. But when the cure time of the film is 25 minutes, tensile strength was slightly dropped. The dropped of tensile strength when cure time is longer than 10 minutes can be ascribed to a degradation of polysulfidic and disulfidic linkages during curing. Therefore, by using XANES analysis, it was found to be very useful to understand the cure characteristic, thus it can be very helpful to optimize cure time and tensile properties of the product.

  14. Have North-South Growth Linkages Changed?

    OpenAIRE

    Willy W. Hoffmaister; Mahmood Pradhan; Hossein Samiei

    1996-01-01

    This paper provides preliminary econometric evidence suggesting that the traditional trade-based business cycle linkages between the North and the South have changed. Many countries in the South, in particular in Asia, appear to have become more resilient to cyclical movements in the North, and to have come to play a more significant role in sustaining global activity, in particular during the 1991-93 slowdown. A number of factors may have contributed to these changes: improved domestic polic...

  15. Commodities and Linkages: Meeting the Policy Challenge

    OpenAIRE

    Kaplinsky, Raphael; Morris, Adam; Kaplan, David

    2011-01-01

    The results of detailed empirical enquiry into the nature and determinants of the breadth and depth of linkages in and out of the commodities sector in eight SSA countries (Angola, Botswana, Gabon, Ghana, Nigeria, South Africa Tanzania, and Zambia) and six sectors (copper, diamonds, gold, oil and gas, mining services and timber) has shown extensive scope for industrial development (MMCP DP 13, 2011). A primary conclusion of this research was that policy in both the private and public realm wa...

  16. JLIN: A java based linkage disequilibrium plotter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    McCaskie Pamela A

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A great deal of effort and expense are being expended internationally in attempts to detect genetic polymorphisms contributing to susceptibility to complex human disease. Techniques such as Linkage Disequilibrium mapping are being increasingly used to examine and compare markers across increasingly large datasets. Visualisation techniques are becoming essential to analyse the ever-growing volume of data and results available with any given analysis. Results JLIN (Java LINkage disequilibrium plotter is a software package designed for customisable, intuitive visualisation of Linkage Disequilibrium (LD across all common computing platforms. Customisation allows the user to choose particular visualisations, statistical measures and measurement ranges. JLIN also allows the user to export images of the LD visualisation in several common document formats. Conclusion JLIN allows the user to visually compare and contrast the results of a range of statistical measures on the input dataset(s. These measures include the commonly used D' and r2 statistics and empirical p-values. JLIN has a number of unique and novel features that improve on existing LD visualisation tools.

  17. Understanding Global Climate Change Effects on Annual Average Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) Concentrations in California Using 7-year Average Meteorology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahmud, A. A.; Hixson, M.; Zhao, Z.; Chen, S.; Kleeman, M. J.

    2009-12-01

    Climate change will transform meteorological patterns with unknown consequences for air quality in California. California’s extreme topography requires higher spatial resolution for climate-air quality studies compared to other regions of the United States. At the same time, the 7-year ENSO cycle requires long analysis periods in order to quantify climate impacts. The combination of these challenges results in a computationally intensive modeling problem that limits our ability to fully analyze climate impacts on California air quality. One possible approach to reduce this computational burden is to average several years of meteorological fields and then use these average inputs in a single set of air quality runs. The interactions between meteorology and air quality are non-linear, and so the averaging approach may introduce biases that need to be quantified. The objective of this research is to evaluate how upstream averaging of meteorological fields over several years influences air quality predictions in California. Hourly meteorological fields will be averaged over 7-years in the present-day (2000-2006) and the future (2047-2053). The meteorology for each period was down-scaled using the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) from the business-as-usual output generated by the Parallel Climate Model (PCM). Emissions of biogenic and mobile-source volatile organic carbons (VOC) will be processed using meteorological fields from individual years, and using the averaged meteorological data. The UCD source-oriented photochemical air quality model will be employed to study the global climate change effects on the annual average concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) throughout the entire state of California. The model predicts the size and composition distribution of airborne particulate matter in 15 size bins spanning the diameter range from 10nm - 10µm. The modeled concentrations from individual years will be averaged and compared with the concentrations

  18. The association between mid-facial morphology and climate in northeast Europe differs from that in north Asia: Implications for understanding the morphology of Late Pleistocene Homo sapiens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evteev, Andrej A; Movsesian, Alla A; Grosheva, Alexandra N

    2017-06-01

    The climate of northeastern Europe is likely to resemble in many ways Late Pleistocene periglacial conditions in Europe, but there have been relatively few studies exploring the association between climate and morphology in the mid-face of modern northeastern European populations. To fill this gap, we sampled 540 male skulls from 22 European and Near Eastern groups, including 314 skulls from 11 populations from northeastern Europe, to test for possible climate-morphology association at the continental scale. Our results found a moderate and highly significant association (R = 0.48, p = 0.0013, Mantel test) between sets of 23 mid-facial measurements and eight climatic variables. A partial least squares analysis revealed this association to be mostly driven by differences between groups from northeastern Europe and populations from the Mediterranean and the Caucasus. Matrices of between-group genetic distances based on Y-chromosome and mtDNA markers, as well as cranial non-metric and geographic distance matrices, were used to control for the possible influence of shared population history. Irrespective of which measure of neutral between-population distances is taken into account, the association between cranial variables and climate remains significant. The pattern of association between climate and morphology of the mid-face in western Eurasia was then compared to that in east and north Asia. Although differences between the two were found, there were also similarities that support existing functional interpretations of morphology for the bony parts of the upper airways. Last, in a preliminary analysis using a reduced set of measurements, mid-facial morphology of several Upper Paleolithic European Homo sapiens specimens was found to be more similar to groups from northern and northeastern Europe than to southern European populations. Thus, the population of northeastern Europe rather than east and north Asian groups should be used as a model when studying

  19. Documenting observed climate variations and changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karl, T.R.

    1994-01-01

    Evidence suggests that scientists are still incapable of resolving many characteristics of long-term environmental variation. This problem is especially chronic with respect to data from operational multipurpose monitoring systems, which are critical to documenting long-term climate change. Several recurring problems can be attributed to inadequate data quality and to continuity, communication systems, and data management. These problems are unlikely to be resolved until mechanisms are instituted and implemented to establish direct linkages between operational monitoring systems and the requirements of the United States Global Climate Research Program (USGCRP). A strong national commitment is required. The challenge is clear: ensure that operational single and multiple use monitoring systems of special interest to climate change deliver data of sufficient quality, homogeneity, and continuity to document, understand, and predict global change and its impact on humans and vice versa. If this challenge is not met now, the ability to detect global environmental changes in the future will be seriously compromised. 48 refs., 22 figs., 1 tab

  20. Climate change, cranes, and temperate floodplain ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Sammy L.

    2010-01-01

    Floodplain ecosystems provide important habitat to cranes globally. Lateral, longitudinal, vertical, and temporal hydrologic connectivity in rivers is essential to maintaining the functions and values of these systems. Agricultural development, flood control, water diversions, dams, and other anthropogenic activities have greatly affected hydrologic connectivity of river systems worldwide and altered the functional capacity of these systems. Although the specific effects of climate change in any given area are unknown, increased intensity and frequency of flooding and droughts and increased air and water temperatures are among many potential effects that can act synergistically with existing human modifications in these systems to create even greater challenges in maintaining ecosystem productivity. In this paper, I review basic hydrologic and geomorphic processes of river systems and use three North American rivers (Guadalupe, Platte, and Rio Grande) that are important to cranes as case studies to illustrate the challenges facing managers tasked with balancing the needs of cranes and people in the face of an uncertain climatic future. Each river system has unique natural and anthropogenic characteristics that will affect conservation strategies. Mitigating the effects of climate change on river systems necessitates an understanding of river/floodplain/landscape linkages, which include people and their laws as well as existing floodplain ecosystem conditions.

  1. Understanding how lake populations of arctic char are structured and function with special consideration of the potential effects of climate change: a multi-faceted approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budy, Phaedra; Luecke, Chris

    2014-09-01

    Size dimorphism in fish populations, both its causes and consequences, has been an area of considerable focus; however, uncertainty remains whether size dimorphism is dynamic or stabilizing and about the role of exogenous factors. Here, we explored patterns among empirical vital rates, population structure, abundance and trend, and predicted the effects of climate change on populations of arctic char (Salvelinus alpinus) in two lakes. Both populations cycle dramatically between dominance by small (≤300 mm) and large (>300 mm) char. Apparent survival (Φ) and specific growth rates (SGR) were relatively high (40-96%; SGR range 0.03-1.5%) and comparable to those of conspecifics at lower latitudes. Climate change scenarios mimicked observed patterns of warming and resulted in temperatures closer to optimal for char growth (15.15 °C) and a longer growing season. An increase in consumption rates (28-34%) under climate change scenarios led to much greater growth rates (23-34%). Higher growth rates predicted under climate change resulted in an even greater predicted amplitude of cycles in population structure as well as an increase in reproductive output (Ro) and decrease in generation time (Go). Collectively, these results indicate arctic char populations (not just individuals) are extremely sensitive to small changes in the number of ice-free days. We hypothesize years with a longer growing season, predicted to occur more often under climate change, produce elevated growth rates of small char and act in a manner similar to a "resource pulse," allowing a sub-set of small char to "break through," thus setting the cycle in population structure.

  2. Climate Change and Sustainable Development: Realizing the Opportunity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robinson, John; Bradley, Mike; Busby, Peter; Connor, Denis; Murray, Anne

    2006-01-01

    Manifold linkages exist between climate change and sustainable development. Although these are starting to receive attention in the climate exchange literature, the focus has typically been on examining sustainable development through a climate change lens, rather than vice versa. And there has been little systematic examination of how these linkages may be fostered in practice. This paper examines climate change through a sustainable development lens. To illustrate how this might change the approach to climate change issues, it reports on the findings of a panel of business, local government, and academic representatives in British Columbia, Canada, who were appointed to advise the provincial government on climate change policy. The panel found that sustainable development may offer a significantly more fruitful way to pursue climate policy goals than climate policy itself. The paper discusses subsequent climate change developments in the province and makes suggestions as how best to pursue such a sustainability approach in British Columbia and other jurisdictions

  3. Genome-wide Linkage Disequilibrium Linkage Analysis (LDLA) of Body Fat Traits in an F2 Porcine Model for Human Obesity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pant, Sameer Dinkar; Karlskov-Mortensen, Peter; Cirera Salicio, Susanna

    , body composition was determined at about two months of age (64 ± 11 days) via dual-energy xray absorptiometry (DXA) scanning. All pigs were genotyped using Illumina Porcine 60k SNP Beadchip and a combined LDLA approach was used to perform genomewide linkage and association analysis for body fat traits...... provide novel insights that may further the current understanding of the molecular mechanisms underlying human obesity....

  4. Simulation of landscape disturbances and the effect of climatic change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baker, W.L.

    1993-01-29

    The purpose of this research is to understand how changes in climate may affect the structure of landscapes that are subject to periodic disturbances. A general model useful for examining the linkage between climatic change and landscape change has been developed. The model makes use of synoptic climatic data, a geographical information system (GRASS), field data on the location of disturbance patches, simulation code written in the SIMSCRIPT language, and a set of landscape structure analysis programs written specifically for this research project. A simplified version of the model, lacking the climatic driver, has been used to analyze how changes in disturbance regimes (in this case settlement and fire suppression) affect landscape change. Landscape change lagged in its response to changes in the disturbance regime, but the lags differed depending upon the character of the change and the particular measure considered. The model will now be modified for use in a specific setting to analyze the effects of changes in climate on the structure of flood-disturbed patches along the Animas River, Colorado.

  5. Simulation of landscape disturbances and the effect of climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baker, W.L.

    1993-01-01

    The purpose of this research is to understand how changes in climate may affect the structure of landscapes that are subject to periodic disturbances. A general model useful for examining the linkage between climatic change and landscape change has been developed. The model makes use of synoptic climatic data, a geographical information system (GRASS), field data on the location of disturbance patches, simulation code written in the SIMSCRIPT language, and a set of landscape structure analysis programs written specifically for this research project. A simplified version of the model, lacking the climatic driver, has been used to analyze how changes in disturbance regimes (in this case settlement and fire suppression) affect landscape change. Landscape change lagged in its response to changes in the disturbance regime, but the lags differed depending upon the character of the change and the particular measure considered. The model will now be modified for use in a specific setting to analyze the effects of changes in climate on the structure of flood-disturbed patches along the Animas River, Colorado

  6. Collaborative Project. Understanding the effects of tides and eddies on the ocean dynamics, sea ice cover and decadal/centennial climate prediction using the Regional Arctic Climate Model (RACM)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hutchings, Jennifer [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States); Joseph, Renu [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States)

    2013-09-14

    The goal of this project is to develop an eddy resolving ocean model (POP) with tides coupled to a sea ice model (CICE) within the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) to investigate the importance of ocean tides and mesoscale eddies in arctic climate simulations and quantify biases associated with these processes and how their relative contribution may improve decadal to centennial arctic climate predictions. Ocean, sea ice and coupled arctic climate response to these small scale processes will be evaluated with regard to their influence on mass, momentum and property exchange between oceans, shelf-basin, ice-ocean, and ocean-atmosphere. The project will facilitate the future routine inclusion of polar tides and eddies in Earth System Models when computing power allows. As such, the proposed research addresses the science in support of the BER’s Climate and Environmental Sciences Division Long Term Measure as it will improve the ocean and sea ice model components as well as the fully coupled RASM and Community Earth System Model (CESM) and it will make them more accurate and computationally efficient.

  7. Hydroclimatic shifts recorded in peat archive from Rąbień mire (Central Poland) - better understanding of past climate changes using multidisciplinary approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Słowiński, Michał; Marcisz, Katarzyna; Płóciennik, Mateusz; Obremska, Milena; Pawłowski, Dominik; Okupny, Daniel; Słowińska, Sandra; Borówka, Ryszard; Kittel, Piotr; Forysiak, Jacek; Michczyńska, Danuta J.; Lamentowicz, Mariusz

    2016-04-01

    Hydrological changes are main drivers of the processes occurring in the peatland ecosystem, e.g. organic matter accumulation and decomposition. Hydroclimatic changes in mires are caused by various non-climatic factors, such as hydroseral succession or land use changes. Central Europe, namely Poland, is characterized by a transitional climate with influence o both continental and Atlantic air masses, which makes a this region a very sensitive to climate change. Here we explore a potential of multidisciplinary approach in reconstruction of past climate change and particularly hydroclimatic conditions which control in Sphagnum peatland ecosystem. We reconstructed 3300 years (between 3,500 BC and 200 BC) history of development of Rąbień mire using several biotic proxies (pollen, plant macrofossils, testate amoebae, Cladocera, Chironomidae) and geochemistry. Study site - Rąbień mire (area 42 ha) is located in central Poland and it is protected nature reserve. The origin of the mire depression is connected with the development of the thermokarst basin isolated by dunes. Rąbień mire is limnogenic, i.e. formed by the process of terrestrialisation of a water body and thickness of biogenic deposits is 6.2 m (440 cm of lacustrine sediment and 180 cm of peat). Our results demonstrate the high potential of Rąbień peat record for reconstructing the palaeohydrological dynamics. The studied time interval is characterized by two pronounced dry periods: ~2,500 to ~1,700 cal. BC and ~800 to ~600 cal. BC, and two periods of significant increases in water table: ~1,100 to ~800 cal. BC and ~600 to ~250 cal. BC. The timing of the wet shift at 600 cal. BC corresponds to wet periods in different sites from Central and Eastern Europe. Our investigation reveals a complex pattern of proxies, what might be linked to the past atmospheric circulation patterns. Extreme hydroclimatic conditions most possibly had a direct impact on the functioning of peatland ecosystems. What has been

  8. Spin Transfer in Polymer Degradation of Abnormal Linkage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Tianrong; Tian, Chuanjin; Liu, Xizhe; Wang, Jia; Gao, Yang; Wang, Zhigang

    2017-07-01

    The degradation of polymer materials plays an important role in production and life. In this work, the degradation mechanism of poly-α-methylstyrene (PAMS) tetramers with abnormal linkage was investigated by using density functional theory (DFT). Calculated results indicate that the head-to-head and the tail-to-tail reactions needed to overcome the energy barriers are about 0.15 eV and about 1.26 eV, respectively. The broken C-C bond at the unsaturated end of the chain leads to the dissociation of alpha-methylstyrene (AMS) monomers one by one. Furthermore, the analyses of bond characteristics are in good agreement with the results of energy barriers. In addition, the spin population analysis presents an interesting net spin transfer process in depolymerization reactions. We hope that the current theoretical results provide useful help to understand the degradation mechanism of polymers.

  9. Integrating Remote Sensing, Field Observations, and Models to Understand Disturbance and Climate Effects on the Carbon Balance of the West Coast U.S.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cohen, Warren [USDA Forest Service

    2014-07-03

    As an element of NACP research, the proposed investigation is a two pronged approach that derives and evaluates a regional carbon (C) budget for Oregon, Washington, and California. Objectives are (1) Use multiple data sources, including AmeriFlux data, inventories, and multispectral remote sensing data to investigate trends in carbon storage and exchanges of CO2 and water with variation in climate and disturbance history; (2) Develop and apply regional modeling that relies on these multiple data sources to reduce uncertainty in spatial estimates of carbon storage and NEP, and relative contributions of terrestrial ecosystems and anthropogenic emissions to atmospheric CO2 in the region; (3) Model terrestrial carbon processes across the region, using the Biome-BGC terrestrial ecosystem model, and an atmospheric inverse modeling approach to estimate variation in rate and timing of terrestrial uptake and feedbacks to the atmosphere in response to climate and disturbance.

  10. Integrating Remote Sensing, Field Observations, and Models to Understand Disturbance and Climate Effects on the Carbon Balance of the West Coast U.S., Final Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beverly E. Law

    2011-10-05

    As an element of NACP research, the proposed investigation is a two pronged approach that derives and evaluates a regional carbon (C) budget for Oregon, Washington, and California. Objectives are (1) Use multiple data sources, including AmeriFlux data, inventories, and multispectral remote sensing data to investigate trends in carbon storage and exchanges of CO2 and water with variation in climate and disturbance history; (2) Develop and apply regional modeling that relies on these multiple data sources to reduce uncertainty in spatial estimates of carbon storage and NEP, and relative contributions of terrestrial ecosystems and anthropogenic emissions to atmospheric CO2 in the region; (3) Model terrestrial carbon processes across the region, using the Biome-BGC terrestrial ecosystem model, and an atmospheric inverse modeling approach to estimate variation in rate and timing of terrestrial uptake and feedbacks to the atmosphere in response to climate and disturbance.

  11. Science cafés for a sustainable future. Transdisciplinary communication to understand the impacts of climate change on cultural heritage in the Danube River Basin

    OpenAIRE

    Ádám, János Imre; Cerovac, Ivan; Gajinov, Tamara; Kalina, Veronika; Paris, Laura; Zwitter, Žiga

    2015-01-01

    The project addresses lack of transdisciplinary research in dealing with impacts of climate change on cultural heritage in the Danube River Basin, which are not sufficiently understood by science and inadequately treated by routine. Fostering mutual learning between lay public, policy-makers and scientists will lead to an improved state of the art in science, to more effective policies and to a raised lay public’s awareness of this real world problem. We aim to address these issue...

  12. Pressure-Induced Shifts in Trophic Linkages in a Simplified Aquatic Food Web

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maarten Schrama

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available It is essential to understand effects of existing and emerging anthropogenic stressors on the structure of aquatic food webs in more natural settings, to obtain realistic predictions on how they can affect major ecosystem properties and functioning. We therefore examined whether (1 realistic concentrations of key agricultural pesticides and nutrients induce shifts in trophic linkages (2 observed changes in trophic linkages are qualitatively different between the green (algal-based and brown (detritus-based part of the food web. To this end, we exposed a simplified, yet realistic freshwater invertebrate community to environmentally relevant concentrations of three anthropogenic pressures (eutrophication; the herbicide terbuthylazine; and the insecticide imidacloprid in a full factorial mesocosm design. Trophic linkages and the changes therein were assessed measuring stable isotopes of natural carbon and nitrogen. Results show that the green and brown part of the food web react qualitatively different to interacting pressures. Whereas, herbivorous species react mainly to the nutrients and herbicides and the synergistic interaction between these, species in the detritivore part of the food web were affected by insecticide applications and interactions with nutrients. These results suggest that agricultural pressures can induce shifts in trophic linkages, but that they can have contrasting effects on the different parts of the food web. Such antagonistic and synergistic interactions can provide powerful explanations for observed responses of ecosystems to interacting stressors. These findings may have important implications for our understanding on interactions of agricultural stressors and their propagation in aquatic food webs.

  13. Climate-Induced Thresholds In Lake-Watershed Systems: Understanding The Compounding Effects Of Early Ice-Out And Episodic Nutrient Loadings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jain, S.; Beyene, M. T.

    2017-12-01

    In temperate regions, the sustainability of lake-watershed systems is intimately tied to the climate, ice phenology, annual march of human activities, and biophysical dynamics. Using the state of Maine in the United States as our focal region, one with over 5000 lakes. The recent rise in water temperatures, drop in water quality, depletion of fish stocks has raised concerns over the future state of these lakes. This study takes the "social-ecological systems" view of Maine lakes with focus on climate-induced shifts in the ice-cover duration. The resulting readjustments in the nutrient load assimilation, decrease in lake water quantity, increased radiative heating on phytoplankton productivity and economic and other losses to the community due to cancellation of winter recreation opportunities have the potential to reshape this vulnerable system. We use conceptual models, delineated social-ecological system, empirical-statistical analyses to grasp the complexity of this multifaceted system. Prospects for seasonal climate predictability and impact of the future trajectories of El Nino/Southern Oscillation are also discussed.

  14. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morelli, Toni Lyn; Daly, Christopher; Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Dulen, Deanna M; Ebersole, Joseph L; Jackson, Stephen T; Lundquist, Jessica D; Millar, Constance I; Maher, Sean P; Monahan, William B; Nydick, Koren R; Redmond, Kelly T; Sawyer, Sarah C; Stock, Sarah; Beissinger, Steven R

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change.

  15. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daly, Christopher; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Dulen, Deanna M.; Ebersole, Joseph L.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Lundquist, Jessica D.; Millar, Constance I.; Maher, Sean P.; Monahan, William B.; Nydick, Koren R.; Redmond, Kelly T.; Sawyer, Sarah C.; Stock, Sarah; Beissinger, Steven R.

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change. PMID:27509088

  16. Managing climate change refugia for climate adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morelli, Toni L.; Jackson, Stephen T.

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for