WorldWideScience

Sample records for understand climate linkages

  1. Identifying and Mapping Linkages between Actors in the Climate ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Promoting innovations in climate change requires innovation partnerships and linkages and also creating an enabling environment for actors. The paper reviewed available information on the identification and mapping of linkages between actors in the climate change innovation system. The findings showed different ...

  2. Understanding linkages between global climate indices and terrestrial water storage changes over Africa using GRACE products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anyah, R O; Forootan, E; Awange, J L; Khaki, M

    2018-09-01

    Africa, a continent endowed with huge water resources that sustain its agricultural activities is increasingly coming under threat from impacts of climate extremes (droughts and floods), which puts the very precious water resource into jeopardy. Understanding the relationship between climate variability and water storage over the continent, therefore, is paramount in order to inform future water management strategies. This study employs Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite data and the higher order (fourth order cumulant) statistical independent component analysis (ICA) method to study the relationship between terrestrial water storage (TWS) changes and five global climate-teleconnection indices; El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) over Africa for the period 2003-2014. Pearson correlation analysis is applied to extract the connections between these climate indices (CIs) and TWS, from which some known strong CI-rainfall relationships (e.g., over equatorial eastern Africa) are found. Results indicate unique linear-relationships and regions that exhibit strong linkages between CIs and TWS. Moreover, unique regions having strong CI-TWS connections that are completely different from the typical ENSO-rainfall connections over eastern and southern Africa are also identified. Furthermore, the results indicate that the first dominant independent components (IC) of the CIs are linked to NAO, and are characterized by significant reductions of TWS over southern Africa. The second dominant ICs are associated with IOD and are characterized by significant increases in TWS over equatorial eastern Africa, while the combined ENSO and MJO are apparently linked to the third ICs, which are also associated with significant increase in TWS changes over both southern Africa, as well as equatorial eastern Africa. Copyright © 2018

  3. Applying Topographic Classification, Based on the Hydrological Process, to Design Habitat Linkages for Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongwon Mo

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The use of biodiversity surrogates has been discussed in the context of designing habitat linkages to support the migration of species affected by climate change. Topography has been proposed as a useful surrogate in the coarse-filter approach, as the hydrological process caused by topography such as erosion and accumulation is the basis of ecological processes. However, some studies that have designed topographic linkages as habitat linkages, so far have focused much on the shape of the topography (morphometric topographic classification with little emphasis on the hydrological processes (generic topographic classification to find such topographic linkages. We aimed to understand whether generic classification was valid for designing these linkages. First, we evaluated whether topographic classification is more appropriate for describing actual (coniferous and deciduous and potential (mammals and amphibians habitat distributions. Second, we analyzed the difference in the linkages between the morphometric and generic topographic classifications. The results showed that the generic classification represented the actual distribution of the trees, but neither the morphometric nor the generic classification could represent the potential animal distributions adequately. Our study demonstrated that the topographic classes, according to the generic classification, were arranged successively according to the flow of water, nutrients, and sediment; therefore, it would be advantageous to secure linkages with a width of 1 km or more. In addition, the edge effect would be smaller than with the morphometric classification. Accordingly, we suggest that topographic characteristics, based on the hydrological process, are required to design topographic linkages for climate change.

  4. Review of scientific linkages and interactions between climate change and air quality, with implications for air quality management in South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Thambiran, Tirusha

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available In recent years there has been considerable advancement in our scientific understanding of the linkages and interactions between climate change and air quality. A warmer, evolving climate is likely to have severe consequences for air quality due...

  5. A review of scientifc linkages and interactions between climate change and air quality, with implications for air quality management in South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tirusha Thambiran

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available In recent years there has been considerable advancement in our scientifc understanding of the linkages and interactions between climate change and air quality. A warmer, evolving climate is likely to have severe consequences for air quality due to impacts on pollution sources and meteorology. Climate-induced changes to sources of tropospheric ozone precursor gases and to atmospheric circulation are likely to lead to changes in both the concentration and dispersion of near-surface ozone that could act to offset improvements in air quality. The control of air pollutants through air quality management is also likely to impact on climate change, with reductions in ozone, particulate matter and sulphur dioxide being of particular interest. The improved understanding of the relationship between air quality and climate change provides a scientific basis for policy interventions. After a review of the scientific linkages, the potential to include climate change considerations in air quality management planning processes in South Africa was examined.

  6. Review of the Linkages between Gender Equity and Climate ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Review of the Linkages between Gender Equity and Climate Change Issues in ... thereby exacerbating inequalities in health status and access to adequate food, clean ... Again, in traditional societies, women are even more vulnerable to the ...

  7. The linkage among ambulance transports, death and climate parameters in Asahikawa City, Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kataoka, Hiroaki; Mochimasu, Kazumi Dokai; Katayama, Akihiko; Kanda, Kanae Oda; Sakano, Noriko; Tanaka, Keiko; Miyatake, Nobuyuki

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the linkage among climate parameters, total ambulance transports and the number of deaths in Asahikawa City in northern Japan. Monthly data on total ambulance transports and the number of deaths from January 2004 to December 2011 were obtained from Asahikawa City Fire Department and the Asahikawa City official website. Climate parameters for the required period were also obtained from the Japan Meteorological Agency, Japan. To adjust for the population, we also used monthly population data on Asahikawa City. The linkage among climate parameters, total ambulance transports and the number of deaths was evaluated by ecological analysis. The mean air temperature in the Asahikawa area was 7.3 ± 10.1 °C. Total ambulance transports (/a hundred thousand people/day) and the number of deaths (/a hundred thousand people/day) were 10.0 ± 0.6 and 2.6 ± 0.3, respectively. Using quadratic curves, total ambulance transports and the number of deaths were weakly correlated with some climate parameters. The number of deaths was weakly and positively correlated with total ambulance transports. A weak linkage among climate parameters, total ambulance transports and the number of deaths was noted in Asahikawa City, Japan. However, these associations were not as high as expected.

  8. Transformational leadership climate : Performance linkages, mechanisms, and boundary conditions at the organizational level

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Menges, J.; Walter, F.; Vogel, B.; Bruch, H.

    2011-01-01

    Transformational leadership (TFL) climate describes the degree to which leaders throughout an organization engage in TFL behaviors. In this study, we investigate performance linkages, mechanisms, and boundary conditions of TFL climate at the organizational level of analysis. In a sample of 158

  9. Climate and development: enhancing impact through stronger linkages in the implementation of the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomez-Echeverri, Luis

    2018-05-01

    One of the greatest achievements in the global negotiations of 2015 that delivered the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development or Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Paris Agreement on climate change is that, for the first time, the linkages between climate and development were enshrined in each of the documents. This was done in recognition that climate change and development need to be addressed together in order not only to avoid harmful trade-offs and high costs, particularly for poorer countries, but also to exploit the benefits that come from strengthening these linkages. This review presents some of the latest data that argue for stronger linkages as well as the challenges of implementation which are not only politically and economically related but also include issues such as knowledge gaps, finance and governance. Finally, the review also presents a glimpse at the pathways that will be required to reach the ambitious global temperature targets of the Paris Agreement of less than 2°C above pre-industrial levels with efforts to limit temperature rise even further to 1.5°C. This provides the context for some conclusions and recommendations for policy-makers, including on methodologies for assessing linkages and leveraging them for greater benefit. This article is part of the theme issue `The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

  10. Climate and development: enhancing impact through stronger linkages in the implementation of the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomez-Echeverri, Luis

    2018-05-13

    One of the greatest achievements in the global negotiations of 2015 that delivered the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development or Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Paris Agreement on climate change is that, for the first time, the linkages between climate and development were enshrined in each of the documents. This was done in recognition that climate change and development need to be addressed together in order not only to avoid harmful trade-offs and high costs, particularly for poorer countries, but also to exploit the benefits that come from strengthening these linkages. This review presents some of the latest data that argue for stronger linkages as well as the challenges of implementation which are not only politically and economically related but also include issues such as knowledge gaps, finance and governance. Finally, the review also presents a glimpse at the pathways that will be required to reach the ambitious global temperature targets of the Paris Agreement of less than 2°C above pre-industrial levels with efforts to limit temperature rise even further to 1.5°C. This provides the context for some conclusions and recommendations for policy-makers, including on methodologies for assessing linkages and leveraging them for greater benefit.This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'. © 2018 The Authors.

  11. Linkages among Key Actors in the Climate Change and Food ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Sierra Leone and Liberia, but a low linkage index of less than 2 between farmers and policy making bodies for all the countries. Poor generation of innovations over the past ten years and poor domestic support for climate change adaptation and food security in the West African sub-region were identified. The study points to ...

  12. Holocene Glacier Fluctuations in the Peruvian Andes Indicate Northern Climate Linkages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Licciardi, Joseph M.; Schaefer, Joerg M.; Taggart, Jean R.; Lund, David C.

    2009-09-01

    The role of the tropics in triggering, transmitting, and amplifying interhemispheric climate signals remains a key debate in paleoclimatology. Tropical glacier fluctuations provide important insight on regional paleoclimatic trends and forcings, but robust chronologies are scarce. Here, we report precise moraine ages from the Cordillera Vilcabamba (13°20‧S) of southern Peru that indicate prominent glacial events and associated climatic shifts in the outer tropics during the early Holocene and late in the “Little Ice Age” period. Our glacier chronologies differ from the New Zealand record but are broadly correlative with well-dated glacial records in Europe, suggesting climate linkages between the tropics and the North Atlantic region.

  13. Climate change and its linkages with development, equity and sustainability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Munasinghe, M.; Swart, R.

    2000-01-01

    The IPCC Working Groups 2 and 3 (on impacts and adaptation, and on mitigation, respectively) have taken the initiative to organise a number of expert meetings. The main goals of the meetings are: (a) to increase co-ordination among, and inform lead authors about development, equity and sustainability (DES) issues and climate change; and (b) to better place the IPCC Third Assessment Report in the context of DES, through enhanced access to the best available scientific, technical economic and social information from across the world. The rapidly growing economies of Asia will play a key role in determining future climate change policy. Thus, the organisation of the first expert meeting in Colombo, Sri Lanka, under the able guidance of Professor Mohan Munasinghe, is very appropriate. The conference has provided a crucial first step towards broadening the scope of the IPCC reports, by integrating DES issues into climate change response strategies. This Proceedings volume is also important as a key policy-relevant (but not policy-prescriptive) vehicle that will better inform worldwide networks of scientists from different regional, cultural and disciplinary backgrounds, in their pursuit of the best scientific information on the linkages between climate change and sustainable development. refs

  14. Understanding climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fellous, J.L.; Gautier, C.; Andre, J.C.; Balstad, R.; Boucher, O.; Brasseur, G.; Chahine, M.T.; Chanin, M.L.; Ciais, P.; Corell, W.; Duplessy, J.C.; Hourcade, J.C.; Jouzel, J.; Kaufman, Y.J.; Laval, K.; Le Treut, H.; Minster, J.F.; Moore, B. III; Morel, P.; Rasool, S.I.; Remy, F.; Smith, R.C.; Somerville, R.C.J.; Wood, E.F.; Wood, H.; Wunsch, C.

    2007-01-01

    Climatic change is gaining ground and with no doubt is stimulated by human activities. It is therefore urgent to better understand its nature, importance and potential impacts. The chapters of this book have been written by US and French experts of the global warming question. After a description of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, GIEC in French) consensus, they present the past and present researches on each of the main component of the climate system, on the question of climatic change impacts and on the possible answers. The conclusion summarizes the results of each chapter. Content: presentation of the IPCC; greenhouse effect, radiation balance and clouds; atmospheric aerosols and climatic change; global water cycle and climate; influence of climatic change on the continental hydrologic cycle; ocean and climate; ice and climate; global carbon cycle; about some impacts of climatic change on Europe and the Atlantic Ocean; interaction between atmospheric chemistry and climate; climate and society, the human dimension. (J.S.)

  15. Linkage of anthropogenic aerosol to clouds and climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hudson, J.G.

    1992-01-01

    This progress report describes the monitoring being done to validate a linkage of anthropogenic aerosol to clouds and climate. Equipment and findings are reported. The equipment construction called for in the original proposal has now been competed. These instruments are the high temperature processor, the data acquisition system for the direct Royco optical particle counter (OPC), and modifications to the formvar replicator. The main field effort during the past year has been the shipboard experiment SEAHUNT (Shiptrail Evolution Above High Updraft Naval Targets). There were also some laboratory and local ambient particle measurements and a surface field program on and near the California coast. The shipboard project was not anticipated in the original proposal but the laboratory and surface measurements were along the lines suggested in the original proposal

  16. Application of Characterization, Modeling, and Analytics Towards Understanding Process Structure Linkages in Metallic 3D Printing (Postprint)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-08-01

    METALLIC 3D PRINTING (POSTPRINT) M.A. Groeber, E. Schwalbach, S. Donegan, K. Chaput, T. Butler, and J. Miller AFRL/RX 27 JULY...MODELING, AND ANALYTICS TOWARDS UNDERSTANDING PROCESS- STRUCTURE LINKAGES IN METALLIC 3D PRINTING (POSTPRINT) 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER IN-HOUSE 5b...characterization, modelling, and analytics towards understanding process-structure linkages in metallic 3D printing M A Groeber, E Schwalbach, S Donegan, K

  17. The western arctic linkage experiment (WALE): overview and synthesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    A.D. McGuire; J. Walsh; J.S. Kimball; J.S. Clein; S.E. Euskirdhen; S. Drobot; U.C. Herzfeld; J. Maslanik; R.B. Lammers; M.A. Rawlins; C.J. Vorosmarty; T.S. Rupp; W. Wu; M. Calef

    2008-01-01

    The primary goal of the Western Arctic Linkage Experiment (WALE) was to better understand uncertainties of simulated hydrologic and ecosystem dynamics of the western Arctic in the context of 1) uncertainties in the data available to drive the models and 2) different approaches to simulating regional hydrology and ecosystem dynamics. Analyses of datasets on climate...

  18. Advancing the climate agenda: Exploiting material and institutional linkages to develop a menu of policy options

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Asselt, H.D.; Gupta, J.; Biermann, F.

    2005-01-01

    The utilization of interlinkages of existing material and the strengthening and promotion of new institutional interlinkages can widen the climate change agenda through new and innovative policy and legal measures. Material linkages are inherent structural connections between policy domains that are

  19. Above- and belowground linkages in Sphagnum peatland: climate warming affects plant-microbial interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jassey, Vincent E J; Chiapusio, Geneviève; Binet, Philippe; Buttler, Alexandre; Laggoun-Défarge, Fatima; Delarue, Frédéric; Bernard, Nadine; Mitchell, Edward A D; Toussaint, Marie-Laure; Francez, André-Jean; Gilbert, Daniel

    2013-03-01

    Peatlands contain approximately one third of all soil organic carbon (SOC). Warming can alter above- and belowground linkages that regulate soil organic carbon dynamics and C-balance in peatlands. Here we examine the multiyear impact of in situ experimental warming on the microbial food web, vegetation, and their feedbacks with soil chemistry. We provide evidence of both positive and negative impacts of warming on specific microbial functional groups, leading to destabilization of the microbial food web. We observed a strong reduction (70%) in the biomass of top-predators (testate amoebae) in warmed plots. Such a loss caused a shortening of microbial food chains, which in turn stimulated microbial activity, leading to slight increases in levels of nutrients and labile C in water. We further show that warming altered the regulatory role of Sphagnum-polyphenols on microbial community structure with a potential inhibition of top predators. In addition, warming caused a decrease in Sphagnum cover and an increase in vascular plant cover. Using structural equation modelling, we show that changes in the microbial food web affected the relationships between plants, soil water chemistry, and microbial communities. These results suggest that warming will destabilize C and nutrient recycling of peatlands via changes in above- and belowground linkages, and therefore, the microbial food web associated with mosses will feedback positively to global warming by destabilizing the carbon cycle. This study confirms that microbial food webs thus constitute a key element in the functioning of peatland ecosystems. Their study can help understand how mosses, as ecosystem engineers, tightly regulate biogeochemical cycling and climate feedback in peatlands. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  20. Climate change 101 : understanding and responding to global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    To inform the climate change dialogue, the Pew Center on Global Climate Change and the Pew Center on the States have developed a series of brief reports entitled Climate Change 101: Understanding and Responding to Global Climate Change. These reports...

  1. Linkages among climate change, crop yields and Mexico-US cross-border migration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Shuaizhang; Krueger, Alan B; Oppenheimer, Michael

    2010-08-10

    Climate change is expected to cause mass human migration, including immigration across international borders. This study quantitatively examines the linkages among variations in climate, agricultural yields, and people's migration responses by using an instrumental variables approach. Our method allows us to identify the relationship between crop yields and migration without explicitly controlling for all other confounding factors. Using state-level data from Mexico, we find a significant effect of climate-driven changes in crop yields on the rate of emigration to the United States. The estimated semielasticity of emigration with respect to crop yields is approximately -0.2, i.e., a 10% reduction in crop yields would lead an additional 2% of the population to emigrate. We then use the estimated semielasticity to explore the potential magnitude of future emigration. Depending on the warming scenarios used and adaptation levels assumed, with other factors held constant, by approximately the year 2080, climate change is estimated to induce 1.4 to 6.7 million adult Mexicans (or 2% to 10% of the current population aged 15-65 y) to emigrate as a result of declines in agricultural productivity alone. Although the results cannot be mechanically extrapolated to other areas and time periods, our findings are significant from a global perspective given that many regions, especially developing countries, are expected to experience significant declines in agricultural yields as a result of projected warming.

  2. When to conduct probabilistic linkage vs. deterministic linkage? A simulation study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Ying; Matsuyama, Yutaka; Ohashi, Yasuo; Setoguchi, Soko

    2015-08-01

    When unique identifiers are unavailable, successful record linkage depends greatly on data quality and types of variables available. While probabilistic linkage theoretically captures more true matches than deterministic linkage by allowing imperfection in identifiers, studies have shown inconclusive results likely due to variations in data quality, implementation of linkage methodology and validation method. The simulation study aimed to understand data characteristics that affect the performance of probabilistic vs. deterministic linkage. We created ninety-six scenarios that represent real-life situations using non-unique identifiers. We systematically introduced a range of discriminative power, rate of missing and error, and file size to increase linkage patterns and difficulties. We assessed the performance difference of linkage methods using standard validity measures and computation time. Across scenarios, deterministic linkage showed advantage in PPV while probabilistic linkage showed advantage in sensitivity. Probabilistic linkage uniformly outperformed deterministic linkage as the former generated linkages with better trade-off between sensitivity and PPV regardless of data quality. However, with low rate of missing and error in data, deterministic linkage performed not significantly worse. The implementation of deterministic linkage in SAS took less than 1min, and probabilistic linkage took 2min to 2h depending on file size. Our simulation study demonstrated that the intrinsic rate of missing and error of linkage variables was key to choosing between linkage methods. In general, probabilistic linkage was a better choice, but for exceptionally good quality data (<5% error), deterministic linkage was a more resource efficient choice. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Phytoplankton and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moisan, John R.

    2009-01-01

    Ocean phytoplankton supply about half of the oxygen that humans utilize to sustain life. In this lecture, we will explore how phytoplankton plays a critical role in modulating the Earth's climate. These tiny organisms are the base of the Ocean's food web. They can modulate the rate at which solar heat is absorbed by the ocean, either through direct absorption or through production of highly scattering cellular coverings. They take up and help sequester carbon dioxide, a key greenhouse gas that modulated the Earth's climate. They are the source of cloud nucleation gases that are key to cloud formation/processes. They are also able to modify the nutrient budgets of the ocean through active uptake of inert atmospheric nitrogen. Climate variations have a pronounced impact on phytoplankton dynamics. Long term variations in the climate have been studied through geological interpretations on its influence on phytoplankton populations. The presentation will focus on presenting the numerous linkages that have been observed between climate and phytoplankton and further discuss how present climate change scenarios are likely to impact phytoplankton populations as well as present findings from several studies that have tried to understand how the climate might react to the feedbacks from these numerous climate-phytop|ankton linkages.

  4. Multi-temporal Linkages of Net Ecosystem Exchanges (NEE) with the Climatic and Ecohydrologic Drivers in a Florida Everglades Short-hydroperiod Freshwater Marsh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaki, M. T.; Abdul-Aziz, O. I.; Ishtiaq, K. S.

    2017-12-01

    Wetlands are considered one of the most productive and ecologically valuable ecosystems on earth. We investigated the multi-temporal linkages of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) with the relevant climatic and ecohydrological drivers for a Florida Everglades short-hydroperiod freshwater wetland. Hourly NEE observations and the associated driving variables during 2008-12 were collected from the AmeriFlux and EDEN databases, and then averaged for the four temporal scales (1-day, 8-day, 15-day, and 30-day). Pearson correlation and factor analysis were employed to identify the interrelations and grouping patterns among the participatory variables for each time scale. The climatic and ecohydrological linkages of NEE were then reliably estimated using bootstrapped (1000 iterations) partial least squares regressions by resolving multicollinearity. The analytics identified four bio-physical components exhibiting relatively robust interrelations and grouping patterns with NEE across the temporal scales. In general, NEE was most strongly linked with the `radiation-energy (RE)' component, while having a moderate linkage with the `temperature-hydrology (TH)' and `aerodynamic (AD)' components. However, the `ambient atmospheric CO2 (AC)' component was very weakly linked to NEE. Further, RE and TH had a decreasing trend with the increasing time scales (1-30 days). In contrast, the linkages of AD and AC components increased from 1-day to 8-day scales, and then remained relatively invariable at the longer scales of aggregation. The estimated linkages provide insights into the dominant biophysical process components and drivers of ecosystem carbon in the Everglades. The invariant linking pattern and linkages would help to develop low-dimensional models to reliably predict CO2 fluxes from the tidal freshwater wetlands.

  5. Linkages among climate change, crop yields and Mexico–US cross-border migration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Shuaizhang; Krueger, Alan B.; Oppenheimer, Michael

    2010-01-01

    Climate change is expected to cause mass human migration, including immigration across international borders. This study quantitatively examines the linkages among variations in climate, agricultural yields, and people's migration responses by using an instrumental variables approach. Our method allows us to identify the relationship between crop yields and migration without explicitly controlling for all other confounding factors. Using state-level data from Mexico, we find a significant effect of climate-driven changes in crop yields on the rate of emigration to the United States. The estimated semielasticity of emigration with respect to crop yields is approximately −0.2, i.e., a 10% reduction in crop yields would lead an additional 2% of the population to emigrate. We then use the estimated semielasticity to explore the potential magnitude of future emigration. Depending on the warming scenarios used and adaptation levels assumed, with other factors held constant, by approximately the year 2080, climate change is estimated to induce 1.4 to 6.7 million adult Mexicans (or 2% to 10% of the current population aged 15–65 y) to emigrate as a result of declines in agricultural productivity alone. Although the results cannot be mechanically extrapolated to other areas and time periods, our findings are significant from a global perspective given that many regions, especially developing countries, are expected to experience significant declines in agricultural yields as a result of projected warming. PMID:20660749

  6. Linkages between the Urban Environment and Earth's Climate System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepherd, J. Marshall; Jin, Menglin

    2003-01-01

    Urbanization is one of the extreme cases of land use change. Although currently only 1.2% of the land is considered urban, the spatial coverage and density of cities are expected to rapidly increase in the near future. It is estimated that by the year 2025 60% of the world s population will live in cities (UNFP, 1999). Though urban areas are local in scale, human activity in urban environments has impacts at local, to global scale by changing atmospheric composition; impacting components of the water cycle; and modifying the carbon cycle 2nd ecosystems. For example, urban dwellers are undoubtedly familiar with "high" ozone pollution days, flash flooding in city streets, or heat stress on summer days. However, our understanding of urbanization on the total Earth-climate system is incomplete. Better understanding of how the Earth s weather, oceans, and land work together and the influence of the urban environment on this climate system is critical. This paper highlights some of the major and current issues involving interactions between urban environments and the Earth's climate system. It also captures some of the most current thinking and findings of the authors and key experts in the field.

  7. CPC - Climate Weather Linkage: El Niño Southern Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teleconnections AO NAO PNA AAO Blocking Storm Tracks Climate Glossary Outreach About Us Our Mission Who We Are . P., and A. Kumar, 2000: Understanding and predicting extratropical teleconnections related to ENSO extratropical circulation anomalies during the 1986-1989 ENSO cycle. J. Climate, 6, 595-616. Ropelewski, C. F

  8. Lightning Discharges, Cosmic Rays and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Sanjay; Siingh, Devendraa; Singh, R. P.; Singh, A. K.; Kamra, A. K.

    2018-03-01

    The entirety of the Earth's climate system is continuously bombarded by cosmic rays and exhibits about 2000 thunderstorms active at any time of the day all over the globe. Any linkage among these vast systems should have global consequences. Numerous studies done in the past deal with partial links between some selected aspects of this grand linkage. Results of these studies vary from weakly to strongly significant and are not yet complete enough to justify the physical mechanism proposed to explain such links. This review is aimed at presenting the current understanding, based on the past studies on the link between cosmic ray, lightning and climate. The deficiencies in some proposed links are pointed out. Impacts of cosmic rays on engineering systems and the possible effects of cosmic rays on human health are also briefly discussed. Also enumerated are some problems for future work which may help in developing the grand linkage among these three vast systems.

  9. Exploring elementary students’ understanding of energy and climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Colin BOYLAN

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available As environmental changes become a significant societal issue, elementary science curriculaneed to develop students’ understanding about the key concepts of energy and climate change.For teachers, developing quality learning experiences involves establishing what theirstudents’ prior understanding about energy and climate change are. A survey was developed toexplore what elementary students know and understand about renewable and non-renewablesources of energy and their relationship to climate change issues. The findings from thissurvey are reported in this paper.

  10. Climate change from air in ice cores

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Riedel, K.

    2013-01-01

    How sensitive is our climate to greenhouse gas concentrations? What feedbacks will trigger further emissions in a warming world and at which thresholds? Over the last 200 years human activity has increased greenhouse gases to well beyond the natural range for the last 800,000 years. In order to mitigate changes - or adapt to them - we need a better understanding of greenhouse gas sources and sinks in the recent past. Ice cores with occluded ancient air hold the key to understanding the linkages between climate change and greenhouse gas variations. (author). 22 refs., 1 tab.

  11. Interweaving climate research and public understanding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Betts, A. K.

    2016-12-01

    For the past 10 years I have been using research into land-atmosphere-cloud coupling to address Vermont's need to understand climate change, and develop plans for greater resilience in the face of increasing severe weather. The research side has shown that the fraction of days with snow cover determines the cold season climate, because snow acts as a fast climate switch between non-overlapping climates with and without snow cover. Clouds play opposite roles in warm and cold seasons: surface cooling in summer and warming in winter. The later fall freeze-up and earlier spring ice-out on lakes, coupled to the earlier spring phenology, are clear markers both of a warming climate, as well as the large interannual variability. Severe flooding events have come with large-scale quasi-stationary weather patterns. This past decade I have given 230 talks to schools, business and professional groups, as well as legislative committees and state government. I have written 80 environmental columns for two Vermont newspapers, as part of a weekly series I helped start in 2008. Commentaries and interviews on radio and TV enable me to explain directly the issues we face, as the burning of fossil fuels destabilizes the climate system. The public in Vermont is eager to learn and understand these issues since many have roots in the land; while professional groups need all the information and guidance possible to prepare for the future. My task as a scientist is to map out what we know in ways that can readily be grasped in terms of past experience, even though the climate system is already moving outside this range - and at the same time outline general principles and hopeful strategies for dealing with global and local climate change.

  12. Observing Human-induced Linkages between Urbanization and Earth's Climate System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepherd, J. Marshall; Jin, Menglin

    2004-01-01

    Urbanization is one of the extreme cases of land use change. Most of world s population has moved to urban areas. Although currently only 1.2% of the land is considered urban, the spatial coverage and density of cities are expected to rapidly increase in the near future. It is estimated that by the year 2025, 60% of the world s population will live in cities. Human activity in urban environments also alters atmospheric composition; impacts components of the water cycle; and modifies the carbon cycle and ecosystems. However, our understanding of urbanization on the total Earth-climate system is incomplete. Better understanding of how the Earth s atmosphere-ocean-land-biosphere components interact as a coupled system and the influence of the urban environment on this climate system is critical. The goal of the 2003 AGU Union session Human-induced climate variations on urban areas: From observations to modeling was to bring together scientists from interdisciplinary backgrounds to discuss the data, scientific approaches and recent results on observing and modeling components of the urban environment with the intent of sampling our current stand and discussing future direction on this topic. Herein, a summary and discussion of the observations component of the session are presented.

  13. Global soil-climate-biome diagram: linking soil properties to climate and biota

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, X.; Yang, Y.; Fang, J.

    2017-12-01

    As a critical component of the Earth system, soils interact strongly with both climate and biota and provide fundamental ecosystem services that maintain food, climate, and human security. Despite significant progress in digital soil mapping techniques and the rapidly growing quantity of observed soil information, quantitative linkages between soil properties, climate and biota at the global scale remain unclear. By compiling a large global soil database, we mapped seven major soil properties (bulk density [BD]; sand, silt and clay fractions; soil pH; soil organic carbon [SOC] density [SOCD]; and soil total nitrogen [STN] density [STND]) based on machine learning algorithms (regional random forest [RF] model) and quantitatively assessed the linkage between soil properties, climate and biota at the global scale. Our results demonstrated a global soil-climate-biome diagram, which improves our understanding of the strong correspondence between soils, climate and biomes. Soil pH decreased with greater mean annual precipitation (MAP) and lower mean annual temperature (MAT), and the critical MAP for the transition from alkaline to acidic soil pH decreased with decreasing MAT. Specifically, the critical MAP ranged from 400-500 mm when the MAT exceeded 10 °C but could decrease to 50-100 mm when the MAT was approximately 0 °C. SOCD and STND were tightly linked; both increased in accordance with lower MAT and higher MAP across terrestrial biomes. Global stocks of SOC and STN were estimated to be 788 ± 39.4 Pg (1015 g, or billion tons) and 63 ± 3.3 Pg in the upper 30-cm soil layer, respectively, but these values increased to 1654 ± 94.5 Pg and 133 ± 7.8 Pg in the upper 100-cm soil layer, respectively. These results reveal quantitative linkages between soil properties, climate and biota at the global scale, suggesting co-evolution of the soil, climate and biota under conditions of global environmental change.

  14. Threshold concepts as barriers to understanding climate science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walton, P.

    2013-12-01

    Whilst the scientific case for current climate change is compelling, the consequences of climate change have largely failed to permeate through to individuals. This lack of public awareness of the science and the potential impacts could be considered a key obstacle to action. The possible reasons for such limited success centre on the issue that climate change is a complex subject, and that a wide ranging academic, political and social research literature on the science and wider implications of climate change has failed to communicate the key issues in an accessible way. These failures to adequately communicate both the science and the social science of climate change at a number of levels results in ';communication gaps' that act as fundamental barriers to both understanding and engagement with the issue. Meyer and Land (2003) suggest that learners can find certain ideas and concepts within a discipline difficult to understand and these act as a barrier to deeper understanding of a subject. To move beyond these threshold concepts, they suggest that the expert needs to support the learner through a range of learning experiences that allows the development of learning strategies particular to the individual. Meyer and Land's research into these threshold concepts has been situated within Economics, but has been suggested to be more widely applicable though there has been no attempt to either define or evaluate threshold concepts to climate change science. By identifying whether common threshold concepts exist specifically in climate science for cohorts of either formal or informal learners, scientists will be better able to support the public in understanding these concepts by changing how the knowledge is communicated to help overcome these barriers to learning. This paper reports on the findings of a study that examined the role of threshold concepts as barriers to understanding climate science in a UK University and considers its implications for wider

  15. Climate and Southern Africa's Water-Energy-Food Nexus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conway, D.; Osborn, T.; Dorling, S.; Ringler, C.; Lankford, B.; Dalin, C.; Thurlow, J.; Zhu, T.; Deryng, D.; Landman, W.; Archer van Garderen, E.; Krueger, T.; Lebek, K.

    2014-12-01

    Numerous challenges coalesce to make Southern Africa emblematic of the connections between climate and the water-energy-food nexus. Rainfall and river flows in the region show high levels of variability across a range of spatial and temporal scales. Physical and socioeconomic exposure to climate variability and change is high, for example, the contribution of electricity produced from hydroelectric sources is over 30% in Madagascar and Zimbabwe and almost 100% in the DRC, Lesotho, Malawi, and Zambia. The region's economy is closely linked with that of the rest of the African continent and climate-sensitive food products are an important item of trade. Southern Africa's population is concentrated in regions exposed to high levels of hydro-meteorological variability, and will increase rapidly over the next four decades. The capacity to manage the effects of climate variability tends, however, to be low. Moreover, with climate change annual precipitation levels, soil moisture and runoff are likely to decrease and rising temperatures will increase evaporative demand. Despite high levels of hydro-meteorological variability, the sectoral and cross-sectoral water-energy-food linkages with climate in Southern Africa have not been considered in detail. Lack of data and questionable reliability are compounded by complex dynamic relationships. We review the role of climate in Southern Africa's nexus, complemented by empirical analysis of national level data on climate, water resources, crop and energy production, and economic activity. Our aim is to examine the role of climate variability as a driver of production fluctuations in the nexus, and to improve understanding of the magnitude and temporal dimensions of their interactions. We first consider national level exposure of food, water and energy production to climate in aggregate economic terms and then examine the linkages between interannual and multi-year climate variability and economic activity, focusing on food and

  16. The GLOBE Program's Student Climate Research Campaign: Empowering Students to Measure, Investigate, and Understand Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackaro, J.; Andersen, T.; Malmberg, J.; Randolph, J. G.; Wegner, K.; Tessendorf, S. A.

    2012-12-01

    The GLOBE Program's Student Climate Research Campaign (SCRC) is a two-year campaign focused on empowering students to measure, investigate, and understand the climate system in their local community and around the world. Schools can participate in the campaign via three mechanisms: climate foundations, intensive observing periods (IOPs), and research investigations. Participation in the first year of the SCRC focused on increasing student understanding and awareness of climate. Students in 49 countries participated by joining a quarterly webinar, completing the online climate learning activity, collecting and entering data during IOPs, or completing an online join survey. The year also included a video competition with the theme of Earth Day 2012, as well as a virtual student conference in conjunction with The GLOBE Program's From Learning to Research Project. As the SCRC continues into its second year, the goal is for students to increase their understanding of and ability to conduct scientific research focused on climate. Furthermore, year two of the SCRC seeks to improve students' global awareness by encouraging collaborations among students, teachers and scientists focused on understanding the Earth as a system. In addition to the continuation of activities from year one, year two will have even more webinars offered, two competitions, the introduction of two new IOPs, and a culminating virtual student conference. It is anticipated that this virtual conference will showcase research by students who are enthusiastic and dedicated to understanding climate and mitigating impacts of climate change in their communities. This presentation will highlight examples of how the SCRC is engaging students all over the world in hands-on and locally relevant climate research.

  17. Relative Linkages of Stream Dissolved Oxygen with the Climatic, Hydrological, and Biogeochemical Drivers across the East Coast of U.S.A.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdul-Aziz, O. I.; Ahmed, S.

    2017-12-01

    Dissolved oxygen (DO) is a key indicator of stream water quality and ecosystem health. However, the temporal dynamics of stream DO is controlled by a multitude of interacting environmental drivers. The relative linkages of stream DO with the relevant environmental drivers were determined in this study across the U.S. East Coast by employing a systematic data analytics approach. The study analyzed temporal data for 51 water quality monitoring stations from USGS NWIS and EPA STORET databases. Principal component analysis and factor analysis, along with Pearson's correlation analysis, were applied to identify the interrelationships and unravel latent patterns among DO and the environmental drivers. Power law based partial least squares regression models with a bootstarp Monte-Carlo procedure (1000 iterations) were developed to reliably estimate the environmental linkages of DO by resolving multicollinearity. Based on the similarity of dominant drivers, the streams were categorized into three distinct environmental regimes. Stream DO in the northern part of temperate zone (e.g., northeast coast) had the strongest linkage with water temperature; suggesting an environmental regime with dominant climatic control. However, stream DO in the tropical zones (e.g., southeast Florida) was mostly driven by pH; indicating an environmental regime likely controlled by redox chemistry. Further, a transitional regime was found between the temperate and tropical zones, where stream DO was controlled by both water temperature and pH. The results suggested a strong effect of the climatic gradient (temperate to tropical) on stream DO along the East Coast. The identified environmental regimes and the regime-specific relative linkages provided new information on the dominant controls of coastal stream water quality dynamics. The findings would guide the planning and management of coastal stream water quality and ecosystem health across the U.S. East Coast and around the world.

  18. Understanding National Models for Climate Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dave, A.; Weingartner, K.

    2017-12-01

    National-level climate assessments have been produced or are underway in a number of countries. These efforts showcase a variety of approaches to mapping climate impacts onto human and natural systems, and involve a variety of development processes, organizational structures, and intended purposes. This presentation will provide a comparative overview of national `models' for climate assessments worldwide, drawing from a geographically diverse group of nations with varying capacities to conduct such assessments. Using an illustrative sampling of assessment models, the presentation will highlight the range of assessment mandates and requirements that drive this work, methodologies employed, focal areas, and the degree to which international dimensions are included for each nation's assessment. This not only allows the U.S. National Climate Assessment to be better understood within an international context, but provides the user with an entry point into other national climate assessments around the world, enabling a better understanding of the risks and vulnerabilities societies face.

  19. The Late-Pleistocene sedimentation history in the Eastern Arabian Sea: Climate Weathering-Productivity linkage

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Chodankar, A.R.

    to understand the past climate variation because the region has been shown to contain valuable sedimentary records relating to evidences of regulating glacial-interglacial climate. However, the palaeoclimate studies from this region are very limited unlike...

  20. Understanding climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    In this article the following question is answered. What is the climate? What factors do determine our climate? What is solar radiation? How does solar radiation relate to the earth's energy? What is greenhouse effect? What role does the greenhouse effect play in the global ecosystem? How does the water cycle affect climate? What is drought? What role do oceans play in influencing climate. (author)

  1. Sources of global climate data and visualization portals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglas, David C.

    2014-01-01

    Climate is integral to the geophysical foundation upon which ecosystems are structured. Knowledge about mechanistic linkages between the geophysical and biological environments is essential for understanding how global warming may reshape contemporary ecosystems and ecosystem services. Numerous global data sources spanning several decades are available that document key geophysical metrics such as temperature and precipitation, and metrics of primary biological production such as vegetation phenology and ocean phytoplankton. This paper provides an internet directory to portals for visualizing or servers for downloading many of the more commonly used global datasets, as well as a description of how to write simple computer code to efficiently retrieve these data. The data are broadly useful for quantifying relationships between climate, habitat availability, and lower-trophic-level habitat quality - especially in Arctic regions where strong seasonality is accompanied by intrinsically high year-to-year variability. If defensible linkages between the geophysical (climate) and the biological environment can be established, general circulation model (GCM) projections of future climate conditions can be used to infer future biological responses. Robustness of this approach is, however, complicated by the number of direct, indirect, or interacting linkages involved. For example, response of a predator species to climate change will be influenced by the responses of its prey and competitors, and so forth throughout a trophic web. The complexities of ecological systems warrant sensible and parsimonious approaches for assessing and establishing the role of natural climate variability in order to substantiate inferences about the potential effects of global warming.

  2. An empirical perspective for understanding climate change impacts in Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henne, Paul; Bigalke, Moritz; Büntgen, Ulf; Colombaroli, Daniele; Conedera, Marco; Feller, Urs; Frank, David; Fuhrer, Jürg; Grosjean, Martin; Heiri, Oliver; Luterbacher, Jürg; Mestrot, Adrien; Rigling, Andreas; Rössler, Ole; Rohr, Christian; Rutishauser, This; Schwikowski, Margit; Stampfli, Andreas; Szidat, Sönke; Theurillat, Jean-Paul; Weingartner, Rolf; Wilcke, Wolfgan; Tinner, Willy

    2018-01-01

    Planning for the future requires a detailed understanding of how climate change affects a wide range of systems at spatial scales that are relevant to humans. Understanding of climate change impacts can be gained from observational and reconstruction approaches and from numerical models that apply existing knowledge to climate change scenarios. Although modeling approaches are prominent in climate change assessments, observations and reconstructions provide insights that cannot be derived from simulations alone, especially at local to regional scales where climate adaptation policies are implemented. Here, we review the wealth of understanding that emerged from observations and reconstructions of ongoing and past climate change impacts in Switzerland, with wider applicability in Europe. We draw examples from hydrological, alpine, forest, and agricultural systems, which are of paramount societal importance, and are projected to undergo important changes by the end of this century. For each system, we review existing model-based projections, present what is known from observations, and discuss how empirical evidence may help improve future projections. A particular focus is given to better understanding thresholds, tipping points and feedbacks that may operate on different time scales. Observational approaches provide the grounding in evidence that is needed to develop local to regional climate adaptation strategies. Our review demonstrates that observational approaches should ideally have a synergistic relationship with modeling in identifying inconsistencies in projections as well as avenues for improvement. They are critical for uncovering unexpected relationships between climate and agricultural, natural, and hydrological systems that will be important to society in the future.

  3. Building Research Capacity to Understand and Adapt to Climate ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Building Research Capacity to Understand and Adapt to Climate Change in the Indus Basin ... Eleven world-class research teams set to improve livestock vaccine development ... Building resilience through socially equitable climate action.

  4. Addressing the trade-climate change-energy nexus: China's explorations in a global governance landscape

    OpenAIRE

    Monkelbaan, Joachim

    2014-01-01

    We have arrived at a critical juncture when it comes to understanding the numerous ways in which trade interacts with climate change and energy (trade-climate-energy nexus). Trade remains crucial for the sustainable development of the world's greatest trading nation: China. After clarifying the linkages within the trade, climate change and energy nexus, this article delves into China's specific needs and interests related to trade, climate change and energy. Then it explores the ways in which...

  5. Computing and Systems Applied in Support of Coordinated Energy, Environmental, and Climate Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    This talk focuses on how Dr. Loughlin is applying Computing and Systems models, tools and methods to more fully understand the linkages among energy systems, environmental quality, and climate change. Dr. Loughlin will highlight recent and ongoing research activities, including: ...

  6. Understanding the school 'climate': secondary school children and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kovacs, Susan; Bernier, Sandrine; Blanchet, Aymeric; Derkenne, Chantal; Clement, Florence; Petitjean, Leslie

    2012-01-01

    This interdisciplinary study analyzes the production, circulation and reception of messages on climate change in secondary schools in France. The objective is to understand how political and educational policy initiatives influence the ways in which schools contribute to creating youngsters' perceptions and opinions about climate change. In order to study the conditions of production and reception of information about climate change, a survey was conducted in four French secondary schools, in the 'Bas Rhin' and 'Nord' departments, and local political actors in each department were interviewed. The cross disciplinary analytical and methodological approach uses the tools of sociological inquiry, information science, and political science: questionnaires and interviews were conducted with members of the educational and governmental communities of each school and department, semiotic and discursive analyses of corpuses of documents were carried out, in order to characterize documents used by students and teachers at school or in more informal contexts; the nature and extent of the relations between the political contexts and school directives and programs were also discussed. This interdisciplinary approach, combining sociological, communicational, and political methods, was chosen in response to the hypothesis that three types of variables (social, communicational and political) contribute to the structuring and production of messages about climate change in schools. This report offers a contextualized overview of activities developed within the four secondary schools to help sensitize children to the risks associated with climate change. A study of the networks of individuals (teachers, staff, members of associations, etc.) created in and around the school environment is presented. The degree of involvement of these actors in climate change programs is analyzed, as it is related to their motives and objectives, to the school discipline taught, and to the position

  7. Sixth-Grade Students' Progress in Understanding the Mechanisms of Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Visintainer, Tammie; Linn, Marcia

    2015-01-01

    Developing solutions for complex issues such as global climate change requires an understanding of the mechanisms involved. This study reports on the impact of a technology-enhanced unit designed to improve understanding of global climate change, its mechanisms, and their relationship to everyday energy use. Global Climate Change, implemented in…

  8. Advances in Understanding Decadal Climate Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busalacchi, Antonio J.

    1999-01-01

    Recently, a joint Brazil-France-U.S. program, known as PIRATA (Pilot Research moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic), was proposed to begin the deployment of moored measurement platforms in the tropical Atlantic in order to enhance the existing observational data base and subsequent understanding of the processes by which the ocean and atmosphere couple in key regions of the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Empirical studies have suggested that there are strong relationships between tropical Atlantic upper ocean variability, SST, ocean-atmosphere coupling and regional climate variability. During the early 1980's a coordinated set of surface wind, subsurface thermal structure, and subsurface current observations were obtained as part of the U.S.-France SEQUAL-FOCAL process experiment designed to observe the seasonal response of the tropical Atlantic Ocean to surface forcing. Since that time, however, the observational data base for the tropical Atlantic Ocean has disintegrated to a few ship-tracks measuring ocean temperatures and a small collection of tide gauge stations measuring sea level. A more comprehensive set of observations, modeling and empirical studies is now in order to make progress on understanding the regional climate variability. The proposed PIRATA program will use mooring platforms similar to the tropical Pacific Ocean TAO array to measure surface fluxes of momentum and heat and the corresponding changes in the upper ocean thermal structure. It is anticipated that the oceanic data from this monitoring array will also be used in a predictive mode for initialization studies of regional coupled climate models. Of particular interest are zonal and meridional modes of ocean-atmosphere variability within the tropical Atlantic basin that have significant impacts on the regional climate of the bordering continents.

  9. General Chemistry Students' Understanding of Climate Change and the Chemistry Related to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Versprille, Ashley N.; Towns, Marcy H.

    2015-01-01

    While much is known about secondary students' perspectives of climate change, rather less is known about undergraduate students' perspectives. The purpose of this study is to investigate general chemistry students' understanding of the chemistry underlying climate change. Findings that emerged from the analysis of the 24 interviews indicate that…

  10. An estimating function approach to linkage heterogeneity

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Testing linkage heterogeneity between two loci is an important issue in genetics. Currently, there are ... on linkage heterogeneity can help people to better understand complex .... χ2(F − 2) + cχ2 (1), where c is a constant (see Appendix). Here, it can be ..... gin, ancestry, gender, age, etc., for purpose of dividing sub- groups to ...

  11. Papers of the CWRA climate change symposium : understanding climate change impacts on Manitoba's water resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    This symposium provided an opportunity for discussions on climate change issues with particular reference to the impacts on Manitoba's water resources. The presentations addressed issues of importance to governments, scientists, academics, managers, consultants and the general public. Topics of discussion ranged from climate change impacts on water quality, wetlands, hydropower, fisheries and drought, to adaptation to climate change. Recent advances in global and regional climate modelling were highlighted along with paleo-environmental indicators of climate change. The objective was to provide a better understanding of the science of climate change. The conference featured 16 presentations of which 1 was indexed separately for inclusion in this database. refs., tabs., figs

  12. Sixth-Grade Students' Progress in Understanding the Mechanisms of Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Visintainer, Tammie; Linn, Marcia

    2015-04-01

    Developing solutions for complex issues such as global climate change requires an understanding of the mechanisms involved. This study reports on the impact of a technology-enhanced unit designed to improve understanding of global climate change, its mechanisms, and their relationship to everyday energy use. Global Climate Change, implemented in the Web-based Inquiry Science Environment (WISE), engages sixth-grade students in conducting virtual investigations using NetLogo models to foster an understanding of core mechanisms including the greenhouse effect. Students then test how the greenhouse effect is enhanced by everyday energy use. This study draws on three data sources: (1) pre- and post-unit interviews, (2) analysis of embedded assessments following virtual investigations, and (3) contrasting cases of two students (normative vs. non-normative understanding of the greenhouse effect). Results show the value of using virtual investigations for teaching the mechanisms associated with global climate change. Interviews document that students hold a wide range of ideas about the mechanisms driving global climate change. Investigations with models help students use evidence-based reasoning to distinguish their ideas. Results show that understanding the greenhouse effect offers a foundation for building connections between everyday energy use and increases in global temperature. An impediment to establishing coherent understanding was the persistence of an alternative conception about ozone as an explanation for climate change. These findings illustrate the need for regular revision of curriculum based on classroom trials. We discuss key design features of models and instructional revisions that can transform the teaching and learning of global climate change.

  13. 76 FR 16443 - Proposed Information Collection: Strengthening the Scientific Understanding of Climate Change...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-23

    ... Collection: Strengthening the Scientific Understanding of Climate Change Impacts on Freshwater Resources of... Scientific Understanding of Climate Change Impacts on Freshwater Resources of the United States.'' The draft report reviews key issues related to freshwater resource data and climate change and identifies next...

  14. Challenges in administrative data linkage for research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katie Harron

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Linkage of population-based administrative data is a valuable tool for combining detailed individual-level information from different sources for research. While not a substitute for classical studies based on primary data collection, analyses of linked administrative data can answer questions that require large sample sizes or detailed data on hard-to-reach populations, and generate evidence with a high level of external validity and applicability for policy making. There are unique challenges in the appropriate research use of linked administrative data, for example with respect to bias from linkage errors where records cannot be linked or are linked together incorrectly. For confidentiality and other reasons, the separation of data linkage processes and analysis of linked data is generally regarded as best practice. However, the ‘black box’ of data linkage can make it difficult for researchers to judge the reliability of the resulting linked data for their required purposes. This article aims to provide an overview of challenges in linking administrative data for research. We aim to increase understanding of the implications of (i the data linkage environment and privacy preservation; (ii the linkage process itself (including data preparation, and deterministic and probabilistic linkage methods and (iii linkage quality and potential bias in linked data. We draw on examples from a number of countries to illustrate a range of approaches for data linkage in different contexts.

  15. Celebrity Climate Contrarians: Understanding a keystone species in contemporary climate science-policy-public interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boykoff, M. T.

    2012-12-01

    Since the 1980s, a keystone species called 'climate contrarians' has emerged and thrived. Through resistance to dominant interpretations of scientific evidence, and often outlier views on optimal responses to climate threats, contrarians have raised many meta-level questions: for instance, questions involve to what extent have their varied interventions been effective in terms of sparking a new and wise Copernican revolution; or do their amplified voices instead service entrenched carbon-based industry interests while they blend debates over 'climate change' with other culture wars? While the value of their influence has generated numerous debates, there is no doubt that climate contrarians have had significant influence on climate science, policy and public communities in ways that are larger than would be expected from their relative abundance in society. As such, a number of these actors have achieved 'celebrity status' in science-policy circles, and, at times, larger public spaces. This presentation focuses on how - particularly through amplified mass media attention to their movements - various outlier interventions have demonstrated themselves to be (often deliberately) detrimental to efforts that seek to enlarge rather than constrict the spectrum of possibility for mobilizing appropriate responses to ongoing climate challenges. Also, this work analyses the growth pathways of these charismatic megafauna through interview data and participant observations completed by the author at the 2011 Heartland Institute's Sixth International Conference on Climate Change. This provides detail on how outlier perspectives characterized as climate contrarians do work in these spaces under the guise of public intellectualism to achieve intended goals and objectives. The research undertaken and related in the presentation here seeks to better understand motivations that prop up these contrarian stances, such as possible ideological or evidentiary disagreement to the orthodox

  16. Understanding and managing trust at the climate science-policy interface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lacey, Justine; Howden, Mark; Cvitanovic, Christopher; Colvin, R. M.

    2018-01-01

    Climate change effects are accelerating, making the need for appropriate actions informed by sound climate knowledge ever more pressing. A strong climate science-policy relationship facilitates the effective integration of climate knowledge into local, national and global policy processes, increases society's responsiveness to a changing climate, and aligns research activity to policy needs. This complex science-policy relationship requires trust between climate science `producers' and `users', but our understanding of trust at this interface remains largely uncritical. To assist climate scientists and policymakers, this Perspective provides insights into how trust develops and operates at the interface of climate science and policy, and examines the extent to which trust can manage — or even create — risk at this interface.

  17. Public Understanding of Climate Change in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber, Elke U.; Stern, Paul C.

    2011-01-01

    This article considers scientific and public understandings of climate change and addresses the following question: Why is it that while scientific evidence has accumulated to document global climate change and scientific opinion has solidified about its existence and causes, U.S. public opinion has not and has instead become more polarized? Our…

  18. The essential interactions between understanding climate variability and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neelin, J. D.

    2017-12-01

    Global change is sometimes perceived as a field separate from other aspects of atmospheric and oceanic sciences. Despite the long history of communication between the scientific communities studying global change and those studying interannual variability and weather, increasing specialization and conflicting societal demands on the fields can put these interactions at risk. At the same time, current trajectories for greenhouse gas emissions imply substantial adaptation to climate change will be necessary. Instead of simply projecting effects to be avoided, the field is increasingly being asked to provide regional-level information for specific adaptation strategies—with associated requirements for increased precision on projections. For extreme events, challenges include validating models for rare events, especially for events that are unprecedented in the historical record. These factors will be illustrated with examples of information transfer to climate change from work on fundamental climate processes aimed originally at timescales from hours to interannual. Work to understand the effects that control probability distributions of moisture, temperature and precipitation in historical weather can yield new factors to examine for the changes in the extremes of these distributions under climate change. Surprisingly simple process models can give insights into the behavior of vastly more complex climate models. Observation systems and model ensembles aimed at weather and interannual variations prove valuable for global change and vice versa. Work on teleconnections in the climate system, such as the remote impacts of El Niño, is informing analysis of projected regional rainfall change over California. Young scientists need to prepare to work across the full spectrum of climate variability and change, and to communicate their findings, as they and our society head for future that is more interesting than optimal.

  19. Relative linkages of peatland methane and carbon dioxide fluxes with climatic, environmental and ecological parameters and their inter-comparison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banerjee, Tirtha; Hommeltenberg, Janina; Roy, Avipsa; De Roo, Frederik; Mauder, Matthias

    2016-04-01

    Although methane (CH4) is the second most important greenhouse gas (GHG) after CO2, about 80% of its global production is biogenic (wetlands, enteric fermentation and water disposal from animals) contrary to major anthropogenic sources of most other GHGs. Although on a shorter time scale, global emissions of methane are greater (10 year time frame) or about 80% (20 year time frame) of those of carbon dioxide in terms of their influence on global warming, methane emissions have been studied much less than CO2 emissions. Lakes, reservoirs and wetlands are estimated to contribute about 15-40% to the global methane source budget, which is higher than total oceanic CH4 emission. Half of the world's wetlands are represented by peatlands which cover 3% of the global total land area. Peatlands have a thick water-logged organic soil layer (peat) made up of dead and decaying plant material. Moreover, they are carbon rich, containing twice as much stock as the entire forest biomass of the world (550 Gt carbon). When disturbed, they can become significant sources of greenhouse gas emissions. The organic carbon exposed to air due to various mechanisms can release CH4 or CO2 in the atmosphere. Thus the nature of vegetation cover, radiation environment, wind turbulence, soil characteristics, water table depth etc. are expected to be important forcings that influence the emission of CH4 or CO2 in the shorter time scale. However, long term climate change can also influence these governing factors themselves over a larger time scale, which in turn can influence the wetland GHG emissions. Thus developing a predictive framework and long term source appropriation for wetland CH4 or CO2 warrants an identification of the major environmental forcings on the CH4 or CO2 flux. In the present work, we use a simple and systematic data-analytics approach to determine the relative linkages of different climate and environmental variables with the canopy level half-hourly CH4 or CO2 fluxes over a

  20. Climate and the Carbon Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manley, Jim

    2017-04-01

    Climate and the Carbon Cycle EOS3a Science in tomorrow's classroom Students, like too much of the American public, are largely unaware or apathetic to the changes in world climate and the impact that these changes have for life on Earth. A study conducted by Michigan State University and published in 2011 by Science Daily titled 'What carbon cycle? College students lack scientific literacy, study finds'. This study relates how 'most college students in the United States do not grasp the scientific basis of the carbon cycle - an essential skill in understanding the causes and consequences of climate change.' The study authors call for a new approach to teaching about climate. What if teachers better understood vital components of Earth's climate system and were able to impart his understanding to their students? What if students based their responses to the information taught not on emotion, but on a deeper understanding of the forces driving climate change, their analysis of the scientific evidence and in the context of earth system science? As a Middle School science teacher, I have been given the opportunity to use a new curriculum within TERC's EarthLabs collection, Climate and the Carbon Cycle, to awaken those brains and assist my students in making personal lifestyle choices based on what they had learned. In addition, with support from TERC and The University of Texas Institute for Geophysics I joined others to begin training other teachers on how to implement this curriculum in their classrooms to expose their students to our changing climate. Through my poster, I will give you (1) a glimpse into the challenges faced by today's science teachers in communicating the complicated, but ever-deepening understanding of the linkages between natural and human-driven factors on climate; (2) introduce you to a new module in the EarthLabs curriculum designed to expose teachers and students to global scientific climate data and instrumentation; and (3) illustrate how

  1. Western Australian High School Students' Understandings about the Socioscientific Issue of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawson, Vaille

    2015-05-01

    Climate change is one of the most significant science issues facing humanity; yet, teaching students about climate change is challenging: not only is it multidisciplinary, but also it is contentious and debated in political, social and media forums. Students need to be equipped with an understanding of climate change science to be able to participate in this discourse. The purpose of this study was to examine Western Australian high school students' understanding of climate change and the greenhouse effect, in order to identify their alternative conceptions about climate change science and provide a baseline for more effective teaching. A questionnaire designed to elicit students' understanding and alternative conceptions was completed by 438 Year 10 students (14-15 years old). A further 20 students were interviewed. Results showed that students know different features of both climate change and the greenhouse effect, however not necessarily all of them and the relationships between. Five categories of alternative conceptions were identified. The categories were (1) the greenhouse effect and the ozone layer; (2) types of greenhouse gases; (3) types of radiation; (4) weather and climate and (5) air pollution. These findings provide science educators a basis upon which to develop strategies and curriculum resources to improve their students' understanding and decision-making skills about the socioscientific issue, climate change.

  2. Understanding Resistance to Climate Change Resistance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coyle, Maureen

    2014-12-01

    Fifty years after the emergence of warnings over the effects of the environmental impacts of industrialization and other conditions of a planet subjugated by humans, we are still entertaining discussions about the existence of the phenomena of climate change. Worse still, we have not checked the behaviors and conditions that exacerbate the rate of environmental destruction. Older people, particularly those who are economically vulnerable, are among those most at risk in disasters, including events resulting from climate change. By applying the "epistemologies of ignorance" outlined by Nancy Tuana, I attempt to understand the rooted ignorance that prevents acceptance of the environmental impact of human kind's unrepentant misuse of the world's natural resources and the refusal to curb the excesses that have lead to environmental damage that has had, and that will continue to have, dire consequences on the planet and for the most vulnerable denizens of Earth. Far from being a pessimistic project of abjection and despair, this article proposes that an examination of climate change denial can provide guidance for the development of a better counter-narrative. © The Author(s) 2015.

  3. Middle School Students' Understandings About Anthropogenic Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golden, B. W.

    2013-12-01

    they discussed the validation of their beliefs. That is, we argue that the unit, and the emphases contained within the unit, resulted in the "epistemic scaffolding" of their ideas, to the extent that they shifted from arguing from anecdotes to arguing based on other types of data, especially from line graphs. Additionally, we found that students' understandings of climate change were tied to their ontological constructions of the subject matter, i.e., many perceived climate change as just another environmentally sensitive issue such as littering and pollution, and were therefore limited in their ability to understand anthropogenic climate change in the vast and robust sense meant by current scientific consensus. Given these known difficulties, it is critical to explore further research of this sort in order to better understand what students are actually thinking, and how that thinking is prone to change, modification, or not. Subsequently, K-12 strategies might be better designed, if that is indeed a priority of US/Western society.

  4. Multidecadal, centennial, and millennial variability in sardine and anchovy abundances in the western North Pacific and climate-fish linkages during the late Holocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuwae, Michinobu; Yamamoto, Masanobu; Sagawa, Takuya; Ikehara, Ken; Irino, Tomohisa; Takemura, Keiji; Takeoka, Hidetaka; Sugimoto, Takashige

    2017-12-01

    Paleorecords of pelagic fish abundance could better define the nature of fishery productivity dynamics and help understand responses of pelagic fish stocks to long-term climate changes. We report a high-resolution record of sardine and anchovy scale deposition rates (SDRs) from Beppu Bay, Southwest Japan, showing multidecadal and centennial variability in the abundance of Japanese sardine and Japanese anchovy during the last 2850 years. Variations in the sardine SDR showed periodicities at ∼50, ∼100, and ∼300 yr, while variations in the anchovy SDR showed periodicities at ∼30 and ∼260 yr. Comparisons between and correlation analyses of the time series of the sardine and anchovy SDRs demonstrate that there is not a consistent out-of-phase relationship during the last 2850 years. This indicates that the multidecadal alternations in the sardine and anchovy populations commonly seen in the 20th century did not necessarily occur during earlier periods. The Japanese sardine SDR record shows a long-term decreasing trend in the amplitudes of the multidecadal to centennial fluctuations. This decreasing trend may have resulted from an increasing trend in the winter sea surface temperature in the western North Pacific. The multicentennial variability in sardine abundance during the last millennium is consistent with the variabilities in the abnormal snow index in East Asia and the American tree ring-based Pacific Decadal Oscillation index, suggesting a basin-wide or regional climate-marine ecosystem linkage.

  5. Integrated Climate Change Modelling and Policy Linkages for ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Similarly, planners and policymakers face barriers in applying and using climate ... Advancing the application of climate and hydrological information and its ... Call for new OWSD Fellowships for Early Career Women Scientists now open.

  6. Understanding Climate Uncertainty with an Ocean Focus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tokmakian, R. T.

    2009-12-01

    Uncertainty in climate simulations arises from various aspects of the end-to-end process of modeling the Earth’s climate. First, there is uncertainty from the structure of the climate model components (e.g. ocean/ice/atmosphere). Even the most complex models are deficient, not only in the complexity of the processes they represent, but in which processes are included in a particular model. Next, uncertainties arise from the inherent error in the initial and boundary conditions of a simulation. Initial conditions are the state of the weather or climate at the beginning of the simulation and other such things, and typically come from observations. Finally, there is the uncertainty associated with the values of parameters in the model. These parameters may represent physical constants or effects, such as ocean mixing, or non-physical aspects of modeling and computation. The uncertainty in these input parameters propagates through the non-linear model to give uncertainty in the outputs. The models in 2020 will no doubt be better than today’s models, but they will still be imperfect, and development of uncertainty analysis technology is a critical aspect of understanding model realism and prediction capability. Smith [2002] and Cox and Stephenson [2007] discuss the need for methods to quantify the uncertainties within complicated systems so that limitations or weaknesses of the climate model can be understood. In making climate predictions, we need to have available both the most reliable model or simulation and a methods to quantify the reliability of a simulation. If quantitative uncertainty questions of the internal model dynamics are to be answered with complex simulations such as AOGCMs, then the only known path forward is based on model ensembles that characterize behavior with alternative parameter settings [e.g. Rougier, 2007]. The relevance and feasibility of using "Statistical Analysis of Computer Code Output" (SACCO) methods for examining uncertainty in

  7. Probabilistic record linkage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayers, Adrian; Ben-Shlomo, Yoav; Blom, Ashley W; Steele, Fiona

    2016-06-01

    Studies involving the use of probabilistic record linkage are becoming increasingly common. However, the methods underpinning probabilistic record linkage are not widely taught or understood, and therefore these studies can appear to be a 'black box' research tool. In this article, we aim to describe the process of probabilistic record linkage through a simple exemplar. We first introduce the concept of deterministic linkage and contrast this with probabilistic linkage. We illustrate each step of the process using a simple exemplar and describe the data structure required to perform a probabilistic linkage. We describe the process of calculating and interpreting matched weights and how to convert matched weights into posterior probabilities of a match using Bayes theorem. We conclude this article with a brief discussion of some of the computational demands of record linkage, how you might assess the quality of your linkage algorithm, and how epidemiologists can maximize the value of their record-linked research using robust record linkage methods. © The Author 2015; Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

  8. Prerequisites for understanding climate-change impacts on northern prairie wetlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anteau, Michael J.; Wiltermuth, Mark T.; Post van der Burg, Max; Pearse, Aaron T.

    2016-01-01

    The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) contains ecosystems that are typified by an extensive matrix of grasslands and depressional wetlands, which provide numerous ecosystem services. Over the past 150 years the PPR has experienced numerous landscape modifications resulting in agricultural conversion of 75–99 % of native prairie uplands and drainage of 50–90 % of wetlands. There is concern over how and where conservation dollars should be spent within the PPR to protect and restore wetland basins to support waterbird populations that will be robust to a changing climate. However, while hydrological impacts of landscape modifications appear substantial, they are still poorly understood. Previous modeling efforts addressing impacts of climate change on PPR wetlands have yet to fully incorporate interacting or potentially overshadowing impacts of landscape modification. We outlined several information needs for building more informative models to predict climate change effects on PPR wetlands. We reviewed how landscape modification influences wetland hydrology and present a conceptual model to describe how modified wetlands might respond to climate variability. We note that current climate projections do not incorporate cyclical variability in climate between wet and dry periods even though such dynamics have shaped the hydrology and ecology of PPR wetlands. We conclude that there are at least three prerequisite steps to making meaningful predictions about effects of climate change on PPR wetlands. Those evident to us are: 1) an understanding of how physical and watershed characteristics of wetland basins of similar hydroperiods vary across temperature and moisture gradients; 2) a mechanistic understanding of how wetlands respond to climate across a gradient of anthropogenic modifications; and 3) improved climate projections for the PPR that can meaningfully represent potential changes in climate variability including intensity and duration of wet and dry periods. Once

  9. Grand challenges in understanding the interplay of climate and land changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Shuguang; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Boysen, Lena R.; Ford, James D.; Fox, Andrew; Gallo, Kevin; Hatfield, Jerry L.; Henebry, Geoffrey M.; Huntington, Thomas G.; Liu, Zhihua; Loveland, Thomas R.; Norby, Richard J.; Sohl, Terry L.; Steiner, Allison L.; Yuan, Wenping; Zhang, Zhao; Zhao, Shuqing

    2017-01-01

    Half of Earth’s land surface has been altered by human activities, creating various consequences on the climate and weather systems at local to global scales, which in turn affect a myriad of land surface processes and the adaptation behaviors. This study reviews the status and major knowledge gaps in the interactions of land and atmospheric changes and present 11 grand challenge areas for the scientific research and adaptation community in the coming decade. These land-cover and land-use change (LCLUC)-related areas include 1) impacts on weather and climate, 2) carbon and other biogeochemical cycles, 3) biospheric emissions, 4) the water cycle, 5) agriculture, 6) urbanization, 7) acclimation of biogeochemical processes to climate change, 8) plant migration, 9) land-use projections, 10) model and data uncertainties, and, finally, 11) adaptation strategies. Numerous studies have demonstrated the effects of LCLUC on local to global climate and weather systems, but these putative effects vary greatly in magnitude and even sign across space, time, and scale and thus remain highly uncertain. At the same time, many challenges exist toward improved understanding of the consequences of atmospheric and climate change on land process dynamics and services. Future effort must improve the understanding of the scale-dependent, multifaceted perturbations and feedbacks between land and climate changes in both reality and models. To this end, one critical cross-disciplinary need is to systematically quantify and better understand measurement and model uncertainties. Finally, LCLUC mitigation and adaptation assessments must be strengthened to identify implementation barriers, evaluate and prioritize opportunities, and examine how decision-making processes work in specific contexts.

  10. Building Research Capacity to Understand and Adapt to Climate ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Building Research Capacity to Understand and Adapt to Climate Change in the Indus Basin ... Site internet ... L'honorable Chrystia Freeland, ministre du Commerce international, a annoncé le lancement d'un nouveau projet financé par le ...

  11. Moving beyond a knowledge deficit perspective to understand climate action by youth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busch, K. C.

    2016-12-01

    This presentation reports on an experiment testing two framings of uncertainty on students' intent to take action to mitigate climate change. Additionally, to explore possible mechanisms involved in the choice of taking mitigating action, several factors highlighted within behavior theory literature were measured to create a theoretical model for youth's choice to take mitigating action. The factors explored were: knowledge, certainty, affect, efficacy, and social norms. The experiment was conducted with 453 middle and high school students within the Bay Area. Findings indicated that these students did hold a basic understanding of the causes and effects of climate change. They were worried and felt negatively about the topic. They felt somewhat efficacious about their personal ability to mitigate climate change. The students reported that they associated with people who were more likely to think climate change was real and caused by humans. Students also reported that they often take part in private pro-environmental behaviors such as using less electricity. When asked to respond freely to a question about what think about climate change, participants described the negative effects of human-caused climate change on Earth systems at the global scale and as a current phenomenon. The results of the experiment showed that while the text portraying climate change with high uncertainty did affect student's own certainty and their perception of scientists' certainty, it did not affect behavioral intention. This result can be explained through regression analysis. It was found that efficacy and social norms were direct determinants of pro-environmental behaviors. The cognitive variables - knowledge and certainty - and the psychological variable - affect - were not significant predictors of pro-environmental behavior. The implications for this study are that while students hold basic understanding of the causes and effects of climate change, this understanding lacks

  12. Climate change and species interactions: ways forward.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angert, Amy L; LaDeau, Shannon L; Ostfeld, Richard S

    2013-09-01

    With ongoing and rapid climate change, ecologists are being challenged to predict how individual species will change in abundance and distribution, how biotic communities will change in structure and function, and the consequences of these climate-induced changes for ecosystem functioning. It is now well documented that indirect effects of climate change on species abundances and distributions, via climatic effects on interspecific interactions, can outweigh and even reverse the direct effects of climate. However, a clear framework for incorporating species interactions into projections of biological change remains elusive. To move forward, we suggest three priorities for the research community: (1) utilize tractable study systems as case studies to illustrate possible outcomes, test processes highlighted by theory, and feed back into modeling efforts; (2) develop a robust analytical framework that allows for better cross-scale linkages; and (3) determine over what time scales and for which systems prediction of biological responses to climate change is a useful and feasible goal. We end with a list of research questions that can guide future research to help understand, and hopefully mitigate, the negative effects of climate change on biota and the ecosystem services they provide. © 2013 New York Academy of Sciences.

  13. Climate Change and Sustainable Development: Realizing the Opportunity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robinson, John; Bradley, Mike; Busby, Peter; Connor, Denis; Murray, Anne

    2006-01-01

    Manifold linkages exist between climate change and sustainable development. Although these are starting to receive attention in the climate exchange literature, the focus has typically been on examining sustainable development through a climate change lens, rather than vice versa. And there has been little systematic examination of how these linkages may be fostered in practice. This paper examines climate change through a sustainable development lens. To illustrate how this might change the approach to climate change issues, it reports on the findings of a panel of business, local government, and academic representatives in British Columbia, Canada, who were appointed to advise the provincial government on climate change policy. The panel found that sustainable development may offer a significantly more fruitful way to pursue climate policy goals than climate policy itself. The paper discusses subsequent climate change developments in the province and makes suggestions as how best to pursue such a sustainability approach in British Columbia and other jurisdictions

  14. Identifying causal linkages between environmental variables and African conflicts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguy-Robertson, A. L.; Dartevelle, S.

    2017-12-01

    Environmental variables that contribute to droughts, flooding, and other natural hazards are often identified as factors contributing to conflict; however, few studies attempt to quantify these causal linkages. Recent research has demonstrated that the environment operates within a dynamical system framework and the influence of variables can be identified from convergent cross mapping (CCM) between shadow manifolds. We propose to use CCM to identify causal linkages between environmental variables and incidences of conflict. This study utilizes time series data from Climate Forecast System ver. 2 and MODIS satellite sensors processed using Google Earth Engine to aggregate country and regional trends. These variables are then compared to Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project observations at similar scales. Results provide relative rankings of variables and their linkage to conflict. Being able to identify which factors contributed more strongly to a conflict can allow policy makers to prepare solutions to mitigate future crises. Knowledge of the primary environmental factors can lead to the identification of other variables to examine in the causal network influencing conflict.

  15. Subsidiary Linkage Patterns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersson, Ulf; Perri, Alessandra; Nell, Phillip C.

    2012-01-01

    channels for spillovers to competitors. We find a curvilinear relationship between the extent of competitive pressure and the quality of a subsidiary's set of local linkages. Furthermore, the extent to which a subsidiary possesses capabilities moderates this relationship: Very capable subsidiaries...... in strongly competitive environments tend to shy away from high quality linkages. We discuss our findings in light of the literature on spillovers and inter-organizational linkages.......This paper investigates the pattern of subsidiaries' local vertical linkages under varying levels of competition and subsidiary capabilities. Contrary to most previous literature, we explicitly account for the double role of such linkages as conduits of learning prospects as well as potential...

  16. Introducing a New Elementary GLOBE Book on Climate: Supporting Educators and Students in their Understanding of the Concepts Underlying Climate and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanitski, D.; Hatheway, B.; Gardiner, L. S.; Taylor, J.; Chambers, L. H.

    2016-12-01

    Much of the focus on climate literacy in K-12 occurs in middle and high school, where teachers and students can dig into the science in some depth. It is important, however, to introduce this topic at an early age, building on a child's natural curiosity about the world around them - but without overwhelming them with frightening climate change impacts. In some U.S. school systems, a recent focus on standardized testing has crowded out science instruction in order to bring up literacy scores. To give teachers a resource to maintain some science instruction under these conditions, a series of Elementary GLOBE books have been developed. These fictional stories describe sound science and engineering practices that are essential for students to learn the process of science while expanding literacy skills, strongly encouraged in the Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS). The main concepts developed in a new Elementary GLOBE book on climate, titled "What in the World Is Happening to Our Climate?", will be introduced in this presentation. This book complements six other Earth System Science modules within the Elementary GLOBE curriculum and is freely available on the GLOBE website (www.globe.gov/elementaryglobe). The book discusses the concept that climate is changing in different ways and places around the world, and what happens to the climate in one place affects other locations across the globe. Supporting ideas clarify the difference between weather and climate, introduce climate science concepts, reveal the impacts of sea level rise, and help students understand that, while humans are contributing to climate change, they can also participate in solutions that address this challenge. Accompanying teacher's notes and companion classroom activities will be described to help elementary school teachers understand how to approach the subject of climate change with their students.

  17. Western Australian High School Students' Understandings about the Socioscientific Issue of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawson, Vaille

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is one of the most significant science issues facing humanity; yet, teaching students about climate change is challenging: not only is it multidisciplinary, but also it is contentious and debated in political, social and media forums. Students need to be equipped with an understanding of climate change science to be able to…

  18. The Data Platform for Climate Research and Action: Introducing Climate Watch

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hennig, R. J.; Ge, M.; Friedrich, J.; Lebling, K.; Carlock, G.; Arcipowska, A.; Mangan, E.; Biru, H.; Tankou, A.; Chaudhury, M.

    2017-12-01

    The Paris Agreement, adopted through Decision 1/CP.21, brings all nations together to take on ambitious efforts to combat climate change. Open access to climate data supporting climate research, advancing knowledge, and informing decision making is key to encourage and strengthen efforts of stakeholders at all levels to address and respond to effects of climate change. Climate Watch is a robust online data platform developed in response to the urgent needs of knowledge and tools to empower climate research and action, including those of researchers, policy makers, the private sector, civil society, and all other non-state actors. Building on the rapid growing technology of open data and information sharing, Climate Watch is equipped with extensive amount of climate data, informative visualizations, concise yet efficient user interface, and connection to resources users need to gather insightful information on national and global progress towards delivering on the objective of the Convention and the Paris Agreement. Climate Watch brings together hundreds of quantitative and qualitative indicators for easy explore, visualize, compare, download at global, national, and sectoral levels: Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for more than 190 countries over the1850-2014 time period, covering all seven Kyoto Gases following IPCC source/sink categories; Structured information on over 150 NDCs facilitating the clarity, understanding and transparency of countries' contributions to address climate change; Over 6500 identified linkages between climate actions in NDCs across the 169 targets of the sustainable development goals (SDG); Over 200 indicators describing low carbon pathways from models and scenarios by integrated assessment models (IAMs) and national sources; and Data on vulnerability and risk, policies, finance, and many more. Climate Watch platform is developed as part of the broader efforts within the World Resources Institute, the NDC Partnership, and in collaboration

  19. Promoting Climate Literacy and Conceptual Understanding among In-service Secondary Science Teachers requires an Epistemological Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattacharya, D.; Forbes, C.; Roehrig, G.; Chandler, M. A.

    2017-12-01

    Promoting climate literacy among in-service science teachers necessitates an understanding of fundamental concepts about the Earth's climate System (USGCRP, 2009). Very few teachers report having any formal instruction in climate science (Plutzer et al., 2016), therefore, rather simple conceptions of climate systems and their variability exist, which has implications for students' science learning (Francies et al., 1993; Libarkin, 2005; Rebich, 2005). This study uses the inferences from a NASA Innovations in Climate Education (NICE) teacher professional development program (CYCLES) to establish the necessity for developing an epistemological perspective among teachers. In CYCLES, 19 middle and high school (male=8, female=11) teachers were assessed for their understanding of global climate change (GCC). A qualitative analysis of their concept maps and an alignment of their conceptions with the Essential Principles of Climate Literacy (NOAA, 2009) demonstrated that participants emphasized on EPCL 1, 3, 6, 7 focusing on the Earth system, atmospheric, social and ecological impacts of GCC. However, EPCL 4 (variability in climate) and 5 (data-based observations and modeling) were least represented and emphasized upon. Thus, participants' descriptions about global climatic patterns were often factual rather than incorporating causation (why the temperatures are increasing) and/or correlation (describing what other factors might influence global temperatures). Therefore, engaging with epistemic dimensions of climate science to understand the processes, tools, and norms through which climate scientists study the Earth's climate system (Huxter et al., 2013) is critical for developing an in-depth conceptual understanding of climate. CLiMES (Climate Modeling and Epistemology of Science), a NSF initiative proposes to use EzGCM (EzGlobal Climate Model) to engage students and teachers in designing and running simulations, performing data processing activities, and analyzing

  20. An innovative approach to undergraduate climate change education: Sustainability in the workplace

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Z. P.

    2009-04-01

    Climate change and climate science are a core component of environment-related degree programmes, but there are many programmes, for example business studies, that have clear linkages to climate change and sustainability issues which often have no or limited coverage of the subject. Although an in-depth coverage of climate science is not directly applicable to all programmes of study, the subject of climate change is of great relevance to all of society. Graduates from the higher education system are often viewed as society's ‘future leaders', hence it can be argued that it is important that all graduates are conversant in the issues of climate change and strategies for moving towards a sustainable future. Rather than an in depth understanding of climate science it may be more important that a wider range of students are educated in strategies for positive action. One aspect of climate change education that may be missing, including in programmes where climate change is a core topic, is practical strategies, skills and knowledge for reducing our impact on the climate system. This presentation outlines an innovative approach to undergraduate climate change education which focuses on the strategies for moving towards sustainability, but which is supported by climate science understanding taught within this context. Students gain knowledge and understanding of the motivations and strategies for businesses to improve their environmental performance, and develop skills in identifying areas of environmental improvement and recommending actions for change. These skills will allow students to drive positive change in their future careers. Such courses are relevant to students of all disciplines and can give the opportunity to students for whom climate change education is not a core part of their programme, to gain greater understanding of the issues and an awareness of practical changes that can be made at all levels to move towards a more sustainable society.

  1. Developing an In-depth Understanding of Elderly Adult's Vulnerability to Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhoades, Jason L; Gruber, James S; Horton, Bill

    2018-05-08

    Recent reports highlight the vulnerability of elderly adults to climate change, yet limited research has focused on this topic. To address this, the purpose of this study was to develop an in-depth understanding of elderly adult's vulnerability to climate change within the context of a specific community. A case study methodology utilizing a community-based action research approach was employed to engage elderly participants living in Bridgeport, CT, in exploring their vulnerability to current and predicted climate stressors with a focus on extreme heat, flooding and storms, and air pollution. This research identifies personal characteristics that interact with contextual factors to influence elderly adult's vulnerability to climate change. Personal characteristics include health, economic, and social considerations. Contextual factors include the adequacy of emergency preparedness measures, transportation resources, and coping and recovery resources. As a result of the interplay of these characteristics and factors, predicted climate changes could have serious consequences for Bridgeport's elderly adults. This research provides a contextualized and detailed illustration of how climate change could overwhelm elderly adult's adaptive capacity and highlights the need for support services to provide safeguards. The issues and concerns raised may bear similarities to other locations, especially urban settings facing similar climate stressors with similar socioeconomic conditions. The findings suggest a need for further research to improve our understanding and serve as the basis for collaborative adaptation planning that engages elderly communities with local governments and a broad coalition of partners to keep elders safe.

  2. Recent advances in understanding secondary organic aerosol: Implications for global climate forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shrivastava, Manish; Cappa, Christopher D.; Fan, Jiwen; Goldstein, Allen H.; Guenther, Alex B.; Jimenez, Jose L.; Kuang, Chongai; Laskin, Alexander; Martin, Scot T.; Ng, Nga Lee; Petaja, Tuukka; Pierce, Jeffrey R.; Rasch, Philip J.; Roldin, Pontus; Seinfeld, John H.; Shilling, John; Smith, James N.; Thornton, Joel A.; Volkamer, Rainer; Wang, Jian; Worsnop, Douglas R.; Zaveri, Rahul A.; Zelenyuk, Alla; Zhang, Qi

    2017-06-01

    Anthropogenic emissions and land use changes have modified atmospheric aerosol concentrations and size distributions over time. Understanding preindustrial conditions and changes in organic aerosol due to anthropogenic activities is important because these features (1) influence estimates of aerosol radiative forcing and (2) can confound estimates of the historical response of climate to increases in greenhouse gases. Secondary organic aerosol (SOA), formed in the atmosphere by oxidation of organic gases, represents a major fraction of global submicron-sized atmospheric organic aerosol. Over the past decade, significant advances in understanding SOA properties and formation mechanisms have occurred through measurements, yet current climate models typically do not comprehensively include all important processes. This review summarizes some of the important developments during the past decade in understanding SOA formation. We highlight the importance of some processes that influence the growth of SOA particles to sizes relevant for clouds and radiative forcing, including formation of extremely low volatility organics in the gas phase, acid-catalyzed multiphase chemistry of isoprene epoxydiols, particle-phase oligomerization, and physical properties such as volatility and viscosity. Several SOA processes highlighted in this review are complex and interdependent and have nonlinear effects on the properties, formation, and evolution of SOA. Current global models neglect this complexity and nonlinearity and thus are less likely to accurately predict the climate forcing of SOA and project future climate sensitivity to greenhouse gases. Efforts are also needed to rank the most influential processes and nonlinear process-related interactions, so that these processes can be accurately represented in atmospheric chemistry-climate models.

  3. Climate Risk in Southern and Eastern Africa's Hydropower Generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalin, C.; Conway, D.; Landman, W.; Osborn, T.

    2016-12-01

    Hydropower comprises a major proportion of electricity production in southern and eastern Africa and is undergoing rapid expansion. Hydropower production in both regions is exposed to high levels of climate variability and regional linkages are strong, yet an understanding of aggregate climate risk is lacking. Here we map regions of coherent precipitation variability with current and planned (2030) hydropower sites, river basin configuration and regional energy grids to assess aggregate exposure to hydropower supply disruption. If fully implemented hydropower will be increasingly concentrated in the Nile basin in eastern Africa and the Zambezi basin in southern Africa. Regions of similar rainfall variability show close alignment with the main sites of hydropower. Future concentration of hydropower will greatly increase the concurrent risk of climate related electricity supply disruption. Nascent electricity sharing mechanisms could mitigate risk but face considerable political and infrastructural challenges.

  4. A guide to evaluating linkage quality for the analysis of linked data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harron, Katie L; Doidge, James C; Knight, Hannah E; Gilbert, Ruth E; Goldstein, Harvey; Cromwell, David A; van der Meulen, Jan H

    2017-10-01

    Linked datasets are an important resource for epidemiological and clinical studies, but linkage error can lead to biased results. For data security reasons, linkage of personal identifiers is often performed by a third party, making it difficult for researchers to assess the quality of the linked dataset in the context of specific research questions. This is compounded by a lack of guidance on how to determine the potential impact of linkage error. We describe how linkage quality can be evaluated and provide widely applicable guidance for both data providers and researchers. Using an illustrative example of a linked dataset of maternal and baby hospital records, we demonstrate three approaches for evaluating linkage quality: applying the linkage algorithm to a subset of gold standard data to quantify linkage error; comparing characteristics of linked and unlinked data to identify potential sources of bias; and evaluating the sensitivity of results to changes in the linkage procedure. These approaches can inform our understanding of the potential impact of linkage error and provide an opportunity to select the most appropriate linkage procedure for a specific analysis. Evaluating linkage quality in this way will improve the quality and transparency of epidemiological and clinical research using linked data. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

  5. Endemism hotspots are linked to stable climatic refugia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, Susan; Noss, Reed

    2017-01-01

    Centres of endemism have received much attention from evolutionists, biogeographers, ecologists and conservationists. Climatic stability is often cited as a major reason for the occurrences of these geographic concentrations of species which are not found anywhere else. The proposed linkage between endemism and climatic stability raises unanswered questions about the persistence of biodiversity during the present era of rapidly changing climate. The current status of evidence linking geographic centres of endemism to climatic stability over evolutionary time was examined. The following questions were asked. Do macroecological analyses support such an endemism-stability linkage? Do comparative studies find that endemic species display traits reflecting evolution in stable climates? Will centres of endemism in microrefugia or macrorefugia remain relatively stable and capable of supporting high biological diversity into the future? What are the implications of the endemism-stability linkage for conservation? Recent work using the concept of climate change velocity supports the classic idea that centres of endemism occur where past climatic fluctuations have been mild and where mountainous topography or favourable ocean currents contribute to creating refugia. Our knowledge of trait differences between narrow endemics and more widely distributed species remains highly incomplete. Current knowledge suggests that centres of endemism will remain relatively climatically buffered in the future, with the important caveat that absolute levels of climatic change and species losses in these regions may still be large. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  6. Understanding climate change adaptation and adaptive capacity: synthesis report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Patino, L. [Policy Research Initiative, Government of Canada, Ottawa, ON (Canada)

    2010-09-15

    In 2007, the Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Division (CCIAD) offered its support to research projects that were involved in understanding and improving adaptation and adaptive capacity and contributed to climate change decision-making and policy development in Canada. 20 research projects were commissioned by the CCIAD. With the collaboration of NRCan, the principal findings raised by the commissioned projects were synthesized by the Policy Research Initiative (PRI). Common themes and main messages are introduced in this synthesis report, and policy and program aspects that promote adaptive capacity to climate change in Canada are identified. Common themes and important messages emerging from the research projects, as well as the processes and barriers to adaptation and adaptive capacity identified in the commissioned projects, were discussed during a workshop held in Ottawa in 2009. Five main themes and four common barriers to adaptation were found. 25 refs.

  7. Heating up Climate Literacy Education: Understanding Teachers' and Students' Motivational and Affective Response to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinatra, G. M.

    2011-12-01

    presentation, findings from a research program exploring the role of "hot constructs" such as motivation and emotion in teaching and learning about climate change will be shared. In these studies, we have explored constructs such as emotions, misconceptions, plausibility perceptions, understanding deep time, and dispositions towards uncertainty. Results from four studies will be highlighted. In the first study, we demonstrated that comfort with ambiguity and a willingness to think deeply about issues predicted both change in attitudes towards climate change and expressed willingness to take mitigative action in college students (Sinatra, et al. 2011). In another study with college students, we demonstrated that knowledge of deep time and plausibility perceptions of human-induced climate change were related to students' understanding of weather and climate distinctions (Lombardi & Sinatra, 2010). In a study with graduate education students, we found that misconceptions about climate change were associated with strong emotions (Broughton, et al., 2011). With practicing teachers we have found that emotions, specifically anger and hopelessness, were significant predictors of plausibility perceptions of human-induced climate change (Lombardi & Sinatra, in preparation). The implications for climate change education of the findings will be discussed.

  8. Spatial linkages between coral proxies of terrestrial runoff across a large embayment in Madagascar

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grove, C.A.; Zinke, J.; Scheufen, T.; Maina, J.; Epping, E.; Boer, W.; Randriamanantsoa, B.; Brummer, G.-J.A.

    2012-01-01

    Coral cores provide vital climate reconstructions for site-specific temporal variability in river flow and sediment load. Yet, their ability to record spatial differences across multiple catchments is relatively unknown. Here, we investigate spatial linkages between four coral proxies of terrestrial

  9. Integrating Dendrochronology, Climate and Satellite Remote Sensing to Better Understand Savanna Landscape Dynamics in the Okavango Delta, Botswana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jane Southworth

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available This research examines the integration and potential uses of linkages between climate dynamics, savanna vegetation and landscape level processes within a highly vulnerable region, both in terms of climate variability and social systems. We explore the combined applications of two time-series methodologies: (1 climate signals detected in tree ring growth, from published literature, chronologies from the International Tree-Ring Data Bank, and minimal preliminary field data; and (2 new primary production (NPP data of vegetation cover over time derived from remotely sensed analyses. Both time-series are related to the regional patterns of precipitation, the principle driver of plant growth in the area. The approach is temporally and spatially multiscalar and examines the relationships between vegetation cover, type and amount, and precipitation shifts. We review literature linking dendrochronology, climate, and remotely sensed imagery, and, in addition, provide unique preliminary analyses from a dry study site located on the outer limit of the Okavango Delta. The work demonstrates integration across the different data sources, to provide a more holistic view of landscape level processes occurring in the last 30-50 years. These results corroborate the water-limited nature of the region and the dominance of precipitation in controlling vegetation growth. We present this integrative analysis of vegetation and climate change, as a prospective approach to facilitate the development of long-term climate/vegetation change records across multiple scales.

  10. Earth Science Week 2009, "Understanding Climate", Highlights and News Clippings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robeck, Edward C. [American Geological Inst., Alexandria, VA (United States)

    2010-01-05

    The American Geological Institute (AGI) proposes to expand its influential Earth Science Week Program in 2009, with the support of the U.S. Department of Energy, to disseminate DOE's key messages, information, and resources on climate education and to include new program components. These components, ranging from online resources to live events and professional networks, would significantly increase the reach and impact of AGI's already successful geoscience education and public awareness effort in the United States and abroad in 2009, when the campaign's theme will be "Understanding Climate."

  11. Principal efforts in improving the understanding of Climate impact of ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Principal efforts in improving the understanding of Climate impact of aerosols -. New and enhanced satellite borne sensors. Focused field experiments. Establishment and enhancement of ground based networks. Development and deployment of new and enhanced ...

  12. Systemic Modeling for the diagnosis of the interaction climate-malaria in Colombia, application during El Nino 1997-1998 and La Nina 1998-2000

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruiz, Daniel; Poveda, German; Quinonez, Martha Lucia; Velez Ivan, Dario; Rojas, William; Zuluaga, Juan Santiago

    2002-01-01

    A vector-borne disease model has been developed to represent the entomological, epidemiological and climatic interactions of malaria transmission conductive to disease outbreaks in Nuqui prone-region, Choco province, along the pacific Colombian coast. Considering breeding place availability model and several predator-prey-food models allow us to represent the vectorial densities fluctuations observed during the field's campaigns. The comprehensive model has been applied to represent malaria incidence during the period Nov/1997-Feb/2001 (1200 days simulation period), when both El Nino and la Nina events strongly affected the hydro-climatology of Colombia. The model has been run for observed climatic patterns such as mean daily temperatures, total daily precipitation records, and mean daily relative humidities gathered by a nearby climatological station. Diverse temperature scenarios have been considered to deepen the understanding of the entomological-climatic linkages conductive to malaria outbreaks. Sensitivity analysis and instabilities cases have been also studied during the experimentation-validation processes. Obtained results allow us to conclude that the model constitutes a promising tool to deepen the understanding of the ecological, entomological, and epidemiological linkages conductive to malaria outbreaks

  13. Towards a mechanistic understanding of the linkages between PETM climate modulation and stratigraphy, as discerned from the Piceance Basin, CO, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barefoot, E. A.; Nittrouer, J. A.; Foreman, B.; Moodie, A. J.; Dickens, G. R.

    2017-12-01

    The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) was a period of rapid climatic change when global temperatures increased by 5-8˚C in as little as 5 ka. It has been hypothesized that by drastically enhancing the hydrologic cycle, this temperature change significantly perturbed landscape dynamics over the ensuing 200 ka. Much of the evidence documenting hydrological variability derives from studies of the stratigraphic record, which is interpreted to encode a system-clearing event in fluvial systems worldwide during and after the PETM. For example, in the Piceance Basin of Western Colorado, it is hypothesized that intensification of monsoons due to PETM warming caused an increase in sediment flux to the basin. The resulting stratigraphy records a modulation of the sedimentation rate, where the PETM interval is represented by a laterally extensive sheet sand positioned between units dominated by floodplain muds. The temporal interval, the sediment provenance history, as well as the tectonic history of the PETM in the Piceance Basin are all well-constrained, leaving climate as the most significant allogenic forcing in the Piceance Basin during the PETM. However, the precise nature of landscape change that link climate forcing by the PETM to modulation of the sedimentation rate in this basin remains to be demonstrated. Here, we present a simple stratigraphic numerical model coupled with a conceptual source-to-sink framework to test the impact of a suite of changing upstream boundary conditions on the fluvial system. In the model, climate-related variables force changes in flow characteristics such as sediment transport, slope, and velocity, which determine the resultant floodplain stratigraphy. The model is based on mathematical relations that link bankfull geometry and water discharge, impacting the lateral migration rate of the channel, sediment transport rate, and avulsion frequency, thereby producing a cross-section of basin stratigraphy. In this way, we simulate a

  14. What's in a name? Commonalities and differences in public understanding of "climate change" and "global warming"

    OpenAIRE

    Whitmarsh, Lorraine E.

    2009-01-01

    This paper reports on findings from a survey of public understanding of climate change and global warming amongst residents in the south of England. Whereas much previous research has relied on survey checklists to measure public understanding of climate change, this study employed a more qualitative approach to reveal participants' unprompted conceptions of climate change and global warming. Overall, the findings show a tendency for the public to dissociate themselves from the causes, impact...

  15. Connecting the records: exploiting tephra deposits to help understand abrupt climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, S. M.; Abbott, P. M.; Bourne, A. J.; Chapman, M.; Pearce, N. J. G.; Griggs, A. J.; Cook, E.

    2016-12-01

    The causal mechanism of abrupt climate change during the last glacial period remains a key challenge. Although these events are well-documented in a wide range of proxy records, the triggers and drivers remain poorly understood, largely due to the dating uncertainties that prevent the integration of different archives. Unravelling the lead/lag responses (hence cause and effect) between the Earth's climate components is limited by the challenges of synchronising palaeoclimate records on a common timescale. Here we present the potential and the challenges of optimising the use of cryptotephra deposits to precisely correlate the Greenland ice-cores with North Atlantic marine records. A series of new cryptotephra deposits have been identified in Greenland, increasing the scope of identifying coeval isochrons in the marine environment. This new framework, however, brings new challenges in the search for unique and robust geochemical fingerprints for unequivocal tephra correlations. As such, some tephra deposits are proposed to be more valuable than others and underpin key snapshots in time during the last glacial period. The North Atlantic Ash Zone II, for instance, represents the most widespread isochron and constrains the cooling of GI-15. Some tephra deposits in the ice-core record originate from ultra-distal sources beyond the North Atlantic region and we also explore the potential for establishing North Pacific linkages.

  16. Climate Change | Page 15 | IDRC - International Development ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Language English. Read more about Platform for Exchange between African Research Scientists and Policymakers on Climate Change Adaptation. Language English. Read more about Integrated Climate Change Modelling and Policy Linkages for Adaptive Planning. Language English. Read more about Valuing Water in ...

  17. Crucial knowledge gaps in current understanding of climate change impacts on coral reef fishes

    KAUST Repository

    Wilson, S. K.; Adjeroud, M.; Bellwood, D. R.; Berumen, Michael L.; Booth, D.; Bozec, Y.-M.; Chabanet, P.; Cheal, A.; Cinner, J.; Depczynski, M.; Feary, D. A.; Gagliano, M.; Graham, N. A. J.; Halford, A. R.; Halpern, B. S.; Harborne, A. R.; Hoey, A. S.; Holbrook, S. J.; Jones, G. P.; Kulbiki, M.; Letourneur, Y.; De Loma, T. L.; McClanahan, T.; McCormick, M. I.; Meekan, M. G.; Mumby, P. J.; Munday, P. L.; Ohman, M. C.; Pratchett, M. S.; Riegl, B.; Sano, M.; Schmitt, R. J.; Syms, C.

    2010-01-01

    Expert opinion was canvassed to identify crucial knowledge gaps in current understanding of climate change impacts on coral reef fishes. Scientists that had published three or more papers on the effects of climate and environmental factors on reef

  18. Map-based molecular diversity, linkage disequilibrium and association mapping of fruit traits in melon

    Science.gov (United States)

    The wide phenotypic diversity, in melon fruits, is the result of consumer preferences combined with genotype fitness to the different agro-climatic zones. There is no sufficient information with respect to the extent of genetic divergence, population structure and linkage disequilibrium (LD) in mel...

  19. America's Water in the 20th Century: Measures to address climate induced risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devineni, N.

    2017-12-01

    This work develops an understanding of water risk for USA considering linkages between water supply and competing demands. It explores how climate variability and changing water demands manifest as water deficits and how public-private management decisions determine regional water availability and drought resilience. We develop insights on regional water risks, infrastructure investments, sectoral allocation and policy modifications for America's future water sustainability. In this talk, I will focus on demonstrating how the variations in climate over the last century influenced changes in water use across the continent USA. A peak into our interactive modeling environment for future evolution of water use and supply will also be provided.

  20. Understanding the influence of climate change on the embodied energy of water supply.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mo, Weiwei; Wang, Haiying; Jacobs, Jennifer M

    2016-05-15

    The current study aims to advance understandings on how and to what degree climate change will affect the life cycle chemical and energy uses of drinking water supply. A dynamic life cycle assessment was performed to quantify historical monthly operational embodied energy of a selected water supply system located in northeast US. Comprehensive multivariate and regression analyses were then performed to understand the statistical correlation among monthly life cycle energy consumptions, three water quality indicators (UV254, pH, and water temperature), and five climate indicators (monthly mean temperature, monthly mean maximum/minimum temperatures, total precipitation, and total snow fall). Thirdly, a calculation was performed to understand how volumetric and total life cycle energy consumptions will change under two selected IPCC emission scenarios (A2 and B1). It was found that volumetric life cycle energy consumptions are highest in winter months mainly due to the higher uses of natural gas in the case study system, but total monthly life cycle energy consumptions peak in both July and January because of the increasing water demand in summer months. Most of the variations in chemical and energy uses can be interpreted by water quality and climate variations except for the use of soda ash. It was also found that climate change might lead to an average decrease of 3-6% in the volumetric energy use of the case study system by the end of the century. This result combined with conclusions reached by previous climate versus water supply studies indicates that effects of climate change on drinking water supply might be highly dependent on the geographical location and treatment process of individual water supply systems. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Understanding the transformation of climate futures. A conceptual framework illustrated with urban adaptation policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boezeman, D.F.

    2016-01-01

    Projects in which science-based futures are produced indicating the relevant impacts of climatic changes are proliferating, in tandem with the increasing attention for climate change adaptation. Constructionist science studies have put forward the concept of ‘co-production’ to understand how

  2. Simulation of landscape disturbances and the effect of climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baker, W.L.

    1993-01-01

    The purpose of this research is to understand how changes in climate may affect the structure of landscapes that are subject to periodic disturbances. A general model useful for examining the linkage between climatic change and landscape change has been developed. The model makes use of synoptic climatic data, a geographical information system (GRASS), field data on the location of disturbance patches, simulation code written in the SIMSCRIPT language, and a set of landscape structure analysis programs written specifically for this research project. A simplified version of the model, lacking the climatic driver, has been used to analyze how changes in disturbance regimes (in this case settlement and fire suppression) affect landscape change. Landscape change lagged in its response to changes in the disturbance regime, but the lags differed depending upon the character of the change and the particular measure considered. The model will now be modified for use in a specific setting to analyze the effects of changes in climate on the structure of flood-disturbed patches along the Animas River, Colorado

  3. The acceptability of conducting data linkage research without obtaining consent: lay people's views and justifications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xafis, Vicki

    2015-11-17

    A key ethical issue arising in data linkage research relates to consent requirements. Patients' consent preferences in the context of health research have been explored but their consent preferences regarding data linkage specifically have been under-explored. In addition, the views on data linkage are often those of patient groups. As a result, little is known about lay people's views and their preferences about consent requirements in the context of data linkage. This study explores lay people's views and justifications regarding the acceptability of conducting data linkage research without obtaining consent. A qualitative study explored lay people's views regarding consent requirements in data linkage via four hypothetical data linkage scenarios of increasing complexity. Prior to considering the scenarios, participants were provided with information regarding best practice data linkage processes via discussion and a diagrammatic representation of the process. Lay people were able to understand the intricate processes involved in data linkage and the key protections afforded within a short amount of time. They were supportive of data linkage research and, on the whole, believed it should be conducted without consent provided a data linkage organization de-identifies the data used so that researchers do not handle identifiable data. Many thought that de-identified data holds a different status to identifiable data and should be used without specific consent in research that aims to benefit society. In weighing up conflicting values and interests, participants shifted consent preferences before arriving at their final consent preference for each scenario and provided justifications for their choices. They considered the protection of people's information, societal benefits, and the nature and constraints of research and recognized that these need to be balanced. With some exposure to the features of data linkage, lay people have the capacity to understand the

  4. Trade and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tamiotti, L.; Teh, R.; Kulacoglu, V. (World Trade Organization (WTO), Geneva (Switzerland)); Olhoff, A.; Simmons, B.; Abaza, H. (United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) (Denmark))

    2009-06-15

    The Report aims to improve understanding about the linkages between trade and climate change. It shows that trade intersects with climate change in a multitude of ways. For example, governments may introduce a variety of policies, such as regulatory measures and economic incentives, to address climate change. This complex web of measures may have an impact on international trade and the multilateral trading system. The Report begins with a summary of the current state of scientific knowledge on climate change and on the options available for responding to the challenge of climate change. The scientific review is followed by a part on the economic aspects of the link between trade and climate change, and these two parts set the context for the subsequent parts of the Report, which looks at the policies introduced at both the international and national level to address climate change. The part on international policy responses to climate change describes multilateral efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt to the effects of climate change, and also discusses the role of the current trade and environment negotiations in promoting trade in technologies that aim to mitigate climate change. The final part of the Report gives an overview of a range of national policies and measures that have been used in a number of countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to increase energy efficiency. It presents key features in the design and implementation of these policies, in order to draw a clearer picture of their overall effect and potential impact on environmental protection, sustainable development and trade. It also gives, where appropriate, an overview of the WTO rules that may be relevant to such measures. (author)

  5. Examining uncertainties in the linkage between global climate change and potential human health impacts in the western USA -- Hexachlorobenzene (HCB) as a case study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McKone, T.E.; Daniels, J.I. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States); Goldman, M. [Univ. of California, Davis, CA (United States)

    1994-09-30

    Industrial societies have altered the earth`s environment in ways that could have important, long-term ecological, economic, and health implications. In this paper the authors define, characterize, and evaluate parameter and outcome uncertainties using a model that links global climate change with predictions of chemical exposure and human health risk in the western region of the US. They illustrate the impact of uncertainty about global climate change on such potential secondary outcomes using as a case study the public health consequences related to the behavior environmentally of hexachlorobenzene (HCB), an ubiquitous multimedia pollutant. They begin by constructing a matrix that reveals the linkage between global environmental change and potential regional human-health effects that might be induced directly and/or indirectly by HCB released into the air and water. This matrix is useful for translating critical uncertainties into terms that can be understood and used by policy makers to formulate strategies against potential adverse irreversible health and economic consequences. Specifically, the authors employ a combined uncertainty/sensitivity analysis to investigate how the HCB that has been released is affected by increasing atmospheric temperature and the accompanying climate alterations that are anticipated and how such uncertainty propagates to affect the expected magnitude and calculational precision of estimates of associated potential human exposures and health effects.

  6. A pantograph linkage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cole, G.V.

    1982-01-01

    A pantograph linkage is actuated by two linear actuators, pivotally connected together at the linkage. The displacement of the actuators is monitored by rectilinear potentiometers to provide feedback signals to a microprocessor which also receives input signals related to a required movement of a slave end of the linkage. In response to these signals, the microprocessor provides signals to control the displacement of the linear actuators to effect the required movement of the slave end. The movement of the slave end might be straightline in a substantially horizontal or vertical direction. (author)

  7. Visualization of pairwise and multilocus linkage disequilibrium structure using latent forests.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raphaël Mourad

    Full Text Available Linkage disequilibrium study represents a major issue in statistical genetics as it plays a fundamental role in gene mapping and helps us to learn more about human history. The linkage disequilibrium complex structure makes its exploratory data analysis essential yet challenging. Visualization methods, such as the triangular heat map implemented in Haploview, provide simple and useful tools to help understand complex genetic patterns, but remain insufficient to fully describe them. Probabilistic graphical models have been widely recognized as a powerful formalism allowing a concise and accurate modeling of dependences between variables. In this paper, we propose a method for short-range, long-range and chromosome-wide linkage disequilibrium visualization using forests of hierarchical latent class models. Thanks to its hierarchical nature, our method is shown to provide a compact view of both pairwise and multilocus linkage disequilibrium spatial structures for the geneticist. Besides, a multilocus linkage disequilibrium measure has been designed to evaluate linkage disequilibrium in hierarchy clusters. To learn the proposed model, a new scalable algorithm is presented. It constrains the dependence scope, relying on physical positions, and is able to deal with more than one hundred thousand single nucleotide polymorphisms. The proposed algorithm is fast and does not require phase genotypic data.

  8. Industrial CO2 emissions in China based on the hypothetical extraction method: Linkage analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Yuan; Wang, Wenqin; Mao, Guozhu; Cai, Hua; Zuo, Jian; Wang, Lili; Zhao, Peng

    2013-01-01

    Fossil fuel-related CO 2 emissions are regarded as the primary sources of global climate change. Unlike direct CO 2 emissions for each sector, CO 2 emissions associated with complex linkages among sectors are usually ignored. We integrated the input–output analysis with the hypothetical extraction method to uncover the in-depth characteristics of the inter-sectoral linkages of CO 2 emissions. Based on China's 2007 data, this paper compared the output and demand emissions of CO 2 among eight blocks. The difference between the demand and output emissions of a block indicates that CO 2 is transferred from one block to another. Among the sectors analyzed in this study, the Energy industry block has the greatest CO 2 emissions with the Technology industry, Construction and Service blocks as its emission's primary destinations. Low-carbon industries that have lower direct CO 2 emissions are deeply anchored to high-carbon ones. If no effective measures are taken to limit final demand emissions or adjust energy structure, shifting to an economy that is low-carbon industries oriented would entail a decrease in CO 2 emission intensity per unit GDP but an increase in overall CO 2 emissions in absolute terms. The results are discussed in the context of climate-change policy. - Highlights: • Quantitatively analyze the characteristics of inter-industrial CO 2 emission linkages. • Propose the linkage measuring method of CO 2 emissions based on the modified HEM. • Detect the energy industry is a key sector on the output of embodied carbon. • Conclude that low-carbon industries are deeply anchored to high-carbon industries

  9. Privacy preserving interactive record linkage (PPIRL).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kum, Hye-Chung; Krishnamurthy, Ashok; Machanavajjhala, Ashwin; Reiter, Michael K; Ahalt, Stanley

    2014-01-01

    Record linkage to integrate uncoordinated databases is critical in biomedical research using Big Data. Balancing privacy protection against the need for high quality record linkage requires a human-machine hybrid system to safely manage uncertainty in the ever changing streams of chaotic Big Data. In the computer science literature, private record linkage is the most published area. It investigates how to apply a known linkage function safely when linking two tables. However, in practice, the linkage function is rarely known. Thus, there are many data linkage centers whose main role is to be the trusted third party to determine the linkage function manually and link data for research via a master population list for a designated region. Recently, a more flexible computerized third-party linkage platform, Secure Decoupled Linkage (SDLink), has been proposed based on: (1) decoupling data via encryption, (2) obfuscation via chaffing (adding fake data) and universe manipulation; and (3) minimum information disclosure via recoding. We synthesize this literature to formalize a new framework for privacy preserving interactive record linkage (PPIRL) with tractable privacy and utility properties and then analyze the literature using this framework. Human-based third-party linkage centers for privacy preserving record linkage are the accepted norm internationally. We find that a computer-based third-party platform that can precisely control the information disclosed at the micro level and allow frequent human interaction during the linkage process, is an effective human-machine hybrid system that significantly improves on the linkage center model both in terms of privacy and utility.

  10. Linkages between aggregate formation, porosity and soil chemical properties

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Regelink, I.C.; Stoof, C.R.; Rousseva, S.; Weng, L.; Lair, G.J.; Kram, P.; Nikolaidis, N.P.; Kercheva, M.; Banwart, S.; Comans, R.N.J.

    2015-01-01

    Linkages between soil structure and physical–chemical soil properties are still poorly understood due to the wide size-range at which aggregation occurs and the variety of aggregation factors involved. To improve understanding of these processes, we collected data on aggregate fractions, soil

  11. Challenges and opportunities for improved understanding of regional climate dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Matthew; Minobe, Shoshiro; Barreiro, Marcelo; Bordoni, Simona; Kaspi, Yohai; Kuwano-Yoshida, Akira; Keenlyside, Noel; Manzini, Elisa; O'Reilly, Christopher H.; Sutton, Rowan; Xie, Shang-Ping; Zolina, Olga

    2018-01-01

    Dynamical processes in the atmosphere and ocean are central to determining the large-scale drivers of regional climate change, yet their predictive understanding is poor. Here, we identify three frontline challenges in climate dynamics where significant progress can be made to inform adaptation: response of storms, blocks and jet streams to external forcing; basin-to-basin and tropical-extratropical teleconnections; and the development of non-linear predictive theory. We highlight opportunities and techniques for making immediate progress in these areas, which critically involve the development of high-resolution coupled model simulations, partial coupling or pacemaker experiments, as well as the development and use of dynamical metrics and exploitation of hierarchies of models.

  12. Genomewide Linkage Screen for Waldenström Macroglobulinemia Susceptibility Loci in High-Risk Families

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMaster, Mary L.; Goldin, Lynn R.; Bai, Yan; Ter-Minassian, Monica; Boehringer, Stefan; Giambarresi, Therese R.; Vasquez, Linda G.; Tucker, Margaret A.

    2006-01-01

    Waldenström macroglobulinemia (WM), a distinctive subtype of non-Hodgkin lymphoma that features overproduction of immunoglobulin M (IgM), clearly has a familial component; however, no susceptibility genes have yet been identified. We performed a genomewide linkage analysis in 11 high-risk families with WM that were informative for linkage, for a total of 122 individuals with DNA samples, including 34 patients with WM and 10 patients with IgM monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (IgM MGUS). We genotyped 1,058 microsatellite markers (average spacing 3.5 cM), performed both nonparametric and parametric linkage analysis, and computed both two-point and multipoint linkage statistics. The strongest evidence of linkage was found on chromosomes 1q and 4q when patients with WM and with IgM MGUS were both considered affected; nonparametric linkage scores were 2.5 (P=.0089) and 3.1 (P=.004), respectively. Other locations suggestive of linkage were found on chromosomes 3 and 6. Results of two-locus linkage analysis were consistent with independent effects. The findings from this first linkage analysis of families at high risk for WM represent important progress toward identifying gene(s) that modulate susceptibility to WM and toward understanding its complex etiology. PMID:16960805

  13. Experts’ understandings of drinking water risk management in a climate change scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Åsa Boholm

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The challenges for society presented by climate change are complex and demanding. This paper focuses on one particular resource of utmost necessity and vulnerability to climate change: namely, the provisioning of safe drinking water. From a critical perspective on the role of expertise in risk debates, this paper looks at how Swedish experts understand risk to drinking water in a climate change scenario and how they reason about challenges to risk management and adaptation strategies. The empirical material derives from ten in-depth semi-structured interviews with experts, employed both at government agencies and at universities, and with disciplinary backgrounds in a variety of fields (water engineering, planning, geology and environmental chemistry. The experts understand risk factors affecting both drinking water quality and availability as complex and systemically interrelated. A lack of political saliency of drinking water as a public service is identified as an obstacle to the development of robust adaptation strategies. Another area of concern relates to the geographical, organizational and institutional boundaries (regulatory, political and epistemological between the plethora of public actors with partly overlapping and sometimes unclear responsibilities for the provisioning of safe drinking water. The study concludes that climate change adaptation regarding drinking water provisioning will require a new integration of the knowledge of systemic risk relations, in combination with more efficient agency collaboration based on a clear demarcation of responsibility between actors.

  14. Conceptualizing In-service Secondary School Science Teachers' Knowledge Base for Promoting Understanding about the Science of Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattacharya, Devarati

    Efforts to adapt and mitigate the effects of global climate change (GCC) have been ongoing for the past two decades and have become a major global concern. However, research and practice for promoting climate literacy and understanding about GCC have only recently become a national priority. The National Research Council (NRC), has recently emphasized upon the importance of developing learners' capacity of reasoning, their argumentation skills and understanding of GCC (Framework for K-12 Science Education, National Research Council, 2012). This framework focuses on fostering conceptual clarity about GCC to promote innovation, resilience, and readiness in students as a response towards the threat of a changing environment. Previous research about teacher understanding of GCC describes that in spite of the prevalent frameworks like the AAAS Science Literacy Atlas (AAAS, 2007) and the Essential Principles for Climate Literacy (United States Global Climate Research Program, 2009; Bardsley, 2007), most learners are challenged in understanding the science of GCC (Michail et al., 2007) and misinformed perceptions about basic climate science content and the role of human activities in changing climate remain persistent (Reibich and Gautier, 2006). Our teacher participants had a rather simplistic knowledge structure. While aware of climate change, teacher participants lacked in depth understanding of how change in climate can impact various ecosystems on the Earth. Furthermore, they felt overwhelmed with the extensive amount of information needed to comprehend the complexity in GCC. Hence, extensive efforts not only focused on assessing conceptual understanding of GCC but also for teaching complex science topics like GCC are essential. This dissertation explains concept mapping, and the photo elicitation method for assessing teachers' understanding of GCC and the use of metacognitive scaffolding in instruction of GCC for developing competence of learners in this complex

  15. Revisiting of Stommel's model for the understanding of the abrupt climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scatamacchia, R.; Purini, R.; Rafanelli, C.

    2010-01-01

    Despite the enormous number of papers devoted to modelling climate changes, the pionieristic Stommel paper (1961) remains a still valid tool for the understanding of the basic mechanism that governs the abrupt climate change, i.e. the existence of multipla equilibria in the governing non-linear equations. Using non-dimensional quantities, Stommel did not provide any explicit information about the temporal scale affecting the process under examination when the control parameters are varied. On the basis of this consideration, the present paper revisits the Stommel theory putting some emphasis on the quantitative estimate of how the variations of the control system parameters system modify the fundamental motor of the climate change, i.e. the thermohaline circulation.

  16. Crucial knowledge gaps in current understanding of climate change impacts on coral reef fishes

    KAUST Repository

    Wilson, S. K.

    2010-02-26

    Expert opinion was canvassed to identify crucial knowledge gaps in current understanding of climate change impacts on coral reef fishes. Scientists that had published three or more papers on the effects of climate and environmental factors on reef fishes were invited to submit five questions that, if addressed, would improve our understanding of climate change effects on coral reef fishes. Thirty-three scientists provided 155 questions, and 32 scientists scored these questions in terms of: (i) identifying a knowledge gap, (ii) achievability, (iii) applicability to a broad spectrum of species and reef habitats, and (iv) priority. Forty-two per cent of the questions related to habitat associations and community dynamics of fish, reflecting the established effects and immediate concern relating to climate-induced coral loss and habitat degradation. However, there were also questions on fish demographics, physiology, behaviour and management, all of which could be potentially affected by climate change. Irrespective of their individual expertise and background, scientists scored questions from different topics similarly, suggesting limited bias and recognition of a need for greater interdisciplinary and collaborative research. Presented here are the 53 highest-scoring unique questions. These questions should act as a guide for future research, providing a basis for better assessment and management of climate change impacts on coral reefs and associated fish communities.

  17. Understanding the interactions between Social Capital, climate change, and community resilience in Gulf of Mexico coastal counties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, C.; Blomberg, B.; Kolker, A.; Nguyen, U.; Page, C. M.; Sherchan, S. P.; Tobias, V. D.; Wu, H.

    2017-12-01

    Coastal communities in the Gulf of Mexico are facing new and complex challenges as their physical environment is altered by climate warming and sea level rise. To effectively prepare for environmental changes, coastal communities must build resilience in both physical structures and social structures. One measure of social structure resilience is how much social capital a community possesses. Social capital is defined as the connections among individuals which result in networks with shared norms, values and understandings that facilitate cooperation within or among groups. Social capital exists in three levels; bonding, bridging and linking. Bonding social capital is a measure of the strength of relationships amongst members of a network who are similar in some form. Bridging social capital is a measure of relationships amongst people who are dissimilar in some way, such as age, education, or race/ethnicity. Finally Linking social capital measures the extent to which individuals build relationships with institutions and individuals who have relative power over them (e.g local government, educational institutions). Using census and American Community Survey data, we calculated a Social Capital index value for bonding, bridging and linking for 60 Gulf of Mexico coastal counties for the years 2000, and 2010 to 2015. To investigate the impact of social capital on community resilience we coupled social capital index values with physical datasets of land-use/land cover, sea level change, climate, elevation and surface water quality for each coastal county in each year. Preliminary results indicate that in Gulf of Mexico coastal counties, increased bonding social capital results in decreased population change. In addition, we observed a multi-year time lag in the effect of increased bridging social capital on population stability, potentially suggesting key linkages between the physical and social environment in this complex coupled-natural human system. This

  18. Joint Applications Pilot of the National Climate Predictions and Projections Platform and the North Central Climate Science Center: Delivering climate projections on regional scales to support adaptation planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ray, A. J.; Ojima, D. S.; Morisette, J. T.

    2012-12-01

    The DOI North Central Climate Science Center (NC CSC) and the NOAA/NCAR National Climate Predictions and Projections (NCPP) Platform and have initiated a joint pilot study to collaboratively explore the "best available climate information" to support key land management questions and how to provide this information. NCPP's mission is to support state of the art approaches to develop and deliver comprehensive regional climate information and facilitate its use in decision making and adaptation planning. This presentation will describe the evolving joint pilot as a tangible, real-world demonstration of linkages between climate science, ecosystem science and resource management. Our joint pilot is developing a deliberate, ongoing interaction to prototype how NCPP will work with CSCs to develop and deliver needed climate information products, including translational information to support climate data understanding and use. This pilot also will build capacity in the North Central CSC by working with NCPP to use climate information used as input to ecological modeling. We will discuss lessons to date on developing and delivering needed climate information products based on this strategic partnership. Four projects have been funded to collaborate to incorporate climate information as part of an ecological modeling project, which in turn will address key DOI stakeholder priorities in the region: Riparian Corridors: Projecting climate change effects on cottonwood and willow seed dispersal phenology, flood timing, and seedling recruitment in western riparian forests. Sage Grouse & Habitats: Integrating climate and biological data into land management decision models to assess species and habitat vulnerability Grasslands & Forests: Projecting future effects of land management, natural disturbance, and CO2 on woody encroachment in the Northern Great Plains The value of climate information: Supporting management decisions in the Plains and Prairie Potholes LCC. NCCSC's role in

  19. Carbon dioxide and climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-10-01

    Global climate change is a serious environmental concern, and the US has developed ''An Action Agenda'' to deal with it. At the heart of the US effort is the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), which has been developed by the Committee on Earth and Environmental Sciences (CEES) of the Federal Coordinating Council for Sciences, Engineering, and Technology (FCCSET). The USGCRP will provide the scientific basis for sound policy making on the climate-change issue. The DOE contribution to the USGCRP is the Carbon Dioxide Research Program, which now places particular emphasis on the rapid improvement of the capability to predict global and regional climate change. DOE's Carbon Dioxide Research Program has been addressing the carbon dioxide-climate change connection for more than twelve years and has provided a solid scientific foundation for the USGCRP. The expansion of the DOE effort reflects the increased attention that the Department has placed on the issue and is reflected in the National Energy Strategy (NES) that was released in 1991. This Program Summary describes projects funded by the Carbon Dioxide Research Program during FY 1991 and gives a brief overview of objectives, organization, and accomplishments. The Environmental Sciences Division of the Office of Health and Environmental Research, Office of Energy Research supports a Carbon Dioxide Research Program to determine the scientific linkage between the rise of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, especially carbon dioxide, and climate and vegetation change. One facet is the Core CO 2 Program, a pioneering program that DOE established more than 10 years ago to understand and predict the ways that fossil-fuel burning could affect atmospheric CO 2 concentration, global climate, and the Earth's biosphere. Major research areas are: global carbon cycle; climate detection and models of climate change; vegetation research; resource analysis; and, information and integration

  20. Chronic disease and climate change: understanding co-benefits and their policy implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capon, Anthony G; Rissel, Chris E

    2010-01-01

    Chronic disease and climate change are major public policy challenges facing governments around the world. An improved understanding of the relationship between chronic disease and climate change should enable improved policy formulation to support both human health and the health of the planet. Chronic disease and climate change are both unintended consequences of our way of life, and are attributable in part to the ready availability of inexpensive fossil fuel energy. There are co-benefits for health from actions to address climate change. For example, substituting physical activity and a vegetable-rich diet for motor vehicle transport and a meat-rich diet is both good for health and good for the planet. We should encourage ways of living that use less carbon as these can be healthy ways of living, for both individuals and society. Quantitative modelling of co-benefits should inform policy responses.

  1. Reconstruction of the boundary between climate science and politics: the IPCC in the Japanese mass media, 1988-2007.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asayama, Shinichiro; Ishii, Atsushi

    2014-02-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) plays a significant role in bridging the boundary between climate science and politics. Media coverage is crucial for understanding how climate science is communicated and embedded in society. This study analyzes the discursive construction of the IPCC in three Japanese newspapers from 1988 to 2007 in terms of the science-politics boundary. The results show media discourses engaged in boundary-work which rhetorically separated science and politics, and constructed the iconic image of the IPCC as a pure scientific authority. In the linkages between the global and national arenas of climate change, the media "domesticate" the issue, translating the global nature of climate change into a discourse that suits the national context. We argue that the Japanese media's boundary-work is part of the media domestication that reconstructed the boundary between climate science and politics reflecting the Japanese context.

  2. Genome scan for linkage to asthma using a linkage disequilibrium-lod score test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Y; Slager, S L; Huang, J

    2001-01-01

    We report a genome-wide linkage study of asthma on the German and Collaborative Study on the Genetics of Asthma (CSGA) data. Using a combined linkage and linkage disequilibrium test and the nonparametric linkage score, we identified 13 markers from the German data, 1 marker from the African American (CSGA) data, and 7 markers from the Caucasian (CSGA) data in which the p-values ranged between 0.0001 and 0.0100. From our analysis and taking into account previous published linkage studies of asthma, we suggest that three regions in chromosome 5 (around D5S418, D5S644, and D5S422), one region in chromosome 6 (around three neighboring markers D6S1281, D6S291, and D6S1019), one region in chromosome 11 (around D11S2362), and two regions in chromosome 12 (around D12S351 and D12S324) especially merit further investigation.

  3. Understanding and Improving Ocean Mixing Parameterizations for modeling Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard, A. M.; Fells, J.; Clarke, J.; Cheng, Y.; Canuto, V.; Dubovikov, M. S.

    2017-12-01

    Climate is vital. Earth is only habitable due to the atmosphere&oceans' distribution of energy. Our Greenhouse Gas emissions shift overall the balance between absorbed and emitted radiation causing Global Warming. How much of these emissions are stored in the ocean vs. entering the atmosphere to cause warming and how the extra heat is distributed depends on atmosphere&ocean dynamics, which we must understand to know risks of both progressive Climate Change and Climate Variability which affect us all in many ways including extreme weather, floods, droughts, sea-level rise and ecosystem disruption. Citizens must be informed to make decisions such as "business as usual" vs. mitigating emissions to avert catastrophe. Simulations of Climate Change provide needed knowledge but in turn need reliable parameterizations of key physical processes, including ocean mixing, which greatly impacts transport&storage of heat and dissolved CO2. The turbulence group at NASA-GISS seeks to use physical theory to improve parameterizations of ocean mixing, including smallscale convective, shear driven, double diffusive, internal wave and tidal driven vertical mixing, as well as mixing by submesoscale eddies, and lateral mixing along isopycnals by mesoscale eddies. Medgar Evers undergraduates aid NASA research while learning climate science and developing computer&math skills. We write our own programs in MATLAB and FORTRAN to visualize and process output of ocean simulations including producing statistics to help judge impacts of different parameterizations on fidelity in reproducing realistic temperatures&salinities, diffusivities and turbulent power. The results can help upgrade the parameterizations. Students are introduced to complex system modeling and gain deeper appreciation of climate science and programming skills, while furthering climate science. We are incorporating climate projects into the Medgar Evers college curriculum. The PI is both a member of the turbulence group at

  4. VT Wildlife Linkage Habitat

    Data.gov (United States)

    Vermont Center for Geographic Information — (Link to Metadata) The Wildlife Linkage Habitat Analysis uses landscape scale data to identify or predict the location of potentially significant wildlife linkage...

  5. Using Weather Types to Understand and Communicate Weather and Climate Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prein, A. F.; Hale, B.; Holland, G. J.; Bruyere, C. L.; Done, J.; Mearns, L.

    2017-12-01

    A common challenge in atmospheric research is the translation of scientific advancements and breakthroughs to decision relevant and actionable information. This challenge is central to the mission of NCAR's Capacity Center for Climate and Weather Extremes (C3WE, www.c3we.ucar.edu). C3WE advances our understanding of weather and climate impacts and integrates these advances with distributed information technology to create tools that promote a global culture of resilience to weather and climate extremes. Here we will present an interactive web-based tool that connects historic U.S. losses and fatalities from extreme weather and climate events to 12 large-scale weather types. Weather types are dominant weather situations such as winter high-pressure systems over the U.S. leading to very cold temperatures or summertime moist humid air masses over the central U.S. leading to severe thunderstorms. Each weather type has a specific fingerprint of economic losses and fatalities in a region that is quantified. Therefore, weather types enable a direct connection of observed or forecasted weather situation to loss of life and property. The presented tool allows the user to explore these connections, raise awareness of existing vulnerabilities, and build resilience to weather and climate extremes.

  6. Conceptual understanding of climate change with a globally resolved energy balance model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dommenget, Dietmar [Monash University, School of Mathematical Sciences, Melbourne, VIC (Australia); Floeter, Janine [Leibniz Institute for Marine Sciences, Kiel (Germany)

    2011-12-15

    The future climate change projections are essentially based on coupled general circulation model (CGCM) simulations, which give a distinct global warming pattern with arctic winter amplification, an equilibrium land-sea warming contrast and an inter-hemispheric warming gradient. While these simulations are the most important tool of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predictions, the conceptual understanding of these predicted structures of climate change and the causes of their uncertainties is very difficult to reach if only based on these highly complex CGCM simulations. In the study presented here we will introduce a very simple, globally resolved energy balance (GREB) model, which is capable of simulating the main characteristics of global warming. The model shall give a bridge between the strongly simplified energy balance models and the fully coupled 4-dimensional complex CGCMs. It provides a fast tool for the conceptual understanding and development of hypotheses for climate change studies, which shall build a basis or starting point for more detailed studies of observations and CGCM simulations. It is based on the surface energy balance by very simple representations of solar and thermal radiation, the atmospheric hydrological cycle, sensible turbulent heat flux, transport by the mean atmospheric circulation and heat exchange with the deeper ocean. Despite some limitations in the representations of the basic processes, the models climate sensitivity and the spatial structure of the warming pattern are within the uncertainties of the IPCC models simulations. It is capable of simulating aspects of the arctic winter amplification, the equilibrium land-sea warming contrast and the inter-hemispheric warming gradient with good agreement to the IPCC models in amplitude and structure. The results give some insight into the understanding of the land-sea contrast and the polar amplification. The GREB model suggests that the regional inhomogeneous

  7. Design of special planar linkages

    CERN Document Server

    Zhao, Jing-Shan; Ma, Ning; Chu, Fulei

    2013-01-01

    Planar linkages play a very important role in mechanical engineering. As the simplest closed chain mechanisms, planar four-bar linkages are widely used in mechanical engineering, civil engineering and aerospace engineering.Design of Special Planar Linkages proposes a uniform design theory for planar four-bar linkages. The merit of the method proposed in this book is that it allows engineers to directly obtain accurate results when there are such solutions for the specified n precise positions; otherwise, the best approximate solutions will be found. This book discusses the kinematics and reach

  8. EFFECTS OF HUMAN IMPACTS AND CLIMATE VARIATION ON FORESTS: THE RIETI BASIN SINCE MEDIEVAL TIME

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Mensing

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available A number of recent paleoenvironmental studies have argued that abrupt changes in climate have been the primary cause for societal collapse. Many social scientists, including anthropologists and environmental historians, reject environmental explanations as deterministic and overly simplistic. They argue that socio-political decisions contribute to environmental change and that efforts to study societal vulnerability within a human-environment system must include analysis of complex social structures. There is a gap in our understanding of how past societies responded to climate change because there are very few interdisciplinary studies that integrate both physical and behavioral sciences in paleoenvironmental reconstructions. While there is a general sense that modern societies are more insulated than pre-industrial societies from the effects of climate change, this may not prove to be true. A more complete understanding of how both natural and human-caused changes have affected the environment in the past can potentially guide decisions aimed at promoting future sustainability. Here we present a project funded by the United States National Science Foundation that will explicitly integrate paleoenvironmental reconstruction with socioeconomic history in a local context to identify linkages between social and environmental change associated with climate variability.

  9. A balance of bottom-up and top-down in linking climate policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Jessica F.; Sterner, Thomas; Wagner, Gernot

    2014-12-01

    Top-down climate negotiations embodied by the Kyoto Protocol have all but stalled, chiefly because of disagreements over targets and objections to financial transfers. To avoid those problems, many have shifted their focus to linkage of bottom-up climate policies such as regional carbon markets. This approach is appealing, but we identify four obstacles to successful linkage: different levels of ambition; competing domestic policy objectives; objections to financial transfers; and the difficulty of close regulatory coordination. Even with a more decentralized approach, overcoming the 'global warming gridlock' of the intergovernmental negotiations will require close international coordination. We demonstrate how a balance of bottom-up and top-down elements can create a path toward an effective global climate architecture.

  10. Efficient Record Linkage Algorithms Using Complete Linkage Clustering.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mamun, Abdullah-Al; Aseltine, Robert; Rajasekaran, Sanguthevar

    2016-01-01

    Data from different agencies share data of the same individuals. Linking these datasets to identify all the records belonging to the same individuals is a crucial and challenging problem, especially given the large volumes of data. A large number of available algorithms for record linkage are prone to either time inefficiency or low-accuracy in finding matches and non-matches among the records. In this paper we propose efficient as well as reliable sequential and parallel algorithms for the record linkage problem employing hierarchical clustering methods. We employ complete linkage hierarchical clustering algorithms to address this problem. In addition to hierarchical clustering, we also use two other techniques: elimination of duplicate records and blocking. Our algorithms use sorting as a sub-routine to identify identical copies of records. We have tested our algorithms on datasets with millions of synthetic records. Experimental results show that our algorithms achieve nearly 100% accuracy. Parallel implementations achieve almost linear speedups. Time complexities of these algorithms do not exceed those of previous best-known algorithms. Our proposed algorithms outperform previous best-known algorithms in terms of accuracy consuming reasonable run times.

  11. North-South Business Linkages

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Olav Jull; Kuada, John

    2006-01-01

    Based on empirical studies of linkages between TNCs and local firms in India, Malaysia, Vietnam, Ghana and South Africa, five themes are discussed and related to present theoretical perspectives. The themes are (1) Linakge Governance; (2) Globalisation and the dynamics in developing countries (the...... TNC-driven markets in developing countries); (3) The upgrading impact of FDI; (4) Non-equity linkages as a platform for business development, and (5) The learning perspective on international business linakges. The chapter offers at the end a three-dimanional model for impacts of business linkages....

  12. Linkages between ocean circulation, heat uptake and transient warming: a sensitivity study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfister, Patrik; Stocker, Thomas

    2016-04-01

    Transient global warming due to greenhouse gas radiative forcing is substantially reduced by ocean heat uptake (OHU). However, the fraction of equilibrium warming that is realized in transient climate model simulations differs strongly between models (Frölicher and Paynter 2015). It has been shown that this difference is not only related to the magnitude of OHU, but also to the radiative response the OHU causes, measured by the OHU efficacy (Winton et al., 2010). This efficacy is strongly influenced by the spatial pattern of the OHU and its changes (Rose et al. 2014, Winton et al. 2013), predominantly caused by changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Even in absence of external greenhouse gas forcing, an AMOC weakening causes a radiative imbalance at the top of the atmosphere (Peltier and Vettoretti, 2014), inducing in a net warming of the Earth System. We investigate linkages between those findings by performing both freshwater and greenhouse gas experiments in an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity. To assess the sensitivity of the results to ocean and atmospheric transport as well as climate sensitivity, we use an ensemble of model versions, systematically varying key parameters. We analyze circulation changes and radiative adjustments in conjunction with traditional warming metrics such as the transient climate response and the equilibrium climate sensitivity. This aims to improve the understanding of the influence of ocean circulation and OHU on transient climate change, and of the relevance of different metrics for describing this influence. References: Frölicher, T. L. and D.J. Paynter (2015), Extending the relationship between global warming and cumulative carbon emissions to multi-millennial timescales, Environ. Res. Lett., 10, 075022 Peltier, W. R., and G. Vettoretti (2014), Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillations predicted in a comprehensive model of glacial climate: A "kicked" salt oscillator in the Atlantic, Geophys. Res

  13. Using Content-Aligned Assessments to Identify Weaknesses in Students' Understanding of Fundamental Weather and Climate Ideas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wertheim, J.; Willard, S.

    2011-12-01

    There is growing interest in ensuring that citizens understand weather and climate sufficiently to make informed decisions, and these topics are gaining increased attention in K-12 education. The National Research Council recently released A Framework for K-12 Science Education with the expectation that U.S. 12th graders must have a sophisticated knowledge of climate change, including the role of deep time, variability, and computer modeling in the prediction of climate impacts on the planet and human activity. This requirement demands that students extend their understanding of climate change to the past and future, but it is important to recognize that many students know little about prerequisite ideas, such as daily and annual weather and climate processes, and this problem must be addressed prior to introducing the complexities of the climate system. In order to diagnose weaknesses in students' foundational understanding of the complex climate system, we primarily assessed a middle school (MS)-level understanding of the core elements of the system, in addition to a high school (HS)-level understanding of seasons. We described grade appropriate, coherent, functioning conceptual models for each targeted idea, and decomposed them into explicit learning goals. We then applied Project 2061's rigorous item development procedure to produce 235 high-quality, misconception-based multiple choice test items. These items were tested with a national sample of approximately 20,000 students, grades 6-12, in two phases (Spring 2010 & 2011). Here we report results from the second phase, including items targeting knowledge about convection, daily and annual air temperature patterns, factors that influence air temperature, and seasons. Overall, HS students outperformed MS students on these items by an average of only 3% (MS:31% correct; HS:34% correct). These data show a few strong misconceptions (e.g., 47% of students think that the North Pole is always angled toward the Sun

  14. Risk, Rationality and Nudging in Late Modern Society: Understanding the dynamics of the climate crisis

    OpenAIRE

    Jakobsen, Terne Sasha Thorn

    2016-01-01

    This study seeks to explore and explain how nudge theory may contribute to the understanding of thedynamics of the climate crisis in a ‘world risk society’. It is based on Ulrich Beck’s theory of a worldrisk society and unfolds through the combination of theories about risk, rationality and behaviour thatare ultimately brought together in relation to the climate crisis. A critical realistic perspective andmethod is taken to explore three hypothetical premises: 1) That the climate crisis is a ...

  15. Characterizing and understanding the climatic determinism of high- to low-frequency variations in precipitation in northwestern France using a coupled wavelet multiresolution/statistical downscaling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massei, Nicolas; Dieppois, Bastien; Hannah, David; Lavers, David; Fossa, Manuel; Laignel, Benoit; Debret, Maxime

    2017-04-01

    Geophysical signals oscillate over several time-scales that explain different amount of their overall variability and may be related to different physical processes. Characterizing and understanding such variabilities in hydrological variations and investigating their determinism is one important issue in a context of climate change, as these variabilities can be occasionally superimposed to long-term trend possibly due to climate change. It is also important to refine our understanding of time-scale dependent linkages between large-scale climatic variations and hydrological responses on the regional or local-scale. Here we investigate such links by conducting a wavelet multiresolution statistical dowscaling approach of precipitation in northwestern France (Seine river catchment) over 1950-2016 using sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature (SST) as indicators of atmospheric and oceanic circulations, respectively. Previous results demonstrated that including multiresolution decomposition in a statistical downscaling model (within a so-called multiresolution ESD model) using SLP as large-scale predictor greatly improved simulation of low-frequency, i.e. interannual to interdecadal, fluctuations observed in precipitation. Building on these results, continuous wavelet transform of simulated precipiation using multiresolution ESD confirmed the good performance of the model to better explain variability at all time-scales. A sensitivity analysis of the model to the choice of the scale and wavelet function used was also tested. It appeared that whatever the wavelet used, the model performed similarly. The spatial patterns of SLP found as the best predictors for all time-scales, which resulted from the wavelet decomposition, revealed different structures according to time-scale, showing possible different determinisms. More particularly, some low-frequency components ( 3.2-yr and 19.3-yr) showed a much wide-spread spatial extentsion across the Atlantic

  16. Understanding the Climate-knowledge Sharing Relation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Llopis, Oscar; Foss, Nicolai Juul

    2016-01-01

    motivation and job autonomy as moderators of this relationship. We find that the social climate for cooperation better predicts knowledge sharing when employees show low levels of intrinsic motivation and have high levels of job autonomy. This suggests that a cooperative climate and intrinsic motivation...... are substitutes with respect to their impact on knowledge-sharing behaviors, while climate and job autonomy are complements. We find support for these ideas in data gathered from a sample of 170 employees of a knowledge-intensive firm....

  17. Climate changes - To understand and to react

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-01-01

    The first part of this report recalls the definition of the greenhouse effect, comments the climate past variations, outlines that climate changes are already here and that greenhouse effect has a human origin, and discusses the expected impacts during the 21. century. The second part presents the basis of international action in the struggle against climate change, outlines the necessity to strengthen this international action, describes the role of Europe in international negotiations on climate, outlines the need of an international agreement on climate, proposes an overview of the French climate policy (national and local actions), and outlines that some political responses do not match with sustainable development (nuclear energy, agro-fuels, carbon capture and storage, shale gas and oil). The third part indicates how one can compute his own impact on climate, and presents some collective and citizen innovative initiatives in the fields of agriculture and food, of energy, of transports and mobility, and of wastes

  18. Linkage mechanisms in the vertebrate skull: Structure and function of three-dimensional, parallel transmission systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsen, Aaron M; Westneat, Mark W

    2016-12-01

    Many musculoskeletal systems, including the skulls of birds, fishes, and some lizards consist of interconnected chains of mobile skeletal elements, analogous to linkage mechanisms used in engineering. Biomechanical studies have applied linkage models to a diversity of musculoskeletal systems, with previous applications primarily focusing on two-dimensional linkage geometries, bilaterally symmetrical pairs of planar linkages, or single four-bar linkages. Here, we present new, three-dimensional (3D), parallel linkage models of the skulls of birds and fishes and use these models (available as free kinematic simulation software), to investigate structure-function relationships in these systems. This new computational framework provides an accessible and integrated workflow for exploring the evolution of structure and function in complex musculoskeletal systems. Linkage simulations show that kinematic transmission, although a suitable functional metric for linkages with single rotating input and output links, can give misleading results when applied to linkages with substantial translational components or multiple output links. To take into account both linear and rotational displacement we define force mechanical advantage for a linkage (analogous to lever mechanical advantage) and apply this metric to measure transmission efficiency in the bird cranial mechanism. For linkages with multiple, expanding output points we propose a new functional metric, expansion advantage, to measure expansion amplification and apply this metric to the buccal expansion mechanism in fishes. Using the bird cranial linkage model, we quantify the inaccuracies that result from simplifying a 3D geometry into two dimensions. We also show that by combining single-chain linkages into parallel linkages, more links can be simulated while decreasing or maintaining the same number of input parameters. This generalized framework for linkage simulation and analysis can accommodate linkages of differing

  19. Numerical Modeling of Climate-Chemistry Connections: Recent Developments and Future Challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick Jöckel

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper reviews the current state and development of different numerical model classes that are used to simulate the global atmospheric system, particularly Earth’s climate and climate-chemistry connections. The focus is on Chemistry-Climate Models. In general, these serve to examine dynamical and chemical processes in the Earth atmosphere, their feedback, and interaction with climate. Such models have been established as helpful tools in addition to analyses of observational data. Definitions of the global model classes are given and their capabilities as well as weaknesses are discussed. Examples of scientific studies indicate how numerical exercises contribute to an improved understanding of atmospheric behavior. There, the focus is on synergistic investigations combining observations and model results. The possible future developments and challenges are presented, not only from the scientific point of view but also regarding the computer technology and respective consequences for numerical modeling of atmospheric processes. In the future, a stronger cross-linkage of subject-specific scientists is necessary, to tackle the looming challenges. It should link the specialist discipline and applied computer science.

  20. Understanding Climate Adaptation on Public Lands in the Upper Midwest: Implications for Monitoring and Tracking Progress

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anhalt-Depies, Christine M.; Knoot, Tricia Gorby; Rissman, Adena R.; Sharp, Anthony K.; Martin, Karl J.

    2016-05-01

    There are limited examples of efforts to systematically monitor and track climate change adaptation progress in the context of natural resource management, despite substantial investments in adaptation initiatives. To better understand the status of adaptation within state natural resource agencies, we utilized and problematized a rational decision-making framework to characterize adaptation at the level of public land managers in the Upper Midwest. We conducted in-depth interviews with 29 biologists and foresters to provide an understanding of managers' experiences with, and perceptions of, climate change impacts, efforts towards planning for climate change, and a full range of actions implemented to address climate change. While the majority of managers identified climate change impacts affecting their region, they expressed significant uncertainty in interpreting those signals. Just under half of managers indicated planning efforts are underway, although most planning is remote from local management. Actions already implemented include both forward-looking measures and those aimed at coping with current impacts. In addition, cross-scale dynamics emerged as an important theme related to the overall adaptation process. The results hold implications for tracking future progress on climate change adaptation. Common definitions or measures of adaptation (e.g., presence of planning documents) may need to be reassessed for applicability at the level of public land managers.

  1. The linkages between photosynthesis, productivity, growth and biomass in lowland Amazonian forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malhi, Yadvinder; Doughty, Christopher E; Goldsmith, Gregory R; Metcalfe, Daniel B; Girardin, Cécile A J; Marthews, Toby R; Del Aguila-Pasquel, Jhon; Aragão, Luiz E O C; Araujo-Murakami, Alejandro; Brando, Paulo; da Costa, Antonio C L; Silva-Espejo, Javier E; Farfán Amézquita, Filio; Galbraith, David R; Quesada, Carlos A; Rocha, Wanderley; Salinas-Revilla, Norma; Silvério, Divino; Meir, Patrick; Phillips, Oliver L

    2015-06-01

    Understanding the relationship between photosynthesis, net primary productivity and growth in forest ecosystems is key to understanding how these ecosystems will respond to global anthropogenic change, yet the linkages among these components are rarely explored in detail. We provide the first comprehensive description of the productivity, respiration and carbon allocation of contrasting lowland Amazonian forests spanning gradients in seasonal water deficit and soil fertility. Using the largest data set assembled to date, ten sites in three countries all studied with a standardized methodology, we find that (i) gross primary productivity (GPP) has a simple relationship with seasonal water deficit, but that (ii) site-to-site variations in GPP have little power in explaining site-to-site spatial variations in net primary productivity (NPP) or growth because of concomitant changes in carbon use efficiency (CUE), and conversely, the woody growth rate of a tropical forest is a very poor proxy for its productivity. Moreover, (iii) spatial patterns of biomass are much more driven by patterns of residence times (i.e. tree mortality rates) than by spatial variation in productivity or tree growth. Current theory and models of tropical forest carbon cycling under projected scenarios of global atmospheric change can benefit from advancing beyond a focus on GPP. By improving our understanding of poorly understood processes such as CUE, NPP allocation and biomass turnover times, we can provide more complete and mechanistic approaches to linking climate and tropical forest carbon cycling. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. Paleoclimates: Understanding climate change past and present

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cronin, Thomas M.

    2010-01-01

    The field of paleoclimatology relies on physical, chemical, and biological proxies of past climate changes that have been preserved in natural archives such as glacial ice, tree rings, sediments, corals, and speleothems. Paleoclimate archives obtained through field investigations, ocean sediment coring expeditions, ice sheet coring programs, and other projects allow scientists to reconstruct climate change over much of earth's history. When combined with computer model simulations, paleoclimatic reconstructions are used to test hypotheses about the causes of climatic change, such as greenhouse gases, solar variability, earth's orbital variations, and hydrological, oceanic, and tectonic processes. This book is a comprehensive, state-of-the art synthesis of paleoclimate research covering all geological timescales, emphasizing topics that shed light on modern trends in the earth's climate. Thomas M. Cronin discusses recent discoveries about past periods of global warmth, changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, abrupt climate and sea-level change, natural temperature variability, and other topics directly relevant to controversies over the causes and impacts of climate change. This text is geared toward advanced undergraduate and graduate students and researchers in geology, geography, biology, glaciology, oceanography, atmospheric sciences, and climate modeling, fields that contribute to paleoclimatology. This volume can also serve as a reference for those requiring a general background on natural climate variability.

  3. COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH: TOWARDS ADVANCED UNDERSTANDING AND PREDICTIVE CAPABILITY OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE ARCTIC USING A HIGH-RESOLUTION REGIONAL ARCTIC CLIMATE SYSTEM MODEL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gutowski, William J.

    2013-02-07

    The motivation for this project was to advance the science of climate change and prediction in the Arctic region. Its primary goals were to (i) develop a state-of-the-art Regional Arctic Climate system Model (RACM) including high-resolution atmosphere, land, ocean, sea ice and land hydrology components and (ii) to perform extended numerical experiments using high performance computers to minimize uncertainties and fundamentally improve current predictions of climate change in the northern polar regions. These goals were realized first through evaluation studies of climate system components via one-way coupling experiments. Simulations were then used to examine the effects of advancements in climate component systems on their representation of main physics, time-mean fields and to understand variability signals at scales over many years. As such this research directly addressed some of the major science objectives of the BER Climate Change Research Division (CCRD) regarding the advancement of long-term climate prediction.

  4. A multiple-proxy approach to understanding rapid Holocene climate change in Southeast Greenland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davin, S. H.; Bradley, R. S.; Balascio, N. L.; de Wet, G.

    2012-12-01

    The susceptibility of the Arctic to climate change has made it an excellent workshop for paleoclimatological research. Although there have been previous studies concerning climate variability carried out in the Arctic, there remains a critical dearth of knowledge due the limited number of high-resolution Holocene climate-proxy records available from this region. This gap skews our understanding of observed and predicted climate change, and fuels uncertainty both in the realms of science and policy. This study takes a comprehensive approach to tracking Holocene climate variability in the vicinity of Tasiilaq, Southeast Greenland using a ~5.6 m sediment core from Lower Sermilik Lake. An age-depth model for the core has been established using 8 radiocarbon dates, the oldest of which was taken at 4 m down core and has been been dated to approximately 6.2 kyr BP. The bottom meter of the core below the final radiocarbon date contains a transition from cobbles and coarse sand to organic-rich laminations, indicating the termination of direct glacial influence and therefore likely marking the end of the last glacial period in this region. The remainder of the core is similarly organic-rich, with light-to-dark brown laminations ranging from 0.5 -1 cm in thickness and riddled with turbidites. Using this core in tandem with findings from an on-site assessment of the geomorphic history of the locale we attempt to assess and infer the rapid climatic shifts associated with the Holocene on a sub-centennial scale. Such changes include the termination of the last glacial period, the Mid-Holocene Climatic Optimum, the Neoglacial Period, the Medieval Climatic Optimum, and the Little Ice Age. A multiple proxy approach including magnetic susceptibility, bulk organic geochemistry, elemental profiles acquired by XRF scanning, grain-size, and spectral data will be used to characterize the sediment and infer paleoclimate conditions. Additionally, percent biogenic silica by weight has been

  5. Hidden linkages between urbanization and food systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seto, Karen C; Ramankutty, Navin

    2016-05-20

    Global societies are becoming increasingly urban. This shift toward urban living is changing our relationship with food, including how we shop and what we buy, as well as ideas about sanitation and freshness. Achieving food security in an era of rapid urbanization will require considerably more understanding about how urban and food systems are intertwined. Here we discuss some potential understudied linkages that are ripe for further examination. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  6. Data-based perfect-deficit approach to understanding climate extremes and forest carbon assimilation capacity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wei, Suhua; Yi, Chuixiang; Hendrey, George; Eaton, Timothy; Rustic, Gerald; Wang, Shaoqiang; Liu, Heping; Krakauer, Nir Y; Wang, Weiguo; Desai, Ankur R; Montagnani, Leonardo; Tha Paw U, Kyaw; Falk, Matthias; Black, Andrew; Bernhofer, Christian; Grünwald, Thomas; Laurila, Tuomas; Cescatti, Alessandro; Moors, Eddy

    2014-01-01

    Several lines of evidence suggest that the warming climate plays a vital role in driving certain types of extreme weather. The impact of warming and of extreme weather on forest carbon assimilation capacity is poorly known. Filling this knowledge gap is critical towards understanding the amount of carbon that forests can hold. Here, we used a perfect-deficit approach to identify forest canopy photosynthetic capacity (CPC) deficits and analyze how they correlate to climate extremes, based on observational data measured by the eddy covariance method at 27 forest sites over 146 site-years. We found that droughts severely affect the carbon assimilation capacities of evergreen broadleaf forest (EBF) and deciduous broadleaf forest. The carbon assimilation capacities of Mediterranean forests were highly sensitive to climate extremes, while marine forest climates tended to be insensitive to climate extremes. Our estimates suggest an average global reduction of forest CPC due to unfavorable climate extremes of 6.3 Pg C (∼5.2% of global gross primary production) per growing season over 2001–2010, with EBFs contributing 52% of the total reduction

  7. Early Holocene hydroclimate of Baffin Bay: Understanding the interplay between abrupt climate change events and ice sheet fluctuations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corcoran, M. C.; Thomas, E. K.; Castañeda, I. S.; Briner, J. P.

    2017-12-01

    Understanding the causes of ice sheet fluctuations resulting in sea level rise is essential in today's warming climate. In high-latitude ice-sheet-proximal environments such as Baffin Bay, studying both the cause and the rate of ice sheet variability during past abrupt climate change events aids in predictions. Past climate reconstructions are used to understand ice sheet responses to changes in temperature and precipitation. The 9,300 and 8,200 yr BP events are examples of abrupt climate change events in the Baffin Bay region during which there were multiple re-advances of the Greenland and Laurentide ice sheets. High-resolution (decadal-scale) hydroclimate variability near the ice sheet margins during these abrupt climate change events is still unknown. We will generate a decadal-scale record of early Holocene temperature and precipitation using leaf wax hydrogen isotopes, δ2Hwax, from a lake sediment archive on Baffin Island, western Baffin Bay, to better understand abrupt climate change in this region. Shifts in temperature and moisture source result in changes in environmental water δ2H, which in turn is reflected in δ2Hwax, allowing for past hydroclimate to be determined from these compound-specific isotopes. The combination of terrestrial and aquatic δ2Hwax is used to determine soil evaporation and is ultimately used to reconstruct moisture variability. We will compare our results with a previous analysis of δ2Hwax and branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers, a temperature and pH proxy, in lake sediment from western Greenland, eastern Baffin Bay, which indicates that cool and dry climate occurred in response to freshwater forcing events in the Labrador Sea. Reconstructing and comparing records on both the western and eastern sides of Baffin Bay during the early Holocene will allow for a spatial understanding of temperature and moisture balance changes during abrupt climate events, aiding in ice sheet modeling and predictions of future sea level

  8. Long-term environmental drivers of DOC fluxes: Linkages between management, hydrology and climate in a subtropical coastal estuary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regier, Peter; Briceño, Henry; Jaffé, Rudolf

    2016-12-01

    Urban and agricultural development of the South Florida peninsula has disrupted historic freshwater flow in the Everglades, a hydrologically connected ecosystem stretching from central Florida to the Gulf of Mexico, USA. Current system-scale restoration efforts aim to restore natural hydrologic regimes to reestablish pre-drainage ecosystem functioning through increased water availability, quality and timing. Aquatic transport of carbon in this ecosystem, primarily as dissolved organic carbon (DOC), plays a critical role in biogeochemical cycling and food-web dynamics, and will be affected both by water management policies and climate change. To better understand DOC dynamics in South Florida estuaries and how hydrology, climate and water management may affect them, 14 years of monthly data collected in the Shark River estuary were used to examine DOC flux dynamics in a broader environmental context. Multivariate statistical methods were applied to long-term datasets for hydrology, water quality and climate to untangle the interconnected environmental drivers that control DOC export at monthly and annual scales. DOC fluxes were determined to be primarily controlled by hydrology but also by seasonality and long-term climate patterns and episodic weather events. A four-component model (salinity, rainfall, inflow, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) capable of predicting DOC fluxes (R2 = 0.84, p water management and salinity.

  9. [MapDraw: a microsoft excel macro for drawing genetic linkage maps based on given genetic linkage data].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Ren-Hu; Meng, Jin-Ling

    2003-05-01

    MAPMAKER is one of the most widely used computer software package for constructing genetic linkage maps.However, the PC version, MAPMAKER 3.0 for PC, could not draw the genetic linkage maps that its Macintosh version, MAPMAKER 3.0 for Macintosh,was able to do. Especially in recent years, Macintosh computer is much less popular than PC. Most of the geneticists use PC to analyze their genetic linkage data. So a new computer software to draw the same genetic linkage maps on PC as the MAPMAKER for Macintosh to do on Macintosh has been crying for. Microsoft Excel,one component of Microsoft Office package, is one of the most popular software in laboratory data processing. Microsoft Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) is one of the most powerful functions of Microsoft Excel. Using this program language, we can take creative control of Excel, including genetic linkage map construction, automatic data processing and more. In this paper, a Microsoft Excel macro called MapDraw is constructed to draw genetic linkage maps on PC computer based on given genetic linkage data. Use this software,you can freely construct beautiful genetic linkage map in Excel and freely edit and copy it to Word or other application. This software is just an Excel format file. You can freely copy it from ftp://211.69.140.177 or ftp://brassica.hzau.edu.cn and the source code can be found in Excel's Visual Basic Editor.

  10. From Enclave to Linkage Economies?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Michael W.

    as the enclave economy par excellence, moving in with fully integrated value chains, extracting resources and exporting them as commodities having virtually no linkages to the local economy. However, new opportunities for promoting linkages are offered by changing business strategies of local African enterprises...... as well as foreign multinational corporations (MNCs). MNCs in extractives are increasingly seeking local linkages as part of their efficiency, risk, and asset-seeking strategies, and linkage programmes are becoming integral elements in many MNCs’ corporate social responsibility (CSR) activities....... At the same time, local African enterprises are eager to, and increasingly capable of, linking up to the foreign investors in order to expand their activities and acquire technology, skills and market access. The changing strategies of MNCs and the improving capabilities of African enterprises offer new...

  11. Projected future climate changes in the context of geological and geomorphological hazards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liggins, Felicity; Betts, Richard A; McGuire, Bill

    2010-05-28

    On palaeoclimate time scales, enhanced levels of geological and geomorphological activity have been linked to climatic factors, including examples of processes that are expected to be important in current and future anthropogenic climate change. Planetary warming leading to increased rainfall, ice-mass loss and rising sea levels is potentially relevant to geospheric responses in many geologically diverse regions. Anthropogenic climate change, therefore, has the potential to alter the risk of geological and geomorphological hazards through the twenty-first century and beyond. Here, we review climate change projections from both global and regional climate models in the context of geohazards. In assessing the potential for geospheric responses to climate change, it appears prudent to consider regional levels of warming of 2 degrees C above average pre-industrial temperature as being potentially unavoidable as an influence on processes requiring a human adaptation response within this century. At the other end of the scale when considering changes that could be avoided by reduction of emissions, scenarios of unmitigated warming exceeding 4 degrees C in the global average include much greater local warming in some regions. However, considerable further work is required to better understand the uncertainties associated with these projections, uncertainties inherent not only in the climate modelling but also in the linkages between climate change and geospheric responses.

  12. Argumentation as a Strategy for Increasing Preservice Teachers’ Understanding of Climate Change, a Key Global Socioscientific Issue

    OpenAIRE

    Lambert, Julie L.; Bleicher, Robert E.

    2017-01-01

    Findings of this study suggest that scientific argumentation can play an effective role in addressing complex socioscientific issues (i.e. global climate change). This research examined changes in preservice teachers’ knowledge and perceptions about climate change in an innovative undergraduate-level elementary science methods course. The preservice teachers’ understanding of fundamental concepts (e.g., the difference between weather and climate, causes of recent global warming, etc.) increas...

  13. Review of the Linkages between Gender Equity and Climate ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The impacts of global climate change are not only physical and economic, (for instance, in the form of natural disasters), but also social and cultural, jeopardizing environmentally based ... They are also less mobile due to strict and gendered codes of social behavior, and have fewer chances to escape from affected areas.

  14. Understanding Student Cognition about Complex Earth System Processes Related to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNeal, K. S.; Libarkin, J.; Ledley, T. S.; Dutta, S.; Templeton, M. C.; Geroux, J.; Blakeney, G. A.

    2011-12-01

    The Earth's climate system includes complex behavior and interconnections with other Earth spheres that present challenges to student learning. To better understand these unique challenges, we have conducted experiments with high-school and introductory level college students to determine how information pertaining to the connections between the Earth's atmospheric system and the other Earth spheres (e.g., hydrosphere and cryosphere) are processed. Specifically, we include psychomotor tests (e.g., eye-tracking) and open-ended questionnaires in this research study, where participants were provided scientific images of the Earth (e.g., global precipitation and ocean and atmospheric currents), eye-tracked, and asked to provide causal or relational explanations about the viewed images. In addition, the students engaged in on-line modules (http://serc.carleton.edu/eslabs/climate/index.html) focused on Earth system science as training activities to address potential cognitive barriers. The developed modules included interactive media, hands-on lessons, links to outside resources, and formative assessment questions to promote a supportive and data-rich learning environment. Student eye movements were tracked during engagement with the materials to determine the role of perception and attention on understanding. Students also completed a conceptual questionnaire pre-post to determine if these on-line curriculum materials assisted in their development of connections between Earth's atmospheric system and the other Earth systems. The pre-post results of students' thinking about climate change concepts, as well as eye-tracking results, will be presented.

  15. Spatial planning for adapting to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Walsum, van P.E.V.; Runhaar, J.; Helming, J.F.M.

    2005-01-01

    During the past decades human interference in regional hydrologic systems has intensified. These systems act as an integrating medium. They link climate, human activities and ecologic processes through groundwater and surface water interactions. For simulating these linkages an integrated regional

  16. Chinese Tourists’ Perceptions of Climate Change and Mitigation Behavior: An Application of Norm Activation Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guiqiang Qiao

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available It is well recognized that tourism development is a prominent contributor to climate change, but is also a “victim” of climate change. Therefore, to mitigate climate change is of great importance for the sustainability of tourism. Yet extant studies regarding tourism and climate change tend to be dominated by a supply-side stance, albeit the core role of the tourist in the tourism industry. While researchers are increasingly adopting a tourist perspective, few seek to understand the linkage between climate change and tourists’ specific mitigation behaviors in a tourism context; this is especially so in China. This study investigates the impact of Chinese tourists’ perceptions of climate change on their mitigation behaviors based on norm activation theory. Drawing on 557 self-administrated questionnaires collected in China, it finds that tourists’ perceptions of climate change and perceived contribution of tourism to climate change both positively affect energy saving and carbon reduction behavior in tourism. Yet, compared with perceived contribution of tourism to climate change, tourists’ perceptions of climate change are found to be a much stronger predictor for energy saving and carbon reduction behavior. Therefore, it suggests that tourists’ perceptions of climate change in a general context is more strongly related to climate change mitigation behavior in tourism, calling for attention to go beyond the tourism context to alleviate the negative impacts of tourism on climate change.

  17. A Big Data Guide to Understanding Climate Change: The Case for Theory-Guided Data Science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faghmous, James H; Kumar, Vipin

    2014-09-01

    Global climate change and its impact on human life has become one of our era's greatest challenges. Despite the urgency, data science has had little impact on furthering our understanding of our planet in spite of the abundance of climate data. This is a stark contrast from other fields such as advertising or electronic commerce where big data has been a great success story. This discrepancy stems from the complex nature of climate data as well as the scientific questions climate science brings forth. This article introduces a data science audience to the challenges and opportunities to mine large climate datasets, with an emphasis on the nuanced difference between mining climate data and traditional big data approaches. We focus on data, methods, and application challenges that must be addressed in order for big data to fulfill their promise with regard to climate science applications. More importantly, we highlight research showing that solely relying on traditional big data techniques results in dubious findings, and we instead propose a theory-guided data science paradigm that uses scientific theory to constrain both the big data techniques as well as the results-interpretation process to extract accurate insight from large climate data .

  18. Climate change, cranes, and temperate floodplain ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Sammy L.

    2010-01-01

    Floodplain ecosystems provide important habitat to cranes globally. Lateral, longitudinal, vertical, and temporal hydrologic connectivity in rivers is essential to maintaining the functions and values of these systems. Agricultural development, flood control, water diversions, dams, and other anthropogenic activities have greatly affected hydrologic connectivity of river systems worldwide and altered the functional capacity of these systems. Although the specific effects of climate change in any given area are unknown, increased intensity and frequency of flooding and droughts and increased air and water temperatures are among many potential effects that can act synergistically with existing human modifications in these systems to create even greater challenges in maintaining ecosystem productivity. In this paper, I review basic hydrologic and geomorphic processes of river systems and use three North American rivers (Guadalupe, Platte, and Rio Grande) that are important to cranes as case studies to illustrate the challenges facing managers tasked with balancing the needs of cranes and people in the face of an uncertain climatic future. Each river system has unique natural and anthropogenic characteristics that will affect conservation strategies. Mitigating the effects of climate change on river systems necessitates an understanding of river/floodplain/landscape linkages, which include people and their laws as well as existing floodplain ecosystem conditions.

  19. Climate change collaboration among natural resource management agencies: lessons learned from two US regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemieux, Christopher J.; Thompson, Jessica; Slocombe, D. Scott; Schuster, Rudy

    2015-01-01

    It has been argued that regional collaboration can facilitate adaptation to climate change impacts through integrated planning and management. In an attempt to understand the underlying institutional factors that either support or contest this assumption, this paper explores the institutional factors influencing adaptation to climate change at the regional scale, where multiple public land and natural resource management jurisdictions are involved. Insights from two mid-western US case studies reveal that several challenges to collaboration persist and prevent fully integrative multi-jurisdictional adaptation planning at a regional scale. We propose that some of these challenges, such as lack of adequate time, funding and communication channels, be reframed as opportunities to build interdependence, identify issue-linkages and collaboratively explore the nature and extent of organisational trade-offs with respect to regional climate change adaptation efforts. Such a reframing can better facilitate multi-jurisdictional adaptation planning and management of shared biophysical resources generally while simultaneously enhancing organisational capacity to mitigate negative effects and take advantage of potentially favourable future conditions in an era characterised by rapid climate change.

  20. Forests under climate change and air pollution: Gaps in understanding and future directions for research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matyssek, R.; Wieser, G.; Calfapietra, C.; Vries, W. de; Dizengremel, P.; Ernst, D.; Jolivet, Y.; Mikkelsen, T.N.; Mohren, G.M.J.; Le Thiec, D.; Tuovinen, J.-P.

    2012-01-01

    Forests in Europe face significant changes in climate, which in interaction with air quality changes, may significantly affect forest productivity, stand composition and carbon sequestration in both vegetation and soils. Identified knowledge gaps and research needs include: (i) interaction between changes in air quality (trace gas concentrations), climate and other site factors on forest ecosystem response, (ii) significance of biotic processes in system response, (iii) tools for mechanistic and diagnostic understanding and upscaling, and (iv) the need for unifying modelling and empirical research for synthesis. This position paper highlights the above focuses, including the global dimension of air pollution as part of climate change and the need for knowledge transfer to enable reliable risk assessment. A new type of research site in forest ecosystems (“supersites”) will be conducive to addressing these gaps by enabling integration of experimentation and modelling within the soil-plant-atmosphere interface, as well as further model development. - Highlights: ► Research needs are identified for forests under climate change and air pollution. ► Abiotic–biotic interactions in response impede tree-ecosystem upscaling. ► Integration of empirical and modelling research is advocated. ► The concept of multi-scale investigations at novel “Supersites” is propagated. ► “Supersites” warrant mechanistic understanding of soil-plant-atmosphere interface. - Forests under climate change and air pollution require empirical and modelling research needs to be integrated at novel “Supersites” through multi-scale investigations.

  1. Changing rural urban linkages in Africa in a globalizing economy ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The role of rural-urban linkages is critically vital for Africa‟s development in this era of rapid socio-economic transformation. A better understanding of cities and how they relate both to the rural and urban development is needed in view of the continuous changes in development. This paper argues that many of Africa‟s ...

  2. Conceptualizing Climate Change in the Context of a Climate System: Implications for Climate and Environmental Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepardson, Daniel P.; Niyogi, Dev; Roychoudhury, Anita; Hirsch, Andrew

    2012-01-01

    Today there is much interest in teaching secondary students about climate change. Much of this effort has focused directly on students' understanding of climate change. We hypothesize, however, that in order for students to understand climate change they must first understand climate as a system and how changes to this system due to both natural…

  3. Why should we care? Awakening Middle and High School students to the reality of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manley, J. M.; Barr, A. N.; Ellins, K. K.; Haddad, N.; Ledley, T. S.; Dunlap, C.; Bardar, E.

    2012-12-01

    Our students, like too much of the American public, are largely unaware or apathetic to the changes in world climate and the impact that these changes have for life on Earth. This last year we, as two Middle and High School science teachers, were given the opportunity to use a new trial curriculum currently in development for TERC's EarthLabs collection to awaken those brains and assist our students in making personal lifestyle choices based on what they had learned. In addition, with support from TERC and The University of Texas Institute for Geophysics we began training other teachers on how to implement this curriculum in their classrooms to expose their students to our changing climate. Traditionally, the cryosphere and the carbon cycle are taught as discrete units without meaningful connections to areas of study that have personal relevance and impact. While pictures of polar bears and penguins evoke emotional responses, the changes coming to their worlds usually result only in another tug at the heartstrings. What if teachers better understood two vital components of Earth's climate system and were able to impart his understanding to their students? What if students based their responses to the information taught not on emotion, but on a deeper understanding of the forces driving climate change, their analysis of the scientific evidence and in the context of earth system science? In our presentation, we will give you (1) a glimpse into the challenges faced by today's science teachers in communicating the complicated, but ever-deepening understanding of the linkages between natural and human-driven factors on climate; (2) introduce you to two new modules in the EarthLabs curriculum designed to expose teachers and students to global scientific climate data and instrumentation; and (3) illustrate how student worldviews are changed though exposure to the latest in scientific discovery and understanding.

  4. iRESM INITIATIVE UNDERSTANDING DECISION SUPPORT NEEDS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION --US Midwest Region—

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rice, Jennie S.; Runci, Paul J.; Moss, Richard H.; Anderson, Kate L.

    2010-10-01

    The impacts of climate change are already affecting human and environmental systems worldwide, yet many uncertainties persist in the prediction of future climate changes and impacts due to limitations in scientific understanding of relevant causal factors. In particular, there is mounting urgency to efforts to improve models of human and environmental systems at the regional scale, and to integrate climate, ecosystem and energy-economic models to support policy, investment, and risk management decisions related to climate change mitigation (i.e., reducing greenhouse gas emissions) and adaptation (i.e., responding to climate change impacts). The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is developing a modeling framework, the integrated Regional Earth System Model (iRESM), to address regional human-environmental system interactions in response to climate change and the uncertainties therein. The framework will consist of a suite of integrated models representing regional climate change, regional climate policy, and the regional economy, with a focus on simulating the mitigation and adaptation decisions made over time in the energy, transportation, agriculture, and natural resource management sectors.

  5. Climate Stability: Pathway to understand abrupt glacial climate shifts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, X.; Knorr, G.; Barker, S.; Lohmann, G.

    2017-12-01

    Glacial climate is marked by abrupt, millennial-scale climate changes known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) cycles that have been linked to variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). The most pronounced stadial coolings, Heinrich Stadials (HSs), are associated with massive iceberg discharges to the North Atlantic. This motivates scientists to consider that the North Atlantic freshwater perturbations is a common trigger of the associated abrupt transitions between weak and strong AMOC states. However, recent studies suggest that the Heinrich ice-surging events are triggered by ocean subsurface warming associated with an AMOC slow-down. Furthermore, the duration of ice-rafting events does not systematically coincide with the beginning and end of the pronounced cold conditions during HSs. In this context, we show that both, changes in atmospheric CO2 and ice sheet configuration can provide important control on the stability of the AMOC, using a coupled atmosphere-ocean model. Our simulations reveal that gradual changes in Northern Hemisphere ice sheet height and atmospheric CO2 can act as a trigger of abrupt glacial/deglacial climate changes. The simulated global climate responses—including abrupt warming in the North Atlantic, a northward shift of the tropical rain belts, and Southern Hemisphere cooling related to the bipolar seesaw—are generally consistent with empirical evidence. We further find that under a delicate configuration of atmospheric CO2 and ice sheet height the AMOC can be characterized by a self-oscillation (resonance) feature (Hopf Bifucation) with a 1000-year cycle that is comparable with observed small DO events during the MIS 3. This provides an alternative explanation for millennial-scale DO variability during glacial periods.

  6. The score statistic of the LD-lod analysis: detecting linkage adaptive to linkage disequilibrium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, J; Jiang, Y

    2001-01-01

    We study the properties of a modified lod score method for testing linkage that incorporates linkage disequilibrium (LD-lod). By examination of its score statistic, we show that the LD-lod score method adaptively combines two sources of information: (a) the IBD sharing score which is informative for linkage regardless of the existence of LD and (b) the contrast between allele-specific IBD sharing scores which is informative for linkage only in the presence of LD. We also consider the connection between the LD-lod score method and the transmission-disequilibrium test (TDT) for triad data and the mean test for affected sib pair (ASP) data. We show that, for triad data, the recessive LD-lod test is asymptotically equivalent to the TDT; and for ASP data, it is an adaptive combination of the TDT and the ASP mean test. We demonstrate that the LD-lod score method has relatively good statistical efficiency in comparison with the ASP mean test and the TDT for a broad range of LD and the genetic models considered in this report. Therefore, the LD-lod score method is an interesting approach for detecting linkage when the extent of LD is unknown, such as in a genome-wide screen with a dense set of genetic markers. Copyright 2001 S. Karger AG, Basel

  7. Climate change and livestock system in mountain: Understanding from Gandaki River basin of Nepal Himalaya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahal, P.; Shrestha, N. S.; Krakauer, N.; Lakhankar, T.; Panthi, J., Sr.; Pradhanang, S.; Jha, A. K.; Shrestha, M.; Sharma, M.

    2015-12-01

    In recent years climate change has emerged as a source of vulnerability for agro-livestock smallholders in Nepal where people are mostly dependent on rain-fed agriculture and livestock farming for their livelihoods. There is a need to understand and predict the potential impacts of climate change on agro-livestock farmer to develop effective mitigation and adaptation strategies. To understand dynamics of this vulnerability, we assess the farmers' perceptions of climate change, analysis of historical and future projections of climatic parameters and try to understand impact of climate change on livestock system in Gandaki River Basin of Central Nepal. During the period of 1981-2012, as reported by the mountain communities, the most serious hazards for livestock system and agriculture are the increasing trend of temperature, erratic rainfall patterns and increase in drought. Poor households without irrigated land are facing greater risks and stresses than well-off people. Analysis of historical climate data also supports the farmer perception. Result shows that there is increasing trend of temperature but no consistent trend in precipitation but a notable finding is that wet areas are getting wetter and dry areas getting drier. Besides that, there is increase in percentage of warm days and nights with decrease in the cool nights and days. The magnitude of the trend is found to be higher in high altitude. Trend of wet days has found to be increasing with decreasing in rainy days. Most areas are characterized by increases in both severity and frequency of drought and are more evident in recent years. The summers of 2004/05/06/09 and winters of 2006/08/09 were the worst widespread droughts and have a serious impact on livestock since 1981. Future projected change in temperature and precipitation obtained from downscaling the data global model by regional climate model shows that precipitation in central Nepal will change by -8% to 12% and temperature will change by 1

  8. Understanding, representing and communicating earth system processes in weather and climate within CNRCWP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sushama, Laxmi; Arora, Vivek; de Elia, Ramon; Déry, Stephen; Duguay, Claude; Gachon, Philippe; Gyakum, John; Laprise, René; Marshall, Shawn; Monahan, Adam; Scinocca, John; Thériault, Julie; Verseghy, Diana; Zwiers, Francis

    2017-04-01

    The Canadian Network for Regional Climate and Weather Processes (CNRCWP) provides significant advances and innovative research towards the ultimate goal of reducing uncertainty in numerical weather prediction and climate projections for Canada's Northern and Arctic regions. This talk will provide an overview of the Network and selected results related to the assessment of the added value of high-resolution modelling that has helped fill critical knowledge gaps in understanding the dynamics of extreme temperature and precipitation events and the complex land-atmosphere interactions and feedbacks in Canada's northern and Arctic regions. In addition, targeted developments in the Canadian regional climate model, that facilitate direct application of model outputs in impact and adaptation studies, particularly those related to the water, energy and infrastructure sectors will also be discussed. The close collaboration between the Network and its partners and end users contributed significantly to this effort.

  9. Convergence or divergence? Status and prospects for US climate strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Christiansen, Atle Christer

    2003-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to assess recent developments and prospects for future changes in United States (US) climate strategy. In doing so, the paper explores some of the key factors that have shaped strategies and policies to date, distinguishing between factors related to institutional and governance structures, linkages between science and policy, energy technology and the role of interest groups. Against this background, the paper attempts to explore future development paths for US climate policy. More specifically, the paper assesses opportunities for policy changes compared to the preferences of the current administration, and the prospects for future linkages between US and international climate change strategies. In brief, the paper argues that substantial changes are unlikely to take place in the near to medium term, leaving open, however, the possibility of wide-ranging changes in domestic politics or major incidents that could facilitate a shift in the perceived need for near-term action

  10. Planetary climates (princeton primers in climate)

    CERN Document Server

    Ingersoll, Andrew

    2013-01-01

    This concise, sophisticated introduction to planetary climates explains the global physical and chemical processes that determine climate on any planet or major planetary satellite--from Mercury to Neptune and even large moons such as Saturn's Titan. Although the climates of other worlds are extremely diverse, the chemical and physical processes that shape their dynamics are the same. As this book makes clear, the better we can understand how various planetary climates formed and evolved, the better we can understand Earth's climate history and future.

  11. Probabilistic linkage to enhance deterministic algorithms and reduce data linkage errors in hospital administrative data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagger-Johnson, Gareth; Harron, Katie; Goldstein, Harvey; Aldridge, Robert; Gilbert, Ruth

    2017-06-30

     BACKGROUND: The pseudonymisation algorithm used to link together episodes of care belonging to the same patients in England (HESID) has never undergone any formal evaluation, to determine the extent of data linkage error. To quantify improvements in linkage accuracy from adding probabilistic linkage to existing deterministic HESID algorithms. Inpatient admissions to NHS hospitals in England (Hospital Episode Statistics, HES) over 17 years (1998 to 2015) for a sample of patients (born 13/28th of months in 1992/1998/2005/2012). We compared the existing deterministic algorithm with one that included an additional probabilistic step, in relation to a reference standard created using enhanced probabilistic matching with additional clinical and demographic information. Missed and false matches were quantified and the impact on estimates of hospital readmission within one year were determined. HESID produced a high missed match rate, improving over time (8.6% in 1998 to 0.4% in 2015). Missed matches were more common for ethnic minorities, those living in areas of high socio-economic deprivation, foreign patients and those with 'no fixed abode'. Estimates of the readmission rate were biased for several patient groups owing to missed matches, which was reduced for nearly all groups. CONCLUSION: Probabilistic linkage of HES reduced missed matches and bias in estimated readmission rates, with clear implications for commissioning, service evaluation and performance monitoring of hospitals. The existing algorithm should be modified to address data linkage error, and a retrospective update of the existing data would address existing linkage errors and their implications.

  12. A Formalization of Linkage Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ingolfsdottir, Anna; Christensen, A.I.; Hansen, Jens A.

    In this report a formalization of genetic linkage analysis is introduced. Linkage analysis is a computationally hard biomathematical method, which purpose is to locate genes on the human genome. It is rooted in the new area of bioinformatics and no formalization of the method has previously been ...

  13. Global climate convention

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simonis, U.E.

    1991-01-01

    The effort of negotiate a global convention on climate change is one of mankind's great endeavours - and a challenge to economists and development planners. The inherent linkages between climate and the habitability of the earth are increasingly well recognized, and a convention could help to ensure that conserving the environment and developing the economy in the future must go hand in hand. Due to growing environmental concern the United Nations General Assembly has set into motion an international negotiating process for a framework convention on climate change. One the major tasks in these negotiations is how to share the duties in reducing climate relevant gases, particularly carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), between the industrial and the developing countries. The results and proposals could be among the most far-reaching ever for socio-economic development, indeed for global security and survival itself. While the negotiations will be about climate and protection of the atmosphere, they will be on fundamental global changes in energy policies, forestry, transport, technology, and on development pathways with low greenhouse gas emissions. Some of these aspects of a climate convention, particularly the distributional options and consequences for the North-South relations, are addressed in this chapter. (orig.)

  14. Can pictures speak a thousand words in understanding climate change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walton, P.

    2017-12-01

    Pictures are able to engage, inspire and educate people in a way that the spoken or written word cannot, and with 21st Century technology we now have even more ways to present images. Researchers and campaigners working in climate change have used the power of images to great effect, bringing the issue of a warming planet into stark relief through iconic scenes such as the forlorn polar bear adrift on an iceberg. Whilst undeniably successful, this image has now become passé and invisible necessitating the scientific community to identify new ways to engage and educate the general public. This paper reports on a new high resolution visualisation app that has been developed by the European Space Agency to illustrate the change over time of a number of climate variables. Data, collected via satellite Earth observations, have been rendered into visually stunning animations that can be interrogated in a number of ways to allow the user to understand the spatial and temporal changes of that variable. But is it enough? Can it ever be that all that glisters really is gold?

  15. Economic Growth, Structural Change and Productive Employment Linkages in India

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aggarwal, Aradhna

    2018-01-01

    This article presents a quantitative analysis of growth, structural change and employment linkages at the aggregate level and by sector under the state- and market-led regimes in India. The underlying objectives are: (a) to understand how economic liberalization has affected the economic and labour...... intervention to broad base structural change for generating productive employment, which is at the core of poverty reduction....

  16. Population, Environment, and Climate in the Albertine Rift: Understanding Local Impacts of Regional Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartter, J.; Ryan, S. J.; Diem, J.; Palace, M. W.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change is of critical concern for conservation and to develop appropriate policies and responses, it is important not only to anticipate the nature of changes, but also how they are perceived, interpreted and adapted to by local people. The Albertine Rift in East Africa is one of the most threatened biodiversity hotspots due to dense settlement, extreme poverty, and land conversion. We synthesize ongoing NSF-CNH research, where Ugandan park landscapes are examined to understand the impacts of climate change on livelihoods. Kibale National Park, the main study site, exemplifies the challenges facing many parks because of its isolation within a densely populated agricultural landscape. Three separate household surveys (n=251, 130, 100) reveal that the most perceived benefits provided by Kibale were ecosystem services and farmers cite rainfall as one of the park's most important benefits, but are also concerned with variable precipitation. Analysis of 30+ years of daily rainfall station data shows total rainfall has not changed significantly, but timing and transitions of seasons and intra-seasonal distribution are highly variable, which may contribute to changes in farming schedules and threaten food security. Further, the contrast between land use/cover change over 25 years around the park and the stability of forest within the park underscores the need to understand this landscape for future sustainability planning and the inevitable population growth outside its boundaries. Understanding climate change impacts and feedbacks to and from socio-ecological systems are important to address the dual challenge of biodiversity conservation and poverty alleviation.

  17. Understanding the geographic distribution of tropical cyclone formation for applications in climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tory, Kevin J.; Ye, H.; Dare, R. A.

    2018-04-01

    Projections of Tropical cyclone (TC) formation under future climate scenarios are dependent on climate model simulations. However, many models produce unrealistic geographical distributions of TC formation, especially in the north and south Atlantic and eastern south Pacific TC basins. In order to improve confidence in projections it is important to understand the reasons behind these model errors. However, considerable effort is required to analyse the many models used in projection studies. To address this problem, a novel diagnostic is developed that provides compelling insight into why TCs form where they do, using a few summary diagrams. The diagnostic is developed after identifying a relationship between seasonal climatologies of atmospheric variables in 34 years of ECMWF reanalysis data, and TC detection distributions in the same data. Geographic boundaries of TC formation are constructed from four threshold quantities. TCs form where Emanuel's Maximum Potential Intensity, V_{{PI}}, exceeds 40 {ms}^{{ - 1}}, 700 hPa relative humidity, RH_{{700}}, exceeds 40%, and the magnitude of the difference in vector winds between 850 and 200 hPa, V_{{sh}}, is less than 20 {ms}^{{ - 1}}. The equatorial boundary is best defined by a composite quantity containing the ratio of absolute vorticity (η ) to the meridional gradient of absolute vorticity (β ^{*}), rather than η alone. {β ^*} is also identified as a potentially important ingredient for TC genesis indices. A comparison of detected Tropical Depression (TD) and Tropical Storm (TS) climatologies revealed TDs more readily intensify further to TS where {V_{PI}} is elevated and {V_{sh}} is relatively weak. The distributions of each threshold quantity identify the factors that favour and suppress TC formation throughout the tropics in the real world. This information can be used to understand why TC formation is poorly represented in some climate models, and shows potential for understanding anomalous TC formation

  18. Analysis of farm performance in Europe under different climate and management conditions to improve understanding of adaptive capacity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reidsma, P.; Ewert, F.; Oude Lansink, A.

    2007-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to improve understanding of the adaptive capacity of European agriculture to climate change. Extensive data on farm characteristics of individual farms from the Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) have been combined with climatic and socio-economic data to analyze the

  19. Thermally actuated linkage arrangement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anderson, P.M.

    1981-01-01

    A reusable thermally actuated linkage arrangement includes a first link member having a longitudinal bore therein adapted to receive at least a portion of a second link member therein, the first and second members being sized to effect an interference fit preventing relative movement there-between at a temperature below a predetermined temperature. The link members have different coefficients of thermal expansion so that when the linkage is selectively heated by heating element to a temperature above the predetermined temperature, relative longitudinal and/or rotational movement between the first and second link members is enabled. Two embodiments of a thermally activated linkage are disclosed which find particular application in actuators for a grapple head positioning arm in a nuclear reactor fuel handling mechanism to facilitate back-up safety retraction of the grapple head independently from the primary fuel handling mechanism drive system. (author)

  20. Understanding ENSO dynamics through the exploration of past climates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Phipps, Steven J; Brown, Jaclyn N

    2010-01-01

    The palaeoclimate record shows that significant changes in ENSO characteristics took place during the Holocene. Exploring these changes, using both data and models, provides a means of understanding ENSO dynamics. Previous modelling studies have suggested a mechanism whereby changes in the Earth's orbital geometry explain the strengthening of ENSO over the Holocene. Decreasing summer insolation over the Asian landmass resulted in a weakening of the Asian monsoon system. This led to a weakening of the easterly trade winds in the western Pacific, creating conditions more favourable for El Nino development. To explore this hypothesised forcing mechanism, we use a climate system model to conduct a suite of simulations of the climate of the past 8,000 years. In the early Holocene, we find that the Asian summer monsoon system is intensified, resulting in an amplification of the easterly trade winds in the western Pacific. The stronger trade winds represent a barrier to the eastward propagation of westerly wind bursts, therefore inhibiting the onset of El Nino events. The fundamental behaviour of ENSO remains unchanged, with the major change over the Holocene being the influence of the background state of the Pacific on the susceptibility of the ocean to the initiation of El Nino events.

  1. European monitoring systems and data for assessing environmental and climate impacts on human infectious diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nichols, Gordon L; Andersson, Yvonne; Lindgren, Elisabet; Devaux, Isabelle; Semenza, Jan C

    2014-04-09

    Surveillance is critical to understanding the epidemiology and control of infectious diseases. The growing concern over climate and other drivers that may increase infectious disease threats to future generations has stimulated a review of the surveillance systems and environmental data sources that might be used to assess future health impacts from climate change in Europe. We present an overview of organizations, agencies and institutions that are responsible for infectious disease surveillance in Europe. We describe the surveillance systems, tracking tools, communication channels, information exchange and outputs in light of environmental and climatic drivers of infectious diseases. We discuss environmental and climatic data sets that lend themselves to epidemiological analysis. Many of the environmental data sets have a relatively uniform quality across EU Member States because they are based on satellite measurements or EU funded FP6 or FP7 projects with full EU coverage. Case-reporting systems for surveillance of infectious diseases should include clear and consistent case definitions and reporting formats that are geo-located at an appropriate resolution. This will allow linkage to environmental, social and climatic sources that will enable risk assessments, future threat evaluations, outbreak management and interventions to reduce disease burden.

  2. Spatio-temporal variability of NDVI-precipitation over southernmost South America: possible linkages between climate signals and epidemics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tourre, Y M [METEO-France, Meteopole, 42 Avenue Coriolis, 31057 Toulouse Cedex 1 (France); Jarlan, L [Centre d' Etudes Spatiales de la Biosphere (CESBIO), 18 avenue Edouard Belin, F-31401 Toulouse Cedex 4 (France); Lacaux, J-P [Universite Paul Sabatier (UPS), Observatoire Midi Pyrenees (OMP), 12 Avenue Edouard Belin, 31400 Toulouse (France); Rotela, C H [Instituto de Altos Estudios Espaciales ' Mario Gulich' , Comision Nacional de Actividades Espaciales (CONAE), Universidad Nacional de Cordoba (Argentina); Lafaye, M [CNES, DSP/ARP/AV, 18 Avenue Edouard Belin, F-31401 Toulouse Cedex 4 (France)

    2008-10-15

    -frequency climate signals such as the quasi-biennial oscillation in northwest Argentina. The joint preliminary results (climate-environment-public health reports) presented here for the first time are meant: (1) to contribute to a better understanding of climate-environment-epidemics process-based and modeling studies and (2) to facilitate, in the long run, the implementation of local and regional health early warning systems (HEWS) over southernmost South America. The latter is becoming crucial with ever-increasing migration, urban sprawl (re-emergence of dengue fever epidemics since the late 1990s), all embedded in a climate change context.

  3. Spatio-temporal variability of NDVI-precipitation over southernmost South America: possible linkages between climate signals and epidemics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tourre, Y M [METEO-France, Meteopole, 42 Avenue Coriolis, 31057 Toulouse Cedex 1 (France); Jarlan, L [Centre d' Etudes Spatiales de la Biosphere (CESBIO), 18 avenue Edouard Belin, F-31401 Toulouse Cedex 4 (France); Lacaux, J-P [Universite Paul Sabatier (UPS), Observatoire Midi Pyrenees (OMP), 12 Avenue Edouard Belin, 31400 Toulouse (France); Rotela, C H [Instituto de Altos Estudios Espaciales ' Mario Gulich' , Comision Nacional de Actividades Espaciales (CONAE), Universidad Nacional de Cordoba (Argentina); Lafaye, M [CNES, DSP/ARP/AV, 18 Avenue Edouard Belin, F-31401 Toulouse Cedex 4 (France)

    2008-10-15

    quasi-biennial oscillation in northwest Argentina. The joint preliminary results (climate-environment-public health reports) presented here for the first time are meant: (1) to contribute to a better understanding of climate-environment-epidemics process-based and modeling studies and (2) to facilitate, in the long run, the implementation of local and regional health early warning systems (HEWS) over southernmost South America. The latter is becoming crucial with ever-increasing migration, urban sprawl (re-emergence of dengue fever epidemics since the late 1990s), all embedded in a climate change context.

  4. Spatio-temporal variability of NDVI-precipitation over southernmost South America: possible linkages between climate signals and epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tourre, Y. M.; Jarlan, L.; Lacaux, J.-P.; Rotela, C. H.; Lafaye, M.

    2008-10-01

    quasi-biennial oscillation in northwest Argentina. The joint preliminary results (climate-environment-public health reports) presented here for the first time are meant: (1) to contribute to a better understanding of climate-environment-epidemics process-based and modeling studies and (2) to facilitate, in the long run, the implementation of local and regional health early warning systems (HEWS) over southernmost South America. The latter is becoming crucial with ever-increasing migration, urban sprawl (re-emergence of dengue fever epidemics since the late 1990s), all embedded in a climate change context.

  5. Spatio-temporal variability of NDVI-precipitation over southernmost South America: possible linkages between climate signals and epidemics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tourre, Y M; Jarlan, L; Lacaux, J-P; Rotela, C H; Lafaye, M

    2008-01-01

    quasi-biennial oscillation in northwest Argentina. The joint preliminary results (climate-environment-public health reports) presented here for the first time are meant: (1) to contribute to a better understanding of climate-environment-epidemics process-based and modeling studies and (2) to facilitate, in the long run, the implementation of local and regional health early warning systems (HEWS) over southernmost South America. The latter is becoming crucial with ever-increasing migration, urban sprawl (re-emergence of dengue fever epidemics since the late 1990s), all embedded in a climate change context.

  6. Haplotyping, linkage mapping and expression analysis of barley genes regulated by terminal drought stress influencing seed quality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wobus Ulrich

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The increasingly narrow genetic background characteristic of modern crop germplasm presents a challenge for the breeding of cultivars that require adaptation to the anticipated change in climate. Thus, high priority research aims at the identification of relevant allelic variation present both in the crop itself as well as in its progenitors. This study is based on the characterization of genetic variation in barley, with a view to enhancing its response to terminal drought stress. Results The expression patterns of drought regulated genes were monitored during plant ontogeny, mapped and the location of these genes was incorporated into a comprehensive barley SNP linkage map. Haplotypes within a set of 17 starch biosynthesis/degradation genes were defined, and a particularly high level of haplotype variation was uncovered in the genes encoding sucrose synthase (types I and II and starch synthase. The ability of a panel of 50 barley accessions to maintain grain starch content under terminal drought conditions was explored. Conclusion The linkage/expression map is an informative resource in the context of characterizing the response of barley to drought stress. The high level of haplotype variation among starch biosynthesis/degradation genes in the progenitors of cultivated barley shows that domestication and breeding have greatly eroded their allelic diversity in current elite cultivars. Prospective association analysis based on core drought-regulated genes may simplify the process of identifying favourable alleles, and help to understand the genetic basis of the response to terminal drought.

  7. Linkage between forest-based mitigation and GHG markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loisel, C.

    2008-01-01

    According to the latest assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, deforestation and forest degradation contributed to 23% of global carbon dioxide emissions and 17% of global emissions of all greenhouse gases in 2004 (IPCC AR4 SPM, 2007). Despite significant uncertainties, these figures stress the relevance of addressing deforestation into the new global climate governance regime. Deforestation is primarily a concern for tropical regions nowadays and FAO's Forest resource assessments (2005) highlight significant national disparities as a consequence of history, soil and climate conditions and current policies and socio-economic conditions. The Stern Review (2006) pointed to deforestation abatement as a must-seize opportunity to cut global greenhouse emissions with good cost/efficiency and numerous co-benefits. Under the framework of the 2007 Bali Action Plan, the UNFCCC is now considering policy approaches to promote the reduction of emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, and also forest conservation, sustainable forest management and forestation ('REDD+'). At the same time, the European Union is engaged in a major review of its climate and energy legislation. The EU climate/energy package has entered into the final stages of negotiation and the outcome should provide funding for REDD+ actions on the long run through some sort of connection to carbon markets. These are moments of historic significance both for world forests and climate protection, but significant challenges remain. This workshop focuses on one of these challenges: while mechanisms are being designed to connect greenhouse gas emission trading schemes and REDD+ actions, we must ensure that they enable broad and far-reaching actions while safeguarding against various sorts of unintended consequences. This background paper intends to provide a rapid initial overview on three aspects of the linkage between forest-based mitigation and emission trading schemes: (i

  8. Adaptation by Stealth: Understanding climate information use across scales and decision spaces in water management in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirchhoff, C.; Vang Rasmussen, L.; Lemos, M. C.

    2016-12-01

    While there has been considerable focus on understanding how factors related to the creation of climate knowledge affect its uptake and use, less attention has been paid to the actors, decisions, and processes through which climate information supports, or fails to support, action. This is particularly the case concerning how different scales of decision-making influence information uptake. In this study, we seek to understand how water and resource managers' decision space influences climate information use in two Great Lakes watersheds. We find that despite the availability of tailored climate information, actual use of information in decision making remains low. Reasons include: a) lack of willingness to place climate on agendas because local managers perceive climate change as politically risky and a difficult and intangible problem; b) lack of formal mandate or authority at the city and county scale to translate climate information into on-the-ground action, c) problems with the information itself, and d) perceived lack of demand for climate information by those managers who have the mandate and authority (e.g. at the state level) to use (or help others use) climate information. Our findings suggest that 1) climate scientists and information brokers should produce information that meets a range of decision needs and reserve intensive tailoring efforts for decision makers who have authority and willingness to employ climate information, 2) without support from higher levels of decision-making (e.g. state) it is unlikely that climate information use for adaptation decisions will accelerate significantly in the next few years, and 3) the trend towards adopting more sustainability and resilience practices over climate-specific actions should be supported as an important component of the climate adaptation repertoire.

  9. An evaluation of a data linkage training workshop for research ethics committees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Kate M; Flack, Felicity S; Bear, Natasha L; Allen, Judy A

    2015-03-04

    In Australia research projects proposing the use of linked data require approval by a Human Research Ethics Committee (HREC). A sound evaluation of the ethical issues involved requires understanding of the basic mechanics of data linkage, the associated benefits and risks, and the legal context in which it occurs. The rapidly increasing number of research projects utilising linked data in Australia has led to an urgent need for enhanced capacity of HRECs to review research applications involving this emerging research methodology. The training described in this article was designed to respond to an identified need among the data linkage units in the Australian Population Health Research Network (PHRN) and HREC members in Australia. Five one-day face to face workshops were delivered in the study period to a total of 98 participants. Participants in the workshops represented all six categories of HREC membership composition listed in the National Health and Medical Research Centres' (NHMRC) National Statement on Ethical Conduct in Human Research. Participants were assessed at three time points, prior to the training (T1), immediately after the training (T2) and 8 to 17 months after the training (T3). Ninety participants completed the pre and post questionnaires; 58 of them completed the deferred questionnaire. Participants reported significant improvements in levels of knowledge, understanding and skills in each of the eight areas evaluated. The training was beneficial for those with prior experience in the area of ethics and data linkage as well as those with no prior exposure. Our preliminary work in this area demonstrates that the provision of intensive face to face ethics training in data linkage is feasible and has a significant impact on participant's confidence in reviewing HREC applications.

  10. Recent advances in understanding secondary organic aerosol: Implications for global climate forcing: Advances in Secondary Organic Aerosol

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shrivastava, Manish [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Cappa, Christopher D. [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Davis California USA; Fan, Jiwen [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Goldstein, Allen H. [Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Berkeley California USA; Guenther, Alex B. [Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine California USA; Jimenez, Jose L. [Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences and Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder Colorado USA; Kuang, Chongai [Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton New York USA; Laskin, Alexander [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Martin, Scot T. [School of Engineering and Applied Sciences and Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge Massachusetts USA; Ng, Nga Lee [School of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering and School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta Georgia USA; Petaja, Tuukka [Department of Physics, University of Helsinki, Helsinki Finland; Pierce, Jeffrey R. [Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins Colorado USA; Rasch, Philip J. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Roldin, Pontus [Department of Physics, Lund University, Lund Sweden; Seinfeld, John H. [Division of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena California USA; Shilling, John [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Smith, James N. [Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine California USA; Thornton, Joel A. [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle Washington USA; Volkamer, Rainer [Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences and Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder Colorado USA; Wang, Jian [Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton New York USA; Worsnop, Douglas R. [Aerodyne Research, Inc., Billerica Massachusetts USA; Zaveri, Rahul A. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Zelenyuk, Alla [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Zhang, Qi [Department of Environmental Toxicology, University of California, Davis California USA

    2017-06-01

    Anthropogenic emissions and land-use changes have modified atmospheric aerosol concentrations and size distributions over time. Understanding pre-industrial conditions and changes in organic aerosol due to anthropogenic activities is important because these features 1) influence estimates of aerosol radiative forcing and 2) can confound estimates of the historical response of climate to increases in greenhouse gases (e.g. the ‘climate sensitivity’). Secondary organic aerosol (SOA), formed in the atmosphere by oxidation of organic gases, represents a major fraction of global submicron-sized atmospheric organic aerosol. Over the past decade, significant advances in understanding SOA properties and formation mechanisms have occurred through a combination of laboratory and field measurements, yet current climate models typically do not comprehensively include all important SOA-relevant processes. Therefore, major gaps exist at present between current measurement-based knowledge on the one hand and model implementation of organic aerosols on the other. The critical review herein summarizes some of the important developments in understanding SOA formation that could potentially have large impacts on our understanding of aerosol radiative forcing and climate. We highlight the importance of some recently discovered processes and properties that influence the growth of SOA particles to sizes relevant for clouds and radiative forcing, including: formation of extremely low-volatility organics in the gas-phase; isoprene epoxydiols (IEPOX) multi-phase chemistry; particle-phase oligomerization; and physical properties such as viscosity. In addition, this review also highlights some of the important processes that involve interactions between natural biogenic emissions and anthropogenic emissions, such as the role of sulfate and oxides of nitrogen (NOx) on SOA formation from biogenic volatile organic compounds. Studies that relate the observed evolution of organic aerosol

  11. Hydropower plans in eastern and southern Africa increase risk of concurrent climate-related electricity supply disruption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conway, Declan; Dalin, Carole; Landman, Willem A.; Osborn, Timothy J.

    2017-12-01

    Hydropower comprises a significant and rapidly expanding proportion of electricity production in eastern and southern Africa. In both regions, hydropower is exposed to high levels of climate variability and regional climate linkages are strong, yet an understanding of spatial interdependences is lacking. Here we consider river basin configuration and define regions of coherent rainfall variability using cluster analysis to illustrate exposure to the risk of hydropower supply disruption of current (2015) and planned (2030) hydropower sites. Assuming completion of the dams planned, hydropower will become increasingly concentrated in the Nile (from 62% to 82% of total regional capacity) and Zambezi (from 73% to 85%) basins. By 2030, 70% and 59% of total hydropower capacity will be located in one cluster of rainfall variability in eastern and southern Africa, respectively, increasing the risk of concurrent climate-related electricity supply disruption in each region. Linking of nascent regional electricity sharing mechanisms could mitigate intraregional risk, although these mechanisms face considerable political and infrastructural challenges.

  12. Understanding of Grassland Ecosystems under Climate Change and Economic Development Pressures in the Mongolia Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, J.; Chen, J.; Shan, P.; Pan, X.; Wei, Y.; Wang, M.; Xin, X.

    2011-12-01

    The land use and land cover change, especially in the form of grassland degradation, in the Mongolian Plateau, exhibited a unique spatio-temporal pattern that is a characteristic of a mixed stress from economic development and climate change of the region. The social dimension of the region played a key role in shaping the landscape and land use change, including the cultural clashes with economic development, conflicts between indigenous people and business ventures, and exogenous international influences. Various research projects have been conducted in the region to focus on physical degradation of grasslands and/or on economic development but there is a lack of understanding how the social and economic dimensions interact with grassland ecosystems and changes. In this talk, a synthesis report was made based on the most recent workshop held in Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, of China, that specifically focused on climate change and grassland ecosystems. The report analyzed the degree of grassland degradation, its climate and social drivers, and coupling nature of economic development and conservation of traditional grassland values. The goal is to fully understand the socio-ecological-economic interactions that together shape the trajectory of the grassland ecosystems in the Mongolia Plateau.

  13. Understanding Climate Variability of Urban Ecosystems Through the Lens of Citizen Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ripplinger, J.; Jenerette, D.; Wang, J.; Chandler, M.; Ge, C.; Koutzoukis, S.

    2017-12-01

    The Los Angeles megacity is vulnerable to climate warming - a process that locally exacerbates the urban heat island effect as it intensifies with size and density of the built-up area. We know that large-scale drivers play a role, but in order to understand local-scale climate variation, more research is needed on the biophysical and sociocultural processes driving the urban climate system. In this study, we work with citizen scientists to deploy a high-density network of microsensors across a climate gradient to characterize geographic variation in neighborhood meso- and micro-climates. This research asks: How do urbanization, global climate, and vegetation interact across multiple scales to affect local-scale experiences of temperature? Additionally, citizen scientist-led efforts generated research questions focused on examining microclimatic differences among yard groundcover types (rock mulch vs. lawn vs. artificial turf) and also on variation in temperature related to tree cover. Combining sensor measurements with Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) spatial models and satellite-based temperature, we estimate spatially-explicit maps of land surface temperature and air temperature to illustrate the substantial difference between surface and air urban heat island intensities and the variable degree of coupling between land surface and air temperature in urban areas. Our results show a strong coupling between air temperature variation and landcover for neighborhoods, with significant detectable signatures from tree cover and impervious surface. Temperature covaried most strongly with urbanization intensity at nighttime during peak summer season, when daily mean air temperature ranged from 12.8C to 30.4C across all groundcover types. The combined effects of neighborhood geography and vegetation determine where and how temperature and tree canopy vary within a city. This citizen science-enabled research shows how large-scale climate drivers and urbanization

  14. The Promise and Limitations of Using Analogies to Improve Decision-Relevant Understanding of Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raimi, Kaitlin T; Stern, Paul C; Maki, Alexander

    2017-01-01

    To make informed choices about how to address climate change, members of the public must develop ways to consider established facts of climate science and the uncertainties about its future trajectories, in addition to the risks attendant to various responses, including non-response, to climate change. One method suggested for educating the public about these issues is the use of simple mental models, or analogies comparing climate change to familiar domains such as medical decision making, disaster preparedness, or courtroom trials. Two studies were conducted using online participants in the U.S.A. to test the use of analogies to highlight seven key decision-relevant elements of climate change, including uncertainties about when and where serious damage may occur, its unprecedented and progressive nature, and tradeoffs in limiting climate change. An internal meta-analysis was then conducted to estimate overall effect sizes across the two studies. Analogies were not found to inform knowledge about climate literacy facts. However, results suggested that people found the medical analogy helpful and that it led people-especially political conservatives-to better recognize several decision-relevant attributes of climate change. These effects were weak, perhaps reflecting a well-documented and overwhelming effect of political ideology on climate change communication and education efforts in the U.S.A. The potential of analogies and similar education tools to improve understanding and communication in a polarized political environment are discussed.

  15. The Promise and Limitations of Using Analogies to Improve Decision-Relevant Understanding of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stern, Paul C.; Maki, Alexander

    2017-01-01

    To make informed choices about how to address climate change, members of the public must develop ways to consider established facts of climate science and the uncertainties about its future trajectories, in addition to the risks attendant to various responses, including non-response, to climate change. One method suggested for educating the public about these issues is the use of simple mental models, or analogies comparing climate change to familiar domains such as medical decision making, disaster preparedness, or courtroom trials. Two studies were conducted using online participants in the U.S.A. to test the use of analogies to highlight seven key decision-relevant elements of climate change, including uncertainties about when and where serious damage may occur, its unprecedented and progressive nature, and tradeoffs in limiting climate change. An internal meta-analysis was then conducted to estimate overall effect sizes across the two studies. Analogies were not found to inform knowledge about climate literacy facts. However, results suggested that people found the medical analogy helpful and that it led people—especially political conservatives—to better recognize several decision-relevant attributes of climate change. These effects were weak, perhaps reflecting a well-documented and overwhelming effect of political ideology on climate change communication and education efforts in the U.S.A. The potential of analogies and similar education tools to improve understanding and communication in a polarized political environment are discussed. PMID:28135337

  16. The Promise and Limitations of Using Analogies to Improve Decision-Relevant Understanding of Climate Change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaitlin T Raimi

    Full Text Available To make informed choices about how to address climate change, members of the public must develop ways to consider established facts of climate science and the uncertainties about its future trajectories, in addition to the risks attendant to various responses, including non-response, to climate change. One method suggested for educating the public about these issues is the use of simple mental models, or analogies comparing climate change to familiar domains such as medical decision making, disaster preparedness, or courtroom trials. Two studies were conducted using online participants in the U.S.A. to test the use of analogies to highlight seven key decision-relevant elements of climate change, including uncertainties about when and where serious damage may occur, its unprecedented and progressive nature, and tradeoffs in limiting climate change. An internal meta-analysis was then conducted to estimate overall effect sizes across the two studies. Analogies were not found to inform knowledge about climate literacy facts. However, results suggested that people found the medical analogy helpful and that it led people-especially political conservatives-to better recognize several decision-relevant attributes of climate change. These effects were weak, perhaps reflecting a well-documented and overwhelming effect of political ideology on climate change communication and education efforts in the U.S.A. The potential of analogies and similar education tools to improve understanding and communication in a polarized political environment are discussed.

  17. The understanding of world climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petit, M.

    2008-01-01

    After having recalled that the problem of global warming in relationship with human activities has been studied since the end of the nineteenth century and since then by different scientific programs, the author describes how the IPCC's or Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's report is produced. He briefly comments how Earth's temperature is determined and the various natural parameters which influence the climate on Earth. He recalls how the IPCC showed the actual influence of human activities, and which changes have actually been observed

  18. Learning network theory : its contribution to our understanding of work-based learning projects and learning climate

    OpenAIRE

    Poell, R.F.; Moorsel, M.A.A.H. van

    1996-01-01

    This paper discusses the relevance of Van der Krogt's learning network theory (1995) for our understanding of the concepts of work-related learning projects and learning climate in organisations. The main assumptions of the learning network theory are presented and transferred to the level of learning groups in organisations. Four theoretical types of learning projects are distinguished. Four different approaches to the learning climate of work groups are compared to the approach offered by t...

  19. Climate Informatics: Accelerating Discovering in Climate Science with Machine Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monteleoni, Claire; Schmidt, Gavin A.; McQuade, Scott

    2014-01-01

    The goal of climate informatics, an emerging discipline, is to inspire collaboration between climate scientists and data scientists, in order to develop tools to analyze complex and ever-growing amounts of observed and simulated climate data, and thereby bridge the gap between data and understanding. Here, recent climate informatics work is presented, along with details of some of the field's remaining challenges. Given the impact of climate change, understanding the climate system is an international priority. The goal of climate informatics is to inspire collaboration between climate scientists and data scientists, in order to develop tools to analyze complex and ever-growing amounts of observed and simulated climate data, and thereby bridge the gap between data and understanding. Here, recent climate informatics work is presented, along with details of some of the remaining challenges.

  20. ECOTOXICOGENOMICS: LINKAGES BETWEEN EXPOSURE AND EFFECTS IN ASSESSING RISKS OF AQUATIC CONTAMINANTS TO FISH

    Science.gov (United States)

    Understanding the biological effects of exposures to chemicals in the environment relies on classical and emerging technologies in the areas of genomics, proteomics, and metabonomics. Linkages between the historical and newer toxicological tools are currently being developed in o...

  1. Multiobjective optimization of a steering linkage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sleesonsom, S.; Bureerat, S. [Sustainable and Infrastructure Research and Development Center, Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Khon Kaen University, Khon Kaen (Thailand)

    2016-08-15

    In this paper, multi-objective optimization of a rack-and-pinion steering linkage is proposed. This steering linkage is a common mechanism used in small cars with three advantages as it is simple to construct, economical to manufacture, and compact and easy to operate. In the previous works, many researchers tried to minimize a steering error but minimization of a turning radius is somewhat ignored. As a result, a multi-objective optimization problem is assigned to simultaneously minimize a steering error and a turning radius. The design variables are linkage dimensions. The design problem is solved by the hybrid of multi-objective population-based incremental learning and differential evolution with various constraint handling schemes. The new design strategy leads to effective design of rack-and-pinion steering linkages satisfying both steering error and turning radius criteria.

  2. Multiobjective optimization of a steering linkage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sleesonsom, S.; Bureerat, S.

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, multi-objective optimization of a rack-and-pinion steering linkage is proposed. This steering linkage is a common mechanism used in small cars with three advantages as it is simple to construct, economical to manufacture, and compact and easy to operate. In the previous works, many researchers tried to minimize a steering error but minimization of a turning radius is somewhat ignored. As a result, a multi-objective optimization problem is assigned to simultaneously minimize a steering error and a turning radius. The design variables are linkage dimensions. The design problem is solved by the hybrid of multi-objective population-based incremental learning and differential evolution with various constraint handling schemes. The new design strategy leads to effective design of rack-and-pinion steering linkages satisfying both steering error and turning radius criteria

  3. Quantification of Linkages between Large-Scale Climate Patterns and Annual Precipitation for the Colorado River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalra, A.; Ahmad, S.

    2010-12-01

    Precipitation is regarded as one of the key variables driving various hydrologic processes and the future precipitation information can be useful to better understand the long-term climate dynamics. In this paper, a simple, robust, and parsimonious precipitation forecast model, Support Vector Machine (SVM) is proposed which uses large-scale climate information and predict annual precipitation 1-year in advance. SVM’s are a novel class of neural networks (NNs) which are based on the statistical learning theory. The SVM’s has three main advantages over the traditional NNs: 1) better generalization ability, 2) the architecture and weights of SVM’s are guaranteed to be unique and globally optimum, and 3) SVM’s are trained more rapidly than the corresponding NN. With these advantages, an application of SVM incorporating large-scale climate information is developed and applied to seventeen climate divisions encompassing the Colorado River Basin in the western United States. Annual oceanic-atmospheric indices, comprising of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and El Nino-Southern Oscillations (ENSO) for a period of 1900-2007 are used to generate annual precipitation estimates with 1-year lead time. The results from the present study indicate that long-term precipitation predictions for the Upper Colorado River Basin can be successfully obtained using a combination of NAO and ENSO indices whereas coupling PDO and AMO results in improved precipitation predictions for the Lower Colorado River Basin. Precipitation predictions from the SVM model are found to be better when compared with the predictions obtained from feed-forward back propagation Artificial Neural Network and Multivariate Linear Regression models. The overall results of this study revealed that the annual precipitation of the Colorado River Basin was significantly influenced by oceanic-atmospheric oscillations and the proposed SVM

  4. Interactions between chemical and climate stressors: A role for mechanistic toxicology in assessing climate change risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hooper, Michael J.; Ankley, Gerald T.; Cristol, Daniel A.; Maryoung, Lindley A.; Noyes, Pamela D.; Pinkerton, Kent E.

    2013-01-01

    Incorporation of global climate change (GCC) effects into assessments of chemical risk and injury requires integrated examinations of chemical and nonchemical stressors. Environmental variables altered by GCC (temperature, precipitation, salinity, pH) can influence the toxicokinetics of chemical absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion as well as toxicodynamic interactions between chemicals and target molecules. In addition, GCC challenges processes critical for coping with the external environment (water balance, thermoregulation, nutrition, and the immune, endocrine, and neurological systems), leaving organisms sensitive to even slight perturbations by chemicals when pushed to the limits of their physiological tolerance range. In simplest terms, GCC can make organisms more sensitive to chemical stressors, while alternatively, exposure to chemicals can make organisms more sensitive to GCC stressors. One challenge is to identify potential interactions between nonchemical and chemical stressors affecting key physiological processes in an organism. We employed adverse outcome pathways, constructs depicting linkages between mechanism-based molecular initiating events and impacts on individuals or populations, to assess how chemical- and climate-specific variables interact to lead to adverse outcomes. Case examples are presented for prospective scenarios, hypothesizing potential chemical–GCC interactions, and retrospective scenarios, proposing mechanisms for demonstrated chemical–climate interactions in natural populations. Understanding GCC interactions along adverse outcome pathways facilitates extrapolation between species or other levels of organization, development of hypotheses and focal areas for further research, and improved inputs for risk and resource injury assessments.

  5. A consensus linkage map of the grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella based on microsatellites and SNPs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Jiale

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella belongs to the family Cyprinidae which includes more than 2000 fish species. It is one of the most important freshwater food fish species in world aquaculture. A linkage map is an essential framework for mapping traits of interest and is often the first step towards understanding genome evolution. The aim of this study is to construct a first generation genetic map of grass carp using microsatellites and SNPs to generate a new resource for mapping QTL for economically important traits and to conduct a comparative mapping analysis to shed new insights into the evolution of fish genomes. Results We constructed a first generation linkage map of grass carp with a mapping panel containing two F1 families including 192 progenies. Sixteen SNPs in genes and 263 microsatellite markers were mapped to twenty-four linkage groups (LGs. The number of LGs was corresponding to the haploid chromosome number of grass carp. The sex-specific map was 1149.4 and 888.8 cM long in females and males respectively whereas the sex-averaged map spanned 1176.1 cM. The average resolution of the map was 4.2 cM/locus. BLAST searches of sequences of mapped markers of grass carp against the whole genome sequence of zebrafish revealed substantial macrosynteny relationship and extensive colinearity of markers between grass carp and zebrafish. Conclusions The linkage map of grass carp presented here is the first linkage map of a food fish species based on co-dominant markers in the family Cyprinidae. This map provides a valuable resource for mapping phenotypic variations and serves as a reference to approach comparative genomics and understand the evolution of fish genomes and could be complementary to grass carp genome sequencing project.

  6. Understanding resilience of pastoralists to climate change and variability in the Southern Afar Region, Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muluken Mekuyie

    Full Text Available Change in climate and climate extremes are acknowledged as a vital challenge to pastoral production systems. Alternative systems that are accessible to a household in order to make a living could determine the household’s resilience at a given point in time. This study was conducted in the Southern Afar region in Ethiopia to understand the resilience of pastoralists to climate change and variability. A household questionnaire survey and focus group discussions were employed to collect primary data at household level. A total of 250 pastoral households were sampled using stratified random sampling. The data obtained were analysed using descriptive statistics and principal component analysis. The resilience of households to climate shocks and stresses was determined using a two-step modelling approach by clustering households into livelihood groups, gender and districts. The results indicated that agro-pastoral households were more resilient than pastoralists to climate-induced shock. Furthermore, households in the Gewane district were more resilient than those in the Amibara district. Female-headed households were less resilient than male-headed households. Enhancing livestock assets and productivity, social safety nets, access to market, credit, extension services and education, improving irrigation crop farming, and providing farm inputs significantly enhanced the resilience of pastoralists to climate change and variability. Keywords: Asset, Livelihood, Climate shock, Pastoralist, Resilience

  7. Understanding school climate, aggression, peer victimization, and bully perpetration: contemporary science, practice, and policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Espelage, Dorothy L; Low, Sabina K; Jimerson, Shane R

    2014-09-01

    Existing scholarship suggests that classroom practices, teacher attitudes, and the broader school environment play a critical role in understanding the rates of student reports of aggression, bullying, and victimization as well as correlated behaviors. A more accurate understanding of the nature, origins, maintenance, and prevalence of bullying and other aggressive behavior requires consideration of the broader social ecology of the school community. However, studies to date have predominantly been cross-sectional in nature, or have failed to reflect the social-ecological framework in their measurement or analytic approach. Thus, there have been limited efforts to parse out the relative contribution of student, classroom, and organizational-level factors. This special topic section emphasizes a departure from a focus on student attitudes and behaviors, to a social-contextual approach that appreciates how much features of the school environment can mitigate or perpetuate aggression. This collection of articles reflects innovative and rigorous approaches to further our understanding of climate, and has implications for theory, measurement, prevention, and practice. These studies highlight the influence of school climate on mental health, academic achievement, and problem behavior, and will hopefully stimulate interest in and further scholarship on this important topic. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

  8. The importance of precessional signals in the tropical climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clement, A C [Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL 33149 (United States); Hall, A [UCLA, 7955 Math Sciences Building, 405 Hilgard Ave., Box 951565, Los Angeles, CA 90095 (United States); Broccoli, A J [Rutgers University, 14 College Farm Road, New Brunswick, NJ 08901-8551 (United States)

    2004-04-01

    Past research on the climate response to orbital forcing has emphasized the glacial-interglacial variations in global ice volume, global-mean temperature, and the global hydrologic cycle. This emphasis may be inappropriate in the tropics, where the response to precessional forcing is likely to be somewhat independent of the glacial-interglacial variations, particularly in variables relating to the hydrologic cycle. To illustrate this point, we use an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a slab ocean model, performing experiments that quantify the tropical climate's response to (1) opposite phases of precessional forcing, and (2) Last Glacial Maximum boundary conditions. While the glacially-forced tropical temperature changes are typically more than an order of magnitude larger than those arising from precessional forcing, the hydrologic signals stemming from the two forcings are comparable in magnitude. The mechanisms behind these signals are investigated and shown to be quite distinct for the precessional and glacial forcing. Because of strong dynamical linkages in the tropics, the model results illustrate the impossibility of predicting the local hydrologic response to external forcing without understanding the response at much larger spatial scales. Examples from the paleoclimate record are presented as additional evidence for the importance of precessional signals in past variations of the tropical climate. (orig.)

  9. Initial Reactivity of Linkages and Monomer Rings in Lignin Pyrolysis Revealed by ReaxFF Molecular Dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Tingting; Li, Xiaoxia; Guo, Li

    2017-10-24

    The initial conversion pathways of linkages and their linked monomer units in lignin pyrolysis were investigated comprehensively by ReaxFF MD simulations facilitated by the unique VARxMD for reaction analysis. The simulated molecular model contains 15 920 atoms and was constructed on the basis of Adler's softwood lignin model. The simulations uncover the initial conversion ratio of various linkages and their linked aryl monomers. For linkages and their linked monomer aryl rings of α-O-4, β-O-4 and α-O-4 & β-5, the C α /C β ether bond cracking dominates the initial pathway accounting for at least up to 80% of their consumption. For the linkage of β-β & γ-O-α, both the C α -O ether bond cracking and its linked monomer aryl ring opening are equally important. Ring-opening reactions dominate the initial consumption of other 4-O-5, 5-5, β-1, β-2, and β-5 linkages and their linked monomers. The ether bond cracking of C α -O and C β -O occurs at low temperature, and the aryl ring-opening reactions take place at relatively high temperature. The important intermediates leading to the stable aryl ring opening are the phenoxy radicals, the bridged five-membered and three-membered rings and the bridged six-membered and three-membered rings. In addition, the reactivity of a linkage and its monomer aryl ring may be affected by other linkages. The ether bond cracking of α-O-4 and β-O-4 linkages can activate its neighboring linkage or monomer ring through the formed phenoxy radicals as intermediates. The important intermediates revealed in this article should be of help in deepening the understanding of the controlling mechanism for producing aromatic chemicals from lignin pyrolysis.

  10. Integrating Climate and Ecosystem-Response Sciences in Temperate Western North American Mountains: The CIRMOUNT Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millar, C. I.; Fagre, D. B.

    2004-12-01

    Mountain regions are uniquely sensitive to changes in climate, vulnerable to climate effects on biotic and physical factors of intense social concern, and serve as critical early-warning systems of climate impacts. Escalating demands on western North American (WNA) mountain ecosystems increasingly stress both natural resources and rural community capacities; changes in mountain systems cascade to issues of national concern. Although WNA has long been a focus for climate- and climate-related environmental research, these efforts remain disciplinary and poorly integrated, hindering interpretation into policy and management. Knowledge is further hampered by lack of standardized climate monitoring stations at high-elevations in WNA. An initiative is emerging as the Consortium for Integrated Climate Research in Western Mountains (CIRMOUNT) whose primary goal is to improve knowledge of high-elevation climate systems and to better integrate physical, ecological, and social sciences relevant to climate change, ecosystem response, and natural-resource policy in WNA. CIRMOUNT seeks to focus research on climate variability and ecosystem response (progress in understanding synoptic scale processes) that improves interpretation of linkages between ecosystem functions and human processing (progress in understanding human-environment integration), which in turn would yield applicable information and understanding on key societal issues such as mountains as water towers, biodiversity, carbon forest sinks, and wildland hazards such as fire and forest dieback (progress in understanding ecosystem services and key thresholds). Achieving such integration depends first on implementing a network of high-elevation climate-monitoring stations, and linking these with integrated ecosystem-response studies. Achievements since 2003 include convening the 2004 Mountain Climate Sciences Symposium (1, 2) and several special sessions at technical conferences; initiating a biennial mountain climate

  11. Some methods for blindfolded record linkage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christen Peter

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The linkage of records which refer to the same entity in separate data collections is a common requirement in public health and biomedical research. Traditionally, record linkage techniques have required that all the identifying data in which links are sought be revealed to at least one party, often a third party. This necessarily invades personal privacy and requires complete trust in the intentions of that party and their ability to maintain security and confidentiality. Dusserre, Quantin, Bouzelat and colleagues have demonstrated that it is possible to use secure one-way hash transformations to carry out follow-up epidemiological studies without any party having to reveal identifying information about any of the subjects – a technique which we refer to as "blindfolded record linkage". A limitation of their method is that only exact comparisons of values are possible, although phonetic encoding of names and other strings can be used to allow for some types of typographical variation and data errors. Methods A method is described which permits the calculation of a general similarity measure, the n-gram score, without having to reveal the data being compared, albeit at some cost in computation and data communication. This method can be combined with public key cryptography and automatic estimation of linkage model parameters to create an overall system for blindfolded record linkage. Results The system described offers good protection against misdeeds or security failures by any one party, but remains vulnerable to collusion between or simultaneous compromise of two or more parties involved in the linkage operation. In order to reduce the likelihood of this, the use of last-minute allocation of tasks to substitutable servers is proposed. Proof-of-concept computer programmes written in the Python programming language are provided to illustrate the similarity comparison protocol. Conclusion Although the protocols described in

  12. Proceedings of the upwind downwind 2008 conference : climate change and healthy cities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    This conference provided a forum to examine the effects of poor air quality on public health. It was attended by urban planners, public health officials, policy makers, environmental managers, non-government organizations, academics, industry, community groups and politicians. The first session of the conference focused on research in cardiovascular and respiratory health impacts, linkages and actions to improve air quality and address climate change. The session on urban and transportation planning focused on how the implementation of transportation systems and land use patterns through urban design can impact health and air quality. It examined green buildings, standards and their linkages to improving local air quality. The session on climate change and local partnerships focused on local actions that cities, organizations and individuals can take to improve air quality and address climate change. One of the 16 presentations featured at this conference has been catalogued separately for inclusion in this database. refs., tabs., figs

  13. Mainstreaming Climate Change: Recent and Ongoing Efforts to Understand, Improve, and Expand Consideration of Climate Change in Federal Water Resources Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferguson, I. M.; McGuire, M.; Broman, D.; Gangopadhyay, S.

    2017-12-01

    The Bureau of Reclamation is a Federal agency tasked with developing and managing water supply and hydropower projects in the Western U.S. Climate and hydrologic variability and change significantly impact management actions and outcomes across Reclamation's programs and initiatives, including water resource planning and operations, infrastructure design and maintenance, hydropower generation, and ecosystem restoration, among others. Planning, design, and implementation of these programs therefore requires consideration of future climate and hydrologic conditions will impact program objectives. Over the past decade, Reclamation and other Federal agencies have adopted new guidelines, directives, and mandates that require consideration of climate change in water resources planning and decision making. Meanwhile, the scientific community has developed a large number of climate projections, along with an array of models, methods, and tools to facilitate consideration of climate projections in planning and decision making. However, water resources engineers, planners, and decision makers continue to face challenges regarding how best to use the available data and tools to support major decisions, including decisions regarding infrastructure investments and long-term operating criteria. This presentation will discuss recent and ongoing research towards understanding, improving, and expanding consideration of climate projections and related uncertainties in Federal water resources planning and decision making. These research efforts address a variety of challenges, including: How to choose between available climate projection datasets and related methods, models, and tools—many of which are considered experimental or research tools? How to select an appropriate decision framework when design or operating alternatives may differ between climate scenarios? How to effectively communicate results of a climate impacts analysis to decision makers? And, how to improve

  14. Forests under climate change and air pollution: Gaps in understanding and future directions for research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Matyssek, R.; Wieser, G.; Calfapietra, C.

    2012-01-01

    Forests in Europe face significant changes in climate, which in interaction with air quality changes, may significantly affect forest productivity, stand composition and carbon sequestration in both vegetation and soils. Identified knowledge gaps and research needs include: (i) interaction between...... changes in air quality (trace gas concentrations), climate and other site factors on forest ecosystem response, (ii) significance of biotic processes in system response, (iii) tools for mechanistic and diagnostic understanding and upscaling, and (iv) the need for unifying modelling and empirical research...... for synthesis. This position paper highlights the above focuses, including the global dimension of air pollution as part of climate change and the need for knowledge transfer to enable reliable risk assessment. A new type of research site in forest ecosystems (“supersites”) will be conducive to addressing...

  15. UNDERSTANDING FARMERS’ NEED TO CLIMATE INFORMATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rizaldi Boer

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Availability of good skill seasonal climate forecast will be very useful for farmers to assist them to tailor their cropping strategies to the forecast so that the climate risks can be minimized or avoided. This study aimed to identify type of relevant climate forecast information for potato and chili farmers of Pengalengan. The study was done through interview with 60 farmers. The study reveals that the most important climate information required by farmers is the onset of rainy season and then followed by amount of rainfall, and number of rainy days during the seasons. About 75% of farmers said that they need the information at least one month before planting to enable them to prepare better planting strategy. For potato farmers, they expect that they can get information on the onset of rainy season around August. However, the increase in farmers’ capacity to use seasonal climate forecast should be followed by supporting policies or regulations or resources to maximize the benefit of using the forecast, such as price policy, and good storage facility to accommodate surplus production resulting from changing planting strategy.   Ketersediaan prakiraan musim dengan skill tinggi sangat diperlukan bagi petani untuk menyesuaikan strategi budidaya dengan informasi prakiraan tersebut sehingga risiko iklim dapat diminimumkan atau dihindari. Kajian ini mengidentifikasi informasi prakiraan yang relevan bagi petani kentang dan cabe Pengalengan, Bandung-Jawa Barat dengan menginterview 60 petani. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa informasi iklim yang dianggap paling penting bagi petani ialah awal masuk musim hujan dan kemudian diikuti oleh banyak hari hujan dalam musim. Sekitar 75% petani menyatakan bahwa mereka membutuhkan informasi tersebut minimal satu bulan sebelum tanam supaya mereka dapat mengatus strategi budidaya dengan baik. Untuk petani kentang, mereka mengharapkan dapat memperoleh informasi prakiraan awal musim hujan sekitar Agustus. Namun

  16. Understanding Perceptions of Climate Change, Priorities, and Decision-Making among Municipalities in Lima, Peru to Better Inform Adaptation and Mitigation Planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siña, Mariella; Wood, Rachel C; Saldarriaga, Enrique; Lawler, Joshua; Zunt, Joseph; Garcia, Patricia; Cárcamo, César

    2016-01-01

    Climate change poses multiple risks to the population of Lima, the largest city and capital of Peru, located on the Pacific coast in a desert ecosystem. These risks include increased water scarcity, increased heat, and the introduction and emergence of vector-borne and other climate sensitive diseases. To respond to these threats, it is necessary for the government, at every level, to adopt more mitigation and adaptation strategies. Here, focus groups were conducted with representatives from five Lima municipalities to determine priorities, perception of climate change, and decision-making processes for implementing projects within each municipality. These factors can affect the ability and desire of a community to implement climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. The results show that climate change and other environmental factors are of relatively low priority, whereas public safety and water and sanitation services are of highest concern. Perhaps most importantly, climate change is not well understood among the municipalities. Participants had trouble distinguishing climate change from other environmental issues and did not fully understand its causes and effects. Greater understanding of what climate change is and why it is important is necessary for it to become a priority for the municipalities. Different aspects of increased climate change awareness seem to be connected to having experienced extreme weather events, whether related or not to climate change, and to higher socioeconomic status.

  17. Integrated climate change risk assessment:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2017-01-01

    Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models...... to address the complex linkages between the different kinds of data required in assessing climate adaptation. It emphasizes that the availability of spatially explicit data can reduce the overall uncertainty of the risk assessment and assist in identifying key vulnerable assets. The usefulness...... of such a framework is demonstrated by means of a risk assessment of flooding from extreme precipitation for the city of Odense, Denmark. A sensitivity analysis shows how the presence of particularly important assets, such as cultural and historical heritage, may be addressed in assessing such risks. The output...

  18. Towards a Better Understanding of Climate Change Negotiations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bryndís Arndal Woods

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The bulk of environmental economics literature applies non-cooperative game theory to examine the stability of International Environmental Agreements. Recently, a new trend has emerged in the literature whereby scholars use modified economic approaches to better account for ‘reality’ as such. This article builds upon the work of Hugh Ward, Frank Grundig and Ethan Zorick who conducted a mixed-method analysis to create a model of international climate change negotiations which could explain why policy change has been minimal in this issue area. The purpose of this article is to further develop the mixed-method approach in order to gain a better understanding of international climate change negotiations. Using the progression of the 2011 Durban negotiation session as our raw data, we demonstrate the usefulness of conducting qualitative and quantitative analyses simultaneously to best represent reality. Content and discourse analyses are applied to the Durban negotiations to identify the properties of the underlying game. The results are applied to the future of the negotiations in order to identify trends which need to be addressed to reach more progressive outcomes in the future. The main results of the qualitative analyses of the Durban negotiations included that players had modest expectations at the outset of the negotiations, which influenced the issues they addressed. The quantitative analysis demonstrated that players achieved a high degree of success at Durban; all players achieved their desired outcomes on at least half of the issues they addressed. Finally, the mixed-method approach identified important trends from the negotiations, most importantly the cracks exposed within the BASIC bloc and the role of the ‘middle ground’ alliance.

  19. Recent Advances in Understanding the Effects of Climate Change on Coral Reefs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew S. Hoey

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is one of the greatest threats to the persistence of coral reefs. Sustained and ongoing increases in ocean temperatures and acidification are altering the structure and function of reefs globally. Here, we summarise recent advances in our understanding of the effects of climate change on scleractinian corals and reef fish. Although there is considerable among-species variability in responses to increasing temperature and seawater chemistry, changing temperature regimes are likely to have the greatest influence on the structure of coral and fish assemblages, at least over short–medium timeframes. Recent evidence of increases in coral bleaching thresholds, local genetic adaptation and inheritance of heat tolerance suggest that coral populations may have some capacity to respond to warming, although the extent to which these changes can keep pace with changing environmental conditions is unknown. For coral reef fishes, current evidence indicates increasing seawater temperature will be a major determinant of future assemblages, through both habitat degradation and direct effects on physiology and behaviour. The effects of climate change are, however, being compounded by a range of anthropogenic disturbances, which may undermine the capacity of coral reef organisms to acclimate and/or adapt to specific changes in environmental conditions.

  20. Understanding the Changes in Global Crop Yields Through Changes in Climate and Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Najafi, Ehsan; Devineni, Naresh; Khanbilvardi, Reza M.; Kogan, Felix

    2018-03-01

    During the last few decades, the global agricultural production has risen and technology enhancement is still contributing to yield growth. However, population growth, water crisis, deforestation, and climate change threaten the global food security. An understanding of the variables that caused past changes in crop yields can help improve future crop prediction models. In this article, we present a comprehensive global analysis of the changes in the crop yields and how they relate to different large-scale and regional climate variables, climate change variables and technology in a unified framework. A new multilevel model for yield prediction at the country level is developed and demonstrated. The structural relationships between average yield and climate attributes as well as trends are estimated simultaneously. All countries are modeled in a single multilevel model with partial pooling to automatically group and reduce estimation uncertainties. El Niño-southern oscillation (ENSO), Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), geopotential height anomalies (GPH), historical carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and country-based time series of GDP per capita as an approximation of technology measurement are used as predictors to estimate annual agricultural crop yields for each country from 1961 to 2013. Results indicate that these variables can explain the variability in historical crop yields for most of the countries and the model performs well under out-of-sample verifications. While some countries were not generally affected by climatic factors, PDSI and GPH acted both positively and negatively in different regions for crop yields in many countries.

  1. Human-Induced Climate Variations Linked to Urbanization: From Observations to Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepherd, J. Marshall; Jin, Menglin

    2004-01-01

    The goal of this session is to bring together scientists from interdisciplinary backgrounds to discuss the data, scientific approaches and recent results focusing on the impact of urbanization on the climate. The discussion will highlight current observational and modeling capabilities being employed for investigating the urban environment and its linkage to the change in the Earth's climate system. The goal of the session is to identify our current stand and the future direction on the topic. Urbanization is one of the extreme cases of land use change. Most of population of the world has moved to urban areas. By 1995, more than 70% of population of North America and Europe were living in cities. By 2025, the United Nations estimates that 60% of the worlds population will live in cities. Although currently only 1.2% of the land is urban, better understanding of how the atmosphere-ocean-land-biosphere components interact as a coupled system and the influence of human activities on this system is critical. Our understanding of urbanization effect is incomplete, partly because human activities induce new changes on climate in addition to the original natural variations, and partly because previously few data available for study urban effect globally. Urban construction changes surface roughness, albedo, heat capacity and vegetation coverage. Traffic and industry increase atmospheric aerosol. It is suggested that urbanization may modify rainfall processes through aerosol-cloud interactions or dynamic feedbacks. Because urbanization effect on climate is determined by many factors including land cover, the city's microscale features, population density, and human lifestyle patterns, it is necessary to study urban areas over globe.

  2. Linkage Behavior and Practices of Agencies in the Agricultural ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study examined the linkage behaviour and practices of agencies in the ... institutes; while (61.5%,65.5%and 50.0%) indicated that linkages with universities of ... Existing institutional framework for linkages between research and extension ...

  3. Exploitation of linkage learning in evolutionary algorithms

    CERN Document Server

    Chen, Ying-ping

    2010-01-01

    The exploitation of linkage learning is enhancing the performance of evolutionary algorithms. This monograph examines recent progress in linkage learning, with a series of focused technical chapters that cover developments and trends in the field.

  4. Climate change impacts in Zhuoshui watershed, Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, Yi-Chiung; Liu, Pei-Ling; Cheng, Chao-Tzuen; Li, Hsin-Chi; Wu, Tingyeh; Chen, Wei-Bo; Shih, Hung-Ju

    2017-04-01

    There are 5.3 typhoons hit Taiwan per year on average in last decade. Typhoon Morakot in 2009, the most severe typhoon, causes huge damage in Taiwan, including 677 casualty and roughly NT 110 billion (3.3 billion USD) in economic loss. Some researches documented that typhoon frequency will decrease but increase in intensity in western North Pacific region. It is usually preferred to use high resolution dynamical model to get better projection of extreme events; because coarse resolution models cannot simulate intense extreme events. Under that consideration, dynamical downscaling climate data was chosen to describe typhoon satisfactorily. One of the aims for Taiwan Climate Change Projection and Information Platform (TCCIP) is to demonstrate the linkage between climate change data and watershed impact models. The purpose is to understand relative disasters induced by extreme rainfall (typhoons) under climate change in watersheds including landslides, debris flows, channel erosion and deposition, floods, and economic loss. The study applied dynamic downscaling approach to release climate change projected typhoon events under RCP 8.5, the worst-case scenario. The Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability (TRIGRS) and FLO-2D models, then, were used to simulate hillslope disaster impacts in the upstream of Zhuoshui River. CCHE1D model was used to elevate the sediment erosion or deposition in channel. FVCOM model was used to asses a flood impact in urban area in the downstream. Finally, whole potential loss associate with these typhoon events was evaluated by the Taiwan Typhoon Loss Assessment System (TLAS) under climate change scenario. Results showed that the total loss will increase roughly by NT 49.7 billion (1.6 billion USD) in future in Zhuoshui watershed in Taiwan. The results of this research could help to understand future impact; however model bias still exists. Because typhoon track is a critical factor to consider regional

  5. Response of lake chemistry to atmospheric deposition and climate in selected Class I wilderness areas in the western United States, 1993-2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mast, M. Alisa

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Air Resource Management, conducted a study to evaluate long-term trends in lake-water chemistry for 64 high-elevation lakes in selected Class I wilderness areas in Colorado, Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming during 1993 to 2009. Understanding how and why lake chemistry is changing in mountain areas is essential for effectively managing and protecting high-elevation aquatic ecosystems. Trends in emissions, atmospheric deposition, and climate variables (air temperature and precipitation amount) were evaluated over a similar period of record. A main objective of the study was to determine if changes in atmospheric deposition of contaminants in the Rocky Mountain region have resulted in measurable changes in the chemistry of high-elevation lakes. A second objective was to investigate linkages between lake chemistry and air temperature and precipitation to improve understanding of the sensitivity of mountain lakes to climate variability.

  6. ANALYSIS OF INTER SECTORAL LINKAGES IN SEMARANG REGENCY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fafurida

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This research aims to analyze inter economic sectoral linkages and to arrange the Klassen typology of economic sectors in Semarang Regency. The Klassen typology is composed from the result of the linkage analysis. To construct the analysis, this paper also utulizes the input-output analysis. It finds that service sector has the highest backward linkage while farming sector has the highest forward linkage. Based on the Klassen typology analysis, sectors with the highest backward and forward linkages and potential to be the leading sector are farming sector, dan trade, hotel and restaurant sector.Keywords: Backward linkage,forward linkage, Klassen typologyJEL classification number: R15, O21AbstrakPenelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji seberapa besar keterkaitan antar sektor ekonomi di Kabupaten Semarang dan memetakan tipologi Klassennya. Tipologi Klasen disusun berdasarkan hasil perhitungan analisis keterkaitannya. Untuk menyusun analisis tersebut, paper ini juga menggunakan analisis input-output. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa sektor jasa memiliki keterkaitan ke belakang tertinggi dibandingkan dengan sektor lainnya. Sementara itu, sektor pertanian merupakan sektor yang memiliki keterkaitan ke depan tertinggi. Berdasarkan hasil analisis tipologi Klassen, sektor yang memiliki keterkaitan ke depan dan ke belakang yang tinggi dan dapat menjadi sektor unggulan adalah sektor perdagangan, hotel dan sektor restoran.Kata kunci: Keterkaitan ke belakang, keterkaitan ke depan, tipologi KlassenJEL classification numbers: R15, O21

  7. Posterior probability of linkage and maximal lod score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Génin, E; Martinez, M; Clerget-Darpoux, F

    1995-01-01

    To detect linkage between a trait and a marker, Morton (1955) proposed to calculate the lod score z(theta 1) at a given value theta 1 of the recombination fraction. If z(theta 1) reaches +3 then linkage is concluded. However, in practice, lod scores are calculated for different values of the recombination fraction between 0 and 0.5 and the test is based on the maximum value of the lod score Zmax. The impact of this deviation of the test on the probability that in fact linkage does not exist, when linkage was concluded, is documented here. This posterior probability of no linkage can be derived by using Bayes' theorem. It is less than 5% when the lod score at a predetermined theta 1 is used for the test. But, for a Zmax of +3, we showed that it can reach 16.4%. Thus, considering a composite alternative hypothesis instead of a single one decreases the reliability of the test. The reliability decreases rapidly when Zmax is less than +3. Given a Zmax of +2.5, there is a 33% chance that linkage does not exist. Moreover, the posterior probability depends not only on the value of Zmax but also jointly on the family structures and on the genetic model. For a given Zmax, the chance that linkage exists may then vary.

  8. Understanding and Projecting Climate and Human Impacts on Terrestrial-Coastal Carbon and Nutrient Fluxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lohrenz, S. E.; Cai, W. J.; Tian, H.; He, R.; Fennel, K.

    2017-12-01

    Changing climate and land use practices have the potential to dramatically alter coupled hydrologic-biogeochemical processes and associated movement of water, carbon and nutrients through various terrestrial reservoirs into rivers, estuaries, and coastal ocean waters. Consequences of climate- and land use-related changes will be particularly evident in large river basins and their associated coastal outflow regions. Here, we describe a NASA Carbon Monitoring System project that employs an integrated suite of models in conjunction with remotely sensed as well as targeted in situ observations with the objectives of describing processes controlling fluxes on land and their coupling to riverine, estuarine and ocean ecosystems. The nature of our approach, coupling models of terrestrial and ocean ecosystem dynamics and associated carbon processes, allows for assessment of how societal and human-related land use, land use change and forestry and climate-related change affect terrestrial carbon transport as well as export of materials through watersheds to the coastal margins. Our objectives include the following: 1) Provide representation of carbon processes in the terrestrial ecosystem to understand how changes in land use and climatic conditions influence the export of materials to the coastal ocean, 2) Couple the terrestrial exports of carbon, nutrients and freshwater to a coastal biogeochemical model and examine how different climate and land use scenarios influence fluxes across the land-ocean interface, and 3) Project future changes under different scenarios of climate and human impact, and support user needs related to carbon management and other activities (e.g., water quality, hypoxia, ocean acidification). This research is providing information that will contribute to determining an overall carbon balance in North America as well as describing and predicting how human- and climate-related changes impact coastal water quality including possible effects of coastal

  9. Twentieth century North Atlantic climate change. Part II: Understanding the effect of Indian Ocean warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoerling, M.P.; Xu, T.; Bates, G.T. [Climate Diagnostics Center NOAA, Boulder, CO 80305-3328 (United States); Hurrell, J.W.; Phillips, A.S. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2004-09-01

    Ensembles of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments are used in an effort to understand the boreal winter Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropical climate response to the observed warming of tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the last half of the twentieth Century. Specifically, we inquire about the origins of unusual, if not unprecedented, changes in the wintertime North Atlantic and European climate that are well described by a linear trend in most indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The simulated NH atmospheric response to the linear trend component of tropic-wide SST change since 1950 projects strongly onto the positive polarity of the NAO and is a hemispheric pattern distinguished by decreased (increased) Arctic (middle latitude) sea level pressure. Progressive warming of the Indian Ocean is the principal contributor to this wintertime extratropical response, as shown through additional AGCM ensembles forced with only the SST trend in that sector. The Indian Ocean influence is further established through the reproducibility of results across three different models forced with identical, idealized patterns of the observed warming. Examination of the transient atmospheric adjustment to a sudden ''switch-on'' of an Indian Ocean SST anomaly reveals that the North Atlantic response is not consistent with linear theory and most likely involves synoptic eddy feedbacks associated with changes in the North Atlantic storm track. The tropical SST control exerted over twentieth century regional climate underlies the importance of determining the future course of tropical SST for regional climate change and its uncertainty. Better understanding of the extratropical responses to different, plausible trajectories of the tropical oceans is key to such efforts. (orig.)

  10. A genetic linkage map for the saltwater crocodile (Crocodylus porosus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lance Stacey L

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Genome elucidation is now in high gear for many organisms, and whilst genetic maps have been developed for a broad array of species, surprisingly, no such maps exist for a crocodilian, or indeed any other non-avian member of the Class Reptilia. Genetic linkage maps are essential tools for the mapping and dissection of complex quantitative trait loci (QTL, and in order to permit systematic genome scans for the identification of genes affecting economically important traits in farmed crocodilians, a comprehensive genetic linage map will be necessary. Results A first-generation genetic linkage map for the saltwater crocodile (Crocodylus porosus was constructed using 203 microsatellite markers amplified across a two-generation pedigree comprising ten full-sib families from a commercial population at Darwin Crocodile Farm, Northern Territory, Australia. Linkage analyses identified fourteen linkage groups comprising a total of 180 loci, with 23 loci remaining unlinked. Markers were ordered within linkage groups employing a heuristic approach using CRIMAP v3.0 software. The estimated female and male recombination map lengths were 1824.1 and 319.0 centimorgans (cM respectively, revealing an uncommonly large disparity in recombination map lengths between sexes (ratio of 5.7:1. Conclusion We have generated the first genetic linkage map for a crocodilian, or indeed any other non-avian reptile. The uncommonly large disparity in recombination map lengths confirms previous preliminary evidence of major differences in sex-specific recombination rates in a species that exhibits temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD. However, at this point the reason for this disparity in saltwater crocodiles remains unclear. This map will be a valuable resource for crocodilian researchers, facilitating the systematic genome scans necessary for identifying genes affecting complex traits of economic importance in the crocodile industry. In addition

  11. [Constructing climate. From classical climatology to modern climate research].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heymann, Matthias

    2009-01-01

    Both climate researchers and historians of climate science have conceived climate as a stable and well defined category. This article argues that such a conception is flawed. In the course of the 19th and 20th century the very concept of climate changed considerably. Scientists came up with different definitions and concepts of climate, which implied different understandings, interests, and research approaches. Understanding climate shifted from a timeless, spatial concept at the end of the 19th century to a spaceless, temporal concept at the end of the 20th. Climatologists in the 19th and early 20th centuries considered climate as a set of atmospheric characteristics associated with specific places or regions. In this context, while the weather was subject to change, climate remained largely stable. Of particular interest was the impact of climate on human beings and the environment. In modern climate research at the close of the 20th century, the concept of climate lost its temporal stability. Instead, climate change has become a core feature of the understanding of climate and a focus of research interests. Climate has also lost its immediate association with specific geographical places and become global. The interest is now focused on the impact of human beings on climate. The paper attempts to investigate these conceptual shifts and their origins and impacts in order to provide a more comprehensive perspective on the history of climate research.

  12. Linkage and related analyses of Barrett's esophagus and its associated adenocarcinomas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xiangqing; Elston, Robert; Falk, Gary W; Grady, William M; Faulx, Ashley; Mittal, Sumeet K; Canto, Marcia I; Shaheen, Nicholas J; Wang, Jean S; Iyer, Prasad G; Abrams, Julian A; Willis, Joseph E; Guda, Kishore; Markowitz, Sanford; Barnholtz-Sloan, Jill S; Chandar, Apoorva; Brock, Wendy; Chak, Amitabh

    2016-07-01

    Familial aggregation and segregation analysis studies have provided evidence of a genetic basis for esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) and its premalignant precursor, Barrett's esophagus (BE). We aim to demonstrate the utility of linkage analysis to identify the genomic regions that might contain the genetic variants that predispose individuals to this complex trait (BE and EAC). We genotyped 144 individuals in 42 multiplex pedigrees chosen from 1000 singly ascertained BE/EAC pedigrees, and performed both model-based and model-free linkage analyses, using S.A.G.E. and other software. Segregation models were fitted, from the data on both the 42 pedigrees and the 1000 pedigrees, to determine parameters for performing model-based linkage analysis. Model-based and model-free linkage analyses were conducted in two sets of pedigrees: the 42 pedigrees and a subset of 18 pedigrees with female affected members that are expected to be more genetically homogeneous. Genome-wide associations were also tested in these families. Linkage analyses on the 42 pedigrees identified several regions consistently suggestive of linkage by different linkage analysis methods on chromosomes 2q31, 12q23, and 4p14. A linkage on 15q26 is the only consistent linkage region identified in the 18 female-affected pedigrees, in which the linkage signal is higher than in the 42 pedigrees. Other tentative linkage signals are also reported. Our linkage study of BE/EAC pedigrees identified linkage regions on chromosomes 2, 4, 12, and 15, with some reported associations located within our linkage peaks. Our linkage results can help prioritize association tests to delineate the genetic determinants underlying susceptibility to BE and EAC.

  13. ECOTOXICOGENOMICS: LINKAGES BETWEEN EXPOSURE AND EFFECTS IN ASSESSING RISKS OF AQUATIC CONTAMINANTS TO FISH (JOURNAL ARTICLE)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Understanding the biological effects of exposures to chemicals in the environment relies on classical methods and emerging technologies in the areas of genomics, proteomics, and metabonomics. Linkages between the historical and newer toxicological tools are currently being devel...

  14. Social and economic impacts of climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carleton, Tamma A; Hsiang, Solomon M

    2016-09-09

    For centuries, thinkers have considered whether and how climatic conditions-such as temperature, rainfall, and violent storms-influence the nature of societies and the performance of economies. A multidisciplinary renaissance of quantitative empirical research is illuminating important linkages in the coupled climate-human system. We highlight key methodological innovations and results describing effects of climate on health, economics, conflict, migration, and demographics. Because of persistent "adaptation gaps," current climate conditions continue to play a substantial role in shaping modern society, and future climate changes will likely have additional impact. For example, we compute that temperature depresses current U.S. maize yields by ~48%, warming since 1980 elevated conflict risk in Africa by ~11%, and future warming may slow global economic growth rates by ~0.28 percentage points per year. In general, we estimate that the economic and social burden of current climates tends to be comparable in magnitude to the additional projected impact caused by future anthropogenic climate changes. Overall, findings from this literature point to climate as an important influence on the historical evolution of the global economy, they should inform how we respond to modern climatic conditions, and they can guide how we predict the consequences of future climate changes. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  15. Butterfly effect: understanding and mitigating the local consequences of climate change impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lorenz, Donna

    2007-01-01

    Full text: The Butterfly Effect is the notion that tiny differences in initial conditions are amplified in the evolution of a dynamic system and directly affect the eventual outcome. In 1963 mathematician and meteorologist Edward Lorenz proposed that the flapping of a butterfly's wing would cause a disturbance that becomes exponentially amplified so as to eventually affect large-scale atmospheric motion. This was to illustrate the 'sensitive dependence on initial conditions'; sensitivity also true in affecting the extent of damages experienced as a result of climate change. In a climate change context, The Butterfly Effect suggests the local consequences of climate change impacts will depend on their interaction with the economic, environmental, institutional, technological and demographic attributes unique to a city or region. It is this mix of factors that will determine the extent, both positively and negatively, to which climate change will be experienced locally. For a truly effective climate change response, it is imperative that regional risk assessments and adaptation strategies take into account not only the projected impacts but the full range of flow-on implications of those impacts and their sensitivity factors. Understanding of the sensitivity factors that will amplify or mitigate climate change impacts and implications enables government and business leaders to calculate the likely extent of localised damages if no adaptation is undertaken. This allows industries and communities to evaluate the likely significance of a particular impact and to consider how to adjust or counter the sensitivity factor to build resilience and reduce vulnerability. Thus, it also assists in the local prioritisation of issues and responses. Such a strategic response can also mean the required adaptation measures may be less extensive and thereby require less cost and time to implement. This paper discusses the flow-on implications of Australia's projected climate change

  16. Testing association and linkage using affected-sib-parent study designs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millstein, Joshua; Siegmund, Kimberly D; Conti, David V; Gauderman, W James

    2005-11-01

    We have developed a method for jointly testing linkage and association using data from affected sib pairs and their parents. We specify a conditional logistic regression model with two covariates, one that quantifies association (either direct association or indirect association via linkage disequilibrium), and a second that quantifies linkage. The latter covariate is computed based on expected identity-by-descend (ibd) sharing of marker alleles between siblings. In addition to a joint test of linkage and association, our general framework can be used to obtain a linkage test comparable to the mean test (Blackwelder and Elston [1985] Genet. Epidemiol. 2:85-97), and an association test comparable to the Family-Based Association Test (FBAT; Rabinowitz and Laird [2000] Hum. Hered. 50:211-223). We present simulation results demonstrating that our joint test can be more powerful than some standard tests of linkage or association. For example, with a relative risk of 2.7 per variant allele at a disease locus, the estimated power to detect a nearby marker with a modest level of LD was 58.1% by the mean test (linkage only), 69.8% by FBAT, and 82.5% by our joint test of linkage and association. Our model can also be used to obtain tests of linkage conditional on association and association conditional on linkage, which can be helpful in fine mapping. Copyright 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  17. Natural versus anthropogenic climate change: Swedish farmers' joint construction of climate perceptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asplund, Therese

    2016-07-01

    While previous research into understandings of climate change has usually examined general public perceptions, this study offers an audience-specific departure point. This article analyses how Swedish farmers perceive climate change and how they jointly shape their understandings. The agricultural sector is of special interest because it both contributes to and is directly affected by climate change. Through focus group discussions with Swedish farmers, this study finds that (1) farmers relate to and understand climate change through their own experiences, (2) climate change is understood either as a natural process subject to little or no human influence or as anthropogenic and (3) various communication tools contribute to the formation of natural and anthropogenic climate change frames. The article ends by discussing frame resonance and frame clash in public understanding of climate change and by comparing potential similarities and differences in how various segments of the public make sense of climate change. © The Author(s) 2014.

  18. Privacy-preserving record linkage on large real world datasets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randall, Sean M; Ferrante, Anna M; Boyd, James H; Bauer, Jacqueline K; Semmens, James B

    2014-08-01

    Record linkage typically involves the use of dedicated linkage units who are supplied with personally identifying information to determine individuals from within and across datasets. The personally identifying information supplied to linkage units is separated from clinical information prior to release by data custodians. While this substantially reduces the risk of disclosure of sensitive information, some residual risks still exist and remain a concern for some custodians. In this paper we trial a method of record linkage which reduces privacy risk still further on large real world administrative data. The method uses encrypted personal identifying information (bloom filters) in a probability-based linkage framework. The privacy preserving linkage method was tested on ten years of New South Wales (NSW) and Western Australian (WA) hospital admissions data, comprising in total over 26 million records. No difference in linkage quality was found when the results were compared to traditional probabilistic methods using full unencrypted personal identifiers. This presents as a possible means of reducing privacy risks related to record linkage in population level research studies. It is hoped that through adaptations of this method or similar privacy preserving methods, risks related to information disclosure can be reduced so that the benefits of linked research taking place can be fully realised. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Learning network theory : its contribution to our understanding of work-based learning projects and learning climate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Poell, R.F.; Moorsel, M.A.A.H. van

    1996-01-01

    This paper discusses the relevance of Van der Krogt's learning network theory (1995) for our understanding of the concepts of work-related learning projects and learning climate in organisations. The main assumptions of the learning network theory are presented and transferred to the level of

  20. Developing Capacity for Cities to Adapt to a Changing Climate-a Case Study in Boulder, Colorado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sands, R.; Groves, D. G.; Nason, M.; Pandya, R.

    2016-12-01

    The City of Boulder in Colorado has undertaken many progressive climate-related initiatives, from signing the Kyoto protocol to passing a Climate Action Tax. But as the city prepared to launch its Climate Commitment document and lead a community process, it realized that one critical group that had not been fully engaged in the process was its own staff. It became clear that for organizational change to occur and for the city to meet its goals, city staff needed to develop a deeper understanding of the importance of the climate goals while also learning better how to use these goals to guide their long-term planning. In early 2016, the city launched a year-long "Climate Leaders" initiative which comprised of a series of workshops that brought together over 70 staff members with climate scientists and experts in climate adaptation planning. The first two workshops, billed as Climate 101 and 201, reviewed the best available scientific information about climate threats and potential impacts, and worked with participants to understand how climate changes could affect diverse city functions. These interactive workshops also explored ways to help city staff feel comfortable preparing for a significantly different climate and discussed ways to communicate this information to the public. From there the group split into two tracks. A "mitigation" track focused on the ways in which Boulder could meet its aggressive emissions reduction targets. The "adaptation" track developed integrated scenarios for citywide planning to highlight Boulder's vulnerability to climate change and guide adaptation planning. Bringing these two conversations together is helping city staff to explore critical linkages between mitigation and adaptation, develop common messages to build community support for climate action, and inform comprehensive climate resiliency planning. We will describe how Boulder successfully partnered with scientists and planning experts to program a year of interactive

  1. Genome-wide linkage analysis for human longevity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beekman, Marian; Blanché, Hélène; Perola, Markus

    2013-01-01

    Clear evidence exists for heritability of human longevity, and much interest is focused on identifying genes associated with longer lives. To identify such longevity alleles, we performed the largest genome-wide linkage scan thus far reported. Linkage analyses included 2118 nonagenarian Caucasian...

  2. Pleistocene climate, phylogeny, and climate envelope models: an integrative approach to better understand species' response to climate change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A Michelle Lawing

    Full Text Available Mean annual temperature reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change increases at least 1.1°C to 6.4°C over the next 90 years. In context, a change in climate of 6°C is approximately the difference between the mean annual temperature of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM and our current warm interglacial. Species have been responding to changing climate throughout Earth's history and their previous biological responses can inform our expectations for future climate change. Here we synthesize geological evidence in the form of stable oxygen isotopes, general circulation paleoclimate models, species' evolutionary relatedness, and species' geographic distributions. We use the stable oxygen isotope record to develop a series of temporally high-resolution paleoclimate reconstructions spanning the Middle Pleistocene to Recent, which we use to map ancestral climatic envelope reconstructions for North American rattlesnakes. A simple linear interpolation between current climate and a general circulation paleoclimate model of the LGM using stable oxygen isotope ratios provides good estimates of paleoclimate at other time periods. We use geologically informed rates of change derived from these reconstructions to predict magnitudes and rates of change in species' suitable habitat over the next century. Our approach to modeling the past suitable habitat of species is general and can be adopted by others. We use multiple lines of evidence of past climate (isotopes and climate models, phylogenetic topology (to correct the models for long-term changes in the suitable habitat of a species, and the fossil record, however sparse, to cross check the models. Our models indicate the annual rate of displacement in a clade of rattlesnakes over the next century will be 2 to 3 orders of magnitude greater (430-2,420 m/yr than it has been on average for the past 320 ky (2.3 m/yr.

  3. Climate - 30 questions to understand the Paris Conference

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Canfin, Pascal; Staime, Peter

    2015-01-01

    The authors, who participate in the negotiations on climate, propose an analysis and a description of the various geopolitical, economic and financial challenges which are part of the next conference on climate (Conference of Parties, COP 21) which is to take place in France in December 2015. They notably discuss to which extent France is an example, what Obama can do, why things are changing in China, who are the opponents in the struggle against climate change. While one of the main issue of this conference, and the possible cause of its failure, will be the financial issue, and particularly the promise made in 2009 to mobilise 100 billions dollars every year in favour of developing countries which are the most impacted by global warming, in an interview, one of the author evokes the content of his book: he discusses the general consensus about the human origin of climate change, evokes fossil industries and oil producing countries as opponents to an energy revolution, outlines that energy transition is at the heart of what he calls the Battle of Paris (the conference), outlines the important role France can play despite some weaknesses of its climate policy, the new momentum given by China and the USA. He considers low carbon economy as the main world challenge on the long term

  4. Forests under climate change and air pollution: gaps in understanding and future directions for research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matyssek, R; Wieser, G; Calfapietra, C; de Vries, W; Dizengremel, P; Ernst, D; Jolivet, Y; Mikkelsen, T N; Mohren, G M J; Le Thiec, D; Tuovinen, J-P; Weatherall, A; Paoletti, E

    2012-01-01

    Forests in Europe face significant changes in climate, which in interaction with air quality changes, may significantly affect forest productivity, stand composition and carbon sequestration in both vegetation and soils. Identified knowledge gaps and research needs include: (i) interaction between changes in air quality (trace gas concentrations), climate and other site factors on forest ecosystem response, (ii) significance of biotic processes in system response, (iii) tools for mechanistic and diagnostic understanding and upscaling, and (iv) the need for unifying modelling and empirical research for synthesis. This position paper highlights the above focuses, including the global dimension of air pollution as part of climate change and the need for knowledge transfer to enable reliable risk assessment. A new type of research site in forest ecosystems ("supersites") will be conducive to addressing these gaps by enabling integration of experimentation and modelling within the soil-plant-atmosphere interface, as well as further model development. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Fine mapping quantitative trait loci under selective phenotyping strategies based on linkage and linkage disequilibrium criteria

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ansari-Mahyari, S; Berg, P; Lund, M S

    2009-01-01

    disequilibrium-based sampling criteria (LDC) for selecting individuals to phenotype are compared to random phenotyping in a quantitative trait loci (QTL) verification experiment using stochastic simulation. Several strategies based on LAC and LDC for selecting the most informative 30%, 40% or 50% of individuals...... for phenotyping to extract maximum power and precision in a QTL fine mapping experiment were developed and assessed. Linkage analyses for the mapping was performed for individuals sampled on LAC within families and combined linkage disequilibrium and linkage analyses was performed for individuals sampled across...... the whole population based on LDC. The results showed that selecting individuals with similar haplotypes to the paternal haplotypes (minimum recombination criterion) using LAC compared to random phenotyping gave at least the same power to detect a QTL but decreased the accuracy of the QTL position. However...

  6. Dynamic changes in protein functional linkage networks revealed by integration with gene expression data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shubhada R Hegde

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Response of cells to changing environmental conditions is governed by the dynamics of intricate biomolecular interactions. It may be reasonable to assume, proteins being the dominant macromolecules that carry out routine cellular functions, that understanding the dynamics of protein:protein interactions might yield useful insights into the cellular responses. The large-scale protein interaction data sets are, however, unable to capture the changes in the profile of protein:protein interactions. In order to understand how these interactions change dynamically, we have constructed conditional protein linkages for Escherichia coli by integrating functional linkages and gene expression information. As a case study, we have chosen to analyze UV exposure in wild-type and SOS deficient E. coli at 20 minutes post irradiation. The conditional networks exhibit similar topological properties. Although the global topological properties of the networks are similar, many subtle local changes are observed, which are suggestive of the cellular response to the perturbations. Some such changes correspond to differences in the path lengths among the nodes of carbohydrate metabolism correlating with its loss in efficiency in the UV treated cells. Similarly, expression of hubs under unique conditions reflects the importance of these genes. Various centrality measures applied to the networks indicate increased importance for replication, repair, and other stress proteins for the cells under UV treatment, as anticipated. We thus propose a novel approach for studying an organism at the systems level by integrating genome-wide functional linkages and the gene expression data.

  7. Understanding Indian Institutional Networks and Participation in Water Management Adaptation to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azhoni, A.; Holman, I.; Jude, S.

    2014-12-01

    Adaptation to climate change for water management involves complex interactions between different actors and sectors. The need to understand the relationships between key stakeholder institutions (KSIs) is increasingly recognized. The complexity of water management in India has meant that enhancing adaptive capacity through improved inter-institutional networks remains a challenge for both government and non-governmental institutions. To analyse such complex inter-actions this study has used Social Network and Stakeholder Analysis tools to quantify the participation of, and interactions between, each KSI in the climate change adaptation and water discourse based on keyword analysis of their online presence. Using NodeXL, a Social Network Analysis tool, network diagrams have been used to evaluate the inter-relationships between these KSIs. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with twenty-five KSIs to identify the main barriers to adaptation and to triangulate the findings of the e-documents analysis. The analysis found that there is an inverse relationship between institutions' reference to water and climate change in their web-documents. Most institutions emphasize mitigation rather than adaptation. Bureaucratic delays, poor coordination between the KSIs, unclear policies and systemic deficiencies are identified as key barriers to improving adaptive capacity within water management to climate change. However, the increasing attention being given to the perceived climate change impacts on the water sector and improving the inter-institutional networks are some of the opportunities for Indian water institutions. Although websites of Union Government Institutions seldom directly hyperlink to one another, they are linked through "bridging" websites which have the potential to act as brokers for enhancing adaptive capacity. The research has wider implications for analysis of complex inter-disciplinary and inter-institutional issues involving multi stakeholders.

  8. Estimating parameters for probabilistic linkage of privacy-preserved datasets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Adrian P; Randall, Sean M; Ferrante, Anna M; Semmens, James B; Boyd, James H

    2017-07-10

    Probabilistic record linkage is a process used to bring together person-based records from within the same dataset (de-duplication) or from disparate datasets using pairwise comparisons and matching probabilities. The linkage strategy and associated match probabilities are often estimated through investigations into data quality and manual inspection. However, as privacy-preserved datasets comprise encrypted data, such methods are not possible. In this paper, we present a method for estimating the probabilities and threshold values for probabilistic privacy-preserved record linkage using Bloom filters. Our method was tested through a simulation study using synthetic data, followed by an application using real-world administrative data. Synthetic datasets were generated with error rates from zero to 20% error. Our method was used to estimate parameters (probabilities and thresholds) for de-duplication linkages. Linkage quality was determined by F-measure. Each dataset was privacy-preserved using separate Bloom filters for each field. Match probabilities were estimated using the expectation-maximisation (EM) algorithm on the privacy-preserved data. Threshold cut-off values were determined by an extension to the EM algorithm allowing linkage quality to be estimated for each possible threshold. De-duplication linkages of each privacy-preserved dataset were performed using both estimated and calculated probabilities. Linkage quality using the F-measure at the estimated threshold values was also compared to the highest F-measure. Three large administrative datasets were used to demonstrate the applicability of the probability and threshold estimation technique on real-world data. Linkage of the synthetic datasets using the estimated probabilities produced an F-measure that was comparable to the F-measure using calculated probabilities, even with up to 20% error. Linkage of the administrative datasets using estimated probabilities produced an F-measure that was higher

  9. RLT-S: A Web System for Record Linkage.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdullah-Al Mamun

    Full Text Available Record linkage integrates records across multiple related data sources identifying duplicates and accounting for possible errors. Real life applications require efficient algorithms to merge these voluminous data sources to find out all records belonging to same individuals. Our recently devised highly efficient record linkage algorithms provide best-known solutions to this challenging problem.We have developed RLT-S, a freely available web tool, which implements our single linkage clustering algorithm for record linkage. This tool requires input data sets and a small set of configuration settings about these files to work efficiently. RLT-S employs exact match clustering, blocking on a specified attribute and single linkage based hierarchical clustering among these blocks.RLT-S is an implementation package of our sequential record linkage algorithm. It outperforms previous best-known implementations by a large margin. The tool is at least two times faster for any dataset than the previous best-known tools.RLT-S tool implements our record linkage algorithm that outperforms previous best-known algorithms in this area. This website also contains necessary information such as instructions, submission history, feedback, publications and some other sections to facilitate the usage of the tool.RLT-S is integrated into http://www.rlatools.com, which is currently serving this tool only. The tool is freely available and can be used without login. All data files used in this paper have been stored in https://github.com/abdullah009/DataRLATools. For copies of the relevant programs please see https://github.com/abdullah009/RLATools.

  10. Understanding Climate Change and Manifestation of its Driven ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This article examines the nature and manifestation of climate change driven impacts on the agrarian districts of Kongwa and Bahi in the semi arid areas of Dodoma region in Tanzania. A Survey of 398 households in the study area was undertaken to elicit information on the nature and manifestation of climate change driven ...

  11. Linkage analysis: Inadequate for detecting susceptibility loci in complex disorders?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Field, L.L.; Nagatomi, J. [Univ. of Calgary, Alberta (Canada)

    1994-09-01

    Insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (IDDM) may provide valuable clues about approaches to detecting susceptibility loci in other oligogenic disorders. Numerous studies have demonstrated significant association between IDDM and a VNTR in the 5{prime} flanking region of the insulin (INS) gene. Paradoxically, all attempts to demonstrate linkage of IDDM to this VNTR have failed. Lack of linkage has been attributed to insufficient marker locus information, genetic heterogeneity, or high frequency of the IDDM-predisposing allele in the general population. Tyrosine hydroxylase (TH) is located 2.7 kb from INS on the 5` side of the VNTR and shows linkage disequilibrium with INS region loci. We typed a highly polymorphic microsatellite within TH in 176 multiplex families, and performed parametric (lod score) linkage analysis using various intermediate reduced penetrance models for IDDM (including rare and common disease allele frequencies), as well as non-parametric (affected sib pair) linkage analysis. The scores significantly reject linkage for recombination values of .05 or less, excluding the entire 19 kb region containing TH, the 5{prime} VNTR, the INS gene, and IGF2 on the 3{prime} side of INS. Non-parametric linkage analysis also provided no significant evidence for linkage (mean TH allele sharing 52.5%, P=.12). These results have important implications for efforts to locate genes predisposing to complex disorders, strongly suggesting that regions which are significantly excluded by linkage methods may nevertheless contain predisposing genes readily detectable by association methods. We advocate that investigators routinely perform association analyses in addition to linkage analyses.

  12. Climate Drivers of Spatiotemporal Variability of Precipitation in the Source Region of Yangtze River

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Y.; Berndtsson, R.; An, D.; Yuan, F.

    2017-12-01

    Variability of precipitation regime has significant influence on the environment sustainability in the source region of Yangtze River, especially when the vegetation degradation and biodiversity reduction have already occurred. Understanding the linkage between variability of local precipitation and global teleconnection patterns is essential for water resources management. Based on physical reasoning, indices of the climate drivers can provide a practical way of predicting precipitation. Due to high seasonal variability of precipitation, climate drivers of the seasonal precipitation also varies. However, few reports have gone through the teleconnections between large scale patterns with seasonal precipitation in the source region of Yangtze River. The objectives of this study are therefore (1) assessment of temporal trend and spatial variability of precipitation in the source region of Yangtze River; (2) identification of climate indices with strong influence on seasonal precipitation anomalies; (3) prediction of seasonal precipitation based on revealed climate indices. Principal component analysis and Spearman rank correlation were used to detect significant relationships. A feed-forward artificial neural network(ANN) was developed to predict seasonal precipitation using significant correlated climate indices. Different influencing climate indices were revealed for precipitation in each season, with significant level and lag times. Significant influencing factors were selected to be the predictors for ANN model. With correlation coefficients between observed and simulated precipitation over 0.5, the results were eligible to predict the precipitation of spring, summer and winter using teleconnections, which can improve integrated water resources management in the source region of Yangtze River.

  13. Relative Linkages of Chlorophyll-a with the Hydroclimatic and Biogeochemical Variables across the Continental U.S. (CONUS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, M. H.; Abdul-Aziz, O. I.

    2017-12-01

    Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) is a key indicator for stream water quality and ecological health. The characterization of interplay between Chl-a and its numerous hydroclimatic and biogeochemical drivers is complex, and often involves multicollinear datasets. A systematic data analytics methodology was employed to determine the relative linkages of stream Chl-a with its dynamic environmental drivers at 50 stream water quality monitoring stations across the continental U.S. Multivariate statistical techniques of principal component analysis (PCA) and factor analysis (FA), in concert with Pearson correlation analysis, were applied to evaluate interrelationships among hydroclimatic, biogeochemical, and biological variables. Power-law based partial least square regression (PLSR) models were developed with a bootstrap Monte Carlo procedure (1000 iterations) to reliably estimate the comparative linkages of Chl-a by resolving multicollinearity in the data matrices (Nash-Sutcliff efficiency = 0.50-87). The data analytics suggested four environmental regimes of stream Chl-a, as dominated by nutrient, climate, redox, and hydro-atmospheric contributions, respectively. Total phosphorous (TP) was the most dominant driver of stream Chl-a in the nutrient controlled regime. Water temperature demonstrated the strongest control of Chl-a in the climate-dominated regime. Furthermore, pH and stream flow were found to be the most important drivers of Chl-a in the redox and hydro-atmospheric component dominated regimes, respectively. The research led to a significant reduction of dimensionality in the large data matrices, providing quantitative and qualitative insights on the dynamics of stream Chl-a. The findings would be useful to manage stream water quality and ecosystem health in the continental U.S. and around the world under a changing climate and environment.

  14. Detection of QTL for Carcass Quality on Chromosome 6 by Exploiting Linkage and Linkage Disequilibrium in Hanwoo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-H. Lee

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to improve mapping power and resolution for the QTL influencing carcass quality in Hanwoo, which was previously detected on the bovine chromosome (BTA 6. A sample of 427 steers were chosen, which were the progeny from 45 Korean proven sires in the Hanwoo Improvement Center, Seosan, Korea. The samples were genotyped with the set of 2,535 SNPs on BTA6 that were imbedded in the Illumina bovine 50 k chip. A linkage disequilibrium variance component mapping (LDVCM method, which exploited both linkage between sires and their steers and population-wide linkage disequilibrium, was applied to detect QTL for four carcass quality traits. Fifteen QTL were detected at 0.1% comparison-wise level, for which five, three, five, and two QTL were associated with carcass weight (CWT, backfat thickness (BFT, longissimus dorsi muscle area (LMA, and marbling score (Marb, respectively. The number of QTL was greater compared with our previous results, in which twelve QTL for carcass quality were detected on the BTA6 in the same population by applying other linkage disequilibrium mapping approaches. One QTL for LMA was detected on the distal region (110,285,672 to 110,633,096 bp with the most significant evidence for linkage (p<10−5. Another QTL that was detected on the proximal region (33,596,515 to 33,897,434 bp was pleiotrophic, i.e. influencing CWT, BFT, and LMA. Our results suggest that the LDVCM is a good alternative method for QTL fine-mapping in detection and characterization of QTL.

  15. A general model for likelihood computations of genetic marker data accounting for linkage, linkage disequilibrium, and mutations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kling, Daniel; Tillmar, Andreas; Egeland, Thore; Mostad, Petter

    2015-09-01

    Several applications necessitate an unbiased determination of relatedness, be it in linkage or association studies or in a forensic setting. An appropriate model to compute the joint probability of some genetic data for a set of persons given some hypothesis about the pedigree structure is then required. The increasing number of markers available through high-density SNP microarray typing and NGS technologies intensifies the demand, where using a large number of markers may lead to biased results due to strong dependencies between closely located loci, both within pedigrees (linkage) and in the population (allelic association or linkage disequilibrium (LD)). We present a new general model, based on a Markov chain for inheritance patterns and another Markov chain for founder allele patterns, the latter allowing us to account for LD. We also demonstrate a specific implementation for X chromosomal markers that allows for computation of likelihoods based on hypotheses of alleged relationships and genetic marker data. The algorithm can simultaneously account for linkage, LD, and mutations. We demonstrate its feasibility using simulated examples. The algorithm is implemented in the software FamLinkX, providing a user-friendly GUI for Windows systems (FamLinkX, as well as further usage instructions, is freely available at www.famlink.se ). Our software provides the necessary means to solve cases where no previous implementation exists. In addition, the software has the possibility to perform simulations in order to further study the impact of linkage and LD on computed likelihoods for an arbitrary set of markers.

  16. Analysis of sulfidic linkages formed in natural rubber latex medical gloves by using X-ray absorption near edge structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chankrachang, M.; Limphirat, W.; Yongyingsakthavorn, P.; Nontakaew, U.; Tohsan, A.

    2017-09-01

    A study of sulfidic linkages formed in natural rubber (NR) latex medical gloves by using X-ray Absorption Near Edge Structure (XANES) is presented in this paper. The NR latex compound was prepared by using prevulcanization method, that is, it was prevulcanized at room temperature for 24 hrs before utilization. After the 24 hrs of prevulcanization, the latex film samples were obtained by dipping process. The dipped films were subjected to vulcanize at 110°C for 5 to 25 min. It was observed that after the compound was prevulcanized for 24 hrs, polysulfidic linkages were mainly formed in the sample. It was however found that after curing at 110°C for 5-25 min, the polysulfidic linkages are tended to change into disulfide linkages. Especially, in the case of 25 minutes cured sample, disulfide linkages are found to be the main linkages. In term of tensile strength, it was observed that when cure time increased from 5 - 10 min, tensile strengths were also increased. But when the cure time of the film is 25 minutes, tensile strength was slightly dropped. The dropped of tensile strength when cure time is longer than 10 minutes can be ascribed to a degradation of polysulfidic and disulfidic linkages during curing. Therefore, by using XANES analysis, it was found to be very useful to understand the cure characteristic, thus it can be very helpful to optimize cure time and tensile properties of the product.

  17. Prospects for future climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1990-01-01

    The different climates of the past and model simulations of future climates convincingly indicate that the continuing emissions of greenhouse gases will lead to significant global warming and to changes in precipitation and other climatic variables. The projected changes in atmospheric composition and, consequently, in climatic conditions will be unique and more rapid than at any time in the past. The developing understanding of the chemical cycles controlling atmospheric composition and of the processes and behavior controlling the climate system can provide significant guidance about how the future climate will change. This chapter first summarizes the many scientific advances described in the preceding chapters that can help one better understand and describe the climate system and the resulting agricultural and hydrological impacts of these changes in climate. The chapter then draws from this understanding to outline the prospects for future climate

  18. Mapping of yield, yield stability, yield adaptability and other traits in barley using linkage disequilibrium mapping and linkage analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kraakman, A.T.W.

    2005-01-01

    Plants is mostly done through linkage analysis. A segregating mapping population Identification and mappping of Quantitative Trait Loci (QTLs) in is created from a bi-parental cross and linkages between trait values and mapped markers reveal the positions ofQTLs. In

  19. Two-locus linkage analysis in multiple sclerosis (MS)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tienari, P.J. (National Public Health Institute, Helsinki (Finland) Univ. of Helsinki (Finland)); Terwilliger, J.D.; Ott, J. (Columbia Univ., New York (United States)); Palo, J. (Univ. of Helsinki (Finland)); Peltonen, L. (National Public Health Institute, Helsinki (Finland))

    1994-01-15

    One of the major challenges in genetic linkage analyses is the study of complex diseases. The authors demonstrate here the use of two-locus linkage analysis in multiple sclerosis (MS), a multifactorial disease with a complex mode of inheritance. In a set of Finnish multiplex families, they have previously found evidence for linkage between MS susceptibility and two independent loci, the myelin basic protein gene (MBP) on chromosome 18 and the HLA complex on chromosome 6. This set of families provides a unique opportunity to perform linkage analysis conditional on two loci contributing to the disease. In the two-trait-locus/two-marker-locus analysis, the presence of another disease locus is parametrized and the analysis more appropriately treats information from the unaffected family member than single-disease-locus analysis. As exemplified here in MS, the two-locus analysis can be a powerful method for investigating susceptibility loci in complex traits, best suited for analysis of specific candidate genes, or for situations in which preliminary evidence for linkage already exists or is suggested. 41 refs., 6 tabs.

  20. Using Bureaucratic and Cultural Linkages to Improve Instruction: The Principal's Contribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Firestone, William A.; Wilson, Bruce L.

    1985-01-01

    Principals can influence teachers and instructional behavior by working through linkage mechanisms within the organizational structure of the school. Two types of linkages are identified: bureaucratic and cultural. Principals have access to linkages of both kinds; using linkages effectively, they can generate a common purpose in their schools. (MD)

  1. Teaching Climate Social Science and Its Practices: A Two-Pronged Approach to Climate Literacy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shwom, R.; Isenhour, C.; McCright, A.; Robinson, J.; Jordan, R.

    2014-12-01

    The Essential Principles of Climate Science Literacy states that a climate-literate individual can: "understand the essential principles of Earth's climate system, assess scientifically credible information about climate change, communicate about climate and climate change in a meaningful way, and make informed and responsible decisions with regard to actions that may affect climate." We argue that further integration of the social science dimensions of climate change will advance the climate literacy goals of communication and responsible actions. The underlying rationale for this argues: 1) teaching the habits of mind and scientific practices that have synergies across the social and natural sciences can strengthen students ability to understand and assess science in general and that 2) understanding the empirical research on the social, political, and economic processes (including climate science itself) that are part of the climate system is an important step for enabling effective action and communication. For example, while climate literacy has often identified the public's faulty mental models of climate processes as a partial explanation of complacency, emerging research suggests that the public's mental models of the social world are equally or more important in leading to informed and responsible climate decisions. Building student's ability to think across the social and natural sciences by understanding "how we know what we know" through the sciences and a scientific understanding of the social world allows us to achieve climate literacy goals more systematically and completely. To enable this integration we first identify the robust social science insights for the climate science literacy principles that involve social systems. We then briefly identify significant social science contributions to climate science literacy that do not clearly fit within the seven climate literacy principles but arguably could advance climate literacy goals. We conclude

  2. Climate-related environmental stress in intertidal grazers: scaling-up biochemical responses to assemblage-level processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Maggi

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Background Organisms are facing increasing levels of environmental stress under climate change that may severely affect the functioning of biological systems at different levels of organization. Growing evidence suggests that reduction in body size is a universal response of organisms to global warming. However, a clear understanding of whether extreme climate events will impose selection directly on phenotypic plastic responses and how these responses affect ecological interactions has remained elusive. Methods We experimentally investigated the effects of extreme desiccation events on antioxidant defense mechanisms of a rocky intertidal gastropod (Patella ulyssiponensis, and evaluated how these effects scaled-up at the population and assemblage levels. Results With increasing levels of desiccation stress, limpets showed significant lower levels of total glutathione, tended to grow less and had reduced per capita interaction strength on their resources. Discussion Results suggested that phenotypic plasticity (i.e., reduction in adults’ body size allowed buffering biochemical responses to stress to scale-up at the assemblage level. Unveiling the linkages among different levels of biological organization is key to develop indicators that can anticipate large-scale ecological impacts of climate change.

  3. Distribution of lod scores in oligogenic linkage analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, J T; North, K E; Martin, L J; Comuzzie, A G; Göring, H H; Blangero, J

    2001-01-01

    In variance component oligogenic linkage analysis it can happen that the residual additive genetic variance bounds to zero when estimating the effect of the ith quantitative trait locus. Using quantitative trait Q1 from the Genetic Analysis Workshop 12 simulated general population data, we compare the observed lod scores from oligogenic linkage analysis with the empirical lod score distribution under a null model of no linkage. We find that zero residual additive genetic variance in the null model alters the usual distribution of the likelihood-ratio statistic.

  4. Data Linkage: A powerful research tool with potential problems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Scott Ian

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Policy makers, clinicians and researchers are demonstrating increasing interest in using data linked from multiple sources to support measurement of clinical performance and patient health outcomes. However, the utility of data linkage may be compromised by sub-optimal or incomplete linkage, leading to systematic bias. In this study, we synthesize the evidence identifying participant or population characteristics that can influence the validity and completeness of data linkage and may be associated with systematic bias in reported outcomes. Methods A narrative review, using structured search methods was undertaken. Key words "data linkage" and Mesh term "medical record linkage" were applied to Medline, EMBASE and CINAHL databases between 1991 and 2007. Abstract inclusion criteria were; the article attempted an empirical evaluation of methodological issues relating to data linkage and reported on patient characteristics, the study design included analysis of matched versus unmatched records, and the report was in English. Included articles were grouped thematically according to patient characteristics that were compared between matched and unmatched records. Results The search identified 1810 articles of which 33 (1.8% met inclusion criteria. There was marked heterogeneity in study methods and factors investigated. Characteristics that were unevenly distributed among matched and unmatched records were; age (72% of studies, sex (50% of studies, race (64% of studies, geographical/hospital site (93% of studies, socio-economic status (82% of studies and health status (72% of studies. Conclusion A number of relevant patient or population factors may be associated with incomplete data linkage resulting in systematic bias in reported clinical outcomes. Readers should consider these factors in interpreting the reported results of data linkage studies.

  5. Integrating climate change into habitat conservation plans under the U.S. endangered species act.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernazzani, Paola; Bradley, Bethany A; Opperman, Jeffrey J

    2012-06-01

    Habitat Conservation Plans (HCPs) under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) are an important mechanism for the acquisition of land and the management of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. HCPs have become a vital means of protecting endangered and threatened species and their habitats throughout the United States, particularly on private land. The scientific consensus that climate is changing and that these changes will impact the viability of species has not been incorporated into the conservation strategies of recent HCPs, rendering plans vulnerable biologically. In this paper we review the regulatory context for incorporating climate change into HCPs and analyze the extent to which climate change is linked to management actions in a subset of large HCPs. We conclude that most current plans do not incorporate climate change into conservation actions, and so we provide recommendations for integrating climate change into the process of HCP development and implementation. These recommendations are distilled from the published literature as well as the practice of conservation planning and are structured to the specific needs of HCP development and implementation. We offer nine recommendations for integrating climate change into the HCP process: (1) identify species at-risk from climate change, (2) explore new strategies for reserve design, (3) increase emphasis on corridors, linkages, and connectivity, (4) develop anticipatory adaptation measures, (5) manage for diversity, (6) consider assisted migration, (7) include climate change in scenarios of water management, (8) develop future-oriented management actions, and (9) increase linkages between the conservation strategy and adaptive management/monitoring programs.

  6. Young people's views about consenting to data linkage: findings from the PEARL qualitative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Audrey, Suzanne; Brown, Lindsey; Campbell, Rona; Boyd, Andy; Macleod, John

    2016-03-21

    from this study question the validity of 'informed consent' as a cornerstone of good governance, and the extent to which potential research participants understand different types of consent and what they are consenting, or not consenting, to. Pragmatic, imaginative and flexible approaches are needed if research using data linkage is to successfully realise its potential for public good without undermining public trust in the research process.

  7. Managing climate change refugia for climate adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toni Lyn Morelli; Christopher Daly; Solomon Z. Dobrowski; Deanna M. Dulen; Joseph L. Ebersole; Stephen T. Jackson; Jessica D. Lundquist; Connie Millar; Sean P. Maher; William B. Monahan; Koren R. Nydick; Kelly T. Redmond; Sarah C. Sawyer; Sarah Stock; Steven R. Beissinger

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that...

  8. Genome-wide linkage scan for colorectal cancer susceptibility genes supports linkage to chromosome 3q

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Velculescu Victor E

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Colorectal cancer is one of the most common causes of cancer-related mortality. The disease is clinically and genetically heterogeneous though a strong hereditary component has been identified. However, only a small proportion of the inherited susceptibility can be ascribed to dominant syndromes, such as Hereditary Non-Polyposis Colorectal Cancer (HNPCC or Familial Adenomatous Polyposis (FAP. In an attempt to identify novel colorectal cancer predisposing genes, we have performed a genome-wide linkage analysis in 30 Swedish non-FAP/non-HNPCC families with a strong family history of colorectal cancer. Methods Statistical analysis was performed using multipoint parametric and nonparametric linkage. Results Parametric analysis under the assumption of locus homogeneity excluded any common susceptibility regions harbouring a predisposing gene for colorectal cancer. However, several loci on chromosomes 2q, 3q, 6q, and 7q with suggestive linkage were detected in the parametric analysis under the assumption of locus heterogeneity as well as in the nonparametric analysis. Among these loci, the locus on chromosome 3q21.1-q26.2 was the most consistent finding providing positive results in both parametric and nonparametric analyses Heterogeneity LOD score (HLOD = 1.90, alpha = 0.45, Non-Parametric LOD score (NPL = 2.1. Conclusion The strongest evidence of linkage was seen for the region on chromosome 3. Interestingly, the same region has recently been reported as the most significant finding in a genome-wide analysis performed with SNP arrays; thus our results independently support the finding on chromosome 3q.

  9. Energy for climate in Europe. An assessment of energy policies with climate-relevance. The LinkS Project.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruud, Audun; Knudsen, Joergen K.; Jacobsen, Gerd B.

    2011-07-01

    The LinkS project aims at providing a better linkage between perspectives and projections for global climate policy development and regional energy systems, by linking relevant modelling tools. The present report provides a specific focus on energy policy measures within the EY with climate relevance. The EU has in recent years aimed at reinforcing the linkage between the climate and energy policies, both at strategic and operational levels. The EU has pledged itself to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions with 8 percent by 2008-12 as compared to the 1990 level, and by 20 percent by 2020 as compared to the as compared to the 2005 level. The EU-27 reduced it GHG emissions with 11,3 percent in 1990-2008. The 2020-target, however, will require stronger efforts and energy is a key sector: The EU has decided that 20 percent of the energy must be renewable, and that the energy usage in 2020 is to be 20 per sent more efficient than in 2005. A number of policy strategies, measures and legislation are formulated to fulfil these targets. In order to highlight the potential of these measures, this report specifically addresses the drivers and limitations given the existing decision-making structures in the EU. The methodology employed is mainly qualitative, based on document analysis and a review of secondary literature. Climate-change mitigation is in principle based on supra-national decision-making, but unanimity among all Eu Member States is still required in critical issues related to the energy sector. In addition, the national follow-up of the targets constitutes a particular challenge. This is here illustrated by the cases of Denmark and Norway. Energy policy is also substantially characterised by several conflicting interests between the Member States, resulting in diverging policy priorities. It is, therefore, an open question whether the EU will succeed in fulfilling its 20/20/20 percent targets by 2020, and will be the actual role of energy within the climate

  10. The GLOBE Carbon Cycle Project: Using a systems approach to understand carbon and the Earth's climate system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silverberg, S. K.; Ollinger, S. V.; Martin, M. E.; Gengarelly, L. M.; Schloss, A. L.; Bourgeault, J. L.; Randolph, G.; Albrechtova, J.

    2009-12-01

    National Science Content Standards identify systems as an important unifying concept across the K-12 curriculum. While this standard exists, there is a recognized gap in the ability of students to use a systems thinking approach in their learning. In a similar vein, both popular media as well as some educational curricula move quickly through climate topics to carbon footprint analyses without ever addressing the nature of carbon or the carbon cycle. If students do not gain a concrete understanding of carbon’s role in climate and energy they will not be able to successfully tackle global problems and develop innovative solutions. By participating in the GLOBE Carbon Cycle project, students learn to use a systems thinking approach, while at the same time, gaining a foundation in the carbon cycle and it's relation to climate and energy. Here we present the GLOBE Carbon Cycle project and materials, which incorporate a diverse set of activities geared toward upper middle and high school students with a variety of learning styles. A global carbon cycle adventure story and game let students see the carbon cycle as a complete system, while introducing them to systems thinking concepts including reservoirs, fluxes and equilibrium. Classroom photosynthesis experiments and field measurements of schoolyard vegetation brings the global view to the local level. And the use of computer models at varying levels of complexity (effects on photosynthesis, biomass and carbon storage in global biomes, global carbon cycle) not only reinforces systems concepts and carbon content, but also introduces students to an important scientific tool necessary for understanding climate change.

  11. Resource use, dependence and vulnerability: community-resource linkages on Alaska's Tongass National Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    E.T. Mekbeb; R.J. Lilieholm; D.J. Blahna; L.E. Kruger

    2009-01-01

    Understanding how rural communities use and depend upon local natural resources is a critical factor in developing policies to sustain the long-term viability of human and natural systems. Such “community-resource” linkages are particularly important in Alaska, where rural communities – many of them comprised of indigenous Alaskan Natives – are highly dependent upon...

  12. Bayesian linkage and segregation analysis: factoring the problem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthysse, S

    2000-01-01

    Complex segregation analysis and linkage methods are mathematical techniques for the genetic dissection of complex diseases. They are used to delineate complex modes of familial transmission and to localize putative disease susceptibility loci to specific chromosomal locations. The computational problem of Bayesian linkage and segregation analysis is one of integration in high-dimensional spaces. In this paper, three available techniques for Bayesian linkage and segregation analysis are discussed: Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), importance sampling, and exact calculation. The contribution of each to the overall integration will be explicitly discussed.

  13. Mobile assemblies of Bennett linkages from four-crease origami patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiao; Chen, Yan

    2018-02-01

    This paper deals with constructing mobile assemblies of Bennett linkages inspired by four-crease origami patterns. A transition technique has been proposed by taking the thick-panel form of an origami pattern as an intermediate bridge. A zero-thickness rigid origami pattern and its thick-panel form share the same sector angles and folding behaviours, while the thick-panel origami and the mobile assembly of linkages are kinematically equivalent with differences only in link profiles. Applying this transition technique to typical four-crease origami patterns, we have found that the Miura-ori and graded Miura-ori patterns lead to assemblies of Bennett linkages with identical link lengths. The supplementary-type origami patterns with different mountain-valley crease assignments correspond to different types of Bennett linkage assemblies with negative link lengths. And the identical linkage-type origami pattern generates a new mobile assembly. Hence, the transition technique offers a novel approach to constructing mobile assemblies of spatial linkages from origami patterns.

  14. Land - Ocean Climate Linkages and the Human Evolution - New ICDP and IODP Drilling Initiatives in the East African Rift Valley and SW Indian Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zahn, R.; Feibel, C.; Co-Pis, Icdp/Iodp

    2009-04-01

    enable us to establish the linkages between the ocean climatology of the SW Indian and terrestrial climates of Eastern Africa during key periods of global climate change. Combining the ICDP records of East African terrestrial climate at key hominin sites with IODP records of marine climate variability at the SE African continental margin will help to test if pulses of hominin evolutionary innovation were linked with periods of enhanced variability of local terrestrial environments and marine climatology of the Indian Ocean. * co-PIs of the ICDP initiative HSPDP are A.S. Cohen, R. Arrowsmith, A.K. Behrensmeyer, C. Feibel, R. Johnson, Z. Kubsa, D. Olago, R. Potts, R. Renaut * co-PIs of the IODP initiative SAFARI are R. Zahn, I. Hall, R. Schneider, M. Á. Bárcena, S. Barker, A. Biastoch, Chr. Charles, J. Compton, R. Cowling, P. Diz, L. Dupont, J.-A. Flores, S. Goldstein, S. Hemming, K. Holmgren, J. Lee-Thorp, G. Knorr, C. Lear, A. Mazaud, G. Mortyn, F. Peeters, B. Preu, R. Rickaby, J. Rogers, A. Rosell-Mele, Chr. Reason, V. Spiess, M. Trauth, G. Uenzelmann-Neben, S. Weldeab, P. Ziveri

  15. Dimensional threshold for fracture linkage and hooking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamarche, Juliette; Chabani, Arezki; Gauthier, Bertrand D. M.

    2018-03-01

    Fracture connectivity in rocks depends on spatial properties of the pattern including length, abundance and orientation. When fractures form a single-strike set, they hardly cross-cut each other and the connectivity is limited. Linkage probability increases with increasing fracture abundance and length as small fractures connect to each other to form longer ones. A process for parallel fracture linkage is the "hooking", where two converging fracture tips mutually deviate and then converge to connect due to the interaction of their crack-tip stresses. Quantifying the processes and conditions for fracture linkage in single-strike fracture sets is crucial to better predicting fluid flow in Naturally Fractured Reservoirs. For 1734 fractures in Permian shales of the Lodève Basin, SE France, we measured geometrical parameters in 2D, characterizing three stages of the hooking process: underlapping, overlapping and linkage. We deciphered the threshold values, shape ratios and limiting conditions to switch from one stage to another one. The hook set up depends on the spacing (S) and fracture length (Lh) with the relation S ≈ 0.15 Lh. Once the hooking is initiated, with the fracture deviation length (L) L ≈ 0.4 Lh, the fractures reaches the linkage stage only when the spacing is reduced to S ≈ 0.02 Lh and the convergence (C) is < 0.1 L. These conditions apply to multi-scale fractures with a shape ratio L/S = 10 and for fracture curvature of 10°-20°.

  16. The Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP) Program at NOAA - Observing and Understanding Processes Affecting the Propagation of Intraseasonal Oscillations in the Maritime Continent Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucas, S. E.

    2017-12-01

    The Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP) Program supports research aimed at providing process-level understanding of the climate system through observation, modeling, analysis, and field studies. This vital knowledge is needed to improve climate models and predictions so that scientists can better anticipate the impacts of future climate variability and change. To achieve its mission, the CVP Program supports research carried out at NOAA and other federal laboratories, NOAA Cooperative Institutes, and academic institutions. The Program also coordinates its sponsored projects with major national and international scientific bodies including the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), the International and U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR/US CLIVAR) Program, and the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The CVP program sits within NOAA's Climate Program Office (http://cpo.noaa.gov/CVP). In 2017, the CVP Program had a call for proposals focused on observing and understanding processes affecting the propagation of intraseasonal oscillations in the Maritime Continent region. This poster will present the recently funded CVP projects, the expected scientific outcomes, the geographic areas of their work in the Maritime Continent region, and the collaborations with the Office of Naval Research, Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) and other partners.

  17. Mapping of yield, yield stability, yield adaptability and other traits in barley using linkage disequilibrium mapping and linkage analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Kraakman, A.T.W.

    2005-01-01

    Plants is mostly done through linkage analysis. A segregating mapping population Identification and mappping of Quantitative Trait Loci (QTLs) in is created from a bi-parental cross and linkages between trait values and mapped markers reveal the positions ofQTLs. Inthisstudyweexploredlinkagedisequilibrium(LD)mappingof traits in a set of modernbarleycultivars. LDbetweenmolecularmarkerswasfoundup to a distance of 10 centimorgan,whichislargecomparedtootherspecies.Thelarge distancemightbeinducedb...

  18. Record linkage for pharmacoepidemiological studies in cancer patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herk-Sukel, Myrthe P P van; Lemmens, Valery E P P; Poll-Franse, Lonneke V van de; Herings, Ron M C; Coebergh, Jan Willem W

    2012-01-01

    An increasing need has developed for the post-approval surveillance of (new) anti-cancer drugs by means of pharmacoepidemiology and outcomes research in the area of oncology. To create an overview that makes researchers aware of the available database linkages in Northern America and Europe which facilitate pharmacoepidemiology and outcomes research in cancer patients. In addition to our own database, i.e. the Eindhoven Cancer Registry (ECR) linked to the PHARMO Record Linkage System, we considered database linkages between a population-based cancer registry and an administrative healthcare database that at least contains information on drug use and offers a longitudinal perspective on healthcare utilization. Eligible database linkages were limited to those that had been used in multiple published articles in English language included in Pubmed. The HMO Cancer Research Network (CRN) in the US was excluded from this review, as an overview of the linked databases participating in the CRN is already provided elsewhere. Researchers who had worked with the data resources included in our review were contacted for additional information and verification of the data presented in the overview. The following database linkages were included: the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End-Results-Medicare; cancer registry data linked to Medicaid; Canadian cancer registries linked to population-based drug databases; the Scottish cancer registry linked to the Tayside drug dispensing data; linked databases in the Nordic Countries of Europe: Norway, Sweden, Finland and Denmark; and the ECR-PHARMO linkage in the Netherlands. Descriptives of the included database linkages comprise population size, generalizability of the population, year of first data availability, contents of the cancer registry, contents of the administrative healthcare database, the possibility to select a cancer-free control cohort, and linkage to other healthcare databases. The linked databases offer a longitudinal

  19. Agriculture–Tourism Linkages in Botswana: Evidence from the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Tourism researchers are increasingly recognising that strengthened linkages between the sectors of tourism and agriculture are significant for maximising local multipliers and especially for pro-poor impacts. This article examines the linkages between the tourism and agriculture sectors in Botswana using evidence ...

  20. Managing living marine resources in a dynamic environment: The role of seasonal to decadal climate forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tommasi, Desiree; Stock, Charles A.; Hobday, Alistair J.; Methot, Rick; Kaplan, Isaac C.; Eveson, J. Paige; Holsman, Kirstin; Miller, Timothy J.; Gaichas, Sarah; Gehlen, Marion; Pershing, Andrew; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Msadek, Rym; Delworth, Tom; Eakin, C. Mark; Haltuch, Melissa A.; Séférian, Roland; Spillman, Claire M.; Hartog, Jason R.; Siedlecki, Samantha; Samhouri, Jameal F.; Muhling, Barbara; Asch, Rebecca G.; Pinsky, Malin L.; Saba, Vincent S.; Kapnick, Sarah B.; Gaitan, Carlos F.; Rykaczewski, Ryan R.; Alexander, Michael A.; Xue, Yan; Pegion, Kathleen V.; Lynch, Patrick; Payne, Mark R.; Kristiansen, Trond; Lehodey, Patrick; Werner, Francisco E.

    2017-03-01

    Recent developments in global dynamical climate prediction systems have allowed for skillful predictions of climate variables relevant to living marine resources (LMRs) at a scale useful to understanding and managing LMRs. Such predictions present opportunities for improved LMR management and industry operations, as well as new research avenues in fisheries science. LMRs respond to climate variability via changes in physiology and behavior. For species and systems where climate-fisheries links are well established, forecasted LMR responses can lead to anticipatory and more effective decisions, benefitting both managers and stakeholders. Here, we provide an overview of climate prediction systems and advances in seasonal to decadal prediction of marine-resource relevant environmental variables. We then describe a range of climate-sensitive LMR decisions that can be taken at lead-times of months to decades, before highlighting a range of pioneering case studies using climate predictions to inform LMR decisions. The success of these case studies suggests that many additional applications are possible. Progress, however, is limited by observational and modeling challenges. Priority developments include strengthening of the mechanistic linkages between climate and marine resource responses, development of LMR models able to explicitly represent such responses, integration of climate driven LMR dynamics in the multi-driver context within which marine resources exist, and improved prediction of ecosystem-relevant variables at the fine regional scales at which most marine resource decisions are made. While there are fundamental limits to predictability, continued advances in these areas have considerable potential to make LMR managers and industry decision more resilient to climate variability and help sustain valuable resources. Concerted dialog between scientists, LMR managers and industry is essential to realizing this potential.

  1. Climate Change in the US: Potential Consequences for Human Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maynard, Nancy G.

    2001-01-01

    The U.S. National Assessment identified five major areas of consequences of climate change in the United States: temperature-related illnesses and deaths, health effects related to extreme weather events, air pollution-related health effects, water- and food-borne diseases, and insect-, tick-, and rodent-borne diseases. The U.S. National Assessment final conclusions about these potential health effects will be described. In addition, a summary of some of the new tools for studying human health aspects of climate change as well as environment-health linkages through remotely sensed data and observations will be provided.

  2. The energy-climate continuum lessons from basic science and history

    CERN Document Server

    Bret, Antoine

    2014-01-01

    An entertaining, highly informative introduction to the intimate linkage between the energy and climate debates Illustrates the basic science behind energy and climate with back-of-the-envelope calculations, that even non-experts can easily follow without a calculator Thus provides an access to getting an accurate feeling for orders of magnitudes from simple estimations A conversation starter for some of the most debated topics of today Compares the actual situation with historic cases of societies at a turning point and finds warning as well as encouraging examples For everyone, who wan

  3. Availability of Insurance Linkage Programs in U.S. Emergency Departments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mia Kanak

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: As millions of uninsured citizens who use emergency department (ED services are now eligible for health insurance under the Affordable Care Act, the ED is ideally situated to facilitate linkage to insurance. Forty percent of U.S. EDs report having an insurance linkage program. This is the first national study to examine the characteristics of EDs that offer or do not offer these programs. Methods: This was a secondary analysis of data from the National Survey for Preventive Health Services in U.S. EDs conducted in 2008-09. We compared EDs with and without insurance programs across demographic and operational factors using univariate analysis. We then tested our hypotheses using multivariable logistic regression. We also further examined program capacity and priority among the sub-group of EDs with no insurance linkage program. Results: After adjustment, ED-insurance linkage programs were more likely to be located in the West (RR= 2.06, 95% CI = 1.33 – 2.72. The proportion of uninsured patients in an ED, teaching hospital status, and public ownership status were not associated with insurance linkage availability. EDs with linkage programs also offer more preventive services (RR = 1.87, 95% CI = 1.37–2.35 and have greater social worker availability (RR = 1.71, 95% CI = 1.12–2.33 than those who do not. Four of five EDs with a patient mix of ≥25% uninsured and no insurance linkage program reported that they could not offer a program with existing staff and funding. Conclusion: Availability of insurance linkage programs in the ED is not associated with the proportion of uninsured patients served by an ED. Policy or hospital-based interventions to increase insurance linkage should first target the 27% of EDs with high rates of uninsured patients that lack adequate program capacity. Further research on barriers to implementation and cost effectiveness may help to facilitate increased adoption of insurance linkage programs. [West J

  4. Genetic linkage of autosomal dominant progressive supranuclear palsy to 1q31.1.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ros, Raquel; Gómez Garre, Pilar; Hirano, Michio; Tai, Yen F; Ampuero, Israel; Vidal, Lídice; Rojo, Ana; Fontan, Aurora; Vazquez, Ana; Fanjul, Samira; Hernandez, Jaime; Cantarero, Susana; Hoenicka, Janet; Jones, Alison; Ahsan, R Laila; Pavese, Nicola; Piccini, Paola; Brooks, David J; Perez-Tur, Jordi; Nyggard, Torbjorn; de Yébenes, Justo G

    2005-05-01

    Progressive supranuclear palsy (PSP) is a disorder of unknown pathogenesis. Familial clusters of PSP have been reported related to mutations of protein tau. We report the linkage of a large Spanish family with typical autosomal dominant PSP to a new locus in chromosome 1. Four members of this family had typical PSP, confirmed by neuropathology in one case. At least five ancestors had similar disease. Other members of the family have incomplete phenotypes. The power of the linkage analysis was increased by detecting presymptomatic individuals with 18F-fluoro-dopa and 18F-deoxyglucose positron emission tomography. We screened the human genome with 340 polymorphic markers and we enriched the areas of interest with additional markers. The disease status was defined according to the clinical and positron emission tomography data. We excluded linkage to the tau gene in chromosome 17. PSP was linked, in this family, to one area of 3.4 cM in chromosome 1q31.1, with a maximal multipoint < OD score of +3.53. This area contains at least three genes, whose relevance in PSP is unknown. We expect to further define the gene responsible for PSP, which could help to understand the pathogenesis of this disease and to design effective treatment.

  5. Receptive Audiences for Climate Change Education: Understanding Attitudes and Barriers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, L. D.; Luebke, J. F.; Clayton, S.; Saunders, C. D.; Matiasek, J.; Grajal, A.

    2012-12-01

    Much effort has been devoted to finding ways to explain climate change to uninterested audiences and encourage mitigation behaviors among dismissive audiences. Most approaches have focused on conveying information about climate change processes or threats. Here we report the results of a national survey designed to characterize the readiness of zoo and aquarium visitors to engage with the issue of climate change. Two survey forms, one focused primarily on attitudes (N=3,594) and another on behaviors (N=3,588), were administered concurrently in summer 2011 at 15 Association of Zoos and Aquariums accredited institutions. The attitudes survey used Global Warming's Six Americas segmentation protocols (climatechangecommunication.org) to compare climate change attitudes of zoo and aquarium visitors with the American public (Leiserowitz et al., 2011). Our results reveal that visitors are receptive audiences for climate change education and want to do more to address climate change. Even these favorable audiences, however, perceive barriers to engaging in the issue, signifying the importance of meeting the learning needs of those who acknowledge anthropogenic climate change, and not only of climate change 'deniers.' While 39% of the general public is 'concerned' or 'alarmed' about global warming, 64% of zoo and aquarium visitors fall into these two "Six Americas" segments. Visitors also differ from the national sample in key attitudinal characteristics related to global warming. For example, nearly two-thirds believe human actions are related to global warming, versus less than one-half of the general public; and approximately 60% think global warming will harm them personally, moderately or a great deal, versus less than 30% of the general public. Moreover, 69% of visitors would like to do more to address climate change. Despite zoo and aquarium visitors' awareness of climate change and motivation to address it, survey results indicate they experience barriers to

  6. The role of groundwater in the effect of climatic warming on stream habitat of brook trout

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meisner, J.D.

    1990-01-01

    Freshwater fisheries are linked to climate through the variables of water temperature, water quality and water quantity. These three ecosystem linkages provide a basis for assessments of potential impacts of climate change on fisheries resources. A characteristic of fisheries resources, whether it be the size or distribution of fish populations, or a measure of yield, which can be related to climate through one or more of these linkages, is a useful tool with which to forecast the effects of climate change. A stream population of brook trout is a coldwater fisheries resource that is linked to climate by groundwater. Stream dwelling brook trout at low altitudes rely heavily on groundwater discharge in summer to maintain low stream temperature. Groundwater temperature tracks mean annual air temperature due to the insulative effect of the lower troposphere on the surface of the earth. The effect of elevated groundwater temperature on the stream habitat of brook trout was investigated in two brook trout streams north of Toronto, Ontario, with an energy balance stream temperature model, calibrated to both streams to simulate maximum water temperature observed in the brook trout zones. Simulated maximum summer temperatures from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies scenario reduced the brook trout zones by up to 42%. 17 refs., 2 figs

  7. Quantifying sources of bias in longitudinal data linkage studies of child abuse and neglect: measuring impact of outcome specification, linkage error, and partial cohort follow-up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parrish, Jared W; Shanahan, Meghan E; Schnitzer, Patricia G; Lanier, Paul; Daniels, Julie L; Marshall, Stephen W

    2017-12-01

    Health informatics projects combining statewide birth populations with child welfare records have emerged as a valuable approach to conducting longitudinal research of child maltreatment. The potential bias resulting from linkage misspecification, partial cohort follow-up, and outcome misclassification in these studies has been largely unexplored. This study integrated epidemiological survey and novel administrative data sources to establish the Alaska Longitudinal Child Abuse and Neglect Linkage (ALCANLink) project. Using these data we evaluated and quantified the impact of non-linkage misspecification and single source maltreatment ascertainment use on reported maltreatment risk and effect estimates. The ALCANLink project integrates the 2009-2011 Alaska Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System (PRAMS) sample with multiple administrative databases through 2014, including one novel administrative source to track out-of-state emigration. For this project we limited our analysis to the 2009 PRAMS sample. We report on the impact of linkage quality, cohort follow-up, and multisource outcome ascertainment on the incidence proportion of reported maltreatment before age 6 and hazard ratios of selected characteristics that are often available in birth cohort linkage studies of maltreatment. Failure to account for out-of-state emigration biased the incidence proportion by 12% (from 28.3% w to 25.2% w ), and the hazard ratio (HR) by as much as 33% for some risk factors. Overly restrictive linkage parameters biased the incidence proportion downwards by 43% and the HR by as much as 27% for some factors. Multi-source linkages, on the other hand, were of little benefit for improving reported maltreatment ascertainment. Using the ALCANLink data which included a novel administrative data source, we were able to observe and quantify bias to both the incidence proportion and HR in a birth cohort linkage study of reported child maltreatment. Failure to account for out

  8. Adapting to the impacts of climate change on food security among Inuit in the Western Canadian Arctic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wesche, Sonia D; Chan, Hing Man

    2010-09-01

    This study examined critical impacts of climate change on Inuit diet and nutritional health in four Inuit communities in the Inuvialuit Settlement Region, Western Arctic, Canada. The first objective was to combine data from community observation studies and dietary interview studies to determine potential climate change impacts on nutritional quality. The second objective was to address the scale of data collection and/or availability to compare local versus regional trends, and identify implications for adaptation planning. Information was compiled from 5 reports (4 community reports and 1 synthesis report) of climate change observations, impacts and adaptations in 12 Inuit communities (2005-2006), and from a dietary report of food use from 18 Inuit communities (1997-2000). Changing access to, availability of, quality of, and ability to use traditional food resources has implications for quality of diet. Nutritional implications of lower traditional food use include likely reductions in iron, zinc, protein, vitamin D, and omega-3 fatty acids, among others. The vulnerability of each community to changing food security is differentially influenced by a range of factors, including current harvesting trends, levels of reliance on individual species, opportunities for access to other traditional food species, and exposure to climate change hazards. Understanding linkages between climate change and traditional food security provides a basis for strengthening adaptive capacity and determining effective adaptation options to respond to future change.

  9. Linkages between organization climate and work outcomes: perceptual differences among health service professionals as a function of customer contact intensity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scotti, Dennis J; Harmon, Joel

    2014-01-01

    The delivery of high-quality service, rendered by health service professionals who interact with customers (patients), increases the likelihood that customers will form positive evaluations of the quality of their service encounters as well as high levels of customer satisfaction. Using linkage theory to develop our conceptual framework, we identify four clusters of variables which contribute to a chain of sequential events that connect organization climate to personal and operational work outcomes. We then examine the perceptual differences of service professionals, grouped by intensity of customer contact, with respect to these variables. National data for this project were obtained from multiple sources made available by the Veterans Healthcare Administration (VHA). Cross-group differences were tested using a series of variance analyses. The results indicate that level of customer-contact intensity plays a significant role in explaining variation in perceptions of support staff, clinical practitioners, and nurses at the multivariate and univariate levels of analysis. Contact intensity appears to be a core determinant of the nature of work performed by health service professionals as well as their psychological responses to organizational and customer-related dynamics. Health service professionals are important resources because of their specialized knowledge, labor expense, and scarcity. Based on findings from our research, managers are advised to survey employees' perceptions of their organizational environment and design practices that respond to the unique viewpoints of each of the professional groups identified in this study. Such tailoring should help executives maximize the value of investments in human resources by underwriting patient satisfaction and financial sustainability.

  10. [Linkage to care among new human immunodeficiency virus diagnoses in Spain].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliva, Jesús; Malo, Carmen; Fernández, Ana; Izquierdo, Ana; Marcos, Henar; Cevallos, Carlos; Castilla, Jesús; García, Rocio; Díez, Mercedes

    2014-03-01

    To describe linkage to care among new HIV diagnoses in Spain; and to estimate factors associated to linkage to care within three months after diagnosis. The distribution of the time elapsing between the date of HIV diagnosis and the date of first determination of CD4 (considered to be the date of linkage to care) was calculated among new HIV diagnoses in 2010 in the seven Autonomous Regions participating, where data on date of CD4 count was available. Linkage to care was considered «correct» if done within three months after diagnosis. Factors associated to correct linkage to care were estimated using logistic regression. A total of 1769 new HIV diagnoses were included. Of them, 83.1% had evidence of linkage to care within a year, and 75.7% were linked within three months after diagnosis. Being an injectable drug user (IDU) was the only factor inversely associated with linkage to care within 3 months (OR = 0.3; 95% CI: 0.2-0.6). In Spain linkage to care after HIV diagnosis is good, but there is still room for improvement, especially among IDUs. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier España, S.L. y Sociedad Española de Enfermedades Infecciosas y Microbiología Clínica. All rights reserved.

  11. Phase-Division-Based Dynamic Optimization of Linkages for Drawing Servo Presses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhi-Gang; Wang, Li-Ping; Cao, Yan-Ke

    2017-11-01

    Existing linkage-optimization methods are designed for mechanical presses; few can be directly used for servo presses, so development of the servo press is limited. Based on the complementarity of linkage optimization and motion planning, a phase-division-based linkage-optimization model for a drawing servo press is established. Considering the motion-planning principles of a drawing servo press, and taking account of work rating and efficiency, the constraints of the optimization model are constructed. Linkage is optimized in two modes: use of either constant eccentric speed or constant slide speed in the work segments. The performances of optimized linkages are compared with those of a mature linkage SL4-2000A, which is optimized by a traditional method. The results show that the work rating of a drawing servo press equipped with linkages optimized by this new method improved and the root-mean-square torque of the servo motors is reduced by more than 10%. This research provides a promising method for designing energy-saving drawing servo presses with high work ratings.

  12. Climate: from yesterday to tomorrow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Joussaume, S.

    1999-01-01

    Historical climatology and paleoclimatology aim at understanding the climatic memory of the Earth using geological and biological markers. These climate archives are used to understand the origins of climate changes in the past and to foresee the future climate changes according to the present day changes (global warming, greenhouse gases accumulation). (J.S.)

  13. Young people’s views about consenting to data linkage: findings from the PEARL qualitative study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suzanne Audrey

    2016-03-01

    with different scenarios, and were sometimes inconsistent. Conclusions Findings from this study question the validity of ‘informed consent’ as a cornerstone of good governance, and the extent to which potential research participants understand different types of consent and what they are consenting, or not consenting, to. Pragmatic, imaginative and flexible approaches are needed if research using data linkage is to successfully realise its potential for public good without undermining public trust in the research process.

  14. Addressing the climate change: sustainable development nexus: the role of multistakeholder partnerships

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pinkse, J.; Kolk, A.

    2012-01-01

    While calls are being made to deal with the linkages between climate change and sustainable development to arrive at an integrated policy, concrete steps in this direction have been very limited so far. One of the possible instruments through which both issues may be approached simultaneously is a

  15. Improving Climate Projections by Understanding How Cloud Phase affects Radiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cesana, Gregory; Storelvmo, Trude

    2017-01-01

    Whether a cloud is predominantly water or ice strongly influences interactions between clouds and radiation coming down from the Sun or up from the Earth. Being able to simulate cloud phase transitions accurately in climate models based on observational data sets is critical in order to improve confidence in climate projections, because this uncertainty contributes greatly to the overall uncertainty associated with cloud-climate feedbacks. Ultimately, it translates into uncertainties in Earth's sensitivity to higher CO2 levels. While a lot of effort has recently been made toward constraining cloud phase in climate models, more remains to be done to document the radiative properties of clouds according to their phase. Here we discuss the added value of a new satellite data set that advances the field by providing estimates of the cloud radiative effect as a function of cloud phase and the implications for climate projections.

  16. The potential impacts of climate variability and change on air pollution-related health effects in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernard, S M; Samet, J M; Grambsch, A; Ebi, K L; Romieu, I

    2001-05-01

    Climate change may affect exposures to air pollutants by affecting weather, anthropogenic emissions, and biogenic emissions and by changing the distribution and types of airborne allergens. Local temperature, precipitation, clouds, atmospheric water vapor, wind speed, and wind direction influence atmospheric chemical processes, and interactions occur between local and global-scale environments. If the climate becomes warmer and more variable, air quality is likely to be affected. However, the specific types of change (i.e., local, regional, or global), the direction of change in a particular location (i.e., positive or negative), and the magnitude of change in air quality that may be attributable to climate change are a matter of speculation, based on extrapolating present understanding to future scenarios. There is already extensive evidence on the health effects of air pollution. Ground-level ozone can exacerbate chronic respiratory diseases and cause short-term reductions in lung function. Exposure to particulate matter can aggravate chronic respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, alter host defenses, damage lung tissue, lead to premature death, and possibly contribute to cancer. Health effects of exposures to carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen dioxide can include reduced work capacity, aggravation of existing cardiovascular diseases, effects on pulmonary function, respiratory illnesses, lung irritation, and alterations in the lung's defense systems. Adaptations to climate change should include ensuring responsiveness of air quality protection programs to changing pollution levels. Research needs include basic atmospheric science work on the association between weather and air pollutants; improving air pollution models and their linkage with climate change scenarios; and closing gaps in the understanding of exposure patterns and health effects.

  17. ESCAPE. Energy Security and ClimAte Policy Evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kessels, J.R.; Bakker, S.J.A.

    2005-05-01

    Climate change and energy supply security policy are currently not integrated in most countries, despite possible synergies. The ESCAPE approach suggests that linking climate change policy with security of energy supply could improve climate change policy at both a national and international level. The report explores the interaction between policies of energy security and climate change and the options of inclusion of energy security issues into national and international post-2012 climate negotiations. It emphasises the importance of the US in this regard and takes a close look at US energy policy documents. It appears that current US energy policy is not directed towards reducing its reliance on imported fossil fuel, even though the government has a strong preference for this. This study shows that measures to reduce import dependency are mostly synergetic with climate policy and gives some options that can be implemented. On an international level, linkages of energy security into post-2012 climate policy may be possible in sectoral bottom-up approaches or technology frameworks. As well, inclusion of a security of supply criterion in international emission trading instruments may provide potential benefits

  18. The causality analysis of climate change and large-scale human crisis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, David D; Lee, Harry F; Wang, Cong; Li, Baosheng; Pei, Qing; Zhang, Jane; An, Yulun

    2011-10-18

    Recent studies have shown strong temporal correlations between past climate changes and societal crises. However, the specific causal mechanisms underlying this relation have not been addressed. We explored quantitative responses of 14 fine-grained agro-ecological, socioeconomic, and demographic variables to climate fluctuations from A.D. 1500-1800 in Europe. Results show that cooling from A.D. 1560-1660 caused successive agro-ecological, socioeconomic, and demographic catastrophes, leading to the General Crisis of the Seventeenth Century. We identified a set of causal linkages between climate change and human crisis. Using temperature data and climate-driven economic variables, we simulated the alternation of defined "golden" and "dark" ages in Europe and the Northern Hemisphere during the past millennium. Our findings indicate that climate change was the ultimate cause, and climate-driven economic downturn was the direct cause, of large-scale human crises in preindustrial Europe and the Northern Hemisphere.

  19. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    The concept of refugia has long been studied from theoretical and paleontological perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change ref...

  20. Effects of aquaculture researchers' job characteristics on linkage ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study examined the effects of researchers' job characteristics on linkage activities in Nigeria due to the fact that many fish farmers have not been properly reached with technologies and the problem of poor fish production has been attributed to the weak linkages existing between research, extension and fish farmers.

  1. Arctic adaptation and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agnew, T.A.; Headley, A.

    1994-01-01

    The amplification of climatic warming in the Arctic and the sensitivity of physical, biological, and human systems to changes in climate make the Arctic particularly vulnerable to climate changes. Large areas of the Arctic permafrost and sea ice are expected to disappear under climate warming and these changes will have considerable impacts on the natural and built environment of the north. A review is presented of some recent studies on what these impacts could be for the permafrost and sea ice environment and to identify linkages with socioeconomic activities. Terrestrial adaptation to climate change will include increases in ground temperature; melting of permafrost with consequences such as frost heave, mudslides, and substantial settlement; rotting of peat contained in permafrost areas, with subsequent emission of CO 2 ; increased risk of forest fire; and flooding of low-lying areas. With regard to the manmade environment, structures that will be affected include buildings, pipelines, highways, airports, mines, and railways. In marine areas, climate change will increase the ice-free period for marine transport operations and thus provide some benefit to the offshore petroleum industry. This benefit will be offset by increased wave height and period, and increased coastal erosion. The offshore industry needs to be particularly concerned with these impacts since the expected design life of industry facilities (30-60 y) is of the same order as the time frame for possible climatic changes. 18 refs., 5 figs

  2. Nature–society linkages in the Aral Sea region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristopher D. White

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Central Asia's Aral Sea crisis represents a disaster of monumental proportions, a tragedy for both the region's ecology and its human inhabitants. While the human and natural environments had operated in a sustainable co-joined system for millennia, Tsarist Russian expansion into Central Asia, followed by Soviet expansion of both the cotton industry and unsustainable irrigation practices to anchor it spelled doom for the Aral Sea. Today, many of the political and economic stimuli for such misguided practices continue, as do the continued retreat of the Sea and the proliferation of poor human health. The Aral Sea crisis has received ample scholarly attention, though somewhat surprising is a relative dearth of research explicitly investigating the nature, variety, and directionality of nature–society linkages today within the region. The purpose of this paper is to elucidate the contemporary nature–society linkages operating within the Aral Sea region of Central Asia. Historical nexuses will provide necessary background, and the linkages operating currently within the spheres of regional economy, human health, and political considerations will be detailed. Couching the current crisis within the framework of coupled human–environment system contexts reveals a region in which these linkages are largely inextricable. This paper concludes with a call for a reconsideration of the nature-society linkages and a greater emphasis placed on the local region's ecological and social sustainability.

  3. Intragroup Emotions: Physiological Linkage and Social Presence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Järvelä, Simo; Kätsyri, Jari; Ravaja, Niklas; Chanel, Guillaume; Henttonen, Pentti

    2016-01-01

    We investigated how technologically mediating two different components of emotion-communicative expression and physiological state-to group members affects physiological linkage and self-reported feelings in a small group during video viewing. In different conditions the availability of second screen text chat (communicative expression) and visualization of group level physiological heart rates and their dyadic linkage (physiology) was varied. Within this four person group two participants formed a physically co-located dyad and the other two were individually situated in two separate rooms. We found that text chat always increased heart rate synchrony but HR visualization only with non-co-located dyads. We also found that physiological linkage was strongly connected to self-reported social presence. The results encourage further exploration of the possibilities of sharing group member's physiological components of emotion by technological means to enhance mediated communication and strengthen social presence.

  4. Understanding safety climate in small automobile collision repair shops.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, David L; Brosseau, Lisa M; Bejan, Anca; Skan, Maryellen; Xi, Min

    2014-01-01

    In the United States, approximately 236,000 people work in 37,600 auto collision-repair businesses. Workers in the collision-repair industry may be exposed to a wide range of physical and chemical hazards. This manuscript examines the relationship of safety climate as reported by collision repair shop workers and owners to: (1) an independent business safety assessment, and (2) employee self-reported work practices. The study was conducted in the Twin Cities metropolitan area. A total of 199 workers from 49 collision shops completed a survey of self-reported work practices and safety climate. Surveys were completed by an owner or manager in all but three shops. In general, self-reported work practices were poor. Workers' scores on safety climate were uniformly lower than those of owners. For workers, there was no correlation between how well the business scored on an independent audit of business safety practices and the safety climate measures they reported. For owners, however, there was a positive correlation between safety climate scores and the business safety assessment. For workers, safety rules and procedures were associated with improved work practices for those engaged in both painting-related and body technician-related activities. The enforcement of safety rules and procedures emerged as a strong factor positively affecting self-reported work practices. These findings identify a simple, cost effective path to reducing hazards in small workplaces. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  5. A high-density SNP linkage scan with 142 combined subtype ADHD sib pairs identifies linkage regions on chromosomes 9 and 16.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asherson, P; Zhou, K; Anney, R J L; Franke, B; Buitelaar, J; Ebstein, R; Gill, M; Altink, M; Arnold, R; Boer, F; Brookes, K; Buschgens, C; Butler, L; Cambell, D; Chen, W; Christiansen, H; Feldman, L; Fleischman, K; Fliers, E; Howe-Forbes, R; Goldfarb, A; Heise, A; Gabriëls, I; Johansson, L; Lubetzki, I; Marco, R; Medad, S; Minderaa, R; Mulas, F; Müller, U; Mulligan, A; Neale, B; Rijsdijk, F; Rabin, K; Rommelse, N; Sethna, V; Sorohan, J; Uebel, H; Psychogiou, L; Weeks, A; Barrett, R; Xu, X; Banaschewski, T; Sonuga-Barke, E; Eisenberg, J; Manor, I; Miranda, A; Oades, R D; Roeyers, H; Rothenberger, A; Sergeant, J; Steinhausen, H-C; Taylor, E; Thompson, M; Faraone, S V

    2008-05-01

    As part of the International Multi-centre ADHD Genetics project we completed an affected sibling pair study of 142 narrowly defined Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, fourth edition combined type attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) proband-sibling pairs. No linkage was observed on the most established ADHD-linked genomic regions of 5p and 17p. We found suggestive linkage signals on chromosomes 9 and 16, respectively, with the highest multipoint nonparametric linkage signal on chromosome 16q23 at 99 cM (log of the odds, LOD=3.1) overlapping data published from the previous UCLA (University of California, Los Angeles) (LOD>1, approximately 95 cM) and Dutch (LOD>1, approximately 100 cM) studies. The second highest peak in this study was on chromosome 9q22 at 90 cM (LOD=2.13); both the previous UCLA and German studies also found some evidence of linkage at almost the same location (UCLA LOD=1.45 at 93 cM; German LOD=0.68 at 100 cM). The overlap of these two main peaks with previous findings suggests that loci linked to ADHD may lie within these regions. Meta-analysis or reanalysis of the raw data of all the available ADHD linkage scan data may help to clarify whether these represent true linked loci.

  6. Asian Financial Linkages: The Case of Japan

    OpenAIRE

    Fialová, Anežka

    2014-01-01

    This work reviews the topic of international financial linkages, including theoretical definitions and the main methodological approaches of the empirical measurement based on vector autoregressive models. One of the approaches, the Spillover Index methodology based on Diebold & Yilmaz (2009), is then used to analyze the developments of financial linkages of the Japanese stock market in the period from 1995 to 2012. The attention is paid both to the relations with western developed economies ...

  7. Nance-Horan syndrome: linkage analysis in a family from The Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bergen, A. A.; ten Brink, J.; Schuurman, E. J.; Bleeker-Wagemakers, E. M.

    1994-01-01

    Linkage analysis was carried out in a Dutch family with Nance-Horan (NH) syndrome. Close linkage without recombination between NH and the Xp loci DXS207, DXS43, and DXS365 (zmax = 3.23) was observed. Multipoint linkage analysis and the analysis of recombinations in multiple informative meioses

  8. Our Changing Climate: A Brand New Way to Study Climate Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brey, J. A.; Kauffman, C.; Geer, I.; Nugnes, K. A.; Mills, E. W.

    2014-12-01

    Earth's climate is inherently variable, but is currently changing at rates unprecedented in recent Earth history. Human activity plays a major role in this change and is projected to do so well into the future. This is the stance taken in Our Changing Climate, the brand new climate science ebook from the American Meteorological Society (AMS). Our Changing Climate investigates Earth's climate system, explores humans' impact on it, and identifies actions needed in response to climate change. Released in August 2014, Our Changing Climate is the result of a year's worth of intensive research and writing, incorporating the latest scientific understandings of Earth's climate system from reports such as IPCC AR5 and the Third National Climate Assessment. To encourage additional exploration of climate science information, scientific literature, from which chapter content was derived, is cited at the conclusion of each chapter. In addition, Topic In Depth sections appear throughout each chapter and lead to more extensive information related to various topics. For example, a Topic In Depth in Chapter 11 describes the effect of climate extremes on ranching enterprises in Nebraska. Climate science is multi-disciplinary and therefore Our Changing Climate covers a breadth of topics. From understanding basic statistics and geospatial tools used to investigate Earth's climate system to examining the psychological and financial reasons behind climate change denial, the AMS believes that a multi-disciplinary approach is the most effective way to increase climate literacy. Our Changing Climate is part of the AMS Climate Studies course which is intended for undergraduate-level students. Other course materials include an eInvestigations Manual and access to the RealTime Climate Portal, both of which provide weekly activities corresponding to that week's chapter content. The RealTime Climate Portal also has links to climate data as well as societal interactions and climate policy

  9. A genetic linkage map of sole (Solea solea: a tool for evolutionary and comparative analyses of exploited (flatfishes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eveline Diopere

    Full Text Available Linkage maps based on markers derived from genes are essential evolutionary tools for commercial marine fish to help identify genomic regions associated with complex traits and subject to selective forces at play during exploitation or selective breeding. Additionally, they allow the use of genomic information from other related species for which more detailed information is available. Sole (solea solea L. is a commercially important flatfish species in the North Sea, subject to overexploitation and showing evidence of fisheries-induced evolutionary changes in growth- and maturation-related traits. Sole would definitely benefit from a linkage map to better understand how evolution has shaped its genome structure. This study presents a linkage map of sole based on 423 single nucleotide polymorphisms derived from expressed sequence tags and 8 neutral microsatellite markers. The total map length is 1233.8 cM and consists of 38 linkage groups with a size varying between 0 to 92.1 cM. Being derived from expressed sequence tags allowed us to align the map with the genome of four model fish species, namely medaka (Oryzias latipes, Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus, three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus and green spotted pufferfish (Tetraodon nigroviridis. This comparison revealed multiple conserved syntenic regions with all four species, and suggested that the linkage groups represent 21 putative sole chromosomes. The map was also compared to the linkage map of turbot (Scophthalmus maximus, another commercially important flatfish species and closely related to sole. For all putative sole chromosomes (except one a turbot homolog was detected, confirming the even higher degree of synteny between these two flatfish species.

  10. Changes in forest biomass and linkage to climate and forest disturbances over Northeastern China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yuzhen; Liang, Shunlin

    2014-08-01

    The forests of northeastern China store nearly half of the country's total biomass carbon stocks. In this study, we investigated the changes in forest biomass by using satellite observations and found that a significant increase in forest biomass took place between 2001 and 2010. To determine the possible reasons for this change, several statistical methods were used to analyze the correlations between forest biomass dynamics and forest disturbances (i.e. fires, insect damage, logging, and afforestation and reforestation), climatic factors, and forest development. Results showed that forest development was the most important contributor to the increasing trend of forest biomass from 2001 to 2010, and climate controls were the secondary important factor. Among the four types of forest disturbance considered in this study, forest recovery from fires, and afforestation and reforestation during the past few decades played an important role in short-term biomass dynamics. This study provided observational evidence and valuable information for the relationships between forest biomass and climate as well as forest disturbances. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. VICI (Venus In Situ Composition Investigations): The Next Step in Understanding Venus Climate Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glaze, L. S.; Garvin, J. B.

    2017-12-01

    Venus provides a natural laboratory to explore an example of terrestrial planet evolution that may be cosmically ubiquitous. By better understanding the composition of the Venus atmosphere and surface, we can better constrain the efficiency of the Venusian greenhouse. VICI is a proposed NASA New Frontiers mission that delivers two landers to Venus on two separate Venus fly-bys. Following six orbital remote sensing missions to Venus (since 1978), VICI would be the first mission to land on the Venus surface since 1985, and the first U.S. mission to enter the Venus atmosphere in 49 years. The four major VICI science objectives are: Atmospheric origin and evolution: Understand the origin of the Venus atmosphere, how it has evolved, including how recently Venus lost its oceans, and how and why it is different from the atmospheres of Earth and Mars, through in situ measurements of key noble gases, nitrogen, and hydrogen. Atmospheric composition and structure: Reveal the unknown chemical processes and structure in Venus' deepest atmosphere that dominate the current climate through two comprehensive, in situ vertical profiles. Surface properties and geologic evolution: For the first time ever, explore the tessera from the surface, specifically to test hypotheses of ancient content-building cycles, erosion, and links to past climates using multi-point mineralogy, elemental chemistry, imaging and topography. Surface-atmosphere interactions: Characterize Venus' surface weathering environment and provide insight into the sulfur cycle at the surface-atmosphere interface by integrating rich atmospheric composition and structure datasets with imaging, surface mineralogy, and elemental rock composition. VICI is designed to study Venus' climate history through detailed atmospheric composition measurements not possible on earlier missions. In addition, VICI images the tessera surface during descent enabling detailed topography to be generated. Finally, VICI makes multiple elemental

  12. Validation of an instrument to measure inter-organisational linkages in general practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amoroso, Cheryl; Proudfoot, Judith; Bubner, Tanya; Jayasinghe, Upali W; Holton, Christine; Winstanley, Julie; Beilby, Justin; Harris, Mark F

    2007-12-03

    Linkages between general medical practices and external services are important for high quality chronic disease care. The purpose of this research is to describe the development, evaluation and use of a brief tool that measures the comprehensiveness and quality of a general practice's linkages with external providers for the management of patients with chronic disease. In this study, clinical linkages are defined as the communication, support, and referral arrangements between services for the care and assistance of patients with chronic disease. An interview to measure surgery-level (rather than individual clinician-level) clinical linkages was developed, piloted, reviewed, and evaluated with 97 Australian general practices. Two validated survey instruments were posted to patients, and a survey of locally available services was developed and posted to participating Divisions of General Practice (support organisations). Hypotheses regarding internal validity, association with local services, and patient satisfaction were tested using factor analysis, logistic regression and multilevel regression models. The resulting General Practice Clinical Linkages Interview (GP-CLI) is a nine-item tool with three underlying factors: referral and advice linkages, shared care and care planning linkages, and community access and awareness linkages. Local availability of chronic disease services has no affect on the comprehensiveness of services with which practices link, however, comprehensiveness of clinical linkages has an association with patient assessment of access, receptionist services, and of continuity of care in their general practice. The GP-CLI may be useful to researchers examining comparable health care systems for measuring the comprehensiveness and quality of linkages at a general practice-level with related services, possessing both internal and external validity. The tool can be used with large samples exploring the impact, outcomes, and facilitators of high

  13. Validation of an instrument to measure inter-organisational linkages in general practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheryl Amoroso

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Linkages between general medical practices and external services are important for high quality chronic disease care. The purpose of this research is to describe the development, evaluation and use of a brief tool that measures the comprehensiveness and quality of a general practice’s linkages with external providers for the management of patients with chronic disease. In this study, clinical linkages are defined as the communication, support, and referral arrangements between services for the care and assistance of patients with chronic disease. Methods: An interview to measure surgery-level (rather than individual clinician-level clinical linkages was developed, piloted, reviewed, and evaluated with 97 Australian general practices. Two validated survey instruments were posted to patients, and a survey of locally available services was developed and posted to participating Divisions of General Practice (support organisations. Hypotheses regarding internal validity, association with local services, and patient satisfaction were tested using factor analysis, logistic regression and multilevel regression models. Results: The resulting General Practice Clinical Linkages Interview (GP-CLI is a nine-item tool with three underlying factors: referral and advice linkages, shared care and care planning linkages, and community access and awareness linkages. Local availability of chronic disease services has no affect on the comprehensiveness of services with which practices link, however comprehensiveness of clinical linkages has an association with patient assessment of access, receptionist services, and of continuity of care in their general practice. Conclusions: The GP-CLI may be useful to researchers examining comparable health care systems for measuring the comprehensiveness and quality of linkages at a general practice-level with related services, possessing both internal and external validity. The tool can be used with large samples

  14. The Barley Chromosome 5 Linkage Map

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, J.; Jørgensen, Jørgen Helms

    1975-01-01

    The distances between nine loci on barley chromosome 5 have been studied in five two-point tests, three three-point tests, and one four-point test. Our previous chromosome 5 linkage map, which contained eleven loci mapped from literature data (Jensen and Jørgensen 1975), is extended with four loci......-position is fixed on the map by a locus (necl), which has a good marker gene located centrally in the linkage group. The positions of the other loci are their distances in centimorgans from the 0-position; loci in the direction of the short chromosome arm are assigned positive values and those...

  15. Climate change adaptation among Tibetan pastoralists: challenges in enhancing local adaptation through policy support.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Yao; Grumbine, R Edward; Wilkes, Andreas; Wang, Yun; Xu, Jian-Chu; Yang, Yong-Ping

    2012-10-01

    While researchers are aware that a mix of Local Ecological Knowledge (LEK), community-based resource management institutions, and higher-level institutions and policies can facilitate pastoralists' adaptation to climate change, policy makers have been slow to understand these linkages. Two critical issues are to what extent these factors play a role, and how to enhance local adaptation through government support. We investigated these issues through a case study of two pastoral communities on the Tibetan Plateau in China employing an analytical framework to understand local climate adaptation processes. We concluded that LEK and community-based institutions improve adaptation outcomes for Tibetan pastoralists through shaping and mobilizing resource availability to reduce risks. Higher-level institutions and policies contribute by providing resources from outside communities. There are dynamic interrelationships among these factors that can lead to support, conflict, and fragmentation. Government policy could enhance local adaptation through improvement of supportive relationships among these factors. While central government policies allow only limited room for overt integration of local knowledge/institutions, local governments often have some flexibility to buffer conflicts. In addition, government policies to support market-based economic development have greatly benefited adaptation outcomes for pastoralists. Overall, in China, there are still questions over how to create innovative institutions that blend LEK and community-based institutions with government policy making.

  16. Clause linkage in Ket

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nefedov, Andrey

    2015-01-01

    This work provides a typologically oriented description of clause linkage strategies in Ket, a highly endangered language spoken in Central Siberia. It is now the only surviving member of the Yeniseian language family with the last remaining speakers residing in the north of Russia’s Krasnoyarsk

  17. Natural versus anthropogenic climate change: Swedish farmers joint construction of climate perceptions

    OpenAIRE

    Asplund, Therese

    2016-01-01

    While previous research into understandings of climate change has usually examined general public perceptions, this study offers an audience-specific departure point. This article analyses how Swedish farmers perceive climate change and how they jointly shape their understandings. The agricultural sector is of special interest because it both contributes to and is directly affected by climate change. Through focus group discussions with Swedish farmers, this study finds that (1) farmers relat...

  18. Intragroup emotions: physiological linkage and social presence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simo eJärvelä

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available We investigated how technologically mediating two different components of emotion – communicative expression and physiological state – to group members affects physiological linkage and self-reported feelings in a small group during video viewing. In different conditions the availability of second screen text chat (communicative expression and visualization of group level physiological heart rates and their dyadic linkage (physiology was varied. Within this four person group two participants formed a physically co-located dyad and the other two were individually situated in two separate rooms. We found that text chat always increased heart rate synchrony but HR visualization only with non-co-located dyads. We also found that physiological linkage was strongly connected to self-reported social presence. The results encourage further exploration of the possibilities of sharing group member’s physiological components of emotion by technological means to enhance mediated communication and strengthen social presence.

  19. Intragroup Emotions: Physiological Linkage and Social Presence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Järvelä, Simo; Kätsyri, Jari; Ravaja, Niklas; Chanel, Guillaume; Henttonen, Pentti

    2016-01-01

    We investigated how technologically mediating two different components of emotion—communicative expression and physiological state—to group members affects physiological linkage and self-reported feelings in a small group during video viewing. In different conditions the availability of second screen text chat (communicative expression) and visualization of group level physiological heart rates and their dyadic linkage (physiology) was varied. Within this four person group two participants formed a physically co-located dyad and the other two were individually situated in two separate rooms. We found that text chat always increased heart rate synchrony but HR visualization only with non-co-located dyads. We also found that physiological linkage was strongly connected to self-reported social presence. The results encourage further exploration of the possibilities of sharing group member's physiological components of emotion by technological means to enhance mediated communication and strengthen social presence. PMID:26903913

  20. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daly, Christopher; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Dulen, Deanna M.; Ebersole, Joseph L.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Lundquist, Jessica D.; Millar, Constance I.; Maher, Sean P.; Monahan, William B.; Nydick, Koren R.; Redmond, Kelly T.; Sawyer, Sarah C.; Stock, Sarah; Beissinger, Steven R.

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change. PMID:27509088

  1. Managing climate change refugia for climate adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morelli, Toni L.; Jackson, Stephen T.

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change.

  2. Solid-Phase Synthesis of RNA Analogs Containing Phosphorodithioate Linkages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Xianbin

    2017-09-18

    The oligoribonucleotide phosphorodithioate (PS2-RNA) modification uses two sulfur atoms to replace two non-bridging oxygen atoms at an internucleotide phosphorodiester backbone linkage. Like a natural phosphodiester RNA backbone linkage, a PS2-modified backbone linkage is achiral at phosphorus. PS2-RNAs are highly stable to nucleases and several in vitro assays have demonstrated their biological activity. For example, PS2-RNAs silenced mRNA in vitro and bound to protein targets in the form of PS2-aptamers (thioaptamers). Thus, the interest in and promise of PS2-RNAs has drawn attention to synthesizing, isolating, and characterizing these compounds. RNA-thiophosphoramidite monomers are commercially available from AM Biotechnologies and this unit describes an effective methodology for solid-phase synthesis, deprotection, and purification of RNAs having PS2 internucleotide linkages. © 2017 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

  3. Climate fluctuations during the Holocene in NW Iberia: High and low latitude linkages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pena, L. D.; Francés, G.; Diz, P.; Esparza, M.; Grimalt, J. O.; Nombela, M. A.; Alejo, I.

    2010-07-01

    High resolution benthic foraminiferal stable isotopes (δ 18O, δ 13C) and molecular biomarkers in the sediments are used here to infer rapid climatic changes for the last 8200 years in the Ría de Muros (NW Iberian Margin). Benthic foraminiferal δ 18O and δ 13C potentially register migrations in the position of the hydrographic front formed between two different intermediate water masses: Eastern North Atlantic Central Water of subpolar origin (ENACW sp) and subtropical origin (ENACW st). The molecular biomarkers in the sediment show a strong coupling between continental organic matter inputs and negative δ 13C values in benthic foraminifera. The rapid centennial and millennial events registered in these records have been compared with two well known North Atlantic Holocene records from the subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SST) anomalies off Cape Blanc, NW Africa and the subpolar Atlantic (Hematite Stained Grains percentage, subpolar North Atlantic). Comparison supports a strong link between high- and low-latitude climatic perturbations at centennial-millennial time scales during the Holocene. Spectral analyses also points to a pole-to-equator propagation of the so-called 1500 yr cycles. Our results demonstrate that during the Holocene, the NW Iberian Margin has undergone a series of rapid events which are likely triggered at high latitudes in the North Atlantic and are rapidly propagated towards lower latitudes. Conceivably, the propagation of these rapid climatic changes involves a shift in atmospheric and oceanic circulatory systems.

  4. Fire, climate and vegetation linkages in the Bolivian Chiquitano seasonally dry tropical forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Power, M J; Whitney, B S; Mayle, F E; Neves, D M; de Boer, E J; Maclean, K S

    2016-06-05

    South American seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs) are critically endangered, with only a small proportion of their original distribution remaining. This paper presents a 12 000 year reconstruction of climate change, fire and vegetation dynamics in the Bolivian Chiquitano SDTF, based upon pollen and charcoal analysis, to examine the resilience of this ecosystem to drought and fire. Our analysis demonstrates a complex relationship between climate, fire and floristic composition over multi-millennial time scales, and reveals that moisture variability is the dominant control upon community turnover in this ecosystem. Maximum drought during the Early Holocene, consistent with regional drought reconstructions, correlates with a period of significant fire activity between 8000 and 7000 cal yr BP which resulted in a decrease in SDTF diversity. As fire activity declined but severe regional droughts persisted through the Middle Holocene, SDTFs, including Anadenanthera and Astronium, became firmly established in the Bolivian lowlands. The trend of decreasing fire activity during the last two millennia promotes the idea among forest ecologists that SDTFs are threatened by fire. Our analysis shows that the Chiquitano seasonally dry biome has been more resilient to Holocene changes in climate and fire regime than previously assumed, but raises questions over whether this resilience will continue in the future under increased temperatures and drought coupled with a higher frequency anthropogenic fire regime.This article is part of the themed issue 'The interaction of fire and mankind'. © 2016 The Author(s).

  5. Effects of Worldwide Population Subdivision on ALDH2 Linkage Disequilibrium

    OpenAIRE

    Peterson, Raymond J.; Goldman, David; Long, Jeffrey C.

    1999-01-01

    The effect of human population subdivision on linkage disequilibrium has previously been studied for unlinked genes. However, no study has focused on closely linked polymorphisms or formally partitioned linkage disequilibrium within and among worldwide populations. With an emphasis on population subdivision, the goal of this paper is to investigate the causes of linkage disequilibrium in ALDH2, the gene that encodes aldehyde dehydrogenase 2. Haplotypes for 756 people from 17 populations acros...

  6. Sinking into the Sea? Climate Change and AOSIS Strategies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Højland, Camille Marie Risager; Svendsen, Gert Tinggaard

    2017-01-01

    that a small actor like AOSIS plays in protecting the citizens of its member states rather than free ride on larger actors. Which strategies should AOSIS use to encourage an even more ambitious climate policy in the future? We suggest five relevant strategies: 1) Introduction of sanctions in the Paris...... Agreement, 2) A CO2 tax, 3) Subsidising new green technology, 4) That AOSIS should look for coalition partners, e.g. China, and 5) Even stronger focus on the linkage between climate change and future migration. Employing such strategies may save the SIDS from sinking into the sea and, at the same time......, secure the target level from the Paris Agreement....

  7. Changing seasonality of Arctic hydrology disrupts key biotic linkages in Arctic aquatic ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deegan, L.; MacKenzie, C.; Peterson, B. J.; Fishscape Project

    2011-12-01

    Arctic grayling (Thymallus arcticus) is an important circumpolar species that provide a model system for understanding the impacts of changing seasonality on arctic ecosystem function. Grayling serve as food for other biota, including lake trout, birds and humans, and act as top-down controls in stream ecosystems. In Arctic tundra streams, grayling spend their summers in streams but are obligated to move back into deep overwintering lakes in the fall. Climatic change that affects the seasonality of river hydrology could have a significant impact on grayling populations: grayling may leave overwintering lakes sooner in the spring and return later in the fall due to a longer open water season, but the migration could be disrupted by drought due to increased variability in discharge. In turn, a shorter overwintering season may impact lake trout dynamics in the lakes, which may rely on the seasonal inputs of stream nutrients in the form of migrating grayling into these oligotrophic lakes. To assess how shifting seasonality of Arctic river hydrology may disrupt key trophic linkages within and between lake and stream components of watersheds on the North Slope of the Brooks Mountain Range, Alaska, we have undertaken new work on grayling and lake trout population and food web dynamics. We use Passive Integrated Transponder (PIT) tags coupled with stream-width antenna units to monitor grayling movement across Arctic tundra watersheds during the summer, and into overwintering habitat in the fall. Results indicate that day length may prime grayling migration readiness, but that flooding events are likely the cue grayling use to initiate migration in to overwintering lakes. Many fish used high discharge events in the stream as an opportunity to move into lakes. Stream and lake derived stable isotopes also indicate that lake trout rely on these seasonally transported inputs of stream nutrients for growth. Thus, changes in the seasonality of river hydrology may have broader

  8. Data Linkage in VET Research: Opportunities, Challenges and Principles. Discussion Paper

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osborne, Kristen; Fowler, Craig; Circelli, Michelle

    2018-01-01

    This discussion paper explores the possibilities and risks that data linkage presents for the vocational education and training (VET) sector. Along with a broad overview of the nature of data linkage, it highlights possible applications for data linkage in the VET sector and examines the key challenges associated with its use. A number of case…

  9. Understanding Controversies in Urban Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baron, Nina; Petersen, Lars Kjerulf

    2015-01-01

    This article explores the controversies that exist in urban climate change adaptation and how these controversies influence the role of homeowners in urban adaptation planning. A concrete SUDS project in a housing cooperative in Copenhagen has been used as a case study thereby investigating the m...

  10. The safety climate of a Department of Energy nuclear facility: A sociotechnical analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, A.E.; Harbour, J.L.

    1993-01-01

    Government- and public-sponsored groups are increasingly demanding greater accountability by the Department of Energy's weapons complex. Many of these demands have focused on the development of a positive safety climate, one that not only protects workers onsite, but also the surrounding populace and environment as well. These demands are, in part, a response to findings which demonstrate a close linkage between actual organizational safety performance and the organization's safety climate, i.e., the collective attitudes employees hold concerning the level of safety in their organization. This paper describes the approach taken in the systematic assessment of the safety climate at EG ampersand G Rocky Flats Plant (RFP)

  11. Arctic-midlatitude weather linkages in North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overland, James E.; Wang, Muyin

    2018-06-01

    There is intense public interest in whether major Arctic changes can and will impact midlatitude weather such as cold air outbreaks on the central and east side of continents. Although there is progress in linkage research for eastern Asia, a clear gap is conformation for North America. We show two stationary temperature/geopotential height patterns where warmer Arctic temperatures have reinforced existing tropospheric jet stream wave amplitudes over North America: a Greenland/Baffin Block pattern during December 2010 and an Alaska Ridge pattern during December 2017. Even with continuing Arctic warming over the past decade, other recent eastern US winter months were less susceptible for an Arctic linkage: the jet stream was represented by either zonal flow, progressive weather systems, or unfavorable phasing of the long wave pattern. The present analysis lays the scientific controversy over the validity of linkages to the inherent intermittency of jet stream dynamics, which provides only an occasional bridge between Arctic thermodynamic forcing and extended midlatitude weather events.

  12. A microsatellite linkage map of Drosophila mojavensis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schully Sheri

    2004-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Drosophila mojavensis has been a model system for genetic studies of ecological adaptation and speciation. However, despite its use for over half a century, no linkage map has been produced for this species or its close relatives. Results We have developed and mapped 90 microsatellites in D. mojavensis, and we present a detailed recombinational linkage map of 34 of these microsatellites. A slight excess of repetitive sequence was observed on the X-chromosome relative to the autosomes, and the linkage groups have a greater recombinational length than the homologous D. melanogaster chromosome arms. We also confirmed the conservation of Muller's elements in 23 sequences between D. melanogaster and D. mojavensis. Conclusions The microsatellite primer sequences and localizations are presented here and made available to the public. This map will facilitate future quantitative trait locus mapping studies of phenotypes involved in adaptation or reproductive isolation using this species.

  13. High-frequency stock linkage and multi-dimensional stationary processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xi; Bao, Si; Chen, Jingchao

    2017-02-01

    In recent years, China's stock market has experienced dramatic fluctuations; in particular, in the second half of 2014 and 2015, the market rose sharply and fell quickly. Many classical financial phenomena, such as stock plate linkage, appeared repeatedly during this period. In general, these phenomena have usually been studied using daily-level data or minute-level data. Our paper focuses on the linkage phenomenon in Chinese stock 5-second-level data during this extremely volatile period. The method used to select the linkage points and the arbitrage strategy are both based on multi-dimensional stationary processes. A new program method for testing the multi-dimensional stationary process is proposed in our paper, and the detailed program is presented in the paper's appendix. Because of the existence of the stationary process, the strategy's logarithmic cumulative average return will converge under the condition of the strong ergodic theorem, and this ensures the effectiveness of the stocks' linkage points and the more stable statistical arbitrage strategy.

  14. The double tragedy of agriculture vulnerability to climate variability in Africa: How vulnerable is smallholder agriculture to rainfall variability in Ghana?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emmanuel K. Derbile

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This article analysed vulnerability of smallholder agriculture to climate variability, particularly the alternating incidences of drought and heavy precipitation events in Ghana. Although there is an unmet need for understanding the linkages between climate change and livelihoods, the urgent need for climate change adaptation planning (CCAP in response to climate change makes vulnerability assessment even more compelling in development research. The data for analysis were collected from two complementary studies. These included a regional survey in the Upper West Region and an in-depth study in three selected communities in the Sissala East District. The results showed that smallholder agriculture is significantly vulnerable to climate variability in the region and that three layers of vulnerability can be identified in a ladder of vulnerability. Firstly, farmers are confronted with the double tragedy of droughts and heavy precipitation events, which adversely affect both crops and livestock. Secondly, farmers have to decide on crops for adaptation, but each option – whether indigenous crops, new early-maturing crops or genetically modified crops – predisposes farmers to a different set of risks. Finally, the overall impact is a higher-level vulnerability, namely the risk of total livelihood failure and food insecurity. The article recommended CCAP and an endogenous development (ED approach to addressing agriculture vulnerability to climate variability within the framework of decentralisation and local governance in Ghana. Keywords: Climate variability; agriculture; vulnerability; endogenous development; Ghana

  15. Linkage strategies for successful and sustainable partnerships: a practical framework for community engagement by palliative care services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenberg, John

    2018-01-01

    Partnerships are central to the success of linkages between palliative care services and the communities they support. The goal of partnership is to achieve more than individuals and groups can achieve on their own, yet the concept is often poorly understood. A clearly articulated understanding of partnership is a powerful step in transforming an organization's engagement with the community. The aim of this workshop is to enable participants to gain a clear understanding of partnership, understand the recognized evidence-based principles of establishing and maintaining partnerships, and identify practical approaches to partnering to take back to their organizations and communities.

  16. Autosomal dominant distal myopathy: Linkage to chromosome 14

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laing, N.G.; Laing, B.A.; Wilton, S.D.; Dorosz, S.; Mastaglia, F.L.; Kakulas, B.A. [Australian Neuromuscular Research Institute, Perth (Australia); Robbins, P.; Meredith, C.; Honeyman, K.; Kozman, H.

    1995-02-01

    We have studied a family segregating a form of autosomal dominant distal myopathy (MIM 160500) and containing nine living affected individuals. The myopathy in this family is closest in clinical phenotype to that first described by Gowers in 1902. A search for linkage was conducted using microsatellite, VNTR, and RFLP markers. In total, 92 markers on all 22 autosomes were run. Positive linkage was obtained with 14 of 15 markers tested on chromosome 14, with little indication of linkage elsewhere in the genome. Maximum two-point LOD scores of 2.60 at recombination fraction .00 were obtained for the markers MYH7 and D14S64 - the family structure precludes a two-point LOD score {ge} 3. Recombinations with D14S72 and D14S49 indicate that this distal myopathy locus, MPD1, should lie between these markers. A multipoint analysis assuming 100% penetrance and using the markers D14S72, D14S50, MYH7, D14S64, D14S54, and D14S49 gave a LOD score of exactly 3 at MYH7. Analysis at a penetrance of 80% gave a LOD score of 2.8 at this marker. This probable localization of a gene for distal myopathy, MPD1, on chromosome 14 should allow other investigators studying distal myopathy families to test this region for linkage in other types of the disease, to confirm linkage or to demonstrate the likely genetic heterogeneity. 24 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab.

  17. New climate on the Earth: understanding, predicting, reacting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Le Treut, H.

    2009-01-01

    The objective of the Copenhagen meeting was to recast the Kyoto protocol, to widen it to all countries, to find a global agreement for the aid to vulnerable populations and for the abatement of greenhouse gases both from industrialized and emerging countries, including the USA and China. Scientific research has revealed the huge complexity of the climate machine and the difficulty to predict its evolution. What will be the sea level in 2100, the pressure on coastal areas, the expansion of desertification, the evolution of glaciers? Today no quantification is possible but it is demonstrated that our greenhouse gas emissions are responsible for the climate change, that this change is already irreversible and will affect all natural environments, and that a warming up greater than 2 deg. C will make climate evolution out of control. In this book, the author lists the actions to implement urgently: significantly reducing greenhouse gas emissions, implementing energy saving policies, limiting fossil fuels consumption, developing alternate energies, capturing and sequestering the CO 2 of thermal plants. We just have few decades in front of us to reduce the extent of the changes in progress and to be prepared to face the ensuing new inequalities. (J.S.)

  18. The linkage between geopotential height and monthly precipitation in Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shirvani, Amin; Fadaei, Amir Sabetan; Landman, Willem A.

    2018-04-01

    This paper investigates the linkage between large-scale atmospheric circulation and monthly precipitation during November to April over Iran. Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) is used to set up the statistical linkage between the 850 hPa geopotential height large-scale circulation and monthly precipitation over Iran for the period 1968-2010. The monthly precipitation dataset for 50 synoptic stations distributed in different climate regions of Iran is considered as the response variable in the CCA. The monthly geopotential height reanalysis dataset over an area between 10° N and 60° N and from 20° E to 80° E is utilized as the explanatory variable in the CCA. Principal component analysis (PCA) as a pre-filter is used for data reduction for both explanatory and response variables before applying CCA. The optimal number of principal components and canonical variables to be retained in the CCA equations is determined using the highest average cross-validated Kendall's tau value. The 850 hPa geopotential height pattern over the Red Sea, Saudi Arabia, and Persian Gulf is found to be the major pattern related to Iranian monthly precipitation. The Pearson correlation between the area averaged of the observed and predicted precipitation over the study area for Jan, Feb, March, April, November, and December months are statistically significant at the 5% significance level and are 0.78, 0.80, 0.82, 0.74, 0.79, and 0.61, respectively. The relative operating characteristic (ROC) indicates that the highest scores for the above- and below-normal precipitation categories are, respectively, for February and April and the lowest scores found for December.

  19. Predicting plant diversity patterns in Madagascar: understanding the effects of climate and land cover change in a biodiversity hotspot.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kerry A Brown

    Full Text Available Climate and land cover change are driving a major reorganization of terrestrial biotic communities in tropical ecosystems. In an effort to understand how biodiversity patterns in the tropics will respond to individual and combined effects of these two drivers of environmental change, we use species distribution models (SDMs calibrated for recent climate and land cover variables and projected to future scenarios to predict changes in diversity patterns in Madagascar. We collected occurrence records for 828 plant genera and 2186 plant species. We developed three scenarios, (i.e., climate only, land cover only and combined climate-land cover based on recent and future climate and land cover variables. We used this modelling framework to investigate how the impacts of changes to climate and land cover influenced biodiversity across ecoregions and elevation bands. There were large-scale climate- and land cover-driven changes in plant biodiversity across Madagascar, including both losses and gains in diversity. The sharpest declines in biodiversity were projected for the eastern escarpment and high elevation ecosystems. Sharp declines in diversity were driven by the combined climate-land cover scenarios; however, there were subtle, region-specific differences in model outputs for each scenario, where certain regions experienced relatively higher species loss under climate or land cover only models. We strongly caution that predicted future gains in plant diversity will depend on the development and maintenance of dispersal pathways that connect current and future suitable habitats. The forecast for Madagascar's plant diversity in the face of future environmental change is worrying: regional diversity will continue to decrease in response to the combined effects of climate and land cover change, with habitats such as ericoid thickets and eastern lowland and sub-humid forests particularly vulnerable into the future.

  20. A Collaborative Proposal: Simulating and Understanding Abrupt Climate-Ecosystem Changes During Holocene with NCAR-CCSM3.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhengyu Liu, Bette Otto-Bliesner

    2013-02-01

    We have made significant progress in our proposed work in the last 4 years (3 years plus 1 year of no cost extension). In anticipation of the next phase of study, we have spent time on the abrupt changes since the last glacial maximum. First, we have performed further model-data comparison based on our baseline TRACE-21 simulation and made important progress towards the understanding of several major climate transitions. Second, we have made a significant effort in processing the model output of TRACE-21 and have put this output on a website for access by the community. Third, we have completed many additional sensitivity experiments. In addition, we have organized synthesis workshops to facilitate and promote transient model-data comparison for the international community. Finally, we have identified new areas of interest for Holocene climate changes.

  1. School Climate Coordinators in Chile: Understanding their Labor Identity

    OpenAIRE

    Valenzuela, Jaime; Ahumada, Iván; Rubilar, Andrea; López, Verónica; Urbina, Carolina

    2017-01-01

    Addressing school climate and violence in schools requires school management skills. The 2011 School Violence Act in Chile promulgated the mandatory creation of the school climate coordinator (SCC). However, the law did not establish a defined profile, specific functions, or working hours for the SCC, and only recently have school administrators given SCCs more time for this position. This has created a flexible operating framework for the position, which could have implications in terms of t...

  2. Wildland fire emissions, carbon, and climate: Wildfire–climate interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yongqiang Liu; Scott Goodrick; Warren Heilman

    2014-01-01

    Increasing wildfire activity in recent decades, partially related to extended droughts, along with concern over potential impacts of future climate change on fire activity has resulted in increased attention on fire–climate interactions. Findings from studies published in recent years have remarkably increased our understanding of fire–climate interactions and improved...

  3. Evaluating the effects of ideology on public understanding of climate change science: how to improve communication across ideological divides?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zia, Asim; Todd, Anne Marie

    2010-11-01

    While ideology can have a strong effect on citizen understanding of science, it is unclear how ideology interacts with other complicating factors, such as college education, which influence citizens' comprehension of information. We focus on public understanding of climate change science and test the hypotheses: [H1] as citizens' ideology shifts from liberal to conservative, concern for global warming decreases; [H2] citizens with college education and higher general science literacy tend to have higher concern for global warming; and [H3] college education does not increase global warming concern for conservative ideologues. We implemented a survey instrument in California's San Francisco Bay Area, and employed regression models to test the effects of ideology and other socio-demographic variables on citizen concern about global warming, terrorism, the economy, health care and poverty. We are able to confirm H1 and H3, but reject H2. Various strategies are discussed to improve the communication of climate change science across ideological divides.

  4. Impacts of the Climate Change on Agricultural Food Security, Traditional Knowledge and Agroecology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Murat Türkeş

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses mainly on both impacts of the climate change on agriculture and food security, and multidisciplinary scientific assessment and recommendations for sustainable agro ecological solutions including traditional knowledge responding to these impacts. The climate change will very likely affect four key dimensions of the food security including availability, accessibility, utilization and sustainability of the food, due to close linkage between food and water security and climate change. In one of the most comprehensive model studies simulating impacts of global climate change on agriculture to date, it was estimated that by 2080, in a business-as-usual scenario, climate change will reduce the potential output of global agriculture by more than 3.2 per cent. Furthermore, developing countries will suffer the most with a potential 9.1 per cent decline in agricultural output, for example with a considerable decrease of 16.6 per cent in Africa. Some comprehensive studies pointed out also that all regions may experience significant decreases in crop yields as well as significant increases, depending on emission scenarios and the assumptions on effectiveness of carbon dioxide (CO2 fertilization. One of the tools that would ensure the food security by making use of local sources and traditional knowledge is agroecology. Agroecology would contribute to mitigation of the anthropogenic climate change and cooling down the Earth’s increasing surface and lower atmospheric air temperatures, because it is mainly labour-intensive and requires little uses of fossil fuels, energy and artificial fertilisers. It is also necessary to understand the ecological mechanisms underlying sustainability of traditional farming systems, and to translate them into ecological principles that make locally available and appropriate approaches and techniques applicable to a large number of farmers.

  5. Lessons on climate sensitivity from past climate changes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    von der Heydt, A.S.; Dijkstra, H.A.; van de Wal, R.S.W.; Caballero, R.; Crucifix, M.; Foster, G.L.; Huber, M.; Kohler, P.; Rohling, E.; Valdes, P.J.; Ashwin, P.; Bathiany, S.; Berends, T.; van Bree, L.G.J.; Ditlevsen, P.; Ghil, M.; Haywood, A.; Katzav, J.K.; Lohmann, G.; Lohmann, J.; Lucarini, V.; Marzocchi, A.; Palike, H.; Ruvalcaba Baroni, I.; Simon, D.; Sluijs, A.; Stap, L.B.; Tantet, A.; Viebahn, J.; Ziegler, M.

    2016-01-01

    Over the last decade, our understanding of climate sensitivity has improved considerably. The climate system shows variability on many timescales, is subject to non-stationary forcing and it is most likely out of equilibrium with the changes in the radiative forcing. Slow and fast feedbacks

  6. The Dependencies of Ecosystem Pattern, Structure, and Dynamics on Climate, Climate Variability, and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flanagan, S.; Hurtt, G. C.; Fisk, J. P.; Rourke, O.

    2012-12-01

    A robust understanding of the sensitivity of the pattern, structure, and dynamics of ecosystems to climate, climate variability, and climate change is needed to predict ecosystem responses to current and projected climate change. We present results of a study designed to first quantify the sensitivity of ecosystems to climate through the use of climate and ecosystem data, and then use the results to test the sensitivity of the climate data in a state-of the art ecosystem model. A database of available ecosystem characteristics such as mean canopy height, above ground biomass, and basal area was constructed from sources like the National Biomass and Carbon Dataset (NBCD). The ecosystem characteristics were then paired by latitude and longitude with the corresponding climate characteristics temperature, precipitation, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and dew point that were retrieved from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). The average yearly and seasonal means of the climate data, and their associated maximum and minimum values, over the 1979-2010 time frame provided by NARR were constructed and paired with the ecosystem data. The compiled results provide natural patterns of vegetation structure and distribution with regard to climate data. An advanced ecosystem model, the Ecosystem Demography model (ED), was then modified to allow yearly alterations to its mechanistic climate lookup table and used to predict the sensitivities of ecosystem pattern, structure, and dynamics to climate data. The combined ecosystem structure and climate data results were compared to ED's output to check the validity of the model. After verification, climate change scenarios such as those used in the last IPCC were run and future forest structure changes due to climate sensitivities were identified. The results of this study can be used to both quantify and test key relationships for next generation models. The sensitivity of ecosystem characteristics to climate data

  7. Climate change, economics and Buddhism. Part 2. New views and practices for sustainable world economies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daniels, Peter L.

    2010-01-01

    The evidence of impending and serious climate and other consequences of an expanding world economy based on fossil carbon energy continues to accumulate. This two-part paper examines the potential contribution of the world view and insights of Buddhism to this search. It presents both a conceptual and practical case that Buddhism can help shape and move towards an alternative and effective paradigmatic basis for sustainable economies - one capable of bringing about and maintaining genuine, high welfare levels across the world's societies. The first paper outlined a comprehensive analytical framework to identify the fundamental nature of anthropogenic climate change. Based on the integration of two of the most influential environmental analysis tools of recent decades (the DPSIR model and IPAT equation), the framework was then broadened to facilitate ideas from the Buddhist world view by injecting two key missing aspects - the interrelated role of (1) beliefs and values (on goals and behavior) and (2) the nature of well-being or human happiness. Finally, the principal linkages between this climate change analysis framework and Buddhism were explored. In this concluding paper, the systems framework is used to demonstrate how Buddhist and related world views can feed into appropriate and effective responses to the impending challenges of climate change. This is undertaken by systematically presenting a specific, if indicative, list of relevant strategies informed by the understanding of interconnectedness and other basic principles about the nature of reality and human well-being as proposed in Buddhism. (author)

  8. Climate change, economics and Buddhism. Part 2. New views and practices for sustainable world economies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daniels, Peter L. [Griffith School of Environment, Griffith University, Brisbane, 4111 (Australia)

    2010-03-15

    The evidence of impending and serious climate and other consequences of an expanding world economy based on fossil carbon energy continues to accumulate. This two-part paper examines the potential contribution of the world view and insights of Buddhism to this search. It presents both a conceptual and practical case that Buddhism can help shape and move towards an alternative and effective paradigmatic basis for sustainable economies - one capable of bringing about and maintaining genuine, high welfare levels across the world's societies. The first paper outlined a comprehensive analytical framework to identify the fundamental nature of anthropogenic climate change. Based on the integration of two of the most influential environmental analysis tools of recent decades (the DPSIR model and IPAT equation), the framework was then broadened to facilitate ideas from the Buddhist world view by injecting two key missing aspects - the interrelated role of (1) beliefs and values (on goals and behavior) and (2) the nature of well-being or human happiness. Finally, the principal linkages between this climate change analysis framework and Buddhism were explored. In this concluding paper, the systems framework is used to demonstrate how Buddhist and related world views can feed into appropriate and effective responses to the impending challenges of climate change. This is undertaken by systematically presenting a specific, if indicative, list of relevant strategies informed by the understanding of interconnectedness and other basic principles about the nature of reality and human well-being as proposed in Buddhism. (author)

  9. Planning for the Maintenance of Floristic Diversity in the Face of Land Cover and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jewitt, Debbie; Goodman, Peter S.; Erasmus, Barend F. N.; O'Connor, Timothy G.; Witkowski, Ed T. F.

    2017-05-01

    Habitat loss and climate change are primary drivers of global biodiversity loss. Species will need to track changing environmental conditions through fragmented and transformed landscapes such as KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Landscape connectivity is an important tool for maintaining resilience to global change. We develop a coarse-grained connectivity map between protected areas to aid decision-making for implementing corridors to maintain floristic diversity in the face of global change. The spatial location of corridors was prioritised using a biological underpinning of floristic composition that incorporated high beta diversity regions, important plant areas, climate refugia, and aligned to major climatic gradients driving floristic pattern. We used Linkage Mapper to develop the connectivity network. The resistance layer was based on land-cover categories with natural areas discounted according to their contribution towards meeting the biological objectives. Three corridor maps were developed; a conservative option for meeting minimum corridor requirements, an optimal option for meeting a target amount of 50% of the landscape and an option including linkages in highly transformed areas. The importance of various protected areas and critical linkages in maintaining landscape connectivity are discussed, disconnected protected areas and pinch points identified where the loss of small areas could compromise landscape connectivity. This framework is suggested as a way to conserve floristic diversity into the future and is recommended as an approach for other global connectivity initiatives. A lack of implementation of corridors will lead to further habitat loss and fragmentation, resulting in further risk to plant diversity.

  10. Young people’s views about consenting to data linkage: Findings from the PEARL qualitative study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suzanne Audrey

    2017-04-01

    Findings from this study question the validity of ‘informed consent’ as a cornerstone of good governance, and the extent to which potential research participants understand different types of consent and what they are consenting, or not consenting, to. Pragmatic, imaginative and flexible approaches are needed if research using data linkage is to successfully realise its potential for public good without undermining public trust in the research process.

  11. Effective Climate Refugia for Cold-water Fishes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebersole, J. L.; Morelli, T. L.; Torgersen, C.; Isaak, D.; Keenan, D.; Labiosa, R.; Fullerton, A.; Massie, J.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change threatens to create fundamental shifts in in the distributions and abundances of endothermic organisms such as cold-water salmon and trout species (salmonids). Recently published projected declines in mid-latitude salmonid distributions under future climates range from modest to severe, depending on modeling approaches, assumptions, and spatial context of analyses. Given these projected losses, increased emphasis on management for ecosystem resilience to help buffer cold-water fish populations and their habitats against climate change is emerging. Using terms such as "climate-proofing", "climate-ready", and "climate refugia", such efforts stake a claim for an adaptive, anticipatory planning response to the climate change threat. To be effective, such approaches will need to address critical uncertainties in both the physical basis for projected landscape changes in water temperature and streamflow, as well as the biological responses of organisms. Recent efforts define future potential climate refugia based on projected streamflows, air temperatures, and associated water temperature changes. These efforts reflect the relatively strong conceptual foundation for linkages between regional climate change and local hydrological responses and thermal dynamics. Yet important questions remain. Drawing on case studies throughout the Pacific Northwest, we illustrate some key uncertainties in the responses of salmonids and their habitats to altered hydro-climatic regimes currently not well addressed by physical or ecological models. Key uncertainties include biotic interactions, organismal adaptive capacity, local climate decoupling due to groundwater-surface water interactions, the influence of human engineering responses, and synergies between climatic and other stressors. These uncertainties need not delay anticipatory planning, but rather highlight the need for identification and communication of actions with high probabilities of success, and targeted

  12. Comparison of hybrid spectral-decomposition artificial neural network models for understanding climatic forcing of groundwater levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abrokwah, K.; O'Reilly, A. M.

    2017-12-01

    Groundwater is an important resource that is extracted every day because of its invaluable use for domestic, industrial and agricultural purposes. The need for sustaining groundwater resources is clearly indicated by declining water levels and has led to modeling and forecasting accurate groundwater levels. In this study, spectral decomposition of climatic forcing time series was used to develop hybrid wavelet analysis (WA) and moving window average (MWA) artificial neural network (ANN) models. These techniques are explored by modeling historical groundwater levels in order to provide understanding of potential causes of the observed groundwater-level fluctuations. Selection of the appropriate decomposition level for WA and window size for MWA helps in understanding the important time scales of climatic forcing, such as rainfall, that influence water levels. Discrete wavelet transform (DWT) is used to decompose the input time-series data into various levels of approximate and details wavelet coefficients, whilst MWA acts as a low-pass signal-filtering technique for removing high-frequency signals from the input data. The variables used to develop and validate the models were daily average rainfall measurements from five National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration (NOAA) weather stations and daily water-level measurements from two wells recorded from 1978 to 2008 in central Florida, USA. Using different decomposition levels and different window sizes, several WA-ANN and MWA-ANN models for simulating the water levels were created and their relative performances compared against each other. The WA-ANN models performed better than the corresponding MWA-ANN models; also higher decomposition levels of the input signal by the DWT gave the best results. The results obtained show the applicability and feasibility of hybrid WA-ANN and MWA-ANN models for simulating daily water levels using only climatic forcing time series as model inputs.

  13. Support for global climate reorganization during the ''Medieval Climate Anomaly''

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Graham, N.E. [Hydrologic Research Center, San Diego, CA (United States); Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA (United States); Ammann, C.M. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Fleitmann, D. [University of Bern, Institute of Geological Sciences, Bern (Switzerland); University of Bern, Oeschger Centre for Climatic Change Research, Bern (Switzerland); Cobb, K.M. [Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA (United States); Luterbacher, J. [Justus-Liebig-University, Giessen (Germany)

    2011-09-15

    Widely distributed proxy records indicate that the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; {proportional_to}900-1350 AD) was characterized by coherent shifts in large-scale Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation patterns. Although cooler sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific can explain some aspects of medieval circulation changes, they are not sufficient to account for other notable features, including widespread aridity through the Eurasian sub-tropics, stronger winter westerlies across the North Atlantic and Western Europe, and shifts in monsoon rainfall patterns across Africa and South Asia. We present results from a full-physics coupled climate model showing that a slight warming of the tropical Indian and western Pacific Oceans relative to the other tropical ocean basins can induce a broad range of the medieval circulation and climate changes indicated by proxy data, including many of those not explained by a cooler tropical Pacific alone. Important aspects of the results resemble those from previous simulations examining the climatic response to the rapid Indian Ocean warming during the late twentieth century, and to results from climate warming simulations - especially in indicating an expansion of the Northern Hemisphere Hadley circulation. Notably, the pattern of tropical Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) change responsible for producing the proxy-model similarity in our results agrees well with MCA-LIA SST differences obtained in a recent proxy-based climate field reconstruction. Though much remains unclear, our results indicate that the MCA was characterized by an enhanced zonal Indo-Pacific SST gradient with resulting changes in Northern Hemisphere tropical and extra-tropical circulation patterns and hydroclimate regimes, linkages that may explain the coherent regional climate shifts indicated by proxy records from across the planet. The findings provide new perspectives on the nature and possible causes of the MCA

  14. A novel linkage map of sugarcane with evidence for clustering of retrotransposon-based markers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Palhares Alessandra C

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The development of sugarcane as a sustainable crop has unlimited applications. The crop is one of the most economically viable for renewable energy production, and CO2 balance. Linkage maps are valuable tools for understanding genetic and genomic organization, particularly in sugarcane due to its complex polyploid genome of multispecific origins. The overall objective of our study was to construct a novel sugarcane linkage map, compiling AFLP and EST-SSR markers, and to generate data on the distribution of markers anchored to sequences of scIvana_1, a complete sugarcane transposable element, and member of the Copia superfamily. Results The mapping population parents (‘IAC66-6’ and ‘TUC71-7’ contributed equally to polymorphisms, independent of marker type, and generated markers that were distributed into nearly the same number of co-segregation groups (or CGs. Bi-parentally inherited alleles provided the integration of 19 CGs. The marker number per CG ranged from two to 39. The total map length was 4,843.19 cM, with a marker density of 8.87 cM. Markers were assembled into 92 CGs that ranged in length from 1.14 to 404.72 cM, with an estimated average length of 52.64 cM. The greatest distance between two adjacent markers was 48.25 cM. The scIvana_1-based markers (56 were positioned on 21 CGs, but were not regularly distributed. Interestingly, the distance between adjacent scIvana_1-based markers was less than 5 cM, and was observed on five CGs, suggesting a clustered organization. Conclusions Results indicated the use of a NBS-profiling technique was efficient to develop retrotransposon-based markers in sugarcane. The simultaneous maximum-likelihood estimates of linkage and linkage phase based strategies confirmed the suitability of its approach to estimate linkage, and construct the linkage map. Interestingly, using our genetic data it was possible to calculate the number of retrotransposon scIvana_1 (~60

  15. Construction of a reference genetic linkage map for carnation (Dianthus caryophyllus L.).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yagi, Masafumi; Yamamoto, Toshiya; Isobe, Sachiko; Hirakawa, Hideki; Tabata, Satoshi; Tanase, Koji; Yamaguchi, Hiroyasu; Onozaki, Takashi

    2013-10-26

    Genetic linkage maps are important tools for many genetic applications including mapping of quantitative trait loci (QTLs), identifying DNA markers for fingerprinting, and map-based gene cloning. Carnation (Dianthus caryophyllus L.) is an important ornamental flower worldwide. We previously reported a random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD)-based genetic linkage map derived from Dianthus capitatus ssp. andrezejowskianus and a simple sequence repeat (SSR)-based genetic linkage map constructed using data from intraspecific F2 populations; however, the number of markers was insufficient, and so the number of linkage groups (LGs) did not coincide with the number of chromosomes (x = 15). Therefore, we aimed to produce a high-density genetic map to improve its usefulness for breeding purposes and genetic research. We improved the SSR-based genetic linkage map using SSR markers derived from a genomic library, expression sequence tags, and RNA-seq data. Linkage analysis revealed that 412 SSR loci (including 234 newly developed SSR loci) could be mapped to 17 linkage groups (LGs) covering 969.6 cM. Comparison of five minor LGs covering less than 50 cM with LGs in our previous RAPD-based genetic map suggested that four LGs could be integrated into two LGs by anchoring common SSR loci. Consequently, the number of LGs corresponded to the number of chromosomes (x = 15). We added 192 new SSRs, eight RAPD, and two sequence-tagged site loci to refine the RAPD-based genetic linkage map, which comprised 15 LGs consisting of 348 loci covering 978.3 cM. The two maps had 125 SSR loci in common, and most of the positions of markers were conserved between them. We identified 635 loci in carnation using the two linkage maps. We also mapped QTLs for two traits (bacterial wilt resistance and anthocyanin pigmentation in the flower) and a phenotypic locus for flower-type by analyzing previously reported genotype and phenotype data. The improved genetic linkage maps and SSR markers developed

  16. On the mechanisms of warming the mid-Pliocene and the inference of a hierarchy of climate sensitivities with relevance to the understanding of climate futures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Chandan

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available We present results from our investigation into the physical mechanisms through which the mid-Pliocene, with a pCO2 of only  ∼  400 ppmv, could have supported the same magnitude of global warmth as has been projected for the climate at the end of the 21st century when pCO2 is expected to be 3 times higher. These mechanisms allow us to understand the warming in terms of changes to the radiative properties of the surface, the clouds, greenhouse gases, and changes to the meridional heat transport. We find that two-thirds of the warming pervasive during the mid-Pliocene, compared to the preindustrial, could be attributed to the reduction in the planetary emissivity owing to the higher concentrations of the greenhouse gases CO2 and water vapor, and the remaining one-third to the reduction in planetary albedo. We also find that changes to the orography and the pCO2 are the leading causes of the warming with each contributing in roughly equal parts to a total of 87 % of the warming and changes to the polar ice sheets responsible for the remaining warming. Furthermore, we provide a mid-Pliocene perspective on ongoing efforts to understand the climate system's sensitivity at various timescales and using multiple lines of evidence. The similarities in the boundary conditions between the mid-Pliocene and the present day, together with the globally elevated temperatures, make the mid-Pliocene an ideal paleo time period from which to derive inferences of climate sensitivity and assess the impacts of various timescale-dependent feedback processes. We assess a hierarchy of climate sensitivities of increasing complexity in order to explore the response of the climate over a very large range of timescales. The picture that emerges is as follows: on the short timescale, owing to the influence of fast feedback processes, the climate sensitivity is 3.25 °C per doubling of CO2; sensitivity increases to 4.16 °C per doubling of CO2 on an intermediate

  17. Climatic Change and the Classroom: A Teaching Aid to Understanding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanders, C. Gerald

    Equable climates with mild winters and summers are more likely to maintain snow or ice cover in high latitudes than extreme climates having colder winters and hotter summers. A simplified version of the Milankovitch cycles can be used to develop a model instructors can use in their classes to illustrate the orbital variations producing either…

  18. An Agenda for Climate Impacts Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaye, J. A.

    2009-12-01

    The report Global Change Impacts in the United States released by the US Global Change Research Program in June 2009 identifies a number of areas in which inadequate information or understanding hampers our ability to estimate likely future climate change and its impacts. In this section of the report, the focus is on those areas of climate science that could contribute most towards advancing our knowledge of climate change impacts and those aspects of climate change responsible for these impacts in order to continue to guide decision making. The Report identifies the six most important gaps in knowledge and offers some thoughts on how to address those gaps: 1. Expand our understanding of climate change impacts. There is a clear need to increase understanding of how ecosystems, social and economic systems, human health, and the built environment will be affected by climate change in the context of other stresses. 2. Refine ability to project climate change, including extreme events, at local scales. While climate change is a global issue, it has a great deal of regional variability. There is an indisputable need to improve understanding of climate system effects at these smaller scales, because these are often the scales of decision-making in society. This includes advances in modeling capability and observations needed to address local scales and high-impact extreme events. 3. Expand capacity to provide decision makers and the public with relevant information on climate change and its impacts. Significant potential exists in the US to create more comprehensive measurement, archive, and data-access systems that could provide great benefit to society, which requires defining needed information, gathering it, expanding capacity to deliver it, and improving tools by which decision makers use it to best advantage. 4. Improve understanding of thresholds likely to lead to abrupt changes in climate or ecosystems. Potential areas of research include thresholds that could

  19. Does Climate Care about Land?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawson, E.; Lague, M. M.; Swann, A. L. S.

    2017-12-01

    Everyone knows that plants are influenced by the climate they live in. However, the reverse is also true: plants can influence climate both locally and globally by changing atmospheric circulation. Uncovering the role that plants play in climate has been challenging—the interactions are complex and vary greatly in different regions of the world. We lack a systematic understanding of the role of vegetation in the climate system. Using a new simplified land model coupled to a modern Earth System Model (ESM), we are able to separate the individual influences of the land system in the context of modern ESMs. For example, with our model we are able to test how the capacity of the land to hold water influences the atmosphere. If less water is able to evaporate, this could lead to substantial warming, and could even influence clouds. Understanding specifically where and how the atmosphere is influenced by the land surface improves our understanding of how future changes in the land surface will in turn feedback on climate, and how that will impact people. This improved understanding also advances our knowledge of the key role biology plays in driving the global climate system.

  20. STAKEHOLDER LINKAGES FOR SUSTAINABLE LAND ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Osondu

    Key words: Stakeholders; farmer-expert linkages; resource management; Ethiopia. Introduction ... decentralized democratic decision making processes and thus ..... district offices within the given time limits. They were often .... -less willing and less ready to hearing weaker performance reports (expect more success with ...

  1. ANALISIS KEBIJAKAN LINKAGE PROGRAM LEMBAGA KEUANGAN SYARIAH DALAM RANGKA PEMBERDAYAAN UKM DI INDONESIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Siti Hamidah

    2016-03-01

    Linkage program adalah program yang menghubungkan bank dengan pelaku usaha mikro kecil melalui lembaga keuangan mikro. Kelemahan dalam Linkage program adalah pada aspek peraturan yang tersebar dalam berbagai aturan, dan khusus bagi lembaga keuangan syariah terdapat pula kendala berkaitan dengan kesesuaian dengan ketentuan syariah. Dari penelitian dengan pendekatan perundang-undangan dan pendekatan konseptual ini diperoleh inventarisasi serta analisis kebijakan Linkage Program bagi Lembaga Keuangan Syariah dalam hukum positif Indonesia. Kebijakan terkait Linkage program, diklasifikasi dalam 2 kelompok, yaitu kebijakan substansi dan prosedural. Aturan inilah yang menjadi rujukan bagi lembaga keuangan syariah rangka pemberdayaan usaha kecil mikro di Indonesia. Kata kunci: Linkage program, lembaga keuangan syariah, usaha mikro kecil

  2. Electrostatic microactuators with integrated gear linkages for mechanical power transmission

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Legtenberg, R.; Legtenberg, Rob; Berenschot, Johan W.; Elwenspoek, Michael Curt; Fluitman, J.H.J.

    1996-01-01

    In this paper a surface micromachining process is presented which has been used to fabricate electrostatic microactuators that are interconnected with each other and linked to other movable microstructures by integrated gear linkages. The gear linkages consist of rotational and linear gear

  3. Connecting stakeholders and climate science: A summary of farmer, rancher, and forester climate data needs and climate change attitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    The mission of the USDA Southwest Regional Climate Hub is to provide farmers, ranchers and forest land owners and managers with information and resources to cope with the impacts of climate change. As such, a clear understanding of landowner needs for weather and climate data and their attitudes abo...

  4. Science Teachers' Perspectives about Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawson, Vaille

    2012-01-01

    Climate change and its effects are likely to present challenging problems for future generations of young people. It is important for Australian students to understand the mechanisms and consequences of climate change. If students are to develop a sophisticated understanding, then science teachers need to be well-informed about climate change…

  5. Linkages between Alaskan sockeye salmon abundance, growth at sea, and climate, 1955-2002

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruggerone, G.T.; Nielsen, J.L.; Bumgarner, J.

    2007-01-01

    We tested the hypothesis that increased growth of salmon during early marine life contributed to greater survival and abundance of salmon following the 1976/1977 climate regime shift and that this, in turn, led to density-dependent reductions in growth during late marine stages. Annual measurements of Bristol Bay (Bering Sea) and Chignik (Gulf of Alaska) sockeye salmon scale growth from 1955 to 2002 were used as indices of body growth. During the first and second years at sea, growth of both stocks tended to be higher after the 1976-1977 climate shift, whereas growth during the third year and homeward migration was often below average. Multiple regression models indicated that return per spawner of Bristol Bay sockeye salmon and adult abundance of western and central Alaska sockeye salmon were positively correlated with growth during the first 2 years at sea and negatively correlated with growth during later life stages. After accounting for competition between Bristol Bay sockeye and Asian pink salmon, age-specific adult length of Bristol Bay salmon increased after the 1976-1977 regime shift, then decreased after the 1989 climate shift. Late marine growth and age-specific adult length of Bristol Bay salmon was exceptionally low after 1989, possibly reducing their reproductive potential. These findings support the hypothesis that greater marine growth during the first 2 years at sea contributed to greater salmon survival and abundance, which in turn led to density-dependent growth during later life stages when size-related mortality was likely lower. Our findings provide new evidence supporting the importance of bottom-up control in marine ecosystems and highlight the complex dynamics of species interactions that continually change as salmon grow and mature in the ocean. ?? 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Spin Transfer in Polymer Degradation of Abnormal Linkage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Tianrong; Tian, Chuanjin; Liu, Xizhe; Wang, Jia; Gao, Yang; Wang, Zhigang

    2017-07-01

    The degradation of polymer materials plays an important role in production and life. In this work, the degradation mechanism of poly-α-methylstyrene (PAMS) tetramers with abnormal linkage was investigated by using density functional theory (DFT). Calculated results indicate that the head-to-head and the tail-to-tail reactions needed to overcome the energy barriers are about 0.15 eV and about 1.26 eV, respectively. The broken C-C bond at the unsaturated end of the chain leads to the dissociation of alpha-methylstyrene (AMS) monomers one by one. Furthermore, the analyses of bond characteristics are in good agreement with the results of energy barriers. In addition, the spin population analysis presents an interesting net spin transfer process in depolymerization reactions. We hope that the current theoretical results provide useful help to understand the degradation mechanism of polymers.

  7. Climate stories: Why do climate scientists and sceptical voices participate in the climate debate?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharman, Amelia; Howarth, Candice

    2017-10-01

    Public perceptions of the climate debate predominantly frame the key actors as climate scientists versus sceptical voices; however, it is unclear why climate scientists and sceptical voices choose to participate in this antagonistic and polarised public battle. A narrative interview approach is used to better understand the underlying rationales behind 22 climate scientists' and sceptical voices' engagement in the climate debate, potential commonalities, as well as each actor's ability to be critically self-reflexive. Several overlapping rationales are identified including a sense of duty to publicly engage, agreement that complete certainty about the complex assemblage of climate change is unattainable and that political factors are central to the climate debate. We argue that a focus on potential overlaps in perceptions and rationales as well as the ability to be critically self-reflexive may encourage constructive discussion among actors previously engaged in purposefully antagonistic exchange on climate change.

  8. An Approach to Understanding Complex Socio-Economic Impacts and Responses to Climate Disruption in the Chesapeake Bay Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaefer, R. K.; Nix, M.; Ihde, A. G.; Paxton, L. J.; Weiss, M.; Simpkins, S.; Fountain, G. H.; APl GAIA Team

    2011-12-01

    In this paper we describe the application of a proven methodology for modeling the complex social and economic interactions of a system under stress to the regional issues that are tied to global climate disruption. Under the auspices of the GAIA project (http://gaia.jhuapl.edu), we have investigated simulating the complex interplay between climate, politics, society, industry, and the environment in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed and associated geographic areas of Maryland, Virginia, and Pennsylvania. This Chesapeake Bay simulation draws on interrelated geophysical and climate models to support decision-making analysis about the Bay. In addition to physical models, however, human activity is also incorporated via input and output calculations. For example, policy implications are modeled in relation to business activities surrounding fishing, farming, industry and manufacturing, land development, and tourism. This approach fosters collaboration among subject matter experts to advance a more complete understanding of the regional impacts of climate change. Simulated interactive competition, in which teams of experts are assigned conflicting objectives in a controlled environment, allow for subject exploration which avoids trivial solutions that neglect the possible responses of affected parties. Results include improved planning, the anticipation of areas of conflict or high risk, and the increased likelihood of developing mutually acceptable solutions.

  9. The use of podcasts to enhance research-teaching linkages in undergraduate nursing students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strickland, Karen; Gray, Colin; Hill, Gordon

    2012-07-01

    An understanding of research is important to enable nurses to provide evidence-based care. However, undergraduate nursing students often find research a challenging subject. The purpose of this paper is to present an evaluation of the introduction of podcasts in an undergraduate research module to enhance research-teaching linkages between the theoretical content and research in practice and improve the level of student support offered in a blended learning environment. Two cohorts of students (n=228 and n=233) were given access to a series of 5 "guest speaker" podcasts made up of presentations and interviews with research experts within Edinburgh Napier. These staff would not normally have contact with students on this module, but through the podcasts were able to share their research expertise and methods with our learners. The main positive results of the podcasts suggest the increased understanding achieved by students due to the multi-modal delivery approach, a more personal student/tutor relationship leading to greater engagement, and the effective use of materials for revision and consolidation purposes. Negative effects of the podcasts centred around problems with the technology, most often difficulty in downloading and accessing the material. This paper contributes to the emerging knowledge base of podcasting in nurse education by demonstrating how podcasts can be used to enhance research-teaching linkages and raises the question of why students do not exploit the opportunities for mobile learning. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Heritability and whole genome linkage of pulse pressure in Chinese twin pairs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jiang, Wengjie; Zhang, Dongfeng; Pang, Zengchang

    2012-01-01

    with a heritability estimate of 0.45. Genome-wide non-parametric linkage analysis identified three significant linkage peaks on chromosome 11 (lod score 4.06 at 30.5 cM), chromosome 12 (lod score 3.97 at 100.7 cM), and chromosome 18 (lod score 4.01 at 70.7 cM) with the last two peaks closely overlapping with linkage...

  11. EDITORIAL Development Linkages between Tree Breeding ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    EDITORIAL Development Linkages between Tree Breeding Programmes and National/Regional Tree Seed Centres in Africa. ... Discovery and Innovation. Journal Home · ABOUT THIS JOURNAL · Advanced Search · Current Issue · Archives.

  12. Entrepreneurship And Business Management - Exploring Linkages For Sustainable Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dr Serah K Mbetwa

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Entrepreneurs have emerged as market leaders in todays business world amidst the numerous economic turmoil constantly affecting economies on a global scale. This research paper is on entrepreneurship and business management and its linkages to other business stakeholders. The research paper therefore discusses entrepreneurship and business management exploring the linkages to available financing and potential institutions for startup capital by linking entrepreneurs to the government financiers and the public clientele. It is believed that this can bring about achievement of sustainable development goals translating into sustainable development and hence economic growth. The idea of funding is echoed by Robert Rice 2016 An entrepreneur without funding is like a musician with no instruments. Sustainability and entrepreneurship sustainopreneurship is made possible with availability of information on linkages between entrepreneurs and financial lending institutions as well as government policy. It is hoped that the research will add to the existing knowledge and help entrepreneurs with funding options for their business ideas to come to life. Findings show that the government financial lending institutions and the public are the major linkages between entrepreneurship and business management and are critical for attaining sustainable development goals and achieving economic growth.

  13. Nance-Horan syndrome: linkage analysis in a family from The Netherlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergen, A A; ten Brink, J; Schuurman, E J; Bleeker-Wagemakers, E M

    1994-05-01

    Linkage analysis was carried out in a Dutch family with Nance-Horan (NH) syndrome. Close linkage without recombination between NH and the Xp loci DXS207, DXS43, and DXS365 (zmax = 3.23) was observed. Multipoint linkage analysis and the analysis of recombinations in multiple informative meioses suggest the genetic order Xcen-DMD (exon 49)-DXS451-(NH, DXS207, DXS365, DXS43)-(STS, DXF30)-Xpter. These data refine the localization of the NH locus on the distal Xp.

  14. A genetic linkage map of hexaploid naked oat constructed with SSR markers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaoyuan Song

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Naked oat is a unique health food crop in China. Using 202 F2 individuals derived from a hybrid between the variety 578 and the landrace Sanfensan, we constructed a genetic linkage map consisting of 22 linkage groups covering 2070.50 cM and including 208 simple sequence repeat (SSR markers. The minimum distance between adjacent markers was 0.01 cM and the average was 9.95 cM. Each linkage group contained 2–22 markers. The largest linkage group covered 174.40 cM and the shortest one covered 36.80 cM, with an average of 94.11 cM. Thirty-six markers (17.3% showing distorted segregation were distributed across linkage groups LG5 to LG22. This map complements published oat genetic maps and is applicable for quantitative trait locus analysis, gene cloning and molecular marker-assisted selection.

  15. Holocene climate variability and oceanographic changes off western South Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Xueqin; Dupont, Lydie; E Meadows, Michael; Schefuß, Enno; Bouimetarhan, Ilham; Wefer, Gerold

    2017-04-01

    South Africa is located at a critical transition zone between subtropical and warm-temperate climate zones influenced by the Indian and Atlantic oceans. Presently, the seasonal changes of atmospheric and oceanic systems induce a pronounced rainfall seasonality comprised of two different rainfall zones over South Africa. How did this seasonality develop during the Holocene? To obtain a better understanding of how South African climates have evolved during the Holocene, we conduct a comprehensive spatial-temporal approach including pollen and dinoflagellate cyst records from marine sediment samples retrieved from the Namaqualand mudbelt, a Holocene terrigenous mud deposit on the shelf of western South Africa. The representation of different vegetation communities in western South Africa is assessed through pollen analysis of surface sediments. This approach allows for climate reconstructions of the summer rainfall zone (SRZ) using Group 1 (Poaceae, Cyperaceae, Phragmites-type and Typha) and winter rainfall zone (WRZ) using Group 2 (Restionaceae, Ericaceae, Anthospermum, Stoebe/Elytropappus-type, Cliffortia, Passerina, Artemisia-type and Pentzia-type) from a single marine archive. The fossil pollen data from gravity core GeoB8331-4 indicate contrasting climate patterns in the SRZ and WRZ especially during the early and middle Holocene. The rainfall amount in the SRZ is dominated by insolation forcing, while in the WRZ it is mainly attributed to the latitudinal position of the southern westerlies. Dinoflagellate cyst data show significantly different oceanographic conditions associated with climate changes on land. High percentages of autotrophic taxa like Operculodinium centrocarpum and Spiniferites spp. indicate warm and stratified conditions during the early Holocene, suggesting reduced upwelling. In contrast, the middle Holocene is characterized by a strong increase in heterotrophic taxa in particular Lejeunecysta paratenella and Echinidinium spp., indicating cool

  16. Response of corn markets to climate volatility under alternative energy futures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Hertel, Thomas W; Scherer, Martin; Verma, Monika

    2012-07-01

    Recent price spikes(1,2) have raised concern that climate change could increase food insecurity by reducing grain yields in the coming decades(3,4). However, commodity price volatility is also influenced by other factors(5,6), which may either exacerbate or buffer the effects of climate change. Here we show that US corn price volatility exhibits higher sensitivity to near-term climate change than to energy policy influences or agriculture-energy market integration, and that the presence of a biofuels mandate enhances the sensitivity to climate change by more than 50%. The climate change impact is driven primarily by intensification of severe hot conditions in the primary corn-growing region of the US, which causes US corn price volatility to increase sharply in response to global warming projected over the next three decades. Closer integration of agriculture and energy markets moderates the effects of climate change, unless the biofuels mandate becomes binding, in which case corn price volatility is instead exacerbated. However, in spite of the substantial impact on US corn price volatility, we find relatively small impact on food prices. Our findings highlight the critical importance of interactions between energy policies, energy-agriculture linkages, and climate change.

  17. State-building and human resources for health in fragile and conflict-affected states: exploring the linkages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Witter, Sophie; Falisse, Jean-Benoit; Bertone, Maria Paola; Alonso-Garbayo, Alvaro; Martins, João S; Salehi, Ahmad Shah; Pavignani, Enrico; Martineau, Tim

    2015-05-15

    Human resources for health are self-evidently critical to running a health service and system. There is, however, a wider set of social issues which is more rarely considered. One area which is hinted at in literature, particularly on fragile and conflict-affected states, but rarely examined in detail, is the contribution which health staff may or do play in relation to the wider state-building processes. This article aims to explore that relationship, developing a conceptual framework to understand what linkages might exist and looking for empirical evidence in the literature to support, refute or adapt those linkages. An open call for contributions to the article was launched through an online community. The group then developed a conceptual framework and explored a variety of literatures (political, economic, historical, public administration, conflict and health-related) to find theoretical and empirical evidence related to the linkages outlined in the framework. Three country case reports were also developed for Afghanistan, Burundi and Timor-Leste, using secondary sources and the knowledge of the group. We find that the empirical evidence for most of the linkages is not strong, which is not surprising, given the complexity of the relationships. Nevertheless, some of the posited relationships are plausible, especially between development of health cadres and a strengthened public administration, which in the long run underlies a number of state-building features. The reintegration of factional health staff post-conflict is also plausibly linked to reconciliation and peace-building. The role of medical staff as part of national elites may also be important. The concept of state-building itself is highly contested, with a rich vein of scepticism about the wisdom or feasibility of this as an external project. While recognizing the inherently political nature of these processes, systems and sub-systems, it remains the case that state-building does occur over time

  18. Records of millennial-scale climate change from the Great Basin of the Western United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benson, Larry

    High-resolution (decadal) records of climate change from the Owens, Mono, and Pyramid Lake basins of California and Nevada indicate that millennialscale oscillations in climate of the Great Basin occurred between 52.6 and 9.2 14C ka. Climate records from the Owens and Pyramid Lake basins indicate that most, but not all, glacier advances (stades) between 52.6 and ˜15.0 14C ka occurred during relatively dry times. During the last alpine glacial period (˜60.0 to ˜14.0 14C ka), stadial/interstadial oscillations were recorded in Owens and Pyramid Lake sediments by the negative response of phytoplankton productivity to the influx of glacially derived silicates. During glacier advances, rock flour diluted the TOC fraction of lake sediments and introduction of glacially derived suspended sediment also increased the turbidity of lake water, decreasing light penetration and photosynthetic production of organic carbon. It is not possible to correlate objectively peaks in the Owens and Pyramid Lake TOC records (interstades) with Dansgaard-Oeschger interstades in the GISP2 ice-core δ18O record given uncertainties in age control and difference in the shapes of the OL90, PLC92 and GISP2 records. In the North Atlantic region, some climate records have clearly defined variability/cyclicity with periodicities of 102 to 103 yr; these records are correlatable over several thousand km. In the Great Basin, climate proxies also have clearly defined variability with similar time constants, but the distance over which this variability can be correlated remains unknown. Globally, there may be minimal spatial scales (domains) within which climate varies coherently on centennial and millennial scales, but it is likely that the sizes of these domains vary with geographic setting and time. A more comprehensive understanding of the mechanisms of climate forcing and the physical linkages between climate forcing and system response is needed in order to predict the spatial scale(s) over which

  19. Meta-analysis of 32 genome-wide linkage studies of schizophrenia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ng, MYM; Levinson, DF; Faraone, SV; Suarez, BK; DeLisi, LE; Arinami, T; Riley, B; Paunio, T; Pulver, AE; Irmansyah; Holmans, PA; Escamilla, M; Wildenauer, DB; Williams, NM; Laurent, C; Mowry, BJ; Brzustowicz, LM; Maziade, M; Sklar, P; Garver, DL; Abecasis, GR; Lerer, B; Fallin, MD; Gurling, HMD; Gejman, PV; Lindholm, E; Moises, HW; Byerley, W; Wijsman, EM; Forabosco, P; Tsuang, MT; Hwu, H-G; Okazaki, Y; Kendler, KS; Wormley, B; Fanous, A; Walsh, D; O’Neill, FA; Peltonen, L; Nestadt, G; Lasseter, VK; Liang, KY; Papadimitriou, GM; Dikeos, DG; Schwab, SG; Owen, MJ; O’Donovan, MC; Norton, N; Hare, E; Raventos, H; Nicolini, H; Albus, M; Maier, W; Nimgaonkar, VL; Terenius, L; Mallet, J; Jay, M; Godard, S; Nertney, D; Alexander, M; Crowe, RR; Silverman, JM; Bassett, AS; Roy, M-A; Mérette, C; Pato, CN; Pato, MT; Roos, J Louw; Kohn, Y; Amann-Zalcenstein, D; Kalsi, G; McQuillin, A; Curtis, D; Brynjolfson, J; Sigmundsson, T; Petursson, H; Sanders, AR; Duan, J; Jazin, E; Myles-Worsley, M; Karayiorgou, M; Lewis, CM

    2009-01-01

    A genome scan meta-analysis (GSMA) was carried out on 32 independent genome-wide linkage scan analyses that included 3255 pedigrees with 7413 genotyped cases affected with schizophrenia (SCZ) or related disorders. The primary GSMA divided the autosomes into 120 bins, rank-ordered the bins within each study according to the most positive linkage result in each bin, summed these ranks (weighted for study size) for each bin across studies and determined the empirical probability of a given summed rank (PSR) by simulation. Suggestive evidence for linkage was observed in two single bins, on chromosomes 5q (142-168 Mb) and 2q (103-134 Mb). Genome-wide evidence for linkage was detected on chromosome 2q (119-152 Mb) when bin boundaries were shifted to the middle of the previous bins. The primary analysis met empirical criteria for ‘aggregate’ genome-wide significance, indicating that some or all of 10 bins are likely to contain loci linked to SCZ, including regions of chromosomes 1, 2q, 3q, 4q, 5q, 8p and 10q. In a secondary analysis of 22 studies of European-ancestry samples, suggestive evidence for linkage was observed on chromosome 8p (16-33 Mb). Although the newer genome-wide association methodology has greater power to detect weak associations to single common DNA sequence variants, linkage analysis can detect diverse genetic effects that segregate in families, including multiple rare variants within one locus or several weakly associated loci in the same region. Therefore, the regions supported by this meta-analysis deserve close attention in future studies. PMID:19349958

  20. Understanding the economic benefits of climate change commitments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hinge, A.W.; Bourgeois, T.G.

    1998-01-01

    Much has been written about the likely economic costs of US commitment to a global climate change treaty, whereby signatory countries would be expected to stabilize or reduce carbon emissions. A great deal of rhetoric has surrounded the potential costs of such action, with some estimates stating that committing to such a treaty would result in 1.2 to 1.8 million job losses by the year 2010. On the other side of the discussion, the Energy Innovations report prepared by ACEEE and others showed that emissions could be cut by 10% by 2010, at the same time that the economy would grow modestly by $2.8 billion over a base case, including a net gain of 800,000 additional jobs. One area that has not been adequately addressed in the debate is quantifying the current level of activity of the positively affected industries from such a climate treaty, including the energy efficiency and renewable energy industries and other environmental businesses. This paper presents information on the current and prospective contribution of the energy efficiency industries to US economic output, exports and job creation. This will better define what the possible benefits to the US economy might be of potential global climate change policies. The magnitude of the beneficial economic impact will in part be determined by the extent to which energy efficiency products, and the components which comprise them, are manufactured in the US. An important issue to be addressed is the existence, scale, and the competitive position of these energy efficiency industries in the US

  1. Robust LOD scores for variance component-based linkage analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blangero, J; Williams, J T; Almasy, L

    2000-01-01

    The variance component method is now widely used for linkage analysis of quantitative traits. Although this approach offers many advantages, the importance of the underlying assumption of multivariate normality of the trait distribution within pedigrees has not been studied extensively. Simulation studies have shown that traits with leptokurtic distributions yield linkage test statistics that exhibit excessive Type I error when analyzed naively. We derive analytical formulae relating the deviation from the expected asymptotic distribution of the lod score to the kurtosis and total heritability of the quantitative trait. A simple correction constant yields a robust lod score for any deviation from normality and for any pedigree structure, and effectively eliminates the problem of inflated Type I error due to misspecification of the underlying probability model in variance component-based linkage analysis.

  2. High Resolution Simulations of Future Climate in West Africa Using a Variable-Resolution Atmospheric Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adegoke, J. O.; Engelbrecht, F.; Vezhapparambu, S.

    2013-12-01

    In previous work demonstrated the application of a var¬iable-resolution global atmospheric model, the conformal-cubic atmospheric model (CCAM), across a wide range of spatial and time scales to investigate the ability of the model to provide realistic simulations of present-day climate and plausible projections of future climate change over sub-Saharan Africa. By applying the model in stretched-grid mode the versatility of the model dynamics, numerical formulation and physical parameterizations to function across a range of length scales over the region of interest, was also explored. We primarily used CCAM to illustrate the capability of the model to function as a flexible downscaling tool at the climate-change time scale. Here we report on additional long term climate projection studies performed by downscaling at much higher resolutions (8 Km) over an area that stretches from just south of Sahara desert to the southern coast of the Niger Delta and into the Gulf of Guinea. To perform these simulations, CCAM was provided with synoptic-scale forcing of atmospheric circulation from 2.5 deg resolution NCEP reanalysis at 6-hourly interval and SSTs from NCEP reanalysis data uses as lower boundary forcing. CCAM 60 Km resolution downscaled to 8 Km (Schmidt factor 24.75) then 8 Km resolution simulation downscaled to 1 Km (Schmidt factor 200) over an area approximately 50 Km x 50 Km in the southern Lake Chad Basin (LCB). Our intent in conducting these high resolution model runs was to obtain a deeper understanding of linkages between the projected future climate and the hydrological processes that control the surface water regime in this part of sub-Saharan Africa.

  3. Linkage of biomolecules to solid phases for immunoassay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chapman, R.S.

    1998-01-01

    Topics covered by this lecture include a brief review of the principal methods of linkage of biomolecules to solid phase matrices. Copies of the key self explanatory slides are presented as figures together with reprints of two publications by the author dealing with a preferred chemistry for the covalent linkage of antibodies to hydroxyl and amino functional groups and the effects of changes in solid phase matrix and antibody coupling chemistry on the performance of a typical excess reagent immunoassay for thyroid stimulating hormone

  4. Climate Odyssey: Resources for Understanding Coastal Change through Art, Science, and Sail

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klos, P. Z.; Holtsnider, L.

    2017-12-01

    Climate Odyssey (climateodyssey.org) is a year-long sailing expedition and continuing collaboration aimed at using overlaps in science and visual art to communicate coastal climate change impacts and solutions. We, visual artist Lucy Holtsnider and climate scientist Zion Klos, are using our complimentary skills in art, science and communication to engage audiences both intuitively and cognitively regarding the urgency of climate change through story and visualization. Over the 2015 - 2016 academic year, we embarked on the sailing portion of Climate Odyssey, beginning in Lake Michigan, continuing along the Eastern Seaboard, and concluding in the tropics. Along the way we photographed climate change impacts and adaptation strategies, interviewed stakeholders, scientists, and artists. We are now sharing our photographs and documented encounters through a tangible artist's book, interactive digital map, blog, and series of K16 lesson plans. Each of our images added to the artist's book and digital map are linked to relevant blog entries and other external scientific resources, making the map both a piece of art and an engaging education tool for sharing the science of climate change impacts and solutions. After completing the sailing component of the project, we have now finalized our multi-media resources and are working to share these with the public via libraries, galleries, and K16 classrooms in coastal communities. At AGU, we will share with our peers the completed version of the series of K16 lesson plans that provide educators an easy-to-use way to introduce and utilize the material in the artist's book, digital map, and online blog. Through this, we hope to both discuss climate-focused education and engagement strategies, as well as showcase this example of art-science outreach with the broader science education and communication community that is focused on climate literacy in the U.S. and beyond.

  5. Preliminary genetic linkage map of the abalone Haliotis diversicolor Reeve

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Yaohua; Guo, Ximing; Gu, Zhifeng; Wang, Aimin; Wang, Yan

    2010-05-01

    Haliotis diversicolor Reeve is one of the most important mollusks cultured in South China. Preliminary genetic linkage maps were constructed with amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) markers. A total of 2 596 AFLP markers were obtained from 28 primer combinations in two parents and 78 offsprings. Among them, 412 markers (15.9%) were polymorphic and segregated in the mapping family. Chi-square tests showed that 151 (84.4%) markers segregated according to the expected 1:1 Mendelian ratio ( P<0.05) in the female parent, and 200 (85.8%) in the male parent. For the female map, 179 markers were used for linkage analysis and 90 markers were assigned to 17 linkage groups with an average interval length of 25.7 cm. For the male map, 233 markers were used and 94 were mapped into 18 linkage groups, with an average interval of 25.0 cm. The estimated genome length was 2 773.0 cm for the female and 2 817.1 cm for the male map. The observed length of the linkage map was 1 875.2 cm and 1 896.5 cm for the female and male maps, respectively. When doublets were considered, the map length increased to 2 152.8 cm for the female and 2 032.7 cm for the male map, corresponding to genome coverage of 77.6% and 72.2%, respectively.

  6. Climate Science - getting the world to understand, and to care

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jasmin, T.; Ackerman, S. A.; Whittaker, T. M.

    2012-12-01

    Effectively teaching and conveying climate science has become one of Earth Science's greatest challenges. Existing barriers are many and varied, from political, ideological, and religious, to purely economic. Additionally, studies show the general public at present has a surprising number of basic misconceptions regarding the Earth system, and Earth-Sun relationships. Addressing these misconceptions is the first hurdle to overcome for properly teaching climate science. This talk will discuss ways to address the various barriers. Strategies are being employed to arm teachers with new tools leveraging the move to online, interactive learning. Content can be tailored particular audiences. For any individual, learning will be most effective if there is an understood significance, the information is presented clearly and at an appropriate education level, and when possible some personal relevance can be inferred. People need a reason to care. Examples and approaches for several common education scenarios will be given. A simple "Climate Change 101" outline will be given, a blueprint that could be used to educate most of the general public. Freely available online resources to address Earth System misconceptions will be referenced. Finally, a case will be made that a dramatic improvement in climate literacy worldwide may be the only viable means to successfully tackling global warming.

  7. The linkage between household water consumption and rainfall in the semi-arid region of East Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Messakh, J. J.; Moy, D. L.; Mojo, D.; Maliti, Y.

    2018-01-01

    Several studies have shown that the amount of water consumption by communities will depend on the factors of water consumption patterns that are influenced by social, cultural, economic and local climate conditions. Research on the linkage between rainfall and household water consumption in semi-arid areas of Indonesia has never been done. This study has been conducted on 17 regions in NTT, and case study has taken samples in one town and one village. The research used survey and documentation method. The results show that the average amount of household water consumption in semi-arid region of East Nusa Tenggara is 107 liters / person / day. Statistical test results using Pearson correlation found r = -0.194 and sig = 0.448. This means that there is a negative correlation between rainfall and household water consumption. The greater the rainfall the smaller the consumption of water, or the smaller the rainfall the greater the consumption of water, but the linkage is not significant. Research shows that the amount of household water consumption will be influenced by many interrelated factors and none of the most dominant factors, including the size of the rainfall that occurs in a region.

  8. Teaching Climate Change Using System Models: An Understanding Global Change Project Pilot Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bean, J. R.; Stuhlsatz, M.; Bracey, Z. B.; Marshall, C. R.

    2017-12-01

    Teaching and learning about historical and anthropogenic climate change in the classroom requires integrating instructional resources that address physical, chemical, and biological processes. The Understanding Global Change (UGC) framework and system models developed at the University of California Museum of Paleontology (UCMP) provide visualizations of the relationships and feedbacks between Earth system processes, and the consequences of anthropogenic activities on global climate. This schema provides a mechanism for developing pedagogic narratives that are known to support comprehension and retention of information and relationships. We designed a nine-day instructional unit for middle and high school students that includes a sequence of hands-on, inquiry-based, data rich activities combined with conceptual modeling exercises intended to foster students' development of systems thinking and their understanding of human influences on Earth system processes. The pilot unit, Sea Level Rise in the San Francisco Bay Area, addresses the human causes and consequences of sea level rise and related Earth system processes (i.e., the water cycle and greenhouse effect). Most of the content is not Bay Area specific, and could be used to explore sea level rise in any coastal region. Students completed pre and post assessments, which included questions about the connectedness of components of the Earth system and probed their attitudes towards participating in environmental stewardship activities. Students sequentially drew models representing the content explored in the activities and wrote short descriptions of their system diagrams that were collected by teachers for analysis. We also randomly assigned classes to engage in a very short additional intervention that asked students to think about the role that humans play in the Earth system and to draw themselves into the models. The study will determine if these students have higher stewardship scores and more frequently

  9. Cyclones and extreme windstorm events over Europe under climate change: Global and regional climate model diagnostics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leckebusch, G. C.; Ulbrich, U.

    2003-04-01

    More than any changes of the climate system mean state conditions, the development of extreme events may influence social, economic and legal aspects of our society. This linkage results from the impact of extreme climate events (natural hazards) on environmental systems which again are directly linked to human activities. Prominent examples from the recent past are the record breaking rainfall amounts of August 2002 in central Europe which produced widespread floodings or the wind storm Lothar of December 1999. Within the MICE (Modelling the Impact of Climate Extremes) project framework an assessment of the impact of changes in extremes will be done. The investigation is carried out for several different impact categories as agriculture, energy use and property damage. Focus is laid on the diagnostics of GCM and RCM simulations under different climate change scenarios. In this study we concentrate on extreme windstorms and their relationship to cyclone activity in the global HADCM3 as well as in the regional HADRM3 model under two climate change scenarios (SRESA2a, B2a). In order to identify cyclones we used an objective algorithm from Murry and Simmonds which was widely tested under several different conditions. A slight increase in the occurrence of systems is identified above northern parts of central Europe for both scenarios. For more severe systems (core pressure Spain) a shift to more deep cyclones connected with an increasing number of strong wind events is found.

  10. Linkages Among Climate, Fire, and Thermoerosion in Alaskan Tundra Over the Past Three Millennia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chipman, M. L.; Hu, F. S.

    2017-12-01

    Amplified Arctic warming may facilitate novel tundra disturbance regimes, as suggested by recent increases in the rate and extent of thermoerosion and fires in some tundra areas. Thermoerosion and wildfire can exacerbate warming by releasing large permafrost carbon stocks, and interactions between disturbance regimes can lead to complex ecosystem feedbacks. We conducted geochemical and charcoal analyses of lake sediments from an Alaskan lake to identify thermoerosion and fire events over the past 3,000 years. Thermoerosion was inferred from lake sediments in the context of modern soil data from retrogressive thaw slumps (RTS). Magnetic susceptibility (MS), Ca:K, and Ca:Sr increased with depth in modern RTS soils and were higher on recently exposed than older slump surfaces. Peaks in bulk density, % CaCO3, Ca:K, Ca:Sr, and MS values in the sediments suggest at least 18 thermoerosion events in the Loon Lake watershed over the past 3,000 years. Charcoal analysis identifies 22 fires over the same period at this site. Temporal variability in these records suggests climate-driven responses of both thermoerosion and fire disturbance regimes, with fewer RTS episodes and fire events during the Little Ice Age than the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Moreover, RTS activity lagged behind catchment fires by 20-30 years (>90% confidence interval), implying that fires facilitated thermoerosion on decadal time scales, possibly because of prolonged active-layer deepening following fire and postfire proliferation of insulative shrub cover. These results highlight the potential for complex interactions between climate, vegetation, and tundra disturbance in response to ongoing warming.

  11. Successful Massive Open Online Climate Course on Climate Science and Psychology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nuccitelli, D. A.; Cook, J.

    2015-12-01

    In 2015, the University of Queensland and edX launched a Massive Open Online Course (MOOC), 'Making Sense of Climate Science Denial.' The MOOC debunked approximately 50 common climate myths using elements of both physical science and psychology. Students learned how to recognise the social and psychological drivers of climate science denial, how to better understand climate change, how to identify the techniques and fallacies that climate myths employ to distort climate science, and how to effectively debunk climate misinformation. Contributors to the website Skeptical Science delivered the lectures, which were reinforced via interviews with climate science and psychology experts. Over 15,000 students from 167 countries enrolled in the course, and student feedback was overwhelmingly positive. This MOOC provides a model for effective climate science education.

  12. A Simple Sampling Method for Estimating the Accuracy of Large Scale Record Linkage Projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyd, James H; Guiver, Tenniel; Randall, Sean M; Ferrante, Anna M; Semmens, James B; Anderson, Phil; Dickinson, Teresa

    2016-05-17

    Record linkage techniques allow different data collections to be brought together to provide a wider picture of the health status of individuals. Ensuring high linkage quality is important to guarantee the quality and integrity of research. Current methods for measuring linkage quality typically focus on precision (the proportion of incorrect links), given the difficulty of measuring the proportion of false negatives. The aim of this work is to introduce and evaluate a sampling based method to estimate both precision and recall following record linkage. In the sampling based method, record-pairs from each threshold (including those below the identified cut-off for acceptance) are sampled and clerically reviewed. These results are then applied to the entire set of record-pairs, providing estimates of false positives and false negatives. This method was evaluated on a synthetically generated dataset, where the true match status (which records belonged to the same person) was known. The sampled estimates of linkage quality were relatively close to actual linkage quality metrics calculated for the whole synthetic dataset. The precision and recall measures for seven reviewers were very consistent with little variation in the clerical assessment results (overall agreement using the Fleiss Kappa statistics was 0.601). This method presents as a possible means of accurately estimating matching quality and refining linkages in population level linkage studies. The sampling approach is especially important for large project linkages where the number of record pairs produced may be very large often running into millions.

  13. Hereditary spastic paraplegia: LOD-score considerations for confirmation of linkage in a heterogeneous trait

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dube, M.P.; Kibar, Z.; Rouleau, G.A. [McGill Univ., Quebec (Canada)] [and others

    1997-03-01

    Hereditary spastic paraplegia (HSP) is a degenerative disorder of the motor system, defined by progressive weakness and spasticity of the lower limbs. HSP may be inherited as an autosomal dominant (AD), autosomal recessive, or an X-linked trait. AD HSP is genetically heterogeneous, and three loci have been identified so far: SPG3 maps to chromosome 14q, SPG4 to 2p, and SPG4a to 15q. We have undertaken linkage analysis with 21 uncomplicated AD families to the three AD HSP loci. We report significant linkage for three of our families to the SPG4 locus and exclude several families by multipoint linkage. We used linkage information from several different research teams to evaluate the statistical probability of linkage to the SPG4 locus for uncomplicated AD HSP families and established the critical LOD-score value necessary for confirmation of linkage to the SPG4 locus from Bayesian statistics. In addition, we calculated the empirical P-values for the LOD scores obtained with all families with computer simulation methods. Power to detect significant linkage, as well as type I error probabilities, were evaluated. This combined analytical approach permitted conclusive linkage analyses on small to medium-size families, under the restrictions of genetic heterogeneity. 19 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab.

  14. Hereditary spastic paraplegia: LOD-score considerations for confirmation of linkage in a heterogeneous trait.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubé, M P; Mlodzienski, M A; Kibar, Z; Farlow, M R; Ebers, G; Harper, P; Kolodny, E H; Rouleau, G A; Figlewicz, D A

    1997-03-01

    Hereditary spastic paraplegia (HSP) is a degenerative disorder of the motor system, defined by progressive weakness and spasticity of the lower limbs. HSP may be inherited as an autosomal dominant (AD), autosomal recessive, or an X-linked trait. AD HSP is genetically heterogeneous, and three loci have been identified so far: SPG3 maps to chromosome 14q, SPG4 to 2p, and SPG4a to 15q. We have undertaken linkage analysis with 21 uncomplicated AD families to the three AD HSP loci. We report significant linkage for three of our families to the SPG4 locus and exclude several families by multipoint linkage. We used linkage information from several different research teams to evaluate the statistical probability of linkage to the SPG4 locus for uncomplicated AD HSP families and established the critical LOD-score value necessary for confirmation of linkage to the SPG4 locus from Bayesian statistics. In addition, we calculated the empirical P-values for the LOD scores obtained with all families with computer simulation methods. Power to detect significant linkage, as well as type I error probabilities, were evaluated. This combined analytical approach permitted conclusive linkage analyses on small to medium-size families, under the restrictions of genetic heterogeneity.

  15. Building an Entrepreneurial University in Brazil: The Role and Potential of University-Industry Linkages in Promoting Regional Economic Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amaral, Marcelo; Ferreira, Andre; Teodoro, Pitias

    2011-01-01

    This study is part of a broader research project, conducted by the Triple Helix Research Group--Brazil, focusing on university-industry-government linkages in the state of Rio de Janeiro. The case study reported here is that of the Regional University of Volta Redonda: the aim was to develop an understanding of how a regional university can be…

  16. Recognizing and exploring the right questions with climate data: An example of better understanding ENSO in climate projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ammann, C. M.; Brown, B.; Kalb, C. P.; Bullock, R.; Buja, L.; Gutowski, W. J., Jr.; Halley-Gotway, J.; Kaatz, L.; Yates, D. N.

    2017-12-01

    Coordinated, multi-model climate change projection archives have already led to a flourishing of new climate impact applications. Collections and online tools for the computation of derived indicators have attracted many non-specialist users and decision-makers and facilitated for them the exploration of potential future weather and climate changes on their systems. Guided by a set of standardized steps and analyses, many can now use model output and determine basic model-based changes. But because each application and decision-context is different, the question remains if such a small collection of standardized tools can faithfully and comprehensively represent the critical physical context of change? We use the example of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation, the largest and most broadly recognized mode of variability in the climate system, to explore the difference in impact contexts between a quasi-blind, protocol-bound and a flexible, scientifically guided use of climate information. More use oriented diagnostics of the model-data as well as different strategies for getting data into decision environments are explored.

  17. U.S. Geological Survey climate and land use change science strategy: a framework for understanding and responding to global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkett, Virginia R.; Kirtland, David A.; Taylor, Ione L.; Belnap, Jayne; Cronin, Thomas M.; Dettinger, Michael D.; Frazier, Eldrich L.; Haines, John W.; Loveland, Thomas R.; Milly, Paul C.D.; ,; ,; ,; Robert, S.; Maule, Alec G.; McMahon, Gerard; Striegl, Robert G.

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), a nonregulatory Federal science agency with national scope and responsibilities, is uniquely positioned to serve the Nation’s needs in understanding and responding to global change, including changes in climate, water availability, sea level, land use and land cover, ecosystems, and global biogeochemical cycles. Global change is among the most challenging and formidable issues confronting our Nation and society. Scientists agree that global environmental changes during this century will have far-reaching societal implications (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007; U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2009). In the face of these challenges, the Nation can benefit greatly by using natural science information in decisionmaking.

  18. Evidence for an asthma risk locus on chromosome Xp: a replication linkage study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brasch-Andersen, C; Møller, M U; Haagerup, A

    2008-01-01

    replication sample as used in the present study. The aim of the study was to replicate linkage to candidate regions for asthma in an independent Danish sample. METHODS: We performed a replication study investigating linkage to candidate regions for asthma on chromosomes 1p36.31-p36.21, 5q15-q23.2, 6p24.3-p22...... studies have been carried out the results are still conflicting and call for replication experiments. A Danish genome-wide scan has prior reported evidence for candidate regions for asthma susceptibility genes on chromosomes 1p, 5q, 6p, 12q and Xp. Linkage to chromosome 12q was later confirmed in the same.......3, and Xp22.31-p11.4 using additional markers in an independent set of 136 Danish asthmatic sib pair families. RESULTS: Nonparametric multipoint linkage analyses yielded suggestive evidence for linkage to asthma to chromosome Xp21.2 (MLS 2.92) but failed to replicate linkage to chromosomes 1p36.31-p36.21, 5...

  19. Global observation of EKC hypothesis for CO2, SOx and NOx emission: A policy understanding for climate change mitigation in Bangladesh

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Danesh Miah, Md.; Farhad Hossain Masum, Md.; Koike, Masao

    2010-01-01

    Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis is critical to understanding the developmental path of a nation in relation to its environment. How the effects of economic development processes dictate environmental changes can be found through the study of EKC. To understand the EKC phenomena for climate change, this study was undertaken by reviewing the available literature. As CO 2 , SO x and NO x are the significant greenhouse gases (GHG) responsible for global warming, thus leading to climate change, the study focused on those GHGs for EKC consideration. With an understanding of the different EKC trajectories, an attempt was made to determine the implications for the economic development of Bangladesh in regards to the EKC. It was shown that EKC for CO 2 was following a monotonous straight line in most cases. SO x were shown to follow the full trajectory of the EKC in most situations and NO x was shown the hope only for the developed countries getting the low-income turning point. The type of economic policy that Bangladesh should follow in regards to the discussed pollutants and sources is also revealed. From these discussions, contributions to policy stimulation in Bangladesh are likely to be made.

  20. Towards Improved Linkage of Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation in Health: A Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banwell, Nicola; Rutherford, Shannon; Mackey, Brendan; Chu, Cordia

    2018-01-01

    Climate change and climate-sensitive disasters significantly impact health. Linking Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) is essential for addressing these ever present, complex and increasing risks. Recent calls have been made to build these links in health. However, there is a need to clearly articulate why linking DRR and CCA is important in health. Furthermore, little is known about how DRR and CCA should be linked in health. By extensively examining relevant literature, this review presents the current state of knowledge of linking DRR and CCA in health. This includes the potential for maximising conceptual synergies such as building resilience, and reducing vulnerability and risk. Additionally, technical and operational synergies are identified to link DRR and CCA in health, including: policy, Early Warning Systems, vulnerability and risk assessment, health systems strengthening, infrastructure resilience, disaster preparedness and response, and health impact pathways. Public health actors have a central role in building these links due to their expertise, work functions, and experience in addressing complex health risks. The review concludes with recommendations for future research, including how to better link DRR and CCA in health; and the opportunities, challenges and enablers to build and sustain these links. PMID:29670057

  1. Reassessing the stable water isotope record in understanding past climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noone, D.; Simmonds, I.

    1999-01-01

    Full text: The impact of atmospheric circulation on the stable water isotope record has been examined using an atmospheric general circulation model to reassess the validity of using isotopes to reconstruct Earth's climate history. Global temperature changes are classically estimated from the variations in (polar) isotopic values assuming a simple linear relationship. Such a relationship can be justified from first order theoretical considerations given that the isotopic fractionation at the deposition (ice core) site is temperature dependent. However, it is found that the history of a given air mass is more important that local processes because of the net effect of condensation events active along the transport pathway from the source region. Modulations in the hemispheric flow are seen to be crucial to Antarctic precipitation and the isotopic signal. Similarly, both transient and stationary disturbances influence the pathways of the air masses associated with Antarctic precipitation. During different climate regimes, such as that of the Last Glacial Maximum, the properties of these types of disturbances may not be assumed to be the same. As such, we may not assume that the condensation histories are the same as under different climate conditions. Therefore, the veracity of the linear climate reconstructions becomes questionable. Notwithstanding this result, the types of changes to the circulation regime that are expected generally correspond to changes in the global temperature. This fortunate result does not disallow the use of regressional reconstruction, however, the uncertainties associated with these circulation changes are of the same magnitude as the differences suggested by conventional linear regression in climate reconstruction. This indicates that interpretation of ice core data must be accompanied by detailed examination of the atmospheric processes and quantification of the impacts of their changes. Copyright (1999) Geological Society of Australia

  2. Understanding and predicting climate variations in the Middle East for sustainable water resource management and development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samuels, Rana

    Water issues are a source of tension between Israelis and Palestinians. In the and region of the Middle East, water supply is not just scarce but also uncertain: It is not uncommon for annual rainfall to be as little as 60% or as much as 125% of the multiannual average. This combination of scarcity and uncertainty exacerbates the already strained economy and the already tensed political situation. The uncertainty could be alleviated if it were possible to better forecast water availability. Such forecasting is key not only for water planning and management, but also for economic policy and for political decision making. Water forecasts at multiple time scales are necessary for crop choice, aquifer operation and investments in desalination infrastructure. The unequivocal warming of the climate system adds another level of uncertainty as global and regional water cycles change. This makes the prediction of water availability an even greater challenge. Understanding the impact of climate change on precipitation can provide the information necessary for appropriate risk assessment and water planning. Unfortunately, current global circulation models (GCMs) are only able to predict long term climatic evolution at large scales but not local rainfall. The statistics of local precipitation are traditionally predicted using historical rainfall data. Obviously these data cannot anticipate changes that result from climate change. It is therefore clear that integration of the global information about climate evolution and local historical data is needed to provide the much needed predictions of regional water availability. Currently, there is no theoretical or computational framework that enables such integration for this region. In this dissertation both a conceptual framework and a computational platform for such integration are introduced. In particular, suite of models that link forecasts of climatic evolution under different CO2 emissions scenarios to observed rainfall

  3. Serious Simulation Role-Playing Games for Transformative Climate Change Education: "World Climate" and "Future Climate"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rooney-Varga, J. N.; Sterman, J.; Sawin, E.; Jones, A.; Merhi, H.; Hunt, C.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change, its mitigation, and adaption to its impacts are among the greatest challenges of our times. Despite the importance of societal decisions in determining climate change outcomes, flawed mental models about climate change remain widespread, are often deeply entrenched, and present significant barriers to understanding and decision-making around climate change. Here, we describe two simulation role-playing games that combine active, affective, and analytical learning to enable shifts of deeply held conceptions about climate change. The games, World Climate and Future Climate, use a state-of-the-art decision support simulation, C-ROADS (Climate Rapid Overview and Decision Support) to provide users with immediate feedback on the outcomes of their mitigation strategies at the national level, including global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and concentrations, mean temperature changes, sea level rise, and ocean acidification. C-ROADS outcomes are consistent with the atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMS), such as those used by the IPCC, but runs in less than one second on ordinary laptops, providing immediate feedback to participants on the consequences of their proposed policies. Both World Climate and Future Climate role-playing games provide immersive, situated learning experiences that motivate active engagement with climate science and policy. In World Climate, participants play the role of United Nations climate treaty negotiators. Participant emissions reductions proposals are continually assessed through interactive exploration of the best available science through C-ROADS. Future Climate focuses on time delays in the climate and energy systems. Participants play the roles of three generations: today's policymakers, today's youth, and 'just born.' The game unfolds in three rounds 25 simulated years apart. In the first round, only today's policymakers make decisions; In the next round, the young become the policymakers and inherit the

  4. Understanding Farmers' Response to Climate Variability in Nigeria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this study, farmers 'response to climate variability was examined. Primary and secondary data were used. A multi-stage sampling procedure was adopted in the collection of the primary data using structured questionnaires. Four vegetation zones out of seven where farming is mainly carried out were selected for the study.

  5. Exploiting temporal variability to understand tree recruitment response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ines Ibanez; James S. Clark; Shannon LaDeau; Janneke Hill Ris Lambers

    2007-01-01

    Predicting vegetation shifts under climate change is a challenging endeavor, given the complex interactions between biotic and abiotic variables that influence demographic rates. To determine how current trends and variation in climate change affect seedling establishment, we analyzed demographic responses to spatiotemporal variation to temperature and soil moisture in...

  6. Model reduction of detailed-balanced reaction networks by clustering linkage classes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rao, Shodhan; Jayawardhana, Bayu; van der Schaft, Abraham; Findeisen, Rolf; Bullinger, Eric; Balsa-Canto, Eva; Bernaerts, Kristel

    2016-01-01

    We propose a model reduction method that involves sequential application of clustering of linkage classes and Kron reduction. This approach is specifically useful for chemical reaction networks with each linkage class having less number of reactions. In case of detailed balanced chemical reaction

  7. The Social Impact of Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsiang, S. M.

    2013-12-01

    Managing climate change requires that we understand the social value of climate-related decisions. Rational decision-making demands that we weigh the potential benefits of climate-related investments against their costs. To date, it has been challenging to quantify the relative social benefit of living under different climatic conditions, so policy debates tend to focus on investment costs without considering their benefits. Here I will discuss challenges and advances in the measurement of climate's impact on society. By linking data and methods across physical and social sciences, we are beginning to understand when, where, and how climatic conditions have a causal impact on human wellbeing. I will present examples from this burgeoning interdisciplinary field that quantify the effect of temperature on macroeconomic performance, the effects of climate on human conflict, and the long-term health and economic impact of tropical cyclones. Each of these examples provide new insight into previously unknown benefits of various climate management strategies. I conclude by describing new efforts to systematically gather and compare findings from across the research community to support informed and rational climate management decisions.

  8. Balancing of linkages and robot manipulators advanced methods with illustrative examples

    CERN Document Server

    Arakelian, Vigen

    2015-01-01

    In this book advanced balancing methods for planar and spatial linkages, hand operated and automatic robot manipulators are presented. It is organized into three main parts and eight chapters. The main parts are the introduction to balancing, the balancing of linkages and the balancing of robot manipulators. The review of state-of-the-art literature including more than 500 references discloses particularities of shaking force/moment balancing and gravity compensation methods. Then new methods for balancing of linkages are considered. Methods provided in the second part of the book deal with the partial and complete shaking force/moment balancing of various linkages. A new field for balancing methods applications is the design of mechanical systems for fast manipulation. Special attention is given to the shaking force/moment balancing of robot manipulators. Gravity balancing methods are also discussed. The suggested balancing methods are illustrated by numerous examples.

  9. Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events: challenges and directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Pol, Martijn; Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Cornelissen, Johannes H C; Visser, Marcel E

    2017-06-19

    More extreme climatic events (ECEs) are among the most prominent consequences of climate change. Despite a long-standing recognition of the importance of ECEs by paleo-ecologists and macro-evolutionary biologists, ECEs have only recently received a strong interest in the wider ecological and evolutionary community. However, as with many rapidly expanding fields, it lacks structure and cohesiveness, which strongly limits scientific progress. Furthermore, due to the descriptive and anecdotal nature of many ECE studies it is still unclear what the most relevant questions and long-term consequences are of ECEs. To improve synthesis, we first discuss ways to define ECEs that facilitate comparison among studies. We then argue that biologists should adhere to more rigorous attribution and mechanistic methods to assess ECE impacts. Subsequently, we discuss conceptual and methodological links with climatology and disturbance-, tipping point- and paleo-ecology. These research fields have close linkages with ECE research, but differ in the identity and/or the relative severity of environmental factors. By summarizing the contributions to this theme issue we draw parallels between behavioural, ecological and evolutionary ECE studies, and suggest that an overarching challenge is that most empirical and theoretical evidence points towards responses being highly idiosyncratic, and thus predictability being low. Finally, we suggest a roadmap based on the proposition that an increased focus on the mechanisms behind the biological response function will be crucial for increased understanding and predictability of the impacts of ECE.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events'. © 2017 The Author(s).

  10. Improving preparedness of farmers to Climate Variability: A case study of Vidarbha region of Maharashtra, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swami, D.; Parthasarathy, D.; Dave, P.

    2016-12-01

    A key objective of the ongoing research is to understand the risk and vulnerability of agriculture and farming communities with respect to multiple climate change attributes, particularly monsoon variability and hydrology such as ground water availability. Climate Variability has always been a feature affecting Indian agriculture but the nature and characteristics of this variability is not well understood. Indian monsoon patterns are highly variable and most of the studies focus on larger domain such as Central India or Western coast (Ghosh et al., 2009) but district level analysis is missing i.e. the linkage between agriculture and climate variables at finer scale has not been investigated comprehensively. For example, Eastern Vidarbha region in Maharashtra is considered as one of the most agriculturally sensitive region in India, where every year a large number of farmers commit suicide. The main reasons for large number of suicides are climate related stressors such as droughts, hail storms, and monsoon variability aggravated with poor socio-economic conditions. Present study has tried to explore the areas in Vidarbha region of Maharashtra where famers and crop productivity, specifically cotton, sorghum, is highly vulnerable to monsoon variability, hydrological and socio-economic variables which are further modelled to determine the maximal contributing factor towards crops and farmers' vulnerability. After analysis using primary and secondary data, it will aid in decision making regarding field operations such as time of sowing, harvesting and irrigation requirements by optimizing the cropping pattern with climatic, hydrological and socio-economic variables. It also suggests the adaptation strategies to farmers regarding different types of cropping and water harvesting practices, optimized dates and timings for harvesting, sowing, water and nutrient requirements of particular crops according to the specific region. Primarily along with secondary analysis

  11. A literature review of record linkage procedures focusing on infant health outcomes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carla Jorge Machado

    Full Text Available Record linkage is a powerful tool in assembling information from different data sources and has been used by a number of public health researchers. In this review, we provide an overview of the record linkage methodologies, focusing particularly on probabilistic record linkage. We then stress the purposes and research applications of linking records by focusing on studies of infant health outcomes based on large data sets, and provide a critical review of the studies in Brazil.

  12. A meiotic linkage map of the silver fox, aligned and compared to the canine genome

    OpenAIRE

    Kukekova, Anna V.; Trut, Lyudmila N.; Oskina, Irina N.; Johnson, Jennifer L.; Temnykh, Svetlana V.; Kharlamova, Anastasiya V.; Shepeleva, Darya V.; Gulievich, Rimma G.; Shikhevich, Svetlana G.; Graphodatsky, Alexander S.; Aguirre, Gustavo D.; Acland, Gregory M.

    2007-01-01

    A meiotic linkage map is essential for mapping traits of interest and is often the first step toward understanding a cryptic genome. Specific strains of silver fox (a variant of the red fox, Vulpes vulpes), which segregate behavioral and morphological phenotypes, create a need for such a map. One such strain, selected for docility, exhibits friendly dog-like responses to humans, in contrast to another strain selected for aggression. Development of a fox map is facilitated by the known cytogen...

  13. Sustaining innovations : schools, institutions and linkages in the Cuzco region, Peru

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    ChavezTafur, J.

    1998-01-01

    This thesis is about linkages between the different institutions operating in the rural areas and the contributions these linkages provide. Numerous activities are found taking place in the rural areas of Peru. Many are the result of a specific intervention, designed and implemented towards

  14. One multi-media environmental system with linkage between meteorology/ hydrology/ air quality models and water quality model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, C.; Lynch, J. A.; Dennis, R. L.

    2016-12-01

    The biogeochemical processing of nitrogen and associated pollutants is driven by meteorological and hydrological processes in conjunction with pollutant loading. There are feedbacks between meteorology and hydrology that will be affected by land-use change and climate change. Changes in meteorology will affect pollutant deposition. It is important to account for those feedbacks and produce internally consistent simulations of meteorology, hydrology, and pollutant loading to drive the (watershed/water quality) biogeochemical models. In this study, the ecological response to emission reductions in streams in the Potomac watershed was evaluated. Firstly, we simulated the deposition by using the fully coupled Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) model and the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CAMQ) model; secondly, we created the hydrological data by the offline linked Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and the WRF model. Lastly, we investigated the water quality by one comprehensive/environment model, namely the linkage of CMAQ, WRF, VIC and the Model of Acidification of Groundwater In Catchment (MAGIC) model from 2002 to 2010.The simulated results (such as NO3, SO4, and SBC) fit well to the observed values. The linkage provides a generally accurate, well-tested tool for evaluating sensitivities to varying meteorology and environmental changes on acidification and other biogeochemical processes, with capability to comprehensively explore strategic policy and management design.

  15. Bayesian estimates of linkage disequilibrium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abad-Grau María M

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The maximum likelihood estimator of D' – a standard measure of linkage disequilibrium – is biased toward disequilibrium, and the bias is particularly evident in small samples and rare haplotypes. Results This paper proposes a Bayesian estimation of D' to address this problem. The reduction of the bias is achieved by using a prior distribution on the pair-wise associations between single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs that increases the likelihood of equilibrium with increasing physical distances between pairs of SNPs. We show how to compute the Bayesian estimate using a stochastic estimation based on MCMC methods, and also propose a numerical approximation to the Bayesian estimates that can be used to estimate patterns of LD in large datasets of SNPs. Conclusion Our Bayesian estimator of D' corrects the bias toward disequilibrium that affects the maximum likelihood estimator. A consequence of this feature is a more objective view about the extent of linkage disequilibrium in the human genome, and a more realistic number of tagging SNPs to fully exploit the power of genome wide association studies.

  16. Understanding the Association Between School Climate and Future Orientation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindstrom Johnson, Sarah; Pas, Elise; Bradshaw, Catherine P

    2016-08-01

    Promoting students' future orientation is inherently a goal of the educational system. Recently, it has received more explicit attention given the increased focus on career readiness. This study aimed to examine the association between school climate and adolescents' report of future orientation using data from youth (N = 27,698; 49.4 % female) across 58 high schools. Three-level hierarchical linear models indicated that perceptions of available emotional and service supports, rules and consequences, and parent engagement were positively related to adolescents' future orientation. Additionally, the school-level average future orientation was significantly related to individuals' future orientation, indicating a potential influence of contextual effects on this construct. Taken together, these findings suggest that interventions targeting school climate may hold promise for promoting future orientation.

  17. Global Climate Models for the Classroom: The Educational Impact of Student Work with a Key Tool of Climate Scientists

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bush, D. F.; Sieber, R.; Seiler, G.; Chandler, M. A.; Chmura, G. L.

    2017-12-01

    Efforts to address climate change require public understanding of Earth and climate science. To meet this need, educators require instructional approaches and scientific technologies that overcome cultural barriers to impart conceptual understanding of the work of climate scientists. We compared student inquiry learning with now ubiquitous climate education toy models, data and tools against that which took place using a computational global climate model (GCM) from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Our study at McGill University and John Abbott College in Montreal, QC sheds light on how best to teach the research processes important to Earth and climate scientists studying atmospheric and Earth system processes but ill-understood by those outside the scientific community. We followed a pre/post, control/treatment experimental design that enabled detailed analysis and statistically significant results. Our research found more students succeed at understanding climate change when exposed to actual climate research processes and instruments. Inquiry-based education with a GCM resulted in significantly higher scores pre to post on diagnostic exams (quantitatively) and more complete conceptual understandings (qualitatively). We recognize the difficulty in planning and teaching inquiry with complex technology and we also found evidence that lectures support learning geared toward assessment exams.

  18. Deriving user-informed climate information from climate model ensemble results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huebener, Heike; Hoffmann, Peter; Keuler, Klaus; Pfeifer, Susanne; Ramthun, Hans; Spekat, Arne; Steger, Christian; Warrach-Sagi, Kirsten

    2017-07-01

    Communication between providers and users of climate model simulation results still needs to be improved. In the German regional climate modeling project ReKliEs-De a midterm user workshop was conducted to allow the intended users of the project results to assess the preliminary results and to streamline the final project results to their needs. The user feedback highlighted, in particular, the still considerable gap between climate research output and user-tailored input for climate impact research. Two major requests from the user community addressed the selection of sub-ensembles and some condensed, easy to understand information on the strengths and weaknesses of the climate models involved in the project.

  19. USGS global change science strategy: A framework for understanding and responding to climate and land-use change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkett, Virginia R.; Taylor, Ione L.; Belnap, Jayne; Cronin, Thomas M.; Dettinger, Michael D.; Frazier, Eldrich L.; Haines, John W.; Kirtland, David A.; Loveland, Thomas R.; Milly, Paul C.D.; O'Malley, Robin; Thompson, Robert S.

    2011-01-01

    This U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Global Change Science Strategy expands on the Climate Variability and Change science component of the USGS 2007 Science Strategy, “Facing Tomorrow’s Challenges: USGS Science in the Coming Decade” (U.S. Geological Survey, 2007). Here we embrace the broad definition of global change provided in the U.S. Global Change Research Act of 1990 (Public Law 101–606,104 Stat. 3096–3104)—“Changes in the global environment (including alterations in climate, land productivity, oceans or other water resources, atmospheric chemistry, and ecological systems) that may alter the capacity of the Earth to sustain life”—with a focus on climate and land-use change.There are three major characteristics of this science strategy. First, it addresses the science required to broadly inform global change policy, while emphasizing the needs of natural-resource managers and reflecting the role of the USGS as the science provider for the Department of the Interior and other resource-management agencies. Second, the strategy identifies core competencies, noting 10 critical capabilities and strengths the USGS uses to overcome key problem areas. We highlight those areas in which the USGS is a science leader, recognizing the strong partnerships and effective collaboration that are essential to address complex global environmental challenges. Third, it uses a query-based approach listing key research questions that need to be addressed to create an agenda for hypothesis-driven global change science organized under six strategic goals. Overall, the strategy starts from where we are, provides a vision for where we want to go, and then describes high-priority strategic actions, including outcomes, products, and partnerships that can get us there. Global change science is a well-defined research field with strong linkages to the ecosystems, water, energy and minerals, natural hazards, and environmental health components of the USGS Science Strategy

  20. Missing Linkages in California's Landscape [ds420

    Data.gov (United States)

    California Natural Resource Agency — The critical need for conserving landscape linkages first came to the forefront of conservation thinking in California in November 2000, when a statewide interagency...

  1. Missing Linkages in California's Landscape [ds420

    Data.gov (United States)

    California Department of Resources — The critical need for conserving landscape linkages first came to the forefront of conservation thinking in California in November 2000, when a statewide interagency...

  2. An integrated assessment of regional air pollution and climate change in Europe: findings of the AIR-CLIM project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alcamo, J.; Mayerhofer, P.; Guardans, R.; Harmelen, T. van; Minnen, J. van; Onigkeit, J.; Posch, M.; Vries, B. de

    2002-01-01

    This paper presents results of an assessment of the linkages between regional air pollution and climate change in Europe (the AIR-CLIM Project). The main research tool was an integrated modeling framework and the main product was a consistent set of long-term scenarios covering Europe between 1995

  3. Resource linkages and sustainable development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anouti, Yahya

    Historically, fossil fuel consumers in most developing hydrocarbon-rich countries have enjoyed retail prices at a discount from international benchmarks. Governments of these countries consider the subsidy transfer to be a means for sharing the wealth from their resource endowment. These subsidies create negative economic, environmental, and social distortions, which can only increase over time with a fast growing, young, and rich population. The pressure to phase out these subsidies has been mounting over the last years. At the same time, policy makers in resource-rich developing countries are keen to obtain the greatest benefits for their economies from the extraction of their exhaustible resources. To this end, they are deploying local content policies with the aim of increasing the economic linkages from extracting their resources. Against this background, this dissertation's three essays evaluate (1) the global impact of rationalizing transport fuel prices, (2) how resource-rich countries can achieve the objectives behind fuel subsidies more efficiently through direct cash transfers, and (3) the economic tradeoffs from deploying local content policies and the presence of an optimal path. We begin by reviewing the literature and building the case for rationalizing transport fuel prices to reflect their direct costs (production), indirect costs (road maintenance) and negative externalities (climate change, local pollutants, traffic accidents and congestion). To do so, we increase the scope of the economic literature by presenting an algorithm to evaluate the rationalized prices in different countries. Then, we apply this algorithm to quantify the rationalized prices across 123 countries in a partial equilibrium setting. Finally, we present the first comprehensive measure of the impact of rationalizing fuel prices on the global demand for gasoline and diesel, environmental emissions, government revenues, and consumers' welfare. By rationalizing transport fuel

  4. Markov chain Monte Carlo linkage analysis: effect of bin width on the probability of linkage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slager, S L; Juo, S H; Durner, M; Hodge, S E

    2001-01-01

    We analyzed part of the Genetic Analysis Workshop (GAW) 12 simulated data using Monte Carlo Markov chain (MCMC) methods that are implemented in the computer program Loki. The MCMC method reports the "probability of linkage" (PL) across the chromosomal regions of interest. The point of maximum PL can then be taken as a "location estimate" for the location of the quantitative trait locus (QTL). However, Loki does not provide a formal statistical test of linkage. In this paper, we explore how the bin width used in the calculations affects the max PL and the location estimate. We analyzed age at onset (AO) and quantitative trait number 5, Q5, from 26 replicates of the general simulated data in one region where we knew a major gene, MG5, is located. For each trait, we found the max PL and the corresponding location estimate, using four different bin widths. We found that bin width, as expected, does affect the max PL and the location estimate, and we recommend that users of Loki explore how their results vary with different bin widths.

  5. Yukon Government climate change action plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-02-01

    This Climate Change Action Plan described the measures that are being taken by the Yukon Government to adapt to, understand, and reduce contributions to climate change. The action plan is the result of input received from more than 100 individuals and organizations and provides clear direction for a strategy that will minimize the negative impacts of climate change and provide economic, social and other environmental benefits through climate change mitigation. The Yukon government has already taken many actions that respond to climate change, such as: developing the Yukon Cold Climate Innovation Centre; supporting the Northern Climate Exchange for public education and outreach; funding community recycling depots and other groups that reduce waste generation, promote public awareness and divert solid waste; and working with provincial and territorial counterparts to enhance national building standards. The main objectives of the climate change actions are to enhance knowledge and understanding of climate change; adapt to climate change; reduce greenhouse gas emissions; and lead Yukon action in response to climate change. tabs., figs.

  6. Linking an ecosystem model and a landscape model to study forest species response to climate warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong S. He; David J. Mladenoff; Thomas R. Crow

    1999-01-01

    No single model can address forest change from single tree to regional scales. We discuss a framework linking an ecosystem process model {LINKAGES) with a spatial landscape model (LANDIS) to examine forest species responses to climate warming for a large, heterogeneous landscape in northern Wisconsin, USA. Individual species response at the ecosystem scale was...

  7. 630 understanding farmers' response to climate variability in nigeria

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Osondu

    Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, and multinomial logit models. Farmers used multiple adaptation strategies; Crop Diversification (CD), Soil ... Increases in temperature, cloud ... and the effect of climate elements and their extreme ...

  8. Climate | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jump to Content Enter Search Terms Weather Climate Oceans & Coasts Fisheries Satellites your local weather Enter your ZIP code GO Enter Search Terms Content OUR WORK Climate From to help people understand and prepare for climate variability and change. Climate. NOAA From

  9. Adaptation to climate change and climate variability:The importance of understanding agriculture as performance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Crane, T.A.; Roncoli, C.; Hoogenboom, G.

    2011-01-01

    Most climate change studies that address potential impacts and potential adaptation strategies are largely based on modelling technologies. While models are useful for visualizing potential future outcomes and evaluating options for potential adaptation, they do not adequately represent and

  10. Climate change links fate of glaciers and an endemic alpine invertebrate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Giersch, J. Joseph; Hauer, F. Richard; Pederson, Gregory T.; Luikart, Gordon; Peterson, Douglas P.; Downs, Christopher C.; Fagre, Daniel B.

    2011-01-01

    Climate warming in the mid- to high-latitudes and high-elevation mountainous regions is occurring more rapidly than anywhere else on Earth, causing extensive loss of glaciers and snowpack. However, little is known about the effects of climate change on alpine stream biota, especially invertebrates. Here, we show a strong linkage between regional climate change and the fundamental niche of a rare aquatic invertebrate—themeltwater stonefly Lednia tumana—endemic toWaterton- Glacier International Peace Park, Canada and USA. L. tumana has been petitioned for listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act due to climate-change-induced glacier loss, yet little is known on specifically how climate impacts may threaten this rare species and many other enigmatic alpine aquatic species worldwide. During 14 years of research, we documented that L. tumana inhabits a narrow distribution, restricted to short sections (∼500 m) of cold, alpine streams directly below glaciers, permanent snowfields, and springs. Our simulation models suggest that climate change threatens the potential future distribution of these sensitive habitats and persistence of L. tumana through the loss of glaciers and snowfields. Mountaintop aquatic invertebrates are ideal early warning indicators of climate warming in mountain ecosystems. Research on alpine invertebrates is urgently needed to avoid extinctions and ecosystem change.

  11. Tropical climate and vegetation changes during Heinrich Event 1: a model-data comparison

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Handiani

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abrupt climate changes from 18 to 15 thousand years before present (kyr BP associated with Heinrich Event 1 (HE1 had a strong impact on vegetation patterns not only at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, but also in the tropical regions around the Atlantic Ocean. To gain a better understanding of the linkage between high and low latitudes, we used the University of Victoria (UVic Earth System-Climate Model (ESCM with dynamical vegetation and land surface components to simulate four scenarios of climate-vegetation interaction: the pre-industrial era, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, and a Heinrich-like event with two different climate backgrounds (interglacial and glacial. We calculated mega-biomes from the plant-functional types (PFTs generated by the model to allow for a direct comparison between model results and palynological vegetation reconstructions.

    Our calculated mega-biomes for the pre-industrial period and the LGM corresponded well with biome reconstructions of the modern and LGM time slices, respectively, except that our pre-industrial simulation predicted the dominance of grassland in southern Europe and our LGM simulation resulted in more forest cover in tropical and sub-tropical South America.

    The HE1-like simulation with a glacial climate background produced sea-surface temperature patterns and enhanced inter-hemispheric thermal gradients in accordance with the "bipolar seesaw" hypothesis. We found that the cooling of the Northern Hemisphere caused a southward shift of those PFTs that are indicative of an increased desertification and a retreat of broadleaf forests in West Africa and northern South America. The mega-biomes from our HE1 simulation agreed well with paleovegetation data from tropical Africa and northern South America. Thus, according to our model-data comparison, the reconstructed vegetation changes for the tropical regions around the Atlantic Ocean were physically consistent with the remote

  12. Solar ultraviolet radiation and ozone depletion-driven climate change: effects on terrestrial ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bornman, J F; Barnes, P W; Robinson, S A; Ballaré, C L; Flint, S D; Caldwell, M M

    2015-01-01

    across the Southern Hemisphere. Such research has broadened our understanding of the linkages that exist between the effects of ozone depletion, UV-B radiation and climate change on terrestrial ecosystems.

  13. Health problems in childhood cancer survivors: Linkage studies and guideline development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Font-Gonzalez, A.

    2016-01-01

    This thesis comprises two parts. The first part of this thesis aims to increase the evidence on the burden of disease in childhood cancer survivors and to define high-risk groups of survivors by using medical record linkage studies. A two-step record linkage methodology between Dutch national

  14. Using Cluster Analysis to Compartmentalize a Large Managed Wetland Based on Physical, Biological, and Climatic Geospatial Attributes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hahus, Ian; Migliaccio, Kati; Douglas-Mankin, Kyle; Klarenberg, Geraldine; Muñoz-Carpena, Rafael

    2018-04-27

    Hierarchical and partitional cluster analyses were used to compartmentalize Water Conservation Area 1, a managed wetland within the Arthur R. Marshall Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge in southeast Florida, USA, based on physical, biological, and climatic geospatial attributes. Single, complete, average, and Ward's linkages were tested during the hierarchical cluster analyses, with average linkage providing the best results. In general, the partitional method, partitioning around medoids, found clusters that were more evenly sized and more spatially aggregated than those resulting from the hierarchical analyses. However, hierarchical analysis appeared to be better suited to identify outlier regions that were significantly different from other areas. The clusters identified by geospatial attributes were similar to clusters developed for the interior marsh in a separate study using water quality attributes, suggesting that similar factors have influenced variations in both the set of physical, biological, and climatic attributes selected in this study and water quality parameters. However, geospatial data allowed further subdivision of several interior marsh clusters identified from the water quality data, potentially indicating zones with important differences in function. Identification of these zones can be useful to managers and modelers by informing the distribution of monitoring equipment and personnel as well as delineating regions that may respond similarly to future changes in management or climate.

  15. Beyond Climate Scenarios: Advancing from Changes in the Mean to a Better Understanding of Physical Processes to Enhance Stakeholder Engagement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yates, D. N.; Kaatz, L.; Ammann, C. M.

    2017-12-01

    Great strides have been made within the climate sciences community to make Global Climate Model (GCM) output and their results as meaningful as possible to the broad community of stakeholders that might benefit from this information. Regardless of these good intentions, the fact remains that most data from GCMs are viewed as being highly uncertain and thus not actionable for water resources planning. The most common use of GCM data is informing projected future climate by use of a mean change, primarily for temperature, given the generally greater confidence in this variable. In contrast, precipitation is viewed as highly uncertain, primarily because it has not validated well against observed precipitation climatologies at local and regional levels. Simple perturbations to historical mean temperature and precipitation sequences are not as complex as using direct GCM outputs and have fewer analytical requirements. Mean climate change information can still give valuable information to water managers, providing meaningful insights and sign posts into future vulnerabilities and is an approach that is arguably deemed more actionable. These temperature and precipitation sign posts can be monitored and used as indicators when certain actions become necessary and/or until there are improvements in actionable climate science information. Recent advances in regional climate modeling (RCM), particularly those run at very high resolution and are cloud resolving, show promise in advancing our understanding of the interaction among climate variables at the regional level. Thus, in addition to exploring how changes in the mean climate (e.g. 2oC warming) might impact a water system, this bottom-up approach makes use of carefully constructed regional climate experiments that are conducted, for example, under conditions of a warmer atmosphere that can hold more moisture. One can then explore what happens to, for example, rain-snow partitioning at various elevations across a snow

  16. A biometeorology study of climate and heat-related morbidity in Phoenix from 2001 to 2006

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golden, Jay S.; Hartz, Donna; Brazel, Anthony; Luber, George; Phelan, Patrick

    2008-07-01

    Heat waves kill more people in the United States than hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, and floods combined. Recently, international attention focused on the linkages and impacts of human health vulnerability to urban climate when Western Europe experienced over 30,000 excess deaths during the heat waves of the summer of 2003—surpassing the 1995 heat wave in Chicago, Illinois, that killed 739. While Europe dealt with heat waves, in the United States, Phoenix, Arizona, established a new all-time high minimum temperature for the region on July 15, 2003. The low temperature of 35.5°C (96°F) was recorded, breaking the previous all-time high minimum temperature record of 33.8°C (93°F). While an extensive literature on heat-related mortality exists, greater understanding of influences of heat-related morbidity is required due to climate change and rapid urbanization influences. We undertook an analysis of 6 years (2001 2006) of heat-related dispatches through the Phoenix Fire Department regional dispatch center to examine temporal, climatic and other non-spatial influences contributing to high-heat-related medical dispatch events. The findings identified that there were no significant variations in day-of-week dispatch events. The greatest incidence of heat-related medical dispatches occurred between the times of peak solar irradiance and maximum diurnal temperature, and during times of elevated human comfort indices (combined temperature and relative humidity).

  17. The Importance of Geographical Proximity for New Product Development Activities within Inter-firm Linkages

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dahlgren, Johan Henrich

    important as a resource and where collaboration partners are important. Hypotheses are tested by means of a quantitative analysis of a data set containing information about 4842 domestic and international inter-firm linkages of Danish firms in manufacturing industries. The findings in this analysis exhibit...... for international linkages. It is further suggested closer geographical distance for inter-firm linkages with medium and high level of interaction, suppliers or customers accounting for more than one third of total purchases or sales, and for linkages lasting for at least 10 years.Key words: capabilities, economics...

  18. INTERACTION OF TRADE AND FINANCIAL LINKAGES IN THE FREE TRADE ZONES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Shevchenko

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Different models of free trade agreements (FTA and free trade zones (FTZ are considered in the article, argued the complex approach to their structures and results under unstable global economic environment. The typology of the free trade zones models and financial linkages types between countries have been developed. Approaches to the results of the free trade zones have been argued. It has been discovered that for the free trade zones of transitional countries the prevailing are tarde flows concentration whereas financial and investment linkages are acting with developed countries. The main directions of increasing of the financial linkages results in the free trade zones have been discovered.

  19. A new method for assessing how sensitivity and specificity of linkage studies affects estimation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cecilia L Moore

    Full Text Available While the importance of record linkage is widely recognised, few studies have attempted to quantify how linkage errors may have impacted on their own findings and outcomes. Even where authors of linkage studies have attempted to estimate sensitivity and specificity based on subjects with known status, the effects of false negatives and positives on event rates and estimates of effect are not often described.We present quantification of the effect of sensitivity and specificity of the linkage process on event rates and incidence, as well as the resultant effect on relative risks. Formulae to estimate the true number of events and estimated relative risk adjusted for given linkage sensitivity and specificity are then derived and applied to data from a prisoner mortality study. The implications of false positive and false negative matches are also discussed.Comparisons of the effect of sensitivity and specificity on incidence and relative risks indicate that it is more important for linkages to be highly specific than sensitive, particularly if true incidence rates are low. We would recommend that, where possible, some quantitative estimates of the sensitivity and specificity of the linkage process be performed, allowing the effect of these quantities on observed results to be assessed.

  20. Point-of-Care HIV Testing and Linkage in an Urban Cohort in the Southern US

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anne Zinski

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The Southern states experience the highest rates of HIV and AIDS in the US, and point-of-care (POC testing outside of primary care may contribute to status awareness in medically underserved populations in this region. To evaluate POC screening and linkage to care at an urban south site, analyses were performed on a dataset of 3,651 individuals from an integrated rapid-result HIV testing and linkage program to describe this test-seeking cohort and determine trends associated with screening, results, and linkage to care. Four percent of the population had positive results. We observed significant differences by test result for age, race and gender, reported risk behaviors, test location, and motivation for screening. The overall linkage rate was 86%, and we found significant differences for clients who were linked to HIV care versus persons whose linkage could not be confirmed with respect to race and gender, location, and motivation. The linkage rate for POC testing that included a comprehensive intake visit and colocated primary care services for in-state residents was 97%. Additional research on integrated POC screening and linkage methodologies that provide intake services at time of testing is essential for increasing status awareness and improving linkage to HIV care in the US.

  1. Role of community based local institution for climate change adaptation in the Teesta riverine area of Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md. Rezaul Karim

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change adaptation is one of the most crucial issues in developing countries like Bangladesh. The main objective was to understand the linkage of participation with Community Based Adaptation (CBA to climate change. Institutional framework following different types of conceptual theories (collective action, group, game and social learning theory was utilized to analyze the participatory process in local community level Village Disaster Mangement Committee (VDMC that works in collaboration with local government. Field level data was collected through interview and group discussion during 25 April to 30 May 2015 in the Teesta riverine area of northern Bangladesh. Results showed that flood and drought were the major climate change impacts in the study area, and various participatory tools were used for risk assessment and undertaking action plans to overcome the climate change challenges by the group VDMC. Participation in VDMC generated both relational and technical outcomes. The relational outcomes are the informal institutional changes through which local community adopt technological adaptation measures. Although, limitations like bargaining problem, free riding or conflict were found in collective decision making, but the initiation of local governance like VDMC has brought various institutional change in the communities in terms of adaptation practices. More than 80% VDMC and around 40–55% non-VDMC household respondents agreed that overall community based adaptation process was successful in the previous year. They believed that some innovative practices had been brought in the community through VDMC action for climate change adaptation. No doubt that the CBA has achieved good progress to achieve the government Comprehensive Disaster Management (CDM strategy of climate change adaptation. But, there is still lack of coordination among local government, NGOs and civil partners in working together. Research related to socio

  2. Climate in Earth history

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berger, W. H.; Crowell, J. C.

    1982-01-01

    Complex atmosphere-ocean-land interactions govern the climate system and its variations. During the course of Earth history, nature has performed a large number of experiments involving climatic change; the geologic record contains much information regarding these experiments. This information should result in an increased understanding of the climate system, including climatic stability and factors that perturb climate. In addition, the paleoclimatic record has been demonstrated to be useful in interpreting the origin of important resources-petroleum, natural gas, coal, phosphate deposits, and many others.

  3. Understanding of crop phenology using satellite-based retrievals and climate factors - a case study on spring maize in Northeast China plain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shuai, Yanmin; Xie, Donghui; Wang, Peijuan; Wu, Menxin

    2014-03-01

    Land surface phenology is an efficient bio-indicator for monitoring terrestrial ecosystem variation in response to climate change. Numerous studies point out climate change plays an important role in modulating vegetation phenological events, especially in agriculture. In turn, surface changes caused by geo-biological processes can affect climate transition regionally and perhaps globally, as concluded by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2001. Large amounts of research concluded that crops, as one of the most sensitive bio-indicators for climate change, can be strongly influenced by local weather such as temperature, moisture and radiation. Thus, investigating the details of weather impact and the feedback from crops can help improve our understanding of the interaction between crops and climate change at satellite scale. Our efforts start from this point, via case studies over the famous agriculture region in the Northeast China's plain to examine the response of spring maize under temperature and moisture stress. MODIS-based daily green vegetation information together with frequent field specification of the surface phenology as well as continuous measurements of the routine climatic factors during seven years (2003-2009) is used in this paper. Despite the obvious difference in scale between satellite estimations and field observations, the inter- and intra-annual variation of maize in seven-years' growth was captured successfully over three typical spring maize regions (Fuyu, Changling, and Hailun) in Northeast China. The results demonstrate that weather conditions such as changes of temperature and moisture stress provide considerable contribution to the year-to-year variations in the timing of spring maize phenological events.

  4. Choosing and using climate change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amy K. Snover,; Nathan J. Mantua,; Littell, Jeremy; Michael A. Alexander,; Michelle M. McClure,; Janet Nye,

    2013-01-01

    Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment.

  5. EU-China Cooperation In the Field of Energy, Environment and Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pietro De Matteis

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available The evolution of the energy market and the intrinsic worldwide scope of environmental threats, such as climate change, are two elements that have pushed the world towards shared approaches to global governance via bilateral institutions and international regimes. This article, with the aid of an institutionalist approach, presents the current status of the EU-China relationship, which is characterised by high institutionalisation, and it underlines how their bilateral cooperation has progressively focused on energy and climate change-related issues. In particular, the article sheds some light on the linkages between energy, environment and climate change and how these have created the basis for the upgrade of the EU-China bilateral relationship to its current level. To do so, it underlines some of the tools, the main frameworks and some of the key outcomes of their bilateral cooperation in these fields.

  6. Large-scale linkage analysis of 1302 affected relative pairs with rheumatoid arthritis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamshere, Marian L; Segurado, Ricardo; Moskvina, Valentina; Nikolov, Ivan; Glaser, Beate; Holmans, Peter A

    2007-01-01

    Rheumatoid arthritis is the most common systematic autoimmune disease and its etiology is believed to have both strong genetic and environmental components. We demonstrate the utility of including genetic and clinical phenotypes as covariates within a linkage analysis framework to search for rheumatoid arthritis susceptibility loci. The raw genotypes of 1302 affected relative pairs were combined from four large family-based samples (North American Rheumatoid Arthritis Consortium, United Kingdom, European Consortium on Rheumatoid Arthritis Families, and Canada). The familiality of the clinical phenotypes was assessed. The affected relative pairs were subjected to autosomal multipoint affected relative-pair linkage analysis. Covariates were included in the linkage analysis to take account of heterogeneity within the sample. Evidence of familiality was observed with age at onset (p << 0.001) and rheumatoid factor (RF) IgM (p << 0.001), but not definite erosions (p = 0.21). Genome-wide significant evidence for linkage was observed on chromosome 6. Genome-wide suggestive evidence for linkage was observed on chromosomes 13 and 20 when conditioning on age at onset, chromosome 15 conditional on gender, and chromosome 19 conditional on RF IgM after allowing for multiple testing of covariates. PMID:18466440

  7. Understanding the origin of the solar cyclic activity for an improved earth climate prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turck-Chièze, Sylvaine; Lambert, Pascal

    This review is dedicated to the processes which could explain the origin of the great extrema of the solar activity. We would like to reach a more suitable estimate and prediction of the temporal solar variability and its real impact on the Earth climatic models. The development of this new field is stimulated by the SoHO helioseismic measurements and by some recent solar modelling improvement which aims to describe the dynamical processes from the core to the surface. We first recall assumptions on the potential different solar variabilities. Then, we introduce stellar seismology and summarize the main SOHO results which are relevant for this field. Finally we mention the dynamical processes which are presently introduced in new solar models. We believe that the knowledge of two important elements: (1) the magnetic field interplay between the radiative zone and the convective zone and (2) the role of the gravity waves, would allow to understand the origin of the grand minima and maxima observed during the last millennium. Complementary observables like acoustic and gravity modes, radius and spectral irradiance from far UV to visible in parallel to the development of 1D-2D-3D simulations will improve this field. PICARD, SDO, DynaMICCS are key projects for a prediction of the next century variability. Some helioseismic indicators constitute the first necessary information to properly describe the Sun-Earth climatic connection.

  8. Extreme Events in China under Climate Change: Uncertainty and related impacts (CSSP-FOREX)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leckebusch, Gregor C.; Befort, Daniel J.; Hodges, Kevin I.

    2016-04-01

    Suitable adaptation strategies or the timely initiation of related mitigation efforts in East Asia will strongly depend on robust and comprehensive information about future near-term as well as long-term potential changes in the climate system. Therefore, understanding the driving mechanisms associated with the East Asian climate is of major importance. The FOREX project (Fostering Regional Decision Making by the Assessment of Uncertainties of Future Regional Extremes and their Linkage to Global Climate System Variability for China and East Asia) focuses on the investigation of extreme wind and rainfall related events over Eastern Asia and their possible future changes. Here, analyses focus on the link between local extreme events and their driving weather systems. This includes the coupling between local rainfall extremes and tropical cyclones, the Meiyu frontal system, extra-tropical teleconnections and monsoonal activity. Furthermore, the relation between these driving weather systems and large-scale variability modes, e.g. NAO, PDO, ENSO is analysed. Thus, beside analysing future changes of local extreme events, the temporal variability of their driving weather systems and related large-scale variability modes will be assessed in current CMIP5 global model simulations to obtain more robust results. Beyond an overview of FOREX itself, first results regarding the link between local extremes and their steering weather systems based on observational and reanalysis data are shown. Special focus is laid on the contribution of monsoonal activity, tropical cyclones and the Meiyu frontal system on the inter-annual variability of the East Asian summer rainfall.

  9. Climate Change Effects of Forest Management and Substitution of Carbon-Intensive Materials and Fossil Fuels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sathre, R.; Gustavsson, L.; Haus, S.; Lundblad, M.; Lundström, A.; Ortiz, C.; Truong, N.; Wikberg, P. E.

    2016-12-01

    Forests can play several roles in climate change mitigation strategies, for example as a reservoir for storing carbon and as a source of renewable materials and energy. To better understand the linkages and possible trade-offs between different forest management strategies, we conduct an integrated analysis where both sequestration of carbon in growing forests and the effects of substituting carbon intensive products within society are considered. We estimate the climate effects of directing forest management in Sweden towards increased carbon storage in forests, with more land set-aside for protection, or towards increased forest production for the substitution of carbon-intensive materials and fossil fuels, relative to a reference case of current forest management. We develop various scenarios of forest management and biomass use to estimate the carbon balances of the forest systems, including ecological and technological components, and their impacts on the climate in terms of cumulative radiative forcing over a 100-year period. For the reference case of current forest management, increasing the harvest of forest residues is found to give increased climate benefits. A scenario with increased set-aside area and the current level of forest residue harvest begins with climate benefits compared to the reference scenario, but the benefits cannot be sustained for 100 years because the rate of carbon storage in set-aside forests diminishes over time as the forests mature, but the demand for products and fuels remains. The most climatically beneficial scenario, expressed as reduced cumulative radiative forcing, in both the short and long terms is a strategy aimed at high forest production, high residue recovery rate, and high efficiency utilization of harvested biomass. Active forest management with high harvest level and efficient forest product utilization will provide more climate benefit, compared to reducing harvest and storing more carbon in the forest. Figure

  10. Climate - Our future?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schotterer, U.

    1992-01-01

    The aim of this picture-based book is to make climate change understandable to a wider public. Images tell the story, figure captions enhance the essentials. Text passages tie and highlight the story, rather than provide long explanations of complex scientific reasoning. Brief summaries at the end of each chapter review knowledge of which everybody should be aware. They are based on the scientific assessments of the 1990 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Report. The climate story is explored from six different angles: the physical system, past changes, how climate affects cultures, how people affect climate, the importance of research and how to view the future

  11. Common species link global ecosystems to climate change: dynamical evidence in the planktonic fossil record.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannisdal, Bjarte; Haaga, Kristian Agasøster; Reitan, Trond; Diego, David; Liow, Lee Hsiang

    2017-07-12

    Common species shape the world around us, and changes in their commonness signify large-scale shifts in ecosystem structure and function. However, our understanding of long-term ecosystem response to environmental forcing in the deep past is centred on species richness, neglecting the disproportional impact of common species. Here, we use common and widespread species of planktonic foraminifera in deep-sea sediments to track changes in observed global occupancy (proportion of sampled sites at which a species is present and observed) through the turbulent climatic history of the last 65 Myr. Our approach is sensitive to relative changes in global abundance of the species set and robust to factors that bias richness estimators. Using three independent methods for detecting causality, we show that the observed global occupancy of planktonic foraminifera has been dynamically coupled to past oceanographic changes captured in deep-ocean temperature reconstructions. The causal inference does not imply a direct mechanism, but is consistent with an indirect, time-delayed causal linkage. Given the strong quantitative evidence that a dynamical coupling exists, we hypothesize that mixotrophy (symbiont hosting) may be an ecological factor linking the global abundance of planktonic foraminifera to long-term climate changes via the relative extent of oligotrophic oceans. © 2017 The Authors.

  12. Climate for Change?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wejs, Anja

    Cities rather than national governments take the lead in acting on climate change. Several cities have voluntarily created climate change plans to prevent and prepare for the effects of climate change. In the literature climate change has been examined as a multilevel governance area taking place...... around international networks. Despite the many initiatives taken by cities, existing research shows that the implementation of climate change actions is lacking. The reasons for this scarcity in practice are limited to general explanations in the literature, and studies focused on explaining...... the constraints on climate change planning at the local level are absent. To understand these constraints, this PhD thesis investigates the institutional dynamics that influence the process of the integration of climate change into planning practices at the local level in Denmark. The examination of integration...

  13. Understanding the Reach of Agricultural Impacts from Climate Extremes in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, A. C.

    2016-12-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to build a modeling framework capable of representing the complexities of agriculture, its dependence on climate, and the many elements of society that depend on food systems. AgMIP's 30+ activities explore the interconnected nature of climate, crop, livestock, economics, food security, and nutrition, using common protocols to systematically evaluate the components of agricultural assessment and allow multi-model, multi-scale, and multi-method analysis of intertwining changes in socioeconomic development, environmental change, and technological adaptation. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) with a particular focus on unforeseen consequences of development strategies, interactions between global and local systems, and the resilience of agricultural systems to extreme climate events. Climate extremes shock the agricultural system through local, direct impacts (e.g., droughts, heat waves, floods, severe storms) and also through teleconnections propagated through international trade. As the climate changes, the nature of climate extremes affecting agriculture is also likely to change, leading to shifting intensity, duration, frequency, and geographic extents of extremes. AgMIP researchers are developing new scenario methodologies to represent near-term extreme droughts in a probabilistic manner, field experiments that impose heat wave conditions on crops, increased resolution to differentiate sub-national drought impacts, new behavioral functions that mimic the response of market actors faced with production shortfalls, analysis of impacts from simultaneous failures of multiple breadbasket regions, and more detailed mapping of food and socioeconomic indicators into food security and nutrition metrics that describe the human impact in diverse populations. Agricultural models illustrate the challenges facing agriculture, allowing

  14. Validation and quantification of uncertainty in coupled climate models using network analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bracco, Annalisa [Georgia Inst. of Technology, Atlanta, GA (United States)

    2015-08-10

    We developed a fast, robust and scalable methodology to examine, quantify, and visualize climate patterns and their relationships. It is based on a set of notions, algorithms and metrics used in the study of graphs, referred to as complex network analysis. This approach can be applied to explain known climate phenomena in terms of an underlying network structure and to uncover regional and global linkages in the climate system, while comparing general circulation models outputs with observations. The proposed method is based on a two-layer network representation, and is substantially new within the available network methodologies developed for climate studies. At the first layer, gridded climate data are used to identify ‘‘areas’’, i.e., geographical regions that are highly homogeneous in terms of the given climate variable. At the second layer, the identified areas are interconnected with links of varying strength, forming a global climate network. The robustness of the method (i.e. the ability to separate between topological distinct fields, while identifying correctly similarities) has been extensively tested. It has been proved that it provides a reliable, fast framework for comparing and ranking the ability of climate models of reproducing observed climate patterns and their connectivity. We further developed the methodology to account for lags in the connectivity between climate patterns and refined our area identification algorithm to account for autocorrelation in the data. The new methodology based on complex network analysis has been applied to state-of-the-art climate model simulations that participated to the last IPCC (International Panel for Climate Change) assessment to verify their performances, quantify uncertainties, and uncover changes in global linkages between past and future projections. Network properties of modeled sea surface temperature and rainfall over 1956–2005 have been constrained towards observations or reanalysis data sets

  15. Carbon dioxide and climate. [Appendix includes names and addresses of the Principal Investigators for the research projects funded in FY1991

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1991-10-01

    Global climate change is a serious environmental concern, and the US has developed An Action Agenda'' to deal with it. At the heart of the US effort is the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), which has been developed by the Committee on Earth and Environmental Sciences (CEES) of the Federal Coordinating Council for Sciences, Engineering, and Technology (FCCSET). The USGCRP will provide the scientific basis for sound policy making on the climate-change issue. The DOE contribution to the USGCRP is the Carbon Dioxide Research Program, which now places particular emphasis on the rapid improvement of the capability to predict global and regional climate change. DOE's Carbon Dioxide Research Program has been addressing the carbon dioxide-climate change connection for more than twelve years and has provided a solid scientific foundation for the USGCRP. The expansion of the DOE effort reflects the increased attention that the Department has placed on the issue and is reflected in the National Energy Strategy (NES) that was released in 1991. This Program Summary describes projects funded by the Carbon Dioxide Research Program during FY 1991 and gives a brief overview of objectives, organization, and accomplishments. The Environmental Sciences Division of the Office of Health and Environmental Research, Office of Energy Research supports a Carbon Dioxide Research Program to determine the scientific linkage between the rise of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, especially carbon dioxide, and climate and vegetation change. One facet is the Core CO{sub 2} Program, a pioneering program that DOE established more than 10 years ago to understand and predict the ways that fossil-fuel burning could affect atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration, global climate, and the Earth's biosphere. Major research areas are: global carbon cycle; climate detection and models of climate change; vegetation research; resource analysis; and, information and integration.

  16. NASA Climate Days: Promoting Climate Literacy One Ambassador and One Event at a Time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weir, H. M.; Lewis, P. M.; Chambers, L. H.; Millham, R. A.; Richardson, A.

    2012-12-01

    presentations from the training, along with downloadable Climate Day Kit materials. Utilizing informal educators from museums, aquariums, libraries and other similar venues allow the hard-to-understand, sometimes-controversial, topic of climate change to be presented to the public in tailored events that suit an individual community's needs. Included in the process of scheduling and executing these climate events, the Ambassadors participate in virtual conferences to discuss progress, to ensure proper evaluation and to allow ample time for questions from the trainers and scientists. This ensures an accurate stream of information from the scientist to the public in a fashion that can be understood and digested by the layperson, helping them to make better-informed decisions about societal issues related to global climate change. Through a series of local Climate Day events, it is hoped that the public will have the opportunity to have first hand experience with the topic of climate change, leaving with a better understanding of its scientific basis. Outcome: This paper will summarize the various methods and strategies used in the Climate Day training events. A discussion of methods that work and those that do not for informal education will help provide a better understanding of the challenges faced in educating the public on such a controversial and hard-to-understand topic.

  17. High-Resolution Genome-Wide Linkage Mapping Identifies Susceptibility Loci for BMI in the Chinese Population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Dong Feng; Pang, Zengchang; Li, Shuxia

    2012-01-01

    The genetic loci affecting the commonly used BMI have been intensively investigated using linkage approaches in multiple populations. This study aims at performing the first genome-wide linkage scan on BMI in the Chinese population in mainland China with hypothesis that heterogeneity in genetic...... linkage could exist in different ethnic populations. BMI was measured from 126 dizygotic twins in Qingdao municipality who were genotyped using high-resolution Affymetrix Genome-Wide Human SNP arrays containing about 1 million single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Nonparametric linkage analysis...... in western countries. Multiple loci showing suggestive linkage were found on chromosome 1 (lod score 2.38 at 242 cM), chromosome 8 (2.48 at 95 cM), and chromosome 14 (2.2 at 89.4 cM). The strong linkage identified in the Chinese subjects that is consistent with that found in populations of European origin...

  18. Strike-slip tectonics during rift linkage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pagli, C.; Yun, S. H.; Ebinger, C.; Keir, D.; Wang, H.

    2017-12-01

    The kinematics of triple junction linkage and the initiation of transforms in magmatic rifts remain debated. Strain patterns from the Afar triple junction provide tests of current models of how rifts grow to link in area of incipient oceanic spreading. Here we present a combined analysis of seismicity, InSAR and GPS derived strain rate maps to reveal that the plate boundary deformation in Afar is accommodated primarily by extensional tectonics in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden rifts, and does not require large rotations about vertical axes (bookshelf faulting). Additionally, models of stress changes and seismicity induced by recent dykes in one sector of the Afar triple junction provide poor fit to the observed strike-slip earthquakes. Instead we explain these patterns as rift-perpendicular shearing at the tips of spreading rifts where extensional strains terminate against less stretched lithosphere. Our results demonstrate that rift-perpendicular strike-slip faulting between rift segments achieves plate boundary linkage during incipient seafloor spreading.

  19. HIV-1 transmission linkage in an HIV-1 prevention clinical trial

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leitner, Thomas [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Campbell, Mary S [UNIV OF WASHINGTON; Mullins, James I [UNIV OF WASHINGTON; Hughes, James P [UNIV OF WASHINGTON; Wong, Kim G [UNIV OF WASHINGTON; Raugi, Dana N [UNIV OF WASHINGTON; Scrensen, Stefanie [UNIV OF WASHINGTON

    2009-01-01

    HIV-1 sequencing has been used extensively in epidemiologic and forensic studies to investigate patterns of HIV-1 transmission. However, the criteria for establishing genetic linkage between HIV-1 strains in HIV-1 prevention trials have not been formalized. The Partners in Prevention HSV/HIV Transmission Study (ClinicaITrials.gov NCT00194519) enrolled 3408 HIV-1 serodiscordant heterosexual African couples to determine the efficacy of genital herpes suppression with acyclovir in reducing HIV-1 transmission. The trial analysis required laboratory confirmation of HIV-1 linkage between enrolled partners in couples in which seroconversion occurred. Here we describe the process and results from HIV-1 sequencing studies used to perform transmission linkage determination in this clinical trial. Consensus Sanger sequencing of env (C2-V3-C3) and gag (p17-p24) genes was performed on plasma HIV-1 RNA from both partners within 3 months of seroconversion; env single molecule or pyrosequencing was also performed in some cases. For linkage, we required monophyletic clustering between HIV-1 sequences in the transmitting and seroconverting partners, and developed a Bayesian algorithm using genetic distances to evaluate the posterior probability of linkage of participants sequences. Adjudicators classified transmissions as linked, unlinked, or indeterminate. Among 151 seroconversion events, we found 108 (71.5%) linked, 40 (26.5%) unlinked, and 3 (2.0%) to have indeterminate transmissions. Nine (8.3%) were linked by consensus gag sequencing only and 8 (7.4%) required deep sequencing of env. In this first use of HIV-1 sequencing to establish endpoints in a large clinical trial, more than one-fourth of transmissions were unlinked to the enrolled partner, illustrating the relevance of these methods in the design of future HIV-1 prevention trials in serodiscordant couples. A hierarchy of sequencing techniques, analysis methods, and expert adjudication contributed to the linkage

  20. Conference on climate and water. Vol. 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huttunen, L.

    1989-01-01

    This book contains the Proceedings of the Conference on Climate and Water under the following groupings: Understanding the climate systems - its variability and potential for change; Climate and hydrological cycle - the effects of climate variability and Change

  1. Meta-analysis of genome-wide linkage scans of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhou, K.; Dempfle, A.; Arcos-Burgos, M.; Bakker, S.C.; Banaschewski, T.; Biederman, J; Buitelaar, J.K.; Castellanos, F.X.; Doyle, A.; Ebstein, R.; Ekholm, J.; Forabosco, P.; Franke, F.; Freitag, C.; Friedel, S.; Gill, M.; Hebebrand, J.; Hinney, A.; Jacob, C.; Lesch, K.P.; Loo, S.K.; Lopera, F.; McCracken, J.T.; McGough, J.J.; Meyer, J.; Mick, E.; Miranda, A.; Muenkel, M.; Mulas, F.; Nelson, S.F.; Nguyen, T.T.; Oades, R.D.; Ogdie, M.N.; Palacio, J.D.; Pineda, D.; Reif, A.; Renner, T.J.; Roeyers, H.; Romanos, M.; Rothenberger, A.; Schäfer, H.; Sergeant, J.A.; Sinke, R.J.; Smalley, S.L.; Sonuga-Barke, E.; Steinhausen, H.C.; van der Meulen, E.; Walitza, S.; Warnke, A.; Lewis, C.M.; Faraone, S.V.; Asherson, P.

    2008-01-01

    Genetic contribution to the development of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is well established. Seven independent genome-wide linkage scans have been performed to map loci that increase the risk for ADHD. Although significant linkage signals were identified in some of the studies,

  2. Meta-analysis of genome-wide linkage scans of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhou, K.; Dempfle, A.; Arcos-Burgos, M.; Bakker, S.C.; Banaschewski, T.; Biederman, J.; Buitelaar, J.K.; Castellanos, F.X.; Doyle, A.; Ebstein, R.P.; Ekholm, J.; Forabosco, P.; Franke, B.; Freitag, C.; Friedel, S.; Gill, M.; Hebebrand, J.; Hinney, A.; Jacob, C.; Lesch, K.P.; Loo, S.K.; Lopera, F.; McCracken, J.T.; McGough, J.J.; Meyer, J.; Mick, E.; Miranda, A.; Muenke, M.; Mulas, F.; Nelson, S.F.; Nguyen, T.T.; Oades, R.D.; Ogdie, M.N.; Palacio, J.D.; Pineda, D.; Reif, A.; Renner, T.J.; Roeyers, H.; Romanos, M.; Rothenberger, A.; Schafer, H.; Sergeant, J.A.; Sinke, R.J.; Smalley, S.L.; Sonuga-Barke, E.J.S.; Steinhausen, H.C.; Meulen, E. van der; Walitza, S.; Warnke, A.; Lewis, C.M.; Faraone, S.V.; Asherson, P.

    2008-01-01

    Genetic contribution to the development of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is well established. Seven independent genome-wide linkage scans have been performed to map loci that increase the risk for ADHD. Although significant linkage signals were identified in some of the studies,

  3. Analysis of Linkage Effects among Currency Networks Using REER Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haishu Qiao

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We modeled the currency networks through the use of REER (real effective exchange rate instead of a bilateral exchange rate in order to overcome the confusion in selecting base currencies. Based on the MST (minimum spanning tree approach and the rolling-window method, we constructed time-varying and correlation-based networks with which we investigate the linkage effects among different currencies. In particular, and as the source of empirical data, we chose the monthly REER data for a set of 61 major currencies during the period from 1994 to 2014. The study demonstrated that obvious linkage effects existed among currency networks and the euro (EUR was confirmed as the predominant world currency. Additionally, we used the rolling-window method to investigate the stability of linkage effects, doing so by calculating the mean correlations and mean distances as well as the normalized tree length and degrees of those currencies. The results showed that financial crises during the study period had a great effect on the currency network’s topology structure and led to more clustered currency networks. Our results suggested that it is more appropriate to estimate the linkage effects among currency networks through the use of REER data.

  4. Single Nucleotide Polymorphism Identification, Characterization, and Linkage Mapping in Quinoa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. J. Maughan

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Quinoa ( Willd. is an important seed crop throughout the Andean region of South America. It is important as a regional food security crop for millions of impoverished rural inhabitants of the Andean Altiplano (high plains. Efforts to improve the crop have led to an increased focus on genetic research. We report the identification of 14,178 putative single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs using a genomic reduction protocol as well as the development of 511 functional SNP assays. The SNP assays are based on KASPar genotyping chemistry and were detected using the Fluidigm dynamic array platform. A diversity screen of 113 quinoa accessions showed that the minor allele frequency (MAF of the SNPs ranged from 0.02 to 0.50, with an average MAF of 0.28. Structure analysis of the quinoa diversity panel uncovered the two major subgroups corresponding to the Andean and coastal quinoa ecotypes. Linkage mapping of the SNPs in two recombinant inbred line populations produced an integrated linkage map consisting of 29 linkage groups with 20 large linkage groups, spanning 1404 cM with a marker density of 3.1 cM per SNP marker. The SNPs identified here represent important genomic tools needed in emerging plant breeding programs for advanced genetic analysis of agronomic traits in quinoa.

  5. Impact of the Hepatitis Testing and Linkage to Care (HepTLC) Initiative on Linkage to Care for Minnesota Refugees with Hepatitis B, 2012-2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linde, Ann C; Sweet, Kristin A; Nelson, Kailey; Mamo, Blain; Chute, Sara M

    2016-01-01

    The Hepatitis Testing and Linkage to Care (HepTLC) initiative promoted viral hepatitis B and hepatitis C screening, posttest counseling, and linkage to care at 34 U.S. sites from 2012 to 2014. Through the HepTLC initiative, the Minnesota Department of Health (MDH) and clinic partners began conducting linkage-to-care activities with hepatitis B-positive refugees in October 2012. This intervention provided culturally appropriate support to link refugees to follow-up care for hepatitis B. MDH refugee health and viral hepatitis surveillance programs, along with clinics that screened newly arrived refugees in Hennepin and Ramsey counties in Minnesota, collaborated on the project, which took place from October 1, 2012, through September 30, 2014. Bilingual care navigators contacted refugees to provide education, make appointments, and arrange transportation. We compared the linkage-to-care rate for participants with the rates for refugees screened the year before project launch using a two-sample test of proportions. In the year preceding the project (October 2011 through September 2012), 87 newly arrived refugees had a positive hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) test. Fifty-six (64%) refugees received follow-up care, 12 (14%) refugees did not receive follow-up care, and 19 (22%) refugees could not be located and had no record of follow-up care. During the project, 174 HBsAg-positive, newly arrived refugees were screened. Of those 174 refugees, 162 (93%) received follow-up care, seven (4%) did not receive follow-up care, and five (3%) could not be located and had no record of follow-up care. The one-year linkage-to-care rate for project participants (93%) was significantly higher than the rate for refugees screened the previous year (64%) (prefugees.

  6. Linking coral river runoff proxies with climate variability, hydrology and land-use in Madagascar catchments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maina, Joseph; de Moel, Hans; Vermaat, Jan E; Bruggemann, J Henrich; Guillaume, Mireille M M; Grove, Craig A; Madin, Joshua S; Mertz-Kraus, Regina; Zinke, Jens

    2012-10-01

    Understanding the linkages between coastal watersheds and adjacent coral reefs is expected to lead to better coral reef conservation strategies. Our study aims to examine the main predictors of environmental proxies recorded in near shore corals and therefore how linked near shore reefs are to the catchment physical processes. To achieve these, we developed models to simulate hydrology of two watersheds in Madagascar. We examined relationships between environmental proxies derived from massive Porites spp. coral cores (spectral luminescence and barium/calcium ratios), and corresponding time-series (1950-2006) data of hydrology, climate, land use and human population growth. Results suggest regional differences in the main environmental drivers of reef sedimentation: on annual time-scales, precipitation, river flow and sediment load explained the variability in coral proxies of river discharge for the northeast region, while El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and temperature (air and sea surface) were the best predictors in the southwest region. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Building partnerships to produce actionable science to support climate-informed management decisions: North Central Climate Science Center example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lackett, J.; Ojima, D. S.; McNeeley, S.

    2017-12-01

    As climate change impacts become more apparent in our environment, action is needed to enhance the social-ecological system resilience. Incorporating principles which lead to actionable research and project co-development, when appropriate, will facilitate building linkages between the research and the natural resource management communities. In order to develop strategies to manage for climatic and ecosystem changes, collaborative actions are needed between researchers and resource managers to apply appropriate knowledge of the ecosystem and management environments to enable feasible solutions and management actions to respond to climate change. Our team has been involved in developing and establishing a research and engagement center, the North Central Climate Science Center (NC CSC), for the US Department of Interior, to support the development and translation of pertinent climate science information to natural resource managers in the north central portion of the United States. The NC CSC has implemented a platform to support the Resource for Vulnerability Assessment, Adaptation, and Mitigation Projects (ReVAMP) with research, engagement, and training activities to support resource managers and researchers. These activities are aimed at the co-production of appropriate response strategies to climate change in the region, in particular to drought-related responses. Through this platform we, with other partners in the region, including the Department of Interior and the Department of Agriculture, are bringing various training tools, climate information, and management planning tools to resource managers. The implementation of ReVAMP has led to development of planning efforts which include a more explicit representation of climate change as a driver of drought events in our region. Scenario planning provides a process which integrates management goals with possible outcomes derived from observations and simulations of ecological impacts of climate change. Co

  8. Urbanization, housing, homelessness and climate change adaptation in Lagos, Nigeria: Lessons from Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ilesanmi Adetokunbo

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The phenomenon of climate change heralds distinctive challenges for sub-Saharan Africa’s urban areas, with economic, social, and health impacts, and severe effects on housing and infrastructure. This study examined climate-change induced vulnerabilities including the urban housing crisis and homelessness in the context of Lagos mega-city, Nigeria, with a view to defining the potential lessons to learn from the Asian urban experience. The study conducted case-study analyses of Lagos and the Asian urban experience, highlighting the megacity-related vulnerabilities. It identified gender and aging as key factors in understanding vulnerability. Lessons from Asia relate to: the conscious policy-linkage of urban demographic expansion and economic growth; synergy between formal and informal sectors; urban densification through compact, mixed-land use development; broad-based urbanization; metropolitan expansion; pursuit of slum-free cities; prominence of housing in national policies; pro-poor financial frameworks; and extensive adoption of mitigation and adaptation strategies in the coastal conurbations. The paper concluded on the critical role of urban governance in reducing vulnerability, the need for greater multi-disciplinary stakeholders’ collaboration and partnership, and the expediency of fitting adaptation strategies and resilience responses to specific needs, capacities and priorities of impact groups. These could enhance the transformation of mega-cities into more adaptable and resilient urban systems.

  9. To better understand the IPCC - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Planton, Serge; Jouzel, Jean; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Soussana, Jean-Francois; Hourcade, Jean-Charles

    2013-10-01

    After indication of some figures illustrating the IPCC's activity, and a presentation of the IPCC by some scientists who are members of IPCC groups, this publication, while answering to some popular misconceptions, indicates important dates for climate and for the IPCC, briefly recalls the IPCC creation and mission. It presents its structure and organisation, gives a brief overview of its activities, presents the role, composition and activities of the different working groups. It indicates the key elements for climate and its evolution. It proposes an overview of the content of the fifth IPCC report, and presents and comments the process of elaboration of assessment reports

  10. Learning Expressive Linkage Rules for Entity Matching using Genetic Programming

    OpenAIRE

    Isele, Robert

    2013-01-01

    A central problem in data integration and data cleansing is to identify pairs of entities in data sets that describe the same real-world object. Many existing methods for matching entities rely on explicit linkage rules, which specify how two entities are compared for equivalence. Unfortunately, writing accurate linkage rules by hand is a non-trivial problem that requires detailed knowledge of the involved data sets. Another important issue is the efficient execution of link...

  11. Adaptation in Global Climate Governance : Linkages between Intergovernmental Dialoge Forums and the UNFCCC regarding Adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Voogt, D.L.

    This paper investigates how intergovernmental dialogue forums addressing climate change outside of the UNFCCC are linked with the UNFCCC regarding their statements on adaptation. The discussed forums are the Major Economies Forum, G8, and G20. Three analytical points of comparison concerning the

  12. Social protection and climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johnson, Craig; Bansha Dulal, Hari; Prowse, Martin Philip

    2013-01-01

    This article lays the foundation for this special issue on social protection and climate change, introducing and evaluating the ways in which the individual articles contribute to our understanding of the subject.......This article lays the foundation for this special issue on social protection and climate change, introducing and evaluating the ways in which the individual articles contribute to our understanding of the subject....

  13. Understanding system disturbance and ecosystem services in restored saltmarshes: Integrating physical and biogeochemical processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spencer, K. L.; Harvey, G. L.

    2012-06-01

    Coastal saltmarsh ecosystems occupy only a small percentage of Earth's land surface, yet contribute a wide range of ecosystem services that have significant global economic and societal value. These environments currently face significant challenges associated with climate change, sea level rise, development and water quality deterioration and are consequently the focus of a range of management schemes. Increasingly, soft engineering techniques such as managed realignment (MR) are being employed to restore and recreate these environments, driven primarily by the need for habitat (re)creation and sustainable coastal flood defence. Such restoration schemes also have the potential to provide additional ecosystem services including climate regulation and waste processing. However, these sites have frequently been physically impacted by their previous land use and there is a lack of understanding of how this 'disturbance' impacts the delivery of ecosystem services or of the complex linkages between ecological, physical and biogeochemical processes in restored systems. Through the exploration of current data this paper determines that hydrological, geomorphological and hydrodynamic functioning of restored sites may be significantly impaired with respects to natural 'undisturbed' systems and that links between morphology, sediment structure, hydrology and solute transfer are poorly understood. This has consequences for the delivery of seeds, the provision of abiotic conditions suitable for plant growth, the development of microhabitats and the cycling of nutrients/contaminants and may impact the delivery of ecosystem services including biodiversity, climate regulation and waste processing. This calls for a change in our approach to research in these environments with a need for integrated, interdisciplinary studies over a range of spatial and temporal scales incorporating both intensive and extensive research design.

  14. Genetic variation, population structure, and linkage disequilibrium in European elite germplasm of perennial ryegrass

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brazauskas, Gintaras; Lenk, Ingo; Pedersen, Morten Greve

    2011-01-01

    Perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne L.) is a highly valued temperate climate grass species grown as forage crop and for amenity uses. Due to its outbreeding nature and recent domestication, a high degree of genetic diversity is expected among cultivars. The aim of this study was to assess the extent...... of linkage disequilibrium (LD) within European elite germplasm and to evaluate the appropriate methodology for genetic association mapping in perennial ryegrass. A high level of genetic diversity was observed in a set of 380 perennial ryegrass elite genotypes when genotyped with 40 SSRs and 2 STS markers...... and occurred within 0.4 cM across European varieties, when population structure was taken into consideration. However, an extended LD of up to 6.6 cM was detected within the variety Aberdart. High genetic diversity and rapid LD decay provide means for high resolution association mapping in elite materials...

  15. Using the Bootstrap to Account for Linkage Errors when Analysing Probabilistically Linked Categorical Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chipperfield James O.

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Record linkage is the act of bringing together records that are believed to belong to the same unit (e.g., person or business from two or more files. Record linkage is not an error-free process and can lead to linking a pair of records that do not belong to the same unit. This occurs because linking fields on the files, which ideally would uniquely identify each unit, are often imperfect. There has been an explosion of record linkage applications, particularly involving government agencies and in the field of health, yet there has been little work on making correct inference using such linked files. Naively treating a linked file as if it were linked without errors can lead to biased inferences. This article develops a method of making inferences for cross tabulated variables when record linkage is not an error-free process. In particular, it develops a parametric bootstrap approach to estimation which can accommodate the sophisticated probabilistic record linkage techniques that are widely used in practice (e.g., 1-1 linkage. The article demonstrates the effectiveness of this method in a simulation and in a real application.

  16. A meiotic linkage map of the silver fox, aligned and compared to the canine genome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kukekova, Anna V; Trut, Lyudmila N; Oskina, Irina N; Johnson, Jennifer L; Temnykh, Svetlana V; Kharlamova, Anastasiya V; Shepeleva, Darya V; Gulievich, Rimma G; Shikhevich, Svetlana G; Graphodatsky, Alexander S; Aguirre, Gustavo D; Acland, Gregory M

    2007-03-01

    A meiotic linkage map is essential for mapping traits of interest and is often the first step toward understanding a cryptic genome. Specific strains of silver fox (a variant of the red fox, Vulpes vulpes), which segregate behavioral and morphological phenotypes, create a need for such a map. One such strain, selected for docility, exhibits friendly dog-like responses to humans, in contrast to another strain selected for aggression. Development of a fox map is facilitated by the known cytogenetic homologies between the dog and fox, and by the availability of high resolution canine genome maps and sequence data. Furthermore, the high genomic sequence identity between dog and fox allows adaptation of canine microsatellites for genotyping and meiotic mapping in foxes. Using 320 such markers, we have constructed the first meiotic linkage map of the fox genome. The resulting sex-averaged map covers 16 fox autosomes and the X chromosome with an average inter-marker distance of 7.5 cM. The total map length corresponds to 1480.2 cM. From comparison of sex-averaged meiotic linkage maps of the fox and dog genomes, suppression of recombination in pericentromeric regions of the metacentric fox chromosomes was apparent, relative to the corresponding segments of acrocentric dog chromosomes. Alignment of the fox meiotic map against the 7.6x canine genome sequence revealed high conservation of marker order between homologous regions of the two species. The fox meiotic map provides a critical tool for genetic studies in foxes and identification of genetic loci and genes implicated in fox domestication.

  17. Understanding the Hydrologic Response of a Coastal Plain Watershed to Forest Management and Climate Change in South Carolina, U.S.A.

    Science.gov (United States)

    J. Lu; Ge Sun; Devendra M. Amatya; S. V. Harder; Steve G. McNulty

    2006-01-01

    The hydrologic processes in wetland ecosystems are not well understood. There are also great concerns and uncertainties about the hydrologic response of wetlands to forest management and climate change. The objective of this study is to apply a hydrologic model to better understand the hydrologic processes of a low relief coastal forested watershed and its responses to...

  18. Nonlinear Analysis of Time Series in Genome-Wide Linkage Disequilibrium Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernández-Lemus, Enrique; Estrada-Gil, Jesús K.; Silva-Zolezzi, Irma; Fernández-López, J. Carlos; Hidalgo-Miranda, Alfredo; Jiménez-Sánchez, Gerardo

    2008-02-01

    The statistical study of large scale genomic data has turned out to be a very important tool in population genetics. Quantitative methods are essential to understand and implement association studies in the biomedical and health sciences. Nevertheless, the characterization of recently admixed populations has been an elusive problem due to the presence of a number of complex phenomena. For example, linkage disequilibrium structures are thought to be more complex than their non-recently admixed population counterparts, presenting the so-called ancestry blocks, admixed regions that are not yet smoothed by the effect of genetic recombination. In order to distinguish characteristic features for various populations we have implemented several methods, some of them borrowed or adapted from the analysis of nonlinear time series in statistical physics and quantitative physiology. We calculate the main fractal dimensions (Kolmogorov's capacity, information dimension and correlation dimension, usually named, D0, D1 and D2). We also have made detrended fluctuation analysis and information based similarity index calculations for the probability distribution of correlations of linkage disequilibrium coefficient of six recently admixed (mestizo) populations within the Mexican Genome Diversity Project [1] and for the non-recently admixed populations in the International HapMap Project [2]. Nonlinear correlations showed up as a consequence of internal structure within the haplotype distributions. The analysis of these correlations as well as the scope and limitations of these procedures within the biomedical sciences are discussed.

  19. Saturation of an intra-gene pool linkage map: towards a unified consensus linkage map for fine mapping and synteny analysis in common bean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galeano, Carlos H; Fernandez, Andrea C; Franco-Herrera, Natalia; Cichy, Karen A; McClean, Phillip E; Vanderleyden, Jos; Blair, Matthew W

    2011-01-01

    Map-based cloning and fine mapping to find genes of interest and marker assisted selection (MAS) requires good genetic maps with reproducible markers. In this study, we saturated the linkage map of the intra-gene pool population of common bean DOR364 × BAT477 (DB) by evaluating 2,706 molecular markers including SSR, SNP, and gene-based markers. On average the polymorphism rate was 7.7% due to the narrow genetic base between the parents. The DB linkage map consisted of 291 markers with a total map length of 1,788 cM. A consensus map was built using the core mapping populations derived from inter-gene pool crosses: DOR364 × G19833 (DG) and BAT93 × JALO EEP558 (BJ). The consensus map consisted of a total of 1,010 markers mapped, with a total map length of 2,041 cM across 11 linkage groups. On average, each linkage group on the consensus map contained 91 markers of which 83% were single copy markers. Finally, a synteny analysis was carried out using our highly saturated consensus maps compared with the soybean pseudo-chromosome assembly. A total of 772 marker sequences were compared with the soybean genome. A total of 44 syntenic blocks were identified. The linkage group Pv6 presented the most diverse pattern of synteny with seven syntenic blocks, and Pv9 showed the most consistent relations with soybean with just two syntenic blocks. Additionally, a co-linear analysis using common bean transcript map information against soybean coding sequences (CDS) revealed the relationship with 787 soybean genes. The common bean consensus map has allowed us to map a larger number of markers, to obtain a more complete coverage of the common bean genome. Our results, combined with synteny relationships provide tools to increase marker density in selected genomic regions to identify closely linked polymorphic markers for indirect selection, fine mapping or for positional cloning.

  20. Understanding Climate Change Perceptions, Attitudes, and Needs of Forest Service Resource Managers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlos Rodriguez-Franco; Tara J. Haan

    2015-01-01

    Surveys were collected to assess Forest Service (FS) resource managers' perceptions, attitudes, and informational needs related to climate change and its potential impacts on forests and grasslands. Resource managers with three background types were surveyed. All participants generally considered themselves to be well-informed on climate change issues, although...

  1. 'Linkage' pharmaceutical evergreening in Canada and Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faunce, Thomas A; Lexchin, Joel

    2007-01-01

    'Evergreening' is not a formal concept of patent law. It is best understood as a social idea used to refer to the myriad ways in which pharmaceutical patent owners utilise the law and related regulatory processes to extend their high rent-earning intellectual monopoly privileges, particularly over highly profitable (either in total sales volume or price per unit) 'blockbuster' drugs. Thus, while the courts are an instrument frequently used by pharmaceutical brand name manufacturers to prolong their patent royalties, 'evergreening' is rarely mentioned explicitly by judges in patent protection cases. The term usually refers to threats made to competitors about a brand-name manufacturer's tactical use of pharmaceutical patents (including over uses, delivery systems and even packaging), not to extension of any particular patent over an active product ingredient. This article focuses in particular on the 'evergreening' potential of so-called 'linkage' provisions, imposed on the regulatory (safety, quality and efficacy) approval systems for generic pharmaceuticals of Canada and Australia, by specific articles in trade agreements with the US. These 'linkage' provisions have also recently appeared in the Korea-US Free Trade Agreement (KORUSFTA). They require such drug regulators to facilitate notification of, or even prevent, any potential patent infringement by a generic pharmaceutical manufacturer. This article explores the regulatory lessons to be learnt from Canada's and Australia's shared experience in terms of minimizing potential adverse impacts of such 'linkage evergreening' provisions on drug costs and thereby potentially on citizen's access to affordable, essential medicines. PMID:17543113

  2. Polar Bears or People?: How Framing Can Provide a Useful Analytic Tool to Understand & Improve Climate Change Communication in Classrooms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busch, K. C.

    2014-12-01

    Not only will young adults bear the brunt of climate change's effects, they are also the ones who will be required to take action - to mitigate and to adapt. The Next Generation Science Standards include climate change, ensuring the topic will be covered in U.S. science classrooms in the near future. Additionally, school is a primary source of information about climate change for young adults. The larger question, though, is how can the teaching of climate change be done in such a way as to ascribe agency - a willingness to act - to students? Framing - as both a theory and an analytic method - has been used to understand how language in the media can affect the audience's intention to act. Frames function as a two-way filter, affecting both the message sent and the message received. This study adapted both the theory and the analytic methods of framing, applying them to teachers in the classroom to answer the research question: How do teachers frame climate change in the classroom? To answer this question, twenty-five lessons from seven teachers were analyzed using semiotic discourse analysis methods. It was found that the teachers' frames overlapped to form two distinct discourses: a Science Discourse and a Social Discourse. The Science Discourse, which was dominant, can be summarized as: Climate change is a current scientific problem that will have profound global effects on the Earth's physical systems. The Social Discourse, used much less often, can be summarized as: Climate change is a future social issue because it will have negative impacts at the local level on people. While it may not be surprising that the Science Discourse was most often heard in these science classrooms, it is possibly problematic if it were the only discourse used. The research literature on framing indicates that the frames found in the Science Discourse - global scale, scientific statistics and facts, and impact on the Earth's systems - are not likely to inspire action-taking. This

  3. Linkage to HIV care and antiretroviral therapy in Cape Town, South Africa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katharina Kranzer

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Antiretroviral therapy (ART has been scaled-up rapidly in Africa. Programme reports typically focus on loss to follow-up and mortality among patients receiving ART. However, little is known about linkage and retention in care of individuals prior to starting ART.Data on adult residents from a periurban community in Cape Town were collected at a primary care clinic and hospital. HIV testing registers, CD4 count results provided by the National Health Laboratory System and ART registers were linked. A random sample (n = 885 was drawn from adults testing HIV positive through antenatal care, sexual transmitted disease and voluntary testing and counseling services between January 2004 and March 2009. All adults (n = 103 testing HIV positive through TB services during the same time period were also included in the study. Linkage to HIV care was defined as attending for a CD4 count measurement within 6 months of HIV diagnosis. Linkage to ART care was defined as initiating ART within 6 months of HIV diagnosis in individuals with a CD4 count ≤200 cells/µl taken within 6 months of HIV diagnosis.Only 62.6% of individuals attended for a CD4 count measurement within 6 months of testing HIV positive. Individuals testing through sexually transmitted infection services had the best (84.1% and individuals testing on their own initiative (53.5% the worst linkage to HIV care. One third of individuals with timely CD4 counts were eligible for ART and 66.7% of those were successfully linked to ART care. Linkage to ART care was highest among antenatal care clients. Among individuals not yet eligible for ART only 46.3% had a repeat CD4 count. Linkage to HIV care improved in patients tested in more recent calendar period.Linkage to HIV and ART care was low in this poor peri-urban community despite free services available within close proximity. More efforts are needed to link VCT scale-up to subsequent care.

  4. Model-Based Knowing: How Do Students Ground Their Understanding About Climate Systems in Agent-Based Computer Models?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markauskaite, Lina; Kelly, Nick; Jacobson, Michael J.

    2017-12-01

    This paper gives a grounded cognition account of model-based learning of complex scientific knowledge related to socio-scientific issues, such as climate change. It draws on the results from a study of high school students learning about the carbon cycle through computational agent-based models and investigates two questions: First, how do students ground their understanding about the phenomenon when they learn and solve problems with computer models? Second, what are common sources of mistakes in students' reasoning with computer models? Results show that students ground their understanding in computer models in five ways: direct observation, straight abstraction, generalisation, conceptualisation, and extension. Students also incorporate into their reasoning their knowledge and experiences that extend beyond phenomena represented in the models, such as attitudes about unsustainable carbon emission rates, human agency, external events, and the nature of computational models. The most common difficulties of the students relate to seeing the modelled scientific phenomenon and connecting results from the observations with other experiences and understandings about the phenomenon in the outside world. An important contribution of this study is the constructed coding scheme for establishing different ways of grounding, which helps to understand some challenges that students encounter when they learn about complex phenomena with agent-based computer models.

  5. Microbial contributions to climate change through carbon cycle feedbacks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bardgett, Richard D; Freeman, Chris; Ostle, Nicholas J

    2008-08-01

    There is considerable interest in understanding the biological mechanisms that regulate carbon exchanges between the land and atmosphere, and how these exchanges respond to climate change. An understanding of soil microbial ecology is central to our ability to assess terrestrial carbon cycle-climate feedbacks, but the complexity of the soil microbial community and the many ways that it can be affected by climate and other global changes hampers our ability to draw firm conclusions on this topic. In this paper, we argue that to understand the potential negative and positive contributions of soil microbes to land-atmosphere carbon exchange and global warming requires explicit consideration of both direct and indirect impacts of climate change on microorganisms. Moreover, we argue that this requires consideration of complex interactions and feedbacks that occur between microbes, plants and their physical environment in the context of climate change, and the influence of other global changes which have the capacity to amplify climate-driven effects on soil microbes. Overall, we emphasize the urgent need for greater understanding of how soil microbial ecology contributes to land-atmosphere carbon exchange in the context of climate change, and identify some challenges for the future. In particular, we highlight the need for a multifactor experimental approach to understand how soil microbes and their activities respond to climate change and consequences for carbon cycle feedbacks.

  6. A 'Healthy Islands' framework for climate change in the Pacific.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McIver, Lachlan; Bowen, Kathryn; Hanna, Elizabeth; Iddings, Steven

    2017-06-01

    Small Pacific Island countries (PICs) are among the most vulnerable countries in the world to the anticipated detrimental health effects of climate change. The assessment of health vulnerabilities and planning adaptation strategies to minimize the impacts of climate change on health tests traditional health governance structures and depends on strong linkages and partnerships between actors involved in these vital processes. This article reviews the actors, processes and contexts of the climate change and health vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning project carried out by the World Health Organization and health sector partners in three island countries in the Micronesian region of the Pacific throughout 2010 and 2011: Federated States of Micronesia, Marshall Islands and Palau. Despite their shared history and cultural characteristics, the findings and implications of this article are considered to have substantial relevance and potential application to other PICs. The modified 'Healthy Islands' framework for climate change and health adaptation presented in this article draws upon real-world experience and governance theory from both the health and climate change literature and, for the first time, places health systems adaptation within the vision for 'Healthy Islands' in the Pacific region. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  7. Understanding the Concept of Food Sovereignty Using the Ghana School Feeding Program

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Quaye, W.; Ruivenkamp, G.T.P.; Frempong, G.; Essegbey, G.

    2010-01-01

    This article deepens the understanding of the emerging food sovereignty concept using a case study of a home-grown school feeding programme that promotes local food demand - supply linkages. A school feeding programme in four selected districts in Ghana is analysed with respect to community

  8. Understanding of crop phenology using satellite-based retrievals and climate factors – a case study on spring maize in Northeast China plain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shuai, Yanmin; Xie, Donghui; Wang, Peijuan; Wu, Menxin

    2014-01-01

    Land surface phenology is an efficient bio-indicator for monitoring terrestrial ecosystem variation in response to climate change. Numerous studies point out climate change plays an important role in modulating vegetation phenological events, especially in agriculture. In turn, surface changes caused by geo-biological processes can affect climate transition regionally and perhaps globally, as concluded by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2001. Large amounts of research concluded that crops, as one of the most sensitive bio-indicators for climate change, can be strongly influenced by local weather such as temperature, moisture and radiation. Thus, investigating the details of weather impact and the feedback from crops can help improve our understanding of the interaction between crops and climate change at satellite scale. Our efforts start from this point, via case studies over the famous agriculture region in the Northeast China's plain to examine the response of spring maize under temperature and moisture stress. MODIS-based daily green vegetation information together with frequent field specification of the surface phenology as well as continuous measurements of the routine climatic factors during seven years (2003-2009) is used in this paper. Despite the obvious difference in scale between satellite estimations and field observations, the inter- and intra-annual variation of maize in seven-years' growth was captured successfully over three typical spring maize regions (Fuyu, Changling, and Hailun) in Northeast China. The results demonstrate that weather conditions such as changes of temperature and moisture stress provide considerable contribution to the year-to-year variations in the timing of spring maize phenological events

  9. Cytogenetical anchoring of sheep linkage map and syntenic groups using a sheep BAC library

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cribiu Edmond-Paul

    2000-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract In order to simultaneously integrate linkage and syntenic groups to the ovine chromosomal map, a sheep bacterial artificial chromosome (BAC library was screened with previously assigned microsatellites using a sheep-hamster hybrid panel and genetic linkage. Thirty-three BACs were obtained, fluorescently labelled and hybridised on sheep-goat hybrid metaphases (2n = 57. This study allowed us, (i, to anchor all linkage groups on sheep chromosomes, (ii, to give information on the probable position of the centromere on the linkage map for the centromeric chromosomes, (iii, to contradict the previous orientation of the ovine × linkage group by the mapping of BMS1008 on OARXq38. Concerning our somatic cell hybrid panel, this study resulted in the assignment of all the previously unassigned groups to ovine chromosomes and a complete characterisation of the hybrid panel. In addition, since hybridisations were performed on a sheep-goat hybrid, new marker/anchoring points were added to the caprine cytogenetic map.

  10. Electricity Consumption Risk Map - The use of Urban Climate Mapping for smarter analysis: Case study for Birmingham, UK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antunes Azevedo, Juliana; Burghardt, René; Chapman, Lee; Katzchner, Lutz; Muller, Catherine L.

    2015-04-01

    Climate is a key driving factor in energy consumption. However, income, vegetation, building mass structure, topography also impact on the amount of energy consumption. In a changing climate, increased temperatures are likely to lead to increased electricity consumption, affecting demand, distribution and generation. Furthermore, as the world population becomes more urbanized, increasing numbers of people will need to deal with not only increased temperatures from climate change, but also from the unintentional modification of the urban climate in the form of urban heat islands. Hence, climate and climate change needs to be taken into account for future urban planning aspects to increase the climate and energy resilience of the community and decrease the future social and economic costs. Geographical Information Systems provide a means to create urban climate maps as part of the urban planning process. Geostatistical analyses linking these maps with demographic and social data, enables a geo-statistical analysis to identify linkages to high-risk groups of the community and vulnerable areas of town and cities. Presently, the climatope classification is oriented towards thermal aspects and the ventilation quality (roughness) of the urban areas but can also be adapted to take into account other structural "environmental factors". This study aims to use the climatope approach to predict areas of potential high electricity consumption in Birmingham, UK. Several datasets were used to produce an average surface temperature map, vegetation map, land use map, topography map, building height map, built-up area roughness calculations, an average air temperature map and a domestic electricity consumption map. From the correlations obtained between the layers it is possible to average the importance of each factor and create a map for domestic electricity consumption to understand the influence of environmental aspects on spatial energy consumption. Based on these results city

  11. Learning effects of interactive decision-making processes for climate change adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baird, J.; Plummer, R.; Haug, C.C.; Huitema, D.

    2014-01-01

    Learning is gaining attention in relation to governance processes for contemporary environmental challenges; however, scholarship at the nexus of learning and environmental governance lacks clarity and understanding about how to define and measure learning, and the linkages between learning, social

  12. Need of paleoclimatic reconstructions to understand natural and anthropogenic climatic hazards

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Nigam, R.

    in monsoon rainfall as her economy largely depends on rainfall. Such climatic events (floods, droughts etc.) and their effects on society were recorded right from early historic period. Such historical climatic records are mostly available in the inscriptions... are most severe natural calamities that affect Indian coasts which causes a huge loss of lives and wealth. To predict such events, the knowledge of past events during the historic as well as pre-historic periods is very much required. The recent study...

  13. Understanding north-western Mediterranean climate variability: a multi-proxy and multi-sequence approach based on wavelet analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azuara, Julien; Lebreton, Vincent; Jalali, Bassem; Sicre, Marie-Alexandrine; Sabatier, Pierre; Dezileau, Laurent; Peyron, Odile; Frigola, Jaime; Combourieu-Nebout, Nathalie

    2017-04-01

    Forcings and physical mechanisms underlying Holocene climate variability still remain poorly understood. Comparison of different paleoclimatic reconstructions using spectral analysis allows to investigate their common periodicities and helps to understand the causes of past climate changes. Wavelet analysis applied on several proxy time series from the Atlantic domain already revealed the first key-issues on the origin of Holocene climate variability. However the differences in duration, resolution and variance between the time-series are important issues for comparing paleoclimatic sequences in the frequency domain. This work compiles 7 paleoclimatic proxy records from 4 time-series from the north-western Mediterranean all ranging from 7000 to 1000 yrs cal BP: -pollen and clay mineral contents from the lagoonal sediment core PB06 recovered in southern France, -Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) derived from alkenones, concentration of terrestrial alkanes and their average chain length (ACL) from core KSGC-31_GolHo-1B recovered in the Gulf of Lion inner-shelf, - δ18O record from speleothems recovered in the Asiul Cave in north-western Spain, -grain size record from the deep basin sediment drift core MD99-2343 north of Minorca island. A comparison of their frequency content is proposed using wavelet analysis and cluster analysis of wavelet power spectra. Common cyclicities are assessed using cross-wavelet analysis. In addition, a new algorithm is used in order to propagate the age model errors within wavelet power spectra. Results are consistents with a non-stationnary Holocene climate variability. The Halstatt cycles (2000-2500 years) depicted in many proxies (ACL, errestrial alkanes and SSTs) demonstrate solar activity influence in the north-western Mediterranean climate. Cluster analysis shows that pollen and ACL proxies, both indicating changes in aridity, are clearly distinct from other proxies and share significant common periodicities around 1000 and 600 years

  14. The ties that bind: interorganizational linkages and physician-system alignment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, J A; Waters, T M; Burns, L R; Shortell, S M; Gillies, R R; Budetti, P P; Zuckerman, H S

    2001-07-01

    To examine the association between the degree of alignment between physicians and health care systems, and interorganizational linkages between physician groups and health care systems. The study used a cross sectional, comparative analysis using a sample of 1,279 physicians practicing in loosely affiliated arrangements and 1,781 physicians in 61 groups closely affiliated with 14 vertically integrated health systems. Measures of physician alignment were based on multiitem scales validated in previous studies and derived from surveys sent to individual physicians. Measures of interorganizational linkages were specified at the institutional, administrative, and technical core levels of the physician group and were developed from surveys sent to the administrator of each of the 61 physician groups in the sample. Two stage Heckman models with fixed effects adjustments in the second stage were used to correct for sample selection and clustering respectively. After accounting for sample selection, fixed effects, and group and individual controls, physicians in groups with more valued practice service linkages display consistently higher alignment with systems than physicians in groups that have fewer such linkages. Results also suggest that centralized administrative control lowers physician-system alignment for selected measures of alignment. Governance interlocks exhibited only weak associations with alignment. Our findings suggest that alignment generally follows resource exchanges that promote value-added contributions to physicians and physician groups while preserving control and authority within the group.

  15. Broad scan linkage analysis in a large Tourette family pedigree

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peiffer, A.; Leppert, M. [Univ. of Utah Health Sciences Center, Salt Lake City, UT (United States); Wetering, B.J.M. van der [Univ. Hospital Rotterdam (Netherlands)

    1994-09-01

    Attempts to find a gene causing Tourette syndrome (TS) using linkage analysis have been unsuccessful even though as much as 65% of the autosomal genetic map has been excluded by the pooled results from several laboratories collaborating worldwide. One reason for this failure may be the misclassification of affection status of marry-in spouses. Specifically, we have found that six unrelated spouses in our Utah TS pedigree suffer from TS, obsessive-compulsive disorder or chronic motor tics. In light of these findings we decided to conduct a complete genomic scan from this Utah kindred with polymorphic markers in three related sibships in which there was no assortative mating. A linkage study assuming autosomal dominant inheritance was done using tetranucleotide repeat markers developed at the University of Utah. We selected markers that were less than 300 bp in size and that gave a heterozygosity of over 70% upon analysis in 4 CEPH families. Results to date with 95 markers run at an interval of 30 cM (covering 61% of the genome) show no evidence of linkage. We intend to extend the coverage to 100% of the genome. Pending completion of this scan, failure to provide evidence of linkage in our TS pedigree might then be attributed to phenotypic misclassification or erroneous assumptions regarding the genetic model of transmission.

  16. Impact of the Hepatitis Testing and Linkage to Care (HepTLC) Initiative on Linkage to Care for Minnesota Refugees with Hepatitis B, 2012–2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sweet, Kristin A.; Nelson, Kailey; Mamo, Blain; Chute, Sara M.

    2016-01-01

    Objective The Hepatitis Testing and Linkage to Care (HepTLC) initiative promoted viral hepatitis B and hepatitis C screening, posttest counseling, and linkage to care at 34 U.S. sites from 2012 to 2014. Through the HepTLC initiative, the Minnesota Department of Health (MDH) and clinic partners began conducting linkage-to-care activities with hepatitis B-positive refugees in October 2012. This intervention provided culturally appropriate support to link refugees to follow-up care for hepatitis B. Methods MDH refugee health and viral hepatitis surveillance programs, along with clinics that screened newly arrived refugees in Hennepin and Ramsey counties in Minnesota, collaborated on the project, which took place from October 1, 2012, through September 30, 2014. Bilingual care navigators contacted refugees to provide education, make appointments, and arrange transportation. We compared the linkage-to-care rate for participants with the rates for refugees screened the year before project launch using a two-sample test of proportions. Results In the year preceding the project (October 2011 through September 2012), 87 newly arrived refugees had a positive hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) test. Fifty-six (64%) refugees received follow-up care, 12 (14%) refugees did not receive follow-up care, and 19 (22%) refugees could not be located and had no record of follow-up care. During the project, 174 HBsAg-positive, newly arrived refugees were screened. Of those 174 refugees, 162 (93%) received follow-up care, seven (4%) did not receive follow-up care, and five (3%) could not be located and had no record of follow-up care. The one-year linkage-to-care rate for project participants (93%) was significantly higher than the rate for refugees screened the previous year (64%) (prefugees. PMID:27168670

  17. Allele-sharing models: LOD scores and accurate linkage tests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kong, A; Cox, N J

    1997-11-01

    Starting with a test statistic for linkage analysis based on allele sharing, we propose an associated one-parameter model. Under general missing-data patterns, this model allows exact calculation of likelihood ratios and LOD scores and has been implemented by a simple modification of existing software. Most important, accurate linkage tests can be performed. Using an example, we show that some previously suggested approaches to handling less than perfectly informative data can be unacceptably conservative. Situations in which this model may not perform well are discussed, and an alternative model that requires additional computations is suggested.

  18. Water balance in the complex mountainous terrain of Bhutan and linkages to land use

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ugyen Dorji

    2016-09-01

    Study Focus: Located in the Himalayas with elevation ranging 100–7550 m and with an area equivalent to Switzerland, Bhutan has great biodiversity despite its small area. A monsoon-dominated climate causes generally wet summer and dry winter. Bhutan is highly dependent of climatic conditions for its developmental activities. Using multiple regression analysis we have established models to predict the evapotranspiration (ETo and water balance and test the linkage to vegetation and land cover using meteorological data from 70 weather stations across Bhutan. Temperature-based ETo equations were evaluated in reference to the Penman-Monteith (PM method and a calibrated Hargreaves (H equation was used for computing the ETo. New Hydrological Insights for the Region. The calibrated Hargreaves equation gave good estimates of average daily ETo comparable to the PM ETo. The spatial variation in PM ETo is linked to variation in sunshine hours in summer and temperature in other seasons. Seasonal and annual ETo was mainly affected by elevation and latitude, which is linked to temperature and sunshine duration. Precipitation and water balance correlated positively with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI while ETo correlated negatively. Our models for predicting ETo and water balances performed clearly better than the global CRU gridded data for Bhutan. A positive water balance is found in broadleaf forest areas and small or negative water balance for coniferous forests.

  19. Quantitative linkage genome scan for atopy in a large collection of Caucasian families

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Webb, BT; van den Oord, E; Akkari, A

    2007-01-01

    adulthood, asthma is frequently associated also with quantitative measures of atopy. Genome wide quantitative multipoint linkage analysis was conducted for serum IgE levels and percentage of positive skin prick test (SPT(per)) using three large groups of families originally ascertained for asthma....... In this report, 438 and 429 asthma families were informative for linkage using IgE and SPT(per) which represents 690 independent families. Suggestive linkage (LOD >/= 2) was found on chromosomes 1, 3, and 8q with maximum LODs of 2.34 (IgE), 2.03 (SPT(per)), and 2.25 (IgE) near markers D1S1653, D3S2322-D3S1764...... represents one of the biggest genome scans so far reported for asthma related phenotypes. This study also demonstrates the utility of increased sample sizes and quantitative phenotypes in linkage analysis of complex disorders....

  20. Methane Feedbacks to the Global Climate System in a Warmer World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dean, Joshua F.; Middelburg, Jack J.; Röckmann, Thomas; Aerts, Rien; Blauw, Luke G.; Egger, Matthias; Jetten, Mike S. M.; de Jong, Anniek E. E.; Meisel, Ove H.; Rasigraf, Olivia; Slomp, Caroline P.; in't Zandt, Michiel H.; Dolman, A. J.

    2018-03-01

    Methane (CH4) is produced in many natural systems that are vulnerable to change under a warming climate, yet current CH4 budgets, as well as future shifts in CH4 emissions, have high uncertainties. Climate change has the potential to increase CH4 emissions from critical systems such as wetlands, marine and freshwater systems, permafrost, and methane hydrates, through shifts in temperature, hydrology, vegetation, landscape disturbance, and sea level rise. Increased CH4 emissions from these systems would in turn induce further climate change, resulting in a positive climate feedback. Here we synthesize biological, geochemical, and physically focused CH4 climate feedback literature, bringing together the key findings of these disciplines. We discuss environment-specific feedback processes, including the microbial, physical, and geochemical interlinkages and the timescales on which they operate, and present the current state of knowledge of CH4 climate feedbacks in the immediate and distant future. The important linkages between microbial activity and climate warming are discussed with the aim to better constrain the sensitivity of the CH4 cycle to future climate predictions. We determine that wetlands will form the majority of the CH4 climate feedback up to 2100. Beyond this timescale, CH4 emissions from marine and freshwater systems and permafrost environments could become more important. Significant CH4 emissions to the atmosphere from the dissociation of methane hydrates are not expected in the near future. Our key findings highlight the importance of quantifying whether CH4 consumption can counterbalance CH4 production under future climate scenarios.