WorldWideScience

Sample records for undermine public confidence

  1. Nuclear power: restoring public confidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnold, L.

    1986-01-01

    The paper concerns a one day conference on nuclear power organised by the Centre for Science Studies and Science Policy, Lancaster, April 1986. Following the Chernobyl reactor accident, the conference concentrated on public confidence in nuclear power. Causes of lack of public confidence, public perceptions of risk, and the effect of Chernobyl in the United Kingdom, were all discussed. A Select Committee on the Environment examined the problems of radioactive waste disposal. (U.K.)

  2. Public confidence and nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chaussade, J.P.

    1990-01-01

    Today in France there are 54 nuclear power units in operation at 18 sites. They supply 75% of all electricity produced, 12% of which is exported to neighbouring countries, and play an important role in the French economy. For the French, nuclear power is a fact of life, and most accept it. However, the accident of Chernobyl has made public opinion more sensitive, and the public relations work has had to be reconsidered carefully with a view to increase the confidence of the French public in nuclear power, anticipating media crises and being equipped to deal with such crises. The three main approaches are the following: keeping the public better informed, providing clear information at time of crisis and international activities

  3. Individuals with high obsessive-compulsive tendencies or undermined confidence rely more on external proxies to access their internal states.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhongming; Wang, Mengyun; Miao, Xiaocui; Li, Yijuan; Hitchman, Glenn; Yuan, Zhen

    2017-03-01

    The Seeking Proxies for Internal States (SPIS) hypothesis predicts that obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) is associated with a deficit in subjective convictions, which may lead to a reliance on external substitutes for the perceptions of an individual's internal states. Two well-designed studies were performed for the present work that adopted a false bio-feedback procedure in a muscle tension task to examine the SPIS hypothesis. The false bio-feedback paradigm was used to investigate our hypothesis. NeXus-10 Mark II hardware and V2011 BioTrace + software (Mind Media B.V., Herten, Netherlands) were utilized to measure the muscle tension of the flexor carpiulnaris muscle, which characterized the target's internal state. In addition, false EMG changes were recorded and displayed on a computer monitor and were considered external proxies. Study 1 demonstrated that the participants with high obsessive-compulsive (OC) tendencies were more affected by the false bio-feedback and exhibited lower confidence in their judgments regarding their muscle tension compared with the participants with low OC tendencies. These findings indicate that subjects with high OC tendencies were more influenced by self-perception effects. In contrast, the subjects in the undermined confidence group in Study 2 were more easily influenced by the false bio-feedback compared with the control group, which suggests that the subjects in the undermined confidence group were more affected by self-perception effects. We did not combine the undermined confidence with OC tendencies or OCD symptoms in our paradigm to investigate their joint effects on self-perception. Our findings provide further evidence that supports the SPIS hypothesis, which indicates that OC tendencies and the confidence in an individual's recognition of internal states appear to have similar effects on the assessment of internal states and reliance on proxies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Confidence Building Strategies in the Public Schools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achilles, C. M.; And Others

    1985-01-01

    Data from the Phi Delta Kappa Commission on Public Confidence in Education indicate that "high-confidence" schools make greater use of marketing and public relations strategies. Teacher attitudes were ranked first and administrator attitudes second by 409 respondents for both gain and loss of confidence in schools. (MLF)

  5. Winning Public Confidence in Sellafield

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Preece, J. A.

    1991-01-01

    BNF operates the nuclear fuel reprocessing and waste management centre of Sellafield in North West England. It is the largest nuclear site in Britain and perhaps the most famous nuclear plant in Western Europe. It is famous largely because it has long been the target of anti-nuclear interests. Well organised, well funded and well informed anti-nuclear organisations, notably including Green peace and Friends of the Earth, have made propaganda capital based on a number of controversial claims: - that by importing spent nuclear fuel from overseas for reprocessing at Sellafield, BNFL was turning Britain into a nuclear dustbin for the world. That discharges of low level radioactivity from Sellafield cause unacceptable nuclear pollution and endanger health, that the radioactivity in store in various forms on site at Sellafield, for which no permanent disposal routes are yet available, are a danger to the public and constantly threaten a major nuclear accident

  6. Building Public Confidence in Nuclear Activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Isaacs, T

    2002-01-01

    Achieving public acceptance has become a central issue in discussions regarding the future of nuclear power and associated nuclear activities. Effective public communication and public participation are often put forward as the key building blocks in garnering public acceptance. A recent international workshop in Finland provided insights into other features that might also be important to building and sustaining public confidence in nuclear activities. The workshop was held in Finland in close cooperation with Finnish stakeholders. This was most appropriate because of the recent successes in achieving positive decisions at the municipal, governmental, and Parliamentary levels, allowing the Finnish high-level radioactive waste repository program to proceed, including the identification and approval of a proposed candidate repository site. Much of the workshop discussion appropriately focused on the roles of public participation and public communications in building public confidence. It was clear that well constructed and implemented programs of public involvement and communication and a sense of fairness were essential in building the extent of public confidence needed to allow the repository program in Finland to proceed. It was also clear that there were a number of other elements beyond public involvement that contributed substantially to the success in Finland to date. And, in fact, it appeared that these other factors were also necessary to achieving the Finnish public acceptance. In other words, successful public participation and communication were necessary but not sufficient. What else was important? Culture, politics, and history vary from country to country, providing differing contexts for establishing and maintaining public confidence. What works in one country will not necessarily be effective in another. Nonetheless, there appear to be certain elements that might be common to programs that are successful in sustaining public confidence and some of

  7. Building Public Confidence in Nuclear Activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Isaacs, T

    2002-01-01

    Achieving public acceptance has become a central issue in discussions regarding the future of nuclear power and associated nuclear activities. Effective public communication and public participation are often put forward as the key building blocks in garnering public acceptance. A recent international workshop in Finland provided insights into other features that might also be important to building and sustaining public confidence in nuclear activities. The workshop was held in Finland in close cooperation with Finnish stakeholders. This was most appropriate because of the recent successes in achieving positive decisions at the municipal, governmental, and Parliamentary levels, allowing the Finnish high-level radioactive waste repository program to proceed, including the identification and approval of a proposed candidate repository site Much of the workshop discussion appropriately focused on the roles of public participation and public communications in building public confidence. It was clear that well constructed and implemented programs of public involvement and communication and a sense of fairness were essential in building the extent of public confidence needed to allow the repository program in Finland to proceed. It was also clear that there were a number of other elements beyond public involvement that contributed substantially to the success in Finland to date. And, in fact, it appeared that these other factors were also necessary to achieving the Finnish public acceptance. In other words, successful public participation and communication were necessary but not sufficient. What else was important? Culture, politics, and history vary from country to country, providing differing contexts for establishing and maintaining public confidence. What works in one country will not necessarily be effective in another. Nonetheless, there appear to be certain elements that might be common to programs that are successful in sustaining public confidence, and some of

  8. How do regulators measure public confidence?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmitt, A.; Besenyei, E.

    2006-01-01

    The conclusions and recommendations of this session can be summarized this way. - There are some important elements of confidence: visibility, satisfaction, credibility and reputation. The latter can consist of trust, positive image and knowledge of the role the organisation plays. A good reputation is hard to achieve but easy to lose. - There is a need to define what public confidence is and what to measure. The difficulty is that confidence is a matter of perception of the public, so what we try to measure is the perception. - It is controversial how to take into account the results of confidence measurement because of the influence of the context. It is not an exact science, results should be examined cautiously and surveys should be conducted frequently, at least every two years. - Different experiences were explained: - Quantitative surveys - among the general public or more specific groups like the media; - Qualitative research - with test groups and small panels; - Semi-quantitative studies - among stakeholders who have regular contracts with the regulatory body. It is not clear if the results should be shared with the public or just with other authorities and governmental organisations. - Efforts are needed to increase visibility, which is a prerequisite for confidence. - A practical example of organizing an emergency exercise and an information campaign without taking into account the real concerns of the people was given to show how public confidence can be decreased. - We learned about a new method - the so-called socio-drama - which addresses another issue also connected to confidence - the notion of understanding between stakeholders around a nuclear site. It is another way of looking at confidence in a more restricted group. (authors)

  9. Challenge for reconstruction of public confidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuura, S.

    2001-01-01

    Past incidents and scandals that have had a large influence on damaging public confidence in nuclear energy safety are presented. Radiation leak on nuclear-powered ship 'Mutsu' (1974), the T.M.I. incident in 1979, Chernobyl accident (1986), the sodium leak at the Monju reactor (1995), fire and explosion at a low level waste asphalt solidification facility (1997), J.C.O. incident (Tokai- MURA, 1999), are so many examples that have created feelings of distrust and anxiety in society. In order to restore public confidence there is no other course but to be prepared for difficulty and work honestly to our fullest ability, with all steps made openly and accountably. (N.C.)

  10. Considering public confidence in developing regulatory programs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Collins, S.J.

    2001-01-01

    In the area of public trust and in any investment, planning and strategy are important. While it is accepted in the United States that an essential part of our mission is to leverage our resources to improving Public Confidence this performance goal must be planned for, managed and measured. Similar to our premier performance goal of Maintaining Safety, a strategy must be developed and integrated with our external stake holders but with internal regulatory staff as well. In order to do that, business is to be conducted in an open environment, the basis for regulatory decisions has to be available through public documents and public meetings, communication must be done in clear and consistent terms. (N.C.)

  11. Transparency as an element of public confidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, H.K.

    2007-01-01

    In the modern society, there is increasing demands for greater transparency. It has been discussed with respect to corruption or ethics issues in social science. The need for greater openness and transparency in nuclear regulation is widely recognised as public expectations on regulator grow. It is also related to the digital and information technology that enables disclosures of every activity and information of individual and organisation, characterised by numerous 'small brothers'. Transparency has become a key word in this ubiquitous era. Transparency in regulatory activities needs to be understood in following contexts. First, transparency is one of elements to build public confidence in regulator and eventually to achieve regulatory goal of providing the public with satisfaction at nuclear safety. Transparent bases of competence, independence, ethics and integrity of working process of regulatory body would enhance public confidence. Second, activities transmitting information on nuclear safety and preparedness to be accessed are different types of transparency. Communication is an active method of transparency. With increasing use of web-sites, 'digital transparency' is also discussed as passive one. Transparency in regulatory process may be more important than that of contents. Simply providing more information is of little value and specific information may need to be protected for security reason. Third, transparency should be discussed in international, national and organizational perspectives. It has been demanded through international instruments. for each country, transparency is demanded by residents, public, NGOs, media and other stakeholders. Employees also demand more transparency in operating and regulatory organisations. Whistle-blower may appear unless they are satisfied. Fourth, pursuing transparency may cause undue social cost or adverse effects. Over-transparency may decrease public confidence and the process for transparency may also hinder

  12. National Debate and Public Confidence in Sweden

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindquist, Ted

    2014-01-01

    Ted Lindquist, coordinator of the Association of Swedish Municipalities with Nuclear Facilities (KSO), closed the first day of conferences. He showed what the nuclear landscape was in Sweden, and in particular that through time there has been a rather good support from the population. He explained that the reason could be the confidence of the public in the national debate. On a more local scale, Ted Lindquist showed how overwhelmingly strong the support was in towns where the industry would like to operate long-term storage facilities

  13. Comprehensive Plan for Public Confidence in Nuclear Regulator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Kwang Sik; Choi, Young Sung; Kim, Ho ki

    2008-01-01

    Public confidence in nuclear regulator has been discussed internationally. Public trust or confidence is needed for achieving regulatory goal of assuring nuclear safety to the level that is acceptable by the public or providing public ease for nuclear safety. In Korea, public ease or public confidence has been suggested as major policy goal in the 'Nuclear regulatory policy direction' annually announced. This paper reviews theory of trust, its definitions and defines nuclear safety regulation, elements of public trust or public confidence developed based on the study conducted so far. Public ease model developed and 10 measures for ensuring public confidence are also presented and future study directions are suggested

  14. Undermining Adversaries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    He, Kai

    2012-01-01

    balancing refers to a state's strategies or diplomatic efforts aiming to undermine a rival's power. By contrast, positive balancing means to strengthen a state's own power in world politics. I argue that a state's balancing strategies are shaped by the level of threat perception regarding its rival....... The higher the threat perception, the more likely it is for a state to choose positive balancing. The lower the threat perception, the more likely it is for a state to choose negative balancing. I suggest that the hegemon provides security as a public good to the international system in a unipolar world...... in which the relatively low-threat propensity of the system renders positive balancing strategies incompatible with state interests after the Cold War. Instead, states have employed various negative balancing strategies to undermine each other's power, especially when dealing with us primacy. China...

  15. Winning public confidence in radiation safety standards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skelcher, B.W.

    1982-01-01

    Evaluations using cost/benefit analysis and the ALARA principle should take account of psychological as well as material considerations. Safety is a basic human need which has to be met. It is also subjective and therefore has to be understood by the individual. The professional health physicist has a duty to see that radiation safety is understood by the general public. (author)

  16. Sustainable nuclear development and public confidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gagarinski, A.

    2000-01-01

    This report discusses the objective preconditions, which would lead the world community to acceptance of nuclear energy. The following conditions deserve special emphasis: (a) Demographic growth, resulting in the increase of energy demand and promoting the understanding of the fact, that the world energy resources are limited and all possible energy sources, including nuclear ones, should be used. (b) Development of the 'third-world' countries, creating additional energy demand, which cannot be met without nuclear power. (c) Global (and influencing the plans of each country) need of availability and acceptable costs together with reliability and safety of energy supply, and, consequently, the interest to energy sources diversification in order to eliminate the dependence of fossil fuels import. The paper considers the ways to solve this strategic task. Its solution could take a long time (several decades) and should be properly perceived by the generation of specialists now starting their career in nuclear science and industry. Now it is a good time for the new generation of nuclear specialists to solve this problem - the large-scale NPP development is not yet needed, there is a large accumulated experience and perspective ideas, and there is enough time to analyze the problems in detail, propose and prepare the solutions and convince the general public, that these solutions are correct. And then the next phase of nuclear energy development would be based not only on correct technical solutions, but also on a favourable social environment. (authors)

  17. To protect and serve: Restoring public confidence in the SAPS ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Persistent incidents of brutality, criminal behaviour and abuse of authority by members of South Africa's police agencies have serious implications for public trust and confidence in the police. A decline in trust and confidence in the police is inevitably harmful to the ability of the government to reduce crime and improve public ...

  18. Understanding public confidence in government to prevent terrorist attacks.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baldwin, T. E.; Ramaprasad, A,; Samsa, M. E.; Decision and Information Sciences; Univ. of Illinois at Chicago

    2008-04-02

    A primary goal of terrorism is to instill a sense of fear and vulnerability in a population and to erode its confidence in government and law enforcement agencies to protect citizens against future attacks. In recognition of its importance, the Department of Homeland Security includes public confidence as one of the principal metrics used to assess the consequences of terrorist attacks. Hence, a detailed understanding of the variations in public confidence among individuals, terrorist event types, and as a function of time is critical to developing this metric. In this exploratory study, a questionnaire was designed, tested, and administered to small groups of individuals to measure public confidence in the ability of federal, state, and local governments and their public safety agencies to prevent acts of terrorism. Data was collected from three groups before and after they watched mock television news broadcasts portraying a smallpox attack, a series of suicide bomber attacks, a refinery explosion attack, and cyber intrusions on financial institutions, resulting in identity theft. Our findings are: (a) although the aggregate confidence level is low, there are optimists and pessimists; (b) the subjects are discriminating in interpreting the nature of a terrorist attack, the time horizon, and its impact; (c) confidence recovery after a terrorist event has an incubation period; and (d) the patterns of recovery of confidence of the optimists and the pessimists are different. These findings can affect the strategy and policies to manage public confidence after a terrorist event.

  19. Building, measuring and improving public confidence in the nuclear regulator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    An important factor for public confidence in the nuclear regulator is the general public trust of the government and its representatives, which is clearly not the same in all countries. Likewise, cultural differences between countries can be considerable, and similar means of communication between government authorities and the public may not be universally effective. Nevertheless, this workshop identified a number of common principles for the communication of nuclear regulatory decisions that can be recommended to all regulators. They have been cited in particular for their ability to help build, measure and/or improve overall public confidence in the nuclear regulator. (author)

  20. Tobacco industry issues management organizations: Creating a global corporate network to undermine public health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malone Ruth E

    2008-01-01

    threatened by the globalization of public health, sidestep competitive concerns to coordinate their activities. The global network of national and regional manufacturing associations created and nurtured by INFOTAB remains active, particularly in relation to the recently negotiated global health treaty, the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control. Policymakers should be aware that although these associations claim to represent only national or regional interests, they are allied to and coordinated with a confederation of transnational tobacco companies seeking to protect profits by undermining public health.

  1. Tobacco industry issues management organizations: creating a global corporate network to undermine public health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDaniel, Patricia A; Intinarelli, Gina; Malone, Ruth E

    2008-01-17

    concerns to coordinate their activities. The global network of national and regional manufacturing associations created and nurtured by INFOTAB remains active, particularly in relation to the recently negotiated global health treaty, the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control. Policymakers should be aware that although these associations claim to represent only national or regional interests, they are allied to and coordinated with a confederation of transnational tobacco companies seeking to protect profits by undermining public health.

  2. Tobacco industry issues management organizations: Creating a global corporate network to undermine public health

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDaniel, Patricia A; Intinarelli, Gina; Malone, Ruth E

    2008-01-01

    public health, sidestep competitive concerns to coordinate their activities. The global network of national and regional manufacturing associations created and nurtured by INFOTAB remains active, particularly in relation to the recently negotiated global health treaty, the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control. Policymakers should be aware that although these associations claim to represent only national or regional interests, they are allied to and coordinated with a confederation of transnational tobacco companies seeking to protect profits by undermining public health. PMID:18201375

  3. Maintaining public confidence in UK nuclear safety regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, L.

    2001-01-01

    The key to maintaining stake holder confidence is competence and having the resources necessary to not only carry out regulatory functions effectively, but also to keep the public informed and respond to their questions. This does not come cheap but it is a price well worth paying. (N.C.)

  4. The effect of terrorism on public confidence : an exploratory study.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berry, M. S.; Baldwin, T. E.; Samsa, M. E.; Ramaprasad, A.; Decision and Information Sciences

    2008-10-31

    A primary goal of terrorism is to instill a sense of fear and vulnerability in a population and to erode confidence in government and law enforcement agencies to protect citizens against future attacks. In recognition of its importance, the Department of Homeland Security includes public confidence as one of the metrics it uses to assess the consequences of terrorist attacks. Hence, several factors--including a detailed understanding of the variations in public confidence among individuals, by type of terrorist event, and as a function of time--are critical to developing this metric. In this exploratory study, a questionnaire was designed, tested, and administered to small groups of individuals to measure public confidence in the ability of federal, state, and local governments and their public safety agencies to prevent acts of terrorism. Data were collected from the groups before and after they watched mock television news broadcasts portraying a smallpox attack, a series of suicide bomber attacks, a refinery bombing, and cyber intrusions on financial institutions that resulted in identity theft and financial losses. Our findings include the following: (a) the subjects can be classified into at least three distinct groups on the basis of their baseline outlook--optimistic, pessimistic, and unaffected; (b) the subjects make discriminations in their interpretations of an event on the basis of the nature of a terrorist attack, the time horizon, and its impact; (c) the recovery of confidence after a terrorist event has an incubation period and typically does not return to its initial level in the long-term; (d) the patterns of recovery of confidence differ between the optimists and the pessimists; and (e) individuals are able to associate a monetary value with a loss or gain in confidence, and the value associated with a loss is greater than the value associated with a gain. These findings illustrate the importance the public places in their confidence in government

  5. The public information challenge: confidence and credibility through communications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spence, H.J.M.

    1994-01-01

    Canada's Atomic Energy Control Board, considered the oldest independent nuclear regulatory body in the world, has made significant progress toward openness and visibility through public information policy initiatives and communications activities, particularly in the last five years. A number of public information projects are described, and successes as well as disappointments are outlined. The importance in terms of enhanced credibility and public confidence in the regulatory agency is stressed. In looking toward the future, the linking of communications to the operational functions and activities of the regulator is presented as a key requirement. (author)

  6. Public confidence, risk communication and public relations. Oeffentliches Vertrauen, Risikokommunikation und Public Relations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bentele, G. (Univ. Bamberg, Fakultaet Sprach- und Literaturwissenschaften-Kommunikationswissenschaft (Germany))

    1992-07-27

    In information societies, by far the greatest part of the information obtained and used by the public comes via the media. At the same time, only a minute portion of information used can be verified by an individual. Therefore the confidence factor gains increasing importance. This applies, particularly, to production and service sectors, which are associated with a certain risk (for instance, nuclear energy and coal). Lately, large confidence deficits have arisen - not only entailing economic drawbacks and damaging images but jeopardizing, moreover, democratic structures. Changing structures of public communication in information societies result in changed demands on corporate communication. The author points out what is needed especially in the energy sector to preserve in the long run, or regain, public confidence. (orig.).

  7. Nuclear energy communications in France: gaining public confidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chaussade, J.-P.

    1990-01-01

    Nuclear power plants today are an accepted part of the French landscape; a total of 54 units have been constructed on some 20 different sites. They have been relatively well accepted by the general public and, in particular, by those people living in the vicinity of plants. This favourable situation, however, did not come about automatically - it required a great deal of effort in terms of public information, starting during the 1970s. This effort must be maintained, especially since public confidence in nuclear energy was severely shaken by the Chernobyl accident. Our success in pursuing France's planned construction programme depends on our ability to build on this confidence. Indeed, since 1987, we have had to rethink our communications strategy. However, Electricite de France (EDF) is not alone in this; public authorities, the SCSIN (an Industry Department equivalent to the NRC), CEA (French atomic energy commission), in its capacity as a research organisation, together with plant constructor Framatome and nuclear fuel company Cogema, all have a role to play in this communications drive. The key to our communications campaign lies in listening to public opinion. Opinion polls and qualitative surveys allow us to judge public awareness and pinpoint expectations and concerns. This article summarises the main surveys we have carried out. (3 figures) (Author)

  8. Building public confidence in the world's nuclear industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duncan, C.D.

    1996-01-01

    Public confidence in the nuclear industry requires two things, which are trust and understanding. Trust is an emotional response based upon an instinctive reaction. Understanding, on the other hand, is an intellectual response based upon facts. To gain public confidence, both of these levels must be communicated and proactive strategies must be implemented to do this. To achieve this objective will require confidence and courage in communication programs. Each company operating in the nuclear sector must be proactive in building its individual reputation and must not retreat from controversy. Similarly, each industry body must continue the Herculean task of building understanding. The nuclear industry has powerful arguments. ICI, BP or Ford did not achieve their licences to operate by keeping their heads down, they achieved their current market positions by building a positive corporate reputation within their respective industrial contexts over many decades. In order to achieve a similar position for the nuclear industry and the companies, their examples must be followed. If it is continued to 'keep the heads down' in the trenches, public opinion will surely bury within it. (G.K.)

  9. Station blackout and public confidence: a cautionary tale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cave, L.

    1990-01-01

    The recent ''station blackout'' (ie loss of on-site and off-site AC power) incidents at the Vogtle PWR in the US and Hinkley Point B AGR in the Uk have led to further public concern about the safety of nuclear power, even though in each case the actual increase in the chance of an accident leading to a release of radioactivity to the environment was negligible. The industry may be wise to invest precautionary measures to reduce the frequency of such incidents and to increase public confidence. (author)

  10. What are effective techniques for improving public confidence or restoring lost confidence in a regulator?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harbitz, O.; Isaksson, R.

    2006-01-01

    The conclusions and recommendations of this session can be summarized this way. The following list contains thoughts related to restoring lost confidence: - hard, long lasting event; - strategy: maximum transparency; - to listen, be open, give phone numbers etc. - ways to rebuild trust: frequent communication, being there, open and transparent; - don't be too defensive; if things could be done better, say it; - technical staff and public affair staff together from the beginning - answer all questions; - classifications, actions, instructions that differ much from the earlier ones must be well explained and motivated - and still cause a lot of problems; - things may turn out to be political; - communicative work in an early stage saves work later; - communication experts must be working shoulder to shoulder with other staff; On handling emergencies in general, some recipes proposed are: - better to over react than to under react; - do not avoid extreme actions: hit hard, hit fast; - base your decisions in strict principles; - first principle: public safety first; - when you are realizing plant A, you must have a plant B in your pocket: - be transparent - from the beginning; - crisis communication: early, frequent etc - people need to see political leaders, someone who is making decisions - technical experts are needed but are not enough. On how to involve stakeholders and the public in decision making, recommendations are: - new kind of thinking -. demanding for a organisation; - go to local level, meet local people, speak language people understand, you have to start from the very beginning - introducing yourself tell who you are and why you are there. (authors)

  11. Does corruption undermine trust in health care? Results from public opinion polls in Croatia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radin, Dagmar

    2013-12-01

    Health and health care provision are one of the most important topics in public policy, and often a highly debated topic in the political arena. The importance of considering trust in the health care sector is highlighted by studies showing that trust is associated, among others, with poor self-related health, and poorer health outcomes. Similarly, corruption has shown to create economic costs and inefficiencies in the health care sector. This is particularly important for a newly democratized country such as Croatia, where a policy responsive government indicates a high level of quality of democracy (Roberts, 2009) and where a legacy of corruption in the health care sector has been carried over from the previous regime. In this study, I assess the relationship between health care corruption and trust in public health care and hypothesize that experience with health care corruption as well as perception of corruption has a negative effect on trust in public care facilities. Data were collected in two surveys, administered in 2007 and 2009 in Croatia. Experience with corruption and salience with corruption has a negative effect on trust in public health care in the 2007 survey, but not in the 2009 survey. While the results are mixed, they point to the importance of further studying this relationship. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. The internet trade of counterfeit spirits in Russia – an emerging problem undermining alcohol, public health and youth protection policies?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neufeld, Maria; Lachenmeier, Dirk W.; Walch, Stephan G.; Rehm, Jürgen

    2017-01-01

    Counterfeit alcohol belongs to the category of unrecorded alcohol not reflected in official statistics. The internet trade of alcoholic beverages has been prohibited by the Russian Federation since 2007, but various sellers still offer counterfeit spirits (i.e., forged brand spirits) over the internet to Russian consumers, mostly in a non-deceptive fashion at prices up to 15 times lower than in regular sale. The public health issues arising from this unregulated trade include potential harm to underage drinkers, hazards due to toxic ingredients such as methanol, but most importantly alcohol harms due to potentially increased drinking volumes due to low prices and high availability on the internet. The internet sale also undermines existing alcohol policies such as restrictions of sale locations, sale times and minimum pricing. The need to enforce measures against counterfeiting of spirits, but specifically their internet trade should be implemented as key elements of alcohol policies to reduce unrecorded alcohol consumption, which is currently about 33 % of total consumption in Russia. PMID:28663784

  13. The internet trade of counterfeit spirits in Russia - an emerging problem undermining alcohol, public health and youth protection policies?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neufeld, Maria; Lachenmeier, Dirk W; Walch, Stephan G; Rehm, Jürgen

    2017-01-01

    Counterfeit alcohol belongs to the category of unrecorded alcohol not reflected in official statistics. The internet trade of alcoholic beverages has been prohibited by the Russian Federation since 2007, but various sellers still offer counterfeit spirits (i.e., forged brand spirits) over the internet to Russian consumers, mostly in a non-deceptive fashion at prices up to 15 times lower than in regular sale. The public health issues arising from this unregulated trade include potential harm to underage drinkers, hazards due to toxic ingredients such as methanol, but most importantly alcohol harms due to potentially increased drinking volumes due to low prices and high availability on the internet. The internet sale also undermines existing alcohol policies such as restrictions of sale locations, sale times and minimum pricing. The need to enforce measures against counterfeiting of spirits, but specifically their internet trade should be implemented as key elements of alcohol policies to reduce unrecorded alcohol consumption, which is currently about 33 % of total consumption in Russia.

  14. Crisis of confidence: utilities, public relations, and credibility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sullivan, F.C.

    1977-01-01

    This book deals principally with the role of the public utility in the business sector and specifically with its patterns of communications in this turbulent era of changing public opinion. Offering the premise that time has almost run out to achieve public understanding in today's mounting energy crisis, Frank C. Sullivan diagnoses the problems, examines available communication techniques, and offers a pragmatic approach to action which will stimulate and challenge neophyte and professional alike. The book touches on the history of public relations, discusses its functions and role in utility management, and provides practical suggestions and sound advice on corporate credibility and accounting. Following a ''Rationale for Action'' the book's twenty-two chapters are grouped in four major sections: Public Relations and the Utility; Planning for Rate Increases; The Utility and its Publics, and Private vs. Public Ownership. In his epilogue, ''The Dimensions of Disbelief,'' the author sets forth his candid and provocative thesis for action and change.

  15. Student Public Speaking: Creating the Confidence, Breaking through Barriers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schornack, Gary R.; Beck, Charles E.

    As employers increase the use of teams and telecommuting in the workplace, the need for improved communication also accelerates both in written and oral modes. For oral communication or public speaking, a review of recent literature indicates this renewed emphasis, with numerous articles highlighting the need coming from disciplines ranging from…

  16. 77 FR 55833 - Announcement of Public Meeting on the Consumer Confidence Report (CCR) Rule Retrospective Review...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-11

    ... on the Consumer Confidence Report (CCR) Rule Retrospective Review and Request for Public Comment on... potential approaches for providing Consumer Confidence Reports (CCR) via electronic delivery. EPA plans to... meeting to give EPA time to process your request. Background Consumer Confidence Reports are a key part of...

  17. 77 FR 5471 - Announcement of Public Meeting on the Consumer Confidence Report (CCR) Rule Retrospective Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-02-03

    ... Announcement of Public Meeting on the Consumer Confidence Report (CCR) Rule Retrospective Review AGENCY... stakeholder input on the Consumer Confidence Report (CCR) Rule as part of the agency's Retrospective Review of... Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA, section 1414(c)). The Consumer Confidence Report, or CCR, is an annual...

  18. 77 FR 57566 - Announcement of Public Meeting on the Consumer Confidence Report (CCR) Rule Retrospective Review...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-18

    ... ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY [EPA-HQ-OW-2012-0035; FRL-9730-7] Announcement of Public Meeting on the Consumer Confidence Report (CCR) Rule Retrospective Review and Request for Public Comment on Potential Approaches to Electronic Delivery of the CCR; Correction AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency...

  19. Achieving greater public confidence in the application of transportation policies and programs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jim, R.; Stevens, D.W.

    1987-01-01

    Transportation policies deserve a higher level of priority in the national repository siting program. Affected Indian Tribes and States hold that transportation policies and activities are critical to all stages of the program. They are concerned that the lessening of public confidence brings into question the ability of DOE to successfully carry out the Congressionally-directed effort to find two suitable sites for national repositories. DOE must strive to develop a technically-excellent program and treat, with equal importance, the critical need for a more open participatory process. There are a number of ways in which program improvements can be made to assist in regaining the level of public confidence needed. An improved program will result from the application of earlier and continuous opportunities for Tribes and States to participate. The rewards will lessen delay, deal with conflict in a participatory context, and build incremently improved public confidence in the transportation element of the repository program

  20. Improving TSA’s Public Image: Customer-Focused Initiatives to Encourage Public Trust and Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-12-01

    faces, many from the old TSA, but the confidence node in their brains appeared to have been bypassed and hardwired directly to the pain center.”8...Traditions training before starting the job. During this orientation period, the Disney culture is communicated through powerful storytelling .”299 New

  1. Confidence in public institutions: A focus group study on views on the Swedish Social Insurance Agency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmgren, K; Rosstorp, F; Rohdén, H

    2016-09-27

    From a public health perspective among the working population, it is very important that confidence in the welfare system is high, ensuring the citizens economic security and protecting them from economic stress when falling ill. The aim of this study was to explore how people with experience of health insurance perceive their confidence in the Swedish Social Insurance Agency (SSIA). Eight focus groups (n = 41) were conducted and each group met on one occasion. The participants described a systemic change in the work of the SSIA where the rule-of-law was disregarded, with arbitrary assessment, and no transparency. The reception by the SSIA shaped the image of the SSIA. The participants described vulnerability in relation to the SSIA. They felt mistrusted, which left a feeling of impotence that worsened their health. Experiencing vulnerability left a strong impression and affected the participants' confidence negatively. The following has to be acknowledged to prevent clients from experiencing impaired health, promote return-to-work possibilities, and to push public confidence in the institution in a more positive direction: Politicians and public administrators need to clarify the regulations. The decision-making process needs to be transparent and just. The entire procedure, including continuity as well as a personal, nice reception, has to be ensured.

  2. Can public confidence and acceptance be won by advertising? Is such an approach defensible?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dionne-Marsolais, Rita

    1989-01-01

    In Canada, three objectives are identified that must be met in order to improve the climate of public opinion in favor of nuclear energy. They are: to establish credibility and trust in the industry; to establish acceptance and confidence in products and, increase the level of public support for the nuclear industry. A specific target group was also identified: men and women leaders of opinion in and 18 years old. A lot of research was conducted that led to establishing of four major strategies which could help achieving general objective over a time of 3 years: to open an on-going dialogue with the Canadian public; to introduce and familiarize the Canadian public with specific applications of nuclear energy; to present specific facts about nuclear energy; to monitor the results. Advertising is only one of the tools of this program. In all advertising efforts one should ensure that the public understands that this is the process of information not advocacy. This is considered as extremely important. It is believed that public confidence and acceptance can be won by advertising. Because of the actual Energy Dependency of Canada, ranking second in the world in electricity consumption per capita, and because Canada can no longer, rely on traditional great degree on damming large rivers to produce electricity, it is the duty of nuclear industry to provide information to the Canadian public in order for them to know all the facts when they are asked to choose between different forms of energy to produce electricity

  3. Can public confidence and acceptance be won by advertising? Is such an approach defensible?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dionne-Marsolais, Rita [Department of Information, Canadian Nuclear Association (Canada)

    1989-07-01

    In Canada, three objectives are identified that must be met in order to improve the climate of public opinion in favor of nuclear energy. They are: to establish credibility and trust in the industry; to establish acceptance and confidence in products and, increase the level of public support for the nuclear industry. A specific target group was also identified: men and women leaders of opinion in and 18 years old. A lot of research was conducted that led to establishing of four major strategies which could help achieving general objective over a time of 3 years: to open an on-going dialogue with the Canadian public; to introduce and familiarize the Canadian public with specific applications of nuclear energy; to present specific facts about nuclear energy; to monitor the results. Advertising is only one of the tools of this program. In all advertising efforts one should ensure that the public understands that this is the process of information not advocacy. This is considered as extremely important. It is believed that public confidence and acceptance can be won by advertising. Because of the actual Energy Dependency of Canada, ranking second in the world in electricity consumption per capita, and because Canada can no longer, rely on traditional great degree on damming large rivers to produce electricity, it is the duty of nuclear industry to provide information to the Canadian public in order for them to know all the facts when they are asked to choose between different forms of energy to produce electricity.

  4. The internet trade of counterfeit spirits in Russia – an emerging problem undermining alcohol, public health and youth protection policies? [version 2; referees: 2 approved

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Neufeld

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Counterfeit alcohol belongs to the category of unrecorded alcohol not reflected in official statistics. The internet trade of alcoholic beverages has been prohibited by the Russian Federation since 2007, but various sellers still offer counterfeit spirits (i.e., forged brand spirits over the internet to Russian consumers, mostly in a non-deceptive fashion at prices up to 15 times lower than in regular sale. The public health issues arising from this unregulated trade include potential harm to underage drinkers, hazards due to toxic ingredients such as methanol, but most importantly alcohol harms due to potentially increased drinking volumes due to low prices and high availability on the internet. The internet sale also undermines existing alcohol policies such as restrictions of sale locations, sale times and minimum pricing. The need to enforce measures against counterfeiting of spirits, but specifically their internet trade should be implemented as key elements of alcohol policies to reduce unrecorded alcohol consumption, which is currently about 33 % of total consumption in Russia.

  5. The internet trade of counterfeit spirits in Russia – an emerging problem undermining alcohol, public health and youth protection policies? [version 1; referees: 2 approved

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Neufeld

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Counterfeit alcohol belongs to the category of unrecorded alcohol not reflected in official statistics. The internet trade of alcoholic beverages has been prohibited by the Russian Federation since 2007, but various sellers still offer counterfeit spirits (i.e., forged brand spirits over the internet to Russian consumers, mostly in a non-deceptive fashion at prices up to 15 times lower than in regular sale. The public health issues arising from this unregulated trade include potential harm to underage drinkers, hazards due to toxic ingredients such as methanol, but most importantly alcohol harms due to potentially increased drinking volumes due to low prices and high availability on the internet. The internet sale also undermines existing alcohol policies such as restrictions of sale locations, sale times and minimum pricing. The need to enforce measures against counterfeiting of spirits, but specifically their internet trade should be implemented as key elements of alcohol policies to reduce unrecorded alcohol consumption, which is currently about 33 % of total consumption in Russia.

  6. Reducing public communication apprehension by boosting self confidence on communication competence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eva Rachmi

    2012-07-01

    medical doctor should be competent in communicating with others. Some students at the medical faculty Universitas Mulawarman tend to be silent at public communication training, and this is thought to be influenced by communication anxiety. This study aimed to analyze the possibility of self-confidence on communication competence and communication skills are risk factors of communication apprehension. Methods: This study was conducted on 55 students at the medical faculty Universitas Mulawarman.  Public communication apprehension was measured using the Personal Report of Communication Apprehension (PRCA-24. Confidence in communication competence was determined by the Self Perceived Communication Competence scale (SPCC.  Communication skills were based on the instructor’s score during the communication training program. Data were analyzed by linear regression to identify dominant factors using STATA 9.0. Results: The study showed a negative association between public communication apprehension and students’ self confidence in communication competence [coefficient regression (CR =-0.13; p=0.000; 95% confidence interval (CI=-0.20; -0.52]. However, it was not related to communication skills (p=0.936. Among twelve traits of self confidence on communication competence, students who had confidence to talk to a group of strangers had lower public communication apprehension (adjusted CR=-0.13; CI=-0.21; 0.05; p=0.002. Conclusions:  Increased confidence in their communication competence will reduce the degree of public communication apprehension by students. Therefore, the faculty should provide more opportunities for students to practice public communication, in particular, talking to a group of strangers more frequently. (Health Science Indones 2010; 1: 37 - 42

  7. Public confidence in the management of radioactive waste: the Canadian context

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    Public confidence is significantly affected by social considerations, such as public participation in decision-making processes, transparency of activities, access to information, effective and appropriate mitigation measures, development opportunities and social justice issues. In order to increase public confidence, there is a need to fully understand social concerns and to design an effective strategy on how to address them. This is particularly so in relation to radioactive waste management decision making. A workshop held in Ottawa in October 2002 brought together a wide range of Canadian stakeholders to present their views and to debate related issues with delegates from radioactive waste management programmes in 14 countries. This third interactive workshop of the NEA Forum on Stakeholder Confidence focused on key areas such as the social concerns at play in radioactive waste management, how these concerns can be addressed, and development opportunities for local communities. These proceedings provide a summary of the workshop, the full texts of the stakeholder presentations and detailed reports of the workshop discussions. (author)

  8. Public confidence in local management officials: organizational credibility and emergency behavior

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sorensen, J.H.

    1984-01-01

    Confidence issues create potential risks for the public in any emergency situation. They do so because credibility and associated perceptions of legitimacy and competency of organizations are determinants of human behavior in disasters. Credibility, however, is only one of numerous factors that shape response of people or organizations to a threatening event. The purposes of this paper are to review what is known about the way in which credibility and related constructs influence emergency response, discuss how this knowledge applies to radiological emergency planning, and suggest how credibility-induced risk can be minimized in emergency planning and response.

  9. Public confidence in local management officials: organizational credibility and emergency behavior

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sorensen, J.H.

    1984-01-01

    Confidence issues create potential risks for the public in any emergency situation. They do so because credibility and associated perceptions of legitimacy and competency of organizations are determinants of human behavior in disasters. Credibility, however, is only one of numerous factors that shape response of people or organizations to a threatening event. The purposes of this paper are to review what is known about the way in which credibility and related constructs influence emergency response, discuss how this knowledge applies to radiological emergency planning, and suggest how credibility-induced risk can be minimized in emergency planning and response

  10. Earning public trust and confidence: Requisites for managing radioactive wastes. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-11-01

    The Task Force on Radioactive Waste Management was created in April 1991 by former Secretary James D. Watkins, who asked the group to analyze the critical institutional question of how the Department of Energy (DOE) might strengthen public trust and confidence in the civilian radioactive waste management program. The panel met eight times over a period of 27 months and heard formal presentations from nearly 100 representatives of state and local governments, non-governmental organizations, and senior DOE Headquarters and Field Office managers. The group also commissioned a variety of studies from independent experts, contracted with the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Public Administration to hold workshops on designing and leading trust-evoking organizations, and carried out one survey of parties affected by the Department`s radioactive waste management activities and a second one of DOE employees and contractors.

  11. Earning public trust and confidence: Requisites for managing radioactive wastes. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-11-01

    The Task Force on Radioactive Waste Management was created in April 1991 by former Secretary James D. Watkins, who asked the group to analyze the critical institutional question of how the Department of Energy (DOE) might strengthen public trust and confidence in the civilian radioactive waste management program. The panel met eight times over a period of 27 months and heard formal presentations from nearly 100 representatives of state and local governments, non-governmental organizations, and senior DOE Headquarters and Field Office managers. The group also commissioned a variety of studies from independent experts, contracted with the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Public Administration to hold workshops on designing and leading trust-evoking organizations, and carried out one survey of parties affected by the Department's radioactive waste management activities and a second one of DOE employees and contractors

  12. Inefficient procurement processes undermine access to medicines in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Inefficient procurement processes undermine access to medicines in the Western ... chronic infectious and non-communicable diseases in the public sector. ... (ii) absence of contracts for certain medicines appearing on provincial code lists; ...

  13. A Threat- and Efficacy-Based Framework to Understand Confidence in Vaccines among the Public Health Workforce

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lainie Rutkow

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The Extended Parallel Process Model (EPPM is an established threat- and efficacy-based behavioral framework for understanding health behaviors in the face of uncertain risk. A growing body of research has applied this model to understand these behaviors among the public health workforce. In this manuscript, we aim to explore the application of this framework to the public health workforce, with a novel focus on their confidence in vaccines and perceptions of vaccine injury compensation mechanisms. We characterize specific connections between EPPM’s threat and efficacy dimensions and relevant vaccine policy frameworks and highlight how these connections can usefully inform training interventions for public health workers to enhance their confidence in these vaccine policy measures.

  14. Effort to earn public support and confidence in Hanford Site cleanup work

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, M.C.; Edwards, C.; Beers, A.A.

    1991-09-01

    Public involvement is needed for Hanford Site cleanup to succeed. If people do not know about, understand, and support cleanup, it will be more difficult and expensive. The Tri-Party Agreement calls for public involvement in decisions about cleanup options and schedules. This paper defines what public involvement means and how the Washington State Department of Ecology (Ecology), US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and US Department of Energy (DOE) have conducted it. Experience and survey research have shown ways to improve our performance. While we have improved our conduct of public meetings, we must identify other ways to involve the public. Efforts continue to open decision making earlier in the decision process, to share information that is clear and understandable, and to open the channels of communication. We have made good progress. We have many opportunities to continue to improve. This paper describes some of the highlights and lessons learned in public involvement in Hanford Site cleanup. 4 refs

  15. Efforts to earn public support and confidence in Hanford site cleanup work

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, M.C.; Edwards, C.; Beers, A.A.

    1991-01-01

    Public involvement is needed for Hanford Site cleanup to succeed. If people do not know about, understand, and support cleanup, it will be more difficult and expensive. The Tri-Party Agreement (1) calls for public involvement in decisions about cleanup options and schedules. This paper defines what public involvement means and how the Washington State Department of Ecology (Ecology), US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and US Department of Energy (DOE) have conducted it. Experience and survey research have shown ways to improve our performance. While we have improved our conduct of public meetings, we must identify other ways to involve the public. Efforts continue to open decision making earlier in the decision process, to share information that is clear and understandable, and to open the channels of communication. We have made good progress. We have many opportunities to continue to improve. This paper describes some of the highlights and lessons learned in public involvement in Hanford Site cleanup

  16. Governance of Banks in an Era of Regulatory Change and Declining Public Confidence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Minto, Andrea; McCormick, Roger

    2014-01-01

    Corporate governance reforms have become more intrusive for banks than might be thought appropriate for “ordinary corporates”. “Heavier” regulation in this area is justified by the public interest at stake in bank activity and the risk to the public interest if a bank is allowed to fail (and the

  17. Trends in confidence in public institutions: A comparative analysis of the Baltic countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gudžinskas Liutauras

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper focuses on the variation of institutional confidence in the Baltic countries. Within of framework of qualitative comparative framework, it employs a historical approach to detect causes of divergence of trust in rule of law institutions between Estonia vis-à-vis other two Baltic states. While it observes a range of variables that could affect the differences, it emphasises the role of political leadership during critical junctures, which might explain both why Estonia forged ahead at the outset of the post-communist transformation and most recent positive developments in the Baltic countries since the financial crisis in 2008–2010.

  18. The scientist, the paid consultant and building public confidence in waste management - A mine field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helminski, Ed; Conley, Maureen

    1992-01-01

    Differing scientific opinions that surface during the siting of nuclear waste disposal facilities present serious problems in the communication of risk to the public. In a time when public opposition to 'nuclear waste dumps' threatens to stunt the nuclear power industry, risk communication is a fundamental element of any disposal facility siting program. The public demands definitive answers and is skeptical when scientists fall to come to a consensus or put forth scientific 'truth'. The problem is compounded when questions of scientific integrity enter the picture. Two cases, the Illinois LLRW disposal facility siting process and the Yucca Mountain HLW disposal facility project, provide important illustrations of the consequences that result from breaches of scientific integrity. In both examples, investigators have been accused of bias because their data reflect serendipitous conditions at proposed waste disposal sites. In the Illinois case, scientists have confessed in public hearings to having felt under pressure to report 'positive' findings at the proposed Martinsville site. At Yucca Mountain, questions have been raised about a primary investigator who refuses to dismiss data thought to support site suitability that was obtained through experimental techniques and contradicts information provided using more accepted methods. This paper intends to explore the issues surrounding public perception and the objectivity of paid science. (author)

  19. Integrating natural and social sciences to inspire public confidence in radioactive waste policy case study - Committee on radioactive waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Usher, Sam

    2007-01-01

    Integrating Natural and Social Sciences to Inspire Public Confidence in Radioactive Waste Policy Case Study: Committee on Radioactive Waste Management Implementing effective long-term radioactive waste management policy is challenging, and both UK and international experience is littered with policy and programme failures. Policy must not only be underpinned by sound science and technical rationale, it must also inspire the confidence of the public and other stakeholders. However, in today's modern society, communities will not simply accept the word of scientists for setting policy based purely on technical grounds. This is particularly so in areas where there are significant social and ethical issues, such as radioactive waste disposal. To develop and implement effective policy, governments, waste owners and implementing bodies must develop processes which effectively integrate both complex technical and scientific issues, with equally challenging social and ethical concerns. These integrating processes must marry often intricate technical issues with broad public and stakeholder engagement programmes, in programmes which can expect the highest levels of public scrutiny, and must invariably be delivered within challenging time and budget constraints. This paper considers a model for how such integrating processes can be delivered. The paper reviews, as a case study, how such challenges were overcome by the Committee on Radioactive Waste Management (CoRWM), which, in July 2006, made recommendations to the UK government for the establishment of a long-term radioactive waste policy. Its recommendations were underpinned by sound science, but also engendered public confidence through undertaking the largest and most significant deliberative public and stakeholder engagement programme on a complex policy issue in the UK. Effective decision-making was enabled through the integration of both proven and bespoke methodologies, including Multi-criteria Decision Analysis and

  20. A tale of harm, waste and deception: how big pharma has undermined public faith in trial data disclosure and what we can do about it

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vivienne C. Bachelet

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The article addresses the issue of data stemming from interventional studies in humans conducted by the pharmaceutical industry and how lack of data, or data distortion, can impact on clinical decision making and systematic reviews. The cases of rosiglitazone (Avandia ™, GlaxoSmithKline, rofecoxib (Vioxx ™, Merck, and oseltamivir (Tamiflu ™, Roche, are discussed as examples of harm (morbidity and mortality were higher in the treatment groups, waste (government spending in public health programs was not based on evidence, and deception (non-reporting of adverse events in fase III trials. The consequences of this behavior on scientific production are manifold. Most importantly, evidence that is used to inform clinical decisions is reduced and distorted, which also includes publication bias. The article mentions several solutions that have appeared in international literature, such as registration of clinical trials prior to implementation, the use of guidelines to improve the quality of reports, encouraging the publication of all research results and safeguarding autonomy of academy and investigators. Registration of clinical trials has not been effective in preventing the opacity surrounding phase III intervention trials funded by industry. Editors of biomedical journals, health authorities in charge of approving drugs before marketing, ethics committees that authorize the conduct of trials in their facilities, researchers, academics and patient organizations, are all major stakeholders. The pharmaceutical industry is called upon to respond to these proposals that promote transparency. If they do so, public trust in research conducted by them may be recovered.

  1. The internet trade of counterfeit spirits in Russia – an emerging problem undermining alcohol, public health and youth protection policies? [version 2; referees: 2 approved

    OpenAIRE

    Maria Neufeld; Dirk W. Lachenmeier; Stephan G. Walch; Jürgen Rehm

    2017-01-01

    Counterfeit alcohol belongs to the category of unrecorded alcohol not reflected in official statistics. The internet trade of alcoholic beverages has been prohibited by the Russian Federation since 2007, but various sellers still offer counterfeit spirits (i.e., forged brand spirits) over the internet to Russian consumers, mostly in a non-deceptive fashion at prices up to 15 times lower than in regular sale. The public health issues arising from this unregulated trade include potential harm t...

  2. The internet trade of counterfeit spirits in Russia – an emerging problem undermining alcohol, public health and youth protection policies? [version 1; referees: 2 approved

    OpenAIRE

    Maria Neufeld; Dirk W. Lachenmeier; Stephan G. Walch; Jürgen Rehm

    2017-01-01

    Counterfeit alcohol belongs to the category of unrecorded alcohol not reflected in official statistics. The internet trade of alcoholic beverages has been prohibited by the Russian Federation since 2007, but various sellers still offer counterfeit spirits (i.e., forged brand spirits) over the internet to Russian consumers, mostly in a non-deceptive fashion at prices up to 15 times lower than in regular sale. The public health issues arising from this unregulated trade include potential harm t...

  3. Method to translate human feelings into arguments[Methods to achieve public confidence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hans, Arnold [GKN (Netherlands)

    1995-07-01

    Taking as an example the status of nuclear power in Netherlands, it was shown that there is an emotional approach on the part of supporters and opponents, not open to rational argument, objective information of no avail, lack of public support (80% against), Government undecided. It was concluded that nuclear energy is a deep-rooted emotional conflict, and that the prospects of altering the situation are bleak. Proposed arguments for changeover in favor of nuclear energy are: electricity is a necessity, it is economical, safety is guaranteed, it protects the environment and conserves other resources.

  4. Risk perception, risk management and safety assessment: what can governments do to increase public confidence in their vaccine system?

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacDonald, Noni E; Smith, Jennifer; Appleton, Mary

    2012-09-01

    For decades vaccine program managers and governments have devoted many resources to addressing public vaccine concerns, vaccine risk perception, risk management and safety assessment. Despite ever growing evidence that vaccines are safe and effective, public concerns continue. Education and evidence based scientific messages have not ended concerns. How can governments and programs more effectively address the public's vaccine concerns and increase confidence in the vaccine safety system? Vaccination hesitation has been attributed to concerns about vaccine safety, perceptions of high vaccine risks and low disease risk and consequences. Even when the public believes vaccines are important for protection many still have concerns about vaccine safety. This overview explores how heuristics affect public perception of vaccines and vaccine safety, how the public finds and uses vaccine information, and then proposes strategies for changes in the approach to vaccine safety communications. Facts and evidence confirming the safety of vaccines are not enough. Vaccine beliefs and behaviours must be shaped. This will require a shift in the what, when, how and why of vaccine risk and benefit communication content and practice. A change to a behavioural change strategy such as the WHO COMBI program that has been applied to disease eradication efforts is suggested. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  5. Experience of Public Involvement in Canada Presented to the Forum for Stakeholder Confidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Facella, Jo-Ann; Patton, Pat

    2008-01-01

    Pat Patton of NWMO, Canada, summarised the experiences of the organisation's three-year study aimed at identifying a broadly supported approach to managing Canada's nuclear fuel waste. The starting point of the study was the recognition that citizen perception of safety and acceptability are strongly interrelated, therefore understanding and addressing the social dimension of safety would be critical for finding a socially acceptable RWM approach. An iterative and collaborative dialogue was conducted between specialists and citizens to both identify how safety is to be assessed and to carry out the assessment. First, objectives, values and ethical principles were defined, which formed the basis for the criteria of selecting a preferred RWM approach. The dialogue revealed that adaptability of the management approach to new information and technological advancement is a key requirement. Continuous learning, RD and D, and citizen involvement over the course of implementation were also identified as important components of the management approach. Ms Patton presented an illustrative model for public involvement during the implementation process. According to the model, implementation would be a multi-stage process with a continuous interaction between scientific and technical specialists, potentially affected communities and the implementer. Finally, Ms Patton outlined some key challenges for future dialogues between non-specialists and experts, including the development of tools for involving citizens in increasingly more knowledge-intensive areas and communicating research results which address issues highlighted by citizens

  6. Transition Services: An Investigation of the Knowledge, Confidence, and Practice of Special Education Teachers in District of Columbia Public Charter High Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henry, Wallace R., III

    2015-01-01

    This study was intended to enhance the limited research on the knowledge and confidence of special education teachers in public education regarding transition services and the quality of transition plans they develop. The key variables examined in this study are knowledge, confidence, and the quality of student transition plans. The sample…

  7. Putting First Things First: Critical Issues for Public Administration Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenbaum, Allan

    2014-01-01

    This article begins by reviewing developments in the field of public administration over the past 50 years and identifying factors that have served, in some cases unintentionally, to undermine public confidence in the actual practice of public administration. It then examines a number of important conditions that must be addressed in the…

  8. The 2009 Health Confidence Survey: public opinion on health reform varies; strong support for insurance market reform and public plan option, mixed response to tax cap.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fronstin, Paul; Helman, Ruth

    2009-07-01

    PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR HEALTH REFORM: Findings from the 2009 Health Confidence Survey--the 12th annual HCS--indicate that Americans have already formed strong opinions regarding various aspects of health reform, even before details have been released regarding various key factors. These issues include health insurance market reform, the availability of a public plan option, mandates on employers and individuals, subsidized coverage for the low-income population, changes to the tax treatment of job-based health benefits, and regulatory oversight of health care. These opinions may change as details surface, especially as they concern financing options. In the absence of such details, the 2009 HCS finds generally strong support for the concepts of health reform options that are currently on the table. U.S. HEALTH SYSTEM GETS POOR MARKS, BUT SO DOES A MAJOR OVERHAUL: A majority rate the nation's health care system as fair (30 percent) or poor (29 percent). Only a small minority rate it excellent (6 percent) or very good (10 percent). While 14 percent of Americans think the health care system needs a major overhaul, 51 percent agree with the statement "there are some good things about our health care system, but major changes are needed." NATIONAL HEALTH PLAN ELEMENTS RATED HIGHLY: Between 68 percent and 88 percent of Americans either strongly or somewhat support health reform ideas such as national health plans, a public plan option, guaranteed issue, expansion of Medicare and Medicaid, and employer and individual mandates. MIXED REACTION TO HEALTH BENEFITS TAX CAP: Reaction to capping the current tax exclusion of employment-based health benefits is mixed. Nearly one-half of Americans (47 percent) would switch to a lower-cost plan if the tax exclusion were capped, 38 percent would stay on their current plan and pay the additional taxes, and 9 percent don't know. CONTINUED FAITH IN EMPLOYMENT-BASED BENEFITS, BUT DOUBTS ON AFFORDABILITY: Individuals with employment

  9. Educational Cloud Services and the Mathematics Confidence, Affective Engagement, and Behavioral Engagement of Mathematics Education Students in Public University in Benue State, Nigeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iji, Clement Onwu; Abah, Joshua Abah; Anyor, Joseph Wuave

    2018-01-01

    This study investigated the impact of cloud services on mathematics education students' mathematics confidence, affective engagement, and behavioral engagement in public universities in Benue State, Nigeria. Ex-post facto research design was adopted for the study. The instrument for the study was the researcher-developed Cloud Services Mathematics…

  10. Using the confidence interval confidently.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hazra, Avijit

    2017-10-01

    Biomedical research is seldom done with entire populations but rather with samples drawn from a population. Although we work with samples, our goal is to describe and draw inferences regarding the underlying population. It is possible to use a sample statistic and estimates of error in the sample to get a fair idea of the population parameter, not as a single value, but as a range of values. This range is the confidence interval (CI) which is estimated on the basis of a desired confidence level. Calculation of the CI of a sample statistic takes the general form: CI = Point estimate ± Margin of error, where the margin of error is given by the product of a critical value (z) derived from the standard normal curve and the standard error of point estimate. Calculation of the standard error varies depending on whether the sample statistic of interest is a mean, proportion, odds ratio (OR), and so on. The factors affecting the width of the CI include the desired confidence level, the sample size and the variability in the sample. Although the 95% CI is most often used in biomedical research, a CI can be calculated for any level of confidence. A 99% CI will be wider than 95% CI for the same sample. Conflict between clinical importance and statistical significance is an important issue in biomedical research. Clinical importance is best inferred by looking at the effect size, that is how much is the actual change or difference. However, statistical significance in terms of P only suggests whether there is any difference in probability terms. Use of the CI supplements the P value by providing an estimate of actual clinical effect. Of late, clinical trials are being designed specifically as superiority, non-inferiority or equivalence studies. The conclusions from these alternative trial designs are based on CI values rather than the P value from intergroup comparison.

  11. Viewing movie smoking undermines antismoking parenting practices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sargent, James D; Hanewinkel, Reiner

    2008-01-01

    To test the hypothesis that viewing depictions of smoking in movies makes adolescents less responsive to parenting factors that prevent smoking. Cross-sectional survey of 4807 students (grades 5-8) through which we ascertained exposure to smoking in movies, parent smoking, and adolescents' perception of parental responsiveness (support), and parental demandingness (behavioral control). Adolescents attending randomly selected middle schools in the Northeastern U.S. ever tried smoking a cigarette. Exposure to movie smoking was ascertained by counting occurrences of tobacco use in 601 recent popular motion pictures; surveying students to identify films they had seen from a random subset of 50 films; and summing tobacco use occurrences for the films each adolescent reported seeing. We also measured adolescents' perceptions of parent smoking, parental responsiveness and demandingness. The overall prevalence of adolescent smoking was 17.4 percent. The prevalence of smoking increased with exposure to movie smoking (low vs. high exposure 8.8 vs. 25.8%, p Parenting factors associated with lower rates of adolescent smoking were parent non smoking status (11.0% vs. 27.7% for parents who smoke, p parental responsiveness (12.4% vs. 23.1% for low parental responsiveness, p Parenting factors were not strongly associated with exposure to movie smoking. For adolescents with low exposure to movie smoking the adjusted odds (95% confidence interval) of smoking were 0.31 (0.23, 0.42) if parents did not smoke, 0.57 (0.42, 0.78) if parents exerted high demandingness, and 0.52 (0.38, 0.71) if parents were highly responsive. Parents had significantly less influence for adolescents with high exposure to movie smoking, for whom the adjusted odds of smoking were only 0.50 if parents did not smoke (p = 0.014 for the interaction effect), 0.97 if parents exerted high demandingness (p = 0.007 for the interaction effect) and 0.73 if parents were highly responsive (p = 0.045 for the interaction

  12. Case-study session 1. Mass media and public information on nuclear energy and radiation: Striving for two-way confidence and understanding. Introduction by session chairman

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    SanLaholma, Juhani

    1989-01-01

    The ENS Information Committee carried out an assessment of public opinion and news media. The conclusions of this assessment are presented. The ENS recognized fully the significant role of the news media in reflecting public opinion in the nuclear field. It was concluded that it is worthwhile and important for the nuclear organizations to consider why unverified, even false, information appears so often in the media. The study emphasized that the nuclear organizations' relations with the news media are of high significance. ENS emphasized that it is important for the nuclear sector sector to pursue an active and frank information policy with the news media. ENS recognized that it is our task to prepare and provide the news media and the public with prompt, correct and objective information it is endless work but, at the same time, our only way of winning and attaining credibility and confidence among the public

  13. The role of the public sector's research programme in support of the authorities and in building confidence on the safety of spent fuel disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vuori, S.; Rasilainen, K.

    2002-01-01

    A multiphase research programme was launched in 1989 to support the Finnish authorities in their activities concerning spent fuel management. The Finnish programme for spent fuel management has so far managed to keep its original time schedule at least partly due to clearly defined responsibilities between the nuclear energy producing industry and the authorities. It appears that the public sector's research programme has been successful in its supporting role by providing research results both on technical/ natural science and social science issues. In addition, the research programme has contributed directly and indirectly in building confidence on the post-closure and operational safety of a spent fuel disposal facility. (authors)

  14. How social influence can undermine the wisdom of crowd effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorenz, Jan; Rauhut, Heiko; Schweitzer, Frank; Helbing, Dirk

    2011-01-01

    Social groups can be remarkably smart and knowledgeable when their averaged judgements are compared with the judgements of individuals. Already Galton [Galton F (1907) Nature 75:7] found evidence that the median estimate of a group can be more accurate than estimates of experts. This wisdom of crowd effect was recently supported by examples from stock markets, political elections, and quiz shows [Surowiecki J (2004) The Wisdom of Crowds]. In contrast, we demonstrate by experimental evidence (N = 144) that even mild social influence can undermine the wisdom of crowd effect in simple estimation tasks. In the experiment, subjects could reconsider their response to factual questions after having received average or full information of the responses of other subjects. We compare subjects’ convergence of estimates and improvements in accuracy over five consecutive estimation periods with a control condition, in which no information about others’ responses was provided. Although groups are initially “wise,” knowledge about estimates of others narrows the diversity of opinions to such an extent that it undermines the wisdom of crowd effect in three different ways. The “social influence effect” diminishes the diversity of the crowd without improvements of its collective error. The “range reduction effect” moves the position of the truth to peripheral regions of the range of estimates so that the crowd becomes less reliable in providing expertise for external observers. The “confidence effect” boosts individuals’ confidence after convergence of their estimates despite lack of improved accuracy. Examples of the revealed mechanism range from misled elites to the recent global financial crisis. PMID:21576485

  15. The Cuban health care system and factors currently undermining it.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nayeri, K

    1995-08-01

    This paper explores the dynamics of health and health care in Cuba during a period of severe crisis by placing it within its economic, social, and political context using a comparative historical approach. It outlines Cuban achievements in health care as a consequence of the socialist transformations since 1959, noting the full commitment by the Cuban state, the planned economy, mass participation, and a self-critical, working class perspective as crucial factors. The roles of two external factors, the U.S. economic embargo and the Council of Mutual Economic Cooperation (CMEA), are explored in shaping the Cuban society and economy, including its health care system. It is argued that the former has hindered health efforts in Cuba. The role of the latter is more complex. While the CMEA was an important source for economic growth, Cuban relations with the Soviet bloc had a damaging effect on the development of socialism in Cuba. The adoption of the Soviet model of economic development fostered bureaucracy and demoralization of Cuban workers. As such, it contributed to two internal factors that have undermined further social progress including in health care: low productivity of labor and the growth of bureaucracy. While the health care system is still consistently supported by public policy and its structure is sound, economic crisis undermines its material and moral foundations and threatens its achievements. The future of the current Cuban health care system is intertwined with the potentials for its socialist development.

  16. Assessing public speaking fear with the short form of the Personal Report of Confidence as a Speaker scale: confirmatory factor analyses among a French-speaking community sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heeren, Alexandre; Ceschi, Grazia; Valentiner, David P; Dethier, Vincent; Philippot, Pierre

    2013-01-01

    The main aim of this study was to assess the reliability and structural validity of the French version of the 12-item version of the Personal Report of Confidence as Speaker (PRCS), one of the most promising measurements of public speaking fear. A total of 611 French-speaking volunteers were administered the French versions of the short PRCS, the Liebowitz Social Anxiety Scale, the Fear of Negative Evaluation scale, as well as the Trait version of the Spielberger State-Trait Anxiety Inventory and the Beck Depression Inventory-II, which assess the level of anxious and depressive symptoms, respectively. Regarding its structural validity, confirmatory factor analyses indicated a single-factor solution, as implied by the original version. Good scale reliability (Cronbach's alpha = 0.86) was observed. The item discrimination analysis suggested that all the items contribute to the overall scale score reliability. The French version of the short PRCS showed significant correlations with the Liebowitz Social Anxiety Scale (r = 0.522), the Fear of Negative Evaluation scale (r = 0.414), the Spielberger State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (r = 0.516), and the Beck Depression Inventory-II (r = 0.361). The French version of the short PRCS is a reliable and valid measure for the evaluation of the fear of public speaking among a French-speaking sample. These findings have critical consequences for the measurement of psychological and pharmacological treatment effectiveness in public speaking fear among a French-speaking sample.

  17. Assessing public speaking fear with the short form of the Personal Report of Confidence as a Speaker scale: confirmatory factor analyses among a French-speaking community sample

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heeren A

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Alexandre Heeren,1,2 Grazia Ceschi,3 David P Valentiner,4 Vincent Dethier,1 Pierre Philippot11Université Catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium; 2National Fund for Scientific Research, Brussels, Belgium; 3Department of Psychology, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland; 4Department of Psychology, Northern Illinois University, DeKalb, IL, USABackground: The main aim of this study was to assess the reliability and structural validity of the French version of the 12-item version of the Personal Report of Confidence as Speaker (PRCS, one of the most promising measurements of public speaking fear.Methods: A total of 611 French-speaking volunteers were administered the French versions of the short PRCS, the Liebowitz Social Anxiety Scale, the Fear of Negative Evaluation scale, as well as the Trait version of the Spielberger State-Trait Anxiety Inventory and the Beck Depression Inventory-II, which assess the level of anxious and depressive symptoms, respectively.Results: Regarding its structural validity, confirmatory factor analyses indicated a single-factor solution, as implied by the original version. Good scale reliability (Cronbach’s alpha = 0.86 was observed. The item discrimination analysis suggested that all the items contribute to the overall scale score reliability. The French version of the short PRCS showed significant correlations with the Liebowitz Social Anxiety Scale (r = 0.522, the Fear of Negative Evaluation scale (r = 0.414, the Spielberger State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (r = 0.516, and the Beck Depression Inventory-II (r = 0.361.Conclusion: The French version of the short PRCS is a reliable and valid measure for the evaluation of the fear of public speaking among a French-speaking sample. These findings have critical consequences for the measurement of psychological and pharmacological treatment effectiveness in public speaking fear among a French-speaking sample.Keywords: social phobia, public speaking, confirmatory

  18. How Sex Selection Undermines Reproductive Autonomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Browne, Tamara Kayali

    2017-06-01

    Non-medical sex selection is premised on the notion that the sexes are not interchangeable. Studies of individuals who undergo sex selection for non-medical reasons, or who have a preference for a son or daughter, show that they assume their child will conform to the stereotypical roles and norms associated with their sex. However, the evidence currently available has not succeeded in showing that the gender traits and inclinations sought are caused by a "male brain" or a "female brain". Therefore, as far as we know, there is no biological reason why parents cannot have the kind of parenting experience they seek with a child of any sex. Yet gender essentialism, a set of unfounded assumptions about the sexes which pervade society and underpin sexism, prevents parents from realising this freedom. In other words, unfounded assumptions about gender constrain not only a child's autonomy, but also the parent's. To date, reproductive autonomy in relation to sex selection has predominantly been regarded merely as the freedom to choose the sex of one's child. This paper points to at least two interpretations of reproductive autonomy and argues that sex selection, by being premised on gender essentialism and/or the social pressure on parents to ensure their children conform to gender norms, undermines reproductive autonomy on both accounts.

  19. Land market feedbacks can undermine biodiversity conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armsworth, Paul R; Daily, Gretchen C; Kareiva, Peter; Sanchirico, James N

    2006-04-04

    The full or partial purchase of land has become a cornerstone of efforts to conserve biodiversity in countries with strong private property rights. Methods used to target areas for acquisition typically ignore land market dynamics. We show how conservation purchases affect land prices and generate feedbacks that can undermine conservation goals, either by displacing development toward biologically valuable areas or by accelerating its pace. The impact of these market feedbacks on the effectiveness of conservation depends on the ecological value of land outside nature reserves. Traditional, noneconomic approaches to site prioritization should perform adequately in places where land outside reserves supports little biodiversity. However, these approaches will perform poorly in locations where the countryside surrounding reserves is important for species' persistence. Conservation investments can sometimes even be counterproductive, condemning more species than they save. Conservation is most likely to be compromised in the absence of accurate information on species distributions, which provides a strong argument for improving inventories of biodiversity. Accounting for land market dynamics in conservation planning is crucial for making smart investment decisions.

  20. The role of an EU harmonised E and T system in radiation protection for public acceptance and confidence building in Romania

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ceclan, Mihail; Ceclan, Rodica Elena; Zsombori, Vilmos; Rosca, Gabriela

    2007-01-01

    The paper aims at presenting the efforts made in the last two years for modernizing the Romanian education and training (E and T) system in Radiation Protection (RP). Increasing the responsive capacity in emergency situations is an important element for public acceptance and confidence building in Romania regarding the nuclear power. The responsive capacity in emergency situations is related to the Romanian E and T system in RP. Since January 1st, 2007 Romania became an EU member but the Romania's EU integration process will continue for still several years. The Romania's EU integration priorities are not only to transform the economy radically, but also to modernize its E and T system in general and in RP in particular. The modernization of the Romanian E and T system in RP is a real concern, related to the National Nuclear Programme (NNP) which foresees the commissioning of unit 2 of Cernavoda NPP in 2007 and the completion of units 3 and 4 until 2015. The natural way of modernizing the Romanian E and T system in RP is the cooperation with EUropean Training and Education in RP (EUTERP) Platform which was created in 2006 as a network covering the 25 European Union Member States as well as the Candidate States Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania and Turkey. Romania's integration process into EU radiation protection field is ongoing and has produced the following results: -- the Romanian branch of EUTERP Platform, called ROmanian Training and Education in Radiation Protection Platform (RO T ERP Platform) was established ; -- the RO T ERP Platform serves as a network, aiming at improving the cooperation between the various actors in the field of radiation protection E and T: - national authorities implied in RP, as CNCAN; - national bodies responsible for professional education and dedicated training, Ministry of Education and Research; - providers of training and education in the radiation protection area, universities and training centers; - professional organizations

  1. Permissiveness toward tobacco sponsorship undermines tobacco control support in Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayo-Yusuf, Olalekan A; Olutola, Bukola G; Agaku, Israel T

    2016-06-01

    School personnel, who are respected members of the community, may exert significant influence on policy adoption. This study assessed the impact of school personnel's permissiveness toward tobacco industry sponsorship activities on their support for complete bans on tobacco advertisements, comprehensive smoke-free laws and increased tobacco prices. Representative data were obtained from the Global School Personnel Survey for 29 African countries (n = 17 929). Adjusted prevalence ratios (aPR) were calculated using multi-variable Poisson regression models to assess the impact of permissiveness toward tobacco sponsorship activities on support for tobacco control policies (p industry should be allowed to sponsor school events were significantly less likely to support complete bans on tobacco advertisements [aPR = 0.89; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.84-0.95] and comprehensive smoke-free laws (aPR = 0.95; 95% CI 0.92-0.98). In contrast, support for complete tobacco advertisement bans was more likely among those who believed that the tobacco industry encourages youths to smoke (aPR = 1.27; 95% CI 1.17-1.37), and among those who taught about health sometimes (aPR = 1.06; 95% CI 1.01-1.11) or a lot (aPR = 1.05; 95% CI 1.01-1.10) compared with those who did not teach about health at all. These findings underscore the need to educate school personnel on tobacco industry's strategies to undermine tobacco control policies. This may help to build school personnel support for laws intended to reduce youth susceptibility, experimentation and established use of tobacco products. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  2. Reflection does not undermine self-interested prosociality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rand, David G; Kraft-Todd, Gordon T

    2014-01-01

    The cognitive basis of prosocial behavior has received considerable recent attention. Previous work using economic games has found that in social dilemmas, intuitive decisions are more prosocial on average. The Social Heuristics Hypothesis (SHH) explains this result by contending that strategies which are successful in daily life become automatized as intuitions. Deliberation then causes participants to adjust to the self-interested strategy in the specific setting at hand. Here we provide further evidence for the SHH by confirming several predictions regarding when and for whom time pressure/delay will and will not alter contributions in a Public Goods Game (PGG). First, we replicate and extend previous results showing that (as predicted by the SHH) trust of daily-life interaction partners and previous experience with economic games moderate the effect of time pressure/delay in social dilemmas. We then confirm a novel prediction of the SHH: that deliberation should not undermine the decision to benefit others when doing so is also individually payoff-maximizing. Our results lend further support to the SHH, and shed light on the role that deliberation plays in social dilemmas.

  3. On the alleged memory-undermining effects of daydreaming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otgaar, Henry; Cleere, Colleen; Merckelbach, Harald; Peters, Maarten; Jelicic, Marko; Lynn, Steven Jay

    2016-01-01

    In three experiments, we examined the memory-undermining effects of daydreaming for (un)related stimuli. In Experiments 1 and 2, we tested whether daydreaming fosters forgetting of semantically interrelated material and hence, catalyzes false memory production. In Experiment 3, we examined the memory effects of different daydreaming instructions. In Experiment 1, daydreaming did not undermine correct recall of semantically interrelated words, nor did it affect false memories. In Experiment 2, we again failed to find that daydreaming exerted memory-undermining effects a. In Experiment 3, no memory effects were obtained using different daydreaming instructions. Together, our studies fail to show appreciable memory-undermining effects of daydreaming. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Confidant Relations in Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jenny Isaacs

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Confidants are often described as the individuals with whom we choose to disclose personal, intimate matters. The presence of a confidant is associated with both mental and physical health benefits. In this study, 135 Italian adults responded to a structured questionnaire that asked if they had a confidant, and if so, to describe various features of the relationship. The vast majority of participants (91% reported the presence of a confidant and regarded this relationship as personally important, high in mutuality and trust, and involving minimal lying. Confidants were significantly more likely to be of the opposite sex. Participants overall were significantly more likely to choose a spouse or other family member as their confidant, rather than someone outside of the family network. Familial confidants were generally seen as closer, and of greater value, than non-familial confidants. These findings are discussed within the context of Italian culture.

  5. Location-dependent depth and undermining formation of pressure ulcers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takahashi, Yoshiko; Isogai, Zenzo; Mizokami, Fumihiro; Furuta, Katsunori; Nemoto, Tetsuya; Kanoh, Hiroyuki; Yoneda, Masahiko

    2013-08-01

    We examined the location-specific properties of pressure ulcers, focusing on depth and undermining formation, which are often unfavorable factors for ulcer healing. We conducted a retrospective observational study of 2 independent databases on pressure ulcers. Databases from a 200-bed hospital (database A) and a 300-bed hospital (database B) were collected during different time periods. Relationships between ulcer location, ulcer depth, and undermining formation were analyzed. All pressure ulcers were accurately diagnosed and classified according to their locations. A total of 282 pressure ulcers in 189 patients from database A and 232 pressure ulcers in 154 patients from database B were analyzed. It was found that pressure ulcers primarily developed over the sacrum. Ratio of stages III and IV pressure ulcers was high in pressure ulcers of the foot, ankle, and crus on the lower leg. Among the deep pressure ulcers, undermining formation was frequently observed on the greater trochanter, ilium, and sacrum. In contrast, pressure ulcers of the foot, ankle, and crus did not exhibit undermining formation. Our results revealed marked differences in pressure ulcer properties depending on their location. Factors affecting depth and undermining of pressure ulcers appear to be related to anatomical and physical properties of the bone and subcutaneous tissue. Copyright © 2013 Tissue Viability Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Exploration of a theory of internal audit: a study on the theoretical foundations of internal audit in relation to the nature and the control systems of Dutch public listed firms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Swinkels, W.H.A.

    2012-01-01

    Scandals have undermined investor confidence in the management of firms and drawn global attention to how Management Boards of public firms are in-control of their operations. These scandals cleared the way for corporate governance committees to define new requirements on the control systems of

  7. Raising Confident Kids

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... First Aid & Safety Doctors & Hospitals Videos Recipes for Kids Kids site Sitio para niños How the Body ... Videos for Educators Search English Español Raising Confident Kids KidsHealth / For Parents / Raising Confident Kids What's in ...

  8. A strategy for improving public confidence of nuclear energy based on the segmentation of stake holders -Focused on Univ. Students, the Opinion Leader in the Next Generation-

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jang, Jenam

    2012-01-01

    Korea Nuclear Energy Promotion Agency(hereafter, referred as KONEPA) is a public institution established in March, 1992 to improve correct understanding of nuclear energy through development and dissemination of objective, scientific knowledge on the peaceful use of nuclear energy. KONEPA divided the targeted group into four large groups? opinion leaders, civil-social group, LOCA governments, general public/next-generation students/teachers? according to the knowledge levels of nuclear power and involvements in nuclear power plants, and implemented 'customized strategy' suited to the own characteristic of each group. Of these four groups, the next generation, focused on the 'Univ. students' will be discussed with their activities and future plans in this paper

  9. Natural Analogues - One Way to Help Build Public Confidence in the Predicted Performance of a Mined Geologic Repository for Nuclear Waste

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stuckless, J. S.

    2002-02-26

    The general public needs to have a way to judge the predicted long-term performance of the potential high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain. The applicability and reliability of mathematical models used to make this prediction are neither easily understood nor accepted by the public. Natural analogues can provide the average person with a tool to assess the predicted performance and other scientific conclusions. For example, hydrologists with the Yucca Mountain Project have predicted that most of the water moving through the unsaturated zone at Yucca Mountain, Nevada will move through the host rock and around tunnels. Thus, seepage into tunnels is predicted to be a small percentage of available infiltration. This hypothesis can be tested experimentally and with some quantitative analogues. It can also be tested qualitatively using a variety of analogues such as (1) well-preserved Paleolithic to Neolithic paintings in caves and rock shelters, (2) biological remains preserved in caves and rock shelters, and (3) artifacts and paintings preserved in man-made underground openings. These examples can be found in materials that are generally available to the non-scientific public and can demonstrate the surprising degree of preservation of fragile and easily destroyed materials for very long periods of time within the unsaturated zone.

  10. Time pressure undermines performance more under avoidance than approach motivation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roskes, M.; Elliot, A.J.; Nijstad, B.A.; de Dreu, C.K.W.

    2013-01-01

    Four experiments were designed to test the hypothesis that performance is particularly undermined by time pressure when people are avoidance motivated. The results supported this hypothesis across three different types of tasks, including those well suited and those ill suited to the type of

  11. A discursive formation that undermined integration at a historically ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Data analysis showed that: racial desegregation was achieved at student and level one staff level and lacking at management and administrative staff level; staffing ... These regularities point to a discursive formation (Foucault, 1977) that undermine integration and would reproduce previous racialised inequalities. Finally ...

  12. Monitoring and analysis of surface changes from undermining

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kajzar, Vlastimil; Doležalová, Hana

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 59, č. 4 (2013), s. 1-10 ISSN 1802-5420 R&D Projects: GA MŠk ED2.1.00/03.0082 Institutional support: RVO:68145535 Keywords : undermining * surface changes * surveying methods Subject RIV: DH - Mining, incl. Coal Mining http://gse.vsb.cz/2013/LIX-2013-4-1-10.pdf

  13. Time Pressure Undermines Performance More Under Avoidance Than Approach Motivation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roskes, Marieke; Elliot, Andrew J.; Nijstad, Bernard A.; De Dreu, Carsten K. W.

    Four experiments were designed to test the hypothesis that performance is particularly undermined by time pressure when people are avoidance motivated. The results supported this hypothesis across three different types of tasks, including those well suited and those ill suited to the type of

  14. Towards confidence in transport safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robison, R.W.

    1992-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (US DOE) plans to demonstrate to the public that high-level waste can be transported safely to the proposed repository. The author argues US DOE should begin now to demonstrate its commitment to safety by developing an extraordinary safety program for nuclear cargo it is now shipping. The program for current shipments should be developed with State, Tribal, and local officials. Social scientists should be involved in evaluating the effect of the safety program on public confidence. The safety program developed in cooperation with western states for shipments to the Waste Isolation Pilot plant is a good basis for designing that extraordinary safety program

  15. The Model Confidence Set

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Peter Reinhard; Lunde, Asger; Nason, James M.

    The paper introduces the model confidence set (MCS) and applies it to the selection of models. A MCS is a set of models that is constructed such that it will contain the best model with a given level of confidence. The MCS is in this sense analogous to a confidence interval for a parameter. The MCS......, beyond the comparison of models. We apply the MCS procedure to two empirical problems. First, we revisit the inflation forecasting problem posed by Stock and Watson (1999), and compute the MCS for their set of inflation forecasts. Second, we compare a number of Taylor rule regressions and determine...... the MCS of the best in terms of in-sample likelihood criteria....

  16. Inattentive listening undermines self-verification in personal storytelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pasupathi, Monisha; Rich, Ben

    2005-08-01

    Two studies explore the narrative construction of self-perceptions in conversational storytelling among pairs of same-sex friends. Specifically, the studies examined how listener behavior can support or undermine attempts to self-verify in personal storytelling. In two studies (n=100 dyads), speakers told attentive, distracted, or disagreeable (Study 1 only) friends about a recent experience. Distracted, but not disagreeable, friends tended to undermine participants' attempts to verify their self-perception of being interested in an activity (Study 1) or their self-perception that an event was typical for them (Study 2). These results support the notion that friends can be an important source of influence on self-perceptions and, perhaps surprisingly, suggest that responsiveness from friends, rather than agreement per se, may be crucial for supporting self-verification processes.

  17. How Elitism Undermines the Study of Voter Competence

    OpenAIRE

    Lupia, Arthur

    2006-01-01

    A form of elitism undermines much writing on voter competence. The elitist move occurs when an author uses a self-serving worldview as the basis for evaluating voters. Such elitism is apparent in widely cited measures of “political knowledge” and in common claims about what voters should know. The elitist move typically limits the credibility and practical relevance of the analysis by leading writers to draw unreliable conclusions about voter competence. I propose a more constructive way of t...

  18. Nudges Do Not Undermine Human Agency: A Note

    OpenAIRE

    Sunstein, Cass Robert

    2015-01-01

    Some people believe that nudges undermine human agency, but with appropriate nudges, neither agency nor consumer freedom is at risk. On the contrary, nudges can promote both goals. In some contexts, they are indispensable. There is no opposition between education on the one hand and nudges on the other. Many nudges are educative. Even when they are not, they can complement, and not displace, consumer education.

  19. Will Biomedical Enhancements Undermine Solidarity, Responsibility, Equality and Autonomy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lev, Ori

    2009-01-01

    Prominent thinkers such as Jurgen Habermas and Michael Sandel are warning that biomedical enhancements will undermine fundamental political values. Yet, whether biomedical enhancements will undermine such values depends on how biomedical enhancements will function, how they will be administered and to whom. Since only few enhancements are obtainable, it is difficult to tell whether their predictions are sound. Nevertheless, such warnings are extremely valuable. As a society we must, at the very least, be aware of developments that could have harmful consequences. Indeed, if important values would be jeopardized, we should take appropriate measures to protect them. This paper focuses on four central values: solidarity, personal responsibility, equality and autonomy. It delineates the conditions under which biomedical enhancements would undermine these values. It also details the circumstances under which these values would be unaffected by enhancements as well as those under which they would be promoted. Specifying these conditions is valuable; it would enable society to prepare appropriate ethical guidelines and policy responses in advance. PMID:20002073

  20. Workplace wellness programs: how regulatory flexibility might undermine success.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pomeranz, Jennifer L

    2014-11-01

    The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act revised the law related to workplace wellness programs, which have become part of the nation's broader health strategy. Health-contingent programs are required to be reasonably designed. However, the regulatory requirements are lax and might undermine program efficacy in terms of both health gains and financial return. I propose a method for the government to support a best-practices approach by considering an accreditation or certification process. Additionally I discuss the need for program evaluation and the potential for employers to be subject to litigation if programs are not carefully implemented.

  1. Extrinsic rewards undermine altruistic tendencies in 20-month-olds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warneken, Felix; Tomasello, Michael

    2008-11-01

    The current study investigated the influence of rewards on very young children's helping behavior. After 20-month-old infants received a material reward during a treatment phase, they subsequently were less likely to engage in further helping during a test phase as compared with infants who had previously received social praise or no reward at all. This so-called overjustification effect suggests that even the earliest helping behaviors of young children are intrinsically motivated and that socialization practices involving extrinsic rewards can undermine this tendency.

  2. Confidence, Concentration, and Competitive Performance of Elite Athletes: A Natural Experiment in Olympic Gymnastics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grandjean, Burke D.; Taylor, Patricia A.; Weiner, Jay

    2002-01-01

    During the women's all-around gymnastics final at the 2000 Olympics, the vault was inadvertently set 5 cm too low for a random half of the gymnasts. The error was widely viewed as undermining their confidence and subsequent performance. However, data from pretest and posttest scores on the vault, bars, beam, and floor indicated that the vault…

  3. Interpretando correctamente en salud pública estimaciones puntuales, intervalos de confianza y contrastes de hipótesis Accurate interpretation of point estimates, confidence intervals, and hypothesis tests in public health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuel G Scotto

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available El presente ensayo trata de aclarar algunos conceptos utilizados habitualmente en el campo de investigación de la salud pública, que en numerosas situaciones son interpretados de manera incorrecta. Entre ellos encontramos la estimación puntual, los intervalos de confianza, y los contrastes de hipótesis. Estableciendo un paralelismo entre estos tres conceptos, podemos observar cuáles son sus diferencias más importantes a la hora de ser interpretados, tanto desde el punto de vista del enfoque clásico como desde la óptica bayesiana.This essay reviews some statistical concepts frequently used in public health research that are commonly misinterpreted. These include point estimates, confidence intervals, and hypothesis tests. By comparing them using the classical and the Bayesian perspectives, their interpretation becomes clearer.

  4. Undermining the rules in home care services for the elderly in Norway: flexibility and cooperation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wollscheid, Sabine; Eriksen, John; Hallvik, Jørgen

    2013-06-01

    This study explores the provision of home care services (home nursing and domiciliary help) for the elderly in Norwegian municipalities with purchaser-provider split model. The study draws on the assumption that flexibility in adjusting services to the care receivers' needs, and cooperation between provider and purchasers are indicators of good quality of care. Data were collected through semi-structured telephone interviews with 22 team leaders of provider units in nine municipalities. Data were collected in 2008-2009. The study has been approved by the Norwegian Social Science Data Services. We identified four different ways of organising home care services under a purchaser-provider split model: Provider empowerment, New Public Management, Vague instructions and undermining the rules. High flexibility in providing care and cooperation with the purchaser unit were identified by the team leaders as characteristics for good care. Our findings suggest that the care providers use individual strategies that allow flexibility and cooperation rather than rigidly abiding to the regulations the purchaser-provider split models implies. Ironically, in provider units where the 'rules were undermined', the informants (team leaders of provider units) seemed to be most satisfied with the quality of home care that they delivered. © 2012 Nordic College of Caring Science.

  5. Reclaim your creative confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelley, Tom; Kelley, David

    2012-12-01

    Most people are born creative. But over time, a lot of us learn to stifle those impulses. We become warier of judgment, more cautious more analytical. The world seems to divide into "creatives" and "noncreatives," and too many people resign themselves to the latter category. And yet we know that creativity is essential to success in any discipline or industry. The good news, according to authors Tom Kelley and David Kelley of IDEO, is that we all can rediscover our creative confidence. The trick is to overcome the four big fears that hold most of us back: fear of the messy unknown, fear of judgment, fear of the first step, and fear of losing control. The authors use an approach based on the work of psychologist Albert Bandura in helping patients get over their snake phobias: You break challenges down into small steps and then build confidence by succeeding on one after another. Creativity is something you practice, say the authors, not just a talent you are born with.

  6. Confidence in Numerical Simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hemez, Francois M.

    2015-01-01

    This PowerPoint presentation offers a high-level discussion of uncertainty, confidence and credibility in scientific Modeling and Simulation (M&S). It begins by briefly evoking M&S trends in computational physics and engineering. The first thrust of the discussion is to emphasize that the role of M&S in decision-making is either to support reasoning by similarity or to ''forecast,'' that is, make predictions about the future or extrapolate to settings or environments that cannot be tested experimentally. The second thrust is to explain that M&S-aided decision-making is an exercise in uncertainty management. The three broad classes of uncertainty in computational physics and engineering are variability and randomness, numerical uncertainty and model-form uncertainty. The last part of the discussion addresses how scientists ''think.'' This thought process parallels the scientific method where by a hypothesis is formulated, often accompanied by simplifying assumptions, then, physical experiments and numerical simulations are performed to confirm or reject the hypothesis. ''Confidence'' derives, not just from the levels of training and experience of analysts, but also from the rigor with which these assessments are performed, documented and peer-reviewed.

  7. Risk factors for the undermined coal bed mining method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arad, V. [Petrosani Univ., Petrosani (Romania). Dept. of Mining Engineering; Arad, S. [Petrosani Univ., Petrosani (Romania). Dept of Electrical Engineering

    2009-07-01

    The Romanian mining industry has been in a serious decline and is undergoing ample restructuring. Analyses of reliability and risk are most important during the early stages of a project in guiding the decision as to whether or not to proceed and in helping to establish design criteria. A technical accident occurred in 2008 at the Petrila coal mine involving an explosion during the exploitation of a coal seam. Over time a series of technical accidents, such as explosions and ignitions of methane gas, roof blowing phenomena or self-ignition of coal and hazard combustions have occurred. This paper presented an analysis of factors that led to this accident as well an analysis of factors related to the mining method. Specifically, the paper discussed the geomechanical characteristics of rocks and coal; the geodynamic phenomenon from working face 431; the spontaneous combustion phenomenon; gas accumulation; and the pressure and the height of the undermined coal bed. It was concluded that for the specific conditions encountered in Petrila colliery, the undermined bed height should be between 5 and 7 metres, depending on the geomechanic characteristics of coal and surrounding rocks. 8 refs., 1 tab., 3 figs.

  8. Globalization of consumer confidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Çelik Sadullah

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The globalization of world economies and the importance of nowcasting analysis have been at the core of the recent literature. Nevertheless, these two strands of research are hardly coupled. This study aims to fill this gap through examining the globalization of the consumer confidence index (CCI by applying conventional and unconventional econometric methods. The US CCI is used as the benchmark in tests of comovement among the CCIs of several developing and developed countries, with the data sets divided into three sub-periods: global liquidity abundance, the Great Recession, and postcrisis. The existence and/or degree of globalization of the CCIs vary according to the period, whereas globalization in the form of coherence and similar paths is observed only during the Great Recession and, surprisingly, stronger in developing/emerging countries.

  9. Does tobacco marketing undermine the influence of recommended parenting in discouraging adolescents from smoking?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierce, John P; Distefan, Janet M; Jackson, Christine; White, Martha M; Gilpin, Elizabeth A

    2002-08-01

    The tobacco industry contends that parenting practices, not marketing practices, are critical to youth smoking. Our objective was to examine whether tobacco-industry marketing practices undermine the protective effect of recommended authoritative parenting against adolescent smoking. Receptivity to tobacco advertising and promotions was assessed in 1996 from a representative sample of California adolescent never-smokers aged 12 to 14 years. A follow-up survey of 1641 of these adolescents was conducted in 1999 that included measures of the key components of authoritative parenting: parental responsiveness, monitoring, and limit setting. Smoking initiation in adolescents. Adolescents in families with more-authoritative parents were half as likely to smoke by follow-up as adolescents in families with less-authoritative parents (20% vs 41%, p parents, adolescents who were highly receptive to tobacco-industry advertising and promotions were significantly more likely to smoke (odds ratio=3.52, 95% confidence interval =1.10-11.23), compared to those who were minimally receptive. This effect was not significant in adolescents in families with less-authoritative parents. The overall attributable risk (adjusted for exposure to peer smokers) of smoking from tobacco-industry advertising and promotions was 25%. However, an estimated 40% of adolescent smoking in families with more-authoritative parents was attributable to tobacco-industry advertising and promotions; this was five times the attributable risk seen in families with less-authoritative parents (8%). The promotion of smoking by the tobacco industry appears to undermine the capability of authoritative parenting to prevent adolescents from starting to smoke.

  10. Social media sentiment and consumer confidence

    OpenAIRE

    Daas, Piet J.H.; Puts, Marco J.H.

    2014-01-01

    Changes in the sentiment of Dutch public social media messages were compared with changes in monthly consumer confidence over a period of three-and-a-half years, revealing that both were highly correlated (up to r = 0.9) and that both series cointegrated. This phenomenon is predominantly affected by changes in the sentiment of all Dutch public Facebook messages. The inclusion of various selections of public Twitter messages improved this association and the response to changes in sentiment. G...

  11. Confidence in Numerical Simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hemez, Francois M. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2015-02-23

    This PowerPoint presentation offers a high-level discussion of uncertainty, confidence and credibility in scientific Modeling and Simulation (M&S). It begins by briefly evoking M&S trends in computational physics and engineering. The first thrust of the discussion is to emphasize that the role of M&S in decision-making is either to support reasoning by similarity or to “forecast,” that is, make predictions about the future or extrapolate to settings or environments that cannot be tested experimentally. The second thrust is to explain that M&S-aided decision-making is an exercise in uncertainty management. The three broad classes of uncertainty in computational physics and engineering are variability and randomness, numerical uncertainty and model-form uncertainty. The last part of the discussion addresses how scientists “think.” This thought process parallels the scientific method where by a hypothesis is formulated, often accompanied by simplifying assumptions, then, physical experiments and numerical simulations are performed to confirm or reject the hypothesis. “Confidence” derives, not just from the levels of training and experience of analysts, but also from the rigor with which these assessments are performed, documented and peer-reviewed.

  12. The Lysenko effect: undermining the autonomy of science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roll-Hansen, Nils

    2005-12-01

    The "Lysenko affair", which lasted roughly from the mid-1930s to the mid-1960s, was the big scandal of 20th-century science: a classic example of how politics can corrupt and undermine its rational basis. Under Stalin's leadership the Soviet Government suppressed genuine genetics and other sound biology, with devastating consequences for agriculture and health. The worst example of this occurred in August 1948 when the Politburo outlawed the teaching of and research into classical Mendelian genetics. There is broad agreement that this case offers a stark warning against politicians interfering with science. But what, precisely, is this interference that we are being warned about? Whereas the fate of genetics in Soviet Russia was a clear-cut example of direct suppression, there were also other less obvious ways in which politics subverted the scientific process. This indirect interference with science is a persistent feature of modern politics that we need to be on the lookout for.

  13. Local Nordic tobacco interests collaborated with multinational companies to maintain a united front and undermine tobacco control policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiilamo, Heikki; Glantz, Stanton A

    2013-03-01

    To analyse how local tobacco companies in the Nordic countries, individually and through National Manufacturers' Associations, cooperated with British American Tobacco and Philip Morris in denying the health hazards of smoking and undermining tobacco control. Analysis of tobacco control policies in the Nordic countries and tobacco industry documents. Nordic countries were early adopters of tobacco control policies. The multinational tobacco companies recognised this fact and mobilised to oppose these policies, in part because of fear that they would set unfavourable precedents. Since at least 1972, the Nordic tobacco companies were well informed about and willing to participate in the multinational companies activities to obscure the health dangers of smoking and secondhand smoke and to oppose tobacco control policies. Cooperation between multinational companies, Nordic national manufacturer associations and local companies ensured a united front on smoking and health issues in the Nordic area that was consistent with the positions that the multinational companies were taking. This cooperation delayed smoke-free laws and undermined other tobacco control measures. Local tobacco companies worked with multinational companies to undermine tobacco control in distant and small Nordic markets because of concern that pioneering policies initiated in Nordic countries would spread to bigger market areas. Claims by the local Nordic companies that they were not actively involved with the multinationals are not supported by the facts. These results also demonstrate that the industry appreciates the global importance of both positive and negative public health precedents in tobacco control.

  14. Local Nordic tobacco interests collaborated with multinational companies to maintain a united front and undermine tobacco control policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiilamo, Heikki; Glantz, Stanton A

    2012-01-01

    Objective To analyse how local tobacco companies in the Nordic countries, individually and through National Manufacturers’ Associations, cooperated with British American Tobacco and Philip Morris in denying the health hazards of smoking and undermining tobacco control. Methods Analysis of tobacco control policies in the Nordic countries and tobacco industry documents. Results Nordic countries were early adopters of tobacco control policies. The multinational tobacco companies recognised this fact and mobilised to oppose these policies, in part because of fear that they would set unfavourable precedents. Since at least 1972, the Nordic tobacco companies were well informed about and willing to participate in the multinational companies activities to obscure the health dangers of smoking and secondhand smoke and to oppose tobacco control policies. Cooperation between multinational companies, Nordic national manufacturer associations and local companies ensured a united front on smoking and health issues in the Nordic area that was consistent with the positions that the multinational companies were taking. This cooperation delayed smoke-free laws and undermined other tobacco control measures. Conclusions Local tobacco companies worked with multinational companies to undermine tobacco control in distant and small Nordic markets because of concern that pioneering policies initiated in Nordic countries would spread to bigger market areas. Claims by the local Nordic companies that they were not actively involved with the multinationals are not supported by the facts. These results also demonstrate that the industry appreciates the global importance of both positive and negative public health precedents in tobacco control. PMID:22199013

  15. Confident Communication: Speaking Tips for Educators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Douglas A.

    This resource book seeks to provide the building blocks needed for public speaking while eliminating the fear factor. The book explains how educators can perfect their oratorical capabilities as well as enjoy the security, confidence, and support needed to create and deliver dynamic speeches. Following an Introduction: A Message for Teachers,…

  16. The idiosyncratic nature of confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navajas, Joaquin; Hindocha, Chandni; Foda, Hebah; Keramati, Mehdi; Latham, Peter E; Bahrami, Bahador

    2017-11-01

    Confidence is the 'feeling of knowing' that accompanies decision making. Bayesian theory proposes that confidence is a function solely of the perceived probability of being correct. Empirical research has suggested, however, that different individuals may perform different computations to estimate confidence from uncertain evidence. To test this hypothesis, we collected confidence reports in a task where subjects made categorical decisions about the mean of a sequence. We found that for most individuals, confidence did indeed reflect the perceived probability of being correct. However, in approximately half of them, confidence also reflected a different probabilistic quantity: the perceived uncertainty in the estimated variable. We found that the contribution of both quantities was stable over weeks. We also observed that the influence of the perceived probability of being correct was stable across two tasks, one perceptual and one cognitive. Overall, our findings provide a computational interpretation of individual differences in human confidence.

  17. Policy resistance undermines superspreader vaccination strategies for influenza.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chad R Wells

    Full Text Available Theoretical models of infection spread on networks predict that targeting vaccination at individuals with a very large number of contacts (superspreaders can reduce infection incidence by a significant margin. These models generally assume that superspreaders will always agree to be vaccinated. Hence, they cannot capture unintended consequences such as policy resistance, where the behavioral response induced by a new vaccine policy tends to reduce the expected benefits of the policy. Here, we couple a model of influenza transmission on an empirically-based contact network with a psychologically structured model of influenza vaccinating behavior, where individual vaccinating decisions depend on social learning and past experiences of perceived infections, vaccine complications and vaccine failures. We find that policy resistance almost completely undermines the effectiveness of superspreader strategies: the most commonly explored approaches that target a randomly chosen neighbor of an individual, or that preferentially choose neighbors with many contacts, provide at best a 2% relative improvement over their non-targeted counterpart as compared to 12% when behavioral feedbacks are ignored. Increased vaccine coverage in super spreaders is offset by decreased coverage in non-superspreaders, and superspreaders also have a higher rate of perceived vaccine failures on account of being infected more often. Including incentives for vaccination provides modest improvements in outcomes. We conclude that the design of influenza vaccine strategies involving widespread incentive use and/or targeting of superspreaders should account for policy resistance, and mitigate it whenever possible.

  18. Analysis of Bilateral Effects between Social Undermining and Co-Creation among University Faculty Members

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taherpour, Fatima; Rajaeepour, Saeed; Siadat, Ali; Kazemi, Iraj

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the social undermining is increasing important in organizational literature both because of its relation with job performance and because of its collective cost to individuals and organizations. This article argued that social undermining can effect on co-creation among faculty members. The study adopted a descriptive-correlational…

  19. Moralized Health-Related Persuasion Undermines Social Cohesion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susanne Täuber

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Integrating theory and research on persuasion, moralization, and intergroup relations, the present research aims to highlight the far-reaching impact of health-related persuasion on society. I propose that governments’ health-related persuasion leads to the emergence of new social norms, and in particular moral norms. Importantly, moral norms provide strong behavioral imperatives and are seen as binding for group members. This suggests that moralized persuasion has a strong potential to divide society along the lines of citizens who conform to and citizens who deviate from health-related moral norms. Thus, departing from the traditional focus on targets of persuasion, the present research focuses on those holding a moralized view on health and lifestyle. Key aspects of social cohesion as defined by the OECD (2011 have been tested across four studies. The main hypothesis tested is that those conforming to the norm (e.g., non-smokers, normal weight people, people with healthy lifestyles will stigmatize those deviating from the norm (e.g., smokers, overweight people, people with unhealthy lifestyles. Flowing from stigmatization, less inclusion, lower solidarity with and greater endorsement of unequal treatment of those deviating from the moral norm are predicted. Four survey studies (total N = 1568 examining the proposed associations among non-smokers, normal weight people, and employees with healthy lifestyles are presented. The studies provide unanimous support for the hypothesis, with meta-analysis providing further support for the reliability of the findings. Consistent across studies, social cohesion indicators were negatively affected by health moralization through stigmatization of those deviating from health-related moral norms. Findings highlight an under-acknowledged potential of moralized health-related persuasion to divide society, thereby undermining cohesion and the achievement of important societal goals. In the discussion

  20. Cheating monkeys undermine group strength in enemy territory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crofoot, Margaret Chatham; Gilby, Ian C

    2012-01-10

    In many social animals, group-mates cooperate to defend their range against intrusion by neighboring groups. Because group size tends to be highly variable, such conflicts are often asymmetric. Although numerical superiority is assumed to provide a competitive advantage, small groups can generally defend their ranges, even when greatly outnumbered. The prevailing explanation for this puzzling phenomenon is that individuals in relatively large groups experience a greater temptation to flee from conflicts, in effect leveling the balance of power. Using playback experiments simulating territorial intrusions by wild capuchin monkey (Cebus capucinus) groups, we show that such a collective action problem does indeed undermine the competitive ability of large groups. Focal capuchins were more likely to run away from territorial intrusions when their group had a numeric advantage; each one-individual increase in relative group size raised the odds of flight by 25%. However, interaction location had a more important impact on individuals' reactions, creating a strong home-field advantage. After controlling for relative group size, the odds that a focal animal fled were 91% lower in experiments that occurred in the center compared with on the edge of its group's range, whereas the odds that it rushed toward the speaker were more than sixfold higher. These location-dependent patterns of defection and cooperation create a competitive advantage for residents over intruders across a wide range of relative group sizes, which may stabilize range boundaries and provide a general explanation for how groups of widely divergent sizes can coexist, even in the face of intense intergroup competition.

  1. Diverse interpretations of confidence building

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Macintosh, J.

    1998-01-01

    This paper explores the variety of operational understandings associated with the term 'confidence building'. Collectively, these understandings constitute what should be thought of as a 'family' of confidence building approaches. This unacknowledged and generally unappreciated proliferation of operational understandings that function under the rubric of confidence building appears to be an impediment to effective policy. The paper's objective is to analyze these different understandings, stressing the important differences in their underlying assumptions. In the process, the paper underlines the need for the international community to clarify its collective thinking about what it means when it speaks of 'confidence building'. Without enhanced clarity, it will be unnecessarily difficult to employ the confidence building approach effectively due to the lack of consistent objectives and common operating assumptions. Although it is not the intention of this paper to promote a particular account of confidence building, dissecting existing operational understandings should help to identify whether there are fundamental elements that define what might be termed 'authentic' confidence building. Implicit here is the view that some operational understandings of confidence building may diverge too far from consensus models to count as meaningful members of the confidence building family. (author)

  2. Policies designed for self-interested citizens may undermine "the moral sentiments": evidence from economic experiments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowles, Samuel

    2008-06-20

    High-performance organizations and economies work on the basis not only of material interests but also of Adam Smith's "moral sentiments." Well-designed laws and public policies can harness self-interest for the common good. However, incentives that appeal to self-interest may fail when they undermine the moral values that lead people to act altruistically or in other public-spirited ways. Behavioral experiments reviewed here suggest that economic incentives may be counterproductive when they signal that selfishness is an appropriate response; constitute a learning environment through which over time people come to adopt more self-interested motivations; compromise the individual's sense of self-determination and thereby degrade intrinsic motivations; or convey a message of distrust, disrespect, and unfair intent. Many of these unintended effects of incentives occur because people act not only to acquire economic goods and services but also to constitute themselves as dignified, autonomous, and moral individuals. Good organizational and institutional design can channel the material interests for the achievement of social goals while also enhancing the contribution of the moral sentiments to the same ends.

  3. The Confidence-Accuracy Relationship for Eyewitness Identification Decisions: Effects of Exposure Duration, Retention Interval, and Divided Attention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palmer, Matthew A.; Brewer, Neil; Weber, Nathan; Nagesh, Ambika

    2013-01-01

    Prior research points to a meaningful confidence-accuracy (CA) relationship for positive identification decisions. However, there are theoretical grounds for expecting that different aspects of the CA relationship (calibration, resolution, and over/underconfidence) might be undermined in some circumstances. This research investigated whether the…

  4. Inefficient procurement processes undermine access to medicines in the Western Cape Province of South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magadzire, Bvudzai P; Ward, Kim; Leng, Henry M J; Sanders, David

    2017-06-30

    South Africa (SA) has experienced several stock-outs of life-saving medicines for the treatment of major chronic infectious and non-communicable diseases in the public sector. To identify the causes of stock-outs and to illustrate how they undermine access to medicines (ATM) in the Western Cape Province, SA. This qualitative study was conducted with a sample of over 70 key informants (frontline health workers, sub-structure and provincial health service managers). We employed the critical incident technique to identify significant occurrences in our context, the consequences of which impacted on access to medicines during a defined period. Stock-outs were identified as one such incident, and we explored when, where and why they occurred, in order to inform policy and practice. Medicines procurement is a centralised function in SA. Health service managers unanimously agreed that stock-outs resulted from the following inefficiencies at the central level: (i) delays in awarding of pharmaceutical tenders; (ii) absence of contracts for certain medicines appearing on provincial code lists; and (iii) suppliers' inability to satisfy contractual agreements. The recurrence of stock-outs had implications at multiple levels: (i) health facility operations; (ii) the Chronic Dispensing Unit (CDU), which prepacks medicines for over 300 000 public sector patients; and (iii) community-based medicines distribution systems, which deliver the CDU's prepacked medicines to non-health facilities nearer to patient homes. For instance, stock-outs resulted in omission of certain medicines from CDU parcels that were delivered to health facilities. This increased workload and caused frustration for frontline health workers who were expected to dispense omitted medicines manually. According to frontline health workers, this translated into longer waiting times for patients and associated dissatisfaction. In some instances, patients were asked to return for undispensed medication at a later

  5. Inefficient procurement processes undermine access to medicines in the Western Cape Province of South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bvudzai P Magadzire

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Background. South Africa (SA has experienced several stock-outs of life-saving medicines for the treatment of major chronic infectious and non-communicable diseases in the public sector. Objective. To identify the causes of stock-outs and to illustrate how they undermine access to medicines (ATM in the Western Cape Province, SA. Methods. This qualitative study was conducted with a sample of over 70 key informants (frontline health workers, sub-structure and provincial health service managers. We employed the critical incident technique to identify significant occurrences in our context, the consequences of which impacted on access to medicines during a defined period. Stock-outs were identified as one such incident, and we explored when, where and why they occurred, in order to inform policy and practice. Results. Medicines procurement is a centralised function in SA. Health service managers unanimously agreed that stock-outs resulted from the following inefficiencies at the central level: (i delays in awarding of pharmaceutical tenders; (ii absence of contracts for certain medicines appearing on provincial code lists; and (iii suppliers’ inability to satisfy contractual agreements. The recurrence of stock-outs had implications at multiple levels: (i health facility operations; (ii the Chronic Dispensing Unit (CDU, which prepacks medicines for over 300 000 public sector patients; and (iii community-based medicines distribution systems, which deliver the CDU’s prepacked medicines to non-health facilities nearer to patient homes. For instance, stock-outs resulted in omission of certain medicines from CDU parcels that were delivered to health facilities. This increased workload and caused frustration for frontline health workers who were expected to dispense omitted medicines manually. According to frontline health workers, this translated into longer waiting times for patients and associated dissatisfaction. In some instances, patients were

  6. Medical ethics: enhanced or undermined by modes of payment?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zweifel, Peter; Janus, Katharina

    2017-01-01

    coming from the case studies. As to physicians working in hospital or group practice, the prediction is again that a transition in hospital payment from FFS to PP weakens their ethical orientation. However, this prediction could not be tested because the one hospital study found relates to a transition to P4P, suggesting that this mode of payment may actually enhance medical ethics of healthcare providers working in a hospital or group practice. The claim that moving away from FFS undermines medical ethics is far too sweeping. It can only in part be justified by observed relationships, which even may suggest that a transition to P4P strengthens medical ethics.

  7. Understanding Confidence Intervals With Visual Representations

    OpenAIRE

    Navruz, Bilgin; Delen, Erhan

    2014-01-01

    In the present paper, we showed how confidence intervals (CIs) are valuable and useful in research studies when they are used in the correct form with correct interpretations. The sixth edition of the APA (2010) Publication Manual strongly recommended reporting CIs in research studies, and it was described as “the best reporting strategy” (p. 34). Misconceptions and correct interpretations of CIs were presented from several textbooks. In addition, limitations of the null hypothesis statistica...

  8. Failing the vulnerable: Three new consent norms that will undermine ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2014-06-02

    Jun 2, 2014 ... Human Subjects[10] were published for public comment, indicating ... papilloma virus (HPV) vaccine studies on children have enabled ..... Africa: Estimating HIV incidence from three national HIV surveys in 2002, 2005 and.

  9. When does familiarity promote versus undermine interpersonal attraction? A proposed integrative model from erstwhile adversaries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Frost, J.H.; Finkel, E.J.; Norton, M.I.; Ariely, D.; Caprariello, P.A.; Eastwick, P.W.

    2015-01-01

    This article began as an adversarial collaboration between two groups of researchers with competing views on a longstanding question: Does familiarity promote or undermine interpersonal attraction? As we explored our respective positions, it became clear that the limitations of our

  10. Neural basis of the undermining effect of monetary reward on intrinsic motivation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murayama, Kou; Matsumoto, Madoka; Izuma, Keise; Matsumoto, Kenji

    2010-12-07

    Contrary to the widespread belief that people are positively motivated by reward incentives, some studies have shown that performance-based extrinsic reward can actually undermine a person's intrinsic motivation to engage in a task. This "undermining effect" has timely practical implications, given the burgeoning of performance-based incentive systems in contemporary society. It also presents a theoretical challenge for economic and reinforcement learning theories, which tend to assume that monetary incentives monotonically increase motivation. Despite the practical and theoretical importance of this provocative phenomenon, however, little is known about its neural basis. Herein we induced the behavioral undermining effect using a newly developed task, and we tracked its neural correlates using functional MRI. Our results show that performance-based monetary reward indeed undermines intrinsic motivation, as assessed by the number of voluntary engagements in the task. We found that activity in the anterior striatum and the prefrontal areas decreased along with this behavioral undermining effect. These findings suggest that the corticobasal ganglia valuation system underlies the undermining effect through the integration of extrinsic reward value and intrinsic task value.

  11. Confidence in Alternative Dispute Resolution: Experience from Switzerland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christof Schwenkel

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Alternative Dispute Resolution plays a crucial role in the justice system of Switzerland. With the unified Swiss Code of Civil Procedure, it is required that each litigation session shall be preceded by an attempt at conciliation before a conciliation authority. However, there has been little research on conciliation authorities and the public's perception of the authorities. This paper looks at public confidence in conciliation authorities and provides results of a survey conducted with more than 3,400 participants. This study found that public confidence in Swiss conciliation authorities is generally high, exceeds the ratings for confidence in cantonal governments and parliaments, but is lower than confidence in courts.Since the institutional models of the conciliation authorities (meaning the organization of the authorities and the selection of the conciliators differ widely between the 26 Swiss cantons, the influence of the institutional models on public confidence is analyzed. Contrary to assumptions based on New Institutional-ism approaches, this study reports that the institutional models do not impact public confidence. Also, the relationship between a participation in an election of justices of the peace or conciliators and public confidence in these authorities is found to be at most very limited (and negative. Similar to common findings on courts, the results show that general contacts with conciliation authorities decrease public confidence in these institutions whereas a positive experience with a conciliation authority leads to more confidence.The Study was completed as part of the research project 'Basic Research into Court Management in Switzerland', supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF. Christof Schwenkel is a PhD student at the University of Lucerne and a research associate and project manager at Interface Policy Studies. A first version of this article was presented at the 2013 European Group for Public

  12. Confidence in critical care nursing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Jeanne; Bell, Jennifer L; Sweeney, Annemarie E; Morgan, Jennifer I; Kelly, Helen M

    2010-10-01

    The purpose of the study was to gain an understanding of the nursing phenomenon, confidence, from the experience of nurses in the nursing subculture of critical care. Leininger's theory of cultural care diversity and universality guided this qualitative descriptive study. Questions derived from the sunrise model were used to elicit nurses' perspectives about cultural and social structures that exist within the critical care nursing subculture and the influence that these factors have on confidence. Twenty-eight critical care nurses from a large Canadian healthcare organization participated in semistructured interviews about confidence. Five themes arose from the descriptions provided by the participants. The three themes, tenuously navigating initiation rituals, deliberately developing holistic supportive relationships, and assimilating clinical decision-making rules were identified as social and cultural factors related to confidence. The remaining two themes, preserving a sense of security despite barriers and accommodating to diverse challenges, were identified as environmental factors related to confidence. Practice and research implications within the culture of critical care nursing are discussed in relation to each of the themes.

  13. Professional confidence: a concept analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holland, Kathlyn; Middleton, Lyn; Uys, Leana

    2012-03-01

    Professional confidence is a concept that is frequently used and or implied in occupational therapy literature, but often without specifying its meaning. Rodgers's Model of Concept Analysis was used to analyse the term "professional confidence". Published research obtained from a federated search in four health sciences databases was used to inform the concept analysis. The definitions, attributes, antecedents, and consequences of professional confidence as evidenced in the literature are discussed. Surrogate terms and related concepts are identified, and a model case of the concept provided. Based on the analysis, professional confidence can be described as a dynamic, maturing personal belief held by a professional or student. This includes an understanding of and a belief in the role, scope of practice, and significance of the profession, and is based on their capacity to competently fulfil these expectations, fostered through a process of affirming experiences. Developing and fostering professional confidence should be nurtured and valued to the same extent as professional competence, as the former underpins the latter, and both are linked to professional identity.

  14. Targeting Low Career Confidence Using the Career Planning Confidence Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    McAuliffe, Garrett; Jurgens, Jill C.; Pickering, Worth; Calliotte, James; Macera, Anthony; Zerwas, Steven

    2006-01-01

    The authors describe the development and validation of a test of career planning confidence that makes possible the targeting of specific problem issues in employment counseling. The scale, developed using a rational process and the authors' experience with clients, was tested for criterion-related validity against 2 other measures. The scale…

  15. Are predatory journals undermining the credibility of science?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frandsen, Tove Faber

    2017-01-01

    as potential poor scientific standards journals. Citations to 124 potential predatory journals and poor scientific standards journals are looked up in Scopus and the citing authors analysed in regards to geographic location, publications and citations. The results show that the characteristics of the citing...

  16. Robust misinterpretation of confidence intervals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoekstra, Rink; Morey, Richard; Rouder, Jeffrey N.; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

    2014-01-01

    Null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) is undoubtedly the most common inferential technique used to justify claims in the social sciences. However, even staunch defenders of NHST agree that its outcomes are often misinterpreted. Confidence intervals (CIs) have frequently been proposed as a more

  17. Are Debt Repayment Incentives Undermined by Foreign Aid?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjørnskov, Christian; Schröder, Philipp J.H.

    This paper investigates the effects of inflows of foreign aid on the debt repayment behaviour of developing countries. The paper first delineates the overall incentives to committing to timely repayment in a war of attrition-type model. A set of panel estimates including 93 developing countries...... shows that foreign aid is strongly negatively associated with repayment incentives. The findings pertain to both total debt service and service on publically guaranteed debt. Only countries that tend to vote predominantly with the US in the UN General Assembly are not significantly discouraged from...... servicing their debt by inflows of foreign aid....

  18. Are Debt Repayment Incentives Undermined by Foreign Aid?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjørnskov, Christian; Schröder, Philipp

    2013-01-01

    This paper investigates the effects of inflows of foreign aid on the debt repayment behavior of developing countries. The paper first delineates the overall incentives to committing to timely debt repayment in a war of attrition-type model. A set of panel estimates including 93 developing countries...... shows that foreign aid is strongly negatively associated with repayment incentives. The findings pertain to both total debt service and service on publically guaranteed debt. A set of conditional estimates suggest that the main findings generalize to the majority of developing countries...

  19. Methodology for building confidence measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bramson, Aaron L.

    2004-04-01

    This paper presents a generalized methodology for propagating known or estimated levels of individual source document truth reliability to determine the confidence level of a combined output. Initial document certainty levels are augmented by (i) combining the reliability measures of multiply sources, (ii) incorporating the truth reinforcement of related elements, and (iii) incorporating the importance of the individual elements for determining the probability of truth for the whole. The result is a measure of confidence in system output based on the establishing of links among the truth values of inputs. This methodology was developed for application to a multi-component situation awareness tool under development at the Air Force Research Laboratory in Rome, New York. Determining how improvements in data quality and the variety of documents collected affect the probability of a correct situational detection helps optimize the performance of the tool overall.

  20. Alan Greenspan, the confidence strategy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edwin Le Heron

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available To evaluate the Greenspan era, we nevertheless need to address three questions: Is his success due to talent or just luck? Does he have a system of monetary policy or is he himself the system? What will be his legacy? Greenspan was certainly lucky, but he was also clairvoyant. Above all, he has developed a profoundly original monetary policy. His confidence strategy is clearly opposed to the credibility strategy developed in central banks and the academic milieu after 1980, but also inflation targeting, which today constitutes the mainstream monetary policy regime. The question of his legacy seems more nuanced. However, Greenspan will remain 'for a considerable period of time' a highly heterodox and original central banker. His political vision, his perception of an uncertain world, his pragmatism and his openness form the structure of a powerful alternative system, the confidence strategy, which will leave its mark on the history of monetary policy.

  1. Publicity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chisholm, Joan

    Publicity for preschool cooperatives is described. Publicity helps produce financial support for preschool cooperatives. It may take the form of posters, brochures, newsletters, open house, newspaper coverage, and radio and television. Word of mouth and general good will in the community are the best avenues of publicity that a cooperative nursery…

  2. Leadership by Confidence in Teams

    OpenAIRE

    Kobayashi, Hajime; Suehiro, Hideo

    2008-01-01

    We study endogenous signaling by analyzing a team production problem with endogenous timing. Each agent of the team is privately endowed with some level of confidence about team productivity. Each of them must then commit a level of effort in one of two periods. At the end of each period, each agent observes his partner' s move in this period. Both agents are rewarded by a team output determined by team productivity and total invested effort. Each agent must personally incur the cost of effor...

  3. Workshop on confidence limits. Proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    James, F.; Lyons, L.; Perrin, Y.

    2000-01-01

    The First Workshop on Confidence Limits was held at CERN on 17-18 January 2000. It was devoted to the problem of setting confidence limits in difficult cases: number of observed events is small or zero, background is larger than signal, background not well known, and measurements near a physical boundary. Among the many examples in high-energy physics are searches for the Higgs, searches for neutrino oscillations, B s mixing, SUSY, compositeness, neutrino masses, and dark matter. Several different methods are on the market: the CL s methods used by the LEP Higgs searches; Bayesian methods; Feldman-Cousins and modifications thereof; empirical and combined methods. The Workshop generated considerable interest, and attendance was finally limited by the seating capacity of the CERN Council Chamber where all the sessions took place. These proceedings contain all the papers presented, as well as the full text of the discussions after each paper and of course the last session which was a discussion session. The list of participants and the 'required reading', which was expected to be part of the prior knowledge of all participants, are also included. (orig.)

  4. The Great Recession and confidence in homeownership

    OpenAIRE

    Anat Bracha; Julian Jamison

    2013-01-01

    Confidence in homeownership shifts for those who personally experienced real estate loss during the Great Recession. Older Americans are confident in the value of homeownership. Younger Americans are less confident.

  5. Competing infant feeding information in mothers' networks: advice that supports v. undermines clinical recommendations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashida, Sato; Lynn, Freda B; Williams, Natalie A; Schafer, Ellen J

    2016-05-01

    To identify the social contextual factors, specifically the presence of information that supports v. undermines clinical recommendations, associated with infant feeding behaviours among mothers in low-income areas. Cross-sectional survey evaluating social support networks and social relationships involved in providing care to the infant along with feeding beliefs and practices. Out-patient paediatric and government-funded (Women, Infants, and Children) clinics in an urban, low-income area of the south-eastern USA. Eighty-one low-income mothers of infants between 0 and 12 months old. Most mothers reported receiving both supportive and undermining advice. The presence of breast-feeding advice that supports clinical recommendations was associated with two infant feeding practices that are considered beneficial to infant health: ever breast-feeding (OR=6·7; 95% CI 1·2, 38·1) and not adding cereal in the infant's bottle (OR=15·9; 95% CI 1·1, 227·4). Advice that undermines clinical recommendations to breast-feed and advice about solid foods were not associated with these behaviours. Efforts to facilitate optimal infant feeding practices may focus on increasing information supportive of clinical recommendations while concentrating less on reducing the presence of undermining information within mothers' networks. Cultural norms around breast-feeding may be stronger than the cultural norms around the introduction of solid foods in mothers' social environments; thus, additional efforts to increase information regarding introduction of solid foods earlier in mothers' infant care career may be beneficial.

  6. Do Economic Problems at Home Undermine Worker Safety Abroad? : A Panel Study, 1980-2009

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lim, S.; Prakash, A.

    Do economic downturns in the Global North undermine worker safety in the Global South? Literature suggests that bilateral trade linkages lead to the diffusion of “good” labor standards from importing countries of the Global North to exporting countries of the Global South. The crucial mechanism is

  7. How Patronage Politics Undermines Parental Participation and Accountability: Community-Managed Schools in Honduras and Guatemala

    Science.gov (United States)

    Altschuler, Daniel

    2013-01-01

    This article shows how patronage politics affects a popular international education model: community-managed schools (CMS). Focusing on Honduras's CMS initiative, PROHECO (Programa Hondureno de Educacion Comunitaria), I demonstrate how patronage can undermine CMS accountability. Whereas supporters argue that CMS increases accountability, partisan…

  8. Understanding how common ingroup identity undermines collective action among disadvantaged-group members

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ufkes, Elze Gooitzen; Calcagno, Justine; Glasford, Demis; Dovidio, John F.

    2016-01-01

    Past research has consistently demonstrated that creating a sense of a common ingroup identity can be beneficial for reducing intergroup tensions and creating intergroup harmony. At the same time, however, creating a strong sense of a common ingroup identity has elements that may undermine

  9. Costing the invisible: A review of the evidence examining the links between body image, aspirations, education and workplace confidence

    OpenAIRE

    Halliwell, E.; Diedrichs, P. C.; Orbach, S.

    2014-01-01

    Throughout the world, girls and women are interested in their looks. What has been perceived as an enjoyable part of life is however imbued with negative economic and psychological costs which are rarely calculated. International studies confirm the disturbing trend that body dissatisfaction and the perception that one is too large (even if this is not the case) undermine adolescent girls’ academic achievement. It doesn’t lead to failure, but to a diminishing in confidence and hence in perfor...

  10. Knowledge, Self Confidence and Courage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Selberg, Hanne; Steenberg Holtzmann, Jette; Hovedskov, Jette

    . Results The students identified their major learning outcomes as transfer of operational skills, experiencing self-efficacy and enhanced understanding of the patients' perspective.Involving simulated patients in the training of technical skills contributed to the development of the students' communication......Knowledge, self confidence and courage – long lasting learning outcomes through simulation in a clinical context. Hanne Selberg1, Jette Hovedskov2, Jette Steenberg Holtzmann2 The significance and methodology of the researchThe study focuses on simulation alongside the clinical practice and linked...... Development, Clinical Lecturer, Metropolitan University College, Faculty of Nursing, Email: hase@phoe.dk, phone: +45-72282830. 2. Jette Hovedskov, RN, Development Consultant, Glostrup University Hospital, Department of Development Email : jeho@glo.regionh.dk ,phone: +45- 43232090 3. Jette Holtzmann Steenberg...

  11. Family Health Histories and Their Impact on Retirement Confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zick, Cathleen D; Mayer, Robert N; Smith, Ken R

    2015-08-01

    Retirement confidence is a key social barometer. In this article, we examine how personal and parental health histories relate to working-age adults' feelings of optimism or pessimism about their overall retirement prospects. This study links survey data on retirement planning with information on respondents' own health histories and those of their parents. The multivariate models control for the respondents' socio-demographic and economic characteristics along with past retirement planning activities when estimating the relationships between family health histories and retirement confidence. Retirement confidence is inversely related to parental history of cancer and cardiovascular disease but not to personal health history. In contrast, retirement confidence is positively associated with both parents being deceased. As members of the public become increasingly aware of how genetics and other family factors affect intergenerational transmission of chronic diseases, it is likely that the link between family health histories and retirement confidence will intensify. © The Author(s) 2015.

  12. Communicating confidence and creating credibility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ungermark, S.

    1991-01-01

    To educate the general public and their opinion leaders in radioactive waste management is imperative to reach the decision where to site the Swedish repository for spent nuclear fuel. After analyzing existing opinion figures over the years, new approaches have been made in Sweden with less technical messages. By using touring exhibitions, manned by people with hands-on experience of waste management, a two-way communication climate has been reached

  13. Confidence building in safety assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grundfelt, Bertil

    1999-01-01

    Future generations should be adequately protected from damage caused by the present disposal of radioactive waste. This presentation discusses the core of safety and performance assessment: The demonstration and building of confidence that the disposal system meets the safety requirements stipulated by society. The major difficulty is to deal with risks in the very long time perspective of the thousands of years during which the waste is hazardous. Concern about these problems has stimulated the development of the safety assessment discipline. The presentation concentrates on two of the elements of safety assessment: (1) Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, and (2) validation and review. Uncertainty is associated both with respect to what is the proper conceptual model and with respect to parameter values for a given model. A special kind of uncertainty derives from the variation of a property in space. Geostatistics is one approach to handling spatial variability. The simplest way of doing a sensitivity analysis is to offset the model parameters one by one and observe how the model output changes. The validity of the models and data used to make predictions is central to the credibility of safety assessments for radioactive waste repositories. There are several definitions of model validation. The presentation discusses it as a process and highlights some aspects of validation methodologies

  14. Robust misinterpretation of confidence intervals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoekstra, Rink; Morey, Richard D; Rouder, Jeffrey N; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

    2014-10-01

    Null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) is undoubtedly the most common inferential technique used to justify claims in the social sciences. However, even staunch defenders of NHST agree that its outcomes are often misinterpreted. Confidence intervals (CIs) have frequently been proposed as a more useful alternative to NHST, and their use is strongly encouraged in the APA Manual. Nevertheless, little is known about how researchers interpret CIs. In this study, 120 researchers and 442 students-all in the field of psychology-were asked to assess the truth value of six particular statements involving different interpretations of a CI. Although all six statements were false, both researchers and students endorsed, on average, more than three statements, indicating a gross misunderstanding of CIs. Self-declared experience with statistics was not related to researchers' performance, and, even more surprisingly, researchers hardly outperformed the students, even though the students had not received any education on statistical inference whatsoever. Our findings suggest that many researchers do not know the correct interpretation of a CI. The misunderstandings surrounding p-values and CIs are particularly unfortunate because they constitute the main tools by which psychologists draw conclusions from data.

  15. Undermining 'data'

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Markham, Annette

    2013-01-01

    or the veracity of, but not the existence of. This article critically examines the concept of ‘data’ within larger questions of research method and frameworks for scientific inquiry. The current dominance of the term ‘data’ and ‘big data’ in discussions of scientific inquiry as well as everyday advertising...... focuses our attention on only certain aspects of the research process. The author suggests deliberately decentering the term, to explore nuanced frames for describing the materials, processes, and goals of inquiry....

  16. Undermining Anarchy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Swann, Thomas; Husted, Emil

    2017-01-01

    Drawing on concepts rooted in cybernetics and anarchist political theory, this article argues that the shift in Occupy Wall Street from being a physical protest camp in late 2011 to an online movement in 2012 coincided with a shift in social media activity. Analysis of Facebook activity suggests...

  17. Trust, confidence, and the 2008 global financial crisis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Earle, Timothy C

    2009-06-01

    The 2008 global financial crisis has been compared to a "once-in-a-century credit tsunami," a disaster in which the loss of trust and confidence played key precipitating roles and the recovery from which will require the restoration of these crucial factors. Drawing on the analogy between the financial crisis and environmental and technological hazards, recent research on the role of trust and confidence in the latter is used to provide a perspective on the former. Whereas "trust" and "confidence" are used interchangeably and without explicit definition in most discussions of the financial crisis, this perspective uses the TCC model of cooperation to clearly distinguish between the two and to demonstrate how this distinction can lead to an improved understanding of the crisis. The roles of trust and confidence-both in precipitation and in possible recovery-are discussed for each of the three major sets of actors in the crisis, the regulators, the banks, and the public. The roles of trust and confidence in the larger context of risk management are also examined; trust being associated with political approaches, confidence with technical. Finally, the various stances that government can take with regard to trust-such as supportive or skeptical-are considered. Overall, it is argued that a clear understanding of trust and confidence and a close examination of the specific, concrete circumstances of a crisis-revealing when either trust or confidence is appropriate-can lead to useful insights for both recovery and prevention of future occurrences.

  18. INSAR For Early Warning Of Possible Highway Instability Over Undermined Area Of Ostrava

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lazecky, Milan; Kacmarik, Michal; Rapant, Petr

    2012-01-01

    A part of czech highway D1 connecting Ostrava with Prague and Poland, is built over an undermined area of Ostrava-Svinov. Since the end of 2010, this part of the highway is fully operational. Because of undermining, a subsidence can be expected, however with a very slow rate since the mines are no more active in this area. Several TerraSAR-X images from 2011 are investigated interferometrically in order to estimate a precise deformation model. Subjects of interest are movements of newly built highway bridges, banks and close neighbourhood. Existing C-band multitemporal InSAR processing results of ERS and Envisat are available from an earlier period that reveil a slow trend of residual subsidence. In this project, InSAR will be investigated as a tool for an early warning for highway stability.

  19. Different levels of undermining in face lift - Experience of 141 consecutive cases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Panettiere Pietro

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available CONTEXT: The most revolutionary concept in rhytidectomy is the role of Sub Muscular Aponeurotic System (SMAS, even if many alternative approaches have been proposed. The main aim of face lift is to bring back the time, preventing the "lifted-face" appearance. SETTINGS AND DESIGN: The authors present their personal experience with different levels of undermining, i.e. subperiosteal forehead lift, subcutaneous midface lift with SMAS plication and platysmal suspension, and discuss the anatomical and biomechanical elements of rhytidectomy. RESULTS: Optimal aesthetic results were achieved by repositioning the neck, face and forehead tissues in a global and harmonious fashion, without distorting face characteristics and disguising surgery trails as much as possible. CONCLUSIONS: Different levels of undermining can give good and stable aesthetic results minimizing the risks and preventing face distortion.

  20. Confidence sets for asset correlations in portfolio credit risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Castro

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Asset correlations are of critical importance in quantifying portfolio credit risk and economic capitalin financial institutions. Estimation of asset correlation with rating transition data has focusedon the point estimation of the correlation without giving any consideration to the uncertaintyaround these point estimates. In this article we use Bayesian methods to estimate a dynamicfactor model for default risk using rating data (McNeil et al., 2005; McNeil and Wendin, 2007.Bayesian methods allow us to formally incorporate human judgement in the estimation of assetcorrelation, through the prior distribution and fully characterize a confidence set for the correlations.Results indicate: i a two factor model rather than the one factor model, as proposed bythe Basel II framework, better represents the historical default data. ii importance of unobservedfactors in this type of models is reinforced and point out that the levels of the implied asset correlationscritically depend on the latent state variable used to capture the dynamics of default,as well as other assumptions on the statistical model. iii the posterior distributions of the assetcorrelations show that the Basel recommended bounds, for this parameter, undermine the levelof systemic risk.

  1. Do treatment manuals undermine youth–therapist alliance in community clinical practice?

    OpenAIRE

    Langer, David A.; McLeod, Bryce D.; Weisz, John R

    2011-01-01

    Objective: Some critics of treatment manuals have argued that their use may undermine the quality of the client–therapist alliance. This notion was tested in the context of youth psychotherapy delivered by therapists in community clinics. Method: Seventy-six clinically referred youths (57% female, age 8–15 years, 34% Caucasian) were randomly assigned to receive nonmanualized usual care or manual-guided treatment to address anxiety or depressive disorders. Treatment was provided in community c...

  2. Undermining belief in false memories leads to less efficient problem-solving behaviour.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jianqin; Otgaar, Henry; Howe, Mark L; Smeets, Tom; Merckelbach, Harald; Nahouli, Zacharia

    2017-08-01

    Memories of events for which the belief in the occurrence of those events is undermined, but recollection is retained, are called nonbelieved memories (NBMs). The present experiments examined the effects of NBMs on subsequent problem-solving behaviour. In Experiment 1, we challenged participants' beliefs in their memories and examined whether NBMs affected subsequent solution rates on insight-based problems. True and false memories were elicited using the Deese/Roediger-McDermott (DRM) paradigm. Then participants' belief in true and false memories was challenged by telling them the item had not been presented. We found that when the challenge led to undermining belief in false memories, fewer problems were solved than when belief was not challenged. In Experiment 2, a similar procedure was used except that some participants solved the problems one week rather than immediately after the feedback. Again, our results showed that undermining belief in false memories resulted in lower problem solution rates. These findings suggest that for false memories, belief is an important agent in whether memories serve as effective primes for immediate and delayed problem-solving.

  3. Work stressors and partner social undermining: Comparing negative affect and psychological detachment as mechanisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meier, Laurenz L; Cho, Eunae

    2018-05-14

    With the mounting evidence that employees' work experiences spill over into the family domain and cross over to family members, it is important to understand the underlying mechanism through which work experiences affect the family domain and what factors may alleviate the adverse impact of work stress. Expanding previous research that mainly focused on the affect-based mechanism (negative affect), the present research investigated a resource-based mechanism (psychological detachment from work) in the relationship linking two work stressors (high workload and workplace incivility) with social undermining toward the partner at home. We also explored the relative strength of the mediating effects of the two mechanisms. In addition, we tested whether relationship satisfaction moderates the proposed effect of detachment on partner undermining. We tested these research questions using two studies with differing designs: a five-wave longitudinal study (N = 470) and a multisource study (N = 131). The results suggest that stressful work experiences affect the family domain via lack of detachment as well as negative affect, that the two pathways have comparable strength, and that high relationship satisfaction mitigates the negative effect of lack of detachment on partner undermining. In sum, this research extends the spillover-crossover model by establishing that poor psychological detachment from work during leisure time is an additional mechanism that links work and family. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  4. A comparative evaluation of four restorative materials to support undermined occlusal enamel of permanent teeth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prabhakar A

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to test the support to undermined occlusal enamel provided by posterior restorative composite (FiltekTM P60, 3M Dental products USA, polyacid modified resin composite (F2000 compomer, 3M Dental products, USA., radiopaque silver alloy-glass ionomer cement (Miracle Mix. GC Corp, Tokyo, Japan and Glass Ionomer cement (Fuji IX GP. To test each material, 20 human permanent mandibular third molars were selected. The lingual cusps were removed and the dentin supporting the facial cusps was cut away, leaving a shell of enamel. Each group of prepared teeth was restored using the materials according to the manufacturer′s instructions. All the specimens were thermocycled (250 cycles, 6°C- 60°C, dwell time 30 seconds and then mounted on an acrylic base. Specimens were loaded evenly across the cusp tips at a crosshead speed of 5 mm /minute in Hounsfield universal testing machine until fracture occurred. Data obtained was analyzed using analysis of variance and Studentized- Newman- Keul′s range test. No significant differences were detected in the support provided by P-60, F 2000, Miracle Mix or Fuji IX GP groups. The support provided to undermined occlusal enamel by these materials was intermediate between no support and that provided by sound dentin. Without further development in dental material technology and evidence of its efficacy, restorative materials should not be relied upon to support undermined occlusal enamel to a level comparable to that provided by sound dentin.

  5. Management Strategies Required for Preventing and Combating Corruption in Public Administration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sorin Adrian Ciupitu

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Corruption level is symptomatic of the economic, political and general social development and its manifestation is harmful to ethics and morals and undermines public confidence in the rule of law. In Romania we are witnessing a penetration of corruption in areas that should support the country’s economic development. Companies from more and more zones of activity are pushed into gear economy. The immediate effect of this situation is reflected in a vicious circle in which endemic corruption is leading to lower revenues and public investment and weakens the credibility of the rule of law. It also generates negative changes in the economic development through inefficient transactions, sometimes lacking rationality, altering capital accumulation and its productivity, government revenues and the quality of public infrastructure.

  6. High Confidence Software and Systems Research Needs

    Data.gov (United States)

    Networking and Information Technology Research and Development, Executive Office of the President — This White Paper presents a survey of high confidence software and systems research needs. It has been prepared by the High Confidence Software and Systems...

  7. Uranium ... long-term confidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1983-01-01

    Half way through 1983 the outlook for the world's uranium producers was far from bright if one takes a short term view. The readily accessible facts present a gloomy picture. The spot prices of uranium over the past few years decreased from a high of $42-$43/lb to a low of $17 in 1982. It now hovers between $23 and $24. the contract prices negotiated between producers and consumers are not so accessible but they do not reflect the spot price. The reasons why contractual uranium prices do not follow the usual dictates of supply and demand are related to the position in which uranium and associated power industries find themselves. There is public reaction with strong emotional overtones as well as much reduced expectations about the electric power needs of the world. Furthermore the supply of uranium is not guaranteed despite present over production. However the people in the industry, taking the medium- and long-term view, are not despondent

  8. 78 FR 57538 - Proposed Waste Confidence Rule and Draft Generic Environmental Impact Statement

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-19

    ..., Chief, Communication, Planning, and Rulemaking Branch Waste Confidence Directorate, Office of Nuclear...-2012-0246] RIN 3150-AJ20 Proposed Waste Confidence Rule and Draft Generic Environmental Impact... disposal (proposed Waste Confidence rule). In addition, the NRC will receive public comment on its...

  9. Openness and transparency: the road to public confidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaczko, G.

    2007-01-01

    This workshop on transparency of Nuclear Regulatory Activities was held from 22 to 24 May 2007, in Tokyo and Tokai-Mura, Japan. The first session was devoted to clarifying the concept of transparency as used in the field of nuclear safety regulation. This document is the presentation of the chairman of the session and offers a global evaluation of the session. (A.L.B.)

  10. Men and talk about legal abortion in South Africa: equality, support and rights discourses undermining reproductive 'choice'.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macleod, Catriona Ida; Hansjee, Jateen

    2013-01-01

    Discursive constructions of abortion are embedded in the social and gendered power relations of a particular socio-historical space. As part of research on public discourses concerning abortion in South Africa where there has been a radical liberalisation of abortion legislation, we collected data from male group discussions about a vignette concerning abortion, and newspaper articles written by men about abortion. Our analysis revealed how discourses of equality, support and rights may be used by men to subtly undermine women's reproductive right to 'choose' an abortion. Within an Equal Partnership discourse, abortion, paired with the assumption of foetal personhood, was equated with violating an equal heterosexual partnership and a man's patriarchal duty to protect a child. A New Man discourse, which positions men as supportive of women, was paired with the assumption of men as rational and women as irrational in decision-making, to allow for the possibility of men dissuading women from terminating a pregnancy. A Rights discourse was invoked to suggest that abortion violates men's paternal rights.

  11. Regional Competition for Confidence: Features of Formation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irina Svyatoslavovna Vazhenina

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The increase in economic independence of the regions inevitably leads to an increase in the quality requirements of the regional economic policy. The key to successful regional policy, both during its development and implementation, is the understanding of the necessity of gaining confidence (at all levels, and the inevitable participation in the competition for confidence. The importance of confidence in the region is determined by its value as a competitive advantage in the struggle for partners, resources and tourists, and attracting investments. In today’s environment the focus of governments, regions and companies on long-term cooperation is clearly expressed, which is impossible without a high level of confidence between partners. Therefore, the most important competitive advantages of territories are intangible assets such as an attractive image and a good reputation, which builds up confidence of the population and partners. The higher the confidence in the region is, the broader is the range of potential partners, the larger is the planning horizon of long-term concerted action, the better are the chances of acquiring investment, the higher is the level of competitive immunity of the territories. The article defines competition for confidence as purposeful behavior of a market participant in economic environment, aimed at acquiring specific intangible competitive advantage – the confidence of the largest possible number of other market actors. The article also highlights the specifics of confidence as a competitive goal, presents factors contributing to the destruction of confidence, proposes a strategy to fight for confidence as a program of four steps, considers the factors which integrate regional confidence and offers several recommendations for the establishment of effective regional competition for confidence

  12. Providing Extrinsic Reward for Test Performance Undermines Long-Term Memory Acquisition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christof eKuhbandner

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Based on numerous studies showing that testing studied material can improve long-term retention more than restudying the same material, it is often suggested that the number of tests in education should be increased to enhance knowledge acquisition. However, testing in real-life educational settings often entails a high degree of extrinsic motivation of learners due to the common practice of placing important consequences on the outcome of a test. Such an effect on the motivation of learners may undermine the beneficial effects of testing on long-term memory because it has been shown that extrinsic motivation can reduce the quality of learning. To examine this issue, participants learned foreign language vocabulary words, followed by an immediate test in which one third of the words were tested and one third restudied. To manipulate extrinsic motivation during immediate testing, participants received either monetary reward contingent on test performance or no reward. After one week, memory for all words was tested. In the immediate test, reward reduced correct recall and increased commission errors, indicating that reward reduced the number of items that can benefit from successful retrieval. The results in the delayed test revealed that reward additionally reduced the gain received from successful retrieval because memory for initially successfully retrieved words was lower in the reward condition. However, testing was still more effective than restudying under reward conditions because reward undermined long-term memory for concurrently restudied material as well. These findings indicate that providing performance-contingent reward in a test can undermine long-term knowledge acquisition.

  13. Providing Extrinsic Reward for Test Performance Undermines Long-Term Memory Acquisition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuhbandner, Christof; Aslan, Alp; Emmerdinger, Kathrin; Murayama, Kou

    2016-01-01

    Based on numerous studies showing that testing studied material can improve long-term retention more than restudying the same material, it is often suggested that the number of tests in education should be increased to enhance knowledge acquisition. However, testing in real-life educational settings often entails a high degree of extrinsic motivation of learners due to the common practice of placing important consequences on the outcome of a test. Such an effect on the motivation of learners may undermine the beneficial effects of testing on long-term memory because it has been shown that extrinsic motivation can reduce the quality of learning. To examine this issue, participants learned foreign language vocabulary words, followed by an immediate test in which one-third of the words were tested and one-third restudied. To manipulate extrinsic motivation during immediate testing, participants received either monetary reward contingent on test performance or no reward. After 1 week, memory for all words was tested. In the immediate test, reward reduced correct recall and increased commission errors, indicating that reward reduced the number of items that can benefit from successful retrieval. The results in the delayed test revealed that reward additionally reduced the gain received from successful retrieval because memory for initially successfully retrieved words was lower in the reward condition. However, testing was still more effective than restudying under reward conditions because reward undermined long-term memory for concurrently restudied material as well. These findings indicate that providing performance-contingent reward in a test can undermine long-term knowledge acquisition.

  14. Nursing's orphans: how the system of nursing education in Australia is undermining professional identity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madsen, Wendy; McAllister, Margaret; Godden, Judith; Greenhill, Jennene; Reed, Rachel

    2009-01-01

    This paper draws on the results of a national study of approaches to teaching nursing's history in Australia. We argue that the neglect of history learning within undergraduate nursing and midwifery education is undermining the development in students of a strong professional nursing identity. The data in our study shows that instead of proud, informed professionals, we are at risk of producing a generation of professional orphans -- unaware of who they are and where they've come from, unaware of reasons underlying cultural practices within the profession, lacking in vision for the future, insecure about their capacity to contribute to future directions, and not feeling part of something bigger and more enduring.

  15. Public acceptability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bolter, H.E.

    1989-01-01

    An urgent need to rebuild public confidence after an incident attracting widespread adverse publicity led to the development by British Nuclear Fuels plc of a completely new approach to public relations. The Company's experience suggests that impressions count more than sheer information, provided the impressions have a firm base in reality. (author)

  16. Authorization of Animal Experiments Is Based on Confidence Rather than Evidence of Scientific Rigor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nathues, Christina; Würbel, Hanno

    2016-01-01

    animal experiments are lacking important information about experimental conduct that determines the scientific validity of the findings, which may be critical for the weight attributed to the benefit of the research in the harm–benefit analysis. Similar to manuscripts getting accepted for publication despite poor reporting of measures against bias, applications for animal experiments may often be approved based on implicit confidence rather than explicit evidence of scientific rigor. Our findings shed serious doubt on the current authorization procedure for animal experiments, as well as the peer-review process for scientific publications, which in the long run may undermine the credibility of research. Developing existing authorization procedures that are already in place in many countries towards a preregistration system for animal research is one promising way to reform the system. This would not only benefit the scientific validity of findings from animal experiments but also help to avoid unnecessary harm to animals for inconclusive research. PMID:27911892

  17. Confidence Intervals: From tests of statistical significance to confidence intervals, range hypotheses and substantial effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dominic Beaulieu-Prévost

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available For the last 50 years of research in quantitative social sciences, the empirical evaluation of scientific hypotheses has been based on the rejection or not of the null hypothesis. However, more than 300 articles demonstrated that this method was problematic. In summary, null hypothesis testing (NHT is unfalsifiable, its results depend directly on sample size and the null hypothesis is both improbable and not plausible. Consequently, alternatives to NHT such as confidence intervals (CI and measures of effect size are starting to be used in scientific publications. The purpose of this article is, first, to provide the conceptual tools necessary to implement an approach based on confidence intervals, and second, to briefly demonstrate why such an approach is an interesting alternative to an approach based on NHT. As demonstrated in the article, the proposed CI approach avoids most problems related to a NHT approach and can often improve the scientific and contextual relevance of the statistical interpretations by testing range hypotheses instead of a point hypothesis and by defining the minimal value of a substantial effect. The main advantage of such a CI approach is that it replaces the notion of statistical power by an easily interpretable three-value logic (probable presence of a substantial effect, probable absence of a substantial effect and probabilistic undetermination. The demonstration includes a complete example.

  18. Subtle Scientific Fallacies Undermine the Validity of Neuroendocrinological Research: Do Not Draw Premature Conclusions on the Role of Female Sex Hormones.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hengartner, Michael P

    2017-01-01

    Major scientific flaws such as reporting and publication biases are well documented, even though acknowledgment of their importance appears to be lacking in various psychological and medical fields. Subtle and less obvious biases including selective reviews of the literature and empirically unsupported conclusions and recommendations have received even less attention. Using the literature on the association between transition to menopause, hormones and the onset of depression as a guiding example, I outline how such scientific fallacies undermine the validity of neuroendocrinological research. It is shown that in contrast to prominent claims, first, most prospective studies do not support the notion that the menopausal transition relates to increased risk for depression, second, that associations between hormone levels and depression are largely inconsistent and irreproducible, and, third, that the evidence for the efficacy of hormone therapy for the treatment of depression is very weak and at best inconclusive. I conclude that a direct and uniform association between female sex hormones and depression is clearly not supported by the literature and that more attention should be paid to the manifold scientific biases that undermine the validity of findings in psychological and medical research, with a specific focus on the behavioral neurosciences.

  19. Financial Motivation Undermines Maintenance in an Intensive Diet and Activity Intervention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moller, Arlen C.; McFadden, H. Gene; Hedeker, Donald; Spring, Bonnie

    2012-01-01

    Financial incentives are widely used in health behavior interventions. However, self-determination theory posits that emphasizing financial incentives can have negative consequences if experienced as controlling. Feeling controlled into performing a behavior tends to reduce enjoyment and undermine maintenance after financial contingencies are removed (the undermining effect). We assessed participants' context-specific financial motivation to participate in the Make Better Choices trial—a trial testing four different strategies for improving four health risk behaviors: low fruit and vegetable intake, high saturated fat intake, low physical activity, and high sedentary screen time. The primary outcome was overall healthy lifestyle change; weight loss was a secondary outcome. Financial incentives were contingent upon meeting behavior goals for 3 weeks and became contingent upon merely providing data during the 4.5-month maintenance period. Financial motivation for participation was assessed at baseline using a 7-item scale (α = .97). Across conditions, a main effect of financial motivation predicted a steeper rate of weight regained during the maintenance period, t(165) = 2.15, P = .04. Furthermore, financial motivation and gender interacted significantly in predicting maintenance of healthy diet and activity changes, t(160) = 2.42, P = .016, such that financial motivation had a more deleterious influence among men. Implications for practice and future research on incentivized lifestyle and weight interventions are discussed. PMID:22548152

  20. Financial Motivation Undermines Maintenance in an Intensive Diet and Activity Intervention

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arlen C. Moller

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Financial incentives are widely used in health behavior interventions. However, self-determination theory posits that emphasizing financial incentives can have negative consequences if experienced as controlling. Feeling controlled into performing a behavior tends to reduce enjoyment and undermine maintenance after financial contingencies are removed (the undermining effect. We assessed participants’ context-specific financial motivation to participate in the Make Better Choices trial—a trial testing four different strategies for improving four health risk behaviors: low fruit and vegetable intake, high saturated fat intake, low physical activity, and high sedentary screen time. The primary outcome was overall healthy lifestyle change; weight loss was a secondary outcome. Financial incentives were contingent upon meeting behavior goals for 3 weeks and became contingent upon merely providing data during the 4.5-month maintenance period. Financial motivation for participation was assessed at baseline using a 7-item scale (=.97. Across conditions, a main effect of financial motivation predicted a steeper rate of weight regained during the maintenance period, (165=2.15, =.04. Furthermore, financial motivation and gender interacted significantly in predicting maintenance of healthy diet and activity changes, (160=2.42, =.016, such that financial motivation had a more deleterious influence among men. Implications for practice and future research on incentivized lifestyle and weight interventions are discussed.

  1. Stereotype threat engenders neural attentional bias toward negative feedback to undermine performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forbes, Chad E; Leitner, Jordan B

    2014-10-01

    Stereotype threat, a situational pressure individuals experience when they fear confirming a negative group stereotype, engenders a cascade of physiological stress responses, negative appraisals, and performance monitoring processes that tax working memory resources necessary for optimal performance. Less is known, however, about how stereotype threat biases attentional processing in response to performance feedback, and how such attentional biases may undermine performance. Women received feedback on math problems in stereotype threatening compared to stereotype-neutral contexts while continuous EEG activity was recorded. Findings revealed that stereotype threatened women elicited larger midline P100 ERPs, increased phase locking between anterior cingulate cortex and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (two regions integral for attentional processes), and increased power in left fusiform gyrus in response to negative feedback compared to positive feedback and women in stereotype-neutral contexts. Increased power in left fusiform gyrus in response to negative feedback predicted underperformance on the math task among stereotype threatened women only. Women in stereotype-neutral contexts exhibited the opposite trend. Findings suggest that in stereotype threatening contexts, neural networks integral for attention and working memory are biased toward negative, stereotype confirming feedback at very early speeds of information processing. This bias, in turn, plays a role in undermining performance. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Committee Opinion No. 683: Behavior That Undermines a Culture of Safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    A key element of an organizational safety culture is maintaining an environment of professionalism that encourages communication and promotes high-quality care. Behavior that undermines a culture of safety, including disruptive or intimidating behavior, has a negative effect on the quality and safety of patient care. Intimidating behavior and disruptive behavior are unprofessional and should not be tolerated. Confronting disruptive individuals is difficult. Co-workers often are reluctant to report disruptive behavior because of fear of retaliation and the stigma associated with "blowing the whistle" on a colleague. Additionally, negative behavior of revenue-generating physicians may be overlooked because of concern about the perceived consequences of confronting them. The Joint Commission requires that hospitals establish a code of conduct that "defines acceptable behavior and behavior that undermines a culture of safety." Clear standards of behavior that acknowledge the consequences of disruptive and intimidating behavior must be established and communicated. Institutions and practices should develop a multifaceted approach to address disruptive behavior. Confidential reporting systems and assistance programs for physicians who exhibit disruptive behavior should be established. A concerted effort should be made within each organization to educate staff (ie, medical, nursing, and ancillary staff) about the potential negative effects of disruptive and inappropriate behavior. A clearly delineated hospital-wide policy and procedure relating to disruptive behavior should be developed and enforced by hospital administration. To preserve professional standing, physicians should understand how to respond to and mitigate the effect of complaints or reports.

  3. The compassionate sexist? How benevolent sexism promotes and undermines gender equality in the workplace.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hideg, Ivona; Ferris, D Lance

    2016-11-01

    Although sexist attitudes are generally thought to undermine support for employment equity (EE) policies supporting women, we argue that the effects of benevolent sexism are more complex. Across 4 studies, we extend the ambivalent sexism literature by examining both the positive and the negative effects benevolent sexism has for the support of gender-based EE policies. On the positive side, we show that individuals who endorse benevolent sexist attitudes on trait measures of sexism (Study 1) and individuals primed with benevolent sexist attitudes (Study 2) are more likely to support an EE policy, and that this effect is mediated by feelings of compassion. On the negative side, we find that this support extends only to EE policies that promote the hiring of women in feminine, and not in masculine, positions (Study 3 and 4). Thus, while benevolent sexism may appear to promote gender equality, it subtly undermines it by contributing to occupational gender segregation and leading to inaction in promoting women in positions in which they are underrepresented (i.e., masculine positions). (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  4. Interpretation of Confidence Interval Facing the Conflict

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrade, Luisa; Fernández, Felipe

    2016-01-01

    As literature has reported, it is usual that university students in statistics courses, and even statistics teachers, interpret the confidence level associated with a confidence interval as the probability that the parameter value will be between the lower and upper interval limits. To confront this misconception, class activities have been…

  5. Self-Confidence in the Hospitality Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Oshins

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Few industries rely on self-confidence to the extent that the hospitality industry does because guests must feel welcome and that they are in capable hands. This article examines the results of hundreds of student interviews with industry professionals at all levels to determine where the majority of the hospitality industry gets their self-confidence.

  6. Consumer confidence or the business cycle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Stig Vinther; Nørholm, Henrik; Rangvid, Jesper

    2014-01-01

    Answer: The business cycle. We show that consumer confidence and the output gap both excess returns on stocks in many European countries: When the output gap is positive (the economy is doing well), expected returns are low, and when consumer confidence is high, expected returns are also low...

  7. Financial Literacy, Confidence and Financial Advice Seeking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kramer, Marc M.

    2016-01-01

    We find that people with higher confidence in their own financial literacy are less likely to seek financial advice, but no relation between objective measures of literacy and advice seeking. The negative association between confidence and advice seeking is more pronounced among wealthy households.

  8. Confidence Interval Approximation For Treatment Variance In ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In a random effects model with a single factor, variation is partitioned into two as residual error variance and treatment variance. While a confidence interval can be imposed on the residual error variance, it is not possible to construct an exact confidence interval for the treatment variance. This is because the treatment ...

  9. Aging and Confidence Judgments in Item Recognition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voskuilen, Chelsea; Ratcliff, Roger; McKoon, Gail

    2018-01-01

    We examined the effects of aging on performance in an item-recognition experiment with confidence judgments. A model for confidence judgments and response time (RTs; Ratcliff & Starns, 2013) was used to fit a large amount of data from a new sample of older adults and a previously reported sample of younger adults. This model of confidence…

  10. Organic labbeling systems and consumer confidence

    OpenAIRE

    Sønderskov, Kim Mannemar; Daugbjerg, Carsten

    2009-01-01

    A research analysis suggests that a state certification and labelling system creates confidence in organic labelling systems and consequently green consumerism. Danish consumers have higher levels of confidence in the labelling system than consumers in countries where the state plays a minor role in labelling and certification.

  11. Self-confidence and metacognitive processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kleitman Sabina

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the status of Self-confidence trait. Two studies strongly suggest that Self-confidence is a component of metacognition. In the first study, participants (N=132 were administered measures of Self-concept, a newly devised Memory and Reasoning Competence Inventory (MARCI, and a Verbal Reasoning Test (VRT. The results indicate a significant relationship between confidence ratings on the VRT and the Reasoning component of MARCI. The second study (N=296 employed an extensive battery of cognitive tests and several metacognitive measures. Results indicate the presence of robust Self-confidence and Metacognitive Awareness factors, and a significant correlation between them. Self-confidence taps not only processes linked to performance on items that have correct answers, but also beliefs about events that may never occur.

  12. We will be champions: Leaders' confidence in 'us' inspires team members' team confidence and performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fransen, K; Steffens, N K; Haslam, S A; Vanbeselaere, N; Vande Broek, G; Boen, F

    2016-12-01

    The present research examines the impact of leaders' confidence in their team on the team confidence and performance of their teammates. In an experiment involving newly assembled soccer teams, we manipulated the team confidence expressed by the team leader (high vs neutral vs low) and assessed team members' responses and performance as they unfolded during a competition (i.e., in a first baseline session and a second test session). Our findings pointed to team confidence contagion such that when the leader had expressed high (rather than neutral or low) team confidence, team members perceived their team to be more efficacious and were more confident in the team's ability to win. Moreover, leaders' team confidence affected individual and team performance such that teams led by a highly confident leader performed better than those led by a less confident leader. Finally, the results supported a hypothesized mediational model in showing that the effect of leaders' confidence on team members' team confidence and performance was mediated by the leader's perceived identity leadership and members' team identification. In conclusion, the findings of this experiment suggest that leaders' team confidence can enhance members' team confidence and performance by fostering members' identification with the team. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. Communication confidence in persons with aphasia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babbitt, Edna M; Cherney, Leora R

    2010-01-01

    Communication confidence is a construct that has not been explored in the aphasia literature. Recently, national and international organizations have endorsed broader assessment methods that address quality of life and include participation, activity, and impairment domains as well as psychosocial areas. Individuals with aphasia encounter difficulties in all these areas on a daily basis in living with a communication disorder. Improvements are often reflected in narratives that are not typically included in standard assessments. This article illustrates how a new instrument measuring communication confidence might fit into a broad assessment framework and discusses the interaction of communication confidence, autonomy, and self-determination for individuals living with aphasia.

  14. Confidence building in implementation of geological disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Umeki, Hiroyuki

    2004-01-01

    Long-term safety of the disposal system should be demonstrated to the satisfaction of the stakeholders. Convincing arguments are therefore required that instil in the stakeholders confidence in the safety of a particular concept for the siting and design of a geological disposal, given the uncertainties that inevitably exist in its a priori description and in its evolution. The step-wise approach associated with making safety case at each stage is a key to building confidence in the repository development programme. This paper discusses aspects and issues on confidence building in the implementation of HLW disposal in Japan. (author)

  15. Confidence rating of marine eutrophication assessments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Murray, Ciarán; Andersen, Jesper Harbo; Kaartokallio, Hermanni

    2011-01-01

    of the 'value' of the indicators on which the primary assessment is made. Such secondary assessment of confidence represents a first step towards linking status classification with information regarding their accuracy and precision and ultimately a tool for improving or targeting actions to improve the health......This report presents the development of a methodology for assessing confidence in eutrophication status classifications. The method can be considered as a secondary assessment, supporting the primary assessment of eutrophication status. The confidence assessment is based on a transparent scoring...

  16. Unseen disadvantage: how American universities' focus on independence undermines the academic performance of first-generation college students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephens, Nicole M; Fryberg, Stephanie A; Markus, Hazel Rose; Johnson, Camille S; Covarrubias, Rebecca

    2012-06-01

    American universities increasingly admit first-generation college students whose parents do not have 4-year degrees. Once admitted, these students tend to struggle academically, compared with continuing-generation students--students who have at least 1 parent with a 4-year degree. We propose a cultural mismatch theory that identifies 1 important source of this social class achievement gap. Four studies test the hypothesis that first-generation students underperform because interdependent norms from their mostly working-class backgrounds constitute a mismatch with middle-class independent norms prevalent in universities. First, assessing university cultural norms, surveys of university administrators revealed that American universities focus primarily on norms of independence. Second, identifying the hypothesized cultural mismatch, a longitudinal survey revealed that universities' focus on independence does not match first-generation students' relatively interdependent motives for attending college and that this cultural mismatch is associated with lower grades. Finally, 2 experiments at both private and public universities created a match or mismatch for first-generation students and examined the performance consequences. Together these studies revealed that representing the university culture in terms of independence (i.e., paving one's own paths) rendered academic tasks difficult and, thereby, undermined first-generation students' performance. Conversely, representing the university culture in terms of interdependence (i.e., being part of a community) reduced this sense of difficulty and eliminated the performance gap without adverse consequences for continuing-generation students. These studies address the urgent need to recognize cultural obstacles that contribute to the social class achievement gap and to develop interventions to address them. 2012 APA, all rights reserved

  17. An Exact Confidence Region in Multivariate Calibration

    OpenAIRE

    Mathew, Thomas; Kasala, Subramanyam

    1994-01-01

    In the multivariate calibration problem using a multivariate linear model, an exact confidence region is constructed. It is shown that the region is always nonempty and is invariant under nonsingular transformations.

  18. Weighting Mean and Variability during Confidence Judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Gardelle, Vincent; Mamassian, Pascal

    2015-01-01

    Humans can not only perform some visual tasks with great precision, they can also judge how good they are in these tasks. However, it remains unclear how observers produce such metacognitive evaluations, and how these evaluations might be dissociated from the performance in the visual task. Here, we hypothesized that some stimulus variables could affect confidence judgments above and beyond their impact on performance. In a motion categorization task on moving dots, we manipulated the mean and the variance of the motion directions, to obtain a low-mean low-variance condition and a high-mean high-variance condition with matched performances. Critically, in terms of confidence, observers were not indifferent between these two conditions. Observers exhibited marked preferences, which were heterogeneous across individuals, but stable within each observer when assessed one week later. Thus, confidence and performance are dissociable and observers’ confidence judgments put different weights on the stimulus variables that limit performance. PMID:25793275

  19. Confidence bands for inverse regression models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birke, Melanie; Bissantz, Nicolai; Holzmann, Hajo

    2010-01-01

    We construct uniform confidence bands for the regression function in inverse, homoscedastic regression models with convolution-type operators. Here, the convolution is between two non-periodic functions on the whole real line rather than between two periodic functions on a compact interval, since the former situation arguably arises more often in applications. First, following Bickel and Rosenblatt (1973 Ann. Stat. 1 1071–95) we construct asymptotic confidence bands which are based on strong approximations and on a limit theorem for the supremum of a stationary Gaussian process. Further, we propose bootstrap confidence bands based on the residual bootstrap and prove consistency of the bootstrap procedure. A simulation study shows that the bootstrap confidence bands perform reasonably well for moderate sample sizes. Finally, we apply our method to data from a gel electrophoresis experiment with genetically engineered neuronal receptor subunits incubated with rat brain extract

  20. Financial motivation undermines potential enjoyment in an intensive diet and activity intervention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moller, Arlen C; Buscemi, Joanna; McFadden, H Gene; Hedeker, Donald; Spring, Bonnie

    2014-10-01

    The use of material incentives in healthy lifestyle interventions is becoming widespread. However, self-determination theory (SDT) posits that when material incentives are perceived as controlling, they undermine intrinsic motivation. We analyzed data from the Make Better Choices trial-a trial testing strategies for improving four risk behaviors: low fruit-vegetable intake, high saturated fat intake, low physical activity, and high sedentary activity. At baseline, participants reported the degree to which financial incentives were an important motivator (financial motivation); self-reported enjoyment of each behavior was assessed before and after the 3-week incentivization phase. Consistent with SDT, after controlling for general motivation and group assignment, lower financial motivation predicted more adaptive changes in enjoyment. Whereas participants low in financial motivation experienced adaptive changes, adaptive changes were suppressed among those high in financial motivation.

  1. Financial motivation undermines potential enjoyment in an intensive diet and activity intervention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moller, Arlen C.; Buscemi, Joanna; McFadden, H. Gene; Hedeker, Donald; Spring, Bonnie

    2013-01-01

    The use of material incentives in healthy lifestyle interventions is becoming widespread. However, self-determination theory (SDT) posits that when material incentives are perceived as controlling, they undermine intrinsic motivation. We analyzed data from the Make Better Choices trial—a trial testing strategies for improving four risk behaviors: low fruit–vegetable intake, high saturated fat intake, low physical activity, and high sedentary activity. At baseline, participants reported the degree to which financial incentives were an important motivator (financial motivation); self-reported enjoyment of each behavior was assessed before and after the 3-week incentivization phase. Consistent with SDT, after controlling for general motivation and group assignment, lower financial motivation predicted more adaptive changes in enjoyment. Whereas participants low in financial motivation experienced adaptive changes, adaptive changes were suppressed among those high in financial motivation. PMID:24142187

  2. When does familiarity promote versus undermine interpersonal attraction? A proposed integrative model from erstwhile adversaries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finkel, Eli J; Norton, Michael I; Reis, Harry T; Ariely, Dan; Caprariello, Peter A; Eastwick, Paul W; Frost, Jeana H; Maniaci, Michael R

    2015-01-01

    This article began as an adversarial collaboration between two groups of researchers with competing views on a longstanding question: Does familiarity promote or undermine interpersonal attraction? As we explored our respective positions, it became clear that the limitations of our conceptualizations of the familiarity-attraction link, as well as the limitations of prior research, were masking a set of higher order principles capable of integrating these diverse conceptualizations. This realization led us to adopt a broader perspective, which focuses on three distinct relationship stages-awareness, surface contact, and mutuality-and suggests that the influence of familiarity on attraction depends on both the nature and the stage of the relationship between perceivers and targets. This article introduces the framework that emerged from our discussions and suggests directions for research to investigate its validity. © The Author(s) 2014.

  3. Do Reputation Systems Undermine Trust? Divergent Effects of Enforcement Type on Generalized Trust and Trustworthiness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuwabara, Ko

    2015-03-01

    Research shows that enforcing cooperation using contracts or tangible sanctions can backfire, undermining people's intrinsic motivation to cooperate: when the enforcement is removed, people are less trusting or trustworthy than when there is no enforcement to begin with. The author examines whether reputation systems have similar consequences for generalized trust and trustworthiness. Using a web-based experiment simulating online market transactions (studies 1 and 2), he shows that reputation systems can reinforce generalized trust and trustworthiness, unlike contractual enforcement or relational enforcement based on repeated interactions. In a survey experiment (study 3), he finds that recalling their eBay feedback scores made participants more trusting and trustworthy. These results are predicated on the diffuse nature of reputational enforcement to reinforce perceptions of trust and trustworthiness. These results have implications for understanding how different forms of governance affect generalized trust and trustworthiness.

  4. Distinguishing highly confident accurate and inaccurate memory: insights about relevant and irrelevant influences on memory confidence

    OpenAIRE

    Chua, Elizabeth F.; Hannula, Deborah E.; Ranganath, Charan

    2012-01-01

    It is generally believed that accuracy and confidence in one’s memory are related, but there are many instances when they diverge. Accordingly, it is important to disentangle the factors which contribute to memory accuracy and confidence, especially those factors that contribute to confidence, but not accuracy. We used eye movements to separately measure fluent cue processing, the target recognition experience, and relative evidence assessment on recognition confidence and accuracy. Eye movem...

  5. Confidence in leadership among the newly qualified.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayliss-Pratt, Lisa; Morley, Mary; Bagley, Liz; Alderson, Steven

    2013-10-23

    The Francis report highlighted the importance of strong leadership from health professionals but it is unclear how prepared those who are newly qualified feel to take on a leadership role. We aimed to assess the confidence of newly qualified health professionals working in the West Midlands in the different competencies of the NHS Leadership Framework. Most respondents felt confident in their abilities to demonstrate personal qualities and work with others, but less so at managing or improving services or setting direction.

  6. [Sources of leader's confidence in organizations].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ikeda, Hiroshi; Furukawa, Hisataka

    2006-04-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the sources of confidence that organization leaders had. As potential sources of the confidence, we focused on fulfillment of expectations made by self and others, reflection on good as well as bad job experiences, and awareness of job experiences in terms of commonality, differentiation, and multiple viewpoints. A questionnaire was administered to 170 managers of Japanese companies. Results were as follows: First, confidence in leaders was more strongly related to fulfillment of expectations made by self and others than reflection on and awareness of job experiences. Second, the confidence was weakly related to internal processing of job experiences, in the form of commonality awareness and reflection on good job experiences. And finally, years of managerial experiences had almost no relation to the confidence. These findings suggested that confidence in leaders was directly acquired from fulfillment of expectations made by self and others, rather than indirectly through internal processing of job experiences. Implications of the findings for leadership training were also discussed.

  7. Increasing Product Confidence-Shifting Paradigms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Marla; Kashyap, Vishal; Cheung, Mee-Shew

    2015-01-01

    Leaders in the pharmaceutical, medical device, and food industries expressed a unilateral concern over product confidence throughout the total product lifecycle, an unsettling fact for these leaders to manage given that their products affect the lives of millions of people each year. Fueled by the heparin incident of intentional adulteration in 2008, initial efforts for increasing product confidence were focused on improving the confidence of incoming materials, with a belief that supplier performance must be the root cause. As in the heparin case, concern over supplier performance extended deep into the supply chain to include suppliers of the suppliers-which is often a blind spot for pharmaceutical, device, and food manufacturers. Resolved to address the perceived lack of supplier performance, these U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-regulated industries began to adopt the supplier relationship management strategy, developed by the automotive industry, that emphasizes "management" of suppliers for the betterment of the manufacturers. Current product and supplier management strategies, however, have not led to a significant improvement in product confidence. As a result of the enduring concern by industry leaders over the lack of product confidence, Xavier University launched the Integrity of Supply Initiative in 2012 with a team of industry leaders and FDA officials. Through a methodical research approach, data generated by the pharmaceutical, medical device, and food manufacturers surprisingly pointed to themselves as a source of the lack of product confidence, and revealed that manufacturers either unknowingly increase the potential for error or can control/prevent many aspects of product confidence failure. It is only through this paradigm shift that manufacturers can work collaboratively with their suppliers as equal partners, instead of viewing their suppliers as "lesser" entities needing to be controlled. The basis of this shift provides manufacturers

  8. Confidence-building and Canadian leadership

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cleminson, F.R. [Dept. of Foreign Affairs and International Trade, Verification, Non-Proliferation, Arms Control and Disarmament Div (IDA), Ottawa, Ontario (Canada)

    1998-07-01

    Confidence-building has come into its own as a 'tool of choice' in facilitating the non-proliferation, arms control and disarmament (NACD) agenda, whether regional or global. From the Middle East Peace Process (MEPP) to the ASEAN Intersessional Group on Confidence-Building (ARF ISG on CBMS), confidence-building has assumed a central profile in regional terms. In the Four Power Talks begun in Geneva on December 9, 1997, the United States identified confidence-building as one of two subject areas for initial discussion as part of a structured peace process between North and South Korea. Thus, with CBMs assuming such a high profile internationally, it seems prudent for Canadians to pause and take stock of the significant role which Canada has already played in the conceptual development of the process over the last two decades. Since the Helsinki accords of 1975, Canada has developed a significant expertise in this area through an unbroken series of original, basic research projects. These have contributed to defining the process internationally from concept to implementation. Today, these studies represent a solid and unique Departmental investment in basic research from which to draw in meeting Canada's current commitments to multilateral initiatives in the area of confidence-building and to provide a 'step up' in terms of future-oriented leadership. (author)

  9. Confidence Leak in Perceptual Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahnev, Dobromir; Koizumi, Ai; McCurdy, Li Yan; D'Esposito, Mark; Lau, Hakwan

    2015-11-01

    People live in a continuous environment in which the visual scene changes on a slow timescale. It has been shown that to exploit such environmental stability, the brain creates a continuity field in which objects seen seconds ago influence the perception of current objects. What is unknown is whether a similar mechanism exists at the level of metacognitive representations. In three experiments, we demonstrated a robust intertask confidence leak-that is, confidence in one's response on a given task or trial influencing confidence on the following task or trial. This confidence leak could not be explained by response priming or attentional fluctuations. Better ability to modulate confidence leak predicted higher capacity for metacognition as well as greater gray matter volume in the prefrontal cortex. A model based on normative principles from Bayesian inference explained the results by postulating that observers subjectively estimate the perceptual signal strength in a stable environment. These results point to the existence of a novel metacognitive mechanism mediated by regions in the prefrontal cortex. © The Author(s) 2015.

  10. ADAM SMITH: THE INVISIBLE HAND OR CONFIDENCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Luis, Gache

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In 1776 Adam Smith raised the matter that an invisible hand was the one which moved the markets to obtain its efficiency. Despite in the present paper we are going to raise the hypothesis, that this invisible hand is in fact the confidence that each person feels when he is going to do business. That in addition it is unique, because it is different from the confidence of the others and that is a variable nonlinear that essentially is ligatured to respective personal histories. For that we are going to take as its bases the paper by Leopoldo Abadía (2009, with respect to the financial economy crisis that happened in 2007-2008, to evidence the form in which confidence operates. Therefore the contribution that we hope to do with this paper is to emphasize that, the level of confidence of the different actors, is the one which really moves the markets, (therefore the economy and that the crisis of the subprime mortgages is a confidence crisis at world-wide level.

  11. Confidence-building and Canadian leadership

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cleminson, F.R.

    1998-01-01

    Confidence-building has come into its own as a 'tool of choice' in facilitating the non-proliferation, arms control and disarmament (NACD) agenda, whether regional or global. From the Middle East Peace Process (MEPP) to the ASEAN Intersessional Group on Confidence-Building (ARF ISG on CBMS), confidence-building has assumed a central profile in regional terms. In the Four Power Talks begun in Geneva on December 9, 1997, the United States identified confidence-building as one of two subject areas for initial discussion as part of a structured peace process between North and South Korea. Thus, with CBMs assuming such a high profile internationally, it seems prudent for Canadians to pause and take stock of the significant role which Canada has already played in the conceptual development of the process over the last two decades. Since the Helsinki accords of 1975, Canada has developed a significant expertise in this area through an unbroken series of original, basic research projects. These have contributed to defining the process internationally from concept to implementation. Today, these studies represent a solid and unique Departmental investment in basic research from which to draw in meeting Canada's current commitments to multilateral initiatives in the area of confidence-building and to provide a 'step up' in terms of future-oriented leadership. (author)

  12. High confidence in falsely recognizing prototypical faces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sampaio, Cristina; Reinke, Victoria; Mathews, Jeffrey; Swart, Alexandra; Wallinger, Stephen

    2018-06-01

    We applied a metacognitive approach to investigate confidence in recognition of prototypical faces. Participants were presented with sets of faces constructed digitally as deviations from prototype/base faces. Participants were then tested with a simple recognition task (Experiment 1) or a multiple-choice task (Experiment 2) for old and new items plus new prototypes, and they showed a high rate of confident false alarms to the prototypes. Confidence and accuracy relationship in this face recognition paradigm was found to be positive for standard items but negative for the prototypes; thus, it was contingent on the nature of the items used. The data have implications for lineups that employ match-to-suspect strategies.

  13. A systematic review of maternal confidence for physiologic birth: characteristics of prenatal care and confidence measurement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avery, Melissa D; Saftner, Melissa A; Larson, Bridget; Weinfurter, Elizabeth V

    2014-01-01

    Because a focus on physiologic labor and birth has reemerged in recent years, care providers have the opportunity in the prenatal period to help women increase confidence in their ability to give birth without unnecessary interventions. However, most research has only examined support for women during labor. The purpose of this systematic review was to examine the research literature for information about prenatal care approaches that increase women's confidence for physiologic labor and birth and tools to measure that confidence. Studies were reviewed that explored any element of a pregnant woman's interaction with her prenatal care provider that helped build confidence in her ability to labor and give birth. Timing of interaction with pregnant women included during pregnancy, labor and birth, and the postpartum period. In addition, we looked for studies that developed a measure of women's confidence related to labor and birth. Outcome measures included confidence or similar concepts, descriptions of components of prenatal care contributing to maternal confidence for birth, and reliability and validity of tools measuring confidence. The search of MEDLINE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, and Scopus databases provided a total of 893 citations. After removing duplicates and articles that did not meet inclusion criteria, 6 articles were included in the review. Three relate to women's confidence for labor during the prenatal period, and 3 describe tools to measure women's confidence for birth. Research about enhancing women's confidence for labor and birth was limited to qualitative studies. Results suggest that women desire information during pregnancy and want to use that information to participate in care decisions in a relationship with a trusted provider. Further research is needed to develop interventions to help midwives and physicians enhance women's confidence in their ability to give birth and to develop a tool to measure confidence for use during prenatal care. © 2014 by

  14. An Introduction to Confidence Intervals for Both Statistical Estimates and Effect Sizes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capraro, Mary Margaret

    This paper summarizes methods of estimating confidence intervals, including classical intervals and intervals for effect sizes. The recent American Psychological Association (APA) Task Force on Statistical Inference report suggested that confidence intervals should always be reported, and the fifth edition of the APA "Publication Manual"…

  15. Confidence building - is science the only approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bragg, K.

    1990-01-01

    The Atomic Energy Control Board (AECB) has begun to develop some simplified methods to determine if it is possible to provide confidence that dose, risk and environmental criteria can be respected without undue reliance on detailed scientific models. The progress to date will be outlined and the merits of this new approach will be compared to the more complex, traditional approach. Stress will be given to generating confidence in both technical and non-technical communities as well as the need to enhance communication between them. 3 refs., 1 tab

  16. Self Confidence Spillovers and Motivated Beliefs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Banerjee, Ritwik; Gupta, Nabanita Datta; Villeval, Marie Claire

    that success when competing in a task increases the performers’ self-confidence and competitiveness in the subsequent task. We also find that such spillovers affect the self-confidence of low-status individuals more than that of high-status individuals. Receiving good news under Affirmative Action, however......Is success in a task used strategically by individuals to motivate their beliefs prior to taking action in a subsequent, unrelated, task? Also, is the distortion of beliefs reinforced for individuals who have lower status in society? Conducting an artefactual field experiment in India, we show...

  17. Power and confidence in professions: lessons for occupational therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Florence A

    2010-12-01

    Powerful professions have the capacity to obtain leadership positions, advocate successfully in the policy arena, and secure the resources necessary to achieve their professional goals. Within the occupational therapy profession, cultivating power and confidence among our practitioners is essential to realize our full capacity for meeting society's occupational needs. Drawing from a historical analysis of the medical and nursing professions, this paper discusses the implications of power and disempowerment among health professions for their practitioners, clients, and public image. Theoretical perspectives on power from social psychology, politics, organizational management, and post-structuralism are introduced and their relevance to the profession of occupational therapy is examined. The paper concludes with recommendations for occupational therapy practitioners to analyze their individual sources of power and evaluate opportunities to develop confidence and secure power for their professional work--in venues both in and outside the workplace.

  18. Radioactive waste and civil society: Toward confidence and efficiency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferte, Jacques de la

    2001-01-01

    Radioactive waste management is a typical area where a confident and efficient relationship between decision makers and civil society is required to achieve progress. The Radioactive waste management community must now learn the lessons and borrow from the good and bad experiences of government and industry in the area of good governance. Key ingredients include not only good science and technology, but also an early association of stakeholders with the waste management development process, so as to care for social values and generate confidence in the public, notably at the local level. The new NEA Forum will now organise its future work around this concept, collecting and sharing the experience among its members, and working together in an on-going multi-year programme

  19. Principles of psychological confidence of NPP operators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alpeev, A.S.

    1994-01-01

    The problems of operator interaction with subsystems supporting his activity are discussed from the point of view of formation of his psychological confidence on the basis of the automation intellectual means capabilities. The functions of operator activity supporting subsystems, which realization will provide to decrease greatly the portion of accidents at NPPs connected with mistakes in operator actions, are derived. 6 refs

  20. Growing confidence, building skills | IDRC - International ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    In 2012 Rashid explored the influence of think tanks on policy in Bangladesh, as well as their relationships with international donors and media. In 2014, he explored two-way student exchanges between Canadian and ... his IDRC experience “gave me the confidence to conduct high quality research in social sciences.”.

  1. Detecting Disease in Radiographs with Intuitive Confidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Jaeger

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper argues in favor of a specific type of confidence for use in computer-aided diagnosis and disease classification, namely, sine/cosine values of angles represented by points on the unit circle. The paper shows how this confidence is motivated by Chinese medicine and how sine/cosine values are directly related with the two forces Yin and Yang. The angle for which sine and cosine are equal (45° represents the state of equilibrium between Yin and Yang, which is a state of nonduality that indicates neither normality nor abnormality in terms of disease classification. The paper claims that the proposed confidence is intuitive and can be readily understood by physicians. The paper underpins this thesis with theoretical results in neural signal processing, stating that a sine/cosine relationship between the actual input signal and the perceived (learned input is key to neural learning processes. As a practical example, the paper shows how to use the proposed confidence values to highlight manifestations of tuberculosis in frontal chest X-rays.

  2. Current Developments in Measuring Academic Behavioural Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sander, Paul

    2009-01-01

    Using published findings and by further analyses of existing data, the structure, validity and utility of the Academic Behavioural Confidence scale (ABC) is critically considered. Validity is primarily assessed through the scale's relationship with other existing scales as well as by looking for predicted differences. The utility of the ABC scale…

  3. Coefficient Omega Bootstrap Confidence Intervals: Nonnormal Distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padilla, Miguel A.; Divers, Jasmin

    2013-01-01

    The performance of the normal theory bootstrap (NTB), the percentile bootstrap (PB), and the bias-corrected and accelerated (BCa) bootstrap confidence intervals (CIs) for coefficient omega was assessed through a Monte Carlo simulation under conditions not previously investigated. Of particular interests were nonnormal Likert-type and binary items.…

  4. Evaluating Measures of Optimism and Sport Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fogarty, Gerard J.; Perera, Harsha N.; Furst, Andrea J.; Thomas, Patrick R.

    2016-01-01

    The psychometric properties of the Life Orientation Test-Revised (LOT-R), the Sport Confidence Inventory (SCI), and the Carolina SCI (CSCI) were examined in a study involving 260 athletes. The study aimed to test the dimensional structure, convergent and divergent validity, and invariance over competition level of scores generated by these…

  5. Distinguishing highly confident accurate and inaccurate memory: insights about relevant and irrelevant influences on memory confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chua, Elizabeth F; Hannula, Deborah E; Ranganath, Charan

    2012-01-01

    It is generally believed that accuracy and confidence in one's memory are related, but there are many instances when they diverge. Accordingly it is important to disentangle the factors that contribute to memory accuracy and confidence, especially those factors that contribute to confidence, but not accuracy. We used eye movements to separately measure fluent cue processing, the target recognition experience, and relative evidence assessment on recognition confidence and accuracy. Eye movements were monitored during a face-scene associative recognition task, in which participants first saw a scene cue, followed by a forced-choice recognition test for the associated face, with confidence ratings. Eye movement indices of the target recognition experience were largely indicative of accuracy, and showed a relationship to confidence for accurate decisions. In contrast, eye movements during the scene cue raised the possibility that more fluent cue processing was related to higher confidence for both accurate and inaccurate recognition decisions. In a second experiment we manipulated cue familiarity, and therefore cue fluency. Participants showed higher confidence for cue-target associations for when the cue was more familiar, especially for incorrect responses. These results suggest that over-reliance on cue familiarity and under-reliance on the target recognition experience may lead to erroneous confidence.

  6. Negative reactions to monitoring: Do they undermine the ability of monitoring to protect adolescents?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laird, Robert D; Zeringue, Megan M; Lambert, Emily S

    2018-02-01

    This study focused on adolescents' negative reactions to parental monitoring to determine whether parents should avoid excessive monitoring because adolescents find monitoring behaviors to be over-controlling and privacy invasive. Adolescents (n = 242, M age = 15.4 years; 51% female) reported monitoring, negative reactions, warmth, antisocial behavior, depressive symptoms, and disclosure. Adolescents additionally reported antisocial behavior, depressive symptoms, and disclosure one to two years later. In cross-sectional analyses, less monitoring but more negative reactions were linked with less disclosure, suggesting that negative reactions can undermine parents' ability to obtain information. Although monitoring behaviors were not related to depressive symptoms, more negative reactions were linked with more depressive symptoms, suggesting that negative reactions also may increase depressive symptoms as a side effect of monitoring behavior. Negative reactions were not linked to antisocial behavior. There were no longitudinal links between negative reactions and changes in disclosure, antisocial behavior, or depressive symptoms. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  7. Being trusted: How team generational age diversity promotes and undermines trust in cross-boundary relationships.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Michele

    2016-04-01

    We examine how demographic context influences the trust that boundary spanners experience in their dyadic relationships with clients. Because of the salience of age as a demographic characteristic as well as the increasing prevalence of age diversity and intergenerational conflict in the workplace, we focus on team age diversity as a demographic social context that affects trust between boundary spanners and their clients. Using social categorization theory and theories of social capital, we develop and test our contextual argument that a boundary spanner's experience of being trusted is influenced by the social categorization processes that occur in dyadic interactions with a specific client and, simultaneously, by similar social categorization processes that influence the degree to which the client team as a whole serves as a cooperative resource for demographically similar versus dissimilar boundary spanner-client dyads. Using a sample of 168 senior boundary spanners from the consulting industry, we find that generational diversity among client team members from a client organization undermines the perception of being trusted within homogeneous boundary spanner-client dyads while it enhances the perception of being trusted within heterogeneous dyads. The perception of being trusted is an important aspect of cross-boundary relationships because it influences coordination and the costs associated with coordination. © 2015 The Author Journal of Organizational Behavior Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Cultivating the Under-Mined: Cross-Case Analysis as Knowledge Mobilization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samia Khan

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Despite a plethora of case studies in the social sciences, it is the authors' opinion that case studies remain relatively under-mined sources of expertise. Cross-case analysis is a research method that can mobilize knowledge from individual case studies. The authors propose that mobilization of case knowledge occurs when researchers accumulate case knowledge, compare and contrast cases, and in doing so, produce new knowledge. In this article, the authors present theories of how people can learn from sets of cases. Second, existing techniques for cross-case analysis are discussed. Third, considerations that enable researchers to engage in cross-case analysis are suggested. Finally, the authors introduce a novel online database: the Foresee (4C database. The purpose of the database is to mobilize case knowledge by helping researchers perform cross-case analysis and by creating an online research community that facilitates dialogue and the mobilization of case knowledge. The design of the 4C database is informed by theories of how people learn from case studies and cross-case analysis techniques. We present evidence from case study research that use of the 4C database helps to mobilize previously dormant case study knowledge to foster greater expertise. URN: urn:nbn:de:0114-fqs0801348

  9. Betterment, undermining, support and distortion: A heuristic model for the analysis of pressure on evaluators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pleger, Lyn; Sager, Fritz

    2016-09-18

    Evaluations can only serve as a neutral evidence base for policy decision-making as long as they have not been altered along non-scientific criteria. Studies show that evaluators are repeatedly put under pressure to deliver results in line with given expectations. The study of pressure and influence to misrepresent findings is hence an important research strand for the development of evaluation praxis. A conceptual challenge in the area of evaluation ethics research is the fact that pressure can be not only negative, but also positive. We develop a heuristic model of influence on evaluations that does justice to this ambivalence of influence: the BUSD-model (betterment, undermining, support, distortion). The model is based on the distinction of two dimensions, namely 'explicitness of pressure' and 'direction of influence'. We demonstrate how the model can be applied to understand pressure and offer a practical tool to distinguish positive from negative influence in the form of three so-called differentiators (awareness, accordance, intention). The differentiators comprise a practical component by assisting evaluators who are confronted with influence. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Failing the vulnerable: Three new consent norms that will undermine health research with children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ann Strode

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The South African National Health Act (No. 61 of 2003 provides a legal framework for the regulation of the health system across the country. Within the Act, section 71 introduces a number of legal norms relating to research or experimentation with human subjects, including research on HIV prevention and treatment. These norms have been criticised for the negative impact they will have on research involving children. This article describes three of the new consent requirements in section 71 of the Act. It shows, using a range of case studies, how important HIV-related research will be halted or undermined if the current provisions are implemented. The article argues that the new consent requirements are out of step with other statutory provisions and ethical guidelines, and as a result they will exclude a large population group – children in diverse settings – from much-needed evidence-based healthcare interventions. The article concludes with a clarion call for support of advocacy on this issue with the Minister of Health and the Health Portfolio Committee.

  11. How Drug Control Policy and Practice Undermine Access to Controlled Medicines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burke-Shyne, Naomi; Csete, Joanne; Wilson, Duncan; Fox, Edward; Wolfe, Daniel; Rasanathan, Jennifer J K

    2017-06-01

    Drug conventions serve as the cornerstone for domestic drug laws and impose a dual obligation upon states to prevent the misuse of controlled substances while ensuring their adequate availability for medical and scientific purposes. Despite the mandate that these obligations be enforced equally, the dominant paradigm enshrined in the drug conventions is an enforcement-heavy criminal justice response to controlled substances that prohibits and penalizes their misuse. Prioritizing restrictive control is to the detriment of ensuring adequate availability of and access to controlled medicines, thereby violating the rights of people who need them. This paper argues that the drug conventions' prioritization of criminal justice measures-including efforts to prevent non-medical use of controlled substances-undermines access to medicines and infringes upon the right to health and the right to enjoy the benefits of scientific progress. While the effects of criminalization under drug policy limit the right to health in multiple ways, we draw on research and documented examples to highlight the impact of drug control and criminalization on access to medicines. The prioritization and protection of human rights-specifically the right to health and the right to enjoy the benefits of scientific progress-are critical to rebalancing drug policy.

  12. International-local remuneration differences across six countries: do they undermine poverty reduction work?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carr, Stuart C; McWha, Ishbel; Maclachlan, Malcolm; Furnham, Adrian

    2010-10-01

    Despite the rhetoric of a single global economy, professionals in poorer countries continue to be remunerated differently depending on whether they are compensated at a local vs. international rate. Project ADDUP (Are Development Discrepancies Undermining Performance?) surveyed 1290 expatriate and local professionals (response rate = 47%) from aid, education, government, and business sectors in (1) Island Nations (Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands), (2) landlocked economies (Malaŵi, Uganda), and (3) emerging economies (India, China). Difference in pay was estimated using purchasing power parity, from the World Bank's World Development Indicators 2007. Psychological measures included self-reported pay and benefits (remuneration), self-attributed ability, remuneration comparison, sense of justice in remuneration, remuneration-related motivation, thoughts of turnover and thoughts about international mobility. We included control measures of candour, culture shock, cultural values (horizontal/vertical individualism/collectivism), personality (from the "big five"), job satisfaction and work engagement. Controlling for these and country (small effects) and organization effects (medium), (a) pay ratios between international and local workers exceeded what were perceived to be acceptable pay thresholds among respondents remunerated locally; who also reported a combination of a sense of relative (b) injustice and demotivation; which (c) together with job satisfaction/work engagement predicted turnover and international mobility. These findings question the wisdom of dual salary systems in general, expose and challenge a major contradiction between contemporary development policy and practice, and have a range of practical, organizational, and theoretical implications for poverty reduction work.

  13. Benevolent Sexism and Support of Romantic Partner's Goals: Undermining Women's Competence While Fulfilling Men's Intimacy Needs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammond, Matthew D; Overall, Nickola C

    2015-09-01

    The current research demonstrates how benevolent sexism functions to undermine women's competence while facilitating men's access to heterosexual intimacy by prompting different support behaviors by men and women. Objective coders rated the support provision exhibited during heterosexual couples' (N = 100) video-recorded discussions of each other's personal goals. Men who endorsed benevolent sexism provided more dependency-oriented support, including directly providing plans and solutions and neglecting the recipient's own abilities, which led to their female partners feeling less competent and less positively regarded. In contrast, women who endorsed benevolent sexism provided greater relationship-oriented support, characterized by affection and emphasizing the positive relationship outcomes associated with their partner's goals, which led their male partners to perceive greater regard and intimacy in their relationship. This study is the first to investigate how benevolent sexism prompts naturalistic support behaviors that can impede women's capacity for independent success while supporting the fulfillment of men's intimacy needs. © 2015 by the Society for Personality and Social Psychology, Inc.

  14. Facilitating or undermining? The effect of reward on food acceptance. A narrative review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooke, Lucy J; Chambers, Lucy C; Añez, Elizabeth V; Wardle, Jane

    2011-10-01

    Using rewards in child feeding is commonplace and viewed as effective by parents, although some express concern about using 'bribery'. Psychological and economic theorists emphasize the beneficial effects of rewards in enhancing performance, although, there is evidence that the offer of rewards undermines intrinsic motivation and decreases enjoyment of the rewarded task. In the food domain, results have been mixed, but this may be explained, at least partly in terms of the measured outcome (liking vs intake) and the initial level of motivation towards the target foods (liked vs disliked). Where intake is the outcome, rewards have had broadly positive effects, but when it is liking, rewards can have negative effects if the target food is already liked. Another issue concerns the type of reward offered. While offering food as a reward appear to be universally negative, there is evidence to suggest that non-food tangible rewards (e.g., stickers), or non-tangible rewards (praise) can be highly effective in encouraging children to taste new or less liked foods sufficiently often to benefit from the 'mere exposure' effect. We suggest that the judicious use of rewards may facilitate children's acceptance of healthy foods. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Sleep restriction undermines cardiovascular adaptation during stress, contingent on emotional stability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lü, Wei; Hughes, Brian M; Howard, Siobhán; James, Jack E

    2018-02-01

    Sleep loss is associated with increased cardiovascular disease, but physiological mechanisms accounting for this relationship are largely unknown. One possible mechanism is that sleep restriction exerts effects on cardiovascular stress responses, and that these effects vary between individuals. Emotional stability (ES) is a personality trait pertinent to sleep restriction and stress responding. However, no study to date has explored how ES and sleep-restriction interactively affect cardiovascular stress responses or processes of adaptation during stress. The present study sought to investigate the association between ES and impact of sleep restriction on cardiovascular function during stress, with particular regard to the trajectory of cardiovascular function change across time. Ninety female university students completed a laboratory vigilance stress task while undergoing continuous cardiovascular (SBP, DBP, HR, SV, CO, TPR) monitoring, after either a night of partial sleep restriction (40% of habitual sleep duration) or a full night's rest. Individuals high in ES showed stable and adaptive cardiovascular (SBP, SV, CO) responses throughout stress exposure, regardless of sleep. In contrast, individuals low in ES exhibited cardiovascular adaptation during stress exposure while rested, but disrupted adaption while sleep-restricted. These findings suggest that sleep-restriction undermines healthful cardiovascular adaptation to stress for individuals low in ES. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. African Trypanosomes Undermine Humoral Responses and Vaccine Development: Link with Inflammatory Responses?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benoit Stijlemans

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available African trypanosomosis is a debilitating disease of great medical and socioeconomical importance. It is caused by strictly extracellular protozoan parasites capable of infecting all vertebrate classes including human, livestock, and game animals. To survive within their mammalian host, trypanosomes have evolved efficient immune escape mechanisms and manipulate the entire host immune response, including the humoral response. This report provides an overview of how trypanosomes initially trigger and subsequently undermine the development of an effective host antibody response. Indeed, results available to date obtained in both natural and experimental infection models show that trypanosomes impair homeostatic B-cell lymphopoiesis, B-cell maturation and survival and B-cell memory development. Data on B-cell dysfunctioning in correlation with parasite virulence and trypanosome-mediated inflammation will be discussed, as well as the impact of trypanosomosis on heterologous vaccine efficacy and diagnosis. Therefore, new strategies aiming at enhancing vaccination efficacy could benefit from a combination of (i early parasite diagnosis, (ii anti-trypanosome (drugs treatment, and (iii anti-inflammatory treatment that collectively might allow B-cell recovery and improve vaccination.

  17. Establishing and communicating confidence in the safety of deep geologic disposal. Approaches and arguments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    Confidence among both technical experts and the public in the safety of deep geologic repositories for radioactive waste is a key element in the successful development of the repositories. This report presents the approaches and arguments that are currently used in OECD countries to establish and communicate confidence in their safety. It evaluates the state of the art for obtaining, presenting and demonstrating confidence in long-term safety, and makes recommendations on future directions and initiatives to be taken for improving confidence. (author)

  18. Tables of Confidence Limits for Proportions

    Science.gov (United States)

    1990-09-01

    0.972 180 49 0.319 0.332 0,357 175 165 0.964 0.969 0.976 ISO 50 0.325 0.338 0.363 175 166 0.969 0.973 0.980 180 51 0.331 0.344 0.368 175 167 0.973 0.977...0.528 180 18 0.135 0 145 0.164 180 19 0.141 0.151 0.171 ISO 80 0.495 0,508 0.534 347 UPPER CONFIDENCE LIMIT FOR PROPORTIONS CONFIDENCE LEVEL...500 409 0.8401 0.8459 0.8565 500 355 0.7364 0.7434 0.7564 500 356 0.7383 0.7453 0.7582 500 410 0.8420 0.8478 0 8583 500 357 0.7402 0.7472 0.7602 500

  19. Confidence, Visual Research, and the Aesthetic Function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stan Ruecker

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available The goal of this article is to identify and describe one of the primary purposes of aesthetic quality in the design of computer interfaces and visualization tools. We suggest that humanists can derive advantages in visual research by acknowledging by their efforts to advance aesthetic quality that a significant function of aesthetics in this context is to inspire the user’s confidence. This confidence typically serves to create a sense of trust in the provider of the interface or tool. In turn, this increased trust may result in an increased willingness to engage with the object, on the basis that it demonstrates an attention to detail that promises to reward increased engagement. In addition to confidence, the aesthetic may also contribute to a heightened degree of satisfaction with having spent time using or investigating the object. In the realm of interface design and visualization research, we propose that these aesthetic functions have implications not only for the quality of interactions, but also for the results of the standard measures of performance and preference.

  20. Confidence-Based Learning in Investment Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serradell-Lopez, Enric; Lara-Navarra, Pablo; Castillo-Merino, David; González-González, Inés

    The aim of this study is to determine the effectiveness of using multiple choice tests in subjects related to the administration and business management. To this end we used a multiple-choice test with specific questions to verify the extent of knowledge gained and the confidence and trust in the answers. The tests were performed in a group of 200 students at the bachelor's degree in Business Administration and Management. The analysis made have been implemented in one subject of the scope of investment analysis and measured the level of knowledge gained and the degree of trust and security in the responses at two different times of the course. The measurements have been taken into account different levels of difficulty in the questions asked and the time spent by students to complete the test. The results confirm that students are generally able to obtain more knowledge along the way and get increases in the degree of trust and confidence in the answers. It is confirmed as the difficulty level of the questions set a priori by the heads of the subjects are related to levels of security and confidence in the answers. It is estimated that the improvement in the skills learned is viewed favourably by businesses and are especially important for job placement of students.

  1. Risk undermined in the bilateral pharmaceutical regulatory system in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hui-Po; Wang, Chun-Li

    2018-04-01

    The concept of Pharmacovigilance Planning and Risk Minimization Planning (PVP/RMP), initiated by the International Conference on Harmonization (ICH), addressed an important conceptual change from monitoring the safety of individual medicine to proactively conducting risk prevention for the minimization of medication error. However, the implementation of PVP/RMP is a challenge in societies like Taiwan where irrational medication and co-medication is prevalent. It is even more difficult in Taiwan where two regulatory bodies are governing pharmaceutical affairs, namely Taiwan Food and Drug Administration (TFDA) in charge of Western Medicine (WM) and the Department of Chinese Medicine and Pharmacy (DCMP) in charge of Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM). There are thus dual-tract drug approval panels, two GMP controls and two independent adverse drug event reporting systems. This rendered irrational co-medication of WM and TCM undetectable and the standard tools for monitoring pharmacovigilance inapplicable. The bilateral regulatory system is conceptually unscientific in accordance with PVP/RMP and unethical from humanity point of view. The first part of this review delivers (1) social aspects of polypharmacy in Taiwan; (2) regulatory aspects of pharmaceutical administration; (3) risks undermined in the bilateral regulatory system and (4) pharmacoepidemiology in relation to the risk of polypharmacy. As evidence-based medicine (EBM) forms the fundamental risk-benefit assessment on medication, the second part of this review delivers (1) the scientific aspects of the beauty and the odds of biological system that governs host-xenobiotics interaction; (2) conceptual evolution from product management (pharmacovigilance) to risk management (PVP/RMP); (3) non-biased due process is essential for risk-benefit assessment on medicinal products and (4) the opinion of the authors on system building for safe medication. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  2. Depth-dependent effects of culling-do mesophotic lionfish populations undermine current management?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andradi-Brown, Dominic A; Grey, Rachel; Hendrix, Alicia; Hitchner, Drew; Hunt, Christina L; Gress, Erika; Madej, Konrad; Parry, Rachel L; Régnier-McKellar, Catriona; Jones, Owen P; Arteaga, María; Izaguirre, Andrea P; Rogers, Alex D; Exton, Dan A

    2017-05-01

    Invasive lionfish ( Pterois volitans and P. miles ) have spread widely across the western Atlantic and are recognized as a major threat to native marine biodiversity. Although lionfish inhabit both shallow reefs and mesophotic coral ecosystems (MCEs; reefs from 30 to 150 m depth), the primary management response implemented by many countries has been diver-led culling limited to reefs less than 30 m. However, many reef fish undergo ontogenetic migrations, with the largest and therefore most fecund individuals found at greatest depths. Here, we study lionfish density, body size, maturity and dietary patterns across the depth gradient from the surface down to 85 m on heavily culled reefs around Utila, Honduras. We found lionfish at increased densities, body size and weight on MCEs compared with shallow reefs, with MCEs also containing the greatest proportion of actively spawning females, while shallow reefs contained the greatest proportion of immature lionfish. We then compared lionfish behaviour in response to divers on shallow culled and mesophotic unculled Utilan reefs, and on shallow unculled reefs in Tela Bay, on the Honduran mainland. We found that mesophotic lionfish exhibited high alert distances, consistent with individuals previously exposed to culling despite being below the depth limits of removal. In addition, when examining stomach content, we found that fish were the major component of lionfish diets across the depth gradient. Importantly, our results suggest that despite adjacent shallow culling, MCEs retain substantial lionfish populations that may be disproportionately contributing towards continued lionfish recruitment onto the shallow reefs of Utila, potentially undermining current culling-based management.

  3. Depth-dependent effects of culling—do mesophotic lionfish populations undermine current management?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grey, Rachel; Hendrix, Alicia; Hitchner, Drew; Gress, Erika; Madej, Konrad; Parry, Rachel L.; Régnier-McKellar, Catriona; Jones, Owen P.; Arteaga, María; Izaguirre, Andrea P.; Rogers, Alex D.; Exton, Dan A.

    2017-01-01

    Invasive lionfish (Pterois volitans and P. miles) have spread widely across the western Atlantic and are recognized as a major threat to native marine biodiversity. Although lionfish inhabit both shallow reefs and mesophotic coral ecosystems (MCEs; reefs from 30 to 150 m depth), the primary management response implemented by many countries has been diver-led culling limited to reefs less than 30 m. However, many reef fish undergo ontogenetic migrations, with the largest and therefore most fecund individuals found at greatest depths. Here, we study lionfish density, body size, maturity and dietary patterns across the depth gradient from the surface down to 85 m on heavily culled reefs around Utila, Honduras. We found lionfish at increased densities, body size and weight on MCEs compared with shallow reefs, with MCEs also containing the greatest proportion of actively spawning females, while shallow reefs contained the greatest proportion of immature lionfish. We then compared lionfish behaviour in response to divers on shallow culled and mesophotic unculled Utilan reefs, and on shallow unculled reefs in Tela Bay, on the Honduran mainland. We found that mesophotic lionfish exhibited high alert distances, consistent with individuals previously exposed to culling despite being below the depth limits of removal. In addition, when examining stomach content, we found that fish were the major component of lionfish diets across the depth gradient. Importantly, our results suggest that despite adjacent shallow culling, MCEs retain substantial lionfish populations that may be disproportionately contributing towards continued lionfish recruitment onto the shallow reefs of Utila, potentially undermining current culling-based management. PMID:28573007

  4. Errors in ADAS-cog administration and scoring may undermine clinical trials results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schafer, K; De Santi, S; Schneider, L S

    2011-06-01

    The Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale - cognitive subscale (ADAS-cog) is the most widely used cognitive outcome measure in AD trials. Although errors in administration and scoring have been suggested as factors masking accurate estimates and potential effects of treatments, there have been few formal examinations of errors with the ADAS-cog. We provided ADAS-cog administration training using standard methods to raters who were designated as experienced, potential raters by sponsors or contract research organizations for two clinical trials. Training included 1 hour sessions on test administration, scoring, question periods, and required that raters individually view and score a model ADAS-cog administration. Raters scores were compared to the criterion scores established for the model administration. A total of 108 errors were made by 80.6% of the 72 raters; 37.5% made 1 error, 25.0% made 2 errors and 18.0% made 3 or more. Errors were made in all ADAS-cog subsections. The most common were in word finding difficulty (67% of the raters), word recognition (22%), and orientation (22%). For the raters who made 1, 2, or ≥ 3 errors the ADAS-cog score was 17.5 (95% CI, 17.3 - 17.8), 17.8 (17.0 - 18.5), and 18.8 (17.6 - 20.0), respectively, and compared to the criterion score, 18.3. ADAS-cog means differed significantly and the variances were more than twice as large between those who made errors on word finding and those who did not, 17.6 (SD=1.4) vs. 18.8 (SD=0.9), respectively (χ(2) = 37.2, P ADAS-cog scores and clinical trials outcomes. These errors may undermine detection of medication effects by contributing both to a biased point estimate and increased variance of the outcome.

  5. Hospital revenue cycle management and payer mix: do Medicare and Medicaid undermine hospitals' ability to generate and collect patient care revenue?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rauscher, Simone; Wheeler, John R C

    2010-01-01

    The continuing efforts of government payers to contain hospital costs have raised concerns among hospital managers that serving publicly insured patients may undermine their ability to manage the revenue cycle successfully. This study uses financial information from two sources-Medicare cost reports for all US hospitals for 2002 to 2007 and audited financial statements for all bond-issuing, not-for-profit hospitals for 2000 to 2006 to examine the relationship between hospitals' shares of Medicare and Medicaid patients and the amount of patient care revenue they generate as well as the speed with which they collect their revenue. Hospital-level fixed effects regression analysis finds that hospitals with higher Medicare and Medicaid payer mix collect somewhat higher average patient care revenues than hospitals with more privately insured and self-pay patients. Hospitals with more Medicare patients also collect on this revenue faster; serving more Medicaid patients is not associated with the speed of patient revenue collection. For hospital managers, these findings may represent good news. They suggest that, despite increases in the number of publicly insured patients served, managers have frequently been able to generate adequate amounts of patient revenue and collect it in a timely fashion.

  6. Womb Rentals and Baby-Selling: Does Surrogacy Undermine the Human Dignity and Rights of the Surrogate Mother and Child?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Clara

    2016-11-01

    The question of surrogacy has dominated much of the European human rights agenda over the last two years, at the time writing, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe hopes to adopt a resolution on surrogacy in the coming months. There is, however, danger in taking action at a supranational level to address the European 'surrogacy problem', without first honestly answering the question: does surrogacy undermine the human dignity and rights of the surrogate mother and child? This paper presents the case that surrogacy, by its nature, necessarily undermines the human dignity of both the woman and child born through such arrangements, and thus neither commercial nor altruistic surrogacy can ever be justified.

  7. Asymptotically Honest Confidence Regions for High Dimensional

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Caner, Mehmet; Kock, Anders Bredahl

    While variable selection and oracle inequalities for the estimation and prediction error have received considerable attention in the literature on high-dimensional models, very little work has been done in the area of testing and construction of confidence bands in high-dimensional models. However...... develop an oracle inequality for the conservative Lasso only assuming the existence of a certain number of moments. This is done by means of the Marcinkiewicz-Zygmund inequality which in our context provides sharper bounds than Nemirovski's inequality. As opposed to van de Geer et al. (2014) we allow...

  8. On the Psychological Barriers to the Workplace: When and Why Metastereotyping Undermines Employability Beliefs of Women and Ethnic Minorities

    OpenAIRE

    Owuamalam, Chuma Kevin; Zagefka, Hanna

    2014-01-01

    We investigated the effect of how one might expect one’s group to be viewed by a dominant outgroup (i.e., metastereotypes) on employability beliefs of members of disadvantaged groups. Based on the extensive literature on stereotype threat, we hypothesized that activating negative metastereotypes would undermine employability beliefs of members of disadvantaged groups, because such beliefs are likely to threaten their state self-esteem. In particular, we expected that an effect of negative met...

  9. Who counts as family? Family typologies, family support, and family undermining among young adult gay and bisexual men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soler, Jorge H; Caldwell, Cleopatra H; Córdova, David; Harper, Gary; Bauermeister, José A

    2018-06-01

    Gay and bisexual men may form chosen families in addition to or in place of families of origin. However, the characteristics of these diverse families remain largely unexamined in the quantitative literature. The purpose of this study was to develop a family typology based on responses from a racially and ethnically diverse sample of young adult gay and bisexual men (YGBM) recruited from the Detroit Metropolitan Area (N=350; 18-29 years old). To explore the role of family, we then examined family social support and social undermining in relation to YGBM psychological distress within different family types. A series of multivariate regressions were used to examine associations between family social support and social undermining with depression and anxiety outcomes. The majority (88%) of YGBM included family of origin in their definitions of family and 63% indicated having chosen families. Associations between family social processes and psychological outcomes varied by type of family, suggesting that family composition shapes how perceptions of support and undermining relate to experiencing symptoms of depression and anxiety. Chosen families play a prominent role in the lives of YGBM and should not be overlooked in family research. Findings also highlight the importance of examining co-occurring family social support and social stress processes to further address psychological distress symptoms among YGBM.

  10. What undermines healthy habits with regard to physical activity and food? Voices of adolescents in a disadvantaged community.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonsson, Linus; Larsson, Christel; Berg, Christina; Korp, Peter; Lindgren, Eva-Carin

    2017-12-01

    This study aimed to illuminate factors that undermine the healthy habits of adolescents from a multicultural community with low socioeconomic status (S.E.S.) in Sweden with regard to physical activity (P.A.) and food, as stated in their own voices. Adolescents (n = 53, 12-13 y/o) were recruited from one school situated in a multicultural community characterized by low S.E.S. Embracing an interpretive approach, 10 focus-group interviews were conducted to produce data for the study. The focus-group interviews were audio recorded, transcribed verbatim, and analysed using qualitative content analysis. The analysis resulted in two major themes: (1) the availability of temptations is large, and support from the surroundings is limited; and (2) norms and demands set the agenda. The adolescents' voices illuminate a profound awareness and the magnitude of tempting screen-based activities as undermining their P.A. and healthy food habits. Moreover, several gender boundaries were highlighted as undermining girls' P.A. and healthy food habits. The adolescents' stories illuminated that it is difficult for them, within their environment, to establish healthy habits with regard to P.A. and food. To facilitate the adolescents' healthy habits, we suggest that support from family, friends, the school, and society at large is essential.

  11. 78 FR 65903 - Proposed Waste Confidence Rule and Draft Generic Environmental Impact Statement

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-11-04

    ...; Orlando, Florida, on November 6; and Rockville, Maryland, on November 14. The December 9 meeting is a new.... ACTION: Rescheduling of public meetings. SUMMARY: The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has rescheduled the Waste Confidence public meetings it initially planned to hold in Perrysburg, Ohio, and...

  12. Diagnosing Anomalous Network Performance with Confidence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Settlemyer, Bradley W [ORNL; Hodson, Stephen W [ORNL; Kuehn, Jeffery A [ORNL; Poole, Stephen W [ORNL

    2011-04-01

    Variability in network performance is a major obstacle in effectively analyzing the throughput of modern high performance computer systems. High performance interconnec- tion networks offer excellent best-case network latencies; how- ever, highly parallel applications running on parallel machines typically require consistently high levels of performance to adequately leverage the massive amounts of available computing power. Performance analysts have usually quantified network performance using traditional summary statistics that assume the observational data is sampled from a normal distribution. In our examinations of network performance, we have found this method of analysis often provides too little data to under- stand anomalous network performance. Our tool, Confidence, instead uses an empirically derived probability distribution to characterize network performance. In this paper we describe several instances where the Confidence toolkit allowed us to understand and diagnose network performance anomalies that we could not adequately explore with the simple summary statis- tics provided by traditional measurement tools. In particular, we examine a multi-modal performance scenario encountered with an Infiniband interconnection network and we explore the performance repeatability on the custom Cray SeaStar2 interconnection network after a set of software and driver updates.

  13. Confidence intervals for the lognormal probability distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, D.L.; Naberejnev, D.G.

    2004-01-01

    The present communication addresses the topic of symmetric confidence intervals for the lognormal probability distribution. This distribution is frequently utilized to characterize inherently positive, continuous random variables that are selected to represent many physical quantities in applied nuclear science and technology. The basic formalism is outlined herein and a conjured numerical example is provided for illustration. It is demonstrated that when the uncertainty reflected in a lognormal probability distribution is large, the use of a confidence interval provides much more useful information about the variable used to represent a particular physical quantity than can be had by adhering to the notion that the mean value and standard deviation of the distribution ought to be interpreted as best value and corresponding error, respectively. Furthermore, it is shown that if the uncertainty is very large a disturbing anomaly can arise when one insists on interpreting the mean value and standard deviation as the best value and corresponding error, respectively. Reliance on using the mode and median as alternative parameters to represent the best available knowledge of a variable with large uncertainties is also shown to entail limitations. Finally, a realistic physical example involving the decay of radioactivity over a time period that spans many half-lives is presented and analyzed to further illustrate the concepts discussed in this communication

  14. The relationship between confidence in charitable organizations and volunteering revisited

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bekkers, René H.F.P.; Bowman, Woods

    2009-01-01

    Confidence in charitable organizations (charitable confidence) would seem to be an important prerequisite for philanthropic behavior. Previous research relying on cross-sectional data has suggested that volunteering promotes charitable confidence and vice versa. This research note, using new

  15. Government policy, research and stakeholder confidence - Current Trends in Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Letourneau, Carmel

    2006-01-01

    The author addressed the topic of government Policy, research and stakeholder Confidence from the perspective of government policy makers in Canada. The presentation reviewed the question: why carry out more research into methods of long-term management of nuclear fuel waste? In addressing this question, the author provided some perspectives that were expressed by the Canadian public, since reflected in the Final Study of management approaches led by the Nuclear Waste Management Organization (NWMO), an organization set up by the nuclear industry to study options for the long-term management of nuclear fuel waste. The Final Study was submitted to the federal Minister of Natural Resources in November 2005 as required under the Nuclear Fuel Waste Act. The NWMO's Final Study emphasized the important role of continuous learning, a key element in the NWMO's recommendation of Adaptive Phased Management. It was reported that the NWMO work had identified many reasons to carry out further research. Regardless of the management approach adopted, activities to manage radioactive waste will continue for a very long time. Any management program could be expected to apply the best practice available at the time. A program that will evolve over a long period of time will have many opportunities for improvements to increase performance, enhance effectiveness, and address rising societal concerns. It was suggested that, to realize these benefits, there needs to be a vibrant and robust research and development effort during management program development and execution, a period that will last many generations, and enable implementers to adapt to a changing environment. Among the reasons put forward for continuing research were, to: - Embody the principles of continuous learning which encourages standards of excellence and integrity; - Prepare for facility siting, design, licensing, development and operations to improve designs, minimize costs, enhance schedules, and reduce

  16. Enhanced Positive Emotional Reactivity Undermines Empathy in Behavioral Variant Frontotemporal Dementia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alice Y. Hua

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Behavioral variant frontotemporal dementia (bvFTD is a neurodegenerative disease characterized by profound changes in emotions and empathy. Although most patients with bvFTD become less sensitive to negative emotional cues, some patients become more sensitive to positive emotional stimuli. We investigated whether dysregulated positive emotions in bvFTD undermine empathy by making it difficult for patients to share (emotional empathy, recognize (cognitive empathy, and respond (real-world empathy to emotions in others. Fifty-one participants (26 patients with bvFTD and 25 healthy controls viewed photographs of neutral, positive, negative, and self-conscious emotional faces and then identified the emotions displayed in the photographs. We used facial electromyography to measure automatic, sub-visible activity in two facial muscles during the task: Zygomaticus major (ZM, which is active during positive emotional reactions (i.e., smiling, and Corrugator supercilii (CS, which is active during negative emotional reactions (i.e., frowning. Participants rated their baseline positive and negative emotional experience before the task, and informants rated participants' real-world empathic behavior on the Interpersonal Reactivity Index. The majority of participants also underwent structural magnetic resonance imaging. A mixed effects model found a significant diagnosis X trial interaction: patients with bvFTD showed greater ZM reactivity to neutral, negative (disgust and surprise, self-conscious (proud, and positive (happy faces than healthy controls. There was no main effect of diagnosis or diagnosis X trial interaction on CS reactivity. Compared to healthy controls, patients with bvFTD had impaired emotion recognition. Multiple regression analyses revealed that greater ZM reactivity predicted worse negative emotion recognition and worse real-world empathy. At baseline, positive emotional experience was higher in bvFTD than healthy controls and also

  17. Confidence crisis of results in biomechanics research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knudson, Duane

    2017-11-01

    Many biomechanics studies have small sample sizes and incorrect statistical analyses, so reporting of inaccurate inferences and inflated magnitude of effects are common in the field. This review examines these issues in biomechanics research and summarises potential solutions from research in other fields to increase the confidence in the experimental effects reported in biomechanics. Authors, reviewers and editors of biomechanics research reports are encouraged to improve sample sizes and the resulting statistical power, improve reporting transparency, improve the rigour of statistical analyses used, and increase the acceptance of replication studies to improve the validity of inferences from data in biomechanics research. The application of sports biomechanics research results would also improve if a larger percentage of unbiased effects and their uncertainty were reported in the literature.

  18. Technology in a crisis of confidence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Damodaran, G R

    1979-04-01

    The power that technological progress has given to engineers is examined to see if there has been a corresponding growth in human happiness. A credit/debit approach is discussed, whereby technological advancement is measured against the criteria of social good. The credit side includes medicine, agriculture, and energy use, while the debit side lists pollution, unequal distribution of technology and welfare, modern weaponry, resource depletion, and a possible decline in the quality of life. The present anti-technologists claim the debit side is now predominant, but the author challenges this position by examining the role of technology and the engineer in the society. He sees a need for renewed self-confidence and a sense of direction among engineers, but is generally optimistic that technology and civilization will continue to be intertwined. (DCK)

  19. Interpersonal confidence as a factor in the prevention of disorganized interaction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dontsov, Aleksander I.

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Human communities are based on a certain set of everyday attitudes, on the coordination of the actions of “the self ” in a group, and on the regulation of social practices. The results of this study show that a number of factors act as determinants of trust/ distrust ambivalence: the multidimensionality and the dynamics of interactions among people; the high level of subjectivity in evaluating risks resulting from openness and from confidence in partners involved in an interaction; and a subject’s contradictory attitude toward the personal traits of an interacting partner (power, activity, honesty, trustworthiness. Japanese scholars have proved the necessity of taking into account quality of life (QOL as one of the determinants of the development of interpersonal confidence. The study demonstrates that people try to bring trust into their daily routines as a way of organizing conscientious, emotionally open interactions that take into account the interests of all parties. Mistrust blocks access to the emotional, intellectual, and activity-related resources supporting life and undermines faith in the possibility of virtue and morality. Yet a supplementary study (using instant diagnostics indicates that in practice respondents did not demonstrate a high level of confidence (in two cities it was 0%; in one city, it was 4.6%. In spite of emotionally positive views regarding trust, as well as constructive estimates of its moral/behavioral potential, a considerable number of respondents were not open and oriented to the interests of others. A tendency toward caution, inwardness, and constrained sincerity leads to nonconformity in one’s actions in a group and to changes in the vector of social practices from socio-partner regulation to disorganized interaction.

  20. Chinese Management Research Needs Self-Confidence but not Over-confidence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Xin; Ma, Li

    2018-01-01

    Chinese management research aims to contribute to global management knowledge by offering rigorous and innovative theories and practical recommendations both for managing in China and outside. However, two seemingly opposite directions that researchers are taking could prove detrimental......-confidence, limiting theoretical innovation and practical relevance. Yet going in the other direction of overly indigenous research reflects over-confidence, often isolating the Chinese management research from the mainstream academia and at times, even becoming anti-science. A more integrated approach of conducting...... to the healthy development of Chinese management research. We argue that the two directions share a common ground that lies in the mindset regarding the confidence in the work on and from China. One direction of simply following the American mainstream on academic rigor demonstrates a lack of self...

  1. Confidence building in and through fission and fusion activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toyojiro Fuketa

    1989-01-01

    The peaceful uses of atomic energy are most suitable for achieving worldwide confidence building for the following reasons. (1) In spite of the need for peaceful uses of nuclear energy, the world is facing difficulties in the public perception and acceptance of nuclear works and facilities. (2) The above difficulties are due to many factors, such as the two sides of nuclear energy peaceful and military, the possibility of a large-scale reactor accident, the lack of understanding about radiation and radioactivity, and finally, emotion and egoism. Some of these factors are unique to nuclear-energy, but in other cases of public reactions, there are many facets similar to the above factors. (3) The public concern about safety is at its highest, broadest and severest point ever, coincident with the highest life expectancy in history. Over-precaution and over-protection about certain things may sometimes spoil one's health. Nuclear energy is most definitely suffering from such a trend. As a result, a severe nuclear accident in any country results in severe damage worldwide no manner in what form the real physical effects reach other countries. (4) The huge science and technology efforts required for fission and fusion activities cannot be fully achieved by one country. Explanations of some of the above factors are given. 2 refs

  2. Leader's opinion priority bounded confidence model for network opinion evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Meixia; Xie, Guangqiang

    2017-08-01

    Aiming at the weight of trust someone given to participate in the interaction in Hegselmann-Krause's type consensus model is the same and virtual social networks among individuals with different level of education, personal influence, etc. For differences between agents, a novelty bounded confidence model was proposed with leader's opinion considered priority. Interaction neighbors can be divided into two kinds. The first kind is made up of "opinion leaders" group, another kind is made up of ordinary people. For different groups to give different weights of trust. We also analyzed the related characteristics of the new model under the symmetrical bounded confidence parameters and combined with the classical HK model were analyzed. Simulation experiment results show that no matter the network size and initial view is subject to uniform distribution or discrete distribution. We can control the "opinion-leader" good change the number of views and values, and even improve the convergence speed. Experiment also found that the choice of "opinion leaders" is not the more the better, the model well explain how the "opinion leader" in the process of the evolution of the public opinion play the role of the leader.

  3. The theory of confidence-building measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Darilek, R.E.

    1992-01-01

    This paper discusses the theory of Confidence-Building Measures (CBMs) in two ways. First, it employs a top-down, deductively oriented approach to explain CBM theory in terms of the arms control goals and objectives to be achieved, the types of measures to be employed, and the problems or limitations likely to be encountered when applying CBMs to conventional or nuclear forces. The chapter as a whole asks how various types of CBMs might function during a political - military escalation from peacetime to a crisis and beyond (i.e. including conflict), as well as how they might operate in a de-escalatory environment. In pursuit of these overarching issues, the second section of the chapter raises a fundamental but complicating question: how might the next all-out war actually come aoubt - by unpremeditated escalation resulting from misunderstanding or miscalculation, or by premeditation resulting in a surprise attack? The second section of the paper addresses this question, explores its various implications for CBMs, and suggests the potential contribution of different types of CBMs toward successful resolution of the issues involved

  4. Trust versus confidence: Microprocessors and personnel monitoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiaro, P.J. Jr.

    1993-01-01

    Due to recent technological advances, substantial improvements have been made in personnel contamination monitoring. In all likelihood, these advances will close out the days of manually frisking personnel for radioactive contamination. Unfortunately, as microprocessor-based monitors become more widely used, not only at commercial power reactors but also at government facilities, questions concerning their trustworthiness arise. Algorithms make decisions that were previously made by technicians. Trust is placed not in technicians but in machines. In doing this it is assumed that the machine never misses. Inevitably, this trust drops, due largely to open-quotes false alarms.close quotes This is especially true when monitoring for alpha contamination. What is a open-quotes false alarm?close quotes Do these machines and their algorithms that we put our trust in make mistakes? An analysis was performed on half-body and hand-and-foot monitors at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) in order to justify the suggested confidence level used for alarm point determination. Sources used in this analysis had activities approximating ORNL's contamination limits

  5. Trust versus confidence: Microprocessors and personnel monitoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiaro, P.J. Jr.

    1993-01-01

    Due to recent technological advances, substantial improvements have been made in personnel contamination monitoring. In all likelihood, these advances will close out the days of manually frisking personnel for radioactive contamination. Unfortunately, as microprocessor-based monitors become more widely used, not only at commercial power reactors but also at government facilities, questions concerning their trustworthiness arise. Algorithms make decisions that were previously made by technicians. Trust is placed not in technicians but in machines. In doing this it is assumed that the machine never misses. Inevitably, this trust drops, due largely to ''false alarms''. This is especially true when monitoring for alpha contamination. What is a ''false alarm''? Do these machines and their algorithms that we put our trust in make mistakes? An analysis was performed on half-body and hand-and-foot monitors at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) in order to justify the suggested confidence level used for alarm point determination. Sources used in this analysis had activities approximating ORNL's contamination limits

  6. Trust versus confidence: Microprocessors and personnel monitoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiaro, P.J. Jr.

    1994-01-01

    Due to recent technological advances, substantial improvements have been made in personnel contamination monitoring. In all likelihood, these advances will close out the days of manually frisking personnel for radioactive contamination. Unfortunately, as microprocessor-based monitors become more widely used, not only at commercial power reactors but also at government facilities, questions concerning their trustworthiness arise. Algorithms make decisions that were previously made by technicians. Trust is placed not in technicians but in machines. In doing this it is assumed that the machine never misses. Inevitably, this trust drops, due largely to ''false alarms''. This is especially true when monitoring for alpha contamination. What is a ''false alarm''? Do these machines and their algorithms that they put their trust in make mistakes? An analysis was performed on half-body and hand-and-foot monitors at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) in order to justify the suggested confidence level used for alarm point determination. Sources used in this analysis had activities approximating ORNL's contamination limits

  7. Examining Belief and Confidence in Schizophrenia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joyce, Dan W.; Averbeck, Bruno B.; Frith, Chris D.; Shergill, Sukhwinder S.

    2018-01-01

    Background People with psychoses often report fixed, delusional beliefs that are sustained even in the presence of unequivocal contrary evidence. Such delusional beliefs are the result of integrating new and old evidence inappropriately in forming a cognitive model. We propose and test a cognitive model of belief formation using experimental data from an interactive “Rock Paper Scissors” game. Methods Participants (33 controls and 27 people with schizophrenia) played a competitive, time-pressured interactive two-player game (Rock, Paper, Scissors). Participant’s behavior was modeled by a generative computational model using leaky-integrator and temporal difference methods. This model describes how new and old evidence is integrated to form both a playing strategy to beat the opponent and provide a mechanism for reporting confidence in one’s playing strategy to win against the opponent Results People with schizophrenia fail to appropriately model their opponent’s play despite consistent (rather than random) patterns that can be exploited in the simulated opponent’s play. This is manifest as a failure to weigh existing evidence appropriately against new evidence. Further, participants with schizophrenia show a ‘jumping to conclusions’ bias, reporting successful discovery of a winning strategy with insufficient evidence. Conclusions The model presented suggests two tentative mechanisms in delusional belief formation – i) one for modeling patterns in other’s behavior, where people with schizophrenia fail to use old evidence appropriately and ii) a meta-cognitive mechanism for ‘confidence’ in such beliefs where people with schizophrenia overweight recent reward history in deciding on the value of beliefs about the opponent. PMID:23521846

  8. Trojan Ponies: Undermining the Establishment Clause in the Name of "Child Benefit Theory."

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thurau-Gray, Lisa H.

    1998-01-01

    Two cases illustrate that whenever the schools or courts abandon the Establishment Clause and embrace "child benefit theory," religious schoolchildren are the only winners. Application of "child benefit theory" has engendered religious strife, increased public funds for religious schools, increased sectarian control of public…

  9. Allocation Anatomy: How District Policies That Deploy Resources Can Support (or Undermine) District Reform Strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roza, Marguerite

    2008-01-01

    The goal of this paper is to explore the effects of micro-budgeting decisions and show how they might support or hamper district reform strategies. The study draws on public and private sector resource allocation literature to identify key elements of resource allocation decisions. These elements are used to highlight different allocation…

  10. The case for transforming governmental public health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salinsky, Eileen; Gursky, Elin A

    2006-01-01

    Changing threats to the public's health necessitate a profound transformation of the public health enterprise. Despite recent attention to the biodefense role of public health, policymakers have not developed a clear, realistic vision for the structure and functionality of the governmental public health system. Lack of leadership and organizational disconnects across levels of government have prevented strategic alignment of resources and undermined momentum for meaningful change. A transformed public health system is needed to address the demands of emergency preparedness and health protection. Such transformation should include focused, risk-based resource allocation; regional planning; technological upgrades; workforce restructuring; improved integration of private-sector assets; and better performance monitoring.

  11. Learning about confidence intervals with software R

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gariela Gonçalves

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available 0 0 1 202 1111 USAL 9 2 1311 14.0 Normal 0 21 false false false ES JA X-NONE /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Tabla normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0cm; mso-para-margin-right:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0cm; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-ansi-language:ES; mso-fareast-language:EN-US;} This work was to study the feasibility of implementing a teaching method that employs software, in a Computational Mathematics course, involving students and teachers through the use of the statistical software R in carrying out practical work, such as strengthening the traditional teaching. The statistical inference, namely the determination of confidence intervals, was the content selected for this experience. It was intended show, first of all, that it is possible to promote, through the proposal methodology, the acquisition of basic skills in statistical inference and to promote the positive relationships between teachers and students. It presents also a comparative study between the methodologies used and their quantitative and qualitative results on two consecutive school years, in several indicators. The data used in the study were obtained from the students to the exam questions in the years 2010/2011 and 2011/2012, from the achievement of a working group in 2011/2012 and via the responses to a questionnaire (optional and anonymous also applied in 2011 / 2012. In terms of results, we emphasize a better performance of students in the examination questions in 2011/2012, the year that students used the software R, and a very favorable student’s perspective about

  12. Confidence Intervals from Normalized Data: A correction to Cousineau (2005

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard D. Morey

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Presenting confidence intervals around means is a common method of expressing uncertainty in data. Loftus and Masson (1994 describe confidence intervals for means in within-subjects designs. These confidence intervals are based on the ANOVA mean squared error. Cousineau (2005 presents an alternative to the Loftus and Masson method, but his method produces confidence intervals that are smaller than those of Loftus and Masson. I show why this is the case and offer a simple correction that makes the expected size of Cousineau confidence intervals the same as that of Loftus and Masson confidence intervals.

  13. The confidence-accuracy relationship for eyewitness identification decisions: Effects of exposure duration, retention interval, and divided attention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palmer, Matthew A; Brewer, Neil; Weber, Nathan; Nagesh, Ambika

    2013-03-01

    Prior research points to a meaningful confidence-accuracy (CA) relationship for positive identification decisions. However, there are theoretical grounds for expecting that different aspects of the CA relationship (calibration, resolution, and over/underconfidence) might be undermined in some circumstances. This research investigated whether the CA relationship for eyewitness identification decisions is affected by three, forensically relevant variables: exposure duration, retention interval, and divided attention at encoding. In Study 1 (N = 986), a field experiment, we examined the effects of exposure duration (5 s vs. 90 s) and retention interval (immediate testing vs. a 1-week delay) on the CA relationship. In Study 2 (N = 502), we examined the effects of attention during encoding on the CA relationship by reanalyzing data from a laboratory experiment in which participants viewed a stimulus video under full or divided attention conditions and then attempted to identify two targets from separate lineups. Across both studies, all three manipulations affected identification accuracy. The central analyses concerned the CA relation for positive identification decisions. For the manipulations of exposure duration and retention interval, overconfidence was greater in the more difficult conditions (shorter exposure; delayed testing) than the easier conditions. Only the exposure duration manipulation influenced resolution (which was better for 5 s than 90 s), and only the retention interval manipulation affected calibration (which was better for immediate testing than delayed testing). In all experimental conditions, accuracy and diagnosticity increased with confidence, particularly at the upper end of the confidence scale. Implications for theory and forensic settings are discussed.

  14. Forum of stakeholder confidence - Phase II of program of work

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Le Bars, Yves

    2006-01-01

    The author welcomed the Forum for Stakeholder Confidence (FSC) participants and introduced the day's meetings that would investigate the possible contributions and conditions for RD and D to support stakeholder confidence. In his introductory remarks, Mr. Le Bars reviewed the intent of this topical discussion and its contribution to the Phase 2 Programme of Work for FSC. Observations were drawn from previous FSC work concerning the evolving requirements for stakeholder involvement that require a new culture within the organizations. It is recognized that each actor must respect certain values and abilities, and have the capacity to communicate, to learn from the public and to adapt. In particular, it was suggested that the role of the expert in the decision-making process has changed, and there is a need to restore credibility to the voice of experts to support the processes relating to radioactive waste management. Mr. Le Bars spoke about the changing role of the 'expert' and increasing demands from the public to be informed, active participants in decision-making processes. As societal expectations have evolved over the years, there is less willingness to give the expert the legitimacy to decide, or the expert working solely with the decision-maker. Rather, there are growing demands for public policies to be defined and implemented through decision-making processes that also invite stakeholder participation, as another important category of actors. Thus, the decision-making process can be viewed as now involving three parties: the public, the experts and decision-makers. Research must be positioned in this context. Research must be part of the process, structure, behaviour and debate. It is meant to be introduced in the process as contributor to the project definition, by providing scientific background. Further, it is best undertaken through an adaptive behaviour, carried out by institutions with a clearly defined and communicated role. In setting

  15. Sources of sport confidence, imagery type and performance among competitive athletes: the mediating role of sports confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, A R; Perry, J; Nicholls, A R; Larkin, D; Davies, J

    2015-01-01

    This study explored the mediating role of sport confidence upon (1) sources of sport confidence-performance relationship and (2) imagery-performance relationship. Participants were 157 competitive athletes who completed state measures of confidence level/sources, imagery type and performance within one hour after competition. Among the current sample, confirmatory factor analysis revealed appropriate support for the nine-factor SSCQ and the five-factor SIQ. Mediational analysis revealed that sport confidence had a mediating influence upon the achievement source of confidence-performance relationship. In addition, both cognitive and motivational imagery types were found to be important sources of confidence, as sport confidence mediated imagery type- performance relationship. Findings indicated that athletes who construed confidence from their own achievements and report multiple images on a more frequent basis are likely to benefit from enhanced levels of state sport confidence and subsequent performance.

  16. Government spending on Canada's oil and gas industry : undermining Canada's Kyoto commitment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, A.; Bramley, M.; Winfield, M.

    2005-01-01

    This study investigates government spending in the Canadian oil and gas industry within the context of greenhouse gas emission trends and Kyoto commitments. Various forms of provincial and federal government support provided between 1996 and 2002 through grants, tax expenditures, and government program expenditures for conventional oil and gas and oil sands sectors are presented. The paper contextualizes government support for oil and gas production, discusses what constitutes a subsidy, presents the methodology and approach used to establish expenditure estimates, presents the study findings and discusses expenditure estimates and puts the results into the context of other public policy work. The conclusion recommends policy changes and describes important areas for future research related to public expenditure on oil and gas production. The study concludes that while it is understood that reform or removal of environmentally harmful subsidies will not solve environmental problems alone, such actions are important in order to achieve environmental improvements and objectives. 163 refs., 24 tabs, 5 figs

  17. Trafficking in tobacco farm culture: Tobacco companies use of video imagery to undermine health policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otañez, Martin G; Glantz, Stanton A

    2009-01-01

    The cigarette companies and their lobbying organization used tobacco industry-produced films and videos about tobacco farming to support their political, public relations, and public policy goals. Critical discourse analysis shows how tobacco companies utilized film and video imagery and narratives of tobacco farmers and tobacco economies for lobbying politicians and influencing consumers, industry-allied groups, and retail shop owners to oppose tobacco control measures and counter publicity on the health hazards, social problems, and environmental effects of tobacco growing. Imagery and narratives of tobacco farmers, tobacco barns, and agricultural landscapes in industry videos constituted a tobacco industry strategy to construct a corporate vision of tobacco farm culture that privileges the economic benefits of tobacco. The positive discursive representations of tobacco farming ignored actual behavior of tobacco companies to promote relationships of dependency and subordination for tobacco farmers and to contribute to tobacco-related poverty, child labor, and deforestation in tobacco growing countries. While showing tobacco farming as a family and a national tradition and a source of jobs, tobacco companies portrayed tobacco as a tradition to be protected instead of an industry to be regulated and denormalized. PMID:20160936

  18. Trafficking in tobacco farm culture: Tobacco companies use of video imagery to undermine health policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otañez, Martin G; Glantz, Stanton A

    2009-05-01

    The cigarette companies and their lobbying organization used tobacco industry-produced films and videos about tobacco farming to support their political, public relations, and public policy goals. Critical discourse analysis shows how tobacco companies utilized film and video imagery and narratives of tobacco farmers and tobacco economies for lobbying politicians and influencing consumers, industry-allied groups, and retail shop owners to oppose tobacco control measures and counter publicity on the health hazards, social problems, and environmental effects of tobacco growing. Imagery and narratives of tobacco farmers, tobacco barns, and agricultural landscapes in industry videos constituted a tobacco industry strategy to construct a corporate vision of tobacco farm culture that privileges the economic benefits of tobacco. The positive discursive representations of tobacco farming ignored actual behavior of tobacco companies to promote relationships of dependency and subordination for tobacco farmers and to contribute to tobacco-related poverty, child labor, and deforestation in tobacco growing countries. While showing tobacco farming as a family and a national tradition and a source of jobs, tobacco companies portrayed tobacco as a tradition to be protected instead of an industry to be regulated and denormalized.

  19. Exploring midwives' perception of confidence around facilitating water birth in Western Australia: A qualitative descriptive study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholls, Sarah; Hauck, Yvonne L; Bayes, Sarah; Butt, Janice

    2016-02-01

    the option of labouring and/or birthing immersed in warm water has become widely available throughout hospitals in the United Kingdom and Europe over the last two decades. The practice, which also occurs in New Zealand and interstate in Australia, has until recently only been available in Western Australia for women birthing at home with a small publically funded Community Midwifery Program. Despite its popularity and acceptance elsewhere, birth in water has only recently become an option for women attending some public health services in Western Australia. The Clinical Guidelines developed for the local context that support water birth require that the midwives be confident and competent to care for these women. The issue of competency can be addressed with relative ease by maternity care providers; however confidence is rather more difficult to teach, foster and attain. Clinical confidence is an integral element of clinical judgement and promotes patient safety and comfort. For this reason confident midwives are an essential requirement to support the option of water birth in Western Australia. The aim of this study was to capture midwives' perceptions of becoming and being confident in conducting water birth in addition to factors perceived to inhibit and facilitate the development of that confidence. a modified grounded theory methodology with thematic analysis. four public maternity services offering the option of water birth in the Perth metropolitan area. registered midwives employed at one of the four publicly funded maternity services that offered the option of water birth between June 2011 and June 2013. Sixteen midwives were interviewed on a one to one basis. An additional 10 midwives participated in a focus group interview. three main categories emerged from the data analysis: what came before the journey, becoming confident - the journey and staying confident. Each contained between three and five subcategories. Together they depicted how midwives

  20. Selected science: an industry campaign to undermine an OSHA hexavalent chromium standard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lurie Peter

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract While exposure to hexavalent chromium (Cr(VI has been associated with increased lung cancer risk for more than 50 years, the chemical is not currently regulated by the U.S. Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA on the basis of its carcinogenicity. The agency was petitioned in 1993 and sued in 1997 and 2002 to lower the workplace Cr(VI exposure limit, resulting in a court order to issue a final standard by February 2006. Faced with the threat of stronger regulation, the chromium industry initiated an effort to challenge the scientific evidence supporting a more protective standard. This effort included the use of "product defense" consultants to conduct post hoc analyses of a publicly-funded study to challenge results viewed unfavorably by the industry. The industry also commissioned a study of the mortality experience of workers at four low-exposure chromium plants, but did not make the results available to OSHA in a timely manner, despite multiple agency requests for precisely these sorts of data. The commissioned study found a statistically significant elevation in lung cancer risk among Cr(VI-exposed workers at levels far below the current standard. This finding changed when the multi-plant cohort was divided into two statistically underpowered components and then published separately. The findings of the first paper published have been used by the chromium industry to attempt to slow OSHA's standard setting process. The second paper was withheld from OSHA until it was accepted for publication in a scientific journal, after the rulemaking record had closed. Studies funded by private sponsors that seek to influence public regulatory proceedings should be subject to the same access and reporting provisions as those applied to publicly funded science. Parties in regulatory proceedings should be required to disclose whether the studies were performed by researchers who had the right to present their findings without the

  1. Alternative confidence measure for local matching stereo algorithms

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Ndhlovu, T

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available The authors present a confidence measure applied to individual disparity estimates in local matching stereo correspondence algorithms. It aims at identifying textureless areas, where most local matching algorithms fail. The confidence measure works...

  2. nigerian students' self-confidence in responding to statements

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Temechegn

    Altogether the test is made up of 40 items covering students' ability to recall definition ... confidence interval within which student have confidence in their choice of the .... is mentioned these equilibrium systems come to memory of the learner.

  3. Building confidence in nuclear waste regulation: how NRC is adapting in response to stakeholder concerns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kotra, Janet P.

    2004-01-01

    Increasing public confidence in the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission as an effective and independent regulator is an explicit goal of the Agency. When developing new, site-specific regulations for the proposed geologic repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, NRC sought to improve its efforts to inform and involve the public in NRC's decision-making process. To this end, NRC has made, and continues to make significant organizational, process and policy changes. NRC successfully applied these changes as it completed final regulations for Yucca Mountain, when introducing a draft license review plan for public comment, and when responding to public requests for information on NRC's licensing and hearing process. It should be understood, however, that these changes emerged, and continue to be applied, in the context of evolving agency concern for increasing stakeholder confidence reflected in institutional changes within the agency as a whole. (author)

  4. Energy price dispute - companies are confident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marcan, P.; Slovak, P.

    2007-01-01

    Energy prices stipulated for 2003 were not compliant with the valid legislation. The Constitutional Court has repeatedly confirmed this fact. The dispute between several Slovak companies and the state will address the damage caused by illegal actions taken by the public authority, including loss of profit. A group of claimants represented by the Club 500 association is claiming up to 2 bil. Sk (57.97 mil. EUR) as compensation for the mistake made by the Office for Regulation of Network Industries (URSO), including the unclear calculation of the lost profit of companies. It will be up to the courts to decide whether the price deregulation really caused damage to the companies or whether they just took advantage of the faulty legislation.The companies base their claims on a decision of the Constitutional Court. Last year the Court twice announced that the 2003 energy prices were not compliant with valid legislation. At that time, Slovakia lacked a generally binding regulation that should have been in place according to the Act on Regulation of Network Industries. Currently, the role of these missing regulations has been taken over by URSO decrees. These stipulate justified costs and adequate profit of energy suppliers. The regulator had such a decree prepared at the end of 2002, but due to material stipulations and time constraints it did not publish it. (authors)

  5. Simultaneous confidence bands for the integrated hazard function

    OpenAIRE

    Dudek, Anna; Gocwin, Maciej; Leskow, Jacek

    2006-01-01

    The construction of the simultaneous confidence bands for the integrated hazard function is considered. The Nelson--Aalen estimator is used. The simultaneous confidence bands based on bootstrap methods are presented. Two methods of construction of such confidence bands are proposed. The weird bootstrap method is used for resampling. Simulations are made to compare the actual coverage probability of the bootstrap and the asymptotic simultaneous confidence bands. It is shown that the equal--tai...

  6. 49 CFR 1103.23 - Confidences of a client.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 8 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Confidences of a client. 1103.23 Section 1103.23... Responsibilities Toward A Client § 1103.23 Confidences of a client. (a) The practitioner's duty to preserve his client's confidence outlasts the practitioner's employment by the client, and this duty extends to the...

  7. Contrasting Academic Behavioural Confidence in Mexican and European Psychology Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ochoa, Alma Rosa Aguila; Sander, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Introduction: Research with the Academic Behavioural Confidence scale using European students has shown that students have high levels of confidence in their academic abilities. It is generally accepted that people in more collectivist cultures have more realistic confidence levels in contrast to the overconfidence seen in individualistic European…

  8. Underreporting of high-risk water and sanitation practices undermines progress on global targets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vedachalam, Sridhar; MacDonald, Luke H; Shiferaw, Solomon; Seme, Assefa; Schwab, Kellogg J

    2017-01-01

    Water and sanitation indicators under the Millennium Development Goals failed to capture high-risk practices undertaken on a regular basis. In conjunction with local partners, fourteen rounds of household surveys using mobile phones with a customized open-source application were conducted across nine study geographies in Asia and Africa. In addition to the main water and sanitation facilities, interviewees (n = 245,054) identified all water and sanitation options regularly used for at least one season of the year. Unimproved water consumption and open defecation were targeted as high-risk practices. We defined underreporting as the difference between the regular and main use of high-risk practices. Our estimates of high-risk practices as the main option matched the widely accepted Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) estimates within the 95% confidence interval. However, estimates of these practices as a regular option was far higher than the DHS estimates. Across the nine geographies, median underreporting of unimproved water use was 5.5%, with a range of 0.5% to 13.9%. Median underreporting of open defecation was much higher at 9.9%, with a range of 2.7% to 11.5%. This resulted in an underreported population of 25 million regularly consuming unimproved water and 50 million regularly practicing open defecation. Further examination of data from Ethiopia suggested that location and socio-economic factors were significant drivers of underreporting. Current global monitoring relies on a framework that considers the availability and use of a single option to meet drinking water and sanitation needs. Our analysis demonstrates the use of multiple options and widespread underreporting of high-risk practices. Policies based on current monitoring data, therefore, fail to consider the range of challenges and solutions to meeting water and sanitation needs, and result in an inflated sense of progress. Mobile surveys offer a cost-effective and innovative platform to rapidly

  9. The State of Vaccine Confidence 2016: Global Insights Through a 67-Country Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heidi J. Larson, PhD

    2016-10-01

    Conclusions: Regular monitoring of vaccine attitudes – coupled with monitoring of local immunization rates – at the national and sub-national levels can identify populations with declining confidence and acceptance. These populations should be prioritized to further investigate the drivers of negative sentiment and to inform appropriate interventions to prevent adverse public health outcomes.

  10. Teachers' confidence in teaching HIV/AIDS and sexuality in South African and Tanzanian schools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helleve, Arnfinn; Flisher, Alan J; Onya, Hans; Kaaya, Sylvia; Mukoma, Wanjiru; Swai, Caroline; Klepp, Knut-Inge

    2009-06-01

    This study aimed to investigate how confident and comfortable teachers at Tanzanian and South African urban and rural schools are in teaching HIV/AIDS and sexuality. It also aimed at identifying factors associated with teacher confidence and investigated how reported confidence was associated with the implementation of educational programmes on HIV/AIDS and sexuality. A survey was conducted among South African grade 8 and 9 Life Orientation teachers, and among science teachers for grade 5 to 7 in public primary schools in Tanzania. Teachers' confidence levels were measured on a four-item scale (0-3). A total number of 266 teachers participated in a survey in 86 schools in South Africa and Tanzania. Overall, teachers report to be rather confident in teaching HIV/AIDS and sexuality. Tanzanian teachers reported higher levels of confidence then did their South Africa colleagues (2.1 vs. 1.8; p teaching was significantly associated with the numbers of years teaching HIV/AIDS and sexuality, formal training in these subjects, experience in discussing the topics with others, school policy and priority given to teaching HIV/AIDS and sexuality at school. Finally, confidence in teaching remained positively associated with self-reported successful implementation of school-based programmes after adjusting for gender, age, religion and numbers of years teaching HIV/AIDS and sexuality. Across urban and rural sites in South Africa and Tanzania teachers reported to be fairly confident in teaching HIV/AIDS and sexuality. Further strengthening of their confidence levels could, however, be an important measure for improving the implementation of such programmes.

  11. Effects of postidentification feedback on eyewitness identification and nonidentification confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semmler, Carolyn; Brewer, Neil; Wells, Gary L

    2004-04-01

    Two experiments investigated new dimensions of the effect of confirming feedback on eyewitness identification confidence using target-absent and target-present lineups and (previously unused) unbiased witness instructions (i.e., "offender not present" option highlighted). In Experiment 1, participants viewed a crime video and were later asked to try to identify the thief from an 8-person target-absent photo array. Feedback inflated witness confidence for both mistaken identifications and correct lineup rejections. With target-present lineups in Experiment 2, feedback inflated confidence for correct and mistaken identifications and lineup rejections. Although feedback had no influence on the confidence-accuracy correlation, it produced clear overconfidence. Confidence inflation varied with the confidence measure reference point (i.e., retrospective vs. current confidence) and identification response latency.

  12. Effects of confidence and anxiety on flow state in competition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koehn, Stefan

    2013-01-01

    Confidence and anxiety are important variables that underlie the experience of flow in sport. Specifically, research has indicated that confidence displays a positive relationship and anxiety a negative relationship with flow. The aim of this study was to assess potential direct and indirect effects of confidence and anxiety dimensions on flow state in tennis competition. A sample of 59 junior tennis players completed measures of Competitive State Anxiety Inventory-2d and Flow State Scale-2. Following predictive analysis, results showed significant positive correlations between confidence (intensity and direction) and anxiety symptoms (only directional perceptions) with flow state. Standard multiple regression analysis indicated confidence as the only significant predictor of flow. The results confirmed a protective function of confidence against debilitating anxiety interpretations, but there were no significant interaction effects between confidence and anxiety on flow state.

  13. Tobacco companies' efforts to undermine ingredient disclosure: the Massachusetts benchmark study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velicer, Clayton; Aguinaga-Bialous, Stella; Glantz, Stanton

    2016-09-01

    To assess the 'Massachusetts Benchmark Study' (MBS) that the tobacco companies presented to the Massachusetts Department of Public Health (MDPH) in 1999 in response to ingredient disclosure regulations in the state. This case study can inform future ingredient disclosure regulations, including implementation of Articles 9 and 10 of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC). We analysed documents available at http://legacy.library.ucsf.edu to identify internal communications regarding the design and execution of the MBS and internal studies on the relationship between tar, nicotine and carbon monoxide and smoke constituents and reviewed publications that further evaluated data published as part of the MBS. The companies conducted extensive studies of cigarette design factors and ingredients that significantly impacted the levels of constituents. While this study asserted that by-brand emissions could be estimated reliably from published tar, nicotine, and carbon monoxide levels, the tobacco companies were well aware that factors beyond tar, nicotine and carbon monoxide influenced levels of constituents included in the study. This severely limited the potential usefulness of the MBS predictor equations. Despite promises to provide data that would allow regulators to predict constituent data for all brands on the market, the final MBS results offered no useful predictive information to inform regulators, the scientific community or consumers. When implementing FCTC Articles 9 and 10, regulatory agencies should demand detailed by-brand information on tobacco product constituents and toxin deliveries to users. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  14. Simulation Suggests that medical group mergers won't undermine the potential utility of health information exchanges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudin, Robert S; Schneider, Eric C; Volk, Lynn A; Szolovits, Peter; Salzberg, Claudia A; Simon, Steven R; Bates, David W

    2012-03-01

    Federal and state agencies are investing substantial resources in the creation of community health information exchanges, which are consortia that enable independent health care organizations to exchange clinical data. However, under pressure to form accountable care organizations, medical groups may merge and support private health information exchanges. Such activity could reduce the potential utility of community exchanges-that is, the exchanges' capacity to share patient data across hospitals and physician practices that are independent. Simulations of care transitions based on data from ten Massachusetts communities suggest that there would have to be many such mergers to undermine the potential utility of health information exchanges. At the same time, because hospitals and the largest medical groups account for only 10-20 percent of care transitions in a community, information exchanges will still need to recruit a large proportion of the medical groups in a given community for the exchanges to maintain their usefulness in fostering information exchange across independent providers.

  15. On the psychological barriers to the workplace: when and why metastereotyping undermines employability beliefs of women and ethnic minorities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owuamalam, Chuma Kevin; Zagefka, Hanna

    2014-10-01

    We investigated the effect of how one might expect one's group to be viewed by a dominant outgroup (i.e., metastereotypes) on employability beliefs of members of disadvantaged groups. Based on the extensive literature on stereotype threat, we hypothesized that activating negative metastereotypes would undermine employability beliefs of members of disadvantaged groups, because such beliefs are likely to threaten their state self-esteem. In particular, we expected that an effect of negative metastereotyping on employability beliefs would be explained by momentary self-doubts and be particularly evident among members whose dispositional self-esteem is high rather than low to begin with. Taken jointly, results from a correlational study (n = 80) and an experimental study (n = 56) supported these hypotheses, and discussion focuses on their implications for mobility into the workplace. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved).

  16. A Question of Social Justice: How Policies of Profit Negate Engagement of Developing World Bioethicists and Undermine Global Bioethics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chattopadhyay, Subrata; Myser, Catherine; Moxham, Tiffany; De Vries, Raymond

    2017-10-01

    We identify the ways the policies of leading international bioethics journals limit the participation of researchers working in the resource-constrained settings of low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) in the development of the field of bioethics. Lack of access to essential scholarly resources makes it extremely difficult, if not impossible, for many LMIC bioethicists to learn from, meaningfully engage in, and further contribute to the global bioethics discourse. Underrepresentation of LMIC perspectives in leading journals sustains the hegemony of Western bioethics, limits the presentation of diverse moral visions of life, health, and medicine, and undermines aspirations to create a truly "global" bioethics. Limited attention to this problem indicates a lack of empathy and moral imagination on the part of bioethicists in high-income countries, raises questions about the ethics of bioethics, and highlights the urgent need to find ways to remedy this social injustice.

  17. Parallel pocket incision: Less invasive surgical intervention for the treatment of intractable pressure ulcer with wound edge undermining.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamamoto, Takumi; Yoshimatsu, Hidehiko; Hayashi, Akitatsu; Koshima, Isao

    2015-10-01

    The treatment of deep pressure ulcer with a wide wound edge undermining (pocket) is challenging, especially when conservative treatments are ineffective. As most patients with a pressure ulcer suffer from systemic comorbidities, invasive surgery cannot be performed on all patients, and less invasive treatment is required. Less invasive surgical intervention to a deep pressure ulcer, parallel pocket incision (PPI), was performed on 10 patients with intractable pressure ulcers with a pocket formation. In PPI procedures, two parallel skin incisions were made to open up the deepest fold of the pocket and to preserve the skin overlying the pocket lesion; through the created incisions, the necrotic tissues around the deepest fold of the undermining could be easily removed, which facilitated spontaneous wound healing. Postoperative results and complications were evaluated. All PPI procedures were safely performed under local infiltration anesthesia without major postoperative complication; minor bleeding was seen intraoperatively in three patients, which could be easily controlled with electric cautery coagulation. Nine of 10 ulcers were cured after PPI, and one could not be followed up due to the patient's death non-related to the pressure ulcer. For the nine cured patients, the average time for cure was 14.9 weeks, and no recurrence was observed at postoperative 6 months. PPI is a simple, technically easy, and less invasive surgical intervention to an intractable pressure ulcer with a pocket, which can be safely performed under local infiltration anesthesia even on a patient with severe systemic comorbidities. Copyright © 2015 British Association of Plastic, Reconstructive and Aesthetic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Challenging the Cancer Molecular Stratification Dogma: Intratumoral Heterogeneity Undermines Consensus Molecular Subtypes and Potential Diagnostic Value in Colorectal Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunne, Philip D; McArt, Darragh G; Bradley, Conor A; O'Reilly, Paul G; Barrett, Helen L; Cummins, Robert; O'Grady, Tony; Arthur, Ken; Loughrey, Maurice B; Allen, Wendy L; McDade, Simon S; Waugh, David J; Hamilton, Peter W; Longley, Daniel B; Kay, Elaine W; Johnston, Patrick G; Lawler, Mark; Salto-Tellez, Manuel; Van Schaeybroeck, Sandra

    2016-08-15

    A number of independent gene expression profiling studies have identified transcriptional subtypes in colorectal cancer with potential diagnostic utility, culminating in publication of a colorectal cancer Consensus Molecular Subtype classification. The worst prognostic subtype has been defined by genes associated with stem-like biology. Recently, it has been shown that the majority of genes associated with this poor prognostic group are stromal derived. We investigated the potential for tumor misclassification into multiple diagnostic subgroups based on tumoral region sampled. We performed multiregion tissue RNA extraction/transcriptomic analysis using colorectal-specific arrays on invasive front, central tumor, and lymph node regions selected from tissue samples from 25 colorectal cancer patients. We identified a consensus 30-gene list, which represents the intratumoral heterogeneity within a cohort of primary colorectal cancer tumors. Using a series of online datasets, we showed that this gene list displays prognostic potential HR = 2.914 (confidence interval 0.9286-9.162) in stage II/III colorectal cancer patients, but in addition, we demonstrated that these genes are stromal derived, challenging the assumption that poor prognosis tumors with stem-like biology have undergone a widespread epithelial-mesenchymal transition. Most importantly, we showed that patients can be simultaneously classified into multiple diagnostically relevant subgroups based purely on the tumoral region analyzed. Gene expression profiles derived from the nonmalignant stromal region can influence assignment of colorectal cancer transcriptional subtypes, questioning the current molecular classification dogma and highlighting the need to consider pathology sampling region and degree of stromal infiltration when employing transcription-based classifiers to underpin clinical decision making in colorectal cancer. Clin Cancer Res; 22(16); 4095-104. ©2016 AACRSee related commentary by Morris and

  19. What is 'confidence' and what could affect it?: A qualitative study of mothers who are hesitant about vaccines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendel-Van Alstyne, Judith A; Nowak, Glen J; Aikin, Ann L

    2017-09-09

    Public confidence in immunization is critical to maintaining high vaccine-coverage rates needed to protect individuals and communities from vaccine-preventable diseases. Recent attention has been placed on factors influencing confidence in vaccination in the US and globally, but comprehensive understanding of what drives or hinders confidence in childhood vaccination is yet to be reached. As such, assessing parents' confidence in childhood vaccination and the ways in which educational materials affect confidence is needed. We sought to (1) learn how mothers who are hesitant about vaccination characterize confidence in health-related products for young children, including the recommended vaccines; (2) gain insights on what influences vaccine confidence beliefs; and (3) assess whether short, education materials affect parental confidence in childhood vaccinations. Eight moderator-lead focus groups (n=61), stratified by socioeconomic status, were undertaken with mothers of children 5years of age of less who are hesitant about vaccines. Four of the groups were held in the Philadelphia, PA area and four were held in the San Francisco/Oakland, CA area. Three educational material pairs, each consisting of a 2-3min video and an infographic poster about an immunization-related topic, were reviewed and assessed for influence on confidence. Qualitative data analysis was used to identify overarching themes across the focus groups. Themes, insights, and illustrative quotes were identified and provided for each of the major discussion areas: primary health concerns for young children; confidence beliefs and perceptions, including for recommended vaccines; facilitators and barriers to confidence; and reactions to the educational materials. Results provide helpful insights into how mothers who are hesitant about vaccines perceive confidence in childhood vaccines and health-related products, suggestions for how to improve confidence, and support for the value and use of short

  20. Beyond hypercorrection: remembering corrective feedback for low-confidence errors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffiths, Lauren; Higham, Philip A

    2018-02-01

    Correcting errors based on corrective feedback is essential to successful learning. Previous studies have found that corrections to high-confidence errors are better remembered than low-confidence errors (the hypercorrection effect). The aim of this study was to investigate whether corrections to low-confidence errors can also be successfully retained in some cases. Participants completed an initial multiple-choice test consisting of control, trick and easy general-knowledge questions, rated their confidence after answering each question, and then received immediate corrective feedback. After a short delay, they were given a cued-recall test consisting of the same questions. In two experiments, we found high-confidence errors to control questions were better corrected on the second test compared to low-confidence errors - the typical hypercorrection effect. However, low-confidence errors to trick questions were just as likely to be corrected as high-confidence errors. Most surprisingly, we found that memory for the feedback and original responses, not confidence or surprise, were significant predictors of error correction. We conclude that for some types of material, there is an effortful process of elaboration and problem solving prior to making low-confidence errors that facilitates memory of corrective feedback.

  1. Factors affecting midwives' confidence in intrapartum care: a phenomenological study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bedwell, Carol; McGowan, Linda; Lavender, Tina

    2015-01-01

    midwives are frequently the lead providers of care for women throughout labour and birth. In order to perform their role effectively and provide women with the choices they require midwives need to be confident in their practice. This study explores factors which may affect midwives' confidence in their practice. hermeneutic phenomenology formed the theoretical basis for the study. Prospective longitudinal data collection was completed using diaries and semi-structured interviews. Twelve midwives providing intrapartum care in a variety of settings were recruited to ensure a variety of experiences in different contexts were captured. the principal factor affecting workplace confidence, both positively and negatively, was the influence of colleagues. Perceived autonomy and a sense of familiarity could also enhance confidence. However, conflict in the workplace was a critical factor in reducing midwives' confidence. Confidence was an important, but fragile, phenomenon to midwives and they used a variety of coping strategies, emotional intelligence and presentation management to maintain it. this is the first study to highlight both the factors influencing midwives' workplace confidence and the strategies midwives employed to maintain their confidence. Confidence is important in maintaining well-being and workplace culture may play a role in explaining the current low morale within the midwifery workforce. This may have implications for women's choices and care. Support, effective leadership and education may help midwives develop and sustain a positive sense of confidence. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. South African propaganda agencies and the battle for public opinion ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    South Africa's entry into the Second World War in 1939 was complex. The Smuts government lacked nation-wide support and experienced hostile reactions from opponents of its war policy. It was also subjected to Nazi propaganda offensives, which intensified national divisions and undermined public morale. In response ...

  3. 'Asking the hard questions': Improving midwifery students' confidence with domestic violence screening in pregnancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Rachel; Wight, Raechel; Homer, Caroline S E

    2018-01-01

    Domestic violence is a global public health issue. Midwives are ideally placed to screen for, and respond to, disclosure of domestic violence. Qualified midwives and midwifery students report a lack of preparedness and low levels of confidence in working with women who disclose domestic violence. This paper reports the findings from an education intervention designed to increase midwifery students' confidence in working with pregnant women who disclose domestic violence. An authentic practice video and associated interactive workshop was developed to bring the 'woman' into the classroom and to provide role-modelling of exemplary midwifery practice in screening for and responding to disclosure of domestic violence. The findings demonstrated that students' confidence increased in a number of target areas, such as responding appropriately to disclosure and assisting women with access to support. Students' confidence increased in areas where responses needed to be individualised as opposed to being able to be scripted. Students appreciated visual demonstration (video of authentic practice) and having the opportunity to practise responding to disclosures through experiential learning. Given the general lack of confidence reported by both midwives and students of midwifery in this area of practice, this strategy may be useful in supporting midwives, students and other health professionals in increasing confidence in working with women who are experiencing domestic violence. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Can confidence indicators forecast the probability of expansion in Croatia?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirjana Čižmešija

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to investigate how reliable are confidence indicators in forecasting the probability of expansion. We consider three Croatian Business Survey indicators: the Industrial Confidence Indicator (ICI, the Construction Confidence Indicator (BCI and the Retail Trade Confidence Indicator (RTCI. The quarterly data, used in the research, covered the periods from 1999/Q1 to 2014/Q1. Empirical analysis consists of two parts. The non-parametric Bry-Boschan algorithm is used for distinguishing periods of expansion from the period of recession in the Croatian economy. Then, various nonlinear probit models were estimated. The models differ with respect to the regressors (confidence indicators and the time lags. The positive signs of estimated parameters suggest that the probability of expansion increases with an increase in Confidence Indicators. Based on the obtained results, the conclusion is that ICI is the most powerful predictor of the probability of expansion in Croatia.

  5. Confidence mediates the sex difference in mental rotation performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estes, Zachary; Felker, Sydney

    2012-06-01

    On tasks that require the mental rotation of 3-dimensional figures, males typically exhibit higher accuracy than females. Using the most common measure of mental rotation (i.e., the Mental Rotations Test), we investigated whether individual variability in confidence mediates this sex difference in mental rotation performance. In each of four experiments, the sex difference was reliably elicited and eliminated by controlling or manipulating participants' confidence. Specifically, confidence predicted performance within and between sexes (Experiment 1), rendering confidence irrelevant to the task reliably eliminated the sex difference in performance (Experiments 2 and 3), and manipulating confidence significantly affected performance (Experiment 4). Thus, confidence mediates the sex difference in mental rotation performance and hence the sex difference appears to be a difference of performance rather than ability. Results are discussed in relation to other potential mediators and mechanisms, such as gender roles, sex stereotypes, spatial experience, rotation strategies, working memory, and spatial attention.

  6. Coping skills: role of trait sport confidence and trait anxiety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cresswell, Scott; Hodge, Ken

    2004-04-01

    The current research assesses relationships among coping skills, trait sport confidence, and trait anxiety. Two samples (n=47 and n=77) of international competitors from surf life saving (M=23.7 yr.) and touch rugby (M=26.2 yr.) completed the Athletic Coping Skills Inventory, Trait Sport Confidence Inventory, and Sport Anxiety Scale. Analysis yielded significant correlations amongst trait anxiety, sport confidence, and coping. Specifically confidence scores were positively associated with coping with adversity scores and anxiety scores were negatively associated. These findings support the inclusion of the personality characteristics of confidence and anxiety within the coping model presented by Hardy, Jones, and Gould, Researchers should be aware that confidence and anxiety may influence the coping processes of athletes.

  7. Is consumer confidence an indicator of JSE performance?

    OpenAIRE

    Kamini Solanki; Yudhvir Seetharam

    2014-01-01

    While most studies examine the impact of business confidence on market performance, we instead focus on the consumer because consumer spending habits are a natural extension of trading activity on the equity market. This particular study examines investor sentiment as measured by the Consumer Confidence Index in South Africa and its effect on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). We employ Granger causality tests to investigate the relationship across time between the Consumer Confidence Ind...

  8. R and D versus confidence in a nuclear energy producing country

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Castellnou Barcelo, Josep

    2006-01-01

    The author, Mayor of Vandellos and L'Hospitalet de L'Infant in Spain, addressed the linkages of R and D and stakeholder confidence from the perspective of a mayor. His presentation drew on his experience as mayor of nuclear community in Vandellos and Hospitalet, Spain. The author began by reviewing the economic profile of his community and the chronology of the nuclear program in that area. In discussing factors influencing trust and confidence at the local level, it was noted that safety and security were key, (not negotiable). Economic development and prospects for the future were also seen as important pillars for building public confidence. Cutting across these areas, was a role for R and D and information. It was important to provide information to the public, and to communicate effectively around issues of risk and security. R and D plays a role in supporting these activities to generate confidence. There were active training and education initiatives for elected officials and citizens and other stakeholders, which included local participation in site visits. Education on matters of nuclear energy was provided, seminars and technical visits. The community participated in the COWAM project, to benefit from the exchange of information internationally. In addition, local information committees were created that play an important role in ensuring a flow of information to the general public. The local level has access to experts to support their activities. The presentation profiled the ways in which the municipality retains an active role in overseeing the decommissioning of the local nuclear plant. The presentation reviewed areas in which R and D provided linkages to future well-being of the municipality, through professional training, linkages with universities, promotion of culture and business and economic diversification. Research in social disciplines is found to be important in building confidence of the public

  9. Preservice teachers' perceived confidence in teaching school violence prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kandakai, Tina L; King, Keith A

    2002-01-01

    To examine preservice teachers' perceived confidence in teaching violence prevention and the potential effect of violence-prevention training on preservice teachers' confidence in teaching violence prevention. Six Ohio universities participated in the study. More than 800 undergraduate and graduate students completed surveys. Violence-prevention training, area of certification, and location of student- teaching placement significantly influenced preservice teachers' perceived confidence in teaching violence prevention. Violence-prevention training positively influences preservice teachers' confidence in teaching violence prevention. The results suggest that such training should be considered as a requirement for teacher preparation programs.

  10. The antecedents and belief-polarized effects of thought confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chou, Hsuan-Yi; Lien, Nai-Hwa; Liang, Kuan-Yu

    2011-01-01

    This article investigates 2 possible antecedents of thought confidence and explores the effects of confidence induced before or during ad exposure. The results of the experiments indicate that both consumers' dispositional optimism and spokesperson attractiveness have significant effects on consumers' confidence in thoughts that are generated after viewing the advertisement. Higher levels of thought confidence will influence the quality of the thoughts that people generate, lead to either positively or negatively polarized message processing, and therefore induce better or worse advertising effectiveness, depending on the valence of thoughts. The authors posit the belief-polarization hypothesis to explain these findings.

  11. 10. national workshop of the NEA Forum on Stakeholder Confidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, Kamishan; )

    2017-01-01

    The Forum on Stakeholder Confidence (FSC) was established by the NEA Radioactive Waste Management Committee (RWMC) in the year 2000. It fosters learning about stakeholder dialogue and ways to develop shared confidence, informed consent and acceptance of radioactive waste (RW) management solutions. A 'stakeholder' is defined as anyone with a role to play or an interest in the process of deciding about RW management. The FSC provides a setting for direct stakeholder exchange in an atmosphere of mutual respect and learning. Participating in this forum are government policy and regulatory officials, R and D specialists, implementers, and industry representatives from NEA member countries. Together they analyse, document and provide recommendations on today's and tomorrow's processes for embedding waste management programs into a socio-political decision-making context. The FSC convenes annually for a regular meeting and is often complemented by an FSC national workshop. The regular meetings include lectures and topical case study sessions to share experiences. FSC national workshops are organised in volunteer NEA member countries to bring together all the national stakeholders to provide a neutral ground for discussion, dialogue and advancement of knowledge on long-term radioactive waste management. FSC members and other international actors involved in RW management are invited to learn about the host country's waste management program and provide support by giving an external reflection built up on their own experience. They are often supplemented by a half a day devoted to a community visit (potential or selected site for a repository) or open event (public meeting or debate). 2016 marked the 10. national workshop of the FSC which took place in Switzerland. It focused on 'Bridging Gaps - Developing Sustainable Inter-generational Decision-making in Radioactive Waste Management'. The workshop provided a forum for the participants from around the world to learn from

  12. A Public Relations Nightmare: ACLU Class Action Lawsuit Exposes Inaccurate and Inequitable High School Graduation Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Terri N.; Brown, Kathleen M.

    2010-01-01

    Florida's decision to equate a GED to a high school diploma undermines the attempt of No Child Left Behind to close the achievement gap, while infringing on the public's trust. Public trust fosters a culture of systemic equity and social justice, which are necessary for academic excellence (Byrk & Schneider, 2003). Florida's code of ethics for…

  13. 'Just a GP': a mixed method study of undermining of general practice as a career choice in the UK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alberti, Hugh; Banner, Kimberley; Collingwood, Helen; Merritt, Kymberlee

    2017-11-03

    Failure to recruit sufficient applicants to general practice (GP) training has been a problem both nationally and internationally for many years and undermining of GP is one possible contributing factor. The aim of our study was to ascertain what comments, both negative and positive, are being made in UK clinical settings to GP trainees about GP and to further explore these comments and their influence on career choice. We conducted a mixed methods study. We surveyed all foundation doctors and GP trainees within one region of Health Education England regarding any comments they experienced relating to a career in GP. We also conducted six focus groups with early GP trainees to discuss any comments that they experienced and whether these comments had any influence on their or others career choice. Positive comments reported by trainees centred around the concept that choosing GP is a positive, family-focused choice which facilities a good work-life balance. Workload was the most common negative comment, alongside the notion of being 'just a GP'; the belief that GP is boring, a waste of training and a second-class career choice. The reasons for and origin of the comments are multifactorial in nature. Thematic analysis of the focus groups identified key factors such as previous exposure to and experience of GP, family members who were GPs, GP role models, demographics of the clinician and referral behaviour. Trainees perceived that negative comments may be discouraging others from choosing GP as a career. Our study demonstrates that negative comments towards GP as a career do exist within clinical settings and are having a potential impact on poor recruitment rates to GP training. We have identified areas in which further negative comments could be prevented by changing perceptions of GP as a career. Additional time spent in GP as undergraduates and postgraduates, and positive GP role models, could particularly benefit recruitment. We recommend that undermining of GP

  14. Animal Spirits and Extreme Confidence: No Guts, No Glory?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.G. Douwens-Zonneveld (Mariska)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractThis study investigates to what extent extreme confidence of either management or security analysts may impact financial or operating performance. We construct a multidimensional degree of company confidence measure from a wide range of corporate decisions. We empirically test this

  15. True and False Memories, Parietal Cortex, and Confidence Judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urgolites, Zhisen J.; Smith, Christine N.; Squire, Larry R.

    2015-01-01

    Recent studies have asked whether activity in the medial temporal lobe (MTL) and the neocortex can distinguish true memory from false memory. A frequent complication has been that the confidence associated with correct memory judgments (true memory) is typically higher than the confidence associated with incorrect memory judgments (false memory).…

  16. The Metamemory Approach to Confidence: A Test Using Semantic Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brewer, William F.; Sampaio, Cristina

    2012-01-01

    The metamemory approach to memory confidence was extended and elaborated to deal with semantic memory tasks. The metamemory approach assumes that memory confidence is based on the products and processes of a completed memory task, as well as metamemory beliefs that individuals have about how their memory products and processes relate to memory…

  17. Confidence Sharing in the Vocational Counselling Interview: Emergence and Repercussions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olry-Louis, Isabelle; Bremond, Capucine; Pouliot, Manon

    2012-01-01

    Confidence sharing is an asymmetrical dialogic episode to which both parties consent, in which one reveals something personal to the other who participates in the emergence and unfolding of the confidence. We describe how this is achieved at a discursive level within vocational counselling interviews. Based on a corpus of 64 interviews, we analyse…

  18. A scale for consumer confidence in the safety of food

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonge, de J.; Trijp, van J.C.M.; Lans, van der I.A.; Renes, R.J.; Frewer, L.J.

    2008-01-01

    The aim of this study was to develop and validate a scale to measure general consumer confidence in the safety of food. Results from exploratory and confirmatory analyses indicate that general consumer confidence in the safety of food consists of two distinct dimensions, optimism and pessimism,

  19. Confidence Scoring of Speaking Performance: How Does Fuzziness become Exact?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Tan; Mak, Barley; Zhou, Pei

    2012-01-01

    The fuzziness of assessing second language speaking performance raises two difficulties in scoring speaking performance: "indistinction between adjacent levels" and "overlap between scales". To address these two problems, this article proposes a new approach, "confidence scoring", to deal with such fuzziness, leading to "confidence" scores between…

  20. Monitoring consumer confidence in food safety: an exploratory study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonge, de J.; Frewer, L.J.; Trijp, van J.C.M.; Renes, R.J.; Wit, de W.; Timmers, J.C.M.

    2004-01-01

    Abstract: In response to the potential for negative economic and societal effects resulting from a low level of consumer confidence in food safety, it is important to know how confidence is potentially influenced by external events. The aim of this article is to describe the development of a monitor

  1. Modeling Confidence and Response Time in Recognition Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ratcliff, Roger; Starns, Jeffrey J.

    2009-01-01

    A new model for confidence judgments in recognition memory is presented. In the model, the match between a single test item and memory produces a distribution of evidence, with better matches corresponding to distributions with higher means. On this match dimension, confidence criteria are placed, and the areas between the criteria under the…

  2. Music educators : their artistry and self-confidence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lion-Slovak, Brigitte; Stöger, Christine; Smilde, Rineke; Malmberg, Isolde; de Vugt, Adri

    2013-01-01

    How does artistic identity influence the self-confidence of music educators? What is the interconnection between the artistic and the teacher identity? What is actually meant by artistic identity in music education? What is a fruitful environment for the development of artistic self-confidence of

  3. Confidence bounds for normal and lognormal distribution coefficients of variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steve Verrill

    2003-01-01

    This paper compares the so-called exact approach for obtaining confidence intervals on normal distribution coefficients of variation to approximate methods. Approximate approaches were found to perform less well than the exact approach for large coefficients of variation and small sample sizes. Web-based computer programs are described for calculating confidence...

  4. Improved realism of confidence for an episodic memory event

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandra Buratti

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available We asked whether people can make their confidence judgments more realistic (accurate by adjusting them, with the aim of improving the relationship between the level of confidence and the correctness of the answer. This adjustment can be considered to include a so-called second-order metacognitive judgment. The participants first gave confidence judgments about their answers to questions about a video clip they had just watched. Next, they attempted to increase their accuracy by identifying confidence judgments in need of adjustment and then modifying them. The participants managed to increase their metacognitive realism, thus decreasing their absolute bias and improving their calibration, although the effects were small. We also examined the relationship between confidence judgments that were adjusted and the retrieval fluency and the phenomenological memory quality participants experienced when first answering the questions; this quality was one of either Remember (associated with concrete, vivid details or Know (associated with a feeling of familiarity. Confidence judgments associated with low retrieval fluency and the memory quality of knowing were modified more often. In brief, our results provide evidence that people can improve the realism of their confidence judgments, mainly by decreasing their confidence for incorrect answers. Thus, this study supports the conclusion that people can perform successful second-order metacognitive judgments.

  5. Variance misperception explains illusions of confidence in simple perceptual decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zylberberg, Ariel; Roelfsema, Pieter R.; Sigman, Mariano

    2014-01-01

    Confidence in a perceptual decision is a judgment about the quality of the sensory evidence. The quality of the evidence depends not only on its strength ('signal') but critically on its reliability ('noise'), but the separate contribution of these quantities to the formation of confidence judgments

  6. On-line confidence monitoring during decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dotan, Dror; Meyniel, Florent; Dehaene, Stanislas

    2018-02-01

    Humans can readily assess their degree of confidence in their decisions. Two models of confidence computation have been proposed: post hoc computation using post-decision variables and heuristics, versus online computation using continuous assessment of evidence throughout the decision-making process. Here, we arbitrate between these theories by continuously monitoring finger movements during a manual sequential decision-making task. Analysis of finger kinematics indicated that subjects kept separate online records of evidence and confidence: finger deviation continuously reflected the ongoing accumulation of evidence, whereas finger speed continuously reflected the momentary degree of confidence. Furthermore, end-of-trial finger speed predicted the post-decisional subjective confidence rating. These data indicate that confidence is computed on-line, throughout the decision process. Speed-confidence correlations were previously interpreted as a post-decision heuristics, whereby slow decisions decrease subjective confidence, but our results suggest an adaptive mechanism that involves the opposite causality: by slowing down when unconfident, participants gain time to improve their decisions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. A simultaneous confidence band for sparse longitudinal regression

    KAUST Repository

    Ma, Shujie; Yang, Lijian; Carroll, Raymond J.

    2012-01-01

    Functional data analysis has received considerable recent attention and a number of successful applications have been reported. In this paper, asymptotically simultaneous confidence bands are obtained for the mean function of the functional regression model, using piecewise constant spline estimation. Simulation experiments corroborate the asymptotic theory. The confidence band procedure is illustrated by analyzing CD4 cell counts of HIV infected patients.

  8. Multivoxel neurofeedback selectively modulates confidence without changing perceptual performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cortese, Aurelio; Amano, Kaoru; Koizumi, Ai; Kawato, Mitsuo; Lau, Hakwan

    2016-01-01

    A central controversy in metacognition studies concerns whether subjective confidence directly reflects the reliability of perceptual or cognitive processes, as suggested by normative models based on the assumption that neural computations are generally optimal. This view enjoys popularity in the computational and animal literatures, but it has also been suggested that confidence may depend on a late-stage estimation dissociable from perceptual processes. Yet, at least in humans, experimental tools have lacked the power to resolve these issues convincingly. Here, we overcome this difficulty by using the recently developed method of decoded neurofeedback (DecNef) to systematically manipulate multivoxel correlates of confidence in a frontoparietal network. Here we report that bi-directional changes in confidence do not affect perceptual accuracy. Further psychophysical analyses rule out accounts based on simple shifts in reporting strategy. Our results provide clear neuroscientific evidence for the systematic dissociation between confidence and perceptual performance, and thereby challenge current theoretical thinking. PMID:27976739

  9. Maternal Confidence for Physiologic Childbirth: A Concept Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neerland, Carrie E

    2018-06-06

    Confidence is a term often used in research literature and consumer media in relation to birth, but maternal confidence has not been clearly defined, especially as it relates to physiologic labor and birth. The aim of this concept analysis was to define maternal confidence in the context of physiologic labor and childbirth. Rodgers' evolutionary method was used to identify attributes, antecedents, and consequences of maternal confidence for physiologic birth. Databases searched included Ovid MEDLINE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, and Sociological Abstracts from the years 1995 to 2015. A total of 505 articles were retrieved, using the search terms pregnancy, obstetric care, prenatal care, and self-efficacy and the keyword confidence. Articles were identified for in-depth review and inclusion based on whether the term confidence was used or assessed in relationship to labor and/or birth. In addition, a hand search of the reference lists of the selected articles was performed. Twenty-four articles were reviewed in this concept analysis. We define maternal confidence for physiologic birth as a woman's belief that physiologic birth can be achieved, based on her view of birth as a normal process and her belief in her body's innate ability to birth, which is supported by social support, knowledge, and information founded on a trusted relationship with a maternity care provider in an environment where the woman feels safe. This concept analysis advances the concept of maternal confidence for physiologic birth and provides new insight into how women's confidence for physiologic birth might be enhanced during the prenatal period. Further investigation of confidence for physiologic birth across different cultures is needed to identify cultural differences in constructions of the concept. © 2018 by the American College of Nurse-Midwives.

  10. Jedi Public Health: Co-creating an Identity-Safe Culture to Promote Health Equity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geronimus, Arline T; James, Sherman A; Destin, Mesmin; Graham, Louis A; Hatzenbuehler, Mark; Murphy, Mary; Pearson, Jay A; Omari, Amel; Thompson, James Phillip

    2016-12-01

    The extent to which socially-assigned and culturally mediated social identity affects health depends on contingencies of social identity that vary across and within populations in day-to-day life. These contingencies are structurally rooted and health damaging inasmuch as they activate physiological stress responses. They also have adverse effects on cognition and emotion, undermining self-confidence and diminishing academic performance. This impact reduces opportunities for social mobility, while ensuring those who "beat the odds" pay a physical price for their positive efforts. Recent applications of social identity theory toward closing racial, ethnic, and gender academic achievement gaps through changing features of educational settings, rather than individual students, have proved fruitful. We sought to integrate this evidence with growing social epidemiological evidence that structurally-rooted biopsychosocial processes have population health effects. We explicate an emergent framework, Jedi Public Health (JPH). JPH focuses on changing features of settings in everyday life, rather than individuals, to promote population health equity, a high priority, yet, elusive national public health objective. We call for an expansion and, in some ways, a re-orienting of efforts to eliminate population health inequity. Policies and interventions to remove and replace discrediting cues in everyday settings hold promise for disrupting the repeated physiological stress process activation that fuels population health inequities with potentially wide application.

  11. Jedi public health: Co-creating an identity-safe culture to promote health equity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arline T. Geronimus

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The extent to which socially-assigned and culturally mediated social identity affects health depends on contingencies of social identity that vary across and within populations in day-to-day life. These contingencies are structurally rooted and health damaging inasmuch as they activate physiological stress responses. They also have adverse effects on cognition and emotion, undermining self-confidence and diminishing academic performance. This impact reduces opportunities for social mobility, while ensuring those who ''beat the odds'' pay a physical price for their positive efforts. Recent applications of social identity theory toward closing racial, ethnic, and gender academic achievement gaps through changing features of educational settings, rather than individual students, have proved fruitful. We sought to integrate this evidence with growing social epidemiological evidence that structurally-rooted biopsychosocial processes have population health effects. We explicate an emergent framework, Jedi Public Health (JPH. JPH focuses on changing features of settings in everyday life, rather than individuals, to promote population health equity, a high priority, yet, elusive national public health objective. We call for an expansion and, in some ways, a re-orienting of efforts to eliminate population health inequity. Policies and interventions to remove and replace discrediting cues in everyday settings hold promise for disrupting the repeated physiological stress process activation that fuels population health inequities with potentially wide application. Keywords: Population health, Health equity, Social identity, Race/ethnicity, LGBTQ, Gender, Stereotype threat, Weathering

  12. Suicide-Related Knowledge and Confidence Among Behavioral Health Care Staff in Seven States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Caroline; Smith, April R; Dodd, Dorian R; Covington, David W; Joiner, Thomas E

    2016-11-01

    Death by suicide is a serious and growing public health concern in the United States. This noncontrolled, naturalistic study examined professionals' knowledge about suicide and confidence in working with suicidal individuals, comparing those who had received either of two gatekeeper trainings-Question, Persuade, and Refer (QPR) or Applied Suicide Intervention Skills Training (ASIST)-or other suicide-relevant training or no training. Participants (N=16,693) were individuals in various professional roles in the field of behavioral health care in Indiana, Kentucky, New York, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Texas, and Utah. Participants completed a survey assessing suicide knowledge and skills confidence. Most participants (52.9%) reported no previous suicide prevention or assessment training. Individuals with suicide-relevant training demonstrated greater suicide knowledge and confidence than those with no such training. Among those who had received any training, no differences were found in suicide knowledge; however, individuals who had received ASIST reported greater confidence in working with suicidal individuals, compared with those who had received other training. Professional role and prior experience with a client who had died by suicide had significant positive relationships with suicide knowledge and confidence. Regional differences emerged between states and are examined within the context of statewide suicide prevention initiatives. Increasing access to and incentives for participating in suicide-relevant training among behavioral health care staff may foster a more knowledgeable and confident group of gatekeepers. Future research should examine whether increases in knowledge and confidence among staff translate into actual changes in practice that help protect and serve at-risk individuals.

  13. Female Choice Undermines the Emergence of Strong Sexual Isolation between Locally Adapted Populations of Atlantic Mollies (Poecilia mexicana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Zimmer

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Divergent selection between ecologically dissimilar habitats promotes local adaptation, which can lead to reproductive isolation (RI. Populations in the Poecilia mexicana species complex have independently adapted to toxic hydrogen sulfide and show varying degrees of RI. Here, we examined the variation in the mate choice component of prezygotic RI. Mate choice tests across drainages (with stimulus males from another drainage suggest that specific features of the males coupled with a general female preference for yellow color patterns explain the observed variation. Analyses of male body coloration identified the intensity of yellow fin coloration as a strong candidate to explain this pattern, and common-garden rearing suggested heritable population differences. Male sexual ornamentation apparently evolved differently across sulfide-adapted populations, for example because of differences in natural counterselection via predation. The ubiquitous preference for yellow color ornaments in poeciliid females likely undermines the emergence of strong RI, as female discrimination in favor of own males becomes weaker when yellow fin coloration in the respective sulfide ecotype increases. Our study illustrates the complexity of the (partly non-parallel pathways to divergence among replicated ecological gradients. We suggest that future work should identify the genomic loci involved in the pattern reported here, making use of the increasing genomic and transcriptomic datasets available for our study system.

  14. [Changes in workers' rehabilitation procedures under the Brazilian social security system: modernization or undermining of social protection?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takahashi, Mara Alice Batista Conti; Iguti, Aparecida Mari

    2008-11-01

    This article describes the changes in workers' rehabilitation practices under the Brazilian National Social Security Institute (INSS) in the 1990s, in the context of neoliberal economic adjustment measures, based on an analysis of INSS documents from 1992 to 1997. The INSS plan for "modernization" of workers' rehabilitation led to: (1) dismantling of multidisciplinary teams; (2) induction of workers to accept proportional retirement pensions and voluntary layoffs; (3) under-utilization of the remaining INSS professional staff; (4) elimination of treatment programs for workers' rehabilitation; and (5) dismantling of INSS rehabilitation centers and clinics. The changes in the Brazilian social security system undermined the county's social security project and hegemony and reduced social security reform to a mere management and fiscal issue. Current "rehabilitation" falls far short of the institution's original purpose of social protection for workers, while aiming at economic regulation of the system to contain costs of workers' benefits. Workers that suffer work-related accidents are denied occupational rehabilitation, which aggravates their social disadvantage when they return to work.

  15. Disconnections Between Teacher Expectations and Student Confidence in Bioethics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanegan, Nikki L.; Price, Laura; Peterson, Jeremy

    2008-09-01

    This study examines how student practice of scientific argumentation using socioscientific bioethics issues affects both teacher expectations of students’ general performance and student confidence in their own work. When teachers use bioethical issues in the classroom students can gain not only biology content knowledge but also important decision-making skills. Learning bioethics through scientific argumentation gives students opportunities to express their ideas, formulate educated opinions and value others’ viewpoints. Research has shown that science teachers’ expectations of student success and knowledge directly influence student achievement and confidence levels. Our study analyzes pre-course and post-course surveys completed by students enrolled in a university level bioethics course ( n = 111) and by faculty in the College of Biology and Agriculture faculty ( n = 34) based on their perceptions of student confidence. Additionally, student data were collected from classroom observations and interviews. Data analysis showed a disconnect between faculty and students perceptions of confidence for both knowledge and the use of science argumentation. Student reports of their confidence levels regarding various bioethical issues were higher than faculty reports. A further disconnect showed up between students’ preferred learning styles and the general faculty’s common teaching methods; students learned more by practicing scientific argumentation than listening to traditional lectures. Students who completed a bioethics course that included practice in scientific argumentation, significantly increased their confidence levels. This study suggests that professors’ expectations and teaching styles influence student confidence levels in both knowledge and scientific argumentation.

  16. Sex differences in confidence influence patterns of conformity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cross, Catharine P; Brown, Gillian R; Morgan, Thomas J H; Laland, Kevin N

    2017-11-01

    Lack of confidence in one's own ability can increase the likelihood of relying on social information. Sex differences in confidence have been extensively investigated in cognitive tasks, but implications for conformity have not been directly tested. Here, we tested the hypothesis that, in a task that shows sex differences in confidence, an indirect effect of sex on social information use will also be evident. Participants (N = 168) were administered a mental rotation (MR) task or a letter transformation (LT) task. After providing an answer, participants reported their confidence before seeing the responses of demonstrators and being allowed to change their initial answer. In the MR, but not the LT, task, women showed lower levels of confidence than men, and confidence mediated an indirect effect of sex on the likelihood of switching answers. These results provide novel, experimental evidence that confidence is a general explanatory mechanism underpinning susceptibility to social influences. Our results have implications for the interpretation of the wider literature on sex differences in conformity. © 2016 The British Psychological Society.

  17. Doubly Bayesian Analysis of Confidence in Perceptual Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aitchison, Laurence; Bang, Dan; Bahrami, Bahador; Latham, Peter E

    2015-10-01

    Humans stand out from other animals in that they are able to explicitly report on the reliability of their internal operations. This ability, which is known as metacognition, is typically studied by asking people to report their confidence in the correctness of some decision. However, the computations underlying confidence reports remain unclear. In this paper, we present a fully Bayesian method for directly comparing models of confidence. Using a visual two-interval forced-choice task, we tested whether confidence reports reflect heuristic computations (e.g. the magnitude of sensory data) or Bayes optimal ones (i.e. how likely a decision is to be correct given the sensory data). In a standard design in which subjects were first asked to make a decision, and only then gave their confidence, subjects were mostly Bayes optimal. In contrast, in a less-commonly used design in which subjects indicated their confidence and decision simultaneously, they were roughly equally likely to use the Bayes optimal strategy or to use a heuristic but suboptimal strategy. Our results suggest that, while people's confidence reports can reflect Bayes optimal computations, even a small unusual twist or additional element of complexity can prevent optimality.

  18. From a culture of caution to a culture of confidence: facilitating the good governance of administrative data in the UK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leslie Stevens

    2017-04-01

    We conclude by focussing on how to overcome the culture of caution, to one of confidence. We suggest the adoption of our decision-making matrix to help data custodians distinguish between real versus perceived barriers to data sharing (i.e. dispelling legal myths and identifying areas where changes can be made. We also introduce strategic solutions in our public interest mandate which entails overt commitment to use public sector data when it is in the public interest to do so.

  19. Food skills confidence and household gatekeepers' dietary practices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burton, Melissa; Reid, Mike; Worsley, Anthony; Mavondo, Felix

    2017-01-01

    Household food gatekeepers have the potential to influence the food attitudes and behaviours of family members, as they are mainly responsible for food-related tasks in the home. The aim of this study was to determine the role of gatekeepers' confidence in food-related skills and nutrition knowledge on food practices in the home. An online survey was completed by 1059 Australian dietary gatekeepers selected from the Global Market Insite (GMI) research database. Participants responded to questions about food acquisition and preparation behaviours, the home eating environment, perceptions and attitudes towards food, and demographics. Two-step cluster analysis was used to identify groups based on confidence regarding food skills and nutrition knowledge. Chi-square tests and one-way ANOVAs were used to compare the groups on the dependent variables. Three groups were identified: low confidence, moderate confidence and high confidence. Gatekeepers in the highest confidence group were significantly more likely to report lower body mass index (BMI), and indicate higher importance of fresh food products, vegetable prominence in meals, product information use, meal planning, perceived behavioural control and overall diet satisfaction. Gatekeepers in the lowest confidence group were significantly more likely to indicate more perceived barriers to healthy eating, report more time constraints and more impulse purchasing practices, and higher convenience ingredient use. Other smaller associations were also found. Household food gatekeepers with high food skills confidence were more likely to engage in several healthy food practices, while those with low food skills confidence were more likely to engage in unhealthy food practices. Food education strategies aimed at building food-skills and nutrition knowledge will enable current and future gatekeepers to make healthier food decisions for themselves and for their families. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Determining the confidence levels of sensor outputs using neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Broten, G S; Wood, H C [Saskatchewan Univ., Saskatoon, SK (Canada). Dept. of Electrical Engineering

    1996-12-31

    This paper describes an approach for determining the confidence level of a sensor output using multi-sensor arrays, sensor fusion and artificial neural networks. The authors have shown in previous work that sensor fusion and artificial neural networks can be used to learn the relationships between the outputs of an array of simulated partially selective sensors and the individual analyte concentrations in a mixture of analyses. Other researchers have shown that an array of partially selective sensors can be used to determine the individual gas concentrations in a gaseous mixture. The research reported in this paper shows that it is possible to extract confidence level information from an array of partially selective sensors using artificial neural networks. The confidence level of a sensor output is defined as a numeric value, ranging from 0% to 100%, that indicates the confidence associated with a output of a given sensor. A three layer back-propagation neural network was trained on a subset of the sensor confidence level space, and was tested for its ability to generalize, where the confidence level space is defined as all possible deviations from the correct sensor output. A learning rate of 0.1 was used and no momentum terms were used in the neural network. This research has shown that an artificial neural network can accurately estimate the confidence level of individual sensors in an array of partially selective sensors. This research has also shown that the neural network`s ability to determine the confidence level is influenced by the complexity of the sensor`s response and that the neural network is able to estimate the confidence levels even if more than one sensor is in error. The fundamentals behind this research could be applied to other configurations besides arrays of partially selective sensors, such as an array of sensors separated spatially. An example of such a configuration could be an array of temperature sensors in a tank that is not in

  1. The basis for confidence in the long-term safety of nuclear waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allen, C.J.; Whitaker, S.H.

    1993-07-01

    Confidence in the acceptability and the long-term safety of deep geological disposal draws strength from a number of sources: the technical approach, i.e., the use of multiple barriers for redundancy and defence in depth; the adoption of the observational approach to site characterization and to disposal vault design, construction, operation and, eventually, closure; the overall approach, which is based on ongoing review and incremental decision making; and, active and effective involvement of the public in this process

  2. A Poisson process approximation for generalized K-5 confidence regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arsham, H.; Miller, D. R.

    1982-01-01

    One-sided confidence regions for continuous cumulative distribution functions are constructed using empirical cumulative distribution functions and the generalized Kolmogorov-Smirnov distance. The band width of such regions becomes narrower in the right or left tail of the distribution. To avoid tedious computation of confidence levels and critical values, an approximation based on the Poisson process is introduced. This aproximation provides a conservative confidence region; moreover, the approximation error decreases monotonically to 0 as sample size increases. Critical values necessary for implementation are given. Applications are made to the areas of risk analysis, investment modeling, reliability assessment, and analysis of fault tolerant systems.

  3. Impact of the TEPCO incident on the public's attitude to nuclear power generation. Periodic survey No.3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kitada, Atsuko

    2003-01-01

    The impact of the TEPCO incident, was examined, using the data collected by public opinion polls on power generation, which have been conducted persistently since 1993. The survey revealed that there were no negative changes in the public's attitude overall (including their concerns about nuclear power accidents, their sense of danger of such accidents, the image of organizations involved in nuclear power generation, their confidence in such organizations, and their opinion on the use of nuclear power generation), and that the TEPCO incident had no impact on the public's attitude to nuclear power generation. In contrast with the JCO accident, which did affect the public's attitude to nuclear power generation, the TEPCO incident left a strong impression on few people, and public awareness was limited. Such low public awareness is deemed to relate to its lack of impact on the public's attitude to nuclear power generation. In the case of the JCO accident, even individuals who had limited exposure to the mass media were highly of it, whereas in the case of the TEPCO incident, individuals who were relatively unexposed to the mass media were substantially less aware of the incident than their more mass-media-exposed counterparts. This is deemed to have been due to the difference in mass media reports. A comparison of newspaper articles covering the TEPCO and the JCO accident substantiated the quantitative difference in mass media reports: articles on the former numbered less than half of the latter. Correlation analysis with respect to the awareness of the TEPCO incident was conducted, in order to identify the impact of the incident on individuals with a high level of awareness. Such individuals were highly confident that safe operation is being regarded as the top-priority objective by staff at the nuclear power plants, indicating that their confidence was not undermined by the TEPCO incident. However, there was a high level of distrust, that the truth about safety is

  4. Confidence and the stock market: an agent-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertella, Mario A; Pires, Felipe R; Feng, Ling; Stanley, Harry Eugene

    2014-01-01

    Using a behavioral finance approach we study the impact of behavioral bias. We construct an artificial market consisting of fundamentalists and chartists to model the decision-making process of various agents. The agents differ in their strategies for evaluating stock prices, and exhibit differing memory lengths and confidence levels. When we increase the heterogeneity of the strategies used by the agents, in particular the memory lengths, we observe excess volatility and kurtosis, in agreement with real market fluctuations--indicating that agents in real-world financial markets exhibit widely differing memory lengths. We incorporate the behavioral traits of adaptive confidence and observe a positive correlation between average confidence and return rate, indicating that market sentiment is an important driver in price fluctuations. The introduction of market confidence increases price volatility, reflecting the negative effect of irrationality in market behavior.

  5. CERN confident of LHC start-up in 2007

    CERN Document Server

    2007-01-01

    "Delegates attending the 140th meeting of CERN Council heard a confident report from the Laboratory about the scheduled start-up of the world's highest energy particle accelerator, the Large Hadron Collier (LHC), in 2007." (1 page)

  6. Confidence Measurement in the Light of Signal Detection Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sébastien eMassoni

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available We compare three alternative methods for eliciting retrospective confidence in the context of a simple perceptual task: the Simple Confidence Rating (a direct report on a numerical scale, the Quadratic Scoring Rule (a post-wagering procedure and the Matching Probability (a generalization of the no-loss gambling method. We systematically compare the results obtained with these three rules to the theoretical confidence levels that can be inferred from performance in the perceptual task using Signal Detection Theory. We find that the Matching Probability provides better results in that respect. We conclude that Matching Probability is particularly well suited for studies of confidence that use Signal Detection Theory as a theoretical framework.

  7. Confidence-building measures in the Asia-Pacific region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qin Huasun

    1991-01-01

    The regional confidence-building, security and disarmament issues in the Asia-Pacific region, and in particular, support to non-proliferation regime and establishing nuclear-weapon-free zones are reviewed

  8. Building Supervisory Confidence--A Key to Transfer of Training

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byham, William C.; Robinson, James

    1977-01-01

    A training concept is described which suggests that efforts toward maintaining and/or building the confidence of the participants in supervisory training programs can increase their likelihood of using the skills on the job. (TA)

  9. Confidence assessment. Site-descriptive modelling SDM-Site Laxemar

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-06-01

    The objective of this report is to assess the confidence that can be placed in the Laxemar site descriptive model, based on the information available at the conclusion of the surface-based investigations (SDM-Site Laxemar). In this exploration, an overriding question is whether remaining uncertainties are significant for repository engineering design or long-term safety assessment and could successfully be further reduced by more surface-based investigations or more usefully by explorations underground made during construction of the repository. Procedures for this assessment have been progressively refined during the course of the site descriptive modelling, and applied to all previous versions of the Forsmark and Laxemar site descriptive models. They include assessment of whether all relevant data have been considered and understood, identification of the main uncertainties and their causes, possible alternative models and their handling, and consistency between disciplines. The assessment then forms the basis for an overall confidence statement. The confidence in the Laxemar site descriptive model, based on the data available at the conclusion of the surface based site investigations, has been assessed by exploring: - Confidence in the site characterization data base, - remaining issues and their handling, - handling of alternatives, - consistency between disciplines and - main reasons for confidence and lack of confidence in the model. Generally, the site investigation database is of high quality, as assured by the quality procedures applied. It is judged that the Laxemar site descriptive model has an overall high level of confidence. Because of the relatively robust geological model that describes the site, the overall confidence in the Laxemar Site Descriptive model is judged to be high, even though details of the spatial variability remain unknown. The overall reason for this confidence is the wide spatial distribution of the data and the consistency between

  10. Confidence assessment. Site-descriptive modelling SDM-Site Laxemar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2008-12-15

    The objective of this report is to assess the confidence that can be placed in the Laxemar site descriptive model, based on the information available at the conclusion of the surface-based investigations (SDM-Site Laxemar). In this exploration, an overriding question is whether remaining uncertainties are significant for repository engineering design or long-term safety assessment and could successfully be further reduced by more surface-based investigations or more usefully by explorations underground made during construction of the repository. Procedures for this assessment have been progressively refined during the course of the site descriptive modelling, and applied to all previous versions of the Forsmark and Laxemar site descriptive models. They include assessment of whether all relevant data have been considered and understood, identification of the main uncertainties and their causes, possible alternative models and their handling, and consistency between disciplines. The assessment then forms the basis for an overall confidence statement. The confidence in the Laxemar site descriptive model, based on the data available at the conclusion of the surface based site investigations, has been assessed by exploring: - Confidence in the site characterization data base, - remaining issues and their handling, - handling of alternatives, - consistency between disciplines and - main reasons for confidence and lack of confidence in the model. Generally, the site investigation database is of high quality, as assured by the quality procedures applied. It is judged that the Laxemar site descriptive model has an overall high level of confidence. Because of the relatively robust geological model that describes the site, the overall confidence in the Laxemar Site Descriptive model is judged to be high, even though details of the spatial variability remain unknown. The overall reason for this confidence is the wide spatial distribution of the data and the consistency between

  11. The Sense of Confidence during Probabilistic Learning: A Normative Account.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florent Meyniel

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Learning in a stochastic environment consists of estimating a model from a limited amount of noisy data, and is therefore inherently uncertain. However, many classical models reduce the learning process to the updating of parameter estimates and neglect the fact that learning is also frequently accompanied by a variable "feeling of knowing" or confidence. The characteristics and the origin of these subjective confidence estimates thus remain largely unknown. Here we investigate whether, during learning, humans not only infer a model of their environment, but also derive an accurate sense of confidence from their inferences. In our experiment, humans estimated the transition probabilities between two visual or auditory stimuli in a changing environment, and reported their mean estimate and their confidence in this report. To formalize the link between both kinds of estimate and assess their accuracy in comparison to a normative reference, we derive the optimal inference strategy for our task. Our results indicate that subjects accurately track the likelihood that their inferences are correct. Learning and estimating confidence in what has been learned appear to be two intimately related abilities, suggesting that they arise from a single inference process. We show that human performance matches several properties of the optimal probabilistic inference. In particular, subjective confidence is impacted by environmental uncertainty, both at the first level (uncertainty in stimulus occurrence given the inferred stochastic characteristics and at the second level (uncertainty due to unexpected changes in these stochastic characteristics. Confidence also increases appropriately with the number of observations within stable periods. Our results support the idea that humans possess a quantitative sense of confidence in their inferences about abstract non-sensory parameters of the environment. This ability cannot be reduced to simple heuristics, it seems

  12. Confidence limits for small numbers of events in astrophysical data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gehrels, N.

    1986-01-01

    The calculation of limits for small numbers of astronomical counts is based on standard equations derived from Poisson and binomial statistics; although the equations are straightforward, their direct use is cumbersome and involves both table-interpolations and several mathematical operations. Convenient tables and approximate formulae are here presented for confidence limits which are based on such Poisson and binomial statistics. The limits in the tables are given for all confidence levels commonly used in astrophysics.

  13. Non-Asymptotic Confidence Sets for Circular Means

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Hotz

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The mean of data on the unit circle is defined as the minimizer of the average squared Euclidean distance to the data. Based on Hoeffding’s mass concentration inequalities, non-asymptotic confidence sets for circular means are constructed which are universal in the sense that they require no distributional assumptions. These are then compared with asymptotic confidence sets in simulations and for a real data set.

  14. Differentially Private Confidence Intervals for Empirical Risk Minimization

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Yue; Kifer, Daniel; Lee, Jaewoo

    2018-01-01

    The process of data mining with differential privacy produces results that are affected by two types of noise: sampling noise due to data collection and privacy noise that is designed to prevent the reconstruction of sensitive information. In this paper, we consider the problem of designing confidence intervals for the parameters of a variety of differentially private machine learning models. The algorithms can provide confidence intervals that satisfy differential privacy (as well as the mor...

  15. Learning style and confidence: an empirical investigation of Japanese employees

    OpenAIRE

    Yoshitaka Yamazaki

    2012-01-01

    This study aims to examine how learning styles relate to employees' confidence through a view of Kolb's experiential learning theory. For this aim, an empirical investigation was conducted using the sample of 201 Japanese employees who work for a Japanese multinational corporation. Results illustrated that the learning style group of acting orientation described a significantly higher level of job confidence than that of reflecting orientation, whereas the two groups of feeling and thinking o...

  16. The Development of Confidence Limits for Fatigue Strength Data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    SUTHERLAND, HERBERT J.; VEERS, PAUL S.

    1999-01-01

    Over the past several years, extensive databases have been developed for the S-N behavior of various materials used in wind turbine blades, primarily fiberglass composites. These data are typically presented both in their raw form and curve fit to define their average properties. For design, confidence limits must be placed on these descriptions. In particular, most designs call for the 95/95 design values; namely, with a 95% level of confidence, the designer is assured that 95% of the material will meet or exceed the design value. For such material properties as the ultimate strength, the procedures for estimating its value at a particular confidence level is well defined if the measured values follow a normal or a log-normal distribution. Namely, based upon the number of sample points and their standard deviation, a commonly-found table may be used to determine the survival percentage at a particular confidence level with respect to its mean value. The same is true for fatigue data at a constant stress level (the number of cycles to failure N at stress level S(sub 1)). However, when the stress level is allowed to vary, as with a typical S-N fatigue curve, the procedures for determining confidence limits are not as well defined. This paper outlines techniques for determining confidence limits of fatigue data. Different approaches to estimating the 95/95 level are compared. Data from the MSU/DOE and the FACT fatigue databases are used to illustrate typical results

  17. Learning to make collective decisions: the impact of confidence escalation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahmoodi, Ali; Bang, Dan; Ahmadabadi, Majid Nili; Bahrami, Bahador

    2013-01-01

    Little is known about how people learn to take into account others' opinions in joint decisions. To address this question, we combined computational and empirical approaches. Human dyads made individual and joint visual perceptual decision and rated their confidence in those decisions (data previously published). We trained a reinforcement (temporal difference) learning agent to get the participants' confidence level and learn to arrive at a dyadic decision by finding the policy that either maximized the accuracy of the model decisions or maximally conformed to the empirical dyadic decisions. When confidences were shared visually without verbal interaction, RL agents successfully captured social learning. When participants exchanged confidences visually and interacted verbally, no collective benefit was achieved and the model failed to predict the dyadic behaviour. Behaviourally, dyad members' confidence increased progressively and verbal interaction accelerated this escalation. The success of the model in drawing collective benefit from dyad members was inversely related to confidence escalation rate. The findings show an automated learning agent can, in principle, combine individual opinions and achieve collective benefit but the same agent cannot discount the escalation suggesting that one cognitive component of collective decision making in human may involve discounting of overconfidence arising from interactions.

  18. ROS-mediated PARP activity undermines mitochondrial function after permeability transition pore opening during myocardial ischemia-reperfusion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schriewer, Jacqueline M; Peek, Clara Bien; Bass, Joseph; Schumacker, Paul T

    2013-04-18

    Ischemia-reperfusion (I/R) studies have implicated oxidant stress, the mitochondrial permeability transition pore (mPTP), and poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase (PARP) as contributing factors in myocardial cell death. However, the interdependence of these factors in the intact, blood-perfused heart is not known. We therefore wanted to determine whether oxidant stress, mPTP opening, and PARP activity contribute to the same death pathway after myocardial I/R. A murine left anterior descending coronary artery (LAD) occlusion (30 minutes) and release (1 to 4 hours) model was employed. Experimental groups included controls and antioxidant-treated, mPTP-inhibited, or PARP-inhibited hearts. Antioxidant treatment prevented oxidative damage, mPTP opening, ATP depletion, and PARP activity, placing oxidant stress as the proximal death trigger. Genetic deletion of cyclophilin D (CypD(-/-)) prevented loss of total NAD(+) and PARP activity, and mPTP-mediated loss of mitochondrial function. Control hearts showed progressive mitochondrial depolarization and loss of ATP from 1.5 to 4 hours of reperfusion, but not outer mitochondrial membrane rupture. Neither genetic deletion of PARP-1 nor its pharmacological inhibition prevented the initial mPTP-mediated depolarization or loss of ATP, but PARP ablation did allow mitochondrial recovery by 4 hours of reperfusion. These results indicate that oxidant stress, the mPTP, and PARP activity contribute to a single death pathway after I/R in the heart. PARP activation undermines cell survival by preventing mitochondrial recovery after mPTP opening early in reperfusion. This suggests that PARP-mediated prolongation of mitochondrial depolarization contributes significantly to cell death via an energetic crisis rather than by mitochondrial outer membrane rupture.

  19. The Undermining Effect of Facial Attractiveness on Brain Responses to Fairness in Ultimatum Game: An ERP Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qingguo eMa

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available To investigate the time course of the neural processing of facial attractiveness and its influence on fairness consideration during social interactions, event-related potentials (ERP were recorded from 21 male subjects performing a two-person Ultimatum Game (UG. During this bargaining game, the male subjects played responders who decided whether to accept offers from female proposers, whose facial images (grouped as attractive and unattractive were presented prior to the offer presentation. The behavioral data demonstrated that the acceptance ratio increased with the fairness level of the offers and, more importantly, the subjects were more likely to accept unfair offers when presented with the attractive-face condition compared with the unattractive-face condition. The reaction times (RTs for five offers (1:9, 2:8, 3:7, 4:6 and 5:5 in the unattractive-face condition were not significantly different. In contrast, the subjects reacted slower to the attractive proposers’ unfair offers and quicker to fair offers. The ERP analysis of the face presentation demonstrated a decreased early negativity (N2 and enhanced late positive potentials (LPPs elicited by the attractive faces compared with the unattractive faces. In addition, the feedback-related negativity (FRN in response to an offer presentation was not significantly different for the unfair (1:9 and 2:8 and fair (4:6 and 5:5 offers in the attractive-face condition. However, the unfair offers generated larger FRNs compared with the fair offers in the unattractive-face condition (consistent with prior studies. A similar effect was identified for P300. The present study demonstrated an undermining effect of proposer facial attractiveness on responder consideration of offer fairness during the UG.

  20. Deformation analysis of the repeated positional surveys in the undermined localities using web applications and WMS map services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milan Talich

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available The XML web application for on-line calculations of deformation analysis from the repeated positional surveys using Internet service and data is described. Parameters of deformation field (strain tensors, total dilatations are determined in a grid network covering the zone of interest. Displacement vectors from repeated measurements at given points of a geodetic network represent the imput data of calculation. The calculation is based on application of the theory of continuum mechanics and its fundamental prerequisite is homogeneity of the researched territory.The application currently utilizes the Web Map Services - WMS for the graphic presentation of calculated results as GIS. This service for example enables on-line thematic map composition as defined by the user in the window of Internet explorer based on data given by servers of WMS service. Thus the user does not need to own any geographic data to create his/her GIS.Furthermore there are also given application examples of the repeated geodetic surveys used in the field at localities in the forefront of ČSA giant quarry at Komořany and in the undermined territory in Ostrava region. The examples show the independence of calculated values of tensors from rotation and translation of the coordinate systems in practise. This fact gives the evidence that the deformation analysis is more objective dynamic indicator in the researched area and not only the calculus and representation of point displacement vectors. After registration this application is at all interested persons disposal to on-line calculations via the Internet.

  1. Gender, Math Confidence, and Grit: Relationships with Quantitative Skills and Performance in an Undergraduate Biology Course.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flanagan, K M; Einarson, J

    2017-01-01

    In a world filled with big data, mathematical models, and statistics, the development of strong quantitative skills is becoming increasingly critical for modern biologists. Teachers in this field must understand how students acquire quantitative skills and explore barriers experienced by students when developing these skills. In this study, we examine the interrelationships among gender, grit, and math confidence for student performance on a pre-post quantitative skills assessment and overall performance in an undergraduate biology course. Here, we show that females significantly underperformed relative to males on a quantitative skills assessment at the start of term. However, females showed significantly higher gains over the semester, such that the gender gap in performance was nearly eliminated by the end of the semester. Math confidence plays an important role in the performance on both the pre and post quantitative skills assessments and overall performance in the course. The effect of grit on student performance, however, is mediated by a student's math confidence; as math confidence increases, the positive effect of grit decreases. Consequently, the positive impact of a student's grittiness is observed most strongly for those students with low math confidence. We also found grit to be positively associated with the midterm score and the final grade in the course. Given the relationships established in this study among gender, grit, and math confidence, we provide "instructor actions" from the literature that can be applied in the classroom to promote the development of quantitative skills in light of our findings. © 2017 K. M. Flanagan and J. Einarson. CBE—Life Sciences Education © 2017 The American Society for Cell Biology. This article is distributed by The American Society for Cell Biology under license from the author(s). It is available to the public under an Attribution–Noncommercial–Share Alike 3.0 Unported Creative Commons License (http

  2. Talking about cancer with confidence: evaluation of cancer awareness training for community-based health workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimmett, Chloe; Macherianakis, Alexis; Rendell, Helen; George, Helen; Kaplan, Gwen; Kilgour, Gillian; Power, Emily

    2014-09-01

    To examine the impact of cancer awareness training for community-based health workers on confidence to talk about cancer, and knowledge of cancer risk factors and signs and symptoms. Community-based health workers from Sandwell, Birmingham and Solihull were invited to take part in one of 14 one-day training workshops. Trainees completed questionnaires at the beginning of the workshop and were followed up one month later. Confidence in talking about cancer was examined. Knowledge of cancer risk factors and signs and symptoms was assessed. Trainees were asked to rate the usefulness of the workshop, whether they would recommend it to others and whether they had put what they had learnt into practice. A total of 187 community-based health workers took part in the workshops, and 167 (89%) completed the one-month follow-up. Considerable improvements were observed in confidence to discuss cancer. For example, the proportion of participants reporting feeling 'very confident'/'fairly confident' in discussing signs and symptoms of cancer increased from 32% to 96% (p cancer at one month compared with 21% before training (p cancer signs and symptoms also increased from 2.3 (± 1.6) to 2.7 (± 1.5), (p = .02). Most trainees (83%) rated the workshop as 'very useful', and 89% said they would 'definitely' recommend the workshop. The cancer awareness training was reviewed positively by community-based health workers and led to improvements in confidence to talk about cancer, and knowledge of risk factors and warning signs of cancer. It is hoped that raising awareness among this group will help them to communicate and drive behaviour change in the at-risk populations with whom they work. © Royal Society for Public Health 2014.

  3. Stability in the metamemory realism of eyewitness confidence judgments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buratti, Sandra; Allwood, Carl Martin; Johansson, Marcus

    2014-02-01

    The stability of eyewitness confidence judgments over time in regard to their reported memory and accuracy of these judgments is of interest in forensic contexts because witnesses are often interviewed many times. The present study investigated the stability of the confidence judgments of memory reports of a witnessed event and of the accuracy of these judgments over three occasions, each separated by 1 week. Three age groups were studied: younger children (8-9 years), older children (10-11 years), and adults (19-31 years). A total of 93 participants viewed a short film clip and were asked to answer directed two-alternative forced-choice questions about the film clip and to confidence judge each answer. Different questions about details in the film clip were used on each of the three test occasions. Confidence as such did not exhibit stability over time on an individual basis. However, the difference between confidence and proportion correct did exhibit stability across time, in terms of both over/underconfidence and calibration. With respect to age, the adults and older children exhibited more stability than the younger children for calibration. Furthermore, some support for instability was found with respect to the difference between the average confidence level for correct and incorrect answers (slope). Unexpectedly, however, the younger children's slope was found to be more stable than the adults. Compared to the previous research, the present study's use of more advanced statistical methods provides a more nuanced understanding of the stability of confidence judgments in the eyewitness reports of children and adults.

  4. Registered nurse leadership style and confidence in delegation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saccomano, Scott J; Pinto-Zipp, Genevieve

    2011-05-01

      Leadership and confidence in delegation are two important explanatory constructs of nursing practice. The relationship between these constructs, however, is not clearly understood. To be successful in their roles as leaders, regardless of their experience, registered nurses (RNs) need to understand how to best delegate. The present study explored and described the relationship between RN leadership styles, demographic variables and confidence in delegation in a community teaching hospital. Utilizing a cross-sectional survey design, RNs employed in one acute care hospital completed questionnaires that measured leadership style [Path-Goal Leadership Questionnaire (PGLQ)] and confidence in delegating patient care tasks [Confidence and Intent to Delegate Scale (CIDS)]. Contrary to expectations, the data did not confirm a relationship between confidence in delegating tasks to unlicensed assistive personnel (UAPs) and leadership style. Nurses who were diploma or associate degree prepared were initially less confident in delegating tasks to UAPs as compared with RNs holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Further, after 5 years of clinical nursing experience, nurses with less educational experience reported more confidence in delegating tasks as compared with RNs with more educational experience. The lack of a relationship between leadership style and confidence in delegating patient care tasks were discussed in terms of the PGLQ classification criteria and hospital unit differences. As suggested by the significant two-way interaction between educational preparation and clinical nursing experience, changes in the nurse's confidence in delegating patient care tasks to UAPs was a dynamic changing variable that resulted from the interplay between amount of educational preparation and years of clinical nursing experience in this population of nurses. Clearly, generalizability of these findings to nurses outside the US is questionable, thus nurse managers must be familiar

  5. Determining the confidence levels of sensor outputs using neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Broten, G.S.; Wood, H.C.

    1995-01-01

    This paper describes an approach for determining the confidence level of a sensor output using multi-sensor arrays, sensor fusion and artificial neural networks. The authors have shown in previous work that sensor fusion and artificial neural networks can be used to learn the relationships between the outputs of an array of simulated partially selective sensors and the individual analyte concentrations in a mixture of analyses. Other researchers have shown that an array of partially selective sensors can be used to determine the individual gas concentrations in a gaseous mixture. The research reported in this paper shows that it is possible to extract confidence level information from an array of partially selective sensors using artificial neural networks. The confidence level of a sensor output is defined as a numeric value, ranging from 0% to 100%, that indicates the confidence associated with a output of a given sensor. A three layer back-propagation neural network was trained on a subset of the sensor confidence level space, and was tested for its ability to generalize, where the confidence level space is defined as all possible deviations from the correct sensor output. A learning rate of 0.1 was used and no momentum terms were used in the neural network. This research has shown that an artificial neural network can accurately estimate the confidence level of individual sensors in an array of partially selective sensors. This research has also shown that the neural network's ability to determine the confidence level is influenced by the complexity of the sensor's response and that the neural network is able to estimate the confidence levels even if more than one sensor is in error. The fundamentals behind this research could be applied to other configurations besides arrays of partially selective sensors, such as an array of sensors separated spatially. An example of such a configuration could be an array of temperature sensors in a tank that is not in

  6. Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi; Zhang, Yuqing

    2016-01-01

    Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price.

  7. Conquering Credibility for Monetary Policy Under Sticky Confidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaylson Jair da Silveira

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available We derive a best-reply monetary policy when the confidence by price setters on the monetary authority’s commitment to price level targeting may be both incomplete and sticky. We find that complete confidence (or full credibility is not a necessary condition for the achievement of a price level target even when heterogeneity in firms’ price level expectations is endogenously time-varying and may emerge as a long-run equilibrium outcome. In fact, in the absence of exogenous perturbations to the dynamic of confidence building, it is the achievement of a price level target for long enough that, due to stickiness in the state of confidence, rather ensures the conquering of full credibility. This result has relevant implications for the conduct of monetary policy in pursuit of price stability. One implication is that setting a price level target matters more as a means to provide monetary policy with a sharper focus on price stability than as a device to conquer credibility. As regards the conquering of credibility for monetary policy, it turns out that actions speak louder than words, as the continuing achievement of price stability is what ultimately performs better as a confidence-building device.

  8. Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao-Qian Sun

    Full Text Available Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price.

  9. Kangaroo Care Education Effects on Nurses' Knowledge and Skills Confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almutairi, Wedad Matar; Ludington-Hoe, Susan M

    2016-11-01

    Less than 20% of the 996 NICUs in the United States routinely practice kangaroo care, due in part to the inadequate knowledge and skills confidence of nurses. Continuing education improves knowledge and skills acquisition, but the effects of a kangaroo care certification course on nurses' knowledge and skills confidence are unknown. A pretest-posttest quasi-experiment was conducted. The Kangaroo Care Knowledge and Skills Confidence Tool was administered to 68 RNs at a 2.5-day course about kangaroo care evidence and skills. Measures of central tendency, dispersion, and paired t tests were conducted on 57 questionnaires. The nurses' characteristics were varied. The mean posttest Knowledge score (M = 88.54, SD = 6.13) was significantly higher than the pretest score (M = 78.7, SD = 8.30), t [54] = -9.1, p = .000), as was the posttest Skills Confidence score (pretest M = 32.06, SD = 3.49; posttest M = 26.80, SD = 5.22), t [53] = -8.459, p = .000). The nurses' knowledge and skills confidence of kangaroo care improved following continuing education, suggesting a need for continuing education in this area. J Contin Educ Nurs. 2016;47(11):518-524. Copyright 2016, SLACK Incorporated.

  10. Institutional Confidence in the United States: Attitudes of Secular Americans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabella Kasselstrand

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The First Amendment to the United States’ Constitution addresses freedom of religion and the separation of church and state. However, the historical influence of religion in laws, policies, and political representation have left secular individuals feeling excluded. At the same time, levels of confidence in social and political institutions in the United States are at an all-time low. This begs the question: Is there a relationship between secularity and confidence in various social and political institutions (e.g. the armed forces, churches, major companies, government, police, and political parties? This question is examined using data on the United States from the World Values Survey from 1995–2011. While controlling for a range of key demographics, the findings show a negative relationship between secularity and institutional confidence. More specifically, atheists and nonreligious individuals are less likely than those who are religious to have confidence in all six institutions. Based on previous literature and the empirical evidence presented in this study, we argue that overall lower levels of institutional confidence among secular Americans is an outcome of the exclusion of such individuals from American social life. Thus, it highlights the importance of addressing the stereotypes and prejudice that this minority group faces.

  11. Nurse leader certification preparation: how are confidence levels impacted?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junger, Stacey; Trinkle, Nicole; Hall, Norma

    2016-09-01

    The aim was to examine the effect of a nurse leader certification preparation course on the confidence levels of the participants. Limited literature is available regarding nurse leader development and certifications. Barriers exist related to lack of confidence, high cost, time and lack of access to a preparation course. Nurse leaders (n = 51) completed a pre- and post-survey addressing confidence levels of participants related to the topics addressed in the nurse leader certification preparation course. There were statistically significant increases in confidence levels related to all course content for the participants. At the time of the study, there were 31.4% of participants intending to sit for the certification examination, and 5 of the 51 participants successfully sat for and passed the examination. A nurse leader certification preparation course increases confidence levels of the participants and removes barriers, thereby increasing the number of certifications obtained. The health-care climate is increasingly complex and nurse leaders need the expertise to navigate the ever-changing health-care environment. Certification in a specialty, such as leadership, serves as an indicator of a high level of competence in the field. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Maximum-confidence discrimination among symmetric qudit states

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jimenez, O.; Solis-Prosser, M. A.; Delgado, A.; Neves, L.

    2011-01-01

    We study the maximum-confidence (MC) measurement strategy for discriminating among nonorthogonal symmetric qudit states. Restricting to linearly dependent and equally likely pure states, we find the optimal positive operator valued measure (POVM) that maximizes our confidence in identifying each state in the set and minimizes the probability of obtaining inconclusive results. The physical realization of this POVM is completely determined and it is shown that after an inconclusive outcome, the input states may be mapped into a new set of equiprobable symmetric states, restricted, however, to a subspace of the original qudit Hilbert space. By applying the MC measurement again onto this new set, we can still gain some information about the input states, although with less confidence than before. This leads us to introduce the concept of sequential maximum-confidence (SMC) measurements, where the optimized MC strategy is iterated in as many stages as allowed by the input set, until no further information can be extracted from an inconclusive result. Within each stage of this measurement our confidence in identifying the input states is the highest possible, although it decreases from one stage to the next. In addition, the more stages we accomplish within the maximum allowed, the higher will be the probability of correct identification. We will discuss an explicit example of the optimal SMC measurement applied in the discrimination among four symmetric qutrit states and propose an optical network to implement it.

  13. Emotor control: computations underlying bodily resource allocation, emotions, and confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kepecs, Adam; Mensh, Brett D

    2015-12-01

    Emotional processes are central to behavior, yet their deeply subjective nature has been a challenge for neuroscientific study as well as for psychiatric diagnosis. Here we explore the relationships between subjective feelings and their underlying brain circuits from a computational perspective. We apply recent insights from systems neuroscience-approaching subjective behavior as the result of mental computations instantiated in the brain-to the study of emotions. We develop the hypothesis that emotions are the product of neural computations whose motor role is to reallocate bodily resources mostly gated by smooth muscles. This "emotor" control system is analagous to the more familiar motor control computations that coordinate skeletal muscle movements. To illustrate this framework, we review recent research on "confidence." Although familiar as a feeling, confidence is also an objective statistical quantity: an estimate of the probability that a hypothesis is correct. This model-based approach helped reveal the neural basis of decision confidence in mammals and provides a bridge to the subjective feeling of confidence in humans. These results have important implications for psychiatry, since disorders of confidence computations appear to contribute to a number of psychopathologies. More broadly, this computational approach to emotions resonates with the emerging view that psychiatric nosology may be best parameterized in terms of disorders of the cognitive computations underlying complex behavior.

  14. Nurses' training and confidence on deep venous catheterization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liachopoulou, A P; Synodinou-Kamilou, E E; Deligiannidi, P G; Giannakopoulou, M; Birbas, K N

    2008-01-01

    The rough estimation of the education and the self-confidence of nurses, both students and professionals, regarding deep venous catheterization in adult patients, the evaluation of the change in self-confidence of one team of students who were trained with a simulator on deep venous catheterization and the correlation of their self-confidence with their performance recorded by the simulator. Seventy-six nurses and one hundred twenty-four undergraduate students participated in the study. Fourty-four University students took part in a two-day educational seminar and were trained on subclavian and femoral vein paracentesis with a simulator and an anatomical model. Three questionnaires were filled in by the participants: one from nurses, one from students of Technological institutions, while the University students filled in the previous questionnaire before their attendance of the seminar, and another questionnaire after having attended it. Impressive results in improving the participants' self-confidence were recorded. However, the weak correlation of their self-confidence with the score automatically provided by the simulator after each user's training obligates us to be particularly cautious about the ability of the users to repeat the action successfully in a clinical environment. Educational courses and simulators are useful educational tools that are likely to shorten but in no case can efface the early phase of the learning curve in clinical setting, substituting the clinical training of inexperienced users.

  15. Personality and demographic correlates of New Zealanders' confidence in the safety of childhood vaccinations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Carol H J; Duck, Isabelle M; Sibley, Chris G

    2017-10-27

    Despite extensive scientific evidence on the safety of standard vaccinations, some parents express skeptical attitudes towards the safety of childhood immunisations. This paper uses data from the 2013/14 New Zealand Attitudes and Values Study (NZAVS) survey (N=16,642) to explore the distribution, and demographic and personality correlates of New Zealanders' attitudes towards the safety of childhood vaccinations. Around two thirds (68.5%) of New Zealanders strongly agreed/were confident that "it is safe to vaccinate children following the standard New Zealand immunisation schedule," 26% were skeptical and 5.5% were strongly opposed. Multiple regression analysis indicated that people lower on Conscientiousness and Agreeableness but higher on Openness to Experience expressed lower confidence about vaccine safety. Having higher subjective health satisfaction, living rurally, being Māori, single, employed and not a parent were all associated with lower confidence, while a higher income and educational attainment were associated with greater confidence. Our findings suggest that the majority of New Zealand adults trust in the safety of scheduled childhood vaccinations, but about one third do express some degree of concern. This finding highlights the importance of improving public education about the safety and necessity of vaccinations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Histological case-control study of peeling-induced skin changes by different peeling agents in surgically subcutaneous undermined skin flaps in facelift patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonser, P; Kaestner, S; Jaminet, P; Kaye, K

    2017-11-01

    A histological evaluation of peeling-induced skin changes in subcutaneous undermined preauricular facial skin flaps of nine patients was performed. There were three treatment groups: Trichloroacetic acid (TCA) 25%, TCA 40% and phenol/croton oil; one group served as control. Two independent evaluators determined the epidermal and dermal thickness and the depth of necrosis (micrometre). The percentual tissue damage due to the peeling was calculated, and a one-sample t-test for statistical significance was performed. On the basis of the histomorphological changes, peeling depth was classified as superficial, superficial-partial, deep-partial and full thickness chemical burn. The histological results revealed a progression of wound depth for different peeling agents without full thickness necrosis. TCA peels of up to 40% can be safely applied on subcutaneous undermined facial skin flaps without impairing the vascular patency, producing a predictable chemical burn, whereas deep peels such as phenol/croton oil peels should not be applied on subcutaneous undermined skin so as to not produce skin slough or necrosis by impairing vascular patency. Copyright © 2017 British Association of Plastic, Reconstructive and Aesthetic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Observations on stake holder confidence related to uranium mine waste management in the elliot lake region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacDonald, G.

    2003-01-01

    G. MacDonald, representing the Township of the North Shore and the Standing Environmental Committee (SEC) of the Serpent River Watershed, stated that she is a stakeholder living downstream from 175 million tonnes of acid-generating and radioactive uranium mine tailings. Public confidence in the Elliot Lake region is influenced by past mining issues: worker health concerns and difficulties in obtaining compensation; myriad observations of radium uptake; drinking water contamination issues and inequitable quality standards adverse to the Serpent River First Nation; loss of land use. Government failed to set aside funds for local monitoring of the decommissioned mining region, or to involve citizens in decisions as recommended by the Kirkwood Panel. These failures represent betrayals of trust and furthermore give public confidence little chance to improve. In these circumstances, the affected community has given attention on their own to mid- and long-term issues. At issue is not the current funding or management of the waste storage sites, but rather, creating and maintaining local knowledge and competence to monitor their management over the coming decades and generations. Concerned members of the community note that the federal government 'has done nothing long-lasting to ensure confidence', on this level. They highlight the importance of questions like: 'Do I have the knowledge to act in my best interest?' and 'Who can I trust to protect my interest?' - and have set out to answer them. (author)

  18. The NEA Forum on Stakeholder Confidence - Phase I Lessons and Phase II Activities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, Peter [Natural Resources Canada, Ottawa (Canada). Uranium and Radioactive Waste Div.; Pescatore, Claudio [Nuclear Energy Agency, Paris (France)

    2006-09-15

    The Forum on Stakeholder Confidence (FSC) was created under a mandate from the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) Radioactive Waste Management Committee (RWMC) to facilitate the sharing of international experience in addressing the societal dimension of radioactive waste management. It explores means of ensuring an effective dialogue with the public, and considers ways to strengthen confidence in decision-making processes. The Forum was launched in August 2000 and completed its first phase in 00 . Major findings and principles for action were published under the title of 'Learning and Adapting to Societal Requirements'. Activities of the FSC were also reported at Valdor 2003. In the second mandate of the FSC, there is continued use of a variety of tools and formats to allow dialogue among stakeholders in an atmosphere of mutual trust: national workshops and community visits, topical sessions, and desk and interview studies. In Phase II, the FSC is exploring: the link between research, development and demonstration and stakeholder confidence; cultural and organisational changes in RWM institutions; the role of media relations and outreach opportunities; tools and processes to help society prepare and manage decisions through stakeholder involvement; and increasing the value of waste management facilities to local communities. Workshops have been held in Germany and Spain. A large set of publications makes both Phase I and Phase II findings widely available.

  19. The NEA Forum on Stakeholder Confidence - Phase I Lessons and Phase II Activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, Peter

    2006-01-01

    The Forum on Stakeholder Confidence (FSC) was created under a mandate from the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) Radioactive Waste Management Committee (RWMC) to facilitate the sharing of international experience in addressing the societal dimension of radioactive waste management. It explores means of ensuring an effective dialogue with the public, and considers ways to strengthen confidence in decision-making processes. The Forum was launched in August 2000 and completed its first phase in 00 . Major findings and principles for action were published under the title of 'Learning and Adapting to Societal Requirements'. Activities of the FSC were also reported at Valdor 2003. In the second mandate of the FSC, there is continued use of a variety of tools and formats to allow dialogue among stakeholders in an atmosphere of mutual trust: national workshops and community visits, topical sessions, and desk and interview studies. In Phase II, the FSC is exploring: the link between research, development and demonstration and stakeholder confidence; cultural and organisational changes in RWM institutions; the role of media relations and outreach opportunities; tools and processes to help society prepare and manage decisions through stakeholder involvement; and increasing the value of waste management facilities to local communities. Workshops have been held in Germany and Spain. A large set of publications makes both Phase I and Phase II findings widely available

  20. On Bayesian treatment of systematic uncertainties in confidence interval calculation

    CERN Document Server

    Tegenfeldt, Fredrik

    2005-01-01

    In high energy physics, a widely used method to treat systematic uncertainties in confidence interval calculations is based on combining a frequentist construction of confidence belts with a Bayesian treatment of systematic uncertainties. In this note we present a study of the coverage of this method for the standard Likelihood Ratio (aka Feldman & Cousins) construction for a Poisson process with known background and Gaussian or log-Normal distributed uncertainties in the background or signal efficiency. For uncertainties in the signal efficiency of upto 40 % we find over-coverage on the level of 2 to 4 % depending on the size of uncertainties and the region in signal space. Uncertainties in the background generally have smaller effect on the coverage. A considerable smoothing of the coverage curves is observed. A software package is presented which allows fast calculation of the confidence intervals for a variety of assumptions on shape and size of systematic uncertainties for different nuisance paramete...

  1. Exploring Self - Confidence Level of High School Students Doing Sport

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nurullah Emir Ekinci

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to investigate self-confidence levels of high school students, who do sport, in the extent of their gender, sport branch (individual/team sports and aim for participating in sport (professional/amateur. 185 active high school students from Kutahya voluntarily participated for the study. In the study as data gathering tool self-confidence scale was used. In the evaluation of the data as a hypothesis test Mann Whitney U non parametric test was used. As a result self-confidence levels of participants showed significant differences according to their gender and sport branch but there was no significant difference according to aim for participating in sport.

  2. Building and strengthening confidence and security in Asia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Corden, P.S.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents a few thoughts on the question of building and strengthening confidence and security in Asia, in particular in the area centred on the Korean peninsula. This question includes the process of establishing and implementing confidence- and security-building measures, some of which might involve States other than North and South Korea. The development of CSBMs has now been well established in Europe, and there are encouraging signs that such measures are taking hold in other areas of the world, including in Korea. Consequently there is a fairly rich mine of information, precedent and experience from which to draw in focusing on the particular subject at hand. In these remarks the concept of confidence- and security-building is briefly addressed and measures are examined that have proven useful in other circumstances and review some possibilities that appear of interest in the present context

  3. Perceptual learning effect on decision and confidence thresholds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solovey, Guillermo; Shalom, Diego; Pérez-Schuster, Verónica; Sigman, Mariano

    2016-10-01

    Practice can enhance of perceptual sensitivity, a well-known phenomenon called perceptual learning. However, the effect of practice on subjective perception has received little attention. We approach this problem from a visual psychophysics and computational modeling perspective. In a sequence of visual search experiments, subjects significantly increased the ability to detect a "trained target". Before and after training, subjects performed two psychophysical protocols that parametrically vary the visibility of the "trained target": an attentional blink and a visual masking task. We found that confidence increased after learning only in the attentional blink task. Despite large differences in some observables and task settings, we identify common mechanisms for decision-making and confidence. Specifically, our behavioral results and computational model suggest that perceptual ability is independent of processing time, indicating that changes in early cortical representations are effective, and learning changes decision criteria to convey choice and confidence. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. The globalization of insecurity: how the international economic order undermines human and national security on a world scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nafeez Mosaddeq Ahmed

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available La seguridad nacional y humana ha sido fundamentalmente subestimada por políticas promovidas por instituciones claves de la globalización. La adopción de una conceptualización estato-céntrica de la seguridad demuestra cómo la globalización debilita y fragmenta el Estado, mientras militariza a los actores estatales y subestatales, contribuyendo sistemáticamente  a la emergencia de conflictos inter e intra-estatales. Un paradigma centrado en lo humano, que se focalise en el impacto de la globalización sobre los individuos y comunidades, muestra que este proceso esá vinculado con la generación de violencia estructural a lo largo de fronteras nacionales. Ambos niveles de procesos -el nacional y el humano- son mutualmente interdependientes e impactan el uno en el otro de forma recíproca. De aquí que la economía capitalista mundial ha creado un fenómeno que puede ser claramente descrito como la globalización de la inseguridad, generando en primera instancia conflicto y consecuentemente desestabilizando  naciones y comunidades, y en segundo lugar empobrecimiento, enfermedad y marginación. ________________ABSTRACT:National and human security has been fundamentally undermined by policies promoted by the key institutions of globalization. Adopting a state-centred conceptualization of security demonstrates how globalization at once weakens and fragments the state, while militarizing both the state and sub-state actors, contributing systematically to the emergence of intra- and inter-state conflicts. A human-centred framework, however, focusing on the impact of globalization on individuals and communities, shows that this process is further linked to the generation of structural violence across national boundaries. Both these national -and human- level processes are mutually interdependent and impact on one another reciprocally. Hence, the world capitalist economy has created a phenomenon that can be accurately described as the

  5. Nearest unlike neighbor (NUN): an aid to decision confidence estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dasarathy, Belur V.

    1995-09-01

    The concept of nearest unlike neighbor (NUN), proposed and explored previously in the design of nearest neighbor (NN) based decision systems, is further exploited in this study to develop a measure of confidence in the decisions made by NN-based decision systems. This measure of confidence, on the basis of comparison with a user-defined threshold, may be used to determine the acceptability of the decision provided by the NN-based decision system. The concepts, associated methodology, and some illustrative numerical examples using the now classical Iris data to bring out the ease of implementation and effectiveness of the proposed innovations are presented.

  6. Lower Confidence Bounds for the Probabilities of Correct Selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radhey S. Singh

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available We extend the results of Gupta and Liang (1998, derived for location parameters, to obtain lower confidence bounds for the probability of correctly selecting the t best populations (PCSt simultaneously for all t=1,…,k−1 for the general scale parameter models, where k is the number of populations involved in the selection problem. The application of the results to the exponential and normal probability models is discussed. The implementation of the simultaneous lower confidence bounds for PCSt is illustrated through real-life datasets.

  7. Effect of False Confidence on Asset Allocation Decisions of Households

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Swarn Chatterjee

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates whether false confidence, as characterized by a high level of personal mastery and a low level of intelligence (IQ, results in frequent investor trading and subsequent investor wealth erosion across time. Using the National Longitudinal Survey (NLSY79, change in wealth and asset allocation across time is modeled as a function of various behavioral, socio-economic and demographic variables drawn from prior literature.  Findings of this research reveal that false confidence is indeed a predictor of trading activity in individual investment assets, and it also has a negative impact on individual wealth creation across time.

  8. Confidence bounds of recurrence-based complexity measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schinkel, Stefan; Marwan, N.; Dimigen, O.; Kurths, J.

    2009-01-01

    In the recent past, recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) has gained an increasing interest in various research areas. The complexity measures the RQA provides have been useful in describing and analysing a broad range of data. It is known to be rather robust to noise and nonstationarities. Yet, one key question in empirical research concerns the confidence bounds of measured data. In the present Letter we suggest a method for estimating the confidence bounds of recurrence-based complexity measures. We study the applicability of the suggested method with model and real-life data.

  9. Confidence Intervals from Realizations of Simulated Nuclear Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Younes, W. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Ratkiewicz, A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Ressler, J. J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2017-09-28

    Various statistical techniques are discussed that can be used to assign a level of confidence in the prediction of models that depend on input data with known uncertainties and correlations. The particular techniques reviewed in this paper are: 1) random realizations of the input data using Monte-Carlo methods, 2) the construction of confidence intervals to assess the reliability of model predictions, and 3) resampling techniques to impose statistical constraints on the input data based on additional information. These techniques are illustrated with a calculation of the keff value, based on the 235U(n, f) and 239Pu (n, f) cross sections.

  10. Estimation and interpretation of keff confidence intervals in MCNP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Urbatsch, T.J.

    1995-11-01

    MCNP's criticality methodology and some basic statistics are reviewed. Confidence intervals are discussed, as well as how to build them and their importance in the presentation of a Monte Carlo result. The combination of MCNP's three k eff estimators is shown, theoretically and empirically, by statistical studies and examples, to be the best k eff estimator. The method of combining estimators is based on a solid theoretical foundation, namely, the Gauss-Markov Theorem in regard to the least squares method. The confidence intervals of the combined estimator are also shown to have correct coverage rates for the examples considered

  11. Older widows and married women: their intimates and confidants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babchuk, N; Anderson, T B

    1989-01-01

    Interview data obtained from 132 women sixty-five and older reveals that the widows and married women have a comparable number of primary friends. Being over age seventy-four influences the size of the friendship network for widows but not married women. The primary friendships of widows and married women parallel each other in terms of endurance and stability. Primary ties with men are the exception rather than the norm, for both widows and married women. Widows do differ from married women in that the former rely on confidant friends to a greater extent. Ties between older women and their confidants are characterized by norms of reciprocity.

  12. Vaccine mandates, public trust, and vaccine confidence: understanding perceptions is important.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Widdus, Roy; Larson, Heidi

    2018-05-01

    The experience in Australia with penalizing parents who refuse to have their children vaccinated demonstrates the need to study and understand resistance to vaccination as a global phenomenon with particular local manifestations.

  13. Publicity and public relations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fosha, Charles E.

    1990-01-01

    This paper addresses approaches to using publicity and public relations to meet the goals of the NASA Space Grant College. Methods universities and colleges can use to publicize space activities are presented.

  14. Public Health's Falling Share of US Health Spending.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Himmelstein, David U; Woolhandler, Steffie

    2016-01-01

    We examined trends in US public health expenditures by analyzing historical and projected National Health Expenditure Accounts data. Per-capita public health spending (inflation-adjusted) rose from $39 in 1960 to $281 in 2008, and has fallen by 9.3% since then. Public health's share of total health expenditures rose from 1.36% in 1960 to 3.18% in 2002, then fell to 2.65% in 2014; it is projected to fall to 2.40% in 2023. Public health spending has declined, potentially undermining prevention and weakening responses to health inequalities and new health threats.

  15. Biased but in Doubt: Conflict and Decision Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Neys, Wim; Cromheeke, Sofie; Osman, Magda

    2011-01-01

    Human reasoning is often biased by intuitive heuristics. A central question is whether the bias results from a failure to detect that the intuitions conflict with traditional normative considerations or from a failure to discard the tempting intuitions. The present study addressed this unresolved debate by using people's decision confidence as a nonverbal index of conflict detection. Participants were asked to indicate how confident they were after solving classic base-rate (Experiment 1) and conjunction fallacy (Experiment 2) problems in which a cued intuitive response could be inconsistent or consistent with the traditional correct response. Results indicated that reasoners showed a clear confidence decrease when they gave an intuitive response that conflicted with the normative response. Contrary to popular belief, this establishes that people seem to acknowledge that their intuitive answers are not fully warranted. Experiment 3 established that younger reasoners did not yet show the confidence decrease, which points to the role of improved bias awareness in our reasoning development. Implications for the long standing debate on human rationality are discussed. PMID:21283574

  16. CERN confident of LHC start-up in 2007

    CERN Document Server

    Vanden Broeck, Renilde

    2007-01-01

    "Delegates attending the 140th meeting of CERN Council today heard a confident report from the Laboratory about the scheduled start-up of the world's highest energy particle accelerator, the Large Hadron Collier (LHC) in 2007. (1/2 page)

  17. CERN confident of LHC start-up in 2007

    CERN Multimedia

    2006-01-01

    "Delegates attending the 140th meeting of CERN Council today heard a confident report from the Laboratory about the scheduled start-up of the world's highest energy particle accelerator, the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) in 2007." (1/2 page)

  18. Expanding Horizons--Into the Future with Confidence!

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volk, Valerie

    2006-01-01

    Gifted students often show a deep interest in and profound concern for the complex issues of society. Given the leadership potential of these students and their likely responsibility for solving future social problems, they need to develop this awareness and also a sense of confidence in dealing with future issues. The Future Problem Solving…

  19. "Depressive Realism" assessed via Confidence in Decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hancock, J A

    1996-08-01

    There are two currently influential views regarding the link between cognitive distortions and depression. The first states that depressed individuals perceive the world and themselves with a strong negative bias or distortion, and that mentally healthy individuals perceive the word with relative accuracy. The second ''depressive realism'' camp argues that healthy individuals are positively biased and the depressed are relatively unbiased and hence, more realistic. In the present investigation, subjects suffering from major depression, subjects recovered from major depression, and a group of healthy controls were examined with regard to their confidence in answering each of 99 general knowledge questions. Confidence ratings were analysed separately according to correct or incorrect responses. There were no significant differences in performance (i.e. accuracy of answer between the three groups). When answering correctly, depressed subjects were significantly less confident than healthy control subjects. On answering incorrectly, none of the three groups were significantly different in their confidence ratings. These findings support the cognitive distortion view of depression and provide no evidence of ''depressive realism''.

  20. Confidence Testing for Knowledge-Based Global Communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jack, Brady Michael; Liu, Chia-Ju; Chiu, Houn-Lin; Shymansky, James A.

    2009-01-01

    This proposal advocates the position that the use of confidence wagering (CW) during testing can predict the accuracy of a student's test answer selection during between-subject assessments. Data revealed female students were more favorable to taking risks when making CW and less inclined toward risk aversion than their male counterparts. Student…

  1. Confidence building on euro convergence : Evidence from currency options

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Driessen, J.J.A.G.; Perotti, E.

    2011-01-01

    We study the evolution of investor confidence in 1992–1998 over the chance of individual currencies to converge to the Euro, using data on currency option prices. Convergence risk, which may reflect uncertainty over policy commitment as well as exogenous fundamentals, induces a level of implied

  2. Confidence building on Euro convergence: evidence from currency options

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Driessen, J.; Perotti, E.

    2011-01-01

    We study the evolution of investor confidence in 1992-1998 over the chance of individual currencies to converge to the Euro, using data on currency option prices. Convergence risk, which may reflect uncertainty over policy commitment as well as exogenous fundamentals, induces a level of implied

  3. A monitor for consumer confidence in the safety of food

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonge, de J.

    2008-01-01

    Despite the fact that in the developed countries food safety standards are higher than ever, food safety incidents continue to occur frequently. The accumulation of food safety incidents might affect general consumer confidence in the safety of food. Therefore, in this thesis, the concept of general

  4. Disconnections between Teacher Expectations and Student Confidence in Bioethics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanegan, Nikki L.; Price, Laura; Peterson, Jeremy

    2008-01-01

    This study examines how student practice of scientific argumentation using socioscientific bioethics issues affects both teacher expectations of students' general performance and student confidence in their own work. When teachers use bioethical issues in the classroom students can gain not only biology content knowledge but also important…

  5. SOCIAL MEDIA – VITAL INSTRUMENT IN GAINING CONSUMERS CONFIDENCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirela-Cristina VOICU

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Given that, currently, the consumer has become more demanding and organizations face some of the greatest challenges due to the economic climate of recent years, the need to build and cultivate strong relationships has become vital not only for the company's success but also for its survival. And solid relationships are built over time through confidence. Trust is one of the most important elements in the process of purchasing and consumer loyalty; it is difficult to obtain but easy to lose. Companies that are enjoying a high degree of confidence benefit from best quotations for their shares, higher profits and a better retention of the best employees. The effects of the lack of confidence are obvious (unsatisfied consumers, lost sales and very expensive for the company. In this context, through the following paper we seek to bring more understanding on how a company can gain the confidence of consumers given that the forms of communication that consumers prefer and that are gaining momentum currently, are taking place online, especially in the social media.

  6. The Dark and Bloody Mystery: Building Basic Writers' Confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sledd, Robert

    While the roots of students' fear of writing go deep, students fear most the surface of writing. They fear that a person's language indicates the state not only of the mind but of the soul--thus their writing can make them look stupid and morally depraved. This fear of error and lack of confidence prevent students from developing a command of the…

  7. Role perception, job-related tension and organisational confidence ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Role perception, job-related tension and organisational confidence of the village extension workers in Nsukka zone of Enugu State Agricultural Development ... Data for the study were collected through structured questionnaire administered on 44 VEWS selected, using ... their role-expectations as being important. Many of ...

  8. Robust Confidence Interval for a Ratio of Standard Deviations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonett, Douglas G.

    2006-01-01

    Comparing variability of test scores across alternate forms, test conditions, or subpopulations is a fundamental problem in psychometrics. A confidence interval for a ratio of standard deviations is proposed that performs as well as the classic method with normal distributions and performs dramatically better with nonnormal distributions. A simple…

  9. Comparing confidence intervals for Goodman and Kruskal's gamma coefficient

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Ark, L.A.; van Aert, R.C.M.

    2015-01-01

    This study was motivated by the question which type of confidence interval (CI) one should use to summarize sample variance of Goodman and Kruskal's coefficient gamma. In a Monte-Carlo study, we investigated the coverage and computation time of the Goodman-Kruskal CI, the Cliff-consistent CI, the

  10. Confidence Intervals for Assessing Heterogeneity in Generalized Linear Mixed Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagler, Amy E.

    2014-01-01

    Generalized linear mixed models are frequently applied to data with clustered categorical outcomes. The effect of clustering on the response is often difficult to practically assess partly because it is reported on a scale on which comparisons with regression parameters are difficult to make. This article proposes confidence intervals for…

  11. Confidence Judgments in Children's and Adults' Event Recall and Suggestibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roebers, Claudia M.

    2002-01-01

    Three studies investigated the role of 8- and 10-year-olds' and adults' metacognitive monitoring and control processes for unbiased event recall tasks and suggestibility. Findings suggested strong tendencies to overestimate confidence regardless of age and question format. Children did not lack principal metacognitive competencies when questions…

  12. Graphical interpretation of confidence curves in rankit plots

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hyltoft Petersen, Per; Blaabjerg, Ole; Andersen, Marianne

    2004-01-01

    A well-known transformation from the bell-shaped Gaussian (normal) curve to a straight line in the rankit plot is investigated, and a tool for evaluation of the distribution of reference groups is presented. It is based on the confidence intervals for percentiles of the calculated Gaussian distri...

  13. Performance of classification confidence measures in dynamic classifier systems

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Štefka, D.; Holeňa, Martin

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 23, č. 4 (2013), s. 299-319 ISSN 1210-0552 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-17187S Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : classifier combining * dynamic classifier systems * classification confidence Subject RIV: IN - Informatics, Computer Science Impact factor: 0.412, year: 2013

  14. Uncertainty and confidence from the triple-network perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    White, Thomas P.; Engen, Nina Helkjær; Sørensen, Susan

    2014-01-01

    of environmental conditions; (ii) those regions whose activity is robustly affected by our subjective confidence; and (iii) those regions differentially activated at these contrasting times. In further meta-analyses the consistency of activation between these judgement types was assessed. Increased activation...

  15. Confidence in Forced-Choice Recognition: What Underlies the Ratings?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zawadzka, Katarzyna; Higham, Philip A.; Hanczakowski, Maciej

    2017-01-01

    Two-alternative forced-choice recognition tests are commonly used to assess recognition accuracy that is uncontaminated by changes in bias. In such tests, participants are asked to endorse the studied item out of 2 presented alternatives. Participants may be further asked to provide confidence judgments for their recognition decisions. It is often…

  16. Confidence intervals for correlations when data are not normal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bishara, Anthony J; Hittner, James B

    2017-02-01

    With nonnormal data, the typical confidence interval of the correlation (Fisher z') may be inaccurate. The literature has been unclear as to which of several alternative methods should be used instead, and how extreme a violation of normality is needed to justify an alternative. Through Monte Carlo simulation, 11 confidence interval methods were compared, including Fisher z', two Spearman rank-order methods, the Box-Cox transformation, rank-based inverse normal (RIN) transformation, and various bootstrap methods. Nonnormality often distorted the Fisher z' confidence interval-for example, leading to a 95 % confidence interval that had actual coverage as low as 68 %. Increasing the sample size sometimes worsened this problem. Inaccurate Fisher z' intervals could be predicted by a sample kurtosis of at least 2, an absolute sample skewness of at least 1, or significant violations of normality hypothesis tests. Only the Spearman rank-order and RIN transformation methods were universally robust to nonnormality. Among the bootstrap methods, an observed imposed bootstrap came closest to accurate coverage, though it often resulted in an overly long interval. The results suggest that sample nonnormality can justify avoidance of the Fisher z' interval in favor of a more robust alternative. R code for the relevant methods is provided in supplementary materials.

  17. Effects of parental divorce on marital commitment and confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitton, Sarah W; Rhoades, Galena K; Stanley, Scott M; Markman, Howard J

    2008-10-01

    Research on the intergenerational transmission of divorce has demonstrated that compared with offspring of nondivorced parents, those of divorced parents generally have more negative attitudes toward marriage as an institution and are less optimistic about the feasibility of a long-lasting, healthy marriage. It is also possible that when entering marriage themselves, adults whose parents divorced have less personal relationship commitment to their own marriages and less confidence in their own ability to maintain a happy marriage with their spouse. However, this prediction has not been tested. In the current study, we assessed relationship commitment and relationship confidence, as well as parental divorce and retrospectively reported interparental conflict, in a sample of 265 engaged couples prior to their first marriage. Results demonstrated that women's, but not men's, parental divorce was associated with lower relationship commitment and lower relationship confidence. These effects persisted when controlling for the influence of recalled interparental conflict and premarital relationship adjustment. The current findings suggest that women whose parents divorced are more likely to enter marriage with relatively lower commitment to, and confidence in, the future of those marriages, potentially raising their risk for divorce. Copyright 2008 APA, all rights reserved.

  18. North Dakota Leadership Training Boosts Confidence and Involvement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flage, Lynette; Hvidsten, Marie; Vettern, Rachelle

    2012-01-01

    Effective leadership is critical for communities as they work to maintain their vitality and sustainability for years to come. The purpose of the study reported here was to assess confidence levels and community engagement of community leadership program participants in North Dakota State University Extension programs. Through a survey…

  19. Faculty Expressions of (No) Confidence in Institutional Leadership

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frantz, Alan C.; Lawson, Jonathan N.

    2017-01-01

    Although institutions of higher education rarely crumble and fall in the wake of votes of no confidence in their leadership--in presidents, senior administrators, or even governing boards--those expressions of discontent do have meaning. They suggest something awry at the institution, and even the potential to precipitate change. They also present…

  20. Frontline nurse managers' confidence and self-efficacy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Dyk, Jennifer; Siedlecki, Sandra L; Fitzpatrick, Joyce J

    2016-05-01

    This study was focused on determining relationships between confidence levels and self-efficacy among nurse managers. Frontline nurse managers have a pivotal role in delivering high-quality patient care while managing the associated costs and resources. The competency and skill of nurse managers affect every aspect of patient care and staff well-being as nurse managers are largely responsible for creating work environments in which clinical nurses are able to provide high-quality, patient-centred, holistic care. A descriptive, correlational survey design was used; 85 nurse managers participated. Years in a formal leadership role and confidence scores were found to be significant predictors of self-efficacy scores. Experience as a nurse manager is an important component of confidence and self-efficacy. There is a need to develop educational programmes for nurse managers to enhance their self-confidence and self-efficacy, and to maintain experienced nurse managers in the role. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. Academic Behavioural Confidence: A Comparison of Medical and Psychology Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanders, Lalage; Sander, Paul

    2007-01-01

    Introduction. Sander, Stevenson, King and Coates (2000) identified differences between medical students in a conventional university and psychology students in a post-1992 university in their responses to different styles of learning and teaching. Method. It had been hypothesised that differing levels of confidence explained why the former felt…

  2. Gender Difference of Confidence in Using Technology for Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yau, Hon Keung; Cheng, Alison Lai Fong

    2012-01-01

    Past studies have found male students to have more confidence in using technology for learning than do female students. Males tend to have more positive attitudes about the use of technology for learning than do females. According to the Women's Foundation (2006), few studies examined gender relevant research in Hong Kong. It also appears that no…

  3. Concerns and developmental needs of highly confident and less ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The development of this study was based on three assumptions, namely 1) that coaching efficacy (confidence specific to the task of coaching) impacts the performance of coaches, 2) that coaching efficacy is influenced by the individual's procedural and declarative knowledge on coaching, and 3) that coaches do their work ...

  4. Parametric change point estimation, testing and confidence interval ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In many applications like finance, industry and medicine, it is important to consider that the model parameters may undergo changes at unknown moment in time. This paper deals with estimation, testing and confidence interval of a change point for a univariate variable which is assumed to be normally distributed. To detect ...

  5. Exploring the influence of Self-Confidence in Product Sketching

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Passel, Pepijn; Eggink, Wouter; Bohemia, E.; Ion, B.; Kovacevic, A.

    2013-01-01

    The development of a student’s skills during design education partly depends on the amount of selfconfidence. Optimizing the speed and level of growth can be done by influencing factors related to self-confidence that students have to cope with throughout their studies. Six main factors can be

  6. 37 CFR 1.14 - Patent applications preserved in confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 37 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Patent applications preserved in confidence. 1.14 Section 1.14 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights UNITED STATES PATENT AND TRADEMARK OFFICE, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE GENERAL RULES OF PRACTICE IN PATENT CASES General Provisions...

  7. Can traceability improve consumers' confidence in food quality and safety?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rijswijk, van W.; Cornelisse-Vermaat, J.R.; Frewer, L.J.

    2006-01-01

    Abstract This paper investigates whether the implementation of traceability systems in line with the European General Food Law as well as food labelling laws related to allergens can impact on consumer confidence in food quality and safety. It aims to give insight into consumer demands regarding

  8. A general model of confidence building: analysis and implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kilgour, D.M.

    1998-01-01

    For more than two decades, security approaches in Europe have included confidence building. Many have argued that Confidence-Building Measures (CBMS) played an essential role in the enormous transformations that took place there. Thus, it is hardly,surprising that CBMs have been proposed as measures to reduce tensions and transform security relationships elsewhere in the world. The move toward wider application of CBMs has strengthened recently, as conventional military, diplomatic, and humanitarian approaches seem to have failed to address problems associated with peace-building and peace support operations. There is, however, a serious problem. We don't really know why, or even how, CBMs work. Consequently, we have no reliable way to design CBMs that would be appropriate in substance, form, and timing for regions culturally, geographically, and militarily different from Europe. Lacking a solid understanding of confidence building, we are handicapped in our efforts to extend its successes to the domain of peace building and peace support. To paraphrase Macintosh, if we don't know how CBMs succeeded in the past, then we are unlikely to be good at maintaining, improving, or extending them. The specific aim of this project is to step into this gap, using the methods of game theory to clarify some aspects of the underlying logic of confidence building. Formal decision models will be shown to contribute new and valuable insights that will assist in the design of CBMs to contribute to new problems and in new arenas. (author)

  9. The role of consumer confidence in creating customer loyalty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ou, Yi-Chun; de Vries, Lisette; Wiesel, Thorsten; Verhoef, Pieter

    How can firms retain customers during recessions? To answer this question, we investigate the moderating role of consumer confidence (CC) on the effects of three types of crucial customer loyalty strategies. These strategies are value equity (VE), brand equity (BE), and relationship equity (RE),

  10. Planning an Availability Demonstration Test with Consideration of Confidence Level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank Müller

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The full service life of a technical product or system is usually not completed after an initial failure. With appropriate measures, the system can be returned to a functional state. Availability is an important parameter for evaluating such repairable systems: Failure and repair behaviors are required to determine this availability. These data are usually given as mean value distributions with a certain confidence level. Consequently, the availability value also needs to be expressed with a confidence level. This paper first highlights the bootstrap Monte Carlo simulation (BMCS for availability demonstration and inference with confidence intervals based on limited failure and repair data. The BMCS enables point-, steady-state and average availability to be determined with a confidence level based on the pure samples or mean value distributions in combination with the corresponding sample size of failure and repair behavior. Furthermore, the method enables individual sample sizes to be used. A sample calculation of a system with Weibull-distributed failure behavior and a sample of repair times is presented. Based on the BMCS, an extended, new procedure is introduced: the “inverse bootstrap Monte Carlo simulation” (IBMCS to be used for availability demonstration tests with consideration of confidence levels. The IBMCS provides a test plan comprising the required number of failures and repair actions that must be observed to demonstrate a certain availability value. The concept can be applied to each type of availability and can also be applied to the pure samples or distribution functions of failure and repair behavior. It does not require special types of distribution. In other words, for example, a Weibull, a lognormal or an exponential distribution can all be considered as distribution functions of failure and repair behavior. After presenting the IBMCS, a sample calculation will be carried out and the potential of the BMCS and the IBMCS

  11. Inferring high-confidence human protein-protein interactions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Xueping

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background As numerous experimental factors drive the acquisition, identification, and interpretation of protein-protein interactions (PPIs, aggregated assemblies of human PPI data invariably contain experiment-dependent noise. Ascertaining the reliability of PPIs collected from these diverse studies and scoring them to infer high-confidence networks is a non-trivial task. Moreover, a large number of PPIs share the same number of reported occurrences, making it impossible to distinguish the reliability of these PPIs and rank-order them. For example, for the data analyzed here, we found that the majority (>83% of currently available human PPIs have been reported only once. Results In this work, we proposed an unsupervised statistical approach to score a set of diverse, experimentally identified PPIs from nine primary databases to create subsets of high-confidence human PPI networks. We evaluated this ranking method by comparing it with other methods and assessing their ability to retrieve protein associations from a number of diverse and independent reference sets. These reference sets contain known biological data that are either directly or indirectly linked to interactions between proteins. We quantified the average effect of using ranked protein interaction data to retrieve this information and showed that, when compared to randomly ranked interaction data sets, the proposed method created a larger enrichment (~134% than either ranking based on the hypergeometric test (~109% or occurrence ranking (~46%. Conclusions From our evaluations, it was clear that ranked interactions were always of value because higher-ranked PPIs had a higher likelihood of retrieving high-confidence experimental data. Reducing the noise inherent in aggregated experimental PPIs via our ranking scheme further increased the accuracy and enrichment of PPIs derived from a number of biologically relevant data sets. These results suggest that using our high-confidence

  12. A Tale of Five Countries: Background and Confidence in Preservice Primary Teachers in Drama Education across Five Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell-Bowie, Deirdre E.

    2013-01-01

    In many public primary schools across different countries, generalist primary teachers are required to teach all subjects, including music, dance, drama and visual arts. This study investigates the background and confidence of preservice primary teachers from five countries in relation to drama and drama education. It also examines if there is a…

  13. Social Capital Practices as Adaptive Drivers for Local Adjustment of New Public Management in Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olesen, Kristian Gylling; Hasle, Peter; Sørensen, Ole H.

    2016-01-01

    New public management (NPM) reforms have typically undermined teachers' autonomy, values, and status in society. This article questions whether such reforms automatically have these outcomes or whether and how possibilities for local adjustment of such reforms may prevent negative outcomes. Drawing on empirical case studies from two Danish…

  14. A Study of the Right of Learners and Teachers to Quality Public ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Every day, everywhere in the world, the right of learners and teachers to quality public education is violated (Dorsi, 2014). The quality of education is undermined by a deficit of appropriately qualified teachers more particularly in the rural areas. It has been observed that there has been moral decadence in contemporary ...

  15. Confidence assessment. Site descriptive modelling SDM-Site Forsmark

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-09-01

    The objective of this report is to assess the confidence that can be placed in the Forsmark site descriptive model, based on the information available at the conclusion of the surface-based investigations (SDM-Site Forsmark). In this exploration, an overriding question is whether remaining uncertainties are significant for repository engineering design or long-term safety assessment and could successfully be further reduced by more surface based investigations or more usefully by explorations underground made during construction of the repository. The confidence in the Forsmark site descriptive model, based on the data available at the conclusion of the surface-based site investigations, have been assessed by exploring: Confidence in the site characterisation data base; Key remaining issues and their handling; Handling of alternative models; Consistency between disciplines; and, Main reasons for confidence and lack of confidence in the model. It is generally found that the key aspects of importance for safety assessment and repository engineering of the Forsmark site descriptive model are associated with a high degree of confidence. Because of the robust geological model that describes the site, the overall confidence in Forsmark site descriptive model is judged to be high. While some aspects have lower confidence this lack of confidence is handled by providing wider uncertainty ranges, bounding estimates and/or alternative models. Most, but not all, of the low confidence aspects have little impact on repository engineering design or for long-term safety. Poor precision in the measured data are judged to have limited impact on uncertainties on the site descriptive model, with the exceptions of inaccuracy in determining the position of some boreholes at depth in 3-D space, as well as the poor precision of the orientation of BIPS images in some boreholes, and the poor precision of stress data determined by overcoring at the locations where the pre

  16. Undermining Patriarchal Ideology in African Literature: A Study of Ngozi Chuma-Udeh’s Echoes of a New Dawn

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ujowundu Cornel O.

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available In a patriarchal society, women are faced with all sorts of dehumanisation ranging from deprivation, negligence, maltreatment, marginalisation, oppression, subjugation, exploitation, humiliation and even isolation, all of which emanate from aspects of the people’s culture. As a result, women now cry out for such aspects of the culture that undermine their wellbeing and emancipation to be eradicated. They, therefore, struggle for equality and emancipation in the male dominated society, especially the African society under study here. In this direction, literature becomes a tool for them to create awareness that the modern African woman through educational attainments is not just fighting for rights and privileges but also for something that must let the society understand that the women demand equal opportunities as human beings. Literature has, therefore, become a tool used to reflect the harsh realities of human lives, especially by the female writers like Ngozi Chuma-Udeh and some others concerning the socio-political, economic and religious realities of the womenfolk. Since literature has been found a veritable source of inspiration for national consciousness, it has become part of human life and existence, offering light, giving meaning and interpretation to man and his society as he struggles and aspires for a desired and cherished future. In the African society, for instance, women are seen not heard. They live under the shadows of men form their maiden homes to their matrimonial homes hence, they are regarded as second class citizens. They are usually neglected as their opinions are never sought before decisions are taken even in matters that directly affect them. In marriage, proposals are made to their fathers, or other male members of the family in the event of the father’s death. In fact, in the African society, which is under study here, women are seen as mere tools of necessity-housewives, child bearers, gratifiers of men

  17. False memories and memory confidence in borderline patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schilling, Lisa; Wingenfeld, Katja; Spitzer, Carsten; Nagel, Matthias; Moritz, Steffen

    2013-12-01

    Mixed results have been obtained regarding memory in patients with borderline personality disorder (BPD). Prior reports and anecdotal evidence suggests that patients with BPD are prone to false memories but this assumption has to been put to firm empirical test, yet. Memory accuracy and confidence was assessed in 20 BPD patients and 22 healthy controls using a visual variant of the false memory (Deese-Roediger-McDermott) paradigm which involved a negative and a positive-valenced picture. Groups did not differ regarding veridical item recognition. Importantly, patients did not display more false memories than controls. At trend level, borderline patients rated more items as new with high confidence compared to healthy controls. The results tentatively suggest that borderline patients show uncompromised visual memory functions and display no increased susceptibility for distorted memories. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Probabilistic confidence for decisions based on uncertain reliability estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reid, Stuart G.

    2013-05-01

    Reliability assessments are commonly carried out to provide a rational basis for risk-informed decisions concerning the design or maintenance of engineering systems and structures. However, calculated reliabilities and associated probabilities of failure often have significant uncertainties associated with the possible estimation errors relative to the 'true' failure probabilities. For uncertain probabilities of failure, a measure of 'probabilistic confidence' has been proposed to reflect the concern that uncertainty about the true probability of failure could result in a system or structure that is unsafe and could subsequently fail. The paper describes how the concept of probabilistic confidence can be applied to evaluate and appropriately limit the probabilities of failure attributable to particular uncertainties such as design errors that may critically affect the dependability of risk-acceptance decisions. This approach is illustrated with regard to the dependability of structural design processes based on prototype testing with uncertainties attributable to sampling variability.

  19. Profile-likelihood Confidence Intervals in Item Response Theory Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chalmers, R Philip; Pek, Jolynn; Liu, Yang

    2017-01-01

    Confidence intervals (CIs) are fundamental inferential devices which quantify the sampling variability of parameter estimates. In item response theory, CIs have been primarily obtained from large-sample Wald-type approaches based on standard error estimates, derived from the observed or expected information matrix, after parameters have been estimated via maximum likelihood. An alternative approach to constructing CIs is to quantify sampling variability directly from the likelihood function with a technique known as profile-likelihood confidence intervals (PL CIs). In this article, we introduce PL CIs for item response theory models, compare PL CIs to classical large-sample Wald-type CIs, and demonstrate important distinctions among these CIs. CIs are then constructed for parameters directly estimated in the specified model and for transformed parameters which are often obtained post-estimation. Monte Carlo simulation results suggest that PL CIs perform consistently better than Wald-type CIs for both non-transformed and transformed parameters.

  20. Replication, falsification, and the crisis of confidence in social psychology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Earp, Brian D; Trafimow, David

    2015-01-01

    The (latest) crisis in confidence in social psychology has generated much heated discussion about the importance of replication, including how it should be carried out as well as interpreted by scholars in the field. For example, what does it mean if a replication attempt "fails"-does it mean that the original results, or the theory that predicted them, have been falsified? And how should "failed" replications affect our belief in the validity of the original research? In this paper, we consider the replication debate from a historical and philosophical perspective, and provide a conceptual analysis of both replication and falsification as they pertain to this important discussion. Along the way, we highlight the importance of auxiliary assumptions (for both testing theories and attempting replications), and introduce a Bayesian framework for assessing "failed" replications in terms of how they should affect our confidence in original findings.

  1. Replication, falsification, and the crisis of confidence in social psychology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Earp, Brian D.; Trafimow, David

    2015-01-01

    The (latest) crisis in confidence in social psychology has generated much heated discussion about the importance of replication, including how it should be carried out as well as interpreted by scholars in the field. For example, what does it mean if a replication attempt “fails”—does it mean that the original results, or the theory that predicted them, have been falsified? And how should “failed” replications affect our belief in the validity of the original research? In this paper, we consider the replication debate from a historical and philosophical perspective, and provide a conceptual analysis of both replication and falsification as they pertain to this important discussion. Along the way, we highlight the importance of auxiliary assumptions (for both testing theories and attempting replications), and introduce a Bayesian framework for assessing “failed” replications in terms of how they should affect our confidence in original findings. PMID:26042061

  2. Confidence Level Computation for Combining Searches with Small Statistics

    OpenAIRE

    Junk, Thomas

    1999-01-01

    This article describes an efficient procedure for computing approximate confidence levels for searches for new particles where the expected signal and background levels are small enough to require the use of Poisson statistics. The results of many independent searches for the same particle may be combined easily, regardless of the discriminating variables which may be measured for the candidate events. The effects of systematic uncertainty in the signal and background models are incorporated ...

  3. Social acceptance and population confidence in telehealth in Quebec.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poder, Thomas G; Bellemare, Christian A; Bédard, Suzanne K; Lemieux, Renald

    2015-02-21

    Access to healthcare in remote areas is difficult and telehealth could be a promising avenue if accepted by the population. The aim of this study is to assess social acceptance and population confidence in telehealth in the Province of Quebec. We conducted a survey using a questionnaire assessing the social acceptance of and confidence level in telehealth. Two strategies were used: 1) paper questionnaires were sent to two hospitals in Quebec; and 2) online questionnaires were randomly sent by a firm specialized in online survey to a representative sample of the population of the Province of Quebec. Respondents were all residents of the Province of Quebec and 18 years and older. Questions were scored with a four-level Likert scale. A total of 1816 questionnaires were analyzed (229 written and 1,587 online questionnaires). The socio-demographic variables in our samples, especially the online questionnaires, were fairly representative of Quebec's population. Overall, social acceptance scored at 77.71% and confidence level at 65.76%. Both scores were higher in the case of treatment (3 scenarios were proposed) vs. diagnosis (p < 0.05). No difference was found when respondents were asked to respond for themselves and for a member of their family, which demonstrates a true interest in telehealth in Quebec. In addition, we found a significant difference (p < 0.05) between written and online questionnaires regarding social acceptance (80.75% vs. 77.33%) and confidence level (74.84% vs. 64.55%). These differences may be due to social desirability or avidity bias in the written questionnaires. Our results suggest that the population in Quebec encourages the development of telehealth for real time diagnosis and long distance treatment for regions deprived of healthcare professionals.

  4. INTERVENTIONS FOR INCREASING BALANCE & CONFIDENCE IN OLDER ADULTS: A REVIEW

    OpenAIRE

    Foram Dhebar

    2014-01-01

    Elderly is defined as being 65 years of age or older. Geriatrics or geriatric medicine is a specialty that focuses on health care of elderly people. The number of persons above the age of 60 years is fast growing, especially in India. Falls are the leading cause of traumatic brain injury, fractures & the leading cause of emergency department visits by older adults. Low balance confidence is a major health problem among older adults restricting their participation in daily life. Objective of t...

  5. Confidence and Use of Communication Skills in Medical Students

    OpenAIRE

    Mahnaz Jalalvandi; Akhtar Jamali; Ali Taghipoor-Zahir; Mohammad-Reza Sohrabi

    2014-01-01

    Background: Well-designed interventions can improve the communication skills of physicians. Since the understanding of the current situation is essential for designing effective interventions, this study was performed to determine medical interns’ confidence and use of communication skills.Materials and Methods: This descriptive-analytical study was performed in spring 2013 within 3 branches of Islamic Azad University (Tehran, Mashhad, and Yazd), on 327 randomly selected interns. Data gatheri...

  6. Fisher.py: Fisher Matrix Manipulation and Confidence Contour Plotting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coe, Dan

    2010-10-01

    Fisher.py allows you to combine constraints from multiple experiments (e.g., weak lensing + supernovae) and add priors (e.g., a flat universe) simply and easily. Calculate parameter uncertainties and plot confidence ellipses. Fisher matrix expectations for several experiments are included as calculated by myself (time delays) and the Dark Energy Task Force (WL/SN/BAO/CL/CMB), or provide your own.

  7. Effects of Parental Divorce on Marital Commitment and Confidence

    OpenAIRE

    Whitton, Sarah W.; Rhoades, Galena K.; Stanley, Scott M.; Markman, Howard J.

    2008-01-01

    Research on the intergenerational transmission of divorce has demonstrated that, compared to offspring of non-divorced parents, those of divorced parents generally have more negative attitudes towards marriage as an institution and are less optimistic about the feasibility of a long-lasting, healthy marriage. It is also possible that, when entering marriage themselves, adults whose parents divorced have less personal relationship commitment to their own marriages and less confidence in their ...

  8. Autism Spectrum Disorder and High Confidence Gene Factors

    OpenAIRE

    Mai, MOCHIZUKI

    2017-01-01

    Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a neurological developmental disorder whose mechanism isyet unclear. However, recent ASD studies, which employ exome- and genome-wide sequencing,have identified some high-confidence ASD genes. Those ASD studies have revealed that CHD8is likely associated with ASD. In this article, we highlight that CHD8 may regulate othercandidate ASD risk genes. Current research indicates that there exist some thousand autismsusceptibility candidate genes. Moreover, we sugge...

  9. Simultaneous confidence bands for Cox regression from semiparametric random censorship.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mondal, Shoubhik; Subramanian, Sundarraman

    2016-01-01

    Cox regression is combined with semiparametric random censorship models to construct simultaneous confidence bands (SCBs) for subject-specific survival curves. Simulation results are presented to compare the performance of the proposed SCBs with the SCBs that are based only on standard Cox. The new SCBs provide correct empirical coverage and are more informative. The proposed SCBs are illustrated with two real examples. An extension to handle missing censoring indicators is also outlined.

  10. Re-thinking accountability: trust versus confidence in medical practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Checkland, K; Marshall, M; Harrison, S

    2004-04-01

    In seeking to prevent a reoccurrence of scandals such as that involving cardiac surgery in Bristol, the UK government has adopted a model of regulation that uses rules and surveillance as a way of both improving the quality of care delivered and increasing confidence in healthcare institutions. However, this approach may actually act to reduce confidence and trust while also reducing the moral motivation of practitioners. Accountability in health care is discussed, and it is suggested that openness about the difficult dilemmas that arise when practitioners have a duty to be accountable to more than one audience may be an alternative means of restoring trust. A greater emphasis on the sharing of information between individual health professionals and their patients would increase trust and would allow patients to hold their doctors to account for the quality of care they receive. Concentrating more on developing trust by the sharing of information and less on the futile search for complete confidence in systems and rules may improve the quality of care delivered while also nurturing the moral motivation of professionals upon which the delivery of high quality health care depends.

  11. Teachers and Counselors: Building Math Confidence in Schools

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph M. Furner

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Mathematics teachers need to take on the role of counselors in addressing the math anxious in today's math classrooms. This paper looks at the impact math anxiety has on the future of young adults in our high-tech society. Teachers and professional school counselors are encouraged to work together to prevent and reduce math anxiety. It is important that all students feel confident in their ability to do mathematics in an age that relies so heavily on problem solving, technology, science, and mathematics. It really is a school's obligation to see that their students value and feel confident in their ability to do math, because ultimately a child's life: all decisions they will make and careers choices may be determined based on their disposition toward mathematics. This paper raises some interesting questions and provides some strategies (See Appendix A for teachers and counselors for addressing the issue of math anxiety while discussing the importance of developing mathematically confident young people for a high-tech world of STEM.

  12. Quantifying uncertainty on sediment loads using bootstrap confidence intervals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slaets, Johanna I. F.; Piepho, Hans-Peter; Schmitter, Petra; Hilger, Thomas; Cadisch, Georg

    2017-01-01

    Load estimates are more informative than constituent concentrations alone, as they allow quantification of on- and off-site impacts of environmental processes concerning pollutants, nutrients and sediment, such as soil fertility loss, reservoir sedimentation and irrigation channel siltation. While statistical models used to predict constituent concentrations have been developed considerably over the last few years, measures of uncertainty on constituent loads are rarely reported. Loads are the product of two predictions, constituent concentration and discharge, integrated over a time period, which does not make it straightforward to produce a standard error or a confidence interval. In this paper, a linear mixed model is used to estimate sediment concentrations. A bootstrap method is then developed that accounts for the uncertainty in the concentration and discharge predictions, allowing temporal correlation in the constituent data, and can be used when data transformations are required. The method was tested for a small watershed in Northwest Vietnam for the period 2010-2011. The results showed that confidence intervals were asymmetric, with the highest uncertainty in the upper limit, and that a load of 6262 Mg year-1 had a 95 % confidence interval of (4331, 12 267) in 2010 and a load of 5543 Mg an interval of (3593, 8975) in 2011. Additionally, the approach demonstrated that direct estimates from the data were biased downwards compared to bootstrap median estimates. These results imply that constituent loads predicted from regression-type water quality models could frequently be underestimating sediment yields and their environmental impact.

  13. Effect size, confidence intervals and statistical power in psychological research.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Téllez A.

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Quantitative psychological research is focused on detecting the occurrence of certain population phenomena by analyzing data from a sample, and statistics is a particularly helpful mathematical tool that is used by researchers to evaluate hypotheses and make decisions to accept or reject such hypotheses. In this paper, the various statistical tools in psychological research are reviewed. The limitations of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST and the advantages of using effect size and its respective confidence intervals are explained, as the latter two measurements can provide important information about the results of a study. These measurements also can facilitate data interpretation and easily detect trivial effects, enabling researchers to make decisions in a more clinically relevant fashion. Moreover, it is recommended to establish an appropriate sample size by calculating the optimum statistical power at the moment that the research is designed. Psychological journal editors are encouraged to follow APA recommendations strictly and ask authors of original research studies to report the effect size, its confidence intervals, statistical power and, when required, any measure of clinical significance. Additionally, we must account for the teaching of statistics at the graduate level. At that level, students do not receive sufficient information concerning the importance of using different types of effect sizes and their confidence intervals according to the different types of research designs; instead, most of the information is focused on the various tools of NHST.

  14. Continuous Opinion Dynamics Under Bounded Confidence:. a Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorenz, Jan

    Models of continuous opinion dynamics under bounded confidence have been presented independently by Krause and Hegselmann and by Deffuant et al. in 2000. They have raised a fair amount of attention in the communities of social simulation, sociophysics and complexity science. The researchers working on it come from disciplines such as physics, mathematics, computer science, social psychology and philosophy. In these models agents hold continuous opinions which they can gradually adjust if they hear the opinions of others. The idea of bounded confidence is that agents only interact if they are close in opinion to each other. Usually, the models are analyzed with agent-based simulations in a Monte Carlo style, but they can also be reformulated on the agent's density in the opinion space in a master equation style. The contribution of this survey is fourfold. First, it will present the agent-based and density-based modeling frameworks including the cases of multidimensional opinions and heterogeneous bounds of confidence. Second, it will give the bifurcation diagrams of cluster configuration in the homogeneous model with uniformly distributed initial opinions. Third, it will review the several extensions and the evolving phenomena which have been studied so far, and fourth it will state some open questions.

  15. Confidence limits for parameters of Poisson and binomial distributions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnett, L.M.

    1976-04-01

    The confidence limits for the frequency in a Poisson process and for the proportion of successes in a binomial process were calculated and tabulated for the situations in which the observed values of the frequency or proportion and an a priori distribution of these parameters are available. Methods are used that produce limits with exactly the stated confidence levels. The confidence interval [a,b] is calculated so that Pr [a less than or equal to lambda less than or equal to b c,μ], where c is the observed value of the parameter, and μ is the a priori hypothesis of the distribution of this parameter. A Bayesian type analysis is used. The intervals calculated are narrower and appreciably different from results, known to be conservative, that are often used in problems of this type. Pearson and Hartley recognized the characteristics of their methods and contemplated that exact methods could someday be used. The calculation of the exact intervals requires involved numerical analyses readily implemented only on digital computers not available to Pearson and Hartley. A Monte Carlo experiment was conducted to verify a selected interval from those calculated. This numerical experiment confirmed the results of the analytical methods and the prediction of Pearson and Hartley that their published tables give conservative results

  16. Influence of a School-Based Cooking Course on Students' Food Preferences, Cooking Skills, and Confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zahr, Rola; Sibeko, Lindiwe

    2017-03-01

    A quasi-experimental study was conducted to evaluate the influence of Project CHEF, a hands-on cooking and tasting program offered in Vancouver public schools, on students' food preferences, cooking skills, and confidence. Grade 4 and 5 students in an intervention group (n = 68) and a comparison group (n = 32) completed a survey at baseline and 2 to 3 weeks later. Students who participated in Project CHEF reported an increased familiarity and preference for the foods introduced through the program. This was statistically significant (P ≤ 0.05) for broccoli, swiss chard, carrots, and quinoa. A higher percentage of students exposed to Project CHEF reported a statistically significant increase (P ≤ 0.05) in: cutting vegetables and fruit (97% vs 81%), measuring ingredients (67% vs 44%), using a knife (94% vs 82%), and making a balanced meal on their own (69% vs 34%). They also reported a statistically significant increase (P ≤ 0.05) in confidence making the recipes introduced in the program: fruit salad (85% vs 81%), minestrone soup (25% vs 10%), and vegetable tofu stir fry (39% vs 26%). Involving students in hands-on cooking and tasting programs can increase their preferences for unpopular or unfamiliar foods and provide them with the skills and cooking confidence they need to prepare balanced meals.

  17. Social Trust and Confidence in the Management of Long Lived Radioactive Wastes: Qualitative Data from France

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mays, Claire [Inst. Symlog, Cachan (France); Charron, Sylvie; Brenot, Jean [IRSN-DPHD-SEGR, Fontenay-aux-Roses (France)

    2003-10-01

    given much thought in the past. These long exchanges often concerned the trustworthiness of risk managers or public authorities in general, and statements about RWM were made by extension. In France, there has been little broad national public discussion of RWM in a serene context; the subject recently has come up in dramatic circumstances of polarization between public authorities and local communities resisting underground laboratory siting. Mays suggests that widespread negative views on the manageability of LLiRW may indeed be a direct consequence of the passive role consented to members of the public and recommends involving stakeholders in deliberation about RWM choices unconstrained by pressure to deliver a site. Interviewee statements from the present study concerning openness and credibility might give insight on how to enter or conduct such discussion on less polarized grounds. Limousine interviewees were sensitive to the 'fundamental contradiction that we are saying at the same time, 'there is no risk, but there is a risk''. Peoples' ability to identify contradictions seems to render credibility impossible, especially when an institution seeks to communicate both a low risk estimate and the efforts made to control and mitigate that risk. A key to overcoming this handicap may reside in the ideal expressed time after time by the 'uninvolved' population: tell the bad news along with the good. Credibility might grow over time if RWM institutions openly recognized the 'negative side' of risks to health and to the environment from wastes, and the uncertainties regarding their management, along with their confidence in proposed technological solutions. Openly acknowledging the risk eliminates the contradiction that awakens people's mistrust, and gives meaning to the management efforts they see.

  18. Social Trust and Confidence in the Management of Long Lived Radioactive Wastes: Qualitative Data from France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mays, Claire; Charron, Sylvie; Brenot, Jean

    2003-01-01

    the past. These long exchanges often concerned the trustworthiness of risk managers or public authorities in general, and statements about RWM were made by extension. In France, there has been little broad national public discussion of RWM in a serene context; the subject recently has come up in dramatic circumstances of polarization between public authorities and local communities resisting underground laboratory siting. Mays suggests that widespread negative views on the manageability of LLiRW may indeed be a direct consequence of the passive role consented to members of the public and recommends involving stakeholders in deliberation about RWM choices unconstrained by pressure to deliver a site. Interviewee statements from the present study concerning openness and credibility might give insight on how to enter or conduct such discussion on less polarized grounds. Limousine interviewees were sensitive to the 'fundamental contradiction that we are saying at the same time, 'there is no risk, but there is a risk''. Peoples' ability to identify contradictions seems to render credibility impossible, especially when an institution seeks to communicate both a low risk estimate and the efforts made to control and mitigate that risk. A key to overcoming this handicap may reside in the ideal expressed time after time by the 'uninvolved' population: tell the bad news along with the good. Credibility might grow over time if RWM institutions openly recognized the 'negative side' of risks to health and to the environment from wastes, and the uncertainties regarding their management, along with their confidence in proposed technological solutions. Openly acknowledging the risk eliminates the contradiction that awakens people's mistrust, and gives meaning to the management efforts they see

  19. Exact nonparametric confidence bands for the survivor function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, David

    2013-10-12

    A method to produce exact simultaneous confidence bands for the empirical cumulative distribution function that was first described by Owen, and subsequently corrected by Jager and Wellner, is the starting point for deriving exact nonparametric confidence bands for the survivor function of any positive random variable. We invert a nonparametric likelihood test of uniformity, constructed from the Kaplan-Meier estimator of the survivor function, to obtain simultaneous lower and upper bands for the function of interest with specified global confidence level. The method involves calculating a null distribution and associated critical value for each observed sample configuration. However, Noe recursions and the Van Wijngaarden-Decker-Brent root-finding algorithm provide the necessary tools for efficient computation of these exact bounds. Various aspects of the effect of right censoring on these exact bands are investigated, using as illustrations two observational studies of survival experience among non-Hodgkin's lymphoma patients and a much larger group of subjects with advanced lung cancer enrolled in trials within the North Central Cancer Treatment Group. Monte Carlo simulations confirm the merits of the proposed method of deriving simultaneous interval estimates of the survivor function across the entire range of the observed sample. This research was supported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC) of Canada. It was begun while the author was visiting the Department of Statistics, University of Auckland, and completed during a subsequent sojourn at the Medical Research Council Biostatistics Unit in Cambridge. The support of both institutions, in addition to that of NSERC and the University of Waterloo, is greatly appreciated.

  20. The Central Intelligence Agency’s Armed Remotely Piloted Vehicle-Supported Counter-Insurgency Campaign In Pakistan – A Mission Undermined By Unintended Consequences?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon Bennett

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper views America's 'drones-first' counter-insurgency effort in Pakistan through the lens of Merton's theory of the unintended consequences of purposive action. It also references Beck’s Risk Society thesis, America’s Revolution in Military Affairs doctrine, Toft’s theory of isomorphic learning, Langer’s theory of mindfulness, Highly Reliable Organisations theory and the social construction of technology (SCOT argument. With reference to Merton’s theory, the CIA-directed armed Remotely Piloted Vehicle (RPV campaign has manifest functions, latent functions and latent dysfunctions. Measured against numbers of suspected insurgents killed, the campaign can be judged a success. Measured against the level of collateral damage or the state of US-Pakistan relations, the campaign can be judged a failure. Values determine the choice of metrics. Because RPV operations eliminate risk to American service personnel, and because this is popular with both US citizens and politicians, collateral damage (the killing of civilians is not considered a policy-changing dysfunction. However, the latent dysfunctions of America's drones-first policy may be so great as to undermine that policy's intended manifest function – to make a net contribution to the War on Terror. In Vietnam the latent dysfunctions of Westmoreland’s attritional war undermined America’s policy of containment. Vietnam holds a lesson for the Obama administration.

  1. Disarmament and confidence-building in North-East Asia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Il Nam

    1992-01-01

    Disarmament and confidence building are essential issues to be addressed urgently as they are directly linked with national security. The successful solutions of this issue will ensure world peace and security. These statements have special significance if applied to the situation in North-East Asia and particularly Korean Peninsula. Even under the circumstances of the continued existence of the United States Nuclear Threat, the Government of North Korea has concluded a safeguards agreement and has been inspected by IAEA, thus indicating constant effort to denuclearize the Korean peninsula

  2. On a linear method in bootstrap confidence intervals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Pallini

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available A linear method for the construction of asymptotic bootstrap confidence intervals is proposed. We approximate asymptotically pivotal and non-pivotal quantities, which are smooth functions of means of n independent and identically distributed random variables, by using a sum of n independent smooth functions of the same analytical form. Errors are of order Op(n-3/2 and Op(n-2, respectively. The linear method allows a straightforward approximation of bootstrap cumulants, by considering the set of n independent smooth functions as an original random sample to be resampled with replacement.

  3. Establishing Quantitative Within-Subject Confidence Limits For Clinical Stereoroentgenographs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korn, Edward L.; Baumrind, Sheldon; Chafetz, Neil; Curry, Sean; Moffitt, Francis

    1983-07-01

    It is now quite clear that under ideal conditions, discrete points can be located on x-ray films with standard deviations of less than 50 i. However, under routine clinical conditions, such considerations as individual variation in anatomy, movement of the subject between exposures, and variations in image quality combine to produce considerable reductions in the confidence which can be placed in quantitative assessments made from stereoroentgenographic films. This paper discusses some considerations involved in designing mathematical models in such a way as to optimize the use of imperfect data in answering specific clinical questions.

  4. Confidence bounds for nonlinear dose-response relationships

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baayen, C; Hougaard, P

    2015-01-01

    An important aim of drug trials is to characterize the dose-response relationship of a new compound. Such a relationship can often be described by a parametric (nonlinear) function that is monotone in dose. If such a model is fitted, it is useful to know the uncertainty of the fitted curve...... intervals for the dose-response curve. These confidence bounds have better coverage than Wald intervals and are more precise and generally faster than bootstrap methods. Moreover, if monotonicity is assumed, the profile likelihood approach takes this automatically into account. The approach is illustrated...

  5. FDAAA legislation is working, but methodological flaws undermine the reliability of clinical trials: a cross-sectional study

    OpenAIRE

    Douglas H. Marin dos Santos; Álvaro N. Atallah

    2015-01-01

    The relationship between clinical research and the pharmaceutical industry has placed clinical trials in jeopardy. According to the medical literature, more than 70% of clinical trials are industry-funded. Many of these trials remain unpublished or have methodological flaws that distort their results. In 2007, it was signed into law the Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act (FDAAA), aiming to provide publicly access to a broad range of biomedical information to be made available on the ...

  6. Empowerment as Interactions that Generate Self-Confidence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poder, Poul

    2010-01-01

    to address this gap in understanding by theorizing how confidence and other positive emotions contribute to personal agency, which is an essential aspect of the empowerment process.                       It is generally understood that confidence – meaning faith in oneself as opposed to conceit or arrogance...... by particular social interactions that promote recognition and access to relevant resources for action. Drawing on emotion-focused sociological theory about agency and emotional energy, and Fredrickson’s ‘build and broaden’ theory of positive emotions, I argue that the focus on consciousness and intentionality...... as the defining features of human agency has led us to downplay the fact that agency is primarily an emotional phenomenon. As such, it is also dynamic and situational, since it is highly dependent on interactions that engender emotional energy and positive emotions that fuel and widen agency. As an example...

  7. Protein Correlation Profiles Identify Lipid Droplet Proteins with High Confidence*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krahmer, Natalie; Hilger, Maximiliane; Kory, Nora; Wilfling, Florian; Stoehr, Gabriele; Mann, Matthias; Farese, Robert V.; Walther, Tobias C.

    2013-01-01

    Lipid droplets (LDs) are important organelles in energy metabolism and lipid storage. Their cores are composed of neutral lipids that form a hydrophobic phase and are surrounded by a phospholipid monolayer that harbors specific proteins. Most well-established LD proteins perform important functions, particularly in cellular lipid metabolism. Morphological studies show LDs in close proximity to and interacting with membrane-bound cellular organelles, including the endoplasmic reticulum, mitochondria, peroxisomes, and endosomes. Because of these close associations, it is difficult to purify LDs to homogeneity. Consequently, the confident identification of bona fide LD proteins via proteomics has been challenging. Here, we report a methodology for LD protein identification based on mass spectrometry and protein correlation profiles. Using LD purification and quantitative, high-resolution mass spectrometry, we identified LD proteins by correlating their purification profiles to those of known LD proteins. Application of the protein correlation profile strategy to LDs isolated from Drosophila S2 cells led to the identification of 111 LD proteins in a cellular LD fraction in which 1481 proteins were detected. LD localization was confirmed in a subset of identified proteins via microscopy of the expressed proteins, thereby validating the approach. Among the identified LD proteins were both well-characterized LD proteins and proteins not previously known to be localized to LDs. Our method provides a high-confidence LD proteome of Drosophila cells and a novel approach that can be applied to identify LD proteins of other cell types and tissues. PMID:23319140

  8. Inter-Korean military confidence building after 2003.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tae-woo, Kim (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea); Littlefield, Adriane C.; Vannoni, Michael Geoffrey; Sang-beom, Kim (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea); Koelm, Jennifer Gay; Olsen, John Norman; Myong-jin, Kim (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea); Sung-tack, Shin (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea)

    2003-08-01

    Tensions on the Korean Peninsula remain high despite a long-term strategy by South Korea to increase inter-Korean exchanges in economics, culture, sports, and other topics. This is because the process of reconciliation has rarely extended to military and security topics and those initiatives that were negotiated have been ineffective. Bilateral interactions must include actions to reduce threats and improve confidence associated with conventional military forces (land, sea, and air) as well as nuclear, chemical, and biological activities that are applicable to developing and producing weapons of mass destruction (WMD). The purpose of this project is to develop concepts for inter-Korean confidence building measures (CBMs) for military and WMD topics that South Korea could propose to the North when conditions are right. This report describes the historical and policy context for developing security-related CBMs and presents an array of bilateral options for conventional military and WMD topics within a consistent framework. The conceptual CBMs address two scenarios: (1) improved relations where construction of a peace regime becomes a full agenda item in inter-Korean dialogue, and (2) continued tense inter-Korean relations. Some measures could be proposed in the short term under current conditions, others might be implemented in a series of steps, while some require a higher level of cooperation than currently exists. To support decision making by political leaders, this research focuses on strategies and policy options and does not include technical details.

  9. Voter model with arbitrary degree dependence: clout, confidence and irreversibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fotouhi, Babak; Rabbat, Michael G.

    2014-03-01

    The voter model is widely used to model opinion dynamics in society. In this paper, we propose three modifications to incorporate heterogeneity into the model. We address the corresponding oversimplifications of the conventional voter model which are unrealistic. We first consider the voter model with popularity bias. The influence of each node on its neighbors depends on its degree. We find the consensus probabilities and expected consensus times for each of the states. We also find the fixation probability, which is the probability that a single node whose state differs from every other node imposes its state on the entire system. In addition, we find the expected fixation time. Then two other extensions to the model are proposed and the motivations behind them are discussed. The first one is confidence, where in addition to the states of neighbors, nodes take their own state into account at each update. We repeat the calculations for the augmented model and investigate the effects of adding confidence to the model. The second proposed extension is irreversibility, where one of the states is given the property that once nodes adopt it, they cannot switch back. This is motivated by applications where, agents take an irreversible action such as seeing a movie, purchasing a music album online, or buying a new product. The dynamics of densities, fixation times and consensus times are obtained.

  10. Confidence Intervals for Asbestos Fiber Counts: Approximate Negative Binomial Distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartley, David; Slaven, James; Harper, Martin

    2017-03-01

    The negative binomial distribution is adopted for analyzing asbestos fiber counts so as to account for both the sampling errors in capturing only a finite number of fibers and the inevitable human variation in identifying and counting sampled fibers. A simple approximation to this distribution is developed for the derivation of quantiles and approximate confidence limits. The success of the approximation depends critically on the use of Stirling's expansion to sufficient order, on exact normalization of the approximating distribution, on reasonable perturbation of quantities from the normal distribution, and on accurately approximating sums by inverse-trapezoidal integration. Accuracy of the approximation developed is checked through simulation and also by comparison to traditional approximate confidence intervals in the specific case that the negative binomial distribution approaches the Poisson distribution. The resulting statistics are shown to relate directly to early research into the accuracy of asbestos sampling and analysis. Uncertainty in estimating mean asbestos fiber concentrations given only a single count is derived. Decision limits (limits of detection) and detection limits are considered for controlling false-positive and false-negative detection assertions and are compared to traditional limits computed assuming normal distributions. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Occupational Hygiene Society 2017.

  11. Robust, Efficient Depth Reconstruction With Hierarchical Confidence-Based Matching.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Li; Chen, Ke; Song, Mingli; Tao, Dacheng; Chen, Gang; Chen, Chun

    2017-07-01

    In recent years, taking photos and capturing videos with mobile devices have become increasingly popular. Emerging applications based on the depth reconstruction technique have been developed, such as Google lens blur. However, depth reconstruction is difficult due to occlusions, non-diffuse surfaces, repetitive patterns, and textureless surfaces, and it has become more difficult due to the unstable image quality and uncontrolled scene condition in the mobile setting. In this paper, we present a novel hierarchical framework with multi-view confidence-based matching for robust, efficient depth reconstruction in uncontrolled scenes. Particularly, the proposed framework combines local cost aggregation with global cost optimization in a complementary manner that increases efficiency and accuracy. A depth map is efficiently obtained in a coarse-to-fine manner by using an image pyramid. Moreover, confidence maps are computed to robustly fuse multi-view matching cues, and to constrain the stereo matching on a finer scale. The proposed framework has been evaluated with challenging indoor and outdoor scenes, and has achieved robust and efficient depth reconstruction.

  12. Generalized Confidence Intervals and Fiducial Intervals for Some Epidemiological Measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ionut Bebu

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available For binary outcome data from epidemiological studies, this article investigates the interval estimation of several measures of interest in the absence or presence of categorical covariates. When covariates are present, the logistic regression model as well as the log-binomial model are investigated. The measures considered include the common odds ratio (OR from several studies, the number needed to treat (NNT, and the prevalence ratio. For each parameter, confidence intervals are constructed using the concepts of generalized pivotal quantities and fiducial quantities. Numerical results show that the confidence intervals so obtained exhibit satisfactory performance in terms of maintaining the coverage probabilities even when the sample sizes are not large. An appealing feature of the proposed solutions is that they are not based on maximization of the likelihood, and hence are free from convergence issues associated with the numerical calculation of the maximum likelihood estimators, especially in the context of the log-binomial model. The results are illustrated with a number of examples. The overall conclusion is that the proposed methodologies based on generalized pivotal quantities and fiducial quantities provide an accurate and unified approach for the interval estimation of the various epidemiological measures in the context of binary outcome data with or without covariates.

  13. Curling for Confidence: Psychophysical Benefits of Curling for Older Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stone, Rachael C; Rakhamilova, Zina; Gage, William H; Baker, Joseph

    2018-04-01

    While physical activity is increasingly promoted for older adults, there is a paucity of sport promotion, which has distinct benefits from exercise and remains stereotypically associated with younger age. Curling is a moderately intense and safe sport that continues to gain popularity; however, no research has investigated psychophysical benefits of curling for older adults. The present study compares high-experience (20+ years; n = 63) and low-experience (<20 years; n = 53) curlers (aged 60+ years) with older adult noncurlers (n = 44) on measures of daily functionality, balance confidence, and perceptions of the aging process. While no significant differences were found between high- and low-experience curlers, any level of experience reported significantly better functionality, physical confidence, and aging attitudes compared to noncurlers (p ≤ .05). Although further research is necessary, the results suggest that any level of curling experience can enhance older adult psychophysical well-being, and warrants consideration for physical activity promotion and falls prevention programs.

  14. On the need and use of models to explore the role of economic confidence:a survey.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sprigg, James A.; Paez, Paul J. (University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM); Hand, Michael S. (University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM)

    2005-04-01

    Empirical studies suggest that consumption is more sensitive to current income than suggested under the permanent income hypothesis, which raises questions regarding expectations for future income, risk aversion, and the role of economic confidence measures. This report surveys a body of fundamental economic literature as well as burgeoning computational modeling methods to support efforts to better anticipate cascading economic responses to terrorist threats and attacks. This is a three part survey to support the incorporation of models of economic confidence into agent-based microeconomic simulations. We first review broad underlying economic principles related to this topic. We then review the economic principle of confidence and related empirical studies. Finally, we provide a brief survey of efforts and publications related to agent-based economic simulation.

  15. Perceived Uncertainty and Organizational Health in Public Schools: The Mediating Effect of School Principals' Transformational Leadership Style

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hameiri, Lior; Nir, Adam

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: Public schools operate in a changing and dynamic environment evident in technological innovations, increased social heterogeneity and competition, all contributing to school leaders' uncertainty. Such changes inevitably influence schools' inner dynamic and may therefore undermine schools' organizational health. School leaders have a…

  16. Medical students' perceptions regarding the importance of nutritional knowledge and their confidence in providing competent nutrition practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perlstein, R; McCoombe, S; Shaw, C; Nowson, C

    2016-11-01

    The objective of this study was to examine the perceived importance, knowledge and confidence in nutritional management in a sample of Australian medical students undertaking a 4-year postgraduate medical degree. In 2015, students in years 1-4 were anonymously surveyed to assess students' perceived importance of nutrition, and knowledge and confidence in nutritional management. A total of 131 first and second year (preclinical/yr 1-2) medical students (46% response rate) and 66 third and fourth year (clinical/yr 3-4) students (24% response rate) completed the questionnaire. Most preclinical students agreed that medical graduates should understand nutritional issues in managing cardiovascular disease (99%), type 2 diabetes (93%), coeliac disease (95%), and renal impairment (97%). However, students were limited in their confidence to demonstrate this knowledge (range of confidence: 26%-41%) for individual medical conditions. This improved for students in the clinical context of years 3 and 4, although it was still not optimal (range 26%-81%). Few year 3 and 4 students reported confidence in knowledge related to medicolegal issues, respiratory disease, nutritional guidelines and nutrition assessment (all 80%) reported confidence in the dietary management of type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease and coeliac disease and >60% indicated they would refer onto nutrition professionals. This cohort of postgraduate medical students recognize the importance of nutrition in disease. The number of students reporting increased confidence in nutritional management of a few select diseases where dietary management is one of the cornerstones of treatment (e.g. type 2 diabetes) rises throughout the course. However, students reported lower levels of knowledge in diseases where diet is secondary to other treatments and preventative strategies (e.g. respiratory disease). Filling the gap by integrating the nutritional management into the range of common chronic diseases during training

  17. eMolTox: prediction of molecular toxicity with confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Changge; Svensson, Fredrik; Zoufir, Azedine; Bender, Andreas

    2018-03-07

    In this work we present eMolTox, a web server for the prediction of potential toxicity associated with a given molecule. 174 toxicology-related in vitro/vivo experimental datasets were used for model construction and Mondrian conformal prediction was used to estimate the confidence of the resulting predictions. Toxic substructure analysis is also implemented in eMolTox. eMolTox predicts and displays a wealth of information of potential molecular toxicities for safety analysis in drug development. The eMolTox Server is freely available for use on the web at http://xundrug.cn/moltox. chicago.ji@gmail.com or ab454@cam.ac.uk. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

  18. Editorial: disarmament, non proliferation, confidence-building measures, armament control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soutou, Georges-Henri

    2015-01-01

    After having described the vicious circle existing between disarmament and security as it appeared before and during the first World War, the author deals with the specific case of nuclear disarmament as it was first addressed just after the Second World War, and was then not accepted by the Russians. He comments the political and strategical approach adopted by the Kennedy administration, notably within the context of severe crises (Berlin and Cuba). This resulted in the re-establishment of a relationship between war and policy as defined by Clausewitz, but based on a trilogy of three inseparable pairs: deterrence and armament control, armament control and non proliferation, armament control and confidence-building measures. The author shows that this trilogy has been somehow operating until the end of Cold War, and that nothing works anymore since the end of Cold War and of the bipolar world

  19. Motivation, Leadership, Empowerment and Confidence: Their Relation with Nurses’ Burnout

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papathanasiou, Ioanna V.; Fradelos, Evangelos C.; Kleisiaris, Christos F.; Tsaras, Konstantinos; Kalota, Malamati A.; Kourkouta, Lambrini

    2014-01-01

    Introduction: Burnout is usually defined as a state of physical, emotional and mental exhaustion that results from long-term involvement in work situations that are emotionally demanding. A great deal of researches has been devoted to the understanding of factors contributing to burnout and the negative effects that burnout has in the cost and the quality of the provided healthcare. Discussion: Many researchers believe that in difficult and stressful working conditions the work environment should be changed in order to reduce burnout levels successfully. Indeed, recent studies have highlighted the role of human resources management in burnout. It has been widely recognized that human resource management policies should be at the core of any sustainable solution that aims to increase health care systems performance and efficient. Conclusion: Motivation, leadership, empowerment and confidence are very important factors that should be considered in this direction because they are strongly related with burnout levels. PMID:25685089

  20. Confidence limits for Neyman type A-distributed events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morand, J.; Deperas-Standylo, J.; Urbanik, W.; Moss, R.; Hachem, S.; Sauerwein, W.; Wojcik, A.

    2008-01-01

    The Neyman type A distribution, a generalised, 'contagious' Poisson distribution, finds application in a number of disciplines such as biology, physics and economy. In radiation biology, it best describes the distribution of chromosomal aberrations in cells that were exposed to neutrons, alpha radiations or heavy ions. Intriguingly, no method has been developed for the calculation of confidence limits (CLs) of Neyman type A-distributed events. Here, an algorithm to calculate the 95% CL of Neyman type A-distributed events is presented. Although it has been developed in response to the requirements of radiation biology, it can find application in other fields of research. The algorithm has been implemented in a PC-based computer program that can be downloaded, free of charge, from www.pu.kielce.pl/ibiol/neta. (authors)

  1. Determining frequentist confidence limits using a directed parameter space search

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daniel, Scott F.; Connolly, Andrew J.; Schneider, Jeff

    2014-01-01

    We consider the problem of inferring constraints on a high-dimensional parameter space with a computationally expensive likelihood function. We propose a machine learning algorithm that maps out the Frequentist confidence limit on parameter space by intelligently targeting likelihood evaluations so as to quickly and accurately characterize the likelihood surface in both low- and high-likelihood regions. We compare our algorithm to Bayesian credible limits derived by the well-tested Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm using both multi-modal toy likelihood functions and the seven yr Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe cosmic microwave background likelihood function. We find that our algorithm correctly identifies the location, general size, and general shape of high-likelihood regions in parameter space while being more robust against multi-modality than MCMC.

  2. Confidence limits for Neyman type A-distributed events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morand, Josselin; Deperas-Standylo, Joanna; Urbanik, Witold; Moss, Raymond; Hachem, Sabet; Sauerwein, Wolfgang; Wojcik, Andrzej

    2008-01-01

    The Neyman type A distribution, a generalised, 'contagious' Poisson distribution, finds application in a number of disciplines such as biology, physics and economy. In radiation biology, it best describes the distribution of chromosomal aberrations in cells that were exposed to neutrons, alpha radiations or heavy ions. Intriguingly, no method has been developed for the calculation of confidence limits (CLs) of Neyman type A-distributed events. Here, an algorithm to calculate the 95% CL of Neyman type A-distributed events is presented. Although it has been developed in response to the requirements of radiation biology, it can find application in other fields of research. The algorithm has been implemented in a PC-based computer program that can be downloaded, free of charge, from www.pu.kielce.pl/ibiol/neta.

  3. Normalization and psychometric properties of career skills confidence inventory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zahra Jafari

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates normalization and psychometric properties of career skills confidence inventory. For this purpose, we use Betz’s questionnaire [Betz, N. E., Harmon, L., & Borgen, F. (1996. The relationships of self- efficacy for the Holland themes to gender, occupational group membership, and vocational interests. Journal of Counseling Psychology, 43, 90-98.], which consists of 60 questions in three groups of self-awareness, exploration and planning. The study distributes the questionnaire among 600 randomly selected students and analyzes the feedback using Pearson correlation ratios. The results indicate that there are some positive and meaningful correlations between three component and career counseling. There are also positive and meaningful relationships among three components of self-awareness, exploration and planning.

  4. The Forum on Stakeholder Confidence celebrates a decade of work

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pescatore, C.; Mays, C.; Diaconu, D.

    2010-01-01

    Since its foundation in 2000, the NEA Radioactive Waste Management Committee (RWMC) Forum on Stakeholder Confidence (FSC) has fostered constructive dialogues and interactions with hundreds of interested parties in radioactive waste management, ranging from specialists and academic researchers, national and local politicians to local stakeholders and associations. Many of those partners came to Paris in September 2010 to participate in the colloquium 'Looking Back, Looking Forward in Stakeholder Engagement'. This Ten- year Anniversary Colloquium as well as the FSC's eleventh regular meeting on the following two days were open to all interested parties. This article describes the Forum and the online reports in which learning is shared. It highlights the two major topics discussed at the Colloquium and reviews the joint evaluation made there of FSC achievements. Finally, it points to the directions selected for a new decade of work

  5. Stakeholder confidence: observations from the viewpoint of ethics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, P.A.

    2003-01-01

    Discussions among the participants of this Forum on Stakeholder Confidence Workshop as well as the Canadian Context and field trip to the Municipality of Port Hope and Clarington often turned to foundational social concerns in radioactive waste facility siting. Intertwined in these topics were less obvious but persistent ethical concerns. Below I articulate some of these ethical issues. I do this by describing four observations I made throughout the week. I suggest that these observations be examined from the viewpoint of ethics and reflect on their complexity. I initiate this paper with a preliminary discussion of the expression 'ethical assessment' referred to throughout the workshop. This expression is key to Canada's new Nuclear Waste Fuel Act (NWFA) requiring proof that this type of assessment occurs in the consideration of potential concepts and hosts for the disposal of nuclear waste. (author)

  6. CONSEL: for assessing the confidence of phylogenetic tree selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimodaira, H; Hasegawa, M

    2001-12-01

    CONSEL is a program to assess the confidence of the tree selection by giving the p-values for the trees. The main thrust of the program is to calculate the p-value of the Approximately Unbiased (AU) test using the multi-scale bootstrap technique. This p-value is less biased than the other conventional p-values such as the Bootstrap Probability (BP), the Kishino-Hasegawa (KH) test, the Shimodaira-Hasegawa (SH) test, and the Weighted Shimodaira-Hasegawa (WSH) test. CONSEL calculates all these p-values from the output of the phylogeny program packages such as Molphy, PAML, and PAUP*. Furthermore, CONSEL is applicable to a wide class of problems where the BPs are available. The programs are written in C language. The source code for Unix and the executable binary for DOS are found at http://www.ism.ac.jp/~shimo/ shimo@ism.ac.jp

  7. Comparison of Bootstrap Confidence Intervals Using Monte Carlo Simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberto S. Flowers-Cano

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Design of hydraulic works requires the estimation of design hydrological events by statistical inference from a probability distribution. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we compared coverage of confidence intervals constructed with four bootstrap techniques: percentile bootstrap (BP, bias-corrected bootstrap (BC, accelerated bias-corrected bootstrap (BCA and a modified version of the standard bootstrap (MSB. Different simulation scenarios were analyzed. In some cases, the mother distribution function was fit to the random samples that were generated. In other cases, a distribution function different to the mother distribution was fit to the samples. When the fitted distribution had three parameters, and was the same as the mother distribution, the intervals constructed with the four techniques had acceptable coverage. However, the bootstrap techniques failed in several of the cases in which the fitted distribution had two parameters.

  8. Estimation and interpretation of keff confidence intervals in MCNP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Urbatsch, T.J.

    1995-01-01

    MCNP has three different, but correlated, estimators for Calculating k eff in nuclear criticality calculations: collision, absorption, and track length estimators. The combination of these three estimators, the three-combined k eff estimator, is shown to be the best k eff estimator available in MCNP for estimating k eff confidence intervals. Theoretically, the Gauss-Markov Theorem provides a solid foundation for MCNP's three-combined estimator. Analytically, a statistical study, where the estimates are drawn using a known covariance matrix, shows that the three-combined estimator is superior to the individual estimator with the smallest variance. The importance of MCNP's batch statistics is demonstrated by an investigation of the effects of individual estimator variance bias on the combination of estimators, both heuristically with the analytical study and emprically with MCNP

  9. The 95% confidence intervals of error rates and discriminant coefficients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuichi Shinmura

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Fisher proposed a linear discriminant function (Fisher’s LDF. From 1971, we analysed electrocardiogram (ECG data in order to develop the diagnostic logic between normal and abnormal symptoms by Fisher’s LDF and a quadratic discriminant function (QDF. Our four years research was inferior to the decision tree logic developed by the medical doctor. After this experience, we discriminated many data and found four problems of the discriminant analysis. A revised Optimal LDF by Integer Programming (Revised IP-OLDF based on the minimum number of misclassification (minimum NM criterion resolves three problems entirely [13, 18]. In this research, we discuss fourth problem of the discriminant analysis. There are no standard errors (SEs of the error rate and discriminant coefficient. We propose a k-fold crossvalidation method. This method offers a model selection technique and a 95% confidence intervals (C.I. of error rates and discriminant coefficients.

  10. GENERALISED MODEL BASED CONFIDENCE INTERVALS IN TWO STAGE CLUSTER SAMPLING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher Ouma Onyango

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Chambers and Dorfman (2002 constructed bootstrap confidence intervals in model based estimation for finite population totals assuming that auxiliary values are available throughout a target population and that the auxiliary values are independent. They also assumed that the cluster sizes are known throughout the target population. We now extend to two stage sampling in which the cluster sizes are known only for the sampled clusters, and we therefore predict the unobserved part of the population total. Jan and Elinor (2008 have done similar work, but unlike them, we use a general model, in which the auxiliary values are not necessarily independent. We demonstrate that the asymptotic properties of our proposed estimator and its coverage rates are better than those constructed under the model assisted local polynomial regression model.

  11. Metacognition and Confidence: Comparing Math to Other Academic Subjects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shanna eErickson

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Two studies addressed student metacognition in math, measuring confidence accuracy about math performance. Underconfidence would be expected in light of pervasive math anxiety. However, one might alternatively expect overconfidence based on previous results showing overconfidence in other subject domains. Metacognitive judgments and performance were assessed for biology, literature, and mathematics tests. In Study 1, high school students took three different tests and provided estimates of their performance both before and after taking each test. In Study 2, undergraduates similarly took three shortened SAT II Subject Tests. Students were overconfident in predicting math performance, indeed showing greater overconfidence compared to other academic subjects. It appears that both overconfidence and anxiety can adversely affect metacognitive ability and can lead to math avoidance. The results have implications for educational practice and other environments that require extensive use of math.

  12. Estimation and interpretation of keff confidence intervals in MCNP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Urbatsch, T.J.

    1995-01-01

    The Monte Carlo code MCNP has three different, but correlated, estimators for calculating k eff in nuclear criticality calculations: collision, absorption, and track length estimators. The combination of these three estimators, the three-combined k eff estimator, is shown to be the best k eff estimator available in MCNP for estimating k eff confidence intervals. Theoretically, the Gauss-Markov theorem provides a solid foundation for MCNP's three-combined estimator. Analytically, a statistical study, where the estimates are drawn using a known covariance matrix, shows that the three-combined estimator is superior to the estimator with the smallest variance. Empirically, MCNP examples for several physical systems demonstrate the three-combined estimator's superiority over each of the three individual estimators and its correct coverage rates. Additionally, the importance of MCNP's statistical checks is demonstrated

  13. Motivation, leadership, empowerment and confidence: their relation with nurses' burnout.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papathanasiou, Ioanna V; Fradelos, Evangelos C; Kleisiaris, Christos F; Tsaras, Konstantinos; Kalota, Malamati A; Kourkouta, Lambrini

    2014-12-01

    Burnout is usually defined as a state of physical, emotional and mental exhaustion that results from long-term involvement in work situations that are emotionally demanding. A great deal of researches has been devoted to the understanding of factors contributing to burnout and the negative effects that burnout has in the cost and the quality of the provided healthcare. Many researchers believe that in difficult and stressful working conditions the work environment should be changed in order to reduce burnout levels successfully. Indeed, recent studies have highlighted the role of human resources management in burnout. It has been widely recognized that human resource management policies should be at the core of any sustainable solution that aims to increase health care systems performance and efficient. Motivation, leadership, empowerment and confidence are very important factors that should be considered in this direction because they are strongly related with burnout levels.

  14. Secure and Usable Bio-Passwords based on Confidence Interval

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aeyoung Kim

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The most popular user-authentication method is the password. Many authentication systems try to enhance their security by enforcing a strong password policy, and by using the password as the first factor, something you know, with the second factor being something you have. However, a strong password policy and a multi-factor authentication system can make it harder for a user to remember the password and login in. In this paper a bio-password-based scheme is proposed as a unique authentication method, which uses biometrics and confidence interval sets to enhance the security of the log-in process and make it easier as well. The method offers a user-friendly solution for creating and registering strong passwords without the user having to memorize them. Here we also show the results of our experiments which demonstrate the efficiency of this method and how it can be used to protect against a variety of malicious attacks.

  15. The confidence in diabetes self-care scale

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Van Der Ven, Nicole C W; Weinger, Katie; Yi, Joyce

    2003-01-01

    evaluated in Dutch (n = 151) and U.S. (n = 190) outpatients with type 1 diabetes. In addition to the CIDS scale, assessment included HbA(1c), emotional distress, fear of hypoglycemia, self-esteem, anxiety, depression, and self-care behavior. The Dutch sample completed additional measures on perceived burden......OBJECTIVE: To examine psychometric properties of the Confidence in Diabetes Self-Care (CIDS) scale, a newly developed instrument assessing diabetes-specific self-efficacy in Dutch and U.S. patients with type 1 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Reliability and validity of the CIDS scale were...... and importance of self-care. Test-retest reliability was established in a second Dutch sample (n = 62). RESULTS: Internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha = 0.86 for Dutch patients and 0.90 U.S. patients) and test-retest reliability (Spearman's r = 0.85, P

  16. How Confident can we be in Flood Risk Assessments?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merz, B.

    2017-12-01

    Flood risk management should be based on risk analyses quantifying the risk and its reduction for different risk reduction strategies. However, validating risk estimates by comparing model simulations with past observations is hardly possible, since the assessment typically encompasses extreme events and their impacts that have not been observed before. Hence, risk analyses are strongly based on assumptions and expert judgement. This situation opens the door for cognitive biases, such as `illusion of certainty', `overconfidence' or `recency bias'. Such biases operate specifically in complex situations with many factors involved, when uncertainty is high and events are probabilistic, or when close learning feedback loops are missing - aspects that all apply to risk analyses. This contribution discusses how confident we can be in flood risk assessments, and reflects about more rigorous approaches towards their validation.

  17. IMPROVING SEMI-GLOBAL MATCHING: COST AGGREGATION AND CONFIDENCE MEASURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. d’Angelo

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Digital elevation models are one of the basic products that can be generated from remotely sensed imagery. The Semi Global Matching (SGM algorithm is a robust and practical algorithm for dense image matching. The connection between SGM and Belief Propagation was recently developed, and based on that improvements such as correction of over-counting the data term, and a new confidence measure have been proposed. Later the MGM algorithm has been proposed, it aims at improving the regularization step of SGM, but has only been evaluated on the Middlebury stereo benchmark so far. This paper evaluates these proposed improvements on the ISPRS satellite stereo benchmark, using a Pleiades Triplet and a Cartosat-1 Stereo pair. The over-counting correction slightly improves matching density, at the expense of adding a few outliers. The MGM cost aggregation shows leads to a slight increase of accuracy.

  18. Confidence interval procedures for Monte Carlo transport simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pederson, S.P.

    1997-01-01

    The problem of obtaining valid confidence intervals based on estimates from sampled distributions using Monte Carlo particle transport simulation codes such as MCNP is examined. Such intervals can cover the true parameter of interest at a lower than nominal rate if the sampled distribution is extremely right-skewed by large tallies. Modifications to the standard theory of confidence intervals are discussed and compared with some existing heuristics, including batched means normality tests. Two new types of diagnostics are introduced to assess whether the conditions of central limit theorem-type results are satisfied: the relative variance of the variance determines whether the sample size is sufficiently large, and estimators of the slope of the right tail of the distribution are used to indicate the number of moments that exist. A simulation study is conducted to quantify the relationship between various diagnostics and coverage rates and to find sample-based quantities useful in indicating when intervals are expected to be valid. Simulated tally distributions are chosen to emulate behavior seen in difficult particle transport problems. Measures of variation in the sample variance s 2 are found to be much more effective than existing methods in predicting when coverage will be near nominal rates. Batched means tests are found to be overly conservative in this regard. A simple but pathological MCNP problem is presented as an example of false convergence using existing heuristics. The new methods readily detect the false convergence and show that the results of the problem, which are a factor of 4 too small, should not be used. Recommendations are made for applying these techniques in practice, using the statistical output currently produced by MCNP

  19. A Pediatric Cardiology Fellowship Boot Camp improves trainee confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allan, Catherine K; Tannous, Paul; DeWitt, Elizabeth; Farias, Michael; Mansfield, Laura; Ronai, Christina; Schidlow, David; Sanders, Stephen P; Lock, James E; Newburger, Jane W; Brown, David W

    2016-12-01

    Introduction New paediatric cardiology trainees are required to rapidly assimilate knowledge and gain clinical skills to which they have limited or no exposure during residency. The Pediatric Cardiology Fellowship Boot Camp (PCBC) at Boston Children's Hospital was designed to provide incoming fellows with an intensive exposure to congenital cardiac pathology and a broad overview of major areas of paediatric cardiology practice. The PCBC curriculum was designed by core faculty in cardiac pathology, echocardiography, electrophysiology, interventional cardiology, exercise physiology, and cardiac intensive care. Individual faculty contributed learning objectives, which were refined by fellowship directors and used to build a programme of didactics, hands-on/simulation-based activities, and self-guided learning opportunities. A total of 16 incoming fellows participated in the 4-week boot camp, with no concurrent clinical responsibilities, over 2 years. On the basis of pre- and post-PCBC surveys, 80% of trainees strongly agreed that they felt more prepared for clinical responsibilities, and a similar percentage felt that PCBC should be offered to future incoming fellows. Fellows showed significant increase in their confidence in all specific knowledge and skills related to the learning objectives. Fellows rated hands-on learning experiences and simulation-based exercises most highly. We describe a novel 4-week-long boot camp designed to expose incoming paediatric cardiology fellows to the broad spectrum of knowledge and skills required for the practice of paediatric cardiology. The experience increased trainee confidence and sense of preparedness to begin fellowship-related responsibilities. Given that highly interactive activities were rated most highly, boot camps in paediatric cardiology should strongly emphasise these elements.

  20. FDAAA legislation is working, but methodological flaws undermine the reliability of clinical trials: a cross-sectional study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Douglas H. Marin dos Santos

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The relationship between clinical research and the pharmaceutical industry has placed clinical trials in jeopardy. According to the medical literature, more than 70% of clinical trials are industry-funded. Many of these trials remain unpublished or have methodological flaws that distort their results. In 2007, it was signed into law the Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act (FDAAA, aiming to provide publicly access to a broad range of biomedical information to be made available on the platform ClinicalTrials (available at https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. We accessed ClinicalTrials.gov and evaluated the compliance of researchers and sponsors with the FDAAA. Our sample comprised 243 protocols of clinical trials of biological monoclonal antibodies (mAb adalimumab, bevacizumab, infliximab, rituximab, and trastuzumab. We demonstrate that the new legislation has positively affected transparency patterns in clinical research, through a significant increase in publication and online reporting rates after the enactment of the law. Poorly designed trials, however, remain a challenge to be overcome, due to a high prevalence of methodological flaws. These flaws affect the quality of clinical information available, breaching ethical duties of sponsors and researchers, as well as the human right to health.