WorldWideScience

Sample records for undermine public confidence

  1. Confidence Building Strategies in the Public Schools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achilles, C. M.; And Others

    1985-01-01

    Data from the Phi Delta Kappa Commission on Public Confidence in Education indicate that "high-confidence" schools make greater use of marketing and public relations strategies. Teacher attitudes were ranked first and administrator attitudes second by 409 respondents for both gain and loss of confidence in schools. (MLF)

  2. Winning Public Confidence in Sellafield

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Preece, J. A.

    1991-01-01

    BNF operates the nuclear fuel reprocessing and waste management centre of Sellafield in North West England. It is the largest nuclear site in Britain and perhaps the most famous nuclear plant in Western Europe. It is famous largely because it has long been the target of anti-nuclear interests. Well organised, well funded and well informed anti-nuclear organisations, notably including Green peace and Friends of the Earth, have made propaganda capital based on a number of controversial claims: - that by importing spent nuclear fuel from overseas for reprocessing at Sellafield, BNFL was turning Britain into a nuclear dustbin for the world. That discharges of low level radioactivity from Sellafield cause unacceptable nuclear pollution and endanger health, that the radioactivity in store in various forms on site at Sellafield, for which no permanent disposal routes are yet available, are a danger to the public and constantly threaten a major nuclear accident

  3. Building Public Confidence in Nuclear Activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Isaacs, T

    2002-01-01

    Achieving public acceptance has become a central issue in discussions regarding the future of nuclear power and associated nuclear activities. Effective public communication and public participation are often put forward as the key building blocks in garnering public acceptance. A recent international workshop in Finland provided insights into other features that might also be important to building and sustaining public confidence in nuclear activities. The workshop was held in Finland in close cooperation with Finnish stakeholders. This was most appropriate because of the recent successes in achieving positive decisions at the municipal, governmental, and Parliamentary levels, allowing the Finnish high-level radioactive waste repository program to proceed, including the identification and approval of a proposed candidate repository site. Much of the workshop discussion appropriately focused on the roles of public participation and public communications in building public confidence. It was clear that well constructed and implemented programs of public involvement and communication and a sense of fairness were essential in building the extent of public confidence needed to allow the repository program in Finland to proceed. It was also clear that there were a number of other elements beyond public involvement that contributed substantially to the success in Finland to date. And, in fact, it appeared that these other factors were also necessary to achieving the Finnish public acceptance. In other words, successful public participation and communication were necessary but not sufficient. What else was important? Culture, politics, and history vary from country to country, providing differing contexts for establishing and maintaining public confidence. What works in one country will not necessarily be effective in another. Nonetheless, there appear to be certain elements that might be common to programs that are successful in sustaining public confidence and some of

  4. Building Public Confidence in Nuclear Activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Isaacs, T

    2002-01-01

    Achieving public acceptance has become a central issue in discussions regarding the future of nuclear power and associated nuclear activities. Effective public communication and public participation are often put forward as the key building blocks in garnering public acceptance. A recent international workshop in Finland provided insights into other features that might also be important to building and sustaining public confidence in nuclear activities. The workshop was held in Finland in close cooperation with Finnish stakeholders. This was most appropriate because of the recent successes in achieving positive decisions at the municipal, governmental, and Parliamentary levels, allowing the Finnish high-level radioactive waste repository program to proceed, including the identification and approval of a proposed candidate repository site Much of the workshop discussion appropriately focused on the roles of public participation and public communications in building public confidence. It was clear that well constructed and implemented programs of public involvement and communication and a sense of fairness were essential in building the extent of public confidence needed to allow the repository program in Finland to proceed. It was also clear that there were a number of other elements beyond public involvement that contributed substantially to the success in Finland to date. And, in fact, it appeared that these other factors were also necessary to achieving the Finnish public acceptance. In other words, successful public participation and communication were necessary but not sufficient. What else was important? Culture, politics, and history vary from country to country, providing differing contexts for establishing and maintaining public confidence. What works in one country will not necessarily be effective in another. Nonetheless, there appear to be certain elements that might be common to programs that are successful in sustaining public confidence, and some of

  5. Considering public confidence in developing regulatory programs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Collins, S.J.

    2001-01-01

    In the area of public trust and in any investment, planning and strategy are important. While it is accepted in the United States that an essential part of our mission is to leverage our resources to improving Public Confidence this performance goal must be planned for, managed and measured. Similar to our premier performance goal of Maintaining Safety, a strategy must be developed and integrated with our external stake holders but with internal regulatory staff as well. In order to do that, business is to be conducted in an open environment, the basis for regulatory decisions has to be available through public documents and public meetings, communication must be done in clear and consistent terms. (N.C.)

  6. Transparency as an element of public confidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, H.K.

    2007-01-01

    In the modern society, there is increasing demands for greater transparency. It has been discussed with respect to corruption or ethics issues in social science. The need for greater openness and transparency in nuclear regulation is widely recognised as public expectations on regulator grow. It is also related to the digital and information technology that enables disclosures of every activity and information of individual and organisation, characterised by numerous 'small brothers'. Transparency has become a key word in this ubiquitous era. Transparency in regulatory activities needs to be understood in following contexts. First, transparency is one of elements to build public confidence in regulator and eventually to achieve regulatory goal of providing the public with satisfaction at nuclear safety. Transparent bases of competence, independence, ethics and integrity of working process of regulatory body would enhance public confidence. Second, activities transmitting information on nuclear safety and preparedness to be accessed are different types of transparency. Communication is an active method of transparency. With increasing use of web-sites, 'digital transparency' is also discussed as passive one. Transparency in regulatory process may be more important than that of contents. Simply providing more information is of little value and specific information may need to be protected for security reason. Third, transparency should be discussed in international, national and organizational perspectives. It has been demanded through international instruments. for each country, transparency is demanded by residents, public, NGOs, media and other stakeholders. Employees also demand more transparency in operating and regulatory organisations. Whistle-blower may appear unless they are satisfied. Fourth, pursuing transparency may cause undue social cost or adverse effects. Over-transparency may decrease public confidence and the process for transparency may also hinder

  7. Tobacco interests or the public interest: 20 years of industry strategies to undermine airline smoking restrictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopipero, Peggy Ann; Bero, Lisa A

    2006-01-01

    Objectives To understand the evolution of 20 years of tobacco industry strategies to undermine federal restrictions of smoking on aircraft in the United States. Design We searched and analysed internal tobacco industry records, public documents, and other related research. Results The industry viewed these restrictions as a serious threat to the social acceptability of smoking. Its initial efforts included covert letter‐writing campaigns and lobbying of the airline industry, but with the emergence of proposals to ban smoking, the tobacco companies engaged in ever increasing efforts to forestall further restrictions. Tactics to dominate the public record became especially rigorous. The industry launched an aggressive public relations campaign that began with the promotion of industry sponsored petition drives and public opinion surveys. Results from polling research that produced findings contrary to the industry's position were suppressed. In order to demonstrate smoker outrage against a ban, later efforts included the sponsorship of smokers' rights and other front groups. Congressional allies and industry consultants sought to discredit the science underlying proposals to ban smoking and individual tobacco companies conducted their own cabin air quality research. Faced with the potential of a ban on all domestic flights, the industry sought to intimidate an air carrier and a prominent policymaker. Despite the intensification of tactics over time, including mobilisation of an army of lobbyists and Congressional allies, the tobacco industry was ultimately defeated. Conclusions Our longitudinal analysis provides insights into how and when the industry changed its plans and provides public health advocates with potential counterstrategies. PMID:16885582

  8. Tobacco interests or the public interest: 20 years of industry strategies to undermine airline smoking restrictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopipero, Peggy; Bero, Lisa A

    2006-08-01

    To understand the evolution of 20 years of tobacco industry strategies to undermine federal restrictions of smoking on aircraft in the United States. We searched and analysed internal tobacco industry records, public documents, and other related research. The industry viewed these restrictions as a serious threat to the social acceptability of smoking. Its initial efforts included covert letter-writing campaigns and lobbying of the airline industry, but with the emergence of proposals to ban smoking, the tobacco companies engaged in ever increasing efforts to forestall further restrictions. Tactics to dominate the public record became especially rigorous. The industry launched an aggressive public relations campaign that began with the promotion of industry sponsored petition drives and public opinion surveys. Results from polling research that produced findings contrary to the industry's position were suppressed. In order to demonstrate smoker outrage against a ban, later efforts included the sponsorship of smokers' rights and other front groups. Congressional allies and industry consultants sought to discredit the science underlying proposals to ban smoking and individual tobacco companies conducted their own cabin air quality research. Faced with the potential of a ban on all domestic flights, the industry sought to intimidate an air carrier and a prominent policymaker. Despite the intensification of tactics over time, including mobilisation of an army of lobbyists and Congressional allies, the tobacco industry was ultimately defeated. Our longitudinal analysis provides insights into how and when the industry changed its plans and provides public health advocates with potential counterstrategies.

  9. To protect and serve: Restoring public confidence in the SAPS ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Persistent incidents of brutality, criminal behaviour and abuse of authority by members of South Africa's police agencies have serious implications for public trust and confidence in the police. A decline in trust and confidence in the police is inevitably harmful to the ability of the government to reduce crime and improve public ...

  10. Sustainable nuclear development and public confidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gagarinski, A.

    2000-01-01

    This report discusses the objective preconditions, which would lead the world community to acceptance of nuclear energy. The following conditions deserve special emphasis: (a) Demographic growth, resulting in the increase of energy demand and promoting the understanding of the fact, that the world energy resources are limited and all possible energy sources, including nuclear ones, should be used. (b) Development of the 'third-world' countries, creating additional energy demand, which cannot be met without nuclear power. (c) Global (and influencing the plans of each country) need of availability and acceptable costs together with reliability and safety of energy supply, and, consequently, the interest to energy sources diversification in order to eliminate the dependence of fossil fuels import. The paper considers the ways to solve this strategic task. Its solution could take a long time (several decades) and should be properly perceived by the generation of specialists now starting their career in nuclear science and industry. Now it is a good time for the new generation of nuclear specialists to solve this problem - the large-scale NPP development is not yet needed, there is a large accumulated experience and perspective ideas, and there is enough time to analyze the problems in detail, propose and prepare the solutions and convince the general public, that these solutions are correct. And then the next phase of nuclear energy development would be based not only on correct technical solutions, but also on a favourable social environment. (authors)

  11. Tobacco industry issues management organizations: creating a global corporate network to undermine public health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDaniel, Patricia A; Intinarelli, Gina; Malone, Ruth E

    2008-01-17

    concerns to coordinate their activities. The global network of national and regional manufacturing associations created and nurtured by INFOTAB remains active, particularly in relation to the recently negotiated global health treaty, the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control. Policymakers should be aware that although these associations claim to represent only national or regional interests, they are allied to and coordinated with a confederation of transnational tobacco companies seeking to protect profits by undermining public health.

  12. Tobacco industry issues management organizations: Creating a global corporate network to undermine public health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malone Ruth E

    2008-01-01

    threatened by the globalization of public health, sidestep competitive concerns to coordinate their activities. The global network of national and regional manufacturing associations created and nurtured by INFOTAB remains active, particularly in relation to the recently negotiated global health treaty, the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control. Policymakers should be aware that although these associations claim to represent only national or regional interests, they are allied to and coordinated with a confederation of transnational tobacco companies seeking to protect profits by undermining public health.

  13. Undermining Adversaries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    He, Kai

    2012-01-01

    This paper engages the ongoing soft balancing debate by suggesting a new analytical framework for states’ countervailing strategies—a negative balancing model—to explain why states do not form alliances and conduct arms races to balance against power or threats as they previously did. Negative...... balancing refers to a state's strategies or diplomatic efforts aiming to undermine a rival's power. By contrast, positive balancing means to strengthen a state's own power in world politics. I argue that a state's balancing strategies are shaped by the level of threat perception regarding its rival...... in which the relatively low-threat propensity of the system renders positive balancing strategies incompatible with state interests after the Cold War. Instead, states have employed various negative balancing strategies to undermine each other's power, especially when dealing with us primacy. China...

  14. The effect of terrorism on public confidence : an exploratory study.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berry, M. S.; Baldwin, T. E.; Samsa, M. E.; Ramaprasad, A.; Decision and Information Sciences

    2008-10-31

    A primary goal of terrorism is to instill a sense of fear and vulnerability in a population and to erode confidence in government and law enforcement agencies to protect citizens against future attacks. In recognition of its importance, the Department of Homeland Security includes public confidence as one of the metrics it uses to assess the consequences of terrorist attacks. Hence, several factors--including a detailed understanding of the variations in public confidence among individuals, by type of terrorist event, and as a function of time--are critical to developing this metric. In this exploratory study, a questionnaire was designed, tested, and administered to small groups of individuals to measure public confidence in the ability of federal, state, and local governments and their public safety agencies to prevent acts of terrorism. Data were collected from the groups before and after they watched mock television news broadcasts portraying a smallpox attack, a series of suicide bomber attacks, a refinery bombing, and cyber intrusions on financial institutions that resulted in identity theft and financial losses. Our findings include the following: (a) the subjects can be classified into at least three distinct groups on the basis of their baseline outlook--optimistic, pessimistic, and unaffected; (b) the subjects make discriminations in their interpretations of an event on the basis of the nature of a terrorist attack, the time horizon, and its impact; (c) the recovery of confidence after a terrorist event has an incubation period and typically does not return to its initial level in the long-term; (d) the patterns of recovery of confidence differ between the optimists and the pessimists; and (e) individuals are able to associate a monetary value with a loss or gain in confidence, and the value associated with a loss is greater than the value associated with a gain. These findings illustrate the importance the public places in their confidence in government

  15. The public information challenge: confidence and credibility through communications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spence, H.J.M.

    1994-01-01

    Canada's Atomic Energy Control Board, considered the oldest independent nuclear regulatory body in the world, has made significant progress toward openness and visibility through public information policy initiatives and communications activities, particularly in the last five years. A number of public information projects are described, and successes as well as disappointments are outlined. The importance in terms of enhanced credibility and public confidence in the regulatory agency is stressed. In looking toward the future, the linking of communications to the operational functions and activities of the regulator is presented as a key requirement. (author)

  16. Public confidence, risk communication and public relations. Oeffentliches Vertrauen, Risikokommunikation und Public Relations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bentele, G. (Univ. Bamberg, Fakultaet Sprach- und Literaturwissenschaften-Kommunikationswissenschaft (Germany))

    1992-07-27

    In information societies, by far the greatest part of the information obtained and used by the public comes via the media. At the same time, only a minute portion of information used can be verified by an individual. Therefore the confidence factor gains increasing importance. This applies, particularly, to production and service sectors, which are associated with a certain risk (for instance, nuclear energy and coal). Lately, large confidence deficits have arisen - not only entailing economic drawbacks and damaging images but jeopardizing, moreover, democratic structures. Changing structures of public communication in information societies result in changed demands on corporate communication. The author points out what is needed especially in the energy sector to preserve in the long run, or regain, public confidence. (orig.).

  17. Nuclear energy communications in France: gaining public confidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chaussade, J.-P.

    1990-01-01

    Nuclear power plants today are an accepted part of the French landscape; a total of 54 units have been constructed on some 20 different sites. They have been relatively well accepted by the general public and, in particular, by those people living in the vicinity of plants. This favourable situation, however, did not come about automatically - it required a great deal of effort in terms of public information, starting during the 1970s. This effort must be maintained, especially since public confidence in nuclear energy was severely shaken by the Chernobyl accident. Our success in pursuing France's planned construction programme depends on our ability to build on this confidence. Indeed, since 1987, we have had to rethink our communications strategy. However, Electricite de France (EDF) is not alone in this; public authorities, the SCSIN (an Industry Department equivalent to the NRC), CEA (French atomic energy commission), in its capacity as a research organisation, together with plant constructor Framatome and nuclear fuel company Cogema, all have a role to play in this communications drive. The key to our communications campaign lies in listening to public opinion. Opinion polls and qualitative surveys allow us to judge public awareness and pinpoint expectations and concerns. This article summarises the main surveys we have carried out. (3 figures) (Author)

  18. Does corruption undermine trust in health care? Results from public opinion polls in Croatia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radin, Dagmar

    2013-12-01

    Health and health care provision are one of the most important topics in public policy, and often a highly debated topic in the political arena. The importance of considering trust in the health care sector is highlighted by studies showing that trust is associated, among others, with poor self-related health, and poorer health outcomes. Similarly, corruption has shown to create economic costs and inefficiencies in the health care sector. This is particularly important for a newly democratized country such as Croatia, where a policy responsive government indicates a high level of quality of democracy (Roberts, 2009) and where a legacy of corruption in the health care sector has been carried over from the previous regime. In this study, I assess the relationship between health care corruption and trust in public health care and hypothesize that experience with health care corruption as well as perception of corruption has a negative effect on trust in public care facilities. Data were collected in two surveys, administered in 2007 and 2009 in Croatia. Experience with corruption and salience with corruption has a negative effect on trust in public health care in the 2007 survey, but not in the 2009 survey. While the results are mixed, they point to the importance of further studying this relationship. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. The Inverse Benefit Law: How Drug Marketing Undermines Patient Safety and Public Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Light, Donald W.

    2011-01-01

    Recent highly publicized withdrawals of drugs from the market because of safety concerns raise the question of whether these events are random failures or part of a recurring pattern. The inverse benefit law, inspired by Hart's inverse care law, states that the ratio of benefits to harms among patients taking new drugs tends to vary inversely with how extensively the drugs are marketed. The law is manifested through 6 basic marketing strategies: reducing thresholds for diagnosing disease, relying on surrogate endpoints, exaggerating safety claims, exaggerating efficacy claims, creating new diseases, and encouraging unapproved uses. The inverse benefit law highlights the need for comparative effectiveness research and other reforms to improve evidence-based prescribing. PMID:21233426

  20. The inverse benefit law: how drug marketing undermines patient safety and public health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brody, Howard; Light, Donald W

    2011-03-01

    Recent highly publicized withdrawals of drugs from the market because of safety concerns raise the question of whether these events are random failures or part of a recurring pattern. The inverse benefit law, inspired by Hart's inverse care law, states that the ratio of benefits to harms among patients taking new drugs tends to vary inversely with how extensively the drugs are marketed. The law is manifested through 6 basic marketing strategies: reducing thresholds for diagnosing disease, relying on surrogate endpoints, exaggerating safety claims, exaggerating efficacy claims, creating new diseases, and encouraging unapproved uses. The inverse benefit law highlights the need for comparative effectiveness research and other reforms to improve evidence-based prescribing.

  1. Undermining patient and public engagement and limiting its impact: the consequences of the Health and Social Care Act 2012 on collective patient and public involvement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tritter, Jonathan Q; Koivusalo, Meri

    2013-06-01

    Patient and public involvement has been at the heart of UK health policy for more than two decades. This commitment to putting patients at the heart of the British National Health Service (NHS) has become a central principle helping to ensure equity, patient safety and effectiveness in the health system. The recent Health and Social Care Act 2012 is the most significant reform of the NHS since its foundation in 1948. More radically, this legislation undermines the principle of patient and public involvement, public accountability and returns the power for prioritisation of health services to an unaccountable medical elite. This legislation marks a sea-change in the approach to patient and public involvement in the UK and signals a shift in the commitment of the UK government to patient-centred care. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. The internet trade of counterfeit spirits in Russia – an emerging problem undermining alcohol, public health and youth protection policies?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neufeld, Maria; Lachenmeier, Dirk W.; Walch, Stephan G.; Rehm, Jürgen

    2017-01-01

    Counterfeit alcohol belongs to the category of unrecorded alcohol not reflected in official statistics. The internet trade of alcoholic beverages has been prohibited by the Russian Federation since 2007, but various sellers still offer counterfeit spirits (i.e., forged brand spirits) over the internet to Russian consumers, mostly in a non-deceptive fashion at prices up to 15 times lower than in regular sale. The public health issues arising from this unregulated trade include potential harm to underage drinkers, hazards due to toxic ingredients such as methanol, but most importantly alcohol harms due to potentially increased drinking volumes due to low prices and high availability on the internet. The internet sale also undermines existing alcohol policies such as restrictions of sale locations, sale times and minimum pricing. The need to enforce measures against counterfeiting of spirits, but specifically their internet trade should be implemented as key elements of alcohol policies to reduce unrecorded alcohol consumption, which is currently about 33 % of total consumption in Russia. PMID:28663784

  3. The internet trade of counterfeit spirits in Russia - an emerging problem undermining alcohol, public health and youth protection policies?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neufeld, Maria; Lachenmeier, Dirk W; Walch, Stephan G; Rehm, Jürgen

    2017-01-01

    Counterfeit alcohol belongs to the category of unrecorded alcohol not reflected in official statistics. The internet trade of alcoholic beverages has been prohibited by the Russian Federation since 2007, but various sellers still offer counterfeit spirits (i.e., forged brand spirits) over the internet to Russian consumers, mostly in a non-deceptive fashion at prices up to 15 times lower than in regular sale. The public health issues arising from this unregulated trade include potential harm to underage drinkers, hazards due to toxic ingredients such as methanol, but most importantly alcohol harms due to potentially increased drinking volumes due to low prices and high availability on the internet. The internet sale also undermines existing alcohol policies such as restrictions of sale locations, sale times and minimum pricing. The need to enforce measures against counterfeiting of spirits, but specifically their internet trade should be implemented as key elements of alcohol policies to reduce unrecorded alcohol consumption, which is currently about 33 % of total consumption in Russia.

  4. Crisis of confidence: utilities, public relations, and credibility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sullivan, F.C.

    1977-01-01

    This book deals principally with the role of the public utility in the business sector and specifically with its patterns of communications in this turbulent era of changing public opinion. Offering the premise that time has almost run out to achieve public understanding in today's mounting energy crisis, Frank C. Sullivan diagnoses the problems, examines available communication techniques, and offers a pragmatic approach to action which will stimulate and challenge neophyte and professional alike. The book touches on the history of public relations, discusses its functions and role in utility management, and provides practical suggestions and sound advice on corporate credibility and accounting. Following a ''Rationale for Action'' the book's twenty-two chapters are grouped in four major sections: Public Relations and the Utility; Planning for Rate Increases; The Utility and its Publics, and Private vs. Public Ownership. In his epilogue, ''The Dimensions of Disbelief,'' the author sets forth his candid and provocative thesis for action and change.

  5. The web and public confidence in MMR vaccination in Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aquino, Francesco; Donzelli, Gabriele; De Franco, Emanuela; Privitera, Gaetano; Lopalco, Pier Luigi; Carducci, Annalaura

    2017-08-16

    Measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccination coverage in Italy has been decreasing starting from 2012 and, at the present, none of the Italian regions has achieved the goal of 95% coverage target. A decision of the Court of Justice of Rimini in March 2012 that awarded vaccine-injury compensation for a case of autism has been indicated as a probable trigger event leading to a reduction of vaccine confidence in Italy. The aim of the study was to explore the relationship between MMR vaccination coverage to online search trends and social network activity on the topic "autism and MMR vaccine", during the period 2010-2015. A significant inverse correlation was found between MMR vaccination coverage and Internet search activity, tweets and Facebook posts. New media might have played a role in spreading misinformation. Media monitoring could be useful to assess the level of vaccine hesitancy and to plan and target effective information campaigns. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. 77 FR 5471 - Announcement of Public Meeting on the Consumer Confidence Report (CCR) Rule Retrospective Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-02-03

    ... Announcement of Public Meeting on the Consumer Confidence Report (CCR) Rule Retrospective Review AGENCY... stakeholder input on the Consumer Confidence Report (CCR) Rule as part of the agency's Retrospective Review of... implementing CCR delivery certification, use of CCRs to meet Tier 3 Public Notification requirements, and how...

  7. 77 FR 55833 - Announcement of Public Meeting on the Consumer Confidence Report (CCR) Rule Retrospective Review...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-11

    ... on the Consumer Confidence Report (CCR) Rule Retrospective Review and Request for Public Comment on Potential Approaches to Electronic Delivery of the CCR AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). ACTION... potential approaches for providing Consumer Confidence Reports (CCR) via electronic delivery. EPA plans to...

  8. 77 FR 57566 - Announcement of Public Meeting on the Consumer Confidence Report (CCR) Rule Retrospective Review...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-18

    ... ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY [EPA-HQ-OW-2012-0035; FRL-9730-7] Announcement of Public Meeting on the Consumer Confidence Report (CCR) Rule Retrospective Review and Request for Public Comment on Potential Approaches to Electronic Delivery of the CCR; Correction AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency...

  9. The internet trade of counterfeit spirits in Russia – an emerging problem undermining alcohol, public health and youth protection policies? [version 2; referees: 2 approved

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Neufeld

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Counterfeit alcohol belongs to the category of unrecorded alcohol not reflected in official statistics. The internet trade of alcoholic beverages has been prohibited by the Russian Federation since 2007, but various sellers still offer counterfeit spirits (i.e., forged brand spirits over the internet to Russian consumers, mostly in a non-deceptive fashion at prices up to 15 times lower than in regular sale. The public health issues arising from this unregulated trade include potential harm to underage drinkers, hazards due to toxic ingredients such as methanol, but most importantly alcohol harms due to potentially increased drinking volumes due to low prices and high availability on the internet. The internet sale also undermines existing alcohol policies such as restrictions of sale locations, sale times and minimum pricing. The need to enforce measures against counterfeiting of spirits, but specifically their internet trade should be implemented as key elements of alcohol policies to reduce unrecorded alcohol consumption, which is currently about 33 % of total consumption in Russia.

  10. The internet trade of counterfeit spirits in Russia – an emerging problem undermining alcohol, public health and youth protection policies? [version 1; referees: 2 approved

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Neufeld

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Counterfeit alcohol belongs to the category of unrecorded alcohol not reflected in official statistics. The internet trade of alcoholic beverages has been prohibited by the Russian Federation since 2007, but various sellers still offer counterfeit spirits (i.e., forged brand spirits over the internet to Russian consumers, mostly in a non-deceptive fashion at prices up to 15 times lower than in regular sale. The public health issues arising from this unregulated trade include potential harm to underage drinkers, hazards due to toxic ingredients such as methanol, but most importantly alcohol harms due to potentially increased drinking volumes due to low prices and high availability on the internet. The internet sale also undermines existing alcohol policies such as restrictions of sale locations, sale times and minimum pricing. The need to enforce measures against counterfeiting of spirits, but specifically their internet trade should be implemented as key elements of alcohol policies to reduce unrecorded alcohol consumption, which is currently about 33 % of total consumption in Russia.

  11. Can public confidence and acceptance be won by advertising? Is such an approach defensible?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dionne-Marsolais, Rita

    1989-01-01

    In Canada, three objectives are identified that must be met in order to improve the climate of public opinion in favor of nuclear energy. They are: to establish credibility and trust in the industry; to establish acceptance and confidence in products and, increase the level of public support for the nuclear industry. A specific target group was also identified: men and women leaders of opinion in and 18 years old. A lot of research was conducted that led to establishing of four major strategies which could help achieving general objective over a time of 3 years: to open an on-going dialogue with the Canadian public; to introduce and familiarize the Canadian public with specific applications of nuclear energy; to present specific facts about nuclear energy; to monitor the results. Advertising is only one of the tools of this program. In all advertising efforts one should ensure that the public understands that this is the process of information not advocacy. This is considered as extremely important. It is believed that public confidence and acceptance can be won by advertising. Because of the actual Energy Dependency of Canada, ranking second in the world in electricity consumption per capita, and because Canada can no longer, rely on traditional great degree on damming large rivers to produce electricity, it is the duty of nuclear industry to provide information to the Canadian public in order for them to know all the facts when they are asked to choose between different forms of energy to produce electricity

  12. Public confidence in the management of radioactive waste: the Canadian context

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    Public confidence is significantly affected by social considerations, such as public participation in decision-making processes, transparency of activities, access to information, effective and appropriate mitigation measures, development opportunities and social justice issues. In order to increase public confidence, there is a need to fully understand social concerns and to design an effective strategy on how to address them. This is particularly so in relation to radioactive waste management decision making. A workshop held in Ottawa in October 2002 brought together a wide range of Canadian stakeholders to present their views and to debate related issues with delegates from radioactive waste management programmes in 14 countries. This third interactive workshop of the NEA Forum on Stakeholder Confidence focused on key areas such as the social concerns at play in radioactive waste management, how these concerns can be addressed, and development opportunities for local communities. These proceedings provide a summary of the workshop, the full texts of the stakeholder presentations and detailed reports of the workshop discussions. (author)

  13. Earning public trust and confidence: Requisites for managing radioactive wastes. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-11-01

    The Task Force on Radioactive Waste Management was created in April 1991 by former Secretary James D. Watkins, who asked the group to analyze the critical institutional question of how the Department of Energy (DOE) might strengthen public trust and confidence in the civilian radioactive waste management program. The panel met eight times over a period of 27 months and heard formal presentations from nearly 100 representatives of state and local governments, non-governmental organizations, and senior DOE Headquarters and Field Office managers. The group also commissioned a variety of studies from independent experts, contracted with the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Public Administration to hold workshops on designing and leading trust-evoking organizations, and carried out one survey of parties affected by the Department's radioactive waste management activities and a second one of DOE employees and contractors

  14. Earning public trust and confidence: Requisites for managing radioactive wastes. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-11-01

    The Task Force on Radioactive Waste Management was created in April 1991 by former Secretary James D. Watkins, who asked the group to analyze the critical institutional question of how the Department of Energy (DOE) might strengthen public trust and confidence in the civilian radioactive waste management program. The panel met eight times over a period of 27 months and heard formal presentations from nearly 100 representatives of state and local governments, non-governmental organizations, and senior DOE Headquarters and Field Office managers. The group also commissioned a variety of studies from independent experts, contracted with the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Public Administration to hold workshops on designing and leading trust-evoking organizations, and carried out one survey of parties affected by the Department`s radioactive waste management activities and a second one of DOE employees and contractors.

  15. Confidence in dental care and public health competency during rural practice among new dental graduates in Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wisaijohn, Thunthita; Suphanchaimat, Rapeepong; Topothai, Thitikorn; Seneerattanaprayul, Parinda; Pudpong, Nareerut; Putthasri, Weerasak

    2015-01-01

    The dental profession has played an important role in the development of the health system in Thailand. However, it is not known if dental graduates' standards of knowledge, skills, and capabilities are fulfilling the health needs of Thais. This study aimed to assess the level of confidence in dental public health competency among final-year dental students who graduated in 2013. A cross-sectional survey was conducted among 571 new dental graduates who participated in an official meeting arranged by the Ministry of Public Health in 2013. Self-administered questionnaires were used for collecting data on their confidence levels in selected public-health competencies. Of the total graduates, 72.5% anonymously responded to the questionnaire. Descriptive and inferential statistics, factor analysis, and stepwise regression were applied for data analysis. The majority of respondents expressed confidence in their ability to care for patients, but less confidence in public-health and administration competencies. The results also show that there was no significant association between demographic and educational profiles of respondents and confidence in their clinical competency. However, significantly more students who graduated from schools located outside Bangkok and vicinity rated themselves as competent in public health (coefficient = 0.333, P=0.021). New dentists who graduated from dental schools in Bangkok and vicinity had lower levels of confidence in their public-health competencies compared to those who graduated from dental schools outside Bangkok. Thus, working in rural areas after graduation could help new dentists gain more experience in rural practice, leading to higher confidence levels. The findings from this study could contribute to the improvement of the dental curriculum and contract-bonding policy to work in rural areas.

  16. Confidence in dental care and public health competency during rural practice among new dental graduates in Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wisaijohn T

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Thunthita Wisaijohn,1 Rapeepong Suphanchaimat,1,2 Thitikorn Topothai,1 Parinda Seneerattanaprayul,1 Nareerut Pudpong,1 Weerasak Putthasri1 1International Health Policy Program, Ministry of Public Health, Nonthaburi, Thailand; 2Banphai Hospital, KhonKaen, Thailand Objective: The dental profession has played an important role in the development of the health system in Thailand. However, it is not known if dental graduates' standards of knowledge, skills, and capabilities are fulfilling the health needs of Thais. This study aimed to assess the level of confidence in dental public health competency among final-year dental students who graduated in 2013. Methods: A cross-sectional survey was conducted among 571 new dental graduates who participated in an official meeting arranged by the Ministry of Public Health in 2013. Self-administered questionnaires were used for collecting data on their confidence levels in selected public-health competencies. Of the total graduates, 72.5% anonymously responded to the questionnaire. Descriptive and inferential statistics, factor analysis, and stepwise regression were applied for data analysis. Results: The majority of respondents expressed confidence in their ability to care for patients, but less confidence in public-health and administration competencies. The results also show that there was no significant association between demographic and educational profiles of respondents and confidence in their clinical competency. However, significantly more students who graduated from schools located outside Bangkok and vicinity rated themselves as competent in public health (coefficient = 0.333, P=0.021. Conclusion: New dentists who graduated from dental schools in Bangkok and vicinity had lower levels of confidence in their public-health competencies compared to those who graduated from dental schools outside Bangkok. Thus, working in rural areas after graduation could help new dentists gain more experience in rural

  17. Effort to earn public support and confidence in Hanford Site cleanup work

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, M.C.; Edwards, C.; Beers, A.A.

    1991-09-01

    Public involvement is needed for Hanford Site cleanup to succeed. If people do not know about, understand, and support cleanup, it will be more difficult and expensive. The Tri-Party Agreement calls for public involvement in decisions about cleanup options and schedules. This paper defines what public involvement means and how the Washington State Department of Ecology (Ecology), US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and US Department of Energy (DOE) have conducted it. Experience and survey research have shown ways to improve our performance. While we have improved our conduct of public meetings, we must identify other ways to involve the public. Efforts continue to open decision making earlier in the decision process, to share information that is clear and understandable, and to open the channels of communication. We have made good progress. We have many opportunities to continue to improve. This paper describes some of the highlights and lessons learned in public involvement in Hanford Site cleanup. 4 refs

  18. A tale of harm, waste and deception: how big pharma has undermined public faith in trial data disclosure and what we can do about it

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vivienne C. Bachelet

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The article addresses the issue of data stemming from interventional studies in humans conducted by the pharmaceutical industry and how lack of data, or data distortion, can impact on clinical decision making and systematic reviews. The cases of rosiglitazone (Avandia ™, GlaxoSmithKline, rofecoxib (Vioxx ™, Merck, and oseltamivir (Tamiflu ™, Roche, are discussed as examples of harm (morbidity and mortality were higher in the treatment groups, waste (government spending in public health programs was not based on evidence, and deception (non-reporting of adverse events in fase III trials. The consequences of this behavior on scientific production are manifold. Most importantly, evidence that is used to inform clinical decisions is reduced and distorted, which also includes publication bias. The article mentions several solutions that have appeared in international literature, such as registration of clinical trials prior to implementation, the use of guidelines to improve the quality of reports, encouraging the publication of all research results and safeguarding autonomy of academy and investigators. Registration of clinical trials has not been effective in preventing the opacity surrounding phase III intervention trials funded by industry. Editors of biomedical journals, health authorities in charge of approving drugs before marketing, ethics committees that authorize the conduct of trials in their facilities, researchers, academics and patient organizations, are all major stakeholders. The pharmaceutical industry is called upon to respond to these proposals that promote transparency. If they do so, public trust in research conducted by them may be recovered.

  19. Governance of Banks in an Era of Regulatory Change and Declining Public Confidence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Minto, Andrea; McCormick, Roger

    2014-01-01

    Corporate governance reforms have become more intrusive for banks than might be thought appropriate for “ordinary corporates”. “Heavier” regulation in this area is justified by the public interest at stake in bank activity and the risk to the public interest if a bank is allowed to fail (and the

  20. The internet trade of counterfeit spirits in Russia – an emerging problem undermining alcohol, public health and youth protection policies? [version 2; referees: 2 approved

    OpenAIRE

    Maria Neufeld; Dirk W. Lachenmeier; Stephan G. Walch; Jürgen Rehm

    2017-01-01

    Counterfeit alcohol belongs to the category of unrecorded alcohol not reflected in official statistics. The internet trade of alcoholic beverages has been prohibited by the Russian Federation since 2007, but various sellers still offer counterfeit spirits (i.e., forged brand spirits) over the internet to Russian consumers, mostly in a non-deceptive fashion at prices up to 15 times lower than in regular sale. The public health issues arising from this unregulated trade include potential harm t...

  1. The internet trade of counterfeit spirits in Russia – an emerging problem undermining alcohol, public health and youth protection policies? [version 1; referees: 2 approved

    OpenAIRE

    Maria Neufeld; Dirk W. Lachenmeier; Stephan G. Walch; Jürgen Rehm

    2017-01-01

    Counterfeit alcohol belongs to the category of unrecorded alcohol not reflected in official statistics. The internet trade of alcoholic beverages has been prohibited by the Russian Federation since 2007, but various sellers still offer counterfeit spirits (i.e., forged brand spirits) over the internet to Russian consumers, mostly in a non-deceptive fashion at prices up to 15 times lower than in regular sale. The public health issues arising from this unregulated trade include potential harm t...

  2. The Impact of Watergate on the Public's Trust in People and Confidence in the Mass Media.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmer, Troy A.

    1979-01-01

    Discusses a study which investigated the possibility that Watergate influenced certain nonpolitical beliefs of Americans. Analysis of data indicated that many members of the public identify with political leaders to the extent that certain actions by these leaders become a reference point for basic beliefs about people in general. (Author/DB)

  3. Predicting Public Confidence in Higher Education Institutions: An Analysis of Social Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunsaker, B. Tom; Thomas, Douglas E.

    2014-01-01

    Research indicates that there are two primary aims of the higher education institution: (a) scientific and scholarly inquiry, and (b) the instruction of students (Veblen, 1918). This aim has been reified consistently for nearly a century. By 2002, the pursuit of higher education had reached record levels. However, more recently, public confidence…

  4. Crime Wave And Public Confidence In Oodua People\\'s Congress In ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The increase in violent crimes, insecurity to lives and property and the inability of the police to effectively curb crime led to Oodua Peoples Congress (OPC) incursion in crime control in South Western Nigeria. In spite of the public recognition of the organization as an effective mechanism of crime control, opinions are divided ...

  5. Integrating natural and social sciences to inspire public confidence in radioactive waste policy case study - Committee on radioactive waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Usher, Sam

    2007-01-01

    Integrating Natural and Social Sciences to Inspire Public Confidence in Radioactive Waste Policy Case Study: Committee on Radioactive Waste Management Implementing effective long-term radioactive waste management policy is challenging, and both UK and international experience is littered with policy and programme failures. Policy must not only be underpinned by sound science and technical rationale, it must also inspire the confidence of the public and other stakeholders. However, in today's modern society, communities will not simply accept the word of scientists for setting policy based purely on technical grounds. This is particularly so in areas where there are significant social and ethical issues, such as radioactive waste disposal. To develop and implement effective policy, governments, waste owners and implementing bodies must develop processes which effectively integrate both complex technical and scientific issues, with equally challenging social and ethical concerns. These integrating processes must marry often intricate technical issues with broad public and stakeholder engagement programmes, in programmes which can expect the highest levels of public scrutiny, and must invariably be delivered within challenging time and budget constraints. This paper considers a model for how such integrating processes can be delivered. The paper reviews, as a case study, how such challenges were overcome by the Committee on Radioactive Waste Management (CoRWM), which, in July 2006, made recommendations to the UK government for the establishment of a long-term radioactive waste policy. Its recommendations were underpinned by sound science, but also engendered public confidence through undertaking the largest and most significant deliberative public and stakeholder engagement programme on a complex policy issue in the UK. Effective decision-making was enabled through the integration of both proven and bespoke methodologies, including Multi-criteria Decision Analysis and

  6. Risk perception, risk management and safety assessment: what can governments do to increase public confidence in their vaccine system?

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacDonald, Noni E; Smith, Jennifer; Appleton, Mary

    2012-09-01

    For decades vaccine program managers and governments have devoted many resources to addressing public vaccine concerns, vaccine risk perception, risk management and safety assessment. Despite ever growing evidence that vaccines are safe and effective, public concerns continue. Education and evidence based scientific messages have not ended concerns. How can governments and programs more effectively address the public's vaccine concerns and increase confidence in the vaccine safety system? Vaccination hesitation has been attributed to concerns about vaccine safety, perceptions of high vaccine risks and low disease risk and consequences. Even when the public believes vaccines are important for protection many still have concerns about vaccine safety. This overview explores how heuristics affect public perception of vaccines and vaccine safety, how the public finds and uses vaccine information, and then proposes strategies for changes in the approach to vaccine safety communications. Facts and evidence confirming the safety of vaccines are not enough. Vaccine beliefs and behaviours must be shaped. This will require a shift in the what, when, how and why of vaccine risk and benefit communication content and practice. A change to a behavioural change strategy such as the WHO COMBI program that has been applied to disease eradication efforts is suggested. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  7. Effects of Relevance- and Confidence-Enhancing Motivational Strategies, Suggested Strategies, and Statements on Academic Performance and Course Satisfaction in Undergraduate Students of a Blended Public Speaking Course

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jokelova, Antonia

    2012-01-01

    The study was conducted to examine whether the components of Relevance and Confidence from the ARCS motivational model affect academic performance and course satisfaction differently. The participants were students of an online public speaking course at a southern U.S. public university. They were divided into three groups, Relevance, Confidence,…

  8. Experience of Public Involvement in Canada Presented to the Forum for Stakeholder Confidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Facella, Jo-Ann; Patton, Pat

    2008-01-01

    Pat Patton of NWMO, Canada, summarised the experiences of the organisation's three-year study aimed at identifying a broadly supported approach to managing Canada's nuclear fuel waste. The starting point of the study was the recognition that citizen perception of safety and acceptability are strongly interrelated, therefore understanding and addressing the social dimension of safety would be critical for finding a socially acceptable RWM approach. An iterative and collaborative dialogue was conducted between specialists and citizens to both identify how safety is to be assessed and to carry out the assessment. First, objectives, values and ethical principles were defined, which formed the basis for the criteria of selecting a preferred RWM approach. The dialogue revealed that adaptability of the management approach to new information and technological advancement is a key requirement. Continuous learning, RD and D, and citizen involvement over the course of implementation were also identified as important components of the management approach. Ms Patton presented an illustrative model for public involvement during the implementation process. According to the model, implementation would be a multi-stage process with a continuous interaction between scientific and technical specialists, potentially affected communities and the implementer. Finally, Ms Patton outlined some key challenges for future dialogues between non-specialists and experts, including the development of tools for involving citizens in increasingly more knowledge-intensive areas and communicating research results which address issues highlighted by citizens

  9. Failing the vulnerable: Three new consent norms that will undermine ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2014-06-02

    Jun 2, 2014 ... shows, using a range of case studies, how important HIV-related research will be halted or undermined if the current provisions ... of Public Health and Family Medicine, University of Cape Town, South Africa; and African Centre for Migration and Society, .... contemporary issues that must be responded to.

  10. Putting First Things First: Critical Issues for Public Administration Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenbaum, Allan

    2014-01-01

    This article begins by reviewing developments in the field of public administration over the past 50 years and identifying factors that have served, in some cases unintentionally, to undermine public confidence in the actual practice of public administration. It then examines a number of important conditions that must be addressed in the…

  11. Measuring vaccine confidence: analysis of data obtained by a media surveillance system used to analyse public concerns about vaccines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larson, Heidi J; Smith, David M D; Paterson, Pauline; Cumming, Melissa; Eckersberger, Elisabeth; Freifeld, Clark C; Ghinai, Isaac; Jarrett, Caitlin; Paushter, Louisa; Brownstein, John S; Madoff, Lawrence C

    2013-07-01

    The intensity, spread, and effects of public opinion about vaccines are growing as new modes of communication speed up information sharing, contributing to vaccine hesitancy, refusals, and disease outbreaks. We aimed to develop a new application of existing surveillance systems to detect and characterise early signs of vaccine issues. We also aimed to develop a typology of concerns and a way to assess the priority of each concern. Following preliminary research by The Vaccine Confidence Project, media reports (eg, online articles, blogs, government reports) were obtained using the HealthMap automated data collection system, adapted to monitor online reports about vaccines, vaccination programmes, and vaccine-preventable diseases. Any reports that did not meet the inclusion criteria--any reference to a human vaccine or vaccination campaign or programme that was accessible online--were removed from analysis. Reports were manually analysed for content and categorised by concerns, vaccine, disease, location, and source of report, and overall positive or negative sentiment towards vaccines. They were then given a priority level depending on the seriousness of the reported event and time of event occurrence. We used descriptive statistics to analyse the data collected during a period of 1 year, after refinements to the search terms and processes had been made. We analysed data from 10,380 reports (from 144 countries) obtained between May 1, 2011, and April 30, 2012. 7171 (69%) contained positive or neutral content and 3209 (31%) contained negative content. Of the negative reports, 1977 (24%) were associated with impacts on vaccine programmes and disease outbreaks; 1726 (21%) with beliefs, awareness, and perceptions; 1371 (16%) with vaccine safety; and 1336 (16%) with vaccine delivery programmes. We were able to disaggregate the data by country and vaccine type, and monitor evolution of events over time and location in specific regions where vaccine concerns were high

  12. The 2009 Health Confidence Survey: public opinion on health reform varies; strong support for insurance market reform and public plan option, mixed response to tax cap.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fronstin, Paul; Helman, Ruth

    2009-07-01

    PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR HEALTH REFORM: Findings from the 2009 Health Confidence Survey--the 12th annual HCS--indicate that Americans have already formed strong opinions regarding various aspects of health reform, even before details have been released regarding various key factors. These issues include health insurance market reform, the availability of a public plan option, mandates on employers and individuals, subsidized coverage for the low-income population, changes to the tax treatment of job-based health benefits, and regulatory oversight of health care. These opinions may change as details surface, especially as they concern financing options. In the absence of such details, the 2009 HCS finds generally strong support for the concepts of health reform options that are currently on the table. U.S. HEALTH SYSTEM GETS POOR MARKS, BUT SO DOES A MAJOR OVERHAUL: A majority rate the nation's health care system as fair (30 percent) or poor (29 percent). Only a small minority rate it excellent (6 percent) or very good (10 percent). While 14 percent of Americans think the health care system needs a major overhaul, 51 percent agree with the statement "there are some good things about our health care system, but major changes are needed." NATIONAL HEALTH PLAN ELEMENTS RATED HIGHLY: Between 68 percent and 88 percent of Americans either strongly or somewhat support health reform ideas such as national health plans, a public plan option, guaranteed issue, expansion of Medicare and Medicaid, and employer and individual mandates. MIXED REACTION TO HEALTH BENEFITS TAX CAP: Reaction to capping the current tax exclusion of employment-based health benefits is mixed. Nearly one-half of Americans (47 percent) would switch to a lower-cost plan if the tax exclusion were capped, 38 percent would stay on their current plan and pay the additional taxes, and 9 percent don't know. CONTINUED FAITH IN EMPLOYMENT-BASED BENEFITS, BUT DOUBTS ON AFFORDABILITY: Individuals with employment

  13. Educational Cloud Services and the Mathematics Confidence, Affective Engagement, and Behavioral Engagement of Mathematics Education Students in Public University in Benue State, Nigeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iji, Clement Onwu; Abah, Joshua Abah; Anyor, Joseph Wuave

    2018-01-01

    This study investigated the impact of cloud services on mathematics education students' mathematics confidence, affective engagement, and behavioral engagement in public universities in Benue State, Nigeria. Ex-post facto research design was adopted for the study. The instrument for the study was the researcher-developed Cloud Services Mathematics…

  14. Report: Changes Needed to Improve Public Confidence in EPA’s Implementation of the Food Quality Protection Act

    Science.gov (United States)

    Report #2006-P-00003, October 19, 2005. EPA allowed public comment periods when developing the Agency’s major FQPA science policy papers, and developed and implemented a public comment policy for all pesticide reregistrations in 2002.

  15. Public health officials and MECs should be held liable for harm ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Shortages of radiology equipment machines in the South African. (SA) public health sector, resulting in harm to patients, have been reported, which undermines the public's confidence in the public sector health facilities and its ability to host a national health insurance scheme. In Gauteng Province in 2014, a broken X-ray ...

  16. Using the confidence interval confidently.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hazra, Avijit

    2017-10-01

    Biomedical research is seldom done with entire populations but rather with samples drawn from a population. Although we work with samples, our goal is to describe and draw inferences regarding the underlying population. It is possible to use a sample statistic and estimates of error in the sample to get a fair idea of the population parameter, not as a single value, but as a range of values. This range is the confidence interval (CI) which is estimated on the basis of a desired confidence level. Calculation of the CI of a sample statistic takes the general form: CI = Point estimate ± Margin of error, where the margin of error is given by the product of a critical value (z) derived from the standard normal curve and the standard error of point estimate. Calculation of the standard error varies depending on whether the sample statistic of interest is a mean, proportion, odds ratio (OR), and so on. The factors affecting the width of the CI include the desired confidence level, the sample size and the variability in the sample. Although the 95% CI is most often used in biomedical research, a CI can be calculated for any level of confidence. A 99% CI will be wider than 95% CI for the same sample. Conflict between clinical importance and statistical significance is an important issue in biomedical research. Clinical importance is best inferred by looking at the effect size, that is how much is the actual change or difference. However, statistical significance in terms of P only suggests whether there is any difference in probability terms. Use of the CI supplements the P value by providing an estimate of actual clinical effect. Of late, clinical trials are being designed specifically as superiority, non-inferiority or equivalence studies. The conclusions from these alternative trial designs are based on CI values rather than the P value from intergroup comparison.

  17. Case-study session 1. Mass media and public information on nuclear energy and radiation: Striving for two-way confidence and understanding. Introduction by session chairman

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    SanLaholma, Juhani

    1989-01-01

    The ENS Information Committee carried out an assessment of public opinion and news media. The conclusions of this assessment are presented. The ENS recognized fully the significant role of the news media in reflecting public opinion in the nuclear field. It was concluded that it is worthwhile and important for the nuclear organizations to consider why unverified, even false, information appears so often in the media. The study emphasized that the nuclear organizations' relations with the news media are of high significance. ENS emphasized that it is important for the nuclear sector sector to pursue an active and frank information policy with the news media. ENS recognized that it is our task to prepare and provide the news media and the public with prompt, correct and objective information it is endless work but, at the same time, our only way of winning and attaining credibility and confidence among the public

  18. Interrelation of economic confidence with other types of confidence

    OpenAIRE

    Бонецький, Орест Олегович

    2013-01-01

    The paper gives the object and the subject of the study, which are used as a criterion allowing to separate the economic confidence from other types of confidence. The terms describing the psychological and sociological confidence are proposed. It was found that the economic confidence is interrelated with psychological confidence by motivation and advertising, sociological – by the results of activity of public organizations, state regulation of the economy. On the example of information-com...

  19. The Effect of the 2008 War on Estonian Public Confidence in International Organisations: A Mixed Methods Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Moes, Jeroen; Melchior, Inge; Gugushvili, Alexi

    2014-01-01

    When the so-called 5 Day War between Russia and Georgia occurred in the summer of 2008, the Estonian public reaction was especially passionate. Two major explanations stem from the strong identification of Estonians with the situation of Georgia (post-Soviet state, small country, Russian

  20. How social influence can undermine the wisdom of crowd effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorenz, Jan; Rauhut, Heiko; Schweitzer, Frank; Helbing, Dirk

    2011-01-01

    Social groups can be remarkably smart and knowledgeable when their averaged judgements are compared with the judgements of individuals. Already Galton [Galton F (1907) Nature 75:7] found evidence that the median estimate of a group can be more accurate than estimates of experts. This wisdom of crowd effect was recently supported by examples from stock markets, political elections, and quiz shows [Surowiecki J (2004) The Wisdom of Crowds]. In contrast, we demonstrate by experimental evidence (N = 144) that even mild social influence can undermine the wisdom of crowd effect in simple estimation tasks. In the experiment, subjects could reconsider their response to factual questions after having received average or full information of the responses of other subjects. We compare subjects’ convergence of estimates and improvements in accuracy over five consecutive estimation periods with a control condition, in which no information about others’ responses was provided. Although groups are initially “wise,” knowledge about estimates of others narrows the diversity of opinions to such an extent that it undermines the wisdom of crowd effect in three different ways. The “social influence effect” diminishes the diversity of the crowd without improvements of its collective error. The “range reduction effect” moves the position of the truth to peripheral regions of the range of estimates so that the crowd becomes less reliable in providing expertise for external observers. The “confidence effect” boosts individuals’ confidence after convergence of their estimates despite lack of improved accuracy. Examples of the revealed mechanism range from misled elites to the recent global financial crisis. PMID:21576485

  1. Sustaining Vaccine Confidence in the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardt, Karin; Schmidt-Ott, Ruprecht; Glismann, Steffen; Adegbola, Richard A.; Meurice, François P.

    2013-01-01

    Vaccination provides many health and economic benefits to individuals and society, and public support for immunization programs is generally high. However, the benefits of vaccines are often not fully valued when public discussions on vaccine safety, quality or efficacy arise, and the spread of misinformation via the internet and other media has the potential to undermine immunization programs. Factors associated with improved public confidence in vaccines include evidence-based decision-making procedures and recommendations, controlled processes for licensing and monitoring vaccine safety and effectiveness and disease surveillance. Community engagement with appropriate communication approaches for each audience is a key factor in building trust in vaccines. Vaccine safety/quality issues should be handled rapidly and transparently by informing and involving those most affected and those concerned with public health in effective ways. Openness and transparency in the exchange of information between industry and other stakeholders is also important. To maximize the safety of vaccines, and thus sustain trust in vaccines, partnerships are needed between public health sector stakeholders. Vaccine confidence can be improved through collaborations that ensure high vaccine uptake rates and that inform the public and other stakeholders of the benefits of vaccines and how vaccine safety is constantly assessed, assured and communicated. PMID:26344109

  2. Sustaining Vaccine Confidence in the 21st Century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karin Hardt

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Vaccination provides many health and economic benefits to individuals and society, and public support for immunization programs is generally high. However, the benefits of vaccines are often not fully valued when public discussions on vaccine safety, quality or efficacy arise, and the spread of misinformation via the internet and other media has the potential to undermine immunization programs. Factors associated with improved public confidence in vaccines include evidence-based decision-making procedures and recommendations, controlled processes for licensing and monitoring vaccine safety and effectiveness and disease surveillance. Community engagement with appropriate communication approaches for each audience is a key factor in building trust in vaccines. Vaccine safety/quality issues should be handled rapidly and transparently by informing and involving those most affected and those concerned with public health in effective ways. Openness and transparency in the exchange of information between industry and other stakeholders is also important. To maximize the safety of vaccines, and thus sustain trust in vaccines, partnerships are needed between public health sector stakeholders. Vaccine confidence can be improved through collaborations that ensure high vaccine uptake rates and that inform the public and other stakeholders of the benefits of vaccines and how vaccine safety is constantly assessed, assured and communicated.

  3. The role of the public sector's research programme in support of the authorities and in building confidence on the safety of spent fuel disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vuori, S.; Rasilainen, K.

    2002-01-01

    A multiphase research programme was launched in 1989 to support the Finnish authorities in their activities concerning spent fuel management. The Finnish programme for spent fuel management has so far managed to keep its original time schedule at least partly due to clearly defined responsibilities between the nuclear energy producing industry and the authorities. It appears that the public sector's research programme has been successful in its supporting role by providing research results both on technical/ natural science and social science issues. In addition, the research programme has contributed directly and indirectly in building confidence on the post-closure and operational safety of a spent fuel disposal facility. (authors)

  4. Assessing public speaking fear with the short form of the Personal Report of Confidence as a Speaker scale: confirmatory factor analyses among a French-speaking community sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heeren, Alexandre; Ceschi, Grazia; Valentiner, David P; Dethier, Vincent; Philippot, Pierre

    2013-01-01

    The main aim of this study was to assess the reliability and structural validity of the French version of the 12-item version of the Personal Report of Confidence as Speaker (PRCS), one of the most promising measurements of public speaking fear. A total of 611 French-speaking volunteers were administered the French versions of the short PRCS, the Liebowitz Social Anxiety Scale, the Fear of Negative Evaluation scale, as well as the Trait version of the Spielberger State-Trait Anxiety Inventory and the Beck Depression Inventory-II, which assess the level of anxious and depressive symptoms, respectively. Regarding its structural validity, confirmatory factor analyses indicated a single-factor solution, as implied by the original version. Good scale reliability (Cronbach's alpha = 0.86) was observed. The item discrimination analysis suggested that all the items contribute to the overall scale score reliability. The French version of the short PRCS showed significant correlations with the Liebowitz Social Anxiety Scale (r = 0.522), the Fear of Negative Evaluation scale (r = 0.414), the Spielberger State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (r = 0.516), and the Beck Depression Inventory-II (r = 0.361). The French version of the short PRCS is a reliable and valid measure for the evaluation of the fear of public speaking among a French-speaking sample. These findings have critical consequences for the measurement of psychological and pharmacological treatment effectiveness in public speaking fear among a French-speaking sample.

  5. Assessing public speaking fear with the short form of the Personal Report of Confidence as a Speaker scale: confirmatory factor analyses among a French-speaking community sample

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heeren A

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Alexandre Heeren,1,2 Grazia Ceschi,3 David P Valentiner,4 Vincent Dethier,1 Pierre Philippot11Université Catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium; 2National Fund for Scientific Research, Brussels, Belgium; 3Department of Psychology, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland; 4Department of Psychology, Northern Illinois University, DeKalb, IL, USABackground: The main aim of this study was to assess the reliability and structural validity of the French version of the 12-item version of the Personal Report of Confidence as Speaker (PRCS, one of the most promising measurements of public speaking fear.Methods: A total of 611 French-speaking volunteers were administered the French versions of the short PRCS, the Liebowitz Social Anxiety Scale, the Fear of Negative Evaluation scale, as well as the Trait version of the Spielberger State-Trait Anxiety Inventory and the Beck Depression Inventory-II, which assess the level of anxious and depressive symptoms, respectively.Results: Regarding its structural validity, confirmatory factor analyses indicated a single-factor solution, as implied by the original version. Good scale reliability (Cronbach’s alpha = 0.86 was observed. The item discrimination analysis suggested that all the items contribute to the overall scale score reliability. The French version of the short PRCS showed significant correlations with the Liebowitz Social Anxiety Scale (r = 0.522, the Fear of Negative Evaluation scale (r = 0.414, the Spielberger State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (r = 0.516, and the Beck Depression Inventory-II (r = 0.361.Conclusion: The French version of the short PRCS is a reliable and valid measure for the evaluation of the fear of public speaking among a French-speaking sample. These findings have critical consequences for the measurement of psychological and pharmacological treatment effectiveness in public speaking fear among a French-speaking sample.Keywords: social phobia, public speaking, confirmatory

  6. On the alleged memory-undermining effects of daydreaming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otgaar, Henry; Cleere, Colleen; Merckelbach, Harald; Peters, Maarten; Jelicic, Marko; Lynn, Steven Jay

    2016-01-01

    In three experiments, we examined the memory-undermining effects of daydreaming for (un)related stimuli. In Experiments 1 and 2, we tested whether daydreaming fosters forgetting of semantically interrelated material and hence, catalyzes false memory production. In Experiment 3, we examined the memory effects of different daydreaming instructions. In Experiment 1, daydreaming did not undermine correct recall of semantically interrelated words, nor did it affect false memories. In Experiment 2, we again failed to find that daydreaming exerted memory-undermining effects a. In Experiment 3, no memory effects were obtained using different daydreaming instructions. Together, our studies fail to show appreciable memory-undermining effects of daydreaming. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. The role of an EU harmonised E and T system in radiation protection for public acceptance and confidence building in Romania

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ceclan, Mihail; Ceclan, Rodica Elena; Zsombori, Vilmos; Rosca, Gabriela

    2007-01-01

    The paper aims at presenting the efforts made in the last two years for modernizing the Romanian education and training (E and T) system in Radiation Protection (RP). Increasing the responsive capacity in emergency situations is an important element for public acceptance and confidence building in Romania regarding the nuclear power. The responsive capacity in emergency situations is related to the Romanian E and T system in RP. Since January 1st, 2007 Romania became an EU member but the Romania's EU integration process will continue for still several years. The Romania's EU integration priorities are not only to transform the economy radically, but also to modernize its E and T system in general and in RP in particular. The modernization of the Romanian E and T system in RP is a real concern, related to the National Nuclear Programme (NNP) which foresees the commissioning of unit 2 of Cernavoda NPP in 2007 and the completion of units 3 and 4 until 2015. The natural way of modernizing the Romanian E and T system in RP is the cooperation with EUropean Training and Education in RP (EUTERP) Platform which was created in 2006 as a network covering the 25 European Union Member States as well as the Candidate States Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania and Turkey. Romania's integration process into EU radiation protection field is ongoing and has produced the following results: -- the Romanian branch of EUTERP Platform, called ROmanian Training and Education in Radiation Protection Platform (RO T ERP Platform) was established ; -- the RO T ERP Platform serves as a network, aiming at improving the cooperation between the various actors in the field of radiation protection E and T: - national authorities implied in RP, as CNCAN; - national bodies responsible for professional education and dedicated training, Ministry of Education and Research; - providers of training and education in the radiation protection area, universities and training centers; - professional organizations

  8. Confidant Relations in Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jenny Isaacs

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Confidants are often described as the individuals with whom we choose to disclose personal, intimate matters. The presence of a confidant is associated with both mental and physical health benefits. In this study, 135 Italian adults responded to a structured questionnaire that asked if they had a confidant, and if so, to describe various features of the relationship. The vast majority of participants (91% reported the presence of a confidant and regarded this relationship as personally important, high in mutuality and trust, and involving minimal lying. Confidants were significantly more likely to be of the opposite sex. Participants overall were significantly more likely to choose a spouse or other family member as their confidant, rather than someone outside of the family network. Familial confidants were generally seen as closer, and of greater value, than non-familial confidants. These findings are discussed within the context of Italian culture.

  9. The Model Confidence Set

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Peter Reinhard; Lunde, Asger; Nason, James M.

    The paper introduces the model confidence set (MCS) and applies it to the selection of models. A MCS is a set of models that is constructed such that it will contain the best model with a given level of confidence. The MCS is in this sense analogous to a confidence interval for a parameter. The MCS...

  10. Exploration of a theory of internal audit: a study on the theoretical foundations of internal audit in relation to the nature and the control systems of Dutch public listed firms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Swinkels, W.H.A.

    2012-01-01

    Scandals have undermined investor confidence in the management of firms and drawn global attention to how Management Boards of public firms are in-control of their operations. These scandals cleared the way for corporate governance committees to define new requirements on the control systems of

  11. Addressing the vaccine confidence gap.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larson, Heidi J; Cooper, Louis Z; Eskola, Juhani; Katz, Samuel L; Ratzan, Scott

    2011-08-06

    Vaccines--often lauded as one of the greatest public health interventions--are losing public confidence. Some vaccine experts have referred to this decline in confidence as a crisis. We discuss some of the characteristics of the changing global environment that are contributing to increased public questioning of vaccines, and outline some of the specific determinants of public trust. Public decision making related to vaccine acceptance is neither driven by scientific nor economic evidence alone, but is also driven by a mix of psychological, sociocultural, and political factors, all of which need to be understood and taken into account by policy and other decision makers. Public trust in vaccines is highly variable and building trust depends on understanding perceptions of vaccines and vaccine risks, historical experiences, religious or political affiliations, and socioeconomic status. Although provision of accurate, scientifically based evidence on the risk-benefit ratios of vaccines is crucial, it is not enough to redress the gap between current levels of public confidence in vaccines and levels of trust needed to ensure adequate and sustained vaccine coverage. We call for more research not just on individual determinants of public trust, but on what mix of factors are most likely to sustain public trust. The vaccine community demands rigorous evidence on vaccine efficacy and safety and technical and operational feasibility when introducing a new vaccine, but has been negligent in demanding equally rigorous research to understand the psychological, social, and political factors that affect public trust in vaccines. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. A discursive formation that undermined integration at a historically ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... thinking; the dominant discursive frame of teachers was one of student deficit. These regularities point to a discursive formation (Foucault, 1977) that undermine integration and would reproduce previous racialised inequalities. Finally, an explanation of the discursive formation is touched on followed by recommendations.

  13. Monitoring and analysis of surface changes from undermining

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kajzar, Vlastimil; Doležalová, Hana

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 59, č. 4 (2013), s. 1-10 ISSN 1802-5420 R&D Projects: GA MŠk ED2.1.00/03.0082 Institutional support: RVO:68145535 Keywords : undermining * surface changes * surveying methods Subject RIV: DH - Mining, incl. Coal Mining http://gse.vsb.cz/2013/LIX-2013-4-1-10.pdf

  14. Consciousness and confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenthal, David

    2018-02-02

    It is natural to see conscious perceptions as typically bringing with them a degree of confidence about what is perceived. So one might also expect such confidence not to occur if a perception is not conscious. This has resulted in the use of confidence as a test or measure of consciousness, one that may be more reliable and fine-grained than the traditional appeal to subjective report as a test for a perception's being conscious. The following describes theoretical difficulties for the use of confidence as a reliable test for consciousness, which show that confidence is less reliable than subjective report. Difficulties are also presented for the use of confidence ratings in assessing degrees of consciousness, which cast doubt on any advantage confidence might have from being more fine-grained than subjective report. And an explanation is proposed for the wide appeal of using confidence to assess subjective awareness, an explanation that also makes clear why confidence is less reliable than subjective report. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Natural Analogues - One Way to Help Build Public Confidence in the Predicted Performance of a Mined Geologic Repository for Nuclear Waste

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stuckless, J. S.

    2002-02-26

    The general public needs to have a way to judge the predicted long-term performance of the potential high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain. The applicability and reliability of mathematical models used to make this prediction are neither easily understood nor accepted by the public. Natural analogues can provide the average person with a tool to assess the predicted performance and other scientific conclusions. For example, hydrologists with the Yucca Mountain Project have predicted that most of the water moving through the unsaturated zone at Yucca Mountain, Nevada will move through the host rock and around tunnels. Thus, seepage into tunnels is predicted to be a small percentage of available infiltration. This hypothesis can be tested experimentally and with some quantitative analogues. It can also be tested qualitatively using a variety of analogues such as (1) well-preserved Paleolithic to Neolithic paintings in caves and rock shelters, (2) biological remains preserved in caves and rock shelters, and (3) artifacts and paintings preserved in man-made underground openings. These examples can be found in materials that are generally available to the non-scientific public and can demonstrate the surprising degree of preservation of fragile and easily destroyed materials for very long periods of time within the unsaturated zone.

  16. Will Biomedical Enhancements Undermine Solidarity, Responsibility, Equality and Autonomy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lev, Ori

    2009-01-01

    Prominent thinkers such as Jurgen Habermas and Michael Sandel are warning that biomedical enhancements will undermine fundamental political values. Yet, whether biomedical enhancements will undermine such values depends on how biomedical enhancements will function, how they will be administered and to whom. Since only few enhancements are obtainable, it is difficult to tell whether their predictions are sound. Nevertheless, such warnings are extremely valuable. As a society we must, at the very least, be aware of developments that could have harmful consequences. Indeed, if important values would be jeopardized, we should take appropriate measures to protect them. This paper focuses on four central values: solidarity, personal responsibility, equality and autonomy. It delineates the conditions under which biomedical enhancements would undermine these values. It also details the circumstances under which these values would be unaffected by enhancements as well as those under which they would be promoted. Specifying these conditions is valuable; it would enable society to prepare appropriate ethical guidelines and policy responses in advance. PMID:20002073

  17. Workplace wellness programs: how regulatory flexibility might undermine success.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pomeranz, Jennifer L

    2014-11-01

    The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act revised the law related to workplace wellness programs, which have become part of the nation's broader health strategy. Health-contingent programs are required to be reasonably designed. However, the regulatory requirements are lax and might undermine program efficacy in terms of both health gains and financial return. I propose a method for the government to support a best-practices approach by considering an accreditation or certification process. Additionally I discuss the need for program evaluation and the potential for employers to be subject to litigation if programs are not carefully implemented.

  18. Undermining the rules in home care services for the elderly in Norway: flexibility and cooperation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wollscheid, Sabine; Eriksen, John; Hallvik, Jørgen

    2013-06-01

    This study explores the provision of home care services (home nursing and domiciliary help) for the elderly in Norwegian municipalities with purchaser-provider split model. The study draws on the assumption that flexibility in adjusting services to the care receivers' needs, and cooperation between provider and purchasers are indicators of good quality of care. Data were collected through semi-structured telephone interviews with 22 team leaders of provider units in nine municipalities. Data were collected in 2008-2009. The study has been approved by the Norwegian Social Science Data Services. We identified four different ways of organising home care services under a purchaser-provider split model: Provider empowerment, New Public Management, Vague instructions and undermining the rules. High flexibility in providing care and cooperation with the purchaser unit were identified by the team leaders as characteristics for good care. Our findings suggest that the care providers use individual strategies that allow flexibility and cooperation rather than rigidly abiding to the regulations the purchaser-provider split models implies. Ironically, in provider units where the 'rules were undermined', the informants (team leaders of provider units) seemed to be most satisfied with the quality of home care that they delivered. © 2012 Nordic College of Caring Science.

  19. Raising Confident Kids

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... road ahead — a road they can take with confidence. Reviewed by: D'Arcy Lyness, PhD Date reviewed: July 2013 More on this topic for: Parents Kids Teens Developing Your Child's Self-Esteem Help Your Child Get Organized Teaching Your Child ...

  20. Confidence of Today's Youth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Intellect, 1977

    1977-01-01

    Results of a survey by the Gallup Organization, Inc., commissioned by the Miami Valley (Ohio) Young Adult Ministry and released at Wright State University, show that young Americans essentially have confidence in the basic American ideas and institutions, such as organized religion, the future of the U.S., free enterprise, labor unions, business…

  1. Risk factors for the undermined coal bed mining method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arad, V. [Petrosani Univ., Petrosani (Romania). Dept. of Mining Engineering; Arad, S. [Petrosani Univ., Petrosani (Romania). Dept of Electrical Engineering

    2009-07-01

    The Romanian mining industry has been in a serious decline and is undergoing ample restructuring. Analyses of reliability and risk are most important during the early stages of a project in guiding the decision as to whether or not to proceed and in helping to establish design criteria. A technical accident occurred in 2008 at the Petrila coal mine involving an explosion during the exploitation of a coal seam. Over time a series of technical accidents, such as explosions and ignitions of methane gas, roof blowing phenomena or self-ignition of coal and hazard combustions have occurred. This paper presented an analysis of factors that led to this accident as well an analysis of factors related to the mining method. Specifically, the paper discussed the geomechanical characteristics of rocks and coal; the geodynamic phenomenon from working face 431; the spontaneous combustion phenomenon; gas accumulation; and the pressure and the height of the undermined coal bed. It was concluded that for the specific conditions encountered in Petrila colliery, the undermined bed height should be between 5 and 7 metres, depending on the geomechanic characteristics of coal and surrounding rocks. 8 refs., 1 tab., 3 figs.

  2. Interpretando correctamente en salud pública estimaciones puntuales, intervalos de confianza y contrastes de hipótesis Accurate interpretation of point estimates, confidence intervals, and hypothesis tests in public health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuel G Scotto

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available El presente ensayo trata de aclarar algunos conceptos utilizados habitualmente en el campo de investigación de la salud pública, que en numerosas situaciones son interpretados de manera incorrecta. Entre ellos encontramos la estimación puntual, los intervalos de confianza, y los contrastes de hipótesis. Estableciendo un paralelismo entre estos tres conceptos, podemos observar cuáles son sus diferencias más importantes a la hora de ser interpretados, tanto desde el punto de vista del enfoque clásico como desde la óptica bayesiana.This essay reviews some statistical concepts frequently used in public health research that are commonly misinterpreted. These include point estimates, confidence intervals, and hypothesis tests. By comparing them using the classical and the Bayesian perspectives, their interpretation becomes clearer.

  3. Confidence in Numerical Simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hemez, Francois M.

    2015-01-01

    This PowerPoint presentation offers a high-level discussion of uncertainty, confidence and credibility in scientific Modeling and Simulation (M&S). It begins by briefly evoking M&S trends in computational physics and engineering. The first thrust of the discussion is to emphasize that the role of M&S in decision-making is either to support reasoning by similarity or to ''forecast,'' that is, make predictions about the future or extrapolate to settings or environments that cannot be tested experimentally. The second thrust is to explain that M&S-aided decision-making is an exercise in uncertainty management. The three broad classes of uncertainty in computational physics and engineering are variability and randomness, numerical uncertainty and model-form uncertainty. The last part of the discussion addresses how scientists ''think.'' This thought process parallels the scientific method where by a hypothesis is formulated, often accompanied by simplifying assumptions, then, physical experiments and numerical simulations are performed to confirm or reject the hypothesis. ''Confidence'' derives, not just from the levels of training and experience of analysts, but also from the rigor with which these assessments are performed, documented and peer-reviewed.

  4. Local Nordic tobacco interests collaborated with multinational companies to maintain a united front and undermine tobacco control policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiilamo, Heikki; Glantz, Stanton A

    2013-03-01

    To analyse how local tobacco companies in the Nordic countries, individually and through National Manufacturers' Associations, cooperated with British American Tobacco and Philip Morris in denying the health hazards of smoking and undermining tobacco control. Analysis of tobacco control policies in the Nordic countries and tobacco industry documents. Nordic countries were early adopters of tobacco control policies. The multinational tobacco companies recognised this fact and mobilised to oppose these policies, in part because of fear that they would set unfavourable precedents. Since at least 1972, the Nordic tobacco companies were well informed about and willing to participate in the multinational companies activities to obscure the health dangers of smoking and secondhand smoke and to oppose tobacco control policies. Cooperation between multinational companies, Nordic national manufacturer associations and local companies ensured a united front on smoking and health issues in the Nordic area that was consistent with the positions that the multinational companies were taking. This cooperation delayed smoke-free laws and undermined other tobacco control measures. Local tobacco companies worked with multinational companies to undermine tobacco control in distant and small Nordic markets because of concern that pioneering policies initiated in Nordic countries would spread to bigger market areas. Claims by the local Nordic companies that they were not actively involved with the multinationals are not supported by the facts. These results also demonstrate that the industry appreciates the global importance of both positive and negative public health precedents in tobacco control.

  5. Globalization of consumer confidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Çelik Sadullah

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The globalization of world economies and the importance of nowcasting analysis have been at the core of the recent literature. Nevertheless, these two strands of research are hardly coupled. This study aims to fill this gap through examining the globalization of the consumer confidence index (CCI by applying conventional and unconventional econometric methods. The US CCI is used as the benchmark in tests of comovement among the CCIs of several developing and developed countries, with the data sets divided into three sub-periods: global liquidity abundance, the Great Recession, and postcrisis. The existence and/or degree of globalization of the CCIs vary according to the period, whereas globalization in the form of coherence and similar paths is observed only during the Great Recession and, surprisingly, stronger in developing/emerging countries.

  6. Identifying social factors that undermine support for nature-based coastal management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Josephs, Lauren I; Humphries, Austin T

    2018-04-15

    Human use and degradation of coastal ecosystems is at an all-time high. Thus, a current challenge for environmental management and research is moving beyond ecological definitions of success and integrating socioeconomic factors. Projects and studies with this aim, however, have focused primarily on monetary valuations of ecosystem functions, overlooking the behaviors and psycho-social motivations of environmental management. Using a nature-based salt marsh restoration project on Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts, we assess the role of human attitudes and preferences in evaluating social success for ecosystem management. We use structural equation modeling to compare the strengths of social variables in predicting restoration project support, and find public understanding to be a more important predictor than personal values. Our results show that even among stakeholders with strong pro-environmental values, a weak understanding of the management initiative can undermine support. We also find that project support does not necessarily translate to the prioritization of similar management strategies. Instead, when individuals consider overall management priorities, differences arise between particular resource user-groups. This suggests that strong public support for individual initiatives can misconstrue complexities in stakeholder preferences that emerge in more comprehensive management considerations. Future investigations of the psycho-social components of management solutions should address the potentially tiered nature of human preferences, as well as whether public perceptions of management effectiveness act as an additional context-dependency of social viability. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Monitoring tigers with confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linkie, Matthew; Guillera-Arroita, Gurutzeta; Smith, Joseph; Rayan, D Mark

    2010-12-01

    With only 5% of the world's wild tigers (Panthera tigris Linnaeus, 1758) remaining since the last century, conservationists urgently need to know whether or not the management strategies currently being employed are effectively protecting these tigers. This knowledge is contingent on the ability to reliably monitor tiger populations, or subsets, over space and time. In the this paper, we focus on the 2 seminal methodologies (camera trap and occupancy surveys) that have enabled the monitoring of tiger populations with greater confidence. Specifically, we: (i) describe their statistical theory and application in the field; (ii) discuss issues associated with their survey designs and state variable modeling; and, (iii) discuss their future directions. These methods have had an unprecedented influence on increasing statistical rigor within tiger surveys and, also, surveys of other carnivore species. Nevertheless, only 2 published camera trap studies have gone beyond single baseline assessments and actually monitored population trends. For low density tiger populations (e.g. tiger/100 km(2)) obtaining sufficient precision for state variable estimates from camera trapping remains a challenge because of insufficient detection probabilities and/or sample sizes. Occupancy surveys have overcome this problem by redefining the sampling unit (e.g. grid cells and not individual tigers). Current research is focusing on developing spatially explicit capture-mark-recapture models and estimating abundance indices from landscape-scale occupancy surveys, as well as the use of genetic information for identifying and monitoring tigers. The widespread application of these monitoring methods in the field now enables complementary studies on the impact of the different threats to tiger populations and their response to varying management intervention. © 2010 ISZS, Blackwell Publishing and IOZ/CAS.

  8. Confidence in biopreparedness authorities among Finnish conscripts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vartti, Anne-Marie; Aro, Arja R; Jormanainen, Vesa; Henriksson, Markus; Nikkari, Simo

    2010-08-01

    A large sample of Finnish military conscripts of the armored brigade were questioned on the extent to which they trusted the information given biopreparedness authorities (such as the police, military, health care, and public health institutions) and how confident they were in the authority's ability to protect the public during a potential infectious disease outbreak, from either natural or deliberate causes. Participants answered a written questionnaire during their initial health inspection in July 2007. From a total of 1,000 conscripts, 953 male conscripts returned the questionnaire. The mean sum scores for confidence in the information given to biopreparedness authorities and the media on natural and bioterrorism-related outbreaks (range = 0-30) were 20.14 (SD = 7.79) and 20.12 (SD = 7.69), respectively. Mean sum scores for the respondents' confidence in the ability of the biopreparedness authorities to protect the public during natural and bioterrorism-related outbreaks (range 0-25) were 16.04 (SD = 5.78) and 16.17 (SD = 5.89). Most respondents indicated that during a natural outbreak, they would have confidence in information provided by a health care institution such as central hospitals and primary health care centers, whereas in the case of bioterrorism, the respondents indicated that they would have confidence in the defense forces and central hospitals.

  9. Inefficient procurement processes undermine access to medicines in the Western Cape Province of South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bvudzai P Magadzire

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Background. South Africa (SA has experienced several stock-outs of life-saving medicines for the treatment of major chronic infectious and non-communicable diseases in the public sector. Objective. To identify the causes of stock-outs and to illustrate how they undermine access to medicines (ATM in the Western Cape Province, SA. Methods. This qualitative study was conducted with a sample of over 70 key informants (frontline health workers, sub-structure and provincial health service managers. We employed the critical incident technique to identify significant occurrences in our context, the consequences of which impacted on access to medicines during a defined period. Stock-outs were identified as one such incident, and we explored when, where and why they occurred, in order to inform policy and practice. Results. Medicines procurement is a centralised function in SA. Health service managers unanimously agreed that stock-outs resulted from the following inefficiencies at the central level: (i delays in awarding of pharmaceutical tenders; (ii absence of contracts for certain medicines appearing on provincial code lists; and (iii suppliers’ inability to satisfy contractual agreements. The recurrence of stock-outs had implications at multiple levels: (i health facility operations; (ii the Chronic Dispensing Unit (CDU, which prepacks medicines for over 300 000 public sector patients; and (iii community-based medicines distribution systems, which deliver the CDU’s prepacked medicines to non-health facilities nearer to patient homes. For instance, stock-outs resulted in omission of certain medicines from CDU parcels that were delivered to health facilities. This increased workload and caused frustration for frontline health workers who were expected to dispense omitted medicines manually. According to frontline health workers, this translated into longer waiting times for patients and associated dissatisfaction. In some instances, patients were

  10. The idiosyncratic nature of confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navajas, Joaquin; Hindocha, Chandni; Foda, Hebah; Keramati, Mehdi; Latham, Peter E; Bahrami, Bahador

    2017-01-01

    Confidence is the ‘feeling of knowing’ that accompanies decision making. Bayesian theory proposes that confidence is a function solely of the perceived probability of being correct. Empirical research has suggested, however, that different individuals may perform different computations to estimate confidence from uncertain evidence. To test this hypothesis, we collected confidence reports in a task where subjects made categorical decisions about the mean of a sequence. We found that for most individuals, confidence did indeed reflect the perceived probability of being correct. However, in approximately half of them, confidence also reflected a different probabilistic quantity: the perceived uncertainty in the estimated variable. We found that the contribution of both quantities was stable over weeks. We also observed that the influence of the perceived probability of being correct was stable across two tasks, one perceptual and one cognitive. Overall, our findings provide a computational interpretation of individual differences in human confidence. PMID:29152591

  11. The idiosyncratic nature of confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navajas, Joaquin; Hindocha, Chandni; Foda, Hebah; Keramati, Mehdi; Latham, Peter E; Bahrami, Bahador

    2017-11-01

    Confidence is the 'feeling of knowing' that accompanies decision making. Bayesian theory proposes that confidence is a function solely of the perceived probability of being correct. Empirical research has suggested, however, that different individuals may perform different computations to estimate confidence from uncertain evidence. To test this hypothesis, we collected confidence reports in a task where subjects made categorical decisions about the mean of a sequence. We found that for most individuals, confidence did indeed reflect the perceived probability of being correct. However, in approximately half of them, confidence also reflected a different probabilistic quantity: the perceived uncertainty in the estimated variable. We found that the contribution of both quantities was stable over weeks. We also observed that the influence of the perceived probability of being correct was stable across two tasks, one perceptual and one cognitive. Overall, our findings provide a computational interpretation of individual differences in human confidence.

  12. When does familiarity promote versus undermine interpersonal attraction? A proposed integrative model from erstwhile adversaries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Frost, J.H.; Finkel, E.J.; Norton, M.I.; Ariely, D.; Caprariello, P.A.; Eastwick, P.W.

    2015-01-01

    This article began as an adversarial collaboration between two groups of researchers with competing views on a longstanding question: Does familiarity promote or undermine interpersonal attraction? As we explored our respective positions, it became clear that the limitations of our

  13. Neural basis of the undermining effect of monetary reward on intrinsic motivation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murayama, Kou; Matsumoto, Madoka; Izuma, Keise; Matsumoto, Kenji

    2010-01-01

    Contrary to the widespread belief that people are positively motivated by reward incentives, some studies have shown that performance-based extrinsic reward can actually undermine a person's intrinsic motivation to engage in a task. This “undermining effect” has timely practical implications, given the burgeoning of performance-based incentive systems in contemporary society. It also presents a theoretical challenge for economic and reinforcement learning theories, which tend to assume that monetary incentives monotonically increase motivation. Despite the practical and theoretical importance of this provocative phenomenon, however, little is known about its neural basis. Herein we induced the behavioral undermining effect using a newly developed task, and we tracked its neural correlates using functional MRI. Our results show that performance-based monetary reward indeed undermines intrinsic motivation, as assessed by the number of voluntary engagements in the task. We found that activity in the anterior striatum and the prefrontal areas decreased along with this behavioral undermining effect. These findings suggest that the corticobasal ganglia valuation system underlies the undermining effect through the integration of extrinsic reward value and intrinsic task value. PMID:21078974

  14. The militarization of anti-poaching: undermining long term goals?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Duffy, Rosaleen; St John, Freya A.V.; Büscher, Bram; Brockington, Dan

    2015-01-01

    Conservation is at a critical juncture because of the increase in poaching which threatens key species. Poaching is a major public concern, as indicated by the rises in rhino and elephant poaching, the United for Wildlife Initiative and the London Declaration, signed by 46 countries in February

  15. Are predatory journals undermining the credibility of science?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frandsen, Tove Faber

    2017-01-01

    as potential poor scientific standards journals. Citations to 124 potential predatory journals and poor scientific standards journals are looked up in Scopus and the citing authors analysed in regards to geographic location, publications and citations. The results show that the characteristics of the citing...

  16. Understanding Confidence Intervals With Visual Representations

    OpenAIRE

    Navruz, Bilgin; Delen, Erhan

    2014-01-01

    In the present paper, we showed how confidence intervals (CIs) are valuable and useful in research studies when they are used in the correct form with correct interpretations. The sixth edition of the APA (2010) Publication Manual strongly recommended reporting CIs in research studies, and it was described as “the best reporting strategy” (p. 34). Misconceptions and correct interpretations of CIs were presented from several textbooks. In addition, limitations of the null hypothesis statistica...

  17. Predicting confidence in flashbulb memories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Day, Martin V; Ross, Michael

    2014-01-01

    Years after a shocking news event many people confidently report details of their flashbulb memories (e.g., what they were doing). People's confidence is a defining feature of their flashbulb memories, but it is not well understood. We tested a model that predicted confidence in flashbulb memories. In particular we examined whether people's social bond with the target of a news event predicts confidence. At a first session shortly after the death of Michael Jackson participants reported their sense of attachment to Michael Jackson, as well as their flashbulb memories and emotional and other reactions to Jackson's death. At a second session approximately 18 months later they reported their flashbulb memories and confidence in those memories. Results supported our proposed model. A stronger sense of attachment to Jackson was related to reports of more initial surprise, emotion, and rehearsal during the first session. Participants' bond with Michael Jackson predicted their confidence but not the consistency of their flashbulb memories 18 months later. We also examined whether participants' initial forecasts regarding the persistence of their flashbulb memories predicted the durability of their memories. Participants' initial forecasts were more strongly related to participants' subsequent confidence than to the actual consistency of their memories.

  18. Are Debt Repayment Incentives Undermined by Foreign Aid?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjørnskov, Christian; Schröder, Philipp

    2013-01-01

    This paper investigates the effects of inflows of foreign aid on the debt repayment behavior of developing countries. The paper first delineates the overall incentives to committing to timely debt repayment in a war of attrition-type model. A set of panel estimates including 93 developing countries...... shows that foreign aid is strongly negatively associated with repayment incentives. The findings pertain to both total debt service and service on publically guaranteed debt. A set of conditional estimates suggest that the main findings generalize to the majority of developing countries...

  19. Are Debt Repayment Incentives Undermined by Foreign Aid?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjørnskov, Christian; Schröder, Philipp J.H.

    This paper investigates the effects of inflows of foreign aid on the debt repayment behaviour of developing countries. The paper first delineates the overall incentives to committing to timely repayment in a war of attrition-type model. A set of panel estimates including 93 developing countries...... shows that foreign aid is strongly negatively associated with repayment incentives. The findings pertain to both total debt service and service on publically guaranteed debt. Only countries that tend to vote predominantly with the US in the UN General Assembly are not significantly discouraged from...... servicing their debt by inflows of foreign aid....

  20. A retrospective analysis of the trend of retracted publications in the field of biomedical and life sciences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foo, Jong Yong Abdiel

    2011-09-01

    Among the many forms of research misconduct, publishing fraudulent data is considered to be serious where the confidence and validity of the research is detrimentally undermined. In this study, the trend of 303 retracted publications from 44 authors (with more than three retracted publications each) was analysed. The results showed that only 6.60% of the retracted publications were single-authored and the discovery of fraudulent publications had reduced from 52.24 months (those published before the year 2000) to 33.23 months (those published on the year 2000 and onwards). It appears that with the widely accessible public databases like PubMed, fraudulent publications can be detected more easily. The different approaches adopted by authors who had previous publications retracted are also discussed herein.

  1. Confidence in Alternative Dispute Resolution: Experience from Switzerland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christof Schwenkel

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Alternative Dispute Resolution plays a crucial role in the justice system of Switzerland. With the unified Swiss Code of Civil Procedure, it is required that each litigation session shall be preceded by an attempt at conciliation before a conciliation authority. However, there has been little research on conciliation authorities and the public's perception of the authorities. This paper looks at public confidence in conciliation authorities and provides results of a survey conducted with more than 3,400 participants. This study found that public confidence in Swiss conciliation authorities is generally high, exceeds the ratings for confidence in cantonal governments and parliaments, but is lower than confidence in courts.Since the institutional models of the conciliation authorities (meaning the organization of the authorities and the selection of the conciliators differ widely between the 26 Swiss cantons, the influence of the institutional models on public confidence is analyzed. Contrary to assumptions based on New Institutional-ism approaches, this study reports that the institutional models do not impact public confidence. Also, the relationship between a participation in an election of justices of the peace or conciliators and public confidence in these authorities is found to be at most very limited (and negative. Similar to common findings on courts, the results show that general contacts with conciliation authorities decrease public confidence in these institutions whereas a positive experience with a conciliation authority leads to more confidence.The Study was completed as part of the research project 'Basic Research into Court Management in Switzerland', supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF. Christof Schwenkel is a PhD student at the University of Lucerne and a research associate and project manager at Interface Policy Studies. A first version of this article was presented at the 2013 European Group for Public

  2. [Closure of cystic cavity-type bedsore by subcutaneous undermining dissection with continuous negative pressure drainage].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jiang; Guo, Xiao-Ping; Wang, Ke-Hua; Zhao, Dong-Hong; Han, Tong; Lang, Yu-Hong; Peng, Li-Jun

    2012-03-01

    To investigate the clinical effect of subcutaneous undermining dissection with continuous negative pressure drainage for the closure of cystic cavity-type bedsore. 12 patients with cystic cavity-type bedsore underwent surgical debridement and the wounds were closed after subcutaneous undermining dissection. The negative pressure drainage was put in the deep space. The healing process was observed. Completed healing was achieved in all the 12 cases. The skin wounds healed after 17-20 days and the deep spaces closed after 36-43 days. 12 cases were followed up for 1 year with no occurrence. It is an easy and effective method to treat cystic cavity -type bedsore by subcutaneous undermining dissection with continuous negative pressure drainage.

  3. Professional confidence: a concept analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holland, Kathlyn; Middleton, Lyn; Uys, Leana

    2012-03-01

    Professional confidence is a concept that is frequently used and or implied in occupational therapy literature, but often without specifying its meaning. Rodgers's Model of Concept Analysis was used to analyse the term "professional confidence". Published research obtained from a federated search in four health sciences databases was used to inform the concept analysis. The definitions, attributes, antecedents, and consequences of professional confidence as evidenced in the literature are discussed. Surrogate terms and related concepts are identified, and a model case of the concept provided. Based on the analysis, professional confidence can be described as a dynamic, maturing personal belief held by a professional or student. This includes an understanding of and a belief in the role, scope of practice, and significance of the profession, and is based on their capacity to competently fulfil these expectations, fostered through a process of affirming experiences. Developing and fostering professional confidence should be nurtured and valued to the same extent as professional competence, as the former underpins the latter, and both are linked to professional identity.

  4. Targeting Low Career Confidence Using the Career Planning Confidence Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    McAuliffe, Garrett; Jurgens, Jill C.; Pickering, Worth; Calliotte, James; Macera, Anthony; Zerwas, Steven

    2006-01-01

    The authors describe the development and validation of a test of career planning confidence that makes possible the targeting of specific problem issues in employment counseling. The scale, developed using a rational process and the authors' experience with clients, was tested for criterion-related validity against 2 other measures. The scale…

  5. The fallacy of placing confidence in confidence intervals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Morey, Richard D.; Hoekstra, Rink; Rouder, Jeffrey N.; Lee, Michael D.; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

    2016-01-01

    Interval estimates – estimates of parameters that include an allowance for sampling uncertainty – have long been touted as a key component of statistical analyses. There are several kinds of interval estimates, but the most popular are confidence intervals (CIs): intervals that contain the true

  6. The fallacy of placing confidence in confidence intervals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Morey, R.D.; Hoekstra, R.; Rouder, J.N.; Lee, M.D.; Wagenmakers, E.-J.

    Interval estimates – estimates of parameters that include an allowance for sampling uncertainty – have long been touted as a key component of statistical analyses. There are several kinds of interval estimates, but the most popular are confidence intervals (CIs): intervals that contain the true

  7. Saudis trust and confidence in information sources about chemical ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    To communicate information on chemical pollution health risks effectively, policy makers must know population source of information and the confidence level in ... sources of information about health risks posed by chemicals pollution, confidence in these information sources, responsibility for public health risk protection ...

  8. Stakeholder confidence and radioactive waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-01-01

    Any significant decisions regarding geologic disposal of radioactive waste will need a comprehensive public review and a thorough involvement of all relevant stakeholders, such as waste generators, waste management agencies, regulatory authorities, local communities and elected officials. The participation of non-technical stakeholders will become increasingly important as more countries move towards siting and implementing geologic repositories. The decision-making process and avenues for stakeholder involvement differ from country to country. It is important to identify similarities and differences, understand the key concerns of the various stakeholders, and develop means to interact effectively. The Nuclear Energy Agency recently set up a Forum on Stakeholder Confidence charged with distilling the lessons that can be learnt from national and international experience. These proceedings of the Forums first workshop held in August 2000 provide an overview of OECD countries' experience in the field of stakeholder confidence and radioactive waste disposal. (author)

  9. Robust misinterpretation of confidence intervals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoekstra, Rink; Morey, Richard; Rouder, Jeffrey N.; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

    2014-01-01

    Null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) is undoubtedly the most common inferential technique used to justify claims in the social sciences. However, even staunch defenders of NHST agree that its outcomes are often misinterpreted. Confidence intervals (CIs) have frequently been proposed as a more

  10. Deriving confidence in paleointensity estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paterson, Greig A.; Heslop, David; Muxworthy, Adrian R.

    2010-07-01

    Determining the strength of the ancient geomagnetic field (paleointensity) can be time consuming and can result in high data rejection rates. The current paleointensity database is therefore dominated by studies that contain only a small number of paleomagnetic samples (n). It is desirable to estimate how many samples are required to obtain a reliable estimate of the true paleointensity and the uncertainty associated with that estimate. Assuming that real paleointensity data are normally distributed, an assumption adopted by most workers when they employ the arithmetic mean and standard deviation to characterize their data, we can use distribution theory to address this question. Our calculations indicate that if we wish to have 95% confidence that an estimated mean falls within a ±10% interval about the true mean, as many as 24 paleomagnetic samples are required. This is an unfeasibly high number for typical paleointensity studies. Given that most paleointensity studies have small n, this requires that we have adequately defined confidence intervals around estimated means. We demonstrate that the estimated standard deviation is a poor method for defining confidence intervals for n levels, within-site consistency criteria must be depend on n. Defining such a criterion using the 95% confidence level results in the rejection of ˜56% of all currently available paleointensity data entries.

  11. Do Treatment Manuals Undermine Youth-Therapist Alliance in Community Clinical Practice?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langer, David A.; McLeod, Bryce D.; Weisz, John R.

    2011-01-01

    Objective: Some critics of treatment manuals have argued that their use may undermine the quality of the client-therapist alliance. This notion was tested in the context of youth psychotherapy delivered by therapists in community clinics. Method: Seventy-six clinically referred youths (57% female, age 8-15 years, 34% Caucasian) were randomly…

  12. Oxygenation and microcirculation during skin stretching in undermined and nonundermined skin

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Melis, Paris; Noorlander, Maril L.; van der Kleij, Ad J.; van Noorden, Cornelis J. F.; van der Horst, Chantal M. A. M.

    2003-01-01

    The aim of this experimental study was to assess the skin microcirculation of undermined and nonundermined wound edges closed with a skin-stretching device. In eight piglets, 9 X 9-cm wounds were created on both flanks by excision of the skin and the subcutaneous layer down to the muscular fascia,

  13. How Patronage Politics Undermines Parental Participation and Accountability: Community-Managed Schools in Honduras and Guatemala

    Science.gov (United States)

    Altschuler, Daniel

    2013-01-01

    This article shows how patronage politics affects a popular international education model: community-managed schools (CMS). Focusing on Honduras's CMS initiative, PROHECO (Programa Hondureno de Educacion Comunitaria), I demonstrate how patronage can undermine CMS accountability. Whereas supporters argue that CMS increases accountability, partisan…

  14. Do Economic Problems at Home Undermine Worker Safety Abroad? : A Panel Study, 1980-2009

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lim, S.; Prakash, A.

    Do economic downturns in the Global North undermine worker safety in the Global South? Literature suggests that bilateral trade linkages lead to the diffusion of “good” labor standards from importing countries of the Global North to exporting countries of the Global South. The crucial mechanism is

  15. Alan Greenspan, the confidence strategy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edwin Le Heron

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available To evaluate the Greenspan era, we nevertheless need to address three questions: Is his success due to talent or just luck? Does he have a system of monetary policy or is he himself the system? What will be his legacy? Greenspan was certainly lucky, but he was also clairvoyant. Above all, he has developed a profoundly original monetary policy. His confidence strategy is clearly opposed to the credibility strategy developed in central banks and the academic milieu after 1980, but also inflation targeting, which today constitutes the mainstream monetary policy regime. The question of his legacy seems more nuanced. However, Greenspan will remain 'for a considerable period of time' a highly heterodox and original central banker. His political vision, his perception of an uncertain world, his pragmatism and his openness form the structure of a powerful alternative system, the confidence strategy, which will leave its mark on the history of monetary policy.

  16. Confidence-Based Feature Acquisition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagstaff, Kiri L.; desJardins, Marie; MacGlashan, James

    2010-01-01

    Confidence-based Feature Acquisition (CFA) is a novel, supervised learning method for acquiring missing feature values when there is missing data at both training (learning) and test (deployment) time. To train a machine learning classifier, data is encoded with a series of input features describing each item. In some applications, the training data may have missing values for some of the features, which can be acquired at a given cost. A relevant JPL example is that of the Mars rover exploration in which the features are obtained from a variety of different instruments, with different power consumption and integration time costs. The challenge is to decide which features will lead to increased classification performance and are therefore worth acquiring (paying the cost). To solve this problem, CFA, which is made up of two algorithms (CFA-train and CFA-predict), has been designed to greedily minimize total acquisition cost (during training and testing) while aiming for a specific accuracy level (specified as a confidence threshold). With this method, it is assumed that there is a nonempty subset of features that are free; that is, every instance in the data set includes these features initially for zero cost. It is also assumed that the feature acquisition (FA) cost associated with each feature is known in advance, and that the FA cost for a given feature is the same for all instances. Finally, CFA requires that the base-level classifiers produce not only a classification, but also a confidence (or posterior probability).

  17. Undermining Anarchy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Swann, Thomas; Husted, Emil

    2017-01-01

    Drawing on concepts rooted in cybernetics and anarchist political theory, this article argues that the shift in Occupy Wall Street from being a physical protest camp in late 2011 to an online movement in 2012 coincided with a shift in social media activity. Analysis of Facebook activity suggests...

  18. Undermining 'data'

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Markham, Annette

    2013-01-01

    or the veracity of, but not the existence of. This article critically examines the concept of ‘data’ within larger questions of research method and frameworks for scientific inquiry. The current dominance of the term ‘data’ and ‘big data’ in discussions of scientific inquiry as well as everyday advertising...

  19. 78 FR 64413 - Proposed Waste Confidence Rule and Draft Generic Environmental Impact Statement

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-10-29

    ... Confidence Rule and Draft Generic Environmental Impact Statement AGENCY: Nuclear Regulatory Commission... rescheduled the Waste Confidence public meetings it initially planned to hold in San Luis Obispo and Carlsbad... appropriations. The Waste Confidence public meeting in Carlsbad will now be held on November 18, 2013. The Waste...

  20. Costing the invisible: A review of the evidence examining the links between body image, aspirations, education and workplace confidence

    OpenAIRE

    Halliwell, E.; Diedrichs, P. C.; Orbach, S.

    2014-01-01

    Throughout the world, girls and women are interested in their looks. What has been perceived as an enjoyable part of life is however imbued with negative economic and psychological costs which are rarely calculated. International studies confirm the disturbing trend that body dissatisfaction and the perception that one is too large (even if this is not the case) undermine adolescent girls’ academic achievement. It doesn’t lead to failure, but to a diminishing in confidence and hence in perfor...

  1. The Great Recession and confidence in homeownership

    OpenAIRE

    Anat Bracha; Julian Jamison

    2013-01-01

    Confidence in homeownership shifts for those who personally experienced real estate loss during the Great Recession. Older Americans are confident in the value of homeownership. Younger Americans are less confident.

  2. Workshop on confidence limits. Proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    James, F.; Lyons, L.; Perrin, Y.

    2000-01-01

    The First Workshop on Confidence Limits was held at CERN on 17-18 January 2000. It was devoted to the problem of setting confidence limits in difficult cases: number of observed events is small or zero, background is larger than signal, background not well known, and measurements near a physical boundary. Among the many examples in high-energy physics are searches for the Higgs, searches for neutrino oscillations, B s mixing, SUSY, compositeness, neutrino masses, and dark matter. Several different methods are on the market: the CL s methods used by the LEP Higgs searches; Bayesian methods; Feldman-Cousins and modifications thereof; empirical and combined methods. The Workshop generated considerable interest, and attendance was finally limited by the seating capacity of the CERN Council Chamber where all the sessions took place. These proceedings contain all the papers presented, as well as the full text of the discussions after each paper and of course the last session which was a discussion session. The list of participants and the 'required reading', which was expected to be part of the prior knowledge of all participants, are also included. (orig.)

  3. Different levels of undermining in face lift - Experience of 141 consecutive cases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Panettiere Pietro

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available CONTEXT: The most revolutionary concept in rhytidectomy is the role of Sub Muscular Aponeurotic System (SMAS, even if many alternative approaches have been proposed. The main aim of face lift is to bring back the time, preventing the "lifted-face" appearance. SETTINGS AND DESIGN: The authors present their personal experience with different levels of undermining, i.e. subperiosteal forehead lift, subcutaneous midface lift with SMAS plication and platysmal suspension, and discuss the anatomical and biomechanical elements of rhytidectomy. RESULTS: Optimal aesthetic results were achieved by repositioning the neck, face and forehead tissues in a global and harmonious fashion, without distorting face characteristics and disguising surgery trails as much as possible. CONCLUSIONS: Different levels of undermining can give good and stable aesthetic results minimizing the risks and preventing face distortion.

  4. Confidence scores for prediction models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gerds, Thomas Alexander; van de Wiel, MA

    2011-01-01

    In medical statistics, many alternative strategies are available for building a prediction model based on training data. Prediction models are routinely compared by means of their prediction performance in independent validation data. If only one data set is available for training and validation......, then rival strategies can still be compared based on repeated bootstraps of the same data. Often, however, the overall performance of rival strategies is similar and it is thus difficult to decide for one model. Here, we investigate the variability of the prediction models that results when the same...... to distinguish rival prediction models with similar prediction performances. Furthermore, on the subject level a confidence score may provide useful supplementary information for new patients who want to base a medical decision on predicted risk. The ideas are illustrated and discussed using data from cancer...

  5. Knowledge, Self Confidence and Courage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Selberg, Hanne; Steenberg Holtzmann, Jette; Hovedskov, Jette

    Knowledge, self confidence and courage – long lasting learning outcomes through simulation in a clinical context. Hanne Selberg1, Jette Hovedskov2, Jette Steenberg Holtzmann2 The significance and methodology of the researchThe study focuses on simulation alongside the clinical practice and linked....... Results The students identified their major learning outcomes as transfer of operational skills, experiencing self-efficacy and enhanced understanding of the patients' perspective.Involving simulated patients in the training of technical skills contributed to the development of the students' communication...... in a safe and appreciative learning environment.The project has been evaluated in a formative design using a triangulation of questionnaires, field observations, focus group interviews and document reviews. This allowed for a continuously adjustment to the clinical context and the needs of the students...

  6. A comparative evaluation of four restorative materials to support undermined occlusal enamel of permanent teeth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prabhakar A

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to test the support to undermined occlusal enamel provided by posterior restorative composite (FiltekTM P60, 3M Dental products USA, polyacid modified resin composite (F2000 compomer, 3M Dental products, USA., radiopaque silver alloy-glass ionomer cement (Miracle Mix. GC Corp, Tokyo, Japan and Glass Ionomer cement (Fuji IX GP. To test each material, 20 human permanent mandibular third molars were selected. The lingual cusps were removed and the dentin supporting the facial cusps was cut away, leaving a shell of enamel. Each group of prepared teeth was restored using the materials according to the manufacturer′s instructions. All the specimens were thermocycled (250 cycles, 6°C- 60°C, dwell time 30 seconds and then mounted on an acrylic base. Specimens were loaded evenly across the cusp tips at a crosshead speed of 5 mm /minute in Hounsfield universal testing machine until fracture occurred. Data obtained was analyzed using analysis of variance and Studentized- Newman- Keul′s range test. No significant differences were detected in the support provided by P-60, F 2000, Miracle Mix or Fuji IX GP groups. The support provided to undermined occlusal enamel by these materials was intermediate between no support and that provided by sound dentin. Without further development in dental material technology and evidence of its efficacy, restorative materials should not be relied upon to support undermined occlusal enamel to a level comparable to that provided by sound dentin.

  7. Undermining belief in false memories leads to less efficient problem-solving behaviour.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jianqin; Otgaar, Henry; Howe, Mark L; Smeets, Tom; Merckelbach, Harald; Nahouli, Zacharia

    2017-08-01

    Memories of events for which the belief in the occurrence of those events is undermined, but recollection is retained, are called nonbelieved memories (NBMs). The present experiments examined the effects of NBMs on subsequent problem-solving behaviour. In Experiment 1, we challenged participants' beliefs in their memories and examined whether NBMs affected subsequent solution rates on insight-based problems. True and false memories were elicited using the Deese/Roediger-McDermott (DRM) paradigm. Then participants' belief in true and false memories was challenged by telling them the item had not been presented. We found that when the challenge led to undermining belief in false memories, fewer problems were solved than when belief was not challenged. In Experiment 2, a similar procedure was used except that some participants solved the problems one week rather than immediately after the feedback. Again, our results showed that undermining belief in false memories resulted in lower problem solution rates. These findings suggest that for false memories, belief is an important agent in whether memories serve as effective primes for immediate and delayed problem-solving.

  8. Confidence in ASCI scientific simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ang, J.A.; Trucano, T.G. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Luginbuhl, D.R. [Dept. of Energy, Washington, DC (United States)

    1998-06-01

    The US Department of Energy`s (DOE) Accelerated Strategic Computing Initiative (ASCI) program calls for the development of high end computing and advanced application simulations as one component of a program to eliminate reliance upon nuclear testing in the US nuclear weapons program. This paper presents results from the ASCI program`s examination of needs for focused validation and verification (V and V). These V and V activities will ensure that 100 TeraOP-scale ASCI simulation code development projects apply the appropriate means to achieve high confidence in the use of simulations for stockpile assessment and certification. The authors begin with an examination of the roles for model development and validation in the traditional scientific method. The traditional view is that the scientific method has two foundations, experimental and theoretical. While the traditional scientific method does not acknowledge the role for computing and simulation, this examination establishes a foundation for the extension of the traditional processes to include verification and scientific software development that results in the notional framework known as Sargent`s Framework. This framework elucidates the relationships between the processes of scientific model development, computational model verification and simulation validation. This paper presents a discussion of the methodologies and practices that the ASCI program will use to establish confidence in large-scale scientific simulations. While the effort for a focused program in V and V is just getting started, the ASCI program has been underway for a couple of years. The authors discuss some V and V activities and preliminary results from the ALEGRA simulation code that is under development for ASCI. The breadth of physical phenomena and the advanced computational algorithms that are employed by ALEGRA make it a subject for V and V that should typify what is required for many ASCI simulations.

  9. Management Strategies Required for Preventing and Combating Corruption in Public Administration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sorin Adrian Ciupitu

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Corruption level is symptomatic of the economic, political and general social development and its manifestation is harmful to ethics and morals and undermines public confidence in the rule of law. In Romania we are witnessing a penetration of corruption in areas that should support the country’s economic development. Companies from more and more zones of activity are pushed into gear economy. The immediate effect of this situation is reflected in a vicious circle in which endemic corruption is leading to lower revenues and public investment and weakens the credibility of the rule of law. It also generates negative changes in the economic development through inefficient transactions, sometimes lacking rationality, altering capital accumulation and its productivity, government revenues and the quality of public infrastructure.

  10. Exact Soft Confidence-Weighted Learning

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Jialei; Zhao, Peilin; Hoi, Steven C. H.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a new Soft Confidence-Weighted (SCW) online learning scheme, which enables the conventional confidence-weighted learning method to handle non-separable cases. Unlike the previous confidence-weighted learning algorithms, the proposed soft confidence-weighted learning method enjoys all the four salient properties: (i) large margin training, (ii) confidence weighting, (iii) capability to handle non-separable data, and (iv) adaptive margin. Our experimental results show ...

  11. Confidence building in safety assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grundfelt, Bertil

    1999-01-01

    Future generations should be adequately protected from damage caused by the present disposal of radioactive waste. This presentation discusses the core of safety and performance assessment: The demonstration and building of confidence that the disposal system meets the safety requirements stipulated by society. The major difficulty is to deal with risks in the very long time perspective of the thousands of years during which the waste is hazardous. Concern about these problems has stimulated the development of the safety assessment discipline. The presentation concentrates on two of the elements of safety assessment: (1) Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, and (2) validation and review. Uncertainty is associated both with respect to what is the proper conceptual model and with respect to parameter values for a given model. A special kind of uncertainty derives from the variation of a property in space. Geostatistics is one approach to handling spatial variability. The simplest way of doing a sensitivity analysis is to offset the model parameters one by one and observe how the model output changes. The validity of the models and data used to make predictions is central to the credibility of safety assessments for radioactive waste repositories. There are several definitions of model validation. The presentation discusses it as a process and highlights some aspects of validation methodologies

  12. Men and talk about legal abortion in South Africa: equality, support and rights discourses undermining reproductive 'choice'.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macleod, Catriona Ida; Hansjee, Jateen

    2013-01-01

    Discursive constructions of abortion are embedded in the social and gendered power relations of a particular socio-historical space. As part of research on public discourses concerning abortion in South Africa where there has been a radical liberalisation of abortion legislation, we collected data from male group discussions about a vignette concerning abortion, and newspaper articles written by men about abortion. Our analysis revealed how discourses of equality, support and rights may be used by men to subtly undermine women's reproductive right to 'choose' an abortion. Within an Equal Partnership discourse, abortion, paired with the assumption of foetal personhood, was equated with violating an equal heterosexual partnership and a man's patriarchal duty to protect a child. A New Man discourse, which positions men as supportive of women, was paired with the assumption of men as rational and women as irrational in decision-making, to allow for the possibility of men dissuading women from terminating a pregnancy. A Rights discourse was invoked to suggest that abortion violates men's paternal rights.

  13. Confidence sets for asset correlations in portfolio credit risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Castro

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Asset correlations are of critical importance in quantifying portfolio credit risk and economic capitalin financial institutions. Estimation of asset correlation with rating transition data has focusedon the point estimation of the correlation without giving any consideration to the uncertaintyaround these point estimates. In this article we use Bayesian methods to estimate a dynamicfactor model for default risk using rating data (McNeil et al., 2005; McNeil and Wendin, 2007.Bayesian methods allow us to formally incorporate human judgement in the estimation of assetcorrelation, through the prior distribution and fully characterize a confidence set for the correlations.Results indicate: i a two factor model rather than the one factor model, as proposed bythe Basel II framework, better represents the historical default data. ii importance of unobservedfactors in this type of models is reinforced and point out that the levels of the implied asset correlationscritically depend on the latent state variable used to capture the dynamics of default,as well as other assumptions on the statistical model. iii the posterior distributions of the assetcorrelations show that the Basel recommended bounds, for this parameter, undermine the levelof systemic risk.

  14. Providing Extrinsic Reward for Test Performance Undermines Long-Term Memory Acquisition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuhbandner, Christof; Aslan, Alp; Emmerdinger, Kathrin; Murayama, Kou

    2016-01-01

    Based on numerous studies showing that testing studied material can improve long-term retention more than restudying the same material, it is often suggested that the number of tests in education should be increased to enhance knowledge acquisition. However, testing in real-life educational settings often entails a high degree of extrinsic motivation of learners due to the common practice of placing important consequences on the outcome of a test. Such an effect on the motivation of learners may undermine the beneficial effects of testing on long-term memory because it has been shown that extrinsic motivation can reduce the quality of learning. To examine this issue, participants learned foreign language vocabulary words, followed by an immediate test in which one-third of the words were tested and one-third restudied. To manipulate extrinsic motivation during immediate testing, participants received either monetary reward contingent on test performance or no reward. After 1 week, memory for all words was tested. In the immediate test, reward reduced correct recall and increased commission errors, indicating that reward reduced the number of items that can benefit from successful retrieval. The results in the delayed test revealed that reward additionally reduced the gain received from successful retrieval because memory for initially successfully retrieved words was lower in the reward condition. However, testing was still more effective than restudying under reward conditions because reward undermined long-term memory for concurrently restudied material as well. These findings indicate that providing performance-contingent reward in a test can undermine long-term knowledge acquisition.

  15. Confidence and psychosis: a neuro-computational account of contingency learning disruption by NMDA blockade.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vinckier, F; Gaillard, R; Palminteri, S; Rigoux, L; Salvador, A; Fornito, A; Adapa, R; Krebs, M O; Pessiglione, M; Fletcher, P C

    2016-07-01

    A state of pathological uncertainty about environmental regularities might represent a key step in the pathway to psychotic illness. Early psychosis can be investigated in healthy volunteers under ketamine, an NMDA receptor antagonist. Here, we explored the effects of ketamine on contingency learning using a placebo-controlled, double-blind, crossover design. During functional magnetic resonance imaging, participants performed an instrumental learning task, in which cue-outcome contingencies were probabilistic and reversed between blocks. Bayesian model comparison indicated that in such an unstable environment, reinforcement learning parameters are downregulated depending on confidence level, an adaptive mechanism that was specifically disrupted by ketamine administration. Drug effects were underpinned by altered neural activity in a fronto-parietal network, which reflected the confidence-based shift to exploitation of learned contingencies. Our findings suggest that an early characteristic of psychosis lies in a persistent doubt that undermines the stabilization of behavioral policy resulting in a failure to exploit regularities in the environment.

  16. High Confidence Software and Systems Research Needs

    Data.gov (United States)

    Networking and Information Technology Research and Development, Executive Office of the President — This White Paper presents a survey of high confidence software and systems research needs. It has been prepared by the High Confidence Software and Systems...

  17. A mathematical framework for statistical decision confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hangya, Balázs; Sanders, Joshua I.; Kepecs, Adam

    2017-01-01

    Decision confidence is a forecast about the probability that a decision will be correct. From a statistical perspective decision confidence can be defined as the Bayesian posterior probability that the chosen option is correct based on the evidence contributing to it. Here we used this formal definition as a starting point to develop a normative statistical framework for decision confidence. Our goal was to make general predictions that do not depend on the structure of the noise or a specific algorithm for estimating confidence. We analytically proved several interrelations between statistical decision confidence and observable decision measures, such as evidence discriminability, choice and accuracy. These interrelationships specify necessary signatures of decision confidence in terms of externally quantifiable variables that can be empirically tested. Our results lay the foundations for a mathematically rigorous treatment of decision confidence that can lead to a common framework for understanding confidence across different research domains, from human and animal behavior to neural representations. PMID:27391683

  18. Action-specific disruption of perceptual confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleming, Stephen M; Maniscalco, Brian; Ko, Yoshiaki; Amendi, Namema; Ro, Tony; Lau, Hakwan

    2015-01-01

    Theoretical models of perception assume that confidence is related to the quality or strength of sensory processing. Counter to this intuitive view, we showed in the present research that the motor system also contributes to judgments of perceptual confidence. In two experiments, we used transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) to manipulate response-specific representations in the premotor cortex, selectively disrupting postresponse confidence in visual discrimination judgments. Specifically, stimulation of the motor representation associated with the unchosen response reduced confidence in correct responses, thereby reducing metacognitive capacity without changing visual discrimination performance. Effects of TMS on confidence were observed when stimulation was applied both before and after the response occurred, which suggests that confidence depends on late-stage metacognitive processes. These results place constraints on models of perceptual confidence and metacognition by revealing that action-specific information in the premotor cortex contributes to perceptual confidence. © The Author(s) 2014.

  19. Association Between Confidence in Smiling and Esthetic Characteristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muniz, Francisco Wilker Mustafa Gomes; Cavalcante, Denise Juaçaba; Moreira, Maria Mônica Studart Mendes; Rodrigues, Lidiany Karla Azevedo; de Oliveira Fernandes, Carlos Augusto; de Almeida, Paulo César; de Sousa Carvalho, Rosimary

    2017-04-01

    This study aimed to analyze which facial, gingival and dental characteristics are associated with confidence in smiling among 75 subjects seeking treatment in a northern Brazilian public dental university. Clinical examinations and three standardized photographs of each subject were taken by one trained examiner. In addition, a questionnaire was applied to assess confidence in smiling. The subjects were dichotomized into two groups, non-confident (n = 36) and confident (n = 39) in smiling. Chi-square/Fischer exact test were used to associate the facial, gingival and dental characteristics between groups. The subjects that reported to be non-confident in smiling were statistically associated with smile type (p = 0.030) and wrongly positioned teeth (p = 0.047). On the other hand, gender (p = 0.491), marital status (p = 0.217), gum pigmentation (p = 0.930), midline (p = 0.176), volume of the upper (p = 0.380), and lower (p = 0.615) lips were not associated with self-reported confidence in smiling. In patients seeking dental treatment in a public dental university, non-confidence in smiling was associated only with some oral and intraoral characteristics and not with demographic characteristics. This study showed that only smile type and wrongly positioned teeth were statistically associated with confidence in smiling. Dentists should pay attention to those intraoral characteristics, but the clinical decision making should always include the patients' perception. (J Esthet Restor Dent 29:E56-E66, 2017). © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  20. 75 FR 81037 - Waste Confidence Decision Update

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-23

    ... NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION 10 CFR Part 51 [NRC-2008-0482] Waste Confidence Decision Update AGENCY: Nuclear Regulatory Commission. ACTION: Update and final revision of Waste Confidence Decision. SUMMARY: The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC or Commission) is updating its Waste Confidence...

  1. Self Confidence Spillovers and Motivated Beliefs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Banerjee, Ritwik; Gupta, Nabanita Datta; Villeval, Marie Claire

    that success when competing in a task increases the performers’ self-confidence and competitiveness in the subsequent task. We also find that such spillovers affect the self-confidence of low-status individuals more than that of high-status individuals. Receiving good news under Affirmative Action, however......, boosts confidence across tasks regardless of the caste status....

  2. 78 FR 57538 - Proposed Waste Confidence Rule and Draft Generic Environmental Impact Statement

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-19

    ...-2012-0246] RIN 3150-AJ20 Proposed Waste Confidence Rule and Draft Generic Environmental Impact... disposal (proposed Waste Confidence rule). In addition, the NRC will receive public comment on its forthcoming draft generic environmental impact statement (DGEIS), NUREG-2157, ``Waste Confidence Generic...

  3. 78 FR 54789 - Proposed Waste Confidence Rule and Draft Generic Environmental Impact Statement

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-06

    ...-2012-0246] RIN 3150-AJ20 Proposed Waste Confidence Rule and Draft Generic Environmental Impact... disposal (proposed Waste Confidence rule). In addition, the NRC will receive public comment on its forthcoming draft generic environmental impact statement (DGEIS), NUREG-2157, ``Waste Confidence Generic...

  4. 78 FR 64412 - Proposed Waste Confidence Rule and Draft Generic Environmental Impact Statement

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-10-29

    ... Confidence Rule and Draft Generic Environmental Impact Statement AGENCY: Nuclear Regulatory Commission... rescheduled to November 12 the Waste Confidence public meeting it initially planned to hold in Oak Brook... reactor's licensed life for operation and prior to ultimate disposal (the proposed Waste Confidence rule...

  5. Public Confidence and the U.S. Military

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-16

    speech.aspx?id=1672 (accessed January 6, 2012). 24 39 Baldor, Lolita C. “Panetta Faces lawmakers on Defense Cuts,” October 13, 2011 http...20strategy %20is%20based%20on% 20a%20false%20premise%20»%20Center%20For%20Defense%20Studies.webarchive (accessed 5 March, 2012). 48 Lolita Baldor, “Panetta Faces lawmakers on Defense Cuts”, 1.

  6. The compassionate sexist? How benevolent sexism promotes and undermines gender equality in the workplace.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hideg, Ivona; Ferris, D Lance

    2016-11-01

    Although sexist attitudes are generally thought to undermine support for employment equity (EE) policies supporting women, we argue that the effects of benevolent sexism are more complex. Across 4 studies, we extend the ambivalent sexism literature by examining both the positive and the negative effects benevolent sexism has for the support of gender-based EE policies. On the positive side, we show that individuals who endorse benevolent sexist attitudes on trait measures of sexism (Study 1) and individuals primed with benevolent sexist attitudes (Study 2) are more likely to support an EE policy, and that this effect is mediated by feelings of compassion. On the negative side, we find that this support extends only to EE policies that promote the hiring of women in feminine, and not in masculine, positions (Study 3 and 4). Thus, while benevolent sexism may appear to promote gender equality, it subtly undermines it by contributing to occupational gender segregation and leading to inaction in promoting women in positions in which they are underrepresented (i.e., masculine positions). (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  7. Will the introduction of non-invasive prenatal testing for Down's syndrome undermine informed choice?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silcock, Caroline; Liao, Lih-Mei; Hill, Melissa; Chitty, Lyn S

    2015-10-01

    To investigate whether the introduction of non-invasive pre-natal testing for Down's syndrome (DS) has the potential to undermine informed choice. Three hundred and ninety-three health professionals; 523 pregnant women. A cross-sectional questionnaire study across nine maternity units and three conferences in the UK designed to assess opinions regarding test delivery and how information should be communicated to women when offered Down's syndrome screening (DSS) or diagnosis using invasive (IDT) or non-invasive testing (NIPT). Both pregnant women and health professionals in the NIPT and DSS groups were less likely than the IDT group to consider that testing should take place at a return visit or that obtaining written consent was necessary, and more likely to think testing should be carried out routinely. Compared to health professionals, pregnant women expressed a stronger preference for testing to occur on the same day as pre-test counselling (P = 0.000) and for invasive testing to be offered routinely (P = 0.000). They were also more likely to indicate written consent as necessary for DSS (P = 0.000) and NIPT (P test types. These differences suggest that informed choice may be undermined with the introduction of NIPT for DS into clinical practice. To maintain high standards of care, effective professional training programmes and practice guidelines are needed which prioritize informed consent and take into account the views and needs of service users. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Financial Motivation Undermines Maintenance in an Intensive Diet and Activity Intervention

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arlen C. Moller

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Financial incentives are widely used in health behavior interventions. However, self-determination theory posits that emphasizing financial incentives can have negative consequences if experienced as controlling. Feeling controlled into performing a behavior tends to reduce enjoyment and undermine maintenance after financial contingencies are removed (the undermining effect. We assessed participants’ context-specific financial motivation to participate in the Make Better Choices trial—a trial testing four different strategies for improving four health risk behaviors: low fruit and vegetable intake, high saturated fat intake, low physical activity, and high sedentary screen time. The primary outcome was overall healthy lifestyle change; weight loss was a secondary outcome. Financial incentives were contingent upon meeting behavior goals for 3 weeks and became contingent upon merely providing data during the 4.5-month maintenance period. Financial motivation for participation was assessed at baseline using a 7-item scale (=.97. Across conditions, a main effect of financial motivation predicted a steeper rate of weight regained during the maintenance period, (165=2.15, =.04. Furthermore, financial motivation and gender interacted significantly in predicting maintenance of healthy diet and activity changes, (160=2.42, =.016, such that financial motivation had a more deleterious influence among men. Implications for practice and future research on incentivized lifestyle and weight interventions are discussed.

  9. Seven Dirty Words: Hot-Button Language That Undermines Interprofessional Education and Practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cahn, Peter S

    2017-08-01

    An increasingly common goal of health professions education is preparing learners to collaborate with the full range of members on a health care team. While curriculum developers have identified many logistical and conceptual barriers to interprofessional education, one overlooked factor threatens to undermine interprofessional education and practice: language. Language reveals the mental metaphors governing thoughts and actions. The words that faculty members and health care providers use send messages that can-consciously or not-undermine explicit lessons about valuing each member of the care team. Too often, word choices make visible hierarchies in health care that may contradict overt messages about collaboration.In this Perspective, the author draws on his experience as an outsider coming to academic medicine, noticing that certain words triggered negative responses in colleagues from different professions. He reflects on some of the most charged (or hot-button) words commonly heard in health care and educational settings and suggests possible alternatives that have similar denotations but that also have more collaborative connotations. By exploring seven of these dirty words, the author intends to raise awareness about the unintended effects of word choices. Changing exclusionary language may help promote the adoption of new metaphors for professional relationships that will more easily facilitate interprofessional collaboration and reinforce the formal messages about collaborative practice aimed at learners.

  10. Stereotype threat engenders neural attentional bias toward negative feedback to undermine performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forbes, Chad E; Leitner, Jordan B

    2014-10-01

    Stereotype threat, a situational pressure individuals experience when they fear confirming a negative group stereotype, engenders a cascade of physiological stress responses, negative appraisals, and performance monitoring processes that tax working memory resources necessary for optimal performance. Less is known, however, about how stereotype threat biases attentional processing in response to performance feedback, and how such attentional biases may undermine performance. Women received feedback on math problems in stereotype threatening compared to stereotype-neutral contexts while continuous EEG activity was recorded. Findings revealed that stereotype threatened women elicited larger midline P100 ERPs, increased phase locking between anterior cingulate cortex and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (two regions integral for attentional processes), and increased power in left fusiform gyrus in response to negative feedback compared to positive feedback and women in stereotype-neutral contexts. Increased power in left fusiform gyrus in response to negative feedback predicted underperformance on the math task among stereotype threatened women only. Women in stereotype-neutral contexts exhibited the opposite trend. Findings suggest that in stereotype threatening contexts, neural networks integral for attention and working memory are biased toward negative, stereotype confirming feedback at very early speeds of information processing. This bias, in turn, plays a role in undermining performance. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Committee Opinion No. 683: Behavior That Undermines a Culture of Safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    A key element of an organizational safety culture is maintaining an environment of professionalism that encourages communication and promotes high-quality care. Behavior that undermines a culture of safety, including disruptive or intimidating behavior, has a negative effect on the quality and safety of patient care. Intimidating behavior and disruptive behavior are unprofessional and should not be tolerated. Confronting disruptive individuals is difficult. Co-workers often are reluctant to report disruptive behavior because of fear of retaliation and the stigma associated with "blowing the whistle" on a colleague. Additionally, negative behavior of revenue-generating physicians may be overlooked because of concern about the perceived consequences of confronting them. The Joint Commission requires that hospitals establish a code of conduct that "defines acceptable behavior and behavior that undermines a culture of safety." Clear standards of behavior that acknowledge the consequences of disruptive and intimidating behavior must be established and communicated. Institutions and practices should develop a multifaceted approach to address disruptive behavior. Confidential reporting systems and assistance programs for physicians who exhibit disruptive behavior should be established. A concerted effort should be made within each organization to educate staff (ie, medical, nursing, and ancillary staff) about the potential negative effects of disruptive and inappropriate behavior. A clearly delineated hospital-wide policy and procedure relating to disruptive behavior should be developed and enforced by hospital administration. To preserve professional standing, physicians should understand how to respond to and mitigate the effect of complaints or reports.

  12. Losing confidence in medicine in an era of medical expansion?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Hui

    2015-07-01

    Has the expansion of the medical field inspired more or less confidence in medicine among the American public? This study investigates how confidence in medicine has changed over the past three decades, whether this trend is uniform across social groups and which aspects of medicine are most affected. Data are from repeated cross-sectional U.S. General Social Surveys spanning the years 1973-2008, including the 2002 Doctors and Patients Module and the 1998 Pressing Issues in Health and Medical Care Module. Americans' confidence in medicine has declined continuously over the past three decades, and the extent of this decline did not vary by gender, age group, cohort, or income level. Analysis of differences across socio-demographic groups suggests that confidence in medicine is related to trust in doctors' ethics but different from obedience to doctors' authority. Therefore, the downward trend in confidence in medicine may suggest a decline in public trust in doctors' ethics, but not necessarily a decline in obedience to doctors' authority. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Regional Competition for Confidence: Features of Formation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irina Svyatoslavovna Vazhenina

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The increase in economic independence of the regions inevitably leads to an increase in the quality requirements of the regional economic policy. The key to successful regional policy, both during its development and implementation, is the understanding of the necessity of gaining confidence (at all levels, and the inevitable participation in the competition for confidence. The importance of confidence in the region is determined by its value as a competitive advantage in the struggle for partners, resources and tourists, and attracting investments. In today’s environment the focus of governments, regions and companies on long-term cooperation is clearly expressed, which is impossible without a high level of confidence between partners. Therefore, the most important competitive advantages of territories are intangible assets such as an attractive image and a good reputation, which builds up confidence of the population and partners. The higher the confidence in the region is, the broader is the range of potential partners, the larger is the planning horizon of long-term concerted action, the better are the chances of acquiring investment, the higher is the level of competitive immunity of the territories. The article defines competition for confidence as purposeful behavior of a market participant in economic environment, aimed at acquiring specific intangible competitive advantage – the confidence of the largest possible number of other market actors. The article also highlights the specifics of confidence as a competitive goal, presents factors contributing to the destruction of confidence, proposes a strategy to fight for confidence as a program of four steps, considers the factors which integrate regional confidence and offers several recommendations for the establishment of effective regional competition for confidence

  14. Authorization of Animal Experiments Is Based on Confidence Rather than Evidence of Scientific Rigor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nathues, Christina; Würbel, Hanno

    2016-01-01

    animal experiments are lacking important information about experimental conduct that determines the scientific validity of the findings, which may be critical for the weight attributed to the benefit of the research in the harm–benefit analysis. Similar to manuscripts getting accepted for publication despite poor reporting of measures against bias, applications for animal experiments may often be approved based on implicit confidence rather than explicit evidence of scientific rigor. Our findings shed serious doubt on the current authorization procedure for animal experiments, as well as the peer-review process for scientific publications, which in the long run may undermine the credibility of research. Developing existing authorization procedures that are already in place in many countries towards a preregistration system for animal research is one promising way to reform the system. This would not only benefit the scientific validity of findings from animal experiments but also help to avoid unnecessary harm to animals for inconclusive research. PMID:27911892

  15. Confidence building: what gives confidence to the various categories of stake holders?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    During the fuelling of the first Olkiluoto Nuclear Power Plant Unit, discussions about sending spent fuel abroad for reprocessing were very topical and the people of Eurajoki got the impression that spent fuel will not be finally disposed of at Eurajoki. This principle was even written down in the long term strategy documents of Eurajoki and it remained there even for a long time after the government of Finland in 1983 had requested TVO to prepare a time schedule and plans for the final disposal of spent fuel in Finland. It did state that the municipality shall act so that high-active spent fuel will not be disposed of in the Eurajoki area. While TVO accordingly investigated the national solution for final disposal, spent nuclear fuel from the Loviisa nuclear power plant was still returned to Soviet Union. This inspired to a certain extent lack of confidence within the inhabitants of Eurajoki and quite many of them had the feeling that TVO had broken its promise. So this topic has been discussed at Eurajoki generally and in the municipal council especially both in connection with final disposal plans and also in connection with operating licence renewals, power upgrade procedures and Decision in Principle Applications during almost 20 years. Good for confidence building is that the information policy of the utility has been very open, which has also been requested by the safety authority STUK. All incidents in the plants have been reported without delay to authorities and also given to publicity even when not safety related. While operating results of both Olkiluoto units have been of internationally top class this has contributed to the formation of confidence. Routines for dialogue between municipality and utilities have been created in order to guarantee continuity. Thus several types of liaison groups were formed. (author)

  16. Costa Rica's 'White legend': how racial narratives undermine its health care system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campo-Engelstein, Lisa; Meagher, Karen

    2011-08-01

    A dominant cultural narrative within Costa Rica describes Costa Ricans not only as different from their Central American neighbours, but it also exalts them as better: specifically, as more white, peaceful, egalitarian and democratic. This notion of Costa Rican exceptionalism played a key role in the creation of their health care system, which is based on the four core principles of equity, universality, solidarity and obligation. While the political justification and design of the current health care system does, in part, realize this ideal, we argue that the narrative of Costa Rican exceptionalism prevents the full actualization of these principles by marginalizing and excluding disadvantaged groups, especially indigenous and black citizens and the substantial Nicaraguan minority. We offer three suggestions to mitigate the self-undermining effects of the dominant national narrative: 1) encouragement and development of counternarratives; 2) support of an emerging field of Costa Rican bioethics; and 3) decoupling health and national successes. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  17. Engineering Barriers to Infection by Undermining Pathogen Effector Function or by Gaining Effector Recognition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahmed, Ali Abdurehim; Mclellan, Hazel; Aguilar, Geziel Barbosa

    2016-01-01

    This chapter reviews potential disease control strategies by employing the current understanding of Pathogen-Associated Molecular Patterns (PAMPs) and their receptors, as well as effectors and their targets. It discusses how effectoromics, i.e. surveying which, and to what level, effectors......-LRR transcript regulation that involves small RNAs is currently emerging and could potentially be explored in the search for more durable and/or broad-spectrum pathogen resistance. The chapter suggests ways that can be used to undermine effector function and be exploited to engineer resistant plants...... in the future. It further illustrates how a mechanistic understanding of a pathogen's stealth strategies may allow new approaches to engineer resistance....

  18. Financial motivation undermines potential enjoyment in an intensive diet and activity intervention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moller, Arlen C.; Buscemi, Joanna; McFadden, H. Gene; Hedeker, Donald; Spring, Bonnie

    2013-01-01

    The use of material incentives in healthy lifestyle interventions is becoming widespread. However, self-determination theory (SDT) posits that when material incentives are perceived as controlling, they undermine intrinsic motivation. We analyzed data from the Make Better Choices trial—a trial testing strategies for improving four risk behaviors: low fruit–vegetable intake, high saturated fat intake, low physical activity, and high sedentary activity. At baseline, participants reported the degree to which financial incentives were an important motivator (financial motivation); self-reported enjoyment of each behavior was assessed before and after the 3-week incentivization phase. Consistent with SDT, after controlling for general motivation and group assignment, lower financial motivation predicted more adaptive changes in enjoyment. Whereas participants low in financial motivation experienced adaptive changes, adaptive changes were suppressed among those high in financial motivation. PMID:24142187

  19. Do Reputation Systems Undermine Trust? Divergent Effects of Enforcement Type on Generalized Trust and Trustworthiness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuwabara, Ko

    2015-03-01

    Research shows that enforcing cooperation using contracts or tangible sanctions can backfire, undermining people's intrinsic motivation to cooperate: when the enforcement is removed, people are less trusting or trustworthy than when there is no enforcement to begin with. The author examines whether reputation systems have similar consequences for generalized trust and trustworthiness. Using a web-based experiment simulating online market transactions (studies 1 and 2), he shows that reputation systems can reinforce generalized trust and trustworthiness, unlike contractual enforcement or relational enforcement based on repeated interactions. In a survey experiment (study 3), he finds that recalling their eBay feedback scores made participants more trusting and trustworthy. These results are predicated on the diffuse nature of reputational enforcement to reinforce perceptions of trust and trustworthiness. These results have implications for understanding how different forms of governance affect generalized trust and trustworthiness.

  20. Stereotype threat strengthens automatic recall and undermines controlled processes in older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazerolle, Marie; Régner, Isabelle; Morisset, Pauline; Rigalleau, François; Huguet, Pascal

    2012-07-01

    The threat of being judged stereotypically (stereotype threat) may impair memory performance in older adults, thereby producing inflated age differences in memory tasks. However, the underlying mechanisms of stereotype threat in older adults or other stigmatized groups remain poorly understood. Here, we offer evidence that stereotype threat consumes working memory resources in older adults. More important, using a process-dissociation procedure, we found, for the first time, that stereotype threat undermines the controlled use of memory and simultaneously intensifies automatic response tendencies. These findings indicate that competing models of stereotype threat are actually compatible and offer further reasons for researchers and practitioners to pay special attention to age-related stereotypes during standardized neuropsychological testing.

  1. Unseen disadvantage: how American universities' focus on independence undermines the academic performance of first-generation college students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephens, Nicole M; Fryberg, Stephanie A; Markus, Hazel Rose; Johnson, Camille S; Covarrubias, Rebecca

    2012-06-01

    American universities increasingly admit first-generation college students whose parents do not have 4-year degrees. Once admitted, these students tend to struggle academically, compared with continuing-generation students--students who have at least 1 parent with a 4-year degree. We propose a cultural mismatch theory that identifies 1 important source of this social class achievement gap. Four studies test the hypothesis that first-generation students underperform because interdependent norms from their mostly working-class backgrounds constitute a mismatch with middle-class independent norms prevalent in universities. First, assessing university cultural norms, surveys of university administrators revealed that American universities focus primarily on norms of independence. Second, identifying the hypothesized cultural mismatch, a longitudinal survey revealed that universities' focus on independence does not match first-generation students' relatively interdependent motives for attending college and that this cultural mismatch is associated with lower grades. Finally, 2 experiments at both private and public universities created a match or mismatch for first-generation students and examined the performance consequences. Together these studies revealed that representing the university culture in terms of independence (i.e., paving one's own paths) rendered academic tasks difficult and, thereby, undermined first-generation students' performance. Conversely, representing the university culture in terms of interdependence (i.e., being part of a community) reduced this sense of difficulty and eliminated the performance gap without adverse consequences for continuing-generation students. These studies address the urgent need to recognize cultural obstacles that contribute to the social class achievement gap and to develop interventions to address them. 2012 APA, all rights reserved

  2. Can media images of obese people undermine health messages? An experimental study of visual representation and risk perception.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juszczyk, Dorota; Gillison, Fiona B; Dean, Steven

    2014-12-01

    Images depicting morbidly obese models [i.e. body mass index (BMI) >40] often accompany media articles about the health risks of being overweight (i.e. BMI 25-30). Little is known about the effect of this mismatch on people's understanding of risk, and perceptions of message relevance. In total, 563 participants (291 overweight/obese and 272 healthy weight) were randomly allocated to read a health message about the risk of heart disease posed by being overweight, presented alongside (i) a photo of an overweight model, (ii) a morbidly obese model or (iii) no photo. Between-group differences in the primary outcomes of message relevance, and the body size perceived to be 'at risk', were assessed, and the potential moderating effects of motivation, weight concern and existing risk knowledge explored. Overweight and obese participants in the exaggerated (morbidly obese) image condition interpreted health risks to relate to a larger body size than those who saw no image (F(2, 290) = 4.06, P = 0.02). There was no experimental effect on perceived personal relevance (F(2, 290) = 0.25, P = 0.38). No significant moderation effects were detected, and there was no effect of study condition in healthy weight participants for either outcome. The findings suggest that the use of morbidly obese models in messages regarding the health risks of being overweight may undermine the impact of these messages among those who they most aim to reach; the reader may perceive a reduced risk of being 'only' overweight, and that a higher weight is needed for the negative effects of excess weight to occur. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

  3. Feature Selection Based on Confidence Machine

    OpenAIRE

    Liu, Chang; Xu, Yi

    2014-01-01

    In machine learning and pattern recognition, feature selection has been a hot topic in the literature. Unsupervised feature selection is challenging due to the loss of labels which would supply the related information.How to define an appropriate metric is the key for feature selection. We propose a filter method for unsupervised feature selection which is based on the Confidence Machine. Confidence Machine offers an estimation of confidence on a feature'reliability. In this paper, we provide...

  4. Confidence Intervals: From tests of statistical significance to confidence intervals, range hypotheses and substantial effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dominic Beaulieu-Prévost

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available For the last 50 years of research in quantitative social sciences, the empirical evaluation of scientific hypotheses has been based on the rejection or not of the null hypothesis. However, more than 300 articles demonstrated that this method was problematic. In summary, null hypothesis testing (NHT is unfalsifiable, its results depend directly on sample size and the null hypothesis is both improbable and not plausible. Consequently, alternatives to NHT such as confidence intervals (CI and measures of effect size are starting to be used in scientific publications. The purpose of this article is, first, to provide the conceptual tools necessary to implement an approach based on confidence intervals, and second, to briefly demonstrate why such an approach is an interesting alternative to an approach based on NHT. As demonstrated in the article, the proposed CI approach avoids most problems related to a NHT approach and can often improve the scientific and contextual relevance of the statistical interpretations by testing range hypotheses instead of a point hypothesis and by defining the minimal value of a substantial effect. The main advantage of such a CI approach is that it replaces the notion of statistical power by an easily interpretable three-value logic (probable presence of a substantial effect, probable absence of a substantial effect and probabilistic undetermination. The demonstration includes a complete example.

  5. A model for developing disability confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindsay, Sally; Cancelliere, Sara

    2017-05-15

    Many clinicians, educators, and employers lack disability confidence which can affect their interactions with, and inclusion of people with disabilities. Our objective was to explore how disability confidence developed among youth who volunteered with children who have a disability. We conducted 30 in-depth interviews (16 without a disability, 14 with disabilities), with youth aged 15-25. We analyzed our data using an interpretive, qualitative, thematic approach. We identified four main themes that led to the progression of disability confidence including: (1) "disability discomfort," referring to lacking knowledge about disability and experiencing unease around people with disabilities; (2) "reaching beyond comfort zone" where participants increased their understanding of disability and became sensitized to difference; (3) "broadened perspectives" where youth gained exposure to people with disabilities and challenged common misperceptions and stereotypes; and (4) "disability confidence" which includes having knowledge of people with disabilities, inclusive, and positive attitudes towards them. Volunteering is one way that can help to develop disability confidence. Youth with and without disabilities both reported a similar process of developing disability confidence; however, there were nuances between the two groups. Implications for Rehabilitation The development of disability confidence is important for enhancing the social inclusion of people with disabilities. Volunteering with people who have a disability, or a disability different from their own, can help to develop disability confidence which involves positive attitudes, empathy, and appropriate communication skills. Clinicians, educators, and employers should consider promoting working with disabled people through such avenues as volunteering or service learning to gain disability confidence.

  6. Financial Literacy, Confidence and Financial Advice Seeking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kramer, Marc M.

    2016-01-01

    We find that people with higher confidence in their own financial literacy are less likely to seek financial advice, but no relation between objective measures of literacy and advice seeking. The negative association between confidence and advice seeking is more pronounced among wealthy households.

  7. Confidence Interval Approximation For Treatment Variance In ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In a random effects model with a single factor, variation is partitioned into two as residual error variance and treatment variance. While a confidence interval can be imposed on the residual error variance, it is not possible to construct an exact confidence interval for the treatment variance. This is because the treatment ...

  8. Confidence rating of marine eutrophication assessments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Murray, Ciarán; Andersen, Jesper Harbo; Kaartokallio, Hermanni

    2011-01-01

    This report presents the development of a methodology for assessing confidence in eutrophication status classifications. The method can be considered as a secondary assessment, supporting the primary assessment of eutrophication status. The confidence assessment is based on a transparent scoring ...... of the marine environment....

  9. Interpretation of Confidence Interval Facing the Conflict

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrade, Luisa; Fernández, Felipe

    2016-01-01

    As literature has reported, it is usual that university students in statistics courses, and even statistics teachers, interpret the confidence level associated with a confidence interval as the probability that the parameter value will be between the lower and upper interval limits. To confront this misconception, class activities have been…

  10. Examining Response Confidence in Multiple Text Tasks

    Science.gov (United States)

    List, Alexandra; Alexander, Patricia A.

    2015-01-01

    Students' confidence in their responses to a multiple text-processing task and their justifications for those confidence ratings were investigated. Specifically, 215 undergraduates responded to two academic questions, differing by type (i.e., discrete and open-ended) and by domain (i.e., developmental psychology and astrophysics), using a digital…

  11. Confidence and Competence with Mathematical Procedures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, Colin

    2016-01-01

    Confidence assessment (CA), in which students state alongside each of their answers a confidence level expressing how certain they are, has been employed successfully within higher education. However, it has not been widely explored with school pupils. This study examined how school mathematics pupils (N?=?345) in five different secondary schools…

  12. Hypercorrection of High Confidence Errors in Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metcalfe, Janet; Finn, Bridgid

    2012-01-01

    Three experiments investigated whether the hypercorrection effect--the finding that errors committed with high confidence are easier, rather than more difficult, to correct than are errors committed with low confidence--occurs in grade school children as it does in young adults. All three experiments showed that Grade 3-6 children hypercorrected…

  13. Building Scientific Confidence in the Development and ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Building Scientific Confidence in the Development and Evaluation of Read-Across Using Tox21 Approaches Slide presentation at GlobalChem conference and workshop in Washington, DC on Case Study on Building Scientific Confidence in the Development and Evaluation of Read-Across Using Tox21 Approaches

  14. Consumer confidence or the business cycle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Stig Vinther; Nørholm, Henrik; Rangvid, Jesper

    2014-01-01

    Answer: The business cycle. We show that consumer confidence and the output gap both excess returns on stocks in many European countries: When the output gap is positive (the economy is doing well), expected returns are low, and when consumer confidence is high, expected returns are also low...

  15. Nonparametric confidence intervals for monotone functions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groeneboom, P.; Jongbloed, G.

    2015-01-01

    We study nonparametric isotonic confidence intervals for monotone functions. In [Ann. Statist. 29 (2001) 1699–1731], pointwise confidence intervals, based on likelihood ratio tests using the restricted and unrestricted MLE in the current status model, are introduced. We extend the method to the

  16. Aging and Confidence Judgments in Item Recognition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voskuilen, Chelsea; Ratcliff, Roger; McKoon, Gail

    2018-01-01

    We examined the effects of aging on performance in an item-recognition experiment with confidence judgments. A model for confidence judgments and response time (RTs; Ratcliff & Starns, 2013) was used to fit a large amount of data from a new sample of older adults and a previously reported sample of younger adults. This model of confidence…

  17. Self-confidence and metacognitive processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kleitman Sabina

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the status of Self-confidence trait. Two studies strongly suggest that Self-confidence is a component of metacognition. In the first study, participants (N=132 were administered measures of Self-concept, a newly devised Memory and Reasoning Competence Inventory (MARCI, and a Verbal Reasoning Test (VRT. The results indicate a significant relationship between confidence ratings on the VRT and the Reasoning component of MARCI. The second study (N=296 employed an extensive battery of cognitive tests and several metacognitive measures. Results indicate the presence of robust Self-confidence and Metacognitive Awareness factors, and a significant correlation between them. Self-confidence taps not only processes linked to performance on items that have correct answers, but also beliefs about events that may never occur.

  18. Eliminative Argumentation: A Basis for Arguing Confidence in System Properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-02-01

    Eliminative Argumentation: A Basis for Arguing Confidence in System Properties John B. Goodenough Charles B. Weinstock Ari Z. Klein February... Goodenough 2012]. The current report supersedes our earlier report by providing a revised nota- tion, explicit rules for using the notation correctly, a...Theory of Argument Structure. Foris Publications, 1991. [ Goodenough 2012] Goodenough , J. B., Weinstock, C. B., & Klein, A. Z. Toward a Theory of

  19. We will be champions: Leaders' confidence in 'us' inspires team members' team confidence and performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fransen, K; Steffens, N K; Haslam, S A; Vanbeselaere, N; Vande Broek, G; Boen, F

    2016-12-01

    The present research examines the impact of leaders' confidence in their team on the team confidence and performance of their teammates. In an experiment involving newly assembled soccer teams, we manipulated the team confidence expressed by the team leader (high vs neutral vs low) and assessed team members' responses and performance as they unfolded during a competition (i.e., in a first baseline session and a second test session). Our findings pointed to team confidence contagion such that when the leader had expressed high (rather than neutral or low) team confidence, team members perceived their team to be more efficacious and were more confident in the team's ability to win. Moreover, leaders' team confidence affected individual and team performance such that teams led by a highly confident leader performed better than those led by a less confident leader. Finally, the results supported a hypothesized mediational model in showing that the effect of leaders' confidence on team members' team confidence and performance was mediated by the leader's perceived identity leadership and members' team identification. In conclusion, the findings of this experiment suggest that leaders' team confidence can enhance members' team confidence and performance by fostering members' identification with the team. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Communication confidence in persons with aphasia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babbitt, Edna M; Cherney, Leora R

    2010-01-01

    Communication confidence is a construct that has not been explored in the aphasia literature. Recently, national and international organizations have endorsed broader assessment methods that address quality of life and include participation, activity, and impairment domains as well as psychosocial areas. Individuals with aphasia encounter difficulties in all these areas on a daily basis in living with a communication disorder. Improvements are often reflected in narratives that are not typically included in standard assessments. This article illustrates how a new instrument measuring communication confidence might fit into a broad assessment framework and discusses the interaction of communication confidence, autonomy, and self-determination for individuals living with aphasia.

  1. 76 FR 45653 - Continuation of the National Emergency With Respect to Actions of Certain Persons to Undermine...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-08-01

    ... undermine Lebanese sovereignty and contribute to political and economic instability in that country and the region and constitute an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of... institutions and certain other persons, pursuant to the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (50 U.S.C...

  2. Expenditure, confidence, and Uncertainty: Identifying shocks to consumer confidence using daily data

    OpenAIRE

    Lachowska, Marta

    2013-01-01

    The importance of consumer confidence in stimulating economic activity is a disputed issue in macroeconomics. Do changes in confidence represent autonomous fluctuations in optimism, independent of information on economic fundamentals, or are they a reflection of economic news? I study this question by using high-frequency microdata on spending and consumer confidence, and I find that consumer confidence contains information relevant to predicting spending, independent from other indicators. T...

  3. Visualizing Neural Machine Translation Attention and Confidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rikters Matīss

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available In this article, we describe a tool for visualizing the output and attention weights of neural machine translation systems and for estimating confidence about the output based on the attention.

  4. Observed confidence levels theory and application

    CERN Document Server

    Polansky, Alan M

    2007-01-01

    Illustrating a simple, novel method for solving an array of statistical problems, Observed Confidence Levels: Theory and Application describes the basic development of observed confidence levels, a methodology that can be applied to a variety of common multiple testing problems in statistical inference. It focuses on the modern nonparametric framework of bootstrap-based estimates, allowing for substantial theoretical development and for relatively simple solutions to numerous interesting problems. After an introduction, the book develops the theory and application of observed confidence levels for general scalar parameters, vector parameters, and linear models. It then examines nonparametric problems often associated with smoothing methods, including nonparametric density estimation and regression. The author also describes applications in generalized linear models, classical nonparametric statistics, multivariate analysis, and survival analysis as well as compares the method of observed confidence levels to...

  5. Weighting Mean and Variability during Confidence Judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Gardelle, Vincent; Mamassian, Pascal

    2015-01-01

    Humans can not only perform some visual tasks with great precision, they can also judge how good they are in these tasks. However, it remains unclear how observers produce such metacognitive evaluations, and how these evaluations might be dissociated from the performance in the visual task. Here, we hypothesized that some stimulus variables could affect confidence judgments above and beyond their impact on performance. In a motion categorization task on moving dots, we manipulated the mean and the variance of the motion directions, to obtain a low-mean low-variance condition and a high-mean high-variance condition with matched performances. Critically, in terms of confidence, observers were not indifferent between these two conditions. Observers exhibited marked preferences, which were heterogeneous across individuals, but stable within each observer when assessed one week later. Thus, confidence and performance are dissociable and observers’ confidence judgments put different weights on the stimulus variables that limit performance. PMID:25793275

  6. Confidence bands for inverse regression models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birke, Melanie; Bissantz, Nicolai; Holzmann, Hajo

    2010-01-01

    We construct uniform confidence bands for the regression function in inverse, homoscedastic regression models with convolution-type operators. Here, the convolution is between two non-periodic functions on the whole real line rather than between two periodic functions on a compact interval, since the former situation arguably arises more often in applications. First, following Bickel and Rosenblatt (1973 Ann. Stat. 1 1071–95) we construct asymptotic confidence bands which are based on strong approximations and on a limit theorem for the supremum of a stationary Gaussian process. Further, we propose bootstrap confidence bands based on the residual bootstrap and prove consistency of the bootstrap procedure. A simulation study shows that the bootstrap confidence bands perform reasonably well for moderate sample sizes. Finally, we apply our method to data from a gel electrophoresis experiment with genetically engineered neuronal receptor subunits incubated with rat brain extract

  7. How do risk attitudes affect measured confidence?

    OpenAIRE

    Zahra Murad; Chris Starmer; Martin Sefton

    2014-01-01

    We examine confidence in own absolute performance using two elicitation procedures: self-reported (non-incentivised) confidence and an incentivised procedure that elicits the certainty equivalent of a bet based on performance. The former procedure reproduces the "hard-easy effect" (overconfidence in easy tasks and underconfidence in hard tasks) found in a large number of studies using non-incentivised self-reports. The latter procedure produces general underconfidence, which is somewhat reduc...

  8. Basal Cell Carcinoma Surgery: Simple Undermining Approach in Two Patients with Different Tumour Locations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georgi Tchernev

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Basal cell carcinoma (BCC is the most common human malignancy, accounting for the majority of all non-melanoma skin cancers (NMSC. In the past several decades the worldwide incidence of BCC has constantly been increasing. Even though it is a slow growing tumour that, left untreated, rarely metastasizes, it has a distinctive invasive growth pattern, posing a considerable risk for local invasion and destruction of underlying tissues, such as muscle, cartilage, bone or vital structures. Advanced BCCs include such locally invasive or metastatic tumours. Complete surgical excision is the standard therapy for most uncomplicated BCC cases with good prognosis and cure rates. Treatment of advanced forms of BCCs poses significant therapeutic challenges, most often requiring complicated surgery, radiotherapy, and/or targeted therapies directed towards the sonic hedgehog signalling pathway (SHH. We present two cases of large BCCs located on the scalp and posterior thorax, which underwent surgical excision with clear margins, followed by reconstruction of the defect after extensive undermining of the skin.

  9. International-local remuneration differences across six countries: do they undermine poverty reduction work?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carr, Stuart C; McWha, Ishbel; Maclachlan, Malcolm; Furnham, Adrian

    2010-10-01

    Despite the rhetoric of a single global economy, professionals in poorer countries continue to be remunerated differently depending on whether they are compensated at a local vs. international rate. Project ADDUP (Are Development Discrepancies Undermining Performance?) surveyed 1290 expatriate and local professionals (response rate = 47%) from aid, education, government, and business sectors in (1) Island Nations (Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands), (2) landlocked economies (Malaŵi, Uganda), and (3) emerging economies (India, China). Difference in pay was estimated using purchasing power parity, from the World Bank's World Development Indicators 2007. Psychological measures included self-reported pay and benefits (remuneration), self-attributed ability, remuneration comparison, sense of justice in remuneration, remuneration-related motivation, thoughts of turnover and thoughts about international mobility. We included control measures of candour, culture shock, cultural values (horizontal/vertical individualism/collectivism), personality (from the "big five"), job satisfaction and work engagement. Controlling for these and country (small effects) and organization effects (medium), (a) pay ratios between international and local workers exceeded what were perceived to be acceptable pay thresholds among respondents remunerated locally; who also reported a combination of a sense of relative (b) injustice and demotivation; which (c) together with job satisfaction/work engagement predicted turnover and international mobility. These findings question the wisdom of dual salary systems in general, expose and challenge a major contradiction between contemporary development policy and practice, and have a range of practical, organizational, and theoretical implications for poverty reduction work.

  10. African Trypanosomes Undermine Humoral Responses and Vaccine Development: Link with Inflammatory Responses?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benoit Stijlemans

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available African trypanosomosis is a debilitating disease of great medical and socioeconomical importance. It is caused by strictly extracellular protozoan parasites capable of infecting all vertebrate classes including human, livestock, and game animals. To survive within their mammalian host, trypanosomes have evolved efficient immune escape mechanisms and manipulate the entire host immune response, including the humoral response. This report provides an overview of how trypanosomes initially trigger and subsequently undermine the development of an effective host antibody response. Indeed, results available to date obtained in both natural and experimental infection models show that trypanosomes impair homeostatic B-cell lymphopoiesis, B-cell maturation and survival and B-cell memory development. Data on B-cell dysfunctioning in correlation with parasite virulence and trypanosome-mediated inflammation will be discussed, as well as the impact of trypanosomosis on heterologous vaccine efficacy and diagnosis. Therefore, new strategies aiming at enhancing vaccination efficacy could benefit from a combination of (i early parasite diagnosis, (ii anti-trypanosome (drugs treatment, and (iii anti-inflammatory treatment that collectively might allow B-cell recovery and improve vaccination.

  11. Cultivating the Under-Mined: Cross-Case Analysis as Knowledge Mobilization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samia Khan

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Despite a plethora of case studies in the social sciences, it is the authors' opinion that case studies remain relatively under-mined sources of expertise. Cross-case analysis is a research method that can mobilize knowledge from individual case studies. The authors propose that mobilization of case knowledge occurs when researchers accumulate case knowledge, compare and contrast cases, and in doing so, produce new knowledge. In this article, the authors present theories of how people can learn from sets of cases. Second, existing techniques for cross-case analysis are discussed. Third, considerations that enable researchers to engage in cross-case analysis are suggested. Finally, the authors introduce a novel online database: the Foresee (4C database. The purpose of the database is to mobilize case knowledge by helping researchers perform cross-case analysis and by creating an online research community that facilitates dialogue and the mobilization of case knowledge. The design of the 4C database is informed by theories of how people learn from case studies and cross-case analysis techniques. We present evidence from case study research that use of the 4C database helps to mobilize previously dormant case study knowledge to foster greater expertise. URN: urn:nbn:de:0114-fqs0801348

  12. Benevolent Sexism and Support of Romantic Partner's Goals: Undermining Women's Competence While Fulfilling Men's Intimacy Needs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammond, Matthew D; Overall, Nickola C

    2015-09-01

    The current research demonstrates how benevolent sexism functions to undermine women's competence while facilitating men's access to heterosexual intimacy by prompting different support behaviors by men and women. Objective coders rated the support provision exhibited during heterosexual couples' (N = 100) video-recorded discussions of each other's personal goals. Men who endorsed benevolent sexism provided more dependency-oriented support, including directly providing plans and solutions and neglecting the recipient's own abilities, which led to their female partners feeling less competent and less positively regarded. In contrast, women who endorsed benevolent sexism provided greater relationship-oriented support, characterized by affection and emphasizing the positive relationship outcomes associated with their partner's goals, which led their male partners to perceive greater regard and intimacy in their relationship. This study is the first to investigate how benevolent sexism prompts naturalistic support behaviors that can impede women's capacity for independent success while supporting the fulfillment of men's intimacy needs. © 2015 by the Society for Personality and Social Psychology, Inc.

  13. Language fouls in teaching ecology: why traditional metaphors undermine conservation literacy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cachelin, Adrienne; Norvell, Russell; Darling, Ann

    2010-06-01

    We believe that the language commonly used in teaching actually hinders the creation of conservation literacy. We examined four frequently used ecology and environmental studies textbooks and considered the ways in which commonly used language can obscure or enhance an understanding of ecology and conservation. Specifically, we used the Sapir-Whorf hypothesis (a.k.a. linguistic relativity) and framing theory to examine the approaches reflected in three elements of the texts: introductions and treatment of two key ecological concepts (matter cycling and energy). Language used in the texts contained implicit metaphors that portrayed nature as a resource; resisted ecological realities, such as the finite nature of matter and the loss of energy with each transformation; and fundamentally served to separate humans from nature. Although the basis of conservation literacy is understanding of the complexity of ecological systems, culturally based communication as exemplified in these texts does not encourage students or educators to recognize the feedback loops that clarify human membership in the ecosystem. Consequently, the language used to teach ecology perpetuates the idea that humans exist outside of its laws. With this paper, we hope to initiate a dialogue about how to retool the language used in teaching and communicating about ecology such that it resonates with, rather than undermines, conservation.

  14. Being trusted: How team generational age diversity promotes and undermines trust in cross‐boundary relationships

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    Summary We examine how demographic context influences the trust that boundary spanners experience in their dyadic relationships with clients. Because of the salience of age as a demographic characteristic as well as the increasing prevalence of age diversity and intergenerational conflict in the workplace, we focus on team age diversity as a demographic social context that affects trust between boundary spanners and their clients. Using social categorization theory and theories of social capital, we develop and test our contextual argument that a boundary spanner's experience of being trusted is influenced by the social categorization processes that occur in dyadic interactions with a specific client and, simultaneously, by similar social categorization processes that influence the degree to which the client team as a whole serves as a cooperative resource for demographically similar versus dissimilar boundary spanner–client dyads. Using a sample of 168 senior boundary spanners from the consulting industry, we find that generational diversity among client team members from a client organization undermines the perception of being trusted within homogeneous boundary spanner–client dyads while it enhances the perception of being trusted within heterogeneous dyads. The perception of being trusted is an important aspect of cross‐boundary relationships because it influences coordination and the costs associated with coordination. © 2015 The Author Journal of Organizational Behavior Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd PMID:27721558

  15. Being trusted: How team generational age diversity promotes and undermines trust in cross-boundary relationships.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Michele

    2016-04-01

    We examine how demographic context influences the trust that boundary spanners experience in their dyadic relationships with clients. Because of the salience of age as a demographic characteristic as well as the increasing prevalence of age diversity and intergenerational conflict in the workplace, we focus on team age diversity as a demographic social context that affects trust between boundary spanners and their clients. Using social categorization theory and theories of social capital, we develop and test our contextual argument that a boundary spanner's experience of being trusted is influenced by the social categorization processes that occur in dyadic interactions with a specific client and, simultaneously, by similar social categorization processes that influence the degree to which the client team as a whole serves as a cooperative resource for demographically similar versus dissimilar boundary spanner-client dyads. Using a sample of 168 senior boundary spanners from the consulting industry, we find that generational diversity among client team members from a client organization undermines the perception of being trusted within homogeneous boundary spanner-client dyads while it enhances the perception of being trusted within heterogeneous dyads. The perception of being trusted is an important aspect of cross-boundary relationships because it influences coordination and the costs associated with coordination. © 2015 The Author Journal of Organizational Behavior Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Confidence in value-based choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Martino, Benedetto; Fleming, Stephen M.; Garrett, Neil; Dolan, Raymond

    2013-01-01

    Summary Decisions are never perfect with confidence in one’s choices fluctuating over time. How subjective confidence and valuation of choice options interact at the level of brain and behavior is unknown. Using a dynamic model of the decision process we show that confidence reflects the evolution of a decision variable over time, explaining the observed relation between confidence, value, accuracy and reaction time. As predicted by our dynamic model, we show that an fMRI signal in human ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) reflects both value comparison and confidence in the value comparison process. Crucially, individuals varied in how they related confidence to accuracy, allowing us to show that this introspective ability is predicted by a measure of functional connectivity between vmPFC and rostrolateral prefrontal cortex (rlPFC). Our findings provide a mechanistic link between noise in value comparison and metacognitive awareness of choice, enabling us both to want and to express knowledge of what we want. PMID:23222911

  17. Context influences interpretation of eyewitness confidence statements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cash, Daniella K; Lane, Sean M

    2017-04-01

    When an eyewitness makes an identification from a lineup, he or she is asked to provide a confidence statement to help jurors assess credibility. However, these are verbal statements and people must rely on metacognitive processes to correctly interpret them. Recently, Dodson and Dobolyi (2015) argued that a person's interpretation of a witness's verbal confidence is influenced by the diagnosticity of the features used to justify his or her identification. We tested this hypothesis in 2 experiments. Experiment 1 found that, relative to a confidence-only control, participants reduced their ratings of confidence when statements were justified using a facial feature that was shared by lineup members, but not when the feature was unique to the member chosen from the lineup. In Experiment 2, we found that participants integrated across the dimensions of witness confidence and accuracy, even when asked to make separate ratings. Altogether, the results suggest that people readily incorporate contextual information into their interpretations of witnesses' verbal expressions of confidence and evaluations of accuracy. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  18. General Self-confidence and Its Implication on Students' Achievement in Oral Presentation

    OpenAIRE

    Salim, Agus

    2015-01-01

    In speaking course, the teachers usually ask the students to present their projects in front of the class through an activity called Oral Presentation. However, many of students are afraid of public speaking due to the effect of self-confidence. This study is aimed to (1) describe general self-confidence among Indonesian EFL learners, (2) describe their academic achievement in oral presentation, and (3) find out the relationship between self-confidence and their academ...

  19. Increasing Product Confidence-Shifting Paradigms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Marla; Kashyap, Vishal; Cheung, Mee-Shew

    2015-01-01

    Leaders in the pharmaceutical, medical device, and food industries expressed a unilateral concern over product confidence throughout the total product lifecycle, an unsettling fact for these leaders to manage given that their products affect the lives of millions of people each year. Fueled by the heparin incident of intentional adulteration in 2008, initial efforts for increasing product confidence were focused on improving the confidence of incoming materials, with a belief that supplier performance must be the root cause. As in the heparin case, concern over supplier performance extended deep into the supply chain to include suppliers of the suppliers-which is often a blind spot for pharmaceutical, device, and food manufacturers. Resolved to address the perceived lack of supplier performance, these U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-regulated industries began to adopt the supplier relationship management strategy, developed by the automotive industry, that emphasizes "management" of suppliers for the betterment of the manufacturers. Current product and supplier management strategies, however, have not led to a significant improvement in product confidence. As a result of the enduring concern by industry leaders over the lack of product confidence, Xavier University launched the Integrity of Supply Initiative in 2012 with a team of industry leaders and FDA officials. Through a methodical research approach, data generated by the pharmaceutical, medical device, and food manufacturers surprisingly pointed to themselves as a source of the lack of product confidence, and revealed that manufacturers either unknowingly increase the potential for error or can control/prevent many aspects of product confidence failure. It is only through this paradigm shift that manufacturers can work collaboratively with their suppliers as equal partners, instead of viewing their suppliers as "lesser" entities needing to be controlled. The basis of this shift provides manufacturers

  20. Confidence-building and Canadian leadership

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cleminson, F.R.

    1998-01-01

    Confidence-building has come into its own as a 'tool of choice' in facilitating the non-proliferation, arms control and disarmament (NACD) agenda, whether regional or global. From the Middle East Peace Process (MEPP) to the ASEAN Intersessional Group on Confidence-Building (ARF ISG on CBMS), confidence-building has assumed a central profile in regional terms. In the Four Power Talks begun in Geneva on December 9, 1997, the United States identified confidence-building as one of two subject areas for initial discussion as part of a structured peace process between North and South Korea. Thus, with CBMs assuming such a high profile internationally, it seems prudent for Canadians to pause and take stock of the significant role which Canada has already played in the conceptual development of the process over the last two decades. Since the Helsinki accords of 1975, Canada has developed a significant expertise in this area through an unbroken series of original, basic research projects. These have contributed to defining the process internationally from concept to implementation. Today, these studies represent a solid and unique Departmental investment in basic research from which to draw in meeting Canada's current commitments to multilateral initiatives in the area of confidence-building and to provide a 'step up' in terms of future-oriented leadership. (author)

  1. ADAM SMITH: THE INVISIBLE HAND OR CONFIDENCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Luis, Gache

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In 1776 Adam Smith raised the matter that an invisible hand was the one which moved the markets to obtain its efficiency. Despite in the present paper we are going to raise the hypothesis, that this invisible hand is in fact the confidence that each person feels when he is going to do business. That in addition it is unique, because it is different from the confidence of the others and that is a variable nonlinear that essentially is ligatured to respective personal histories. For that we are going to take as its bases the paper by Leopoldo Abadía (2009, with respect to the financial economy crisis that happened in 2007-2008, to evidence the form in which confidence operates. Therefore the contribution that we hope to do with this paper is to emphasize that, the level of confidence of the different actors, is the one which really moves the markets, (therefore the economy and that the crisis of the subprime mortgages is a confidence crisis at world-wide level.

  2. A Survey Study of Early Childhood Teachers' Beliefs and Confidence about Teaching Early Math

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jie-Qi; McCray, Jennifer; Adams, Margaret; Leow, Christine

    2014-01-01

    This study reports on results from the Early Mathematics Beliefs and Confidence Survey, administered to 346 preschool teachers in a large public school system in the Midwest. Survey results depict a much more positive view of teachers' beliefs and confidence in early math teaching than previously reported. Results also suggest that teacher…

  3. An Introduction to Confidence Intervals for Both Statistical Estimates and Effect Sizes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capraro, Mary Margaret

    This paper summarizes methods of estimating confidence intervals, including classical intervals and intervals for effect sizes. The recent American Psychological Association (APA) Task Force on Statistical Inference report suggested that confidence intervals should always be reported, and the fifth edition of the APA "Publication Manual"…

  4. Adaptive Confidence Bands for Nonparametric Regression Functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, T Tony; Low, Mark; Ma, Zongming

    2014-01-01

    A new formulation for the construction of adaptive confidence bands in non-parametric function estimation problems is proposed. Confidence bands are constructed which have size that adapts to the smoothness of the function while guaranteeing that both the relative excess mass of the function lying outside the band and the measure of the set of points where the function lies outside the band are small. It is shown that the bands adapt over a maximum range of Lipschitz classes. The adaptive confidence band can be easily implemented in standard statistical software with wavelet support. Numerical performance of the procedure is investigated using both simulated and real datasets. The numerical results agree well with the theoretical analysis. The procedure can be easily modified and used for other nonparametric function estimation models.

  5. Risk undermined in the bilateral pharmaceutical regulatory system in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hui-Po; Wang, Chun-Li

    2018-04-01

    The concept of Pharmacovigilance Planning and Risk Minimization Planning (PVP/RMP), initiated by the International Conference on Harmonization (ICH), addressed an important conceptual change from monitoring the safety of individual medicine to proactively conducting risk prevention for the minimization of medication error. However, the implementation of PVP/RMP is a challenge in societies like Taiwan where irrational medication and co-medication is prevalent. It is even more difficult in Taiwan where two regulatory bodies are governing pharmaceutical affairs, namely Taiwan Food and Drug Administration (TFDA) in charge of Western Medicine (WM) and the Department of Chinese Medicine and Pharmacy (DCMP) in charge of Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM). There are thus dual-tract drug approval panels, two GMP controls and two independent adverse drug event reporting systems. This rendered irrational co-medication of WM and TCM undetectable and the standard tools for monitoring pharmacovigilance inapplicable. The bilateral regulatory system is conceptually unscientific in accordance with PVP/RMP and unethical from humanity point of view. The first part of this review delivers (1) social aspects of polypharmacy in Taiwan; (2) regulatory aspects of pharmaceutical administration; (3) risks undermined in the bilateral regulatory system and (4) pharmacoepidemiology in relation to the risk of polypharmacy. As evidence-based medicine (EBM) forms the fundamental risk-benefit assessment on medication, the second part of this review delivers (1) the scientific aspects of the beauty and the odds of biological system that governs host-xenobiotics interaction; (2) conceptual evolution from product management (pharmacovigilance) to risk management (PVP/RMP); (3) non-biased due process is essential for risk-benefit assessment on medicinal products and (4) the opinion of the authors on system building for safe medication. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  6. Depth-dependent effects of culling—do mesophotic lionfish populations undermine current management?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grey, Rachel; Hendrix, Alicia; Hitchner, Drew; Gress, Erika; Madej, Konrad; Parry, Rachel L.; Régnier-McKellar, Catriona; Jones, Owen P.; Arteaga, María; Izaguirre, Andrea P.; Rogers, Alex D.; Exton, Dan A.

    2017-01-01

    Invasive lionfish (Pterois volitans and P. miles) have spread widely across the western Atlantic and are recognized as a major threat to native marine biodiversity. Although lionfish inhabit both shallow reefs and mesophotic coral ecosystems (MCEs; reefs from 30 to 150 m depth), the primary management response implemented by many countries has been diver-led culling limited to reefs less than 30 m. However, many reef fish undergo ontogenetic migrations, with the largest and therefore most fecund individuals found at greatest depths. Here, we study lionfish density, body size, maturity and dietary patterns across the depth gradient from the surface down to 85 m on heavily culled reefs around Utila, Honduras. We found lionfish at increased densities, body size and weight on MCEs compared with shallow reefs, with MCEs also containing the greatest proportion of actively spawning females, while shallow reefs contained the greatest proportion of immature lionfish. We then compared lionfish behaviour in response to divers on shallow culled and mesophotic unculled Utilan reefs, and on shallow unculled reefs in Tela Bay, on the Honduran mainland. We found that mesophotic lionfish exhibited high alert distances, consistent with individuals previously exposed to culling despite being below the depth limits of removal. In addition, when examining stomach content, we found that fish were the major component of lionfish diets across the depth gradient. Importantly, our results suggest that despite adjacent shallow culling, MCEs retain substantial lionfish populations that may be disproportionately contributing towards continued lionfish recruitment onto the shallow reefs of Utila, potentially undermining current culling-based management. PMID:28573007

  7. Errors in ADAS-cog administration and scoring may undermine clinical trials results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schafer, K; De Santi, S; Schneider, L S

    2011-06-01

    The Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale - cognitive subscale (ADAS-cog) is the most widely used cognitive outcome measure in AD trials. Although errors in administration and scoring have been suggested as factors masking accurate estimates and potential effects of treatments, there have been few formal examinations of errors with the ADAS-cog. We provided ADAS-cog administration training using standard methods to raters who were designated as experienced, potential raters by sponsors or contract research organizations for two clinical trials. Training included 1 hour sessions on test administration, scoring, question periods, and required that raters individually view and score a model ADAS-cog administration. Raters scores were compared to the criterion scores established for the model administration. A total of 108 errors were made by 80.6% of the 72 raters; 37.5% made 1 error, 25.0% made 2 errors and 18.0% made 3 or more. Errors were made in all ADAS-cog subsections. The most common were in word finding difficulty (67% of the raters), word recognition (22%), and orientation (22%). For the raters who made 1, 2, or ≥ 3 errors the ADAS-cog score was 17.5 (95% CI, 17.3 - 17.8), 17.8 (17.0 - 18.5), and 18.8 (17.6 - 20.0), respectively, and compared to the criterion score, 18.3. ADAS-cog means differed significantly and the variances were more than twice as large between those who made errors on word finding and those who did not, 17.6 (SD=1.4) vs. 18.8 (SD=0.9), respectively (χ(2) = 37.2, P ADAS-cog scores and clinical trials outcomes. These errors may undermine detection of medication effects by contributing both to a biased point estimate and increased variance of the outcome.

  8. A systematic review of maternal confidence for physiologic birth: characteristics of prenatal care and confidence measurement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avery, Melissa D; Saftner, Melissa A; Larson, Bridget; Weinfurter, Elizabeth V

    2014-01-01

    Because a focus on physiologic labor and birth has reemerged in recent years, care providers have the opportunity in the prenatal period to help women increase confidence in their ability to give birth without unnecessary interventions. However, most research has only examined support for women during labor. The purpose of this systematic review was to examine the research literature for information about prenatal care approaches that increase women's confidence for physiologic labor and birth and tools to measure that confidence. Studies were reviewed that explored any element of a pregnant woman's interaction with her prenatal care provider that helped build confidence in her ability to labor and give birth. Timing of interaction with pregnant women included during pregnancy, labor and birth, and the postpartum period. In addition, we looked for studies that developed a measure of women's confidence related to labor and birth. Outcome measures included confidence or similar concepts, descriptions of components of prenatal care contributing to maternal confidence for birth, and reliability and validity of tools measuring confidence. The search of MEDLINE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, and Scopus databases provided a total of 893 citations. After removing duplicates and articles that did not meet inclusion criteria, 6 articles were included in the review. Three relate to women's confidence for labor during the prenatal period, and 3 describe tools to measure women's confidence for birth. Research about enhancing women's confidence for labor and birth was limited to qualitative studies. Results suggest that women desire information during pregnancy and want to use that information to participate in care decisions in a relationship with a trusted provider. Further research is needed to develop interventions to help midwives and physicians enhance women's confidence in their ability to give birth and to develop a tool to measure confidence for use during prenatal care. © 2014 by

  9. Confidence regions for fabric shape diagrams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ringrose, Trevor J.; Benn, Douglas I.

    1997-12-01

    Fabric shape is often quantified using the three eigenvalues from the 'orientation tensor' method applied to a sample of directions. Several studies have used eigenvalues plotted on fabric shape diagrams to distinguish sedimentary facies or strain histories. However, such studies seldom consider how well the sample eigenvalues represent the true fabric shape. In this paper, we use 'bootstrapping' techniques to define confidence regions for sample eigenvalues, and show that sample and population eigenvalues may differ substantially. Confidence regions are often very large for small sample sizes, and we recommend that sample sizes should be at least 50.

  10. Asymptotically Honest Confidence Regions for High Dimensional

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Caner, Mehmet; Kock, Anders Bredahl

    While variable selection and oracle inequalities for the estimation and prediction error have received considerable attention in the literature on high-dimensional models, very little work has been done in the area of testing and construction of confidence bands in high-dimensional models. However...... of the asymptotic covariance matrix of an increasing number of parameters which is robust against conditional heteroskedasticity. To our knowledge we are the first to do so. Next, we show that our confidence bands are honest over sparse high-dimensional sub vectors of the parameter space and that they contract...

  11. A confidence index for forecasting of meteor showers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaubaillon, Jeremie

    2017-09-01

    The forecasting of meteor showers is currently very good at predicting the timing of meteor outbursts, but still needs further work regarding the level of a given shower. Moreover, uncertainties are rarely provided, leaving the end user (scientist, space agency or the public) with no way to evaluate how much the prediction is trustworthy. A confidence index for the forecasting of meteor showers is presented. It allows one to better understand how a specific forecasting has been performed. In particular, it underlines the role of our current knowledge of the parent body, its past orbit and past activity. The role of close encounters with planets for the time period considered is quantified as well. This confidence index is a first step towards better constrained forecasting of future meteor showers.

  12. Radioactive waste and civil society: Toward confidence and efficiency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferte, Jacques de la

    2001-01-01

    Radioactive waste management is a typical area where a confident and efficient relationship between decision makers and civil society is required to achieve progress. The Radioactive waste management community must now learn the lessons and borrow from the good and bad experiences of government and industry in the area of good governance. Key ingredients include not only good science and technology, but also an early association of stakeholders with the waste management development process, so as to care for social values and generate confidence in the public, notably at the local level. The new NEA Forum will now organise its future work around this concept, collecting and sharing the experience among its members, and working together in an on-going multi-year programme

  13. Hospital revenue cycle management and payer mix: do Medicare and Medicaid undermine hospitals' ability to generate and collect patient care revenue?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rauscher, Simone; Wheeler, John R C

    2010-01-01

    The continuing efforts of government payers to contain hospital costs have raised concerns among hospital managers that serving publicly insured patients may undermine their ability to manage the revenue cycle successfully. This study uses financial information from two sources-Medicare cost reports for all US hospitals for 2002 to 2007 and audited financial statements for all bond-issuing, not-for-profit hospitals for 2000 to 2006 to examine the relationship between hospitals' shares of Medicare and Medicaid patients and the amount of patient care revenue they generate as well as the speed with which they collect their revenue. Hospital-level fixed effects regression analysis finds that hospitals with higher Medicare and Medicaid payer mix collect somewhat higher average patient care revenues than hospitals with more privately insured and self-pay patients. Hospitals with more Medicare patients also collect on this revenue faster; serving more Medicaid patients is not associated with the speed of patient revenue collection. For hospital managers, these findings may represent good news. They suggest that, despite increases in the number of publicly insured patients served, managers have frequently been able to generate adequate amounts of patient revenue and collect it in a timely fashion.

  14. Evaluating impaired drivers confidence and intention to "(Please) drink responsibly".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barry, Adam E; Howell, Steven M; Dennis, Maurice

    2011-04-01

    Currently, alcohol industry-sponsored advertisements subsume traditional designated driver and don't drink and drive messages within responsible drinking campaigns. Yet, to date, there remains a dearth of literature specifically examining the attitudinal beliefs impaired drivers attach to the responsible drinking message. This investigation sought to examine the responsible drinking attitudes and beliefs of impaired drivers, specifically examining their confidence and intention to drink responsibly the next time they consumed alcohol. A random sample of 729 students attending a large, public Texas university completed a web-based administration of the Characteristic of Responsible Drinking Survey (CHORDS). Participants in this sample who had driven while impaired by alcohol exhibited significantly less confidence in refraining from drinking and driving and reported significantly lower intentions to designate a driver, take a taxi, or use a safe-ride program the next time they consumed alcohol. Additionally, they also reported less confidence, and lower intentions, to ensure their blood alcohol concentrations remained below the legal limit (0.08%) the next time they consumed alcohol. Drivers who had driven while impaired significantly differed in their confidence and intention to drink responsibly the next time they consumed alcohol. Logistic regression results indicate that by increasing one's confidence in responsible drinking, and increasing their intention to drink responsibly, the likelihood of impaired driving can be decreased. Results from this investigation demonstrate one's responsible drinking attitudinal beliefs accounts for a significant amount of the variance associated with one's alcohol-related behaviors. Thus, further research should examine and establish how individuals conceptualize and practice responsible drinking. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Tramps, trade union travellers, and wandering workers: how geographic mobility undermined organized labour in Gilded Age America

    OpenAIRE

    Moody, Kimberly S.

    2016-01-01

    This thesis will argue that high levels of internal migration in Gilded Age America undermined the stability and growth of trade unions and labour-based parties. Most of the traditional ‘American Exceptionalist’ arguments which asserted a lack of class consciousness will be challenged. Significant weight will be given to the racial, ethnic, and gender divisions within the American working class as a source of relative organizational weakness. As archival sources reveal, however, despite thei...

  16. Distinguishing highly confident accurate and inaccurate memory: insights about relevant and irrelevant influences on memory confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chua, Elizabeth F.; Hannula, Deborah E.; Ranganath, Charan

    2012-01-01

    It is generally believed that accuracy and confidence in one’s memory are related, but there are many instances when they diverge. Accordingly, it is important to disentangle the factors which contribute to memory accuracy and confidence, especially those factors that contribute to confidence, but not accuracy. We used eye movements to separately measure fluent cue processing, the target recognition experience, and relative evidence assessment on recognition confidence and accuracy. Eye movements were monitored during a face-scene associative recognition task, in which participants first saw a scene cue, followed by a forced-choice recognition test for the associated face, with confidence ratings. Eye movement indices of the target recognition experience were largely indicative of accuracy, and showed a relationship to confidence for accurate decisions. In contrast, eye movements during the scene cue raised the possibility that more fluent cue processing was related to higher confidence for both accurate and inaccurate recognition decisions. In a second experiment, we manipulated cue familiarity, and therefore cue fluency. Participants showed higher confidence for cue-target associations for when the cue was more familiar, especially for incorrect responses. These results suggest that over-reliance on cue familiarity and under-reliance on the target recognition experience may lead to erroneous confidence. PMID:22171810

  17. Evaluating Measures of Optimism and Sport Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fogarty, Gerard J.; Perera, Harsha N.; Furst, Andrea J.; Thomas, Patrick R.

    2016-01-01

    The psychometric properties of the Life Orientation Test-Revised (LOT-R), the Sport Confidence Inventory (SCI), and the Carolina SCI (CSCI) were examined in a study involving 260 athletes. The study aimed to test the dimensional structure, convergent and divergent validity, and invariance over competition level of scores generated by these…

  18. Coping under pressure: Strategies for maintaining confidence ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2010-08-11

    Aug 11, 2010 ... Coping under pressure: Strategies for maintaining confidence amongst South African soccer coaches. Authors: Jhalukpreya Surujlal1. Sheila Nguyen2. Affiliations: 1Faculty of Management. Sciences, Vaal University of. Technology, South Africa. 2Faculty of Business and Law, School of. Management and.

  19. Coefficient Omega Bootstrap Confidence Intervals: Nonnormal Distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padilla, Miguel A.; Divers, Jasmin

    2013-01-01

    The performance of the normal theory bootstrap (NTB), the percentile bootstrap (PB), and the bias-corrected and accelerated (BCa) bootstrap confidence intervals (CIs) for coefficient omega was assessed through a Monte Carlo simulation under conditions not previously investigated. Of particular interests were nonnormal Likert-type and binary items.…

  20. Growing confidence, building skills | IDRC - International ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    For two-time Research Award recipient (2012 and 2014) Ahmed Rashid, his IDRC experience “gave me the confidence to conduct high quality research in social sciences.” In 2012 Rashid explored the influence of think tanks on policy in Bangladesh, as well as their relationships with international donors and media.

  1. Coefficient Alpha Bootstrap Confidence Interval under Nonnormality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padilla, Miguel A.; Divers, Jasmin; Newton, Matthew

    2012-01-01

    Three different bootstrap methods for estimating confidence intervals (CIs) for coefficient alpha were investigated. In addition, the bootstrap methods were compared with the most promising coefficient alpha CI estimation methods reported in the literature. The CI methods were assessed through a Monte Carlo simulation utilizing conditions…

  2. Detecting Disease in Radiographs with Intuitive Confidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Jaeger

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper argues in favor of a specific type of confidence for use in computer-aided diagnosis and disease classification, namely, sine/cosine values of angles represented by points on the unit circle. The paper shows how this confidence is motivated by Chinese medicine and how sine/cosine values are directly related with the two forces Yin and Yang. The angle for which sine and cosine are equal (45° represents the state of equilibrium between Yin and Yang, which is a state of nonduality that indicates neither normality nor abnormality in terms of disease classification. The paper claims that the proposed confidence is intuitive and can be readily understood by physicians. The paper underpins this thesis with theoretical results in neural signal processing, stating that a sine/cosine relationship between the actual input signal and the perceived (learned input is key to neural learning processes. As a practical example, the paper shows how to use the proposed confidence values to highlight manifestations of tuberculosis in frontal chest X-rays.

  3. Validity and Reliability Consequences of Confidence Weighting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopkins, Kenneth D.; And Others

    1973-01-01

    Study was designed to provide some indication as to whether the gain in test reliability from confidence scoring results from relevant or irrelevant sources. If the increase in reliability is the result of a gambling response style, it is conceivable that validity could actually decrease even though reliability is increased. (Authors/CB)

  4. Diagnosing dementia with confidence by GPs.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hout, H.P.J. van; Vernooij-Dassen, M.J.F.J.; Stalman, W.A.B.

    2007-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Earlier reports suggest limited clinical reasoning and substantial uncertainty of GPs in assessing patients suspected of dementia. OBJECTIVE: To explore the predictors of GPs to decide on the presence and absence of dementia as well as the predictors of diagnostic confidence of GPs.

  5. The confidence effects of fiscal consolidations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beetsma, R.M.W.J.; Cimadomo, J.; Furtuna, O.; Giuliodori, M.

    2014-01-01

    We explore how fiscal consolidations affect private sector confidence, a possible channel for the fiscal transmission that has received particular attention recently as a result of governments embarking on austerity trajectories in the aftermath of the crisis. Panel regressions based on the

  6. Observed Consultation: Confidence and Accuracy of Assessors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tweed, Mike; Ingham, Christopher

    2010-01-01

    Judgments made by the assessors observing consultations are widely used in the assessment of medical students. The aim of this research was to study judgment accuracy and confidence and the relationship between these. Assessors watched recordings of consultations, scoring the students on: a checklist of items; attributes of consultation; a…

  7. Principles of psychological confidence of NPP operators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alpeev, A.S.

    1994-01-01

    The problems of operator interaction with subsystems supporting his activity are discussed from the point of view of formation of his psychological confidence on the basis of the automation intellectual means capabilities. The functions of operator activity supporting subsystems, which realization will provide to decrease greatly the portion of accidents at NPPs connected with mistakes in operator actions, are derived. 6 refs

  8. The Confidence Factor in Liberal Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, Daniel

    2012-01-01

    With the US unemployment rate at 9 percent, it's rational for college students to lose confidence in the liberal arts and to opt for a vocational major. Or is it? There is a compelling economic case for the liberal arts. Against those who call for more professional training, liberal educators should concede nothing. However, they do have a…

  9. The confidence effects of fiscal consolidations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beetsma, R.; Cimadomo, J.; Furtuna, O.; Giuliodori, M.

    2015-01-01

    We explore how fiscal consolidations affect private sector confidence, a possible channel for the transmission of fiscal policy that has received particular attention recently as a result of governments embarking on austerity trajectories in the aftermath of the crisis. Panel regressions based on

  10. A Confidence Paradigm for Classification Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-09-01

    some of the overall vocabulary of ATR as well as an object-taxonomy. Fenton and Wang [20] state that classical multi-criteria decision making ( MCDM ...paper intro- duces general fuzzy MCDM problem. The authors state that they believe risk and confidence are the two dimensions in which the DM’s

  11. Toward a Theory of Assurance Case Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-01

    Toward a Theory of Assurance Case Confidence John B. Goodenough Charles B. Weinstock Ari Z. Klein September 2012 TECHNICAL REPORT...6. AUTHOR(S) John B. Goodenough , Charles B. Weinstock, Ari Z. Klein 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) Software Engineering

  12. What undermines healthy habits with regard to physical activity and food? Voices of adolescents in a disadvantaged community.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonsson, Linus; Larsson, Christel; Berg, Christina; Korp, Peter; Lindgren, Eva-Carin

    2017-12-01

    This study aimed to illuminate factors that undermine the healthy habits of adolescents from a multicultural community with low socioeconomic status (S.E.S.) in Sweden with regard to physical activity (P.A.) and food, as stated in their own voices. Adolescents (n = 53, 12-13 y/o) were recruited from one school situated in a multicultural community characterized by low S.E.S. Embracing an interpretive approach, 10 focus-group interviews were conducted to produce data for the study. The focus-group interviews were audio recorded, transcribed verbatim, and analysed using qualitative content analysis. The analysis resulted in two major themes: (1) the availability of temptations is large, and support from the surroundings is limited; and (2) norms and demands set the agenda. The adolescents' voices illuminate a profound awareness and the magnitude of tempting screen-based activities as undermining their P.A. and healthy food habits. Moreover, several gender boundaries were highlighted as undermining girls' P.A. and healthy food habits. The adolescents' stories illuminated that it is difficult for them, within their environment, to establish healthy habits with regard to P.A. and food. To facilitate the adolescents' healthy habits, we suggest that support from family, friends, the school, and society at large is essential.

  13. Controversy undermines support for state mandates on the human papillomavirus vaccine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gollust, Sarah E; Dempsey, Amanda F; Lantz, Paula M; Ubel, Peter A; Fowler, Erika Franklin

    2010-11-01

    State actions requiring adolescent girls to receive the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine created controversy following the vaccine's approval in 2006. Some health professionals worried that the controversy might dampen public support for those state policies and for other school immunizations in general. We fielded an experimental Internet survey to determine how controversy affects attitudes about vaccines. We discovered that public support for the HPV vaccine mandates wanes when the public is informed that the policies are controversial. However, the experimental survey also revealed that exposure to this policy controversy did not spill over and reduce public support for immunizations in general.

  14. The Effect of Adaptive Confidence Strategies in Computer-Assisted Instruction on Learning and Learner Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, Richard Daniel

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this research was to investigate the effects of including adaptive confidence strategies in instructionally sound computer-assisted instruction (CAI) on learning and learner confidence. Seventy-one general educational development (GED) learners recruited from various GED learning centers at community colleges in the southeast United…

  15. The effect of confidence and method of questioning on eyewitness testimony.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venter, A; Louw, D A

    2005-06-01

    Very often eyewitnesses are perceived as being accurate due to the confidence in the accuracy of their own testimony. The confidence displayed by an eyewitness may possibly be increased by the method of questioning used by legal professionals and police. The present study examines the confidence-accuracy relationship and the effect the method of questioning (open-ended versus closed-ended questions) may have on the confidence of eyewitnesses. The sample of 412 respondents consisted of scholars (11 to 14-year-olds), university students, the public and Police College students. A significant relationship between memory accuracy and confidence was found for more than 70% of the questions. Closed-ended questions provided a significantly higher rate of accuracy than open-ended questions. A significantly larger proportion of respondents to the closed-ended questions were more confident about their answers than those who responded to the open-ended questions.

  16. Confidence leak in perceptual decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahnev, Dobromir; Koizumi, Ai; McCurdy, Li Yan; D’Esposito, Mark; Lau, Hakwan

    2015-01-01

    We live in a continuous environment in which the visual scene changes on a slow timescale. It has been shown that, to exploit such environmental stability, the brain creates a “continuity field” such that objects seen seconds ago influence the perception of current objects. What is unknown is whether a similar mechanism exists at the level of our metacognitive representations. In three experiments we demonstrate a robust inter-task “confidence leak” that cannot be explained by response priming or attentional fluctuations. Observers’ ability to modulate this confidence leak predicted higher capacity for metacognition as well as greater gray matter volume in the prefrontal cortex. A model based on normative principles from Bayesian inference explained the results by postulating that observers subjectively estimate the perceptual signal strength in a stable environment. These results point to the existence of a novel metacognitive mechanism mediated by regions in prefrontal cortex. PMID:26408037

  17. Confidence and coverage for Bland-Altman limits of agreement and their approximate confidence intervals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carkeet, Andrew; Goh, Yee Teng

    2018-05-01

    Bland and Altman described approximate methods in 1986 and 1999 for calculating confidence limits for their 95% limits of agreement, approximations which assume large subject numbers. In this paper, these approximations are compared with exact confidence intervals calculated using two-sided tolerance intervals for a normal distribution. The approximations are compared in terms of the tolerance factors themselves but also in terms of the exact confidence limits and the exact limits of agreement coverage corresponding to the approximate confidence interval methods. Using similar methods the 50th percentile of the tolerance interval are compared with the k values of 1.96 and 2, which Bland and Altman used to define limits of agreements (i.e. [Formula: see text]+/- 1.96S d and [Formula: see text]+/- 2S d ). For limits of agreement outer confidence intervals, Bland and Altman's approximations are too permissive for sample sizes confidence limits the approximations are poorer, being permissive for sample sizes of confidence intervals for 95% limits of agreements, based on two-sided tolerance factors, can be calculated easily based on tables and should be used in preference to the approximate methods, especially for small sample sizes.

  18. Confidence maps and confidence intervals for near infrared images in breast cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tosteson, T D; Pogue, B W; Demidenko, E; McBride, T O; Paulsen, K D

    1999-12-01

    This paper extends basic concepts of statistical hypothesis testing and confidence intervals to images generated by a new procedure for near infrared spectroscopic tomography being developed for use in breast cancer diagnosis. By estimating the covariance matrix of the pixels of an image from data used in the image reconstruction process, confidence maps for statistical tests on individual pixels and confidence intervals for entire images are displayed as an aid to research and clinical personnel interpreting possibly noisy images. The methods are applied to simulated and phantom-based images.

  19. 78 FR 65903 - Proposed Waste Confidence Rule and Draft Generic Environmental Impact Statement

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-11-04

    ...; Orlando, Florida, on November 6; and Rockville, Maryland, on November 14. The December 9 meeting is a new.... ACTION: Rescheduling of public meetings. SUMMARY: The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has rescheduled the Waste Confidence public meetings it initially planned to hold in Perrysburg, Ohio, and...

  20. A self-regulatory perspective of work-to-home undermining spillover/crossover: Examining the roles of sleep and exercise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barber, Larissa K; Taylor, Shannon G; Burton, James P; Bailey, Sarah F

    2017-05-01

    Research demonstrating that employees who are undermined at work engage in similar behavior at home suggests this connection reflects displaced aggression. In contrast, the present study draws on self-regulation theory to examine the work-home undermining spillover/crossover process. We propose that poor sleep quality transmits the influence of workplace undermining to home undermining per self-regulatory impairment, and exercise moderates this indirect effect per self-regulatory improvement. Using matched data from 118 employees and a member of their household to test our model, results demonstrated that undermining experienced from supervisors increased subjective (i.e., self-reported) but not objective (i.e., actigraph-recorded) sleep difficulties, which, in turn, increased the frequency with which individuals engaged in undermining at home (as reported by cohabitants). Additionally, indirect effects occurred for employees with low but not high levels of physical exercise (as measured by self-reports, step counts, and energy expenditure). Our findings suggest sleep and exercise may serve as valuable intervention points to prevent the spread of harmful behavior across contexts. Implications for theory and practice are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  1. The relationship between confidence in charitable organizations and volunteering revisited

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bekkers, René H.F.P.; Bowman, Woods

    2009-01-01

    Confidence in charitable organizations (charitable confidence) would seem to be an important prerequisite for philanthropic behavior. Previous research relying on cross-sectional data has suggested that volunteering promotes charitable confidence and vice versa. This research note, using new

  2. Diagnosing Anomalous Network Performance with Confidence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Settlemyer, Bradley W [ORNL; Hodson, Stephen W [ORNL; Kuehn, Jeffery A [ORNL; Poole, Stephen W [ORNL

    2011-04-01

    Variability in network performance is a major obstacle in effectively analyzing the throughput of modern high performance computer systems. High performance interconnec- tion networks offer excellent best-case network latencies; how- ever, highly parallel applications running on parallel machines typically require consistently high levels of performance to adequately leverage the massive amounts of available computing power. Performance analysts have usually quantified network performance using traditional summary statistics that assume the observational data is sampled from a normal distribution. In our examinations of network performance, we have found this method of analysis often provides too little data to under- stand anomalous network performance. Our tool, Confidence, instead uses an empirically derived probability distribution to characterize network performance. In this paper we describe several instances where the Confidence toolkit allowed us to understand and diagnose network performance anomalies that we could not adequately explore with the simple summary statis- tics provided by traditional measurement tools. In particular, we examine a multi-modal performance scenario encountered with an Infiniband interconnection network and we explore the performance repeatability on the custom Cray SeaStar2 interconnection network after a set of software and driver updates.

  3. Towards Measurement of Confidence in Safety Cases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denney, Ewen; Paim Ganesh J.; Habli, Ibrahim

    2011-01-01

    Arguments in safety cases are predominantly qualitative. This is partly attributed to the lack of sufficient design and operational data necessary to measure the achievement of high-dependability targets, particularly for safety-critical functions implemented in software. The subjective nature of many forms of evidence, such as expert judgment and process maturity, also contributes to the overwhelming dependence on qualitative arguments. However, where data for quantitative measurements is systematically collected, quantitative arguments provide far more benefits over qualitative arguments, in assessing confidence in the safety case. In this paper, we propose a basis for developing and evaluating integrated qualitative and quantitative safety arguments based on the Goal Structuring Notation (GSN) and Bayesian Networks (BN). The approach we propose identifies structures within GSN-based arguments where uncertainties can be quantified. BN are then used to provide a means to reason about confidence in a probabilistic way. We illustrate our approach using a fragment of a safety case for an unmanned aerial system and conclude with some preliminary observations

  4. Government policy, research and stakeholder confidence - Current Trends in Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Letourneau, Carmel

    2006-01-01

    The author addressed the topic of government Policy, research and stakeholder Confidence from the perspective of government policy makers in Canada. The presentation reviewed the question: why carry out more research into methods of long-term management of nuclear fuel waste? In addressing this question, the author provided some perspectives that were expressed by the Canadian public, since reflected in the Final Study of management approaches led by the Nuclear Waste Management Organization (NWMO), an organization set up by the nuclear industry to study options for the long-term management of nuclear fuel waste. The Final Study was submitted to the federal Minister of Natural Resources in November 2005 as required under the Nuclear Fuel Waste Act. The NWMO's Final Study emphasized the important role of continuous learning, a key element in the NWMO's recommendation of Adaptive Phased Management. It was reported that the NWMO work had identified many reasons to carry out further research. Regardless of the management approach adopted, activities to manage radioactive waste will continue for a very long time. Any management program could be expected to apply the best practice available at the time. A program that will evolve over a long period of time will have many opportunities for improvements to increase performance, enhance effectiveness, and address rising societal concerns. It was suggested that, to realize these benefits, there needs to be a vibrant and robust research and development effort during management program development and execution, a period that will last many generations, and enable implementers to adapt to a changing environment. Among the reasons put forward for continuing research were, to: - Embody the principles of continuous learning which encourages standards of excellence and integrity; - Prepare for facility siting, design, licensing, development and operations to improve designs, minimize costs, enhance schedules, and reduce

  5. Improving TSA’s Public Image: Customer-Focused Initiatives to Encourage Public Trust and Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-12-01

    Travel and Tourism Progress Report,” 3. 375 Aho, “2012 Customer Service Hall of Fame.” 376 Cockerell, Creating Magic, 15. 116 attention. For...to engage the millions of travelers —business or leisure —who rely on predictable, safe, efficient transportation. As a result of this myopic approach...406 “White House Releases New Travel and Tourism Progress Report,” Imperial Valley News, September 19, 2012, http

  6. From Play to School: Are Core Values of ECEC in Iceland Being Undermined by "Schoolification"?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunnarsdottir, Bryndis

    2014-01-01

    Iceland has a strong tradition of universal public early childhood education and care (ECEC) services for children. The traditional pedagogy is founded on play-based learning with the holistic view of the development of the child is central to practice. With increased interest in education following the 2008 financial crisis, there are signs that…

  7. Interpersonal confidence as a factor in the prevention of disorganized interaction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dontsov, Aleksander I.

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Human communities are based on a certain set of everyday attitudes, on the coordination of the actions of “the self ” in a group, and on the regulation of social practices. The results of this study show that a number of factors act as determinants of trust/ distrust ambivalence: the multidimensionality and the dynamics of interactions among people; the high level of subjectivity in evaluating risks resulting from openness and from confidence in partners involved in an interaction; and a subject’s contradictory attitude toward the personal traits of an interacting partner (power, activity, honesty, trustworthiness. Japanese scholars have proved the necessity of taking into account quality of life (QOL as one of the determinants of the development of interpersonal confidence. The study demonstrates that people try to bring trust into their daily routines as a way of organizing conscientious, emotionally open interactions that take into account the interests of all parties. Mistrust blocks access to the emotional, intellectual, and activity-related resources supporting life and undermines faith in the possibility of virtue and morality. Yet a supplementary study (using instant diagnostics indicates that in practice respondents did not demonstrate a high level of confidence (in two cities it was 0%; in one city, it was 4.6%. In spite of emotionally positive views regarding trust, as well as constructive estimates of its moral/behavioral potential, a considerable number of respondents were not open and oriented to the interests of others. A tendency toward caution, inwardness, and constrained sincerity leads to nonconformity in one’s actions in a group and to changes in the vector of social practices from socio-partner regulation to disorganized interaction.

  8. Combining one-sample confidence procedures for inference in the two-sample case.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fay, Michael P; Proschan, Michael A; Brittain, Erica

    2015-03-01

    We present a simple general method for combining two one-sample confidence procedures to obtain inferences in the two-sample problem. Some applications give striking connections to established methods; for example, combining exact binomial confidence procedures gives new confidence intervals on the difference or ratio of proportions that match inferences using Fisher's exact test, and numeric studies show the associated confidence intervals bound the type I error rate. Combining exact one-sample Poisson confidence procedures recreates standard confidence intervals on the ratio, and introduces new ones for the difference. Combining confidence procedures associated with one-sample t-tests recreates the Behrens-Fisher intervals. Other applications provide new confidence intervals with fewer assumptions than previously needed. For example, the method creates new confidence intervals on the difference in medians that do not require shift and continuity assumptions. We create a new confidence interval for the difference between two survival distributions at a fixed time point when there is independent censoring by combining the recently developed beta product confidence procedure for each single sample. The resulting interval is designed to guarantee coverage regardless of sample size or censoring distribution, and produces equivalent inferences to Fisher's exact test when there is no censoring. We show theoretically that when combining intervals asymptotically equivalent to normal intervals, our method has asymptotically accurate coverage. Importantly, all situations studied suggest guaranteed nominal coverage for our new interval whenever the original confidence procedures themselves guarantee coverage. Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  9. Confidence crisis of results in biomechanics research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knudson, Duane

    2017-11-01

    Many biomechanics studies have small sample sizes and incorrect statistical analyses, so reporting of inaccurate inferences and inflated magnitude of effects are common in the field. This review examines these issues in biomechanics research and summarises potential solutions from research in other fields to increase the confidence in the experimental effects reported in biomechanics. Authors, reviewers and editors of biomechanics research reports are encouraged to improve sample sizes and the resulting statistical power, improve reporting transparency, improve the rigour of statistical analyses used, and increase the acceptance of replication studies to improve the validity of inferences from data in biomechanics research. The application of sports biomechanics research results would also improve if a larger percentage of unbiased effects and their uncertainty were reported in the literature.

  10. Confidence intervals for annual wind power production******

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bensoussan Alain

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Wind power is an intermittent resource due to wind speed intermittency. However wind speed can be described as a stochastic process with short memory. This allows us to derive a central limit theorem for the annual or pluri-annual wind power production and then get quantiles of the wind power production for one, ten or twenty years future periods. On the one hand, the interquantile spread offers a measurement of the intrinsic uncertainties of wind power production. On the other hand, different quantiles with different periods of time are used by financial institutions to quantify the financial risk of the wind turbine. Our method is then applied to real datasets corresponding to a French wind turbine. Since confidence intervals can be enhanced by taking into account seasonality, we present some tools for change point analysis on wind series.

  11. Fusing photovoltaic data for improved confidence intervals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ansgar Steland

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Characterizing and testing photovoltaic modules requires carefully made measurements on important variables such as the power output under standard conditions. When additional data is available, which has been collected using a different measurement system and therefore may be of different accuracy, the question arises how one can combine the information present in both data sets. In some cases one even has prior knowledge about the ordering of the variances of the measurement errors, which is not fully taken into account by commonly known estimators. We discuss several statistical estimators to combine the sample means of independent series of measurements, both under the assumption of heterogeneous variances and ordered variances. The critical issue is then to assess the estimator’s variance and to construct confidence intervals. We propose and discuss the application of a new jackknife variance estimator devised by [1] to such photovoltaic data, in order to assess the variability of common mean estimation under heterogeneous and ordered variances in a reliable and nonparametric way. When serial correlations are present, which usually a ect the marginal variances, it is proposed to construct a thinned data set by downsampling the series in such a way that autocorrelations are removed or dampened. We propose a data adaptive procedure which downsamples a series at irregularly spaced time points in such a way that the autocorrelations are minimized. The procedures are illustrated by applying them to real photovoltaic power output measurements from two different sun light flashers. In addition, focusing on simulations governed by real photovoltaic data, we investigate the accuracy of the jackknife approach and compare it with other approaches. Among those is a variance estimator based on Nair’s formula for Gaussian data and, as a parametric alternative, two Bayesian models. We investigate the statistical accuracy of the resulting confidence

  12. Measurement of confidence: the development and psychometric evaluation of a stroke-specific, measure of confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horne, Jane C; Lincoln, Nadina B; Logan, Pip A

    2017-11-01

    To design, develop and psychometrically evaluate a stroke-specific measure of confidence, the Confidence after Stroke Measure (CaSM). Cross-sectional. Adults in the community. Stroke survivors and healthy elderly participants. Questionnaire items were generated based on the literature and qualitative interviews and piloted with expert groups to establish face validity. A 53-item CaSM was administered to stroke survivors and healthy elderly participants in the community. A second copy was posted four weeks later. Completed questionnaires were analysed for extreme responses, missing values, construct validity (factor analysis), convergent validity, divergent validity, reliability (internal consistency and temporal stability) and comparing responses according to age and gender. Stroke ( n = 101) and healthy elderly participants ( n = 101) returned questionnaires. Eight items were removed that had extreme responses and large numbers of missing values. Six items had item total correlations Confidence, Positive Attitude and Social Confidence, which explained 52% of variance. Cronbach's alpha coefficient demonstrated good internal consistency ( α = 0.94). A test re-test on the 27 items indicated good temporal stability ( r = 0.85, P = 0.001). The 27-item CaSM was a valid and reliable measure for assessing confidence in stroke survivors.

  13. The 2010 Retirement Confidence Survey: confidence stabilizing, but preparations continue to erode.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helman, Ruth; Copeland, Craig; VanDerhei, Jack

    2010-03-01

    20TH ANNUAL RCS: The 2010 Retirement Confidence Survey-the 20th annual wave of this survey-finds that the record-low confidence levels measured during the past two years of economic decline appear to have bottomed out. The percentage of workers veryconfident about having enough money for a comfortable retirement has stabilized at 16 percent, which is statistically equivalent to the 20-year low of 13 percent measured in 2009 (Fig. 1, pg. 7). Retiree confidence about having a financially secure retirement has also stabilized, with 19 percent saying now they are very confident (statistically equivalent to the 20 percent measured in 2009) (Fig. 2, pg. 8). Worker confidence about paying for basic expenses in retirement has rebounded slightly, with 29 percent now saying they are very confident about having enough money to pay for basic expenses during retirement (up from 25 percent in 2009, but still down from 34 percent in 2008) (Fig. 3, pg. 9). PREPARATIONS STILL ERODING: Fewer workers report that they and/or their spouse have saved for retirement (69 percent, down from 75 percent in 2009 but statistically equivalent to 72 percent in 2008) (Fig. 11, page 14). Moreover, fewer workers say that they and/or their spouse are currently saving for retirement (60 percent, down from 65 percent in 2009 but statistically equivalent to percentages measured in other years) (Fig. 13, pg. 15). MORE PEOPLE HAVE NO SAVINGS AT ALL: An increased percentage of workers report they have virtually no savings and investments. Among RCS workers providing this type of information, 27 percent say they have less than $1,000 in savings (up from 20 percent in 2009). In total, more than half of workers (54 percent) report that the total value of their household's savings and investments, excluding the value of their primary home and any defined benefit plans, is less than $25,000 (Fig. 14, pg. 16). CLUELESS ABOUT SAVINGS GOALS: Many workers continue to be unaware of how much they need to save for

  14. Confidence as motivational expressions of interest, utility, and other influences: Exploring under-confidence and over-confidence in science students at secondary school

    OpenAIRE

    Sheldrake, Richard

    2016-01-01

    An enhanced understanding of how students’ self-confidence is influenced benefits educational practice and motivational theories. For 1523 students in 12 secondary schools in England, science self-confidence was predicted by various factors: current self-confidence (self-concept) was most strongly predicted by received praise, current grades, and interest in science; self-confidence for future attainment (self-efficacy) was most strongly predicted by current grades and perceived utility of sc...

  15. Science journal editors' views on publication ethics: results of an international survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wager, E; Fiack, S; Graf, C; Robinson, A; Rowlands, I

    2009-06-01

    Breaches of publication ethics such as plagiarism, data fabrication and redundant publication are recognised as forms of research misconduct that can undermine the scientific literature. We surveyed journal editors to determine their views about a range of publication ethics issues. Questionnaire sent to 524 editors-in-chief of Wiley-Blackwell science journals asking about the severity and frequency of 16 ethical issues at their journals, their confidence in handling such issues, and their awareness and use of guidelines. Responses were obtained from 231 editors (44%), of whom 48% edited healthcare journals. The general level of concern about the 16 issues was low, with mean severity scores of 20% of the editors stated that 12 of the 16 items never occurred at their journal. However, 13%-47% did not know the frequency of the problems. Awareness and use of guidelines was generally low. Most editors were unaware of all except other journals' instructions. Most editors of science journals seem not very concerned about publication ethics and believe that misconduct occurs only rarely in their journals. Many editors are unfamiliar with available guidelines but would welcome more guidance or training.

  16. Trafficking in tobacco farm culture: Tobacco companies use of video imagery to undermine health policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otañez, Martin G; Glantz, Stanton A

    2009-05-01

    The cigarette companies and their lobbying organization used tobacco industry-produced films and videos about tobacco farming to support their political, public relations, and public policy goals. Critical discourse analysis shows how tobacco companies utilized film and video imagery and narratives of tobacco farmers and tobacco economies for lobbying politicians and influencing consumers, industry-allied groups, and retail shop owners to oppose tobacco control measures and counter publicity on the health hazards, social problems, and environmental effects of tobacco growing. Imagery and narratives of tobacco farmers, tobacco barns, and agricultural landscapes in industry videos constituted a tobacco industry strategy to construct a corporate vision of tobacco farm culture that privileges the economic benefits of tobacco. The positive discursive representations of tobacco farming ignored actual behavior of tobacco companies to promote relationships of dependency and subordination for tobacco farmers and to contribute to tobacco-related poverty, child labor, and deforestation in tobacco growing countries. While showing tobacco farming as a family and a national tradition and a source of jobs, tobacco companies portrayed tobacco as a tradition to be protected instead of an industry to be regulated and denormalized.

  17. Trafficking in tobacco farm culture: Tobacco companies use of video imagery to undermine health policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otañez, Martin G; Glantz, Stanton A

    2009-01-01

    The cigarette companies and their lobbying organization used tobacco industry-produced films and videos about tobacco farming to support their political, public relations, and public policy goals. Critical discourse analysis shows how tobacco companies utilized film and video imagery and narratives of tobacco farmers and tobacco economies for lobbying politicians and influencing consumers, industry-allied groups, and retail shop owners to oppose tobacco control measures and counter publicity on the health hazards, social problems, and environmental effects of tobacco growing. Imagery and narratives of tobacco farmers, tobacco barns, and agricultural landscapes in industry videos constituted a tobacco industry strategy to construct a corporate vision of tobacco farm culture that privileges the economic benefits of tobacco. The positive discursive representations of tobacco farming ignored actual behavior of tobacco companies to promote relationships of dependency and subordination for tobacco farmers and to contribute to tobacco-related poverty, child labor, and deforestation in tobacco growing countries. While showing tobacco farming as a family and a national tradition and a source of jobs, tobacco companies portrayed tobacco as a tradition to be protected instead of an industry to be regulated and denormalized. PMID:20160936

  18. Confidence building in and through fission and fusion activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toyojiro Fuketa

    1989-01-01

    The peaceful uses of atomic energy are most suitable for achieving worldwide confidence building for the following reasons. (1) In spite of the need for peaceful uses of nuclear energy, the world is facing difficulties in the public perception and acceptance of nuclear works and facilities. (2) The above difficulties are due to many factors, such as the two sides of nuclear energy peaceful and military, the possibility of a large-scale reactor accident, the lack of understanding about radiation and radioactivity, and finally, emotion and egoism. Some of these factors are unique to nuclear-energy, but in other cases of public reactions, there are many facets similar to the above factors. (3) The public concern about safety is at its highest, broadest and severest point ever, coincident with the highest life expectancy in history. Over-precaution and over-protection about certain things may sometimes spoil one's health. Nuclear energy is most definitely suffering from such a trend. As a result, a severe nuclear accident in any country results in severe damage worldwide no manner in what form the real physical effects reach other countries. (4) The huge science and technology efforts required for fission and fusion activities cannot be fully achieved by one country. Explanations of some of the above factors are given. 2 refs

  19. Selected science: an industry campaign to undermine an OSHA hexavalent chromium standard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lurie Peter

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract While exposure to hexavalent chromium (Cr(VI has been associated with increased lung cancer risk for more than 50 years, the chemical is not currently regulated by the U.S. Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA on the basis of its carcinogenicity. The agency was petitioned in 1993 and sued in 1997 and 2002 to lower the workplace Cr(VI exposure limit, resulting in a court order to issue a final standard by February 2006. Faced with the threat of stronger regulation, the chromium industry initiated an effort to challenge the scientific evidence supporting a more protective standard. This effort included the use of "product defense" consultants to conduct post hoc analyses of a publicly-funded study to challenge results viewed unfavorably by the industry. The industry also commissioned a study of the mortality experience of workers at four low-exposure chromium plants, but did not make the results available to OSHA in a timely manner, despite multiple agency requests for precisely these sorts of data. The commissioned study found a statistically significant elevation in lung cancer risk among Cr(VI-exposed workers at levels far below the current standard. This finding changed when the multi-plant cohort was divided into two statistically underpowered components and then published separately. The findings of the first paper published have been used by the chromium industry to attempt to slow OSHA's standard setting process. The second paper was withheld from OSHA until it was accepted for publication in a scientific journal, after the rulemaking record had closed. Studies funded by private sponsors that seek to influence public regulatory proceedings should be subject to the same access and reporting provisions as those applied to publicly funded science. Parties in regulatory proceedings should be required to disclose whether the studies were performed by researchers who had the right to present their findings without the

  20. Leader's opinion priority bounded confidence model for network opinion evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Meixia; Xie, Guangqiang

    2017-08-01

    Aiming at the weight of trust someone given to participate in the interaction in Hegselmann-Krause's type consensus model is the same and virtual social networks among individuals with different level of education, personal influence, etc. For differences between agents, a novelty bounded confidence model was proposed with leader's opinion considered priority. Interaction neighbors can be divided into two kinds. The first kind is made up of "opinion leaders" group, another kind is made up of ordinary people. For different groups to give different weights of trust. We also analyzed the related characteristics of the new model under the symmetrical bounded confidence parameters and combined with the classical HK model were analyzed. Simulation experiment results show that no matter the network size and initial view is subject to uniform distribution or discrete distribution. We can control the "opinion-leader" good change the number of views and values, and even improve the convergence speed. Experiment also found that the choice of "opinion leaders" is not the more the better, the model well explain how the "opinion leader" in the process of the evolution of the public opinion play the role of the leader.

  1. Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Household Spending? The Euro Area Case

    OpenAIRE

    Dion, David Pascal

    2006-01-01

    The following analysis, based on error correction models, suggests that consumer confidence, together with traditional macroeconomic variables, contains a forecasting and explicative power on consumption. By including consumer confidence in a consumption function, consumer confidence releases a significant coefficient. Such a confidence-augmented consumption model provides good forecasting results.

  2. Engineering Student Self-Assessment through Confidence-Based Scoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuen-Reed, Gigi; Reed, Kyle B.

    2015-01-01

    A vital aspect of an answer is the confidence that goes along with it. Misstating the level of confidence one has in the answer can have devastating outcomes. However, confidence assessment is rarely emphasized during typical engineering education. The confidence-based scoring method described in this study encourages students to both think about…

  3. The 2009 Retirement Confidence Survey: economy drives confidence to record lows; many looking to work longer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helman, Ruth; Copeland, Craig; VanDerhei, Jack

    2009-04-01

    RECORD LOW CONFIDENCE LEVELS: Workers who say they are very confident about having enough money for a comfortable retirement this year hit the lowest level in 2009 (13 percent) since the Retirement Confidence Survey started asking the question in 1993, continuing a two-year decline. Retirees also posted a new low in confidence about having a financially secure retirement, with only 20 percent now saying they are very confident (down from 41 percent in 2007). THE ECONOMY, INFLATION, COST OF LIVING ARE THE BIG CONCERNS: Not surprisingly, workers overall who have lost confidence over the past year about affording a comfortable retirement most often cite the recent economic uncertainty, inflation, and the cost of living as primary factors. In addition, certain negative experiences, such as job loss or a pay cut, loss of retirement savings, or an increase in debt, almost always contribute to loss of confidence among those who experience them. RETIREMENT EXPECTATIONS DELAYED: Workers apparently expect to work longer because of the economic downturn: 28 percent of workers in the 2009 RCS say the age at which they expect to retire has changed in the past year. Of those, the vast majority (89 percent) say that they have postponed retirement with the intention of increasing their financial security. Nevertheless, the median (mid-point) worker expects to retire at age 65, with 21 percent planning to push on into their 70s. The median retiree actually retired at age 62, and 47 percent of retirees say they retired sooner than planned. WORKING IN RETIREMENT: More workers are also planning to supplement their income in retirement by working for pay. The percentage of workers planning to work after they retire has increased to 72 percent in 2009 (up from 66 percent in 2007). This compares with 34 percent of retirees who report they actually worked for pay at some time during their retirement. GREATER WORRY ABOUT BASIC AND HEALTH EXPENSES: Workers who say they very confident in

  4. The WEIZMASS spectral library for high-confidence metabolite identification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahaf, Nir; Rogachev, Ilana; Heinig, Uwe; Meir, Sagit; Malitsky, Sergey; Battat, Maor; Wyner, Hilary; Zheng, Shuning; Wehrens, Ron; Aharoni, Asaph

    2016-08-30

    Annotation of metabolites is an essential, yet problematic, aspect of mass spectrometry (MS)-based metabolomics assays. The current repertoire of definitive annotations of metabolite spectra in public MS databases is limited and suffers from lack of chemical and taxonomic diversity. Furthermore, the heterogeneity of the data prevents the development of universally applicable metabolite annotation tools. Here we present a combined experimental and computational platform to advance this key issue in metabolomics. WEIZMASS is a unique reference metabolite spectral library developed from high-resolution MS data acquired from a structurally diverse set of 3,540 plant metabolites. We also present MatchWeiz, a multi-module strategy using a probabilistic approach to match library and experimental data. This strategy allows efficient and high-confidence identification of dozens of metabolites in model and exotic plants, including metabolites not previously reported in plants or found in few plant species to date.

  5. Explicit representation of confidence informs future value-based decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Folke, Tomas; Jacobsen, Catrine; Fleming, Stephen M.

    2016-01-01

    Humans can reflect on decisions and report variable levels of confidence. But why maintain an explicit representation of confidence for choices that have already been made and therefore cannot be undone? Here we show that an explicit representation of confidence is harnessed for subsequent changes...... of mind. Specifically, when confidence is low, participants are more likely to change their minds when the same choice is presented again, an effect that is most pronounced in participants with greater fidelity in their confidence reports. Furthermore, we show that choices reported with high confidence...... of confidence has a positive impact on the quality of future value-based decisions....

  6. The Relationship Between Confidence and Performance Throughout a Competitive Season

    OpenAIRE

    Skinner, Benjiman R.

    2013-01-01

    The importance of understanding how confidence varies across time has been encouraged by sport confidence researchers (Vealey & Chase, 2008). The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between confidence and performance throughout an entire competitive season. Two levels of confidence consistent to team sports were analyzed. Team and coach confidence were collected through the Collective Efficacy Questionnaire for Sport (CEQS) and Coaching Efficacy Scale (CES) respectively. Two...

  7. Eyewitness confidence : the relation between accuracy and confidence in episodic memory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Odinot, Geralda

    2008-01-01

    Many decisions in the legal system are based on eyewitness evidence. It seems to be a matter of common sense that the level of confidence expressed by a witness can be used as a diagnostic tool to discriminate between accurate and inaccurate memories. Contrary to this general belief, the bulk of

  8. Tobacco companies’ efforts to undermine ingredient disclosure: the Massachusetts benchmark study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velicer, Clayton; Aguinaga-Bialous, Stella; Glantz, Stanton

    2015-01-01

    Objectives To assess the Massachusetts Benchmark ‘Study’ (MBS) that the tobacco companies presented to the Massachusetts Department of Public Health (MDPH) in 1999 in response to ingredient disclosure regulations in the state. This case study can inform future ingredient disclosure regulations, including implementation of Articles 9 and 10 of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC). Methods We analysed documents available at http://legacy.library.ucsf.edu to identify internal communications regarding the design and execution of the MBS and internal studies on the relationship between tar, nicotine and carbon monoxide and smoke constituents and reviewed publications that further evaluated data published as part of the MBS. Results The companies conducted extensive studies of cigarette design factors and ingredients that significantly impacted the levels of constituents. While this study asserted that by-brand emissions could be estimated reliably from published tar, nicotine, and carbon monoxide levels, the tobacco companies were well aware that factors beyond tar, nicotine and carbon monoxide influenced levels of constituents included in the study. This severely limited the potential usefulness of the MBS predictor equations. Conclusions Despite promises to provide data that would allow regulators to predict constituent data for all brands on the market, the final MBS results offered no useful predictive information to inform regulators, the scientific community or consumers. When implementing FCTC Articles 9 and 10, regulatory agencies should demand detailed by-brand information on tobacco product constituents and toxin deliveries to users. PMID:26292701

  9. Undermining capitalism - state ownership and the dialectic of control in the British coal industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krieger, J.

    1983-01-01

    The first section of this publication considers state ownership and contradictions of bureaucratic management with regard to the National Coal Board (NCB). Wages policy is discussed in terms of national rationalization, in particular the 1966 National Power Loading Agreement (NPLA). The second section outlines the effects of wage policy and structure upon production and also assesses the effects of work rules which determine organization of labour, division of tasks, norms for co-operation between team and shift groups etc. The third section discusses changes in power and labour relations and demonstrates distinctive regional patterns in the politics of productivity under piece-rate and time-based wage structures. Subsequent sections comprise colliery studies in County Durham and Nottinghamshire. The concluding chapter summarizes the arguments put forward in the preceding sections and discusses the relationship between organizational structure and class power.

  10. The confidence-accuracy relationship for eyewitness identification decisions: Effects of exposure duration, retention interval, and divided attention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palmer, Matthew A; Brewer, Neil; Weber, Nathan; Nagesh, Ambika

    2013-03-01

    Prior research points to a meaningful confidence-accuracy (CA) relationship for positive identification decisions. However, there are theoretical grounds for expecting that different aspects of the CA relationship (calibration, resolution, and over/underconfidence) might be undermined in some circumstances. This research investigated whether the CA relationship for eyewitness identification decisions is affected by three, forensically relevant variables: exposure duration, retention interval, and divided attention at encoding. In Study 1 (N = 986), a field experiment, we examined the effects of exposure duration (5 s vs. 90 s) and retention interval (immediate testing vs. a 1-week delay) on the CA relationship. In Study 2 (N = 502), we examined the effects of attention during encoding on the CA relationship by reanalyzing data from a laboratory experiment in which participants viewed a stimulus video under full or divided attention conditions and then attempted to identify two targets from separate lineups. Across both studies, all three manipulations affected identification accuracy. The central analyses concerned the CA relation for positive identification decisions. For the manipulations of exposure duration and retention interval, overconfidence was greater in the more difficult conditions (shorter exposure; delayed testing) than the easier conditions. Only the exposure duration manipulation influenced resolution (which was better for 5 s than 90 s), and only the retention interval manipulation affected calibration (which was better for immediate testing than delayed testing). In all experimental conditions, accuracy and diagnosticity increased with confidence, particularly at the upper end of the confidence scale. Implications for theory and forensic settings are discussed.

  11. The 2012 Retirement Confidence Survey: job insecurity, debt weigh on retirement confidence, savings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helman, Ruth; Copeland, Craig; VanDerhei, Jack

    2012-03-01

    Americans' confidence in their ability to retire comfortably is stagnant at historically low levels. Just 14 percent are very confident they will have enough money to live comfortably in retirement (statistically equivalent to the low of 13 percent measured in 2011 and 2009). Employment insecurity looms large: Forty-two percent identify job uncertainty as the most pressing financial issue facing most Americans today. Worker confidence about having enough money to pay for medical expenses and long-term care expenses in retirement remains well below their confidence levels for paying basic expenses. Many workers report they have virtually no savings and investments. In total, 60 percent of workers report that the total value of their household's savings and investments, excluding the value of their primary home and any defined benefit plans, is less than $25,000. Twenty-five percent of workers in the 2012 Retirement Confidence Survey say the age at which they expect to retire has changed in the past year. In 1991, 11 percent of workers said they expected to retire after age 65, and by 2012 that has grown to 37 percent. Regardless of those retirement age expectations, and consistent with prior RCS findings, half of current retirees surveyed say they left the work force unexpectedly due to health problems, disability, or changes at their employer, such as downsizing or closure. Those already in retirement tend to express higher levels of confidence than current workers about several key financial aspects of retirement. Retirees report they are significantly more reliant on Social Security as a major source of their retirement income than current workers expect to be. Although 56 percent of workers expect to receive benefits from a defined benefit plan in retirement, only 33 percent report that they and/or their spouse currently have such a benefit with a current or previous employer. More than half of workers (56 percent) report they and/or their spouse have not tried

  12. Simulation Suggests that medical group mergers won't undermine the potential utility of health information exchanges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudin, Robert S; Schneider, Eric C; Volk, Lynn A; Szolovits, Peter; Salzberg, Claudia A; Simon, Steven R; Bates, David W

    2012-03-01

    Federal and state agencies are investing substantial resources in the creation of community health information exchanges, which are consortia that enable independent health care organizations to exchange clinical data. However, under pressure to form accountable care organizations, medical groups may merge and support private health information exchanges. Such activity could reduce the potential utility of community exchanges-that is, the exchanges' capacity to share patient data across hospitals and physician practices that are independent. Simulations of care transitions based on data from ten Massachusetts communities suggest that there would have to be many such mergers to undermine the potential utility of health information exchanges. At the same time, because hospitals and the largest medical groups account for only 10-20 percent of care transitions in a community, information exchanges will still need to recruit a large proportion of the medical groups in a given community for the exchanges to maintain their usefulness in fostering information exchange across independent providers.

  13. High temperature and temperature variation undermine future disease susceptibility in a population of the invasive garden ant Lasius neglectus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pamminger, Tobias; Steier, Thomas; Tragust, Simon

    2016-06-01

    Environmental temperature and temperature variation can have strong effects on the outcome of host-parasite interactions. Whilst such effects have been reported for different host systems, long-term consequences of pre-infection temperatures on host susceptibility and immunity remain understudied. Here, we show that experiencing both a biologically relevant increase in temperature and temperature variation undermines future disease susceptibility of the invasive garden ant Lasius neglectus when challenged with a pathogen under a constant temperature regime. In light of the economic and ecological importance of many social insects, our results emphasise the necessity to take the hosts' temperature history into account when studying host-parasite interactions under both natural and laboratory conditions, especially in the face of global change.

  14. On the psychological barriers to the workplace: when and why metastereotyping undermines employability beliefs of women and ethnic minorities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owuamalam, Chuma Kevin; Zagefka, Hanna

    2014-10-01

    We investigated the effect of how one might expect one's group to be viewed by a dominant outgroup (i.e., metastereotypes) on employability beliefs of members of disadvantaged groups. Based on the extensive literature on stereotype threat, we hypothesized that activating negative metastereotypes would undermine employability beliefs of members of disadvantaged groups, because such beliefs are likely to threaten their state self-esteem. In particular, we expected that an effect of negative metastereotyping on employability beliefs would be explained by momentary self-doubts and be particularly evident among members whose dispositional self-esteem is high rather than low to begin with. Taken jointly, results from a correlational study (n = 80) and an experimental study (n = 56) supported these hypotheses, and discussion focuses on their implications for mobility into the workplace. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved).

  15. Parallel pocket incision: Less invasive surgical intervention for the treatment of intractable pressure ulcer with wound edge undermining.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamamoto, Takumi; Yoshimatsu, Hidehiko; Hayashi, Akitatsu; Koshima, Isao

    2015-10-01

    The treatment of deep pressure ulcer with a wide wound edge undermining (pocket) is challenging, especially when conservative treatments are ineffective. As most patients with a pressure ulcer suffer from systemic comorbidities, invasive surgery cannot be performed on all patients, and less invasive treatment is required. Less invasive surgical intervention to a deep pressure ulcer, parallel pocket incision (PPI), was performed on 10 patients with intractable pressure ulcers with a pocket formation. In PPI procedures, two parallel skin incisions were made to open up the deepest fold of the pocket and to preserve the skin overlying the pocket lesion; through the created incisions, the necrotic tissues around the deepest fold of the undermining could be easily removed, which facilitated spontaneous wound healing. Postoperative results and complications were evaluated. All PPI procedures were safely performed under local infiltration anesthesia without major postoperative complication; minor bleeding was seen intraoperatively in three patients, which could be easily controlled with electric cautery coagulation. Nine of 10 ulcers were cured after PPI, and one could not be followed up due to the patient's death non-related to the pressure ulcer. For the nine cured patients, the average time for cure was 14.9 weeks, and no recurrence was observed at postoperative 6 months. PPI is a simple, technically easy, and less invasive surgical intervention to an intractable pressure ulcer with a pocket, which can be safely performed under local infiltration anesthesia even on a patient with severe systemic comorbidities. Copyright © 2015 British Association of Plastic, Reconstructive and Aesthetic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Abdominoplasty with suction undermining and plication of the superficial fascia without drains: a report of 113 consecutive patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodby, Katherine A; Stepniak, Jennifer; Eisenhut, Natalie; Lentz, Carl W

    2011-10-01

    Postoperative abdominoplasty seromas are a problem. Although drains are still commonly used during the initial postoperative period, this article has demonstrated that the combination of an extended incision, suction undermining, and progressive tension sutures can produce superior results without the need for suction drains. A retrospective review of 113 consecutive abdominoplasty patients operated on between April of 2004 and May of 2010 was carried out and complications were reviewed. There were 109 women and four men, with ages spanning 23 to 76 years (average, 50 years). Complications of the surgery included hematoma (2.7 percent), with one requiring drain placement (0.9 percent) and two treated with needle aspiration (1.8 percent); seroma (8.8 percent), with four requiring closed suction drainage (3.5 percent) and six minimally treated with needle aspiration (5.3 percent); infection (2.7 percent), with one requiring intravenous antibiotics (0.9 percent) and two with minimal local erythema (1.8 percent); and minimal marginal skin necrosis with spontaneous healing (3.5 percent). The technique of abdominoplasty with the addition of an extended incision, liposuction undermining of the deep fatty tissue between the superficial and abdominal muscle fascia, and the use of progressive tension sutures results in a better abdominal wall and waist contour. This decreases the need for dissection of the abdominal panniculus above the umbilicus except for a small tunnel to allow for the suturing of the rectus abdominis muscles. This allows for preservation of the arterial and lymphatic vessels, improving blood flow to the superior flap and decreasing seroma formation to the point where operative drains are not required. Therapeutic, IV.

  17. Confidence Intervals from Normalized Data: A correction to Cousineau (2005

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard D. Morey

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Presenting confidence intervals around means is a common method of expressing uncertainty in data. Loftus and Masson (1994 describe confidence intervals for means in within-subjects designs. These confidence intervals are based on the ANOVA mean squared error. Cousineau (2005 presents an alternative to the Loftus and Masson method, but his method produces confidence intervals that are smaller than those of Loftus and Masson. I show why this is the case and offer a simple correction that makes the expected size of Cousineau confidence intervals the same as that of Loftus and Masson confidence intervals.

  18. Learning about confidence intervals with software R

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gariela Gonçalves

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available 0 0 1 202 1111 USAL 9 2 1311 14.0 Normal 0 21 false false false ES JA X-NONE /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Tabla normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0cm; mso-para-margin-right:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0cm; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-ansi-language:ES; mso-fareast-language:EN-US;} This work was to study the feasibility of implementing a teaching method that employs software, in a Computational Mathematics course, involving students and teachers through the use of the statistical software R in carrying out practical work, such as strengthening the traditional teaching. The statistical inference, namely the determination of confidence intervals, was the content selected for this experience. It was intended show, first of all, that it is possible to promote, through the proposal methodology, the acquisition of basic skills in statistical inference and to promote the positive relationships between teachers and students. It presents also a comparative study between the methodologies used and their quantitative and qualitative results on two consecutive school years, in several indicators. The data used in the study were obtained from the students to the exam questions in the years 2010/2011 and 2011/2012, from the achievement of a working group in 2011/2012 and via the responses to a questionnaire (optional and anonymous also applied in 2011 / 2012. In terms of results, we emphasize a better performance of students in the examination questions in 2011/2012, the year that students used the software R, and a very favorable student’s perspective about

  19. Forum of stakeholder confidence - Phase II of program of work

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Le Bars, Yves

    2006-01-01

    The author welcomed the Forum for Stakeholder Confidence (FSC) participants and introduced the day's meetings that would investigate the possible contributions and conditions for RD and D to support stakeholder confidence. In his introductory remarks, Mr. Le Bars reviewed the intent of this topical discussion and its contribution to the Phase 2 Programme of Work for FSC. Observations were drawn from previous FSC work concerning the evolving requirements for stakeholder involvement that require a new culture within the organizations. It is recognized that each actor must respect certain values and abilities, and have the capacity to communicate, to learn from the public and to adapt. In particular, it was suggested that the role of the expert in the decision-making process has changed, and there is a need to restore credibility to the voice of experts to support the processes relating to radioactive waste management. Mr. Le Bars spoke about the changing role of the 'expert' and increasing demands from the public to be informed, active participants in decision-making processes. As societal expectations have evolved over the years, there is less willingness to give the expert the legitimacy to decide, or the expert working solely with the decision-maker. Rather, there are growing demands for public policies to be defined and implemented through decision-making processes that also invite stakeholder participation, as another important category of actors. Thus, the decision-making process can be viewed as now involving three parties: the public, the experts and decision-makers. Research must be positioned in this context. Research must be part of the process, structure, behaviour and debate. It is meant to be introduced in the process as contributor to the project definition, by providing scientific background. Further, it is best undertaken through an adaptive behaviour, carried out by institutions with a clearly defined and communicated role. In setting

  20. Interventions targeting child undernutrition in developing countries may be undermined by dietary exposure to aflatoxin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Sinead; Gong, Yun Yun; Routledge, Michael

    2017-06-13

    Child undernutrition, a form of malnutrition, is a major public health burden in developing countries. Supplementation interventions targeting the major micronutrient deficiencies have only reduced the burden of child undernutrition to a certain extent, indicating that there are other underlying determinants that need to be addressed. Aflatoxin exposure, which is also highly prevalent in developing countries, may be considered an aggravating factor for child undernutrition. Increasing evidence suggests that aflatoxin exposure can occur in any stage of life, including in utero through a trans-placental pathway and in early childhood (through contaminated weaning food and family food). Early life exposure to aflatoxin is associated with adverse effects on low birth weight, stunting, immune suppression, and the liver function damage. The mechanisms underlying impaired growth and aflatoxin exposure are still unclear but intestinal function damage, reduced immune function, and alteration in the insulin-like growth factor axis caused by the liver damage are the suggested hypotheses. Given the fact that both aflatoxin and child undernutrition are common in sub-Saharan Africa, effective interventions aimed at reducing undernutrition cannot be satisfactorily achieved until the interactive relationship between aflatoxin and child undernutrition is clearly understood, and an aflatoxin mitigation strategy takes effect in those vulnerable mothers and children.

  1. Challenging the Cancer Molecular Stratification Dogma: Intratumoral Heterogeneity Undermines Consensus Molecular Subtypes and Potential Diagnostic Value in Colorectal Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunne, Philip D; McArt, Darragh G; Bradley, Conor A; O'Reilly, Paul G; Barrett, Helen L; Cummins, Robert; O'Grady, Tony; Arthur, Ken; Loughrey, Maurice B; Allen, Wendy L; McDade, Simon S; Waugh, David J; Hamilton, Peter W; Longley, Daniel B; Kay, Elaine W; Johnston, Patrick G; Lawler, Mark; Salto-Tellez, Manuel; Van Schaeybroeck, Sandra

    2016-08-15

    A number of independent gene expression profiling studies have identified transcriptional subtypes in colorectal cancer with potential diagnostic utility, culminating in publication of a colorectal cancer Consensus Molecular Subtype classification. The worst prognostic subtype has been defined by genes associated with stem-like biology. Recently, it has been shown that the majority of genes associated with this poor prognostic group are stromal derived. We investigated the potential for tumor misclassification into multiple diagnostic subgroups based on tumoral region sampled. We performed multiregion tissue RNA extraction/transcriptomic analysis using colorectal-specific arrays on invasive front, central tumor, and lymph node regions selected from tissue samples from 25 colorectal cancer patients. We identified a consensus 30-gene list, which represents the intratumoral heterogeneity within a cohort of primary colorectal cancer tumors. Using a series of online datasets, we showed that this gene list displays prognostic potential HR = 2.914 (confidence interval 0.9286-9.162) in stage II/III colorectal cancer patients, but in addition, we demonstrated that these genes are stromal derived, challenging the assumption that poor prognosis tumors with stem-like biology have undergone a widespread epithelial-mesenchymal transition. Most importantly, we showed that patients can be simultaneously classified into multiple diagnostically relevant subgroups based purely on the tumoral region analyzed. Gene expression profiles derived from the nonmalignant stromal region can influence assignment of colorectal cancer transcriptional subtypes, questioning the current molecular classification dogma and highlighting the need to consider pathology sampling region and degree of stromal infiltration when employing transcription-based classifiers to underpin clinical decision making in colorectal cancer. Clin Cancer Res; 22(16); 4095-104. ©2016 AACRSee related commentary by Morris and

  2. Comparison of asymptotic confidence sets for regression in small samples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolobkov, Dmitry; Demin, Oleg; Metelkin, Evgeny

    2016-01-01

    In case of small samples, asymptotic confidence sets may be inaccurate, with their actual coverage probability far from a nominal confidence level. In a single framework, we consider four popular asymptotic methods of confidence estimation. These methods are based on model linearization, F-test, likelihood ratio test, and nonparametric bootstrapping procedure. Next, we apply each of these methods to derive three types of confidence sets: confidence intervals, confidence regions, and pointwise confidence bands. Finally, to estimate the actual coverage of these confidence sets, we conduct a simulation study on three regression problems. A linear model and nonlinear Hill and Gompertz models are tested in conditions of different sample size and experimental noise. The simulation study comprises calculation of the actual coverage of confidence sets over pseudo-experimental datasets for each model. For confidence intervals, such metrics as width and simultaneous coverage are also considered. Our comparison shows that the F-test and linearization methods are the most suitable for the construction of confidence intervals, the F-test - for confidence regions and the linearization - for pointwise confidence bands.

  3. Sources of sport confidence, imagery type and performance among competitive athletes: the mediating role of sports confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, A R; Perry, J; Nicholls, A R; Larkin, D; Davies, J

    2015-01-01

    This study explored the mediating role of sport confidence upon (1) sources of sport confidence-performance relationship and (2) imagery-performance relationship. Participants were 157 competitive athletes who completed state measures of confidence level/sources, imagery type and performance within one hour after competition. Among the current sample, confirmatory factor analysis revealed appropriate support for the nine-factor SSCQ and the five-factor SIQ. Mediational analysis revealed that sport confidence had a mediating influence upon the achievement source of confidence-performance relationship. In addition, both cognitive and motivational imagery types were found to be important sources of confidence, as sport confidence mediated imagery type- performance relationship. Findings indicated that athletes who construed confidence from their own achievements and report multiple images on a more frequent basis are likely to benefit from enhanced levels of state sport confidence and subsequent performance.

  4. Exploring midwives' perception of confidence around facilitating water birth in Western Australia: A qualitative descriptive study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholls, Sarah; Hauck, Yvonne L; Bayes, Sarah; Butt, Janice

    2016-02-01

    the option of labouring and/or birthing immersed in warm water has become widely available throughout hospitals in the United Kingdom and Europe over the last two decades. The practice, which also occurs in New Zealand and interstate in Australia, has until recently only been available in Western Australia for women birthing at home with a small publically funded Community Midwifery Program. Despite its popularity and acceptance elsewhere, birth in water has only recently become an option for women attending some public health services in Western Australia. The Clinical Guidelines developed for the local context that support water birth require that the midwives be confident and competent to care for these women. The issue of competency can be addressed with relative ease by maternity care providers; however confidence is rather more difficult to teach, foster and attain. Clinical confidence is an integral element of clinical judgement and promotes patient safety and comfort. For this reason confident midwives are an essential requirement to support the option of water birth in Western Australia. The aim of this study was to capture midwives' perceptions of becoming and being confident in conducting water birth in addition to factors perceived to inhibit and facilitate the development of that confidence. a modified grounded theory methodology with thematic analysis. four public maternity services offering the option of water birth in the Perth metropolitan area. registered midwives employed at one of the four publicly funded maternity services that offered the option of water birth between June 2011 and June 2013. Sixteen midwives were interviewed on a one to one basis. An additional 10 midwives participated in a focus group interview. three main categories emerged from the data analysis: what came before the journey, becoming confident - the journey and staying confident. Each contained between three and five subcategories. Together they depicted how midwives

  5. Building confidence in nuclear waste regulation: how NRC is adapting in response to stakeholder concerns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kotra, Janet P.

    2004-01-01

    Increasing public confidence in the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission as an effective and independent regulator is an explicit goal of the Agency. When developing new, site-specific regulations for the proposed geologic repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, NRC sought to improve its efforts to inform and involve the public in NRC's decision-making process. To this end, NRC has made, and continues to make significant organizational, process and policy changes. NRC successfully applied these changes as it completed final regulations for Yucca Mountain, when introducing a draft license review plan for public comment, and when responding to public requests for information on NRC's licensing and hearing process. It should be understood, however, that these changes emerged, and continue to be applied, in the context of evolving agency concern for increasing stakeholder confidence reflected in institutional changes within the agency as a whole. (author)

  6. Mathematical Foundations for a Theory of Confidence Structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balch, Michael Scott

    2012-01-01

    This paper introduces a new mathematical object: the confidence structure. A confidence structure represents inferential uncertainty in an unknown parameter by defining a belief function whose output is commensurate with Neyman-Pearson confidence. Confidence structures on a group of input variables can be propagated through a function to obtain a valid confidence structure on the output of that function. The theory of confidence structures is created by enhancing the extant theory of confidence distributions with the mathematical generality of Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. Mathematical proofs grounded in random set theory demonstrate the operative properties of confidence structures. The result is a new theory which achieves the holistic goals of Bayesian inference while maintaining the empirical rigor of frequentist inference. PMID:25190904

  7. Assessing Residents' Confidence in the Context of Pharmacotherapy Competence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rakofsky, Jeffrey J; Garlow, Steven J; Haroon, Ebrahim; Hermida, Adriana P; Young, John Q; Dunlop, Boadie W

    2017-06-01

    We aimed to determine whether residents' confidence initiating medications increased with the number of times they prescribed individual medications and to quantify the relationship between prescription frequency and gains in confidence. From July 2011 to June 2014, PGY-3 residents completed a survey of confidence levels at their psychopharmacology clinic orientation and then again 12 months later. The Emory Healthcare electronic medical record was used to identify all medications prescribed by each resident during their 12-month rotation and the frequency of these prescriptions. Confidence in initiating treatment with all medicines/medication classes increased over the 12-month period. For three of the medication classes for which residents indicated they were least confident at orientation, the number of prescriptions written during the year was significantly associated with an increase in confidence. Measuring resident confidence is a relevant and achievable outcome and provides data for educators regarding the amount of experience needed to increase confidence.

  8. Alternative confidence measure for local matching stereo algorithms

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Ndhlovu, T

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available by analyzing the correlation curve produced during the matching process. The authors also test the confidence measure by developing an easily parallelized local matching algorithm, and use our confidence measure to filter out unreliable disparity estimates...

  9. Energy price dispute - companies are confident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marcan, P.; Slovak, P.

    2007-01-01

    Energy prices stipulated for 2003 were not compliant with the valid legislation. The Constitutional Court has repeatedly confirmed this fact. The dispute between several Slovak companies and the state will address the damage caused by illegal actions taken by the public authority, including loss of profit. A group of claimants represented by the Club 500 association is claiming up to 2 bil. Sk (57.97 mil. EUR) as compensation for the mistake made by the Office for Regulation of Network Industries (URSO), including the unclear calculation of the lost profit of companies. It will be up to the courts to decide whether the price deregulation really caused damage to the companies or whether they just took advantage of the faulty legislation.The companies base their claims on a decision of the Constitutional Court. Last year the Court twice announced that the 2003 energy prices were not compliant with valid legislation. At that time, Slovakia lacked a generally binding regulation that should have been in place according to the Act on Regulation of Network Industries. Currently, the role of these missing regulations has been taken over by URSO decrees. These stipulate justified costs and adequate profit of energy suppliers. The regulator had such a decree prepared at the end of 2002, but due to material stipulations and time constraints it did not publish it. (authors)

  10. South African propaganda agencies and the battle for public opinion ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    South Africa's entry into the Second World War in 1939 was complex. The Smuts government lacked nation-wide support and experienced hostile reactions from opponents of its war policy. It was also subjected to Nazi propaganda offensives, which intensified national divisions and undermined public morale. In response ...

  11. 7 CFR 97.18 - Applications handled in confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Applications handled in confidence. 97.18 Section 97.18 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING... confidence. (a) Pending applications shall be handled in confidence. Except as provided below, no information...

  12. 78 FR 56621 - Draft Waste Confidence Generic Environmental Impact Statement

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-13

    ...-2012-0246] RIN 3150-AJ20 Draft Waste Confidence Generic Environmental Impact Statement AGENCY: Nuclear... generic environmental impact statement (DGEIS), NUREG-2157, ``Waste Confidence Generic Environmental... licensed life for operation and prior to ultimate disposal (proposed Waste Confidence rule). The NRC staff...

  13. 21 CFR 26.37 - Confidence building activities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Confidence building activities. 26.37 Section 26... COMMUNITY Specific Sector Provisions for Medical Devices § 26.37 Confidence building activities. (a) At the beginning of the transitional period, the Joint Sectoral Group will establish a joint confidence building...

  14. 37 CFR 1.14 - Patent applications preserved in confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... in confidence. 1.14 Section 1.14 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights UNITED STATES PATENT AND... Records and Files of the Patent and Trademark Office § 1.14 Patent applications preserved in confidence... published under 35 U.S.C. 122(b) are generally preserved in confidence pursuant to 35 U.S.C. 122(a...

  15. Opinion formation with time-varying bounded confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, YunHong; Liu, QiPeng; Zhang, SiYing

    2017-01-01

    When individuals in social groups communicate with one another and are under the influence of neighbors' opinions, they typically revise their own opinions to adapt to such peer opinions. The individual threshold of bounded confidence will thus be affected by both a change in individual confidence and by neighbor influence. Individuals thus update their own opinions with new bounded confidence, while their updated opinions also influence their neighbors' opinions. Based on this reasoned factual assumption, we propose an opinion dynamics model with time-varying bounded confidence. A directed network is formed by the rule of the individual bounded confidence threshold. The threshold of individual bounded confidence involves both confidence variation and the in/out degree of the individual node. When the confidence variation is greater, an individual's confidence in persisting in his own opinion in interactions is weaker, and the individual is more likely to adopt neighbors' opinions. In networks, the in/out degree is determined by individual neighbors. Our main research involves the process of opinion evolution and the basic laws of opinion cluster formation. Group opinions converge exponentially to consensus with stable neighbors. An individual opinion evolution is determined by the average neighbor opinion effect strength. We also explore the conditions involved in forming a stable neighbor relationship and the influence of the confidence variation in the convergence of the threshold of bounded confidence. The results show that the influence on opinion evolution is greater with increased confidence variation.

  16. Contrasting Academic Behavioural Confidence in Mexican and European Psychology Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ochoa, Alma Rosa Aguila; Sander, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Introduction: Research with the Academic Behavioural Confidence scale using European students has shown that students have high levels of confidence in their academic abilities. It is generally accepted that people in more collectivist cultures have more realistic confidence levels in contrast to the overconfidence seen in individualistic European…

  17. Minimizing Disparities and Developing Support by Identifying Differences in Confidence and Knowledge Related to Water Issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Melissa; Lamm, Alexa J.

    2016-01-01

    Extension educators face challenges as they strive to keep up with critical issues in their communities, such as those surrounding water. A growing population and a diminishing water supply necessitate that Florida residents become more knowledgeable about water issues. We conducted research to determine how confident both the general public and…

  18. The Effect of Ethnic Identity and Bilingual Confidence on Chinese Youth's Self-Esteem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jennifer Wen-shya

    2008-01-01

    This study examines the interrelated issues of private and public domains of self-esteem, ethnic identity formation, and bilingual confidence among youth of a minority group in a city in western Canada. One hundred, ten Chinese students aged 11-18 from a Chinese-language school were randomly surveyed. Most items of the instrument are derived from…

  19. The State of Vaccine Confidence 2016: Global Insights Through a 67-Country Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heidi J. Larson, PhD

    2016-10-01

    Conclusions: Regular monitoring of vaccine attitudes – coupled with monitoring of local immunization rates – at the national and sub-national levels can identify populations with declining confidence and acceptance. These populations should be prioritized to further investigate the drivers of negative sentiment and to inform appropriate interventions to prevent adverse public health outcomes.

  20. Cross‐cultural adaptation and validation of the Karitane Parenting Confidence Scale of maternal confidence assessment for use in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lívia W. Pereira

    2018-03-01

    Conclusion: The transcultural adaptation and validation of the confidence maternal questionnaire into Brazilian Portuguese language and culture showed good reliability for this sample. The results of its use demonstrated that maternal confidence was associated with schooling, age and parity.

  1. On randomized confidence intervals for the binomial probability

    OpenAIRE

    Kabaila, Paul

    2013-01-01

    Suppose that X_1,X_2,...,X_n are independent and identically Bernoulli(theta) distributed. Also suppose that our aim is to find an exact confidence interval for theta that is the intersection of a 1-\\alpha/2 upper confidence interval and a 1-\\alpha/2 lower confidence interval. The Clopper-Pearson interval is the standard such confidence interval for theta, which is widely used in practice. We consider the randomized confidence interval of Stevens, 1950 and present some extensions, including p...

  2. Feature Augmentation for Learning Confidence Measure in Stereo Matching.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sunok; Min, Dongbo; Kim, Seungryong; Sohn, Kwanghoon

    2017-09-08

    Confidence estimation is essential for refining stereo matching results through a post-processing step. This problem has recently been studied using a learning-based approach, which demonstrates a substantial improvement on conventional simple non-learning based methods. However, the formulation of learning-based methods that individually estimates the confidence of each pixel disregards spatial coherency that might exist in the confidence map, thus providing a limited performance under challenging conditions. Our key observation is that the confidence features and resulting confidence maps are smoothly varying in the spatial domain, and highly correlated within the local regions of an image. We present a new approach that imposes spatial consistency on the confidence estimation. Specifically, a set of robust confidence features is extracted from each superpixel decomposed using the Gaussian mixture model (GMM), and then these features are concatenated with pixel-level confidence features. The features are then enhanced through adaptive filtering in the feature domain. In addition, the resulting confidence map, estimated using the confidence features with a random regression forest, is further improved through K-nearest neighbor (K-NN) based aggregation scheme on both pixel-and superpixel-level. To validate the proposed confidence estimation scheme, we employ cost modulation or ground control points (GCPs) based optimization in stereo matching. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms state-of-the-art approaches on various benchmarks including challenging outdoor scenes.

  3. Individual consistency in the accuracy and distribution of confidence judgments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ais, Joaquín; Zylberberg, Ariel; Barttfeld, Pablo; Sigman, Mariano

    2016-01-01

    We examine which aspects of the confidence distributions - its shape, its bias toward higher or lower values, and its ability to distinguish correct from erred trials - are idiosyncratic of the who (individual specificity), the when (variability across days) and the what (task specificity). Measuring confidence across different sessions of four different perceptual tasks we show that: (1) Confidence distributions are virtually identical when measured in different days for the same subject and the same task, constituting a subjective fingerprint, (2) The capacity of confidence reports to distinguish correct from incorrect responses is only modestly (but significantly) correlated when compared across tasks, (3) Confidence distributions are very similar for tasks that involve different sensory modalities but have similar structure, (4) Confidence accuracy is independent of the mean and width of the confidence distribution, (5) The mean of the confidence distribution (an individual's confidence bias) constitutes the most efficient indicator to infer a subject's identity from confidence reports and (6) Confidence bias measured in simple perceptual decisions correlates with an individual's optimism bias measured with standard questionnaire. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Mother's level of confidence in caring for her late preterm infant: A mixed methods study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Premji, Shahirose S; Pana, Gianella; Currie, Genevieve; Dosani, Aliyah; Reilly, Sandra; Young, Marilyn; Hall, Marc; Williamson, Tyler; Lodha, Abhay K

    2018-03-01

    To examine what it means to be a mother of a late preterm infant including a mother's level of confidence in caring for her late preterm infant over time and the effect of maternal depression of this experience. Little is known about mothers' experiences of caring for their late preterm infants in the community, including their level of confidence and parenting stress within the context of a supported care environment by public health nurses. A mixed methods study, sequential explanatory quantitative and qualitative study. A convenience sample of mothers with LPIs (n = 71) completed questionnaires on maternal confidence (3-4 weeks and 6-8 weeks), parenting stress (6-8 weeks), social support (6-8 weeks) and postpartum depression (6-8 weeks). A purposive sample of mothers (n = 11) underwent in-depth, semi-structured interviews. Maternal confidence decreased from 3-4 weeks-6-8 weeks after delivery, and similar results were found for mothers who reported depressive symptoms. Narratives of the mothers suggested the decrease in maternal confidence over time was influenced by the demanding characteristics of the late preterm infant, the prospect of their rehospitalisation and the mother's reported interactions with public health nurses. Depression had an effect on maternal confidence; that is, the depressed mothers demonstrated less confidence about their caretaking role than the nondepressed mothers at 6-8 weeks. Mothers did not discuss mental health issues, which may reflect the protective effects of social support on emotional instability or an inability to recognise postpartum depression. The confidence of mothers with LPIs decreased over the first 2 months following delivery and being home with their infants. Assisting mothers to meet their personal needs and the needs of their infant should promote maternal skills, which will likely increase maternal confidence related to the care of their late preterm infant. Characteristics of LPIs contributed more to

  5. 'Just a GP': a mixed method study of undermining of general practice as a career choice in the UK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alberti, Hugh; Banner, Kimberley; Collingwood, Helen; Merritt, Kymberlee

    2017-11-03

    Failure to recruit sufficient applicants to general practice (GP) training has been a problem both nationally and internationally for many years and undermining of GP is one possible contributing factor. The aim of our study was to ascertain what comments, both negative and positive, are being made in UK clinical settings to GP trainees about GP and to further explore these comments and their influence on career choice. We conducted a mixed methods study. We surveyed all foundation doctors and GP trainees within one region of Health Education England regarding any comments they experienced relating to a career in GP. We also conducted six focus groups with early GP trainees to discuss any comments that they experienced and whether these comments had any influence on their or others career choice. Positive comments reported by trainees centred around the concept that choosing GP is a positive, family-focused choice which facilities a good work-life balance. Workload was the most common negative comment, alongside the notion of being 'just a GP'; the belief that GP is boring, a waste of training and a second-class career choice. The reasons for and origin of the comments are multifactorial in nature. Thematic analysis of the focus groups identified key factors such as previous exposure to and experience of GP, family members who were GPs, GP role models, demographics of the clinician and referral behaviour. Trainees perceived that negative comments may be discouraging others from choosing GP as a career. Our study demonstrates that negative comments towards GP as a career do exist within clinical settings and are having a potential impact on poor recruitment rates to GP training. We have identified areas in which further negative comments could be prevented by changing perceptions of GP as a career. Additional time spent in GP as undergraduates and postgraduates, and positive GP role models, could particularly benefit recruitment. We recommend that undermining of GP

  6. Effects of confidence and anxiety on flow state in competition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koehn, Stefan

    2013-01-01

    Confidence and anxiety are important variables that underlie the experience of flow in sport. Specifically, research has indicated that confidence displays a positive relationship and anxiety a negative relationship with flow. The aim of this study was to assess potential direct and indirect effects of confidence and anxiety dimensions on flow state in tennis competition. A sample of 59 junior tennis players completed measures of Competitive State Anxiety Inventory-2d and Flow State Scale-2. Following predictive analysis, results showed significant positive correlations between confidence (intensity and direction) and anxiety symptoms (only directional perceptions) with flow state. Standard multiple regression analysis indicated confidence as the only significant predictor of flow. The results confirmed a protective function of confidence against debilitating anxiety interpretations, but there were no significant interaction effects between confidence and anxiety on flow state.

  7. What is 'confidence' and what could affect it?: A qualitative study of mothers who are hesitant about vaccines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendel-Van Alstyne, Judith A; Nowak, Glen J; Aikin, Ann L

    2017-09-09

    Public confidence in immunization is critical to maintaining high vaccine-coverage rates needed to protect individuals and communities from vaccine-preventable diseases. Recent attention has been placed on factors influencing confidence in vaccination in the US and globally, but comprehensive understanding of what drives or hinders confidence in childhood vaccination is yet to be reached. As such, assessing parents' confidence in childhood vaccination and the ways in which educational materials affect confidence is needed. We sought to (1) learn how mothers who are hesitant about vaccination characterize confidence in health-related products for young children, including the recommended vaccines; (2) gain insights on what influences vaccine confidence beliefs; and (3) assess whether short, education materials affect parental confidence in childhood vaccinations. Eight moderator-lead focus groups (n=61), stratified by socioeconomic status, were undertaken with mothers of children 5years of age of less who are hesitant about vaccines. Four of the groups were held in the Philadelphia, PA area and four were held in the San Francisco/Oakland, CA area. Three educational material pairs, each consisting of a 2-3min video and an infographic poster about an immunization-related topic, were reviewed and assessed for influence on confidence. Qualitative data analysis was used to identify overarching themes across the focus groups. Themes, insights, and illustrative quotes were identified and provided for each of the major discussion areas: primary health concerns for young children; confidence beliefs and perceptions, including for recommended vaccines; facilitators and barriers to confidence; and reactions to the educational materials. Results provide helpful insights into how mothers who are hesitant about vaccines perceive confidence in childhood vaccines and health-related products, suggestions for how to improve confidence, and support for the value and use of short

  8. A Public Relations Nightmare: ACLU Class Action Lawsuit Exposes Inaccurate and Inequitable High School Graduation Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Terri N.; Brown, Kathleen M.

    2010-01-01

    Florida's decision to equate a GED to a high school diploma undermines the attempt of No Child Left Behind to close the achievement gap, while infringing on the public's trust. Public trust fosters a culture of systemic equity and social justice, which are necessary for academic excellence (Byrk & Schneider, 2003). Florida's code of ethics for…

  9. Confidence in government and vaccination willingness in the USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mesch, Gustavo S; Schwirian, Kent P

    2015-06-01

    The most recent internationally widespread disease outbreak occurred during the flu season of 2009 and 2010. On April 2009, the first cases of influenza A (H1N1) (Popularly called, Swine Flu) were confirmed in the USA and UK following a novel virus that was first identified in Mexico. As the virus spread rapidly, the risk of morbidity and mortality increased in several countries. In this paper, we rely on the social cognitive theory of risk to assess the willingness of the US public to comply with vaccination and reduce the risk of sickness and death from the flu. We conduct a secondary data analysis of the Pew Research for the People and Press October 2009 and investigate the factors associated with willingness to take the swine flu vaccine (n = 1000). The findings indicate that the decision to take the swine flu vaccination was highly polarized across partisan lines. Controlling for education, income and demographic factors, the likelihood of taking the vaccine was associated with party identification. Individuals that identified themselves as Democrats were more likely to be willing to take the swine vaccine than individuals that identify themselves as Republicans and Independents. Confidence in the ability of the government to deal with the swine flu crisis seems to explain party identification differences in the willingness to take the vaccine. The implications of the findings are discussed. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  10. 'Asking the hard questions': Improving midwifery students' confidence with domestic violence screening in pregnancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Rachel; Wight, Raechel; Homer, Caroline S E

    2018-01-01

    Domestic violence is a global public health issue. Midwives are ideally placed to screen for, and respond to, disclosure of domestic violence. Qualified midwives and midwifery students report a lack of preparedness and low levels of confidence in working with women who disclose domestic violence. This paper reports the findings from an education intervention designed to increase midwifery students' confidence in working with pregnant women who disclose domestic violence. An authentic practice video and associated interactive workshop was developed to bring the 'woman' into the classroom and to provide role-modelling of exemplary midwifery practice in screening for and responding to disclosure of domestic violence. The findings demonstrated that students' confidence increased in a number of target areas, such as responding appropriately to disclosure and assisting women with access to support. Students' confidence increased in areas where responses needed to be individualised as opposed to being able to be scripted. Students appreciated visual demonstration (video of authentic practice) and having the opportunity to practise responding to disclosures through experiential learning. Given the general lack of confidence reported by both midwives and students of midwifery in this area of practice, this strategy may be useful in supporting midwives, students and other health professionals in increasing confidence in working with women who are experiencing domestic violence. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Can the use of urgent care clinics improve access to care without undermining continuity in primary care?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villaseñor, Sally; Krouse, Helene J

    2016-06-01

    There is a niche for urgent care clinics as an alternate source of health care in the United States. This systematic review examines whether the use of urgent care clinics can improve access to care or if these facilities undermine continuity of primary care. Databases used were Cumulative Index for Nursing and Allied Health (CINAHL) and Medical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System Online (MEDLINE). Articles from 2004 to 2014 were searched using keywords-access, barriers, continuity of care, nurse practitioner (NP), urgent care, retail clinic, emergency, and primary care. Urgent care clinics can improve access to care, but may also negatively impact continuity of care, preventative services, and ongoing management of chronic conditions. Barriers to primary care and benefits of urgent care are inversely related. Insufficient knowledge regarding navigation of the healthcare system, perceived urgency of medical need, and deflection of care contribute to use of urgent care over primary care. NPs are frontline healthcare providers essential to developing and maintaining successful communication and collaboration among providers across healthcare settings. In both primary care and urgent care facilities, NPs can ensure continuity of care, decreased healthcare costs, and optimized health outcomes for patients. ©2015 American Association of Nurse Practitioners.

  12. Undermining plastic surgery as a possible option for treating basal cell carcinoma of the forehead.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tchernev, Georgi; Pidakev, Ivan; Lozev, Ilia; Lotti, Torello; Cardoso, Jose Carlos; Patterson, James W

    2017-04-01

    Basal cell carcinoma (BCC) is the most common cutaneous cancer. Although most cases can be cured with simple surgical procedures and are associated with a good prognosis, a minority of BCCs may pose significant therapeutic challenges. This occurs mostly in cases of so-called advanced BCC, which a loosely defined term that encompasses locally advanced lesions and tumors with metastatic spread. Treatment of these cases is often complex and sometimes may need combinations of therapeutic modalities, including surgery, radiotherapy and/or targeted therapy directed towards sonic hedgehog (SHH) signaling pathways, such as vismodegib. We herein present the case of a 74-year-old man presenting with a large basal cell of the forehead evolving for more than 7 years. The patient underwent excision of the lesion with clear surgical margins. Reconstruction of the defect was performed after extensive undermining of the skin allowing subsequent direct closure with a simple suture, which resulted in an acceptable cosmetic outcome. We discuss the potential advantages, disadvantages, and applicability of this relatively simple surgical maneuver in the reconstruction of defects resulting from excision of considerably large cutaneous tumors.

  13. High trait shame undermines the protective effects of prevalence knowledge on state shame following HPV/CIN diagnosis in women

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eisenlohr-Moul, Tory A.; Segerstrom, Suzanne C.; Logue, Christen T.; Studts, Jamie L.

    2017-01-01

    Human papillomavirus (HPV), and the related, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN), are common yet poorly understood physical conditions. The diagnosis of HPV often elicits shame and guilt, which in turn may undermine psychological and physical health. The current study compared shame and guilt responses to diagnosis among two groups: women diagnosed with HPV/CIN and women diagnosed with Epstein–Barr Virus (EBV/IM). Eighty women recently diagnosed with HPV/CIN or EBV/IM completed measures of shame- and guilt-proneness, shame and guilt following diagnosis, and disease knowledge including prevalence estimates (HPV and EBV, respectively). HPV/CIN (vs. EBV/IM) predicted more diagnosis-related shame and guilt. Estimates of high prevalence interacted with diagnosis and shame-proneness to predict diagnosis-related shame. Simple slope analyses indicated that in women with HPV/CIN reporting low-to-average shame-proneness, high prevalence estimates reduced diagnosis-related shame; however, women high in shame-proneness experienced high diagnosis-related shame regardless of more accurate prevalence estimates. Women high in shame-proneness appear to be particularly vulnerable to HPV-related shame even when they are aware that it is very common. PMID:28417294

  14. Chinese Management Research Needs Self-Confidence but not Over-confidence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Xin; Ma, Li

    2018-01-01

    Chinese management research aims to contribute to global management knowledge by offering rigorous and innovative theories and practical recommendations both for managing in China and outside. However, two seemingly opposite directions that researchers are taking could prove detrimental...... Chinese management research is recommended. Specifically, it is recommended that researchers can focus on phenomena salient in China and follow rigorous scientific methods, as illustrated by a few exemplary studies using the Chinese context. In this way, Chinese management research can advance...... to the healthy development of Chinese management research. We argue that the two directions share a common ground that lies in the mindset regarding the confidence in the work on and from China. One direction of simply following the American mainstream on academic rigor demonstrates a lack of self...

  15. "Yes, we can!" review on team confidence in sports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fransen, Katrien; Mertens, Niels; Feltz, Deborah; Boen, Filip

    2017-08-01

    During the last decade, team confidence has received more and more attention in the sport psychology literature. Research has demonstrated that athletes who are more confident in their team's abilities exert more effort, set more challenging goals, are more resilient when facing adversities, and ultimately perform better. This article reviews the existing literature in order to provide more clarity in terms of the conceptualization and the operationalization of team confidence. We thereby distinguish between collective efficacy (i.e., process-oriented team confidence) and team outcome confidence (i.e., outcome-oriented team confidence). In addition, both the sources as well as the outcomes of team confidence will be discussed. Furthermore, we will go deeper into the dispersion of team confidence and we will evaluate the current guidelines on how to measure both types of team confidence. Building upon this base, the article then highlights interesting avenues for future research in order to further improve both our theoretical knowledge on team confidence and its application to the field. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Beyond hypercorrection: remembering corrective feedback for low-confidence errors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffiths, Lauren; Higham, Philip A

    2018-02-01

    Correcting errors based on corrective feedback is essential to successful learning. Previous studies have found that corrections to high-confidence errors are better remembered than low-confidence errors (the hypercorrection effect). The aim of this study was to investigate whether corrections to low-confidence errors can also be successfully retained in some cases. Participants completed an initial multiple-choice test consisting of control, trick and easy general-knowledge questions, rated their confidence after answering each question, and then received immediate corrective feedback. After a short delay, they were given a cued-recall test consisting of the same questions. In two experiments, we found high-confidence errors to control questions were better corrected on the second test compared to low-confidence errors - the typical hypercorrection effect. However, low-confidence errors to trick questions were just as likely to be corrected as high-confidence errors. Most surprisingly, we found that memory for the feedback and original responses, not confidence or surprise, were significant predictors of error correction. We conclude that for some types of material, there is an effortful process of elaboration and problem solving prior to making low-confidence errors that facilitates memory of corrective feedback.

  17. Factors affecting midwives' confidence in intrapartum care: a phenomenological study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bedwell, Carol; McGowan, Linda; Lavender, Tina

    2015-01-01

    midwives are frequently the lead providers of care for women throughout labour and birth. In order to perform their role effectively and provide women with the choices they require midwives need to be confident in their practice. This study explores factors which may affect midwives' confidence in their practice. hermeneutic phenomenology formed the theoretical basis for the study. Prospective longitudinal data collection was completed using diaries and semi-structured interviews. Twelve midwives providing intrapartum care in a variety of settings were recruited to ensure a variety of experiences in different contexts were captured. the principal factor affecting workplace confidence, both positively and negatively, was the influence of colleagues. Perceived autonomy and a sense of familiarity could also enhance confidence. However, conflict in the workplace was a critical factor in reducing midwives' confidence. Confidence was an important, but fragile, phenomenon to midwives and they used a variety of coping strategies, emotional intelligence and presentation management to maintain it. this is the first study to highlight both the factors influencing midwives' workplace confidence and the strategies midwives employed to maintain their confidence. Confidence is important in maintaining well-being and workplace culture may play a role in explaining the current low morale within the midwifery workforce. This may have implications for women's choices and care. Support, effective leadership and education may help midwives develop and sustain a positive sense of confidence. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Disparities in parent confidence managing child weight-related behaviors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phan, Thao-Ly T; Curran, Jennifer L; Abatemarco, Diane J

    2015-01-01

    To describe ethnic disparities in parental confidence managing child weight-related behaviors. This was a cross-sectional survey of 59 parents of children with obesity between 4 and 7 years of age presenting to a tertiary care pediatric weight management clinic. Parents completed a validated measure assessing their confidence managing their child's weight-related behaviors (parent confidence score). Student's t-tests and linear regression analyses were used to determine parent and child characteristics associated with parent confidence score. Families were ethnically diverse with half being of Hispanic ethnicity. Mean parent confidence score was 159 (SD 66) with 71% of parents with parent confidence scores below the clinical cut-off for the measure. Parent confidence score was lower among Hispanic (mean 133, SD 67) compared to non-Hispanic parents (mean 184, SD 55, p confidence score was most strongly associated with parental ethnicity (β = -0.39, p = 0.002, adjusted R(2) = 0.14). Parental confidence managing weight-related behaviors was low among parents of young obese children, especially those of Hispanic ethnicity. This study highlights the need to assess parental confidence in managing weight-related behaviors as part of pediatric obesity care and to provide counseling to improve parental management of weight-related behaviors in a culturally-appropriate manner. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Rebirth of the Nouveau Roman: 9/11 as a Crisis of Confidence in American Literary Aesthetics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Davis Wood

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available This article argues that 9/11 created a crisis of confidence amongst writers of American fiction by problematizing literary realism’s claims to verisimiltude and so undermining it as a plausible and credible mode of fiction. Surveying the post-9/11 debate over the merits and shortcomings of realism, this article suggests that the unlikely beneficiary of this crisis of confidence has been the contemporary nouveau roman, a mode of fiction that originates from within the literary traditions of continental Europe. The emergence of writers, publishers, reviewers, and readers attracted to the nouveau roman as a mode of literature in opposition to realism—and engaged in its production, evaluation, promotion, and dissemination—seems to signify a widespread dissatisfaction with the predominant American literary response to the crisis of 9/11. Providing a brief history of the emergence of this post-9/11 institutional support for the nouveau roman, this article contends that the nouveau roman requires a place in literary histories of post-9/11 American fiction even if it does not explicitly address the subject of 9/11 itself.

  20. R and D versus confidence in a nuclear energy producing country

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Castellnou Barcelo, Josep

    2006-01-01

    The author, Mayor of Vandellos and L'Hospitalet de L'Infant in Spain, addressed the linkages of R and D and stakeholder confidence from the perspective of a mayor. His presentation drew on his experience as mayor of nuclear community in Vandellos and Hospitalet, Spain. The author began by reviewing the economic profile of his community and the chronology of the nuclear program in that area. In discussing factors influencing trust and confidence at the local level, it was noted that safety and security were key, (not negotiable). Economic development and prospects for the future were also seen as important pillars for building public confidence. Cutting across these areas, was a role for R and D and information. It was important to provide information to the public, and to communicate effectively around issues of risk and security. R and D plays a role in supporting these activities to generate confidence. There were active training and education initiatives for elected officials and citizens and other stakeholders, which included local participation in site visits. Education on matters of nuclear energy was provided, seminars and technical visits. The community participated in the COWAM project, to benefit from the exchange of information internationally. In addition, local information committees were created that play an important role in ensuring a flow of information to the general public. The local level has access to experts to support their activities. The presentation profiled the ways in which the municipality retains an active role in overseeing the decommissioning of the local nuclear plant. The presentation reviewed areas in which R and D provided linkages to future well-being of the municipality, through professional training, linkages with universities, promotion of culture and business and economic diversification. Research in social disciplines is found to be important in building confidence of the public

  1. Anomalous Evidence, Confidence Change, and Theory Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hemmerich, Joshua A; Van Voorhis, Kellie; Wiley, Jennifer

    2016-08-01

    A novel experimental paradigm that measured theory change and confidence in participants' theories was used in three experiments to test the effects of anomalous evidence. Experiment 1 varied the amount of anomalous evidence to see if "dose size" made incremental changes in confidence toward theory change. Experiment 2 varied whether anomalous evidence was convergent (of multiple types) or replicating (similar finding repeated). Experiment 3 varied whether participants were provided with an alternative theory that explained the anomalous evidence. All experiments showed that participants' confidence changes were commensurate with the amount of anomalous evidence presented, and that larger decreases in confidence predicted theory changes. Convergent evidence and the presentation of an alternative theory led to larger confidence change. Convergent evidence also caused more theory changes. Even when people do not change theories, factors pertinent to the evidence and alternative theories decrease their confidence in their current theory and move them incrementally closer to theory change. Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  2. Empowerment as Interactions that Generate Self-Confidence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poder, Poul

    2010-01-01

    in empowerment programmes (Dahl 1999: 51; Jacobsen/Thorsvik 2007: 188). However, such programmes are often unsuccessful (Wilson 2004; Edwards/Wajcman 2005), and the processes that lead to effective empowerment have not yet been sufficiently understood (Conger/Kanungo 1988; Eylon 1998: 17). This chapter aims...... – is essential to empowerment. For example, DuBrien advises managers to: ‘Look for evidence of self-confidence in handling past assignments. It takes self-confidence to handle decisions on your own. (Of course, you could argue that being empowered builds self-confidence). Look for at least some past displays...... of self-confidence’ (DuBrien 2000: 228f.). That one should look for past signs of self-confidence indicates that self-confidence in present efforts cannot be taken for granted. Moreover, the suggestion that being formally and structurally empowered builds self-confidence is not self-evident, since...

  3. Can confidence indicators forecast the probability of expansion in Croatia?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirjana Čižmešija

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to investigate how reliable are confidence indicators in forecasting the probability of expansion. We consider three Croatian Business Survey indicators: the Industrial Confidence Indicator (ICI, the Construction Confidence Indicator (BCI and the Retail Trade Confidence Indicator (RTCI. The quarterly data, used in the research, covered the periods from 1999/Q1 to 2014/Q1. Empirical analysis consists of two parts. The non-parametric Bry-Boschan algorithm is used for distinguishing periods of expansion from the period of recession in the Croatian economy. Then, various nonlinear probit models were estimated. The models differ with respect to the regressors (confidence indicators and the time lags. The positive signs of estimated parameters suggest that the probability of expansion increases with an increase in Confidence Indicators. Based on the obtained results, the conclusion is that ICI is the most powerful predictor of the probability of expansion in Croatia.

  4. Confidence mediates the sex difference in mental rotation performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estes, Zachary; Felker, Sydney

    2012-06-01

    On tasks that require the mental rotation of 3-dimensional figures, males typically exhibit higher accuracy than females. Using the most common measure of mental rotation (i.e., the Mental Rotations Test), we investigated whether individual variability in confidence mediates this sex difference in mental rotation performance. In each of four experiments, the sex difference was reliably elicited and eliminated by controlling or manipulating participants' confidence. Specifically, confidence predicted performance within and between sexes (Experiment 1), rendering confidence irrelevant to the task reliably eliminated the sex difference in performance (Experiments 2 and 3), and manipulating confidence significantly affected performance (Experiment 4). Thus, confidence mediates the sex difference in mental rotation performance and hence the sex difference appears to be a difference of performance rather than ability. Results are discussed in relation to other potential mediators and mechanisms, such as gender roles, sex stereotypes, spatial experience, rotation strategies, working memory, and spatial attention.

  5. Confidence bounds for nonlinear dose-response relationships

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baayen, C; Hougaard, P

    2015-01-01

    . It is well known that Wald confidence intervals are based on linear approximations and are often unsatisfactory in nonlinear models. Apart from incorrect coverage rates, they can be unreasonable in the sense that the lower confidence limit of the difference to placebo can be negative, even when an overall...... test shows a significant positive effect. Bootstrap confidence intervals solve many of the problems of the Wald confidence intervals but are computationally intensive and prone to undercoverage for small sample sizes. In this work, we propose a profile likelihood approach to compute confidence...... intervals for the dose-response curve. These confidence bounds have better coverage than Wald intervals and are more precise and generally faster than bootstrap methods. Moreover, if monotonicity is assumed, the profile likelihood approach takes this automatically into account. The approach is illustrated...

  6. Jedi public health: Co-creating an identity-safe culture to promote health equity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arline T. Geronimus

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The extent to which socially-assigned and culturally mediated social identity affects health depends on contingencies of social identity that vary across and within populations in day-to-day life. These contingencies are structurally rooted and health damaging inasmuch as they activate physiological stress responses. They also have adverse effects on cognition and emotion, undermining self-confidence and diminishing academic performance. This impact reduces opportunities for social mobility, while ensuring those who ''beat the odds'' pay a physical price for their positive efforts. Recent applications of social identity theory toward closing racial, ethnic, and gender academic achievement gaps through changing features of educational settings, rather than individual students, have proved fruitful. We sought to integrate this evidence with growing social epidemiological evidence that structurally-rooted biopsychosocial processes have population health effects. We explicate an emergent framework, Jedi Public Health (JPH. JPH focuses on changing features of settings in everyday life, rather than individuals, to promote population health equity, a high priority, yet, elusive national public health objective. We call for an expansion and, in some ways, a re-orienting of efforts to eliminate population health inequity. Policies and interventions to remove and replace discrediting cues in everyday settings hold promise for disrupting the repeated physiological stress process activation that fuels population health inequities with potentially wide application. Keywords: Population health, Health equity, Social identity, Race/ethnicity, LGBTQ, Gender, Stereotype threat, Weathering

  7. Jedi Public Health: Co-creating an Identity-Safe Culture to Promote Health Equity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geronimus, Arline T; James, Sherman A; Destin, Mesmin; Graham, Louis A; Hatzenbuehler, Mark; Murphy, Mary; Pearson, Jay A; Omari, Amel; Thompson, James Phillip

    2016-12-01

    The extent to which socially-assigned and culturally mediated social identity affects health depends on contingencies of social identity that vary across and within populations in day-to-day life. These contingencies are structurally rooted and health damaging inasmuch as they activate physiological stress responses. They also have adverse effects on cognition and emotion, undermining self-confidence and diminishing academic performance. This impact reduces opportunities for social mobility, while ensuring those who "beat the odds" pay a physical price for their positive efforts. Recent applications of social identity theory toward closing racial, ethnic, and gender academic achievement gaps through changing features of educational settings, rather than individual students, have proved fruitful. We sought to integrate this evidence with growing social epidemiological evidence that structurally-rooted biopsychosocial processes have population health effects. We explicate an emergent framework, Jedi Public Health (JPH). JPH focuses on changing features of settings in everyday life, rather than individuals, to promote population health equity, a high priority, yet, elusive national public health objective. We call for an expansion and, in some ways, a re-orienting of efforts to eliminate population health inequity. Policies and interventions to remove and replace discrediting cues in everyday settings hold promise for disrupting the repeated physiological stress process activation that fuels population health inequities with potentially wide application.

  8. Is consumer confidence an indicator of JSE performance?

    OpenAIRE

    Kamini Solanki; Yudhvir Seetharam

    2014-01-01

    While most studies examine the impact of business confidence on market performance, we instead focus on the consumer because consumer spending habits are a natural extension of trading activity on the equity market. This particular study examines investor sentiment as measured by the Consumer Confidence Index in South Africa and its effect on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). We employ Granger causality tests to investigate the relationship across time between the Consumer Confidence Ind...

  9. Uncertainty and confidence from the triple-network perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    White, Thomas P.; Engen, Nina Helkjær; Sørensen, Susan

    2014-01-01

    was consistently observed in the salience (anterior cingulate cortex and insula) and central executive network (dorsolateral prefrontal and posterior parietal cortices) in conditions of increased uncertainty; by contrast, default mode network (midline cortical and medial temporal lobe) regions robustly exhibited...... a positive relationship with subjective confidence. Regions including right parahippocampal gyrus were positively modulated by magnitude across both certainty and confidence judgements. This region was also shown to be more significantly modulated by confidence magnitude as compared with degree...

  10. Confidence measurement in the light of signal detection theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massoni, Sébastien; Gajdos, Thibault; Vergnaud, Jean-Christophe

    2014-01-01

    We compare three alternative methods for eliciting retrospective confidence in the context of a simple perceptual task: the Simple Confidence Rating (a direct report on a numerical scale), the Quadratic Scoring Rule (a post-wagering procedure), and the Matching Probability (MP; a generalization of the no-loss gambling method). We systematically compare the results obtained with these three rules to the theoretical confidence levels that can be inferred from performance in the perceptual task using Signal Detection Theory (SDT). We find that the MP provides better results in that respect. We conclude that MP is particularly well suited for studies of confidence that use SDT as a theoretical framework. PMID:25566135

  11. Cortical alpha activity predicts the confidence in an impending action

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kubanek, Jan; Hill, N. Jeremy; Snyder, Lawrence H.; Schalk, Gerwin

    2015-01-01

    When we make a decision, we experience a degree of confidence that our choice may lead to a desirable outcome. Recent studies in animals have probed the subjective aspects of the choice confidence using confidence-reporting tasks. These studies showed that estimates of the choice confidence substantially modulate neural activity in multiple regions of the brain. Building on these findings, we investigated the neural representation of the confidence in a choice in humans who explicitly reported the confidence in their choice. Subjects performed a perceptual decision task in which they decided between choosing a button press or a saccade while we recorded EEG activity. Following each choice, subjects indicated whether they were sure or unsure about the choice. We found that alpha activity strongly encodes a subject's confidence level in a forthcoming button press choice. The neural effect of the subjects' confidence was independent of the reaction time and independent of the sensory input modeled as a decision variable. Furthermore, the effect is not due to a general cognitive state, such as reward expectation, because the effect was specifically observed during button press choices and not during saccade choices. The neural effect of the confidence in the ensuing button press choice was strong enough that we could predict, from independent single trial neural signals, whether a subject was going to be sure or unsure of an ensuing button press choice. In sum, alpha activity in human cortex provides a window into the commitment to make a hand movement. PMID:26283892

  12. Misinterpreting eyewitness expressions of confidence: The featural justification effect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dodson, Chad S; Dobolyi, David G

    2015-06-01

    How do we know eyewitness statements of confidence are interpreted accurately by others? When eyewitnesses provide a verbal expression of confidence about a lineup identification, such as I'm fairly certain it's him, how well do others understand the intended meaning of this statement of confidence? And, how is this perception of the meaning influenced by justifications of the level of confidence, such as when eyewitnesses say, I remember his chin? The answers to these questions are unknown, as there is no research on how others interpret the intended meaning of eyewitness confidence. Three experiments show that an additional justification of confidence, relative to seeing a confidence statement alone, can increase misunderstanding in others' estimation of the meaning of the expression of confidence. Moreover, this justification-induced increase in misunderstanding only occurs when the justification refers to an observable facial feature and not when it refers to an unobservable quality (e.g., He is very familiar). Even more noteworthy, both Experiments 2 and 3 show that this featural justification effect is strongest when eyewitnesses express absolute certainty in an identification, such as by stating I am positive. When a highly confident assertion is accompanied by a featural justification others will be most likely to misinterpret the intended meaning. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  13. Trust, confidence, and equity affect the legitimacy of natural resource governance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rachel A. Turner

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Social-ecological systems are often highly complex, making effective governance a considerable challenge. In large, heterogeneous systems, hierarchical institutional regimes may be efficient, but effective management outcomes are dependent on stakeholder support. This support is shaped by perceptions of legitimacy, which risks being undermined where resource users are not engaged in decision-making. Although legitimacy is demonstrably critical for effective governance, less is known about the factors contributing to stakeholders' perceptions of legitimacy or how these perceptions are socially differentiated. We quantitatively assessed stakeholder perceptions of legitimacy (indicated by support for rules and their contributory factors among 307 commercial fishers and tourism operators in Australia's Great Barrier Reef Marine Park. Legitimacy was most strongly associated with trust in information from governing bodies, followed by confidence in institutional performance and the equity of management outcomes. Legitimacy differed both within and among resource user groups, which emphasizes the heterogeneous nature of commonly defined stakeholder groups. Overall, tourism operators perceived higher legitimacy than did commercial fishers, which was associated with higher trust in information from management agencies. For fishers, higher levels of trust were associated with: (1 engagement in fisheries that had high subsector cohesion and positive previous experiences of interactions with governing bodies; (2 location in areas with greater proximity to sources of knowledge, resources, and decision-making; and (3 engagement in a Reef Guardian program. These findings highlight the necessity of strategies and processes to build trust among all user groups in large social-ecological systems such as the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park. Furthermore, the social differentiation of perceptions that were observed within user groups underscores the importance of

  14. The Undermining Effect of Facial Attractiveness on Brain Responses to Fairness in Ultimatum Game: An ERP Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qingguo eMa

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available To investigate the time course of the neural processing of facial attractiveness and its influence on fairness consideration during social interactions, event-related potentials (ERP were recorded from 21 male subjects performing a two-person Ultimatum Game (UG. During this bargaining game, the male subjects played responders who decided whether to accept offers from female proposers, whose facial images (grouped as attractive and unattractive were presented prior to the offer presentation. The behavioral data demonstrated that the acceptance ratio increased with the fairness level of the offers and, more importantly, the subjects were more likely to accept unfair offers when presented with the attractive-face condition compared with the unattractive-face condition. The reaction times (RTs for five offers (1:9, 2:8, 3:7, 4:6 and 5:5 in the unattractive-face condition were not significantly different. In contrast, the subjects reacted slower to the attractive proposers’ unfair offers and quicker to fair offers. The ERP analysis of the face presentation demonstrated a decreased early negativity (N2 and enhanced late positive potentials (LPPs elicited by the attractive faces compared with the unattractive faces. In addition, the feedback-related negativity (FRN in response to an offer presentation was not significantly different for the unfair (1:9 and 2:8 and fair (4:6 and 5:5 offers in the attractive-face condition. However, the unfair offers generated larger FRNs compared with the fair offers in the unattractive-face condition (consistent with prior studies. A similar effect was identified for P300. The present study demonstrated an undermining effect of proposer facial attractiveness on responder consideration of offer fairness during the UG.

  15. Deformation analysis of the repeated positional surveys in the undermined localities using web applications and WMS map services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milan Talich

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available The XML web application for on-line calculations of deformation analysis from the repeated positional surveys using Internet service and data is described. Parameters of deformation field (strain tensors, total dilatations are determined in a grid network covering the zone of interest. Displacement vectors from repeated measurements at given points of a geodetic network represent the imput data of calculation. The calculation is based on application of the theory of continuum mechanics and its fundamental prerequisite is homogeneity of the researched territory.The application currently utilizes the Web Map Services - WMS for the graphic presentation of calculated results as GIS. This service for example enables on-line thematic map composition as defined by the user in the window of Internet explorer based on data given by servers of WMS service. Thus the user does not need to own any geographic data to create his/her GIS.Furthermore there are also given application examples of the repeated geodetic surveys used in the field at localities in the forefront of ČSA giant quarry at Komořany and in the undermined territory in Ostrava region. The examples show the independence of calculated values of tensors from rotation and translation of the coordinate systems in practise. This fact gives the evidence that the deformation analysis is more objective dynamic indicator in the researched area and not only the calculus and representation of point displacement vectors. After registration this application is at all interested persons disposal to on-line calculations via the Internet.

  16. ROS-mediated PARP activity undermines mitochondrial function after permeability transition pore opening during myocardial ischemia-reperfusion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schriewer, Jacqueline M; Peek, Clara Bien; Bass, Joseph; Schumacker, Paul T

    2013-04-18

    Ischemia-reperfusion (I/R) studies have implicated oxidant stress, the mitochondrial permeability transition pore (mPTP), and poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase (PARP) as contributing factors in myocardial cell death. However, the interdependence of these factors in the intact, blood-perfused heart is not known. We therefore wanted to determine whether oxidant stress, mPTP opening, and PARP activity contribute to the same death pathway after myocardial I/R. A murine left anterior descending coronary artery (LAD) occlusion (30 minutes) and release (1 to 4 hours) model was employed. Experimental groups included controls and antioxidant-treated, mPTP-inhibited, or PARP-inhibited hearts. Antioxidant treatment prevented oxidative damage, mPTP opening, ATP depletion, and PARP activity, placing oxidant stress as the proximal death trigger. Genetic deletion of cyclophilin D (CypD(-/-)) prevented loss of total NAD(+) and PARP activity, and mPTP-mediated loss of mitochondrial function. Control hearts showed progressive mitochondrial depolarization and loss of ATP from 1.5 to 4 hours of reperfusion, but not outer mitochondrial membrane rupture. Neither genetic deletion of PARP-1 nor its pharmacological inhibition prevented the initial mPTP-mediated depolarization or loss of ATP, but PARP ablation did allow mitochondrial recovery by 4 hours of reperfusion. These results indicate that oxidant stress, the mPTP, and PARP activity contribute to a single death pathway after I/R in the heart. PARP activation undermines cell survival by preventing mitochondrial recovery after mPTP opening early in reperfusion. This suggests that PARP-mediated prolongation of mitochondrial depolarization contributes significantly to cell death via an energetic crisis rather than by mitochondrial outer membrane rupture.

  17. The Metamemory Approach to Confidence: A Test Using Semantic Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brewer, William F.; Sampaio, Cristina

    2012-01-01

    The metamemory approach to memory confidence was extended and elaborated to deal with semantic memory tasks. The metamemory approach assumes that memory confidence is based on the products and processes of a completed memory task, as well as metamemory beliefs that individuals have about how their memory products and processes relate to memory…

  18. An approximate confidence interval for recombination fraction in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    2011-02-14

    Feb 14, 2011 ... proposed a two stage Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method to calculate an approximate confidence interval (ACI) ... Key words: Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), Gibbs sampler, approximate confidence interval, simulation size. ... from local conditional distributions at parameter valuesθ , given the ...

  19. Recognition confidence under violated and confirmed memory expectations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaeger, Antonio; Cox, Justin C; Dobbins, Ian G

    2012-05-01

    Individuals' memory experiences typically covary with those of others' around them, and on average, an item is more likely to be familiar if a companion recommends it as such. Although it would be ideal if observers could use the external recommendations of others' as statistical priors during recognition decisions, it is currently unclear how or if they do so. Furthermore, understanding the sensitivity of recognition judgments to such external cues is critical for understanding memory conformity and eyewitness suggestibility phenomena. To address this we examined recognition accuracy and confidence following cues from an external source (e.g., "Likely Old") that forecast the likely status of upcoming memory probes. Three regularities emerged. First, hit and correct-rejection rates expectedly fell when participants were invalidly versus validly cued. Second, hit confidence was generally higher than correct-rejection confidence, regardless of cue validity. Finally, and most noteworthy, cue validity interacted with judgment confidence such that validity heavily influenced the confidence of correct rejections but had no discernible influence on the confidence of hits. Bootstrap-informed Monte Carlo simulation supported a dual process recognition model under which familiarity and recollection processes counteract to heavily dampen the influence of external cues on average reported confidence. A 3rd experiment tested this model using source memory. As predicted, because source memory is heavily governed by contextual recollection, cue validity again did not affect confidence, although as with recognition it clearly altered accuracy.

  20. Confidence Intervals for Effect Sizes: Applying Bootstrap Resampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banjanovic, Erin S.; Osborne, Jason W.

    2016-01-01

    Confidence intervals for effect sizes (CIES) provide readers with an estimate of the strength of a reported statistic as well as the relative precision of the point estimate. These statistics offer more information and context than null hypothesis statistic testing. Although confidence intervals have been recommended by scholars for many years,…

  1. Confidence Scoring of Speaking Performance: How Does Fuzziness become Exact?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Tan; Mak, Barley; Zhou, Pei

    2012-01-01

    The fuzziness of assessing second language speaking performance raises two difficulties in scoring speaking performance: "indistinction between adjacent levels" and "overlap between scales". To address these two problems, this article proposes a new approach, "confidence scoring", to deal with such fuzziness, leading to "confidence" scores between…

  2. On-line confidence monitoring during decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dotan, Dror; Meyniel, Florent; Dehaene, Stanislas

    2018-02-01

    Humans can readily assess their degree of confidence in their decisions. Two models of confidence computation have been proposed: post hoc computation using post-decision variables and heuristics, versus online computation using continuous assessment of evidence throughout the decision-making process. Here, we arbitrate between these theories by continuously monitoring finger movements during a manual sequential decision-making task. Analysis of finger kinematics indicated that subjects kept separate online records of evidence and confidence: finger deviation continuously reflected the ongoing accumulation of evidence, whereas finger speed continuously reflected the momentary degree of confidence. Furthermore, end-of-trial finger speed predicted the post-decisional subjective confidence rating. These data indicate that confidence is computed on-line, throughout the decision process. Speed-confidence correlations were previously interpreted as a post-decision heuristics, whereby slow decisions decrease subjective confidence, but our results suggest an adaptive mechanism that involves the opposite causality: by slowing down when unconfident, participants gain time to improve their decisions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. True and False Memories, Parietal Cortex, and Confidence Judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urgolites, Zhisen J.; Smith, Christine N.; Squire, Larry R.

    2015-01-01

    Recent studies have asked whether activity in the medial temporal lobe (MTL) and the neocortex can distinguish true memory from false memory. A frequent complication has been that the confidence associated with correct memory judgments (true memory) is typically higher than the confidence associated with incorrect memory judgments (false memory).…

  4. Variance misperception explains illusions of confidence in simple perceptual decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zylberberg, A.; Roelfsema, Pieter R; Sigman, Mariano

    Confidence in a perceptual decision is a judgment about the quality of the sensory evidence. The quality of the evidence depends not only on its strength ('signal') but critically on its reliability ('noise'), but the separate contribution of these quantities to the formation of confidence judgments

  5. Confidence of Extension Staff in Akwa Ibom State Agricultural ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study assessed the organizational confidence of extension staff in Akwa Ibom state agricultural development programme (AKADEP). The study also determined the relationships between selected personal characteristics and organizational confidence variables of the extension staff. A sample of ninety (90) randomly ...

  6. Variance misperception explains illusions of confidence in simple perceptual decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zylberberg, Ariel; Roelfsema, Pieter R.; Sigman, Mariano

    2014-01-01

    Confidence in a perceptual decision is a judgment about the quality of the sensory evidence. The quality of the evidence depends not only on its strength ('signal') but critically on its reliability ('noise'), but the separate contribution of these quantities to the formation of confidence judgments

  7. Recognition confidence under violated and confirmed memory expectations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaeger, Antonio; Cox, Justin C.; Dobbins, Ian G.

    2011-01-01

    Our memory experiences typically covary with those of the others’ around us, and on average, an item is more likely to be familiar than not, if a companion recommends it as such. Although it would be ideal if observers could use the external recommendations of others as statistical priors during recognition decisions, it is currently unclear how or if they do so. Furthermore, understanding the sensitivity of recognition judgments to such external cues is critical for understanding memory conformity and eyewitness suggestibility phenomena. To address this we examined recognition accuracy and confidence following cues from an external source (e.g., “Likely old”) that forecast the likely status of upcoming memory probes. Three regularities emerged. First, hit and correction rejection rates expectedly fell when subjects were invalidly versus validly cued. Second, hit confidence was generally higher than correct rejection confidence, regardless of cue validity. Finally, and most noteworthy, cue validity interacted with judgment confidence such that validity heavily influenced the confidence of correct rejections, but had no discernable influence on the confidence of hits. Bootstrap informed Monte Carlo simulation supported a dual process recognition model under which familiarity and recollection processes counteract to heavily dampen the influence of external cues on average reported confidence. A third experiment tested this model using source memory. As predicted, because source memory is heavily governed by contextual recollection, cue validity again did not affect confidence, although as with recognition, it clearly altered accuracy. PMID:21967231

  8. RIASEC Interest and Confidence Cutoff Scores: Implications for Career Counseling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonitz, Verena S.; Armstrong, Patrick Ian; Larson, Lisa M.

    2010-01-01

    One strategy commonly used to simplify the joint interpretation of interest and confidence inventories is the use of cutoff scores to classify individuals dichotomously as having high or low levels of confidence and interest, respectively. The present study examined the adequacy of cutoff scores currently recommended for the joint interpretation…

  9. Development of Confidence in Child Behavior Management through Role Playing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kress, Gerard C., Jr.; Ehrlichs, Melvin A.

    1990-01-01

    In a preclinical course in pediatric dentistry, 76 students were taught child behavior management through role playing of 7-10 common management situations. Pre- and postcourse measures of student confidence found that, although older students were more confident, all gained significantly from the training. Other student characteristics were also…

  10. Animal Spirits and Extreme Confidence: No Guts, No Glory?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.G. Douwens-Zonneveld (Mariska)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractThis study investigates to what extent extreme confidence of either management or security analysts may impact financial or operating performance. We construct a multidimensional degree of company confidence measure from a wide range of corporate decisions. We empirically test this

  11. A simultaneous confidence band for sparse longitudinal regression

    KAUST Repository

    Ma, Shujie

    2012-01-01

    Functional data analysis has received considerable recent attention and a number of successful applications have been reported. In this paper, asymptotically simultaneous confidence bands are obtained for the mean function of the functional regression model, using piecewise constant spline estimation. Simulation experiments corroborate the asymptotic theory. The confidence band procedure is illustrated by analyzing CD4 cell counts of HIV infected patients.

  12. Supplementary Eye Field Encodes Confidence in Decisions Under Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    So, NaYoung; Stuphorn, Veit

    2016-02-01

    Choices are made with varying degrees of confidence, a cognitive signal representing the subjective belief in the optimality of the choice. Confidence has been mostly studied in the context of perceptual judgments, in which choice accuracy can be measured using objective criteria. Here, we study confidence in subjective value-based decisions. We recorded in the supplementary eye field (SEF) of monkeys performing a gambling task, where they had to use subjective criteria for placing bets. We found neural signals in the SEF that explicitly represent choice confidence independent from reward expectation. This confidence signal appeared after the choice and diminished before the choice outcome. Most of this neuronal activity was negatively correlated with confidence, and was strongest in trials on which the monkey spontaneously withdrew his choice. Such confidence-related activity indicates that the SEF not only guides saccade selection, but also evaluates the likelihood that the choice was optimal. This internal evaluation influences decisions concerning the willingness to bear later costs that follow from the choice or to avoid them. More generally, our findings indicate that choice confidence is an integral component of all forms of decision-making, whether they are based on perceptual evidence or on value estimations. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  13. Confidence and memory: assessing positive and negative correlations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roediger, Henry L; DeSoto, K Andrew

    2014-01-01

    The capacity to learn and remember surely evolved to help animals solve problems in their quest to reproduce and survive. In humans we assume that metacognitive processes also evolved, so that we know when to trust what we remember (i.e., when we have high confidence in our memories) and when not to (when we have low confidence). However this latter feature has been questioned by researchers, with some finding a high correlation between confidence and accuracy in reports from memory and others finding little to no correlation. In two experiments we report a recognition memory paradigm that, using the same materials (categorised lists), permits the study of positive correlations, zero correlations, and negative correlations between confidence and accuracy within the same procedure. We had subjects study words from semantic categories with the five items most frequently produced in norms omitted from the list; later, subjects were given an old/new recognition test and made confidence ratings on their judgements. Although the correlation between confidence and accuracy for studied items was generally positive, the correlation for the five omitted items was negative in some methods of analysis. We pinpoint the similarity between lures and targets as creating inversions between confidence and accuracy in memory. We argue that, while confidence is generally a useful indicant of accuracy in reports from memory, in certain environmental circumstances even adaptive processes can foster illusions of memory. Thus understanding memory illusions is similar to understanding perceptual illusions: Processes that are usually adaptive can go awry under certain circumstances.

  14. Music Education Preservice Teachers' Confidence in Resolving Behavior Problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hedden, Debra G.

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate whether there would be a change in preservice teachers' (a) confidence concerning the resolution of behavior problems, (b) tactics for resolving them, (c) anticipation of problems, (d) fears about management issues, and (e) confidence in methodology and pedagogy over the time period of a one-semester…

  15. Confidence Sharing in the Vocational Counselling Interview: Emergence and Repercussions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olry-Louis, Isabelle; Bremond, Capucine; Pouliot, Manon

    2012-01-01

    Confidence sharing is an asymmetrical dialogic episode to which both parties consent, in which one reveals something personal to the other who participates in the emergence and unfolding of the confidence. We describe how this is achieved at a discursive level within vocational counselling interviews. Based on a corpus of 64 interviews, we analyse…

  16. A Rasch Analysis of the Teachers Music Confidence Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yim, Hoi Yin Bonnie; Abd-El-Fattah, Sabry; Lee, Lai Wan Maria

    2007-01-01

    This article presents a new measure of teachers' confidence to conduct musical activities with young children; Teachers Music Confidence Scale (TMCS). The TMCS was developed using a sample of 284 in-service and pre-service early childhood teachers in Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR). The TMCS consisted of 10 musical activities.…

  17. Confidence bounds for normal and lognormal distribution coefficients of variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steve Verrill

    2003-01-01

    This paper compares the so-called exact approach for obtaining confidence intervals on normal distribution coefficients of variation to approximate methods. Approximate approaches were found to perform less well than the exact approach for large coefficients of variation and small sample sizes. Web-based computer programs are described for calculating confidence...

  18. A scale for consumer confidence in the safety of food

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonge, de J.; Trijp, van J.C.M.; Lans, van der I.A.; Renes, R.J.; Frewer, L.J.

    2008-01-01

    The aim of this study was to develop and validate a scale to measure general consumer confidence in the safety of food. Results from exploratory and confirmatory analyses indicate that general consumer confidence in the safety of food consists of two distinct dimensions, optimism and pessimism,

  19. Improving Quality Using Architecture Fault Analysis with Confidence Arguments

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-01

    Improving Quality Using Architecture Fault Analysis with Confidence Arguments Peter H. Feiler Charles B. Weinstock John B. Goodenough ...argument are represented explicitly. As reasons for doubt, called defeaters, are removed, confidence in system claims increases [ Goodenough 2013, Weinstock...Peter, Goodenough , John, Gurfinkel, Arie, Weinstock, Charles, & Wrage, Lutz. Reliability Improvement and Validation Framework (CMU/SEI-2012-SR-013

  20. Is consumer confidence an indicator of JSE performance?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kamini Solanki

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available While most studies examine the impact of business confidence on market performance, we instead focus on the consumer because consumer spending habits are a natural extension of trading activity on the equity market. This particular study examines investor sentiment as measured by the Consumer Confidence Index in South Africa and its effect on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE. We employ Granger causality tests to investigate the relationship across time between the Consumer Confidence Index and market performance. The results show weak evidence of a contemporaneous relationship; however, significant evidence of a Granger caused relationship is apparent. Further, changes in investor sentiment Granger-cause changes in the two indices used, generally with a lag of 9 and 12 months, but not vice versa. Thus, we find that Consumer Confidence leads JSE performance during our sample period. Our research provides evidence contradicting the common perception of consumer confidence lagging market performance, particularly in the South African context.

  1. Contrasting Diversity Values: Statistical Inferences Based on Overlapping Confidence Intervals

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacGregor-Fors, Ian; Payton, Mark E.

    2013-01-01

    Ecologists often contrast diversity (species richness and abundances) using tests for comparing means or indices. However, many popular software applications do not support performing standard inferential statistics for estimates of species richness and/or density. In this study we simulated the behavior of asymmetric log-normal confidence intervals and determined an interval level that mimics statistical tests with P(α) = 0.05 when confidence intervals from two distributions do not overlap. Our results show that 84% confidence intervals robustly mimic 0.05 statistical tests for asymmetric confidence intervals, as has been demonstrated for symmetric ones in the past. Finally, we provide detailed user-guides for calculating 84% confidence intervals in two of the most robust and highly-used freeware related to diversity measurements for wildlife (i.e., EstimateS, Distance). PMID:23437239

  2. Multivoxel neurofeedback selectively modulates confidence without changing perceptual performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cortese, Aurelio; Amano, Kaoru; Koizumi, Ai; Kawato, Mitsuo; Lau, Hakwan

    2016-01-01

    A central controversy in metacognition studies concerns whether subjective confidence directly reflects the reliability of perceptual or cognitive processes, as suggested by normative models based on the assumption that neural computations are generally optimal. This view enjoys popularity in the computational and animal literatures, but it has also been suggested that confidence may depend on a late-stage estimation dissociable from perceptual processes. Yet, at least in humans, experimental tools have lacked the power to resolve these issues convincingly. Here, we overcome this difficulty by using the recently developed method of decoded neurofeedback (DecNef) to systematically manipulate multivoxel correlates of confidence in a frontoparietal network. Here we report that bi-directional changes in confidence do not affect perceptual accuracy. Further psychophysical analyses rule out accounts based on simple shifts in reporting strategy. Our results provide clear neuroscientific evidence for the systematic dissociation between confidence and perceptual performance, and thereby challenge current theoretical thinking. PMID:27976739

  3. Subjective Confidence Predicts Information Seeking in Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desender, Kobe; Boldt, Annika; Yeung, Nick

    2018-04-01

    There is currently little direct evidence regarding the function of subjective confidence in decision making: The tight correlation between objective accuracy and subjective confidence makes it difficult to distinguish each variable's unique contribution. Here, we created conditions in a perceptual decision task that were matched in accuracy but differed in subjective evaluation of accuracy by orthogonally varying the strength versus variability of evidence. Confidence was reduced with variable (vs. weak) evidence, even across conditions matched for difficulty. Building on this dissociation, we constructed a paradigm in which participants ( N = 20) could choose to seek further information before making their decision. The data provided clear support for the hypothesis that subjective confidence predicts information seeking in decision making: Participants were more likely to sample additional information before giving a response in the condition with low confidence, despite matched accuracy. In a preregistered replication ( N = 50), these findings were replicated with increased task difficulty levels.

  4. Can nursing students' confidence levels increase with repeated simulation activities?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cummings, Cynthia L; Connelly, Linda K

    2016-01-01

    In 2014, nursing faculty conducted a study with undergraduate nursing students on their satisfaction, confidence, and educational practice levels, as it related to simulation activities throughout the curriculum. The study was a voluntary survey conducted on junior and senior year nursing students. It consisted of 30 items based on the Student Satisfaction and Self-Confidence in Learning and the Educational Practices Questionnaire (Jeffries, 2012). Mean averages were obtained for each of the 30 items from both groups and were compared using T scores for unpaired means. The results showed that 8 of the items had a 95% confidence level and when combined the items were significant for p confidence and active learning. Based on these findings, it can be assumed that repeated simulation experiences can lead to an increase in student confidence and active learning. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Multivoxel neurofeedback selectively modulates confidence without changing perceptual performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cortese, Aurelio; Amano, Kaoru; Koizumi, Ai; Kawato, Mitsuo; Lau, Hakwan

    2016-12-15

    A central controversy in metacognition studies concerns whether subjective confidence directly reflects the reliability of perceptual or cognitive processes, as suggested by normative models based on the assumption that neural computations are generally optimal. This view enjoys popularity in the computational and animal literatures, but it has also been suggested that confidence may depend on a late-stage estimation dissociable from perceptual processes. Yet, at least in humans, experimental tools have lacked the power to resolve these issues convincingly. Here, we overcome this difficulty by using the recently developed method of decoded neurofeedback (DecNef) to systematically manipulate multivoxel correlates of confidence in a frontoparietal network. Here we report that bi-directional changes in confidence do not affect perceptual accuracy. Further psychophysical analyses rule out accounts based on simple shifts in reporting strategy. Our results provide clear neuroscientific evidence for the systematic dissociation between confidence and perceptual performance, and thereby challenge current theoretical thinking.

  6. Impact of the TEPCO incident on the public's attitude to nuclear power generation. Periodic survey No.3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kitada, Atsuko

    2003-01-01

    The impact of the TEPCO incident, was examined, using the data collected by public opinion polls on power generation, which have been conducted persistently since 1993. The survey revealed that there were no negative changes in the public's attitude overall (including their concerns about nuclear power accidents, their sense of danger of such accidents, the image of organizations involved in nuclear power generation, their confidence in such organizations, and their opinion on the use of nuclear power generation), and that the TEPCO incident had no impact on the public's attitude to nuclear power generation. In contrast with the JCO accident, which did affect the public's attitude to nuclear power generation, the TEPCO incident left a strong impression on few people, and public awareness was limited. Such low public awareness is deemed to relate to its lack of impact on the public's attitude to nuclear power generation. In the case of the JCO accident, even individuals who had limited exposure to the mass media were highly of it, whereas in the case of the TEPCO incident, individuals who were relatively unexposed to the mass media were substantially less aware of the incident than their more mass-media-exposed counterparts. This is deemed to have been due to the difference in mass media reports. A comparison of newspaper articles covering the TEPCO and the JCO accident substantiated the quantitative difference in mass media reports: articles on the former numbered less than half of the latter. Correlation analysis with respect to the awareness of the TEPCO incident was conducted, in order to identify the impact of the incident on individuals with a high level of awareness. Such individuals were highly confident that safe operation is being regarded as the top-priority objective by staff at the nuclear power plants, indicating that their confidence was not undermined by the TEPCO incident. However, there was a high level of distrust, that the truth about safety is

  7. GENERAL SELF-CONFIDENCE AND ITS IMPLICATION ON STUDENTS’ ACHIEVEMENT IN ORAL PRESENTATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agus Salim

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available In speaking course, the teachers usually ask the students to present their projects in front of the class through an activity called Oral Presentation. However, many of students are afraid of public speaking due to the effect of self-confidence. This study is aimed to (1 describe general self-confidence among Indonesian EFL learners, (2 describe their academic achievement in oral presentation, and (3 find out the relationship between self-confidence and their academic achievement in oral presentation. Correlational design is used to investigate the existence or non existence of the relationship between the variables. The subjects of this study are 68 students at the second semester in English Department of one private university in Lamongan, Indonesia. Documentation and questionnaire are used as instruments to collect the data in this study. The findings reveal that (1 the students‘ general selfconfidence is quite strong, (2 the students‘ academic achievement in the oral presentation is good, and (3 the two variables show high correlation. Therefore, the teachers are suggested to enforce activities that could increase students‘ self-confidence which in turn could decrease their anxiety in public speaking.

  8. [Psychological impact of erectile dysfunction on self-esteem and self-confidence].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin-Morales, A; Meijide Rico, F; García González, J I; Regadera Anechina, L; Manero Font, M

    2005-05-01

    Erectile dysfunction (ED) is caused by a large range of organic, psychological, psychiatric, interpersonal and pharmacological factors. Numerous scientific publications mention the loss of self-esteem as a collateral effect of ED, with a very probable affectation of the subject's self-confidence. The objective of this study was to evaluate the self-esteem and self-confidence of subjects with ED and to compare them with a group of non-ED subjects. An epidemiological, cross-sectional, observational, comparative and multicentric study was conducted. General Practitioners selected 405 men older than 18 years in which they suspected ED. All the participants had to complete the self administered form of the Spanish version of the Rosenberg self-esteem scale and the Spanish culturally adapted version of the Johnson and McCoy self-confidence scale. After that, patients were referred to the urologist in order to confirm the ED diagnosis. The statistical analysis of the data showed that the subjects with ED obtained significantly lower scores in the self-confidence and self-esteem scales than the non-ED subjects (p self-confidence and self-esteem that suffer patients with ED.

  9. A peptide-retrieval strategy enables significant improvement of quantitative performance without compromising confidence of identification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tu, Chengjian; Shen, Shichen; Sheng, Quanhu; Shyr, Yu; Qu, Jun

    2017-01-30

    Reliable quantification of low-abundance proteins in complex proteomes is challenging largely owing to the limited number of spectra/peptides identified. In this study we developed a straightforward method to improve the quantitative accuracy and precision of proteins by strategically retrieving the less confident peptides that were previously filtered out using the standard target-decoy search strategy. The filtered-out MS/MS spectra matched to confidently-identified proteins were recovered, and the peptide-spectrum-match FDR were re-calculated and controlled at a confident level of FDR≤1%, while protein FDR maintained at ~1%. We evaluated the performance of this strategy in both spectral count- and ion current-based methods. >60% increase of total quantified spectra/peptides was respectively achieved for analyzing a spike-in sample set and a public dataset from CPTAC. Incorporating the peptide retrieval strategy significantly improved the quantitative accuracy and precision, especially for low-abundance proteins (e.g. one-hit proteins). Moreover, the capacity of confidently discovering significantly-altered proteins was also enhanced substantially, as demonstrated with two spike-in datasets. In summary, improved quantitative performance was achieved by this peptide recovery strategy without compromising confidence of protein identification, which can be readily implemented in a broad range of quantitative proteomics techniques including label-free or labeling approaches. We hypothesize that more quantifiable spectra and peptides in a protein, even including less confident peptides, could help reduce variations and improve protein quantification. Hence the peptide retrieval strategy was developed and evaluated in two spike-in sample sets with different LC-MS/MS variations using both MS1- and MS2-based quantitative approach. The list of confidently identified proteins using the standard target-decoy search strategy was fixed and more spectra/peptides with less

  10. What Are Confidence Judgments Made of? Students' Explanations for Their Confidence Ratings and What that Means for Calibration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinsmore, Daniel L.; Parkinson, Meghan M.

    2013-01-01

    Although calibration has been widely studied, questions remain about how best to capture confidence ratings, how to calculate continuous variable calibration indices, and on what exactly students base their reported confidence ratings. Undergraduates in a research methods class completed a prior knowledge assessment, two sets of readings and…

  11. What if Reading is Easy but Unimportant? How Students’ Patterns of Affirming and Undermining Motivation for Reading Information Texts Predict Different Reading Outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, Emily Q.; Wigfield, Allan

    2016-01-01

    Many affirming and undermining motivational constructs affect students as they read information texts, but few researchers have explored how these motivations are patterned within students. In this study we used cluster analysis to classify middle school students (n = 1,134) based on their patterns of self-efficacy, perceived difficulty, value, and devalue for reading school information texts. We then compared how the patterns predicted students’ language arts grades, science information text comprehension, and dedication to reading school information texts. We found and validated a four-cluster solution. One cluster included a pattern of high affirming and low undermining motivations, and another included low affirming and high undermining motivations. Students with these patterns earned the highest and lowest scores, respectively, on all outcomes. A third pattern showed high self-efficacy/low difficulty with low value/high devalue, and a fourth showed moderate levels of all four motivational constructs. Students with the high efficacy and devalue pattern showed high information text comprehension but relatively low dedication. Students with the moderate pattern showed high dedication but low initial information text comprehension. Students with these two patterns earned similar grades. We discuss the implications of our findings for motivation theories and for school instruction that involves information text reading. PMID:28496289

  12. The basis for confidence in the long-term safety of nuclear waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allen, C.J.; Whitaker, S.H.

    1993-07-01

    Confidence in the acceptability and the long-term safety of deep geological disposal draws strength from a number of sources: the technical approach, i.e., the use of multiple barriers for redundancy and defence in depth; the adoption of the observational approach to site characterization and to disposal vault design, construction, operation and, eventually, closure; the overall approach, which is based on ongoing review and incremental decision making; and, active and effective involvement of the public in this process

  13. Doubly Bayesian Analysis of Confidence in Perceptual Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bahrami, Bahador; Latham, Peter E.

    2015-01-01

    Humans stand out from other animals in that they are able to explicitly report on the reliability of their internal operations. This ability, which is known as metacognition, is typically studied by asking people to report their confidence in the correctness of some decision. However, the computations underlying confidence reports remain unclear. In this paper, we present a fully Bayesian method for directly comparing models of confidence. Using a visual two-interval forced-choice task, we tested whether confidence reports reflect heuristic computations (e.g. the magnitude of sensory data) or Bayes optimal ones (i.e. how likely a decision is to be correct given the sensory data). In a standard design in which subjects were first asked to make a decision, and only then gave their confidence, subjects were mostly Bayes optimal. In contrast, in a less-commonly used design in which subjects indicated their confidence and decision simultaneously, they were roughly equally likely to use the Bayes optimal strategy or to use a heuristic but suboptimal strategy. Our results suggest that, while people’s confidence reports can reflect Bayes optimal computations, even a small unusual twist or additional element of complexity can prevent optimality. PMID:26517475

  14. Perceived confidence relates to driving habits post-stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNamara, Annabel; Walker, Ruth; Ratcliffe, Julie; George, Stacey

    2015-01-01

    Returning to driving post-stroke is a step towards independence. On return to driving following stroke, confidence is related to performance in on-road assessment and self-regulation of driving behaviours occurs. The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between driver's confidence and driving habits post-stroke. Structured telephone surveys were completed with 40 stroke survivors (62% men), of mean age 65 years SD 12.17 who returned to driving post-stroke within the previous 3 years. The survey included: (1) socio-demographics, (2) Adelaide Driving Self Efficacy Scale (ADSES) and (3) Driving Habits Questionnaire (DHQ). Male stroke survivors were more likely to return to driving, drive further and more often. Stroke survivors under 65 years were likely to drive further. Driving confidence was significantly associated with kilometres driven (p = 0.006), distance driven (p = 0.027) and self-limiting driving (p = 0.00). Findings indicate a relationship between confidence and driving behaviours post-stroke. Early recognition of driving confidence will help professionals target specific strategies, encouraging stroke survivors to return to full driving potential, access activities and positively influence quality of life. Implications for Rehabilitation Findings indicate a relationship between confidence and driving behaviours post-stroke. Early recognition of driving confidence will help professionals target specific strategies, encouraging stroke survivors to return to full driving potential, access activities and positively influence quality of life.

  15. Neural correlates of perceived confidence in a partial report paradigm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graziano, Martín; Parra, Lucas C; Sigman, Mariano

    2015-06-01

    Confidence judgments are often severely distorted: People may feel underconfident when responding correctly or, conversely, overconfident in erred responses. Our aim here was to identify the timing of brain processes that lead to variations in objective performance and subjective judgments of confidence. We capitalized on the Partial Report Paradigm [Sperling, G. The information available in brief visual presentations. Psychological Monographs: General and Applied, 74, 1, 1960], which allowed us to separate experimentally the moment of encoding of information from that of its retrieval [Zylberberg, A., Dehaene, S., Mindlin, G. B., & Sigman, M. Neurophysiological bases of exponential sensory decay and top-down memory retrieval: A model. Frontiers in Computational Neuroscience, 3, 2009]. We observed that the level of subjective confidence is indexed by two very specific evoked potentials at latencies of about 400 and 600 msec during the retrieval stage and by a stationary measure of intensity of the alpha band during the encoding period. When factoring out the effect of confidence, objective performance shows a weak effect during the encoding and retrieval periods. These results have relevant implications for theories of decision-making and confidence, suggesting that confidence is not constructed online as evidence is accumulated toward a decision. Instead, confidence attributions are more consistent with a retrospective mechanism that monitors the entire decision process.

  16. Sex differences in confidence influence patterns of conformity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cross, Catharine P; Brown, Gillian R; Morgan, Thomas J H; Laland, Kevin N

    2017-11-01

    Lack of confidence in one's own ability can increase the likelihood of relying on social information. Sex differences in confidence have been extensively investigated in cognitive tasks, but implications for conformity have not been directly tested. Here, we tested the hypothesis that, in a task that shows sex differences in confidence, an indirect effect of sex on social information use will also be evident. Participants (N = 168) were administered a mental rotation (MR) task or a letter transformation (LT) task. After providing an answer, participants reported their confidence before seeing the responses of demonstrators and being allowed to change their initial answer. In the MR, but not the LT, task, women showed lower levels of confidence than men, and confidence mediated an indirect effect of sex on the likelihood of switching answers. These results provide novel, experimental evidence that confidence is a general explanatory mechanism underpinning susceptibility to social influences. Our results have implications for the interpretation of the wider literature on sex differences in conformity. © 2016 The British Psychological Society.

  17. Graphical interpretation of confidence curves in rankit plots

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hyltoft Petersen, Per; Blaabjerg, Ole; Andersen, Marianne

    2004-01-01

    A well-known transformation from the bell-shaped Gaussian (normal) curve to a straight line in the rankit plot is investigated, and a tool for evaluation of the distribution of reference groups is presented. It is based on the confidence intervals for percentiles of the calculated Gaussian...... will fit to the straight line describing the calculated In-Gaussian distribution. The quality of the fit is evaluated by adding confidence intervals (CI) to each point on the line and calculating the percentage of points outside the hyperbola-like CI-curves. The assumption was that the 95% confidence...

  18. The globalization of insecurity: how the international economic order undermines human and national security on a world scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nafeez Mosaddeq Ahmed

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available La seguridad nacional y humana ha sido fundamentalmente subestimada por políticas promovidas por instituciones claves de la globalización. La adopción de una conceptualización estato-céntrica de la seguridad demuestra cómo la globalización debilita y fragmenta el Estado, mientras militariza a los actores estatales y subestatales, contribuyendo sistemáticamente  a la emergencia de conflictos inter e intra-estatales. Un paradigma centrado en lo humano, que se focalise en el impacto de la globalización sobre los individuos y comunidades, muestra que este proceso esá vinculado con la generación de violencia estructural a lo largo de fronteras nacionales. Ambos niveles de procesos -el nacional y el humano- son mutualmente interdependientes e impactan el uno en el otro de forma recíproca. De aquí que la economía capitalista mundial ha creado un fenómeno que puede ser claramente descrito como la globalización de la inseguridad, generando en primera instancia conflicto y consecuentemente desestabilizando  naciones y comunidades, y en segundo lugar empobrecimiento, enfermedad y marginación. ________________ABSTRACT:National and human security has been fundamentally undermined by policies promoted by the key institutions of globalization. Adopting a state-centred conceptualization of security demonstrates how globalization at once weakens and fragments the state, while militarizing both the state and sub-state actors, contributing systematically to the emergence of intra- and inter-state conflicts. A human-centred framework, however, focusing on the impact of globalization on individuals and communities, shows that this process is further linked to the generation of structural violence across national boundaries. Both these national -and human- level processes are mutually interdependent and impact on one another reciprocally. Hence, the world capitalist economy has created a phenomenon that can be accurately described as the

  19. Confidence assessment. Site-descriptive modelling SDM-Site Laxemar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2008-12-15

    The objective of this report is to assess the confidence that can be placed in the Laxemar site descriptive model, based on the information available at the conclusion of the surface-based investigations (SDM-Site Laxemar). In this exploration, an overriding question is whether remaining uncertainties are significant for repository engineering design or long-term safety assessment and could successfully be further reduced by more surface-based investigations or more usefully by explorations underground made during construction of the repository. Procedures for this assessment have been progressively refined during the course of the site descriptive modelling, and applied to all previous versions of the Forsmark and Laxemar site descriptive models. They include assessment of whether all relevant data have been considered and understood, identification of the main uncertainties and their causes, possible alternative models and their handling, and consistency between disciplines. The assessment then forms the basis for an overall confidence statement. The confidence in the Laxemar site descriptive model, based on the data available at the conclusion of the surface based site investigations, has been assessed by exploring: - Confidence in the site characterization data base, - remaining issues and their handling, - handling of alternatives, - consistency between disciplines and - main reasons for confidence and lack of confidence in the model. Generally, the site investigation database is of high quality, as assured by the quality procedures applied. It is judged that the Laxemar site descriptive model has an overall high level of confidence. Because of the relatively robust geological model that describes the site, the overall confidence in the Laxemar Site Descriptive model is judged to be high, even though details of the spatial variability remain unknown. The overall reason for this confidence is the wide spatial distribution of the data and the consistency between

  20. Confidence Measurement in the Light of Signal Detection Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sébastien eMassoni

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available We compare three alternative methods for eliciting retrospective confidence in the context of a simple perceptual task: the Simple Confidence Rating (a direct report on a numerical scale, the Quadratic Scoring Rule (a post-wagering procedure and the Matching Probability (a generalization of the no-loss gambling method. We systematically compare the results obtained with these three rules to the theoretical confidence levels that can be inferred from performance in the perceptual task using Signal Detection Theory. We find that the Matching Probability provides better results in that respect. We conclude that Matching Probability is particularly well suited for studies of confidence that use Signal Detection Theory as a theoretical framework.

  1. 49 CFR 1103.23 - Confidences of a client.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... the disclosure or use of a client's confidences without knowledge and consent of the client even... when he discovers that this obligation presents a conflict in his duty between the former and the new...

  2. Social confidence in unions: a U.S.-Canada comparison.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frangi, Lorenzo; Hennebert, Marc-Antonin; Memoli, Vincenzo

    2014-05-01

    This article examines changes in levels of social confidence in unions in Canada and the United States between 1982 and 2006 based on an analysis of the World Value Survey (WVS) data set. It considers why confidence rates are similar in the two countries, applying a logistic regression model to the two most recent WVS waves (i.e., 2000 and 2006) so as to bring out the effects of political and social differences on the propensity of individuals to trust unions in each national context. The results show similarities between the two countries (e.g., more progressive and younger citizens generally have greater confidence in unions), but also important distinctions (e.g., only in Canada do individuals with a working class profile appear to have greater confidence in unions).

  3. Measurement of tag confidence in user generated contents retrieval

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sihyoung; Min, Hyun-Seok; Lee, Young Bok; Ro, Yong Man

    2009-01-01

    As online image sharing services are becoming popular, the importance of correctly annotated tags is being emphasized for precise search and retrieval. Tags created by user along with user-generated contents (UGC) are often ambiguous due to the fact that some tags are highly subjective and visually unrelated to the image. They cause unwanted results to users when image search engines rely on tags. In this paper, we propose a method of measuring tag confidence so that one can differentiate confidence tags from noisy tags. The proposed tag confidence is measured from visual semantics of the image. To verify the usefulness of the proposed method, experiments were performed with UGC database from social network sites. Experimental results showed that the image retrieval performance with confidence tags was increased.

  4. Confidence and the stock market: an agent-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertella, Mario A; Pires, Felipe R; Feng, Ling; Stanley, Harry Eugene

    2014-01-01

    Using a behavioral finance approach we study the impact of behavioral bias. We construct an artificial market consisting of fundamentalists and chartists to model the decision-making process of various agents. The agents differ in their strategies for evaluating stock prices, and exhibit differing memory lengths and confidence levels. When we increase the heterogeneity of the strategies used by the agents, in particular the memory lengths, we observe excess volatility and kurtosis, in agreement with real market fluctuations--indicating that agents in real-world financial markets exhibit widely differing memory lengths. We incorporate the behavioral traits of adaptive confidence and observe a positive correlation between average confidence and return rate, indicating that market sentiment is an important driver in price fluctuations. The introduction of market confidence increases price volatility, reflecting the negative effect of irrationality in market behavior.

  5. Lineup administrators' expectations: their impact on eyewitness confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrioch, L; Brimacombe, C A

    2001-06-01

    This research focuses on how lineup administrators influence eyewitnesses' postidentification confidence. What happens to witness confidence when a witness makes an identification that confirms the lineup administrator's expectations; what happens when this expectation is not confirmed? In Experiment 1, participant interviewers (n = 52) administered target-absent photo lineups to participant witnesses (n = 52). The interviewers did not view the simulated crime, but were told the thief's position in the lineup. In every instance this information was false (we used a target-absent lineup). A one-way ANOVA revealed that eyewitness identification confidence was malleable as a function of interviewers' beliefs about the thief's identity. In Experiment 2, participant jurors (n = 80) viewed 40 testimonies of Experiment 1 witnesses (2 participants viewed each testimony). Participant jurors judged all participant witnesses as equally credible despite their varying levels of postidentification confidence.

  6. The Sense of Confidence during Probabilistic Learning: A Normative Account

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyniel, Florent; Schlunegger, Daniel; Dehaene, Stanislas

    2015-01-01

    Learning in a stochastic environment consists of estimating a model from a limited amount of noisy data, and is therefore inherently uncertain. However, many classical models reduce the learning process to the updating of parameter estimates and neglect the fact that learning is also frequently accompanied by a variable “feeling of knowing” or confidence. The characteristics and the origin of these subjective confidence estimates thus remain largely unknown. Here we investigate whether, during learning, humans not only infer a model of their environment, but also derive an accurate sense of confidence from their inferences. In our experiment, humans estimated the transition probabilities between two visual or auditory stimuli in a changing environment, and reported their mean estimate and their confidence in this report. To formalize the link between both kinds of estimate and assess their accuracy in comparison to a normative reference, we derive the optimal inference strategy for our task. Our results indicate that subjects accurately track the likelihood that their inferences are correct. Learning and estimating confidence in what has been learned appear to be two intimately related abilities, suggesting that they arise from a single inference process. We show that human performance matches several properties of the optimal probabilistic inference. In particular, subjective confidence is impacted by environmental uncertainty, both at the first level (uncertainty in stimulus occurrence given the inferred stochastic characteristics) and at the second level (uncertainty due to unexpected changes in these stochastic characteristics). Confidence also increases appropriately with the number of observations within stable periods. Our results support the idea that humans possess a quantitative sense of confidence in their inferences about abstract non-sensory parameters of the environment. This ability cannot be reduced to simple heuristics, it seems instead a core

  7. Confidence limits for small numbers of events in astrophysical data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gehrels, N.

    1986-01-01

    The calculation of limits for small numbers of astronomical counts is based on standard equations derived from Poisson and binomial statistics; although the equations are straightforward, their direct use is cumbersome and involves both table-interpolations and several mathematical operations. Convenient tables and approximate formulae are here presented for confidence limits which are based on such Poisson and binomial statistics. The limits in the tables are given for all confidence levels commonly used in astrophysics.

  8. The Sense of Confidence during Probabilistic Learning: A Normative Account.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyniel, Florent; Schlunegger, Daniel; Dehaene, Stanislas

    2015-06-01

    Learning in a stochastic environment consists of estimating a model from a limited amount of noisy data, and is therefore inherently uncertain. However, many classical models reduce the learning process to the updating of parameter estimates and neglect the fact that learning is also frequently accompanied by a variable "feeling of knowing" or confidence. The characteristics and the origin of these subjective confidence estimates thus remain largely unknown. Here we investigate whether, during learning, humans not only infer a model of their environment, but also derive an accurate sense of confidence from their inferences. In our experiment, humans estimated the transition probabilities between two visual or auditory stimuli in a changing environment, and reported their mean estimate and their confidence in this report. To formalize the link between both kinds of estimate and assess their accuracy in comparison to a normative reference, we derive the optimal inference strategy for our task. Our results indicate that subjects accurately track the likelihood that their inferences are correct. Learning and estimating confidence in what has been learned appear to be two intimately related abilities, suggesting that they arise from a single inference process. We show that human performance matches several properties of the optimal probabilistic inference. In particular, subjective confidence is impacted by environmental uncertainty, both at the first level (uncertainty in stimulus occurrence given the inferred stochastic characteristics) and at the second level (uncertainty due to unexpected changes in these stochastic characteristics). Confidence also increases appropriately with the number of observations within stable periods. Our results support the idea that humans possess a quantitative sense of confidence in their inferences about abstract non-sensory parameters of the environment. This ability cannot be reduced to simple heuristics, it seems instead a core

  9. National study of parental confidence in general practitioners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freed, Gary L; Spike, Neil; O'Hara, Jonathan; Hiscock, Harriet; Rhodes, Anthea L

    2018-02-01

    To assess a national sample of Australian parental confidence in general practitioner (GP) care for illness and injury for their children. Cross-sectional, internet-based survey of a national, representative sample of parents of children birth - 17 years in Australia was used. Purposeful recruitment was used to achieve a national, representative sample of 2100 Australian parents, reflective of demographic and geographic distribution based on census data. Parents were asked to indicate their degree of confidence in a GP to handle medical problems as well as their preference for, and use of, paediatric speciality care for their children. Fewer than half of parents (44%) reported that they were completely confident in a GP to provide general care as defined as 'can handle almost all general health issues for my child'. A slightly greater proportion of parents (56%) were completely confident in a GP to provide care for minor injuries, defined as injuries not requiring an X-ray. Greater confidence in general care was seen among parents >40 years of age and those whose GP is always bulk billed. Parental confidence in GPs is an important issue. Our findings that fewer than half of parents are completely confident in their GP to provide general care to their child may be an influencing factor on current health-care utilisation trends. The potential implications of low parental confidence in GPs are greater numbers of emergency department presentations for children with lower urgency conditions and increased referrals of children for specialty care. © 2017 Paediatrics and Child Health Division (The Royal Australasian College of Physicians).

  10. The Sense of Confidence during Probabilistic Learning: A Normative Account.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florent Meyniel

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Learning in a stochastic environment consists of estimating a model from a limited amount of noisy data, and is therefore inherently uncertain. However, many classical models reduce the learning process to the updating of parameter estimates and neglect the fact that learning is also frequently accompanied by a variable "feeling of knowing" or confidence. The characteristics and the origin of these subjective confidence estimates thus remain largely unknown. Here we investigate whether, during learning, humans not only infer a model of their environment, but also derive an accurate sense of confidence from their inferences. In our experiment, humans estimated the transition probabilities between two visual or auditory stimuli in a changing environment, and reported their mean estimate and their confidence in this report. To formalize the link between both kinds of estimate and assess their accuracy in comparison to a normative reference, we derive the optimal inference strategy for our task. Our results indicate that subjects accurately track the likelihood that their inferences are correct. Learning and estimating confidence in what has been learned appear to be two intimately related abilities, suggesting that they arise from a single inference process. We show that human performance matches several properties of the optimal probabilistic inference. In particular, subjective confidence is impacted by environmental uncertainty, both at the first level (uncertainty in stimulus occurrence given the inferred stochastic characteristics and at the second level (uncertainty due to unexpected changes in these stochastic characteristics. Confidence also increases appropriately with the number of observations within stable periods. Our results support the idea that humans possess a quantitative sense of confidence in their inferences about abstract non-sensory parameters of the environment. This ability cannot be reduced to simple heuristics, it seems

  11. A monitor for consumer confidence in the safety of food

    OpenAIRE

    Jonge, de, J.

    2008-01-01

    Despite the fact that in the developed countries food safety standards are higher than ever, food safety incidents continue to occur frequently. The accumulation of food safety incidents might affect general consumer confidence in the safety of food. Therefore, in this thesis, the concept of general consumer confidence in the safety of food is further conceptualised, and embedded within an integrative framework that incorporates both its antecedents and consequences. General consumer confiden...

  12. Eliminative Induction: A Basis for Arguing System Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-01

    Eliminative Induction: A Basis for Arguing System Confidence John B. Goodenough , Charles B. Weinstock, Ari Z. Klein Software Engineering Institute...unlimited distribution. DM-0000209. REFERENCES [1] J. Goodenough , C. Weinstock and A. Klein, “Toward a Theory of Assurance Case Confidence,” Pittsburgh...4] C. B. Weinstock and J. B. Goodenough , “Towards an Assurance Case Practice for Medical Devices,” Pittsburgh, PA: Software Engineering

  13. Confidence-based somatic mutation evaluation and prioritization.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Löwer

    Full Text Available Next generation sequencing (NGS has enabled high throughput discovery of somatic mutations. Detection depends on experimental design, lab platforms, parameters and analysis algorithms. However, NGS-based somatic mutation detection is prone to erroneous calls, with reported validation rates near 54% and congruence between algorithms less than 50%. Here, we developed an algorithm to assign a single statistic, a false discovery rate (FDR, to each somatic mutation identified by NGS. This FDR confidence value accurately discriminates true mutations from erroneous calls. Using sequencing data generated from triplicate exome profiling of C57BL/6 mice and B16-F10 melanoma cells, we used the existing algorithms GATK, SAMtools and SomaticSNiPer to identify somatic mutations. For each identified mutation, our algorithm assigned an FDR. We selected 139 mutations for validation, including 50 somatic mutations assigned a low FDR (high confidence and 44 mutations assigned a high FDR (low confidence. All of the high confidence somatic mutations validated (50 of 50, none of the 44 low confidence somatic mutations validated, and 15 of 45 mutations with an intermediate FDR validated. Furthermore, the assignment of a single FDR to individual mutations enables statistical comparisons of lab and computation methodologies, including ROC curves and AUC metrics. Using the HiSeq 2000, single end 50 nt reads from replicates generate the highest confidence somatic mutation call set.

  14. Compulsivity Reveals a Novel Dissociation between Action and Confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaghi, Matilde M; Luyckx, Fabrice; Sule, Akeem; Fineberg, Naomi A; Robbins, Trevor W; De Martino, Benedetto

    2017-10-11

    Confidence and actions are normally tightly interwoven-if I am sure that it is going to rain, I will take an umbrella-therefore, it is difficult to understand their interplay. Stimulated by the ego-dystonic nature of obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD), where compulsive actions are recognized as disproportionate, we hypothesized that action and confidence might be independently updated during learning. Participants completed a predictive-inference task designed to identify how action and confidence evolve in response to surprising changes in the environment. While OCD patients (like controls) correctly updated their confidence according to changes in the environment, their actions (unlike those of controls) mostly disregarded this knowledge. Therefore, OCD patients develop an accurate, internal model of the environment but fail to use it to guide behavior. Results demonstrated a novel dissociation between confidence and action, suggesting a cognitive architecture whereby confidence estimates can accurately track the statistic of the environment independently from performance. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Recursive confidence band construction for an unknown distribution function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiatsupaibul, Seksan; Hayter, Anthony J

    2015-01-01

    Given a sample X1,...,Xn of independent observations from an unknown continuous distribution function F, the problem of constructing a confidence band for F is considered, which is a fundamental problem in statistical inference. This confidence band provides simultaneous inferences on all quantiles and also on all of the cumulative probabilities of the distribution, and so they are among the most important inference procedures that address the issue of multiplicity. A fully nonparametric approach is taken where no assumptions are made about the distribution function F. Historical approaches to this problem, such as Kolmogorov's famous () procedure, represent some of the earliest inference methodologies that address the issue of multiplicity. This is because a confidence band at a given confidence level 1-α allows inferences on all of the quantiles of the distribution, and also on all of the cumulative probabilities, at that specified confidence level. In this paper it is shown how recursive methodologies can be employed to construct both one-sided and two-sided confidence bands of various types. The first approach operates by putting bounds on the cumulative probabilities at the data points, and a recursive integration approach is described. The second approach operates by providing bounds on certain specified quantiles of the distribution, and its implementation using recursive summations of multinomial probabilities is described. These recursive methodologies are illustrated with examples, and R code is available for their implementation. © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  16. Learning to make collective decisions: the impact of confidence escalation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahmoodi, Ali; Bang, Dan; Ahmadabadi, Majid Nili; Bahrami, Bahador

    2013-01-01

    Little is known about how people learn to take into account others' opinions in joint decisions. To address this question, we combined computational and empirical approaches. Human dyads made individual and joint visual perceptual decision and rated their confidence in those decisions (data previously published). We trained a reinforcement (temporal difference) learning agent to get the participants' confidence level and learn to arrive at a dyadic decision by finding the policy that either maximized the accuracy of the model decisions or maximally conformed to the empirical dyadic decisions. When confidences were shared visually without verbal interaction, RL agents successfully captured social learning. When participants exchanged confidences visually and interacted verbally, no collective benefit was achieved and the model failed to predict the dyadic behaviour. Behaviourally, dyad members' confidence increased progressively and verbal interaction accelerated this escalation. The success of the model in drawing collective benefit from dyad members was inversely related to confidence escalation rate. The findings show an automated learning agent can, in principle, combine individual opinions and achieve collective benefit but the same agent cannot discount the escalation suggesting that one cognitive component of collective decision making in human may involve discounting of overconfidence arising from interactions.

  17. Initial eyewitness confidence reliably predicts eyewitness identification accuracy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wixted, John T; Mickes, Laura; Clark, Steven E; Gronlund, Scott D; Roediger, Henry L

    2015-09-01

    Eyewitness memory is widely believed to be unreliable because (a) high-confidence eyewitness misidentifications played a role in over 70% of the now more than 300 DNA exonerations of wrongfully convicted men and women, (b) forensically relevant laboratory studies have often reported a weak relationship between eyewitness confidence and accuracy, and (c) memory is sufficiently malleable that, not infrequently, people (including eyewitnesses) can be led to remember events differently from the way the events actually happened. In light of such evidence, many researchers agree that confidence statements made by eyewitnesses in a court of law (in particular, the high confidence they often express at trial) should be discounted, if not disregarded altogether. But what about confidence statements made by eyewitnesses at the time of the initial identification (e.g., from a lineup), before there is much opportunity for memory contamination to occur? A considerable body of recent empirical work suggests that confidence may be a highly reliable indicator of accuracy at that time, which fits with longstanding theoretical models of recognition memory. Counterintuitively, an appreciation of this fact could do more to protect innocent defendants from being wrongfully convicted than any other eyewitness identification reform that has been proposed to date. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  18. Gender, Math Confidence, and Grit: Relationships with Quantitative Skills and Performance in an Undergraduate Biology Course.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flanagan, K M; Einarson, J

    2017-01-01

    In a world filled with big data, mathematical models, and statistics, the development of strong quantitative skills is becoming increasingly critical for modern biologists. Teachers in this field must understand how students acquire quantitative skills and explore barriers experienced by students when developing these skills. In this study, we examine the interrelationships among gender, grit, and math confidence for student performance on a pre-post quantitative skills assessment and overall performance in an undergraduate biology course. Here, we show that females significantly underperformed relative to males on a quantitative skills assessment at the start of term. However, females showed significantly higher gains over the semester, such that the gender gap in performance was nearly eliminated by the end of the semester. Math confidence plays an important role in the performance on both the pre and post quantitative skills assessments and overall performance in the course. The effect of grit on student performance, however, is mediated by a student's math confidence; as math confidence increases, the positive effect of grit decreases. Consequently, the positive impact of a student's grittiness is observed most strongly for those students with low math confidence. We also found grit to be positively associated with the midterm score and the final grade in the course. Given the relationships established in this study among gender, grit, and math confidence, we provide "instructor actions" from the literature that can be applied in the classroom to promote the development of quantitative skills in light of our findings. © 2017 K. M. Flanagan and J. Einarson. CBE—Life Sciences Education © 2017 The American Society for Cell Biology. This article is distributed by The American Society for Cell Biology under license from the author(s). It is available to the public under an Attribution–Noncommercial–Share Alike 3.0 Unported Creative Commons License (http

  19. Publicity and public relations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fosha, Charles E.

    1990-01-01

    This paper addresses approaches to using publicity and public relations to meet the goals of the NASA Space Grant College. Methods universities and colleges can use to publicize space activities are presented.

  20. Public Health's Falling Share of US Health Spending.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Himmelstein, David U; Woolhandler, Steffie

    2016-01-01

    We examined trends in US public health expenditures by analyzing historical and projected National Health Expenditure Accounts data. Per-capita public health spending (inflation-adjusted) rose from $39 in 1960 to $281 in 2008, and has fallen by 9.3% since then. Public health's share of total health expenditures rose from 1.36% in 1960 to 3.18% in 2002, then fell to 2.65% in 2014; it is projected to fall to 2.40% in 2023. Public health spending has declined, potentially undermining prevention and weakening responses to health inequalities and new health threats.

  1. Cross-cultural adaptation and validation of the Karitane Parenting Confidence Scale of maternal confidence assessment for use in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, Lívia W; Bernardi, Juliana R; Matos, Salete de; Silva, Clecio H da; Goldani, Marcelo Z; Bosa, Vera L

    To transculturally adapt and validate the Karitane Parenting Confidence Scale to the Brazilian Portuguese language and culture and verify the combination of the results with the maternal sociodemographic characteristics. This is a validation and transcultural adaptation nestled in a longitudinal and observational study in Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil, assessing mother-infant pairs from different gestational and perinatal environments. The original authors authorized the translation into Brazilian Portuguese, unified version creation, back-translation, analysis by specialists, final version implementation, and acceptance. Cronbach's alpha analysis was performed. The Kruskal-Wallis test with post-hoc Dunn's test was used to compare the study groups. Socioeconomic and demographic characteristics, obtained through a questionnaire in the first 24-48h of the newborns' life, were associated with maternal results by the Brazilian version of the scale, using Spearman's correlation and Mann-Whitney's test. The sample consisted of 251 postpartum women, with the confidence maternal questionnaire being applied at 15 days postpartum. The median score of the mothers' confidence was 40.00 (37.00-43.00). The protocol obtained a Cronbach's alpha of 0.717. There were significant weak positive correlations between maternal confidence and age (p=0.013, r=0.157) and between maternal confidence and schooling (p=0.048, r=0.125). Additionally, a significant association was observed between maternal confidence and parity (p=0.030). The transcultural adaptation and validation of the confidence maternal questionnaire into Brazilian Portuguese language and culture showed good reliability for this sample. The results of its use demonstrated that maternal confidence was associated with schooling, age and parity. Copyright © 2017 Sociedade Brasileira de Pediatria. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

  2. Stability in the metamemory realism of eyewitness confidence judgments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buratti, Sandra; Allwood, Carl Martin; Johansson, Marcus

    2014-02-01

    The stability of eyewitness confidence judgments over time in regard to their reported memory and accuracy of these judgments is of interest in forensic contexts because witnesses are often interviewed many times. The present study investigated the stability of the confidence judgments of memory reports of a witnessed event and of the accuracy of these judgments over three occasions, each separated by 1 week. Three age groups were studied: younger children (8-9 years), older children (10-11 years), and adults (19-31 years). A total of 93 participants viewed a short film clip and were asked to answer directed two-alternative forced-choice questions about the film clip and to confidence judge each answer. Different questions about details in the film clip were used on each of the three test occasions. Confidence as such did not exhibit stability over time on an individual basis. However, the difference between confidence and proportion correct did exhibit stability across time, in terms of both over/underconfidence and calibration. With respect to age, the adults and older children exhibited more stability than the younger children for calibration. Furthermore, some support for instability was found with respect to the difference between the average confidence level for correct and incorrect answers (slope). Unexpectedly, however, the younger children's slope was found to be more stable than the adults. Compared to the previous research, the present study's use of more advanced statistical methods provides a more nuanced understanding of the stability of confidence judgments in the eyewitness reports of children and adults.

  3. Undermining Patriarchal Ideology in African Literature: A Study of Ngozi Chuma-Udeh’s Echoes of a New Dawn

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ujowundu Cornel O.

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available In a patriarchal society, women are faced with all sorts of dehumanisation ranging from deprivation, negligence, maltreatment, marginalisation, oppression, subjugation, exploitation, humiliation and even isolation, all of which emanate from aspects of the people’s culture. As a result, women now cry out for such aspects of the culture that undermine their wellbeing and emancipation to be eradicated. They, therefore, struggle for equality and emancipation in the male dominated society, especially the African society under study here. In this direction, literature becomes a tool for them to create awareness that the modern African woman through educational attainments is not just fighting for rights and privileges but also for something that must let the society understand that the women demand equal opportunities as human beings. Literature has, therefore, become a tool used to reflect the harsh realities of human lives, especially by the female writers like Ngozi Chuma-Udeh and some others concerning the socio-political, economic and religious realities of the womenfolk. Since literature has been found a veritable source of inspiration for national consciousness, it has become part of human life and existence, offering light, giving meaning and interpretation to man and his society as he struggles and aspires for a desired and cherished future. In the African society, for instance, women are seen not heard. They live under the shadows of men form their maiden homes to their matrimonial homes hence, they are regarded as second class citizens. They are usually neglected as their opinions are never sought before decisions are taken even in matters that directly affect them. In marriage, proposals are made to their fathers, or other male members of the family in the event of the father’s death. In fact, in the African society, which is under study here, women are seen as mere tools of necessity-housewives, child bearers, gratifiers of men

  4. Consumer Confidence Index and Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis of EU Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tanweer Ul Islam

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Consumer Confidence Index (CCI plays an important role through providing decision makers and economic forecasters with required information about present and future economic condition. These indices play a unique role in determining public policies as well as business decisions. Consumer confidence index defines the degree of optimism on the current state of the economy that consumers are expressing through their activities of saving and spending which lead to economic growth of the country. Positive changes in consumer confidence should lead to the economic growth while negative changes impede the economic growth of the countries. This study is an attempt to empirically evaluate the link between the CCI and economic growth of the selected European countries: United Kingdom, Germany, France, Denmark and Netherland. Panel co-integration procedures are applied to establish the long run relationship between the CCI and economic growth for the period of 1996 (1-2012 (4. Empirical results show the existence of the long run relationship between consumer confidence and economic growth.

  5. Exact confidence intervals for channelized Hotelling observer performance in image quality studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wunderlich, Adam; Noo, Frederic; Gallas, Brandon D; Heilbrun, Marta E

    2015-02-01

    Task-based assessments of image quality constitute a rigorous, principled approach to the evaluation of imaging system performance. To conduct such assessments, it has been recognized that mathematical model observers are very useful, particularly for purposes of imaging system development and optimization. One type of model observer that has been widely applied in the medical imaging community is the channelized Hotelling observer (CHO), which is well-suited to known-location discrimination tasks. In the present work, we address the need for reliable confidence interval estimators of CHO performance. Specifically, we show that the bias associated with point estimates of CHO performance can be overcome by using confidence intervals proposed by Reiser for the Mahalanobis distance. In addition, we find that these intervals are well-defined with theoretically-exact coverage probabilities, which is a new result not proved by Reiser. The confidence intervals are tested with Monte Carlo simulation and demonstrated with two examples comparing X-ray CT reconstruction strategies. Moreover, commonly-used training/testing approaches are discussed and compared to the exact confidence intervals. MATLAB software implementing the estimators described in this work is publicly available at http://code.google.com/p/iqmodelo/.

  6. Confidence intervals around Bayes Cost in multi-state diagnostic settings to estimate optimal performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batterton, Katherine A; Schubert, Christine M

    2014-08-30

    A critical feature of diagnostic testing is correctly classifying subjects based upon specified thresholds of some measure. The commonly employed Youden index determines a test's optimal thresholds by maximizing the correct classification rates for a diagnostic scenario. An alternative to the Youden index is the cost function, Bayes Cost (BC). BC determines a test's optimal setting by minimizing the sum of all misclassification rates from the test. Unlike the Youden index, BC can consider a priori costs of all the diagnostic outcomes including class specific misclassifications regardless of the number of classes. Delta method approximate confidence intervals around BC are derived under the assumption of normally distributed classes as a means for quantifying a test's performance and comparing classifiers at their optimal settings in a multi-state diagnostic framework. A simulation study is conducted to demonstrate the performance of the derived confidence intervals that are found to perform well, especially for sample sizes of 50 or larger in each diagnostic class. Finally, the proposed methods are applied to a four-class breast tissue classification problem, where four possible discriminatory features are compared under varying decision cost structures. Using the confidence intervals around BC, the best feature for classification is selected, and the optimal thresholds and their 95% confidence intervals are determined. Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  7. Personality and demographic correlates of New Zealanders' confidence in the safety of childhood vaccinations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Carol H J; Duck, Isabelle M; Sibley, Chris G

    2017-10-27

    Despite extensive scientific evidence on the safety of standard vaccinations, some parents express skeptical attitudes towards the safety of childhood immunisations. This paper uses data from the 2013/14 New Zealand Attitudes and Values Study (NZAVS) survey (N=16,642) to explore the distribution, and demographic and personality correlates of New Zealanders' attitudes towards the safety of childhood vaccinations. Around two thirds (68.5%) of New Zealanders strongly agreed/were confident that "it is safe to vaccinate children following the standard New Zealand immunisation schedule," 26% were skeptical and 5.5% were strongly opposed. Multiple regression analysis indicated that people lower on Conscientiousness and Agreeableness but higher on Openness to Experience expressed lower confidence about vaccine safety. Having higher subjective health satisfaction, living rurally, being Māori, single, employed and not a parent were all associated with lower confidence, while a higher income and educational attainment were associated with greater confidence. Our findings suggest that the majority of New Zealand adults trust in the safety of scheduled childhood vaccinations, but about one third do express some degree of concern. This finding highlights the importance of improving public education about the safety and necessity of vaccinations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Determining the confidence levels of sensor outputs using neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Broten, G.S.; Wood, H.C.

    1995-01-01

    This paper describes an approach for determining the confidence level of a sensor output using multi-sensor arrays, sensor fusion and artificial neural networks. The authors have shown in previous work that sensor fusion and artificial neural networks can be used to learn the relationships between the outputs of an array of simulated partially selective sensors and the individual analyte concentrations in a mixture of analyses. Other researchers have shown that an array of partially selective sensors can be used to determine the individual gas concentrations in a gaseous mixture. The research reported in this paper shows that it is possible to extract confidence level information from an array of partially selective sensors using artificial neural networks. The confidence level of a sensor output is defined as a numeric value, ranging from 0% to 100%, that indicates the confidence associated with a output of a given sensor. A three layer back-propagation neural network was trained on a subset of the sensor confidence level space, and was tested for its ability to generalize, where the confidence level space is defined as all possible deviations from the correct sensor output. A learning rate of 0.1 was used and no momentum terms were used in the neural network. This research has shown that an artificial neural network can accurately estimate the confidence level of individual sensors in an array of partially selective sensors. This research has also shown that the neural network's ability to determine the confidence level is influenced by the complexity of the sensor's response and that the neural network is able to estimate the confidence levels even if more than one sensor is in error. The fundamentals behind this research could be applied to other configurations besides arrays of partially selective sensors, such as an array of sensors separated spatially. An example of such a configuration could be an array of temperature sensors in a tank that is not in

  9. Registered nurse leadership style and confidence in delegation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saccomano, Scott J; Pinto-Zipp, Genevieve

    2011-05-01

      Leadership and confidence in delegation are two important explanatory constructs of nursing practice. The relationship between these constructs, however, is not clearly understood. To be successful in their roles as leaders, regardless of their experience, registered nurses (RNs) need to understand how to best delegate. The present study explored and described the relationship between RN leadership styles, demographic variables and confidence in delegation in a community teaching hospital. Utilizing a cross-sectional survey design, RNs employed in one acute care hospital completed questionnaires that measured leadership style [Path-Goal Leadership Questionnaire (PGLQ)] and confidence in delegating patient care tasks [Confidence and Intent to Delegate Scale (CIDS)]. Contrary to expectations, the data did not confirm a relationship between confidence in delegating tasks to unlicensed assistive personnel (UAPs) and leadership style. Nurses who were diploma or associate degree prepared were initially less confident in delegating tasks to UAPs as compared with RNs holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Further, after 5 years of clinical nursing experience, nurses with less educational experience reported more confidence in delegating tasks as compared with RNs with more educational experience. The lack of a relationship between leadership style and confidence in delegating patient care tasks were discussed in terms of the PGLQ classification criteria and hospital unit differences. As suggested by the significant two-way interaction between educational preparation and clinical nursing experience, changes in the nurse's confidence in delegating patient care tasks to UAPs was a dynamic changing variable that resulted from the interplay between amount of educational preparation and years of clinical nursing experience in this population of nurses. Clearly, generalizability of these findings to nurses outside the US is questionable, thus nurse managers must be familiar

  10. Case Reporting, Competence, and Confidence: A Discrepancy in the Numbers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, Deepa; Haisch, Carl E; Noland, Seth L

    The Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME) continues to play an integral role in accreditation of surgical programs. The institution of case logs to demonstrate competency of graduating residents is a key component of evaluation. This study compared the number of vascular cases a surgical resident has completed according to the ACGME operative log to their operative proficiency, quality of anastomosis, operative experience, and confidence in both a simulation and operative setting. General surgery residents ranging from PGY 1 to 5 participated in a simulation laboratory in which they completed an end-to-side vascular anastomosis. Each participant was given a weighted score based on technical proficiency and anastomosis quality using a previously validated Global Rating Scale (Duran et al, 2014). These scores were correlated to the General Surgery Milestones. Participants completed preoperative and postoperative surveys assessing resident operative experience using the 4-level Zwisch scale (DaRosa et al., 2013), confidence with vascular procedures and confidence performing simulated anastomoses. Confidence was assessed on a scale from 1 to 9 (not confident to extremely confident). Case logs were recorded for each participant. An IRB approved questionnaire was distributed to assess preoperative and postoperative roles of both the resident physician and faculty, with a defined goal. Univariate and multivariate analysis was performed. Twenty-one general surgery residents were evaluated in the simulation laboratory and 8 residents were assessed intraoperatively. The residents were evenly distributed throughout clinical years. Groups of residents were divided into quartiles based upon the number of vascular cases recorded in the ACGME database. No correlation was found between number of cases, Milestones score and the weighted score (p = 0.94). No statistical significance was found between confidence and quality of anastomosis (p = 0.1). Resident

  11. Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi; Zhang, Yuqing

    2016-01-01

    Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price.

  12. Kangaroo Care Education Effects on Nurses' Knowledge and Skills Confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almutairi, Wedad Matar; Ludington-Hoe, Susan M

    2016-11-01

    Less than 20% of the 996 NICUs in the United States routinely practice kangaroo care, due in part to the inadequate knowledge and skills confidence of nurses. Continuing education improves knowledge and skills acquisition, but the effects of a kangaroo care certification course on nurses' knowledge and skills confidence are unknown. A pretest-posttest quasi-experiment was conducted. The Kangaroo Care Knowledge and Skills Confidence Tool was administered to 68 RNs at a 2.5-day course about kangaroo care evidence and skills. Measures of central tendency, dispersion, and paired t tests were conducted on 57 questionnaires. The nurses' characteristics were varied. The mean posttest Knowledge score (M = 88.54, SD = 6.13) was significantly higher than the pretest score (M = 78.7, SD = 8.30), t [54] = -9.1, p = .000), as was the posttest Skills Confidence score (pretest M = 32.06, SD = 3.49; posttest M = 26.80, SD = 5.22), t [53] = -8.459, p = .000). The nurses' knowledge and skills confidence of kangaroo care improved following continuing education, suggesting a need for continuing education in this area. J Contin Educ Nurs. 2016;47(11):518-524. Copyright 2016, SLACK Incorporated.

  13. Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao-Qian Sun

    Full Text Available Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price.

  14. Conquering Credibility for Monetary Policy Under Sticky Confidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaylson Jair da Silveira

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available We derive a best-reply monetary policy when the confidence by price setters on the monetary authority’s commitment to price level targeting may be both incomplete and sticky. We find that complete confidence (or full credibility is not a necessary condition for the achievement of a price level target even when heterogeneity in firms’ price level expectations is endogenously time-varying and may emerge as a long-run equilibrium outcome. In fact, in the absence of exogenous perturbations to the dynamic of confidence building, it is the achievement of a price level target for long enough that, due to stickiness in the state of confidence, rather ensures the conquering of full credibility. This result has relevant implications for the conduct of monetary policy in pursuit of price stability. One implication is that setting a price level target matters more as a means to provide monetary policy with a sharper focus on price stability than as a device to conquer credibility. As regards the conquering of credibility for monetary policy, it turns out that actions speak louder than words, as the continuing achievement of price stability is what ultimately performs better as a confidence-building device.

  15. Multi-level opinion dynamics under bounded confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kou, Gang; Zhao, Yiyi; Peng, Yi; Shi, Yong

    2012-01-01

    Opinion dynamics focuses on the opinion evolution in a social community. Recently, some models of continuous opinion dynamics under bounded confidence were proposed by Deffuant and Krause, et al. In the literature, agents were generally assumed to have a homogeneous confidence level. This paper proposes an extended model for a group of agents with heterogeneous confidence levels. First, a social differentiation theory is introduced and a social group is divided into opinion subgroups with distinct confidence levels. Second, a multi-level heterogeneous opinion formation model is formulated under the framework of bounded confidence. Finally, computer simulations are conducted to study the collective opinion evolution, focusing on three key factors: the fractions of heterogeneous agents, the initial opinions, and the group size. The simulation results demonstrate that the number of final opinions depends on the fraction of close-minded agents when the group size and the initial opinions are fixed; the final opinions converge more easily when the initial opinions are closer; and the number of final opinions can be approximately modeled by a linear increasing function of the group size and the increasing rate is the fraction of close-minded agents.

  16. Maximum-confidence discrimination among symmetric qudit states

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jimenez, O.; Solis-Prosser, M. A.; Delgado, A.; Neves, L.

    2011-01-01

    We study the maximum-confidence (MC) measurement strategy for discriminating among nonorthogonal symmetric qudit states. Restricting to linearly dependent and equally likely pure states, we find the optimal positive operator valued measure (POVM) that maximizes our confidence in identifying each state in the set and minimizes the probability of obtaining inconclusive results. The physical realization of this POVM is completely determined and it is shown that after an inconclusive outcome, the input states may be mapped into a new set of equiprobable symmetric states, restricted, however, to a subspace of the original qudit Hilbert space. By applying the MC measurement again onto this new set, we can still gain some information about the input states, although with less confidence than before. This leads us to introduce the concept of sequential maximum-confidence (SMC) measurements, where the optimized MC strategy is iterated in as many stages as allowed by the input set, until no further information can be extracted from an inconclusive result. Within each stage of this measurement our confidence in identifying the input states is the highest possible, although it decreases from one stage to the next. In addition, the more stages we accomplish within the maximum allowed, the higher will be the probability of correct identification. We will discuss an explicit example of the optimal SMC measurement applied in the discrimination among four symmetric qutrit states and propose an optical network to implement it.

  17. Institutional Confidence in the United States: Attitudes of Secular Americans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabella Kasselstrand

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The First Amendment to the United States’ Constitution addresses freedom of religion and the separation of church and state. However, the historical influence of religion in laws, policies, and political representation have left secular individuals feeling excluded. At the same time, levels of confidence in social and political institutions in the United States are at an all-time low. This begs the question: Is there a relationship between secularity and confidence in various social and political institutions (e.g. the armed forces, churches, major companies, government, police, and political parties? This question is examined using data on the United States from the World Values Survey from 1995–2011. While controlling for a range of key demographics, the findings show a negative relationship between secularity and institutional confidence. More specifically, atheists and nonreligious individuals are less likely than those who are religious to have confidence in all six institutions. Based on previous literature and the empirical evidence presented in this study, we argue that overall lower levels of institutional confidence among secular Americans is an outcome of the exclusion of such individuals from American social life. Thus, it highlights the importance of addressing the stereotypes and prejudice that this minority group faces.

  18. Confidence intervals in temperature-based death time determination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hubig, Michael; Muggenthaler, Holger; Mall, Gita

    2015-01-01

    Marshall and Hoare's double exponential model with Henßge's parameters is a well known method for temperature based death time estimation. The authors give 95%-confidence intervals for their method. Since body cooling is a complex thermodynamical process, one has to take into account a potential bias of the estimator. This quantity measures the systematic error of the estimators underlying model. For confidence interval radius calculation a bias of 0 is presupposed, therefore the actual probability of the true death time value to lie in the 95%-confidence interval can be much lower than 95% in case of nonvanishing bias. As in case of nonstandard conditions the confidence intervals have a probability of containing the true death time value which even in case of small corrective factor errors of Δ = ± 0.1 can be substantially smaller than the 95% claimed, the paper presents a formula for confidence intervals which keep a 95% probability in case of error Δc ⩽ ± 0.1. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Relating the content and confidence of recognition judgments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selmeczy, Diana; Dobbins, Ian G

    2014-01-01

    The Remember/Know procedure, developed by Tulving (1985) to capture the distinction between the conscious correlates of episodic and semantic retrieval, has spawned considerable research and debate. However, only a handful of reports have examined the recognition content beyond this dichotomous simplification. To address this, we collected participants' written justifications in support of ordinary old/new recognition decisions accompanied by confidence ratings using a 3-point scale (high/medium/low). Unlike prior research, we did not provide the participants with any descriptions of Remembering or Knowing and thus, if the justifications mapped well onto theory, they would do so spontaneously. Word frequency analysis (unigrams, bigrams, and trigrams), independent ratings, and machine learning techniques (Support Vector Machine [SVM]) converged in demonstrating that the linguistic content of high and medium confidence recognition differs in a manner consistent with dual process theories of recognition. For example, the use of "I remember," particularly when combined with temporal or perceptual information (e.g., "when," "saw," "distinctly"), was heavily associated with high confidence recognition. Conversely, participants also used the absence of remembering for personally distinctive materials as support for high confidence new reports ("would have remembered"). Thus, participants afford a special status to the presence or absence of remembering and use this actively as a basis for high confidence during recognition judgments. Additionally, the pattern of classification successes and failures of a SVM was well anticipated by the dual process signal detection model of recognition and inconsistent with a single process, strictly unidimensional approach.

  20. Social Capital Practices as Adaptive Drivers for Local Adjustment of New Public Management in Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olesen, Kristian Gylling; Hasle, Peter; Sørensen, Ole H.

    2016-01-01

    New public management (NPM) reforms have typically undermined teachers' autonomy, values, and status in society. This article questions whether such reforms automatically have these outcomes or whether and how possibilities for local adjustment of such reforms may prevent negative outcomes. Drawing on empirical case studies from two Danish…

  1. A Study of the Right of Learners and Teachers to Quality Public ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Every day, everywhere in the world, the right of learners and teachers to quality public education is violated (Dorsi, 2014). The quality of education is undermined by a deficit of appropriately qualified teachers more particularly in the rural areas. It has been observed that there has been moral decadence in contemporary ...

  2. Social capital practices as adaptive drivers for local adjustment of new public management in schools

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olesen, Kristian Gylling; Hasle, Peter; Sørensen, Ole H.

    2016-01-01

    New public management (NPM) reforms have typically undermined teachers’ autonomy, values, and status in society. This article questions whether such reforms automatically have these outcomes or whether and how possibilities for local adjustment of such reforms may prevent negative outcomes. Drawi...

  3. The NEA Forum on Stakeholder Confidence - Phase I Lessons and Phase II Activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, Peter

    2006-01-01

    The Forum on Stakeholder Confidence (FSC) was created under a mandate from the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) Radioactive Waste Management Committee (RWMC) to facilitate the sharing of international experience in addressing the societal dimension of radioactive waste management. It explores means of ensuring an effective dialogue with the public, and considers ways to strengthen confidence in decision-making processes. The Forum was launched in August 2000 and completed its first phase in 00 . Major findings and principles for action were published under the title of 'Learning and Adapting to Societal Requirements'. Activities of the FSC were also reported at Valdor 2003. In the second mandate of the FSC, there is continued use of a variety of tools and formats to allow dialogue among stakeholders in an atmosphere of mutual trust: national workshops and community visits, topical sessions, and desk and interview studies. In Phase II, the FSC is exploring: the link between research, development and demonstration and stakeholder confidence; cultural and organisational changes in RWM institutions; the role of media relations and outreach opportunities; tools and processes to help society prepare and manage decisions through stakeholder involvement; and increasing the value of waste management facilities to local communities. Workshops have been held in Germany and Spain. A large set of publications makes both Phase I and Phase II findings widely available

  4. The NEA Forum on Stakeholder Confidence - Phase I Lessons and Phase II Activities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, Peter [Natural Resources Canada, Ottawa (Canada). Uranium and Radioactive Waste Div.; Pescatore, Claudio [Nuclear Energy Agency, Paris (France)

    2006-09-15

    The Forum on Stakeholder Confidence (FSC) was created under a mandate from the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) Radioactive Waste Management Committee (RWMC) to facilitate the sharing of international experience in addressing the societal dimension of radioactive waste management. It explores means of ensuring an effective dialogue with the public, and considers ways to strengthen confidence in decision-making processes. The Forum was launched in August 2000 and completed its first phase in 00 . Major findings and principles for action were published under the title of 'Learning and Adapting to Societal Requirements'. Activities of the FSC were also reported at Valdor 2003. In the second mandate of the FSC, there is continued use of a variety of tools and formats to allow dialogue among stakeholders in an atmosphere of mutual trust: national workshops and community visits, topical sessions, and desk and interview studies. In Phase II, the FSC is exploring: the link between research, development and demonstration and stakeholder confidence; cultural and organisational changes in RWM institutions; the role of media relations and outreach opportunities; tools and processes to help society prepare and manage decisions through stakeholder involvement; and increasing the value of waste management facilities to local communities. Workshops have been held in Germany and Spain. A large set of publications makes both Phase I and Phase II findings widely available.

  5. Overwhelming Scientific Confidence in Evolution and Its Centrality in Science Education--And the Public Disconnect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiles, Jason R.

    2010-01-01

    The teaching and learning of biological evolution has been beset by a host of challenges ranging from pedagogical obstacles to social controversy. These include two distinctive sets of problems: one arising from the fact that many evolutionary concepts may seem counterintuitive to students, and the other stemming from objections rooted in…

  6. Building and strengthening confidence and security in Asia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Corden, P.S.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents a few thoughts on the question of building and strengthening confidence and security in Asia, in particular in the area centred on the Korean peninsula. This question includes the process of establishing and implementing confidence- and security-building measures, some of which might involve States other than North and South Korea. The development of CSBMs has now been well established in Europe, and there are encouraging signs that such measures are taking hold in other areas of the world, including in Korea. Consequently there is a fairly rich mine of information, precedent and experience from which to draw in focusing on the particular subject at hand. In these remarks the concept of confidence- and security-building is briefly addressed and measures are examined that have proven useful in other circumstances and review some possibilities that appear of interest in the present context

  7. Exploring Self - Confidence Level of High School Students Doing Sport

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nurullah Emir Ekinci

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to investigate self-confidence levels of high school students, who do sport, in the extent of their gender, sport branch (individual/team sports and aim for participating in sport (professional/amateur. 185 active high school students from Kutahya voluntarily participated for the study. In the study as data gathering tool self-confidence scale was used. In the evaluation of the data as a hypothesis test Mann Whitney U non parametric test was used. As a result self-confidence levels of participants showed significant differences according to their gender and sport branch but there was no significant difference according to aim for participating in sport.

  8. Confidence and certainty: distinct probabilistic quantities for different goals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pouget, Alexandre; Drugowitsch, Jan; Kepecs, Adam

    2017-01-01

    When facing uncertainty, adaptive behavioral strategies demand that the brain performs probabilistic computations. In this probabilistic framework, the notion of certainty and confidence would appear to be closely related, so much so that it is tempting to conclude that these two concepts are one and the same. We argue that there are computational reasons to distinguish between these two concepts. Specifically, we propose that confidence should be defined as the probability that a decision or a proposition, overt or covert, is correct given the evidence, a critical quantity in complex sequential decisions. We suggest that the term certainty should be reserved to refer to the encoding of all other probability distributions over sensory and cognitive variables. We also discuss strategies for studying the neural codes for confidence and certainty and argue that clear definitions of neural codes are essential to understanding the relative contributions of various cortical areas to decision making. PMID:26906503

  9. Perceptual learning effect on decision and confidence thresholds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solovey, Guillermo; Shalom, Diego; Pérez-Schuster, Verónica; Sigman, Mariano

    2016-10-01

    Practice can enhance of perceptual sensitivity, a well-known phenomenon called perceptual learning. However, the effect of practice on subjective perception has received little attention. We approach this problem from a visual psychophysics and computational modeling perspective. In a sequence of visual search experiments, subjects significantly increased the ability to detect a "trained target". Before and after training, subjects performed two psychophysical protocols that parametrically vary the visibility of the "trained target": an attentional blink and a visual masking task. We found that confidence increased after learning only in the attentional blink task. Despite large differences in some observables and task settings, we identify common mechanisms for decision-making and confidence. Specifically, our behavioral results and computational model suggest that perceptual ability is independent of processing time, indicating that changes in early cortical representations are effective, and learning changes decision criteria to convey choice and confidence. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Does mood influence the realism of confidence judgments?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allwood, Carl Martin; Granhag, Pär Anders; Jonsson, Anna-Carin

    2002-07-01

    Previous research has shown that mood affects cognition, but the extent to which mood affects meta-cognitive judgments is a relatively over-looked issue. In the current study we investigated how mood influences the degree of realism in participants' confidence judgments (based on an episodic memory task). Using music and film in combination, we successfully induced an elated mood in half of the participants, but failed to induce a sad mood in the other half. In line with previous research, the participants in both conditions were overconfident in their judgments. However, and contrary to our prediction, our data indicated that there was no difference in the realism of the confidence between the conditions. When relating this result to previous research, our conclusion is that there is no, or very little, influence of mood of moderate intensity on the realism of confidence judgments.

  11. Sparse Multidimensional Patient Modeling using Auxiliary Confidence Labels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heim, Eric; Hauskrecht, Milos

    2015-11-01

    In this work, we focus on the problem of learning a classification model that performs inference on patient Electronic Health Records (EHRs). Often, a large amount of costly expert supervision is required to learn such a model. To reduce this cost, we obtain confidence labels that indicate how sure an expert is in the class labels she provides. If meaningful confidence information can be incorporated into a learning method, fewer patient instances may need to be labeled to learn an accurate model. In addition, while accuracy of predictions is important for any inference model, a model of patients must be interpretable so that clinicians can understand how the model is making decisions. To these ends, we develop a novel metric learning method called Confidence bAsed MEtric Learning (CAMEL) that supports inclusion of confidence labels, but also emphasizes interpretability in three ways. First, our method induces sparsity, thus producing simple models that use only a few features from patient EHRs. Second, CAMEL naturally produces confidence scores that can be taken into consideration when clinicians make treatment decisions. Third, the metrics learned by CAMEL induce multidimensional spaces where each dimension represents a different "factor" that clinicians can use to assess patients. In our experimental evaluation, we show on a real-world clinical data set that our CAMEL methods are able to learn models that are as or more accurate as other methods that use the same supervision. Furthermore, we show that when CAMEL uses confidence scores it is able to learn models as or more accurate as others we tested while using only 10% of the training instances. Finally, we perform qualitative assessments on the metrics learned by CAMEL and show that they identify and clearly articulate important factors in how the model performs inference.

  12. Trends in local public child welfare agencies 1999–2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wells, Rebecca; Jolles, Mónica Pérez; Chuang, Emmeline; McBeath, Bowen; Collins-Camargo, Crystal

    2017-01-01

    US public child welfare agencies have faced increasing pressure in the first decade of this century to demonstrate efficiency and accountability, even as the Great Recession increased pressures on millions of families and undermined human service funding. This paper reports on analyses of the two cohorts of local public child welfare agencies from the National Survey of Child and Adolescent Well-Being to identify changes in their structure and practice. Local agency adaptations have included some structural integration and apparently increased use of subcontracting, including investigations. Collectively, these trends appear to be fostering a tighter coupling of local child welfare agencies with other service providers. Some of these connections may improve families’ access to a range of services. However, the increased reliance on private providers may also undermine accountability and flexibility to respond to changing needs. PMID:29491548

  13. Building Scientific Confidence in Read-Across: Progress in ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Presentation at the 41st Annual Winter Meeting of The Toxicology Forum - From Assay to Assessment: Incorporating High Throughput Strategies into Health and Safety Evaluations on Building Scientific Confidence in Read-Across: Progress in using HT Data to inform Read-Across Performance Presentation at the 41st Annual Winter Meeting of The Toxicology Forum - From Assay to Assessment: Incorporating High Throughput Strategies into Health and Safety Evaluations on Building Scientific Confidence in Read-Across: Progress in using HT Data to inform Read-Across Performance

  14. The new Epinal image: the regained confidence and quality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Renoult, F.; Levitchi, M.; Hajj, L.E.; Marchesi, V.; Buchheit, I.; Noel, A.; Simon, J.M.; Peiffert, D.; Marchal, C.; Perrin, E.

    2010-01-01

    After the closing down of the Epinal radiotherapy department, the Nancy Alexis-Vautrin was entrusted to take up its activity again. It implemented a quality approach for equipment, organization and practices, in order to regain the confidence of patients in radiotherapy. This comprises a homogenisation of practices, a document management for technical protocols and procedures between both centres. A return-on-experience committee and an analysis of failure modes and of their effects and criticality have been implemented to reduce the error risk. Patient confidence has been assessed by the department psychologist and questionnaire results are assessed every three months. Short communication

  15. Estimation and interpretation of keff confidence intervals in MCNP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Urbatsch, T.J.

    1995-11-01

    MCNP's criticality methodology and some basic statistics are reviewed. Confidence intervals are discussed, as well as how to build them and their importance in the presentation of a Monte Carlo result. The combination of MCNP's three k eff estimators is shown, theoretically and empirically, by statistical studies and examples, to be the best k eff estimator. The method of combining estimators is based on a solid theoretical foundation, namely, the Gauss-Markov Theorem in regard to the least squares method. The confidence intervals of the combined estimator are also shown to have correct coverage rates for the examples considered

  16. Confidence Intervals from Realizations of Simulated Nuclear Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Younes, W. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Ratkiewicz, A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Ressler, J. J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2017-09-28

    Various statistical techniques are discussed that can be used to assign a level of confidence in the prediction of models that depend on input data with known uncertainties and correlations. The particular techniques reviewed in this paper are: 1) random realizations of the input data using Monte-Carlo methods, 2) the construction of confidence intervals to assess the reliability of model predictions, and 3) resampling techniques to impose statistical constraints on the input data based on additional information. These techniques are illustrated with a calculation of the keff value, based on the 235U(n, f) and 239Pu (n, f) cross sections.

  17. Confidence bounds on an empirical cumulative distribution function

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andres, T.H.

    1986-11-01

    Methods are developed for using data from an empirical cumulative distribution function (CDF) to generate, at each point in the range of the data an upper confidence bound on the estimated value of the underlying CDF. Applications are demonstrated where a confidence bound is applied to the empirical distribution of maximum effective annual dose equivalent obtained from a set of Monte Carlo simulations in an environmental assessment of nuclear fuel waste disposal. This bound can then be used to compare the empirical dose CDF with possible regulatory guidelines for dose from a disposal facility. Methods presented in the report can be used to select the number of simulations needed to meet such guidelines

  18. The accuracy-confidence correlation in eyewitness testimony: limits and extensions of the retrospective self-awareness effect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kassin, S M; Rigby, S; Castillo, S R

    1991-11-01

    This research extended Kassin's (1985) finding that retrospective self-awareness (RSA) increases the correlation between eyewitness accuracy and confidence. In Experiment 1, 91 mock witnesses saw a crime, answered questions, made an identification decision, and rated their confidence. RSA increased the accuracy-confidence correlation for witnesses who made an identification and for those who were high but not low in public self-consciousness. A 2nd experiment varied accountability and revealed that high accountability increased the accuracy-confidence correlation but that the RSA effect occurred even under low-accountability conditions. In both studies, observers could not distinguish between accurate and inaccurate witnesses. Together, these findings define the limits of the RSA effect and provide mixed support for a self-perception account of this effect.

  19. Improving Protein Detection Confidence Using SWATH-Mass Spectrometry with Large Peptide Reference Libraries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jemma X; Pascovici, Dana; Ignjatovic, Vera; Song, Xiaomin; Krisp, Christoph; Molloy, Mark P

    2017-10-01

    Protein quantification using data-independent acquisition methods such as SWATH-MS most commonly relies on spectral matching to a reference MS/MS assay library. To enable deep proteome coverage and efficient use of existing data, in silico approaches have been described to use archived or publicly available large reference spectral libraries for spectral matching. Since implicit in the use of larger libraries is the increasing likelihood of false-discoveries, new workflows are needed to ensure high confidence in protein matching under these conditions. We present a workflow which introduces a range of filters and thresholds aimed at increasing confidence that the resulting proteins are reliably detected and their quantitation is consistent and reproducible. We demonstrated the workflow using extended libraries with SWATH data from human plasma samples and yeast-spiked human K562 cell lysate digest. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  20. Saudis trust and confidence in information sources about chemical ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    AJL

    study investigated the Saudis ratings of different sources of information about health risks posed by ... impact of chemical pollution on health, and this has been ... pollution. Environmental pollution health risks involve technical understanding of health risk, public perceptions, and the public influence. Public perception of ...

  1. Performance of classification confidence measures in dynamic classifier systems

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Štefka, D.; Holeňa, Martin

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 23, č. 4 (2013), s. 299-319 ISSN 1210-0552 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-17187S Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : classifier combining * dynamic classifier systems * classification confidence Subject RIV: IN - Informatics, Computer Science Impact factor: 0.412, year: 2013

  2. Constructing seasonally adjusted data with time-varying confidence intervals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S.J. Koopman (Siem Jan); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)

    2001-01-01

    textabstractSeasonal adjustment methods transform observed time series data into estimated data, where these estimated data are constructed such that they show no or almost no seasonal variation. An advantage of model-based methods is that these can provide confidence intervals around the seasonally

  3. SOCIAL MEDIA – VITAL INSTRUMENT IN GAINING CONSUMERS CONFIDENCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirela-Cristina VOICU

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Given that, currently, the consumer has become more demanding and organizations face some of the greatest challenges due to the economic climate of recent years, the need to build and cultivate strong relationships has become vital not only for the company's success but also for its survival. And solid relationships are built over time through confidence. Trust is one of the most important elements in the process of purchasing and consumer loyalty; it is difficult to obtain but easy to lose. Companies that are enjoying a high degree of confidence benefit from best quotations for their shares, higher profits and a better retention of the best employees. The effects of the lack of confidence are obvious (unsatisfied consumers, lost sales and very expensive for the company. In this context, through the following paper we seek to bring more understanding on how a company can gain the confidence of consumers given that the forms of communication that consumers prefer and that are gaining momentum currently, are taking place online, especially in the social media.

  4. Nutrition Knowledge, Attitudes, and Confidence of Australian General Practice Registrars

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caryl A. Nowson

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Nutrition knowledge, attitudes, and confidence were assessed in General Practice Registrars (GPRs throughout Australia. Of approximately 6,000 GPRs invited to complete a nutrition survey, 93 respondents (2% completed the online survey, with 89 (20 males, 69 females providing demographic and educational information. Fifty-one percent had graduated from medical school within the last two years. From a list of 11 dietary strategies to reduce cardiovascular risk, respondents selected weight loss (84%, reducing saturated fats (90%, a maximum of two alcoholic drinks/day (82%, and increasing vegetables (83% as “highly appropriate” strategies, with only 51% indicating that salt reduction was “highly appropriate.” Two-thirds of registrars felt “moderately” (51% or “very” confident (16% providing nutrition advice. Most of them (84% recalled receiving information during training, but only 34% recalled having to demonstrate nutritional knowledge. The results indicate that this group of Australian GPRs understood most of the key dietary recommendations for reducing cardiovascular risk but lacked consensus regarding the recommendation to reduce salt intake and expressed mixed levels of confidence in providing nutritional advice. Appropriate nutrition education before and after graduation is recommended for GPRs to ensure the development of skills and confidence to support patients to make healthy dietary choices and help prevent chronic diseases.

  5. Parametric change point estimation, testing and confidence interval ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In many applications like finance, industry and medicine, it is important to consider that the model parameters may undergo changes at unknown moment in time. This paper deals with estimation, testing and confidence interval of a change point for a univariate variable which is assumed to be normally distributed. To detect ...

  6. A note on Nonparametric Confidence Interval for a Shift Parameter ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this article an application of a kernel based nonparametric approach in constructing a large sample nonparametric confidence interval for a shift parameter is considered. The method is illustrated using the Cauchy distribution as a location model. The kernel-based method is found to have a shorter interval for the shift ...

  7. Measuring Academic Behavioural Confidence: The ABC Scale Revisited

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sander, Paul; Sanders, Lalage

    2009-01-01

    The Academic Behavioural Confidence (ABC) scale has been shown to be valid and can be useful to teachers in understanding their students, enabling the design of more effective teaching sessions with large cohorts. However, some of the between-group differences have been smaller than expected, leading to the hypothesis that the ABC scale many not…

  8. A quick method to calculate QTL confidence interval

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2011-08-19

    Aug 19, 2011 ... strap sample form the bootstrap distribution of QTL location. The 2.5 and 97.5 percentiles are lower limit and upper limit of 95% QTL confidence interval. Although bootstrap is time- demanding, especially for large complex populations, it has been used frequently. Some authors' investigation showed.

  9. Disconnections between Teacher Expectations and Student Confidence in Bioethics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanegan, Nikki L.; Price, Laura; Peterson, Jeremy

    2008-01-01

    This study examines how student practice of scientific argumentation using socioscientific bioethics issues affects both teacher expectations of students' general performance and student confidence in their own work. When teachers use bioethical issues in the classroom students can gain not only biology content knowledge but also important…

  10. Does Confidence Predict Out-of-Domain Effort?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Prokudina, Elena; Renneboog, Luc; Tobler, Philippe

    2015-01-01

    Predicting worker’s effort is important in many different areas, but is often difficult. Using a laboratory experiment, we test the hypothesis that confidence, i.e. the person-specific beliefs about her abilities, can be used as a generic proxy to predict future effort provision. We measure

  11. Using confidence intervals for assessing reliability of real tests

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oosterwijk, P.R.; van der Ark, L.A.; Sijtsma, K.

    2018-01-01

    Test authors report sample reliability values but rarely consider the sampling error and related confidence intervals. This study investigated the truth of this conjecture for 116 tests with 1,024 reliability estimates (105 pertaining to test batteries and 919 to tests measuring a single attribute)

  12. Confidence bands for measured economically optimal nitrogen rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    While numerous researchers have computed economically optimal N rate (EONR) values from measured yield – N rate data, nearly all have neglected to compute or estimate the statistical reliability of these EONR values. In this study, a simple method for computing EONR and its confidence bands is descr...

  13. Role perception, job-related tension and organisational confidence ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Role perception, job-related tension and organisational confidence of the village extension workers in Nsukka zone of Enugu State Agricultural Development ... Data for the study were collected through structured questionnaire administered on 44 VEWS selected, using ... their role-expectations as being important. Many of ...

  14. Confidence in Forced-Choice Recognition: What Underlies the Ratings?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zawadzka, Katarzyna; Higham, Philip A.; Hanczakowski, Maciej

    2017-01-01

    Two-alternative forced-choice recognition tests are commonly used to assess recognition accuracy that is uncontaminated by changes in bias. In such tests, participants are asked to endorse the studied item out of 2 presented alternatives. Participants may be further asked to provide confidence judgments for their recognition decisions. It is often…

  15. Biased but in doubt: conflict and decision confidence.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wim De Neys

    Full Text Available Human reasoning is often biased by intuitive heuristics. A central question is whether the bias results from a failure to detect that the intuitions conflict with traditional normative considerations or from a failure to discard the tempting intuitions. The present study addressed this unresolved debate by using people's decision confidence as a nonverbal index of conflict detection. Participants were asked to indicate how confident they were after solving classic base-rate (Experiment 1 and conjunction fallacy (Experiment 2 problems in which a cued intuitive response could be inconsistent or consistent with the traditional correct response. Results indicated that reasoners showed a clear confidence decrease when they gave an intuitive response that conflicted with the normative response. Contrary to popular belief, this establishes that people seem to acknowledge that their intuitive answers are not fully warranted. Experiment 3 established that younger reasoners did not yet show the confidence decrease, which points to the role of improved bias awareness in our reasoning development. Implications for the long standing debate on human rationality are discussed.

  16. North Dakota Leadership Training Boosts Confidence and Involvement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flage, Lynette; Hvidsten, Marie; Vettern, Rachelle

    2012-01-01

    Effective leadership is critical for communities as they work to maintain their vitality and sustainability for years to come. The purpose of the study reported here was to assess confidence levels and community engagement of community leadership program participants in North Dakota State University Extension programs. Through a survey…

  17. Enhancing confidence in contribution claims by lobby and advocacy programs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klaver, D.C.; Prasad Mohapatra, Bibhu; Smidt, Hester

    2016-01-01

    Evaluators, implementers, and financial partners are increasingly concerned about their confidence that contribution claims made by Lobby and Advocacy (L&A) programs are being confirmed. This paper draws lessons learnt from the evaluations of both international and national L&A efforts for

  18. The role of consumer confidence in creating customer loyalty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ou, Yi-Chun; de Vries, Lisette; Wiesel, Thorsten; Verhoef, Pieter

    How can firms retain customers during recessions? To answer this question, we investigate the moderating role of consumer confidence (CC) on the effects of three types of crucial customer loyalty strategies. These strategies are value equity (VE), brand equity (BE), and relationship equity (RE),

  19. Unexpected arousal modulates the influence of sensory noise on confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Micah; Frank, Darya; Schwarzkopf, D Samuel; Fardo, Francesca; Winston, Joel S; Hauser, Tobias U; Rees, Geraint

    2016-01-01

    Human perception is invariably accompanied by a graded feeling of confidence that guides metacognitive awareness and decision-making. It is often assumed that this arises solely from the feed-forward encoding of the strength or precision of sensory inputs. In contrast, interoceptive inference models suggest that confidence reflects a weighted integration of sensory precision and expectations about internal states, such as arousal. Here we test this hypothesis using a novel psychophysical paradigm, in which unseen disgust-cues induced unexpected, unconscious arousal just before participants discriminated motion signals of variable precision. Across measures of perceptual bias, uncertainty, and physiological arousal we found that arousing disgust cues modulated the encoding of sensory noise. Furthermore, the degree to which trial-by-trial pupil fluctuations encoded this nonlinear interaction correlated with trial level confidence. Our results suggest that unexpected arousal regulates perceptual precision, such that subjective confidence reflects the integration of both external sensory and internal, embodied states. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.18103.001 PMID:27776633

  20. Metamemory in schizophrenia: retrospective confidence ratings interact with neurocognitive deficits

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eifler, Sarah; Rausch, Franziska; Schirmbeck, Frederike; Veckenstedt, Ruth; Mier, Daniela; Esslinger, Christine; Englisch, Susanne; Meyer-Lindenberg, Andreas; Kirsch, Peter; Zink, Mathias

    2015-01-01

    Prior studies with schizophrenia patients described a reduced ability to discriminate between correct and false memories in terms of confidence compared to control groups. This metamemory bias has been associated with the emergence and maintenance of delusions. The relation to neuropsychological

  1. High Performance, Confidence, and Disinclination to Explore: A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Gaye

    2013-01-01

    This video-stimulated interview study of problem-solving activity of a high performing Grade 6 girl who displayed confidence in her mathematical ability, provides a microanalysis of tensions she encountered when her findings using concrete aides did not match her rule application. It highlights her disinclination to explore these inconsistencies.…

  2. Using Confidence as Feedback in Multi-Sized Learning Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hench, Thomas L.

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes the use of existing confidence and performance data to provide feedback by first demonstrating the data's fit to a simple linear model. The paper continues by showing how the model's use as a benchmark provides feedback to allow current or future students to infer either the difficulty or the degree of under or over…

  3. Gender Difference of Confidence in Using Technology for Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yau, Hon Keung; Cheng, Alison Lai Fong

    2012-01-01

    Past studies have found male students to have more confidence in using technology for learning than do female students. Males tend to have more positive attitudes about the use of technology for learning than do females. According to the Women's Foundation (2006), few studies examined gender relevant research in Hong Kong. It also appears that no…

  4. Confidence Intervals for Assessing Heterogeneity in Generalized Linear Mixed Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagler, Amy E.

    2014-01-01

    Generalized linear mixed models are frequently applied to data with clustered categorical outcomes. The effect of clustering on the response is often difficult to practically assess partly because it is reported on a scale on which comparisons with regression parameters are difficult to make. This article proposes confidence intervals for…

  5. Constructing Approximate Confidence Intervals for Parameters with Structural Equation Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheung, Mike W. -L.

    2009-01-01

    Confidence intervals (CIs) for parameters are usually constructed based on the estimated standard errors. These are known as Wald CIs. This article argues that likelihood-based CIs (CIs based on likelihood ratio statistics) are often preferred to Wald CIs. It shows how the likelihood-based CIs and the Wald CIs for many statistics and psychometric…

  6. Concerns and developmental needs of highly confident and less ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The development of this study was based on three assumptions, namely 1) that coaching efficacy (confidence specific to the task of coaching) impacts the performance of coaches, 2) that coaching efficacy is influenced by the individual's procedural and declarative knowledge on coaching, and 3) that coaches do their work ...

  7. Likelihood-Based Confidence Intervals in Exploratory Factor Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oort, Frans J.

    2011-01-01

    In exploratory or unrestricted factor analysis, all factor loadings are free to be estimated. In oblique solutions, the correlations between common factors are free to be estimated as well. The purpose of this article is to show how likelihood-based confidence intervals can be obtained for rotated

  8. Likelihood-based confidence intervals in exploratory factor analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oort, F.J.

    2011-01-01

    In exploratory or unrestricted factor analysis, all factor loadings are free to be estimated. In oblique solutions, the correlations between common factors are free to be estimated as well. The purpose of this article is to show how likelihood-based confidence intervals can be obtained for rotated

  9. Likelihood-Based Confidence Intervals in Exploratory Factor Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oort, Frans J.

    2011-01-01

    In exploratory or unrestricted factor analysis, all factor loadings are free to be estimated. In oblique solutions, the correlations between common factors are free to be estimated as well. The purpose of this article is to show how likelihood-based confidence intervals can be obtained for rotated factor loadings and factor correlations, by…

  10. Beliefs, attitudes and self-confidence in learning mathematics ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... school authorities and the Ghana Education Service (GES) to offer guidance and counselling services for students to help them in their selection of academic programmes at the senior high school level and future career aspirations. Keywords: attitude to mathematics, beliefs in mathematics, self confidence in mathematics ...

  11. Panel Discussion and the Development of Students' Self Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anwar, Khoirul

    2016-01-01

    This study is to analyze the use of panel discussion towards the development of students' self confidence in learning the content subject of qualitative research concept. The study uses mix-method in which questionnaire and interview are conducted at the class of qualitative research of the sixth semester consisting twenty students especially…

  12. A monitor for consumer confidence in the safety of food

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonge, de J.

    2008-01-01

    Despite the fact that in the developed countries food safety standards are higher than ever, food safety incidents continue to occur frequently. The accumulation of food safety incidents might affect general consumer confidence in the safety of food. Therefore, in this thesis, the concept of general

  13. Improving Quality Using Architecture Fault Analysis with Confidence Arguments

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-01

    sufficient evidence. Figure 1: Architecture-Centric Requirements Decomposition An operational system, visualized in Figure 2, is defined as a set of...complete confidence maps side by side and at approximately the same scale. They are not meant to be read, but instead are presented to give a gestalt of

  14. The 'U-turn': Business confidence in a Karoo town

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2011-08-26

    Aug 26, 2011 ... An increase in business confidence might increase private investment in fixed capital goods, which will also ... Business people will only consider investing in an endeavour if the odds (within the ..... situations; new orders/contracts; stock levels; and increasing or decreasing levels of demand for services ...

  15. Confidence building on euro convergence : Evidence from currency options

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Driessen, J.J.A.G.; Perotti, E.

    2011-01-01

    We study the evolution of investor confidence in 1992–1998 over the chance of individual currencies to converge to the Euro, using data on currency option prices. Convergence risk, which may reflect uncertainty over policy commitment as well as exogenous fundamentals, induces a level of implied

  16. Confidence building on Euro convergence: evidence from currency options

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Driessen, J.; Perotti, E.

    2011-01-01

    We study the evolution of investor confidence in 1992-1998 over the chance of individual currencies to converge to the Euro, using data on currency option prices. Convergence risk, which may reflect uncertainty over policy commitment as well as exogenous fundamentals, induces a level of implied

  17. Academic Behavioural Confidence: A Comparison of Medical and Psychology Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanders, Lalage; Sander, Paul

    2007-01-01

    Introduction. Sander, Stevenson, King and Coates (2000) identified differences between medical students in a conventional university and psychology students in a post-1992 university in their responses to different styles of learning and teaching. Method. It had been hypothesised that differing levels of confidence explained why the former felt…

  18. A Tale of Five Countries: Background and Confidence in Preservice Primary Teachers in Drama Education across Five Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell-Bowie, Deirdre E.

    2013-01-01

    In many public primary schools across different countries, generalist primary teachers are required to teach all subjects, including music, dance, drama and visual arts. This study investigates the background and confidence of preservice primary teachers from five countries in relation to drama and drama education. It also examines if there is a…

  19. Effects of Remedial Instruction on Low-SES & Low-Math Students' Mathematics Competence, Interest and Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Der-Ching; Lai, Meng-Lung; Yao, Ru-Fen; Huang, Yueh-Chun

    2014-01-01

    This study aimed to examine the effects of remedial instruction on low-SES & low-math first graders' basic mathematics competence as well as their interest and confidence in mathematics learning. Fourteen participants of low-SES & low-math were selected from two classes totaling fifty-seven first graders at a public elementary school in…

  20. Bootstrap confidence intervals for the process capability index under half-logistic distribution

    OpenAIRE

    Wararit Panichkitkosolkul

    2012-01-01

    This study concerns the construction of bootstrap confidence intervals for theprocess capability index in the case of half-logistic distribution. The bootstrap confidence intervals applied consist of standard bootstrap confidence interval, percentile bootstrap confidence interval and bias-corrected percentile bootstrap confidence interval. Using Monte Carlo simulations, the estimated coverage probabilities and average widths ofbootstrap confidence intervals are compared, with results showing ...

  1. Planning an Availability Demonstration Test with Consideration of Confidence Level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank Müller

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The full service life of a technical product or system is usually not completed after an initial failure. With appropriate measures, the system can be returned to a functional state. Availability is an important parameter for evaluating such repairable systems: Failure and repair behaviors are required to determine this availability. These data are usually given as mean value distributions with a certain confidence level. Consequently, the availability value also needs to be expressed with a confidence level. This paper first highlights the bootstrap Monte Carlo simulation (BMCS for availability demonstration and inference with confidence intervals based on limited failure and repair data. The BMCS enables point-, steady-state and average availability to be determined with a confidence level based on the pure samples or mean value distributions in combination with the corresponding sample size of failure and repair behavior. Furthermore, the method enables individual sample sizes to be used. A sample calculation of a system with Weibull-distributed failure behavior and a sample of repair times is presented. Based on the BMCS, an extended, new procedure is introduced: the “inverse bootstrap Monte Carlo simulation” (IBMCS to be used for availability demonstration tests with consideration of confidence levels. The IBMCS provides a test plan comprising the required number of failures and repair actions that must be observed to demonstrate a certain availability value. The concept can be applied to each type of availability and can also be applied to the pure samples or distribution functions of failure and repair behavior. It does not require special types of distribution. In other words, for example, a Weibull, a lognormal or an exponential distribution can all be considered as distribution functions of failure and repair behavior. After presenting the IBMCS, a sample calculation will be carried out and the potential of the BMCS and the IBMCS

  2. Relating the Content and Confidence of Recognition Judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selmeczy, Diana; Dobbins, Ian G.

    2014-01-01

    The Remember/Know procedure, developed by Tulving (1985) to capture the distinction between the conscious correlates of episodic and semantic retrieval, has spurned considerable research and debate. However, only a handful of reports have examined the recognition content beyond this dichotomous simplification. To address this, we collected participants’ written justifications in support of ordinary old/new recognition decisions accompanied by confidence ratings using a 3-point scale (high/medium/low). Unlike prior research, we did not provide the participants with any descriptions of Remembering or Knowing and thus, if the justifications mapped well onto theory, they would do so spontaneously. Word frequency analysis (unigrams, bigrams, and trigrams), independent ratings, and machine learning techniques (Support Vector Machine - SVM) converged in demonstrating that the linguistic content of high and medium confidence recognition differs in a manner consistent with dual process theories of recognition. For example, the use of ‘I remember’, particularly when combined with temporal or perceptual information (e.g., ‘when’, ‘saw’, ‘distinctly’), was heavily associated with high confidence recognition. Conversely, participants also used the absence of remembering for personally distinctive materials as support for high confidence new reports (‘would have remembered’). Thus, participants afford a special status to the presence or absence of remembering and use this actively as a basis for high confidence during recognition judgments. Additionally, the pattern of classification successes and failures of a SVM was well anticipated by the Dual Process Signal Detection model of recognition and inconsistent with a single process, strictly unidimensional approach. “One might think that memory should have something to do with remembering, and remembering is a conscious experience.”(Tulving, 1985, p. 1) PMID:23957366

  3. Confidence in one's social beliefs: implications for belief justification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koriat, Asher; Adiv, Shiri

    2012-12-01

    Philosophers commonly define knowledge as justified true beliefs. A heated debate exists, however, about what makes a belief justified. In this article, we examine the question of belief justification from a psychological perspective, focusing on the subjective confidence in a belief that the person has just formed. Participants decided whether to accept or reject a proposition depicting a social belief, and indicated their confidence in their choice. The task was repeated six times, and choice latency was measured. The results were analyzed within a Self-Consistency Model (SCM) of subjective confidence. According to SCM, the decision to accept or reject a proposition is based on the on-line sampling of representations from a pool of representations associated with the proposition. Respondents behave like intuitive statisticians who infer the central tendency of a population based on a small sample. Confidence depends on the consistency with which the belief was supported across the sampled representations, and reflects the likelihood that a new sample will yield the same decision. The results supported the assumption of a commonly shared population of representations associated with each proposition. Based on this assumption, analyses of within-person consistency and cross-person consensus provided support for the model. As expected, choices that deviated from the person's own modal judgment or from the consensually held judgment took relatively longer to form and were associated with relatively lower confidence, presumably because they were based on non-representative samples. The results were discussed in relation to major epistemological theories--foundationalism, coherentism and reliabilism. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. The Central Intelligence Agency’s Armed Remotely Piloted Vehicle-Supported Counter-Insurgency Campaign In Pakistan – A Mission Undermined By Unintended Consequences?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon Bennett

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper views America's 'drones-first' counter-insurgency effort in Pakistan through the lens of Merton's theory of the unintended consequences of purposive action. It also references Beck’s Risk Society thesis, America’s Revolution in Military Affairs doctrine, Toft’s theory of isomorphic learning, Langer’s theory of mindfulness, Highly Reliable Organisations theory and the social construction of technology (SCOT argument. With reference to Merton’s theory, the CIA-directed armed Remotely Piloted Vehicle (RPV campaign has manifest functions, latent functions and latent dysfunctions. Measured against numbers of suspected insurgents killed, the campaign can be judged a success. Measured against the level of collateral damage or the state of US-Pakistan relations, the campaign can be judged a failure. Values determine the choice of metrics. Because RPV operations eliminate risk to American service personnel, and because this is popular with both US citizens and politicians, collateral damage (the killing of civilians is not considered a policy-changing dysfunction. However, the latent dysfunctions of America's drones-first policy may be so great as to undermine that policy's intended manifest function – to make a net contribution to the War on Terror. In Vietnam the latent dysfunctions of Westmoreland’s attritional war undermined America’s policy of containment. Vietnam holds a lesson for the Obama administration.

  5. Re-humanising Public Urban Space

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Almahmood, Mohammed Abdulrahman M

    This PhD thesis aims to contribute to a better understanding of the spatial, social, and cultural dimensions of the formation of human-centred public urban space. ‘Re-humanising’ the city is a traveling concept which implies that public urban spaces are liveable, walkable, safe, enjoyable......, and inclusive thereby allowing vibrant social interaction. While the inclusiveness of space is considered as a core value in human-centred public urban space, social and spatial exclusion is a key challenge to the success of public urban space, especially in the Global South. The mainstream research in urban...... design argues that modifying spatial settings can change cultural practices, undermining the cultural variations and their role in the inclusion and exclusion process by assuming that design is a key cause of social behaviour to occur. Therefore, this thesis unfolds the socio-cultural influence...

  6. Restoring Mexican Confidence in the Government: Rural Development as a Tool to Stem Migration

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-10-28

    index.php/2010/04/ nafta -and-u-s-corn-subsidies-explaining-the- displacement-of- mexicos -corn-farmers. 30 Ibid. 31 Carlos Salas, “The impact of NAFTA ...endorsed by the NWC or the Department of the Navy. 14. ABSTRACT To restore public confidence, the Government of Mexico must stem the tide of...contributions aimed at non-security initiatives. To reverse this trend, the U.S. and Mexico should focus not only on security initiatives, but also

  7. Turning simulation into reality: increasing student competence and confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, Debra; Bear, Mary; Sander, Jane

    2009-08-01

    Clinical experiences are an essential part of nursing education as students learn technical skills, build on critical thinking skills, and hone skills in patient teaching. To build competence and confidence in each of these skill areas, an innovative clinical experience for senior students enrolled in women's health nursing was developed to provide nursing care and independent discharge teaching for postpartum mothers. Faculty facilitated this clinical experience by designing a simulation laboratory for students to practice their maternal self-care teaching and infant care skills prior to beginning their clinical rotation. In the hospital, students spent a day independently prioritizing new mothers' need for education and teaching new mothers to care for themselves and their newborns. Students reported confidence in teaching maternal self-care and newborn care, and satisfaction with this unique clinical experience. This approach may assist students in transferring skills learned in simulation laboratories to clinical practice. Copyright 2009, SLACK Incorporated.

  8. Image classification by semisupervised sparse coding with confident unlabeled samples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiao; Fang, Min; Wu, Jinqiao; He, Liang; Tian, Xian

    2017-09-01

    Sparse coding has achieved very excellent performance in image classification tasks, especially when the supervision information is incorporated into the dictionary learning process. However, there is a large amount of unlabeled samples that are expensive and boring to annotate. We propose an image classification algorithm by semisupervised sparse coding with confident unlabeled samples. In order to make the learnt sparse coding more discriminative, we select and annotate some confident unlabeled samples. A minimization model is developed in which the reconstruction error of the labeled, the selected unlabeled and the remaining unlabeled data and the classification error are integrated, which enhances the discriminant property of the dictionary and sparse representations. The experimental results on image classification tasks demonstrate that our algorithm can significantly improve the image classification performance.

  9. False memories and memory confidence in borderline patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schilling, Lisa; Wingenfeld, Katja; Spitzer, Carsten; Nagel, Matthias; Moritz, Steffen

    2013-12-01

    Mixed results have been obtained regarding memory in patients with borderline personality disorder (BPD). Prior reports and anecdotal evidence suggests that patients with BPD are prone to false memories but this assumption has to been put to firm empirical test, yet. Memory accuracy and confidence was assessed in 20 BPD patients and 22 healthy controls using a visual variant of the false memory (Deese-Roediger-McDermott) paradigm which involved a negative and a positive-valenced picture. Groups did not differ regarding veridical item recognition. Importantly, patients did not display more false memories than controls. At trend level, borderline patients rated more items as new with high confidence compared to healthy controls. The results tentatively suggest that borderline patients show uncompromised visual memory functions and display no increased susceptibility for distorted memories. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Replication, falsification, and the crisis of confidence in social psychology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Earp, Brian D.; Trafimow, David

    2015-01-01

    The (latest) crisis in confidence in social psychology has generated much heated discussion about the importance of replication, including how it should be carried out as well as interpreted by scholars in the field. For example, what does it mean if a replication attempt “fails”—does it mean that the original results, or the theory that predicted them, have been falsified? And how should “failed” replications affect our belief in the validity of the original research? In this paper, we consider the replication debate from a historical and philosophical perspective, and provide a conceptual analysis of both replication and falsification as they pertain to this important discussion. Along the way, we highlight the importance of auxiliary assumptions (for both testing theories and attempting replications), and introduce a Bayesian framework for assessing “failed” replications in terms of how they should affect our confidence in original findings. PMID:26042061

  11. INTERVENTIONS FOR INCREASING BALANCE & CONFIDENCE IN OLDER ADULTS: A REVIEW

    OpenAIRE

    Foram Dhebar

    2014-01-01

    Elderly is defined as being 65 years of age or older. Geriatrics or geriatric medicine is a specialty that focuses on health care of elderly people. The number of persons above the age of 60 years is fast growing, especially in India. Falls are the leading cause of traumatic brain injury, fractures & the leading cause of emergency department visits by older adults. Low balance confidence is a major health problem among older adults restricting their participation in daily life. Objective of t...

  12. Better Confidence Intervals: The Double Bootstrap with No Pivot

    OpenAIRE

    David Letson; B.D. McCullough

    1998-01-01

    The double bootstrap is an important advance in confidence interval generation because it converges faster than the already popular single bootstrap. Yet the usual double bootstrap requires a stable pivot that is not always available, e.g., when estimating flexibilities or substitution elasticities. A recently developed double bootstrap does not require a pivot. A Monte Carlo analysis with the Waugh data finds the double bootstrap achieves nominal coverage whereas the single bootstrap does no...

  13. Confidence Sets in Change-Point Problems. Revision.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1987-05-01

    Bayesian credible sets for the change-point have been considered by Smith (1975) and Raferty and Akman (1986). Although some numerical computation is...essentially the same as the confidence set computed here. Actually Raferty and Akman consider a continuous time Poisson process model and hence allow...cumulative sum type statisti( for t t’ie iig point prodli-ii with zero-one observations. lhumetrka 87. 79-S4 RAferty. A. E and Akman . V. E. (1986

  14. Medical students as EMTs: skill building, confidence and professional formation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwiatkowski, Thomas; Rennie, William; Fornari, Alice; Akbar, Salaahuddin

    2014-01-01

    The first course of the medical curriculum at the Hofstra North Shore-LIJ School of Medicine, From the Person to the Professional: Challenges, Privileges and Responsibilities, provides an innovative early clinical immersion. The course content specific to the Emergency Medical Technician (EMT) curriculum was developed using the New York State Emergency Medical Technician curriculum. Students gain early legitimate clinical experience and practice clinical skills as team members in the pre-hospital environment. We hypothesized this novel curriculum would increase students' confidence in their ability to perform patient care skills and enhance students' comfort with team-building skills early in their training. Quantitative and qualitative data were collected from first-year medical students (n=97) through a survey developed to assess students' confidence in patient care and team-building skills. The survey was completed prior to medical school, during the final week of the course, and at the end of their first year. A paired-samples t-test was conducted to compare self-ratings on 12 patient care and 12 team-building skills before and after the course, and a theme analysis was conducted to examine open-ended responses. Following the course, student confidence in patient care skills showed a significant increase from baseline (pteam-building skills showed a significant increase (pteam-building skills. The incorporation of EMT training early in a medical school curriculum provides students with meaningful clinical experiences that increase their self-reported level of confidence in the performance of patient care skills early in their medical education.

  15. Autism Spectrum Disorder and High Confidence Gene Factors

    OpenAIRE

    Mai, MOCHIZUKI

    2017-01-01

    Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a neurological developmental disorder whose mechanism isyet unclear. However, recent ASD studies, which employ exome- and genome-wide sequencing,have identified some high-confidence ASD genes. Those ASD studies have revealed that CHD8is likely associated with ASD. In this article, we highlight that CHD8 may regulate othercandidate ASD risk genes. Current research indicates that there exist some thousand autismsusceptibility candidate genes. Moreover, we sugge...

  16. Fisher.py: Fisher Matrix Manipulation and Confidence Contour Plotting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coe, Dan

    2010-10-01

    Fisher.py allows you to combine constraints from multiple experiments (e.g., weak lensing + supernovae) and add priors (e.g., a flat universe) simply and easily. Calculate parameter uncertainties and plot confidence ellipses. Fisher matrix expectations for several experiments are included as calculated by myself (time delays) and the Dark Energy Task Force (WL/SN/BAO/CL/CMB), or provide your own.

  17. Comparison of Bootstrap Confidence Intervals Using Monte Carlo Simulations

    OpenAIRE

    Roberto S. Flowers-Cano; Ruperto Ortiz-Gómez; Jesús Enrique León-Jiménez; Raúl López Rivera; Luis A. Perera Cruz

    2018-01-01

    Design of hydraulic works requires the estimation of design hydrological events by statistical inference from a probability distribution. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we compared coverage of confidence intervals constructed with four bootstrap techniques: percentile bootstrap (BP), bias-corrected bootstrap (BC), accelerated bias-corrected bootstrap (BCA) and a modified version of the standard bootstrap (MSB). Different simulation scenarios were analyzed. In some cases, the mother distributi...

  18. Simultaneous confidence bands for Cox regression from semiparametric random censorship.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mondal, Shoubhik; Subramanian, Sundarraman

    2016-01-01

    Cox regression is combined with semiparametric random censorship models to construct simultaneous confidence bands (SCBs) for subject-specific survival curves. Simulation results are presented to compare the performance of the proposed SCBs with the SCBs that are based only on standard Cox. The new SCBs provide correct empirical coverage and are more informative. The proposed SCBs are illustrated with two real examples. An extension to handle missing censoring indicators is also outlined.

  19. Confidence-Based Robot Policy Learning from Demonstration

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-03-05

    Development of a small biped entertainment robot QRIO. In Micro- Nanomechatronics and Human Science, 2004, pages 23–28, 2004. [45] Odest Chadwicke Jenkins...adaptation of biped locomotion. Robotics and Autonomous Systems, 47:79–91, 2004. [60] Ulrich Nehmzow, Otar Akanyeti, Cristoph Weinrich, Theocharis...Confidence-Based Robot Policy Learning from Demonstration Sonia Chernova CMU-CS-09-105 March 5, 2009 School of Computer Science Computer Science

  20. Teachers and Counselors: Building Math Confidence in Schools

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph M. Furner

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Mathematics teachers need to take on the role of counselors in addressing the math anxious in today's math classrooms. This paper looks at the impact math anxiety has on the future of young adults in our high-tech society. Teachers and professional school counselors are encouraged to work together to prevent and reduce math anxiety. It is important that all students feel confident in their ability to do mathematics in an age that relies so heavily on problem solving, technology, science, and mathematics. It really is a school's obligation to see that their students value and feel confident in their ability to do math, because ultimately a child's life: all decisions they will make and careers choices may be determined based on their disposition toward mathematics. This paper raises some interesting questions and provides some strategies (See Appendix A for teachers and counselors for addressing the issue of math anxiety while discussing the importance of developing mathematically confident young people for a high-tech world of STEM.