The finite state projection approach to analyze dynamics of heterogeneous populations

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Rob; Munsky, Brian

2017-06-01

Population modeling aims to capture and predict the dynamics of cell populations in constant or fluctuating environments. At the elementary level, population growth proceeds through sequential divisions of individual cells. Due to stochastic effects, populations of cells are inherently heterogeneous in phenotype, and some phenotypic variables have an effect on division or survival rates, as can be seen in partial drug resistance. Therefore, when modeling population dynamics where the control of growth and division is phenotype dependent, the corresponding model must take account of the underlying cellular heterogeneity. The finite state projection (FSP) approach has often been used to analyze the statistics of independent cells. Here, we extend the FSP analysis to explore the coupling of cell dynamics and biomolecule dynamics within a population. This extension allows a general framework with which to model the state occupations of a heterogeneous, isogenic population of dividing and expiring cells. The method is demonstrated with a simple model of cell-cycle progression, which we use to explore possible dynamics of drug resistance phenotypes in dividing cells. We use this method to show how stochastic single-cell behaviors affect population level efficacy of drug treatments, and we illustrate how slight modifications to treatment regimens may have dramatic effects on drug efficacy.

Smallholder dairy systems in the Kenya highlands: cattle population dynamics under increasing intensification

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bebe, B.O.; Udo, H.M.J.; Rowlands, G.J.; Thorpe, W.

2003-01-01

A cross-sectional stratified random sample survey of 1755 households in the Kenya highlands was conducted between June 1996 and April 1998 to quantify cattle population dynamics in smallholder herds. The free-, semi-zero- and zero-grazing systems practised represented increasing levels of

Effects of wind farms on harbour porpoise behaviour and population dynamics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nabe-Nielsen, Jacob; Tougaard, Jakob; Teilmann, Jonas

We developed an individual-based simulation model in order to study the cumulative impacts of wind farms and ship traffic on the long-term survival and population dynamics of the harbour porpoise (Phocoena phocoena) in Kattegat and the Belt Seas. The model is based on knowl- edge of the porpoises...... at distances >1 km. Our simulations suggest that operating wind farms and wind farms under construction do not affect the size or dynamics of the harbour porpoise population in Kattegat. Ship traffic may, in contrast, cause the population size to decrease....

Population dynamics under increasing environmental variability: implications of climate change for ecological network design criteria

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Verboom, J.; Schippers, P.; Cormont, A.; Sterk, M.; Vos, C.C.; Opdam, P.F.M.

2010-01-01

There is growing evidence that climate change causes an increase in variation in conditions for plant and animal populations. This increase in variation, e.g. amplified inter-annual variability in temperature and rainfall has population dynamical consequences because it raises the variation in vital

Impact of environmental colored noise in single-species population dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Spanio, Tommaso; Hidalgo, Jorge; Muñoz, Miguel A.

2017-10-01

Variability on external conditions has important consequences for the dynamics and the organization of biological systems. In many cases, the characteristic timescale of environmental changes as well as their correlations play a fundamental role in the way living systems adapt and respond to it. A proper mathematical approach to understand population dynamics, thus, requires approaches more refined than, e.g., simple white-noise approximations. To shed further light onto this problem, in this paper we propose a unifying framework based on different analytical and numerical tools available to deal with "colored" environmental noise. In particular, we employ a "unified colored noise approximation" to map the original problem into an effective one with white noise, and then we apply a standard path integral approach to gain analytical understanding. For the sake of specificity, we present our approach using as a guideline a variation of the contact process—which can also be seen as a birth-death process of the Malthus-Verhulst class—where the propagation or birth rate varies stochastically in time. Our approach allows us to tackle in a systematic manner some of the relevant questions concerning population dynamics under environmental variability, such as determining the stationary population density, establishing the conditions under which a population may become extinct, and estimating extinction times. We focus on the emerging phase diagram and its possible phase transitions, underlying how these are affected by the presence of environmental noise time-correlations.

Phenotypic equilibrium as probabilistic convergence in multi-phenotype cell population dynamics.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Da-Quan Jiang

Full Text Available We consider the cell population dynamics with n different phenotypes. Both the Markovian branching process model (stochastic model and the ordinary differential equation (ODE system model (deterministic model are presented, and exploited to investigate the dynamics of the phenotypic proportions. We will prove that in both models, these proportions will tend to constants regardless of initial population states ("phenotypic equilibrium" under weak conditions, which explains the experimental phenomenon in Gupta et al.'s paper. We also prove that Gupta et al.'s explanation is the ODE model under a special assumption. As an application, we will give sufficient and necessary conditions under which the proportion of one phenotype tends to 0 (die out or 1 (dominate. We also extend our results to non-Markovian cases.

A general modeling framework for describing spatially structured population dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Sample, Christine; Fryxell, John; Bieri, Joanna; Federico, Paula; Earl, Julia; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Mattsson, Brady; Flockhart, Tyler; Nicol, Sam; Diffendorfer, James E.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Erickson, Richard A.; Norris, D. Ryan

2017-01-01

Variation in movement across time and space fundamentally shapes the abundance and distribution of populations. Although a variety of approaches model structured population dynamics, they are limited to specific types of spatially structured populations and lack a unifying framework. Here, we propose a unified network-based framework sufficiently novel in its flexibility to capture a wide variety of spatiotemporal processes including metapopulations and a range of migratory patterns. It can accommodate different kinds of age structures, forms of population growth, dispersal, nomadism and migration, and alternative life-history strategies. Our objective was to link three general elements common to all spatially structured populations (space, time and movement) under a single mathematical framework. To do this, we adopt a network modeling approach. The spatial structure of a population is represented by a weighted and directed network. Each node and each edge has a set of attributes which vary through time. The dynamics of our network-based population is modeled with discrete time steps. Using both theoretical and real-world examples, we show how common elements recur across species with disparate movement strategies and how they can be combined under a unified mathematical framework. We illustrate how metapopulations, various migratory patterns, and nomadism can be represented with this modeling approach. We also apply our network-based framework to four organisms spanning a wide range of life histories, movement patterns, and carrying capacities. General computer code to implement our framework is provided, which can be applied to almost any spatially structured population. This framework contributes to our theoretical understanding of population dynamics and has practical management applications, including understanding the impact of perturbations on population size, distribution, and movement patterns. By working within a common framework, there is less chance

The Tragedy of the Commons : The Dynamic Adjustment under Unregulated Population Growth

OpenAIRE

早川 弘晃

2015-01-01

The tragedy of the commons is often represented in terms of Nash equilibrium of a static game of complete information. Such elucidation is misleading since it does not capture the dynamics of an underlying process that eventually invites the tragedy as the number of the users increases without limit. Using a bucolic case as an example, this paper examines Hardin’s thesis from the standpoint of a dynamic process by elucidating the inherent logic of entry that is inevitable.The key to this proc...

A Theoretical Approach to Understanding Population Dynamics with Seasonal Developmental Durations

Science.gov (United States)

Lou, Yijun; Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

2017-04-01

There is a growing body of biological investigations to understand impacts of seasonally changing environmental conditions on population dynamics in various research fields such as single population growth and disease transmission. On the other side, understanding the population dynamics subject to seasonally changing weather conditions plays a fundamental role in predicting the trends of population patterns and disease transmission risks under the scenarios of climate change. With the host-macroparasite interaction as a motivating example, we propose a synthesized approach for investigating the population dynamics subject to seasonal environmental variations from theoretical point of view, where the model development, basic reproduction ratio formulation and computation, and rigorous mathematical analysis are involved. The resultant model with periodic delay presents a novel term related to the rate of change of the developmental duration, bringing new challenges to dynamics analysis. By investigating a periodic semiflow on a suitably chosen phase space, the global dynamics of a threshold type is established: all solutions either go to zero when basic reproduction ratio is less than one, or stabilize at a positive periodic state when the reproduction ratio is greater than one. The synthesized approach developed here is applicable to broader contexts of investigating biological systems with seasonal developmental durations.

Bridging the Timescales of Single-Cell and Population Dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Jafarpour, Farshid; Wright, Charles S.; Gudjonson, Herman; Riebling, Jedidiah; Dawson, Emma; Lo, Klevin; Fiebig, Aretha; Crosson, Sean; Dinner, Aaron R.; Iyer-Biswas, Srividya

2018-04-01

How are granular details of stochastic growth and division of individual cells reflected in smooth deterministic growth of population numbers? We provide an integrated, multiscale perspective of microbial growth dynamics by formulating a data-validated theoretical framework that accounts for observables at both single-cell and population scales. We derive exact analytical complete time-dependent solutions to cell-age distributions and population growth rates as functionals of the underlying interdivision time distributions, for symmetric and asymmetric cell division. These results provide insights into the surprising implications of stochastic single-cell dynamics for population growth. Using our results for asymmetric division, we deduce the time to transition from the reproductively quiescent (swarmer) to the replication-competent (stalked) stage of the Caulobacter crescentus life cycle. Remarkably, population numbers can spontaneously oscillate with time. We elucidate the physics leading to these population oscillations. For C. crescentus cells, we show that a simple measurement of the population growth rate, for a given growth condition, is sufficient to characterize the condition-specific cellular unit of time and, thus, yields the mean (single-cell) growth and division timescales, fluctuations in cell division times, the cell-age distribution, and the quiescence timescale.

Population Model with a Dynamic Food Supply

Science.gov (United States)

Dickman, Ronald; da Silva Nascimento, Jonas

2009-09-01

We propose a simple population model including the food supply as a dynamic variable. In the model, survival of an organism depends on a certain minimum rate of food consumption; a higher rate of consumption is required for reproduction. We investigate the stationary behavior under steady food input, and the transient behavior of growth and decay when food is present initially but is not replenished. Under a periodic food supply, the system exhibits period-doubling bifurcations and chaos in certain ranges of the reproduction rate. Bifurcations and chaos are favored by a slow reproduction rate and a long period of food-supply oscillation.

Microbial Character Related Sulfur Cycle under Dynamic Environmental Factors Based on the Microbial Population Analysis in Sewerage System.

Science.gov (United States)

Dong, Qian; Shi, Hanchang; Liu, Yanchen

2017-01-01

The undesired sulfur cycle derived by microbial population can ultimately causes the serious problems of sewerage systems. However, the microbial community characters under dynamic environment factors in actual sewerage system is still not enough. This current study aimed to character the distributions and compositions of microbial communities that participate in the sulfur cycle under the dynamic environmental conditions in a local sewerage system. To accomplish this, microbial community compositions were assessed using 454 high-throughput sequencing (16S rDNA) combined with dsrB gene-based denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis. The results indicated that a higher diversity of microbial species was present at locations in sewers with high concentrations of H 2 S. Actinobacteria and Proteobacteria were dominant in the sewerage system, while Actinobacteria alone were dominant in regions with high concentrations of H 2 S. Specifically, the unique operational taxonomic units could aid to characterize the distinct microbial communities within a sewerage manhole. The proportion of sulfate-reducing bacteria, each sulfur-oxidizing bacteria (SOB) were strongly correlated with the liquid parameters (DO, ORP, COD, Sulfide, NH 3 -N), while the Mycobacterium and Acidophilic SOB (M&A) was strongly correlated with gaseous factors within the sewer, such as H 2 S, CH 4 , and CO. Identifying the distributions and proportions of critical microbial communities within sewerage systems could provide insights into how the microbial sulfur cycle is affected by the dynamic environmental conditions that exist in sewers and might be useful for explaining the potential sewerage problems.

Fish population dynamics

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Gulland, J. A

1977-01-01

This book describes how the dynamics of fish populations can be analysed in terms of the factors affecting their rates of growth, mortality and reproduction, with particular emphasis on the effects of fishing...

Effects of constant immigration on the dynamics and persistence of stable and unstable Drosophila populations

Science.gov (United States)

Dey, Snigdhadip; Joshi, Amitabh

2013-01-01

Constant immigration can stabilize population size fluctuations but its effects on extinction remain unexplored. We show that constant immigration significantly reduced extinction in fruitfly populations with relatively stable or unstable dynamics. In unstable populations with oscillations of amplitude around 1.5 times the mean population size, persistence and constancy were unrelated. Low immigration enhanced persistence without affecting constancy whereas high immigration increased constancy without enhancing persistence. In relatively stable populations with erratic fluctuations of amplitude close to the mean population size, both low and high immigration enhanced persistence. In these populations, the amplitude of fluctuations relative to mean population size went down due to immigration, and their dynamics were altered to low-period cycles. The effects of immigration on the population size distribution and intrinsic dynamics of stable versus unstable populations differed considerably, suggesting that the mechanisms by which immigration reduced extinction risk depended on underlying dynamics in complex ways. PMID:23470546

Population dynamics at high Reynolds number

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Perlekar, P.; Benzi, R.; Nelson, D.R.; Toschi, F.

2010-01-01

We study the statistical properties of population dynamics evolving in a realistic two-dimensional compressible turbulent velocity field. We show that the interplay between turbulent dynamics and population growth and saturation leads to quasi-localization and a remarkable reduction in the carrying

The basic approach to age-structured population dynamics models, methods and numerics

CERN Document Server

Iannelli, Mimmo

2017-01-01

This book provides an introduction to age-structured population modeling which emphasises the connection between mathematical theory and underlying biological assumptions. Through the rigorous development of the linear theory and the nonlinear theory alongside numerics, the authors explore classical equations that describe the dynamics of certain ecological systems. Modeling aspects are discussed to show how relevant problems in the fields of demography, ecology, and epidemiology can be formulated and treated within the theory. In particular, the book presents extensions of age-structured modelling to the spread of diseases and epidemics while also addressing the issue of regularity of solutions, the asymptotic behaviour of solutions, and numerical approximation. With sections on transmission models, non-autonomous models and global dynamics, this book fills a gap in the literature on theoretical population dynamics. The Basic Approach to Age-Structured Population Dynamics will appeal to graduate students an...

Dynamical systems in population biology

CERN Document Server

Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

2017-01-01

This research monograph provides an introduction to the theory of nonautonomous semiflows with applications to population dynamics. It develops dynamical system approaches to various evolutionary equations such as difference, ordinary, functional, and partial differential equations, and pays more attention to periodic and almost periodic phenomena. The presentation includes persistence theory, monotone dynamics, periodic and almost periodic semiflows, basic reproduction ratios, traveling waves, and global analysis of prototypical population models in ecology and epidemiology. Research mathematicians working with nonlinear dynamics, particularly those interested in applications to biology, will find this book useful. It may also be used as a textbook or as supplementary reading for a graduate special topics course on the theory and applications of dynamical systems. Dr. Xiao-Qiang Zhao is a University Research Professor at Memorial University of Newfoundland, Canada. His main research interests involve applied...

Neural Population Dynamics during Reaching Are Better Explained by a Dynamical System than Representational Tuning.

Science.gov (United States)

Michaels, Jonathan A; Dann, Benjamin; Scherberger, Hansjörg

2016-11-01

Recent models of movement generation in motor cortex have sought to explain neural activity not as a function of movement parameters, known as representational models, but as a dynamical system acting at the level of the population. Despite evidence supporting this framework, the evaluation of representational models and their integration with dynamical systems is incomplete in the literature. Using a representational velocity-tuning based simulation of center-out reaching, we show that incorporating variable latency offsets between neural activity and kinematics is sufficient to generate rotational dynamics at the level of neural populations, a phenomenon observed in motor cortex. However, we developed a covariance-matched permutation test (CMPT) that reassigns neural data between task conditions independently for each neuron while maintaining overall neuron-to-neuron relationships, revealing that rotations based on the representational model did not uniquely depend on the underlying condition structure. In contrast, rotations based on either a dynamical model or motor cortex data depend on this relationship, providing evidence that the dynamical model more readily explains motor cortex activity. Importantly, implementing a recurrent neural network we demonstrate that both representational tuning properties and rotational dynamics emerge, providing evidence that a dynamical system can reproduce previous findings of representational tuning. Finally, using motor cortex data in combination with the CMPT, we show that results based on small numbers of neurons or conditions should be interpreted cautiously, potentially informing future experimental design. Together, our findings reinforce the view that representational models lack the explanatory power to describe complex aspects of single neuron and population level activity.

Dynamic Pricing in Cloud Manufacturing Systems under Combined Effects of Consumer Structure, Negotiation, and Demand

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wei Peng

2017-01-01

Full Text Available In this study, we proposed a game-theory based framework to model the dynamic pricing process in the cloud manufacturing (CMfg system. We considered a service provider (SP, a broker agent (BA, and a dynamic service demander (SD population that is composed of price takers and bargainers in this study. The pricing processes under linear demand and constant elasticity demand were modeled, respectively. The combined effects of SD population structure, negotiation, and demand forms on the SP’s and the BA’s equilibrium prices and expected revenues were examined. We found that the SP’s optimal wholesale price, the BA’s optimal reservation price, and posted price all increase with the proportion of price takers under linear demand but decrease with it under constant elasticity demand. We also found that the BA’s optimal reservation price increases with bargainers’ power no matter under what kind of demand. Through analyzing the participants’ revenues, we showed that a dynamic SD population with a high ratio of price takers would benefit the SP and the BA.

Seasonal population dynamics of Homalodisca vitripennis (Hemiptera: Cicadellidae) in sweet orange trees maintained under continuous deficit irrigation.

Science.gov (United States)

Krugner, Rodrigo; Groves, Russell L; Johnson, Marshall W; Flores, Arnel P; Hagler, James R; Morse, Joseph G

2009-06-01

A 2-yr study was conducted in a citrus orchard (Citrus sinensis L. Osbeck cultivar Valencia) to determine the influence of plant water stress on the population dynamics of glassy-winged sharpshooter, Homalodisca vitripennis (Germar). Experimental treatments included irrigation at 100% of the crop evapotranspiration rate (ET(c)) and continuous deficit-irrigation regimens at 80 and 60% ET(c). Microclimate and plant conditions monitored included temperature and humidity in the tree canopy, leaf surface temperature, water potential, and fruit quality and yield. Glassy-winged sharpshooter population densities and activity were monitored weekly by a combination of visual inspections, beat net sampling, and trapping. Glassy-winged sharpshooter populations were negatively affected by severe plant water stress; however, population densities were not linearly related to decreasing water availability in plants. Citrus trees irrigated at 60% ET(c) had significantly warmer leaves, lower xylem water potential, and consequently hosted fewer glassy-winged sharpshooter eggs, nymphs, and adults than trees irrigated at 80% ET(c). Citrus trees irrigated at 100% ET(c) hosted similar numbers of glassy-winged sharpshooter stages as trees irrigated at 60% ET(c) and a lower number of glassy-winged sharpshooter nymphs than the 80% ET(c) treatment, specifically during the nymphal density peak in mid-April to early July. Irrigation treatments did not affect populations of monitored natural enemies. Although the adult glassy-winged sharpshooter population was reduced, on average, by 50% in trees under severe water stress, the total number of fruit and number of fruit across several fruit grade categories were significantly lower in the 60% ET(c) than in the 80 and 100% ET(c) irrigation treatments.

Allee effects on population dynamics with delay

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Celik, C.; Merdan, H.; Duman, O.; Akin, O.

2008-01-01

In this paper, we study the stability analysis of equilibrium points of population dynamics with delay when the Allee effect occurs at low population density. Mainly, our mathematical results and numerical simulations point to the stabilizing effect of the Allee effects on population dynamics with delay

Structural stability of nonlinear population dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

Cenci, Simone; Saavedra, Serguei

2018-01-01

In population dynamics, the concept of structural stability has been used to quantify the tolerance of a system to environmental perturbations. Yet, measuring the structural stability of nonlinear dynamical systems remains a challenging task. Focusing on the classic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, because of the linearity of the functional response, it has been possible to measure the conditions compatible with a structurally stable system. However, the functional response of biological communities is not always well approximated by deterministic linear functions. Thus, it is unclear the extent to which this linear approach can be generalized to other population dynamics models. Here, we show that the same approach used to investigate the classic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, which is called the structural approach, can be applied to a much larger class of nonlinear models. This class covers a large number of nonlinear functional responses that have been intensively investigated both theoretically and experimentally. We also investigate the applicability of the structural approach to stochastic dynamical systems and we provide a measure of structural stability for finite populations. Overall, we show that the structural approach can provide reliable and tractable information about the qualitative behavior of many nonlinear dynamical systems.

Structural stability of nonlinear population dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Cenci, Simone; Saavedra, Serguei

2018-01-01

In population dynamics, the concept of structural stability has been used to quantify the tolerance of a system to environmental perturbations. Yet, measuring the structural stability of nonlinear dynamical systems remains a challenging task. Focusing on the classic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, because of the linearity of the functional response, it has been possible to measure the conditions compatible with a structurally stable system. However, the functional response of biological communities is not always well approximated by deterministic linear functions. Thus, it is unclear the extent to which this linear approach can be generalized to other population dynamics models. Here, we show that the same approach used to investigate the classic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, which is called the structural approach, can be applied to a much larger class of nonlinear models. This class covers a large number of nonlinear functional responses that have been intensively investigated both theoretically and experimentally. We also investigate the applicability of the structural approach to stochastic dynamical systems and we provide a measure of structural stability for finite populations. Overall, we show that the structural approach can provide reliable and tractable information about the qualitative behavior of many nonlinear dynamical systems.

Population dynamics on heterogeneous bacterial substrates

Science.gov (United States)

Mobius, Wolfram; Murray, Andrew W.; Nelson, David R.

2012-02-01

How species invade new territories and how these range expansions influence the population's genotypes are important questions in the field of population genetics. The majority of work addressing these questions focuses on homogeneous environments. Much less is known about the population dynamics and population genetics when the environmental conditions are heterogeneous in space. To better understand range expansions in two-dimensional heterogeneous environments, we employ a system of bacteria and bacteriophage, the viruses of bacteria. Thereby, the bacteria constitute the environment in which a population of bacteriophages expands. The spread of phage constitutes itself in lysis of bacteria and thus formation of clear regions on bacterial lawns, called plaques. We study the population dynamics and genetics of the expanding page for various patterns of environments.

Population dynamics in variable environments

CERN Document Server

Tuljapurkar, Shripad

1990-01-01

Demography relates observable facts about individuals to the dynamics of populations. If the dynamics are linear and do not change over time, the classical theory of Lotka (1907) and Leslie (1945) is the central tool of demography. This book addresses the situation when the assumption of constancy is dropped. In many practical situations, a population will display unpredictable variation over time in its vital rates, which must then be described in statistical terms. Most of this book is concerned with the theory of populations which are subject to random temporal changes in their vital rates, although other kinds of variation (e. g. , cyclical) are also dealt with. The central questions are: how does temporal variation work its way into a population's future, and how does it affect our interpretation of a population's past. The results here are directed at demographers of humans and at popula­ tion biologists. The uneven mathematical level is dictated by the material, but the book should be accessible to re...

Population dynamical responses to climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Forchhammer, Mads; Schmidt, Niels Martin; Høye, Toke Thomas

2008-01-01

approaches, we analyse concurrently the influence of climatic variability and trophic interactions on the temporal population dynamics of species in the terrestrial vertebrate community at Zackenberg. We describe and contrast the population dynamics of three predator species (arctic fox Alopex lagopus, stoat...... of arctic fox were not significantly related to changes in lemming abundance, both the stoat and the breeding of long-tailed skua were mainly related to lemming dynamics. The predator-prey system at Zackenberg differentiates from previously described systems in high-arctic Greenland, which, we suggest...

Nonlinear dynamics in a business-cycle model with logistic population growth

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brianzoni, Serena; Mammana, Cristiana; Michetti, Elisabetta

2009-01-01

We consider a discrete-time growth model of the Solow type where workers and shareholders have different but constant saving rates and the population growth dynamics is described by the logistic equation able to exhibit complicated dynamics. We show conditions for the resulting system having a compact global attractor and we describe its structure. We also perform a mainly numerical analysis using the critical lines method able to describe the strange attractor and the absorbing area, in order to show how cyclical or complex fluctuations may be produced in a business-cycle model. We study the dynamic behaviour of the model under different ranges of the main parameters, i.e. the elasticity of substitution between the two production factors and the one in the logistic equation (namely μ). We prove the existence of complex dynamics when the elasticity of substitution between production factors drops below one (so that capital income declines) or μ increases (so that the amplitude of movements in the population growth rate increases).

Potential impact of harvesting on the population dynamics of two epiphytic bromeliads

Science.gov (United States)

Toledo-Aceves, Tarin; Hernández-Apolinar, Mariana; Valverde, Teresa

2014-08-01

Large numbers of epiphytes are extracted from cloud forests for ornamental use and illegal trade in Latin America. We examined the potential effects of different harvesting regimes on the population dynamics of the epiphytic bromeliads Tillandsia multicaulis and Tillandsia punctulata. The population dynamics of these species were studied over a 2-year period in a tropical montane cloud forest in Veracruz, Mexico. Prospective and retrospective analyses were used to identify which demographic processes and life-cycle stages make the largest relative contribution to variation in population growth rate (λ). The effect of simulated harvesting levels on population growth rates was analysed for both species. λ of both populations was highly influenced by survival (stasis), to a lesser extent by growth, and only slightly by fecundity. Vegetative growth played a central role in the population dynamics of these organisms. The λ value of the studied populations did not differ significantly from unity: T. multicaulis λ (95% confidence interval) = 0.982 (0.897-1.060) and T. punctulata λ = 0.967 (0.815-1.051), suggesting population stability. However, numerical simulation of different levels of extraction showed that λ would drop substantially even under very low (2%) harvesting levels. Matrix analysis revealed that T. multicaulis and T. punctulata populations are likely to decline and therefore commercial harvesting would be unsustainable. Based on these findings, management recommendations are outlined.

Market Squid Population Dynamics

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset contains population dynamics data on paralarvae, juvenile and adult market squid collected off California and the US Pacific Northwest. These data were...

An age structured model for obesity prevalence dynamics in populations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gilberto González Parra

2010-08-01

Full Text Available Objective. Modeling the correlation of the development of obesity in a population with age and time and predict the dynamics of the correlation of the development of obesity in a population with age and time under different scenarios in Valencia (Spain. Materials and methods. An age structured mathematical model is used to describe the future dynamics of obesity prevalence for different ages in human population with excess weight. Simulation of the model with parameters estimated using the Health Survey of the Region of Valencia 2000 (4.319 interviews and Health Survey of the Region of Valencia 2005 (4.012 interviews. The model considers only overweight and obese populations since these subpopulations are the most relevant on obesity health concern. Results. The model allows predicting and studying the prevalence of obesity for each age. Results showed an increasing trend of obesity in the following years in well accordance with the trend observed in several countries. Conclusions. Based on the numerical simulations it is possible to conclude that the age structured mathematical model is suitable to forecast the obesity epidemic in each age group in different countries. Additionally, this type of models may be applied to study other characteristics of other populations such animal populations.

Population dynamics and population control of Galium aparine L.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Weide, van der R.Y.

1993-01-01

The population biology of Galium aparine L. needs to be better understood, in order to be able to rationalize decisions about the short- and long-term control of this weed species for different cropping practices.

A population dynamics model was developed to

Application of System Dynamics Methodology in Population Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

August Turina

2009-09-01

Full Text Available The goal of this work is to present the application of system dynamics and system thinking, as well as the advantages and possible defects of this analytic approach, in order to improve the analysis of complex systems such as population and, thereby, to monitor more effectively the underlying causes of migrations. This methodology has long been present in interdisciplinary scientific circles, but its scientific contribution has not been sufficiently applied in analysis practice in Croatia. Namely, the major part of system analysis is focused on detailed complexity rather than on dynamic complexity. Generally, the science of complexity deals with emergence, innovation, learning and adaptation. Complexity is viewed according to the number of system components, or through a number of combinations that must be continually analyzed in order to understand and consequently provide adequate decisions. Simulations containing thousands of variables and complex arrays of details distract overall attention from the basic cause patterns and key inter-relations emerging and prevailing within an analyzed population. Systems thinking offers a holistic and integral perspective for observation of the world.

Feedback between Population and Evolutionary Dynamics Determines the Fate of Social Microbial Populations

Science.gov (United States)

Sanchez, Alvaro; Gore, Jeff

2013-01-01

The evolutionary spread of cheater strategies can destabilize populations engaging in social cooperative behaviors, thus demonstrating that evolutionary changes can have profound implications for population dynamics. At the same time, the relative fitness of cooperative traits often depends upon population density, thus leading to the potential for bi-directional coupling between population density and the evolution of a cooperative trait. Despite the potential importance of these eco-evolutionary feedback loops in social species, they have not yet been demonstrated experimentally and their ecological implications are poorly understood. Here, we demonstrate the presence of a strong feedback loop between population dynamics and the evolutionary dynamics of a social microbial gene, SUC2, in laboratory yeast populations whose cooperative growth is mediated by the SUC2 gene. We directly visualize eco-evolutionary trajectories of hundreds of populations over 50–100 generations, allowing us to characterize the phase space describing the interplay of evolution and ecology in this system. Small populations collapse despite continual evolution towards increased cooperative allele frequencies; large populations with a sufficient number of cooperators “spiral” to a stable state of coexistence between cooperator and cheater strategies. The presence of cheaters does not significantly affect the equilibrium population density, but it does reduce the resilience of the population as well as its ability to adapt to a rapidly deteriorating environment. Our results demonstrate the potential ecological importance of coupling between evolutionary dynamics and the population dynamics of cooperatively growing organisms, particularly in microbes. Our study suggests that this interaction may need to be considered in order to explain intraspecific variability in cooperative behaviors, and also that this feedback between evolution and ecology can critically affect the demographic fate

feedback between population and evolutionary dynamics determines the fate of social microbial populations.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alvaro Sanchez

Full Text Available The evolutionary spread of cheater strategies can destabilize populations engaging in social cooperative behaviors, thus demonstrating that evolutionary changes can have profound implications for population dynamics. At the same time, the relative fitness of cooperative traits often depends upon population density, thus leading to the potential for bi-directional coupling between population density and the evolution of a cooperative trait. Despite the potential importance of these eco-evolutionary feedback loops in social species, they have not yet been demonstrated experimentally and their ecological implications are poorly understood. Here, we demonstrate the presence of a strong feedback loop between population dynamics and the evolutionary dynamics of a social microbial gene, SUC2, in laboratory yeast populations whose cooperative growth is mediated by the SUC2 gene. We directly visualize eco-evolutionary trajectories of hundreds of populations over 50-100 generations, allowing us to characterize the phase space describing the interplay of evolution and ecology in this system. Small populations collapse despite continual evolution towards increased cooperative allele frequencies; large populations with a sufficient number of cooperators "spiral" to a stable state of coexistence between cooperator and cheater strategies. The presence of cheaters does not significantly affect the equilibrium population density, but it does reduce the resilience of the population as well as its ability to adapt to a rapidly deteriorating environment. Our results demonstrate the potential ecological importance of coupling between evolutionary dynamics and the population dynamics of cooperatively growing organisms, particularly in microbes. Our study suggests that this interaction may need to be considered in order to explain intraspecific variability in cooperative behaviors, and also that this feedback between evolution and ecology can critically affect the

Demography of the Early Neolithic Population in Central Balkans: Population Dynamics Reconstruction Using Summed Radiocarbon Probability Distributions.

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Marko Porčić

Full Text Available The Central Balkans region is of great importance for understanding the spread of the Neolithic in Europe but the Early Neolithic population dynamics of the region is unknown. In this study we apply the method of summed calibrated probability distributions to a set of published radiocarbon dates from the Republic of Serbia in order to reconstruct population dynamics in the Early Neolithic in this part of the Central Balkans. The results indicate that there was a significant population growth after ~6200 calBC, when the Neolithic was introduced into the region, followed by a bust at the end of the Early Neolithic phase (~5400 calBC. These results are broadly consistent with the predictions of the Neolithic Demographic Transition theory and the patterns of population booms and busts detected in other regions of Europe. These results suggest that the cultural process that underlies the patterns observed in Central and Western Europe was also in operation in the Central Balkan Neolithic and that the population increase component of this process can be considered as an important factor for the spread of the Neolithic as envisioned in the demic diffusion hypothesis.

Periodic matrix models for seasonal dynamics of structured populations with application to a seabird population.

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Cushing, J M; Henson, Shandelle M

2018-02-03

For structured populations with an annual breeding season, life-stage interactions and behavioral tactics may occur on a faster time scale than that of population dynamics. Motivated by recent field studies of the effect of rising sea surface temperature (SST) on within-breeding-season behaviors in colonial seabirds, we formulate and analyze a general class of discrete-time matrix models designed to account for changes in behavioral tactics within the breeding season and their dynamic consequences at the population level across breeding seasons. As a specific example, we focus on egg cannibalism and the daily reproductive synchrony observed in seabirds. Using the model, we investigate circumstances under which these life history tactics can be beneficial or non-beneficial at the population level in light of the expected continued rise in SST. Using bifurcation theoretic techniques, we study the nature of non-extinction, seasonal cycles as a function of environmental resource availability as they are created upon destabilization of the extinction state. Of particular interest are backward bifurcations in that they typically create strong Allee effects in population models which, in turn, lead to the benefit of possible (initial condition dependent) survival in adverse environments. We find that positive density effects (component Allee effects) due to increased adult survival from cannibalism and the propensity of females to synchronize daily egg laying can produce a strong Allee effect due to a backward bifurcation.

Dynamic analysis of a parasite population model

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Sibona, G. J.; Condat, C. A.

2002-03-01

We study the dynamics of a model that describes the competitive interaction between an invading species (a parasite) and its antibodies in an living being. This model was recently used to examine the dynamical competition between Tripanosoma cruzi and its antibodies during the acute phase of Chagas' disease. Depending on the antibody properties, the model yields three types of outcomes, corresponding, respectively, to healing, chronic disease, and host death. Here, we study the dynamics of the parasite-antibody interaction with the help of simulations, obtaining phase trajectories and phase diagrams for the system. We show that, under certain conditions, the size of the parasite inoculation can be crucial for the infection outcome and that a retardation in the stimulated production of an antibody species may result in the parasite gaining a definitive advantage. We also find a criterion for the relative sizes of the parameters that are required if parasite-generated decoys are indeed to help the invasion. Decoys may also induce a qualitatively different outcome: a limit cycle for the antibody-parasite population phase trajectories.

Successional changes in trophic interactions support a mechanistic model of post-fire population dynamics.

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Smith, Annabel L

2018-01-01

Models based on functional traits have limited power in predicting how animal populations respond to disturbance because they do not capture the range of demographic and biological factors that drive population dynamics, including variation in trophic interactions. I tested the hypothesis that successional changes in vegetation structure, which affected invertebrate abundance, would influence growth rates and body condition in the early-successional, insectivorous gecko Nephrurus stellatus. I captured geckos at 17 woodland sites spanning a succession gradient from 2 to 48 years post-fire. Body condition and growth rates were analysed as a function of the best-fitting fire-related predictor (invertebrate abundance or time since fire) with different combinations of the co-variates age, sex and location. Body condition in the whole population was positively affected by increasing invertebrate abundance and, in the adult population, this effect was most pronounced for females. There was strong support for a decline in growth rates in weight with time since fire. The results suggest that increased early-successional invertebrate abundance has filtered through to a higher trophic level with physiological benefits for insectivorous geckos. I integrated the new findings about trophic interactions into a general conceptual model of mechanisms underlying post-fire population dynamics based on a long-term research programme. The model highlights how greater food availability during early succession could drive rapid population growth by contributing to previously reported enhanced reproduction and dispersal. This study provides a framework to understand links between ecological and physiological traits underlying post-fire population dynamics.

An individual-based probabilistic model for simulating fisheries population dynamics

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Jie Cao

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The purpose of stock assessment is to support managers to provide intelligent decisions regarding removal from fish populations. Errors in assessment models may have devastating impacts on the population fitness and negative impacts on the economy of the resource users. Thus, accuracte estimations of population size, growth rates are critical for success. Evaluating and testing the behavior and performance of stock assessment models and assessing the consequences of model mis-specification and the impact of management strategies requires an operating model that accurately describe the dynamics of the target species, and can resolve spatial and seasonal changes. In addition, the most thorough evaluations of assessment models use an operating model that takes a different form than the assessment model. This paper presents an individual-based probabilistic model used to simulate the complex dynamics of populations and their associated fisheries. Various components of population dynamics are expressed as random Bernoulli trials in the model and detailed life and fishery histories of each individual are tracked over their life span. The simulation model is designed to be flexible so it can be used for different species and fisheries. It can simulate mixing among multiple stocks and link stock-recruit relationships to environmental factors. Furthermore, the model allows for flexibility in sub-models (e.g., growth and recruitment and model assumptions (e.g., age- or size-dependent selectivity. This model enables the user to conduct various simulation studies, including testing the performance of assessment models under different assumptions, assessing the impacts of model mis-specification and evaluating management strategies.

Nonlinear dynamics of trions under strong optical excitation in monolayer MoSe2.

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Ye, Jialiang; Yan, Tengfei; Niu, Binghui; Li, Ying; Zhang, Xinhui

2018-02-05

By employing ultrafast transient reflection measurements based on two-color pump-probe spectroscopy, the population and valley polarization dynamics of trions in monolayer MoSe 2 were investigated at relatively high excitation densities under near-resonant excitation. Both the nonlinear dynamic photobleaching of the trion resonance and the redshift of the exciton resonance were found to be responsible for the excitation-energy- and density-dependent transient reflection change as a result of many-body interactions. Furthermore, from the polarization-resolved measurements, it was revealed that the initial fast population and polarization decay process upon strong photoexcitation observed for trions was determined by trion formation, transient phase-space filling and the short valley lifetime of excitons. The results provide a basic understanding of the nonlinear dynamics of population and valley depolarization of trions, as well as exciton-trion correlation in atomically thin MoSe 2 and other transition metal dichalcogenide materials.

How Resource Phenology Affects Consumer Population Dynamics.

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Bewick, Sharon; Cantrell, R Stephen; Cosner, Chris; Fagan, William F

2016-02-01

Climate change drives uneven phenology shifts across taxa, and this can result in changes to the phenological match between interacting species. Shifts in the relative phenology of partner species are well documented, but few studies have addressed the effects of such changes on population dynamics. To explore this, we develop a phenologically explicit model describing consumer-resource interactions. Focusing on scenarios for univoltine insects, we show how changes in resource phenology can be reinterpreted as transformations in the year-to-year recursion relationships defining consumer population dynamics. This perspective provides a straightforward path for interpreting the long-term population consequences of phenology change. Specifically, by relating the outcome of phenological shifts to species traits governing recursion relationships (e.g., consumer fecundity or competitive scenario), we demonstrate how changes in relative phenology can force systems into different dynamical regimes, with major implications for resource management, conservation, and other areas of applied dynamics.

A Stochastic Framework for Modeling the Population Dynamics of Convective Clouds

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Hagos, Samson; Feng, Zhe; Plant, Robert S.; Houze, Robert A.; Xiao, Heng

2018-02-01

A stochastic prognostic framework for modeling the population dynamics of convective clouds and representing them in climate models is proposed. The framework follows the nonequilibrium statistical mechanical approach to constructing a master equation for representing the evolution of the number of convective cells of a specific size and their associated cloud-base mass flux, given a large-scale forcing. In this framework, referred to as STOchastic framework for Modeling Population dynamics of convective clouds (STOMP), the evolution of convective cell size is predicted from three key characteristics of convective cells: (i) the probability of growth, (ii) the probability of decay, and (iii) the cloud-base mass flux. STOMP models are constructed and evaluated against CPOL radar observations at Darwin and convection permitting model (CPM) simulations. Multiple models are constructed under various assumptions regarding these three key parameters and the realisms of these models are evaluated. It is shown that in a model where convective plumes prefer to aggregate spatially and the cloud-base mass flux is a nonlinear function of convective cell area, the mass flux manifests a recharge-discharge behavior under steady forcing. Such a model also produces observed behavior of convective cell populations and CPM simulated cloud-base mass flux variability under diurnally varying forcing. In addition to its use in developing understanding of convection processes and the controls on convective cell size distributions, this modeling framework is also designed to serve as a nonequilibrium closure formulations for spectral mass flux parameterizations.

Modelling the Dynamics of an Aedes albopictus Population

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thomas Anung Basuki

2010-08-01

Full Text Available We present a methodology for modelling population dynamics with formal means of computer science. This allows unambiguous description of systems and application of analysis tools such as simulators and model checkers. In particular, the dynamics of a population of Aedes albopictus (a species of mosquito and its modelling with the Stochastic Calculus of Looping Sequences (Stochastic CLS are considered. The use of Stochastic CLS to model population dynamics requires an extension which allows environmental events (such as changes in the temperature and rainfalls to be taken into account. A simulator for the constructed model is developed via translation into the specification language Maude, and used to compare the dynamics obtained from the model with real data.

Population ecology, nonlinear dynamics, and social evolution. I. Associations among nonrelatives.

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Avilés, Leticia; Abbot, Patrick; Cutter, Asher D

2002-02-01

Using an individual-based and genetically explicit simulation model, we explore the evolution of sociality within a population-ecology and nonlinear-dynamics framework. Assuming that individual fitness is a unimodal function of group size and that cooperation may carry a relative fitness cost, we consider the evolution of one-generation breeding associations among nonrelatives. We explore how parameters such as the intrinsic rate of growth and group and global carrying capacities may influence social evolution and how social evolution may, in turn, influence and be influenced by emerging group-level and population-wide dynamics. We find that group living and cooperation evolve under a wide range of parameter values, even when cooperation is costly and the interactions can be defined as altruistic. Greater levels of cooperation, however, did evolve when cooperation carried a low or no relative fitness cost. Larger group carrying capacities allowed the evolution of larger groups but also resulted in lower cooperative tendencies. When the intrinsic rate of growth was not too small and control of the global population size was density dependent, the evolution of large cooperative tendencies resulted in dynamically unstable groups and populations. These results are consistent with the existence and typical group sizes of organisms ranging from the pleometrotic ants to the colonial birds and the global population outbreaks and crashes characteristic of organisms such as the migratory locusts and the tree-killing bark beetles.

Spatially-Explicit Simulation Modeling of Ecological Response to Climate Change: Methodological Considerations in Predicting Shifting Population Dynamics of Infectious Disease Vectors

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Justin V. Remais

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Poikilothermic disease vectors can respond to altered climates through spatial changes in both population size and phenology. Quantitative descriptors to characterize, analyze and visualize these dynamic responses are lacking, particularly across large spatial domains. In order to demonstrate the value of a spatially explicit, dynamic modeling approach, we assessed spatial changes in the population dynamics of Ixodes scapularis, the Lyme disease vector, using a temperature-forced population model simulated across a grid of 4 × 4 km cells covering the eastern United States, using both modeled (Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF 3.2.1 baseline/current (2001–2004 and projected (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5; 2057–2059 climate data. Ten dynamic population features (DPFs were derived from simulated populations and analyzed spatially to characterize the regional population response to current and future climate across the domain. Each DPF under the current climate was assessed for its ability to discriminate observed Lyme disease risk and known vector presence/absence, using data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Peak vector population and month of peak vector population were the DPFs that performed best as predictors of current Lyme disease risk. When examined under baseline and projected climate scenarios, the spatial and temporal distributions of DPFs shift and the seasonal cycle of key questing life stages is compressed under some scenarios. Our results demonstrate the utility of spatial characterization, analysis and visualization of dynamic population responses—including altered phenology—of disease vectors to altered climate.

Spatially-Explicit Simulation Modeling of Ecological Response to Climate Change: Methodological Considerations in Predicting Shifting Population Dynamics of Infectious Disease Vectors.

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Dhingra, Radhika; Jimenez, Violeta; Chang, Howard H; Gambhir, Manoj; Fu, Joshua S; Liu, Yang; Remais, Justin V

2013-09-01

Poikilothermic disease vectors can respond to altered climates through spatial changes in both population size and phenology. Quantitative descriptors to characterize, analyze and visualize these dynamic responses are lacking, particularly across large spatial domains. In order to demonstrate the value of a spatially explicit, dynamic modeling approach, we assessed spatial changes in the population dynamics of Ixodes scapularis , the Lyme disease vector, using a temperature-forced population model simulated across a grid of 4 × 4 km cells covering the eastern United States, using both modeled (Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) 3.2.1) baseline/current (2001-2004) and projected (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5; 2057-2059) climate data. Ten dynamic population features (DPFs) were derived from simulated populations and analyzed spatially to characterize the regional population response to current and future climate across the domain. Each DPF under the current climate was assessed for its ability to discriminate observed Lyme disease risk and known vector presence/absence, using data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Peak vector population and month of peak vector population were the DPFs that performed best as predictors of current Lyme disease risk. When examined under baseline and projected climate scenarios, the spatial and temporal distributions of DPFs shift and the seasonal cycle of key questing life stages is compressed under some scenarios. Our results demonstrate the utility of spatial characterization, analysis and visualization of dynamic population responses-including altered phenology-of disease vectors to altered climate.

Modeling population dynamics of mitochondria in mammalian cells

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Kornick, Kellianne; Das, Moumita

Mitochondria are organelles located inside eukaryotic cells and are essential for several key cellular processes such as energy (ATP) production, cell signaling, differentiation, and apoptosis. All organisms are believed to have low levels of variation in mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA), and alterations in mtDNA are connected to a range of human health conditions, including epilepsy, heart failure, Parkinsons disease, diabetes, and multiple sclerosis. Therefore, understanding how changes in mtDNA accumulate over time and are correlated to changes in mitochondrial function and cell properties can have a profound impact on our understanding of cell physiology and the origins of some diseases. Motivated by this, we develop and study a mathematical model to determine which cellular parameters have the largest impact on mtDNA population dynamics. The model consists of coupled ODEs to describe subpopulations of healthy and dysfunctional mitochondria subject to mitochondrial fission, fusion, autophagy, and mutation. We study the time evolution and stability of each sub-population under specific selection biases and pressures by tuning specific terms in our model. Our results may provide insights into how sub-populations of mitochondria survive and evolve under different selection pressures. This work was supported by a Grant from the Moore Foundation.

Maintenance of algal endosymbionts in Paramecium bursaria: a simple model based on population dynamics.

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Iwai, Sosuke; Fujiwara, Kenji; Tamura, Takuro

2016-09-01

Algal endosymbiosis is widely distributed in eukaryotes including many protists and metazoans, and plays important roles in aquatic ecosystems, combining phagotrophy and phototrophy. To maintain a stable symbiotic relationship, endosymbiont population size in the host must be properly regulated and maintained at a constant level; however, the mechanisms underlying the maintenance of algal endosymbionts are still largely unknown. Here we investigate the population dynamics of the unicellular ciliate Paramecium bursaria and its Chlorella-like algal endosymbiont under various experimental conditions in a simple culture system. Our results suggest that endosymbiont population size in P. bursaria was not regulated by active processes such as cell division coupling between the two organisms, or partitioning of the endosymbionts at host cell division. Regardless, endosymbiont population size was eventually adjusted to a nearly constant level once cells were grown with light and nutrients. To explain this apparent regulation of population size, we propose a simple mechanism based on the different growth properties (specifically the nutrient requirements) of the two organisms, and based from this develop a mathematical model to describe the population dynamics of host and endosymbiont. The proposed mechanism and model may provide a basis for understanding the maintenance of algal endosymbionts. © 2015 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Stochastic population dynamics in populations of western terrestrial garter snakes with divergent life histories.

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Miller, David A; Clark, William R; Arnold, Stevan J; Bronikowski, Anne M

2011-08-01

Comparative evaluations of population dynamics in species with temporal and spatial variation in life-history traits are rare because they require long-term demographic time series from multiple populations. We present such an analysis using demographic data collected during the interval 1978-1996 for six populations of western terrestrial garter snakes (Thamnophis elegans) from two evolutionarily divergent ecotypes. Three replicate populations from a slow-living ecotype, found in mountain meadows of northeastern California, were characterized by individuals that develop slowly, mature late, reproduce infrequently with small reproductive effort, and live longer than individuals of three populations of a fast-living ecotype found at lakeshore locales. We constructed matrix population models for each of the populations based on 8-13 years of data per population and analyzed both deterministic dynamics based on mean annual vital rates and stochastic dynamics incorporating annual variation in vital rates. (1) Contributions of highly variable vital rates to fitness (lambda(s)) were buffered against the negative effects of stochastic variation, and this relationship was consistent with differences between the meadow (M-slow) and lakeshore (L-fast) ecotypes. (2) Annual variation in the proportion of gravid females had the greatest negative effect among all vital rates on lambda(s). The magnitude of variation in the proportion of gravid females and its effect on lambda(s) was greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. (3) Variation in the proportion of gravid females, in turn, depended on annual variation in prey availability, and its effect on lambda(s) was 4 23 times greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. In addition to differences in stochastic dynamics between ecotypes, we also found higher mean mortality rates across all age classes in the L-fast populations. Our results suggest that both deterministic and stochastic selective forces have affected the evolution of

Evolutionary dynamics with fluctuating population sizes and strong mutualism

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Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David R.

2015-08-01

Game theory ideas provide a useful framework for studying evolutionary dynamics in a well-mixed environment. This approach, however, typically enforces a strictly fixed overall population size, deemphasizing natural growth processes. We study a competitive Lotka-Volterra model, with number fluctuations, that accounts for natural population growth and encompasses interaction scenarios typical of evolutionary games. We show that, in an appropriate limit, the model describes standard evolutionary games with both genetic drift and overall population size fluctuations. However, there are also regimes where a varying population size can strongly influence the evolutionary dynamics. We focus on the strong mutualism scenario and demonstrate that standard evolutionary game theory fails to describe our simulation results. We then analytically and numerically determine fixation probabilities as well as mean fixation times using matched asymptotic expansions, taking into account the population size degree of freedom. These results elucidate the interplay between population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics in well-mixed systems.

Evolutionary dynamics with fluctuating population sizes and strong mutualism.

Science.gov (United States)

Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David R

2015-08-01

Game theory ideas provide a useful framework for studying evolutionary dynamics in a well-mixed environment. This approach, however, typically enforces a strictly fixed overall population size, deemphasizing natural growth processes. We study a competitive Lotka-Volterra model, with number fluctuations, that accounts for natural population growth and encompasses interaction scenarios typical of evolutionary games. We show that, in an appropriate limit, the model describes standard evolutionary games with both genetic drift and overall population size fluctuations. However, there are also regimes where a varying population size can strongly influence the evolutionary dynamics. We focus on the strong mutualism scenario and demonstrate that standard evolutionary game theory fails to describe our simulation results. We then analytically and numerically determine fixation probabilities as well as mean fixation times using matched asymptotic expansions, taking into account the population size degree of freedom. These results elucidate the interplay between population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics in well-mixed systems.

Biofilm population dynamics in a trickle-bed bioreactor used for the biodegradation of aromatic hydrocarbons from waste gas under transient conditions.

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Hekmat, D; Feuchtinger, A; Stephan, M; Vortmeyer, D

2004-04-01

The dynamics of a multispecies biofilm population in a laboratory-scale trickle-bed bioreactor for the treatment of waste gas was examined. The model pollutant was a VOC-mixture of polyalkylated benzenes called Solvesso 100. Fluorescence in-situ hybridization (FISH) was applied in order to characterise the population composition. The bioreactor was operated under transient conditions by applying pollutant concentration shifts and a starvation phase. Only about 10% of the biofilm mass were cells, the rest consisted of extracellular polymeric substances (EPS). The average fraction of Solvesso 100-degrading cells during pollutant supply periods was less than 10%. About 60% of the cells were saprophytes and about 30% were inactive cells. During pollutant concentration shift experiments, the bioreactor performance adapted within a few hours. The biofilm population exhibited a dependency upon the direction of the shifts. The population reacted within days after a shift-down and within weeks after a shift-up. The pollutant-degraders reacted significantly faster compared to the other cells. During the long-term starvation phase, a shift of the population composition took place. However, this change of composition as well as the degree of metabolic activity was completely reversible. A direct correlation between the biodegradation rate of the bioreactor and the number of pollutant-degrading cells present in the biofilm could not be obtained due to insufficient experimental evidence.

Population-level consequences of herbivory, changing climate, and source-sink dynamics on a long-lived invasive shrub.

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van Klinken, R D; Pichancourt, J B

2015-12-01

Long-lived plant species are highly valued environmentally, economically, and socially, but can also cause substantial harm as invaders. Realistic demographic predictions can guide management decisions, and are particularly valuable for long-lived species where population response times can be long. Long-lived species are also challenging, given population dynamics can be affected by factors as diverse as herbivory, climate, and dispersal. We developed a matrix model to evaluate the effects of herbivory by a leaf-feeding biological control agent released in Australia against a long-lived invasive shrub (mesquite, Leguminoseae: Prosopis spp.). The stage-structured, density-dependent model used an annual time step and 10 climatically diverse years of field data. Mesquite population demography is sensitive to source-sink dynamics as most seeds are consumed and redistributed spatially by livestock. In addition, individual mesquite plants, because they are long lived, experience natural climate variation that cycles over decadal scales, as well as anthropogenic climate change. The model therefore explicitly considered the effects of both net dispersal and climate variation. Herbivory strongly regulated mesquite populations through reduced growth and fertility, but additional mortality of older plants will be required to reach management goals within a reasonable time frame. Growth and survival of seeds and seedlings were correlated with daily soil moisture. As a result, population dynamics were sensitive to rainfall scenario, but population response times were typically slow (20-800 years to reach equilibrium or extinction) due to adult longevity. Equilibrium population densities were expected to remain 5% higher, and be more dynamic, if historical multi-decadal climate patterns persist, the effect being dampened by herbivory suppressing seed production irrespective of preceding rainfall. Dense infestations were unlikely to form under a drier climate, and required net

Analysis of Population Dynamics in World Economy

OpenAIRE

Martin, Gress

2011-01-01

Population dynamics is an important topic in current world economy. The size and growth of population have an impact on economic growth and development of individual countries and vice versa, economic development influences demographic variables in a country. The aim of the article is to analyze historical development of world population, population stock change and relations between population stock change and economic development.

Rapid evolution leads to differential population dynamics and top-down control in resurrected Daphnia populations.

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Goitom, Eyerusalem; Kilsdonk, Laurens J; Brans, Kristien; Jansen, Mieke; Lemmens, Pieter; De Meester, Luc

2018-01-01

There is growing evidence of rapid genetic adaptation of natural populations to environmental change, opening the perspective that evolutionary trait change may subsequently impact ecological processes such as population dynamics, community composition, and ecosystem functioning. To study such eco-evolutionary feedbacks in natural populations, however, requires samples across time. Here, we capitalize on a resurrection ecology study that documented rapid and adaptive evolution in a natural population of the water flea Daphnia magna in response to strong changes in predation pressure by fish, and carry out a follow-up mesocosm experiment to test whether the observed genetic changes influence population dynamics and top-down control of phytoplankton. We inoculated populations of the water flea D. magna derived from three time periods of the same natural population known to have genetically adapted to changes in predation pressure in replicate mesocosms and monitored both Daphnia population densities and phytoplankton biomass in the presence and absence of fish. Our results revealed differences in population dynamics and top-down control of algae between mesocosms harboring populations from the time period before, during, and after a peak in fish predation pressure caused by human fish stocking. The differences, however, deviated from our a priori expectations. An S-map approach on time series revealed that the interactions between adults and juveniles strongly impacted the dynamics of populations and their top-down control on algae in the mesocosms, and that the strength of these interactions was modulated by rapid evolution as it occurred in nature. Our study provides an example of an evolutionary response that fundamentally alters the processes structuring population dynamics and impacts ecosystem features.

Population and phase dynamics of F=1 spinor condensates in an external magnetic field

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Romano, D.R.; Passos, E.J.V. de

2004-01-01

We show that the classical dynamics underlying the mean-field description of homogeneous mixtures of spinor F=1 Bose-Einstein condensates in an external magnetic field is integrable as a consequence of number conservation and axial symmetry in spin space. The population dynamics depends only on the quadratic term of the Zeeman energy and on the strength of the spin-dependent term of the atom-atom interaction. We determine the equilibrium populations as function of the ratio of these two quantities and the miscibility of the hyperfine components in the ground state spinors are thoroughly discussed. Outside the equilibrium, the populations are always a periodic function of time where the periodic motion can be a libration or a rotation. Our studies also indicate the absence of metastability

Modeling population dynamics of solitary bees in relation to habitat quality

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K. Ulbrich

2001-09-01

Full Text Available To understand associations between habitat, individual behaviour, and population development of solitary bees we developed an individual-based model. This model is based on field observations of Osmia rufa (L (Apoideae: Megachilidae and describes population dynamics of solitary bees. Model rules are focused on maternal investment, in particular on the female’s individual decisions about sex and size of progeny. In the present paper, we address the effect of habitat quality on population size and sex ratio. We examine how food availability and the risk of parasitism influence long-term population development. It can be shown how population properties result from individual maternal investment which is described as a functional response to fluctuations of environmental conditions. We found that habitat quality can be expressed in terms of cell construction time. This interface factor influences the rate of open cell parasitism as the risk for a brood cell to be parasitized is positively correlated with the time of its construction. Under conditions of scarce food and under resulting long provision times even low parasitism rates lead to a high extinction risk of the population, whereas in rich habitats probabilities of extinction are low even for high rates of parasitism. For a given level of food and parasitism there is an optimum time for cell construction which minimizes the extinction risk of the population. Model results demonstrate that under fluctuating environmental conditions, decreasing habitat quality leads to a decrease in population size but also to rapid shifts in sex ratio.

About a dynamic model of interaction of insect population with food plant

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L.V. Nedorezov

2011-12-01

Full Text Available In present paper there is the consideration of mathematical model of food plant (resource - consumer (insect population - pathogen system dynamics which is constructed as a system of ordinary differential equations. The dynamic regimes of model are analyzed and, in particular, with the help of numerical methods it is shown that trigger regimes (regimes with two stable attractors can be realized in model under very simple assumptions about ecological and intra-population processes functioning. Within the framework of model it was assumed that the rate of food flow into the system is constant and functioning of intra-population selfregulative mechanisms can be described by Verhulst model. As it was found, trigger regimes are different with respect to their properties: in particular, in model the trigger regimes with one of stable stationary points on the coordinate plane can be realized (it corresponds to the situation when sick individuals in population are absent and their appearance in small volume leads to their asymptotic elimination; also the regimes with several nonzero stationary states and stable periodic fluctuations were found.

Emergence of cooperation in phenotypically heterogeneous populations: a replicator dynamics analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barreira da Silva Rocha, A; Escobedo, R; Laruelle, A

2015-01-01

The emergence of cooperation is analyzed in heterogeneous populations where two kinds of individuals exist according to their phenotypic appearance. Phenotype recognition is assumed for all individuals: individuals are able to identify the type of every other individual, but fail to recognize their own type. Individuals thus behave under partial information conditions. The interactions between individuals are described by the snowdrift game, where individuals can either cooperate or defect. The evolution of such populations is studied in the framework of evolutionary game theory by means of the replicator dynamics. Overlapping generations are considered, so the replicator equations are formulated in discrete-time form. The stability analysis of the dynamical system is carried out and a detailed description of the behavior of trajectories starting from the interior of the state-space is given. We find that the four monomorphic states are unstable and that a polymorphic state exists which is a global attractor for non-degenerate initial states of the population. The result for the discrete-time replicator coincides with the one of the continuous case. (paper)

Stage-Structured Population Dynamics of AEDES AEGYPTI

Science.gov (United States)

Yusoff, Nuraini; Budin, Harun; Ismail, Salemah

Aedes aegypti is the main vector in the transmission of dengue fever, a vector-borne disease affecting world population living in tropical and sub-tropical countries. Better understanding of the dynamics of its population growth will help in the efforts of controlling the spread of this disease. In looking at the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti, this paper explored the stage-structured modeling of the population growth of the mosquito using the matrix population model. The life cycle of the mosquito was divided into five stages: eggs, larvae, pupae, adult1 and adult2. Developmental rates were obtained for the average Malaysian temperature and these were used in constructing the transition matrix for the matrix model. The model, which was based only on temperature, projected that the population of Aedes aegypti will blow up with time, which is not realistic. For further work, other factors need to be taken into account to obtain a more realistic result.

Perturbation analysis of transient population dynamics using matrix projection models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stott, Iain

2016-01-01

Non-stable populations exhibit short-term transient dynamics: size, growth and structure that are unlike predicted long-term asymptotic stable, stationary or equilibrium dynamics. Understanding transient dynamics of non-stable populations is important for designing effective population management...... these methods to know exactly what is being measured. Despite a wealth of existing methods, I identify some areas that would benefit from further development....

Stochastic population dynamics of a montane ground-dwelling squirrel.

Science.gov (United States)

Hostetler, Jeffrey A; Kneip, Eva; Van Vuren, Dirk H; Oli, Madan K

2012-01-01

Understanding the causes and consequences of population fluctuations is a central goal of ecology. We used demographic data from a long-term (1990-2008) study and matrix population models to investigate factors and processes influencing the dynamics and persistence of a golden-mantled ground squirrel (Callospermophilus lateralis) population, inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat in Colorado, USA. The overall deterministic population growth rate λ was 0.94±SE 0.05 but it varied widely over time, ranging from 0.45±0.09 in 2006 to 1.50±0.12 in 2003, and was below replacement (λbounce back from low densities and prevented extinction. These results suggest that dynamics and persistence of our study population are determined synergistically by density-dependence, stochastic forces, and immigration.

Current and Future Dynamics of the Red-Cockaded Woodpecker Population Inhabiting the Savannah River National Environmental Research Park: Managing For Population Growth

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Walters, J.R.; Taylor, T.B.; Daniels, S.J.; Crowder, L.B.; Pridd, J.A.

2001-01-01

Research aimed to study the dynamics of the SRS population of Red-Cockaded woodpecker and compare to those of other populations to identify factors limiting population growth; recruitment clusters were evaluated to determine what properties of individual cavity trees, surrounding habitat and the surrounding landscape might limit occupancy through natural dispersal. A spatial simulation model was used to project expected dispersal rates and population growth under current conditions and compare those estimates to observed dispersal and population growth. Red cockaded woodpecker populations at SRS are stable considering size. Research reveals that closer placement of recruitment clusters to active territories would produce higher growth rates while decreasing management intensity

Current and Future Dynamics of the Red-Cockaded Woodpecker Population Inhabiting the Savannah River National Environmental Research Park: Managing For Population Growth

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Walters, J.R.; Taylor, T.B.; Daniels, S.J.; Crowder, L.B.; Pridd, J.A.

2001-01-01

Research aimed to study the dynamics of the SRS population of Red-Cockaded woodpecker and compare to those of other populations to identify factors limiting population growth; recruitment clusters were evaluated to determine what properties of individual cavity trees, surrounding habitat and the surrounding landscape might limit occupancy through natural dispersal. A spatial simulation model was used to project expected dispersal rates and population growth under current conditions and compare those estimates to observed dispersal and population growth. Red cockaded woodpecker populations at SRS are stable considering size. Research reveals that closer placement of recruitment clusters to active territories would produce higher growth rates while decreasing management intensity.

Generalization of the Rabi population inversion dynamics in the sub-one-cycle pulse limit

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doslic, N.

2006-01-01

We consider the population inversion in a two-level system generated by a sub-one-cycle pulse excitation. Specifically, we explore the effect that the time derivative of the pulse envelope has on the Rabi dynamics. Our analysis is based on a combination of analytical, perturbative, and nonperturbative treatments and is complemented by numerical simulations. We find a shortening of the Rabi inversion period and show that complete inversion is unobtainable under resonant, ultrashort pulse conditions. The impact of nonresonant and carrier-envelope phase-dependent effects on the dynamics of two-level and multilevel systems is studied numerically, and conditions for complete population inversion are derived

Chaos and order in stateless societies: Intercommunity exchange as a factor impacting the population dynamical patterns

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Medvinsky, Alexander B.; Rusakov, Alexey V.

2011-01-01

Highlights: → We model community dynamics in stateless societies. → Intercommunity barter is shown to be a factor impacting the societies dynamics. → Increase in the human population growth rate can lead to appearance of chaos. → Secular and millennial cycles are found to arise as a result of the barter. - Abstract: The once abstract notions of dynamical chaos now appear naturally in various systems [Kaplan D, Glass L. Understanding nonlinear dynamics. New York: Springer; 1995]. As a result, future trajectories of the systems may be difficult to predict. In this paper, we demonstrate the appearance of chaotic dynamics in model human communities, which consist of producers of agricultural product and producers of agricultural equipment. In the case of a solitary community, the horizon of predictability of the human population dynamics is shown to be dependent on both intrinsic instability of the dynamics and the chaotic attractor sizes. Since a separate community is usually a part of a larger commonality, we study the dynamics of social systems consisting of two interacting communities. We show that intercommunity barter can lead to stabilization of the dynamics in one of the communities, which implies persistence of stable equilibrium under changes of the maximum value of the human population growth rate. However, in the neighboring community, the equilibrium turns into a stable limit cycle as the maximum value of the human population growth rate increases. Following an increase in the maximum value of the human population growth rate leads to period-doubling bifurcations resulting in chaotic dynamics. The horizon of predictability of the chaotic oscillations is found to be limited by 5 years. We demonstrate that the intercommunity interaction can lead to the appearance of long-period harmonics in the chaotic time series. The period of the harmonics is of order 100 and 1000 years. Hence the long-period changes in the population size may be considered as an

Chaos and order in stateless societies: Intercommunity exchange as a factor impacting the population dynamical patterns

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Medvinsky, Alexander B., E-mail: medvinsky@iteb.ru [Institute of Theoretical and Experimental Biophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Pushchino 142290, Moscow Region (Russian Federation); Rusakov, Alexey V. [Institute of Theoretical and Experimental Biophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Pushchino 142290, Moscow Region (Russian Federation)

2011-06-15

Highlights: > We model community dynamics in stateless societies. > Intercommunity barter is shown to be a factor impacting the societies dynamics. > Increase in the human population growth rate can lead to appearance of chaos. > Secular and millennial cycles are found to arise as a result of the barter. - Abstract: The once abstract notions of dynamical chaos now appear naturally in various systems [Kaplan D, Glass L. Understanding nonlinear dynamics. New York: Springer; 1995]. As a result, future trajectories of the systems may be difficult to predict. In this paper, we demonstrate the appearance of chaotic dynamics in model human communities, which consist of producers of agricultural product and producers of agricultural equipment. In the case of a solitary community, the horizon of predictability of the human population dynamics is shown to be dependent on both intrinsic instability of the dynamics and the chaotic attractor sizes. Since a separate community is usually a part of a larger commonality, we study the dynamics of social systems consisting of two interacting communities. We show that intercommunity barter can lead to stabilization of the dynamics in one of the communities, which implies persistence of stable equilibrium under changes of the maximum value of the human population growth rate. However, in the neighboring community, the equilibrium turns into a stable limit cycle as the maximum value of the human population growth rate increases. Following an increase in the maximum value of the human population growth rate leads to period-doubling bifurcations resulting in chaotic dynamics. The horizon of predictability of the chaotic oscillations is found to be limited by 5 years. We demonstrate that the intercommunity interaction can lead to the appearance of long-period harmonics in the chaotic time series. The period of the harmonics is of order 100 and 1000 years. Hence the long-period changes in the population size may be considered as an

Dynamics of buckbrush populations under simulated forest restoration alternatives

Science.gov (United States)

David W. Huffman; Margaret M. Moore

2008-01-01

Plant population models are valuable tools for assessing ecological tradeoffs between forest management approaches. In addition, these models can provide insight on plant life history patterns and processes important for persistence and recovery of populations in changing environments. In this study, we evaluated a set of ecological restoration alternatives for their...

Considering transient population dynamics in the conservation of slow life-history species: An application to the sandhill crane

Science.gov (United States)

Gerber, Brian D.; Kendall, William L.

2016-01-01

The importance of transient dynamics of structured populations is increasingly recognized in ecology, yet these implications are not largely considered in conservation practices. We investigate transient and long-term population dynamics to demonstrate the process and utility of incorporating transient dynamics into conservation research and to better understand the population management of slow life-history species; these species can be theoretically highly sensitive to short- and long-term transient effects. We are specifically interested in the effects of anthropogenic removal of individuals from populations, such as caused by harvest, poaching, translocation, or incidental take. We use the sandhill crane (Grus canadensis) as an exemplar species; it is long-lived, has low reproduction, late maturity, and multiple populations are subject to sport harvest. We found sandhill cranes to have extremely high potential, but low likelihood for transient dynamics, even when the population is being harvested. The typically low population growth rate of slow life-history species appears to buffer against many perturbations causing large transient effects. Transient dynamics will dominate population trajectories of these species when stage structures are highly biased towards the younger and non-reproducing individuals, a situation that may be rare in established populations of long-lived animals. However, short-term transient population growth can be highly sensitive to vital rates that are relatively insensitive under equilibrium, suggesting that stage structure should be known if perturbation analysis is used to identify effective conservation strategies. For populations of slow life-history species that are not prone to large perturbations to their most productive individuals, population growth may be approximated by equilibrium dynamics.

Seasonal dynamics of snail populations in coastal Kenya: Model calibration and snail control

Science.gov (United States)

Gurarie, D.; King, C. H.; Yoon, N.; Wang, X.; Alsallaq, R.

2017-10-01

A proper snail population model is important for accurately predicting Schistosoma transmission. Field data shows that the overall snail population and that of shedding snails have a strong pattern of seasonal variation. Because human hosts are infected by the cercariae released from shedding snails, the abundance of the snail population sets ultimate limits on human infection. For developing a predictive dynamic model of schistosome infection and control strategies we need realistic snail population dynamics. Here we propose two such models based on underlying environmental factors and snail population biology. The models consist of two-stage (young-adult) populations with resource-dependent reproduction, survival, maturation. The key input in the system is seasonal rainfall which creates snail habitats and resources (small vegetation). The models were tested, calibrated and validated using dataset collected in Msambweni (coastal Kenya). Seasonal rainfall in Msambweni is highly variable with intermittent wet - dry seasons. Typical snail patterns follow precipitation peaks with 2-4-month time-lag. Our models are able to reproduce such seasonal variability over extended period of time (3-year study). We applied them to explore the optimal seasonal timing for implementing snail control.

Nonlinear Relaxation in Population Dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Cirone, Markus A.; de Pasquale, Ferdinando; Spagnolo, Bernardo

We analyze the nonlinear relaxation of a complex ecosystem composed of many interacting species. The ecological system is described by generalized Lotka-Volterra equations with a multiplicative noise. The transient dynamics is studied in the framework of the mean field theory and with random interaction between the species. We focus on the statistical properties of the asymptotic behaviour of the time integral of the ith population and on the distribution of the population and of the local field.

Cellular-automata model of the dwarf shrubs populations and communities dynamics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. S. Komarov

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The probabilistic cellular-automata model of development and long-time dynamics of dwarf shrub populations and communities is developed. It is based on the concept of discrete description of the plant ontogenesis and joint model approaches in terms of probabilistic cellular automata and L-systems by Lindenmayer. Short representation of the basic model allows evaluation of the approach and software implementation. The main variables of the model are a number of partial bushes in clones or area projective cover. The model allows us to investigate the conditions of self-maintenance and sustainability population under different environmental conditions (inaccessibility of the territory for settlement, mosaic moisture conditions of soil and wealth. The model provides a forecast of the total biomass dynamics shrubs and their fractions (stems, leaves, roots, fine roots, fruits on the basis of the data obtained in the discrete description of ontogenesis and further information on the productivity of the plant fractions. The inclusion of the joint dynamics of biomass of shrubs and soil in EFIMOD models cycle of carbon and nitrogen to evaluate the role of shrubs in these circulations, especially at high impact, such as forest fires and clear cutting, allow forecasting of the dynamics of populations and ecosystem functions of shrubs (regulation of biogeochemical cycles maintaining biodiversity, participation in the creation of non-wood products with changing climatic conditions and strong damaging effects (logging, fires; and application of the models developed to investigate the stability and productivity of shrubs and their participation in the cycle of carbon and nitrogen in different climatic and edaphic conditions.

[Population dynamics and development in the Caribbean].

Science.gov (United States)

Boland, B

1995-12-01

The impact is examined of socioeconomic factors on Caribbean population dynamics. This work begins by describing the socioeconomic context of the late 1980s and early 1990s, under the influence of the economic changes and crises of the 1980s. The small size, openness, dependency, and lack of diversification of the Caribbean economies have made them vulnerable to external pressures. The Bahamas and Belize had economic growth rates exceeding 5% annually during 1981-90, but most of the countries had low or negative growth. Unemployment, poverty, the structural adjustment measures adopted in the mid-1980s, and declines in social spending exacerbated general economic conditions. In broad terms, the population situation of the Caribbean is marked by diversity of sizes and growth rates. A few countries oriented toward services and tourism had demographic growth rates exceeding 3%, while at least 7 had almost no growth or negative growth. Population growth rates reflected different combinations of natural increase and migration. Crude death rates ranged from around 5/1000 to 11/1000, except in Haiti, and all countries of the region except Haiti had life expectancies of 70 years or higher. Despite fertility decline, the average crude birth rate was still relatively high at 26/1000, and the rate of natural increase was 1.8% annually for the region. Nearly half of the regional population was under 15 or over 65 years old. The body of this work provides greater detail on mortality patterns, variations by sex, infant mortality, causes of death, and implications for policy. The discussion of fertility includes general patterns and trends, age specific fertility rates, contraceptive prevalence, levels of adolescent fertility and age factors in adolescent sexual behavior, characteristics of adolescent unions, contraceptive usage, health and social consequences of adolescent childbearing, and the search for solutions. The final section describes the magnitude and causes of

Dynamics of genetic processes in chronically irradiated populations of small mammals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ryabokon', N.I.; Goncharova, R.I.; Smolich, I.I.; Kapitanova, N.P.; Nikitchenko, N.V.

2000-01-01

The distinctive features of dynamics of mutagenesis in mammalian populations under chronic low-intensive irradiation were first revealed. The main of them is gradual increase in mutability in somatic cells and embryonal lethality during series of irradiated generations of animals (bank vole - Clethrionomys glareolus). The data obtained strongly suggest that there are oppositely directed processes in natural populations after irradiation of more than 20 generations of animals: on the one hand, accumulation of mutations (genetic load of populations) and pre-mutation events which increase genome instability of germ and somatic cells in consecutive generations of animals, and on the other, formation of genetic radio adaptation through better functioning protection systems. In this period of micro evolution in chronically irradiated populations, the frequencies of genetic damages could be higher if the radiation adaptation doesn't form. (authors)

Population and evolutionary dynamics in spatially structured seasonally varying environments.

Science.gov (United States)

Reid, Jane M; Travis, Justin M J; Daunt, Francis; Burthe, Sarah J; Wanless, Sarah; Dytham, Calvin

2018-03-25

Increasingly imperative objectives in ecology are to understand and forecast population dynamic and evolutionary responses to seasonal environmental variation and change. Such population and evolutionary dynamics result from immediate and lagged responses of all key life-history traits, and resulting demographic rates that affect population growth rate, to seasonal environmental conditions and population density. However, existing population dynamic and eco-evolutionary theory and models have not yet fully encompassed within-individual and among-individual variation, covariation, structure and heterogeneity, and ongoing evolution, in a critical life-history trait that allows individuals to respond to seasonal environmental conditions: seasonal migration. Meanwhile, empirical studies aided by new animal-tracking technologies are increasingly demonstrating substantial within-population variation in the occurrence and form of migration versus year-round residence, generating diverse forms of 'partial migration' spanning diverse species, habitats and spatial scales. Such partially migratory systems form a continuum between the extreme scenarios of full migration and full year-round residence, and are commonplace in nature. Here, we first review basic scenarios of partial migration and associated models designed to identify conditions that facilitate the maintenance of migratory polymorphism. We highlight that such models have been fundamental to the development of partial migration theory, but are spatially and demographically simplistic compared to the rich bodies of population dynamic theory and models that consider spatially structured populations with dispersal but no migration, or consider populations experiencing strong seasonality and full obligate migration. Second, to provide an overarching conceptual framework for spatio-temporal population dynamics, we define a 'partially migratory meta-population' system as a spatially structured set of locations that can

Seasonal Population Dynamics of Homalodisca vitripennis (Germar) (Hemiptera: Cicadellidae) in Sweet Orange Trees Maintained under Continuous Deficit Irrigation

Science.gov (United States)

A two-year study was conducted in a citrus orchard [Citrus sinensis (L.) Osbeck cv. ‘Valencia’] to determine influence of plant water stress on population dynamics of glassy-winged sharpshooter (GWSS), Homalodisca vitripennis (Germar). Experimental treatments included irrigation at 100% of the crop...

Effects of an invasive plant on population dynamics in toads.

Science.gov (United States)

Greenberg, Daniel A; Green, David M

2013-10-01

When populations decline in response to unfavorable environmental change, the dynamics of their population growth shift. In populations that normally exhibit high levels of variation in recruitment and abundance, as do many amphibians, declines may be difficult to identify from natural fluctuations in abundance. However, the onset of declines may be evident from changes in population growth rate in sufficiently long time series of population data. With data from 23 years of study of a population of Fowler's toad (Anaxyrus [ = Bufo] fowleri) at Long Point, Ontario (1989-2011), we sought to identify such a shift in dynamics. We tested for trends in abundance to detect a change point in population dynamics and then tested among competing population models to identify associated intrinsic and extrinsic factors. The most informative models of population growth included terms for toad abundance and the extent of an invasive marsh plant, the common reed (Phragmites australis), throughout the toads' marshland breeding areas. Our results showed density-dependent growth in the toad population from 1989 through 2002. After 2002, however, we found progressive population decline in the toads associated with the spread of common reeds and consequent loss of toad breeding habitat. This resulted in reduced recruitment and population growth despite the lack of significant loss of adult habitat. Our results underscore the value of using long-term time series to identify shifts in population dynamics coincident with the advent of population decline. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Dynamical community structure of populations evolving on genotype networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Capitán, José A.; Aguirre, Jacobo; Manrubia, Susanna

2015-01-01

Neutral evolutionary dynamics of replicators occurs on large and heterogeneous networks of genotypes. These networks, formed by all genotypes that yield the same phenotype, have a complex architecture that conditions the molecular composition of populations and their movements on genome spaces. Here we consider as an example the case of populations evolving on RNA secondary structure neutral networks and study the community structure of the network revealed through dynamical properties of the population at equilibrium and during adaptive transients. We unveil a rich hierarchical community structure that, eventually, can be traced back to the non-trivial relationship between RNA secondary structure and sequence composition. We demonstrate that usual measures of modularity that only take into account the static, topological structure of networks, cannot identify the community structure disclosed by population dynamics

Dynamics of a physiologically structured population in a time-varying environment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Heilmann, Irene Louise Torpe; Starke, Jens; Andersen, Ken Haste

2016-01-01

Physiologically structured population models have become a valuable tool to model the dynamics of populations. In a stationary environment such models can exhibit equilibrium solutions as well as periodic solutions. However, for many organisms the environment is not stationary, but varies more...... or less regularly. In order to understand the interaction between an external environmental forcing and the internal dynamics in a population, we examine the response of a physiologically structured population model to a periodic variation in the food resource. We explore the addition of forcing in two...... cases: (A) where the population dynamics is in equilibrium in a stationary environment, and (B) where the population dynamics exhibits a periodic solution in a stationary environment. When forcing is applied in case A, the solutions are mainly periodic. In case B the forcing signal interacts...

Human population and atmospheric carbon dioxide growth dynamics: Diagnostics for the future

Science.gov (United States)

Hüsler, A. D.; Sornette, D.

2014-10-01

We analyze the growth rates of human population and of atmospheric carbon dioxide by comparing the relative merits of two benchmark models, the exponential law and the finite-time-singular (FTS) power law. The later results from positive feedbacks, either direct or mediated by other dynamical variables, as shown in our presentation of a simple endogenous macroeconomic dynamical growth model describing the growth dynamics of coupled processes involving human population (labor in economic terms), capital and technology (proxies by CO2 emissions). Human population in the context of our energy intensive economies constitutes arguably the most important underlying driving variable of the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Using some of the best databases available, we perform empirical analyses confirming that the human population on Earth has been growing super-exponentially until the mid-1960s, followed by a decelerated sub-exponential growth, with a tendency to plateau at just an exponential growth in the last decade with an average growth rate of 1.0% per year. In contrast, we find that the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has continued to accelerate super-exponentially until 1990, with a transition to a progressive deceleration since then, with an average growth rate of approximately 2% per year in the last decade. To go back to CO2 atmosphere contents equal to or smaller than the level of 1990 as has been the broadly advertised goals of international treaties since 1990 requires herculean changes: from a dynamical point of view, the approximately exponential growth must not only turn to negative acceleration but also negative velocity to reverse the trend.

Population dynamics of minimally cognitive individuals. Part 2: Dynamics of time-dependent knowledge

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schmieder, R.W.

1995-07-01

The dynamical principle for a population of interacting individuals with mutual pairwise knowledge, presented by the author in a previous paper for the case of constant knowledge, is extended to include the possibility that the knowledge is time-dependent. Several mechanisms are presented by which the mutual knowledge, represented by a matrix K, can be altered, leading to dynamical equations for K(t). The author presents various examples of the transient and long time asymptotic behavior of K(t) for populations of relatively isolated individuals interacting infrequently in local binary collisions. Among the effects observed in the numerical experiments are knowledge diffusion, learning transients, and fluctuating equilibria. This approach will be most appropriate to small populations of complex individuals such as simple animals, robots, computer networks, agent-mediated traffic, simple ecosystems, and games. Evidence of metastable states and intermittent switching leads them to envision a spectroscopy associated with such transitions that is independent of the specific physical individuals and the population. Such spectra may serve as good lumped descriptors of the collective emergent behavior of large classes of populations in which mutual knowledge is an important part of the dynamics.

An individual-based model of Zebrafish population dynamics accounting for energy dynamics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Beaudouin, Remy; Goussen, Benoit; Piccini, Benjamin

2015-01-01

Developing population dynamics models for zebrafish is crucial in order to extrapolate from toxicity data measured at the organism level to biological levels relevant to support and enhance ecological risk assessment. To achieve this, a dynamic energy budget for individual zebrafish (DEB model...

Population dynamics of active and total ciliate populations in arable soil amended with wheat

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ekelund, F.; Frederiksen, Helle B.; Ronn, R.

2002-01-01

of the population may be encysted. The factors governing the dynamics of active and encysted cells in the soil are not well understood. Our objective was to determine the dynamics of active and encysted populations of ciliates during the decomposition of freshly added organic material. We monitored, in soil...... microcosms, the active and total populations of ciliates, their potential prey (bacteria and small protozoa), their potential competitors (amoebae, flagellates, and nematodes), and their potential predators (nematodes). We sampled with short time intervals (2 to 6 days) and generated a data set, suitable...

Estimating Traveler Populations at Airport and Cruise Terminals for Population Distribution and Dynamics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jochem, Warren C [ORNL; Sims, Kelly M [ORNL; Bright, Eddie A [ORNL; Urban, Marie L [ORNL; Rose, Amy N [ORNL; Coleman, Phil R [ORNL; Bhaduri, Budhendra L [ORNL

2013-01-01

In recent years, uses of high-resolution population distribution databases are increasing steadily for environmental, socioeconomic, public health, and disaster-related research and operations. With the development of daytime population distribution, temporal resolution of such databases has been improved. However, the lack of incorporation of transitional population, namely business and leisure travelers, leaves a significant population unaccounted for within the critical infrastructure networks, such as at transportation hubs. This paper presents two general methodologies for estimating passenger populations in airport and cruise port terminals at a high temporal resolution which can be incorporated into existing population distribution models. The methodologies are geographically scalable and are based on, and demonstrate how, two different transportation hubs with disparate temporal population dynamics can be modeled utilizing publicly available databases including novel data sources of flight activity from the Internet which are updated in near-real time. The airport population estimation model shows great potential for rapid implementation for a large collection of airports on a national scale, and the results suggest reasonable accuracy in the estimated passenger traffic. By incorporating population dynamics at high temporal resolutions into population distribution models, we hope to improve the estimates of populations exposed to or at risk to disasters, thereby improving emergency planning and response, and leading to more informed policy decisions.

DYNAMICS OF Cercospora zeina POPULATIONS IN MAIZE-BASED ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

ACSS

DYNAMICS OFCercospora zeina POPULATIONS IN MAIZE-BASED AGRO- ..... Population differentiation of Cercospora zeina in three districts of Uganda based on analysis of molecular variance ..... interactions: The example of the Erysiphe.

Spiking, Bursting, and Population Dynamics in a Network of Growth Transform Neurons.

Science.gov (United States)

Gangopadhyay, Ahana; Chakrabartty, Shantanu

2017-04-27

This paper investigates the dynamical properties of a network of neurons, each of which implements an asynchronous mapping based on polynomial growth transforms. In the first part of this paper, we present a geometric approach for visualizing the dynamics of the network where each of the neurons traverses a trajectory in a dual optimization space, whereas the network itself traverses a trajectory in an equivalent primal optimization space. We show that as the network learns to solve basic classification tasks, different choices of primal-dual mapping produce unique but interpretable neural dynamics like noise shaping, spiking, and bursting. While the proposed framework is general enough, in this paper, we demonstrate its use for designing support vector machines (SVMs) that exhibit noise-shaping properties similar to those of ΣΔ modulators, and for designing SVMs that learn to encode information using spikes and bursts. It is demonstrated that the emergent switching, spiking, and burst dynamics produced by each neuron encodes its respective margin of separation from a classification hyperplane whose parameters are encoded by the network population dynamics. We believe that the proposed growth transform neuron model and the underlying geometric framework could serve as an important tool to connect well-established machine learning algorithms like SVMs to neuromorphic principles like spiking, bursting, population encoding, and noise shaping.

POPULATION DYNAMICS OF PSEUDO-NITZSCHIA SPECIES ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

nb

current study aimed at assessing the population dynamics of Pseudo-nitzschia ... and to the developing aquaculture industry ... B. Hotel. Pangani Island. Bongoyo Island. Mbudya Island. Msasani Bay ... Salinity values did not show clear trends.

Effect of the alien invasive bivalve Corbicula fluminea on the nutrient dynamics under climate change scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Coelho, J. P.; Lillebø, A. I.; Crespo, D.; Leston, S.; Dolbeth, M.

2018-05-01

The main aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of the alien invasive bivalve Corbicula fluminea (Müller, 1774) in the nutrient dynamics of temperate estuarine systems (oligohaline areas) under climate change scenarios. The scenarios simulated shifts in climatic conditions, following salinity (0 or 5) and temperature (24 or 30 °C) changes, usual during drought and heat wave events. The effect of the individual size/age (different size classes with fixed biomass) and density (various densities of <1 cm clams) on the bioturbation-associated nutrient dynamics were also evaluated under an 18-day laboratory experimental setup. Results highlight the significant effect of C. fluminea on the ecosystem nutrient dynamics, enhancing the efflux of both phosphate and dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) from the sediments to the water column. Both drought and heat wave events will have an impact on the DIN dynamics within C. fluminea colonized systems, favouring a higher NH4-N efflux. The population structure of C. fluminea will have a decisive role on the impact of the species, with stronger nutrient effluxes associated with a predominantly juvenile population structure.

Critical dynamics in population vaccinating behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Pananos, A Demetri; Bury, Thomas M; Wang, Clara; Schonfeld, Justin; Mohanty, Sharada P; Nyhan, Brendan; Salathé, Marcel; Bauch, Chris T

2017-12-26

Vaccine refusal can lead to renewed outbreaks of previously eliminated diseases and even delay global eradication. Vaccinating decisions exemplify a complex, coupled system where vaccinating behavior and disease dynamics influence one another. Such systems often exhibit critical phenomena-special dynamics close to a tipping point leading to a new dynamical regime. For instance, critical slowing down (declining rate of recovery from small perturbations) may emerge as a tipping point is approached. Here, we collected and geocoded tweets about measles-mumps-rubella vaccine and classified their sentiment using machine-learning algorithms. We also extracted data on measles-related Google searches. We find critical slowing down in the data at the level of California and the United States in the years before and after the 2014-2015 Disneyland, California measles outbreak. Critical slowing down starts growing appreciably several years before the Disneyland outbreak as vaccine uptake declines and the population approaches the tipping point. However, due to the adaptive nature of coupled behavior-disease systems, the population responds to the outbreak by moving away from the tipping point, causing "critical speeding up" whereby resilience to perturbations increases. A mathematical model of measles transmission and vaccine sentiment predicts the same qualitative patterns in the neighborhood of a tipping point to greatly reduced vaccine uptake and large epidemics. These results support the hypothesis that population vaccinating behavior near the disease elimination threshold is a critical phenomenon. Developing new analytical tools to detect these patterns in digital social data might help us identify populations at heightened risk of widespread vaccine refusal. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Integrating count and detection–nondetection data to model population dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Zipkin, Elise F.; Rossman, Sam; Yackulic, Charles B.; Wiens, David; Thorson, James T.; Davis, Raymond J.; Grant, Evan H. Campbell

2017-01-01

There is increasing need for methods that integrate multiple data types into a single analytical framework as the spatial and temporal scale of ecological research expands. Current work on this topic primarily focuses on combining capture–recapture data from marked individuals with other data types into integrated population models. Yet, studies of species distributions and trends often rely on data from unmarked individuals across broad scales where local abundance and environmental variables may vary. We present a modeling framework for integrating detection–nondetection and count data into a single analysis to estimate population dynamics, abundance, and individual detection probabilities during sampling. Our dynamic population model assumes that site-specific abundance can change over time according to survival of individuals and gains through reproduction and immigration. The observation process for each data type is modeled by assuming that every individual present at a site has an equal probability of being detected during sampling processes. We examine our modeling approach through a series of simulations illustrating the relative value of count vs. detection–nondetection data under a variety of parameter values and survey configurations. We also provide an empirical example of the model by combining long-term detection–nondetection data (1995–2014) with newly collected count data (2015–2016) from a growing population of Barred Owl (Strix varia) in the Pacific Northwest to examine the factors influencing population abundance over time. Our model provides a foundation for incorporating unmarked data within a single framework, even in cases where sampling processes yield different detection probabilities. This approach will be useful for survey design and to researchers interested in incorporating historical or citizen science data into analyses focused on understanding how demographic rates drive population abundance.

Dynamic interactions between hydrogeological and exposure parameters in daily dose prediction under uncertainty and temporal variability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kumar, Vikas, E-mail: vikas.kumar@urv.cat [Department of Chemical Engineering, Rovira i Virgili University, Tarragona 43007 (Spain); Barros, Felipe P.J. de [Sonny Astani Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Southern California, Los Angeles 90089, CA (United States); Schuhmacher, Marta [Department of Chemical Engineering, Rovira i Virgili University, Tarragona 43007 (Spain); Fernàndez-Garcia, Daniel; Sanchez-Vila, Xavier [Hydrogeology Group, Department of Geotechnical Engineering and Geosciences, University Politècnica de Catalunya-BarcelonaTech, Barcelona 08034 (Spain)

2013-12-15

Highlights: • Dynamic parametric interaction in daily dose prediction under uncertainty. • Importance of temporal dynamics associated with the dose. • Different dose experienced by different population cohorts as a function of time. • Relevance of uncertainty reduction in the input parameters shows temporal dynamism. -- Abstract: We study the time dependent interaction between hydrogeological and exposure parameters in daily dose predictions due to exposure of humans to groundwater contamination. Dose predictions are treated stochastically to account for an incomplete hydrogeological and geochemical field characterization, and an incomplete knowledge of the physiological response. We used a nested Monte Carlo framework to account for uncertainty and variability arising from both hydrogeological and exposure variables. Our interest is in the temporal dynamics of the total dose and their effects on parametric uncertainty reduction. We illustrate the approach to a HCH (lindane) pollution problem at the Ebro River, Spain. The temporal distribution of lindane in the river water can have a strong impact in the evaluation of risk. The total dose displays a non-linear effect on different population cohorts, indicating the need to account for population variability. We then expand the concept of Comparative Information Yield Curves developed earlier (see de Barros et al. [29]) to evaluate parametric uncertainty reduction under temporally variable exposure dose. Results show that the importance of parametric uncertainty reduction varies according to the temporal dynamics of the lindane plume. The approach could be used for any chemical to aid decision makers to better allocate resources towards reducing uncertainty.

The impact of rapid evolution on population dynamics in the wild: experimental test of eco-evolutionary dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

Turcotte, Martin M; Reznick, David N; Hare, J Daniel

2011-11-01

Rapid evolution challenges the assumption that evolution is too slow to impact short-term ecological dynamics. This insight motivates the study of 'Eco-Evolutionary Dynamics' or how evolution and ecological processes reciprocally interact on short time scales. We tested how rapid evolution impacts concurrent population dynamics using an aphid (Myzus persicae) and an undomesticated host (Hirschfeldia incana) in replicated wild populations. We manipulated evolvability by creating non-evolving (single clone) and potentially evolving (two-clone) aphid populations that contained genetic variation in intrinsic growth rate. We observed significant evolution in two-clone populations whether or not they were exposed to predators and competitors. Evolving populations grew up to 42% faster and attained up to 67% higher density, compared with non-evolving control populations but only in treatments exposed to competitors and predators. Increased density also correlates with relative fitness of competing clones suggesting a full eco-evolutionary dynamic cycle defined as reciprocal interactions between evolution and density. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Experiments with mathematical models to simulate hepatitis A population dynamics under different levels of endemicity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mariana Alves de Guimaraens

Full Text Available Heterogeneous access to sanitation services is a characteristic of communities in Brazil. This heterogeneity leads to different patterns of hepatitis A endemicity: areas with low infection rates have higher probability of outbreaks, and areas with higher infection rates have high prevalence and low risk of outbreaks. Here we develop a mathematical model to study the effect of variable exposure to infection on the epidemiological dynamics of hepatitis A. Differential equations were used to simulate population dynamics and were numerically solved using the software StellaTM. The model uses parameters from serological surveys in the Greater Metropolitan Rio de Janeiro, in areas with different sanitation conditions. Computer simulation experiments show that the range of infection rates observed in these communities are characteristic of high and low levels of hepatitis A endemicity. We also found that the functional relationship between sanitation and exposure to infection is an important component of the model. The analysis of the public health impact of partial sanitation requires a better understanding of this relationship.

The dynamics of diverse segmental amplifications in populations of Saccharomyces cerevisiae adapting to strong selection.

Science.gov (United States)

Payen, Celia; Di Rienzi, Sara C; Ong, Giang T; Pogachar, Jamie L; Sanchez, Joseph C; Sunshine, Anna B; Raghuraman, M K; Brewer, Bonita J; Dunham, Maitreya J

2014-03-20

Population adaptation to strong selection can occur through the sequential or parallel accumulation of competing beneficial mutations. The dynamics, diversity, and rate of fixation of beneficial mutations within and between populations are still poorly understood. To study how the mutational landscape varies across populations during adaptation, we performed experimental evolution on seven parallel populations of Saccharomyces cerevisiae continuously cultured in limiting sulfate medium. By combining quantitative polymerase chain reaction, array comparative genomic hybridization, restriction digestion and contour-clamped homogeneous electric field gel electrophoresis, and whole-genome sequencing, we followed the trajectory of evolution to determine the identity and fate of beneficial mutations. During a period of 200 generations, the yeast populations displayed parallel evolutionary dynamics that were driven by the coexistence of independent beneficial mutations. Selective amplifications rapidly evolved under this selection pressure, in particular common inverted amplifications containing the sulfate transporter gene SUL1. Compared with single clones, detailed analysis of the populations uncovers a greater complexity whereby multiple subpopulations arise and compete despite a strong selection. The most common evolutionary adaptation to strong selection in these populations grown in sulfate limitation is determined by clonal interference, with adaptive variants both persisting and replacing one another.

A consumer-resource approach to the density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism.

Science.gov (United States)

Holland, J Nathaniel; DeAngelis, Donald L

2010-05-01

Like predation and competition, mutualism is now recognized as a consumer-resource (C-R) interaction, including, in particular, bi-directional (e.g., coral, plant-mycorrhizae) and uni-directional (e.g., ant-plant defense, plant-pollinator) C-R mutualisms. Here, we develop general theory for the density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism based on the C-R mechanism of interspecific interaction. To test the influence of C-R interactions on the dynamics and stability of bi- and uni-directional C-R mutualisms, we developed simple models that link consumer functional response of one mutualistic species with the resources supplied by another. Phase-plane analyses show that the ecological dynamics of C-R mutualisms are stable in general. Most transient behavior leads to an equilibrium of mutualistic coexistence, at which both species densities are greater than in the absence of interactions. However, due to the basic nature of C-R interactions, certain density-dependent conditions can lead to C-R dynamics characteristic of predator-prey interactions, in which one species overexploits and causes the other to go extinct. Consistent with empirical phenomena, these results suggest that the C-R interaction can provide a broad mechanism for understanding density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism. By unifying predation, competition, and mutualism under the common ecological framework of consumer-resource theory, we may also gain a better understanding of the universal features of interspecific interactions in general.

A consumer-resource approach to the density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism

Science.gov (United States)

Holland, J. Nathaniel; DeAngelis, Donald L.

2010-01-01

Like predation and competition, mutualism is now recognized as a consumer resource (C-R) interaction, including, in particular, bi-directional (e.g., coral, plant- mycorrhizae) and uni-directional (e.g., ant-plant defense, plant-pollinator) C-R mutualisms. Here, we develop general theory for the density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism based on the C-R mechanism of interspecific interaction. To test the influence of C-R interactions on the dynamics and stability of bi- and uni-directional C-R mutualisms, we developed simple models that link consumer functional response of one mutualistic species with the resources supplied by another. Phase-plane analyses show that the ecological dynamics of C-R mutualisms are stable in general. Most transient behavior leads to an equilibrium of mutualistic coexistence, at which both species densities are greater than in the absence of interactions. However, due to the basic nature of C-R interactions, certain density-dependent conditions can lead to C-R dynamics characteristic of predator-prey interactions, in which one species overexploits and causes the other to go extinct. Consistent with empirical phenomena, these results suggest that the C-R interaction can provide a broad mechanism for understanding density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism. By unifying predation, competition, and mutualism under the common ecological framework of consumer-resource theory, we may also gain a better understanding of the universal features of interspecific interactions in general.

Modeling the population dynamics of Pacific yew.

Science.gov (United States)

Richard T. Busing; Thomas A. Spies

1995-01-01

A study of Pacific yew (Taxus brevifolia Nutt.) population dynamics in the mountains of western Oregon and Washington was based on a combination of long-term population data and computer modeling. Rates of growth and mortality were low in mature and old-growth forest stands. Diameter growth at breast height ranged from 0 to 3 centimeters per decade...

Stochastic population dynamic models as probability networks

Science.gov (United States)

M.E. and D.C. Lee. Borsuk

2009-01-01

The dynamics of a population and its response to environmental change depend on the balance of birth, death and age-at-maturity, and there have been many attempts to mathematically model populations based on these characteristics. Historically, most of these models were deterministic, meaning that the results were strictly determined by the equations of the model and...

The population and decay evolution of a qubit under the time-convolutionless master equation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huang Jiang; Fang Mao-Fa; Liu Xiang

2012-01-01

We consider the population and decay of a qubit under the electromagnetic environment. Employing the time-convolutionless master equation, we investigate the Markovian and non-Markovian behaviour of the corresponding perturbation expansion. The Jaynes-Cummings model on resonance is investigated. Some figures clearly show the different evolution behaviours. The reasons are interpreted in the paper. (electromagnetism, optics, acoustics, heat transfer, classical mechanics, and fluid dynamics)

Estimating spatio-temporal dynamics of size-structured populations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kristensen, Kasper; Thygesen, Uffe Høgsbro; Andersen, Ken Haste

2014-01-01

with simple stock dynamics, to estimate simultaneously how size distributions and spatial distributions develop in time. We demonstrate the method for a cod population sampled by trawl surveys. Particular attention is paid to correlation between size classes within each trawl haul due to clustering...... of individuals with similar size. The model estimates growth, mortality and reproduction, after which any aspect of size-structure, spatio-temporal population dynamics, as well as the sampling process can be probed. This is illustrated by two applications: 1) tracking the spatial movements of a single cohort...

Computer simulation of population dynamics inside the urban environment

Science.gov (United States)

Andreev, A. S.; Inovenkov, I. N.; Echkina, E. Yu.; Nefedov, V. V.; Ponomarenko, L. S.; Tikhomirov, V. V.

2017-12-01

In this paper using a mathematical model of the so-called “space-dynamic” approach we investigate the problem of development and temporal dynamics of different urban population groups. For simplicity we consider an interaction of only two population groups inside a single urban area with axial symmetry. This problem can be described qualitatively by a system of two non-stationary nonlinear differential equations of the diffusion type with boundary conditions of the third type. The results of numerical simulations show that with a suitable choice of the diffusion coefficients and interaction functions between different population groups we can receive different scenarios of population dynamics: from complete displacement of one population group by another (originally more “aggressive”) to the “peaceful” situation of co-existence of them together.

Discrete two-sex models of population dynamics: On modelling the mating function

Science.gov (United States)

Bessa-Gomes, Carmen; Legendre, Stéphane; Clobert, Jean

2010-09-01

Although sexual reproduction has long been a central subject of theoretical ecology, until recently its consequences for population dynamics were largely overlooked. This is now changing, and many studies have addressed this issue, showing that when the mating system is taken into account, the population dynamics depends on the relative abundance of males and females, and is non-linear. Moreover, sexual reproduction increases the extinction risk, namely due to the Allee effect. Nevertheless, different studies have identified diverse potential consequences, depending on the choice of mating function. In this study, we investigate the consequences of three alternative mating functions that are frequently used in discrete population models: the minimum; the harmonic mean; and the modified harmonic mean. We consider their consequences at three levels: on the probability that females will breed; on the presence and intensity of the Allee effect; and on the extinction risk. When we consider the harmonic mean, the number of times the individuals of the least abundant sex mate exceeds their mating potential, which implies that with variable sex-ratios the potential reproductive rate is no longer under the modeller's control. Consequently, the female breeding probability exceeds 1 whenever the sex-ratio is male-biased, which constitutes an obvious problem. The use of the harmonic mean is thus only justified if we think that this parameter should be re-defined in order to represent the females' breeding rate and the fact that females may reproduce more than once per breeding season. This phenomenon buffers the Allee effect, and reduces the extinction risk. However, when we consider birth-pulse populations, such a phenomenon is implausible because the number of times females can reproduce per birth season is limited. In general, the minimum or modified harmonic mean mating functions seem to be more suitable for assessing the impact of mating systems on population dynamics.

Data Driven Approach for High Resolution Population Distribution and Dynamics Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bhaduri, Budhendra L [ORNL; Bright, Eddie A [ORNL; Rose, Amy N [ORNL; Liu, Cheng [ORNL; Urban, Marie L [ORNL; Stewart, Robert N [ORNL

2014-01-01

High resolution population distribution data are vital for successfully addressing critical issues ranging from energy and socio-environmental research to public health to human security. Commonly available population data from Census is constrained both in space and time and does not capture population dynamics as functions of space and time. This imposes a significant limitation on the fidelity of event-based simulation models with sensitive space-time resolution. This paper describes ongoing development of high-resolution population distribution and dynamics models, at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, through spatial data integration and modeling with behavioral or activity-based mobility datasets for representing temporal dynamics of population. The model is resolved at 1 km resolution globally and describes the U.S. population for nighttime and daytime at 90m. Integration of such population data provides the opportunity to develop simulations and applications in critical infrastructure management from local to global scales.

Population extinction under bursty reproduction in a time-modulated environment

Science.gov (United States)

Vilk, Ohad; Assaf, Michael

2018-06-01

In recent years nondemographic variability has been shown to greatly affect dynamics of stochastic populations. For example, nondemographic noise in the form of a bursty reproduction process with an a priori unknown burst size, or environmental variability in the form of time-varying reaction rates, have been separately found to dramatically impact the extinction risk of isolated populations. In this work we investigate the extinction risk of an isolated population under the combined influence of these two types of nondemographic variation. Using the so-called momentum-space Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin (WKB) approach and accounting for the explicit time dependence in the reaction rates, we arrive at a set of time-dependent Hamilton equations. To this end, we evaluate the population's extinction risk by finding the instanton of the time-perturbed Hamiltonian numerically, whereas analytical expressions are presented in particular limits using various perturbation techniques. We focus on two classes of time-varying environments: periodically varying rates corresponding to seasonal effects and a sudden decrease in the birth rate corresponding to a catastrophe. All our theoretical results are tested against numerical Monte Carlo simulations with time-dependent rates and also against a numerical solution of the corresponding time-dependent Hamilton equations.

Food-web dynamics under climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhang, L.; Takahashi, M.; Hartvig, Martin

2017-01-01

Climate change affects ecological communities through its impact on the physiological performance of individuals. However, the population dynamic of species well inside their thermal niche is also determined by competitors, prey and predators, in addition to being influenced by temperature changes....... We use a trait-based food-web model to examine how the interplay between the direct physiological effects from temperature and the indirect effects due to changing interactions between populations shapes the ecological consequences of climate change for populations and for entire communities. Our...... climatically well-adapted species may be brought to extinction by the changed food-web topology. Our results highlight that the impact of climate change on specific populations is largely unpredictable, and apparently well-adapted species may be severely impacted...

Polar bear population dynamics in the southern Beaufort Sea during a period of sea ice decline.

Science.gov (United States)

Bromaghin, Jeffrey F; Mcdonald, Trent L; Stirling, Ian; Derocher, Andrew E; Richardson, Evan S; Regehr, Eric V; Douglas, David C; Durner, George M; Atwood, Todd; Amstrup, Steven C

2015-04-01

In the southern Beaufort Sea of the United States and Canada, prior investigations have linked declines in summer sea ice to reduced physical condition, growth, and survival of polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Combined with projections of population decline due to continued climate warming and the ensuing loss of sea ice habitat, those findings contributed to the 2008 decision to list the species as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Here, we used mark-recapture models to investigate the population dynamics of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea from 2001 to 2010, years during which the spatial and temporal extent of summer sea ice generally declined. Low survival from 2004 through 2006 led to a 25-50% decline in abundance. We hypothesize that low survival during this period resulted from (1) unfavorable ice conditions that limited access to prey during multiple seasons; and possibly, (2) low prey abundance. For reasons that are not clear, survival of adults and cubs began to improve in 2007 and abundance was comparatively stable from 2008 to 2010, with ~900 bears in 2010 (90% CI 606-1212). However, survival of subadult bears declined throughout the entire period. Reduced spatial and temporal availability of sea ice is expected to increasingly force population dynamics of polar bears as the climate continues to warm. However, in the short term, our findings suggest that factors other than sea ice can influence survival. A refined understanding of the ecological mechanisms underlying polar bear population dynamics is necessary to improve projections of their future status and facilitate development of management strategies.

Phenotypic plasticity despite source-sink population dynamics in a long-lived perennial plant.

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, Jill T; Sparks, Jed P; Geber, Monica A

2010-11-01

• Species that exhibit adaptive plasticity alter their phenotypes in response to environmental conditions, thereby maximizing fitness in heterogeneous landscapes. However, under demographic source-sink dynamics, selection should favor traits that enhance fitness in the source habitat at the expense of fitness in the marginal habitat. Consistent with source-sink dynamics, the perennial blueberry, Vaccinium elliottii (Ericaceae), shows substantially higher fitness and population sizes in dry upland forests than in flood-prone bottomland forests, and asymmetrical gene flow occurs from upland populations into bottomland populations. Here, we examined whether this species expresses plasticity to these distinct environments despite source-sink dynamics. • We assessed phenotypic responses to a complex environmental gradient in the field and to water stress in the glasshouse. • Contrary to expectations, V. elliottii exhibited a high degree of plasticity in foliar and root traits (specific leaf area, carbon isotope ratios, foliar nitrogen content, root : shoot ratio, root porosity and root architecture). • We propose that plasticity can be maintained in source-sink systems if it is favored within the source habitat and/or a phylogenetic artifact that is not costly. Additionally, plasticity could be advantageous if habitat-based differences in fitness result from incipient niche expansion. Our results illuminate the importance of evaluating phenotypic traits and fitness components across heterogeneous landscapes. © The Authors (2010). Journal compilation © New Phytologist Trust (2010).

Population Dynamics and Cost-Benefit Analysis. An Attempt to Relate Population Dynamics via Lifetime Reproductive Success to Short-Term Decisions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tinbergen, J.M.; Balen, J.H. van; Drent, P.J.; Cavé, A.J.; Mertens, J.A.L.; Boer-Hazewinkel, J. den

1987-01-01

1. The aim of this article is to explore whether cost-benefit analysis of behaviour may help to understand the population dynamics of a species. The Great Tit is taken as an example. 2. The lifetime reproductive success in different populations of Great Tits amounts from 0.7 (Hoge Veluwe, Wytham) to

Particle algorithms for population dynamics in flows

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perlekar, Prasad; Toschi, Federico; Benzi, Roberto; Pigolotti, Simone

2011-01-01

We present and discuss particle based algorithms to numerically study the dynamics of population subjected to an advecting flow condition. We discuss few possible variants of the algorithms and compare them in a model compressible flow. A comparison against appropriate versions of the continuum stochastic Fisher equation (sFKPP) is also presented and discussed. The algorithms can be used to study populations genetics in fluid environments.

Population dynamics of rural Ethiopia.

Science.gov (United States)

Bariabagar, H

1978-01-01

2 rounds of the national sample surveys, conducted by the central statistical office of Ethiopia during 1964-1967 and 1969-1971, provide the only comprehensive demographic data for the country and are the basis for this discussion of rural Ethiopia's population dynamics. The population of Ethiopia is predominantly rural. Agglomerations of 2000 and over inhabitants constitute about 14% of the population, and this indicates that Ethiopia has a low level of urbanization. In rural Ethiopia, international migration was negligent in the 1970's and the age structure can be assumed to be the results of past trends of fertility and mortality conditions. The reported crude birthrate (38.2), crude death rate (12.3) and infant mortality rate (90) of rural Ethiopia fall short of the averages for African countries. Prospects of population growth of rural Ethiopia would be immense. At the rate of natural increase of between 2.4 and 3.0% per annum, the population would double in 24-29 years. Regarding population issues, the programs of the National Democratic Revolution of Ethiopia faces the following main challenging problems: 1) carrying out national population censuses in order to obtain basic information for socialist planning; 2) minimizing or curtailing the existing high urban growth rates; 3) reducing rapidly growing population; and 5) mobilizing Ethiopian women to participate in the social, economic and political life of the country in order to create favorable conditions for future fertility reduction.

Coupling population dynamics with earth system models: the POPEM model.

Science.gov (United States)

Navarro, Andrés; Moreno, Raúl; Jiménez-Alcázar, Alfonso; Tapiador, Francisco J

2017-09-16

Precise modeling of CO 2 emissions is important for environmental research. This paper presents a new model of human population dynamics that can be embedded into ESMs (Earth System Models) to improve climate modeling. Through a system dynamics approach, we develop a cohort-component model that successfully simulates historical population dynamics with fine spatial resolution (about 1°×1°). The population projections are used to improve the estimates of CO 2 emissions, thus transcending the bulk approach of existing models and allowing more realistic non-linear effects to feature in the simulations. The module, dubbed POPEM (from Population Parameterization for Earth Models), is compared with current emission inventories and validated against UN aggregated data. Finally, it is shown that the module can be used to advance toward fully coupling the social and natural components of the Earth system, an emerging research path for environmental science and pollution research.

Diploid male dynamics under different numbers of sexual alleles and male dispersal abilities.

Science.gov (United States)

Faria, Luiz R R; Soares, Elaine Della Giustina; Carmo, Eduardo do; Oliveira, Paulo Murilo Castro de

2016-09-01

Insects in the order Hymenoptera (bees, wasps and ants) present an haplodiploid system of sexual determination in which fertilized eggs become females and unfertilized eggs males. Under single locus complementary sex-determination (sl-CSD) system, the sex of a specimen depends on the alleles at a single locus: when diploid, an individual will be a female if heterozygous and male if homozygous. Significant diploid male (DM) production may drive a population to an extinction scenario called "diploid male vortex". We aimed at studying the dynamics of populations of a sl-CSD organism under several combinations of two parameters: male flight abilities and number of sexual alleles. In these simulations, we evaluated the frequency of DM and a genetic diversity measure over 10,000 generations. The number of sexual alleles varied from 10 to 100 and, at each generation, a male offspring might fly to another random site within a varying radius R. Two main results emerge from our simulations: (i) the number of DM depends more on male flight radius than on the number of alleles; (ii) in large geographic regions, the effect of males flight radius on the allelic diversity turns out much less pronounced than in small regions. In other words, small regions where inbreeding normally appears recover genetic diversity due to large flight radii. These results may be particularly relevant when considering the population dynamics of species with increasingly limited dispersal ability (e.g., forest-dependent species of euglossine bees in fragmented landscapes).

Dynamics of Population on the Verge of Extinction

OpenAIRE

Oborny, B.; Meszena, G.; Szabo, G.

2005-01-01

Theoretical considerations suggest that extinction in dispersal-limited populations is necessarily a threshold-like process that is analogous to a critical phase transition in physics. We use this analogy to find robust, common features in the dynamics of extinctions, and suggest early warning signals which may indicate that a population is endangered. As the critical threshold of extinction is approached, the population spontaneously fragments into discrete subpopulations and, consequently, ...

Stochastic population dynamics of a montane ground-dwelling squirrel.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jeffrey A Hostetler

Full Text Available Understanding the causes and consequences of population fluctuations is a central goal of ecology. We used demographic data from a long-term (1990-2008 study and matrix population models to investigate factors and processes influencing the dynamics and persistence of a golden-mantled ground squirrel (Callospermophilus lateralis population, inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat in Colorado, USA. The overall deterministic population growth rate λ was 0.94±SE 0.05 but it varied widely over time, ranging from 0.45±0.09 in 2006 to 1.50±0.12 in 2003, and was below replacement (λ<1 for 9 out of 18 years. The stochastic population growth rate λ(s was 0.92, suggesting a declining population; however, the 95% CI on λ(s included 1.0 (0.52-1.60. Stochastic elasticity analysis showed that survival of adult females, followed by survival of juvenile females and litter size, were potentially the most influential vital rates; analysis of life table response experiments revealed that the same three life history variables made the largest contributions to year-to year changes in λ. Population viability analysis revealed that, when the influences of density dependence and immigration were not considered, the population had a high (close to 1.0 in 50 years probability of extinction. However, probability of extinction declined to as low as zero when density dependence and immigration were considered. Destabilizing effects of stochastic forces were counteracted by regulating effects of density dependence and rescue effects of immigration, which allowed our study population to bounce back from low densities and prevented extinction. These results suggest that dynamics and persistence of our study population are determined synergistically by density-dependence, stochastic forces, and immigration.

[The dynamics of heath indicators of population of industrial town].

Science.gov (United States)

Kalinkin, D E; Karpov, A B; Takhauov, R M; Samoĭlova, Iu A

2013-01-01

The article presents the results of analysis of dynamics of health indicators of population of industrial town (medical demographic indicators, disability, morbidity of social hygienically important diseases) during 1970-2010. The classified administrative territorial municipality of Seversk constructed near the Siberian chemical industrial center, the internationally first-rate complex of nuclear industry enterprises was used as a research base. It is demonstrated that dynamics of health indicators of studied population had such negative tendencies as rapid population ageing, population loss due to decrease of natality and increase of mortality (population of able-bodied age included), prevalence of cardio-vascular diseases, malignant neoplasms and external causes, chronization of diseases. The established tendencies are to be considered in management decision making targeted to support and promote population health in industrial towns.

Network evolution induced by the dynamical rules of two populations

Science.gov (United States)

Platini, Thierry; Zia, R. K. P.

2010-10-01

We study the dynamical properties of a finite dynamical network composed of two interacting populations, namely extrovert (a) and introvert (b). In our model, each group is characterized by its size (Na and Nb) and preferred degree (κa and \\kappa_b\\ll \\kappa_a ). The network dynamics is governed by the competing microscopic rules of each population that consist of the creation and destruction of links. Starting from an unconnected network, we give a detailed analysis of the mean field approach which is compared to Monte Carlo simulation data. The time evolution of the restricted degrees langkbbrang and langkabrang presents three time regimes and a non-monotonic behavior well captured by our theory. Surprisingly, when the population sizes are equal Na = Nb, the ratio of the restricted degree θ0 = langkabrang/langkbbrang appears to be an integer in the asymptotic limits of the three time regimes. For early times (defined by t introverts remains constant while the number of connections increases linearly in the extrovert population. Finally, due to the competing dynamics, the network presents a frustrated stationary state characterized by a ratio θ0 = 3.

Desiccation and Mortality Dynamics in Seedlings of Different European Beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) Populations under Extreme Drought Conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Bolte, Andreas; Czajkowski, Tomasz; Cocozza, Claudia; Tognetti, Roberto; de Miguel, Marina; Pšidová, Eva; Ditmarová, Ĺubica; Dinca, Lucian; Delzon, Sylvain; Cochard, Hervè; Ræbild, Anders; de Luis, Martin; Cvjetkovic, Branislav; Heiri, Caroline; Müller, Jürgen

2016-01-01

European beech (Fagus sylvatica L., hereafter beech), one of the major native tree species in Europe, is known to be drought sensitive. Thus, the identification of critical thresholds of drought impact intensity and duration are of high interest for assessing the adaptive potential of European beech to climate change in its native range. In a common garden experiment with one-year-old seedlings originating from central and marginal origins in six European countries (Denmark, Germany, France, Romania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Spain), we applied extreme drought stress and observed desiccation and mortality processes among the different populations and related them to plant water status (predawn water potential, ΨPD) and soil hydraulic traits. For the lethal drought assessment, we used a critical threshold of soil water availability that is reached when 50% mortality in seedling populations occurs (LD50SWA). We found significant population differences in LD50SWA (10.5–17.8%), and mortality dynamics that suggest a genetic difference in drought resistance between populations. The LD50SWA values correlate significantly with the mean growing season precipitation at population origins, but not with the geographic margins of beech range. Thus, beech range marginality may be more due to climatic conditions than to geographic range. The outcome of this study suggests the genetic variation has a major influence on the varying adaptive potential of the investigated populations. PMID:27379105

Bounds on the dynamics of sink populations with noisy immigration.

Science.gov (United States)

Eager, Eric Alan; Guiver, Chris; Hodgson, Dave; Rebarber, Richard; Stott, Iain; Townley, Stuart

2014-03-01

Sink populations are doomed to decline to extinction in the absence of immigration. The dynamics of sink populations are not easily modelled using the standard framework of per capita rates of immigration, because numbers of immigrants are determined by extrinsic sources (for example, source populations, or population managers). Here we appeal to a systems and control framework to place upper and lower bounds on both the transient and future dynamics of sink populations that are subject to noisy immigration. Immigration has a number of interpretations and can fit a wide variety of models found in the literature. We apply the results to case studies derived from published models for Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and blowout penstemon (Penstemon haydenii). Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Population dynamics model for plasmid bearing and plasmid lacking ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Streptokinase production in bioreactor is well associated to cell population dynamics. It is an established fact that two types of cell populations are found to emerge from the initial pool of recombinant cell population. This phenomenon leads to an undesired loss in yield of the product. Primary metabolites, like acetic acid etc ...

Passivity analysis of higher order evolutionary dynamics and population games

KAUST Repository

Mabrok, Mohamed

2017-01-05

Evolutionary dynamics describe how the population composition changes in response to the fitness levels, resulting in a closed-loop feedback system. Recent work established a connection between passivity theory and certain classes of population games, namely so-called “stable games”. In particular, it was shown that a combination of stable games and (an analogue of) passive evolutionary dynamics results in stable convergence to Nash equilibrium. This paper considers the converse question of necessary conditions for evolutionary dynamics to exhibit stable behaviors for all generalized stable games. Using methods from robust control analysis, we show that if an evolutionary dynamic does not satisfy a passivity property, then it is possible to construct a generalized stable game that results in instability. The results are illustrated on selected evolutionary dynamics with particular attention to replicator dynamics, which are also shown to be lossless, a special class of passive systems.

Population dynamics of Pseudo-nitzschia species ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The genus Pseudo-nitzschia is a chain-forming diatom comprising about 30 species some of which are known to produce domoic acid (DA) that causes amnesic shellfish poisoning (ASP). The current study aimed at assessing the population dynamics of Pseudo-nitzschia in the near shore waters of Dar es Salaam. Samples ...

Effects of demographic structure on key properties of stochastic density-independent population dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

Vindenes, Yngvild; Sæther, Bernt-Erik; Engen, Steinar

2012-12-01

The development of stochastic demography has largely been based on age structured populations, although other types of demographic structure, especially permanent and dynamic heterogeneity, are likely common in natural populations. The combination of stochasticity and demographic structure is a challenge for analyses of population dynamics and extinction risk, because the population structure will fluctuate around the stable structure and the population size shows transient fluctuations. However, by using a diffusion approximation for the total reproductive value, density-independent dynamics of structured populations can be described with only three population parameters: the expected population growth rate, the environmental variance and the demographic variance. These parameters depend on population structure via the state-specific vital rates and transition rates. Once they are found, the diffusion approximation represents a substantial reduction in model complexity. Here, we review and compare the key population parameters across a wide range of demographic structure, from the case of no structure to the most general case of dynamic heterogeneity, and for both discrete and continuous types. We focus on the demographic variance, but also show how environmental stochasticity can be included. This study brings together results from recent models, each considering a specific type of population structure, and places them in a general framework for structured populations. Comparison across different types of demographic structure reveals that the reproductive value is an essential concept for understanding how population structure affects stochastic dynamics and extinction risk. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Polar bear population dynamics in the southern Beaufort Sea during a period of sea ice decline

Science.gov (United States)

Bromaghin, Jeffrey F.; McDonald, Trent L.; Stirling, Ian; Derocher, Andrew E.; Richardson, Evan S.; Regehr, Eric V.; Douglas, David C.; Durner, George M.; Atwood, Todd C.; Amstrup, Steven C.

2015-01-01

In the southern Beaufort Sea of the United States and Canada, prior investigations have linked declines in summer sea ice to reduced physical condition, growth, and survival of polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Combined with projections of population decline due to continued climate warming and the ensuing loss of sea ice habitat, those findings contributed to the 2008 decision to list the species as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Here, we used mark–recapture models to investigate the population dynamics of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea from 2001 to 2010, years during which the spatial and temporal extent of summer sea ice generally declined. Low survival from 2004 through 2006 led to a 25–50% decline in abundance. We hypothesize that low survival during this period resulted from (1) unfavorable ice conditions that limited access to prey during multiple seasons; and possibly, (2) low prey abundance. For reasons that are not clear, survival of adults and cubs began to improve in 2007 and abundance was comparatively stable from 2008 to 2010, with ~900 bears in 2010 (90% CI 606–1212). However, survival of subadult bears declined throughout the entire period. Reduced spatial and temporal availability of sea ice is expected to increasingly force population dynamics of polar bears as the climate continues to warm. However, in the short term, our findings suggest that factors other than sea ice can influence survival. A refined understanding of the ecological mechanisms underlying polar bear population dynamics is necessary to improve projections of their future status and facilitate development of management strategies.

A necessary condition for dispersal driven growth of populations with discrete patch dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

Guiver, Chris; Packman, David; Townley, Stuart

2017-07-07

We revisit the question of when can dispersal-induced coupling between discrete sink populations cause overall population growth? Such a phenomenon is called dispersal driven growth and provides a simple explanation of how dispersal can allow populations to persist across discrete, spatially heterogeneous, environments even when individual patches are adverse or unfavourable. For two classes of mathematical models, one linear and one non-linear, we provide necessary conditions for dispersal driven growth in terms of the non-existence of a common linear Lyapunov function, which we describe. Our approach draws heavily upon the underlying positive dynamical systems structure. Our results apply to both discrete- and continuous-time models. The theory is illustrated with examples and both biological and mathematical conclusions are drawn. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

On the population dynamics of the malaria vector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ngwa, G.A.

2005-10-01

A deterministic differential equation model for the population dynamics of the human malaria vector is derived and studied. Conditions for the existence and stability of a non-zero steady state vector population density are derived. These reveal that a threshold parameter, the vectorial basic reproduction number, exist and the vector can establish itself in the community if and only if this parameter exceeds unity. When a non-zero steady state population density exists, it can be stable but it can also be driven to instability via a Hopf Bifurcation to periodic solutions, as a parameter is varied in parameter space. By considering a special case, an asymptotic perturbation analysis is used to derive the amplitude of the oscillating solutions for the full non-linear system. The present modelling exercise and results show that it is possible to study the population dynamics of disease vectors, and hence oscillatory behaviour as it is often observed in most indirectly transmitted infectious diseases of humans, without recourse to external seasonal forcing. (author)

Endogenous technological and population change under increasing water scarcity

Science.gov (United States)

Pande, S.; Ertsen, M.; Sivapalan, M.

2013-11-01

The ancient civilization in the Indus Valley civilization dispersed under extreme dry conditions; there are indications that the same holds for many other ancient societies. Even contemporary societies, such as the one in Murrumbidgee river basin in Australia, have started to witness a decline in overall population under increasing water scarcity. Hydroclimatic change may not be the sole predictor of the fate of contemporary societies in water scarce regions and many critics of such (perceived) hydroclimatic determinism have suggested that technological change may ameliorate the effects of increasing water scarcity and as such counter the effects of hydroclimatic changes. To study the role of technological change on the dynamics of coupled human-water systems, we develop a simple overlapping-generations model of endogenous technological and demographic change. We model technological change as an endogenous process that depends on factors such as the investments that are (endogenously) made in a society, the (endogenous) diversification of a society into skilled and unskilled workers, a society's patience in terms of its present consumption vs. future consumption, production technology and the (endogenous) interaction of all of these factors. In the model the population growth rate is programmed to decline once consumption per capita crosses a "survival" threshold. This means we do not treat technology as an exogenous random sequence of events, but instead assume that it results (endogenously) from societal actions. The model demonstrates that technological change may indeed ameliorate the effects of increasing water scarcity but typically it does so only to a certain extent. It is possible that technological change may allow a society to escape the effect of increasing water scarcity, leading to a (super)-exponential rise in technology and population. However, such cases require the rate of success of investment in technological advancement to be high. In other

Dynamic regime of coherent population trapping and optimization of frequency modulation parameters in atomic clocks.

Science.gov (United States)

Yudin, V I; Taichenachev, A V; Basalaev, M Yu; Kovalenko, D V

2017-02-06

We theoretically investigate the dynamic regime of coherent population trapping (CPT) in the presence of frequency modulation (FM). We have formulated the criteria for quasi-stationary (adiabatic) and dynamic (non-adiabatic) responses of atomic system driven by this FM. Using the density matrix formalism for Λ system, the error signal is exactly calculated and optimized. It is shown that the optimal FM parameters correspond to the dynamic regime of atomic-field interaction, which significantly differs from conventional description of CPT resonances in the frame of quasi-stationary approach (under small modulation frequency). Obtained theoretical results are in good qualitative agreement with different experiments. Also we have found CPT-analogue of Pound-Driver-Hall regime of frequency stabilization.

High population variability and source-sink dynamics in a solitary bee species.

Science.gov (United States)

Franzén, Markus; Nilsson, Sven G

2013-06-01

Although solitary bees are considered to play key roles in ecosystem functions, surprisingly few studies have explored their population dynamics. We investigated the population dynamics of a rare, declining, solitary bee (Andrena humilis) in a landscape of 80 km2 in southern Sweden from 2003 to 2011. Only one population was persistent throughout all years studied; most likely this population supplied the surrounding landscape with 11 smaller, temporary local populations. Despite stable pollen availability, the size of the persistent population fluctuated dramatically in a two-year cycle over the nine years, with 490-1230 nests in odd-numbered years and 21-48 nests in even-numbered years. These fluctuations were not significantly related to climatic variables or pollen availability. Nineteen colonization and 14 extinction events were recorded. Occupancy decreased with distance from the persistent population and increased with increasing resource (pollen) availability. There were significant positive correlations between the size of the persistent population and patch occupancy and colonization. Colonizations were generally more common in patches closer to the persistent population, whereas extinctions were independent of distance from the persistent population. Our results highlight the complex population dynamics that exist for this solitary bee species, which could be due to source-sink dynamics, a prolonged diapause, or can represent a bet-hedging strategy to avoid natural enemies and survive in small habitat patches. If large fluctuations in solitary bee populations prove to be widespread, it will have important implications for interpreting ecological relationships, bee conservation, and pollination.

Population dynamics of European honey bee genotypes under different environmental conditions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hatjina, Fani; Costa, Cecilia; Büchler, Ralph

2014-01-01

- environment interactions and their effects on colony development, which we use in this study as a measure of their vitality. We found that colonies placed in Southern Europe tend to have lower adult bee populations compared to colonies placed in colder conditions, while the brood population tends...... to be smaller in the North, thus reflecting the shorter longevity of bees in warmer climates and the shorter brood rearing period in the North. We found that both genotype and environment significantly affect colony development, and that specific adaptations exist, especially in terms of adult bee population...

A new ODE tumor growth modeling based on tumor population dynamics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Oroji, Amin; Omar, Mohd bin [Institute of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science University of Malaya, 50603 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia amin.oroji@siswa.um.edu.my, mohd@um.edu.my (Malaysia); Yarahmadian, Shantia [Mathematics Department Mississippi State University, USA Syarahmadian@math.msstate.edu (United States)

2015-10-22

In this paper a new mathematical model for the population of tumor growth treated by radiation is proposed. The cells dynamics population in each state and the dynamics of whole tumor population are studied. Furthermore, a new definition of tumor lifespan is presented. Finally, the effects of two main parameters, treatment parameter (q), and repair mechanism parameter (r) on tumor lifespan are probed, and it is showed that the change in treatment parameter (q) highly affects the tumor lifespan.

A new ODE tumor growth modeling based on tumor population dynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oroji, Amin; Omar, Mohd bin; Yarahmadian, Shantia

2015-01-01

In this paper a new mathematical model for the population of tumor growth treated by radiation is proposed. The cells dynamics population in each state and the dynamics of whole tumor population are studied. Furthermore, a new definition of tumor lifespan is presented. Finally, the effects of two main parameters, treatment parameter (q), and repair mechanism parameter (r) on tumor lifespan are probed, and it is showed that the change in treatment parameter (q) highly affects the tumor lifespan

Calculating evolutionary dynamics in structured populations.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Charles G Nathanson

2009-12-01

Full Text Available Evolution is shaping the world around us. At the core of every evolutionary process is a population of reproducing individuals. The outcome of an evolutionary process depends on population structure. Here we provide a general formula for calculating evolutionary dynamics in a wide class of structured populations. This class includes the recently introduced "games in phenotype space" and "evolutionary set theory." There can be local interactions for determining the relative fitness of individuals, but we require global updating, which means all individuals compete uniformly for reproduction. We study the competition of two strategies in the context of an evolutionary game and determine which strategy is favored in the limit of weak selection. We derive an intuitive formula for the structure coefficient, sigma, and provide a method for efficient numerical calculation.

Changing population dynamics and uneven temperature emergence combine to exacerbate regional exposure to heat extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C of warming

Science.gov (United States)

Harrington, Luke J.; Otto, Friederike E. L.

2018-03-01

Understanding how continuing increases in global mean temperature will exacerbate societal exposure to extreme weather events is a question of profound importance. However, determining population exposure to the impacts of heat extremes at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global mean warming requires not only (1) a robust understanding of the physical climate system response, but also consideration of (2) projected changes to overall population size, as well as (3) changes to where people will live in the future. This analysis introduces a new framework, adapted from studies of probabilistic event attribution, to disentangle the relative importance of regional climate emergence and changing population dynamics in the exposure to future heat extremes across multiple densely populated regions in Southern Asia and Eastern Africa (SAEA). Our results reveal that, when population is kept at 2015 levels, exposure to heat considered severe in the present decade across SAEA will increase by a factor of 4.1 (2.4-9.6) and 15.8 (5.0-135) under a 1.5°- and 2.0°-warmer world, respectively. Furthermore, projected population changes by the end of the century under an SSP1 and SSP2 scenario can further exacerbate these changes by a factor of 1.2 (1.0-1.3) and 1.5 (1.3-1.7), respectively. However, a large fraction of this additional risk increase is not related to absolute increases in population, but instead attributed to changes in which regions exhibit continued population growth into the future. Further, this added impact of population redistribution will be twice as significant after 2.0 °C of warming, relative to stabilisation at 1.5 °C, due to the non-linearity of increases in heat exposure. Irrespective of the population scenario considered, continued African population expansion will place more people in locations where emergent changes to future heat extremes are exceptionally severe.

Global dynamics of oscillator populations under common noise

Science.gov (United States)

Braun, W.; Pikovsky, A.; Matias, M. A.; Colet, P.

2012-07-01

Common noise acting on a population of identical oscillators can synchronize them. We develop a description of this process which is not limited to the states close to synchrony, but provides a global picture of the evolution of the ensembles. The theory is based on the Watanabe-Strogatz transformation, allowing us to obtain closed stochastic equations for the global variables. We show that at the initial stage, the order parameter grows linearly in time, while at the later stages the convergence to synchrony is exponentially fast. Furthermore, we extend the theory to nonidentical ensembles with the Lorentzian distribution of natural frequencies and determine the stationary values of the order parameter in dependence on driving noise and mismatch.

Evolutionary dynamics under interactive diversity

Science.gov (United States)

Su, Qi; Li, Aming; Wang, Long

2017-10-01

As evidenced by many cases in human societies, individuals often make different behavior decisions in different interactions, and adaptively adjust their behavior in changeable interactive scenarios. However, up to now, how such diverse interactive behavior affects cooperation dynamics has still remained unknown. Here we develop a general framework of interactive diversity, which models individuals’ separated behavior against distinct opponents and their adaptive adjustment in response to opponents’ strategies, to explore the evolution of cooperation. We find that interactive diversity enables individuals to reciprocate every single opponent, and thus sustains large-scale reciprocal interactions. Our work witnesses an impressive boost of cooperation for a notably extensive range of parameters and for all pairwise games. These results are robust against well-mixed and various networked populations, and against degree-normalized and cumulative payoff patterns. From the perspective of network dynamics, distinguished from individuals competing for nodes in most previous work, in this paper, the system evolves in the form of behavior disseminating along edges. We propose a theoretical method based on evolution of edges, which predicts well both the frequency of cooperation and the compact cooperation clusters. Our thorough investigation clarifies the positive role of interactive diversity in resolving social dilemmas and highlights the significance of understanding evolutionary dynamics from the viewpoint of edge dynamics.

Modeling structured population dynamics using data from unmarked individuals

Science.gov (United States)

Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Zipkin, Elise; Thorson, James T.; See, Kevin; Lynch, Heather J.; Kanno, Yoichiro; Chandler, Richard; Letcher, Benjamin H.; Royle, J. Andrew

2014-01-01

The study of population dynamics requires unbiased, precise estimates of abundance and vital rates that account for the demographic structure inherent in all wildlife and plant populations. Traditionally, these estimates have only been available through approaches that rely on intensive mark–recapture data. We extended recently developed N-mixture models to demonstrate how demographic parameters and abundance can be estimated for structured populations using only stage-structured count data. Our modeling framework can be used to make reliable inferences on abundance as well as recruitment, immigration, stage-specific survival, and detection rates during sampling. We present a range of simulations to illustrate the data requirements, including the number of years and locations necessary for accurate and precise parameter estimates. We apply our modeling framework to a population of northern dusky salamanders (Desmognathus fuscus) in the mid-Atlantic region (USA) and find that the population is unexpectedly declining. Our approach represents a valuable advance in the estimation of population dynamics using multistate data from unmarked individuals and should additionally be useful in the development of integrated models that combine data from intensive (e.g., mark–recapture) and extensive (e.g., counts) data sources.

Dynamics of buckbrush populations under simulated forest restoration alternatives (P-53)

Science.gov (United States)

David W. Huffman; Margaret M. Moore

2008-01-01

Plant population models are valuable tools for assessing ecological tradeoffs between forest management approaches. In addition, these models can provide insight on plant life history patterns and processes important for persistence and recovery of populations in changing environments. In this study, we evaluated a set of ecological restoration alternatives for their...

Population dynamics and distribution of the coffee berry borer ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Population dynamics and distribution of coffee berry borer, Hypothenemus hampei (Ferrari) (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) were studied on Coffea arabica L. in southwestern region of Ethiopia. Thirty coffee trees were sampled at weekly intervals from 2000 to 2001. Findings of this study showed that coffee berry borer population ...

[Population dynamics and armed violence in Colombia, 1985-2010].

Science.gov (United States)

Salaya, Hernán Eduardo; Rodríguez, Jesús

2014-09-01

Describe changes in the population structure of Colombia's municipalities in relation to internal displacement in response to armed violence. A descriptive ecological study was carried out. Secondary sources were consulted, taken from the Consolidated Registry of Displaced Population and from the National Administrative Department of Statistics, to calculate expulsion and reception rates for population displaced by violence from 2002 to 2010. Based on these rates, four groups were created of municipalities in the extreme quartile for each rate during the entire period, which were classified as high expulsion, low expulsion, high reception, and low reception. Subsequently, population pyramids and structure indicators were constructed for each group of municipalities for two comparative reference years (1985 and 2010). Municipalities with high expulsion or reception rates experienced a slower epidemiological transition, with lower mean ages and aging indices. The high expulsion group had the least regression, based on the Sundbärg index. In the high reception group, the masculinity ratio decreased the most, especially among the economically active population, and it had the highest population growth. Population dynamics in Colombia have been affected by armed violence and changes in these dynamics are not uniform across the country, leading to important social, economic, and cultural consequences. This study is useful for decision-making and public policy making.

Homogenization techniques for population dynamics in strongly heterogeneous landscapes.

Science.gov (United States)

Yurk, Brian P; Cobbold, Christina A

2018-12-01

An important problem in spatial ecology is to understand how population-scale patterns emerge from individual-level birth, death, and movement processes. These processes, which depend on local landscape characteristics, vary spatially and may exhibit sharp transitions through behavioural responses to habitat edges, leading to discontinuous population densities. Such systems can be modelled using reaction-diffusion equations with interface conditions that capture local behaviour at patch boundaries. In this work we develop a novel homogenization technique to approximate the large-scale dynamics of the system. We illustrate our approach, which also generalizes to multiple species, with an example of logistic growth within a periodic environment. We find that population persistence and the large-scale population carrying capacity is influenced by patch residence times that depend on patch preference, as well as movement rates in adjacent patches. The forms of the homogenized coefficients yield key theoretical insights into how large-scale dynamics arise from the small-scale features.

More or less-On the influence of labelling strategies to infer cell population dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

Gabel, Michael; Regoes, Roland R; Graw, Frederik

2017-01-01

The adoptive transfer of labelled cell populations has been an essential tool to determine and quantify cellular dynamics. The experimental methods to label and track cells over time range from fluorescent dyes over congenic markers towards single-cell labelling techniques, such as genetic barcodes. While these methods have been widely used to quantify cell differentiation and division dynamics, the extent to which the applied labelling strategy actually affects the quantification of the dynamics has not been determined so far. This is especially important in situations where measurements can only be obtained at a single time point, as e.g. due to organ harvest. To this end, we studied the appropriateness of various labelling strategies as characterised by the number of different labels and the initial number of cells per label to quantify cellular dynamics. We simulated adoptive transfer experiments in systems of various complexity that assumed either homoeostatic cellular turnover or cell expansion dynamics involving various steps of cell differentiation and proliferation. Re-sampling cells at a single time point, we determined the ability of different labelling strategies to recover the underlying kinetics. Our results indicate that cell transition and expansion rates are differently affected by experimental shortcomings, such as loss of cells during transfer or sampling, dependent on the labelling strategy used. Furthermore, uniformly distributed labels in the transferred population generally lead to more robust and less biased results than non-equal label sizes. In addition, our analysis indicates that certain labelling approaches incorporate a systematic bias for the identification of complex cell expansion dynamics.

More or less-On the influence of labelling strategies to infer cell population dynamics.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael Gabel

Full Text Available The adoptive transfer of labelled cell populations has been an essential tool to determine and quantify cellular dynamics. The experimental methods to label and track cells over time range from fluorescent dyes over congenic markers towards single-cell labelling techniques, such as genetic barcodes. While these methods have been widely used to quantify cell differentiation and division dynamics, the extent to which the applied labelling strategy actually affects the quantification of the dynamics has not been determined so far. This is especially important in situations where measurements can only be obtained at a single time point, as e.g. due to organ harvest. To this end, we studied the appropriateness of various labelling strategies as characterised by the number of different labels and the initial number of cells per label to quantify cellular dynamics. We simulated adoptive transfer experiments in systems of various complexity that assumed either homoeostatic cellular turnover or cell expansion dynamics involving various steps of cell differentiation and proliferation. Re-sampling cells at a single time point, we determined the ability of different labelling strategies to recover the underlying kinetics. Our results indicate that cell transition and expansion rates are differently affected by experimental shortcomings, such as loss of cells during transfer or sampling, dependent on the labelling strategy used. Furthermore, uniformly distributed labels in the transferred population generally lead to more robust and less biased results than non-equal label sizes. In addition, our analysis indicates that certain labelling approaches incorporate a systematic bias for the identification of complex cell expansion dynamics.

Understanding long-term fruit fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) population dynamics: implications for areawide management.

Science.gov (United States)

Aluja, Martín; Ordano, Mariano; Guillén, Larissa; Rull, Juan

2012-06-01

Fruit flies (Diptera: Tephritidae) are devastating agricultural pests worldwide but studies on their long-term population dynamics are sparse. Our aim was to determine the mechanisms driving long-term population dynamics as a prerequisite for ecologically based areawide pest management. The population density of three pestiferous Anastrepha species [Anastrepha ludens (Loew), Anastrepha obliqua (Macquart), and Anastrepha serpentina (Wiedemann)] was determined in grapefruit (Citrus x paradisi Macfad.), mango (Mangifera indica L.), and sapodilla [Manilkara zapota (L.) P. Royen] orchards in central Veracruz, México, on a weekly basis over an 11-yr period. Fly populations exhibited relatively stable dynamics over time. Population dynamics were mainly driven by a direct density-dependent effect and a seasonal feedback process. We discovered direct and delayed influences that were correlated with both local (rainfall and air temperature) and global climatic variation (El Niño Southern Oscillation [ENSO] and North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO]), and detected differences among species and location of orchards with respect to the magnitude and nature (linear or nonlinear) of the observed effects, suggesting that highly mobile pest outbreaks become uncertain in response to significant climatic events at both global and local levels. That both NAO and ENSO affected Anastrepha population dynamics, coupled with the high mobility of Anastrepha adults and the discovery that when measured as rate of population change, local population fluctuations exhibited stable dynamics over time, suggests potential management scenarios for the species studied lie beyond the local scale and should be approached from an areawide perspective. Localized efforts, from individual growers will probably prove ineffective, and nonsustainable.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of a fish predator: Density-dependent and hydrographic effects on Baltic Sea cod population.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Valerio Bartolino

Full Text Available Understanding the mechanisms of spatial population dynamics is crucial for the successful management of exploited species and ecosystems. However, the underlying mechanisms of spatial distribution are generally complex due to the concurrent forcing of both density-dependent species interactions and density-independent environmental factors. Despite the high economic value and central ecological importance of cod in the Baltic Sea, the drivers of its spatio-temporal population dynamics have not been analytically investigated so far. In this paper, we used an extensive trawl survey dataset in combination with environmental data to investigate the spatial dynamics of the distribution of the Eastern Baltic cod during the past three decades using Generalized Additive Models. The results showed that adult cod distribution was mainly affected by cod population size, and to a minor degree by small-scale hydrological factors and the extent of suitable reproductive areas. As population size decreases, the cod population concentrates to the southern part of the Baltic Sea, where the preferred more marine environment conditions are encountered. Using the fitted models, we predicted the Baltic cod distribution back to the 1970s and a temporal index of cod spatial occupation was developed. Our study will contribute to the management and conservation of this important resource and of the ecosystem where it occurs, by showing the forces shaping its spatial distribution and therefore the potential response of the population to future exploitation and environmental changes.

Dispersal, density dependence, and population dynamics of a fungal microbe on leaf surfaces.

Science.gov (United States)

Woody, Scott T; Ives, Anthony R; Nordheim, Erik V; Andrews, John H

2007-06-01

Despite the ubiquity and importance of microbes in nature, little is known about their natural population dynamics, especially for those that occupy terrestrial habitats. Here we investigate the dynamics of the yeast-like fungus Aureobasidium pullulans (Ap) on apple leaves in an orchard. We asked three questions. (1) Is variation in fungal population density among leaves caused by variation in leaf carrying capacities and strong density-dependent population growth that maintains densities near carrying capacity? (2) Do resident populations have competitive advantages over immigrant cells? (3) Do Ap dynamics differ at different times during the growing season? To address these questions, we performed two experiments at different times in the growing season. Both experiments used a 2 x 2 factorial design: treatment 1 removed fungal cells from leaves to reveal density-dependent population growth, and treatment 2 inoculated leaves with an Ap strain engineered to express green fluorescent protein (GFP), which made it possible to track the fate of immigrant cells. The experiments showed that natural populations of Ap vary greatly in density due to sustained differences in carrying capacities among leaves. The maintenance of populations close to carrying capacities indicates strong density-dependent processes. Furthermore, resident populations are strongly competitive against immigrants, while immigrants have little impact on residents. Finally, statistical models showed high population growth rates of resident cells in one experiment but not in the other, suggesting that Ap experiences relatively "good" and "bad" periods for population growth. This picture of Ap dynamics conforms to commonly held, but rarely demonstrated, expectations of microbe dynamics in nature. It also highlights the importance of local processes, as opposed to immigration, in determining the abundance and dynamics of microbes on surfaces in terrestrial systems.

Passivity analysis of higher order evolutionary dynamics and population games

KAUST Repository

Mabrok, Mohamed; Shamma, Jeff S.

2017-01-01

Evolutionary dynamics describe how the population composition changes in response to the fitness levels, resulting in a closed-loop feedback system. Recent work established a connection between passivity theory and certain classes of population

Social Information Links Individual Behavior to Population and Community Dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

Gil, Michael A; Hein, Andrew M; Spiegel, Orr; Baskett, Marissa L; Sih, Andrew

2018-05-07

When individual animals make decisions, they routinely use information produced intentionally or unintentionally by other individuals. Despite its prevalence and established fitness consequences, the effects of such social information on ecological dynamics remain poorly understood. Here, we synthesize results from ecology, evolutionary biology, and animal behavior to show how the use of social information can profoundly influence the dynamics of populations and communities. We combine recent theoretical and empirical results and introduce simple population models to illustrate how social information use can drive positive density-dependent growth of populations and communities (Allee effects). Furthermore, social information can shift the nature and strength of species interactions, change the outcome of competition, and potentially increase extinction risk in harvested populations and communities. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Network evolution induced by the dynamical rules of two populations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Platini, Thierry; Zia, R K P

2010-01-01

We study the dynamical properties of a finite dynamical network composed of two interacting populations, namely extrovert (a) and introvert (b). In our model, each group is characterized by its size (N a and N b ) and preferred degree (κ a and κ b a ). The network dynamics is governed by the competing microscopic rules of each population that consist of the creation and destruction of links. Starting from an unconnected network, we give a detailed analysis of the mean field approach which is compared to Monte Carlo simulation data. The time evolution of the restricted degrees (k bb ) and (k ab ) presents three time regimes and a non-monotonic behavior well captured by our theory. Surprisingly, when the population sizes are equal N a = N b , the ratio of the restricted degree θ 0 = (k ab )/(k bb ) appears to be an integer in the asymptotic limits of the three time regimes. For early times (defined by t 1 = κ b ) the total number of links presents a linear evolution, where the two populations are indistinguishable and where θ 0 = 1. Interestingly, in the intermediate time regime (defined for t 1 2 ∝κ a and for which θ 0 = 5), the system reaches a transient stationary state, where the number of contacts among introverts remains constant while the number of connections increases linearly in the extrovert population. Finally, due to the competing dynamics, the network presents a frustrated stationary state characterized by a ratio θ 0 = 3

Von Bertalanffy's dynamics under a polynomial correction: Allee effect and big bang bifurcation

Science.gov (United States)

Leonel Rocha, J.; Taha, A. K.; Fournier-Prunaret, D.

2016-02-01

In this work we consider new one-dimensional populational discrete dynamical systems in which the growth of the population is described by a family of von Bertalanffy's functions, as a dynamical approach to von Bertalanffy's growth equation. The purpose of introducing Allee effect in those models is satisfied under a correction factor of polynomial type. We study classes of von Bertalanffy's functions with different types of Allee effect: strong and weak Allee's functions. Dependent on the variation of four parameters, von Bertalanffy's functions also includes another class of important functions: functions with no Allee effect. The complex bifurcation structures of these von Bertalanffy's functions is investigated in detail. We verified that this family of functions has particular bifurcation structures: the big bang bifurcation of the so-called “box-within-a-box” type. The big bang bifurcation is associated to the asymptotic weight or carrying capacity. This work is a contribution to the study of the big bang bifurcation analysis for continuous maps and their relationship with explosion birth and extinction phenomena.

Learning to Estimate Dynamical State with Probabilistic Population Codes.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joseph G Makin

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Tracking moving objects, including one's own body, is a fundamental ability of higher organisms, playing a central role in many perceptual and motor tasks. While it is unknown how the brain learns to follow and predict the dynamics of objects, it is known that this process of state estimation can be learned purely from the statistics of noisy observations. When the dynamics are simply linear with additive Gaussian noise, the optimal solution is the well known Kalman filter (KF, the parameters of which can be learned via latent-variable density estimation (the EM algorithm. The brain does not, however, directly manipulate matrices and vectors, but instead appears to represent probability distributions with the firing rates of population of neurons, "probabilistic population codes." We show that a recurrent neural network-a modified form of an exponential family harmonium (EFH-that takes a linear probabilistic population code as input can learn, without supervision, to estimate the state of a linear dynamical system. After observing a series of population responses (spike counts to the position of a moving object, the network learns to represent the velocity of the object and forms nearly optimal predictions about the position at the next time-step. This result builds on our previous work showing that a similar network can learn to perform multisensory integration and coordinate transformations for static stimuli. The receptive fields of the trained network also make qualitative predictions about the developing and learning brain: tuning gradually emerges for higher-order dynamical states not explicitly present in the inputs, appearing as delayed tuning for the lower-order states.

Building the bridge between animal movement and population dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

Morales, Juan M; Moorcroft, Paul R; Matthiopoulos, Jason; Frair, Jacqueline L; Kie, John G; Powell, Roger A; Merrill, Evelyn H; Haydon, Daniel T

2010-07-27

While the mechanistic links between animal movement and population dynamics are ecologically obvious, it is much less clear when knowledge of animal movement is a prerequisite for understanding and predicting population dynamics. GPS and other technologies enable detailed tracking of animal location concurrently with acquisition of landscape data and information on individual physiology. These tools can be used to refine our understanding of the mechanistic links between behaviour and individual condition through 'spatially informed' movement models where time allocation to different behaviours affects individual survival and reproduction. For some species, socially informed models that address the movements and average fitness of differently sized groups and how they are affected by fission-fusion processes at relevant temporal scales are required. Furthermore, as most animals revisit some places and avoid others based on their previous experiences, we foresee the incorporation of long-term memory and intention in movement models. The way animals move has important consequences for the degree of mixing that we expect to find both within a population and between individuals of different species. The mixing rate dictates the level of detail required by models to capture the influence of heterogeneity and the dynamics of intra- and interspecific interaction.

The failure rate dynamics in heterogeneous populations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cha, Ji Hwan; Finkelstein, Maxim

2013-01-01

Most populations encountered in real world are heterogeneous. In reliability applications, the mixture (observed) failure rate, obviously, can be considered as a measure of ‘average’ quality in these populations. However, in addition to this average measure, some variability characteristics for failure rates can be very helpful in describing the time-dependent changes in quality of heterogeneous populations. In this paper, we discuss variance and the coefficient of variation of the corresponding random failure rate as variability measures for items in heterogeneous populations. Furthermore, there is often a risk that items of poor quality are selected for important missions. Therefore, along with the ‘average quality’ of a population, more ‘conservative’ quality measures should be also defined and studied. For this purpose, we propose the percentile and the tail-mixture of the failure rates as the corresponding conservative measures. Some illustrative examples are given. -- Highlights: ► This paper provides the insight on the variability measures in heterogeneous populations. ► The conservative quality measures in heterogeneous populations are defined. ► The utility of these measures is illustrated by meaningful examples. ► This paper provides a better understanding of the dynamics in heterogeneous populations

SIR dynamics in structured populations with heterogeneous connectivity

OpenAIRE

Volz, Erik

2005-01-01

Most epidemic models assume equal mixing among members of a population. An alternative approach is to model a population as random network in which individuals may have heterogeneous connectivity. This paper builds on previous research by describing the exact dynamical behavior of epidemics as they occur in random networks. A system of nonlinear differential equations is presented which describes the behavior of epidemics spreading through random networks with arbitrary degree distributions. ...

An age-structured population balance model for microbial dynamics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Duarte M.V.E.

2003-01-01

Full Text Available This work presents an age-structured population balance model (ASPBM for a bioprocess in a continuous stirred-tank fermentor. It relates the macroscopic properties and dynamic behavior of biomass to the operational parameters and microscopic properties of cells. Population dynamics is governed by two time- and age-dependent density functions for living and dead cells, accounting for the influence of substrate and dissolved oxygen concentrations on cell division, aging and death processes. The ASPBM described biomass and substrate oscillations in aerobic continuous cultures as experimentally observed. It is noteworthy that a small data set consisting of nonsegregated measurements was sufficient to adjust a complex segregated mathematical model.

Population Dynamics of Early Human Migration in Britain.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mayank N Vahia

Full Text Available Early human migration is largely determined by geography and human needs. These are both deterministic parameters when small populations move into unoccupied areas where conflicts and large group dynamics are not important. The early period of human migration into the British Isles provides such a laboratory which, because of its relative geographical isolation, may allow some insights into the complex dynamics of early human migration and interaction.We developed a simulation code based on human affinity to habitable land, as defined by availability of water sources, altitude, and flatness of land, in choosing the path of migration. Movement of people on the British island over the prehistoric period from their initial entry points was simulated on the basis of data from the megalithic period. Topographical and hydro-shed data from satellite databases was used to define habitability, based on distance from water bodies, flatness of the terrain, and altitude above sea level. We simulated population movement based on assumptions of affinity for more habitable places, with the rate of movement tempered by existing populations. We compared results of our computer simulations with genetic data and show that our simulation can predict fairly accurately the points of contacts between different migratory paths. Such comparison also provides more detailed information about the path of peoples' movement over ~2000 years before the present era.We demonstrate an accurate method to simulate prehistoric movements of people based upon current topographical satellite data. Our findings are validated by recently-available genetic data. Our method may prove useful in determining early human population dynamics even when no genetic information is available.

Lineage dynamics and mutation-selection balance in non-adapting asexual populations

Science.gov (United States)

Pénisson, Sophie; Sniegowski, Paul D.; Colato, Alexandre; Gerrish, Philip J.

2013-02-01

In classical population genetics, mutation-selection balance refers to the equilibrium frequency of a deleterious allele established and maintained under two opposing forces: recurrent mutation, which tends to increase the frequency of the allele; and selection, which tends to decrease its frequency. In a haploid population, if μ denotes the per capita rate of production of the deleterious allele by mutation and s denotes the selective disadvantage of carrying the allele, then the classical mutation-selection balance frequency of the allele is approximated by μ/s. This calculation assumes that lineages carrying the mutant allele in question—the ‘focal allele’—do not accumulate deleterious mutations linked to the focal allele. In principle, indirect selection against the focal allele caused by such additional mutations can decrease the frequency of the focal allele below the classical mutation-selection balance. This effect of indirect selection will be strongest in an asexual population, in which the entire genome is in linkage. Here, we use an approach based on a multitype branching process to investigate this effect, analyzing lineage dynamics under mutation, direct selection, and indirect selection in a non-adapting asexual population. We find that the equilibrium balance between recurrent mutation to the focal allele and the forces of direct and indirect selection against the focal allele is closely approximated by γμ/(s + U) (s = 0 if the focal allele is neutral), where γ ≈ eθθ-(ω+θ)(ω + θ)(Γ(ω + θ) - Γ(ω + θ,θ)), \\theta =U/\\tilde {s}, and \\omega =s/\\tilde {s}; U denotes the genomic deleterious mutation rate and \\tilde {s} denotes the geometric mean selective disadvantage of deleterious mutations elsewhere on the genome. This mutation-selection balance for asexual populations can remain surprisingly invariant over wide ranges of the mutation rate.

Population dynamics in changing environments: the case of an eruptive forest pest species.

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Kausrud, Kyrre; Okland, Bjørn; Skarpaas, Olav; Grégoire, Jean-Claude; Erbilgin, Nadir; Stenseth, Nils Chr

2012-02-01

In recent decades we have seen rapid and co-occurring changes in landscape structure, species distributions and even climate as consequences of human activity. Such changes affect the dynamics of the interaction between major forest pest species, such as bark beetles (Coleoptera: Curculionidae, Scolytinae), and their host trees. Normally breeding mostly in broken or severely stressed spruce; at high population densities some bark beetle species can colonise and kill healthy trees on scales ranging from single trees in a stand to multi-annual landscape-wide outbreaks. In Eurasia, the largest outbreaks are caused by the spruce bark beetle, Ips typographus (Linnaeus), which is common and shares a wide distribution with its main host, Norway spruce (Picea abies Karst.). A large literature is now available, from which this review aims to synthesize research relevant for the population dynamics of I. typographus and co-occurring species under changing conditions. We find that spruce bark beetle population dynamics tend to be metastable, but that mixed-species and age-heterogeneous forests with good site-matching tend to be less susceptible to large-scale outbreaks. While large accumulations of logs should be removed and/or debarked before the next swarming period, intensive removal of all coarse dead wood may be counterproductive, as it reduces the diversity of predators that in some areas may play a role in keeping I. typographus populations below the outbreak threshold, and sanitary logging frequently causes edge effects and root damage, reducing the resistance of remaining trees. It is very hard to predict the outcome of interspecific interactions due to invading beetle species or I. typographus establishing outside its current range, as they can be of varying sign and strength and may fluctuate depending on environmental factors and population phase. Most research indicates that beetle outbreaks will increase in frequency and magnitude as temperature, wind speed and

Geography, European colonization, and past population dynamics in Africa

OpenAIRE

Vaz Silva, Luis

2005-01-01

Past population dynamics in Africa have remained largely elusive due to the lack of demographic data. Researchers are understandably deterred from trying to explain what is not known and African historical population estimates suffer from this lack of interest. In this paper I explain present day African population densities using mostly ecological factors as explanatory variables. I find evidence supporting the view that ecological factors deeply affected precolonial patterns of human settle...

Nonlinear dynamics of interacting populations

CERN Document Server

Bazykin, Alexander D

1998-01-01

This book contains a systematic study of ecological communities of two or three interacting populations. Starting from the Lotka-Volterra system, various regulating factors are considered, such as rates of birth and death, predation and competition. The different factors can have a stabilizing or a destabilizing effect on the community, and their interplay leads to increasingly complicated behavior. Studying and understanding this path to greater dynamical complexity of ecological systems constitutes the backbone of this book. On the mathematical side, the tool of choice is the qualitative the

Genetic and environmental control of seasonal carbohydrate dynamics in trees of diverse Pinus sylvestris populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Oleksyn, J.; Zytkowiak, R.; Karolewski, P.; Reich, P. B.; Tjoelker, M. G.

2000-06-01

We explored environmental and genetic factors affecting seasonal dynamics of starch and soluble nonstructural carbohydrates in needle and twig cohorts and roots of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) trees of six populations originating between 49 degrees and 60 degrees N, and grown under common garden conditions in western Poland. Trees of each population were sampled once or twice per month over a 3-year period from age 15 to 17 years. Based on similarity in starch concentration patterns in needles, two distinct groups of populations were identified; one comprised northern populations from Sweden and Russia (59-60 degrees N), and another comprised central European populations from Latvia, Poland, Germany and France (49-56 degrees N). Needle starch concentrations of northern populations started to decline in late spring and reached minimum values earlier than those of central populations. For all populations, starch accumulation in spring started when minimum air temperature permanently exceeded 0 degrees C. Starch accumulation peaked before bud break and was highest in 1-year-old needles, averaging 9-13% of dry mass. Soluble carbohydrate concentrations were lowest in spring and summer and highest in autumn and winter. There were no differences among populations in seasonal pattern of soluble carbohydrate concentrations. Averaged across all populations, needle soluble carbohydrate concentrations increased from about 4% of needle dry mass in developing current-year needles, to about 9% in 1- and 2-year-old needles. Root carbohydrate concentration exhibited a bimodal pattern with peaks in spring and autumn. Northern populations had higher concentrations of fine-root starch in spring and autumn than central populations. Late-summer carbohydrate accumulation in roots started only after depletion of starch in needles and woody shoots. We conclude that Scots pine carbohydrate dynamics depend partially on inherited properties that are probably related to phenology of root

Stochastic population dynamics in spatially extended predator-prey systems

Science.gov (United States)

Dobramysl, Ulrich; Mobilia, Mauro; Pleimling, Michel; Täuber, Uwe C.

2018-02-01

Spatially extended population dynamics models that incorporate demographic noise serve as case studies for the crucial role of fluctuations and correlations in biological systems. Numerical and analytic tools from non-equilibrium statistical physics capture the stochastic kinetics of these complex interacting many-particle systems beyond rate equation approximations. Including spatial structure and stochastic noise in models for predator-prey competition invalidates the neutral Lotka-Volterra population cycles. Stochastic models yield long-lived erratic oscillations stemming from a resonant amplification mechanism. Spatially extended predator-prey systems display noise-stabilized activity fronts that generate persistent correlations. Fluctuation-induced renormalizations of the oscillation parameters can be analyzed perturbatively via a Doi-Peliti field theory mapping of the master equation; related tools allow detailed characterization of extinction pathways. The critical steady-state and non-equilibrium relaxation dynamics at the predator extinction threshold are governed by the directed percolation universality class. Spatial predation rate variability results in more localized clusters, enhancing both competing species’ population densities. Affixing variable interaction rates to individual particles and allowing for trait inheritance subject to mutations induces fast evolutionary dynamics for the rate distributions. Stochastic spatial variants of three-species competition with ‘rock-paper-scissors’ interactions metaphorically describe cyclic dominance. These models illustrate intimate connections between population dynamics and evolutionary game theory, underscore the role of fluctuations to drive populations toward extinction, and demonstrate how space can support species diversity. Two-dimensional cyclic three-species May-Leonard models are characterized by the emergence of spiraling patterns whose properties are elucidated by a mapping onto a complex

An Empirical Study of AI Population Dynamics with Million-agent Reinforcement Learning

OpenAIRE

Yang, Yaodong; Yu, Lantao; Bai, Yiwei; Wang, Jun; Zhang, Weinan; Wen, Ying; Yu, Yong

2017-01-01

In this paper, we conduct an empirical study on discovering the ordered collective dynamics obtained by a population of artificial intelligence (AI) agents. Our intention is to put AI agents into a simulated natural context, and then to understand their induced dynamics at the population level. In particular, we aim to verify if the principles developed in the real world could also be used in understanding an artificially-created intelligent population. To achieve this, we simulate a large-sc...

The demographic drivers of local population dynamics in two rare migratory birds.

Science.gov (United States)

Schaub, Michael; Reichlin, Thomas S; Abadi, Fitsum; Kéry, Marc; Jenni, Lukas; Arlettaz, Raphaël

2012-01-01

The exchange of individuals among populations can have strong effects on the dynamics and persistence of a given population. Yet, estimation of immigration rates remains one of the greatest challenges for animal demographers. Little empirical knowledge exists about the effects of immigration on population dynamics. New integrated population models fitted using Bayesian methods enable simultaneous estimation of fecundity, survival and immigration, as well as the growth rate of a population of interest. We applied this novel analytical framework to the demography of two populations of long-distance migratory birds, hoopoe Upupa epops and wryneck Jynx torquilla, in a study area in south-western Switzerland. During 2002-2010, the hoopoe population increased annually by 11%, while the wryneck population remained fairly stable. Apparent juvenile and adult survival probability was nearly identical in both species, but fecundity and immigration were slightly higher in the hoopoe. Hoopoe population growth rate was strongly correlated with juvenile survival, fecundity and immigration, while that of wrynecks strongly correlated only with immigration. This indicates that demographic components impacting the arrival of new individuals into the populations were more important for their dynamics than demographic components affecting the loss of individuals. The finding that immigration plays a crucial role in the population growth rates of these two rare species emphasizes the need for a broad rather than local perspective for population studies, and the development of wide-scale conservation actions.

Causes and consequences of complex population dynamics in an annual plant, Cardamine pensylvanica

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Crone, E.E.

1995-11-08

The relative importance of density-dependent and density-independent factors in determining the population dynamics of plants has been widely debated with little resolution. In this thesis, the author explores the effects of density-dependent population regulation on population dynamics in Cardamine pensylvanica, an annual plant. In the first chapter, she shows that experimental populations of C. pensylvanica cycled from high to low density in controlled constant-environment conditions. These cycles could not be explained by external environmental changes or simple models of direct density dependence (N{sub t+1} = f[N{sub t}]), but they could be explained by delayed density dependence (N{sub t+1} = f[N{sub t}, N{sub t+1}]). In the second chapter, she shows that the difference in the stability properties of population growth models with and without delayed density dependence is due to the presence of Hopf as well as slip bifurcations from stable to chaotic population dynamics. She also measures delayed density dependence due to effects of parental density on offspring quality in C. pensylvanica and shows that this is large enough to be the cause of the population dynamics observed in C. pensylvanica. In the third chapter, the author extends her analyses of density-dependent population growth models to include interactions between competing species. In the final chapter, she compares the effects of fixed spatial environmental variation and variation in population size on the evolutionary response of C. pensylvanica populations.

The Effects of Predator Evolution and Genetic Variation on Predator-Prey Population-Level Dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

Cortez, Michael H; Patel, Swati

2017-07-01

This paper explores how predator evolution and the magnitude of predator genetic variation alter the population-level dynamics of predator-prey systems. We do this by analyzing a general eco-evolutionary predator-prey model using four methods: Method 1 identifies how eco-evolutionary feedbacks alter system stability in the fast and slow evolution limits; Method 2 identifies how the amount of standing predator genetic variation alters system stability; Method 3 identifies how the phase lags in predator-prey cycles depend on the amount of genetic variation; and Method 4 determines conditions for different cycle shapes in the fast and slow evolution limits using geometric singular perturbation theory. With these four methods, we identify the conditions under which predator evolution alters system stability and shapes of predator-prey cycles, and how those effect depend on the amount of genetic variation in the predator population. We discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each method and the relations between the four methods. This work shows how the four methods can be used in tandem to make general predictions about eco-evolutionary dynamics and feedbacks.

Nonequilibrium population dynamics of phenotype conversion of cancer cells.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joseph Xu Zhou

Full Text Available Tumorigenesis is a dynamic biological process that involves distinct cancer cell subpopulations proliferating at different rates and interconverting between them. In this paper we proposed a mathematical framework of population dynamics that considers both distinctive growth rates and intercellular transitions between cancer cell populations. Our mathematical framework showed that both growth and transition influence the ratio of cancer cell subpopulations but the latter is more significant. We derived the condition that different cancer cell types can maintain distinctive subpopulations and we also explain why there always exists a stable fixed ratio after cell sorting based on putative surface markers. The cell fraction ratio can be shifted by changing either the growth rates of the subpopulations (Darwinism selection or by environment-instructed transitions (Lamarckism induction. This insight can help us to understand the dynamics of the heterogeneity of cancer cells and lead us to new strategies to overcome cancer drug resistance.

Linking individual phenotype to density-dependent population growth: the influence of body size on the population dynamics of malaria vectors

Science.gov (United States)

Russell, Tanya L.; Lwetoijera, Dickson W.; Knols, Bart G. J.; Takken, Willem; Killeen, Gerry F.; Ferguson, Heather M.

2011-01-01

Understanding the endogenous factors that drive the population dynamics of malaria mosquitoes will facilitate more accurate predictions about vector control effectiveness and our ability to destabilize the growth of either low- or high-density insect populations. We assessed whether variation in phenotypic traits predict the dynamics of Anopheles gambiae sensu lato mosquitoes, the most important vectors of human malaria. Anopheles gambiae dynamics were monitored over a six-month period of seasonal growth and decline. The population exhibited density-dependent feedback, with the carrying capacity being modified by rainfall (97% wAICc support). The individual phenotypic expression of the maternal (p = 0.0001) and current (p = 0.040) body size positively influenced population growth. Our field-based evidence uniquely demonstrates that individual fitness can have population-level impacts and, furthermore, can mitigate the impact of exogenous drivers (e.g. rainfall) in species whose reproduction depends upon it. Once frontline interventions have suppressed mosquito densities, attempts to eliminate malaria with supplementary vector control tools may be attenuated by increased population growth and individual fitness. PMID:21389034

Population dynamics of light-limited phytoplankton : Microcosm experiments

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Huisman, Jef

This paper investigates the extent to which the predictions of an elementary model for light-limited growth are matched by laboratory experiments with light-limited phytoplankton. The model and experiments link the population dynamics of phytoplankton species with changes in the light gradient

Direct characterization of chaotic and stochastic dynamics in a population model with strong periodicity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tung Wenwen; Qi Yan; Gao, J.B.; Cao Yinhe; Billings, Lora

2005-01-01

In recent years it has been increasingly recognized that noise and determinism may have comparable but different influences on population dynamics. However, no simple analysis methods have been introduced into ecology which can readily characterize those impacts. In this paper, we study a population model with strong periodicity and both with and without noise. The noise-free model generates both quasi-periodic and chaotic dynamics for certain parameter values. Due to the strong periodicity, however, the generated chaotic dynamics have not been satisfactorily described. The dynamics becomes even more complicated when there is noise. Characterizing the chaotic and stochastic dynamics in this model thus represents a challenging problem. Here we show how the chaotic dynamics can be readily characterized by the direct dynamical test for deterministic chaos developed by [Gao JB, Zheng ZM. Europhys. Lett. 1994;25:485] and how the influence of noise on quasi-periodic motions can be characterized as asymmetric diffusions wandering along the quasi-periodic orbit. It is hoped that the introduced methods will be useful in studying other population models as well as population time series obtained both in field and laboratory experiments

Efficient characterisation of large deviations using population dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Brewer, Tobias; Clark, Stephen R.; Bradford, Russell; Jack, Robert L.

2018-05-01

We consider population dynamics as implemented by the cloning algorithm for analysis of large deviations of time-averaged quantities. We use the simple symmetric exclusion process with periodic boundary conditions as a prototypical example and investigate the convergence of the results with respect to the algorithmic parameters, focussing on the dynamical phase transition between homogeneous and inhomogeneous states, where convergence is relatively difficult to achieve. We discuss how the performance of the algorithm can be optimised, and how it can be efficiently exploited on parallel computing platforms.

Ruffed grouse population dynamics in the central and southern Appalachians

Science.gov (United States)

John M. Giuliano Tirpak; C. Allan Miller; Thomas J. Allen; Steve Bittner; David A. Buehler; John W. Edwards; Craig A. Harper; William K. Igo; Gary W. Norman; M. Seamster; Dean F. Stauffer

2006-01-01

Ruffed grouse (Bonasa urnbellus; hereafter grouse) populations in the central and southern Appalachians are in decline. However, limited information on the dynamics of these populations prevents the development of effective management strategies to reverse these trends. We used radiotelemetry data collected on grouse to parameterize 6 models of...

Dynamical evolution of a fictitious population of binary Neptune Trojans

Science.gov (United States)

Brunini, Adrián

2018-03-01

We present numerical simulations of the evolution of a synthetic population of Binary Neptune Trojans, under the influence of the solar perturbations and tidal friction (the so-called Kozai cycles and tidal friction evolution). Our model includes the dynamical influence of the four giant planets on the heliocentric orbit of the binary centre of mass. In this paper, we explore the evolution of initially tight binaries around the Neptune L4 Lagrange point. We found that the variation of the heliocentric orbital elements due to the libration around the Lagrange point introduces significant changes in the orbital evolution of the binaries. Collisional processes would not play a significant role in the dynamical evolution of Neptune Trojans. After 4.5 × 109 yr of evolution, ˜50 per cent of the synthetic systems end up separated as single objects, most of them with slow diurnal rotation rate. The final orbital distribution of the surviving binary systems is statistically similar to the one found for Kuiper Belt Binaries when collisional evolution is not included in the model. Systems composed by a primary and a small satellite are more fragile than the ones composed by components of similar sizes.

Population dynamics of potato cyst nematodes and associated damage to potato

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schans, J.

1993-01-01

Population dynamics of potato cyst nematodes (PCN; Globoderarostochiensis (Woll.) Skarbilovich and G. pallida Stone) and their interactions with potato plants are insufficiently understood to explain variations of population

Population dynamics of bowfin in a south Georgia reservoir: latitudinal comparisons of population structure, growth, and mortality

Science.gov (United States)

Porter, Nicholas J.; Bonvechio, Timothy F.; McCormick, Joshua L.; Quist, Michael

2014-01-01

The objectives of this study were to evaluate the population dynamics of bowfin (Amia calva) in Lake Lindsay Grace, Georgia, and to compare those dynamics to other bowfin populations. Relative abundance of bowfin sampled in 2010 in Lake Lindsay Grace was low and variable (mean±SD; 2.7±4.7 fish per hour of electrofishing). Total length (TL) of bowfin collected in Lake Lindsay Grace varied from 233–683 mm. Age of bowfin in Lake Lindsay Grace varied from 0–5 yr. Total annual mortality (A) was estimated at 68%. Both sexes appeared to be fully mature by age 2 with gonadosomatic index values above 8 for females and close to 1 for males. The majority of females were older, longer, and heavier than males. Bowfin in Lake Lindsay Grace had fast growth up to age 4 and higher total annual mortality than the other populations examined in this study. A chi-square test indicated that size structure of bowfin from Lake Lindsay Grace was different than those of a Louisiana population and two bowfin populations from the upper Mississippi River. To further assess bowfin size structure, we proposed standard length (i.e., TL) categories: stock (200 mm, 8 inches), quality (350 mm, 14 inches), preferred (460 mm, 18 inches), memorable (560 mm, 22, inches), and trophy (710 mm, 28 inches). Because our knowledge of bowfin ecology is limited, additional understanding of bowfin population dynamics provides important insight that can be used in management of bowfin across their distribution.

Impact of forestry practices at a landscape scale on the dynamics of amphibian populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Harper, Elizabeth B; Patrick, David A; Gibbs, James P

2015-12-01

Forest loss is a primary cause of worldwide amphibian decline. Timber harvesting in the United States has caused dramatic changes in quality and extent of forest ecosystems, and intensive forest management still occurs. Although numerous studies have documented substantial reductions in amphibian densities related to timber harvest, subsequent extinctions are rare. To better understand the population dynamics that have allowed so many amphibian species to persist in the face of widespread forest disturbance, we developed spatially explicit metapopulation models for four forest-dependent amphibian species (Lithobates sylvaticus, Ambystoma opacum, A. talpoideum, and A. maculatum) that incorporated demographic and habitat selection data derived from experiments conducted as part of the Land Use Effects on Amphibian Populations Project (LEAP). We projected local and landscape-scale population persistence under 108 different forestry practice scenarios, varying treatment (partial cut, clear-cut with coarse woody debris [CWD] removed, and clearcut with CWD retained), cut patch size (1, 10, or 50 ha), total area cut (10, 20, or 30%), and initial amphibian population size (5, 50, or 500 adult females per local breeding population). Under these scenarios, landscape-scale extinction was highly unlikely, occurring in amphibian populations in the United States should focus not on questions of landscape-scale extinction but on the ecological consequences of dramatic reductions in amphibian biomass, including changes in trophic interactions, nutrient cycling, and energy transfer. Additionally, we conclude that amphibian declines and extinctions are far more likely to occur as a result of permanent habitat loss resulting from development than from the temporary degradation of habitat caused by current forestry practices.

Boom or bust? A comparative analysis of transient population dynamics in plants

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stott, Iain; Franco, Miguel; Carslake, David

2010-01-01

researchers as further possible effectors of complicated dynamics. Previously published methods of transient analysis have tended to require knowledge of initial population structure. However, this has been overcome by the recent development of the parametric Kreiss bound (which describes how large...... a population must become before reaching its maximum possible transient amplification following a disturbance) and the extension of this and other transient indices to simultaneously describe both amplified and attenuated transient dynamics. We apply the Kreiss bound and other transient indices to a data base...... worrying artefact of basic model parameterization. Synthesis. Transient indices describe how big or how small plant populations can get, en route to long-term stable rates of increase or decline. The patterns we found in the potential for transient dynamics, across many species of plants, suggest...

Word class and context affect alpha-band oscillatory dynamics in an older population

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Monika eMellem

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Differences in the oscillatory EEG dynamics of reading open class and closed class words have previously been found (Bastiaansen et al., 2005 and are thought to reflect differences in lexical-semantic content between these word classes. In particular, the theta band (4–7 Hz seems to play a prominent role in lexical-semantic retrieval. We tested whether this theta effect is robust in an older population of subjects. Additionally, we examined how the context of a word can modulate the oscillatory dynamics underlying retrieval for the two different classes of words. Older participants (mean age 55 read words presented in either syntactically-correct sentences or in a scrambled order (scrambled sentence while their EEG was recorded. We performed time-frequency analysis to examine how power varied based on the context or class of the word. We observed larger power decreases in the alpha (8–12Hz band between 200–700 ms for the open class compared to closed class words, but this was true only for the scrambled sentence context. We did not observe differences in theta power between these conditions. Context exerted an effect on the alpha and low beta (13–18 Hz bands between 0–700 ms. These results suggest that the previously observed word class effects on theta power changes in a younger participant sample do not seem to be a robust effect in this older population. Though this is an indirect comparison between studies, it may suggest the existence of aging effects on word retrieval dynamics for different populations. Additionally, the interaction between word class and context suggests that word retrieval mechanisms interact with sentence-level comprehension mechanisms in the alpha band.

Metastable states and quasicycles in a stochastic Wilson-Cowan model of neuronal population dynamics

KAUST Repository

Bressloff, Paul C.

2010-01-01

We analyze a stochastic model of neuronal population dynamics with intrinsic noise. In the thermodynamic limit N→∞, where N determines the size of each population, the dynamics is described by deterministic Wilson-Cowan equations. On the other hand

Biology as population dynamics: heuristics for transmission risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Keebler, Daniel; Walwyn, David; Welte, Alex

2013-02-01

Population-type models, accounting for phenomena such as population lifetimes, mixing patterns, recruitment patterns, genetic evolution and environmental conditions, can be usefully applied to the biology of HIV infection and viral replication. A simple dynamic model can explore the effect of a vaccine-like stimulus on the mortality and infectiousness, which formally looks like fertility, of invading virions; the mortality of freshly infected cells; and the availability of target cells, all of which impact on the probability of infection. Variations on this model could capture the importance of the timing and duration of different key events in viral transmission, and hence be applied to questions of mucosal immunology. The dynamical insights and assumptions of such models are compatible with the continuum of between- and within-individual risks in sexual violence and may be helpful in making sense of the sparse data available on the association between HIV transmission and sexual violence. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Use of Mobile Device Data To Better Estimate Dynamic Population Size for Wastewater-Based Epidemiology.

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas, Kevin V; Amador, Arturo; Baz-Lomba, Jose Antonio; Reid, Malcolm

2017-10-03

Wastewater-based epidemiology is an established approach for quantifying community drug use and has recently been applied to estimate population exposure to contaminants such as pesticides and phthalate plasticizers. A major source of uncertainty in the population weighted biomarker loads generated is related to estimating the number of people present in a sewer catchment at the time of sample collection. Here, the population quantified from mobile device-based population activity patterns was used to provide dynamic population normalized loads of illicit drugs and pharmaceuticals during a known period of high net fluctuation in the catchment population. Mobile device-based population activity patterns have for the first time quantified the high degree of intraday, week, and month variability within a specific sewer catchment. Dynamic population normalization showed that per capita pharmaceutical use remained unchanged during the period when static normalization would have indicated an average reduction of up to 31%. Per capita illicit drug use increased significantly during the monitoring period, an observation that was only possible to measure using dynamic population normalization. The study quantitatively confirms previous assessments that population estimates can account for uncertainties of up to 55% in static normalized data. Mobile device-based population activity patterns allow for dynamic normalization that yields much improved temporal and spatial trend analysis.

Interacting trophic forcing and the population dynamics of herring

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lindegren, Martin; Ostman, Orjan; Gardmark, Anna

2011-01-01

-up nor top-down, but rather through multiple external and internal drivers. While in many studies single drivers have been identified, potential synergies of multiple factors, as well as their relative importance in regulating population dynamics of small pelagic fish, is a largely unresolved issue....... Using a statistical, age-structured modeling approach, we demonstrate the relative importance and influence of bottom-up (e.g., climate, zooplankton availability) and top-down (i.e., fishing and predation) factors on the population dynamics of Bothnian Sea herring (Clupea harengus) throughout its life...... cycle. Our results indicate significant bottom-up effects of zooplankton and interspecific competition from sprat (Sprattus sprattus), particularly on younger age classes of herring. Although top-down forcing through fishing and predation by grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) and Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua...

Dynamic of population-dynamics in a medically important snail species Lymnaea (Radix Luteola (Lamarck

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. K. Misra

1993-09-01

Full Text Available The life-cycle parameters of the snail Lymnaea (Radix luteola and the factors influencing the same have been studied under laboratory conditions. Ins each month, from July 1990 to June 1991, a batch of 100 zero-day old individual were considered for studies. The snails of April batch survived for 19.42 days while those in December batch survived for 87.45 days. The May batch individual though survived for 65.67 days gained maximum shell size (15.84 mm in length and body weight (419.87 mg. All individuals of April batch died prior to attainment of sexual maturity. In the remaining 11 batches the snails became sexually mature between 32 and 53 days. At this stage, they were with varying shell lengths, 9.3 mm to 13,11 mm in respect to batches. The reproduction period varied from 1-67 days. An individual laid, on an average, 0,25 (March batch to 443.67 (May batch eggs in its life-span. A batch of such snails would leave 24312, 22520, 720268, 80408, 76067, 418165, 214, 9202, 0, 0, 2459386 and 127894 individuals at the end of 352nd day. Since the environmental conditions were almost similar the 'dynamic' of population dynamics seems to be involved with the 'strain' of the snail individuals of the batches concerned.

Fitness decline under osmotic stress in Caenorhabditis elegans populations subjected to spontaneous mutation accumulation at varying population sizes.

Science.gov (United States)

Katju, Vaishali; Packard, Lucille B; Keightley, Peter D

2018-04-01

The consequences of mutations for population fitness depends on their individual selection coefficients and the effective population size. An earlier study of Caenorhabditis elegans spontaneous mutation accumulation lines evolved for 409 generations at three population sizes found that N e   = 1 populations declined significantly in fitness whereas the fitness of larger populations (N e   = 5, 50) was indistinguishable from the ancestral control under benign conditions. To test if larger MA populations harbor a load of cryptic deleterious mutations that are obscured under benign laboratory conditions, we measured fitness under osmotic stress via exposure to hypersaline conditions. The fitness of N e   = 1 lines exhibited a further decline under osmotic stress compared to benign conditions. However, the fitness of larger populations remained indistinguishable from that of the ancestral control. The average effects of deleterious mutations in N e   = 1 lines were estimated to be 22% for productivity and 14% for survivorship, exceeding values previously detected under benign conditions. Our results suggest that fitness decline is due to large effect mutations that are rapidly removed via selection even in small populations, with implications for conservation practices. Genetic stochasticity may not be as potent and immediate a threat to the persistence of small populations as other demographic and environmental stochastic factors. © 2018 The Author(s). Evolution © 2018 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Single Cell Dynamics Causes Pareto-Like Effect in Stimulated T Cell Populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Cosette, Jérémie; Moussy, Alice; Onodi, Fanny; Auffret-Cariou, Adrien; Neildez-Nguyen, Thi My Anh; Paldi, Andras; Stockholm, Daniel

2015-12-09

Cell fate choice during the process of differentiation may obey to deterministic or stochastic rules. In order to discriminate between these two strategies we used time-lapse microscopy of individual murine CD4 + T cells that allows investigating the dynamics of proliferation and fate commitment. We observed highly heterogeneous division and death rates between individual clones resulting in a Pareto-like dominance of a few clones at the end of the experiment. Commitment to the Treg fate was monitored using the expression of a GFP reporter gene under the control of the endogenous Foxp3 promoter. All possible combinations of proliferation and differentiation were observed and resulted in exclusively GFP-, GFP+ or mixed phenotype clones of very different population sizes. We simulated the process of proliferation and differentiation using a simple mathematical model of stochastic decision-making based on the experimentally observed parameters. The simulations show that a stochastic scenario is fully compatible with the observed Pareto-like imbalance in the final population.

Drivers of waterfowl population dynamics: from teal to swans

Science.gov (United States)

Koons, David N.; Gunnarsson, Gunnar; Schmutz, Joel A.; Rotella, Jay J.

2014-01-01

Waterfowl are among the best studied and most extensively monitored species in the world. Given their global importance for sport and subsistence hunting, viewing and ecosystem functioning, great effort has been devoted since the middle part of the 20th century to understanding both the environmental and demographic mechanisms that influence waterfowl population and community dynamics. Here we use comparative approaches to summarise and contrast our understanding ofwaterfowl population dynamics across species as short-lived as the teal Anas discors and A.crecca to those such as the swans Cygnus sp. which have long life-spans. Specifically, we focus on population responses to vital rate perturbations across life history strategies, discuss bottom-up and top-down responses of waterfowlpopulations to global change, and summarise our current understanding of density dependence across waterfowl species. We close by identifying research needs and highlight ways to overcome the challenges of sustainably managing waterfowl populations in the 21st century.

Optimal Portfolios Under Dynamic Shortfall Constraints

African Journals Online (AJOL)

industry standard with regulatory authorities enforcing its use in risk measure- ment and management. Despite its widespread acceptance, VaR is not coherent. Tail Conditional Expectation (TCE), on the other hand, for an underlying con- tinuous distribution, is a coherent risk measures. Our focus in this paper is the dynamic ...

A stochastic population model to evaluate Moapa dace (Moapa coriacea) population growth under alternative management scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Perry, Russell W.; Jones, Edward; Scoppettone, G. Gary

2015-07-14

The primary goal of this research project was to evaluate the response of Moapa dace (Moapa coriacea) to the potential effects of changes in the amount of available habitat due to human influences such as ground water pumping, barriers to movement, and extirpation of Moapa dace from the mainstem Muddy River. To understand how these factors affect Moapa dace populations and to provide a tool to guide recovery actions, we developed a stochastic model to simulate Moapa dace population dynamics. Specifically, we developed an individual based model (IBM) to incorporate the critical components that drive Moapa dace population dynamics. Our model is composed of several interlinked submodels that describe changes in Moapa dace habitat as translated into carrying capacity, the influence of carrying capacity on demographic rates of dace, and the consequent effect on equilibrium population sizes. The model is spatially explicit and represents the stream network as eight discrete stream segments. The model operates at a monthly time step to incorporate seasonally varying reproduction. Growth rates of individuals vary among stream segments, with growth rates increasing along a headwater to mainstem gradient. Movement and survival of individuals are driven by density-dependent relationships that are influenced by the carrying capacity of each stream segment.

The 'Natural Laboratory', a tool for deciphering growth, lifetime and population dynamics in larger benthic foraminifera

Science.gov (United States)

Hohenegger, Johann

2015-04-01

The shells of symbiont-bearing larger benthic Foraminifera (LBF) represent the response to physiological requirements in dependence of environmental conditions. All compartments of the shell such as chambers and chamberlets accommodate the growth of the cell protoplasm and are adaptations for housing photosymbiotic algae. Investigations on the biology of LBF were predominantly based on laboratory studies. The lifetime of LBF under natural conditions is still unclear. LBF, which can build >100 chambers during their lifetime, are thought to live at least one year under natural conditions. This is supported by studies on population dynamics of eulittoral foraminifera. In species characterized by a time-restricted single reproduction period the mean size of specimens increases from small to large during lifetime simultaneously reducing individual number. This becomes more complex when two or more reproduction times are present within a one-year cycle leading to a mixture of abundant small individuals with few large specimens during the year, while keeping mean size more or less constant. This mixture is typical for most sublittoral megalospheric (gamonts or schizonts) LBF. Nothing is known on the lifetime of agamonts, the diploid asexually reproducing generation. In all hyaline LBF it is thought to be significantly longer than 1 year based on the large size and considering the mean chamber building rate of the gamont/schizonts. Observations on LBF under natural conditions have not been performed yet in the deeper sublittoral. This reflects the difficulties due to intense hydrodynamics that hinder deploying technical equipment for studies in the natural environment. Therefore, studying growth, lifetime and reproduction of sublittoral LBF under natural conditions can be performed using the so-called 'natural laboratory' in comparison with laboratory investigations. The best sampling method in the upper sublittoral from 5 to 70 m depth is by SCUBA diving. Irregular

Cooperation guided by the coexistence of imitation dynamics and aspiration dynamics in structured populations

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Kuangyi; Li, Kun; Cong, Rui; Wang, Long

2017-02-01

In the framework of the evolutionary game theory, two fundamentally different mechanisms, the imitation process and the aspiration-driven dynamics, can be adopted by players to update their strategies. In the former case, individuals imitate the strategy of a more successful peer, while in the latter case individuals change their strategies based on a comparison of payoffs they collect in the game to their own aspiration levels. Here we explore how cooperation evolves for the coexistence of these two dynamics. Intriguingly, cooperation reaches its lowest level when a certain moderate fraction of individuals pick aspiration-level-driven rule while the others choose pairwise comparison rule. Furthermore, when individuals can adjust their update rules besides their strategies, either imitation dynamics or aspiration-driven dynamics will finally take over the entire population, and the stationary cooperation level is determined by the outcome of competition between these two dynamics. We find that appropriate synergetic effects and moderate aspiration level boost the fixation probability of aspiration-driven dynamics most effectively. Our work may be helpful in understanding the cooperative behavior induced by the coexistence of imitation dynamics and aspiration dynamics in the society.

Evolutionary Dynamics of Collective Action in Structured Populations

Science.gov (United States)

Santos, Marta Daniela de Almeida

The pervasiveness of cooperation in Nature is not easily explained. If evolution is characterized by competition and survival of the fittest, why should selfish individuals cooperate with each other? Evolutionary Game Theory (EGT) provides a suitable mathematical framework to study this problem, central to many areas of science. Conventionally, interactions between individuals are modeled in terms of one-shot, symmetric 2-Person Dilemmas of Cooperation, but many real-life situations involve decisions within groups with more than 2 individuals, which are best-dealt in the framework of N-Person games. In this Thesis, we investigate the evolutionary dynamics of two paradigmatic collective social dilemmas - the N-Person Prisoner's Dilemma (NPD) and the N-Person Snowdrift Game (NSG) on structured populations, modeled by networks with diverse topological properties. Cooperative strategies are just one example of the many traits that can be transmitted on social networks. Several recent studies based on empirical evidence from a medical database have suggested the existence of a 3 degrees of influence rule, according to which not only our "friends", but also our friends' friends, and our friends' friends' friends, have a non-trivial influence on our decisions. We investigate the degree of peer influence that emerges from the spread of cooperative strategies, opinions and diseases on populations with distinct underlying networks of contacts. Our results show that networks naturally entangle individuals into interactions of many-body nature and that for each network class considered different processes lead to identical degrees of influence. None

Missing cycles: Effect of climate change on population dynamics

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

population dynamics of the larch budmoth – an insect pest which causes massive defoliation of entire larch forests ... hypothesized that global warming has led to the collapse of the cycles ... When temperatures increase after winter, and the.

Population dynamics of Aphis gossypii Glover and in sole and intercropping systems of cotton and cowpea.

Science.gov (United States)

Fernandes, Francisco S; Godoy, Wesley A C; Ramalho, Francisco S; Garcia, Adriano G; Santos, Bárbara D B; Malaquias, José B

2018-01-01

Population dynamics of aphids have been studied in sole and intercropping systems. These studies have required the use of more precise analytical tools in order to better understand patterns in quantitative data. Mathematical models are among the most important tools to explain the dynamics of insect populations. This study investigated the population dynamics of aphids Aphis gossypii and Aphis craccivora over time, using mathematical models composed of a set of differential equations as a helpful analytical tool to understand the population dynamics of aphids in arrangements of cotton and cowpea. The treatments were sole cotton, sole cowpea, and three arrangements of cotton intercropped with cowpea (t1, t2 and t3). The plants were infested with two aphid species and were evaluated at 7, 14, 28, 35, 42, and 49 days after the infestations. Mathematical models were used to fit the population dynamics of two aphid species. There were good fits for aphid dynamics by mathematical model over time. The highest population peak of both species A. gossypii and A. craccivora was found in the sole crops, and the lowest population peak was found in crop system t2. These results are important for integrated management programs of aphids in cotton and cowpea.

Modeling evolutionary games in populations with demographic structure

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Li, Xiang-Yi; Giaimo, Stefano; Baudisch, Annette

2015-01-01

interactions, but usually omits life history and the demographic structure of the population. Here we show how an integration of both aspects can substantially alter the underlying evolutionary dynamics. We study the replicator dynamics of strategy interactions in life stage structured populations. Individuals...

The population and evolutionary dynamics of homologous gene recombination in bacterial populations.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bruce R Levin

2009-08-01

Full Text Available In bacteria, recombination is a rare event, not a part of the reproductive process. Nevertheless, recombination -- broadly defined to include the acquisition of genes from external sources, i.e., horizontal gene transfer (HGT -- plays a central role as a source of variation for adaptive evolution in many species of bacteria. Much of niche expansion, resistance to antibiotics and other environmental stresses, virulence, and other characteristics that make bacteria interesting and problematic, is achieved through the expression of genes and genetic elements obtained from other populations of bacteria of the same and different species, as well as from eukaryotes and archaea. While recombination of homologous genes among members of the same species has played a central role in the development of the genetics and molecular biology of bacteria, the contribution of homologous gene recombination (HGR to bacterial evolution is not at all clear. Also, not so clear are the selective pressures responsible for the evolution and maintenance of transformation, the only bacteria-encoded form of HGR. Using a semi-stochastic simulation of mutation, recombination, and selection within bacterial populations and competition between populations, we explore (1 the contribution of HGR to the rate of adaptive evolution in these populations and (2 the conditions under which HGR will provide a bacterial population a selective advantage over non-recombining or more slowly recombining populations. The results of our simulation indicate that, under broad conditions: (1 HGR occurring at rates in the range anticipated for bacteria like Streptococcus pneumoniae, Escherichia coli, Haemophilus influenzae, and Bacillus subtilis will accelerate the rate at which a population adapts to environmental conditions; (2 once established in a population, selection for this capacity to increase rates of adaptive evolution can maintain bacteria-encoded mechanisms of recombination and prevent

Population Dynamics and Temperature-Dependent Development of Chrysomphalus aonidum (L.) to Aid Sustainable Pest Management Decisions.

Science.gov (United States)

Campolo, O; Malacrinò, A; Laudani, F; Maione, V; Zappalà, L; Palmeri, V

2014-10-01

The increasing worldwide trades progressively led to decreased impact of natural barriers on wild species movement. The exotic scale Chrysomphalus aonidum (L.) (Hemiptera: Diaspididae), recently reported on citrus in southern Italy, may represent a new threat to Mediterranean citriculture. We studied C. aonidum population dynamics under field conditions and documented its development under various temperatures. To enable describing temperature-dependent development through the use of linear and non-linear models, low temperature thresholds and thermal constants for each developmental stage were estimated. Chrysomphalus aonidum was able to perform four generations on green parts (leaves, sprouts) of citrus trees and three on fruits. In addition, an overall higher population density was observed on samples collected in the southern part of the tree canopy. Temperature had a significant effect on the developmental rate; female needed 625 degree days (DD) to complete its development, while male needed 833 DD. The low threshold temperatures, together with data from population dynamics, demonstrated that C. aonidum is able to overwinter as second instar and as an adult. The results obtained, validated by those collected in the field, revealed few differences between predicted and observed dates of first occurrence of each C. aonidum instar in citrus orchards. Data on C. aonidum phenology and the definition of the thermal parameters (lower and upper threshold temperatures, optimum temperature, and the thermal constant) by non-linear models could allow the estimation of the occurrence in the field of each life stage and would be helpful in developing effective integrated control strategies.

A probabilistic cellular automata model for the dynamics of a population driven by logistic growth and weak Allee effect

Science.gov (United States)

Mendonça, J. R. G.

2018-04-01

We propose and investigate a one-parameter probabilistic mixture of one-dimensional elementary cellular automata under the guise of a model for the dynamics of a single-species unstructured population with nonoverlapping generations in which individuals have smaller probability of reproducing and surviving in a crowded neighbourhood but also suffer from isolation and dispersal. Remarkably, the first-order mean field approximation to the dynamics of the model yields a cubic map containing terms representing both logistic and weak Allee effects. The model has a single absorbing state devoid of individuals, but depending on the reproduction and survival probabilities can achieve a stable population. We determine the critical probability separating these two phases and find that the phase transition between them is in the directed percolation universality class of critical behaviour.

Emergent Patterns of Diversity and Dynamics in Natural Populations of Planktonic Vibrio Bacteria

Science.gov (United States)

2005-06-01

1973. Ecology of Vibrio parahemolyticus in mixed-template amplifications: formation, consequences and elimination by Chesapeake Bay. J. Bacteriol. 113...Science 1930 and Engineering DOCTORAL DISSERTATION Emergent Patterns of Diversity and Dynamics in Natural Populations of Planktonic Vibrio Bacteria by...DYNAMICS IN NATURAL POPULATIONS OF PLANKTONIC VIBRIO BACTERIA by Janelle Ren6e Thompson B.S. Biological Sciences, Stanford University 1998 M.S

Vigorous dynamics underlie a stable population of the endangered snow leopard Panthera uncia in Tost Mountains, South Gobi, Mongolia.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Koustubh Sharma

Full Text Available Population monitoring programmes and estimation of vital rates are key to understanding the mechanisms of population growth, decline or stability, and are important for effective conservation action. We report, for the first time, the population trends and vital rates of the endangered snow leopard based on camera trapping over four years in the Tost Mountains, South Gobi, Mongolia. We used robust design multi-season mark-recapture analysis to estimate the trends in abundance, sex ratio, survival probability and the probability of temporary emigration and immigration for adult and young snow leopards. The snow leopard population remained constant over most of the study period, with no apparent growth (λ = 1.08+-0.25. Comparison of model results with the "known population" of radio-collared snow leopards suggested high accuracy in our estimates. Although seemingly stable, vigorous underlying dynamics were evident in this population, with the adult sex ratio shifting from being male-biased to female-biased (1.67 to 0.38 males per female during the study. Adult survival probability was 0.82 (SE+-0.08 and that of young was 0.83 (SE+-0.15 and 0.77 (SE +-0.2 respectively, before and after the age of 2 years. Young snow leopards showed a high probability of temporary emigration and immigration (0.6, SE +-0.19 and 0.68, SE +-0.32 before and after the age of 2 years though not the adults (0.02 SE+-0.07. While the current female-bias in the population and the number of cubs born each year seemingly render the study population safe, the vigorous dynamics suggests that the situation can change quickly. The reduction in the proportion of male snow leopards may be indicative of continuing anthropogenic pressures. Our work reiterates the importance of monitoring both the abundance and population dynamics of species for effective conservation.

Gas Bubble Dynamics under Mechanical Vibrations

Science.gov (United States)

Mohagheghian, Shahrouz; Elbing, Brian

2017-11-01

The scientific community has a limited understanding of the bubble dynamics under mechanical oscillations due to over simplification of Navier-Stockes equation by neglecting the shear stress tensor and not accounting for body forces when calculating the acoustic radiation force. The current work experimental investigates bubble dynamics under mechanical vibration and resulting acoustic field by measuring the bubble size and velocity using high-speed imaging. The experimental setup consists of a custom-designed shaker table, cast acrylic bubble column, compressed air injection manifold and an optical imaging system. The mechanical vibrations resulted in accelerations between 0.25 to 10 times gravitational acceleration corresponding to frequency and amplitude range of 8 - 22Hz and 1 - 10mm respectively. Throughout testing the void fraction was limited to <5%. The bubble size is larger than resonance size and smaller than acoustic wavelength. The amplitude of acoustic pressure wave was estimated using the definition of Bjerknes force in combination with Rayleigh-Plesset equation. Physical behavior of the system was capture and classified. Bubble size, velocity as well as size and spatial distribution will be presented.

Climate effects and feedback structure determining weed population dynamics in a long-term experiment.

Science.gov (United States)

Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis

2012-01-01

Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements.

Climate Effects and Feedback Structure Determining Weed Population Dynamics in a Long-Term Experiment

Science.gov (United States)

Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis

2012-01-01

Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements. PMID:22272362

Climate effects and feedback structure determining weed population dynamics in a long-term experiment.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mauricio Lima

Full Text Available Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors. Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements.

Modelling of population dynamics of red king crab using Bayesian approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bakanev Sergey ...

2012-10-01

Modeling population dynamics based on the Bayesian approach enables to successfully resolve the above issues. The integration of the data from various studies into a unified model based on Bayesian parameter estimation method provides a much more detailed description of the processes occurring in the population.

Collective dynamics of populations of weakly correlated filaments of incoherent white light

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guo, Jinxin; Sheridan, John T; Saravanamuttu, Kalaichelvi

2013-01-01

We examined the dynamics of two populations of self-trapped filaments of spatially and temporally incoherent white light. The populations consisted of (i) independent filaments generated through self-trapping of incandescent speckles, and (ii) co-dependent filaments created through modulation instability of a broad incandescent beam. Both filament populations were positionally stable in conditions where individual pairs of self-trapped beams interact strongly. Both also acquired significantly broad intensity distributions, which were independent of their parent optical fields; a small but persistent number of high-intensity filaments was identified in both cases. These studies provide accessible routes to weakly correlated ensembles, insight into their collective behaviour such as self-stabilization and self-selected intensity distributions, and reveal intriguing similarities between the dynamics of two populations of different origins. (paper)

Combining a weed traits database with a population dynamics model predicts shifts in weed communities.

Science.gov (United States)

Storkey, J; Holst, N; Bøjer, O Q; Bigongiali, F; Bocci, G; Colbach, N; Dorner, Z; Riemens, M M; Sartorato, I; Sønderskov, M; Verschwele, A

2015-04-01

A functional approach to predicting shifts in weed floras in response to management or environmental change requires the combination of data on weed traits with analytical frameworks that capture the filtering effect of selection pressures on traits. A weed traits database (WTDB) was designed, populated and analysed, initially using data for 19 common European weeds, to begin to consolidate trait data in a single repository. The initial choice of traits was driven by the requirements of empirical models of weed population dynamics to identify correlations between traits and model parameters. These relationships were used to build a generic model, operating at the level of functional traits, to simulate the impact of increasing herbicide and fertiliser use on virtual weeds along gradients of seed weight and maximum height. The model generated 'fitness contours' (defined as population growth rates) within this trait space in different scenarios, onto which two sets of weed species, defined as common or declining in the UK, were mapped. The effect of increasing inputs on the weed flora was successfully simulated; 77% of common species were predicted to have stable or increasing populations under high fertiliser and herbicide use, in contrast with only 29% of the species that have declined. Future development of the WTDB will aim to increase the number of species covered, incorporate a wider range of traits and analyse intraspecific variability under contrasting management and environments.

Metastable states and quasicycles in a stochastic Wilson-Cowan model of neuronal population dynamics

KAUST Repository

Bressloff, Paul C.

2010-11-03

We analyze a stochastic model of neuronal population dynamics with intrinsic noise. In the thermodynamic limit N→∞, where N determines the size of each population, the dynamics is described by deterministic Wilson-Cowan equations. On the other hand, for finite N the dynamics is described by a master equation that determines the probability of spiking activity within each population. We first consider a single excitatory population that exhibits bistability in the deterministic limit. The steady-state probability distribution of the stochastic network has maxima at points corresponding to the stable fixed points of the deterministic network; the relative weighting of the two maxima depends on the system size. For large but finite N, we calculate the exponentially small rate of noise-induced transitions between the resulting metastable states using a Wentzel-Kramers- Brillouin (WKB) approximation and matched asymptotic expansions. We then consider a two-population excitatory or inhibitory network that supports limit cycle oscillations. Using a diffusion approximation, we reduce the dynamics to a neural Langevin equation, and show how the intrinsic noise amplifies subthreshold oscillations (quasicycles). © 2010 The American Physical Society.

Coherent population dynamics of a three-level atom in spacetime

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Netz, R.; Sauerbrey, R.; Feurer, T.; Roberts, G.

2002-01-01

This work explores temporal and spatial aspects of coherent population transfer in a three-level atom through a synergic combination of experimental measurements and theoretical calculations. Experimental measurements exploit the broad bandwidth of a femtosecond laser pulse to initiate simultaneous excitation of the 5p 2 P 1/2 2 S 1/2 and 5p 2 P 3/2 2 S 1/2 components of the doublet line of atomic rubidium. By adjusting positive or negative frequency sweeps the pump pulse favors either one of the two transitions and eventually even decouples the two excited states. The population of the excited spin-orbit levels is monitored in real time by stimulated emission probing under conditions of different intensity, chirp, and pulse width of the driving field, giving detailed information on the coupling between the three levels and their interactions with the driving and probe fields at different points in spacetime. Both pump and probe pulses are carefully characterized after the interaction region by frequency-resolved optical gating. In order to interpret and understand the experimental results it is essential to consider the close relationship between pulse propagation and time evolution of the atomic system via the coupled Maxwell-Bloch equations. This analysis highlights the importance of spatial propagation of the light fields, as well as their temporal dependence, in understanding the dynamical population evolution, and quantitatively reproduces all aspects of the experimental measurements

Population dynamics in the high Arctic: Climate variations in time and space

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hendrichsen, Ditte Katrine

Climatic factors profoundly influence the population dynamics, species interactions and demography of Arctic species. Analyses of the spatio-temporal dynamics within and across species are therefore necessary to understand and predict the responses of Arctic ecosystems to climatic variability...

Seasonal population dynamics of Brachyiulus jawlowskii (Diplopoda, Julidae in the Dnieper river arena

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. G. Gudym

2016-06-01

Full Text Available We have researched the population dynamics of Brachyiulus jawlowskii Lohmander, 1928 in the arena of the Dnepr river (within the "Dnieper-Orilsky” Nature Reserve and also present a full picture of the habitat distribution of Julidae within the researched area. The tested models were basic types of arena biogeocenosis: sand steppe, black maple forests, artificial pine plantations, deciduous forest, meadow and swamp. Variation in population density of B. jawlowskii is determined by biotopical features. The swamp and meadow habitats can be characterized by the highest level of population dynamics. B. jawlowskii plays the greatest role in the herpetobiont grouping in swamp and oak forest habitats (6.7% and 4.6% respectively. In other types of habitat this species composes 0.1–3.5% of the total abundance of this group. The highest abundance dynamic was reached by the Julidae cenopopulations which inhabit the swamp, oak forest and meadow habitats. B. jawlowskii occupies a relatively significant share in the herpetobiont communities of these habitats. Thus, the indicators of absolute number of this species and its relative participation in the herpertobiont grouping indicate the preference of this species for marsh, oak forest and meadow habitats. These habitats can be characterized by an excessive or moderate level of edaphotopic humidification. The ecosystem of the steppe zone of Ukraine is subject to significant human impact. In nature reserves, this effect is minimized, which permits research to be conducted on regimes of natural population dynamics. We established that B. jawlowskii inhabits all habitats investigated within the arena zone of the Dnepr river. This indicates that this is an environmentally flexible Julidae species. The population dynamics of B. jawlowskii can be characterized by three distinct periods: spring-summer, summer and autumn. Each of these periods is characterized by a distinct population dynamic, but throughout the

Distinct retrosplenial cortex cell populations and their spike dynamics during ketamine-induced unconscious state.

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Grace E Fox

Full Text Available Ketamine is known to induce psychotic-like symptoms, including delirium and visual hallucinations. It also causes neuronal damage and cell death in the retrosplenial cortex (RSC, an area that is thought to be a part of high visual cortical pathways and at least partially responsible for ketamine's psychotomimetic activities. However, the basic physiological properties of RSC cells as well as their response to ketamine in vivo remained largely unexplored. Here, we combine a computational method, the Inter-Spike Interval Classification Analysis (ISICA, and in vivo recordings to uncover and profile excitatory cell subtypes within layers 2&3 and 5&6 of the RSC in mice within both conscious, sleep, and ketamine-induced unconscious states. We demonstrate two distinct excitatory principal cell sub-populations, namely, high-bursting excitatory principal cells and low-bursting excitatory principal cells, within layers 2&3, and show that this classification is robust over the conscious states, namely quiet awake, and natural unconscious sleep periods. Similarly, we provide evidence of high-bursting and low-bursting excitatory principal cell sub-populations within layers 5&6 that remained distinct during quiet awake and sleep states. We further examined how these subtypes are dynamically altered by ketamine. During ketamine-induced unconscious state, these distinct excitatory principal cell subtypes in both layer 2&3 and layer 5&6 exhibited distinct dynamics. We also uncovered different dynamics of local field potential under various brain states in layer 2&3 and layer 5&6. Interestingly, ketamine administration induced high gamma oscillations in layer 2&3 of the RSC, but not layer 5&6. Our results show that excitatory principal cells within RSC layers 2&3 and 5&6 contain multiple physiologically distinct sub-populations, and they are differentially affected by ketamine.

Noise-induced effects in population dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Spagnolo, Bernardo; Cirone, Markus; La Barbera, Antonino; de Pasquale, Ferdinando

2002-03-01

We investigate the role of noise in the nonlinear relaxation of two ecosystems described by generalized Lotka-Volterra equations in the presence of multiplicative noise. Specifically we study two cases: (i) an ecosystem with two interacting species in the presence of periodic driving; (ii) an ecosystem with a great number of interacting species with random interaction matrix. We analyse the interplay between noise and periodic modulation for case (i) and the role of the noise in the transient dynamics of the ecosystem in the presence of an absorbing barrier in case (ii). We find that the presence of noise is responsible for the generation of temporal oscillations and for the appearance of spatial patterns in the first case. In the other case we obtain the asymptotic behaviour of the time average of the ith population and discuss the effect of the noise on the probability distributions of the population and of the local field.

Effects of Peanut-Tobacco Rotations on Population Dynamics of Meloidogyne arenaria in Mixed Race Populations

OpenAIRE

Hirunsalee, Anan; Barker, K. R.; Beute, M. K.

1995-01-01

A 3-year microplot study was initiated to characterize the population dynamics, reproduction potential, and survivorship of single or mixed populations of Meloidogyne arenaria race 1 (Ma1) and race 2 (Ma2), as affected by crop rotations of peanut 'Florigiant' and M. incognita races 1 and 3-resistant 'McNair 373' and susceptible 'Coker 371-Gold' tobacco. Infection, reproduction, and root damage by Ma2 on peanut and by Ma1 on resistant tobacco were limited in the first year. Infection, reproduc...

Endogenous Population Dynamics and Economic Growth with Free Trade between Countries

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Wei-Bin Zhang

2016-05-01

Full Text Available This paper builds a model to deal with dynamic interdependence between different countries' birth rates, mortality rates, populations, wealth accumulation, and time distributions between working, leisure and children caring. The model shows the role of human capital, technological and preference changes on national differences in birth rates, mortality rates, time distributions, population change, and wealth accumulation. The economic mechanisms of wealth accumulation, production and trade are based the Solow growth model and the Oniki-Uzawa trade model. We use the utility function proposed by Zhang to describe the behavior of households. We model national and gender differences in human capital, propensity to have children, propensity to use leisure time, and children caring efficiency. We describe the dynamics of global economic growth, trade patterns, national differences in wealth, income, birth rates, mortality rates, and populations with differential equations. We simulate the model to show the motion of the system and identify the existence of equilibrium point. We also examine the effects of changes in the propensity to have children, the propensity to save, woman's propensity to use leisure, woman's human capital, and woman's emotional involvement in children caring on the dynamics of the global and national economies.

Dynamical behavior of a single polymer chain under nanometric confinement

Science.gov (United States)

Lagrené, K.; Zanotti, J.-M.; Daoud, M.; Farago, B.; Judeinstein, P.

2010-10-01

We address the dynamical behavior of a single polymer chain under nanometric confinement. We consider a polymer melt made of a mixture of hydrogenated and deuterated high molecular mass Poly(Ethylene Oxide) (PEO). The confining material is a membrane of Anodic Aluminum Oxide (AAO), a macroscopically highly ordered confining system made of parallel cylindrical channels. We use Neutron Spin-Echo (NSE) under the Zero Average Contrast (ZAC) condition to, all at once, i) match the intense porous AAO detrimental elastic SANS (Small Angle Neutron Scattering) contribution to the total intermediate scattering function I(Q,t) and ii) measure the Q dependence of the dynamical modes of a single chain under confinement. The polymer dynamics is probed on an extremely broad spacial ([2.2 10-2 Å-1, 0.2 Å-1]) and temporal ([0.1 ns, 600 ns]) ranges. We do not detect any influence of confinement on the polymer dynamics. This result is discussed in the framework of the debate on the existence of a "corset effect" recently suggested by NMR relaxometry data.

Border Collision Bifurcations in a Generalized Model of Population Dynamics

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Lilia M. Ladino

2016-01-01

Full Text Available We analyze the dynamics of a generalized discrete time population model of a two-stage species with recruitment and capture. This generalization, which is inspired by other approaches and real data that one can find in literature, consists in considering no restriction for the value of the two key parameters appearing in the model, that is, the natural death rate and the mortality rate due to fishing activity. In the more general case the feasibility of the system has been preserved by posing opportune formulas for the piecewise map defining the model. The resulting two-dimensional nonlinear map is not smooth, though continuous, as its definition changes as any border is crossed in the phase plane. Hence, techniques from the mathematical theory of piecewise smooth dynamical systems must be applied to show that, due to the existence of borders, abrupt changes in the dynamic behavior of population sizes and multistability emerge. The main novelty of the present contribution with respect to the previous ones is that, while using real data, richer dynamics are produced, such as fluctuations and multistability. Such new evidences are of great interest in biology since new strategies to preserve the survival of the species can be suggested.

Dynamic assessments of population exposure to urban greenspace using multi-source big data.

Science.gov (United States)

Song, Yimeng; Huang, Bo; Cai, Jixuan; Chen, Bin

2018-09-01

A growing body of evidence has proven that urban greenspace is beneficial to improve people's physical and mental health. However, knowledge of population exposure to urban greenspace across different spatiotemporal scales remains unclear. Moreover, the majority of existing environmental assessments are unable to quantify how residents enjoy their ambient greenspace during their daily life. To deal with this challenge, we proposed a dynamic method to assess urban greenspace exposure with the integration of mobile-phone locating-request (MPL) data and high-spatial-resolution remote sensing images. This method was further applied to 30 major cities in China by assessing cities' dynamic greenspace exposure levels based on residents' surrounding areas with different buffer scales (0.5km, 1km, and 1.5km). Results showed that regarding residents' 0.5-km surrounding environment, Wenzhou and Hangzhou were found to be with the greenest exposure experience, whereas Zhengzhou and Tangshan were the least ones. The obvious diurnal and daily variations of population exposure to their surrounding greenspace were also identified to be highly correlated with the distribution pattern of urban greenspace and the dynamics of human mobility. Compared with two common measurements of urban greenspace (green coverage rate and green area per capita), the developed method integrated the dynamics of population distribution and geographic locations of urban greenspace into the exposure assessment, thereby presenting a more reasonable way to assess population exposure to urban greenspace. Additionally, this dynamic framework could hold potential utilities in supporting urban planning studies and environmental health studies and advancing our understanding of the magnitude of population exposure to greenspace at different spatiotemporal scales. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Changes in Population Dynamics in Mutualistic versus Pathogenic Viruses

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Marilyn J. Roossinck

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Although generally regarded as pathogens, viruses can also be mutualists. A number of examples of extreme mutualism (i.e., symbiogenesis have been well studied. Other examples of mutualism are less common, but this is likely because viruses have rarely been thought of as having any beneficial effects on their hosts. The effect of mutualism on the population dynamics of viruses is a topic that has not been addressed experimentally. However, the potential for understanding mutualism and how a virus might become a mutualist may be elucidated by understanding these dynamics.

Factors affecting population dynamics of maternally transmitted endosymbionts in Bemisia tabaci.

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Huipeng Pan

Full Text Available While every individual of Bemisia tabaci (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae harbors the primary symbiont (P-symbiont Portiera, the infection frequencies of the six secondary symbionts (S-symbionts including Hamiltonella, Arsenophonus, Cardinium, Wolbachia, Rickettsia and Fritschea vary greatly among different populations. To characterize the factors influencing the infection dynamics of the six S-symbionts in B. tabaci, gene-specific PCR were conducted to screen for the presence of the P-symbiont Portiera and the six S-symbionts in 61 (17 B and 44 Q biotypes field populations collected from different plant species and locations in China. All individuals of the 61 populations hosted the P-symbiont Portiera, but none of them harbored Arsenophonus and Fritschea. The presence and infection rates of Hamiltonella, Cardinium, Rickettsia, Wolbachia and their co-infections Rickettsia + Hamiltonella (RH, Rickettsia + Cardinium (RC, Hamiltonella + Cardinium (HC and Rickettsia + Hamiltonella + Cardinium (RHC varied significantly among the 61 field populations; and the observed variations can be explained by biotypes, sexes, host plants and geographical locations of these field populations. Taken together, at least three factors including biotype, host plant and geographical location affect the infection dynamics of S-symbionts in B. tabaci.

Structured population dynamics: continuous size and discontinuous stage structures.

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Buffoni, Giuseppe; Pasquali, Sara

2007-04-01

A nonlinear stochastic model for the dynamics of a population with either a continuous size structure or a discontinuous stage structure is formulated in the Eulerian formalism. It takes into account dispersion effects due to stochastic variability of the development process of the individuals. The discrete equations of the numerical approximation are derived, and an analysis of the existence and stability of the equilibrium states is performed. An application to a copepod population is illustrated; numerical results of Eulerian and Lagrangian models are compared.

Life history and population dynamics of an estuarine amphipod, Eriopisa chilkensis Chilton (Gammaridae)

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Aravind, N.P.; Sheeba, P.; Nair, K.K.C.; Achuthankutty, C.T.

Life history and Population Dynamics of an Estuarine Amphipod –Eriopisa chilkensis Chilton (Gammaridae) Nisha. P. Aravind, P. Sheeba, K.K.C. Nair and C.T.Achuthankutty* National Institute of Oceanography, Regional Centre, Cochin 682018, India... of laboratory data to the field suggests that E. chilkensis in Cochin estuary has a multivoltine life cycle. Key words: - Eriopisa chilkensis, Amphipoda, life cycle, population dynamics, Cochin estuary, India 2 1. Introduction Life-history traits of 214 amphipod...

Effects of Peanut-Tobacco Rotations on Population Dynamics of Meloidogyne arenaria in Mixed Race Populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Hirunsalee, A; Barker, K R; Beute, M K

1995-06-01

A 3-year microplot study was initiated to characterize the population dynamics, reproduction potential, and survivorship of single or mixed populations of Meloidogyne arenaria race 1 (Ma1) and race 2 (Ma2), as affected by crop rotations of peanut 'Florigiant' and M. incognita races 1 and 3-resistant 'McNair 373' and susceptible 'Coker 371-Gold' tobacco. Infection, reproduction, and root damage by Ma2 on peanut and by Ma1 on resistant tobacco were limited in the first year. Infection, reproduction, and root-damage potentials on susceptible tobacco were similar for Ma1 and Ma2. In the mixed (1:1) population, Ma1 was dominant on peanut and Ma2 was dominant on both tobacco cultivars. Crop rotation affected the population dynamics of different nematode races. For years 2 and 3, the low numbers of Ma1 and Ma2 from a previous-year poor host increased rapidly on suitable hosts. Ma1 had greater reproduction factors ([RF] = population density at harvest/population density at preplandng) than did Ma2 and Ma1 + Ma2 in second-year peanut plots following first-year resistant tobacco, and in third-year peanut plots following second-year tobacco. In mixed infestations, Ma1 predominated over Ma2 in previous-year peanut plots, whereas Ma2 predominated over Ma1 in previous-year tobacco plots. Moderate damage on resistant tobacco was induced by Ma1 in the second year. In the third year, moderate damage on peanut was associated with 'Ma2' from previous-year peanut plots. The resistant tobacco supported sufficient reproduction of Ma1 over 2 years to effect moderate damage and yield suppression to peanut in year 3.

DynaPop-X: A population dynamics model applied to spatio-temporal exposure assessment - Implementation aspects from the CRISMA project

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Aubrecht, Christoph; Steinnocher, Klaus; Humer, Heinrich; Huber, Hermann

2014-05-01

In the context of proactive disaster risk as well as immediate situational crisis management knowledge of locational social aspects in terms of spatio-temporal population distribution dynamics is considered among the most important factors for disaster impact minimization (Aubrecht et al., 2013a). This applies to both the pre-event stage for designing appropriate preparedness measures and to acute crisis situations when an event chain actually unfolds for efficient situation-aware response. The presented DynaPop population dynamics model is developed at the interface of those interlinked crisis stages and aims at providing basic input for social impact evaluation and decision support in crisis management. The model provides the starting point for assessing population exposure dynamics - thus here labeled as DynaPop-X - which can either be applied in a sense of illustrating the changing locations and numbers of affected people at different stages during an event or as ex-ante estimations of probable and maximum expected clusters of affected population (Aubrecht et al., 2013b; Freire & Aubrecht, 2012). DynaPop is implemented via a gridded spatial disaggregation approach and integrates previous efforts on spatio-temporal modeling that account for various aspects of population dynamics such as human mobility and activity patterns that are particularly relevant in picturing the highly dynamic daytime situation (Ahola et al., 2007; Bhaduri, 2008; Cockings et al., 2010). We will present ongoing developments particularly focusing on the implementation logic of the model using the emikat software tool, a data management system initially designed for inventorying and analysis of spatially resolved regional air pollutant emission scenarios. This study was performed in the framework of the EU CRISMA project. CRISMA is funded from the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme FP7/2007-2013 under grant agreement no. 284552. REFERENCES Ahola, T., Virrantaus, K., Krisp, J

seasonal population dynamics of rodents of mount chilalo, arsi ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

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ABSTRACT: A study on seasonal population dynamics of rodents was carried out on Mount. Chilalo from .... vegetation growth, availability of food and water, and ... vegetation (3,300–4,200 masl) (Alemayehu. Mengistu, 1975; APEDO and ABRDP, 2004). The mountain is one of the Afrotropical biodiversity hotspots areas.

Population Dynamics of Biota on the Roots of Azolla microphylla Kaulfuss

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NITA ETIKAWATI

2000-01-01

Full Text Available Azolla was a special fern that their associations with Anabaena azollae able to fix free nitrogen from air, to produce protein. Although by the ages, biota diversity those habits on the roots of Azolla increased and effected to protein concentration. The research was to find out population dynamics of biota on the roots of Azolla microphylla Kaulfuss and the growth peak. This study used Completely Randomized Design with 10 kinds of biota, i.e. bacteria, Fungi, Actinomycetes, Protozoa, Alga, Crustacean, Rotifers, Coelenterate, Insect and Molluscs, and it was used 3 replications. Research was conducted within 4 weeks and the populations of biota were observed every week. Data were statistically analyzed using Analysis Variant and Duncan’s Multiple Range Test. The population dynamics of biota on the roots of Azolla microphylla Kaulfuss were influenced on its quantity and composition, and the growth peak is done in 2nd week.

Connection between Dynamically Derived Initial Mass Function Normalization and Stellar Population Parameters

NARCIS (Netherlands)

McDermid, Richard M.; Cappellari, Michele; Alatalo, Katherine; Bayet, Estelle; Blitz, Leo; Bois, Maxime; Bournaud, Frédéric; Bureau, Martin; Crocker, Alison F.; Davies, Roger L.; Davis, Timothy A.; de Zeeuw, P. T.; Duc, Pierre-Alain; Emsellem, Eric; Khochfar, Sadegh; Krajnović, Davor; Kuntschner, Harald; Morganti, Raffaella; Naab, Thorsten; Oosterloo, Tom; Sarzi, Marc; Scott, Nicholas; Serra, Paolo; Weijmans, Anne-Marie; Young, Lisa M.

We report on empirical trends between the dynamically determined stellar initial mass function (IMF) and stellar population properties for a complete, volume-limited sample of 260 early-type galaxies from the ATLAS3D project. We study trends between our dynamically derived IMF normalization αdyn ≡

Population dynamics of Ascaris suum in trickle-infected pigs.

Science.gov (United States)

Nejsum, Peter; Thamsborg, Stig M; Petersen, Heidi H; Kringel, Helene; Fredholm, Merete; Roepstorff, Allan

2009-10-01

The population dynamics of Ascaris suum was studied by long-term exposure of pigs to infective eggs. The pigs were experimentally inoculated with 25 A. suum eggs/kg/day, and 7, 8, and 8 pigs were necropsied at weeks 4, 8, and 14 postinoculation (PI), respectively. Despite the fact that the pigs were continuously reinfected, dramatic reductions in numbers of liver lesions (white spots) and migrating lung larvae were observed as a function of time. However, even at the end of the study, a few larvae were able to complete migration, but these larvae seemed unable to mature in the small intestine. Thus, the adult worm population seemed to consist of worms from the first part of the exposure period. The noticeable decrease in number of white spots suggests that the level of exposure is not reflected in the number of white spots in the late phase of a continuous infection. The serum levels of A. suum L3-specific IgG1 and IgA were significantly elevated by week 4 PI, after which the antibody levels declined. The population dynamics and parasite regulating mechanisms are discussed for A. suum in pigs as well as for the closely related species A. lumbricoides in humans.

Simplified Model for the Population Dynamics Involved in a Malaria Crisis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kenfack-Jiotsa, A.; Fotsa-Ngaffo, F.

2009-12-01

We adapt a simple model of predator-prey to the population involved in a crisis of malaria. The study is made only in the stream blood inside the human body except for the liver. Particularly we look at the dynamics of the malaria parasites 'merozoites' and their interaction with the blood components, more specifically the red blood cells (RBC) and the immune response grouped under the white blood cells (WBC). The stability analysis of the system reveals an important practical direction to investigate as regards the ratio WBC over RBC since it is a fundamental parameter that characterizes stable regions. The model numerically presents a wide range of possible features of the disease. Even with its simplified form, the model not only recovers well-known results but in addition predicts possible hidden phenomenon and an interesting clinical feature a malaria crisis. (author)

Complex networks under dynamic repair model

Science.gov (United States)

Chaoqi, Fu; Ying, Wang; Kun, Zhao; Yangjun, Gao

2018-01-01

Invulnerability is not the only factor of importance when considering complex networks' security. It is also critical to have an effective and reasonable repair strategy. Existing research on network repair is confined to the static model. The dynamic model makes better use of the redundant capacity of repaired nodes and repairs the damaged network more efficiently than the static model; however, the dynamic repair model is complex and polytropic. In this paper, we construct a dynamic repair model and systematically describe the energy-transfer relationships between nodes in the repair process of the failure network. Nodes are divided into three types, corresponding to three structures. We find that the strong coupling structure is responsible for secondary failure of the repaired nodes and propose an algorithm that can select the most suitable targets (nodes or links) to repair the failure network with minimal cost. Two types of repair strategies are identified, with different effects under the two energy-transfer rules. The research results enable a more flexible approach to network repair.

Optimal Portfolios Under Dynamic Shortfall Constraints | Akume ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

industry standard with regulatory authorities enforcing its use in risk measurement and management. Despite its widespread acceptance, VaR is not coherent. Tail Conditional Expectation (TCE), on the other hand, for an underlying continuous distribution, is a coherent risk measures. Our focus in this paper is the dynamic ...

Phase control of light amplification with dynamically irreversible pathways of population transfer in a Λ system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yuan Shi; Wu Jinhui; Gao Jinyue; Pan Chunliu

2002-01-01

We use the relative phase of two coherent fields for the control of light amplification with dynamically irreversible pathways of population transfer in a Λ system. The population inversion and gain with dynamically irreversible pathways of population transfer are shown as the relative phase is varied. We support our results by numerical calculation and analytical explanation

Spatial and temporal dynamics of the genetic organization of small mammal populations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, M.H.; Manlove, M.N.; Joule, J.

1978-01-01

A functional population is a group of organisms and their offspring that contributes to a common gene pool within a certain area and time period. It is also the unit of evolution and should be viewed both in quantitative and qualitative terms. Selection, drift, dispersal, and mutation can alter the composition of populations. Spatial heterogeneity in allele frequencies argues for a conceptual model that has a series of relatively small populations semi-isolated from one another. Because of the relatively high levels of genetic variability characteristic of most mammalian species, significant amounts of gene flow between these spatially subdivided populations must occur when longer time periods are considered. Fluctuations in the genetic structure of populations seem to be important in altering the fitness of the individuals within the populations. The interaction of populations through gene flow is important in changing the levels of intrapopulational genetic variability. Populations can be characterized as existing on a continuum from relatively stable to unstable numbers and by other associated changes in their characteristics. Temporal changes in allele frequency occur in a variety of mammals. Conceptually, a species can be viewed as a series of dynamic populations that vary in numbers and quality in both a spatial and temporal context even over short distances and time periods. Short term changes in the quality of individuals in a population can be important in altering the short term dynamics of a population

Statistical characteristics of dynamics for population migration driven by the economic interests

Science.gov (United States)

Huo, Jie; Wang, Xu-Ming; Zhao, Ning; Hao, Rui

2016-06-01

Population migration typically occurs under some constraints, which can deeply affect the structure of a society and some other related aspects. Therefore, it is critical to investigate the characteristics of population migration. Data from the China Statistical Yearbook indicate that the regional gross domestic product per capita relates to the population size via a linear or power-law relation. In addition, the distribution of population migration sizes or relative migration strength introduced here is dominated by a shifted power-law relation. To reveal the mechanism that creates the aforementioned distributions, a dynamic model is proposed based on the population migration rule that migration is facilitated by higher financial gains and abated by fewer employment opportunities at the destination, considering the migration cost as a function of the migration distance. The calculated results indicate that the distribution of the relative migration strength is governed by a shifted power-law relation, and that the distribution of migration distances is dominated by a truncated power-law relation. These results suggest the use of a power-law to fit a distribution may be not always suitable. Additionally, from the modeling framework, one can infer that it is the randomness and determinacy that jointly create the scaling characteristics of the distributions. The calculation also demonstrates that the network formed by active nodes, representing the immigration and emigration regions, usually evolves from an ordered state with a non-uniform structure to a disordered state with a uniform structure, which is evidenced by the increasing structural entropy.

Population dynamics of soil microbes and diversity of Bacillus ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

ONOS

2010-01-25

Jan 25, 2010 ... Population dynamics of soil microbes and diversity of ... 25.78, 25.78, 86.26, 24.73, 68.0, 26.8 and 26.8 kDa proteins and equivalent to Cyt, Cry5 and Cry2 toxins ..... Molecular weight (kDa) of protein fractions of the BT isolates.

Population dynamics of the invasive fish, Gambusia affinis , in ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Repeated-measures ANOVA analyses on the catch per unit effort (CPUE) of G. affinis between sampling events and dams revealed significant differences in population dynamics among dams, although an overall trend of rapid increase followed by plateau in summer, with a rapid decline in winter was seen in most dams.

Individual based model of slug population and spatial dynamics

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Choi, Y.H.; Bohan, D.A.; Potting, R.P.J.; Semenov, M.A.; Glen, D.M.

2006-01-01

The slug, Deroceras reticulatum, is one of the most important pests of agricultural and horticultural crops in UK and Europe. In this paper, a spatially explicit individual based model (IbM) is developed to study the dynamics of a population of D. reticulatum. The IbM establishes a virtual field

How landscape dynamics link individual- to population-level movement patterns: A multispecies comparison of ungulate relocation data

Science.gov (United States)

Mueller, Thomas; Olson, K.A.; Dressler, G.; Leimgruber, Peter; Fuller, Todd K.; Nicholson, Craig; Novaro, A.J.; Bolgeri, M.J.; Wattles, David W.; DeStefano, Stephen; Calabrese, J.M.; Fagan, William F.

2011-01-01

Aim  To demonstrate how the interrelations of individual movements form large-scale population-level movement patterns and how these patterns are associated with the underlying landscape dynamics by comparing ungulate movements across species.Locations  Arctic tundra in Alaska and Canada, temperate forests in Massachusetts, Patagonian Steppes in Argentina, Eastern Steppes in Mongolia.Methods  We used relocation data from four ungulate species (barren-ground caribou, Mongolian gazelle, guanaco and moose) to examine individual movements and the interrelation of movements among individuals. We applied and developed a suite of spatial metrics that measure variation in movement among individuals as population dispersion, movement coordination and realized mobility. Taken together, these metrics allowed us to quantify and distinguish among different large-scale population-level movement patterns such as migration, range residency and nomadism. We then related the population-level movement patterns to the underlying landscape vegetation dynamics via long-term remote sensing measurements of the temporal variability, spatial variability and unpredictability of vegetation productivity.Results  Moose, which remained in sedentary home ranges, and guanacos, which were partially migratory, exhibited relatively short annual movements associated with landscapes having very little broad-scale variability in vegetation. Caribou and gazelle performed extreme long-distance movements that were associated with broad-scale variability in vegetation productivity during the peak of the growing season. Caribou exhibited regular seasonal migration in which individuals were clustered for most of the year and exhibited coordinated movements. In contrast, gazelle were nomadic, as individuals were independently distributed and moved in an uncoordinated manner that relates to the comparatively unpredictable (yet broad-scale) vegetation dynamics of their landscape.Main conclusions�

Exploiting Fast-Variables to Understand Population Dynamics and Evolution

Science.gov (United States)

Constable, George W. A.; McKane, Alan J.

2017-11-01

We describe a continuous-time modelling framework for biological population dynamics that accounts for demographic noise. In the spirit of the methodology used by statistical physicists, transitions between the states of the system are caused by individual events while the dynamics are described in terms of the time-evolution of a probability density function. In general, the application of the diffusion approximation still leaves a description that is quite complex. However, in many biological applications one or more of the processes happen slowly relative to the system's other processes, and the dynamics can be approximated as occurring within a slow low-dimensional subspace. We review these time-scale separation arguments and analyse the more simple stochastic dynamics that result in a number of cases. We stress that it is important to retain the demographic noise derived in this way, and emphasise this point by showing that it can alter the direction of selection compared to the prediction made from an analysis of the corresponding deterministic model.

Collective Dynamics of Belief Evolution under Cognitive Coherence and Social Conformity.

Science.gov (United States)

Rodriguez, Nathaniel; Bollen, Johan; Ahn, Yong-Yeol

2016-01-01

Human history has been marked by social instability and conflict, often driven by the irreconcilability of opposing sets of beliefs, ideologies, and religious dogmas. The dynamics of belief systems has been studied mainly from two distinct perspectives, namely how cognitive biases lead to individual belief rigidity and how social influence leads to social conformity. Here we propose a unifying framework that connects cognitive and social forces together in order to study the dynamics of societal belief evolution. Each individual is endowed with a network of interacting beliefs that evolves through interaction with other individuals in a social network. The adoption of beliefs is affected by both internal coherence and social conformity. Our framework may offer explanations for how social transitions can arise in otherwise homogeneous populations, how small numbers of zealots with highly coherent beliefs can overturn societal consensus, and how belief rigidity protects fringe groups and cults against invasion from mainstream beliefs, allowing them to persist and even thrive in larger societies. Our results suggest that strong consensus may be insufficient to guarantee social stability, that the cognitive coherence of belief-systems is vital in determining their ability to spread, and that coherent belief-systems may pose a serious problem for resolving social polarization, due to their ability to prevent consensus even under high levels of social exposure. We argue that the inclusion of cognitive factors into a social model could provide a more complete picture of collective human dynamics.

Linking individual phenotype to density-dependent population growth: the influence of body size on the population dynamics of malaria vectors

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Russell, T.L.; Lwetoijera, D.W.; Knols, B.G.J.; Takken, W.; Killeen, G.F.; Ferguson, H.M.

2011-01-01

Understanding the endogenous factors that drive the population dynamics of malaria mosquitoes will facilitate more accurate predictions about vector control effectiveness and our ability to destabilize the growth of either low- or high-density insect populations. We assessed whether variation in

Linking individual phenotype to density-dependent population growth: the influence of body size on the population dynamics of malaria vectors

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Russell, T.L.; Lwetoijera, D.W.; Knols, B.G.J.; Takken, W.; Killeen, G.F.; Ferguson, H.M.

2011-01-01

Understanding the endogenous factors that drive the population dynamics of malaria mosquitoes will facilitate more accurate predictions about vector control effectiveness and our ability to destabilize the growth of either low-or high-density insect populations. We assessed whether variation in

An obligatory bacterial mutualism in a multi-drug environment exhibits strong oscillatory population dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Conwill, Arolyn; Yurtsev, Eugene; Gore, Jeff

2014-03-01

A common mechanism of antibiotic resistance in bacteria involves the production of an enzyme that inactivates the antibiotic. By inactivating the antibiotic, resistant cells can protect other cells in the population that would otherwise be sensitive to the drug. In a multidrug environment, an obligatory mutualism arises because populations of different strains rely on each other to breakdown antibiotics in the environment. Here, we experimentally track the population dynamics of two E. coli strains in the presence of two different antibiotics: ampicillin and chloramphenicol. Together the strains are able to grow in antibiotic concentrations that inhibit growth of either one of the strains alone. Although mutualisms are often thought to stabilize population dynamics, we observe strong oscillatory dynamics even when there is long-term coexistence between the two strains. We expect that our results will provide insight into the evolution of antibiotic resistance and, more generally, the evolutionary origin of phenotypic diversity, cooperation, and ecological stability.

Weed populations and crop rotations: exploring dynamics of a structured periodic system

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mertens, S.K.; Bosch, F. van den; Heesterbeek, J.A.P.

2002-01-01

The periodic growing of a certain set of crops in a prescribed order, called a crop rotation, is considered to be an important tool for managing weed populations. Nevertheless, the effects of crop rotations on weed population dynamics are not well understood. Explanations for rotation effects on

Relationship between ancient bridges and population dynamics in the lower Yangtze River Basin, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Yang; Jia, Xin; Lee, Harry F; Zhao, Hongqiang; Cai, Shuliang; Huang, Xianjin

2017-01-01

It has been suggested that population growth dynamics may be revealed by the geographic distribution and the physical structure of ancient bridges. Yet, this relationship has not been empirically verified. In this study, we applied the archaeological records for ancient bridges to reveal the population growth dynamics in the lower Yangtze River Basin in late imperial China. We investigated 89 ancient bridges in Yixing that were built during the Ming and Qing dynasties (AD1368-1911). Global Position System information and structure (length, width, and span) of those bridges was measured during our field investigations. Their distribution density was calculated by ArcGIS. The historical socio-economic dynamics of Yixing was inferred from the distribution and structure of ancient bridges. Based on the above information, the population growth dynamics in Yixing was projected. Our results show that 77 bridges were built in Yixing during the Qing dynasty, which is 6.41 times more than the number built during the Ming dynasty. In the Ming dynasty, bridges were built on pivotal routes; in the Qing dynasty, bridges were scattered across various places. Over the period, the density distribution of bridges shifted northwestward, while the average length and width of bridges decreased. The increasing number of bridges corresponded to population growth, largely attributable to massive clan migration from northern China during the Little Ice Age. The shift in the density distribution of bridges corresponded to the formation of settlements of large clans and the blossoming of Yixing Teapot handicrafts. The scattering and the reduction in average length and width of bridges was due to the dispersal of population and the associated formation of small settlements in the latter period. Our approach is innovative and robust, and could be employed to recover long-term historical population growth dynamics in other parts of China.

Relationship between ancient bridges and population dynamics in the lower Yangtze River Basin, China.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yang Zhao

Full Text Available It has been suggested that population growth dynamics may be revealed by the geographic distribution and the physical structure of ancient bridges. Yet, this relationship has not been empirically verified. In this study, we applied the archaeological records for ancient bridges to reveal the population growth dynamics in the lower Yangtze River Basin in late imperial China. We investigated 89 ancient bridges in Yixing that were built during the Ming and Qing dynasties (AD1368-1911. Global Position System information and structure (length, width, and span of those bridges was measured during our field investigations. Their distribution density was calculated by ArcGIS. The historical socio-economic dynamics of Yixing was inferred from the distribution and structure of ancient bridges. Based on the above information, the population growth dynamics in Yixing was projected. Our results show that 77 bridges were built in Yixing during the Qing dynasty, which is 6.41 times more than the number built during the Ming dynasty. In the Ming dynasty, bridges were built on pivotal routes; in the Qing dynasty, bridges were scattered across various places. Over the period, the density distribution of bridges shifted northwestward, while the average length and width of bridges decreased. The increasing number of bridges corresponded to population growth, largely attributable to massive clan migration from northern China during the Little Ice Age. The shift in the density distribution of bridges corresponded to the formation of settlements of large clans and the blossoming of Yixing Teapot handicrafts. The scattering and the reduction in average length and width of bridges was due to the dispersal of population and the associated formation of small settlements in the latter period. Our approach is innovative and robust, and could be employed to recover long-term historical population growth dynamics in other parts of China.

Mapping Application for Penguin Populations and Projected Dynamics (MAPPPD): Data and Tools for Dynamic Management and Decision Support

Science.gov (United States)

Humphries, G. R. W.; Naveen, R.; Schwaller, M.; Che-Castaldo, C.; McDowall, P.; Schrimpf, M.; Schrimpf, Michael; Lynch, H. J.

2017-01-01

The Mapping Application for Penguin Populations and Projected Dynamics (MAPPPD) is a web-based, open access, decision-support tool designed to assist scientists, non-governmental organizations and policy-makers working to meet the management objectives as set forth by the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) and other components of the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS) (that is, Consultative Meetings and the ATS Committee on Environmental Protection). MAPPPD was designed specifically to complement existing efforts such as the CCAMLR Ecosystem Monitoring Program (CEMP) and the ATS site guidelines for visitors. The database underlying MAPPPD includes all publicly available (published and unpublished) count data on emperor, gentoo, Adelie) and chinstrap penguins in Antarctica. Penguin population models are used to assimilate available data into estimates of abundance for each site and year.Results are easily aggregated across multiple sites to obtain abundance estimates over any user-defined area of interest. A front end web interface located at www.penguinmap.com provides free and ready access to the most recent count and modelled data, and can act as a facilitator for data transfer between scientists and Antarctic stakeholders to help inform management decisions for the continent.

Stochastic Online Learning in Dynamic Networks under Unknown Models

Science.gov (United States)

2016-08-02

The key is to develop online learning strategies at each individual node. Specifically, through local information exchange with its neighbors, each...infinitely repeated game with incomplete information and developed a dynamic pricing strategy referred to as Competitive and Cooperative Demand Learning...Stochastic Online Learning in Dynamic Networks under Unknown Models This research aims to develop fundamental theories and practical algorithms for

Alternating event processes during lifetimes: population dynamics and statistical inference.

Science.gov (United States)

Shinohara, Russell T; Sun, Yifei; Wang, Mei-Cheng

2018-01-01

In the literature studying recurrent event data, a large amount of work has been focused on univariate recurrent event processes where the occurrence of each event is treated as a single point in time. There are many applications, however, in which univariate recurrent events are insufficient to characterize the feature of the process because patients experience nontrivial durations associated with each event. This results in an alternating event process where the disease status of a patient alternates between exacerbations and remissions. In this paper, we consider the dynamics of a chronic disease and its associated exacerbation-remission process over two time scales: calendar time and time-since-onset. In particular, over calendar time, we explore population dynamics and the relationship between incidence, prevalence and duration for such alternating event processes. We provide nonparametric estimation techniques for characteristic quantities of the process. In some settings, exacerbation processes are observed from an onset time until death; to account for the relationship between the survival and alternating event processes, nonparametric approaches are developed for estimating exacerbation process over lifetime. By understanding the population dynamics and within-process structure, the paper provide a new and general way to study alternating event processes.

Distribution and population dynamics of Rhizobium sp. introduced into soil

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Postma, J.

1989-01-01

In this thesis the population dynamics of bacteria introduced into soil was studied. In the introduction, the existence of microhabitats favourable for the survival of indigenous bacteria is discussed. Knowledge about the distribution of introduced bacteria over

A cat's tale: the impact of genetic restoration on Florida panther population dynamics and persistence.

Science.gov (United States)

Hostetler, Jeffrey A; Onorato, David P; Jansen, Deborah; Oli, Madan K

2013-05-01

1. Genetic restoration has been suggested as a management tool for mitigating detrimental effects of inbreeding depression in small, inbred populations, but the demographic mechanisms underlying population-level responses to genetic restoration remain poorly understood. 2. We studied the dynamics and persistence of the endangered Florida panther Puma concolor coryi population and evaluated the potential influence of genetic restoration on population growth and persistence parameters. As part of the genetic restoration programme, eight female Texas pumas P. c. stanleyana were released into Florida panther habitat in southern Florida in 1995. 3. The overall asymptotic population growth rate (λ) was 1.04 (5th and 95th percentiles: 0.95-1.14), suggesting an increase in the panther population of approximately 4% per year. Considering the effects of environmental and demographic stochasticities and density-dependence, the probability that the population will fall below 10 panthers within 100 years was 0.072 (0-0.606). 4. Our results suggest that the population would have declined at 5% per year (λ = 0.95; 0.83-1.08) in the absence of genetic restoration. Retrospective life table response experiment analysis revealed that the positive effect of genetic restoration on survival of kittens was primarily responsible for the substantial growth of the panther population that would otherwise have been declining. 5. For comparative purposes, we also estimated probability of quasi-extinction under two scenarios - implementation of genetic restoration and no genetic restoration initiative - using the estimated abundance of panthers in 1995, the year genetic restoration was initiated. Assuming no density-dependence, the probability that the panther population would fall below 10 panthers by 2010 was 0.098 (0.002-0.332) for the restoration scenario and 0.445 (0.032-0.944) for the no restoration scenario, providing further evidence that the panther population would have faced a

Dynamic Performance Analysis for an Absorption Chiller under Different Working Conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jian Wang

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Due to the merits of energy saving and environmental protection, the absorption chiller (AC has attracted a lot of attention, and previous studies only concentrated on the dynamic response of the AC under a single working condition. However, the working conditions are usually variable, and the dynamic performance under different working conditions is beneficial for the adjustment of AC and the control of the whole system, of which the stabilization can be affected by the AC transient process. Therefore, the steady and dynamic models of a single-effect H2O-LiBr absorption chiller are built up, the thermal inertia and fluid storage are also taken into consideration. And the dynamic performance analyses of the AC are completed under different external parameters. Furthermore, a whole system using AC in a process plant is analyzed. As a conclusion, the time required to reach a new steady-state (relaxation time increases when the step change of the generator inlet temperature becomes large, the cooling water inlet temperature rises, or the evaporator inlet temperature decreases. In addition, the control strategy considering the AC dynamic performance is favorable to the operation of the whole system.

Geographic coupling of juvenile and adult habitat shapes spatial population dynamics of a coral reef fish

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Huijbers, C.M.; Nagelekerken, I.; Debrot, A.O.; Jongejans, E.

2013-01-01

Marine spatial population dynamics are often addressed with a focus on larval dispersal, without taking into account movement behavior of individuals in later life stages. Processes occurring during demersal life stages may also drive spatial population dynamics if habitat quality is perceived

Dynamic single-cell analysis of Saccharomyces cerevisiae under process perturbation: Comparison of different methods for monitoring the intensity of population heterogeneity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Delvigne, Frank; Baert, Jonathan; Gofflot, Sébastien

2015-01-01

BACKGROUND: Single cell biology has attracted a lot of attention in recent years and has led to numerous fundamental results pointing out the heterogeneity of clonal cell populations. In this context, microbial phenotypic heterogeneity under bioprocessing conditions needs to be further investigat...

The dynamic behavior of mortar under impact-loading

Science.gov (United States)

Kawai, Nobuaki; Inoue, Kenji; Misawa, Satoshi; Tanaka, Kyoji; Hayashi, Shizuo; Kondo, Ken-Ichi; Riedel, Werner

2007-06-01

Concrete and mortar are the most fundamental structural material. Therefore, considerable interest in characterizing the dynamic behavior of them under impact-loading exists. In this study, plate impact experiments have been performed to determine the dynamic behavior of mortar. Longitudinal and lateral stresses have been directly measured by means of embedded polyvinylidene fluoride (PVDF) gauges up to 1 GPa. A 200 mm-cal. powder gun enable us to measure longitudinal and lateral stresses at several point from the impact surface, simultaneously. The shear strength under impact-loading has been obtained from measured longitudinal and lateral stresses. The longitudinal stress profile shows a two-wave structure. It is indicated that this structure is associated with the onset of pore compaction and failure of mortar by comparing with hydrocode simulations using an elastic-plastic damage model for concrete.

Endogenous Population Dynamics and Economic Growth with Free Trade between Countries

OpenAIRE

Wei-Bin Zhang

2016-01-01

This paper builds a model to deal with dynamic interdependence between different countries' birth rates, mortality rates, populations, wealth accumulation, and time distributions between working, leisure and children caring. The model shows the role of human capital, technological and preference changes on national differences in birth rates, mortality rates, time distributions, population change, and wealth accumulation. The economic mechanisms of wealth accumulation, production and trade ar...

State diagram for adhesion dynamics of deformable capsules under shear flow.

Science.gov (United States)

Luo, Zheng Yuan; Bai, Bo Feng

2016-08-17

Due to the significance of understanding the underlying mechanisms of cell adhesion in biological processes and cell capture in biomedical applications, we numerically investigate the adhesion dynamics of deformable capsules under shear flow by using a three-dimensional computational fluid dynamic model. This model is based on the coupling of the front tracking-finite element method for elastic mechanics of the capsule membrane and the adhesion kinetics simulation for adhesive interactions between capsules and functionalized surfaces. Using this model, three distinct adhesion dynamic states are predicted, such as detachment, rolling and firm-adhesion. Specifically, the effects of capsule deformability quantified by the capillary number on the transitions of these three dynamic states are investigated by developing an adhesion dynamic state diagram for the first time. At low capillary numbers (e.g. Ca state no longer appears, since capsules exhibit large deviation from the spherical shape.

Effects of seven diets on the population dynamics of laboratory cultured Tisbe holothuriae Humes (Copepoda, Harpacticoida)

Science.gov (United States)

Miliou, H.; Moraïtou-Apostolopoulou, M.

1991-09-01

The harpacticoid copepod Tisbe holothuriae was collected from Saronicos Gulf (Greece) and reared under constant laboratory conditions. In order to study the effects of food on the population dynamics, seven diets were tested: the seaweed Ulva; five artificial compound feeds: the liquid Fryfood® (Waterlife), a powder of Mytilus, yeast, soya and Spirulina, respectively; and a mixed diet consisting of Ulva and Fryfood. The life cycle parameters (mortality, sex ratio, generation time, offspring production) were measured, and the demographic variables [mean generation time (T), net reproductive rate (Ro), and intrinsic rate of natural increase (rm)] were determined. As to their efficiency regarding population dynamics, the diets ranked as follows: (1) Ulva+Fryfood, (2), Ulva, (3) Fryfood, (4) Mytilus, (5) soya, (6) yeast, and (7) Spirulina. In this order they cause a progressive increase of both larval mortality and generation time, a progressive decrease of sex ratio, number of offspring per egg sac, number of egg sacs per female and, consequently, of Ro and rm. The observed differences between diets were most pronounced with respect to offspring production. Of the compound diets, those containing animal extracts were more efficient than those containing vegetable materials. Ulva plays an important role in the nutrition of T. holothuriae, favouring offspring production as well as larval survival, development and pigmentation. Ulva in combination with Fryfood led to a greater copepodid survival and offspring production. This mixed diet proved to be the most favourable for rearing the Greek population of t. holothuriae, resulting in an efficient intrinsic rate of natural increase (rm=0.304) of the population.

Fast stochastic algorithm for simulating evolutionary population dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Tsimring, Lev; Hasty, Jeff; Mather, William

2012-02-01

Evolution and co-evolution of ecological communities are stochastic processes often characterized by vastly different rates of reproduction and mutation and a coexistence of very large and very small sub-populations of co-evolving species. This creates serious difficulties for accurate statistical modeling of evolutionary dynamics. In this talk, we introduce a new exact algorithm for fast fully stochastic simulations of birth/death/mutation processes. It produces a significant speedup compared to the direct stochastic simulation algorithm in a typical case when the total population size is large and the mutation rates are much smaller than birth/death rates. We illustrate the performance of the algorithm on several representative examples: evolution on a smooth fitness landscape, NK model, and stochastic predator-prey system.

Optimal growth entails risky localization in population dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Gueudré, Thomas; Martin, David G.

2018-03-01

Essential to each other, growth and exploration are jointly observed in alive and inanimate entities, such as animals, cells or goods. But how the environment's structural and temporal properties weights in this balance remains elusive. We analyze a model of stochastic growth with time correlations and diffusive dynamics that sheds light on the way populations grow and spread over general networks. This model suggests natural explanations of empirical facts in econo-physics or ecology, such as the risk-return trade-off and the Zipf law. We conclude that optimal growth leads to a localized population distribution, but such risky position can be mitigated through the space geometry. These results have broad applicability and are subsequently illustrated over an empirical study of financial data.

Analysis of Population Diversity of Dynamic Probabilistic Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithms

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qingjian Ni

2014-01-01

Full Text Available In evolutionary algorithm, population diversity is an important factor for solving performance. In this paper, combined with some population diversity analysis methods in other evolutionary algorithms, three indicators are introduced to be measures of population diversity in PSO algorithms, which are standard deviation of population fitness values, population entropy, and Manhattan norm of standard deviation in population positions. The three measures are used to analyze the population diversity in a relatively new PSO variant—Dynamic Probabilistic Particle Swarm Optimization (DPPSO. The results show that the three measure methods can fully reflect the evolution of population diversity in DPPSO algorithms from different angles, and we also discuss the impact of population diversity on the DPPSO variants. The relevant conclusions of the population diversity on DPPSO can be used to analyze, design, and improve the DPPSO algorithms, thus improving optimization performance, which could also be beneficial to understand the working mechanism of DPPSO theoretically.

Dynamic population gratings in rare-earth-doped optical fibres

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stepanov, Serguei [Optics Department, CICESE, km.107 carr. Tijuana-Ensenada, Ensenada, 22860, BC (Mexico)], E-mail: steps@cicese.mx

2008-11-21

Dynamic Bragg gratings can be recorded in rare-earth (e.g. Er, Yb) doped optical fibres by two counter-propagating mutually coherent laser waves via local saturation of the fibre optical absorption or gain (in optically pumped fibres). Typical recording cw light power needed for efficient grating formation is of sub-mW-mW scale which results in characteristic recording/erasure times of 10-0.1 ms. This review paper discusses fundamental aspects of the population grating formation, their basic properties, relating wave-mixing processes and also considers different applications of these dynamic gratings in single-frequency fibre lasers, tunable filters, optical fibre sensors and adaptive interferometry.

Dynamic population gratings in rare-earth-doped optical fibres

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stepanov, Serguei

2008-01-01

Dynamic Bragg gratings can be recorded in rare-earth (e.g. Er, Yb) doped optical fibres by two counter-propagating mutually coherent laser waves via local saturation of the fibre optical absorption or gain (in optically pumped fibres). Typical recording cw light power needed for efficient grating formation is of sub-mW-mW scale which results in characteristic recording/erasure times of 10-0.1 ms. This review paper discusses fundamental aspects of the population grating formation, their basic properties, relating wave-mixing processes and also considers different applications of these dynamic gratings in single-frequency fibre lasers, tunable filters, optical fibre sensors and adaptive interferometry.

Population Dynamics of the Mediterranean Fruit Fly in Montenegro

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sanja Radonjić

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Population dynamics of the Mediterranean fruit fly was studied along Montenegro seacoast. Tephri traps baited with 3 component female-biased attractants were used in 11 different localities to monitor the fruit fly population in commercial citrus orchards, mixed-fruit orchards, and in backyards. From 2008–2010, the earliest captures were recorded no earlier than July. In 2011, the first adult fly was detected in mid-June. Low captures rates were recorded in July and August (below 0.5 flies per trap per day; FTD and peaked from mid-September to the end of October of each year. Our results indicate fluctuation of fly per trap per day depending on dates of inspection and locality, with significant differences in the adult population density. A maximum population was always reached in the area of Budva-Herceg Novi with an FTD of 66.5, 89.5, 71.63, and 24.64 (from 2008–2011 respectively. Fly activity lasts from mid-June/early-July to end December, with distinct seasonal variation in the population.

Sensitivity Analysis for Assessing Effects of Tree Population Dynamics on Soil Bioturbation

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, Y. E.; Johnson, E. A.

2012-12-01

Bioturbation due to tree root throw is thought to be an important process in soil production and soil mixing. Despite progress in our understanding of root throw processes, the tree population dynamics affecting the occurrence and timing of root throw events remain much less well explained. Unfortunately, research about forest dynamics is not always undertaken from the perspective of those interested in tree death, tree topple and associated root throw. As a result, the necessary field data about tree population dynamics is often unavailable for many locations. The acquisition of such data would allow for improved interpretation of root throw observations and for incorporation within numerical models of tree root throw occurrence. The present study uses our earlier tree population dynamics model calibrated for subalpine forests in the Canadian Rockies to test the sensitivity of forest parameters within the model that determine tree death, tree topple, root throw and soil bioturbation. Crown wildfire disturbance is the primary driver of tree population dynamics, with wind throw being mainly of local importance. The recruitment and mortality of trees during multiple generations of forest determine the number of live trees on the landscape at any given time. Tree death may occur due to competition/thinning of trees between wildfire events or as a result of the wildfire itself. Unless trees die due to sudden wind throw events (as mentioned above, this is only of local significance in our study area), they remain standing for some time period after tree death and before tree topple; these trees are referred to as standing dead trees. The duration of this time window and several other factors influence if a tree breaks at its base or upheaves a relatively intact root plate with attached sediment. Our field research has also suggested that a minimum dbh is required before a root plate is large enough to upheave notable amounts of sediment. Modelling results in this study

[Population dynamics of oligosporous actinomycetes in Chernozem soil].

Science.gov (United States)

Zenova, G M; Mikhaĭlova, N V; Zviagintsev, D G

2000-01-01

Investigation of the dynamics of an oligosporous actinomycete population in chernozem soil in the course of succession induced by soil wetting allowed us to reveal the time intervals and conditions optimal for the isolation of particular oligosporous actinomycetes. Saccharopolysporas and microbisporas proved to be best isolated in the early and late stages of succession, whereas actinomycetes of the subgroup Actinomadura and saccharomonosporas could be best isolated in the early and intermediate stages of succession.

Investigation of Balance Function Using Dynamic Posturography under Electrical-Acoustic Stimulation in Cochlear Implant Recipients

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Schwab

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Introduction. The purpose of the present study is to investigate the effect of electrical-acoustic stimulation on vestibular function in CI patients by using the EquiTest and to help answer the question of whether electrically stimulating the inner ear using a cochlear implant influences the balance system in any way. Material and Methods. A test population (=50 was selected at random from among the cochlear implant recipients. Dynamic posturography (using the EquiTest was performed with the device switched off an switched on. Results. In summary, it can be said that an activated cochlear implant affects the function of the vestibular system and may, to an extent, even lead to a stabilization of balance function under the static conditions of dynamic posturography, but nevertheless also to a significant destabilization. Significant improvements in vestibular function were seen mainly in equilibrium scores under conditions 4 and 5, the composite equilibrium score, and the vestibular components as revealed by sensory analysis. Conclusions. Only under the static conditions are significantly poorer scores achieved when stimulation is applied. It may be that the explanation for any symptoms of dizziness lies precisely in the fact that they occur in supposedly noncritical situations, since, when the cochlear implant makes increased demands on the balance system, induced disturbances can be centrally suppressed.

Population dynamics and evolutionary history of the weedy vine Ipomoea hederacea in North America.

Science.gov (United States)

Campitelli, Brandon E; Stinchcombe, John R

2014-06-03

Disentangling the historical evolutionary processes that contribute to patterns of phenotypic and genetic variation is important for understanding contemporary patterns of both traits of interest and genetic diversity of a species. Ipomoea hederacea is a self-compatible species whose geographic origin is contested, and previous work suggests that although there are signals of adaptation (significant leaf shape and flowering time clines), no population structure or neutral genetic differentiation of I. hederacea populations was detected. Here, we use DNA sequence data to characterize patterns of genetic variation to establish a more detailed understanding of the current and historical processes that may have generated the patterns of genetic variation in this species. We resequenced ca. 5000 bp across 7 genes for 192 individuals taken from 24 populations in North America. Our results indicate that North American I. hederacea populations are ubiquitously genetically depauperate, and patterns of nucleotide diversity are consistent with population expansion. Contrary to previous findings, we discovered significant population subdivision and isolation-by-distance, but genetic structure was spatially discontinuous, potentially implicating long-distance dispersal. We further found significant genetic differentiation at sequenced loci but nearly fourfold stronger differentiation at the leaf shape locus, strengthening evidence that the leaf shape locus is under divergent selection. We propose that North American I. hederacea has experienced a recent founder event, and/or population dynamics are best described by a metapopulation model (high turnover and dispersal), leading to low genetic diversity and a patchy genetic distribution. Copyright © 2014 Campitelli and Stinchcombe.

Impact of population growth and population ethics on climate change mitigation policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Scovronick, Noah; Budolfson, Mark B; Dennig, Francis; Fleurbaey, Marc; Siebert, Asher; Socolow, Robert H; Spears, Dean; Wagner, Fabian

2017-11-14

Future population growth is uncertain and matters for climate policy: higher growth entails more emissions and means more people will be vulnerable to climate-related impacts. We show that how future population is valued importantly determines mitigation decisions. Using the Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy model, we explore two approaches to valuing population: a discounted version of total utilitarianism (TU), which considers total wellbeing and is standard in social cost of carbon dioxide (SCC) models, and of average utilitarianism (AU), which ignores population size and sums only each time period's discounted average wellbeing. Under both approaches, as population increases the SCC increases, but optimal peak temperature decreases. The effect is larger under TU, because it responds to the fact that a larger population means climate change hurts more people: for example, in 2025, assuming the United Nations (UN)-high rather than UN-low population scenario entails an increase in the SCC of 85% under TU vs. 5% under AU. The difference in the SCC between the two population scenarios under TU is comparable to commonly debated decisions regarding time discounting. Additionally, we estimate the avoided mitigation costs implied by plausible reductions in population growth, finding that large near-term savings ($billions annually) occur under TU; savings under AU emerge in the more distant future. These savings are larger than spending shortfalls for human development policies that may lower fertility. Finally, we show that whether lowering population growth entails overall improvements in wellbeing-rather than merely cost savings-again depends on the ethical approach to valuing population. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Experimental test of an eco-evolutionary dynamic feedback loop between evolution and population density in the green peach aphid.

Science.gov (United States)

Turcotte, Martin M; Reznick, David N; Daniel Hare, J

2013-05-01

An eco-evolutionary feedback loop is defined as the reciprocal impacts of ecology on evolutionary dynamics and evolution on ecological dynamics on contemporary timescales. We experimentally tested for an eco-evolutionary feedback loop in the green peach aphid, Myzus persicae, by manipulating initial densities and evolution. We found strong evidence that initial aphid density alters the rate and direction of evolution, as measured by changes in genotype frequencies through time. We also found that evolution of aphids within only 16 days, or approximately three generations, alters the rate of population growth and predicts density compared to nonevolving controls. The impact of evolution on population dynamics also depended on density. In one evolution treatment, evolution accelerated population growth by up to 10.3% at high initial density or reduced it by up to 6.4% at low initial density. The impact of evolution on population growth was as strong as or stronger than that caused by a threefold change in intraspecific density. We found that, taken together, ecological condition, here intraspecific density, alters evolutionary dynamics, which in turn alter concurrent population growth rate (ecological dynamics) in an eco-evolutionary feedback loop. Our results suggest that ignoring evolution in studies predicting population dynamics might lead us to over- or underestimate population density and that we cannot predict the evolutionary outcome within aphid populations without considering population size.

Low interannual precipitation has a greater negative effect than seedling herbivory on the population dynamics of a short-lived shrub, Schiedea obovata.

Science.gov (United States)

Bialic-Murphy, Lalasia; Gaoue, Orou G

2018-01-01

Climate projections forecast more extreme interannual climate variability over time, with an increase in the severity and duration of extreme drought and rainfall events. Based on bioclimatic envelope models, it is projected that changing precipitation patterns will drastically alter the spatial distributions and density of plants and be a primary driver of biodiversity loss. However, many other underlying mechanisms can impact plant vital rates (i.e., survival, growth, and reproduction) and population dynamics. In this study, we developed a size-dependent integral projection model (IPM) to evaluate how interannual precipitation and mollusk herbivory influence the dynamics of a Hawaii endemic short-lived shrub, Schiedea obovata (Caryophyllaceae). Assessing how wet season precipitation effects population dynamics it critical, as it is the timeframe when most of the foliar growth occurs, plants flower and fruit, and seedlings establish. Temporal variation in wet season precipitation had a greater effect than mollusk herbivory on S . obovata population growth rate λ, and the impact of interannual precipitation on vital rates shifted across plant ontogeny. Furthermore, wet season precipitation influenced multiple vital rates in contrasting ways and the effect of precipitation on the survival of larger vegetative and reproductively mature individuals contributed the most to variation in the population growth rate. Among all combination of wet season precipitation and herbivory intensities, the only scenario that led to a growing population was when high wet precipitation was associated with low herbivory. Our study highlights the importance of evaluating how abiotic factors and plant-consumer interactions influence an organism across its life cycle to fully understand the underpinning mechanisms that structure its spatial and temporal distribution and abundance. Our results also illustrate that for short-lived species, like S. obovata , seedling herbivory can have

A novel test rig to investigate under-platform damper dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Botto, Daniele; Umer, Muhammad

2018-02-01

In the field of turbomachinery, vibration amplitude is often reduced by dissipating the kinetic energy of the blades with devices that utilize dry friction. Under-platform dampers, for example, are often placed in the underside of two consecutive turbine blades. Dampers are kept in contact with the under-platform of the respective blades by means of the centrifugal force. If the damper is well designed, vibration of blades instigate a relative motion between the under-platform and the damper. A friction force, that is a non-conservative force, arises in the contact and partly dissipates the vibration energy. Several contact models are available in the literature to simulate the contact between the damper and the under-platform. However, the actual dynamics of the blade-damper interaction have not fully understood yet. Several test rigs have been previously developed to experimentally investigate the performance of under-platform dampers. The majority of these experimental setups aim to evaluate the overall damper efficiency in terms of reduction in response amplitude of the blade for a given exciting force that simulates the aerodynamic loads. Unfortunately, the experimental data acquired on the blade dynamics do not provide enough information to understand the damper dynamics. Therefore, the uncertainty on the damper behavior remains a big issue. In this work, a novel experimental test rig has been developed to extensively investigate the damper dynamic behavior. A single replaceable blade is clamped in the rig with a specific clamping device. With this device the blade root is pressed against a groove machined in the test rig. The pushing force is controllable and measurable, to better simulate the actual centrifugal load acting on the blade. Two dampers, one on each side of the blade, are in contact with the blade under-platforms and with platforms on force measuring supports. These supports have been specifically designed to measure the contact forces on the

CONNECTION BETWEEN DYNAMICALLY DERIVED INITIAL MASS FUNCTION NORMALIZATION AND STELLAR POPULATION PARAMETERS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McDermid, Richard M.; Cappellari, Michele; Bayet, Estelle; Bureau, Martin; Davies, Roger L.; Alatalo, Katherine; Blitz, Leo; Bois, Maxime; Bournaud, Frédéric; Duc, Pierre-Alain; Crocker, Alison F.; Davis, Timothy A.; De Zeeuw, P. T.; Emsellem, Eric; Kuntschner, Harald; Khochfar, Sadegh; Krajnović, Davor; Morganti, Raffaella; Oosterloo, Tom; Naab, Thorsten

2014-01-01

We report on empirical trends between the dynamically determined stellar initial mass function (IMF) and stellar population properties for a complete, volume-limited sample of 260 early-type galaxies from the ATLAS 3D project. We study trends between our dynamically derived IMF normalization α dyn ≡ (M/L) stars /(M/L) Salp and absorption line strengths, and interpret these via single stellar population-equivalent ages, abundance ratios (measured as [α/Fe]), and total metallicity, [Z/H]. We find that old and alpha-enhanced galaxies tend to have on average heavier (Salpeter-like) mass normalization of the IMF, but stellar population does not appear to be a good predictor of the IMF, with a large range of α dyn at a given population parameter. As a result, we find weak α dyn -[α/Fe] and α dyn –Age correlations and no significant α dyn –[Z/H] correlation. The observed trends appear significantly weaker than those reported in studies that measure the IMF normalization via the low-mass star demographics inferred through stellar spectral analysis

Connection between Dynamically Derived Initial Mass Function Normalization and Stellar Population Parameters

Science.gov (United States)

McDermid, Richard M.; Cappellari, Michele; Alatalo, Katherine; Bayet, Estelle; Blitz, Leo; Bois, Maxime; Bournaud, Frédéric; Bureau, Martin; Crocker, Alison F.; Davies, Roger L.; Davis, Timothy A.; de Zeeuw, P. T.; Duc, Pierre-Alain; Emsellem, Eric; Khochfar, Sadegh; Krajnović, Davor; Kuntschner, Harald; Morganti, Raffaella; Naab, Thorsten; Oosterloo, Tom; Sarzi, Marc; Scott, Nicholas; Serra, Paolo; Weijmans, Anne-Marie; Young, Lisa M.

2014-09-01

We report on empirical trends between the dynamically determined stellar initial mass function (IMF) and stellar population properties for a complete, volume-limited sample of 260 early-type galaxies from the ATLAS3D project. We study trends between our dynamically derived IMF normalization αdyn ≡ (M/L)stars/(M/L)Salp and absorption line strengths, and interpret these via single stellar population-equivalent ages, abundance ratios (measured as [α/Fe]), and total metallicity, [Z/H]. We find that old and alpha-enhanced galaxies tend to have on average heavier (Salpeter-like) mass normalization of the IMF, but stellar population does not appear to be a good predictor of the IMF, with a large range of αdyn at a given population parameter. As a result, we find weak αdyn-[α/Fe] and αdyn -Age correlations and no significant αdyn -[Z/H] correlation. The observed trends appear significantly weaker than those reported in studies that measure the IMF normalization via the low-mass star demographics inferred through stellar spectral analysis.

Population dynamics of Greater Scaup breeding on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

Science.gov (United States)

Flint, Paul L.; Grand, J. Barry; Fondell, Thomas F.; Morse, Julie A.

2006-01-01

Populations of greater scaup (Aythya marila) remained relatively stable during a period when populations of lesser scaup (A. affinis) have declined from historic levels. To assist in describing these differences in population trends, from 1991 through 2000, we studied the survival, nesting ecology, and productivity of greater scaup on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (Y-K Delta), Alaska, to develop a model of population dynamics. We located nests, radio-marked females for renesting studies, estimated duckling survival, and leg-banded females to examine nest site fidelity and annual survival.

Application of computer picture processing to dynamic strain measurement under electromagnetic field

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yagawa, G.; Soneda, N.

1987-01-01

For the structural design of fusion reactors, it is very important to ensure the structural integrity of components under various dynamic loading conditions due to a solid-electromagnetic field interaction, an earthquake, MHD effects and so on. As one of the experimental approaches to assess the dynamic fracture, we consider the strain measurement near a crack tip under a transient electromagnetic field, which in general involves several experimental difficulties. The authors have developed a strain measurement method using a picture processing technique. In this method, locations of marks printed on a surface of specimen are determined by the picture processing. The displacement field is interpolated using the mark displacements and finite elements. Finally the strain distribution is calculated by differentiating the displacement field. In the present study, the method is improved and automated apply to the measurement of dynamic strain distribution under an electromagnetic field. Then the effects of dynamic loading on the strain distribution are investigated by comparing the dynamic results with the static ones. (orig./GL)

Long-term population dynamics of a managed burrowing owl colony

Science.gov (United States)

Barclay, John H.; Korfanta, Nicole M.; Kauffman, Matthew J.

2011-01-01

We analyzed the population dynamics of a burrowing owl (Athene cunicularia) colony at Mineta San Jose International Airport in San Jose, California, USA from 1990-2007. This colony was managed by using artificial burrows to reduce the occurrence of nesting owls along runways and within major airport improvement projects during the study period. We estimated annual reproduction in natural and artificial burrows and age-specific survival rates with mark-recapture techniques, and we estimated the relative contribution of these vital rates to population dynamics using a life table response experiment. The breeding colony showed 2 distinct periods of change: high population growth from 7 nesting pairs in 1991 to 40 pairs in 2002 and population decline to 17 pairs in 2007. Reproduction was highly variable: annual nesting success (pairs that raised =1 young) averaged 79% and ranged from 36% to 100%, whereas fecundity averaged 3.36 juveniles/pair and ranged from 1.43 juveniles/pair to 4.54 juveniles/pair. We estimated annual adult survival at 0.710 during the period of colony increase from 1996 to 2001 and 0.465 during decline from 2002 to 2007, but there was no change in annual survival of juveniles between the 2 time periods. Long-term population growth rate (lambda) estimated from average vital rates was lambdaa=1.072 with lambdai=1.288 during colony increase and lambdad=0.921 (DELTA lambda=0.368) during decline. A life table response experiment showed that change in adult survival rate during increasing and declining phases explained more than twice the variation in growth rate than other vital rates. Our findings suggest that management and conservation of declining burrowing owl populations should address factors that influence adult survival.

Effect of temperature on the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti

Science.gov (United States)

Yusoff, Nuraini; Tokachil, Mohd Najir

2015-10-01

Aedes aegypti is one of the main vectors in the transmission of dengue fever. Its abundance may cause the spread of the disease to be more intense. In the study of its biological life cycle, temperature was found to increase the development rate of each stage of this species and thus, accelerate the process of the development from egg to adult. In this paper, a Lefkovitch matrix model will be used to study the stage-structured population dynamics of Aedes aegypti. In constructing the transition matrix, temperature will be taken into account. As a case study, temperature recorded at the Subang Meteorological Station for year 2006 until 2010 will be used. Population dynamics of Aedes aegypti at maximum, average and minimum temperature for each year will be simulated and compared. It is expected that the higher the temperature, the faster the mosquito will breed. The result will be compared to the number of dengue fever incidences to see their relationship.

Dynamics of a population of oscillatory and excitable elements.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Keeffe, Kevin P; Strogatz, Steven H

2016-06-01

We analyze a variant of a model proposed by Kuramoto, Shinomoto, and Sakaguchi for a large population of coupled oscillatory and excitable elements. Using the Ott-Antonsen ansatz, we reduce the behavior of the population to a two-dimensional dynamical system with three parameters. We present the stability diagram and calculate several of its bifurcation curves analytically, for both excitatory and inhibitory coupling. Our main result is that when the coupling function is broad, the system can display bistability between steady states of constant high and low activity, whereas when the coupling function is narrow and inhibitory, one of the states in the bistable regime can show persistent pulsations in activity.

Radiation belt seed population and its association with the relativistic electron dynamics: A statistical study: Radiation Belt Seed Population

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tang, C. L.; Wang, Y. X.; Ni, B.; Zhang, J.-C.

2017-01-01

Using the Van Allen Probes data, we study the radiation belt seed population and it associated with the relativistic electron dynamics during 74 geomagnetic storm events. Based on the flux changes of 1 MeV electrons before and after the storm peak, these storm events are divided into two groups of “non-preconditioned” and “preconditioned”. The statistical study shows that the storm intensity is of significant importance for the distribution of the seed population (336 keV electrons) in the outer radiation belt. However, substorm intensity can also be important to the evolution of the seed population for some geomagnetic storm events. For non-preconditioned storm events, the correlation between the peak fluxes and their L-shell locations of the seed population and relativistic electrons (592 keV, 1.0 MeV, 1.8 MeV, and 2.1 MeV) is consistent with the energy-dependent dynamic processes in the outer radiation belt. For preconditioned storm events, the correlation between the features of the seed population and relativistic electrons is not fully consistent with the energy-dependent processes. It is suggested that the good correlation between the radiation belt seed population and ≤1.0 MeV electrons contributes to the prediction of the evolution of ≤1.0 MeV electrons in the Earth’s outer radiation belt during periods of geomagnetic storms.

Dynamics of genome rearrangement in bacterial populations.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aaron E Darling

2008-07-01

represent the first characterization of genome arrangement evolution in a bacterial population evolving outside laboratory conditions. Insight into the process of genomic rearrangement may further the understanding of pathogen population dynamics and selection on the architecture of circular bacterial chromosomes.

Scaling up population dynamic processes in a ladybird–aphid

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Houdková, Kateřina; Kindlmann, Pavel

2006-01-01

Roč. 48, - (2006), s. 323-332 ISSN 1438-3896 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GEDIV/06/E013; GA MŠk(CZ) LC06073; GA AV ČR(CZ) IAA6087301; GA ČR(CZ) GD206/03/H034 Keywords : Aphids * Egg window * Ladybirds * Metapopulation * Model * Population dynamics Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 1.534, year: 2006

Population dynamics of three songbird species in a nestbox population in Central Europe show effects of density, climate and competitive interactions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Smallegange, I.M.; van der Meer, J.; Fiedler, W.

2011-01-01

Unravelling the contributions of density-dependent and density-independent factors in determining species population dynamics is a challenge, especially if the two factors interact. One approach is to apply stochastic population models to long-term data, yet few studies have included interactions

Studies on population dynamic of diamondback moth in the field

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Malakrong, A.; Limohpasmanee, W.; Keawchoung, P.; Kodcharint, P.

1994-01-01

The population dynamic of diamondback moth larva in the field was studied at Khao Khor High-land Agricultural Research Station during August-October 1993 and February-April 1994. The distribution patterns of diamondback moth larva was clumped when population was low and would change to be random when population was high. The maximun and minimum number of diamondback moth in the field were 71,203 and 2,732 larva/rai during March and September. Temperature, rainfall and age of cabbage were slightly relative with number of larva (r=-0.2891, p=0.30; r=-0.2816, p=0.31 and r=0.2931, p=0.29 respectively) but relative humidity has no effect on number of larva

Dynamic control of a bistable wing under aerodynamic loading

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bilgen, Onur; Arrieta, Andres F; Friswell, Michael I; Hagedorn, Peter

2013-01-01

The aerodynamic evaluation of a dynamic control technique applied to a bistable unsymmetrical cross-ply composite plate with surface bonded piezoelectric actuators is presented. The plate is clamped on one end to form a low-aspect-ratio wing. A previously proposed dynamic control method, utilizing bending resonance in different stable equilibrium positions, is used to induce snap-through between the two equilibrium states. Compared to quasi-static actuation, driving the bistable plate near resonance using surface bonded piezoelectric materials requires, theoretically, a lower peak excitation voltage to achieve snap-through. First, a set of extensive wind tunnel experiments are conducted on the passive bistable wing to understand the change in the dynamic behavior under various aerodynamic conditions. The passive wing demonstrated sufficient bending stiffness to sustain its shape under aerodynamic loading while preserving the desired bistable behavior. Next, by the use of the resonant control technique, the plate is turned into an effectively monostable structure, or alternatively, both stable equilibrium positions can be reached actively from the other stable equilibrium. Dynamic forward and reverse snap-through is demonstrated in the wind tunnel which shows both the effectiveness of the piezoelectric actuation as well as the load carrying capability of both states of the bistable wing. (paper)

Estimation of population mean under systematic sampling

Science.gov (United States)

Noor-ul-amin, Muhammad; Javaid, Amjad

2017-11-01

In this study we propose a generalized ratio estimator under non-response for systematic random sampling. We also generate a class of estimators through special cases of generalized estimator using different combinations of coefficients of correlation, kurtosis and variation. The mean square errors and mathematical conditions are also derived to prove the efficiency of proposed estimators. Numerical illustration is included using three populations to support the results.

An open-population hierarchical distance sampling model

Science.gov (United States)

Sollmann, Rachel; Beth Gardner,; Richard B Chandler,; Royle, J. Andrew; T Scott Sillett,

2015-01-01

Modeling population dynamics while accounting for imperfect detection is essential to monitoring programs. Distance sampling allows estimating population size while accounting for imperfect detection, but existing methods do not allow for direct estimation of demographic parameters. We develop a model that uses temporal correlation in abundance arising from underlying population dynamics to estimate demographic parameters from repeated distance sampling surveys. Using a simulation study motivated by designing a monitoring program for island scrub-jays (Aphelocoma insularis), we investigated the power of this model to detect population trends. We generated temporally autocorrelated abundance and distance sampling data over six surveys, using population rates of change of 0.95 and 0.90. We fit the data generating Markovian model and a mis-specified model with a log-linear time effect on abundance, and derived post hoc trend estimates from a model estimating abundance for each survey separately. We performed these analyses for varying number of survey points. Power to detect population changes was consistently greater under the Markov model than under the alternatives, particularly for reduced numbers of survey points. The model can readily be extended to more complex demographic processes than considered in our simulations. This novel framework can be widely adopted for wildlife population monitoring.

An open-population hierarchical distance sampling model.

Science.gov (United States)

Sollmann, Rahel; Gardner, Beth; Chandler, Richard B; Royle, J Andrew; Sillett, T Scott

2015-02-01

Modeling population dynamics while accounting for imperfect detection is essential to monitoring programs. Distance sampling allows estimating population size while accounting for imperfect detection, but existing methods do not allow for estimation of demographic parameters. We develop a model that uses temporal correlation in abundance arising from underlying population dynamics to estimate demographic parameters from repeated distance sampling surveys. Using a simulation study motivated by designing a monitoring program for Island Scrub-Jays (Aphelocoma insularis), we investigated the power of this model to detect population trends. We generated temporally autocorrelated abundance and distance sampling data over six surveys, using population rates of change of 0.95 and 0.90. We fit the data generating Markovian model and a mis-specified model with a log-linear time effect on abundance, and derived post hoc trend estimates from a model estimating abundance for each survey separately. We performed these analyses for varying numbers of survey points. Power to detect population changes was consistently greater under the Markov model than under the alternatives, particularly for reduced numbers of survey points. The model can readily be extended to more complex demographic processes than considered in our simulations. This novel framework can be widely adopted for wildlife population monitoring.

Linking animal population dynamics to alterations in foraging behaviour

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nabe-Nielsen, Jacob; Sibly, Richard; Tougaard, Jakob

Background/Question/Methods The survival of animal populations is strongly influenced by the individuals’ ability to forage efficiently, yet there are few studies of how populations respond when disturbances cause animals to deviate from their natural foraging behavior. Animals that respond...... that are increasingly exposed to noise from ships, wind turbines, etc. In the present study we investigate how the dynamics of the harbor porpoise population (Phocoena phocoena) in the inner Danish waters is influenced by disturbances using an agent- based simulation model. In the model animal movement, and hence...... the animals’ ability to forage efficiently and to sustain their energy intake, is influenced by noise emitted from wind turbines and ships. The energy levels in turn affect their survival. The fine-scale movements of the simulated animals was governed by a spatial memory, which allowed the model to produce...

Influence of habitat quality, population size, patch size, and connectivity on patch-occupancy dynamics of the middle spotted woodpecker.

Science.gov (United States)

Robles, Hugo; Ciudad, Carlos

2012-04-01

Despite extensive research on the effects of habitat fragmentation, the ecological mechanisms underlying colonization and extinction processes are poorly known, but knowledge of these mechanisms is essential to understanding the distribution and persistence of populations in fragmented habitats. We examined these mechanisms through multiseason occupancy models that elucidated patch-occupancy dynamics of Middle Spotted Woodpeckers (Dendrocopos medius) in northwestern Spain. The number of occupied patches was relatively stable from 2000 to 2010 (15-24% of 101 patches occupied every year) because extinction was balanced by recolonization. Larger and higher quality patches (i.e., higher density of oaks >37 cm dbh [diameter at breast height]) were more likely to be occupied. Habitat quality (i.e., density of large oaks) explained more variation in patch colonization and extinction than did patch size and connectivity, which were both weakly associated with probabilities of turnover. Patches of higher quality were more likely to be colonized than patches of lower quality. Populations in high-quality patches were less likely to become extinct. In addition, extinction in a patch was strongly associated with local population size but not with patch size, which means the latter may not be a good surrogate of population size in assessments of extinction probability. Our results suggest that habitat quality may be a primary driver of patch-occupancy dynamics and may increase the accuracy of models of population survival. We encourage comparisons of competing models that assess occupancy, colonization, and extinction probabilities in a single analytical framework (e.g., dynamic occupancy models) so as to shed light on the association of habitat quality and patch geometry with colonization and extinction processes in different settings and species. ©2012 Society for Conservation Biology.

Turkey’s Population Dynamics As A Candidate Country For EU Membership

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Harun Uçak

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Literally, it has been accepted that one of the major obstacles to Turkey’s EU membership is in population term. There has not been any enlargement process as large as Turkey’s population as a single state in EU history before. The enlargement in 2004 which includes 10 states involved 74 million people as whole member states while Turkey’s population is 72 million inhabitants in 2007 data which is only lower than Germany’s population in all EU member states. Thus, Turkey's accession would be different from previous enlargements because of the combined impact of high population. This study compares the population dynamics, working conditions, minimum wage rates and main macroeconomic indicators between Turkey and EU member states. Turkey has young generations compared to EU countries. In the comparison of age groups proportion in total population, 0-19 age group %21,9 in EU 27 and %36,5 in Turkey, 20-39 age group is %28 in EU 27 and %34,3 in Turkey, 40-59 age group is %27,9 in EU and %20,9 in Turkey, 60 and above age group is %22,1 in EU and %9,5 in Turkey. Thus, population dynamics of Turkey could make a contribution to offsetting the ageing of EU 27 societies if the membership would occur in the future. However, minimum wage rates in Turkey are lower than many EU member states but generally higher than EU member states located in Central and Eastern Europe. Thus, immigration possibilities from Turkey can be expected to Western European Countries, but not the same direction to Central and Eastern Europe Countries. Furthermore, the process in macroeconomic indicators will be a determinant in immigration expectations while Turkey’s GDP has been grown faster than EU level recently.

Heat exposure in cities: combining the dynamics of temperature and population

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, L.; Wilhelmi, O.; Uejio, C. K.

2017-12-01

Assessment of human exposure to extreme heat requires the distributions of temperature and population. However, both variables are dynamic, thus presenting many challenges in capturing temperature and population patterns spatially and over time in an urban context. This study aims to improve the understanding of spatiotemporal patterns of urban population exposure to heat, taking Chicago, USA as an example. We estimate the hourly, geographically variable, population distribution considering commute of workers and students in a regular weekday and analyze the diurnal air temperature patterns during different meteorological conditions from satellite observations. The results show a relatively larger temperature increase in less urbanized areas during extreme heat events (EHEs), resulting in a spatially homogeneous temperature distribution over Chicago Metropolitan area. A lake cooling effect is weaker during EHEs. Population dynamics due to daily commute determine higher population density in more urbanized areas during daytime. The city-wide analysis reveals that the exposure is more sensitive to the nighttime temperature increases, and EHEs enhance this sensitivity. The high exposure hotspots are identified at the northwest Chicago, Cicero and Oak Park areas, where the influence from Lake Michigan is weakened, while the spatial extent of high outdoor exposure areas varies diurnally. This study's findings have potential to better inform general heat mitigation strategies during hot summer months and facilitate emergency response during EHEs. Availability of remotely-sensed temperature observations as well as the workers and students commute-adjusted population data allows for the adoption of this study's methodology in other major metropolitan areas. A better understanding of space-time patterns of urban population's exposure to heat will further enable local decision makers to mitigate extreme heat health risks and develop more targeted heat preparedness and

State-dependent neutral delay equations from population dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

Barbarossa, M V; Hadeler, K P; Kuttler, C

2014-10-01

A novel class of state-dependent delay equations is derived from the balance laws of age-structured population dynamics, assuming that birth rates and death rates, as functions of age, are piece-wise constant and that the length of the juvenile phase depends on the total adult population size. The resulting class of equations includes also neutral delay equations. All these equations are very different from the standard delay equations with state-dependent delay since the balance laws require non-linear correction factors. These equations can be written as systems for two variables consisting of an ordinary differential equation (ODE) and a generalized shift, a form suitable for numerical calculations. It is shown that the neutral equation (and the corresponding ODE--shift system) is a limiting case of a system of two standard delay equations.

Ciliates and the rare biosphere-community ecology and population dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

Weisse, Thomas

2014-01-01

Application of deep sequencing technologies to environmental samples and some detailed morphological studies suggest that there is a vast, yet unexplored rare ciliate biosphere, tentatively defined in terms of operational taxonomic units. However, very few studies complemented molecular and phylogenetic data with morphological and ecological descriptions of the species inventory. This is mainly because the sampling effort increases strongly with decreasing species abundance. In spite of this limited knowledge, it is clear that species that are rare under certain environmental conditions (temporal rare biosphere) may become abundant when the physical, chemical, and biological variables of their habitat change. Furthermore, some species may always be present in low numbers if their dispersal rates are exceedingly high (accidental rare biosphere). An intriguing question is whether there are some species that are always rare, i.e., in every suitable environment. This permanent rare biosphere is conceptually different from the temporal rare biosphere. This review characterizes typical aquatic habitats of the rare ciliate biosphere, portrays different scenarios under which some or even many species may be permanently rare (background fauna), and identifies some fundamental questions that need to be addressed to achieve a better understanding of the population dynamics of the rare ciliate biosphere. © 2014 The Authors The Journal of Eukaryotic Microbiology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Society of Protistologists.

The demography of climate-driven and density-regulated population dynamics in a perennial plant

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dahlgren, Johan; Bengstsson, Karin; Ehrlén, Johan

2016-01-01

Identifying the internal and external drivers of population dynamics is a key objective in ecology, currently accentuated by the need to forecast the effects of climate change on species distributions and abundances. The interplay between environmental and density effects is one particularly...... important aspect of such forecasts. We examined the simultaneous impact of climate and intraspecific density on vital rates of the dwarf shrub Fumana procumbens over 20 yr, using generalized additive mixed models. We then analyzed effects on population dynamics using integral projection models...... to be driven solely by the environment can overestimate extinction risks if there is density dependence. We conclude that density regulation can dampen effects of climate change on Fumana population size, and discuss the need to quantify density dependence in predictions of population responses...

Population dynamics of Trichuris suis in trickle-infected pigs.

Science.gov (United States)

Nejsum, P; Thamsborg, S M; Petersen, H H; Kringel, H; Fredholm, M; Roepstorff, A

2009-05-01

The population dynamics of Trichuris suis in pigs was studied during long-term experimental infections. Twenty-three 10-week-old pigs were inoculated with 5 T. suis eggs/kg/day. Seven, 8, and 8 pigs were necropsied at weeks 4, 8, and 14 post-start of infection (p.i.), respectively. The median numbers of worms in the colon were 538 (min-max: 277-618), 332 (14-1140) and 0 (0-4) at 4, 8, and 14 weeks p.i. respectively, suggesting an increased aggregation of the worms with time and acquisition of nearly sterile immunity. The serum levels of T. suis specific antibodies (IgG1, IgG2 and IgA) peaked at week 8 p.i. By week 14 p.i. the IgG2 and IgA antibody levels remained significantly elevated above the level of week 0. The population dynamics of T. suis trickle infections in pigs is discussed with focus on interpretation of diagnostic and epidemiological data of pigs, the use of pigs as a model for human Trichuris trichiura infections and the novel approach of using T. suis eggs in the treatment of patients with inflammatory bowel disease.

Dynamics of weakly inhomogeneous oscillator populations: perturbation theory on top of Watanabe-Strogatz integrability

Science.gov (United States)

Vlasov, Vladimir; Rosenblum, Michael; Pikovsky, Arkady

2016-08-01

As has been shown by Watanabe and Strogatz (WS) (1993 Phys. Rev. Lett. 70 2391), a population of identical phase oscillators, sine-coupled to a common field, is a partially integrable system: for any ensemble size its dynamics reduce to equations for three collective variables. Here we develop a perturbation approach for weakly nonidentical ensembles. We calculate corrections to the WS dynamics for two types of perturbations: those due to a distribution of natural frequencies and of forcing terms, and those due to small white noise. We demonstrate that in both cases, the complex mean field for which the dynamical equations are written is close to the Kuramoto order parameter, up to the leading order in the perturbation. This supports the validity of the dynamical reduction suggested by Ott and Antonsen (2008 Chaos 18 037113) for weakly inhomogeneous populations.

Dynamics of weakly inhomogeneous oscillator populations: perturbation theory on top of Watanabe–Strogatz integrability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vlasov, Vladimir; Rosenblum, Michael; Pikovsky, Arkady

2016-01-01

As has been shown by Watanabe and Strogatz (WS) (1993 Phys. Rev. Lett. 70 2391), a population of identical phase oscillators, sine-coupled to a common field, is a partially integrable system: for any ensemble size its dynamics reduce to equations for three collective variables. Here we develop a perturbation approach for weakly nonidentical ensembles. We calculate corrections to the WS dynamics for two types of perturbations: those due to a distribution of natural frequencies and of forcing terms, and those due to small white noise. We demonstrate that in both cases, the complex mean field for which the dynamical equations are written is close to the Kuramoto order parameter, up to the leading order in the perturbation. This supports the validity of the dynamical reduction suggested by Ott and Antonsen (2008 Chaos 18 037113) for weakly inhomogeneous populations. (letter)

Dynamics of entanglement under decoherence in noninertial frames

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shi Jia-Dong; Wu Tao; Song Xue-Ke; Ye Liu

2014-01-01

In this paper, we investigate the entanglement dynamics of a two-qubit entangled state coupled with its noisy environment, and plan to utilize weak measurement and quantum reversal measurement to study the entanglement dynamics under different decoherence channels in noninertial frames. Through the calculations and analyses, it is shown that the weak measurement can prevent entanglement from coupling to the amplitude damping channel, while the system is under the phase damping and flip channels. This protection protocol cannot prevent entanglement but will accelerate the death of entanglement. In addition, if the system is in the noninertial reference frame, then the effect of weak measurement will be weakened for the amplitude damping channel. Nevertheless, for other decoherence channels, the Unruh effect does not affect the quantum weak measurement, the only exception is that the maximum value of entanglement is reduced to √2/2 of the original value in the inertial frames. (general)

Population dynamics of the epiphytic bromeliad Tillandsia butzii in cloud forest

Science.gov (United States)

Toledo-Aceves, Tarin; Hernández-Apolinar, Mariana

2016-02-01

Epiphytes are a major component of tropical montane cloud forests. Over-exploitation and forest loss and degradation affect remnant populations. In this study, we analysed the population dynamics of the epiphytic bromeliad Tillandsia butzii over a 2-y period in a tropical montane cloud forest fragment in southern Mexico. Matrix analysis revealed that the T. butzii population is likely to be stable at the study site. On average the λ value did not differ significantly from unity: λ (95% confidence interval) = 0.978 (0.936-1.001). λ was highly influenced by stasis, to a lesser extent by growth and only slightly by fecundity. Overall, adult plant stasis and phalanx growth habit played a fundamental role in population maintenance. T. butzii tolerance to xeric conditions may contribute to population stability in the studied region.

An examination of the population dynamics of syngnathid fishes within Tampa Bay, Florida, USA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Heather D. MASONJONES, Emily ROSE, Lori Benson McRAE,Danielle L. DIXSON

2010-02-01

Full Text Available Seagrass ecosystems worldwide have been declining, leading to a decrease in associated fish populations, especially those with low mobility such as syngnathids (pipefish and seahorses. This two-year pilot study investigated seasonal patterns in density, growth, site fidelity, and population dynamics of Tampa Bay (FL syngnathid fishes at a site adjacent to two marinas under construction. Using a modified mark-recapture technique, fish were collected periodically from three closely located sites that varied in seagrass species (Thalassia spp., Syringodium spp., and mixed-grass sites and their distance from open water, but had consistent physical/chemical environmental characteristics. Fish were marked, photographed for body size and gender measurements, and released the same day at the capture site. Of the 5695 individuals surveyed, 49 individuals were recaptured, indicating a large, flexible population. Population density peaks were observed in July of both years, with low densities in late winter and late summer. Spatially, syngnathid densities were highest closest to the mouth of the bay and lowest near the shoreline. Seven species of syngnathid fishes were observed, and species-specific patterns of seagrass use emerged during the study. However, only two species, Syngnathus scovelli and Hippocampus zosterae, were observed at high frequencies. For these two species, body size decreased across the study period, but while S. scovelli’s population density decreased, H. zosterae’s increased. Across six of the seven species, population size declined over the course of this preliminary study; however, seasonal shifts were impossible to distinguish from potential anthropogenic effects of construction [Current Zoology 56 (1: 118–133, 2010].

Nonlinearities Lead to Qualitative Differences in Population Dynamics of Predator-Prey Systems

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Ameixa, Olga; Messelink, G. J.; Kindlmann, Pavel

2013-01-01

Roč. 8, č. 4 (2013), e62530-e62530 E-ISSN 1932-6203 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) ED1.1.00/02.0073; GA ČR(CZ) GEVOL/11/E036 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : nonlinear system * population density * population dynamics * predator * predator prey interaction * qualitative analysis Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 3.534, year: 2013

Do farming practices influence population dynamics of rodents?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Massawe, A W; Rwamugira, W; Leirs, Herwig

2007-01-01

A capture-mark-recapture study was conducted in crop fields in Morogoro, Tanzania, to investigate how the population dynamics of multimammate field rats, Mastomys natalensis, was influenced by the commonly practised land preparation methods and cropping systems. Two land preparation methods (trac...... practices. In maize fields in Tanzania, the crop is most susceptible to damage by M. natalensis in the first 2 weeks after planting, and therefore, lower densities of rodents will result into lower crop damage in tractor ploughed fields....

On the stochastic approach to marine population dynamics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eduardo Ferrandis

2007-03-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to deepen and structure the statistical basis of marine population dynamics. The starting point is the correspondence between the concepts of mortality, survival and lifetime distribution. This is the kernel of the possibilities that survival analysis techniques offer to marine population dynamics. A rigorous definition of survival and mortality based on their properties and their probabilistic versions is briefly presented. Some well established models for lifetime distribution, which generalise the usual simple exponential distribution, might be used with their corresponding survivals and mortalities. A critical review of some published models is also made, including original models proposed in the way opened by Caddy (1991 and Sparholt (1990, which allow for a continuously decreasing natural mortality. Considering these elements, the pure death process dealt with in the literature is used as a theoretical basis for the evolution of a marine cohort. The elaboration of this process is based on Chiang´s study of the probability distribution of the life table (Chiang, 1960 and provides specific structured models for stock evolution as a Markovian process. These models may introduce new ideas in the line of thinking developed by Gudmundsson (1987 and Sampson (1990 in order to model the evolution of a marine cohort by stochastic processes. The suitable approximation of these processes by means of Gaussian processes may allow theoretical and computational multivariate Gaussian analysis to be applied to the probabilistic treatment of fisheries issues. As a consequence, the necessary catch equation appears as a stochastic integral with respect to the mentioned Markovian process of the stock. The solution of this equation is available when the mortalities are proportional, hence the use of the proportional hazards model (Cox, 1959. The assumption of these proportional mortalities leads naturally to the construction of a

Numerical solution of dynamic equilibrium models under Poisson uncertainty

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Posch, Olaf; Trimborn, Timo

2013-01-01

We propose a simple and powerful numerical algorithm to compute the transition process in continuous-time dynamic equilibrium models with rare events. In this paper we transform the dynamic system of stochastic differential equations into a system of functional differential equations of the retar...... solution to Lucas' endogenous growth model under Poisson uncertainty are used to compute the exact numerical error. We show how (potential) catastrophic events such as rare natural disasters substantially affect the economic decisions of households....

Dynamic of age structure and the number of population in Ozersk and affecting factors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Panchenko, O.; Rtischeva, M.

2000-01-01

The aim of this work was an evaluation of the dynamics of age structure and population for the city of Ozyorsk, based in connection with creation of the nuclear plant Mayak, the 'first-born' of the Russian atomic industry. The obtained results indicate that since 1950 demographic processes in Ozyorsk were more favorable, in spite of fact that it was in this period workers of Mayak nuclear plant and population as a whole, got comparatively greater radiation doses than in the following years. However, dynamics the number of population has an unfavorable trend to reduce, connected with sharp worsening of social-economic situation in the town as a whole, as a result of the economic reforms in the country. Reduction of the number of population in the town is expressed by the negative natural growth and by reducing migration processes, which resulted in sharp decrease of the general growth of population, and in its stopping in 1998. (authors)

Fundamental Dynamical Modes Underlying Human Brain Synchronization

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Catalina Alvarado-Rojas

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Little is known about the long-term dynamics of widely interacting cortical and subcortical networks during the wake-sleep cycle. Using large-scale intracranial recordings of epileptic patients during seizure-free periods, we investigated local- and long-range synchronization between multiple brain regions over several days. For such high-dimensional data, summary information is required for understanding and modelling the underlying dynamics. Here, we suggest that a compact yet useful representation is given by a state space based on the first principal components. Using this representation, we report, with a remarkable similarity across the patients with different locations of electrode placement, that the seemingly complex patterns of brain synchrony during the wake-sleep cycle can be represented by a small number of characteristic dynamic modes. In this space, transitions between behavioral states occur through specific trajectories from one mode to another. These findings suggest that, at a coarse level of temporal resolution, the different brain states are correlated with several dominant synchrony patterns which are successively activated across wake-sleep states.

Application of homotopy-perturbation method to nonlinear population dynamics models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chowdhury, M.S.H.; Hashim, I.; Abdulaziz, O.

2007-01-01

In this Letter, the homotopy-perturbation method (HPM) is employed to derive approximate series solutions of nonlinear population dynamics models. The nonlinear models considered are the multispecies Lotka-Volterra equations. The accuracy of this method is examined by comparison with the available exact and the fourth-order Runge-Kutta method (RK4)

CONNECTION BETWEEN DYNAMICALLY DERIVED INITIAL MASS FUNCTION NORMALIZATION AND STELLAR POPULATION PARAMETERS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

McDermid, Richard M. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Macquarie University, Sydney NSW 2109 (Australia); Cappellari, Michele; Bayet, Estelle; Bureau, Martin; Davies, Roger L. [Sub-Department of Astrophysics, Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Denys Wilkinson Building, Keble Road, Oxford, OX1 3RH (United Kingdom); Alatalo, Katherine [Infrared Processing and Analysis Center, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Blitz, Leo [Department of Astronomy, Campbell Hall, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States); Bois, Maxime [Observatoire de Paris, LERMA and CNRS, 61 Av. de l' Observatoire, F-75014 Paris (France); Bournaud, Frédéric; Duc, Pierre-Alain [Laboratoire AIM Paris-Saclay, CEA/IRFU/SAp- CNRS-Université Paris Diderot, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex (France); Crocker, Alison F. [Ritter Astrophysical Observatory, University of Toledo, Toledo, OH 43606 (United States); Davis, Timothy A.; De Zeeuw, P. T.; Emsellem, Eric; Kuntschner, Harald [European Southern Observatory, Karl-Schwarzschild-Str. 2, D-85748 Garching (Germany); Khochfar, Sadegh [Institute for Astronomy, University of Edinburgh, Royal Observatory, Edinburgh, EH9 3HJ (United Kingdom); Krajnović, Davor [Leibniz-Institut für Astrophysik Potsdam (AIP), An der Sternwarte 16, D-14482 Potsdam (Germany); Morganti, Raffaella; Oosterloo, Tom [Netherlands Institute for Radio Astronomy (ASTRON), Postbus 2, 7990 AA Dwingeloo (Netherlands); Naab, Thorsten, E-mail: richard.mcdermid@mq.edu.au [Max-Planck-Institut für Astrophysik, Karl-Schwarzschild-Str. 1, D-85741 Garching (Germany); and others

2014-09-10

We report on empirical trends between the dynamically determined stellar initial mass function (IMF) and stellar population properties for a complete, volume-limited sample of 260 early-type galaxies from the ATLAS{sup 3D} project. We study trends between our dynamically derived IMF normalization α{sub dyn} ≡ (M/L){sub stars}/(M/L){sub Salp} and absorption line strengths, and interpret these via single stellar population-equivalent ages, abundance ratios (measured as [α/Fe]), and total metallicity, [Z/H]. We find that old and alpha-enhanced galaxies tend to have on average heavier (Salpeter-like) mass normalization of the IMF, but stellar population does not appear to be a good predictor of the IMF, with a large range of α{sub dyn} at a given population parameter. As a result, we find weak α{sub dyn}-[α/Fe] and α{sub dyn} –Age correlations and no significant α{sub dyn} –[Z/H] correlation. The observed trends appear significantly weaker than those reported in studies that measure the IMF normalization via the low-mass star demographics inferred through stellar spectral analysis.

The cultural implications of growth: Modeling nonlinear interaction of trait selection and population dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

Antoci, Angelo; Galeotti, Marcello; Russu, Paolo; Luigi Sacco, Pier

2018-05-01

In this paper, we study a nonlinear model of the interaction between trait selection and population dynamics, building on previous work of Ghirlanda et al. [Theor. Popul. Biol. 77, 181-188 (2010)] and Antoci et al. [Commun. Nonlinear Sci. Numer. Simul. 58, 92-106 (2018)]. We establish some basic properties of the model dynamics and present some simulations of the fine-grained structure of alternative dynamic regimes for chosen combinations of parameters. The role of the parameters that govern the reinforcement/corruption of maladaptive vs. adaptive traits is of special importance in determining the model's dynamic evolution. The main implication of this result is the need to pay special attention to the structural forces that may favor the emergence and consolidation of maladaptive traits in contemporary socio-economies, as it is the case, for example, for the stimulation of dysfunctional consumption habits and lifestyles in the pursuit of short-term profits.

The cultural implications of growth: Modeling nonlinear interaction of trait selection and population dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Antoci, Angelo; Galeotti, Marcello; Russu, Paolo; Luigi Sacco, Pier

2018-05-01

In this paper, we study a nonlinear model of the interaction between trait selection and population dynamics, building on previous work of Ghirlanda et al. [Theor. Popul. Biol. 77, 181-188 (2010)] and Antoci et al. [Commun. Nonlinear Sci. Numer. Simul. 58, 92-106 (2018)]. We establish some basic properties of the model dynamics and present some simulations of the fine-grained structure of alternative dynamic regimes for chosen combinations of parameters. The role of the parameters that govern the reinforcement/corruption of maladaptive vs. adaptive traits is of special importance in determining the model's dynamic evolution. The main implication of this result is the need to pay special attention to the structural forces that may favor the emergence and consolidation of maladaptive traits in contemporary socio-economies, as it is the case, for example, for the stimulation of dysfunctional consumption habits and lifestyles in the pursuit of short-term profits.

DISPLACE: a dynamic, individual-based model for spatial fishing planning and effort displacement: Integrating underlying fish population models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bastardie, Francois; Nielsen, J. Rasmus; Miethe, Tanja

or to the alteration of individual fishing patterns. We demonstrate that integrating the spatial activity of vessels and local fish stock abundance dynamics allow for interactions and more realistic predictions of fishermen behaviour, revenues and stock abundance......We previously developed a spatially explicit, individual-based model (IBM) evaluating the bio-economic efficiency of fishing vessel movements between regions according to the catching and targeting of different species based on the most recent high resolution spatial fishery data. The main purpose...... was to test the effects of alternative fishing effort allocation scenarios related to fuel consumption, energy efficiency (value per litre of fuel), sustainable fish stock harvesting, and profitability of the fisheries. The assumption here was constant underlying resource availability. Now, an advanced...

The dynamic behavior of the SUPER-PHENIX reactor under unprotected transient

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gouriou, A.; Francillon, E.; Kayser, G.; Malenfer, G.; Languille, A.

1982-01-01

Due to design changes and progress on the knowledge of feed-back effects, a reactualization of the dynamic behavior of SUPER-PHENIX under unprotected transients was undertaken. We present the main data on feed-back characteristics and the results of dynamic calculations. With the present state of knowledge, the former conclusion is confirmed: the dynamic evolution is very slow and no irreversible phenomena happen in the short term

Transients drive the demographic dynamics of plant populations in variable environments

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

McDonald, Jenni L; Stott, Iain; Townley, Stuart

2016-01-01

clear patterns related to growth form. We find a surprising tendency for plant populations to boom rather than bust in response to temporal changes in vital rates and that stochastic growth rates increase with increasing tendency to boom. Synthesis. Transient dynamics contribute significantly...

Fortune favours the brave: Movement responses shape demographic dynamics in strongly competing populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Potts, Jonathan R; Petrovskii, Sergei V

2017-05-07

Animal movement is a key mechanism for shaping population dynamics. The effect of interactions between competing animals on a population's survival has been studied for many decades. However, interactions also affect an animal's subsequent movement decisions. Despite this, the indirect effect of these decisions on animal survival is much less well-understood. Here, we incorporate movement responses to foreign animals into a model of two competing populations, where inter-specific competition is greater than intra-specific competition. When movement is diffusive, the travelling wave moves from the stronger population to the weaker. However, by incorporating behaviourally induced directed movement towards the stronger population, the weaker one can slow the travelling wave down, even reversing its direction. Hence movement responses can switch the predictions of traditional mechanistic models. Furthermore, when environmental heterogeneity is combined with aggressive movement strategies, it is possible for spatially segregated co-existence to emerge. In this situation, the spatial patterns of the competing populations have the unusual feature that they are slightly out-of-phase with the environmental patterns. Finally, incorporating dynamic movement responses can also enable stable co-existence in a homogeneous environment, giving a new mechanism for spatially segregated co-existence. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

General two-species interacting Lotka-Volterra system: Population dynamics and wave propagation

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Haoqi; Wang, Mao-Xiang; Lai, Pik-Yin

2018-05-01

The population dynamics of two interacting species modeled by the Lotka-Volterra (LV) model with general parameters that can promote or suppress the other species is studied. It is found that the properties of the two species' isoclines determine the interaction of species, leading to six regimes in the phase diagram of interspecies interaction; i.e., there are six different interspecific relationships described by the LV model. Four regimes allow for nontrivial species coexistence, among which it is found that three of them are stable, namely, weak competition, mutualism, and predator-prey scenarios can lead to win-win coexistence situations. The Lyapunov function for general nontrivial two-species coexistence is also constructed. Furthermore, in the presence of spatial diffusion of the species, the dynamics can lead to steady wavefront propagation and can alter the population map. Propagating wavefront solutions in one dimension are investigated analytically and by numerical solutions. The steady wavefront speeds are obtained analytically via nonlinear dynamics analysis and verified by numerical solutions. In addition to the inter- and intraspecific interaction parameters, the intrinsic speed parameters of each species play a decisive role in species populations and wave properties. In some regimes, both species can copropagate with the same wave speeds in a finite range of parameters. Our results are further discussed in the light of possible biological relevance and ecological implications.

Under-the-barrier dynamics in laser-induced relativistic tunneling.

Science.gov (United States)

Klaiber, Michael; Yakaboylu, Enderalp; Bauke, Heiko; Hatsagortsyan, Karen Z; Keitel, Christoph H

2013-04-12

The tunneling dynamics in relativistic strong-field ionization is investigated with the aim to develop an intuitive picture for the relativistic tunneling regime. We demonstrate that the tunneling picture applies also in the relativistic regime by introducing position dependent energy levels. The quantum dynamics in the classically forbidden region features two time scales, the typical time that characterizes the probability density's decay of the ionizing electron under the barrier (Keldysh time) and the time interval which the electron spends inside the barrier (Eisenbud-Wigner-Smith tunneling time). In the relativistic regime, an electron momentum shift as well as a spatial shift along the laser propagation direction arise during the under-the-barrier motion which are caused by the laser magnetic field induced Lorentz force. The momentum shift is proportional to the Keldysh time, while the wave-packet's spatial drift is proportional to the Eisenbud-Wigner-Smith time. The signature of the momentum shift is shown to be present in the ionization spectrum at the detector and, therefore, observable experimentally. In contrast, the signature of the Eisenbud-Wigner-Smith time delay disappears at far distances for pure quasistatic tunneling dynamics.

Mathematical Modeling of Extinction of Inhomogeneous Populations

Science.gov (United States)

Karev, G.P.; Kareva, I.

2016-01-01

Mathematical models of population extinction have a variety of applications in such areas as ecology, paleontology and conservation biology. Here we propose and investigate two types of sub-exponential models of population extinction. Unlike the more traditional exponential models, the life duration of sub-exponential models is finite. In the first model, the population is assumed to be composed clones that are independent from each other. In the second model, we assume that the size of the population as a whole decreases according to the sub-exponential equation. We then investigate the “unobserved heterogeneity”, i.e. the underlying inhomogeneous population model, and calculate the distribution of frequencies of clones for both models. We show that the dynamics of frequencies in the first model is governed by the principle of minimum of Tsallis information loss. In the second model, the notion of “internal population time” is proposed; with respect to the internal time, the dynamics of frequencies is governed by the principle of minimum of Shannon information loss. The results of this analysis show that the principle of minimum of information loss is the underlying law for the evolution of a broad class of models of population extinction. Finally, we propose a possible application of this modeling framework to mechanisms underlying time perception. PMID:27090117

Climate change and population dynamics during the late Mesolithic and the Neolithic transition in Iberia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Javier Fernández López de Pablo

2009-12-01

Full Text Available This paper explores how Early Holocene climate changes in the Western Mediterranean would have affected Late Mesolithic settlement distribution and subsistence strategies in Iberian Peninsula, thereby giving rise to various adaptive scenarios. The current radiocarbon data set concerning the Neolithisation process has revealed the rapidity of the spread of farming in Iberia. Considering both the implications of the last hunter-gatherers’ adaptation strategies and the population dynamics of agro-pastoral communities, we address the migration patterns underlying the Mesolithic- Neolithic transition. In conclusion, we propose that the initial colonization process was the result of two successive and spatially heterogeneous migrations: Maritime Pioneer Colonization and targeted migration to places favorable to the new economic system.

Dynamics of the cell-cycle network under genome-rewiring perturbations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Katzir, Yair; Elhanati, Yuval; Braun, Erez; Averbukh, Inna

2013-01-01

The cell-cycle progression is regulated by a specific network enabling its ordered dynamics. Recent experiments supported by computational models have shown that a core of genes ensures this robust cycle dynamics. However, much less is known about the direct interaction of the cell-cycle regulators with genes outside of the cell-cycle network, in particular those of the metabolic system. Following our recent experimental work, we present here a model focusing on the dynamics of the cell-cycle core network under rewiring perturbations. Rewiring is achieved by placing an essential metabolic gene exclusively under the regulation of a cell-cycle's promoter, forcing the cell-cycle network to function under a multitasking challenging condition; operating in parallel the cell-cycle progression and a metabolic essential gene. Our model relies on simple rate equations that capture the dynamics of the relevant protein–DNA and protein–protein interactions, while making a clear distinction between these two different types of processes. In particular, we treat the cell-cycle transcription factors as limited ‘resources’ and focus on the redistribution of resources in the network during its dynamics. This elucidates the sensitivity of its various nodes to rewiring interactions. The basic model produces the correct cycle dynamics for a wide range of parameters. The simplicity of the model enables us to study the interface between the cell-cycle regulation and other cellular processes. Rewiring a promoter of the network to regulate a foreign gene, forces a multitasking regulatory load. The higher the load on the promoter, the longer is the cell-cycle period. Moreover, in agreement with our experimental results, the model shows that different nodes of the network exhibit variable susceptibilities to the rewiring perturbations. Our model suggests that the topology of the cell-cycle core network ensures its plasticity and flexible interface with other cellular processes

Cooperation Dilemma in Finite Populations under Fluctuating Environments

Science.gov (United States)

Assaf, Michael; Mobilia, Mauro; Roberts, Elijah

2013-12-01

We present a novel approach allowing the study of rare events like fixation under fluctuating environments, modeled as extrinsic noise, in evolutionary processes characterized by the dominance of one species. Our treatment consists of mapping the system onto an auxiliary model, exhibiting metastable species coexistence, that can be analyzed semiclassically. This approach enables us to study the interplay between extrinsic and demographic noise on the statistics of interest. We illustrate our theory by considering the paradigmatic prisoner’s dilemma game, whose evolution is described by the probability that cooperators fixate the population and replace all defectors. We analytically and numerically demonstrate that extrinsic noise may drastically enhance the cooperation fixation probability and even change its functional dependence on the population size. These results, which generalize earlier works in population genetics, indicate that extrinsic noise may help sustain and promote a much higher level of cooperation than static settings.

Dynamics of weed populations : spatial pattern formation and implications for control

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wallinga, J.

1998-01-01

Modelling studies were carried out to analyse spatio-temporal dynamics of annual weed populations and to identify the key factors that determine the long-term herbicide use of weed control programmes. Three different weed control programmes were studied.

In the first weed

Spatial variation in population dynamics of Sitka mice in floodplain forests.

Science.gov (United States)

T.A. Hanley; J.C. Barnard

1999-01-01

Population dynamics and demography of the Sitka mouse, Peromyscus keeni sitkensis, were studied by mark-recapture live-trapping over a 4-year period in four floodplain and upland forest habitats: old-growth Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis) floodplain; red alder (Alnus rubra) floodplain; beaver-pond...

A model for population dynamics of the mimetic butterfly Papilio polytes in the Sakishima Islands, Japan.

Science.gov (United States)

Sekimura, Toshio; Fujihashi, Yuta; Takeuchi, Yasuhiro

2014-11-21

We present a mathematical model for population dynamics of the mimetic swallowtail butterfly Papilio polytes in the Sakishima Islands, Japan. The model includes four major variables, that is, population densities of three kinds of butterflies (two female forms f. cyrus, f. polytes and the unpalatable butterfly Pachliopta aristolochiae) and their predator. It is well-known that the non-mimic f. cyrus resembles and attracts the male most, and the mimic f. polytes mimics the model butterfly P. aristolochiae. Based on experimental evidence, we assume that two forms f. cyrus and f. polytes interact under intraspecific competition for resources including the male, and the growth rate of f. cyrus is higher than that of f. polytes. We further assume that both the benefit of mimicry for the mimic f. polytes and the cost for the model are dependent on their relative frequencies, i.e. the motality of the mimic by predation decreases with increase in frequency of the model, while the motality of the model increases as the frequency of the mimic increases. Taking the density-dependent effect through carrying capacity into account, we set up a model system consisting of three ordinary differential equations (ODEs), analyze it mathematically and provide computer simulations that confirm the analytical results. Our results reproduce field records on population dynamics of P. polytes in the Miyako-jima Island. They also explain the positive dependence of the relative abundance (RA) of the mimic on the advantage index (AI) of the mimicry in the Sakishima Islands defined in Section 2. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Population dynamics and monitoring applied to decision-making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Conroy, M. J.

2004-06-01

influence diagrams to capture the stochastic, temporal processes of managing cheetah population in Kenya. The model predicts likely anagement decisions made by various actors within these countries, (e.g., the President, the Environmental Protection Agency, and rural residents and the resulting probability of cheetah extinction following these decisions. By approaching the problem in both its political and ecological contexts one avoids consideration of decisions that, while beneficial from a purely conservation point of view, are unlikely to be implemented because of conflicting political objectives. Haas’s analysis demonstrates both the promise and challenges of this type of modeling, and he offers suggestions for overcoming inherent technical difficulties such as model calibration. The second paper, by Simon Hoyle and Mark Maunder (Hoyle & Maunder, 2004, uses a Bayesian approach to model population dynamics and the effects of commercial fishing bycatch for the eastern Pacific Ocean spotted dolphin (Stenella attenuata. Their paper provides a good example of why Bayesian analysis is particularly suited to many management problems. Namely, because it allows the integration of disparate pieces of monitoring data in the simultaneous estimation of population parameters; allows forincorporation of expert judgment and data from other systems and species; and provides for explicit consideration of uncertainty in decision–making. Alternative management scenarios can then be explored via forward simulations. In the third paper, Chris Fonnesbeck and Mike Conroy (Fonnesbeck & Conroy, 2004 present an integrated approach for estimating parameters and predicting abundance of American black duck (Anas rubripes populations. They also employ a ayesian approach and overcome some of the computational challenges by using Markov chain–Monte Carlo methods. Ring–recovery and harvest data are used to estimate fall age ratios under alternative reproductive models. These in turn are used to

Population dynamics of graphene driven by a few-cycle laser pulse

Science.gov (United States)

Ding, Chunling; Yu, Rong; Hao, Xiangying; Zhang, Duo; Zu, Fengxia

2017-06-01

We study the time evolution of the populations in a two-dimensional (2D) graphene system by employing a few-cycle laser pulse with a linear polarization. Specifically, we present a comparative numerical analysis of the population dynamics of graphene in three different model configurations. Our results show that the Rabi-like oscillations and intraband population inversion can be observed in the population spectrum, which originated from the periodicity of a few-cycle laser pulse and the intraband Coulomb scattering. Also, coherent population oscillations are produced across the Dirac point when the Rabi frequency of the laser field which is used to couple the interband transition is much larger than that couples the intraband transition, and vice versa. These investigations may be helpful to enhance the performance of graphene-based ultrafast electronic and optoelectronic devices, including light-emitting devices, touch screens, photodetectors, and ultrafast lasers.

Population dynamics, life-history traits of and habitat use by two ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Population dynamics and life-history traits of two sympatric nothobranchiid killifishes, Epiplatys bifasciatus and E. spilargyreius, were studied for 24 months in an intermittent stream in the Kainji Lake Basin, Nigeria. Epiplatys bifasciatus was more abundant throughout the study period, but monthly abundance of both species ...

Population dynamics of Hawaiian seabird colonies vulnerable to sea-level rise

Science.gov (United States)

Hatfield, Jeff S.; Reynolds, Michelle H.; Seavy, Nathaniel E.; Krause, Crystal M.

2012-01-01

Globally, seabirds are vulnerable to anthropogenic threats both at sea and on land. Seabirds typically nest colonially and show strong fidelity to natal colonies, and such colonies on low-lying islands may be threatened by sea-level rise. We used French Frigate Shoals, the largest atoll in the Hawaiian Archipelago, as a case study to explore the population dynamics of seabird colonies and the potential effects sea-level rise may have on these rookeries. We compiled historic observations, a 30-year time series of seabird population abundance, lidar-derived elevations, and aerial imagery of all the islands of French Frigate Shoals. To estimate the population dynamics of 8 species of breeding seabirds on Tern Island from 1980 to 2009, we used a Gompertz model with a Bayesian approach to infer population growth rates, density dependence, process variation, and observation error. All species increased in abundance, in a pattern that provided evidence of density dependence. Great Frigatebirds (Fregata minor), Masked Boobies (Sula dactylatra), Red-tailed Tropicbirds (Phaethon rubricauda), Spectacled Terns (Onychoprion lunatus), and White Terns (Gygis alba) are likely at carrying capacity. Density dependence may exacerbate the effects of sea-level rise on seabirds because populations near carrying capacity on an island will be more negatively affected than populations with room for growth. We projected 12% of French Frigate Shoals will be inundated if sea level rises 1 m and 28% if sea level rises 2 m. Spectacled Terns and shrub-nesting species are especially vulnerable to sea-level rise, but seawalls and habitat restoration may mitigate the effects of sea-level rise. Losses of seabird nesting habitat may be substantial in the Hawaiian Islands by 2100 if sea levels rise 2 m. Restoration of higher-elevation seabird colonies represent a more enduring conservation solution for Pacific seabirds.

Dynamic Processes in Nanostructured Crystals Under Ion Irradiation

Science.gov (United States)

Uglov, V. V.; Kvasov, N. T.; Shimanski, V. I.; Safronov, I. V.; Komarov, N. D.

2018-02-01

The paper presents detailed investigations of dynamic processes occurring in nanostructured Si(Fe) material under the radiation exposure, namely: heating, thermoelastic stress generation, elastic disturbances of the surrounding medium similar to weak shock waves, and dislocation generation. The performance calculations are proposed for elastic properties of the nanostructured material with a glance to size effects in nanoparticles.

The effect of temperature on Anopheles mosquito population dynamics and the potential for malaria transmission.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lindsay M Beck-Johnson

Full Text Available The parasites that cause malaria depend on Anopheles mosquitoes for transmission; because of this, mosquito population dynamics are a key determinant of malaria risk. Development and survival rates of both the Anopheles mosquitoes and the Plasmodium parasites that cause malaria depend on temperature, making this a potential driver of mosquito population dynamics and malaria transmission. We developed a temperature-dependent, stage-structured delayed differential equation model to better understand how climate determines risk. Including the full mosquito life cycle in the model reveals that the mosquito population abundance is more sensitive to temperature than previously thought because it is strongly influenced by the dynamics of the juvenile mosquito stages whose vital rates are also temperature-dependent. Additionally, the model predicts a peak in abundance of mosquitoes old enough to vector malaria at more accurate temperatures than previous models. Our results point to the importance of incorporating detailed vector biology into models for predicting the risk for vector borne diseases.

Nonbreeding-Season Drivers of Population Dynamics in Seasonal Migrants: Conservation Parallels Across Taxa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anna M. Calvert

2009-12-01

Full Text Available For seasonal migrants, logistical constraints have often limited conservation efforts to improving survival and reproduction during the breeding season only. Yet, mounting empirical evidence suggests that events occurring throughout the migratory life cycle can critically alter the demography of many migrant species. Herein, we build upon recent syntheses of avian migration research to review the role of non-breeding seasons in determining the population dynamics and fitness of diverse migratory taxa, including salmonid fishes, marine mammals, ungulates, sea turtles, butterflies, and numerous bird groups. We discuss several similarities across these varied migrants: (i non-breeding survivorship tends to be a strong driver of population growth; (ii non-breeding events can affect fitness in subsequent seasons through seasonal interactions at individual- and population-levels; (iii broad-scale climatic influences often alter non-breeding resources and migration timing, and may amplify population impacts through covariation among seasonal vital rates; and (iv changes to both stationary and migratory non-breeding habitats can have important consequences for abundance and population trends. Finally, we draw on these patterns to recommend that future conservation research for seasonal migrants will benefit from: (1 more explicit recognition of the important parallels among taxonomically diverse migratory animals; (2 an expanded research perspective focused on quantification of all seasonal vital rates and their interactions; and (3 the development of detailed population projection models that account for complexity and uncertainty in migrant population dynamics.

Extinction transition in stochastic population dynamics in a random, convective environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Juhász, Róbert

2013-01-01

Motivated by modeling the dynamics of a population living in a flowing medium where the environmental factors are random in space, we have studied an asymmetric variant of the one-dimensional contact process, where the quenched random reproduction rates are systematically greater in one direction than in the opposite one. The spatial disorder turns out to be a relevant perturbation but, according to results of Monte Carlo simulations, the behavior of the model at the extinction transition is different from the (infinite-randomness) critical behavior of the disordered symmetric contact process. Depending on the strength a of the asymmetry, the critical population drifts either with a finite velocity or with an asymptotically vanishing velocity as x(t) ∼ t μ(a) , where μ(a) < 1. Dynamical quantities are non-self-averaging at the extinction transition; the survival probability, for instance, shows multiscaling, i.e. it is characterized by a broad spectrum of effective exponents. For a sufficiently weak asymmetry, a Griffiths phase appears below the extinction transition, where the survival probability decays as a non-universal power of the time while, above the transition, another extended phase emerges, where the front of the population advances anomalously with a diffusion exponent continuously varying with the control parameter. (paper)

Adaptation dynamics of laboratory populations of Drosophila Melanogaster to low dose chronic ionizing irradiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zajnullin, V.G.; Yushkova, E.A.

2008-01-01

In genetically non-uniform populations D. melanogaster in conditions of a chronic irradiation in a doze 10-11 about sGy/generation dynamics parameters of populations was investigated. It is established, that number of individuals in irradiated populations is lower, than in control. It is revealed, that viability of populations undergone to a chronic irradiation depends on their genotype. The gradual increase in fruitfulness, viability of individuals and decrease in a level of lethal mutations in a number of generations after of an irradiation in low doses is caused by adaptable opportunities of populations. (authors)

Dynamic population artificial bee colony algorithm for multi-objective optimal power flow

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Man Ding

2017-03-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a novel artificial bee colony algorithm with dynamic population (ABC-DP, which synergizes the idea of extended life-cycle evolving model to balance the exploration and exploitation tradeoff. The proposed ABC-DP is a more bee-colony-realistic model that the bee can reproduce and die dynamically throughout the foraging process and population size varies as the algorithm runs. ABC-DP is then used for solving the optimal power flow (OPF problem in power systems that considers the cost, loss, and emission impacts as the objective functions. The 30-bus IEEE test system is presented to illustrate the application of the proposed algorithm. The simulation results, which are also compared to nondominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGAII and multi-objective ABC (MOABC, are presented to illustrate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method.

A mechanistic analysis of density dependence in algal population dynamics

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Adrian eBorlestean

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Population density regulation is a fundamental principle in ecology, but the specific process underlying functional expression of density dependence remains to be fully elucidated. One view contends that patterns of density dependence are largely fixed across a species irrespective of environmental conditions, whereas another is that the strength and expression of density dependence are fundamentally variable depending on the nature of exogenous or endogenous constraints acting on the population. We conducted a study investigating the expression of density dependence in Chlamydomonas spp. grown under a gradient from low to high nutrient density. We predicted that the relationship between per capita growth rate (pgr and population density would vary from concave up to concave down as nutrient density became less limiting and populations experienced weaker density regulation. Contrary to prediction, we found that the relationship between pgr and density became increasingly concave-up as nutrient levels increased. We also found that variation in pgr increased, and pgr levels reached higher maxima in nutrient-limited environments. Most likely, these results are attributable to population growth suppression in environments with high intraspecific competition due to limited nutrient resources. Our results suggest that density regulation is strongly variable depending on exogenous and endogenous processes acting on the population, implying that expression of density dependence depends extensively on local conditions. Additional experimental work should reveal the mechanisms influencing how the expression of density dependence varies across populations through space and time.

Dynamic response of multiple nanobeam system under a moving nanoparticle

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Shahrokh Hosseini Hashemi

2018-03-01

Full Text Available In this article, nonlocal continuum based model of multiple nanobeam system (MNBS under a moving nanoparticle is investigated using Eringen’s nonlocal theory. Beam layers are assumed to be coupled by winkler elastic medium and the nonlocal Euler-Bernoulli beam theory is used to model each layer of beam. The Hamilton’s principle, Eigen function technique and the Laplace transform method are employed to solve the governing equations. Analytical solutions of the transverse displacements for MNBs with simply supported boundary condition are presented for double layered and three layered MNBSs. For higher number of layers, the governing set of equations is solved numerically and the results are presented. This study shows that small-scale parameter has a significant effect on dynamic response of MNBS under a moving nanoparticle. Sensitivity of dynamical deflection to variation of nonlocal parameter, stiffness of Winkler elastic medium and number of nanobeams are presented in nondimensional form for each layer. Keywords: Dynamic response, Analytical solution, Moving particle, Nanobeam, Multi-layered nanobeam

Predator-prey-subsidy population dynamics on stepping-stone domains with dispersal delays.

Science.gov (United States)

Eide, Ragna M; Krause, Andrew L; Fadai, Nabil T; Van Gorder, Robert A

2018-08-14

We examine the role of the travel time of a predator along a spatial network on predator-prey population interactions, where the predator is able to partially or fully sustain itself on a resource subsidy. The impact of access to food resources on the stability and behaviour of the predator-prey-subsidy system is investigated, with a primary focus on how incorporating travel time changes the dynamics. The population interactions are modelled by a system of delay differential equations, where travel time is incorporated as discrete delay in the network diffusion term in order to model time taken to migrate between spatial regions. The model is motivated by the Arctic ecosystem, where the Arctic fox consumes both hunted lemming and scavenged seal carcass. The fox travels out on sea ice, in addition to quadrennially migrating over substantial distances. We model the spatial predator-prey-subsidy dynamics through a "stepping-stone" approach. We find that a temporal delay alone does not push species into extinction, but rather may stabilize or destabilize coexistence equilibria. We are able to show that delay can stabilize quasi-periodic or chaotic dynamics, and conclude that the incorporation of dispersal delay has a regularizing effect on dynamics, suggesting that dispersal delay can be proposed as a solution to the paradox of enrichment. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Stochastic Delay Population Dynamics under Regime Switching: Global Solutions and Extinction

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Zheng Wu

2013-01-01

Full Text Available This paper is concerned with a delay Lotka-Volterra model under regime switching diffusion in random environment. By using generalized Itô formula, Gronwall inequality and Young’s inequality, some sufficient conditions for existence of global positive solutions and stochastically ultimate boundedness are obtained, respectively. Finally, an example is given to illustrate the main results.

Investigating the Genetic Diversity, Population Differentiation and Population Dynamics of Cycas segmentifida (Cycadaceae Endemic to Southwest China by Multiple Molecular Markers

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Xiuyan Feng

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Climate change, species dispersal ability and habitat fragmentation are major factors influencing species distribution and genetic diversity, especially for the range-restricted and threatened taxa. Here, using four sequences of chloroplast DNAs (cpDNAs, three nuclear genes (nDNAs and 12 nuclear microsatellites (SSRs, we investigated the genetic diversity, genetic structure, divergence time and population dynamics of Cycas segmentifida D. Y. Wang and C. Y. Deng, a threatened cycad species endemic to Southwest China. High levels of genetic diversity and genetic differentiation were revealed in C. segmentifida. Haplotypes of networks showed two evolutionary units in C. segmentifida, with the exception of the nuclear gene GTP network. Meanwhile, the UPGMA tree, structure and PCoA analyses suggested that 14 populations of C. segmentifida were divided into two clades. There was significant effect of isolation by distance (IBD in this species. However, this species did not display a significant phylogeographic structure. The divergence time estimation suggested that its haplotypes diverged during the Middle Pleistocene. Additionally, the population dynamics inferred from different DNA sequences analyses were discordant. Bottleneck analysis showed that populations of C. segmentifida did not experience any recent bottleneck effect, but rather pointed to a contraction of its effective population size over time. Furthermore, our results suggested that the population BM which held an intact population structure and occupied undisturbed habitat was at the Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium, implying that this population is a free-mating system. These genetic features provide important information for the sustainable management of C. segmentifida.

Dynamics and role of sphingomonas/mycobacterium populations during bio-remediation of weathered PAH-contaminated soils

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bastiaens, L.; Ryngaert, A.; Leys, N.; Van Houtven, D.; Gemoets, J.; Goethals, L.; Springael, D.

2005-01-01

Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) are major soil pollutants in many industrialized countries. During the last decades, a diversity of PAH-degrading micro-organisms has been isolated, suggesting possibilities for bio-remediation. However, biodegradation of PAHs in contaminated soils is not always successful. The low bio-availability of the PAHs is the major problem, especially in weathered soils. In these soils a tightly sorbed PAH-fraction is present which is in general hardly accessible for microorganisms. In order to bio-remedy PAHs also in weathered soils, stimulation of bacteria which have special strategies to access sorbed organics may be a solution. Sphingomonas and Mycobacterium strains may represent such bacteria as (I) they are often isolated as PAH degraders, (II) they are ubiquitously present in PAH-contaminated soils, and (III) they display features which might promote bioavailability. Lab- and pilot-scale experiments were set up in order (A) to study the dynamics of indigenous Sphingomonas and Mycobacterium populations during bio-remediation, and (B) to evaluate their role in the biodegradation of the less bio-available PAH-fraction during treatment of an historic PAH polluted soil. The soil was treated under natural soil moisture conditions and slurry conditions. The experimental set-ups ranged from 2 g lab-scale test to pilot experiments in 1 ton bio-piles and dry solid reactors (50 kg 70% dry matter soil). Different additives were evaluated for stimulation of the Sphingomonas and Mycobacterium population as a strategy to improve bio-remediation of PAHs. The evolution of this microbial population was followed using culture-independent general and genus-specific PCR-based detection methods targeting the 16S rRNA genes of the eu-bacterial community, Mycobacterium or the Sphingomonas populations, respectively. During the different bio-remediation experiments that were conducted, the Mycobacterium population remained very stable, only minor

Dynamics and role of sphingomonas/mycobacterium populations during bio-remediation of weathered PAH-contaminated soils

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bastiaens, L.; Ryngaert, A.; Leys, N.; Van Houtven, D.; Gemoets, J. [Flemish Institute for Technological Research-Vito, Mol (Belgium); Goethals, L. [ENVISAN, Aalst, (Belgium); Springael, D. [Catholic University of Leuven-KUL, Leuven (Belgium)

2005-07-01

Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) are major soil pollutants in many industrialized countries. During the last decades, a diversity of PAH-degrading micro-organisms has been isolated, suggesting possibilities for bio-remediation. However, biodegradation of PAHs in contaminated soils is not always successful. The low bio-availability of the PAHs is the major problem, especially in weathered soils. In these soils a tightly sorbed PAH-fraction is present which is in general hardly accessible for microorganisms. In order to bio-remedy PAHs also in weathered soils, stimulation of bacteria which have special strategies to access sorbed organics may be a solution. Sphingomonas and Mycobacterium strains may represent such bacteria as (I) they are often isolated as PAH degraders, (II) they are ubiquitously present in PAH-contaminated soils, and (III) they display features which might promote bioavailability. Lab- and pilot-scale experiments were set up in order (A) to study the dynamics of indigenous Sphingomonas and Mycobacterium populations during bio-remediation, and (B) to evaluate their role in the biodegradation of the less bio-available PAH-fraction during treatment of an historic PAH polluted soil. The soil was treated under natural soil moisture conditions and slurry conditions. The experimental set-ups ranged from 2 g lab-scale test to pilot experiments in 1 ton bio-piles and dry solid reactors (50 kg 70% dry matter soil). Different additives were evaluated for stimulation of the Sphingomonas and Mycobacterium population as a strategy to improve bio-remediation of PAHs. The evolution of this microbial population was followed using culture-independent general and genus-specific PCR-based detection methods targeting the 16S rRNA genes of the eu-bacterial community, Mycobacterium or the Sphingomonas populations, respectively. During the different bio-remediation experiments that were conducted, the Mycobacterium population remained very stable, only minor

Dynamics of bubble collapse under vessel confinement in 2D hydrodynamic experiments

Science.gov (United States)

Shpuntova, Galina; Austin, Joanna

2013-11-01

One trauma mechanism in biomedical treatment techniques based on the application of cumulative pressure pulses generated either externally (as in shock-wave lithotripsy) or internally (by laser-induced plasma) is the collapse of voids. However, prediction of void-collapse driven tissue damage is a challenging problem, involving complex and dynamic thermomechanical processes in a heterogeneous material. We carry out a series of model experiments to investigate the hydrodynamic processes of voids collapsing under dynamic loading in configurations designed to model cavitation with vessel confinement. The baseline case of void collapse near a single interface is also examined. Thin sheets of tissue-surrogate polymer materials with varying acoustic impedance are used to create one or two parallel material interfaces near the void. Shadowgraph photography and two-color, single-frame particle image velocimetry quantify bubble collapse dynamics including jetting, interface dynamics and penetration, and the response of the surrounding material. Research supported by NSF Award #0954769, ``CAREER: Dynamics and damage of void collapse in biological materials under stress wave loading.''

Population dynamic of the swallowtail butterfly, Papilio polytes (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae in dry and wet seasons

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SUWARNO

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Suwarno (2010 Population dynamic of the swallowtail butterfly, Papilio polytes (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae in dry and wet seasons. Biodiversitas 11: 19-23. The population dynamic of Papilio polytes L. (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae in dry and wet seasons was investigated in the citrus orchard in Tasek Gelugor, Pulau Pinang, Malaysia. Population of immature stages of P. polytes was observed alternate day from January to March 2006 (dry season, DS, from April to July 2006 (secondary wet season, SWS, and from October to December 2006 (primary wet season, PWS. The population dynamics of the immature stages of P. polytes varied between seasons. The immature stages of P. polytes are more abundance and significantly different in the PWS than those of the DS and the SWS. The larval densities in all seasons decreased with progressive development of the instar stages. Predators and parasitoids are the main factor in regulating the population abundance of immature stages of P. polytes. There were positive correlations between the abundance of immature stages of P. polytes and their natural enemies abundance in each season. Ooencyrtus papilioni Ashmead (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae is the most egg parasitoid. Oxyopes quadrifasciatus L. Koch. and O. elegans L. Koch. (Araneae: Oxyopidae are the main predators in the young larvae, meanwhile Sycanus dichotomus Stal. (Heteroptera: Reduviidae, Calotes versicolor Fitzinger (Squamata: Agamidae, birds and praying mantis attacked the older larvae.

Stand development and population dynamics of curlleaf mountain mahogany (Cercocarpus ledifolius Nutt.) woodlands in Utah's Bear River Mountains

Science.gov (United States)

Seth A. Ex; Robert DeRose; James N. Long

2011-01-01

Curlleaf mountain mahogany (Cercocarpus ledifolius Nutt.) is a little-studied woodland tree that occurs in pure stands throughout the Intermountain West. Stand development and population dynamics of this species are poorly understood, despite their relevance to management. We describe here the development of stand age structures and population dynamics of mahogany...

Integrating population dynamics into mapping human exposure to seismic hazard

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S. Freire

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Disaster risk is not fully characterized without taking into account vulnerability and population exposure. Assessment of earthquake risk in urban areas would benefit from considering the variation of population distribution at more detailed spatial and temporal scales, and from a more explicit integration of this improved demographic data with existing seismic hazard maps. In the present work, "intelligent" dasymetric mapping is used to model population dynamics at high spatial resolution in order to benefit the analysis of spatio-temporal exposure to earthquake hazard in a metropolitan area. These night- and daytime-specific population densities are then classified and combined with seismic intensity levels to derive new spatially-explicit four-class-composite maps of human exposure. The presented approach enables a more thorough assessment of population exposure to earthquake hazard. Results show that there are significantly more people potentially at risk in the daytime period, demonstrating the shifting nature of population exposure in the daily cycle and the need to move beyond conventional residence-based demographic data sources to improve risk analyses. The proposed fine-scale maps of human exposure to seismic intensity are mainly aimed at benefiting visualization and communication of earthquake risk, but can be valuable in all phases of the disaster management process where knowledge of population densities is relevant for decision-making.

Representation of dynamical stimuli in populations of threshold neurons.

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Tatjana Tchumatchenko

2011-10-01

Full Text Available Many sensory or cognitive events are associated with dynamic current modulations in cortical neurons. This raises an urgent demand for tractable model approaches addressing the merits and limits of potential encoding strategies. Yet, current theoretical approaches addressing the response to mean- and variance-encoded stimuli rarely provide complete response functions for both modes of encoding in the presence of correlated noise. Here, we investigate the neuronal population response to dynamical modifications of the mean or variance of the synaptic bombardment using an alternative threshold model framework. In the variance and mean channel, we provide explicit expressions for the linear and non-linear frequency response functions in the presence of correlated noise and use them to derive population rate response to step-like stimuli. For mean-encoded signals, we find that the complete response function depends only on the temporal width of the input correlation function, but not on other functional specifics. Furthermore, we show that both mean- and variance-encoded signals can relay high-frequency inputs, and in both schemes step-like changes can be detected instantaneously. Finally, we obtain the pairwise spike correlation function and the spike triggered average from the linear mean-evoked response function. These results provide a maximally tractable limiting case that complements and extends previous results obtained in the integrate and fire framework.

Prediction of population with Alzheimer's disease in the European Union using a system dynamics model.

Science.gov (United States)

Tomaskova, Hana; Kuhnova, Jitka; Cimler, Richard; Dolezal, Ondrej; Kuca, Kamil

2016-01-01

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a slowly progressing neurodegenerative brain disease with irreversible brain effects; it is the most common cause of dementia. With increasing age, the probability of suffering from AD increases. In this research, population growth of the European Union (EU) until the year 2080 and the number of patients with AD are modeled. The aim of this research is to predict the spread of AD in the EU population until year 2080 using a computer simulation. For the simulation of the EU population and the occurrence of AD in this population, a system dynamics modeling approach has been used. System dynamics is a useful and effective method for the investigation of complex social systems. Over the past decades, its applicability has been demonstrated in a wide variety of applications. In this research, this method has been used to investigate the growth of the EU population and predict the number of patients with AD. The model has been calibrated on the population prediction data created by Eurostat. Based on data from Eurostat, the EU population until year 2080 has been modeled. In 2013, the population of the EU was 508 million and the number of patients with AD was 7.5 million. Based on the prediction, in 2040, the population of the EU will be 524 million and the number of patients with AD will be 13.1 million. By the year 2080, the EU population will be 520 million and the number of patients with AD will be 13.7 million. System dynamics modeling approach has been used for the prediction of the number of patients with AD in the EU population till the year 2080. These results can be used to determine the economic burden of the treatment of these patients. With different input data, the simulation can be used also for the different regions as well as for different noncontagious disease predictions.

Experimental evolution and the dynamics of adaptation and genome evolution in microbial populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Lenski, Richard E

2017-10-01

Evolution is an on-going process, and it can be studied experimentally in organisms with rapid generations. My team has maintained 12 populations of Escherichia coli in a simple laboratory environment for >25 years and 60 000 generations. We have quantified the dynamics of adaptation by natural selection, seen some of the populations diverge into stably coexisting ecotypes, described changes in the bacteria's mutation rate, observed the new ability to exploit a previously untapped carbon source, characterized the dynamics of genome evolution and used parallel evolution to identify the genetic targets of selection. I discuss what the future might hold for this particular experiment, briefly highlight some other microbial evolution experiments and suggest how the fields of experimental evolution and microbial ecology might intersect going forward.

Modeling the influence of polls on elections: a population dynamics approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hyman, James M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Restrepo, Juan M [UNIV OF ARIZONA; Rael, Rosalyn C [UNIV OF ARIZONA

2009-01-01

We propose a population dynamics model for quantifying the effects of polling data on the outcome of multi-party elections decided by a majority-rule voting process. We divide the population into two groups: committed voters impervious to polling data, and susceptible voters whose decision to vote is influenced by data, depending on its reliability. This population-based approach to modeling the process sidesteps the problem of upscaling models based upon the choices made by individuals. We find releasing poll data is not advantageous to leading candidates, but it can be exploited by those closely trailing. The analysis identifies the particular type of voting impetus at play in different stages of an election and could help strategists optimize their influence on susceptible voters.

Plasmodium vivax Population Structure and Transmission Dynamics in Sabah Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Abdullah, Noor Rain; Barber, Bridget E.; William, Timothy; Norahmad, Nor Azrina; Satsu, Umi Rubiah; Muniandy, Prem Kumar; Ismail, Zakiah; Grigg, Matthew J.; Jelip, Jenarun; Piera, Kim; von Seidlein, Lorenz; Yeo, Tsin W.; Anstey, Nicholas M.; Price, Ric N.; Auburn, Sarah

2013-01-01

Despite significant progress in the control of malaria in Malaysia, the complex transmission dynamics of P. vivax continue to challenge national efforts to achieve elimination. To assess the impact of ongoing interventions on P. vivax transmission dynamics in Sabah, we genotyped 9 short tandem repeat markers in a total of 97 isolates (8 recurrences) from across Sabah, with a focus on two districts, Kota Marudu (KM, n = 24) and Kota Kinabalu (KK, n = 21), over a 2 year period. STRUCTURE analysis on the Sabah-wide dataset demonstrated multiple sub-populations. Significant differentiation (F ST  = 0.243) was observed between KM and KK, located just 130 Km apart. Consistent with low endemic transmission, infection complexity was modest in both KM (mean MOI  = 1.38) and KK (mean MOI  = 1.19). However, population diversity remained moderate (H E  = 0.583 in KM and H E  = 0.667 in KK). Temporal trends revealed clonal expansions reflecting epidemic transmission dynamics. The haplotypes of these isolates declined in frequency over time, but persisted at low frequency throughout the study duration. A diverse array of low frequency isolates were detected in both KM and KK, some likely reflecting remnants of previous expansions. In accordance with clonal expansions, high levels of Linkage Disequilibrium (I A S >0.5 [P<0.0001] in KK and KM) declined sharply when identical haplotypes were represented once (I A S  = 0.07 [P = 0.0076] in KM, and I A S = -0.003 [P = 0.606] in KK). All 8 recurrences, likely to be relapses, were homologous to the prior infection. These recurrences may promote the persistence of parasite lineages, sustaining local diversity. In summary, Sabah's shrinking P. vivax population appears to have rendered this low endemic setting vulnerable to epidemic expansions. Migration may play an important role in the introduction of new parasite strains leading to epidemic expansions, with important implications for malaria

Memory dynamics under stress.

Science.gov (United States)

Quaedflieg, Conny W E M; Schwabe, Lars

2018-03-01

Stressful events have a major impact on memory. They modulate memory formation in a time-dependent manner, closely linked to the temporal profile of action of major stress mediators, in particular catecholamines and glucocorticoids. Shortly after stressor onset, rapidly acting catecholamines and fast, non-genomic glucocorticoid actions direct cognitive resources to the processing and consolidation of the ongoing threat. In parallel, control of memory is biased towards rather rigid systems, promoting habitual forms of memory allowing efficient processing under stress, at the expense of "cognitive" systems supporting memory flexibility and specificity. In this review, we discuss the implications of this shift in the balance of multiple memory systems for the dynamics of the memory trace. Specifically, stress appears to hinder the incorporation of contextual details into the memory trace, to impede the integration of new information into existing knowledge structures, to impair the flexible generalisation across past experiences, and to hamper the modification of memories in light of new information. Delayed, genomic glucocorticoid actions might reverse the control of memory, thus restoring homeostasis and "cognitive" control of memory again.

Dynamic Properties of the Solow Model with Increasing or Decreasing Population and Time-to-Build Technology

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Luca Guerrini

2013-01-01

Full Text Available We introduce a time-to-build technology in a Solow model with nonconstant population. Our analysis shows that the population dynamics may be a source of stability switches and Hopf bifurcations. The analytical results are obtained using the recent technique introduced by Beretta and Kuang (2002 in the studying of delayed differential equations with delay-dependent coefficients in characteristic equation. Numerical simulations are performed in order to illustrate the main dynamic features of the model.

Living in the branches: population dynamics and ecological processes in dendritic networks

Science.gov (United States)

Grant, E.H.C.; Lowe, W.H.; Fagan, W.F.

2007-01-01

Spatial structure regulates and modifies processes at several levels of ecological organization (e.g. individual/genetic, population and community) and is thus a key component of complex systems, where knowledge at a small scale can be insufficient for understanding system behaviour at a larger scale. Recent syntheses outline potential applications of network theory to ecological systems, but do not address the implications of physical structure for network dynamics. There is a specific need to examine how dendritic habitat structure, such as that found in stream, hedgerow and cave networks, influences ecological processes. Although dendritic networks are one type of ecological network, they are distinguished by two fundamental characteristics: (1) both the branches and the nodes serve as habitat, and (2) the specific spatial arrangement and hierarchical organization of these elements interacts with a species' movement behaviour to alter patterns of population distribution and abundance, and community interactions. Here, we summarize existing theory relating to ecological dynamics in dendritic networks, review empirical studies examining the population- and community-level consequences of these networks, and suggest future research integrating spatial pattern and processes in dendritic systems.

Cell mass and cell cycle dynamics of an asynchronous budding yeast population

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lencastre Fernandes, Rita; Carlquist, Magnus; Lundin, Luisa

2013-01-01

of model predictions for cell property distributions against experimental data is scarce. This study focuses on the experimental and mathematical description of the dynamics of cell size and cell cycle position distributions, of a population of Saccharomyces cerevisiae, in response to the substrate...

Dynamics of a local badger (Meles meles) population in the Netherlands over the years 1983-2001

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Apeldoorn, van R.C.; Vink, J.; Matyástík, T.

2006-01-01

Long-term data on badger population dynamics are scarce. For 19 years data on badger and sett numbers were collected by direct observation of a Local population in the province of Utrecht, the Netherlands. Analysis of these data show two different patterns of population growth. The first shows a

Climate, invasive species and land use drive population dynamics of a cold-water specialist

Science.gov (United States)

Kovach, Ryan P.; Al-Chokhachy, Robert K.; Whited, Diane C.; Schmetterling, David A.; Dux, Andrew M; Muhlfeld, Clint C.

2017-01-01

Climate change is an additional stressor in a complex suite of threats facing freshwater biodiversity, particularly for cold-water fishes. Research addressing the consequences of climate change on cold-water fish has generally focused on temperature limits defining spatial distributions, largely ignoring how climatic variation influences population dynamics in the context of other existing stressors.We used long-term data from 92 populations of bull trout Salvelinus confluentus – one of North America's most cold-adapted fishes – to quantify additive and interactive effects of climate, invasive species and land use on population dynamics (abundance, variability and growth rate).Populations were generally depressed, more variable and declining where spawning and rearing stream habitat was limited, invasive species and land use were prevalent and stream temperatures were highest. Increasing stream temperature acted additively and independently, whereas land use and invasive species had additive and interactive effects (i.e. the impact of one stressor depended on exposure to the other stressor).Most (58%–78%) of the explained variation in population dynamics was attributed to the presence of invasive species, differences in life history and management actions in foraging habitats in rivers, lakes and reservoirs. Although invasive fishes had strong negative effects on populations in foraging habitats, proactive control programmes appeared to effectively temper their negative impact.Synthesis and applications. Long-term demographic data emphasize that climate warming will exacerbate imperilment of cold-water specialists like bull trout, yet other stressors – especially invasive fishes – are immediate threats that can be addressed by proactive management actions. Therefore, climate-adaptation strategies for freshwater biodiversity should consider existing abiotic and biotic stressors, some of which provide potential and realized opportunity for conservation

Dynamic fracture initiation in brittle materials under combined mode I/II loading

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nakano, M.; Kishida, K.; Yamauchi, Y.; Sogabe, Y.

1994-01-01

A new test method has been developed to measure the resistance of dynamic fracture initiation in brittle materials under combined mode I/II loadings. The Brazilian disks with center-cracks have been fractured under oblique impact loadings in diametral-compression. The dynamic stress intensity factors of mode I and II are evaluated from the superposition integrals of the step response functions for the cracked disk. The experimental results are presented to elucidate the influence of loading rate on the combined mode fracture toughness for ceramics and glasses. (orig.)

Cellular population dynamics control the robustness of the stem cell niche

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adam L. MacLean

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Within populations of cells, fate decisions are controlled by an indeterminate combination of cell-intrinsic and cell-extrinsic factors. In the case of stem cells, the stem cell niche is believed to maintain ‘stemness’ through communication and interactions between the stem cells and one or more other cell-types that contribute to the niche conditions. To investigate the robustness of cell fate decisions in the stem cell hierarchy and the role that the niche plays, we introduce simple mathematical models of stem and progenitor cells, their progeny and their interplay in the niche. These models capture the fundamental processes of proliferation and differentiation and allow us to consider alternative possibilities regarding how niche-mediated signalling feedback regulates the niche dynamics. Generalised stability analysis of these stem cell niche systems enables us to describe the stability properties of each model. We find that although the number of feasible states depends on the model, their probabilities of stability in general do not: stem cell–niche models are stable across a wide range of parameters. We demonstrate that niche-mediated feedback increases the number of stable steady states, and show how distinct cell states have distinct branching characteristics. The ecological feedback and interactions mediated by the stem cell niche thus lend (surprisingly high levels of robustness to the stem and progenitor cell population dynamics. Furthermore, cell–cell interactions are sufficient for populations of stem cells and their progeny to achieve stability and maintain homeostasis. We show that the robustness of the niche – and hence of the stem cell pool in the niche – depends only weakly, if at all, on the complexity of the niche make-up: simple as well as complicated niche systems are capable of supporting robust and stable stem cell dynamics.

Evolutionary game dynamics in a growing structured population

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Poncela, Julia; Gomez-Gardenes, Jesus; Moreno, Yamir [Institute for Biocomputation and Physics of Complex Systems (BIFI), University of Zaragoza, E-50009 Zaragoza (Spain); Traulsen, Arne [Emmy-Noether Group for Evolutionary Dynamics, Department of Evolutionary Ecology, Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Biology, August-Thienemann-Strasse 2, 24306 Ploen (Germany)], E-mail: traulsen@evolbio.mpg.de

2009-08-15

We discuss a model for evolutionary game dynamics in a growing, network-structured population. In our model, new players can either make connections to random preexisting players or preferentially attach to those that have been successful in the past. The latter depends on the dynamics of strategies in the game, which we implement following the so-called Fermi rule such that the limits of weak and strong strategy selection can be explored. Our framework allows to address general evolutionary games. With only two parameters describing the preferential attachment and the intensity of selection, we describe a wide range of network structures and evolutionary scenarios. Our results show that even for moderate payoff preferential attachment, over represented hubs arise. Interestingly, we find that while the networks are growing, high levels of cooperation are attained, but the same network structure does not promote cooperation as a static network. Therefore, the mechanism of payoff preferential attachment is different to those usually invoked to explain the promotion of cooperation in static, already-grown networks.

Evolutionary game dynamics in a growing structured population

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Poncela, Julia; Gomez-Gardenes, Jesus; Moreno, Yamir; Traulsen, Arne

2009-01-01

We discuss a model for evolutionary game dynamics in a growing, network-structured population. In our model, new players can either make connections to random preexisting players or preferentially attach to those that have been successful in the past. The latter depends on the dynamics of strategies in the game, which we implement following the so-called Fermi rule such that the limits of weak and strong strategy selection can be explored. Our framework allows to address general evolutionary games. With only two parameters describing the preferential attachment and the intensity of selection, we describe a wide range of network structures and evolutionary scenarios. Our results show that even for moderate payoff preferential attachment, over represented hubs arise. Interestingly, we find that while the networks are growing, high levels of cooperation are attained, but the same network structure does not promote cooperation as a static network. Therefore, the mechanism of payoff preferential attachment is different to those usually invoked to explain the promotion of cooperation in static, already-grown networks.

Unsteady exergy destruction of the neuron under dynamic stress conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Genc, S.; Sorguven, E.; Ozilgen, M.; Aksan Kurnaz, I.

2013-01-01

Just like all physical systems, biological systems also obey laws of thermodynamics, and as such the useful work potential of a biological system is its exergy. In some studies, exergy of living systems is considered with respect to work performance of humans in offices or buildings; however the exergy analysis of biochemical reactions in a cell as a closed system goes largely untouched. In this study, exergy analysis was applied to glucose metabolism of a model neuron, and dynamic exergy destructions were calculated for four different conditions, namely normoxia, hypoxia, glucose starvation and excess glucose. Our results showed that neuronal metabolism achieved a new steady state under each condition within 5 min. This dynamic model predicts that, both exergy destruction and work potential rates increase with increasing blood glucose concentration. The ratio of exergy destruction rate to work potential rate increases logarithmically with increasing blood glucose concentration. The neuronal metabolism is thus found to function in an efficient way and switches to lower exergy destruction under stress conditions such as glucose starvation. This behavior seen in this exergy analysis study confirms the assumption of minimum entropy production in living systems. - Highlights: • Unsteady exergy analysis of glucose metabolism of a model neuron is performed. • Dynamic exergy losses were calculated for four different conditions: normoxia, hypoxia, glucose starvation and excess glucose. • Neuronal metabolism achieved a new steady state under each condition within 5 min. • Both exergy loss and work potential rates increase with increasing blood glucose concentration. • Neuronal metabolism functions in an efficient way and switches to lower exergy loss under stress conditions

Disentangling the effects of climate, density dependence, and harvest on an iconic large herbivore's population dynamics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Koons, David; Colchero, Fernando; Hersey, Kent

2015-01-01

Understanding the relative effects of climate, harvest, and density dependence on population dynamics is critical for guiding sound population management, especially for ungulates in arid and semi-arid environments experiencing climate change. To address these issues for bison in southern Utah, we...... than precipitation and other temperature-related variables (model weight > 3 times more than that for other climate variables). Although we hypothesized that harvest is the primary driving force of bison population dynamics in southern Utah, our elasticity analysis indicated that changes in early...... spring temperature could have a greater ‘relative effect’ on equilibrium abundance than either harvest or the strength of density dependence. Our findings highlight the utility of incorporating elasticity analyses into state-space population models, and the need to include climatic processes in wildlife...

Increasing weather-related impacts on European population under climate and demographic change

Science.gov (United States)

Forzieri, Giovanni; Cescatti, Alessandro; Batista e Silva, Filipe; Kovats, Sari R.; Feyen, Luc

2017-04-01

Over the last three decades the overwhelming majority of disasters have been caused by weather-related events. The observed rise in weather-related disaster losses has been largely attributed to increased exposure and to a lesser degree to global warming. Recent studies suggest an intensification in the climatology of multiple weather extremes in Europe over the coming decades in view of climate change, while urbanization continues. In view of these pressures, understanding and quantifying the potential impacts of extreme weather events on future societies is imperative in order to identify where and to what extent their livelihoods will be at risk in the future, and develop timely and effective adaptation and disaster risk reduction strategies. Here we show a comprehensive assessment of single- and multi-hazard impacts on the European population until the year 2100. For this purpose, we developed a novel methodology that quantifies the human impacts as a multiplicative function of hazard, exposure and population vulnerability. We focus on seven of the most impacting weather-related hazards - including heat and cold waves, wildfires, droughts, river and coastal floods and windstorms - and evaluated their spatial and temporal variations in intensity and frequency under a business-as-usual climate scenario. Long-term demographic dynamics were modelled to assess exposure developments under a corresponding middle-of-the-road scenario. Vulnerability of humans to weather extremes was appraised based on more than 2300 records of weather-related disasters. The integration of these elements provides a range of plausible estimates of extreme weather-related risks for future European generations. Expected impacts on population are quantified in terms of fatalities and number of people exposed. We find a staggering rise in fatalities from extreme weather events, with the projected death toll by the end of the century amounting to more than 50 times the present number of people

Random and non-random mating populations: Evolutionary dynamics in meiotic drive.

Science.gov (United States)

Sarkar, Bijan

2016-01-01

Game theoretic tools are utilized to analyze a one-locus continuous selection model of sex-specific meiotic drive by considering nonequivalence of the viabilities of reciprocal heterozygotes that might be noticed at an imprinted locus. The model draws attention to the role of viability selections of different types to examine the stable nature of polymorphic equilibrium. A bridge between population genetics and evolutionary game theory has been built up by applying the concept of the Fundamental Theorem of Natural Selection. In addition to pointing out the influences of male and female segregation ratios on selection, configuration structure reveals some noted results, e.g., Hardy-Weinberg frequencies hold in replicator dynamics, occurrence of faster evolution at the maximized variance fitness, existence of mixed Evolutionarily Stable Strategy (ESS) in asymmetric games, the tending evolution to follow not only a 1:1 sex ratio but also a 1:1 different alleles ratio at particular gene locus. Through construction of replicator dynamics in the group selection framework, our selection model introduces a redefining bases of game theory to incorporate non-random mating where a mating parameter associated with population structure is dependent on the social structure. Also, the model exposes the fact that the number of polymorphic equilibria will depend on the algebraic expression of population structure. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Stress Distribution in Graded Cellular Materials Under Dynamic Compression

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Peng Wang

Full Text Available Abstract Dynamic compression behaviors of density-homogeneous and density-graded irregular honeycombs are investigated using cell-based finite element models under a constant-velocity impact scenario. A method based on the cross-sectional engineering stress is developed to obtain the one-dimensional stress distribution along the loading direction in a cellular specimen. The cross-sectional engineering stress is contributed by two parts: the node-transitive stress and the contact-induced stress, which are caused by the nodal force and the contact of cell walls, respectively. It is found that the contact-induced stress is dominant for the significantly enhanced stress behind the shock front. The stress enhancement and the compaction wave propagation can be observed through the stress distributions in honeycombs under high-velocity compression. The single and double compaction wave modes are observed directly from the stress distributions. Theoretical analysis of the compaction wave propagation in the density-graded honeycombs based on the R-PH (rigid-plastic hardening idealization is carried out and verified by the numerical simulations. It is found that stress distribution in cellular materials and the compaction wave propagation characteristics under dynamic compression can be approximately predicted by the R-PH shock model.

Invasion fitness for gene-culture co-evolution in family-structured populations and an application to cumulative culture under vertical transmission.

Science.gov (United States)

Mullon, Charles; Lehmann, Laurent

2017-08-01

Human evolution depends on the co-evolution between genetically determined behaviors and socially transmitted information. Although vertical transmission of cultural information from parent to offspring is common in hominins, its effects on cumulative cultural evolution are not fully understood. Here, we investigate gene-culture co-evolution in a family-structured population by studying the invasion fitness of a mutant allele that influences a deterministic level of cultural information (e.g., amount of knowledge or skill) to which diploid carriers of the mutant are exposed in subsequent generations. We show that the selection gradient on such a mutant, and the concomitant level of cultural information it generates, can be evaluated analytically under the assumption that the cultural dynamic has a single attractor point, thereby making gene-culture co-evolution in family-structured populations with multigenerational effects mathematically tractable. We apply our result to study how genetically determined phenotypes of individual and social learning co-evolve with the level of adaptive information they generate under vertical transmission. We find that vertical transmission increases adaptive information due to kin selection effects, but when information is transmitted as efficiently between family members as between unrelated individuals, this increase is moderate in diploids. By contrast, we show that the way resource allocation into learning trades off with allocation into reproduction (the "learning-reproduction trade-off") significantly influences levels of adaptive information. We also show that vertical transmission prevents evolutionary branching and may therefore play a qualitative role in gene-culture co-evolutionary dynamics. More generally, our analysis of selection suggests that vertical transmission can significantly increase levels of adaptive information under the biologically plausible condition that information transmission between relatives is

Population dynamics of Hawaiian seabird colonies vulnerable to sea-level rise.

Science.gov (United States)

Hatfield, Jeff S; Reynolds, Michelle H; Seavy, Nathaniel E; Krause, Crystal M

2012-08-01

Globally, seabirds are vulnerable to anthropogenic threats both at sea and on land. Seabirds typically nest colonially and show strong fidelity to natal colonies, and such colonies on low-lying islands may be threatened by sea-level rise. We used French Frigate Shoals, the largest atoll in the Hawaiian Archipelago, as a case study to explore the population dynamics of seabird colonies and the potential effects sea-level rise may have on these rookeries. We compiled historic observations, a 30-year time series of seabird population abundance, lidar-derived elevations, and aerial imagery of all the islands of French Frigate Shoals. To estimate the population dynamics of 8 species of breeding seabirds on Tern Island from 1980 to 2009, we used a Gompertz model with a Bayesian approach to infer population growth rates, density dependence, process variation, and observation error. All species increased in abundance, in a pattern that provided evidence of density dependence. Great Frigatebirds (Fregata minor), Masked Boobies (Sula dactylatra), Red-tailed Tropicbirds (Phaethon rubricauda), Spectacled Terns (Onychoprion lunatus), and White Terns (Gygis alba) are likely at carrying capacity. Density dependence may exacerbate the effects of sea-level rise on seabirds because populations near carrying capacity on an island will be more negatively affected than populations with room for growth. We projected 12% of French Frigate Shoals will be inundated if sea level rises 1 m and 28% if sea level rises 2 m. Spectacled Terns and shrub-nesting species are especially vulnerable to sea-level rise, but seawalls and habitat restoration may mitigate the effects of sea-level rise. Losses of seabird nesting habitat may be substantial in the Hawaiian Islands by 2100 if sea levels rise 2 m. Restoration of higher-elevation seabird colonies represent a more enduring conservation solution for Pacific seabirds. Conservation Biology ©2012 Society for Conservation Biology. No claim to original

Estimation of mussel population response to hydrologic alteration in a southeastern U.S. stream

Science.gov (United States)

Peterson, J.T.; Wisniewski, J.M.; Shea, C.P.; Rhett, Jackson C.

2011-01-01

The southeastern United States has experienced severe, recurrent drought, rapid human population growth, and increasing agricultural irrigation during recent decades, resulting in greater demand for the water resources. During the same time period, freshwater mussels (Unioniformes) in the region have experienced substantial population declines. Consequently, there is growing interest in determining how mussel population declines are related to activities associated with water resource development. Determining the causes of mussel population declines requires, in part, an understanding of the factors influencing mussel population dynamics. We developed Pradel reverse-time, tag-recapture models to estimate survival, recruitment, and population growth rates for three federally endangered mussel species in the Apalachicola- Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin, Georgia. The models were parameterized using mussel tag-recapture data collected over five consecutive years from Sawhatchee Creek, located in southwestern Georgia. Model estimates indicated that mussel survival was strongly and negatively related to high flows during the summer, whereas recruitment was strongly and positively related to flows during the spring and summer. Using these models, we simulated mussel population dynamics under historic (1940-1969) and current (1980-2008) flow regimes and under increasing levels of water use to evaluate the relative effectiveness of alternative minimum flow regulations. The simulations indicated that the probability of simulated mussel population extinction was at least 8 times greater under current hydrologic regimes. In addition, simulations of mussel extinction under varying levels of water use indicated that the relative risk of extinction increased with increased water use across a range of minimum flow regulations. The simulation results also indicated that our estimates of the effects of water use on mussel extinction were influenced by the assumptions about the

Change in the structures, dynamics and disease-related mortality rates of the population of Qatari nationals: 2007–2011

OpenAIRE

Mohamed H. Al-Thani; Eman Sadoun; Al-Anoud Al-Thani; Shamseldin A. Khalifa; Suzan Sayegh; Alaa Badawi

2014-01-01

Background: Developing effective public health policies and strategies for interventions necessitates an assessment of the structure, dynamics, disease rates and causes of death in a population. Lately, Qatar has undertaken development resurgence in health and economy that resulted in improving the standard of health services and health status of the entire Qatari population (i.e., Qatari nationals and non-Qatari residents). No study has attempted to evaluate the population structure/dynamics...

When and where to move: Dynamic occupancy models explain the range dynamics of a food nomadic bird under climate and land cover change.

Science.gov (United States)

Kalle, Riddhika; Ramesh, Tharmalingam; Downs, Colleen T

2018-01-01

Globally, long-term research is critical to monitor the responses of tropical species to climate and land cover change at the range scale. Citizen science surveys can reveal the long-term persistence of poorly known nomadic tropical birds occupying fragmented forest patches. We applied dynamic occupancy models to 13 years (2002-2014) of citizen science-driven presence/absence data on Cape parrot (Poicephalus robustus), a food nomadic bird endemic to South Africa. We modeled its underlying range dynamics as a function of resource distribution, and change in climate and land cover through the estimation of colonization and extinction patterns. The range occupancy of Cape parrot changed little over time (ψ = 0.75-0.83) because extinction was balanced by recolonization. Yet, there was considerable regional variability in occupancy and detection probability increased over the years. Colonizations increased with warmer temperature and area of orchards, thus explaining their range shifts southeastwards in recent years. Although colonizations were higher in the presence of nests and yellowwood trees (Afrocarpus and Podocarpus spp.), the extinctions in small forest patches (≤227 ha) and during low precipitation (≤41 mm) are attributed to resource constraints and unsuitable climatic conditions. Loss of indigenous forest cover and artificial lake/water bodies increased extinction probabilities of Cape parrot. The land use matrix (fruit farms, gardens, and cultivations) surrounding forest patches provides alternative food sources, thereby facilitating spatiotemporal colonization and extinction in the human-modified matrix. Our models show that Cape parrots are vulnerable to extreme climatic conditions such as drought which is predicted to increase under climate change. Therefore, management of optimum sized high-quality forest patches is essential for long-term survival of Cape parrot populations. Our novel application of dynamic occupancy models to long-term citizen

The interplay between human population dynamics and flooding in Bangladesh: a spatial analysis

Science.gov (United States)

di Baldassarre, G.; Yan, K.; Ferdous, MD. R.; Brandimarte, L.

2014-09-01

In Bangladesh, socio-economic and hydrological processes are both extremely dynamic and inter-related. Human population patterns are often explained as a response, or adaptation strategy, to physical events, e.g. flooding, salt-water intrusion, and erosion. Meanwhile, these physical processes are exacerbated, or mitigated, by diverse human interventions, e.g. river diversion, levees and polders. In this context, this paper describes an attempt to explore the complex interplay between floods and societies in Bangladeshi floodplains. In particular, we performed a spatially-distributed analysis of the interactions between the dynamics of human settlements and flood inundation patterns. To this end, we used flooding simulation results from inundation modelling, LISFLOOD-FP, as well as global datasets of population distribution data, such as the Gridded Population of the World (20 years, from 1990 to 2010) and HYDE datasets (310 years, from 1700 to 2010). The outcomes of this work highlight the behaviour of Bangladeshi floodplains as complex human-water systems and indicate the need to go beyond the traditional narratives based on one-way cause-effects, e.g. climate change leading to migrations.

Influence of Maximum Inbreeding Avoidance under BLUP EBV Selection on Pinzgau Population Diversity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Radovan Kasarda

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Evaluated was effect of mating (random vs. maximum avoidance of inbreeding under BLUP EBV selection strategy. Existing population structure was under Monte Carlo stochastic simulation analyzed from the point to minimize increase of inbreeding. Maximum avoidance of inbreeding under BLUP selection resulted into comparable increase of inbreeding then random mating in average of 10 generation development. After 10 generations of simulation of mating strategy was observed ΔF= 6,51 % (2 sires, 5,20 % (3 sires, 3,22 % (4 sires resp. 2,94 % (5 sires. With increased number of sires selected, decrease of inbreeding was observed. With use of 4, resp. 5 sires increase of inbreeding was comparable to random mating with phenotypic selection. For saving of genetic diversity and prevention of population loss is important to minimize increase of inbreeding in small populations. Classical approach was based on balancing ratio of sires and dams in mating program. Contrariwise in the most of commercial populations small number of sires was used with high mating ratio.

Reproductive success is predicted by social dynamics and kinship in managed animal populations [version 1; referees: 2 approved

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Saul J. Newman

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Kin and group interactions are important determinants of reproductive success in many species. Their optimization could, therefore, potentially improve the productivity and breeding success of managed populations used for agricultural and conservation purposes. Here we demonstrate this potential using a novel approach to measure and predict the effect of kin and group dynamics on reproductive output in a well-known species, the meerkat Suricata suricatta. Variation in social dynamics predicts 30% of the individual variation in reproductive success of this species in managed populations, and accurately forecasts reproductive output at least two years into the future. Optimization of social dynamics in captive meerkat populations doubles their projected reproductive output. These results demonstrate the utility of a quantitative approach to breeding programs informed by social and kinship dynamics. They suggest that this approach has great potential for improvements in the management of social endangered and agricultural species.

Variation of Pore Water Pressure in Tailing Sand under Dynamic Loading

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Jia-xu Jin

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Intense vibration affects the pore water pressure in a tailing dam, with the tendency to induce dam liquefaction. In this study, experiments were performed wherein model tailing dams were completely liquefied by sustained horizontal dynamic loading to determine the effects of the vibration frequency, vibration amplitude, and tailing density on the pore water pressure. The results revealed four stages in the increase of the tailing pore water pressure under dynamic loading, namely, a slow increase, a rapid increase, inducement of structural failure, and inducement of complete liquefaction. A lower frequency and smaller amplitude of the vibration were found to increase the time required to achieve a given pore water pressure in dense tailings. Under the effect of these three factors—vibration frequency and amplitude and tailing density—the tailing liquefaction time varied nonlinearly with the height from the base of the tailing dam, with an initial decrease followed by an increase. The pore pressure that induced structural failure also gradually decreased with increasing height. The increase in the tailing pore pressure could be described by an S-shaped model. A complementary multivariate nonlinear equation was also derived for predicting the tailing pore water pressure under dynamic loading.

Nonlinear Absorption-Gain Response and Population Dynamics in a Laser-Driven Four-Level Dense Atomic System

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Jiahua; Liu Jibing; Luo Jinming; Xie Xiaotao

2006-01-01

We theoretically investigate the response of nonlinear absorption and population dynamics in optically dense media of four-level atoms driven by a single-mode probe laser, via taking the density-dependent near dipole-dipole (NDD) interactions into consideration. The influence of the NDD effects on the absorption of the probe field and population dynamics is predicted via numerical calculations. It is shown that the NDD effects can reduce gradually to transient absorption with the increase of the strengths of the NDD interactions, and transient amplification can be achieved. In the steady-state limit, the probe field exhibits transparency for strong NDD interactions. Alternatively, the population entirely remains at the ground state due to the NDD effects.

Dynamic Behaviour of a Population of Controlled-by-price Demand Side Resources

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sossan, Fabrizio; Han, Xue; Bindner, Henrik W.

2014-01-01

It is described that controlling or shedding by price the power consumption of a population of thermostatic loads introduces in the aggregate consumption dynamic effects th at cannot be disregarded if electrical flexible demand is meant to supply power system services. It is shown that inducing...

Multimodel inference to quantify the relative importance of abiotic factors in the population dynamics of marine zooplankton

Science.gov (United States)

Everaert, Gert; Deschutter, Yana; De Troch, Marleen; Janssen, Colin R.; De Schamphelaere, Karel

2018-05-01

The effect of multiple stressors on marine ecosystems remains poorly understood and most of the knowledge available is related to phytoplankton. To partly address this knowledge gap, we tested if combining multimodel inference with generalized additive modelling could quantify the relative contribution of environmental variables on the population dynamics of a zooplankton species in the Belgian part of the North Sea. Hence, we have quantified the relative contribution of oceanographic variables (e.g. water temperature, salinity, nutrient concentrations, and chlorophyll a concentrations) and anthropogenic chemicals (i.e. polychlorinated biphenyls) to the density of Acartia clausi. We found that models with water temperature and chlorophyll a concentration explained ca. 73% of the population density of the marine copepod. Multimodel inference in combination with regression-based models are a generic way to disentangle and quantify multiple stressor-induced changes in marine ecosystems. Future-oriented simulations of copepod densities suggested increased copepod densities under predicted environmental changes.

Testing for reproductive interference in the population dynamics of two congeneric species of herbivorous mites

Science.gov (United States)

Sato, Y; Alba, J M; Sabelis, M W

2014-01-01

When phylogenetically close, two competing species may reproductively interfere, and thereby affect their population dynamics. We tested for reproductive interference (RI) between two congeneric haplo-diploid spider mites, Tetranychus evansi and Tetranychus urticae, by investigating their interspecific mating and their population dynamics when they competed on the same plants. They are both pests of tomato, but differ in the host plant defences that they suppress or induce. To reduce the effect of plant-mediated interaction, we used a mutant tomato plant lacking jasmonate-mediated anti-herbivore defences in the competition experiment. In addition, to manipulate the effect of RI, we introduced founder females already mated with conspecific males in mild RI treatments or founder, virgin females in strong RI treatments (in either case together with heterospecific and conspecific males). As females show first-male sperm precedence, RI should occur especially in the founder generation under strong RI treatments. We found that T. urticae outcompeted T. evansi in mild, but not in strong RI treatments. Thus, T. evansi interfered reproductively with T. urticae. This result was supported by crossing experiments showing frequent interspecific copulations, strong postmating reproductive isolation and a preference of T. evansi males to mate with T. urticae (instead of conspecific) females, whereas T. urticae males preferred conspecific females. We conclude that interspecific mating comes at a cost due to asymmetric mate preferences of males. Because RI by T. evansi can improve its competitiveness to T. urticae, we propose that RI partly explains why T. evansi became invasive in Europe where T. urticae is endemic. PMID:24865602

Analysis of Ant Colony Optimization and Population-Based Evolutionary Algorithms on Dynamic Problems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lissovoi, Andrei

the dynamic optimum for finite alphabets up to size μ, while MMAS is able to do so for any finite alphabet size. Parallel Evolutionary Algorithms on Maze. We prove that while a (1 + λ) EA is unable to track the optimum of the dynamic fitness function Maze for offspring population size up to λ = O(n1-ε......This thesis presents new running time analyses of nature-inspired algorithms on various dynamic problems. It aims to identify and analyse the features of algorithms and problem classes which allow efficient optimization to occur in the presence of dynamic behaviour. We consider the following...... settings: λ-MMAS on Dynamic Shortest Path Problems. We investigate how in-creasing the number of ants simulated per iteration may help an ACO algorithm to track optimum in a dynamic problem. It is shown that while a constant number of ants per-vertex is sufficient to track some oscillations, there also...

Life history and spatial determinants of somatic growth dynamics in Komodo dragon populations

OpenAIRE

Laver, Rj; Purwandana, D; Ariefiandy, A; Imansyah, J; Forsyth, D; Ciofi, C; Jessop, Ts

2012-01-01

Somatic growth patterns represent a major component of organismal fitness and may vary among sexes and populations due to genetic and environmental processes leading to profound differences in life-history and demography. This study considered the ontogenic, sex-specific and spatial dynamics of somatic growth patterns in ten populations of the world's largest lizard the Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis). The growth of 400 individual Komodo dragons was measured in a capture-mark-recapture st...

Strength and behavior in shear of reinforced concrete deep beams under dynamic loading conditions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Adhikary, Satadru Das [School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, 639798 (Singapore); Li, Bing, E-mail: cbli@ntu.edu.sg [School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, 639798 (Singapore); Fujikake, Kazunori [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, National Defense Academy, Yokosuka 239 8686 (Japan)

2013-06-15

Highlights: ► Effects of wider range of loading rates on dynamic shear behavior of RC deep beams. ► Experimental investigation of RC deep beam with and without shear reinforcements. ► Verification of experimental results with truss model and FE simulation results. ► Empirical equations are proposed to predict the dynamic increase factor of maximum resistance. -- Abstract: Research on reinforced concrete (RC) deep beams has seen considerable headway over the past three decades; however, information on the dynamic shear strength and behavior of RC deep beams under varying rates of loads remains limited. This paper describes the experimental results of 24 RC deep beams with and without shear reinforcements under varying rates of concentrated loading. Results obtained serve as useful data on shear resistance, failure patterns and strain rates corresponding to varying loading rates. An analytical truss model approach proves its efficacy in predicting the dynamic shear resistance under varying loading rates. Furthermore, three-dimensional nonlinear finite element (FE) model is described and the simulation results are verified with the experimental results. A parametric study is then conducted to investigate the influence of longitudinal reinforcement ratio, transverse reinforcement ratio and shear span to effective depth ratio on shear behavior. Subsequently, two empirical equations were proposed by integrating the various parameters to assess the dynamic increase factor (DIF) of maximum resistance under varying rates of concentrated loading.

Dynamic Response and Failure Mechanism of Brittle Rocks Under Combined Compression-Shear Loading Experiments

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Yuan; Dai, Feng

2018-03-01

A novel method is developed for characterizing the mechanical response and failure mechanism of brittle rocks under dynamic compression-shear loading: an inclined cylinder specimen using a modified split Hopkinson pressure bar (SHPB) system. With the specimen axis inclining to the loading direction of SHPB, a shear component can be introduced into the specimen. Both static and dynamic experiments are conducted on sandstone specimens. Given carefully pulse shaping, the dynamic equilibrium of the inclined specimens can be satisfied, and thus the quasi-static data reduction is employed. The normal and shear stress-strain relationships of specimens are subsequently established. The progressive failure process of the specimen illustrated via high-speed photographs manifests a mixed failure mode accommodating both the shear-dominated failure and the localized tensile damage. The elastic and shear moduli exhibit certain loading-path dependence under quasi-static loading but loading-path insensitivity under high loading rates. Loading rate dependence is evidently demonstrated through the failure characteristics involving fragmentation, compression and shear strength and failure surfaces based on Drucker-Prager criterion. Our proposed method is convenient and reliable to study the dynamic response and failure mechanism of rocks under combined compression-shear loading.