WorldWideScience

Sample records for underlying population dynamics

  1. Stochastic population dynamics under resource constraints

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gavane, Ajinkya S., E-mail: ajinkyagavane@gmail.com; Nigam, Rahul, E-mail: rahul.nigam@hyderabad.bits-pilani.ac.in [BITS Pilani Hyderabad Campus, Shameerpet, Hyd - 500078 (India)

    2016-06-02

    This paper investigates the population growth of a certain species in which every generation reproduces thrice over a period of predefined time, under certain constraints of resources needed for survival of population. We study the survival period of a species by randomizing the reproduction probabilities within a window at same predefined ages and the resources are being produced by the working force of the population at a variable rate. This randomness in the reproduction rate makes the population growth stochastic in nature and one cannot predict the exact form of evolution. Hence we study the growth by running simulations for such a population and taking an ensemble averaged over 500 to 5000 such simulations as per the need. While the population reproduces in a stochastic manner, we have implemented a constraint on the amount of resources available for the population. This is important to make the simulations more realistic. The rate of resource production then is tuned to find the rate which suits the survival of the species. We also compute the mean life time of the species corresponding to different resource production rate. Study for these outcomes in the parameter space defined by the reproduction probabilities and rate of resource production is carried out.

  2. Dynamics of buckbrush populations under simulated forest restoration alternatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    David W. Huffman; Margaret M. Moore

    2008-01-01

    Plant population models are valuable tools for assessing ecological tradeoffs between forest management approaches. In addition, these models can provide insight on plant life history patterns and processes important for persistence and recovery of populations in changing environments. In this study, we evaluated a set of ecological restoration alternatives for their...

  3. Global dynamics of oscillator populations under common noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braun, W.; Pikovsky, A.; Matias, M. A.; Colet, P.

    2012-07-01

    Common noise acting on a population of identical oscillators can synchronize them. We develop a description of this process which is not limited to the states close to synchrony, but provides a global picture of the evolution of the ensembles. The theory is based on the Watanabe-Strogatz transformation, allowing us to obtain closed stochastic equations for the global variables. We show that at the initial stage, the order parameter grows linearly in time, while at the later stages the convergence to synchrony is exponentially fast. Furthermore, we extend the theory to nonidentical ensembles with the Lorentzian distribution of natural frequencies and determine the stationary values of the order parameter in dependence on driving noise and mismatch.

  4. Elevated nonlinearity as an indicator of shifts in the dynamics of populations under stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dakos, Vasilis; Glaser, Sarah M; Hsieh, Chih-Hao; Sugihara, George

    2017-03-01

    Populations occasionally experience abrupt changes, such as local extinctions, strong declines in abundance or transitions from stable dynamics to strongly irregular fluctuations. Although most of these changes have important ecological and at times economic implications, they remain notoriously difficult to detect in advance. Here, we study changes in the stability of populations under stress across a variety of transitions. Using a Ricker-type model, we simulate shifts from stable point equilibrium dynamics to cyclic and irregular boom-bust oscillations as well as abrupt shifts between alternative attractors. Our aim is to infer the loss of population stability before such shifts based on changes in nonlinearity of population dynamics. We measure nonlinearity by comparing forecast performance between linear and nonlinear models fitted on reconstructed attractors directly from observed time series. We compare nonlinearity to other suggested leading indicators of instability (variance and autocorrelation). We find that nonlinearity and variance increase in a similar way prior to the shifts. By contrast, autocorrelation is strongly affected by oscillations. Finally, we test these theoretical patterns in datasets of fisheries populations. Our results suggest that elevated nonlinearity could be used as an additional indicator to infer changes in the dynamics of populations under stress. © 2017 The Author(s).

  5. Population dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cooch, E. G.

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available Increases or decreases in the size of populations over space and time are, arguably, the motivation for much of pure and applied ecological research. The fundamental model for the dynamics of any population is straightforward: the net change over time in the abundance of some population is the simple difference between the number of additions (individuals entering the population minus the number of subtractions (individuals leaving the population. Of course, the precise nature of the pattern and process of these additions and subtractions is often complex, and population biology is often replete with fairly dense mathematical representations of both processes. While there is no doubt that analysis of such abstract descriptions of populations has been of considerable value in advancing our, there has often existed a palpable discomfort when the ‘beautiful math’ is faced with the often ‘ugly realities’ of empirical data. In some cases, this attempted merger is abandoned altogether, because of the paucity of ‘good empirical data’ with which the theoretician can modify and evaluate more conceptually–based models. In some cases, the lack of ‘data’ is more accurately represented as a lack of robust estimates of one or more parameters. It is in this arena that methods developed to analyze multiple encounter data from individually marked organisms has seen perhaps the greatest advances. These methods have rapidly evolved to facilitate not only estimation of one or more vital rates, critical to population modeling and analysis, but also to allow for direct estimation of both the dynamics of populations (e.g., Pradel, 1996, and factors influencing those dynamics (e.g., Nichols et al., 2000. The interconnections between the various vital rates, their estimation, and incorporation into models, was the general subject of our plenary presentation by Hal Caswell (Caswell & Fujiwara, 2004. Caswell notes that although interest has traditionally

  6. Death and population dynamics affect mutation rate estimates and evolvability under stress in bacteria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frenoy, Antoine; Bonhoeffer, Sebastian

    2018-05-01

    The stress-induced mutagenesis hypothesis postulates that in response to stress, bacteria increase their genome-wide mutation rate, in turn increasing the chances that a descendant is able to better withstand the stress. This has implications for antibiotic treatment: exposure to subinhibitory doses of antibiotics has been reported to increase bacterial mutation rates and thus probably the rate at which resistance mutations appear and lead to treatment failure. More generally, the hypothesis posits that stress increases evolvability (the ability of a population to generate adaptive genetic diversity) and thus accelerates evolution. Measuring mutation rates under stress, however, is problematic, because existing methods assume there is no death. Yet subinhibitory stress levels may induce a substantial death rate. Death events need to be compensated by extra replication to reach a given population size, thus providing more opportunities to acquire mutations. We show that ignoring death leads to a systematic overestimation of mutation rates under stress. We developed a system based on plasmid segregation that allows us to measure death and division rates simultaneously in bacterial populations. Using this system, we found that a substantial death rate occurs at the tested subinhibitory concentrations previously reported to increase mutation rate. Taking this death rate into account lowers and sometimes removes the signal for stress-induced mutagenesis. Moreover, even when antibiotics increase mutation rate, we show that subinhibitory treatments do not increase genetic diversity and evolvability, again because of effects of the antibiotics on population dynamics. We conclude that antibiotic-induced mutagenesis is overestimated because of death and that understanding evolvability under stress requires accounting for the effects of stress on population dynamics as much as on mutation rate. Our goal here is dual: we show that population dynamics and, in particular, the

  7. Cholera and shigellosis in Bangladesh: similarities and differences in population dynamics under climate forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pascual, M.; Cash, B.; Reiner, R.; King, A.; Emch, M.; Yunus, M.; Faruque, A. S.

    2012-12-01

    The influence of climate variability on the population dynamics of infectious diseases is considered a large scale, regional, phenomenon, and as such, has been previously addressed for cholera with temporal models that do not incorporate fine-scale spatial structure. In our previous work, evidence for a role of ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) on cholera in Bangladesh was elucidated, and shown to influence the regional climate through precipitation. With a probabilistic spatial model for cholera dynamics in the megacity of Dhaka, we found that the action of climate variability (ENSO and flooding) is localized: there is a climate-sensitive urban core that acts to propagate risk to the rest of the city. Here, we consider long-term surveillance data for shigellosis, another diarrheal disease that coexists with cholera in Bangladesh. We compare the patterns of association with climate variables for these two diseases in a rural setting, as well as the spatial structure in their spatio-temporal dynamics in an urban one. Evidence for similar patterns is presented, and discussed in the context of the differences in the routes of transmission of the two diseases and the proposed role of an environmental reservoir in cholera. The similarities provide evidence for a more general influence of hydrology and of socio-economic factors underlying human susceptibility and sanitary conditions.

  8. Population dynamics under increasing environmental variability: implications of climate change for ecological network design criteria

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verboom, J.; Schippers, P.; Cormont, A.; Sterk, M.; Vos, C.C.; Opdam, P.F.M.

    2010-01-01

    There is growing evidence that climate change causes an increase in variation in conditions for plant and animal populations. This increase in variation, e.g. amplified inter-annual variability in temperature and rainfall has population dynamical consequences because it raises the variation in vital

  9. Red Sea Acropora hemprichii Bacterial Population Dynamics under Adverse Anthropogenic Conditions

    KAUST Repository

    Lizcano, Javier

    2012-08-01

    Reef-building corals are cornerstones of life in the oceans. Understanding their interactions with microorganisms and their surrounding physicochemical conditions is important to comprehend reef functioning and ultimately protect coral reef ecosystems. Corals associate with a complex and specific array of microorganisms that supposedly affect their physiology and therefore can significantly determine the condition of a coral ecosystem. As environmental conditions may shape bacterial diversity and ecology in the coral symbiosis, ecosystem changes might have unfavorable consequences for the holobiont, to date poorly understood. Here, we were studying microbial community changes in A. hemprichii as a consequence of simulated eutrophication and overfishing over a period of 16 weeks by using in situ caging and slow release fertilizer treatments in an undisturbed Red Sea reef (22.18ºN, 38.57ºW). We used 16S rDNA amplicon sequencing to evaluate the individual and combined effects of overnutrification and fishing pressure, two of the most common local threats to coral reefs. With our data we hope to better understand bacterial population dynamics under anthropogenic influences and its role in coral resilience. Projecting further, this data will be useful to better predict the consequences of human activity on reef ecosystems.

  10. Smallholder dairy systems in the Kenya highlands: cattle population dynamics under increasing intensification

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bebe, B.O.; Udo, H.M.J.; Rowlands, G.J.; Thorpe, W.

    2003-01-01

    A cross-sectional stratified random sample survey of 1755 households in the Kenya highlands was conducted between June 1996 and April 1998 to quantify cattle population dynamics in smallholder herds. The free-, semi-zero- and zero-grazing systems practised represented increasing levels of

  11. Scaling of the mean and variance of population dynamics under fluctuating regimes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pertoldi, Cino; Faurby, S; Reed, D H; Knape, J; Björklund, M; Lundberg, P; Kaitala, V; Loeschcke, V; Bach, L A

    2014-12-01

    Theoretical ecologists have long sought to understand how the persistence of populations depends on the interactions between exogenous (biotic and abiotic) and endogenous (e.g., demographic and genetic) drivers of population dynamics. Recent work focuses on the autocorrelation structure of environmental perturbations and its effects on the persistence of populations. Accurate estimation of extinction times and especially determination of the mechanisms affecting extinction times is important for biodiversity conservation. Here we examine the interaction between environmental fluctuations and the scaling effect of the mean population size with its variance. We investigate how interactions between environmental and demographic stochasticity can affect the mean time to extinction, change optimal patch size dynamics, and how it can alter the often-assumed linear relationship between the census size and the effective population size. The importance of the correlation between environmental and demographic variation depends on the relative importance of the two types of variation. We found the correlation to be important when the two types of variation were approximately equal; however, the importance of the correlation diminishes as one source of variation dominates. The implications of these findings are discussed from a conservation and eco-evolutionary point of view.

  12. The Tragedy of the Commons : The Dynamic Adjustment under Unregulated Population Growth

    OpenAIRE

    早川 弘晃

    2015-01-01

    The tragedy of the commons is often represented in terms of Nash equilibrium of a static game of complete information. Such elucidation is misleading since it does not capture the dynamics of an underlying process that eventually invites the tragedy as the number of the users increases without limit. Using a bucolic case as an example, this paper examines Hardin’s thesis from the standpoint of a dynamic process by elucidating the inherent logic of entry that is inevitable.The key to this proc...

  13. Experiments with mathematical models to simulate hepatitis A population dynamics under different levels of endemicity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariana Alves de Guimaraens

    Full Text Available Heterogeneous access to sanitation services is a characteristic of communities in Brazil. This heterogeneity leads to different patterns of hepatitis A endemicity: areas with low infection rates have higher probability of outbreaks, and areas with higher infection rates have high prevalence and low risk of outbreaks. Here we develop a mathematical model to study the effect of variable exposure to infection on the epidemiological dynamics of hepatitis A. Differential equations were used to simulate population dynamics and were numerically solved using the software StellaTM. The model uses parameters from serological surveys in the Greater Metropolitan Rio de Janeiro, in areas with different sanitation conditions. Computer simulation experiments show that the range of infection rates observed in these communities are characteristic of high and low levels of hepatitis A endemicity. We also found that the functional relationship between sanitation and exposure to infection is an important component of the model. The analysis of the public health impact of partial sanitation requires a better understanding of this relationship.

  14. Projecting pest population dynamics under global warming: the combined effect of inter- and intra-annual variations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zidon, Royi; Tsueda, Hirotsugu; Morin, Efrat; Morin, Shai

    2016-06-01

    The typical short generation length of insects makes their population dynamics highly sensitive not only to mean annual temperatures but also to their intra-annual variations. To consider the combined effect of both thermal factors under global warming, we propose a modeling framework that links general circulation models (GCMs) with a stochastic weather generator and population dynamics models to predict species population responses to inter- and intra-annual temperature changes. This framework was utilized to explore future changes in populations of Bemisia tabaci, an invasive insect pest-species that affects multiple agricultural systems in the Mediterranean region. We considered three locations representing different pest status and climatic conditions: Montpellier (France), Seville (Spain), and Beit-Jamal (Israel). We produced ensembles of local daily temperature realizations representing current and future (mid-21st century) climatic conditions under two emission scenarios for the three locations. Our simulations predicted a significant increase in the average number of annual generations and in population size, and a significant lengthening of the growing season in all three locations. A negative effect was found only in Seville for the summer season, where future temperatures lead to a reduction in population size. High variability in population size was observed between years with similar annual mean temperatures, suggesting a strong effect of intra-annual temperature variation. Critical periods were from late spring to late summer in Montpellier and from late winter to early summer in Seville and Beit-Jamal. Although our analysis suggested that earlier seasonal activity does not necessarily lead to increased populations load unless an additional generation is produced, it is highly likely that the insect will become a significant pest of open-fields at Mediterranean latitudes above 40° during the next 50 years. Our simulations also implied that current

  15. Dynamics of buckbrush populations under simulated forest restoration alternatives (P-53)

    Science.gov (United States)

    David W. Huffman; Margaret M. Moore

    2008-01-01

    Plant population models are valuable tools for assessing ecological tradeoffs between forest management approaches. In addition, these models can provide insight on plant life history patterns and processes important for persistence and recovery of populations in changing environments. In this study, we evaluated a set of ecological restoration alternatives for their...

  16. Population dynamics of European honey bee genotypes under different environmental conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hatjina, Fani; Costa, Cecilia; Büchler, Ralph

    2014-01-01

    - environment interactions and their effects on colony development, which we use in this study as a measure of their vitality. We found that colonies placed in Southern Europe tend to have lower adult bee populations compared to colonies placed in colder conditions, while the brood population tends...... to be smaller in the North, thus reflecting the shorter longevity of bees in warmer climates and the shorter brood rearing period in the North. We found that both genotype and environment significantly affect colony development, and that specific adaptations exist, especially in terms of adult bee population...

  17. Microbial Character Related Sulfur Cycle under Dynamic Environmental Factors Based on the Microbial Population Analysis in Sewerage System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Qian; Shi, Hanchang; Liu, Yanchen

    2017-01-01

    The undesired sulfur cycle derived by microbial population can ultimately causes the serious problems of sewerage systems. However, the microbial community characters under dynamic environment factors in actual sewerage system is still not enough. This current study aimed to character the distributions and compositions of microbial communities that participate in the sulfur cycle under the dynamic environmental conditions in a local sewerage system. To accomplish this, microbial community compositions were assessed using 454 high-throughput sequencing (16S rDNA) combined with dsrB gene-based denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis. The results indicated that a higher diversity of microbial species was present at locations in sewers with high concentrations of H 2 S. Actinobacteria and Proteobacteria were dominant in the sewerage system, while Actinobacteria alone were dominant in regions with high concentrations of H 2 S. Specifically, the unique operational taxonomic units could aid to characterize the distinct microbial communities within a sewerage manhole. The proportion of sulfate-reducing bacteria, each sulfur-oxidizing bacteria (SOB) were strongly correlated with the liquid parameters (DO, ORP, COD, Sulfide, NH 3 -N), while the Mycobacterium and Acidophilic SOB (M&A) was strongly correlated with gaseous factors within the sewer, such as H 2 S, CH 4 , and CO. Identifying the distributions and proportions of critical microbial communities within sewerage systems could provide insights into how the microbial sulfur cycle is affected by the dynamic environmental conditions that exist in sewers and might be useful for explaining the potential sewerage problems.

  18. Dynamic Analytical Capability to Better Understand and Anticipate Extremist Shifts Within Populations under Authoritarian Regimes.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernard, Michael Lewis [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-11-01

    The purpose of this work is to create a generalizable data- and theory-supported capability to better understand and anticipate (with quantifiable uncertainty): 1) how the dynamics of allegiance formations between various groups and society are impacted by active conflict and by third-party interventions and 2) how/why extremist allegiances co-evolve over time due to changing geopolitical, sociocultural, and military conditions.

  19. Seasonal population dynamics of Homalodisca vitripennis (Hemiptera: Cicadellidae) in sweet orange trees maintained under continuous deficit irrigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krugner, Rodrigo; Groves, Russell L; Johnson, Marshall W; Flores, Arnel P; Hagler, James R; Morse, Joseph G

    2009-06-01

    A 2-yr study was conducted in a citrus orchard (Citrus sinensis L. Osbeck cultivar Valencia) to determine the influence of plant water stress on the population dynamics of glassy-winged sharpshooter, Homalodisca vitripennis (Germar). Experimental treatments included irrigation at 100% of the crop evapotranspiration rate (ET(c)) and continuous deficit-irrigation regimens at 80 and 60% ET(c). Microclimate and plant conditions monitored included temperature and humidity in the tree canopy, leaf surface temperature, water potential, and fruit quality and yield. Glassy-winged sharpshooter population densities and activity were monitored weekly by a combination of visual inspections, beat net sampling, and trapping. Glassy-winged sharpshooter populations were negatively affected by severe plant water stress; however, population densities were not linearly related to decreasing water availability in plants. Citrus trees irrigated at 60% ET(c) had significantly warmer leaves, lower xylem water potential, and consequently hosted fewer glassy-winged sharpshooter eggs, nymphs, and adults than trees irrigated at 80% ET(c). Citrus trees irrigated at 100% ET(c) hosted similar numbers of glassy-winged sharpshooter stages as trees irrigated at 60% ET(c) and a lower number of glassy-winged sharpshooter nymphs than the 80% ET(c) treatment, specifically during the nymphal density peak in mid-April to early July. Irrigation treatments did not affect populations of monitored natural enemies. Although the adult glassy-winged sharpshooter population was reduced, on average, by 50% in trees under severe water stress, the total number of fruit and number of fruit across several fruit grade categories were significantly lower in the 60% ET(c) than in the 80 and 100% ET(c) irrigation treatments.

  20. Stochastic Delay Population Dynamics under Regime Switching: Global Solutions and Extinction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zheng Wu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with a delay Lotka-Volterra model under regime switching diffusion in random environment. By using generalized Itô formula, Gronwall inequality and Young’s inequality, some sufficient conditions for existence of global positive solutions and stochastically ultimate boundedness are obtained, respectively. Finally, an example is given to illustrate the main results.

  1. Market Squid Population Dynamics

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset contains population dynamics data on paralarvae, juvenile and adult market squid collected off California and the US Pacific Northwest. These data were...

  2. Fish population dynamics

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Gulland, J. A

    1977-01-01

    This book describes how the dynamics of fish populations can be analysed in terms of the factors affecting their rates of growth, mortality and reproduction, with particular emphasis on the effects of fishing...

  3. Seasonal Population Dynamics of Homalodisca vitripennis (Germar) (Hemiptera: Cicadellidae) in Sweet Orange Trees Maintained under Continuous Deficit Irrigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    A two-year study was conducted in a citrus orchard [Citrus sinensis (L.) Osbeck cv. ‘Valencia’] to determine influence of plant water stress on population dynamics of glassy-winged sharpshooter (GWSS), Homalodisca vitripennis (Germar). Experimental treatments included irrigation at 100% of the crop...

  4. Desiccation and Mortality Dynamics in Seedlings of Different European Beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) Populations under Extreme Drought Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolte, Andreas; Czajkowski, Tomasz; Cocozza, Claudia; Tognetti, Roberto; de Miguel, Marina; Pšidová, Eva; Ditmarová, Ĺubica; Dinca, Lucian; Delzon, Sylvain; Cochard, Hervè; Ræbild, Anders; de Luis, Martin; Cvjetkovic, Branislav; Heiri, Caroline; Müller, Jürgen

    2016-01-01

    European beech (Fagus sylvatica L., hereafter beech), one of the major native tree species in Europe, is known to be drought sensitive. Thus, the identification of critical thresholds of drought impact intensity and duration are of high interest for assessing the adaptive potential of European beech to climate change in its native range. In a common garden experiment with one-year-old seedlings originating from central and marginal origins in six European countries (Denmark, Germany, France, Romania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Spain), we applied extreme drought stress and observed desiccation and mortality processes among the different populations and related them to plant water status (predawn water potential, ΨPD) and soil hydraulic traits. For the lethal drought assessment, we used a critical threshold of soil water availability that is reached when 50% mortality in seedling populations occurs (LD50SWA). We found significant population differences in LD50SWA (10.5–17.8%), and mortality dynamics that suggest a genetic difference in drought resistance between populations. The LD50SWA values correlate significantly with the mean growing season precipitation at population origins, but not with the geographic margins of beech range. Thus, beech range marginality may be more due to climatic conditions than to geographic range. The outcome of this study suggests the genetic variation has a major influence on the varying adaptive potential of the investigated populations. PMID:27379105

  5. Approximate probabilistic cellular automata for the dynamics of single-species populations under discrete logisticlike growth with and without weak Allee effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendonça, J Ricardo G; Gevorgyan, Yeva

    2017-05-01

    We investigate one-dimensional elementary probabilistic cellular automata (PCA) whose dynamics in first-order mean-field approximation yields discrete logisticlike growth models for a single-species unstructured population with nonoverlapping generations. Beginning with a general six-parameter model, we find constraints on the transition probabilities of the PCA that guarantee that the ensuing approximations make sense in terms of population dynamics and classify the valid combinations thereof. Several possible models display a negative cubic term that can be interpreted as a weak Allee factor. We also investigate the conditions under which a one-parameter PCA derived from the more general six-parameter model can generate valid population growth dynamics. Numerical simulations illustrate the behavior of some of the PCA found.

  6. Wildlife Population Dynamics in Human-Dominated Landscapes under Community-Based Conservation: The Example of Nakuru Wildlife Conservancy, Kenya.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph O Ogutu

    Full Text Available Wildlife conservation is facing numerous and mounting challenges on private and communal lands in Africa, including in Kenya. We analyze the population dynamics of 44 common wildlife species in relation to rainfall variation in the Nakuru Wildlife Conservancy (NWC, located in the Nakuru-Naivasha region of Kenya, based on ground total counts carried out twice each year from March 1996 to May 2015. Rainfall in the region was quasi-periodic with cycle periods dependent on the rainfall component and varying from 2.8 years for the dry season to 10.9 years for the wet season. These oscillations are associated with frequent severe droughts and food scarcity for herbivores. The trends for the 44 wildlife species showed five general patterns during 1996-2015. 1 Steinbuck, bushbuck, hartebeest and greater kudu numbers declined persistently and significantly throughout 1996-2015 and thus merit the greatest conservation attention. 2 Klipspringer, mongoose, oribi, porcupine, cheetah, leopard, ostrich and Sykes monkey numbers also decreased noticeably but not significantly between 1996 and 2015. 3 Dik dik, eland, African hare, Jackal, duiker, hippo and Thomson's gazelle numbers first increased and then declined between 1996 and 2015 but only significantly for duiker and hippo. 4 Aardvark, serval cat, colobus monkey, bat-eared fox, reedbuck, hyena and baboon numbers first declined and then increased but only the increases in reedbuck and baboon numbers were significant. 5 Grant's gazelle, Grevy's zebra, lion, spring hare, Burchell's zebra, bushpig, white rhino, rock hyrax, topi, oryx, vervet monkey, guinea fowl, giraffe, and wildebeest numbers increased consistently between 1996 and 2015. The increase was significant only for rock hyrax, topi, vervet monkey, guinea fowl, giraffe and wildebeest. 6 Impala, buffalo, warthog, and waterbuck, numbers increased significantly and then seemed to level off between 1996 and 2015. The aggregate biomass of primates and

  7. DISPLACE: a dynamic, individual-based model for spatial fishing planning and effort displacement: Integrating underlying fish population models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bastardie, Francois; Nielsen, J. Rasmus; Miethe, Tanja

    or to the alteration of individual fishing patterns. We demonstrate that integrating the spatial activity of vessels and local fish stock abundance dynamics allow for interactions and more realistic predictions of fishermen behaviour, revenues and stock abundance......We previously developed a spatially explicit, individual-based model (IBM) evaluating the bio-economic efficiency of fishing vessel movements between regions according to the catching and targeting of different species based on the most recent high resolution spatial fishery data. The main purpose...... was to test the effects of alternative fishing effort allocation scenarios related to fuel consumption, energy efficiency (value per litre of fuel), sustainable fish stock harvesting, and profitability of the fisheries. The assumption here was constant underlying resource availability. Now, an advanced...

  8. Memory dynamics under stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quaedflieg, Conny W E M; Schwabe, Lars

    2018-03-01

    Stressful events have a major impact on memory. They modulate memory formation in a time-dependent manner, closely linked to the temporal profile of action of major stress mediators, in particular catecholamines and glucocorticoids. Shortly after stressor onset, rapidly acting catecholamines and fast, non-genomic glucocorticoid actions direct cognitive resources to the processing and consolidation of the ongoing threat. In parallel, control of memory is biased towards rather rigid systems, promoting habitual forms of memory allowing efficient processing under stress, at the expense of "cognitive" systems supporting memory flexibility and specificity. In this review, we discuss the implications of this shift in the balance of multiple memory systems for the dynamics of the memory trace. Specifically, stress appears to hinder the incorporation of contextual details into the memory trace, to impede the integration of new information into existing knowledge structures, to impair the flexible generalisation across past experiences, and to hamper the modification of memories in light of new information. Delayed, genomic glucocorticoid actions might reverse the control of memory, thus restoring homeostasis and "cognitive" control of memory again.

  9. Biofilm population dynamics in a trickle-bed bioreactor used for the biodegradation of aromatic hydrocarbons from waste gas under transient conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hekmat, D; Feuchtinger, A; Stephan, M; Vortmeyer, D

    2004-04-01

    The dynamics of a multispecies biofilm population in a laboratory-scale trickle-bed bioreactor for the treatment of waste gas was examined. The model pollutant was a VOC-mixture of polyalkylated benzenes called Solvesso 100. Fluorescence in-situ hybridization (FISH) was applied in order to characterise the population composition. The bioreactor was operated under transient conditions by applying pollutant concentration shifts and a starvation phase. Only about 10% of the biofilm mass were cells, the rest consisted of extracellular polymeric substances (EPS). The average fraction of Solvesso 100-degrading cells during pollutant supply periods was less than 10%. About 60% of the cells were saprophytes and about 30% were inactive cells. During pollutant concentration shift experiments, the bioreactor performance adapted within a few hours. The biofilm population exhibited a dependency upon the direction of the shifts. The population reacted within days after a shift-down and within weeks after a shift-up. The pollutant-degraders reacted significantly faster compared to the other cells. During the long-term starvation phase, a shift of the population composition took place. However, this change of composition as well as the degree of metabolic activity was completely reversible. A direct correlation between the biodegradation rate of the bioreactor and the number of pollutant-degrading cells present in the biofilm could not be obtained due to insufficient experimental evidence.

  10. Africa population dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Akinyoade, A.; Damen, J.C.M.; Dietz, A.J.; Kilama, B.B.; Omme, van, G.

    2014-01-01

    Africa's population has grown extremely rapidly over the last fifty years from 289 million inhabitants in 1961 to more than 1 billion today. This is a growth rate of 350% in just half a century and the number of urban residents has increased even more quickly: from 65 million in 1960 to 460 million today, or from 20% to 46% of the population as a whole. Demographers predict that soon more than 50% of all Africans will be living in cities. The average life expectancy, literacy rates and primar...

  11. Africa population dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Akinyoade, A.; Damen, J.C.M.; Dietz, A.J.; Kilama, B.B.; Omme, van G.

    2014-01-01

    Africa's population has grown extremely rapidly over the last fifty years from 289 million inhabitants in 1961 to more than 1 billion today. This is a growth rate of 350% in just half a century and the number of urban residents has increased even more quickly: from 65 million in 1960 to 460 million

  12. Dynamical systems in population biology

    CERN Document Server

    Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

    2017-01-01

    This research monograph provides an introduction to the theory of nonautonomous semiflows with applications to population dynamics. It develops dynamical system approaches to various evolutionary equations such as difference, ordinary, functional, and partial differential equations, and pays more attention to periodic and almost periodic phenomena. The presentation includes persistence theory, monotone dynamics, periodic and almost periodic semiflows, basic reproduction ratios, traveling waves, and global analysis of prototypical population models in ecology and epidemiology. Research mathematicians working with nonlinear dynamics, particularly those interested in applications to biology, will find this book useful. It may also be used as a textbook or as supplementary reading for a graduate special topics course on the theory and applications of dynamical systems. Dr. Xiao-Qiang Zhao is a University Research Professor at Memorial University of Newfoundland, Canada. His main research interests involve applied...

  13. HABITAT AND HABITANTS IN THE CATALAN PYRENEES: DYNAMICS AND POLICIES FOR UNDER-POPULATED HIGH MOUNTAIN VILLAGES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Rosa Bonet Casas

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper is the result of a research carried out in 2006 in a partnership between the Universitat de Barcelona and the Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, which was aimed to define guidelines to recover the architectural and scenic values of villages in almost abandoned Pyrenean valleys in Catalunya. The research studied at different levels (geographical, urban and architectural the villages of several valleys in order to find out the factors more determinant to explain their degree of revitalization or decay. As a result of the research, the paper presents some conclusions on how to intervene on those pyrenean valleys: to work at the level of geographical units rather than with singular villages or individuals; to establish degrees of priority of intervention between the valleys in order to increase the efficiency of the actions; to ensure high quality infrastructure levels on the selected valleys; to fix strict limits to the construction of new vacation houses in high mountain villages in order to orient the real state demand to the rehabilitation of existing buildings; to create a program of subsidies to help the permanent population working on the primary sector to rehabilitate their dwellings; to promote the display of the natural and cultural richness of the valleys as a main factor for their revitalization; to support private and civic actions oriented to the recover of the valleys.

  14. Evolutionary dynamics of cooperation in neutral populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szolnoki, Attila; Perc, Matjaž

    2018-01-01

    Cooperation is a difficult proposition in the face of Darwinian selection. Those that defect have an evolutionary advantage over cooperators who should therefore die out. However, spatial structure enables cooperators to survive through the formation of homogeneous clusters, which is the hallmark of network reciprocity. Here we go beyond this traditional setup and study the spatiotemporal dynamics of cooperation in a population of populations. We use the prisoner's dilemma game as the mathematical model and show that considering several populations simultaneously gives rise to fascinating spatiotemporal dynamics and pattern formation. Even the simplest assumption that strategies between different populations are payoff-neutral with one another results in the spontaneous emergence of cyclic dominance, where defectors of one population become prey of cooperators in the other population, and vice versa. Moreover, if social interactions within different populations are characterized by significantly different temptations to defect, we observe that defectors in the population with the largest temptation counterintuitively vanish the fastest, while cooperators that hang on eventually take over the whole available space. Our results reveal that considering the simultaneous presence of different populations significantly expands the complexity of evolutionary dynamics in structured populations, and it allows us to understand the stability of cooperation under adverse conditions that could never be bridged by network reciprocity alone.

  15. Nonlinear Relaxation in Population Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cirone, Markus A.; de Pasquale, Ferdinando; Spagnolo, Bernardo

    We analyze the nonlinear relaxation of a complex ecosystem composed of many interacting species. The ecological system is described by generalized Lotka-Volterra equations with a multiplicative noise. The transient dynamics is studied in the framework of the mean field theory and with random interaction between the species. We focus on the statistical properties of the asymptotic behaviour of the time integral of the ith population and on the distribution of the population and of the local field.

  16. Population dynamics of rural Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bariabagar, H

    1978-01-01

    2 rounds of the national sample surveys, conducted by the central statistical office of Ethiopia during 1964-1967 and 1969-1971, provide the only comprehensive demographic data for the country and are the basis for this discussion of rural Ethiopia's population dynamics. The population of Ethiopia is predominantly rural. Agglomerations of 2000 and over inhabitants constitute about 14% of the population, and this indicates that Ethiopia has a low level of urbanization. In rural Ethiopia, international migration was negligent in the 1970's and the age structure can be assumed to be the results of past trends of fertility and mortality conditions. The reported crude birthrate (38.2), crude death rate (12.3) and infant mortality rate (90) of rural Ethiopia fall short of the averages for African countries. Prospects of population growth of rural Ethiopia would be immense. At the rate of natural increase of between 2.4 and 3.0% per annum, the population would double in 24-29 years. Regarding population issues, the programs of the National Democratic Revolution of Ethiopia faces the following main challenging problems: 1) carrying out national population censuses in order to obtain basic information for socialist planning; 2) minimizing or curtailing the existing high urban growth rates; 3) reducing rapidly growing population; and 5) mobilizing Ethiopian women to participate in the social, economic and political life of the country in order to create favorable conditions for future fertility reduction.

  17. Population dynamics in variable environments

    CERN Document Server

    Tuljapurkar, Shripad

    1990-01-01

    Demography relates observable facts about individuals to the dynamics of populations. If the dynamics are linear and do not change over time, the classical theory of Lotka (1907) and Leslie (1945) is the central tool of demography. This book addresses the situation when the assumption of constancy is dropped. In many practical situations, a population will display unpredictable variation over time in its vital rates, which must then be described in statistical terms. Most of this book is concerned with the theory of populations which are subject to random temporal changes in their vital rates, although other kinds of variation (e. g. , cyclical) are also dealt with. The central questions are: how does temporal variation work its way into a population's future, and how does it affect our interpretation of a population's past. The results here are directed at demographers of humans and at popula­ tion biologists. The uneven mathematical level is dictated by the material, but the book should be accessible to re...

  18. Towards a Population Dynamics Theory for Evolutionary Computing: Learning from Biological Population Dynamics in Nature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Zhanshan (Sam)

    In evolutionary computing (EC), population size is one of the critical parameters that a researcher has to deal with. Hence, it was no surprise that the pioneers of EC, such as De Jong (1975) and Holland (1975), had already studied the population sizing from the very beginning of EC. What is perhaps surprising is that more than three decades later, we still largely depend on the experience or ad-hoc trial-and-error approach to set the population size. For example, in a recent monograph, Eiben and Smith (2003) indicated: "In almost all EC applications, the population size is constant and does not change during the evolutionary search." Despite enormous research on this issue in recent years, we still lack a well accepted theory for population sizing. In this paper, I propose to develop a population dynamics theory forEC with the inspiration from the population dynamics theory of biological populations in nature. Essentially, the EC population is considered as a dynamic system over time (generations) and space (search space or fitness landscape), similar to the spatial and temporal dynamics of biological populations in nature. With this conceptual mapping, I propose to 'transplant' the biological population dynamics theory to EC via three steps: (i) experimentally test the feasibility—whether or not emulating natural population dynamics improves the EC performance; (ii) comparatively study the underlying mechanisms—why there are improvements, primarily via statistical modeling analysis; (iii) conduct theoretical analysis with theoretical models such as percolation theory and extended evolutionary game theory that are generally applicable to both EC and natural populations. This article is a summary of a series of studies we have performed to achieve the general goal [27][30]-[32]. In the following, I start with an extremely brief introduction on the theory and models of natural population dynamics (Sections 1 & 2). In Sections 4 to 6, I briefly discuss three

  19. Allee effects on population dynamics in continuous (overlapping) case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Merdan, H.; Duman, O.; Akin, O.; Celik, C.

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents the stability analysis of equilibrium points of a continuous population dynamics with delay under the Allee effect which occurs at low population density. The mathematical results and numerical simulations show the stabilizing role of the Allee effects on the stability of the equilibrium point of this population dynamics.

  20. Nonlinear dynamics of interacting populations

    CERN Document Server

    Bazykin, Alexander D

    1998-01-01

    This book contains a systematic study of ecological communities of two or three interacting populations. Starting from the Lotka-Volterra system, various regulating factors are considered, such as rates of birth and death, predation and competition. The different factors can have a stabilizing or a destabilizing effect on the community, and their interplay leads to increasingly complicated behavior. Studying and understanding this path to greater dynamical complexity of ecological systems constitutes the backbone of this book. On the mathematical side, the tool of choice is the qualitative the

  1. Population Model with a Dynamic Food Supply

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickman, Ronald; da Silva Nascimento, Jonas

    2009-09-01

    We propose a simple population model including the food supply as a dynamic variable. In the model, survival of an organism depends on a certain minimum rate of food consumption; a higher rate of consumption is required for reproduction. We investigate the stationary behavior under steady food input, and the transient behavior of growth and decay when food is present initially but is not replenished. Under a periodic food supply, the system exhibits period-doubling bifurcations and chaos in certain ranges of the reproduction rate. Bifurcations and chaos are favored by a slow reproduction rate and a long period of food-supply oscillation.

  2. Evolutionary dynamics under interactive diversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Qi; Li, Aming; Wang, Long

    2017-10-01

    As evidenced by many cases in human societies, individuals often make different behavior decisions in different interactions, and adaptively adjust their behavior in changeable interactive scenarios. However, up to now, how such diverse interactive behavior affects cooperation dynamics has still remained unknown. Here we develop a general framework of interactive diversity, which models individuals’ separated behavior against distinct opponents and their adaptive adjustment in response to opponents’ strategies, to explore the evolution of cooperation. We find that interactive diversity enables individuals to reciprocate every single opponent, and thus sustains large-scale reciprocal interactions. Our work witnesses an impressive boost of cooperation for a notably extensive range of parameters and for all pairwise games. These results are robust against well-mixed and various networked populations, and against degree-normalized and cumulative payoff patterns. From the perspective of network dynamics, distinguished from individuals competing for nodes in most previous work, in this paper, the system evolves in the form of behavior disseminating along edges. We propose a theoretical method based on evolution of edges, which predicts well both the frequency of cooperation and the compact cooperation clusters. Our thorough investigation clarifies the positive role of interactive diversity in resolving social dilemmas and highlights the significance of understanding evolutionary dynamics from the viewpoint of edge dynamics.

  3. Evolutionary Dynamics and Diversity in Microbial Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Joel; Fisher, Daniel

    2013-03-01

    Diseases such as flu and cancer adapt at an astonishing rate. In large part, viruses and cancers are so difficult to prevent because they are continually evolving. Controlling such ``evolutionary diseases'' requires a better understanding of the underlying evolutionary dynamics. It is conventionally assumed that adaptive mutations are rare and therefore will occur and sweep through the population in succession. Recent experiments using modern sequencing technologies have illuminated the many ways in which real population sequence data does not conform to the predictions of conventional theory. We consider a very simple model of asexual evolution and perform simulations in a range of parameters thought to be relevant for microbes and cancer. Simulation results reveal complex evolutionary dynamics typified by competition between lineages with different sets of adaptive mutations. This dynamical process leads to a distribution of mutant gene frequencies different than expected under the conventional assumption that adaptive mutations are rare. Simulated gene frequencies share several conspicuous features with data collected from laboratory-evolved yeast and the worldwide population of influenza.

  4. Dynamic single-cell analysis of Saccharomyces cerevisiae under process perturbation: Comparison of different methods for monitoring the intensity of population heterogeneity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Delvigne, Frank; Baert, Jonathan; Gofflot, Sébastien

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Single cell biology has attracted a lot of attention in recent years and has led to numerous fundamental results pointing out the heterogeneity of clonal cell populations. In this context, microbial phenotypic heterogeneity under bioprocessing conditions needs to be further investigat...

  5. Analysis of Population Dynamics in World Economy

    OpenAIRE

    Martin, Gress

    2011-01-01

    Population dynamics is an important topic in current world economy. The size and growth of population have an impact on economic growth and development of individual countries and vice versa, economic development influences demographic variables in a country. The aim of the article is to analyze historical development of world population, population stock change and relations between population stock change and economic development.

  6. Allee effects on population dynamics with delay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Celik, C.; Merdan, H.; Duman, O.; Akin, O.

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, we study the stability analysis of equilibrium points of population dynamics with delay when the Allee effect occurs at low population density. Mainly, our mathematical results and numerical simulations point to the stabilizing effect of the Allee effects on population dynamics with delay

  7. Delay differential systems for tick population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Guihong; Thieme, Horst R; Zhu, Huaiping

    2015-11-01

    Ticks play a critical role as vectors in the transmission and spread of Lyme disease, an emerging infectious disease which can cause severe illness in humans or animals. To understand the transmission dynamics of Lyme disease and other tick-borne diseases, it is necessary to investigate the population dynamics of ticks. Here, we formulate a system of delay differential equations which models the stage structure of the tick population. Temperature can alter the length of time delays in each developmental stage, and so the time delays can vary geographically (and seasonally which we do not consider). We define the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] of stage structured tick populations. The tick population is uniformly persistent if [Formula: see text] and dies out if [Formula: see text]. We present sufficient conditions under which the unique positive equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stable. In general, the positive equilibrium can be unstable and the system show oscillatory behavior. These oscillations are primarily due to negative feedback within the tick system, but can be enhanced by the time delays of the different developmental stages.

  8. Population dynamics in vasopressin cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leng, Gareth; Brown, Colin; Sabatier, Nancy; Scott, Victoria

    2008-01-01

    Most neurons sense and code change, and when presented with a constant stimulus they adapt, so as to be able to detect a fresh change. However, for some things it is important to know their absolute level; to encode such information, neurons must sustain their response to an unchanging stimulus while remaining able to respond to a change in that stimulus. One system that encodes the absolute level of a stimulus is the vasopressin system, which generates a hormonal signal that is proportional to plasma osmolality. Vasopressin cells sense plasma osmolality and secrete appropriate levels of vasopressin from the neurohypophysis as needed to control water excretion; this requires sustained secretion under basal conditions and the ability to increase (or decrease) secretion should plasma osmolality change. Here we explore the mechanisms that enable vasopressin cells to fulfill this function, and consider how coordination between the cells might distribute the secretory load across the population of vasopressin cells. 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  9. Population dynamics at high Reynolds number

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perlekar, P.; Benzi, R.; Nelson, D.R.; Toschi, F.

    2010-01-01

    We study the statistical properties of population dynamics evolving in a realistic two-dimensional compressible turbulent velocity field. We show that the interplay between turbulent dynamics and population growth and saturation leads to quasi-localization and a remarkable reduction in the carrying

  10. [Population dynamics and development in the Caribbean].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boland, B

    1995-12-01

    The impact is examined of socioeconomic factors on Caribbean population dynamics. This work begins by describing the socioeconomic context of the late 1980s and early 1990s, under the influence of the economic changes and crises of the 1980s. The small size, openness, dependency, and lack of diversification of the Caribbean economies have made them vulnerable to external pressures. The Bahamas and Belize had economic growth rates exceeding 5% annually during 1981-90, but most of the countries had low or negative growth. Unemployment, poverty, the structural adjustment measures adopted in the mid-1980s, and declines in social spending exacerbated general economic conditions. In broad terms, the population situation of the Caribbean is marked by diversity of sizes and growth rates. A few countries oriented toward services and tourism had demographic growth rates exceeding 3%, while at least 7 had almost no growth or negative growth. Population growth rates reflected different combinations of natural increase and migration. Crude death rates ranged from around 5/1000 to 11/1000, except in Haiti, and all countries of the region except Haiti had life expectancies of 70 years or higher. Despite fertility decline, the average crude birth rate was still relatively high at 26/1000, and the rate of natural increase was 1.8% annually for the region. Nearly half of the regional population was under 15 or over 65 years old. The body of this work provides greater detail on mortality patterns, variations by sex, infant mortality, causes of death, and implications for policy. The discussion of fertility includes general patterns and trends, age specific fertility rates, contraceptive prevalence, levels of adolescent fertility and age factors in adolescent sexual behavior, characteristics of adolescent unions, contraceptive usage, health and social consequences of adolescent childbearing, and the search for solutions. The final section describes the magnitude and causes of

  11. Dynamic analysis of a parasite population model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sibona, G. J.; Condat, C. A.

    2002-03-01

    We study the dynamics of a model that describes the competitive interaction between an invading species (a parasite) and its antibodies in an living being. This model was recently used to examine the dynamical competition between Tripanosoma cruzi and its antibodies during the acute phase of Chagas' disease. Depending on the antibody properties, the model yields three types of outcomes, corresponding, respectively, to healing, chronic disease, and host death. Here, we study the dynamics of the parasite-antibody interaction with the help of simulations, obtaining phase trajectories and phase diagrams for the system. We show that, under certain conditions, the size of the parasite inoculation can be crucial for the infection outcome and that a retardation in the stimulated production of an antibody species may result in the parasite gaining a definitive advantage. We also find a criterion for the relative sizes of the parameters that are required if parasite-generated decoys are indeed to help the invasion. Decoys may also induce a qualitatively different outcome: a limit cycle for the antibody-parasite population phase trajectories.

  12. Population dynamics and population control of Galium aparine L.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weide, van der R.Y.

    1993-01-01

    The population biology of Galium aparine L. needs to be better understood, in order to be able to rationalize decisions about the short- and long-term control of this weed species for different cropping practices.

    A population dynamics model was developed to

  13. provisional analysis of population dynamics

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Nicholas Mitchison

    2018-01-11

    Jan 11, 2018 ... Western populations covered by OMIM, or are so mediated to a lesser extent. This we attribute ... tlenecks affected southern Asia: a coalescence analysis of ... included comprehensive survey of previous work (Atkin- son et al.

  14. Dynamic stability under sudden loads

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simitses, G.J.

    1998-01-01

    The concept of dynamic stability of elastic structures subjected to sudden (step) loads is discussed. The various criteria and related methodologies for estimating critical conditions are presented with the emphasis on their similarities and differences. These are demonstrated by employing a simple mechanical model. Several structural configurations are analyzed, for demonstration purposes, with the intention of comparing critical dynamic loads to critical static loads. These configurations include shallow arches and shallow spherical caps, two bar frames, and imperfect cylindrical shells of metallic as well as laminated composite construction. In the demonstration examples, the effect of static pre loading on the dynamic critical load is presented

  15. Population dynamics and rural poverty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fong, M S

    1985-01-01

    An overview of the relationship between demographic factors and rural poverty in developing countries is presented. The author examines both the micro- and macro-level perspectives of this relationship and the determinants and consequences of population growth. The author notes the prospects for a rapid increase in the rural labor force and considers its implications for the agricultural production structure and the need for institutional change. Consideration is also given to the continuing demand for high fertility at the family level and the role of infant and child mortality in the poverty cycle. "The paper concludes by drawing attention to the need for developing the mechanism for reconciliation of social and individual optima with respect to family size and population growth." The need for rural development projects that take demographic factors into account is stressed as is the need for effective population programs. (summary in FRE, ITA) excerpt

  16. POPULATION DYNAMICS OF PSEUDO-NITZSCHIA SPECIES ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    nb

    current study aimed at assessing the population dynamics of Pseudo-nitzschia ... and to the developing aquaculture industry ... B. Hotel. Pangani Island. Bongoyo Island. Mbudya Island. Msasani Bay ... Salinity values did not show clear trends.

  17. Speckle dynamics under ergodicity breaking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sdobnov, Anton; Bykov, Alexander; Molodij, Guillaume; Kalchenko, Vyacheslav; Jarvinen, Topias; Popov, Alexey; Kordas, Krisztian; Meglinski, Igor

    2018-04-01

    Laser speckle contrast imaging (LSCI) is a well-known and versatile approach for the non-invasive visualization of flows and microcirculation localized in turbid scattering media, including biological tissues. In most conventional implementations of LSCI the ergodic regime is typically assumed valid. However, most composite turbid scattering media, especially biological tissues, are non-ergodic, containing a mixture of dynamic and static centers of light scattering. In the current study, we examined the speckle contrast in different dynamic conditions with the aim of assessing limitations in the quantitative interpretation of speckle contrast images. Based on a simple phenomenological approach, we introduced a coefficient of speckle dynamics to quantitatively assess the ratio of the dynamic part of a scattering medium to the static one. The introduced coefficient allows one to distinguish real changes in motion from the mere appearance of static components in the field of view. As examples of systems with static/dynamic transitions, thawing and heating of Intralipid samples were studied by the LSCI approach.

  18. Stochastic population dynamic models as probability networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    M.E. and D.C. Lee. Borsuk

    2009-01-01

    The dynamics of a population and its response to environmental change depend on the balance of birth, death and age-at-maturity, and there have been many attempts to mathematically model populations based on these characteristics. Historically, most of these models were deterministic, meaning that the results were strictly determined by the equations of the model and...

  19. Modeling the population dynamics of Pacific yew.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard T. Busing; Thomas A. Spies

    1995-01-01

    A study of Pacific yew (Taxus brevifolia Nutt.) population dynamics in the mountains of western Oregon and Washington was based on a combination of long-term population data and computer modeling. Rates of growth and mortality were low in mature and old-growth forest stands. Diameter growth at breast height ranged from 0 to 3 centimeters per decade...

  20. Population dynamical responses to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forchhammer, Mads; Schmidt, Niels Martin; Høye, Toke Thomas

    2008-01-01

    approaches, we analyse concurrently the influence of climatic variability and trophic interactions on the temporal population dynamics of species in the terrestrial vertebrate community at Zackenberg. We describe and contrast the population dynamics of three predator species (arctic fox Alopex lagopus, stoat...... of arctic fox were not significantly related to changes in lemming abundance, both the stoat and the breeding of long-tailed skua were mainly related to lemming dynamics. The predator-prey system at Zackenberg differentiates from previously described systems in high-arctic Greenland, which, we suggest...

  1. Population dynamics on heterogeneous bacterial substrates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mobius, Wolfram; Murray, Andrew W.; Nelson, David R.

    2012-02-01

    How species invade new territories and how these range expansions influence the population's genotypes are important questions in the field of population genetics. The majority of work addressing these questions focuses on homogeneous environments. Much less is known about the population dynamics and population genetics when the environmental conditions are heterogeneous in space. To better understand range expansions in two-dimensional heterogeneous environments, we employ a system of bacteria and bacteriophage, the viruses of bacteria. Thereby, the bacteria constitute the environment in which a population of bacteriophages expands. The spread of phage constitutes itself in lysis of bacteria and thus formation of clear regions on bacterial lawns, called plaques. We study the population dynamics and genetics of the expanding page for various patterns of environments.

  2. How Resource Phenology Affects Consumer Population Dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bewick, Sharon; Cantrell, R Stephen; Cosner, Chris; Fagan, William F

    2016-02-01

    Climate change drives uneven phenology shifts across taxa, and this can result in changes to the phenological match between interacting species. Shifts in the relative phenology of partner species are well documented, but few studies have addressed the effects of such changes on population dynamics. To explore this, we develop a phenologically explicit model describing consumer-resource interactions. Focusing on scenarios for univoltine insects, we show how changes in resource phenology can be reinterpreted as transformations in the year-to-year recursion relationships defining consumer population dynamics. This perspective provides a straightforward path for interpreting the long-term population consequences of phenology change. Specifically, by relating the outcome of phenological shifts to species traits governing recursion relationships (e.g., consumer fecundity or competitive scenario), we demonstrate how changes in relative phenology can force systems into different dynamical regimes, with major implications for resource management, conservation, and other areas of applied dynamics.

  3. Population Dynamics and Air Pollution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flachs, Esben Meulengracht; Sørensen, Jan; Bønløkke, Jacob

    2013-01-01

    Objective. To explore how three different assumptions on demographics affect the health impact of Danish emitted air pollution in Denmark from 2005 to 2030, with health impact modeled from 2005 to 2050. Methods. Modeled air pollution from Danish sources was used as exposure in a newly developed......) a static year 2005 population, (2) morbidity and mortality fixed at the year 2005 level, or (3) an expected development. Results. The health impact of air pollution was estimated at 672,000, 290,000, and 280,000 lost life years depending on demographic assumptions and the corresponding social costs at 430.......4 M€, 317.5 M€, and 261.6 M€ through the modeled years 2005–2050. Conclusion. The modeled health impact of air pollution differed widely with the demographic assumptions, and thus demographics and assumptions on demographics played a key role in making health impact assessments on air pollution....

  4. Changing population dynamics and uneven temperature emergence combine to exacerbate regional exposure to heat extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C of warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrington, Luke J.; Otto, Friederike E. L.

    2018-03-01

    Understanding how continuing increases in global mean temperature will exacerbate societal exposure to extreme weather events is a question of profound importance. However, determining population exposure to the impacts of heat extremes at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global mean warming requires not only (1) a robust understanding of the physical climate system response, but also consideration of (2) projected changes to overall population size, as well as (3) changes to where people will live in the future. This analysis introduces a new framework, adapted from studies of probabilistic event attribution, to disentangle the relative importance of regional climate emergence and changing population dynamics in the exposure to future heat extremes across multiple densely populated regions in Southern Asia and Eastern Africa (SAEA). Our results reveal that, when population is kept at 2015 levels, exposure to heat considered severe in the present decade across SAEA will increase by a factor of 4.1 (2.4-9.6) and 15.8 (5.0-135) under a 1.5°- and 2.0°-warmer world, respectively. Furthermore, projected population changes by the end of the century under an SSP1 and SSP2 scenario can further exacerbate these changes by a factor of 1.2 (1.0-1.3) and 1.5 (1.3-1.7), respectively. However, a large fraction of this additional risk increase is not related to absolute increases in population, but instead attributed to changes in which regions exhibit continued population growth into the future. Further, this added impact of population redistribution will be twice as significant after 2.0 °C of warming, relative to stabilisation at 1.5 °C, due to the non-linearity of increases in heat exposure. Irrespective of the population scenario considered, continued African population expansion will place more people in locations where emergent changes to future heat extremes are exceptionally severe.

  5. Structural stability of nonlinear population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cenci, Simone; Saavedra, Serguei

    2018-01-01

    In population dynamics, the concept of structural stability has been used to quantify the tolerance of a system to environmental perturbations. Yet, measuring the structural stability of nonlinear dynamical systems remains a challenging task. Focusing on the classic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, because of the linearity of the functional response, it has been possible to measure the conditions compatible with a structurally stable system. However, the functional response of biological communities is not always well approximated by deterministic linear functions. Thus, it is unclear the extent to which this linear approach can be generalized to other population dynamics models. Here, we show that the same approach used to investigate the classic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, which is called the structural approach, can be applied to a much larger class of nonlinear models. This class covers a large number of nonlinear functional responses that have been intensively investigated both theoretically and experimentally. We also investigate the applicability of the structural approach to stochastic dynamical systems and we provide a measure of structural stability for finite populations. Overall, we show that the structural approach can provide reliable and tractable information about the qualitative behavior of many nonlinear dynamical systems.

  6. Structural stability of nonlinear population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cenci, Simone; Saavedra, Serguei

    2018-01-01

    In population dynamics, the concept of structural stability has been used to quantify the tolerance of a system to environmental perturbations. Yet, measuring the structural stability of nonlinear dynamical systems remains a challenging task. Focusing on the classic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, because of the linearity of the functional response, it has been possible to measure the conditions compatible with a structurally stable system. However, the functional response of biological communities is not always well approximated by deterministic linear functions. Thus, it is unclear the extent to which this linear approach can be generalized to other population dynamics models. Here, we show that the same approach used to investigate the classic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, which is called the structural approach, can be applied to a much larger class of nonlinear models. This class covers a large number of nonlinear functional responses that have been intensively investigated both theoretically and experimentally. We also investigate the applicability of the structural approach to stochastic dynamical systems and we provide a measure of structural stability for finite populations. Overall, we show that the structural approach can provide reliable and tractable information about the qualitative behavior of many nonlinear dynamical systems.

  7. 14C-glyphosate mineralization and follow up of the dynamics of Pseudomonas sp. populations in three soils under different uses in Tolima (Colombia)

    OpenAIRE

    Liliana Figueroa del Castillo; Myriam Rocío Melgarejo P; Cilia L. Fuentes de Piedrahíta; Amanda Lozano de Yunda

    2010-01-01

    The capacity of Pseudomonas sp. to degrade different pesticides has been the object of numerous studies; due to this, its dynamics was evaluated and the effect of the application of glyphosate (Roundup®) in soils of Tolima, taxonomically classified as Entic haplustolls, Typic ustipsamments, and Inceptic haplustalfs with coverage of secondary forest, stubble and sorghum crop, respectively, through the in vitro 14C-glyphosate mineralization. These soils were subjected to presence/absence of hea...

  8. Particle algorithms for population dynamics in flows

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perlekar, Prasad; Toschi, Federico; Benzi, Roberto; Pigolotti, Simone

    2011-01-01

    We present and discuss particle based algorithms to numerically study the dynamics of population subjected to an advecting flow condition. We discuss few possible variants of the algorithms and compare them in a model compressible flow. A comparison against appropriate versions of the continuum stochastic Fisher equation (sFKPP) is also presented and discussed. The algorithms can be used to study populations genetics in fluid environments.

  9. Estimation of population mean under systematic sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noor-ul-amin, Muhammad; Javaid, Amjad

    2017-11-01

    In this study we propose a generalized ratio estimator under non-response for systematic random sampling. We also generate a class of estimators through special cases of generalized estimator using different combinations of coefficients of correlation, kurtosis and variation. The mean square errors and mathematical conditions are also derived to prove the efficiency of proposed estimators. Numerical illustration is included using three populations to support the results.

  10. Dynamics of genome rearrangement in bacterial populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aaron E Darling

    2008-07-01

    represent the first characterization of genome arrangement evolution in a bacterial population evolving outside laboratory conditions. Insight into the process of genomic rearrangement may further the understanding of pathogen population dynamics and selection on the architecture of circular bacterial chromosomes.

  11. Population dynamics of Pseudo-nitzschia species ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The genus Pseudo-nitzschia is a chain-forming diatom comprising about 30 species some of which are known to produce domoic acid (DA) that causes amnesic shellfish poisoning (ASP). The current study aimed at assessing the population dynamics of Pseudo-nitzschia in the near shore waters of Dar es Salaam. Samples ...

  12. Optimisation of single-phase dry-thermophilic anaerobic digestion under high organic loading rates of industrial municipal solid waste: population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zahedi, S; Sales, D; Romero, L I; Solera, R

    2013-10-01

    Different high feed organic loading rates (OLRs) (from 5.7 g to 46.0 g TVS/l/d) or hydraulic retention times (HRTs) (from 15 d to 2 d) in single-phase dry-thermophilic anaerobic digestion (AD) of organic fraction municipal solid waste (OFMSW) were investigated. The specific gas production (SGP) values (0.25-0.53 m(3)/kg TVS) and the percentages of Eubacteria, Archaea, H2-utilising methanogens (HUMs) and acetate-utilising methanogens (AUMs) were stable within the ranges 80.2-91.1%, 12.4-18.5%, 4.4-9.8% and 5.5-10.9%, respectively. A HUM/AUM ratio greater than 0.7 seems to be necessary to maintain very low partial pressures of H2 required for dry AD process. Increasing OLR resulted in an increase in all the populations, except for propionate-utilising acetogens (PUAs). Optimal conditions were obtained at 3d HRT (OLR=30.7 g TVS/l/d), which is lower than the doubling time of acetogens and methanogens. The methane production (MP) was clearly higher than those reported in AD of OFMSW. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Strongly Deterministic Population Dynamics in Closed Microbial Communities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zak Frentz

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Biological systems are influenced by random processes at all scales, including molecular, demographic, and behavioral fluctuations, as well as by their interactions with a fluctuating environment. We previously established microbial closed ecosystems (CES as model systems for studying the role of random events and the emergent statistical laws governing population dynamics. Here, we present long-term measurements of population dynamics using replicate digital holographic microscopes that maintain CES under precisely controlled external conditions while automatically measuring abundances of three microbial species via single-cell imaging. With this system, we measure spatiotemporal population dynamics in more than 60 replicate CES over periods of months. In contrast to previous studies, we observe strongly deterministic population dynamics in replicate systems. Furthermore, we show that previously discovered statistical structure in abundance fluctuations across replicate CES is driven by variation in external conditions, such as illumination. In particular, we confirm the existence of stable ecomodes governing the correlations in population abundances of three species. The observation of strongly deterministic dynamics, together with stable structure of correlations in response to external perturbations, points towards a possibility of simple macroscopic laws governing microbial systems despite numerous stochastic events present on microscopic levels.

  14. Rethinking the logistic approach for population dynamics of mutualistic interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Algarra, Javier; Galeano, Javier; Pastor, Juan Manuel; Iriondo, José María; Ramasco, José J

    2014-12-21

    Mutualistic communities have an internal structure that makes them resilient to external perturbations. Late research has focused on their stability and the topology of the relations between the different organisms to explain the reasons of the system robustness. Much less attention has been invested in analyzing the systems dynamics. The main population models in use are modifications of the r-K formulation of logistic equation with additional terms to account for the benefits produced by the interspecific interactions. These models have shortcomings as the so-called r-K formulation diverges under some conditions. In this work, we introduce a model for population dynamics under mutualism that preserves the original logistic formulation. It is mathematically simpler than the widely used type II models, although it shows similar complexity in terms of fixed points and stability of the dynamics. We perform an analytical stability analysis and numerical simulations to study the model behavior in general interaction scenarios including tests of the resilience of its dynamics under external perturbations. Despite its simplicity, our results indicate that the model dynamics shows an important richness that can be used to gain further insights in the dynamics of mutualistic communities. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. The failure rate dynamics in heterogeneous populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cha, Ji Hwan; Finkelstein, Maxim

    2013-01-01

    Most populations encountered in real world are heterogeneous. In reliability applications, the mixture (observed) failure rate, obviously, can be considered as a measure of ‘average’ quality in these populations. However, in addition to this average measure, some variability characteristics for failure rates can be very helpful in describing the time-dependent changes in quality of heterogeneous populations. In this paper, we discuss variance and the coefficient of variation of the corresponding random failure rate as variability measures for items in heterogeneous populations. Furthermore, there is often a risk that items of poor quality are selected for important missions. Therefore, along with the ‘average quality’ of a population, more ‘conservative’ quality measures should be also defined and studied. For this purpose, we propose the percentile and the tail-mixture of the failure rates as the corresponding conservative measures. Some illustrative examples are given. -- Highlights: ► This paper provides the insight on the variability measures in heterogeneous populations. ► The conservative quality measures in heterogeneous populations are defined. ► The utility of these measures is illustrated by meaningful examples. ► This paper provides a better understanding of the dynamics in heterogeneous populations

  16. Aspiration dynamics of multi-player games in finite populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Jinming; Wu, Bin; Altrock, Philipp M; Wang, Long

    2014-05-06

    On studying strategy update rules in the framework of evolutionary game theory, one can differentiate between imitation processes and aspiration-driven dynamics. In the former case, individuals imitate the strategy of a more successful peer. In the latter case, individuals adjust their strategies based on a comparison of their pay-offs from the evolutionary game to a value they aspire, called the level of aspiration. Unlike imitation processes of pairwise comparison, aspiration-driven updates do not require additional information about the strategic environment and can thus be interpreted as being more spontaneous. Recent work has mainly focused on understanding how aspiration dynamics alter the evolutionary outcome in structured populations. However, the baseline case for understanding strategy selection is the well-mixed population case, which is still lacking sufficient understanding. We explore how aspiration-driven strategy-update dynamics under imperfect rationality influence the average abundance of a strategy in multi-player evolutionary games with two strategies. We analytically derive a condition under which a strategy is more abundant than the other in the weak selection limiting case. This approach has a long-standing history in evolutionary games and is mostly applied for its mathematical approachability. Hence, we also explore strong selection numerically, which shows that our weak selection condition is a robust predictor of the average abundance of a strategy. The condition turns out to differ from that of a wide class of imitation dynamics, as long as the game is not dyadic. Therefore, a strategy favoured under imitation dynamics can be disfavoured under aspiration dynamics. This does not require any population structure, and thus highlights the intrinsic difference between imitation and aspiration dynamics.

  17. A general modeling framework for describing spatially structured population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sample, Christine; Fryxell, John; Bieri, Joanna; Federico, Paula; Earl, Julia; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Mattsson, Brady; Flockhart, Tyler; Nicol, Sam; Diffendorfer, James E.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Erickson, Richard A.; Norris, D. Ryan

    2017-01-01

    Variation in movement across time and space fundamentally shapes the abundance and distribution of populations. Although a variety of approaches model structured population dynamics, they are limited to specific types of spatially structured populations and lack a unifying framework. Here, we propose a unified network-based framework sufficiently novel in its flexibility to capture a wide variety of spatiotemporal processes including metapopulations and a range of migratory patterns. It can accommodate different kinds of age structures, forms of population growth, dispersal, nomadism and migration, and alternative life-history strategies. Our objective was to link three general elements common to all spatially structured populations (space, time and movement) under a single mathematical framework. To do this, we adopt a network modeling approach. The spatial structure of a population is represented by a weighted and directed network. Each node and each edge has a set of attributes which vary through time. The dynamics of our network-based population is modeled with discrete time steps. Using both theoretical and real-world examples, we show how common elements recur across species with disparate movement strategies and how they can be combined under a unified mathematical framework. We illustrate how metapopulations, various migratory patterns, and nomadism can be represented with this modeling approach. We also apply our network-based framework to four organisms spanning a wide range of life histories, movement patterns, and carrying capacities. General computer code to implement our framework is provided, which can be applied to almost any spatially structured population. This framework contributes to our theoretical understanding of population dynamics and has practical management applications, including understanding the impact of perturbations on population size, distribution, and movement patterns. By working within a common framework, there is less chance

  18. Calculating evolutionary dynamics in structured populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles G Nathanson

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Evolution is shaping the world around us. At the core of every evolutionary process is a population of reproducing individuals. The outcome of an evolutionary process depends on population structure. Here we provide a general formula for calculating evolutionary dynamics in a wide class of structured populations. This class includes the recently introduced "games in phenotype space" and "evolutionary set theory." There can be local interactions for determining the relative fitness of individuals, but we require global updating, which means all individuals compete uniformly for reproduction. We study the competition of two strategies in the context of an evolutionary game and determine which strategy is favored in the limit of weak selection. We derive an intuitive formula for the structure coefficient, sigma, and provide a method for efficient numerical calculation.

  19. Food-web dynamics under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, L.; Takahashi, M.; Hartvig, Martin

    2017-01-01

    Climate change affects ecological communities through its impact on the physiological performance of individuals. However, the population dynamic of species well inside their thermal niche is also determined by competitors, prey and predators, in addition to being influenced by temperature changes....... We use a trait-based food-web model to examine how the interplay between the direct physiological effects from temperature and the indirect effects due to changing interactions between populations shapes the ecological consequences of climate change for populations and for entire communities. Our...... climatically well-adapted species may be brought to extinction by the changed food-web topology. Our results highlight that the impact of climate change on specific populations is largely unpredictable, and apparently well-adapted species may be severely impacted...

  20. Critical dynamics in population vaccinating behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pananos, A Demetri; Bury, Thomas M; Wang, Clara; Schonfeld, Justin; Mohanty, Sharada P; Nyhan, Brendan; Salathé, Marcel; Bauch, Chris T

    2017-12-26

    Vaccine refusal can lead to renewed outbreaks of previously eliminated diseases and even delay global eradication. Vaccinating decisions exemplify a complex, coupled system where vaccinating behavior and disease dynamics influence one another. Such systems often exhibit critical phenomena-special dynamics close to a tipping point leading to a new dynamical regime. For instance, critical slowing down (declining rate of recovery from small perturbations) may emerge as a tipping point is approached. Here, we collected and geocoded tweets about measles-mumps-rubella vaccine and classified their sentiment using machine-learning algorithms. We also extracted data on measles-related Google searches. We find critical slowing down in the data at the level of California and the United States in the years before and after the 2014-2015 Disneyland, California measles outbreak. Critical slowing down starts growing appreciably several years before the Disneyland outbreak as vaccine uptake declines and the population approaches the tipping point. However, due to the adaptive nature of coupled behavior-disease systems, the population responds to the outbreak by moving away from the tipping point, causing "critical speeding up" whereby resilience to perturbations increases. A mathematical model of measles transmission and vaccine sentiment predicts the same qualitative patterns in the neighborhood of a tipping point to greatly reduced vaccine uptake and large epidemics. These results support the hypothesis that population vaccinating behavior near the disease elimination threshold is a critical phenomenon. Developing new analytical tools to detect these patterns in digital social data might help us identify populations at heightened risk of widespread vaccine refusal. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

  1. Optimal Portfolios Under Dynamic Shortfall Constraints | Akume ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    industry standard with regulatory authorities enforcing its use in risk measurement and management. Despite its widespread acceptance, VaR is not coherent. Tail Conditional Expectation (TCE), on the other hand, for an underlying continuous distribution, is a coherent risk measures. Our focus in this paper is the dynamic ...

  2. Optimal Portfolios Under Dynamic Shortfall Constraints

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    industry standard with regulatory authorities enforcing its use in risk measure- ment and management. Despite its widespread acceptance, VaR is not coherent. Tail Conditional Expectation (TCE), on the other hand, for an underlying con- tinuous distribution, is a coherent risk measures. Our focus in this paper is the dynamic ...

  3. Bridging the Timescales of Single-Cell and Population Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jafarpour, Farshid; Wright, Charles S.; Gudjonson, Herman; Riebling, Jedidiah; Dawson, Emma; Lo, Klevin; Fiebig, Aretha; Crosson, Sean; Dinner, Aaron R.; Iyer-Biswas, Srividya

    2018-04-01

    How are granular details of stochastic growth and division of individual cells reflected in smooth deterministic growth of population numbers? We provide an integrated, multiscale perspective of microbial growth dynamics by formulating a data-validated theoretical framework that accounts for observables at both single-cell and population scales. We derive exact analytical complete time-dependent solutions to cell-age distributions and population growth rates as functionals of the underlying interdivision time distributions, for symmetric and asymmetric cell division. These results provide insights into the surprising implications of stochastic single-cell dynamics for population growth. Using our results for asymmetric division, we deduce the time to transition from the reproductively quiescent (swarmer) to the replication-competent (stalked) stage of the Caulobacter crescentus life cycle. Remarkably, population numbers can spontaneously oscillate with time. We elucidate the physics leading to these population oscillations. For C. crescentus cells, we show that a simple measurement of the population growth rate, for a given growth condition, is sufficient to characterize the condition-specific cellular unit of time and, thus, yields the mean (single-cell) growth and division timescales, fluctuations in cell division times, the cell-age distribution, and the quiescence timescale.

  4. Noise-induced effects in population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spagnolo, Bernardo; Cirone, Markus; La Barbera, Antonino; de Pasquale, Ferdinando

    2002-03-01

    We investigate the role of noise in the nonlinear relaxation of two ecosystems described by generalized Lotka-Volterra equations in the presence of multiplicative noise. Specifically we study two cases: (i) an ecosystem with two interacting species in the presence of periodic driving; (ii) an ecosystem with a great number of interacting species with random interaction matrix. We analyse the interplay between noise and periodic modulation for case (i) and the role of the noise in the transient dynamics of the ecosystem in the presence of an absorbing barrier in case (ii). We find that the presence of noise is responsible for the generation of temporal oscillations and for the appearance of spatial patterns in the first case. In the other case we obtain the asymptotic behaviour of the time average of the ith population and discuss the effect of the noise on the probability distributions of the population and of the local field.

  5. Central-marginal population dynamics in species invasions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qinfeng eGuo

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The species’ range limits and associated central-marginal (C-M; i.e., from species range center to margin population dynamics continue to draw increasing attention because of their importance for current emerging issues such as biotic invasions and epidemic diseases under global change. Previous studies have mainly focused on species borders and C-M process in natural settings for native species. More recently, growing efforts are devoted to examine the C-M patterns and process for invasive species partly due to their relatively short history, highly dynamic populations, and management implications. Here I examine recent findings and information gaps related to (1 the C-M population dynamics linked to species invasions, and (2 the possible effects of climate change and land use on the C-M patterns and processes. Unlike most native species that are relatively stable (some even having contracting populations or ranges, many invasive species are still spreading fast and form new distribution or abundance centers. Because of the strong nonlinearity of population demographic or vital rates (i.e. birth, death, immigration and emigration across the C-M gradients and the increased complexity of species ranges due to habitat fragmentation, multiple introductions, range-wide C-M comparisons and simulation involving multiple vital rates are needed in the future.

  6. Effects of constant immigration on the dynamics and persistence of stable and unstable Drosophila populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dey, Snigdhadip; Joshi, Amitabh

    2013-01-01

    Constant immigration can stabilize population size fluctuations but its effects on extinction remain unexplored. We show that constant immigration significantly reduced extinction in fruitfly populations with relatively stable or unstable dynamics. In unstable populations with oscillations of amplitude around 1.5 times the mean population size, persistence and constancy were unrelated. Low immigration enhanced persistence without affecting constancy whereas high immigration increased constancy without enhancing persistence. In relatively stable populations with erratic fluctuations of amplitude close to the mean population size, both low and high immigration enhanced persistence. In these populations, the amplitude of fluctuations relative to mean population size went down due to immigration, and their dynamics were altered to low-period cycles. The effects of immigration on the population size distribution and intrinsic dynamics of stable versus unstable populations differed considerably, suggesting that the mechanisms by which immigration reduced extinction risk depended on underlying dynamics in complex ways. PMID:23470546

  7. An age structured model for obesity prevalence dynamics in populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gilberto González Parra

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Objective. Modeling the correlation of the development of obesity in a population with age and time and predict the dynamics of the correlation of the development of obesity in a population with age and time under different scenarios in Valencia (Spain. Materials and methods. An age structured mathematical model is used to describe the future dynamics of obesity prevalence for different ages in human population with excess weight. Simulation of the model with parameters estimated using the Health Survey of the Region of Valencia 2000 (4.319 interviews and Health Survey of the Region of Valencia 2005 (4.012 interviews. The model considers only overweight and obese populations since these subpopulations are the most relevant on obesity health concern. Results. The model allows predicting and studying the prevalence of obesity for each age. Results showed an increasing trend of obesity in the following years in well accordance with the trend observed in several countries. Conclusions. Based on the numerical simulations it is possible to conclude that the age structured mathematical model is suitable to forecast the obesity epidemic in each age group in different countries. Additionally, this type of models may be applied to study other characteristics of other populations such animal populations.

  8. [Issue of population quality under economic reform].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, G

    1991-02-01

    Under the current economic reform program, various problems about the quality of the population have emerged; dropping out of school is one such problem. In recent years, dropping out of school, has become a prevalent phenomenon. It was estimated that between 1980 and 1987, 40 million primary and middle school students dropped out of school. Drop-outs occurred mostly in primary and middle schools and in rural areas. The reasons for dropping out can be summarized as follows: 1) families could not afford to pay for tuition, 2) students were not able to keep up with school work, and 3) families or students were influenced by other students who had dropped out. In weighing the cost and benefit of attending school, parents would decide whether or not and for how many years to send their children to school. The costs included both direct costs and opportunity costs. Children in urban areas have practically no opportunity costs, while those in rural areas do. Dropping out has been more prevalent among girls than boys. Since girls marry into other families, parents were less willing to invest in their education. On the other hand, the school curriculum gave more emphasis to preparing students for advanced studies than to relaying practical knowledge. Parents did not feel there was any advantage for their children to spend more time in school. Rural economic reform had strengthened the decision-making function of the family in the area of investment. It has also widened the gap between the rich and the poor. For less affluent families, it has become more and more difficult to bear the increasing cost of education. To deal with this problem, the author made several suggestions: 1) persuade parents to continue sending children to school 2) set regulations forbidding the employment of school age children 3) forbid schools to collect unauthorized feeds and establish scholarships to help economically disadvantaged students, 4) develop more vocational schools and change the

  9. Spent fuel's behavior under dynamic drip tests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Finn, P.A.; Buck, E.C.; Hoh, J.C.; Bates, J.K.

    1995-01-01

    In the potential repository at Yucca Mountain, failure of the waste package container and the cladding of the spent nuclear fuel would expose the fuel to water under oxidizing conditions. To simulate the release behavior of radionuclides from spent fuel, dynamic drip and vapor tests with spent nuclear fuel have been ongoing for 2.5 years. Rapid alteration of the spent fuel has been noted with concurrent release of radionuclides. Colloidal species containing americium and plutonium have been found in the leachate. This observation suggests that colloidal transport of radionuclides should be included in the performance assessment of a potential repository

  10. Complex networks under dynamic repair model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaoqi, Fu; Ying, Wang; Kun, Zhao; Yangjun, Gao

    2018-01-01

    Invulnerability is not the only factor of importance when considering complex networks' security. It is also critical to have an effective and reasonable repair strategy. Existing research on network repair is confined to the static model. The dynamic model makes better use of the redundant capacity of repaired nodes and repairs the damaged network more efficiently than the static model; however, the dynamic repair model is complex and polytropic. In this paper, we construct a dynamic repair model and systematically describe the energy-transfer relationships between nodes in the repair process of the failure network. Nodes are divided into three types, corresponding to three structures. We find that the strong coupling structure is responsible for secondary failure of the repaired nodes and propose an algorithm that can select the most suitable targets (nodes or links) to repair the failure network with minimal cost. Two types of repair strategies are identified, with different effects under the two energy-transfer rules. The research results enable a more flexible approach to network repair.

  11. Fundamental Dynamical Modes Underlying Human Brain Synchronization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catalina Alvarado-Rojas

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Little is known about the long-term dynamics of widely interacting cortical and subcortical networks during the wake-sleep cycle. Using large-scale intracranial recordings of epileptic patients during seizure-free periods, we investigated local- and long-range synchronization between multiple brain regions over several days. For such high-dimensional data, summary information is required for understanding and modelling the underlying dynamics. Here, we suggest that a compact yet useful representation is given by a state space based on the first principal components. Using this representation, we report, with a remarkable similarity across the patients with different locations of electrode placement, that the seemingly complex patterns of brain synchrony during the wake-sleep cycle can be represented by a small number of characteristic dynamic modes. In this space, transitions between behavioral states occur through specific trajectories from one mode to another. These findings suggest that, at a coarse level of temporal resolution, the different brain states are correlated with several dominant synchrony patterns which are successively activated across wake-sleep states.

  12. Gas Bubble Dynamics under Mechanical Vibrations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohagheghian, Shahrouz; Elbing, Brian

    2017-11-01

    The scientific community has a limited understanding of the bubble dynamics under mechanical oscillations due to over simplification of Navier-Stockes equation by neglecting the shear stress tensor and not accounting for body forces when calculating the acoustic radiation force. The current work experimental investigates bubble dynamics under mechanical vibration and resulting acoustic field by measuring the bubble size and velocity using high-speed imaging. The experimental setup consists of a custom-designed shaker table, cast acrylic bubble column, compressed air injection manifold and an optical imaging system. The mechanical vibrations resulted in accelerations between 0.25 to 10 times gravitational acceleration corresponding to frequency and amplitude range of 8 - 22Hz and 1 - 10mm respectively. Throughout testing the void fraction was limited to <5%. The bubble size is larger than resonance size and smaller than acoustic wavelength. The amplitude of acoustic pressure wave was estimated using the definition of Bjerknes force in combination with Rayleigh-Plesset equation. Physical behavior of the system was capture and classified. Bubble size, velocity as well as size and spatial distribution will be presented.

  13. Perturbation analysis of transient population dynamics using matrix projection models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stott, Iain

    2016-01-01

    Non-stable populations exhibit short-term transient dynamics: size, growth and structure that are unlike predicted long-term asymptotic stable, stationary or equilibrium dynamics. Understanding transient dynamics of non-stable populations is important for designing effective population management...... these methods to know exactly what is being measured. Despite a wealth of existing methods, I identify some areas that would benefit from further development....

  14. Periodic matrix models for seasonal dynamics of structured populations with application to a seabird population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cushing, J M; Henson, Shandelle M

    2018-02-03

    For structured populations with an annual breeding season, life-stage interactions and behavioral tactics may occur on a faster time scale than that of population dynamics. Motivated by recent field studies of the effect of rising sea surface temperature (SST) on within-breeding-season behaviors in colonial seabirds, we formulate and analyze a general class of discrete-time matrix models designed to account for changes in behavioral tactics within the breeding season and their dynamic consequences at the population level across breeding seasons. As a specific example, we focus on egg cannibalism and the daily reproductive synchrony observed in seabirds. Using the model, we investigate circumstances under which these life history tactics can be beneficial or non-beneficial at the population level in light of the expected continued rise in SST. Using bifurcation theoretic techniques, we study the nature of non-extinction, seasonal cycles as a function of environmental resource availability as they are created upon destabilization of the extinction state. Of particular interest are backward bifurcations in that they typically create strong Allee effects in population models which, in turn, lead to the benefit of possible (initial condition dependent) survival in adverse environments. We find that positive density effects (component Allee effects) due to increased adult survival from cannibalism and the propensity of females to synchronize daily egg laying can produce a strong Allee effect due to a backward bifurcation.

  15. Passivity analysis of higher order evolutionary dynamics and population games

    KAUST Repository

    Mabrok, Mohamed; Shamma, Jeff S.

    2017-01-01

    Evolutionary dynamics describe how the population composition changes in response to the fitness levels, resulting in a closed-loop feedback system. Recent work established a connection between passivity theory and certain classes of population

  16. DYNAMICS OF Cercospora zeina POPULATIONS IN MAIZE-BASED ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ACSS

    DYNAMICS OFCercospora zeina POPULATIONS IN MAIZE-BASED AGRO- ..... Population differentiation of Cercospora zeina in three districts of Uganda based on analysis of molecular variance ..... interactions: The example of the Erysiphe.

  17. Reliability of dynamic systems under limited information.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Field, Richard V., Jr. (.,; .); Grigoriu, Mircea

    2006-09-01

    A method is developed for reliability analysis of dynamic systems under limited information. The available information includes one or more samples of the system output; any known information on features of the output can be used if available. The method is based on the theory of non-Gaussian translation processes and is shown to be particularly suitable for problems of practical interest. For illustration, we apply the proposed method to a series of simple example problems and compare with results given by traditional statistical estimators in order to establish the accuracy of the method. It is demonstrated that the method delivers accurate results for the case of linear and nonlinear dynamic systems, and can be applied to analyze experimental data and/or mathematical model outputs. Two complex applications of direct interest to Sandia are also considered. First, we apply the proposed method to assess design reliability of a MEMS inertial switch. Second, we consider re-entry body (RB) component vibration response during normal re-entry, where the objective is to estimate the time-dependent probability of component failure. This last application is directly relevant to re-entry random vibration analysis at Sandia, and may provide insights on test-based and/or model-based qualification of weapon components for random vibration environments.

  18. Neural Population Dynamics during Reaching Are Better Explained by a Dynamical System than Representational Tuning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michaels, Jonathan A; Dann, Benjamin; Scherberger, Hansjörg

    2016-11-01

    Recent models of movement generation in motor cortex have sought to explain neural activity not as a function of movement parameters, known as representational models, but as a dynamical system acting at the level of the population. Despite evidence supporting this framework, the evaluation of representational models and their integration with dynamical systems is incomplete in the literature. Using a representational velocity-tuning based simulation of center-out reaching, we show that incorporating variable latency offsets between neural activity and kinematics is sufficient to generate rotational dynamics at the level of neural populations, a phenomenon observed in motor cortex. However, we developed a covariance-matched permutation test (CMPT) that reassigns neural data between task conditions independently for each neuron while maintaining overall neuron-to-neuron relationships, revealing that rotations based on the representational model did not uniquely depend on the underlying condition structure. In contrast, rotations based on either a dynamical model or motor cortex data depend on this relationship, providing evidence that the dynamical model more readily explains motor cortex activity. Importantly, implementing a recurrent neural network we demonstrate that both representational tuning properties and rotational dynamics emerge, providing evidence that a dynamical system can reproduce previous findings of representational tuning. Finally, using motor cortex data in combination with the CMPT, we show that results based on small numbers of neurons or conditions should be interpreted cautiously, potentially informing future experimental design. Together, our findings reinforce the view that representational models lack the explanatory power to describe complex aspects of single neuron and population level activity.

  19. Stochastic Dynamics Underlying Cognitive Stability and Flexibility.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kai Ueltzhöffer

    2015-06-01

    updating and dopaminergic modulation of cognitive flexibility. These results show that stochastic dynamical systems can implement the basic computations underlying cognitive stability and flexibility and explain neurobiological bases of individual differences.

  20. The stochastic network dynamics underlying perceptual discrimination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Genis Prat-Ortega

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The brain is able to interpret streams of high-dimensional ambiguous information and yield coherent percepts. The mechanisms governing sensory integration have been extensively characterized using time-varying visual stimuli (Britten et al. 1996; Roitman and Shadlen 2002, but some of the basic principles regarding the network dynamics underlying this process remain largely unknown. We captured the basic features of a neural integrator using three canonical one-dimensional models: (1 the Drift Diffusion Model (DDM, (2 the Perfect Integrator (PI which is a particular case of the DDM where the bounds are set to infinity and (3 the double-well potential (DW which captures the dynamics of the attractor networks (Wang 2002; Roxin and Ledberg 2008. Although these models has been widely studied (Bogacz et al. 2006; Roxin and Ledberg 2008; Gold and Shadlen 2002, it has been difficult to experimentally discriminate among them because most of the observables measured are only quantitatively different among these models (e.g. psychometric curves. Here we aim to find experimentally measurable quantities that can yield qualitatively different behaviors depending on the nature of the underlying network dynamics. We examined the categorization dynamics of these models in response to fluctuating stimuli of different duration (T. On each time step, stimuli are drawn from a Gaussian distribution N(μ, σ and the two stimulus categories are defined by μ > 0 and μ < 0. Psychometric curves can therefore be obtained by quantifying the probability of the integrator to yield one category versus μ . We find however that varying σ can reveal more clearly the differences among the different integrators. In the small σ regime, both the DW and the DDM perform transient integration and exhibit a decaying stimulus reverse correlation kernel revealing a primacy effect (Nienborg and Cumming 2009; Wimmer et al. 2015 . In the large σ regime, the integration in the DDM

  1. Effects of an invasive plant on population dynamics in toads.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenberg, Daniel A; Green, David M

    2013-10-01

    When populations decline in response to unfavorable environmental change, the dynamics of their population growth shift. In populations that normally exhibit high levels of variation in recruitment and abundance, as do many amphibians, declines may be difficult to identify from natural fluctuations in abundance. However, the onset of declines may be evident from changes in population growth rate in sufficiently long time series of population data. With data from 23 years of study of a population of Fowler's toad (Anaxyrus [ = Bufo] fowleri) at Long Point, Ontario (1989-2011), we sought to identify such a shift in dynamics. We tested for trends in abundance to detect a change point in population dynamics and then tested among competing population models to identify associated intrinsic and extrinsic factors. The most informative models of population growth included terms for toad abundance and the extent of an invasive marsh plant, the common reed (Phragmites australis), throughout the toads' marshland breeding areas. Our results showed density-dependent growth in the toad population from 1989 through 2002. After 2002, however, we found progressive population decline in the toads associated with the spread of common reeds and consequent loss of toad breeding habitat. This resulted in reduced recruitment and population growth despite the lack of significant loss of adult habitat. Our results underscore the value of using long-term time series to identify shifts in population dynamics coincident with the advent of population decline. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

  2. Endogenous technological and population change under increasing water scarcity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pande, S.; Ertsen, M.; Sivapalan, M.

    2013-11-01

    The ancient civilization in the Indus Valley civilization dispersed under extreme dry conditions; there are indications that the same holds for many other ancient societies. Even contemporary societies, such as the one in Murrumbidgee river basin in Australia, have started to witness a decline in overall population under increasing water scarcity. Hydroclimatic change may not be the sole predictor of the fate of contemporary societies in water scarce regions and many critics of such (perceived) hydroclimatic determinism have suggested that technological change may ameliorate the effects of increasing water scarcity and as such counter the effects of hydroclimatic changes. To study the role of technological change on the dynamics of coupled human-water systems, we develop a simple overlapping-generations model of endogenous technological and demographic change. We model technological change as an endogenous process that depends on factors such as the investments that are (endogenously) made in a society, the (endogenous) diversification of a society into skilled and unskilled workers, a society's patience in terms of its present consumption vs. future consumption, production technology and the (endogenous) interaction of all of these factors. In the model the population growth rate is programmed to decline once consumption per capita crosses a "survival" threshold. This means we do not treat technology as an exogenous random sequence of events, but instead assume that it results (endogenously) from societal actions. The model demonstrates that technological change may indeed ameliorate the effects of increasing water scarcity but typically it does so only to a certain extent. It is possible that technological change may allow a society to escape the effect of increasing water scarcity, leading to a (super)-exponential rise in technology and population. However, such cases require the rate of success of investment in technological advancement to be high. In other

  3. Evolutionary dynamics with fluctuating population sizes and strong mutualism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David R.

    2015-08-01

    Game theory ideas provide a useful framework for studying evolutionary dynamics in a well-mixed environment. This approach, however, typically enforces a strictly fixed overall population size, deemphasizing natural growth processes. We study a competitive Lotka-Volterra model, with number fluctuations, that accounts for natural population growth and encompasses interaction scenarios typical of evolutionary games. We show that, in an appropriate limit, the model describes standard evolutionary games with both genetic drift and overall population size fluctuations. However, there are also regimes where a varying population size can strongly influence the evolutionary dynamics. We focus on the strong mutualism scenario and demonstrate that standard evolutionary game theory fails to describe our simulation results. We then analytically and numerically determine fixation probabilities as well as mean fixation times using matched asymptotic expansions, taking into account the population size degree of freedom. These results elucidate the interplay between population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics in well-mixed systems.

  4. Evolutionary dynamics with fluctuating population sizes and strong mutualism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David R

    2015-08-01

    Game theory ideas provide a useful framework for studying evolutionary dynamics in a well-mixed environment. This approach, however, typically enforces a strictly fixed overall population size, deemphasizing natural growth processes. We study a competitive Lotka-Volterra model, with number fluctuations, that accounts for natural population growth and encompasses interaction scenarios typical of evolutionary games. We show that, in an appropriate limit, the model describes standard evolutionary games with both genetic drift and overall population size fluctuations. However, there are also regimes where a varying population size can strongly influence the evolutionary dynamics. We focus on the strong mutualism scenario and demonstrate that standard evolutionary game theory fails to describe our simulation results. We then analytically and numerically determine fixation probabilities as well as mean fixation times using matched asymptotic expansions, taking into account the population size degree of freedom. These results elucidate the interplay between population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics in well-mixed systems.

  5. Modeling population dynamics of mitochondria in mammalian cells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kornick, Kellianne; Das, Moumita

    Mitochondria are organelles located inside eukaryotic cells and are essential for several key cellular processes such as energy (ATP) production, cell signaling, differentiation, and apoptosis. All organisms are believed to have low levels of variation in mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA), and alterations in mtDNA are connected to a range of human health conditions, including epilepsy, heart failure, Parkinsons disease, diabetes, and multiple sclerosis. Therefore, understanding how changes in mtDNA accumulate over time and are correlated to changes in mitochondrial function and cell properties can have a profound impact on our understanding of cell physiology and the origins of some diseases. Motivated by this, we develop and study a mathematical model to determine which cellular parameters have the largest impact on mtDNA population dynamics. The model consists of coupled ODEs to describe subpopulations of healthy and dysfunctional mitochondria subject to mitochondrial fission, fusion, autophagy, and mutation. We study the time evolution and stability of each sub-population under specific selection biases and pressures by tuning specific terms in our model. Our results may provide insights into how sub-populations of mitochondria survive and evolve under different selection pressures. This work was supported by a Grant from the Moore Foundation.

  6. Population dynamics model for plasmid bearing and plasmid lacking ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Streptokinase production in bioreactor is well associated to cell population dynamics. It is an established fact that two types of cell populations are found to emerge from the initial pool of recombinant cell population. This phenomenon leads to an undesired loss in yield of the product. Primary metabolites, like acetic acid etc ...

  7. The population dynamical implications of male-biased parasitism in different mating systems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin R Miller

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Although there is growing evidence that males tend to suffer higher levels of parasitism than females, the implications of this for the population dynamics of the host population are not yet understood. Here we build on an established 'two-sex' model and investigate how increased susceptibility to infection in males affects the dynamics, under different mating systems. We investigate the effect of pathogenic disease at different case mortalities, under both monogamous and polygynous mating systems. If the case mortality is low, then male-biased parasitism appears similar to unbiased parasitism in terms of its effect on the population dynamics. At higher case mortalities, we identified significant differences between male-biased and unbiased parasitism. A host population may therefore be differentially affected by male-biased and unbiased parasitism. The dynamical outcome is likely to depend on a complex interaction between the host's mating system and demography, and the parasite virulence.

  8. Modelling population dynamics model formulation, fitting and assessment using state-space methods

    CERN Document Server

    Newman, K B; Morgan, B J T; King, R; Borchers, D L; Cole, D J; Besbeas, P; Gimenez, O; Thomas, L

    2014-01-01

    This book gives a unifying framework for estimating the abundance of open populations: populations subject to births, deaths and movement, given imperfect measurements or samples of the populations.  The focus is primarily on populations of vertebrates for which dynamics are typically modelled within the framework of an annual cycle, and for which stochastic variability in the demographic processes is usually modest. Discrete-time models are developed in which animals can be assigned to discrete states such as age class, gender, maturity,  population (within a metapopulation), or species (for multi-species models). The book goes well beyond estimation of abundance, allowing inference on underlying population processes such as birth or recruitment, survival and movement. This requires the formulation and fitting of population dynamics models.  The resulting fitted models yield both estimates of abundance and estimates of parameters characterizing the underlying processes.  

  9. Application of System Dynamics Methodology in Population Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    August Turina

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The goal of this work is to present the application of system dynamics and system thinking, as well as the advantages and possible defects of this analytic approach, in order to improve the analysis of complex systems such as population and, thereby, to monitor more effectively the underlying causes of migrations. This methodology has long been present in interdisciplinary scientific circles, but its scientific contribution has not been sufficiently applied in analysis practice in Croatia. Namely, the major part of system analysis is focused on detailed complexity rather than on dynamic complexity. Generally, the science of complexity deals with emergence, innovation, learning and adaptation. Complexity is viewed according to the number of system components, or through a number of combinations that must be continually analyzed in order to understand and consequently provide adequate decisions. Simulations containing thousands of variables and complex arrays of details distract overall attention from the basic cause patterns and key inter-relations emerging and prevailing within an analyzed population. Systems thinking offers a holistic and integral perspective for observation of the world.

  10. Stochastic dynamics and logistic population growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Méndez, Vicenç; Assaf, Michael; Campos, Daniel; Horsthemke, Werner

    2015-06-01

    The Verhulst model is probably the best known macroscopic rate equation in population ecology. It depends on two parameters, the intrinsic growth rate and the carrying capacity. These parameters can be estimated for different populations and are related to the reproductive fitness and the competition for limited resources, respectively. We investigate analytically and numerically the simplest possible microscopic scenarios that give rise to the logistic equation in the deterministic mean-field limit. We provide a definition of the two parameters of the Verhulst equation in terms of microscopic parameters. In addition, we derive the conditions for extinction or persistence of the population by employing either the momentum-space spectral theory or the real-space Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin approximation to determine the probability distribution function and the mean time to extinction of the population. Our analytical results agree well with numerical simulations.

  11. Seasonal population dynamics and energy consumption by ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dynamiques saisonnières de population et consommation énergétique par les oiseaux aquatiques d'un petit estuaire tempéré De simples mesures des dynamiques de population et de consommation énergétique peuvent fournir des informations de base sur le rôle des consommateurs au sein des réseaux trophiques, ...

  12. Statistical dynamics of regional populations and economies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huo, Jie; Wang, Xu-Ming; Hao, Rui; Wang, Peng

    Quantitative analysis of human behavior and social development is becoming a hot spot of some interdisciplinary studies. A statistical analysis on the population and GDP of 150 cities in China from 1990 to 2013 is conducted. The result indicates the cumulative probability distribution of the populations and that of the GDPs obeying the shifted power law, respectively. In order to understand these characteristics, a generalized Langevin equation describing variation of population is proposed, which is based on the correlations between population and GDP as well as the random fluctuations of the related factors. The equation is transformed into the Fokker-Plank equation to express the evolution of population distribution. The general solution demonstrates a transition of the distribution from the normal Gaussian distribution to a shifted power law, which suggests a critical point of time at which the transition takes place. The shifted power law distribution in the supercritical situation is qualitatively in accordance with the practical result. The distribution of the GDPs is derived from the well-known Cobb-Douglas production function. The result presents a change, in supercritical situation, from a shifted power law to the Gaussian distribution. This is a surprising result-the regional GDP distribution of our world will be the Gaussian distribution one day in the future. The discussions based on the changing trend of economic growth suggest it will be true. Therefore, these theoretical attempts may draw a historical picture of our society in the aspects of population and economy.

  13. Behavior of Brittle Materials Under Dynamic Loading

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Kanel, G

    2000-01-01

    Dynamic loading of brittle materials is related to many applications, including explosive excavation of rocks, design of ceramic armor, meteor impact on spacecraft windows, particle damage to turbine blades, etc...

  14. Missing cycles: Effect of climate change on population dynamics

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    population dynamics of the larch budmoth – an insect pest which causes massive defoliation of entire larch forests ... hypothesized that global warming has led to the collapse of the cycles ... When temperatures increase after winter, and the.

  15. A linear model of population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lushnikov, A. A.; Kagan, A. I.

    2016-08-01

    The Malthus process of population growth is reformulated in terms of the probability w(n,t) to find exactly n individuals at time t assuming that both the birth and the death rates are linear functions of the population size. The master equation for w(n,t) is solved exactly. It is shown that w(n,t) strongly deviates from the Poisson distribution and is expressed in terms either of Laguerre’s polynomials or a modified Bessel function. The latter expression allows for considerable simplifications of the asymptotic analysis of w(n,t).

  16. Dynamics of a structured neuron population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pakdaman, Khashayar; Salort, Delphine; Perthame, Benoît

    2010-01-01

    We study the dynamics of assemblies of interacting neurons. For large fully connected networks, the dynamics of the system can be described by a partial differential equation reminiscent of age-structure models used in mathematical ecology, where the 'age' of a neuron represents the time elapsed since its last discharge. The nonlinearity arises from the connectivity J of the network. We prove some mathematical properties of the model that are directly related to qualitative properties. On the one hand, we prove that it is well-posed and that it admits stationary states which, depending upon the connectivity, can be unique or not. On the other hand, we study the long time behaviour of solutions; both for small and large J, we prove the relaxation to the steady state describing asynchronous firing of the neurons. In the middle range, numerical experiments show that periodic solutions appear expressing re-synchronization of the network and asynchronous firing

  17. POPULATION DYNAMICS OF THE WANDERING ALBATROSS ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Changes in several demographic parameters that appear to be influenced by both environmental and anthropogenic effects are described. From 1994–2001, the proportion of first-time breeders in the population was positively correlated with the maximum ENSO (Niño 3) index, whereas from 1984–2000 the annual survival ...

  18. Stochastic population dynamics of a montane ground-dwelling squirrel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hostetler, Jeffrey A; Kneip, Eva; Van Vuren, Dirk H; Oli, Madan K

    2012-01-01

    Understanding the causes and consequences of population fluctuations is a central goal of ecology. We used demographic data from a long-term (1990-2008) study and matrix population models to investigate factors and processes influencing the dynamics and persistence of a golden-mantled ground squirrel (Callospermophilus lateralis) population, inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat in Colorado, USA. The overall deterministic population growth rate λ was 0.94±SE 0.05 but it varied widely over time, ranging from 0.45±0.09 in 2006 to 1.50±0.12 in 2003, and was below replacement (λbounce back from low densities and prevented extinction. These results suggest that dynamics and persistence of our study population are determined synergistically by density-dependence, stochastic forces, and immigration.

  19. Passivity analysis of higher order evolutionary dynamics and population games

    KAUST Repository

    Mabrok, Mohamed

    2017-01-05

    Evolutionary dynamics describe how the population composition changes in response to the fitness levels, resulting in a closed-loop feedback system. Recent work established a connection between passivity theory and certain classes of population games, namely so-called “stable games”. In particular, it was shown that a combination of stable games and (an analogue of) passive evolutionary dynamics results in stable convergence to Nash equilibrium. This paper considers the converse question of necessary conditions for evolutionary dynamics to exhibit stable behaviors for all generalized stable games. Using methods from robust control analysis, we show that if an evolutionary dynamic does not satisfy a passivity property, then it is possible to construct a generalized stable game that results in instability. The results are illustrated on selected evolutionary dynamics with particular attention to replicator dynamics, which are also shown to be lossless, a special class of passive systems.

  20. Chaos and order in stateless societies: Intercommunity exchange as a factor impacting the population dynamical patterns

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Medvinsky, Alexander B., E-mail: medvinsky@iteb.ru [Institute of Theoretical and Experimental Biophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Pushchino 142290, Moscow Region (Russian Federation); Rusakov, Alexey V. [Institute of Theoretical and Experimental Biophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Pushchino 142290, Moscow Region (Russian Federation)

    2011-06-15

    Highlights: > We model community dynamics in stateless societies. > Intercommunity barter is shown to be a factor impacting the societies dynamics. > Increase in the human population growth rate can lead to appearance of chaos. > Secular and millennial cycles are found to arise as a result of the barter. - Abstract: The once abstract notions of dynamical chaos now appear naturally in various systems [Kaplan D, Glass L. Understanding nonlinear dynamics. New York: Springer; 1995]. As a result, future trajectories of the systems may be difficult to predict. In this paper, we demonstrate the appearance of chaotic dynamics in model human communities, which consist of producers of agricultural product and producers of agricultural equipment. In the case of a solitary community, the horizon of predictability of the human population dynamics is shown to be dependent on both intrinsic instability of the dynamics and the chaotic attractor sizes. Since a separate community is usually a part of a larger commonality, we study the dynamics of social systems consisting of two interacting communities. We show that intercommunity barter can lead to stabilization of the dynamics in one of the communities, which implies persistence of stable equilibrium under changes of the maximum value of the human population growth rate. However, in the neighboring community, the equilibrium turns into a stable limit cycle as the maximum value of the human population growth rate increases. Following an increase in the maximum value of the human population growth rate leads to period-doubling bifurcations resulting in chaotic dynamics. The horizon of predictability of the chaotic oscillations is found to be limited by 5 years. We demonstrate that the intercommunity interaction can lead to the appearance of long-period harmonics in the chaotic time series. The period of the harmonics is of order 100 and 1000 years. Hence the long-period changes in the population size may be considered as an

  1. Chaos and order in stateless societies: Intercommunity exchange as a factor impacting the population dynamical patterns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Medvinsky, Alexander B.; Rusakov, Alexey V.

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → We model community dynamics in stateless societies. → Intercommunity barter is shown to be a factor impacting the societies dynamics. → Increase in the human population growth rate can lead to appearance of chaos. → Secular and millennial cycles are found to arise as a result of the barter. - Abstract: The once abstract notions of dynamical chaos now appear naturally in various systems [Kaplan D, Glass L. Understanding nonlinear dynamics. New York: Springer; 1995]. As a result, future trajectories of the systems may be difficult to predict. In this paper, we demonstrate the appearance of chaotic dynamics in model human communities, which consist of producers of agricultural product and producers of agricultural equipment. In the case of a solitary community, the horizon of predictability of the human population dynamics is shown to be dependent on both intrinsic instability of the dynamics and the chaotic attractor sizes. Since a separate community is usually a part of a larger commonality, we study the dynamics of social systems consisting of two interacting communities. We show that intercommunity barter can lead to stabilization of the dynamics in one of the communities, which implies persistence of stable equilibrium under changes of the maximum value of the human population growth rate. However, in the neighboring community, the equilibrium turns into a stable limit cycle as the maximum value of the human population growth rate increases. Following an increase in the maximum value of the human population growth rate leads to period-doubling bifurcations resulting in chaotic dynamics. The horizon of predictability of the chaotic oscillations is found to be limited by 5 years. We demonstrate that the intercommunity interaction can lead to the appearance of long-period harmonics in the chaotic time series. The period of the harmonics is of order 100 and 1000 years. Hence the long-period changes in the population size may be considered as an

  2. Evolution of entanglement under echo dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prosen, Tomaz; Znidaric, Marko; Seligman, Thomas H.

    2003-01-01

    Echo dynamics and fidelity are often used to discuss stability in quantum-information processing and quantum chaos. Yet fidelity yields no information about entanglement, the characteristic property of quantum mechanics. We study the evolution of entanglement in echo dynamics. We find qualitatively different behavior between integrable and chaotic systems on one hand and between random and coherent initial states for integrable systems on the other. For the latter the evolution of entanglement is given by a classical time scale. Analytic results are illustrated numerically in a Jaynes-Cummings model

  3. Population dynamics and distribution of the coffee berry borer ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Population dynamics and distribution of coffee berry borer, Hypothenemus hampei (Ferrari) (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) were studied on Coffea arabica L. in southwestern region of Ethiopia. Thirty coffee trees were sampled at weekly intervals from 2000 to 2001. Findings of this study showed that coffee berry borer population ...

  4. Ruffed grouse population dynamics in the central and southern Appalachians

    Science.gov (United States)

    John M. Giuliano Tirpak; C. Allan Miller; Thomas J. Allen; Steve Bittner; David A. Buehler; John W. Edwards; Craig A. Harper; William K. Igo; Gary W. Norman; M. Seamster; Dean F. Stauffer

    2006-01-01

    Ruffed grouse (Bonasa urnbellus; hereafter grouse) populations in the central and southern Appalachians are in decline. However, limited information on the dynamics of these populations prevents the development of effective management strategies to reverse these trends. We used radiotelemetry data collected on grouse to parameterize 6 models of...

  5. Stage-Structured Population Dynamics of AEDES AEGYPTI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yusoff, Nuraini; Budin, Harun; Ismail, Salemah

    Aedes aegypti is the main vector in the transmission of dengue fever, a vector-borne disease affecting world population living in tropical and sub-tropical countries. Better understanding of the dynamics of its population growth will help in the efforts of controlling the spread of this disease. In looking at the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti, this paper explored the stage-structured modeling of the population growth of the mosquito using the matrix population model. The life cycle of the mosquito was divided into five stages: eggs, larvae, pupae, adult1 and adult2. Developmental rates were obtained for the average Malaysian temperature and these were used in constructing the transition matrix for the matrix model. The model, which was based only on temperature, projected that the population of Aedes aegypti will blow up with time, which is not realistic. For further work, other factors need to be taken into account to obtain a more realistic result.

  6. [The dynamics of heath indicators of population of industrial town].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalinkin, D E; Karpov, A B; Takhauov, R M; Samoĭlova, Iu A

    2013-01-01

    The article presents the results of analysis of dynamics of health indicators of population of industrial town (medical demographic indicators, disability, morbidity of social hygienically important diseases) during 1970-2010. The classified administrative territorial municipality of Seversk constructed near the Siberian chemical industrial center, the internationally first-rate complex of nuclear industry enterprises was used as a research base. It is demonstrated that dynamics of health indicators of studied population had such negative tendencies as rapid population ageing, population loss due to decrease of natality and increase of mortality (population of able-bodied age included), prevalence of cardio-vascular diseases, malignant neoplasms and external causes, chronization of diseases. The established tendencies are to be considered in management decision making targeted to support and promote population health in industrial towns.

  7. Material properties under intensive dynamic loading

    CERN Document Server

    Cherne, Frank J; Zhernokletov, Mikhail V; Glushak, B L; Zocher, Marvin A

    2007-01-01

    Understanding the physical and thermomechanical response of materials subjected to intensive dynamic loading is a challenge of great significance in engineering today. This volume assumes the task of gathering both experimental and diagnostic methods in one place, since not much information has been previously disseminated in the scientific literature.

  8. Dynamical evolution of a fictitious population of binary Neptune Trojans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunini, Adrián

    2018-03-01

    We present numerical simulations of the evolution of a synthetic population of Binary Neptune Trojans, under the influence of the solar perturbations and tidal friction (the so-called Kozai cycles and tidal friction evolution). Our model includes the dynamical influence of the four giant planets on the heliocentric orbit of the binary centre of mass. In this paper, we explore the evolution of initially tight binaries around the Neptune L4 Lagrange point. We found that the variation of the heliocentric orbital elements due to the libration around the Lagrange point introduces significant changes in the orbital evolution of the binaries. Collisional processes would not play a significant role in the dynamical evolution of Neptune Trojans. After 4.5 × 109 yr of evolution, ˜50 per cent of the synthetic systems end up separated as single objects, most of them with slow diurnal rotation rate. The final orbital distribution of the surviving binary systems is statistically similar to the one found for Kuiper Belt Binaries when collisional evolution is not included in the model. Systems composed by a primary and a small satellite are more fragile than the ones composed by components of similar sizes.

  9. Dynamics of Population on the Verge of Extinction

    OpenAIRE

    Oborny, B.; Meszena, G.; Szabo, G.

    2005-01-01

    Theoretical considerations suggest that extinction in dispersal-limited populations is necessarily a threshold-like process that is analogous to a critical phase transition in physics. We use this analogy to find robust, common features in the dynamics of extinctions, and suggest early warning signals which may indicate that a population is endangered. As the critical threshold of extinction is approached, the population spontaneously fragments into discrete subpopulations and, consequently, ...

  10. Geography, European colonization, and past population dynamics in Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Vaz Silva, Luis

    2005-01-01

    Past population dynamics in Africa have remained largely elusive due to the lack of demographic data. Researchers are understandably deterred from trying to explain what is not known and African historical population estimates suffer from this lack of interest. In this paper I explain present day African population densities using mostly ecological factors as explanatory variables. I find evidence supporting the view that ecological factors deeply affected precolonial patterns of human settle...

  11. Modelling the Dynamics of an Aedes albopictus Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Anung Basuki

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available We present a methodology for modelling population dynamics with formal means of computer science. This allows unambiguous description of systems and application of analysis tools such as simulators and model checkers. In particular, the dynamics of a population of Aedes albopictus (a species of mosquito and its modelling with the Stochastic Calculus of Looping Sequences (Stochastic CLS are considered. The use of Stochastic CLS to model population dynamics requires an extension which allows environmental events (such as changes in the temperature and rainfalls to be taken into account. A simulator for the constructed model is developed via translation into the specification language Maude, and used to compare the dynamics obtained from the model with real data.

  12. Coupling population dynamics with earth system models: the POPEM model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navarro, Andrés; Moreno, Raúl; Jiménez-Alcázar, Alfonso; Tapiador, Francisco J

    2017-09-16

    Precise modeling of CO 2 emissions is important for environmental research. This paper presents a new model of human population dynamics that can be embedded into ESMs (Earth System Models) to improve climate modeling. Through a system dynamics approach, we develop a cohort-component model that successfully simulates historical population dynamics with fine spatial resolution (about 1°×1°). The population projections are used to improve the estimates of CO 2 emissions, thus transcending the bulk approach of existing models and allowing more realistic non-linear effects to feature in the simulations. The module, dubbed POPEM (from Population Parameterization for Earth Models), is compared with current emission inventories and validated against UN aggregated data. Finally, it is shown that the module can be used to advance toward fully coupling the social and natural components of the Earth system, an emerging research path for environmental science and pollution research.

  13. Dynamical community structure of populations evolving on genotype networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Capitán, José A.; Aguirre, Jacobo; Manrubia, Susanna

    2015-01-01

    Neutral evolutionary dynamics of replicators occurs on large and heterogeneous networks of genotypes. These networks, formed by all genotypes that yield the same phenotype, have a complex architecture that conditions the molecular composition of populations and their movements on genome spaces. Here we consider as an example the case of populations evolving on RNA secondary structure neutral networks and study the community structure of the network revealed through dynamical properties of the population at equilibrium and during adaptive transients. We unveil a rich hierarchical community structure that, eventually, can be traced back to the non-trivial relationship between RNA secondary structure and sequence composition. We demonstrate that usual measures of modularity that only take into account the static, topological structure of networks, cannot identify the community structure disclosed by population dynamics

  14. Evolutionary Dynamics of Collective Action in Structured Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, Marta Daniela de Almeida

    The pervasiveness of cooperation in Nature is not easily explained. If evolution is characterized by competition and survival of the fittest, why should selfish individuals cooperate with each other? Evolutionary Game Theory (EGT) provides a suitable mathematical framework to study this problem, central to many areas of science. Conventionally, interactions between individuals are modeled in terms of one-shot, symmetric 2-Person Dilemmas of Cooperation, but many real-life situations involve decisions within groups with more than 2 individuals, which are best-dealt in the framework of N-Person games. In this Thesis, we investigate the evolutionary dynamics of two paradigmatic collective social dilemmas - the N-Person Prisoner's Dilemma (NPD) and the N-Person Snowdrift Game (NSG) on structured populations, modeled by networks with diverse topological properties. Cooperative strategies are just one example of the many traits that can be transmitted on social networks. Several recent studies based on empirical evidence from a medical database have suggested the existence of a 3 degrees of influence rule, according to which not only our "friends", but also our friends' friends, and our friends' friends' friends, have a non-trivial influence on our decisions. We investigate the degree of peer influence that emerges from the spread of cooperative strategies, opinions and diseases on populations with distinct underlying networks of contacts. Our results show that networks naturally entangle individuals into interactions of many-body nature and that for each network class considered different processes lead to identical degrees of influence. None

  15. Effects of wind farms on harbour porpoise behaviour and population dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nabe-Nielsen, Jacob; Tougaard, Jakob; Teilmann, Jonas

    We developed an individual-based simulation model in order to study the cumulative impacts of wind farms and ship traffic on the long-term survival and population dynamics of the harbour porpoise (Phocoena phocoena) in Kattegat and the Belt Seas. The model is based on knowl- edge of the porpoises...... at distances >1 km. Our simulations suggest that operating wind farms and wind farms under construction do not affect the size or dynamics of the harbour porpoise population in Kattegat. Ship traffic may, in contrast, cause the population size to decrease....

  16. Analysis of pile foundations under dynamic loads

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waas, G.; Hartmann, H.G.

    1981-01-01

    A method is presented for the analysis of pile foundations which are subjected to horizontal dynamic loads from earthquakes, airplane impact, gas explosion or other sources. The motion of the pile cap and the pile forces are computed. - The loads may be applied to the pile cap or directly to the piles (e.g. by earthquake wave motion). The soil may be stratified and is considered to be an elastic or visco-elastic medium. The piles are assumed vertical. The method makes use of an approximate fundamental solution for displacements caused by a dynamic point load in a layered visco-elastic medium. The approximation involves a discretization of the medium in the vertical direction. In horizontal directions the medium is treated by continuum theory. The soil medium supports each pile at about 10 to 20 nodes. A dynamic flexiblity matrix for the soil is derived which relates the elastic, damping and inertial forces of the soil to the displacements at each node. It includes effects of radiation damping. All piles are coupled through the soil flexibility matrix. The piles are modelled by beam elements. Transient response is computed using fast discrete Fourier transforms. The arrangement of the piles is arbitrary. However, simple and double symmetry can be accounted for by the computer program. When the pile arrangement is axisymmetric, the degrees of freedom can be reduced to only those of two piles per ring. The influence of the number of piles and the influence of the pile spacing on group stiffness and on pile forces is presented for two soil profiles. Dynamic effects on pile forces of a foundation for a reactor building are studied. They are significant when soils are soft. (orig.)

  17. Intraspecific Genetic dynamics under Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Florez Rodriguez, Alexander

    Climate change has a deep influence on the maintenance and generation of global biodiversity. Past contractions, expansions and shifts in species’ ranges drove to changes in species genetic diversity. Noteworthy, the interaction among: climate change, range, population size and extinction is often...

  18. The finite state projection approach to analyze dynamics of heterogeneous populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Rob; Munsky, Brian

    2017-06-01

    Population modeling aims to capture and predict the dynamics of cell populations in constant or fluctuating environments. At the elementary level, population growth proceeds through sequential divisions of individual cells. Due to stochastic effects, populations of cells are inherently heterogeneous in phenotype, and some phenotypic variables have an effect on division or survival rates, as can be seen in partial drug resistance. Therefore, when modeling population dynamics where the control of growth and division is phenotype dependent, the corresponding model must take account of the underlying cellular heterogeneity. The finite state projection (FSP) approach has often been used to analyze the statistics of independent cells. Here, we extend the FSP analysis to explore the coupling of cell dynamics and biomolecule dynamics within a population. This extension allows a general framework with which to model the state occupations of a heterogeneous, isogenic population of dividing and expiring cells. The method is demonstrated with a simple model of cell-cycle progression, which we use to explore possible dynamics of drug resistance phenotypes in dividing cells. We use this method to show how stochastic single-cell behaviors affect population level efficacy of drug treatments, and we illustrate how slight modifications to treatment regimens may have dramatic effects on drug efficacy.

  19. Dynamics of epidemics outbreaks in heterogeneous populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brockmann, Dirk; Morales-Gallardo, Alejandro; Geisel, Theo

    2007-03-01

    The dynamics of epidemic outbreaks have been investigated in recent years within two alternative theoretical paradigms. The key parameter of mean field type of models such as the SIR model is the basic reproduction number R0, the average number of secondary infections caused by one infected individual. Recently, scale free network models have received much attention as they account for the high variability in the number of social contacts involved. These models predict an infinite basic reproduction number in some cases. We investigate the impact of heterogeneities of contact rates in a generic model for epidemic outbreaks. We present a system in which both the time periods of being infectious and the time periods between transmissions are Poissonian processes. The heterogeneities are introduced by means of strongly variable contact rates. In contrast to scale free network models we observe a finite basic reproduction number and, counterintuitively a smaller overall epidemic outbreak as compared to the homogeneous system. Our study thus reveals that heterogeneities in contact rates do not necessarily facilitate the spread to infectious disease but may well attenuate it.

  20. Computer simulation of population dynamics inside the urban environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreev, A. S.; Inovenkov, I. N.; Echkina, E. Yu.; Nefedov, V. V.; Ponomarenko, L. S.; Tikhomirov, V. V.

    2017-12-01

    In this paper using a mathematical model of the so-called “space-dynamic” approach we investigate the problem of development and temporal dynamics of different urban population groups. For simplicity we consider an interaction of only two population groups inside a single urban area with axial symmetry. This problem can be described qualitatively by a system of two non-stationary nonlinear differential equations of the diffusion type with boundary conditions of the third type. The results of numerical simulations show that with a suitable choice of the diffusion coefficients and interaction functions between different population groups we can receive different scenarios of population dynamics: from complete displacement of one population group by another (originally more “aggressive”) to the “peaceful” situation of co-existence of them together.

  1. Bounds on the dynamics of sink populations with noisy immigration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eager, Eric Alan; Guiver, Chris; Hodgson, Dave; Rebarber, Richard; Stott, Iain; Townley, Stuart

    2014-03-01

    Sink populations are doomed to decline to extinction in the absence of immigration. The dynamics of sink populations are not easily modelled using the standard framework of per capita rates of immigration, because numbers of immigrants are determined by extrinsic sources (for example, source populations, or population managers). Here we appeal to a systems and control framework to place upper and lower bounds on both the transient and future dynamics of sink populations that are subject to noisy immigration. Immigration has a number of interpretations and can fit a wide variety of models found in the literature. We apply the results to case studies derived from published models for Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and blowout penstemon (Penstemon haydenii). Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Feedback between Population and Evolutionary Dynamics Determines the Fate of Social Microbial Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanchez, Alvaro; Gore, Jeff

    2013-01-01

    The evolutionary spread of cheater strategies can destabilize populations engaging in social cooperative behaviors, thus demonstrating that evolutionary changes can have profound implications for population dynamics. At the same time, the relative fitness of cooperative traits often depends upon population density, thus leading to the potential for bi-directional coupling between population density and the evolution of a cooperative trait. Despite the potential importance of these eco-evolutionary feedback loops in social species, they have not yet been demonstrated experimentally and their ecological implications are poorly understood. Here, we demonstrate the presence of a strong feedback loop between population dynamics and the evolutionary dynamics of a social microbial gene, SUC2, in laboratory yeast populations whose cooperative growth is mediated by the SUC2 gene. We directly visualize eco-evolutionary trajectories of hundreds of populations over 50–100 generations, allowing us to characterize the phase space describing the interplay of evolution and ecology in this system. Small populations collapse despite continual evolution towards increased cooperative allele frequencies; large populations with a sufficient number of cooperators “spiral” to a stable state of coexistence between cooperator and cheater strategies. The presence of cheaters does not significantly affect the equilibrium population density, but it does reduce the resilience of the population as well as its ability to adapt to a rapidly deteriorating environment. Our results demonstrate the potential ecological importance of coupling between evolutionary dynamics and the population dynamics of cooperatively growing organisms, particularly in microbes. Our study suggests that this interaction may need to be considered in order to explain intraspecific variability in cooperative behaviors, and also that this feedback between evolution and ecology can critically affect the demographic fate

  3. feedback between population and evolutionary dynamics determines the fate of social microbial populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alvaro Sanchez

    Full Text Available The evolutionary spread of cheater strategies can destabilize populations engaging in social cooperative behaviors, thus demonstrating that evolutionary changes can have profound implications for population dynamics. At the same time, the relative fitness of cooperative traits often depends upon population density, thus leading to the potential for bi-directional coupling between population density and the evolution of a cooperative trait. Despite the potential importance of these eco-evolutionary feedback loops in social species, they have not yet been demonstrated experimentally and their ecological implications are poorly understood. Here, we demonstrate the presence of a strong feedback loop between population dynamics and the evolutionary dynamics of a social microbial gene, SUC2, in laboratory yeast populations whose cooperative growth is mediated by the SUC2 gene. We directly visualize eco-evolutionary trajectories of hundreds of populations over 50-100 generations, allowing us to characterize the phase space describing the interplay of evolution and ecology in this system. Small populations collapse despite continual evolution towards increased cooperative allele frequencies; large populations with a sufficient number of cooperators "spiral" to a stable state of coexistence between cooperator and cheater strategies. The presence of cheaters does not significantly affect the equilibrium population density, but it does reduce the resilience of the population as well as its ability to adapt to a rapidly deteriorating environment. Our results demonstrate the potential ecological importance of coupling between evolutionary dynamics and the population dynamics of cooperatively growing organisms, particularly in microbes. Our study suggests that this interaction may need to be considered in order to explain intraspecific variability in cooperative behaviors, and also that this feedback between evolution and ecology can critically affect the

  4. Rapid evolution leads to differential population dynamics and top-down control in resurrected Daphnia populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goitom, Eyerusalem; Kilsdonk, Laurens J; Brans, Kristien; Jansen, Mieke; Lemmens, Pieter; De Meester, Luc

    2018-01-01

    There is growing evidence of rapid genetic adaptation of natural populations to environmental change, opening the perspective that evolutionary trait change may subsequently impact ecological processes such as population dynamics, community composition, and ecosystem functioning. To study such eco-evolutionary feedbacks in natural populations, however, requires samples across time. Here, we capitalize on a resurrection ecology study that documented rapid and adaptive evolution in a natural population of the water flea Daphnia magna in response to strong changes in predation pressure by fish, and carry out a follow-up mesocosm experiment to test whether the observed genetic changes influence population dynamics and top-down control of phytoplankton. We inoculated populations of the water flea D. magna derived from three time periods of the same natural population known to have genetically adapted to changes in predation pressure in replicate mesocosms and monitored both Daphnia population densities and phytoplankton biomass in the presence and absence of fish. Our results revealed differences in population dynamics and top-down control of algae between mesocosms harboring populations from the time period before, during, and after a peak in fish predation pressure caused by human fish stocking. The differences, however, deviated from our a priori expectations. An S-map approach on time series revealed that the interactions between adults and juveniles strongly impacted the dynamics of populations and their top-down control on algae in the mesocosms, and that the strength of these interactions was modulated by rapid evolution as it occurred in nature. Our study provides an example of an evolutionary response that fundamentally alters the processes structuring population dynamics and impacts ecosystem features.

  5. Rapid freezing of water under dynamic compression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myint, Philip C.; Belof, Jonathan L.

    2018-06-01

    Understanding the behavior of materials at extreme pressures is a central issue in fields like aerodynamics, astronomy, and geology, as well as for advancing technological grand challenges such as inertial confinement fusion. Dynamic compression experiments to probe high-pressure states often encounter rapid phase transitions that may cause the materials to behave in unexpected ways, and understanding the kinetics of these phase transitions remains an area of great interest. In this review, we examine experimental and theoretical/computational efforts to study the freezing kinetics of water to a high-pressure solid phase known as ice VII. We first present a detailed analysis of dynamic compression experiments in which water has been observed to freeze on sub-microsecond time scales to ice VII. This is followed by a discussion of the limitations of currently available molecular and continuum simulation methods in modeling these experiments. We then describe how our phase transition kinetics models, which are based on classical nucleation theory, provide a more physics-based framework that overcomes some of these limitations. Finally, we give suggestions on future experimental and modeling work on the liquid–ice VII transition, including an outline of the development of a predictive multiscale model in which molecular and continuum simulations are intimately coupled.

  6. Hot carrier injection degradation under dynamic stress

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ma Xiao-Hua; Cao Yan-Rong; Hao Yue; Zhang Yue

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, we have studied hot carrier injection (HCI) under alternant stress. Under different stress modes, different degradations are obtained from the experiment results. The different alternate stresses can reduce or enhance the HC effect, which mainly depends on the latter condition of the stress cycle. In the stress mode A (DC stress with electron injection), the degradation keeps increasing. In the stress modes B (DC stress and then stress with the smallest gate injection) and C (DC stress and then stress with hole injection under V g = 0 V and V d = 1.8 V), recovery appears in the second stress period. And in the stress mode D (DC stress and then stress with hole injection under V g = −1.8 V and V d = 1.8 V), as the traps filled in by holes can be smaller or greater than the generated interface states, the continued degradation or recovery in different stress periods can be obtained. (condensed matter: electronic structure, electrical, magnetic, and optical properties)

  7. Population and evolutionary dynamics in spatially structured seasonally varying environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reid, Jane M; Travis, Justin M J; Daunt, Francis; Burthe, Sarah J; Wanless, Sarah; Dytham, Calvin

    2018-03-25

    Increasingly imperative objectives in ecology are to understand and forecast population dynamic and evolutionary responses to seasonal environmental variation and change. Such population and evolutionary dynamics result from immediate and lagged responses of all key life-history traits, and resulting demographic rates that affect population growth rate, to seasonal environmental conditions and population density. However, existing population dynamic and eco-evolutionary theory and models have not yet fully encompassed within-individual and among-individual variation, covariation, structure and heterogeneity, and ongoing evolution, in a critical life-history trait that allows individuals to respond to seasonal environmental conditions: seasonal migration. Meanwhile, empirical studies aided by new animal-tracking technologies are increasingly demonstrating substantial within-population variation in the occurrence and form of migration versus year-round residence, generating diverse forms of 'partial migration' spanning diverse species, habitats and spatial scales. Such partially migratory systems form a continuum between the extreme scenarios of full migration and full year-round residence, and are commonplace in nature. Here, we first review basic scenarios of partial migration and associated models designed to identify conditions that facilitate the maintenance of migratory polymorphism. We highlight that such models have been fundamental to the development of partial migration theory, but are spatially and demographically simplistic compared to the rich bodies of population dynamic theory and models that consider spatially structured populations with dispersal but no migration, or consider populations experiencing strong seasonality and full obligate migration. Second, to provide an overarching conceptual framework for spatio-temporal population dynamics, we define a 'partially migratory meta-population' system as a spatially structured set of locations that can

  8. Dinámica de las Poblaciones de Lombrices en un Andisol Sometido a Distintos Sistemas de Uso del Suelo / Population Dynamics of Earthworms in an Andisol under Different Soil Use Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramiro Ramírez Pisco

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Se evaluó la composición taxonómica de la poblaciónde lombrices en un Andisol en la vereda Montañitas del municipio Marinilla (Antioquia, Colombia luego de 5 y 10 años de labranza, después de 5 y 10 años de barbecho y en condiciones prístinas. El muestreo fue realizado por el método del monolito, propuesto por el programa Tropical Soil Biology and Fertility (TSBF. Se realizó extracción directa de los individuos, los cuales fueron caracterizadosy descritos según los géneros encontrados en cada condición, para luego relacionarlos con los usos del suelo; fueron encontrados tres géneros: Pontoscolex corenthrurus, Amynthas corticis y Martiodrilus sp. En el suelo virgen se presentó P. corenthrurus, pero luego de 5 años de labranza se evidenció un predominio del género A. corticis y una baja presencia del género Martiodrilus sp. Luego de 10 años de labranza no se encontraron anélidos; sin embargo, durante el barbecho la población de lombrices incrementó en forma significativa. Los agregados estables del suelo disminuyeron en la medida en que el suelo fue sometidoa labranza, y se incrementó durante los periodos de barbecho, asociado a la densidad de lombrices y a su concentración en los primeros 10 cm de profundidad, corroborando su participación en la agregación del suelo. / The taxonomic composition of the population ofearthworms in Andisol was evaluated on the rural area ofMontañitas, Marinilla municipality (Antioquia, Colombia, under different conditions: after 5 and 10 years of farming, after 5 and 10 years of fallow as well as under pristine conditions. The sampling was performed by using the method of the monolith, proposed by the program Tropical Soil Biology and Fertility (TSBF.The specimens were obtained by direct extraction from eachsample, which then were characterized and described according to genera found under each condition, and then relate land usage.Three different genera of earthworms were found

  9. The basic approach to age-structured population dynamics models, methods and numerics

    CERN Document Server

    Iannelli, Mimmo

    2017-01-01

    This book provides an introduction to age-structured population modeling which emphasises the connection between mathematical theory and underlying biological assumptions. Through the rigorous development of the linear theory and the nonlinear theory alongside numerics, the authors explore classical equations that describe the dynamics of certain ecological systems. Modeling aspects are discussed to show how relevant problems in the fields of demography, ecology, and epidemiology can be formulated and treated within the theory. In particular, the book presents extensions of age-structured modelling to the spread of diseases and epidemics while also addressing the issue of regularity of solutions, the asymptotic behaviour of solutions, and numerical approximation. With sections on transmission models, non-autonomous models and global dynamics, this book fills a gap in the literature on theoretical population dynamics. The Basic Approach to Age-Structured Population Dynamics will appeal to graduate students an...

  10. Quantum Entanglement Growth under Random Unitary Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nahum, Adam; Ruhman, Jonathan; Vijay, Sagar; Haah, Jeongwan

    2017-07-01

    Characterizing how entanglement grows with time in a many-body system, for example, after a quantum quench, is a key problem in nonequilibrium quantum physics. We study this problem for the case of random unitary dynamics, representing either Hamiltonian evolution with time-dependent noise or evolution by a random quantum circuit. Our results reveal a universal structure behind noisy entanglement growth, and also provide simple new heuristics for the "entanglement tsunami" in Hamiltonian systems without noise. In 1D, we show that noise causes the entanglement entropy across a cut to grow according to the celebrated Kardar-Parisi-Zhang (KPZ) equation. The mean entanglement grows linearly in time, while fluctuations grow like (time )1/3 and are spatially correlated over a distance ∝(time )2/3. We derive KPZ universal behavior in three complementary ways, by mapping random entanglement growth to (i) a stochastic model of a growing surface, (ii) a "minimal cut" picture, reminiscent of the Ryu-Takayanagi formula in holography, and (iii) a hydrodynamic problem involving the dynamical spreading of operators. We demonstrate KPZ universality in 1D numerically using simulations of random unitary circuits. Importantly, the leading-order time dependence of the entropy is deterministic even in the presence of noise, allowing us to propose a simple coarse grained minimal cut picture for the entanglement growth of generic Hamiltonians, even without noise, in arbitrary dimensionality. We clarify the meaning of the "velocity" of entanglement growth in the 1D entanglement tsunami. We show that in higher dimensions, noisy entanglement evolution maps to the well-studied problem of pinning of a membrane or domain wall by disorder.

  11. Quantum Entanglement Growth under Random Unitary Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam Nahum

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Characterizing how entanglement grows with time in a many-body system, for example, after a quantum quench, is a key problem in nonequilibrium quantum physics. We study this problem for the case of random unitary dynamics, representing either Hamiltonian evolution with time-dependent noise or evolution by a random quantum circuit. Our results reveal a universal structure behind noisy entanglement growth, and also provide simple new heuristics for the “entanglement tsunami” in Hamiltonian systems without noise. In 1D, we show that noise causes the entanglement entropy across a cut to grow according to the celebrated Kardar-Parisi-Zhang (KPZ equation. The mean entanglement grows linearly in time, while fluctuations grow like (time^{1/3} and are spatially correlated over a distance ∝(time^{2/3}. We derive KPZ universal behavior in three complementary ways, by mapping random entanglement growth to (i a stochastic model of a growing surface, (ii a “minimal cut” picture, reminiscent of the Ryu-Takayanagi formula in holography, and (iii a hydrodynamic problem involving the dynamical spreading of operators. We demonstrate KPZ universality in 1D numerically using simulations of random unitary circuits. Importantly, the leading-order time dependence of the entropy is deterministic even in the presence of noise, allowing us to propose a simple coarse grained minimal cut picture for the entanglement growth of generic Hamiltonians, even without noise, in arbitrary dimensionality. We clarify the meaning of the “velocity” of entanglement growth in the 1D entanglement tsunami. We show that in higher dimensions, noisy entanglement evolution maps to the well-studied problem of pinning of a membrane or domain wall by disorder.

  12. An age-structured population balance model for microbial dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Duarte M.V.E.

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available This work presents an age-structured population balance model (ASPBM for a bioprocess in a continuous stirred-tank fermentor. It relates the macroscopic properties and dynamic behavior of biomass to the operational parameters and microscopic properties of cells. Population dynamics is governed by two time- and age-dependent density functions for living and dead cells, accounting for the influence of substrate and dissolved oxygen concentrations on cell division, aging and death processes. The ASPBM described biomass and substrate oscillations in aerobic continuous cultures as experimentally observed. It is noteworthy that a small data set consisting of nonsegregated measurements was sufficient to adjust a complex segregated mathematical model.

  13. Estimating spatio-temporal dynamics of size-structured populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Kasper; Thygesen, Uffe Høgsbro; Andersen, Ken Haste

    2014-01-01

    with simple stock dynamics, to estimate simultaneously how size distributions and spatial distributions develop in time. We demonstrate the method for a cod population sampled by trawl surveys. Particular attention is paid to correlation between size classes within each trawl haul due to clustering...... of individuals with similar size. The model estimates growth, mortality and reproduction, after which any aspect of size-structure, spatio-temporal population dynamics, as well as the sampling process can be probed. This is illustrated by two applications: 1) tracking the spatial movements of a single cohort...

  14. Network evolution induced by the dynamical rules of two populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Platini, Thierry; Zia, R K P

    2010-01-01

    We study the dynamical properties of a finite dynamical network composed of two interacting populations, namely extrovert (a) and introvert (b). In our model, each group is characterized by its size (N a and N b ) and preferred degree (κ a and κ b a ). The network dynamics is governed by the competing microscopic rules of each population that consist of the creation and destruction of links. Starting from an unconnected network, we give a detailed analysis of the mean field approach which is compared to Monte Carlo simulation data. The time evolution of the restricted degrees (k bb ) and (k ab ) presents three time regimes and a non-monotonic behavior well captured by our theory. Surprisingly, when the population sizes are equal N a = N b , the ratio of the restricted degree θ 0 = (k ab )/(k bb ) appears to be an integer in the asymptotic limits of the three time regimes. For early times (defined by t 1 = κ b ) the total number of links presents a linear evolution, where the two populations are indistinguishable and where θ 0 = 1. Interestingly, in the intermediate time regime (defined for t 1 2 ∝κ a and for which θ 0 = 5), the system reaches a transient stationary state, where the number of contacts among introverts remains constant while the number of connections increases linearly in the extrovert population. Finally, due to the competing dynamics, the network presents a frustrated stationary state characterized by a ratio θ 0 = 3

  15. Social Information Links Individual Behavior to Population and Community Dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gil, Michael A; Hein, Andrew M; Spiegel, Orr; Baskett, Marissa L; Sih, Andrew

    2018-05-07

    When individual animals make decisions, they routinely use information produced intentionally or unintentionally by other individuals. Despite its prevalence and established fitness consequences, the effects of such social information on ecological dynamics remain poorly understood. Here, we synthesize results from ecology, evolutionary biology, and animal behavior to show how the use of social information can profoundly influence the dynamics of populations and communities. We combine recent theoretical and empirical results and introduce simple population models to illustrate how social information use can drive positive density-dependent growth of populations and communities (Allee effects). Furthermore, social information can shift the nature and strength of species interactions, change the outcome of competition, and potentially increase extinction risk in harvested populations and communities. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Population dynamics of active and total ciliate populations in arable soil amended with wheat

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ekelund, F.; Frederiksen, Helle B.; Ronn, R.

    2002-01-01

    of the population may be encysted. The factors governing the dynamics of active and encysted cells in the soil are not well understood. Our objective was to determine the dynamics of active and encysted populations of ciliates during the decomposition of freshly added organic material. We monitored, in soil...... microcosms, the active and total populations of ciliates, their potential prey (bacteria and small protozoa), their potential competitors (amoebae, flagellates, and nematodes), and their potential predators (nematodes). We sampled with short time intervals (2 to 6 days) and generated a data set, suitable...

  17. Stochastic population dynamics of a montane ground-dwelling squirrel.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffrey A Hostetler

    Full Text Available Understanding the causes and consequences of population fluctuations is a central goal of ecology. We used demographic data from a long-term (1990-2008 study and matrix population models to investigate factors and processes influencing the dynamics and persistence of a golden-mantled ground squirrel (Callospermophilus lateralis population, inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat in Colorado, USA. The overall deterministic population growth rate λ was 0.94±SE 0.05 but it varied widely over time, ranging from 0.45±0.09 in 2006 to 1.50±0.12 in 2003, and was below replacement (λ<1 for 9 out of 18 years. The stochastic population growth rate λ(s was 0.92, suggesting a declining population; however, the 95% CI on λ(s included 1.0 (0.52-1.60. Stochastic elasticity analysis showed that survival of adult females, followed by survival of juvenile females and litter size, were potentially the most influential vital rates; analysis of life table response experiments revealed that the same three life history variables made the largest contributions to year-to year changes in λ. Population viability analysis revealed that, when the influences of density dependence and immigration were not considered, the population had a high (close to 1.0 in 50 years probability of extinction. However, probability of extinction declined to as low as zero when density dependence and immigration were considered. Destabilizing effects of stochastic forces were counteracted by regulating effects of density dependence and rescue effects of immigration, which allowed our study population to bounce back from low densities and prevented extinction. These results suggest that dynamics and persistence of our study population are determined synergistically by density-dependence, stochastic forces, and immigration.

  18. SIR dynamics in structured populations with heterogeneous connectivity

    OpenAIRE

    Volz, Erik

    2005-01-01

    Most epidemic models assume equal mixing among members of a population. An alternative approach is to model a population as random network in which individuals may have heterogeneous connectivity. This paper builds on previous research by describing the exact dynamical behavior of epidemics as they occur in random networks. A system of nonlinear differential equations is presented which describes the behavior of epidemics spreading through random networks with arbitrary degree distributions. ...

  19. Stochastic Online Learning in Dynamic Networks under Unknown Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-08-02

    The key is to develop online learning strategies at each individual node. Specifically, through local information exchange with its neighbors, each...infinitely repeated game with incomplete information and developed a dynamic pricing strategy referred to as Competitive and Cooperative Demand Learning...Stochastic Online Learning in Dynamic Networks under Unknown Models This research aims to develop fundamental theories and practical algorithms for

  20. Dynamic elastic moduli of rocks under pressure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schock, R N [Lawrence Radiation Laboratory, University of California, Livermore, CA (United States)

    1970-05-01

    Elastic moduli are determined as a function of confining pressure to 10 kb on rocks in which Plowshare shots are to be fired. Numerical simulation codes require accurate information on the mechanical response of the rock medium to various stress levels in order to predict cavity dimensions. The theoretical treatment of small strains in an elastic medium relates the propagation velocity of compressional and shear waves to the elastic moduli. Velocity measurements can provide, as unique code input data, the rigidity modulus, Poisson' ratio and the shear wave velocity, as well as providing checks on independent determinations of the other moduli. Velocities are determined using pulsed electro-mechanical transducers and measuring the time-of-flight in the rock specimen. A resonant frequency of 1 MHz is used to insure that the wavelength exceeds the average grain dimension and is subject to bulk rock properties. Data obtained on a variety of rock types are presented and analyzed. These data are discussed in terms of their relationship to moduli measured by static methods as well as the effect of anisotropy, porosity, and fractures. In general, fractured rocks with incipient cracks show large increases in velocity and moduli in the first 1 to 2 kb of compression as a result of the closing of these voids. After this, the velocities increase much more slowly. Dynamic moduli for these rocks are often 10% higher than corresponding static moduli at low pressure, but this difference decreases as the voids are closed until the moduli agree within experimental error. The discrepancy at low pressure is a result of the elastic energy in the wave pulse being propagated around cracks, with little effect on propagation velocity averaged over the entire specimen. (author)

  1. Dynamic elastic moduli of rocks under pressure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schock, R.N.

    1970-01-01

    Elastic moduli are determined as a function of confining pressure to 10 kb on rocks in which Plowshare shots are to be fired. Numerical simulation codes require accurate information on the mechanical response of the rock medium to various stress levels in order to predict cavity dimensions. The theoretical treatment of small strains in an elastic medium relates the propagation velocity of compressional and shear waves to the elastic moduli. Velocity measurements can provide, as unique code input data, the rigidity modulus, Poisson' ratio and the shear wave velocity, as well as providing checks on independent determinations of the other moduli. Velocities are determined using pulsed electro-mechanical transducers and measuring the time-of-flight in the rock specimen. A resonant frequency of 1 MHz is used to insure that the wavelength exceeds the average grain dimension and is subject to bulk rock properties. Data obtained on a variety of rock types are presented and analyzed. These data are discussed in terms of their relationship to moduli measured by static methods as well as the effect of anisotropy, porosity, and fractures. In general, fractured rocks with incipient cracks show large increases in velocity and moduli in the first 1 to 2 kb of compression as a result of the closing of these voids. After this, the velocities increase much more slowly. Dynamic moduli for these rocks are often 10% higher than corresponding static moduli at low pressure, but this difference decreases as the voids are closed until the moduli agree within experimental error. The discrepancy at low pressure is a result of the elastic energy in the wave pulse being propagated around cracks, with little effect on propagation velocity averaged over the entire specimen. (author)

  2. Estimating Traveler Populations at Airport and Cruise Terminals for Population Distribution and Dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jochem, Warren C [ORNL; Sims, Kelly M [ORNL; Bright, Eddie A [ORNL; Urban, Marie L [ORNL; Rose, Amy N [ORNL; Coleman, Phil R [ORNL; Bhaduri, Budhendra L [ORNL

    2013-01-01

    In recent years, uses of high-resolution population distribution databases are increasing steadily for environmental, socioeconomic, public health, and disaster-related research and operations. With the development of daytime population distribution, temporal resolution of such databases has been improved. However, the lack of incorporation of transitional population, namely business and leisure travelers, leaves a significant population unaccounted for within the critical infrastructure networks, such as at transportation hubs. This paper presents two general methodologies for estimating passenger populations in airport and cruise port terminals at a high temporal resolution which can be incorporated into existing population distribution models. The methodologies are geographically scalable and are based on, and demonstrate how, two different transportation hubs with disparate temporal population dynamics can be modeled utilizing publicly available databases including novel data sources of flight activity from the Internet which are updated in near-real time. The airport population estimation model shows great potential for rapid implementation for a large collection of airports on a national scale, and the results suggest reasonable accuracy in the estimated passenger traffic. By incorporating population dynamics at high temporal resolutions into population distribution models, we hope to improve the estimates of populations exposed to or at risk to disasters, thereby improving emergency planning and response, and leading to more informed policy decisions.

  3. Potential impact of harvesting on the population dynamics of two epiphytic bromeliads

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toledo-Aceves, Tarin; Hernández-Apolinar, Mariana; Valverde, Teresa

    2014-08-01

    Large numbers of epiphytes are extracted from cloud forests for ornamental use and illegal trade in Latin America. We examined the potential effects of different harvesting regimes on the population dynamics of the epiphytic bromeliads Tillandsia multicaulis and Tillandsia punctulata. The population dynamics of these species were studied over a 2-year period in a tropical montane cloud forest in Veracruz, Mexico. Prospective and retrospective analyses were used to identify which demographic processes and life-cycle stages make the largest relative contribution to variation in population growth rate (λ). The effect of simulated harvesting levels on population growth rates was analysed for both species. λ of both populations was highly influenced by survival (stasis), to a lesser extent by growth, and only slightly by fecundity. Vegetative growth played a central role in the population dynamics of these organisms. The λ value of the studied populations did not differ significantly from unity: T. multicaulis λ (95% confidence interval) = 0.982 (0.897-1.060) and T. punctulata λ = 0.967 (0.815-1.051), suggesting population stability. However, numerical simulation of different levels of extraction showed that λ would drop substantially even under very low (2%) harvesting levels. Matrix analysis revealed that T. multicaulis and T. punctulata populations are likely to decline and therefore commercial harvesting would be unsustainable. Based on these findings, management recommendations are outlined.

  4. Population dynamics and monitoring applied to decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Conroy, M. J.

    2004-06-01

    influence diagrams to capture the stochastic, temporal processes of managing cheetah population in Kenya. The model predicts likely anagement decisions made by various actors within these countries, (e.g., the President, the Environmental Protection Agency, and rural residents and the resulting probability of cheetah extinction following these decisions. By approaching the problem in both its political and ecological contexts one avoids consideration of decisions that, while beneficial from a purely conservation point of view, are unlikely to be implemented because of conflicting political objectives. Haas’s analysis demonstrates both the promise and challenges of this type of modeling, and he offers suggestions for overcoming inherent technical difficulties such as model calibration. The second paper, by Simon Hoyle and Mark Maunder (Hoyle & Maunder, 2004, uses a Bayesian approach to model population dynamics and the effects of commercial fishing bycatch for the eastern Pacific Ocean spotted dolphin (Stenella attenuata. Their paper provides a good example of why Bayesian analysis is particularly suited to many management problems. Namely, because it allows the integration of disparate pieces of monitoring data in the simultaneous estimation of population parameters; allows forincorporation of expert judgment and data from other systems and species; and provides for explicit consideration of uncertainty in decision–making. Alternative management scenarios can then be explored via forward simulations. In the third paper, Chris Fonnesbeck and Mike Conroy (Fonnesbeck & Conroy, 2004 present an integrated approach for estimating parameters and predicting abundance of American black duck (Anas rubripes populations. They also employ a ayesian approach and overcome some of the computational challenges by using Markov chain–Monte Carlo methods. Ring–recovery and harvest data are used to estimate fall age ratios under alternative reproductive models. These in turn are used to

  5. Stochastic population dynamics in populations of western terrestrial garter snakes with divergent life histories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, David A; Clark, William R; Arnold, Stevan J; Bronikowski, Anne M

    2011-08-01

    Comparative evaluations of population dynamics in species with temporal and spatial variation in life-history traits are rare because they require long-term demographic time series from multiple populations. We present such an analysis using demographic data collected during the interval 1978-1996 for six populations of western terrestrial garter snakes (Thamnophis elegans) from two evolutionarily divergent ecotypes. Three replicate populations from a slow-living ecotype, found in mountain meadows of northeastern California, were characterized by individuals that develop slowly, mature late, reproduce infrequently with small reproductive effort, and live longer than individuals of three populations of a fast-living ecotype found at lakeshore locales. We constructed matrix population models for each of the populations based on 8-13 years of data per population and analyzed both deterministic dynamics based on mean annual vital rates and stochastic dynamics incorporating annual variation in vital rates. (1) Contributions of highly variable vital rates to fitness (lambda(s)) were buffered against the negative effects of stochastic variation, and this relationship was consistent with differences between the meadow (M-slow) and lakeshore (L-fast) ecotypes. (2) Annual variation in the proportion of gravid females had the greatest negative effect among all vital rates on lambda(s). The magnitude of variation in the proportion of gravid females and its effect on lambda(s) was greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. (3) Variation in the proportion of gravid females, in turn, depended on annual variation in prey availability, and its effect on lambda(s) was 4 23 times greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. In addition to differences in stochastic dynamics between ecotypes, we also found higher mean mortality rates across all age classes in the L-fast populations. Our results suggest that both deterministic and stochastic selective forces have affected the evolution of

  6. Population dynamics of light-limited phytoplankton : Microcosm experiments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huisman, Jef

    This paper investigates the extent to which the predictions of an elementary model for light-limited growth are matched by laboratory experiments with light-limited phytoplankton. The model and experiments link the population dynamics of phytoplankton species with changes in the light gradient

  7. Distribution and population dynamics of Rhizobium sp. introduced into soil

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Postma, J.

    1989-01-01

    In this thesis the population dynamics of bacteria introduced into soil was studied. In the introduction, the existence of microhabitats favourable for the survival of indigenous bacteria is discussed. Knowledge about the distribution of introduced bacteria over

  8. seasonal population dynamics of rodents of mount chilalo, arsi ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

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    ABSTRACT: A study on seasonal population dynamics of rodents was carried out on Mount. Chilalo from .... vegetation growth, availability of food and water, and ... vegetation (3,300–4,200 masl) (Alemayehu. Mengistu, 1975; APEDO and ABRDP, 2004). The mountain is one of the Afrotropical biodiversity hotspots areas.

  9. Population dynamics of soil microbes and diversity of Bacillus ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ONOS

    2010-01-25

    Jan 25, 2010 ... Population dynamics of soil microbes and diversity of ... 25.78, 25.78, 86.26, 24.73, 68.0, 26.8 and 26.8 kDa proteins and equivalent to Cyt, Cry5 and Cry2 toxins ..... Molecular weight (kDa) of protein fractions of the BT isolates.

  10. Population dynamics of the invasive fish, Gambusia affinis , in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Repeated-measures ANOVA analyses on the catch per unit effort (CPUE) of G. affinis between sampling events and dams revealed significant differences in population dynamics among dams, although an overall trend of rapid increase followed by plateau in summer, with a rapid decline in winter was seen in most dams.

  11. Individual based model of slug population and spatial dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Choi, Y.H.; Bohan, D.A.; Potting, R.P.J.; Semenov, M.A.; Glen, D.M.

    2006-01-01

    The slug, Deroceras reticulatum, is one of the most important pests of agricultural and horticultural crops in UK and Europe. In this paper, a spatially explicit individual based model (IbM) is developed to study the dynamics of a population of D. reticulatum. The IbM establishes a virtual field

  12. Network evolution induced by the dynamical rules of two populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Platini, Thierry; Zia, R. K. P.

    2010-10-01

    We study the dynamical properties of a finite dynamical network composed of two interacting populations, namely extrovert (a) and introvert (b). In our model, each group is characterized by its size (Na and Nb) and preferred degree (κa and \\kappa_b\\ll \\kappa_a ). The network dynamics is governed by the competing microscopic rules of each population that consist of the creation and destruction of links. Starting from an unconnected network, we give a detailed analysis of the mean field approach which is compared to Monte Carlo simulation data. The time evolution of the restricted degrees langkbbrang and langkabrang presents three time regimes and a non-monotonic behavior well captured by our theory. Surprisingly, when the population sizes are equal Na = Nb, the ratio of the restricted degree θ0 = langkabrang/langkbbrang appears to be an integer in the asymptotic limits of the three time regimes. For early times (defined by t introverts remains constant while the number of connections increases linearly in the extrovert population. Finally, due to the competing dynamics, the network presents a frustrated stationary state characterized by a ratio θ0 = 3.

  13. An individual-based model of Zebrafish population dynamics accounting for energy dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beaudouin, Remy; Goussen, Benoit; Piccini, Benjamin

    2015-01-01

    Developing population dynamics models for zebrafish is crucial in order to extrapolate from toxicity data measured at the organism level to biological levels relevant to support and enhance ecological risk assessment. To achieve this, a dynamic energy budget for individual zebrafish (DEB model...

  14. [Population dynamics and armed violence in Colombia, 1985-2010].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salaya, Hernán Eduardo; Rodríguez, Jesús

    2014-09-01

    Describe changes in the population structure of Colombia's municipalities in relation to internal displacement in response to armed violence. A descriptive ecological study was carried out. Secondary sources were consulted, taken from the Consolidated Registry of Displaced Population and from the National Administrative Department of Statistics, to calculate expulsion and reception rates for population displaced by violence from 2002 to 2010. Based on these rates, four groups were created of municipalities in the extreme quartile for each rate during the entire period, which were classified as high expulsion, low expulsion, high reception, and low reception. Subsequently, population pyramids and structure indicators were constructed for each group of municipalities for two comparative reference years (1985 and 2010). Municipalities with high expulsion or reception rates experienced a slower epidemiological transition, with lower mean ages and aging indices. The high expulsion group had the least regression, based on the Sundbärg index. In the high reception group, the masculinity ratio decreased the most, especially among the economically active population, and it had the highest population growth. Population dynamics in Colombia have been affected by armed violence and changes in these dynamics are not uniform across the country, leading to important social, economic, and cultural consequences. This study is useful for decision-making and public policy making.

  15. Nonequilibrium population dynamics of phenotype conversion of cancer cells.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph Xu Zhou

    Full Text Available Tumorigenesis is a dynamic biological process that involves distinct cancer cell subpopulations proliferating at different rates and interconverting between them. In this paper we proposed a mathematical framework of population dynamics that considers both distinctive growth rates and intercellular transitions between cancer cell populations. Our mathematical framework showed that both growth and transition influence the ratio of cancer cell subpopulations but the latter is more significant. We derived the condition that different cancer cell types can maintain distinctive subpopulations and we also explain why there always exists a stable fixed ratio after cell sorting based on putative surface markers. The cell fraction ratio can be shifted by changing either the growth rates of the subpopulations (Darwinism selection or by environment-instructed transitions (Lamarckism induction. This insight can help us to understand the dynamics of the heterogeneity of cancer cells and lead us to new strategies to overcome cancer drug resistance.

  16. Generalization of the Rabi population inversion dynamics in the sub-one-cycle pulse limit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doslic, N.

    2006-01-01

    We consider the population inversion in a two-level system generated by a sub-one-cycle pulse excitation. Specifically, we explore the effect that the time derivative of the pulse envelope has on the Rabi dynamics. Our analysis is based on a combination of analytical, perturbative, and nonperturbative treatments and is complemented by numerical simulations. We find a shortening of the Rabi inversion period and show that complete inversion is unobtainable under resonant, ultrashort pulse conditions. The impact of nonresonant and carrier-envelope phase-dependent effects on the dynamics of two-level and multilevel systems is studied numerically, and conditions for complete population inversion are derived

  17. Cooperation Dilemma in Finite Populations under Fluctuating Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assaf, Michael; Mobilia, Mauro; Roberts, Elijah

    2013-12-01

    We present a novel approach allowing the study of rare events like fixation under fluctuating environments, modeled as extrinsic noise, in evolutionary processes characterized by the dominance of one species. Our treatment consists of mapping the system onto an auxiliary model, exhibiting metastable species coexistence, that can be analyzed semiclassically. This approach enables us to study the interplay between extrinsic and demographic noise on the statistics of interest. We illustrate our theory by considering the paradigmatic prisoner’s dilemma game, whose evolution is described by the probability that cooperators fixate the population and replace all defectors. We analytically and numerically demonstrate that extrinsic noise may drastically enhance the cooperation fixation probability and even change its functional dependence on the population size. These results, which generalize earlier works in population genetics, indicate that extrinsic noise may help sustain and promote a much higher level of cooperation than static settings.

  18. The population and decay evolution of a qubit under the time-convolutionless master equation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang Jiang; Fang Mao-Fa; Liu Xiang

    2012-01-01

    We consider the population and decay of a qubit under the electromagnetic environment. Employing the time-convolutionless master equation, we investigate the Markovian and non-Markovian behaviour of the corresponding perturbation expansion. The Jaynes-Cummings model on resonance is investigated. Some figures clearly show the different evolution behaviours. The reasons are interpreted in the paper. (electromagnetism, optics, acoustics, heat transfer, classical mechanics, and fluid dynamics)

  19. Dynamic of population-dynamics in a medically important snail species Lymnaea (Radix Luteola (Lamarck

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. K. Misra

    1993-09-01

    Full Text Available The life-cycle parameters of the snail Lymnaea (Radix luteola and the factors influencing the same have been studied under laboratory conditions. Ins each month, from July 1990 to June 1991, a batch of 100 zero-day old individual were considered for studies. The snails of April batch survived for 19.42 days while those in December batch survived for 87.45 days. The May batch individual though survived for 65.67 days gained maximum shell size (15.84 mm in length and body weight (419.87 mg. All individuals of April batch died prior to attainment of sexual maturity. In the remaining 11 batches the snails became sexually mature between 32 and 53 days. At this stage, they were with varying shell lengths, 9.3 mm to 13,11 mm in respect to batches. The reproduction period varied from 1-67 days. An individual laid, on an average, 0,25 (March batch to 443.67 (May batch eggs in its life-span. A batch of such snails would leave 24312, 22520, 720268, 80408, 76067, 418165, 214, 9202, 0, 0, 2459386 and 127894 individuals at the end of 352nd day. Since the environmental conditions were almost similar the 'dynamic' of population dynamics seems to be involved with the 'strain' of the snail individuals of the batches concerned.

  20. Modeling structured population dynamics using data from unmarked individuals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Zipkin, Elise; Thorson, James T.; See, Kevin; Lynch, Heather J.; Kanno, Yoichiro; Chandler, Richard; Letcher, Benjamin H.; Royle, J. Andrew

    2014-01-01

    The study of population dynamics requires unbiased, precise estimates of abundance and vital rates that account for the demographic structure inherent in all wildlife and plant populations. Traditionally, these estimates have only been available through approaches that rely on intensive mark–recapture data. We extended recently developed N-mixture models to demonstrate how demographic parameters and abundance can be estimated for structured populations using only stage-structured count data. Our modeling framework can be used to make reliable inferences on abundance as well as recruitment, immigration, stage-specific survival, and detection rates during sampling. We present a range of simulations to illustrate the data requirements, including the number of years and locations necessary for accurate and precise parameter estimates. We apply our modeling framework to a population of northern dusky salamanders (Desmognathus fuscus) in the mid-Atlantic region (USA) and find that the population is unexpectedly declining. Our approach represents a valuable advance in the estimation of population dynamics using multistate data from unmarked individuals and should additionally be useful in the development of integrated models that combine data from intensive (e.g., mark–recapture) and extensive (e.g., counts) data sources.

  1. Current and Future Dynamics of the Red-Cockaded Woodpecker Population Inhabiting the Savannah River National Environmental Research Park: Managing For Population Growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walters, J.R.; Taylor, T.B.; Daniels, S.J.; Crowder, L.B.; Pridd, J.A.

    2001-01-01

    Research aimed to study the dynamics of the SRS population of Red-Cockaded woodpecker and compare to those of other populations to identify factors limiting population growth; recruitment clusters were evaluated to determine what properties of individual cavity trees, surrounding habitat and the surrounding landscape might limit occupancy through natural dispersal. A spatial simulation model was used to project expected dispersal rates and population growth under current conditions and compare those estimates to observed dispersal and population growth. Red cockaded woodpecker populations at SRS are stable considering size. Research reveals that closer placement of recruitment clusters to active territories would produce higher growth rates while decreasing management intensity

  2. Current and Future Dynamics of the Red-Cockaded Woodpecker Population Inhabiting the Savannah River National Environmental Research Park: Managing For Population Growth

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walters, J.R.; Taylor, T.B.; Daniels, S.J.; Crowder, L.B.; Pridd, J.A.

    2001-01-01

    Research aimed to study the dynamics of the SRS population of Red-Cockaded woodpecker and compare to those of other populations to identify factors limiting population growth; recruitment clusters were evaluated to determine what properties of individual cavity trees, surrounding habitat and the surrounding landscape might limit occupancy through natural dispersal. A spatial simulation model was used to project expected dispersal rates and population growth under current conditions and compare those estimates to observed dispersal and population growth. Red cockaded woodpecker populations at SRS are stable considering size. Research reveals that closer placement of recruitment clusters to active territories would produce higher growth rates while decreasing management intensity.

  3. A Theoretical Approach to Understanding Population Dynamics with Seasonal Developmental Durations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lou, Yijun; Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

    2017-04-01

    There is a growing body of biological investigations to understand impacts of seasonally changing environmental conditions on population dynamics in various research fields such as single population growth and disease transmission. On the other side, understanding the population dynamics subject to seasonally changing weather conditions plays a fundamental role in predicting the trends of population patterns and disease transmission risks under the scenarios of climate change. With the host-macroparasite interaction as a motivating example, we propose a synthesized approach for investigating the population dynamics subject to seasonal environmental variations from theoretical point of view, where the model development, basic reproduction ratio formulation and computation, and rigorous mathematical analysis are involved. The resultant model with periodic delay presents a novel term related to the rate of change of the developmental duration, bringing new challenges to dynamics analysis. By investigating a periodic semiflow on a suitably chosen phase space, the global dynamics of a threshold type is established: all solutions either go to zero when basic reproduction ratio is less than one, or stabilize at a positive periodic state when the reproduction ratio is greater than one. The synthesized approach developed here is applicable to broader contexts of investigating biological systems with seasonal developmental durations.

  4. A stochastic population model to evaluate Moapa dace (Moapa coriacea) population growth under alternative management scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Russell W.; Jones, Edward; Scoppettone, G. Gary

    2015-07-14

    The primary goal of this research project was to evaluate the response of Moapa dace (Moapa coriacea) to the potential effects of changes in the amount of available habitat due to human influences such as ground water pumping, barriers to movement, and extirpation of Moapa dace from the mainstem Muddy River. To understand how these factors affect Moapa dace populations and to provide a tool to guide recovery actions, we developed a stochastic model to simulate Moapa dace population dynamics. Specifically, we developed an individual based model (IBM) to incorporate the critical components that drive Moapa dace population dynamics. Our model is composed of several interlinked submodels that describe changes in Moapa dace habitat as translated into carrying capacity, the influence of carrying capacity on demographic rates of dace, and the consequent effect on equilibrium population sizes. The model is spatially explicit and represents the stream network as eight discrete stream segments. The model operates at a monthly time step to incorporate seasonally varying reproduction. Growth rates of individuals vary among stream segments, with growth rates increasing along a headwater to mainstem gradient. Movement and survival of individuals are driven by density-dependent relationships that are influenced by the carrying capacity of each stream segment.

  5. Efficient characterisation of large deviations using population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brewer, Tobias; Clark, Stephen R.; Bradford, Russell; Jack, Robert L.

    2018-05-01

    We consider population dynamics as implemented by the cloning algorithm for analysis of large deviations of time-averaged quantities. We use the simple symmetric exclusion process with periodic boundary conditions as a prototypical example and investigate the convergence of the results with respect to the algorithmic parameters, focussing on the dynamical phase transition between homogeneous and inhomogeneous states, where convergence is relatively difficult to achieve. We discuss how the performance of the algorithm can be optimised, and how it can be efficiently exploited on parallel computing platforms.

  6. Changes in Population Dynamics in Mutualistic versus Pathogenic Viruses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marilyn J. Roossinck

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Although generally regarded as pathogens, viruses can also be mutualists. A number of examples of extreme mutualism (i.e., symbiogenesis have been well studied. Other examples of mutualism are less common, but this is likely because viruses have rarely been thought of as having any beneficial effects on their hosts. The effect of mutualism on the population dynamics of viruses is a topic that has not been addressed experimentally. However, the potential for understanding mutualism and how a virus might become a mutualist may be elucidated by understanding these dynamics.

  7. Numerical solution of dynamic equilibrium models under Poisson uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Posch, Olaf; Trimborn, Timo

    2013-01-01

    We propose a simple and powerful numerical algorithm to compute the transition process in continuous-time dynamic equilibrium models with rare events. In this paper we transform the dynamic system of stochastic differential equations into a system of functional differential equations of the retar...... solution to Lucas' endogenous growth model under Poisson uncertainty are used to compute the exact numerical error. We show how (potential) catastrophic events such as rare natural disasters substantially affect the economic decisions of households....

  8. Nonlinear dynamics of trions under strong optical excitation in monolayer MoSe2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Jialiang; Yan, Tengfei; Niu, Binghui; Li, Ying; Zhang, Xinhui

    2018-02-05

    By employing ultrafast transient reflection measurements based on two-color pump-probe spectroscopy, the population and valley polarization dynamics of trions in monolayer MoSe 2 were investigated at relatively high excitation densities under near-resonant excitation. Both the nonlinear dynamic photobleaching of the trion resonance and the redshift of the exciton resonance were found to be responsible for the excitation-energy- and density-dependent transient reflection change as a result of many-body interactions. Furthermore, from the polarization-resolved measurements, it was revealed that the initial fast population and polarization decay process upon strong photoexcitation observed for trions was determined by trion formation, transient phase-space filling and the short valley lifetime of excitons. The results provide a basic understanding of the nonlinear dynamics of population and valley depolarization of trions, as well as exciton-trion correlation in atomically thin MoSe 2 and other transition metal dichalcogenide materials.

  9. Phenotypic equilibrium as probabilistic convergence in multi-phenotype cell population dynamics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Da-Quan Jiang

    Full Text Available We consider the cell population dynamics with n different phenotypes. Both the Markovian branching process model (stochastic model and the ordinary differential equation (ODE system model (deterministic model are presented, and exploited to investigate the dynamics of the phenotypic proportions. We will prove that in both models, these proportions will tend to constants regardless of initial population states ("phenotypic equilibrium" under weak conditions, which explains the experimental phenomenon in Gupta et al.'s paper. We also prove that Gupta et al.'s explanation is the ODE model under a special assumption. As an application, we will give sufficient and necessary conditions under which the proportion of one phenotype tends to 0 (die out or 1 (dominate. We also extend our results to non-Markovian cases.

  10. Dynamics of a population of oscillatory and excitable elements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Keeffe, Kevin P; Strogatz, Steven H

    2016-06-01

    We analyze a variant of a model proposed by Kuramoto, Shinomoto, and Sakaguchi for a large population of coupled oscillatory and excitable elements. Using the Ott-Antonsen ansatz, we reduce the behavior of the population to a two-dimensional dynamical system with three parameters. We present the stability diagram and calculate several of its bifurcation curves analytically, for both excitatory and inhibitory coupling. Our main result is that when the coupling function is broad, the system can display bistability between steady states of constant high and low activity, whereas when the coupling function is narrow and inhibitory, one of the states in the bistable regime can show persistent pulsations in activity.

  11. Structured population dynamics: continuous size and discontinuous stage structures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buffoni, Giuseppe; Pasquali, Sara

    2007-04-01

    A nonlinear stochastic model for the dynamics of a population with either a continuous size structure or a discontinuous stage structure is formulated in the Eulerian formalism. It takes into account dispersion effects due to stochastic variability of the development process of the individuals. The discrete equations of the numerical approximation are derived, and an analysis of the existence and stability of the equilibrium states is performed. An application to a copepod population is illustrated; numerical results of Eulerian and Lagrangian models are compared.

  12. Forest management under uncertainty for multiple bird population objectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, C.T.; Plummer, W.T.; Conroy, M.J.; Ralph, C. John; Rich, Terrell D.

    2005-01-01

    We advocate adaptive programs of decision making and monitoring for the management of forest birds when responses by populations to management, and particularly management trade-offs among populations, are uncertain. Models are necessary components of adaptive management. Under this approach, uncertainty about the behavior of a managed system is explicitly captured in a set of alternative models. The models generate testable predictions about the response of populations to management, and monitoring data provide the basis for assessing these predictions and informing future management decisions. To illustrate these principles, we examine forest management at the Piedmont National Wildlife Refuge, where management attention is focused on the recovery of the Red-cockaded Woodpecker (Picoides borealis) population. However, managers are also sensitive to the habitat needs of many non-target organisms, including Wood Thrushes (Hylocichla mustelina) and other forest interior Neotropical migratory birds. By simulating several management policies on a set of-alternative forest and bird models, we found a decision policy that maximized a composite response by woodpeckers and Wood Thrushes despite our complete uncertainty regarding system behavior. Furthermore, we used monitoring data to update our measure of belief in each alternative model following one cycle of forest management. This reduction of uncertainty translates into a reallocation of model influence on the choice of optimal decision action at the next decision opportunity.

  13. Biology as population dynamics: heuristics for transmission risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keebler, Daniel; Walwyn, David; Welte, Alex

    2013-02-01

    Population-type models, accounting for phenomena such as population lifetimes, mixing patterns, recruitment patterns, genetic evolution and environmental conditions, can be usefully applied to the biology of HIV infection and viral replication. A simple dynamic model can explore the effect of a vaccine-like stimulus on the mortality and infectiousness, which formally looks like fertility, of invading virions; the mortality of freshly infected cells; and the availability of target cells, all of which impact on the probability of infection. Variations on this model could capture the importance of the timing and duration of different key events in viral transmission, and hence be applied to questions of mucosal immunology. The dynamical insights and assumptions of such models are compatible with the continuum of between- and within-individual risks in sexual violence and may be helpful in making sense of the sparse data available on the association between HIV transmission and sexual violence. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

  14. Effect of temperature on the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yusoff, Nuraini; Tokachil, Mohd Najir

    2015-10-01

    Aedes aegypti is one of the main vectors in the transmission of dengue fever. Its abundance may cause the spread of the disease to be more intense. In the study of its biological life cycle, temperature was found to increase the development rate of each stage of this species and thus, accelerate the process of the development from egg to adult. In this paper, a Lefkovitch matrix model will be used to study the stage-structured population dynamics of Aedes aegypti. In constructing the transition matrix, temperature will be taken into account. As a case study, temperature recorded at the Subang Meteorological Station for year 2006 until 2010 will be used. Population dynamics of Aedes aegypti at maximum, average and minimum temperature for each year will be simulated and compared. It is expected that the higher the temperature, the faster the mosquito will breed. The result will be compared to the number of dengue fever incidences to see their relationship.

  15. Interacting trophic forcing and the population dynamics of herring

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindegren, Martin; Ostman, Orjan; Gardmark, Anna

    2011-01-01

    -up nor top-down, but rather through multiple external and internal drivers. While in many studies single drivers have been identified, potential synergies of multiple factors, as well as their relative importance in regulating population dynamics of small pelagic fish, is a largely unresolved issue....... Using a statistical, age-structured modeling approach, we demonstrate the relative importance and influence of bottom-up (e.g., climate, zooplankton availability) and top-down (i.e., fishing and predation) factors on the population dynamics of Bothnian Sea herring (Clupea harengus) throughout its life...... cycle. Our results indicate significant bottom-up effects of zooplankton and interspecific competition from sprat (Sprattus sprattus), particularly on younger age classes of herring. Although top-down forcing through fishing and predation by grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) and Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua...

  16. Integrating population dynamics into mapping human exposure to seismic hazard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Freire

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Disaster risk is not fully characterized without taking into account vulnerability and population exposure. Assessment of earthquake risk in urban areas would benefit from considering the variation of population distribution at more detailed spatial and temporal scales, and from a more explicit integration of this improved demographic data with existing seismic hazard maps. In the present work, "intelligent" dasymetric mapping is used to model population dynamics at high spatial resolution in order to benefit the analysis of spatio-temporal exposure to earthquake hazard in a metropolitan area. These night- and daytime-specific population densities are then classified and combined with seismic intensity levels to derive new spatially-explicit four-class-composite maps of human exposure. The presented approach enables a more thorough assessment of population exposure to earthquake hazard. Results show that there are significantly more people potentially at risk in the daytime period, demonstrating the shifting nature of population exposure in the daily cycle and the need to move beyond conventional residence-based demographic data sources to improve risk analyses. The proposed fine-scale maps of human exposure to seismic intensity are mainly aimed at benefiting visualization and communication of earthquake risk, but can be valuable in all phases of the disaster management process where knowledge of population densities is relevant for decision-making.

  17. Demography of the Early Neolithic Population in Central Balkans: Population Dynamics Reconstruction Using Summed Radiocarbon Probability Distributions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marko Porčić

    Full Text Available The Central Balkans region is of great importance for understanding the spread of the Neolithic in Europe but the Early Neolithic population dynamics of the region is unknown. In this study we apply the method of summed calibrated probability distributions to a set of published radiocarbon dates from the Republic of Serbia in order to reconstruct population dynamics in the Early Neolithic in this part of the Central Balkans. The results indicate that there was a significant population growth after ~6200 calBC, when the Neolithic was introduced into the region, followed by a bust at the end of the Early Neolithic phase (~5400 calBC. These results are broadly consistent with the predictions of the Neolithic Demographic Transition theory and the patterns of population booms and busts detected in other regions of Europe. These results suggest that the cultural process that underlies the patterns observed in Central and Western Europe was also in operation in the Central Balkan Neolithic and that the population increase component of this process can be considered as an important factor for the spread of the Neolithic as envisioned in the demic diffusion hypothesis.

  18. [Population dynamics of oligosporous actinomycetes in Chernozem soil].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zenova, G M; Mikhaĭlova, N V; Zviagintsev, D G

    2000-01-01

    Investigation of the dynamics of an oligosporous actinomycete population in chernozem soil in the course of succession induced by soil wetting allowed us to reveal the time intervals and conditions optimal for the isolation of particular oligosporous actinomycetes. Saccharopolysporas and microbisporas proved to be best isolated in the early and late stages of succession, whereas actinomycetes of the subgroup Actinomadura and saccharomonosporas could be best isolated in the early and intermediate stages of succession.

  19. Scaling up population dynamic processes in a ladybird–aphid

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Houdková, Kateřina; Kindlmann, Pavel

    2006-01-01

    Roč. 48, - (2006), s. 323-332 ISSN 1438-3896 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GEDIV/06/E013; GA MŠk(CZ) LC06073; GA AV ČR(CZ) IAA6087301; GA ČR(CZ) GD206/03/H034 Keywords : Aphids * Egg window * Ladybirds * Metapopulation * Model * Population dynamics Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 1.534, year: 2006

  20. Learning to Estimate Dynamical State with Probabilistic Population Codes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph G Makin

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Tracking moving objects, including one's own body, is a fundamental ability of higher organisms, playing a central role in many perceptual and motor tasks. While it is unknown how the brain learns to follow and predict the dynamics of objects, it is known that this process of state estimation can be learned purely from the statistics of noisy observations. When the dynamics are simply linear with additive Gaussian noise, the optimal solution is the well known Kalman filter (KF, the parameters of which can be learned via latent-variable density estimation (the EM algorithm. The brain does not, however, directly manipulate matrices and vectors, but instead appears to represent probability distributions with the firing rates of population of neurons, "probabilistic population codes." We show that a recurrent neural network-a modified form of an exponential family harmonium (EFH-that takes a linear probabilistic population code as input can learn, without supervision, to estimate the state of a linear dynamical system. After observing a series of population responses (spike counts to the position of a moving object, the network learns to represent the velocity of the object and forms nearly optimal predictions about the position at the next time-step. This result builds on our previous work showing that a similar network can learn to perform multisensory integration and coordinate transformations for static stimuli. The receptive fields of the trained network also make qualitative predictions about the developing and learning brain: tuning gradually emerges for higher-order dynamical states not explicitly present in the inputs, appearing as delayed tuning for the lower-order states.

  1. Building the bridge between animal movement and population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morales, Juan M; Moorcroft, Paul R; Matthiopoulos, Jason; Frair, Jacqueline L; Kie, John G; Powell, Roger A; Merrill, Evelyn H; Haydon, Daniel T

    2010-07-27

    While the mechanistic links between animal movement and population dynamics are ecologically obvious, it is much less clear when knowledge of animal movement is a prerequisite for understanding and predicting population dynamics. GPS and other technologies enable detailed tracking of animal location concurrently with acquisition of landscape data and information on individual physiology. These tools can be used to refine our understanding of the mechanistic links between behaviour and individual condition through 'spatially informed' movement models where time allocation to different behaviours affects individual survival and reproduction. For some species, socially informed models that address the movements and average fitness of differently sized groups and how they are affected by fission-fusion processes at relevant temporal scales are required. Furthermore, as most animals revisit some places and avoid others based on their previous experiences, we foresee the incorporation of long-term memory and intention in movement models. The way animals move has important consequences for the degree of mixing that we expect to find both within a population and between individuals of different species. The mixing rate dictates the level of detail required by models to capture the influence of heterogeneity and the dynamics of intra- and interspecific interaction.

  2. A mechanistic analysis of density dependence in algal population dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrian eBorlestean

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Population density regulation is a fundamental principle in ecology, but the specific process underlying functional expression of density dependence remains to be fully elucidated. One view contends that patterns of density dependence are largely fixed across a species irrespective of environmental conditions, whereas another is that the strength and expression of density dependence are fundamentally variable depending on the nature of exogenous or endogenous constraints acting on the population. We conducted a study investigating the expression of density dependence in Chlamydomonas spp. grown under a gradient from low to high nutrient density. We predicted that the relationship between per capita growth rate (pgr and population density would vary from concave up to concave down as nutrient density became less limiting and populations experienced weaker density regulation. Contrary to prediction, we found that the relationship between pgr and density became increasingly concave-up as nutrient levels increased. We also found that variation in pgr increased, and pgr levels reached higher maxima in nutrient-limited environments. Most likely, these results are attributable to population growth suppression in environments with high intraspecific competition due to limited nutrient resources. Our results suggest that density regulation is strongly variable depending on exogenous and endogenous processes acting on the population, implying that expression of density dependence depends extensively on local conditions. Additional experimental work should reveal the mechanisms influencing how the expression of density dependence varies across populations through space and time.

  3. Border Collision Bifurcations in a Generalized Model of Population Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lilia M. Ladino

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available We analyze the dynamics of a generalized discrete time population model of a two-stage species with recruitment and capture. This generalization, which is inspired by other approaches and real data that one can find in literature, consists in considering no restriction for the value of the two key parameters appearing in the model, that is, the natural death rate and the mortality rate due to fishing activity. In the more general case the feasibility of the system has been preserved by posing opportune formulas for the piecewise map defining the model. The resulting two-dimensional nonlinear map is not smooth, though continuous, as its definition changes as any border is crossed in the phase plane. Hence, techniques from the mathematical theory of piecewise smooth dynamical systems must be applied to show that, due to the existence of borders, abrupt changes in the dynamic behavior of population sizes and multistability emerge. The main novelty of the present contribution with respect to the previous ones is that, while using real data, richer dynamics are produced, such as fluctuations and multistability. Such new evidences are of great interest in biology since new strategies to preserve the survival of the species can be suggested.

  4. Impact of environmental colored noise in single-species population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spanio, Tommaso; Hidalgo, Jorge; Muñoz, Miguel A.

    2017-10-01

    Variability on external conditions has important consequences for the dynamics and the organization of biological systems. In many cases, the characteristic timescale of environmental changes as well as their correlations play a fundamental role in the way living systems adapt and respond to it. A proper mathematical approach to understand population dynamics, thus, requires approaches more refined than, e.g., simple white-noise approximations. To shed further light onto this problem, in this paper we propose a unifying framework based on different analytical and numerical tools available to deal with "colored" environmental noise. In particular, we employ a "unified colored noise approximation" to map the original problem into an effective one with white noise, and then we apply a standard path integral approach to gain analytical understanding. For the sake of specificity, we present our approach using as a guideline a variation of the contact process—which can also be seen as a birth-death process of the Malthus-Verhulst class—where the propagation or birth rate varies stochastically in time. Our approach allows us to tackle in a systematic manner some of the relevant questions concerning population dynamics under environmental variability, such as determining the stationary population density, establishing the conditions under which a population may become extinct, and estimating extinction times. We focus on the emerging phase diagram and its possible phase transitions, underlying how these are affected by the presence of environmental noise time-correlations.

  5. Homogenization techniques for population dynamics in strongly heterogeneous landscapes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yurk, Brian P; Cobbold, Christina A

    2018-12-01

    An important problem in spatial ecology is to understand how population-scale patterns emerge from individual-level birth, death, and movement processes. These processes, which depend on local landscape characteristics, vary spatially and may exhibit sharp transitions through behavioural responses to habitat edges, leading to discontinuous population densities. Such systems can be modelled using reaction-diffusion equations with interface conditions that capture local behaviour at patch boundaries. In this work we develop a novel homogenization technique to approximate the large-scale dynamics of the system. We illustrate our approach, which also generalizes to multiple species, with an example of logistic growth within a periodic environment. We find that population persistence and the large-scale population carrying capacity is influenced by patch residence times that depend on patch preference, as well as movement rates in adjacent patches. The forms of the homogenized coefficients yield key theoretical insights into how large-scale dynamics arise from the small-scale features.

  6. Drivers of waterfowl population dynamics: from teal to swans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koons, David N.; Gunnarsson, Gunnar; Schmutz, Joel A.; Rotella, Jay J.

    2014-01-01

    Waterfowl are among the best studied and most extensively monitored species in the world. Given their global importance for sport and subsistence hunting, viewing and ecosystem functioning, great effort has been devoted since the middle part of the 20th century to understanding both the environmental and demographic mechanisms that influence waterfowl population and community dynamics. Here we use comparative approaches to summarise and contrast our understanding ofwaterfowl population dynamics across species as short-lived as the teal Anas discors and A.crecca to those such as the swans Cygnus sp. which have long life-spans. Specifically, we focus on population responses to vital rate perturbations across life history strategies, discuss bottom-up and top-down responses of waterfowlpopulations to global change, and summarise our current understanding of density dependence across waterfowl species. We close by identifying research needs and highlight ways to overcome the challenges of sustainably managing waterfowl populations in the 21st century.

  7. On the population dynamics of the malaria vector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ngwa, G.A.

    2005-10-01

    A deterministic differential equation model for the population dynamics of the human malaria vector is derived and studied. Conditions for the existence and stability of a non-zero steady state vector population density are derived. These reveal that a threshold parameter, the vectorial basic reproduction number, exist and the vector can establish itself in the community if and only if this parameter exceeds unity. When a non-zero steady state population density exists, it can be stable but it can also be driven to instability via a Hopf Bifurcation to periodic solutions, as a parameter is varied in parameter space. By considering a special case, an asymptotic perturbation analysis is used to derive the amplitude of the oscillating solutions for the full non-linear system. The present modelling exercise and results show that it is possible to study the population dynamics of disease vectors, and hence oscillatory behaviour as it is often observed in most indirectly transmitted infectious diseases of humans, without recourse to external seasonal forcing. (author)

  8. Linking animal population dynamics to alterations in foraging behaviour

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nabe-Nielsen, Jacob; Sibly, Richard; Tougaard, Jakob

    Background/Question/Methods The survival of animal populations is strongly influenced by the individuals’ ability to forage efficiently, yet there are few studies of how populations respond when disturbances cause animals to deviate from their natural foraging behavior. Animals that respond...... that are increasingly exposed to noise from ships, wind turbines, etc. In the present study we investigate how the dynamics of the harbor porpoise population (Phocoena phocoena) in the inner Danish waters is influenced by disturbances using an agent- based simulation model. In the model animal movement, and hence...... the animals’ ability to forage efficiently and to sustain their energy intake, is influenced by noise emitted from wind turbines and ships. The energy levels in turn affect their survival. The fine-scale movements of the simulated animals was governed by a spatial memory, which allowed the model to produce...

  9. Studies on population dynamic of diamondback moth in the field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malakrong, A.; Limohpasmanee, W.; Keawchoung, P.; Kodcharint, P.

    1994-01-01

    The population dynamic of diamondback moth larva in the field was studied at Khao Khor High-land Agricultural Research Station during August-October 1993 and February-April 1994. The distribution patterns of diamondback moth larva was clumped when population was low and would change to be random when population was high. The maximun and minimum number of diamondback moth in the field were 71,203 and 2,732 larva/rai during March and September. Temperature, rainfall and age of cabbage were slightly relative with number of larva (r=-0.2891, p=0.30; r=-0.2816, p=0.31 and r=0.2931, p=0.29 respectively) but relative humidity has no effect on number of larva

  10. Dynamic interactions between hydrogeological and exposure parameters in daily dose prediction under uncertainty and temporal variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kumar, Vikas, E-mail: vikas.kumar@urv.cat [Department of Chemical Engineering, Rovira i Virgili University, Tarragona 43007 (Spain); Barros, Felipe P.J. de [Sonny Astani Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Southern California, Los Angeles 90089, CA (United States); Schuhmacher, Marta [Department of Chemical Engineering, Rovira i Virgili University, Tarragona 43007 (Spain); Fernàndez-Garcia, Daniel; Sanchez-Vila, Xavier [Hydrogeology Group, Department of Geotechnical Engineering and Geosciences, University Politècnica de Catalunya-BarcelonaTech, Barcelona 08034 (Spain)

    2013-12-15

    Highlights: • Dynamic parametric interaction in daily dose prediction under uncertainty. • Importance of temporal dynamics associated with the dose. • Different dose experienced by different population cohorts as a function of time. • Relevance of uncertainty reduction in the input parameters shows temporal dynamism. -- Abstract: We study the time dependent interaction between hydrogeological and exposure parameters in daily dose predictions due to exposure of humans to groundwater contamination. Dose predictions are treated stochastically to account for an incomplete hydrogeological and geochemical field characterization, and an incomplete knowledge of the physiological response. We used a nested Monte Carlo framework to account for uncertainty and variability arising from both hydrogeological and exposure variables. Our interest is in the temporal dynamics of the total dose and their effects on parametric uncertainty reduction. We illustrate the approach to a HCH (lindane) pollution problem at the Ebro River, Spain. The temporal distribution of lindane in the river water can have a strong impact in the evaluation of risk. The total dose displays a non-linear effect on different population cohorts, indicating the need to account for population variability. We then expand the concept of Comparative Information Yield Curves developed earlier (see de Barros et al. [29]) to evaluate parametric uncertainty reduction under temporally variable exposure dose. Results show that the importance of parametric uncertainty reduction varies according to the temporal dynamics of the lindane plume. The approach could be used for any chemical to aid decision makers to better allocate resources towards reducing uncertainty.

  11. Wideband impedance measurements of DC motors under dynamic load conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Diouf, F.; Buesink, Frederik Johannes Karel; Leferink, Frank Bernardus Johannes; Duval, Fabrice; Bensetti, Mohamed

    2013-01-01

    One of the principal conducted EMI(electromagnetic interferences) sources of low voltage DC (direct current) motors is the commutation occurring during rotation. In this paper the small-signal impedance of low voltage DC motors under different functioning modes, including the dynamic one is studied

  12. Dynamic Processes in Nanostructured Crystals Under Ion Irradiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uglov, V. V.; Kvasov, N. T.; Shimanski, V. I.; Safronov, I. V.; Komarov, N. D.

    2018-02-01

    The paper presents detailed investigations of dynamic processes occurring in nanostructured Si(Fe) material under the radiation exposure, namely: heating, thermoelastic stress generation, elastic disturbances of the surrounding medium similar to weak shock waves, and dislocation generation. The performance calculations are proposed for elastic properties of the nanostructured material with a glance to size effects in nanoparticles.

  13. Population Dynamics of Early Human Migration in Britain.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mayank N Vahia

    Full Text Available Early human migration is largely determined by geography and human needs. These are both deterministic parameters when small populations move into unoccupied areas where conflicts and large group dynamics are not important. The early period of human migration into the British Isles provides such a laboratory which, because of its relative geographical isolation, may allow some insights into the complex dynamics of early human migration and interaction.We developed a simulation code based on human affinity to habitable land, as defined by availability of water sources, altitude, and flatness of land, in choosing the path of migration. Movement of people on the British island over the prehistoric period from their initial entry points was simulated on the basis of data from the megalithic period. Topographical and hydro-shed data from satellite databases was used to define habitability, based on distance from water bodies, flatness of the terrain, and altitude above sea level. We simulated population movement based on assumptions of affinity for more habitable places, with the rate of movement tempered by existing populations. We compared results of our computer simulations with genetic data and show that our simulation can predict fairly accurately the points of contacts between different migratory paths. Such comparison also provides more detailed information about the path of peoples' movement over ~2000 years before the present era.We demonstrate an accurate method to simulate prehistoric movements of people based upon current topographical satellite data. Our findings are validated by recently-available genetic data. Our method may prove useful in determining early human population dynamics even when no genetic information is available.

  14. Environmental influence on population dynamics of the bivalve Anomalocardia brasiliana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corte, Guilherme Nascimento; Coleman, Ross A.; Amaral, A. Cecília Z.

    2017-03-01

    Understanding how species respond to the environment in terms of population attributes (e.g. abundance, growth, mortality, fecundity, and productivity) is essential to protect ecologically and economically important species. Nevertheless, responses of macrobenthic populations to environmental features are overlooked due to the need of consecutive samplings and time-consuming measurements. We examined the population dynamics of the filter-feeding bivalve Anomalocardia brasiliana on a tidal flat over the course of one year to investigate the hypothesis that, as accepted for macrobenthic communities, populations inhabiting environments with low hydrodynamic conditions such as tidal flat should have higher attributes than populations inhabiting more energetic habitats (i.e. areas more influenced by wave energy such as reflective and intermediate beaches). This would be expected because the harsh conditions of more energetic habitats force organisms to divert more energy towards maintenance, resulting in lower population attributes. We found that A. brasiliana showed moderate growth and secondary production at the study area. Moreover the recruitment period was restricted to a few months. A comparison with previous studies showed that, contrary to expected, A. brasiliana populations from areas with low hydrodynamic conditions have lower abundance, growth, recruitment and turnover rate. It is likely that morphodynamic characteristics recorded in these environments, such as larger periods of air exposure and lower water circulation, may affect food conditions for filter-feeding species and increase competition. In addition, these characteristics may negatively affect macrobenthic species by enhancing eutrophication processes and anoxia. Overall, our results suggest that models accepted and applied at the macrobenthic community level might not be directly extended to A. brasiliana populations.

  15. Maintenance of algal endosymbionts in Paramecium bursaria: a simple model based on population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iwai, Sosuke; Fujiwara, Kenji; Tamura, Takuro

    2016-09-01

    Algal endosymbiosis is widely distributed in eukaryotes including many protists and metazoans, and plays important roles in aquatic ecosystems, combining phagotrophy and phototrophy. To maintain a stable symbiotic relationship, endosymbiont population size in the host must be properly regulated and maintained at a constant level; however, the mechanisms underlying the maintenance of algal endosymbionts are still largely unknown. Here we investigate the population dynamics of the unicellular ciliate Paramecium bursaria and its Chlorella-like algal endosymbiont under various experimental conditions in a simple culture system. Our results suggest that endosymbiont population size in P. bursaria was not regulated by active processes such as cell division coupling between the two organisms, or partitioning of the endosymbionts at host cell division. Regardless, endosymbiont population size was eventually adjusted to a nearly constant level once cells were grown with light and nutrients. To explain this apparent regulation of population size, we propose a simple mechanism based on the different growth properties (specifically the nutrient requirements) of the two organisms, and based from this develop a mathematical model to describe the population dynamics of host and endosymbiont. The proposed mechanism and model may provide a basis for understanding the maintenance of algal endosymbionts. © 2015 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Population and phase dynamics of F=1 spinor condensates in an external magnetic field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Romano, D.R.; Passos, E.J.V. de

    2004-01-01

    We show that the classical dynamics underlying the mean-field description of homogeneous mixtures of spinor F=1 Bose-Einstein condensates in an external magnetic field is integrable as a consequence of number conservation and axial symmetry in spin space. The population dynamics depends only on the quadratic term of the Zeeman energy and on the strength of the spin-dependent term of the atom-atom interaction. We determine the equilibrium populations as function of the ratio of these two quantities and the miscibility of the hyperfine components in the ground state spinors are thoroughly discussed. Outside the equilibrium, the populations are always a periodic function of time where the periodic motion can be a libration or a rotation. Our studies also indicate the absence of metastability

  17. Alternating event processes during lifetimes: population dynamics and statistical inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shinohara, Russell T; Sun, Yifei; Wang, Mei-Cheng

    2018-01-01

    In the literature studying recurrent event data, a large amount of work has been focused on univariate recurrent event processes where the occurrence of each event is treated as a single point in time. There are many applications, however, in which univariate recurrent events are insufficient to characterize the feature of the process because patients experience nontrivial durations associated with each event. This results in an alternating event process where the disease status of a patient alternates between exacerbations and remissions. In this paper, we consider the dynamics of a chronic disease and its associated exacerbation-remission process over two time scales: calendar time and time-since-onset. In particular, over calendar time, we explore population dynamics and the relationship between incidence, prevalence and duration for such alternating event processes. We provide nonparametric estimation techniques for characteristic quantities of the process. In some settings, exacerbation processes are observed from an onset time until death; to account for the relationship between the survival and alternating event processes, nonparametric approaches are developed for estimating exacerbation process over lifetime. By understanding the population dynamics and within-process structure, the paper provide a new and general way to study alternating event processes.

  18. Stochastic population dynamics in spatially extended predator-prey systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobramysl, Ulrich; Mobilia, Mauro; Pleimling, Michel; Täuber, Uwe C.

    2018-02-01

    Spatially extended population dynamics models that incorporate demographic noise serve as case studies for the crucial role of fluctuations and correlations in biological systems. Numerical and analytic tools from non-equilibrium statistical physics capture the stochastic kinetics of these complex interacting many-particle systems beyond rate equation approximations. Including spatial structure and stochastic noise in models for predator-prey competition invalidates the neutral Lotka-Volterra population cycles. Stochastic models yield long-lived erratic oscillations stemming from a resonant amplification mechanism. Spatially extended predator-prey systems display noise-stabilized activity fronts that generate persistent correlations. Fluctuation-induced renormalizations of the oscillation parameters can be analyzed perturbatively via a Doi-Peliti field theory mapping of the master equation; related tools allow detailed characterization of extinction pathways. The critical steady-state and non-equilibrium relaxation dynamics at the predator extinction threshold are governed by the directed percolation universality class. Spatial predation rate variability results in more localized clusters, enhancing both competing species’ population densities. Affixing variable interaction rates to individual particles and allowing for trait inheritance subject to mutations induces fast evolutionary dynamics for the rate distributions. Stochastic spatial variants of three-species competition with ‘rock-paper-scissors’ interactions metaphorically describe cyclic dominance. These models illustrate intimate connections between population dynamics and evolutionary game theory, underscore the role of fluctuations to drive populations toward extinction, and demonstrate how space can support species diversity. Two-dimensional cyclic three-species May-Leonard models are characterized by the emergence of spiraling patterns whose properties are elucidated by a mapping onto a complex

  19. Efficient logistic regression designs under an imperfect population identifier.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albert, Paul S; Liu, Aiyi; Nansel, Tonja

    2014-03-01

    Motivated by actual study designs, this article considers efficient logistic regression designs where the population is identified with a binary test that is subject to diagnostic error. We consider the case where the imperfect test is obtained on all participants, while the gold standard test is measured on a small chosen subsample. Under maximum-likelihood estimation, we evaluate the optimal design in terms of sample selection as well as verification. We show that there may be substantial efficiency gains by choosing a small percentage of individuals who test negative on the imperfect test for inclusion in the sample (e.g., verifying 90% test-positive cases). We also show that a two-stage design may be a good practical alternative to a fixed design in some situations. Under optimal and nearly optimal designs, we compare maximum-likelihood and semi-parametric efficient estimators under correct and misspecified models with simulations. The methodology is illustrated with an analysis from a diabetes behavioral intervention trial. © 2013, The International Biometric Society.

  20. Population Dynamics of the Mediterranean Fruit Fly in Montenegro

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanja Radonjić

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Population dynamics of the Mediterranean fruit fly was studied along Montenegro seacoast. Tephri traps baited with 3 component female-biased attractants were used in 11 different localities to monitor the fruit fly population in commercial citrus orchards, mixed-fruit orchards, and in backyards. From 2008–2010, the earliest captures were recorded no earlier than July. In 2011, the first adult fly was detected in mid-June. Low captures rates were recorded in July and August (below 0.5 flies per trap per day; FTD and peaked from mid-September to the end of October of each year. Our results indicate fluctuation of fly per trap per day depending on dates of inspection and locality, with significant differences in the adult population density. A maximum population was always reached in the area of Budva-Herceg Novi with an FTD of 66.5, 89.5, 71.63, and 24.64 (from 2008–2011 respectively. Fly activity lasts from mid-June/early-July to end December, with distinct seasonal variation in the population.

  1. Genetic and environmental control of seasonal carbohydrate dynamics in trees of diverse Pinus sylvestris populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oleksyn, J.; Zytkowiak, R.; Karolewski, P.; Reich, P. B.; Tjoelker, M. G.

    2000-06-01

    We explored environmental and genetic factors affecting seasonal dynamics of starch and soluble nonstructural carbohydrates in needle and twig cohorts and roots of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) trees of six populations originating between 49 degrees and 60 degrees N, and grown under common garden conditions in western Poland. Trees of each population were sampled once or twice per month over a 3-year period from age 15 to 17 years. Based on similarity in starch concentration patterns in needles, two distinct groups of populations were identified; one comprised northern populations from Sweden and Russia (59-60 degrees N), and another comprised central European populations from Latvia, Poland, Germany and France (49-56 degrees N). Needle starch concentrations of northern populations started to decline in late spring and reached minimum values earlier than those of central populations. For all populations, starch accumulation in spring started when minimum air temperature permanently exceeded 0 degrees C. Starch accumulation peaked before bud break and was highest in 1-year-old needles, averaging 9-13% of dry mass. Soluble carbohydrate concentrations were lowest in spring and summer and highest in autumn and winter. There were no differences among populations in seasonal pattern of soluble carbohydrate concentrations. Averaged across all populations, needle soluble carbohydrate concentrations increased from about 4% of needle dry mass in developing current-year needles, to about 9% in 1- and 2-year-old needles. Root carbohydrate concentration exhibited a bimodal pattern with peaks in spring and autumn. Northern populations had higher concentrations of fine-root starch in spring and autumn than central populations. Late-summer carbohydrate accumulation in roots started only after depletion of starch in needles and woody shoots. We conclude that Scots pine carbohydrate dynamics depend partially on inherited properties that are probably related to phenology of root

  2. Population dynamics of Ascaris suum in trickle-infected pigs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nejsum, Peter; Thamsborg, Stig M; Petersen, Heidi H; Kringel, Helene; Fredholm, Merete; Roepstorff, Allan

    2009-10-01

    The population dynamics of Ascaris suum was studied by long-term exposure of pigs to infective eggs. The pigs were experimentally inoculated with 25 A. suum eggs/kg/day, and 7, 8, and 8 pigs were necropsied at weeks 4, 8, and 14 postinoculation (PI), respectively. Despite the fact that the pigs were continuously reinfected, dramatic reductions in numbers of liver lesions (white spots) and migrating lung larvae were observed as a function of time. However, even at the end of the study, a few larvae were able to complete migration, but these larvae seemed unable to mature in the small intestine. Thus, the adult worm population seemed to consist of worms from the first part of the exposure period. The noticeable decrease in number of white spots suggests that the level of exposure is not reflected in the number of white spots in the late phase of a continuous infection. The serum levels of A. suum L3-specific IgG1 and IgA were significantly elevated by week 4 PI, after which the antibody levels declined. The population dynamics and parasite regulating mechanisms are discussed for A. suum in pigs as well as for the closely related species A. lumbricoides in humans.

  3. Effects of Peanut-Tobacco Rotations on Population Dynamics of Meloidogyne arenaria in Mixed Race Populations

    OpenAIRE

    Hirunsalee, Anan; Barker, K. R.; Beute, M. K.

    1995-01-01

    A 3-year microplot study was initiated to characterize the population dynamics, reproduction potential, and survivorship of single or mixed populations of Meloidogyne arenaria race 1 (Ma1) and race 2 (Ma2), as affected by crop rotations of peanut 'Florigiant' and M. incognita races 1 and 3-resistant 'McNair 373' and susceptible 'Coker 371-Gold' tobacco. Infection, reproduction, and root damage by Ma2 on peanut and by Ma1 on resistant tobacco were limited in the first year. Infection, reproduc...

  4. Dynamic Pricing in Cloud Manufacturing Systems under Combined Effects of Consumer Structure, Negotiation, and Demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Peng

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we proposed a game-theory based framework to model the dynamic pricing process in the cloud manufacturing (CMfg system. We considered a service provider (SP, a broker agent (BA, and a dynamic service demander (SD population that is composed of price takers and bargainers in this study. The pricing processes under linear demand and constant elasticity demand were modeled, respectively. The combined effects of SD population structure, negotiation, and demand forms on the SP’s and the BA’s equilibrium prices and expected revenues were examined. We found that the SP’s optimal wholesale price, the BA’s optimal reservation price, and posted price all increase with the proportion of price takers under linear demand but decrease with it under constant elasticity demand. We also found that the BA’s optimal reservation price increases with bargainers’ power no matter under what kind of demand. Through analyzing the participants’ revenues, we showed that a dynamic SD population with a high ratio of price takers would benefit the SP and the BA.

  5. Dynamical behavior of a single polymer chain under nanometric confinement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lagrené, K.; Zanotti, J.-M.; Daoud, M.; Farago, B.; Judeinstein, P.

    2010-10-01

    We address the dynamical behavior of a single polymer chain under nanometric confinement. We consider a polymer melt made of a mixture of hydrogenated and deuterated high molecular mass Poly(Ethylene Oxide) (PEO). The confining material is a membrane of Anodic Aluminum Oxide (AAO), a macroscopically highly ordered confining system made of parallel cylindrical channels. We use Neutron Spin-Echo (NSE) under the Zero Average Contrast (ZAC) condition to, all at once, i) match the intense porous AAO detrimental elastic SANS (Small Angle Neutron Scattering) contribution to the total intermediate scattering function I(Q,t) and ii) measure the Q dependence of the dynamical modes of a single chain under confinement. The polymer dynamics is probed on an extremely broad spacial ([2.2 10-2 Å-1, 0.2 Å-1]) and temporal ([0.1 ns, 600 ns]) ranges. We do not detect any influence of confinement on the polymer dynamics. This result is discussed in the framework of the debate on the existence of a "corset effect" recently suggested by NMR relaxometry data.

  6. Exploiting Fast-Variables to Understand Population Dynamics and Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Constable, George W. A.; McKane, Alan J.

    2017-11-01

    We describe a continuous-time modelling framework for biological population dynamics that accounts for demographic noise. In the spirit of the methodology used by statistical physicists, transitions between the states of the system are caused by individual events while the dynamics are described in terms of the time-evolution of a probability density function. In general, the application of the diffusion approximation still leaves a description that is quite complex. However, in many biological applications one or more of the processes happen slowly relative to the system's other processes, and the dynamics can be approximated as occurring within a slow low-dimensional subspace. We review these time-scale separation arguments and analyse the more simple stochastic dynamics that result in a number of cases. We stress that it is important to retain the demographic noise derived in this way, and emphasise this point by showing that it can alter the direction of selection compared to the prediction made from an analysis of the corresponding deterministic model.

  7. Cooperation guided by the coexistence of imitation dynamics and aspiration dynamics in structured populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Kuangyi; Li, Kun; Cong, Rui; Wang, Long

    2017-02-01

    In the framework of the evolutionary game theory, two fundamentally different mechanisms, the imitation process and the aspiration-driven dynamics, can be adopted by players to update their strategies. In the former case, individuals imitate the strategy of a more successful peer, while in the latter case individuals change their strategies based on a comparison of payoffs they collect in the game to their own aspiration levels. Here we explore how cooperation evolves for the coexistence of these two dynamics. Intriguingly, cooperation reaches its lowest level when a certain moderate fraction of individuals pick aspiration-level-driven rule while the others choose pairwise comparison rule. Furthermore, when individuals can adjust their update rules besides their strategies, either imitation dynamics or aspiration-driven dynamics will finally take over the entire population, and the stationary cooperation level is determined by the outcome of competition between these two dynamics. We find that appropriate synergetic effects and moderate aspiration level boost the fixation probability of aspiration-driven dynamics most effectively. Our work may be helpful in understanding the cooperative behavior induced by the coexistence of imitation dynamics and aspiration dynamics in the society.

  8. Population Dynamics of Patients with Bacterial Resistance in Hospital Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leilei Qu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available During the past decades, the increase of antibiotic resistance has become a major concern worldwide. The researchers found that superbugs with new type of resistance genes (NDM-1 have two aspects of transmission characteristics; the first is that the antibiotic resistance genes can horizontally transfer among bacteria, and the other is that the superbugs can spread between humans through direct contact. Based on these two transmission mechanisms, we study the dynamics of population in hospital environment where superbugs exist. In this paper, we build three mathematic models to illustrate the dynamics of patients with bacterial resistance in hospital environment. The models are analyzed using stability theory of differential equations. Positive equilibrium points of the system are investigated and their stability analysis is carried out. Moreover, the numerical simulation of the proposed model is also performed which supports the theoretical findings.

  9. Dynamic population gratings in rare-earth-doped optical fibres

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stepanov, Serguei [Optics Department, CICESE, km.107 carr. Tijuana-Ensenada, Ensenada, 22860, BC (Mexico)], E-mail: steps@cicese.mx

    2008-11-21

    Dynamic Bragg gratings can be recorded in rare-earth (e.g. Er, Yb) doped optical fibres by two counter-propagating mutually coherent laser waves via local saturation of the fibre optical absorption or gain (in optically pumped fibres). Typical recording cw light power needed for efficient grating formation is of sub-mW-mW scale which results in characteristic recording/erasure times of 10-0.1 ms. This review paper discusses fundamental aspects of the population grating formation, their basic properties, relating wave-mixing processes and also considers different applications of these dynamic gratings in single-frequency fibre lasers, tunable filters, optical fibre sensors and adaptive interferometry.

  10. Dynamic population gratings in rare-earth-doped optical fibres

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stepanov, Serguei

    2008-01-01

    Dynamic Bragg gratings can be recorded in rare-earth (e.g. Er, Yb) doped optical fibres by two counter-propagating mutually coherent laser waves via local saturation of the fibre optical absorption or gain (in optically pumped fibres). Typical recording cw light power needed for efficient grating formation is of sub-mW-mW scale which results in characteristic recording/erasure times of 10-0.1 ms. This review paper discusses fundamental aspects of the population grating formation, their basic properties, relating wave-mixing processes and also considers different applications of these dynamic gratings in single-frequency fibre lasers, tunable filters, optical fibre sensors and adaptive interferometry.

  11. Population dynamics of minimally cognitive individuals. Part 2: Dynamics of time-dependent knowledge

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schmieder, R.W.

    1995-07-01

    The dynamical principle for a population of interacting individuals with mutual pairwise knowledge, presented by the author in a previous paper for the case of constant knowledge, is extended to include the possibility that the knowledge is time-dependent. Several mechanisms are presented by which the mutual knowledge, represented by a matrix K, can be altered, leading to dynamical equations for K(t). The author presents various examples of the transient and long time asymptotic behavior of K(t) for populations of relatively isolated individuals interacting infrequently in local binary collisions. Among the effects observed in the numerical experiments are knowledge diffusion, learning transients, and fluctuating equilibria. This approach will be most appropriate to small populations of complex individuals such as simple animals, robots, computer networks, agent-mediated traffic, simple ecosystems, and games. Evidence of metastable states and intermittent switching leads them to envision a spectroscopy associated with such transitions that is independent of the specific physical individuals and the population. Such spectra may serve as good lumped descriptors of the collective emergent behavior of large classes of populations in which mutual knowledge is an important part of the dynamics.

  12. The dynamics of diverse segmental amplifications in populations of Saccharomyces cerevisiae adapting to strong selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Payen, Celia; Di Rienzi, Sara C; Ong, Giang T; Pogachar, Jamie L; Sanchez, Joseph C; Sunshine, Anna B; Raghuraman, M K; Brewer, Bonita J; Dunham, Maitreya J

    2014-03-20

    Population adaptation to strong selection can occur through the sequential or parallel accumulation of competing beneficial mutations. The dynamics, diversity, and rate of fixation of beneficial mutations within and between populations are still poorly understood. To study how the mutational landscape varies across populations during adaptation, we performed experimental evolution on seven parallel populations of Saccharomyces cerevisiae continuously cultured in limiting sulfate medium. By combining quantitative polymerase chain reaction, array comparative genomic hybridization, restriction digestion and contour-clamped homogeneous electric field gel electrophoresis, and whole-genome sequencing, we followed the trajectory of evolution to determine the identity and fate of beneficial mutations. During a period of 200 generations, the yeast populations displayed parallel evolutionary dynamics that were driven by the coexistence of independent beneficial mutations. Selective amplifications rapidly evolved under this selection pressure, in particular common inverted amplifications containing the sulfate transporter gene SUL1. Compared with single clones, detailed analysis of the populations uncovers a greater complexity whereby multiple subpopulations arise and compete despite a strong selection. The most common evolutionary adaptation to strong selection in these populations grown in sulfate limitation is determined by clonal interference, with adaptive variants both persisting and replacing one another.

  13. Do farming practices influence population dynamics of rodents?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Massawe, A W; Rwamugira, W; Leirs, Herwig

    2007-01-01

    A capture-mark-recapture study was conducted in crop fields in Morogoro, Tanzania, to investigate how the population dynamics of multimammate field rats, Mastomys natalensis, was influenced by the commonly practised land preparation methods and cropping systems. Two land preparation methods (trac...... practices. In maize fields in Tanzania, the crop is most susceptible to damage by M. natalensis in the first 2 weeks after planting, and therefore, lower densities of rodents will result into lower crop damage in tractor ploughed fields....

  14. Optimal growth entails risky localization in population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gueudré, Thomas; Martin, David G.

    2018-03-01

    Essential to each other, growth and exploration are jointly observed in alive and inanimate entities, such as animals, cells or goods. But how the environment's structural and temporal properties weights in this balance remains elusive. We analyze a model of stochastic growth with time correlations and diffusive dynamics that sheds light on the way populations grow and spread over general networks. This model suggests natural explanations of empirical facts in econo-physics or ecology, such as the risk-return trade-off and the Zipf law. We conclude that optimal growth leads to a localized population distribution, but such risky position can be mitigated through the space geometry. These results have broad applicability and are subsequently illustrated over an empirical study of financial data.

  15. Fast stochastic algorithm for simulating evolutionary population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsimring, Lev; Hasty, Jeff; Mather, William

    2012-02-01

    Evolution and co-evolution of ecological communities are stochastic processes often characterized by vastly different rates of reproduction and mutation and a coexistence of very large and very small sub-populations of co-evolving species. This creates serious difficulties for accurate statistical modeling of evolutionary dynamics. In this talk, we introduce a new exact algorithm for fast fully stochastic simulations of birth/death/mutation processes. It produces a significant speedup compared to the direct stochastic simulation algorithm in a typical case when the total population size is large and the mutation rates are much smaller than birth/death rates. We illustrate the performance of the algorithm on several representative examples: evolution on a smooth fitness landscape, NK model, and stochastic predator-prey system.

  16. Outward migration may alter population dynamics and income inequality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shayegh, Soheil

    2017-11-01

    Climate change impacts may drive affected populations to migrate. However, migration decisions in response to climate change could have broader effects on population dynamics in affected regions. Here, I model the effect of climate change on fertility rates, income inequality, and human capital accumulation in developing countries, focusing on the instrumental role of migration as a key adaptation mechanism. In particular, I investigate how climate-induced migration in developing countries will affect those who do not migrate. I find that holding all else constant, climate change raises the return on acquiring skills, because skilled individuals have greater migration opportunities than unskilled individuals. In response to this change in incentives, parents may choose to invest more in education and have fewer children. This may ultimately reduce local income inequality, partially offsetting some of the damages of climate change for low-income individuals who do not migrate.

  17. State-dependent neutral delay equations from population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbarossa, M V; Hadeler, K P; Kuttler, C

    2014-10-01

    A novel class of state-dependent delay equations is derived from the balance laws of age-structured population dynamics, assuming that birth rates and death rates, as functions of age, are piece-wise constant and that the length of the juvenile phase depends on the total adult population size. The resulting class of equations includes also neutral delay equations. All these equations are very different from the standard delay equations with state-dependent delay since the balance laws require non-linear correction factors. These equations can be written as systems for two variables consisting of an ordinary differential equation (ODE) and a generalized shift, a form suitable for numerical calculations. It is shown that the neutral equation (and the corresponding ODE--shift system) is a limiting case of a system of two standard delay equations.

  18. Successional changes in trophic interactions support a mechanistic model of post-fire population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Annabel L

    2018-01-01

    Models based on functional traits have limited power in predicting how animal populations respond to disturbance because they do not capture the range of demographic and biological factors that drive population dynamics, including variation in trophic interactions. I tested the hypothesis that successional changes in vegetation structure, which affected invertebrate abundance, would influence growth rates and body condition in the early-successional, insectivorous gecko Nephrurus stellatus. I captured geckos at 17 woodland sites spanning a succession gradient from 2 to 48 years post-fire. Body condition and growth rates were analysed as a function of the best-fitting fire-related predictor (invertebrate abundance or time since fire) with different combinations of the co-variates age, sex and location. Body condition in the whole population was positively affected by increasing invertebrate abundance and, in the adult population, this effect was most pronounced for females. There was strong support for a decline in growth rates in weight with time since fire. The results suggest that increased early-successional invertebrate abundance has filtered through to a higher trophic level with physiological benefits for insectivorous geckos. I integrated the new findings about trophic interactions into a general conceptual model of mechanisms underlying post-fire population dynamics based on a long-term research programme. The model highlights how greater food availability during early succession could drive rapid population growth by contributing to previously reported enhanced reproduction and dispersal. This study provides a framework to understand links between ecological and physiological traits underlying post-fire population dynamics.

  19. Population ecology, nonlinear dynamics, and social evolution. I. Associations among nonrelatives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avilés, Leticia; Abbot, Patrick; Cutter, Asher D

    2002-02-01

    Using an individual-based and genetically explicit simulation model, we explore the evolution of sociality within a population-ecology and nonlinear-dynamics framework. Assuming that individual fitness is a unimodal function of group size and that cooperation may carry a relative fitness cost, we consider the evolution of one-generation breeding associations among nonrelatives. We explore how parameters such as the intrinsic rate of growth and group and global carrying capacities may influence social evolution and how social evolution may, in turn, influence and be influenced by emerging group-level and population-wide dynamics. We find that group living and cooperation evolve under a wide range of parameter values, even when cooperation is costly and the interactions can be defined as altruistic. Greater levels of cooperation, however, did evolve when cooperation carried a low or no relative fitness cost. Larger group carrying capacities allowed the evolution of larger groups but also resulted in lower cooperative tendencies. When the intrinsic rate of growth was not too small and control of the global population size was density dependent, the evolution of large cooperative tendencies resulted in dynamically unstable groups and populations. These results are consistent with the existence and typical group sizes of organisms ranging from the pleometrotic ants to the colonial birds and the global population outbreaks and crashes characteristic of organisms such as the migratory locusts and the tree-killing bark beetles.

  20. Dynamic control of a bistable wing under aerodynamic loading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bilgen, Onur; Arrieta, Andres F; Friswell, Michael I; Hagedorn, Peter

    2013-01-01

    The aerodynamic evaluation of a dynamic control technique applied to a bistable unsymmetrical cross-ply composite plate with surface bonded piezoelectric actuators is presented. The plate is clamped on one end to form a low-aspect-ratio wing. A previously proposed dynamic control method, utilizing bending resonance in different stable equilibrium positions, is used to induce snap-through between the two equilibrium states. Compared to quasi-static actuation, driving the bistable plate near resonance using surface bonded piezoelectric materials requires, theoretically, a lower peak excitation voltage to achieve snap-through. First, a set of extensive wind tunnel experiments are conducted on the passive bistable wing to understand the change in the dynamic behavior under various aerodynamic conditions. The passive wing demonstrated sufficient bending stiffness to sustain its shape under aerodynamic loading while preserving the desired bistable behavior. Next, by the use of the resonant control technique, the plate is turned into an effectively monostable structure, or alternatively, both stable equilibrium positions can be reached actively from the other stable equilibrium. Dynamic forward and reverse snap-through is demonstrated in the wind tunnel which shows both the effectiveness of the piezoelectric actuation as well as the load carrying capability of both states of the bistable wing. (paper)

  1. The dynamic behavior of mortar under impact-loading

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawai, Nobuaki; Inoue, Kenji; Misawa, Satoshi; Tanaka, Kyoji; Hayashi, Shizuo; Kondo, Ken-Ichi; Riedel, Werner

    2007-06-01

    Concrete and mortar are the most fundamental structural material. Therefore, considerable interest in characterizing the dynamic behavior of them under impact-loading exists. In this study, plate impact experiments have been performed to determine the dynamic behavior of mortar. Longitudinal and lateral stresses have been directly measured by means of embedded polyvinylidene fluoride (PVDF) gauges up to 1 GPa. A 200 mm-cal. powder gun enable us to measure longitudinal and lateral stresses at several point from the impact surface, simultaneously. The shear strength under impact-loading has been obtained from measured longitudinal and lateral stresses. The longitudinal stress profile shows a two-wave structure. It is indicated that this structure is associated with the onset of pore compaction and failure of mortar by comparing with hydrocode simulations using an elastic-plastic damage model for concrete.

  2. Dynamics of entanglement under decoherence in noninertial frames

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shi Jia-Dong; Wu Tao; Song Xue-Ke; Ye Liu

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate the entanglement dynamics of a two-qubit entangled state coupled with its noisy environment, and plan to utilize weak measurement and quantum reversal measurement to study the entanglement dynamics under different decoherence channels in noninertial frames. Through the calculations and analyses, it is shown that the weak measurement can prevent entanglement from coupling to the amplitude damping channel, while the system is under the phase damping and flip channels. This protection protocol cannot prevent entanglement but will accelerate the death of entanglement. In addition, if the system is in the noninertial reference frame, then the effect of weak measurement will be weakened for the amplitude damping channel. Nevertheless, for other decoherence channels, the Unruh effect does not affect the quantum weak measurement, the only exception is that the maximum value of entanglement is reduced to √2/2 of the original value in the inertial frames. (general)

  3. Effects of Peanut-Tobacco Rotations on Population Dynamics of Meloidogyne arenaria in Mixed Race Populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirunsalee, A; Barker, K R; Beute, M K

    1995-06-01

    A 3-year microplot study was initiated to characterize the population dynamics, reproduction potential, and survivorship of single or mixed populations of Meloidogyne arenaria race 1 (Ma1) and race 2 (Ma2), as affected by crop rotations of peanut 'Florigiant' and M. incognita races 1 and 3-resistant 'McNair 373' and susceptible 'Coker 371-Gold' tobacco. Infection, reproduction, and root damage by Ma2 on peanut and by Ma1 on resistant tobacco were limited in the first year. Infection, reproduction, and root-damage potentials on susceptible tobacco were similar for Ma1 and Ma2. In the mixed (1:1) population, Ma1 was dominant on peanut and Ma2 was dominant on both tobacco cultivars. Crop rotation affected the population dynamics of different nematode races. For years 2 and 3, the low numbers of Ma1 and Ma2 from a previous-year poor host increased rapidly on suitable hosts. Ma1 had greater reproduction factors ([RF] = population density at harvest/population density at preplandng) than did Ma2 and Ma1 + Ma2 in second-year peanut plots following first-year resistant tobacco, and in third-year peanut plots following second-year tobacco. In mixed infestations, Ma1 predominated over Ma2 in previous-year peanut plots, whereas Ma2 predominated over Ma1 in previous-year tobacco plots. Moderate damage on resistant tobacco was induced by Ma1 in the second year. In the third year, moderate damage on peanut was associated with 'Ma2' from previous-year peanut plots. The resistant tobacco supported sufficient reproduction of Ma1 over 2 years to effect moderate damage and yield suppression to peanut in year 3.

  4. Representation of dynamical stimuli in populations of threshold neurons.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tatjana Tchumatchenko

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Many sensory or cognitive events are associated with dynamic current modulations in cortical neurons. This raises an urgent demand for tractable model approaches addressing the merits and limits of potential encoding strategies. Yet, current theoretical approaches addressing the response to mean- and variance-encoded stimuli rarely provide complete response functions for both modes of encoding in the presence of correlated noise. Here, we investigate the neuronal population response to dynamical modifications of the mean or variance of the synaptic bombardment using an alternative threshold model framework. In the variance and mean channel, we provide explicit expressions for the linear and non-linear frequency response functions in the presence of correlated noise and use them to derive population rate response to step-like stimuli. For mean-encoded signals, we find that the complete response function depends only on the temporal width of the input correlation function, but not on other functional specifics. Furthermore, we show that both mean- and variance-encoded signals can relay high-frequency inputs, and in both schemes step-like changes can be detected instantaneously. Finally, we obtain the pairwise spike correlation function and the spike triggered average from the linear mean-evoked response function. These results provide a maximally tractable limiting case that complements and extends previous results obtained in the integrate and fire framework.

  5. Population dynamics of Trichuris suis in trickle-infected pigs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nejsum, P; Thamsborg, S M; Petersen, H H; Kringel, H; Fredholm, M; Roepstorff, A

    2009-05-01

    The population dynamics of Trichuris suis in pigs was studied during long-term experimental infections. Twenty-three 10-week-old pigs were inoculated with 5 T. suis eggs/kg/day. Seven, 8, and 8 pigs were necropsied at weeks 4, 8, and 14 post-start of infection (p.i.), respectively. The median numbers of worms in the colon were 538 (min-max: 277-618), 332 (14-1140) and 0 (0-4) at 4, 8, and 14 weeks p.i. respectively, suggesting an increased aggregation of the worms with time and acquisition of nearly sterile immunity. The serum levels of T. suis specific antibodies (IgG1, IgG2 and IgA) peaked at week 8 p.i. By week 14 p.i. the IgG2 and IgA antibody levels remained significantly elevated above the level of week 0. The population dynamics of T. suis trickle infections in pigs is discussed with focus on interpretation of diagnostic and epidemiological data of pigs, the use of pigs as a model for human Trichuris trichiura infections and the novel approach of using T. suis eggs in the treatment of patients with inflammatory bowel disease.

  6. Space-charge dynamics of polymethylmethacrylate under electron beam irradiation

    CERN Document Server

    Gong, H; Ong, C K

    1997-01-01

    Space-charge dynamics of polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA) under electron beam irradiation has been investigated employing a scanning electron microscope. Assuming a Gaussian space-charge distribution, the distribution range (sigma) has been determined using a time-resolved current method in conjunction with a mirror image method. sigma is found to increase with irradiation time and eventually attain a stationary value. These observations have been discussed by taking into account radiation-induced conductivity and charge mobility. (author)

  7. Dynamic Pricing Competition with Strategic Customers Under Vertical Product Differentiation

    OpenAIRE

    Qian Liu; Dan Zhang

    2013-01-01

    We consider dynamic pricing competition between two firms offering vertically differentiated products to strategic customers who are intertemporal utility maximizers. We show that price skimming arises as the unique pure-strategy Markov perfect equilibrium in the game under a simple condition. Our results highlight the asymmetric effect of strategic customer behavior on quality-differentiated firms. Even though the profit of either firm decreases as customers become more strategic, the low-qu...

  8. Dynamics of genetic processes in chronically irradiated populations of small mammals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ryabokon', N.I.; Goncharova, R.I.; Smolich, I.I.; Kapitanova, N.P.; Nikitchenko, N.V.

    2000-01-01

    The distinctive features of dynamics of mutagenesis in mammalian populations under chronic low-intensive irradiation were first revealed. The main of them is gradual increase in mutability in somatic cells and embryonal lethality during series of irradiated generations of animals (bank vole - Clethrionomys glareolus). The data obtained strongly suggest that there are oppositely directed processes in natural populations after irradiation of more than 20 generations of animals: on the one hand, accumulation of mutations (genetic load of populations) and pre-mutation events which increase genome instability of germ and somatic cells in consecutive generations of animals, and on the other, formation of genetic radio adaptation through better functioning protection systems. In this period of micro evolution in chronically irradiated populations, the frequencies of genetic damages could be higher if the radiation adaptation doesn't form. (authors)

  9. Designing hunting regulation under population uncertainty and self-reporting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Frank; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark

    2016-01-01

    A number of methods exist for estimating the size of animal populations. All methods generate an uncertain estimate of population size, and have different properties, which can be taken into account when designing regulation. We consider hunting regulation when the population size is uncertain...... and when the self-reported bag is used to estimate the population size. The properties of a population tax and a tax on self-reported bag are analyzed and we begin by considering a baseline situation with full certainty and no use of self-reporting for population size estimation. Here individual hunters...... self-report a bag on zero and a population tax alone can secure an optimum. Next we show that when facing uncertain population size, a risk-averse hunter will self-report part of the bag to reduce the uncertain population tax payment, making both tax instruments necessary for reaching an optimum...

  10. The population and evolutionary dynamics of homologous gene recombination in bacterial populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruce R Levin

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available In bacteria, recombination is a rare event, not a part of the reproductive process. Nevertheless, recombination -- broadly defined to include the acquisition of genes from external sources, i.e., horizontal gene transfer (HGT -- plays a central role as a source of variation for adaptive evolution in many species of bacteria. Much of niche expansion, resistance to antibiotics and other environmental stresses, virulence, and other characteristics that make bacteria interesting and problematic, is achieved through the expression of genes and genetic elements obtained from other populations of bacteria of the same and different species, as well as from eukaryotes and archaea. While recombination of homologous genes among members of the same species has played a central role in the development of the genetics and molecular biology of bacteria, the contribution of homologous gene recombination (HGR to bacterial evolution is not at all clear. Also, not so clear are the selective pressures responsible for the evolution and maintenance of transformation, the only bacteria-encoded form of HGR. Using a semi-stochastic simulation of mutation, recombination, and selection within bacterial populations and competition between populations, we explore (1 the contribution of HGR to the rate of adaptive evolution in these populations and (2 the conditions under which HGR will provide a bacterial population a selective advantage over non-recombining or more slowly recombining populations. The results of our simulation indicate that, under broad conditions: (1 HGR occurring at rates in the range anticipated for bacteria like Streptococcus pneumoniae, Escherichia coli, Haemophilus influenzae, and Bacillus subtilis will accelerate the rate at which a population adapts to environmental conditions; (2 once established in a population, selection for this capacity to increase rates of adaptive evolution can maintain bacteria-encoded mechanisms of recombination and prevent

  11. Seasonal dynamics of snail populations in coastal Kenya: Model calibration and snail control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurarie, D.; King, C. H.; Yoon, N.; Wang, X.; Alsallaq, R.

    2017-10-01

    A proper snail population model is important for accurately predicting Schistosoma transmission. Field data shows that the overall snail population and that of shedding snails have a strong pattern of seasonal variation. Because human hosts are infected by the cercariae released from shedding snails, the abundance of the snail population sets ultimate limits on human infection. For developing a predictive dynamic model of schistosome infection and control strategies we need realistic snail population dynamics. Here we propose two such models based on underlying environmental factors and snail population biology. The models consist of two-stage (young-adult) populations with resource-dependent reproduction, survival, maturation. The key input in the system is seasonal rainfall which creates snail habitats and resources (small vegetation). The models were tested, calibrated and validated using dataset collected in Msambweni (coastal Kenya). Seasonal rainfall in Msambweni is highly variable with intermittent wet - dry seasons. Typical snail patterns follow precipitation peaks with 2-4-month time-lag. Our models are able to reproduce such seasonal variability over extended period of time (3-year study). We applied them to explore the optimal seasonal timing for implementing snail control.

  12. A consumer-resource approach to the density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holland, J Nathaniel; DeAngelis, Donald L

    2010-05-01

    Like predation and competition, mutualism is now recognized as a consumer-resource (C-R) interaction, including, in particular, bi-directional (e.g., coral, plant-mycorrhizae) and uni-directional (e.g., ant-plant defense, plant-pollinator) C-R mutualisms. Here, we develop general theory for the density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism based on the C-R mechanism of interspecific interaction. To test the influence of C-R interactions on the dynamics and stability of bi- and uni-directional C-R mutualisms, we developed simple models that link consumer functional response of one mutualistic species with the resources supplied by another. Phase-plane analyses show that the ecological dynamics of C-R mutualisms are stable in general. Most transient behavior leads to an equilibrium of mutualistic coexistence, at which both species densities are greater than in the absence of interactions. However, due to the basic nature of C-R interactions, certain density-dependent conditions can lead to C-R dynamics characteristic of predator-prey interactions, in which one species overexploits and causes the other to go extinct. Consistent with empirical phenomena, these results suggest that the C-R interaction can provide a broad mechanism for understanding density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism. By unifying predation, competition, and mutualism under the common ecological framework of consumer-resource theory, we may also gain a better understanding of the universal features of interspecific interactions in general.

  13. Spiking, Bursting, and Population Dynamics in a Network of Growth Transform Neurons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gangopadhyay, Ahana; Chakrabartty, Shantanu

    2017-04-27

    This paper investigates the dynamical properties of a network of neurons, each of which implements an asynchronous mapping based on polynomial growth transforms. In the first part of this paper, we present a geometric approach for visualizing the dynamics of the network where each of the neurons traverses a trajectory in a dual optimization space, whereas the network itself traverses a trajectory in an equivalent primal optimization space. We show that as the network learns to solve basic classification tasks, different choices of primal-dual mapping produce unique but interpretable neural dynamics like noise shaping, spiking, and bursting. While the proposed framework is general enough, in this paper, we demonstrate its use for designing support vector machines (SVMs) that exhibit noise-shaping properties similar to those of ΣΔ modulators, and for designing SVMs that learn to encode information using spikes and bursts. It is demonstrated that the emergent switching, spiking, and burst dynamics produced by each neuron encodes its respective margin of separation from a classification hyperplane whose parameters are encoded by the network population dynamics. We believe that the proposed growth transform neuron model and the underlying geometric framework could serve as an important tool to connect well-established machine learning algorithms like SVMs to neuromorphic principles like spiking, bursting, population encoding, and noise shaping.

  14. A consumer-resource approach to the density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holland, J. Nathaniel; DeAngelis, Donald L.

    2010-01-01

    Like predation and competition, mutualism is now recognized as a consumer resource (C-R) interaction, including, in particular, bi-directional (e.g., coral, plant- mycorrhizae) and uni-directional (e.g., ant-plant defense, plant-pollinator) C-R mutualisms. Here, we develop general theory for the density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism based on the C-R mechanism of interspecific interaction. To test the influence of C-R interactions on the dynamics and stability of bi- and uni-directional C-R mutualisms, we developed simple models that link consumer functional response of one mutualistic species with the resources supplied by another. Phase-plane analyses show that the ecological dynamics of C-R mutualisms are stable in general. Most transient behavior leads to an equilibrium of mutualistic coexistence, at which both species densities are greater than in the absence of interactions. However, due to the basic nature of C-R interactions, certain density-dependent conditions can lead to C-R dynamics characteristic of predator-prey interactions, in which one species overexploits and causes the other to go extinct. Consistent with empirical phenomena, these results suggest that the C-R interaction can provide a broad mechanism for understanding density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism. By unifying predation, competition, and mutualism under the common ecological framework of consumer-resource theory, we may also gain a better understanding of the universal features of interspecific interactions in general.

  15. Considering transient population dynamics in the conservation of slow life-history species: An application to the sandhill crane

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerber, Brian D.; Kendall, William L.

    2016-01-01

    The importance of transient dynamics of structured populations is increasingly recognized in ecology, yet these implications are not largely considered in conservation practices. We investigate transient and long-term population dynamics to demonstrate the process and utility of incorporating transient dynamics into conservation research and to better understand the population management of slow life-history species; these species can be theoretically highly sensitive to short- and long-term transient effects. We are specifically interested in the effects of anthropogenic removal of individuals from populations, such as caused by harvest, poaching, translocation, or incidental take. We use the sandhill crane (Grus canadensis) as an exemplar species; it is long-lived, has low reproduction, late maturity, and multiple populations are subject to sport harvest. We found sandhill cranes to have extremely high potential, but low likelihood for transient dynamics, even when the population is being harvested. The typically low population growth rate of slow life-history species appears to buffer against many perturbations causing large transient effects. Transient dynamics will dominate population trajectories of these species when stage structures are highly biased towards the younger and non-reproducing individuals, a situation that may be rare in established populations of long-lived animals. However, short-term transient population growth can be highly sensitive to vital rates that are relatively insensitive under equilibrium, suggesting that stage structure should be known if perturbation analysis is used to identify effective conservation strategies. For populations of slow life-history species that are not prone to large perturbations to their most productive individuals, population growth may be approximated by equilibrium dynamics.

  16. Plasmodium vivax Population Structure and Transmission Dynamics in Sabah Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdullah, Noor Rain; Barber, Bridget E.; William, Timothy; Norahmad, Nor Azrina; Satsu, Umi Rubiah; Muniandy, Prem Kumar; Ismail, Zakiah; Grigg, Matthew J.; Jelip, Jenarun; Piera, Kim; von Seidlein, Lorenz; Yeo, Tsin W.; Anstey, Nicholas M.; Price, Ric N.; Auburn, Sarah

    2013-01-01

    Despite significant progress in the control of malaria in Malaysia, the complex transmission dynamics of P. vivax continue to challenge national efforts to achieve elimination. To assess the impact of ongoing interventions on P. vivax transmission dynamics in Sabah, we genotyped 9 short tandem repeat markers in a total of 97 isolates (8 recurrences) from across Sabah, with a focus on two districts, Kota Marudu (KM, n = 24) and Kota Kinabalu (KK, n = 21), over a 2 year period. STRUCTURE analysis on the Sabah-wide dataset demonstrated multiple sub-populations. Significant differentiation (F ST  = 0.243) was observed between KM and KK, located just 130 Km apart. Consistent with low endemic transmission, infection complexity was modest in both KM (mean MOI  = 1.38) and KK (mean MOI  = 1.19). However, population diversity remained moderate (H E  = 0.583 in KM and H E  = 0.667 in KK). Temporal trends revealed clonal expansions reflecting epidemic transmission dynamics. The haplotypes of these isolates declined in frequency over time, but persisted at low frequency throughout the study duration. A diverse array of low frequency isolates were detected in both KM and KK, some likely reflecting remnants of previous expansions. In accordance with clonal expansions, high levels of Linkage Disequilibrium (I A S >0.5 [P<0.0001] in KK and KM) declined sharply when identical haplotypes were represented once (I A S  = 0.07 [P = 0.0076] in KM, and I A S = -0.003 [P = 0.606] in KK). All 8 recurrences, likely to be relapses, were homologous to the prior infection. These recurrences may promote the persistence of parasite lineages, sustaining local diversity. In summary, Sabah's shrinking P. vivax population appears to have rendered this low endemic setting vulnerable to epidemic expansions. Migration may play an important role in the introduction of new parasite strains leading to epidemic expansions, with important implications for malaria

  17. Unsteady exergy destruction of the neuron under dynamic stress conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Genc, S.; Sorguven, E.; Ozilgen, M.; Aksan Kurnaz, I.

    2013-01-01

    Just like all physical systems, biological systems also obey laws of thermodynamics, and as such the useful work potential of a biological system is its exergy. In some studies, exergy of living systems is considered with respect to work performance of humans in offices or buildings; however the exergy analysis of biochemical reactions in a cell as a closed system goes largely untouched. In this study, exergy analysis was applied to glucose metabolism of a model neuron, and dynamic exergy destructions were calculated for four different conditions, namely normoxia, hypoxia, glucose starvation and excess glucose. Our results showed that neuronal metabolism achieved a new steady state under each condition within 5 min. This dynamic model predicts that, both exergy destruction and work potential rates increase with increasing blood glucose concentration. The ratio of exergy destruction rate to work potential rate increases logarithmically with increasing blood glucose concentration. The neuronal metabolism is thus found to function in an efficient way and switches to lower exergy destruction under stress conditions such as glucose starvation. This behavior seen in this exergy analysis study confirms the assumption of minimum entropy production in living systems. - Highlights: • Unsteady exergy analysis of glucose metabolism of a model neuron is performed. • Dynamic exergy losses were calculated for four different conditions: normoxia, hypoxia, glucose starvation and excess glucose. • Neuronal metabolism achieved a new steady state under each condition within 5 min. • Both exergy loss and work potential rates increase with increasing blood glucose concentration. • Neuronal metabolism functions in an efficient way and switches to lower exergy loss under stress conditions

  18. Dynamic response of multiple nanobeam system under a moving nanoparticle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shahrokh Hosseini Hashemi

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available In this article, nonlocal continuum based model of multiple nanobeam system (MNBS under a moving nanoparticle is investigated using Eringen’s nonlocal theory. Beam layers are assumed to be coupled by winkler elastic medium and the nonlocal Euler-Bernoulli beam theory is used to model each layer of beam. The Hamilton’s principle, Eigen function technique and the Laplace transform method are employed to solve the governing equations. Analytical solutions of the transverse displacements for MNBs with simply supported boundary condition are presented for double layered and three layered MNBSs. For higher number of layers, the governing set of equations is solved numerically and the results are presented. This study shows that small-scale parameter has a significant effect on dynamic response of MNBS under a moving nanoparticle. Sensitivity of dynamical deflection to variation of nonlocal parameter, stiffness of Winkler elastic medium and number of nanobeams are presented in nondimensional form for each layer. Keywords: Dynamic response, Analytical solution, Moving particle, Nanobeam, Multi-layered nanobeam

  19. Effect of support conditions on structural response under dynamic loading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akram, T.; Memon, S.A.

    2008-01-01

    In design practice, dynamic structural analysis is carried out with base of structure considered as fixed; this means that foundation is placed on rock like soil material. While conducting this type of analyses the role of foundation and soil behaviour is totally neglected. The actions in members and loads transferred at foundation level obtained in this manner do not depict the true structural behaviour. FEM (Finite Element Methods) analysis where both superstructure and foundation soil are coupled together is quite complicated and expensive for design environments. A simplified model is required to depict dynamic response of structures with foundations based on flexible soils. The primary purpose of this research is to compare the superstructure dynamic responses of structural systems with fixed base to that of simple soil model base. The selected simple soil model is to be suitable for use in a design environment to give more realistic results. For this purpose building models are idealized with various heights and structural systems in both 2D (Two Dimensional) and 3D (Three Dimensional) space. These models are then provided with visco-elastic supports representing three soil bearing capacities and the analysis results are compared to that of fixed supports models. The results indicate that fixed support system underestimates natural time period of the structures. Dynamic behavior and force response of visco-elastic support is different from fixed support model. Fixed support models result in over designed base columns and under designed beams. (author)

  20. Dynamic coherence in excitonic molecular complexes under various excitation conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chenu, Aurélia; Malý, Pavel; Mančal, Tomáš, E-mail: mancal@karlov.mff.cuni.cz

    2014-08-17

    Highlights: • Dynamic coherence does not improve energy transfer efficiency in natural conditions. • Photo-induced quantum jumps are discussed in classical context. • Natural time scale of a light excitation event is identified. • Coherence in FMO complex averages out under excitation by neighboring antenna. • This result is valid even in absence of dissipation. - Abstract: We investigate the relevance of dynamic quantum coherence in the energy transfer efficiency of molecular aggregates. We derive the time evolution of the density matrix for an open quantum system excited by light or by a neighboring antenna. Unlike in the classical case, the quantum description does not allow for a formal decomposition of the dynamics into sudden jumps in an observable quantity – an expectation value. Rather, there is a natural finite time-scale associated with the excitation process. We propose a simple experiment to test the influence of this time scale on the yield of photosynthesis. We demonstrate, using typical parameters of the Fenna–Matthews–Olson (FMO) complex and a typical energy transfer rate from the chlorosome baseplate, that dynamic coherences are averaged out in the complex even when the FMO model is completely free of all dissipation and dephasing.

  1. Dynamic regime of coherent population trapping and optimization of frequency modulation parameters in atomic clocks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yudin, V I; Taichenachev, A V; Basalaev, M Yu; Kovalenko, D V

    2017-02-06

    We theoretically investigate the dynamic regime of coherent population trapping (CPT) in the presence of frequency modulation (FM). We have formulated the criteria for quasi-stationary (adiabatic) and dynamic (non-adiabatic) responses of atomic system driven by this FM. Using the density matrix formalism for Λ system, the error signal is exactly calculated and optimized. It is shown that the optimal FM parameters correspond to the dynamic regime of atomic-field interaction, which significantly differs from conventional description of CPT resonances in the frame of quasi-stationary approach (under small modulation frequency). Obtained theoretical results are in good qualitative agreement with different experiments. Also we have found CPT-analogue of Pound-Driver-Hall regime of frequency stabilization.

  2. A Stochastic Framework for Modeling the Population Dynamics of Convective Clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagos, Samson; Feng, Zhe; Plant, Robert S.; Houze, Robert A.; Xiao, Heng

    2018-02-01

    A stochastic prognostic framework for modeling the population dynamics of convective clouds and representing them in climate models is proposed. The framework follows the nonequilibrium statistical mechanical approach to constructing a master equation for representing the evolution of the number of convective cells of a specific size and their associated cloud-base mass flux, given a large-scale forcing. In this framework, referred to as STOchastic framework for Modeling Population dynamics of convective clouds (STOMP), the evolution of convective cell size is predicted from three key characteristics of convective cells: (i) the probability of growth, (ii) the probability of decay, and (iii) the cloud-base mass flux. STOMP models are constructed and evaluated against CPOL radar observations at Darwin and convection permitting model (CPM) simulations. Multiple models are constructed under various assumptions regarding these three key parameters and the realisms of these models are evaluated. It is shown that in a model where convective plumes prefer to aggregate spatially and the cloud-base mass flux is a nonlinear function of convective cell area, the mass flux manifests a recharge-discharge behavior under steady forcing. Such a model also produces observed behavior of convective cell populations and CPM simulated cloud-base mass flux variability under diurnally varying forcing. In addition to its use in developing understanding of convection processes and the controls on convective cell size distributions, this modeling framework is also designed to serve as a nonequilibrium closure formulations for spectral mass flux parameterizations.

  3. Mean-field games with logistic population dynamics

    KAUST Repository

    Gomes, Diogo A.

    2013-12-01

    In its standard form, a mean-field game can be defined by coupled system of equations, a Hamilton-Jacobi equation for the value function of agents and a Fokker-Planck equation for the density of agents. Traditionally, the latter equation is adjoint to the linearization of the former. Since the Fokker-Planck equation models a population dynamic, we introduce natural features such as seeding and birth, and nonlinear death rates. In this paper we analyze a stationary meanfield game in one dimension, illustrating various techniques to obtain regularity of solutions in this class of systems. In particular we consider a logistic-type model for birth and death of the agents which is natural in problems where crowding affects the death rate of the agents. The introduction of these new terms requires a number of new ideas to obtain wellposedness. In a forthcoming publication we will address higher dimensional models. ©2013 IEEE.

  4. Mean-field games with logistic population dynamics

    KAUST Repository

    Gomes, Diogo A.; De Lima Ribeiro, Ricardo

    2013-01-01

    In its standard form, a mean-field game can be defined by coupled system of equations, a Hamilton-Jacobi equation for the value function of agents and a Fokker-Planck equation for the density of agents. Traditionally, the latter equation is adjoint to the linearization of the former. Since the Fokker-Planck equation models a population dynamic, we introduce natural features such as seeding and birth, and nonlinear death rates. In this paper we analyze a stationary meanfield game in one dimension, illustrating various techniques to obtain regularity of solutions in this class of systems. In particular we consider a logistic-type model for birth and death of the agents which is natural in problems where crowding affects the death rate of the agents. The introduction of these new terms requires a number of new ideas to obtain wellposedness. In a forthcoming publication we will address higher dimensional models. ©2013 IEEE.

  5. Richards-like two species population dynamics model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribeiro, Fabiano; Cabella, Brenno Caetano Troca; Martinez, Alexandre Souto

    2014-12-01

    The two-species population dynamics model is the simplest paradigm of inter- and intra-species interaction. Here, we present a generalized Lotka-Volterra model with intraspecific competition, which retrieves as particular cases, some well-known models. The generalization parameter is related to the species habitat dimensionality and their interaction range. Contrary to standard models, the species coupling parameters are general, not restricted to non-negative values. Therefore, they may represent different ecological regimes, which are derived from the asymptotic solution stability analysis and are represented in a phase diagram. In this diagram, we have identified a forbidden region in the mutualism regime, and a survival/extinction transition with dependence on initial conditions for the competition regime. Also, we shed light on two types of predation and competition: weak, if there are species coexistence, or strong, if at least one species is extinguished.

  6. Artificial bee colony algorithm with dynamic multi-population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ming; Ji, Zhicheng; Wang, Yan

    2017-07-01

    To improve the convergence rate and make a balance between the global search and local turning abilities, this paper proposes a decentralized form of artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm with dynamic multi-populations by means of fuzzy C-means (FCM) clustering. Each subpopulation periodically enlarges with the same size during the search process, and the overlapping individuals among different subareas work for delivering information acting as exploring the search space with diffusion of solutions. Moreover, a Gaussian-based search equation with redefined local attractor is proposed to further accelerate the diffusion of the best solution and guide the search towards potential areas. Experimental results on a set of benchmarks demonstrate the competitive performance of our proposed approach.

  7. The dynamics of change in decision making under risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milićević Aleksandar

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The goal of this study was to investigate the dynamics of decision making under risk. In three experiments this dynamics have been explored with respect to probability of outcome and with respect to frame, i.e. the way the outcomes of the alternatives have been specified. The process of decision making was explored within a framework of expected utility and Prospect theory. The outcomes of alternatives as well as their probabilities were quantitatively specified (so that the expected value of a risk alternative was equal to the value of a non-risk alternative. The results of experiments indicate that the attitude towards risk (risk-proneness vs. risk-averseness depends on the outcome probability and the way the outcomes were specified (i.e. positive/negative frame. It was also demonstrated that content strongly affects the choices made in decision making. This outcome is somewhat unexpected and requires additional empirical evaluation.

  8. DYNAMIC HYBRIDS UNDER SOLVENCY II: RISK ANALYSIS AND MODIFICATION POSSIBILITIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Maier

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we investigate the new and standardized European system of supervisory called Solvency II. In essence, asymmetric distribution of information between policyholder and insurer triggered this new regulation which aims at better protecting policyholders. Its three-pillar model is about to challenge both, insurers as well as policyholders. The first pillar includes quantitative aspects, the second pillar contains qualitative aspects and the third pillar comprises market transparency and reporting obligations. Underwriting risks, the default risk of a bank and market risks can be identified for the dynamic hybrid. Solvency II covers all these risks in the first pillar and insurers shall deposit sufficient risk-bearing capital. In our analysis, we first identify the dynamic hybrid specific risks under the Solvency II regime und then develop product modifications to reduce this risk.

  9. Control of articulated snake robot under dynamic active constraints.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwok, Ka-Wai; Vitiello, Valentina; Yang, Guang-Zhong

    2010-01-01

    Flexible, ergonomically enhanced surgical robots have important applications to transluminal endoscopic surgery, for which path-following and dynamic shape conformance are essential. In this paper, kinematic control of a snake robot for motion stabilisation under dynamic active constraints is addressed. The main objective is to enable the robot to track the visual target accurately and steadily on deforming tissue whilst conforming to pre-defined anatomical constraints. The motion tracking can also be augmented with manual control. By taking into account the physical limits in terms of maximum frequency response of the system (manifested as a delay between the input of the manipulator and the movement of the end-effector), we show the importance of visual-motor synchronisation for performing accurate smooth pursuit movements. Detailed user experiments are performed to demonstrate the practical value of the proposed control mechanism.

  10. Modeling population dynamics of solitary bees in relation to habitat quality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Ulbrich

    2001-09-01

    Full Text Available To understand associations between habitat, individual behaviour, and population development of solitary bees we developed an individual-based model. This model is based on field observations of Osmia rufa (L (Apoideae: Megachilidae and describes population dynamics of solitary bees. Model rules are focused on maternal investment, in particular on the female’s individual decisions about sex and size of progeny. In the present paper, we address the effect of habitat quality on population size and sex ratio. We examine how food availability and the risk of parasitism influence long-term population development. It can be shown how population properties result from individual maternal investment which is described as a functional response to fluctuations of environmental conditions. We found that habitat quality can be expressed in terms of cell construction time. This interface factor influences the rate of open cell parasitism as the risk for a brood cell to be parasitized is positively correlated with the time of its construction. Under conditions of scarce food and under resulting long provision times even low parasitism rates lead to a high extinction risk of the population, whereas in rich habitats probabilities of extinction are low even for high rates of parasitism. For a given level of food and parasitism there is an optimum time for cell construction which minimizes the extinction risk of the population. Model results demonstrate that under fluctuating environmental conditions, decreasing habitat quality leads to a decrease in population size but also to rapid shifts in sex ratio.

  11. On the stochastic approach to marine population dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo Ferrandis

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to deepen and structure the statistical basis of marine population dynamics. The starting point is the correspondence between the concepts of mortality, survival and lifetime distribution. This is the kernel of the possibilities that survival analysis techniques offer to marine population dynamics. A rigorous definition of survival and mortality based on their properties and their probabilistic versions is briefly presented. Some well established models for lifetime distribution, which generalise the usual simple exponential distribution, might be used with their corresponding survivals and mortalities. A critical review of some published models is also made, including original models proposed in the way opened by Caddy (1991 and Sparholt (1990, which allow for a continuously decreasing natural mortality. Considering these elements, the pure death process dealt with in the literature is used as a theoretical basis for the evolution of a marine cohort. The elaboration of this process is based on Chiang´s study of the probability distribution of the life table (Chiang, 1960 and provides specific structured models for stock evolution as a Markovian process. These models may introduce new ideas in the line of thinking developed by Gudmundsson (1987 and Sampson (1990 in order to model the evolution of a marine cohort by stochastic processes. The suitable approximation of these processes by means of Gaussian processes may allow theoretical and computational multivariate Gaussian analysis to be applied to the probabilistic treatment of fisheries issues. As a consequence, the necessary catch equation appears as a stochastic integral with respect to the mentioned Markovian process of the stock. The solution of this equation is available when the mortalities are proportional, hence the use of the proportional hazards model (Cox, 1959. The assumption of these proportional mortalities leads naturally to the construction of a

  12. Effect of the alien invasive bivalve Corbicula fluminea on the nutrient dynamics under climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coelho, J. P.; Lillebø, A. I.; Crespo, D.; Leston, S.; Dolbeth, M.

    2018-05-01

    The main aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of the alien invasive bivalve Corbicula fluminea (Müller, 1774) in the nutrient dynamics of temperate estuarine systems (oligohaline areas) under climate change scenarios. The scenarios simulated shifts in climatic conditions, following salinity (0 or 5) and temperature (24 or 30 °C) changes, usual during drought and heat wave events. The effect of the individual size/age (different size classes with fixed biomass) and density (various densities of <1 cm clams) on the bioturbation-associated nutrient dynamics were also evaluated under an 18-day laboratory experimental setup. Results highlight the significant effect of C. fluminea on the ecosystem nutrient dynamics, enhancing the efflux of both phosphate and dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) from the sediments to the water column. Both drought and heat wave events will have an impact on the DIN dynamics within C. fluminea colonized systems, favouring a higher NH4-N efflux. The population structure of C. fluminea will have a decisive role on the impact of the species, with stronger nutrient effluxes associated with a predominantly juvenile population structure.

  13. Stress Distribution in Graded Cellular Materials Under Dynamic Compression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peng Wang

    Full Text Available Abstract Dynamic compression behaviors of density-homogeneous and density-graded irregular honeycombs are investigated using cell-based finite element models under a constant-velocity impact scenario. A method based on the cross-sectional engineering stress is developed to obtain the one-dimensional stress distribution along the loading direction in a cellular specimen. The cross-sectional engineering stress is contributed by two parts: the node-transitive stress and the contact-induced stress, which are caused by the nodal force and the contact of cell walls, respectively. It is found that the contact-induced stress is dominant for the significantly enhanced stress behind the shock front. The stress enhancement and the compaction wave propagation can be observed through the stress distributions in honeycombs under high-velocity compression. The single and double compaction wave modes are observed directly from the stress distributions. Theoretical analysis of the compaction wave propagation in the density-graded honeycombs based on the R-PH (rigid-plastic hardening idealization is carried out and verified by the numerical simulations. It is found that stress distribution in cellular materials and the compaction wave propagation characteristics under dynamic compression can be approximately predicted by the R-PH shock model.

  14. Evolutionary game dynamics in a growing structured population

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Poncela, Julia; Gomez-Gardenes, Jesus; Moreno, Yamir [Institute for Biocomputation and Physics of Complex Systems (BIFI), University of Zaragoza, E-50009 Zaragoza (Spain); Traulsen, Arne [Emmy-Noether Group for Evolutionary Dynamics, Department of Evolutionary Ecology, Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Biology, August-Thienemann-Strasse 2, 24306 Ploen (Germany)], E-mail: traulsen@evolbio.mpg.de

    2009-08-15

    We discuss a model for evolutionary game dynamics in a growing, network-structured population. In our model, new players can either make connections to random preexisting players or preferentially attach to those that have been successful in the past. The latter depends on the dynamics of strategies in the game, which we implement following the so-called Fermi rule such that the limits of weak and strong strategy selection can be explored. Our framework allows to address general evolutionary games. With only two parameters describing the preferential attachment and the intensity of selection, we describe a wide range of network structures and evolutionary scenarios. Our results show that even for moderate payoff preferential attachment, over represented hubs arise. Interestingly, we find that while the networks are growing, high levels of cooperation are attained, but the same network structure does not promote cooperation as a static network. Therefore, the mechanism of payoff preferential attachment is different to those usually invoked to explain the promotion of cooperation in static, already-grown networks.

  15. Evolutionary game dynamics in a growing structured population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poncela, Julia; Gomez-Gardenes, Jesus; Moreno, Yamir; Traulsen, Arne

    2009-01-01

    We discuss a model for evolutionary game dynamics in a growing, network-structured population. In our model, new players can either make connections to random preexisting players or preferentially attach to those that have been successful in the past. The latter depends on the dynamics of strategies in the game, which we implement following the so-called Fermi rule such that the limits of weak and strong strategy selection can be explored. Our framework allows to address general evolutionary games. With only two parameters describing the preferential attachment and the intensity of selection, we describe a wide range of network structures and evolutionary scenarios. Our results show that even for moderate payoff preferential attachment, over represented hubs arise. Interestingly, we find that while the networks are growing, high levels of cooperation are attained, but the same network structure does not promote cooperation as a static network. Therefore, the mechanism of payoff preferential attachment is different to those usually invoked to explain the promotion of cooperation in static, already-grown networks.

  16. Isoenzymatic variability in tropical maize populations under reciprocal recurrent selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pinto Luciana Rossini

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Maize (Zea mays L. is one of the crops in which the genetic variability has been extensively studied at isoenzymatic loci. The genetic variability of the maize populations BR-105 and BR-106, and the synthetics IG-3 and IG-4, obtained after one cycle of a high-intensity reciprocal recurrent selection (RRS, was investigated at seven isoenzymatic loci. A total of twenty alleles were identified, and most of the private alleles were found in the BR-106 population. One cycle of reciprocal recurrent selection (RRS caused reductions of 12% in the number of alleles in both populations. Changes in allele frequencies were also observed between populations and synthetics, mainly for the Est 2 locus. Populations presented similar values for the number of alleles per locus, percentage of polymorphic loci, and observed and expected heterozygosities. A decrease of the genetic variation values was observed for the synthetics as a consequence of genetic drift effects and reduction of the effective population sizes. The distribution of the genetic diversity within and between populations revealed that most of the diversity was maintained within them, i.e. BR-105 x BR-106 (G ST = 3.5% and IG-3 x IG-4 (G ST = 4.0%. The genetic distances between populations and synthetics increased approximately 21%. An increase in the genetic divergence between the populations occurred without limiting new selection procedures.

  17. Population dynamics of Vibrio fischeri during infection of Euprymna scolopes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCann, Jessica; Stabb, Eric V; Millikan, Deborah S; Ruby, Edward G

    2003-10-01

    The luminous bacterium Vibrio fischeri colonizes a specialized light-emitting organ within its squid host, Euprymna scolopes. Newly hatched juvenile squid must acquire their symbiont from ambient seawater, where the bacteria are present at low concentrations. To understand the population dynamics of V. fischeri during colonization more fully, we used mini-Tn7 transposons to mark bacteria with antibiotic resistance so that the growth of their progeny could be monitored. When grown in culture, there was no detectable metabolic burden on V. fischeri cells carrying the transposon, which inserts in single copy in a specific intergenic region of the V. fischeri genome. Strains marked with mini-Tn7 also appeared to be equivalent to the wild type in their ability to infect and multiply within the host during coinoculation experiments. Studies of the early stages of colonization suggested that only a few bacteria became associated with symbiotic tissue when animals were exposed for a discrete period (3 h) to an inoculum of V. fischeri cells equivalent to natural population levels; nevertheless, all these hosts became infected. When three differentially marked strains of V. fischeri were coincubated with juvenile squid, the number of strains recovered from an individual symbiotic organ was directly dependent on the size of the inoculum. Further, these results indicated that, when exposed to low numbers of V. fischeri, the host may become colonized by only one or a few bacterial cells, suggesting that symbiotic infection is highly efficient.

  18. The tank's dynamic response under nuclear explosion blast wave

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu Mei; Wang Lianghou; Li Xiaotian; Yu Suyuan; Zhang Zhengming; Wan Li

    2005-01-01

    To weapons and equipment, blast wave is the primary destructive factor. In this paper, taken the real model-59 tank as an example, we try to transform the damage estimation problem into computing a fluid structure interaction problem with finite element method. The response of tank under nuclear explosion blast wave is computed with the general-coupling algorithm. Also, the dynamical interaction of blast wave and tank is reflected in real time. The deformation of each part of the tank is worked out and the result corresponds to the real-measured data. (authors)

  19. A hypothetical study of populations under constant mortality and fertility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, R B

    1976-03-01

    28 countries with different characteristics have been selected in order to observe the amount of time it takes for these different countries to reach stable age distributions. The individual populations by sex and age were projected for 150 years in 5-year intervals with the present constant mortality and fertility schedules by component method. Observations have been made by considering the following characteristics of population when it has acquired stability: age distribution; the rate of growth, birthrate, and mortality rate; the population change; the intrinsic rate of growth, birthrate and mortality rate; and approximate time taken to stabilize the population. The initial age distribution has a significant part in the amount of time it takes for a population to acquire stability, and its intrinsic rate of growth is mostly dependent upon the existing age distribution of that population. The time taken for a country's population to become stable depends upon the age distribution, fertility and mortality schedules at the beginning. It has been observed that countries having a higher intrinsic rate of growth take comparatively less time in acquiring stability than the countries having a lower intrinsic rate of growth. The mortality and fertility schedules of a country is another important phenomenon. The populations of the different countries at the point of stability were growing according to their rates of growth. No specific trend of population growth could be found among the groups of countries. Time taken for stabilizing the population is completely based upon age distributions, fertility and mortality schedules a particular country was having at the beginning. The range of time taken for different countries to acquire stability generally ranged from 100 to 135 years. Among the different countries the relationship for the time it takes to acquire stability has not been established. This is a hypothetical approach in order to obtain some idea as to how a

  20. Population dynamics and evolutionary history of the weedy vine Ipomoea hederacea in North America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campitelli, Brandon E; Stinchcombe, John R

    2014-06-03

    Disentangling the historical evolutionary processes that contribute to patterns of phenotypic and genetic variation is important for understanding contemporary patterns of both traits of interest and genetic diversity of a species. Ipomoea hederacea is a self-compatible species whose geographic origin is contested, and previous work suggests that although there are signals of adaptation (significant leaf shape and flowering time clines), no population structure or neutral genetic differentiation of I. hederacea populations was detected. Here, we use DNA sequence data to characterize patterns of genetic variation to establish a more detailed understanding of the current and historical processes that may have generated the patterns of genetic variation in this species. We resequenced ca. 5000 bp across 7 genes for 192 individuals taken from 24 populations in North America. Our results indicate that North American I. hederacea populations are ubiquitously genetically depauperate, and patterns of nucleotide diversity are consistent with population expansion. Contrary to previous findings, we discovered significant population subdivision and isolation-by-distance, but genetic structure was spatially discontinuous, potentially implicating long-distance dispersal. We further found significant genetic differentiation at sequenced loci but nearly fourfold stronger differentiation at the leaf shape locus, strengthening evidence that the leaf shape locus is under divergent selection. We propose that North American I. hederacea has experienced a recent founder event, and/or population dynamics are best described by a metapopulation model (high turnover and dispersal), leading to low genetic diversity and a patchy genetic distribution. Copyright © 2014 Campitelli and Stinchcombe.

  1. A necessary condition for dispersal driven growth of populations with discrete patch dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guiver, Chris; Packman, David; Townley, Stuart

    2017-07-07

    We revisit the question of when can dispersal-induced coupling between discrete sink populations cause overall population growth? Such a phenomenon is called dispersal driven growth and provides a simple explanation of how dispersal can allow populations to persist across discrete, spatially heterogeneous, environments even when individual patches are adverse or unfavourable. For two classes of mathematical models, one linear and one non-linear, we provide necessary conditions for dispersal driven growth in terms of the non-existence of a common linear Lyapunov function, which we describe. Our approach draws heavily upon the underlying positive dynamical systems structure. Our results apply to both discrete- and continuous-time models. The theory is illustrated with examples and both biological and mathematical conclusions are drawn. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  2. Population dynamics of caribou herds in southwestern Alaska

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick Valkenburg

    2003-04-01

    Full Text Available The five naturally occurring and one transplanted caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti herd in southwestern Alaska composed about 20% of Alaska's caribou population in 2001. All five of the naturally occurring herds fluctuated considerably in size between the late 1800s and 2001 and for some herds the data provide an indication of long-term periodic (40-50 year fluctuations. At the present time, the Unimak (UCH and Southern Alaska Peninsula (SAP are recovering from population declines, the Northern Alaska Peninsula Herd (NAP appears to be nearing the end of a protracted decline, and the Mulchatna Herd (MCH appears to now be declining after 20 years of rapid growth. The remaining naturally occurring herd (Kilbuck has virtually disappeared. Nutrition had a significant effect on the size of 4-month-old and 10-month-old calves in the NAP and the Nushagak Peninsula Herd (NPCH and probably also on population growth in at least 4 (SAP, NAP, NPCH, and MCH of the six caribou herds in southwestern Alaska. Predation does not appear to be sufficient to keep caribou herds in southwestern Alaska from expanding, probably because rabies is endemic in red foxes (Vulpes vulpes and is periodically transferred to wolves (Canis lupus and other canids. However, we found evidence that pneumonia and hoof rot may result in significant mortality of caribou in southwestern Alaska, whereas there is no evidence that disease is important in the dynamics of Interior herds. Cooperative conservation programs, such as the Kilbuck Caribou Management Plan, can be successful in restraining traditional harvest and promoting growth in caribou herds. In southwestern Alaska we also found evidence that small caribou herds can be swamped and assimilated by large herds, and fidelity to traditional calving areas can be lost.

  3. Modelling multi-pulse population dynamics from ultrafast spectroscopy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luuk J G W van Wilderen

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Current advanced laser, optics and electronics technology allows sensitive recording of molecular dynamics, from single resonance to multi-colour and multi-pulse experiments. Extracting the occurring (bio- physical relevant pathways via global analysis of experimental data requires a systematic investigation of connectivity schemes. Here we present a Matlab-based toolbox for this purpose. The toolbox has a graphical user interface which facilitates the application of different reaction models to the data to generate the coupled differential equations. Any time-dependent dataset can be analysed to extract time-independent correlations of the observables by using gradient or direct search methods. Specific capabilities (i.e. chirp and instrument response function for the analysis of ultrafast pump-probe spectroscopic data are included. The inclusion of an extra pulse that interacts with a transient phase can help to disentangle complex interdependent pathways. The modelling of pathways is therefore extended by new theory (which is included in the toolbox that describes the finite bleach (orientation effect of single and multiple intense polarised femtosecond pulses on an ensemble of randomly oriented particles in the presence of population decay. For instance, the generally assumed flat-top multimode beam profile is adapted to a more realistic Gaussian shape, exposing the need for several corrections for accurate anisotropy measurements. In addition, the (selective excitation (photoselection and anisotropy of populations that interact with single or multiple intense polarised laser pulses is demonstrated as function of power density and beam profile. Using example values of real world experiments it is calculated to what extent this effectively orients the ensemble of particles. Finally, the implementation includes the interaction with multiple pulses in addition to depth averaging in optically dense samples. In summary, we show that mathematical

  4. Modelling multi-pulse population dynamics from ultrafast spectroscopy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Wilderen, Luuk J G W; Lincoln, Craig N; van Thor, Jasper J

    2011-03-21

    Current advanced laser, optics and electronics technology allows sensitive recording of molecular dynamics, from single resonance to multi-colour and multi-pulse experiments. Extracting the occurring (bio-) physical relevant pathways via global analysis of experimental data requires a systematic investigation of connectivity schemes. Here we present a Matlab-based toolbox for this purpose. The toolbox has a graphical user interface which facilitates the application of different reaction models to the data to generate the coupled differential equations. Any time-dependent dataset can be analysed to extract time-independent correlations of the observables by using gradient or direct search methods. Specific capabilities (i.e. chirp and instrument response function) for the analysis of ultrafast pump-probe spectroscopic data are included. The inclusion of an extra pulse that interacts with a transient phase can help to disentangle complex interdependent pathways. The modelling of pathways is therefore extended by new theory (which is included in the toolbox) that describes the finite bleach (orientation) effect of single and multiple intense polarised femtosecond pulses on an ensemble of randomly oriented particles in the presence of population decay. For instance, the generally assumed flat-top multimode beam profile is adapted to a more realistic Gaussian shape, exposing the need for several corrections for accurate anisotropy measurements. In addition, the (selective) excitation (photoselection) and anisotropy of populations that interact with single or multiple intense polarised laser pulses is demonstrated as function of power density and beam profile. Using example values of real world experiments it is calculated to what extent this effectively orients the ensemble of particles. Finally, the implementation includes the interaction with multiple pulses in addition to depth averaging in optically dense samples. In summary, we show that mathematical modelling is

  5. Dynamics of spins in semiconductor quantum wells under drift

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Idrish Miah, M.

    2009-01-01

    The dynamics of spins in semiconductor quantum wells under applied electric bias has been investigated by photoluminescence (PL) spectroscopy. The bias-dependent polarization of PL (P PL ) was measured at different temperatures. The P PL was found to decay with an enhancement of increasing the strength of the negative bias, with an exception occurred for a low value of the negative bias. The P PL was also found to depend on the temperature. The P PL in the presence of a transverse magnetic field was also studied. The results showed that P PL in the magnetic field oscillates under an applied bias, demonstrating that the dephasing of electron spin occurs during the drift transport in semiconductor quantum wells.

  6. Dynamics of spins in semiconductor quantum wells under drift

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Idrish Miah, M., E-mail: m.miah@griffith.edu.a [Nanoscale Science and Technology Centre, Griffith University, Nathan, Brisbane, QLD 4111 (Australia); School of Biomolecular and Physical Sciences, Griffith University, Nathan, Brisbane, QLD 4111 (Australia); Department of Physics, University of Chittagong, Chittagong 4331 (Bangladesh)

    2009-09-15

    The dynamics of spins in semiconductor quantum wells under applied electric bias has been investigated by photoluminescence (PL) spectroscopy. The bias-dependent polarization of PL (P{sub PL}) was measured at different temperatures. The P{sub PL} was found to decay with an enhancement of increasing the strength of the negative bias, with an exception occurred for a low value of the negative bias. The P{sub PL} was also found to depend on the temperature. The P{sub PL} in the presence of a transverse magnetic field was also studied. The results showed that P{sub PL} in the magnetic field oscillates under an applied bias, demonstrating that the dephasing of electron spin occurs during the drift transport in semiconductor quantum wells.

  7. Dynamics of Solid Body in Magnetic Suspension under Periodic Excitation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. M. Gouskov

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The article studies dynamics of ferromagnetic body in hybrid magnetic suspension (HMS. The body is supposed to have one degree of freedom and a nonlinear magnetic force dependence on the current and displacement. The magnetic force induced in the HMS is divided into a passive component and an active one. Specifying the law of current variation in the coil allows us to generate nonlinear oscillations under electromagnet action. To provide periodic excitation the appropriate law of the current variation in the electromagnet coil is proposed. The mathematical model includes external periodic step-excitation. The equation of motion is formed. The scales of similarity are highlighted in the system, and the equation of motion is reduced to dimensionless form.The motion dynamics is studied numerically. The relaxation method was used to determine the periodic motions at different values of dimensionless frequency of the electromagnet excitation as well as to estimate the influence of other dimensionless parameters on the system dynamics. The amplitude-frequency curve analysis allows us to come to conclusion that the nature of system nonlinearity is rigid. Adding the external periodic step-excitation leads to the qualitative change in the nature of movement. This points to the occurrence of bifurcation.

  8. Stock price dynamics and option valuations under volatility feedback effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanniainen, Juho; Piché, Robert

    2013-02-01

    According to the volatility feedback effect, an unexpected increase in squared volatility leads to an immediate decline in the price-dividend ratio. In this paper, we consider the properties of stock price dynamics and option valuations under the volatility feedback effect by modeling the joint dynamics of stock price, dividends, and volatility in continuous time. Most importantly, our model predicts the negative effect of an increase in squared return volatility on the value of deep-in-the-money call options and, furthermore, attempts to explain the volatility puzzle. We theoretically demonstrate a mechanism by which the market price of diffusion return risk, or an equity risk-premium, affects option prices and empirically illustrate how to identify that mechanism using forward-looking information on option contracts. Our theoretical and empirical results support the relevance of the volatility feedback effect. Overall, the results indicate that the prevailing practice of ignoring the time-varying dividend yield in option pricing can lead to oversimplification of the stock market dynamics.

  9. Cone Algorithm of Spinning Vehicles under Dynamic Coning Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuang-biao Zhang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Due to the fact that attitude error of vehicles has an intense trend of divergence when vehicles undergo worsening coning environment, in this paper, the model of dynamic coning environment is derived firstly. Then, through investigation of the effect on Euler attitude algorithm for the equivalency of traditional attitude algorithm, it is found that attitude error is actually the roll angle error including drifting error and oscillating error, which is induced directly by dynamic coning environment and further affects the pitch angle and yaw angle through transferring. Based on definition of the cone frame and cone attitude, a cone algorithm is proposed by rotation relationship to calculate cone attitude, and the relationship between cone attitude and Euler attitude of spinning vehicle is established. Through numerical simulations with different conditions of dynamic coning environment, it is shown that the induced error of Euler attitude fluctuates by the variation of precession and nutation, especially by that of nutation, and the oscillating frequency of roll angle error is twice that of pitch angle error and yaw angle error. In addition, the rotation angle is more competent to describe the spinning process of vehicles under coning environment than Euler angle gamma, and the real pitch angle and yaw angle are calculated finally.

  10. Numerical evaluation of cracked pipes under dynamic loading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petit, M.; Jamet, P.

    1989-01-01

    In order to apply the leak-before-break concept to piping systems, the behavior of cracked pipes under dynamic, and especially seismic, loadings must be studied. A simple finite element model of a cracked pipe has been developed and implemented in the general purpose computer code CASTEM 2000. The model is a generalization of the approach proposed by Paris and Tada (1). Considered loads are bending moment and axial force (representing thermal expansion and internal pressure.) The elastic characteristics of the model are determined using the Zahoor formulae for the geometry-dependent factors. Owing to the material behabior plasticity must be taken into account. To represent the crack growth, the material is defined by two characteristic values: J 1c which is the level of energy corresponding to crack initiation and the tearing modulus, T, which governs the length of propagation of the crack. For dynamic loads, unilateral conditions are imposed to represent crack closure. The model has been used for the design of dynamic tests to be conducted on shaking tables. Test principle is briefly described and numerical results are presented. Finally evaluation of margin, due to plasticity, in comparison with the standard design procedure is made

  11. Population extinction under bursty reproduction in a time-modulated environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilk, Ohad; Assaf, Michael

    2018-06-01

    In recent years nondemographic variability has been shown to greatly affect dynamics of stochastic populations. For example, nondemographic noise in the form of a bursty reproduction process with an a priori unknown burst size, or environmental variability in the form of time-varying reaction rates, have been separately found to dramatically impact the extinction risk of isolated populations. In this work we investigate the extinction risk of an isolated population under the combined influence of these two types of nondemographic variation. Using the so-called momentum-space Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin (WKB) approach and accounting for the explicit time dependence in the reaction rates, we arrive at a set of time-dependent Hamilton equations. To this end, we evaluate the population's extinction risk by finding the instanton of the time-perturbed Hamiltonian numerically, whereas analytical expressions are presented in particular limits using various perturbation techniques. We focus on two classes of time-varying environments: periodically varying rates corresponding to seasonal effects and a sudden decrease in the birth rate corresponding to a catastrophe. All our theoretical results are tested against numerical Monte Carlo simulations with time-dependent rates and also against a numerical solution of the corresponding time-dependent Hamilton equations.

  12. Phase control of light amplification with dynamically irreversible pathways of population transfer in a Λ system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuan Shi; Wu Jinhui; Gao Jinyue; Pan Chunliu

    2002-01-01

    We use the relative phase of two coherent fields for the control of light amplification with dynamically irreversible pathways of population transfer in a Λ system. The population inversion and gain with dynamically irreversible pathways of population transfer are shown as the relative phase is varied. We support our results by numerical calculation and analytical explanation

  13. Phenotypic plasticity despite source-sink population dynamics in a long-lived perennial plant.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Jill T; Sparks, Jed P; Geber, Monica A

    2010-11-01

    • Species that exhibit adaptive plasticity alter their phenotypes in response to environmental conditions, thereby maximizing fitness in heterogeneous landscapes. However, under demographic source-sink dynamics, selection should favor traits that enhance fitness in the source habitat at the expense of fitness in the marginal habitat. Consistent with source-sink dynamics, the perennial blueberry, Vaccinium elliottii (Ericaceae), shows substantially higher fitness and population sizes in dry upland forests than in flood-prone bottomland forests, and asymmetrical gene flow occurs from upland populations into bottomland populations. Here, we examined whether this species expresses plasticity to these distinct environments despite source-sink dynamics. • We assessed phenotypic responses to a complex environmental gradient in the field and to water stress in the glasshouse. • Contrary to expectations, V. elliottii exhibited a high degree of plasticity in foliar and root traits (specific leaf area, carbon isotope ratios, foliar nitrogen content, root : shoot ratio, root porosity and root architecture). • We propose that plasticity can be maintained in source-sink systems if it is favored within the source habitat and/or a phylogenetic artifact that is not costly. Additionally, plasticity could be advantageous if habitat-based differences in fitness result from incipient niche expansion. Our results illuminate the importance of evaluating phenotypic traits and fitness components across heterogeneous landscapes. © The Authors (2010). Journal compilation © New Phytologist Trust (2010).

  14. Training set optimization under population structure in genomic selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isidro, Julio; Jannink, Jean-Luc; Akdemir, Deniz; Poland, Jesse; Heslot, Nicolas; Sorrells, Mark E

    2015-01-01

    Population structure must be evaluated before optimization of the training set population. Maximizing the phenotypic variance captured by the training set is important for optimal performance. The optimization of the training set (TRS) in genomic selection has received much interest in both animal and plant breeding, because it is critical to the accuracy of the prediction models. In this study, five different TRS sampling algorithms, stratified sampling, mean of the coefficient of determination (CDmean), mean of predictor error variance (PEVmean), stratified CDmean (StratCDmean) and random sampling, were evaluated for prediction accuracy in the presence of different levels of population structure. In the presence of population structure, the most phenotypic variation captured by a sampling method in the TRS is desirable. The wheat dataset showed mild population structure, and CDmean and stratified CDmean methods showed the highest accuracies for all the traits except for test weight and heading date. The rice dataset had strong population structure and the approach based on stratified sampling showed the highest accuracies for all traits. In general, CDmean minimized the relationship between genotypes in the TRS, maximizing the relationship between TRS and the test set. This makes it suitable as an optimization criterion for long-term selection. Our results indicated that the best selection criterion used to optimize the TRS seems to depend on the interaction of trait architecture and population structure.

  15. Nonlinear dynamics in a business-cycle model with logistic population growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brianzoni, Serena; Mammana, Cristiana; Michetti, Elisabetta

    2009-01-01

    We consider a discrete-time growth model of the Solow type where workers and shareholders have different but constant saving rates and the population growth dynamics is described by the logistic equation able to exhibit complicated dynamics. We show conditions for the resulting system having a compact global attractor and we describe its structure. We also perform a mainly numerical analysis using the critical lines method able to describe the strange attractor and the absorbing area, in order to show how cyclical or complex fluctuations may be produced in a business-cycle model. We study the dynamic behaviour of the model under different ranges of the main parameters, i.e. the elasticity of substitution between the two production factors and the one in the logistic equation (namely μ). We prove the existence of complex dynamics when the elasticity of substitution between production factors drops below one (so that capital income declines) or μ increases (so that the amplitude of movements in the population growth rate increases).

  16. Incremental Dynamic Analysis of Koyna Dam under Repeated Ground Motions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zainab Nik Azizan, Nik; Majid, Taksiah A.; Nazri, Fadzli Mohamed; Maity, Damodar; Abdullah, Junaidah

    2018-03-01

    This paper discovers the incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) of concrete gravity dam under single and repeated earthquake loadings to identify the limit state of the dam. Seven ground motions with horizontal and vertical direction as seismic input considered in the nonlinear dynamic analysis based on the real repeated earthquake in the worldwide. All the ground motions convert to respond spectrum and scaled according to the developed elastic respond spectrum in order to match the characteristic of the ground motion to the soil type. The scaled was depends on the fundamental period, T1 of the dam. The Koyna dam has been selected as a case study for the purpose of the analysis by assuming that no sliding and rigid foundation, has been estimated. IDA curves for Koyna dam developed for single and repeated ground motions and the performance level of the dam identifies. The IDA curve of repeated ground motion shown stiffer rather than single ground motion. The ultimate state displacement for a single event is 45.59mm and decreased to 39.33mm under repeated events which are decreased about 14%. This showed that the performance level of the dam based on seismic loadings depend on ground motion pattern.

  17. Polar bear population dynamics in the southern Beaufort Sea during a period of sea ice decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bromaghin, Jeffrey F; Mcdonald, Trent L; Stirling, Ian; Derocher, Andrew E; Richardson, Evan S; Regehr, Eric V; Douglas, David C; Durner, George M; Atwood, Todd; Amstrup, Steven C

    2015-04-01

    In the southern Beaufort Sea of the United States and Canada, prior investigations have linked declines in summer sea ice to reduced physical condition, growth, and survival of polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Combined with projections of population decline due to continued climate warming and the ensuing loss of sea ice habitat, those findings contributed to the 2008 decision to list the species as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Here, we used mark-recapture models to investigate the population dynamics of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea from 2001 to 2010, years during which the spatial and temporal extent of summer sea ice generally declined. Low survival from 2004 through 2006 led to a 25-50% decline in abundance. We hypothesize that low survival during this period resulted from (1) unfavorable ice conditions that limited access to prey during multiple seasons; and possibly, (2) low prey abundance. For reasons that are not clear, survival of adults and cubs began to improve in 2007 and abundance was comparatively stable from 2008 to 2010, with ~900 bears in 2010 (90% CI 606-1212). However, survival of subadult bears declined throughout the entire period. Reduced spatial and temporal availability of sea ice is expected to increasingly force population dynamics of polar bears as the climate continues to warm. However, in the short term, our findings suggest that factors other than sea ice can influence survival. A refined understanding of the ecological mechanisms underlying polar bear population dynamics is necessary to improve projections of their future status and facilitate development of management strategies.

  18. Polar bear population dynamics in the southern Beaufort Sea during a period of sea ice decline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bromaghin, Jeffrey F.; McDonald, Trent L.; Stirling, Ian; Derocher, Andrew E.; Richardson, Evan S.; Regehr, Eric V.; Douglas, David C.; Durner, George M.; Atwood, Todd C.; Amstrup, Steven C.

    2015-01-01

    In the southern Beaufort Sea of the United States and Canada, prior investigations have linked declines in summer sea ice to reduced physical condition, growth, and survival of polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Combined with projections of population decline due to continued climate warming and the ensuing loss of sea ice habitat, those findings contributed to the 2008 decision to list the species as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Here, we used mark–recapture models to investigate the population dynamics of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea from 2001 to 2010, years during which the spatial and temporal extent of summer sea ice generally declined. Low survival from 2004 through 2006 led to a 25–50% decline in abundance. We hypothesize that low survival during this period resulted from (1) unfavorable ice conditions that limited access to prey during multiple seasons; and possibly, (2) low prey abundance. For reasons that are not clear, survival of adults and cubs began to improve in 2007 and abundance was comparatively stable from 2008 to 2010, with ~900 bears in 2010 (90% CI 606–1212). However, survival of subadult bears declined throughout the entire period. Reduced spatial and temporal availability of sea ice is expected to increasingly force population dynamics of polar bears as the climate continues to warm. However, in the short term, our findings suggest that factors other than sea ice can influence survival. A refined understanding of the ecological mechanisms underlying polar bear population dynamics is necessary to improve projections of their future status and facilitate development of management strategies.

  19. Human population and atmospheric carbon dioxide growth dynamics: Diagnostics for the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hüsler, A. D.; Sornette, D.

    2014-10-01

    We analyze the growth rates of human population and of atmospheric carbon dioxide by comparing the relative merits of two benchmark models, the exponential law and the finite-time-singular (FTS) power law. The later results from positive feedbacks, either direct or mediated by other dynamical variables, as shown in our presentation of a simple endogenous macroeconomic dynamical growth model describing the growth dynamics of coupled processes involving human population (labor in economic terms), capital and technology (proxies by CO2 emissions). Human population in the context of our energy intensive economies constitutes arguably the most important underlying driving variable of the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Using some of the best databases available, we perform empirical analyses confirming that the human population on Earth has been growing super-exponentially until the mid-1960s, followed by a decelerated sub-exponential growth, with a tendency to plateau at just an exponential growth in the last decade with an average growth rate of 1.0% per year. In contrast, we find that the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has continued to accelerate super-exponentially until 1990, with a transition to a progressive deceleration since then, with an average growth rate of approximately 2% per year in the last decade. To go back to CO2 atmosphere contents equal to or smaller than the level of 1990 as has been the broadly advertised goals of international treaties since 1990 requires herculean changes: from a dynamical point of view, the approximately exponential growth must not only turn to negative acceleration but also negative velocity to reverse the trend.

  20. Dynamical Response of Networks Under External Perturbations: Exact Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chinellato, David D.; Epstein, Irving R.; Braha, Dan; Bar-Yam, Yaneer; de Aguiar, Marcus A. M.

    2015-04-01

    We give exact statistical distributions for the dynamic response of influence networks subjected to external perturbations. We consider networks whose nodes have two internal states labeled 0 and 1. We let nodes be frozen in state 0, in state 1, and the remaining nodes change by adopting the state of a connected node with a fixed probability per time step. The frozen nodes can be interpreted as external perturbations to the subnetwork of free nodes. Analytically extending and to be smaller than 1 enables modeling the case of weak coupling. We solve the dynamical equations exactly for fully connected networks, obtaining the equilibrium distribution, transition probabilities between any two states and the characteristic time to equilibration. Our exact results are excellent approximations for other topologies, including random, regular lattice, scale-free and small world networks, when the numbers of fixed nodes are adjusted to take account of the effect of topology on coupling to the environment. This model can describe a variety of complex systems, from magnetic spins to social networks to population genetics, and was recently applied as a framework for early warning signals for real-world self-organized economic market crises.

  1. Fitness decline under osmotic stress in Caenorhabditis elegans populations subjected to spontaneous mutation accumulation at varying population sizes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katju, Vaishali; Packard, Lucille B; Keightley, Peter D

    2018-04-01

    The consequences of mutations for population fitness depends on their individual selection coefficients and the effective population size. An earlier study of Caenorhabditis elegans spontaneous mutation accumulation lines evolved for 409 generations at three population sizes found that N e   = 1 populations declined significantly in fitness whereas the fitness of larger populations (N e   = 5, 50) was indistinguishable from the ancestral control under benign conditions. To test if larger MA populations harbor a load of cryptic deleterious mutations that are obscured under benign laboratory conditions, we measured fitness under osmotic stress via exposure to hypersaline conditions. The fitness of N e   = 1 lines exhibited a further decline under osmotic stress compared to benign conditions. However, the fitness of larger populations remained indistinguishable from that of the ancestral control. The average effects of deleterious mutations in N e   = 1 lines were estimated to be 22% for productivity and 14% for survivorship, exceeding values previously detected under benign conditions. Our results suggest that fitness decline is due to large effect mutations that are rapidly removed via selection even in small populations, with implications for conservation practices. Genetic stochasticity may not be as potent and immediate a threat to the persistence of small populations as other demographic and environmental stochastic factors. © 2018 The Author(s). Evolution © 2018 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  2. About a dynamic model of interaction of insect population with food plant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L.V. Nedorezov

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available In present paper there is the consideration of mathematical model of food plant (resource - consumer (insect population - pathogen system dynamics which is constructed as a system of ordinary differential equations. The dynamic regimes of model are analyzed and, in particular, with the help of numerical methods it is shown that trigger regimes (regimes with two stable attractors can be realized in model under very simple assumptions about ecological and intra-population processes functioning. Within the framework of model it was assumed that the rate of food flow into the system is constant and functioning of intra-population selfregulative mechanisms can be described by Verhulst model. As it was found, trigger regimes are different with respect to their properties: in particular, in model the trigger regimes with one of stable stationary points on the coordinate plane can be realized (it corresponds to the situation when sick individuals in population are absent and their appearance in small volume leads to their asymptotic elimination; also the regimes with several nonzero stationary states and stable periodic fluctuations were found.

  3. Population dynamics in the high Arctic: Climate variations in time and space

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hendrichsen, Ditte Katrine

    Climatic factors profoundly influence the population dynamics, species interactions and demography of Arctic species. Analyses of the spatio-temporal dynamics within and across species are therefore necessary to understand and predict the responses of Arctic ecosystems to climatic variability...

  4. A cat's tale: the impact of genetic restoration on Florida panther population dynamics and persistence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hostetler, Jeffrey A; Onorato, David P; Jansen, Deborah; Oli, Madan K

    2013-05-01

    1. Genetic restoration has been suggested as a management tool for mitigating detrimental effects of inbreeding depression in small, inbred populations, but the demographic mechanisms underlying population-level responses to genetic restoration remain poorly understood. 2. We studied the dynamics and persistence of the endangered Florida panther Puma concolor coryi population and evaluated the potential influence of genetic restoration on population growth and persistence parameters. As part of the genetic restoration programme, eight female Texas pumas P. c. stanleyana were released into Florida panther habitat in southern Florida in 1995. 3. The overall asymptotic population growth rate (λ) was 1.04 (5th and 95th percentiles: 0.95-1.14), suggesting an increase in the panther population of approximately 4% per year. Considering the effects of environmental and demographic stochasticities and density-dependence, the probability that the population will fall below 10 panthers within 100 years was 0.072 (0-0.606). 4. Our results suggest that the population would have declined at 5% per year (λ = 0.95; 0.83-1.08) in the absence of genetic restoration. Retrospective life table response experiment analysis revealed that the positive effect of genetic restoration on survival of kittens was primarily responsible for the substantial growth of the panther population that would otherwise have been declining. 5. For comparative purposes, we also estimated probability of quasi-extinction under two scenarios - implementation of genetic restoration and no genetic restoration initiative - using the estimated abundance of panthers in 1995, the year genetic restoration was initiated. Assuming no density-dependence, the probability that the panther population would fall below 10 panthers by 2010 was 0.098 (0.002-0.332) for the restoration scenario and 0.445 (0.032-0.944) for the no restoration scenario, providing further evidence that the panther population would have faced a

  5. Population dynamics of Borrelia burgdorferi in Lyme disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sebastian Christoph Binder

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Many chronic inflammatory diseases are known to be caused by persistent bacterial or viral infections. A well-studied example is the tick-borne infection by the gram-negative Spirochaetes of the genus Borrelia in humans and other mammals, causing severe symptoms of chronic inflammation and subsequent tissue damage (Lyme Disease, particularly in large joints and the central nervous system, but also in the heart and other tissues of untreated patients. Although killed efficiently by human phagocytic cells in vitro, Borrelia exhibits a remarkably high infectivity in mice and men. In experimentally infected mice, the first immune response almost clears the infection. However, approximately one week post infection, the bacterial population recovers and reaches an even larger size before entering the chronic phase. We developed a mathematical model describing the bacterial growth and the immune response against Borrelia burgdorferi in the C3H mouse strain that has been established as an experimental model for Lyme disease. The peculiar dynamics of the infection exclude two possible mechanistic explanations for the regrowth of the almost cleared bacteria. Neither the hypothesis of bacterial dissemination to different tissue nor a limitation of phagocytic capacity were compatible with experiment. The mathematical model predicts that Borrelia recovers from the strong initial immune response by the regrowth of an immune-resistant sub-population of the bacteria. The chronic phase appears as an equilibration of bacterial growth and adaptive immunity. This result has major implications for the development of the chronic phase of Borrelia infections as well as on potential protective clinical interventions.

  6. An individual-based probabilistic model for simulating fisheries population dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jie Cao

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of stock assessment is to support managers to provide intelligent decisions regarding removal from fish populations. Errors in assessment models may have devastating impacts on the population fitness and negative impacts on the economy of the resource users. Thus, accuracte estimations of population size, growth rates are critical for success. Evaluating and testing the behavior and performance of stock assessment models and assessing the consequences of model mis-specification and the impact of management strategies requires an operating model that accurately describe the dynamics of the target species, and can resolve spatial and seasonal changes. In addition, the most thorough evaluations of assessment models use an operating model that takes a different form than the assessment model. This paper presents an individual-based probabilistic model used to simulate the complex dynamics of populations and their associated fisheries. Various components of population dynamics are expressed as random Bernoulli trials in the model and detailed life and fishery histories of each individual are tracked over their life span. The simulation model is designed to be flexible so it can be used for different species and fisheries. It can simulate mixing among multiple stocks and link stock-recruit relationships to environmental factors. Furthermore, the model allows for flexibility in sub-models (e.g., growth and recruitment and model assumptions (e.g., age- or size-dependent selectivity. This model enables the user to conduct various simulation studies, including testing the performance of assessment models under different assumptions, assessing the impacts of model mis-specification and evaluating management strategies.

  7. Discrete two-sex models of population dynamics: On modelling the mating function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bessa-Gomes, Carmen; Legendre, Stéphane; Clobert, Jean

    2010-09-01

    Although sexual reproduction has long been a central subject of theoretical ecology, until recently its consequences for population dynamics were largely overlooked. This is now changing, and many studies have addressed this issue, showing that when the mating system is taken into account, the population dynamics depends on the relative abundance of males and females, and is non-linear. Moreover, sexual reproduction increases the extinction risk, namely due to the Allee effect. Nevertheless, different studies have identified diverse potential consequences, depending on the choice of mating function. In this study, we investigate the consequences of three alternative mating functions that are frequently used in discrete population models: the minimum; the harmonic mean; and the modified harmonic mean. We consider their consequences at three levels: on the probability that females will breed; on the presence and intensity of the Allee effect; and on the extinction risk. When we consider the harmonic mean, the number of times the individuals of the least abundant sex mate exceeds their mating potential, which implies that with variable sex-ratios the potential reproductive rate is no longer under the modeller's control. Consequently, the female breeding probability exceeds 1 whenever the sex-ratio is male-biased, which constitutes an obvious problem. The use of the harmonic mean is thus only justified if we think that this parameter should be re-defined in order to represent the females' breeding rate and the fact that females may reproduce more than once per breeding season. This phenomenon buffers the Allee effect, and reduces the extinction risk. However, when we consider birth-pulse populations, such a phenomenon is implausible because the number of times females can reproduce per birth season is limited. In general, the minimum or modified harmonic mean mating functions seem to be more suitable for assessing the impact of mating systems on population dynamics.

  8. More or less-On the influence of labelling strategies to infer cell population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabel, Michael; Regoes, Roland R; Graw, Frederik

    2017-01-01

    The adoptive transfer of labelled cell populations has been an essential tool to determine and quantify cellular dynamics. The experimental methods to label and track cells over time range from fluorescent dyes over congenic markers towards single-cell labelling techniques, such as genetic barcodes. While these methods have been widely used to quantify cell differentiation and division dynamics, the extent to which the applied labelling strategy actually affects the quantification of the dynamics has not been determined so far. This is especially important in situations where measurements can only be obtained at a single time point, as e.g. due to organ harvest. To this end, we studied the appropriateness of various labelling strategies as characterised by the number of different labels and the initial number of cells per label to quantify cellular dynamics. We simulated adoptive transfer experiments in systems of various complexity that assumed either homoeostatic cellular turnover or cell expansion dynamics involving various steps of cell differentiation and proliferation. Re-sampling cells at a single time point, we determined the ability of different labelling strategies to recover the underlying kinetics. Our results indicate that cell transition and expansion rates are differently affected by experimental shortcomings, such as loss of cells during transfer or sampling, dependent on the labelling strategy used. Furthermore, uniformly distributed labels in the transferred population generally lead to more robust and less biased results than non-equal label sizes. In addition, our analysis indicates that certain labelling approaches incorporate a systematic bias for the identification of complex cell expansion dynamics.

  9. More or less-On the influence of labelling strategies to infer cell population dynamics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Gabel

    Full Text Available The adoptive transfer of labelled cell populations has been an essential tool to determine and quantify cellular dynamics. The experimental methods to label and track cells over time range from fluorescent dyes over congenic markers towards single-cell labelling techniques, such as genetic barcodes. While these methods have been widely used to quantify cell differentiation and division dynamics, the extent to which the applied labelling strategy actually affects the quantification of the dynamics has not been determined so far. This is especially important in situations where measurements can only be obtained at a single time point, as e.g. due to organ harvest. To this end, we studied the appropriateness of various labelling strategies as characterised by the number of different labels and the initial number of cells per label to quantify cellular dynamics. We simulated adoptive transfer experiments in systems of various complexity that assumed either homoeostatic cellular turnover or cell expansion dynamics involving various steps of cell differentiation and proliferation. Re-sampling cells at a single time point, we determined the ability of different labelling strategies to recover the underlying kinetics. Our results indicate that cell transition and expansion rates are differently affected by experimental shortcomings, such as loss of cells during transfer or sampling, dependent on the labelling strategy used. Furthermore, uniformly distributed labels in the transferred population generally lead to more robust and less biased results than non-equal label sizes. In addition, our analysis indicates that certain labelling approaches incorporate a systematic bias for the identification of complex cell expansion dynamics.

  10. Impact of climate change on fish population dynamics in the baltic sea: a dynamical downscaling investigation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mackenzie, Brian R; Meier, H E Markus; Lindegren, Martin

    2012-01-01

    Understanding how climate change, exploitation and eutrophication will affect populations and ecosystems of the Baltic Sea can be facilitated with models which realistically combine these forcings into common frameworks. Here, we evaluate sensitivity of fish recruitment and population dynamics...... and the temperature have influenced recruitment for at least 50 years. The three Baltic Sea models estimate relatively similar developments (increases) in biomass and fishery yield during twenty-first century climate change (ca. 28 % range among models). However, this uncertainty is exceeded by the one associated...... to past and future environmental forcings provided by three ocean-biogeochemical models of the Baltic Sea. Modeled temperature explained nearly as much variability in reproductive success of sprat (Sprattus sprattus; Clupeidae) as measured temperatures during 1973-2005, and both the spawner biomass...

  11. The population dynamics of cancer: a Darwinian perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vineis, Paolo; Berwick, Marianne

    2006-10-01

    Carcinogenesis, at least for some types of cancer, can be interpreted as the consequence of selection of mutated cells similar to what, in the theory of evolution, occurs at the population level. Instead of considering a population of organisms, we can refer to a population of cells belonging to multicellular organisms. Many carcinogens are mutagens, and the observed geographic distribution of cancer is, at least in part, attributable to environmental mutagens. However, the rapid change in risk for some cancers after migration suggests that carcinogenesis involves--in addition to mutations--some late event that most probably consists of the selection of cells already carrying mutations. We review a few examples of such selective pressures: finasteride in prostate cancer, vitamin supplementation in smokers, acquired resistance to chemotherapy, peripheral resistance to insulin, and sunlight and mutations in melanoma. A disease model for such a hypothesis is represented by Paroxysmal Nocturnal Hemoglobinuria (PNH). Mutations can be present at birth, as in the case of PNH, and can have a frequency much higher than the occurrence of the corresponding disease (PNH or lymphocytic leukaemia in children). However, PNH does not require a mutator phenotype, only a mutant phenotype followed by selection. A characteristic feature of cancer, instead, is likely to be the development of the mutator phenotype. We propose a 'Darwinian' model of carcinogenesis. If the model is correct, it suggests that prevention is more complex than avoiding exposure to mutagens. Mutations and genetic instability can be already present at birth. Mutations can be selected in the course of life if they increase survival advantage of the cell under certain environmental circumstances. In addition, gene-environment interactions cannot be interpreted according to a simplified linear model (based on the 'analysis of variance' concept); experimental work suggests that a more comprehensive non

  12. Failure mode and dynamic behavior of nanophase iron under compression

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jia, D.; Ramesh, K.T.; Ma, E.

    1999-12-17

    Materials with ultra-fine grains down to the nanophase range (<100 nm) have been attracting considerable interest because of their unique properties compared with conventional materials. In general, the understanding of the deformation behavior of ultrafine- and nano-grained metals and alloys is still in the rudimentary stage. In this paper, the authors report on the compressive deformation behavior and failure mode of near full-density (99.2% of theoretical density) elemental Fe with an average grain size of 80 nm. Even less is known about the behavior of ultrafine- or nano-grained alloys under dynamic loading of high strain rates. Such response is relevant to possible applications of these alloys under impact conditions, such as for kinetic energy penetrators currently under investigation. The authors will present the results of high-strain-rate (Kolsky bar) tests for nano-Fe and compare them with those obtained in quasi-static compression tests of the same material. The authors demonstrate that little strain rate sensitivity is observable in the rate of 10{sup {minus}4} to 3 x 10{sup +3} s{sup {minus}1}, in sharp contrast to the strong rate sensitivity known for conventional coarse-grained bcc Fe. The weak rate dependence is correlated with shear banding as the dominant deformation and failure mechanism. This strain rate hardening behavior, together with the high strength, absence of strain hardening, and failure mechanism observed, are discussed in the context of potential applications for penetrator materials.

  13. Intertidal population genetic dynamics at a microgeographic seascape scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Zi-Min

    2013-06-01

    The intertidal community is among the most physically harsh niches on earth, with highly heterogeneous environmental and biological factors that impose strong habitat selection on population abundance, genetic connectivity and ecological adaptation of organisms in nature. However, most genetic studies to date have concentrated on the influence of basin-wide or regional marine environments (e.g. habitat discontinuities, oceanic currents and fronts, and geographic barriers) on spatiotemporal distribution and composition of intertidal invertebrates having planktonic stages or long-distance dispersal capability. Little is known about sessile marine organisms (e.g. seaweeds) in the context of topographic tidal gradients and reproductive traits at the microgeographic scale. In this issue of Molecular Ecology, Krueger-Hadfield et al. () implemented an elaborate sampling strategy with red seaweed (Chondrus crispus) from a 90-m transect stand near Roscoff and comprehensively detected genome-scale genetic differentiation and biases in ploidy level. This study not only revealed that tidal height resulted in genetic differentiation between high- and low-shore stands and restricted the genetic exchange within the high-shore habitat, but also demonstrated that intergametophytic nonrandom fertilization in C. crispus can cause significant deviation from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. Such new genetic insights highlight the importance of microgeographic genetic dynamics and life history characteristics for better understanding the evolutionary processes of speciation and diversification of intertidal marine organisms. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Population dynamics of potato cyst nematodes and associated damage to potato

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schans, J.

    1993-01-01

    Population dynamics of potato cyst nematodes (PCN; Globoderarostochiensis (Woll.) Skarbilovich and G. pallida Stone) and their interactions with potato plants are insufficiently understood to explain variations of population

  15. Diploid male dynamics under different numbers of sexual alleles and male dispersal abilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faria, Luiz R R; Soares, Elaine Della Giustina; Carmo, Eduardo do; Oliveira, Paulo Murilo Castro de

    2016-09-01

    Insects in the order Hymenoptera (bees, wasps and ants) present an haplodiploid system of sexual determination in which fertilized eggs become females and unfertilized eggs males. Under single locus complementary sex-determination (sl-CSD) system, the sex of a specimen depends on the alleles at a single locus: when diploid, an individual will be a female if heterozygous and male if homozygous. Significant diploid male (DM) production may drive a population to an extinction scenario called "diploid male vortex". We aimed at studying the dynamics of populations of a sl-CSD organism under several combinations of two parameters: male flight abilities and number of sexual alleles. In these simulations, we evaluated the frequency of DM and a genetic diversity measure over 10,000 generations. The number of sexual alleles varied from 10 to 100 and, at each generation, a male offspring might fly to another random site within a varying radius R. Two main results emerge from our simulations: (i) the number of DM depends more on male flight radius than on the number of alleles; (ii) in large geographic regions, the effect of males flight radius on the allelic diversity turns out much less pronounced than in small regions. In other words, small regions where inbreeding normally appears recover genetic diversity due to large flight radii. These results may be particularly relevant when considering the population dynamics of species with increasingly limited dispersal ability (e.g., forest-dependent species of euglossine bees in fragmented landscapes).

  16. A technique for measuring dynamic friction coefficient under impact loading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Y L; Qin, J G; Chen, R; Zhao, P D; Lu, F Y

    2014-09-01

    We develop a novel setup based on the split Hopkinson pressure bar technique to test the dynamic friction coefficient under impact loading. In the setup, the major improvement is that the end of the incident bar near the specimen is wedge-shaped, which results in a combined compressive and shear loading applied to the specimen. In fact, the shear loading is caused by the interfacial friction between specimen and bars. Therefore, when the two loading force histories are measured, the friction coefficient histories can be calculated without any assumptions and theoretical derivations. The geometry of the friction pairs is simple, and can be either cuboid or cylindrical. Regarding the measurements, two quartz transducers are used to directly record the force histories, and an optical apparatus is designed to test the interfacial slip movement. By using the setup, the dynamic friction coefficient of PTFE/aluminum 7075 friction pairs was tested. The time resolved dynamic friction coefficient and slip movement histories were achieved. The results show that the friction coefficient changes during the loading process, the average data of the relatively stable flat plateau section of the friction coefficient curves is 0.137, the maximum normal pressure is 52 MPa, the maximum relative slip velocity is 1.5 m/s, and the acceleration is 8400 m(2)/s. Furthermore, the friction test was simulated using an explicit FEM code LS-DYNA. The simulation results showed that the constant pressure and slip velocity can both be obtained with a wide flat plateau incident pulse. For some special friction pairs, normal pressure up to a few hundred MPa, interfacial slip velocities up to 10 m/s, and slip movement up to centimeter-level can be expected.

  17. Microdamage in polycrystalline ceramics under dynamic compression and tension

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, K.S.; Zhang, D.; Feng, R.; Wu, M.S.

    2005-01-01

    In-grain microplasticity and intergranular microdamage in polycrystalline hexagonal-structure ceramics subjected to a sequence of dynamic compression and tension are studied computationally using the Voronoi polycrystal model, by which the topological heterogeneity and material anisotropy of the crystals are simulated explicitly. The constitutive modeling considers crystal plasticity by basal slip, intergranular shear damage during compression, and intergranular mode-I cracking during tension. The model parameters are calibrated with the available shock compression and spall strength data on polycrystalline α-6H silicon carbide. The numerical results show that microplasticity is a more plausible micromechanism for the inelastic response of the material under shock compression. On the other hand, the spallation behavior of the shocked material can be well predicted by intergranular mode-I microcracking during load reversal from dynamic compression to tension. The failure process and the resulting spall strength are, however, affected strongly by the intensity of local release heterogeneity induced by heterogeneous microplasticity, and by the grain-boundary shear damage during compression

  18. Dynamic response of a riser under excitation of internal waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lou, Min; Yu, Chenglong; Chen, Peng

    2015-12-01

    In this paper, the dynamic response of a marine riser under excitation of internal waves is studied. With the linear approximation, the governing equation of internal waves is given. Based on the rigid-lid boundary condition assumption, the equation is solved by Thompson-Haskell method. Thus the velocity field of internal waves is obtained by the continuity equation. Combined with the modified Morison formula, using finite element method, the motion equation of riser is solved in time domain with Newmark-β method. The computation programs are compiled to solve the differential equations in time domain. Then we get the numerical results, including riser displacement and transfiguration. It is observed that the internal wave will result in circular shear flow, and the first two modes have a dominant effect on dynamic response of the marine riser. In the high mode, the response diminishes rapidly. In different modes of internal waves, the deformation of riser has different shapes, and the location of maximum displacement shifts. Studies on wave parameters indicate that the wave amplitude plays a considerable role in response displacement of riser, while the wave frequency contributes little. Nevertheless, the internal waves of high wave frequency will lead to a high-frequency oscillation of riser; it possibly gives rise to fatigue crack extension and partial fatigue failure.

  19. Dynamical anisotropic response of black phosphorus under magnetic field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xuefeng; Lu, Wei; Zhou, Xiaoying; Zhou, Yang; Zhang, Chenglong; Lai, Jiawei; Ge, Shaofeng; Sekhar, M. Chandra; Jia, Shuang; Chang, Kai; Sun, Dong

    2018-04-01

    Black phosphorus (BP) has emerged as a promising material candidate for next generation electronic and optoelectronic devices due to its high mobility, tunable band gap and highly anisotropic properties. In this work, polarization resolved ultrafast mid-infrared transient reflection spectroscopy measurements are performed to study the dynamical anisotropic optical properties of BP under magnetic fields up to 9 T. The relaxation dynamics of photoexcited carrier is found to be insensitive to the applied magnetic field due to the broadening of the Landau levels and large effective mass of carriers. While the anisotropic optical response of BP decreases with increasing magnetic field, its enhancement due to the excitation of hot carriers is similar to that without magnetic field. These experimental results can be well interpreted by the magneto-optical conductivity of the Landau levels of BP thin film, based on an effective k · p Hamiltonian and linear response theory. These findings suggest attractive possibilities of multi-dimensional control of anisotropic response (AR) of BP with light, electric and magnetic field, which further introduces BP to the fantastic magnetic field sensitive applications.

  20. COMPETITIVE DYNAMICS AND EARLY MOVER ADVANTAGES UNDER ECONOMIC RECESSIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberto Vassolo

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available In light of the recent macroeconomic instability in global markets, we examine the evolution of competitive dynamics and firm profitability when industries are subject to recessions. Although ordinary intuition leads most to view recessions as harmful, we highlight conditions under which they enhance the relative value of industry-level supply-side isolating mechanisms, thereby affording early movers significant and sustainable profit advantages vis-à-vis laggards. We observe that the distribution of firm size within the industry switches from a bi-modal distribution (i.e., one dominated by both small and large firms to a right-skewed one (i.e., dominated mostly by large firms in these contexts, thereby signaling the rise of important opportunities in the form of less rivalrous competitive contexts for survivors of recessions. We derive our results from formal modeling and multiple simulation runs.

  1. Dynamic malware containment under an epidemic model with alert

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Tianrui; Yang, Lu-Xing; Yang, Xiaofan; Wu, Yingbo; Tang, Yuan Yan

    2017-03-01

    Alerting at the early stage of malware invasion turns out to be an important complement to malware detection and elimination. This paper addresses the issue of how to dynamically contain the prevalence of malware at a lower cost, provided alerting is feasible. A controlled epidemic model with alert is established, and an optimal control problem based on the epidemic model is formulated. The optimality system for the optimal control problem is derived. The structure of an optimal control for the proposed optimal control problem is characterized under some conditions. Numerical examples show that the cost-efficiency of an optimal control strategy can be enhanced by adjusting the upper and lower bounds on admissible controls.

  2. Planar dynamics of large-deformation rods under moving loads

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, X. W.; van der Heijden, G. H. M.

    2018-01-01

    We formulate the problem of a slender structure (a rod) undergoing large deformation under the action of a moving mass or load motivated by inspection robots crawling along bridge cables or high-voltage power lines. The rod is described by means of geometrically exact Cosserat theory which allows for arbitrary planar flexural, extensional and shear deformations. The equations of motion are discretised using the generalised-α method. The formulation is shown to handle the discontinuities of the problem well. Application of the method to a cable and an arch problem reveals interesting nonlinear phenomena. For the cable problem we find that large deformations have a resonance detuning effect on cable dynamics. The problem also offers a compelling illustration of the Timoshenko paradox. For the arch problem we find a stabilising (delay) effect on the in-plane collapse of the arch, with failure suppressed entirely at sufficiently high speed.

  3. Dynamics of Microbeams under Multi-Frequency Excitations

    KAUST Repository

    Ibrahim, Alwathiqbellah

    2017-01-24

    This paper presents an investigation of the dynamics of microbeams under multiple harmonic electrostatic excitation frequencies. First, the response of a cantilever microbeam to two alternating current (AC) source excitation is examined. We show by simulations the response of the microbeam at primary resonance (near the fundamental natural frequency) and at secondary resonances (near half, superharmonic, and twice, subharmonic, the fundamental natural frequency). A multimode Galerkin method combined with the Euler-Bernoulli beam equation, accounting for the nonlinear electrostatic force, has been used to develop a reduced order model. The response of the cantilever microbeam to three AC source excitation is also investigated and shown as a promising technique to enhance the bandwidth of resonators. Finally, an experimental study of a clamped-clamped microbeam is conducted, demonstrating the multi-frequency excitation resonances using two, three, and four AC sources.

  4. Dynamics of Microbeams under Multi-Frequency Excitations

    KAUST Repository

    Ibrahim, Alwathiqbellah; Jaber, Nizar; Chandran, Akhil; Thirupathi, Maloth; Younis, Mohammad I.

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents an investigation of the dynamics of microbeams under multiple harmonic electrostatic excitation frequencies. First, the response of a cantilever microbeam to two alternating current (AC) source excitation is examined. We show by simulations the response of the microbeam at primary resonance (near the fundamental natural frequency) and at secondary resonances (near half, superharmonic, and twice, subharmonic, the fundamental natural frequency). A multimode Galerkin method combined with the Euler-Bernoulli beam equation, accounting for the nonlinear electrostatic force, has been used to develop a reduced order model. The response of the cantilever microbeam to three AC source excitation is also investigated and shown as a promising technique to enhance the bandwidth of resonators. Finally, an experimental study of a clamped-clamped microbeam is conducted, demonstrating the multi-frequency excitation resonances using two, three, and four AC sources.

  5. Dynamic Group Diffie-Hellman Key Exchange under standard assumptions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bresson, Emmanuel; Chevassut, Olivier; Pointcheval, David

    2002-01-01

    Authenticated Diffie-Hellman key exchange allows two principals communicating over a public network, and each holding public-private keys, to agree on a shared secret value. In this paper we study the natural extension of this cryptographic problem to a group of principals. We begin from existing formal security models and refine them to incorporate major missing details (e.g., strong-corruption and concurrent sessions). Within this model we define the execution of a protocol for authenticated dynamic group Diffie-Hellman and show that it is provably secure under the decisional Diffie-Hellman assumption. Our security result holds in the standard model and thus provides better security guarantees than previously published results in the random oracle model

  6. Integrating count and detection–nondetection data to model population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zipkin, Elise F.; Rossman, Sam; Yackulic, Charles B.; Wiens, David; Thorson, James T.; Davis, Raymond J.; Grant, Evan H. Campbell

    2017-01-01

    There is increasing need for methods that integrate multiple data types into a single analytical framework as the spatial and temporal scale of ecological research expands. Current work on this topic primarily focuses on combining capture–recapture data from marked individuals with other data types into integrated population models. Yet, studies of species distributions and trends often rely on data from unmarked individuals across broad scales where local abundance and environmental variables may vary. We present a modeling framework for integrating detection–nondetection and count data into a single analysis to estimate population dynamics, abundance, and individual detection probabilities during sampling. Our dynamic population model assumes that site-specific abundance can change over time according to survival of individuals and gains through reproduction and immigration. The observation process for each data type is modeled by assuming that every individual present at a site has an equal probability of being detected during sampling processes. We examine our modeling approach through a series of simulations illustrating the relative value of count vs. detection–nondetection data under a variety of parameter values and survey configurations. We also provide an empirical example of the model by combining long-term detection–nondetection data (1995–2014) with newly collected count data (2015–2016) from a growing population of Barred Owl (Strix varia) in the Pacific Northwest to examine the factors influencing population abundance over time. Our model provides a foundation for incorporating unmarked data within a single framework, even in cases where sampling processes yield different detection probabilities. This approach will be useful for survey design and to researchers interested in incorporating historical or citizen science data into analyses focused on understanding how demographic rates drive population abundance.

  7. A spatial ecosystem and populations dynamics model (SEAPODYM) Modeling of tuna and tuna-like populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehodey, Patrick; Senina, Inna; Murtugudde, Raghu

    2008-09-01

    An enhanced version of the spatial ecosystem and population dynamics model SEAPODYM is presented to describe spatial dynamics of tuna and tuna-like species in the Pacific Ocean at monthly resolution over 1° grid-boxes. The simulations are driven by a bio-physical environment predicted from a coupled ocean physical-biogeochemical model. This new version of SEAPODYM includes expanded definitions of habitat indices, movements, and natural mortality based on empirical evidences. A thermal habitat of tuna species is derived from an individual heat budget model. The feeding habitat is computed according to the accessibility of tuna predator cohorts to different vertically migrating and non-migrating micronekton (mid-trophic) functional groups. The spawning habitat is based on temperature and the coincidence of spawning fish with presence or absence of predators and food for larvae. The successful larval recruitment is linked to spawning stock biomass. Larvae drift with currents, while immature and adult tuna can move of their own volition, in addition to being advected by currents. A food requirement index is computed to adjust locally the natural mortality of cohorts based on food demand and accessibility to available forage components. Together these mechanisms induce bottom-up and top-down effects, and intra- (i.e. between cohorts) and inter-species interactions. The model is now fully operational for running multi-species, multi-fisheries simulations, and the structure of the model allows a validation from multiple data sources. An application with two tuna species showing different biological characteristics, skipjack ( Katsuwonus pelamis) and bigeye ( Thunnus obesus), is presented to illustrate the capacity of the model to capture many important features of spatial dynamics of these two different tuna species in the Pacific Ocean. The actual validation is presented in a companion paper describing the approach to have a rigorous mathematical parameter optimization

  8. Combining a weed traits database with a population dynamics model predicts shifts in weed communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storkey, J; Holst, N; Bøjer, O Q; Bigongiali, F; Bocci, G; Colbach, N; Dorner, Z; Riemens, M M; Sartorato, I; Sønderskov, M; Verschwele, A

    2015-04-01

    A functional approach to predicting shifts in weed floras in response to management or environmental change requires the combination of data on weed traits with analytical frameworks that capture the filtering effect of selection pressures on traits. A weed traits database (WTDB) was designed, populated and analysed, initially using data for 19 common European weeds, to begin to consolidate trait data in a single repository. The initial choice of traits was driven by the requirements of empirical models of weed population dynamics to identify correlations between traits and model parameters. These relationships were used to build a generic model, operating at the level of functional traits, to simulate the impact of increasing herbicide and fertiliser use on virtual weeds along gradients of seed weight and maximum height. The model generated 'fitness contours' (defined as population growth rates) within this trait space in different scenarios, onto which two sets of weed species, defined as common or declining in the UK, were mapped. The effect of increasing inputs on the weed flora was successfully simulated; 77% of common species were predicted to have stable or increasing populations under high fertiliser and herbicide use, in contrast with only 29% of the species that have declined. Future development of the WTDB will aim to increase the number of species covered, incorporate a wider range of traits and analyse intraspecific variability under contrasting management and environments.

  9. Sustainable infrastructure system modeling under uncertainties and dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yongxi

    Infrastructure systems support human activities in transportation, communication, water use, and energy supply. The dissertation research focuses on critical transportation infrastructure and renewable energy infrastructure systems. The goal of the research efforts is to improve the sustainability of the infrastructure systems, with an emphasis on economic viability, system reliability and robustness, and environmental impacts. The research efforts in critical transportation infrastructure concern the development of strategic robust resource allocation strategies in an uncertain decision-making environment, considering both uncertain service availability and accessibility. The study explores the performances of different modeling approaches (i.e., deterministic, stochastic programming, and robust optimization) to reflect various risk preferences. The models are evaluated in a case study of Singapore and results demonstrate that stochastic modeling methods in general offers more robust allocation strategies compared to deterministic approaches in achieving high coverage to critical infrastructures under risks. This general modeling framework can be applied to other emergency service applications, such as, locating medical emergency services. The development of renewable energy infrastructure system development aims to answer the following key research questions: (1) is the renewable energy an economically viable solution? (2) what are the energy distribution and infrastructure system requirements to support such energy supply systems in hedging against potential risks? (3) how does the energy system adapt the dynamics from evolving technology and societal needs in the transition into a renewable energy based society? The study of Renewable Energy System Planning with Risk Management incorporates risk management into its strategic planning of the supply chains. The physical design and operational management are integrated as a whole in seeking mitigations against the

  10. Numerical optimization of piezolaminated beams under static and dynamic excitations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rajan L. Wankhade

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Shape and vibration controls of smart structures in structural applications have gained much attraction due to their ability of actuation and sensing. The response of structure to bending, vibration, and buckling can be controlled by the use of this ability of a piezoelectric material. In the present work, the static and dynamic control of smart piezolaminated beams is presented. The optimal locations of piezoelectric patches are found out and then a detailed analysis is performed using finite element modeling considering the higher order shear deformation theory. In the first part, for an extension mode, the piezolaminated beam with stacking sequence PZT5/Al/PZT5 is considered. The length of the beam is 100 mm, whereas the thickness of an aluminum core is 16 mm and that of the piezo layer is of 1 mm. The PZT actuators are positioned with an identical poling direction along the thickness and are excited by a direct current voltage of 10 V. For the shear mode, the stacking sequence Al/PZT5/Al is adopted. The length of the beam is kept the same as the extension mechanism i.e. 100 mm, whereas the thickness of the aluminum core is 8 mm and that of the piezo layer is of 2 mm. The actuator is excited by a direct current voltage of 20 V. In the second part, the control of the piezolaminated beam with an optimal location of the actuator is investigated under a dynamic excitation. Electromechanical loading is considered in the finite element formulation for the analysis purpose. Results are provided for beams with different boundary conditions and loading for future references. Both the extension and shear actuation mechanisms are employed for the piezolaminated beam. These results may be used to identify the response of a beam under static and dynamic excitations. From the present work, the optimal location of a piezoelectric patch can be easily identified for the corresponding boundary condition of the beam.

  11. Cellular-automata model of the dwarf shrubs populations and communities dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. S. Komarov

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The probabilistic cellular-automata model of development and long-time dynamics of dwarf shrub populations and communities is developed. It is based on the concept of discrete description of the plant ontogenesis and joint model approaches in terms of probabilistic cellular automata and L-systems by Lindenmayer. Short representation of the basic model allows evaluation of the approach and software implementation. The main variables of the model are a number of partial bushes in clones or area projective cover. The model allows us to investigate the conditions of self-maintenance and sustainability population under different environmental conditions (inaccessibility of the territory for settlement, mosaic moisture conditions of soil and wealth. The model provides a forecast of the total biomass dynamics shrubs and their fractions (stems, leaves, roots, fine roots, fruits on the basis of the data obtained in the discrete description of ontogenesis and further information on the productivity of the plant fractions. The inclusion of the joint dynamics of biomass of shrubs and soil in EFIMOD models cycle of carbon and nitrogen to evaluate the role of shrubs in these circulations, especially at high impact, such as forest fires and clear cutting, allow forecasting of the dynamics of populations and ecosystem functions of shrubs (regulation of biogeochemical cycles maintaining biodiversity, participation in the creation of non-wood products with changing climatic conditions and strong damaging effects (logging, fires; and application of the models developed to investigate the stability and productivity of shrubs and their participation in the cycle of carbon and nitrogen in different climatic and edaphic conditions.

  12. The role of uncertainty in supply chains under dynamic modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Fera

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The uncertainty in the supply chains (SCs for manufacturing and services firms is going to be, over the coming decades, more important for the companies that are called to compete in a new globalized economy. Risky situations for manufacturing are considered in trying to individuate the optimal positioning of the order penetration point (OPP. It aims at defining the best level of information of the client’s order going back through the several supply chain (SC phases, i.e. engineering, procurement, production and distribution. This work aims at defining a system dynamics model to assess competitiveness coming from the positioning of the order in different SC locations. A Taguchi analysis has been implemented to create a decision map for identifying possible strategic decisions under different scenarios and with alternatives for order location in the SC levels. Centralized and decentralized strategies for SC integration are discussed. In the model proposed, the location of OPP is influenced by the demand variation, production time, stock-outs and stock amount. Results of this research are as follows: (i customer-oriented strategies are preferable under high volatility of demand, (ii production-focused strategies are suggested when the probability of stock-outs is high, (iii no specific location is preferable if a centralized control architecture is implemented, (iv centralization requires cooperation among partners to achieve the SC optimum point, (v the producer must not prefer the OPP location at the Retailer level when the general strategy is focused on a decentralized approach.

  13. Bubble dynamics under acoustic excitation with multiple frequencies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Y N; Zhang, Y N; Li, S C

    2015-01-01

    Because of its magnificent mechanical and chemical effects, acoustic cavitation plays an important role in a broad range of biomedical, chemical and mechanical engineering problems. Particularly, irradiation of the multiple frequency acoustic wave could enhance the effects of cavitation. The advantages of employment of multi-frequency ultrasonic field include decreasing the cavitation thresholds, promoting cavitation nuclei generation, increasing the mass transfer and improving energy efficiency. Therefore, multi-frequency ultrasonic systems are employed in a variety of applications, e.g., to enhance the intensity of sonoluminenscence, to increase efficiency of sonochemical reaction, to improve the accuracy of ultrasound imaging and the efficiency of tissue ablation. Compared to single-frequency systems, a lot of new features of bubble dynamics exist in multi-frequency systems, such as special properties of oscillating bubbles, unique resonances in the bubble response curves, and unusual chaotic behaviours. In present paper, the underlying mechanisms of the cavitation effects under multi-frequency acoustical excitation are also briefly introduced

  14. Statistical characteristics of dynamics for population migration driven by the economic interests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huo, Jie; Wang, Xu-Ming; Zhao, Ning; Hao, Rui

    2016-06-01

    Population migration typically occurs under some constraints, which can deeply affect the structure of a society and some other related aspects. Therefore, it is critical to investigate the characteristics of population migration. Data from the China Statistical Yearbook indicate that the regional gross domestic product per capita relates to the population size via a linear or power-law relation. In addition, the distribution of population migration sizes or relative migration strength introduced here is dominated by a shifted power-law relation. To reveal the mechanism that creates the aforementioned distributions, a dynamic model is proposed based on the population migration rule that migration is facilitated by higher financial gains and abated by fewer employment opportunities at the destination, considering the migration cost as a function of the migration distance. The calculated results indicate that the distribution of the relative migration strength is governed by a shifted power-law relation, and that the distribution of migration distances is dominated by a truncated power-law relation. These results suggest the use of a power-law to fit a distribution may be not always suitable. Additionally, from the modeling framework, one can infer that it is the randomness and determinacy that jointly create the scaling characteristics of the distributions. The calculation also demonstrates that the network formed by active nodes, representing the immigration and emigration regions, usually evolves from an ordered state with a non-uniform structure to a disordered state with a uniform structure, which is evidenced by the increasing structural entropy.

  15. Modeling the impacts of hunting on the population dynamics of red howler monkeys (Alouatta seniculus)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiederholt, Ruscena; Fernandez-Duque, Eduardo; Diefenbach, Duane R.; Rudran, Rasanayagam

    2010-01-01

    Overexploitation of wildlife populations occurs across the humid tropics and is a significant threat to the long-term survival of large-bodied primates. To investigate the impacts of hunting on primates and ways to mitigate them, we developed a spatially explicit, individual-based model for a landscape that included hunted and un-hunted areas. We used the large-bodied neotropical red howler monkey (Alouatta seniculus) as our case study species because its life history characteristics make it vulnerable to hunting. We modeled the influence of different rates of harvest and proportions of landscape dedicated to un-hunted reserves on population persistence, population size, social dynamics, and hunting yields of red howler monkeys. In most scenarios, the un-hunted populations maintained a constant density regardless of hunting pressure elsewhere, and allowed the overall population to persist. Therefore, the overall population was quite resilient to extinction; only in scenarios without any un-hunted areas did the population go extinct. However, the total and hunted populations did experience large declines over 100 years under moderate and high hunting pressure. In addition, when reserve area decreased, population losses and losses per unit area increased disproportionately. Furthermore, hunting disrupted the social structure of troops. The number of male turnovers and infanticides increased in hunted populations, while birth rates decreased and exacerbated population losses due to hunting. Finally, our results indicated that when more than 55% of the landscape was harvested at high (30%) rates, hunting yields, as measured by kilograms of biomass, were less than those obtained from moderate harvest rates. Additionally, hunting yields, expressed as the number of individuals hunted/year/km2, increased in proximity to un-hunted areas, and suggested that dispersal from un-hunted areas may have contributed to hunting sustainability. These results indicate that un

  16. Effects of demographic structure on key properties of stochastic density-independent population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vindenes, Yngvild; Sæther, Bernt-Erik; Engen, Steinar

    2012-12-01

    The development of stochastic demography has largely been based on age structured populations, although other types of demographic structure, especially permanent and dynamic heterogeneity, are likely common in natural populations. The combination of stochasticity and demographic structure is a challenge for analyses of population dynamics and extinction risk, because the population structure will fluctuate around the stable structure and the population size shows transient fluctuations. However, by using a diffusion approximation for the total reproductive value, density-independent dynamics of structured populations can be described with only three population parameters: the expected population growth rate, the environmental variance and the demographic variance. These parameters depend on population structure via the state-specific vital rates and transition rates. Once they are found, the diffusion approximation represents a substantial reduction in model complexity. Here, we review and compare the key population parameters across a wide range of demographic structure, from the case of no structure to the most general case of dynamic heterogeneity, and for both discrete and continuous types. We focus on the demographic variance, but also show how environmental stochasticity can be included. This study brings together results from recent models, each considering a specific type of population structure, and places them in a general framework for structured populations. Comparison across different types of demographic structure reveals that the reproductive value is an essential concept for understanding how population structure affects stochastic dynamics and extinction risk. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Population dynamics of spotted owls in the Sierra Nevada, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blakesley, J.A.; Seamans, M.E.; Conner, M.M.; Franklin, A.B.; White, Gary C.; Gutierrez, R.J.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.; Munton, T.E.; Shaw, D.W.H.; Keane, J.J.; Steger, G.N.; McDonald, T.L.

    2010-01-01

    The California spotted owl (Strix occidentalis occidentalis) is the only spotted owl subspecies not listed as threatened or endangered under the United States Endangered Species Act despite petitions to list it as threatened. We conducted a meta-analysis of population data for 4 populations in the southern Cascades and Sierra Nevada, California, USA, from 1990 to 2005 to assist a listing evaluation by the United States Fish and Wildlife Service. Our study areas (from N to S) were on the Lassen National Forest (LAS), Eldorado National Forest (ELD), Sierra National Forest (SIE), and Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks (SKC). These study areas represented a broad spectrum of habitat and management conditions in these mountain ranges. We estimated apparent survival probability, reproductive output, and rate of population change for spotted owls on individual study areas and for all study areas combined (meta-analysis) using model selection or model-averaging based on maximum-likelihood estimation. We followed a formal protocol to conduct this analysis that was similar to other spotted owl meta-analyses. Consistency of field and analytical methods among our studies reduced confounding methodological effects when evaluating results. We used 991 marked spotted owls in the analysis of apparent survival. Apparent survival probability was higher for adult than for subadult owls. There was little difference in apparent survival between male and female owls. Model-averaged mean estimates of apparent survival probability of adult owls varied from 0.811 ?? 0.021 for females at LAS to 0.890 ?? 0.016 for males at SKC. Apparent survival increased over time for owls of all age classes at LAS and SIE, for adults at ELD, and for second-year subadults and adults at SKC. The meta-analysis of apparent survival, which included only adult owls, confirmed an increasing trend in survival over time. Survival rates were higher for owls on SKC than on the other study areas. We analyzed data

  18. Nanomaterials under extreme environments: A study of structural and dynamic properties using reactive molecular dynamics simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shekhar, Adarsh

    Nanotechnology is becoming increasingly important with the continuing advances in experimental techniques. As researchers around the world are trying to expand the current understanding of the behavior of materials at the atomistic scale, the limited resolution of equipment, both in terms of time and space, act as roadblocks to a comprehensive study. Numerical methods, in general and molecular dynamics, in particular act as able compliment to the experiments in our quest for understanding material behavior. In this research work, large scale molecular dynamics simulations to gain insight into the mechano-chemical behavior under extreme conditions of a variety of systems with many real world applications. The body of this work is divided into three parts, each covering a particular system: 1) Aggregates of aluminum nanoparticles are good solid fuel due to high flame propagation rates. Multi-million atom molecular dynamics simulations reveal the mechanism underlying higher reaction rate in a chain of aluminum nanoparticles as compared to an isolated nanoparticle. This is due to the penetration of hot atoms from reacting nanoparticles to an adjacent, unreacted nanoparticle, which brings in external heat and initiates exothermic oxidation reactions. 2) Cavitation bubbles readily occur in fluids subjected to rapid changes in pressure. We use billion-atom reactive molecular dynamics simulations on a 163,840-processor BlueGene/P supercomputer to investigate chemical and mechanical damages caused by shock-induced collapse of nanobubbles in water near amorphous silica. Collapse of an empty nanobubble generates high-speed nanojet, resulting in the formation of a pit on the surface. The pit contains a large number of silanol groups and its volume is found to be directly proportional to the volume of the nanobubble. The gas-filled bubbles undergo partial collapse and consequently the damage on the silica surface is mitigated. 3) The structure and dynamics of water confined in

  19. Population Dynamics and Cost-Benefit Analysis. An Attempt to Relate Population Dynamics via Lifetime Reproductive Success to Short-Term Decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tinbergen, J.M.; Balen, J.H. van; Drent, P.J.; Cavé, A.J.; Mertens, J.A.L.; Boer-Hazewinkel, J. den

    1987-01-01

    1. The aim of this article is to explore whether cost-benefit analysis of behaviour may help to understand the population dynamics of a species. The Great Tit is taken as an example. 2. The lifetime reproductive success in different populations of Great Tits amounts from 0.7 (Hoge Veluwe, Wytham) to

  20. Emergence of cooperation in phenotypically heterogeneous populations: a replicator dynamics analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barreira da Silva Rocha, A; Escobedo, R; Laruelle, A

    2015-01-01

    The emergence of cooperation is analyzed in heterogeneous populations where two kinds of individuals exist according to their phenotypic appearance. Phenotype recognition is assumed for all individuals: individuals are able to identify the type of every other individual, but fail to recognize their own type. Individuals thus behave under partial information conditions. The interactions between individuals are described by the snowdrift game, where individuals can either cooperate or defect. The evolution of such populations is studied in the framework of evolutionary game theory by means of the replicator dynamics. Overlapping generations are considered, so the replicator equations are formulated in discrete-time form. The stability analysis of the dynamical system is carried out and a detailed description of the behavior of trajectories starting from the interior of the state-space is given. We find that the four monomorphic states are unstable and that a polymorphic state exists which is a global attractor for non-degenerate initial states of the population. The result for the discrete-time replicator coincides with the one of the continuous case. (paper)

  1. Phase resetting reveals network dynamics underlying a bacterial cell cycle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yihan; Li, Ying; Crosson, Sean; Dinner, Aaron R; Scherer, Norbert F

    2012-01-01

    Genomic and proteomic methods yield networks of biological regulatory interactions but do not provide direct insight into how those interactions are organized into functional modules, or how information flows from one module to another. In this work we introduce an approach that provides this complementary information and apply it to the bacterium Caulobacter crescentus, a paradigm for cell-cycle control. Operationally, we use an inducible promoter to express the essential transcriptional regulatory gene ctrA in a periodic, pulsed fashion. This chemical perturbation causes the population of cells to divide synchronously, and we use the resulting advance or delay of the division times of single cells to construct a phase resetting curve. We find that delay is strongly favored over advance. This finding is surprising since it does not follow from the temporal expression profile of CtrA and, in turn, simulations of existing network models. We propose a phenomenological model that suggests that the cell-cycle network comprises two distinct functional modules that oscillate autonomously and couple in a highly asymmetric fashion. These features collectively provide a new mechanism for tight temporal control of the cell cycle in C. crescentus. We discuss how the procedure can serve as the basis for a general approach for probing network dynamics, which we term chemical perturbation spectroscopy (CPS).

  2. Developing Library Services for the Nomadic Population under the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Basic education in Nigeria under the Universal Basic Education (UBE) Programme provides expanded opportunities to meet the basic learning needs of children, youths and adults in school and out of school. Every library meets the educational and informational needs of an identified community of users by providing ...

  3. Endogenous technological and population change under increasing water scarcity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pande, S.; Ertsen, M.; Sivapalan, M.

    2013-01-01

    The ancient civilization in the Indus Valley civilization dispersed under extreme dry conditions; there are indications that the same holds for many other ancient societies. Even contemporary societies, such as the one in Murrumbidgee river basin in Australia, have started to witness a decline in

  4. Impact of forestry practices at a landscape scale on the dynamics of amphibian populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harper, Elizabeth B; Patrick, David A; Gibbs, James P

    2015-12-01

    Forest loss is a primary cause of worldwide amphibian decline. Timber harvesting in the United States has caused dramatic changes in quality and extent of forest ecosystems, and intensive forest management still occurs. Although numerous studies have documented substantial reductions in amphibian densities related to timber harvest, subsequent extinctions are rare. To better understand the population dynamics that have allowed so many amphibian species to persist in the face of widespread forest disturbance, we developed spatially explicit metapopulation models for four forest-dependent amphibian species (Lithobates sylvaticus, Ambystoma opacum, A. talpoideum, and A. maculatum) that incorporated demographic and habitat selection data derived from experiments conducted as part of the Land Use Effects on Amphibian Populations Project (LEAP). We projected local and landscape-scale population persistence under 108 different forestry practice scenarios, varying treatment (partial cut, clear-cut with coarse woody debris [CWD] removed, and clearcut with CWD retained), cut patch size (1, 10, or 50 ha), total area cut (10, 20, or 30%), and initial amphibian population size (5, 50, or 500 adult females per local breeding population). Under these scenarios, landscape-scale extinction was highly unlikely, occurring in amphibian populations in the United States should focus not on questions of landscape-scale extinction but on the ecological consequences of dramatic reductions in amphibian biomass, including changes in trophic interactions, nutrient cycling, and energy transfer. Additionally, we conclude that amphibian declines and extinctions are far more likely to occur as a result of permanent habitat loss resulting from development than from the temporary degradation of habitat caused by current forestry practices.

  5. Metastable states and quasicycles in a stochastic Wilson-Cowan model of neuronal population dynamics

    KAUST Repository

    Bressloff, Paul C.

    2010-01-01

    We analyze a stochastic model of neuronal population dynamics with intrinsic noise. In the thermodynamic limit N→∞, where N determines the size of each population, the dynamics is described by deterministic Wilson-Cowan equations. On the other hand

  6. Geographic coupling of juvenile and adult habitat shapes spatial population dynamics of a coral reef fish

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huijbers, C.M.; Nagelekerken, I.; Debrot, A.O.; Jongejans, E.

    2013-01-01

    Marine spatial population dynamics are often addressed with a focus on larval dispersal, without taking into account movement behavior of individuals in later life stages. Processes occurring during demersal life stages may also drive spatial population dynamics if habitat quality is perceived

  7. Effective population size and evolutionary dynamics in outbred ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    populations of fruit flies is not primarily driven by new mutations, but rather by changes in the frequency of ..... Drift simulation: The sex ratio, total population size and ...... Gillespie J. H. 1994a Substitution processes in molecular evolution. II.

  8. On the apllication of single specie dynamic population model | Iguda ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The Method of mathematical models of Malthus and Verhults were applied on ten years data collected from Magaram Poultry Farm to determine the nature of population growth, population decay or constant ... Keywords: Birth rate, sustainable population, overcrowding, harvesting, independent t-test and one way Anova.

  9. BEHAVIOR OF STEEL DP 600 UNDER DYNAMIC CONDITIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miroslav Német

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Normal 0 21 false false false MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 Dynamic tensile testing of sheet steels is becoming more important. Experimental dynamic tensile technique is depending on the strain rate. For experiments was used two testing method servo hydraulic and single bar method. Experiments was realized on steel grade DP 600. Steel were performed and evaluated static and dynamic tests. Was investigated substructure in static and dynamic loading conditions.

  10. Estimating a population cumulative incidence under calendar time trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Stefan N; Overgaard, Morten; Andersen, Per K

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The risk of a disease or psychiatric disorder is frequently measured by the age-specific cumulative incidence. Cumulative incidence estimates are often derived in cohort studies with individuals recruited over calendar time and with the end of follow-up governed by a specific date...... by calendar time trends, the total sample Kaplan-Meier and Aalen-Johansen estimators do not provide useful estimates of the general risk in the target population. We present some alternatives to this type of analysis. RESULTS: We show how a proportional hazards model may be used to extrapolate disease risk...... estimates if proportionality is a reasonable assumption. If not reasonable, we instead advocate that a more useful description of the disease risk lies in the age-specific cumulative incidence curves across strata given by time of entry or perhaps just the end of follow-up estimates across all strata...

  11. Sediment phosphorus speciation and mobility under dynamic redox conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parsons, Chris T.; Rezanezhad, Fereidoun; O'Connell, David W.; Van Cappellen, Philippe

    2017-07-01

    Anthropogenic nutrient enrichment has caused phosphorus (P) accumulation in many freshwater sediments, raising concerns that internal loading from legacy P may delay the recovery of aquatic ecosystems suffering from eutrophication. Benthic recycling of P strongly depends on the redox regime within surficial sediment. In many shallow environments, redox conditions tend to be highly dynamic as a result of, among others, bioturbation by macrofauna, root activity, sediment resuspension and seasonal variations in bottom-water oxygen (O2) concentrations. To gain insight into the mobility and biogeochemistry of P under fluctuating redox conditions, a suspension of sediment from a hypereutrophic freshwater marsh was exposed to alternating 7-day periods of purging with air and nitrogen gas (N2), for a total duration of 74 days, in a bioreactor system. We present comprehensive data time series of bulk aqueous- and solid-phase chemistry, solid-phase phosphorus speciation and hydrolytic enzyme activities demonstrating the mass balanced redistribution of P in sediment during redox cycling. Aqueous phosphate concentrations remained low ( ˜ 2.5 µM) under oxic conditions due to sorption to iron(III) oxyhydroxides. During anoxic periods, once nitrate was depleted, the reductive dissolution of iron(III) oxyhydroxides released P. However, only 4.5 % of the released P accumulated in solution while the rest was redistributed between the MgCl2 and NaHCO3 extractable fractions of the solid phase. Thus, under the short redox fluctuations imposed in the experiments, P remobilization to the aqueous phase remained relatively limited. Orthophosphate predominated at all times during the experiment in both the solid and aqueous phase. Combined P monoesters and diesters accounted for between 9 and 16 % of sediment particulate P. Phosphatase activities up to 2.4 mmol h-1 kg-1 indicated the potential for rapid mineralization of organic P (Po), in particular during periods of aeration when the

  12. Dynamics of a physiologically structured population in a time-varying environment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heilmann, Irene Louise Torpe; Starke, Jens; Andersen, Ken Haste

    2016-01-01

    Physiologically structured population models have become a valuable tool to model the dynamics of populations. In a stationary environment such models can exhibit equilibrium solutions as well as periodic solutions. However, for many organisms the environment is not stationary, but varies more...... or less regularly. In order to understand the interaction between an external environmental forcing and the internal dynamics in a population, we examine the response of a physiologically structured population model to a periodic variation in the food resource. We explore the addition of forcing in two...... cases: (A) where the population dynamics is in equilibrium in a stationary environment, and (B) where the population dynamics exhibits a periodic solution in a stationary environment. When forcing is applied in case A, the solutions are mainly periodic. In case B the forcing signal interacts...

  13. Performance of HEPA filters under hot dynamic conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frankum, D.P.; Costigan, G.

    1995-01-01

    Accidents in nuclear facilities involving fires may have implications upon the ventilation systems where high efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filters are used to minimise the airborne release of radioactive or toxic particles. The Filter Development Section at Harwell Laboratory has been investigating the effect of temperature on the performance of HEPA filters under hot dynamic conditions[ 1 ] for a number of years. The test rig is capable of delivering air flows of 10001/s (at ambient conditions) at temperatures up to 500 degrees C, where measurements of the penetration and pressure drop across the filter are obtained. This paper reports the experiments on different constructions of HEPA filters; rectangular and circular. The filters were tested at an air temperature of 200 degrees C for up to 48 hours at the rated airflow to assess their performance. The penetration measurements for rectangular filters were observed to be below 0.021% after prolonged operation. In a number of cases, holes appeared along the pleat creases of circular filters although the penetration remained below 1%. The sealing gasket for these filters was noted to deform with temperature, permitting a leakage path. A prototype high strength circular filter was evaluated at temperatures of up to 400 degrees C with a penetration less than 0.65%

  14. Analysis of Dynamic Properties of Piezoelectric Structure under Impact Load

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taotao Zhang

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available An analytical model of the dynamic properties is established for a piezoelectric structure under impact load, without considering noise and perturbations in this paper. Based on the general theory of piezo-elasticity and impact mechanics, the theoretical solutions of the mechanical and electrical fields of the smart structure are obtained with the standing and traveling wave methods, respectively. The comparisons between the two methods have shown that the standing wave method is better for studying long-time response after an impact load. In addition, good agreements are found between the theoretical and the numerical results. To simulate the impact load, both triangle and step pulse loads are used and comparisons are given. Furthermore, the influence of several parameters is discussed so as to provide some advices for practical use. It can be seen that the proposed analytical model would benefit, to some extent, the design and application (especially the airport runway of the related smart devices by taking into account their impact load performance.

  15. Modeling dynamic behavior of superconducting maglev systems under external disturbances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Chen-Guang; Xue, Cun; Yong, Hua-Dong; Zhou, You-He

    2017-08-01

    For a maglev system, vertical and lateral displacements of the levitation body may simultaneously occur under external disturbances, which often results in changes in the levitation and guidance forces and even causes some serious malfunctions. To fully understand the effect of external disturbances on the levitation performance, in this work, we build a two-dimensional numerical model on the basis of Newton's second law of motion and a mathematical formulation derived from magnetoquasistatic Maxwell's equations together with a nonlinear constitutive relation between the electric field and the current density. By using this model, we present an analysis of dynamic behavior for two typical maglev systems consisting of an infinitely long superconductor and a guideway of different arrangements of infinitely long parallel permanent magnets. The results show that during the vertical movement, the levitation force is closely associated with the flux motion and the moving velocity of the superconductor. After being disturbed at the working position, the superconductor has a disturbance-induced initial velocity and then starts to periodically vibrate in both lateral and vertical directions. Meanwhile, the lateral and vertical vibration centers gradually drift along their vibration directions. The larger the initial velocity, the faster their vibration centers drift. However, the vertical drift of the vertical vibration center seems to be independent of the direction of the initial velocity. In addition, due to the lateral and vertical drifts, the equilibrium position of the superconductor in the maglev systems is not a space point but a continuous range.

  16. Cooperation of axisymmetric connection elements under dynamic load

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kołodziej Andrzej

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The article presents a method for determining the parameters that define the cooperation of the elements in the axisymmetic connection. The connection, which constitutes a shaft cooperating with a sleeve, has been tested for reaction forces in the connection during shaft rotation in the static sleeve. The shaft was characterized by deliberately modelled roundness deviations in the form of ovality, triangularity and quadrangularity. In addition, the research programme has taken into account the determination of the impact of tolerance of the outside diameter of the shaft. Determination of reaction forces has been carried out using the FEM software. The shaft has been modelled as a rigid element that rotates with a given rotational speed in the deformable sleeve. The conclusions present the impact of roundness deviation types and the tolerance value on reaction forces in the connection restraint. The method presented in the article can be used to predict the behaviour of the elements of axisymmetic connections under dynamic load, which can contribute to forecasting the durability of the connection.

  17. Stress relaxation in vanadium under shock and shockless dynamic compression

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanel, G. I.; Razorenov, S. V.; Garkushin, G. V.; Savinykh, A. S.; Zaretsky, E. B.

    2015-01-01

    Evolutions of elastic-plastic waves have been recorded in three series of plate impact experiments with annealed vanadium samples under conditions of shockless and combined ramp and shock dynamic compression. The shaping of incident wave profiles was realized using intermediate base plates made of different silicate glasses through which the compression waves were entered into the samples. Measurements of the free surface velocity histories revealed an apparent growth of the Hugoniot elastic limit with decreasing average rate of compression. The growth was explained by “freezing” of the elastic precursor decay in the area of interaction of the incident and reflected waves. A set of obtained data show that the current value of the Hugoniot elastic limit and plastic strain rate is rather associated with the rate of the elastic precursor decay than with the local rate of compression. The study has revealed the contributions of dislocation multiplications in elastic waves. It has been shown that independently of the compression history the material arrives at the minimum point between the elastic and plastic waves with the same density of mobile dislocations

  18. Continuous Opinion Dynamics Under Bounded Confidence:. a Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorenz, Jan

    Models of continuous opinion dynamics under bounded confidence have been presented independently by Krause and Hegselmann and by Deffuant et al. in 2000. They have raised a fair amount of attention in the communities of social simulation, sociophysics and complexity science. The researchers working on it come from disciplines such as physics, mathematics, computer science, social psychology and philosophy. In these models agents hold continuous opinions which they can gradually adjust if they hear the opinions of others. The idea of bounded confidence is that agents only interact if they are close in opinion to each other. Usually, the models are analyzed with agent-based simulations in a Monte Carlo style, but they can also be reformulated on the agent's density in the opinion space in a master equation style. The contribution of this survey is fourfold. First, it will present the agent-based and density-based modeling frameworks including the cases of multidimensional opinions and heterogeneous bounds of confidence. Second, it will give the bifurcation diagrams of cluster configuration in the homogeneous model with uniformly distributed initial opinions. Third, it will review the several extensions and the evolving phenomena which have been studied so far, and fourth it will state some open questions.

  19. Performance of HEPA filters under hot dynamic conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frankum, D.P.; Costigan, G. [AEA Technology, Oxfordshire (United Kingdom)

    1995-02-01

    Accidents in nuclear facilities involving fires may have implications upon the ventilation systems where high efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filters are used to minimise the airborne release of radioactive or toxic particles. The Filter Development Section at Harwell Laboratory has been investigating the effect of temperature on the performance of HEPA filters under hot dynamic conditions[{sub 1}] for a number of years. The test rig is capable of delivering air flows of 10001/s (at ambient conditions) at temperatures up to 500{degrees}C, where measurements of the penetration and pressure drop across the filter are obtained. This paper reports the experiments on different constructions of HEPA filters; rectangular and circular. The filters were tested at an air temperature of 200{degrees}C for up to 48 hours at the rated airflow to assess their performance. The penetration measurements for rectangular filters were observed to be below 0.021% after prolonged operation. In a number of cases, holes appeared along the pleat creases of circular filters although the penetration remained below 1%. The sealing gasket for these filters was noted to deform with temperature, permitting a leakage path. A prototype high strength circular filter was evaluated at temperatures of up to 400{degrees}C with a penetration less than 0.65%.

  20. An Empirical Study of AI Population Dynamics with Million-agent Reinforcement Learning

    OpenAIRE

    Yang, Yaodong; Yu, Lantao; Bai, Yiwei; Wang, Jun; Zhang, Weinan; Wen, Ying; Yu, Yong

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we conduct an empirical study on discovering the ordered collective dynamics obtained by a population of artificial intelligence (AI) agents. Our intention is to put AI agents into a simulated natural context, and then to understand their induced dynamics at the population level. In particular, we aim to verify if the principles developed in the real world could also be used in understanding an artificially-created intelligent population. To achieve this, we simulate a large-sc...

  1. A new ODE tumor growth modeling based on tumor population dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oroji, Amin; Omar, Mohd bin; Yarahmadian, Shantia

    2015-01-01

    In this paper a new mathematical model for the population of tumor growth treated by radiation is proposed. The cells dynamics population in each state and the dynamics of whole tumor population are studied. Furthermore, a new definition of tumor lifespan is presented. Finally, the effects of two main parameters, treatment parameter (q), and repair mechanism parameter (r) on tumor lifespan are probed, and it is showed that the change in treatment parameter (q) highly affects the tumor lifespan

  2. A new ODE tumor growth modeling based on tumor population dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oroji, Amin; Omar, Mohd bin [Institute of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science University of Malaya, 50603 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia amin.oroji@siswa.um.edu.my, mohd@um.edu.my (Malaysia); Yarahmadian, Shantia [Mathematics Department Mississippi State University, USA Syarahmadian@math.msstate.edu (United States)

    2015-10-22

    In this paper a new mathematical model for the population of tumor growth treated by radiation is proposed. The cells dynamics population in each state and the dynamics of whole tumor population are studied. Furthermore, a new definition of tumor lifespan is presented. Finally, the effects of two main parameters, treatment parameter (q), and repair mechanism parameter (r) on tumor lifespan are probed, and it is showed that the change in treatment parameter (q) highly affects the tumor lifespan.

  3. Distinct retrosplenial cortex cell populations and their spike dynamics during ketamine-induced unconscious state.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grace E Fox

    Full Text Available Ketamine is known to induce psychotic-like symptoms, including delirium and visual hallucinations. It also causes neuronal damage and cell death in the retrosplenial cortex (RSC, an area that is thought to be a part of high visual cortical pathways and at least partially responsible for ketamine's psychotomimetic activities. However, the basic physiological properties of RSC cells as well as their response to ketamine in vivo remained largely unexplored. Here, we combine a computational method, the Inter-Spike Interval Classification Analysis (ISICA, and in vivo recordings to uncover and profile excitatory cell subtypes within layers 2&3 and 5&6 of the RSC in mice within both conscious, sleep, and ketamine-induced unconscious states. We demonstrate two distinct excitatory principal cell sub-populations, namely, high-bursting excitatory principal cells and low-bursting excitatory principal cells, within layers 2&3, and show that this classification is robust over the conscious states, namely quiet awake, and natural unconscious sleep periods. Similarly, we provide evidence of high-bursting and low-bursting excitatory principal cell sub-populations within layers 5&6 that remained distinct during quiet awake and sleep states. We further examined how these subtypes are dynamically altered by ketamine. During ketamine-induced unconscious state, these distinct excitatory principal cell subtypes in both layer 2&3 and layer 5&6 exhibited distinct dynamics. We also uncovered different dynamics of local field potential under various brain states in layer 2&3 and layer 5&6. Interestingly, ketamine administration induced high gamma oscillations in layer 2&3 of the RSC, but not layer 5&6. Our results show that excitatory principal cells within RSC layers 2&3 and 5&6 contain multiple physiologically distinct sub-populations, and they are differentially affected by ketamine.

  4. Word class and context affect alpha-band oscillatory dynamics in an older population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monika eMellem

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Differences in the oscillatory EEG dynamics of reading open class and closed class words have previously been found (Bastiaansen et al., 2005 and are thought to reflect differences in lexical-semantic content between these word classes. In particular, the theta band (4–7 Hz seems to play a prominent role in lexical-semantic retrieval. We tested whether this theta effect is robust in an older population of subjects. Additionally, we examined how the context of a word can modulate the oscillatory dynamics underlying retrieval for the two different classes of words. Older participants (mean age 55 read words presented in either syntactically-correct sentences or in a scrambled order (scrambled sentence while their EEG was recorded. We performed time-frequency analysis to examine how power varied based on the context or class of the word. We observed larger power decreases in the alpha (8–12Hz band between 200–700 ms for the open class compared to closed class words, but this was true only for the scrambled sentence context. We did not observe differences in theta power between these conditions. Context exerted an effect on the alpha and low beta (13–18 Hz bands between 0–700 ms. These results suggest that the previously observed word class effects on theta power changes in a younger participant sample do not seem to be a robust effect in this older population. Though this is an indirect comparison between studies, it may suggest the existence of aging effects on word retrieval dynamics for different populations. Additionally, the interaction between word class and context suggests that word retrieval mechanisms interact with sentence-level comprehension mechanisms in the alpha band.

  5. Lineage dynamics and mutation-selection balance in non-adapting asexual populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pénisson, Sophie; Sniegowski, Paul D.; Colato, Alexandre; Gerrish, Philip J.

    2013-02-01

    In classical population genetics, mutation-selection balance refers to the equilibrium frequency of a deleterious allele established and maintained under two opposing forces: recurrent mutation, which tends to increase the frequency of the allele; and selection, which tends to decrease its frequency. In a haploid population, if μ denotes the per capita rate of production of the deleterious allele by mutation and s denotes the selective disadvantage of carrying the allele, then the classical mutation-selection balance frequency of the allele is approximated by μ/s. This calculation assumes that lineages carrying the mutant allele in question—the ‘focal allele’—do not accumulate deleterious mutations linked to the focal allele. In principle, indirect selection against the focal allele caused by such additional mutations can decrease the frequency of the focal allele below the classical mutation-selection balance. This effect of indirect selection will be strongest in an asexual population, in which the entire genome is in linkage. Here, we use an approach based on a multitype branching process to investigate this effect, analyzing lineage dynamics under mutation, direct selection, and indirect selection in a non-adapting asexual population. We find that the equilibrium balance between recurrent mutation to the focal allele and the forces of direct and indirect selection against the focal allele is closely approximated by γμ/(s + U) (s = 0 if the focal allele is neutral), where γ ≈ eθθ-(ω+θ)(ω + θ)(Γ(ω + θ) - Γ(ω + θ,θ)), \\theta =U/\\tilde {s}, and \\omega =s/\\tilde {s}; U denotes the genomic deleterious mutation rate and \\tilde {s} denotes the geometric mean selective disadvantage of deleterious mutations elsewhere on the genome. This mutation-selection balance for asexual populations can remain surprisingly invariant over wide ranges of the mutation rate.

  6. The dynamics of pine forests in Prebaikalia under anthropogenic impact

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. A. Mikhailova

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Analyzed and generalized were the results of prolonged (10–25 years monitoring of condition pine Pinus sylvestris L. forests affected by technogenic pollution and high recreation load in the South Prebaikalia. The results show that both factors have similarity in the stress effect on pine tree-stands, as confirmed by alteration in morphometric parameters of tree assimilating phytomass, decrease in photosynthetic pigments level, as well as by disturbance the nutrient elements proportions in the needles. As tree crown defoliation level reaches 65–70 %, the morphometric parameters for shoots and needles are found to decrease the background level by in 1.3–4.5 times. Under technogenic pollution, the needles’ chlorophylls sum was reduced 2.8–3.5 times, level of carotenoides – to 3.9 times maximum in comparison with the background needles while under high recreation load the green pigments content was reduced 1.9–5.7 times, carotenoids content – to 5.5 times. There is a imbalance in quantitative proportions between nutritional elements under any type of stress, N : P : K proportion changes due to increase of nitrogen level and reduction of phosphorus and potassium level. Index of tree-stand vital condition was calculated on the basis of the representative parameters to analyze the long forest dynamics. Significant reduction was shown in the index in the present time and correspondingly the obvious tendency to pine forest decline in the territories polluted by Irkutsk, Shelekhov, and Angarsk-Usolie industrial centers. At the same time near Cheremkhovo and Sayansk-Zima centers there are not heavy changes in the forest’s condition; during long time a middle level of weakening is registered but in the distance 20 km – a low level of weakening. In the territories characterized by a high recreation load, a sharp trend to declining pine tree-stands vital condition was found, and most clearly it is expressed in the towns of Khuzhir (Olkhon

  7. Intraspecific Competition and Population Dynamics of Aedes aegypti

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paixão, C. A.; Charret, I. C.; Lima, R. R.

    2012-04-01

    We report computational simulations for the evolution of the population of the dengue vector, Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. The results suggest that controlling the mosquito population, on the basis of intraspecific competition at the larval stage, can be an efficient mechanism for controlling the spread of the epidemic. The results also show the presence of a kind of genetic evolution in vector population, which results mainly in increasing the average lifespan of individuals in adulthood.

  8. Data Driven Approach for High Resolution Population Distribution and Dynamics Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bhaduri, Budhendra L [ORNL; Bright, Eddie A [ORNL; Rose, Amy N [ORNL; Liu, Cheng [ORNL; Urban, Marie L [ORNL; Stewart, Robert N [ORNL

    2014-01-01

    High resolution population distribution data are vital for successfully addressing critical issues ranging from energy and socio-environmental research to public health to human security. Commonly available population data from Census is constrained both in space and time and does not capture population dynamics as functions of space and time. This imposes a significant limitation on the fidelity of event-based simulation models with sensitive space-time resolution. This paper describes ongoing development of high-resolution population distribution and dynamics models, at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, through spatial data integration and modeling with behavioral or activity-based mobility datasets for representing temporal dynamics of population. The model is resolved at 1 km resolution globally and describes the U.S. population for nighttime and daytime at 90m. Integration of such population data provides the opportunity to develop simulations and applications in critical infrastructure management from local to global scales.

  9. High population variability and source-sink dynamics in a solitary bee species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franzén, Markus; Nilsson, Sven G

    2013-06-01

    Although solitary bees are considered to play key roles in ecosystem functions, surprisingly few studies have explored their population dynamics. We investigated the population dynamics of a rare, declining, solitary bee (Andrena humilis) in a landscape of 80 km2 in southern Sweden from 2003 to 2011. Only one population was persistent throughout all years studied; most likely this population supplied the surrounding landscape with 11 smaller, temporary local populations. Despite stable pollen availability, the size of the persistent population fluctuated dramatically in a two-year cycle over the nine years, with 490-1230 nests in odd-numbered years and 21-48 nests in even-numbered years. These fluctuations were not significantly related to climatic variables or pollen availability. Nineteen colonization and 14 extinction events were recorded. Occupancy decreased with distance from the persistent population and increased with increasing resource (pollen) availability. There were significant positive correlations between the size of the persistent population and patch occupancy and colonization. Colonizations were generally more common in patches closer to the persistent population, whereas extinctions were independent of distance from the persistent population. Our results highlight the complex population dynamics that exist for this solitary bee species, which could be due to source-sink dynamics, a prolonged diapause, or can represent a bet-hedging strategy to avoid natural enemies and survive in small habitat patches. If large fluctuations in solitary bee populations prove to be widespread, it will have important implications for interpreting ecological relationships, bee conservation, and pollination.

  10. Effects of seven diets on the population dynamics of laboratory cultured Tisbe holothuriae Humes (Copepoda, Harpacticoida)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miliou, H.; Moraïtou-Apostolopoulou, M.

    1991-09-01

    The harpacticoid copepod Tisbe holothuriae was collected from Saronicos Gulf (Greece) and reared under constant laboratory conditions. In order to study the effects of food on the population dynamics, seven diets were tested: the seaweed Ulva; five artificial compound feeds: the liquid Fryfood® (Waterlife), a powder of Mytilus, yeast, soya and Spirulina, respectively; and a mixed diet consisting of Ulva and Fryfood. The life cycle parameters (mortality, sex ratio, generation time, offspring production) were measured, and the demographic variables [mean generation time (T), net reproductive rate (Ro), and intrinsic rate of natural increase (rm)] were determined. As to their efficiency regarding population dynamics, the diets ranked as follows: (1) Ulva+Fryfood, (2), Ulva, (3) Fryfood, (4) Mytilus, (5) soya, (6) yeast, and (7) Spirulina. In this order they cause a progressive increase of both larval mortality and generation time, a progressive decrease of sex ratio, number of offspring per egg sac, number of egg sacs per female and, consequently, of Ro and rm. The observed differences between diets were most pronounced with respect to offspring production. Of the compound diets, those containing animal extracts were more efficient than those containing vegetable materials. Ulva plays an important role in the nutrition of T. holothuriae, favouring offspring production as well as larval survival, development and pigmentation. Ulva in combination with Fryfood led to a greater copepodid survival and offspring production. This mixed diet proved to be the most favourable for rearing the Greek population of t. holothuriae, resulting in an efficient intrinsic rate of natural increase (rm=0.304) of the population.

  11. Mapping Application for Penguin Populations and Projected Dynamics (MAPPPD): Data and Tools for Dynamic Management and Decision Support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Humphries, G. R. W.; Naveen, R.; Schwaller, M.; Che-Castaldo, C.; McDowall, P.; Schrimpf, M.; Schrimpf, Michael; Lynch, H. J.

    2017-01-01

    The Mapping Application for Penguin Populations and Projected Dynamics (MAPPPD) is a web-based, open access, decision-support tool designed to assist scientists, non-governmental organizations and policy-makers working to meet the management objectives as set forth by the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) and other components of the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS) (that is, Consultative Meetings and the ATS Committee on Environmental Protection). MAPPPD was designed specifically to complement existing efforts such as the CCAMLR Ecosystem Monitoring Program (CEMP) and the ATS site guidelines for visitors. The database underlying MAPPPD includes all publicly available (published and unpublished) count data on emperor, gentoo, Adelie) and chinstrap penguins in Antarctica. Penguin population models are used to assimilate available data into estimates of abundance for each site and year.Results are easily aggregated across multiple sites to obtain abundance estimates over any user-defined area of interest. A front end web interface located at www.penguinmap.com provides free and ready access to the most recent count and modelled data, and can act as a facilitator for data transfer between scientists and Antarctic stakeholders to help inform management decisions for the continent.

  12. An examination of the population dynamics of syngnathid fishes within Tampa Bay, Florida, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heather D. MASONJONES, Emily ROSE, Lori Benson McRAE,Danielle L. DIXSON

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Seagrass ecosystems worldwide have been declining, leading to a decrease in associated fish populations, especially those with low mobility such as syngnathids (pipefish and seahorses. This two-year pilot study investigated seasonal patterns in density, growth, site fidelity, and population dynamics of Tampa Bay (FL syngnathid fishes at a site adjacent to two marinas under construction. Using a modified mark-recapture technique, fish were collected periodically from three closely located sites that varied in seagrass species (Thalassia spp., Syringodium spp., and mixed-grass sites and their distance from open water, but had consistent physical/chemical environmental characteristics. Fish were marked, photographed for body size and gender measurements, and released the same day at the capture site. Of the 5695 individuals surveyed, 49 individuals were recaptured, indicating a large, flexible population. Population density peaks were observed in July of both years, with low densities in late winter and late summer. Spatially, syngnathid densities were highest closest to the mouth of the bay and lowest near the shoreline. Seven species of syngnathid fishes were observed, and species-specific patterns of seagrass use emerged during the study. However, only two species, Syngnathus scovelli and Hippocampus zosterae, were observed at high frequencies. For these two species, body size decreased across the study period, but while S. scovelli’s population density decreased, H. zosterae’s increased. Across six of the seven species, population size declined over the course of this preliminary study; however, seasonal shifts were impossible to distinguish from potential anthropogenic effects of construction [Current Zoology 56 (1: 118–133, 2010].

  13. Dynamic energy budgets in population ecotoxicology: applications and outlook.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jager, T.; Barsi, A.; Hamda, N.T.; Martin, B.; Zimmer, E.I.; Ducrot, V.

    2014-01-01

    Most of the experimental testing in ecotoxicology takes place at the individual level, but the protection goals for environmental risk assessment are at the population level (or higher). Population modelling can fill this gap, but only models on a mechanistic basis allow for extrapolation beyond the

  14. Demographic processes in a local population: seasonal dynamics of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... differences in daily recruitment and within-patch survival rates. Males were most abundant relative to females early in the season, indicating protandry. Total adult population size was small and showed dramatic variation between the two years, indicating how vulnerable the local population is to demographic extinction.

  15. Population Dynamics and Natural Resources in the Volta in the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Also, population growth is causing shortfalls in agricultural land, deforestation and high demand on water resources in some of the sub-basins of the Volta River Keywords: Population, Natural resources, Volta River Basin, Human Settlement Land Use/Coverage Change Ghana Journal of Development Studies Vol.

  16. Termite Population Dynamics in Arenic Kandiudults as Influenced by ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Result shows that carbofuran significantly (P=<0.0001) recorded least termite population per square meter after tuber harvest, whereas A. indica leaves and municipal waste increased termite population per square meter. Also, cassava tuber yield was significantly influenced with application of A. indica leaves and ...

  17. The Effects of Predator Evolution and Genetic Variation on Predator-Prey Population-Level Dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cortez, Michael H; Patel, Swati

    2017-07-01

    This paper explores how predator evolution and the magnitude of predator genetic variation alter the population-level dynamics of predator-prey systems. We do this by analyzing a general eco-evolutionary predator-prey model using four methods: Method 1 identifies how eco-evolutionary feedbacks alter system stability in the fast and slow evolution limits; Method 2 identifies how the amount of standing predator genetic variation alters system stability; Method 3 identifies how the phase lags in predator-prey cycles depend on the amount of genetic variation; and Method 4 determines conditions for different cycle shapes in the fast and slow evolution limits using geometric singular perturbation theory. With these four methods, we identify the conditions under which predator evolution alters system stability and shapes of predator-prey cycles, and how those effect depend on the amount of genetic variation in the predator population. We discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each method and the relations between the four methods. This work shows how the four methods can be used in tandem to make general predictions about eco-evolutionary dynamics and feedbacks.

  18. Investigation of Balance Function Using Dynamic Posturography under Electrical-Acoustic Stimulation in Cochlear Implant Recipients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Schwab

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. The purpose of the present study is to investigate the effect of electrical-acoustic stimulation on vestibular function in CI patients by using the EquiTest and to help answer the question of whether electrically stimulating the inner ear using a cochlear implant influences the balance system in any way. Material and Methods. A test population (=50 was selected at random from among the cochlear implant recipients. Dynamic posturography (using the EquiTest was performed with the device switched off an switched on. Results. In summary, it can be said that an activated cochlear implant affects the function of the vestibular system and may, to an extent, even lead to a stabilization of balance function under the static conditions of dynamic posturography, but nevertheless also to a significant destabilization. Significant improvements in vestibular function were seen mainly in equilibrium scores under conditions 4 and 5, the composite equilibrium score, and the vestibular components as revealed by sensory analysis. Conclusions. Only under the static conditions are significantly poorer scores achieved when stimulation is applied. It may be that the explanation for any symptoms of dizziness lies precisely in the fact that they occur in supposedly noncritical situations, since, when the cochlear implant makes increased demands on the balance system, induced disturbances can be centrally suppressed.

  19. Population density of Beauveria bassiana in soil under the action of fungicides and native microbial populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flávia Barbosa Soares

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated whether populations of naturally-occurring soil bacteria, fungi and actinomycetes influence the effect of fungicides on the survival and growth of Beauveria bassiana. The toxicity of methyl thiophanate, pyraclostrobin, mancozeb and copper oxychloride at the recommended doses was analyzed in culture medium and in soil inoculated with fungus at various time points after addition of fungicides. All fungicides completely inhibited the growth and sporulation of B. bassiana in the culture medium. The fungicides were less toxic in soil, emphasizing the action of the microbial populations, which interfered with the toxic effects of these products to the fungus. Actinomycetes had the greatest influence on the entomopathogen, inhibiting it or degrading the fungicides to contribute to the survival and growth of B. bassiana in soil. Native populations of fungi and bacteria had a smaller influence on the population density of B. bassiana and the action of fungicides towards entomopathogen. The toxic effect of the fungicides was greater when added to the soil one hour before or after inoculation than at 48h after inoculation.

  20. Spatio-temporal dynamics of a fish predator: Density-dependent and hydrographic effects on Baltic Sea cod population.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valerio Bartolino

    Full Text Available Understanding the mechanisms of spatial population dynamics is crucial for the successful management of exploited species and ecosystems. However, the underlying mechanisms of spatial distribution are generally complex due to the concurrent forcing of both density-dependent species interactions and density-independent environmental factors. Despite the high economic value and central ecological importance of cod in the Baltic Sea, the drivers of its spatio-temporal population dynamics have not been analytically investigated so far. In this paper, we used an extensive trawl survey dataset in combination with environmental data to investigate the spatial dynamics of the distribution of the Eastern Baltic cod during the past three decades using Generalized Additive Models. The results showed that adult cod distribution was mainly affected by cod population size, and to a minor degree by small-scale hydrological factors and the extent of suitable reproductive areas. As population size decreases, the cod population concentrates to the southern part of the Baltic Sea, where the preferred more marine environment conditions are encountered. Using the fitted models, we predicted the Baltic cod distribution back to the 1970s and a temporal index of cod spatial occupation was developed. Our study will contribute to the management and conservation of this important resource and of the ecosystem where it occurs, by showing the forces shaping its spatial distribution and therefore the potential response of the population to future exploitation and environmental changes.

  1. Use of Mobile Device Data To Better Estimate Dynamic Population Size for Wastewater-Based Epidemiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Kevin V; Amador, Arturo; Baz-Lomba, Jose Antonio; Reid, Malcolm

    2017-10-03

    Wastewater-based epidemiology is an established approach for quantifying community drug use and has recently been applied to estimate population exposure to contaminants such as pesticides and phthalate plasticizers. A major source of uncertainty in the population weighted biomarker loads generated is related to estimating the number of people present in a sewer catchment at the time of sample collection. Here, the population quantified from mobile device-based population activity patterns was used to provide dynamic population normalized loads of illicit drugs and pharmaceuticals during a known period of high net fluctuation in the catchment population. Mobile device-based population activity patterns have for the first time quantified the high degree of intraday, week, and month variability within a specific sewer catchment. Dynamic population normalization showed that per capita pharmaceutical use remained unchanged during the period when static normalization would have indicated an average reduction of up to 31%. Per capita illicit drug use increased significantly during the monitoring period, an observation that was only possible to measure using dynamic population normalization. The study quantitatively confirms previous assessments that population estimates can account for uncertainties of up to 55% in static normalized data. Mobile device-based population activity patterns allow for dynamic normalization that yields much improved temporal and spatial trend analysis.

  2. Increasing weather-related impacts on European population under climate and demographic change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forzieri, Giovanni; Cescatti, Alessandro; Batista e Silva, Filipe; Kovats, Sari R.; Feyen, Luc

    2017-04-01

    Over the last three decades the overwhelming majority of disasters have been caused by weather-related events. The observed rise in weather-related disaster losses has been largely attributed to increased exposure and to a lesser degree to global warming. Recent studies suggest an intensification in the climatology of multiple weather extremes in Europe over the coming decades in view of climate change, while urbanization continues. In view of these pressures, understanding and quantifying the potential impacts of extreme weather events on future societies is imperative in order to identify where and to what extent their livelihoods will be at risk in the future, and develop timely and effective adaptation and disaster risk reduction strategies. Here we show a comprehensive assessment of single- and multi-hazard impacts on the European population until the year 2100. For this purpose, we developed a novel methodology that quantifies the human impacts as a multiplicative function of hazard, exposure and population vulnerability. We focus on seven of the most impacting weather-related hazards - including heat and cold waves, wildfires, droughts, river and coastal floods and windstorms - and evaluated their spatial and temporal variations in intensity and frequency under a business-as-usual climate scenario. Long-term demographic dynamics were modelled to assess exposure developments under a corresponding middle-of-the-road scenario. Vulnerability of humans to weather extremes was appraised based on more than 2300 records of weather-related disasters. The integration of these elements provides a range of plausible estimates of extreme weather-related risks for future European generations. Expected impacts on population are quantified in terms of fatalities and number of people exposed. We find a staggering rise in fatalities from extreme weather events, with the projected death toll by the end of the century amounting to more than 50 times the present number of people

  3. The 'Natural Laboratory', a tool for deciphering growth, lifetime and population dynamics in larger benthic foraminifera

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hohenegger, Johann

    2015-04-01

    The shells of symbiont-bearing larger benthic Foraminifera (LBF) represent the response to physiological requirements in dependence of environmental conditions. All compartments of the shell such as chambers and chamberlets accommodate the growth of the cell protoplasm and are adaptations for housing photosymbiotic algae. Investigations on the biology of LBF were predominantly based on laboratory studies. The lifetime of LBF under natural conditions is still unclear. LBF, which can build >100 chambers during their lifetime, are thought to live at least one year under natural conditions. This is supported by studies on population dynamics of eulittoral foraminifera. In species characterized by a time-restricted single reproduction period the mean size of specimens increases from small to large during lifetime simultaneously reducing individual number. This becomes more complex when two or more reproduction times are present within a one-year cycle leading to a mixture of abundant small individuals with few large specimens during the year, while keeping mean size more or less constant. This mixture is typical for most sublittoral megalospheric (gamonts or schizonts) LBF. Nothing is known on the lifetime of agamonts, the diploid asexually reproducing generation. In all hyaline LBF it is thought to be significantly longer than 1 year based on the large size and considering the mean chamber building rate of the gamont/schizonts. Observations on LBF under natural conditions have not been performed yet in the deeper sublittoral. This reflects the difficulties due to intense hydrodynamics that hinder deploying technical equipment for studies in the natural environment. Therefore, studying growth, lifetime and reproduction of sublittoral LBF under natural conditions can be performed using the so-called 'natural laboratory' in comparison with laboratory investigations. The best sampling method in the upper sublittoral from 5 to 70 m depth is by SCUBA diving. Irregular

  4. Population dynamics in changing environments: the case of an eruptive forest pest species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kausrud, Kyrre; Okland, Bjørn; Skarpaas, Olav; Grégoire, Jean-Claude; Erbilgin, Nadir; Stenseth, Nils Chr

    2012-02-01

    In recent decades we have seen rapid and co-occurring changes in landscape structure, species distributions and even climate as consequences of human activity. Such changes affect the dynamics of the interaction between major forest pest species, such as bark beetles (Coleoptera: Curculionidae, Scolytinae), and their host trees. Normally breeding mostly in broken or severely stressed spruce; at high population densities some bark beetle species can colonise and kill healthy trees on scales ranging from single trees in a stand to multi-annual landscape-wide outbreaks. In Eurasia, the largest outbreaks are caused by the spruce bark beetle, Ips typographus (Linnaeus), which is common and shares a wide distribution with its main host, Norway spruce (Picea abies Karst.). A large literature is now available, from which this review aims to synthesize research relevant for the population dynamics of I. typographus and co-occurring species under changing conditions. We find that spruce bark beetle population dynamics tend to be metastable, but that mixed-species and age-heterogeneous forests with good site-matching tend to be less susceptible to large-scale outbreaks. While large accumulations of logs should be removed and/or debarked before the next swarming period, intensive removal of all coarse dead wood may be counterproductive, as it reduces the diversity of predators that in some areas may play a role in keeping I. typographus populations below the outbreak threshold, and sanitary logging frequently causes edge effects and root damage, reducing the resistance of remaining trees. It is very hard to predict the outcome of interspecific interactions due to invading beetle species or I. typographus establishing outside its current range, as they can be of varying sign and strength and may fluctuate depending on environmental factors and population phase. Most research indicates that beetle outbreaks will increase in frequency and magnitude as temperature, wind speed and

  5. Extinction dynamics of a discrete population in an oasis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berti, Stefano; Cencini, Massimo; Vergni, Davide; Vulpiani, Angelo

    2015-07-01

    Understanding the conditions ensuring the persistence of a population is an issue of primary importance in population biology. The first theoretical approach to the problem dates back to the 1950s with the Kierstead, Slobodkin, and Skellam (KiSS) model, namely a continuous reaction-diffusion equation for a population growing on a patch of finite size L surrounded by a deadly environment with infinite mortality, i.e., an oasis in a desert. The main outcome of the model is that only patches above a critical size allow for population persistence. Here we introduce an individual-based analog of the KiSS model to investigate the effects of discreteness and demographic stochasticity. In particular, we study the average time to extinction both above and below the critical patch size of the continuous model and investigate the quasistationary distribution of the number of individuals for patch sizes above the critical threshold.

  6. POPULATION DYNAMICS OF SMALL MAMMALS ACROSS A NITROGEN AMENDED LANDSCAPE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biogeochemical alterations of the nitrogen cycle from anthropogenic activities could have significant effects on ecological processes at the population, community and ecosystem levels. Nitrogen additions in grasslands have produced qualitative and quantitative changes in vegetat...

  7. Do we need demographic data to forecast plant population dynamics?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tredennick, Andrew T.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Adler, Peter B.

    2017-01-01

    Rapid environmental change has generated growing interest in forecasts of future population trajectories. Traditional population models built with detailed demographic observations from one study site can address the impacts of environmental change at particular locations, but are difficult to scale up to the landscape and regional scales relevant to management decisions. An alternative is to build models using population-level data that are much easier to collect over broad spatial scales than individual-level data. However, it is unknown whether models built using population-level data adequately capture the effects of density-dependence and environmental forcing that are necessary to generate skillful forecasts.Here, we test the consequences of aggregating individual responses when forecasting the population states (percent cover) and trajectories of four perennial grass species in a semi-arid grassland in Montana, USA. We parameterized two population models for each species, one based on individual-level data (survival, growth and recruitment) and one on population-level data (percent cover), and compared their forecasting accuracy and forecast horizons with and without the inclusion of climate covariates. For both models, we used Bayesian ridge regression to weight the influence of climate covariates for optimal prediction.In the absence of climate effects, we found no significant difference between the forecast accuracy of models based on individual-level data and models based on population-level data. Climate effects were weak, but increased forecast accuracy for two species. Increases in accuracy with climate covariates were similar between model types.In our case study, percent cover models generated forecasts as accurate as those from a demographic model. For the goal of forecasting, models based on aggregated individual-level data may offer a practical alternative to data-intensive demographic models. Long time series of percent cover data already exist

  8. The impact of rapid evolution on population dynamics in the wild: experimental test of eco-evolutionary dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turcotte, Martin M; Reznick, David N; Hare, J Daniel

    2011-11-01

    Rapid evolution challenges the assumption that evolution is too slow to impact short-term ecological dynamics. This insight motivates the study of 'Eco-Evolutionary Dynamics' or how evolution and ecological processes reciprocally interact on short time scales. We tested how rapid evolution impacts concurrent population dynamics using an aphid (Myzus persicae) and an undomesticated host (Hirschfeldia incana) in replicated wild populations. We manipulated evolvability by creating non-evolving (single clone) and potentially evolving (two-clone) aphid populations that contained genetic variation in intrinsic growth rate. We observed significant evolution in two-clone populations whether or not they were exposed to predators and competitors. Evolving populations grew up to 42% faster and attained up to 67% higher density, compared with non-evolving control populations but only in treatments exposed to competitors and predators. Increased density also correlates with relative fitness of competing clones suggesting a full eco-evolutionary dynamic cycle defined as reciprocal interactions between evolution and density. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

  9. Chaotic population dynamics and biology of the top-predator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rai, Vikas; Upadhyay, Ranjit Kumar

    2004-01-01

    We study how the dynamics of a food chain depends on the biology of the top-predator. We consider two model food chains with specialist and generalist top-predators. Both types of food chains display same type of chaotic behavior, short-term recurrent chaos; but the generating mechanisms are drastically different. Food chains with specialist top-predators are dictated by exogenous stochastic factors. On the contrary, the dynamics of those with the generalist top-predator is governed by deterministic changes in system parameters. The study also suggests that robust chaos would be a rarity

  10. Population-level consequences of herbivory, changing climate, and source-sink dynamics on a long-lived invasive shrub.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Klinken, R D; Pichancourt, J B

    2015-12-01

    Long-lived plant species are highly valued environmentally, economically, and socially, but can also cause substantial harm as invaders. Realistic demographic predictions can guide management decisions, and are particularly valuable for long-lived species where population response times can be long. Long-lived species are also challenging, given population dynamics can be affected by factors as diverse as herbivory, climate, and dispersal. We developed a matrix model to evaluate the effects of herbivory by a leaf-feeding biological control agent released in Australia against a long-lived invasive shrub (mesquite, Leguminoseae: Prosopis spp.). The stage-structured, density-dependent model used an annual time step and 10 climatically diverse years of field data. Mesquite population demography is sensitive to source-sink dynamics as most seeds are consumed and redistributed spatially by livestock. In addition, individual mesquite plants, because they are long lived, experience natural climate variation that cycles over decadal scales, as well as anthropogenic climate change. The model therefore explicitly considered the effects of both net dispersal and climate variation. Herbivory strongly regulated mesquite populations through reduced growth and fertility, but additional mortality of older plants will be required to reach management goals within a reasonable time frame. Growth and survival of seeds and seedlings were correlated with daily soil moisture. As a result, population dynamics were sensitive to rainfall scenario, but population response times were typically slow (20-800 years to reach equilibrium or extinction) due to adult longevity. Equilibrium population densities were expected to remain 5% higher, and be more dynamic, if historical multi-decadal climate patterns persist, the effect being dampened by herbivory suppressing seed production irrespective of preceding rainfall. Dense infestations were unlikely to form under a drier climate, and required net

  11. Causes and consequences of complex population dynamics in an annual plant, Cardamine pensylvanica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crone, E.E.

    1995-11-08

    The relative importance of density-dependent and density-independent factors in determining the population dynamics of plants has been widely debated with little resolution. In this thesis, the author explores the effects of density-dependent population regulation on population dynamics in Cardamine pensylvanica, an annual plant. In the first chapter, she shows that experimental populations of C. pensylvanica cycled from high to low density in controlled constant-environment conditions. These cycles could not be explained by external environmental changes or simple models of direct density dependence (N{sub t+1} = f[N{sub t}]), but they could be explained by delayed density dependence (N{sub t+1} = f[N{sub t}, N{sub t+1}]). In the second chapter, she shows that the difference in the stability properties of population growth models with and without delayed density dependence is due to the presence of Hopf as well as slip bifurcations from stable to chaotic population dynamics. She also measures delayed density dependence due to effects of parental density on offspring quality in C. pensylvanica and shows that this is large enough to be the cause of the population dynamics observed in C. pensylvanica. In the third chapter, the author extends her analyses of density-dependent population growth models to include interactions between competing species. In the final chapter, she compares the effects of fixed spatial environmental variation and variation in population size on the evolutionary response of C. pensylvanica populations.

  12. Population dynamics of Aphis gossypii Glover and in sole and intercropping systems of cotton and cowpea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandes, Francisco S; Godoy, Wesley A C; Ramalho, Francisco S; Garcia, Adriano G; Santos, Bárbara D B; Malaquias, José B

    2018-01-01

    Population dynamics of aphids have been studied in sole and intercropping systems. These studies have required the use of more precise analytical tools in order to better understand patterns in quantitative data. Mathematical models are among the most important tools to explain the dynamics of insect populations. This study investigated the population dynamics of aphids Aphis gossypii and Aphis craccivora over time, using mathematical models composed of a set of differential equations as a helpful analytical tool to understand the population dynamics of aphids in arrangements of cotton and cowpea. The treatments were sole cotton, sole cowpea, and three arrangements of cotton intercropped with cowpea (t1, t2 and t3). The plants were infested with two aphid species and were evaluated at 7, 14, 28, 35, 42, and 49 days after the infestations. Mathematical models were used to fit the population dynamics of two aphid species. There were good fits for aphid dynamics by mathematical model over time. The highest population peak of both species A. gossypii and A. craccivora was found in the sole crops, and the lowest population peak was found in crop system t2. These results are important for integrated management programs of aphids in cotton and cowpea.

  13. The demographic drivers of local population dynamics in two rare migratory birds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaub, Michael; Reichlin, Thomas S; Abadi, Fitsum; Kéry, Marc; Jenni, Lukas; Arlettaz, Raphaël

    2012-01-01

    The exchange of individuals among populations can have strong effects on the dynamics and persistence of a given population. Yet, estimation of immigration rates remains one of the greatest challenges for animal demographers. Little empirical knowledge exists about the effects of immigration on population dynamics. New integrated population models fitted using Bayesian methods enable simultaneous estimation of fecundity, survival and immigration, as well as the growth rate of a population of interest. We applied this novel analytical framework to the demography of two populations of long-distance migratory birds, hoopoe Upupa epops and wryneck Jynx torquilla, in a study area in south-western Switzerland. During 2002-2010, the hoopoe population increased annually by 11%, while the wryneck population remained fairly stable. Apparent juvenile and adult survival probability was nearly identical in both species, but fecundity and immigration were slightly higher in the hoopoe. Hoopoe population growth rate was strongly correlated with juvenile survival, fecundity and immigration, while that of wrynecks strongly correlated only with immigration. This indicates that demographic components impacting the arrival of new individuals into the populations were more important for their dynamics than demographic components affecting the loss of individuals. The finding that immigration plays a crucial role in the population growth rates of these two rare species emphasizes the need for a broad rather than local perspective for population studies, and the development of wide-scale conservation actions.

  14. Von Bertalanffy's dynamics under a polynomial correction: Allee effect and big bang bifurcation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonel Rocha, J.; Taha, A. K.; Fournier-Prunaret, D.

    2016-02-01

    In this work we consider new one-dimensional populational discrete dynamical systems in which the growth of the population is described by a family of von Bertalanffy's functions, as a dynamical approach to von Bertalanffy's growth equation. The purpose of introducing Allee effect in those models is satisfied under a correction factor of polynomial type. We study classes of von Bertalanffy's functions with different types of Allee effect: strong and weak Allee's functions. Dependent on the variation of four parameters, von Bertalanffy's functions also includes another class of important functions: functions with no Allee effect. The complex bifurcation structures of these von Bertalanffy's functions is investigated in detail. We verified that this family of functions has particular bifurcation structures: the big bang bifurcation of the so-called “box-within-a-box” type. The big bang bifurcation is associated to the asymptotic weight or carrying capacity. This work is a contribution to the study of the big bang bifurcation analysis for continuous maps and their relationship with explosion birth and extinction phenomena.

  15. Coherent population dynamics of a three-level atom in spacetime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Netz, R.; Sauerbrey, R.; Feurer, T.; Roberts, G.

    2002-01-01

    This work explores temporal and spatial aspects of coherent population transfer in a three-level atom through a synergic combination of experimental measurements and theoretical calculations. Experimental measurements exploit the broad bandwidth of a femtosecond laser pulse to initiate simultaneous excitation of the 5p 2 P 1/2 2 S 1/2 and 5p 2 P 3/2 2 S 1/2 components of the doublet line of atomic rubidium. By adjusting positive or negative frequency sweeps the pump pulse favors either one of the two transitions and eventually even decouples the two excited states. The population of the excited spin-orbit levels is monitored in real time by stimulated emission probing under conditions of different intensity, chirp, and pulse width of the driving field, giving detailed information on the coupling between the three levels and their interactions with the driving and probe fields at different points in spacetime. Both pump and probe pulses are carefully characterized after the interaction region by frequency-resolved optical gating. In order to interpret and understand the experimental results it is essential to consider the close relationship between pulse propagation and time evolution of the atomic system via the coupled Maxwell-Bloch equations. This analysis highlights the importance of spatial propagation of the light fields, as well as their temporal dependence, in understanding the dynamical population evolution, and quantitatively reproduces all aspects of the experimental measurements

  16. Climate change and population dynamics during the late Mesolithic and the Neolithic transition in Iberia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javier Fernández López de Pablo

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores how Early Holocene climate changes in the Western Mediterranean would have affected Late Mesolithic settlement distribution and subsistence strategies in Iberian Peninsula, thereby giving rise to various adaptive scenarios. The current radiocarbon data set concerning the Neolithisation process has revealed the rapidity of the spread of farming in Iberia. Considering both the implications of the last hunter-gatherers’ adaptation strategies and the population dynamics of agro-pastoral communities, we address the migration patterns underlying the Mesolithic- Neolithic transition. In conclusion, we propose that the initial colonization process was the result of two successive and spatially heterogeneous migrations: Maritime Pioneer Colonization and targeted migration to places favorable to the new economic system.

  17. Simplified Model for the Population Dynamics Involved in a Malaria Crisis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kenfack-Jiotsa, A.; Fotsa-Ngaffo, F.

    2009-12-01

    We adapt a simple model of predator-prey to the population involved in a crisis of malaria. The study is made only in the stream blood inside the human body except for the liver. Particularly we look at the dynamics of the malaria parasites 'merozoites' and their interaction with the blood components, more specifically the red blood cells (RBC) and the immune response grouped under the white blood cells (WBC). The stability analysis of the system reveals an important practical direction to investigate as regards the ratio WBC over RBC since it is a fundamental parameter that characterizes stable regions. The model numerically presents a wide range of possible features of the disease. Even with its simplified form, the model not only recovers well-known results but in addition predicts possible hidden phenomenon and an interesting clinical feature a malaria crisis. (author)

  18. Consequences of population models on the dynamics of food chains.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kooi, B.W.; Boer, M.P.; Kooijman, S.A.L.M.

    1998-01-01

    A class of bioenergetic ecological models is studied for the dynamics of food chains with a nutrient at the base. A constant influx rate of the nutrient and a constant efflux rate for all trophic levels is assumed. Starting point is a simple model where prey is converted into predator with a fixed

  19. Mapping Populations: An Objective Measurement of Revolutionary Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-01

    the figurehead for the NSDAP because of his apparent ubiquity with the working class and the machinations of the bourgeoisie society members...dynamics between the proletariat and the bourgeoisie of German society in the 1920’s exemplified the need for a figurehead. Furthermore, the

  20. Dynamic behaviour of a typical PHWR under earthquake load conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fischer, U.; Brandt, K.; Krutzik, N.J.

    1984-01-01

    The paper deals with dynamic calculations for a PHWR reactor building founded on rock and on a base isolation system. The zero period accelerations, displacements, mode shapes and the floor response spectra of both calculations are compared. (Author) [pt

  1. Behaviour of steel arch supports under dynamic effects of rockbursts

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Horyl, P.; Šňupárek, Richard

    2007-01-01

    Roč. 116, č. 3 (2007), s. 119-128 ISSN 0371-7844 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30860518 Keywords : steel arch support * rockbursts * dynamic loading Subject RIV: DH - Mining , incl. Coal Mining

  2. Features wear nodes mechanization wing aircraft operating under dynamic loads

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    А.М. Хімко

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available  The conducted researches of titanic alloy ВТ-22 at dynamic loading with cycled sliding and dynamic loading in conditions of rolling with slipping. It is established that roller jamming in the carriage increases wear of rod of mechanization of a wing to twenty times. The optimum covering for strengthening wearied sites and restoration of working surfaces of wing’s mechanization rod is defined.

  3. Analysis of Population Diversity of Dynamic Probabilistic Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qingjian Ni

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In evolutionary algorithm, population diversity is an important factor for solving performance. In this paper, combined with some population diversity analysis methods in other evolutionary algorithms, three indicators are introduced to be measures of population diversity in PSO algorithms, which are standard deviation of population fitness values, population entropy, and Manhattan norm of standard deviation in population positions. The three measures are used to analyze the population diversity in a relatively new PSO variant—Dynamic Probabilistic Particle Swarm Optimization (DPPSO. The results show that the three measure methods can fully reflect the evolution of population diversity in DPPSO algorithms from different angles, and we also discuss the impact of population diversity on the DPPSO variants. The relevant conclusions of the population diversity on DPPSO can be used to analyze, design, and improve the DPPSO algorithms, thus improving optimization performance, which could also be beneficial to understand the working mechanism of DPPSO theoretically.

  4. A model for population dynamics of the mimetic butterfly Papilio polytes in the Sakishima Islands, Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sekimura, Toshio; Fujihashi, Yuta; Takeuchi, Yasuhiro

    2014-11-21

    We present a mathematical model for population dynamics of the mimetic swallowtail butterfly Papilio polytes in the Sakishima Islands, Japan. The model includes four major variables, that is, population densities of three kinds of butterflies (two female forms f. cyrus, f. polytes and the unpalatable butterfly Pachliopta aristolochiae) and their predator. It is well-known that the non-mimic f. cyrus resembles and attracts the male most, and the mimic f. polytes mimics the model butterfly P. aristolochiae. Based on experimental evidence, we assume that two forms f. cyrus and f. polytes interact under intraspecific competition for resources including the male, and the growth rate of f. cyrus is higher than that of f. polytes. We further assume that both the benefit of mimicry for the mimic f. polytes and the cost for the model are dependent on their relative frequencies, i.e. the motality of the mimic by predation decreases with increase in frequency of the model, while the motality of the model increases as the frequency of the mimic increases. Taking the density-dependent effect through carrying capacity into account, we set up a model system consisting of three ordinary differential equations (ODEs), analyze it mathematically and provide computer simulations that confirm the analytical results. Our results reproduce field records on population dynamics of P. polytes in the Miyako-jima Island. They also explain the positive dependence of the relative abundance (RA) of the mimic on the advantage index (AI) of the mimicry in the Sakishima Islands defined in Section 2. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Vigorous dynamics underlie a stable population of the endangered snow leopard Panthera uncia in Tost Mountains, South Gobi, Mongolia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Koustubh Sharma

    Full Text Available Population monitoring programmes and estimation of vital rates are key to understanding the mechanisms of population growth, decline or stability, and are important for effective conservation action. We report, for the first time, the population trends and vital rates of the endangered snow leopard based on camera trapping over four years in the Tost Mountains, South Gobi, Mongolia. We used robust design multi-season mark-recapture analysis to estimate the trends in abundance, sex ratio, survival probability and the probability of temporary emigration and immigration for adult and young snow leopards. The snow leopard population remained constant over most of the study period, with no apparent growth (λ = 1.08+-0.25. Comparison of model results with the "known population" of radio-collared snow leopards suggested high accuracy in our estimates. Although seemingly stable, vigorous underlying dynamics were evident in this population, with the adult sex ratio shifting from being male-biased to female-biased (1.67 to 0.38 males per female during the study. Adult survival probability was 0.82 (SE+-0.08 and that of young was 0.83 (SE+-0.15 and 0.77 (SE +-0.2 respectively, before and after the age of 2 years. Young snow leopards showed a high probability of temporary emigration and immigration (0.6, SE +-0.19 and 0.68, SE +-0.32 before and after the age of 2 years though not the adults (0.02 SE+-0.07. While the current female-bias in the population and the number of cubs born each year seemingly render the study population safe, the vigorous dynamics suggests that the situation can change quickly. The reduction in the proportion of male snow leopards may be indicative of continuing anthropogenic pressures. Our work reiterates the importance of monitoring both the abundance and population dynamics of species for effective conservation.

  6. Collective Dynamics of Belief Evolution under Cognitive Coherence and Social Conformity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, Nathaniel; Bollen, Johan; Ahn, Yong-Yeol

    2016-01-01

    Human history has been marked by social instability and conflict, often driven by the irreconcilability of opposing sets of beliefs, ideologies, and religious dogmas. The dynamics of belief systems has been studied mainly from two distinct perspectives, namely how cognitive biases lead to individual belief rigidity and how social influence leads to social conformity. Here we propose a unifying framework that connects cognitive and social forces together in order to study the dynamics of societal belief evolution. Each individual is endowed with a network of interacting beliefs that evolves through interaction with other individuals in a social network. The adoption of beliefs is affected by both internal coherence and social conformity. Our framework may offer explanations for how social transitions can arise in otherwise homogeneous populations, how small numbers of zealots with highly coherent beliefs can overturn societal consensus, and how belief rigidity protects fringe groups and cults against invasion from mainstream beliefs, allowing them to persist and even thrive in larger societies. Our results suggest that strong consensus may be insufficient to guarantee social stability, that the cognitive coherence of belief-systems is vital in determining their ability to spread, and that coherent belief-systems may pose a serious problem for resolving social polarization, due to their ability to prevent consensus even under high levels of social exposure. We argue that the inclusion of cognitive factors into a social model could provide a more complete picture of collective human dynamics.

  7. Universality in exact quantum state population dynamics and control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Lian-Ao; Segal, Dvira; Brumer, Paul; Egusquiza, Inigo L.

    2010-01-01

    We consider an exact population transition, defined as the probability of finding a state at a final time that is exactly equal to the probability of another state at the initial time. We prove that, given a Hamiltonian, there always exists a complete set of orthogonal states that can be employed as time-zero states for which this exact population transition occurs. The result is general: It holds for arbitrary systems, arbitrary pairs of initial and final states, and for any time interval. The proposition is illustrated with several analytic models. In particular, we demonstrate that in some cases, by tuning the control parameters, a complete transition might occur, where a target state, vacant at t=0, is fully populated at time τ.

  8. Population, environment dynamics, poverty and quality of life in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, B

    1996-12-01

    This article focuses on the growth in poverty, environmental concerns, and Chinese government efforts to eliminate poverty with integrated programs. China had 1.2 billion people in February 1995, or 20% of total world population on 7% of the world's arable land. The rate of natural increase was 1.1% in 1996. China's population could double to 2.4 billion by 2060. About 14 million people are added every year. China has about 300 million women of childbearing age. Even with 1 child per woman, population would grow by 300 million. 18 provinces have population growth over the national average of 1.49%. Many of these provinces are also provinces with high population density, high poverty ratios, and higher than 2 birth orders. The highest growth is in western China. Poor households have a lower quality of life, more disabled members, high rates of endemic disease, and illiteracy. Among the very poor without adequate food or clothing, environmental protection is a meaningless concept. Poverty alleviation strategies have shifted from relief to economic development. State support combined with local resources in a pooling approach pays for poverty alleviation programs. The central government's share will increase until the year 2000. The number of poor was 80 million in 1994 (9% of total population) living in 592 poor counties in remote and mountainous areas. The number of poor was reduced to 65 million in 1996. An integrated approach of family planning and poverty alleviation operates in Jinzhai County of Anhui province. China is determined to reorient to a "service-oriented, client- centered, woman-sensitive, and rural-emphasized approach."

  9. Dynamics of Cercospora zeina populations in maize-based agro ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    La variation dans le temps au sein d'une population, est fonction de facteurs relatifs à l'écologie, la biologie et l'histoire de vie des pathogènes. Elle varie d'un être vivant à un autre et d'un écosystème à un autre. L'objectif de cette étude était d'évaluer la variabilité génétique au sein des populations de Cercospora zeina ...

  10. The dynamics of discrete populations and series of events

    CERN Document Server

    Hopcraft, Keith Iain; Ridley, Kevin D

    2014-01-01

    IntroductionReferencesStatistical PreliminariesIntroductionProbability DistributionsMoment-Generating FunctionsDiscrete ProcessesSeries of EventsSummaryFurther ReadingMarkovian Population ProcessesIntroductionBirths and DeathsImmigration and the Poisson ProcessThe Effect of MeasurementCorrelation of CountsSummaryFurther ReadingThe Birth-Death-Immigration ProcessIntroductionRate Equations for the ProcessEquation for the Generating FunctionGeneral Time-Dependent SolutionFluctuation Characteristics of a Birth-Death-Immigration PopulationSampling and Measurement ProcessesCorrelation of CountsSumma

  11. Spatial and temporal dynamics of fucoid populations (Ascophyllum nodosum and Fucus serratus: a comparison between central and range edge populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rita M Araújo

    Full Text Available Persistence of populations at range edges relies on local population dynamics and fitness, in the case of geographically isolated populations of species with low dispersal potential. Focusing on spatial variations in demography helps to predict the long-term capability for persistence of populations across the geographical range of species' distribution. The demography of two ecological and phylogenetically close macroalgal species with different life history characteristics was investigated by using stochastic, stage-based matrix models. Populations of Ascophyllum nodosum and Fucus serratus were sampled for up to 4 years at central locations in France and at their southern range limits in Portugal. The stochastic population growth rate (λ(s of A. nodosum was lower and more variable in central than in southern sites whilst for F. serratus this trend was reversed with λ(s much lower and more variable in southern than in central populations. Individuals were larger in central than in southern populations for both species, which was reflected in the lower transition probabilities of individuals to larger size classes and higher probability of shrinkage in the southern populations. In both central and southern populations elasticity analysis (proportional sensitivity of population growth rate showed that fertility elements had a small contribution to λ(s that was more sensitive to changes in matrix transitions corresponding to survival. The highest elasticities were found for loop transitions in A. nodosum and for growth to larger size classes in F. serratus. Sensitivity analysis showed high selective pressure on individual growth for both species at both locations. The results of this study highlight the deterministic role of species-specific life-history traits in population demography across the geographical range of species. Additionally, this study demonstrates that individuals' life-transitions differ in vulnerability to environmental

  12. Spatial and temporal dynamics of fucoid populations (Ascophyllum nodosum and Fucus serratus): a comparison between central and range edge populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araújo, Rita M; Serrão, Ester A; Sousa-Pinto, Isabel; Åberg, Per

    2014-01-01

    Persistence of populations at range edges relies on local population dynamics and fitness, in the case of geographically isolated populations of species with low dispersal potential. Focusing on spatial variations in demography helps to predict the long-term capability for persistence of populations across the geographical range of species' distribution. The demography of two ecological and phylogenetically close macroalgal species with different life history characteristics was investigated by using stochastic, stage-based matrix models. Populations of Ascophyllum nodosum and Fucus serratus were sampled for up to 4 years at central locations in France and at their southern range limits in Portugal. The stochastic population growth rate (λ(s)) of A. nodosum was lower and more variable in central than in southern sites whilst for F. serratus this trend was reversed with λ(s) much lower and more variable in southern than in central populations. Individuals were larger in central than in southern populations for both species, which was reflected in the lower transition probabilities of individuals to larger size classes and higher probability of shrinkage in the southern populations. In both central and southern populations elasticity analysis (proportional sensitivity) of population growth rate showed that fertility elements had a small contribution to λ(s) that was more sensitive to changes in matrix transitions corresponding to survival. The highest elasticities were found for loop transitions in A. nodosum and for growth to larger size classes in F. serratus. Sensitivity analysis showed high selective pressure on individual growth for both species at both locations. The results of this study highlight the deterministic role of species-specific life-history traits in population demography across the geographical range of species. Additionally, this study demonstrates that individuals' life-transitions differ in vulnerability to environmental variability and

  13. Life history and population dynamics of an estuarine amphipod, Eriopisa chilkensis Chilton (Gammaridae)

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Aravind, N.P.; Sheeba, P.; Nair, K.K.C.; Achuthankutty, C.T.

    Life history and Population Dynamics of an Estuarine Amphipod –Eriopisa chilkensis Chilton (Gammaridae) Nisha. P. Aravind, P. Sheeba, K.K.C. Nair and C.T.Achuthankutty* National Institute of Oceanography, Regional Centre, Cochin 682018, India... of laboratory data to the field suggests that E. chilkensis in Cochin estuary has a multivoltine life cycle. Key words: - Eriopisa chilkensis, Amphipoda, life cycle, population dynamics, Cochin estuary, India 2 1. Introduction Life-history traits of 214 amphipod...

  14. Emergent Patterns of Diversity and Dynamics in Natural Populations of Planktonic Vibrio Bacteria

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-06-01

    1973. Ecology of Vibrio parahemolyticus in mixed-template amplifications: formation, consequences and elimination by Chesapeake Bay. J. Bacteriol. 113...Science 1930 and Engineering DOCTORAL DISSERTATION Emergent Patterns of Diversity and Dynamics in Natural Populations of Planktonic Vibrio Bacteria by...DYNAMICS IN NATURAL POPULATIONS OF PLANKTONIC VIBRIO BACTERIA by Janelle Ren6e Thompson B.S. Biological Sciences, Stanford University 1998 M.S

  15. Preliminary forecasts of Pacific bigeye tuna population trends under the A2 IPCC scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehodey, P.; Senina, I.; Sibert, J.; Bopp, L.; Calmettes, B.; Hampton, J.; Murtugudde, R.

    2010-07-01

    An improved version of the spatial ecosystem and population dynamics model SEAPODYM was used to investigate the potential impacts of global warming on tuna populations. The model included an enhanced definition of habitat indices, movements, and accessibility of tuna predators to different vertically migrant and non-migrant micronekton functional groups. The simulations covered the Pacific basin (model domain) at a 2° × 2° geographic resolution. The structure of the model allows an evaluation from multiple data sources, and parameterization can be optimized by adjoint techniques and maximum likelihood using fishing data. A first such optimized parameterization was obtained for bigeye tuna ( Thunnus obesus) in the Pacific Ocean using historical catch data for the last 50 years and a hindcast from a coupled physical-biogeochemical model driven by the NCEP atmospheric reanalysis. The parameterization provided very plausible biological parameter values and a good fit to fishing data from the different fisheries, both within and outside the time period used for optimization. We then employed this model to forecast the future of bigeye tuna populations in the Pacific Ocean. The simulation was driven by the physical-biogeochemical fields predicted from a global marine biogeochemistry - climate simulation. This global simulation was performed with the IPSL climate model version 4 (IPSL-CM4) coupled to the oceanic biogeochemical model PISCES and forced by atmospheric CO 2, from historical records over 1860-2000, and under the SRES A2 IPCC scenario for the 21st century (i.e. atmospheric CO 2 concentration reaching 850 ppm in the year 2100). Potential future changes in distribution and abundance under the IPCC scenario are presented but without taking into account any fishing effort. The simulation showed an improvement in bigeye tuna spawning habitat both in subtropical latitudes and in the eastern tropical Pacific (ETP) where the surface temperature becomes optimal for

  16. The significance of nonviable eggs for Daphnia population dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boersma, M.; Vijverberg, J.

    1995-01-01

    Egg mortality was studied in populations of Daphnia galeata, Daphnia cucullata, and the hybrid between these species. In Tjeukemeer, a shallow eutrophic lake in the Netherlands, egg mortality in daphnids manifested itself as an apparent increase in the frequency of eggs in the early developmental

  17. Population dynamics of Lemniscomys rosalia (Muridae: Rodentia) in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Numerous studies have reported increases in rodent populations following good rainfall (Nel 1978; Perrin & Swanepoel 1987; Bronner, Rau- ten bach & Meester 1988). This relationship is thought to be an indirect one where increased rainfall acts to increase cover and food supply. thus enabling rodents to reproduce (Neal.

  18. A stage-based model of manatee population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Runge, M.C.; Langtimm, C.A.; Kendall, W.L.

    2004-01-01

    A stage-structured population model for the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) was developed that explicitly incorporates uncertainty in parameter estimates. The growth rates calculated with this model reflect the status of the regional populations over the most recent 10-yr period. The Northwest and Upper St. Johns River regions have growth rates (8) of 1.037 (95% interval, 1.016?1.056) and 1.062 (1.037?1.081), respectively. The Southwest region has a growth rate of 0.989 (0.946?1.024), suggesting this population has been declining at about 1.1% per year. The estimated growth rate in the Atlantic region is 1.010 (0.988?1.029), but there is some uncertainty about whether adult survival rates have been constant over the last 10 yr; using the mean survival rates from the most recent 5-yr period, the estimated growth rate in this region is 0.970 (0.938?0.998). Elasticity analysis indicates that the most effective management actions should seek to increase adult survival rates. Decomposition of the uncertainty in the growth rates indicates that uncertainty about population status can best be reduced through increased monitoring of adult survival rate.

  19. The larval development and population dynamics of Derocheilocaris ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Seven larval stages of Derocheilocaris algoensis have been described and appear to be identical with those of D. typica from North America. This stresses the remarkable conservativeness of this subclass of Crustacea. The population biology of D. algoensis has been studied over 16 months and reproduction has been ...

  20. Salience network dynamics underlying successful resistance of temptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nomi, Jason S; Calhoun, Vince D; Stelzel, Christine; Paschke, Lena M; Gaschler, Robert; Goschke, Thomas; Walter, Henrik; Uddin, Lucina Q

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Self-control and the ability to resist temptation are critical for successful completion of long-term goals. Contemporary models in cognitive neuroscience emphasize the primary role of prefrontal cognitive control networks in aligning behavior with such goals. Here, we use gaze pattern analysis and dynamic functional connectivity fMRI data to explore how individual differences in the ability to resist temptation are related to intrinsic brain dynamics of the cognitive control and salience networks. Behaviorally, individuals exhibit greater gaze distance from target location (e.g. higher distractibility) during presentation of tempting erotic images compared with neutral images. Individuals whose intrinsic dynamic functional connectivity patterns gravitate toward configurations in which salience detection systems are less strongly coupled with visual systems resist tempting distractors more effectively. The ability to resist tempting distractors was not significantly related to intrinsic dynamics of the cognitive control network. These results suggest that susceptibility to temptation is governed in part by individual differences in salience network dynamics and provide novel evidence for involvement of brain systems outside canonical cognitive control networks in contributing to individual differences in self-control. PMID:29048582

  1. Optimized maritime emergency resource allocation under dynamic demand.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenfen Zhang

    Full Text Available Emergency resource is important for people evacuation and property rescue when accident occurs. The relief efforts could be promoted by a reasonable emergency resource allocation schedule in advance. As the marine environment is complicated and changeful, the place, type, severity of maritime accident is uncertain and stochastic, bringing about dynamic demand of emergency resource. Considering dynamic demand, how to make a reasonable emergency resource allocation schedule is challenging. The key problem is to determine the optimal stock of emergency resource for supplier centers to improve relief efforts. This paper studies the dynamic demand, and which is defined as a set. Then a maritime emergency resource allocation model with uncertain data is presented. Afterwards, a robust approach is developed and used to make sure that the resource allocation schedule performs well with dynamic demand. Finally, a case study shows that the proposed methodology is feasible in maritime emergency resource allocation. The findings could help emergency manager to schedule the emergency resource allocation more flexibly in terms of dynamic demand.

  2. Transcriptome analysis deciphers evolutionary mechanisms underlying genetic differentiation between coastal and offshore anchovy populations in the Bay of Biscay

    KAUST Repository

    Montes, Iratxe; Zarraonaindia, Iratxe; Iriondo, Mikel; Grant, W. Stewart; Manzano, Carmen; Cotano, Unai; Conklin, Darrell; Irigoien, Xabier; Estonba, Andone

    2016-01-01

    Morphometry and otolith microchemistry point to the existence of two populations of the European anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) in the Bay of Biscay: one in open seawaters, and a yet unidentified population in coastal waters. To test this hypothesis, we assembled a large number of samples from the region, including 587 juveniles and spawning adults from offshore and coastal waters, and 264 fish from other locations covering most of the species’ European range. These samples were genotyped for 456 exonic SNPs that provide a robust way to decipher adaptive processes in these populations. Two genetically differentiated populations of anchovy inhabit the Bay of Biscay with different population dynamics: (1) a large offshore population associated with marine waters included in the wide-shelf group, and (2) a coastal metapopulation adapted to estuarine environments in the Bay of Biscay and North Sea included in the narrow-shelf group. Transcriptome analysis identified neutral and adaptive evolutionary processes underlying differentiation between these populations. Reduced gene flow between offshore and coastal populations in the Bay of Biscay appears to result from divergence between two previously isolated gene pools adapted to contrasting habitats and now in secondary contact. Eleven molecular markers appear to mark divergent selection between the ecotypes, and a majority of these markers are associated with salinity variability. Ecotype differences at two outlier genes, TSSK6 and basigin, may hinder gamete compatibility between the ecotypes and reinforce reproductive isolation. Additionally, possible convergent evolution between offshore and coastal populations in the Bay of Biscay has been detected for the syntaxin1B-otoferlin gene system, which is involved in the control of larval buoyancy. Further study of exonic markers opens the possibility of understanding the mechanisms of adaptive divergence between European anchovy populations. © 2016, Springer

  3. Transcriptome analysis deciphers evolutionary mechanisms underlying genetic differentiation between coastal and offshore anchovy populations in the Bay of Biscay

    KAUST Repository

    Montes, Iratxe

    2016-09-13

    Morphometry and otolith microchemistry point to the existence of two populations of the European anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) in the Bay of Biscay: one in open seawaters, and a yet unidentified population in coastal waters. To test this hypothesis, we assembled a large number of samples from the region, including 587 juveniles and spawning adults from offshore and coastal waters, and 264 fish from other locations covering most of the species’ European range. These samples were genotyped for 456 exonic SNPs that provide a robust way to decipher adaptive processes in these populations. Two genetically differentiated populations of anchovy inhabit the Bay of Biscay with different population dynamics: (1) a large offshore population associated with marine waters included in the wide-shelf group, and (2) a coastal metapopulation adapted to estuarine environments in the Bay of Biscay and North Sea included in the narrow-shelf group. Transcriptome analysis identified neutral and adaptive evolutionary processes underlying differentiation between these populations. Reduced gene flow between offshore and coastal populations in the Bay of Biscay appears to result from divergence between two previously isolated gene pools adapted to contrasting habitats and now in secondary contact. Eleven molecular markers appear to mark divergent selection between the ecotypes, and a majority of these markers are associated with salinity variability. Ecotype differences at two outlier genes, TSSK6 and basigin, may hinder gamete compatibility between the ecotypes and reinforce reproductive isolation. Additionally, possible convergent evolution between offshore and coastal populations in the Bay of Biscay has been detected for the syntaxin1B-otoferlin gene system, which is involved in the control of larval buoyancy. Further study of exonic markers opens the possibility of understanding the mechanisms of adaptive divergence between European anchovy populations. © 2016, Springer

  4. Connection between Dynamically Derived Initial Mass Function Normalization and Stellar Population Parameters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    McDermid, Richard M.; Cappellari, Michele; Alatalo, Katherine; Bayet, Estelle; Blitz, Leo; Bois, Maxime; Bournaud, Frédéric; Bureau, Martin; Crocker, Alison F.; Davies, Roger L.; Davis, Timothy A.; de Zeeuw, P. T.; Duc, Pierre-Alain; Emsellem, Eric; Khochfar, Sadegh; Krajnović, Davor; Kuntschner, Harald; Morganti, Raffaella; Naab, Thorsten; Oosterloo, Tom; Sarzi, Marc; Scott, Nicholas; Serra, Paolo; Weijmans, Anne-Marie; Young, Lisa M.

    We report on empirical trends between the dynamically determined stellar initial mass function (IMF) and stellar population properties for a complete, volume-limited sample of 260 early-type galaxies from the ATLAS3D project. We study trends between our dynamically derived IMF normalization αdyn ≡

  5. A constitutive model for concrete under dynamic loading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suaris, W.; Shah, S.P.

    1983-01-01

    A continuous damage theory for the quasistatic and dynamic behaviour of concrete is presented. The continuous damage theory is rational choice for use in predicing the dynamic behaviour of concrete as the strain-rate effects that have been observed for concrete can to a large extent be attributed to the rate-sensitivity of the microcracking process. A vectorial representation is adopted for the damage to account for the planar nature of the microcracks in concrete. Damage is treated as an internal state variable influencing the free energy of the material and the constitutive equations and the damage evolution equations are derived consistently using thermodynamic considerations. The developed constitutive model is then calibrated by using test results in flexure and compression over a range of strain-rates. The constitutive model is also shown to be capable of predicting certain other experimentally observed characteristics of the dynamic response of concrete. (orig./HP)

  6. Dynamic Pricing for Airline Revenue Management under Passenger Mental Accounting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yusheng Hu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Mental accounting is a far-reaching concept, which is often used to explain various kinds of irrational behaviors in human decision making process. This paper investigates dynamic pricing problems for single-flight and multiple flights settings, respectively, where passengers may be affected by mental accounting. We analyze dynamic pricing problems by means of the dynamic programming method and obtain the optimal pricing strategies. Further, we analytically show that the passenger mental accounting depth has a positive effect on the flight’s expected revenue for the single flight and numerically illustrate that the passenger mental accounting depth has a positive effect on the optimal prices for the multiple flights.

  7. Radiation belt seed population and its association with the relativistic electron dynamics: A statistical study: Radiation Belt Seed Population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tang, C. L.; Wang, Y. X.; Ni, B.; Zhang, J.-C.

    2017-01-01

    Using the Van Allen Probes data, we study the radiation belt seed population and it associated with the relativistic electron dynamics during 74 geomagnetic storm events. Based on the flux changes of 1 MeV electrons before and after the storm peak, these storm events are divided into two groups of “non-preconditioned” and “preconditioned”. The statistical study shows that the storm intensity is of significant importance for the distribution of the seed population (336 keV electrons) in the outer radiation belt. However, substorm intensity can also be important to the evolution of the seed population for some geomagnetic storm events. For non-preconditioned storm events, the correlation between the peak fluxes and their L-shell locations of the seed population and relativistic electrons (592 keV, 1.0 MeV, 1.8 MeV, and 2.1 MeV) is consistent with the energy-dependent dynamic processes in the outer radiation belt. For preconditioned storm events, the correlation between the features of the seed population and relativistic electrons is not fully consistent with the energy-dependent processes. It is suggested that the good correlation between the radiation belt seed population and ≤1.0 MeV electrons contributes to the prediction of the evolution of ≤1.0 MeV electrons in the Earth’s outer radiation belt during periods of geomagnetic storms.

  8. Dispersal, density dependence, and population dynamics of a fungal microbe on leaf surfaces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woody, Scott T; Ives, Anthony R; Nordheim, Erik V; Andrews, John H

    2007-06-01

    Despite the ubiquity and importance of microbes in nature, little is known about their natural population dynamics, especially for those that occupy terrestrial habitats. Here we investigate the dynamics of the yeast-like fungus Aureobasidium pullulans (Ap) on apple leaves in an orchard. We asked three questions. (1) Is variation in fungal population density among leaves caused by variation in leaf carrying capacities and strong density-dependent population growth that maintains densities near carrying capacity? (2) Do resident populations have competitive advantages over immigrant cells? (3) Do Ap dynamics differ at different times during the growing season? To address these questions, we performed two experiments at different times in the growing season. Both experiments used a 2 x 2 factorial design: treatment 1 removed fungal cells from leaves to reveal density-dependent population growth, and treatment 2 inoculated leaves with an Ap strain engineered to express green fluorescent protein (GFP), which made it possible to track the fate of immigrant cells. The experiments showed that natural populations of Ap vary greatly in density due to sustained differences in carrying capacities among leaves. The maintenance of populations close to carrying capacities indicates strong density-dependent processes. Furthermore, resident populations are strongly competitive against immigrants, while immigrants have little impact on residents. Finally, statistical models showed high population growth rates of resident cells in one experiment but not in the other, suggesting that Ap experiences relatively "good" and "bad" periods for population growth. This picture of Ap dynamics conforms to commonly held, but rarely demonstrated, expectations of microbe dynamics in nature. It also highlights the importance of local processes, as opposed to immigration, in determining the abundance and dynamics of microbes on surfaces in terrestrial systems.

  9. System Dynamics based Dengue modeling environment to simulate evolution of Dengue infection under different climate scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anwar, R.; Khan, R.; Usmani, M.; Colwell, R. R.; Jutla, A.

    2017-12-01

    Vector borne infectious diseases such as Dengue, Zika and Chikungunya remain a public health threat. An estimate of the World Health Organization (WHO) suggests that about 2.5 billion people, representing ca. 40% of human population,are at increased risk of dengue; with more than 100 million infection cases every year. Vector-borne infections cannot be eradicated since disease causing pathogens survive in the environment. Over the last few decades dengue infection has been reported in more than 100 countries and is expanding geographically. Female Ae. Aegypti mosquito, the daytime active and a major vector for dengue virus, is associated with urban population density and regional climatic processes. However, mathematical quantification of relationships on abundance of vectors and climatic processes remain a challenge, particularly in regions where such data are not routinely collected. Here, using system dynamics based feedback mechanism, an algorithm integrating knowledge from entomological, meteorological and epidemiological processes is developed that has potential to provide ensemble simulations on risk of occurrence of dengue infection in human population. Using dataset from satellite remote sensing, the algorithm was calibrated and validated using actual dengue case data of Iquitos, Peru. We will show results on model capabilities in capturing initiation and peak in the observed time series. In addition, results from several simulation scenarios under different climatic conditions will be discussed.

  10. Coupled superconducting qudit-resonator system: Energy spectrum, state population, and state transition under microwave drive

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, W. Y.; Xu, H. K.; Su, F. F.; Li, Z. Y.; Tian, Ye; Han, Siyuan; Zhao, S. P.

    2018-03-01

    Superconducting quantum multilevel systems coupled to resonators have recently been considered in some applications such as microwave lasing and high-fidelity quantum logical gates. In this work, using an rf-SQUID type phase qudit coupled to a microwave coplanar waveguide resonator, we study both theoretically and experimentally the energy spectrum of the system when the qudit level spacings are varied around the resonator frequency by changing the magnetic flux applied to the qudit loop. We show that the experimental result can be well described by a theoretical model that extends from the usual two-level Jaynes-Cummings system to the present four-level system. It is also shown that due to the small anharmonicity of the phase device a simplified model capturing the leading state interactions fits the experimental spectra very well. Furthermore we use the Lindblad master equation containing various relaxation and dephasing processes to calculate the level populations in the simpler qutrit-resonator system, which allows a clear understanding of the dynamics of the system under the microwave drive. Our results help to better understand and perform the experiments of coupled multilevel and resonator systems and can be applied in the case of transmon or Xmon qudits having similar anharmonicity to the present phase device.

  11. Stochastic noncooperative and cooperative evolutionary game strategies of a population of biological networks under natural selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Bor-Sen; Yeh, Chin-Hsun

    2017-12-01

    We review current static and dynamic evolutionary game strategies of biological networks and discuss the lack of random genetic variations and stochastic environmental disturbances in these models. To include these factors, a population of evolving biological networks is modeled as a nonlinear stochastic biological system with Poisson-driven genetic variations and random environmental fluctuations (stimuli). To gain insight into the evolutionary game theory of stochastic biological networks under natural selection, the phenotypic robustness and network evolvability of noncooperative and cooperative evolutionary game strategies are discussed from a stochastic Nash game perspective. The noncooperative strategy can be transformed into an equivalent multi-objective optimization problem and is shown to display significantly improved network robustness to tolerate genetic variations and buffer environmental disturbances, maintaining phenotypic traits for longer than the cooperative strategy. However, the noncooperative case requires greater effort and more compromises between partly conflicting players. Global linearization is used to simplify the problem of solving nonlinear stochastic evolutionary games. Finally, a simple stochastic evolutionary model of a metabolic pathway is simulated to illustrate the procedure of solving for two evolutionary game strategies and to confirm and compare their respective characteristics in the evolutionary process. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Characteristics and modeling of spruce wood under dynamic compression load

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eisenacher, Germar

    2014-01-01

    Spruce wood is frequently used as an energy absorbing material in impact limiters of packages for the transportation of radioactive material. A 9m drop test onto an unyielding target is mandatory for the packages. The impact results in a dynamic compression load of the spruce wood inside the impact limiter. The lateral dilation of the wood is restrained thereby due to encasing steel sheets. This work's objective was to provide a material model for spruce wood based on experimental investigations to enable the calculation of such loading conditions. About 600 crush tests with cubical spruce wood specimens were performed to characterize the material. The compression was up to 70% and the material was assumed to be transversely isotropic. Particularly the lateral constraint showed to have an important effect: the material develops a high lateral dilation without lateral constraint. The force-displacement characteristics show a comparably low force level and no or only slight hardening. Distinctive softening occurs after the linear-elastic region when loaded parallel to the fiber. On the other hand, using a lateral constraint results in significantly higher general force levels, distinctive hardening and lateral forces. The softening effect when loaded parallel to the fiber is less distinctive. Strain rate and temperature raise or lower the strength level, which was quantified for the applicable ranges of impact limiters. The hypothesis of an uncoupled evolution of the yield surface was proposed based on the experimental findings. It postulates an independent strength evolution with deviatoric and volumetric deformation. The hypothesis could be established using the first modeling approach, the modified LS-DYNA material model MAT075. A transversely isotropic material model was developed based thereupon and implemented in LS-DYNA. The material characteristics of spruce wood were considered using a multi-surface yield criterion and a non-associated flow rule. The yield

  13. Dynamics in the devolopment of donkey population in Bulgaria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Vlaeva

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the recent study was to trace back the development of the donkey population in Bulgaria for the period 1950 – 2015. For that purpose the data from the National Statistic Institute and FAO was processed and other sources related to the problem were analyzed. Donkeys in Bulgaria used to be a comparatively large share of the traction power animals in the past, with the occurance of the social and economical changes after 1990 their number was dramatically reduced. This process is most noticeable after 2000, when for five year period until 2005 the donkey population in Bulgaria drops down from 207000 to 90000 individuals, as in 2013 this number falls down to 35000 according to FAO.

  14. The dynamics of endemic malaria in populations of varying size

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ngwa, G.A.

    2001-10-01

    A mathematical model for endemic malaria involving variable human and mosquito populations is analysed. A threshold parameter R 0 exists and the disease can persist if and only if R 0 exceeds 1. R 0 is seen to be a generalisation of the basic reproduction ratio associated with the Ross-Macdonald model for malaria transmission. The disease free equilibrium always exist and is globally stable when R 0 is below 1. A perturbation analysis is used to approximate the endemic equilibrium in the important case where the disease related death rate is nonzero. A diffusion approximation is used to approximate the quasi-stationary distribution of the associated stochastic model. Numerical simulations show that when R 0 is distinctly greater than 1, the endemic deterministic equilibrium is globally stable. Furthermore, in quasi-stationarity, the stochastic process undergoes oscillations about a mean population whose size can be approximated by the stable endemic deterministic equilibrium. (author)

  15. Does probability of occurrence relate to population dynamics?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thuiller, Wilfried; Münkemüller, Tamara; Schiffers, Katja H; Georges, Damien; Dullinger, Stefan; Eckhart, Vincent M; Edwards, Thomas C; Gravel, Dominique; Kunstler, Georges; Merow, Cory; Moore, Kara; Piedallu, Christian; Vissault, Steve; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Zurell, Damaris; Schurr, Frank M

    2014-12-01

    Hutchinson defined species' realized niche as the set of environmental conditions in which populations can persist in the presence of competitors. In terms of demography, the realized niche corresponds to the environments where the intrinsic growth rate ( r ) of populations is positive. Observed species occurrences should reflect the realized niche when additional processes like dispersal and local extinction lags do not have overwhelming effects. Despite the foundational nature of these ideas, quantitative assessments of the relationship between range-wide demographic performance and occurrence probability have not been made. This assessment is needed both to improve our conceptual understanding of species' niches and ranges and to develop reliable mechanistic models of species geographic distributions that incorporate demography and species interactions. The objective of this study is to analyse how demographic parameters (intrinsic growth rate r and carrying capacity K ) and population density ( N ) relate to occurrence probability ( P occ ). We hypothesized that these relationships vary with species' competitive ability. Demographic parameters, density, and occurrence probability were estimated for 108 tree species from four temperate forest inventory surveys (Québec, Western US, France and Switzerland). We used published information of shade tolerance as indicators of light competition strategy, assuming that high tolerance denotes high competitive capacity in stable forest environments. Interestingly, relationships between demographic parameters and occurrence probability did not vary substantially across degrees of shade tolerance and regions. Although they were influenced by the uncertainty in the estimation of the demographic parameters, we found that r was generally negatively correlated with P occ , while N, and for most regions K, was generally positively correlated with P occ . Thus, in temperate forest trees the regions of highest occurrence

  16. Mathematical modeling of seed bank dynamics in population genetics

    OpenAIRE

    Martin, Anna

    2017-01-01

    We study the genealogical structure of samples from a population for which any givengeneration is made up of direct descendants from one randomly chosen previousgeneration. These occur in nature when there are seed banks or egg banks allowingan individual to leave offspring several generations in the future. Kaj et al. studied in2001 the case where any given generation is made up of descendants from severalprevious generations and showed how this temporal structure in the reproductionmechanis...

  17. Does probability of occurrence relate to population dynamics?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thuiller, Wilfried; Münkemüller, Tamara; Schiffers, Katja H.; Georges, Damien; Dullinger, Stefan; Eckhart, Vincent M.; Edwards, Thomas C.; Gravel, Dominique; Kunstler, Georges; Merow, Cory; Moore, Kara; Piedallu, Christian; Vissault, Steve; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Zurell, Damaris; Schurr, Frank M.

    2014-01-01

    Hutchinson defined species' realized niche as the set of environmental conditions in which populations can persist in the presence of competitors. In terms of demography, the realized niche corresponds to the environments where the intrinsic growth rate (r) of populations is positive. Observed species occurrences should reflect the realized niche when additional processes like dispersal and local extinction lags do not have overwhelming effects. Despite the foundational nature of these ideas, quantitative assessments of the relationship between range-wide demographic performance and occurrence probability have not been made. This assessment is needed both to improve our conceptual understanding of species' niches and ranges and to develop reliable mechanistic models of species geographic distributions that incorporate demography and species interactions.The objective of this study is to analyse how demographic parameters (intrinsic growth rate r and carrying capacity K ) and population density (N ) relate to occurrence probability (Pocc ). We hypothesized that these relationships vary with species' competitive ability. Demographic parameters, density, and occurrence probability were estimated for 108 tree species from four temperate forest inventory surveys (Québec, western USA, France and Switzerland). We used published information of shade tolerance as indicators of light competition strategy, assuming that high tolerance denotes high competitive capacity in stable forest environments.Interestingly, relationships between demographic parameters and occurrence probability did not vary substantially across degrees of shade tolerance and regions. Although they were influenced by the uncertainty in the estimation of the demographic parameters, we found that r was generally negatively correlated with Pocc, while N, and for most regions K, was generally positively correlated with Pocc. Thus, in temperate forest trees the regions of highest occurrence

  18. Evolutionary dynamics of fluctuating populations with strong mutualism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David

    2013-03-01

    Evolutionary game theory with finite interacting populations is receiving increased attention, including subtle phenomena associated with number fluctuations, i.e., ``genetic drift.'' Models of cooperation and competition often utilize a simplified Moran model, with a strictly fixed total population size. We explore a more general evolutionary model with independent fluctuations in the numbers of two distinct species, in a regime characterized by ``strong mutualism.'' The model has two absorbing states, each corresponding to fixation of one of the two species, and allows exploration of the interplay between growth, competition, and mutualism. When mutualism is favored, number fluctuations eventually drive the system away from a stable fixed point, characterized by cooperation, to one of the absorbing states. Well-mixed populations will thus be taken over by a single species in a finite time, despite the bias towards cooperation. We calculate both the fixation probability and the mean fixation time as a function of the initial conditions and carrying capacities in the strong mutualism regime, using the method of matched asymptotic expansions. Our results are compared to computer simulations.

  19. Stiffness compatibility of coralline hydroxyapatite bone substitute under dynamic loading

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    When hydroxyapatite bone substitutes are implanted in human bodies,bone tissues will grow into their porous structure,which will reinforce their strength and stiffness.The concept of mechanical com-patibility of bone substitutes implies that their mechanical properties are similar to the bone tissues around,as if they were part of the bone.The mechanical compatibility of bone substitutes includes both static and dynamic behavior,due to the mechanical properties of bone depending on the strain rate.In this study,split Hopkinson pressure bar technique(SHPB) was employed to determine the dy-namic mechanical properties of coralline hydroxyapatite,bones with and bones without organic com-ponents,and their dynamic stress-strain curves of the three materials were obtained.The mechanical effects of collagens in bone were assessed,by comparing the difference between the Young’s moduli of the three materials.As the implanted bone substitute becomes a part of bone,it can be regarded as an inclusion composite.The effective modulus of the composite was also evaluated in order to estimate its mechanical compatibility on stiffness.The evaluated result shows that the suitable porosity of HA is 0.8,which is in favor of both static and dynamic stiffness compatibility.

  20. Stiffness compatibility of coralline hydroxyapatite bone substitute under dynamic loading

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    REN ChaoFeng; HOU ZhenDe; ZHAO Wei

    2009-01-01

    When hydroxyapatite bone substitutes are implanted in human bodies, bone tissues will grow into their porous structure, which will reinforce their strength and stiffness. The concept of mechanical com-patibility of bone substitutes implies that their mechanical properties are similar to the bone tissues around, as if they were part of the bone. The mechanical compatibility of bone substitutes includes both static and dynamic behavior, due to the mechanical properties of bone depending on the strain rate. In this study, split Hopkinson pressure bar technique (SHPB) was employed to determine the dy-namic mechanical properties of coralline hydroxyapatite, bones with and bones without organic com-ponents, and their dynamic stress-strain curves of the three materials were obtained. The mechanical effects of collagens in bone were assessed, by comparing the difference between the Young's moduli of the three materials. As the implanted bone substitute becomes a part of bone, it can be regarded as an inclusion composite. The effective modulus of the composite was also evaluated in order to estimate its mechanical compatibility on stiffness. The evaluated result shows that the suitable porosity of HA is0.8, which is in favor of both static and dynamic stiffness compatibility.

  1. The Leadership Game : Experiencing Dynamic Complexity under Deep Uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pruyt, E.; Segers, J.; Oruc, S.

    2011-01-01

    In this ever more complex, interconnected, and uncertain world, leadership is needed more than ever. But the literature and most leaders largely ignore dynamic complexity and deep uncertainty: only futures characterized by ever faster change, ever more (required) flexibility, and ever more scarcity

  2. Dynamics of directional coupling underlying spike-wave discharges

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sysoeva, M.V.; Luttjohann, A.K.; Luijtelaar, E.L.J.M. van; Sysoev, I.V.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: Spike and wave discharges (SWDs), generated within cortico-thalamo-cortical networks, are the electroencephalographic biomarker of absence epilepsy. The current work aims to identify mechanisms of SWD initiation, maintenance and termination by the analyses of dynamics and directionality of

  3. Contact Dynamics of EHL Contacts under Time Varying Conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Venner, Cornelis H.; Popovici, G.; Wijnant, Ysbrand H.; Dalmaz, G.; Lubrecht, A.A.; Priest, M

    2004-01-01

    By means of numerical simulations of two situations with time varying operating conditions it is shown that the dynamic behaviour of Elasto-Hydrodynamically Lubricated contacts in terms of vibrations can be characterized as: Changes in the mutual approach lead to film thickness changes in the inlet

  4. Functional coordination of muscles underlying changes in behavioural dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vernooij, Carlijn A; Rao, Guillaume; Perdikis, Dionysios; Huys, Raoul; Jirsa, Viktor K; Temprado, Jean-Jacques

    2016-06-10

    The dynamical systems approach addresses Bernstein's degrees of freedom problem by assuming that the neuro-musculo-skeletal system transiently assembles and dismantles its components into functional units (or synergies) to meet task demands. Strikingly, little is known from a dynamical point of view about the functioning of the muscular sub-system in this process. To investigate the interaction between the dynamical organisation at muscular and behavioural levels, we searched for specific signatures of a phase transition in muscular coordination when a transition is displayed at the behavioural level. Our results provide evidence that, during Fitts' task when behaviour switches to a different dynamical regime, muscular activation displays typical signatures of a phase transition; a reorganisation in muscular coordination patterns accompanied by a peak in the variability of muscle activation. This suggests that consistent changes occur in coordination processes across the different levels of description (i.e., behaviour and muscles). Specifically, in Fitts' task, target size acts as a control parameter that induces a destabilisation and a reorganisation of coordination patterns at different levels of the neuro-musculo-skeletal system.

  5. Nonlinear Dynamics of Carbon Nanotubes Under Large Electrostatic Force

    KAUST Repository

    Xu, Tiantian

    2015-06-01

    Because of the inherent nonlinearities involving the behavior of CNTs when excited by electrostatic forces, modeling and simulating their behavior is challenging. The complicated form of the electrostatic force describing the interaction of their cylindrical shape, forming upper electrodes, to lower electrodes poises serious computational challenges. This presents an obstacle against applying and using several nonlinear dynamics tools typically used to analyze the behavior of complicated nonlinear systems undergoing large motion, such as shooting, continuation, and integrity analysis techniques. This works presents an attempt to resolve this issue. We present an investigation of the nonlinear dynamics of carbon nanotubes when actuated by large electrostatic forces. We study expanding the complicated form of the electrostatic force into enough number of terms of the Taylor series. Then, we utilize this form along with an Euler-Bernoulli beam model to study for the first time the dynamic behavior of CNTs when excited by large electrostatic force. The geometric nonlinearity and the nonlinear electrostatic force are considered. An efficient reduced-order model (ROM) based on the Galerkin method is developed and utilized to simulate the static and dynamic responses of the CNTs. Several results are generated demonstrating softening and hardening behavior of the CNTs near their primary and secondary resonances. The effects of the DC and AC voltage loads on the behavior have been studied. The impacts of the initial slack level and CNT diameter are also demonstrated.

  6. NONLINEAR DYNAMICS OF CARBON NANOTUBES UNDER LARGE ELECTROSTATIC FORCE

    KAUST Repository

    Xu, Tiantian

    2015-06-01

    Because of the inherent nonlinearities involving the behavior of CNTs when excited by electrostatic forces, modeling and simulating their behavior is challenging. The complicated form of the electrostatic force describing the interaction of their cylindrical shape, forming upper electrodes, to lower electrodes poises serious computational challenges. This presents an obstacle against applying and using several nonlinear dynamics tools typically used to analyze the behavior of complicated nonlinear systems undergoing large motion, such as shooting, continuation, and integrity analysis techniques. This works presents an attempt to resolve this issue. We present an investigation of the nonlinear dynamics of carbon nanotubes when actuated by large electrostatic forces. We study expanding the complicated form of the electrostatic force into enough number of terms of the Taylor series. Then, we utilize this form along with an Euler-Bernoulli beam model to study for the first time the dynamic behavior of CNTs when excited by large electrostatic force. The geometric nonlinearity and the nonlinear electrostatic force are considered. An efficient reduced-order model (ROM) based on the Galerkin method is developed and utilized to simulate the static and dynamic responses of the CNTs. Several results are generated demonstrating softening and hardening behavior of the CNTs near their primary and secondary resonances. The effects of the DC and AC voltage loads on the behavior have been studied. The impacts of the initial slack level and CNT diameter are also demonstrated.

  7. Forecasting influenza-like illness dynamics for military populations using neural networks and social media.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Svitlana Volkova

    Full Text Available This work is the first to take advantage of recurrent neural networks to predict influenza-like illness (ILI dynamics from various linguistic signals extracted from social media data. Unlike other approaches that rely on timeseries analysis of historical ILI data and the state-of-the-art machine learning models, we build and evaluate the predictive power of neural network architectures based on Long Short Term Memory (LSTMs units capable of nowcasting (predicting in "real-time" and forecasting (predicting the future ILI dynamics in the 2011 - 2014 influenza seasons. To build our models we integrate information people post in social media e.g., topics, embeddings, word ngrams, stylistic patterns, and communication behavior using hashtags and mentions. We then quantitatively evaluate the predictive power of different social media signals and contrast the performance of the-state-of-the-art regression models with neural networks using a diverse set of evaluation metrics. Finally, we combine ILI and social media signals to build a joint neural network model for ILI dynamics prediction. Unlike the majority of the existing work, we specifically focus on developing models for local rather than national ILI surveillance, specifically for military rather than general populations in 26 U.S. and six international locations., and analyze how model performance depends on the amount of social media data available per location. Our approach demonstrates several advantages: (a Neural network architectures that rely on LSTM units trained on social media data yield the best performance compared to previously used regression models. (b Previously under-explored language and communication behavior features are more predictive of ILI dynamics than stylistic and topic signals expressed in social media. (c Neural network models learned exclusively from social media signals yield comparable or better performance to the models learned from ILI historical data, thus

  8. Forecasting influenza-like illness dynamics for military populations using neural networks and social media.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volkova, Svitlana; Ayton, Ellyn; Porterfield, Katherine; Corley, Courtney D

    2017-01-01

    This work is the first to take advantage of recurrent neural networks to predict influenza-like illness (ILI) dynamics from various linguistic signals extracted from social media data. Unlike other approaches that rely on timeseries analysis of historical ILI data and the state-of-the-art machine learning models, we build and evaluate the predictive power of neural network architectures based on Long Short Term Memory (LSTMs) units capable of nowcasting (predicting in "real-time") and forecasting (predicting the future) ILI dynamics in the 2011 - 2014 influenza seasons. To build our models we integrate information people post in social media e.g., topics, embeddings, word ngrams, stylistic patterns, and communication behavior using hashtags and mentions. We then quantitatively evaluate the predictive power of different social media signals and contrast the performance of the-state-of-the-art regression models with neural networks using a diverse set of evaluation metrics. Finally, we combine ILI and social media signals to build a joint neural network model for ILI dynamics prediction. Unlike the majority of the existing work, we specifically focus on developing models for local rather than national ILI surveillance, specifically for military rather than general populations in 26 U.S. and six international locations., and analyze how model performance depends on the amount of social media data available per location. Our approach demonstrates several advantages: (a) Neural network architectures that rely on LSTM units trained on social media data yield the best performance compared to previously used regression models. (b) Previously under-explored language and communication behavior features are more predictive of ILI dynamics than stylistic and topic signals expressed in social media. (c) Neural network models learned exclusively from social media signals yield comparable or better performance to the models learned from ILI historical data, thus, signals from

  9. Population dynamics of mallards breeding in eastern Washington

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dugger, Bruce D.; Coluccy, John M.; Dugger, Katie M.; Fox, Trevor T.; Kraege, Donald K.; Petrie, Mark J.

    2016-01-01

    Variation in regional population trends for mallards breeding in the western United States indicates that additional research into factors that influence demographics could contribute to management and understanding the population demographics of mallards across North America. We estimated breeding incidence and adult female, nest, and brood survival in eastern Washington in 2006 and 2007 by monitoring female mallards with radio telemetry and tested how those parameters were influenced by study year (2006 vs. 2007), landscape type (agricultural vs. natural), and age (second year [SY] vs. after second year [ASY]). We also investigated the effects of female body condition and capture date on breeding incidence, and nest initiation date and hatch date on nest and brood survival, respectively. We included population parameters in a stage-based demographic model and conducted a perturbation analysis to identify which vital rates were most influential on population growth rate (λ). Adult female survival was best modeled with a constant weekly survival rate (0.994, SE = 0.003). Breeding incidence differed between years and was higher for birds in better body condition. Nest survival was higher for ASY females (0.276, SE = 0.118) than SY females (0.066, SE = 0.052), and higher on publicly managed lands (0.383, SE = 0.212) than agricultural (0.114, SE = 0.058) landscapes. Brood survival was best modeled with a constant rate for the 7-week monitoring period (0.50, SE = 0.155). The single variable having the greatest influence on λ was non-breeding season survival, but the combination of parameters from the breeding grounds explained a greater percent of the variance in λ. Mallard population growth rate was most sensitive to changes in non-breeding survival, nest success, brood survival, and breeding incidence. Future management decisions should focus on activities that improve these vital rates if managers want to increase the production of

  10. Modelling of population dynamics of red king crab using Bayesian approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bakanev Sergey ...

    2012-10-01

    Modeling population dynamics based on the Bayesian approach enables to successfully resolve the above issues. The integration of the data from various studies into a unified model based on Bayesian parameter estimation method provides a much more detailed description of the processes occurring in the population.

  11. Strong persistent growth differences govern individual performance and population dynamics in a tropical forest understorey palm

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jansen, M.; Zuidema, P.A.; Anten, N.P.R.; Martínez-Ramos, M.

    2012-01-01

    1. Persistent variation in growth rate between individual plants can have strong effects on population dynamics as fast growers reach the reproductive size at an earlier age and thus potentially contribute more to population growth than slow growers. In tropical forests, such persistent growth

  12. Weed populations and crop rotations: exploring dynamics of a structured periodic system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mertens, S.K.; Bosch, F. van den; Heesterbeek, J.A.P.

    2002-01-01

    The periodic growing of a certain set of crops in a prescribed order, called a crop rotation, is considered to be an important tool for managing weed populations. Nevertheless, the effects of crop rotations on weed population dynamics are not well understood. Explanations for rotation effects on

  13. Composition and Dynamics of Migratory and Resident Avian Population in Wintering Wetlands from Northern India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaushalendra Kumar JHA

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Twelve wetlands occurring in four different ecozones in Uttar Pradesh (UP, India, were selected for studying the winter composition and dynamics of avian populations. Wetland information was collected from office records of the UP Forest department. Bird populations were estimated by transect method and block-in-flock-in-sector method for woodland and aquatic birds, respectively. Across the twelve selected wetlands a total of 486,182 individuals belonging to 161 species of birds on 15,592 ha were recorded during the winter of 2010-11. The data were analyzed to assess the relationship between wetland characteristics and avian populations. Aquatic vegetation, surrounding vegetation, water availability and climate were found as important factors related to avian populations. January was found to be the peak of bird assemblage, while winter times before and after January were the waxing and waning period, respectively. Species richness and species diversity of aquatic birds varied between 18-58 and 1.90-3.20, respectively, and of all bird species between 23-109, and 1.73-3.81, respectively. The density of aquatic birds ranged between 17-384 ha-1. The most common migratory birds in wetlands were Northern Pintail, Common Teal and Greylag Goose. Common resident birds included Asian Openbill, Darter, Little Egret, Common Coot, Little Cormorant, Grey Heron, Purple Heron, Indian Pond Heron, Common Moorhen, Purple Swamphen, Cattle Egret, Indian Sarus Crane and White-throated Kingfisher. For improved conservation of aquatic avian fauna, management prescriptions are suggested for wetlands under current management which could also be extended to other wetlands, whereas conservation of avian fauna to be the emphasis.

  14. Adaptation dynamics of laboratory populations of Drosophila Melanogaster to low dose chronic ionizing irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zajnullin, V.G.; Yushkova, E.A.

    2008-01-01

    In genetically non-uniform populations D. melanogaster in conditions of a chronic irradiation in a doze 10-11 about sGy/generation dynamics parameters of populations was investigated. It is established, that number of individuals in irradiated populations is lower, than in control. It is revealed, that viability of populations undergone to a chronic irradiation depends on their genotype. The gradual increase in fruitfulness, viability of individuals and decrease in a level of lethal mutations in a number of generations after of an irradiation in low doses is caused by adaptable opportunities of populations. (authors)

  15. A dynamic urban air pollution population exposure assessment study using model and population density data derived by mobile phone traffic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gariazzo, Claudio; Pelliccioni, Armando; Bolignano, Andrea

    2016-04-01

    A dynamic city-wide air pollution exposure assessment study has been carried out for the urban population of Rome, Italy, by using time resolved population distribution maps, derived by mobile phone traffic data, and modelled air pollutants (NO2, O3 and PM2.5) concentrations obtained by an integrated air dispersion modelling system. More than a million of persons were tracked during two months (March and April 2015) for their position within the city and its surroundings areas, with a time resolution of 15 min and mapped over an irregular grid system with a minimum resolution of 0.26 × 0.34 Km2. In addition, demographics information (as gender and age ranges) were available in a separated dataset not connected with the total population one. Such BigData were matched in time and space with air pollution model results and then used to produce hourly and daily resolved cumulative population exposures during the studied period. A significant mobility of population was identified with higher population densities in downtown areas during daytime increasing of up to 1000 people/Km2 with respect to nigh-time one, likely produced by commuters, tourists and working age population. Strong variability (up to ±50% for NO2) of population exposures were detected as an effect of both mobility and time/spatial changing in pollutants concentrations. A comparison with the correspondent stationary approach based on National Census data, allows detecting the inability of latter in estimating the actual variability of population exposure. Significant underestimations of the amount of population exposed to daily PM2.5 WHO guideline was identified for the Census approach. Very small differences (up to a few μg/m3) on exposure were detected for gender and age ranges population classes.

  16. Evolutionary dynamics of populations with conflicting interactions: Classification and analytical treatment considering asymmetry and power

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helbing, Dirk; Johansson, Anders

    2010-01-01

    Evolutionary game theory has been successfully used to investigate the dynamics of systems, in which many entities have competitive interactions. From a physics point of view, it is interesting to study conditions under which a coordination or cooperation of interacting entities will occur, be it spins, particles, bacteria, animals, or humans. Here, we analyze the case, where the entities are heterogeneous, particularly the case of two populations with conflicting interactions and two possible states. For such systems, explicit mathematical formulas will be determined for the stationary solutions and the associated eigenvalues, which determine their stability. In this way, four different types of system dynamics can be classified and the various kinds of phase transitions between them will be discussed. While these results are interesting from a physics point of view, they are also relevant for social, economic, and biological systems, as they allow one to understand conditions for (1) the breakdown of cooperation, (2) the coexistence of different behaviors (“subcultures”), (3) the evolution of commonly shared behaviors (“norms”), and (4) the occurrence of polarization or conflict. We point out that norms have a similar function in social systems that forces have in physics.

  17. Molecular characterization of microbial population dynamics during sildenafil citrate degradation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Felice, Bruna; Argenziano, Carolina; Guida, Marco; Trifuoggi, Marco; Russo, Francesca; Condorelli, Valerio; Inglese, Mafalda

    2009-02-01

    Little is known about pharmaceutical and personal care products pollutants (PPCPs), but there is a growing interest in how they might impact the environment and microbial communities. The widespread use of Viagra (sildenafil citrate) has attracted great attention because of the high usage rate, the unpredictable disposal and the unknown potential effects on wildlife and the environment. Until now information regarding the impact of Viagra on microbial community in water environment has not been reported. In this research, for the first time, the genetic profile of the microbial community, developing in a Viagra polluted water environment, was evaluated by means of the 16S and 18S rRNA genes, for bacteria and fungi, respectively, amplified by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and separated using the denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) technique. The DGGE results revealed a complex microbial community structure with most of the population persisting throughout the experimental period. DNA sequences from bands observed in the different denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis profiles exhibited the highest degree of identity to uncultured bacteria and fungi found previously mainly in polluted environmental and treating bioreactors. Biotransformation ability of sildenafil citrate by the microbial pool was studied and the capability of these microorganisms to detoxify a polluted water ecosystem was assessed. The bacterial and fungal population was able to degrade sildenafil citrate entirely. Additionally, assays conducted on Daphnia magna, algal growth inhibition assay and cell viability determination on HepG2 human cells showed that biotransformation products obtained from the bacterial growth was not toxic. The higher removal efficiency for sildenafil citrate and the lack of toxicity by the biotransformation products obtained showed that the microbial community identified here represented a composite population that might have biotechnological relevance to

  18. Population dynamics of bowfin in a south Georgia reservoir: latitudinal comparisons of population structure, growth, and mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, Nicholas J.; Bonvechio, Timothy F.; McCormick, Joshua L.; Quist, Michael

    2014-01-01

    The objectives of this study were to evaluate the population dynamics of bowfin (Amia calva) in Lake Lindsay Grace, Georgia, and to compare those dynamics to other bowfin populations. Relative abundance of bowfin sampled in 2010 in Lake Lindsay Grace was low and variable (mean±SD; 2.7±4.7 fish per hour of electrofishing). Total length (TL) of bowfin collected in Lake Lindsay Grace varied from 233–683 mm. Age of bowfin in Lake Lindsay Grace varied from 0–5 yr. Total annual mortality (A) was estimated at 68%. Both sexes appeared to be fully mature by age 2 with gonadosomatic index values above 8 for females and close to 1 for males. The majority of females were older, longer, and heavier than males. Bowfin in Lake Lindsay Grace had fast growth up to age 4 and higher total annual mortality than the other populations examined in this study. A chi-square test indicated that size structure of bowfin from Lake Lindsay Grace was different than those of a Louisiana population and two bowfin populations from the upper Mississippi River. To further assess bowfin size structure, we proposed standard length (i.e., TL) categories: stock (200 mm, 8 inches), quality (350 mm, 14 inches), preferred (460 mm, 18 inches), memorable (560 mm, 22, inches), and trophy (710 mm, 28 inches). Because our knowledge of bowfin ecology is limited, additional understanding of bowfin population dynamics provides important insight that can be used in management of bowfin across their distribution.

  19. The Effect of Meteorological Factors on the Population Dynamics of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Michael Horsfall

    Regression equations of fly incidence with all the meteorological parameters were also determined. Results of the present investigation may be utilized in chalking out sustainable pest management strategy in the agro-ecological system under consideration. @ JASEM. Fruit flies are important pests of fruits, vegetables and.

  20. Reinforcement learning in complementarity game and population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jost, Jürgen; Li, Wei

    2014-02-01

    We systematically test and compare different reinforcement learning schemes in a complementarity game [J. Jost and W. Li, Physica A 345, 245 (2005)] played between members of two populations. More precisely, we study the Roth-Erev, Bush-Mosteller, and SoftMax reinforcement learning schemes. A modified version of Roth-Erev with a power exponent of 1.5, as opposed to 1 in the standard version, performs best. We also compare these reinforcement learning strategies with evolutionary schemes. This gives insight into aspects like the issue of quick adaptation as opposed to systematic exploration or the role of learning rates.

  1. Types of population dynamics in settlements of Zaplanje area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martinović Marija

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this article is to present the main directions of changes in the spatial-demographic settlements organization of Zaplanje, which, due to rapid demographic recession since the 60s of the 20th century, is the strongest depopulation area with the oldest population in Serbia. This research aims is to determine the main types of changes in demographic development of the settlements and indirectly reveals key issues of the sustainable development of Zaplanje settlements and revitalization of villages. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 176017

  2. Phylogeography, population dynamics, and molecular evolution of European bat lyssaviruses

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davis, P.L.; Holmes, E.C.; Larrous, F.

    2005-01-01

    origin, and population growth rates of EBLV-1. Our study encompassed data from 12 countries collected over a time span of 35 years and focused on the glycoprotein (G) and nucleoprotein (N) genes. We show that although the two subtypes of EBLV-1-EBLV-1a and EBLV-lb-have both grown at a low exponential...... in EBLV-1b. Our inferred rate of nucleotide substitution in EBLV-1, approximately 5 X 10(-5) substitutions per site per year, was also one of the lowest recorded for RNA viruses and implied that the current genetic diversity in the virus arose 500 to 750 years ago. We propose that the slow evolution...

  3. Direct characterization of chaotic and stochastic dynamics in a population model with strong periodicity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tung Wenwen; Qi Yan; Gao, J.B.; Cao Yinhe; Billings, Lora

    2005-01-01

    In recent years it has been increasingly recognized that noise and determinism may have comparable but different influences on population dynamics. However, no simple analysis methods have been introduced into ecology which can readily characterize those impacts. In this paper, we study a population model with strong periodicity and both with and without noise. The noise-free model generates both quasi-periodic and chaotic dynamics for certain parameter values. Due to the strong periodicity, however, the generated chaotic dynamics have not been satisfactorily described. The dynamics becomes even more complicated when there is noise. Characterizing the chaotic and stochastic dynamics in this model thus represents a challenging problem. Here we show how the chaotic dynamics can be readily characterized by the direct dynamical test for deterministic chaos developed by [Gao JB, Zheng ZM. Europhys. Lett. 1994;25:485] and how the influence of noise on quasi-periodic motions can be characterized as asymmetric diffusions wandering along the quasi-periodic orbit. It is hoped that the introduced methods will be useful in studying other population models as well as population time series obtained both in field and laboratory experiments

  4. Dynamic capability in an under-researched cultural environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fatemeh Rezaee

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available During the past few years, dynamic capability (DC has been considered as an important issue in banking industry. This paper presents a survey on dynamic capability and its role on reaching sustainable competitive advantage (SCA within Mellat bank of Iran (MBI. A valid research instrument is utilized to conduct a survey among 150 managers from MBI. The study utilizes structural equation modelling to examine different hypotheses based on an integrated model of DC and SCA. According to literature studies, expert opinions and exploratory factor analysis, DC is classified into sensing, learning, reconfiguration, and coordination. Furthermore, SCA of the banking industry is classified into three dimensions: market, customer, and financial performance. The results indicate that DC had the greatest effect on the market centered, while it had the least influence on the customer centered.

  5. Joint Dynamic Pricing of Multiple Perishable Products Under Consumer Choice

    OpenAIRE

    Yalç{\\i}n Akçay; Harihara Prasad Natarajan; Susan H. Xu

    2010-01-01

    In response to competitive pressures, firms are increasingly adopting revenue management opportunities afforded by advances in information and communication technologies. Motivated by these revenue management initiatives in industry, we consider a dynamic pricing problem facing a firm that sells given initial inventories of multiple substitutable and perishable products over a finite selling horizon. Because the products are substitutable, individual product demands are linked through consume...

  6. Dynamic response of the target container under pulsed heating

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liping Ni [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)

    1997-09-01

    The structural mechanics of a liquid target container for pulsed spallation sources have been simulated using both a commercial code and a PSI-developed program. Results from the transient thermal-structural analysis showed that, due to inertia effects, the dynamic stress in the target container is contributed mainly from direct heating in the initial time stage, and later from the pressure wave in the target liquid once it reaches the wall. (author) figs., tab., refs.

  7. Analysis of vehicle dynamics under sadden cross wind

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walczak, S.

    2016-09-01

    In this paper, the way of calculating aerodynamic forces acting on a vehicle passing in the region of sadden cross wind was presented. The CarDyn, a vehicle dynamics simulation program, developed by the author was used. The effects of the cross wind were studied with a fixed steering wheel simulation. On the base of computer simulations the car cross wind sensitivity were determined, and vehicle responses such as lateral offset, side acceleration and yaw angular velocity are presented.

  8. Dynamic asset allocation for bank under stochastic interest rates.

    OpenAIRE

    Chakroun, Fatma; Abid, Fathi

    2014-01-01

    This paper considers the optimal asset allocation strategy for bank with stochastic interest rates when there are three types of asset: Bank account, loans and securities. The asset allocation problem is to maximize the expected utility from terminal wealth of a bank's shareholders over a finite time horizon. As a consequence, we apply a dynamic programming principle to solve the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation explicitly in the case of the CRRA utility function. A case study is given ...

  9. The dynamics of the emergency medical readmission - The underlying fundamentals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrne, Declan; O'Riordan, Deirdre; Conway, Richard; Cournane, Sean; Silke, Bernard

    2017-11-01

    Hospital readmissions are a perennial problem. We reviewed readmissions to one institution (2002-2015) and investigated their dynamics. 96,474 emergency admissions (in 50,701 patients) to an Irish hospital over a 15-year period were studied, and patterns surrounding early (characteristics; the fundamentals are driven by disease progression over time. Copyright © 2017 European Federation of Internal Medicine. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Modeling detour behavior of pedestrian dynamics under different conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qu, Yunchao; Xiao, Yao; Wu, Jianjun; Tang, Tao; Gao, Ziyou

    2018-02-01

    Pedestrian simulation approach has been widely used to reveal the human behavior and evaluate the performance of crowd evacuation. In the existing pedestrian simulation models, the social force model is capable of predicting many collective phenomena. Detour behavior occurs in many cases, and the important behavior is a dominate factor of the crowd evacuation efficiency. However, limited attention has been attracted for analyzing and modeling the characteristics of detour behavior. In this paper, a modified social force model integrated by Voronoi diagram is proposed to calculate the detour direction and preferred velocity. Besides, with the consideration of locations and velocities of neighbor pedestrians, a Logit-based choice model is built to describe the detour direction choice. The proposed model is applied to analyze pedestrian dynamics in a corridor scenario with either unidirectional or bidirectional flow, and a building scenario in real-world. Simulation results show that the modified social force model including detour behavior could reduce the frequency of collision and deadlock, increase the average speed of the crowd, and predict more practical crowd dynamics with detour behavior. This model can also be potentially applied to understand the pedestrian dynamics and design emergent management strategies for crowd evacuations.

  11. Dynamic simulation of variable capacity refrigeration systems under abnormal conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liang Nan; Shao Shuangquan; Tian Changqing; Yan Yuying

    2010-01-01

    There are often abnormal working conditions at evaporator outlet of a refrigeration system, such as two-phase state in transient process, and it is essential to investigate such transient behaviours for system design and control strategy. In this paper, a dynamic lumped parameter model is developed to simulate the transient behaviours of refrigeration system with variable capacity in both normal and abnormal working conditions. The appropriate discriminant method is adopted to switch the normal and abnormal conditions smoothly and to eliminate the simulated data oscillation. In order to verify the dynamic model, we built a test system with variable frequency compressor, water-cooling condenser, evaporator and electronic expansion valve. Calculated values from the mathematical model show reasonable agreement with the experimental data. The simulation results show that the transient behaviours of the variable capacity refrigeration system in the abnormal working conditions can be calculated reliably with the dynamic model when the compressor rotary speed or the opening of electronic expansion valve changes abruptly.

  12. An obligatory bacterial mutualism in a multi-drug environment exhibits strong oscillatory population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conwill, Arolyn; Yurtsev, Eugene; Gore, Jeff

    2014-03-01

    A common mechanism of antibiotic resistance in bacteria involves the production of an enzyme that inactivates the antibiotic. By inactivating the antibiotic, resistant cells can protect other cells in the population that would otherwise be sensitive to the drug. In a multidrug environment, an obligatory mutualism arises because populations of different strains rely on each other to breakdown antibiotics in the environment. Here, we experimentally track the population dynamics of two E. coli strains in the presence of two different antibiotics: ampicillin and chloramphenicol. Together the strains are able to grow in antibiotic concentrations that inhibit growth of either one of the strains alone. Although mutualisms are often thought to stabilize population dynamics, we observe strong oscillatory dynamics even when there is long-term coexistence between the two strains. We expect that our results will provide insight into the evolution of antibiotic resistance and, more generally, the evolutionary origin of phenotypic diversity, cooperation, and ecological stability.

  13. Testing for reproductive interference in the population dynamics of two congeneric species of herbivorous mites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sato, Y; Alba, J M; Sabelis, M W

    2014-01-01

    When phylogenetically close, two competing species may reproductively interfere, and thereby affect their population dynamics. We tested for reproductive interference (RI) between two congeneric haplo-diploid spider mites, Tetranychus evansi and Tetranychus urticae, by investigating their interspecific mating and their population dynamics when they competed on the same plants. They are both pests of tomato, but differ in the host plant defences that they suppress or induce. To reduce the effect of plant-mediated interaction, we used a mutant tomato plant lacking jasmonate-mediated anti-herbivore defences in the competition experiment. In addition, to manipulate the effect of RI, we introduced founder females already mated with conspecific males in mild RI treatments or founder, virgin females in strong RI treatments (in either case together with heterospecific and conspecific males). As females show first-male sperm precedence, RI should occur especially in the founder generation under strong RI treatments. We found that T. urticae outcompeted T. evansi in mild, but not in strong RI treatments. Thus, T. evansi interfered reproductively with T. urticae. This result was supported by crossing experiments showing frequent interspecific copulations, strong postmating reproductive isolation and a preference of T. evansi males to mate with T. urticae (instead of conspecific) females, whereas T. urticae males preferred conspecific females. We conclude that interspecific mating comes at a cost due to asymmetric mate preferences of males. Because RI by T. evansi can improve its competitiveness to T. urticae, we propose that RI partly explains why T. evansi became invasive in Europe where T. urticae is endemic. PMID:24865602

  14. Population Dynamics and Transcriptomic Responses of Chorthippus albonemus (Orthoptera: Acrididae to Herbivore Grazing Intensity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinghu Qin

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Livestock grazing can trigger outbreaks of insect pests in steppe ecosystems of Inner Mongolia in China. However, the physiological responses of the grasshopper Chorthippus albonemus to grazing are not well-understood. Here we investigated the effects of sheep grazing on the population dynamics and transcriptomic response of C. albonemus. We collected the insects three times (about 20 days apart in 1.33-ha plots in which there were no grazing, light grazing, moderate grazing, heavy grazing, or overgrazing. Our results showed that continuous grazing significantly decreased plant biomass and influenced plant succession. Total insect species diversity significantly declined along the grazing intensity gradient and over time. Results of the first two collections of C. albonemus indicated that moderate grazing significantly increased the abundance of C. albonemus. However, abundance was significantly decreased in plots that were overgrazed, possibly because of food stress and environmental pressures. Under moderate grazing, betA and CHDH genes were significantly upregulated in C. albonemus. In response to higher grazing intensity, upregulated genes included those involved in serine-type peptidase activity, anatomical structure development, and sensory organ development; downregulated genes included those involved in the structural constituents of the ribosome and ribosome processes. Genes strongly upregulated in response to heavy grazing pressure included adaptive genes such as those encoding ankyrin repeat domain-containing protein and HSP. These findings improve our understanding of the role of the transcriptome in C. albonemus population response to livestock grazing and may provide useful targets for grasshopper control.

  15. Single Cell Dynamics Causes Pareto-Like Effect in Stimulated T Cell Populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cosette, Jérémie; Moussy, Alice; Onodi, Fanny; Auffret-Cariou, Adrien; Neildez-Nguyen, Thi My Anh; Paldi, Andras; Stockholm, Daniel

    2015-12-09

    Cell fate choice during the process of differentiation may obey to deterministic or stochastic rules. In order to discriminate between these two strategies we used time-lapse microscopy of individual murine CD4 + T cells that allows investigating the dynamics of proliferation and fate commitment. We observed highly heterogeneous division and death rates between individual clones resulting in a Pareto-like dominance of a few clones at the end of the experiment. Commitment to the Treg fate was monitored using the expression of a GFP reporter gene under the control of the endogenous Foxp3 promoter. All possible combinations of proliferation and differentiation were observed and resulted in exclusively GFP-, GFP+ or mixed phenotype clones of very different population sizes. We simulated the process of proliferation and differentiation using a simple mathematical model of stochastic decision-making based on the experimentally observed parameters. The simulations show that a stochastic scenario is fully compatible with the observed Pareto-like imbalance in the final population.

  16. A probabilistic cellular automata model for the dynamics of a population driven by logistic growth and weak Allee effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendonça, J. R. G.

    2018-04-01

    We propose and investigate a one-parameter probabilistic mixture of one-dimensional elementary cellular automata under the guise of a model for the dynamics of a single-species unstructured population with nonoverlapping generations in which individuals have smaller probability of reproducing and surviving in a crowded neighbourhood but also suffer from isolation and dispersal. Remarkably, the first-order mean field approximation to the dynamics of the model yields a cubic map containing terms representing both logistic and weak Allee effects. The model has a single absorbing state devoid of individuals, but depending on the reproduction and survival probabilities can achieve a stable population. We determine the critical probability separating these two phases and find that the phase transition between them is in the directed percolation universality class of critical behaviour.

  17. Spatial and temporal dynamics of the genetic organization of small mammal populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, M.H.; Manlove, M.N.; Joule, J.

    1978-01-01

    A functional population is a group of organisms and their offspring that contributes to a common gene pool within a certain area and time period. It is also the unit of evolution and should be viewed both in quantitative and qualitative terms. Selection, drift, dispersal, and mutation can alter the composition of populations. Spatial heterogeneity in allele frequencies argues for a conceptual model that has a series of relatively small populations semi-isolated from one another. Because of the relatively high levels of genetic variability characteristic of most mammalian species, significant amounts of gene flow between these spatially subdivided populations must occur when longer time periods are considered. Fluctuations in the genetic structure of populations seem to be important in altering the fitness of the individuals within the populations. The interaction of populations through gene flow is important in changing the levels of intrapopulational genetic variability. Populations can be characterized as existing on a continuum from relatively stable to unstable numbers and by other associated changes in their characteristics. Temporal changes in allele frequency occur in a variety of mammals. Conceptually, a species can be viewed as a series of dynamic populations that vary in numbers and quality in both a spatial and temporal context even over short distances and time periods. Short term changes in the quality of individuals in a population can be important in altering the short term dynamics of a population

  18. Climate effects and feedback structure determining weed population dynamics in a long-term experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis

    2012-01-01

    Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements.

  19. Climate Effects and Feedback Structure Determining Weed Population Dynamics in a Long-Term Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis

    2012-01-01

    Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements. PMID:22272362

  20. Climate effects and feedback structure determining weed population dynamics in a long-term experiment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauricio Lima

    Full Text Available Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors. Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements.

  1. Population dynamics and habitat sharing of natural populations of Caenorhabditis elegans and C. briggsae

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Félix Marie-Anne

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The nematode Caenorhabditis elegans is a major model organism in laboratory biology. Very little is known, however, about its ecology, including where it proliferates. In the past, C. elegans was mainly isolated from human-made compost heaps, where it was overwhelmingly found in the non-feeding dauer diapause stage. Results C. elegans and C. briggsae were found in large, proliferating populations in rotting plant material (fruits and stems in several locations in mainland France. Both species were found to co-occur in samples isolated from a given plant species. Population counts spanned a range from one to more than 10,000 Caenorhabditis individuals on a single fruit or stem. Some populations with an intermediate census size (10 to 1,000 contained no dauer larvae at all, whereas larger populations always included some larvae in the pre-dauer or dauer stages. We report on associated micro-organisms, including pathogens. We systematically sampled a spatio-temporally structured set of rotting apples in an apple orchard in Orsay over four years. C. elegans and C. briggsae were abundantly found every year, but their temporal distributions did not coincide. C. briggsae was found alone in summer, whereas both species co-occurred in early fall and C. elegans was found alone in late fall. Competition experiments in the laboratory at different temperatures show that C. briggsae out-competes C. elegans at high temperatures, whereas C. elegans out-competes C. briggsae at lower temperatures. Conclusions C. elegans and C. briggsae proliferate in the same rotting vegetal substrates. In contrast to previous surveys of populations in compost heaps, we found fully proliferating populations with no dauer larvae. The temporal sharing of the habitat by the two species coincides with their temperature preference in the laboratory, with C. briggsae populations growing faster than C. elegans at higher temperatures, and vice at lower temperatures.

  2. Understanding long-term fruit fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) population dynamics: implications for areawide management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aluja, Martín; Ordano, Mariano; Guillén, Larissa; Rull, Juan

    2012-06-01

    Fruit flies (Diptera: Tephritidae) are devastating agricultural pests worldwide but studies on their long-term population dynamics are sparse. Our aim was to determine the mechanisms driving long-term population dynamics as a prerequisite for ecologically based areawide pest management. The population density of three pestiferous Anastrepha species [Anastrepha ludens (Loew), Anastrepha obliqua (Macquart), and Anastrepha serpentina (Wiedemann)] was determined in grapefruit (Citrus x paradisi Macfad.), mango (Mangifera indica L.), and sapodilla [Manilkara zapota (L.) P. Royen] orchards in central Veracruz, México, on a weekly basis over an 11-yr period. Fly populations exhibited relatively stable dynamics over time. Population dynamics were mainly driven by a direct density-dependent effect and a seasonal feedback process. We discovered direct and delayed influences that were correlated with both local (rainfall and air temperature) and global climatic variation (El Niño Southern Oscillation [ENSO] and North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO]), and detected differences among species and location of orchards with respect to the magnitude and nature (linear or nonlinear) of the observed effects, suggesting that highly mobile pest outbreaks become uncertain in response to significant climatic events at both global and local levels. That both NAO and ENSO affected Anastrepha population dynamics, coupled with the high mobility of Anastrepha adults and the discovery that when measured as rate of population change, local population fluctuations exhibited stable dynamics over time, suggests potential management scenarios for the species studied lie beyond the local scale and should be approached from an areawide perspective. Localized efforts, from individual growers will probably prove ineffective, and nonsustainable.

  3. Integrating Dynamic Pricing and Replenishment Decisions Under Supply Capacity Uncertainty

    OpenAIRE

    Qi Feng

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines an integrated decision-making process regarding pricing for uncertain demand and sourcing from uncertain supply, which are often studied separately in the literature. Our analysis of the integrated system suggests that the base stock list price policy fails to achieve optimality even under deterministic demand. Instead, the optimal policy is characterized by two critical values: a reorder point and a target safety stock. Under this policy, a positive order is issued if and...

  4. Optimal superadiabatic population transfer and gates by dynamical phase corrections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vepsäläinen, A.; Danilin, S.; Paraoanu, G. S.

    2018-04-01

    In many quantum technologies adiabatic processes are used for coherent quantum state operations, offering inherent robustness to errors in the control parameters. The main limitation is the long operation time resulting from the requirement of adiabaticity. The superadiabatic method allows for faster operation, by applying counterdiabatic driving that corrects for excitations resulting from the violation of the adiabatic condition. In this article we show how to construct the counterdiabatic Hamiltonian in a system with forbidden transitions by using two-photon processes and how to correct for the resulting time-dependent ac-Stark shifts in order to enable population transfer with unit fidelity. We further demonstrate that superadiabatic stimulated Raman passage can realize a robust unitary NOT-gate between the ground state and the second excited state of a three-level system. The results can be readily applied to a three-level transmon with the ladder energy level structure.

  5. Population dynamics of the Kaminuriak caribou herd, 1968 - 1985

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Douglas C. Heard

    1986-06-01

    Full Text Available The Kaminuraik caribou herd apparently declined from about 120 000 animals in 1950 to 63 000 in 1968. Beginning in 1968 documentation of herd trend was based on the estimate of the number of breeding (pregnant and post-partum females on the calving ground during the birth peak. It appeared as if we understood the basic population processes responsible for the decline when we correctly predicted a drop from 14 800 breeding females in 1977 to 13 000 in 1980. However a three-fold increase, to 41 000 breeding females in 1982, and continued growth thereafter, was unanticipated. Most of that increase must have resulted from an immigration of cows to the herd's traditional calving ground around Kaminuriak Lake, although increased birth rates, and increased survival rates also contributed to herd growth. Immigrant cows probably came from the northeastern mainland of the NWT

  6. Ecotypic variation in population dynamics of reintroduced bighorn sheep

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bleich, Vernon C.; Sargeant, Glen A.; Wiedmann, Brett P.

    2018-01-01

    Selection of bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) for translocation historically has been motivated by preservation of subspecific purity rather than by adaptation of source stocks to similar environments. Our objective was to estimate cause‐specific, annual, and age‐specific mortality of introduced bighorn sheep that originated at low elevations in southern British Columbia, Canada (BC ecotype), or in the Missouri River Breaks region of central Montana, USA (MT ecotype). In North Dakota, USA, mortality was similar and typically low for adult female bighorn sheep from Montana (0.09 ± 0.029 [SE]) and British Columbia (0.08 ± 0.017) during 2000–2016. Median life expectancy was 11 years for females that reached adulthood (2 yrs old); however, mortality accelerated with age and reached 86% by age 16. Mortalities resulted primarily from low rates of predation, disease, accidents, and unknown natural causes (<0.04 [upper 90% CI]). Similar survival rates of female bighorn sheep from female bighorn sheep from British Columbia and Montana, coupled with greater recruitment of bighorn sheep from Montana, resulted in a greater projected rate of increase for the MT ecotype (λ = 1.21) than for the BC ecotype (1.02), and a more youthful age structure. These results support translocation of bighorn sheep from areas that are environmentally similar to areas that will be stocked. Potential benefits include more rapid population growth, greater resilience to and more rapid recovery from density‐independent losses, an increased possibility that rapidly growing populations will expand into adjacent habitat, increased hunter opportunity, increased connectivity among herds, and a more complete restoration of ecosystem processes.

  7. Ecotypic variation in population dynamics of reintroduced bighorn sheep

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bleich, Vernon C.; Sargeant, Glen A.; Wiedmann, Brett P.

    2018-01-01

    Selection of bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) for translocation historically has been motivated by preservation of subspecific purity rather than by adaptation of source stocks to similar environments. Our objective was to estimate cause‐specific, annual, and age‐specific mortality of introduced bighorn sheep that originated at low elevations in southern British Columbia, Canada (BC ecotype), or in the Missouri River Breaks region of central Montana, USA (MT ecotype). In North Dakota, USA, mortality was similar and typically low for adult female bighorn sheep from Montana (0.09 ± 0.029 [SE]) and British Columbia (0.08 ± 0.017) during 2000–2016. Median life expectancy was 11 years for females that reached adulthood (2 yrs old); however, mortality accelerated with age and reached 86% by age 16. Mortalities resulted primarily from low rates of predation, disease, accidents, and unknown natural causes (recruitment of bighorn sheep from Montana, resulted in a greater projected rate of increase for the MT ecotype (λ = 1.21) than for the BC ecotype (1.02), and a more youthful age structure. These results support translocation of bighorn sheep from areas that are environmentally similar to areas that will be stocked. Potential benefits include more rapid population growth, greater resilience to and more rapid recovery from density‐independent losses, an increased possibility that rapidly growing populations will expand into adjacent habitat, increased hunter opportunity, increased connectivity among herds, and a more complete restoration of ecosystem processes.

  8. Dynamics of pollutant indicators during flood events in a small river under strong anthropogenic pressures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brion, Natacha; Carbonnel, Vincent; Elskens, Marc; Claeys, Philippe; Verbanck, Michel A.

    2017-04-01

    In densely populated regions, human activities profoundly modify natural water circulation as well as water quality, with increased hydrological risks (floods, droughts,…) and chemical hazards (untreated sewage releases, industrial pollution,…) as consequence. In order to assess water and pollutants dynamics and their mass-balance in strongly modified river system, it is important to take into account high flow events as a significant fraction of water and pollutants loads may occur during these short events which are generally underrepresented in classical mass balance studies. A good example of strongly modified river systems is the Zenne river in and around the city of Brussels (Belgium).The Zenne River (Belgium) is a rather small but dynamic rain fed river (about 10 m3/s in average) that is under the influence of strong contrasting anthropogenic pressures along its stretch. While the upstream part of its basin is rather characterized by agricultural land-use, urban and industrial areas dominate the downstream part. In particular, the city of Brussels (1.1M inhabitants) discharges in the Zenne River amounts of wastewater that are large compared to the natural riverine flow. In order to assess water and pollutants dynamics and their mass-balance in the Zenne hydrographic network, we followed water flows and concentrations of several water quality tracers during several flood episodes with an hourly frequency and at different locations along the stretch of the River. These parameters were chosen as indicators of a whole range of pollutions and anthropogenic activities. Knowledge of the high-frequency pollutants dynamics during floods is required for establishing accurate mass-balances of these elements. We thus report here the dynamics of selected parameters during entire flood events, from the baseline to the decreasing phase and at hourly frequency. Dynamics at contrasting locations, in agricultural or urban environments are compared. In particular, the

  9. Competition under capacitated dynamic lot-sizing with capacity acquisition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Hongyan; Meissner, Joern

    2011-01-01

    Lot-sizing and capacity planning are important supply chain decisions, and competition and cooperation affect the performance of these decisions. In this paper, we look into the dynamic lot-sizing and resource competition problem of an industry consisting of multiple firms. A capacity competition...... production setup, along with inventory carrying costs. The individual production lots of each firm are limited by a constant capacity restriction, which is purchased up front for the planning horizon. The capacity can be purchased from a spot market, and the capacity acquisition cost fluctuates...

  10. Shearographic System for Dynamic Analysis of Materials under Heat Stress

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nelson A. Correa-Rojas

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Shearography is a tool for monitoring and inspecting of structural flaws and imperfections in different types of industrial, automotive and aeronautics applications. It is based on digital correlation of two speckle patterns in two states of interest: with and without load. The technique has the special quality of being very robust against environmental disturbances. We present a shearographic system to analyze the dynamic behavior of the strain that suffers a material in response to changes in temperature throughout the thermal load process.

  11. Dynamic of age structure and the number of population in Ozersk and affecting factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Panchenko, O.; Rtischeva, M.

    2000-01-01

    The aim of this work was an evaluation of the dynamics of age structure and population for the city of Ozyorsk, based in connection with creation of the nuclear plant Mayak, the 'first-born' of the Russian atomic industry. The obtained results indicate that since 1950 demographic processes in Ozyorsk were more favorable, in spite of fact that it was in this period workers of Mayak nuclear plant and population as a whole, got comparatively greater radiation doses than in the following years. However, dynamics the number of population has an unfavorable trend to reduce, connected with sharp worsening of social-economic situation in the town as a whole, as a result of the economic reforms in the country. Reduction of the number of population in the town is expressed by the negative natural growth and by reducing migration processes, which resulted in sharp decrease of the general growth of population, and in its stopping in 1998. (authors)

  12. Ciliates and the rare biosphere-community ecology and population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weisse, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    Application of deep sequencing technologies to environmental samples and some detailed morphological studies suggest that there is a vast, yet unexplored rare ciliate biosphere, tentatively defined in terms of operational taxonomic units. However, very few studies complemented molecular and phylogenetic data with morphological and ecological descriptions of the species inventory. This is mainly because the sampling effort increases strongly with decreasing species abundance. In spite of this limited knowledge, it is clear that species that are rare under certain environmental conditions (temporal rare biosphere) may become abundant when the physical, chemical, and biological variables of their habitat change. Furthermore, some species may always be present in low numbers if their dispersal rates are exceedingly high (accidental rare biosphere). An intriguing question is whether there are some species that are always rare, i.e., in every suitable environment. This permanent rare biosphere is conceptually different from the temporal rare biosphere. This review characterizes typical aquatic habitats of the rare ciliate biosphere, portrays different scenarios under which some or even many species may be permanently rare (background fauna), and identifies some fundamental questions that need to be addressed to achieve a better understanding of the population dynamics of the rare ciliate biosphere. © 2014 The Authors The Journal of Eukaryotic Microbiology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Society of Protistologists.

  13. The Response of Simple Polymer Structures Under Dynamic Loading

    Science.gov (United States)

    Proud, William; Ellison, Kay; Yapp, Su; Cole, Cloe; Galimberti, Stefano; Institute of Shock Physics Team

    2017-06-01

    The dynamic response of polymeric materials has been widely studied with the effects of degree of crystallinity, strain rate, temperature and sample size being commonly reported. This study uses a simple PMMA structure, a right cylindrical sample, with structural features such as holes. The features are added an varied in a systematic fashion. Samples were dynamically loaded using a Split Hopkinson Pressure Bar up to failure. The resulting stress-strain curves are presented showing the change in sample response. The strain to failure is shown to increase initially with the presence of holes, while failure stress is relatively unaffected. The fracture patterns seen in the failed samples change, with tensile cracks, Hertzian cones, shear effects being dominant for different holes sizes and geometries. The sample were prepared by laser cutting and checked for residual stress before experiment. The data is used to validate predictive model predictions where material, structure and damage are included.. The Institute of Shock Physics acknowledges the support of Imperial College London and the Atomic Weapons Establishment.

  14. Dynamics of Gut-Brain Communication Underlying Hunger.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beutler, Lisa R; Chen, Yiming; Ahn, Jamie S; Lin, Yen-Chu; Essner, Rachel A; Knight, Zachary A

    2017-10-11

    Communication between the gut and brain is critical for homeostasis, but how this communication is represented in the dynamics of feeding circuits is unknown. Here we describe nutritional regulation of key neurons that control hunger in vivo. We show that intragastric nutrient infusion rapidly and durably inhibits hunger-promoting AgRP neurons in awake, behaving mice. This inhibition is proportional to the number of calories infused but surprisingly independent of macronutrient identity or nutritional state. We show that three gastrointestinal signals-serotonin, CCK, and PYY-are necessary or sufficient for these effects. In contrast, the hormone leptin has no acute effect on dynamics of these circuits or their sensory regulation but instead induces a slow modulation that develops over hours and is required for inhibition of feeding. These findings reveal how layers of visceral signals operating on distinct timescales converge on hypothalamic feeding circuits to generate a central representation of energy balance. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Analysis of Ant Colony Optimization and Population-Based Evolutionary Algorithms on Dynamic Problems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lissovoi, Andrei

    the dynamic optimum for finite alphabets up to size μ, while MMAS is able to do so for any finite alphabet size. Parallel Evolutionary Algorithms on Maze. We prove that while a (1 + λ) EA is unable to track the optimum of the dynamic fitness function Maze for offspring population size up to λ = O(n1-ε......This thesis presents new running time analyses of nature-inspired algorithms on various dynamic problems. It aims to identify and analyse the features of algorithms and problem classes which allow efficient optimization to occur in the presence of dynamic behaviour. We consider the following...... settings: λ-MMAS on Dynamic Shortest Path Problems. We investigate how in-creasing the number of ants simulated per iteration may help an ACO algorithm to track optimum in a dynamic problem. It is shown that while a constant number of ants per-vertex is sufficient to track some oscillations, there also...

  16. Spatial competition dynamics between reef corals under ocean acidification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horwitz, Rael; Hoogenboom, Mia O.; Fine, Maoz

    2017-01-01

    Climate change, including ocean acidification (OA), represents a major threat to coral-reef ecosystems. Although previous experiments have shown that OA can negatively affect the fitness of reef corals, these have not included the long-term effects of competition for space on coral growth rates. Our multispecies year-long study subjected reef-building corals from the Gulf of Aqaba (Red Sea) to competitive interactions under present-day ocean pH (pH 8.1) and predicted end-of-century ocean pH (pH 7.6). Results showed coral growth is significantly impeded by OA under intraspecific competition for five out of six study species. Reduced growth from OA, however, is negligible when growth is already suppressed in the presence of interspecific competition. Using a spatial competition model, our analysis indicates shifts in the competitive hierarchy and a decrease in overall coral cover under lowered pH. Collectively, our case study demonstrates how modified competitive performance under increasing OA will in all likelihood change the composition, structure and functionality of reef coral communities.

  17. Pricing constant maturity credit default swaps under jumo dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jönsson, H.; Schoutens, W.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we discuss the pricing of Constant Maturity Credit Default Swaps (CMCDS) under single sided jump models. The CMCDS offers default protection in exchange for a floating premium which is periodically reset and indexed to the market spread on a CDS with constant maturity tenor written on

  18. Oscillatory dynamics of a charged microbubble under ultrasound

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The stability and oscillations of a gas bubble suspended in a liquid under the ... Other significant applications of ultrasonic forcing of fluids in which studies of ... the context of cavitation in mechanical systems or in the case of bubbles in fluids in.

  19. Dynamic behavior of porous concretes under drop weight impact testing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Agar Ozbek, A.S.; Weerheijm, J.; Schlangen, E.; Breugel, K. van

    2013-01-01

    Porous concrete is used as a construction material in various applications mainly as a permeable cementitious material. However, its response under impact loading is generally not considered. Due to the high percentage of its intentional meso-size air pores, porous concrete has a moderate static

  20. Optimal Dynamic Advertising Strategy Under Age-Specific Market Segmentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krastev, Vladimir

    2011-12-01

    We consider the model proposed by Faggian and Grosset for determining the advertising efforts and goodwill in the long run of a company under age segmentation of consumers. Reducing this model to optimal control sub problems we find the optimal advertising strategy and goodwill.