Sample records for underlying population dynamics

  1. Neural Population Dynamics Underlying Motor Learning Transfer. (United States)

    Vyas, Saurabh; Even-Chen, Nir; Stavisky, Sergey D; Ryu, Stephen I; Nuyujukian, Paul; Shenoy, Krishna V


    Covert motor learning can sometimes transfer to overt behavior. We investigated the neural mechanism underlying transfer by constructing a two-context paradigm. Subjects performed cursor movements either overtly using arm movements, or covertly via a brain-machine interface that moves the cursor based on motor cortical activity (in lieu of arm movement). These tasks helped evaluate whether and how cortical changes resulting from "covert rehearsal" affect overt performance. We found that covert learning indeed transfers to overt performance and is accompanied by systematic population-level changes in motor preparatory activity. Current models of motor cortical function ascribe motor preparation to achieving initial conditions favorable for subsequent movement-period neural dynamics. We found that covert and overt contexts share these initial conditions, and covert rehearsal manipulates them in a manner that persists across context changes, thus facilitating overt motor learning. This transfer learning mechanism might provide new insights into other covert processes like mental rehearsal. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Stochastic population dynamics under resource constraints

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gavane, Ajinkya S., E-mail:; Nigam, Rahul, E-mail: [BITS Pilani Hyderabad Campus, Shameerpet, Hyd - 500078 (India)


    This paper investigates the population growth of a certain species in which every generation reproduces thrice over a period of predefined time, under certain constraints of resources needed for survival of population. We study the survival period of a species by randomizing the reproduction probabilities within a window at same predefined ages and the resources are being produced by the working force of the population at a variable rate. This randomness in the reproduction rate makes the population growth stochastic in nature and one cannot predict the exact form of evolution. Hence we study the growth by running simulations for such a population and taking an ensemble averaged over 500 to 5000 such simulations as per the need. While the population reproduces in a stochastic manner, we have implemented a constraint on the amount of resources available for the population. This is important to make the simulations more realistic. The rate of resource production then is tuned to find the rate which suits the survival of the species. We also compute the mean life time of the species corresponding to different resource production rate. Study for these outcomes in the parameter space defined by the reproduction probabilities and rate of resource production is carried out.

  3. Stochastic population dynamics under resource constraints

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gavane, Ajinkya S.; Nigam, Rahul


    This paper investigates the population growth of a certain species in which every generation reproduces thrice over a period of predefined time, under certain constraints of resources needed for survival of population. We study the survival period of a species by randomizing the reproduction probabilities within a window at same predefined ages and the resources are being produced by the working force of the population at a variable rate. This randomness in the reproduction rate makes the population growth stochastic in nature and one cannot predict the exact form of evolution. Hence we study the growth by running simulations for such a population and taking an ensemble averaged over 500 to 5000 such simulations as per the need. While the population reproduces in a stochastic manner, we have implemented a constraint on the amount of resources available for the population. This is important to make the simulations more realistic. The rate of resource production then is tuned to find the rate which suits the survival of the species. We also compute the mean life time of the species corresponding to different resource production rate. Study for these outcomes in the parameter space defined by the reproduction probabilities and rate of resource production is carried out.

  4. Dynamics of buckbrush populations under simulated forest restoration alternatives (United States)

    David W. Huffman; Margaret M. Moore


    Plant population models are valuable tools for assessing ecological tradeoffs between forest management approaches. In addition, these models can provide insight on plant life history patterns and processes important for persistence and recovery of populations in changing environments. In this study, we evaluated a set of ecological restoration alternatives for their...

  5. The Influence of Individual Variability on Zooplankton Population Dynamics under Different Environmental Conditions (United States)

    Bi, R.; Liu, H.


    Understanding how biological components respond to environmental changes could be insightful to predict ecosystem trajectories under different climate scenarios. Zooplankton are key components of marine ecosystems and changes in their dynamics could have major impact on ecosystem structure. We developed an individual-based model of a common coastal calanoid copepod Acartia tonsa to examine how environmental factors affect zooplankton population dynamics and explore the role of individual variability in sustaining population under various environmental conditions consisting of temperature, food concentration and salinity. Total abundance, egg production and proportion of survival were used to measure population success. Results suggested population benefits from high level of individual variability under extreme environmental conditions including unfavorable temperature, salinity, as well as low food concentration, and selection on fast-growers becomes stronger with increasing individual variability and increasing environmental stress. Multiple regression analysis showed that temperature, food concentration, salinity and individual variability have significant effects on survival of A. tonsa population. These results suggest that environmental factors have great influence on zooplankton population, and individual variability has important implications for population survivability under unfavorable conditions. Given that marine ecosystems are at risk from drastic environmental changes, understanding how individual variability sustains populations could increase our capability to predict population dynamics in a changing environment.

  6. Population dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cooch, E. G.


    Full Text Available Increases or decreases in the size of populations over space and time are, arguably, the motivation for much of pure and applied ecological research. The fundamental model for the dynamics of any population is straightforward: the net change over time in the abundance of some population is the simple difference between the number of additions (individuals entering the population minus the number of subtractions (individuals leaving the population. Of course, the precise nature of the pattern and process of these additions and subtractions is often complex, and population biology is often replete with fairly dense mathematical representations of both processes. While there is no doubt that analysis of such abstract descriptions of populations has been of considerable value in advancing our, there has often existed a palpable discomfort when the ‘beautiful math’ is faced with the often ‘ugly realities’ of empirical data. In some cases, this attempted merger is abandoned altogether, because of the paucity of ‘good empirical data’ with which the theoretician can modify and evaluate more conceptually–based models. In some cases, the lack of ‘data’ is more accurately represented as a lack of robust estimates of one or more parameters. It is in this arena that methods developed to analyze multiple encounter data from individually marked organisms has seen perhaps the greatest advances. These methods have rapidly evolved to facilitate not only estimation of one or more vital rates, critical to population modeling and analysis, but also to allow for direct estimation of both the dynamics of populations (e.g., Pradel, 1996, and factors influencing those dynamics (e.g., Nichols et al., 2000. The interconnections between the various vital rates, their estimation, and incorporation into models, was the general subject of our plenary presentation by Hal Caswell (Caswell & Fujiwara, 2004. Caswell notes that although interest has traditionally

  7. Cholera and shigellosis in Bangladesh: similarities and differences in population dynamics under climate forcing (United States)

    Pascual, M.; Cash, B.; Reiner, R.; King, A.; Emch, M.; Yunus, M.; Faruque, A. S.


    The influence of climate variability on the population dynamics of infectious diseases is considered a large scale, regional, phenomenon, and as such, has been previously addressed for cholera with temporal models that do not incorporate fine-scale spatial structure. In our previous work, evidence for a role of ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) on cholera in Bangladesh was elucidated, and shown to influence the regional climate through precipitation. With a probabilistic spatial model for cholera dynamics in the megacity of Dhaka, we found that the action of climate variability (ENSO and flooding) is localized: there is a climate-sensitive urban core that acts to propagate risk to the rest of the city. Here, we consider long-term surveillance data for shigellosis, another diarrheal disease that coexists with cholera in Bangladesh. We compare the patterns of association with climate variables for these two diseases in a rural setting, as well as the spatial structure in their spatio-temporal dynamics in an urban one. Evidence for similar patterns is presented, and discussed in the context of the differences in the routes of transmission of the two diseases and the proposed role of an environmental reservoir in cholera. The similarities provide evidence for a more general influence of hydrology and of socio-economic factors underlying human susceptibility and sanitary conditions.

  8. Population dynamics can be more important than physiological limits for determining range shifts under climate change. (United States)

    Fordham, Damien A; Mellin, Camille; Russell, Bayden D; Akçakaya, Reşit H; Bradshaw, Corey J A; Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E; Caley, Julian M; Connell, Sean D; Mayfield, Stephen; Shepherd, Scoresby A; Brook, Barry W


    Evidence is accumulating that species' responses to climate changes are best predicted by modelling the interaction of physiological limits, biotic processes and the effects of dispersal-limitation. Using commercially harvested blacklip (Haliotis rubra) and greenlip abalone (Haliotis laevigata) as case studies, we determine the relative importance of accounting for interactions among physiology, metapopulation dynamics and exploitation in predictions of range (geographical occupancy) and abundance (spatially explicit density) under various climate change scenarios. Traditional correlative ecological niche models (ENM) predict that climate change will benefit the commercial exploitation of abalone by promoting increased abundances without any reduction in range size. However, models that account simultaneously for demographic processes and physiological responses to climate-related factors result in future (and present) estimates of area of occupancy (AOO) and abundance that differ from those generated by ENMs alone. Range expansion and population growth are unlikely for blacklip abalone because of important interactions between climate-dependent mortality and metapopulation processes; in contrast, greenlip abalone should increase in abundance despite a contraction in AOO. The strongly non-linear relationship between abalone population size and AOO has important ramifications for the use of ENM predictions that rely on metrics describing change in habitat area as proxies for extinction risk. These results show that predicting species' responses to climate change often require physiological information to understand climatic range determinants, and a metapopulation model that can make full use of this data to more realistically account for processes such as local extirpation, demographic rescue, source-sink dynamics and dispersal-limitation. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. Red Sea Acropora hemprichii Bacterial Population Dynamics under Adverse Anthropogenic Conditions

    KAUST Repository

    Lizcano, Javier


    Reef-building corals are cornerstones of life in the oceans. Understanding their interactions with microorganisms and their surrounding physicochemical conditions is important to comprehend reef functioning and ultimately protect coral reef ecosystems. Corals associate with a complex and specific array of microorganisms that supposedly affect their physiology and therefore can significantly determine the condition of a coral ecosystem. As environmental conditions may shape bacterial diversity and ecology in the coral symbiosis, ecosystem changes might have unfavorable consequences for the holobiont, to date poorly understood. Here, we were studying microbial community changes in A. hemprichii as a consequence of simulated eutrophication and overfishing over a period of 16 weeks by using in situ caging and slow release fertilizer treatments in an undisturbed Red Sea reef (22.18ºN, 38.57ºW). We used 16S rDNA amplicon sequencing to evaluate the individual and combined effects of overnutrification and fishing pressure, two of the most common local threats to coral reefs. With our data we hope to better understand bacterial population dynamics under anthropogenic influences and its role in coral resilience. Projecting further, this data will be useful to better predict the consequences of human activity on reef ecosystems.

  10. Scaling of the mean and variance of population dynamics under fluctuating regimes. (United States)

    Pertoldi, Cino; Faurby, S; Reed, D H; Knape, J; Björklund, M; Lundberg, P; Kaitala, V; Loeschcke, V; Bach, L A


    Theoretical ecologists have long sought to understand how the persistence of populations depends on the interactions between exogenous (biotic and abiotic) and endogenous (e.g., demographic and genetic) drivers of population dynamics. Recent work focuses on the autocorrelation structure of environmental perturbations and its effects on the persistence of populations. Accurate estimation of extinction times and especially determination of the mechanisms affecting extinction times is important for biodiversity conservation. Here we examine the interaction between environmental fluctuations and the scaling effect of the mean population size with its variance. We investigate how interactions between environmental and demographic stochasticity can affect the mean time to extinction, change optimal patch size dynamics, and how it can alter the often-assumed linear relationship between the census size and the effective population size. The importance of the correlation between environmental and demographic variation depends on the relative importance of the two types of variation. We found the correlation to be important when the two types of variation were approximately equal; however, the importance of the correlation diminishes as one source of variation dominates. The implications of these findings are discussed from a conservation and eco-evolutionary point of view.

  11. The Tragedy of the Commons : The Dynamic Adjustment under Unregulated Population Growth


    早川 弘晃


    The tragedy of the commons is often represented in terms of Nash equilibrium of a static game of complete information. Such elucidation is misleading since it does not capture the dynamics of an underlying process that eventually invites the tragedy as the number of the users increases without limit. Using a bucolic case as an example, this paper examines Hardin’s thesis from the standpoint of a dynamic process by elucidating the inherent logic of entry that is inevitable.The key to this proc...

  12. Projecting pest population dynamics under global warming: the combined effect of inter- and intra-annual variations. (United States)

    Zidon, Royi; Tsueda, Hirotsugu; Morin, Efrat; Morin, Shai


    The typical short generation length of insects makes their population dynamics highly sensitive not only to mean annual temperatures but also to their intra-annual variations. To consider the combined effect of both thermal factors under global warming, we propose a modeling framework that links general circulation models (GCMs) with a stochastic weather generator and population dynamics models to predict species population responses to inter- and intra-annual temperature changes. This framework was utilized to explore future changes in populations of Bemisia tabaci, an invasive insect pest-species that affects multiple agricultural systems in the Mediterranean region. We considered three locations representing different pest status and climatic conditions: Montpellier (France), Seville (Spain), and Beit-Jamal (Israel). We produced ensembles of local daily temperature realizations representing current and future (mid-21st century) climatic conditions under two emission scenarios for the three locations. Our simulations predicted a significant increase in the average number of annual generations and in population size, and a significant lengthening of the growing season in all three locations. A negative effect was found only in Seville for the summer season, where future temperatures lead to a reduction in population size. High variability in population size was observed between years with similar annual mean temperatures, suggesting a strong effect of intra-annual temperature variation. Critical periods were from late spring to late summer in Montpellier and from late winter to early summer in Seville and Beit-Jamal. Although our analysis suggested that earlier seasonal activity does not necessarily lead to increased populations load unless an additional generation is produced, it is highly likely that the insect will become a significant pest of open-fields at Mediterranean latitudes above 40° during the next 50 years. Our simulations also implied that current

  13. Dynamics of buckbrush populations under simulated forest restoration alternatives (P-53) (United States)

    David W. Huffman; Margaret M. Moore


    Plant population models are valuable tools for assessing ecological tradeoffs between forest management approaches. In addition, these models can provide insight on plant life history patterns and processes important for persistence and recovery of populations in changing environments. In this study, we evaluated a set of ecological restoration alternatives for their...

  14. Microbial Character Related Sulfur Cycle under Dynamic Environmental Factors Based on the Microbial Population Analysis in Sewerage System. (United States)

    Dong, Qian; Shi, Hanchang; Liu, Yanchen


    The undesired sulfur cycle derived by microbial population can ultimately causes the serious problems of sewerage systems. However, the microbial community characters under dynamic environment factors in actual sewerage system is still not enough. This current study aimed to character the distributions and compositions of microbial communities that participate in the sulfur cycle under the dynamic environmental conditions in a local sewerage system. To accomplish this, microbial community compositions were assessed using 454 high-throughput sequencing (16S rDNA) combined with dsrB gene-based denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis. The results indicated that a higher diversity of microbial species was present at locations in sewers with high concentrations of H 2 S. Actinobacteria and Proteobacteria were dominant in the sewerage system, while Actinobacteria alone were dominant in regions with high concentrations of H 2 S. Specifically, the unique operational taxonomic units could aid to characterize the distinct microbial communities within a sewerage manhole. The proportion of sulfate-reducing bacteria, each sulfur-oxidizing bacteria (SOB) were strongly correlated with the liquid parameters (DO, ORP, COD, Sulfide, NH 3 -N), while the Mycobacterium and Acidophilic SOB (M&A) was strongly correlated with gaseous factors within the sewer, such as H 2 S, CH 4 , and CO. Identifying the distributions and proportions of critical microbial communities within sewerage systems could provide insights into how the microbial sulfur cycle is affected by the dynamic environmental conditions that exist in sewers and might be useful for explaining the potential sewerage problems.

  15. Dynamic Analytical Capability to Better Understand and Anticipate Extremist Shifts Within Populations under Authoritarian Regimes.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernard, Michael Lewis [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)


    The purpose of this work is to create a generalizable data- and theory-supported capability to better understand and anticipate (with quantifiable uncertainty): 1) how the dynamics of allegiance formations between various groups and society are impacted by active conflict and by third-party interventions and 2) how/why extremist allegiances co-evolve over time due to changing geopolitical, sociocultural, and military conditions.

  16. Population dynamics of aerial and terrestrial populations Phytophthora ramorum in a California forest under different climatic conditions (United States)

    C.A. Eyre; M. Kozanitas; M. Garbelotto


    Limited information is available on how soil and leaf populations of the sudden oak death pathogen, Phytophthora ramorum, may differ in their response to changing weather conditions, and their corresponding role in initiating the next disease cycle after unfavorable weather conditions. We sampled and cultured from 425 trees in six sites, three...

  17. Fish population dynamics

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Gulland, J. A


    This book describes how the dynamics of fish populations can be analysed in terms of the factors affecting their rates of growth, mortality and reproduction, with particular emphasis on the effects of fishing...

  18. Market Squid Population Dynamics (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset contains population dynamics data on paralarvae, juvenile and adult market squid collected off California and the US Pacific Northwest. These data were...

  19. Regional Population Dynamics (United States)

    Andrew Birt


    The population dynamics of the southern pine beetle (SPB) exhibit characteristic fluctuations between relatively long endemic and shorter outbreak periods. Populations exhibit complex and hierarchical spatial structure with beetles and larvae aggregating within individual trees, infestations with multiple infested trees, and regional outbreaks that comprise a large...

  20. Population dynamics and intra-litter transmission patterns of Isospora suis in suckling piglets under on-farm conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sotiraki, S.; Roepstorff, A.; Nielsen, J.P.


    The aim of this study was to investigate the intra-litter infection dynamics of Isospora suis under natural conditions, and to study any association between parasite transmission and the contamination level of the farrowing pen by applying different interventions in order to reduce the transmissi...

  1. Intrinsically dynamic population models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Schoen


    Full Text Available Intrinsically dynamic models (IDMs depict populations whose cumulative growth rate over a number of intervals equals the product of the long term growth rates (that is the dominant roots or dominant eigenvalues associated with each of those intervals. Here the focus is on the birth trajectory produced by a sequence of population projection (Leslie matrices. The elements of a Leslie matrix are represented as straightforward functions of the roots of the matrix, and new relationships are presented linking the roots of a matrix to its Net Reproduction Rate and stable mean age of childbearing. Incorporating mortality changes in the rates of reproduction yields an IDM when the subordinate roots are held constant over time. In IDMs, the birth trajectory generated by any specified sequence of Leslie matrices can be found analytically. In the Leslie model with 15 year age groups, the constant subordinate root assumption leads to reasonable changes in the age pattern of fertility, and equations (27 and (30 provide the population size and structure that result from changing levels of net reproduction. IDMs generalize the fixed rate stable population model. They can characterize any observed population, and can provide new insights into dynamic demographic behavior, including the momentum associated with gradual or irregular paths to zero growth.

  2. Desiccation and Mortality Dynamics in Seedlings of Different European Beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) Populations under Extreme Drought Conditions (United States)

    Bolte, Andreas; Czajkowski, Tomasz; Cocozza, Claudia; Tognetti, Roberto; de Miguel, Marina; Pšidová, Eva; Ditmarová, Ĺubica; Dinca, Lucian; Delzon, Sylvain; Cochard, Hervè; Ræbild, Anders; de Luis, Martin; Cvjetkovic, Branislav; Heiri, Caroline; Müller, Jürgen


    European beech (Fagus sylvatica L., hereafter beech), one of the major native tree species in Europe, is known to be drought sensitive. Thus, the identification of critical thresholds of drought impact intensity and duration are of high interest for assessing the adaptive potential of European beech to climate change in its native range. In a common garden experiment with one-year-old seedlings originating from central and marginal origins in six European countries (Denmark, Germany, France, Romania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Spain), we applied extreme drought stress and observed desiccation and mortality processes among the different populations and related them to plant water status (predawn water potential, ΨPD) and soil hydraulic traits. For the lethal drought assessment, we used a critical threshold of soil water availability that is reached when 50% mortality in seedling populations occurs (LD50SWA). We found significant population differences in LD50SWA (10.5–17.8%), and mortality dynamics that suggest a genetic difference in drought resistance between populations. The LD50SWA values correlate significantly with the mean growing season precipitation at population origins, but not with the geographic margins of beech range. Thus, beech range marginality may be more due to climatic conditions than to geographic range. The outcome of this study suggests the genetic variation has a major influence on the varying adaptive potential of the investigated populations. PMID:27379105

  3. Population dynamics, information transfer, and spatial organization in a chemical reaction network under spatial confinement and crowding conditions. (United States)

    Bellesia, Giovanni; Bales, Benjamin B


    We investigate, via Brownian dynamics simulations, the reaction dynamics of a generic, nonlinear chemical network under spatial confinement and crowding conditions. In detail, the Willamowski-Rossler chemical reaction system has been "extended" and considered as a prototype reaction-diffusion system. Our results are potentially relevant to a number of open problems in biophysics and biochemistry, such as the synthesis of primitive cellular units (protocells) and the definition of their role in the chemical origin of life and the characterization of vesicle-mediated drug delivery processes. More generally, the computational approach presented in this work makes the case for the use of spatial stochastic simulation methods for the study of biochemical networks in vivo where the "well-mixed" approximation is invalid and both thermal and intrinsic fluctuations linked to the possible presence of molecular species in low number copies cannot be averaged out.

  4. Wildlife Population Dynamics in Human-Dominated Landscapes under Community-Based Conservation: The Example of Nakuru Wildlife Conservancy, Kenya. (United States)

    Ogutu, Joseph O; Kuloba, Bernard; Piepho, Hans-Peter; Kanga, Erustus


    Wildlife conservation is facing numerous and mounting challenges on private and communal lands in Africa, including in Kenya. We analyze the population dynamics of 44 common wildlife species in relation to rainfall variation in the Nakuru Wildlife Conservancy (NWC), located in the Nakuru-Naivasha region of Kenya, based on ground total counts carried out twice each year from March 1996 to May 2015. Rainfall in the region was quasi-periodic with cycle periods dependent on the rainfall component and varying from 2.8 years for the dry season to 10.9 years for the wet season. These oscillations are associated with frequent severe droughts and food scarcity for herbivores. The trends for the 44 wildlife species showed five general patterns during 1996-2015. 1) Steinbuck, bushbuck, hartebeest and greater kudu numbers declined persistently and significantly throughout 1996-2015 and thus merit the greatest conservation attention. 2) Klipspringer, mongoose, oribi, porcupine, cheetah, leopard, ostrich and Sykes monkey numbers also decreased noticeably but not significantly between 1996 and 2015. 3) Dik dik, eland, African hare, Jackal, duiker, hippo and Thomson's gazelle numbers first increased and then declined between 1996 and 2015 but only significantly for duiker and hippo. 4) Aardvark, serval cat, colobus monkey, bat-eared fox, reedbuck, hyena and baboon numbers first declined and then increased but only the increases in reedbuck and baboon numbers were significant. 5) Grant's gazelle, Grevy's zebra, lion, spring hare, Burchell's zebra, bushpig, white rhino, rock hyrax, topi, oryx, vervet monkey, guinea fowl, giraffe, and wildebeest numbers increased consistently between 1996 and 2015. The increase was significant only for rock hyrax, topi, vervet monkey, guinea fowl, giraffe and wildebeest. 6) Impala, buffalo, warthog, and waterbuck, numbers increased significantly and then seemed to level off between 1996 and 2015. The aggregate biomass of primates and carnivores

  5. Wildlife Population Dynamics in Human-Dominated Landscapes under Community-Based Conservation: The Example of Nakuru Wildlife Conservancy, Kenya.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph O Ogutu

    Full Text Available Wildlife conservation is facing numerous and mounting challenges on private and communal lands in Africa, including in Kenya. We analyze the population dynamics of 44 common wildlife species in relation to rainfall variation in the Nakuru Wildlife Conservancy (NWC, located in the Nakuru-Naivasha region of Kenya, based on ground total counts carried out twice each year from March 1996 to May 2015. Rainfall in the region was quasi-periodic with cycle periods dependent on the rainfall component and varying from 2.8 years for the dry season to 10.9 years for the wet season. These oscillations are associated with frequent severe droughts and food scarcity for herbivores. The trends for the 44 wildlife species showed five general patterns during 1996-2015. 1 Steinbuck, bushbuck, hartebeest and greater kudu numbers declined persistently and significantly throughout 1996-2015 and thus merit the greatest conservation attention. 2 Klipspringer, mongoose, oribi, porcupine, cheetah, leopard, ostrich and Sykes monkey numbers also decreased noticeably but not significantly between 1996 and 2015. 3 Dik dik, eland, African hare, Jackal, duiker, hippo and Thomson's gazelle numbers first increased and then declined between 1996 and 2015 but only significantly for duiker and hippo. 4 Aardvark, serval cat, colobus monkey, bat-eared fox, reedbuck, hyena and baboon numbers first declined and then increased but only the increases in reedbuck and baboon numbers were significant. 5 Grant's gazelle, Grevy's zebra, lion, spring hare, Burchell's zebra, bushpig, white rhino, rock hyrax, topi, oryx, vervet monkey, guinea fowl, giraffe, and wildebeest numbers increased consistently between 1996 and 2015. The increase was significant only for rock hyrax, topi, vervet monkey, guinea fowl, giraffe and wildebeest. 6 Impala, buffalo, warthog, and waterbuck, numbers increased significantly and then seemed to level off between 1996 and 2015. The aggregate biomass of primates and

  6. Assessment of the diversity and dynamics of Plum pox virus and aphid populations in transgenic European plums under Mediterranean conditions. (United States)

    Capote, Nieves; Pérez-Panadés, Jordi; Monzó, César; Carbonell, Emilio; Urbaneja, Alberto; Scorza, Ralph; Ravelonandro, Michel; Cambra, Mariano


    The molecular variability of Plum pox virus (PPV) populations was compared in transgenic European plums (Prunus domestica L.) carrying the coat protein (CP) gene of PPV and non-transgenic plums in an experimental orchard in Valencia, Spain. A major objective of this study was to detect recombination between PPV CP transgene transcripts and infecting PPV RNA. Additionally, we assessed the number and species of PPV aphid vectors that visited transgenic and non-transgenic plum trees. Test trees consisted of five different P. domestica transgenic lines, i.e. the PPV-resistant C5 'HoneySweet' line and the PPV-susceptible C4, C6, PT6 and PT23 lines, and non-transgenic P. domestica and P. salicina Lind trees. No significant difference in the genetic diversity of PPV populations infecting transgenic and conventional plums was detected, in particular no recombinant between transgene transcripts and incoming viral RNA was found at detectable levels. Also, no significant difference was detected in aphid populations, including viruliferous individuals, that visited transgenic and conventional plums. Our data indicate that PPV-CP transgenic European plums exposed to natural PPV infection over an 8 year period caused limited, if any, risk beyond the cultivation of conventional plums under Mediterranean conditions in terms of the emergence of recombinant PPV and diversity of PPV and aphid populations.

  7. DISPLACE: a dynamic, individual-based model for spatial fishing planning and effort displacement: Integrating underlying fish population models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bastardie, Francois; Nielsen, J. Rasmus; Miethe, Tanja

    or to the alteration of individual fishing patterns. We demonstrate that integrating the spatial activity of vessels and local fish stock abundance dynamics allow for interactions and more realistic predictions of fishermen behaviour, revenues and stock abundance......We previously developed a spatially explicit, individual-based model (IBM) evaluating the bio-economic efficiency of fishing vessel movements between regions according to the catching and targeting of different species based on the most recent high resolution spatial fishery data. The main purpose...... was to test the effects of alternative fishing effort allocation scenarios related to fuel consumption, energy efficiency (value per litre of fuel), sustainable fish stock harvesting, and profitability of the fisheries. The assumption here was constant underlying resource availability. Now, an advanced...

  8. Memory dynamics under stress. (United States)

    Quaedflieg, Conny W E M; Schwabe, Lars


    Stressful events have a major impact on memory. They modulate memory formation in a time-dependent manner, closely linked to the temporal profile of action of major stress mediators, in particular catecholamines and glucocorticoids. Shortly after stressor onset, rapidly acting catecholamines and fast, non-genomic glucocorticoid actions direct cognitive resources to the processing and consolidation of the ongoing threat. In parallel, control of memory is biased towards rather rigid systems, promoting habitual forms of memory allowing efficient processing under stress, at the expense of "cognitive" systems supporting memory flexibility and specificity. In this review, we discuss the implications of this shift in the balance of multiple memory systems for the dynamics of the memory trace. Specifically, stress appears to hinder the incorporation of contextual details into the memory trace, to impede the integration of new information into existing knowledge structures, to impair the flexible generalisation across past experiences, and to hamper the modification of memories in light of new information. Delayed, genomic glucocorticoid actions might reverse the control of memory, thus restoring homeostasis and "cognitive" control of memory again.

  9. Population dynamics of Escherichia coli inoculated by irrigation into the phyllosphere of spinach grown under commercial production conditions. (United States)

    Wood, J D; Bezanson, G S; Gordon, R J; Jamieson, R


    Recent outbreaks of food-borne illnesses associated with the consumption of fresh produce have increased attention on irrigation water as a potential source of pathogen contamination. A better understanding of the behaviour of enteric pathogens introduced into agricultural systems during irrigation will aid in risk assessments and support the development of appropriate farm-level water management practices. For this reason, the survival dynamics of two nalidixic acid resistant strains of Escherichia coli after their spray inoculation into the phyllosphere and soil of field spinach were examined over two growing seasons. E. coli strains NAR, an environmental isolate, and DM3n, a non-pathogenic serotype O157:H7, were applied at rates of 10⁴ to 10⁷ cfu/100ml to the fully developed spinach plants that arose subsequent to the harvesting of their upper leafy portions for commercial purposes (secondary-growth plants). After 72 h, E. coli on spinach were reduced by 3-5 logs. Culturable E. coli were recovered from plants up to 6 days post-inoculation. Survival in soil was greater than in the phyllosphere. Under ambient conditions, the mean 72 h first order decay constant computed by Chick's Law was 0.1 h⁻¹. Although light reduction studies indicated UV irradiation negatively influenced the persistence of E. coli, a simple relationship between UV exposure and phyllosphere E. coli densities could not be established. E. coli introduced to the leafy portions of spinach via spray irrigation displayed rapid declines in their culturability under the open environmental conditions experienced during this study. A 6 day period between the last irrigation and harvest would minimize the risks of E. coli survival in the spinach phyllosphere. E. coli NAR was identified as a possible surrogate for the O157:H7 strain, DM3n. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Evolutionary dynamics of diploid populations (United States)

    Desimone, Ralph; Newman, Timothy


    There has been much recent interest in constructing computer models of evolutionary dynamics. Typically these models focus on asexual population dynamics, which are appropriate for haploid organsims such as bacteria. Using a recently developed ``genome template'' model, we extend the algorithm to a sexual population of diploid organisms. We will present some early results showing the temporal evolution of mean fitness and genetic variation, and compare this to typical results from haploid populations.

  11. Development of a predictive model for the growth kinetics of aerobic microbial population on pomegranate marinated chicken breast fillets under isothermal and dynamic temperature conditions. (United States)

    Lytou, Anastasia; Panagou, Efstathios Z; Nychas, George-John E


    The aim of this study was the development of a model to describe the growth kinetics of aerobic microbial population of chicken breast fillets marinated in pomegranate juice under isothermal and dynamic temperature conditions. Moreover, the effect of pomegranate juice on the extension of the shelf life of the product was investigated. Samples (10 g) of chicken breast fillets were immersed in marinades containing pomegranate juice for 3 h at 4 °C following storage under aerobic conditions at 4, 10, and 15 °C for 10 days. Total Viable Counts (TVC), Pseudomonas spp and lactic acid bacteria (LAB) were enumerated, in parallel with sensory assessment (odor and overall appearance) of marinated and non-marinated samples. The Baranyi model was fitted to the growth data of TVC to calculate the maximum specific growth rate (μmax) that was further modeled as a function of temperature using a square root-type model. The validation of the model was conducted under dynamic temperature conditions based on two fluctuating temperature scenarios with periodic changes from 6 to 13 °C. The shelf life was determined both mathematically and with sensory assessment and its temperature dependence was modeled by an Arrhenius type equation. Results showed that the μmax of TVC of marinated samples was significantly lower compared to control samples regardless temperature, while under dynamic temperature conditions the model satisfactorily predicted the growth of TVC in both control and marinated samples. The shelf-life of marinated samples was significantly extended compared to the control (5 days extension at 4 °C). The calculated activation energies (Ea), 82 and 52 kJ/mol for control and marinated samples, respectively, indicated higher temperature dependence of the shelf life of control samples compared to marinated ones. The present results indicated that pomegranate juice could be used as an alternative ingredient in marinades to prolong the shelf life of chicken. Copyright © 2015

  12. Africa population dynamics


    Akinyoade, A.; Damen, J.C.M.; Dietz, A.J.; Kilama, B.B.; Omme, van, G.


    Africa's population has grown extremely rapidly over the last fifty years from 289 million inhabitants in 1961 to more than 1 billion today. This is a growth rate of 350% in just half a century and the number of urban residents has increased even more quickly: from 65 million in 1960 to 460 million today, or from 20% to 46% of the population as a whole. Demographers predict that soon more than 50% of all Africans will be living in cities. The average life expectancy, literacy rates and primar...

  13. Africa population dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Akinyoade, A.; Damen, J.C.M.; Dietz, A.J.; Kilama, B.B.; Omme, van G.


    Africa's population has grown extremely rapidly over the last fifty years from 289 million inhabitants in 1961 to more than 1 billion today. This is a growth rate of 350% in just half a century and the number of urban residents has increased even more quickly: from 65 million in 1960 to 460 million

  14. Wild and semi-domesticated reindeer in Russia: status, population dynamics and trends under the present social and economic conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eugene E. Syroechkovski


    Full Text Available At present (in 1999 there are approximately 1.5 million semi-domesticated and 1.3 million wild reindeer in Russia. The co-existence of these two forms remains a major problem. Reindeer herding has declined while the number of wild reindeer has increased during the last 10 years. The main causes of these changes are social and economic. The 1960s and 1970s were characterised by a deliberate attempt to eradicate the nomadic way of life of reindeer herders. It was relatively easy to introduce public (kolkhoz or sovkhoz reindeer herding in the Nenets, Chukchi and Komi-Izhem areas where large-scale reindeer herding was typical and, as a result, there were almost 1 million reindeer in collectives in the extreme north-eastern part of the USSR. At the same time reindeer herding deteriorated among the Khanty, Mansi, Evenk, Even, Selkup peoples. Perestroika in the 1990s resulted in the formation of a market economy. Collective reindeer herding declined and the number of semi-domesticated reindeer decreased during a period of gradual return to private ownership of reindeer. The largest region of reindeer herding is now the Nenets tegion in the north-west of Russia. Successful sympatric existence of wild and semi-domesticated reindeer is not possible. The Taimyr wild reindeer population numbers about 500-600 000 reindeer. From 1971 to 1981 not less than 700 000 reindeer in this population were shot. Ecological and economic control over them has now been lost. There are approximately 200 000 animals in Yakutia. The number of wild reindeer here has grown following the decline of reindeer husbandry. Yakut and Even reindeer herders believe that the decline has been due to wild reindeer drawing semi-domesticated teindeer away. At present 13 aboriginal peoples in northern Russia engage in reindeer herding. Five former reindeer herding peoples have given up herding but thete are signs of improvement in the situation among those peoples which have retained reindeer

  15. Dynamical systems in population biology

    CERN Document Server

    Zhao, Xiao-Qiang


    This research monograph provides an introduction to the theory of nonautonomous semiflows with applications to population dynamics. It develops dynamical system approaches to various evolutionary equations such as difference, ordinary, functional, and partial differential equations, and pays more attention to periodic and almost periodic phenomena. The presentation includes persistence theory, monotone dynamics, periodic and almost periodic semiflows, basic reproduction ratios, traveling waves, and global analysis of prototypical population models in ecology and epidemiology. Research mathematicians working with nonlinear dynamics, particularly those interested in applications to biology, will find this book useful. It may also be used as a textbook or as supplementary reading for a graduate special topics course on the theory and applications of dynamical systems. Dr. Xiao-Qiang Zhao is a University Research Professor at Memorial University of Newfoundland, Canada. His main research interests involve applied...

  16. Comparing models of Red Knot population dynamics (United States)

    McGowan, Conor P.


    Predictive population modeling contributes to our basic scientific understanding of population dynamics, but can also inform management decisions by evaluating alternative actions in virtual environments. Quantitative models mathematically reflect scientific hypotheses about how a system functions. In Delaware Bay, mid-Atlantic Coast, USA, to more effectively manage horseshoe crab (Limulus polyphemus) harvests and protect Red Knot (Calidris canutus rufa) populations, models are used to compare harvest actions and predict the impacts on crab and knot populations. Management has been chiefly driven by the core hypothesis that horseshoe crab egg abundance governs the survival and reproduction of migrating Red Knots that stopover in the Bay during spring migration. However, recently, hypotheses proposing that knot dynamics are governed by cyclical lemming dynamics garnered some support in data analyses. In this paper, I present alternative models of Red Knot population dynamics to reflect alternative hypotheses. Using 2 models with different lemming population cycle lengths and 2 models with different horseshoe crab effects, I project the knot population into the future under environmental stochasticity and parametric uncertainty with each model. I then compare each model's predictions to 10 yr of population monitoring from Delaware Bay. Using Bayes' theorem and model weight updating, models can accrue weight or support for one or another hypothesis of population dynamics. With 4 models of Red Knot population dynamics and only 10 yr of data, no hypothesis clearly predicted population count data better than another. The collapsed lemming cycle model performed best, accruing ~35% of the model weight, followed closely by the horseshoe crab egg abundance model, which accrued ~30% of the weight. The models that predicted no decline or stable populations (i.e. the 4-yr lemming cycle model and the weak horseshoe crab effect model) were the most weakly supported.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Rosa Bonet Casas


    Full Text Available This paper is the result of a research carried out in 2006 in a partnership between the Universitat de Barcelona and the Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, which was aimed to define guidelines to recover the architectural and scenic values of villages in almost abandoned Pyrenean valleys in Catalunya. The research studied at different levels (geographical, urban and architectural the villages of several valleys in order to find out the factors more determinant to explain their degree of revitalization or decay. As a result of the research, the paper presents some conclusions on how to intervene on those pyrenean valleys: to work at the level of geographical units rather than with singular villages or individuals; to establish degrees of priority of intervention between the valleys in order to increase the efficiency of the actions; to ensure high quality infrastructure levels on the selected valleys; to fix strict limits to the construction of new vacation houses in high mountain villages in order to orient the real state demand to the rehabilitation of existing buildings; to create a program of subsidies to help the permanent population working on the primary sector to rehabilitate their dwellings; to promote the display of the natural and cultural richness of the valleys as a main factor for their revitalization; to support private and civic actions oriented to the recover of the valleys.

  18. Evolutionary dynamics of cooperation in neutral populations (United States)

    Szolnoki, Attila; Perc, Matjaž


    Cooperation is a difficult proposition in the face of Darwinian selection. Those that defect have an evolutionary advantage over cooperators who should therefore die out. However, spatial structure enables cooperators to survive through the formation of homogeneous clusters, which is the hallmark of network reciprocity. Here we go beyond this traditional setup and study the spatiotemporal dynamics of cooperation in a population of populations. We use the prisoner's dilemma game as the mathematical model and show that considering several populations simultaneously gives rise to fascinating spatiotemporal dynamics and pattern formation. Even the simplest assumption that strategies between different populations are payoff-neutral with one another results in the spontaneous emergence of cyclic dominance, where defectors of one population become prey of cooperators in the other population, and vice versa. Moreover, if social interactions within different populations are characterized by significantly different temptations to defect, we observe that defectors in the population with the largest temptation counterintuitively vanish the fastest, while cooperators that hang on eventually take over the whole available space. Our results reveal that considering the simultaneous presence of different populations significantly expands the complexity of evolutionary dynamics in structured populations, and it allows us to understand the stability of cooperation under adverse conditions that could never be bridged by network reciprocity alone.

  19. Evolutionary dynamics in structured populations (United States)

    Nowak, Martin A.; Tarnita, Corina E.; Antal, Tibor


    Evolutionary dynamics shape the living world around us. At the centre of every evolutionary process is a population of reproducing individuals. The structure of that population affects evolutionary dynamics. The individuals can be molecules, cells, viruses, multicellular organisms or humans. Whenever the fitness of individuals depends on the relative abundance of phenotypes in the population, we are in the realm of evolutionary game theory. Evolutionary game theory is a general approach that can describe the competition of species in an ecosystem, the interaction between hosts and parasites, between viruses and cells, and also the spread of ideas and behaviours in the human population. In this perspective, we review the recent advances in evolutionary game dynamics with a particular emphasis on stochastic approaches in finite sized and structured populations. We give simple, fundamental laws that determine how natural selection chooses between competing strategies. We study the well-mixed population, evolutionary graph theory, games in phenotype space and evolutionary set theory. We apply these results to the evolution of cooperation. The mechanism that leads to the evolution of cooperation in these settings could be called ‘spatial selection’: cooperators prevail against defectors by clustering in physical or other spaces. PMID:20008382

  20. Population dynamics in variable environments

    CERN Document Server

    Tuljapurkar, Shripad


    Demography relates observable facts about individuals to the dynamics of populations. If the dynamics are linear and do not change over time, the classical theory of Lotka (1907) and Leslie (1945) is the central tool of demography. This book addresses the situation when the assumption of constancy is dropped. In many practical situations, a population will display unpredictable variation over time in its vital rates, which must then be described in statistical terms. Most of this book is concerned with the theory of populations which are subject to random temporal changes in their vital rates, although other kinds of variation (e. g. , cyclical) are also dealt with. The central questions are: how does temporal variation work its way into a population's future, and how does it affect our interpretation of a population's past. The results here are directed at demographers of humans and at popula­ tion biologists. The uneven mathematical level is dictated by the material, but the book should be accessible to re...

  1. Allee effects on population dynamics in continuous (overlapping) case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Merdan, H.; Duman, O.; Akin, O.; Celik, C.


    This paper presents the stability analysis of equilibrium points of a continuous population dynamics with delay under the Allee effect which occurs at low population density. The mathematical results and numerical simulations show the stabilizing role of the Allee effects on the stability of the equilibrium point of this population dynamics.

  2. Evolutionary dynamics under interactive diversity (United States)

    Su, Qi; Li, Aming; Wang, Long


    As evidenced by many cases in human societies, individuals often make different behavior decisions in different interactions, and adaptively adjust their behavior in changeable interactive scenarios. However, up to now, how such diverse interactive behavior affects cooperation dynamics has still remained unknown. Here we develop a general framework of interactive diversity, which models individuals’ separated behavior against distinct opponents and their adaptive adjustment in response to opponents’ strategies, to explore the evolution of cooperation. We find that interactive diversity enables individuals to reciprocate every single opponent, and thus sustains large-scale reciprocal interactions. Our work witnesses an impressive boost of cooperation for a notably extensive range of parameters and for all pairwise games. These results are robust against well-mixed and various networked populations, and against degree-normalized and cumulative payoff patterns. From the perspective of network dynamics, distinguished from individuals competing for nodes in most previous work, in this paper, the system evolves in the form of behavior disseminating along edges. We propose a theoretical method based on evolution of edges, which predicts well both the frequency of cooperation and the compact cooperation clusters. Our thorough investigation clarifies the positive role of interactive diversity in resolving social dilemmas and highlights the significance of understanding evolutionary dynamics from the viewpoint of edge dynamics.

  3. Nonlinear dynamics of interacting populations

    CERN Document Server

    Bazykin, Alexander D


    This book contains a systematic study of ecological communities of two or three interacting populations. Starting from the Lotka-Volterra system, various regulating factors are considered, such as rates of birth and death, predation and competition. The different factors can have a stabilizing or a destabilizing effect on the community, and their interplay leads to increasingly complicated behavior. Studying and understanding this path to greater dynamical complexity of ecological systems constitutes the backbone of this book. On the mathematical side, the tool of choice is the qualitative the

  4. Flood trends and population dynamics (United States)

    Di Baldassarre, G.


    Since the earliest recorded civilizations, such as those in Mesopotamia and Egypt that developed in the fertile floodplains of the Tigris and Euphrates and Nile rivers, humans tend to settle in flood prone areas as they offer favorable conditions for economic development. However, floodplains are also exposed to flood disasters that might cause severe socio-economic and environmental damages not to mention losses of human lives. A flood event turns to be a disaster when it coincides with a vulnerable environment exceeding society's capacity to manage the adverse consequences. This presentation discusses the link between hydrological risk and population change by referring to the outcomes of scientific works recently carried out in Africa and Europe. More specifically, it is shown that the severity of flood disasters, currently affecting more than 100 million people a year, might be seriously exacerbated because of population change. In fact, flood exposure and/or vulnerability might increase because of rapid population growth (and its spatial and temporal dynamics, e.g. urbanization) in the African continent and because of population ageing in many European countries. Lastly, timely and economically sustainable actions to mitigate this increasing hydrological risk are critically evaluated.

  5. Modeling the effects of climate on date palm scale ( Parlatoria blanchardi) population dynamics during different phenological stages of life history under hot arid conditions (United States)

    Idder-Ighili, Hakima; Idder, Mohamed Azzedine; Doumandji-Mitiche, Bahia; Chenchouni, Haroun


    The date palm scale (DPS) Parlatoria blanchardi is a serious pest due to the damage it inflicts on its host tree ( Phoenix dactylifera). To develop an effective control against DPS in arid regions, it is essential to know its bio-ecology including population dynamics and climatic factors influencing the duration and timing of life history and also the densities of different phenological stages (crawlers, first and second instars nymphs, adult males, and adult females). Monitoring of biological cycle and population dynamics of the pest were achieved through weekly counts of DPS densities on leaflets sampled at different position of date palm trees in an oasis of Ouargla region (Algerian Sahara Desert). Within this hyper-arid region, DPS established four generations per year, the most important was the spring generation. Two overlapping generations occurred in spring-early summer and two in autumn-early winter; these two pairs of generations were interspersed by two phases of high-mortality rates, the first corresponds to winter cold and the second refers to the extreme heat of summer. Statistical analysis of the effects of the studied climatic conditions (minimum, maximum and mean temperatures, precipitation, humidity, wind, rain days, and climatic indices) on the DPS densities at different phenological stages showed great variability from one stage to another. Among these, adult females were the most affected by climate factors. For the total DPS population, high values of minimum temperatures negatively affected population density, while high maximum temperatures, hygrometry, and De Martonne aridity index showed a positive influence.

  6. Population Model with a Dynamic Food Supply (United States)

    Dickman, Ronald; da Silva Nascimento, Jonas


    We propose a simple population model including the food supply as a dynamic variable. In the model, survival of an organism depends on a certain minimum rate of food consumption; a higher rate of consumption is required for reproduction. We investigate the stationary behavior under steady food input, and the transient behavior of growth and decay when food is present initially but is not replenished. Under a periodic food supply, the system exhibits period-doubling bifurcations and chaos in certain ranges of the reproduction rate. Bifurcations and chaos are favored by a slow reproduction rate and a long period of food-supply oscillation.

  7. Dynamic single-cell analysis of Saccharomyces cerevisiae under process perturbation: Comparison of different methods for monitoring the intensity of population heterogeneity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Delvigne, Frank; Baert, Jonathan; Gofflot, Sébastien


    BACKGROUND: Single cell biology has attracted a lot of attention in recent years and has led to numerous fundamental results pointing out the heterogeneity of clonal cell populations. In this context, microbial phenotypic heterogeneity under bioprocessing conditions needs to be further investigat...

  8. Population dynamics and biology of an invasive population of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Population dynamics and biology of an invasive population of mosquitofish Gambusia affinis in a temperate estuarine lake system. Hans Sloterdijk, Nicola C. James, M Kyle S. Smith, Werner Ekau, Olaf L.F. Weyl ...

  9. Analysis of Population Dynamics in World Economy


    Martin, Gress


    Population dynamics is an important topic in current world economy. The size and growth of population have an impact on economic growth and development of individual countries and vice versa, economic development influences demographic variables in a country. The aim of the article is to analyze historical development of world population, population stock change and relations between population stock change and economic development.

  10. Delay differential systems for tick population dynamics. (United States)

    Fan, Guihong; Thieme, Horst R; Zhu, Huaiping


    Ticks play a critical role as vectors in the transmission and spread of Lyme disease, an emerging infectious disease which can cause severe illness in humans or animals. To understand the transmission dynamics of Lyme disease and other tick-borne diseases, it is necessary to investigate the population dynamics of ticks. Here, we formulate a system of delay differential equations which models the stage structure of the tick population. Temperature can alter the length of time delays in each developmental stage, and so the time delays can vary geographically (and seasonally which we do not consider). We define the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] of stage structured tick populations. The tick population is uniformly persistent if [Formula: see text] and dies out if [Formula: see text]. We present sufficient conditions under which the unique positive equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stable. In general, the positive equilibrium can be unstable and the system show oscillatory behavior. These oscillations are primarily due to negative feedback within the tick system, but can be enhanced by the time delays of the different developmental stages.

  11. Population dynamics in vasopressin cells. (United States)

    Leng, Gareth; Brown, Colin; Sabatier, Nancy; Scott, Victoria


    Most neurons sense and code change, and when presented with a constant stimulus they adapt, so as to be able to detect a fresh change. However, for some things it is important to know their absolute level; to encode such information, neurons must sustain their response to an unchanging stimulus while remaining able to respond to a change in that stimulus. One system that encodes the absolute level of a stimulus is the vasopressin system, which generates a hormonal signal that is proportional to plasma osmolality. Vasopressin cells sense plasma osmolality and secrete appropriate levels of vasopressin from the neurohypophysis as needed to control water excretion; this requires sustained secretion under basal conditions and the ability to increase (or decrease) secretion should plasma osmolality change. Here we explore the mechanisms that enable vasopressin cells to fulfill this function, and consider how coordination between the cells might distribute the secretory load across the population of vasopressin cells. 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  12. Monitoring microbial population dynamics at low densities (United States)

    Julou, Thomas; Desprat, Nicolas; Bensimon, David; Croquette, Vincent


    We propose a new and simple method for the measurement of microbial concentrations in highly diluted cultures. This method is based on an analysis of the intensity fluctuations of light scattered by microbial cells under laser illumination. Two possible measurement strategies are identified and compared using simulations and measurements of the concentration of gold nanoparticles. Based on this comparison, we show that the concentration of Escherichia coli and Saccharomyces cerevisiae cultures can be easily measured in situ across a concentration range that spans five orders of magnitude. The lowest measurable concentration is three orders of magnitude (1000×) smaller than in current optical density measurements. We show further that this method can also be used to measure the concentration of fluorescent microbial cells. In practice, this new method is well suited to monitor the dynamics of population growth at early colonization of a liquid culture medium. The dynamic data thus obtained are particularly relevant for microbial ecology studies.

  13. Speckle dynamics under ergodicity breaking (United States)

    Sdobnov, Anton; Bykov, Alexander; Molodij, Guillaume; Kalchenko, Vyacheslav; Jarvinen, Topias; Popov, Alexey; Kordas, Krisztian; Meglinski, Igor


    Laser speckle contrast imaging (LSCI) is a well-known and versatile approach for the non-invasive visualization of flows and microcirculation localized in turbid scattering media, including biological tissues. In most conventional implementations of LSCI the ergodic regime is typically assumed valid. However, most composite turbid scattering media, especially biological tissues, are non-ergodic, containing a mixture of dynamic and static centers of light scattering. In the current study, we examined the speckle contrast in different dynamic conditions with the aim of assessing limitations in the quantitative interpretation of speckle contrast images. Based on a simple phenomenological approach, we introduced a coefficient of speckle dynamics to quantitatively assess the ratio of the dynamic part of a scattering medium to the static one. The introduced coefficient allows one to distinguish real changes in motion from the mere appearance of static components in the field of view. As examples of systems with static/dynamic transitions, thawing and heating of Intralipid samples were studied by the LSCI approach.

  14. Leading edge gypsy moth population dynamics (United States)

    M. R. Carter; F. W. Ravlin; M. L. McManus


    Leading edge gypsy moth populations have been the focus of several intervention programs (MDIPM, AIPM). Knowledge of gypsy moth population dynamics in leading edge area is crucial for effective management. Populations in these areas tend to reach outbreak levels (noticeable defoliation) within three to four years after egg masses are first detected. Pheromone traps...

  15. Beryllium strain under dynamic loading

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pushkov Victor


    Full Text Available There are some data (not much on dynamic characteristics of beryllium that are important, for example, when estimating construction performance at NPP emergencies. A number of data on stress-strain curves, spall strength, shear strength, fracture and structure responses of shock loaded beryllium have obtained in US and Russian laboratories. For today the model description of this complex metal behavior does not have a reasonable agreement with the experimental data, thus a wider spectrum of experimental data is required. This work presents data on dynamic compression-test diagrams of Russian beryllium. Experiments are performed using Hopkinson bar method (SHPB. Strain rates were ε ∼ 103 s−1.

  16. Population dynamics and population control of Galium aparine L.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weide, van der R.Y.


    The population biology of Galium aparine L. needs to be better understood, in order to be able to rationalize decisions about the short- and long-term control of this weed species for different cropping practices.

    A population dynamics model was developed to

  17. Stochastic population dynamic models as probability networks (United States)

    M.E. and D.C. Lee. Borsuk


    The dynamics of a population and its response to environmental change depend on the balance of birth, death and age-at-maturity, and there have been many attempts to mathematically model populations based on these characteristics. Historically, most of these models were deterministic, meaning that the results were strictly determined by the equations of the model and...

  18. How Resource Phenology Affects Consumer Population Dynamics. (United States)

    Bewick, Sharon; Cantrell, R Stephen; Cosner, Chris; Fagan, William F


    Climate change drives uneven phenology shifts across taxa, and this can result in changes to the phenological match between interacting species. Shifts in the relative phenology of partner species are well documented, but few studies have addressed the effects of such changes on population dynamics. To explore this, we develop a phenologically explicit model describing consumer-resource interactions. Focusing on scenarios for univoltine insects, we show how changes in resource phenology can be reinterpreted as transformations in the year-to-year recursion relationships defining consumer population dynamics. This perspective provides a straightforward path for interpreting the long-term population consequences of phenology change. Specifically, by relating the outcome of phenological shifts to species traits governing recursion relationships (e.g., consumer fecundity or competitive scenario), we demonstrate how changes in relative phenology can force systems into different dynamical regimes, with major implications for resource management, conservation, and other areas of applied dynamics.

  19. Changing population dynamics and uneven temperature emergence combine to exacerbate regional exposure to heat extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C of warming (United States)

    Harrington, Luke J.; Otto, Friederike E. L.


    Understanding how continuing increases in global mean temperature will exacerbate societal exposure to extreme weather events is a question of profound importance. However, determining population exposure to the impacts of heat extremes at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global mean warming requires not only (1) a robust understanding of the physical climate system response, but also consideration of (2) projected changes to overall population size, as well as (3) changes to where people will live in the future. This analysis introduces a new framework, adapted from studies of probabilistic event attribution, to disentangle the relative importance of regional climate emergence and changing population dynamics in the exposure to future heat extremes across multiple densely populated regions in Southern Asia and Eastern Africa (SAEA). Our results reveal that, when population is kept at 2015 levels, exposure to heat considered severe in the present decade across SAEA will increase by a factor of 4.1 (2.4-9.6) and 15.8 (5.0-135) under a 1.5°- and 2.0°-warmer world, respectively. Furthermore, projected population changes by the end of the century under an SSP1 and SSP2 scenario can further exacerbate these changes by a factor of 1.2 (1.0-1.3) and 1.5 (1.3-1.7), respectively. However, a large fraction of this additional risk increase is not related to absolute increases in population, but instead attributed to changes in which regions exhibit continued population growth into the future. Further, this added impact of population redistribution will be twice as significant after 2.0 °C of warming, relative to stabilisation at 1.5 °C, due to the non-linearity of increases in heat exposure. Irrespective of the population scenario considered, continued African population expansion will place more people in locations where emergent changes to future heat extremes are exceptionally severe.

  20. Population Dynamics and Air Pollution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flachs, Esben Meulengracht; Sørensen, Jan; Bønløkke, Jacob


    Objective. To explore how three different assumptions on demographics affect the health impact of Danish emitted air pollution in Denmark from 2005 to 2030, with health impact modeled from 2005 to 2050. Methods. Modeled air pollution from Danish sources was used as exposure in a newly developed......) a static year 2005 population, (2) morbidity and mortality fixed at the year 2005 level, or (3) an expected development. Results. The health impact of air pollution was estimated at 672,000, 290,000, and 280,000 lost life years depending on demographic assumptions and the corresponding social costs at 430.......4 M€, 317.5 M€, and 261.6 M€ through the modeled years 2005–2050. Conclusion. The modeled health impact of air pollution differed widely with the demographic assumptions, and thus demographics and assumptions on demographics played a key role in making health impact assessments on air pollution....

  1. Structural stability of nonlinear population dynamics (United States)

    Cenci, Simone; Saavedra, Serguei


    In population dynamics, the concept of structural stability has been used to quantify the tolerance of a system to environmental perturbations. Yet, measuring the structural stability of nonlinear dynamical systems remains a challenging task. Focusing on the classic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, because of the linearity of the functional response, it has been possible to measure the conditions compatible with a structurally stable system. However, the functional response of biological communities is not always well approximated by deterministic linear functions. Thus, it is unclear the extent to which this linear approach can be generalized to other population dynamics models. Here, we show that the same approach used to investigate the classic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, which is called the structural approach, can be applied to a much larger class of nonlinear models. This class covers a large number of nonlinear functional responses that have been intensively investigated both theoretically and experimentally. We also investigate the applicability of the structural approach to stochastic dynamical systems and we provide a measure of structural stability for finite populations. Overall, we show that the structural approach can provide reliable and tractable information about the qualitative behavior of many nonlinear dynamical systems.

  2. Desiccation and Mortality Dynamics in Seedlings of Different European Beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) Populations under Extreme Drought Conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bolte, Andreas; Czajkowski, Tomasz; Cocozza, Claudia


    beech to climate change in its native range. In a common garden experiment with one-year-old seedlings originating from central and marginal origins in six European countries (Denmark, Germany, France, Romania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Spain), we applied extreme drought stress and observed desiccation...... and mortality processes among the different populations and related them to plant water status (predawn water potential, 9PD) and soil hydraulic traits. For the lethal drought assessment, we used a critical threshold of soil water availability that is reached when 50% mortality in seedling populations occurs...

  3. Population dynamical responses to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forchhammer, Mads; Schmidt, Niels Martin; Høye, Toke Thomas


    , the effects of climate change may potentially extend through any of these interactions. In this chapter, we focus on the extent to which evolutionarily distinct species at different trophic levels respond to similar changes in climate. By using a broad spectrum of statistically and ecologically founded...... and migrating species, respectively. The dynamics of all four resident species were significantly affected by variations in snow-cover and explained up to 65% of their inter-annual dynamics. The three predators differed in their numerical response to changes in prey densities. Whereas the population dynamics...... a bewildering number of interactions. For example, individuals within a population may compete for space and other resources and, being embedded in an ecosystem, individuals in any population may also interact with individuals of competing species as well as those from adjacent trophic levels. In principal...

  4. Harvest and dynamics of duck populations (United States)

    Sedinger, James S.; Herzog, Mark P.


    The role of harvest in the dynamics of waterfowl populations continues to be debated among scientists and managers. Our perception is that interested members of the public and some managers believe that harvest influences North American duck populations based on calls for more conservative harvest regulations. A recent review of harvest and population dynamics of North American mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) populations (Pöysä et al. 2004) reached similar conclusions. Because of the importance of this issue, we reviewed the evidence for an impact of harvest on duck populations. Our understanding of the effects of harvest is limited because harvest effects are typically confounded with those of population density; regulations are typically most liberal when populations are greatest. This problem also exists in the current Adaptive Harvest Management Program (Conn and Kendall 2004). Consequently, even where harvest appears additive to other mortality, this may be an artifact of ignoring effects of population density. Overall, we found no compelling evidence for strong additive effects of harvest on survival in duck populations that could not be explained by other factors.

  5. Rates, intrinsic linkages, and multistate population dynamics. (United States)

    Schoen, Robert


    Demographic analyses of multistate populations are commonplace, as are situations where population stocks are known but population flows are not. Still, demographic models for multistate populations with changing rates remain at an early stage of development, limiting dynamic analyses and analytical projections. Here, a new approach, the Intrinsic Linkage-Rate Ratio (IL-RR) model, is presented and explored. The key IL parameter, w , is a simple weight for projecting populations. Using the ultimate state composition implied by the prevailing rates, the IL-RR model provides new relationships that connect multistate populations over time and allow analytical population projections. Parameter w reflects population metabolism and scales the level of the transfer rates. Compositional change is driven by the sequence of implicit stable population compositions. The IL-RR approach also provides a new method for estimating transfer rates within an interval from population numbers at the beginning and end of the interval. The new relationships developed advance the ability of demographers to model multistate populations with changing rates and to relate population stocks and flows.

  6. Conspecific brood parasitism and population dynamics. (United States)

    de Valpine, Perry; Eadie, John M


    Conspecific brood parasitism (CBP), defined as parasitic laying of eggs in a conspecific nest without providing parental care, occurs in insects, fishes, amphibians, and many birds. Numerous factors have been proposed to influence the evolution of CBP, including nest site limitation; effects of brood size, laying order, or parasitic status on offspring survival; randomness of parasitic egg distribution; adult life-history trade-offs; and variation in parental female quality or risk of nest predation. However, few theoretical studies consider multiple possible types of parasitism or the interplay between evolution of parasitism and population dynamics. We review existing theory of CBP and develop a synthetic modeling approach to ask how best-of-a-bad job parasitism, separate-strategies parasitism (in which females either nest or parasitize), and joint-strategies parasitism (in which females can both nest and parasitize) differ in their evolutionary conditions and impacts on population dynamics using an adaptive dynamics framework including multivariate traits. CBP can either stabilize or destabilize population dynamics in different scenarios, and the role of comparable parameters on evolutionarily stable strategy parasitism rate, equilibrium population size, and population stability can differ for the different modes of parasitism.

  7. Connecting micro dynamics and population distributions in system dynamics models. (United States)

    Fallah-Fini, Saeideh; Rahmandad, Hazhir; Chen, Hsin-Jen; Xue, Hong; Wang, Youfa


    Researchers use system dynamics models to capture the mean behavior of groups of indistinguishable population elements (e.g., people) aggregated in stock variables. Yet, many modeling problems require capturing the heterogeneity across elements with respect to some attribute(s) (e.g., body weight). This paper presents a new method to connect the micro-level dynamics associated with elements in a population with the macro-level population distribution along an attribute of interest without the need to explicitly model every element. We apply the proposed method to model the distribution of Body Mass Index and its changes over time in a sample population of American women obtained from the U.S. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Comparing the results with those obtained from an individual-based model that captures the same phenomena shows that our proposed method delivers accurate results with less computation than the individual-based model.

  8. Connecting micro dynamics and population distributions in system dynamics models (United States)

    Rahmandad, Hazhir; Chen, Hsin-Jen; Xue, Hong; Wang, Youfa


    Researchers use system dynamics models to capture the mean behavior of groups of indistinguishable population elements (e.g., people) aggregated in stock variables. Yet, many modeling problems require capturing the heterogeneity across elements with respect to some attribute(s) (e.g., body weight). This paper presents a new method to connect the micro-level dynamics associated with elements in a population with the macro-level population distribution along an attribute of interest without the need to explicitly model every element. We apply the proposed method to model the distribution of Body Mass Index and its changes over time in a sample population of American women obtained from the U.S. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Comparing the results with those obtained from an individual-based model that captures the same phenomena shows that our proposed method delivers accurate results with less computation than the individual-based model. PMID:25620842

  9. Random population model to explain the recombination dynamics in single InAs/GaAs quantum dots under selective optical pumping

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gomis-Bresco, Jordi; Munoz-Matutano, Guillermo; Martinez-Pastor, Juan [Institut de Ciencies dels Materials de la Universitat de Valencia, Universitat de Valencia, Valencia (Spain); Alen, Benito [IMM, Instituto de Microelectronica de Madrid (CNM, CSIC), Isaac Newton 8, 28760 Tres Cantos, Madrid (Spain); Seravalli, Luca; Frigeri, Paola; Trevisi, Giovanna; Franchi, Secondo, E-mail: [CNR-IMEM Institute, Parco delle Scienze 37a, I-43100 Parma (Italy)


    We model the time-resolved and time-integrated photoluminescence of a single InAs/GaAs quantum dot (QD) using a random population description. We reproduce the joint power dependence of the single QD exciton complexes (neutral exciton, neutral biexciton and charged trions). We use the model to investigate the selective optical pumping phenomenon, a predominance of the negative trion observed when the optical excitation is resonant to a non-intentional impurity level. Our experiments and simulations determine that the negative charge confined in the QD after exciting resonance to the impurity level escapes in 10 ns.

  10. Strength of concrete structures under dynamic loading (United States)

    Kumpyak, O. G.; Galyautdinov, Z. R.; Kokorin, D. N.


    The use of elastic supports is one the efficient methods of decreasing the dynamic loading. The paper describes the influence of elastic supports on the stress-strain state of steel concrete structures exposed to one-time dynamic loading resulting in failure. Oblique bending beams on elastic supports and their elastic, elastoplastic, and elastoplastic consolidation behavior are considered in this paper. For numerical calculations the developed computer program is used based on the finite element method. Research findings prove high efficiency of elastic supports under dynamic loading conditions. The most effective behavior of elastic supports is demonstrated at the elastoplastic stage. A good agreement is observed between the theoretical and experimental results.

  11. Dynamics of genome rearrangement in bacterial populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aaron E Darling


    represent the first characterization of genome arrangement evolution in a bacterial population evolving outside laboratory conditions. Insight into the process of genomic rearrangement may further the understanding of pathogen population dynamics and selection on the architecture of circular bacterial chromosomes.

  12. Population dynamics and distribution of hydrocarbon utilizing ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Laboratory studies were carried out to assess the bacterial population dynamics and distribution in composite soil samples collected from five (5) different automobile workshops at various locations (Ikpa road, Nwaniba road, Udi street, Idakokpo lane and Mechanic village) within Uyo metropolis. The hydrocarbon utilizing ...


    African Journals Online (AJOL)


    ABSTRACT. The genus Pseudo-nitzschia is a chain-forming diatom comprising about 30 species some of which are known to produce domoic acid (DA) that causes amnesic shellfish poisoning (ASP). The current study aimed at assessing the population dynamics of Pseudo-nitzschia in the near shore waters of Dar es ...

  14. Population dynamics of Pseudo-nitzschia species ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The genus Pseudo-nitzschia is a chain-forming diatom comprising about 30 species some of which are known to produce domoic acid (DA) that causes amnesic shellfish poisoning (ASP). The current study aimed at assessing the population dynamics of Pseudo-nitzschia in the near shore waters of Dar es Salaam. Samples ...

  15. Population dynamics of Prostephanus truncatus (Horn) and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The effects of three maize varieties and two storage seasons on the population dynamics of Prostephanus truncates (Horn) and Sitophilus zeamais Motschulsky were observed in the traditional `Ewe' barn in the field. Two local varieties, Dzolokpuita and Abutia and an improved variety, Abeleehi, were stored with the husk on ...


    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The population dynamics of flatfish Solea bleekeri and Pseudorhombus arsius within the intertidal area of Inhaca Island, Moçambique, was investigated using bottom trawl data collected during summer (December 1996–March 1997) and winter (June 1997–August 1997). The endemic S. bleekeri is a small, relatively ...

  17. The population dynamics of the Prorocentraceae, Gonyaulacaceae ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    An investigation into the dynamics of Protozoan populations in Ologe lagoon was carried out for a period of 24 months. It covered identification, diversity and elucidating the influence of some physical and chemical parameters on temporal abundance and spatial distribution of the Protozoa. Four villages around the lagoon ...

  18. Population dynamics of metastable growth-rate phenotypes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lindsay S Moore

    Full Text Available Neo-Darwinian evolution has presented a paradigm for population dynamics built on random mutations and selection with a clear separation of time-scales between single-cell mutation rates and the rate of reproduction. Laboratory experiments on evolving populations until now have concentrated on the fixation of beneficial mutations. Following the Darwinian paradigm, these experiments probed populations at low temporal resolution dictated by the rate of rare mutations, ignoring the intermediate evolving phenotypes. Selection however, works on phenotypes rather than genotypes. Research in recent years has uncovered the complexity of genotype-to-phenotype transformation and a wealth of intracellular processes including epigenetic inheritance, which operate on a wide range of time-scales. Here, by studying the adaptation dynamics of genetically rewired yeast cells, we show a novel type of population dynamics in which the intracellular processes intervene in shaping the population structure. Under constant environmental conditions, we measure a wide distribution of growth rates that coexist in the population for very long durations (>100 generations. Remarkably, the fastest growing cells do not take over the population on the time-scale dictated by the width of the growth-rate distributions and simple selection. Additionally, we measure significant fluctuations in the population distribution of various phenotypes: the fraction of exponentially-growing cells, the distributions of single-cell growth-rates and protein content. The observed fluctuations relax on time-scales of many generations and thus do not reflect noisy processes. Rather, our data show that the phenotypic state of the cells, including the growth-rate, for large populations in a constant environment is metastable and varies on time-scales that reflect the importance of long-term intracellular processes in shaping the population structure. This lack of time-scale separation between the

  19. Optimisation of single-phase dry-thermophilic anaerobic digestion under high organic loading rates of industrial municipal solid waste: population dynamics. (United States)

    Zahedi, S; Sales, D; Romero, L I; Solera, R


    Different high feed organic loading rates (OLRs) (from 5.7 g to 46.0 g TVS/l/d) or hydraulic retention times (HRTs) (from 15 d to 2 d) in single-phase dry-thermophilic anaerobic digestion (AD) of organic fraction municipal solid waste (OFMSW) were investigated. The specific gas production (SGP) values (0.25-0.53 m(3)/kg TVS) and the percentages of Eubacteria, Archaea, H2-utilising methanogens (HUMs) and acetate-utilising methanogens (AUMs) were stable within the ranges 80.2-91.1%, 12.4-18.5%, 4.4-9.8% and 5.5-10.9%, respectively. A HUM/AUM ratio greater than 0.7 seems to be necessary to maintain very low partial pressures of H2 required for dry AD process. Increasing OLR resulted in an increase in all the populations, except for propionate-utilising acetogens (PUAs). Optimal conditions were obtained at 3d HRT (OLR=30.7 g TVS/l/d), which is lower than the doubling time of acetogens and methanogens. The methane production (MP) was clearly higher than those reported in AD of OFMSW. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Co-infection alters population dynamics of infectious disease (United States)

    Susi, Hanna; Barrès, Benoit; Vale, Pedro F.; Laine, Anna-Liisa


    Co-infections by multiple pathogen strains are common in the wild. Theory predicts co-infections to have major consequences for both within- and between-host disease dynamics, but data are currently scarce. Here, using common garden populations of Plantago lanceolata infected by two strains of the pathogen Podosphaera plantaginis, either singly or under co-infection, we find the highest disease prevalence in co-infected treatments both at the host genotype and population levels. A spore-trapping experiment demonstrates that co-infected hosts shed more transmission propagules than singly infected hosts, thereby explaining the observed change in epidemiological dynamics. Our experimental findings are confirmed in natural pathogen populations—more devastating epidemics were measured in populations with higher levels of co-infection. Jointly, our results confirm the predictions made by theoretical and experimental studies for the potential of co-infection to alter disease dynamics across a large host–pathogen metapopulation. PMID:25569306

  1. Rethinking the logistic approach for population dynamics of mutualistic interactions. (United States)

    García-Algarra, Javier; Galeano, Javier; Pastor, Juan Manuel; Iriondo, José María; Ramasco, José J


    Mutualistic communities have an internal structure that makes them resilient to external perturbations. Late research has focused on their stability and the topology of the relations between the different organisms to explain the reasons of the system robustness. Much less attention has been invested in analyzing the systems dynamics. The main population models in use are modifications of the r-K formulation of logistic equation with additional terms to account for the benefits produced by the interspecific interactions. These models have shortcomings as the so-called r-K formulation diverges under some conditions. In this work, we introduce a model for population dynamics under mutualism that preserves the original logistic formulation. It is mathematically simpler than the widely used type II models, although it shows similar complexity in terms of fixed points and stability of the dynamics. We perform an analytical stability analysis and numerical simulations to study the model behavior in general interaction scenarios including tests of the resilience of its dynamics under external perturbations. Despite its simplicity, our results indicate that the model dynamics shows an important richness that can be used to gain further insights in the dynamics of mutualistic communities. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Food-web dynamics under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, L.; Takahashi, M.; Hartvig, Martin


    Climate change affects ecological communities through its impact on the physiological performance of individuals. However, the population dynamic of species well inside their thermal niche is also determined by competitors, prey and predators, in addition to being influenced by temperature changes....... We use a trait-based food-web model to examine how the interplay between the direct physiological effects from temperature and the indirect effects due to changing interactions between populations shapes the ecological consequences of climate change for populations and for entire communities. Our...... climatically well-adapted species may be brought to extinction by the changed food-web topology. Our results highlight that the impact of climate change on specific populations is largely unpredictable, and apparently well-adapted species may be severely impacted...

  3. Food-web dynamics under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, L.; Takahashi, M.; Hartvig, Martin


    . We use a trait-based food-web model to examine how the interplay between the direct physiological effects from temperature and the indirect effects due to changing interactions between populations shapes the ecological consequences of climate change for populations and for entire communities. Our......Climate change affects ecological communities through its impact on the physiological performance of individuals. However, the population dynamic of species well inside their thermal niche is also determined by competitors, prey and predators, in addition to being influenced by temperature changes...... climatically well-adapted species may be brought to extinction by the changed food-web topology. Our results highlight that the impact of climate change on specific populations is largely unpredictable, and apparently well-adapted species may be severely impacted...

  4. Strongly Deterministic Population Dynamics in Closed Microbial Communities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zak Frentz


    Full Text Available Biological systems are influenced by random processes at all scales, including molecular, demographic, and behavioral fluctuations, as well as by their interactions with a fluctuating environment. We previously established microbial closed ecosystems (CES as model systems for studying the role of random events and the emergent statistical laws governing population dynamics. Here, we present long-term measurements of population dynamics using replicate digital holographic microscopes that maintain CES under precisely controlled external conditions while automatically measuring abundances of three microbial species via single-cell imaging. With this system, we measure spatiotemporal population dynamics in more than 60 replicate CES over periods of months. In contrast to previous studies, we observe strongly deterministic population dynamics in replicate systems. Furthermore, we show that previously discovered statistical structure in abundance fluctuations across replicate CES is driven by variation in external conditions, such as illumination. In particular, we confirm the existence of stable ecomodes governing the correlations in population abundances of three species. The observation of strongly deterministic dynamics, together with stable structure of correlations in response to external perturbations, points towards a possibility of simple macroscopic laws governing microbial systems despite numerous stochastic events present on microscopic levels.

  5. Optimal Portfolios Under Dynamic Shortfall Constraints | Akume ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    industry standard with regulatory authorities enforcing its use in risk measurement and management. Despite its widespread acceptance, VaR is not coherent. Tail Conditional Expectation (TCE), on the other hand, for an underlying continuous distribution, is a coherent risk measures. Our focus in this paper is the dynamic ...

  6. Optimal Portfolios Under Dynamic Shortfall Constraints

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    industry standard with regulatory authorities enforcing its use in risk measure- ment and management. Despite its widespread acceptance, VaR is not coherent. Tail Conditional Expectation (TCE), on the other hand, for an underlying con- tinuous distribution, is a coherent risk measures. Our focus in this paper is the dynamic ...

  7. Aspiration dynamics of multi-player games in finite populations (United States)

    Du, Jinming; Wu, Bin; Altrock, Philipp M.; Wang, Long


    On studying strategy update rules in the framework of evolutionary game theory, one can differentiate between imitation processes and aspiration-driven dynamics. In the former case, individuals imitate the strategy of a more successful peer. In the latter case, individuals adjust their strategies based on a comparison of their pay-offs from the evolutionary game to a value they aspire, called the level of aspiration. Unlike imitation processes of pairwise comparison, aspiration-driven updates do not require additional information about the strategic environment and can thus be interpreted as being more spontaneous. Recent work has mainly focused on understanding how aspiration dynamics alter the evolutionary outcome in structured populations. However, the baseline case for understanding strategy selection is the well-mixed population case, which is still lacking sufficient understanding. We explore how aspiration-driven strategy-update dynamics under imperfect rationality influence the average abundance of a strategy in multi-player evolutionary games with two strategies. We analytically derive a condition under which a strategy is more abundant than the other in the weak selection limiting case. This approach has a long-standing history in evolutionary games and is mostly applied for its mathematical approachability. Hence, we also explore strong selection numerically, which shows that our weak selection condition is a robust predictor of the average abundance of a strategy. The condition turns out to differ from that of a wide class of imitation dynamics, as long as the game is not dyadic. Therefore, a strategy favoured under imitation dynamics can be disfavoured under aspiration dynamics. This does not require any population structure, and thus highlights the intrinsic difference between imitation and aspiration dynamics. PMID:24598208

  8. The failure rate dynamics in heterogeneous populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cha, Ji Hwan; Finkelstein, Maxim


    Most populations encountered in real world are heterogeneous. In reliability applications, the mixture (observed) failure rate, obviously, can be considered as a measure of ‘average’ quality in these populations. However, in addition to this average measure, some variability characteristics for failure rates can be very helpful in describing the time-dependent changes in quality of heterogeneous populations. In this paper, we discuss variance and the coefficient of variation of the corresponding random failure rate as variability measures for items in heterogeneous populations. Furthermore, there is often a risk that items of poor quality are selected for important missions. Therefore, along with the ‘average quality’ of a population, more ‘conservative’ quality measures should be also defined and studied. For this purpose, we propose the percentile and the tail-mixture of the failure rates as the corresponding conservative measures. Some illustrative examples are given. -- Highlights: ► This paper provides the insight on the variability measures in heterogeneous populations. ► The conservative quality measures in heterogeneous populations are defined. ► The utility of these measures is illustrated by meaningful examples. ► This paper provides a better understanding of the dynamics in heterogeneous populations

  9. A general modeling framework for describing spatially structured population dynamics (United States)

    Sample, Christine; Fryxell, John; Bieri, Joanna; Federico, Paula; Earl, Julia; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Mattsson, Brady; Flockhart, Tyler; Nicol, Sam; Diffendorfer, James E.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Erickson, Richard A.; Norris, D. Ryan


    Variation in movement across time and space fundamentally shapes the abundance and distribution of populations. Although a variety of approaches model structured population dynamics, they are limited to specific types of spatially structured populations and lack a unifying framework. Here, we propose a unified network-based framework sufficiently novel in its flexibility to capture a wide variety of spatiotemporal processes including metapopulations and a range of migratory patterns. It can accommodate different kinds of age structures, forms of population growth, dispersal, nomadism and migration, and alternative life-history strategies. Our objective was to link three general elements common to all spatially structured populations (space, time and movement) under a single mathematical framework. To do this, we adopt a network modeling approach. The spatial structure of a population is represented by a weighted and directed network. Each node and each edge has a set of attributes which vary through time. The dynamics of our network-based population is modeled with discrete time steps. Using both theoretical and real-world examples, we show how common elements recur across species with disparate movement strategies and how they can be combined under a unified mathematical framework. We illustrate how metapopulations, various migratory patterns, and nomadism can be represented with this modeling approach. We also apply our network-based framework to four organisms spanning a wide range of life histories, movement patterns, and carrying capacities. General computer code to implement our framework is provided, which can be applied to almost any spatially structured population. This framework contributes to our theoretical understanding of population dynamics and has practical management applications, including understanding the impact of perturbations on population size, distribution, and movement patterns. By working within a common framework, there is less chance

  10. A general modeling framework for describing spatially structured population dynamics. (United States)

    Sample, Christine; Fryxell, John M; Bieri, Joanna A; Federico, Paula; Earl, Julia E; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Mattsson, Brady J; Flockhart, D T Tyler; Nicol, Sam; Diffendorfer, Jay E; Thogmartin, Wayne E; Erickson, Richard A; Norris, D Ryan


    Variation in movement across time and space fundamentally shapes the abundance and distribution of populations. Although a variety of approaches model structured population dynamics, they are limited to specific types of spatially structured populations and lack a unifying framework. Here, we propose a unified network-based framework sufficiently novel in its flexibility to capture a wide variety of spatiotemporal processes including metapopulations and a range of migratory patterns. It can accommodate different kinds of age structures, forms of population growth, dispersal, nomadism and migration, and alternative life-history strategies. Our objective was to link three general elements common to all spatially structured populations (space, time and movement) under a single mathematical framework. To do this, we adopt a network modeling approach. The spatial structure of a population is represented by a weighted and directed network. Each node and each edge has a set of attributes which vary through time. The dynamics of our network-based population is modeled with discrete time steps. Using both theoretical and real-world examples, we show how common elements recur across species with disparate movement strategies and how they can be combined under a unified mathematical framework. We illustrate how metapopulations, various migratory patterns, and nomadism can be represented with this modeling approach. We also apply our network-based framework to four organisms spanning a wide range of life histories, movement patterns, and carrying capacities. General computer code to implement our framework is provided, which can be applied to almost any spatially structured population. This framework contributes to our theoretical understanding of population dynamics and has practical management applications, including understanding the impact of perturbations on population size, distribution, and movement patterns. By working within a common framework, there is less chance

  11. Population dynamics with symmetric and asymmetric harvesting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Ali


    Here $\\lambda, a, b, c$ and $L$ are positive constants with $0population dynamics with logistic type growth and constant yield harvesting. Here $u$ is the population density, $\\frac{1}{\\lambda}$ is the diffusion coefficient and $c$ is the harvesting effort. In particular, model A corresponds to a symmetric harvesting case and model B to an asymmetric harvesting case. Our objective is to study the existence of positive solutions and also discuss the effects of harvesting. We will develop appropriate quadrature methods via which we will establish our results.

  12. Lattice dynamics of solid xenon under pressure. (United States)

    Dewhurst, J K; Ahuja, R; Li, S; Johansson, B


    We use density-functional perturbation theory to obtain the phonon spectrum of fcc xenon under pressure. Thermodynamic properties obtained within the quasiharmonic approximation are in fair to good agreement with experiment at zero pressure. The transition pressure from the fcc to hcp phase is predicted to occur at 5 GPa. The fcc structure is found to be dynamically stable up to a pressure of 100 GPa, beyond which the phonon modes at the X and L symmetry points soften. We attribute the observed sluggish kinetics of the fcc-hcp transition to the small energy difference between the phases as well as to the high dynamical stability of the fcc phase.

  13. Whitefly population dynamics in okra plantations


    Leite,Germano Leão Demolin; Picanço,Marcelo; Jham,Gulab Newandram; Moreira,Márcio Dionízio


    The control of whitefly Bemisia tabaci (Gennadius) biotype B (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae) on okra (Abelmoschus esculentus L.) consists primarily in the use of insecticides, due to the lack of information on other mortality factors. The objective of this study was to evaluate the spatial and temporal population dynamics of the whitefly B. tabaci biotype B on two successive A. esculentus var. "Santa Cruz" plantations. Leaf chemical composition, leaf nitrogen and potassium contents, trichome density...

  14. Gas Bubble Dynamics under Mechanical Vibrations (United States)

    Mohagheghian, Shahrouz; Elbing, Brian


    The scientific community has a limited understanding of the bubble dynamics under mechanical oscillations due to over simplification of Navier-Stockes equation by neglecting the shear stress tensor and not accounting for body forces when calculating the acoustic radiation force. The current work experimental investigates bubble dynamics under mechanical vibration and resulting acoustic field by measuring the bubble size and velocity using high-speed imaging. The experimental setup consists of a custom-designed shaker table, cast acrylic bubble column, compressed air injection manifold and an optical imaging system. The mechanical vibrations resulted in accelerations between 0.25 to 10 times gravitational acceleration corresponding to frequency and amplitude range of 8 - 22Hz and 1 - 10mm respectively. Throughout testing the void fraction was limited to definition of Bjerknes force in combination with Rayleigh-Plesset equation. Physical behavior of the system was capture and classified. Bubble size, velocity as well as size and spatial distribution will be presented.

  15. Galactic civilizations - Population dynamics and interstellar diffusion (United States)

    Newman, W. I.; Sagan, C.


    A model is developed of the interstellar diffusion of galactic civilizations which takes into account the population dynamics of such civilizations. The problem is formulated in terms of potential theory, with a family of nonlinear partial differential and difference equations specifying population growth and diffusion for an organism with advantageous genes that undergoes random dispersal while increasing in population locally, and a population at zero population growth. In the case of nonlinear diffusion with growth and saturation, it is found that the colonization wavefront from the nearest independently arisen galactic civilization can have reached the earth only if its lifetime exceeds 2.6 million years, or 20 million years if discretization can be neglected. For zero population growth, the corresponding lifetime is 13 billion years. It is concluded that the earth is uncolonized not because interstellar spacefaring civilizations are rare, but because there are too many worlds to be colonized in the plausible colonization lifetime of nearby civilizations, and that there exist no very old galactic civilizations with a consistent policy of the conquest of inhabited worlds.

  16. Critical dynamics in population vaccinating behavior. (United States)

    Pananos, A Demetri; Bury, Thomas M; Wang, Clara; Schonfeld, Justin; Mohanty, Sharada P; Nyhan, Brendan; Salathé, Marcel; Bauch, Chris T


    Vaccine refusal can lead to renewed outbreaks of previously eliminated diseases and even delay global eradication. Vaccinating decisions exemplify a complex, coupled system where vaccinating behavior and disease dynamics influence one another. Such systems often exhibit critical phenomena-special dynamics close to a tipping point leading to a new dynamical regime. For instance, critical slowing down (declining rate of recovery from small perturbations) may emerge as a tipping point is approached. Here, we collected and geocoded tweets about measles-mumps-rubella vaccine and classified their sentiment using machine-learning algorithms. We also extracted data on measles-related Google searches. We find critical slowing down in the data at the level of California and the United States in the years before and after the 2014-2015 Disneyland, California measles outbreak. Critical slowing down starts growing appreciably several years before the Disneyland outbreak as vaccine uptake declines and the population approaches the tipping point. However, due to the adaptive nature of coupled behavior-disease systems, the population responds to the outbreak by moving away from the tipping point, causing "critical speeding up" whereby resilience to perturbations increases. A mathematical model of measles transmission and vaccine sentiment predicts the same qualitative patterns in the neighborhood of a tipping point to greatly reduced vaccine uptake and large epidemics. These results support the hypothesis that population vaccinating behavior near the disease elimination threshold is a critical phenomenon. Developing new analytical tools to detect these patterns in digital social data might help us identify populations at heightened risk of widespread vaccine refusal. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

  17. Population dynamics of king eiders breeding in northern Alaska (United States)

    Bentzen, Rebecca L.; Powell, Abby N.


    The North American population of king eiders (Somateria spectabilis) has declined by more than 50% since the late 1970s for unknown reasons. King eiders spend most of their lives in remote areas, forcing managers to make regulatory and conservation decisions based on very little information. We incorporated available published estimates of vital rates with new estimates to build a female, stage-based matrix population model for king eiders and examine the processes underlying population dynamics of king eiders breeding at 2 sites, Teshekpuk and Kuparuk, on the coastal plain of northern Alaska and wintering around the Bering Sea (2001–2010). We predicted a decreasing population (λ = 0.981, 95% CI: 0.978–0.985), and that population growth was most sensitive to changes in adult female survival (sensitivity = 0.92). Low duckling survival may be a bottleneck to productivity (variation in ducking survival accounted for 66% of retrospective variation in λ). Adult survival was high (0.94) and invariant (σ = 0.0002, 95% CI: 0.0000–0.0007); however, catastrophic events could have a major impact and we need to consider how to mitigate and manage threats to adult survival. A hypothetical oil spill affecting breeding females in a primary spring staging area resulted in a severe population decline; although, transient population dynamics were relatively stable. However, if no catastrophic events occur, the more variable reproductive parameters (duckling and nest survival) may be more responsive to management actions.

  18. Central-marginal population dynamics in species invasions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qinfeng eGuo


    Full Text Available The species’ range limits and associated central-marginal (C-M; i.e., from species range center to margin population dynamics continue to draw increasing attention because of their importance for current emerging issues such as biotic invasions and epidemic diseases under global change. Previous studies have mainly focused on species borders and C-M process in natural settings for native species. More recently, growing efforts are devoted to examine the C-M patterns and process for invasive species partly due to their relatively short history, highly dynamic populations, and management implications. Here I examine recent findings and information gaps related to (1 the C-M population dynamics linked to species invasions, and (2 the possible effects of climate change and land use on the C-M patterns and processes. Unlike most native species that are relatively stable (some even having contracting populations or ranges, many invasive species are still spreading fast and form new distribution or abundance centers. Because of the strong nonlinearity of population demographic or vital rates (i.e. birth, death, immigration and emigration across the C-M gradients and the increased complexity of species ranges due to habitat fragmentation, multiple introductions, range-wide C-M comparisons and simulation involving multiple vital rates are needed in the future.

  19. Population dynamical responses to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forchhammer, Mads; Schmidt, Niels Martin; Høye, Toke Thomas


    , the effects of climate change may potentially extend through any of these interactions. In this chapter, we focus on the extent to which evolutionarily distinct species at different trophic levels respond to similar changes in climate. By using a broad spectrum of statistically and ecologically founded......, is related to differences in the compositions of predator and prey species. The significant inter-trophic interactions are centred on the collared lemming as a result of which there is a significant potential for indirect climate effects mediated across the established consumer-resource is well established that climatic as well as biological factors, in concert, form the mechanistic basis for our understanding of how populations develop over time and across space. Although this seemingly suggests simplicity, the climate-biology dichotomy of population dynamics embraces...

  20. Effects of constant immigration on the dynamics and persistence of stable and unstable Drosophila populations (United States)

    Dey, Snigdhadip; Joshi, Amitabh


    Constant immigration can stabilize population size fluctuations but its effects on extinction remain unexplored. We show that constant immigration significantly reduced extinction in fruitfly populations with relatively stable or unstable dynamics. In unstable populations with oscillations of amplitude around 1.5 times the mean population size, persistence and constancy were unrelated. Low immigration enhanced persistence without affecting constancy whereas high immigration increased constancy without enhancing persistence. In relatively stable populations with erratic fluctuations of amplitude close to the mean population size, both low and high immigration enhanced persistence. In these populations, the amplitude of fluctuations relative to mean population size went down due to immigration, and their dynamics were altered to low-period cycles. The effects of immigration on the population size distribution and intrinsic dynamics of stable versus unstable populations differed considerably, suggesting that the mechanisms by which immigration reduced extinction risk depended on underlying dynamics in complex ways. PMID:23470546

  1. Complex networks under dynamic repair model (United States)

    Chaoqi, Fu; Ying, Wang; Kun, Zhao; Yangjun, Gao


    Invulnerability is not the only factor of importance when considering complex networks' security. It is also critical to have an effective and reasonable repair strategy. Existing research on network repair is confined to the static model. The dynamic model makes better use of the redundant capacity of repaired nodes and repairs the damaged network more efficiently than the static model; however, the dynamic repair model is complex and polytropic. In this paper, we construct a dynamic repair model and systematically describe the energy-transfer relationships between nodes in the repair process of the failure network. Nodes are divided into three types, corresponding to three structures. We find that the strong coupling structure is responsible for secondary failure of the repaired nodes and propose an algorithm that can select the most suitable targets (nodes or links) to repair the failure network with minimal cost. Two types of repair strategies are identified, with different effects under the two energy-transfer rules. The research results enable a more flexible approach to network repair.

  2. Fundamental Dynamical Modes Underlying Human Brain Synchronization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catalina Alvarado-Rojas


    Full Text Available Little is known about the long-term dynamics of widely interacting cortical and subcortical networks during the wake-sleep cycle. Using large-scale intracranial recordings of epileptic patients during seizure-free periods, we investigated local- and long-range synchronization between multiple brain regions over several days. For such high-dimensional data, summary information is required for understanding and modelling the underlying dynamics. Here, we suggest that a compact yet useful representation is given by a state space based on the first principal components. Using this representation, we report, with a remarkable similarity across the patients with different locations of electrode placement, that the seemingly complex patterns of brain synchrony during the wake-sleep cycle can be represented by a small number of characteristic dynamic modes. In this space, transitions between behavioral states occur through specific trajectories from one mode to another. These findings suggest that, at a coarse level of temporal resolution, the different brain states are correlated with several dominant synchrony patterns which are successively activated across wake-sleep states.

  3. Dynamics of N-person snowdrift games in structured populations. (United States)

    Santos, Marta D; Pinheiro, Flávio L; Santos, Francisco C; Pacheco, Jorge M


    In many real-life situations, the completion of a task by a group toward achieving a common goal requires the cooperation of at least some of its members, who share the required workload. Such cases are conveniently modeled by the N-person snowdrift game, an example of a Public Goods Game. Here we study how an underlying network of contacts affects the evolutionary dynamics of collective action modeled in terms of such a Public Goods Game. We analyze the impact of different types of networks in the global, population-wide dynamics of cooperators and defectors. We show that homogeneous social structures enhance the chances of coordinating toward stable levels of cooperation, while heterogeneous network structures create multiple internal equilibria, departing significantly from the reference scenario of a well-mixed, structureless population. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Dynamics of inhomogeneous populations and global demography models


    Karev, Georgy P.


    The dynamic theory of inhomogeneous populations developed during the last decade predicts several essential new dynamic regimes applicable even to the well-known, simple population models. We show that, in an inhomogeneous population with a distributed reproduction coefficient, the entire initial distribution of the coefficient should be used to investigate real population dynamics. In the general case, neither the average rate of growth nor the variance or any finite number of moments of the...

  5. Neural dynamics underlying emotional transmissions between individuals. (United States)

    Golland, Yulia; Levit-Binnun, Nava; Hendler, Talma; Lerner, Yulia


    Emotional experiences are frequently shaped by the emotional responses of co-present others. Research has shown that people constantly monitor and adapt to the incoming social-emotional signals, even without face-to-face interaction. And yet, the neural processes underlying such emotional transmissions have not been directly studied. Here, we investigated how the human brain processes emotional cues which arrive from another, co-attending individual. We presented continuous emotional feedback to participants who viewed a movie in the scanner. Participants in the social group (but not in the control group) believed that the feedback was coming from another person who was co-viewing the same movie. We found that social-emotional feedback significantly affected the neural dynamics both in the core affect and in the medial pre-frontal regions. Specifically, the response time-courses in those regions exhibited increased similarity across recipients and increased neural alignment with the timeline of the feedback in the social compared with control group. Taken in conjunction with previous research, this study suggests that emotional cues from others shape the neural dynamics across the whole neural continuum of emotional processing in the brain. Moreover, it demonstrates that interpersonal neural alignment can serve as a neural mechanism through which affective information is conveyed between individuals. © The Author (2017). Published by Oxford University Press.

  6. Reliability of dynamic systems under limited information.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Field, Richard V., Jr. (.,; .); Grigoriu, Mircea


    A method is developed for reliability analysis of dynamic systems under limited information. The available information includes one or more samples of the system output; any known information on features of the output can be used if available. The method is based on the theory of non-Gaussian translation processes and is shown to be particularly suitable for problems of practical interest. For illustration, we apply the proposed method to a series of simple example problems and compare with results given by traditional statistical estimators in order to establish the accuracy of the method. It is demonstrated that the method delivers accurate results for the case of linear and nonlinear dynamic systems, and can be applied to analyze experimental data and/or mathematical model outputs. Two complex applications of direct interest to Sandia are also considered. First, we apply the proposed method to assess design reliability of a MEMS inertial switch. Second, we consider re-entry body (RB) component vibration response during normal re-entry, where the objective is to estimate the time-dependent probability of component failure. This last application is directly relevant to re-entry random vibration analysis at Sandia, and may provide insights on test-based and/or model-based qualification of weapon components for random vibration environments.

  7. Evolutionary dynamics of dengue virus populations within the mosquito vector. (United States)

    Lambrechts, Louis; Lequime, Sebastian


    To date, dengue virus evolution has mainly been addressed by studies conducted at the between-host level. Like other pathogens with high mutation rate and rapid replication, dengue viruses also evolve during the course of an infection. Over the last few years, the advent of deep-sequencing technologies has facilitated studies of dengue virus populations at the within-host level. Here, we review recent advances on the evolutionary dynamics of dengue virus populations within their mosquito vector. We discuss how identifying the evolutionary forces acting on dengue virus populations within the mosquito can shed light on the processes underlying vector-virus interactions and the evolution of epidemiologically relevant traits. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Lineage grammars: describing, simulating and analyzing population dynamics. (United States)

    Spiro, Adam; Cardelli, Luca; Shapiro, Ehud


    Precise description of the dynamics of biological processes would enable the mathematical analysis and computational simulation of complex biological phenomena. Languages such as Chemical Reaction Networks and Process Algebras cater for the detailed description of interactions among individuals and for the simulation and analysis of ensuing behaviors of populations. However, often knowledge of such interactions is lacking or not available. Yet complete oblivion to the environment would make the description of any biological process vacuous. Here we present a language for describing population dynamics that abstracts away detailed interaction among individuals, yet captures in broad terms the effect of the changing environment, based on environment-dependent Stochastic Tree Grammars (eSTG). It is comprised of a set of stochastic tree grammar transition rules, which are context-free and as such abstract away specific interactions among individuals. Transition rule probabilities and rates, however, can depend on global parameters such as population size, generation count, and elapsed time. We show that eSTGs conveniently describe population dynamics at multiple levels including cellular dynamics, tissue development and niches of organisms. Notably, we show the utilization of eSTG for cases in which the dynamics is regulated by environmental factors, which affect the fate and rate of decisions of the different species. eSTGs are lineage grammars, in the sense that execution of an eSTG program generates the corresponding lineage trees, which can be used to analyze the evolutionary and developmental history of the biological system under investigation. These lineage trees contain a representation of the entire events history of the system, including the dynamics that led to the existing as well as to the extinct individuals. We conclude that our suggested formalism can be used to easily specify, simulate and analyze complex biological systems, and supports modular

  9. The stochastic network dynamics underlying perceptual discrimination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Genis Prat-Ortega


    Full Text Available The brain is able to interpret streams of high-dimensional ambiguous information and yield coherent percepts. The mechanisms governing sensory integration have been extensively characterized using time-varying visual stimuli (Britten et al. 1996; Roitman and Shadlen 2002, but some of the basic principles regarding the network dynamics underlying this process remain largely unknown. We captured the basic features of a neural integrator using three canonical one-dimensional models: (1 the Drift Diffusion Model (DDM, (2 the Perfect Integrator (PI which is a particular case of the DDM where the bounds are set to infinity and (3 the double-well potential (DW which captures the dynamics of the attractor networks (Wang 2002; Roxin and Ledberg 2008. Although these models has been widely studied (Bogacz et al. 2006; Roxin and Ledberg 2008; Gold and Shadlen 2002, it has been difficult to experimentally discriminate among them because most of the observables measured are only quantitatively different among these models (e.g. psychometric curves. Here we aim to find experimentally measurable quantities that can yield qualitatively different behaviors depending on the nature of the underlying network dynamics. We examined the categorization dynamics of these models in response to fluctuating stimuli of different duration (T. On each time step, stimuli are drawn from a Gaussian distribution N(μ, σ and the two stimulus categories are defined by μ > 0 and μ < 0. Psychometric curves can therefore be obtained by quantifying the probability of the integrator to yield one category versus μ . We find however that varying σ can reveal more clearly the differences among the different integrators. In the small σ regime, both the DW and the DDM perform transient integration and exhibit a decaying stimulus reverse correlation kernel revealing a primacy effect (Nienborg and Cumming 2009; Wimmer et al. 2015 . In the large σ regime, the integration in the DDM

  10. Population dynamics of species-rich ecosystems: the mixture of matrix population models approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortier, Frédéric; Rossi, Vivien; Guillot, Gilles


    Matrix population models are widely used to predict population dynamics, but when applied to species-rich ecosystems with many rare species, the small population sample sizes hinder a good fit of species-specific models. This issue can be overcome by assigning species to groups to increase the size...... species with similar population dynamics....

  11. [Nonlinear effects on population dynamics related to age structure and fishery impact]. (United States)

    Frisman, E Ia; Last, E V


    Population dynamics of commercial fish populations with an age structure was studied by the example of salmons. The relationship between the amount of catch on fishing efforts and total abundance of a stock fished is described by a nonlinear "trophic" function. Special attention is given to the analysis of population dynamics stability under conditions for maximum profit. Simulation results are compared to statistical data on the catch of Pacific salmon species in the Bering Sea.

  12. Aerobic storage under dynamic conditions in activated sludge processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Majone, M.; Dircks, K.


    In activated sludge processes, several plant configurations (like plug-flow configuration of the aeration tanks, systems with selectors, contact-stabilization processes or SBR processes) impose a concentration gradient of the carbon sources to the biomass. As a consequence, the biomass grows under...... mechanisms can also contribute to substrate removal, depending on the microbial composition and the previous "history" of the biomass. In this paper the type and the extent of this dynamic response is discussed by review of experimental studies on pure cultures, mixed cultures and activated sludges...... and with main reference to its relevance on population dynamics in the activated sludge. Possible conceptual approaches to storage modelling are also presented, including both structured and unstructured modelling. (C) 1999 IAWQ Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved....

  13. Population-based health funding under attack

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A 'static, outdated and in- flexible' population-based funding formula for public health is putting huge pres- sure on well-run and well- equipped hospitals in the Western Cape,. KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng as people from other provinces migrate there in their tens of thousands to seek a better life. The frustrated heads of ...

  14. [Analysis on age structure and dynamics of Kindonia uniflora populations]. (United States)

    Zhang, Wenhui; Li, Jingxia; Li, Hong; Liu, Xiangjun


    Kindonia uniflora is a perennial clone herbaceous plant, and also, a native endangered plant in China. This paper studied its age structure, life table and survivorship curve in different habitats in Taibai mountain area. The results indicated that the age structure and dynamics of K. uniflora populations in the Betula utilis forest at altitude 2500-2700 m, in the Abies fargesii forest at altitude 2700-2900 m, and in the Larix chinensis forest at altitude 2900-3100 m had the similar pattern and developing tendency. The number of younger ramets at 1-2 years old or older than 5 years was less, and the number of ramets at 3-5 years old was the highest in the age structures. The negative values of dx (dead number), qx (mortality rate) and Kx (Killing rate) in the life table showed the increasing rate of the population sizes during the age stage. The survivorship curve of K. uniflora populations in different habitats belonged to Deevey C after 3-5 years old. The mortality rate of populations during 5-10 years stage was higher, and was stable after 10 years old. As for the characters of asexual propagation and clone growth, the rhizomes of the populations were in humus of soil, and developed and expanded as guerilla line style. During growth season, only one leaf grew above ground at every inter-node, and the population growth and development were rarely influenced by external factors. The forest communities, such as Betula utilis, Abies fargesii and Larix chinensis forest, in which K. uniflora populations lived, were at middle or higher mountain, where there were rarely disturbance from human being. Therefore, the habitats for K. uniflora populations to live were relatively stable. As the altitude increased, the disturbances from human being became less, the density of K. uniflora populations increased, the life cycle expanded, the peak of population death delayed, and the population living strategy changed to adapt to the habitats. K. uniflora populations preferred to

  15. Periodic matrix models for seasonal dynamics of structured populations with application to a seabird population. (United States)

    Cushing, J M; Henson, Shandelle M


    For structured populations with an annual breeding season, life-stage interactions and behavioral tactics may occur on a faster time scale than that of population dynamics. Motivated by recent field studies of the effect of rising sea surface temperature (SST) on within-breeding-season behaviors in colonial seabirds, we formulate and analyze a general class of discrete-time matrix models designed to account for changes in behavioral tactics within the breeding season and their dynamic consequences at the population level across breeding seasons. As a specific example, we focus on egg cannibalism and the daily reproductive synchrony observed in seabirds. Using the model, we investigate circumstances under which these life history tactics can be beneficial or non-beneficial at the population level in light of the expected continued rise in SST. Using bifurcation theoretic techniques, we study the nature of non-extinction, seasonal cycles as a function of environmental resource availability as they are created upon destabilization of the extinction state. Of particular interest are backward bifurcations in that they typically create strong Allee effects in population models which, in turn, lead to the benefit of possible (initial condition dependent) survival in adverse environments. We find that positive density effects (component Allee effects) due to increased adult survival from cannibalism and the propensity of females to synchronize daily egg laying can produce a strong Allee effect due to a backward bifurcation.

  16. Identifying consumer-resource population dynamics using paleoecological data. (United States)

    Einarsson, Árni; Hauptfleisch, Ulf; Leavitt, Peter R; Ives, Anthony R


    Ecologists have long been fascinated by cyclic population fluctuations, because they suggest strong interactions between exploiter and victim species. Nonetheless, even for populations showing high-amplitude fluctuations, it is often hard to identify which species are the key drivers of the dynamics, because data are generally only available for a single species. Here, we use a paleoecological approach to investigate fluctuations in the midge population in Lake Mývatn, Iceland, which ranges over several orders of magnitude in irregular, multigeneration cycles. Previous circumstantial evidence points to consumer-resource interactions between midges and their primary food, diatoms, as the cause of these high-amplitude fluctuations. Using a pair of sediment cores from the lake, we reconstructed 26 years of dynamics of midges using egg remains and of algal groups using diagnostic pigments. We analyzed these data using statistical methods that account for both the autocorrelated nature of paleoecological data and measurement error caused by the mixing of sediment layers. The analyses revealed a signature of consumer-resource interactions in the fluctuations of midges and diatoms: diatom abundance (as inferred from biomarker pigment diatoxanthin) increased when midge abundance was low, and midge abundance (inferred from egg capsules) decreased when diatom abundance was low. Similar patterns were not found for pigments characterizing the other dominant primary producer group in the lake (cyanobacteria), subdominant algae (cryptophytes), or ubiquitous but chemically unstable biomarkers of total algal abundance (chlorophyll a); however, a significant but weaker pattern was found for the chemically stable indicator of total algal populations (β-carotene) to which diatoms are the dominant contributor. These analyses provide the first paleoecological evaluation of specific trophic interactions underlying high amplitude population fluctuations in lakes.

  17. Evolutionary dynamics with fluctuating population sizes and strong mutualism. (United States)

    Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David R


    Game theory ideas provide a useful framework for studying evolutionary dynamics in a well-mixed environment. This approach, however, typically enforces a strictly fixed overall population size, deemphasizing natural growth processes. We study a competitive Lotka-Volterra model, with number fluctuations, that accounts for natural population growth and encompasses interaction scenarios typical of evolutionary games. We show that, in an appropriate limit, the model describes standard evolutionary games with both genetic drift and overall population size fluctuations. However, there are also regimes where a varying population size can strongly influence the evolutionary dynamics. We focus on the strong mutualism scenario and demonstrate that standard evolutionary game theory fails to describe our simulation results. We then analytically and numerically determine fixation probabilities as well as mean fixation times using matched asymptotic expansions, taking into account the population size degree of freedom. These results elucidate the interplay between population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics in well-mixed systems.

  18. Evolutionary dynamics with fluctuating population sizes and strong mutualism (United States)

    Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David R.


    Game theory ideas provide a useful framework for studying evolutionary dynamics in a well-mixed environment. This approach, however, typically enforces a strictly fixed overall population size, deemphasizing natural growth processes. We study a competitive Lotka-Volterra model, with number fluctuations, that accounts for natural population growth and encompasses interaction scenarios typical of evolutionary games. We show that, in an appropriate limit, the model describes standard evolutionary games with both genetic drift and overall population size fluctuations. However, there are also regimes where a varying population size can strongly influence the evolutionary dynamics. We focus on the strong mutualism scenario and demonstrate that standard evolutionary game theory fails to describe our simulation results. We then analytically and numerically determine fixation probabilities as well as mean fixation times using matched asymptotic expansions, taking into account the population size degree of freedom. These results elucidate the interplay between population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics in well-mixed systems.

  19. Behavior of Brittle Materials Under Dynamic Loading

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Kanel, G


    Dynamic loading of brittle materials is related to many applications, including explosive excavation of rocks, design of ceramic armor, meteor impact on spacecraft windows, particle damage to turbine blades, etc...

  20. The population dynamical implications of male-biased parasitism in different mating systems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin R Miller


    Full Text Available Although there is growing evidence that males tend to suffer higher levels of parasitism than females, the implications of this for the population dynamics of the host population are not yet understood. Here we build on an established 'two-sex' model and investigate how increased susceptibility to infection in males affects the dynamics, under different mating systems. We investigate the effect of pathogenic disease at different case mortalities, under both monogamous and polygynous mating systems. If the case mortality is low, then male-biased parasitism appears similar to unbiased parasitism in terms of its effect on the population dynamics. At higher case mortalities, we identified significant differences between male-biased and unbiased parasitism. A host population may therefore be differentially affected by male-biased and unbiased parasitism. The dynamical outcome is likely to depend on a complex interaction between the host's mating system and demography, and the parasite virulence.

  1. Review Of the interplay between population dynamics and

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Review Of the interplay between population dynamics and malaria transmission in Ethiopia. Wakgari Deressa, Ahmed Ali, Yemane Berhane. Abstract. Background: The rapid growth of human population in malaria endemic areas has become a threat leading to the resurgence of the disease. Population growth and ...

  2. Leisure Today: Population Dynamics--The Changing Face of America. (United States)

    Dunn, Diana R., Ed.; And Others


    A collection of articles examines the changing character of the American population and the importance of planning new recreation and leisure services to meet changing population needs. Included are discussions on demography and population dynamics; the effects of immigration; changing work and life styles; and changes in family structure and…

  3. [The effect of the new technological revolution on population dynamics]. (United States)

    Wu, K


    The impact of modernization on population dynamics in China is examined. The author notes that the industrialization process involves the concentration of the population in urban areas and the mechanization of agriculture. The need to redistribute the urban population from major urban areas to smaller towns is noted.

  4. Population dynamics model for plasmid bearing and plasmid lacking ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Streptokinase production in bioreactor is well associated to cell population dynamics. It is an established fact that two types of cell populations are found to emerge from the initial pool of recombinant cell population. This phenomenon leads to an undesired loss in yield of the product. Primary metabolites, like acetic acid etc ...

  5. Modelling population dynamics model formulation, fitting and assessment using state-space methods

    CERN Document Server

    Newman, K B; Morgan, B J T; King, R; Borchers, D L; Cole, D J; Besbeas, P; Gimenez, O; Thomas, L


    This book gives a unifying framework for estimating the abundance of open populations: populations subject to births, deaths and movement, given imperfect measurements or samples of the populations.  The focus is primarily on populations of vertebrates for which dynamics are typically modelled within the framework of an annual cycle, and for which stochastic variability in the demographic processes is usually modest. Discrete-time models are developed in which animals can be assigned to discrete states such as age class, gender, maturity,  population (within a metapopulation), or species (for multi-species models). The book goes well beyond estimation of abundance, allowing inference on underlying population processes such as birth or recruitment, survival and movement. This requires the formulation and fitting of population dynamics models.  The resulting fitted models yield both estimates of abundance and estimates of parameters characterizing the underlying processes.  

  6. Dynamics of social balance under temporal interaction (United States)

    Nishi, Ryosuke; Masuda, Naoki


    Real social contacts are often intermittent such that a link between a pair of nodes in a social network is only temporarily used. The effects of such temporal networks on social dynamics have been investigated for several phenomenological models such as epidemic spreading, linear diffusion processes, and nonlinear oscillations. Here, we numerically investigate nonlinear social balance dynamics in such a situation. Social balance is a classical psychological theory, which dictates that a triad is balanced if the three agents are mutual friends or if the two of them are the friends of each other and hostile to the other agent. We show that the social balance dynamics is slowed down on the temporal complete graph as compared to the corresponding static complete graph.

  7. The model of fungal population dynamics affected by nystatin (United States)

    Voychuk, Sergei I.; Gromozova, Elena N.; Sadovskiy, Mikhail G.

    Fungal diseases are acute problems of the up-to-day medicine. Significant increase of resistance of microorganisms to the medically used antibiotics and a lack of new effective drugs follows in a growth of dosage of existing chemicals to solve the problem. Quite often such approach results in side effects on humans. Detailed study of fungi-antibiotic dynamics can identify new mechanisms and bring new ideas to overcome the microbial resistance with a lower dosage of antibiotics. In this study, the dynamics of the microbial population under antibiotic treatment was investigated. The effects of nystatin on the population of Saccharomyces cerevisiae yeasts were used as a model system. Nystatin effects were investigated both in liquid and solid media by viability tests. Dependence of nystatin action on osmotic gradient was evaluated in NaCl solutions. Influences of glucose and yeast extract were additionally analyzed. A "stepwise" pattern of the cell death caused by nystatin was the most intriguing. This pattern manifested in periodical changes of the stages of cell death against stages of resistance to the antibiotic. The mathematical model was proposed to describe cell-antibiotic interactions and nystatin viability effects in the liquid medium. The model implies that antibiotic ability to cause a cells death is significantly affected by the intracellular compounds, which came out of cells after their osmotic barriers were damaged

  8. Evolution of entanglement under echo dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prosen, Tomaz; Znidaric, Marko; Seligman, Thomas H.


    Echo dynamics and fidelity are often used to discuss stability in quantum-information processing and quantum chaos. Yet fidelity yields no information about entanglement, the characteristic property of quantum mechanics. We study the evolution of entanglement in echo dynamics. We find qualitatively different behavior between integrable and chaotic systems on one hand and between random and coherent initial states for integrable systems on the other. For the latter the evolution of entanglement is given by a classical time scale. Analytic results are illustrated numerically in a Jaynes-Cummings model

  9. Evolutionary dynamics for persistent cooperation in structured populations (United States)

    Li, Yan; Liu, Xinsheng; Claussen, Jens Christian; Guo, Wanlin


    The emergence and maintenance of cooperative behavior is a fascinating topic in evolutionary biology and social science. The public goods game (PGG) is a paradigm for exploring cooperative behavior. In PGG, the total resulting payoff is divided equally among all participants. This feature still leads to the dominance of defection without substantially magnifying the public good by a multiplying factor. Much effort has been made to explain the evolution of cooperative strategies, including a recent model in which only a portion of the total benefit is shared by all the players through introducing a new strategy named persistent cooperation. A persistent cooperator is a contributor who is willing to pay a second cost to retrieve the remaining portion of the payoff contributed by themselves. In a previous study, this model was analyzed in the framework of well-mixed populations. This paper focuses on discussing the persistent cooperation in lattice-structured populations. The evolutionary dynamics of the structured populations consisting of three types of competing players (pure cooperators, defectors, and persistent cooperators) are revealed by theoretical analysis and numerical simulations. In particular, the approximate expressions of fixation probabilities for strategies are derived on one-dimensional lattices. The phase diagrams of stationary states, and the evolution of frequencies and spatial patterns for strategies are illustrated on both one-dimensional and square lattices by simulations. Our results are consistent with the general observation that, at least in most situations, a structured population facilitates the evolution of cooperation. Specifically, here we find that the existence of persistent cooperators greatly suppresses the spreading of defectors under more relaxed conditions in structured populations compared to that obtained in well-mixed populations.

  10. Dynamically loaded beam failure under corroded conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veerman, R.P.; Koenders, E.A.B.


    De-icing salts, used on roads in heavy winters, may enter reinforced concrete (RC) structures via its capillary pore system or via cracks, initiating reinforcement corrosion and reducing its remaining service-life. Vehicles passing real bridges exert a dynamic impact action that might activate a

  11. Material properties under intensive dynamic loading

    CERN Document Server

    Cherne, Frank J; Zhernokletov, Mikhail V; Glushak, B L; Zocher, Marvin A


    Understanding the physical and thermomechanical response of materials subjected to intensive dynamic loading is a challenge of great significance in engineering today. This volume assumes the task of gathering both experimental and diagnostic methods in one place, since not much information has been previously disseminated in the scientific literature.

  12. Stochastic Online Learning in Dynamic Networks under Unknown Models (United States)


    Stochastic Online Learning in Dynamic Networks under Unknown Models This research aims to develop fundamental theories and practical algorithms for...12211 Research Triangle Park, NC 27709-2211 Online learning , multi-armed bandit, dynamic networks REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE 11. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S... Online Learning in Dynamic Networks under Unknown Models Report Title This research aims to develop fundamental theories and practical algorithms for

  13. Galactic civilizations: Population dynamics and interstellar diffusion (United States)

    Newman, W. I.; Sagan, C.


    The interstellar diffusion of galactic civilizations is reexamined by potential theory; both numerical and analytical solutions are derived for the nonlinear partial differential equations which specify a range of relevant models, drawn from blast wave physics, soil science, and, especially, population biology. An essential feature of these models is that, for all civilizations, population growth must be limited by the carrying capacity of the environment. Dispersal is fundamentally a diffusion process; a density-dependent diffusivity describes interstellar emigration. Two models are considered: the first describing zero population growth (ZPG), and the second which also includes local growth and saturation of a planetary population, and for which an asymptotic traveling wave solution is found.

  14. Seasonal population dynamics and energy consumption by ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dynamiques saisonnières de population et consommation énergétique par les oiseaux aquatiques d'un petit estuaire tempéré De simples mesures des dynamiques de population et de consommation énergétique peuvent fournir des informations de base sur le rôle des consommateurs au sein des réseaux trophiques, ...

  15. Dynamics of Hyperbranched Polymers under Confinement (United States)

    Androulaki, Krystallenia; Chrissopoulou, Kiriaki; Anastasiadis, Spiros H.; Prevosto, Daniele; Labardi, Massimiliano


    The effect of severe confinement on the dynamics of three different generations of hyperbranched polyesters (Boltorns) is investigated by Dielectric Spectroscopy. The polymers are intercalated within the galleries of natural Na+-MMT, thus, forming 1nm polymer films confined between solid walls. The Tg's of the polymers determined by DSC show a clear dependence on the generation whereas the transition is completely suppressed when all the polymer chains are intercalated. The dynamic investigation of the bulk polymers reveals two sub-Tg processes, with similar behavior for the three polymers with the segmental relaxation observed above the Tg of each. For the nanocomposites, where all polymers are severely confined, the dynamics show significant differences compared to that of the bulk polymers. The sub-Tg processes are similar for the three generations but significantly faster and with weaker temperature dependence than those in the bulk. The segmental process appears at temperatures below the bulk polymer Tg, it exhibits an Arrhenius temperature dependence and shows differences for the three generations. A slow process that appears at higher temperatures is due to interfacial polarization. Co-financed by the EU and Greek funds through the Operational Program ``Education and Lifelong Learning'' of the NSRF-Research Funding Program: THALES-Investing in knowledge society through the Eur. Social Fund (MIS 377278) and COST Action MP0902-COINAPO.

  16. Statistical dynamics of regional populations and economies (United States)

    Huo, Jie; Wang, Xu-Ming; Hao, Rui; Wang, Peng

    Quantitative analysis of human behavior and social development is becoming a hot spot of some interdisciplinary studies. A statistical analysis on the population and GDP of 150 cities in China from 1990 to 2013 is conducted. The result indicates the cumulative probability distribution of the populations and that of the GDPs obeying the shifted power law, respectively. In order to understand these characteristics, a generalized Langevin equation describing variation of population is proposed, which is based on the correlations between population and GDP as well as the random fluctuations of the related factors. The equation is transformed into the Fokker-Plank equation to express the evolution of population distribution. The general solution demonstrates a transition of the distribution from the normal Gaussian distribution to a shifted power law, which suggests a critical point of time at which the transition takes place. The shifted power law distribution in the supercritical situation is qualitatively in accordance with the practical result. The distribution of the GDPs is derived from the well-known Cobb-Douglas production function. The result presents a change, in supercritical situation, from a shifted power law to the Gaussian distribution. This is a surprising result-the regional GDP distribution of our world will be the Gaussian distribution one day in the future. The discussions based on the changing trend of economic growth suggest it will be true. Therefore, these theoretical attempts may draw a historical picture of our society in the aspects of population and economy.

  17. Intraspecific Genetic dynamics under Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Florez Rodriguez, Alexander

    Climate change has a deep influence on the maintenance and generation of global biodiversity. Past contractions, expansions and shifts in species’ ranges drove to changes in species genetic diversity. Noteworthy, the interaction among: climate change, range, population size and extinction is ofte...

  18. Population dynamics of estuarine amphipods in Cochin backwaters

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Nair, K.K.C.; Gopalakrishnan, T.C.; Venugopal, P.; Peter, G.; Jayalakshmy, K.V.; Rao, T.S.S.

    Population dynamics of 11 gammarid amphipod species (belonging to 9 genera), collected from Cochin backwaters, have been studied for the first time, based on an year round collection. The species are : Corophium triaenonyx Stebbing, Photis digitata...

  19. Drivers of waterfowl population dynamics : from teal to swans


    Koons, D. N.; Gunnarsson, Gunnar; Schmutz, J. A.; Rotella, J. J.


    Waterfowl are among the best studied and most extensively monitored species in the world. Given their global importance for sport and subsistence hunting, viewing and ecosystem functioning, great effort has been devoted since the middle part of the 20th century to understanding both the environmental and demographic mechanisms that influence waterfowl population and community dynamics. Here we use comparative approaches to summarise and contrast our understanding of waterfowl population dynam...

  20. Passivity analysis of higher order evolutionary dynamics and population games

    KAUST Repository

    Mabrok, Mohamed


    Evolutionary dynamics describe how the population composition changes in response to the fitness levels, resulting in a closed-loop feedback system. Recent work established a connection between passivity theory and certain classes of population games, namely so-called “stable games”. In particular, it was shown that a combination of stable games and (an analogue of) passive evolutionary dynamics results in stable convergence to Nash equilibrium. This paper considers the converse question of necessary conditions for evolutionary dynamics to exhibit stable behaviors for all generalized stable games. Using methods from robust control analysis, we show that if an evolutionary dynamic does not satisfy a passivity property, then it is possible to construct a generalized stable game that results in instability. The results are illustrated on selected evolutionary dynamics with particular attention to replicator dynamics, which are also shown to be lossless, a special class of passive systems.

  1. A linear model of population dynamics (United States)

    Lushnikov, A. A.; Kagan, A. I.


    The Malthus process of population growth is reformulated in terms of the probability w(n,t) to find exactly n individuals at time t assuming that both the birth and the death rates are linear functions of the population size. The master equation for w(n,t) is solved exactly. It is shown that w(n,t) strongly deviates from the Poisson distribution and is expressed in terms either of Laguerre’s polynomials or a modified Bessel function. The latter expression allows for considerable simplifications of the asymptotic analysis of w(n,t).

  2. Population dynamics in rural South Australia. (United States)

    Hugo, G J; Smailes, P J


    The authors examine recent trends in Australia in turnaround migration, or the movement of the population from urban to rural areas. "The paper assesses the major changes which have occurred in population trends within the non-metropolitan sector of the nation, South Australia and, in particular, a study area in the lower north region of South Australia. The analysis of the case study region draws upon a survey undertaken in 1968-1970 and partially replicated in 1980 and 1990. It appears that for Australia in general and for the study area the turnaround is continuing but at a slower pace and in a more spatially concentrated pattern." excerpt

  3. Population dynamical responses to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forchhammer, Mads; Schmidt, Niels Martin; Høye, Toke Thomas


    , the effects of climate change may potentially extend through any of these interactions. In this chapter, we focus on the extent to which evolutionarily distinct species at different trophic levels respond to similar changes in climate. By using a broad spectrum of statistically and ecologically founded...... and three out of five wader species, displayed significant direct density dependence. Only two species (sanderling and long-tailed skua) displayed dynamics characterised by delayed density dependence. The direct effects of previous winter's snow were related to over-wintering strategies of resident...... of arctic fox were not significantly related to changes in lemming abundance, both the stoat and the breeding of long-tailed skua were mainly related to lemming dynamics. The predator-prey system at Zackenberg differentiates from previously described systems in high-arctic Greenland, which, we suggest...

  4. Dynamics of a structured neuron population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pakdaman, Khashayar; Salort, Delphine; Perthame, Benoît


    We study the dynamics of assemblies of interacting neurons. For large fully connected networks, the dynamics of the system can be described by a partial differential equation reminiscent of age-structure models used in mathematical ecology, where the 'age' of a neuron represents the time elapsed since its last discharge. The nonlinearity arises from the connectivity J of the network. We prove some mathematical properties of the model that are directly related to qualitative properties. On the one hand, we prove that it is well-posed and that it admits stationary states which, depending upon the connectivity, can be unique or not. On the other hand, we study the long time behaviour of solutions; both for small and large J, we prove the relaxation to the steady state describing asynchronous firing of the neurons. In the middle range, numerical experiments show that periodic solutions appear expressing re-synchronization of the network and asynchronous firing

  5. Chaos and order in stateless societies: Intercommunity exchange as a factor impacting the population dynamical patterns

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Medvinsky, Alexander B., E-mail: [Institute of Theoretical and Experimental Biophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Pushchino 142290, Moscow Region (Russian Federation); Rusakov, Alexey V. [Institute of Theoretical and Experimental Biophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Pushchino 142290, Moscow Region (Russian Federation)


    Highlights: > We model community dynamics in stateless societies. > Intercommunity barter is shown to be a factor impacting the societies dynamics. > Increase in the human population growth rate can lead to appearance of chaos. > Secular and millennial cycles are found to arise as a result of the barter. - Abstract: The once abstract notions of dynamical chaos now appear naturally in various systems [Kaplan D, Glass L. Understanding nonlinear dynamics. New York: Springer; 1995]. As a result, future trajectories of the systems may be difficult to predict. In this paper, we demonstrate the appearance of chaotic dynamics in model human communities, which consist of producers of agricultural product and producers of agricultural equipment. In the case of a solitary community, the horizon of predictability of the human population dynamics is shown to be dependent on both intrinsic instability of the dynamics and the chaotic attractor sizes. Since a separate community is usually a part of a larger commonality, we study the dynamics of social systems consisting of two interacting communities. We show that intercommunity barter can lead to stabilization of the dynamics in one of the communities, which implies persistence of stable equilibrium under changes of the maximum value of the human population growth rate. However, in the neighboring community, the equilibrium turns into a stable limit cycle as the maximum value of the human population growth rate increases. Following an increase in the maximum value of the human population growth rate leads to period-doubling bifurcations resulting in chaotic dynamics. The horizon of predictability of the chaotic oscillations is found to be limited by 5 years. We demonstrate that the intercommunity interaction can lead to the appearance of long-period harmonics in the chaotic time series. The period of the harmonics is of order 100 and 1000 years. Hence the long-period changes in the population size may be considered as an

  6. Chaos and order in stateless societies: Intercommunity exchange as a factor impacting the population dynamical patterns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Medvinsky, Alexander B.; Rusakov, Alexey V.


    Highlights: → We model community dynamics in stateless societies. → Intercommunity barter is shown to be a factor impacting the societies dynamics. → Increase in the human population growth rate can lead to appearance of chaos. → Secular and millennial cycles are found to arise as a result of the barter. - Abstract: The once abstract notions of dynamical chaos now appear naturally in various systems [Kaplan D, Glass L. Understanding nonlinear dynamics. New York: Springer; 1995]. As a result, future trajectories of the systems may be difficult to predict. In this paper, we demonstrate the appearance of chaotic dynamics in model human communities, which consist of producers of agricultural product and producers of agricultural equipment. In the case of a solitary community, the horizon of predictability of the human population dynamics is shown to be dependent on both intrinsic instability of the dynamics and the chaotic attractor sizes. Since a separate community is usually a part of a larger commonality, we study the dynamics of social systems consisting of two interacting communities. We show that intercommunity barter can lead to stabilization of the dynamics in one of the communities, which implies persistence of stable equilibrium under changes of the maximum value of the human population growth rate. However, in the neighboring community, the equilibrium turns into a stable limit cycle as the maximum value of the human population growth rate increases. Following an increase in the maximum value of the human population growth rate leads to period-doubling bifurcations resulting in chaotic dynamics. The horizon of predictability of the chaotic oscillations is found to be limited by 5 years. We demonstrate that the intercommunity interaction can lead to the appearance of long-period harmonics in the chaotic time series. The period of the harmonics is of order 100 and 1000 years. Hence the long-period changes in the population size may be considered as an


    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Changes in several demographic parameters that appear to be influenced by both environmental and anthropogenic effects are described. From 1994–2001, the proportion of first-time breeders in the population was positively correlated with the maximum ENSO (Niño 3) index, whereas from 1984–2000 the annual survival ...

  8. Short Communication: Occurrence and Population Dynamics of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The dangerous tomato leaf miner pest (Tuta absoluta), which was reported to have crossed into Ethiopia via the Sudan in 2012, has scared tomato producing farmers across the country. Therefore, a study was conducted using pheromone traps to elucidate the occurrence of the insect pest and to monitor its population ...

  9. Nonlinear population dynamics in a bounded habitat. (United States)

    Colombo, E H; Anteneodo, C


    A key issue in ecology is whether a population will survive long term or go extinct. This is the question we address in this paper for a population in a bounded habitat. We will restrict our study to the case of a single species in a one-dimensional habitat of length L. The evolution of the population density distribution ρ(x, t), where x is the position and t the time, is governed by elementary processes such as growth and dispersal, which, in standard models, are typically described by a constant per capita growth rate and normal diffusion, respectively. However, feedbacks in the regulatory mechanisms and external factors can produce density-dependent rates. Therefore, we consider a generalization of the standard evolution equation, which, after dimensional scaling and assuming large carrying capacity, becomes ∂ t ρ=∂ x (ρ ν-1 ∂ x ρ)+ρ μ , where μ,ν∈R. This equation is complemented by absorbing boundaries, mimicking adverse conditions outside the habitat. For this nonlinear problem, we obtain, analytically, exact expressions of the critical habitat size L c for population survival, as a function of the exponents and initial conditions. We find that depending on the values of the exponents (ν, μ), population survival can occur for either L > L c , L < L c or for any L. This generalizes the usual statement that L c represents the minimum habitat size. In addition, nonlinearities introduce dependence on the initial conditions, affecting L c . Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  10. Quantum Entanglement Growth under Random Unitary Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam Nahum


    Full Text Available Characterizing how entanglement grows with time in a many-body system, for example, after a quantum quench, is a key problem in nonequilibrium quantum physics. We study this problem for the case of random unitary dynamics, representing either Hamiltonian evolution with time-dependent noise or evolution by a random quantum circuit. Our results reveal a universal structure behind noisy entanglement growth, and also provide simple new heuristics for the “entanglement tsunami” in Hamiltonian systems without noise. In 1D, we show that noise causes the entanglement entropy across a cut to grow according to the celebrated Kardar-Parisi-Zhang (KPZ equation. The mean entanglement grows linearly in time, while fluctuations grow like (time^{1/3} and are spatially correlated over a distance ∝(time^{2/3}. We derive KPZ universal behavior in three complementary ways, by mapping random entanglement growth to (i a stochastic model of a growing surface, (ii a “minimal cut” picture, reminiscent of the Ryu-Takayanagi formula in holography, and (iii a hydrodynamic problem involving the dynamical spreading of operators. We demonstrate KPZ universality in 1D numerically using simulations of random unitary circuits. Importantly, the leading-order time dependence of the entropy is deterministic even in the presence of noise, allowing us to propose a simple coarse grained minimal cut picture for the entanglement growth of generic Hamiltonians, even without noise, in arbitrary dimensionality. We clarify the meaning of the “velocity” of entanglement growth in the 1D entanglement tsunami. We show that in higher dimensions, noisy entanglement evolution maps to the well-studied problem of pinning of a membrane or domain wall by disorder.

  11. Dynamics of anisotropic particles under waves (United States)

    Dibenedetto, Michelle; Ouellette, Nicholas; Koseff, Jeffrey


    We present results on anisotropic particles in wavy flows in order to gain insight into the transport and mixing of microplastic particles in the near-shore environment. From theory and numerical simulations, we find that the rate of alignment of the particles is not constant and depends strongly on their initial orientation; thus, variations in initial particle orientation result in dispersion of anisotropic-particle plumes. We find that this dispersion is a function of the particle's eccentricity and the ratio of the settling and wave time scales. Experiments in which non-spherical particles of various shapes are released under surface gravity waves were also performed. Our main goal is to explore the effects of particle shape under various wave scenarios. We vary the aspect ratio of the particle in our experiments while holding other variables constant. Our results demonstrate that particle shape can be important when predicting transport.

  12. Neural dynamics underlying emotional transmissions between individuals


    Golland, Yulia; Levit-Binnun, Nava; Hendler, Talma; Lerner, Yulia


    Abstract Emotional experiences are frequently shaped by the emotional responses of co-present others. Research has shown that people constantly monitor and adapt to the incoming social–emotional signals, even without face-to-face interaction. And yet, the neural processes underlying such emotional transmissions have not been directly studied. Here, we investigated how the human brain processes emotional cues which arrive from another, co-attending individual. We presented continuous emotional...

  13. Human population dynamics in Europe over the Last Glacial Maximum (United States)

    Tallavaara, Miikka; Luoto, Miska; Korhonen, Natalia; Järvinen, Heikki; Seppä, Heikki


    The severe cooling and the expansion of the ice sheets during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), 27,000–19,000 y ago (27–19 ky ago) had a major impact on plant and animal populations, including humans. Changes in human population size and range have affected our genetic evolution, and recent modeling efforts have reaffirmed the importance of population dynamics in cultural and linguistic evolution, as well. However, in the absence of historical records, estimating past population levels has remained difficult. Here we show that it is possible to model spatially explicit human population dynamics from the pre-LGM at 30 ky ago through the LGM to the Late Glacial in Europe by using climate envelope modeling tools and modern ethnographic datasets to construct a population calibration model. The simulated range and size of the human population correspond significantly with spatiotemporal patterns in the archaeological data, suggesting that climate was a major driver of population dynamics 30–13 ky ago. The simulated population size declined from about 330,000 people at 30 ky ago to a minimum of 130,000 people at 23 ky ago. The Late Glacial population growth was fastest during Greenland interstadial 1, and by 13 ky ago, there were almost 410,000 people in Europe. Even during the coldest part of the LGM, the climatically suitable area for human habitation remained unfragmented and covered 36% of Europe. PMID:26100880

  14. Effective population size and evolutionary dynamics in outbred ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    RESEARCH ARTICLE. Effective population size and evolutionary dynamics in outbred laboratory populations of Drosophila. LAURENCE D. MUELLER1∗, AMITABH JOSHI1,2, MARTA SANTOS1 and MICHAEL R. ROSE1. 1Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA.

  15. Ruffed grouse population dynamics in the central and southern Appalachians (United States)

    John M. Giuliano Tirpak; C. Allan Miller; Thomas J. Allen; Steve Bittner; David A. Buehler; John W. Edwards; Craig A. Harper; William K. Igo; Gary W. Norman; M. Seamster; Dean F. Stauffer


    Ruffed grouse (Bonasa urnbellus; hereafter grouse) populations in the central and southern Appalachians are in decline. However, limited information on the dynamics of these populations prevents the development of effective management strategies to reverse these trends. We used radiotelemetry data collected on grouse to parameterize 6 models of...

  16. The frankincense tree of Ethiopia : ecology, productivity and population dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eshete Wassie, A.


    Keywords: Boswellian papyrifera, Frankincense tree, matrix model, population dynamics,
    population bottleneck, tapping.

    Combretum – Terminalia woodlands and Acacia – Commiphora woodlands are the two
    dominant vegetation types that cover large parts of the dry land areas in

  17. Population dynamics of the seabob shrimp Xiphopenaeus kroyeri ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The population dynamics, including the sex ratio, reproductive period, individual growth and longevity, and population structure of the shrimp Xiphopenaeus kroyeri, are described. The shrimps were collected monthly from July 2005 to June 2007 at four sites in Ubatuba Bay, Brazil. The salinity, temperature, depth, organic ...

  18. Population dynamics and distribution of the coffee berry borer ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Population dynamics and distribution of coffee berry borer, Hypothenemus hampei (Ferrari) (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) were studied on Coffea arabica L. in southwestern region of Ethiopia. Thirty coffee trees were sampled at weekly intervals from 2000 to 2001. Findings of this study showed that coffee berry borer population ...

  19. Dynamical evolution of a fictitious population of binary Neptune Trojans (United States)

    Brunini, Adrián


    We present numerical simulations of the evolution of a synthetic population of Binary Neptune Trojans, under the influence of the solar perturbations and tidal friction (the so-called Kozai cycles and tidal friction evolution). Our model includes the dynamical influence of the four giant planets on the heliocentric orbit of the binary centre of mass. In this paper, we explore the evolution of initially tight binaries around the Neptune L4 Lagrange point. We found that the variation of the heliocentric orbital elements due to the libration around the Lagrange point introduces significant changes in the orbital evolution of the binaries. Collisional processes would not play a significant role in the dynamical evolution of Neptune Trojans. After 4.5 × 109 yr of evolution, ˜50 per cent of the synthetic systems end up separated as single objects, most of them with slow diurnal rotation rate. The final orbital distribution of the surviving binary systems is statistically similar to the one found for Kuiper Belt Binaries when collisional evolution is not included in the model. Systems composed by a primary and a small satellite are more fragile than the ones composed by components of similar sizes.

  20. Modelling the Dynamics of an Aedes albopictus Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Anung Basuki


    Full Text Available We present a methodology for modelling population dynamics with formal means of computer science. This allows unambiguous description of systems and application of analysis tools such as simulators and model checkers. In particular, the dynamics of a population of Aedes albopictus (a species of mosquito and its modelling with the Stochastic Calculus of Looping Sequences (Stochastic CLS are considered. The use of Stochastic CLS to model population dynamics requires an extension which allows environmental events (such as changes in the temperature and rainfalls to be taken into account. A simulator for the constructed model is developed via translation into the specification language Maude, and used to compare the dynamics obtained from the model with real data.

  1. Null controllability of a nonlinear population dynamics problem


    Traore, Oumar


    We establish a null controllability result for a nonlinear population dynamics model. In our model, the birth term is nonlocal and describes the recruitment process in newborn individuals population. Using a derivation of Leray-Schauder fixed point theorem and Carleman inequality for the adjoint system, we show that for all given initial density, there exists an internal control acting on a small open set of the domain and leading the population to extinction.

  2. Geography, European colonization, and past population dynamics in Africa


    Vaz Silva, Luis


    Past population dynamics in Africa have remained largely elusive due to the lack of demographic data. Researchers are understandably deterred from trying to explain what is not known and African historical population estimates suffer from this lack of interest. In this paper I explain present day African population densities using mostly ecological factors as explanatory variables. I find evidence supporting the view that ecological factors deeply affected precolonial patterns of human settle...

  3. Effects of wind farms on harbour porpoise behaviour and population dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nabe-Nielsen, Jacob; Tougaard, Jakob; Teilmann, Jonas

    We developed an individual-based simulation model in order to study the cumulative impacts of wind farms and ship traffic on the long-term survival and population dynamics of the harbour porpoise (Phocoena phocoena) in Kattegat and the Belt Seas. The model is based on knowl- edge of the porpoises...... at distances >1 km. Our simulations suggest that operating wind farms and wind farms under construction do not affect the size or dynamics of the harbour porpoise population in Kattegat. Ship traffic may, in contrast, cause the population size to decrease....

  4. Coupling population dynamics with earth system models: the POPEM model. (United States)

    Navarro, Andrés; Moreno, Raúl; Jiménez-Alcázar, Alfonso; Tapiador, Francisco J


    Precise modeling of CO 2 emissions is important for environmental research. This paper presents a new model of human population dynamics that can be embedded into ESMs (Earth System Models) to improve climate modeling. Through a system dynamics approach, we develop a cohort-component model that successfully simulates historical population dynamics with fine spatial resolution (about 1°×1°). The population projections are used to improve the estimates of CO 2 emissions, thus transcending the bulk approach of existing models and allowing more realistic non-linear effects to feature in the simulations. The module, dubbed POPEM (from Population Parameterization for Earth Models), is compared with current emission inventories and validated against UN aggregated data. Finally, it is shown that the module can be used to advance toward fully coupling the social and natural components of the Earth system, an emerging research path for environmental science and pollution research.

  5. The finite state projection approach to analyze dynamics of heterogeneous populations (United States)

    Johnson, Rob; Munsky, Brian


    Population modeling aims to capture and predict the dynamics of cell populations in constant or fluctuating environments. At the elementary level, population growth proceeds through sequential divisions of individual cells. Due to stochastic effects, populations of cells are inherently heterogeneous in phenotype, and some phenotypic variables have an effect on division or survival rates, as can be seen in partial drug resistance. Therefore, when modeling population dynamics where the control of growth and division is phenotype dependent, the corresponding model must take account of the underlying cellular heterogeneity. The finite state projection (FSP) approach has often been used to analyze the statistics of independent cells. Here, we extend the FSP analysis to explore the coupling of cell dynamics and biomolecule dynamics within a population. This extension allows a general framework with which to model the state occupations of a heterogeneous, isogenic population of dividing and expiring cells. The method is demonstrated with a simple model of cell-cycle progression, which we use to explore possible dynamics of drug resistance phenotypes in dividing cells. We use this method to show how stochastic single-cell behaviors affect population level efficacy of drug treatments, and we illustrate how slight modifications to treatment regimens may have dramatic effects on drug efficacy.

  6. Dynamic Properties of the Alkaline Vesicle Population at Hippocampal Synapses (United States)

    Röther, Mareike; Brauner, Jan M.; Ebert, Katrin; Welzel, Oliver; Jung, Jasmin; Bauereiss, Anna; Kornhuber, Johannes; Groemer, Teja W.


    In compensatory endocytosis, scission of vesicles from the plasma membrane to the cytoplasm is a prerequisite for intravesicular reacidification and accumulation of neurotransmitter molecules. Here, we provide time-resolved measurements of the dynamics of the alkaline vesicle population which appears upon endocytic retrieval. Using fast perfusion pH-cycling in live-cell microscopy, synapto-pHluorin expressing rat hippocampal neurons were electrically stimulated. We found that the relative size of the alkaline vesicle population depended significantly on the electrical stimulus size: With increasing number of action potentials the relative size of the alkaline vesicle population expanded. In contrast to that, increasing the stimulus frequency reduced the relative size of the population of alkaline vesicles. Measurement of the time constant for reacification and calculation of the time constant for endocytosis revealed that both time constants were variable with regard to the stimulus condition. Furthermore, we show that the dynamics of the alkaline vesicle population can be predicted by a simple mathematical model. In conclusion, here a novel methodical approach to analyze dynamic properties of alkaline vesicles is presented and validated as a convenient method for the detection of intracellular events. Using this method we show that the population of alkaline vesicles is highly dynamic and depends both on stimulus strength and frequency. Our results implicate that determination of the alkaline vesicle population size may provide new insights into the kinetics of endocytic retrieval. PMID:25079223


    African Journals Online (AJOL)


    Type II) populations in maize (Zea mays) producing areas under Uganda conditions. Populations of the fungus ... years of study the impact of selection and genetic drift on C. zeina populations in the two Ugandan agroecologies is slow, but progressive ..... measures the probability of obtaining two different alleles at a locus ...

  8. Dynamical quorum sensing and clustering dynamics in a population of spatially distributed active rotators (United States)

    Sakaguchi, Hidetsugu; Maeyama, Satomi


    A model of clustering dynamics is proposed for a population of spatially distributed active rotators. A transition from excitable to oscillatory dynamics is induced by the increase of the local density of active rotators. It is interpreted as dynamical quorum sensing. In the oscillation regime, phase waves propagate without decay, which generates an effectively long-range interaction in the clustering dynamics. The clustering process becomes facilitated and only one dominant cluster appears rapidly as a result of the dynamical quorum sensing. An exact localized solution is found to a simplified model equation, and the competitive dynamics between two localized states is studied numerically.

  9. Low dimensional homeochaos in coevolving host-parasitoid dimorphic populations: Extinction thresholds under local noise (United States)

    Sardanyés, Josep


    A discrete time model describing the population dynamics of coevolution between host and parasitoid haploid populations with a dimorphic matching allele coupling is investigated under both determinism and stochastic population disturbances. The role of the properties of the attractors governing the survival of both populations is analyzed considering equal mutation rates and focusing on host and parasitoid growth rates involving chaos. The purely deterministic model reveals a wide range of ordered and chaotic Red Queen dynamics causing cyclic and aperiodic fluctuations of haplotypes within each species. A Ruelle-Takens-Newhouse route to chaos is identified by increasing both host and parasitoid growth rates. From the bifurcation diagram structure and from numerical stability analysis, two different types of chaotic sets are roughly differentiated according to their size in phase space and to their largest Lyapunov exponent: the Confined and Expanded attractors. Under the presence of local population noise, these two types of attractors have a crucial role in the survival of both coevolving populations. The chaotic confined attractors, which have a low largest positive Lyapunov exponent, are shown to involve a very low extinction probability under the influence of local population noise. On the contrary, the expanded chaotic sets (with a higher largest positive Lyapunov exponent) involve higher host and parasitoid extinction probabilities under the presence of noise. The asynchronies between haplotypes in the chaotic regime combined with low dimensional homeochaos tied to the confined attractors is suggested to reinforce the long-term persistence of these coevolving populations under the influence of stochastic disturbances. These ideas are also discussed in the framework of spatially-distributed host-parasitoid populations.

  10. Dinámica de las Poblaciones de Lombrices en un Andisol Sometido a Distintos Sistemas de Uso del Suelo / Population Dynamics of Earthworms in an Andisol under Different Soil Use Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramiro Ramírez Pisco


    Full Text Available Se evaluó la composición taxonómica de la poblaciónde lombrices en un Andisol en la vereda Montañitas del municipio Marinilla (Antioquia, Colombia luego de 5 y 10 años de labranza, después de 5 y 10 años de barbecho y en condiciones prístinas. El muestreo fue realizado por el método del monolito, propuesto por el programa Tropical Soil Biology and Fertility (TSBF. Se realizó extracción directa de los individuos, los cuales fueron caracterizadosy descritos según los géneros encontrados en cada condición, para luego relacionarlos con los usos del suelo; fueron encontrados tres géneros: Pontoscolex corenthrurus, Amynthas corticis y Martiodrilus sp. En el suelo virgen se presentó P. corenthrurus, pero luego de 5 años de labranza se evidenció un predominio del género A. corticis y una baja presencia del género Martiodrilus sp. Luego de 10 años de labranza no se encontraron anélidos; sin embargo, durante el barbecho la población de lombrices incrementó en forma significativa. Los agregados estables del suelo disminuyeron en la medida en que el suelo fue sometidoa labranza, y se incrementó durante los periodos de barbecho, asociado a la densidad de lombrices y a su concentración en los primeros 10 cm de profundidad, corroborando su participación en la agregación del suelo. / The taxonomic composition of the population ofearthworms in Andisol was evaluated on the rural area ofMontañitas, Marinilla municipality (Antioquia, Colombia, under different conditions: after 5 and 10 years of farming, after 5 and 10 years of fallow as well as under pristine conditions. The sampling was performed by using the method of the monolith, proposed by the program Tropical Soil Biology and Fertility (TSBF.The specimens were obtained by direct extraction from eachsample, which then were characterized and described according to genera found under each condition, and then relate land usage.Three different genera of earthworms were found

  11. Generational Spreading Speed and the Dynamics of Population Range Expansion. (United States)

    Bateman, Andrew W; Neubert, Michael G; Krkošek, Martin; Lewis, Mark A


    Some of the most fundamental quantities in population ecology describe the growth and spread of populations. Population dynamics are often characterized by the annual rate of increase, λ, or the generational rate of increase, R0. Analyses involving R0 have deepened our understanding of disease dynamics and life-history complexities beyond that afforded by analysis of annual growth alone. While range expansion is quantified by the annual spreading speed, a spatial analog of λ, an R0-like expression for the rate of spread is missing. Using integrodifference models, we derive the appropriate generational spreading speed for populations with complex (stage-structured) life histories. The resulting measure, relevant to locations near the expanding edge of a (re)colonizing population, incorporates both local population growth and explicit spatial dispersal rather than solely growth across a population, as is the case for R0. The calculations for generational spreading speed are often simpler than those for annual spreading speed, and analytic or partial analytic solutions can yield insight into the processes that facilitate or slow a population's spatial spread. We analyze the spatial dynamics of green crabs, sea otters, and teasel as examples to demonstrate the flexibility of our methods and the intuitive insights that they afford.

  12. The basic approach to age-structured population dynamics models, methods and numerics

    CERN Document Server

    Iannelli, Mimmo


    This book provides an introduction to age-structured population modeling which emphasises the connection between mathematical theory and underlying biological assumptions. Through the rigorous development of the linear theory and the nonlinear theory alongside numerics, the authors explore classical equations that describe the dynamics of certain ecological systems. Modeling aspects are discussed to show how relevant problems in the fields of demography, ecology, and epidemiology can be formulated and treated within the theory. In particular, the book presents extensions of age-structured modelling to the spread of diseases and epidemics while also addressing the issue of regularity of solutions, the asymptotic behaviour of solutions, and numerical approximation. With sections on transmission models, non-autonomous models and global dynamics, this book fills a gap in the literature on theoretical population dynamics. The Basic Approach to Age-Structured Population Dynamics will appeal to graduate students an...

  13. Population and evolutionary dynamics in spatially structured seasonally varying environments. (United States)

    Reid, Jane M; Travis, Justin M J; Daunt, Francis; Burthe, Sarah J; Wanless, Sarah; Dytham, Calvin


    Increasingly imperative objectives in ecology are to understand and forecast population dynamic and evolutionary responses to seasonal environmental variation and change. Such population and evolutionary dynamics result from immediate and lagged responses of all key life-history traits, and resulting demographic rates that affect population growth rate, to seasonal environmental conditions and population density. However, existing population dynamic and eco-evolutionary theory and models have not yet fully encompassed within-individual and among-individual variation, covariation, structure and heterogeneity, and ongoing evolution, in a critical life-history trait that allows individuals to respond to seasonal environmental conditions: seasonal migration. Meanwhile, empirical studies aided by new animal-tracking technologies are increasingly demonstrating substantial within-population variation in the occurrence and form of migration versus year-round residence, generating diverse forms of 'partial migration' spanning diverse species, habitats and spatial scales. Such partially migratory systems form a continuum between the extreme scenarios of full migration and full year-round residence, and are commonplace in nature. Here, we first review basic scenarios of partial migration and associated models designed to identify conditions that facilitate the maintenance of migratory polymorphism. We highlight that such models have been fundamental to the development of partial migration theory, but are spatially and demographically simplistic compared to the rich bodies of population dynamic theory and models that consider spatially structured populations with dispersal but no migration, or consider populations experiencing strong seasonality and full obligate migration. Second, to provide an overarching conceptual framework for spatio-temporal population dynamics, we define a 'partially migratory meta-population' system as a spatially structured set of locations that can

  14. feedback between population and evolutionary dynamics determines the fate of social microbial populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alvaro Sanchez

    Full Text Available The evolutionary spread of cheater strategies can destabilize populations engaging in social cooperative behaviors, thus demonstrating that evolutionary changes can have profound implications for population dynamics. At the same time, the relative fitness of cooperative traits often depends upon population density, thus leading to the potential for bi-directional coupling between population density and the evolution of a cooperative trait. Despite the potential importance of these eco-evolutionary feedback loops in social species, they have not yet been demonstrated experimentally and their ecological implications are poorly understood. Here, we demonstrate the presence of a strong feedback loop between population dynamics and the evolutionary dynamics of a social microbial gene, SUC2, in laboratory yeast populations whose cooperative growth is mediated by the SUC2 gene. We directly visualize eco-evolutionary trajectories of hundreds of populations over 50-100 generations, allowing us to characterize the phase space describing the interplay of evolution and ecology in this system. Small populations collapse despite continual evolution towards increased cooperative allele frequencies; large populations with a sufficient number of cooperators "spiral" to a stable state of coexistence between cooperator and cheater strategies. The presence of cheaters does not significantly affect the equilibrium population density, but it does reduce the resilience of the population as well as its ability to adapt to a rapidly deteriorating environment. Our results demonstrate the potential ecological importance of coupling between evolutionary dynamics and the population dynamics of cooperatively growing organisms, particularly in microbes. Our study suggests that this interaction may need to be considered in order to explain intraspecific variability in cooperative behaviors, and also that this feedback between evolution and ecology can critically affect the

  15. Interacting trophic forcing and the population dynamics of herring

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindegren, Martin; Ostman, Orjan; Gardmark, Anna


    . Using a statistical, age-structured modeling approach, we demonstrate the relative importance and influence of bottom-up (e.g., climate, zooplankton availability) and top-down (i.e., fishing and predation) factors on the population dynamics of Bothnian Sea herring (Clupea harengus) throughout its life......Small pelagic fish occupy a central position in marine ecosystems worldwide, largely by determining the energy transfer from lower trophic levels to predators at the top of the food web, including humans. Population dynamics of small pelagic fish may therefore be regulated neither strictly bottom......-up nor top-down, but rather through multiple external and internal drivers. While in many studies single drivers have been identified, potential synergies of multiple factors, as well as their relative importance in regulating population dynamics of small pelagic fish, is a largely unresolved issue...

  16. Adaptive Dynamics, Control, and Extinction in Networked Populations (United States)


    extinction . VI. CONCLUSIONS We have presented a method for predicting extinction in stochastic network systems by analyzing a pair-based proxy model...including games on networks (e.g., [40], [41]). Further, we expect that our method of continuously varying a parameter while tracking the path to extinction ...Adaptive Dynamics, Control, and Extinction in Networked Populations Ira B. Schwartz US Naval Research Laboratory Code 6792 Nonlinear System Dynamics

  17. A general method for modeling population dynamics and its applications. (United States)

    Shestopaloff, Yuri K


    Studying populations, be it a microbe colony or mankind, is important for understanding how complex systems evolve and exist. Such knowledge also often provides insights into evolution, history and different aspects of human life. By and large, populations' prosperity and decline is about transformation of certain resources into quantity and other characteristics of populations through growth, replication, expansion and acquisition of resources. We introduce a general model of population change, applicable to different types of populations, which interconnects numerous factors influencing population dynamics, such as nutrient influx and nutrient consumption, reproduction period, reproduction rate, etc. It is also possible to take into account specific growth features of individual organisms. We considered two recently discovered distinct growth scenarios: first, when organisms do not change their grown mass regardless of nutrients availability, and the second when organisms can reduce their grown mass by several times in a nutritionally poor environment. We found that nutrient supply and reproduction period are two major factors influencing the shape of population growth curves. There is also a difference in population dynamics between these two groups. Organisms belonging to the second group are significantly more adaptive to reduction of nutrients and far more resistant to extinction. Also, such organisms have substantially more frequent and lesser in amplitude fluctuations of population quantity for the same periodic nutrient supply (compared to the first group). Proposed model allows adequately describing virtually any possible growth scenario, including complex ones with periodic and irregular nutrient supply and other changing parameters, which present approaches cannot do.

  18. Breeding site heterogeneity reduces variability in frog recruitment and population dynamics (United States)

    McCaffery, Rebecca M.; Eby, Lisa A.; Maxell, Bryce A.; Corn, Paul Stephen


    Environmental stochasticity can have profound effects on the dynamics and viability of wild populations, and habitat heterogeneity provides one mechanism by which populations may be buffered against the negative effects of environmental fluctuations. Heterogeneity in breeding pond hydroperiod across the landscape may allow amphibian populations to persist despite variable interannual precipitation. We examined recruitment dynamics over 10 yr in a high-elevation Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) population that breeds in ponds with a variety of hydroperiods. We combined these data with matrix population models to quantify the consequences of heterogeneity in pond hydroperiod on net recruitment (i.e. number of metamorphs produced) and population growth rates. We compared our heterogeneous system to hypothetical homogeneous environments with only ephemeral ponds, only semi-permanent ponds, and only permanent ponds. We also examined the effects of breeding pond habitat loss on population growth rates. Most eggs were laid in permanent ponds each year, but survival to metamorphosis was highest in the semi-permanent ponds. Recruitment success varied by both year and pond type. Net recruitment and stochastic population growth rate were highest under a scenario with homogeneous semi-permanent ponds, but variability in recruitment was lowest in the scenario with the observed heterogeneity in hydroperiods. Loss of pond habitat decreased population growth rate, with greater decreases associated with loss of permanent and semi-permanent habitat. The presence of a diversity of pond hydroperiods on the landscape will influence population dynamics, including reducing variability in recruitment in an uncertain climatic future.

  19. Dynamic Stability of Euler Beams under Axial Unsteady Wind Force

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    You-Qin Huang


    Full Text Available Dynamic instability of beams in complex structures caused by unsteady wind load has occurred more frequently. However, studies on the parametric resonance of beams are generally limited to harmonic loads, while arbitrary dynamic load is rarely involved. The critical frequency equation for simply supported Euler beams with uniform section under arbitrary axial dynamic forces is firstly derived in this paper based on the Mathieu-Hill equation. Dynamic instability regions with high precision are then calculated by a presented eigenvalue method. Further, the dynamically unstable state of beams under the wind force with any mean or fluctuating component is determined by load normalization, and the wind-induced parametric resonant response is computed by the Runge-Kutta approach. Finally, a measured wind load time-history is input into the dynamic system to indicate that the proposed methods are effective. This study presents a new method to determine the wind-induced dynamic stability of Euler beams. The beam would become dynamically unstable provided that the parametric point, denoting the relation between load properties and structural frequency, is located in the instability region, no matter whether the wind load component is large or not.

  20. Network evolution induced by the dynamical rules of two populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Platini, Thierry; Zia, R K P


    We study the dynamical properties of a finite dynamical network composed of two interacting populations, namely extrovert (a) and introvert (b). In our model, each group is characterized by its size (N a and N b ) and preferred degree (κ a and κ b a ). The network dynamics is governed by the competing microscopic rules of each population that consist of the creation and destruction of links. Starting from an unconnected network, we give a detailed analysis of the mean field approach which is compared to Monte Carlo simulation data. The time evolution of the restricted degrees (k bb ) and (k ab ) presents three time regimes and a non-monotonic behavior well captured by our theory. Surprisingly, when the population sizes are equal N a = N b , the ratio of the restricted degree θ 0 = (k ab )/(k bb ) appears to be an integer in the asymptotic limits of the three time regimes. For early times (defined by t 1 = κ b ) the total number of links presents a linear evolution, where the two populations are indistinguishable and where θ 0 = 1. Interestingly, in the intermediate time regime (defined for t 1 2 ∝κ a and for which θ 0 = 5), the system reaches a transient stationary state, where the number of contacts among introverts remains constant while the number of connections increases linearly in the extrovert population. Finally, due to the competing dynamics, the network presents a frustrated stationary state characterized by a ratio θ 0 = 3

  1. Stochastic population dynamics of a montane ground-dwelling squirrel.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffrey A Hostetler

    Full Text Available Understanding the causes and consequences of population fluctuations is a central goal of ecology. We used demographic data from a long-term (1990-2008 study and matrix population models to investigate factors and processes influencing the dynamics and persistence of a golden-mantled ground squirrel (Callospermophilus lateralis population, inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat in Colorado, USA. The overall deterministic population growth rate λ was 0.94±SE 0.05 but it varied widely over time, ranging from 0.45±0.09 in 2006 to 1.50±0.12 in 2003, and was below replacement (λ<1 for 9 out of 18 years. The stochastic population growth rate λ(s was 0.92, suggesting a declining population; however, the 95% CI on λ(s included 1.0 (0.52-1.60. Stochastic elasticity analysis showed that survival of adult females, followed by survival of juvenile females and litter size, were potentially the most influential vital rates; analysis of life table response experiments revealed that the same three life history variables made the largest contributions to year-to year changes in λ. Population viability analysis revealed that, when the influences of density dependence and immigration were not considered, the population had a high (close to 1.0 in 50 years probability of extinction. However, probability of extinction declined to as low as zero when density dependence and immigration were considered. Destabilizing effects of stochastic forces were counteracted by regulating effects of density dependence and rescue effects of immigration, which allowed our study population to bounce back from low densities and prevented extinction. These results suggest that dynamics and persistence of our study population are determined synergistically by density-dependence, stochastic forces, and immigration.

  2. Population dynamics in the capitalist world-economy


    Danna, D.


    World-systems analysis has given scant attention to population dynamics. Overlooked are large-scale macrohistorical population trends and their microhistorical foundation on procreative decisions-decisions which are taken by a historically changing subject of procreation: local elders or other authorities, head(s) of the household, couples, and women. The discipline of demography is also not as helpful as it could be, given its basis in modernization theory, which fails to recognize intention...

  3. Technological change, population dynamics, and natural resource depletion


    Schaefer, Andreas


    In this paper, we integrate fertility and educational choices into a scale-invariant model of directed technological change with non-renewable natural resources, in order to reveal the interaction between population dynamics, technological change, and natural resource depletion. In line with empirical regularities, skill-biased technological change induces a decline in population growth and a transitory increase in the depletion rate of natural resources. In the long-run, the depletion rate a...

  4. System dynamics of manpower planning strategies under various demand scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Mutingi


    Full Text Available The development of human resources recruitment and training strategies in a dynamic environment poses a challenge to many policy makers in various organisations. The goal of every human resource manager is to recruit, train and deploy the right personnel at the right place and at the right time in order to meet organizational requirements. We develop a system dynamics simulation model that captures the dynamic behaviour of a typical corporate manpower system. Three major strategies are indentified and simulated under different manpower demand scenarios. Based on a set of performance indices, the impact of the strategies is simulated under assumed demand scenarios including steady increasing, fluctuating, and s-shaped demand. Useful managerial insights are derived from the study. The model is a decision support tool for developing reliable dynamic manpower policies in terms of recruitment, training capacity, available skills, and attrition. This approach can assist organizations to design effective manpower strategies.

  5. An individual-based model of Zebrafish population dynamics accounting for energy dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beaudouin, Remy; Goussen, Benoit; Piccini, Benjamin


    Developing population dynamics models for zebrafish is crucial in order to extrapolate from toxicity data measured at the organism level to biological levels relevant to support and enhance ecological risk assessment. To achieve this, a dynamic energy budget for individual zebrafish (DEB model) w...

  6. Estimating Traveler Populations at Airport and Cruise Terminals for Population Distribution and Dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jochem, Warren C [ORNL; Sims, Kelly M [ORNL; Bright, Eddie A [ORNL; Urban, Marie L [ORNL; Rose, Amy N [ORNL; Coleman, Phil R [ORNL; Bhaduri, Budhendra L [ORNL


    In recent years, uses of high-resolution population distribution databases are increasing steadily for environmental, socioeconomic, public health, and disaster-related research and operations. With the development of daytime population distribution, temporal resolution of such databases has been improved. However, the lack of incorporation of transitional population, namely business and leisure travelers, leaves a significant population unaccounted for within the critical infrastructure networks, such as at transportation hubs. This paper presents two general methodologies for estimating passenger populations in airport and cruise port terminals at a high temporal resolution which can be incorporated into existing population distribution models. The methodologies are geographically scalable and are based on, and demonstrate how, two different transportation hubs with disparate temporal population dynamics can be modeled utilizing publicly available databases including novel data sources of flight activity from the Internet which are updated in near-real time. The airport population estimation model shows great potential for rapid implementation for a large collection of airports on a national scale, and the results suggest reasonable accuracy in the estimated passenger traffic. By incorporating population dynamics at high temporal resolutions into population distribution models, we hope to improve the estimates of populations exposed to or at risk to disasters, thereby improving emergency planning and response, and leading to more informed policy decisions.

  7. Population dynamics and monitoring applied to decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Conroy, M. J.


    influence diagrams to capture the stochastic, temporal processes of managing cheetah population in Kenya. The model predicts likely anagement decisions made by various actors within these countries, (e.g., the President, the Environmental Protection Agency, and rural residents and the resulting probability of cheetah extinction following these decisions. By approaching the problem in both its political and ecological contexts one avoids consideration of decisions that, while beneficial from a purely conservation point of view, are unlikely to be implemented because of conflicting political objectives. Haas’s analysis demonstrates both the promise and challenges of this type of modeling, and he offers suggestions for overcoming inherent technical difficulties such as model calibration. The second paper, by Simon Hoyle and Mark Maunder (Hoyle & Maunder, 2004, uses a Bayesian approach to model population dynamics and the effects of commercial fishing bycatch for the eastern Pacific Ocean spotted dolphin (Stenella attenuata. Their paper provides a good example of why Bayesian analysis is particularly suited to many management problems. Namely, because it allows the integration of disparate pieces of monitoring data in the simultaneous estimation of population parameters; allows forincorporation of expert judgment and data from other systems and species; and provides for explicit consideration of uncertainty in decision–making. Alternative management scenarios can then be explored via forward simulations. In the third paper, Chris Fonnesbeck and Mike Conroy (Fonnesbeck & Conroy, 2004 present an integrated approach for estimating parameters and predicting abundance of American black duck (Anas rubripes populations. They also employ a ayesian approach and overcome some of the computational challenges by using Markov chain–Monte Carlo methods. Ring–recovery and harvest data are used to estimate fall age ratios under alternative reproductive models. These in turn are used to

  8. Generalization of the Rabi population inversion dynamics in the sub-one-cycle pulse limit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doslic, N.


    We consider the population inversion in a two-level system generated by a sub-one-cycle pulse excitation. Specifically, we explore the effect that the time derivative of the pulse envelope has on the Rabi dynamics. Our analysis is based on a combination of analytical, perturbative, and nonperturbative treatments and is complemented by numerical simulations. We find a shortening of the Rabi inversion period and show that complete inversion is unobtainable under resonant, ultrashort pulse conditions. The impact of nonresonant and carrier-envelope phase-dependent effects on the dynamics of two-level and multilevel systems is studied numerically, and conditions for complete population inversion are derived

  9. Population Dynamics of the East African Sleeping Sickness ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Mathematical models of the East African sleeping sickness epidemiology are presented. This paper is aimed at modelling the dynamics of the disease as it affects the human and domestic animal populations. The mathematical model is extended to include the contact rate of the tsetse flies with the wild park animals that ...

  10. The Onchorcerciasis Disease: Population Dynamics of Its Host And ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Onchocerciasis disease is a debilitating disease that hampers the well-being and productive capacity of an affected person. In this work, we looked at the population dynamics of the Host (Man), the Vector (Simulium Damnosium – the Blackfly ) and the possible Microfilaria output of the worm in the Host via Mathematical ...

  11. Population Dynamics of the Giant African River Prawn ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)


    Growth, mortality, recruitment, yield-per-recruit and present rate of exploitation of the African river prawn Macrobrachium vollenhovenii were ... The present study is the first report on the population dynamics of the species in the Cross River Estuary,. Nigeria, and provides ..... Sea Demersal Fish Comm. 1979/G/24, 26 pp.

  12. Population dynamics of the invasive fish, Gambusia affinis , in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The alien invasive Gambusia affinis is one of the most widely introduced fish species on the planet, and has established in freshwater ecosystems across South Africa. The invasion ecology and, in particular, the population dynamics of the species in this country are, however, poorly understood. In this study the relative ...

  13. Binary Populations and Stellar Dynamics in Young Clusters (United States)

    Vanbeveren, D.; Belkus, H.; Van Bever, J.; Mennekens, N.


    We first summarize work that has been done on the effects of binaries on theoretical population synthesis of stars and stellar phenomena. Next, we highlight the influence of stellar dynamics in young clusters by discussing a few candidate UFOs (unconventionally formed objects) like intermediate mass black holes, η Car, ζ Pup, γ2 Velorum and WR 140.

  14. Population Dynamics of Southern Pine Beetle in Forest Landscapes (United States)

    Andrew Birt


    Southern pine beetle (SPB) is an important pest of Southeastern United States pine forests. Periodic regional outbreaks are characterized by localized areas of tree mortality (infestations) surrounded by areas with little or no damage. Ultimately, this spatiotemporal pattern of tree mortality is driven by the dynamics of SPB populations—more specifically, by rates of...

  15. Termite Population Dynamics in Arenic Kandiudults as Influenced by ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Termites have been identified as one of the major pests of cassava in Nigeria especially on infested soils. Termite Population Dynamics in Arenic Kandiudults as Influenced by Tillage and Organic Manure Sources in a Cassava Farm in Owerri, Southeastern Nigeria, was investigated in this study. Three years of field trials ...

  16. Breeding seasonality and population dynamics of the catfish Schilbe ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Twelve consecutive months length frequency data (N = 6999) and FiSAT software were used in the study of the dynamics of exploited population the catfish Schilbe mystus in the Cross River Nigeria. Variation in monthly mean gonadosmtic index showed two peaks, March and September and this indicates that the species ...

  17. The population dynamics of the estuarine isopod Exosphaeroma ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The population dynamics of the estuarine isopod, Exosphaeroma hylocoetes, was investigated monthly from February 2006 to August 2007 in three temporarily open/closed Eastern Cape estuaries, the East and West Kleinemonde and Kasouga Estuaries. Mean isopod abundances and biomasses ranged between 0 and ...

  18. Network evolution induced by the dynamical rules of two populations (United States)

    Platini, Thierry; Zia, R. K. P.


    We study the dynamical properties of a finite dynamical network composed of two interacting populations, namely extrovert (a) and introvert (b). In our model, each group is characterized by its size (Na and Nb) and preferred degree (κa and \\kappa_b\\ll \\kappa_a ). The network dynamics is governed by the competing microscopic rules of each population that consist of the creation and destruction of links. Starting from an unconnected network, we give a detailed analysis of the mean field approach which is compared to Monte Carlo simulation data. The time evolution of the restricted degrees langkbbrang and langkabrang presents three time regimes and a non-monotonic behavior well captured by our theory. Surprisingly, when the population sizes are equal Na = Nb, the ratio of the restricted degree θ0 = langkabrang/langkbbrang appears to be an integer in the asymptotic limits of the three time regimes. For early times (defined by t introverts remains constant while the number of connections increases linearly in the extrovert population. Finally, due to the competing dynamics, the network presents a frustrated stationary state characterized by a ratio θ0 = 3.


    Four methods (light traps, foliage samples, canvas bands, and gypsy moth egg mass surveys) that are used to study the population dynamics of foliage-feeding Lepidoptera were compared for 10 species, including gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar L. Samples were collected weekly at 12 sit...

  20. Population dynamics of soil microbes and diversity of Bacillus ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Population dynamics of soil microbes and diversity of Bacillus thuringiensis in agricultural and botanic garden soils of India. ... The PDF file you selected should load here if your Web browser has a PDF reader plug-in installed (for example, a recent version of Adobe Acrobat Reader). If you would like more information about ...

  1. Population dynamics and spatial behaviour of Microtus tatricus (Arvicolinae, Rodentia)

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Rudá, M.; Kocian, Ľ.; Martínková, Natália; Žiak, D.


    Roč. 55, č. 1 (2010), s. 85-88 ISSN 0001-7051 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60930519 Keywords : Tatra vole * population dynamics * spatial activity Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 0.985, year: 2010

  2. Individual based model of slug population and spatial dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Choi, Y.H.; Bohan, D.A.; Potting, R.P.J.; Semenov, M.A.; Glen, D.M.


    The slug, Deroceras reticulatum, is one of the most important pests of agricultural and horticultural crops in UK and Europe. In this paper, a spatially explicit individual based model (IbM) is developed to study the dynamics of a population of D. reticulatum. The IbM establishes a virtual field

  3. Predicting population and community dynamics: the type of aggregation matters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meyer, K.; Schiffers, T.; Münkemüller, T.; Schädler, M.; Calabrese, J.; Basset, A.; Breulmann, M.; Duquesne, S.; Hidding, B.; Huth, A.; Schöb, C.; Voorde, van de T.F.J.


    When investigating complex ecological dynamics at the population or community level, we necessarily need to abstract and aggregate ecological information. The way in which information is aggregated may be crucial for the outcome of the study. In this paper, we suggest that in addition to the

  4. Inmate Population Dynamics at the United States Disciplinary Barracks. (United States)


    Prisoner population growth. 2. Prisoner popula- . tion forecasting. 3. Military prisoner overcrowding at USDB. 4. Elements of prisoner population . 5...of decisions in the Army. This thesis was initiated as a result not of overwhelming problems of overcrowding or of any particular problems or crises...AUG 83 UNCLASSIFIED F/il 5/9 N 12.2 Ln 1,6 1 2 .0 I~ii~ L 111U2 ICROCOP RSLUINTSCHR NAIOALBUEA F TAD336 1%- 2> Inmate Population Dynamics at the United

  5. Radial propagation in population dynamics with density-dependent diffusion (United States)

    Ngamsaad, Waipot


    Population dynamics that evolve in a radial symmetric geometry are investigated. The nonlinear reaction-diffusion model, which depends on population density, is employed as the governing equation for this system. The approximate analytical solution to this equation is found. It shows that the population density evolves from the initial state and propagates in a traveling-wave-like manner for a long-time scale. If the distance is insufficiently long, the curvature has an ineluctable influence on the density profile and front speed. In comparison, the analytical solution is in agreement with the numerical solution.

  6. Disentangling seasonal bacterioplankton population dynamics by high-frequency sampling. (United States)

    Lindh, Markus V; Sjöstedt, Johanna; Andersson, Anders F; Baltar, Federico; Hugerth, Luisa W; Lundin, Daniel; Muthusamy, Saraladevi; Legrand, Catherine; Pinhassi, Jarone


    Multiyear comparisons of bacterioplankton succession reveal that environmental conditions drive community shifts with repeatable patterns between years. However, corresponding insight into bacterioplankton dynamics at a temporal resolution relevant for detailed examination of variation and characteristics of specific populations within years is essentially lacking. During 1 year, we collected 46 samples in the Baltic Sea for assessing bacterial community composition by 16S rRNA gene pyrosequencing (nearly twice weekly during productive season). Beta-diversity analysis showed distinct clustering of samples, attributable to seemingly synchronous temporal transitions among populations (populations defined by 97% 16S rRNA gene sequence identity). A wide spectrum of bacterioplankton dynamics was evident, where divergent temporal patterns resulted both from pronounced differences in relative abundance and presence/absence of populations. Rates of change in relative abundance calculated for individual populations ranged from 0.23 to 1.79 day(-1) . Populations that were persistently dominant, transiently abundant or generally rare were found in several major bacterial groups, implying evolution has favoured a similar variety of life strategies within these groups. These findings suggest that high temporal resolution sampling allows constraining the timescales and frequencies at which distinct populations transition between being abundant or rare, thus potentially providing clues about physical, chemical or biological forcing on bacterioplankton community structure. © 2014 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. [Population dynamics and armed violence in Colombia, 1985-2010]. (United States)

    Salaya, Hernán Eduardo; Rodríguez, Jesús


    Describe changes in the population structure of Colombia's municipalities in relation to internal displacement in response to armed violence. A descriptive ecological study was carried out. Secondary sources were consulted, taken from the Consolidated Registry of Displaced Population and from the National Administrative Department of Statistics, to calculate expulsion and reception rates for population displaced by violence from 2002 to 2010. Based on these rates, four groups were created of municipalities in the extreme quartile for each rate during the entire period, which were classified as high expulsion, low expulsion, high reception, and low reception. Subsequently, population pyramids and structure indicators were constructed for each group of municipalities for two comparative reference years (1985 and 2010). Municipalities with high expulsion or reception rates experienced a slower epidemiological transition, with lower mean ages and aging indices. The high expulsion group had the least regression, based on the Sundbärg index. In the high reception group, the masculinity ratio decreased the most, especially among the economically active population, and it had the highest population growth. Population dynamics in Colombia have been affected by armed violence and changes in these dynamics are not uniform across the country, leading to important social, economic, and cultural consequences. This study is useful for decision-making and public policy making.

  8. Dynamic of population-dynamics in a medically important snail species Lymnaea (Radix Luteola (Lamarck

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. K. Misra


    Full Text Available The life-cycle parameters of the snail Lymnaea (Radix luteola and the factors influencing the same have been studied under laboratory conditions. Ins each month, from July 1990 to June 1991, a batch of 100 zero-day old individual were considered for studies. The snails of April batch survived for 19.42 days while those in December batch survived for 87.45 days. The May batch individual though survived for 65.67 days gained maximum shell size (15.84 mm in length and body weight (419.87 mg. All individuals of April batch died prior to attainment of sexual maturity. In the remaining 11 batches the snails became sexually mature between 32 and 53 days. At this stage, they were with varying shell lengths, 9.3 mm to 13,11 mm in respect to batches. The reproduction period varied from 1-67 days. An individual laid, on an average, 0,25 (March batch to 443.67 (May batch eggs in its life-span. A batch of such snails would leave 24312, 22520, 720268, 80408, 76067, 418165, 214, 9202, 0, 0, 2459386 and 127894 individuals at the end of 352nd day. Since the environmental conditions were almost similar the 'dynamic' of population dynamics seems to be involved with the 'strain' of the snail individuals of the batches concerned.

  9. Stochastic population dynamics in populations of western terrestrial garter snakes with divergent life histories. (United States)

    Miller, David A; Clark, William R; Arnold, Stevan J; Bronikowski, Anne M


    Comparative evaluations of population dynamics in species with temporal and spatial variation in life-history traits are rare because they require long-term demographic time series from multiple populations. We present such an analysis using demographic data collected during the interval 1978-1996 for six populations of western terrestrial garter snakes (Thamnophis elegans) from two evolutionarily divergent ecotypes. Three replicate populations from a slow-living ecotype, found in mountain meadows of northeastern California, were characterized by individuals that develop slowly, mature late, reproduce infrequently with small reproductive effort, and live longer than individuals of three populations of a fast-living ecotype found at lakeshore locales. We constructed matrix population models for each of the populations based on 8-13 years of data per population and analyzed both deterministic dynamics based on mean annual vital rates and stochastic dynamics incorporating annual variation in vital rates. (1) Contributions of highly variable vital rates to fitness (lambda(s)) were buffered against the negative effects of stochastic variation, and this relationship was consistent with differences between the meadow (M-slow) and lakeshore (L-fast) ecotypes. (2) Annual variation in the proportion of gravid females had the greatest negative effect among all vital rates on lambda(s). The magnitude of variation in the proportion of gravid females and its effect on lambda(s) was greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. (3) Variation in the proportion of gravid females, in turn, depended on annual variation in prey availability, and its effect on lambda(s) was 4 23 times greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. In addition to differences in stochastic dynamics between ecotypes, we also found higher mean mortality rates across all age classes in the L-fast populations. Our results suggest that both deterministic and stochastic selective forces have affected the evolution of

  10. Past and present population dynamics of narwhals Monodon monoceros

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Garde, Eva

    , meat and mattak. Concerns have been raised about the sustainability of the hunt, which have led to implementation of hunting quotas in both countries. Hunting quotas are usually calculated from population dynamics models where survival and reproductive rates, based on reliable age distributions...... of both marine and terrestrial mammals, although the technique still requires both optimization and further validation. In addition, the thesis includes a study of past population dynamics in narwhals. We have investigated the genetic response to climate change and the emographic history of the narwhal......, are vital. Estimation of life history parameters for the narwhal has previously been hindered by lack of a reliable age estimation technique. The Aspartic Acid Racemization (AAR) technique is a relatively novel method that I have applied to narwhals. This PhD thesis focuses, in part, on current population...

  11. [Nonlinear population dynamics: complication in the age structure influences transition-to-chaos scenarios]. (United States)

    Zhdanova, O L; Frisman, E Ia


    The work continues a series of studies on the evolution of a natural population of explicitly seasonal organisms. Model analyses have revealed relationships between the duration of ontogenesis and the pattern of temporal dynamics in size of an isolated population (i.e., the structure and dimensionality of the chaotic attractors). For nonlinear models of age-structured population dynamics (under long-lasting ontogenesis), increase in the reproductive potential is shown to result in the chaotic attractors whose structure and dimensionality changes in response to variations in the model parameters. When the ontogenesis becomes longer and more complicated, it does not, "on the average", augment the level of chaos in the attractors observed. There are wide enough regions in the space of the birth and death parameter values that provide for windows in the chaotic dynamics where the total or partial regularization occurs.

  12. Propagation of Computer Virus under Human Intervention: A Dynamical Model


    Chenquan Gan; Xiaofan Yang; Wanping Liu; Qingyi Zhu; Xulong Zhang


    This paper examines the propagation behavior of computer virus under human intervention. A dynamical model describing the spread of computer virus, under which a susceptible computer can become recovered directly and an infected computer can become susceptible directly, is proposed. Through a qualitative analysis of this model, it is found that the virus-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number R0≤1, whereas the viral equilibrium is globally asympt...

  13. A Theoretical Approach to Understanding Population Dynamics with Seasonal Developmental Durations (United States)

    Lou, Yijun; Zhao, Xiao-Qiang


    There is a growing body of biological investigations to understand impacts of seasonally changing environmental conditions on population dynamics in various research fields such as single population growth and disease transmission. On the other side, understanding the population dynamics subject to seasonally changing weather conditions plays a fundamental role in predicting the trends of population patterns and disease transmission risks under the scenarios of climate change. With the host-macroparasite interaction as a motivating example, we propose a synthesized approach for investigating the population dynamics subject to seasonal environmental variations from theoretical point of view, where the model development, basic reproduction ratio formulation and computation, and rigorous mathematical analysis are involved. The resultant model with periodic delay presents a novel term related to the rate of change of the developmental duration, bringing new challenges to dynamics analysis. By investigating a periodic semiflow on a suitably chosen phase space, the global dynamics of a threshold type is established: all solutions either go to zero when basic reproduction ratio is less than one, or stabilize at a positive periodic state when the reproduction ratio is greater than one. The synthesized approach developed here is applicable to broader contexts of investigating biological systems with seasonal developmental durations.

  14. Modeling structured population dynamics using data from unmarked individuals (United States)

    Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Zipkin, Elise; Thorson, James T.; See, Kevin; Lynch, Heather J.; Kanno, Yoichiro; Chandler, Richard; Letcher, Benjamin H.; Royle, J. Andrew


    The study of population dynamics requires unbiased, precise estimates of abundance and vital rates that account for the demographic structure inherent in all wildlife and plant populations. Traditionally, these estimates have only been available through approaches that rely on intensive mark–recapture data. We extended recently developed N-mixture models to demonstrate how demographic parameters and abundance can be estimated for structured populations using only stage-structured count data. Our modeling framework can be used to make reliable inferences on abundance as well as recruitment, immigration, stage-specific survival, and detection rates during sampling. We present a range of simulations to illustrate the data requirements, including the number of years and locations necessary for accurate and precise parameter estimates. We apply our modeling framework to a population of northern dusky salamanders (Desmognathus fuscus) in the mid-Atlantic region (USA) and find that the population is unexpectedly declining. Our approach represents a valuable advance in the estimation of population dynamics using multistate data from unmarked individuals and should additionally be useful in the development of integrated models that combine data from intensive (e.g., mark–recapture) and extensive (e.g., counts) data sources.

  15. Population dynamics and climate change: what are the links? (United States)

    Stephenson, Judith; Newman, Karen; Mayhew, Susannah


    Climate change has been described as the biggest global health threat of the 21(st) century. World population is projected to reach 9.1 billion by 2050, with most of this growth in developing countries. While the principal cause of climate change is high consumption in the developed countries, its impact will be greatest on people in the developing world. Climate change and population can be linked through adaptation (reducing vulnerability to the adverse effects of climate change) and, more controversially, through mitigation (reducing the greenhouse gases that cause climate change). The contribution of low-income, high-fertility countries to global carbon emissions has been negligible to date, but is increasing with the economic development that they need to reduce poverty. Rapid population growth endangers human development, provision of basic services and poverty eradication and weakens the capacity of poor communities to adapt to climate change. Significant mass migration is likely to occur in response to climate change and should be regarded as a legitimate response to the effects of climate change. Linking population dynamics with climate change is a sensitive issue, but family planning programmes that respect and protect human rights can bring a remarkable range of benefits. Population dynamics have not been integrated systematically into climate change science. The contribution of population growth, migration, urbanization, ageing and household composition to mitigation and adaptation programmes needs urgent investigation.

  16. Dynamics of Deformable Active Particles under External Flow Field (United States)

    Tarama, Mitsusuke


    In most practical situations, active particles are affected by their environment, for example, by a chemical concentration gradient, light intensity, gravity, or confinement. In particular, the effect of an external flow field is important for particles swimming in a solvent fluid. For deformable active particles such as self-propelled liquid droplets and active vesicles, as well as microorganisms such as euglenas and neutrophils, a general description has been developed by focusing on shape deformation. In this review, we present our recent studies concerning the dynamics of a single active deformable particle under an external flow field. First, a set of model equations of active deformable particles including the effect of a general external flow is introduced. Then, the dynamics under two specific flow profiles is discussed: a linear shear flow, as the simplest example, and a swirl flow. In the latter case, the scattering dynamics of the active deformable particles by the swirl flow is also considered.

  17. Population Dynamics of the Stationary Phase Utilizing the ARGOS Method (United States)

    Algarni, S.; Charest, A. J.; Iannacchione, G. S.


    The Area Recorded Generalized Optical Scattering (ARGOS) approach to light scattering employs large image capture array allowing for a well-defined geometry in which images may be manipulated to extract structure with intensity at a specific scattering wave vector (I(q)) and dynamics with intensity at a specific scattering wave vector over time (I (q,t)). The ARGOS method provides morphological dynamics noninvasively over a long time period and allows for a variety of aqueous conditions. This is important because traditional growth models do not provide for conditions similar to the natural environment. The present study found that the population dynamics of bacteria do not follow a traditional growth model and that the ARGOS method allowed for the observation of bacterial changes in terms of individual particles and population dynamics in real time. The observations of relative total intensity suggest that there is no stationary phase and that the bacterial population demonstrates sinusoidal type patterns consistently subsequent to the log phase growth. These observation were compared to shape changes by modeling fractal dimension and size changes by modeling effective radius.

  18. Nonlinear dynamics of a sliding beam on two supports under ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Abstract. This study deals with the nonlinear dynamics associated with large deformation of a beam sliding on two-knife edge supports under external excitation. The beam is referred to as a Gospodnetic–Frisch-Fay beam, after the researchers who reported its static deformation in closed form. The freedom of the beam to ...

  19. Wideband impedance measurements of DC motors under dynamic load conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Diouf, F.; Buesink, Frederik Johannes Karel; Leferink, Frank Bernardus Johannes; Duval, Fabrice; Bensetti, Mohamed


    One of the principal conducted EMI(electromagnetic interferences) sources of low voltage DC (direct current) motors is the commutation occurring during rotation. In this paper the small-signal impedance of low voltage DC motors under different functioning modes, including the dynamic one is studied

  20. Soil Moisture Dynamics under Corn, Soybean, and Perennial Kura Clover (United States)

    Ochsner, T.; Venterea, R. T.


    Rising global food and energy consumption call for increased agricultural production, whereas rising concerns for environmental quality call for farming systems with more favorable environmental impacts. Improved understanding and management of plant-soil water interactions are central to meeting these twin challenges. The objective of this research was to compare the temporal dynamics of soil moisture under contrasting cropping systems suited for the Midwestern region of the United States. Precipitation, infiltration, drainage, evapotranspiration, soil water storage, and freeze/thaw processes were measured hourly for three years in field plots of continuous corn (Zea mays L.), corn/soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] rotation, and perennial kura clover (Trifolium ambiguum M. Bieb.) in southeastern Minnesota. The evapotranspiration from the perennial clover most closely followed the temporal dynamics of precipitation, resulting in deep drainage which was reduced up to 50% relative to the annual crops. Soil moisture utilization also continued later into the fall under the clover than under the annual crops. In the annual cropping systems, crop sequence influenced the soil moisture dynamics. Soybean following corn and continuous corn exhibited evapotranspiration which was 80 mm less than and deep drainage which was 80 mm greater than that of corn following soybean. These differences occurred primarily during the spring and were associated with differences in early season plant growth between the systems. In the summer, soil moisture depletion was up to 30 mm greater under corn than soybean. Crop residue also played an important role in the soil moisture dynamics. Higher amounts of residue were associated with reduced soil freezing. This presentation will highlight key aspects of the soil moisture dynamics for these contrasting cropping systems across temporal scales ranging from hours to years. The links between soil moisture dynamics, crop yields, and nutrient leaching

  1. Current and Future Dynamics of the Red-Cockaded Woodpecker Population Inhabiting the Savannah River National Environmental Research Park: Managing For Population Growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walters, J.R.; Taylor, T.B.; Daniels, S.J.; Crowder, L.B.; Pridd, J.A.


    Research aimed to study the dynamics of the SRS population of Red-Cockaded woodpecker and compare to those of other populations to identify factors limiting population growth; recruitment clusters were evaluated to determine what properties of individual cavity trees, surrounding habitat and the surrounding landscape might limit occupancy through natural dispersal. A spatial simulation model was used to project expected dispersal rates and population growth under current conditions and compare those estimates to observed dispersal and population growth. Red cockaded woodpecker populations at SRS are stable considering size. Research reveals that closer placement of recruitment clusters to active territories would produce higher growth rates while decreasing management intensity

  2. Modelling the dynamics of feral alfalfa populations and its management implications.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muthukumar V Bagavathiannan

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Feral populations of cultivated crops can pose challenges to novel trait confinement within agricultural landscapes. Simulation models can be helpful in investigating the underlying dynamics of feral populations and determining suitable management options. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We developed a stage-structured matrix population model for roadside feral alfalfa populations occurring in southern Manitoba, Canada. The model accounted for the existence of density-dependence and recruitment subsidy in feral populations. We used the model to investigate the long-term dynamics of feral alfalfa populations, and to evaluate the effectiveness of simulated management strategies such as herbicide application and mowing in controlling feral alfalfa. Results suggest that alfalfa populations occurring in roadside habitats can be persistent and less likely to go extinct under current roadverge management scenarios. Management attempts focused on controlling adult plants alone can be counterproductive due to the presence of density-dependent effects. Targeted herbicide application, which can achieve complete control of seedlings, rosettes and established plants, will be an effective strategy, but the seedbank population may contribute to new recruits. In regions where roadside mowing is regularly practiced, devising a timely mowing strategy (early- to mid-August for southern Manitoba, one that can totally prevent seed production, will be a feasible option for managing feral alfalfa populations. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Feral alfalfa populations can be persistent in roadside habitats. Timely mowing or regular targeted herbicide application will be effective in managing feral alfalfa populations and limit feral-population-mediated gene flow in alfalfa. However, in the context of novel trait confinement, the extent to which feral alfalfa populations need to be managed will be dictated by the tolerance levels established by specific production

  3. Changes in Population Dynamics in Mutualistic versus Pathogenic Viruses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marilyn J. Roossinck


    Full Text Available Although generally regarded as pathogens, viruses can also be mutualists. A number of examples of extreme mutualism (i.e., symbiogenesis have been well studied. Other examples of mutualism are less common, but this is likely because viruses have rarely been thought of as having any beneficial effects on their hosts. The effect of mutualism on the population dynamics of viruses is a topic that has not been addressed experimentally. However, the potential for understanding mutualism and how a virus might become a mutualist may be elucidated by understanding these dynamics.

  4. Changes in population dynamics in mutualistic versus pathogenic viruses. (United States)

    Roossinck, Marilyn J


    Although generally regarded as pathogens, viruses can also be mutualists. A number of examples of extreme mutualism (i.e., symbiogenesis) have been well studied. Other examples of mutualism are less common, but this is likely because viruses have rarely been thought of as having any beneficial effects on their hosts. The effect of mutualism on the population dynamics of viruses is a topic that has not been addressed experimentally. However, the potential for understanding mutualism and how a virus might become a mutualist may be elucidated by understanding these dynamics.

  5. Fracture characterisation of float glass under static and dynamic loading

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Nyounguè


    Full Text Available This paper presents the study of float glass fracture under static and dynamic loading, with the use of experimental and numerical fracture mechanics methods. It has been shown that the value of notch fracture toughness under static loading depends neither on the kind of test nor on specimen geometry. This makes it possible to replace the three-points-bending specimens with the Brazilian discs which are, under certain test conditions, simpler and convenient to study. For both types of specimens, an analysis of the fracture strength, the notch stress intensity factor and fragmentation of specimens was carried out.

  6. How predation and landscape fragmentation affect vole population dynamics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trine Dalkvist

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Microtine species in Fennoscandia display a distinct north-south gradient from regular cycles to stable populations. The gradient has often been attributed to changes in the interactions between microtines and their predators. Although the spatial structure of the environment is known to influence predator-prey dynamics of a wide range of species, it has scarcely been considered in relation to the Fennoscandian gradient. Furthermore, the length of microtine breeding season also displays a north-south gradient. However, little consideration has been given to its role in shaping or generating population cycles. Because these factors covary along the gradient it is difficult to distinguish their effects experimentally in the field. The distinction is here attempted using realistic agent-based modelling. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: By using a spatially explicit computer simulation model based on behavioural and ecological data from the field vole (Microtus agrestis, we generated a number of repeated time series of vole densities whose mean population size and amplitude were measured. Subsequently, these time series were subjected to statistical autoregressive modelling, to investigate the effects on vole population dynamics of making predators more specialised, of altering the breeding season, and increasing the level of habitat fragmentation. We found that fragmentation as well as the presence of specialist predators are necessary for the occurrence of population cycles. Habitat fragmentation and predator assembly jointly determined cycle length and amplitude. Length of vole breeding season had little impact on the oscillations. SIGNIFICANCE: There is good agreement between our results and the experimental work from Fennoscandia, but our results allow distinction of causation that is hard to unravel in field experiments. We hope our results will help understand the reasons for cycle gradients observed in other areas. Our results

  7. A stochastic population model to evaluate Moapa dace (Moapa coriacea) population growth under alternative management scenarios (United States)

    Perry, Russell W.; Jones, Edward; Scoppettone, G. Gary


    The primary goal of this research project was to evaluate the response of Moapa dace (Moapa coriacea) to the potential effects of changes in the amount of available habitat due to human influences such as ground water pumping, barriers to movement, and extirpation of Moapa dace from the mainstem Muddy River. To understand how these factors affect Moapa dace populations and to provide a tool to guide recovery actions, we developed a stochastic model to simulate Moapa dace population dynamics. Specifically, we developed an individual based model (IBM) to incorporate the critical components that drive Moapa dace population dynamics. Our model is composed of several interlinked submodels that describe changes in Moapa dace habitat as translated into carrying capacity, the influence of carrying capacity on demographic rates of dace, and the consequent effect on equilibrium population sizes. The model is spatially explicit and represents the stream network as eight discrete stream segments. The model operates at a monthly time step to incorporate seasonally varying reproduction. Growth rates of individuals vary among stream segments, with growth rates increasing along a headwater to mainstem gradient. Movement and survival of individuals are driven by density-dependent relationships that are influenced by the carrying capacity of each stream segment.

  8. Using dynamic population simulations to extend resource selection analyses and prioritize habitats for conservation (United States)

    Heinrichs, Julie; Aldridge, Cameron L.; O'Donnell, Michael; Schumaker, Nathan


    Prioritizing habitats for conservation is a challenging task, particularly for species with fluctuating populations and seasonally dynamic habitat needs. Although the use of resource selection models to identify and prioritize habitat for conservation is increasingly common, their ability to characterize important long-term habitats for dynamic populations are variable. To examine how habitats might be prioritized differently if resource selection was directly and dynamically linked with population fluctuations and movement limitations among seasonal habitats, we constructed a spatially explicit individual-based model for a dramatically fluctuating population requiring temporally varying resources. Using greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Wyoming as a case study, we used resource selection function maps to guide seasonal movement and habitat selection, but emergent population dynamics and simulated movement limitations modified long-term habitat occupancy. We compared priority habitats in RSF maps to long-term simulated habitat use. We examined the circumstances under which the explicit consideration of movement limitations, in combination with population fluctuations and trends, are likely to alter predictions of important habitats. In doing so, we assessed the future occupancy of protected areas under alternative population and habitat conditions. Habitat prioritizations based on resource selection models alone predicted high use in isolated parcels of habitat and in areas with low connectivity among seasonal habitats. In contrast, results based on more biologically-informed simulations emphasized central and connected areas near high-density populations, sometimes predicted to be low selection value. Dynamic models of habitat use can provide additional biological realism that can extend, and in some cases, contradict habitat use predictions generated from short-term or static resource selection analyses. The explicit inclusion of population

  9. Structured population dynamics: continuous size and discontinuous stage structures. (United States)

    Buffoni, Giuseppe; Pasquali, Sara


    A nonlinear stochastic model for the dynamics of a population with either a continuous size structure or a discontinuous stage structure is formulated in the Eulerian formalism. It takes into account dispersion effects due to stochastic variability of the development process of the individuals. The discrete equations of the numerical approximation are derived, and an analysis of the existence and stability of the equilibrium states is performed. An application to a copepod population is illustrated; numerical results of Eulerian and Lagrangian models are compared.

  10. The population dynamics of bacteria, phage and RM Systems (United States)

    Guet, Calin; Levin, Bruce; Pleska, Maros

    Viruses drive and mediate bacterial evolution as parasites and vectors of horizontal gene transfer, respectively. Temperate bacteriophages, defined by the ability to lysogenize a fraction of hosts and to transmit horizontally as well as vertically in the form of prophages, frequently carry genes that increase fitness or contribute to bacterial pathogenicity. Restriction-modification (RM) systems, which are widely diverse and ubiquitous among bacteria, can prevent infections leading to lysis, but their effect on lysogeny is not clear. We show that RM systems prevent lytic and lysogenic infections to the same extent and therefore represent a molecular barrier to prophage acquisition. Surprisingly, we find that this negative effect can be overcome and even reversed at the population level, as a consequence of dynamic interactions between viruses, hosts and RM systems. Thus the population dynamics of bacteria carrying RM systems impacts bacterial genome-wide evolution. .

  11. [Population dynamics of oligosporous actinomycetes in Chernozem soil]. (United States)

    Zenova, G M; Mikhaĭlova, N V; Zviagintsev, D G


    Investigation of the dynamics of an oligosporous actinomycete population in chernozem soil in the course of succession induced by soil wetting allowed us to reveal the time intervals and conditions optimal for the isolation of particular oligosporous actinomycetes. Saccharopolysporas and microbisporas proved to be best isolated in the early and late stages of succession, whereas actinomycetes of the subgroup Actinomadura and saccharomonosporas could be best isolated in the early and intermediate stages of succession.

  12. Development of paradigms for the dynamics of structured populations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)


    This is a technical progress report on the dynamics of predator-prey systems in a patchy environment. A new phenomenon that might contribute to outbreaks in systems of discrete patches has been determined using a discrete time model with both spatial and age structure. A model for a single species in a patchy environment with migration, local population growth and disasters with in patches has been formulated and a brief description is included.

  13. Scaling up population dynamic processes in a ladybird–aphid

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Houdková, Kateřina; Kindlmann, Pavel


    Roč. 48, - (2006), s. 323-332 ISSN 1438-3896 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GEDIV/06/E013; GA MŠk(CZ) LC06073; GA AV ČR(CZ) IAA6087301; GA ČR(CZ) GD206/03/H034 Keywords : Aphids * Egg window * Ladybirds * Metapopulation * Model * Population dynamics Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 1.534, year: 2006

  14. Integrating population dynamics into mapping human exposure to seismic hazard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Freire


    Full Text Available Disaster risk is not fully characterized without taking into account vulnerability and population exposure. Assessment of earthquake risk in urban areas would benefit from considering the variation of population distribution at more detailed spatial and temporal scales, and from a more explicit integration of this improved demographic data with existing seismic hazard maps. In the present work, "intelligent" dasymetric mapping is used to model population dynamics at high spatial resolution in order to benefit the analysis of spatio-temporal exposure to earthquake hazard in a metropolitan area. These night- and daytime-specific population densities are then classified and combined with seismic intensity levels to derive new spatially-explicit four-class-composite maps of human exposure. The presented approach enables a more thorough assessment of population exposure to earthquake hazard. Results show that there are significantly more people potentially at risk in the daytime period, demonstrating the shifting nature of population exposure in the daily cycle and the need to move beyond conventional residence-based demographic data sources to improve risk analyses. The proposed fine-scale maps of human exposure to seismic intensity are mainly aimed at benefiting visualization and communication of earthquake risk, but can be valuable in all phases of the disaster management process where knowledge of population densities is relevant for decision-making.

  15. Dynamic Pricing in Cloud Manufacturing Systems under Combined Effects of Consumer Structure, Negotiation, and Demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Peng


    Full Text Available In this study, we proposed a game-theory based framework to model the dynamic pricing process in the cloud manufacturing (CMfg system. We considered a service provider (SP, a broker agent (BA, and a dynamic service demander (SD population that is composed of price takers and bargainers in this study. The pricing processes under linear demand and constant elasticity demand were modeled, respectively. The combined effects of SD population structure, negotiation, and demand forms on the SP’s and the BA’s equilibrium prices and expected revenues were examined. We found that the SP’s optimal wholesale price, the BA’s optimal reservation price, and posted price all increase with the proportion of price takers under linear demand but decrease with it under constant elasticity demand. We also found that the BA’s optimal reservation price increases with bargainers’ power no matter under what kind of demand. Through analyzing the participants’ revenues, we showed that a dynamic SD population with a high ratio of price takers would benefit the SP and the BA.

  16. Border Collision Bifurcations in a Generalized Model of Population Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lilia M. Ladino


    Full Text Available We analyze the dynamics of a generalized discrete time population model of a two-stage species with recruitment and capture. This generalization, which is inspired by other approaches and real data that one can find in literature, consists in considering no restriction for the value of the two key parameters appearing in the model, that is, the natural death rate and the mortality rate due to fishing activity. In the more general case the feasibility of the system has been preserved by posing opportune formulas for the piecewise map defining the model. The resulting two-dimensional nonlinear map is not smooth, though continuous, as its definition changes as any border is crossed in the phase plane. Hence, techniques from the mathematical theory of piecewise smooth dynamical systems must be applied to show that, due to the existence of borders, abrupt changes in the dynamic behavior of population sizes and multistability emerge. The main novelty of the present contribution with respect to the previous ones is that, while using real data, richer dynamics are produced, such as fluctuations and multistability. Such new evidences are of great interest in biology since new strategies to preserve the survival of the species can be suggested.

  17. Building the bridge between animal movement and population dynamics. (United States)

    Morales, Juan M; Moorcroft, Paul R; Matthiopoulos, Jason; Frair, Jacqueline L; Kie, John G; Powell, Roger A; Merrill, Evelyn H; Haydon, Daniel T


    While the mechanistic links between animal movement and population dynamics are ecologically obvious, it is much less clear when knowledge of animal movement is a prerequisite for understanding and predicting population dynamics. GPS and other technologies enable detailed tracking of animal location concurrently with acquisition of landscape data and information on individual physiology. These tools can be used to refine our understanding of the mechanistic links between behaviour and individual condition through 'spatially informed' movement models where time allocation to different behaviours affects individual survival and reproduction. For some species, socially informed models that address the movements and average fitness of differently sized groups and how they are affected by fission-fusion processes at relevant temporal scales are required. Furthermore, as most animals revisit some places and avoid others based on their previous experiences, we foresee the incorporation of long-term memory and intention in movement models. The way animals move has important consequences for the degree of mixing that we expect to find both within a population and between individuals of different species. The mixing rate dictates the level of detail required by models to capture the influence of heterogeneity and the dynamics of intra- and interspecific interaction.

  18. Geriatric oncology: problems with under-treatment within this population. (United States)

    Swaminathan, Divya; Swaminathan, Vikram


    We are currently faced with an aging population, which is rapidly growing worldwide. Two thirds of cancer occurs in the over 65-year age group. Societal conceptions from the past have created ageist stereotypes; old age is associated with frailty and the elderly are perceived to be destined for deterioration and loss of independence. Cancer within the elderly is also subject to these stereotypes, with elderly cancer patients considered by some not as likely to recover as younger patients with cancer. We summarise and review the current concerns regarding elderly management and treatments utilised for the management of oncological disease in the elderly, and discuss the impact of under-treatment within this population.

  19. Impact of environmental colored noise in single-species population dynamics (United States)

    Spanio, Tommaso; Hidalgo, Jorge; Muñoz, Miguel A.


    Variability on external conditions has important consequences for the dynamics and the organization of biological systems. In many cases, the characteristic timescale of environmental changes as well as their correlations play a fundamental role in the way living systems adapt and respond to it. A proper mathematical approach to understand population dynamics, thus, requires approaches more refined than, e.g., simple white-noise approximations. To shed further light onto this problem, in this paper we propose a unifying framework based on different analytical and numerical tools available to deal with "colored" environmental noise. In particular, we employ a "unified colored noise approximation" to map the original problem into an effective one with white noise, and then we apply a standard path integral approach to gain analytical understanding. For the sake of specificity, we present our approach using as a guideline a variation of the contact process—which can also be seen as a birth-death process of the Malthus-Verhulst class—where the propagation or birth rate varies stochastically in time. Our approach allows us to tackle in a systematic manner some of the relevant questions concerning population dynamics under environmental variability, such as determining the stationary population density, establishing the conditions under which a population may become extinct, and estimating extinction times. We focus on the emerging phase diagram and its possible phase transitions, underlying how these are affected by the presence of environmental noise time-correlations.

  20. Thermomechanical behavior of EUV pellicle under dynamic exposure conditions (United States)

    Goldfarb, Dario L.; Bloomfield, Max O.; Colburn, Matthew


    The utilization of EUV pellicles as protective layers for EUV masks requires the use of refractory materials that can tolerate large temperature excursions due to the non-negligible absorption of EUV radiation during exposure. Additionally, the mechanical stress induced on the EUV pellicle by the thermal load is dependent on the thermal expansion of the material which can be responsible for transient wrinkling. In this study, an ultrathin (20 nm), free-standing membrane based on silicon nitride is utilized as a learning vehicle to understand the material requirements of EUV pellicles under dynamic exposure conditions that are typical of commercial EUV scanners. First, the nanoscale radiative properties (emissivity) and thermo-mechanical failure temperature of the dielectric film under vacuum conditions are experimentally investigated utilizing a pulsed ArF (193 nm) probing laser. The silicon nitride membrane is found to be marginally compatible with an equivalent 80W EUV source power under steady state illumination conditions. Next, the thermal behavior of the EUV pellicle under dynamic exposure conditions is simulated using a finite element solver. The transient temperature profile and stress distribution across the membrane under stationary state conditions are extracted for an equivalent 60W EUV power source and the pellicle wrinkling due to heating and consequent impact on CD uniformity is estimated. The present work provides a generalized methodology to anticipate the thermal response of a EUV pellicle under realistic exposure conditions.

  1. A mechanistic analysis of density dependence in algal population dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrian eBorlestean


    Full Text Available Population density regulation is a fundamental principle in ecology, but the specific process underlying functional expression of density dependence remains to be fully elucidated. One view contends that patterns of density dependence are largely fixed across a species irrespective of environmental conditions, whereas another is that the strength and expression of density dependence are fundamentally variable depending on the nature of exogenous or endogenous constraints acting on the population. We conducted a study investigating the expression of density dependence in Chlamydomonas spp. grown under a gradient from low to high nutrient density. We predicted that the relationship between per capita growth rate (pgr and population density would vary from concave up to concave down as nutrient density became less limiting and populations experienced weaker density regulation. Contrary to prediction, we found that the relationship between pgr and density became increasingly concave-up as nutrient levels increased. We also found that variation in pgr increased, and pgr levels reached higher maxima in nutrient-limited environments. Most likely, these results are attributable to population growth suppression in environments with high intraspecific competition due to limited nutrient resources. Our results suggest that density regulation is strongly variable depending on exogenous and endogenous processes acting on the population, implying that expression of density dependence depends extensively on local conditions. Additional experimental work should reveal the mechanisms influencing how the expression of density dependence varies across populations through space and time.

  2. [Dynamics and ecological-genetic variability of cytogenetic disturbances in Scots pine populations experiencing technogenic impact]. (United States)

    Udalova, A A; Geras'kin, S A


    Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) populations in the vicinity of nuclear industry facilities were monitored. Aberrant cells occurrence in root meristem of germinated seeds from the impacted pine populations was found to be significantly above the reference level during all six years of observations. In the reference population, changes of cytogenetic disturbances with time appeared to be cyclic while in the impacted populations, technogenic stress was strong enough to destroy the natural regularities. The increase in cytogenetic disturbances was accompanied by growth of fluctuations magnitude; deviations of basic oscillation parameters from the reference values rose along with technogenic impact level. Variability in cytogenetic response increased under technogenic stress. Inter-family component of variability predominated, though its contribution slightly decreased in impacted populations. A tendency for destabilization of a repetition coefficient dynamics was found under technogenic impact. A portion of the seeds was exposed to 15 Gy of gamma-rays, and higher radio-resistance in the impacted populations was observed. In the reference population, a family-related analysis of cytogenetic variability components after acute y-exposure revealed significant contributions of "family" and "germination conditions" factors as well as their interactions. On the contrary, in populations existing under chronic stress, considerable modifications in the structure of ecological-genetic variability were found, their degree increasing with technogenic impact severity.

  3. On the population dynamics of the malaria vector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ngwa, G.A.


    A deterministic differential equation model for the population dynamics of the human malaria vector is derived and studied. Conditions for the existence and stability of a non-zero steady state vector population density are derived. These reveal that a threshold parameter, the vectorial basic reproduction number, exist and the vector can establish itself in the community if and only if this parameter exceeds unity. When a non-zero steady state population density exists, it can be stable but it can also be driven to instability via a Hopf Bifurcation to periodic solutions, as a parameter is varied in parameter space. By considering a special case, an asymptotic perturbation analysis is used to derive the amplitude of the oscillating solutions for the full non-linear system. The present modelling exercise and results show that it is possible to study the population dynamics of disease vectors, and hence oscillatory behaviour as it is often observed in most indirectly transmitted infectious diseases of humans, without recourse to external seasonal forcing. (author)

  4. Drivers of waterfowl population dynamics: from teal to swans (United States)

    Koons, David N.; Gunnarsson, Gunnar; Schmutz, Joel A.; Rotella, Jay J.


    Waterfowl are among the best studied and most extensively monitored species in the world. Given their global importance for sport and subsistence hunting, viewing and ecosystem functioning, great effort has been devoted since the middle part of the 20th century to understanding both the environmental and demographic mechanisms that influence waterfowl population and community dynamics. Here we use comparative approaches to summarise and contrast our understanding ofwaterfowl population dynamics across species as short-lived as the teal Anas discors and A.crecca to those such as the swans Cygnus sp. which have long life-spans. Specifically, we focus on population responses to vital rate perturbations across life history strategies, discuss bottom-up and top-down responses of waterfowlpopulations to global change, and summarise our current understanding of density dependence across waterfowl species. We close by identifying research needs and highlight ways to overcome the challenges of sustainably managing waterfowl populations in the 21st century.

  5. Dynamic control of a bistable wing under aerodynamic loading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bilgen, Onur; Arrieta, Andres F; Friswell, Michael I; Hagedorn, Peter


    The aerodynamic evaluation of a dynamic control technique applied to a bistable unsymmetrical cross-ply composite plate with surface bonded piezoelectric actuators is presented. The plate is clamped on one end to form a low-aspect-ratio wing. A previously proposed dynamic control method, utilizing bending resonance in different stable equilibrium positions, is used to induce snap-through between the two equilibrium states. Compared to quasi-static actuation, driving the bistable plate near resonance using surface bonded piezoelectric materials requires, theoretically, a lower peak excitation voltage to achieve snap-through. First, a set of extensive wind tunnel experiments are conducted on the passive bistable wing to understand the change in the dynamic behavior under various aerodynamic conditions. The passive wing demonstrated sufficient bending stiffness to sustain its shape under aerodynamic loading while preserving the desired bistable behavior. Next, by the use of the resonant control technique, the plate is turned into an effectively monostable structure, or alternatively, both stable equilibrium positions can be reached actively from the other stable equilibrium. Dynamic forward and reverse snap-through is demonstrated in the wind tunnel which shows both the effectiveness of the piezoelectric actuation as well as the load carrying capability of both states of the bistable wing. (paper)

  6. Linking animal population dynamics to alterations in foraging behaviour

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nabe-Nielsen, Jacob; Sibly, Richard; Tougaard, Jakob

    the animals’ ability to forage efficiently and to sustain their energy intake, is influenced by noise emitted from wind turbines and ships. The energy levels in turn affect their survival. The fine-scale movements of the simulated animals was governed by a spatial memory, which allowed the model to produce......Background/Question/Methods The survival of animal populations is strongly influenced by the individuals’ ability to forage efficiently, yet there are few studies of how populations respond when disturbances cause animals to deviate from their natural foraging behavior. Animals that respond...... that are increasingly exposed to noise from ships, wind turbines, etc. In the present study we investigate how the dynamics of the harbor porpoise population (Phocoena phocoena) in the inner Danish waters is influenced by disturbances using an agent- based simulation model. In the model animal movement, and hence...

  7. Dynamic Pricing Competition with Strategic Customers Under Vertical Product Differentiation


    Qian Liu; Dan Zhang


    We consider dynamic pricing competition between two firms offering vertically differentiated products to strategic customers who are intertemporal utility maximizers. We show that price skimming arises as the unique pure-strategy Markov perfect equilibrium in the game under a simple condition. Our results highlight the asymmetric effect of strategic customer behavior on quality-differentiated firms. Even though the profit of either firm decreases as customers become more strategic, the low-qu...

  8. Dynamics and stability of electron plasma vortices under external strain (United States)

    Hurst, N. C.; Danielson, J. R.; Dubin, D. H. E.; Surko, C. M.


    The behavior of an initially axisymmetric 2D ideal vortex under an externally imposed strain flow is studied experimentally. The experiments are carried out using pure electron plasmas confined in a Penning-Malmberg trap; here, the dynamics of the plasma density transverse to the field are directly analogous to the dynamics of vorticity in a 2D ideal fluid. An external strain flow is applied using boundary conditions in a way that is consistent with 2D fluid dynamics. Primarily, elliptical distortions of the vortex core are studied, including dynamical orbits, equilibria, and stability properties. In the case of a quasi-flat vorticity profile, the results are in good agreement with a simple theory of a piecewise elliptical vorticity distribution. For smooth vorticity profiles, deviations from this theory are discussed. Results for time-dependent strain and tests of adiabatic behavior will also be discussed. These experiments may be relevant to many types of quasi-2D fluid behavior, including the dynamics of geophysical fluids, other types of strongly magnetized plasma, and various astrophysical scenarios. This work supported by NSF Grant PHY-1414570 and DOE Grants DE-SC0002451 and DE-SC0016532.

  9. Trends and population dynamics of a Velvet Scoter (Melanitta fusca) population: influence of density dependence and winter climate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hartman, G.; Kölzsch, A.; Larsson, K.; Nordberg, M.; Höglund, J.


    As many seaduck populations around the world have been reported to be in decline, there is an increasing demand for knowledge about intrinsic and extrinsic factors determining population dynamics of these species. In this study, we analyzed long-term dynamics of the summer population of Velvet

  10. [Migration as the main factor of the Russia’s urban population dynamics]. (United States)

    Kurbatova, O L; Yankovsky, N K


    This review summarizes the results of the long-term studies performed at the Institute of General Genetics, Russian Academy of Sciences, in the field of genetic demography of migration processes in Russia and its capital. The main population-genetic parameters of migration and their dynamics in Moscow over a hundred years are given. Sociodemographic and population-genetic implications of migration processes are considered. A model predicting the population gene pool dynamics under migration pressure for genes of different localization (autosomal, sex-linked, and mitochondrial), exemplified by predicting the allele frequency dynamics in the Moscow population of some gene markers, including genes accounting for monogenic pathology and genes associated with resistance to socially significant diseases, are presented. The paper discusses the selective character of migration processes, in particular, processes of emigration, with respect to some genetically significant ethnodemographic traits; the problem of adaptation of migrants; and adaptive strategies of consolidation of ethnoconfessional groups in the megalopolis (compact settlement over the urban territory and positive assortative mating with respect to demographic traits). It was shown that, owing to the intense influx of migrants and gene flows between ethnic groups, the population of the megalopolis is of mixed origin in terms of ethnic, anthropologic, and genetic aspects. The results of the study suggest the necessity to develop a specific strategy of genetic database formation for the population of megalopolises for the purposes of medical genetics and forensic medicine.

  11. Interaction between stocking density and settlement on population dynamics in suspended mussel culture (United States)

    Cubillo, Alhambra M.; Fuentes-Santos, Isabel; Labarta, Uxío


    Population dynamics on mussels growing on suspended culture depend mainly on the balance of several processes: mortality and/or dislodgements from the ropes, recruitment and growth. The negative effect of overcrowding on mussel growth and survival has been widely studied. Other works have addressed the effect of population size on recruitment on bottom beds. This study aims to provide insight into the processes underlying population dynamics. To this purpose, we analyzed the effect of stocking density on mussel growth, survival and seed settlement, and the post-settlement interaction between adults and recruits in suspended culture. The temporal pattern of the variables involved in population dynamics was fitted by GAM models, which in contrast with parametric models does not assume any prior relationships between variables. Our results show that mussel growth and survival depend on a trade-off between competition for resources at high densities and the risk of great settlements in less crowded adult mussel populations. Intracohort competition increased with stocking density, while seed settlement, which increases the risk of mussel dislodgements and leads to intercohort competition, was higher at moderate stocking densities. Post-settlement competitive pressures were driven by total population density and size composition. Both intracohort competition in adults and asymmetric competition between adults and recruits increase with higher adult-recruit ratios. All these density-dependent processes should be considered in future management strategies and research experimental designs.

  12. The dynamics of Listera ovata populations on mineral islands in the Biebrza National Park

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emilia Brzosko


    Full Text Available Observations of two isolated populations of Listera ovata (Oparzelisko and Zabudnik were conducted for 7 years in the Biebrza National Park. The studied populations differed in size, proportion of flowering individuals and effectiveness of reproduction. High number of juvenile individuals in OPA population was noted under conditions more favourable for germination (gaps in vegetation and higher moisture of soil. On the other hand, vegetative reproduction is important in the dynamics of ZAB population. The natural fruiting rate of L. ovata is relatively high (up to 90% and does not seem to be pollinator limited. Some costs of reproduction especially in terms of leaf size were observed. The dormancy is important in the population dynamics. In some years even one third of the population may be dormant. L. ovata produces enough seeds and offspring to maintain or even increase population sizes. These facts, connected with the longevity of individuals,indicate that populations of L. ovata in the Biebrza National Park are not threatened with extinction in the nearest future.

  13. Population Dynamics of Early Human Migration in Britain (United States)

    Vahia, Mayank N.; Ladiwala, Uma; Mahathe, Pavan; Mathur, Deepak


    Background Early human migration is largely determined by geography and human needs. These are both deterministic parameters when small populations move into unoccupied areas where conflicts and large group dynamics are not important. The early period of human migration into the British Isles provides such a laboratory which, because of its relative geographical isolation, may allow some insights into the complex dynamics of early human migration and interaction. Method and Results We developed a simulation code based on human affinity to habitable land, as defined by availability of water sources, altitude, and flatness of land, in choosing the path of migration. Movement of people on the British island over the prehistoric period from their initial entry points was simulated on the basis of data from the megalithic period. Topographical and hydro-shed data from satellite databases was used to define habitability, based on distance from water bodies, flatness of the terrain, and altitude above sea level. We simulated population movement based on assumptions of affinity for more habitable places, with the rate of movement tempered by existing populations. We compared results of our computer simulations with genetic data and show that our simulation can predict fairly accurately the points of contacts between different migratory paths. Such comparison also provides more detailed information about the path of peoples’ movement over ~2000 years before the present era. Conclusions We demonstrate an accurate method to simulate prehistoric movements of people based upon current topographical satellite data. Our findings are validated by recently-available genetic data. Our method may prove useful in determining early human population dynamics even when no genetic information is available. PMID:27148959

  14. Dynamics of a sex-linked deleterious mutation in populations subject to sex reversal. (United States)

    Karhunen, Markku


    The heterogametic sex chromosomes (i.e. mammalian Y and avian W) do not usually recombine with the homogametic sex chromosomes which is known to lead into rapid degeneration of Y and W due to accumulation of deleterious mutations. On the other hand, some 96% of amphibian species have homomorphic, i.e. non-degenerate Y chromosomes. Nicolas Perrin's fountain-of-youth hypothesis states that this is a result of recombination between X and Y chromosomes in sex-reversed individuals. In this study, I model the consequences of such recombination for the dynamics of a deleterious mutation occurring in Y chromosomes. As expected, even relatively low levels of sex reversal help to purge deleterious mutations. However, the population-dynamic consequences of this depend on the type of selection that operates on the population undergoing sex reversal. Under fecundity selection, sex reversal can be beneficial for some parameter values, whereas under survival selection, it seems to be always harmful.

  15. Coupled dynamics of energy budget and population growth of tilapia in response to pulsed waterborne copper. (United States)

    Chen, Wei-Yu; Lin, Chia-Jung; Ju, Yun-Ru; Tsai, Jeng-Wei; Liao, Chung-Min


    The impact of environmentally pulsed metal exposure on population dynamics of aquatic organisms remains poorly understood and highly unpredictable. The purpose of our study was to link a dynamic energy budget model to a toxicokinetic/toxicodynamic (TK/TD). We used the model to investigate tilapia population dynamics in response to pulsed waterborne copper (Cu) assessed with available empirical data. We mechanistically linked the acute and chronic bioassays of pulsed waterborne Cu at the scale of individuals to tilapia populations to capture the interaction between environment and population growth and reproduction. A three-stage matrix population model of larva-juvenile-adult was used to project offspring production through two generations. The estimated median population growth rate (λ) decreased from 1.0419 to 0.9991 under pulsed Cu activities ranging from 1.6 to 2.0 μg L(-1). Our results revealed that the influence on λ was predominately due to changes in the adult survival and larval survival and growth functions. We found that pulsed timing has potential impacts on physiological responses and population abundance. Our study indicated that increasing time intervals between first and second pulses decreased mortality and growth inhibition of tilapia populations, indicating that during long pulsed intervals tilapia may have enough time to recover. Our study concluded that the bioenergetics-based matrix population methodology could be employed in a life-cycle toxicity assessment framework to explore the effect of stage-specific mode-of-actions in population response to pulsed contaminants.

  16. Population and phase dynamics of F=1 spinor condensates in an external magnetic field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Romano, D.R.; Passos, E.J.V. de


    We show that the classical dynamics underlying the mean-field description of homogeneous mixtures of spinor F=1 Bose-Einstein condensates in an external magnetic field is integrable as a consequence of number conservation and axial symmetry in spin space. The population dynamics depends only on the quadratic term of the Zeeman energy and on the strength of the spin-dependent term of the atom-atom interaction. We determine the equilibrium populations as function of the ratio of these two quantities and the miscibility of the hyperfine components in the ground state spinors are thoroughly discussed. Outside the equilibrium, the populations are always a periodic function of time where the periodic motion can be a libration or a rotation. Our studies also indicate the absence of metastability

  17. Maintenance of algal endosymbionts in Paramecium bursaria: a simple model based on population dynamics. (United States)

    Iwai, Sosuke; Fujiwara, Kenji; Tamura, Takuro


    Algal endosymbiosis is widely distributed in eukaryotes including many protists and metazoans, and plays important roles in aquatic ecosystems, combining phagotrophy and phototrophy. To maintain a stable symbiotic relationship, endosymbiont population size in the host must be properly regulated and maintained at a constant level; however, the mechanisms underlying the maintenance of algal endosymbionts are still largely unknown. Here we investigate the population dynamics of the unicellular ciliate Paramecium bursaria and its Chlorella-like algal endosymbiont under various experimental conditions in a simple culture system. Our results suggest that endosymbiont population size in P. bursaria was not regulated by active processes such as cell division coupling between the two organisms, or partitioning of the endosymbionts at host cell division. Regardless, endosymbiont population size was eventually adjusted to a nearly constant level once cells were grown with light and nutrients. To explain this apparent regulation of population size, we propose a simple mechanism based on the different growth properties (specifically the nutrient requirements) of the two organisms, and based from this develop a mathematical model to describe the population dynamics of host and endosymbiont. The proposed mechanism and model may provide a basis for understanding the maintenance of algal endosymbionts. © 2015 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. Mechanistic description of population dynamics using dynamic energy budget theory incorporated into integral projection models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smallegange, I.M.; Caswell, H.; Toorians, M.E.M.; de Roos, A.M.

    1. Integral projection models (IPMs) provide a powerful approach to investigate ecological and rapid evolutionary change in quantitative life-history characteristics and population dynamics. IPMs are constructed from functions that describe the demographic rates – survival, growth and reproduction –

  19. Population dynamics of minimally cognitive individuals. Part I: Introducing knowledge into the dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schmieder, R.W.


    The author presents a new approach for modeling the dynamics of collections of objects with internal structure. Based on the fact that the behavior of an individual in a population is modified by its knowledge of other individuals, a procedure for accounting for knowledge in a population of interacting objects is presented. It is assumed that each object has partial (or complete) knowledge of some (or all) other objects in the population. The dynamical equations for the objects are then modified to include the effects of this pairwise knowledge. This procedure has the effect of projecting out what the population will do from the much larger space of what it could do, i.e., filtering or smoothing the dynamics by replacing the complex detailed physical model with an effective model that produces the behavior of interest. The procedure therefore provides a minimalist approach for obtaining emergent collective behavior. The use of knowledge as a dynamical quantity, and its relationship to statistical mechanics, thermodynamics, information theory, and cognition microstructure are discussed.

  20. Cooperation guided by the coexistence of imitation dynamics and aspiration dynamics in structured populations (United States)

    Xu, Kuangyi; Li, Kun; Cong, Rui; Wang, Long


    In the framework of the evolutionary game theory, two fundamentally different mechanisms, the imitation process and the aspiration-driven dynamics, can be adopted by players to update their strategies. In the former case, individuals imitate the strategy of a more successful peer, while in the latter case individuals change their strategies based on a comparison of payoffs they collect in the game to their own aspiration levels. Here we explore how cooperation evolves for the coexistence of these two dynamics. Intriguingly, cooperation reaches its lowest level when a certain moderate fraction of individuals pick aspiration-level-driven rule while the others choose pairwise comparison rule. Furthermore, when individuals can adjust their update rules besides their strategies, either imitation dynamics or aspiration-driven dynamics will finally take over the entire population, and the stationary cooperation level is determined by the outcome of competition between these two dynamics. We find that appropriate synergetic effects and moderate aspiration level boost the fixation probability of aspiration-driven dynamics most effectively. Our work may be helpful in understanding the cooperative behavior induced by the coexistence of imitation dynamics and aspiration dynamics in the society.

  1. Alternating event processes during lifetimes: population dynamics and statistical inference. (United States)

    Shinohara, Russell T; Sun, Yifei; Wang, Mei-Cheng


    In the literature studying recurrent event data, a large amount of work has been focused on univariate recurrent event processes where the occurrence of each event is treated as a single point in time. There are many applications, however, in which univariate recurrent events are insufficient to characterize the feature of the process because patients experience nontrivial durations associated with each event. This results in an alternating event process where the disease status of a patient alternates between exacerbations and remissions. In this paper, we consider the dynamics of a chronic disease and its associated exacerbation-remission process over two time scales: calendar time and time-since-onset. In particular, over calendar time, we explore population dynamics and the relationship between incidence, prevalence and duration for such alternating event processes. We provide nonparametric estimation techniques for characteristic quantities of the process. In some settings, exacerbation processes are observed from an onset time until death; to account for the relationship between the survival and alternating event processes, nonparametric approaches are developed for estimating exacerbation process over lifetime. By understanding the population dynamics and within-process structure, the paper provide a new and general way to study alternating event processes.

  2. Response to recurrent selection under small effective population size

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Souza Jr. Cláudio Lopes de


    Full Text Available A formula was derived for the prediction of the response to recurrent selection when the effective population size (Ne is small. Usually, responses to selection have been estimated by Rs = icsigma²A/sigmaPh, where i, c, sigma²A, and sigmaPh stand for standardized selection differential, parental control, additive variance, and phenotypic standard deviation, respectively. This expression, however, was derived under the assumption of infinite population size. By introducing the effects of finite population size, the expression derived was Rs = [ic(sigma²A + deltaFD1/sigmaPh] - DFID, where deltaF, ID and D1 are the changes in the inbreeding coefficient, the inbreeding depression, and the covariance of additive and homozygous dominance effects, respectively. Thus, the predicted responses to selection based on these expressions will be smaller than those based on the standard procedures for traits with a high level of dominance such as yield. Responses to five cycles of half-sib selection were predicted for maize by both expressions, considering that 100 progenies were evaluated and 10 S1 progenies were recombined, which corresponds to Ne = 10 for each cycle. The accumulated response to selection estimated with the new expression was about 47 and 28% smaller than that based on the standard expression for yield and plant height, respectively. Thus, the expression usually used overestimates the responses to selection, which is in agreement with reported results, because it does not take into account the effective population size that is generally small in recurrent selection programs

  3. Stochastic population dynamics in spatially extended predator-prey systems (United States)

    Dobramysl, Ulrich; Mobilia, Mauro; Pleimling, Michel; Täuber, Uwe C.


    Spatially extended population dynamics models that incorporate demographic noise serve as case studies for the crucial role of fluctuations and correlations in biological systems. Numerical and analytic tools from non-equilibrium statistical physics capture the stochastic kinetics of these complex interacting many-particle systems beyond rate equation approximations. Including spatial structure and stochastic noise in models for predator-prey competition invalidates the neutral Lotka-Volterra population cycles. Stochastic models yield long-lived erratic oscillations stemming from a resonant amplification mechanism. Spatially extended predator-prey systems display noise-stabilized activity fronts that generate persistent correlations. Fluctuation-induced renormalizations of the oscillation parameters can be analyzed perturbatively via a Doi-Peliti field theory mapping of the master equation; related tools allow detailed characterization of extinction pathways. The critical steady-state and non-equilibrium relaxation dynamics at the predator extinction threshold are governed by the directed percolation universality class. Spatial predation rate variability results in more localized clusters, enhancing both competing species’ population densities. Affixing variable interaction rates to individual particles and allowing for trait inheritance subject to mutations induces fast evolutionary dynamics for the rate distributions. Stochastic spatial variants of three-species competition with ‘rock-paper-scissors’ interactions metaphorically describe cyclic dominance. These models illustrate intimate connections between population dynamics and evolutionary game theory, underscore the role of fluctuations to drive populations toward extinction, and demonstrate how space can support species diversity. Two-dimensional cyclic three-species May-Leonard models are characterized by the emergence of spiraling patterns whose properties are elucidated by a mapping onto a complex

  4. Dynamics of adaptive immunity against phage in bacterial populations (United States)

    Bradde, Serena; Vucelja, Marija; Tesileanu, Tiberiu; Balasubramanian, Vijay

    The CRISPR (clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats) mechanism allows bacteria to adaptively defend against phages by acquiring short genomic sequences (spacers) that target specific sequences in the viral genome. We propose a population dynamical model where immunity can be both acquired and lost. The model predicts regimes where bacterial and phage populations can co-exist, others where the populations oscillate, and still others where one population is driven to extinction. Our model considers two key parameters: (1) ease of acquisition and (2) spacer effectiveness in conferring immunity. Analytical calculations and numerical simulations show that if spacers differ mainly in ease of acquisition, or if the probability of acquiring them is sufficiently high, bacteria develop a diverse population of spacers. On the other hand, if spacers differ mainly in their effectiveness, their final distribution will be highly peaked, akin to a ``winner-take-all'' scenario, leading to a specialized spacer distribution. Bacteria can interpolate between these limiting behaviors by actively tuning their overall acquisition rate.

  5. Effects of rainfall on Culex mosquito population dynamics. (United States)

    Valdez, L D; Sibona, G J; Diaz, L A; Contigiani, M S; Condat, C A


    The dynamics of a mosquito population depends heavily on climatic variables such as temperature and precipitation. Since climate change models predict that global warming will impact on the frequency and intensity of rainfall, it is important to understand how these variables affect the mosquito populations. We present a model of the dynamics of a Culex quinquefasciatus mosquito population that incorporates the effect of rainfall and use it to study the influence of the number of rainy days and the mean monthly precipitation on the maximum yearly abundance of mosquitoes M max . Additionally, using a fracturing process, we investigate the influence of the variability in daily rainfall on M max . We find that, given a constant value of monthly precipitation, there is an optimum number of rainy days for which M max is a maximum. On the other hand, we show that increasing daily rainfall variability reduces the dependence of M max on the number of rainy days, leading also to a higher abundance of mosquitoes for the case of low mean monthly precipitation. Finally, we explore the effect of the rainfall in the months preceding the wettest season, and we obtain that a regimen with high precipitations throughout the year and a higher variability tends to advance slightly the time at which the peak mosquito abundance occurs, but could significantly change the total mosquito abundance in a year. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Population dynamics of minimally cognitive individuals. Part 2: Dynamics of time-dependent knowledge

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schmieder, R.W.


    The dynamical principle for a population of interacting individuals with mutual pairwise knowledge, presented by the author in a previous paper for the case of constant knowledge, is extended to include the possibility that the knowledge is time-dependent. Several mechanisms are presented by which the mutual knowledge, represented by a matrix K, can be altered, leading to dynamical equations for K(t). The author presents various examples of the transient and long time asymptotic behavior of K(t) for populations of relatively isolated individuals interacting infrequently in local binary collisions. Among the effects observed in the numerical experiments are knowledge diffusion, learning transients, and fluctuating equilibria. This approach will be most appropriate to small populations of complex individuals such as simple animals, robots, computer networks, agent-mediated traffic, simple ecosystems, and games. Evidence of metastable states and intermittent switching leads them to envision a spectroscopy associated with such transitions that is independent of the specific physical individuals and the population. Such spectra may serve as good lumped descriptors of the collective emergent behavior of large classes of populations in which mutual knowledge is an important part of the dynamics.

  7. The within-host population dynamics of Mycobacterium tuberculosis vary with treatment efficacy. (United States)

    Trauner, Andrej; Liu, Qingyun; Via, Laura E; Liu, Xin; Ruan, Xianglin; Liang, Lili; Shi, Huimin; Chen, Ying; Wang, Ziling; Liang, Ruixia; Zhang, Wei; Wei, Wang; Gao, Jingcai; Sun, Gang; Brites, Daniela; England, Kathleen; Zhang, Guolong; Gagneux, Sebastien; Barry, Clifton E; Gao, Qian


    Combination therapy is one of the most effective tools for limiting the emergence of drug resistance in pathogens. Despite the widespread adoption of combination therapy across diseases, drug resistance rates continue to rise, leading to failing treatment regimens. The mechanisms underlying treatment failure are well studied, but the processes governing successful combination therapy are poorly understood. We address this question by studying the population dynamics of Mycobacterium tuberculosis within tuberculosis patients undergoing treatment with different combinations of antibiotics. By combining very deep whole genome sequencing (~1000-fold genome-wide coverage) with sequential sputum sampling, we were able to detect transient genetic diversity driven by the apparently continuous turnover of minor alleles, which could serve as the source of drug-resistant bacteria. However, we report that treatment efficacy has a clear impact on the population dynamics: sufficient drug pressure bears a clear signature of purifying selection leading to apparent genetic stability. In contrast, M. tuberculosis populations subject to less drug pressure show markedly different dynamics, including cases of acquisition of additional drug resistance. Our findings show that for a pathogen like M. tuberculosis, which is well adapted to the human host, purifying selection constrains the evolutionary trajectory to resistance in effectively treated individuals. Nonetheless, we also report a continuous turnover of minor variants, which could give rise to the emergence of drug resistance in cases of drug pressure weakening. Monitoring bacterial population dynamics could therefore provide an informative metric for assessing the efficacy of novel drug combinations.

  8. Efficient logistic regression designs under an imperfect population identifier. (United States)

    Albert, Paul S; Liu, Aiyi; Nansel, Tonja


    Motivated by actual study designs, this article considers efficient logistic regression designs where the population is identified with a binary test that is subject to diagnostic error. We consider the case where the imperfect test is obtained on all participants, while the gold standard test is measured on a small chosen subsample. Under maximum-likelihood estimation, we evaluate the optimal design in terms of sample selection as well as verification. We show that there may be substantial efficiency gains by choosing a small percentage of individuals who test negative on the imperfect test for inclusion in the sample (e.g., verifying 90% test-positive cases). We also show that a two-stage design may be a good practical alternative to a fixed design in some situations. Under optimal and nearly optimal designs, we compare maximum-likelihood and semi-parametric efficient estimators under correct and misspecified models with simulations. The methodology is illustrated with an analysis from a diabetes behavioral intervention trial. © 2013, The International Biometric Society.

  9. Exploiting Fast-Variables to Understand Population Dynamics and Evolution (United States)

    Constable, George W. A.; McKane, Alan J.


    We describe a continuous-time modelling framework for biological population dynamics that accounts for demographic noise. In the spirit of the methodology used by statistical physicists, transitions between the states of the system are caused by individual events while the dynamics are described in terms of the time-evolution of a probability density function. In general, the application of the diffusion approximation still leaves a description that is quite complex. However, in many biological applications one or more of the processes happen slowly relative to the system's other processes, and the dynamics can be approximated as occurring within a slow low-dimensional subspace. We review these time-scale separation arguments and analyse the more simple stochastic dynamics that result in a number of cases. We stress that it is important to retain the demographic noise derived in this way, and emphasise this point by showing that it can alter the direction of selection compared to the prediction made from an analysis of the corresponding deterministic model.

  10. Population dynamics in Asia and the Pacific: implications for development. (United States)


    This article is an excerpt from a recently published article on interactions between population and development in the "Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific, 1993." Topics include the dynamics of change (growth, age structure, sex composition, migration); implications for specific development issues (population and education, population and health, population and employment, and population and the environment); and policy approaches (slowing growth, spatial distribution, and the role of women). The Asian focus is on population policy and fertility declines. Different conditions specific to each country and varying degrees of program success give rise to country-specific differences in rates of growth and declines in fertility. Population compositions and pressures on spatial distribution differ among countries. Development demands differ for education, health, employment, and environmental controls. A common feature is that population is integrated into social and economic development policies. The links between population and the environment are recognized and will be integrated into policy as knowledge emerges. The ESCAP region has about 58% of world population, and fertility has declined to 3.1 children per woman. Fertility declines do not result in demonstrable changes in the rate of population growth, because the proportion of reproductive age women has increased and will continue to do so until 2010. Reductions in fertility are balanced by mortality declines. The annual rate of increase has gradually slowed, however the absolute size is still huge. The goal of the Bali Declaration of 1992 is to reach replacement level fertility of 2.2 children per woman by 2010 in the ESCAP region. The UN median variant projects 2.4 children per woman by 2010. The countries unlikely to reach replacement level fertility are India, the Philippines, Vietnam, Bangladesh, and Pakistan. Age structure will determine the need for services. For example, South Asia will

  11. Population Dynamics of Patients with Bacterial Resistance in Hospital Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leilei Qu


    Full Text Available During the past decades, the increase of antibiotic resistance has become a major concern worldwide. The researchers found that superbugs with new type of resistance genes (NDM-1 have two aspects of transmission characteristics; the first is that the antibiotic resistance genes can horizontally transfer among bacteria, and the other is that the superbugs can spread between humans through direct contact. Based on these two transmission mechanisms, we study the dynamics of population in hospital environment where superbugs exist. In this paper, we build three mathematic models to illustrate the dynamics of patients with bacterial resistance in hospital environment. The models are analyzed using stability theory of differential equations. Positive equilibrium points of the system are investigated and their stability analysis is carried out. Moreover, the numerical simulation of the proposed model is also performed which supports the theoretical findings.

  12. Modeling bacterial population growth from stochastic single-cell dynamics. (United States)

    Alonso, Antonio A; Molina, Ignacio; Theodoropoulos, Constantinos


    A few bacterial cells may be sufficient to produce a food-borne illness outbreak, provided that they are capable of adapting and proliferating on a food matrix. This is why any quantitative health risk assessment policy must incorporate methods to accurately predict the growth of bacterial populations from a small number of pathogens. In this aim, mathematical models have become a powerful tool. Unfortunately, at low cell concentrations, standard deterministic models fail to predict the fate of the population, essentially because the heterogeneity between individuals becomes relevant. In this work, a stochastic differential equation (SDE) model is proposed to describe variability within single-cell growth and division and to simulate population growth from a given initial number of individuals. We provide evidence of the model ability to explain the observed distributions of times to division, including the lag time produced by the adaptation to the environment, by comparing model predictions with experiments from the literature for Escherichia coli, Listeria innocua, and Salmonella enterica. The model is shown to accurately predict experimental growth population dynamics for both small and large microbial populations. The use of stochastic models for the estimation of parameters to successfully fit experimental data is a particularly challenging problem. For instance, if Monte Carlo methods are employed to model the required distributions of times to division, the parameter estimation problem can become numerically intractable. We overcame this limitation by converting the stochastic description to a partial differential equation (backward Kolmogorov) instead, which relates to the distribution of division times. Contrary to previous stochastic formulations based on random parameters, the present model is capable of explaining the variability observed in populations that result from the growth of a small number of initial cells as well as the lack of it compared to

  13. Dynamic response of multiple nanobeam system under a moving nanoparticle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shahrokh Hosseini Hashemi


    Full Text Available In this article, nonlocal continuum based model of multiple nanobeam system (MNBS under a moving nanoparticle is investigated using Eringen’s nonlocal theory. Beam layers are assumed to be coupled by winkler elastic medium and the nonlocal Euler-Bernoulli beam theory is used to model each layer of beam. The Hamilton’s principle, Eigen function technique and the Laplace transform method are employed to solve the governing equations. Analytical solutions of the transverse displacements for MNBs with simply supported boundary condition are presented for double layered and three layered MNBSs. For higher number of layers, the governing set of equations is solved numerically and the results are presented. This study shows that small-scale parameter has a significant effect on dynamic response of MNBS under a moving nanoparticle. Sensitivity of dynamical deflection to variation of nonlocal parameter, stiffness of Winkler elastic medium and number of nanobeams are presented in nondimensional form for each layer. Keywords: Dynamic response, Analytical solution, Moving particle, Nanobeam, Multi-layered nanobeam

  14. Effect of support conditions on structural response under dynamic loading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akram, T.; Memon, S.A.


    In design practice, dynamic structural analysis is carried out with base of structure considered as fixed; this means that foundation is placed on rock like soil material. While conducting this type of analyses the role of foundation and soil behaviour is totally neglected. The actions in members and loads transferred at foundation level obtained in this manner do not depict the true structural behaviour. FEM (Finite Element Methods) analysis where both superstructure and foundation soil are coupled together is quite complicated and expensive for design environments. A simplified model is required to depict dynamic response of structures with foundations based on flexible soils. The primary purpose of this research is to compare the superstructure dynamic responses of structural systems with fixed base to that of simple soil model base. The selected simple soil model is to be suitable for use in a design environment to give more realistic results. For this purpose building models are idealized with various heights and structural systems in both 2D (Two Dimensional) and 3D (Three Dimensional) space. These models are then provided with visco-elastic supports representing three soil bearing capacities and the analysis results are compared to that of fixed supports models. The results indicate that fixed support system underestimates natural time period of the structures. Dynamic behavior and force response of visco-elastic support is different from fixed support model. Fixed support models result in over designed base columns and under designed beams. (author)

  15. Plasmodium vivax population structure and transmission dynamics in Sabah Malaysia. (United States)

    Abdullah, Noor Rain; Barber, Bridget E; William, Timothy; Norahmad, Nor Azrina; Satsu, Umi Rubiah; Muniandy, Prem Kumar; Ismail, Zakiah; Grigg, Matthew J; Jelip, Jenarun; Piera, Kim; von Seidlein, Lorenz; Yeo, Tsin W; Anstey, Nicholas M; Price, Ric N; Auburn, Sarah


    Despite significant progress in the control of malaria in Malaysia, the complex transmission dynamics of P. vivax continue to challenge national efforts to achieve elimination. To assess the impact of ongoing interventions on P. vivax transmission dynamics in Sabah, we genotyped 9 short tandem repeat markers in a total of 97 isolates (8 recurrences) from across Sabah, with a focus on two districts, Kota Marudu (KM, n = 24) and Kota Kinabalu (KK, n = 21), over a 2 year period. STRUCTURE analysis on the Sabah-wide dataset demonstrated multiple sub-populations. Significant differentiation (F ST  = 0.243) was observed between KM and KK, located just 130 Km apart. Consistent with low endemic transmission, infection complexity was modest in both KM (mean MOI  = 1.38) and KK (mean MOI  = 1.19). However, population diversity remained moderate (H E  = 0.583 in KM and H E  = 0.667 in KK). Temporal trends revealed clonal expansions reflecting epidemic transmission dynamics. The haplotypes of these isolates declined in frequency over time, but persisted at low frequency throughout the study duration. A diverse array of low frequency isolates were detected in both KM and KK, some likely reflecting remnants of previous expansions. In accordance with clonal expansions, high levels of Linkage Disequilibrium (I A (S) >0.5 [PSabah's shrinking P. vivax population appears to have rendered this low endemic setting vulnerable to epidemic expansions. Migration may play an important role in the introduction of new parasite strains leading to epidemic expansions, with important implications for malaria elimination.

  16. [On the relation between encounter rate and population density: Are classical models of population dynamics justified?]. (United States)

    Nedorezov, L V


    A stochastic model of migrations on a lattice and with discrete time is considered. It is assumed that space is homogenous with respect to its properties and during one time step every individual (independently of local population numbers) can migrate to nearest nodes of lattice with equal probabilities. It is also assumed that population size remains constant during certain time interval of computer experiments. The following variants of estimation of encounter rate between individuals are considered: when for the fixed time moments every individual in every node of lattice interacts with all other individuals in the node; when individuals can stay in nodes independently, or can be involved in groups in two, three or four individuals. For each variant of interactions between individuals, average value (with respect to space and time) is computed for various values of population size. The samples obtained were compared with respective functions of classic models of isolated population dynamics: Verhulst model, Gompertz model, Svirezhev model, and theta-logistic model. Parameters of functions were calculated with least square method. Analyses of deviations were performed using Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Lilliefors test, Shapiro-Wilk test, and other statistical tests. It is shown that from traditional point of view there are no correspondence between the encounter rate and functions describing effects of self-regulatory mechanisms on population dynamics. Best fitting of samples was obtained with Verhulst and theta-logistic models when using the dataset resulted from the situation when every individual in the node interacts with all other individuals.

  17. Do farming practices influence population dynamics of rodents?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Massawe, A W; Rwamugira, W; Leirs, Herwig


    A capture-mark-recapture study was conducted in crop fields in Morogoro, Tanzania, to investigate how the population dynamics of multimammate field rats, Mastomys natalensis, was influenced by the commonly practised land preparation methods and cropping systems. Two land preparation methods (trac...... practices. In maize fields in Tanzania, the crop is most susceptible to damage by M. natalensis in the first 2 weeks after planting, and therefore, lower densities of rodents will result into lower crop damage in tractor ploughed fields....

  18. Spatial dynamics of a periodic population model with dispersal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jin Yu; Zhao Xiaoqiang


    This paper is devoted to the study of spatial dynamics of a class of periodic integro-differential equations which describe the population dispersal process via a dispersal kernel. By appealing to the theory of asymptotic speeds of spread and travelling waves for monotonic periodic semiflows, we establish the existence of the spreading speed c * and the nonexistence of continuous periodic travelling wave solutions with wave speed c * . We also prove the existence of left-continuous periodic travelling waves with wave speed c ≥ c * . In the autonomous case, the continuity of monotonic wave profiles with wave speed c ≥ c * is obtained

  19. Display of high dynamic range images under varying viewing conditions (United States)

    Borer, Tim


    Recent demonstrations of high dynamic range (HDR) television have shown that superb images are possible. With the emergence of an HDR television production standard (ITU-R Recommendation BT.2100) last year, HDR television production is poised to take off. However research to date has focused principally on HDR image display only under "dark" viewing conditions. HDR television will need to be displayed at varying brightness and under varying illumination (for example to view sport in daytime or on mobile devices). We know, from common practice with conventional TV, that the rendering intent (gamma) should change under brighter conditions, although this is poorly quantified. For HDR the need to render images under varying conditions is all the more acute. This paper seeks to explore the issues surrounding image display under varying conditions. It also describes how visual adaptation is affected by display brightness, surround illumination, screen size and viewing distance. Existing experimental results are presented and extended to try to quantify these effects. Using the experimental results it is described how HDR images may be displayed so that they are perceptually equivalent under different viewing conditions. A new interpretation of the experimental results is reported, yielding a new, luminance invariant model for the appropriate display "gamma". In this way the consistency of HDR image reproduction should be improved, thereby better maintaining "creative intent" in television.

  20. Outward migration may alter population dynamics and income inequality (United States)

    Shayegh, Soheil


    Climate change impacts may drive affected populations to migrate. However, migration decisions in response to climate change could have broader effects on population dynamics in affected regions. Here, I model the effect of climate change on fertility rates, income inequality, and human capital accumulation in developing countries, focusing on the instrumental role of migration as a key adaptation mechanism. In particular, I investigate how climate-induced migration in developing countries will affect those who do not migrate. I find that holding all else constant, climate change raises the return on acquiring skills, because skilled individuals have greater migration opportunities than unskilled individuals. In response to this change in incentives, parents may choose to invest more in education and have fewer children. This may ultimately reduce local income inequality, partially offsetting some of the damages of climate change for low-income individuals who do not migrate.

  1. State-dependent neutral delay equations from population dynamics. (United States)

    Barbarossa, M V; Hadeler, K P; Kuttler, C


    A novel class of state-dependent delay equations is derived from the balance laws of age-structured population dynamics, assuming that birth rates and death rates, as functions of age, are piece-wise constant and that the length of the juvenile phase depends on the total adult population size. The resulting class of equations includes also neutral delay equations. All these equations are very different from the standard delay equations with state-dependent delay since the balance laws require non-linear correction factors. These equations can be written as systems for two variables consisting of an ordinary differential equation (ODE) and a generalized shift, a form suitable for numerical calculations. It is shown that the neutral equation (and the corresponding ODE--shift system) is a limiting case of a system of two standard delay equations.

  2. Modeling the Underlying Dynamics of the Spread of Crime (United States)

    McMillon, David; Simon, Carl P.; Morenoff, Jeffrey


    The spread of crime is a complex, dynamic process that calls for a systems level approach. Here, we build and analyze a series of dynamical systems models of the spread of crime, imprisonment and recidivism, using only abstract transition parameters. To find the general patterns among these parameters—patterns that are independent of the underlying particulars—we compute analytic expressions for the equilibria and for the tipping points between high-crime and low-crime equilibria in these models. We use these expressions to examine, in particular, the effects of longer prison terms and of increased incarceration rates on the prevalence of crime, with a follow-up analysis on the effects of a Three-Strike Policy. PMID:24694545

  3. Numerical solution of dynamic equilibrium models under Poisson uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Posch, Olaf; Trimborn, Timo


    We propose a simple and powerful numerical algorithm to compute the transition process in continuous-time dynamic equilibrium models with rare events. In this paper we transform the dynamic system of stochastic differential equations into a system of functional differential equations...... of the retarded type. We apply the Waveform Relaxation algorithm, i.e., we provide a guess of the policy function and solve the resulting system of (deterministic) ordinary differential equations by standard techniques. For parametric restrictions, analytical solutions to the stochastic growth model and a novel...... solution to Lucas' endogenous growth model under Poisson uncertainty are used to compute the exact numerical error. We show how (potential) catastrophic events such as rare natural disasters substantially affect the economic decisions of households....


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Maier


    Full Text Available In this study, we investigate the new and standardized European system of supervisory called Solvency II. In essence, asymmetric distribution of information between policyholder and insurer triggered this new regulation which aims at better protecting policyholders. Its three-pillar model is about to challenge both, insurers as well as policyholders. The first pillar includes quantitative aspects, the second pillar contains qualitative aspects and the third pillar comprises market transparency and reporting obligations. Underwriting risks, the default risk of a bank and market risks can be identified for the dynamic hybrid. Solvency II covers all these risks in the first pillar and insurers shall deposit sufficient risk-bearing capital. In our analysis, we first identify the dynamic hybrid specific risks under the Solvency II regime und then develop product modifications to reduce this risk.

  5. Biologically Driven Differences in Decomposition Dynamics Under Changing Ecosystems (Invited) (United States)

    Grandy, S.


    Predicting the effects of environmental changes on soil organic matter dynamics remains difficult. Here I explore the possibility that differences in decomposition and soil organic matter dynamics are due in part to links between litter decomposition processes, changes in litter chemistry, and variation in decomposer communities. I explored these relationships under three types of ecosystem changes: 1) N enrichment of forest ecosystems; 2) elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations in forest ecosystems; and 3) agricultural land-use intensification. My overarching hypothesis was that litter mass loss and litter chemistry would vary under different environmental conditions, and those differences would correlate with ecosystem-specific variations in decomposer community structure and function. In three separate field experiments, I found strong evidence that decomposer communities influenced the chemistry of decomposing litter. In a related laboratory study I found that the presence of the oribatid mite Scheloribates moestus Banks (Acari: Oribatida) can substantially change litter decomposition dynamics and the molecular chemistry of decomposing litter. Most current conceptual models estimate changes in litter chemistry over the course of decomposition from initial litter chemistry and the extent of mass loss. These models suggest consistent and predictable changes in the chemical structure of organic matter during decomposition and do not explicitly consider the potential effects of variations in decomposer community structure on decomposition. In contrast, my results show that differences in decomposer communities lead to changes in litter chemistry during decomposition. Accurately predicting management effects on litter chemistry. and thus also soil organic matter dynamics, through time may require accounting for the degree to which variations in decomposer community composition influence organic matter chemistry.

  6. Cracks dynamics under tensional stress - a DEM approach (United States)

    Debski, Wojciech; Klejment, Piotr; Kosmala, Alicja; Foltyn, Natalia; Szpindler, Maciej


    Breaking and fragmentation of solid materials is an extremely complex process involving scales ranging from an atomic scale (breaking inter-atomic bounds) up to thousands of kilometers in case of catastrophic earthquakes (in energy scale it ranges from single eV up to 1024 J). Such a large scale span of breaking processes opens lot of questions like, for example, scaling of breaking processes, existence of factors controlling final size of broken area, existence of precursors, dynamics of fragmentation, to name a few. The classical approach to study breaking process at seismological scales, i.e., physical processes in earthquake foci, is essentially based on two factors: seismic data (mostly) and the continuum mechanics (including the linear fracture mechanics). Such approach has been gratefully successful in developing kinematic (first) and dynamic (recently) models of seismic rupture and explaining many of earthquake features observed all around the globe. However, such approach will sooner or latter face a limitation due to a limited information content of seismic data and inherit limitations of the fracture mechanics principles. A way of avoiding this expected limitation is turning an attention towards a well established in physics method of computational simulations - a powerful branch of contemporary physics. In this presentation we discuss preliminary results of analysis of fracturing dynamics under external tensional forces using the Discrete Element Method approach. We demonstrate that even under a very simplified tensional conditions, the fragmentation dynamics is a very complex process, including multi-fracturing, spontaneous fracture generation and healing, etc. We also emphasis a role of material heterogeneity on the fragmentation process.

  7. Dynamic performance of slender suspension footbridges under eccentric walking dynamic loads (United States)

    Huang, Ming-Hui; Thambiratnam, David P.; Perera, Nimal J.


    This paper treats the vibration of slender suspension footbridges caused by eccentrically distributed walking dynamic loads. A suspension footbridge model with reverse profiled cables in both the vertical and horizontal planes was used in this conceptual study, while SAP2000 package is adopted in the numerical analysis. The dynamic behaviour of slender footbridges under walking dynamic loads is simulated by resonant vibration caused by synchronous excitations. It is found that slender suspension footbridges with shallow cable profiles often have coupled vibration modes such as coupled lateral-torsional or coupled torsional-lateral modes. When these coupled vibration modes are excited by walking pedestrians, excessive lateral vibration can be induced. Results also show that the effects of the reverse profiled cables on the dynamic performance in different vibration modes are complex. Reverse profiled cables in the horizontal plane can significantly suppress the lateral vibration in coupled lateral-torsional modes, but slightly increase the lateral vibration in coupled torsional-lateral modes.

  8. Host-Parasite Interactions and Population Dynamics of Rock Ptarmigan. (United States)

    Stenkewitz, Ute; Nielsen, Ólafur K; Skírnisson, Karl; Stefánsson, Gunnar


    evidence that E. muta through time-lag in prevalence with respect to host population size and by showing significant relations with host body condition, mortality, and fecundity could destabilize ptarmigan population dynamics in Iceland.

  9. Population Dynamics in the Capitalist World-Economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela Danna


    Full Text Available World-systems analysis has given scant attention to population dynamics. Overlooked are large-scale macrohistorical population trends and their microhistorical foundation on procreative decisions-decisions which are taken by a historically changing subject of procreation: local elders or other authorities, head(s of the household, couples, and women. The discipline of demography is also not as helpful as it could be, given its basis in modernization theory, which fails to recognize intentionality in reproduction in pre-capitalist societies. It assumes a model of "demographic transition" from a state of "natural fertility" to a state of conscious family planning, while also treating mortality as independent of fertility Marxism recognized the importance of population as a source of labor for profit and capital accumulation. With its tools Sydney Coontz developed a demand for labor theory explaining in particular the decrease in the birth rate in England and the United States at the turn of the century This theory was f urther developed by anthropologists of the "mode of product ion and population pat terns " who, with other authors, offer useful theories and insights to advance world-historical research on population. This article explores connections between population dy namics and world-systems analysis. I explore six key questions at different levels of analysis, including: 1 Are there world-systems ' imperatives concerning human reproduction?; 2 Do human reproduction imperatives differ across world-systems.'?; 3 How do the (eventual systems requirements get transmitted to households and individuals'?; 4 Why do people have children.'?; 5 Who is the subject of procreation decisions'?; and 6 How is the number of offspring chosen? Finally, I offer guidelines for applying the six questions to the capitalist world-economy.

  10. Effect of the alien invasive bivalve Corbicula fluminea on the nutrient dynamics under climate change scenarios (United States)

    Coelho, J. P.; Lillebø, A. I.; Crespo, D.; Leston, S.; Dolbeth, M.


    The main aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of the alien invasive bivalve Corbicula fluminea (Müller, 1774) in the nutrient dynamics of temperate estuarine systems (oligohaline areas) under climate change scenarios. The scenarios simulated shifts in climatic conditions, following salinity (0 or 5) and temperature (24 or 30 °C) changes, usual during drought and heat wave events. The effect of the individual size/age (different size classes with fixed biomass) and density (various densities of <1 cm clams) on the bioturbation-associated nutrient dynamics were also evaluated under an 18-day laboratory experimental setup. Results highlight the significant effect of C. fluminea on the ecosystem nutrient dynamics, enhancing the efflux of both phosphate and dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) from the sediments to the water column. Both drought and heat wave events will have an impact on the DIN dynamics within C. fluminea colonized systems, favouring a higher NH4-N efflux. The population structure of C. fluminea will have a decisive role on the impact of the species, with stronger nutrient effluxes associated with a predominantly juvenile population structure.

  11. The tank's dynamic response under nuclear explosion blast wave

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu Mei; Wang Lianghou; Li Xiaotian; Yu Suyuan; Zhang Zhengming; Wan Li


    To weapons and equipment, blast wave is the primary destructive factor. In this paper, taken the real model-59 tank as an example, we try to transform the damage estimation problem into computing a fluid structure interaction problem with finite element method. The response of tank under nuclear explosion blast wave is computed with the general-coupling algorithm. Also, the dynamical interaction of blast wave and tank is reflected in real time. The deformation of each part of the tank is worked out and the result corresponds to the real-measured data. (authors)

  12. Representation of dynamical stimuli in populations of threshold neurons.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tatjana Tchumatchenko


    Full Text Available Many sensory or cognitive events are associated with dynamic current modulations in cortical neurons. This raises an urgent demand for tractable model approaches addressing the merits and limits of potential encoding strategies. Yet, current theoretical approaches addressing the response to mean- and variance-encoded stimuli rarely provide complete response functions for both modes of encoding in the presence of correlated noise. Here, we investigate the neuronal population response to dynamical modifications of the mean or variance of the synaptic bombardment using an alternative threshold model framework. In the variance and mean channel, we provide explicit expressions for the linear and non-linear frequency response functions in the presence of correlated noise and use them to derive population rate response to step-like stimuli. For mean-encoded signals, we find that the complete response function depends only on the temporal width of the input correlation function, but not on other functional specifics. Furthermore, we show that both mean- and variance-encoded signals can relay high-frequency inputs, and in both schemes step-like changes can be detected instantaneously. Finally, we obtain the pairwise spike correlation function and the spike triggered average from the linear mean-evoked response function. These results provide a maximally tractable limiting case that complements and extends previous results obtained in the integrate and fire framework.

  13. Survival and Population Dynamics of the Marabou Stork in an Isolated Population, Swaziland (United States)

    Monadjem, Ara; Kane, Adam; Botha, Andre; Dalton, Desire; Kotze, Antoinette


    Investigating the ecology of long lived birds is particularly challenging owing to the time scales involved. Here an analysis is presented of a long term study of the survival and population dynamics of the marabou stork (Leptoptilos crumeniferus), a wide ranging scavenging bird from Sub-Saharan Africa. Using resightings data of tagged nestlings and free flying birds we show that the stork population can be divided into three general life stages with unique survival probabilities and fecundities. Fecundity of the storks is inversely related to rainfall during their breeding season. Corroborative evidence for a metapopulation structure is discussed highlighting the impact of the Swaziland birds on the ecology of the species in the broader region. The importance of tag loss or illegibility over time is highlighted. Clearly, any attempt at conserving a species will require a detailed understanding of its population structure, of the sort examined here. PMID:23029517

  14. Plasmodium vivax Population Structure and Transmission Dynamics in Sabah Malaysia (United States)

    Abdullah, Noor Rain; Barber, Bridget E.; William, Timothy; Norahmad, Nor Azrina; Satsu, Umi Rubiah; Muniandy, Prem Kumar; Ismail, Zakiah; Grigg, Matthew J.; Jelip, Jenarun; Piera, Kim; von Seidlein, Lorenz; Yeo, Tsin W.; Anstey, Nicholas M.; Price, Ric N.; Auburn, Sarah


    Despite significant progress in the control of malaria in Malaysia, the complex transmission dynamics of P. vivax continue to challenge national efforts to achieve elimination. To assess the impact of ongoing interventions on P. vivax transmission dynamics in Sabah, we genotyped 9 short tandem repeat markers in a total of 97 isolates (8 recurrences) from across Sabah, with a focus on two districts, Kota Marudu (KM, n = 24) and Kota Kinabalu (KK, n = 21), over a 2 year period. STRUCTURE analysis on the Sabah-wide dataset demonstrated multiple sub-populations. Significant differentiation (F ST  = 0.243) was observed between KM and KK, located just 130 Km apart. Consistent with low endemic transmission, infection complexity was modest in both KM (mean MOI  = 1.38) and KK (mean MOI  = 1.19). However, population diversity remained moderate (H E  = 0.583 in KM and H E  = 0.667 in KK). Temporal trends revealed clonal expansions reflecting epidemic transmission dynamics. The haplotypes of these isolates declined in frequency over time, but persisted at low frequency throughout the study duration. A diverse array of low frequency isolates were detected in both KM and KK, some likely reflecting remnants of previous expansions. In accordance with clonal expansions, high levels of Linkage Disequilibrium (I A S >0.5 [Ppopulation appears to have rendered this low endemic setting vulnerable to epidemic expansions. Migration may play an important role in the introduction of new parasite strains leading to epidemic expansions, with important implications for malaria elimination. PMID:24358203

  15. Dynamics of spins in semiconductor quantum wells under drift

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Idrish Miah, M.


    The dynamics of spins in semiconductor quantum wells under applied electric bias has been investigated by photoluminescence (PL) spectroscopy. The bias-dependent polarization of PL (P PL ) was measured at different temperatures. The P PL was found to decay with an enhancement of increasing the strength of the negative bias, with an exception occurred for a low value of the negative bias. The P PL was also found to depend on the temperature. The P PL in the presence of a transverse magnetic field was also studied. The results showed that P PL in the magnetic field oscillates under an applied bias, demonstrating that the dephasing of electron spin occurs during the drift transport in semiconductor quantum wells.

  16. Dynamics of spins in semiconductor quantum wells under drift

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Idrish Miah, M., E-mail: [Nanoscale Science and Technology Centre, Griffith University, Nathan, Brisbane, QLD 4111 (Australia); School of Biomolecular and Physical Sciences, Griffith University, Nathan, Brisbane, QLD 4111 (Australia); Department of Physics, University of Chittagong, Chittagong 4331 (Bangladesh)


    The dynamics of spins in semiconductor quantum wells under applied electric bias has been investigated by photoluminescence (PL) spectroscopy. The bias-dependent polarization of PL (P{sub PL}) was measured at different temperatures. The P{sub PL} was found to decay with an enhancement of increasing the strength of the negative bias, with an exception occurred for a low value of the negative bias. The P{sub PL} was also found to depend on the temperature. The P{sub PL} in the presence of a transverse magnetic field was also studied. The results showed that P{sub PL} in the magnetic field oscillates under an applied bias, demonstrating that the dephasing of electron spin occurs during the drift transport in semiconductor quantum wells.

  17. Seasonal dynamics of snail populations in coastal Kenya: Model calibration and snail control (United States)

    Gurarie, D.; King, C. H.; Yoon, N.; Wang, X.; Alsallaq, R.


    A proper snail population model is important for accurately predicting Schistosoma transmission. Field data shows that the overall snail population and that of shedding snails have a strong pattern of seasonal variation. Because human hosts are infected by the cercariae released from shedding snails, the abundance of the snail population sets ultimate limits on human infection. For developing a predictive dynamic model of schistosome infection and control strategies we need realistic snail population dynamics. Here we propose two such models based on underlying environmental factors and snail population biology. The models consist of two-stage (young-adult) populations with resource-dependent reproduction, survival, maturation. The key input in the system is seasonal rainfall which creates snail habitats and resources (small vegetation). The models were tested, calibrated and validated using dataset collected in Msambweni (coastal Kenya). Seasonal rainfall in Msambweni is highly variable with intermittent wet - dry seasons. Typical snail patterns follow precipitation peaks with 2-4-month time-lag. Our models are able to reproduce such seasonal variability over extended period of time (3-year study). We applied them to explore the optimal seasonal timing for implementing snail control.

  18. Modeling the population dynamics of Culex quinquefasciatus (Diptera: Culcidae), along an elevational gradient in Hawaii (United States)

    Ahumada, Jorge A.; LaPointe, Dennis; Samuel, Michael D.


    We present a population model to understand the effects of temperature and rainfall on the population dynamics of the southern house mosquito, Culex quinquefasciatus Say, along an elevational gradient in Hawaii. We use a novel approach to model the effects of temperature on population growth by dynamically incorporating developmental rate into the transition matrix, by using physiological ages of immatures instead of chronological age or stages. We also model the effects of rainfall on survival of immatures as the cumulative number of days below a certain rain threshold. Finally, we incorporate density dependence into the model as competition between immatures within breeding sites. Our model predicts the upper altitudinal distributions of Cx. quinquefasciatus on the Big Island of Hawaii for self-sustaining mosquito and migrating summer sink populations at 1,475 and 1,715 m above sea level, respectively. Our model predicts that mosquitoes at lower elevations can grow under a broader range of rainfall parameters than middle and high elevation populations. Density dependence in conjunction with the seasonal forcing imposed by temperature and rain creates cycles in the dynamics of the population that peak in the summer and early fall. The model provides a reasonable fit to the available data on mosquito abundance for the east side of Mauna Loa, Hawaii. The predictions of our model indicate the importance of abiotic conditions on mosquito dynamics and have important implications for the management of diseases transmitted by Cx. quinquefasciatus in Hawaii and elsewhere.

  19. Frog population viability under present and future climate conditions: a Bayesian state-space approach. (United States)

    McCaffery, R; Solonen, A; Crone, E


    1. World-wide extinctions of amphibians are at the forefront of the biodiversity crisis, with climate change figuring prominently as a potential driver of continued amphibian decline. As in other taxa, changes in both the mean and variability of climate conditions may affect amphibian populations in complex, unpredictable ways. In western North America, climate models predict a reduced duration and extent of mountain snowpack and increased variability in precipitation, which may have consequences for amphibians inhabiting montane ecosystems. 2. We used Bayesian capture-recapture methods to estimate survival and transition probabilities in a high-elevation population of the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) over 10 years and related these rates to interannual variation in peak snowpack. Then, we forecasted frog population growth and viability under a range of scenarios with varying levels of change in mean and variance in snowpack. 3. Over a range of future scenarios, changes in mean snowpack had a greater effect on viability than changes in the variance of snowpack, with forecasts largely predicting an increase in population viability. Population models based on snowpack during our study period predicted a declining population. 4. Although mean conditions were more important for viability than variance, for a given mean snowpack depth, increases in variability could change a population from increasing to decreasing. Therefore, the influence of changing climate variability on populations should be accounted for in predictive models. The Bayesian modelling framework allows for the explicit characterization of uncertainty in parameter estimates and ecological forecasts, and thus provides a natural approach for examining relative contributions of mean and variability in climatic variables to population dynamics. 5. Longevity and heterogeneous habitat may contribute to the potential for this amphibian species to be resilient to increased climatic variation, and

  20. Interaction Between Ecohydrologic Dynamics and Microtopographic Variability Under Climate Change (United States)

    Le, Phong V. V.; Kumar, Praveen


    Vegetation acclimation resulting from elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration, along with response to increased temperature and altered rainfall pattern, is expected to result in emergent behavior in ecologic and hydrologic functions. We hypothesize that microtopographic variability, which are landscape features typically of the length scale of the order of meters, such as topographic depressions, will play an important role in determining this dynamics by altering the persistence and variability of moisture. To investigate these emergent ecohydrologic dynamics, we develop a modeling framework, Dhara, which explicitly incorporates the control of microtopographic variability on vegetation, moisture, and energy dynamics. The intensive computational demand from such a modeling framework that allows coupling of multilayer modeling of the soil-vegetation continuum with 3-D surface-subsurface flow processes is addressed using hybrid CPU-GPU parallel computing framework. The study is performed for different climate change scenarios for an intensively managed agricultural landscape in central Illinois, USA, which is dominated by row-crop agriculture, primarily soybean (Glycine max) and maize (Zea mays). We show that rising CO2 concentration will decrease evapotranspiration, thus increasing soil moisture and surface water ponding in topographic depressions. However, increased atmospheric demand from higher air temperature overcomes this conservative behavior resulting in a net increase of evapotranspiration, leading to reduction in both soil moisture storage and persistence of ponding. These results shed light on the linkage between vegetation acclimation under climate change and microtopography variability controls on ecohydrologic processes.

  1. Cone Algorithm of Spinning Vehicles under Dynamic Coning Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuang-biao Zhang


    Full Text Available Due to the fact that attitude error of vehicles has an intense trend of divergence when vehicles undergo worsening coning environment, in this paper, the model of dynamic coning environment is derived firstly. Then, through investigation of the effect on Euler attitude algorithm for the equivalency of traditional attitude algorithm, it is found that attitude error is actually the roll angle error including drifting error and oscillating error, which is induced directly by dynamic coning environment and further affects the pitch angle and yaw angle through transferring. Based on definition of the cone frame and cone attitude, a cone algorithm is proposed by rotation relationship to calculate cone attitude, and the relationship between cone attitude and Euler attitude of spinning vehicle is established. Through numerical simulations with different conditions of dynamic coning environment, it is shown that the induced error of Euler attitude fluctuates by the variation of precession and nutation, especially by that of nutation, and the oscillating frequency of roll angle error is twice that of pitch angle error and yaw angle error. In addition, the rotation angle is more competent to describe the spinning process of vehicles under coning environment than Euler angle gamma, and the real pitch angle and yaw angle are calculated finally.

  2. HAWT dynamic stall response asymmetries under yawed flow conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schreck, S.; Robinson, M.; Hand, M.; Simms, D.


    Horizontal axis wind turbines can experience significant time varying aerodynamic loads, potentially causing adverse effects on structures, mechanical components, and power production. As designers attempt lighter and more flexible wind energy machines, greater accuracy and robustness will become even more critical in future aerodynamics models. Aerodynamics modeling advances, in turn, will rely on more thorough comprehension of the three-dimensional, unsteady, vortical flows that dominate wind turbine blade aerodynamics under high load conditions. To experimentally characterize these flows, turbine blade surface pressures were acquired at multiple span locations via the NREL Phase IV Unsteady Aerodynamics Experiment. Surface pressures and associated normal force histories were used to characterize dynamic stall vortex kinematics and normal force amplification. Dynamic stall vortices and normal force amplification were confirmed to occur in response to angle of attack excursions above the static stall threshold. Stall vortices occupied approximately one-half of the blade span and persisted for nearly one-fourth of the blade rotation cycle. Stall vortex convection varied along the blade, resulting in dramatic deformation of the vortex. Presence and deformation of the dynamic stall vortex produced corresponding amplification of normal forces. Analyses revealed consistent alterations to vortex kinematics in response to changes in reduced frequency, span location, and yaw error. Finally, vortex structures and kinematics not previously documented for wind turbine blades were isolated.

  3. Multi-level opinion dynamics under bounded confidence. (United States)

    Kou, Gang; Zhao, Yiyi; Peng, Yi; Shi, Yong


    Opinion dynamics focuses on the opinion evolution in a social community. Recently, some models of continuous opinion dynamics under bounded confidence were proposed by Deffuant and Krause, et al. In the literature, agents were generally assumed to have a homogeneous confidence level. This paper proposes an extended model for a group of agents with heterogeneous confidence levels. First, a social differentiation theory is introduced and a social group is divided into opinion subgroups with distinct confidence levels. Second, a multi-level heterogeneous opinion formation model is formulated under the framework of bounded confidence. Finally, computer simulations are conducted to study the collective opinion evolution, focusing on three key factors: the fractions of heterogeneous agents, the initial opinions, and the group size. The simulation results demonstrate that the number of final opinions depends on the fraction of close-minded agents when the group size and the initial opinions are fixed; the final opinions converge more easily when the initial opinions are closer; and the number of final opinions can be approximately modeled by a linear increasing function of the group size and the increasing rate is the fraction of close-minded agents.

  4. Incremental Dynamic Analysis of Koyna Dam under Repeated Ground Motions (United States)

    Zainab Nik Azizan, Nik; Majid, Taksiah A.; Nazri, Fadzli Mohamed; Maity, Damodar; Abdullah, Junaidah


    This paper discovers the incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) of concrete gravity dam under single and repeated earthquake loadings to identify the limit state of the dam. Seven ground motions with horizontal and vertical direction as seismic input considered in the nonlinear dynamic analysis based on the real repeated earthquake in the worldwide. All the ground motions convert to respond spectrum and scaled according to the developed elastic respond spectrum in order to match the characteristic of the ground motion to the soil type. The scaled was depends on the fundamental period, T1 of the dam. The Koyna dam has been selected as a case study for the purpose of the analysis by assuming that no sliding and rigid foundation, has been estimated. IDA curves for Koyna dam developed for single and repeated ground motions and the performance level of the dam identifies. The IDA curve of repeated ground motion shown stiffer rather than single ground motion. The ultimate state displacement for a single event is 45.59mm and decreased to 39.33mm under repeated events which are decreased about 14%. This showed that the performance level of the dam based on seismic loadings depend on ground motion pattern.

  5. Dynamics of Under Ice Boundary Layers Below Floating Ice Shelves (United States)

    Shaw, W. J.; Stanton, T. P.


    Pine Island Glacier (PIG), a major outlet stream of the Western Antarctic Ice Sheet, has dramatically thinned and accelerated in recent decades. It is believed that a weakening of the floating portion of the glacier, known as the ice shelf, due to increased ocean thermal forcing is a primary cause of the observed increasing discharge of PIG. In order to better understand the controls on the exchange of heat between the PIG shelf and the underlying ocean cavity, a numerical model, MITgcm, has been configured to study the dynamics of the sloping, meltwater-forced, buoyant boundary layer below the ice shelf A 2-D approximation allows for high vertical resolution that resolves well the under shelf ocean boundary layer. We are particularly interested in the dynamical balance between buoyancy along the sloping ice shelf base, drag, and entrainment/detrainment and the associated feedback of basal melting of the ice shelf. Numerical results will be compared to in-situ observations obtained through a field campaign in 2013.

  6. A consumer-resource approach to the density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism (United States)

    Holland, J. Nathaniel; DeAngelis, Donald L.


    Like predation and competition, mutualism is now recognized as a consumer resource (C-R) interaction, including, in particular, bi-directional (e.g., coral, plant- mycorrhizae) and uni-directional (e.g., ant-plant defense, plant-pollinator) C-R mutualisms. Here, we develop general theory for the density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism based on the C-R mechanism of interspecific interaction. To test the influence of C-R interactions on the dynamics and stability of bi- and uni-directional C-R mutualisms, we developed simple models that link consumer functional response of one mutualistic species with the resources supplied by another. Phase-plane analyses show that the ecological dynamics of C-R mutualisms are stable in general. Most transient behavior leads to an equilibrium of mutualistic coexistence, at which both species densities are greater than in the absence of interactions. However, due to the basic nature of C-R interactions, certain density-dependent conditions can lead to C-R dynamics characteristic of predator-prey interactions, in which one species overexploits and causes the other to go extinct. Consistent with empirical phenomena, these results suggest that the C-R interaction can provide a broad mechanism for understanding density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism. By unifying predation, competition, and mutualism under the common ecological framework of consumer-resource theory, we may also gain a better understanding of the universal features of interspecific interactions in general.

  7. Spiking, Bursting, and Population Dynamics in a Network of Growth Transform Neurons. (United States)

    Gangopadhyay, Ahana; Chakrabartty, Shantanu


    This paper investigates the dynamical properties of a network of neurons, each of which implements an asynchronous mapping based on polynomial growth transforms. In the first part of this paper, we present a geometric approach for visualizing the dynamics of the network where each of the neurons traverses a trajectory in a dual optimization space, whereas the network itself traverses a trajectory in an equivalent primal optimization space. We show that as the network learns to solve basic classification tasks, different choices of primal-dual mapping produce unique but interpretable neural dynamics like noise shaping, spiking, and bursting. While the proposed framework is general enough, in this paper, we demonstrate its use for designing support vector machines (SVMs) that exhibit noise-shaping properties similar to those of ΣΔ modulators, and for designing SVMs that learn to encode information using spikes and bursts. It is demonstrated that the emergent switching, spiking, and burst dynamics produced by each neuron encodes its respective margin of separation from a classification hyperplane whose parameters are encoded by the network population dynamics. We believe that the proposed growth transform neuron model and the underlying geometric framework could serve as an important tool to connect well-established machine learning algorithms like SVMs to neuromorphic principles like spiking, bursting, population encoding, and noise shaping.

  8. World Trade, disease and Florida's animal populations. The changing dynamics. (United States)

    Coffman, L M


    One of Florida's three leading economic industries is agriculture. Agriculture feeds and enhances the lives of millions of people in Florida, the United States, and the entire world. Agriculture in Florida results in more than $6 billion in farm cash receipts, employment for more than 60,000 people a month, more than $18 billion in farm-related economic activity and stretches from the farm gate to the state's supermarkets with an impact of nearly $45 billion. The domestic and wild animal populations of Florida, our unique relationship to the Caribbean, Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico, Central and South America, as well as tourism, diverse human population growth and immigration, all add to the complexity of an environment capable of establishing many animals, animal pests and diseases not native to the United States. Never before have the dynamics of disease control involved as much challenge and diversity. Is the balance at risk, or is the risk over-balanced? Can science, economics and politics blend to maintain this balance? How will the balance affect world trade, disease control and the animal populations of Florida?

  9. Designing hunting regulation under population uncertainty and self-reporting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Frank; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark


    A number of methods exist for estimating the size of animal populations. All methods generate an uncertain estimate of population size, and have different properties, which can be taken into account when designing regulation. We consider hunting regulation when the population size is uncertain...... and when the self-reported bag is used to estimate the population size. The properties of a population tax and a tax on self-reported bag are analyzed and we begin by considering a baseline situation with full certainty and no use of self-reporting for population size estimation. Here individual hunters...... self-report a bag on zero and a population tax alone can secure an optimum. Next we show that when facing uncertain population size, a risk-averse hunter will self-report part of the bag to reduce the uncertain population tax payment, making both tax instruments necessary for reaching an optimum...

  10. The population and evolutionary dynamics of homologous gene recombination in bacterial populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruce R Levin


    Full Text Available In bacteria, recombination is a rare event, not a part of the reproductive process. Nevertheless, recombination -- broadly defined to include the acquisition of genes from external sources, i.e., horizontal gene transfer (HGT -- plays a central role as a source of variation for adaptive evolution in many species of bacteria. Much of niche expansion, resistance to antibiotics and other environmental stresses, virulence, and other characteristics that make bacteria interesting and problematic, is achieved through the expression of genes and genetic elements obtained from other populations of bacteria of the same and different species, as well as from eukaryotes and archaea. While recombination of homologous genes among members of the same species has played a central role in the development of the genetics and molecular biology of bacteria, the contribution of homologous gene recombination (HGR to bacterial evolution is not at all clear. Also, not so clear are the selective pressures responsible for the evolution and maintenance of transformation, the only bacteria-encoded form of HGR. Using a semi-stochastic simulation of mutation, recombination, and selection within bacterial populations and competition between populations, we explore (1 the contribution of HGR to the rate of adaptive evolution in these populations and (2 the conditions under which HGR will provide a bacterial population a selective advantage over non-recombining or more slowly recombining populations. The results of our simulation indicate that, under broad conditions: (1 HGR occurring at rates in the range anticipated for bacteria like Streptococcus pneumoniae, Escherichia coli, Haemophilus influenzae, and Bacillus subtilis will accelerate the rate at which a population adapts to environmental conditions; (2 once established in a population, selection for this capacity to increase rates of adaptive evolution can maintain bacteria-encoded mechanisms of recombination and prevent

  11. Considering transient population dynamics in the conservation of slow life-history species: An application to the sandhill crane (United States)

    Gerber, Brian D.; Kendall, William L.


    The importance of transient dynamics of structured populations is increasingly recognized in ecology, yet these implications are not largely considered in conservation practices. We investigate transient and long-term population dynamics to demonstrate the process and utility of incorporating transient dynamics into conservation research and to better understand the population management of slow life-history species; these species can be theoretically highly sensitive to short- and long-term transient effects. We are specifically interested in the effects of anthropogenic removal of individuals from populations, such as caused by harvest, poaching, translocation, or incidental take. We use the sandhill crane (Grus canadensis) as an exemplar species; it is long-lived, has low reproduction, late maturity, and multiple populations are subject to sport harvest. We found sandhill cranes to have extremely high potential, but low likelihood for transient dynamics, even when the population is being harvested. The typically low population growth rate of slow life-history species appears to buffer against many perturbations causing large transient effects. Transient dynamics will dominate population trajectories of these species when stage structures are highly biased towards the younger and non-reproducing individuals, a situation that may be rare in established populations of long-lived animals. However, short-term transient population growth can be highly sensitive to vital rates that are relatively insensitive under equilibrium, suggesting that stage structure should be known if perturbation analysis is used to identify effective conservation strategies. For populations of slow life-history species that are not prone to large perturbations to their most productive individuals, population growth may be approximated by equilibrium dynamics.

  12. Dynamics of Dark-Fly Genome Under Environmental Selections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minako Izutsu


    Full Text Available Environmental adaptation is one of the most fundamental features of organisms. Modern genome science has identified some genes associated with adaptive traits of organisms, and has provided insights into environmental adaptation and evolution. However, how genes contribute to adaptive traits and how traits are selected under an environment in the course of evolution remain mostly unclear. To approach these issues, we utilize “Dark-fly”, a Drosophila melanogaster line maintained in constant dark conditions for more than 60 years. Our previous analysis identified 220,000 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs in the Dark-fly genome, but did not clarify which SNPs of Dark-fly are truly adaptive for living in the dark. We found here that Dark-fly dominated over the wild-type fly in a mixed population under dark conditions, and based on this domination we designed an experiment for genome reselection to identify adaptive genes of Dark-fly. For this experiment, large mixed populations of Dark-fly and the wild-type fly were maintained in light conditions or in dark conditions, and the frequencies of Dark-fly SNPs were compared between these populations across the whole genome. We thereby detected condition-dependent selections toward approximately 6% of the genome. In addition, we observed the time-course trajectory of SNP frequency in the mixed populations through generations 0, 22, and 49, which resulted in notable categorization of the selected SNPs into three types with different combinations of positive and negative selections. Our data provided a list of about 100 strong candidate genes associated with the adaptive traits of Dark-fly.

  13. Dynamical Response of Networks Under External Perturbations: Exact Results (United States)

    Chinellato, David D.; Epstein, Irving R.; Braha, Dan; Bar-Yam, Yaneer; de Aguiar, Marcus A. M.


    We give exact statistical distributions for the dynamic response of influence networks subjected to external perturbations. We consider networks whose nodes have two internal states labeled 0 and 1. We let nodes be frozen in state 0, in state 1, and the remaining nodes change by adopting the state of a connected node with a fixed probability per time step. The frozen nodes can be interpreted as external perturbations to the subnetwork of free nodes. Analytically extending and to be smaller than 1 enables modeling the case of weak coupling. We solve the dynamical equations exactly for fully connected networks, obtaining the equilibrium distribution, transition probabilities between any two states and the characteristic time to equilibration. Our exact results are excellent approximations for other topologies, including random, regular lattice, scale-free and small world networks, when the numbers of fixed nodes are adjusted to take account of the effect of topology on coupling to the environment. This model can describe a variety of complex systems, from magnetic spins to social networks to population genetics, and was recently applied as a framework for early warning signals for real-world self-organized economic market crises.

  14. On learning dynamics underlying the evolution of learning rules. (United States)

    Dridi, Slimane; Lehmann, Laurent


    In order to understand the development of non-genetically encoded actions during an animal's lifespan, it is necessary to analyze the dynamics and evolution of learning rules producing behavior. Owing to the intrinsic stochastic and frequency-dependent nature of learning dynamics, these rules are often studied in evolutionary biology via agent-based computer simulations. In this paper, we show that stochastic approximation theory can help to qualitatively understand learning dynamics and formulate analytical models for the evolution of learning rules. We consider a population of individuals repeatedly interacting during their lifespan, and where the stage game faced by the individuals fluctuates according to an environmental stochastic process. Individuals adjust their behavioral actions according to learning rules belonging to the class of experience-weighted attraction learning mechanisms, which includes standard reinforcement and Bayesian learning as special cases. We use stochastic approximation theory in order to derive differential equations governing action play probabilities, which turn out to have qualitative features of mutator-selection equations. We then perform agent-based simulations to find the conditions where the deterministic approximation is closest to the original stochastic learning process for standard 2-action 2-player fluctuating games, where interaction between learning rules and preference reversal may occur. Finally, we analyze a simplified model for the evolution of learning in a producer-scrounger game, which shows that the exploration rate can interact in a non-intuitive way with other features of co-evolving learning rules. Overall, our analyses illustrate the usefulness of applying stochastic approximation theory in the study of animal learning. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Conformational dependence of hemoglobin reactivity under high viscosity conditions: the role of solvent slaved dynamics. (United States)

    Samuni, Uri; Roche, Camille J; Dantsker, David; Friedman, Joel M


    The concept of protein dynamic states is introduced. This concept is based on (i) protein dynamics being organized hierarchically with respect to solvent slaving and (ii) which tier of dynamics is operative over the time window of a given measurement. The protein dynamic state concept is used to analyze the kinetic phases derived from the recombination of carbon monoxide to sol-gel-encapsulated human adult hemoglobin (HbA) and select recombinant mutants. The temperature-dependent measurements are made under very high viscosity conditions obtained by bathing the samples in an excess of glycerol. The results are consistent with a given tier of solvent slaved dynamics becoming operative at a time delay (with respect to the onset of the measurement) that is primarily solvent- and temperature-dependent. However, the functional consequences of the dynamics are protein- and conformation-specific. The kinetic traces from both equilibrium populations and trapped allosteric intermediates show a consistent progression that exposes the role of both conformation and hydration in the control of reactivity. Iron-zinc symmetric hybrid forms of HbA are used to show the dramatic difference between the kinetic patterns for T state alpha and beta subunits. The overall results support a model for allostery in HbA in which the ligand-binding-induced transition from the deoxy T state to the high -affinity R state proceeds through a progression of T state intermediates.

  16. A Stochastic Framework for Modeling the Population Dynamics of Convective Clouds (United States)

    Hagos, Samson; Feng, Zhe; Plant, Robert S.; Houze, Robert A.; Xiao, Heng


    A stochastic prognostic framework for modeling the population dynamics of convective clouds and representing them in climate models is proposed. The framework follows the nonequilibrium statistical mechanical approach to constructing a master equation for representing the evolution of the number of convective cells of a specific size and their associated cloud-base mass flux, given a large-scale forcing. In this framework, referred to as STOchastic framework for Modeling Population dynamics of convective clouds (STOMP), the evolution of convective cell size is predicted from three key characteristics of convective cells: (i) the probability of growth, (ii) the probability of decay, and (iii) the cloud-base mass flux. STOMP models are constructed and evaluated against CPOL radar observations at Darwin and convection permitting model (CPM) simulations. Multiple models are constructed under various assumptions regarding these three key parameters and the realisms of these models are evaluated. It is shown that in a model where convective plumes prefer to aggregate spatially and the cloud-base mass flux is a nonlinear function of convective cell area, the mass flux manifests a recharge-discharge behavior under steady forcing. Such a model also produces observed behavior of convective cell populations and CPM simulated cloud-base mass flux variability under diurnally varying forcing. In addition to its use in developing understanding of convection processes and the controls on convective cell size distributions, this modeling framework is also designed to serve as a nonequilibrium closure formulations for spectral mass flux parameterizations.

  17. Design improvement and dynamic finite element analysis of novel ITI dental implant under dynamic chewing loads. (United States)

    Cheng, Yung-Chang; Lin, Deng-Huei; Jiang, Cho-Pei; Lee, Shyh-Yuan


    The main aim of this article was to introduce the application of a uniform design for experimental methods to drop the micromotion of a novel ITI dental implant model under the dynamic loads. Combining the characteristics of the traditional ITI and Nano-Tite implants, a new implant with concave holes has been constructed. Compared to the traditional ITI dental implant model, the micromotion of the new dental implant model was significantly reduced by explicit dynamic finite element analysis. From uniform design of experiments, the dynamic finite element analysis method was applied to caluculated the maximum micromotion of the full model. Finally, the chief design in all the experiment simulations which cause the minimum micromotion is picked as the advanced model of the design. Related to the original design, which was associated with a micromotion of 45.11 μm, the micromotion of the improved version was 31.37 μm, for an improvement rate of 30.5%.

  18. Forecasting fish stock dynamics under climate change: Baltic herring (Clupea harengus) as a case study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bartolino, V.; Margonski, P.; Lindegren, Martin


    Climate change and anthropogenic disturbances may affect marine populations and ecosystems through multiple pathways. In this study we present a framework in which we integrate existing models and knowledge on basic regulatory processes to investigate the potential impact of future scenarios...... of the herring stock only in combination with sustainable fisheries management (i.e., Fmsy). Conversely, projections of herring spawning stock biomass (SSB) were generally low under elevated fishing mortality levels (Fhigh), comparable with those experienced by the stock during the 1990s. Under the combined...... effects of long-term warming and high fishing mortality uncertainty in herring SSB projections was higher and increasing for the duration of the forecasts, suggesting a synergistic effect of fishery exploitation and climate forcing on fish populations dynamics. Our study shows that simulations of long...

  19. Artificial bee colony algorithm with dynamic multi-population (United States)

    Zhang, Ming; Ji, Zhicheng; Wang, Yan


    To improve the convergence rate and make a balance between the global search and local turning abilities, this paper proposes a decentralized form of artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm with dynamic multi-populations by means of fuzzy C-means (FCM) clustering. Each subpopulation periodically enlarges with the same size during the search process, and the overlapping individuals among different subareas work for delivering information acting as exploring the search space with diffusion of solutions. Moreover, a Gaussian-based search equation with redefined local attractor is proposed to further accelerate the diffusion of the best solution and guide the search towards potential areas. Experimental results on a set of benchmarks demonstrate the competitive performance of our proposed approach.

  20. Mean-field games with logistic population dynamics

    KAUST Repository

    Gomes, Diogo A.


    In its standard form, a mean-field game can be defined by coupled system of equations, a Hamilton-Jacobi equation for the value function of agents and a Fokker-Planck equation for the density of agents. Traditionally, the latter equation is adjoint to the linearization of the former. Since the Fokker-Planck equation models a population dynamic, we introduce natural features such as seeding and birth, and nonlinear death rates. In this paper we analyze a stationary meanfield game in one dimension, illustrating various techniques to obtain regularity of solutions in this class of systems. In particular we consider a logistic-type model for birth and death of the agents which is natural in problems where crowding affects the death rate of the agents. The introduction of these new terms requires a number of new ideas to obtain wellposedness. In a forthcoming publication we will address higher dimensional models. ©2013 IEEE.

  1. Dynamical criticality in the collective activity of a neural population (United States)

    Mora, Thierry

    The past decade has seen a wealth of physiological data suggesting that neural networks may behave like critical branching processes. Concurrently, the collective activity of neurons has been studied using explicit mappings to classic statistical mechanics models such as disordered Ising models, allowing for the study of their thermodynamics, but these efforts have ignored the dynamical nature of neural activity. I will show how to reconcile these two approaches by learning effective statistical mechanics models of the full history of the collective activity of a neuron population directly from physiological data, treating time as an additional dimension. Applying this technique to multi-electrode recordings from retinal ganglion cells, and studying the thermodynamics of the inferred model, reveals a peak in specific heat reminiscent of a second-order phase transition.

  2. On signals of phase transitions in salmon population dynamics (United States)

    Krkošek, Martin; Drake, John M.


    Critical slowing down (CSD) reflects the decline in resilience of equilibria near a bifurcation and may reveal early warning signals (EWS) of ecological phase transitions. We studied CSD in the recruitment dynamics of 120 stocks of three Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) species in relation to critical transitions in fishery models. Pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) exhibited increased variability and autocorrelation in populations that had a growth parameter, r, close to zero, consistent with EWS of extinction. However, models and data for sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) indicate that portfolio effects from heterogeneity in age-at-maturity may obscure EWS. Chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) show intermediate results. The data do not reveal EWS of Ricker-type bifurcations that cause oscillations and chaos at high r. These results not only provide empirical support for CSD in some ecological systems, but also indicate that portfolio effects of age structure may conceal EWS of some critical transitions. PMID:24759855

  3. On the stochastic approach to marine population dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo Ferrandis


    Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to deepen and structure the statistical basis of marine population dynamics. The starting point is the correspondence between the concepts of mortality, survival and lifetime distribution. This is the kernel of the possibilities that survival analysis techniques offer to marine population dynamics. A rigorous definition of survival and mortality based on their properties and their probabilistic versions is briefly presented. Some well established models for lifetime distribution, which generalise the usual simple exponential distribution, might be used with their corresponding survivals and mortalities. A critical review of some published models is also made, including original models proposed in the way opened by Caddy (1991 and Sparholt (1990, which allow for a continuously decreasing natural mortality. Considering these elements, the pure death process dealt with in the literature is used as a theoretical basis for the evolution of a marine cohort. The elaboration of this process is based on Chiang´s study of the probability distribution of the life table (Chiang, 1960 and provides specific structured models for stock evolution as a Markovian process. These models may introduce new ideas in the line of thinking developed by Gudmundsson (1987 and Sampson (1990 in order to model the evolution of a marine cohort by stochastic processes. The suitable approximation of these processes by means of Gaussian processes may allow theoretical and computational multivariate Gaussian analysis to be applied to the probabilistic treatment of fisheries issues. As a consequence, the necessary catch equation appears as a stochastic integral with respect to the mentioned Markovian process of the stock. The solution of this equation is available when the mortalities are proportional, hence the use of the proportional hazards model (Cox, 1959. The assumption of these proportional mortalities leads naturally to the construction of a

  4. Evolutionary game dynamics in a growing structured population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poncela, Julia; Gomez-Gardenes, Jesus; Moreno, Yamir; Traulsen, Arne


    We discuss a model for evolutionary game dynamics in a growing, network-structured population. In our model, new players can either make connections to random preexisting players or preferentially attach to those that have been successful in the past. The latter depends on the dynamics of strategies in the game, which we implement following the so-called Fermi rule such that the limits of weak and strong strategy selection can be explored. Our framework allows to address general evolutionary games. With only two parameters describing the preferential attachment and the intensity of selection, we describe a wide range of network structures and evolutionary scenarios. Our results show that even for moderate payoff preferential attachment, over represented hubs arise. Interestingly, we find that while the networks are growing, high levels of cooperation are attained, but the same network structure does not promote cooperation as a static network. Therefore, the mechanism of payoff preferential attachment is different to those usually invoked to explain the promotion of cooperation in static, already-grown networks.

  5. Sonoluminescence and dynamics of cavitation bubble populations in sulfuric acid. (United States)

    Thiemann, Andrea; Holsteyns, Frank; Cairós, Carlos; Mettin, Robert


    The detailed link of liquid phase sonochemical reactions and bubble dynamics is still not sufficiently known. To further clarify this issue, we image sonoluminescence and bubble oscillations, translations, and shapes in an acoustic cavitation setup at 23kHz in sulfuric acid with dissolved sodium sulfate and xenon gas saturation. The colour of sonoluminescence varies in a way that emissions from excited non-volatile sodium atoms are prominently observed far from the acoustic horn emitter ("red region"), while such emissions are nearly absent close to the horn tip ("blue region"). High-speed images reveal the dynamics of distinct bubble populations that can partly be linked to the different emission regions. In particular, we see smaller strongly collapsing spherical bubbles within the blue region, while larger bubbles with a liquid jet during collapse dominate the red region. The jetting is induced by the fast bubble translation, which is a consequence of acoustic (Bjerknes) forces in the ultrasonic field. Numerical simulations with a spherical single bubble model reproduce quantitatively the volume oscillations and fast translation of the sodium emitting bubbles. Additionally, their intermittent stopping is explained by multistability in a hysteretic parameter range. The findings confirm the assumption that bubble deformations are responsible for pronounced sodium sonoluminescence. Notably the observed translation induced jetting appears to serve as efficient mixing mechanism of liquid into the heated gas phase of collapsing bubbles, thus potentially promoting liquid phase sonochemistry in general. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Replication, Communication, and the Population Dynamics of Scientific Discovery. (United States)

    McElreath, Richard; Smaldino, Paul E


    Many published research results are false (Ioannidis, 2005), and controversy continues over the roles of replication and publication policy in improving the reliability of research. Addressing these problems is frustrated by the lack of a formal framework that jointly represents hypothesis formation, replication, publication bias, and variation in research quality. We develop a mathematical model of scientific discovery that combines all of these elements. This model provides both a dynamic model of research as well as a formal framework for reasoning about the normative structure of science. We show that replication may serve as a ratchet that gradually separates true hypotheses from false, but the same factors that make initial findings unreliable also make replications unreliable. The most important factors in improving the reliability of research are the rate of false positives and the base rate of true hypotheses, and we offer suggestions for addressing each. Our results also bring clarity to verbal debates about the communication of research. Surprisingly, publication bias is not always an obstacle, but instead may have positive impacts-suppression of negative novel findings is often beneficial. We also find that communication of negative replications may aid true discovery even when attempts to replicate have diminished power. The model speaks constructively to ongoing debates about the design and conduct of science, focusing analysis and discussion on precise, internally consistent models, as well as highlighting the importance of population dynamics.

  7. A technique for measuring dynamic friction coefficient under impact loading. (United States)

    Lin, Y L; Qin, J G; Chen, R; Zhao, P D; Lu, F Y


    We develop a novel setup based on the split Hopkinson pressure bar technique to test the dynamic friction coefficient under impact loading. In the setup, the major improvement is that the end of the incident bar near the specimen is wedge-shaped, which results in a combined compressive and shear loading applied to the specimen. In fact, the shear loading is caused by the interfacial friction between specimen and bars. Therefore, when the two loading force histories are measured, the friction coefficient histories can be calculated without any assumptions and theoretical derivations. The geometry of the friction pairs is simple, and can be either cuboid or cylindrical. Regarding the measurements, two quartz transducers are used to directly record the force histories, and an optical apparatus is designed to test the interfacial slip movement. By using the setup, the dynamic friction coefficient of PTFE/aluminum 7075 friction pairs was tested. The time resolved dynamic friction coefficient and slip movement histories were achieved. The results show that the friction coefficient changes during the loading process, the average data of the relatively stable flat plateau section of the friction coefficient curves is 0.137, the maximum normal pressure is 52 MPa, the maximum relative slip velocity is 1.5 m/s, and the acceleration is 8400 m(2)/s. Furthermore, the friction test was simulated using an explicit FEM code LS-DYNA. The simulation results showed that the constant pressure and slip velocity can both be obtained with a wide flat plateau incident pulse. For some special friction pairs, normal pressure up to a few hundred MPa, interfacial slip velocities up to 10 m/s, and slip movement up to centimeter-level can be expected.

  8. Strength of coffee beans under static and dynamic loading

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Šárka Nedomová


    Full Text Available Paper deals with experimental research on the crushing of coffee beans of different kinds under quasi-static and dynamic compression. The process of the crushing is described in details. It has been shown that there is variability in the crushing strength values. A relation between crushing strength and the coffee grain shape is also studied. Roasted Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica beans were used for analyses. Arabica coffees were produced in different countries. All Arabica samples were submitted to a light roast. The detail analysis of the experimental data shows that there is no significant relation between parameters describing the fracture behaviour of the grains and grain geometry. These parameters are also independent on the grain weight. Compression of the coffee grains leads to their crushing. The fracture force is different for the different kinds of the coffee. The same is fact valid also for the strain at the fracture and for the energy absorbed during the grain crushing. Dynamic loading leads to the increase in the fracture force of coffee grains in comparison with the quasi static loading.

  9. Prototypes for the dynamics underlying precipitation and temperature extremes (United States)

    Neelin, J. David

    Projecting changes in precipitation and temperature extreme events can be aided by a deeper understanding of the dynamics underlying such variations. For precipitation, this is closely connected to the interaction of fast, small-scale motions with variability of large-scale climate. Simple prototype models from the physics and applied math literature can point to analysis methods, connections among related quantities, and hypotheses for the dynamics, especially when the prototype models can be derived from climate-model equations. An overview will be provided including recent work with a number of collaborators. For distributions of precipitation-related variables, prototypes including Fokker-Planck solutions and first-passage problems for variations across an onset threshold yield insights into the form of present-day observed distributions and predictions for the form of the global warming change to evaluate in climate models. In distributions of water vapor and temperature, the widespread occurrence of non-Gaussian tails is likely explained in part by prototypes for tracer advection across a maintained gradient. The shape of these tails can have substantial implications for regional changes in probabilities of precipitation and temperature extremes with large-scale warming. Supported in part by the National Science Foundation.

  10. Dynamical anisotropic response of black phosphorus under magnetic field (United States)

    Liu, Xuefeng; Lu, Wei; Zhou, Xiaoying; Zhou, Yang; Zhang, Chenglong; Lai, Jiawei; Ge, Shaofeng; Sekhar, M. Chandra; Jia, Shuang; Chang, Kai; Sun, Dong


    Black phosphorus (BP) has emerged as a promising material candidate for next generation electronic and optoelectronic devices due to its high mobility, tunable band gap and highly anisotropic properties. In this work, polarization resolved ultrafast mid-infrared transient reflection spectroscopy measurements are performed to study the dynamical anisotropic optical properties of BP under magnetic fields up to 9 T. The relaxation dynamics of photoexcited carrier is found to be insensitive to the applied magnetic field due to the broadening of the Landau levels and large effective mass of carriers. While the anisotropic optical response of BP decreases with increasing magnetic field, its enhancement due to the excitation of hot carriers is similar to that without magnetic field. These experimental results can be well interpreted by the magneto-optical conductivity of the Landau levels of BP thin film, based on an effective k · p Hamiltonian and linear response theory. These findings suggest attractive possibilities of multi-dimensional control of anisotropic response (AR) of BP with light, electric and magnetic field, which further introduces BP to the fantastic magnetic field sensitive applications.

  11. Planar dynamics of large-deformation rods under moving loads (United States)

    Zhao, X. W.; van der Heijden, G. H. M.


    We formulate the problem of a slender structure (a rod) undergoing large deformation under the action of a moving mass or load motivated by inspection robots crawling along bridge cables or high-voltage power lines. The rod is described by means of geometrically exact Cosserat theory which allows for arbitrary planar flexural, extensional and shear deformations. The equations of motion are discretised using the generalised-α method. The formulation is shown to handle the discontinuities of the problem well. Application of the method to a cable and an arch problem reveals interesting nonlinear phenomena. For the cable problem we find that large deformations have a resonance detuning effect on cable dynamics. The problem also offers a compelling illustration of the Timoshenko paradox. For the arch problem we find a stabilising (delay) effect on the in-plane collapse of the arch, with failure suppressed entirely at sufficiently high speed.

  12. Dynamics of Microbeams under Multi-Frequency Excitations

    KAUST Repository

    Ibrahim, Alwathiqbellah


    This paper presents an investigation of the dynamics of microbeams under multiple harmonic electrostatic excitation frequencies. First, the response of a cantilever microbeam to two alternating current (AC) source excitation is examined. We show by simulations the response of the microbeam at primary resonance (near the fundamental natural frequency) and at secondary resonances (near half, superharmonic, and twice, subharmonic, the fundamental natural frequency). A multimode Galerkin method combined with the Euler-Bernoulli beam equation, accounting for the nonlinear electrostatic force, has been used to develop a reduced order model. The response of the cantilever microbeam to three AC source excitation is also investigated and shown as a promising technique to enhance the bandwidth of resonators. Finally, an experimental study of a clamped-clamped microbeam is conducted, demonstrating the multi-frequency excitation resonances using two, three, and four AC sources.

  13. Dynamics of Microbeams under Multi-Frequency Excitations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alwathiqbellah Ibrahim


    Full Text Available This paper presents an investigation of the dynamics of microbeams under multiple harmonic electrostatic excitation frequencies. First, the response of a cantilever microbeam to two alternating current (AC source excitation is examined. We show by simulations the response of the microbeam at primary resonance (near the fundamental natural frequency and at secondary resonances (near half, superharmonic, and twice, subharmonic, the fundamental natural frequency. A multimode Galerkin method combined with the Euler-Bernoulli beam equation, accounting for the nonlinear electrostatic force, has been used to develop a reduced order model. The response of the cantilever microbeam to three AC source excitation is also investigated and shown as a promising technique to enhance the bandwidth of resonators. Finally, an experimental study of a clamped-clamped microbeam is conducted, demonstrating the multi-frequency excitation resonances using two, three, and four AC sources.

  14. Dynamic malware containment under an epidemic model with alert (United States)

    Zhang, Tianrui; Yang, Lu-Xing; Yang, Xiaofan; Wu, Yingbo; Tang, Yuan Yan


    Alerting at the early stage of malware invasion turns out to be an important complement to malware detection and elimination. This paper addresses the issue of how to dynamically contain the prevalence of malware at a lower cost, provided alerting is feasible. A controlled epidemic model with alert is established, and an optimal control problem based on the epidemic model is formulated. The optimality system for the optimal control problem is derived. The structure of an optimal control for the proposed optimal control problem is characterized under some conditions. Numerical examples show that the cost-efficiency of an optimal control strategy can be enhanced by adjusting the upper and lower bounds on admissible controls.

  15. Dynamic Group Diffie-Hellman Key Exchange under standard assumptions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bresson, Emmanuel; Chevassut, Olivier; Pointcheval, David


    Authenticated Diffie-Hellman key exchange allows two principals communicating over a public network, and each holding public-private keys, to agree on a shared secret value. In this paper we study the natural extension of this cryptographic problem to a group of principals. We begin from existing formal security models and refine them to incorporate major missing details (e.g., strong-corruption and concurrent sessions). Within this model we define the execution of a protocol for authenticated dynamic group Diffie-Hellman and show that it is provably secure under the decisional Diffie-Hellman assumption. Our security result holds in the standard model and thus provides better security guarantees than previously published results in the random oracle model

  16. Programming microbial population dynamics by engineered cell-cell communication. (United States)

    Song, Hao; Payne, Stephen; Tan, Cheemeng; You, Lingchong


    A major aim of synthetic biology is to program novel cellular behavior using engineered gene circuits. Early endeavors focused on building simple circuits that fulfill simple functions, such as logic gates, bistable toggle switches, and oscillators. These gene circuits have primarily focused on single-cell behaviors since they operate intracellularly. Thus, they are often susceptible to cell-cell variations due to stochastic gene expression. Cell-cell communication offers an efficient strategy to coordinate cellular behavior at the population level. To this end, we review recent advances in engineering cell-cell communication to achieve reliable population dynamics, spanning from communication within single species to multispecies, from one-way sender-receiver communication to two-way communication in synthetic microbial ecosystems. These engineered systems serve as well-defined model systems to better understand design principles of their naturally occurring counterparts and to facilitate novel biotechnology applications. Copyright © 2011 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  17. The relative importance of direct and indirect effects of hunting mortality on the population dynamics of brown bears. (United States)

    Gosselin, Jacinthe; Zedrosser, Andreas; Swenson, Jon E; Pelletier, Fanie


    There is increasing evidence of indirect effects of hunting on populations. In species with sexually selected infanticide (SSI), hunting may decrease juvenile survival by increasing male turnover. We aimed to evaluate the relative importance of direct and indirect effects of hunting via SSI on the population dynamics of the Scandinavian brown bear (Ursus arctos). We performed prospective and retrospective demographic perturbation analyses for periods with low and high hunting pressures. All demographic rates, except yearling survival, were lower under high hunting pressure, which led to a decline in population growth under high hunting pressure (λ = 0.975; 95% CI = 0.914-1.011). Hunting had negative indirect effects on the population through an increase in SSI, which lowered cub survival and possibly also fecundity rates. Our study suggests that SSI could explain 13.6% of the variation in population growth. Hunting also affected the relative importance of survival and fecundity of adult females for population growth, with fecundity being more important under low hunting pressure and survival more important under high hunting pressure. Our study sheds light on the importance of direct and indirect effects of hunting on population dynamics, and supports the contention that hunting can have indirect negative effects on populations through SSI. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  18. Ageing dynamics of a human-capital-specific population: A demographic perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimiter Philipov


    Full Text Available Background: Research on how rising human capital affects the consequences of population ageing rarely considers the fact that the human capital of the elderly population is composed in a specific way that is shaped by their earlier schooling and work experience. For an elderly population of a fixed size and age-sex composition, this entails that the higher its human capital, the greater the total amount of public pensions to be paid. Objective: The main purpose of this paper is to analyse the link between human capital and retiree benefits and its effect on population ageing from a demographic viewpoint. Methods: We construct an old age dependency ratio (OADR, in which each person, whether in the numerator or the denominator, is assigned the number of units corresponding to his/her level of human capital. Based on data for Italy, we study the dynamics of this human-capital-specific OADR with the help of multistate population projections to 2107. Results: Our results show that under specific conditions a constant or moderately growing human capital may aggravate the consequences of population ageing rather than alleviate them. Conclusions: With those findings, the authors would like to stimulate the debate on the search for demographic and/or socio-economic solutions to the challenges posed by population ageing.

  19. Population dynamics of caribou herds in southwestern Alaska

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick Valkenburg


    Full Text Available The five naturally occurring and one transplanted caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti herd in southwestern Alaska composed about 20% of Alaska's caribou population in 2001. All five of the naturally occurring herds fluctuated considerably in size between the late 1800s and 2001 and for some herds the data provide an indication of long-term periodic (40-50 year fluctuations. At the present time, the Unimak (UCH and Southern Alaska Peninsula (SAP are recovering from population declines, the Northern Alaska Peninsula Herd (NAP appears to be nearing the end of a protracted decline, and the Mulchatna Herd (MCH appears to now be declining after 20 years of rapid growth. The remaining naturally occurring herd (Kilbuck has virtually disappeared. Nutrition had a significant effect on the size of 4-month-old and 10-month-old calves in the NAP and the Nushagak Peninsula Herd (NPCH and probably also on population growth in at least 4 (SAP, NAP, NPCH, and MCH of the six caribou herds in southwestern Alaska. Predation does not appear to be sufficient to keep caribou herds in southwestern Alaska from expanding, probably because rabies is endemic in red foxes (Vulpes vulpes and is periodically transferred to wolves (Canis lupus and other canids. However, we found evidence that pneumonia and hoof rot may result in significant mortality of caribou in southwestern Alaska, whereas there is no evidence that disease is important in the dynamics of Interior herds. Cooperative conservation programs, such as the Kilbuck Caribou Management Plan, can be successful in restraining traditional harvest and promoting growth in caribou herds. In southwestern Alaska we also found evidence that small caribou herds can be swamped and assimilated by large herds, and fidelity to traditional calving areas can be lost.

  20. Isoenzymatic variability in tropical maize populations under reciprocal recurrent selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pinto Luciana Rossini


    Full Text Available Maize (Zea mays L. is one of the crops in which the genetic variability has been extensively studied at isoenzymatic loci. The genetic variability of the maize populations BR-105 and BR-106, and the synthetics IG-3 and IG-4, obtained after one cycle of a high-intensity reciprocal recurrent selection (RRS, was investigated at seven isoenzymatic loci. A total of twenty alleles were identified, and most of the private alleles were found in the BR-106 population. One cycle of reciprocal recurrent selection (RRS caused reductions of 12% in the number of alleles in both populations. Changes in allele frequencies were also observed between populations and synthetics, mainly for the Est 2 locus. Populations presented similar values for the number of alleles per locus, percentage of polymorphic loci, and observed and expected heterozygosities. A decrease of the genetic variation values was observed for the synthetics as a consequence of genetic drift effects and reduction of the effective population sizes. The distribution of the genetic diversity within and between populations revealed that most of the diversity was maintained within them, i.e. BR-105 x BR-106 (G ST = 3.5% and IG-3 x IG-4 (G ST = 4.0%. The genetic distances between populations and synthetics increased approximately 21%. An increase in the genetic divergence between the populations occurred without limiting new selection procedures.

  1. Numerical optimization of piezolaminated beams under static and dynamic excitations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rajan L. Wankhade


    Full Text Available Shape and vibration controls of smart structures in structural applications have gained much attraction due to their ability of actuation and sensing. The response of structure to bending, vibration, and buckling can be controlled by the use of this ability of a piezoelectric material. In the present work, the static and dynamic control of smart piezolaminated beams is presented. The optimal locations of piezoelectric patches are found out and then a detailed analysis is performed using finite element modeling considering the higher order shear deformation theory. In the first part, for an extension mode, the piezolaminated beam with stacking sequence PZT5/Al/PZT5 is considered. The length of the beam is 100 mm, whereas the thickness of an aluminum core is 16 mm and that of the piezo layer is of 1 mm. The PZT actuators are positioned with an identical poling direction along the thickness and are excited by a direct current voltage of 10 V. For the shear mode, the stacking sequence Al/PZT5/Al is adopted. The length of the beam is kept the same as the extension mechanism i.e. 100 mm, whereas the thickness of the aluminum core is 8 mm and that of the piezo layer is of 2 mm. The actuator is excited by a direct current voltage of 20 V. In the second part, the control of the piezolaminated beam with an optimal location of the actuator is investigated under a dynamic excitation. Electromechanical loading is considered in the finite element formulation for the analysis purpose. Results are provided for beams with different boundary conditions and loading for future references. Both the extension and shear actuation mechanisms are employed for the piezolaminated beam. These results may be used to identify the response of a beam under static and dynamic excitations. From the present work, the optimal location of a piezoelectric patch can be easily identified for the corresponding boundary condition of the beam.

  2. Sustainable infrastructure system modeling under uncertainties and dynamics (United States)

    Huang, Yongxi

    Infrastructure systems support human activities in transportation, communication, water use, and energy supply. The dissertation research focuses on critical transportation infrastructure and renewable energy infrastructure systems. The goal of the research efforts is to improve the sustainability of the infrastructure systems, with an emphasis on economic viability, system reliability and robustness, and environmental impacts. The research efforts in critical transportation infrastructure concern the development of strategic robust resource allocation strategies in an uncertain decision-making environment, considering both uncertain service availability and accessibility. The study explores the performances of different modeling approaches (i.e., deterministic, stochastic programming, and robust optimization) to reflect various risk preferences. The models are evaluated in a case study of Singapore and results demonstrate that stochastic modeling methods in general offers more robust allocation strategies compared to deterministic approaches in achieving high coverage to critical infrastructures under risks. This general modeling framework can be applied to other emergency service applications, such as, locating medical emergency services. The development of renewable energy infrastructure system development aims to answer the following key research questions: (1) is the renewable energy an economically viable solution? (2) what are the energy distribution and infrastructure system requirements to support such energy supply systems in hedging against potential risks? (3) how does the energy system adapt the dynamics from evolving technology and societal needs in the transition into a renewable energy based society? The study of Renewable Energy System Planning with Risk Management incorporates risk management into its strategic planning of the supply chains. The physical design and operational management are integrated as a whole in seeking mitigations against the

  3. Nonlinear dynamics in a business-cycle model with logistic population growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brianzoni, Serena; Mammana, Cristiana; Michetti, Elisabetta


    We consider a discrete-time growth model of the Solow type where workers and shareholders have different but constant saving rates and the population growth dynamics is described by the logistic equation able to exhibit complicated dynamics. We show conditions for the resulting system having a compact global attractor and we describe its structure. We also perform a mainly numerical analysis using the critical lines method able to describe the strange attractor and the absorbing area, in order to show how cyclical or complex fluctuations may be produced in a business-cycle model. We study the dynamic behaviour of the model under different ranges of the main parameters, i.e. the elasticity of substitution between the two production factors and the one in the logistic equation (namely μ). We prove the existence of complex dynamics when the elasticity of substitution between production factors drops below one (so that capital income declines) or μ increases (so that the amplitude of movements in the population growth rate increases).

  4. A hypothetical study of populations under constant mortality and fertility. (United States)

    Gupta, R B


    28 countries with different characteristics have been selected in order to observe the amount of time it takes for these different countries to reach stable age distributions. The individual populations by sex and age were projected for 150 years in 5-year intervals with the present constant mortality and fertility schedules by component method. Observations have been made by considering the following characteristics of population when it has acquired stability: age distribution; the rate of growth, birthrate, and mortality rate; the population change; the intrinsic rate of growth, birthrate and mortality rate; and approximate time taken to stabilize the population. The initial age distribution has a significant part in the amount of time it takes for a population to acquire stability, and its intrinsic rate of growth is mostly dependent upon the existing age distribution of that population. The time taken for a country's population to become stable depends upon the age distribution, fertility and mortality schedules at the beginning. It has been observed that countries having a higher intrinsic rate of growth take comparatively less time in acquiring stability than the countries having a lower intrinsic rate of growth. The mortality and fertility schedules of a country is another important phenomenon. The populations of the different countries at the point of stability were growing according to their rates of growth. No specific trend of population growth could be found among the groups of countries. Time taken for stabilizing the population is completely based upon age distributions, fertility and mortality schedules a particular country was having at the beginning. The range of time taken for different countries to acquire stability generally ranged from 100 to 135 years. Among the different countries the relationship for the time it takes to acquire stability has not been established. This is a hypothetical approach in order to obtain some idea as to how a

  5. Phase control of light amplification with dynamically irreversible pathways of population transfer in a Λ system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuan Shi; Wu Jinhui; Gao Jinyue; Pan Chunliu


    We use the relative phase of two coherent fields for the control of light amplification with dynamically irreversible pathways of population transfer in a Λ system. The population inversion and gain with dynamically irreversible pathways of population transfer are shown as the relative phase is varied. We support our results by numerical calculation and analytical explanation

  6. Thermographic measurement of thermal bridges in buildings under dynamic behavior (United States)

    Ferrarini, G.; Bison, P.; Bortolin, A.; Cadelano, G.; De Carli, M.


    The accurate knowledge of the thermal performance could reduce significantly the impact of buildings on global energy consumption. Infrared thermography is widely recognized as one of the key technologies for building surveys, thanks to its ability to acquire at a glance thermal images of the building envelope. However, a spot measurement could be misleading when the building is under dynamic thermal conditions. In this case data should be acquired for hours or days, depending on the thermal properties of the walls. Long term thermographic monitoring are possible but imply strong challenges from a practical standpoint. This work investigates the possibilities and limitations of spot thermographic surveys coupled with contact probes, that are able to acquire continuously the thermal signal for days, to investigate the thermal bridges of a building. The goal is the estimation of the reliability and accuracy of the measurement under realistic environmental conditions. Firstly, numerical simulations are performed to determine the reference value of an experimental case. Then a long term thermographic survey is performed and integrated with the contact probe measurement, assessing the feasibility of the method.

  7. The role of uncertainty in supply chains under dynamic modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Fera


    Full Text Available The uncertainty in the supply chains (SCs for manufacturing and services firms is going to be, over the coming decades, more important for the companies that are called to compete in a new globalized economy. Risky situations for manufacturing are considered in trying to individuate the optimal positioning of the order penetration point (OPP. It aims at defining the best level of information of the client’s order going back through the several supply chain (SC phases, i.e. engineering, procurement, production and distribution. This work aims at defining a system dynamics model to assess competitiveness coming from the positioning of the order in different SC locations. A Taguchi analysis has been implemented to create a decision map for identifying possible strategic decisions under different scenarios and with alternatives for order location in the SC levels. Centralized and decentralized strategies for SC integration are discussed. In the model proposed, the location of OPP is influenced by the demand variation, production time, stock-outs and stock amount. Results of this research are as follows: (i customer-oriented strategies are preferable under high volatility of demand, (ii production-focused strategies are suggested when the probability of stock-outs is high, (iii no specific location is preferable if a centralized control architecture is implemented, (iv centralization requires cooperation among partners to achieve the SC optimum point, (v the producer must not prefer the OPP location at the Retailer level when the general strategy is focused on a decentralized approach.

  8. Impact of forestry practices at a landscape scale on the dynamics of amphibian populations. (United States)

    Harper, Elizabeth B; Patrick, David A; Gibbs, James P


    Forest loss is a primary cause of worldwide amphibian decline. Timber harvesting in the United States has caused dramatic changes in quality and extent of forest ecosystems, and intensive forest management still occurs. Although numerous studies have documented substantial reductions in amphibian densities related to timber harvest, subsequent extinctions are rare. To better understand the population dynamics that have allowed so many amphibian species to persist in the face of widespread forest disturbance, we developed spatially explicit metapopulation models for four forest-dependent amphibian species (Lithobates sylvaticus, Ambystoma opacum, A. talpoideum, and A. maculatum) that incorporated demographic and habitat selection data derived from experiments conducted as part of the Land Use Effects on Amphibian Populations Project (LEAP). We projected local and landscape-scale population persistence under 108 different forestry practice scenarios, varying treatment (partial cut, clear-cut with coarse woody debris [CWD] removed, and clearcut with CWD retained), cut patch size (1, 10, or 50 ha), total area cut (10, 20, or 30%), and initial amphibian population size (5, 50, or 500 adult females per local breeding population). Under these scenarios, landscape-scale extinction was highly unlikely, occurring in forestry practices.

  9. Polar bear population dynamics in the southern Beaufort Sea during a period of sea ice decline (United States)

    Bromaghin, Jeffrey F.; McDonald, Trent L.; Stirling, Ian; Derocher, Andrew E.; Richardson, Evan S.; Regehr, Eric V.; Douglas, David C.; Durner, George M.; Atwood, Todd C.; Amstrup, Steven C.


    In the southern Beaufort Sea of the United States and Canada, prior investigations have linked declines in summer sea ice to reduced physical condition, growth, and survival of polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Combined with projections of population decline due to continued climate warming and the ensuing loss of sea ice habitat, those findings contributed to the 2008 decision to list the species as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Here, we used mark–recapture models to investigate the population dynamics of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea from 2001 to 2010, years during which the spatial and temporal extent of summer sea ice generally declined. Low survival from 2004 through 2006 led to a 25–50% decline in abundance. We hypothesize that low survival during this period resulted from (1) unfavorable ice conditions that limited access to prey during multiple seasons; and possibly, (2) low prey abundance. For reasons that are not clear, survival of adults and cubs began to improve in 2007 and abundance was comparatively stable from 2008 to 2010, with ~900 bears in 2010 (90% CI 606–1212). However, survival of subadult bears declined throughout the entire period. Reduced spatial and temporal availability of sea ice is expected to increasingly force population dynamics of polar bears as the climate continues to warm. However, in the short term, our findings suggest that factors other than sea ice can influence survival. A refined understanding of the ecological mechanisms underlying polar bear population dynamics is necessary to improve projections of their future status and facilitate development of management strategies.

  10. Nanomaterials under extreme environments: A study of structural and dynamic properties using reactive molecular dynamics simulations (United States)

    Shekhar, Adarsh

    Nanotechnology is becoming increasingly important with the continuing advances in experimental techniques. As researchers around the world are trying to expand the current understanding of the behavior of materials at the atomistic scale, the limited resolution of equipment, both in terms of time and space, act as roadblocks to a comprehensive study. Numerical methods, in general and molecular dynamics, in particular act as able compliment to the experiments in our quest for understanding material behavior. In this research work, large scale molecular dynamics simulations to gain insight into the mechano-chemical behavior under extreme conditions of a variety of systems with many real world applications. The body of this work is divided into three parts, each covering a particular system: 1) Aggregates of aluminum nanoparticles are good solid fuel due to high flame propagation rates. Multi-million atom molecular dynamics simulations reveal the mechanism underlying higher reaction rate in a chain of aluminum nanoparticles as compared to an isolated nanoparticle. This is due to the penetration of hot atoms from reacting nanoparticles to an adjacent, unreacted nanoparticle, which brings in external heat and initiates exothermic oxidation reactions. 2) Cavitation bubbles readily occur in fluids subjected to rapid changes in pressure. We use billion-atom reactive molecular dynamics simulations on a 163,840-processor BlueGene/P supercomputer to investigate chemical and mechanical damages caused by shock-induced collapse of nanobubbles in water near amorphous silica. Collapse of an empty nanobubble generates high-speed nanojet, resulting in the formation of a pit on the surface. The pit contains a large number of silanol groups and its volume is found to be directly proportional to the volume of the nanobubble. The gas-filled bubbles undergo partial collapse and consequently the damage on the silica surface is mitigated. 3) The structure and dynamics of water confined in

  11. Allocation trade-off under climate warming in experimental amphibian populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xu Gao


    Full Text Available Climate change could either directly or indirectly cause population declines via altered temperature, rainfall regimes, food availability or phenological responses. However few studies have focused on allocation trade-offs between growth and reproduction under marginal resources, such as food scarce that may be caused by climate warming. Such critical changes may have an unpredicted impact on amphibian life-history parameters and even population dynamics. Here, we report an allocation strategy of adult anuran individuals involving a reproductive stage under experimental warming. Using outdoor mesocosm experiments we simulated a warming scenario likely to occur at the end of this century. We examined the effects of temperature (ambient vs. pre-/post-hibernation warming and food availability (normal vs. low on reproduction and growth parameters of pond frogs (Pelophylax nigromaculatus. We found that temperature was the major factor influencing reproductive time of female pond frogs, which showed a significant advancing under post-hibernation warming treatment. While feeding rate was the major factor influencing reproductive status of females, clutch size, and variation of body size for females, showed significant positive correlations between feeding rate and reproductive status, clutch size, or variation of body size. Our results suggested that reproduction and body size of amphibians might be modulated by climate warming or food availability variation. We believe this study provides some new evidence on allocation strategies suggesting that amphibians could adjust their reproductive output to cope with climate warming.

  12. Modelling the impact of climate change on woody plant population dynamics in South African savanna

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeltsch Florian


    Full Text Available Abstract Background In Southern Africa savannas climate change has been proposed to alter rainfall, the most important environmental driver for woody plants. Woody plants are a major component of savanna vegetation determining rangeland condition and biodiversity. In this study we use a spatially explicit, stochastic computer model to assess the impact of climate change on the population dynamics of Grewia flava, a common, fleshy-fruited shrub species in the southern Kalahari. Understanding the population dynamics of Grewia flava is a crucial task, because it is widely involved in the shrub/bush encroachment process, a major concern for rangeland management due to its adverse effect on livestock carrying capacity and biodiversity. Results For our study we consider four climate change scenarios that have been proposed for the southern Kalahari for the coming decades: (1 an increase in annual precipitation by 30–40%, (2 a decrease by 5–15%, (3 an increase in variation of extreme rainfall years by 10–20%, (4 and increase in temporal auto-correlation, i.e. increasing length and variation of periodic rainfall oscillations related to El Niño/La Niña phenomena. We evaluate the slope z of the time-shrub density relationship to quantify the population trend. For each climate change scenario we then compared the departure of z from typical stable population dynamics under current climatic conditions. Based on the simulation experiments we observed a positive population trend for scenario (1 and a negative trend for scenario (2. In terms of the projected rates of precipitation change for scenario (3 and (4 population dynamics were found to be relatively stable. However, for a larger increase in inter-annual variation or in temporal auto-correlation of rainfall population trends were negative, because favorable rainfall years had a limited positive impact due to the limited shrub carrying capacity. Conclusions We conclude that a possible increase in

  13. Modelling the impact of climate change on woody plant population dynamics in South African savanna. (United States)

    Tews, Jörg; Jeltsch, Florian


    In Southern Africa savannas climate change has been proposed to alter rainfall, the most important environmental driver for woody plants. Woody plants are a major component of savanna vegetation determining rangeland condition and biodiversity. In this study we use a spatially explicit, stochastic computer model to assess the impact of climate change on the population dynamics of Grewia flava, a common, fleshy-fruited shrub species in the southern Kalahari. Understanding the population dynamics of Grewia flava is a crucial task, because it is widely involved in the shrub/bush encroachment process, a major concern for rangeland management due to its adverse effect on livestock carrying capacity and biodiversity. For our study we consider four climate change scenarios that have been proposed for the southern Kalahari for the coming decades: (1) an increase in annual precipitation by 30-40%, (2) a decrease by 5-15%, (3) an increase in variation of extreme rainfall years by 10-20%, (4) and increase in temporal auto-correlation, i.e. increasing length and variation of periodic rainfall oscillations related to El Nino/La Nina phenomena. We evaluate the slope z of the time-shrub density relationship to quantify the population trend. For each climate change scenario we then compared the departure of z from typical stable population dynamics under current climatic conditions. Based on the simulation experiments we observed a positive population trend for scenario (1) and a negative trend for scenario (2). In terms of the projected rates of precipitation change for scenario (3) and (4) population dynamics were found to be relatively stable. However, for a larger increase in inter-annual variation or in temporal auto-correlation of rainfall population trends were negative, because favorable rainfall years had a limited positive impact due to the limited shrub carrying capacity. We conclude that a possible increase in precipitation will strongly facilitate shrub encroachment

  14. Training set optimization under population structure in genomic selection. (United States)

    Isidro, Julio; Jannink, Jean-Luc; Akdemir, Deniz; Poland, Jesse; Heslot, Nicolas; Sorrells, Mark E


    Population structure must be evaluated before optimization of the training set population. Maximizing the phenotypic variance captured by the training set is important for optimal performance. The optimization of the training set (TRS) in genomic selection has received much interest in both animal and plant breeding, because it is critical to the accuracy of the prediction models. In this study, five different TRS sampling algorithms, stratified sampling, mean of the coefficient of determination (CDmean), mean of predictor error variance (PEVmean), stratified CDmean (StratCDmean) and random sampling, were evaluated for prediction accuracy in the presence of different levels of population structure. In the presence of population structure, the most phenotypic variation captured by a sampling method in the TRS is desirable. The wheat dataset showed mild population structure, and CDmean and stratified CDmean methods showed the highest accuracies for all the traits except for test weight and heading date. The rice dataset had strong population structure and the approach based on stratified sampling showed the highest accuracies for all traits. In general, CDmean minimized the relationship between genotypes in the TRS, maximizing the relationship between TRS and the test set. This makes it suitable as an optimization criterion for long-term selection. Our results indicated that the best selection criterion used to optimize the TRS seems to depend on the interaction of trait architecture and population structure.

  15. An individual-based probabilistic model for simulating fisheries population dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jie Cao


    Full Text Available The purpose of stock assessment is to support managers to provide intelligent decisions regarding removal from fish populations. Errors in assessment models may have devastating impacts on the population fitness and negative impacts on the economy of the resource users. Thus, accuracte estimations of population size, growth rates are critical for success. Evaluating and testing the behavior and performance of stock assessment models and assessing the consequences of model mis-specification and the impact of management strategies requires an operating model that accurately describe the dynamics of the target species, and can resolve spatial and seasonal changes. In addition, the most thorough evaluations of assessment models use an operating model that takes a different form than the assessment model. This paper presents an individual-based probabilistic model used to simulate the complex dynamics of populations and their associated fisheries. Various components of population dynamics are expressed as random Bernoulli trials in the model and detailed life and fishery histories of each individual are tracked over their life span. The simulation model is designed to be flexible so it can be used for different species and fisheries. It can simulate mixing among multiple stocks and link stock-recruit relationships to environmental factors. Furthermore, the model allows for flexibility in sub-models (e.g., growth and recruitment and model assumptions (e.g., age- or size-dependent selectivity. This model enables the user to conduct various simulation studies, including testing the performance of assessment models under different assumptions, assessing the impacts of model mis-specification and evaluating management strategies.

  16. A framework for studying transient dynamics of population projection matrix models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stott, Iain; Townley, Stuart; Hodgson, David James


    Empirical models are central to effective conservation and population management, and should be predictive of real-world dynamics. Available modelling methods are diverse, but analysis usually focuses on long-term dynamics that are unable to describe the complicated short-term time series that ca...... of transient population density, but criticises the utility of established indices of convergence times. Our findings should guide further development of analyses of transient population dynamics using PPMs or other empirical modelling techniques....

  17. Spin dynamics of an individual Cr atom in a semiconductor quantum dot under optical excitation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lafuente-Sampietro, A. [Université Grenoble Alpes, Institut Néel, F-38000 Grenoble (France); CNRS, Institut Néel, F-38000 Grenoble (France); Institute of Materials Science, University of Tsukuba, 305-8573 Tsukuba (Japan); Utsumi, H.; Kuroda, S. [Institute of Materials Science, University of Tsukuba, 305-8573 Tsukuba (Japan); Boukari, H.; Besombes, L., E-mail: [Université Grenoble Alpes, Institut Néel, F-38000 Grenoble (France); CNRS, Institut Néel, F-38000 Grenoble (France)


    We studied the spin dynamics of a Cr atom incorporated in a II-VI semiconductor quantum dot using photon correlation techniques. We used recently developed singly Cr-doped CdTe/ZnTe quantum dots to access the spin of an individual magnetic atom. Auto-correlation of the photons emitted by the quantum dot under continuous wave optical excitation reveals fluctuations of the localized spin with a timescale in the 10 ns range. Cross-correlation gives quantitative transfer time between Cr spin states. A calculation of the time dependence of the spin levels population in Cr-doped quantum dots shows that the observed spin dynamics is dominated by the exciton-Cr interaction. These measurements also provide a lower bound in the 20 ns range for the intrinsic Cr spin relaxation time.

  18. [Population dynamics in Mexico: 1895-1990. The great demographic change]. (United States)

    Mier Y Teran, M


    In Mexico as in many other countries, the demographic transition began with mortality decline. With the great epidemics largely disappearing by the mid-19th century as a result of public health and sanitation measures, the mortality rate stabilized and began an accelerated decline after 1920. Life expectancy at birth was about 30 years in 1900 and declined during the decade of the Mexican Revolution. By the 1980s it had risen to 69 years. Fertility remained at high levels with slight variations until the late 1960s, when it began to decline 50 years after the start of the mortality decline. Government family planning programs intended to reduce the rate of population growth accelerated the fertility decline. Great changes thus affected Mexico¿s population during the 20th century. The total population increased from 14 million in 1900 to 82 million in 1990. Population growth was relatively slow and constant at around 1.3% until about 1910. It accelerated from the 1920s to the 1960s, and the number of children under age 15 increased sharply. Growth rates began to decline and the population to age in the 1970s. By the 1980s, Mexico¿s fertility rate reached an all-time low. The decline of population growth will be more apparent when the first cohorts of reduced size reach the peak fertility years shortly after 2000. Mexico¿s demographic transition is not yet complete. The evolution of fertility will be decisive in future demographic dynamics.

  19. Fine-scale population dynamics in a marine fish species inferred from dynamic state-space models. (United States)

    Rogers, Lauren A; Storvik, Geir O; Knutsen, Halvor; Olsen, Esben M; Stenseth, Nils C


    Identifying the spatial scale of population structuring is critical for the conservation of natural populations and for drawing accurate ecological inferences. However, population studies often use spatially aggregated data to draw inferences about population trends and drivers, potentially masking ecologically relevant population sub-structure and dynamics. The goals of this study were to investigate how population dynamics models with and without spatial structure affect inferences on population trends and the identification of intrinsic drivers of population dynamics (e.g. density dependence). Specifically, we developed dynamic, age-structured, state-space models to test different hypotheses regarding the spatial structure of a population complex of coastal Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). Data were from a 93-year survey of juvenile (age 0 and 1) cod sampled along >200 km of the Norwegian Skagerrak coast. We compared two models: one which assumes all sampled cod belong to one larger population, and a second which assumes that each fjord contains a unique population with locally determined dynamics. Using the best supported model, we then reconstructed the historical spatial and temporal dynamics of Skagerrak coastal cod. Cross-validation showed that the spatially structured model with local dynamics had better predictive ability. Furthermore, posterior predictive checks showed that a model which assumes one homogeneous population failed to capture the spatial correlation pattern present in the survey data. The spatially structured model indicated that population trends differed markedly among fjords, as did estimates of population parameters including density-dependent survival. Recent biomass was estimated to be at a near-record low all along the coast, but the finer scale model indicated that the decline occurred at different times in different regions. Warm temperatures were associated with poor recruitment, but local changes in habitat and fishing pressure may


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miroslav Német


    Full Text Available Normal 0 21 false false false MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 Dynamic tensile testing of sheet steels is becoming more important. Experimental dynamic tensile technique is depending on the strain rate. For experiments was used two testing method servo hydraulic and single bar method. Experiments was realized on steel grade DP 600. Steel were performed and evaluated static and dynamic tests. Was investigated substructure in static and dynamic loading conditions.

  1. Fitness decline under osmotic stress in Caenorhabditis elegans populations subjected to spontaneous mutation accumulation at varying population sizes. (United States)

    Katju, Vaishali; Packard, Lucille B; Keightley, Peter D


    The consequences of mutations for population fitness depends on their individual selection coefficients and the effective population size. An earlier study of Caenorhabditis elegans spontaneous mutation accumulation lines evolved for 409 generations at three population sizes found that N e   = 1 populations declined significantly in fitness whereas the fitness of larger populations (N e   = 5, 50) was indistinguishable from the ancestral control under benign conditions. To test if larger MA populations harbor a load of cryptic deleterious mutations that are obscured under benign laboratory conditions, we measured fitness under osmotic stress via exposure to hypersaline conditions. The fitness of N e   = 1 lines exhibited a further decline under osmotic stress compared to benign conditions. However, the fitness of larger populations remained indistinguishable from that of the ancestral control. The average effects of deleterious mutations in N e   = 1 lines were estimated to be 22% for productivity and 14% for survivorship, exceeding values previously detected under benign conditions. Our results suggest that fitness decline is due to large effect mutations that are rapidly removed via selection even in small populations, with implications for conservation practices. Genetic stochasticity may not be as potent and immediate a threat to the persistence of small populations as other demographic and environmental stochastic factors. © 2018 The Author(s). Evolution © 2018 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  2. Genomic evolution of bacterial populations under coselection by antibiotics and phage. (United States)

    Cairns, Johannes; Frickel, Jens; Jalasvuori, Matti; Hiltunen, Teppo; Becks, Lutz


    Bacteria live in dynamic systems where selection pressures can alter rapidly, forcing adaptation to the prevailing conditions. In particular, bacteriophages and antibiotics of anthropogenic origin are major bacterial stressors in many environments. We previously observed that populations of the bacterium Pseudomonas fluorescens SBW25 exposed to the lytic bacteriophage SBW25Φ2 and a noninhibitive concentration of the antibiotic streptomycin (coselection) achieved higher levels of phage resistance compared to populations exposed to the phage alone. In addition, the phage became extinct under coselection while remaining present in the phage alone environment. Further, phenotypic tests indicated that these observations might be associated with increased mutation rate under coselection. In this study, we examined the genetic causes behind these phenotypes by whole-genome sequencing clones isolated from the end of the experiments. We were able to identify genetic factors likely responsible for streptomycin resistance, phage resistance and hypermutable (mutator) phenotypes. This constitutes genomic evidence in support of the observation that while the presence of phage did not affect antibiotic resistance, the presence of antibiotic affected phage resistance. We had previously hypothesized an association between mutators and elevated levels of phage resistance under coselection. However, our evidence regarding the mechanism was inconclusive, as although with phage mutators were only found under coselection, additional genomic evidence was lacking and phage resistance was also observed in nonmutators under coselection. More generally, our study provides novel insights into evolution between univariate and multivariate selection (here two stressors), as well as the potential role of hypermutability in natural communities. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Population dynamics of potato cyst nematodes and associated damage to potato

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schans, J.


    Population dynamics of potato cyst nematodes (PCN; Globoderarostochiensis (Woll.) Skarbilovich and G. pallida Stone) and their interactions with potato plants are insufficiently understood to explain variations of population

  4. Density dependence and population dynamics of black rhinos (Diceros bicornis michaeli) in Kenya's rhino sanctuaries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ouma, B.O.; Amin, R.; Langevelde, van F.; Leader-Williams, N.


    Density-dependent feedback mechanisms provide insights into the population dynamics and interactions of large herbivores with their ecosystem. Sex ratio also has particularly important implications for growth rates of many large mammal populations through its influence on reproductive potential.

  5. Testing the Mean of a Normal Population Under Dependence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Albers, Willem/Wim


    Modifications of the $t$-test are considered which are robust under certain violations of the independence assumption. The additional number of observations these modified tests require in order to obtain under independence the same power as the $t$-test, is obtained asymptotically.

  6. Performance of HEPA filters under hot dynamic conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frankum, D.P.; Costigan, G. [AEA Technology, Oxfordshire (United Kingdom)


    Accidents in nuclear facilities involving fires may have implications upon the ventilation systems where high efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filters are used to minimise the airborne release of radioactive or toxic particles. The Filter Development Section at Harwell Laboratory has been investigating the effect of temperature on the performance of HEPA filters under hot dynamic conditions[{sub 1}] for a number of years. The test rig is capable of delivering air flows of 10001/s (at ambient conditions) at temperatures up to 500{degrees}C, where measurements of the penetration and pressure drop across the filter are obtained. This paper reports the experiments on different constructions of HEPA filters; rectangular and circular. The filters were tested at an air temperature of 200{degrees}C for up to 48 hours at the rated airflow to assess their performance. The penetration measurements for rectangular filters were observed to be below 0.021% after prolonged operation. In a number of cases, holes appeared along the pleat creases of circular filters although the penetration remained below 1%. The sealing gasket for these filters was noted to deform with temperature, permitting a leakage path. A prototype high strength circular filter was evaluated at temperatures of up to 400{degrees}C with a penetration less than 0.65%.

  7. Analysis of Dynamic Properties of Piezoelectric Structure under Impact Load

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taotao Zhang


    Full Text Available An analytical model of the dynamic properties is established for a piezoelectric structure under impact load, without considering noise and perturbations in this paper. Based on the general theory of piezo-elasticity and impact mechanics, the theoretical solutions of the mechanical and electrical fields of the smart structure are obtained with the standing and traveling wave methods, respectively. The comparisons between the two methods have shown that the standing wave method is better for studying long-time response after an impact load. In addition, good agreements are found between the theoretical and the numerical results. To simulate the impact load, both triangle and step pulse loads are used and comparisons are given. Furthermore, the influence of several parameters is discussed so as to provide some advices for practical use. It can be seen that the proposed analytical model would benefit, to some extent, the design and application (especially the airport runway of the related smart devices by taking into account their impact load performance.

  8. Modeling dynamic behavior of superconducting maglev systems under external disturbances (United States)

    Huang, Chen-Guang; Xue, Cun; Yong, Hua-Dong; Zhou, You-He


    For a maglev system, vertical and lateral displacements of the levitation body may simultaneously occur under external disturbances, which often results in changes in the levitation and guidance forces and even causes some serious malfunctions. To fully understand the effect of external disturbances on the levitation performance, in this work, we build a two-dimensional numerical model on the basis of Newton's second law of motion and a mathematical formulation derived from magnetoquasistatic Maxwell's equations together with a nonlinear constitutive relation between the electric field and the current density. By using this model, we present an analysis of dynamic behavior for two typical maglev systems consisting of an infinitely long superconductor and a guideway of different arrangements of infinitely long parallel permanent magnets. The results show that during the vertical movement, the levitation force is closely associated with the flux motion and the moving velocity of the superconductor. After being disturbed at the working position, the superconductor has a disturbance-induced initial velocity and then starts to periodically vibrate in both lateral and vertical directions. Meanwhile, the lateral and vertical vibration centers gradually drift along their vibration directions. The larger the initial velocity, the faster their vibration centers drift. However, the vertical drift of the vertical vibration center seems to be independent of the direction of the initial velocity. In addition, due to the lateral and vertical drifts, the equilibrium position of the superconductor in the maglev systems is not a space point but a continuous range.

  9. Continuous Opinion Dynamics Under Bounded Confidence:. a Survey (United States)

    Lorenz, Jan

    Models of continuous opinion dynamics under bounded confidence have been presented independently by Krause and Hegselmann and by Deffuant et al. in 2000. They have raised a fair amount of attention in the communities of social simulation, sociophysics and complexity science. The researchers working on it come from disciplines such as physics, mathematics, computer science, social psychology and philosophy. In these models agents hold continuous opinions which they can gradually adjust if they hear the opinions of others. The idea of bounded confidence is that agents only interact if they are close in opinion to each other. Usually, the models are analyzed with agent-based simulations in a Monte Carlo style, but they can also be reformulated on the agent's density in the opinion space in a master equation style. The contribution of this survey is fourfold. First, it will present the agent-based and density-based modeling frameworks including the cases of multidimensional opinions and heterogeneous bounds of confidence. Second, it will give the bifurcation diagrams of cluster configuration in the homogeneous model with uniformly distributed initial opinions. Third, it will review the several extensions and the evolving phenomena which have been studied so far, and fourth it will state some open questions.

  10. Cooperation of axisymmetric connection elements under dynamic load

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kołodziej Andrzej


    Full Text Available The article presents a method for determining the parameters that define the cooperation of the elements in the axisymmetic connection. The connection, which constitutes a shaft cooperating with a sleeve, has been tested for reaction forces in the connection during shaft rotation in the static sleeve. The shaft was characterized by deliberately modelled roundness deviations in the form of ovality, triangularity and quadrangularity. In addition, the research programme has taken into account the determination of the impact of tolerance of the outside diameter of the shaft. Determination of reaction forces has been carried out using the FEM software. The shaft has been modelled as a rigid element that rotates with a given rotational speed in the deformable sleeve. The conclusions present the impact of roundness deviation types and the tolerance value on reaction forces in the connection restraint. The method presented in the article can be used to predict the behaviour of the elements of axisymmetic connections under dynamic load, which can contribute to forecasting the durability of the connection.

  11. Effect of Recombination in the Evolutionary Dynamics of HIV under the Surveillance of Immune System (United States)

    Peng, Weiqun; Yang, Wenjing; Wang, Guanyu


    Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is a retrovirus that causes acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS), which has become one of the most destructive pandemics in history. The fact that HIV virus evolves very fast plays a central role in AIDS immunopathogenesis and the difficulty we face in finding a cure or a vaccine for AIDS. A distinguishing feature of HIV is its high frequency of recombination. The effect of recombination in the HIV evolution is not clear. We establish a mathematical model of the evolutionary dynamics. This model incorporates both point mutation and recombination for genetic diversity, and employs a fitness function developed by Wang and Deem (PRL 97, 188106, 2006) that accounts for the effect of immune system. Using this model, we explore the role of recombination in the battle between the virus population and the immune system, with a special focus on the condition under which recombination helps the virus population to escape from the immune system.

  12. Integrating count and detection–nondetection data to model population dynamics (United States)

    Zipkin, Elise F.; Rossman, Sam; Yackulic, Charles B.; Wiens, David; Thorson, James T.; Davis, Raymond J.; Grant, Evan H. Campbell


    There is increasing need for methods that integrate multiple data types into a single analytical framework as the spatial and temporal scale of ecological research expands. Current work on this topic primarily focuses on combining capture–recapture data from marked individuals with other data types into integrated population models. Yet, studies of species distributions and trends often rely on data from unmarked individuals across broad scales where local abundance and environmental variables may vary. We present a modeling framework for integrating detection–nondetection and count data into a single analysis to estimate population dynamics, abundance, and individual detection probabilities during sampling. Our dynamic population model assumes that site-specific abundance can change over time according to survival of individuals and gains through reproduction and immigration. The observation process for each data type is modeled by assuming that every individual present at a site has an equal probability of being detected during sampling processes. We examine our modeling approach through a series of simulations illustrating the relative value of count vs. detection–nondetection data under a variety of parameter values and survey configurations. We also provide an empirical example of the model by combining long-term detection–nondetection data (1995–2014) with newly collected count data (2015–2016) from a growing population of Barred Owl (Strix varia) in the Pacific Northwest to examine the factors influencing population abundance over time. Our model provides a foundation for incorporating unmarked data within a single framework, even in cases where sampling processes yield different detection probabilities. This approach will be useful for survey design and to researchers interested in incorporating historical or citizen science data into analyses focused on understanding how demographic rates drive population abundance.

  13. Effects of glyphosate formulations on the population dynamics of two freshwater cladoceran species. (United States)

    Reno, U; Doyle, S R; Momo, F R; Regaldo, L; Gagneten, A M


    The general objective of this work is to experimentally assess the effects of acute glyphosate pollution on two freshwater cladoceran species (Daphnia magna and Ceriodaphnia dubia) and to use this information to predict the population dynamics and the potential for recovery of exposed organisms. Five to six concentrations of four formulations of glyphosate (4-Gly) (Eskoba ® , Panzer Gold ® , Roundup Ultramax ® and Sulfosato Touchdown ® ) were evaluated in both cladoceran species through acute tests and 15-day recovery tests in order to estimate the population dynamics of microcrustaceans. The endpoints of the recovery test were: survival, growth (number of molts), fecundity, and the intrinsic population growth rate (r). A matrix population model (MPM) was applied to r of the survivor individuals of the acute tests, followed by a Monte Carlo simulation study. Among the 4-Gly tested, Sulfosato Touchdown ® was the one that showed higher toxicity, and C. dubia was the most sensitive species. The Monte Carlo simulation study showed an average value of λ always <1 for D. magna, indicating that its populations would not be able to survive under natural environmental conditions after an acute Gly exposure between 0.25 and 35 a.e. mg L -1 . The average value of λ for C. dubia was also <1 after exposure to Roundup Ultramax ® : 1.30 and 1.20 for 1.21 and 2.5 mg a.e. L -1 ,respectively. The combined methodology-recovery tests and the later analysis through MPM with a Monte Carlo simulation study-is proposed to integrate key demographic parameters and predict the possible fate of microcrustacean populations after being exposed to acute 4-Gly contamination events.

  14. Combining a weed traits database with a population dynamics model predicts shifts in weed communities. (United States)

    Storkey, J; Holst, N; Bøjer, O Q; Bigongiali, F; Bocci, G; Colbach, N; Dorner, Z; Riemens, M M; Sartorato, I; Sønderskov, M; Verschwele, A


    A functional approach to predicting shifts in weed floras in response to management or environmental change requires the combination of data on weed traits with analytical frameworks that capture the filtering effect of selection pressures on traits. A weed traits database (WTDB) was designed, populated and analysed, initially using data for 19 common European weeds, to begin to consolidate trait data in a single repository. The initial choice of traits was driven by the requirements of empirical models of weed population dynamics to identify correlations between traits and model parameters. These relationships were used to build a generic model, operating at the level of functional traits, to simulate the impact of increasing herbicide and fertiliser use on virtual weeds along gradients of seed weight and maximum height. The model generated 'fitness contours' (defined as population growth rates) within this trait space in different scenarios, onto which two sets of weed species, defined as common or declining in the UK, were mapped. The effect of increasing inputs on the weed flora was successfully simulated; 77% of common species were predicted to have stable or increasing populations under high fertiliser and herbicide use, in contrast with only 29% of the species that have declined. Future development of the WTDB will aim to increase the number of species covered, incorporate a wider range of traits and analyse intraspecific variability under contrasting management and environments.

  15. Cellular-automata model of the dwarf shrubs populations and communities dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. S. Komarov


    Full Text Available The probabilistic cellular-automata model of development and long-time dynamics of dwarf shrub populations and communities is developed. It is based on the concept of discrete description of the plant ontogenesis and joint model approaches in terms of probabilistic cellular automata and L-systems by Lindenmayer. Short representation of the basic model allows evaluation of the approach and software implementation. The main variables of the model are a number of partial bushes in clones or area projective cover. The model allows us to investigate the conditions of self-maintenance and sustainability population under different environmental conditions (inaccessibility of the territory for settlement, mosaic moisture conditions of soil and wealth. The model provides a forecast of the total biomass dynamics shrubs and their fractions (stems, leaves, roots, fine roots, fruits on the basis of the data obtained in the discrete description of ontogenesis and further information on the productivity of the plant fractions. The inclusion of the joint dynamics of biomass of shrubs and soil in EFIMOD models cycle of carbon and nitrogen to evaluate the role of shrubs in these circulations, especially at high impact, such as forest fires and clear cutting, allow forecasting of the dynamics of populations and ecosystem functions of shrubs (regulation of biogeochemical cycles maintaining biodiversity, participation in the creation of non-wood products with changing climatic conditions and strong damaging effects (logging, fires; and application of the models developed to investigate the stability and productivity of shrubs and their participation in the cycle of carbon and nitrogen in different climatic and edaphic conditions.

  16. Endogenous technological and population change under increasing water scarcity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pande, S.; Ertsen, M.; Sivapalan, M.


    While the proposed model is a rather simple model of a coupled human–water system, it is shown to be capable of replicating patterns of technological, population, production and consumption per capita changes. The model demonstrates that technological change may indeed ameliorate the effects of

  17. Chimera states in a population of identical oscillators under planar ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    below, the d1j plot of all the nodes confirms a single cluster: all oscillators are completely synchronized. With a slight increase in ϵ the whole population splits into two synchro- nized clusters. In contrast to the common notion of attaining symmetry, an inhomogeneity. 232. Pramana – J. Phys., Vol. 84, No. 2, February 2015 ...

  18. Eco-evolutionary feedback promotes Red Queen dynamics and selects for sex in predator populations. (United States)

    Haafke, Julia; Abou Chakra, Maria; Becks, Lutz


    Although numerous hypotheses exist to explain the overwhelming presence of sexual reproduction across the tree of life, we still cannot explain its prevalence when considering all inherent costs involved. The Red Queen hypothesis states that sex is maintained because it can create novel genotypes with a selective advantage. This occurs when the interactions between species induce frequent environmental change. Here, we investigate whether coevolution and eco-evolutionary feedback dynamics in a predator-prey system allows for indirect selection and maintenance of sexual reproduction in the predator. Combining models and chemostat experiments of a rotifer-algae system we show a continuous feedback between population and trait change along with recurrent shifts from selection by predation and competition for a limited resource. We found that a high propensity for sex was indirectly selected and was maintained in rotifer populations within environments containing these eco-evolutionary dynamics; whereas within environments under constant conditions, predators evolved rapidly to lower levels of sex. Thus, our results indicate that the influence of eco-evolutionary feedback dynamics on the overall evolutionary change has been underestimated. © 2016 The Author(s). Evolution © 2016 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  19. Statistical characteristics of dynamics for population migration driven by the economic interests (United States)

    Huo, Jie; Wang, Xu-Ming; Zhao, Ning; Hao, Rui


    Population migration typically occurs under some constraints, which can deeply affect the structure of a society and some other related aspects. Therefore, it is critical to investigate the characteristics of population migration. Data from the China Statistical Yearbook indicate that the regional gross domestic product per capita relates to the population size via a linear or power-law relation. In addition, the distribution of population migration sizes or relative migration strength introduced here is dominated by a shifted power-law relation. To reveal the mechanism that creates the aforementioned distributions, a dynamic model is proposed based on the population migration rule that migration is facilitated by higher financial gains and abated by fewer employment opportunities at the destination, considering the migration cost as a function of the migration distance. The calculated results indicate that the distribution of the relative migration strength is governed by a shifted power-law relation, and that the distribution of migration distances is dominated by a truncated power-law relation. These results suggest the use of a power-law to fit a distribution may be not always suitable. Additionally, from the modeling framework, one can infer that it is the randomness and determinacy that jointly create the scaling characteristics of the distributions. The calculation also demonstrates that the network formed by active nodes, representing the immigration and emigration regions, usually evolves from an ordered state with a non-uniform structure to a disordered state with a uniform structure, which is evidenced by the increasing structural entropy.

  20. Dynamics of a sex-linked deleterious mutation in populations subject to sex reversal.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Markku Karhunen

    Full Text Available The heterogametic sex chromosomes (i.e. mammalian Y and avian W do not usually recombine with the homogametic sex chromosomes which is known to lead into rapid degeneration of Y and W due to accumulation of deleterious mutations. On the other hand, some 96% of amphibian species have homomorphic, i.e. non-degenerate Y chromosomes. Nicolas Perrin's fountain-of-youth hypothesis states that this is a result of recombination between X and Y chromosomes in sex-reversed individuals. In this study, I model the consequences of such recombination for the dynamics of a deleterious mutation occurring in Y chromosomes. As expected, even relatively low levels of sex reversal help to purge deleterious mutations. However, the population-dynamic consequences of this depend on the type of selection that operates on the population undergoing sex reversal. Under fecundity selection, sex reversal can be beneficial for some parameter values, whereas under survival selection, it seems to be always harmful.

  1. Population dynamics of active and total ciliate populations in arable soil amended with wheat

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ekelund, F.; Frederiksen, Helle B.; Ronn, R.


    Soil protozoa are characterized by their ability to produce cysts, which allows them to survive unfavorable conditions (e.g., desiccation) for extended periods. Under favorable conditions, they may rapidly excyst and begin feeding, but even under optimal conditions, a large proportion of the popu......Soil protozoa are characterized by their ability to produce cysts, which allows them to survive unfavorable conditions (e.g., desiccation) for extended periods. Under favorable conditions, they may rapidly excyst and begin feeding, but even under optimal conditions, a large proportion...... microcosms, the active and total populations of ciliates, their potential prey (bacteria and small protozoa), their potential competitors (amoebae, flagellates, and nematodes), and their potential predators (nematodes). We sampled with short time intervals (2 to 6 days) and generated a data set, suitable...... why protozoan growth in soil is less than that in aquatic systems. Internally governed encystment may be an essential adaptation to an unpredictable environment in which individual protozoa cannot predict when the soil will dry out and will survive desiccation only if they have encysted in time....

  2. Effects of demographic structure on key properties of stochastic density-independent population dynamics. (United States)

    Vindenes, Yngvild; Sæther, Bernt-Erik; Engen, Steinar


    The development of stochastic demography has largely been based on age structured populations, although other types of demographic structure, especially permanent and dynamic heterogeneity, are likely common in natural populations. The combination of stochasticity and demographic structure is a challenge for analyses of population dynamics and extinction risk, because the population structure will fluctuate around the stable structure and the population size shows transient fluctuations. However, by using a diffusion approximation for the total reproductive value, density-independent dynamics of structured populations can be described with only three population parameters: the expected population growth rate, the environmental variance and the demographic variance. These parameters depend on population structure via the state-specific vital rates and transition rates. Once they are found, the diffusion approximation represents a substantial reduction in model complexity. Here, we review and compare the key population parameters across a wide range of demographic structure, from the case of no structure to the most general case of dynamic heterogeneity, and for both discrete and continuous types. We focus on the demographic variance, but also show how environmental stochasticity can be included. This study brings together results from recent models, each considering a specific type of population structure, and places them in a general framework for structured populations. Comparison across different types of demographic structure reveals that the reproductive value is an essential concept for understanding how population structure affects stochastic dynamics and extinction risk. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Modeling the impacts of hunting on the population dynamics of red howler monkeys (Alouatta seniculus) (United States)

    Wiederholt, Ruscena; Fernandez-Duque, Eduardo; Diefenbach, Duane R.; Rudran, Rasanayagam


    Overexploitation of wildlife populations occurs across the humid tropics and is a significant threat to the long-term survival of large-bodied primates. To investigate the impacts of hunting on primates and ways to mitigate them, we developed a spatially explicit, individual-based model for a landscape that included hunted and un-hunted areas. We used the large-bodied neotropical red howler monkey (Alouatta seniculus) as our case study species because its life history characteristics make it vulnerable to hunting. We modeled the influence of different rates of harvest and proportions of landscape dedicated to un-hunted reserves on population persistence, population size, social dynamics, and hunting yields of red howler monkeys. In most scenarios, the un-hunted populations maintained a constant density regardless of hunting pressure elsewhere, and allowed the overall population to persist. Therefore, the overall population was quite resilient to extinction; only in scenarios without any un-hunted areas did the population go extinct. However, the total and hunted populations did experience large declines over 100 years under moderate and high hunting pressure. In addition, when reserve area decreased, population losses and losses per unit area increased disproportionately. Furthermore, hunting disrupted the social structure of troops. The number of male turnovers and infanticides increased in hunted populations, while birth rates decreased and exacerbated population losses due to hunting. Finally, our results indicated that when more than 55% of the landscape was harvested at high (30%) rates, hunting yields, as measured by kilograms of biomass, were less than those obtained from moderate harvest rates. Additionally, hunting yields, expressed as the number of individuals hunted/year/km2, increased in proximity to un-hunted areas, and suggested that dispersal from un-hunted areas may have contributed to hunting sustainability. These results indicate that un

  4. Second Cancers After Fractionated Radiotherapy: Stochastic Population Dynamics Effects (United States)

    Sachs, Rainer K.; Shuryak, Igor; Brenner, David; Fakir, Hatim; Hahnfeldt, Philip


    When ionizing radiation is used in cancer therapy it can induce second cancers in nearby organs. Mainly due to longer patient survival times, these second cancers have become of increasing concern. Estimating the risk of solid second cancers involves modeling: because of long latency times, available data is usually for older, obsolescent treatment regimens. Moreover, modeling second cancers gives unique insights into human carcinogenesis, since the therapy involves administering well characterized doses of a well studied carcinogen, followed by long-term monitoring. In addition to putative radiation initiation that produces pre-malignant cells, inactivation (i.e. cell killing), and subsequent cell repopulation by proliferation can be important at the doses relevant to second cancer situations. A recent initiation/inactivation/proliferation (IIP) model characterized quantitatively the observed occurrence of second breast and lung cancers, using a deterministic cell population dynamics approach. To analyze ifradiation-initiated pre-malignant clones become extinct before full repopulation can occur, we here give a stochastic version of this I I model. Combining Monte Carlo simulations with standard solutions for time-inhomogeneous birth-death equations, we show that repeated cycles of inactivation and repopulation, as occur during fractionated radiation therapy, can lead to distributions of pre-malignant cells per patient with variance >> mean, even when pre-malignant clones are Poisson-distributed. Thus fewer patients would be affected, but with a higher probability, than a deterministic model, tracking average pre-malignant cell numbers, would predict. Our results are applied to data on breast cancers after radiotherapy for Hodgkin disease. The stochastic IIP analysis, unlike the deterministic one, indicates: a) initiated, pre-malignant cells can have a growth advantage during repopulation, not just during the longer tumor latency period that follows; b) weekend

  5. Population dynamics of spotted owls in the Sierra Nevada, California (United States)

    Blakesley, J.A.; Seamans, M.E.; Conner, M.M.; Franklin, A.B.; White, Gary C.; Gutierrez, R.J.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.; Munton, T.E.; Shaw, D.W.H.; Keane, J.J.; Steger, G.N.; McDonald, T.L.


    The California spotted owl (Strix occidentalis occidentalis) is the only spotted owl subspecies not listed as threatened or endangered under the United States Endangered Species Act despite petitions to list it as threatened. We conducted a meta-analysis of population data for 4 populations in the southern Cascades and Sierra Nevada, California, USA, from 1990 to 2005 to assist a listing evaluation by the United States Fish and Wildlife Service. Our study areas (from N to S) were on the Lassen National Forest (LAS), Eldorado National Forest (ELD), Sierra National Forest (SIE), and Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks (SKC). These study areas represented a broad spectrum of habitat and management conditions in these mountain ranges. We estimated apparent survival probability, reproductive output, and rate of population change for spotted owls on individual study areas and for all study areas combined (meta-analysis) using model selection or model-averaging based on maximum-likelihood estimation. We followed a formal protocol to conduct this analysis that was similar to other spotted owl meta-analyses. Consistency of field and analytical methods among our studies reduced confounding methodological effects when evaluating results. We used 991 marked spotted owls in the analysis of apparent survival. Apparent survival probability was higher for adult than for subadult owls. There was little difference in apparent survival between male and female owls. Model-averaged mean estimates of apparent survival probability of adult owls varied from 0.811 ?? 0.021 for females at LAS to 0.890 ?? 0.016 for males at SKC. Apparent survival increased over time for owls of all age classes at LAS and SIE, for adults at ELD, and for second-year subadults and adults at SKC. The meta-analysis of apparent survival, which included only adult owls, confirmed an increasing trend in survival over time. Survival rates were higher for owls on SKC than on the other study areas. We analyzed data

  6. Geographic coupling of juvenile and adult habitat shapes spatial population dynamics of a coral reef fish

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huijbers, C.M.; Nagelekerken, I.; Debrot, A.O.; Jongejans, E.


    Marine spatial population dynamics are often addressed with a focus on larval dispersal, without taking into account movement behavior of individuals in later life stages. Processes occurring during demersal life stages may also drive spatial population dynamics if habitat quality is perceived

  7. Dynamic characteristics of multi-walled carbon nanotubes under a ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Abstract. This paper reports the results of an investigation into the effect of transverse magnetic fields on dynamic characteristics of multi-walled carbon nanotubes (MWNTs). Couple dynamic equations of MWNTs subjected to a transverse magnetic field are derived and solved by considering the Lorentz magnetic forces ...

  8. Developing Library Services for the Nomadic Population under the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Basic education in Nigeria under the Universal Basic Education (UBE) Programme provides expanded opportunities to meet the basic learning needs of children, youths and adults in school and out of school. Every library meets the educational and informational needs of an identified community of users by providing ...

  9. Endogenous technological and population change under increasing water scarcity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pande, S.; Ertsen, M.; Sivapalan, M.


    The ancient civilization in the Indus Valley civilization dispersed under extreme dry conditions; there are indications that the same holds for many other ancient societies. Even contemporary societies, such as the one in Murrumbidgee river basin in Australia, have started to witness a decline in

  10. The Impact of Mine Closures on Rural Population Dynamics: The ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The paper examines the demographic and socio-cultural impact of spontaneous population inflows into Zhombe following the closure of the Empress Mine in 1982. Data was collected using a questionnaire survey. Results of the study show that mine closures cause rural population change. The population directly grows ...

  11. Effective population size and evolutionary dynamics in outbred ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Census population size, sex-ratio and female reproductive success were monitored in 10 laboratory populations of Drosophila melanogaster selected for different ages of reproduction. With this demographic information, we estimated eigenvalue, variance and probability of allele loss effective population sizes. We conclude ...

  12. On the apllication of single specie dynamic population model | Iguda ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The Method of mathematical models of Malthus and Verhults were applied on ten years data collected from Magaram Poultry Farm to determine the nature of population growth, population decay or constant ... Keywords: Birth rate, sustainable population, overcrowding, harvesting, independent t-test and one way Anova.

  13. Dynamics of a physiologically structured population in a time-varying environment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heilmann, Irene Louise Torpe; Starke, Jens; Andersen, Ken Haste


    Physiologically structured population models have become a valuable tool to model the dynamics of populations. In a stationary environment such models can exhibit equilibrium solutions as well as periodic solutions. However, for many organisms the environment is not stationary, but varies more...... or less regularly. In order to understand the interaction between an external environmental forcing and the internal dynamics in a population, we examine the response of a physiologically structured population model to a periodic variation in the food resource. We explore the addition of forcing in two...... cases: (A) where the population dynamics is in equilibrium in a stationary environment, and (B) where the population dynamics exhibits a periodic solution in a stationary environment. When forcing is applied in case A, the solutions are mainly periodic. In case B the forcing signal interacts...

  14. Distinct retrosplenial cortex cell populations and their spike dynamics during ketamine-induced unconscious state. (United States)

    Fox, Grace E; Li, Meng; Zhao, Fang; Tsien, Joe Z


    Ketamine is known to induce psychotic-like symptoms, including delirium and visual hallucinations. It also causes neuronal damage and cell death in the retrosplenial cortex (RSC), an area that is thought to be a part of high visual cortical pathways and at least partially responsible for ketamine's psychotomimetic activities. However, the basic physiological properties of RSC cells as well as their response to ketamine in vivo remained largely unexplored. Here, we combine a computational method, the Inter-Spike Interval Classification Analysis (ISICA), and in vivo recordings to uncover and profile excitatory cell subtypes within layers 2&3 and 5&6 of the RSC in mice within both conscious, sleep, and ketamine-induced unconscious states. We demonstrate two distinct excitatory principal cell sub-populations, namely, high-bursting excitatory principal cells and low-bursting excitatory principal cells, within layers 2&3, and show that this classification is robust over the conscious states, namely quiet awake, and natural unconscious sleep periods. Similarly, we provide evidence of high-bursting and low-bursting excitatory principal cell sub-populations within layers 5&6 that remained distinct during quiet awake and sleep states. We further examined how these subtypes are dynamically altered by ketamine. During ketamine-induced unconscious state, these distinct excitatory principal cell subtypes in both layer 2&3 and layer 5&6 exhibited distinct dynamics. We also uncovered different dynamics of local field potential under various brain states in layer 2&3 and layer 5&6. Interestingly, ketamine administration induced high gamma oscillations in layer 2&3 of the RSC, but not layer 5&6. Our results show that excitatory principal cells within RSC layers 2&3 and 5&6 contain multiple physiologically distinct sub-populations, and they are differentially affected by ketamine.

  15. Word class and context affect alpha-band oscillatory dynamics in an older population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monika eMellem


    Full Text Available Differences in the oscillatory EEG dynamics of reading open class and closed class words have previously been found (Bastiaansen et al., 2005 and are thought to reflect differences in lexical-semantic content between these word classes. In particular, the theta band (4–7 Hz seems to play a prominent role in lexical-semantic retrieval. We tested whether this theta effect is robust in an older population of subjects. Additionally, we examined how the context of a word can modulate the oscillatory dynamics underlying retrieval for the two different classes of words. Older participants (mean age 55 read words presented in either syntactically-correct sentences or in a scrambled order (scrambled sentence while their EEG was recorded. We performed time-frequency analysis to examine how power varied based on the context or class of the word. We observed larger power decreases in the alpha (8–12Hz band between 200–700 ms for the open class compared to closed class words, but this was true only for the scrambled sentence context. We did not observe differences in theta power between these conditions. Context exerted an effect on the alpha and low beta (13–18 Hz bands between 0–700 ms. These results suggest that the previously observed word class effects on theta power changes in a younger participant sample do not seem to be a robust effect in this older population. Though this is an indirect comparison between studies, it may suggest the existence of aging effects on word retrieval dynamics for different populations. Additionally, the interaction between word class and context suggests that word retrieval mechanisms interact with sentence-level comprehension mechanisms in the alpha band.

  16. Distinct retrosplenial cortex cell populations and their spike dynamics during ketamine-induced unconscious state.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grace E Fox

    Full Text Available Ketamine is known to induce psychotic-like symptoms, including delirium and visual hallucinations. It also causes neuronal damage and cell death in the retrosplenial cortex (RSC, an area that is thought to be a part of high visual cortical pathways and at least partially responsible for ketamine's psychotomimetic activities. However, the basic physiological properties of RSC cells as well as their response to ketamine in vivo remained largely unexplored. Here, we combine a computational method, the Inter-Spike Interval Classification Analysis (ISICA, and in vivo recordings to uncover and profile excitatory cell subtypes within layers 2&3 and 5&6 of the RSC in mice within both conscious, sleep, and ketamine-induced unconscious states. We demonstrate two distinct excitatory principal cell sub-populations, namely, high-bursting excitatory principal cells and low-bursting excitatory principal cells, within layers 2&3, and show that this classification is robust over the conscious states, namely quiet awake, and natural unconscious sleep periods. Similarly, we provide evidence of high-bursting and low-bursting excitatory principal cell sub-populations within layers 5&6 that remained distinct during quiet awake and sleep states. We further examined how these subtypes are dynamically altered by ketamine. During ketamine-induced unconscious state, these distinct excitatory principal cell subtypes in both layer 2&3 and layer 5&6 exhibited distinct dynamics. We also uncovered different dynamics of local field potential under various brain states in layer 2&3 and layer 5&6. Interestingly, ketamine administration induced high gamma oscillations in layer 2&3 of the RSC, but not layer 5&6. Our results show that excitatory principal cells within RSC layers 2&3 and 5&6 contain multiple physiologically distinct sub-populations, and they are differentially affected by ketamine.

  17. Behaviour of steel arch supports under dynamic effects of rockbursts

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Horyl, P.; Šňupárek, Richard


    Roč. 116, č. 3 (2007), s. 119-128 ISSN 0371-7844 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30860518 Keywords : steel arch support * rockbursts * dynamic loading Subject RIV: DH - Mining , incl. Coal Mining

  18. Features wear nodes mechanization wing aircraft operating under dynamic loads

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    А.М. Хімко


    Full Text Available  The conducted researches of titanic alloy ВТ-22 at dynamic loading with cycled sliding and dynamic loading in conditions of rolling with slipping. It is established that roller jamming in the carriage increases wear of rod of mechanization of a wing to twenty times. The optimum covering for strengthening wearied sites and restoration of working surfaces of wing’s mechanization rod is defined.

  19. A new ODE tumor growth modeling based on tumor population dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oroji, Amin; Omar, Mohd bin [Institute of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science University of Malaya, 50603 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, (Malaysia); Yarahmadian, Shantia [Mathematics Department Mississippi State University, USA (United States)


    In this paper a new mathematical model for the population of tumor growth treated by radiation is proposed. The cells dynamics population in each state and the dynamics of whole tumor population are studied. Furthermore, a new definition of tumor lifespan is presented. Finally, the effects of two main parameters, treatment parameter (q), and repair mechanism parameter (r) on tumor lifespan are probed, and it is showed that the change in treatment parameter (q) highly affects the tumor lifespan.

  20. A new ODE tumor growth modeling based on tumor population dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oroji, Amin; Omar, Mohd bin; Yarahmadian, Shantia


    In this paper a new mathematical model for the population of tumor growth treated by radiation is proposed. The cells dynamics population in each state and the dynamics of whole tumor population are studied. Furthermore, a new definition of tumor lifespan is presented. Finally, the effects of two main parameters, treatment parameter (q), and repair mechanism parameter (r) on tumor lifespan are probed, and it is showed that the change in treatment parameter (q) highly affects the tumor lifespan

  1. Mapping Application for Penguin Populations and Projected Dynamics (MAPPPD): Data and Tools for Dynamic Management and Decision Support (United States)

    Humphries, G. R. W.; Naveen, R.; Schwaller, M.; Che-Castaldo, C.; McDowall, P.; Schrimpf, M.; Schrimpf, Michael; Lynch, H. J.


    The Mapping Application for Penguin Populations and Projected Dynamics (MAPPPD) is a web-based, open access, decision-support tool designed to assist scientists, non-governmental organizations and policy-makers working to meet the management objectives as set forth by the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) and other components of the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS) (that is, Consultative Meetings and the ATS Committee on Environmental Protection). MAPPPD was designed specifically to complement existing efforts such as the CCAMLR Ecosystem Monitoring Program (CEMP) and the ATS site guidelines for visitors. The database underlying MAPPPD includes all publicly available (published and unpublished) count data on emperor, gentoo, Adelie) and chinstrap penguins in Antarctica. Penguin population models are used to assimilate available data into estimates of abundance for each site and year.Results are easily aggregated across multiple sites to obtain abundance estimates over any user-defined area of interest. A front end web interface located at provides free and ready access to the most recent count and modelled data, and can act as a facilitator for data transfer between scientists and Antarctic stakeholders to help inform management decisions for the continent.

  2. Collective Dynamics of Belief Evolution under Cognitive Coherence and Social Conformity. (United States)

    Rodriguez, Nathaniel; Bollen, Johan; Ahn, Yong-Yeol


    Human history has been marked by social instability and conflict, often driven by the irreconcilability of opposing sets of beliefs, ideologies, and religious dogmas. The dynamics of belief systems has been studied mainly from two distinct perspectives, namely how cognitive biases lead to individual belief rigidity and how social influence leads to social conformity. Here we propose a unifying framework that connects cognitive and social forces together in order to study the dynamics of societal belief evolution. Each individual is endowed with a network of interacting beliefs that evolves through interaction with other individuals in a social network. The adoption of beliefs is affected by both internal coherence and social conformity. Our framework may offer explanations for how social transitions can arise in otherwise homogeneous populations, how small numbers of zealots with highly coherent beliefs can overturn societal consensus, and how belief rigidity protects fringe groups and cults against invasion from mainstream beliefs, allowing them to persist and even thrive in larger societies. Our results suggest that strong consensus may be insufficient to guarantee social stability, that the cognitive coherence of belief-systems is vital in determining their ability to spread, and that coherent belief-systems may pose a serious problem for resolving social polarization, due to their ability to prevent consensus even under high levels of social exposure. We argue that the inclusion of cognitive factors into a social model could provide a more complete picture of collective human dynamics.

  3. Data Driven Approach for High Resolution Population Distribution and Dynamics Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bhaduri, Budhendra L [ORNL; Bright, Eddie A [ORNL; Rose, Amy N [ORNL; Liu, Cheng [ORNL; Urban, Marie L [ORNL; Stewart, Robert N [ORNL


    High resolution population distribution data are vital for successfully addressing critical issues ranging from energy and socio-environmental research to public health to human security. Commonly available population data from Census is constrained both in space and time and does not capture population dynamics as functions of space and time. This imposes a significant limitation on the fidelity of event-based simulation models with sensitive space-time resolution. This paper describes ongoing development of high-resolution population distribution and dynamics models, at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, through spatial data integration and modeling with behavioral or activity-based mobility datasets for representing temporal dynamics of population. The model is resolved at 1 km resolution globally and describes the U.S. population for nighttime and daytime at 90m. Integration of such population data provides the opportunity to develop simulations and applications in critical infrastructure management from local to global scales.

  4. Effects of seven diets on the population dynamics of laboratory cultured Tisbe holothuriae Humes (Copepoda, Harpacticoida) (United States)

    Miliou, H.; Moraïtou-Apostolopoulou, M.


    The harpacticoid copepod Tisbe holothuriae was collected from Saronicos Gulf (Greece) and reared under constant laboratory conditions. In order to study the effects of food on the population dynamics, seven diets were tested: the seaweed Ulva; five artificial compound feeds: the liquid Fryfood® (Waterlife), a powder of Mytilus, yeast, soya and Spirulina, respectively; and a mixed diet consisting of Ulva and Fryfood. The life cycle parameters (mortality, sex ratio, generation time, offspring production) were measured, and the demographic variables [mean generation time (T), net reproductive rate (Ro), and intrinsic rate of natural increase (rm)] were determined. As to their efficiency regarding population dynamics, the diets ranked as follows: (1) Ulva+Fryfood, (2), Ulva, (3) Fryfood, (4) Mytilus, (5) soya, (6) yeast, and (7) Spirulina. In this order they cause a progressive increase of both larval mortality and generation time, a progressive decrease of sex ratio, number of offspring per egg sac, number of egg sacs per female and, consequently, of Ro and rm. The observed differences between diets were most pronounced with respect to offspring production. Of the compound diets, those containing animal extracts were more efficient than those containing vegetable materials. Ulva plays an important role in the nutrition of T. holothuriae, favouring offspring production as well as larval survival, development and pigmentation. Ulva in combination with Fryfood led to a greater copepodid survival and offspring production. This mixed diet proved to be the most favourable for rearing the Greek population of t. holothuriae, resulting in an efficient intrinsic rate of natural increase (rm=0.304) of the population.

  5. Intraspecific Competition and Population Dynamics of Aedes aegypti (United States)

    Paixão, C. A.; Charret, I. C.; Lima, R. R.


    We report computational simulations for the evolution of the population of the dengue vector, Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. The results suggest that controlling the mosquito population, on the basis of intraspecific competition at the larval stage, can be an efficient mechanism for controlling the spread of the epidemic. The results also show the presence of a kind of genetic evolution in vector population, which results mainly in increasing the average lifespan of individuals in adulthood.

  6. Dynamics of range margins for metapopulations under climate change (United States)

    Anderson, B.J.; Akçakaya, H.R.; Araújo, M.B.; Fordham, D.A.; Martinez-Meyer, E.; Thuiller, W.; Brook, B.W.


    We link spatially explicit climate change predictions to a dynamic metapopulation model. Predictions of species' responses to climate change, incorporating metapopulation dynamics and elements of dispersal, allow us to explore the range margin dynamics for two lagomorphs of conservation concern. Although the lagomorphs have very different distribution patterns, shifts at the edge of the range were more pronounced than shifts in the overall metapopulation. For Romerolagus diazi (volcano rabbit), the lower elevation range limit shifted upslope by approximately 700 m. This reduced the area occupied by the metapopulation, as the mountain peak currently lacks suitable vegetation. For Lepus timidus (European mountain hare), we modelled the British metapopulation. Increasing the dispersive estimate caused the metapopulation to shift faster on the northern range margin (leading edge). By contrast, it caused the metapopulation to respond to climate change slower, rather than faster, on the southern range margin (trailing edge). The differential responses of the leading and trailing range margins and the relative sensitivity of range limits to climate change compared with that of the metapopulation centroid have important implications for where conservation monitoring should be targeted. Our study demonstrates the importance and possibility of moving from simple bioclimatic envelope models to second-generation models that incorporate both dynamic climate change and metapopulation dynamics. PMID:19324811

  7. Optimized maritime emergency resource allocation under dynamic demand.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenfen Zhang

    Full Text Available Emergency resource is important for people evacuation and property rescue when accident occurs. The relief efforts could be promoted by a reasonable emergency resource allocation schedule in advance. As the marine environment is complicated and changeful, the place, type, severity of maritime accident is uncertain and stochastic, bringing about dynamic demand of emergency resource. Considering dynamic demand, how to make a reasonable emergency resource allocation schedule is challenging. The key problem is to determine the optimal stock of emergency resource for supplier centers to improve relief efforts. This paper studies the dynamic demand, and which is defined as a set. Then a maritime emergency resource allocation model with uncertain data is presented. Afterwards, a robust approach is developed and used to make sure that the resource allocation schedule performs well with dynamic demand. Finally, a case study shows that the proposed methodology is feasible in maritime emergency resource allocation. The findings could help emergency manager to schedule the emergency resource allocation more flexibly in terms of dynamic demand.

  8. Population dynamics of pond zooplankton, I. Diaptomus pallidus Herrick (United States)

    Armitage, K.B.; Saxena, B.; Angino, E.E.


    The simultaneous and lag relationships between 27 environmental variables and seven population components of a perennial calanoid copepod were examined by simple and partial correlations and stepwise regression. The analyses consistently explained more than 70% of the variation of a population component. The multiple correlation coefficient (R) usually was highest in no lag or in 3-week or 4-week lag except for clutch size in which R was highest in 1-week lag. Population control, egg-bearing, and clutch size were affected primarily by environmental components categorized as weather; food apparently was relatively minor in affecting population control or reproduction. ?? 1973 Dr. W. Junk B.V. Publishers.

  9. Population dynamics of Armigeres subalbatus (Diptera: Culicidae) across a temperate altitudinal gradient. (United States)

    Chaves, L F; Imanishi, N; Hoshi, T


    Understanding the impacts of weather fluctuations, and environmental gradients, on the abundance of vectors is fundamental to grasp the dynamic nature of the entomological risk for disease transmission. The mosquito Armigeres subalbatus (Coquillet) is a common vector of filariasis. Nevertheless, its population dynamics have been relatively poorly studied. Here, we present results from a season long study where we studied spatio-temporal abundance patterns of Ar. subalbatus across the altitudinal gradient of Mt. Konpira in Nagasaki, Japan. Spatially, we found that abundance of adult Ar. subalbatus decreased with altitude and increased in areas where the ground was rich in leaf litter. Similarly, adult activity was observed only when relative humidity was over 65%. Temporally, we found that peaks in abundance followed large rainfall events. Nevertheless, this mosquito was under significant density dependence regulation. Our results suggest that Ar. subalbatus population peaks following large rainfall events could reflect the recruitment of individuals that were dormant as dry eggs. We did not find a clear signal of temperature on abundance changes of this mosquito, but only on its phenology. Since ground cover seemed more critical than temperature to its spatial distribution, we propose that this mosquito might have some degree of autonomy to changes in temperature.

  10. The Effects of Predator Evolution and Genetic Variation on Predator-Prey Population-Level Dynamics. (United States)

    Cortez, Michael H; Patel, Swati


    This paper explores how predator evolution and the magnitude of predator genetic variation alter the population-level dynamics of predator-prey systems. We do this by analyzing a general eco-evolutionary predator-prey model using four methods: Method 1 identifies how eco-evolutionary feedbacks alter system stability in the fast and slow evolution limits; Method 2 identifies how the amount of standing predator genetic variation alters system stability; Method 3 identifies how the phase lags in predator-prey cycles depend on the amount of genetic variation; and Method 4 determines conditions for different cycle shapes in the fast and slow evolution limits using geometric singular perturbation theory. With these four methods, we identify the conditions under which predator evolution alters system stability and shapes of predator-prey cycles, and how those effect depend on the amount of genetic variation in the predator population. We discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each method and the relations between the four methods. This work shows how the four methods can be used in tandem to make general predictions about eco-evolutionary dynamics and feedbacks.

  11. Numerical dynamic analysis of stiffened plates under blast loading

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H.R. Tavakoli

    Full Text Available Using the general purpose finite element package Abaqus, an investigation has been carried out to examine the dynamic response of steel stiffened plates subjected to uniform blast loading. The main objective of this study is to determine the dynamic response of the stiffened plates considering the effect of stiffener configurations. Several parameters, such as boundary conditions, mesh dependency and strain rate, have been considered in this study. Special emphasis is focused on the evaluation of midpoint displacements and energy of models. The modeling techniques were described in details. The numerical results provide better insight into the effect of stiffener configurations on the nonlinear dynamic response of the stiffened plates subjected to uniform blast loading.

  12. Dynamic Pricing for Airline Revenue Management under Passenger Mental Accounting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yusheng Hu


    Full Text Available Mental accounting is a far-reaching concept, which is often used to explain various kinds of irrational behaviors in human decision making process. This paper investigates dynamic pricing problems for single-flight and multiple flights settings, respectively, where passengers may be affected by mental accounting. We analyze dynamic pricing problems by means of the dynamic programming method and obtain the optimal pricing strategies. Further, we analytically show that the passenger mental accounting depth has a positive effect on the flight’s expected revenue for the single flight and numerically illustrate that the passenger mental accounting depth has a positive effect on the optimal prices for the multiple flights.

  13. An examination of the population dynamics of syngnathid fishes within Tampa Bay, Florida, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heather D. MASONJONES, Emily ROSE, Lori Benson McRAE,Danielle L. DIXSON


    Full Text Available Seagrass ecosystems worldwide have been declining, leading to a decrease in associated fish populations, especially those with low mobility such as syngnathids (pipefish and seahorses. This two-year pilot study investigated seasonal patterns in density, growth, site fidelity, and population dynamics of Tampa Bay (FL syngnathid fishes at a site adjacent to two marinas under construction. Using a modified mark-recapture technique, fish were collected periodically from three closely located sites that varied in seagrass species (Thalassia spp., Syringodium spp., and mixed-grass sites and their distance from open water, but had consistent physical/chemical environmental characteristics. Fish were marked, photographed for body size and gender measurements, and released the same day at the capture site. Of the 5695 individuals surveyed, 49 individuals were recaptured, indicating a large, flexible population. Population density peaks were observed in July of both years, with low densities in late winter and late summer. Spatially, syngnathid densities were highest closest to the mouth of the bay and lowest near the shoreline. Seven species of syngnathid fishes were observed, and species-specific patterns of seagrass use emerged during the study. However, only two species, Syngnathus scovelli and Hippocampus zosterae, were observed at high frequencies. For these two species, body size decreased across the study period, but while S. scovelli’s population density decreased, H. zosterae’s increased. Across six of the seven species, population size declined over the course of this preliminary study; however, seasonal shifts were impossible to distinguish from potential anthropogenic effects of construction [Current Zoology 56 (1: 118–133, 2010].

  14. Stochastic demography and population dynamics in the red kangaroo Macropus rufus. (United States)

    Jonzén, Niclas; Pople, Tony; Knape, Jonas; Sköld, Martin


    1. Many organisms inhabit strongly fluctuating environments but their demography and population dynamics are often analysed using deterministic models and elasticity analysis, where elasticity is defined as the proportional change in population growth rate caused by a proportional change in a vital rate. Deterministic analyses may not necessarily be informative because large variation in a vital rate with a small deterministic elasticity may affect the population growth rate more than a small change in a less variable vital rate having high deterministic elasticity. 2. We analyse a stochastic environment model of the red kangaroo (Macropus rufus), a species inhabiting an environment characterized by unpredictable and highly variable rainfall, and calculate the elasticity of the stochastic growth rate with respect to the mean and variability in vital rates. 3. Juvenile survival is the most variable vital rate but a proportional change in the mean adult survival rate has a much stronger effect on the stochastic growth rate. 4. Even if changes in average rainfall have a larger impact on population growth rate, increased variability in rainfall may still be important also in long-lived species. The elasticity with respect to the standard deviation of rainfall is comparable to the mean elasticities of all vital rates but the survival in age class 3 because increased variation in rainfall affects both the mean and variability of vital rates. 5. Red kangaroos are harvested and, under the current rainfall pattern, an annual harvest fraction of c. 20% would yield a stochastic growth rate about unity. However, if average rainfall drops by more than c. 10%, any level of harvesting may be unsustainable, emphasizing the need for integrating climate change predictions in population management and increase our understanding of how environmental stochasticity translates into population growth rate.

  15. Spatio-temporal dynamics of a fish predator: Density-dependent and hydrographic effects on Baltic Sea cod population.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valerio Bartolino

    Full Text Available Understanding the mechanisms of spatial population dynamics is crucial for the successful management of exploited species and ecosystems. However, the underlying mechanisms of spatial distribution are generally complex due to the concurrent forcing of both density-dependent species interactions and density-independent environmental factors. Despite the high economic value and central ecological importance of cod in the Baltic Sea, the drivers of its spatio-temporal population dynamics have not been analytically investigated so far. In this paper, we used an extensive trawl survey dataset in combination with environmental data to investigate the spatial dynamics of the distribution of the Eastern Baltic cod during the past three decades using Generalized Additive Models. The results showed that adult cod distribution was mainly affected by cod population size, and to a minor degree by small-scale hydrological factors and the extent of suitable reproductive areas. As population size decreases, the cod population concentrates to the southern part of the Baltic Sea, where the preferred more marine environment conditions are encountered. Using the fitted models, we predicted the Baltic cod distribution back to the 1970s and a temporal index of cod spatial occupation was developed. Our study will contribute to the management and conservation of this important resource and of the ecosystem where it occurs, by showing the forces shaping its spatial distribution and therefore the potential response of the population to future exploitation and environmental changes.

  16. The population and evolutionary dynamics of Vibrio cholerae and its bacteriophage: conditions for maintaining phage-limited communities. (United States)

    Wei, Yan; Kirby, Amy; Levin, Bruce R


    Although bacteriophage have been reported to be the most abundant organisms on earth, little is known about their contribution to the ecology of natural communities of their host bacteria. Most importantly, what role do these viral parasitoids play in regulating the densities of bacterial populations? To address this question, we use experimental communities of Vibrio cholerae and its phage in continuous culture, and we use mathematical models to explore the population dynamic and evolutionary conditions under which phage, rather than resources, will limit the densities of these bacteria. The results of our experiments indicate that single species of bacterial viruses cannot maintain the density of V. cholerae populations at levels much lower than that anticipated on the basis of resources alone. On the other hand, as few as two species of phage can maintain these bacteria at densities more than two orders of magnitude lower than the densities of the corresponding phage-free controls for extensive periods. Using mathematical models and short-term experiments, we explore the population dynamic processes responsible for these results. We discuss the implications of this experimental and theoretical study for the population and evolutionary dynamics of natural populations of bacteria and phage.

  17. Tree Population Dynamics on a Floodplain: A Tradeoff between Tree Mortality and Seedling Recruitment Induced by Stochastic Floods (United States)

    Miyamoto, H.; Kimura, R.


    This presentation proposes a stochastic evaluation method for examining tree population states in a river cross section using an integrated model with Monte Carlo simulation. The integrated model consists of four processes as sub-models, i.e., tree population dynamics, flow discharge stochasticity, stream hydraulics, and channel geomorphology. A floodplain of the Kako River in Japan was examined as a test site, which is currently well vegetated and features many willows that have been growing in both individual size and overall population over the last several decades. The model was used to stochastically evaluate the effects of hydrologic and geomorphologic changes on tree population dynamics through the Monte Carlo simulation. The effects including the magnitude of flood impacts and the relative change in the floodplain level are examined using very simple scenarios for flow regulation, climate change, and channel form changes. The stochastic evaluation method revealed a tradeoff point in floodplain levels, at which the tendency of a fully vegetated state switches to that of a bare floodplain under small impacts of flood. It is concluded from these results that the states of tree population in a floodplain can be determined by the mutual interactions among flood impacts, seedling recruitment, tree growth, and channel geomorphology. These interactions make it difficult to obtain a basic understanding of tree population dynamics from a field study of a specific floodplain. The stochastic approach used in this presentation could constitute an effective method for evaluating fundamental channel characteristics for a vegetated floodplain.

  18. Population Dynamics and Natural Resources in the Volta in the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Also, population growth is causing shortfalls in agricultural land, deforestation and high demand on water resources in some of the sub-basins of the Volta River Keywords: Population, Natural resources, Volta River Basin, Human Settlement Land Use/Coverage Change Ghana Journal of Development Studies Vol.

  19. Demographic processes in a local population: seasonal dynamics of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... differences in daily recruitment and within-patch survival rates. Males were most abundant relative to females early in the season, indicating protandry. Total adult population size was small and showed dramatic variation between the two years, indicating how vulnerable the local population is to demographic extinction.

  20. Demographic processes in a local population: seasonal dynamics of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dr Francis

    every marked individual in the population has the same survival probability between two successive samples; and (2) the probability of capture is the same for all individuals in the population. Results of the full ..... Pollock KH, Nichols JD, Brownie C & Hines JE (1990) Statistical inference for capture-recapture experiments.

  1. Changes in Plasmodium Falciparum Population Dynamics in Two ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Changing the malaria epidemiology will affect the genetic diversity of Plasmodium falciparum. We studied the association between diversity at the merozoite surface protein 2 loci and the severity of disease in childhood malaria in two populations and at different time periods in Ibadan, southwest Nigeria. Population A ...

  2. Growth dynamics of Dracaena cinnabari under controlled conditions as the most effective way to protect endangered species


    Hubálková, Irena; Maděra, Petr; Volařík, Daniel


    Dracaena cinnabari Balf. fil. is an endangered endemic species growing on the Yemeni island of Soqotra. Dracaena woodlands are considered as one of the oldest forest communities on Earth. Uncontrolled grazing unfortunately caused a lack of naturally occurring regeneration. Our two-year research was focused on the growth dynamics of Dracaena seedlings from two separate populations. One hundred of germinated seeds from two different altitudes from the island were sown and planted under the same...

  3. The 'Natural Laboratory', a tool for deciphering growth, lifetime and population dynamics in larger benthic foraminifera (United States)

    Hohenegger, Johann


    The shells of symbiont-bearing larger benthic Foraminifera (LBF) represent the response to physiological requirements in dependence of environmental conditions. All compartments of the shell such as chambers and chamberlets accommodate the growth of the cell protoplasm and are adaptations for housing photosymbiotic algae. Investigations on the biology of LBF were predominantly based on laboratory studies. The lifetime of LBF under natural conditions is still unclear. LBF, which can build >100 chambers during their lifetime, are thought to live at least one year under natural conditions. This is supported by studies on population dynamics of eulittoral foraminifera. In species characterized by a time-restricted single reproduction period the mean size of specimens increases from small to large during lifetime simultaneously reducing individual number. This becomes more complex when two or more reproduction times are present within a one-year cycle leading to a mixture of abundant small individuals with few large specimens during the year, while keeping mean size more or less constant. This mixture is typical for most sublittoral megalospheric (gamonts or schizonts) LBF. Nothing is known on the lifetime of agamonts, the diploid asexually reproducing generation. In all hyaline LBF it is thought to be significantly longer than 1 year based on the large size and considering the mean chamber building rate of the gamont/schizonts. Observations on LBF under natural conditions have not been performed yet in the deeper sublittoral. This reflects the difficulties due to intense hydrodynamics that hinder deploying technical equipment for studies in the natural environment. Therefore, studying growth, lifetime and reproduction of sublittoral LBF under natural conditions can be performed using the so-called 'natural laboratory' in comparison with laboratory investigations. The best sampling method in the upper sublittoral from 5 to 70 m depth is by SCUBA diving. Irregular

  4. Characteristics and modeling of spruce wood under dynamic compression load

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eisenacher, Germar


    Spruce wood is frequently used as an energy absorbing material in impact limiters of packages for the transportation of radioactive material. A 9m drop test onto an unyielding target is mandatory for the packages. The impact results in a dynamic compression load of the spruce wood inside the impact limiter. The lateral dilation of the wood is restrained thereby due to encasing steel sheets. This work's objective was to provide a material model for spruce wood based on experimental investigations to enable the calculation of such loading conditions. About 600 crush tests with cubical spruce wood specimens were performed to characterize the material. The compression was up to 70% and the material was assumed to be transversely isotropic. Particularly the lateral constraint showed to have an important effect: the material develops a high lateral dilation without lateral constraint. The force-displacement characteristics show a comparably low force level and no or only slight hardening. Distinctive softening occurs after the linear-elastic region when loaded parallel to the fiber. On the other hand, using a lateral constraint results in significantly higher general force levels, distinctive hardening and lateral forces. The softening effect when loaded parallel to the fiber is less distinctive. Strain rate and temperature raise or lower the strength level, which was quantified for the applicable ranges of impact limiters. The hypothesis of an uncoupled evolution of the yield surface was proposed based on the experimental findings. It postulates an independent strength evolution with deviatoric and volumetric deformation. The hypothesis could be established using the first modeling approach, the modified LS-DYNA material model MAT075. A transversely isotropic material model was developed based thereupon and implemented in LS-DYNA. The material characteristics of spruce wood were considered using a multi-surface yield criterion and a non-associated flow rule. The yield

  5. Simulation of Forestland Dynamics in a Typical Deforestation and Afforestation Area under Climate Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qun'ou Jiang


    Full Text Available Forestland dynamics can affect the ecological security of a country and even the global environment, and therefore it is of great practical significance to understand the characteristics of temporal and spatial variations of forestland. Taking Jiangxi Province as the study area, this study first explored the driving mechanism of the natural environment and social economy on deforestation and afforestation using a simultaneous equation model. The results indicate that population size, topographic and geomorphologic factors, climate, and location play leading roles in influencing forestland density fluctuations. Specifically, the population size, economic development level, gross value of forestry production, climate conditions, and government policies are key influencing factors of afforestation. Deforestation is mainly influenced by agricultural population, non-agricultural economy, forestry production, forestry density, location, transportation, and climate. In addition, this study simulated the spatial distribution of land use and analyzed the spatial characteristics and variation trends of forestland area and quality under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs climate scenarios from 2010 to 2030 using the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects (CLUE model. The results indicate that forestland declines under the Asia-Pacific integrated model (AIM climate scenario. The environment tends to be heavily damaged under this kind of scenarios, and measures should be taken in order to protect the environment. Although the model for energy supply strategy alternatives and their general environmental impact (MESSAGE scenario is to some extent better than the AIM scenario, destruction of the environment will still occur, and it is necessary to restrain deforestation and convert shrub land into forestland or garden land. These results can provide significant information for environmental protection, forest resource exploitation, and utilization

  6. Absorption and emission dynamics in concentrated optical ensembles under laser excitation (United States)

    Smirnov, V. A.; Ermolaeva, G. M.; Shilov, V. B.


    A new theoretical model describing the emission and absorption dynamics in an ensemble of molecules under intense coherent pulsed pumping is developed on the basis of the concepts of cooperative light-induced luminescence (CLIL). The CLIL development is described within the framework of formalism of the system density matrix in the space of photon wave functions. It is shown that the fast growth of CLIL relates to the development of coherent states of the quantum field in the area of efficient cooperative interactions of molecules (coherence volume). A system of equations for the calculation of CLIL energy, population of excited states, and optical absorption of the system in dependence on the laser pump energy density is solved. The theoretical results obtained are in good agreement with the experimental data.

  7. Entanglement dynamics of two interacting qubits under the influence ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)


    qubit system in the non-Markovian setting. A quantum ... time-scales in an open system exist to characterize non-. Markovian dynamics: (i) the ...... [15] H P Beuer and F Petruccione, The theory of open quantum systems (Oxford ...

  8. Plant species dynamics in the Southern Tall Grassveld under ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    An analysis of temporal changes in botanical composition in a long-term grazing trial indicates that species dynamics in the Southern Tall Grassveld of Natal are determined by the specific combination of grazing, mowing and fire impacts. Species composition of a grazing systems trial was recorded at intervals during 16 ...

  9. Nonlinear Dynamics of Carbon Nanotubes Under Large Electrostatic Force

    KAUST Repository

    Xu, Tiantian


    Because of the inherent nonlinearities involving the behavior of CNTs when excited by electrostatic forces, modeling and simulating their behavior is challenging. The complicated form of the electrostatic force describing the interaction of their cylindrical shape, forming upper electrodes, to lower electrodes poises serious computational challenges. This presents an obstacle against applying and using several nonlinear dynamics tools typically used to analyze the behavior of complicated nonlinear systems undergoing large motion, such as shooting, continuation, and integrity analysis techniques. This works presents an attempt to resolve this issue. We present an investigation of the nonlinear dynamics of carbon nanotubes when actuated by large electrostatic forces. We study expanding the complicated form of the electrostatic force into enough number of terms of the Taylor series. Then, we utilize this form along with an Euler-Bernoulli beam model to study for the first time the dynamic behavior of CNTs when excited by large electrostatic force. The geometric nonlinearity and the nonlinear electrostatic force are considered. An efficient reduced-order model (ROM) based on the Galerkin method is developed and utilized to simulate the static and dynamic responses of the CNTs. Several results are generated demonstrating softening and hardening behavior of the CNTs near their primary and secondary resonances. The effects of the DC and AC voltage loads on the behavior have been studied. The impacts of the initial slack level and CNT diameter are also demonstrated.


    KAUST Repository

    Xu, Tiantian


    Because of the inherent nonlinearities involving the behavior of CNTs when excited by electrostatic forces, modeling and simulating their behavior is challenging. The complicated form of the electrostatic force describing the interaction of their cylindrical shape, forming upper electrodes, to lower electrodes poises serious computational challenges. This presents an obstacle against applying and using several nonlinear dynamics tools typically used to analyze the behavior of complicated nonlinear systems undergoing large motion, such as shooting, continuation, and integrity analysis techniques. This works presents an attempt to resolve this issue. We present an investigation of the nonlinear dynamics of carbon nanotubes when actuated by large electrostatic forces. We study expanding the complicated form of the electrostatic force into enough number of terms of the Taylor series. Then, we utilize this form along with an Euler-Bernoulli beam model to study for the first time the dynamic behavior of CNTs when excited by large electrostatic force. The geometric nonlinearity and the nonlinear electrostatic force are considered. An efficient reduced-order model (ROM) based on the Galerkin method is developed and utilized to simulate the static and dynamic responses of the CNTs. Several results are generated demonstrating softening and hardening behavior of the CNTs near their primary and secondary resonances. The effects of the DC and AC voltage loads on the behavior have been studied. The impacts of the initial slack level and CNT diameter are also demonstrated.

  11. Environmental variability and population dynamics: Do European and North American ducks play by the same rules? (United States)

    Pöysä, Hannu; Rintala, Jukka; Johnson, Douglas H.; Kauppinen, Jukka; Lammi, Esa; Nudds, Thomas D.; Väänänen, Veli-Matti


    Density dependence, population regulation, and variability in population size are fundamental population processes, the manifestation and interrelationships of which are affected by environmental variability. However, there are surprisingly few empirical studies that distinguish the effect of environmental variability from the effects of population processes. We took advantage of a unique system, in which populations of the same duck species or close ecological counterparts live in highly variable (north American prairies) and in stable (north European lakes) environments, to distinguish the relative contributions of environmental variability (measured as between-year fluctuations in wetland numbers) and intraspecific interactions (density dependence) in driving population dynamics. We tested whether populations living in stable environments (in northern Europe) were more strongly governed by density dependence than populations living in variable environments (in North America). We also addressed whether relative population dynamical responses to environmental variability versus density corresponded to differences in life history strategies between dabbling (relatively “fast species” and governed by environmental variability) and diving (relatively “slow species” and governed by density) ducks. As expected, the variance component of population fluctuations caused by changes in breeding environments was greater in North America than in Europe. Contrary to expectations, however, populations in more stable environments were not less variable nor clearly more strongly density dependent than populations in highly variable environments. Also, contrary to expectations, populations of diving ducks were neither more stable nor stronger density dependent than populations of dabbling ducks, and the effect of environmental variability on population dynamics was greater in diving than in dabbling ducks. In general, irrespective of continent and species life history

  12. System Dynamics based Dengue modeling environment to simulate evolution of Dengue infection under different climate scenarios (United States)

    Anwar, R.; Khan, R.; Usmani, M.; Colwell, R. R.; Jutla, A.


    Vector borne infectious diseases such as Dengue, Zika and Chikungunya remain a public health threat. An estimate of the World Health Organization (WHO) suggests that about 2.5 billion people, representing ca. 40% of human population,are at increased risk of dengue; with more than 100 million infection cases every year. Vector-borne infections cannot be eradicated since disease causing pathogens survive in the environment. Over the last few decades dengue infection has been reported in more than 100 countries and is expanding geographically. Female Ae. Aegypti mosquito, the daytime active and a major vector for dengue virus, is associated with urban population density and regional climatic processes. However, mathematical quantification of relationships on abundance of vectors and climatic processes remain a challenge, particularly in regions where such data are not routinely collected. Here, using system dynamics based feedback mechanism, an algorithm integrating knowledge from entomological, meteorological and epidemiological processes is developed that has potential to provide ensemble simulations on risk of occurrence of dengue infection in human population. Using dataset from satellite remote sensing, the algorithm was calibrated and validated using actual dengue case data of Iquitos, Peru. We will show results on model capabilities in capturing initiation and peak in the observed time series. In addition, results from several simulation scenarios under different climatic conditions will be discussed.

  13. Increasing weather-related impacts on European population under climate and demographic change (United States)

    Forzieri, Giovanni; Cescatti, Alessandro; Batista e Silva, Filipe; Kovats, Sari R.; Feyen, Luc


    Over the last three decades the overwhelming majority of disasters have been caused by weather-related events. The observed rise in weather-related disaster losses has been largely attributed to increased exposure and to a lesser degree to global warming. Recent studies suggest an intensification in the climatology of multiple weather extremes in Europe over the coming decades in view of climate change, while urbanization continues. In view of these pressures, understanding and quantifying the potential impacts of extreme weather events on future societies is imperative in order to identify where and to what extent their livelihoods will be at risk in the future, and develop timely and effective adaptation and disaster risk reduction strategies. Here we show a comprehensive assessment of single- and multi-hazard impacts on the European population until the year 2100. For this purpose, we developed a novel methodology that quantifies the human impacts as a multiplicative function of hazard, exposure and population vulnerability. We focus on seven of the most impacting weather-related hazards - including heat and cold waves, wildfires, droughts, river and coastal floods and windstorms - and evaluated their spatial and temporal variations in intensity and frequency under a business-as-usual climate scenario. Long-term demographic dynamics were modelled to assess exposure developments under a corresponding middle-of-the-road scenario. Vulnerability of humans to weather extremes was appraised based on more than 2300 records of weather-related disasters. The integration of these elements provides a range of plausible estimates of extreme weather-related risks for future European generations. Expected impacts on population are quantified in terms of fatalities and number of people exposed. We find a staggering rise in fatalities from extreme weather events, with the projected death toll by the end of the century amounting to more than 50 times the present number of people

  14. Consequences of the Allee effect and intraspecific competition on population persistence under adverse environmental conditions. (United States)

    Petrovskii, Sergei; Blackshaw, Rod; Li, Bai-Lian


    The impact of intraspecific interactions on ecological stability and population persistence in terms of steady state(s) existence is considered theoretically based on a general competition model. We compare persistence of a structured population consisting of a few interacting (competitive) subpopulations, or groups, to persistence of the corresponding unstructured population. For a general case, we show that if the intra-group competition is stronger than the inter-group competition, then the structured population is less prone to extinction, i.e. it can persist in a parameter range where the unstructured population goes extinct. For a more specific case of a population with hierarchical competition, we show that relative viability of structured and unstructured populations depend on the type of density dependence in the population growth. Namely, while in the case of logistic growth, structured and unstructured populations exhibit equivalent persistence; in the case of Allee dynamics, the persistence of a hierarchically structured population is shown to be higher. We then apply these results to the case of behaviourally structured populations and demonstrate that an extreme form of individual aggression can be beneficial at the population level and enhance population persistence.

  15. Chaotic population dynamics and biology of the top-predator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rai, Vikas; Upadhyay, Ranjit Kumar


    We study how the dynamics of a food chain depends on the biology of the top-predator. We consider two model food chains with specialist and generalist top-predators. Both types of food chains display same type of chaotic behavior, short-term recurrent chaos; but the generating mechanisms are drastically different. Food chains with specialist top-predators are dictated by exogenous stochastic factors. On the contrary, the dynamics of those with the generalist top-predator is governed by deterministic changes in system parameters. The study also suggests that robust chaos would be a rarity

  16. Population-level consequences of herbivory, changing climate, and source-sink dynamics on a long-lived invasive shrub. (United States)

    van Klinken, R D; Pichancourt, J B


    Long-lived plant species are highly valued environmentally, economically, and socially, but can also cause substantial harm as invaders. Realistic demographic predictions can guide management decisions, and are particularly valuable for long-lived species where population response times can be long. Long-lived species are also challenging, given population dynamics can be affected by factors as diverse as herbivory, climate, and dispersal. We developed a matrix model to evaluate the effects of herbivory by a leaf-feeding biological control agent released in Australia against a long-lived invasive shrub (mesquite, Leguminoseae: Prosopis spp.). The stage-structured, density-dependent model used an annual time step and 10 climatically diverse years of field data. Mesquite population demography is sensitive to source-sink dynamics as most seeds are consumed and redistributed spatially by livestock. In addition, individual mesquite plants, because they are long lived, experience natural climate variation that cycles over decadal scales, as well as anthropogenic climate change. The model therefore explicitly considered the effects of both net dispersal and climate variation. Herbivory strongly regulated mesquite populations through reduced growth and fertility, but additional mortality of older plants will be required to reach management goals within a reasonable time frame. Growth and survival of seeds and seedlings were correlated with daily soil moisture. As a result, population dynamics were sensitive to rainfall scenario, but population response times were typically slow (20-800 years to reach equilibrium or extinction) due to adult longevity. Equilibrium population densities were expected to remain 5% higher, and be more dynamic, if historical multi-decadal climate patterns persist, the effect being dampened by herbivory suppressing seed production irrespective of preceding rainfall. Dense infestations were unlikely to form under a drier climate, and required net


    Biogeochemical alterations of the nitrogen cycle from anthropogenic activities could have significant effects on ecological processes at the population, community and ecosystem levels. Nitrogen additions in grasslands have produced qualitative and quantitative changes in vegetat...

  18. Population dynamics of the diamondback moth Plutella xylostella L ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Lepidoptera: Yponomeutidae) was investigated at three farms on the Western side of the Sydney Basin, Australia, from November 2003 to October 2004. Adult populations were monitored fortnightly by counting the number that was trapped on ...

  19. Population dynamics of aquatic snails in Pampulha reservoir

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. R. Freitas


    Full Text Available An attempt was made to determine more accurately the density of molluskan populations in the Pampulha reservoir, using the quadrate method, intending to detect the fluctuation of the populations density, the habitat conditions and the possible competitive interactions among Biomphalaria tenagophila, Melanoides tuberculata, Pomacea haustrum and Biomphalaria glabrata, through the analysis of populational parameters. Among the most significative facts observed in the reservoir it has to be mentioned: the almost disappearance of B. glabrata; the invasion, colonization, fixation and fast growing of M. tuberculata population until reaching about 11,000 individuals/[square metre]; the density fluctuations of B. tenagophila, P. haustrum and M. tuberculata alives and deads; differences on the habitat preference of these three molluskan species at the edge (at the limit earth-water, at 0.70m and 1.40m from the shore line; monthly mortality rates and reproduction seasons of the species.

  20. Population density of Beauveria bassiana in soil under the action of fungicides and native microbial populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flávia Barbosa Soares


    Full Text Available This study investigated whether populations of naturally-occurring soil bacteria, fungi and actinomycetes influence the effect of fungicides on the survival and growth of Beauveria bassiana. The toxicity of methyl thiophanate, pyraclostrobin, mancozeb and copper oxychloride at the recommended doses was analyzed in culture medium and in soil inoculated with fungus at various time points after addition of fungicides. All fungicides completely inhibited the growth and sporulation of B. bassiana in the culture medium. The fungicides were less toxic in soil, emphasizing the action of the microbial populations, which interfered with the toxic effects of these products to the fungus. Actinomycetes had the greatest influence on the entomopathogen, inhibiting it or degrading the fungicides to contribute to the survival and growth of B. bassiana in soil. Native populations of fungi and bacteria had a smaller influence on the population density of B. bassiana and the action of fungicides towards entomopathogen. The toxic effect of the fungicides was greater when added to the soil one hour before or after inoculation than at 48h after inoculation.

  1. Population dynamics of caribou herds in southwestern Alaska


    Valkenburg, Patrick; Sellers, Richard A.; Squibb, Ronald C.; Woolington, James D.; Aderman, Andrew R.; Dale, Bruce W.


    The five naturally occurring and one transplanted caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti) herd in southwestern Alaska composed about 20% of Alaska's caribou population in 2001. All five of the naturally occurring herds fluctuated considerably in size between the late 1800s and 2001 and for some herds the data provide an indication of long-term periodic (40-50 year) fluctuations. At the present time, the Unimak (UCH) and Southern Alaska Peninsula (SAP) are recovering from population declines, the N...

  2. The growth rates and population dynamics of bivalves in estuaries ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Studies on bivalves in the SwartkOps estuary have indicated that spatfall oa::an dlD'iDllate summer. After adult populations had been decimated by floods in 1971 spat up a Iarp proportion of the bivalve population in 1973. Growth rata! vary at difl"erent intertidallevela and in difl"erent parts of the estuary and growth ...

  3. Do we need demographic data to forecast plant population dynamics? (United States)

    Tredennick, Andrew T.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Adler, Peter B.


    Rapid environmental change has generated growing interest in forecasts of future population trajectories. Traditional population models built with detailed demographic observations from one study site can address the impacts of environmental change at particular locations, but are difficult to scale up to the landscape and regional scales relevant to management decisions. An alternative is to build models using population-level data that are much easier to collect over broad spatial scales than individual-level data. However, it is unknown whether models built using population-level data adequately capture the effects of density-dependence and environmental forcing that are necessary to generate skillful forecasts.Here, we test the consequences of aggregating individual responses when forecasting the population states (percent cover) and trajectories of four perennial grass species in a semi-arid grassland in Montana, USA. We parameterized two population models for each species, one based on individual-level data (survival, growth and recruitment) and one on population-level data (percent cover), and compared their forecasting accuracy and forecast horizons with and without the inclusion of climate covariates. For both models, we used Bayesian ridge regression to weight the influence of climate covariates for optimal prediction.In the absence of climate effects, we found no significant difference between the forecast accuracy of models based on individual-level data and models based on population-level data. Climate effects were weak, but increased forecast accuracy for two species. Increases in accuracy with climate covariates were similar between model types.In our case study, percent cover models generated forecasts as accurate as those from a demographic model. For the goal of forecasting, models based on aggregated individual-level data may offer a practical alternative to data-intensive demographic models. Long time series of percent cover data already exist

  4. Simplified Model for the Population Dynamics Involved in a Malaria Crisis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kenfack-Jiotsa, A.; Fotsa-Ngaffo, F.


    We adapt a simple model of predator-prey to the population involved in a crisis of malaria. The study is made only in the stream blood inside the human body except for the liver. Particularly we look at the dynamics of the malaria parasites 'merozoites' and their interaction with the blood components, more specifically the red blood cells (RBC) and the immune response grouped under the white blood cells (WBC). The stability analysis of the system reveals an important practical direction to investigate as regards the ratio WBC over RBC since it is a fundamental parameter that characterizes stable regions. The model numerically presents a wide range of possible features of the disease. Even with its simplified form, the model not only recovers well-known results but in addition predicts possible hidden phenomenon and an interesting clinical feature a malaria crisis. (author)

  5. Posterior Parietal Cortex Encoding of Dynamic Hand Force Underlying Hand-Object Interaction. (United States)

    Ferrari-Toniolo, Simone; Visco-Comandini, Federica; Papazachariadis, Odysseas; Caminiti, Roberto; Battaglia-Mayer, Alexandra


    Major achievements of primate evolution are skilled hand-object interaction and tool use, both in part dependent on parietal cortex expansion. We recorded spiking activity from macaque inferior parietal cortex during directional manipulation of an isometric tool, which required the application of hand forces to control a cursor's motion on a screen. In areas PFG/PF, the activity of ∼ 70% neurons was modulated by the hand force necessary to implement the desired target motion, reflecting an inverse model, rather than by the intended motion of the visual cursor (forward model). The population vector matched the direction and amplitude of the instantaneous force increments over time. When exposed to a new force condition, that obliged the monkey to change the force output to successfully bring the cursor to the final target, the activity of a consistent subpopulation of neurons changed in an orderly fashion and, at the end of a "Wash-out" session, retained memory of the new learned association, at the service of predictive control of force. Our findings suggest that areas PFG/PF represent a crucial node of the distributed control of hand force, by encoding instantaneous force variations and serving as a memory reservoir of hand dynamics required for object manipulation and tool use. This is coherent with previous studies in humans showing the following: (1) impaired adaptation to a new force field under TMS parietal perturbation; (2) defective control of direction of hand force after parietal lesion; and (3) fMRI activation of parietal cortex during object manipulation requiring control of fine hand forces. Skilled object manipulation and tool use are major achievements of primate evolution, both largely dependent on posterior parietal cortex (PPC) expansion. Neurophysiological and fMRI studies in macaque and humans had documented a crucial role of PPC in encoding the hand kinematics underlying these functions, leaving to premotor and motor areas the role of

  6. Competition under capacitated dynamic lot-sizing with capacity acquisition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Hongyan; Meissner, Joern


    Lot-sizing and capacity planning are important supply chain decisions, and competition and cooperation affect the performance of these decisions. In this paper, we look into the dynamic lot-sizing and resource competition problem of an industry consisting of multiple firms. A capacity competition...... model combining the complexity of time-varying demand with cost functions and economies of scale arising from dynamic lot-sizing costs is developed. Each firm can replenish inventory at the beginning of each period in a finite planning horizon. Fixed as well as variable production costs incur for each...... production setup, along with inventory carrying costs. The individual production lots of each firm are limited by a constant capacity restriction, which is purchased up front for the planning horizon. The capacity can be purchased from a spot market, and the capacity acquisition cost fluctuates...

  7. Dynamic capability in an under-researched cultural environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fatemeh Rezaee


    Full Text Available During the past few years, dynamic capability (DC has been considered as an important issue in banking industry. This paper presents a survey on dynamic capability and its role on reaching sustainable competitive advantage (SCA within Mellat bank of Iran (MBI. A valid research instrument is utilized to conduct a survey among 150 managers from MBI. The study utilizes structural equation modelling to examine different hypotheses based on an integrated model of DC and SCA. According to literature studies, expert opinions and exploratory factor analysis, DC is classified into sensing, learning, reconfiguration, and coordination. Furthermore, SCA of the banking industry is classified into three dimensions: market, customer, and financial performance. The results indicate that DC had the greatest effect on the market centered, while it had the least influence on the customer centered.

  8. Stability and dynamics of electron plasma vortex under external strain (United States)

    Hurst, N. C.; Danielson, J. R.; Dubin, D. H. E.; Surko, C. M.


    The behavior of two-dimensional vortex structures is of key interest in a number of important physical systems, including geophysical fluids and strongly magnetized plasmas. Studied here is the case of an initially axisymmetric vortex subjected to a simple strain flow. Experiments are performed using pure electron plasmas confined in a Penning-Malmberg trap to model the dynamics of an ideal two-dimensional fluid. Vortex-In-Cell simulations are also conducted to complement the laboratory results. The dynamical behavior and stability threshold of the strained vortex are measured, showing good agreement with Kida's elliptical patch model for relatively flat vorticity profiles. However, non-flat profiles feature a reduced stability threshold, apparently due to filamentation at the vortex periphery.

  9. Dynamic asset allocation for bank under stochastic interest rates.


    Chakroun, Fatma; Abid, Fathi


    This paper considers the optimal asset allocation strategy for bank with stochastic interest rates when there are three types of asset: Bank account, loans and securities. The asset allocation problem is to maximize the expected utility from terminal wealth of a bank's shareholders over a finite time horizon. As a consequence, we apply a dynamic programming principle to solve the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation explicitly in the case of the CRRA utility function. A case study is given ...

  10. Dynamics underlying Box-office: Movie Competition on Recommender Systems


    Yeung, C. H.; Cimini, G.; Jin, C. -H.


    We introduce a simple model to study movie competition in the recommender systems. Movies of heterogeneous quality compete against each other through viewers' reviews and generate interesting dynamics of box-office. By assuming mean-field interactions between the competing movies, we show that run-away effect of popularity spreading is triggered by defeating the average review score, leading to hits in box-office. The average review score thus characterizes the critical movie quality necessar...

  11. Forward dynamics simulation of human body under tilting perturbations (United States)

    Naderi, D.; Pasha Zanoosi, A. A.; Sadeghi-Mehr, M.


    Human body uses different strategies to maintain its stability and these strategies vary from fixed-foot strategies to strategies which foot is moved in order to increase the support base. Tilting movement of foot is one type of the perturbations usually is exposed to human body. In the presence of such perturbations human body must employ appropriate reactions to prevent threats like falling. But it is not clear that how human body maintains its stability by central nervous system (CNS). At present study it is tried that by presenting a musculoskeletal model of human lower extremity with four links, three degrees of freedom (DOF) and eight skeletal muscles, the level of muscle activations causes the maintenance of stability, be investigated. Using forward dynamics solution, leads to a more general problem, rather than inverse dynamics. Hence, forward dynamics solution by forward optimization has been used for solving this highly nonlinear problem. To this end, first the system's equations of motion has been derived using lagrangian dynamics. Eight Hill-type muscles as actuators of the system were modeled. Because determination of muscle forces considering their number is an undetermined problem, optimization of an appropriate goal function should be practiced. For optimization problem, the characteristics of genetic algorithms as a method based on direct search, and the direct collocation method, has been profited. Also by considering requirements of problem, some constraints such as conservation of model stability are entered into optimization procedure. Finally to investigate validation of model, the results from optimization and experimental data are compared and good agreements are obtained.

  12. Dynamic Decision Making under Uncertainty and Partial Information (United States)


    ABSTRACT This project is concerned with the study of basic questions aimed at meeting challenges in information superiority, logistics , and planning for the...arising in planning, logistics , and risk management. The proposed research resulted in (i) new mathematical tools and theories for dynamic decision making...technical, interim, memorandum, master’s thesis, progress, quarterly, research, special, group study, etc. 3. DATES COVERED. Indicate the time during which

  13. Dynamic response of the target container under pulsed heating

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liping Ni [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)


    The structural mechanics of a liquid target container for pulsed spallation sources have been simulated using both a commercial code and a PSI-developed program. Results from the transient thermal-structural analysis showed that, due to inertia effects, the dynamic stress in the target container is contributed mainly from direct heating in the initial time stage, and later from the pressure wave in the target liquid once it reaches the wall. (author) figs., tab., refs.

  14. Causes and consequences of complex population dynamics in an annual plant, Cardamine pensylvanica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crone, E.E.


    The relative importance of density-dependent and density-independent factors in determining the population dynamics of plants has been widely debated with little resolution. In this thesis, the author explores the effects of density-dependent population regulation on population dynamics in Cardamine pensylvanica, an annual plant. In the first chapter, she shows that experimental populations of C. pensylvanica cycled from high to low density in controlled constant-environment conditions. These cycles could not be explained by external environmental changes or simple models of direct density dependence (N{sub t+1} = f[N{sub t}]), but they could be explained by delayed density dependence (N{sub t+1} = f[N{sub t}, N{sub t+1}]). In the second chapter, she shows that the difference in the stability properties of population growth models with and without delayed density dependence is due to the presence of Hopf as well as slip bifurcations from stable to chaotic population dynamics. She also measures delayed density dependence due to effects of parental density on offspring quality in C. pensylvanica and shows that this is large enough to be the cause of the population dynamics observed in C. pensylvanica. In the third chapter, the author extends her analyses of density-dependent population growth models to include interactions between competing species. In the final chapter, she compares the effects of fixed spatial environmental variation and variation in population size on the evolutionary response of C. pensylvanica populations.

  15. Dynamic simulation of variable capacity refrigeration systems under abnormal conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liang Nan; Shao Shuangquan; Tian Changqing; Yan Yuying


    There are often abnormal working conditions at evaporator outlet of a refrigeration system, such as two-phase state in transient process, and it is essential to investigate such transient behaviours for system design and control strategy. In this paper, a dynamic lumped parameter model is developed to simulate the transient behaviours of refrigeration system with variable capacity in both normal and abnormal working conditions. The appropriate discriminant method is adopted to switch the normal and abnormal conditions smoothly and to eliminate the simulated data oscillation. In order to verify the dynamic model, we built a test system with variable frequency compressor, water-cooling condenser, evaporator and electronic expansion valve. Calculated values from the mathematical model show reasonable agreement with the experimental data. The simulation results show that the transient behaviours of the variable capacity refrigeration system in the abnormal working conditions can be calculated reliably with the dynamic model when the compressor rotary speed or the opening of electronic expansion valve changes abruptly.

  16. Modeling detour behavior of pedestrian dynamics under different conditions (United States)

    Qu, Yunchao; Xiao, Yao; Wu, Jianjun; Tang, Tao; Gao, Ziyou


    Pedestrian simulation approach has been widely used to reveal the human behavior and evaluate the performance of crowd evacuation. In the existing pedestrian simulation models, the social force model is capable of predicting many collective phenomena. Detour behavior occurs in many cases, and the important behavior is a dominate factor of the crowd evacuation efficiency. However, limited attention has been attracted for analyzing and modeling the characteristics of detour behavior. In this paper, a modified social force model integrated by Voronoi diagram is proposed to calculate the detour direction and preferred velocity. Besides, with the consideration of locations and velocities of neighbor pedestrians, a Logit-based choice model is built to describe the detour direction choice. The proposed model is applied to analyze pedestrian dynamics in a corridor scenario with either unidirectional or bidirectional flow, and a building scenario in real-world. Simulation results show that the modified social force model including detour behavior could reduce the frequency of collision and deadlock, increase the average speed of the crowd, and predict more practical crowd dynamics with detour behavior. This model can also be potentially applied to understand the pedestrian dynamics and design emergent management strategies for crowd evacuations.

  17. Dynamic reorganization of open chromatin underlies diverse transcriptomes during spermatogenesis (United States)

    Maezawa, So; Yukawa, Masashi; Alavattam, Kris G; Barski, Artem


    Abstract During spermatogenesis, germ cells undergo massive cellular reconstruction and dynamic chromatin remodeling to facilitate highly diverse transcriptomes, which are required for the production of functional sperm. However, it remains unknown how germline chromatin is organized to promote the dynamic, complex transcriptomes of spermatogenesis. Here, using ATAC-seq, we establish the varied landscape of open chromatin during spermatogenesis. We identify the reorganization of accessible chromatin in intergenic and intronic regions during the mitosis-to-meiosis transition. During the transition, mitotic-type open chromatin is closed while the de novo formation of meiotic-type open chromatin takes place. Contrastingly, differentiation processes such as spermatogonial differentiation and the meiosis-to-postmeiosis transition involve chromatin closure without the de novo formation of accessible chromatin. In spermiogenesis, the germline-specific Polycomb protein SCML2 promotes the closure of open chromatin at autosomes for gene suppression. Paradoxically, we identify the massive de novo formation of accessible chromatin when the sex chromosomes undergo meiotic sex chromosome inactivation, and this is also mediated by SCML2. These results reveal meiotic sex chromosome inactivation as an active process for chromatin organization. Together, our results unravel the genome-wide, dynamic reorganization of open chromatin and reveal mechanisms that underlie diverse transcriptomes during spermatogenesis. PMID:29126117

  18. Dynamics of Possible Late Heavy Bombardment Impactor Populations (United States)

    Dones, Luke


    The existence of the later lunar basins implies the existence of a massive dynamical reservoir that can store small bodies for some 6000 Myr after the Moon formed. We will discuss four recent models for such reservoirs. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

  19. Estimating spatio-temporal dynamics of size-structured populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Kasper; Thygesen, Uffe Høgsbro; Andersen, Ken Haste


    through time, 2) predicting the risk of by-catch of undersize individuals. The method demonstrates that it is possible to combine stock assessment and spatio-temporal dynamics, however at a high computational cost. The model can be extended by increasing its ecological fidelity, although computational...

  20. Ideal free distributions when resources undergo population dynamics

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Křivan, Vlastimil


    Roč. 64, - (2003), s. 25-38 ISSN 0040-5809 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA201/03/0091; GA MŠk LA 101 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z5007907 Keywords : Predator -prey dynamics * ideal free distribution * optimal foraging Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 2.261, year: 2003

  1. The demographic drivers of local population dynamics in two rare migratory birds. (United States)

    Schaub, Michael; Reichlin, Thomas S; Abadi, Fitsum; Kéry, Marc; Jenni, Lukas; Arlettaz, Raphaël


    The exchange of individuals among populations can have strong effects on the dynamics and persistence of a given population. Yet, estimation of immigration rates remains one of the greatest challenges for animal demographers. Little empirical knowledge exists about the effects of immigration on population dynamics. New integrated population models fitted using Bayesian methods enable simultaneous estimation of fecundity, survival and immigration, as well as the growth rate of a population of interest. We applied this novel analytical framework to the demography of two populations of long-distance migratory birds, hoopoe Upupa epops and wryneck Jynx torquilla, in a study area in south-western Switzerland. During 2002-2010, the hoopoe population increased annually by 11%, while the wryneck population remained fairly stable. Apparent juvenile and adult survival probability was nearly identical in both species, but fecundity and immigration were slightly higher in the hoopoe. Hoopoe population growth rate was strongly correlated with juvenile survival, fecundity and immigration, while that of wrynecks strongly correlated only with immigration. This indicates that demographic components impacting the arrival of new individuals into the populations were more important for their dynamics than demographic components affecting the loss of individuals. The finding that immigration plays a crucial role in the population growth rates of these two rare species emphasizes the need for a broad rather than local perspective for population studies, and the development of wide-scale conservation actions.

  2. A model for population dynamics of the mimetic butterfly Papilio polytes in the Sakishima Islands, Japan. (United States)

    Sekimura, Toshio; Fujihashi, Yuta; Takeuchi, Yasuhiro


    We present a mathematical model for population dynamics of the mimetic swallowtail butterfly Papilio polytes in the Sakishima Islands, Japan. The model includes four major variables, that is, population densities of three kinds of butterflies (two female forms f. cyrus, f. polytes and the unpalatable butterfly Pachliopta aristolochiae) and their predator. It is well-known that the non-mimic f. cyrus resembles and attracts the male most, and the mimic f. polytes mimics the model butterfly P. aristolochiae. Based on experimental evidence, we assume that two forms f. cyrus and f. polytes interact under intraspecific competition for resources including the male, and the growth rate of f. cyrus is higher than that of f. polytes. We further assume that both the benefit of mimicry for the mimic f. polytes and the cost for the model are dependent on their relative frequencies, i.e. the motality of the mimic by predation decreases with increase in frequency of the model, while the motality of the model increases as the frequency of the mimic increases. Taking the density-dependent effect through carrying capacity into account, we set up a model system consisting of three ordinary differential equations (ODEs), analyze it mathematically and provide computer simulations that confirm the analytical results. Our results reproduce field records on population dynamics of P. polytes in the Miyako-jima Island. They also explain the positive dependence of the relative abundance (RA) of the mimic on the advantage index (AI) of the mimicry in the Sakishima Islands defined in Section 2. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Boom or bust? A comparative analysis of transient population dynamics in plants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stott, Iain; Franco, Miguel; Carslake, David


    a population must become before reaching its maximum possible transient amplification following a disturbance) and the extension of this and other transient indices to simultaneously describe both amplified and attenuated transient dynamics. We apply the Kreiss bound and other transient indices to a data base......Population dynamics often defy predictions based on empirical models, and explanations for noisy dynamics have ranged from deterministic chaos to environmental stochasticity. Transient (short-term) dynamics following disturbance or perturbation have recently gained empirical attention from...... succession have the highest potential for transient amplification and attenuation, whereas species with intermediate life history complexity have the lowest potential. We find ecological relationships between transients and asymptotic dynamics: faster-growing populations tend to have greater potential...

  4. Regional Population--Employment Dynamics across Different Sectors of the Economy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Graaff, T.; Florax, R.J.G.M.; van Oort, F.G.


    An important subset of the literature on agglomeration externalities hypothesizes that intrasectoral and intersectoral relations are endogenously determined in models of local and regional economic growth. Remarkably, structural adjustment models describing the spatio-temporal dynamics of population

  5. Approximation of solutions to retarded differential equations with applications to population dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Bahuguna


    Full Text Available We consider a retarded differential equation with applications to population dynamics. We establish the convergence of a finite-dimensional approximations of a unique solution, the existence and uniqueness of which are also proved in the process.

  6. Dynamics of the Thermohaline Circulation under Wind forcing


    Gao, Hongjun; Duan, Jinqiao


    The ocean thermohaline circulation, also called meridional overturning circulation, is caused by water density contrasts. This circulation has large capacity of carrying heat around the globe and it thus affects the energy budget and further affects the climate. We consider a thermohaline circulation model in the meridional plane under external wind forcing. We show that, when there is no wind forcing, the stream function and the density fluctuation (under appropriate metrics) tend to zero ex...

  7. Integrating Dynamic Pricing and Replenishment Decisions Under Supply Capacity Uncertainty


    Qi Feng


    This paper examines an integrated decision-making process regarding pricing for uncertain demand and sourcing from uncertain supply, which are often studied separately in the literature. Our analysis of the integrated system suggests that the base stock list price policy fails to achieve optimality even under deterministic demand. Instead, the optimal policy is characterized by two critical values: a reorder point and a target safety stock. Under this policy, a positive order is issued if and...

  8. Evolutionary game dynamics in populations with heterogenous structures.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wes Maciejewski


    Full Text Available Evolutionary graph theory is a well established framework for modelling the evolution of social behaviours in structured populations. An emerging consensus in this field is that graphs that exhibit heterogeneity in the number of connections between individuals are more conducive to the spread of cooperative behaviours. In this article we show that such a conclusion largely depends on the individual-level interactions that take place. In particular, averaging payoffs garnered through game interactions rather than accumulating the payoffs can altogether remove the cooperative advantage of heterogeneous graphs while such a difference does not affect the outcome on homogeneous structures. In addition, the rate at which game interactions occur can alter the evolutionary outcome. Less interactions allow heterogeneous graphs to support more cooperation than homogeneous graphs, while higher rates of interactions make homogeneous and heterogeneous graphs virtually indistinguishable in their ability to support cooperation. Most importantly, we show that common measures of evolutionary advantage used in homogeneous populations, such as a comparison of the fixation probability of a rare mutant to that of the resident type, are no longer valid in heterogeneous populations. Heterogeneity causes a bias in where mutations occur in the population which affects the mutant's fixation probability. We derive the appropriate measures for heterogeneous populations that account for this bias.

  9. Population dynamics and structure of the neotropical bark bug Phloea subquadrata (Hemiptera: Phloeidae) on Plinia cauliflora (Myrtaceae). (United States)

    Salomão, Adriana T; Vasconcellos-Neto, João


    Phloea subquadrata Spinola, 1837 (Pentatomoidea: Phloeidae) belongs to a small family of sap feeding bugs that live on tree trunks, on which they are cryptic because of their coloration and flat body. There are a few studies concerning phloeid anatomy and biology, but almost nothing is known about their ecology. In this study, population dynamics and structure of P. subquadrata on the host tree Plinia cauliflora (Myrtaceae) were investigated during 3 yr in a semideciduous forest in southeast Brazil. Nymphs and adults were active all year round, but the egg-laying season was mainly restricted to the warm, rainy season (September-March). Population density slightly increased at the end of this season because of reproduction. Population age structure changed markedly over time, with nymphs reaching the adult stage in the subsequent early-to-mid rainy season. Abiotic factors, such as rainfall and temperature, were correlated with female oviposition and population dynamics and phenology. Sex ratio was male-biased, not differing from 1:1 only during the adult recruitment period (October-January). Under dry weather conditions, phloeids were distributed closer to the base of the tree trunks when compared with rainy conditions. Our results suggest that seasonality and variations in weather conditions are important driving forces of population dynamics and phenology of P. subquadrata, as well as the microhabitat selection on host trees. © 2010 Entomological Society of America

  10. Analysis of Population Diversity of Dynamic Probabilistic Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qingjian Ni


    Full Text Available In evolutionary algorithm, population diversity is an important factor for solving performance. In this paper, combined with some population diversity analysis methods in other evolutionary algorithms, three indicators are introduced to be measures of population diversity in PSO algorithms, which are standard deviation of population fitness values, population entropy, and Manhattan norm of standard deviation in population positions. The three measures are used to analyze the population diversity in a relatively new PSO variant—Dynamic Probabilistic Particle Swarm Optimization (DPPSO. The results show that the three measure methods can fully reflect the evolution of population diversity in DPPSO algorithms from different angles, and we also discuss the impact of population diversity on the DPPSO variants. The relevant conclusions of the population diversity on DPPSO can be used to analyze, design, and improve the DPPSO algorithms, thus improving optimization performance, which could also be beneficial to understand the working mechanism of DPPSO theoretically.

  11. Dynamics of pollutant indicators during flood events in a small river under strong anthropogenic pressures (United States)

    Brion, Natacha; Carbonnel, Vincent; Elskens, Marc; Claeys, Philippe; Verbanck, Michel A.


    In densely populated regions, human activities profoundly modify natural water circulation as well as water quality, with increased hydrological risks (floods, droughts,…) and chemical hazards (untreated sewage releases, industrial pollution,…) as consequence. In order to assess water and pollutants dynamics and their mass-balance in strongly modified river system, it is important to take into account high flow events as a significant fraction of water and pollutants loads may occur during these short events which are generally underrepresented in classical mass balance studies. A good example of strongly modified river systems is the Zenne river in and around the city of Brussels (Belgium).The Zenne River (Belgium) is a rather small but dynamic rain fed river (about 10 m3/s in average) that is under the influence of strong contrasting anthropogenic pressures along its stretch. While the upstream part of its basin is rather characterized by agricultural land-use, urban and industrial areas dominate the downstream part. In particular, the city of Brussels (1.1M inhabitants) discharges in the Zenne River amounts of wastewater that are large compared to the natural riverine flow. In order to assess water and pollutants dynamics and their mass-balance in the Zenne hydrographic network, we followed water flows and concentrations of several water quality tracers during several flood episodes with an hourly frequency and at different locations along the stretch of the River. These parameters were chosen as indicators of a whole range of pollutions and anthropogenic activities. Knowledge of the high-frequency pollutants dynamics during floods is required for establishing accurate mass-balances of these elements. We thus report here the dynamics of selected parameters during entire flood events, from the baseline to the decreasing phase and at hourly frequency. Dynamics at contrasting locations, in agricultural or urban environments are compared. In particular, the

  12. Semai Senoi fertility and population dynamics: Two-census method. (United States)

    Fix, Alan G


    The fertility and parameters of population growth of the Semai Senoi of Malaysia are studied by using a two-census method based on nonstable population theory. Semai fertility is shown to be moderately high; female completed fertility is 7.42 children and the crude birth rate is greater than 0.050. Previous estimates of Semai mortality rates are also moderately high but are insufficient to balance birth; thus, the overall rate of growth is presently nearly 2%. Compared with an earlier description of the pre-1969 Semai population, fertility has increased markedly leading to a nearly threefold increase in the annual growth rate. Copyright © 1989 Wiley-Liss, Inc., A Wiley Company.

  13. Neutral delay equations from and for population dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. P. Hadeler


    Full Text Available For a certain class of neutral differential equations it is shown that these equations can serve as population models in the sense that they can be interpreted as special cases or caricatures of the standard Gurtin-MacCamy model for a population structured by age with birth and death rate depending on the total adult population. The delayed logistic equation does not belong to this class but the blowfly equation does. These neutral delay equations can be written as forward systems of an ordinary differential equation and a shift map. There are several quite distinct ways to perform the transformation to a system, either following a method of Hale or following more closely the renewal process. Similarly to the delayed logistic equation, the neutral equation (and the blowfly equation as a special case exhibit periodic solutions, although only for a restricted range of parameters.

  14. How Predation and Landscape Fragmentation Affect Vole Population Dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dalkvist, Trine; Sibly, Richard M.; Topping, Chris J.


    on behavioural and ecological data from the field vole (Microtus agrestis), we generated a number of repeated time series of vole densities whose mean population size and amplitude were measured. Subsequently, these time series were subjected to statistical autoregressive modelling, to investigate the effects......Background: Microtine species in Fennoscandia display a distinct north-south gradient from regular cycles to stable populations. The gradient has often been attributed to changes in the interactions between microtines and their predators. Although the spatial structure of the environment is known...... population cycles. Because these factors covary along the gradient it is difficult to distinguish their effects experimentally in the field. The distinction is here attempted using realistic agent-based modelling. Methodology/Principal Findings: By using a spatially explicit computer simulation model based...

  15. Population dynamics and range expansion in nine-banded armadillos.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William J Loughry

    Full Text Available Understanding why certain species can successfully colonize new areas while others do not is a central question in ecology. The nine-banded armadillo (Dasypus novemcinctus is a conspicuous example of a successful invader, having colonized much of the southern United States in the last 200 years. We used 15 years (1992-2006 of capture-mark-recapture data from a population of armadillos in northern Florida in order to estimate, and examine relationships among, various demographic parameters that may have contributed to this ongoing range expansion. Modeling across a range of values for γ, the probability of juveniles surviving in the population until first capture, we found that population growth rates varied from 0.80 for γ = 0.1, to 1.03 for γ = 1.0. Growth rates approached 1.0 only when γ ≥ 0.80, a situation that might not occur commonly because of the high rate of disappearance of juveniles. Net reproductive rate increased linearly with γ, but life expectancy (estimated at 3 years was independent of γ. We also found that growth rates were lower during a 3-year period of hardwood removal that removed preferred habitat than in the years preceding or following. Life-table response experiment (LTRE analysis indicated the decrease in growth rate during logging was primarily due to changes in survival rates of adults. Likewise, elasticity analyses of both deterministic and stochastic population growth rates revealed that survival parameters were more influential on population growth than were those related to reproduction. Collectively, our results are consistent with recent theories regarding biological invasions which posit that populations no longer at the leading edge of range expansion do not exhibit strong positive growth rates, and that high reproductive output is less critical in predicting the likelihood of successful invasion than are life-history strategies that emphasize allocation of resources to future, as opposed to current

  16. Shearographic System for Dynamic Analysis of Materials under Heat Stress

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nelson A. Correa-Rojas


    Full Text Available Shearography is a tool for monitoring and inspecting of structural flaws and imperfections in different types of industrial, automotive and aeronautics applications. It is based on digital correlation of two speckle patterns in two states of interest: with and without load. The technique has the special quality of being very robust against environmental disturbances. We present a shearographic system to analyze the dynamic behavior of the strain that suffers a material in response to changes in temperature throughout the thermal load process.

  17. The dynamics of discrete populations and series of events

    CERN Document Server

    Hopcraft, Keith Iain; Ridley, Kevin D


    IntroductionReferencesStatistical PreliminariesIntroductionProbability DistributionsMoment-Generating FunctionsDiscrete ProcessesSeries of EventsSummaryFurther ReadingMarkovian Population ProcessesIntroductionBirths and DeathsImmigration and the Poisson ProcessThe Effect of MeasurementCorrelation of CountsSummaryFurther ReadingThe Birth-Death-Immigration ProcessIntroductionRate Equations for the ProcessEquation for the Generating FunctionGeneral Time-Dependent SolutionFluctuation Characteristics of a Birth-Death-Immigration PopulationSampling and Measurement ProcessesCorrelation of CountsSumma

  18. Connection between Dynamically Derived Initial Mass Function Normalization and Stellar Population Parameters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    McDermid, Richard M.; Cappellari, Michele; Alatalo, Katherine; Bayet, Estelle; Blitz, Leo; Bois, Maxime; Bournaud, Frédéric; Bureau, Martin; Crocker, Alison F.; Davies, Roger L.; Davis, Timothy A.; de Zeeuw, P. T.; Duc, Pierre-Alain; Emsellem, Eric; Khochfar, Sadegh; Krajnović, Davor; Kuntschner, Harald; Morganti, Raffaella; Naab, Thorsten; Oosterloo, Tom; Sarzi, Marc; Scott, Nicholas; Serra, Paolo; Weijmans, Anne-Marie; Young, Lisa M.

    We report on empirical trends between the dynamically determined stellar initial mass function (IMF) and stellar population properties for a complete, volume-limited sample of 260 early-type galaxies from the ATLAS3D project. We study trends between our dynamically derived IMF normalization αdyn ≡

  19. Preliminary forecasts of Pacific bigeye tuna population trends under the A2 IPCC scenario (United States)

    Lehodey, P.; Senina, I.; Sibert, J.; Bopp, L.; Calmettes, B.; Hampton, J.; Murtugudde, R.


    An improved version of the spatial ecosystem and population dynamics model SEAPODYM was used to investigate the potential impacts of global warming on tuna populations. The model included an enhanced definition of habitat indices, movements, and accessibility of tuna predators to different vertically migrant and non-migrant micronekton functional groups. The simulations covered the Pacific basin (model domain) at a 2° × 2° geographic resolution. The structure of the model allows an evaluation from multiple data sources, and parameterization can be optimized by adjoint techniques and maximum likelihood using fishing data. A first such optimized parameterization was obtained for bigeye tuna ( Thunnus obesus) in the Pacific Ocean using historical catch data for the last 50 years and a hindcast from a coupled physical-biogeochemical model driven by the NCEP atmospheric reanalysis. The parameterization provided very plausible biological parameter values and a good fit to fishing data from the different fisheries, both within and outside the time period used for optimization. We then employed this model to forecast the future of bigeye tuna populations in the Pacific Ocean. The simulation was driven by the physical-biogeochemical fields predicted from a global marine biogeochemistry - climate simulation. This global simulation was performed with the IPSL climate model version 4 (IPSL-CM4) coupled to the oceanic biogeochemical model PISCES and forced by atmospheric CO 2, from historical records over 1860-2000, and under the SRES A2 IPCC scenario for the 21st century (i.e. atmospheric CO 2 concentration reaching 850 ppm in the year 2100). Potential future changes in distribution and abundance under the IPCC scenario are presented but without taking into account any fishing effort. The simulation showed an improvement in bigeye tuna spawning habitat both in subtropical latitudes and in the eastern tropical Pacific (ETP) where the surface temperature becomes optimal for

  20. Rapid evolution leads to differential population dynamics and top-down control in resurrectedDaphniapopulations. (United States)

    Goitom, Eyerusalem; Kilsdonk, Laurens J; Brans, Kristien; Jansen, Mieke; Lemmens, Pieter; De Meester, Luc


    There is growing evidence of rapid genetic adaptation of natural populations to environmental change, opening the perspective that evolutionary trait change may subsequently impact ecological processes such as population dynamics, community composition, and ecosystem functioning. To study such eco-evolutionary feedbacks in natural populations, however, requires samples across time. Here, we capitalize on a resurrection ecology study that documented rapid and adaptive evolution in a natural population of the water flea Daphnia magna in response to strong changes in predation pressure by fish, and carry out a follow-up mesocosm experiment to test whether the observed genetic changes influence population dynamics and top-down control of phytoplankton. We inoculated populations of the water flea D. magna derived from three time periods of the same natural population known to have genetically adapted to changes in predation pressure in replicate mesocosms and monitored both Daphnia population densities and phytoplankton biomass in the presence and absence of fish. Our results revealed differences in population dynamics and top-down control of algae between mesocosms harboring populations from the time period before, during, and after a peak in fish predation pressure caused by human fish stocking. The differences, however, deviated from our a priori expectations. An S-map approach on time series revealed that the interactions between adults and juveniles strongly impacted the dynamics of populations and their top-down control on algae in the mesocosms, and that the strength of these interactions was modulated by rapid evolution as it occurred in nature. Our study provides an example of an evolutionary response that fundamentally alters the processes structuring population dynamics and impacts ecosystem features.

  1. Comparative bionomics of four populations of Meccus longipennis (Hemiptera: Reduviidae: Triatominae) under laboratory conditions. (United States)

    Martínez-Ibarra, José Alejandro; Nogueda-Torres, Benjamín; Licón-Trillo, Ángel; Villagrán-Herrera, María Elena; de Diego-Cabrera, José Antonio; Montañez-Valdez, Oziel Dante; Rocha-Chávez, Gonzalo


    The values of biological parameters related to the life cycles of four populations of Meccus longipennis (Reduviidae: Triatominae) were evaluated. Cohorts of each of the four studied populations from different geographical areas of Mexico were maintained under similar laboratory conditions and then compared. The population from El Saucito de Araujo was different from the other three studied populations, which could help explain the secondary importance of M. longipennis in the state of Chihuahua. This paper also supports the proposition that biological traits are important criteria for determining relationships between populations.

  2. The role of spatial dynamics in the stability, resilience, and productivity of an estuarine fish population. (United States)

    Kerr, L A; Cadrin, S X; Secor, D H


    Understanding mechanisms that support long-term persistence of populations and sustainability of productive fisheries is a priority in fisheries management. Complex spatial structure within populations is increasingly viewed as a result of a plastic behavioral response that can have consequences for the dynamics of a population. We incorporated spatial structure and environmental forcing into a population model to examine the consequences for population stability (coefficient of variation of spawning-stock biomass), resilience (time to recover from disturbance), and productivity (spawning-stock biomass). White perch (Morone americana) served as a model species that exhibits simultaneous occurrence of migratory and resident groups within a population. We evaluated the role that contingents (behavioral groups within populations that exhibit divergent life histories) play in mitigating population responses to unfavorable environmental conditions. We used age-structured models that incorporated contingent-specific vital rates to simulate population dynamics of white perch in a sub-estuary of Chesapeake Bay, USA. The dynamics of the population were most sensitive to the proportion of individuals within each contingent and to a lesser degree to the level of correlation in recruitment between contingents in their responses to the environment. Increased representation of the dispersive contingent within populations resulted in increased productivity and resilience, but decreased stability. Empirical evidence from the Patuxent River white perch population was consistent with these findings. A high negative correlation in resident and dispersive contingent recruitment dynamics resulted in increased productivity and stability, with little effect on resilience. With high positive correlation between contingent recruitments, the model showed similar responses in population productivity and resilience, but decreased stability. Because contingent structure involves differing

  3. The Response of Simple Polymer Structures Under Dynamic Loading (United States)

    Proud, William; Ellison, Kay; Yapp, Su; Cole, Cloe; Galimberti, Stefano; Institute of Shock Physics Team


    The dynamic response of polymeric materials has been widely studied with the effects of degree of crystallinity, strain rate, temperature and sample size being commonly reported. This study uses a simple PMMA structure, a right cylindrical sample, with structural features such as holes. The features are added an varied in a systematic fashion. Samples were dynamically loaded using a Split Hopkinson Pressure Bar up to failure. The resulting stress-strain curves are presented showing the change in sample response. The strain to failure is shown to increase initially with the presence of holes, while failure stress is relatively unaffected. The fracture patterns seen in the failed samples change, with tensile cracks, Hertzian cones, shear effects being dominant for different holes sizes and geometries. The sample were prepared by laser cutting and checked for residual stress before experiment. The data is used to validate predictive model predictions where material, structure and damage are included.. The Institute of Shock Physics acknowledges the support of Imperial College London and the Atomic Weapons Establishment.

  4. Dynamics of Gut-Brain Communication Underlying Hunger. (United States)

    Beutler, Lisa R; Chen, Yiming; Ahn, Jamie S; Lin, Yen-Chu; Essner, Rachel A; Knight, Zachary A


    Communication between the gut and brain is critical for homeostasis, but how this communication is represented in the dynamics of feeding circuits is unknown. Here we describe nutritional regulation of key neurons that control hunger in vivo. We show that intragastric nutrient infusion rapidly and durably inhibits hunger-promoting AgRP neurons in awake, behaving mice. This inhibition is proportional to the number of calories infused but surprisingly independent of macronutrient identity or nutritional state. We show that three gastrointestinal signals-serotonin, CCK, and PYY-are necessary or sufficient for these effects. In contrast, the hormone leptin has no acute effect on dynamics of these circuits or their sensory regulation but instead induces a slow modulation that develops over hours and is required for inhibition of feeding. These findings reveal how layers of visceral signals operating on distinct timescales converge on hypothalamic feeding circuits to generate a central representation of energy balance. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Population dynamics and angler exploitation of the unique muskellunge population in Shoepack Lake, Voyageurs National Park, Minnesota (United States)

    Frohnauer, N.K.; Pierce, C.L.; Kallemeyn, L.W.


    A unique population of muskellunge Esox masquinongy inhabits Shoepack Lake in Voyageurs National Park, Minnesota. Little is known about its status, dynamics, and angler exploitation, and there is concern for the long-term viability of this population. We used intensive sampling and mark-recapture methods to quantify abundance, survival, growth, condition, age at maturity and fecundity and angler surveys to quantify angler pressure, catch rates, and exploitation. During our study, heavy rain washed out a dam constructed by beavers Castor canadensis which regulates the water level at the lake outlet, resulting in a nearly 50% reduction in surface area. We estimated a population size of 1,120 adult fish at the beginning of the study. No immediate reduction in population size was detected in response to the loss of lake area, although there was a gradual, but significant, decline in population size over the 2-year study. Adults grew less than 50 mm per year, and relative weight (W r) averaged roughly 80. Anglers were successful in catching, on average, two fish during a full day of angling, but harvest was negligible. Shoepack Lake muskellunge exhibit much slower growth rates and lower condition, but much higher densities and angler catch per unit effort (CPUE), than other muskellunge populations. The unique nature, limited distribution, and location of this population in a national park require special consideration for management. The results of this study provide the basis for assessing the long-term viability of the Shoepack Lake muskellunge population through simulations of long-term population dynamics and genetically effective population size. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2007.

  6. Population dynamics of Lemniscomys rosalia (Muridae: Rodentia) in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Numerous studies have reported increases in rodent populations following good rainfall (Nel 1978; Perrin & Swanepoel 1987; Bronner, Rau- ten bach & Meester 1988). This relationship is thought to be an indirect one where increased rainfall acts to increase cover and food supply. thus enabling rodents to reproduce (Neal.

  7. Predicting when climate-driven phenotypic change affects population dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    McLean, Nina; Lawson, C.R.; Leech, David; Van de Pol, M.

    Species' responses to climate change are variable and diverse, yet our understanding of how different responses (e.g. physiological, behavioural, demographic) relate and how they affect the parameters most relevant for conservation (e.g. population persistence) is lacking. Despite this, studies that

  8. Population dynamics and ecology of freshwater gastropods in the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    From November 1998 to October 2000, patterns of distribution and seasonal population fluctuations of snails and factors influencing them were investigated in six ... Bulinus globosus, B. tropicus, B. forskalii, Biomphalaria pfeifferi, Lymnaea natalensis, Ceratophallus natalensis, Gyraulus costulatus, Melanoides tuberculata, ...

  9. Population dynamics of Lemniscomys rosalia (Muridae: Rodentia) in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The effects of food supplementation on a population of Lemniscomys rosalia were studied experimentally in a grassland habitat in Swaziland. Food was added bi-weekly to two I-ha grids, while a single I-ha grid served as the control. Rodent traps were set monthly over a 12 month period. Food supplementation may have ...

  10. Population dynamics of Lanyu Scops Owls (Otus elegans botelensis) (United States)

    L. L. Severinghaus


    Monthly visits to Lanyu Island have been made to study Lanyu Scops Owls (Otus elegans botelensis) since 1986. This population has been surveyed by regular census and playback counts, by color banding, by monitoring the survival, reproduction and movements of individual owls, and by mapping and documenting the change in nest trees.

  11. The larval development and population dynamics of Derocheilocaris ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Seven larval stages of Derocheilocaris algoensis have been described and appear to be identical with those of D. typica from North America. This stresses the remarkable conservativeness of this subclass of Crustacea. The population biology of D. algoensis has been studied over 16 months and reproduction has been ...

  12. A stage-based model of manatee population dynamics (United States)

    Runge, M.C.; Langtimm, C.A.; Kendall, W.L.


    A stage-structured population model for the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) was developed that explicitly incorporates uncertainty in parameter estimates. The growth rates calculated with this model reflect the status of the regional populations over the most recent 10-yr period. The Northwest and Upper St. Johns River regions have growth rates (8) of 1.037 (95% interval, 1.016?1.056) and 1.062 (1.037?1.081), respectively. The Southwest region has a growth rate of 0.989 (0.946?1.024), suggesting this population has been declining at about 1.1% per year. The estimated growth rate in the Atlantic region is 1.010 (0.988?1.029), but there is some uncertainty about whether adult survival rates have been constant over the last 10 yr; using the mean survival rates from the most recent 5-yr period, the estimated growth rate in this region is 0.970 (0.938?0.998). Elasticity analysis indicates that the most effective management actions should seek to increase adult survival rates. Decomposition of the uncertainty in the growth rates indicates that uncertainty about population status can best be reduced through increased monitoring of adult survival rate.

  13. A new geographical gradient in vole population dynamics

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Tkadlec, Emil; Stenseth, N. C.


    Roč. 268, č. 1476 (2001), s. 1547-1552 ISSN 0962-8452 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA524/01/1316; GA AV ČR KSK6005114 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z6093917 Keywords : common vole * density dependence * population cycles Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 3.192, year: 2001

  14. Mathematical Modeling in Population Dynamics: The Case of Single ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)


    formulated by the logistic growth function, where ε is the intrinsic rate of increase and )0(. ≥. µ represents the effect of intraspecific competition on the reproduction rate. Fisher (1937) first proposed this equation as a model in population genetics to describe the process of spatial spread when mutant individuals with higher ...

  15. on the apllication of single specie dynamic population model 306

    African Journals Online (AJOL)


    used to compare the predicted values and observed values in order to find out whether there is significant difference between the observed and predicted values using these two models. Keywords: Birth rate, sustainable population, overcrowding, harvesting, independent t-test and ..... 95% confidence interval of the.

  16. Effective population size and evolutionary dynamics in outbred ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    tion is too fast to be due to the de novo appearance of bene- ficial mutations. Likewise, the relatively similar .... lation size (Ne), which behaves in a similar fashion to N in the Wright–Fisher model. In some cases ... variation, giving the appearance that the population is smaller than traditional theory would suggest. In our ...

  17. The significance of nonviable eggs for Daphnia population dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boersma, M.; Vijverberg, J.


    Egg mortality was studied in populations of Daphnia galeata, Daphnia cucullata, and the hybrid between these species. In Tjeukemeer, a shallow eutrophic lake in the Netherlands, egg mortality in daphnids manifested itself as an apparent increase in the frequency of eggs in the early developmental

  18. How predation and landscape fragmentation affect vole population dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dalkvist, Trine; Sibly, Richard; Topping, Christopher John


    to unravel in field experiments. We hope our results will help understand the reasons for cycle gradients observed in other areas. Our results clearly demonstrate the importance of landscape fragmentation for population cycling and we recommend that the degree of fragmentation be more fully considered...

  19. Dynamics of hepatitis C under optimal therapy and sampling based analysis (United States)

    Pachpute, Gaurav; Chakrabarty, Siddhartha P.


    We examine two models for hepatitis C viral (HCV) dynamics, one for monotherapy with interferon (IFN) and the other for combination therapy with IFN and ribavirin. Optimal therapy for both the models is determined using the steepest gradient method, by defining an objective functional which minimizes infected hepatocyte levels, virion population and side-effects of the drug(s). The optimal therapies for both the models show an initial period of high efficacy, followed by a gradual decline. The period of high efficacy coincides with a significant decrease in the viral load, whereas the efficacy drops after hepatocyte levels are restored. We use the Latin hypercube sampling technique to randomly generate a large number of patient scenarios and study the dynamics of each set under the optimal therapy already determined. Results show an increase in the percentage of responders (indicated by drop in viral load below detection levels) in case of combination therapy (72%) as compared to monotherapy (57%). Statistical tests performed to study correlations between sample parameters and time required for the viral load to fall below detection level, show a strong monotonic correlation with the death rate of infected hepatocytes, identifying it to be an important factor in deciding individual drug regimens.

  20. Stochastic noncooperative and cooperative evolutionary game strategies of a population of biological networks under natural selection. (United States)

    Chen, Bor-Sen; Yeh, Chin-Hsun


    We review current static and dynamic evolutionary game strategies of biological networks and discuss the lack of random genetic variations and stochastic environmental disturbances in these models. To include these factors, a population of evolving biological networks is modeled as a nonlinear stochastic biological system with Poisson-driven genetic variations and random environmental fluctuations (stimuli). To gain insight into the evolutionary game theory of stochastic biological networks under natural selection, the phenotypic robustness and network evolvability of noncooperative and cooperative evolutionary game strategies are discussed from a stochastic Nash game perspective. The noncooperative strategy can be transformed into an equivalent multi-objective optimization problem and is shown to display significantly improved network robustness to tolerate genetic variations and buffer environmental disturbances, maintaining phenotypic traits for longer than the cooperative strategy. However, the noncooperative case requires greater effort and more compromises between partly conflicting players. Global linearization is used to simplify the problem of solving nonlinear stochastic evolutionary games. Finally, a simple stochastic evolutionary model of a metabolic pathway is simulated to illustrate the procedure of solving for two evolutionary game strategies and to confirm and compare their respective characteristics in the evolutionary process. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.