Assumptions behind size-based ecosystem models are realistic

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Ken Haste; Blanchard, Julia L.; Fulton, Elizabeth A.

2016-01-01

A recent publication about balanced harvesting (Froese et al., ICES Journal of Marine Science; doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsv122) contains several erroneous statements about size-spectrum models. We refute the statements by showing that the assumptions pertaining to size-spectrum models discussed by Fro...... that there is indeed a constructive role for a wide suite of ecosystem models to evaluate fishing strategies in an ecosystem context...

Application of random survival forests in understanding the determinants of under-five child mortality in Uganda in the presence of covariates that satisfy the proportional and non-proportional hazards assumption.

Science.gov (United States)

Nasejje, Justine B; Mwambi, Henry

2017-09-07

Uganda just like any other Sub-Saharan African country, has a high under-five child mortality rate. To inform policy on intervention strategies, sound statistical methods are required to critically identify factors strongly associated with under-five child mortality rates. The Cox proportional hazards model has been a common choice in analysing data to understand factors strongly associated with high child mortality rates taking age as the time-to-event variable. However, due to its restrictive proportional hazards (PH) assumption, some covariates of interest which do not satisfy the assumption are often excluded in the analysis to avoid mis-specifying the model. Otherwise using covariates that clearly violate the assumption would mean invalid results. Survival trees and random survival forests are increasingly becoming popular in analysing survival data particularly in the case of large survey data and could be attractive alternatives to models with the restrictive PH assumption. In this article, we adopt random survival forests which have never been used in understanding factors affecting under-five child mortality rates in Uganda using Demographic and Health Survey data. Thus the first part of the analysis is based on the use of the classical Cox PH model and the second part of the analysis is based on the use of random survival forests in the presence of covariates that do not necessarily satisfy the PH assumption. Random survival forests and the Cox proportional hazards model agree that the sex of the household head, sex of the child, number of births in the past 1 year are strongly associated to under-five child mortality in Uganda given all the three covariates satisfy the PH assumption. Random survival forests further demonstrated that covariates that were originally excluded from the earlier analysis due to violation of the PH assumption were important in explaining under-five child mortality rates. These covariates include the number of children under the

Models for waste life cycle assessment: Review of technical assumptions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gentil, Emmanuel; Damgaard, Anders; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky

2010-01-01

A number of waste life cycle assessment (LCA) models have been gradually developed since the early 1990s, in a number of countries, usually independently from each other. Large discrepancies in results have been observed among different waste LCA models, although it has also been shown that results...... from different LCA studies can be consistent. This paper is an attempt to identify, review and analyse methodologies and technical assumptions used in various parts of selected waste LCA models. Several criteria were identified, which could have significant impacts on the results......, such as the functional unit, system boundaries, waste composition and energy modelling. The modelling assumptions of waste management processes, ranging from collection, transportation, intermediate facilities, recycling, thermal treatment, biological treatment, and landfilling, are obviously critical when comparing...

Pre-equilibrium assumptions and statistical model parameters effects on reaction cross-section calculations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Avrigeanu, M.; Avrigeanu, V.

1992-02-01

A systematic study on effects of statistical model parameters and semi-classical pre-equilibrium emission models has been carried out for the (n,p) reactions on the 56 Fe and 60 Co target nuclei. The results obtained by using various assumptions within a given pre-equilibrium emission model differ among them more than the ones of different models used under similar conditions. The necessity of using realistic level density formulas is emphasized especially in connection with pre-equilibrium emission models (i.e. with the exciton state density expression), while a basic support could be found only by replacement of the Williams exciton state density formula with a realistic one. (author). 46 refs, 12 figs, 3 tabs

A framework for the organizational assumptions underlying safety culture

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Packer, Charles

2002-01-01

The safety culture of the nuclear organization can be addressed at the three levels of culture proposed by Edgar Schein. The industry literature provides a great deal of insight at the artefact and espoused value levels, although as yet it remains somewhat disorganized. There is, however, an overall lack of understanding of the assumption level of safety culture. This paper describes a possible framework for conceptualizing the assumption level, suggesting that safety culture is grounded in unconscious beliefs about the nature of the safety problem, its solution and how to organize to achieve the solution. Using this framework, the organization can begin to uncover the assumptions at play in its normal operation, decisions and events and, if necessary, engage in a process to shift them towards assumptions more supportive of a strong safety culture. (author)

Effect of grid resolution and subgrid assumptions on the model prediction of a reactive buoyant plume under convective conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chock, D.P.; Winkler, S.L.; Pu Sun

2002-01-01

We have introduced a new and elaborate approach to understand the impact of grid resolution and subgrid chemistry assumption on the grid-model prediction of species concentrations for a system with highly non-homogeneous chemistry - a reactive buoyant plume immediately downwind of the stack in a convective boundary layer. The Parcel-Grid approach plume was used to describe both the air parcel turbulent transport and chemistry. This approach allows an identical transport process for all simulations. It also allows a description of subgrid chemistry. The ambient and plume parcel transport follows the description of Luhar and Britter (Atmos. Environ, 23 (1989) 1911, 26A (1992) 1283). The chemistry follows that of the Carbon-Bond mechanism. Three different grid sizes were considered: fine, medium and coarse, together with three different subgrid chemistry assumptions: micro-scale or individual parcel, tagged-parcel (plume and ambient parcels treated separately), and untagged-parcel (plume and ambient parcels treated indiscriminately). Reducing the subgrid information is not necessarily similar to increasing the model grid size. In our example, increasing the grid size leads to a reduction in the suppression of ozone in the presence of a high-NO x stack plume, and a reduction in the effectiveness of the NO x -inhibition effect. On the other hand, reducing the subgrid information (by using the untagged-parcel assumption) leads to an increase in ozone reduction and an enhancement of the NO x -inhibition effect insofar as the ozone extremum is concerned. (author)

Limiting assumptions in molecular modeling: electrostatics.

Science.gov (United States)

Marshall, Garland R

2013-02-01

Molecular mechanics attempts to represent intermolecular interactions in terms of classical physics. Initial efforts assumed a point charge located at the atom center and coulombic interactions. It is been recognized over multiple decades that simply representing electrostatics with a charge on each atom failed to reproduce the electrostatic potential surrounding a molecule as estimated by quantum mechanics. Molecular orbitals are not spherically symmetrical, an implicit assumption of monopole electrostatics. This perspective reviews recent evidence that requires use of multipole electrostatics and polarizability in molecular modeling.

Partitioning uncertainty in streamflow projections under nonstationary model conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Chawla, Ila; Mujumdar, P. P.

2018-02-01

Assessing the impacts of Land Use (LU) and climate change on future streamflow projections is necessary for efficient management of water resources. However, model projections are burdened with significant uncertainty arising from various sources. Most of the previous studies have considered climate models and scenarios as major sources of uncertainty, but uncertainties introduced by land use change and hydrologic model assumptions are rarely investigated. In this paper an attempt is made to segregate the contribution from (i) general circulation models (GCMs), (ii) emission scenarios, (iii) land use scenarios, (iv) stationarity assumption of the hydrologic model, and (v) internal variability of the processes, to overall uncertainty in streamflow projections using analysis of variance (ANOVA) approach. Generally, most of the impact assessment studies are carried out with unchanging hydrologic model parameters in future. It is, however, necessary to address the nonstationarity in model parameters with changing land use and climate. In this paper, a regression based methodology is presented to obtain the hydrologic model parameters with changing land use and climate scenarios in future. The Upper Ganga Basin (UGB) in India is used as a case study to demonstrate the methodology. The semi-distributed Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model is set-up over the basin, under nonstationary conditions. Results indicate that model parameters vary with time, thereby invalidating the often-used assumption of model stationarity. The streamflow in UGB under the nonstationary model condition is found to reduce in future. The flows are also found to be sensitive to changes in land use. Segregation results suggest that model stationarity assumption and GCMs along with their interactions with emission scenarios, act as dominant sources of uncertainty. This paper provides a generalized framework for hydrologists to examine stationarity assumption of models before considering them

A criterion of orthogonality on the assumption and restrictions in subgrid-scale modelling of turbulence

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fang, L. [LMP, Ecole Centrale de Pékin, Beihang University, Beijing 100191 (China); Co-Innovation Center for Advanced Aero-Engine, Beihang University, Beijing 100191 (China); Sun, X.Y. [LMP, Ecole Centrale de Pékin, Beihang University, Beijing 100191 (China); Liu, Y.W., E-mail: liuyangwei@126.com [National Key Laboratory of Science and Technology on Aero-Engine Aero-Thermodynamics, School of Energy and Power Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing 100191 (China); Co-Innovation Center for Advanced Aero-Engine, Beihang University, Beijing 100191 (China)

2016-12-09

In order to shed light on understanding the subgrid-scale (SGS) modelling methodology, we analyze and define the concepts of assumption and restriction in the modelling procedure, then show by a generalized derivation that if there are multiple stationary restrictions in a modelling, the corresponding assumption function must satisfy a criterion of orthogonality. Numerical tests using one-dimensional nonlinear advection equation are performed to validate this criterion. This study is expected to inspire future research on generally guiding the SGS modelling methodology. - Highlights: • The concepts of assumption and restriction in the SGS modelling procedure are defined. • A criterion of orthogonality on the assumption and restrictions is derived. • Numerical tests using one-dimensional nonlinear advection equation are performed to validate this criterion.

Bootstrap prediction and Bayesian prediction under misspecified models

OpenAIRE

Fushiki, Tadayoshi

2005-01-01

We consider a statistical prediction problem under misspecified models. In a sense, Bayesian prediction is an optimal prediction method when an assumed model is true. Bootstrap prediction is obtained by applying Breiman's `bagging' method to a plug-in prediction. Bootstrap prediction can be considered to be an approximation to the Bayesian prediction under the assumption that the model is true. However, in applications, there are frequently deviations from the assumed model. In this paper, bo...

Investigating assumptions of crown archetypes for modelling LiDAR returns

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Calders, K.; Lewis, P.; Disney, M.; Verbesselt, J.; Herold, M.

2013-01-01

LiDAR has the potential to derive canopy structural information such as tree height and leaf area index (LAI), via models of the LiDAR signal. Such models often make assumptions regarding crown shape to simplify parameter retrieval and crown archetypes are typically assumed to contain a turbid

On the ontological assumptions of the medical model of psychiatry: philosophical considerations and pragmatic tasks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giordano James

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract A common theme in the contemporary medical model of psychiatry is that pathophysiological processes are centrally involved in the explanation, evaluation, and treatment of mental illnesses. Implied in this perspective is that clinical descriptors of these pathophysiological processes are sufficient to distinguish underlying etiologies. Psychiatric classification requires differentiation between what counts as normality (i.e.- order, and what counts as abnormality (i.e.- disorder. The distinction(s between normality and pathology entail assumptions that are often deeply presupposed, manifesting themselves in statements about what mental disorders are. In this paper, we explicate that realism, naturalism, reductionism, and essentialism are core ontological assumptions of the medical model of psychiatry. We argue that while naturalism, realism, and reductionism can be reconciled with advances in contemporary neuroscience, essentialism - as defined to date - may be conceptually problematic, and we pose an eidetic construct of bio-psychosocial order and disorder based upon complex systems' dynamics. However we also caution against the overuse of any theory, and claim that practical distinctions are important to the establishment of clinical thresholds. We opine that as we move ahead toward both a new edition of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual, and a proposed Decade of the Mind, the task at hand is to re-visit nosologic and ontologic assumptions pursuant to a re-formulation of diagnostic criteria and practice.

On the ontological assumptions of the medical model of psychiatry: philosophical considerations and pragmatic tasks

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

A common theme in the contemporary medical model of psychiatry is that pathophysiological processes are centrally involved in the explanation, evaluation, and treatment of mental illnesses. Implied in this perspective is that clinical descriptors of these pathophysiological processes are sufficient to distinguish underlying etiologies. Psychiatric classification requires differentiation between what counts as normality (i.e.- order), and what counts as abnormality (i.e.- disorder). The distinction(s) between normality and pathology entail assumptions that are often deeply presupposed, manifesting themselves in statements about what mental disorders are. In this paper, we explicate that realism, naturalism, reductionism, and essentialism are core ontological assumptions of the medical model of psychiatry. We argue that while naturalism, realism, and reductionism can be reconciled with advances in contemporary neuroscience, essentialism - as defined to date - may be conceptually problematic, and we pose an eidetic construct of bio-psychosocial order and disorder based upon complex systems' dynamics. However we also caution against the overuse of any theory, and claim that practical distinctions are important to the establishment of clinical thresholds. We opine that as we move ahead toward both a new edition of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual, and a proposed Decade of the Mind, the task at hand is to re-visit nosologic and ontologic assumptions pursuant to a re-formulation of diagnostic criteria and practice. PMID:20109176

The Impact of Modeling Assumptions in Galactic Chemical Evolution Models

Science.gov (United States)

Côté, Benoit; O'Shea, Brian W.; Ritter, Christian; Herwig, Falk; Venn, Kim A.

2017-02-01

We use the OMEGA galactic chemical evolution code to investigate how the assumptions used for the treatment of galactic inflows and outflows impact numerical predictions. The goal is to determine how our capacity to reproduce the chemical evolution trends of a galaxy is affected by the choice of implementation used to include those physical processes. In pursuit of this goal, we experiment with three different prescriptions for galactic inflows and outflows and use OMEGA within a Markov Chain Monte Carlo code to recover the set of input parameters that best reproduces the chemical evolution of nine elements in the dwarf spheroidal galaxy Sculptor. This provides a consistent framework for comparing the best-fit solutions generated by our different models. Despite their different degrees of intended physical realism, we found that all three prescriptions can reproduce in an almost identical way the stellar abundance trends observed in Sculptor. This result supports the similar conclusions originally claimed by Romano & Starkenburg for Sculptor. While the three models have the same capacity to fit the data, the best values recovered for the parameters controlling the number of SNe Ia and the strength of galactic outflows, are substantially different and in fact mutually exclusive from one model to another. For the purpose of understanding how a galaxy evolves, we conclude that only reproducing the evolution of a limited number of elements is insufficient and can lead to misleading conclusions. More elements or additional constraints such as the Galaxy’s star-formation efficiency and the gas fraction are needed in order to break the degeneracy between the different modeling assumptions. Our results show that the successes and failures of chemical evolution models are predominantly driven by the input stellar yields, rather than by the complexity of the Galaxy model itself. Simple models such as OMEGA are therefore sufficient to test and validate stellar yields. OMEGA

A Taxonomy of Latent Structure Assumptions for Probability Matrix Decomposition Models.

Science.gov (United States)

Meulders, Michel; De Boeck, Paul; Van Mechelen, Iven

2003-01-01

Proposed a taxonomy of latent structure assumptions for probability matrix decomposition (PMD) that includes the original PMD model and a three-way extension of the multiple classification latent class model. Simulation study results show the usefulness of the taxonomy. (SLD)

Assessing moderated mediation in linear models requires fewer confounding assumptions than assessing mediation.

Science.gov (United States)

Loeys, Tom; Talloen, Wouter; Goubert, Liesbet; Moerkerke, Beatrijs; Vansteelandt, Stijn

2016-11-01

It is well known from the mediation analysis literature that the identification of direct and indirect effects relies on strong no unmeasured confounding assumptions of no unmeasured confounding. Even in randomized studies the mediator may still be correlated with unobserved prognostic variables that affect the outcome, in which case the mediator's role in the causal process may not be inferred without bias. In the behavioural and social science literature very little attention has been given so far to the causal assumptions required for moderated mediation analysis. In this paper we focus on the index for moderated mediation, which measures by how much the mediated effect is larger or smaller for varying levels of the moderator. We show that in linear models this index can be estimated without bias in the presence of unmeasured common causes of the moderator, mediator and outcome under certain conditions. Importantly, one can thus use the test for moderated mediation to support evidence for mediation under less stringent confounding conditions. We illustrate our findings with data from a randomized experiment assessing the impact of being primed with social deception upon observer responses to others' pain, and from an observational study of individuals who ended a romantic relationship assessing the effect of attachment anxiety during the relationship on mental distress 2 years after the break-up. © 2016 The British Psychological Society.

Sensitivity of Earthquake Loss Estimates to Source Modeling Assumptions and Uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Reasenberg, Paul A.; Shostak, Nan; Terwilliger, Sharon

2006-01-01

Introduction: This report explores how uncertainty in an earthquake source model may affect estimates of earthquake economic loss. Specifically, it focuses on the earthquake source model for the San Francisco Bay region (SFBR) created by the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities. The loss calculations are made using HAZUS-MH, a publicly available computer program developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) for calculating future losses from earthquakes, floods and hurricanes within the United States. The database built into HAZUS-MH includes a detailed building inventory, population data, data on transportation corridors, bridges, utility lifelines, etc. Earthquake hazard in the loss calculations is based upon expected (median value) ground motion maps called ShakeMaps calculated for the scenario earthquake sources defined in WGCEP. The study considers the effect of relaxing certain assumptions in the WG02 model, and explores the effect of hypothetical reductions in epistemic uncertainty in parts of the model. For example, it addresses questions such as what would happen to the calculated loss distribution if the uncertainty in slip rate in the WG02 model were reduced (say, by obtaining additional geologic data)? What would happen if the geometry or amount of aseismic slip (creep) on the region's faults were better known? And what would be the effect on the calculated loss distribution if the time-dependent earthquake probability were better constrained, either by eliminating certain probability models or by better constraining the inherent randomness in earthquake recurrence? The study does not consider the effect of reducing uncertainty in the hazard introduced through models of attenuation and local site characteristics, although these may have a comparable or greater effect than does source-related uncertainty. Nor does it consider sources of uncertainty in the building inventory, building fragility curves, and other assumptions

Statistical power to detect violation of the proportional hazards assumption when using the Cox regression model.

Science.gov (United States)

Austin, Peter C

2018-01-01

The use of the Cox proportional hazards regression model is widespread. A key assumption of the model is that of proportional hazards. Analysts frequently test the validity of this assumption using statistical significance testing. However, the statistical power of such assessments is frequently unknown. We used Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the statistical power of two different methods for detecting violations of this assumption. When the covariate was binary, we found that a model-based method had greater power than a method based on cumulative sums of martingale residuals. Furthermore, the parametric nature of the distribution of event times had an impact on power when the covariate was binary. Statistical power to detect a strong violation of the proportional hazards assumption was low to moderate even when the number of observed events was high. In many data sets, power to detect a violation of this assumption is likely to be low to modest.

Linear regression and the normality assumption.

Science.gov (United States)

Schmidt, Amand F; Finan, Chris

2017-12-16

Researchers often perform arbitrary outcome transformations to fulfill the normality assumption of a linear regression model. This commentary explains and illustrates that in large data settings, such transformations are often unnecessary, and worse may bias model estimates. Linear regression assumptions are illustrated using simulated data and an empirical example on the relation between time since type 2 diabetes diagnosis and glycated hemoglobin levels. Simulation results were evaluated on coverage; i.e., the number of times the 95% confidence interval included the true slope coefficient. Although outcome transformations bias point estimates, violations of the normality assumption in linear regression analyses do not. The normality assumption is necessary to unbiasedly estimate standard errors, and hence confidence intervals and P-values. However, in large sample sizes (e.g., where the number of observations per variable is >10) violations of this normality assumption often do not noticeably impact results. Contrary to this, assumptions on, the parametric model, absence of extreme observations, homoscedasticity, and independency of the errors, remain influential even in large sample size settings. Given that modern healthcare research typically includes thousands of subjects focusing on the normality assumption is often unnecessary, does not guarantee valid results, and worse may bias estimates due to the practice of outcome transformations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modeling soil CO2 production and transport with dynamic source and diffusion terms: testing the steady-state assumption using DETECT v1.0

Science.gov (United States)

Ryan, Edmund M.; Ogle, Kiona; Kropp, Heather; Samuels-Crow, Kimberly E.; Carrillo, Yolima; Pendall, Elise

2018-05-01

The flux of CO2 from the soil to the atmosphere (soil respiration, Rsoil) is a major component of the global carbon (C) cycle. Methods to measure and model Rsoil, or partition it into different components, often rely on the assumption that soil CO2 concentrations and fluxes are in steady state, implying that Rsoil is equal to the rate at which CO2 is produced by soil microbial and root respiration. Recent research, however, questions the validity of this assumption. Thus, the aim of this work was two-fold: (1) to describe a non-steady state (NSS) soil CO2 transport and production model, DETECT, and (2) to use this model to evaluate the environmental conditions under which Rsoil and CO2 production are likely in NSS. The backbone of DETECT is a non-homogeneous, partial differential equation (PDE) that describes production and transport of soil CO2, which we solve numerically at fine spatial and temporal resolution (e.g., 0.01 m increments down to 1 m, every 6 h). Production of soil CO2 is simulated for every depth and time increment as the sum of root respiration and microbial decomposition of soil organic matter. Both of these factors can be driven by current and antecedent soil water content and temperature, which can also vary by time and depth. We also analytically solved the ordinary differential equation (ODE) corresponding to the steady-state (SS) solution to the PDE model. We applied the DETECT NSS and SS models to the six-month growing season period representative of a native grassland in Wyoming. Simulation experiments were conducted with both model versions to evaluate factors that could affect departure from SS, such as (1) varying soil texture; (2) shifting the timing or frequency of precipitation; and (3) with and without the environmental antecedent drivers. For a coarse-textured soil, Rsoil from the SS model closely matched that of the NSS model. However, in a fine-textured (clay) soil, growing season Rsoil was ˜ 3 % higher under the assumption of

Tale of Two Courthouses: A Critique of the Underlying Assumptions in Chronic Disease Self-Management for Aboriginal People

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Isabelle Ellis

2009-12-01

Full Text Available This article reviews the assumptions that underpin thecommonly implemented Chronic Disease Self-Managementmodels. Namely that there are a clear set of instructions forpatients to comply with, that all health care providers agreewith; and that the health care provider and the patient agreewith the chronic disease self-management plan that wasdeveloped as part of a consultation. These assumptions areevaluated for their validity in the remote health care context,particularly for Aboriginal people. These assumptions havebeen found to lack validity in this context, therefore analternative model to enhance chronic disease care isproposed.

Impacts of cloud overlap assumptions on radiative budgets and heating fields in convective regions

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, XiaoCong; Liu, YiMin; Bao, Qing

2016-01-01

Impacts of cloud overlap assumptions on radiative budgets and heating fields are explored with the aid of a cloud-resolving model (CRM), which provided cloud geometry as well as cloud micro and macro properties. Large-scale forcing data to drive the CRM are from TRMM Kwajalein Experiment and the Global Atmospheric Research Program's Atlantic Tropical Experiment field campaigns during which abundant convective systems were observed. The investigated overlap assumptions include those that were traditional and widely used in the past and the one that was recently addressed by Hogan and Illingworth (2000), in which the vertically projected cloud fraction is expressed by a linear combination of maximum and random overlap, with the weighting coefficient depending on the so-called decorrelation length Lcf. Results show that both shortwave and longwave cloud radiative forcings (SWCF/LWCF) are significantly underestimated under maximum (MO) and maximum-random (MRO) overlap assumptions, whereas remarkably overestimated under the random overlap (RO) assumption in comparison with that using CRM inherent cloud geometry. These biases can reach as high as 100 Wm- 2 for SWCF and 60 Wm- 2 for LWCF. By its very nature, the general overlap (GenO) assumption exhibits an encouraging performance on both SWCF and LWCF simulations, with the biases almost reduced by 3-fold compared with traditional overlap assumptions. The superiority of GenO assumption is also manifested in the simulation of shortwave and longwave radiative heating fields, which are either significantly overestimated or underestimated under traditional overlap assumptions. The study also pointed out the deficiency of constant assumption on Lcf in GenO assumption. Further examinations indicate that the CRM diagnostic Lcf varies among different cloud types and tends to be stratified in the vertical. The new parameterization that takes into account variation of Lcf in the vertical well reproduces such a relationship and

Respondent-Driven Sampling – Testing Assumptions: Sampling with Replacement

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Barash Vladimir D.

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Classical Respondent-Driven Sampling (RDS estimators are based on a Markov Process model in which sampling occurs with replacement. Given that respondents generally cannot be interviewed more than once, this assumption is counterfactual. We join recent work by Gile and Handcock in exploring the implications of the sampling-with-replacement assumption for bias of RDS estimators. We differ from previous studies in examining a wider range of sampling fractions and in using not only simulations but also formal proofs. One key finding is that RDS estimates are surprisingly stable even in the presence of substantial sampling fractions. Our analyses show that the sampling-with-replacement assumption is a minor contributor to bias for sampling fractions under 40%, and bias is negligible for the 20% or smaller sampling fractions typical of field applications of RDS.

A critical evaluation of the local-equilibrium assumption in modeling NAPL-pool dissolution

Science.gov (United States)

Seagren, Eric A.; Rittmann, Bruce E.; Valocchi, Albert J.

1999-07-01

An analytical modeling analysis was used to assess when local equilibrium (LE) and nonequilibrium (NE) modeling approaches may be appropriate for describing nonaqueous-phase liquid (NAPL) pool dissolution. NE mass-transfer between NAPL pools and groundwater is expected to affect the dissolution flux under conditions corresponding to values of Sh'St (the modified Sherwood number ( Lxkl/ Dz) multiplied by the Stanton number ( kl/ vx))≈400, the NE and LE solutions converge, and the LE assumption is appropriate. Based on typical groundwater conditions, many cases of interest are expected to fall in this range. The parameter with the greatest impact on Sh'St is kl. The NAPL pool mass-transfer coefficient correlation of Pfannkuch [Pfannkuch, H.-O., 1984. Determination of the contaminant source strength from mass exchange processes at the petroleum-ground-water interface in shallow aquifer systems. In: Proceedings of the NWWA/API Conference on Petroleum Hydrocarbons and Organic Chemicals in Ground Water—Prevention, Detection, and Restoration, Houston, TX. Natl. Water Well Assoc., Worthington, OH, Nov. 1984, pp. 111-129.] was evaluated using the toluene pool data from Seagren et al. [Seagren, E.A., Rittmann, B.E., Valocchi, A.J., 1998. An experimental investigation of NAPL-pool dissolution enhancement by flushing. J. Contam. Hydrol., accepted.]. Dissolution flux predictions made with kl calculated using the Pfannkuch correlation were similar to the LE model predictions, and deviated systematically from predictions made using the average overall kl=4.76 m/day estimated by Seagren et al. [Seagren, E.A., Rittmann, B.E., Valocchi, A.J., 1998. An experimental investigation of NAPL-pool dissolution enhancement by flushing. J. Contam. Hydrol., accepted.] and from the experimental data for vx>18 m/day. The Pfannkuch correlation kl was too large for vx>≈10 m/day, possibly because of the relatively low Peclet number data used by Pfannkuch [Pfannkuch, H.-O., 1984. Determination

Sampling Assumptions Affect Use of Indirect Negative Evidence in Language Learning.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anne Hsu

Full Text Available A classic debate in cognitive science revolves around understanding how children learn complex linguistic patterns, such as restrictions on verb alternations and contractions, without negative evidence. Recently, probabilistic models of language learning have been applied to this problem, framing it as a statistical inference from a random sample of sentences. These probabilistic models predict that learners should be sensitive to the way in which sentences are sampled. There are two main types of sampling assumptions that can operate in language learning: strong and weak sampling. Strong sampling, as assumed by probabilistic models, assumes the learning input is drawn from a distribution of grammatical samples from the underlying language and aims to learn this distribution. Thus, under strong sampling, the absence of a sentence construction from the input provides evidence that it has low or zero probability of grammaticality. Weak sampling does not make assumptions about the distribution from which the input is drawn, and thus the absence of a construction from the input as not used as evidence of its ungrammaticality. We demonstrate in a series of artificial language learning experiments that adults can produce behavior consistent with both sets of sampling assumptions, depending on how the learning problem is presented. These results suggest that people use information about the way in which linguistic input is sampled to guide their learning.

Sampling Assumptions Affect Use of Indirect Negative Evidence in Language Learning

Science.gov (United States)

2016-01-01

A classic debate in cognitive science revolves around understanding how children learn complex linguistic patterns, such as restrictions on verb alternations and contractions, without negative evidence. Recently, probabilistic models of language learning have been applied to this problem, framing it as a statistical inference from a random sample of sentences. These probabilistic models predict that learners should be sensitive to the way in which sentences are sampled. There are two main types of sampling assumptions that can operate in language learning: strong and weak sampling. Strong sampling, as assumed by probabilistic models, assumes the learning input is drawn from a distribution of grammatical samples from the underlying language and aims to learn this distribution. Thus, under strong sampling, the absence of a sentence construction from the input provides evidence that it has low or zero probability of grammaticality. Weak sampling does not make assumptions about the distribution from which the input is drawn, and thus the absence of a construction from the input as not used as evidence of its ungrammaticality. We demonstrate in a series of artificial language learning experiments that adults can produce behavior consistent with both sets of sampling assumptions, depending on how the learning problem is presented. These results suggest that people use information about the way in which linguistic input is sampled to guide their learning. PMID:27310576

The relevance of ''theory rich'' bridge assumptions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lindenberg, S

1996-01-01

Actor models are increasingly being used as a form of theory building in sociology because they can better represent the caul mechanisms that connect macro variables. However, actor models need additional assumptions, especially so-called bridge assumptions, for filling in the relatively empty

Benchmarking biological nutrient removal in wastewater treatment plants: influence of mathematical model assumptions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Flores-Alsina, Xavier; Gernaey, Krist V.; Jeppsson, Ulf

2012-01-01

This paper examines the effect of different model assumptions when describing biological nutrient removal (BNR) by the activated sludge models (ASM) 1, 2d & 3. The performance of a nitrogen removal (WWTP1) and a combined nitrogen and phosphorus removal (WWTP2) benchmark wastewater treatment plant...

Super learning to hedge against incorrect inference from arbitrary parametric assumptions in marginal structural modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Neugebauer, Romain; Fireman, Bruce; Roy, Jason A; Raebel, Marsha A; Nichols, Gregory A; O'Connor, Patrick J

2013-08-01

Clinical trials are unlikely to ever be launched for many comparative effectiveness research (CER) questions. Inferences from hypothetical randomized trials may however be emulated with marginal structural modeling (MSM) using observational data, but success in adjusting for time-dependent confounding and selection bias typically relies on parametric modeling assumptions. If these assumptions are violated, inferences from MSM may be inaccurate. In this article, we motivate the application of a data-adaptive estimation approach called super learning (SL) to avoid reliance on arbitrary parametric assumptions in CER. Using the electronic health records data from adults with new-onset type 2 diabetes, we implemented MSM with inverse probability weighting (IPW) estimation to evaluate the effect of three oral antidiabetic therapies on the worsening of glomerular filtration rate. Inferences from IPW estimation were noticeably sensitive to the parametric assumptions about the associations between both the exposure and censoring processes and the main suspected source of confounding, that is, time-dependent measurements of hemoglobin A1c. SL was successfully implemented to harness flexible confounding and selection bias adjustment from existing machine learning algorithms. Erroneous IPW inference about clinical effectiveness because of arbitrary and incorrect modeling decisions may be avoided with SL. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Allele Age Under Non-Classical Assumptions is Clarified by an Exact Computational Markov Chain Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

De Sanctis, Bianca; Krukov, Ivan; de Koning, A P Jason

2017-09-19

Determination of the age of an allele based on its population frequency is a well-studied problem in population genetics, for which a variety of approximations have been proposed. We present a new result that, surprisingly, allows the expectation and variance of allele age to be computed exactly (within machine precision) for any finite absorbing Markov chain model in a matter of seconds. This approach makes none of the classical assumptions (e.g., weak selection, reversibility, infinite sites), exploits modern sparse linear algebra techniques, integrates over all sample paths, and is rapidly computable for Wright-Fisher populations up to N e  = 100,000. With this approach, we study the joint effect of recurrent mutation, dominance, and selection, and demonstrate new examples of "selective strolls" where the classical symmetry of allele age with respect to selection is violated by weakly selected alleles that are older than neutral alleles at the same frequency. We also show evidence for a strong age imbalance, where rare deleterious alleles are expected to be substantially older than advantageous alleles observed at the same frequency when population-scaled mutation rates are large. These results highlight the under-appreciated utility of computational methods for the direct analysis of Markov chain models in population genetics.

Assessing the skill of hydrology models at simulating the water cycle in the HJ Andrews LTER: Assumptions, strengths and weaknesses

Science.gov (United States)

Simulated impacts of climate on hydrology can vary greatly as a function of the scale of the input data, model assumptions, and model structure. Four models are commonly used to simulate streamflow in model assumptions, and model structure. Four models are commonly used to simu...

Influence of model assumptions about HIV disease progression after initiating or stopping treatment on estimates of infections and deaths averted by scaling up antiretroviral therapy

Science.gov (United States)

Sucharitakul, Kanes; Boily, Marie-Claude; Dimitrov, Dobromir

2018-01-01

Background Many mathematical models have investigated the population-level impact of expanding antiretroviral therapy (ART), using different assumptions about HIV disease progression on ART and among ART dropouts. We evaluated the influence of these assumptions on model projections of the number of infections and deaths prevented by expanded ART. Methods A new dynamic model of HIV transmission among men who have sex with men (MSM) was developed, which incorporated each of four alternative assumptions about disease progression used in previous models: (A) ART slows disease progression; (B) ART halts disease progression; (C) ART reverses disease progression by increasing CD4 count; (D) ART reverses disease progression, but disease progresses rapidly once treatment is stopped. The model was independently calibrated to HIV prevalence and ART coverage data from the United States under each progression assumption in turn. New HIV infections and HIV-related deaths averted over 10 years were compared for fixed ART coverage increases. Results Little absolute difference (ART coverage (varied between 33% and 90%) if ART dropouts reinitiated ART at the same rate as ART-naïve MSM. Larger differences in the predicted fraction of HIV-related deaths averted were observed (up to 15pp). However, if ART dropouts could only reinitiate ART at CD4ART interruption did not affect the fraction of HIV infections averted with expanded ART, unless ART dropouts only re-initiated ART at low CD4 counts. Different disease progression assumptions had a larger influence on the fraction of HIV-related deaths averted with expanded ART. PMID:29554136

Estimating Risks and Relative Risks in Case-Base Studies under the Assumptions of Gene-Environment Independence and Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium

Science.gov (United States)

Chui, Tina Tsz-Ting; Lee, Wen-Chung

2014-01-01

Many diseases result from the interactions between genes and the environment. An efficient method has been proposed for a case-control study to estimate the genetic and environmental main effects and their interactions, which exploits the assumptions of gene-environment independence and Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. To estimate the absolute and relative risks, one needs to resort to an alternative design: the case-base study. In this paper, the authors show how to analyze a case-base study under the above dual assumptions. This approach is based on a conditional logistic regression of case-counterfactual controls matched data. It can be easily fitted with readily available statistical packages. When the dual assumptions are met, the method is approximately unbiased and has adequate coverage probabilities for confidence intervals. It also results in smaller variances and shorter confidence intervals as compared with a previous method for a case-base study which imposes neither assumption. PMID:25137392

Estimating risks and relative risks in case-base studies under the assumptions of gene-environment independence and Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tina Tsz-Ting Chui

Full Text Available Many diseases result from the interactions between genes and the environment. An efficient method has been proposed for a case-control study to estimate the genetic and environmental main effects and their interactions, which exploits the assumptions of gene-environment independence and Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. To estimate the absolute and relative risks, one needs to resort to an alternative design: the case-base study. In this paper, the authors show how to analyze a case-base study under the above dual assumptions. This approach is based on a conditional logistic regression of case-counterfactual controls matched data. It can be easily fitted with readily available statistical packages. When the dual assumptions are met, the method is approximately unbiased and has adequate coverage probabilities for confidence intervals. It also results in smaller variances and shorter confidence intervals as compared with a previous method for a case-base study which imposes neither assumption.

Behavioural assumptions in labour economics: Analysing social security reforms and labour market transitions

OpenAIRE

van Huizen, T.M.

2012-01-01

The aim of this dissertation is to test behavioural assumptions in labour economics models and thereby improve our understanding of labour market behaviour. The assumptions under scrutiny in this study are derived from an analysis of recent influential policy proposals: the introduction of savings schemes in the system of social security. A central question is how this reform will affect labour market incentives and behaviour. Part I (Chapter 2 and 3) evaluates savings schemes. Chapter 2 exam...

IRT models with relaxed assumptions in eRm: A manual-like instruction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

REINHOLD HATZINGER

2009-03-01

Full Text Available Linear logistic models with relaxed assumptions (LLRA as introduced by Fischer (1974 are a flexible tool for the measurement of change for dichotomous or polytomous responses. As opposed to the Rasch model, assumptions on dimensionality of items, their mutual dependencies and the distribution of the latent trait in the population of subjects are relaxed. Conditional maximum likelihood estimation allows for inference about treatment, covariate or trend effect parameters without taking the subjects' latent trait values into account. In this paper we will show how LLRAs based on the LLTM, LRSM and LPCM can be used to answer various questions about the measurement of change and how they can be fitted in R using the eRm package. A number of small didactic examples is provided that can easily be used as templates for real data sets. All datafiles used in this paper are available from http://eRm.R-Forge.R-project.org/

Three-class ROC analysis--the equal error utility assumption and the optimality of three-class ROC surface using the ideal observer.

Science.gov (United States)

He, Xin; Frey, Eric C

2006-08-01

Previously, we have developed a decision model for three-class receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis based on decision theory. The proposed decision model maximizes the expected decision utility under the assumption that incorrect decisions have equal utilities under the same hypothesis (equal error utility assumption). This assumption reduced the dimensionality of the "general" three-class ROC analysis and provided a practical figure-of-merit to evaluate the three-class task performance. However, it also limits the generality of the resulting model because the equal error utility assumption will not apply for all clinical three-class decision tasks. The goal of this study was to investigate the optimality of the proposed three-class decision model with respect to several other decision criteria. In particular, besides the maximum expected utility (MEU) criterion used in the previous study, we investigated the maximum-correctness (MC) (or minimum-error), maximum likelihood (ML), and Nyman-Pearson (N-P) criteria. We found that by making assumptions for both MEU and N-P criteria, all decision criteria lead to the previously-proposed three-class decision model. As a result, this model maximizes the expected utility under the equal error utility assumption, maximizes the probability of making correct decisions, satisfies the N-P criterion in the sense that it maximizes the sensitivity of one class given the sensitivities of the other two classes, and the resulting ROC surface contains the maximum likelihood decision operating point. While the proposed three-class ROC analysis model is not optimal in the general sense due to the use of the equal error utility assumption, the range of criteria for which it is optimal increases its applicability for evaluating and comparing a range of diagnostic systems.

Technoeconomic assumptions adopted for the development of a long-term electricity supply model for Cyprus.

Science.gov (United States)

Taliotis, Constantinos; Taibi, Emanuele; Howells, Mark; Rogner, Holger; Bazilian, Morgan; Welsch, Manuel

2017-10-01

The generation mix of Cyprus has been dominated by oil products for decades. In order to conform with European Union and international legislation, a transformation of the supply system is called for. Energy system models can facilitate energy planning into the future, but a large volume of data is required to populate such models. The present data article provides information on key modelling assumptions and input data adopted with the aim of representing the electricity supply system of Cyprus in a separate research article. Data in regards to renewable energy technoeconomic characteristics and investment cost projections, fossil fuel price projections, storage technology characteristics and system operation assumptions are described in this article.

Technoeconomic assumptions adopted for the development of a long-term electricity supply model for Cyprus

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Constantinos Taliotis

2017-10-01

Full Text Available The generation mix of Cyprus has been dominated by oil products for decades. In order to conform with European Union and international legislation, a transformation of the supply system is called for. Energy system models can facilitate energy planning into the future, but a large volume of data is required to populate such models. The present data article provides information on key modelling assumptions and input data adopted with the aim of representing the electricity supply system of Cyprus in a separate research article. Data in regards to renewable energy technoeconomic characteristics and investment cost projections, fossil fuel price projections, storage technology characteristics and system operation assumptions are described in this article.

Occupancy estimation and the closure assumption

Science.gov (United States)

Rota, Christopher T.; Fletcher, Robert J.; Dorazio, Robert M.; Betts, Matthew G.

2009-01-01

1. Recent advances in occupancy estimation that adjust for imperfect detection have provided substantial improvements over traditional approaches and are receiving considerable use in applied ecology. To estimate and adjust for detectability, occupancy modelling requires multiple surveys at a site and requires the assumption of 'closure' between surveys, i.e. no changes in occupancy between surveys. Violations of this assumption could bias parameter estimates; however, little work has assessed model sensitivity to violations of this assumption or how commonly such violations occur in nature. 2. We apply a modelling procedure that can test for closure to two avian point-count data sets in Montana and New Hampshire, USA, that exemplify time-scales at which closure is often assumed. These data sets illustrate different sampling designs that allow testing for closure but are currently rarely employed in field investigations. Using a simulation study, we then evaluate the sensitivity of parameter estimates to changes in site occupancy and evaluate a power analysis developed for sampling designs that is aimed at limiting the likelihood of closure. 3. Application of our approach to point-count data indicates that habitats may frequently be open to changes in site occupancy at time-scales typical of many occupancy investigations, with 71% and 100% of species investigated in Montana and New Hampshire respectively, showing violation of closure across time periods of 3 weeks and 8 days respectively. 4. Simulations suggest that models assuming closure are sensitive to changes in occupancy. Power analyses further suggest that the modelling procedure we apply can effectively test for closure. 5. Synthesis and applications. Our demonstration that sites may be open to changes in site occupancy over time-scales typical of many occupancy investigations, combined with the sensitivity of models to violations of the closure assumption, highlights the importance of properly addressing

Political Assumptions Underlying Pedagogies of National Education: The Case of Student Teachers Teaching 'British Values' in England

Science.gov (United States)

Sant, Edda; Hanley, Chris

2018-01-01

Teacher education in England now requires that student teachers follow practices that do not undermine "fundamental British values" where these practices are assessed against a set of ethics and behaviour standards. This paper examines the political assumptions underlying pedagogical interpretations about the education of national…

Testing the simplex assumption underlying the Sport Motivation Scale: a structural equation modeling analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, F; Harmer, P

1996-12-01

Self-determination theory (Deci & Ryan, 1985) suggests that motivational orientation or regulatory styles with respect to various behaviors can be conceptualized along a continuum ranging from low (a motivation) to high (intrinsic motivation) levels of self-determination. This pattern is manifested in the rank order of correlations among these regulatory styles (i.e., adjacent correlations are expected to be higher than those more distant) and is known as a simplex structure. Using responses from the Sport Motivation Scale (Pelletier et al., 1995) obtained from a sample of 857 college students (442 men, 415 women), the present study tested the simplex structure underlying SMS subscales via structural equation modeling. Results confirmed the simplex model structure, indicating that the various motivational constructs are empirically organized from low to high self-determination. The simplex pattern was further found to be invariant across gender. Findings from this study support the construct validity of the SMS and have important implications for studies focusing on the influence of motivational orientation in sport.

Multiverse Assumptions and Philosophy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

James R. Johnson

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Multiverses are predictions based on theories. Focusing on each theory’s assumptions is key to evaluating a proposed multiverse. Although accepted theories of particle physics and cosmology contain non-intuitive features, multiverse theories entertain a host of “strange” assumptions classified as metaphysical (outside objective experience, concerned with fundamental nature of reality, ideas that cannot be proven right or wrong topics such as: infinity, duplicate yous, hypothetical fields, more than three space dimensions, Hilbert space, advanced civilizations, and reality established by mathematical relationships. It is easy to confuse multiverse proposals because many divergent models exist. This overview defines the characteristics of eleven popular multiverse proposals. The characteristics compared are: initial conditions, values of constants, laws of nature, number of space dimensions, number of universes, and fine tuning explanations. Future scientific experiments may validate selected assumptions; but until they do, proposals by philosophers may be as valid as theoretical scientific theories.

Consequences of Violated Equating Assumptions under the Equivalent Groups Design

Science.gov (United States)

Lyren, Per-Erik; Hambleton, Ronald K.

2011-01-01

The equal ability distribution assumption associated with the equivalent groups equating design was investigated in the context of a selection test for admission to higher education. The purpose was to assess the consequences for the test-takers in terms of receiving improperly high or low scores compared to their peers, and to find strong…

Operating Characteristics of Statistical Methods for Detecting Gene-by-Measured Environment Interaction in the Presence of Gene-Environment Correlation under Violations of Distributional Assumptions.

Science.gov (United States)

Van Hulle, Carol A; Rathouz, Paul J

2015-02-01

Accurately identifying interactions between genetic vulnerabilities and environmental factors is of critical importance for genetic research on health and behavior. In the previous work of Van Hulle et al. (Behavior Genetics, Vol. 43, 2013, pp. 71-84), we explored the operating characteristics for a set of biometric (e.g., twin) models of Rathouz et al. (Behavior Genetics, Vol. 38, 2008, pp. 301-315), for testing gene-by-measured environment interaction (GxM) in the presence of gene-by-measured environment correlation (rGM) where data followed the assumed distributional structure. Here we explore the effects that violating distributional assumptions have on the operating characteristics of these same models even when structural model assumptions are correct. We simulated N = 2,000 replicates of n = 1,000 twin pairs under a number of conditions. Non-normality was imposed on either the putative moderator or on the ultimate outcome by ordinalizing or censoring the data. We examined the empirical Type I error rates and compared Bayesian information criterion (BIC) values. In general, non-normality in the putative moderator had little impact on the Type I error rates or BIC comparisons. In contrast, non-normality in the outcome was often mistaken for or masked GxM, especially when the outcome data were censored.

Testing the normality assumption in the sample selection model with an application to travel demand

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Klaauw, B.; Koning, R.H.

2003-01-01

In this article we introduce a test for the normality assumption in the sample selection model. The test is based on a flexible parametric specification of the density function of the error terms in the model. This specification follows a Hermite series with bivariate normality as a special case.

Testing the normality assumption in the sample selection model with an application to travel demand

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Klauw, B.; Koning, R.H.

In this article we introduce a test for the normality assumption in the sample selection model. The test is based on a flexible parametric specification of the density function of the error terms in the model. This specification follows a Hermite series with bivariate normality as a special case.

Individual Change and the Timing and Onset of Important Life Events: Methods, Models, and Assumptions

Science.gov (United States)

Grimm, Kevin; Marcoulides, Katerina

2016-01-01

Researchers are often interested in studying how the timing of a specific event affects concurrent and future development. When faced with such research questions there are multiple statistical models to consider and those models are the focus of this paper as well as their theoretical underpinnings and assumptions regarding the nature of the…

Topographic controls on shallow groundwater levels in a steep, prealpine catchment: When are the TWI assumptions valid?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rinderer, M.; van Meerveld, H.J.; Seibert, J.

2014-01-01

Topographic indices like the Topographic Wetness Index (TWI) have been used to predict spatial patterns of average groundwater levels and to model the dynamics of the saturated zone during events (e.g., TOPMODEL). However, the assumptions underlying the use of the TWI in hydrological models, of

Cloud-turbulence interactions: Sensitivity of a general circulation model to closure assumptions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brinkop, S.; Roeckner, E.

1993-01-01

Several approaches to parameterize the turbulent transport of momentum, heat, water vapour and cloud water for use in a general circulation model (GCM) have been tested in one-dimensional and three-dimensional model simulations. The schemes differ with respect to their closure assumptions (conventional eddy diffusivity model versus turbulent kinetic energy closure) and also regarding their treatment of cloud-turbulence interactions. The basis properties of these parameterizations are discussed first in column simulations of a stratocumulus-topped atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) under a strong subsidence inversion during the KONTROL experiment in the North Sea. It is found that the K-models tend to decouple the cloud layer from the adjacent layers because the turbulent activity is calculated from local variables. The higher-order scheme performs better in this respect because internally generated turbulence can be transported up and down through the action of turbulent diffusion. Thus, the TKE-scheme provides not only a better link between the cloud and the sub-cloud layer but also between the cloud and the inversion as a result of cloud-top entrainment. In the stratocumulus case study, where the cloud is confined by a pronounced subsidence inversion, increased entrainment favours cloud dilution through enhanced evaporation of cloud droplets. In the GCM study, however, additional cloud-top entrainment supports cloud formation because indirect cloud generating processes are promoted through efficient ventilation of the ABL, such as the enhanced moisture supply by surface evaporation and the increased depth of the ABL. As a result, tropical convection is more vigorous, the hydrological cycle is intensified, the whole troposphere becomes warmer and moister in general and the cloudiness in the upper part of the ABL is increased. (orig.)

Assumptions for the Annual Energy Outlook 1993

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-01-01

This report is an auxiliary document to the Annual Energy Outlook 1993 (AEO) (DOE/EIA-0383(93)). It presents a detailed discussion of the assumptions underlying the forecasts in the AEO. The energy modeling system is an economic equilibrium system, with component demand modules representing end-use energy consumption by major end-use sector. Another set of modules represents petroleum, natural gas, coal, and electricity supply patterns and pricing. A separate module generates annual forecasts of important macroeconomic and industrial output variables. Interactions among these components of energy markets generate projections of prices and quantities for which energy supply equals energy demand. This equilibrium modeling system is referred to as the Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS). The supply models in IFFS for oil, coal, natural gas, and electricity determine supply and price for each fuel depending upon consumption levels, while the demand models determine consumption depending upon end-use price. IFFS solves for market equilibrium for each fuel by balancing supply and demand to produce an energy balance in each forecast year

TESTING THE ASSUMPTIONS AND INTERPRETING THE RESULTS OF THE RASCH MODEL USING LOG-LINEAR PROCEDURES IN SPSS

NARCIS (Netherlands)

TENVERGERT, E; GILLESPIE, M; KINGMA, J

This paper shows how to use the log-linear subroutine of SPSS to fit the Rasch model. It also shows how to fit less restrictive models obtained by relaxing specific assumptions of the Rasch model. Conditional maximum likelihood estimation was achieved by including dummy variables for the total

Challenging Assumptions of International Public Relations: When Government Is the Most Important Public.

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor, Maureen; Kent, Michael L.

1999-01-01

Explores assumptions underlying Malaysia's and the United States' public-relations practice. Finds many assumptions guiding Western theories and practices are not applicable to other countries. Examines the assumption that the practice of public relations targets a variety of key organizational publics. Advances international public-relations…

Simulating residential demand response: Improving socio-technical assumptions in activity-based models of energy demand

OpenAIRE

McKenna, E.; Higginson, S.; Grunewald, P.; Darby, S. J.

2017-01-01

Demand response is receiving increasing interest as a new form of flexibility within low-carbon power systems. Energy models are an important tool to assess the potential capability of demand side contributions. This paper critically reviews the assumptions in current models and introduces a new conceptual framework to better facilitate such an assessment. We propose three dimensions along which change could occur, namely technology, activities and service expectations. Using this framework, ...

Under What Assumptions Do Site-by-Treatment Instruments Identify Average Causal Effects?

Science.gov (United States)

Reardon, Sean F.; Raudenbush, Stephen W.

2013-01-01

The increasing availability of data from multi-site randomized trials provides a potential opportunity to use instrumental variables methods to study the effects of multiple hypothesized mediators of the effect of a treatment. We derive nine assumptions needed to identify the effects of multiple mediators when using site-by-treatment interactions…

Assumptions and Policy Decisions for Vital Area Identification Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Myungsu; Bae, Yeon-Kyoung; Lee, Youngseung [KHNP CRI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-10-15

U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and IAEA guidance indicate that certain assumptions and policy questions should be addressed to a Vital Area Identification (VAI) process. Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power conducted a VAI based on current Design Basis Threat and engineering judgement to identify APR1400 vital areas. Some of the assumptions were inherited from Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) as a sabotage logic model was based on PSA logic tree and equipment location data. This paper illustrates some important assumptions and policy decisions for APR1400 VAI analysis. Assumptions and policy decisions could be overlooked at the beginning stage of VAI, however they should be carefully reviewed and discussed among engineers, plant operators, and regulators. Through APR1400 VAI process, some of the policy concerns and assumptions for analysis were applied based on document research and expert panel discussions. It was also found that there are more assumptions to define for further studies for other types of nuclear power plants. One of the assumptions is mission time, which was inherited from PSA.

Generic distortion model for metrology under optical microscopes

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Xingjian; Li, Zhongwei; Zhong, Kai; Chao, YuhJin; Miraldo, Pedro; Shi, Yusheng

2018-04-01

For metrology under optical microscopes, lens distortion is the dominant source of error. Previous distortion models and correction methods mostly rely on the assumption that parametric distortion models require a priori knowledge of the microscopes' lens systems. However, because of the numerous optical elements in a microscope, distortions can be hardly represented by a simple parametric model. In this paper, a generic distortion model considering both symmetric and asymmetric distortions is developed. Such a model is obtained by using radial basis functions (RBFs) to interpolate the radius and distortion values of symmetric distortions (image coordinates and distortion rays for asymmetric distortions). An accurate and easy to implement distortion correction method is presented. With the proposed approach, quantitative measurement with better accuracy can be achieved, such as in Digital Image Correlation for deformation measurement when used with an optical microscope. The proposed technique is verified by both synthetic and real data experiments.

The Importance of the Assumption of Uncorrelated Errors in Psychometric Theory

Science.gov (United States)

Raykov, Tenko; Marcoulides, George A.; Patelis, Thanos

2015-01-01

A critical discussion of the assumption of uncorrelated errors in classical psychometric theory and its applications is provided. It is pointed out that this assumption is essential for a number of fundamental results and underlies the concept of parallel tests, the Spearman-Brown's prophecy and the correction for attenuation formulas as well as…

Extracurricular Business Planning Competitions: Challenging the Assumptions

Science.gov (United States)

Watson, Kayleigh; McGowan, Pauric; Smith, Paul

2014-01-01

Business planning competitions [BPCs] are a commonly offered yet under-examined extracurricular activity. Given the extent of sceptical comment about business planning, this paper offers what the authors believe is a much-needed critical discussion of the assumptions that underpin the provision of such competitions. In doing so it is suggested…

A Partially-Stirred Batch Reactor Model for Under-Ventilated Fire Dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

McDermott, Randall; Weinschenk, Craig

2013-11-01

A simple discrete quadrature method is developed for closure of the mean chemical source term in large-eddy simulations (LES) and implemented in the publicly available fire model, Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS). The method is cast as a partially-stirred batch reactor model for each computational cell. The model has three distinct components: (1) a subgrid mixing environment, (2) a mixing model, and (3) a set of chemical rate laws. The subgrid probability density function (PDF) is described by a linear combination of Dirac delta functions with quadrature weights set to satisfy simple integral constraints for the computational cell. It is shown that under certain limiting assumptions, the present method reduces to the eddy dissipation concept (EDC). The model is used to predict carbon monoxide concentrations in direct numerical simulation (DNS) of a methane slot burner and in LES of an under-ventilated compartment fire.

The social contact hypothesis under the assumption of endemic equilibrium: Elucidating the transmission potential of VZV in Europe

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. Santermans

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The basic reproduction number R0 and the effective reproduction number R are pivotal parameters in infectious disease epidemiology, quantifying the transmission potential of an infection in a population. We estimate both parameters from 13 pre-vaccination serological data sets on varicella zoster virus (VZV in 12 European countries and from population-based social contact surveys under the commonly made assumptions of endemic and demographic equilibrium. The fit to the serology is evaluated using the inferred effective reproduction number R as a model eligibility criterion combined with AIC as a model selection criterion. For only 2 out of 12 countries, the common choice of a constant proportionality factor is sufficient to provide a good fit to the seroprevalence data. For the other countries, an age-specific proportionality factor provides a better fit, assuming physical contacts lasting longer than 15 min are a good proxy for potential varicella transmission events. In all countries, primary infection with VZV most often occurs in early childhood, but there is substantial variation in transmission potential with R0 ranging from 2.8 in England and Wales to 7.6 in The Netherlands. Two non-parametric methods, the maximal information coefficient (MIC and a random forest approach, are used to explain these differences in R0 in terms of relevant country-specific characteristics. Our results suggest an association with three general factors: inequality in wealth, infant vaccination coverage and child care attendance. This illustrates the need to consider fundamental differences between European countries when formulating and parameterizing infectious disease models.

Life Support Baseline Values and Assumptions Document

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, Molly S.; Ewert, Michael K.; Keener, John F.

2018-01-01

The Baseline Values and Assumptions Document (BVAD) provides analysts, modelers, and other life support researchers with a common set of values and assumptions which can be used as a baseline in their studies. This baseline, in turn, provides a common point of origin from which many studies in the community may depart, making research results easier to compare and providing researchers with reasonable values to assume for areas outside their experience. This document identifies many specific physical quantities that define life support systems, serving as a general reference for spacecraft life support system technology developers.

NONLINEAR MODELS FOR DESCRIPTION OF CACAO FRUIT GROWTH WITH ASSUMPTION VIOLATIONS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

JOEL AUGUSTO MUNIZ

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Cacao (Theobroma cacao L. is an important fruit in the Brazilian economy, which is mainly cultivated in the southern State of Bahia. The optimal stage for harvesting is a major factor for fruit quality and the knowledge on its growth curves can help, especially in identifying the ideal maturation stage for harvesting. Nonlinear regression models have been widely used for description of growth curves. However, several studies in this subject do not consider the residual analysis, the existence of a possible dependence between longitudinal observations, or the sample variance heterogeneity, compromising the modeling quality. The objective of this work was to compare the fit of nonlinear regression models, considering residual analysis and assumption violations, in the description of the cacao (clone Sial-105 fruit growth. The data evaluated were extracted from Brito and Silva (1983, who conducted the experiment in the Cacao Research Center, Ilheus, State of Bahia. The variables fruit length, diameter and volume as a function of fruit age were studied. The use of weighting and incorporation of residual dependencies was efficient, since the modeling became more consistent, improving the model fit. Considering the first-order autoregressive structure, when needed, leads to significant reduction in the residual standard deviation, making the estimates more reliable. The Logistic model was the most efficient for the description of the cacao fruit growth.

Shattering world assumptions: A prospective view of the impact of adverse events on world assumptions.

Science.gov (United States)

Schuler, Eric R; Boals, Adriel

2016-05-01

Shattered Assumptions theory (Janoff-Bulman, 1992) posits that experiencing a traumatic event has the potential to diminish the degree of optimism in the assumptions of the world (assumptive world), which could lead to the development of posttraumatic stress disorder. Prior research assessed the assumptive world with a measure that was recently reported to have poor psychometric properties (Kaler et al., 2008). The current study had 3 aims: (a) to assess the psychometric properties of a recently developed measure of the assumptive world, (b) to retrospectively examine how prior adverse events affected the optimism of the assumptive world, and (c) to measure the impact of an intervening adverse event. An 8-week prospective design with a college sample (N = 882 at Time 1 and N = 511 at Time 2) was used to assess the study objectives. We split adverse events into those that were objectively or subjectively traumatic in nature. The new measure exhibited adequate psychometric properties. The report of a prior objective or subjective trauma at Time 1 was related to a less optimistic assumptive world. Furthermore, participants who experienced an intervening objectively traumatic event evidenced a decrease in optimistic views of the world compared with those who did not experience an intervening adverse event. We found support for Shattered Assumptions theory retrospectively and prospectively using a reliable measure of the assumptive world. We discuss future assessments of the measure of the assumptive world and clinical implications to help rebuild the assumptive world with current therapies. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Modeling of porous concrete elements under load

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Demchyna B.H.

2017-12-01

Full Text Available It is known that cell concretes are almost immediately destroyed under load, having reached certain critical stresses. Such kind of destruction is called a “catastrophic failure”. Process of crack formation is one of the main factors, influencing process of concrete destruction. Modern theory of crack formation is mainly based on the Griffith theory of destruction. However, the mentioned theory does not completely correspond to the structure of cell concrete with its cell structure, because the theory is intended for a solid body. The article presents one of the possible variants of modelling of the structure of cell concrete and gives some assumptions concerning the process of crack formation in such hollow, not solid environment.

Modeling of porous concrete elements under load

Science.gov (United States)

Demchyna, B. H.; Famuliak, Yu. Ye.; Demchyna, Kh. B.

2017-12-01

It is known that cell concretes are almost immediately destroyed under load, having reached certain critical stresses. Such kind of destruction is called a "catastrophic failure". Process of crack formation is one of the main factors, influencing process of concrete destruction. Modern theory of crack formation is mainly based on the Griffith theory of destruction. However, the mentioned theory does not completely correspond to the structure of cell concrete with its cell structure, because the theory is intended for a solid body. The article presents one of the possible variants of modelling of the structure of cell concrete and gives some assumptions concerning the process of crack formation in such hollow, not solid environment.

Weak convergence of Jacobian determinants under asymmetric assumptions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Teresa Alberico

2012-05-01

Full Text Available Let $\\Om$ be a bounded open set in $\\R^2$ sufficiently smooth and $f_k=(u_k,v_k$ and $f=(u,v$ mappings belong to the Sobolev space $W^{1,2}(\\Om,\\R^2$. We prove that if the sequence of Jacobians $J_{f_k}$ converges to a measure $\\mu$ in sense of measures andif one allows different assumptions on the two components of $f_k$ and $f$, e.g.$$u_k \\rightharpoonup u \\;\\;\\mbox{weakly in} \\;\\; W^{1,2}(\\Om \\qquad \\, v_k \\rightharpoonup v \\;\\;\\mbox{weakly in} \\;\\; W^{1,q}(\\Om$$for some $q\\in(1,2$, then\\begin{equation}\\label{0}d\\mu=J_f\\,dz.\\end{equation}Moreover, we show that this result is optimal in the sense that conclusion fails for $q=1$.On the other hand, we prove that \\eqref{0} remains valid also if one considers the case $q=1$, but it is necessary to require that $u_k$ weakly converges to $u$ in a Zygmund-Sobolev space with a slightly higher degree of regularity than $W^{1,2}(\\Om$ and precisely$$ u_k \\rightharpoonup u \\;\\;\\mbox{weakly in} \\;\\; W^{1,L^2 \\log^\\alpha L}(\\Om$$for some $\\alpha >1$.    

Adult Learning Assumptions

Science.gov (United States)

Baskas, Richard S.

2011-01-01

The purpose of this study is to examine Knowles' theory of andragogy and his six assumptions of how adults learn while providing evidence to support two of his assumptions based on the theory of andragogy. As no single theory explains how adults learn, it can best be assumed that adults learn through the accumulation of formal and informal…

Bioclim Deliverable D6b: application of statistical down-scaling within the BIOCLIM hierarchical strategy: methods, data requirements and underlying assumptions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-01-01

The overall aim of BIOCLIM is to assess the possible long term impacts due to climate change on the safety of radioactive waste repositories in deep formations. The coarse spatial scale of the Earth-system Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) used in BIOCLIM compared with the BIOCLIM study regions and the needs of performance assessment creates a need for down-scaling. Most of the developmental work on down-scaling methodologies undertaken by the international research community has focused on down-scaling from the general circulation model (GCM) scale (with a typical spatial resolution of 400 km by 400 km over Europe in the current generation of models) using dynamical down-scaling (i.e., regional climate models (RCMs), which typically have a spatial resolution of 50 km by 50 km for models whose domain covers the European region) or statistical methods (which can provide information at the point or station scale) in order to construct scenarios of anthropogenic climate change up to 2100. Dynamical down-scaling (with the MAR RCM) is used in BIOCLIM WP2 to down-scale from the GCM (i.e., IPSL C M4 D ) scale. In the original BIOCLIM description of work, it was proposed that UEA would apply statistical down-scaling to IPSL C M4 D output in WP2 as part of the hierarchical strategy. Statistical down-scaling requires the identification of statistical relationships between the observed large-scale and regional/local climate, which are then applied to large-scale GCM output, on the assumption that these relationships remain valid in the future (the assumption of stationarity). Thus it was proposed that UEA would investigate the extent to which it is possible to apply relationships between the present-day large-scale and regional/local climate to the relatively extreme conditions of the BIOCLIM WP2 snapshot simulations. Potential statistical down-scaling methodologies were identified from previous work performed at UEA. Appropriate station data from the case

Impact of one-layer assumption on diffuse reflectance spectroscopy of skin

Science.gov (United States)

Hennessy, Ricky; Markey, Mia K.; Tunnell, James W.

2015-02-01

Diffuse reflectance spectroscopy (DRS) can be used to noninvasively measure skin properties. To extract skin properties from DRS spectra, you need a model that relates the reflectance to the tissue properties. Most models are based on the assumption that skin is homogenous. In reality, skin is composed of multiple layers, and the homogeneity assumption can lead to errors. In this study, we analyze the errors caused by the homogeneity assumption. This is accomplished by creating realistic skin spectra using a computational model, then extracting properties from those spectra using a one-layer model. The extracted parameters are then compared to the parameters used to create the modeled spectra. We used a wavelength range of 400 to 750 nm and a source detector separation of 250 μm. Our results show that use of a one-layer skin model causes underestimation of hemoglobin concentration [Hb] and melanin concentration [mel]. Additionally, the magnitude of the error is dependent on epidermal thickness. The one-layer assumption also causes [Hb] and [mel] to be correlated. Oxygen saturation is overestimated when it is below 50% and underestimated when it is above 50%. We also found that the vessel radius factor used to account for pigment packaging is correlated with epidermal thickness.

Stress-reducing preventive maintenance model for a unit under stressful environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, J.H.; Chang, Woojin; Lie, C.H.

2012-01-01

We develop a preventive maintenance (PM) model for a unit operated under stressful environment. The PM model in this paper consists of a failure rate model and two cost models to determine the optimal PM scheduling which minimizes a cost rate. The assumption for the proposed model is that stressful environment accelerates the failure of the unit and periodic maintenances reduce stress from outside. The failure rate model handles the maintenance effect of PM using improvement and stress factors. The cost models are categorized into two failure recognition cases: immediate failure recognition and periodic failure detection. The optimal PM scheduling is obtained by considering the trade-off between the related cost and the lifetime of a unit in our model setting. The practical usage of our proposed model is tested through a numerical example.

A quantitative evaluation of a qualitative risk assessment framework: Examining the assumptions and predictions of the Productivity Susceptibility Analysis (PSA)

Science.gov (United States)

2018-01-01

Qualitative risk assessment frameworks, such as the Productivity Susceptibility Analysis (PSA), have been developed to rapidly evaluate the risks of fishing to marine populations and prioritize management and research among species. Despite being applied to over 1,000 fish populations, and an ongoing debate about the most appropriate method to convert biological and fishery characteristics into an overall measure of risk, the assumptions and predictive capacity of these approaches have not been evaluated. Several interpretations of the PSA were mapped to a conventional age-structured fisheries dynamics model to evaluate the performance of the approach under a range of assumptions regarding exploitation rates and measures of biological risk. The results demonstrate that the underlying assumptions of these qualitative risk-based approaches are inappropriate, and the expected performance is poor for a wide range of conditions. The information required to score a fishery using a PSA-type approach is comparable to that required to populate an operating model and evaluating the population dynamics within a simulation framework. In addition to providing a more credible characterization of complex system dynamics, the operating model approach is transparent, reproducible and can evaluate alternative management strategies over a range of plausible hypotheses for the system. PMID:29856869

Modeling assumptions influence on stress and strain state in 450 t cranes hoisting winch construction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Damian GĄSKA

2011-01-01

Full Text Available This work investigates the FEM simulation of stress and strain state of the selected trolley’s load-carrying structure with 450 tones hoisting capacity [1]. Computational loads were adopted as in standard PN-EN 13001-2. Model of trolley was built from several cooperating with each other (in contact parts. The influence of model assumptions (simplification in selected construction nodes to the value of maximum stress and strain with its area of occurrence was being analyzed. The aim of this study was to determine whether the simplification, which reduces the time required to prepare the model and perform calculations (e.g., rigid connection instead of contact are substantially changing the characteristics of the model.

Contemporary assumptions on human nature and work and approach to human potential managing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vujić Dobrila

2006-01-01

Full Text Available A general problem of this research is to identify if there is a relationship between the assumption on human nature and work (Mcgregor, Argyris, Schein, Steers and Porter and a general organizational model preference, as well as a mechanism of human resource management? This research was carried out in 2005/2006. The sample consisted of 317 subjects (197 managers, 105 highly educated subordinates and 15 entrepreneurs in 7 big enterprises in a group of small business enterprises differentiating in terms of the entrepreneur’s structure and a type of activity. A general hypothesis "that assumptions on human nature and work are statistically significant in connection to the preference approach (models, of work motivation commitment", has been confirmed. A specific hypothesis have been also confirmed: ·The assumptions on a human as a rational economic being are statistically significant in correlation with only two mechanisms of traditional models, the mechanism of method work control and the working discipline mechanism. ·Statistically significant assumptions on a human as a social being are correlated with all mechanisms of engaging employees, which belong to the model of the human relations, except the mechanism introducing the adequate type of prizes for all employees independently of working results. ·The assumptions on a human as a creative being are statistically significant, positively correlating with preference of two mechanisms belonging to the human resource model by investing into education and training and making conditions for the application of knowledge and skills. The young with assumptions on a human as a creative being prefer much broader repertoire of mechanisms belonging to the human resources model from the remaining category of subjects in the pattern. The connection between the assumption on human nature and preference models of engaging appears especially in the sub-pattern of managers, in the category of young subjects

The ruin probability of a discrete time risk model under constant interest rate with heavy tails

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tang, Q.

2004-01-01

This paper investigates the ultimate ruin probability of a discrete time risk model with a positive constant interest rate. Under the assumption that the gross loss of the company within one year is subexponentially distributed, a simple asymptotic relation for the ruin probability is derived and

Judging statistical models of individual decision making under risk using in- and out-of-sample criteria.

Science.gov (United States)

Drichoutis, Andreas C; Lusk, Jayson L

2014-01-01

Despite the fact that conceptual models of individual decision making under risk are deterministic, attempts to econometrically estimate risk preferences require some assumption about the stochastic nature of choice. Unfortunately, the consequences of making different assumptions are, at present, unclear. In this paper, we compare three popular error specifications (Fechner, contextual utility, and Luce error) for three different preference functionals (expected utility, rank-dependent utility, and a mixture of those two) using in- and out-of-sample selection criteria. We find drastically different inferences about structural risk preferences across the competing functionals and error specifications. Expected utility theory is least affected by the selection of the error specification. A mixture model combining the two conceptual models assuming contextual utility provides the best fit of the data both in- and out-of-sample.

Judging statistical models of individual decision making under risk using in- and out-of-sample criteria.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andreas C Drichoutis

Full Text Available Despite the fact that conceptual models of individual decision making under risk are deterministic, attempts to econometrically estimate risk preferences require some assumption about the stochastic nature of choice. Unfortunately, the consequences of making different assumptions are, at present, unclear. In this paper, we compare three popular error specifications (Fechner, contextual utility, and Luce error for three different preference functionals (expected utility, rank-dependent utility, and a mixture of those two using in- and out-of-sample selection criteria. We find drastically different inferences about structural risk preferences across the competing functionals and error specifications. Expected utility theory is least affected by the selection of the error specification. A mixture model combining the two conceptual models assuming contextual utility provides the best fit of the data both in- and out-of-sample.

Modelling carbonaceous aerosol from residential solid fuel burning with different assumptions for emissions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Ots

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Evidence is accumulating that emissions of primary particulate matter (PM from residential wood and coal combustion in the UK may be underestimated and/or spatially misclassified. In this study, different assumptions for the spatial distribution and total emission of PM from solid fuel (wood and coal burning in the UK were tested using an atmospheric chemical transport model. Modelled concentrations of the PM components were compared with measurements from aerosol mass spectrometers at four sites in central and Greater London (ClearfLo campaign, 2012, as well as with measurements from the UK black carbon network.The two main alternative emission scenarios modelled were Base4x and combRedist. For Base4x, officially reported PM2.5 from the residential and other non-industrial combustion source sector were increased by a factor of four. For the combRedist experiment, half of the baseline emissions from this same source were redistributed by residential population density to simulate the effect of allocating some emissions to the smoke control areas (that are assumed in the national inventory to have no emissions from this source. The Base4x scenario yielded better daily and hourly correlations with measurements than the combRedist scenario for year-long comparisons of the solid fuel organic aerosol (SFOA component at the two London sites. However, the latter scenario better captured mean measured concentrations across all four sites. A third experiment, Redist – all emissions redistributed linearly to population density, is also presented as an indicator of the maximum concentrations an assumption like this could yield.The modelled elemental carbon (EC concentrations derived from the combRedist experiments also compared well with seasonal average concentrations of black carbon observed across the network of UK sites. Together, the two model scenario simulations of SFOA and EC suggest both that residential solid fuel emissions may be higher than

Modelling carbonaceous aerosol from residential solid fuel burning with different assumptions for emissions

Science.gov (United States)

Ots, Riinu; Heal, Mathew R.; Young, Dominique E.; Williams, Leah R.; Allan, James D.; Nemitz, Eiko; Di Marco, Chiara; Detournay, Anais; Xu, Lu; Ng, Nga L.; Coe, Hugh; Herndon, Scott C.; Mackenzie, Ian A.; Green, David C.; Kuenen, Jeroen J. P.; Reis, Stefan; Vieno, Massimo

2018-04-01

Evidence is accumulating that emissions of primary particulate matter (PM) from residential wood and coal combustion in the UK may be underestimated and/or spatially misclassified. In this study, different assumptions for the spatial distribution and total emission of PM from solid fuel (wood and coal) burning in the UK were tested using an atmospheric chemical transport model. Modelled concentrations of the PM components were compared with measurements from aerosol mass spectrometers at four sites in central and Greater London (ClearfLo campaign, 2012), as well as with measurements from the UK black carbon network.The two main alternative emission scenarios modelled were Base4x and combRedist. For Base4x, officially reported PM2.5 from the residential and other non-industrial combustion source sector were increased by a factor of four. For the combRedist experiment, half of the baseline emissions from this same source were redistributed by residential population density to simulate the effect of allocating some emissions to the smoke control areas (that are assumed in the national inventory to have no emissions from this source). The Base4x scenario yielded better daily and hourly correlations with measurements than the combRedist scenario for year-long comparisons of the solid fuel organic aerosol (SFOA) component at the two London sites. However, the latter scenario better captured mean measured concentrations across all four sites. A third experiment, Redist - all emissions redistributed linearly to population density, is also presented as an indicator of the maximum concentrations an assumption like this could yield.The modelled elemental carbon (EC) concentrations derived from the combRedist experiments also compared well with seasonal average concentrations of black carbon observed across the network of UK sites. Together, the two model scenario simulations of SFOA and EC suggest both that residential solid fuel emissions may be higher than inventory

An estimator of the survival function based on the semi-Markov model under dependent censorship.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Seung-Yeoun; Tsai, Wei-Yann

2005-06-01

Lee and Wolfe (Biometrics vol. 54 pp. 1176-1178, 1998) proposed the two-stage sampling design for testing the assumption of independent censoring, which involves further follow-up of a subset of lost-to-follow-up censored subjects. They also proposed an adjusted estimator for the survivor function for a proportional hazards model under the dependent censoring model. In this paper, a new estimator for the survivor function is proposed for the semi-Markov model under the dependent censorship on the basis of the two-stage sampling data. The consistency and the asymptotic distribution of the proposed estimator are derived. The estimation procedure is illustrated with an example of lung cancer clinical trial and simulation results are reported of the mean squared errors of estimators under a proportional hazards and two different nonproportional hazards models.

Ontological, Epistemological and Methodological Assumptions: Qualitative versus Quantitative

Science.gov (United States)

Ahmed, Abdelhamid

2008-01-01

The review to follow is a comparative analysis of two studies conducted in the field of TESOL in Education published in "TESOL QUARTERLY." The aspects to be compared are as follows. First, a brief description of each study will be presented. Second, the ontological, epistemological and methodological assumptions underlying each study…

Maximum likelihood fitting of FROC curves under an initial-detection-and-candidate-analysis model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Edwards, Darrin C.; Kupinski, Matthew A.; Metz, Charles E.; Nishikawa, Robert M.

2002-01-01

We have developed a model for FROC curve fitting that relates the observer's FROC performance not to the ROC performance that would be obtained if the observer's responses were scored on a per image basis, but rather to a hypothesized ROC performance that the observer would obtain in the task of classifying a set of 'candidate detections' as positive or negative. We adopt the assumptions of the Bunch FROC model, namely that the observer's detections are all mutually independent, as well as assumptions qualitatively similar to, but different in nature from, those made by Chakraborty in his AFROC scoring methodology. Under the assumptions of our model, we show that the observer's FROC performance is a linearly scaled version of the candidate analysis ROC curve, where the scaling factors are just given by the FROC operating point coordinates for detecting initial candidates. Further, we show that the likelihood function of the model parameters given observational data takes on a simple form, and we develop a maximum likelihood method for fitting a FROC curve to this data. FROC and AFROC curves are produced for computer vision observer datasets and compared with the results of the AFROC scoring method. Although developed primarily with computer vision schemes in mind, we hope that the methodology presented here will prove worthy of further study in other applications as well

Direct numerical simulations of temporally developing hydrocarbon shear flames at elevated pressure: effects of the equation of state and the unity Lewis number assumption

Science.gov (United States)

Korucu, Ayse; Miller, Richard

2016-11-01

Direct numerical simulations (DNS) of temporally developing shear flames are used to investigate both equation of state (EOS) and unity-Lewis (Le) number assumption effects in hydrocarbon flames at elevated pressure. A reduced Kerosene / Air mechanism including a semi-global soot formation/oxidation model is used to study soot formation/oxidation processes in a temporarlly developing hydrocarbon shear flame operating at both atmospheric and elevated pressures for the cubic Peng-Robinson real fluid EOS. Results are compared to simulations using the ideal gas law (IGL). The results show that while the unity-Le number assumption with the IGL EOS under-predicts the flame temperature for all pressures, with the real fluid EOS it under-predicts the flame temperature for 1 and 35 atm and over-predicts the rest. The soot mass fraction, Ys, is only under-predicted for the 1 atm flame for both IGL and real gas fluid EOS models. While Ys is over-predicted for elevated pressures with IGL EOS, for the real gas EOS Ys's predictions are similar to results using a non-unity Le model derived from non-equilibrium thermodynamics and real diffusivities. Adopting the unity Le assumption is shown to cause misprediction of Ys, the flame temperature, and the mass fractions of CO, H and OH.

Dynamics Under Location Uncertainty: Model Derivation, Modified Transport and Uncertainty Quantification

Science.gov (United States)

Resseguier, V.; Memin, E.; Chapron, B.; Fox-Kemper, B.

2017-12-01

In order to better observe and predict geophysical flows, ensemble-based data assimilation methods are of high importance. In such methods, an ensemble of random realizations represents the variety of the simulated flow's likely behaviors. For this purpose, randomness needs to be introduced in a suitable way and physically-based stochastic subgrid parametrizations are promising paths. This talk will propose a new kind of such a parametrization referred to as modeling under location uncertainty. The fluid velocity is decomposed into a resolved large-scale component and an aliased small-scale one. The first component is possibly random but time-correlated whereas the second is white-in-time but spatially-correlated and possibly inhomogeneous and anisotropic. With such a velocity, the material derivative of any - possibly active - tracer is modified. Three new terms appear: a correction of the large-scale advection, a multiplicative noise and a possibly heterogeneous and anisotropic diffusion. This parameterization naturally ensures attractive properties such as energy conservation for each realization. Additionally, this stochastic material derivative and the associated Reynolds' transport theorem offer a systematic method to derive stochastic models. In particular, we will discuss the consequences of the Quasi-Geostrophic assumptions in our framework. Depending on the turbulence amount, different models with different physical behaviors are obtained. Under strong turbulence assumptions, a simplified diagnosis of frontolysis and frontogenesis at the surface of the ocean is possible in this framework. A Surface Quasi-Geostrophic (SQG) model with a weaker noise influence has also been simulated. A single realization better represents small scales than a deterministic SQG model at the same resolution. Moreover, an ensemble accurately predicts extreme events, bifurcations as well as the amplitudes and the positions of the simulation errors. Figure 1 highlights this last

Evaluating methodological assumptions of a catch-curve survival estimation of unmarked precocial shorebird chickes

Science.gov (United States)

McGowan, Conor P.; Gardner, Beth

2013-01-01

Estimating productivity for precocial species can be difficult because young birds leave their nest within hours or days of hatching and detectability thereafter can be very low. Recently, a method for using a modified catch-curve to estimate precocial chick daily survival for age based count data was presented using Piping Plover (Charadrius melodus) data from the Missouri River. However, many of the assumptions of the catch-curve approach were not fully evaluated for precocial chicks. We developed a simulation model to mimic Piping Plovers, a fairly representative shorebird, and age-based count-data collection. Using the simulated data, we calculated daily survival estimates and compared them with the known daily survival rates from the simulation model. We conducted these comparisons under different sampling scenarios where the ecological and statistical assumptions had been violated. Overall, the daily survival estimates calculated from the simulated data corresponded well with true survival rates of the simulation. Violating the accurate aging and the independence assumptions did not result in biased daily survival estimates, whereas unequal detection for younger or older birds and violating the birth death equilibrium did result in estimator bias. Assuring that all ages are equally detectable and timing data collection to approximately meet the birth death equilibrium are key to the successful use of this method for precocial shorebirds.

Spatial modelling of assumption of tourism development with geographic IT using

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jitka Machalová

2010-01-01

Full Text Available The aim of this article is to show the possibilities of spatial modelling and analysing of assumptions of tourism development in the Czech Republic with the objective to make decision-making processes in tourism easier and more efficient (for companies, clients as well as destination managements. The development and placement of tourism depend on the factors (conditions that influence its application in specific areas. These factors are usually divided into three groups: selective, localization and realization. Tourism is inseparably connected with space – countryside. The countryside can be modelled and consecutively analysed by the means of geographical information technologies. With the help of spatial modelling and following analyses the localization and realization conditions in the regions of the Czech Republic have been evaluated. The best localization conditions have been found in the Liberecký region. The capital city of Prague has negligible natural conditions; however, those social ones are on a high level. Next, the spatial analyses have shown that the best realization conditions are provided by the capital city of Prague. Then the Central-Bohemian, South-Moravian, Moravian-Silesian and Karlovarský regions follow. The development of tourism destination is depended not only on the localization and realization factors but it is basically affected by the level of local destination management. Spatial modelling can help destination managers in decision-making processes in order to optimal use of destination potential and efficient targeting their marketing activities.

Stability and disease persistence in an age-structured SIS epidemic model with vertical transmission and proportionate mixing assumption

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

El-Doma, M.

2001-02-01

The stability of the endemic equilibrium of an SIS age-structured epidemic model of a vertically as well as horizontally transmitted disease is investigated when the force of infection is of proportionate mixing assumption type. We also investigate the uniform weak disease persistence. (author)

Assumption-versus data-based approaches to summarizing species' ranges.

Science.gov (United States)

Peterson, A Townsend; Navarro-Sigüenza, Adolfo G; Gordillo, Alejandro

2018-06-01

For conservation decision making, species' geographic distributions are mapped using various approaches. Some such efforts have downscaled versions of coarse-resolution extent-of-occurrence maps to fine resolutions for conservation planning. We examined the quality of the extent-of-occurrence maps as range summaries and the utility of refining those maps into fine-resolution distributional hypotheses. Extent-of-occurrence maps tend to be overly simple, omit many known and well-documented populations, and likely frequently include many areas not holding populations. Refinement steps involve typological assumptions about habitat preferences and elevational ranges of species, which can introduce substantial error in estimates of species' true areas of distribution. However, no model-evaluation steps are taken to assess the predictive ability of these models, so model inaccuracies are not noticed. Whereas range summaries derived by these methods may be useful in coarse-grained, global-extent studies, their continued use in on-the-ground conservation applications at fine spatial resolutions is not advisable in light of reliance on assumptions, lack of real spatial resolution, and lack of testing. In contrast, data-driven techniques that integrate primary data on biodiversity occurrence with remotely sensed data that summarize environmental dimensions (i.e., ecological niche modeling or species distribution modeling) offer data-driven solutions based on a minimum of assumptions that can be evaluated and validated quantitatively to offer a well-founded, widely accepted method for summarizing species' distributional patterns for conservation applications. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Uncertainties in sandy shorelines evolution under the Bruun rule assumption

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gonéri eLe Cozannet

2016-04-01

Full Text Available In the current practice of sandy shoreline change assessments, the local sedimentary budget is evaluated using the sediment balance equation, that is, by summing the contributions of longshore and cross-shore processes. The contribution of future sea-level-rise induced by climate change is usually obtained using the Bruun rule, which assumes that the shoreline retreat is equal to the change of sea-level divided by the slope of the upper shoreface. However, it remains unsure that this approach is appropriate to account for the impacts of future sea-level rise. This is due to the lack of relevant observations to validate the Bruun rule under the expected sea-level rise rates. To address this issue, this article estimates the coastal settings and period of time under which the use of the Bruun rule could be (invalidated, in the case of wave-exposed gently-sloping sandy beaches. Using the sedimentary budgets of Stive (2004 and probabilistic sea-level rise scenarios based on IPCC, we provide shoreline change projections that account for all uncertain hydrosedimentary processes affecting idealized coasts (impacts of sea-level rise, storms and other cross-shore and longshore processes. We evaluate the relative importance of each source of uncertainties in the sediment balance equation using a global sensitivity analysis. For scenario RCP 6.0 and 8.5 and in the absence of coastal defences, the model predicts a perceivable shift toward generalized beach erosion by the middle of the 21st century. In contrast, the model predictions are unlikely to differ from the current situation in case of scenario RCP 2.6. Finally, the contribution of sea-level rise and climate change scenarios to sandy shoreline change projections uncertainties increases with time during the 21st century. Our results have three primary implications for coastal settings similar to those provided described in Stive (2004 : first, the validation of the Bruun rule will not necessarily be

Limitations to the Dutch cannabis toleration policy: Assumptions underlying the reclassification of cannabis above 15% THC.

Science.gov (United States)

Van Laar, Margriet; Van Der Pol, Peggy; Niesink, Raymond

2016-08-01

The Netherlands has seen an increase in Δ9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) concentrations from approximately 8% in the 1990s up to 20% in 2004. Increased cannabis potency may lead to higher THC-exposure and cannabis related harm. The Dutch government officially condones the sale of cannabis from so called 'coffee shops', and the Opium Act distinguishes cannabis as a Schedule II drug with 'acceptable risk' from other drugs with 'unacceptable risk' (Schedule I). Even in 1976, however, cannabis potency was taken into account by distinguishing hemp oil as a Schedule I drug. In 2011, an advisory committee recommended tightening up legislation, leading to a 2013 bill proposing the reclassification of high potency cannabis products with a THC content of 15% or more as a Schedule I drug. The purpose of this measure was twofold: to reduce public health risks and to reduce illegal cultivation and export of cannabis by increasing punishment. This paper focuses on the public health aspects and describes the (explicit and implicit) assumptions underlying this '15% THC measure', as well as to what extent these are supported by scientific research. Based on scientific literature and other sources of information, we conclude that the 15% measure can provide in theory a slight health benefit for specific groups of cannabis users (i.e., frequent users preferring strong cannabis, purchasing from coffee shops, using 'steady quantities' and not changing their smoking behaviour), but certainly not for all cannabis users. These gains should be weighed against the investment in enforcement and the risk of unintended (adverse) effects. Given the many assumptions and uncertainty about the nature and extent of the expected buying and smoking behaviour changes, the measure is a political choice and based on thin evidence. Copyright © 2016 Springer. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quasi-experimental study designs series-paper 7: assessing the assumptions.

Science.gov (United States)

Bärnighausen, Till; Oldenburg, Catherine; Tugwell, Peter; Bommer, Christian; Ebert, Cara; Barreto, Mauricio; Djimeu, Eric; Haber, Noah; Waddington, Hugh; Rockers, Peter; Sianesi, Barbara; Bor, Jacob; Fink, Günther; Valentine, Jeffrey; Tanner, Jeffrey; Stanley, Tom; Sierra, Eduardo; Tchetgen, Eric Tchetgen; Atun, Rifat; Vollmer, Sebastian

2017-09-01

Quasi-experimental designs are gaining popularity in epidemiology and health systems research-in particular for the evaluation of health care practice, programs, and policy-because they allow strong causal inferences without randomized controlled experiments. We describe the concepts underlying five important quasi-experimental designs: Instrumental Variables, Regression Discontinuity, Interrupted Time Series, Fixed Effects, and Difference-in-Differences designs. We illustrate each of the designs with an example from health research. We then describe the assumptions required for each of the designs to ensure valid causal inference and discuss the tests available to examine the assumptions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Regression assumptions in clinical psychology research practice-a systematic review of common misconceptions.

Science.gov (United States)

Ernst, Anja F; Albers, Casper J

2017-01-01

Misconceptions about the assumptions behind the standard linear regression model are widespread and dangerous. These lead to using linear regression when inappropriate, and to employing alternative procedures with less statistical power when unnecessary. Our systematic literature review investigated employment and reporting of assumption checks in twelve clinical psychology journals. Findings indicate that normality of the variables themselves, rather than of the errors, was wrongfully held for a necessary assumption in 4% of papers that use regression. Furthermore, 92% of all papers using linear regression were unclear about their assumption checks, violating APA-recommendations. This paper appeals for a heightened awareness for and increased transparency in the reporting of statistical assumption checking.

Thermodynamic parameters for mixtures of quartz under shock wave loading in views of the equilibrium model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maevskii, K. K.; Kinelovskii, S. A.

2015-01-01

The numerical results of modeling of shock wave loading of mixtures with the SiO 2 component are presented. The TEC (thermodynamic equilibrium component) model is employed to describe the behavior of solid and porous multicomponent mixtures and alloys under shock wave loading. State equations of a Mie–Grüneisen type are used to describe the behavior of condensed phases, taking into account the temperature dependence of the Grüneisen coefficient, gas in pores is one of the components of the environment. The model is based on the assumption that all components of the mixture under shock-wave loading are in thermodynamic equilibrium. The calculation results are compared with the experimental data derived by various authors. The behavior of the mixture containing components with a phase transition under high dynamic loads is described

Interface Input/Output Automata: Splitting Assumptions from Guarantees

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Kim Guldstrand; Nyman, Ulrik; Wasowski, Andrzej

2006-01-01

's \\IOAs [11], relying on a context dependent notion of refinement based on relativized language inclusion. There are two main contributions of the work. First, we explicitly separate assumptions from guarantees, increasing the modeling power of the specification language and demonstrating an interesting...

On testing the missing at random assumption

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jaeger, Manfred

2006-01-01

Most approaches to learning from incomplete data are based on the assumption that unobserved values are missing at random (mar). While the mar assumption, as such, is not testable, it can become testable in the context of other distributional assumptions, e.g. the naive Bayes assumption...

Questionable assumptions hampered interpretation of a network meta-analysis of primary care depression treatments.

Science.gov (United States)

Linde, Klaus; Rücker, Gerta; Schneider, Antonius; Kriston, Levente

2016-03-01

We aimed to evaluate the underlying assumptions of a network meta-analysis investigating which depression treatment works best in primary care and to highlight challenges and pitfalls of interpretation under consideration of these assumptions. We reviewed 100 randomized trials investigating pharmacologic and psychological treatments for primary care patients with depression. Network meta-analysis was carried out within a frequentist framework using response to treatment as outcome measure. Transitivity was assessed by epidemiologic judgment based on theoretical and empirical investigation of the distribution of trial characteristics across comparisons. Homogeneity and consistency were investigated by decomposing the Q statistic. There were important clinical and statistically significant differences between "pure" drug trials comparing pharmacologic substances with each other or placebo (63 trials) and trials including a psychological treatment arm (37 trials). Overall network meta-analysis produced results well comparable with separate meta-analyses of drug trials and psychological trials. Although the homogeneity and consistency assumptions were mostly met, we considered the transitivity assumption unjustifiable. An exchange of experience between reviewers and, if possible, some guidance on how reviewers addressing important clinical questions can proceed in situations where important assumptions for valid network meta-analysis are not met would be desirable. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

On the Empirical Importance of the Conditional Skewness Assumption in Modelling the Relationship between Risk and Return

Science.gov (United States)

Pipień, M.

2008-09-01

We present the results of an application of Bayesian inference in testing the relation between risk and return on the financial instruments. On the basis of the Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model, proposed by Merton we built a general sampling distribution suitable in analysing this relationship. The most important feature of our assumptions is that the skewness of the conditional distribution of returns is used as an alternative source of relation between risk and return. This general specification relates to Skewed Generalized Autoregressive Conditionally Heteroscedastic-in-Mean model. In order to make conditional distribution of financial returns skewed we considered the unified approach based on the inverse probability integral transformation. In particular, we applied hidden truncation mechanism, inverse scale factors, order statistics concept, Beta and Bernstein distribution transformations and also a constructive method. Based on the daily excess returns on the Warsaw Stock Exchange Index we checked the empirical importance of the conditional skewness assumption on the relation between risk and return on the Warsaw Stock Market. We present posterior probabilities of all competing specifications as well as the posterior analysis of the positive sign of the tested relationship.

The metaphysics of D-CTCs: On the underlying assumptions of Deutsch's quantum solution to the paradoxes of time travel

Science.gov (United States)

Dunlap, Lucas

2016-11-01

I argue that Deutsch's model for the behavior of systems traveling around closed timelike curves (CTCs) relies implicitly on a substantive metaphysical assumption. Deutsch is employing a version of quantum theory with a significantly supplemented ontology of parallel existent worlds, which differ in kind from the many worlds of the Everett interpretation. Standard Everett does not support the existence of multiple identical copies of the world, which the D-CTC model requires. This has been obscured because he often refers to the branching structure of Everett as a "multiverse", and describes quantum interference by reference to parallel interacting definite worlds. But he admits that this is only an approximation to Everett. The D-CTC model, however, relies crucially on the existence of a multiverse of parallel interacting worlds. Since his model is supplemented by structures that go significantly beyond quantum theory, and play an ineliminable role in its predictions and explanations, it does not represent a quantum solution to the paradoxes of time travel.

Regression assumptions in clinical psychology research practice—a systematic review of common misconceptions

Science.gov (United States)

Ernst, Anja F.

2017-01-01

Misconceptions about the assumptions behind the standard linear regression model are widespread and dangerous. These lead to using linear regression when inappropriate, and to employing alternative procedures with less statistical power when unnecessary. Our systematic literature review investigated employment and reporting of assumption checks in twelve clinical psychology journals. Findings indicate that normality of the variables themselves, rather than of the errors, was wrongfully held for a necessary assumption in 4% of papers that use regression. Furthermore, 92% of all papers using linear regression were unclear about their assumption checks, violating APA-recommendations. This paper appeals for a heightened awareness for and increased transparency in the reporting of statistical assumption checking. PMID:28533971

Regression assumptions in clinical psychology research practice—a systematic review of common misconceptions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anja F. Ernst

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Misconceptions about the assumptions behind the standard linear regression model are widespread and dangerous. These lead to using linear regression when inappropriate, and to employing alternative procedures with less statistical power when unnecessary. Our systematic literature review investigated employment and reporting of assumption checks in twelve clinical psychology journals. Findings indicate that normality of the variables themselves, rather than of the errors, was wrongfully held for a necessary assumption in 4% of papers that use regression. Furthermore, 92% of all papers using linear regression were unclear about their assumption checks, violating APA-recommendations. This paper appeals for a heightened awareness for and increased transparency in the reporting of statistical assumption checking.

Bootstrapping realized volatility and realized beta under a local Gaussianity assumption

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hounyo, Ulrich

The main contribution of this paper is to propose a new bootstrap method for statistics based on high frequency returns. The new method exploits the local Gaussianity and the local constancy of volatility of high frequency returns, two assumptions that can simplify inference in the high frequency...... context, as recently explained by Mykland and Zhang (2009). Our main contributions are as follows. First, we show that the local Gaussian bootstrap is firstorder consistent when used to estimate the distributions of realized volatility and ealized betas. Second, we show that the local Gaussian bootstrap...... matches accurately the first four cumulants of realized volatility, implying that this method provides third-order refinements. This is in contrast with the wild bootstrap of Gonçalves and Meddahi (2009), which is only second-order correct. Third, we show that the local Gaussian bootstrap is able...

Discrete-State and Continuous Models of Recognition Memory: Testing Core Properties under Minimal Assumptions

Science.gov (United States)

Kellen, David; Klauer, Karl Christoph

2014-01-01

A classic discussion in the recognition-memory literature concerns the question of whether recognition judgments are better described by continuous or discrete processes. These two hypotheses are instantiated by the signal detection theory model (SDT) and the 2-high-threshold model, respectively. Their comparison has almost invariably relied on…

Selecting between-sample RNA-Seq normalization methods from the perspective of their assumptions.

Science.gov (United States)

Evans, Ciaran; Hardin, Johanna; Stoebel, Daniel M

2017-02-27

RNA-Seq is a widely used method for studying the behavior of genes under different biological conditions. An essential step in an RNA-Seq study is normalization, in which raw data are adjusted to account for factors that prevent direct comparison of expression measures. Errors in normalization can have a significant impact on downstream analysis, such as inflated false positives in differential expression analysis. An underemphasized feature of normalization is the assumptions on which the methods rely and how the validity of these assumptions can have a substantial impact on the performance of the methods. In this article, we explain how assumptions provide the link between raw RNA-Seq read counts and meaningful measures of gene expression. We examine normalization methods from the perspective of their assumptions, as an understanding of methodological assumptions is necessary for choosing methods appropriate for the data at hand. Furthermore, we discuss why normalization methods perform poorly when their assumptions are violated and how this causes problems in subsequent analysis. To analyze a biological experiment, researchers must select a normalization method with assumptions that are met and that produces a meaningful measure of expression for the given experiment. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Designing management strategies for carbon dioxide storage and utilization under uncertainty using inexact modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Yu; Fan, Jie; Xu, Ye; Sun, Wei; Chen, Dong

2017-06-01

Effective application of carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) systems could help to alleviate the influence of climate change by reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The research objective of this study is to develop an equilibrium chance-constrained programming model with bi-random variables (ECCP model) for supporting the CCUS management system under random circumstances. The major advantage of the ECCP model is that it tackles random variables as bi-random variables with a normal distribution, where the mean values follow a normal distribution. This could avoid irrational assumptions and oversimplifications in the process of parameter design and enrich the theory of stochastic optimization. The ECCP model is solved by an equilibrium change-constrained programming algorithm, which provides convenience for decision makers to rank the solution set using the natural order of real numbers. The ECCP model is applied to a CCUS management problem, and the solutions could be useful in helping managers to design and generate rational CO2-allocation patterns under complexities and uncertainties.

Comparison of joint modeling and landmarking for dynamic prediction under an illness-death model.

Science.gov (United States)

Suresh, Krithika; Taylor, Jeremy M G; Spratt, Daniel E; Daignault, Stephanie; Tsodikov, Alexander

2017-11-01

Dynamic prediction incorporates time-dependent marker information accrued during follow-up to improve personalized survival prediction probabilities. At any follow-up, or "landmark", time, the residual time distribution for an individual, conditional on their updated marker values, can be used to produce a dynamic prediction. To satisfy a consistency condition that links dynamic predictions at different time points, the residual time distribution must follow from a prediction function that models the joint distribution of the marker process and time to failure, such as a joint model. To circumvent the assumptions and computational burden associated with a joint model, approximate methods for dynamic prediction have been proposed. One such method is landmarking, which fits a Cox model at a sequence of landmark times, and thus is not a comprehensive probability model of the marker process and the event time. Considering an illness-death model, we derive the residual time distribution and demonstrate that the structure of the Cox model baseline hazard and covariate effects under the landmarking approach do not have simple form. We suggest some extensions of the landmark Cox model that should provide a better approximation. We compare the performance of the landmark models with joint models using simulation studies and cognitive aging data from the PAQUID study. We examine the predicted probabilities produced under both methods using data from a prostate cancer study, where metastatic clinical failure is a time-dependent covariate for predicting death following radiation therapy. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Graphical models for inference under outcome-dependent sampling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Didelez, V; Kreiner, S; Keiding, N

2010-01-01

a node for the sampling indicator, assumptions about sampling processes can be made explicit. We demonstrate how to read off such graphs whether consistent estimation of the association between exposure and outcome is possible. Moreover, we give sufficient graphical conditions for testing and estimating......We consider situations where data have been collected such that the sampling depends on the outcome of interest and possibly further covariates, as for instance in case-control studies. Graphical models represent assumptions about the conditional independencies among the variables. By including...

Sensitivity of TRIM projections to management, harvest, yield, and stocking adjustment assumptions.

Science.gov (United States)

Susan J. Alexander

1991-01-01

The Timber Resource Inventory Model (TRIM) was used to make several projections of forest industry timber supply for the Douglas-fir region. The sensitivity of these projections to assumptions about management and yields is discussed. A base run is compared to runs in which yields were altered, stocking adjustment was eliminated, harvest assumptions were changed, and...

The sufficiency assumption of the reasoned approach to action

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David Trafimow

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The reasoned action approach to understanding and predicting behavior includes the sufficiency assumption. Although variables not included in the theory may influence behavior, these variables work through the variables in the theory. Once the reasoned action variables are included in an analysis, the inclusion of other variables will not increase the variance accounted for in behavioral intentions or behavior. Reasoned action researchers are very concerned with testing if new variables account for variance (or how much traditional variables account for variance, to see whether they are important, in general or with respect to specific behaviors under investigation. But this approach tacitly assumes that accounting for variance is highly relevant to understanding the production of variance, which is what really is at issue. Based on the variance law, I question this assumption.

76 FR 81966 - Agency Information Collection Activities; Proposed Collection; Comments Requested; Assumption of...

Science.gov (United States)

2011-12-29

... Indian country is subject to State criminal jurisdiction under Public Law 280 (18 U.S.C. 1162(a)) to... Collection; Comments Requested; Assumption of Concurrent Federal Criminal Jurisdiction in Certain Areas of Indian Country ACTION: 60-Day notice of information collection under review. The Department of Justice...

Sensitivity Analysis Without Assumptions.

Science.gov (United States)

Ding, Peng; VanderWeele, Tyler J

2016-05-01

Unmeasured confounding may undermine the validity of causal inference with observational studies. Sensitivity analysis provides an attractive way to partially circumvent this issue by assessing the potential influence of unmeasured confounding on causal conclusions. However, previous sensitivity analysis approaches often make strong and untestable assumptions such as having an unmeasured confounder that is binary, or having no interaction between the effects of the exposure and the confounder on the outcome, or having only one unmeasured confounder. Without imposing any assumptions on the unmeasured confounder or confounders, we derive a bounding factor and a sharp inequality such that the sensitivity analysis parameters must satisfy the inequality if an unmeasured confounder is to explain away the observed effect estimate or reduce it to a particular level. Our approach is easy to implement and involves only two sensitivity parameters. Surprisingly, our bounding factor, which makes no simplifying assumptions, is no more conservative than a number of previous sensitivity analysis techniques that do make assumptions. Our new bounding factor implies not only the traditional Cornfield conditions that both the relative risk of the exposure on the confounder and that of the confounder on the outcome must satisfy but also a high threshold that the maximum of these relative risks must satisfy. Furthermore, this new bounding factor can be viewed as a measure of the strength of confounding between the exposure and the outcome induced by a confounder.

I Assumed You Knew: Teaching Assumptions as Co-Equal to Observations in Scientific Work

Science.gov (United States)

Horodyskyj, L.; Mead, C.; Anbar, A. D.

2016-12-01

Introductory science curricula typically begin with a lesson on the "nature of science". Usually this lesson is short, built with the assumption that students have picked up this information elsewhere and only a short review is necessary. However, when asked about the nature of science in our classes, student definitions were often confused, contradictory, or incomplete. A cursory review of how the nature of science is defined in a number of textbooks is similarly inconsistent and excessively loquacious. With such confusion both from the student and teacher perspective, it is no surprise that students walk away with significant misconceptions about the scientific endeavor, which they carry with them into public life. These misconceptions subsequently result in poor public policy and personal decisions on issues with scientific underpinnings. We will present a new way of teaching the nature of science at the introductory level that better represents what we actually do as scientists. Nature of science lessons often emphasize the importance of observations in scientific work. However, they rarely mention and often hide the importance of assumptions in interpreting those observations. Assumptions are co-equal to observations in building models, which are observation-assumption networks that can be used to make predictions about future observations. The confidence we place in these models depends on whether they are assumption-dominated (hypothesis) or observation-dominated (theory). By presenting and teaching science in this manner, we feel that students will better comprehend the scientific endeavor, since making observations and assumptions and building mental models is a natural human behavior. We will present a model for a science lab activity that can be taught using this approach.

Evaluating The Markov Assumption For Web Usage Mining

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jespersen, S.; Pedersen, Torben Bach; Thorhauge, J.

2003-01-01

) model~\\cite{borges99data}. These techniques typically rely on the \\textit{Markov assumption with history depth} $n$, i.e., it is assumed that the next requested page is only dependent on the last $n$ pages visited. This is not always valid, i.e. false browsing patterns may be discovered. However, to our...

Monitoring Assumptions in Assume-Guarantee Contracts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oleg Sokolsky

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Pre-deployment verification of software components with respect to behavioral specifications in the assume-guarantee form does not, in general, guarantee absence of errors at run time. This is because assumptions about the environment cannot be discharged until the environment is fixed. An intuitive approach is to complement pre-deployment verification of guarantees, up to the assumptions, with post-deployment monitoring of environment behavior to check that the assumptions are satisfied at run time. Such a monitor is typically implemented by instrumenting the application code of the component. An additional challenge for the monitoring step is that environment behaviors are typically obtained through an I/O library, which may alter the component's view of the input format. This transformation requires us to introduce a second pre-deployment verification step to ensure that alarms raised by the monitor would indeed correspond to violations of the environment assumptions. In this paper, we describe an approach for constructing monitors and verifying them against the component assumption. We also discuss limitations of instrumentation-based monitoring and potential ways to overcome it.

A novel modeling approach for job shop scheduling problem under uncertainty

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Behnam Beheshti Pur

2013-11-01

Full Text Available When aiming on improving efficiency and reducing cost in manufacturing environments, production scheduling can play an important role. Although a common workshop is full of uncertainties, when using mathematical programs researchers have mainly focused on deterministic problems. After briefly reviewing and discussing popular modeling approaches in the field of stochastic programming, this paper proposes a new approach based on utility theory for a certain range of problems and under some practical assumptions. Expected utility programming, as the proposed approach, will be compared with the other well-known methods and its meaningfulness and usefulness will be illustrated via a numerical examples and a real case.

Leakage-Resilient Circuits without Computational Assumptions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dziembowski, Stefan; Faust, Sebastian

2012-01-01

Physical cryptographic devices inadvertently leak information through numerous side-channels. Such leakage is exploited by so-called side-channel attacks, which often allow for a complete security breache. A recent trend in cryptography is to propose formal models to incorporate leakage...... on computational assumptions, our results are purely information-theoretic. In particular, we do not make use of public key encryption, which was required in all previous works...... into the model and to construct schemes that are provably secure within them. We design a general compiler that transforms any cryptographic scheme, e.g., a block-cipher, into a functionally equivalent scheme which is resilient to any continual leakage provided that the following three requirements are satisfied...

How Symmetrical Assumptions Advance Strategic Management Research

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Foss, Nicolai Juul; Hallberg, Hallberg

2014-01-01

We develop the case for symmetrical assumptions in strategic management theory. Assumptional symmetry obtains when assumptions made about certain actors and their interactions in one of the application domains of a theory are also made about this set of actors and their interactions in other...... application domains of the theory. We argue that assumptional symmetry leads to theoretical advancement by promoting the development of theory with greater falsifiability and stronger ontological grounding. Thus, strategic management theory may be advanced by systematically searching for asymmetrical...

Oil price assumptions in macroeconomic forecasts: should we follow future market expectations?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coimbra, C.; Esteves, P.S.

2004-01-01

In macroeconomic forecasting, in spite of its important role in price and activity developments, oil prices are usually taken as an exogenous variable, for which assumptions have to be made. This paper evaluates the forecasting performance of futures market prices against the other popular technical procedure, the carry-over assumption. The results suggest that there is almost no difference between opting for futures market prices or using the carry-over assumption for short-term forecasting horizons (up to 12 months), while, for longer-term horizons, they favour the use of futures market prices. However, as futures market prices reflect market expectations for world economic activity, futures oil prices should be adjusted whenever market expectations for world economic growth are different to the values underlying the macroeconomic scenarios, in order to fully ensure the internal consistency of those scenarios. (Author)

Measuring Productivity Change without Neoclassical Assumptions: A Conceptual Analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

B.M. Balk (Bert)

2008-01-01

textabstractThe measurement of productivity change (or difference) is usually based on models that make use of strong assumptions such as competitive behaviour and constant returns to scale. This survey discusses the basics of productivity measurement and shows that one can dispense with most if not

Climate Change: Implications for the Assumptions, Goals and Methods of Urban Environmental Planning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kristina Hill

2016-12-01

-based quantitative models of regional system behavior that may soon be used to determine acceptable land uses. Finally, the philosophical assumptions that underlie urban environmental planning are changing to address new epistemological, ontological and ethical assumptions that support new methods and goals. The inability to use the past as a guide to the future, new prioritizations of values for adaptation, and renewed efforts to focus on intergenerational justice are provided as examples. In order to represent a genuine paradigm shift, this review argues that changes must begin to be evident across the underlying assumptions, conceptual frameworks, and methods of urban environmental planning, and be attributable to the same root cause. The examples presented here represent the early stages of a change in the overall paradigm of the discipline.

Academic Achievement and Behavioral Health among Asian American and African American Adolescents: Testing the Model Minority and Inferior Minority Assumptions

Science.gov (United States)

Whaley, Arthur L.; Noel, La Tonya

2013-01-01

The present study tested the model minority and inferior minority assumptions by examining the relationship between academic performance and measures of behavioral health in a subsample of 3,008 (22%) participants in a nationally representative, multicultural sample of 13,601 students in the 2001 Youth Risk Behavioral Survey, comparing Asian…

Marking and Moderation in the UK: False Assumptions and Wasted Resources

Science.gov (United States)

Bloxham, Sue

2009-01-01

This article challenges a number of assumptions underlying marking of student work in British universities. It argues that, in developing rigorous moderation procedures, we have created a huge burden for markers which adds little to accuracy and reliability but creates additional work for staff, constrains assessment choices and slows down…

Reward optimization in the primate brain: a probabilistic model of decision making under uncertainty.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yanping Huang

Full Text Available A key problem in neuroscience is understanding how the brain makes decisions under uncertainty. Important insights have been gained using tasks such as the random dots motion discrimination task in which the subject makes decisions based on noisy stimuli. A descriptive model known as the drift diffusion model has previously been used to explain psychometric and reaction time data from such tasks but to fully explain the data, one is forced to make ad-hoc assumptions such as a time-dependent collapsing decision boundary. We show that such assumptions are unnecessary when decision making is viewed within the framework of partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs. We propose an alternative model for decision making based on POMDPs. We show that the motion discrimination task reduces to the problems of (1 computing beliefs (posterior distributions over the unknown direction and motion strength from noisy observations in a bayesian manner, and (2 selecting actions based on these beliefs to maximize the expected sum of future rewards. The resulting optimal policy (belief-to-action mapping is shown to be equivalent to a collapsing decision threshold that governs the switch from evidence accumulation to a discrimination decision. We show that the model accounts for both accuracy and reaction time as a function of stimulus strength as well as different speed-accuracy conditions in the random dots task.

Wrong assumptions in the financial crisis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Aalbers, M.B.

2009-01-01

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to show how some of the assumptions about the current financial crisis are wrong because they misunderstand what takes place in the mortgage market. Design/methodology/approach - The paper discusses four wrong assumptions: one related to regulation, one to

Utility-free heuristic models of two-option choice can mimic predictions of utility-stage models under many conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Piantadosi, Steven T.; Hayden, Benjamin Y.

2015-01-01

Economists often model choices as if decision-makers assign each option a scalar value variable, known as utility, and then select the option with the highest utility. It remains unclear whether as-if utility models describe real mental and neural steps in choice. Although choices alone cannot prove the existence of a utility stage, utility transformations are often taken to provide the most parsimonious or psychologically plausible explanation for choice data. Here, we show that it is possible to mathematically transform a large set of common utility-stage two-option choice models (specifically ones in which dimensions are can be decomposed into additive functions) into a heuristic model (specifically, a dimensional prioritization heuristic) that has no utility computation stage. We then show that under a range of plausible assumptions, both classes of model predict similar neural responses. These results highlight the difficulties in using neuroeconomic data to infer the existence of a value stage in choice. PMID:25914613

Utility-free heuristic models of two-option choice can mimic predictions of utility-stage models under many conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Steven T Piantadosi

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Economists often model choices as if decision-makers assign each option a scalar value variable, known as utility, and then select the option with the highest utility. It remains unclear whether as-if utility models describe real mental and neural steps in choice. Although choices alone cannot prove the existence of a utility stage in choice, utility transformations are often taken to provide the most parsimonious or psychologically plausible explanation for choice data. Here, we show that it is possible to mathematically transform a large set of common utility-stage two-option choice models (specifically ones in which dimensions are linearly separable into a psychologically plausible heuristic model (specifically, a dimensional prioritization heuristic that has no utility computation stage. We then show that under a range of plausible assumptions, both classes of model predict similar neural responses. These results highlight the difficulties in using neuroeconomic data to infer the existence of a value stage in choice.

Life Insurance and Annuity Demand under Hyperbolic Discounting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Siqi Tang

2018-04-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we analyse and construct a lifetime utility maximisation model with hyperbolic discounting. Within the model, a number of assumptions are made: complete markets, actuarially fair life insurance/annuity is available, and investors have time-dependent preferences. Time dependent preferences are in contrast to the usual case of constant preferences (exponential discounting. We find: (1 investors (realistically demand more life insurance after retirement (in contrast to the standard model, which showed strong demand for life annuities, and annuities are rarely purchased; (2 optimal consumption paths exhibit a humped shape (which is usually only found in incomplete markets under the assumptions of the standard model.

A Memory-Based Model of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder: Evaluating Basic Assumptions Underlying the PTSD Diagnosis

Science.gov (United States)

Rubin, David C.; Berntsen, Dorthe; Bohni, Malene Klindt

2008-01-01

In the mnemonic model of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), the current memory of a negative event, not the event itself, determines symptoms. The model is an alternative to the current event-based etiology of PTSD represented in the "Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders" (4th ed., text rev.; American Psychiatric Association,…

A Note on the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing under Model Uncertainty

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Erhan Bayraktar

2014-10-01

Full Text Available We show that the recent results on the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing and the super-hedging theorem in the context of model uncertainty can be extended to the case in which the options available for static hedging (hedging options are quoted with bid-ask spreads. In this set-up, we need to work with the notion of robust no-arbitrage which turns out to be equivalent to no-arbitrage under the additional assumption that hedging options with non-zero spread are non-redundant. A key result is the closedness of the set of attainable claims, which requires a new proof in our setting.

PFP issues/assumptions development and management planning guide

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

SINCLAIR, J.C.

1999-01-01

The PFP Issues/Assumptions Development and Management Planning Guide presents the strategy and process used for the identification, allocation, and maintenance of an Issues/Assumptions Management List for the Plutonium Finishing Plant (PFP) integrated project baseline. Revisions to this document will include, as attachments, the most recent version of the Issues/Assumptions Management List, both open and current issues/assumptions (Appendix A), and closed or historical issues/assumptions (Appendix B). This document is intended be a Project-owned management tool. As such, this document will periodically require revisions resulting from improvements of the information, processes, and techniques as now described. Revisions that suggest improved processes will only require PFP management approval

Sensitivity of Rooftop PV Projections in the SunShot Vision Study to Market Assumptions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Drury, E.; Denholm, P.; Margolis, R.

2013-01-01

The SunShot Vision Study explored the potential growth of solar markets if solar prices decreased by about 75% from 2010 to 2020. The SolarDS model was used to simulate rooftop PV demand for this study, based on several PV market assumptions--future electricity rates, customer access to financing, and others--in addition to the SunShot PV price projections. This paper finds that modeled PV demand is highly sensitive to several non-price market assumptions, particularly PV financing parameters.

The zero-sum assumption in neutral biodiversity theory

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Etienne, R.S.; Alonso, D.; McKane, A.J.

2007-01-01

The neutral theory of biodiversity as put forward by Hubbell in his 2001 monograph has received much criticism for its unrealistic simplifying assumptions. These are the assumptions of functional equivalence among different species (neutrality), the assumption of point mutation speciation, and the

Assumptions for the Annual Energy Outlook 1992

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-01-01

This report serves a auxiliary document to the Energy Information Administration (EIA) publication Annual Energy Outlook 1992 (AEO) (DOE/EIA-0383(92)), released in January 1992. The AEO forecasts were developed for five alternative cases and consist of energy supply, consumption, and price projections by major fuel and end-use sector, which are published at a national level of aggregation. The purpose of this report is to present important quantitative assumptions, including world oil prices and macroeconomic growth, underlying the AEO forecasts. The report has been prepared in response to external requests, as well as analyst requirements for background information on the AEO and studies based on the AEO forecasts

Managerial and Organizational Assumptions in the CMM's

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rose, Jeremy; Aaen, Ivan; Nielsen, Peter Axel

2008-01-01

Thinking about improving the management of software development in software firms is dominated by one approach: the capability maturity model devised and administered at the Software Engineering Institute at Carnegie Mellon University. Though CMM, and its replacement CMMI are widely known and used...... thinking about large production and manufacturing organisations (particularly in America) in the late industrial age. Many of the difficulties reported with CMMI can be attributed basing practice on these assumptions in organisations which have different cultures and management traditions, perhaps...

The incompressibility assumption in computational simulations of nasal airflow.

Science.gov (United States)

Cal, Ismael R; Cercos-Pita, Jose Luis; Duque, Daniel

2017-06-01

Most of the computational works on nasal airflow up to date have assumed incompressibility, given the low Mach number of these flows. However, for high temperature gradients, the incompressibility assumption could lead to a loss of accuracy, due to the temperature dependence of air density and viscosity. In this article we aim to shed some light on the influence of this assumption in a model of calm breathing in an Asian nasal cavity, by solving the fluid flow equations in compressible and incompressible formulation for different ambient air temperatures using the OpenFOAM package. At low flow rates and warm climatological conditions, similar results were obtained from both approaches, showing that density variations need not be taken into account to obtain a good prediction of all flow features, at least for usual breathing conditions. This agrees with most of the simulations previously reported, at least as far as the incompressibility assumption is concerned. However, parameters like nasal resistance and wall shear stress distribution differ for air temperatures below [Formula: see text]C approximately. Therefore, density variations should be considered for simulations at such low temperatures.

Technical note: Evaluation of the simultaneous measurements of mesospheric OH, HO2, and O3 under a photochemical equilibrium assumption - a statistical approach

Science.gov (United States)

Kulikov, Mikhail Y.; Nechaev, Anton A.; Belikovich, Mikhail V.; Ermakova, Tatiana S.; Feigin, Alexander M.

2018-05-01

This Technical Note presents a statistical approach to evaluating simultaneous measurements of several atmospheric components under the assumption of photochemical equilibrium. We consider simultaneous measurements of OH, HO2, and O3 at the altitudes of the mesosphere as a specific example and their daytime photochemical equilibrium as an evaluating relationship. A simplified algebraic equation relating local concentrations of these components in the 50-100 km altitude range has been derived. The parameters of the equation are temperature, neutral density, local zenith angle, and the rates of eight reactions. We have performed a one-year simulation of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere using a 3-D chemical-transport model. The simulation shows that the discrepancy between the calculated evolution of the components and the equilibrium value given by the equation does not exceed 3-4 % in the full range of altitudes independent of season or latitude. We have developed a statistical Bayesian evaluation technique for simultaneous measurements of OH, HO2, and O3 based on the equilibrium equation taking into account the measurement error. The first results of the application of the technique to MLS/Aura data (Microwave Limb Sounder) are presented in this Technical Note. It has been found that the satellite data of the HO2 distribution regularly demonstrate lower altitudes of this component's mesospheric maximum. This has also been confirmed by model HO2 distributions and comparison with offline retrieval of HO2 from the daily zonal means MLS radiance.

A statistical test of the stability assumption inherent in empirical estimates of economic depreciation.

Science.gov (United States)

Shriver, K A

1986-01-01

Realistic estimates of economic depreciation are required for analyses of tax policy, economic growth and production, and national income and wealth. THe purpose of this paper is to examine the stability assumption underlying the econometric derivation of empirical estimates of economic depreciation for industrial machinery and and equipment. The results suggest that a reasonable stability of economic depreciation rates of decline may exist over time. Thus, the assumption of a constant rate of economic depreciation may be a reasonable approximation for further empirical economic analyses.

Philosophy of Technology Assumptions in Educational Technology Leadership

Science.gov (United States)

Webster, Mark David

2017-01-01

A qualitative study using grounded theory methods was conducted to (a) examine what philosophy of technology assumptions are present in the thinking of K-12 technology leaders, (b) investigate how the assumptions may influence technology decision making, and (c) explore whether technological determinist assumptions are present. Subjects involved…

Change in Soil Porosity under Load

Science.gov (United States)

Dyba, V. P.; Skibin, E. G.

2017-11-01

The theoretical basis for the process of soil compaction under various loading paths is considered in the article, the theoretical assumptions are compared with the results of the tests of clay soil on a stabilometer. The variant of the critical state model of the sealing plastic-rigid environment is also considered the strength characteristics of which depend on the porosity coefficient. The loading surface is determined by the results of compression and stabilometrical tests. In order to clarify the results of this task, it is necessary to carry out stabilometric tests under conditions of simple loading, i.e. where the vertical pressure would be proportional to the compression pressure σ3 = kσ1. Within the study the attempts were made to confirm the model given in the beginning of the article by laboratory tests. After the analysis of the results, the provided theoretical assumptions were confirmed.

A Risk-Free Protection Index Model for Portfolio Selection with Entropy Constraint under an Uncertainty Framework

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jianwei Gao

2017-02-01

Full Text Available This paper aims to develop a risk-free protection index model for portfolio selection based on the uncertain theory. First, the returns of risk assets are assumed as uncertain variables and subject to reputable experts’ evaluations. Second, under this assumption, combining with the risk-free interest rate we define a risk-free protection index (RFPI, which can measure the protection degree when the loss of risk assets happens. Third, note that the proportion entropy serves as a complementary means to reduce the risk by the preset diversification requirement. We put forward a risk-free protection index model with an entropy constraint under an uncertainty framework by applying the RFPI, Huang’s risk index model (RIM, and mean-variance-entropy model (MVEM. Furthermore, to solve our portfolio model, an algorithm is given to estimate the uncertain expected return and standard deviation of different risk assets by applying the Delphi method. Finally, an example is provided to show that the risk-free protection index model performs better than the traditional MVEM and RIM.

The microeconomics of mineral extraction under capacity constraints

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cairns, R.D. [McGill University, Montreal, PQ (Canada). Dept. of Economics

1998-09-01

The mineral investment decision under certainty is discussed in the context of broad microeconomic features of the industry, the central one being that production is constrained by capacity. The assumptions of the economic literature on natural resources are evaluated in the context of these features and the assumptions that permit the modeling of such facts are examined. Several characteristics of extraction and equilibrium, and some implications of uncertainty, are considered. 38 refs., 1 app.

Data-driven smooth tests of the proportional hazards assumption

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Kraus, David

2007-01-01

Roč. 13, č. 1 (2007), s. 1-16 ISSN 1380-7870 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR(CZ) IAA101120604; GA ČR(CZ) GD201/05/H007 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Cox model * Neyman's smooth test * proportional hazards assumption * Schwarz's selection rule Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.491, year: 2007

PREDICTION OF BLOOD PATTERN IN S-SHAPED MODEL OF ARTERY UNDER NORMAL BLOOD PRESSURE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohd Azrul Hisham Mohd Adib

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Athletes are susceptible to a wide variety of traumatic and non-traumatic vascular injuries to the lower limb. This paper aims to predict the three-dimensional flow pattern of blood through an S-shaped geometrical artery model. This model has created by using Fluid Structure Interaction (FSI software. The modeling of the geometrical S-shaped artery is suitable for understanding the pattern of blood flow under constant normal blood pressure. In this study, a numerical method is used that works on the assumption that the blood is incompressible and Newtonian; thus, a laminar type of flow can be considered. The authors have compared the results with a previous study with FSI validation simulation. The validation and verification of the simulation studies is performed by comparing the maximum velocity at t = 0.4 s, because at this time, the blood accelerates rapidly. In addition, the resulting blood flow at various times, under the same boundary conditions in the S-shaped geometrical artery model, is presented. The graph shows that velocity increases linearly with time. Thus, it can be concluded that the flow of blood increases with respect to the pressure inside the body.

Are implicit policy assumptions about climate adaptation trying to push drinking water utilities down an impossible path?

Science.gov (United States)

Klasic, M. R.; Ekstrom, J.; Bedsworth, L. W.; Baker, Z.

2017-12-01

Extreme events such as wildfires, droughts, and flooding are projected to be more frequent and intense under a changing climate, increasing challenges to water quality management. To protect and improve public health, drinking water utility managers need to understand and plan for climate change and extreme events. This three year study began with the assumption that improved climate projections were key to advancing climate adaptation at the local level. Through a survey (N = 259) and interviews (N = 61) with California drinking water utility managers during the peak of the state's recent drought, we found that scientific information was not a key barrier hindering adaptation. Instead, we found that managers fell into three distinct mental models based on their interaction with, perceptions, and attitudes, towards scientific information and the future of water in their system. One of the mental models, "modeled futures", is a concept most in line with how climate change scientists talk about the use of information. Drinking water utilities falling into the "modeled future" category tend to be larger systems that have adequate capacity to both receive and use scientific information. Medium and smaller utilities in California, that more often serve rural low income communities, tend to fall into the other two mental models, "whose future" and "no future". We show evidence that there is an implicit presumption that all drinking water utility managers should strive to align with "modeled future" mental models. This presentation questions this assumption as it leaves behind many utilities that need to adapt to climate change (several thousand in California alone), but may not have the technical, financial, managerial, or other capacity to do so. It is clear that no single solution or pathway to drought resilience exists for water utilities, but we argue that a more explicit understanding and definition of what it means to be a resilient drinking water utility is

Projecting hydropower production under future climates: a review of modelling challenges and open questions

Science.gov (United States)

Schaefli, Bettina

2015-04-01

Hydropower is a pillar for renewable electricity production in almost all world regions. The planning horizon of major hydropower infrastructure projects stretches over several decades and consideration of evolving climatic conditions plays an ever increasing role. This review of model-based climate change impact assessments provides a synthesis of the wealth of underlying modelling assumptions, highlights the importance of local factors and attempts to identify the most urgent open questions. Based on existing case studies, it critically discusses whether current hydro-climatic modelling frameworks are likely to provide narrow enough water scenario ranges to be included into economic analyses for end-to-end climate change impact assessments including electricity market models. This will be completed with an overview of not or indirectly climate-related boundary conditions, such as economic growth, legal constraints, national subsidy frameworks or growing competition for water, which might locally largely outweigh any climate change impacts.

An EPQ Inventory Model with Allowable Shortages for Deteriorating Items under Trade Credit Policy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zohreh Molamohamadi

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This paper attempts to obtain the replenishment policy of a manufacturer under EPQ inventory model with backorder. It is assumed here that the manufacturer delays paying for the received goods from the supplier and the items start deteriorating as soon as they are being produced. Based on these assumptions, the manufacturer’s inventory model is formulated, and cuckoo search algorithm is applied then to find the replenishment time, order quantity, and selling price with the objective of maximizing the manufacturer’s total net profit. Besides, the traditional inventory system is shown as a special case of the proposed model in this paper, and numerical examples are given to demonstrate better performance of trade credit. These examples are also used to compare the results of cuckoo search algorithm with genetic algorithm and investigate the effects of the model parameters on its variables and net profit.

The effects of behavioral and structural assumptions in artificial stock market

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Xinghua; Gregor, Shirley; Yang, Jianmei

2008-04-01

Recent literature has developed the conjecture that important statistical features of stock price series, such as the fat tails phenomenon, may depend mainly on the market microstructure. This conjecture motivated us to investigate the roles of both the market microstructure and agent behavior with respect to high-frequency returns and daily returns. We developed two simple models to investigate this issue. The first one is a stochastic model with a clearing house microstructure and a population of zero-intelligence agents. The second one has more behavioral assumptions based on Minority Game and also has a clearing house microstructure. With the first model we found that a characteristic of the clearing house microstructure, namely the clearing frequency, can explain fat tail, excess volatility and autocorrelation phenomena of high-frequency returns. However, this feature does not cause the same phenomena in daily returns. So the Stylized Facts of daily returns depend mainly on the agents’ behavior. With the second model we investigated the effects of behavioral assumptions on daily returns. Our study implicates that the aspects which are responsible for generating the stylized facts of high-frequency returns and daily returns are different.

Polarized BRDF for coatings based on three-component assumption

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Hong; Zhu, Jingping; Wang, Kai; Xu, Rong

2017-02-01

A pBRDF(polarized bidirectional reflection distribution function) model for coatings is given based on three-component reflection assumption in order to improve the polarized scattering simulation capability for space objects. In this model, the specular reflection is given based on microfacet theory, the multiple reflection and volume scattering are given separately according to experimental results. The polarization of specular reflection is considered from Fresnel's law, and both multiple reflection and volume scattering are assumed depolarized. Simulation and measurement results of two satellite coating samples SR107 and S781 are given to validate that the pBRDF modeling accuracy can be significantly improved by the three-component model given in this paper.

Testing the rationality assumption using a design difference in the TV game show 'Jeopardy'

OpenAIRE

Sjögren Lindquist, Gabriella; Säve-Söderbergh, Jenny

2006-01-01

Abstract This paper empirically investigates the rationality assumption commonly applied in economic modeling by exploiting a design difference in the game-show Jeopardy between the US and Sweden. In particular we address the assumption of individuals’ capabilities to process complex mathematical problems to find optimal strategies. The vital difference is that US contestants are given explicit information before they act, while Swedish contestants individually need to calculate the same info...

Computational studies of global nuclear energy development under the assumption of the world's heterogeneous development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Egorov, A.F.; Korobejnikov, V.V.; Poplavskaya, E.V.; Fesenko, G.A.

2013-01-01

Authors study the mathematical model of Global nuclear energy development until the end of this century. For comparative scenarios analysis of transition to sustainable nuclear energy systems, the models of heterogeneous world with an allowance for specific national development are under investigation [ru

A narrow-band k-distribution model with single mixture gas assumption for radiative flows

Science.gov (United States)

Jo, Sung Min; Kim, Jae Won; Kwon, Oh Joon

2018-06-01

In the present study, the narrow-band k-distribution (NBK) model parameters for mixtures of H2O, CO2, and CO are proposed by utilizing the line-by-line (LBL) calculations with a single mixture gas assumption. For the application of the NBK model to radiative flows, a radiative transfer equation (RTE) solver based on a finite-volume method on unstructured meshes was developed. The NBK model and the RTE solver were verified by solving two benchmark problems including the spectral radiance distribution emitted from one-dimensional slabs and the radiative heat transfer in a truncated conical enclosure. It was shown that the results are accurate and physically reliable by comparing with available data. To examine the applicability of the methods to realistic multi-dimensional problems in non-isothermal and non-homogeneous conditions, radiation in an axisymmetric combustion chamber was analyzed, and then the infrared signature emitted from an aircraft exhaust plume was predicted. For modeling the plume flow involving radiative cooling, a flow-radiation coupled procedure was devised in a loosely coupled manner by adopting a Navier-Stokes flow solver based on unstructured meshes. It was shown that the predicted radiative cooling for the combustion chamber is physically more accurate than other predictions, and is as accurate as that by the LBL calculations. It was found that the infrared signature of aircraft exhaust plume can also be obtained accurately, equivalent to the LBL calculations, by using the present narrow-band approach with a much improved numerical efficiency.

The biosphere at Forsmark. Data, assumptions and models used in the SR-Can assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Karlsson, Sara; Kautsky, Ulrik; Loefgren, Anders; Soederbaeck, Bjoern

2006-10-01

This report summarises the method adopted for safety assessment following a radionuclide release into the biosphere. The approach utilises the information about the site as far as possible and presents a way of calculating risk to humans. The parameters are topography, where there is good understanding of the present conditions and the development over time is fairly predictable. The topography affects surface hydrology, sedimentation, size of drainage areas and the characteristics of ecosystems. Other parameters are human nutritional intake, which is assumed to be constant over time, and primary production (photosynthesis), which also is a fairly constant parameter over time. The Landscape Dose Factor approach (LDF) gives an integrated measure for the site and also resolves the issues relating to the size of the group with highest exposure. If this approach is widely accepted as method, still some improvements and refinement are necessary, e.g. collecting missing site data, reanalysing site data, reviewing radionuclide specific data, reformulating ecosystem models and evaluating the results with further sensitivity analysis. The report presents descriptions and estimates not presented elsewhere, as well as summaries of important steps in the biosphere modelling that are presented in more detail in separate reports. The intention is to give the reader a coherent description of the steps taken to calculate doses to biota and humans, including a description of the data used, the rationale for a number of assumptions made during parameterisation, and of how the landscape context is applied in the modelling, and also to present the models used and the results obtained

The biosphere at Forsmark. Data, assumptions and models used in the SR-Can assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Karlsson, Sara; Kautsky, Ulrik; Loefgren, Anders; Soederbaeck, Bjoern [eds.

2006-10-15

This report summarises the method adopted for safety assessment following a radionuclide release into the biosphere. The approach utilises the information about the site as far as possible and presents a way of calculating risk to humans. The parameters are topography, where there is good understanding of the present conditions and the development over time is fairly predictable. The topography affects surface hydrology, sedimentation, size of drainage areas and the characteristics of ecosystems. Other parameters are human nutritional intake, which is assumed to be constant over time, and primary production (photosynthesis), which also is a fairly constant parameter over time. The Landscape Dose Factor approach (LDF) gives an integrated measure for the site and also resolves the issues relating to the size of the group with highest exposure. If this approach is widely accepted as method, still some improvements and refinement are necessary, e.g. collecting missing site data, reanalysing site data, reviewing radionuclide specific data, reformulating ecosystem models and evaluating the results with further sensitivity analysis. The report presents descriptions and estimates not presented elsewhere, as well as summaries of important steps in the biosphere modelling that are presented in more detail in separate reports. The intention is to give the reader a coherent description of the steps taken to calculate doses to biota and humans, including a description of the data used, the rationale for a number of assumptions made during parameterisation, and of how the landscape context is applied in the modelling, and also to present the models used and the results obtained.

Distributed automata in an assumption-commitment framework

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

We propose a class of finite state systems of synchronizing distributed processes, where processes make assumptions at local states about the state of other processes in the system. This constrains the global states of the system to those where assumptions made by a process about another are compatible with the ...

HYPROLOG: A New Logic Programming Language with Assumptions and Abduction

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christiansen, Henning; Dahl, Veronica

2005-01-01

We present HYPROLOG, a novel integration of Prolog with assumptions and abduction which is implemented in and partly borrows syntax from Constraint Handling Rules (CHR) for integrity constraints. Assumptions are a mechanism inspired by linear logic and taken over from Assumption Grammars. The lan......We present HYPROLOG, a novel integration of Prolog with assumptions and abduction which is implemented in and partly borrows syntax from Constraint Handling Rules (CHR) for integrity constraints. Assumptions are a mechanism inspired by linear logic and taken over from Assumption Grammars....... The language shows a novel flexibility in the interaction between the different paradigms, including all additional built-in predicates and constraints solvers that may be available. Assumptions and abduction are especially useful for language processing, and we can show how HYPROLOG works seamlessly together...

Stop-loss premiums under dependence

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Albers, Willem/Wim

1999-01-01

Stop-loss premiums are typically calculated under the assumption that the insured lives in the underlying portfolio are independent. Here we study the effects of small departures from this assumption. Using Edgeworth expansions, it is made transparent which configurations of dependence parameters

Violation of the Sphericity Assumption and Its Effect on Type-I Error Rates in Repeated Measures ANOVA and Multi-Level Linear Models (MLM).

Science.gov (United States)

Haverkamp, Nicolas; Beauducel, André

2017-01-01

We investigated the effects of violations of the sphericity assumption on Type I error rates for different methodical approaches of repeated measures analysis using a simulation approach. In contrast to previous simulation studies on this topic, up to nine measurement occasions were considered. Effects of the level of inter-correlations between measurement occasions on Type I error rates were considered for the first time. Two populations with non-violation of the sphericity assumption, one with uncorrelated measurement occasions and one with moderately correlated measurement occasions, were generated. One population with violation of the sphericity assumption combines uncorrelated with highly correlated measurement occasions. A second population with violation of the sphericity assumption combines moderately correlated and highly correlated measurement occasions. From these four populations without any between-group effect or within-subject effect 5,000 random samples were drawn. Finally, the mean Type I error rates for Multilevel linear models (MLM) with an unstructured covariance matrix (MLM-UN), MLM with compound-symmetry (MLM-CS) and for repeated measures analysis of variance (rANOVA) models (without correction, with Greenhouse-Geisser-correction, and Huynh-Feldt-correction) were computed. To examine the effect of both the sample size and the number of measurement occasions, sample sizes of n = 20, 40, 60, 80, and 100 were considered as well as measurement occasions of m = 3, 6, and 9. With respect to rANOVA, the results plead for a use of rANOVA with Huynh-Feldt-correction, especially when the sphericity assumption is violated, the sample size is rather small and the number of measurement occasions is large. For MLM-UN, the results illustrate a massive progressive bias for small sample sizes ( n = 20) and m = 6 or more measurement occasions. This effect could not be found in previous simulation studies with a smaller number of measurement occasions. The

Modeling and simulation of axisymmetric coating growth on nanofibers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moore, K.; Clemons, C. B.; Kreider, K. L.; Young, G. W.

2007-01-01

This work is a modeling and simulation extension of an integrated experimental/modeling investigation of a procedure to coat nanofibers and core-clad nanostructures with thin film materials using plasma enhanced physical vapor deposition. In the experimental effort, electrospun polymer nanofibers are coated with metallic materials under different operating conditions to observe changes in the coating morphology. The modeling effort focuses on linking simple models at the reactor level, nanofiber level, and atomic level to form a comprehensive model. The comprehensive model leads to the definition of an evolution equation for the coating free surface. This equation was previously derived and solved under a single-valued assumption in a polar geometry to determine the coating morphology as a function of operating conditions. The present work considers the axisymmetric geometry and solves the evolution equation without the single-valued assumption and under less restrictive assumptions on the concentration field than the previous work

Two-fluid model for locomotion under self-confinement

Science.gov (United States)

Reigh, Shang Yik; Lauga, Eric

2017-09-01

The bacterium Helicobacter pylori causes ulcers in the stomach of humans by invading mucus layers protecting epithelial cells. It does so by chemically changing the rheological properties of the mucus from a high-viscosity gel to a low-viscosity solution in which it may self-propel. We develop a two-fluid model for this process of swimming under self-generated confinement. We solve exactly for the flow and the locomotion speed of a spherical swimmer located in a spherically symmetric system of two Newtonian fluids whose boundary moves with the swimmer. We also treat separately the special case of an immobile outer fluid. In all cases, we characterize the flow fields, their spatial decay, and the impact of both the viscosity ratio and the degree of confinement on the locomotion speed of the model swimmer. The spatial decay of the flow retains the same power-law decay as for locomotion in a single fluid but with a decreased magnitude. Independent of the assumption chosen to characterize the impact of confinement on the actuation applied by the swimmer, its locomotion speed always decreases with an increase in the degree of confinement. Our modeling results suggest that a low-viscosity region of at least six times the effective swimmer size is required to lead to swimming with speeds similar to locomotion in an infinite fluid, corresponding to a region of size above ≈25 μ m for Helicobacter pylori.

DISPLACE: a dynamic, individual-based model for spatial fishing planning and effort displacement: Integrating underlying fish population models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bastardie, Francois; Nielsen, J. Rasmus; Miethe, Tanja

or to the alteration of individual fishing patterns. We demonstrate that integrating the spatial activity of vessels and local fish stock abundance dynamics allow for interactions and more realistic predictions of fishermen behaviour, revenues and stock abundance......We previously developed a spatially explicit, individual-based model (IBM) evaluating the bio-economic efficiency of fishing vessel movements between regions according to the catching and targeting of different species based on the most recent high resolution spatial fishery data. The main purpose...... was to test the effects of alternative fishing effort allocation scenarios related to fuel consumption, energy efficiency (value per litre of fuel), sustainable fish stock harvesting, and profitability of the fisheries. The assumption here was constant underlying resource availability. Now, an advanced...

ψ -ontology result without the Cartesian product assumption

Science.gov (United States)

Myrvold, Wayne C.

2018-05-01

We introduce a weakening of the preparation independence postulate of Pusey et al. [Nat. Phys. 8, 475 (2012), 10.1038/nphys2309] that does not presuppose that the space of ontic states resulting from a product-state preparation can be represented by the Cartesian product of subsystem state spaces. On the basis of this weakened assumption, it is shown that, in any model that reproduces the quantum probabilities, any pair of pure quantum states |ψ >,|ϕ > with ≤1 /√{2 } must be ontologically distinct.

Taking a DSGE Model to the Data Meaningfully

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Juselius, Katarina; Franchi, Massimo

2007-01-01

All economists say that they want to take their models to the data. But with incomplete and highly imperfect data, doing so is difficult and requires carefully matching the assumptions of the model with the statistical properties of the data. The cointegrated VAR (CVAR) offers a way of doing so....... In this paper we outline a method for translating the assumptions underlying a DSGE model into a set of testable assumptions on a cointegrated VAR model and illustrate the ideas with the RBC model in Ireland (2004). Accounting for unit roots (near unit roots) in the model is shown to provide a powerful...

A test of the hierarchical model of litter decomposition

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bradford, Mark A.; Veen, G. F.; Bonis, Anne

2017-01-01

Our basic understanding of plant litter decomposition informs the assumptions underlying widely applied soil biogeochemical models, including those embedded in Earth system models. Confidence in projected carbon cycle-climate feedbacks therefore depends on accurate knowledge about the controls...... regulating the rate at which plant biomass is decomposed into products such as CO2. Here we test underlying assumptions of the dominant conceptual model of litter decomposition. The model posits that a primary control on the rate of decomposition at regional to global scales is climate (temperature...

Assumptions to the model of managing knowledge workers in modern organizations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Igielski Michał

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Changes in the twenty-first century are faster, suddenly appear, not always desirable for the smooth functioning of the company. This is the domain of globalization, in which new events - opportunities or threats, forcing the company all the time to act. More and more things depend on the intangible assets of the undertaking, its strategic potential. Certain types of work require more knowledge, experience and independent thinking, and custom than others. Therefore in this article the author has taken up the subject of knowledge workers in contemporary organizations. The aim of the study is to attempt to create assumptions about the knowledge management model in these organizations, based on literature analysis and empirical research. In this regard, the author describes the contemporary conditions of employee management and the skills and competences of knowledge workers. In addition, he conducted research (2016 in 100 medium enterprises in the province of Pomerania, using a tool in the form of a questionnaire and an interview. Already at the beginning of the analysis of the data collected, it turned out that for all employers it should be important to discern differences in the creation of a new category of managers who have knowledge useful for the functioning of the company. Moreover, with the experience gained in a similar research process previously carried out in companies from the Baltic Sea Region, the author knew about the positive influence of these people on creating new solutions or improving the quality of already existing products or services.

Cement/clay interactions: feedback on the increasing complexity of modeling assumptions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marty, Nicolas C.M.; Gaucher, Eric C.; Tournassat, Christophe; Gaboreau, Stephane; Vong, Chan Quang; Claret, F.; Munier, Isabelle; Cochepin, Benoit

2012-01-01

Document available in extended abstract form only. Cementitious materials will be widely used in French concept of radioactive waste repositories. During their degradation over time, in contact with geological pore water, they will release hyper-alkaline fluids rich in calcium and alkaline cations. This chemical gradient likely to develop at the cement/clay interfaces will induce geochemical transformations. The first simplified calculations based mainly on simple mass balance calculation led to a very pessimistic understanding of the real expansion mechanism of the alkaline plume. However, geochemical and migration processes are much more complex because of the dissolution of the barrier's accessory phases and the precipitation of secondary minerals. To describe and to understand this complexity, coupled geochemistry and transport calculations are a useful and a mandatory tool. Furthermore, such sets of modeling when properly calibrated on experimental results are able to give insights on larger time scale unreachable with experiments. Since approximately 20 years, numerous papers have described the results of reactive transport modeling of cement/clay interactions with various numerical assumptions. For example, some authors selected a purely thermodynamic approach while others preferred a coupled thermodynamic/kinetic approach. Unfortunately, most of these studies used different and not comparable parameters as space discretization, initial and boundary conditions, thermodynamic databases, clayey and cementitious materials, etc... This study revisits the types of simulations proposed in the past to represent the effect of an alkaline perturbation with regard to the degree of complexity that was considered. The main goal of the study is to perform simulations with a consistent set of data and an increasing complexity. In doing so, the analysis of numerical results will give a clear vision of key parameters driving the expansion of alteration fronts and

40 CFR 265.150 - State assumption of responsibility.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

..., STORAGE, AND DISPOSAL FACILITIES Financial Requirements § 265.150 State assumption of responsibility. (a) If a State either assumes legal responsibility for an owner's or operator's compliance with the... 40 Protection of Environment 25 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false State assumption of responsibility...

40 CFR 144.66 - State assumption of responsibility.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) UNDERGROUND INJECTION CONTROL PROGRAM Financial Responsibility: Class I Hazardous Waste Injection Wells § 144.66 State assumption of responsibility. (a) If a State either assumes legal... 40 Protection of Environment 22 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false State assumption of responsibility...

On the assumption of vanishing temperature fluctuations at the wall for heat transfer modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Sommer, T. P.; So, R. M. C.; Zhang, H. S.

1993-01-01

Boundary conditions for fluctuating wall temperature are required for near-wall heat transfer modeling. However, their correct specifications for arbitrary thermal boundary conditions are not clear. The conventional approach is to assume zero fluctuating wall temperature or zero gradient for the temperature variance at the wall. These are idealized specifications and the latter condition could lead to an ill posed problem for fully-developed pipe and channel flows. In this paper, the validity and extent of the zero fluctuating wall temperature condition for heat transfer calculations is examined. The approach taken is to assume a Taylor expansion in the wall normal coordinate for the fluctuating temperature that is general enough to account for both zero and non-zero value at the wall. Turbulent conductivity is calculated from the temperature variance and its dissipation rate. Heat transfer calculations assuming both zero and non-zero fluctuating wall temperature reveal that the zero fluctuating wall temperature assumption is in general valid. The effects of non-zero fluctuating wall temperature are limited only to a very small region near the wall.

Load assumption for fatigue design of structures and components counting methods, safety aspects, practical application

CERN Document Server

Köhler, Michael; Pötter, Kurt; Zenner, Harald

2017-01-01

Understanding the fatigue behaviour of structural components under variable load amplitude is an essential prerequisite for safe and reliable light-weight design. For designing and dimensioning, the expected stress (load) is compared with the capacity to withstand loads (fatigue strength). In this process, the safety necessary for each particular application must be ensured. A prerequisite for ensuring the required fatigue strength is a reliable load assumption. The authors describe the transformation of the stress- and load-time functions which have been measured under operational conditions to spectra or matrices with the application of counting methods. The aspects which must be considered for ensuring a reliable load assumption for designing and dimensioning are discussed in detail. Furthermore, the theoretical background for estimating the fatigue life of structural components is explained, and the procedures are discussed for numerous applications in practice. One of the prime intentions of the authors ...

40 CFR 264.150 - State assumption of responsibility.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... FACILITIES Financial Requirements § 264.150 State assumption of responsibility. (a) If a State either assumes legal responsibility for an owner's or operator's compliance with the closure, post-closure care, or... 40 Protection of Environment 25 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false State assumption of responsibility...

40 CFR 261.150 - State assumption of responsibility.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... Excluded Hazardous Secondary Materials § 261.150 State assumption of responsibility. (a) If a State either assumes legal responsibility for an owner's or operator's compliance with the closure or liability... 40 Protection of Environment 25 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false State assumption of responsibility...

40 CFR 267.150 - State assumption of responsibility.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... STANDARDIZED PERMIT Financial Requirements § 267.150 State assumption of responsibility. (a) If a State either assumes legal responsibility for an owner's or operator's compliance with the closure care or liability... 40 Protection of Environment 26 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false State assumption of responsibility...

The optimal dynamic immunization under a controlled heterogeneous node-based SIRS model

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Lu-Xing; Draief, Moez; Yang, Xiaofan

2016-05-01

Dynamic immunizations, under which the state of the propagation network of electronic viruses can be changed by adjusting the control measures, are regarded as an alternative to static immunizations. This paper addresses the optimal dynamical immunization under the widely accepted SIRS assumption. First, based on a controlled heterogeneous node-based SIRS model, an optimal control problem capturing the optimal dynamical immunization is formulated. Second, the existence of an optimal dynamical immunization scheme is shown, and the corresponding optimality system is derived. Next, some numerical examples are given to show that an optimal immunization strategy can be worked out by numerically solving the optimality system, from which it is found that the network topology has a complex impact on the optimal immunization strategy. Finally, the difference between a payoff and the minimum payoff is estimated in terms of the deviation of the corresponding immunization strategy from the optimal immunization strategy. The proposed optimal immunization scheme is justified, because it can achieve a low level of infections at a low cost.

Detecting and accounting for violations of the constancy assumption in non-inferiority clinical trials.

Science.gov (United States)

Koopmeiners, Joseph S; Hobbs, Brian P

2018-05-01

Randomized, placebo-controlled clinical trials are the gold standard for evaluating a novel therapeutic agent. In some instances, it may not be considered ethical or desirable to complete a placebo-controlled clinical trial and, instead, the placebo is replaced by an active comparator with the objective of showing either superiority or non-inferiority to the active comparator. In a non-inferiority trial, the experimental treatment is considered non-inferior if it retains a pre-specified proportion of the effect of the active comparator as represented by the non-inferiority margin. A key assumption required for valid inference in the non-inferiority setting is the constancy assumption, which requires that the effect of the active comparator in the non-inferiority trial is consistent with the effect that was observed in previous trials. It has been shown that violations of the constancy assumption can result in a dramatic increase in the rate of incorrectly concluding non-inferiority in the presence of ineffective or even harmful treatment. In this paper, we illustrate how Bayesian hierarchical modeling can be used to facilitate multi-source smoothing of the data from the current trial with the data from historical studies, enabling direct probabilistic evaluation of the constancy assumption. We then show how this result can be used to adapt the non-inferiority margin when the constancy assumption is violated and present simulation results illustrating that our method controls the type-I error rate when the constancy assumption is violated, while retaining the power of the standard approach when the constancy assumption holds. We illustrate our adaptive procedure using a non-inferiority trial of raltegravir, an antiretroviral drug for the treatment of HIV.

The biosphere at Laxemar. Data, assumptions and models used in the SR-Can assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Karlsson, Sara; Kautsky, Ulrik; Loefgren, Anders; Soederbaeck, Bjoern [eds.

2006-10-15

This is essentially a compilation of a variety of reports concerning the site investigations, the research activities and information derived from other sources important for the safety assessment. The main objective is to present prerequisites, methods and data used, in the biosphere modelling for the safety assessment SR-Can at the Laxemar site. A major part of the report focuses on how site-specific data are used, recalculated or modified in order to be applicable in the safety assessment context; and the methods and sub-models that are the basis for the biosphere modelling. Furthermore, the assumptions made as to the future states of surface ecosystems are mainly presented in this report. A similar report is provided for the Forsmark area. This report summarises the method adopted for safety assessment following a radionuclide release into the biosphere. The approach utilises the information about the site as far as possible and presents a way of calculating risk to humans. A central tool in the work is the description of the topography, where there is good understanding of the present conditions and the development over time is fairly predictable. The topography affects surface hydrology, sedimentation, size of drainage areas and the characteristics of ecosystems. Other parameters are human nutritional intake, which is assumed to be constant over time, and primary production (photosynthesis), which also is a fairly constant parameter over time. The Landscape Dose Factor approach (LDF) gives an integrated measure for the site and also resolves the issues relating to the size of the group with highest exposure. If this approach is widely accepted as method, still some improvements and refinement are necessary in collecting missing site data, reanalysing site data, reviewing radionuclide specific data, reformulating ecosystem models and evaluating the results with further sensitivity analysis.

The biosphere at Laxemar. Data, assumptions and models used in the SR-Can assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Karlsson, Sara; Kautsky, Ulrik; Loefgren, Anders; Soederbaeck, Bjoern

2006-10-01

This is essentially a compilation of a variety of reports concerning the site investigations, the research activities and information derived from other sources important for the safety assessment. The main objective is to present prerequisites, methods and data used, in the biosphere modelling for the safety assessment SR-Can at the Laxemar site. A major part of the report focuses on how site-specific data are used, recalculated or modified in order to be applicable in the safety assessment context; and the methods and sub-models that are the basis for the biosphere modelling. Furthermore, the assumptions made as to the future states of surface ecosystems are mainly presented in this report. A similar report is provided for the Forsmark area. This report summarises the method adopted for safety assessment following a radionuclide release into the biosphere. The approach utilises the information about the site as far as possible and presents a way of calculating risk to humans. A central tool in the work is the description of the topography, where there is good understanding of the present conditions and the development over time is fairly predictable. The topography affects surface hydrology, sedimentation, size of drainage areas and the characteristics of ecosystems. Other parameters are human nutritional intake, which is assumed to be constant over time, and primary production (photosynthesis), which also is a fairly constant parameter over time. The Landscape Dose Factor approach (LDF) gives an integrated measure for the site and also resolves the issues relating to the size of the group with highest exposure. If this approach is widely accepted as method, still some improvements and refinement are necessary in collecting missing site data, reanalysing site data, reviewing radionuclide specific data, reformulating ecosystem models and evaluating the results with further sensitivity analysis

Regression assumptions in clinical psychology research practice—a systematic review of common misconceptions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ernst, Anja F.; Albers, Casper J.

2017-01-01

Misconceptions about the assumptions behind the standard linear regression model are widespread and dangerous. These lead to using linear regression when inappropriate, and to employing alternative procedures with less statistical power when unnecessary. Our systematic literature review investigated

BPA review of Washington Public Power Supply System, Projects 1 and 3 (WNP 1 and 3), construction schedule and financing assumptions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1984-01-01

This document contains the following appendices: Data provided By Supply System Regarding Costs and Schedules; Basic Supply System Data and Assumptions; Detailed Modeling of Net Present Values; Origin and Detailed Description of the System Analysis Mode; Decision Analysis Model; Pro Forma Budget Expenditure Levels for Fiscal years 1984 through 1990; Financial Flexibility Analysis - Discretionary/Nondiscretionary Expenditure Levels; Detailed Analysis of BPA's Debt Structure Under the 13 Pro Forma Budget Scenarios for Fiscal Years 1984 through 1990; Wertheim and Co., Inc., August 30, 1984 Letter; Project Considerations and Licensing/Regulatory Issues, Supply System September 15, 1984 Letter; and Summary of Litigation Affecting WNP 1 and 3, and WNP 4 and 5

Formalization and Analysis of Reasoning by Assumption

OpenAIRE

Bosse, T.; Jonker, C.M.; Treur, J.

2006-01-01

This article introduces a novel approach for the analysis of the dynamics of reasoning processes and explores its applicability for the reasoning pattern called reasoning by assumption. More specifically, for a case study in the domain of a Master Mind game, it is shown how empirical human reasoning traces can be formalized and automatically analyzed against dynamic properties they fulfill. To this end, for the pattern of reasoning by assumption a variety of dynamic properties have been speci...

Investigating Darcy-scale assumptions by means of a multiphysics algorithm

Science.gov (United States)

Tomin, Pavel; Lunati, Ivan

2016-09-01

Multiphysics (or hybrid) algorithms, which couple Darcy and pore-scale descriptions of flow through porous media in a single numerical framework, are usually employed to decrease the computational cost of full pore-scale simulations or to increase the accuracy of pure Darcy-scale simulations when a simple macroscopic description breaks down. Despite the massive increase in available computational power, the application of these techniques remains limited to core-size problems and upscaling remains crucial for practical large-scale applications. In this context, the Hybrid Multiscale Finite Volume (HMsFV) method, which constructs the macroscopic (Darcy-scale) problem directly by numerical averaging of pore-scale flow, offers not only a flexible framework to efficiently deal with multiphysics problems, but also a tool to investigate the assumptions used to derive macroscopic models and to better understand the relationship between pore-scale quantities and the corresponding macroscale variables. Indeed, by direct comparison of the multiphysics solution with a reference pore-scale simulation, we can assess the validity of the closure assumptions inherent to the multiphysics algorithm and infer the consequences for macroscopic models at the Darcy scale. We show that the definition of the scale ratio based on the geometric properties of the porous medium is well justified only for single-phase flow, whereas in case of unstable multiphase flow the nonlinear interplay between different forces creates complex fluid patterns characterized by new spatial scales, which emerge dynamically and weaken the scale-separation assumption. In general, the multiphysics solution proves very robust even when the characteristic size of the fluid-distribution patterns is comparable with the observation length, provided that all relevant physical processes affecting the fluid distribution are considered. This suggests that macroscopic constitutive relationships (e.g., the relative

Multiplant strategy under core-periphery structure

OpenAIRE

Tsubota, Kenmei

2012-01-01

A typical implicit assumption on monopolistic competition models for trade and economic geography is that firms can produce and sell only at one place. This paper fallows endogenous determination of the number of plants in a new economic geography model and examine the stable outcomes of organization choice between single-plant and multi-plant in two regions. We explicitly consider the firms' trade-off between larger economies of scale under single plant configuration and the saving in interr...

DDH-Like Assumptions Based on Extension Rings

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cramer, Ronald; Damgård, Ivan Bjerre; Kiltz, Eike

2012-01-01

We introduce and study a new type of DDH-like assumptions based on groups of prime order q. Whereas standard DDH is based on encoding elements of $\\mathbb{F}_{q}$ “in the exponent” of elements in the group, we ask what happens if instead we put in the exponent elements of the extension ring $R_f=......-Reingold style pseudorandom functions, and auxiliary input secure encryption. This can be seen as an alternative to the known family of k-LIN assumptions....

A consistent NPMLE of the joint distribution function with competing risks data under the dependent masking and right-censoring model.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Jiahui; Yu, Qiqing

2016-01-01

Dinse (Biometrics, 38:417-431, 1982) provides a special type of right-censored and masked competing risks data and proposes a non-parametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE) and a pseudo MLE of the joint distribution function [Formula: see text] with such data. However, their asymptotic properties have not been studied so far. Under the extention of either the conditional masking probability (CMP) model or the random partition masking (RPM) model (Yu and Li, J Nonparametr Stat 24:753-764, 2012), we show that (1) Dinse's estimators are consistent if [Formula: see text] takes on finitely many values and each point in the support set of [Formula: see text] can be observed; (2) if the failure time is continuous, the NPMLE is not uniquely determined, and the standard approach (which puts weights only on one element in each observed set) leads to an inconsistent NPMLE; (3) in general, Dinse's estimators are not consistent even under the discrete assumption; (4) we construct a consistent NPMLE. The consistency is given under a new model called dependent masking and right-censoring model. The CMP model and the RPM model are indeed special cases of the new model. We compare our estimator to Dinse's estimators through simulation and real data. Simulation study indicates that the consistent NPMLE is a good approximation to the underlying distribution for moderate sample sizes.

The Immoral Assumption Effect: Moralization Drives Negative Trait Attributions.

Science.gov (United States)

Meindl, Peter; Johnson, Kate M; Graham, Jesse

2016-04-01

Jumping to negative conclusions about other people's traits is judged as morally bad by many people. Despite this, across six experiments (total N = 2,151), we find that multiple types of moral evaluations--even evaluations related to open-mindedness, tolerance, and compassion--play a causal role in these potentially pernicious trait assumptions. Our results also indicate that moralization affects negative-but not positive-trait assumptions, and that the effect of morality on negative assumptions cannot be explained merely by people's general (nonmoral) preferences or other factors that distinguish moral and nonmoral traits, such as controllability or desirability. Together, these results suggest that one of the more destructive human tendencies--making negative assumptions about others--can be caused by the better angels of our nature. © 2016 by the Society for Personality and Social Psychology, Inc.

General Friction Model Extended by the Effect of Strain Hardening

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Chris V.; Martins, Paulo A.F.; Bay, Niels

2016-01-01

An extension to the general friction model proposed by Wanheim and Bay [1] to include the effect of strain hardening is proposed. The friction model relates the friction stress to the fraction of real contact area by a friction factor under steady state sliding. The original model for the real...... contact area as function of the normalized contact pressure is based on slip-line analysis and hence on the assumption of rigid-ideally plastic material behavior. In the present work, a general finite element model is established to, firstly, reproduce the original model under the assumption of rigid...

Formalization and analysis of reasoning by assumption.

Science.gov (United States)

Bosse, Tibor; Jonker, Catholijn M; Treur, Jan

2006-01-02

This article introduces a novel approach for the analysis of the dynamics of reasoning processes and explores its applicability for the reasoning pattern called reasoning by assumption. More specifically, for a case study in the domain of a Master Mind game, it is shown how empirical human reasoning traces can be formalized and automatically analyzed against dynamic properties they fulfill. To this end, for the pattern of reasoning by assumption a variety of dynamic properties have been specified, some of which are considered characteristic for the reasoning pattern, whereas some other properties can be used to discriminate among different approaches to the reasoning. These properties have been automatically checked for the traces acquired in experiments undertaken. The approach turned out to be beneficial from two perspectives. First, checking characteristic properties contributes to the empirical validation of a theory on reasoning by assumption. Second, checking discriminating properties allows the analyst to identify different classes of human reasoners. 2006 Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Inc.

Testing of one-inch UF{sub 6} cylinder valves under simulated fire conditions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Elliott, P.G. [Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Inc., Paducah, KY (United States)

1991-12-31

Accurate computational models which predict the behavior of UF{sub 6} cylinders exposed to fires are required to validate existing firefighting and emergency response procedures. Since the cylinder valve is a factor in the containment provided by the UF{sub 6} cylinder, its behavior under fire conditions has been a necessary assumption in the development of such models. Consequently, test data is needed to substantiate these assumptions. Several studies cited in this document provide data related to the behavior of a 1-inch UF{sub 6} cylinder valve in fire situations. To acquire additional data, a series of tests were conducted at the Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant (PGDP) under a unique set of test conditions. This document describes this testing and the resulting data.

MONITORED GEOLOGIC REPOSITORY LIFE CYCLE COST ESTIMATE ASSUMPTIONS DOCUMENT

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

R.E. Sweeney

2001-01-01

The purpose of this assumptions document is to provide general scope, strategy, technical basis, schedule and cost assumptions for the Monitored Geologic Repository (MGR) life cycle cost (LCC) estimate and schedule update incorporating information from the Viability Assessment (VA) , License Application Design Selection (LADS), 1999 Update to the Total System Life Cycle Cost (TSLCC) estimate and from other related and updated information. This document is intended to generally follow the assumptions outlined in the previous MGR cost estimates and as further prescribed by DOE guidance

Monitored Geologic Repository Life Cycle Cost Estimate Assumptions Document

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sweeney, R.

2000-01-01

The purpose of this assumptions document is to provide general scope, strategy, technical basis, schedule and cost assumptions for the Monitored Geologic Repository (MGR) life cycle cost estimate and schedule update incorporating information from the Viability Assessment (VA), License Application Design Selection (LADS), 1999 Update to the Total System Life Cycle Cost (TSLCC) estimate and from other related and updated information. This document is intended to generally follow the assumptions outlined in the previous MGR cost estimates and as further prescribed by DOE guidance

Modeling size effects on fatigue life of a zirconium-based bulk metallic glass under bending

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yuan Tao; Wang Gongyao; Feng Qingming; Liaw, Peter K.; Yokoyama, Yoshihiko; Inoue, Akihisa

2013-01-01

A size effect on the fatigue-life cycles of a Zr 50 Cu 30 Al 10 Ni 10 (at.%) bulk metallic glass has been observed in the four-point-bending fatigue experiment. Under the same bending-stress condition, large-sized samples tend to exhibit longer fatigue lives than small-sized samples. This size effect on the fatigue life cannot be satisfactorily explained by the flaw-based Weibull theories. Based on the experimental results, this study explores possible approaches to modeling the size effects on the bending-fatigue life of bulk metallic glasses, and proposes two fatigue-life models based on the Weibull distribution. The first model assumes, empirically, log-linear effects of the sample thickness on the Weibull parameters. The second model incorporates the mechanistic knowledge of the fatigue behavior of metallic glasses, and assumes that the shear-band density, instead of the flaw density, has significant influence on the bending fatigue-life cycles. Promising predictive results provide evidence of the potential validity of the models and their assumptions.

Influence of simulation assumptions and input parameters on energy balance calculations of residential buildings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dodoo, Ambrose; Tettey, Uniben Yao Ayikoe; Gustavsson, Leif

2017-01-01

In this study, we modelled the influence of different simulation assumptions on energy balances of two variants of a residential building, comprising the building in its existing state and with energy-efficient improvements. We explored how selected parameter combinations and variations affect the energy balances of the building configurations. The selected parameters encompass outdoor microclimate, building thermal envelope and household electrical equipment including technical installations. Our modelling takes into account hourly as well as seasonal profiles of different internal heat gains. The results suggest that the impact of parameter interactions on calculated space heating of buildings is somewhat small and relatively more noticeable for an energy-efficient building in contrast to a conventional building. We find that the influence of parameters combinations is more apparent as more individual parameters are varied. The simulations show that a building's calculated space heating demand is significantly influenced by how heat gains from electrical equipment are modelled. For the analyzed building versions, calculated final energy for space heating differs by 9–14 kWh/m"2 depending on the assumed energy efficiency level for electrical equipment. The influence of electrical equipment on calculated final space heating is proportionally more significant for an energy-efficient building compared to a conventional building. This study shows the influence of different simulation assumptions and parameter combinations when varied simultaneously. - Highlights: • Energy balances are modelled for conventional and efficient variants of a building. • Influence of assumptions and parameter combinations and variations are explored. • Parameter interactions influence is apparent as more single parameters are varied. • Calculated space heating demand is notably affected by how heat gains are modelled.

Mathematical models of cancer and their use in risk assessment. Technical report No. 27

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Whittemore, A.S.

1979-08-01

The sensitivity of risk predictions to certain assumptions in the underlying mathematical model is illustrated. To avoid the misleading and erroneous predictions that can result from the use of models incorporating assumptions whose validity is questionable, the following steps should be taken. First, state the assumptions used in a proposed model in terms that are clear to all who will use the model to assess risk. Second, assess the sensitivity of predictions to changes in model assumptions. Third, scrutinize pivotal assumptions in light of the best available human and animal data. Fourth, stress inconsistencies between model assumptions and experimental or epidemiological observations. The model fitting procedure will yield the most information when the data discriminates between theories because of their inconsistency with one or more assumptions. In this sense, mathematical theories are most successful when they fail. Finally, exclude value judgments from the quantitative procedures used to assess risk; instead include them explicitly in that part of the decision process concerned with cost-benefit analysis

Testing the assumptions of the pyrodiversity begets biodiversity hypothesis for termites in semi-arid Australia.

Science.gov (United States)

Davis, Hayley; Ritchie, Euan G; Avitabile, Sarah; Doherty, Tim; Nimmo, Dale G

2018-04-01

Fire shapes the composition and functioning of ecosystems globally. In many regions, fire is actively managed to create diverse patch mosaics of fire-ages under the assumption that a diversity of post-fire-age classes will provide a greater variety of habitats, thereby enabling species with differing habitat requirements to coexist, and enhancing species diversity (the pyrodiversity begets biodiversity hypothesis). However, studies provide mixed support for this hypothesis. Here, using termite communities in a semi-arid region of southeast Australia, we test four key assumptions of the pyrodiversity begets biodiversity hypothesis (i) that fire shapes vegetation structure over sufficient time frames to influence species' occurrence, (ii) that animal species are linked to resources that are themselves shaped by fire and that peak at different times since fire, (iii) that species' probability of occurrence or abundance peaks at varying times since fire and (iv) that providing a diversity of fire-ages increases species diversity at the landscape scale. Termite species and habitat elements were sampled in 100 sites across a range of fire-ages, nested within 20 landscapes chosen to represent a gradient of low to high pyrodiversity. We used regression modelling to explore relationships between termites, habitat and fire. Fire affected two habitat elements (coarse woody debris and the cover of woody vegetation) that were associated with the probability of occurrence of three termite species and overall species richness, thus supporting the first two assumptions of the pyrodiversity hypothesis. However, this did not result in those species or species richness being affected by fire history per se. Consequently, landscapes with a low diversity of fire histories had similar numbers of termite species as landscapes with high pyrodiversity. Our work suggests that encouraging a diversity of fire-ages for enhancing termite species richness in this study region is not necessary.

Sampling Assumptions in Inductive Generalization

Science.gov (United States)

Navarro, Daniel J.; Dry, Matthew J.; Lee, Michael D.

2012-01-01

Inductive generalization, where people go beyond the data provided, is a basic cognitive capability, and it underpins theoretical accounts of learning, categorization, and decision making. To complete the inductive leap needed for generalization, people must make a key "sampling" assumption about how the available data were generated.…

Legal assumptions for private company claim for additional (supplementary payment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Šogorov Stevan

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Subject matter of analyze in this article are legal assumptions which must be met in order to enable private company to call for additional payment. After introductory remarks discussion is focused on existence of provisions regarding additional payment in formation contract, or in shareholders meeting general resolution, as starting point for company's claim. Second assumption is concrete resolution of shareholders meeting which creates individual obligations for additional payments. Third assumption is defined as distinctness regarding sum of payment and due date. Sending of claim by relevant company body is set as fourth legal assumption for realization of company's right to claim additional payments from member of private company.

Revealing patterns of cultural transmission from frequency data: equilibrium and non-equilibrium assumptions

Science.gov (United States)

Crema, Enrico R.; Kandler, Anne; Shennan, Stephen

2016-12-01

A long tradition of cultural evolutionary studies has developed a rich repertoire of mathematical models of social learning. Early studies have laid the foundation of more recent endeavours to infer patterns of cultural transmission from observed frequencies of a variety of cultural data, from decorative motifs on potsherds to baby names and musical preferences. While this wide range of applications provides an opportunity for the development of generalisable analytical workflows, archaeological data present new questions and challenges that require further methodological and theoretical discussion. Here we examine the decorative motifs of Neolithic pottery from an archaeological assemblage in Western Germany, and argue that the widely used (and relatively undiscussed) assumption that observed frequencies are the result of a system in equilibrium conditions is unwarranted, and can lead to incorrect conclusions. We analyse our data with a simulation-based inferential framework that can overcome some of the intrinsic limitations in archaeological data, as well as handle both equilibrium conditions and instances where the mode of cultural transmission is time-variant. Results suggest that none of the models examined can produce the observed pattern under equilibrium conditions, and suggest. instead temporal shifts in the patterns of cultural transmission.

Estimation of the energy loss at the blades in rowing: common assumptions revisited.

Science.gov (United States)

Hofmijster, Mathijs; De Koning, Jos; Van Soest, A J

2010-08-01

In rowing, power is inevitably lost as kinetic energy is imparted to the water during push-off with the blades. Power loss is estimated from reconstructed blade kinetics and kinematics. Traditionally, it is assumed that the oar is completely rigid and that force acts strictly perpendicular to the blade. The aim of the present study was to evaluate how reconstructed blade kinematics, kinetics, and average power loss are affected by these assumptions. A calibration experiment with instrumented oars and oarlocks was performed to establish relations between measured signals and oar deformation and blade force. Next, an on-water experiment was performed with a single female world-class rower rowing at constant racing pace in an instrumented scull. Blade kinematics, kinetics, and power loss under different assumptions (rigid versus deformable oars; absence or presence of a blade force component parallel to the oar) were reconstructed. Estimated power losses at the blades are 18% higher when parallel blade force is incorporated. Incorporating oar deformation affects reconstructed blade kinematics and instantaneous power loss, but has no effect on estimation of power losses at the blades. Assumptions on oar deformation and blade force direction have implications for the reconstructed blade kinetics and kinematics. Neglecting parallel blade forces leads to a substantial underestimation of power losses at the blades.

Retail Price Model

Science.gov (United States)

The Retail Price Model is a tool to estimate the average retail electricity prices - under both competitive and regulated market structures - using power sector projections and assumptions from the Energy Information Administration.

Proposed optical test of Bell's inequalities not resting upon the fair sampling assumption

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Santos, Emilio

2004-01-01

Arguments are given against the fair sampling assumption, used to claim an empirical disproof of local realism. New tests are proposed, able to discriminate between quantum mechanics and a restricted, but appealing, family of local hidden-variables models. Such tests require detectors with efficiencies just above 20%

Idaho National Engineering Laboratory installation roadmap assumptions document

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-05-01

This document is a composite of roadmap assumptions developed for the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) by the US Department of Energy Idaho Field Office and subcontractor personnel as a key element in the implementation of the Roadmap Methodology for the INEL Site. The development and identification of these assumptions in an important factor in planning basis development and establishes the planning baseline for all subsequent roadmap analysis at the INEL

Deep Borehole Field Test Requirements and Controlled Assumptions.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hardin, Ernest [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2015-07-01

This document presents design requirements and controlled assumptions intended for use in the engineering development and testing of: 1) prototype packages for radioactive waste disposal in deep boreholes; 2) a waste package surface handling system; and 3) a subsurface system for emplacing and retrieving packages in deep boreholes. Engineering development and testing is being performed as part of the Deep Borehole Field Test (DBFT; SNL 2014a). This document presents parallel sets of requirements for a waste disposal system and for the DBFT, showing the close relationship. In addition to design, it will also inform planning for drilling, construction, and scientific characterization activities for the DBFT. The information presented here follows typical preparations for engineering design. It includes functional and operating requirements for handling and emplacement/retrieval equipment, waste package design and emplacement requirements, borehole construction requirements, sealing requirements, and performance criteria. Assumptions are included where they could impact engineering design. Design solutions are avoided in the requirements discussion. Deep Borehole Field Test Requirements and Controlled Assumptions July 21, 2015 iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This set of requirements and assumptions has benefited greatly from reviews by Gordon Appel, Geoff Freeze, Kris Kuhlman, Bob MacKinnon, Steve Pye, David Sassani, Dave Sevougian, and Jiann Su.

School Principals' Assumptions about Human Nature: Implications for Leadership in Turkey

Science.gov (United States)

Sabanci, Ali

2008-01-01

This article considers principals' assumptions about human nature in Turkey and the relationship between the assumptions held and the leadership style adopted in schools. The findings show that school principals hold Y-type assumptions and prefer a relationship-oriented style in their relations with assistant principals. However, both principals…

Major Assumptions of Mastery Learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, Lorin W.

Mastery learning can be described as a set of group-based, individualized, teaching and learning strategies based on the premise that virtually all students can and will, in time, learn what the school has to teach. Inherent in this description are assumptions concerning the nature of schools, classroom instruction, and learners. According to the…

Sensitivity of C-Band Polarimetric Radar-Based Drop Size Distribution Measurements to Maximum Diameter Assumptions

Science.gov (United States)

Carey, Lawrence D.; Petersen, Walter A.

2011-01-01

Mission (GPM/PMM Science Team)-funded study is to document the sensitivity of DSD measurements, including estimates of D0, from C-band Z(sub dr) and reflectivity to this range of D(sub max) assumptions. For this study, GPM Ground Validation 2DVD's were operated under the scanning domain of the UAHuntsville ARMOR C-band dual-polarimetric radar. Approximately 7500 minutes of DSD data were collected and processed to create gamma size distribution parameters using a truncated method of moments approach. After creating the gamma parameter datasets the DSD's were then used as input to a T-matrix model for computation of polarimetric radar moments at C-band. All necessary model parameterizations, such as temperature, drop shape, and drop fall mode, were fixed at typically accepted values while the D(sub max) assumption was allowed to vary in sensitivity tests. By hypothesizing a DSD model with D(sub max) (fit) from which the empirical fit to D0 = F[Z(sub dr)] was derived via non-linear least squares regression and a separate reference DSD model with D(sub max) (truth), bias and standard error in D0 retrievals were estimated in the presence of Z(sub dr) measurement error and hypothesized mismatch in D(sub max) assumptions. Although the normalized standard error for D0 = F[Z(sub dr)r] can increase slightly (as much as from 11% to 16% for all 7500 DSDs) when the D(sub max) (fit) does not match D(sub max) (truth), the primary impact of uncertainty in D(sub max) is a potential increase in normalized bias error in D0 (from 0% to as much as 10% over all 7500 DSDs, depending on the extent of the mismatch between D(sub max) (fit) and D(sub max) (truth)). For DSDs characterized by large Z(sub dr) (Z(sub dr) > 1.5 to 2.0 dB), the normalized bias error for D0 estimation at C-band is sometimes unacceptably large (> 10%), again depending on the extent of the hypothesized D(sub max) mismatch. Modeled errors in D0 retrievals from Z(sub dr) at C-band are demonstrated in detail and comparedo

Incorrect modeling of the failure process of minimally repaired systems under random conditions: The effect on the maintenance costs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pulcini, Gianpaolo

2015-01-01

This note investigates the effect of the incorrect modeling of the failure process of minimally repaired systems that operates under random environmental conditions on the costs of a periodic replacement maintenance. The motivation of this paper is given by a recently published paper, where a wrong formulation of the expected cost for unit time under a periodic replacement policy is obtained. This wrong formulation is due to the incorrect assumption that the intensity function of minimally repaired systems that operate under random conditions has the same functional form as the failure rate of the first failure time. This produced an incorrect optimization of the replacement maintenance. Thus, in this note the conceptual differences between the intensity function and the failure rate of the first failure time are first highlighted. Then, the correct expressions of the expected cost and of the optimal replacement period are provided. Finally, a real application is used to measure how severe can be the economical consequences caused by the incorrect modeling of the failure process.

Is the assumption of normality or log-normality for continuous response data critical for benchmark dose estimation?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shao, Kan; Gift, Jeffrey S.; Setzer, R. Woodrow

2013-01-01

Continuous responses (e.g. body weight) are widely used in risk assessment for determining the benchmark dose (BMD) which is used to derive a U.S. EPA reference dose. One critical question that is not often addressed in dose–response assessments is whether to model the continuous data as normally or log-normally distributed. Additionally, if lognormality is assumed, and only summarized response data (i.e., mean ± standard deviation) are available as is usual in the peer-reviewed literature, the BMD can only be approximated. In this study, using the “hybrid” method and relative deviation approach, we first evaluate six representative continuous dose–response datasets reporting individual animal responses to investigate the impact on BMD/BMDL estimates of (1) the distribution assumption and (2) the use of summarized versus individual animal data when a log-normal distribution is assumed. We also conduct simulation studies evaluating model fits to various known distributions to investigate whether the distribution assumption has influence on BMD/BMDL estimates. Our results indicate that BMDs estimated using the hybrid method are more sensitive to the distribution assumption than counterpart BMDs estimated using the relative deviation approach. The choice of distribution assumption has limited impact on the BMD/BMDL estimates when the within dose-group variance is small, while the lognormality assumption is a better choice for relative deviation method when data are more skewed because of its appropriateness in describing the relationship between mean and standard deviation. Additionally, the results suggest that the use of summarized data versus individual response data to characterize log-normal distributions has minimal impact on BMD estimates. - Highlights: • We investigate to what extent the distribution assumption can affect BMD estimates. • Both real data analysis and simulation study are conducted. • BMDs estimated using hybrid method are more

Is the assumption of normality or log-normality for continuous response data critical for benchmark dose estimation?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shao, Kan, E-mail: Shao.Kan@epa.gov [ORISE Postdoctoral Fellow, National Center for Environmental Assessment, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States); Gift, Jeffrey S. [National Center for Environmental Assessment, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States); Setzer, R. Woodrow [National Center for Computational Toxicology, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States)

2013-11-01

Continuous responses (e.g. body weight) are widely used in risk assessment for determining the benchmark dose (BMD) which is used to derive a U.S. EPA reference dose. One critical question that is not often addressed in dose–response assessments is whether to model the continuous data as normally or log-normally distributed. Additionally, if lognormality is assumed, and only summarized response data (i.e., mean ± standard deviation) are available as is usual in the peer-reviewed literature, the BMD can only be approximated. In this study, using the “hybrid” method and relative deviation approach, we first evaluate six representative continuous dose–response datasets reporting individual animal responses to investigate the impact on BMD/BMDL estimates of (1) the distribution assumption and (2) the use of summarized versus individual animal data when a log-normal distribution is assumed. We also conduct simulation studies evaluating model fits to various known distributions to investigate whether the distribution assumption has influence on BMD/BMDL estimates. Our results indicate that BMDs estimated using the hybrid method are more sensitive to the distribution assumption than counterpart BMDs estimated using the relative deviation approach. The choice of distribution assumption has limited impact on the BMD/BMDL estimates when the within dose-group variance is small, while the lognormality assumption is a better choice for relative deviation method when data are more skewed because of its appropriateness in describing the relationship between mean and standard deviation. Additionally, the results suggest that the use of summarized data versus individual response data to characterize log-normal distributions has minimal impact on BMD estimates. - Highlights: • We investigate to what extent the distribution assumption can affect BMD estimates. • Both real data analysis and simulation study are conducted. • BMDs estimated using hybrid method are more

Has the "Equal Environments" assumption been tested in twin studies?

Science.gov (United States)

Eaves, Lindon; Foley, Debra; Silberg, Judy

2003-12-01

A recurring criticism of the twin method for quantifying genetic and environmental components of human differences is the necessity of the so-called "equal environments assumption" (EEA) (i.e., that monozygotic and dizygotic twins experience equally correlated environments). It has been proposed to test the EEA by stratifying twin correlations by indices of the amount of shared environment. However, relevant environments may also be influenced by genetic differences. We present a model for the role of genetic factors in niche selection by twins that may account for variation in indices of the shared twin environment (e.g., contact between members of twin pairs). Simulations reveal that stratification of twin correlations by amount of contact can yield spurious evidence of large shared environmental effects in some strata and even give false indications of genotype x environment interaction. The stratification approach to testing the equal environments assumption may be misleading and the results of such tests may actually be consistent with a simpler theory of the role of genetic factors in niche selection.

Testing surrogacy assumptions: can threatened and endangered plants be grouped by biological similarity and abundances?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Judy P Che-Castaldo

Full Text Available There is renewed interest in implementing surrogate species approaches in conservation planning due to the large number of species in need of management but limited resources and data. One type of surrogate approach involves selection of one or a few species to represent a larger group of species requiring similar management actions, so that protection and persistence of the selected species would result in conservation of the group of species. However, among the criticisms of surrogate approaches is the need to test underlying assumptions, which remain rarely examined. In this study, we tested one of the fundamental assumptions underlying use of surrogate species in recovery planning: that there exist groups of threatened and endangered species that are sufficiently similar to warrant similar management or recovery criteria. Using a comprehensive database of all plant species listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act and tree-based random forest analysis, we found no evidence of species groups based on a set of distributional and biological traits or by abundances and patterns of decline. Our results suggested that application of surrogate approaches for endangered species recovery would be unjustified. Thus, conservation planning focused on individual species and their patterns of decline will likely be required to recover listed species.

7 CFR 772.10 - Transfer and assumption-AMP loans.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Transfer and assumption-AMP loans. 772.10 Section 772..., DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE SPECIAL PROGRAMS SERVICING MINOR PROGRAM LOANS § 772.10 Transfer and assumption—AMP loans. (a) Eligibility. The Agency may approve transfers and assumptions of AMP loans when: (1) The...

Using Instrument Simulators and a Satellite Database to Evaluate Microphysical Assumptions in High-Resolution Simulations of Hurricane Rita

Science.gov (United States)

Hristova-Veleva, S. M.; Chao, Y.; Chau, A. H.; Haddad, Z. S.; Knosp, B.; Lambrigtsen, B.; Li, P.; Martin, J. M.; Poulsen, W. L.; Rodriguez, E.; Stiles, B. W.; Turk, J.; Vu, Q.

2009-12-01

Improving forecasting of hurricane intensity remains a significant challenge for the research and operational communities. Many factors determine a tropical cyclone’s intensity. Ultimately, though, intensity is dependent on the magnitude and distribution of the latent heating that accompanies the hydrometeor production during the convective process. Hence, the microphysical processes and their representation in hurricane models are of crucial importance for accurately simulating hurricane intensity and evolution. The accurate modeling of the microphysical processes becomes increasingly important when running high-resolution models that should properly reflect the convective processes in the hurricane eyewall. There are many microphysical parameterizations available today. However, evaluating their performance and selecting the most representative ones remains a challenge. Several field campaigns were focused on collecting in situ microphysical observations to help distinguish between different modeling approaches and improve on the most promising ones. However, these point measurements cannot adequately reflect the space and time correlations characteristic of the convective processes. An alternative approach to evaluating microphysical assumptions is to use multi-parameter remote sensing observations of the 3D storm structure and evolution. In doing so, we could compare modeled to retrieved geophysical parameters. The satellite retrievals, however, carry their own uncertainty. To increase the fidelity of the microphysical evaluation results, we can use instrument simulators to produce satellite observables from the model fields and compare to the observed. This presentation will illustrate how instrument simulators can be used to discriminate between different microphysical assumptions. We will compare and contrast the members of high-resolution ensemble WRF model simulations of Hurricane Rita (2005), each member reflecting different microphysical assumptions

Timber value—a matter of choice: a study of how end use assumptions affect timber values.

Science.gov (United States)

John H. Beuter

1971-01-01

The relationship between estimated timber values and actual timber prices is discussed. Timber values are related to how, where, and when the timber is used. An analysis demonstrates the relative values of a typical Douglas-fir stand under assumptions about timber use.

A constitutive framework for modelling thin incompressible viscoelastic materials under plane stress in the finite strain regime

Science.gov (United States)

Kroon, M.

2011-11-01

Rubbers and soft biological tissues may undergo large deformations and are also viscoelastic. The formulation of constitutive models for these materials poses special challenges. In several applications, especially in biomechanics, these materials are also relatively thin, implying that in-plane stresses dominate and that plane stress may therefore be assumed. In the present paper, a constitutive model for viscoelastic materials in the finite strain regime and under the assumption of plane stress is proposed. It is assumed that the relaxation behaviour in the direction of plane stress can be treated separately, which makes it possible to formulate evolution laws for the plastic strains on explicit form at the same time as incompressibility is fulfilled. Experimental results from biomechanics (dynamic inflation of dog aorta) and rubber mechanics (biaxial stretching of rubber sheets) were used to assess the proposed model. The assessment clearly indicates that the model is fully able to predict the experimental outcome for these types of material.

Hawaiian forest bird trends: using log-linear models to assess long-term trends is supported by model diagnostics and assumptions (reply to Freed and Cann 2013)

Science.gov (United States)

Camp, Richard J.; Pratt, Thane K.; Gorresen, P. Marcos; Woodworth, Bethany L.; Jeffrey, John J.

2014-01-01

Freed and Cann (2013) criticized our use of linear models to assess trends in the status of Hawaiian forest birds through time (Camp et al. 2009a, 2009b, 2010) by questioning our sampling scheme, whether we met model assumptions, and whether we ignored short-term changes in the population time series. In the present paper, we address these concerns and reiterate that our results do not support the position of Freed and Cann (2013) that the forest birds in the Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) are declining, or that the federally listed endangered birds are showing signs of imminent collapse. On the contrary, our data indicate that the 21-year long-term trends for native birds in Hakalau Forest NWR are stable to increasing, especially in areas that have received active management.

Skinfold creep under load of caliper. Linear visco- and poroelastic model simulations.

Science.gov (United States)

Nowak, Joanna; Nowak, Bartosz; Kaczmarek, Mariusz

2015-01-01

This paper addresses the diagnostic idea proposed in [11] to measure the parameter called rate of creep of axillary fold of tissue using modified Harpenden skinfold caliper in order to distinguish normal and edematous tissue. Our simulations are intended to help understanding the creep phenomenon and creep rate parameter as a sensitive indicator of edema existence. The parametric analysis shows the tissue behavior under the external load as well as its sensitivity to changes of crucial hydro-mechanical tissue parameters, e.g., permeability or stiffness. The linear viscoelastic and poroelastic models of normal (single phase) and oedematous tissue (twophase: swelled tissue with excess of interstitial fluid) implemented in COMSOL Multiphysics environment are used. Simulations are performed within the range of small strains for a simplified fold geometry, material characterization and boundary conditions. The predicted creep is the result of viscosity (viscoelastic model) or pore fluid displacement (poroelastic model) in tissue. The tissue deformations, interstitial fluid pressure as well as interstitial fluid velocity are discussed in parametric analysis with respect to elasticity modulus, relaxation time or permeability of tissue. The creep rate determined within the models of tissue is compared and referred to the diagnostic idea in [11]. The results obtained from the two linear models of subcutaneous tissue indicate that the form of creep curve and the creep rate are sensitive to material parameters which characterize the tissue. However, the adopted modelling assumptions point to a limited applicability of the creep rate as the discriminant of oedema.

Simulation modeling for stratified breast cancer screening - a systematic review of cost and quality of life assumptions.

Science.gov (United States)

Arnold, Matthias

2017-12-02

The economic evaluation of stratified breast cancer screening gains momentum, but produces also very diverse results. Systematic reviews so far focused on modeling techniques and epidemiologic assumptions. However, cost and utility parameters received only little attention. This systematic review assesses simulation models for stratified breast cancer screening based on their cost and utility parameters in each phase of breast cancer screening and care. A literature review was conducted to compare economic evaluations with simulation models of personalized breast cancer screening. Study quality was assessed using reporting guidelines. Cost and utility inputs were extracted, standardized and structured using a care delivery framework. Studies were then clustered according to their study aim and parameters were compared within the clusters. Eighteen studies were identified within three study clusters. Reporting quality was very diverse in all three clusters. Only two studies in cluster 1, four studies in cluster 2 and one study in cluster 3 scored high in the quality appraisal. In addition to the quality appraisal, this review assessed if the simulation models were consistent in integrating all relevant phases of care, if utility parameters were consistent and methodological sound and if cost were compatible and consistent in the actual parameters used for screening, diagnostic work up and treatment. Of 18 studies, only three studies did not show signs of potential bias. This systematic review shows that a closer look into the cost and utility parameter can help to identify potential bias. Future simulation models should focus on integrating all relevant phases of care, using methodologically sound utility parameters and avoiding inconsistent cost parameters.

Electron emission from molybdenum under ion bombardment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferron, J.; Alonso, E.V.; Baragiola, R.A.; Oliva-Florio, A.

1981-01-01

Measurements are reported of electron emission yields of clean molybdenum surfaces under bombardment with H + , H 2 + , D + , D 2 + , He + , N + , N 2 + , O + , O 2 + , Ne + , Ar + , Kr + and Xe + in the wide energy range 0.7-60.2 keV. The clean surfaces were produced by inert gas sputtering under ultrahigh vacuum. The results are compared with those predicted by a core-level excitation model. The disagreement found when using correct values for the energy levels of Mo is traced to wrong assumptions in the model. A substantially improved agreement with experiment is obtained using a model in which electron emission results from the excitation of valence electrons from the target by the projectiles and fast recoiling target atoms. (author)

Population genetics inference for longitudinally-sampled mutants under strong selection.

Science.gov (United States)

Lacerda, Miguel; Seoighe, Cathal

2014-11-01

Longitudinal allele frequency data are becoming increasingly prevalent. Such samples permit statistical inference of the population genetics parameters that influence the fate of mutant variants. To infer these parameters by maximum likelihood, the mutant frequency is often assumed to evolve according to the Wright-Fisher model. For computational reasons, this discrete model is commonly approximated by a diffusion process that requires the assumption that the forces of natural selection and mutation are weak. This assumption is not always appropriate. For example, mutations that impart drug resistance in pathogens may evolve under strong selective pressure. Here, we present an alternative approximation to the mutant-frequency distribution that does not make any assumptions about the magnitude of selection or mutation and is much more computationally efficient than the standard diffusion approximation. Simulation studies are used to compare the performance of our method to that of the Wright-Fisher and Gaussian diffusion approximations. For large populations, our method is found to provide a much better approximation to the mutant-frequency distribution when selection is strong, while all three methods perform comparably when selection is weak. Importantly, maximum-likelihood estimates of the selection coefficient are severely attenuated when selection is strong under the two diffusion models, but not when our method is used. This is further demonstrated with an application to mutant-frequency data from an experimental study of bacteriophage evolution. We therefore recommend our method for estimating the selection coefficient when the effective population size is too large to utilize the discrete Wright-Fisher model. Copyright © 2014 by the Genetics Society of America.

Semi-Supervised Transductive Hot Spot Predictor Working on Multiple Assumptions

KAUST Repository

Wang, Jim Jing-Yan; Almasri, Islam; Shi, Yuexiang; Gao, Xin

2014-01-01

of the transductive semi-supervised algorithms takes all the three semisupervised assumptions, i.e., smoothness, cluster and manifold assumptions, together into account during learning. In this paper, we propose a novel semi-supervised method for hot spot residue

Modeling of electron behaviors under microwave electric field in methane and air pre-mixture gas plasma assisted combustion

Science.gov (United States)

Akashi, Haruaki; Sasaki, K.; Yoshinaga, T.

2011-10-01

Recently, plasma-assisted combustion has been focused on for achieving more efficient combustion way of fossil fuels, reducing pollutants and so on. Shinohara et al has reported that the flame length of methane and air premixed burner shortened by irradiating microwave power without increase of gas temperature. This suggests that electrons heated by microwave electric field assist the combustion. They also measured emission from 2nd Positive Band System (2nd PBS) of nitrogen during the irradiation. To clarify this mechanism, electron behavior under microwave power should be examined. To obtain electron transport parameters, electron Monte Carlo simulations in methane and air mixture gas have been done. A simple model has been developed to simulate inside the flame. To make this model simple, some assumptions are made. The electrons diffuse from the combustion plasma region. And the electrons quickly reach their equilibrium state. And it is found that the simulated emission from 2nd PBS agrees with the experimental result. Recently, plasma-assisted combustion has been focused on for achieving more efficient combustion way of fossil fuels, reducing pollutants and so on. Shinohara et al has reported that the flame length of methane and air premixed burner shortened by irradiating microwave power without increase of gas temperature. This suggests that electrons heated by microwave electric field assist the combustion. They also measured emission from 2nd Positive Band System (2nd PBS) of nitrogen during the irradiation. To clarify this mechanism, electron behavior under microwave power should be examined. To obtain electron transport parameters, electron Monte Carlo simulations in methane and air mixture gas have been done. A simple model has been developed to simulate inside the flame. To make this model simple, some assumptions are made. The electrons diffuse from the combustion plasma region. And the electrons quickly reach their equilibrium state. And it is found

Temporal Distinctiveness in Task Switching: Assessing the Mixture-Distribution Assumption

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

James A Grange

2016-02-01

Full Text Available In task switching, increasing the response--cue interval has been shown to reduce the switch cost. This has been attributed to a time-based decay process influencing the activation of memory representations of tasks (task-sets. Recently, an alternative account based on interference rather than decay has been successfully applied to this data (Horoufchin et al., 2011. In this account, variation of the RCI is thought to influence the temporal distinctiveness (TD of episodic traces in memory, thus affecting their retrieval probability. This can affect performance as retrieval probability influences response time: If retrieval succeeds, responding is fast due to positive priming; if retrieval fails, responding is slow, due to having to perform the task via a slow algorithmic process. This account---and a recent formal model (Grange & Cross, 2015---makes the strong prediction that all RTs are a mixture of one of two processes: a fast process when retrieval succeeds, and a slow process when retrieval fails. The present paper assesses the evidence for this mixture-distribution assumption in TD data. In a first section, statistical evidence for mixture-distributions is found using the fixed-point property test. In a second section, a mathematical process model with mixture-distributions at its core is fitted to the response time distribution data. Both approaches provide good evidence in support of the mixture-distribution assumption, and thus support temporal distinctiveness accounts of the data.

An Extension to Deng's Entropy in the Open World Assumption with an Application in Sensor Data Fusion.

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Yongchuan; Zhou, Deyun; Chan, Felix T S

2018-06-11

Quantification of uncertain degree in the Dempster-Shafer evidence theory (DST) framework with belief entropy is still an open issue, even a blank field for the open world assumption. Currently, the existed uncertainty measures in the DST framework are limited to the closed world where the frame of discernment (FOD) is assumed to be complete. To address this issue, this paper focuses on extending a belief entropy to the open world by considering the uncertain information represented as the FOD and the nonzero mass function of the empty set simultaneously. An extension to Deng’s entropy in the open world assumption (EDEOW) is proposed as a generalization of the Deng’s entropy and it can be degenerated to the Deng entropy in the closed world wherever necessary. In order to test the reasonability and effectiveness of the extended belief entropy, an EDEOW-based information fusion approach is proposed and applied to sensor data fusion under uncertainty circumstance. The experimental results verify the usefulness and applicability of the extended measure as well as the modified sensor data fusion method. In addition, a few open issues still exist in the current work: the necessary properties for a belief entropy in the open world assumption, whether there exists a belief entropy that satisfies all the existed properties, and what is the most proper fusion frame for sensor data fusion under uncertainty.

How do rigid-lid assumption affect LES simulation results at high Reynolds flows?

Science.gov (United States)

Khosronejad, Ali; Farhadzadeh, Ali; SBU Collaboration

2017-11-01

This research is motivated by the work of Kara et al., JHE, 2015. They employed LES to model flow around a model of abutment at a Re number of 27,000. They showed that first-order turbulence characteristics obtained by rigid-lid (RL) assumption compares fairly well with those of level-set (LS) method. Concerning the second-order statistics, however, their simulation results showed a significant dependence on the method used to describe the free surface. This finding can have important implications for open channel flow modeling. The Reynolds number for typical open channel flows, however, could be much larger than that of Kara et al.'s test case. Herein, we replicate the reported study by augmenting the geometric and hydraulic scales to reach a Re number of one order of magnitude larger ( 200,000). The Virtual Flow Simulator (VFS-Geophysics) model in its LES mode is used to simulate the test case using both RL and LS methods. The computational results are validated using measured flow and free-surface data from our laboratory experiments. Our goal is to investigate the effects of RL assumption on both first-order and second order statistics at high Reynolds numbers that occur in natural waterways. Acknowledgment: Computational resources are provided by the Center of Excellence in Wireless & Information Technology (CEWIT) of Stony Brook University.

Incorporating assumption deviation risk in quantitative risk assessments: A semi-quantitative approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khorsandi, Jahon; Aven, Terje

2017-01-01

Quantitative risk assessments (QRAs) of complex engineering systems are based on numerous assumptions and expert judgments, as there is limited information available for supporting the analysis. In addition to sensitivity analyses, the concept of assumption deviation risk has been suggested as a means for explicitly considering the risk related to inaccuracies and deviations in the assumptions, which can significantly impact the results of the QRAs. However, challenges remain for its practical implementation, considering the number of assumptions and magnitude of deviations to be considered. This paper presents an approach for integrating an assumption deviation risk analysis as part of QRAs. The approach begins with identifying the safety objectives for which the QRA aims to support, and then identifies critical assumptions with respect to ensuring the objectives are met. Key issues addressed include the deviations required to violate the safety objectives, the uncertainties related to the occurrence of such events, and the strength of knowledge supporting the assessments. Three levels of assumptions are considered, which include assumptions related to the system's structural and operational characteristics, the effectiveness of the established barriers, as well as the consequence analysis process. The approach is illustrated for the case of an offshore installation. - Highlights: • An approach for assessing the risk of deviations in QRA assumptions is presented. • Critical deviations and uncertainties related to their occurrence are addressed. • The analysis promotes critical thinking about the foundation and results of QRAs. • The approach is illustrated for the case of an offshore installation.

Semi-Supervised Transductive Hot Spot Predictor Working on Multiple Assumptions

KAUST Repository

Wang, Jim Jing-Yan

2014-05-23

Protein-protein interactions are critically dependent on just a few residues (“hot spots”) at the interfaces. Hot spots make a dominant contribution to the binding free energy and if mutated they can disrupt the interaction. As mutagenesis studies require significant experimental efforts, there exists a need for accurate and reliable computational hot spot prediction methods. Compared to the supervised hot spot prediction algorithms, the semi-supervised prediction methods can take into consideration both the labeled and unlabeled residues in the dataset during the prediction procedure. The transductive support vector machine has been utilized for this task and demonstrated a better prediction performance. To the best of our knowledge, however, none of the transductive semi-supervised algorithms takes all the three semisupervised assumptions, i.e., smoothness, cluster and manifold assumptions, together into account during learning. In this paper, we propose a novel semi-supervised method for hot spot residue prediction, by considering all the three semisupervised assumptions using nonlinear models. Our algorithm, IterPropMCS, works in an iterative manner. In each iteration, the algorithm first propagates the labels of the labeled residues to the unlabeled ones, along the shortest path between them on a graph, assuming that they lie on a nonlinear manifold. Then it selects the most confident residues as the labeled ones for the next iteration, according to the cluster and smoothness criteria, which is implemented by a nonlinear density estimator. Experiments on a benchmark dataset, using protein structure-based features, demonstrate that our approach is effective in predicting hot spots and compares favorably to other available methods. The results also show that our method outperforms the state-of-the-art transductive learning methods.

Emerging Assumptions About Organization Design, Knowledge And Action

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alan Meyer

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Participants in the Organizational Design Community’s 2013 Annual Conference faced the challenge of “making organization design knowledge actionable.”  This essay summarizes the opinions and insights participants shared during the conference.  I reflect on these ideas, connect them to recent scholarly thinking about organization design, and conclude that seeking to make design knowledge actionable is nudging the community away from an assumption set based upon linearity and equilibrium, and toward a new set of assumptions based on emergence, self-organization, and non-linearity.

Matrix Diffusion for Performance Assessment - Experimental Evidence, Modelling Assumptions and Open Issues

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jakob, A

2004-07-01

In this report a comprehensive overview on the matrix diffusion of solutes in fractured crystalline rocks is presented. Some examples from observations in crystalline bedrock are used to illustrate that matrix diffusion indeed acts on various length scales. Fickian diffusion is discussed in detail followed by some considerations on rock porosity. Due to the fact that the dual-porosity medium model is a very common and versatile method for describing solute transport in fractured porous media, the transport equations and the fundamental assumptions, approximations and simplifications are discussed in detail. There is a variety of geometrical aspects, processes and events which could influence matrix diffusion. The most important of these, such as, e.g., the effect of the flow-wetted fracture surface, channelling and the limited extent of the porous rock for matrix diffusion etc., are addressed. In a further section open issues and unresolved problems related to matrix diffusion are mentioned. Since matrix diffusion is one of the key retarding processes in geosphere transport of dissolved radionuclide species, matrix diffusion was consequently taken into account in past performance assessments of radioactive waste repositories in crystalline host rocks. Some issues regarding matrix diffusion are site-specific while others are independent of the specific situation of a planned repository for radioactive wastes. Eight different performance assessments from Finland, Sweden and Switzerland were considered with the aim of finding out how matrix diffusion was addressed, and whether a consistent picture emerges regarding the varying methodology of the different radioactive waste organisations. In the final section of the report some conclusions are drawn and an outlook is given. An extensive bibliography provides the reader with the key papers and reports related to matrix diffusion. (author)

Breakdown of Hydrostatic Assumption in Tidal Channel with Scour Holes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chunyan Li

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Hydrostatic condition is a common assumption in tidal and subtidal motions in oceans and estuaries.. Theories with this assumption have been largely successful. However, there is no definite criteria separating the hydrostatic from the non-hydrostatic regimes in real applications because real problems often times have multiple scales. With increased refinement of high resolution numerical models encompassing smaller and smaller spatial scales, the need for non-hydrostatic models is increasing. To evaluate the vertical motion over bathymetric changes in tidal channels and assess the validity of the hydrostatic approximation, we conducted observations using a vessel-based acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP. Observations were made along a straight channel 18 times over two scour holes of 25 m deep, separated by 330 m, in and out of an otherwise flat 8 m deep tidal pass leading to the Lake Pontchartrain over a time period of 8 hours covering part of the diurnal tidal cycle. Out of the 18 passages over the scour holes, 11 of them showed strong upwelling and downwelling which resulted in the breakdown of hydrostatic condition. The maximum observed vertical velocity was ~ 0.35 m/s, a high value in a tidal channel, and the estimated vertical acceleration reached a high value of 1.76×10-2 m/s2. Analysis demonstrated that the barotropic non-hydrostatic acceleration was dominant. The cause of the non-hydrostatic flow was the that over steep slopes. This demonstrates that in such a system, the bathymetric variation can lead to the breakdown of hydrostatic conditions. Models with hydrostatic restrictions will not be able to correctly capture the dynamics in such a system with significant bathymetric variations particularly during strong tidal currents.

An Agent-Based Model of School Closing in Under-Vacccinated Communities During Measles Outbreaks.

Science.gov (United States)

Getz, Wayne M; Carlson, Colin; Dougherty, Eric; Porco Francis, Travis C; Salter, Richard

2016-04-01

The winter 2014-15 measles outbreak in the US represents a significant crisis in the emergence of a functionally extirpated pathogen. Conclusively linking this outbreak to decreases in the measles/mumps/rubella (MMR) vaccination rate (driven by anti-vaccine sentiment) is critical to motivating MMR vaccination. We used the NOVA modeling platform to build a stochastic, spatially-structured, individual-based SEIR model of outbreaks, under the assumption that R 0 ≈ 7 for measles. We show this implies that herd immunity requires vaccination coverage of greater than approximately 85%. We used a network structured version of our NOVA model that involved two communities, one at the relatively low coverage of 85% coverage and one at the higher coverage of 95%, both of which had 400-student schools embedded, as well as students occasionally visiting superspreading sites (e.g. high-density theme parks, cinemas, etc.). These two vaccination coverage levels are within the range of values occurring across California counties. Transmission rates at schools and superspreading sites were arbitrarily set to respectively 5 and 15 times background community rates. Simulations of our model demonstrate that a 'send unvaccinated students home' policy in low coverage counties is extremely effective at shutting down outbreaks of measles.

Questioning Engelhardt's assumptions in Bioethics and Secular Humanism.

Science.gov (United States)

Ahmadi Nasab Emran, Shahram

2016-06-01

In Bioethics and Secular Humanism: The Search for a Common Morality, Tristram Engelhardt examines various possibilities of finding common ground for moral discourse among people from different traditions and concludes their futility. In this paper I will argue that many of the assumptions on which Engelhardt bases his conclusion about the impossibility of a content-full secular bioethics are problematic. By starting with the notion of moral strangers, there is no possibility, by definition, for a content-full moral discourse among moral strangers. It means that there is circularity in starting the inquiry with a definition of moral strangers, which implies that they do not share enough moral background or commitment to an authority to allow for reaching a moral agreement, and concluding that content-full morality is impossible among moral strangers. I argue that assuming traditions as solid and immutable structures that insulate people across their boundaries is problematic. Another questionable assumption in Engelhardt's work is the idea that religious and philosophical traditions provide content-full moralities. As the cardinal assumption in Engelhardt's review of the various alternatives for a content-full moral discourse among moral strangers, I analyze his foundationalist account of moral reasoning and knowledge and indicate the possibility of other ways of moral knowledge, besides the foundationalist one. Then, I examine Engelhardt's view concerning the futility of attempts at justifying a content-full secular bioethics, and indicate how the assumptions have shaped Engelhardt's critique of the alternatives for the possibility of content-full secular bioethics.

Critically Challenging Some Assumptions in HRD

Science.gov (United States)

O'Donnell, David; McGuire, David; Cross, Christine

2006-01-01

This paper sets out to critically challenge five interrelated assumptions prominent in the (human resource development) HRD literature. These relate to: the exploitation of labour in enhancing shareholder value; the view that employees are co-contributors to and co-recipients of HRD benefits; the distinction between HRD and human resource…

Drug policy in sport: hidden assumptions and inherent contradictions.

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Aaron C T; Stewart, Bob

2008-03-01

This paper considers the assumptions underpinning the current drugs-in-sport policy arrangements. We examine the assumptions and contradictions inherent in the policy approach, paying particular attention to the evidence that supports different policy arrangements. We find that the current anti-doping policy of the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) contains inconsistencies and ambiguities. WADA's policy position is predicated upon four fundamental principles; first, the need for sport to set a good example; secondly, the necessity of ensuring a level playing field; thirdly, the responsibility to protect the health of athletes; and fourthly, the importance of preserving the integrity of sport. A review of the evidence, however, suggests that sport is a problematic institution when it comes to setting a good example for the rest of society. Neither is it clear that sport has an inherent or essential integrity that can only be sustained through regulation. Furthermore, it is doubtful that WADA's anti-doping policy is effective in maintaining a level playing field, or is the best means of protecting the health of athletes. The WADA anti-doping policy is based too heavily on principals of minimising drug use, and gives insufficient weight to the minimisation of drug-related harms. As a result drug-related harms are being poorly managed in sport. We argue that anti-doping policy in sport would benefit from placing greater emphasis on a harm minimisation model.

The Arundel Assumption And Revision Of Some Large-Scale Maps ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The rather common practice of stating or using the Arundel Assumption without reference to appropriate mapping standards (except mention of its use for graphical plotting) is a major cause of inaccuracies in map revision. This paper describes an investigation to ascertain the applicability of the Assumption to the revision of ...

Modelling microstructural evolution under irradiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tikare, V.

2015-01-01

Microstructural evolution of materials under irradiation is characterised by some unique features that are not typically present in other application environments. While much understanding has been achieved by experimental studies, the ability to model this microstructural evolution for complex materials states and environmental conditions not only enhances understanding, it also enables prediction of materials behaviour under conditions that are difficult to duplicate experimentally. Furthermore, reliable models enable designing materials for improved engineering performance for their respective applications. Thus, development and application of mesoscale microstructural model are important for advancing nuclear materials technologies. In this chapter, the application of the Potts model to nuclear materials will be reviewed and demonstrated, as an example of microstructural evolution processes. (author)

The philosophy and assumptions underlying exposure limits for ionising radiation, inorganic lead, asbestos and noise

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Akber, R.

1996-01-01

Full text: A review of the literature relating to exposure to, and exposure limits for, ionising radiation, inorganic lead, asbestos and noise was undertaken. The four hazards were chosen because they were insidious and ubiquitous, were potential hazards in both occupational and environmental settings and had early and late effects depending on dose and dose rate. For all four hazards, the effect of the hazard was enhanced by other exposures such as smoking or organic solvents. In the cases of inorganic lead and noise, there were documented health effects which affected a significant percentage of the exposed populations at or below the [effective] exposure limits. This was not the case for ionising radiation and asbestos. None of the exposure limits considered exposure to multiple mutagens/carcinogens in the calculation of risk. Ionising radiation was the only one of the hazards to have a model of all likely exposures, occupational, environmental and medical, as the basis for the exposure limits. The other three considered occupational exposure in isolation from environmental exposure. Inorganic lead and noise had economic considerations underlying the exposure limits and the exposure limits for asbestos were based on the current limit of detection. All four hazards had many variables associated with exposure, including idiosyncratic factors, that made modelling the risk very complex. The scientific idea of a time weighted average based on an eight hour day, and forty hour week on which the exposure limits for lead, asbestos and noise were based was underpinned by neither empirical evidence or scientific hypothesis. The methodology of the ACGIH in the setting of limits later brought into law, may have been unduly influenced by the industries most closely affected by those limits. Measuring exposure over part of an eight hour day and extrapolating to model exposure over the longer term is not the most effective way to model exposure. The statistical techniques used

Seabrook simulator model upgrade: Implementation and validation of two-phase, nonequilibrium RCS and steam generator models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kao, S.

1990-01-01

A number of deficiencies in the original RCS and steam generator models on the Seabrook simulator were found to give unrealistic results under some off-normal and accident conditions. These deficiencies are attributed to the simplistic assumptions used in the original models, such as the homogeneous, equilibrium equations used in the pressurizer and steam generator models, and the single-phase flow model used in the RCS thermal-hydraulic model. To improve the fidelity of the simulator, efforts have been made to upgrade the RCS and steam generator models to include two-phase, nonequilibrium features. In the new RCS model, the following major assumptions are used to derive the finite difference form of the conservation equations: a donor-cell differencing scheme is adopted to allow flow reversal; a single pressure is used to evaluate properties; a single mass flow rate is assumed in each loop; enthalpy is assumed to vary linearly within each control volume; a homogeneous flow is assumed under two-phase conditions. The pressurizer is divided into a vapor region and a liquid region, each of which is represented by a set of mass and energy conservation equations. Interfacial mass and energy exchange mechanisms (condensation and flashing), thermal interactions between the vessel and fluids, and thermal nonequilibrium between the phases are included in the pressurizer model. The steam generator is divided into the vapor dome, riser, and downcomer regions. The assumptions applied are similar to those of the RCS and pressurizer models. A momentum model is incorporated to calculate the recirculation flow and simulate the downcomer level shrink/swell phenomenon. The new RCS and steam generator models are validated by comparing the simulator calculations against sister plant data and FSAR vendor analysis. The results show the new models give realistic and reliable calculations under off-normal and accident conditions

Consistency of the MLE under mixture models

OpenAIRE

Chen, Jiahua

2016-01-01

The large-sample properties of likelihood-based statistical inference under mixture models have received much attention from statisticians. Although the consistency of the nonparametric MLE is regarded as a standard conclusion, many researchers ignore the precise conditions required on the mixture model. An incorrect claim of consistency can lead to false conclusions even if the mixture model under investigation seems well behaved. Under a finite normal mixture model, for instance, the consis...

An Extension to Deng’s Entropy in the Open World Assumption with an Application in Sensor Data Fusion

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yongchuan Tang

2018-06-01

Full Text Available Quantification of uncertain degree in the Dempster-Shafer evidence theory (DST framework with belief entropy is still an open issue, even a blank field for the open world assumption. Currently, the existed uncertainty measures in the DST framework are limited to the closed world where the frame of discernment (FOD is assumed to be complete. To address this issue, this paper focuses on extending a belief entropy to the open world by considering the uncertain information represented as the FOD and the nonzero mass function of the empty set simultaneously. An extension to Deng’s entropy in the open world assumption (EDEOW is proposed as a generalization of the Deng’s entropy and it can be degenerated to the Deng entropy in the closed world wherever necessary. In order to test the reasonability and effectiveness of the extended belief entropy, an EDEOW-based information fusion approach is proposed and applied to sensor data fusion under uncertainty circumstance. The experimental results verify the usefulness and applicability of the extended measure as well as the modified sensor data fusion method. In addition, a few open issues still exist in the current work: the necessary properties for a belief entropy in the open world assumption, whether there exists a belief entropy that satisfies all the existed properties, and what is the most proper fusion frame for sensor data fusion under uncertainty.

Causal Mediation Analysis: Warning! Assumptions Ahead

Science.gov (United States)

Keele, Luke

2015-01-01

In policy evaluations, interest may focus on why a particular treatment works. One tool for understanding why treatments work is causal mediation analysis. In this essay, I focus on the assumptions needed to estimate mediation effects. I show that there is no "gold standard" method for the identification of causal mediation effects. In…

Testing legal assumptions regarding the effects of dancer nudity and proximity to patron on erotic expression.

Science.gov (United States)

Linz, D; Blumenthal, E; Donnerstein, E; Kunkel, D; Shafer, B J; Lichtenstein, A

2000-10-01

A field experiment was conducted in order to test the assumptions by the Supreme Court in Barnes v. Glen Theatre, Inc. (1991) and the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals in Colacurcio v. City of Kent (1999) that government restrictions on dancer nudity and dancer-patron proximity do not affect the content of messages conveyed by erotic dancers. A field experiment was conducted in which dancer nudity (nude vs. partial clothing) and dancer-patron proximity (4 feet; 6 in.; 6 in. plus touch) were manipulated under controlled conditions in an adult night club. After male patrons viewed the dances, they completed questionnaires assessing affective states and reception of erotic, relational intimacy, and social messages. Contrary to the assumptions of the courts, the results showed that the content of messages conveyed by the dancers was significantly altered by restrictions placed on dancer nudity and dancer-patron proximity. These findings are interpreted in terms of social psychological responses to nudity and communication theories of nonverbal behavior. The legal implications of rejecting the assumptions made by the courts in light of the findings of this study are discussed. Finally, suggestions are made for future research.

A general consumer-resource population model

Science.gov (United States)

Lafferty, Kevin D.; DeLeo, Giulio; Briggs, Cheryl J.; Dobson, Andrew P.; Gross, Thilo; Kuris, Armand M.

2015-01-01

Food-web dynamics arise from predator-prey, parasite-host, and herbivore-plant interactions. Models for such interactions include up to three consumer activity states (questing, attacking, consuming) and up to four resource response states (susceptible, exposed, ingested, resistant). Articulating these states into a general model allows for dissecting, comparing, and deriving consumer-resource models. We specify this general model for 11 generic consumer strategies that group mathematically into predators, parasites, and micropredators and then derive conditions for consumer success, including a universal saturating functional response. We further show how to use this framework to create simple models with a common mathematical lineage and transparent assumptions. Underlying assumptions, missing elements, and composite parameters are revealed when classic consumer-resource models are derived from the general model.

A utility-theoretic model for QALYs and willingness to pay.

Science.gov (United States)

Klose, Thomas

2003-01-01

Despite the widespread use of quality-adjusted life years (QALY) in economic evaluation studies, their utility-theoretic foundation remains unclear. A model for preferences over health, money, and time is presented in this paper. Under the usual assumptions of the original QALY-model, an additive separable presentation of the utilities in different periods exists. In contrast to the usual assumption that QALY-weights do solely depend on aspects of health-related quality of life, wealth-standardized QALY-weights might vary with the wealth level in the presented extension of the original QALY-model resulting in an inconsistent measurement of QALYs. Further assumptions are presented to make the measurement of QALYs consistent with lifetime preferences over health and money. Even under these strict assumptions, QALYs and WTP (which also can be defined in this utility-theoretic model) are not equivalent preference-based measures of the effects of health technologies on an individual level. The results suggest that the individual WTP per QALY can depend on the magnitude of the QALY-gain as well as on the disease burden, when health influences the marginal utility of wealth. Further research seems to be indicated on this structural aspect of preferences over health and wealth and to quantify its impact. Copyright 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Stable isotopes and elasmobranchs: tissue types, methods, applications and assumptions.

Science.gov (United States)

Hussey, N E; MacNeil, M A; Olin, J A; McMeans, B C; Kinney, M J; Chapman, D D; Fisk, A T

2012-04-01

Stable-isotope analysis (SIA) can act as a powerful ecological tracer with which to examine diet, trophic position and movement, as well as more complex questions pertaining to community dynamics and feeding strategies or behaviour among aquatic organisms. With major advances in the understanding of the methodological approaches and assumptions of SIA through dedicated experimental work in the broader literature coupled with the inherent difficulty of studying typically large, highly mobile marine predators, SIA is increasingly being used to investigate the ecology of elasmobranchs (sharks, skates and rays). Here, the current state of SIA in elasmobranchs is reviewed, focusing on available tissues for analysis, methodological issues relating to the effects of lipid extraction and urea, the experimental dynamics of isotopic incorporation, diet-tissue discrimination factors, estimating trophic position, diet and mixing models and individual specialization and niche-width analyses. These areas are discussed in terms of assumptions made when applying SIA to the study of elasmobranch ecology and the requirement that investigators standardize analytical approaches. Recommendations are made for future SIA experimental work that would improve understanding of stable-isotope dynamics and advance their application in the study of sharks, skates and rays. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology © 2012 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Modeling the Pathophysiology of Phonotraumatic Vocal Hyperfunction with a Triangular Glottal Model of the Vocal Folds

Science.gov (United States)

Galindo, Gabriel E.; Peterson, Sean D.; Erath, Byron D.; Castro, Christian; Hillman, Robert E.; Zañartu, Matías

2017-01-01

Purpose: Our goal was to test prevailing assumptions about the underlying biomechanical and aeroacoustic mechanisms associated with phonotraumatic lesions of the vocal folds using a numerical lumped-element model of voice production. Method: A numerical model with a triangular glottis, posterior glottal opening, and arytenoid posturing is…

Expanding the 5E Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Eisenkraft, Arthur

2003-01-01

Amends the current 5E learning cycle and instructional model to a 7E model. Changes ensure that instructors do not omit crucial elements for learning from their lessons while under the incorrect assumption that they are meeting the requirements of the learning cycle. The proposed 7E model includes: (1) engage; (2) explore; (3) explain; (4) elicit;…

Evolution of Requirements and Assumptions for Future Exploration Missions

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, Molly; Sargusingh, Miriam; Perry, Jay

2017-01-01

NASA programs are maturing technologies, systems, and architectures to enabling future exploration missions. To increase fidelity as technologies mature, developers must make assumptions that represent the requirements of a future program. Multiple efforts have begun to define these requirements, including team internal assumptions, planning system integration for early demonstrations, and discussions between international partners planning future collaborations. For many detailed life support system requirements, existing NASA documents set limits of acceptable values, but a future vehicle may be constrained in other ways, and select a limited range of conditions. Other requirements are effectively set by interfaces or operations, and may be different for the same technology depending on whether the hard-ware is a demonstration system on the International Space Station, or a critical component of a future vehicle. This paper highlights key assumptions representing potential life support requirements and explanations of the driving scenarios, constraints, or other issues that drive them.

Changing Assumptions and Progressive Change in Theories of Strategic Organization

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Foss, Nicolai J.; Hallberg, Niklas L.

2017-01-01

are often decoupled from the results of empirical testing, changes in assumptions seem closely intertwined with theoretical progress. Using the case of the resource-based view, we suggest that progressive change in theories of strategic organization may come about as a result of scholarly debate and dispute......A commonly held view is that strategic organization theories progress as a result of a Popperian process of bold conjectures and systematic refutations. However, our field also witnesses vibrant debates or disputes about the specific assumptions that our theories rely on, and although these debates...... over what constitutes proper assumptions—even in the absence of corroborating or falsifying empirical evidence. We also discuss how changing assumptions may drive future progress in the resource-based view....

Clinical review: Moral assumptions and the process of organ donation in the intensive care unit

OpenAIRE

Streat, Stephen

2004-01-01

The objective of the present article is to review moral assumptions underlying organ donation in the intensive care unit. Data sources used include personal experience, and a Medline search and a non-Medline search of relevant English-language literature. The study selection included articles concerning organ donation. All data were extracted and analysed by the author. In terms of data synthesis, a rational, utilitarian moral perspective dominates, and has captured and circumscribed, the lan...

Agricultural livelihoods in coastal Bangladesh under climate and environmental change--a model framework.

Science.gov (United States)

Lázár, Attila N; Clarke, Derek; Adams, Helen; Akanda, Abdur Razzaque; Szabo, Sylvia; Nicholls, Robert J; Matthews, Zoe; Begum, Dilruba; Saleh, Abul Fazal M; Abedin, Md Anwarul; Payo, Andres; Streatfield, Peter Kim; Hutton, Craig; Mondal, M Shahjahan; Moslehuddin, Abu Zofar Md

2015-06-01

Coastal Bangladesh experiences significant poverty and hazards today and is highly vulnerable to climate and environmental change over the coming decades. Coastal stakeholders are demanding information to assist in the decision making processes, including simulation models to explore how different interventions, under different plausible future socio-economic and environmental scenarios, could alleviate environmental risks and promote development. Many existing simulation models neglect the complex interdependencies between the socio-economic and environmental system of coastal Bangladesh. Here an integrated approach has been proposed to develop a simulation model to support agriculture and poverty-based analysis and decision-making in coastal Bangladesh. In particular, we show how a simulation model of farmer's livelihoods at the household level can be achieved. An extended version of the FAO's CROPWAT agriculture model has been integrated with a downscaled regional demography model to simulate net agriculture profit. This is used together with a household income-expenses balance and a loans logical tree to simulate the evolution of food security indicators and poverty levels. Modelling identifies salinity and temperature stress as limiting factors to crop productivity and fertilisation due to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations as a reinforcing factor. The crop simulation results compare well with expected outcomes but also reveal some unexpected behaviours. For example, under current model assumptions, temperature is more important than salinity for crop production. The agriculture-based livelihood and poverty simulations highlight the critical significance of debt through informal and formal loans set at such levels as to persistently undermine the well-being of agriculture-dependent households. Simulations also indicate that progressive approaches to agriculture (i.e. diversification) might not provide the clear economic benefit from the perspective of

Model specification in oral health-related quality of life research.

Science.gov (United States)

Kieffer, Jacobien M; Verrips, Erik; Hoogstraten, Johan

2009-10-01

The aim of this study was to analyze conventional wisdom regarding the construction and analysis of oral health-related quality of life (OHRQoL) questionnaires and to outline statistical complications. Most methods used for developing and analyzing questionnaires, such as factor analysis and Cronbach's alpha, presume psychological constructs to be latent, inferring a reflective measurement model with the underlying assumption of local independence. Local independence implies that the latent variable explains why the variables observed are related. Many OHRQoL questionnaires are analyzed as if they were based on a reflective measurement model; local independence is thus assumed. This assumption requires these questionnaires to consist solely of items that reflect, instead of determine, OHRQoL. The tenability of this assumption is the main topic of the present study. It is argued that OHRQoL questionnaires are a mix of both a formative measurement model and a reflective measurement model, thus violating the assumption of local independence. The implications are discussed.

Investigating the Assumptions of Uses and Gratifications Research

Science.gov (United States)

Lometti, Guy E.; And Others

1977-01-01

Discusses a study designed to determine empirically the gratifications sought from communication channels and to test the assumption that individuals differentiate channels based on gratifications. (MH)

Assessing framing assumptions in quantitative health impact assessments: a housing intervention example.

Science.gov (United States)

Mesa-Frias, Marco; Chalabi, Zaid; Foss, Anna M

2013-09-01

Health impact assessment (HIA) is often used to determine ex ante the health impact of an environmental policy or an environmental intervention. Underpinning any HIA is the framing assumption, which defines the causal pathways mapping environmental exposures to health outcomes. The sensitivity of the HIA to the framing assumptions is often ignored. A novel method based on fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) is developed to quantify the framing assumptions in the assessment stage of a HIA, and is then applied to a housing intervention (tightening insulation) as a case-study. Framing assumptions of the case-study were identified through a literature search of Ovid Medline (1948-2011). The FCM approach was used to identify the key variables that have the most influence in a HIA. Changes in air-tightness, ventilation, indoor air quality and mould/humidity have been identified as having the most influence on health. The FCM approach is widely applicable and can be used to inform the formulation of the framing assumptions in any quantitative HIA of environmental interventions. We argue that it is necessary to explore and quantify framing assumptions prior to conducting a detailed quantitative HIA during the assessment stage. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Avalanche Hypothesis and Compression of Morbidity: Testing Assumptions through Cohort-Sequential Analysis.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jordan Silberman

Full Text Available The compression of morbidity model posits a breakpoint in the adult lifespan that separates an initial period of relative health from a subsequent period of ever increasing morbidity. Researchers often assume that such a breakpoint exists; however, this assumption is hitherto untested.To test the assumption that a breakpoint exists--which we term a morbidity tipping point--separating a period of relative health from a subsequent deterioration in health status. An analogous tipping point for healthcare costs was also investigated.Four years of adults' (N = 55,550 morbidity and costs data were retrospectively analyzed. Data were collected in Pittsburgh, PA between 2006 and 2009; analyses were performed in Rochester, NY and Ann Arbor, MI in 2012 and 2013. Cohort-sequential and hockey stick regression models were used to characterize long-term trajectories and tipping points, respectively, for both morbidity and costs.Morbidity increased exponentially with age (P<.001. A morbidity tipping point was observed at age 45.5 (95% CI, 41.3-49.7. An exponential trajectory was also observed for costs (P<.001, with a costs tipping point occurring at age 39.5 (95% CI, 32.4-46.6. Following their respective tipping points, both morbidity and costs increased substantially (Ps<.001.Findings support the existence of a morbidity tipping point, confirming an important but untested assumption. This tipping point, however, may occur earlier in the lifespan than is widely assumed. An "avalanche of morbidity" occurred after the morbidity tipping point-an ever increasing rate of morbidity progression. For costs, an analogous tipping point and "avalanche" were observed. The time point at which costs began to increase substantially occurred approximately 6 years before health status began to deteriorate.

A network resource availability model for IEEE802.11a/b-based WLAN carrying different service types

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luo Weizhi

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Operators of integrated wireless systems need to have knowledge of the resource availability in their different access networks to perform efficient admission control and maintain good quality of experience to users. Network availability depends on the access technology and the service types. Resource availability in a WLAN is complex to gather when UDP and TCP services co-exist. Previous study on IEEE802.11a/b derived the achievable throughput under the assumption of inelastic and uniformly distributed traffic. Further study investigated TCP connections and derived a model to calculate the effective transmission rate of packets under the assumption of saturated traffic flows. The assumptions are too stringent; therefore, we developed a model for evaluating WLAN resource availability that tries to narrow the gap to more realistic scenarios. It provides an indication of WLAN resource availability for admitting UDP/TCP requests. This article presents the assumptions, the mathematical formulations, and the effectiveness of our model.

Kinetic analysis and modeling of oleate and ethanol stimulated uranium (VI) bio-reduction in contaminated sediments under sulfate reduction conditions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhang Fan, E-mail: zhangfan@itpcas.ac.cn [Key Laboratory of Tibetan Environment Changes and Land Surface Processes, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, P.O. Box 2871, Beijing 100085 (China); Wu Weimin [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305 (United States); Parker, Jack C. [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37996 (United States); Mehlhorn, Tonia [Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 (United States); Kelly, Shelly D.; Kemner, Kenneth M. [Biosciences Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL 60439 (United States); Zhang, Gengxin [Key Laboratory of Tibetan Environment Changes and Land Surface Processes, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, P.O. Box 2871, Beijing 100085 (China); Schadt, Christopher; Brooks, Scott C. [Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 (United States); Criddle, Craig S. [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305 (United States); Watson, David B. [Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 (United States); Jardine, Philip M. [Biosystems Engineering and Soil Science Department, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37996 (United States)

2010-11-15

Microcosm tests with uranium contaminated sediments were performed to explore the feasibility of using oleate as a slow-release electron donor for U(VI) reduction in comparison to ethanol. Oleate degradation proceeded more slowly than ethanol with acetate produced as an intermediate for both electron donors under a range of initial sulfate concentrations. A kinetic microbial reduction model was developed and implemented to describe and compare the reduction of sulfate and U(VI) with oleate or ethanol. The reaction path model considers detailed oleate/ethanol degradation and the production and consumption of intermediates, acetate and hydrogen. Although significant assumptions are made, the model tracked the major trend of sulfate and U(VI) reduction and describes the successive production and consumption of acetate, concurrent with microbial reduction of aqueous sulfate and U(VI) species. The model results imply that the overall rate of U(VI) bioreduction is influenced by both the degradation rate of organic substrates and consumption rate of intermediate products.

Kinetic analysis and modeling of oleate and ethanol stimulated uranium (VI) bio-reduction in contaminated sediments under sulfate reduction conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Fan; Wu Weimin; Parker, Jack C.; Mehlhorn, Tonia; Kelly, Shelly D.; Kemner, Kenneth M.; Zhang, Gengxin; Schadt, Christopher; Brooks, Scott C.; Criddle, Craig S.; Watson, David B.; Jardine, Philip M.

2010-01-01

Microcosm tests with uranium contaminated sediments were performed to explore the feasibility of using oleate as a slow-release electron donor for U(VI) reduction in comparison to ethanol. Oleate degradation proceeded more slowly than ethanol with acetate produced as an intermediate for both electron donors under a range of initial sulfate concentrations. A kinetic microbial reduction model was developed and implemented to describe and compare the reduction of sulfate and U(VI) with oleate or ethanol. The reaction path model considers detailed oleate/ethanol degradation and the production and consumption of intermediates, acetate and hydrogen. Although significant assumptions are made, the model tracked the major trend of sulfate and U(VI) reduction and describes the successive production and consumption of acetate, concurrent with microbial reduction of aqueous sulfate and U(VI) species. The model results imply that the overall rate of U(VI) bioreduction is influenced by both the degradation rate of organic substrates and consumption rate of intermediate products.

The Emperors sham - wrong assumption that sham needling is sham.

Science.gov (United States)

Lundeberg, Thomas; Lund, Iréne; Näslund, Jan; Thomas, Moolamanil

2008-12-01

During the last five years a large number of randomised controlled clinical trials (RCTs) have been published on the efficacy of acupuncture in different conditions. In most of these studies verum is compared with sham acupuncture. In general both verum and sham have been found to be effective, and often with little reported difference in outcome. This has repeatedly led to the conclusion that acupuncture is no more effective than placebo treatment. However, this conclusion is based on the assumption that sham acupuncture is inert. Since sham acupuncture evidently is merely another form of acupuncture from the physiological perspective, the assumption that sham is sham is incorrect and conclusions based on this assumption are therefore invalid. Clinical guidelines based on such conclusions may therefore exclude suffering patients from valuable treatments.

Modeling intelligent adversaries for terrorism risk assessment: some necessary conditions for adversary models.

Science.gov (United States)

Guikema, Seth

2012-07-01

Intelligent adversary modeling has become increasingly important for risk analysis, and a number of different approaches have been proposed for incorporating intelligent adversaries in risk analysis models. However, these approaches are based on a range of often-implicit assumptions about the desirable properties of intelligent adversary models. This "Perspective" paper aims to further risk analysis for situations involving intelligent adversaries by fostering a discussion of the desirable properties for these models. A set of four basic necessary conditions for intelligent adversary models is proposed and discussed. These are: (1) behavioral accuracy to the degree possible, (2) computational tractability to support decision making, (3) explicit consideration of uncertainty, and (4) ability to gain confidence in the model. It is hoped that these suggested necessary conditions foster discussion about the goals and assumptions underlying intelligent adversary modeling in risk analysis. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Cyclic loading of thick vessels based on the Prager and Armstrong-Frederick kinematic hardening models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mahbadi, H.; Eslami, M.R.

2006-01-01

The aim of this paper is to relate the type of stress category in cyclic loading to ratcheting or shakedown behaviour of the structure. The kinematic hardening theory of plasticity based on the Prager and Armstrong-Frederick models is used to evaluate the cyclic loading behaviour of thick spherical and cylindrical vessels under load and deformation controlled stresses. It is concluded that kinematic hardening based on the Prager model under load and deformation controlled conditions, excluding creep, results in shakedown or reversed plasticity for spherical and cylindrical vessels with the isotropy assumption of the tension/compression curve. Under an anisotropy assumption of the tension/compression curve, this model predicts ratcheting. On the other hand, the Armstrong-Frederick model predicts ratcheting under load controlled cyclic loading and reversed plasticity for deformation controlled stress. The interesting conclusion is that the Armstrong-Frederick model is well capable to predict the experimental data under the assumed type of stresses, wherever experimental data are available

Robust Means Modeling: An Alternative for Hypothesis Testing of Independent Means under Variance Heterogeneity and Nonnormality

Science.gov (United States)

Fan, Weihua; Hancock, Gregory R.

2012-01-01

This study proposes robust means modeling (RMM) approaches for hypothesis testing of mean differences for between-subjects designs in order to control the biasing effects of nonnormality and variance inequality. Drawing from structural equation modeling (SEM), the RMM approaches make no assumption of variance homogeneity and employ robust…

Estimation of kinematic parameters in CALIFA galaxies: no-assumption on internal dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

García-Lorenzo, B.; Barrera-Ballesteros, J.; CALIFA Team

2016-06-01

We propose a simple approach to homogeneously estimate kinematic parameters of a broad variety of galaxies (elliptical, spirals, irregulars or interacting systems). This methodology avoids the use of any kinematical model or any assumption on internal dynamics. This simple but novel approach allows us to determine: the frequency of kinematic distortions, systemic velocity, kinematic center, and kinematic position angles which are directly measured from the two dimensional-distributions of radial velocities. We test our analysis tools using the CALIFA Survey

Fair lineups are better than biased lineups and showups, but not because they increase underlying discriminability.

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Andrew M; Wells, Gary L; Lindsay, R C L; Penrod, Steven D

2017-04-01

Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis has recently come in vogue for assessing the underlying discriminability and the applied utility of lineup procedures. Two primary assumptions underlie recommendations that ROC analysis be used to assess the applied utility of lineup procedures: (a) ROC analysis of lineups measures underlying discriminability, and (b) the procedure that produces superior underlying discriminability produces superior applied utility. These same assumptions underlie a recently derived diagnostic-feature detection theory, a theory of discriminability, intended to explain recent patterns observed in ROC comparisons of lineups. We demonstrate, however, that these assumptions are incorrect when ROC analysis is applied to lineups. We also demonstrate that a structural phenomenon of lineups, differential filler siphoning, and not the psychological phenomenon of diagnostic-feature detection, explains why lineups are superior to showups and why fair lineups are superior to biased lineups. In the process of our proofs, we show that computational simulations have assumed, unrealistically, that all witnesses share exactly the same decision criteria. When criterial variance is included in computational models, differential filler siphoning emerges. The result proves dissociation between ROC curves and underlying discriminability: Higher ROC curves for lineups than for showups and for fair than for biased lineups despite no increase in underlying discriminability. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Comparison of models discribing cladding deformations during LOCA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chakraborty, A.K.; Zipper, R.

1981-05-01

This report compares the important models for the determination of cladding deformations during LOCA. In addition to the comparisons of underlying assumptions of different models the same is done for the coefficients applied for the models. In order to assess the predictive capability of the models the calculated results are compared with the experimental results of the individual claddings. It was found out that the results of temperature ramp tests could be calculated better than that of the pressure ramp tests. The calculations revealed that even with the simplified assumption of the model used in TESPA the agreement of the calculated results with those of model NORA was relatively good. (orig.) [de

The homogeneous marginal utility of income assumption

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Demuynck, T.

2015-01-01

We develop a test to verify if every agent from a population of heterogeneous consumers has the same marginal utility of income function. This homogeneous marginal utility of income assumption is often (implicitly) used in applied demand studies because it has nice aggregation properties and

Recognising the Effects of Costing Assumptions in Educational Business Simulation Games

Science.gov (United States)

Eckardt, Gordon; Selen, Willem; Wynder, Monte

2015-01-01

Business simulations are a powerful way to provide experiential learning that is focussed, controlled, and concentrated. Inherent in any simulation, however, are numerous assumptions that determine feedback, and hence the lessons learnt. In this conceptual paper we describe some common cost assumptions that are implicit in simulation design and…

Examination of Conservatism in Ground-level Source Release Assumption when Performing Consequence Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Sung-yeop; Lim, Ho-Gon [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2015-10-15

One of these assumptions frequently assumed is the assumption of ground-level source release. The user manual of a consequence analysis software HotSpot is mentioning like below: 'If you cannot estimate or calculate the effective release height, the actual physical release height (height of the stack) or zero for ground-level release should be used. This will usually yield a conservative estimate, (i.e., larger radiation doses for all downwind receptors, etc).' This recommendation could be agreed in aspect of conservatism but quantitative examination of the effect of this assumption to the result of consequence analysis is necessary. The source terms of Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP accident have been estimated by several studies using inverse modeling and one of the biggest sources of the difference between the results of these studies was different effective source release height assumed by each studies. It supports the importance of the quantitative examination of the influence by release height. Sensitivity analysis of the effective release height of radioactive sources was performed and the influence to the total effective dose was quantitatively examined in this study. Above 20% difference is maintained even at longer distances, when we compare the dose between the result assuming ground-level release and the results assuming other effective plume height. It means that we cannot ignore the influence of ground-level source assumption to the latent cancer fatality estimations. In addition, the assumption of ground-level release fundamentally prevents detailed analysis including diffusion of plume from effective plume height to the ground even though the influence of it is relatively lower in longer distance. When we additionally consider the influence of surface roughness, situations could be more serious. The ground level dose could be highly over-estimated in short downwind distance at the NPP sites which have low surface roughness such as Barakah site in

The sensitivity of the ESA DELTA model

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, C.; Walker, R.; Klinkrad, H.

Long-term debris environment models play a vital role in furthering our understanding of the future debris environment, and in aiding the determination of a strategy to preserve the Earth orbital environment for future use. By their very nature these models have to make certain assumptions to enable informative future projections to be made. Examples of these assumptions include the projection of future traffic, including launch and explosion rates, and the methodology used to simulate break-up events. To ensure a sound basis for future projections, and consequently for assessing the effectiveness of various mitigation measures, it is essential that the sensitivity of these models to variations in key assumptions is examined. The DELTA (Debris Environment Long Term Analysis) model, developed by QinetiQ for the European Space Agency, allows the future projection of the debris environment throughout Earth orbit. Extensive analyses with this model have been performed under the auspices of the ESA Space Debris Mitigation Handbook and following the recent upgrade of the model to DELTA 3.0. This paper draws on these analyses to present the sensitivity of the DELTA model to changes in key model parameters and assumptions. Specifically the paper will address the variation in future traffic rates, including the deployment of satellite constellations, and the variation in the break-up model and criteria used to simulate future explosion and collision events.

Comparative Interpretation of Classical and Keynesian Fiscal Policies (Assumptions, Principles and Primary Opinions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Engin Oner

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Adam Smith being its founder, in the Classical School, which gives prominence to supply and adopts an approach of unbiased finance, the economy is always in a state of full employment equilibrium. In this system of thought, the main philosophy of which is budget balance, that asserts that there is flexibility between prices and wages and regards public debt as an extraordinary instrument, the interference of the state with the economic and social life is frowned upon. In line with the views of the classical thought, the classical fiscal policy is based on three basic assumptions. These are the "Consumer State Assumption", the assumption accepting that "Public Expenditures are Always Ineffectual" and the assumption concerning the "Impartiality of the Taxes and Expenditure Policies Implemented by the State". On the other hand, the Keynesian School founded by John Maynard Keynes, gives prominence to demand, adopts the approach of functional finance, and asserts that cases of underemployment equilibrium and over-employment equilibrium exist in the economy as well as the full employment equilibrium, that problems cannot be solved through the invisible hand, that prices and wages are strict, the interference of the state is essential and at this point fiscal policies have to be utilized effectively.Keynesian fiscal policy depends on three primary assumptions. These are the assumption of "Filter State", the assumption that "public expenditures are sometimes effective and sometimes ineffective or neutral" and the assumption that "the tax, debt and expenditure policies of the state can never be impartial". 

Influence of road network and population demand assumptions in evacuation modeling for distant tsunamis

Science.gov (United States)

Henry, Kevin; Wood, Nathan J.; Frazier, Tim G.

2017-01-01

Tsunami evacuation planning in coastal communities is typically focused on local events where at-risk individuals must move on foot in a matter of minutes to safety. Less attention has been placed on distant tsunamis, where evacuations unfold over several hours, are often dominated by vehicle use and are managed by public safety officials. Traditional traffic simulation models focus on estimating clearance times but often overlook the influence of varying population demand, alternative modes, background traffic, shadow evacuation, and traffic management alternatives. These factors are especially important for island communities with limited egress options to safety. We use the coastal community of Balboa Island, California (USA), as a case study to explore the range of potential clearance times prior to wave arrival for a distant tsunami scenario. We use a first-in–first-out queuing simulation environment to estimate variations in clearance times, given varying assumptions of the evacuating population (demand) and the road network over which they evacuate (supply). Results suggest clearance times are less than wave arrival times for a distant tsunami, except when we assume maximum vehicle usage for residents, employees, and tourists for a weekend scenario. A two-lane bridge to the mainland was the primary traffic bottleneck, thereby minimizing the effect of departure times, shadow evacuations, background traffic, boat-based evacuations, and traffic light timing on overall community clearance time. Reducing vehicular demand generally reduced clearance time, whereas improvements to road capacity had mixed results. Finally, failure to recognize non-residential employee and tourist populations in the vehicle demand substantially underestimated clearance time.

Estimating the global prevalence of inadequate zinc intake from national food balance sheets: effects of methodological assumptions.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K Ryan Wessells

Full Text Available The prevalence of inadequate zinc intake in a population can be estimated by comparing the zinc content of the food supply with the population's theoretical requirement for zinc. However, assumptions regarding the nutrient composition of foods, zinc requirements, and zinc absorption may affect prevalence estimates. These analyses were conducted to: (1 evaluate the effect of varying methodological assumptions on country-specific estimates of the prevalence of dietary zinc inadequacy and (2 generate a model considered to provide the best estimates.National food balance data were obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Zinc and phytate contents of these foods were estimated from three nutrient composition databases. Zinc absorption was predicted using a mathematical model (Miller equation. Theoretical mean daily per capita physiological and dietary requirements for zinc were calculated using recommendations from the Food and Nutrition Board of the Institute of Medicine and the International Zinc Nutrition Consultative Group. The estimated global prevalence of inadequate zinc intake varied between 12-66%, depending on which methodological assumptions were applied. However, country-specific rank order of the estimated prevalence of inadequate intake was conserved across all models (r = 0.57-0.99, P<0.01. A "best-estimate" model, comprised of zinc and phytate data from a composite nutrient database and IZiNCG physiological requirements for absorbed zinc, estimated the global prevalence of inadequate zinc intake to be 17.3%.Given the multiple sources of uncertainty in this method, caution must be taken in the interpretation of the estimated prevalence figures. However, the results of all models indicate that inadequate zinc intake may be fairly common globally. Inferences regarding the relative likelihood of zinc deficiency as a public health problem in different countries can be drawn based on the country

Determining Bounds on Assumption Errors in Operational Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Neal M. Bengtson

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The technique of operational analysis (OA is used in the study of systems performance, mainly for estimating mean values of various measures of interest, such as, number of jobs at a device and response times. The basic principles of operational analysis allow errors in assumptions to be quantified over a time period. The assumptions which are used to derive the operational analysis relationships are studied. Using Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT conditions bounds on error measures of these OA relationships are found. Examples of these bounds are used for representative performance measures to show limits on the difference between true performance values and those estimated by operational analysis relationships. A technique for finding tolerance limits on the bounds is demonstrated with a simulation example.

Consequences of the genetic threshold model for observing partial migration under climate change scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Cobben, Marleen M P; van Noordwijk, Arie J

2017-10-01

Migration is a widespread phenomenon across the animal kingdom as a response to seasonality in environmental conditions. Partially migratory populations are populations that consist of both migratory and residential individuals. Such populations are very common, yet their stability has long been debated. The inheritance of migratory activity is currently best described by the threshold model of quantitative genetics. The inclusion of such a genetic threshold model for migratory behavior leads to a stable zone in time and space of partially migratory populations under a wide range of demographic parameter values, when assuming stable environmental conditions and unlimited genetic diversity. Migratory species are expected to be particularly sensitive to global warming, as arrival at the breeding grounds might be increasingly mistimed as a result of the uncoupling of long-used cues and actual environmental conditions, with decreasing reproduction as a consequence. Here, we investigate the consequences for migratory behavior and the stability of partially migratory populations under five climate change scenarios and the assumption of a genetic threshold value for migratory behavior in an individual-based model. The results show a spatially and temporally stable zone of partially migratory populations after different lengths of time in all scenarios. In the scenarios in which the species expands its range from a particular set of starting populations, the genetic diversity and location at initialization determine the species' colonization speed across the zone of partial migration and therefore across the entire landscape. Abruptly changing environmental conditions after model initialization never caused a qualitative change in phenotype distributions, or complete extinction. This suggests that climate change-induced shifts in species' ranges as well as changes in survival probabilities and reproductive success can be met with flexibility in migratory behavior at the

Acting under interference by other agents with unknown goals

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sønderberg-Madsen, Nicolaj; Jensen, Finn V.

2008-01-01

We consider the situation where two agents try to solve each their own task in a common environment. A general framework for representing that kind of scenario is presented. The framework is used to model the analysis depth of the opponent agent and to determine an optimal policy under various as...... assumptions on analysis depth of the opponent. The framework is applied on a strategic game, Ausgetrickst, and experiments are reported....

Critical assessment of nuclear mass models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moeller, P.; Nix, J.R.

1992-01-01

Some of the physical assumptions underlying various nuclear mass models are discussed. The ability of different mass models to predict new masses that were not taken into account when the models were formulated and their parameters determined is analyzed. The models are also compared with respect to their ability to describe nuclear-structure properties in general. The analysis suggests future directions for mass-model development

Formalization and Analysis of Reasoning by Assumption

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bosse, T.; Jonker, C.M.; Treur, J.

2006-01-01

This article introduces a novel approach for the analysis of the dynamics of reasoning processes and explores its applicability for the reasoning pattern called reasoning by assumption. More specifically, for a case study in the domain of a Master Mind game, it is shown how empirical human reasoning

Psychopatholgy, fundamental assumptions and CD-4 T lymphocyte ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

In addition, we explored whether psychopathology and negative fundamental assumptions in ... Method: Self-rating questionnaires to assess depressive symptoms, ... associated with all participants scoring in the positive range of the FA scale.

Nanostructure evolution under irradiation of Fe(C)MnNi model alloys for reactor pressure vessel steels

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chiapetto, M., E-mail: mchiapet@sckcen.be [SCK-CEN, Nuclear Materials Science Institute, Boeretang 200, B-2400 Mol (Belgium); Unité Matériaux Et Transformations (UMET), UMR 8207, Université de Lille 1, ENSCL, F-59600 Villeneuve d’Ascq Cedex (France); Becquart, C.S. [Unité Matériaux Et Transformations (UMET), UMR 8207, Université de Lille 1, ENSCL, F-59600 Villeneuve d’Ascq Cedex (France); Laboratoire commun EDF-CNRS Etude et Modélisation des Microstructures pour le Vieillissement des Matériaux (EM2VM) (France); Domain, C. [EDF R& D, Département Matériaux et Mécanique des Composants, Les Renardières, F-77250 Moret sur Loing (France); Laboratoire commun EDF-CNRS Etude et Modélisation des Microstructures pour le Vieillissement des Matériaux (EM2VM) (France); Malerba, L. [SCK-CEN, Nuclear Materials Science Institute, Boeretang 200, B-2400 Mol (Belgium)

2015-06-01

Radiation-induced embrittlement of bainitic steels is one of the most important lifetime limiting factors of existing nuclear light water reactor pressure vessels. The primary mechanism of embrittlement is the obstruction of dislocation motion produced by nanometric defect structures that develop in the bulk of the material due to irradiation. The development of models that describe, based on physical mechanisms, the nanostructural changes in these types of materials due to neutron irradiation are expected to help to better understand which features are mainly responsible for embrittlement. The chemical elements that are thought to influence most the response under irradiation of low-Cu RPV steels, especially at high fluence, are Ni and Mn, hence there is an interest in modelling the nanostructure evolution in irradiated FeMnNi alloys. As a first step in this direction, we developed sets of parameters for object kinetic Monte Carlo (OKMC) simulations that allow this to be done, under simplifying assumptions, using a “grey alloy” approach that extends the already existing OKMC model for neutron irradiated Fe–C binary alloys [1]. Our model proved to be able to describe the trend in the buildup of irradiation defect populations at the operational temperature of LWR (∼300 °C), in terms of both density and size distribution of the defect cluster populations, in FeMnNi model alloys as compared to Fe–C. In particular, the reduction of the mobility of point-defect clusters as a consequence of the presence of solutes proves to be key to explain the experimentally observed disappearance of detectable point-defect clusters with increasing solute content.

Rooting phylogenetic trees under the coalescent model using site pattern probabilities.

Science.gov (United States)

Tian, Yuan; Kubatko, Laura

2017-12-19

Phylogenetic tree inference is a fundamental tool to estimate ancestor-descendant relationships among different species. In phylogenetic studies, identification of the root - the most recent common ancestor of all sampled organisms - is essential for complete understanding of the evolutionary relationships. Rooted trees benefit most downstream application of phylogenies such as species classification or study of adaptation. Often, trees can be rooted by using outgroups, which are species that are known to be more distantly related to the sampled organisms than any other species in the phylogeny. However, outgroups are not always available in evolutionary research. In this study, we develop a new method for rooting species tree under the coalescent model, by developing a series of hypothesis tests for rooting quartet phylogenies using site pattern probabilities. The power of this method is examined by simulation studies and by application to an empirical North American rattlesnake data set. The method shows high accuracy across the simulation conditions considered, and performs well for the rattlesnake data. Thus, it provides a computationally efficient way to accurately root species-level phylogenies that incorporates the coalescent process. The method is robust to variation in substitution model, but is sensitive to the assumption of a molecular clock. Our study establishes a computationally practical method for rooting species trees that is more efficient than traditional methods. The method will benefit numerous evolutionary studies that require rooting a phylogenetic tree without having to specify outgroups.

Coastal aquifer management under parameter uncertainty: Ensemble surrogate modeling based simulation-optimization

Science.gov (United States)

Janardhanan, S.; Datta, B.

2011-12-01

Surrogate models are widely used to develop computationally efficient simulation-optimization models to solve complex groundwater management problems. Artificial intelligence based models are most often used for this purpose where they are trained using predictor-predictand data obtained from a numerical simulation model. Most often this is implemented with the assumption that the parameters and boundary conditions used in the numerical simulation model are perfectly known. However, in most practical situations these values are uncertain. Under these circumstances the application of such approximation surrogates becomes limited. In our study we develop a surrogate model based coupled simulation optimization methodology for determining optimal pumping strategies for coastal aquifers considering parameter uncertainty. An ensemble surrogate modeling approach is used along with multiple realization optimization. The methodology is used to solve a multi-objective coastal aquifer management problem considering two conflicting objectives. Hydraulic conductivity and the aquifer recharge are considered as uncertain values. Three dimensional coupled flow and transport simulation model FEMWATER is used to simulate the aquifer responses for a number of scenarios corresponding to Latin hypercube samples of pumping and uncertain parameters to generate input-output patterns for training the surrogate models. Non-parametric bootstrap sampling of this original data set is used to generate multiple data sets which belong to different regions in the multi-dimensional decision and parameter space. These data sets are used to train and test multiple surrogate models based on genetic programming. The ensemble of surrogate models is then linked to a multi-objective genetic algorithm to solve the pumping optimization problem. Two conflicting objectives, viz, maximizing total pumping from beneficial wells and minimizing the total pumping from barrier wells for hydraulic control of

Shattering Man’s Fundamental Assumptions in Don DeLillo’s Falling Man

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hazim Adnan Hashim

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The present study addresses effects of traumatic events such as the September 11 attacks on victims’ fundamental assumptions. These beliefs or assumptions provide individuals with expectations about the world and their sense of self-worth. Thus, they ground people’s sense of security, stability, and orientation. The September 11 terrorist attacks in the U.S.A. were very tragic for Americans because this fundamentally changed their understandings about many aspects in life. The attacks led many individuals to build new kind of beliefs and assumptions about themselves and the world. Many writers have written about the human ordeals that followed this incident. Don DeLillo’s Falling Man reflects the traumatic repercussions of this disaster on Americans’ fundamental assumptions. The objective of this study is to examine the novel from the traumatic perspective that has afflicted the victims’ fundamental understandings of the world and the self. Individuals’ fundamental understandings could be changed or modified due to exposure to certain types of events like war, terrorism, political violence or even the sense of alienation. The Assumptive World theory of Ronnie Janoff-Bulman will be used as a framework to study the traumatic experience of the characters in Falling Man. The significance of the study lies in providing a new perception to the field of trauma that can help trauma victims to adopt alternative assumptions or reshape their previous ones to heal from traumatic effects.

Continuous Spatial Process Models for Spatial Extreme Values

KAUST Repository

Sang, Huiyan

2010-01-28

We propose a hierarchical modeling approach for explaining a collection of point-referenced extreme values. In particular, annual maxima over space and time are assumed to follow generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions, with parameters μ, σ, and ξ specified in the latent stage to reflect underlying spatio-temporal structure. The novelty here is that we relax the conditionally independence assumption in the first stage of the hierarchial model, an assumption which has been adopted in previous work. This assumption implies that realizations of the the surface of spatial maxima will be everywhere discontinuous. For many phenomena including, e. g., temperature and precipitation, this behavior is inappropriate. Instead, we offer a spatial process model for extreme values that provides mean square continuous realizations, where the behavior of the surface is driven by the spatial dependence which is unexplained under the latent spatio-temporal specification for the GEV parameters. In this sense, the first stage smoothing is viewed as fine scale or short range smoothing while the larger scale smoothing will be captured in the second stage of the modeling. In addition, as would be desired, we are able to implement spatial interpolation for extreme values based on this model. A simulation study and a study on actual annual maximum rainfall for a region in South Africa are used to illustrate the performance of the model. © 2009 International Biometric Society.

Chemical model reduction under uncertainty

KAUST Repository

Najm, Habib; Galassi, R. Malpica; Valorani, M.

2016-01-01

We outline a strategy for chemical kinetic model reduction under uncertainty. We present highlights of our existing deterministic model reduction strategy, and describe the extension of the formulation to include parametric uncertainty in the detailed mechanism. We discuss the utility of this construction, as applied to hydrocarbon fuel-air kinetics, and the associated use of uncertainty-aware measures of error between predictions from detailed and simplified models.

Chemical model reduction under uncertainty

KAUST Repository

Najm, Habib

2016-01-05

We outline a strategy for chemical kinetic model reduction under uncertainty. We present highlights of our existing deterministic model reduction strategy, and describe the extension of the formulation to include parametric uncertainty in the detailed mechanism. We discuss the utility of this construction, as applied to hydrocarbon fuel-air kinetics, and the associated use of uncertainty-aware measures of error between predictions from detailed and simplified models.

The Role of Policy Assumptions in Validating High-stakes Testing Programs.

Science.gov (United States)

Kane, Michael

L. Cronbach has made the point that for validity arguments to be convincing to diverse audiences, they need to be based on assumptions that are credible to these audiences. The interpretations and uses of high stakes test scores rely on a number of policy assumptions about what should be taught in schools, and more specifically, about the content…

Dormancy release of Norway spruce under climatic warming: testing ecophysiological models of bud burst with a whole-tree chamber experiment.

Science.gov (United States)

Hänninen, Heikki; Slaney, Michelle; Linder, Sune

2007-02-01

Ecophysiological models predicting timing of bud burst were tested with data gathered from 40-year-old Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) trees growing in northern Sweden in whole-tree chambers under climatic conditions predicted to prevail in 2100. Norway spruce trees, with heights between 5 and 7 m, were enclosed in individual chambers that provided a factorial combination of ambient (365 micromol mol-1) or elevated (700 micromol mol-1) atmospheric CO2 concentration, [CO2], and ambient or elevated air temperature. Temperature elevation above ambient ranged from +2.8 degrees C in summer to +5.6 degrees C in winter. Compared with control trees, elevated air temperature hastened bud burst by 2 to 3 weeks, whereas elevated [CO2] had no effect on the timing of bud burst. A simple model based on the assumption that bud rest completion takes place on a fixed calendar day predicted timing of bud burst more accurately than two more complicated models in which bud rest completion is caused by accumulated chilling. Together with some recent studies, the results suggest that, in adult trees, some additional environmental cues besides chilling are required for bud rest completion. Although it appears that these additional factors will protect trees under predicted climatic warming conditions, increased risk of frost damage associated with earlier bud burst cannot be ruled out. Inconsistent and partially anomalous results obtained in the model fitting show that, in addition to phenological data gathered under field conditions, more specific data from growth chamber and greenhouse experiments are needed for further development and testing of the models.

Rational Adaptation under Task and Processing Constraints: Implications for Testing Theories of Cognition and Action

Science.gov (United States)

Howes, Andrew; Lewis, Richard L.; Vera, Alonso

2009-01-01

The authors assume that individuals adapt rationally to a utility function given constraints imposed by their cognitive architecture and the local task environment. This assumption underlies a new approach to modeling and understanding cognition--cognitively bounded rational analysis--that sharpens the predictive acuity of general, integrated…

Climate change scenarios in Mexico from models results under the assumption of a doubling in the atmospheric CO{sub 2}

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mendoza, V.M.; Villanueva, E.E.; Garduno, R.; Adem, J. [Centro de Ciencias de la Atmosfera, Mexico (Mexico)

1995-12-31

General circulation models (GCMs) and energy balance models (EBMs) are the best way to simulate the complex large-scale dynamic and thermodynamic processes in the atmosphere. These models have been used to estimate the global warming due to an increase of atmospheric CO{sub 2}. In Japan Ohta with coworkers has developed a physical model based on the conservation of thermal energy applied to pounded shallow water, to compute the change in the water temperature, using the atmospheric warming and the precipitation due to the increase in the atmospheric CO{sub 2} computed by the GISS-GCM. In this work, a method similar to the Ohta`s one is used for computing the change in ground temperature, soil moisture, evaporation, runoff and dryness index in eleven hydrological zones, using in this case the surface air temperature and precipitation due to CO{sub 2} doubling, computed by the GFDLR30-GCM and the version of the Adem thermodynamic climate model (CTM-EBM), which contains the three feedbacks (cryosphere, clouds and water vapor), and does not include water vapor in the CO{sub 2} atmospheric spectral band (12-19{mu})

Climate change scenarios in Mexico from models results under the assumption of a doubling in the atmospheric CO{sub 2}

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mendoza, V M; Villanueva, E E; Garduno, R; Adem, J [Centro de Ciencias de la Atmosfera, Mexico (Mexico)

1996-12-31

General circulation models (GCMs) and energy balance models (EBMs) are the best way to simulate the complex large-scale dynamic and thermodynamic processes in the atmosphere. These models have been used to estimate the global warming due to an increase of atmospheric CO{sub 2}. In Japan Ohta with coworkers has developed a physical model based on the conservation of thermal energy applied to pounded shallow water, to compute the change in the water temperature, using the atmospheric warming and the precipitation due to the increase in the atmospheric CO{sub 2} computed by the GISS-GCM. In this work, a method similar to the Ohta`s one is used for computing the change in ground temperature, soil moisture, evaporation, runoff and dryness index in eleven hydrological zones, using in this case the surface air temperature and precipitation due to CO{sub 2} doubling, computed by the GFDLR30-GCM and the version of the Adem thermodynamic climate model (CTM-EBM), which contains the three feedbacks (cryosphere, clouds and water vapor), and does not include water vapor in the CO{sub 2} atmospheric spectral band (12-19{mu})

Addressing potential local adaptation in species distribution models: implications for conservation under climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Hällfors, Maria Helena; Liao, Jishan; Dzurisin, Jason D. K.; Grundel, Ralph; Hyvärinen, Marko; Towle, Kevin; Wu, Grace C.; Hellmann, Jessica J.

2016-01-01

Species distribution models (SDMs) have been criticized for involving assumptions that ignore or categorize many ecologically relevant factors such as dispersal ability and biotic interactions. Another potential source of model error is the assumption that species are ecologically uniform in their climatic tolerances across their range. Typically, SDMs to treat a species as a single entity, although populations of many species differ due to local adaptation or other genetic differentiation. Not taking local adaptation into account, may lead to incorrect range prediction and therefore misplaced conservation efforts. A constraint is that we often do not know the degree to which populations are locally adapted, however. Lacking experimental evidence, we still can evaluate niche differentiation within a species' range to promote better conservation decisions. We explore possible conservation implications of making type I or type II errors in this context. For each of two species, we construct three separate MaxEnt models, one considering the species as a single population and two of disjunct populations. PCA analyses and response curves indicate different climate characteristics in the current environments of the populations. Model projections into future climates indicate minimal overlap between areas predicted to be climatically suitable by the whole species versus population-based models. We present a workflow for addressing uncertainty surrounding local adaptation in SDM application and illustrate the value of conducting population-based models to compare with whole-species models. These comparisons might result in more cautious management actions when alternative range outcomes are considered.

How to Handle Assumptions in Synthesis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roderick Bloem

2014-07-01

Full Text Available The increased interest in reactive synthesis over the last decade has led to many improved solutions but also to many new questions. In this paper, we discuss the question of how to deal with assumptions on environment behavior. We present four goals that we think should be met and review several different possibilities that have been proposed. We argue that each of them falls short in at least one aspect.

Criteria for comparing economic impact models of tourism

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Klijs, J.; Heijman, W.J.M.; Korteweg Maris, D.; Bryon, J.

2012-01-01

There are substantial differences between models of the economic impacts of tourism. Not only do the nature and precision of results vary, but data demands, complexity and underlying assumptions also differ. Often, it is not clear whether the models chosen are appropriate for the specific situation

How Does Temperature Impact Leaf Size and Shape in Four Woody Dicot Species? Testing the Assumptions of Leaf Physiognomy-Climate Models

Science.gov (United States)

McKee, M.; Royer, D. L.

2017-12-01

The physiognomy (size and shape) of fossilized leaves has been used to reconstruct the mean annual temperature of ancient environments. Colder temperatures often select for larger and more abundant leaf teeth—serrated edges on leaf margins—as well as a greater degree of leaf dissection. However, to be able to accurately predict paleotemperature from the morphology of fossilized leaves, leaves must be able to react quickly and in a predictable manner to changes in temperature. We examined the extent to which temperature affects leaf morphology in four tree species: Carpinus caroliniana, Acer negundo, Ilex opaca, and Ostrya virginiana. Saplings of these species were grown in two growth cabinets under contrasting temperatures (17 and 25 °C). Compared to the cool treatment, in the warm treatment Carpinus caroliniana leaves had significantly fewer leaf teeth and a lower ratio of total number of leaf teeth to internal perimeter; and Acer negundo leaves had a significantly lower feret diameter ratio (a measure of leaf dissection). In addition, a two-way ANOVA tested the influence of temperature and species on leaf physiognomy. This analysis revealed that all plants, regardless of species, tended to develop more highly dissected leaves with more leaf teeth in the cool treatment. Because the cabinets maintained equivalent moisture, humidity, and CO2 concentration between the two treatments, these results demonstrate that these species could rapidly adapt to changes in temperature. However, not all of the species reacted identically to temperature changes. For example, Acer negundo, Carpinus caroliniana, and Ostrya virginiana all had a higher number of total teeth in the cool treatment compared to the warm treatment, but the opposite was true for Ilex opaca. Our work questions a fundamental assumption common to all models predicting paleotemperature from the physiognomy of fossilized leaves: a given climate will inevitably select for the same leaf physiognomy

On some unwarranted tacit assumptions in cognitive neuroscience.

Science.gov (United States)

Mausfeld, Rainer

2012-01-01

The cognitive neurosciences are based on the idea that the level of neurons or neural networks constitutes a privileged level of analysis for the explanation of mental phenomena. This paper brings to mind several arguments to the effect that this presumption is ill-conceived and unwarranted in light of what is currently understood about the physical principles underlying mental achievements. It then scrutinizes the question why such conceptions are nevertheless currently prevailing in many areas of psychology. The paper argues that corresponding conceptions are rooted in four different aspects of our common-sense conception of mental phenomena and their explanation, which are illegitimately transferred to scientific enquiry. These four aspects pertain to the notion of explanation, to conceptions about which mental phenomena are singled out for enquiry, to an inductivist epistemology, and, in the wake of behavioristic conceptions, to a bias favoring investigations of input-output relations at the expense of enquiries into internal principles. To the extent that the cognitive neurosciences methodologically adhere to these tacit assumptions, they are prone to turn into a largely a-theoretical and data-driven endeavor while at the same time enhancing the prospects for receiving widespread public appreciation of their empirical findings.

Kinetics of UO2(s) dissolution under reducing conditions: Numerical modelling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Puigdomenech, I.; Casas, I.; Bruno, J.

1990-05-01

A numerical model is presented that describes the dissolution and precipitation of UO 2 (s) under reducing conditions. For aqueous solutions with pH>4, main reaction is: UO 2 (s)+2H 2 O↔U(OH) 4 (aq). The rate constant for the precipitation reaction is found to be log(k p )=-1.2±0.2 h -1 m -2 , while the value for the rate constant of the dissolution reaction is log(k d )=-9.0±0.2 mol/(1 h m 2 ). Most of the experiments reported in the literature show a fast initial dissolution of a surface film of hexavalent uranium oxide. Making the assumption that the chemical composition of the surface coating is U 3 O 7 (s), we have derived a mechanism for this process, and its rate constants have been obtained. The influence of HCO 3 - and CO 3 2- on the mechanism of dissolution and precipitation of UO 2 (s) is still unclear. From the solubility measurements reported, one may conclude that the identity of the aqueous complexes in solution is not well known. Therefore it is not possible to make a mechanistic interpretation of the kinetic data in carbonate medium. (orig.)

False assumptions.

Science.gov (United States)

Swaminathan, M

1997-01-01

Indian women do not have to be told the benefits of breast feeding or "rescued from the clutches of wicked multinational companies" by international agencies. There is no proof that breast feeding has declined in India; in fact, a 1987 survey revealed that 98% of Indian women breast feed. Efforts to promote breast feeding among the middle classes rely on such initiatives as the "baby friendly" hospital where breast feeding is promoted immediately after birth. This ignores the 76% of Indian women who give birth at home. Blaming this unproved decline in breast feeding on multinational companies distracts attention from more far-reaching and intractable effects of social change. While the Infant Milk Substitutes Act is helpful, it also deflects attention from more pressing issues. Another false assumption is that Indian women are abandoning breast feeding to comply with the demands of employment, but research indicates that most women give up employment for breast feeding, despite the economic cost to their families. Women also seek work in the informal sector to secure the flexibility to meet their child care responsibilities. Instead of being concerned about "teaching" women what they already know about the benefits of breast feeding, efforts should be made to remove the constraints women face as a result of their multiple roles and to empower them with the support of families, governmental policies and legislation, employers, health professionals, and the media.

7 CFR 1980.476 - Transfer and assumptions.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

...-354 449-30 to recover its pro rata share of the actual loss at that time. In completing Form FmHA or... the lender on liquidations and property management. A. The State Director may approve all transfer and... Director will notify the Finance Office of all approved transfer and assumption cases on Form FmHA or its...

Rethinking our assumptions about the evolution of bird song and other sexually dimorphic signals

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Jordan Price

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Bird song is often cited as a classic example of a sexually-selected ornament, in part because historically it has been considered a primarily male trait. Recent evidence that females also sing in many songbird species and that sexual dimorphism in song is often the result of losses in females rather than gains in males therefore appears to challenge our understanding of the evolution of bird song through sexual selection. Here I propose that these new findings do not necessarily contradict previous research, but rather they disagree with some of our assumptions about the evolution of sexual dimorphisms in general and female song in particular. These include misconceptions that current patterns of elaboration and diversity in each sex reflect past rates of change and that levels of sexual dimorphism necessarily reflect levels of sexual selection. Using New World blackbirds (Icteridae as an example, I critically evaluate these past assumptions in light of new phylogenetic evidence. Understanding the mechanisms underlying such sexually dimorphic traits requires a clear understanding of their evolutionary histories. Only then can we begin to ask the right questions.

The EPQ model under conditions of two levels of trade credit and limited storage capacity in supply chain management

Science.gov (United States)

Chung, Kun-Jen

2013-09-01

An inventory problem involves a lot of factors influencing inventory decisions. To understand it, the traditional economic production quantity (EPQ) model plays rather important role for inventory analysis. Although the traditional EPQ models are still widely used in industry, practitioners frequently question validities of assumptions of these models such that their use encounters challenges and difficulties. So, this article tries to present a new inventory model by considering two levels of trade credit, finite replenishment rate and limited storage capacity together to relax the basic assumptions of the traditional EPQ model to improve the environment of the use of it. Keeping in mind cost-minimisation strategy, four easy-to-use theorems are developed to characterise the optimal solution. Finally, the sensitivity analyses are executed to investigate the effects of the various parameters on ordering policies and the annual total relevant costs of the inventory system.

Factor structure and concurrent validity of the world assumptions scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Elklit, Ask; Shevlin, Mark; Solomon, Zahava; Dekel, Rachel

2007-06-01

The factor structure of the World Assumptions Scale (WAS) was assessed by means of confirmatory factor analysis. The sample was comprised of 1,710 participants who had been exposed to trauma that resulted in whiplash. Four alternative models were specified and estimated using LISREL 8.72. A correlated 8-factor solution was the best explanation of the sample data. The estimates of reliability of eight subscales of the WAS ranged from .48 to .82. Scores from five subscales correlated significantly with trauma severity as measured by the Harvard Trauma Questionnaire, although the magnitude of the correlations was low to modest, ranging from .08 to -.43. It is suggested that the WAS has adequate psychometric properties for use in both clinical and research settings.

Expressing Environment Assumptions and Real-time Requirements for a Distributed Embedded System with Shared Variables

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tjell, Simon; Fernandes, João Miguel

2008-01-01

In a distributed embedded system, it is often necessary to share variables among its computing nodes to allow the distribution of control algorithms. It is therefore necessary to include a component in each node that provides the service of variable sharing. For that type of component, this paper...... for the component. The CPN model can be used to validate the environment assumptions and the requirements. The validation is performed by execution of the model during which traces of events and states are automatically generated and evaluated against the requirements....

RADIONUCLIDE TRANSPORT MODELS UNDER AMBIENT CONDITIONS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

S. Magnuson

2004-11-01

The purpose of this model report is to document the unsaturated zone (UZ) radionuclide transport model, which evaluates, by means of three-dimensional numerical models, the transport of radioactive solutes and colloids in the UZ, under ambient conditions, from the repository horizon to the water table at Yucca Mountain, Nevada.

Testing the assumption of normality in body sway area calculations during unipedal stance tests with an inertial sensor.

Science.gov (United States)

Kyoung Jae Kim; Lucarevic, Jennifer; Bennett, Christopher; Gaunaurd, Ignacio; Gailey, Robert; Agrawal, Vibhor

2016-08-01

The quantification of postural sway during the unipedal stance test is one of the essentials of posturography. A shift of center of pressure (CoP) is an indirect measure of postural sway and also a measure of a person's ability to maintain balance. A widely used method in laboratory settings to calculate the sway of body center of mass (CoM) is through an ellipse that encloses 95% of CoP trajectory. The 95% ellipse can be computed under the assumption that the spatial distribution of the CoP points recorded from force platforms is normal. However, to date, this assumption of normality has not been demonstrated for sway measurements recorded from a sacral inertial measurement unit (IMU). This work provides evidence for non-normality of sway trajectories calculated at a sacral IMU with injured subjects as well as healthy subjects.

Global testing under sparse alternatives: ANOVA, multiple comparisons and the higher criticism

OpenAIRE

Arias-Castro, Ery; Candès, Emmanuel J.; Plan, Yaniv

2011-01-01

Testing for the significance of a subset of regression coefficients in a linear model, a staple of statistical analysis, goes back at least to the work of Fisher who introduced the analysis of variance (ANOVA). We study this problem under the assumption that the coefficient vector is sparse, a common situation in modern high-dimensional settings. Suppose we have $p$ covariates and that under the alternative, the response only depends upon the order of $p^{1-\\alpha}$ of those, $0\\le\\alpha\\le1$...

The crux of the method: assumptions in ordinary least squares and logistic regression.

Science.gov (United States)

Long, Rebecca G

2008-10-01

Logistic regression has increasingly become the tool of choice when analyzing data with a binary dependent variable. While resources relating to the technique are widely available, clear discussions of why logistic regression should be used in place of ordinary least squares regression are difficult to find. The current paper compares and contrasts the assumptions of ordinary least squares with those of logistic regression and explains why logistic regression's looser assumptions make it adept at handling violations of the more important assumptions in ordinary least squares.

Efficient pseudorandom generators based on the DDH assumption

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rezaeian Farashahi, R.; Schoenmakers, B.; Sidorenko, A.; Okamoto, T.; Wang, X.

2007-01-01

A family of pseudorandom generators based on the decisional Diffie-Hellman assumption is proposed. The new construction is a modified and generalized version of the Dual Elliptic Curve generator proposed by Barker and Kelsey. Although the original Dual Elliptic Curve generator is shown to be

Review and comparison of bi-fluid interpenetration mixing models; Revue et comparaison de modeles bifluides bivitesses d'interpenetration

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Enaux, C

2006-07-01

Today, there is a lot of bi-fluid models with two different speeds: Baer-Nunziato models; Godunov-Romensky models. coupled Euler's equations, and so on. In this report, one compares the most used models in the fields of physics and mathematics while basing this study on the literature. From the point of view of physics. for each model. one reviews: -) the type of mixture considered and modeling assumptions, -) the technique of construction, -) some properties like the respect of thermodynamical principles, the respect of the Galilean invariance principle, or the equilibrium conservation. From the point of view of mathematics, for each model, one looks at: -) the possibility of writing the equations in conservative form, -) hyperbolicity, -) the existence of a mathematical entropy. Finally, a unified review of the models is proposed. It is shown that under certain closing assumptions or for certain flow types. some of the models become equivalent. (author)

A lattice Boltzmann model for the Burgers-Fisher equation.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Jianying; Yan, Guangwu

2010-06-01

A lattice Boltzmann model is developed for the one- and two-dimensional Burgers-Fisher equation based on the method of the higher-order moment of equilibrium distribution functions and a series of partial differential equations in different time scales. In order to obtain the two-dimensional Burgers-Fisher equation, vector sigma(j) has been used. And in order to overcome the drawbacks of "error rebound," a new assumption of additional distribution is presented, where two additional terms, in first order and second order separately, are used. Comparisons with the results obtained by other methods reveal that the numerical solutions obtained by the proposed method converge to exact solutions. The model under new assumption gives better results than that with second order assumption. (c) 2010 American Institute of Physics.

Homogenization of neutronic diffusion models; Homogeneisation des modeles de diffusion en neutronique

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Capdebosq, Y

1999-09-01

In order to study and simulate nuclear reactor cores, one needs to access the neutron distribution in the core. In practice, the description of this density of neutrons is given by a system of diffusion equations, coupled by non differential exchange terms. The strong heterogeneity of the medium constitutes a major obstacle to the numerical computation of this models at reasonable cost. Homogenization appears as compulsory. Heuristic methods have been developed since the origin by nuclear physicists, under a periodicity assumption on the coefficients. They consist in doing a fine computation one a single periodicity cell, to solve the system on the whole domain with homogeneous coefficients, and to reconstruct the neutron density by multiplying the solutions of the two computations. The objectives of this work are to provide mathematically rigorous basis to this factorization method, to obtain the exact formulas of the homogenized coefficients, and to start on geometries where two periodical medium are placed side by side. The first result of this thesis concerns eigenvalue problem models which are used to characterize the state of criticality of the reactor, under a symmetry assumption on the coefficients. The convergence of the homogenization process is proved, and formulas of the homogenized coefficients are given. We then show that without symmetry assumptions, a drift phenomenon appears. It is characterized by the mean of a real Bloch wave method, which gives the homogenized limit in the general case. These results for the critical problem are then adapted to the evolution model. Finally, the homogenization of the critical problem in the case of two side by side periodic medium is studied on a one dimensional on equation model. (authors)

Implications of Model Structure and Detail for Utility Planning. Scenario Case Studies using the Resource Planning Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Barrows, Clayton [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lopez, Anthony [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hale, Elaine [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Dyson, Mark [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Eurek, Kelly [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2015-04-23

We examine how model investment decisions change under different model configurations and assumptions related to renewable capacity credit, the inclusion or exclusion of operating reserves, dispatch period sampling, transmission power flow modeling, renewable spur line costs, and the ability of a planning region to import and export power. For all modeled scenarios, we find that under market conditions where new renewable deployment is predominantly driven by renewable portfolio standards, model representations of wind and solar capacity credit and interactions between balancing areas are most influential in avoiding model investments in excess thermal capacity. We also compare computation time between configurations to evaluate tradeoffs between computational burden and model accuracy. From this analysis, we find that certain advanced dispatch representations (e.g., DC optimal power flow) can have dramatic adverse effects on computation time but can be largely inconsequential to model investment outcomes, at least at the renewable penetration levels modeled. Finally, we find that certain underappreciated aspects of new capacity investment decisions and model representations thereof, such as spur lines for new renewable capacity, can influence model outcomes particularly in the renewable technology and location chosen by the model. Though this analysis is not comprehensive and results are specific to the model region, input assumptions, and optimization-modeling framework employed, the findings are intended to provide a guide for model improvement opportunities.

Validating management simulation models and implications for communicating results to stakeholders

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pastoors, M.A.; Poos, J.J.; Kraak, S.B.M.; Machiels, M.A.M.

2007-01-01

Simulations of management plans generally aim to demonstrate the robustness of the plans to assumptions about population dynamics and fleet dynamics. Such modelling is characterized by specification of an operating model (OM) representing the underlying truth and a management procedure that mimics

Validity of the mockwitness paradigm: testing the assumptions.

Science.gov (United States)

McQuiston, Dawn E; Malpass, Roy S

2002-08-01

Mockwitness identifications are used to provide a quantitative measure of lineup fairness. Some theoretical and practical assumptions of this paradigm have not been studied in terms of mockwitnesses' decision processes and procedural variation (e.g., instructions, lineup presentation method), and the current experiment was conducted to empirically evaluate these assumptions. Four hundred and eighty mockwitnesses were given physical information about a culprit, received 1 of 4 variations of lineup instructions, and were asked to identify the culprit from either a fair or unfair sequential lineup containing 1 of 2 targets. Lineup bias estimates varied as a result of lineup fairness and the target presented. Mockwitnesses generally reported that the target's physical description was their main source of identifying information. Our findings support the use of mockwitness identifications as a useful technique for sequential lineup evaluation, but only for mockwitnesses who selected only 1 lineup member. Recommendations for the use of this evaluation procedure are discussed.

One-dimensional reactor kinetics model for RETRAN

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gose, G.C.; Peterson, C.E.; Ellis, N.L.; McClure, J.A.

1981-01-01

Previous versions of RETRAN have had only a point kinetics model to describe the reactor core behavior during thermal-hydraulic transients. The principal assumption in deriving the point kinetics model is that the neutron flux may be separated into a time-dependent amplitude funtion and a time-independent shape function. Certain types of transients cannot be correctly analyzed under this assumption, since proper definitions for core average quantities such as reactivity or lifetime include the inner product of the adjoint flux with the perturbed flux. A one-dimensional neutronics model has been included in a preliminary version of RETRAN-02. The ability to account for flux shape changes will permit an improved representation of the thermal and hydraulic feedback effects. This paper describes the neutronics model and discusses some of the analyses

Educational Technology as a Subversive Activity: Questioning Assumptions Related to Teaching and Leading with Technology

Science.gov (United States)

Kruger-Ross, Matthew J.; Holcomb, Lori B.

2012-01-01

The use of educational technologies is grounded in the assumptions of teachers, learners, and administrators. Assumptions are choices that structure our understandings and help us make meaning. Current advances in Web 2.0 and social media technologies challenge our assumptions about teaching and learning. The intersection of technology and…

On the Validity of the “Thin” and “Thick” Double-Layer Assumptions When Calculating Streaming Currents in Porous Media

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matthew D. Jackson

2012-01-01

Full Text Available We find that the thin double layer assumption, in which the thickness of the electrical diffuse layer is assumed small compared to the radius of curvature of a pore or throat, is valid in a capillary tubes model so long as the capillary radius is >200 times the double layer thickness, while the thick double layer assumption, in which the diffuse layer is assumed to extend across the entire pore or throat, is valid so long as the capillary radius is >6 times smaller than the double layer thickness. At low surface charge density (0.5 M the validity criteria are less stringent. Our results suggest that the thin double layer assumption is valid in sandstones at low specific surface charge (<10 mC⋅m−2, but may not be valid in sandstones of moderate- to small pore-throat size at higher surface charge if the brine concentration is low (<0.001 M. The thick double layer assumption is likely to be valid in mudstones at low brine concentration (<0.1 M and surface charge (<10 mC⋅m−2, but at higher surface charge, it is likely to be valid only at low brine concentration (<0.003 M. Consequently, neither assumption may be valid in mudstones saturated with natural brines.

A note on poroacoustic traveling waves under Forchheimer's law

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jordan, P.M.

2013-01-01

Acoustic traveling waves in a gas that saturates a rigid porous medium is investigated under the assumption that the drag experienced by the gas is modeled by Forchheimer's law. Exact traveling wave solutions (TWS)s, as well as approximate and asymptotic expressions, are obtained; decay rates are determined; and acceleration wave results are presented. In addition, special cases are considered, critical values of the wave variable and parameters are derived, and comparisons with predictions based on Darcy's law are performed. It is shown that, with respect to the Darcy case, most of the metrics that characterize such waveforms exhibit an increase in magnitude under Forchheimer's law

Model for spatial synthesis of automated control system of the GCR type reactor; Model za prostornu sintezu sistema automatskog upravljanja reaktora GCR tipa

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lazarevic, B; Matausek, M [Institut za nuklearne nauke ' Boris Kidric' , Vinca, Belgrade (Yugoslavia)

1966-07-01

This paper describes the model which was developed for synthesis of spatial distribution of automated control elements in the reactor. It represents a general reliable mathematical model for analyzing transition states and synthesis of the automated control and regulation systems of GCR type reactors. One-dimensional system was defined under assumption that the time dependence of parameters of the neutron diffusion equation are identical in the total volume of the reactor and that spatial distribution of neutrons is time independent. It is shown that this assumption is satisfactory in case of short term variations which are relevant for safety analysis.

Child Development Knowledge and Teacher Preparation: Confronting Assumptions.

Science.gov (United States)

Katz, Lilian G.

This paper questions the widely held assumption that acquiring knowledge of child development is an essential part of teacher preparation and teaching competence, especially among teachers of young children. After discussing the influence of culture, parenting style, and teaching style on developmental expectations and outcomes, the paper asserts…

Game Theoretic Modeling of Water Resources Allocation Under Hydro-Climatic Uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, C.; Lall, U.; Siegfried, T.

2005-12-01

Typical hydrologic and economic modeling approaches rely on assumptions of climate stationarity and economic conditions of ideal markets and rational decision-makers. In this study, we incorporate hydroclimatic variability with a game theoretic approach to simulate and evaluate common water allocation paradigms. Game Theory may be particularly appropriate for modeling water allocation decisions. First, a game theoretic approach allows economic analysis in situations where price theory doesn't apply, which is typically the case in water resources where markets are thin, players are few, and rules of exchange are highly constrained by legal or cultural traditions. Previous studies confirm that game theory is applicable to water resources decision problems, yet applications and modeling based on these principles is only rarely observed in the literature. Second, there are numerous existing theoretical and empirical studies of specific games and human behavior that may be applied in the development of predictive water allocation models. With this framework, one can evaluate alternative orderings and rules regarding the fraction of available water that one is allowed to appropriate. Specific attributes of the players involved in water resources management complicate the determination of solutions to game theory models. While an analytical approach will be useful for providing general insights, the variety of preference structures of individual players in a realistic water scenario will likely require a simulation approach. We propose a simulation approach incorporating the rationality, self-interest and equilibrium concepts of game theory with an agent-based modeling framework that allows the distinct properties of each player to be expressed and allows the performance of the system to manifest the integrative effect of these factors. Underlying this framework, we apply a realistic representation of spatio-temporal hydrologic variability and incorporate the impact of

Development of a kinetic model, including rate constant estimations, on iodine and caesium behaviour in the primary circuit of LWR's under accident conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alonso, A.; Buron, J.M.; Fernandez, S.

1991-07-01

In this report, a kinetic model has been developed with the aim to try to reproduce the chemical phenomena that take place in a flowing system containing steam, hydrogen and iodine and caesium vapours. The work is divided into two different parts. The first part consists in the estimation, through the Activited Complex Theory, of the reaction rate constants, for the chosen reactions, and the development of the kinetic model based on the concept of ideal tubular chemical reactor. The second part deals with the application of such model to several cases, which were taken from the Phase B 'Scoping Calculations' of the Phebus-FP Project (sequence AB) and the SFD-ST and SFD1.1 experiments. The main conclusion obtained from this work is that the assumption of instantaneous equilibrium could be inacurrate in order to estimate the iodine and caesium species distribution under severe accidents conditions

On Some Unwarranted Tacit Assumptions in Cognitive Neuroscience†

Science.gov (United States)

Mausfeld, Rainer

2011-01-01

The cognitive neurosciences are based on the idea that the level of neurons or neural networks constitutes a privileged level of analysis for the explanation of mental phenomena. This paper brings to mind several arguments to the effect that this presumption is ill-conceived and unwarranted in light of what is currently understood about the physical principles underlying mental achievements. It then scrutinizes the question why such conceptions are nevertheless currently prevailing in many areas of psychology. The paper argues that corresponding conceptions are rooted in four different aspects of our common-sense conception of mental phenomena and their explanation, which are illegitimately transferred to scientific enquiry. These four aspects pertain to the notion of explanation, to conceptions about which mental phenomena are singled out for enquiry, to an inductivist epistemology, and, in the wake of behavioristic conceptions, to a bias favoring investigations of input–output relations at the expense of enquiries into internal principles. To the extent that the cognitive neurosciences methodologically adhere to these tacit assumptions, they are prone to turn into a largely a-theoretical and data-driven endeavor while at the same time enhancing the prospects for receiving widespread public appreciation of their empirical findings. PMID:22435062

Are waves of relational assumptions eroding traditional analysis?

Science.gov (United States)

Meredith-Owen, William

2013-11-01

The author designates as 'traditional' those elements of psychoanalytic presumption and practice that have, in the wake of Fordham's legacy, helped to inform analytical psychology and expand our capacity to integrate the shadow. It is argued that this element of the broad spectrum of Jungian practice is in danger of erosion by the underlying assumptions of the relational approach, which is fast becoming the new establishment. If the maps of the traditional landscape of symbolic reference (primal scene, Oedipus et al.) are disregarded, analysts are left with only their own self-appointed authority with which to orientate themselves. This self-centric epistemological basis of the relationalists leads to a revision of 'analytic attitude' that may be therapeutic but is not essentially analytic. This theme is linked to the perennial challenge of balancing differentiation and merger and traced back, through Chasseguet-Smirgel, to its roots in Genesis. An endeavour is made to illustrate this within the Journal convention of clinically based discussion through a commentary on Colman's (2013) avowedly relational treatment of the case material presented in his recent Journal paper 'Reflections on knowledge and experience' and through an assessment of Jessica Benjamin's (2004) relational critique of Ron Britton's (1989) transference embodied approach. © 2013, The Society of Analytical Psychology.

Existence of Torsional Solitons in a Beam Model of Suspension Bridge

Science.gov (United States)

Benci, Vieri; Fortunato, Donato; Gazzola, Filippo

2017-11-01

This paper studies the existence of solitons, namely stable solitary waves, in an idealized suspension bridge. The bridge is modeled as an unbounded degenerate plate, that is, a central beam with cross sections, and displays two degrees of freedom: the vertical displacement of the beam and the torsional angles of the cross sections. Under fairly general assumptions, we prove the existence of solitons. Under the additional assumption of large tension in the sustaining cables, we prove that these solitons have a nontrivial torsional component. This appears relevant for security since several suspension bridges collapsed due to torsional oscillations.

Making Predictions about Chemical Reactivity: Assumptions and Heuristics

Science.gov (United States)

Maeyer, Jenine; Talanquer, Vicente

2013-01-01

Diverse implicit cognitive elements seem to support but also constrain reasoning in different domains. Many of these cognitive constraints can be thought of as either implicit assumptions about the nature of things or reasoning heuristics for decision-making. In this study we applied this framework to investigate college students' understanding of…

Problematic assumptions have slowed down depression research: why symptoms, not syndromes are the way forward

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eiko I Fried

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Major Depression (MD is a highly heterogeneous diagnostic category. Diverse symptoms such as sad mood, anhedonia, and fatigue are routinely added to an unweighted sum-score, and cutoffs are used to distinguish between depressed participants and healthy controls. Researchers then investigate outcome variables like MD risk factors, biomarkers, and treatment response in such samples. These practices presuppose that (1 depression is a discrete condition, and that (2 symptoms are interchangeable indicators of this latent disorder. Here I review these two assumptions, elucidate their historical roots, show how deeply engrained they are in psychological and psychiatric research, and document that they contrast with evidence. Depression is not a consistent syndrome with clearly demarcated boundaries, and depression symptoms are not interchangeable indicators of an underlying disorder. Current research practices lump individuals with very different problems into one category, which has contributed to the remarkably slow progress in key research domains such as the development of efficacious antidepressants or the identification of biomarkers for depression.The recently proposed network framework offers an alternative to the problematic assumptions. MD is not understood as a distinct condition, but as heterogeneous symptom cluster that substantially overlaps with other syndromes such as anxiety disorders. MD is not framed as an underlying disease with a number of equivalent indicators, but as a network of symptoms that have direct causal influence on each other: insomnia can cause fatigue which then triggers concentration and psychomotor problems. This approach offers new opportunities for constructing an empirically based classification system and has broad implications for future research.

Simulation modelling of a patient surge in an emergency department under disaster conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muhammet Gul

2015-10-01

Full Text Available The efficiency of emergency departments (EDs in handling patient surges during disaster times using the available resources is very important. Many EDs require additional resources to overcome the bottlenecks in emergency systems. The assumption is that EDs consider the option of temporary staff dispatching, among other options, in order to respond to an increased demand or even the hiring temporarily non-hospital medical staff. Discrete event simulation (DES, a well-known simulation method and based on the idea of process modeling, is used for establishing ED operations and management related models. In this study, a DES model is developed to investigate and analyze an ED under normal conditions and an ED in a disaster scenario which takes into consideration an increased influx of disaster victims-patients. This will allow early preparedness of emergency departments in terms of physical and human resources. The studied ED is located in an earthquake zone in Istanbul. The report on Istanbul’s disaster preparedness presented by the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA and Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IMM, asserts that the district where the ED is located is estimated to have the highest injury rate. Based on real case study information, the study aims to suggest a model on pre-planning of ED resources for disasters. The results indicate that in times of a possible disaster, when the percentage of red patient arrivals exceeds 20% of total patient arrivals, the number of red area nurses and the available space for red area patients will be insufficient for the department to operate effectively. A methodological improvement presented a different distribution function that was tested for service time of the treatment areas. The conclusion is that the Weibull distribution function used in service process of injection room fits the model better than the Gamma distribution function.

A State Space Model for the Wood Chip Refining Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David Di Ruscio

1997-07-01

Full Text Available A detailed dynamic model of the fibre size distribution between the refiner discs, distributed along the refiner radius, is presented. Both one- and two-dimensional descriptions for the fibre or shive geometry are given. It is shown that this model may be simplified and that analytic solutions exist under non-restrictive assumptions. A direct method for the recursive estimation of unknown parameters is presented. This method is applicable to linear or linearized systems which have a triangular structure.

Testing Our Fundamental Assumptions

Science.gov (United States)

Kohler, Susanna

2016-06-01

Science is all about testing the things we take for granted including some of the most fundamental aspects of how we understand our universe. Is the speed of light in a vacuum the same for all photons regardless of their energy? Is the rest mass of a photon actually zero? A series of recent studies explore the possibility of using transient astrophysical sources for tests!Explaining Different Arrival TimesArtists illustration of a gamma-ray burst, another extragalactic transient, in a star-forming region. [NASA/Swift/Mary Pat Hrybyk-Keith and John Jones]Suppose you observe a distant transient astrophysical source like a gamma-ray burst, or a flare from an active nucleus and two photons of different energies arrive at your telescope at different times. This difference in arrival times could be due to several different factors, depending on how deeply you want to question some of our fundamental assumptions about physics:Intrinsic delayThe photons may simply have been emitted at two different times by the astrophysical source.Delay due to Lorentz invariance violationPerhaps the assumption that all massless particles (even two photons with different energies) move at the exact same velocity in a vacuum is incorrect.Special-relativistic delayMaybe there is a universal speed for massless particles, but the assumption that photons have zero rest mass is wrong. This, too, would cause photon velocities to be energy-dependent.Delay due to gravitational potentialPerhaps our understanding of the gravitational potential that the photons experience as they travel is incorrect, also causing different flight times for photons of different energies. This would mean that Einsteins equivalence principle, a fundamental tenet of general relativity (GR), is incorrect.If we now turn this problem around, then by measuring the arrival time delay between photons of different energies from various astrophysical sources the further away, the better we can provide constraints on these

Empirical Results of Modeling EUR/RON Exchange Rate using ARCH, GARCH, EGARCH, TARCH and PARCH models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andreea – Cristina PETRICĂ

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study consists in examining the changes in the volatility of daily returns of EUR/RON exchange rate using on the one hand symmetric GARCH models (ARCH and GARCH and on the other hand the asymmetric GARCH models (EGARCH, TARCH and PARCH, since the conditional variance is time-varying. The analysis takes into account daily quotations of EUR/RON exchange rate over the period of 04th January 1999 to 13th June 2016. Thus, we are modeling heteroscedasticity by applying different specifications of GARCH models followed by looking for significant parameters and low information criteria (minimum Akaike Information Criterion. All models are estimated using the maximum likelihood method under the assumption of several distributions of the innovation terms such as: Normal (Gaussian distribution, Student’s t distribution, Generalized Error distribution (GED, Student’s with fixed df. Distribution, and GED with fixed parameter distribution. The predominant models turned out to be EGARCH and PARCH models, and the empirical results point out that the best model for estimating daily returns of EUR/RON exchange rate is EGARCH(2,1 with Asymmetric order 2 under the assumption of Student’s t distributed innovation terms. This can be explained by the fact that in case of EGARCH model, the restriction regarding the positivity of the conditional variance is automatically satisfied.

Dialogic or Dialectic? The Significance of Ontological Assumptions in Research on Educational Dialogue

Science.gov (United States)

Wegerif, Rupert

2008-01-01

This article explores the relationship between ontological assumptions and studies of educational dialogue through a focus on Bakhtin's "dialogic". The term dialogic is frequently appropriated to a modernist framework of assumptions, in particular the neo-Vygotskian or sociocultural tradition. However, Vygotsky's theory of education is dialectic,…

Review and Discussion on the Key Assumptions and Challenges Surrounding the Use of {sup 7}Be as a Soil and Sediment Tracer

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mabit, L. [Soil and Water Management and Crop Nutrition Laboratory, IAEA (Austria); Taylor, A.; Blake, W. H. [School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, Plymouth University (United Kingdom); Smith, H. G. [School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool (United Kingdom); Keith-Roach, M. J. [Kemakta Konsult, Stockholm (Sweden)

2014-01-15

as a hillslope soil erosion tracer unless suitable studies are undertaken to demonstrate otherwise. Plant interception and potential uptake are likely to contribute to significant heterogeneity. Therefore it is vital that a suitable period of radioactive decay separate pre-harvest inventory and pre-harvest sampling. The second key assumption is rapid sorption of the tracer to soil particles. Rapid sorption of {sup 7}Be to soil particles upon fallout is assumed to be at shallow soil depth distributions and laboratory batch studies have been reported on this sorption. Applications of {sup 7}Be as a tracer have overlooked the potential for high rates of infiltration through preferential flow pathways to increase sorption time, thus, influencing depth distributions, which has implications for erosion modelling using current conversion models. Furthermore, there is potential for {sup 7}Be to be transported in the dissolved phase in overland flow and this remains a key area for research to determine the influence of this upon redistribution estimates. As a tracer at the catchment scale, {sup 7}Be offers a unique opportunity to provide an indication of recent sedimentation and the transport of surface material, which could make a significant contribution to catchment management schemes. Successful use at this scale does, however, rest upon support for the third assumption of irreversible sorption to soil particles in a range of environments and such support is currently lacking. Knowledge of {sup 7}Be behaviour with changing physicochemical parameters in fluvial environments is conflicting and there is evidence to suggest that {sup 7}Be may be mobilised under reducing, saline or low pH conditions. Impact upon sorption behaviour is likely to be highly site specific and it is a priority that future laboratory studies are coupled with in situ monitoring of parameters to determine the likelihood for increased tracer mobility under representative conditions and timescales. A

Supporting calculations and assumptions for use in WESF safetyanalysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hey, B.E.

1997-03-07

This document provides a single location for calculations and assumptions used in support of Waste Encapsulation and Storage Facility (WESF) safety analyses. It also provides the technical details and bases necessary to justify the contained results.

Secure Certificateless Signature with Revocation in the Standard Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tung-Tso Tsai

2014-01-01

previously proposed certificateless signature schemes were insecure under a considerably strong security model in the sense that they suffered from outsiders’ key replacement attacks or the attacks from the key generation center (KGC. In this paper, we propose a certificateless signature scheme without random oracles. Moreover, our scheme is secure under the strong security model and provides a public revocation mechanism, called revocable certificateless signature (RCLS. Under the standard computational Diffie-Hellman assumption, we formally demonstrate that our scheme possesses existential unforgeability against adaptive chosen-message attacks.

Calculating Impacts of Energy Standards on Energy Demand in U.S. Buildings under Uncertainty with an Integrated Assessment Model: Technical Background Data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Scott, Michael J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Daly, Don S. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hathaway, John E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Lansing, Carina S. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Liu, Ying [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); McJeon, Haewon C. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Moss, Richard H. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Patel, Pralit L. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Peterson, Marty J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rice, Jennie S. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhou, Yuyu [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

2014-12-06

This report presents data and assumptions employed in an application of PNNL’s Global Change Assessment Model with a newly-developed Monte Carlo analysis capability. The model is used to analyze the impacts of more aggressive U.S. residential and commercial building-energy codes and equipment standards on energy consumption and energy service costs at the state level, explicitly recognizing uncertainty in technology effectiveness and cost, socioeconomics, presence or absence of carbon prices, and climate impacts on energy demand. The report provides a summary of how residential and commercial buildings are modeled, together with assumptions made for the distributions of state–level population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per worker, efficiency and cost of residential and commercial energy equipment by end use, and efficiency and cost of residential and commercial building shells. The cost and performance of equipment and of building shells are reported separately for current building and equipment efficiency standards and for more aggressive standards. The report also details assumptions concerning future improvements brought about by projected trends in technology.

Bayesian Model Selection under Time Constraints

Science.gov (United States)

Hoege, M.; Nowak, W.; Illman, W. A.

2017-12-01

Bayesian model selection (BMS) provides a consistent framework for rating and comparing models in multi-model inference. In cases where models of vastly different complexity compete with each other, we also face vastly different computational runtimes of such models. For instance, time series of a quantity of interest can be simulated by an autoregressive process model that takes even less than a second for one run, or by a partial differential equations-based model with runtimes up to several hours or even days. The classical BMS is based on a quantity called Bayesian model evidence (BME). It determines the model weights in the selection process and resembles a trade-off between bias of a model and its complexity. However, in practice, the runtime of models is another weight relevant factor for model selection. Hence, we believe that it should be included, leading to an overall trade-off problem between bias, variance and computing effort. We approach this triple trade-off from the viewpoint of our ability to generate realizations of the models under a given computational budget. One way to obtain BME values is through sampling-based integration techniques. We argue with the fact that more expensive models can be sampled much less under time constraints than faster models (in straight proportion to their runtime). The computed evidence in favor of a more expensive model is statistically less significant than the evidence computed in favor of a faster model, since sampling-based strategies are always subject to statistical sampling error. We present a straightforward way to include this misbalance into the model weights that are the basis for model selection. Our approach follows directly from the idea of insufficient significance. It is based on a computationally cheap bootstrapping error estimate of model evidence and is easy to implement. The approach is illustrated in a small synthetic modeling study.

Estimation of river and stream temperature trends under haphazard sampling

Science.gov (United States)

Gray, Brian R.; Lyubchich, Vyacheslav; Gel, Yulia R.; Rogala, James T.; Robertson, Dale M.; Wei, Xiaoqiao

2015-01-01

Long-term temporal trends in water temperature in rivers and streams are typically estimated under the assumption of evenly-spaced space-time measurements. However, sampling times and dates associated with historical water temperature datasets and some sampling designs may be haphazard. As a result, trends in temperature may be confounded with trends in time or space of sampling which, in turn, may yield biased trend estimators and thus unreliable conclusions. We address this concern using multilevel (hierarchical) linear models, where time effects are allowed to vary randomly by day and date effects by year. We evaluate the proposed approach by Monte Carlo simulations with imbalance, sparse data and confounding by trend in time and date of sampling. Simulation results indicate unbiased trend estimators while results from a case study of temperature data from the Illinois River, USA conform to river thermal assumptions. We also propose a new nonparametric bootstrap inference on multilevel models that allows for a relatively flexible and distribution-free quantification of uncertainties. The proposed multilevel modeling approach may be elaborated to accommodate nonlinearities within days and years when sampling times or dates typically span temperature extremes.

A simulation study to compare three self-controlled case series approaches: correction for violation of assumption and evaluation of bias.

Science.gov (United States)

Hua, Wei; Sun, Guoying; Dodd, Caitlin N; Romio, Silvana A; Whitaker, Heather J; Izurieta, Hector S; Black, Steven; Sturkenboom, Miriam C J M; Davis, Robert L; Deceuninck, Genevieve; Andrews, N J

2013-08-01

The assumption that the occurrence of outcome event must not alter subsequent exposure probability is critical for preserving the validity of the self-controlled case series (SCCS) method. This assumption is violated in scenarios in which the event constitutes a contraindication for exposure. In this simulation study, we compared the performance of the standard SCCS approach and two alternative approaches when the event-independent exposure assumption was violated. Using the 2009 H1N1 and seasonal influenza vaccines and Guillain-Barré syndrome as a model, we simulated a scenario in which an individual may encounter multiple unordered exposures and each exposure may be contraindicated by the occurrence of outcome event. The degree of contraindication was varied at 0%, 50%, and 100%. The first alternative approach used only cases occurring after exposure with follow-up time starting from exposure. The second used a pseudo-likelihood method. When the event-independent exposure assumption was satisfied, the standard SCCS approach produced nearly unbiased relative incidence estimates. When this assumption was partially or completely violated, two alternative SCCS approaches could be used. While the post-exposure cases only approach could handle only one exposure, the pseudo-likelihood approach was able to correct bias for both exposures. Violation of the event-independent exposure assumption leads to an overestimation of relative incidence which could be corrected by alternative SCCS approaches. In multiple exposure situations, the pseudo-likelihood approach is optimal; the post-exposure cases only approach is limited in handling a second exposure and may introduce additional bias, thus should be used with caution. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

New Equating Methods and Their Relationships with Levine Observed Score Linear Equating under the Kernel Equating Framework

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Haiwen; Holland, Paul

2010-01-01

In this paper, we develop a new curvilinear equating for the nonequivalent groups with anchor test (NEAT) design under the assumption of the classical test theory model, that we name curvilinear Levine observed score equating. In fact, by applying both the kernel equating framework and the mean preserving linear transformation of…

Adiabatic perturbations in pre-big bang models: Matching conditions and scale invariance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Durrer, Ruth; Vernizzi, Filippo

2002-01-01

At low energy, the four-dimensional effective action of the ekpyrotic model of the universe is equivalent to a slightly modified version of the pre-big bang model. We discuss cosmological perturbations in these models. In particular we address the issue of matching the perturbations from a collapsing to an expanding phase. We show that, under certain physically motivated and quite generic assumptions on the high energy corrections, one obtains n=0 for the spectrum of scalar perturbations in the original pre-big bang model (with a vanishing potential). With the same assumptions, when an exponential potential for the dilaton is included, a scale invariant spectrum (n=1) of adiabatic scalar perturbations is produced under very generic matching conditions, both in a modified pre-big bang and ekpyrotic scenario. We also derive the resulting spectrum for arbitrary power law scale factors matched to a radiation-dominated era

Vehicle Modeling for use in the CAFE model: Process description and modeling assumptions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Moawad, Ayman [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Kim, Namdoo [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Rousseau, Aymeric [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

2016-06-01

The objective of this project is to develop and demonstrate a process that, at a minimum, provides more robust information that can be used to calibrate inputs applicable under the CAFE model’s existing structure. The project will be more fully successful if a process can be developed that minimizes the need for decision trees and replaces the synergy factors by inputs provided directly from a vehicle simulation tool. The report provides a description of the process that was developed by Argonne National Laboratory and implemented in Autonomie.

Using different assumptions of aerosol mixing state and chemical composition to predict CCN concentrations based on field measurements in urban Beijing

Science.gov (United States)

Ren, Jingye; Zhang, Fang; Wang, Yuying; Collins, Don; Fan, Xinxin; Jin, Xiaoai; Xu, Weiqi; Sun, Yele; Cribb, Maureen; Li, Zhanqing

2018-05-01

Understanding the impacts of aerosol chemical composition and mixing state on cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activity in polluted areas is crucial for accurately predicting CCN number concentrations (NCCN). In this study, we predict NCCN under five assumed schemes of aerosol chemical composition and mixing state based on field measurements in Beijing during the winter of 2016. Our results show that the best closure is achieved with the assumption of size dependent chemical composition for which sulfate, nitrate, secondary organic aerosols, and aged black carbon are internally mixed with each other but externally mixed with primary organic aerosol and fresh black carbon (external-internal size-resolved, abbreviated as EI-SR scheme). The resulting ratios of predicted-to-measured NCCN (RCCN_p/m) were 0.90 - 0.98 under both clean and polluted conditions. Assumption of an internal mixture and bulk chemical composition (INT-BK scheme) shows good closure with RCCN_p/m of 1.0 -1.16 under clean conditions, implying that it is adequate for CCN prediction in continental clean regions. On polluted days, assuming the aerosol is internally mixed and has a chemical composition that is size dependent (INT-SR scheme) achieves better closure than the INT-BK scheme due to the heterogeneity and variation in particle composition at different sizes. The improved closure achieved using the EI-SR and INT-SR assumptions highlight the importance of measuring size-resolved chemical composition for CCN predictions in polluted regions. NCCN is significantly underestimated (with RCCN_p/m of 0.66 - 0.75) when using the schemes of external mixtures with bulk (EXT-BK scheme) or size-resolved composition (EXT-SR scheme), implying that primary particles experience rapid aging and physical mixing processes in urban Beijing. However, our results show that the aerosol mixing state plays a minor role in CCN prediction when the κorg exceeds 0.1.

Numerical modeling of a vaporizing multicomponent droplet

Science.gov (United States)

Megaridis, C. M.; Sirignano, W. A.

The fundamental processes governing the energy, mass, and momentum exchange between the liquid and gas phases of vaporizing, multicomponent liquid droplets have been investigated. The axisymmetric configuration under consideration consists of an isolated multicomponent droplet vaporizing in a convective environment. The model considers different volatilities of the liquid components, variable liquid properties due to variation of the species concentrations, and non-Fickian multicomponent gaseous diffusion. The bicomponent droplet model was employed to examine the commonly used assumptions of unity Lewis number in the liquid phase and Fickian gaseous diffusion. It is found that the droplet drag coefficients, the vaporization rates, and the related transfer numbers are not influenced by the above assumptions in a significant way.

Experimental assessment of unvalidated assumptions in classical plasticity theory.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brannon, Rebecca Moss (University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT); Burghardt, Jeffrey A. (University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT); Bauer, Stephen J.; Bronowski, David R.

2009-01-01

This report investigates the validity of several key assumptions in classical plasticity theory regarding material response to changes in the loading direction. Three metals, two rock types, and one ceramic were subjected to non-standard loading directions, and the resulting strain response increments were displayed in Gudehus diagrams to illustrate the approximation error of classical plasticity theories. A rigorous mathematical framework for fitting classical theories to the data, thus quantifying the error, is provided. Further data analysis techniques are presented that allow testing for the effect of changes in loading direction without having to use a new sample and for inferring the yield normal and flow directions without having to measure the yield surface. Though the data are inconclusive, there is indication that classical, incrementally linear, plasticity theory may be inadequate over a certain range of loading directions. This range of loading directions also coincides with loading directions that are known to produce a physically inadmissible instability for any nonassociative plasticity model.

Relating Climate Change Risks to Water Supply Planning Assumptions: Recent Applications by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Brekke, L. D.

2009-12-01

Presentation highlights recent methods carried by Reclamation to incorporate climate change and variability information into water supply assumptions for longer-term planning. Presentation also highlights limitations of these methods, and possible method adjustments that might be made to address these limitations. Reclamation was established more than one hundred years ago with a mission centered on the construction of irrigation and hydropower projects in the Western United States. Reclamation’s mission has evolved since its creation to include other activities, including municipal and industrial water supply projects, ecosystem restoration, and the protection and management of water supplies. Reclamation continues to explore ways to better address mission objectives, often considering proposals to develop new infrastructure and/or modify long-term criteria for operations. Such studies typically feature operations analysis to disclose benefits and effects of a given proposal, which are sensitive to assumptions made about future water supplies, water demands, and operating constraints. Development of these assumptions requires consideration to more fundamental future drivers such as land use, demographics, and climate. On the matter of establishing planning assumptions for water supplies under climate change, Reclamation has applied several methods. This presentation highlights two activities where the first focuses on potential changes in hydroclimate frequencies and the second focuses on potential changes in hydroclimate period-statistics. The first activity took place in the Colorado River Basin where there was interest in the interarrival possibilities of drought and surplus events of varying severity relevant to proposals on new criteria for handling lower basin shortages. The second activity occurred in California’s Central Valley where stakeholders were interested in how projected climate change possibilities translated into changes in hydrologic and

Some simple applications of probability models to birth intervals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shrestha, G.

1987-07-01

An attempt has been made in this paper to apply some simple probability models to birth intervals under the assumption of constant fecundability and varying fecundability among women. The parameters of the probability models are estimated by using the method of moments and the method of maximum likelihood. (author). 9 refs, 2 tabs

Towards New Probabilistic Assumptions in Business Intelligence

OpenAIRE

Schumann Andrew; Szelc Andrzej

2015-01-01

One of the main assumptions of mathematical tools in science is represented by the idea of measurability and additivity of reality. For discovering the physical universe additive measures such as mass, force, energy, temperature, etc. are used. Economics and conventional business intelligence try to continue this empiricist tradition and in statistical and econometric tools they appeal only to the measurable aspects of reality. However, a lot of important variables of economic systems cannot ...

A constitutive model for AS4/PEEK thermoplastic composites under cyclic loading

Science.gov (United States)

Rui, Yuting; Sun, C. T.

1990-01-01

Based on the basic and essential features of the elastic-plastic response of the AS4/PEEK thermoplastic composite subjected to off-axis cyclic loadings, a simple rate-independent constitutive model is proposed to describe the orthotropic material behavior for cyclic loadings. A one-parameter memory surface is introduced to distinguish the virgin deformation and the subsequent deformation process and to characterize the loading range effect. Cyclic softening is characterized by the change of generalized plastic modulus. By the vanishing yield surface assumption, a yield criterion is not needed and it is not necessary to consider loading and unloading separately. The model is compared with experimental results and good agreement is obtained.

Haldane model under nonuniform strain

Science.gov (United States)

Ho, Yen-Hung; Castro, Eduardo V.; Cazalilla, Miguel A.

2017-10-01

We study the Haldane model under strain using a tight-binding approach, and compare the obtained results with the continuum-limit approximation. As in graphene, nonuniform strain leads to a time-reversal preserving pseudomagnetic field that induces (pseudo-)Landau levels. Unlike a real magnetic field, strain lifts the degeneracy of the zeroth pseudo-Landau levels at different valleys. Moreover, for the zigzag edge under uniaxial strain, strain removes the degeneracy within the pseudo-Landau levels by inducing a tilt in their energy dispersion. The latter arises from next-to-leading order corrections to the continuum-limit Hamiltonian, which are absent for a real magnetic field. We show that, for the lowest pseudo-Landau levels in the Haldane model, the dominant contribution to the tilt is different from graphene. In addition, although strain does not strongly modify the dispersion of the edge states, their interplay with the pseudo-Landau levels is different for the armchair and zigzag ribbons. Finally, we study the effect of strain in the band structure of the Haldane model at the critical point of the topological transition, thus shedding light on the interplay between nontrivial topology and strain in quantum anomalous Hall systems.

Halo-Independent Direct Detection Analyses Without Mass Assumptions

CERN Document Server

Anderson, Adam J.; Kahn, Yonatan; McCullough, Matthew

2015-10-06

Results from direct detection experiments are typically interpreted by employing an assumption about the dark matter velocity distribution, with results presented in the $m_\\chi-\\sigma_n$ plane. Recently methods which are independent of the DM halo velocity distribution have been developed which present results in the $v_{min}-\\tilde{g}$ plane, but these in turn require an assumption on the dark matter mass. Here we present an extension of these halo-independent methods for dark matter direct detection which does not require a fiducial choice of the dark matter mass. With a change of variables from $v_{min}$ to nuclear recoil momentum ($p_R$), the full halo-independent content of an experimental result for any dark matter mass can be condensed into a single plot as a function of a new halo integral variable, which we call $\\tilde{h}(p_R)$. The entire family of conventional halo-independent $\\tilde{g}(v_{min})$ plots for all DM masses are directly found from the single $\\tilde{h}(p_R)$ plot through a simple re...

Heterosexual assumptions in verbal and non-verbal communication in nursing.

Science.gov (United States)

Röndahl, Gerd; Innala, Sune; Carlsson, Marianne

2006-11-01

This paper reports a study of what lesbian women and gay men had to say, as patients and as partners, about their experiences of nursing in hospital care, and what they regarded as important to communicate about homosexuality and nursing. The social life of heterosexual cultures is based on the assumption that all people are heterosexual, thereby making homosexuality socially invisible. Nurses may assume that all patients and significant others are heterosexual, and these heteronormative assumptions may lead to poor communication that affects nursing quality by leading nurses to ask the wrong questions and make incorrect judgements. A qualitative interview study was carried out in the spring of 2004. Seventeen women and 10 men ranging in age from 23 to 65 years from different parts of Sweden participated. They described 46 experiences as patients and 31 as partners. Heteronormativity was communicated in waiting rooms, in patient documents and when registering for admission, and nursing staff sometimes showed perplexity when an informant deviated from this heteronormative assumption. Informants had often met nursing staff who showed fear of behaving incorrectly, which could lead to a sense of insecurity, thereby impeding further communication. As partners of gay patients, informants felt that they had to deal with heterosexual assumptions more than they did when they were patients, and the consequences were feelings of not being accepted as a 'true' relative, of exclusion and neglect. Almost all participants offered recommendations about how nursing staff could facilitate communication. Heterosexual norms communicated unconsciously by nursing staff contribute to ambivalent attitudes and feelings of insecurity that prevent communication and easily lead to misconceptions. Educational and management interventions, as well as increased communication, could make gay people more visible and thereby encourage openness and awareness by hospital staff of the norms that they

Assumptions of Customer Knowledge Enablement in the Open Innovation Process

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jokubauskienė Raminta

2017-08-01

Full Text Available In the scientific literature, open innovation is one of the most effective means to innovate and gain a competitive advantage. In practice, there is a variety of open innovation activities, but, nevertheless, customers stand as the cornerstone in this area, since the customers’ knowledge is one of the most important sources of new knowledge and ideas. Evaluating the context where are the interactions of open innovation and customer knowledge enablement, it is necessary to take into account the importance of customer knowledge management. Increasingly it is highlighted that customers’ knowledge management facilitates the creation of innovations. However, it should be an examination of other factors that influence the open innovation, and, at the same time, customers’ knowledge management. This article presents a theoretical model, which reveals the assumptions of open innovation process and the impact on the firm’s performance.

The pricing of credit default swaps under a generalized mixed fractional Brownian motion

Science.gov (United States)

He, Xinjiang; Chen, Wenting

2014-06-01

In this paper, we consider the pricing of the CDS (credit default swap) under a GMFBM (generalized mixed fractional Brownian motion) model. As the name suggests, the GMFBM model is indeed a generalization of all the FBM (fractional Brownian motion) models used in the literature, and is proved to be able to effectively capture the long-range dependence of the stock returns. To develop the pricing mechanics of the CDS, we firstly derive a sufficient condition for the market modeled under the GMFBM to be arbitrage free. Then under the risk-neutral assumption, the CDS is fairly priced by investigating the two legs of the cash flow involved. The price we obtained involves elementary functions only, and can be easily implemented for practical purpose. Finally, based on numerical experiments, we analyze quantitatively the impacts of different parameters on the prices of the CDS. Interestingly, in comparison with all the other FBM models documented in the literature, the results produced from the GMFBM model are in a better agreement with those calculated from the classical Black-Scholes model.

Observing gravitational-wave transient GW150914 with minimal assumptions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Abbott, B. P.; Abbott, R.; Abbott, T. D.; Abernathy, M. R.; Acernese, F.; Ackley, K.; Adams, C.; Phythian-Adams, A.T.; Addesso, P.; Adhikari, R. X.; Adya, V. B.; Affeldt, C.; Agathos, M.; Agatsuma, K.; Aggarwa, N.; Aguiar, O. D.; Aiello, L.; Ain, A.; Ajith, P.; Allen, B.; Allocca, A.; Altin, P. A.; Anderson, S. B.; Anderson, W. C.; Arai, K.; Araya, M. C.; Arceneaux, C. C.; Areeda, J. S.; Arnaud, N.; Arun, K. G.; Ascenzi, S.; Ashton, G.; Ast, M.; Aston, S. M.; Astone, P.; Aufmuth, P.; Aulbert, C.; Babak, S.; Bacon, P.; Bader, M. K. M.; Baker, P. T.; Baldaccini, F.; Ballardin, G.; Ballmer, S. W.; Barayoga, J. C.; Barclay, S. E.; Barish, B. C.; Barker, R.D.; Barone, F.; Barr, B.; Barsotti, L.; Barsuglia, M.; Barta, D.; Bartlett, J.; Bartos, I.; Bassiri, R.; Basti, A.; Batch, J. C.; Baune, C.; Bavigadda, V.; Bazzan, M.; Behnke, B.; Bejger, M.; Bell, A. S.; Bell, C. J.; Berger, B. K.; Bergman, J.; Bergmann, G.; Berry, C. P. L.; Bersanetti, D.; Bertolini, A.; Betzwieser, J.; Bhagwat, S.; Bhandare, R.; Bilenko, I. A.; Billingsley, G.; Birch, M.J.; Birney, R.; Biscans, S.; Bisht, A.; Bitossi, M.; Biwer, C.; Bizouard, M. A.; Blackburn, J. K.; Blackburn, L.; Blair, C. D.; Blair, D. G.; Blair, R. M.; Bloemen, A.L.S.; Bock, O.; Bodiya, T. P.; Boer, M.; Bogaert, J.G.; Bogan, C.; Bohe, A.; Bojtos, P.; Bond, T.C; Bondu, F.; Bonnand, R.; Boom, B. A.; Bork, R.; Boschi, V.; Bose, S.; Bouffanais, Y.; Bozzi, A.; Bradaschia, C.; Brady, P. R.; Braginsky, V. B.; Branchesi, M.; Brau, J. E.; Briant, T.; Brillet, A.; Brinkmann, M.; Brisson, V.; Brocki, P.; Brooks, A. F.; Brown, A.D.; Brown, D.; Brown, N. M.; Buchanan, C. C.; Buikema, A.; Bulik, T.; Bulten, H. J.; Buonanno, A.; Buskulic, D.; Buy, C.; Byer, R. L.; Cadonati, L.; Cagnoli, G.; Cahillane, C.; Calderon Bustillo, J.; Callister, T. A.; Calloni, E.; Camp, J. B.; Cannon, K. C.; Cao, J.; Capano, C. D.; Capocasa, E.; Carbognani, F.; Caride, S.; Diaz, J. Casanueva; Casentini, C.; Caudill, S.; Cavaglia, M.; Cavalier, F.; Cavalieri, R.; Cella, G.; Cepeda, C. B.; Baiardi, L. Cerboni; Cerretani, G.; Cesarini, E.; Chakraborty, R.; Chatterji, S.; Chalermsongsak, T.; Chamberlin, S. J.; Chan, M.; Chao, D. S.; Charlton, P.; Chassande-Mottin, E.; Chen, H. Y.; Chen, Y; Cheng, C.; Chincarini, A.; Chiummo, A.; Cho, H. S.; Cho, M.; Chow, J. H.; Christensen, N.; Chu, Qian; Chua, S. E.; Chung, E.S.; Ciani, G.; Clara, F.; Clark, J. A.; Clark, M.; Cleva, F.; Coccia, E.; Cohadon, P. -F.; Colla, A.; Collette, C. G.; Cominsky, L.; Constancio, M., Jr.; Conte, A.; Conti, L.; Cook, D.; Corbitt, T. R.; Cornish, N.; Corsi, A.; Cortese, S.; Costa, A.C.; Coughlin, M. W.; Coughlin, S. B.; Coulon, J. -P.; Countryman, S. T.; Couvares, P.; Cowan, E. E.; Coward, D. M.; Cowart, M. J.; Coyne, D. C.; Coyne, R.; Craig, K.; Creighton, J. D. E.; Cripe, J.; Crowder, S. G.; Cumming, A.; Cunningham, A.L.; Cuoco, E.; Dal Canton, T.; Danilishin, S. L.; D'Antonio, S.; Danzmann, K.; Darman, N. S.; Dattilo, V.; Dave, I.; Daveloza, H. P.; Davier, M.; Davies, G. S.; Daw, E. J.; Day, R.; Debra, D.; Debreczeni, G.; Degallaix, J.; De laurentis, M.; Deleglise, S.; Del Pozzo, W.; Denker, T.; Dent, T.; Dereli, H.; Dergachev, V.A.; DeRosa, R. T.; Rosa, R.; DeSalvo, R.; Dhurandhar, S.; Diaz, M. C.; Di Fiore, L.; Giovanni, M.G.; Di Lieto, A.; Di Pace, S.; Di Palma, I.; Di Virgilio, A.; Dojcinoski, G.; Dolique, V.; Donovan, F.; Dooley, K. L.; Doravari, S.; Douglas, R.; Downes, T. P.; Drago, M.; Drever, R. W. P.; Driggers, J. C.; Du, Z.; Ducrot, M.; Dwyer, S. E.; Edo, T. B.; Edwards, M. C.; Effler, A.; Eggenstein, H. -B.; Ehrens, P.; Eichholz, J.; Eikenberry, S. S.; Engels, W.; Essick, R. C.; Etzel, T.; Evans, T. M.; Evans, T. M.; Everett, R.; Factourovich, M.; Fafone, V.; Fair, H.; Fairhurst, S.; Fan, X.M.; Fang, Q.; Farinon, S.; Farr, B.; Farr, W. M.; Favata, M.; Fays, M.; Fehrmann, H.; Fejer, M. M.; Ferrante, I.; Ferreira, E. C.; Ferrini, F.; Fidecaro, F.; Fiori, I.; Fiorucci, D.; Fisher, R. R.; Flaminio, R.; Fletcher, M; Fournier, J. -D.; Franco, S; Frasca, S.; Frasconi, F.; Frei, Z.; Freise, A.; Frey, R.; Frey, V.; Fricke, T. T.; Fritsche, P.; Frolov, V. V.; Fulda, P.; Fyffe, M.; Gabbard, H. A. G.; Gair, J. R.; Gammaitoni, L.; Gaonkar, S. G.; Garufi, F.; Gatto, A.; Gaur, G.; Gehrels, N.; Gemme, G.; Gendre, B.; Genin, E.; Gennai, A.; George, J.; Gergely, L.; Germain, V.; Ghosh, Archisman; Ghosh, S.; Giaime, J. A.; Giardina, K. D.; Giazotto, A.; Gill, K.P.; Glaefke, A.; Goetz, E.; Goetz, R.; Gondan, L.; Gonzalez, Idelmis G.; Castro, J. M. Gonzalez; Gopakumar, A.; Gordon, N. A.; Gorodetsky, M. L.; Gossan, S. E.; Lee-Gosselin, M.; Gouaty, R.; Graef, C.; Graff, P. B.; Granata, M.; Grant, A.; Gras, S.; Gray, C.M.; Greco, G.; Green, A. C.; Groot, P.; Grote, H.; Grunewald, S.; Guidi, G. M.; Guo, X.; Gupta, A.; Gupta, M. K.; Gushwa, K. E.; Gustafson, E. K.; Gustafson, R.; de Haas, R.; Hacker, J. J.; Buffoni-Hall, R.; Hall, E. D.; Hammond, G.L.; Haney, M.; Hanke, M. M.; Hanks, J.; Hanna, C.; Hannam, M. D.; Hanson, P.J.; Hardwick, T.; Harms, J.; Harry, G. M.; Harry, I. W.; Hart, M. J.; Hartman, M. T.; Haster, C. -J.; Haughian, K.; Healy, J.; Heidmann, A.; Heintze, M. C.; Heitmann, H.; Hello, P.; Hemming, G.; Hendry, M.; Heng, I. S.; Hennig, J.; Heptonstall, A. W.; Heurs, M.; Hild, S.; Hinder, I.; Hoak, D.; Hodge, K. A.; Hofman, D.; Hollitt, S. E.; Holt, K.; Holz, D. E.; Hopkins, P.; Hosken, D. J.; Hough, J.; Houston, E. A.; Howell, E. J.; Hu, Y. M.; Huang, S.; Huerta, E. A.; Huet, D.; Hughey, B.; Husa, S.; Huttner, S. H.; Huynh-Dinh, T.; Idrisy, A.; Indik, N.; Ingram, D. R.; Inta, R.; Isa, H. N.; Isac, J. -M.; Isi, M.; Islas, G.; Isogai, T.; Iyer, B. R.; Izumi, K.; Jacqmin, T.; Jang, D.H.; Jani, K.; Jaranowski, P.; Jawahar, S.; Jimenez-Forteza, F.; Johnson, W.; Jones, I.D.; Jones, R.; Jonker, R. J. G.; Ju, L.; Haris, K.; Kalaghatgi, C. V.; Kalogera, V.; Kandhasamy, S.; Kang, G.H.; Kanner, J. B.; Karki, S.; Kasprzack, M.; Katsavounidis, E.; Katzman, W.; Kaufer, S.; Kaur, T.; Kawabe, K.; Kawazoe, F.; Kefelian, F.; Kehl, M. S.; Keitel, D.; Kelley, D. B.; Kells, W.; Kennedy, R.E.; Key, J. S.; Khalaidovski, A.; Khalili, F. Y.; Khan, I.; Khan., S.; Khan, Z.; Khazanov, E. A.; Kijhunchoo, N.; Kim, C.; Kim, J.; Kim, K.; Kim, Nam-Gyu; Kim, Namjun; Kim, Y.M.; King, E. J.; King, P. J.; Kinsey, M.; Kinzel, D. L.; Kissel, J. S.; Kleybolte, L.; Klimenko, S.; Koehlenbeck, S. M.; Kokeyama, K.; Koley, S.; Kondrashov, V.; Kontos, A.; Korobko, M.; Korth, W. Z.; Kowalska, I.; Kozak, D. B.; Kringel, V.; Krolak, A.; Krueger, C.; Kuehn, G.; Kumar, P.; Kuo, L.; Kutynia, A.; Lackey, B. D.; Laguna, P.; Landry, M.; Lange, J.; Lantz, B.; Lasky, P. D.; Lazzarini, A.; Lazzaro, C.; Leaci, R.; Leavey, S.; Lebigot, E. O.; Lee, C.H.; Lee, K.H.; Lee, M.H.; Lee, K.; Lenon, A.; Leonardi, M.; Leong, J. R.; Leroy, N.; Letendre, N.; Levin, Y.; Levine, B. M.; Li, T. G. F.; Libson, A.; Littenberg, T. B.; Lockerbie, N. A.; Logue, J.; Lombardi, A. L.; Lord, J. E.; Lorenzini, M.; Loriette, V.; Lormand, M.; Losurdo, G.; Lough, J. D.; Lueck, H.; Lundgren, A. P.; Luo, J.; Lynch, R.; Ma, Y.; MacDonald, T.T.; Machenschalk, B.; MacInnis, M.; Macleod, D. M.; Magana-Sandoval, F.; Magee, R. M.; Mageswaran, M.; Majorana, E.; Maksimovic, I.; Malvezzi, V.; Man, N.; Mandel, I.; Mandic, V.; Mangano, V.; Mansell, G. L.; Manske, M.; Mantovani, M.; Marchesoni, F.; Marion, F.; Marka, S.; Marka, Z.; Markosyan, A. S.; Maros, E.; Martelli, F.; Martellini, L.; Martin, I. W.; Martin, R.M.; Martynov, D. V.; Marx, J. N.; Mason, K.; Masserot, A.; Massinger, T. J.; Masso-Reid, M.; Matichard, F.; Matone, L.; Mavalvala, N.; Mazumder, N.; Mazzolo, G.; McCarthy, R.; McClelland, D. E.; McCormick, S.; McGuire, S. C.; McIntyre, G.; McIver, J.; McManus, D. J.; McWilliams, S. T.; Meacher, D.; Meadors, G. D.; Meidam, J.; Melatos, A.; Mende, G.; Mendoza-Gandara, D.; Mercer, R. A.; Merilh, E. L.; Merzougui, M.; Meshkov, S.; Messenger, C.; Messick, C.; Meyers, P. M.; Mezzani, F.; Miao, H.; Michel, C.; Middleton, H.; Mikhailov, E. E.; Milano, L.; Miller, J.; Millhouse, M.; Minenkov, Y.; Ming, J.; Mirshekari, S.; Mishra, C.; Mitra, S.; Mitrofanov, V. P.; Mitselmakher, G.; Mittleman, R.; Moggi, A.; Mohan, M.; Mohapatra, S. R. P.; Montani, M.; Moore, B.C.; Moore, J.C.; Moraru, D.; Gutierrez Moreno, M.; Morriss, S. R.; Mossavi, K.; Mours, B.; Mow-Lowry, C. M.; Mueller, C. L.; Mueller, G.; Muir, A. W.; Mukherjee, Arunava; Mukherjee, S.D.; Mukherjee, S.; Mukund, N.; Mullavey, A.; Munch, J.; Murphy, D. J.; Murray, P.G.; Mytidis, A.; Nardecchia, I.; Naticchioni, L.; Nayak, R. K.; Necula, V.; Nedkova, K.; Nelemans, G.; Gutierrez-Neri, M.; Neunzert, A.; Newton-Howes, G.; Nguyen, T. T.; Nielsen, A. B.; Nissanke, S.; Nitz, A.; Nocera, F.; Nolting, D.; Normandin, M. E. N.; Nuttall, L. K.; Oberling, J.; Ochsner, E.; O'Dell, J.; Oelker, E.; Ogin, G. H.; Oh, J.; Oh, S. H.; Ohme, F.; Oliver, M. B.; Oppermann, P.; Oram, Richard J.; O'Reilly, B.; O'Shaughnessy, R.; Ottaway, D. J.; Ottens, R. S.; Overmier, H.; Owen, B. J.; Pai, A.; Pai, S. A.; Palamos, J. R.; Palashov, O.; Palomba, C.; Pal-Singh, A.; Pan, H.; Pankow, C.; Pannarale, F.; Pant, B. C.; Paoletti, F.; Paoli, A.; Papa, M. A.; Page, J.; Paris, H. R.; Parker, W.S; Pascucci, D.; Pasqualetti, A.; Passaquieti, R.; Passuello, D.; Patricelli, B.; Patrick, Z.; Pearlstone, B. L.; Pedraza, M.; Pedurand, R.; Pekowsky, L.; Pele, A.; Penn, S.; Perreca, A.; Phelps, M.; Piccinni, O. J.; Pichot, M.; Piergiovanni, F.; Pierro, V.; Pillant, G.; Pinard, L.; Pinto, I. M.; Pitkin, M.; Poggiani, R.; Popolizio, P.; Post, A.; Powell, J.; Prasad, J.; Predoi, V.; Premachandra, S. S.; Prestegard, T.; Price, L. R.; Prijatelj, M.; Principe, M.; Privitera, S.; Prodi, G. A.; Prolchorov, L.; Puncken, O.; Punturo, M.; Puppo, P.; Puerrer, M.; Qi, H.; Qin, J.; Quetschke, V.; Quintero, E. A.; Quitzow-James, R.; Raab, F. J.; Rabeling, D. S.; Radkins, H.; Raffai, P.; Raja, S.; Rakhmanov, M.; Rapagnani, P.; Raymond, V.; Razzano, M.; Re, V.; Read, J.; Reed, C. M.; Regimbau, T.; Rei, L.; Reid, S.; Reitze, D. H.; Rew, H.; Reyes, S. D.; Ricci, F.; Riles, K.; Robertson, N. A.; Robie, R.; Robinet, F.; Rocchi, A.; Rolland, L.; Rollins, J. G.; Roma, V. J.; Romano, R.; Romanov, G.; Romie, J. H.; Rosinska, D.; Rowan, S.; Ruediger, A.; Ruggi, P.; Ryan, K.A.; Sachdev, P.S.; Sadecki, T.; Sadeghian, L.; Salconi, L.; Saleem, M.; Salemi, F.; Samajdar, A.; Sammut, L.; Sanchez, E. J.; Sandberg, V.; Sandeen, B.; Sanders, J. R.; Sassolas, B.; Sathyaprakash, B. S.; Saulson, P. R.; Sauter, O.; Savage, R. L.; Sawadsky, A.; Schale, P.; Schilling, R.; Schmidt, J; Schmidt, P.; Schnabel, R.B.; Schofield, R. M. S.; Schoenbeck, A.; Schreiber, K.E.C.; Schuette, D.; Schutz, B. F.; Scott, J.; Scott, M.S.; Sellers, D.; Sengupta, A. S.; Sentenac, D.; Sequino, V.; Sergeev, A.; Serna, G.; Setyawati, Y.; Sevigny, A.; Shaddock, D. A.; Shah, S.; Shithriar, M. S.; Shaltev, M.; Shao, Z.M.; Shapiro, B.; Shawhan, P.; Sheperd, A.; Shoemaker, D. H.; Shoemaker, D. M.; Siellez, K.; Siemens, X.; Sigg, D.; Silva, António Dias da; Simakov, D.; Singer, A; Singer, L. P.; Singh, A.; Singh, R.; Singhal, A.; Sintes, A. M.; Slagmolen, B. J. J.; Smith, R. J. E.; Smith, N.D.; Smith, R. J. E.; Son, E. J.; Sorazu, B.; Sorrentino, F.; Souradeep, T.; Srivastava, A. K.; Staley, A.; Steinke, M.; Steinlechner, J.; Steinlechner, S.; Steinmeyer, D.; Stephens, B. C.; Stone, J.R.; Strain, K. A.; Straniero, N.; Stratta, G.; Strauss, N. A.; Strigin, S. E.; Sturani, R.; Stuver, A. L.; Summerscales, T. Z.; Sun, L.; Sutton, P. J.; Swinkels, B. L.; Szczepanczyk, M. J.; Tacca, M.D.; Talukder, D.; Tanner, D. B.; Tapai, M.; Tarabrin, S. P.; Taracchini, A.; Taylor, W.R.; Theeg, T.; Thirugnanasambandam, M. P.; Thomas, E. G.; Thomas, M.; Thomas, P.; Thorne, K. A.; Thorne, K. S.; Thrane, E.; Tiwari, S.; Tiwari, V.; Tokmakov, K. V.; Tomlinson, C.; Tonelli, M.; Torres, C. V.; Torrie, C. I.; Toyra, D.; Travasso, F.; Traylor, G.; Trifiro, D.; Tringali, M. C.; Trozzo, L.; Tse, M.; Turconi, M.; Tuyenbayev, D.; Ugolini, D.; Unnikrishnan, C. S.; Urban, A. L.; Usman, S. A.; Vahlhruch, H.; Vajente, G.; Valdes, G.; Van Bakel, N.; Van Beuzekom, Martin; Van den Brand, J. F. J.; Van Den Broeck, C.F.F.; Vander-Hyde, D. C.; van der Schaaf, L.; van Heijningen, J. V.; van Veggel, A. A.; Vardaro, M.; Vass, S.; Vasuth, M.; Vaulin, R.; Vecchio, A.; Vedovato, G.; Veitch, J.; Veitch, R. J.; Venkateswara, K.; Verkindt, D.; Vetrano, F.; Vicere, A.; Vinciguerra, S.; Vine, D. J.; Vinet, J. -Y.; Vitale, S.; Vo, T.; Vocca, H.; Vorvick, C.; Voss, D. V.; Vousden, W. D.; Vyatchanin, S. P.; Wade, A. R.; Wade, L. E.; Wade, MT; Walker, M.; Wallace, L.; Walsh, S.; Wang, G.; Wang, H.; Wang, M.; Wang, X.; Wang, Y.; Ward, R. L.; Warner, J.; Was, M.; Weaver, B.; Wei, L. -W.; Weinert, M.; Weinstein, A. J.; Weiss, R.; Welborn, T.; Wen, L.M.; Wessels, P.; Westphal, T.; Wette, K.; Whelan, J. T.; White, D. J.; Whiting, B. F.; Williams, D.; Williams, D.R.; Williamson, A. R.; Willis, J. L.; Willke, B.; Wimmer, M. H.; Winkler, W.; Wipf, C. C.; Wittel, H.; Woan, G.; Worden, J.; Wright, J.L.; Wu, G.; Yablon, J.; Yam, W.; Yamamoto, H.; Yancey, C. C.; Yap, M. J.; Yu, H.; Yvert, M.; Zadrozny, A.; Zangrando, L.; Zanolin, M.; Zendri, J. -P.; Zevin, M.; Zhang, F.; Zhang, L.; Zhang, M.; Zhang, Y.; Zhao, C.; Zhou, M.; Zhou, Z.; Zhu, X. J.; Zucker, M. E.; Zuraw, S. E.; Zweizig, J.

2016-01-01

The gravitational-wave signal GW150914 was first identified on September 14, 2015, by searches for short-duration gravitational-wave transients. These searches identify time-correlated transients in multiple detectors with minimal assumptions about the signal morphology, allowing them to be

Comparisons between a new point kernel-based scheme and the infinite plane source assumption method for radiation calculation of deposited airborne radionuclides from nuclear power plants.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Xiaole; Efthimiou, George; Wang, Yan; Huang, Meng

2018-04-01

Radiation from the deposited radionuclides is indispensable information for environmental impact assessment of nuclear power plants and emergency management during nuclear accidents. Ground shine estimation is related to multiple physical processes, including atmospheric dispersion, deposition, soil and air radiation shielding. It still remains unclear that whether the normally adopted "infinite plane" source assumption for the ground shine calculation is accurate enough, especially for the area with highly heterogeneous deposition distribution near the release point. In this study, a new ground shine calculation scheme, which accounts for both the spatial deposition distribution and the properties of air and soil layers, is developed based on point kernel method. Two sets of "detector-centered" grids are proposed and optimized for both the deposition and radiation calculations to better simulate the results measured by the detectors, which will be beneficial for the applications such as source term estimation. The evaluation against the available data of Monte Carlo methods in the literature indicates that the errors of the new scheme are within 5% for the key radionuclides in nuclear accidents. The comparisons between the new scheme and "infinite plane" assumption indicate that the assumption is tenable (relative errors within 20%) for the area located 1 km away from the release source. Within 1 km range, the assumption mainly causes errors for wet deposition and the errors are independent of rain intensities. The results suggest that the new scheme should be adopted if the detectors are within 1 km from the source under the stable atmosphere (classes E and F), or the detectors are within 500 m under slightly unstable (class C) or neutral (class D) atmosphere. Otherwise, the infinite plane assumption is reasonable since the relative errors induced by this assumption are within 20%. The results here are only based on theoretical investigations. They should

Review and comparison of bi-fluid interpenetration mixing models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Enaux, C.

2006-01-01

Today, there is a lot of bi-fluid models with two different speeds: Baer-Nunziato models; Godunov-Romensky models. coupled Euler's equations, and so on. In this report, one compares the most used models in the fields of physics and mathematics while basing this study on the literature. From the point of view of physics. for each model. one reviews: -) the type of mixture considered and modeling assumptions, -) the technique of construction, -) some properties like the respect of thermodynamical principles, the respect of the Galilean invariance principle, or the equilibrium conservation. From the point of view of mathematics, for each model, one looks at: -) the possibility of writing the equations in conservative form, -) hyperbolicity, -) the existence of a mathematical entropy. Finally, a unified review of the models is proposed. It is shown that under certain closing assumptions or for certain flow types. some of the models become equivalent. (author)

Radionuclide Transport Models Under Ambient Conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moridis, G.; Hu, Q.

2001-01-01

The purpose of Revision 00 of this Analysis/Model Report (AMR) is to evaluate (by means of 2-D semianalytical and 3-D numerical models) the transport of radioactive solutes and colloids in the unsaturated zone (UZ) under ambient conditions from the potential repository horizon to the water table at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada

Homogenization of neutronic diffusion models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Capdebosq, Y.

1999-09-01

In order to study and simulate nuclear reactor cores, one needs to access the neutron distribution in the core. In practice, the description of this density of neutrons is given by a system of diffusion equations, coupled by non differential exchange terms. The strong heterogeneity of the medium constitutes a major obstacle to the numerical computation of this models at reasonable cost. Homogenization appears as compulsory. Heuristic methods have been developed since the origin by nuclear physicists, under a periodicity assumption on the coefficients. They consist in doing a fine computation one a single periodicity cell, to solve the system on the whole domain with homogeneous coefficients, and to reconstruct the neutron density by multiplying the solutions of the two computations. The objectives of this work are to provide mathematically rigorous basis to this factorization method, to obtain the exact formulas of the homogenized coefficients, and to start on geometries where two periodical medium are placed side by side. The first result of this thesis concerns eigenvalue problem models which are used to characterize the state of criticality of the reactor, under a symmetry assumption on the coefficients. The convergence of the homogenization process is proved, and formulas of the homogenized coefficients are given. We then show that without symmetry assumptions, a drift phenomenon appears. It is characterized by the mean of a real Bloch wave method, which gives the homogenized limit in the general case. These results for the critical problem are then adapted to the evolution model. Finally, the homogenization of the critical problem in the case of two side by side periodic medium is studied on a one dimensional on equation model. (authors)

The 'revealed preferences' theory: Assumptions and conjectures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Green, C.H.

1983-01-01

Being kind of intuitive psychology the 'Revealed-Preferences'- theory based approaches towards determining the acceptable risks are a useful method for the generation of hypotheses. In view of the fact that reliability engineering develops faster than methods for the determination of reliability aims the Revealed-Preferences approach is a necessary preliminary help. Some of the assumptions on which the 'Revealed-Preferences' theory is based will be identified and analysed and afterwards compared with experimentally obtained results. (orig./DG) [de

Using bayesian models to assess the effects of under-reporting of cannabis use on the association with birth defects, national birth defects prevention study, 1997-2005.

Science.gov (United States)

van Gelder, Marleen M H J; Donders, A Rogier T; Devine, Owen; Roeleveld, Nel; Reefhuis, Jennita

2014-09-01

Studies on associations between periconceptional cannabis exposure and birth defects have mainly relied on self-reported exposure. Therefore, the results may be biased due to under-reporting of the exposure. The aim of this study was to quantify the potential effects of this form of exposure misclassification. Using multivariable logistic regression, we re-analysed associations between periconceptional cannabis use and 20 specific birth defects using data from the National Birth Defects Prevention Study from 1997-2005 for 13 859 case infants and 6556 control infants. For seven birth defects, we implemented four Bayesian models based on various assumptions concerning the sensitivity of self-reported cannabis use to estimate odds ratios (ORs), adjusted for confounding and under-reporting of the exposure. We used information on sensitivity of self-reported cannabis use from the literature for prior assumptions. The results unadjusted for under-reporting of the exposure showed an association between cannabis use and anencephaly (posterior OR 1.9 [95% credible interval (CRI) 1.1, 3.2]) which persisted after adjustment for potential exposure misclassification. Initially, no statistically significant associations were observed between cannabis use and the other birth defect categories studied. Although adjustment for under-reporting did not notably change these effect estimates, cannabis use was associated with esophageal atresia (posterior OR 1.7 [95% CRI 1.0, 2.9]), diaphragmatic hernia (posterior OR 1.8 [95% CRI 1.1, 3.0]), and gastroschisis (posterior OR 1.7 [95% CRI 1.2, 2.3]) after correction for exposure misclassification. Under-reporting of the exposure may have obscured some cannabis-birth defect associations in previous studies. However, the resulting bias is likely to be limited. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Analysis On Political Speech Of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono: Common Sense Assumption And Ideology

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sayit Abdul Karim

2015-10-01

Full Text Available This paper presents an analysis on political speech of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY, the former president of Indonesia at the Indonesian conference on “Moving towards sustainability: together we must create the future we want”. Ideologies are closely linked to power and language because using language is the commonest form of social behavior, and the form of social behavior where we rely most on ‘common-sense’ assumptions. The objectives of this study are to discuss the common sense assumption and ideology by means of language use in SBY’s political speech which is mainly grounded in Norman Fairclough’s theory of language and power in critical discourse analysis. There are two main problems of analysis, namely; first, what are the common sense assumption and ideology in Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s political speech; and second, how do they relate to each other in the political discourse? The data used in this study was in the form of written text on “moving towards sustainability: together we must create the future we want”. A qualitative descriptive analysis was employed to analyze the common sense assumption and ideology in the written text of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s political speech which was delivered at Riocto entro Convention Center, Rio de Janeiro on June 20, 2012. One dimension of ‘common sense’ is the meaning of words. The results showed that the common sense assumption and ideology conveyed through SBY’s specific words or expressions can significantly explain how political discourse is constructed and affected by the SBY’s rule and position, life experience, and power relations. He used language as a powerful social tool to present his common sense assumption and ideology to convince his audiences and fellow citizens that the future of sustainability has been an important agenda for all people.

Discourses and Theoretical Assumptions in IT Project Portfolio Management

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Lars Kristian; Kræmmergaard, Pernille

2014-01-01

DISCOURSES AND THEORETICAL ASSUMPTIONS IN IT PROJECT PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT: A REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE These years increasing interest is put on IT project portfolio management (IT PPM). Considering IT PPM an interdisciplinary practice, we conduct a concept-based literature review of relevant...

Phase-field modeling of corrosion kinetics under dual-oxidants

Science.gov (United States)

Wen, You-Hai; Chen, Long-Qing; Hawk, Jeffrey A.

2012-04-01

A phase-field model is proposed to simulate corrosion kinetics under a dual-oxidant atmosphere. It will be demonstrated that the model can be applied to simulate corrosion kinetics under oxidation, sulfidation and simultaneous oxidation/sulfidation processes. Phase-dependent diffusivities are incorporated in a natural manner and allow more realistic modeling as the diffusivities usually differ by many orders of magnitude in different phases. Simple free energy models are then used for testing the model while calibrated free energy models can be implemented for quantitative modeling.

DRUM: a new framework for metabolic modeling under non-balanced growth. Application to the carbon metabolism of unicellular microalgae.

Science.gov (United States)

Baroukh, Caroline; Muñoz-Tamayo, Rafael; Steyer, Jean-Philippe; Bernard, Olivier

2014-01-01

Metabolic modeling is a powerful tool to understand, predict and optimize bioprocesses, particularly when they imply intracellular molecules of interest. Unfortunately, the use of metabolic models for time varying metabolic fluxes is hampered by the lack of experimental data required to define and calibrate the kinetic reaction rates of the metabolic pathways. For this reason, metabolic models are often used under the balanced growth hypothesis. However, for some processes such as the photoautotrophic metabolism of microalgae, the balanced-growth assumption appears to be unreasonable because of the synchronization of their circadian cycle on the daily light. Yet, understanding microalgae metabolism is necessary to optimize the production yield of bioprocesses based on this microorganism, as for example production of third-generation biofuels. In this paper, we propose DRUM, a new dynamic metabolic modeling framework that handles the non-balanced growth condition and hence accumulation of intracellular metabolites. The first stage of the approach consists in splitting the metabolic network into sub-networks describing reactions which are spatially close, and which are assumed to satisfy balanced growth condition. The left metabolites interconnecting the sub-networks behave dynamically. Then, thanks to Elementary Flux Mode analysis, each sub-network is reduced to macroscopic reactions, for which simple kinetics are assumed. Finally, an Ordinary Differential Equation system is obtained to describe substrate consumption, biomass production, products excretion and accumulation of some internal metabolites. DRUM was applied to the accumulation of lipids and carbohydrates of the microalgae Tisochrysis lutea under day/night cycles. The resulting model describes accurately experimental data obtained in day/night conditions. It efficiently predicts the accumulation and consumption of lipids and carbohydrates.

DRUM: a new framework for metabolic modeling under non-balanced growth. Application to the carbon metabolism of unicellular microalgae.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Caroline Baroukh

Full Text Available Metabolic modeling is a powerful tool to understand, predict and optimize bioprocesses, particularly when they imply intracellular molecules of interest. Unfortunately, the use of metabolic models for time varying metabolic fluxes is hampered by the lack of experimental data required to define and calibrate the kinetic reaction rates of the metabolic pathways. For this reason, metabolic models are often used under the balanced growth hypothesis. However, for some processes such as the photoautotrophic metabolism of microalgae, the balanced-growth assumption appears to be unreasonable because of the synchronization of their circadian cycle on the daily light. Yet, understanding microalgae metabolism is necessary to optimize the production yield of bioprocesses based on this microorganism, as for example production of third-generation biofuels. In this paper, we propose DRUM, a new dynamic metabolic modeling framework that handles the non-balanced growth condition and hence accumulation of intracellular metabolites. The first stage of the approach consists in splitting the metabolic network into sub-networks describing reactions which are spatially close, and which are assumed to satisfy balanced growth condition. The left metabolites interconnecting the sub-networks behave dynamically. Then, thanks to Elementary Flux Mode analysis, each sub-network is reduced to macroscopic reactions, for which simple kinetics are assumed. Finally, an Ordinary Differential Equation system is obtained to describe substrate consumption, biomass production, products excretion and accumulation of some internal metabolites. DRUM was applied to the accumulation of lipids and carbohydrates of the microalgae Tisochrysis lutea under day/night cycles. The resulting model describes accurately experimental data obtained in day/night conditions. It efficiently predicts the accumulation and consumption of lipids and carbohydrates.

Estimating true evolutionary distances under the DCJ model.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Yu; Moret, Bernard M E

2008-07-01

Modern techniques can yield the ordering and strandedness of genes on each chromosome of a genome; such data already exists for hundreds of organisms. The evolutionary mechanisms through which the set of the genes of an organism is altered and reordered are of great interest to systematists, evolutionary biologists, comparative genomicists and biomedical researchers. Perhaps the most basic concept in this area is that of evolutionary distance between two genomes: under a given model of genomic evolution, how many events most likely took place to account for the difference between the two genomes? We present a method to estimate the true evolutionary distance between two genomes under the 'double-cut-and-join' (DCJ) model of genome rearrangement, a model under which a single multichromosomal operation accounts for all genomic rearrangement events: inversion, transposition, translocation, block interchange and chromosomal fusion and fission. Our method relies on a simple structural characterization of a genome pair and is both analytically and computationally tractable. We provide analytical results to describe the asymptotic behavior of genomes under the DCJ model, as well as experimental results on a wide variety of genome structures to exemplify the very high accuracy (and low variance) of our estimator. Our results provide a tool for accurate phylogenetic reconstruction from multichromosomal gene rearrangement data as well as a theoretical basis for refinements of the DCJ model to account for biological constraints. All of our software is available in source form under GPL at http://lcbb.epfl.ch.

The Trend Odds Model for Ordinal Data‡

Science.gov (United States)

Capuano, Ana W.; Dawson, Jeffrey D.

2013-01-01

Ordinal data appear in a wide variety of scientific fields. These data are often analyzed using ordinal logistic regression models that assume proportional odds. When this assumption is not met, it may be possible to capture the lack of proportionality using a constrained structural relationship between the odds and the cut-points of the ordinal values (Peterson and Harrell, 1990). We consider a trend odds version of this constrained model, where the odds parameter increases or decreases in a monotonic manner across the cut-points. We demonstrate algebraically and graphically how this model is related to latent logistic, normal, and exponential distributions. In particular, we find that scale changes in these potential latent distributions are consistent with the trend odds assumption, with the logistic and exponential distributions having odds that increase in a linear or nearly linear fashion. We show how to fit this model using SAS Proc Nlmixed, and perform simulations under proportional odds and trend odds processes. We find that the added complexity of the trend odds model gives improved power over the proportional odds model when there are moderate to severe departures from proportionality. A hypothetical dataset is used to illustrate the interpretation of the trend odds model, and we apply this model to a Swine Influenza example where the proportional odds assumption appears to be violated. PMID:23225520

The trend odds model for ordinal data.

Science.gov (United States)

Capuano, Ana W; Dawson, Jeffrey D

2013-06-15

Ordinal data appear in a wide variety of scientific fields. These data are often analyzed using ordinal logistic regression models that assume proportional odds. When this assumption is not met, it may be possible to capture the lack of proportionality using a constrained structural relationship between the odds and the cut-points of the ordinal values. We consider a trend odds version of this constrained model, wherein the odds parameter increases or decreases in a monotonic manner across the cut-points. We demonstrate algebraically and graphically how this model is related to latent logistic, normal, and exponential distributions. In particular, we find that scale changes in these potential latent distributions are consistent with the trend odds assumption, with the logistic and exponential distributions having odds that increase in a linear or nearly linear fashion. We show how to fit this model using SAS Proc NLMIXED and perform simulations under proportional odds and trend odds processes. We find that the added complexity of the trend odds model gives improved power over the proportional odds model when there are moderate to severe departures from proportionality. A hypothetical data set is used to illustrate the interpretation of the trend odds model, and we apply this model to a swine influenza example wherein the proportional odds assumption appears to be violated. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A test for the parameters of multiple linear regression models ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

A test for the parameters of multiple linear regression models is developed for conducting tests simultaneously on all the parameters of multiple linear regression models. The test is robust relative to the assumptions of homogeneity of variances and absence of serial correlation of the classical F-test. Under certain null and ...

Incorporation of constructivist assumptions into problem-based instruction: a literature review.

Science.gov (United States)

Kantar, Lina

2014-05-01

The purpose of this literature review was to explore the use of distinct assumptions of constructivism when studying the impact of problem-based learning (PBL) on learners in undergraduate nursing programs. Content analysis research technique. The literature review included information retrieved from sources selected via electronic databases, such as EBSCOhost, ProQuest, Sage Publications, SLACK Incorporation, Springhouse Corporation, and Digital Dissertations. The literature review was conducted utilizing key terms and phrases associated with problem-based learning in undergraduate nursing education. Out of the 100 reviewed abstracts, only 15 studies met the inclusion criteria for the review. Four constructivist assumptions based the review process allowing for analysis and evaluation of the findings, followed by identification of issues and recommendations for the discipline and its research practice in the field of PBL. This literature review provided evidence that the nursing discipline is employing PBL in its programs, yet with limited data supporting conceptions of the constructivist perspective underlying this pedagogical approach. Three major issues were assessed and formed the basis for subsequent recommendations: (a) limited use of a theoretical framework and absence of constructivism in most of the studies, (b) incompatibility between research measures and research outcomes, and (c) brief exposure to PBL during which the change was measured. Educators have made the right choice in employing PBL as a pedagogical practice, yet the need to base implementation on constructivism is mandatory if the aim is a better preparation of graduates for practice. Undeniably there is limited convincing evidence regarding integration of constructivism in nursing education. Research that assesses the impact of PBL on learners' problem-solving and communication skills, self-direction, and motivation is paramount. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A model for phase stability under irradiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abromeit, C.

The combination of two theoretical models leads to modified criteria of stability of precipitates under heavy particle irradiation. The size of existing or under irradiation newly formed precipitates is limited by a stable radius. Precipitate surface energy effects are included in a consistent manner

Model documentation, Renewable Fuels Module of the National Energy Modeling System

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1998-01-01

This report documents the objectives, analytical approach, and design of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Renewable Fuels Module (RFM) as it relates to the production of the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98) forecasts. The report catalogues and describes modeling assumptions, computational methodologies, data inputs, and parameter estimation techniques. A number of offline analyses used in lieu of RFM modeling components are also described. For AEO98, the RFM was modified in three principal ways, introducing capital cost elasticities of supply for new renewable energy technologies, modifying biomass supply curves, and revising assumptions for use of landfill gas from municipal solid waste (MSW). In addition, the RFM was modified in general to accommodate projections beyond 2015 through 2020. Two supply elasticities were introduced, the first reflecting short-term (annual) cost increases from manufacturing, siting, and installation bottlenecks incurred under conditions of rapid growth, and the second reflecting longer term natural resource, transmission and distribution upgrade, and market limitations increasing costs as more and more of the overall resource is used. Biomass supply curves were also modified, basing forest products supplies on production rather than on inventory, and expanding energy crop estimates to include states west of the Mississippi River using information developed by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Finally, for MSW, several assumptions for the use of landfill gas were revised and extended.

A Spectral Geometrical Model for Compton Scatter Tomography Based on the SSS Approximation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kazantsev, Ivan G.; Olsen, Ulrik Lund; Poulsen, Henning Friis

2016-01-01

The forward model of single scatter in the Positron Emission Tomography for a detector system possessing an excellent spectral resolution under idealized geometrical assumptions is investigated. This model has the form of integral equations describing a flux of photons emanating from the same ann...

Shattering Man’s Fundamental Assumptions in Don DeLillo’s Falling Man

OpenAIRE

Hazim Adnan Hashim; Rosli Bin Talif; Lina Hameed Ali

2016-01-01

The present study addresses effects of traumatic events such as the September 11 attacks on victims’ fundamental assumptions. These beliefs or assumptions provide individuals with expectations about the world and their sense of self-worth. Thus, they ground people’s sense of security, stability, and orientation. The September 11 terrorist attacks in the U.S.A. were very tragic for Americans because this fundamentally changed their understandings about many aspects in life. The attacks led man...

Physical models for the description of an electrodynamically accelerated plasma sheath

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zambreanu, V.

1977-01-01

An analysis of the models proposed for the description of the plasma sheath dynamics in a coaxial system (of the same type as that operating at the Bucharest Institute of Physics) is presented. A particular attention is paid to the physical structure of the accelerated plasma. It has been shown that a self-consistent model could be derived from a phenomenological description of the sheath structure. The physical models presented so far in the literature have been classified into three groups: the hydrodynamic models, the plasma sheet models and the shock wave models. Each of these models is briefly described. The simplifying assumptions used in the construction of these models have been pointed out. The final conclusion has been that, under these assumptions, none of these models taken separately could completely and correctly describe the dynamical state of the plasma sheath. (author)

Commentary: Considering Assumptions in Associations Between Music Preferences and Empathy-Related Responding

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Susan A O'Neill

2015-09-01

Full Text Available This commentary considers some of the assumptions underpinning the study by Clark and Giacomantonio (2015. Their exploratory study examined relationships between young people's music preferences and their cognitive and affective empathy-related responses. First, the prescriptive assumption that music preferences can be measured according to how often an individual listens to a particular music genre is considered within axiology or value theory as a multidimensional construct (general, specific, and functional values. This is followed by a consideration of the causal assumption that if we increase young people's empathy through exposure to prosocial song lyrics this will increase their prosocial behavior. It is suggested that the predictive power of musical preferences on empathy-related responding might benefit from a consideration of the larger pattern of psychological and subjective wellbeing within the context of developmental regulation across ontogeny that involves mutually influential individual—context relations.

New Assumptions to Guide SETI Research

Science.gov (United States)

Colombano, S. P.

2018-01-01

The recent Kepler discoveries of Earth-like planets offer the opportunity to focus our attention on detecting signs of life and technology in specific planetary systems, but I feel we need to become more flexible in our assumptions. The reason is that, while it is still reasonable and conservative to assume that life is most likely to have originated in conditions similar to ours, the vast time differences in potential evolutions render the likelihood of "matching" technologies very slim. In light of these challenges I propose a more "aggressive"� approach to future SETI exploration in directions that until now have received little consideration.

Inviscid Wall-Modeled Large Eddy Simulations for Improved Efficiency

Science.gov (United States)

Aikens, Kurt; Craft, Kyle; Redman, Andrew

2015-11-01

The accuracy of an inviscid flow assumption for wall-modeled large eddy simulations (LES) is examined because of its ability to reduce simulation costs. This assumption is not generally applicable for wall-bounded flows due to the high velocity gradients found near walls. In wall-modeled LES, however, neither the viscous near-wall region or the viscous length scales in the outer flow are resolved. Therefore, the viscous terms in the Navier-Stokes equations have little impact on the resolved flowfield. Zero pressure gradient flat plate boundary layer results are presented for both viscous and inviscid simulations using a wall model developed previously. The results are very similar and compare favorably to those from another wall model methodology and experimental data. Furthermore, the inviscid assumption reduces simulation costs by about 25% and 39% for supersonic and subsonic flows, respectively. Future research directions are discussed as are preliminary efforts to extend the wall model to include the effects of unresolved wall roughness. This work used the Extreme Science and Engineering Discovery Environment (XSEDE), which is supported by National Science Foundation grant number ACI-1053575. Computational resources on TACC Stampede were provided under XSEDE allocation ENG150001.

Sufficiency and Duality for Multiobjective Programming under New Invexity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yingchun Zheng

2016-01-01

Full Text Available A class of multiobjective programming problems including inequality constraints is considered. To this aim, some new concepts of generalized F,P-type I and F,P-type II functions are introduced in the differentiable assumption by using the sublinear function F. These new functions are used to establish and prove the sufficient optimality conditions for weak efficiency or efficiency of the multiobjective programming problems. Moreover, two kinds of dual models are formulated. The weak dual, strong dual, and strict converse dual results are obtained under the aforesaid functions.

Analysis of heat transfer under high heat flux nucleate boiling conditions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Liu, Y.; Dinh, N. [3145 Burlington Laboratories, Raleigh, NC (United States)

2016-07-15

Analysis was performed for a heater infrared thermometric imaging temperature data obtained from high heat flux pool boiling and liquid film boiling experiments BETA. With the OpenFOAM solver, heat flux distribution towards the coolant was obtained by solving transient heat conduction of heater substrate given the heater surface temperature data as boundary condition. The so-obtained heat flux data was used to validate them against the state-of-art wall boiling model developed by D. R. Shaver (2015) with the assumption of micro-layer hydrodynamics. Good agreement was found between the model prediction and data for conditions away from the critical heat flux (CHF). However, the data indicate a different heat transfer pattern under CHF, which is not captured by the current model. Experimental data strengthen the notion of burnout caused by the irreversible hot spot due to failure of rewetting. The observation forms a basis for a detailed modeling of micro-layer hydrodynamics under high heat flux.

Analysis of heat transfer under high heat flux nucleate boiling conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, Y.; Dinh, N.

2016-01-01

Analysis was performed for a heater infrared thermometric imaging temperature data obtained from high heat flux pool boiling and liquid film boiling experiments BETA. With the OpenFOAM solver, heat flux distribution towards the coolant was obtained by solving transient heat conduction of heater substrate given the heater surface temperature data as boundary condition. The so-obtained heat flux data was used to validate them against the state-of-art wall boiling model developed by D. R. Shaver (2015) with the assumption of micro-layer hydrodynamics. Good agreement was found between the model prediction and data for conditions away from the critical heat flux (CHF). However, the data indicate a different heat transfer pattern under CHF, which is not captured by the current model. Experimental data strengthen the notion of burnout caused by the irreversible hot spot due to failure of rewetting. The observation forms a basis for a detailed modeling of micro-layer hydrodynamics under high heat flux.

Gauge theories under incorporation of a generalized uncertainty principle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kober, Martin

2010-01-01

There is considered an extension of gauge theories according to the assumption of a generalized uncertainty principle which implies a minimal length scale. A modification of the usual uncertainty principle implies an extended shape of matter field equations like the Dirac equation. If there is postulated invariance of such a generalized field equation under local gauge transformations, the usual covariant derivative containing the gauge potential has to be replaced by a generalized covariant derivative. This leads to a generalized interaction between the matter field and the gauge field as well as to an additional self-interaction of the gauge field. Since the existence of a minimal length scale seems to be a necessary assumption of any consistent quantum theory of gravity, the gauge principle is a constitutive ingredient of the standard model, and even gravity can be described as gauge theory of local translations or Lorentz transformations, the presented extension of gauge theories appears as a very important consideration.

Exploring five common assumptions on Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Batstra, Laura; Nieweg, Edo H.; Hadders-Algra, Mijna

The number of children diagnosed with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and treated with medication is steadily increasing. The aim of this paper was to critically discuss five debatable assumptions on ADHD that may explain these trends to some extent. These are that ADHD (i) causes

Fission Product Transport Models Adopted in REFPAC Code for LOCA Conditions in PWR and WWER NPPS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Strupczewski, A.

2003-01-01

The report presents assumptions and physical models used for calculations of fission product releases from nuclear reactors, their behavior inside the containment and leakages to the environment after large break loss of coolant accident LB LOCA. They are the basis of code REFPAC (RElease of Fission Products under Accident Conditions), designed primarily to represent significant physical processes occurring after LB LOCA. The code describes these processes using three different models. Model 1 corresponds to established US and Russian practice, Model 2 includes all conservative assumptions that are in agreement with the actual state-of-the-art, and Model 3 incorporates formulae and parameter values actually used in EU practice. (author)

Modelling Tradescantia fluminensis to assess long term survival

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alex James

2015-06-01

Full Text Available We present a simple Poisson process model for the growth of Tradescantia fluminensis, an invasive plant species that inhibits the regeneration of native forest remnants in New Zealand. The model was parameterised with data derived from field experiments in New Zealand and then verified with independent data. The model gave good predictions which showed that its underlying assumptions are sound. However, this simple model had less predictive power for outputs based on variance suggesting that some assumptions were lacking. Therefore, we extended the model to include higher variability between plants thereby improving its predictions. This high variance model suggests that control measures that promote node death at the base of the plant or restrict the main stem growth rate will be more effective than those that reduce the number of branching events. The extended model forms a good basis for assessing the efficacy of various forms of control of this weed, including the recently-released leaf-feeding tradescantia leaf beetle (Neolema ogloblini.

Large-scale analyses of synonymous substitution rates can be sensitive to assumptions about the process of mutation.

Science.gov (United States)

Aris-Brosou, Stéphane; Bielawski, Joseph P

2006-08-15

A popular approach to examine the roles of mutation and selection in the evolution of genomes has been to consider the relationship between codon bias and synonymous rates of molecular evolution. A significant relationship between these two quantities is taken to indicate the action of weak selection on substitutions among synonymous codons. The neutral theory predicts that the rate of evolution is inversely related to the level of functional constraint. Therefore, selection against the use of non-preferred codons among those coding for the same amino acid should result in lower rates of synonymous substitution as compared with sites not subject to such selection pressures. However, reliably measuring the extent of such a relationship is problematic, as estimates of synonymous rates are sensitive to our assumptions about the process of molecular evolution. Previous studies showed the importance of accounting for unequal codon frequencies, in particular when synonymous codon usage is highly biased. Yet, unequal codon frequencies can be modeled in different ways, making different assumptions about the mutation process. Here we conduct a simulation study to evaluate two different ways of modeling uneven codon frequencies and show that both model parameterizations can have a dramatic impact on rate estimates and affect biological conclusions about genome evolution. We reanalyze three large data sets to demonstrate the relevance of our results to empirical data analysis.

Crack modelling for the assessment of stiffness loss of reinforced concrete structures under mechanical loading - determination of the permeability of the micro-cracked body

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bongue Boma, M.

2007-12-01

We propose a model describing the evolution of mechanical and permeability properties of concrete under slow mechanical loading. Calling upon the theory of continua with microstructure, the kinematic of the domain is enriched by a variable characterising size and orientation of the crack field. We call upon configurational forces to deal with crack propagation and we determine the balance equations governing both strain and propagation. The geometry of the microstructure is representative of the porous media: the permeability is obtained from the resolution of Stokes equations in an elementary volume. An example has been treated: we considered simple assumptions (uniform crack field, application of linear fracture mechanics...) and we determined the behaviour of a body under tensile loading. Strain, crack propagation and stiffness loss are completely assessed. Finally the evolution of permeability is plotted: once activated, crack propagation is the main cause of water tightness loss. (author)

Implicit Assumptions in Special Education Policy: Promoting Full Inclusion for Students with Learning Disabilities

Science.gov (United States)

Kirby, Moira

2017-01-01

Introduction: Everyday millions of students in the United States receive special education services. Special education is an institution shaped by societal norms. Inherent in these norms are implicit assumptions regarding disability and the nature of special education services. The two dominant implicit assumptions evident in the American…

Uniform background assumption produces misleading lung EIT images.

Science.gov (United States)

Grychtol, Bartłomiej; Adler, Andy

2013-06-01

Electrical impedance tomography (EIT) estimates an image of conductivity change within a body from stimulation and measurement at body surface electrodes. There is significant interest in EIT for imaging the thorax, as a monitoring tool for lung ventilation. To be useful in this application, we require an understanding of if and when EIT images can produce inaccurate images. In this paper, we study the consequences of the homogeneous background assumption, frequently made in linear image reconstruction, which introduces a mismatch between the reference measurement and the linearization point. We show in simulation and experimental data that the resulting images may contain large and clinically significant errors. A 3D finite element model of thorax conductivity is used to simulate EIT measurements for different heart and lung conductivity, size and position, as well as different amounts of gravitational collapse and ventilation-associated conductivity change. Three common linear EIT reconstruction algorithms are studied. We find that the asymmetric position of the heart can cause EIT images of ventilation to show up to 60% undue bias towards the left lung and that the effect is particularly strong for a ventilation distribution typical of mechanically ventilated patients. The conductivity gradient associated with gravitational lung collapse causes conductivity changes in non-dependent lung to be overestimated by up to 100% with respect to the dependent lung. Eliminating the mismatch by using a realistic conductivity distribution in the forward model of the reconstruction algorithm strongly reduces these undesirable effects. We conclude that subject-specific anatomically accurate forward models should be used in lung EIT and extra care is required when analysing EIT images of subjects whose background conductivity distribution in the lungs is known to be heterogeneous or exhibiting large changes.

Uniform background assumption produces misleading lung EIT images

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grychtol, Bartłomiej; Adler, Andy

2013-01-01

Electrical impedance tomography (EIT) estimates an image of conductivity change within a body from stimulation and measurement at body surface electrodes. There is significant interest in EIT for imaging the thorax, as a monitoring tool for lung ventilation. To be useful in this application, we require an understanding of if and when EIT images can produce inaccurate images. In this paper, we study the consequences of the homogeneous background assumption, frequently made in linear image reconstruction, which introduces a mismatch between the reference measurement and the linearization point. We show in simulation and experimental data that the resulting images may contain large and clinically significant errors. A 3D finite element model of thorax conductivity is used to simulate EIT measurements for different heart and lung conductivity, size and position, as well as different amounts of gravitational collapse and ventilation-associated conductivity change. Three common linear EIT reconstruction algorithms are studied. We find that the asymmetric position of the heart can cause EIT images of ventilation to show up to 60% undue bias towards the left lung and that the effect is particularly strong for a ventilation distribution typical of mechanically ventilated patients. The conductivity gradient associated with gravitational lung collapse causes conductivity changes in non-dependent lung to be overestimated by up to 100% with respect to the dependent lung. Eliminating the mismatch by using a realistic conductivity distribution in the forward model of the reconstruction algorithm strongly reduces these undesirable effects. We conclude that subject-specific anatomically accurate forward models should be used in lung EIT and extra care is required when analysing EIT images of subjects whose background conductivity distribution in the lungs is known to be heterogeneous or exhibiting large changes. (paper)

Semi-supervised learning via regularized boosting working on multiple semi-supervised assumptions.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Ke; Wang, Shihai

2011-01-01

Semi-supervised learning concerns the problem of learning in the presence of labeled and unlabeled data. Several boosting algorithms have been extended to semi-supervised learning with various strategies. To our knowledge, however, none of them takes all three semi-supervised assumptions, i.e., smoothness, cluster, and manifold assumptions, together into account during boosting learning. In this paper, we propose a novel cost functional consisting of the margin cost on labeled data and the regularization penalty on unlabeled data based on three fundamental semi-supervised assumptions. Thus, minimizing our proposed cost functional with a greedy yet stagewise functional optimization procedure leads to a generic boosting framework for semi-supervised learning. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our algorithm yields favorite results for benchmark and real-world classification tasks in comparison to state-of-the-art semi-supervised learning algorithms, including newly developed boosting algorithms. Finally, we discuss relevant issues and relate our algorithm to the previous work.

Thorough specification of the neurophysiologic processes underlying behavior and of their manifestation in EEG - demonstration with the go/no-go task.

Science.gov (United States)

Shahaf, Goded; Pratt, Hillel

2013-01-01

In this work we demonstrate the principles of a systematic modeling approach of the neurophysiologic processes underlying a behavioral function. The modeling is based upon a flexible simulation tool, which enables parametric specification of the underlying neurophysiologic characteristics. While the impact of selecting specific parameters is of interest, in this work we focus on the insights, which emerge from rather accepted assumptions regarding neuronal representation. We show that harnessing of even such simple assumptions enables the derivation of significant insights regarding the nature of the neurophysiologic processes underlying behavior. We demonstrate our approach in some detail by modeling the behavioral go/no-go task. We further demonstrate the practical significance of this simplified modeling approach in interpreting experimental data - the manifestation of these processes in the EEG and ERP literature of normal and abnormal (ADHD) function, as well as with comprehensive relevant ERP data analysis. In-fact we show that from the model-based spatiotemporal segregation of the processes, it is possible to derive simple and yet effective and theory-based EEG markers differentiating normal and ADHD subjects. We summarize by claiming that the neurophysiologic processes modeled for the go/no-go task are part of a limited set of neurophysiologic processes which underlie, in a variety of combinations, any behavioral function with measurable operational definition. Such neurophysiologic processes could be sampled directly from EEG on the basis of model-based spatiotemporal segregation.

Does Artificial Neural Network Support Connectivism's Assumptions?

Science.gov (United States)

AlDahdouh, Alaa A.

2017-01-01

Connectivism was presented as a learning theory for the digital age and connectivists claim that recent developments in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and, more specifically, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) support their assumptions of knowledge connectivity. Yet, very little has been done to investigate this brave allegation. Does the advancement…

Anti-Atheist Bias in the United States: Testing Two Critical Assumptions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lawton K Swan

2012-02-01

Full Text Available Decades of opinion polling and empirical investigations have clearly demonstrated a pervasive anti-atheist prejudice in the United States. However, much of this scholarship relies on two critical and largely unaddressed assumptions: (a that when people report negative attitudes toward atheists, they do so because they are reacting specifically to their lack of belief in God; and (b that survey questions asking about attitudes toward atheists as a group yield reliable information about biases against individual atheist targets. To test these assumptions, an online survey asked a probability-based random sample of American adults (N = 618 to evaluate a fellow research participant (“Jordan”. Jordan garnered significantly more negative evaluations when identified as an atheist than when described as religious or when religiosity was not mentioned. This effect did not differ as a function of labeling (“atheist” versus “no belief in God”, or the amount of individuating information provided about Jordan. These data suggest that both assumptions are tenable: nonbelief—rather than extraneous connotations of the word “atheist”—seems to underlie the effect, and participants exhibited a marked bias even when confronted with an otherwise attractive individual.

Stream of consciousness: Quantum and biochemical assumptions regarding psychopathology.

Science.gov (United States)

Tonello, Lucio; Cocchi, Massimo; Gabrielli, Fabio; Tuszynski, Jack A

2017-04-01

The accepted paradigms of mainstream neuropsychiatry appear to be incompletely adequate and in various cases offer equivocal analyses. However, a growing number of new approaches are being proposed that suggest the emergence of paradigm shifts in this area. In particular, quantum theories of mind, brain and consciousness seem to offer a profound change to the current approaches. Unfortunately these quantum paradigms harbor at least two serious problems. First, they are simply models, theories, and assumptions, with no convincing experiments supporting their claims. Second, they deviate from contemporary mainstream views of psychiatric illness and do so in revolutionary ways. We suggest a possible way to integrate experimental neuroscience with quantum models in order to address outstanding issues in psychopathology. A key role is played by the phenomenon called the "stream of consciousness", which can be linked to the so-called "Gamma Synchrony" (GS), which is clearly demonstrated by EEG data. In our novel proposal, a unipolar depressed patient could be seen as a subject with an altered stream of consciousness. In particular, some clues suggest that depression is linked to an "increased power" stream of consciousness. It is additionally suggested that such an approach to depression might be extended to psychopathology in general with potential benefits to diagnostics and therapeutics in neuropsychiatry. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sensitivity of the OMI ozone profile retrieval (OMO3PR) to a priori assumptions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mielonen, T.; De Haan, J.F.; Veefkind, J.P.

2014-01-01

We have assessed the sensitivity of the operational OMI ozone profile retrieval (OMO3PR) algorithm to a number of a priori assumptions. We studied the effect of stray light correction, surface albedo assumptions and a priori ozone profiles on the retrieved ozone profile. Then, we studied how to

Generative models versus underlying symmetries to explain biological pattern.

Science.gov (United States)

Frank, S A

2014-06-01

Mathematical models play an increasingly important role in the interpretation of biological experiments. Studies often present a model that generates the observations, connecting hypothesized process to an observed pattern. Such generative models confirm the plausibility of an explanation and make testable hypotheses for further experiments. However, studies rarely consider the broad family of alternative models that match the same observed pattern. The symmetries that define the broad class of matching models are in fact the only aspects of information truly revealed by observed pattern. Commonly observed patterns derive from simple underlying symmetries. This article illustrates the problem by showing the symmetry associated with the observed rate of increase in fitness in a constant environment. That underlying symmetry reveals how each particular generative model defines a single example within the broad class of matching models. Further progress on the relation between pattern and process requires deeper consideration of the underlying symmetries. © 2014 The Author. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2014 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

THE COMPLEX OF ASSUMPTION CATHEDRAL OF THE ASTRAKHAN KREMLIN

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Savenkova Aleksandra Igorevna

2016-08-01

Full Text Available This article is devoted to an architectural and historical analysis of the constructions forming a complex of Assumption Cathedral of the Astrakhan Kremlin, which earlier hasn’t been considered as a subject of special research. Basing on the archival sources, photographic materials, publications and on-site investigations of monuments, the creation history of the complete architectural complex sustained in one style of the Muscovite baroque, unique in its composite construction, is considered. Its interpretation in the all-Russian architectural context is offered. Typological features of single constructions come to light. The typology of the Prechistinsky bell tower has an untypical architectural solution - “hexagonal structure on octagonal and quadrangular structures”. The way of connecting the building of the Cathedral and the chambers by the passage was characteristic of monastic constructions and was exclusively seldom in kremlins, farmsteads and ensembles of city cathedrals. The composite scheme of the Assumption Cathedral includes the Lobnoye Mesto (“the Place of Execution” located on an axis from the West, it is connected with the main building by a quarter-turn with landing. The only prototype of the structure is a Lobnoye Mesto on the Red Square in Moscow. In the article the version about the emergence of the Place of Execution on the basis of earlier existing construction - a tower “the Peal” which is repeatedly mentioned in written sources in connection with S. Razin’s revolt is considered. The metropolitan Sampson, trying to keep the value of the Astrakhan metropolitanate, builds the Assumption Cathedral and the Place of Execution directly appealing to a capital prototype to emphasize the continuity and close connection with Moscow.

The European Water Framework Directive: How Ecological Assumptions Frame Technical and Social Change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Patrick Steyaert

2007-06-01

Full Text Available The European Water Framework Directive (WFD is built upon significant cognitive developments in the field of ecological science but also encourages active involvement of all interested parties in its implementation. The coexistence in the same policy text of both substantive and procedural approaches to policy development stimulated this research as did our concerns about the implications of substantive ecological visions within the WFD policy for promoting, or not, social learning processes through participatory designs. We have used a qualitative analysis of the WFD text which shows the ecological dimension of the WFD dedicates its quasi-exclusive attention to a particular current of thought in ecosystems science focusing on ecosystems status and stability and considering human activities as disturbance factors. This particular worldview is juxtaposed within the WFD with a more utilitarian one that gives rise to many policy exemptions without changing the general underlying ecological model. We discuss these policy statements in the light of the tension between substantive and procedural policy developments. We argue that the dominant substantive approach of the WFD, comprising particular ecological assumptions built upon "compositionalism," seems to be contradictory with its espoused intention of involving the public. We discuss that current of thought in regard to more functionalist thinking and adaptive management, which offers greater opportunities for social learning, i.e., place a set of interdependent stakeholders in an intersubjective position in which they operate a "social construction" of water problems through the co-production of knowledge.

The error and covariance structures of the mean approach model of pooled cross-section and time series data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nuamah, N.N.N.N.

1991-01-01

This paper postulates the assumptions underlying the Mean Approach model and recasts the re-expressions of the normal equations of this model in partitioned matrices of covariances. These covariance structures have been analysed. (author). 16 refs

Nonequilibrium pressurizer model; Model za neravnotezne uslove u sudu za odrzavanje pritiska

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stevanovic, V; Studovic, M [masinski fakultet, Beograd (Yugoslavia)

1984-07-01

The paper represents a nonequilibrium pressurizer model developed at the Faculty of Mechanical engineering as a sub model of complete NSSS model for predicting behaviour of corresponding components under transient conditions. Apart from other approaches, developed model was started with assumption that governing processes in pressurizer behaviour are interfaces heat and mass transfer processes. Such procedure has difficulties with information about values of interfaces and thermodynamic potential for mass and energy transfer across interfaces, during thermodynamic nonequilibrium state of vapour and liquid. To overcome these difficulties it was introduced the mass and energy parameters which successfully solve this problem. The model was verified with several analytical and experimental results. (author)

A risk hedging strategy under the nonparallel-shift yield curve

Science.gov (United States)

Gong, Pu; He, Xubiao

2005-08-01

Under the assumption of the movement of rigid, a nonparallel-shift model in the term structure of interest rates is developed by introducing Fisher & Weil duration which is a well-known concept in the area of interest risk management. This paper has studied the hedge and replication for portfolio immunization to minimize the risk exposure. Throughout the experiment of numerical simulation, the risk exposures of the portfolio under the different risk hedging strategies are quantitatively evaluated by the method of value at risk (VaR) order statistics (OS) estimation. The results show that the risk hedging strategy proposed in this paper is very effective for the interest risk management of the default-free bond.

Why would we use the Sediment Isotope Tomography (SIT) model to establish a 210Pb-based chronology in recent-sediment cores?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abril Hernández, José-María

2015-01-01

After half a century, the use of unsupported 210 Pb ( 210 Pb exc ) is still far off from being a well established dating tool for recent sediments with widespread applicability. Recent results from the statistical analysis of time series of fluxes, mass sediment accumulation rates (SAR), and initial activities, derived from varved sediments, place serious constraints to the assumption of constant fluxes, which is widely used in dating models. The Sediment Isotope Tomography (SIT) model, under the assumption of non post-depositional redistribution, is used for dating recent sediments in scenarios in that fluxes and SAR are uncorrelated and both vary with time. By using a simple graphical analysis, this paper shows that under the above assumptions, any given 210 Pb exc profile, even with the restriction of a discrete set of reference points, is compatible with an infinite number of chronological lines, and thus generating an infinite number of mathematically exact solutions for histories of initial activity concentrations, SAR and fluxes onto the SWI, with these two last ranging from zero up to infinity. Particularly, SIT results, without additional assumptions, cannot contain any statistically significant difference with respect to the exact solutions consisting in intervals of constant SAR or constant fluxes (both being consistent with the reference points). Therefore, there is not any benefit in its use as a dating tool without the explicit introduction of additional restrictive assumptions about fluxes, SAR and/or their interrelationship. - Highlights: • The 210 Pb-based method for dating recent sediments is of a widespread use. • Recent results limit the use of the simplifying assumption of constant fluxes. • SIT model claims to solve scenarios where fluxes and SAR independently vary with time. • The paper shows how SIT model lacks of sound physical basis. • A dating tool is only possible by introducing additional restrictive assumptions

A financial planning model for estimating hospital debt capacity.

Science.gov (United States)

Hopkins, D S; Heath, D; Levin, P J

1982-01-01

A computer-based financial planning model was formulated to measure the impact of a major capital improvement project on the fiscal health of Stanford University Hospital. The model had to be responsive to many variables and easy to use, so as to allow for the testing of numerous alternatives. Special efforts were made to identify the key variables that needed to be presented in the model and to include all known links between capital investment, debt, and hospital operating expenses. Growth in the number of patient days of care was singled out as a major source of uncertainty that would have profound effects on the hospital's finances. Therefore this variable was subjected to special scrutiny in terms of efforts to gauge expected demographic trends and market forces. In addition, alternative base runs of the model were made under three distinct patient-demand assumptions. Use of the model enabled planners at the Stanford University Hospital (a) to determine that a proposed modernization plan was financially feasible under a reasonable (that is, not unduly optimistic) set of assumptions and (b) to examine the major sources of risk. Other than patient demand, these sources were found to be gross revenues per patient, operating costs, and future limitations on government reimbursement programs. When the likely financial consequences of these risks were estimated, both separately and in combination, it was determined that even if two or more assumptions took a somewhat more negative turn than was expected, the hospital would be able to offset adverse consequences by a relatively minor reduction in operating costs. PMID:7111658

Project selection problem under uncertainty: An application of utility theory and chance constrained programming to a real case

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Reza Hosnavi Atashgah

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Selecting from a pool of interdependent projects under certainty, when faced with resource constraints, has been studied well in the literature of project selection problem. After briefly reviewing and discussing popular modeling approaches for dealing with uncertainty, this paper proposes an approach based on chance constrained programming and utility theory for a certain range of problems and under some practical assumptions. Expected Utility Programming, as the proposed modeling approach, will be compared with other well-known methods and its meaningfulness and usefulness will be illustrated via two numerical examples and one real case.

Thresholding projection estimators in functional linear models

OpenAIRE

Cardot, Hervé; Johannes, Jan

2010-01-01

We consider the problem of estimating the regression function in functional linear regression models by proposing a new type of projection estimators which combine dimension reduction and thresholding. The introduction of a threshold rule allows to get consistency under broad assumptions as well as minimax rates of convergence under additional regularity hypotheses. We also consider the particular case of Sobolev spaces generated by the trigonometric basis which permits to get easily mean squ...

A simplified model of choice behavior under uncertainty

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ching-Hung Lin

2016-08-01

Full Text Available The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT has been standardized as a clinical assessment tool (Bechara, 2007. Nonetheless, numerous research groups have attempted to modify IGT models to optimize parameters for predicting the choice behavior of normal controls and patients. A decade ago, most researchers considered the expected utility (EU model (Busemeyer and Stout, 2002 to be the optimal model for predicting choice behavior under uncertainty. However, in recent years, studies have demonstrated the prospect utility (PU models (Ahn et al., 2008 to be more effective than the EU models in the IGT. Nevertheless, after some preliminary tests, we propose that Ahn et al. (2008 PU model is not optimal due to some incompatible results between our behavioral and modeling data. This study aims to modify Ahn et al. (2008 PU model to a simplified model and collected 145 subjects’ IGT performance as the benchmark data for comparison. In our simplified PU model, the best goodness-of-fit was found mostly while α approaching zero. More specifically, we retested the key parameters α, λ , and A in the PU model. Notably, the power of influence of the parameters α, λ, and A has a hierarchical order in terms of manipulating the goodness-of-fit in the PU model. Additionally, we found that the parameters λ and A may be ineffective when the parameter α is close to zero in the PU model. The present simplified model demonstrated that decision makers mostly adopted the strategy of gain-stay-loss-shift rather than foreseeing the long-term outcome. However, there still have other behavioral variables that are not well revealed under these dynamic uncertainty situations. Therefore, the optimal behavioral models may not have been found. In short, the best model for predicting choice behavior under dynamic-uncertainty situations should be further evaluated.

Expected Shannon Entropy and Shannon Differentiation between Subpopulations for Neutral Genes under the Finite Island Model.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anne Chao

Full Text Available Shannon entropy H and related measures are increasingly used in molecular ecology and population genetics because (1 unlike measures based on heterozygosity or allele number, these measures weigh alleles in proportion to their population fraction, thus capturing a previously-ignored aspect of allele frequency distributions that may be important in many applications; (2 these measures connect directly to the rich predictive mathematics of information theory; (3 Shannon entropy is completely additive and has an explicitly hierarchical nature; and (4 Shannon entropy-based differentiation measures obey strong monotonicity properties that heterozygosity-based measures lack. We derive simple new expressions for the expected values of the Shannon entropy of the equilibrium allele distribution at a neutral locus in a single isolated population under two models of mutation: the infinite allele model and the stepwise mutation model. Surprisingly, this complex stochastic system for each model has an entropy expressable as a simple combination of well-known mathematical functions. Moreover, entropy- and heterozygosity-based measures for each model are linked by simple relationships that are shown by simulations to be approximately valid even far from equilibrium. We also identify a bridge between the two models of mutation. We apply our approach to subdivided populations which follow the finite island model, obtaining the Shannon entropy of the equilibrium allele distributions of the subpopulations and of the total population. We also derive the expected mutual information and normalized mutual information ("Shannon differentiation" between subpopulations at equilibrium, and identify the model parameters that determine them. We apply our measures to data from the common starling (Sturnus vulgaris in Australia. Our measures provide a test for neutrality that is robust to violations of equilibrium assumptions, as verified on real world data from starlings.

Expected Shannon Entropy and Shannon Differentiation between Subpopulations for Neutral Genes under the Finite Island Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Chao, Anne; Jost, Lou; Hsieh, T C; Ma, K H; Sherwin, William B; Rollins, Lee Ann

2015-01-01

Shannon entropy H and related measures are increasingly used in molecular ecology and population genetics because (1) unlike measures based on heterozygosity or allele number, these measures weigh alleles in proportion to their population fraction, thus capturing a previously-ignored aspect of allele frequency distributions that may be important in many applications; (2) these measures connect directly to the rich predictive mathematics of information theory; (3) Shannon entropy is completely additive and has an explicitly hierarchical nature; and (4) Shannon entropy-based differentiation measures obey strong monotonicity properties that heterozygosity-based measures lack. We derive simple new expressions for the expected values of the Shannon entropy of the equilibrium allele distribution at a neutral locus in a single isolated population under two models of mutation: the infinite allele model and the stepwise mutation model. Surprisingly, this complex stochastic system for each model has an entropy expressable as a simple combination of well-known mathematical functions. Moreover, entropy- and heterozygosity-based measures for each model are linked by simple relationships that are shown by simulations to be approximately valid even far from equilibrium. We also identify a bridge between the two models of mutation. We apply our approach to subdivided populations which follow the finite island model, obtaining the Shannon entropy of the equilibrium allele distributions of the subpopulations and of the total population. We also derive the expected mutual information and normalized mutual information ("Shannon differentiation") between subpopulations at equilibrium, and identify the model parameters that determine them. We apply our measures to data from the common starling (Sturnus vulgaris) in Australia. Our measures provide a test for neutrality that is robust to violations of equilibrium assumptions, as verified on real world data from starlings.

Damage Model of Reinforced Concrete Members under Cyclic Loading

Science.gov (United States)

Wei, Bo Chen; Zhang, Jing Shu; Zhang, Yin Hua; Zhou, Jia Lai

2018-06-01

Based on the Kumar damage model, a new damage model for reinforced concrete members is established in this paper. According to the damage characteristics of reinforced concrete members subjected to cyclic loading, four judgment conditions for determining the rationality of damage models are put forward. An ideal damage index (D) is supposed to vary within a scale of zero (no damage) to one (collapse). D should be a monotone increasing function which tends to increase in the case of the same displacement amplitude. As for members under large displacement amplitude loading, the growth rate of D should be greater than that of D under small amplitude displacement loading. Subsequently, the Park-Ang damage model, the Niu-Ren damage model, the Lu-Wang damage model and the proposed damage model are analyzed for 30 experimental reinforced concrete members, including slabs, walls, beams and columns. The results show that current damage models do not fully matches the reasonable judgment conditions, but the proposed damage model does. Therefore, a conclusion can be drawn that the proposed damage model can be used for evaluating and predicting damage performance of RC members under cyclic loading.

A Proposal for Testing Local Realism Without Using Assumptions Related to Hidden Variable States

Science.gov (United States)

Ryff, Luiz Carlos

1996-01-01

A feasible experiment is discussed which allows us to prove a Bell's theorem for two particles without using an inequality. The experiment could be used to test local realism against quantum mechanics without the introduction of additional assumptions related to hidden variables states. Only assumptions based on direct experimental observation are needed.

Hepatitis C bio-behavioural surveys in people who inject drugs-a systematic review of sensitivity to the theoretical assumptions of respondent driven sampling.

Science.gov (United States)

Buchanan, Ryan; Khakoo, Salim I; Coad, Jonathan; Grellier, Leonie; Parkes, Julie

2017-07-11

New, more effective and better-tolerated therapies for hepatitis C (HCV) have made the elimination of HCV a feasible objective. However, for this to be achieved, it is necessary to have a detailed understanding of HCV epidemiology in people who inject drugs (PWID). Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) can provide prevalence estimates in hidden populations such as PWID. The aims of this systematic review are to identify published studies that use RDS in PWID to measure the prevalence of HCV, and compare each study against the STROBE-RDS checklist to assess their sensitivity to the theoretical assumptions underlying RDS. Searches were undertaken in accordance with PRISMA systematic review guidelines. Included studies were English language publications in peer-reviewed journals, which reported the use of RDS to recruit PWID to an HCV bio-behavioural survey. Data was extracted under three headings: (1) survey overview, (2) survey outcomes, and (3) reporting against selected STROBE-RDS criteria. Thirty-one studies met the inclusion criteria. They varied in scale (range 1-15 survey sites) and the sample sizes achieved (range 81-1000 per survey site) but were consistent in describing the use of standard RDS methods including: seeds, coupons and recruitment incentives. Twenty-seven studies (87%) either calculated or reported the intention to calculate population prevalence estimates for HCV and two used RDS data to calculate the total population size of PWID. Detailed operational and analytical procedures and reporting against selected criteria from the STROBE-RDS checklist varied between studies. There were widespread indications that sampling did not meet the assumptions underlying RDS, which led to two studies being unable to report an estimated HCV population prevalence in at least one survey location. RDS can be used to estimate a population prevalence of HCV in PWID and estimate the PWID population size. Accordingly, as a single instrument, it is a useful tool for

Origins and Traditions in Comparative Education: Challenging Some Assumptions

Science.gov (United States)

Manzon, Maria

2018-01-01

This article questions some of our assumptions about the history of comparative education. It explores new scholarship on key actors and ways of knowing in the field. Building on the theory of the social constructedness of the field of comparative education, the paper elucidates how power shapes our scholarly histories and identities.

A Duopoly Manufacturers’ Game Model Considering Green Technology Investment under a Cap-and-Trade System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yi Zheng

2018-03-01

Full Text Available This research studied the duopoly manufacturers’ decision-making considering green technology investment and under a cap-and-trade system. It was assumed there were two manufacturers producing products which were substitutable for one another. On the basis of this assumption, the optimal production capacity, price, and green technology investment of the duopoly manufacturers under a cap-and-trade system were obtained. The increase or decrease of the optimal production quantity of the duopoly manufacturers under a cap-and-trade system was decided by their green technology level. The increase of the optimal price as well as the increase or decrease of the maximum expected profits were decided by the initial carbon emission quota granted by the government. Our research indicates that the carbon emission of unit product is inversely proportional to the market share of an enterprise and becomes an important index to measure the core competitiveness of an enterprise.

Unidirectional spreading of oil under solid ice

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weerasuriya, S.A.; Yapa, P.D.

1993-01-01

Equations are presented to describe the unidirectional spreading of oil under solid ice covers floating in calm water. These spreading equations are derived using a simplified form of the Navier-Stokes equations, and cover both the constant discharge and the constant volume modes. An equation for computing final slick length is also given. Laboratory experiments using physical models were conducted to verify the equations. The experiments used oils of different viscosities, ice cover roughnesses varying from smooth to rough, and a variety of discharge conditions. The emphasis of the study was on the dominant spreading mechanism for oil under ice, which is the buoyancy-viscous phase. The laboratory results agree closely with the theoretical predictions. Discrepancies can be attributed to the experimental difficulties and errors introduced from the assumptions made in deriving the theory. The equations presented will be useful in computing spreading rate during an accidental oil spill or in contingency planning. The equations are simple to use, suitable for hand calculations or for incorporation into numerical models for oil spill simulation. 24 refs., 10 figs., 1 tab

A Test of the Fundamental Physics Underlying Exoplanet Climate Models

Science.gov (United States)

Beatty, Thomas; Keating, Dylan; Cowan, Nick; Gaudi, Scott; Kataria, Tiffany; Fortney, Jonathan; Stassun, Keivan; Collins, Karen; Deming, Drake; Bell, Taylor; Dang, Lisa; Rogers, Tamara; Colon, Knicole

2018-05-01

A fundamental issue in how we understand exoplanet atmospheres is the assumed physical behavior underlying 3D global circulation models (GCMs). Modeling an entire 3D atmosphere is a Herculean task, and so in exoplanet GCMs we generally assume that there are no clouds, no magnetic effects, and chemical equilibrium (e.g., Kataria et al 2016). These simplifying assumptions are computationally necessary, but at the same time their exclusion allows for a large theoretical lee-way when comparing to data. Thus, though significant discrepancies exist between almost all a priori GCM predictions and their corresponding observations, these are assumed to be due to the lack of clouds, or atmospheric drag, or chemical disequilibrium, in the models (e.g., Wong et al. 2016, Stevenson et al. 2017, Lewis et al. 2017, Zhang et al. 2018). Since these effects compete with one another and have large uncertainties, this makes tests of the fundamental physics in GCMs extremely difficult. To rectify this, we propose to use 88.4 hours of Spitzer time to observe 3.6um and 4.5um phase curves of the transiting giant planet KELT-9b. KELT-9b has an observed dayside temperature of 4600K (Gaudi et al. 2017), which means that there will very likely be no clouds on the day- or nightside, and is hot enough that the atmosphere should be close to local chemical equilibrium. Additionally, we plan to leverage KELT-9b's high temperature to make the first measurement of global wind speed on an exoplanet (Bell & Cowan 2018), giving a constraint on atmospheric drag and magnetic effects. Combined, this means KELT-9b is close to a real-world GCM, without most of the effects present on lower temperature planets. Additionally, since KELT-9b orbits an extremely bright host star these will be the highest signal-to-noise ratio phase curves taken with Spitzer by more than a factor of two. This gives us a unique opportunity to make the first precise and direct investigation into the fundamental physics that are the

A Heckman Selection- t Model

KAUST Repository

Marchenko, Yulia V.

2012-03-01

Sample selection arises often in practice as a result of the partial observability of the outcome of interest in a study. In the presence of sample selection, the observed data do not represent a random sample from the population, even after controlling for explanatory variables. That is, data are missing not at random. Thus, standard analysis using only complete cases will lead to biased results. Heckman introduced a sample selection model to analyze such data and proposed a full maximum likelihood estimation method under the assumption of normality. The method was criticized in the literature because of its sensitivity to the normality assumption. In practice, data, such as income or expenditure data, often violate the normality assumption because of heavier tails. We first establish a new link between sample selection models and recently studied families of extended skew-elliptical distributions. Then, this allows us to introduce a selection-t (SLt) model, which models the error distribution using a Student\\'s t distribution. We study its properties and investigate the finite-sample performance of the maximum likelihood estimators for this model. We compare the performance of the SLt model to the conventional Heckman selection-normal (SLN) model and apply it to analyze ambulatory expenditures. Unlike the SLNmodel, our analysis using the SLt model provides statistical evidence for the existence of sample selection bias in these data. We also investigate the performance of the test for sample selection bias based on the SLt model and compare it with the performances of several tests used with the SLN model. Our findings indicate that the latter tests can be misleading in the presence of heavy-tailed data. © 2012 American Statistical Association.

Using survey data on inflation expectations in the estimation of learning and rational expectations models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ormeño, A.

2012-01-01

Do survey data on inflation expectations contain useful information for estimating macroeconomic models? I address this question by using survey data in the New Keynesian model by Smets and Wouters (2007) to estimate and compare its performance when solved under the assumptions of Rational

Concrete structures vulnerability under impact: characterization, modeling, and validation - Concrete slabs vulnerability under impact: characterization, modeling, and validation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xuan Dung Vu

2013-01-01

Concrete is a material whose behavior is complex, especially in cases of extreme loads. The objective of this thesis is to carry out an experimental characterization of the behavior of concrete under impact-generated stresses (confined compression and dynamic traction) and to develop a robust numerical tool to reliably model this behavior. In the experimental part, we have studied concrete samples from the VTT center (Technical Research Center of Finland). At first, quasi-static triaxial compressions with the confinement varies from 0 MPa (unconfined compression test) to 600 MPa were realized. The stiffness of the concrete increases with confinement pressure because of the reduction of porosity. Therefore, the maximum shear strength of the concrete is increased. The presence of water plays an important role when the degree of saturation is high and the concrete is subjected to high confinement pressure. Beyond a certain level of confinement pressure, the maximum shear strength of concrete decreases with increasing water content. The effect of water also influences the volumetric behavior of concrete. When all free pores are closed as a result of compaction, the low compressibility of the water prevents the deformation of the concrete, whereby the wet concrete is less deformed than the dry concrete for the same mean stress. The second part of the experimental program concerns dynamic tensile tests at different loading velocities, and different moisture conditions of concrete. The results show that the tensile strength of concrete C50 may increase up to 5 times compared to its static strength for a strain rate of about 100 s -1 . In the numerical part, we are interested in improving an existing constitutive coupled model of concrete behavior called PRM (Pontiroli-Rouquand-Mazars) to predict the concrete behavior under impact. This model is based on a coupling between a damage model which is able to describe the degradation mechanisms and cracking of the concrete at

On the "well-mixed" assumption and numerical 2-D tracing of atmospheric moisture

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. F. Goessling

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Atmospheric water vapour tracers (WVTs are an elegant tool to determine source–sink relations of moisture "online" in atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs. However, it is sometimes desirable to establish such relations "offline" based on already existing atmospheric data (e.g. reanalysis data. One simple and frequently applied offline method is 2-D moisture tracing. It makes use of the "well-mixed" assumption, which allows for treating the vertical dimension integratively. Here we scrutinise the "well-mixed" assumption and 2-D moisture tracing by means of analytical considerations in combination with AGCM-WVT simulations. We find that vertically well-mixed conditions are seldom met. Due to the presence of vertical inhomogeneities, 2-D moisture tracing (i neglects a significant degree of fast-recycling, and (ii results in erroneous advection where the direction of the horizontal winds varies vertically. The latter is not so much the case in the extratropics, but in the tropics this can lead to large errors. For example, computed by 2-D moisture tracing, the fraction of precipitation in the western Sahel that originates from beyond the Sahara is ~40%, whereas the fraction that originates from the tropical and Southern Atlantic is only ~4%. According to full (i.e. 3-D moisture tracing, however, both regions contribute roughly equally, showing that the errors introduced by the 2-D approximation can be substantial.

Polynomial factor models : non-iterative estimation via method-of-moments

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schuberth, Florian; Büchner, Rebecca; Schermelleh-Engel, Karin; Dijkstra, Theo K.

2017-01-01

We introduce a non-iterative method-of-moments estimator for non-linear latent variable (LV) models. Under the assumption of joint normality of all exogenous variables, we use the corrected moments of linear combinations of the observed indicators (proxies) to obtain consistent path coefficient and

The characteristics of RF modulated plasma boundary sheaths: An analysis of the standard sheath model

Science.gov (United States)

Naggary, Schabnam; Brinkmann, Ralf Peter

2015-09-01

The characteristics of radio frequency (RF) modulated plasma boundary sheaths are studied on the basis of the so-called ``standard sheath model.'' This model assumes that the applied radio frequency ωRF is larger than the plasma frequency of the ions but smaller than that of the electrons. It comprises a phase-averaged ion model - consisting of an equation of continuity (with ionization neglected) and an equation of motion (with collisional ion-neutral interaction taken into account) - a phase-resolved electron model - consisting of an equation of continuity and the assumption of Boltzmann equilibrium -, and Poisson's equation for the electrical field. Previous investigations have studied the standard sheath model under additional approximations, most notably the assumption of a step-like electron front. This contribution presents an investigation and parameter study of the standard sheath model which avoids any further assumptions. The resulting density profiles and overall charge-voltage characteristics are compared with those of the step-model based theories. The authors gratefully acknowledge Efe Kemaneci for helpful comments and fruitful discussions.

Analysis of functional importance of binding sites in the Drosophila gap gene network model.

Science.gov (United States)

Kozlov, Konstantin; Gursky, Vitaly V; Kulakovskiy, Ivan V; Dymova, Arina; Samsonova, Maria

2015-01-01

The statistical thermodynamics based approach provides a promising framework for construction of the genotype-phenotype map in many biological systems. Among important aspects of a good model connecting the DNA sequence information with that of a molecular phenotype (gene expression) is the selection of regulatory interactions and relevant transcription factor bindings sites. As the model may predict different levels of the functional importance of specific binding sites in different genomic and regulatory contexts, it is essential to formulate and study such models under different modeling assumptions. We elaborate a two-layer model for the Drosophila gap gene network and include in the model a combined set of transcription factor binding sites and concentration dependent regulatory interaction between gap genes hunchback and Kruppel. We show that the new variants of the model are more consistent in terms of gene expression predictions for various genetic constructs in comparison to previous work. We quantify the functional importance of binding sites by calculating their impact on gene expression in the model and calculate how these impacts correlate across all sites under different modeling assumptions. The assumption about the dual interaction between hb and Kr leads to the most consistent modeling results, but, on the other hand, may obscure existence of indirect interactions between binding sites in regulatory regions of distinct genes. The analysis confirms the previously formulated regulation concept of many weak binding sites working in concert. The model predicts a more or less uniform distribution of functionally important binding sites over the sets of experimentally characterized regulatory modules and other open chromatin domains.

Procedure to predict the storey where plastic drift dominates in two-storey building under strong ground motion

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hibino, Y.; Ichinose, T.; Costa, J.L.D.

2009-01-01

A procedure is presented to predict the storey where plastic drift dominates in two-storey buildings under strong ground motion. The procedure utilizes the yield strength and the mass of each storey as well as the peak ground acceleration. The procedure is based on two different assumptions: (1....... The efficiency of the procedure is verified by dynamic response analyses using elasto-plastic model....

Validity of the isotropic thermal conductivity assumption in supercell lattice dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, Ruiyuan; Lukes, Jennifer R.

2018-02-01

Superlattices and nano phononic crystals have attracted significant attention due to their low thermal conductivities and their potential application as thermoelectric materials. A widely used expression to calculate thermal conductivity, presented by Klemens and expressed in terms of the relaxation time by Callaway and Holland, originates from the Boltzmann transport equation. In its most general form, this expression involves a direct summation of the heat current contributions from individual phonons of all wavevectors and polarizations in the first Brillouin zone. In common practice, the expression is simplified by making an isotropic assumption that converts the summation over wavevector to an integral over wavevector magnitude. The isotropic expression has been applied to superlattices and phononic crystals, but its validity for different supercell sizes has not been studied. In this work, the isotropic and direct summation methods are used to calculate the thermal conductivities of bulk Si, and Si/Ge quantum dot superlattices. The results show that the differences between the two methods increase substantially with the supercell size. These differences arise because the vibrational modes neglected in the isotropic assumption provide an increasingly important contribution to the thermal conductivity for larger supercells. To avoid the significant errors that can result from the isotropic assumption, direct summation is recommended for thermal conductivity calculations in superstructures.

A Note on the Identifiability of Generalized Linear Mixed Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Labouriau, Rodrigo

2014-01-01

I present here a simple proof that, under general regularity conditions, the standard parametrization of generalized linear mixed model is identifiable. The proof is based on the assumptions of generalized linear mixed models on the first and second order moments and some general mild regularity...... conditions, and, therefore, is extensible to quasi-likelihood based generalized linear models. In particular, binomial and Poisson mixed models with dispersion parameter are identifiable when equipped with the standard parametrization...

Models and algorithms for midterm production planning under uncertainty: application of proximal decomposition methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lenoir, A.

2008-01-01

We focus in this thesis, on the optimization process of large systems under uncertainty, and more specifically on solving the class of so-called deterministic equivalents with the help of splitting methods. The underlying application we have in mind is the electricity unit commitment problem under climate, market and energy consumption randomness, arising at EDF. We set the natural time-space-randomness couplings related to this application and we propose two new discretization schemes to tackle the randomness one, each of them based on non-parametric estimation of conditional expectations. This constitute an alternative to the usual scenario tree construction. We use the mathematical model consisting of the sum of two convex functions, a separable one and a coupling one. On the one hand, this simplified model offers a general framework to study decomposition-coordination algorithms by elapsing technicality due to a particular choice of subsystems. On the other hand, the convexity assumption allows to take advantage of monotone operators theory and to identify proximal methods as fixed point algorithms. We underlie the differential properties of the generalized reactions we are looking for a fixed point in order to derive bounds on the speed of convergence. Then we examine two families of decomposition-coordination algorithms resulting from operator splitting methods, namely Forward-Backward and Rachford methods. We suggest some practical method of acceleration of the Rachford class methods. To this end, we analyze the method from a theoretical point of view, furnishing as a byproduct explanations to some numerical observations. Then we propose as a response some improvements. Among them, an automatic updating strategy of scaling factors can correct a potential bad initial choice. The convergence proof is made easier thanks to stability results of some operator composition with respect to graphical convergence provided before. We also submit the idea of introducing

Evaluating growth assumptions using diameter or radial increments in natural even-aged longleaf pine

Science.gov (United States)

John C. Gilbert; Ralph S. Meldahl; Jyoti N. Rayamajhi; John S. Kush

2010-01-01

When using increment cores to predict future growth, one often assumes future growth is identical to past growth for individual trees. Once this assumption is accepted, a decision has to be made between which growth estimate should be used, constant diameter growth or constant basal area growth. Often, the assumption of constant diameter growth is used due to the ease...

Studies on the effect of flaw detection probability assumptions on risk reduction at inspection

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Simola, K.; Cronvall, O.; Maennistoe, I. (VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland (Finland)); Gunnars, J.; Alverlind, L.; Dillstroem, P. (Inspecta Technology, Stockholm (Sweden)); Gandossi, L. (European Commission Joint Research Centre, Brussels (Belgium))

2009-12-15

The aim of the project was to study the effect of POD assumptions on failure probability using structural reliability models. The main interest was to investigate whether it is justifiable to use a simplified POD curve e.g. in risk-informed in-service inspection (RI-ISI) studies. The results of the study indicate that the use of a simplified POD curve could be justifiable in RI-ISI applications. Another aim was to compare various structural reliability calculation approaches for a set of cases. Through benchmarking one can identify differences and similarities between modelling approaches, and provide added confidence on models and identify development needs. Comparing the leakage probabilities calculated by different approaches at the end of plant lifetime (60 years) shows that the results are very similar when inspections are not accounted for. However, when inspections are taken into account the predicted order of magnitude differs. Further studies would be needed to investigate the reasons for the differences. Development needs and plans for the benchmarked structural reliability models are discussed. (author)

Studies on the effect of flaw detection probability assumptions on risk reduction at inspection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simola, K.; Cronvall, O.; Maennistoe, I.; Gunnars, J.; Alverlind, L.; Dillstroem, P.; Gandossi, L.

2009-12-01

The aim of the project was to study the effect of POD assumptions on failure probability using structural reliability models. The main interest was to investigate whether it is justifiable to use a simplified POD curve e.g. in risk-informed in-service inspection (RI-ISI) studies. The results of the study indicate that the use of a simplified POD curve could be justifiable in RI-ISI applications. Another aim was to compare various structural reliability calculation approaches for a set of cases. Through benchmarking one can identify differences and similarities between modelling approaches, and provide added confidence on models and identify development needs. Comparing the leakage probabilities calculated by different approaches at the end of plant lifetime (60 years) shows that the results are very similar when inspections are not accounted for. However, when inspections are taken into account the predicted order of magnitude differs. Further studies would be needed to investigate the reasons for the differences. Development needs and plans for the benchmarked structural reliability models are discussed. (author)