WorldWideScience

Sample records for underlying global npdf

  1. Joint constraints on galaxy bias and σ{sub 8} through the N-pdf of the galaxy number density

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arnalte-Mur, Pablo; Martínez, Vicent J. [Observatori Astronòmic de la Universitat de València, C/ Catedràtic José Beltrán, 2, 46980 Paterna, València (Spain); Vielva, Patricio; Sanz, José L. [Instituto de Física de Cantabria (CSIC-UC), Avda. de Los Castros s/n, E-39005—Santander (Spain); Saar, Enn [Cosmology Department, Tartu Observatory, Observatooriumi 1, Tõravere (Estonia); Paredes, Silvestre, E-mail: pablo.arnalte@uv.es, E-mail: vielva@ifca.unican.es, E-mail: martinez@uv.es, E-mail: sanz@ifca.unican.es, E-mail: saar@to.ee, E-mail: silvestre.paredes@upct.es [Departamento de Matemática Aplicada y Estadística, Universidad Politécnica de Cartagena, C/Dr. Fleming s/n, 30203 Cartagena (Spain)

    2016-03-01

    We present a full description of the N-probability density function of the galaxy number density fluctuations. This N-pdf is given in terms, on the one hand, of the cold dark matter correlations and, on the other hand, of the galaxy bias parameter. The method relies on the assumption commonly adopted that the dark matter density fluctuations follow a local non-linear transformation of the initial energy density perturbations. The N-pdf of the galaxy number density fluctuations allows for an optimal estimation of the bias parameter (e.g., via maximum-likelihood estimation, or Bayesian inference if there exists any a priori information on the bias parameter), and of those parameters defining the dark matter correlations, in particular its amplitude (σ{sub 8}). It also provides the proper framework to perform model selection between two competitive hypotheses. The parameters estimation capabilities of the N-pdf are proved by SDSS-like simulations (both, ideal log-normal simulations and mocks obtained from Las Damas simulations), showing that our estimator is unbiased. We apply our formalism to the 7th release of the SDSS main sample (for a volume-limited subset with absolute magnitudes M{sub r} ≤ −20). We obtain b-circumflex  = 1.193 ± 0.074 and σ-bar{sub 8} = 0.862 ± 0.080, for galaxy number density fluctuations in cells of the size of 30h{sup −1}Mpc. Different model selection criteria show that galaxy biasing is clearly favoured.

  2. Forecasting phenology under global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibáñez, Inés; Primack, Richard B; Miller-Rushing, Abraham J; Ellwood, Elizabeth; Higuchi, Hiroyoshi; Lee, Sang Don; Kobori, Hiromi; Silander, John A

    2010-10-12

    As a consequence of warming temperatures around the world, spring and autumn phenologies have been shifting, with corresponding changes in the length of the growing season. Our understanding of the spatial and interspecific variation of these changes, however, is limited. Not all species are responding similarly, and there is significant spatial variation in responses even within species. This spatial and interspecific variation complicates efforts to predict phenological responses to ongoing climate change, but must be incorporated in order to build reliable forecasts. Here, we use a long-term dataset (1953-2005) of plant phenological events in spring (flowering and leaf out) and autumn (leaf colouring and leaf fall) throughout Japan and South Korea to build forecasts that account for these sources of variability. Specifically, we used hierarchical models to incorporate the spatial variability in phenological responses to temperature to then forecast species' overall and site-specific responses to global warming. We found that for most species, spring phenology is advancing and autumn phenology is getting later, with the timing of events changing more quickly in autumn compared with the spring. Temporal trends and phenological responses to temperature in East Asia contrasted with results from comparable studies in Europe, where spring events are changing more rapidly than are autumn events. Our results emphasize the need to study multiple species at many sites to understand and forecast regional changes in phenology.

  3. Forecasting phenology under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibáñez, Inés; Primack, Richard B.; Miller-Rushing, Abraham J.; Ellwood, Elizabeth; Higuchi, Hiroyoshi; Lee, Sang Don; Kobori, Hiromi; Silander, John A.

    2010-01-01

    As a consequence of warming temperatures around the world, spring and autumn phenologies have been shifting, with corresponding changes in the length of the growing season. Our understanding of the spatial and interspecific variation of these changes, however, is limited. Not all species are responding similarly, and there is significant spatial variation in responses even within species. This spatial and interspecific variation complicates efforts to predict phenological responses to ongoing climate change, but must be incorporated in order to build reliable forecasts. Here, we use a long-term dataset (1953–2005) of plant phenological events in spring (flowering and leaf out) and autumn (leaf colouring and leaf fall) throughout Japan and South Korea to build forecasts that account for these sources of variability. Specifically, we used hierarchical models to incorporate the spatial variability in phenological responses to temperature to then forecast species' overall and site-specific responses to global warming. We found that for most species, spring phenology is advancing and autumn phenology is getting later, with the timing of events changing more quickly in autumn compared with the spring. Temporal trends and phenological responses to temperature in East Asia contrasted with results from comparable studies in Europe, where spring events are changing more rapidly than are autumn events. Our results emphasize the need to study multiple species at many sites to understand and forecast regional changes in phenology. PMID:20819816

  4. Global hotspots of river erosion under global warming

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    Plink-Bjorklund, P.; Reichler, T.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme precipitation plays a significant role for river hydrology, flood hazards and landscape response. For example, the September 2013 rainstorm in the Colorado Front Range evacuated the equivalent of hundreds to thousands of years of hillslope weathering products. Although promoted by steep topography, the Colorado event is clearly linked to rainfall intensity, since most of the 1100 debris flows occurred within the highest rainfall contour. Additional evidence for a strong link between extreme precipitation and river erosion comes from the sedimentary record, and especially from that of past greenhouse climates. The existence of such a link suggests that information about global rainfall patterns can be used to define regions of increased erosion potential. However, the question arises what rainfall criteria to use and how well the method works. A related question is how ongoing climate change and the corresponding shifts in rainfall might impact the results. Here, we use atmospheric reanalysis and output from a climate model to identify regions that are particularly susceptible to landscape change in response to extreme precipitation. In order to define the regions, we combine several hydroclimatological and geomorphological criteria into a single index of erosion potential. We show that for current climate, our criteria applied to atmospheric reanalysis or to climate model data successfully localize known areas of increased erosion potential, such as the Colorado region. We then apply our criteria to climate model data for future climate to document how the location, extent, and intensity of erosion hotspots are likely to change under global warming.

  5. Global fishery prospects under contrasting management regimes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costello, Christopher; Ovando, Daniel; Clavelle, Tyler; Strauss, C Kent; Hilborn, Ray; Melnychuk, Michael C; Branch, Trevor A; Gaines, Steven D; Szuwalski, Cody S; Cabral, Reniel B; Rader, Douglas N; Leland, Amanda

    2016-05-03

    Data from 4,713 fisheries worldwide, representing 78% of global reported fish catch, are analyzed to estimate the status, trends, and benefits of alternative approaches to recovering depleted fisheries. For each fishery, we estimate current biological status and forecast the impacts of contrasting management regimes on catch, profit, and biomass of fish in the sea. We estimate unique recovery targets and trajectories for each fishery, calculate the year-by-year effects of alternative recovery approaches, and model how alternative institutional reforms affect recovery outcomes. Current status is highly heterogeneous-the median fishery is in poor health (overfished, with further overfishing occurring), although 32% of fisheries are in good biological, although not necessarily economic, condition. Our business-as-usual scenario projects further divergence and continued collapse for many of the world's fisheries. Applying sound management reforms to global fisheries in our dataset could generate annual increases exceeding 16 million metric tons (MMT) in catch, $53 billion in profit, and 619 MMT in biomass relative to business as usual. We also find that, with appropriate reforms, recovery can happen quickly, with the median fishery taking under 10 y to reach recovery targets. Our results show that commonsense reforms to fishery management would dramatically improve overall fish abundance while increasing food security and profits.

  6. AFRICA'S FOOD SECURITY UNDER GLOBALIZATION | Kent ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Advocates of globalization favor market liberalization and export-oriented agriculture. They favor large-scale operations with high levels of mechanization. For the advocates of globalization, the basis of food security is wealth, and the possibility of obtaining food from diverse sources through the open market. The critics see ...

  7. ECONOMIC NATIONALISM’S VIABILITY UNDER GLOBALIZATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Mihaela ILIESCU

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The path undertaken by the world economy is irreversible - the world economic system is a system based on interdependencies, cooperation and multilateralism but economic openness is not full. Each country, in order to protect their national interest call, in different proportion, depending on the circumstances and of the economic-social and political interests, for different forms of the economic nationalism, forms that have adapted continuously to the demands required for integrating on the foreign markets. The recent global economic crisis intensified the rhetoric and the economic nationalism’s practices but it is not about rebirth, but of renewal, of remodeling the nationalist policies, globalization being a premise of the new economic nationalism. The scope of this paper is to emphasize using empirical data the fact that nationalism and globalization, from an economical point of view, are not antagonistic policies, they coexist and influence each other, both generating contradictory effects, in terms of provided opportunities and risks.

  8. Atmospheric General Circulation Changes under Global Warming

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    Palipane, Erool

    The work in this thesis is mainly two-fold. First we study the internal variability of the general circulation and focus our study on the annular modes and how important it is to simulate the subsynoptic scales in the circulation. In the next major section we will try to understand the mechanisms of the forced response and the mechanisms leading towards the jet shift from transient evolution in Atmospheric general circulation models. In the first part, in an attempt to assess the benefit of resolving the sub-synoptic to mesoscale processes, the spatial and temporal characteristics of the Annular Modes (AMs), in particular those related to the troposphere-stratosphere interaction, are evaluated for moderate- and high-horizontal resolution simulations with a global atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), in comparison with the ERA40 re- analysis. Relative to the CMIP-type climate models, the IFS AGCM demonstrates notable improvement in capturing the key characteristics of the AMs. Notably, the performance with the high horizontal resolution version of the model is systematically superior to the moderate resolution on all metrics examined, including the variance of the AMs at different seasons of the year, the intrinsic e-folding time scales of the AMs, and the downward influence from the stratosphere to troposphere in the AMs. Moreover, the high-resolution simulation with a greater persistence in the intrinsic variability of the SAM projects an appreciably larger shift of the surface westerly wind during the Southern Hemisphere summer under climate change. In the second part, the response of the atmospheric circulation to greenhouse gas-induced SST warming is investigated using large ensemble experiments with two AGCMs, with a focus on the robust feature of the poleward shift of the eddy driven jet. In these experiments, large ensembles of simulations are conducted by abruptly switching the SST forcing on from January 1st to focus on the wintertime circulation

  9. Marine ecosystems in alteration under global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prestrud, Paal

    2004-01-01

    It is commonly thought among fishermen, researchers and in the fishing industries that the administration and harvesting of the fish resources is more important for the stock of fish than are changes in the climate. However, many scientific investigations now link changes in temperature with changes in the spreading, survival and beginning of life processes. There is solid evidence that there are important changes in progress in the North Atlantic marine ecosystem caused by global warming. If the heating of the water masses continues, it will probably have a large impact on the ocean's productivity and consequently for the fishing industry

  10. Global Dirac bispinor entanglement under Lorentz boosts

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    Bittencourt, Victor A. S. V.; Bernardini, Alex E.; Blasone, Massimo

    2018-03-01

    The effects of Lorentz boosts on the quantum entanglement encoded by a pair of massive spin-1/2 particles are described according to the Lorentz covariant structure described by Dirac bispinors. The quantum system considered incorporates four degrees of freedom: two of them related to the bispinor intrinsic parity and the other two related to the bispinor spin projection, i.e., the Dirac particle helicity. Because of the natural multipartite structure involved, the Meyer-Wallach global measure of entanglement is preliminarily used for computing global quantum correlations, while the entanglement separately encoded by spin degrees of freedom is measured through the negativity of the reduced two-particle spin-spin state. A general framework to compute the changes on quantum entanglement induced by a boost is developed and then specialized to describe three particular antisymmetric two-particle states. According to the results obtained, two-particle spin-spin entanglement cannot be created by the action of a Lorentz boost in a spin-spin separable antisymmetric state. On the other hand, the maximal spin-spin entanglement encoded by antisymmetric superpositions is degraded by Lorentz boosts driven by high-speed frame transformations. Finally, the effects of boosts on chiral states are shown to exhibit interesting invariance properties, which can only be obtained through such a Lorentz covariant formulation of the problem.

  11. Island development: Local governance under globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huei-Min Tsai

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Issues surrounding island development have generated a growing volume of research. What does it mean to develop? How can island communities maintain control over development processes to the benefit of the local economy, rather than seeing economic flows enter and exit the island with little or a primarily negative impact? And how important is local knowledge for edifying local governance and enhancing potentials for innovation in island development? Island histories have repeatedly been forwarded as exemplars and ‘lessons’ for global learning on (unsustainability. To consider these issues, we have selected a number of papers from among the presentations given at the International Geographical Union’s Commission on Islands Conference, Island Development: Local Economy, Culture, Innovation and Sustainability, which took place in the Penghu Archipelago, Taiwan, 1–5 October 2013. These papers serve as examples of how the processes of globalization have penetrated the borders and changed the political and economic structures of islands. They also explore how island-based innovations in science, technology, culture, and formal or informal governance might contribute to sustainable island development.

  12. Estimated migration rates under scenarios of global climate change.

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    Jay R. Malcolm; Adam Markham; Ronald P. Neilson; Michael. Oaraci

    2002-01-01

    Greefihouse-induced warming and resulting shifts in climatic zones may exceed the migration capabilities of some species. We used fourteen combinations of General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Global Vegetation Models (GVMs) to investigate possible migration rates required under CO2 doubled climatic forcing.

  13. Separable mechanisms underlying global feature-based attention.

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    Bondarenko, Rowena; Boehler, Carsten N; Stoppel, Christian M; Heinze, Hans-Jochen; Schoenfeld, Mircea A; Hopf, Jens-Max

    2012-10-31

    Feature-based attention is known to operate in a spatially global manner, in that the selection of attended features is not bound to the spatial focus of attention. Here we used electromagnetic recordings in human observers to characterize the spatiotemporal signature of such global selection of an orientation feature. Observers performed a simple orientation-discrimination task while ignoring task-irrelevant orientation probes outside the focus of attention. We observed that global feature-based selection, indexed by the brain response to unattended orientation probes, is composed of separable functional components. One such component reflects global selection based on the similarity of the probe with task-relevant orientation values ("template matching"), which is followed by a component reflecting selection based on the similarity of the probe with the orientation value under discrimination in the focus of attention ("discrimination matching"). Importantly, template matching occurs at ∼150 ms after stimulus onset, ∼80 ms before the onset of discrimination matching. Moreover, source activity underlying template matching and discrimination matching was found to originate from ventral extrastriate cortex, with the former being generated in more anterolateral and the latter in more posteromedial parts, suggesting template matching to occur in visual cortex higher up in the visual processing hierarchy than discrimination matching. We take these observations to indicate that the population-level signature of global feature-based selection reflects a sequence of hierarchically ordered operations in extrastriate visual cortex, in which the selection based on task relevance has temporal priority over the selection based on the sensory similarity between input representations.

  14. Creative Industries: Development Processes Under Contemporary Conditions of Globalization

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    Valerija Kontrimienė

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the processes of developing creative industries under conditions of a growth in the worldwide economy and globalization, discloses the role of the sector of creative industries and shows its place in the system of the modern global economy. The paper presents a comparative analysis of theories and theoretical approaches intended for the sector of creative industries and its development as well as defines regularities and specificities characteristic of the development of creative industries. Particular attention is shifted on the growth and development of creative industries considering the current challenges of globalization and on the most important specificities of the developing sector in the context of the challenges of economic globalization. The paper examines the trends reflecting the place of the sector of creative industries in the economy of the modern world, including the tendencies indicating changes in the export of the products created in this sector. The article considers the issues of developing creative industries and reveals priorities of future research.

  15. Plant - microbe interactions under Global Change: the microbial perspective

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    Richter, Andreas

    2017-04-01

    There is ample evidence that both microorganisms and plants will respond to Global Changes, such as enhanced temperatures, increased nitrogen deposition and atmospheric CO2 concentrations, or biodiversity loss. Plant and microbial activities are linked, amongst other factors, by belowground carbon allocation and aboveground nutrient allocation, which may be altered under Global Changes to different extents. The effect of Global Changes on the interaction of plants and microbes is therefore often difficult to predict. In my talk, I will look at plant-microbe interactions from a microbial perspective. I will ask the question what the direct and indirect (plant-mediated) effects of Global Changes are on microbial activities in soil and what this in turn means for plants and for ecosystem-scale fluxes. I will present results from an in-situ drought experiment, from a long-term soil warming experiment and from a plant diversity experiment, where we investigated microbial growth and turnover, carbon and nutrient use efficiency and gross nutrient transformation rates.

  16. Future changes in global warming potentials under representative concentration pathways

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reisinger, Andy [New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre, PO Box 10002, Wellington 6143 (New Zealand); Meinshausen, Malte [Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (Germany); Manning, Martin, E-mail: andy.reisinger@nzagrc.org.nz [Climate Change Research Institute, Victoria University of Wellington (New Zealand)

    2011-04-15

    Global warming potentials (GWPs) are the metrics currently used to compare emissions of different greenhouse gases under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Future changes in greenhouse gas concentrations will alter GWPs because the radiative efficiencies of marginal changes in CO{sub 2}, CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O depend on their background concentrations, the removal of CO{sub 2} is influenced by climate-carbon cycle feedbacks, and atmospheric residence times of CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O also depend on ambient temperature and other environmental changes. We calculated the currently foreseeable future changes in the absolute GWP of CO{sub 2}, which acts as the denominator for the calculation of all GWPs, and specifically the GWPs of CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O, along four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) up to the year 2100. We find that the absolute GWP of CO{sub 2} decreases under all RCPs, although for longer time horizons this decrease is smaller than for short time horizons due to increased climate-carbon cycle feedbacks. The 100-year GWP of CH{sub 4} would increase up to 20% under the lowest RCP by 2100 but would decrease by up to 10% by mid-century under the highest RCP. The 100-year GWP of N{sub 2}O would increase by more than 30% by 2100 under the highest RCP but would vary by less than 10% under other scenarios. These changes are not negligible but are mostly smaller than the changes that would result from choosing a different time horizon for GWPs, or from choosing altogether different metrics for comparing greenhouse gas emissions, such as global temperature change potentials.

  17. The role stratification on Indian ocean mixing under global warming

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    Praveen, V.; Valsala, V.; Ravindran, A. M.

    2017-12-01

    The impact of changes in Indian ocean stratification on mixing under global warming is examined. Previous studies on global warming and associated weakening of winds reported to increase the stratification of the world ocean leading to a reduction in mixing, increased acidity, reduced oxygen and there by a reduction in productivity. However this processes is not uniform and are also modulated by changes in wind pattern of the future. Our study evaluate the role of stratification and surface fluxes on mixing focusing northern Indian ocean. A dynamical downscaling study using Regional ocean Modelling system (ROMS) forced with stratification and surface fluxes from selected CMIP5 models are presented. Results from an extensive set of historical and Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (rcp8.5) scenario simulations are used to quantify the distinctive role of stratification on mixing.

  18. Prediction of Typhoon Wind Speeds under Global Warming Conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choun, Young Sun; Kim, Min Kyu [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kang, Ju Whan; Kim, Yang Seon [Mokpo National University, Muan (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    The continuous increase of SST by global warming conditions in the western North Pacific Ocean results in an increased occurrence of supertyphoons in East Asia and the Korean Peninsula. Recent numerical experiments have found that the central pressures of two historical typhoons, Maemi (2003) and Rusa (2002), which recorded the highest storm surges along the coasts of the Korean Peninsula, dropped about 19 and 17 hPa, respectively, when considering the future SST (a warming of 3.9 .deg. C for 100 years) over the East China Sea. The maximum wind speeds increase under global warming conditions. The probability of occurrence of super-typhoons increases in the future. The estimated return period for supertyphoons affecting the Younggwang site is about 1,000,000 years.

  19. Prediction of Typhoon Wind Speeds under Global Warming Conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choun, Young Sun; Kim, Min Kyu; Kang, Ju Whan; Kim, Yang Seon

    2016-01-01

    The continuous increase of SST by global warming conditions in the western North Pacific Ocean results in an increased occurrence of supertyphoons in East Asia and the Korean Peninsula. Recent numerical experiments have found that the central pressures of two historical typhoons, Maemi (2003) and Rusa (2002), which recorded the highest storm surges along the coasts of the Korean Peninsula, dropped about 19 and 17 hPa, respectively, when considering the future SST (a warming of 3.9 .deg. C for 100 years) over the East China Sea. The maximum wind speeds increase under global warming conditions. The probability of occurrence of super-typhoons increases in the future. The estimated return period for supertyphoons affecting the Younggwang site is about 1,000,000 years.

  20. Neural Global Pattern Similarity Underlies True and False Memories.

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    Ye, Zhifang; Zhu, Bi; Zhuang, Liping; Lu, Zhonglin; Chen, Chuansheng; Xue, Gui

    2016-06-22

    The neural processes giving rise to human memory strength signals remain poorly understood. Inspired by formal computational models that posit a central role of global matching in memory strength, we tested a novel hypothesis that the strengths of both true and false memories arise from the global similarity of an item's neural activation pattern during retrieval to that of all the studied items during encoding (i.e., the encoding-retrieval neural global pattern similarity [ER-nGPS]). We revealed multiple ER-nGPS signals that carried distinct information and contributed differentially to true and false memories: Whereas the ER-nGPS in the parietal regions reflected semantic similarity and was scaled with the recognition strengths of both true and false memories, ER-nGPS in the visual cortex contributed solely to true memory. Moreover, ER-nGPS differences between the parietal and visual cortices were correlated with frontal monitoring processes. By combining computational and neuroimaging approaches, our results advance a mechanistic understanding of memory strength in recognition. What neural processes give rise to memory strength signals, and lead to our conscious feelings of familiarity? Using fMRI, we found that the memory strength of a given item depends not only on how it was encoded during learning, but also on the similarity of its neural representation with other studied items. The global neural matching signal, mainly in the parietal lobule, could account for the memory strengths of both studied and unstudied items. Interestingly, a different global matching signal, originated from the visual cortex, could distinguish true from false memories. The findings reveal multiple neural mechanisms underlying the memory strengths of events registered in the brain. Copyright © 2016 the authors 0270-6474/16/366792-11$15.00/0.

  1. Revealing the underlying drivers of disaster risk: a global analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peduzzi, Pascal

    2017-04-01

    Disasters events are perfect examples of compound events. Disaster risk lies at the intersection of several independent components such as hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Understanding the weight of each component requires extensive standardisation. Here, I show how footprints of past disastrous events were generated using GIS modelling techniques and used for extracting population and economic exposures based on distribution models. Using past event losses, it was possible to identify and quantify a wide range of socio-politico-economic drivers associated with human vulnerability. The analysis was applied to about nine thousand individual past disastrous events covering earthquakes, floods and tropical cyclones. Using a multiple regression analysis on these individual events it was possible to quantify each risk component and assess how vulnerability is influenced by various hazard intensities. The results show that hazard intensity, exposure, poverty, governance as well as other underlying factors (e.g. remoteness) can explain the magnitude of past disasters. Analysis was also performed to highlight the role of future trends in population and climate change and how this may impacts exposure to tropical cyclones in the future. GIS models combined with statistical multiple regression analysis provided a powerful methodology to identify, quantify and model disaster risk taking into account its various components. The same methodology can be applied to various types of risk at local to global scale. This method was applied and developed for the Global Risk Analysis of the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR). It was first applied on mortality risk in GAR 2009 and GAR 2011. New models ranging from global assets exposure and global flood hazard models were also recently developed to improve the resolution of the risk analysis and applied through CAPRA software to provide probabilistic economic risk assessments such as Average Annual Losses (AAL

  2. The global mean energy balance under cloud-free conditions

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    Wild, Martin; Hakuba, Maria; Folini, Dois; Ott, Patricia; Long, Charles

    2017-04-01

    A long standing problem of climate models is their overestimation of surface solar radiation not only under all-sky, but also under clear-sky conditions (Wild et al. 1995, Wild et al. 2006). This overestimation reduced over time in consecutive model generations due to the simulation of stronger atmospheric absorption. Here we analyze the clear sky fluxes of the latest climate model generation from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) against an expanded and updated set of direct observations from the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN). Clear sky climatologies from these sites have been composed based on the Long and Ackermann (2000) clear sky detection algorithm (Hakuba et al. 2017), and sampling issues when comparing with model simulated clear sky fluxes have been analyzed in Ott (2017). Overall, the overestimation of clear sky insolation in the CMIP5 models is now merely 1-2 Wm-2 in the multimodel mean, compared to 4 Wm-2 in CMIP3 and 6 Wm-2 in AMIPII (Wild et al. 2006). Still a considerable spread in the individual model biases is apparent, ranging from -2 Wm-2 to 10 Wm-2 when averaged over 53 globally distributed BSRN sites. This bias structure is used to infer best estimates for present day global mean clear sky insolation, following an approach developped in Wild et al. (2013, 2015, Clim. Dyn.) for all sky fluxes. Thereby the flux biases in the various models are linearly related to their respective global means. A best estimate can then be inferred from the linear regression at the intersect where the bias against the surface observations becomes zero. This way we obtain a best estimate of 247 Wm-2 for the global mean insolation at the Earth surface under cloud free conditions, and a global mean absorbed solar radiation of 214 Wm-2 in the cloud-free atmosphere, assuming a global mean surface albedo of 13.5%. Combined with a best estimate for the net influx of solar radiation at the Top of Atmosphere under cloud free conditions

  3. Expansion of global drylands under a warming climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Feng

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Global drylands encompassing hyper-arid, arid, semiarid, and dry subhumid areas cover about 41 percent of the earth's terrestrial surface and are home to more than a third of the world's population. By analyzing observations for 1948–2008 and climate model simulations for 1948–2100, we show that global drylands have expanded in the last sixty years and will continue to expand in the 21st~century. By the end of this century, the world's drylands (under a high greenhouse gas emission scenario are projected to be 5.8 × 106 km2 (or 10% larger than in the 1961–1990 climatology. The major expansion of arid regions will occur over southwest North America, the northern fringe of Africa, southern Africa, and Australia, while major expansions of semiarid regions will occur over the north side of the Mediterranean, southern Africa, and North and South America. The global dryland expansions will increase the population affected by water scarcity and land degradations.

  4. Regional climate change under high-end global warming

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    Sanderson, Michael; Hemming, Deborah; Betts, Richard

    2010-05-01

    Global emissions of greenhouse gases have continued to rise throughout the 20th and 21st centuries. If no steps are taken to reduce these emissions, it is likely that global temperatures will exceed the limit of 2 deg.C by 2100 (relative to the preindustrial period) desired by the EU. The climate projections from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) suggest that global temperatures will increase between 1.6 and 6.9 deg.C by 2100, relative to the preindustrial period. Global mean temperature increases of 4 deg.C or more (referred to as 'high-end' projections) are therefore entirely possible. Here, we examine changes in temperature and precipitation from several ensembles of climate models, focusing on those projections where global mean temperatures increase by 4 deg.C or more by the 2090s. We have examined projections from the AR4 models, and the Hadley Centre's perturbed physics ensembles (Qump; based on the HadCM3 climate model). One of the Qump ensembles included an interactive carbon cycle. Previous work has shown that feedbacks between climate and the carbon cycle can result in enhanced global warming. These ensembles used greenhouse gas concentrations from a subset of the SRES emission scenarios B1, A1B, A2 and A1FI. The results show that high-end climate change would be avoided if emissions follow the B1 trajectory. However, high-end changes become increasingly frequent under the A1B, A2 and A1FI scenarios (in that order). Overall, 52 of the 131 projections analysed were classed as high-end. The high-end projections suggest that 4 deg.C global warming could be reached by the 2080s, or by the 2070s if emissions are high. If feedbacks from the carbon cycle are strong, 4 deg.C could be reached as early as the 2060s, although our current understanding suggests that such strong feedbacks are unlikely. We also compared global maps of temperature and precipitation changes from the high-end and the remaining members of each ensemble. We found that, using multi

  5. Future aridity under conditions of global climate change

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    Asadi Zarch, Mohammad Amin; Sivakumar, Bellie; Malekinezhad, Hossein; Sharma, Ashish

    2017-11-01

    Global climate change is anticipated to cause some major changes in hydroclimatic conditions around the world. As aridity is a reliable indicator of potential available water, assessment of its changes under future climatic conditions is important for proper management of water. This study employs the UNESCO aridity/humidity index, which is a derivative of precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET), for assessment of aridity. Historical (1901-2005) simulations and future (2006-2100) projections of 22 global climate models (GCMs) from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are studied. The Nested Bias Correction (NBC) approach is used to correct possible biases of precipitation (simulated directly by the GCMs) and PET (estimated by applying FAO56-Penman-Monteith model on simulated parameters of the GCMs). To detect future aridity changes, the areal extents of the aridity zones in the past and future periods as well as through four sub-periods (2006-2025, 2026-2050, 2051-2075, and 2076-2100) of the future are compared. The results indicate that changes in climate will alter the areal extents of aridity zones in the future. In general, from the first sub-period towards the last one, the area covered by hyper-arid, arid, semi-arid, and sub-humid zones will increase (by 7.46%, 7.01%, 5.80%, and 2.78%, respectively), while the area of the humid regions will decrease (by 4.76%), suggesting that there will be less water over the global land area in the future. To understand the cause of these changes, precipitation and PET are also separately assumed to be stationary throughout the four future sub-periods and the resulting aridity changes are then analyzed. The results reveal that the aridity changes are mostly caused by the positive PET trends, even though the slight precipitation increase lessens the magnitude of the changes.

  6. Global Water Scarcity Assessment under Post-SRES Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanasaki, N.; Fujimori, S.

    2011-12-01

    A large number of future projections contributed to the fourth Assessment Report of IPCC were based on Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). Processes toward the fifth Assessment Report are under way, and post-SRES scenarios, called Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) are being prepared. One of the key challenges of SSP is provision of detailed socio-economic scenarios compared to SRES for impact, adaptation and vulnerability studies. In this study, a comprehensive global water scarcity assessment was conducted, using a state of the art global water resources model H08 (Hanasaki et al., 2008a, 2008b, 2010). We used a prototype of SSP developed by National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan. Two sets of socio economic scenarios and two sets of climate scenarios were prepared to run H08 for the period 2001-2100. Socio-economic scenarios include Business As Usual and High Mitigation Capacity. Climate scenarios include Reference and Mitigation which stabilizes green house gas concentration at a certain level. We analyzed the simulation results of four combinations, particularly focusing on the sensitivity of socio-economic scenarios to major water resources indices.

  7. Observed magnified runoff response to rainfall intensification under global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Jr-Chuan; Lee, Tsung-Yu; Lee, Jun-Yi

    2014-01-01

    Runoff response to rainfall intensification under global warming is crucial, but is poorly discussed due to the limited data length and human alteration. Historical rainfall and runoff records in pristine catchments in Taiwan were investigated through trend analysis and cross temperature difference analysis. Trend analysis showed that both rainfall and runoff in the 99.9-percentile have been significantly increasing in terms of frequency and intensity over the past four decades. Cross temperature difference analysis quantified that the rainfall and runoff extremes (including the 99.0–99.9-percentiles) may increase by 69.5% and 99.8%, respectively, under a future scenario of 1  ° C increase in temperature. This increase in intensity resembles the increase in intensity observed between 1971–1990 and 1991–2010. The amplified runoff response can be related to the limited catchment storage capacity being preoccupied by rainfall extremes. The quantified temperature effect on rainfall and runoff intensification can be a strong basis for designing scenarios, confirming and fusing GCMs’ results. In addition, the runoff amplification should be a warning for other regions with significant rainfall intensification. Appropriate strategies are indispensable and urgently needed to maintain and protect the development of societies. (paper)

  8. Municipal Energy Planning under Conditions of Globalization: Imperatives and Objectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Horban Vasylyna B.

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The article reveals the importance of energy planning for local authorities in the path of achieving the goals of sustainable development. The quintessence of energy planning in territorial communities of Ukraine and Europe has been outlined from the perspective of analyzing the infrastructure sectors of the municipal economy. The article is based on observing certain international methodologies related to local energy and climate planning. The evolution of Covenant of Mayors initiative is briefly described with a focus on its intensive expanding in terms of energy and climate issues. The experience in the development of municipal sustainable energy and climate action plans in European countries and Ukraine is studied. A survey of empirical data on the consumption of fuel and energy resources and greenhouse gas emissions in territorial communities of Ukraine and European countries is conducted. The European methodological guidelines on the subject under study are highlighted based on the key policy documents. A few practical examples of Ukrainian and European cities are presented in order to illustrate possible actions corresponding to the defined problem. A systematic framework is proposed to describe the various and complex aspects of energy planning in cities with regard to rational implementation of energy efficient measures. The innovative mechanisms, main barriers and opportunities for the effective implementation of energy efficient projects in territorial communities of Ukraine and European countries are revealed. It is substantiated that under the current conditions of globalization, using project-oriented paradigm, municipal energy planning instruments become key motivational factors for development sustainable energy policy.

  9. Changes in tropical precipitation cluster size distributions under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neelin, J. D.; Quinn, K. M.

    2016-12-01

    The total amount of precipitation integrated across a tropical storm or other precipitation feature (contiguous clusters of precipitation exceeding a minimum rain rate) is a useful measure of the aggregate size of the disturbance. To establish baseline behavior in current climate, the probability distribution of cluster sizes from multiple satellite retrievals and National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis is compared to those from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory high-resolution atmospheric model (HIRAM-360 and -180). With the caveat that a minimum rain rate threshold is important in the models (which tend to overproduce low rain rates), the models agree well with observations in leading properties. In particular, scale-free power law ranges in which the probability drops slowly with increasing cluster size are well modeled, followed by a rapid drop in probability of the largest clusters above a cutoff scale. Under the RCP 8.5 global warming scenario, the models indicate substantial increases in probability (up to an order of magnitude) of the largest clusters by the end of century. For models with continuous time series of high resolution output, there is substantial spread on when these probability increases for the largest precipitation clusters should be detectable, ranging from detectable within the observational period to statistically significant trends emerging only in the second half of the century. Examination of NCEP reanalysis and SSMI/SSMIS series of satellite retrievals from 1979 to present does not yield reliable evidence of trends at this time. The results suggest improvements in inter-satellite calibration of the SSMI/SSMIS retrievals could aid future detection.

  10. Khakasses under the conditions of globalization: mental deformations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Larisa V. Anzhiganova

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The article analyzes the deformations in the mentality of the Khakas, a Turkic-speaking ethnos of South Siberia. The authors understand mentality as an internally consistent mode of a people’s existence for the sake of survival of the ethnos as a whole by means of organizing knowledge into an ethnic worldview; through the creation of a stable hierarchy of ethnically articulated needs, interests and values; through a system of auto- and heterostereotypes; and by developing sustainable forms of behavior in various situations. Due to both external and internal impact, the mentality, a historically stable phenomenon, can suffer deformations. We understand these as a change in the basic elements of the mentality (needs, interests, values leading to reversible or irreversible transformations for the people. To document the mental deformations among the Khakass, the article compares traditional ethnic values with modern ones. The comparison makes use of two studies of values: an interdisciplinary study of the traditional outlook of the ethnos conducted in mid-1990s, an a sociological survey held in 2015. The analysis revealed that the hierarchy of basic traditional values, such as "native land", "Khakass people", "family" preserves its importance for ethnic actors as a resource for the preservation and development of the ethnos even under the conditions of globalization. However, the sociological survey recorded a change in the configuration of the entire value system among the Khakass people. “Family" as a value moves upfront, which follows the general historical pattern: an ethnos in a state of crisis returns to the basic, time-tested social institutions (family, clan. The latter are called upon to preserve the ethnos as a biopsychosocial community.

  11. Global projections of changing risks of flood under the global warming simulated by MIROC GCM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirabayashi, Y.; Kanae, S.

    2008-12-01

    Simulated daily discharge derived from a relatively high-resolution (T106; about 1.1-degree) general circulation model (GCM) was used to investigate future projections of population changes under risks of more frequent flooding. A statistically significant increase or decrease in flood frequency was not predicted in the 20th century, and they are first appeared around the middle of the 21st century in 21 of 30 large global rivers. Statistics of world disasters indicated that the mean population impacted by flood disasters from 1991 to 2000 was 1.45 billion (2.5% of total population). The simulated global mean population which has affected by daily discharge higher than the 20C 100-year flood (defined using daily discharge from 1901 to 2000) was about 0.51 billion (0.9% of total population) for 1991-2000, while for 2091-2100 this increases to 6.96 billion (9.5% of total population). Minimum of flood-affected population after the middle of the 21st century becomes higher than the maximum of flood-affected population in the 20th century. Annual fluctuation of the recorded flood-affected population was higher than that estimated using the modeled 20C 100-year flood. It is therefore important to show ranges of the flood-affected population in the model simulation using a statistical method, taking into account years when floods are concentrated in high- populated regions and years when most floods occurred in low-populated regions. Statistical analysis using the Monte Carlo approach revealed that the population experiencing daily discharge higher than the 20C 100-year flood from 2091 to 2100 is in the top 35% of the ranges of possible number of populations (sum of population in regions that were randomly selected from global land of the same area as the regions with flood discharge), while that in 1991-2000 was below 30% of the probable population sets. This result indicates that future flood increases will be more common in regions with high population densities.

  12. Global Stream Temperatures and Flows under Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Vliet, M. T.; Yearsley, J. R.; Franssen, W. H.; Ludwig, F.; Haddeland, I.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Kabat, P.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change will affect thermal and hydrologic regimes of rivers, having a direct impact on human water use and freshwater ecosystems. Here we assess the impact of climate change on stream temperature and streamflow globally. We used a physically-based stream temperature river basin model (RBM) linked to the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. The modelling framework was adapted for global application including impacts of reservoirs and thermal heat discharges, and was validated using observed water temperature and river discharge records in large river basins globally. VIC-RBM was forced with an ensemble of bias-corrected Global Climate Model (GCM) output resulting in global projections of daily streamflow and water temperature for the 21st century. Global mean and high (95th percentile) stream temperatures are projected to increase on average by 0.8-1.6 (1.0-2.2)°C for the SRES B1-A2 scenario for 2071-2100 relative to 1971-2000. The largest water temperature increases are projected for Europe, North America, Southeast Asia, South Africa and parts of Australia. In these regions, the sensitivities for warming are exacerbated by projected decreases in summer low flows. Large increases in water temperature combined with decreases in low flows are found for the southeastern U.S., Europe and eastern China. These regions could potentially be affected by increased deterioration of water quality and freshwater habitats, and reduced water available for beneficial uses such as thermoelectric power production.

  13. Reflection on Multicultural Education under the Background of Globalization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geng, Lihua

    2013-01-01

    As one of the development trends in world education, multicultural education has been confronted with a lot of difficulties in the globalization tide that becomes more and more open. On the basis of making an analysis of the background and connotation of generation of multicultural education, this paper reflects on multicultural education in…

  14. Global River Discharge and Water Temperature under Climate Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vliet, van M.T.H.; Franssen, W.H.P.; Yearsley, J.R.; Ludwig, F.; Haddeland, I.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Kabat, P.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change will affect hydrologic and thermal regimes of rivers, having a direct impact on freshwater ecosystems and human water use. Here we assess the impact of climate change on global river flows and river water temperatures, and identify regions that might become more critical for

  15. Divergent pheromone-mediated insect behaviour under global atmospheric change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edward B. Mondor; Michelle N. Tremblay; Caroline S. Awmack; Richard L. Lindroth

    2004-01-01

    While the effects of global atmospheric changes on vegetation and resulting insect populations('bottom-up interactions') are being increasingly studied, how these gases modify interactions among insects and their natural enemies ('top-down interactions') is less clear. As natural enemy efficacy is governed largely by behavioural mechanisms, altered...

  16. Global modelling of river water quality under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Franssen, Wietse H. P.; Yearsley, John R.

    2017-04-01

    Climate change will pose challenges on the quality of freshwater resources for human use and ecosystems for instance by changing the dilution capacity and by affecting the rate of chemical processes in rivers. Here we assess the impacts of climate change and induced streamflow changes on a selection of water quality parameters for river basins globally. We used the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and a newly developed global water quality module for salinity, temperature, dissolved oxygen and biochemical oxygen demand. The modelling framework was validated using observed records of streamflow, water temperature, chloride, electrical conductivity, dissolved oxygen and biochemical oxygen demand for 1981-2010. VIC and the water quality module were then forced with an ensemble of bias-corrected General Circulation Model (GCM) output for the representative concentration pathways RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 to study water quality trends and identify critical regions (hotspots) of water quality deterioration for the 21st century.

  17. Global Terrestrial Patterns of Precipitation Change under a Warming Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, R.

    2017-12-01

    Terrestrial global warming has occurred over the last century, especially since the 1950s. This study analyzes changes in global terrestrial precipitation patterns in period of 1950-2010 in an attempt to identify the influence of climate change on precipitation. The results indicate that there is no significant change globally or across latitude bands; nevertheless significant regional differences in precipitation changes are identified. The lack of a change in precipitation levels, or precipitation balance, at both the global and latitudinal band scales is a result of offsetting by opposing precipitation changes at the regional scales. Clear opposing precipitation change patterns appeared in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude band (NHM). Significant increases in precipitation were distributed throughout the western extent of NHM, including the North America, Europe and west of Central Asia, while decreases were observed over the eastern extent, namely, East Asia. A dynamical adjustment methodology was applied to precipitation data, which could identify the roles of atmospheric circulation (dynamic) and the residual (thermodynamic) forcing played in generating the opposing regional precipitation changes in the NHM. Distinct different changes of dynamic and thermodynamic precipitation were found in different regions. Increased precipitation in North America and southern Europe were caused by thermodynamic precipitation, while the dynamic precipitation presented decreased trend due to the positive sea level pressure trend. However, in northern Europe and west of Central Asia, dynamic and thermodynamic precipitation both contributed to the increased precipitation, but thermodynamic precipitation had larger amplitude. In East Asia, the decreased precipitation was a result of simultaneous decrease in dynamic and thermodynamic precipitation.

  18. Globalization of the automobile industry: traditional locations under pressure?

    OpenAIRE

    Spatz, Julius; Nunnenkamp, Peter

    2004-01-01

    Even though the automobile industry is technologically advanced, the increasing integration of low-income countries into the global division of labor has put competitive pressure on traditional automobile producing countries. New end-producers emerged in Asia, Latin America as well as Southern and Central Europe. In addition, the automobile industries of Germany, Japan and the United States engaged in outsourcing of relatively labor intensive segments of the value chain, especially on a regio...

  19. AREAS OF RUSSIAN CONSUMER MARKET TRANSNATIONALIZATION UNDER GLOBALIZATION

    OpenAIRE

    Snimschikova I. V.; Lazgiev M. M.

    2015-01-01

    In the article, transnationalization is considered as an objective factor of development in the context of globalization and the main areas of transnational corporations’ penetration in the Russian consumer market are identified. The Russian market is significantly attractive for commodity and food transnational corporations. The main objective of the majority of TNCs is the introduction and expansion to the markets in order to trade goods, produced in the third countries. Investment is prima...

  20. Analysis of Roanoke Region Weather Patterns Under Global Teleconnections

    OpenAIRE

    LaRocque, Eric John

    2006-01-01

    This work attempts to relate global teleconnections, through physical phenomena such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Artic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern to synoptic-scale weather patterns and precipitation in the Roanoke, Virginia region. The first chapter describes the behavior of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) by implementing non-homogeneous and homogeneous Markov Chain models on a monthly time series o...

  1. Resource subsidies between stream and terrestrial ecosystems under global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsen, Stefano; Muehlbauer, Jeffrey D.; Marti Roca, Maria Eugenia

    2016-01-01

    Streams and adjacent terrestrial ecosystems are characterized by permeable boundaries that are crossed by resource subsidies. Although the importance of these subsidies for riverine ecosystems is increasingly recognized, little is known about how they may be influenced by global environmental change. Drawing from available evidence, in this review we propose a conceptual framework to evaluate the effects of global change on the quality and spatiotemporal dynamics of stream–terrestrial subsidies. We illustrate how changes to hydrological and temperature regimes, atmospheric CO2 concentration, land use and the distribution of nonindigenous species can influence subsidy fluxes by affecting the biology and ecology of donor and recipient systems and the physical characteristics of stream–riparian boundaries. Climate-driven changes in the physiology and phenology of organisms with complex life cycles will influence their development time, body size and emergence patterns, with consequences for adjacent terrestrial consumers. Also, novel species interactions can modify subsidy dynamics via complex bottom-up and top-down effects. Given the seasonality and pulsed nature of subsidies, alterations of the temporal and spatial synchrony of resource availability to consumers across ecosystems are likely to result in ecological mismatches that can scale up from individual responses, to communities, to ecosystems. Similarly, altered hydrology, temperature, CO2 concentration and land use will modify the recruitment and quality of riparian vegetation, the timing of leaf abscission and the establishment of invasive riparian species. Along with morphological changes to stream–terrestrial boundaries, these will alter the use and fluxes of allochthonous subsidies associated with stream ecosystems. Future research should aim to understand how subsidy dynamics will be affected by key drivers of global change, including agricultural intensification, increasing water use and biotic

  2. THE ROMANIAN CONSUMER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE GLOBAL CRISIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SAVU MIHAELA

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available At present, consumers focus on meeting their higher needs, as opposed to previously meeting the base ones. However this trend is not among priorities for the Romanian consumer. He/she uses almost 43% of the total consumption expenditures for the purchase of food, being restricted in his/her choices by the income and the price of products. The food products analysed in the period 2001 – 2012 have an upward trend, but with no substantial differences. The only product category that has a downward trend is represented by wine and wine products. Consumption in Romania was negatively influenced by the effects of the global crisis for the products analysed, except for meat and meat products. Despite the fact that we are far from the average annual meat consumption, however, the highest quantity recorded in our country was in 2009.

  3. Divergent surface and total soil moisture projections under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, Alexis; Sheffield, Justin; Milly, Paul C.D.

    2017-01-01

    Land aridity has been projected to increase with global warming. Such projections are mostly based on off-line aridity and drought metrics applied to climate model outputs but also are supported by climate-model projections of decreased surface soil moisture. Here we comprehensively analyze soil moisture projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5, including surface, total, and layer-by-layer soil moisture. We identify a robust vertical gradient of projected mean soil moisture changes, with more negative changes near the surface. Some regions of the northern middle to high latitudes exhibit negative annual surface changes but positive total changes. We interpret this behavior in the context of seasonal changes in the surface water budget. This vertical pattern implies that the extensive drying predicted by off-line drought metrics, while consistent with the projected decline in surface soil moisture, will tend to overestimate (negatively) changes in total soil water availability.

  4. Mediterranean Agricultural Soil Conservation under global Change: The MASCC project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raclot, Damien; Ciampalini, Rossano

    2017-04-01

    The MASCC project (2016-2019, http://mascc-project.org) aims to address mitigation and adaptation strategies to global change by assessing current and future development of Mediterranean agricultural soil vulnerability to erosion in relation to projected land use, agricultural practices and climate change. It targets to i) assess the similarities/dissimilarities in dominant factors affecting the current Mediterranean agricultural soil vulnerability by exploring a wide range of Mediterranean contexts; ii) improve the ability to evaluate the impact of extreme events on both the current and projected agricultural soil vulnerability and the sediment delivery at catchment outlet; iii) evaluate the vulnerability and resilience of agricultural production to a combination of potential changes in a wide range of Mediterranean contexts, iv) and provide guidelines on sustainable agricultural conservation strategies adapted to each specific agro-ecosystem and taking into consideration both on- and off-site erosion effects and socio-economics issues. To achieve these objectives, the MASCC project consortium gather researchers from six Mediterranean countries (France, Morocco, Tunisia, Italy, Spain and Portugal) which monitor mid- to long-term environmental catchments and benefit from mutual knowledge created from previous projects and network. The major assets for MASCC are: i) the availability of an unrivalled database on catchment soil erosion and innovative agricultural practices comprising a wide range of Mediterranean contexts, ii) the capacity to better evaluate the impact of extreme events on soil erosion, iii) the expert knowledge of the LANDSOIL model, a catchment-scale integrated approach of the soil-landscape system that enables to simulate both the sediment fluxes at the catchment outlet and the intra-catchment soil evolving properties and iv) the multi-disciplinarity of the involved researchers with an international reputation in the fields of soil science

  5. Global Agriculture Yields and Conflict under Future Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rising, J.; Cane, M. A.

    2013-12-01

    Aspects of climate have been shown to correlate significantly with conflict. We investigate a possible pathway for these effects through changes in agriculture yields, as predicted by field crop models (FAO's AquaCrop and DSSAT). Using satellite and station weather data, and surveyed data for soil and management, we simulate major crop yields across all countries between 1961 and 2008, and compare these to FAO and USDA reported yields. Correlations vary by country and by crop, from approximately .8 to -.5. Some of this range in crop model performance is explained by crop varieties, data quality, and other natural, economic, and political features. We also quantify the ability of AquaCrop and DSSAT to simulate yields under past cycles of ENSO as a proxy for their performance under changes in climate. We then describe two statistical models which relate crop yields to conflict events from the UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict dataset. The first relates several preceding years of predicted yields of the major grain in each country to any conflict involving that country. The second uses the GREG ethnic group maps to identify differences in predicted yields between neighboring regions. By using variation in predicted yields to explain conflict, rather than actual yields, we can identify the exogenous effects of weather on conflict. Finally, we apply precipitation and temperature time-series under IPCC's A1B scenario to the statistical models. This allows us to estimate the scale of the impact of future yields on future conflict. Centroids of the major growing regions for each country's primary crop, based on USDA FAS consumption. Correlations between simulated yields and reported yields, for AquaCrop and DSSAT, under the assumption that no irrigation, fertilization, or pest control is used. Reported yields are the average of FAO yields and USDA FAS yields, where both are available.

  6. Provider Behavior Under Global Budgeting and Policy Responses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chao-Kai Chang MD, PhD

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Third-party payer systems are consistently associated with health care cost escalation. Taiwan’s single-payer, universal coverage National Health Insurance (NHI adopted global budgeting (GB to achieve cost control. This study captures ophthalmologists’ response to GB, specifically service volume changes and service substitution between low-revenue and high-revenue services following GB implementation, the subsequent Bureau of NHI policy response, and the policy impact. De-identified eye clinic claims data for the years 2000, 2005, and 2007 were analyzed to study the changes in Simple Claim Form (SCF claims versus Special Case Claims (SCCs. The 3 study years represent the pre-GB period, post-GB but prior to region-wise service cap implementation period, and the post-service cap period, respectively. Repeated measures multilevel regression analysis was used to study the changes adjusting for clinic characteristics and competition within each health care market. SCF service volume (low-revenue, fixed-price patient visits remained constant throughout the study period, but SCCs (covering services involving variable provider effort and resource use with flexibility for discretionary billing increased in 2005 with no further change in 2007. The latter is attributable to a 30% cap negotiated by the NHI Bureau with the ophthalmology association and enforced by the association. This study demonstrates that GB deployed with ongoing monitoring and timely policy responses that are designed in collaboration with professional stakeholders can contain costs in a health insurance–financed health care system.

  7. Statistical structure of intrinsic climate variability under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Xiuhua; Bye, John; Fraedrich, Klaus

    2017-04-01

    Climate variability is often studied in terms of fluctuations with respect to the mean state, whereas the dependence between the mean and variability is rarely discussed. We propose a new climate metric to measure the relationship between means and standard deviations of annual surface temperature computed over non-overlapping 100-year segments. This metric is analyzed based on equilibrium simulations of the Max Planck Institute-Earth System Model (MPI-ESM): the last millennium climate (800-1799), the future climate projection following the A1B scenario (2100-2199), and the 3100-year unforced control simulation. A linear relationship is globally observed in the control simulation and thus termed intrinsic climate variability, which is most pronounced in the tropical region with negative regression slopes over the Pacific warm pool and positive slopes in the eastern tropical Pacific. It relates to asymmetric changes in temperature extremes and associates fluctuating climate means with increase or decrease in intensity and occurrence of both El Niño and La Niña events. In the future scenario period, the linear regression slopes largely retain their spatial structure with appreciable changes in intensity and geographical locations. Since intrinsic climate variability describes the internal rhythm of the climate system, it may serve as guidance for interpreting climate variability and climate change signals in the past and the future.

  8. CORPORATE COMMUNICATION BIASES IN THE BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT UNDER GLOBALIZATION TRENDS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramona-Elena, Chiţu

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The development of the private sector, employers’ requirements of specific communication skills, the economic field division into numberless branches of activity – finance and banks, management, human resources, accounting, international relations, tourism – the presence of a certain literature in the field by means of translations, all such aspects represent grounded reasons for the existence of a global economic vocabulary in the Romanian language. Finding its origins in the structuralism philosophic principles and associated with the structuralism linguistic trends, economic language’s globalisation becomes obvious nowadays through the occurrence of a large number of linguistic borrowings. Classified into either needless or necessary borrowed lexical units, lexical units borrowed and completely or at all assimilated in the target language, such borrowings lay the foundation of what specialists in the field call corporate language. Considering that the total or partial lack of knowledge on such language can become a real barrier in achieving communication, this study aims at analysing the level to which such words are known by the employees in the business environments involved in economic international partnerships and in multinational organisations.

  9. Trade networks evolution under the conditions of stock market globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kopylova Olga Volodymyrivna

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The modern perception of the stock market in terms of information technologies rapid development and under the institutionalists influence has been significantly modified and becomes multifaceted. It was detected that the main function of the market is activated, information asymmetry is minimized and more advanced financial architecture space is formed through trade networks. Formation of the modern trade networks has started on the basis of the old infrastructure, that had the highest tendency to self-organization and adaptation. The proposed architecture of trade networks of the stock market has a very clear vector of subordination – from top to bottom and has a number of positive points.

  10. Increasing Winter Precipitation over Arid Central Asia under Global Warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shikai Song

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Precipitation has been considered to be a critical water source for both human livelihoods and ecosystems in Central Asia. Using observational data and gridded datasets, we studied the regional and seasonal differences of precipitation climate characteristics and variations in precipitation over Central Asia. Using observational data obtained from the China Meteorological Administration, Global Historical Climatology Network (V3.02, we divided Central Asia into four subregions (North, Center, Southwest, and Southeast based on the differences in seasonal cycles of precipitation. ‘Single peaks’ were detected as types of seasonal cycles over the North and the Southeast, while ‘two peaks’ was the type that occurred in the Southwest. For the Center, the zone of transition between the North and the Southwest, each monthly precipitation value was higher than the Southwest’s and less than the North’s. GPCC (R2 of 0.89, RMSE of 64.5 mm/year was proven to be the most suitable dataset of the four datasets (CRU, GPCC, MERRA, and TRMM to describe precipitation in Central Asia, based on validation against observational data, and used to detect the spatial and temporal trend of precipitation in Central Asia and four subregions during 1960–2013. No significant trends were observed for annual precipitation in Central Asia, while precipitation in winter displayed a significant increase (0.11 mm/year. Additionally, significantly increasing trends (0.16, 0.27, 0.13, and 0.13 mm/year were detected in spring, summer, autumn, and winter over the Southeast during 1960–2013.

  11. Regional to global changes in drought and implications for future changes under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Kam, J.

    2012-12-01

    Drought can have large impacts on multiple sectors, including agriculture, water resources, ecosystems, transport, industry and tourism. In extreme cases, regional drought can lead to food insecurity and famine, and in intensive agricultural regions, extend to global economic impacts in a connected world. Recent droughts globally have been severe and costly but whether they are becoming more frequent and severe, and the attribution of this, is a key question. Observational evidence at large scales, such as satellite remote sensing are often subject to short-term records and inhomogeneities, and ground based data are sparse in many regions. Reliance on model output is also subject to error and simplifications in the model physics that can, for example, amplify the impact of global warming on drought. This presentation will show the observational and model evidence for changes in drought, with a focus on the interplay between precipitation and atmospheric evaporative demand and its impact on the terrestrial water cycle and drought. We discuss the fidelity of climate models to reproduce our best estimates of drought variability and its drivers historically, and the implications of this on uncertainties in future projections of drought from CMIP5 models, and how this has changed since CMIP3.

  12. Changes in Large Precipitation Events Under Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neelin, J. D.; Sahany, S.; Stechmann, S. N.; Bernstein, D. N.

    2014-12-01

    Model-based studies have suggested that changes may occur in hydrologic variables associated with increased probability of high precipitation occurrences, such as the 95th percentile of daily precipitation intensity. It has been common to discuss changes in extreme events in terms of consequences of the shift of the mean of the distribution, or an increase in variance. Here we present a prototype for the behavior of changes in the distribution of precipitation event size, i.e., of the precipitation integrated from onset to termination of an event. It has been noted in observations that event size distributions exhibit a scale-free, approximately power-law range with a cutoff at large event sizes (Peters et al, 2010). A simple stochastic model for an atmospheric column moisture budget shows how this behavior arises and how the cutoff is controlled by the physical parameters of the system. A simple set of conditions implies that the frequency of the very largest events may be expected to exhibit disproportionate sensitivity to changes. Any increase in the variance of the moisture convergence, as is projected to occur in the warmer climate, is predicted to yield changes in the very largest event-size portion of the distribution. Precipitation event size distributions computed from high time-resolution output from the Community Earth System Model appear to fit this prototype well in current climate, consistent with the form of observed event size distributions. In an ensemble of 15 simulations under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for anthropogenic forcing increases, the very largest event portion of the distribution shows marked sensitivity, consistent with the simple prototype, with increases over most of the globe and strong regional increases. The theory suggests a set of conditions to evaluate for other climate quantities under which one should expect such sensitivity of probability of the very largest events.

  13. Changing hydrological conditions in the Po basin under global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coppola, Erika; Verdecchia, Marco; Giorgi, Filippo; Colaiuda, Valentina; Tomassetti, Barbara; Lombardi, Annalina

    2014-09-15

    The Po River is a crucial resource for the Italian economy, since 40% of the gross domestic product comes from this area. It is thus crucial to quantify the impact of climate change on this water resource in order to plan for future water use. In this paper a mini ensemble of 8 hydrological simulations is completed from 1960 to 2050 under the A1B emission scenario, by using the output of two regional climate models as input (REMO and RegCM) at two different resolutions (25 km-10 km and 25 km-3 km). The river discharge at the outlet point of the basin shows a change in the spring peak of the annual cycle, with a one month shift from May to April. This shift is entirely due to the change in snowmelt timing which drives most of the discharge during this period. Two other important changes are an increase of discharge in the wintertime and a decrease in the fall from September to November. The uncertainty associated with the winter change is larger compared to that in the fall. The spring shift and the fall decrease of discharge imply an extension of the hydrological dry season and thus an increase in water stress over the basin. The spatial distributions of the discharge changes are in agreement with what is observed at the outlet point and the uncertainty associated with these changes is proportional to the amplitude of the signal. The analysis of the changes in the anomaly distribution of discharge shows that both the increases and decreases in seasonal discharge are tied to the changes in the tails of the distribution, i.e. to the increase or decrease of extreme events. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Reduced interdecadal variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation under global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Jun; Liu, Zhengyu; Zhang, Shaoqing; Liu, Wei; Dong, Lina; Liu, Peng; Li, Hongli

    2016-03-22

    Interdecadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC-IV) plays an important role in climate variation and has significant societal impacts. Past climate reconstruction indicates that AMOC-IV has likely undergone significant changes. Despite some previous studies, responses of AMOC-IV to global warming remain unclear, in particular regarding its amplitude and time scale. In this study, we analyze the responses of AMOC-IV under various scenarios of future global warming in multiple models and find that AMOC-IV becomes weaker and shorter with enhanced global warming. From the present climate condition to the strongest future warming scenario, on average, the major period of AMOC-IV is shortened from ∼50 y to ∼20 y, and the amplitude is reduced by ∼60%. These reductions in period and amplitude of AMOC-IV are suggested to be associated with increased oceanic stratification under global warming and, in turn, the speedup of oceanic baroclinic Rossby waves.

  15. Reduced interdecadal variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Jun; Liu, Zhengyu; Zhang, Shaoqing; Liu, Wei; Dong, Lina; Liu, Peng; Li, Hongli

    2016-03-01

    Interdecadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC-IV) plays an important role in climate variation and has significant societal impacts. Past climate reconstruction indicates that AMOC-IV has likely undergone significant changes. Despite some previous studies, responses of AMOC-IV to global warming remain unclear, in particular regarding its amplitude and time scale. In this study, we analyze the responses of AMOC-IV under various scenarios of future global warming in multiple models and find that AMOC-IV becomes weaker and shorter with enhanced global warming. From the present climate condition to the strongest future warming scenario, on average, the major period of AMOC-IV is shortened from ˜50 y to ˜20 y, and the amplitude is reduced by ˜60%. These reductions in period and amplitude of AMOC-IV are suggested to be associated with increased oceanic stratification under global warming and, in turn, the speedup of oceanic baroclinic Rossby waves.

  16. Drought and Carbon Cycling of Grassland Ecosystems under Global Change: A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tianjie Lei

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, the increased intensity and duration of droughts have dramatically altered the structure and function of grassland ecosystems, which have been forced to adapt to this change in climate. Combinations of global change drivers such as elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration, warming, nitrogen (N deposition, grazing, and land-use change have influenced the impact that droughts have on grassland C cycling. This influence, to some extent, can modify the relationship between droughts and grassland carbon (C cycling in the multi-factor world. Unfortunately, prior reviews have been primarily anecdotal from the 1930s to the 2010s. We investigated the current state of the study on the interactive impacts of multiple factors under drought scenarios in grassland C cycling and provided scientific advice for dealing with droughts and managing grassland C cycling in a multi-factor world. Currently, adequate information is not available on the interaction between droughts and global change drivers, which would advance our understanding of grassland C cycling responses. It was determined that future experiments and models should specifically test how droughts regulate grassland C cycling under global changes. Previous multi-factor experiments of current and future global change conditions have studied various drought scenarios poorly, including changes in precipitation frequency and amplitude, timing, and interactions with other global change drivers. Multi-factor experiments have contributed to quantifying these potential changes and have provided important information on how water affects ecosystem processes under global change. There is an urgent need to establish a systematic framework that can assess ecosystem dynamic responses to droughts under current and future global change and human activity, with a focus on the combined effects of droughts, global change drivers, and the corresponding hierarchical responses of an ecosystem.

  17. The European climate under a 2 °C global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vautard, Robert; Stegehuis, Annemiek; Gobiet, Andreas; Mendlik, Thomas; Sobolowski, Stefan; Kjellström, Erik; Nikulin, Grigory; Watkiss, Paul; Landgren, Oskar; Teichmann, Claas; Jacob, Daniela

    2014-01-01

    A global warming of 2 °C relative to pre-industrial climate has been considered as a threshold which society should endeavor to remain below, in order to limit the dangerous effects of anthropogenic climate change. The possible changes in regional climate under this target level of global warming have so far not been investigated in detail. Using an ensemble of 15 regional climate simulations downscaling six transient global climate simulations, we identify the respective time periods corresponding to 2 °C global warming, describe the range of projected changes for the European climate for this level of global warming, and investigate the uncertainty across the multi-model ensemble. Robust changes in mean and extreme temperature, precipitation, winds and surface energy budgets are found based on the ensemble of simulations. The results indicate that most of Europe will experience higher warming than the global average. They also reveal strong distributional patterns across Europe, which will be important in subsequent impact assessments and adaptation responses in different countries and regions. For instance, a North–South (West–East) warming gradient is found for summer (winter) along with a general increase in heavy precipitation and summer extreme temperatures. Tying the ensemble analysis to time periods with a prescribed global temperature change rather than fixed time periods allows for the identification of more robust regional patterns of temperature changes due to removal of some of the uncertainty related to the global models’ climate sensitivity. (paper)

  18. Global wheat production potentials and management flexibility under the representative concentration pathways

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balkovic, Juraj; van der Velde, Marijn; Skalsky, Rastislav; Xiong, Wei; Folberth, Christian; Khabarov, Nikolay; Smirnov, Alexey

    2014-05-01

    Global wheat production is strongly linked with food security as wheat is one of the main sources of human nutrition. Increasing or stabilizing wheat yields in response to climate change is therefore imperative. To do so will require agricultural management interventions that have different levels of flexibility at regional level. Climate change is expected to worsen wheat growing conditions in many places and thus negatively impact on future management opportunities for sustainable intensification. We quantified, in a spatially explicit manner, global wheat yield developments under the envelope of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) under current and alternative fertilization and irrigation management to estimate future flexibility to cope with climate change impacts. A large-scale implementation of the EPIC model was integrated with the most recent information on global wheat cultivation currently available, and it was used to simulate regional and global wheat yields and production under historical climate and the RCP-driven and bias-corrected HadGEM2-ES climate projections. Fertilization and irrigation management scenarios were designed to project actual and exploitable (under current irrigation infrastructure) yields as well as the climate- and water-limited yield potentials. With current nutrient and water management, and across all RCPs, the global wheat production at the end of the century decreased from 50 to 100 Mt - with RCP2.6 having the lowest and RCP8.5 the highest impact. Despite the decrease in global wheat production potential on current cropland, the exploitable and climatic production gap of respectively 350 and 580 Mt indicates a considerable flexibility to counteract negative climate change impacts across all RCPs. Agricultural management could increase global wheat production by approximately 30% through intensified fertilization and 50% through improved fertilization and extended irrigation if nutrients or water

  19. THE INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS’ BEHAVIOUR UNDER THE IMPACT OF THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    PIRTEA MARILEN

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available On the subject of financial globalization a lot of literature has been written, annalyzing all sorts of effects ithad. Still, the changes induced by globalization at the level of the financial markets are not always clear. The veritableflooding of capitals, constantly moving, created a continuous game of investment opportunities, of arbitrationpossibilities and funding sources, made institutional investors adopt various attitudes, the role of institutional investorsin the activation of capital markets being sustained by the financial globalization and the extension of multinationalfinancial groups, on one side, and by the increased performance of the share and bond markets, on the other side.By the present paper, we propose to underline the behaviour of the main institutional investors (mutual funds,pension funds and hedge funds under the impact of the current global financial crisis, the modifications whichintervened in asset assignment and investment relocation, showing that the instability generated in the global financialsystem had immediate effects on all the portfolios of institutional investors, regardless of their classificationcategory.Under conditions of capital flow increase, adjusted by the global financial crisis, the presented analysis andempirical proofs show a tendency of institutional investors’ asset reallocation on developed markets and thewithdrawal from the emergent ones.

  20. Environmental and radiological remediation under Canada's global partnership program 2004-11 - 59185

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Washer, Michael J.

    2012-01-01

    Following the '911' attack on the USA in 2001 the international community under Canada's G8 leadership established a $20 billion Global Partnership initiative in 2002 to collaboratively address threats to global security posed by the proliferation and potential terrorist use of Weapons and Materials of Mass Destruction (WMMD) and related materials and knowledge. This major international initiative addressed four priority areas: (1) Chemical Weapon Destruction (2) Nuclear powered submarine eliminations (3) Nuclear and radiological security; and (4) Employment for former weapon scientists. Additionally the initiative has addressed Biological Non- Proliferation. Canada's execution of all these program areas has resulted in substantial environmental benefits aside from the eradication and securing of WMMD. This paper reviews the environmental and radiological remediation achievements of the four primary Global Partnership program areas addressed under Canadian funding 2004 through 2011. (author)

  1. Prerequisites for Forming the Institutional Concept of the National Economy Competitiveness under Conditions of Globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yaremenko Oleh L.

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The article attempts to prove that under conditions of globalization there have developed objective and subjective prerequisites for forming the institutional concept of the national economy. The objective prerequisites are the newest information and communication technologies, post-industrial trends and market transformation of civilization intensified by globalization. Under such conditions instability and volatility of the institutional environment both within national economies and at the international level are observed. The aggravation of the global competition between national economies actualizes the role of such institutional factors as political system, property, public administration, economic organization, culture, etc. The subjective prerequisites are related to the fact that the institutional economic theory is currently one of the leading trends in the modern world and Ukrainian economic thought. Interest in it is explained not only by the fact that it overcomes the limitations of a number of prerequisites for the mainstream, but also because it allows considering the modern economic processes in complex

  2. Retrospective analysis of "new" flame retardants in the global atmosphere under the GAPS Network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sum Chi; Sverko, Ed; Harner, Tom; Pozo, Karla; Barresi, Enzo; Schachtschneider, JoAnne; Zaruk, Donna; DeJong, Maryl; Narayan, Julie

    2016-10-01

    A retrospective analysis was conducted on air samples that were collected in 2005 under the Global Atmospheric Passive Sampling (GAPS) Network around the time period when the Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants came into force. Results are presented for several new flame retardants, including hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD), which was recently listed under the Convention (2013). These results represent the first global-scale distributions in air for these compounds. The targeted compounds are shown to have unique global distributions in air, which highlights the challenges in understanding the sources and environmental fate of each chemical, and ultimately in their assessments as persistent organic pollutants. The study also demonstrates the feasibility of using the PUF disk passive air sampler to study these new flame retardants in air, many of which exist entirely in the particle-phase as demonstrated in this study using a KOA-based partitioning model. Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. A possible constraint on regional precipitation intensity changes under global warming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gutowski, William J.; Kozak, K. A.; Arritt, R. W.

    2007-01-01

    Changes in daily precipitation versus intensity under a global warming scenario in two regional climate simulations of the United States show a well-recognized feature of more intense precipitation. More important, by resolving the precipitation intensity spectrum, the changes show a relatively...

  4. impact of climate change on European ecosystems under a 2C global warming

    OpenAIRE

    SAKALLI ABDULLA; DOSIO ALESSANDRO; CESCATTI ALESSANDRO

    2015-01-01

    The impact of climate change on European ecosystems under a 2C global warming has been assessed in the framework of the FP7 project IMPACT2C. Results have been published on official IMPACT2C web-atlas, available here: https://www.atlas.impact2c.eu/en/?no_popup=True

  5. Preparedness Formation of the Future Vocational Education Teachers to Occupational Adaptation under Conditions of Globalization Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sushentseva, Liliya

    2014-01-01

    The problem of the preparedness formation of future teachers of vocational training to the professional adaptation under conditions of globalization processes in society is considered. The analysis of scientific and educational literature devoted to the study of occupational adaptation and preparedness formation of specialists to it is carried…

  6. Global SUMOylation is a Molecular Mechanism Underlying Hypothermia-induced Ischemic Tolerance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang-ja eLee

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The molecular mechanisms underlying hypothermic neuroprotection have yet to be fully elucidated. Herein we demonstrate that global SUMOylation, a form of post-translational modification with the Small Ubiquitin-like MOdifer, participates in the multimodal molecular induction of hypothermia-induced ischemic tolerance. Mild (32°C to moderate (28°C hypothermic treatment(s during OGD (oxygen-glucose-deprivation or ROG (restoration of oxygen/glucose increased global SUMO-conjugation levels and protected cells (both SHSY5Y and E18 rat cortical neurons from OGD and ROG-induced cell death. Hypothermic exposure either before or after permanent middle cerebral artery occlusion (pMCAO surgery in wild type mice increased global SUMO-conjugation levels in the brain and in so doing protected these animals from pMCAO-induced ischemic damage. Of note, hypothermic exposure did not provide an additional increase in protection from pMCAO-induced ischemic brain damage in Ubc9 transgenic mice, which overexpress the sole E2 SUMO conjugating enzyme and thereby display elevated basal levels of global SUMOylation under normothermic conditions. Such evidence suggests that increases in global SUMOylation are critical and may account for a substantial part of the observed increase in cellular tolerance to brain ischemia caused via hypothermia.

  7. Assessing carbon dioxide removal through global and regional ocean alkalinization under high and low emission pathways

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Lenton

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2 levels continue to rise, increasing the risk of severe impacts on the Earth system, and on the ecosystem services that it provides. Artificial ocean alkalinization (AOA is capable of reducing atmospheric CO2 concentrations and surface warming and addressing ocean acidification. Here, we simulate global and regional responses to alkalinity (ALK addition (0.25 PmolALK yr−1 over the period 2020–2100 using the CSIRO-Mk3L-COAL Earth System Model, under high (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5; RCP8.5 and low (RCP2.6 emissions. While regionally there are large changes in alkalinity associated with locations of AOA, globally we see only a very weak dependence on where and when AOA is applied. On a global scale, while we see that under RCP2.6 the carbon uptake associated with AOA is only ∼ 60 % of the total, under RCP8.5 the relative changes in temperature are larger, as are the changes in pH (140 % and aragonite saturation state (170 %. The simulations reveal AOA is more effective under lower emissions, therefore the higher the emissions the more AOA is required to achieve the same reduction in global warming and ocean acidification. Finally, our simulated AOA for 2020–2100 in the RCP2.6 scenario is capable of offsetting warming and ameliorating ocean acidification increases at the global scale, but with highly variable regional responses.

  8. The global impact of ozone on agricultural crop yields under current and future air quality legislation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Dingenen, Rita; Dentener, Frank J.; Raes, Frank; Krol, Maarten C.; Emberson, Lisa; Cofala, Janusz

    In this paper we evaluate the global impact of surface ozone on four types of agricultural crop. The study is based on modelled global hourly ozone fields for the year 2000 and 2030, using the global 1°×1° 2-way nested atmospheric chemical transport model (TM5). Projections for the year 2030 are based on the relatively optimistic "current legislation (CLE) scenario", i.e. assuming that currently approved air quality legislation will be fully implemented by the year 2030, without a further development of new abatement policies. For both runs, the relative yield loss due to ozone damage is evaluated based on two different indices (accumulated concentration above a 40 ppbV threshold and seasonal mean daytime ozone concentration respectively) on a global, regional and national scale. The cumulative metric appears to be far less robust than the seasonal mean, while the seasonal mean shows satisfactory agreement with measurements in Europe, the US, China and Southern India and South-East Asia. Present day global relative yield losses are estimated to range between 7% and 12% for wheat, between 6% and 16% for soybean, between 3% and 4% for rice, and between 3% and 5% for maize (range resulting from different metrics used). Taking into account possible biases in our assessment, introduced through the global application of "western" crop exposure-response functions, and through model performance in reproducing ozone-exposure metrics, our estimates may be considered as being conservative. Under the 2030 CLE scenario, the global situation is expected to deteriorate mainly for wheat (additional 2-6% loss globally) and rice (additional 1-2% loss globally). India, for which no mitigation measures have been assumed by 2030, accounts for 50% of these global increase in crop yield loss. On a regional-scale, significant reductions in crop losses by CLE-2030 are only predicted in Europe (soybean) and China (wheat). Translating these assumed yield losses into total global economic

  9. Reduced interdecadal variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Jun; Liu, Zhengyu; Zhang, Shaoqing; Liu, Wei; Dong, Lina; Liu, Peng; Li, Hongli

    2016-01-01

    Interdecadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC-IV) plays an important role in climate variation and has significant societal impacts. Past climate reconstruction indicates that AMOC-IV has likely undergone significant changes. Despite some previous studies, responses of AMOC-IV to global warming remain unclear, in particular regarding its amplitude and time scale. In this study, we analyze the responses of AMOC-IV under various scenarios of future global warming in multiple models and find that AMOC-IV becomes weaker and shorter with enhanced global warming. From the present climate condition to the strongest future warming scenario, on average, the major period of AMOC-IV is shortened from ∼50 y to ∼20 y, and the amplitude is reduced by ∼60%. These reductions in period and amplitude of AMOC-IV are suggested to be associated with increased oceanic stratification under global warming and, in turn, the speedup of oceanic baroclinic Rossby waves. PMID:26951654

  10. Evolution of surface sensible heat over the Tibetan Plateau under the recent global warming hiatus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Lihua; Huang, Gang; Fan, Guangzhou; Qu, Xia; Zhao, Guijie; Hua, Wei

    2017-10-01

    Based on regular surface meteorological observations and NCEP/DOE reanalysis data, this study investigates the evolution of surface sensible heat (SH) over the central and eastern Tibetan Plateau (CE-TP) under the recent global warming hiatus. The results reveal that the SH over the CE-TP presents a recovery since the slowdown of the global warming. The restored surface wind speed together with increased difference in ground-air temperature contribute to the recovery in SH. During the global warming hiatus, the persistent weakening wind speed is alleviated due to the variation of the meridional temperature gradient. Meanwhile, the ground surface temperature and the difference in ground-air temperature show a significant increasing trend in that period caused by the increased total cloud amount, especially at night. At nighttime, the increased total cloud cover reduces the surface effective radiation via a strengthening of atmospheric counter radiation and subsequently brings about a clear upward trend in ground surface temperature and the difference in ground-air temperature. Cloud-radiation feedback plays a significant role in the evolution of the surface temperature and even SH during the global warming hiatus. Consequently, besides the surface wind speed, the difference in ground-air temperature becomes another significant factor for the variation in SH since the slowdown of global warming, particularly at night.

  11. Logistics Concepts at the Industrial Enterprise under Conditions of the Globalization of Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trushkina Nataliia V.

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the article is to assess the dynamics of indicators of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods and services; conduct a comparative analysis of logistics concepts used at industrial enterprises under conditions of the globalization of markets; determine the ways to improve the management of international production and distribution activities of industrial enterprises. The study analyzes the dynamics of volumes of exports–imports of goods and transport services in Ukraine; freight traffic by mode of transport; export, import and transit of goods; foreign direct investment from countries of the world in the Ukrainian economy. Modern information systems and logistics concepts used at industrial enterprises under conditions of the globalization of markets are considered. The ways to improve the management of international production and distribution activities of industrial enterprises are defined and systematized. Prospects for further research in this direction are the development of proposals for information support of providing services for customers of the industrial enterprise.

  12. Globally COnstrained Local Function Approximation via Hierarchical Modelling, a Framework for System Modelling under Partial Information

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Øjelund, Henrik; Sadegh, Payman

    2000-01-01

    be obtained. This paper presents a new approach for system modelling under partial (global) information (or the so called Gray-box modelling) that seeks to perserve the benefits of the global as well as local methodologies sithin a unified framework. While the proposed technique relies on local approximations......Local function approximations concern fitting low order models to weighted data in neighbourhoods of the points where the approximations are desired. Despite their generality and convenience of use, local models typically suffer, among others, from difficulties arising in physical interpretation...... simultaneously with the (local estimates of) function values. The approach is applied to modelling of a linear time variant dynamic system under prior linear time invariant structure where local regression fails as a result of high dimensionality....

  13. Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    John B Kim; Erwan Monier; Brent Sohngen; G Stephen Pitts; Ray Drapek; James McFarland; Sara Ohrel; Jefferson Cole

    2016-01-01

    We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a...

  14. Research on optimal investment path of transmission corridor under the global energy Internet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yuehui; Li, Pai; Wang, Qi; Liu, Jichun; Gao, Han

    2018-02-01

    Under the background of the global energy Internet, the investment planning of transmission corridor from XinJiang to Germany is studied in this article, which passes through four countries: Kazakhstan, Russia, Belarus and Poland. Taking the specific situation of different countries into account, including the length of transmission line, unit construction cost, completion time, transmission price, state tariff, inflation rate and so on, this paper constructed a power transmission investment model. Finally, the dynamic programming method is used to simulate the example, and the optimal strategies under different objective functions are obtained.

  15. A new conjugate gradient method and its global convergence under the exact line search

    Science.gov (United States)

    Omer, Osman; Rivaie, Mohd; Mamat, Mustafa; Abdalla, Awad

    2014-12-01

    The conjugate gradient methods are numerously used for solving nonlinear unconstrained optimization problems, especially of large scale. Their wide applications are due to their simplicity and low memory requirement. To analyze conjugate gradient methods, two types of line searches are used; exact and inexact. In this paper, we present a new method of nonlinear conjugate gradient methods under the exact line search. The theoretical analysis shows that the new method generates a descent direction in each iteration and globally convergent under the exact line search. Moreover, numerical experiments based on comparing the new method with other well known conjugate gradient methods show that the new is efficient for some unconstrained optimization problems.

  16. Flood Inundation Modelling Under Uncertainty Using Globally and Freely Available Remote Sensing Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, K.; Di Baldassarre, G.; Giustarini, L.; Solomatine, D. P.

    2012-04-01

    The extreme consequences of recent catastrophic events have highlighted that flood risk prevention still needs to be improved to reduce human losses and economic damages, which have considerably increased worldwide in recent years. Flood risk management and long term floodplain planning are vital for living with floods, which is the currently proposed approach to cope with floods. To support the decision making processes, a significant issue is the availability of data to build appropriate and reliable models, from which the needed information could be obtained. The desirable data for model building, calibration and validation are often not sufficient or available. A unique opportunity is offered nowadays by globally available data which can be freely downloaded from internet. This might open new opportunities for filling the gap between available and needed data, in order to build reliable models and potentially lead to the development of global inundation models to produce floodplain maps for the entire globe. However, there remains the question of what is the real potential of those global remote sensing data, characterized by different accuracy, for global inundation monitoring and how to integrate them with inundation models. This research aims at contributing to understand whether the current globally and freely available remote sensing data (e.g. SRTM, SAR) can be actually used to appropriately support inundation modelling. In this study, the SRTM DEM is used for hydraulic model building, while ENVISAT-ASAR satellite imagery is used for model validation. To test the usefulness of these globally and freely available data, a model based on the high resolution LiDAR DEM and ground data (high water marks) is used as benchmark. The work is carried out on a data-rich test site: the River Alzette in the north of Luxembourg City. Uncertainties are estimated for both SRTM and LiDAR based models. Probabilistic flood inundation maps are produced under the framework of

  17. Permafrost degradation and associated ground settlement estimation under 2 °C global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Donglin; Wang, Huijun

    2017-10-01

    Global warming of 2 °C above preindustrial levels has been considered to be the threshold that should not be exceeded by the global mean temperature to avoid dangerous interference with the climate system. However, this global mean target has different implications for different regions owing to the globally nonuniform climate change characteristics. Permafrost is sensitive to climate change; moreover, it is widely distributed in high-latitude and high-altitude regions where the greatest warming is predicted. Permafrost is expected to be severely affected by even the 2 °C global warming, which, in turn, affects other systems such as water resources, ecosystems, and infrastructures. Using air and soil temperature data from ten coupled model intercomparison project phase five models combined with observations of frozen ground, we investigated the permafrost thaw and associated ground settlement under 2 °C global warming. Results show that the climate models produced an ensemble mean permafrost area of 14.01 × 106 km2, which compares reasonably with the area of 13.89 × 106 km2 (north of 45°N) in the observations. The models predict that the soil temperature at 6 m depth will increase by 2.34-2.67 °C on area average relative to 1990-2000, and the increase intensifies with increasing latitude. The active layer thickness will also increase by 0.42-0.45 m, but dissimilar to soil temperature, the increase weakens with increasing latitude due to the distinctly cooler permafrost at higher latitudes. The permafrost extent will obviously retreat north and decrease by 24-26% and the ground settlement owing to permafrost thaw is estimated at 3.8-15 cm on area average. Possible uncertainties in this study may be mostly attributed to the less accurate ground ice content data and coarse horizontal resolution of the models.

  18. Global crop yield response to extreme heat stress under multiple climate change futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deryng, Delphine; Warren, Rachel; Conway, Declan; Ramankutty, Navin; Price, Jeff

    2014-01-01

    Extreme heat stress during the crop reproductive period can be critical for crop productivity. Projected changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events are expected to negatively impact crop yields and global food production. This study applies the global crop model PEGASUS to quantify, for the first time at the global scale, impacts of extreme heat stress on maize, spring wheat and soybean yields resulting from 72 climate change scenarios for the 21st century. Our results project maize to face progressively worse impacts under a range of RCPs but spring wheat and soybean to improve globally through to the 2080s due to CO 2 fertilization effects, even though parts of the tropic and sub-tropic regions could face substantial yield declines. We find extreme heat stress at anthesis (HSA) by the 2080s (relative to the 1980s) under RCP 8.5, taking into account CO 2 fertilization effects, could double global losses of maize yield (ΔY = −12.8 ± 6.7% versus − 7.0 ± 5.3% without HSA), reduce projected gains in spring wheat yield by half (ΔY = 34.3 ± 13.5% versus 72.0 ± 10.9% without HSA) and in soybean yield by a quarter (ΔY = 15.3 ± 26.5% versus 20.4 ± 22.1% without HSA). The range reflects uncertainty due to differences between climate model scenarios; soybean exhibits both positive and negative impacts, maize is generally negative and spring wheat generally positive. Furthermore, when assuming CO 2 fertilization effects to be negligible, we observe drastic climate mitigation policy as in RCP 2.6 could avoid more than 80% of the global average yield losses otherwise expected by the 2080s under RCP 8.5. We show large disparities in climate impacts across regions and find extreme heat stress adversely affects major producing regions and lower income countries. (paper)

  19. Global change in streamflow extremes under climate change over the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asadieh, Behzad; Krakauer, Nir Y.

    2017-11-01

    Global warming is expected to intensify the Earth's hydrological cycle and increase flood and drought risks. Changes over the 21st century under two warming scenarios in different percentiles of the probability distribution of streamflow, and particularly of high and low streamflow extremes (95th and 5th percentiles), are analyzed using an ensemble of bias-corrected global climate model (GCM) fields fed into different global hydrological models (GHMs) provided by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) to understand the changes in streamflow distribution and simultaneous vulnerability to different types of hydrological risk in different regions. In the multi-model mean under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario, 37 % of global land areas experience an increase in magnitude of extremely high streamflow (with an average increase of 24.5 %), potentially increasing the chance of flooding in those regions. On the other hand, 43 % of global land areas show a decrease in the magnitude of extremely low streamflow (average decrease of 51.5 %), potentially increasing the chance of drought in those regions. About 10 % of the global land area is projected to face simultaneously increasing high extreme streamflow and decreasing low extreme streamflow, reflecting the potentially worsening hazard of both flood and drought; further, these regions tend to be highly populated parts of the globe, currently holding around 30 % of the world's population (over 2.1 billion people). In a world more than 4° warmer by the end of the 21st century compared to the pre-industrial era (RCP8.5 scenario), changes in magnitude of streamflow extremes are projected to be about twice as large as in a 2° warmer world (RCP2.6 scenario). Results also show that inter-GHM uncertainty in streamflow changes, due to representation of terrestrial hydrology, is greater than the inter-GCM uncertainty due to simulation of climate change. Under both forcing

  20. Oligarchy versus Democracy and Regulation versus Deregulation under the Globalization Effect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dumitru-Alexandru BODISLAV

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available On capitalism that is created under the pressure of globalization there are created many economic systems that derived into a new model: the asymmetric model created from propriety rights’ perspective and the influence of interest groups, an asymmetric model that is called “oligarchy”(1. For a better understanding of oligarchy we consider an oligarchic society, where the political power is in the hands of the producers of goods, that tend to protect their propriety rights, but this way they create entry barriers, destroying the propriety rights of future potential producers. Capitalism was and is stressed by the (deregulation phenomena created by the competition which is shaped through globalization. With ease we can go from (deregulating to oligarchic pressure, which from the globalization’s perspective can give birth to the lagging or decoupling in the global economic system. This paper researches these two cases and inserts them into the global framework to result the evolution of society’s members’ welfare.

  1. Germination shifts of C3 and C4 species under simulated global warming scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Hongxiang; Yu, Qiang; Huang, Yingxin; Zheng, Wei; Tian, Yu; Song, Yantao; Li, Guangdi; Zhou, Daowei

    2014-01-01

    Research efforts around the world have been increasingly devoted to investigating changes in C3 and C4 species' abundance or distribution with global warming, as they provide important insight into carbon fluxes and linked biogeochemical cycles. However, changes in the early life stage (e.g. germination) of C3 and C4 species in response to global warming, particularly with respect to asymmetric warming, have received less attention. We investigated germination percentage and rate of C3 and C4 species under asymmetric (+3/+6°C at day/night) and symmetric warming (+5/+5°C at day/night), simulated by alternating temperatures. A thermal time model was used to calculate germination base temperature and thermal time constant. Two additional alternating temperature regimes were used to test temperature metrics effect. The germination percentage and rate increased continuously for C4 species, but increased and then decreased with temperature for C3 species under both symmetric and asymmetric warming. Compared to asymmetric warming, symmetric warming significantly overestimated the speed of germination percentage change with temperature for C4 species. Among the temperature metrics (minimum, maximum, diurnal temperature range and average temperature), maximum temperature was most correlated with germination of C4 species. Our results indicate that global warming may favour germination of C4 species, at least for the C4 species studied in this work. The divergent effects of asymmetric and symmetric warming on plant germination also deserve more attention in future studies.

  2. Tracking the global maximum power point of PV arrays under partial shading conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fennich, Meryem

    This thesis presents the theoretical and simulation studies of the global maximum power point tracking (MPPT) for photovoltaic systems under partial shading. The main goal is to track the maximum power point of the photovoltaic module so that the maximum possible power can be extracted from the photovoltaic panels. When several panels are connected in series with some of them shaded partially either due to clouds or shadows from neighboring buildings, several local maxima appear in the power vs. voltage curve. A power increment based MPPT algorithm is effective in identifying the global maximum from the several local maxima. Several existing MPPT algorithms are explored and the state-of-the-art power increment method is simulated and tested for various partial shading conditions. The current-voltage and power-voltage characteristics of the PV model are studied under different partial shading conditions, along with five different cases demonstrating how the MPPT algorithm performs when shading switches from one state to another. Each case is supplemented with simulation results. The method of tracking the Global MPP is based on controlling the DC-DC converter connected to the output of the PV array. A complete system simulation including the PV array, the direct current to direct current (DC-DC) converter and the MPPT is presented and tested using MATLAB software. The simulation results show that the MPPT algorithm works very well with the buck converter, while the boost converter needs further changes and implementation.

  3. Germination Shifts of C3 and C4 Species under Simulated Global Warming Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Hongxiang; Yu, Qiang; Huang, Yingxin; Zheng, Wei; Tian, Yu; Song, Yantao; Li, Guangdi; Zhou, Daowei

    2014-01-01

    Research efforts around the world have been increasingly devoted to investigating changes in C3 and C4 species' abundance or distribution with global warming, as they provide important insight into carbon fluxes and linked biogeochemical cycles. However, changes in the early life stage (e.g. germination) of C3 and C4 species in response to global warming, particularly with respect to asymmetric warming, have received less attention. We investigated germination percentage and rate of C3 and C4 species under asymmetric (+3/+6°C at day/night) and symmetric warming (+5/+5°C at day/night), simulated by alternating temperatures. A thermal time model was used to calculate germination base temperature and thermal time constant. Two additional alternating temperature regimes were used to test temperature metrics effect. The germination percentage and rate increased continuously for C4 species, but increased and then decreased with temperature for C3 species under both symmetric and asymmetric warming. Compared to asymmetric warming, symmetric warming significantly overestimated the speed of germination percentage change with temperature for C4 species. Among the temperature metrics (minimum, maximum, diurnal temperature range and average temperature), maximum temperature was most correlated with germination of C4 species. Our results indicate that global warming may favour germination of C4 species, at least for the C4 species studied in this work. The divergent effects of asymmetric and symmetric warming on plant germination also deserve more attention in future studies. PMID:25137138

  4. Germination shifts of C3 and C4 species under simulated global warming scenario.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongxiang Zhang

    Full Text Available Research efforts around the world have been increasingly devoted to investigating changes in C3 and C4 species' abundance or distribution with global warming, as they provide important insight into carbon fluxes and linked biogeochemical cycles. However, changes in the early life stage (e.g. germination of C3 and C4 species in response to global warming, particularly with respect to asymmetric warming, have received less attention. We investigated germination percentage and rate of C3 and C4 species under asymmetric (+3/+6°C at day/night and symmetric warming (+5/+5°C at day/night, simulated by alternating temperatures. A thermal time model was used to calculate germination base temperature and thermal time constant. Two additional alternating temperature regimes were used to test temperature metrics effect. The germination percentage and rate increased continuously for C4 species, but increased and then decreased with temperature for C3 species under both symmetric and asymmetric warming. Compared to asymmetric warming, symmetric warming significantly overestimated the speed of germination percentage change with temperature for C4 species. Among the temperature metrics (minimum, maximum, diurnal temperature range and average temperature, maximum temperature was most correlated with germination of C4 species. Our results indicate that global warming may favour germination of C4 species, at least for the C4 species studied in this work. The divergent effects of asymmetric and symmetric warming on plant germination also deserve more attention in future studies.

  5. Impacts of the Tropical Pacific Cold Tongue Mode on ENSO Diversity Under Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yang; Li, Jianping; Zhang, Wenjun; Chen, Quanliang; Feng, Juan; Zheng, Fei; Wang, Wei; Zhou, Xin

    2017-11-01

    The causes of ENSO diversity, although being of great interest in recent research, do not have a consistent explanation. This study provides a possible mechanism focused on the background change of the tropical Pacific as a response to global warming. The second empirical orthogonal function mode of the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the tropical Pacific, namely the cold tongue mode (CTM), represents the background change of the tropical Pacific under global warming. Using composite analysis with surface observations and subsurface ocean assimilation data sets, we find ENSO spatial structure diversity is closely associated with the CTM. A positive CTM tends to cool the SST in the eastern equatorial Pacific and warm the SST outside, as well as widen (narrow) zonal and meridional scales for El Niño (La Niña), and vice versa. Particularly in the positive CTM phase, the air-sea action center of El Niño moves west, resembling the spatial pattern of CP-El Niño. This westward shift of center is related to the weakened Bjerknes feedback (BF) intensity by the CTM. By suppressing the SSTA growth of El Niño in the eastern equatorial Pacific, the CTM contributes to more frequent occurrence of CP-El Niño under global warming.

  6. Nitrogen leaching from natural ecosystems under global change: a modelling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braakhekke, Maarten C.; Rebel, Karin T.; Dekker, Stefan C.; Smith, Benjamin; Beusen, Arthur H. W.; Wassen, Martin J.

    2017-12-01

    To study global nitrogen (N) leaching from natural ecosystems under changing N deposition, climate, and atmospheric CO2, we performed a factorial model experiment for the period 1901-2006 with the N-enabled global terrestrial ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS (Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator). In eight global simulations, we used either the true transient time series of N deposition, climate, and atmospheric CO2 as input or kept combinations of these drivers constant at initial values. The results show that N deposition is globally the strongest driver of simulated N leaching, individually causing an increase of 88 % by 1997-2006 relative to pre-industrial conditions. Climate change led globally to a 31 % increase in N leaching, but the size and direction of change varied among global regions: leaching generally increased in regions with high soil organic carbon storage and high initial N status, and decreased in regions with a positive trend in vegetation productivity or decreasing precipitation. Rising atmospheric CO2 generally caused decreased N leaching (33 % globally), with strongest effects in regions with high productivity and N availability. All drivers combined resulted in a rise of N leaching by 73 % with strongest increases in Europe, eastern North America and South-East Asia, where N deposition rates are highest. Decreases in N leaching were predicted for the Amazon and northern India. We further found that N loss by fire regionally is a large term in the N budget, associated with lower N leaching, particularly in semi-arid biomes. Predicted global N leaching from natural lands rose from 13.6 Tg N yr-1 in 1901-1911 to 18.5 Tg N yr-1 in 1997-2006, accounting for reductions of natural land cover. Ecosystem N status (quantified as the reduction of vegetation productivity due to N limitation) shows a similar positive temporal trend but large spatial variability. Interestingly, this variability is more strongly related to vegetation type than N input

  7. Globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tulio Rosembuj

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available There is no singular globalization, nor is the result of an individual agent. We could start by saying that global action has different angles and subjects who perform it are different, as well as its objectives. The global is an invisible invasion of materials and immediate effects.

  8. Globalization

    OpenAIRE

    Tulio Rosembuj

    2006-01-01

    There is no singular globalization, nor is the result of an individual agent. We could start by saying that global action has different angles and subjects who perform it are different, as well as its objectives. The global is an invisible invasion of materials and immediate effects.

  9. Projected global ground-level ozone impacts on vegetation under different emission and climate scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Sicard

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The impact of ground-level ozone (O3 on vegetation is largely under-investigated at the global scale despite large areas worldwide that are exposed to high surface O3 levels. To explore future potential impacts of O3 on vegetation, we compared historical and projected surface O3 concentrations simulated by six global atmospheric chemistry transport models on the basis of three representative concentration pathways emission scenarios (i.e. RCP2.6, 4.5, 8.5. To assess changes in the potential surface O3 threat to vegetation at the global scale, we used the AOT40 metric. Results point out a significant exceedance of AOT40 in comparison with the recommendations of UNECE for the protection of vegetation. In fact, many areas of the Northern Hemisphere show that AOT40-based critical levels will be exceeded by a factor of at least 10 under RCP8.5. Changes in surface O3 by 2100 worldwide range from about +4–5 ppb in the RCP8.5 scenario to reductions of about 2–10 ppb in the most optimistic scenario, RCP2.6. The risk of O3 injury for vegetation, through the potential O3 impact on photosynthetic assimilation, decreased by 61 and 47 % under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5, respectively, and increased by 70 % under RCP8.5. Key biodiversity areas in southern and northern Asia, central Africa and North America were identified as being at risk from high O3 concentrations.

  10. Projection of Heat Waves over China under Different Global Warming Targets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Xiaojun; Luo, Yong; Huang, Jianbin; Zhao, Zongci

    2015-04-01

    Global warming targets, which are determined in terms of global mean temperature increases relative to pre-industrial temperature levels, have been one of the heated issues recently. And the climate change (especially climate extremes) and its impacts under different targets have been paid extensive concerns. In this study, evaluation and projection of heat waves in China were carried out by five CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) with a 0.5°×0.5° horizontal resolution which were derived from EU WATCH project. A new daily observed gridded dataset CN05.1 (0.5°×0.5°) was also used to evaluate the GCMs. And four indices (heat waves frequency, longest heat waves duration, heat waves days and high temperature days) were adopted to analyze the heat waves. Compared with the observations, the five GCMs and its Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) have a remarkable capacity of reproducing the spatial and temporal characteristic of heat waves. The time correlation coefficients between MME and the observation results can all reach 0.05 significant levels. Based on the projection data of five GCMs, both the median year of crossing 1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°, 3°C, 3.5°C, 4°C, 4.5°C and 5°C global warming targets and the corresponding climate change over China were analyzed under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. The results show that when the global mean surface air temperature rise to different targets with respect to the pre-industrial times (1861-1880), the frequency and intensity of heat waves will increase dramatically. To take the high emission scenario RCP8.5 as an example, under the RCP8.5 scenario, the warming rate over China is stronger than that over the globe, the temperature rise(median year) over China projected by MME are 1.77°C(2025), 2.63°C(2039), 3.39°C(2050), 3.97°C(2060), 4.82°C(2070), 5.47°C(2079) and 6.2°C(2089) under 1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C, 3.5°C, 4°C and 4.5°C global warming targets, respectively. With the increase of the global

  11. The fragmentation instability of a black hole with f( R) global monopole under GUP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lingshen; Cheng, Hongbo

    2018-03-01

    Having studied the fragmentation of the black holes containing f( R) global monopole under the generalized uncertainty principle (GUP), we show the influences from this kind of monopole, f( R) theory, and GUP on the evolution of black holes. We focus on the possibility that the black hole breaks into two parts by means of the second law of thermodynamics. We derive the entropies of the initial black hole and the broken parts while the generalization of Heisenberg's uncertainty principle is introduced. We find that the f( R) global monopole black hole keeps stable instead of splitting without the generalization because the entropy difference is negative. The fragmentation of the black hole will happen if the black hole entropies are limited by the GUP and the considerable deviation from the general relativity leads to the case that the mass of one fragmented black hole is smaller and the other one's mass is larger.

  12. Change in ocean subsurface environment to suppress tropical cyclone intensification under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Ping; Lin, I. -I; Chou, Chia; Huang, Rong-Hui

    2015-01-01

    Tropical cyclones (TCs) are hazardous natural disasters. Because TC intensification is significantly controlled by atmosphere and ocean environments, changes in these environments may cause changes in TC intensity. Changes in surface and subsurface ocean conditions can both influence a TC's intensification. Regarding global warming, minimal exploration of the subsurface ocean has been undertaken. Here we investigate future subsurface ocean environment changes projected by 22 state-of-the-art climate models and suggest a suppressive effect of subsurface oceans on the intensification of future TCs. Under global warming, the subsurface vertical temperature profile can be sharpened in important TC regions, which may contribute to a stronger ocean coupling (cooling) effect during the intensification of future TCs. Regarding a TC, future subsurface ocean environments may be more suppressive than the existing subsurface ocean environments. This suppressive effect is not spatially uniform and may be weak in certain local areas. PMID:25982028

  13. Change in ocean subsurface environment to suppress tropical cyclone intensification under global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Ping; Lin, I-I; Chou, Chia; Huang, Rong-Hui

    2015-05-18

    Tropical cyclones (TCs) are hazardous natural disasters. Because TC intensification is significantly controlled by atmosphere and ocean environments, changes in these environments may cause changes in TC intensity. Changes in surface and subsurface ocean conditions can both influence a TC's intensification. Regarding global warming, minimal exploration of the subsurface ocean has been undertaken. Here we investigate future subsurface ocean environment changes projected by 22 state-of-the-art climate models and suggest a suppressive effect of subsurface oceans on the intensification of future TCs. Under global warming, the subsurface vertical temperature profile can be sharpened in important TC regions, which may contribute to a stronger ocean coupling (cooling) effect during the intensification of future TCs. Regarding a TC, future subsurface ocean environments may be more suppressive than the existing subsurface ocean environments. This suppressive effect is not spatially uniform and may be weak in certain local areas.

  14. Global assessment of river flood protection benefits and corresponding residual risks under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Wee Ho; Yamazaki, Dai; Koirala, Sujan; Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Kanae, Shinjiro; Dadson, Simon J.; Hall, Jim W.

    2016-04-01

    substantially when flood protection level exceeds 20 years. These findings might be useful for decision-makers to weight the size of water infrastructure investment and emergency response capacity under climate change. References: Arnell, N.W, Gosling, S.N., 2014. The impact of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale. Climatic Change 122: 127-140, doi: 10.1007/s10584-014-1084-5. Hirabayashi et al., 2013. Global flood risk under climate change. Nature Climate Change 3: 816-821, doi: 10.1038/nclimate1911. Jongman et al., 2015. Declining vulnerability to river floods and the global benefits of adaptation. Proceedings of National Academy of the United States of America 112, E2271-E2280, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1414439112. Sadoff et al., 2015. Securing Water, Sustaining Growth: Report of the GWP/OECD Task Force on Water Security and Sustainable Growth, University of Oxford, UK, 180 pp. Yamazaki et al., 2011. A physically based description of floodplain inundation dynamics in a global river routing model. Water Resources Research 47, W04501, doi: 10.1029/2010wr009726. Yamazaki et al., 2014. Development of the Global Width Database for Large Rivers. Water Resources Research 50, 3467-3480, doi: 10.1002/2013WR014664.

  15. A stochastic global identification framework for aerospace structures operating under varying flight states

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopsaftopoulos, Fotis; Nardari, Raphael; Li, Yu-Hung; Chang, Fu-Kuo

    2018-01-01

    In this work, a novel data-based stochastic "global" identification framework is introduced for aerospace structures operating under varying flight states and uncertainty. In this context, the term "global" refers to the identification of a model that is capable of representing the structure under any admissible flight state based on data recorded from a sample of these states. The proposed framework is based on stochastic time-series models for representing the structural dynamics and aeroelastic response under multiple flight states, with each state characterized by several variables, such as the airspeed, angle of attack, altitude and temperature, forming a flight state vector. The method's cornerstone lies in the new class of Vector-dependent Functionally Pooled (VFP) models which allow the explicit analytical inclusion of the flight state vector into the model parameters and, hence, system dynamics. This is achieved via the use of functional data pooling techniques for optimally treating - as a single entity - the data records corresponding to the various flight states. In this proof-of-concept study the flight state vector is defined by two variables, namely the airspeed and angle of attack of the vehicle. The experimental evaluation and assessment is based on a prototype bio-inspired self-sensing composite wing that is subjected to a series of wind tunnel experiments under multiple flight states. Distributed micro-sensors in the form of stretchable sensor networks are embedded in the composite layup of the wing in order to provide the sensing capabilities. Experimental data collected from piezoelectric sensors are employed for the identification of a stochastic global VFP model via appropriate parameter estimation and model structure selection methods. The estimated VFP model parameters constitute two-dimensional functions of the flight state vector defined by the airspeed and angle of attack. The identified model is able to successfully represent the wing

  16. Longevity of animals under reactive oxygen species stress and disease susceptibility due to global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paital, Biswaranjan; Panda, Sumana Kumari; Hati, Akshaya Kumar; Mohanty, Bobllina; Mohapatra, Manoj Kumar; Kanungo, Shyama; Chainy, Gagan Bihari Nityananda

    2016-02-26

    The world is projected to experience an approximate doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration in the next decades. Rise in atmospheric CO2 level as one of the most important reasons is expected to contribute to raise the mean global temperature 1.4 °C-5.8 °C by that time. A survey from 128 countries speculates that global warming is primarily due to increase in atmospheric CO2 level that is produced mainly by anthropogenic activities. Exposure of animals to high environmental temperatures is mostly accompanied by unwanted acceleration of certain biochemical pathways in their cells. One of such examples is augmentation in generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and subsequent increase in oxidation of lipids, proteins and nucleic acids by ROS. Increase in oxidation of biomolecules leads to a state called as oxidative stress (OS). Finally, the increase in OS condition induces abnormality in physiology of animals under elevated temperature. Exposure of animals to rise in habitat temperature is found to boost the metabolism of animals and a very strong and positive correlation exists between metabolism and levels of ROS and OS. Continuous induction of OS is negatively correlated with survivability and longevity and positively correlated with ageing in animals. Thus, it can be predicted that continuous exposure of animals to acute or gradual rise in habitat temperature due to global warming may induce OS, reduced survivability and longevity in animals in general and poikilotherms in particular. A positive correlation between metabolism and temperature in general and altered O2 consumption at elevated temperature in particular could also increase the risk of experiencing OS in homeotherms. Effects of global warming on longevity of animals through increased risk of protein misfolding and disease susceptibility due to OS as the cause or effects or both also cannot be ignored. Therefore, understanding the physiological impacts of global warming in relation to

  17. Longevity of animals under reactive oxygen species stress and disease susceptibility due to global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paital, Biswaranjan; Panda, Sumana Kumari; Hati, Akshaya Kumar; Mohanty, Bobllina; Mohapatra, Manoj Kumar; Kanungo, Shyama; Chainy, Gagan Bihari Nityananda

    2016-01-01

    The world is projected to experience an approximate doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration in the next decades. Rise in atmospheric CO2 level as one of the most important reasons is expected to contribute to raise the mean global temperature 1.4 °C-5.8 °C by that time. A survey from 128 countries speculates that global warming is primarily due to increase in atmospheric CO2 level that is produced mainly by anthropogenic activities. Exposure of animals to high environmental temperatures is mostly accompanied by unwanted acceleration of certain biochemical pathways in their cells. One of such examples is augmentation in generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and subsequent increase in oxidation of lipids, proteins and nucleic acids by ROS. Increase in oxidation of biomolecules leads to a state called as oxidative stress (OS). Finally, the increase in OS condition induces abnormality in physiology of animals under elevated temperature. Exposure of animals to rise in habitat temperature is found to boost the metabolism of animals and a very strong and positive correlation exists between metabolism and levels of ROS and OS. Continuous induction of OS is negatively correlated with survivability and longevity and positively correlated with ageing in animals. Thus, it can be predicted that continuous exposure of animals to acute or gradual rise in habitat temperature due to global warming may induce OS, reduced survivability and longevity in animals in general and poikilotherms in particular. A positive correlation between metabolism and temperature in general and altered O2 consumption at elevated temperature in particular could also increase the risk of experiencing OS in homeotherms. Effects of global warming on longevity of animals through increased risk of protein misfolding and disease susceptibility due to OS as the cause or effects or both also cannot be ignored. Therefore, understanding the physiological impacts of global warming in relation to

  18. Impacts of climate extremes on gross primary production under global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, I N; Torn, M S; Riley, W J; Wehner, M F

    2014-01-01

    The impacts of historical droughts and heat-waves on ecosystems are often considered indicative of future global warming impacts, under the assumption that water stress sets in above a fixed high temperature threshold. Historical and future (RCP8.5) Earth system model (ESM) climate projections were analyzed in this study to illustrate changes in the temperatures for onset of water stress under global warming. The ESMs examined here predict sharp declines in gross primary production (GPP) at warm temperature extremes in historical climates, similar to the observed correlations between GPP and temperature during historical heat-waves and droughts. However, soil moisture increases at the warm end of the temperature range, and the temperature at which soil moisture declines with temperature shifts to a higher temperature. The temperature for onset of water stress thus increases under global warming and is associated with a shift in the temperature for maximum GPP to warmer temperatures. Despite the shift in this local temperature optimum, the impacts of warm extremes on GPP are approximately invariant when extremes are defined relative to the optimal temperature within each climate period. The GPP sensitivity to these relative temperature extremes therefore remains similar between future and present climates, suggesting that the heat- and drought-induced GPP reductions seen recently can be expected to be similar in the future, and may be underestimates of future impacts given model projections of increased frequency and persistence of heat-waves and droughts. The local temperature optimum can be understood as the temperature at which the combination of water stress and light limitations is minimized, and this concept gives insights into how GPP responds to climate extremes in both historical and future climate periods. Both cold (temperature and light-limited) and warm (water-limited) relative temperature extremes become more persistent in future climate projections

  19. Structural Changes of International Trade Flows under the Impact of Globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anca Dachin

    2006-08-01

    Full Text Available Structural changes of international trade flows indicate modifications in competitiveness of countries, in terms of production, technological upgrading and exports under the pressure of globalization. The paper aims to point out sources of competitive advantages especially in manufacturing exports of different groups of countries. The focus is on the shifts in the structure of manufacturing in the European Union and their effects on international rankings in export performances. An important issue refers to the opportunities given by the enlargement of the European Union and their impact on EU trade structures.

  20. Spatio-temporal variations of vegetation indicators in Eastern Siberia under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varlamova, Eugenia V.; Solovyev, Vladimir S.

    2017-11-01

    Study of spatio-temporal variations of NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) and phenological parameters of Eastern Siberia vegetation cover under global warming was carried out on AVHRR/NOAA data (1982-2014). Trend maps of NDVI and annual variations of phenological parameters and NDVI are analyzed. A method based on stable transition of air temperature through +5°C was used to estimate the beginning, end and the length of the growing season. Correlation between NDVI and phenological parameters, surface air temperature and precipitation are discussed.

  1. Expansion of plants with Crassulacean Acid Metabolism under global environment change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, K.; D'Odorico, P.; Collins, S. L.; Carr, D.

    2016-12-01

    The abundance of plants with Crassulacean Acid Metabolism (CAM) has increased in many drylands worldwide. This is hypothesized to occur because CAM plants store water, take up CO2 at night, exhibit photosynthetic plasticity, and have high water use efficiency. The increased dominance of CAM plants, however, also depends on their competitive relationship with other functional groups, an aspect of CAM plant sensitivity to global environmental change that has remained largely understudied. Here, we investigated the response of CAM plants and their competitive relationships with C3 and C4 plants under global environmental change. We focused on two pairs of CAM and non-CAM species, namely Cylindropuntia imbricata (a constitutive CAM species) and Bouteloua eriopoda (C4 grass), which co-occur in desert grasslands in northern Mexico, and invasive Mesembryanthemum crystallinum (a facultative CAM species) and Bromus mollis (a C3 invasive grass), which coexist in California's coastal grasslands. A set of growth chamber experiments under altered CO2 and water conditions show that C. imbricata outcompeted B. eriopoda under drought conditions, while in well-watered conditions B. eriopoda was a stronger competitor for soil water than C. imbricata. Under drought conditions a more positive response to CO2 enrichment by C. imbricata indirectly disfavored B. eriopoda, which suggests that interspecific competition can outweigh the favorable direct effect of CO2 enrichment on plant growth. A set of greenhouse experiments under water, N, and soil salinity manipulations showed that drought, N deposition, and/or increased soil salinity served as important drivers for success of M. crystallinum invasion, while B. mollis exerted strong competitive effects on M. crystallinum for light and soil nutrients in well-watered conditions. M. crystallinum switched from C3 photosynthesis to CAM photosynthesis as an adaptive strategy in response to moderate intensity of competition from B. mollis, in

  2. Globalization

    OpenAIRE

    Andru?cã Maria Carmen

    2013-01-01

    The field of globalization has highlighted an interdependence implied by a more harmonious understanding determined by the daily interaction between nations through the inducement of peace and the management of streamlining and the effectiveness of the global economy. For the functioning of the globalization, the developing countries that can be helped by the developed ones must be involved. The international community can contribute to the institution of the development environment of the gl...

  3. The poleward shift of storm tracks under global warming: A Lagrangian perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamarin, T.; Kaspi, Y.

    2017-10-01

    Comprehensive models of climate change projections have shown that the latitudinal band of extratropical storms will likely shift poleward under global warming. Here we study this poleward shift from a Lagrangian storm perspective, through simulations with an idealized general circulation model. By employing a feature tracking technique to identify the storms, we demonstrate that the poleward motion of individual cyclones increases with increasing global mean temperature. A potential vorticity tendency analysis of the cyclone composites highlights two leading mechanisms responsible for enhanced poleward motion: nonlinear horizontal advection and diabatic heating associated with latent heat release. Our results imply that for a 4 K rise in the global mean surface temperature, the mean poleward displacement of cyclones increases by about 0.85° of latitude, and this occurs in addition to a poleward shift of about 0.6° in their mean genesis latitude. Changes in cyclone tracks may have a significant impact on midlatitude climate, especially in localized storm tracks such as the Atlantic and Pacific storm tracks, which may exhibit a more poleward deflected shape.

  4. Effective Local-Global Upscaling of Fractured Reservoirs under Discrete Fractured Discretization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junchao Li

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The subsurface flow in fractured reservoirs is strongly affected by the distribution of fracture networks. Discrete fracture models, which represent all fractures individually by unstructured grid systems, are thus developed and act as a more accurate way for fractured reservoir simulation. However, it is usually not realistic to directly apply discrete fracture models to simulate field scale models for efficiency reasons. There is a need for upscaling techniques to coarsen the high resolution fracture descriptions to sizes that can be accommodated by reservoir simulators. In this paper, we extended the adaptive local-global upscaling technique to construct a transmissibility-based dual-porosity dual-permeability model from discrete fracture characterizations. An underlying unstructured fine-scale grid is firstly generated as a base grid. A global coarse-scale simulation is performed to provide boundary conditions for local regions and local upscaling procedures are carried out in every local region for transmissibility calculations. Iterations are performed until the consistency between the global and local properties is achieved. The procedure is applied to provide dual-porosity dual-permeability (DPDK parameters including coarse-scale matrix-matrix, fracture-fracture and matrix-fracture flux transmissibilities. The methodology is applied to several cases. The simulation results demonstrate the accuracy, efficiency and robustness of the proposed method.

  5. Democracy under siege: Democratic solidarity between global crisis and cosmopolitan hope

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brunkhorst Hauke

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available For almost half a century (between 1940 and 1990 the democratic and social state has solved the twofold problem of growth and social exclusion through social inclusion within the borders of the national state. This solution since the 1970s came under threat of multiple crises of the environment, secular stagnation, under-consumption, legitimization and constitutionalization. There might be a social solution of present crisis possible through massive redistribution plus decent basic income (on the level of tuition-costs plus green growth. However, after globalization of capital there are no longer national social alternatives available. Therefore, there is no alternative to transnational democratic state-formation. But are there actors relevant, strong and motivated enough to do that?

  6. Calculation of probability density functions for temperature and precipitation change under global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watterson, Ian G.

    2007-01-01

    Full text: he IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (Meehl ef al. 2007) presents multi-model means of the CMIP3 simulations as projections of the global climate change over the 21st century under several SRES emission scenarios. To assess the possible range of change for Australia based on the CMIP3 ensemble, we can follow Whetton etal. (2005) and use the 'pattern scaling' approach, which separates the uncertainty in the global mean warming from that in the local change per degree of warming. This study presents several ways of representing these two factors as probability density functions (PDFs). The beta distribution, a smooth, bounded, function allowing skewness, is found to provide a useful representation of the range of CMIP3 results. A weighting of models based on their skill in simulating seasonal means in the present climate over Australia is included. Dessai ef al. (2005) and others have used Monte-Carlo sampling to recombine such global warming and scaled change factors into values of net change. Here, we use a direct integration of the product across the joint probability space defined by the two PDFs. The result is a cumulative distribution function (CDF) for change, for each variable, location, and season. The median of this distribution provides a best estimate of change, while the 10th and 90th percentiles represent a likely range. The probability of exceeding a specified threshold can also be extracted from the CDF. The presentation focuses on changes in Australian temperature and precipitation at 2070 under the A1B scenario. However, the assumption of linearity behind pattern scaling allows results for different scenarios and times to be simply obtained. In the case of precipitation, which must remain non-negative, a simple modification of the calculations (based on decreases being exponential with warming) is used to avoid unrealistic results. These approaches are currently being used for the new CSIRO/ Bureau of Meteorology climate projections

  7. Modeling the global levels and distribution of polychlorinated biphenyls in air under a climate change scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamon, Lara; Von Waldow, Harald; Macleod, Matthew; Scheringer, Martin; Marcomini, Antonio; Hungerbühler, Konrad

    2009-08-01

    We used the multimedia chemical fate model BETR Global to evaluate changes in the global distribution of two polychlorinated biphenyls, PCB 28 and PCB 153, under the influence of climate change. This was achieved by defining two climate scenarios based on results from a general circulation model, one scenario representing the last twenty years of the 20th century (20CE scenario) and another representing the global climate under the assumption of strong future greenhouse gas emissions (A2 scenario). The two climate scenarios are defined by four groups of environmental parameters: (1) temperature in the planetary boundary layer and the free atmosphere, (2) wind speeds and directions in the atmosphere, (3) current velocities and directions in the surface mixed layer of the oceans, and (4) rate and geographical pattern of precipitation. As a fifth parameter in our scenarios, we considerthe effect of temperature on primary volatilization emissions of PCBs. Comparison of dynamic model results using environmental parameters from the 20CE scenario against historical long-term monitoring data of concentrations of PCB 28 and PCB 153 in air from 16 different sites shows satisfactory agreement between modeled and measured PCBs concentrations. The 20CE scenario and A2 scenario were compared using steady-state calculations and assuming the same source characteristics of PCBs. Temperature differences between the two scenarios is the dominant factor that determines the difference in PCB concentrations in air. The higher temperatures in the A2 scenario drive increased primary and secondary volatilization emissions of PCBs, and enhance transport from temperate regions to the Arctic. The largest relative increase in concentrations of both PCB congeners in air under the A2 scenario occurs in the high Arctic and the remote Pacific Ocean. Generally, higher wind speeds under the A2 scenario result in more efficient intercontinental transport of PCB 28 and PCB 153 compared to the 20CE

  8. Projected changes in prevailing winds for transatlantic migratory birds under global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    La Sorte, Frank A; Fink, Daniel

    2017-03-01

    A number of terrestrial bird species that breed in North America cross the Atlantic Ocean during autumn migration when travelling to their non-breeding grounds in the Caribbean or South America. When conducting oceanic crossings, migratory birds tend to associate with mild or supportive winds, whose speed and direction may change under global warming. The implications of these changes for transoceanic migratory bird populations have not been addressed. We used occurrence information from eBird (1950-2015) to estimate the geographical location of population centres at a daily temporal resolution across the annual cycle for 10 transatlantic migratory bird species. We used this information to estimate the location and timing of autumn migration within the transatlantic flyway. We estimated how prevailing winds are projected to change within the transatlantic flyway during this time using daily wind speed anomalies (1996-2005 and 2091-2100) from 29 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models implemented under CMIP5. Autumn transatlantic migrants have the potential to encounter strong westerly crosswinds early in their transatlantic journey at intermediate and especially high migration altitudes, strong headwinds at low and intermediate migration altitudes within the Caribbean that increase in strength as the season progresses, and weak tailwinds at intermediate and high migration altitudes east of the Caribbean. The CMIP5 simulations suggest that, during this century, the likelihood of autumn transatlantic migrants encountering strong westerly crosswinds will diminish. As global warming progresses, the need for species to compensate or drift under the influence of strong westerly crosswinds during the initial phase of their autumn transatlantic journey may be diminished. Existing strategies that promote headwind avoidance and tailwind assistance will likely remain valid. Thus, climate change may reduce time and energy requirements and the chance of mortality or

  9. Predictions of future ephemeral springtime waterbird stopover habitat availability under global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uden, Daniel R.; Allen, Craig R.; Bishop, Andrew A.; Grosse, Roger; Jorgensen, Christopher F.; LaGrange, Theodore G.; Stutheit, Randy G.; Vrtiska, Mark P.

    2015-01-01

    In the present period of rapid, worldwide change in climate and landuse (i.e., global change), successful biodiversity conservation warrants proactive management responses, especially for long-distance migratory species. However, the development and implementation of management strategies can be impeded by high levels of uncertainty and low levels of control over potentially impactful future events and their effects. Scenario planning and modeling are useful tools for expanding perspectives and informing decisions under these conditions. We coupled scenario planning and statistical modeling to explain and predict playa wetland inundation (i.e., presence/absence of water) and ponded area (i.e., extent of water) in the Rainwater Basin, an anthropogenically altered landscape that provides critical stopover habitat for migratory waterbirds. Inundation and ponded area models for total wetlands, those embedded in rowcrop fields, and those not embedded in rowcrop fields were trained and tested with wetland ponding data from 2004 and 2006–2009, and then used to make additional predictions under two alternative climate change scenarios for the year 2050, yielding a total of six predictive models and 18 prediction sets. Model performance ranged from moderate to good, with inundation models outperforming ponded area models, and models for non-rowcrop-embedded wetlands outperforming models for total wetlands and rowcrop-embedded wetlands. Model predictions indicate that if the temperature and precipitation changes assumed under our climate change scenarios occur, wetland stopover habitat availability in the Rainwater Basin could decrease in the future. The results of this and similar studies could be aggregated to increase knowledge about the potential spatial and temporal distributions of future stopover habitat along migration corridors, and to develop and prioritize multi-scale management actions aimed at mitigating the detrimental effects of global change on migratory

  10. On the role of ozone feedback in the ENSO amplitude response under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nowack, P. J.; Braesicke, P.; Abraham, N. L.; Pyle, J. A.

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific is of key importance to global climate and weather. However, climate models still disagree on the ENSO's response under climate change. Here we show that typical model representations of ozone can have a first-order impact on ENSO amplitude projections in climate sensitivity simulations (i.e. standard abrupt 4xCO2). We mainly explain this effect by the lapse rate adjustment of the tropical troposphere to ozone changes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) under 4xCO2. The ozone-induced lapse rate changes modify the Walker circulation response to the CO2 forcing and consequently tropical Pacific surface temperature gradients. Therefore, not including ozone feedbacks increases the number of extreme ENSO events in our model. In addition, we demonstrate that even if ozone changes in the tropical UTLS are included in the simulations, the neglect of the ozone response in the middle-upper stratosphere still leads to significantly larger ENSO amplitudes (compared to simulations run with a fully interactive atmospheric chemistry scheme). Climate modeling studies of the ENSO often neglect changes in ozone. Our results imply that this could affect the inter-model spread found in ENSO projections and, more generally, surface climate change simulations. We discuss the additional complexity in quantifying such ozone-related effects that arises from the apparent model dependency of chemistry-climate feedbacks and, possibly, their range of surface climate impacts. In conclusion, we highlight the need to understand better the coupling between ozone, the tropospheric circulation, and climate variability. Reference: Nowack PJ, Braesicke P, Abraham NL, and Pyle JA (2017), On the role of ozone feedback in the ENSO amplitude response under global warming, Geophys. Res. Lett. 44, 3858-3866, doi:10.1002/2016GL072418.

  11. How will the impact of El Nino and La Nina on Australia change under global warming?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Power, Scott; Morgan, Adam; Moise, Aurel; Grainger, Simon; Smith, Ian; Reeder, Michael

    2007-01-01

    Full text: The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a profound influence on Australia. How will this influence change under global warming? Will El Nino droughts become more frequent or more intense? Will La Nina events tend to produce more or less rainfall over Australia than they have in the past? Has ENSO already changed? Has ENSO's impact on Australia already changed? Will global warming be 'El Nino-like'? How well do current models simulate ENSO and how reliable are their projections for ENSO? Here we will provide answers to these questions drawing on the IPCC (2007) report and recent research conducted here in Australia. We will see that: ENSO and its impact on Australia varied substantially on decadal and longer time-scales over the past century; The frequency of El Nino events appeared to increase; The Walker Circulation, which is one of the most prominent and important atmospheric circulations in the world, is centred in the Pacific Ocean and is strongly modulated by ENSO. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) - which is used to track ENSO and the strength of the Walker Circulation -has trended down over the past century. The tropical Pacific - the engine room for ENSO - has warmed to unprecedented levels. The Walker Circulation weakens in some models in response to global warming. The relationship between Australian rainfall, temperature and the SOI has changed. The IPCC WG1 Report (2007) concluded that'... there is no consistent indication at this time of discernable changes in ENSO amplitude or frequency in the 21st century'. Even if ENSO variability in the tropical Pacific does not change, ENSO's impact on Australia might. Evidence supporting this hypothesis will be provided. Finally, we will discuss what this all means for Australia

  12. Calculation of probability density functions for temperature and precipitation change under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watterson, I. G.

    2008-06-01

    There remains uncertainty in the projected climate change over the 21st century, in part because of the range of responses to rising greenhouse gas concentrations in current global climate models (GCMs). The representation of potential changes in the form of a probability density function (PDF) is increasingly sought for applications. This article presents a method of estimating PDFs for projections based on the "pattern scaling" technique, which separates the uncertainty in the global mean warming from that in the standardized regional change. A mathematical framework for the problem is developed, which includes a joint probability distribution for the product of these two factors. Several simple approaches are considered for representing the factors by PDFs using GCM results, allowing model weighting. The four-parameter beta distribution is found to provide a smooth PDF that can match the mean and range of GCM results, allowing skewness when appropriate. A beta representation of the range in global warming consistent with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report is presented. The method is applied to changes in Australian temperature and precipitation, under the A1B scenario of concentrations, using results from 23 GCMs in the CMIP3 database. Statistical results, including percentiles and threshold exceedences, are compared for the case of southern Australian temperature change in summer. For the precipitation example, central Australian winter rainfall, the usual linear scaling assumption produces a net change PDF that extends to unphysically large decreases. This is avoided by assuming an exponential relationship between percentage decreases in rainfall and warming.

  13. Effects of the Bering Strait closure on AMOC and global climate under different background climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Aixue; Meehl, Gerald A.; Han, Weiqing; Otto-Bliestner, Bette; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Rosenbloom, Nan

    2015-03-01

    Previous studies have suggested that the status of the Bering Strait may have a significant influence on global climate variability on centennial, millennial, and even longer time scales. Here we use multiple versions of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model (CCSM, versions 2 and 3) to investigate the influence of the Bering Strait closure/opening on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and global mean climate under present-day, 15 thousand-year before present (kyr BP), and 112 kyr BP climate boundary conditions. Our results show that regardless of the version of the model used or the widely different background climates, the Bering Strait's closure produces a robust result of a strengthening of the AMOC, and an increase in the northward meridional heat transport in the Atlantic. As a consequence, the climate becomes warmer in the North Atlantic and the surrounding regions, but cooler in the North Pacific, leading to a seesaw-like climate change between these two basins. For the first time it is noted that the absence of the Bering Strait throughflow causes a slower motion of Arctic sea ice, a reduced upper ocean water exchange between the Arctic and North Atlantic, reduced sea ice export and less fresh water in the North Atlantic. These changes contribute positively to the increased upper ocean density there, thus strengthening the AMOC. Potentially these changes in the North Atlantic could have a significant effect on the ice sheets both upstream and downstream in ice age climate, and further influence global sea level changes.

  14. Enhanced water use efficiency in global terrestrial ecosystems under increasing aerosol loadings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lu, Xiaoliang; Chen, Min; Liu, Yaling; Miralles, Diego G.; Wang, Faming

    2017-05-01

    Aerosols play a crucial role in the climate system, affecting incoming radiation and cloud formation. Based on a modelling framework that couples ecosystem processes with the atmospheric transfer of radiation, we analyze the effect of aerosols on surface incoming radiation, gross primary productivity (GPP), water losses from ecosystems through evapotranspiration (ET) and ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE, defined as GPP/ET) for 2003–2010 and validate them at global FLUXNET sites. The total diffuse radiation increases under relatively low or intermediate aerosol loadings, but decreases under more polluted conditions. We find that aerosol-induced changes in GPP depend on leaf area index, aerosol loading and cloudiness. Specifically, low and moderate aerosol loadings cause increases in GPP for all plant types, while heavy aerosol loadings result in enhancement (decrease) in GPP for dense (sparse) vegetation. On the other hand, ET is mainly negatively affected by aerosol loadings due to the reduction in total incoming radiation. Finally, WUE shows a consistent rise in all plant types under increasing aerosol loadings. Overall, the simulated daily WUE compares well with observations at 43 eddy-covariance tower sites (R2=0.84 and RMSE=0.01gC (kg H2O)-1) with better performance at forest sites. In addition to the increasing portions of diffuse light, the rise in WUE is also favored by the reduction in radiation- and heat-stress caused by the aerosols, especially for wet and hot climates.

  15. Contribution of air conditioning adoption to future energy use under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Lucas W.; Gertler, Paul J.

    2015-01-01

    As household incomes rise around the world and global temperatures go up, the use of air conditioning is poised to increase dramatically. Air conditioning growth is expected to be particularly strong in middle-income countries, but direct empirical evidence is scarce. In this paper we use high-quality microdata from Mexico to describe the relationship between temperature, income, and air conditioning. We describe both how electricity consumption increases with temperature given current levels of air conditioning, and how climate and income drive air conditioning adoption decisions. We then combine these estimates with predicted end-of-century temperature changes to forecast future energy consumption. Under conservative assumptions about household income, our model predicts near-universal saturation of air conditioning in all warm areas within just a few decades. Temperature increases contribute to this surge in adoption, but income growth by itself explains most of the increase. What this will mean for electricity consumption and carbon dioxide emissions depends on the pace of technological change. Continued advances in energy efficiency or the development of new cooling technologies could reduce the energy consumption impacts. Similarly, growth in low-carbon electricity generation could mitigate the increases in carbon dioxide emissions. However, the paper illustrates the enormous potential impacts in this sector, highlighting the importance of future research on adaptation and underscoring the urgent need for global action on climate change. PMID:25918391

  16. A global map of suitability for coastal Vibrio cholerae under current and future climate conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escobar, Luis E; Ryan, Sadie J; Stewart-Ibarra, Anna M; Finkelstein, Julia L; King, Christine A; Qiao, Huijie; Polhemus, Mark E

    2015-09-01

    Vibrio cholerae is a globally distributed water-borne pathogen that causes severe diarrheal disease and mortality, with current outbreaks as part of the seventh pandemic. Further understanding of the role of environmental factors in potential pathogen distribution and corresponding V. cholerae disease transmission over time and space is urgently needed to target surveillance of cholera and other climate and water-sensitive diseases. We used an ecological niche model (ENM) to identify environmental variables associated with V. cholerae presence in marine environments, to project a global model of V. cholerae distribution in ocean waters under current and future climate scenarios. We generated an ENM using published reports of V. cholerae in seawater and freely available remotely sensed imagery. Models indicated that factors associated with V. cholerae presence included chlorophyll-a, pH, and sea surface temperature (SST), with chlorophyll-a demonstrating the greatest explanatory power from variables selected for model calibration. We identified specific geographic areas for potential V. cholerae distribution. Coastal Bangladesh, where cholera is endemic, was found to be environmentally similar to coastal areas in Latin America. In a conservative climate change scenario, we observed a predicted increase in areas with environmental conditions suitable for V. cholerae. Findings highlight the potential for vulnerability maps to inform cholera surveillance, early warning systems, and disease prevention and control. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Multi-Model Projections of River Flood Risk in Europe under Global Warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorenzo Alfieri

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Knowledge on the costs of natural disasters under climate change is key information for planning adaptation and mitigation strategies of future climate policies. Impact models for large scale flood risk assessment have made leaps forward in the past few years, thanks to the increased availability of high resolution climate projections and of information on local exposure and vulnerability to river floods. Yet, state-of-the-art flood impact models rely on a number of input data and techniques that can substantially influence their results. This work compares estimates of river flood risk in Europe from three recent case studies, assuming global warming scenarios of 1.5, 2, and 3 degrees Celsius from pre-industrial levels. The assessment is based on comparing ensemble projections of expected damage and population affected at country level. Differences and common points between the three cases are shown, to point out main sources of uncertainty, strengths, and limitations. In addition, the multi-model comparison helps identify regions with the largest agreement on specific changes in flood risk. Results show that global warming is linked to substantial increase in flood risk over most countries in Central and Western Europe at all warming levels. In Eastern Europe, the average change in flood risk is smaller and the multi-model agreement is poorer.

  18. Increasing water cycle extremes in California and in relation to ENSO cycle under global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, Jin-Ho; Wang, S-Y Simon; Gillies, Robert R; Kravitz, Ben; Hipps, Lawrence; Rasch, Philip J

    2015-10-21

    Since the winter of 2013-2014, California has experienced its most severe drought in recorded history, causing statewide water stress, severe economic loss and an extraordinary increase in wildfires. Identifying the effects of global warming on regional water cycle extremes, such as the ongoing drought in California, remains a challenge. Here we analyse large-ensemble and multi-model simulations that project the future of water cycle extremes in California as well as to understand those associations that pertain to changing climate oscillations under global warming. Both intense drought and excessive flooding are projected to increase by at least 50% towards the end of the twenty-first century; this projected increase in water cycle extremes is associated with a strengthened relation to El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO)--in particular, extreme El Niño and La Niña events that modulate California's climate not only through its warm and cold phases but also its precursor patterns.

  19. Contribution of air conditioning adoption to future energy use under global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Lucas W; Gertler, Paul J

    2015-05-12

    As household incomes rise around the world and global temperatures go up, the use of air conditioning is poised to increase dramatically. Air conditioning growth is expected to be particularly strong in middle-income countries, but direct empirical evidence is scarce. In this paper we use high-quality microdata from Mexico to describe the relationship between temperature, income, and air conditioning. We describe both how electricity consumption increases with temperature given current levels of air conditioning, and how climate and income drive air conditioning adoption decisions. We then combine these estimates with predicted end-of-century temperature changes to forecast future energy consumption. Under conservative assumptions about household income, our model predicts near-universal saturation of air conditioning in all warm areas within just a few decades. Temperature increases contribute to this surge in adoption, but income growth by itself explains most of the increase. What this will mean for electricity consumption and carbon dioxide emissions depends on the pace of technological change. Continued advances in energy efficiency or the development of new cooling technologies could reduce the energy consumption impacts. Similarly, growth in low-carbon electricity generation could mitigate the increases in carbon dioxide emissions. However, the paper illustrates the enormous potential impacts in this sector, highlighting the importance of future research on adaptation and underscoring the urgent need for global action on climate change.

  20. The Impact Of Regionalism On Regional Development Under The Conditions Of A Globalized Economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eva Cihelkova

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this article is to explain the difference between regionalism and regional development concepts that are often used interchangeably, to investigate the fundamental aspects of two phenomena: regionalism in the sense of “new regionalism” and in the sense of “regional development” at the background of the globalized economy; to check a hypothesis that these two phenomena may be linked together and to study the impact of regionalism on regional integration. The article deepens the concept of “regional development.” At the same time, peculiarities of the current stage of the world economy development under the conditions of globalization are considered. The paper is theoretical (verbal rather than statistical analysis of the nature, diversity and fundamental aspects of regionalism and regional development in general. The article deals with the impact of regionalism on the location of production, and the growth of competition and market expansion systematizes the main effects of regionalism on market expansion and the location of production.

  1. Designer policy for carbon and biodiversity co-benefits under global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bryan, Brett A.; Runting, Rebecca K.; Capon, Tim; Perring, Michael P.; Cunningham, Shaun C.; Kragt, Marit E.; Nolan, Martin; Law, Elizabeth A.; Renwick, Anna R.; Eber, Sue; Christian, Rochelle; Wilson, Kerrie A.

    2016-03-01

    Carbon payments can help mitigate both climate change and biodiversity decline through the reforestation of agricultural land. However, to achieve biodiversity co-benefits, carbon payments often require support from other policy mechanisms such as regulation, targeting, and complementary incentives. We evaluated 14 policy mechanisms for supplying carbon and biodiversity co-benefits through reforestation of carbon plantings (CP) and environmental plantings (EP) in Australia’s 85.3 Mha agricultural land under global change. The reference policy--uniform payments (bidders are paid the same price) with land-use competition (both CP and EP eligible for payments), targeting carbon--achieved significant carbon sequestration but negligible biodiversity co-benefits. Land-use regulation (only EP eligible) and two additional incentives complementing the reference policy (biodiversity premium, carbon levy) increased biodiversity co-benefits, but mostly inefficiently. Discriminatory payments (bidders are paid their bid price) with land-use competition were efficient, and with multifunctional targeting of both carbon and biodiversity co-benefits increased the biodiversity co-benefits almost 100-fold. Our findings were robust to uncertainty in global outlook, and to key agricultural productivity and land-use adoption assumptions. The results suggest clear policy directions, but careful mechanism design will be key to realising these efficiencies in practice. Choices remain for society about the amount of carbon and biodiversity co-benefits desired, and the price it is prepared to pay for them.

  2. Theoretical Foundations of the New Industrialization of the Mining Region under Globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kusurgasheva Ludmila

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This study is intended to establish theoretical foundations of the new industrialization of the mining region under the globalization. The urgency of the problem is due to a significant de-industrialization of many branches of the Russian economy as a result of the neoliberal macroeconomic paradigm in the years of radical market reforms. As a result, a number of Russian regions has formed the structure of industrial production, which is characteristic mainly for the countries of the raw materials periphery. The authors see the new industrialization (neo-industrialization as a strategic tool for solving the problem. The trend that has formed in the Russian regional policy to transfer the responsibility for the economy modernization to the regional level has attached the special importance to regional studies. Exhaustion of predominantly raw-materials export model of economic growth has put Kuzbass, the mining region in Western Siberia, in the most difficult situation due to its tight dependence on the state of the world market of energy resources. This article presents a theoretical justification of the need, feasibility and advisability of neo-industrialization for the mining region in the conditions of globalization.

  3. Increasing water cycle extremes in California and in relation to ENSO cycle under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, Jin-Ho; Wang, S-Y Simon; Gillies, Robert R.; Kravitz, Ben; Hipps, Lawrence; Rasch, Philip J.

    2015-01-01

    Since the winter of 2013–2014, California has experienced its most severe drought in recorded history, causing statewide water stress, severe economic loss and an extraordinary increase in wildfires. Identifying the effects of global warming on regional water cycle extremes, such as the ongoing drought in California, remains a challenge. Here we analyse large-ensemble and multi-model simulations that project the future of water cycle extremes in California as well as to understand those associations that pertain to changing climate oscillations under global warming. Both intense drought and excessive flooding are projected to increase by at least 50% towards the end of the twenty-first century; this projected increase in water cycle extremes is associated with a strengthened relation to El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—in particular, extreme El Niño and La Niña events that modulate California's climate not only through its warm and cold phases but also its precursor patterns. PMID:26487088

  4. Global MHD Simulations of the Earth's Bow Shock Shape and Motion Under Variable Solar Wind Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mejnertsen, L.; Eastwood, J. P.; Hietala, H.; Schwartz, S. J.; Chittenden, J. P.

    2018-01-01

    Empirical models of the Earth's bow shock are often used to place in situ measurements in context and to understand the global behavior of the foreshock/bow shock system. They are derived statistically from spacecraft bow shock crossings and typically treat the shock surface as a conic section parameterized according to a uniform solar wind ram pressure, although more complex models exist. Here a global magnetohydrodynamic simulation is used to analyze the variability of the Earth's bow shock under real solar wind conditions. The shape and location of the bow shock is found as a function of time, and this is used to calculate the shock velocity over the shock surface. The results are compared to existing empirical models. Good agreement is found in the variability of the subsolar shock location. However, empirical models fail to reproduce the two-dimensional shape of the shock in the simulation. This is because significant solar wind variability occurs on timescales less than the transit time of a single solar wind phase front over the curved shock surface. Empirical models must therefore be used with care when interpreting spacecraft data, especially when observations are made far from the Sun-Earth line. Further analysis reveals a bias to higher shock speeds when measured by virtual spacecraft. This is attributed to the fact that the spacecraft only observes the shock when it is in motion. This must be accounted for when studying bow shock motion and variability with spacecraft data.

  5. Global transcriptional responses of Acidithiobacillus ferrooxidans Wenelen under different sulfide minerals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latorre, Mauricio; Ehrenfeld, Nicole; Cortés, María Paz; Travisany, Dante; Budinich, Marko; Aravena, Andrés; González, Mauricio; Bobadilla-Fazzini, Roberto A; Parada, Pilar; Maass, Alejandro

    2016-01-01

    In order to provide new information about the adaptation of Acidithiobacillus ferrooxidans during the bioleaching process, the current analysis presents the first report of the global transcriptional response of the native copper mine strain Wenelen (DSM 16786) oxidized under different sulfide minerals. Microarrays were used to measure the response of At. ferrooxidans Wenelen to shifts from iron supplemented liquid cultures (reference state) to the addition of solid substrates enriched in pyrite or chalcopyrite. Genes encoding for energy metabolism showed a similar transcriptional profile for the two sulfide minerals. Interestingly, four operons related to sulfur metabolism were over-expressed during growth on a reduced sulfur source. Genes associated with metal tolerance (RND and ATPases type P) were up-regulated in the presence of pyrite or chalcopyrite. These results suggest that At. ferrooxidans Wenelen presents an efficient transcriptional system developed to respond to environmental conditions, namely the ability to withstand high copper concentrations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Can we predict the direction of marine primary production change under global warming?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taucher, J.; Oschlies, A.

    2011-01-01

    A global Earth System model is employed to investigate the role of direct temperature effects in the response of marine ecosystems to climate change. While model configurations with and without consideration of explicit temperature effects can reproduce observed current biogeochemical tracer distributions and estimated carbon export about equally well, carbon flow through the model ecosystem reveals strong temperature sensitivities. Depending on whether biological processes are assumed temperature sensitive or not, simulated marine net primary production (NPP) increases or decreases under projected climate change driven by a business-as-usual CO2 emission scenario for the 21st century. This suggests that indirect temperature effects such as changes in the supply of nutrients and light are not the only relevant factors to be considered when modeling the response of marine ecosystems to climate change. A better understanding of direct temperature effects on marine ecosystems is required before even the direction of change in NPP can be reliably predicted.

  7. Detection of change points in underlying earthquake rates, with application to global mega-earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Touati, Sarah; Naylor, Mark; Main, Ian

    2016-02-01

    The recent spate of mega-earthquakes since 2004 has led to speculation of an underlying change in the global `background' rate of large events. At a regional scale, detecting changes in background rate is also an important practical problem for operational forecasting and risk calculation, for example due to volcanic processes, seismicity induced by fluid injection or withdrawal, or due to redistribution of Coulomb stress after natural large events. Here we examine the general problem of detecting changes in background rate in earthquake catalogues with and without correlated events, for the first time using the Bayes factor as a discriminant for models of varying complexity. First we use synthetic Poisson (purely random) and Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) models (which also allow for earthquake triggering) to test the effectiveness of many standard methods of addressing this question. These fall into two classes: those that evaluate the relative likelihood of different models, for example using Information Criteria or the Bayes Factor; and those that evaluate the probability of the observations (including extreme events or clusters of events) under a single null hypothesis, for example by applying the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and `runs' tests, and a variety of Z-score tests. The results demonstrate that the effectiveness among these tests varies widely. Information Criteria worked at least as well as the more computationally expensive Bayes factor method, and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and runs tests proved to be the relatively ineffective in reliably detecting a change point. We then apply the methods tested to events at different thresholds above magnitude M ≥ 7 in the global earthquake catalogue since 1918, after first declustering the catalogue. This is most effectively done by removing likely correlated events using a much lower magnitude threshold (M ≥ 5), where triggering is much more obvious. We find no strong evidence that the background rate of large

  8. SOME ASPECTS OF THE CONSERVATION OF THE CULTURAL HERITAGE OF DAGESTAN REPUBLIC UNDER GLOBALIZATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. N. Nabieva

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim. Problems of preservation of cultural and natural heritage in the era of globalization, acquiring intensi-ty and penetration in various spheres of human activity in recent decades, are particularly relevant. Republic of Da-gestan is a multi-ethnic region located at the crossroads of world cultures and passed a difficult path of political, so-cio-economic and cultural development. The loss of the heritage can be attributed to one of social disasters, and in its consequences can be compared to the natural disasters on the planet. In this connection, the main aim is to develop proposals for the preservation and use of cultural and natural heritage of the Republic of Dagestan under globalization, a problem that sounds very relevant today. Methods. We used an analytical method to study the problem, based on the study of the scientific sources on heritage conservation in the context of globalization. In addition, we followed the methodology developed by the Russian Research Institute for Cultural and Natural Heritage. Results. In the article we make suggestions that will contribute to the conservation and utilization of cultural and natural heritage of the Republic of Dagestan in the context of globalization. The main task today is to develop the following: 1 long-term strategic policy document for justification of national policies in the field of protection and use of cultural and natural heritage; 2 draft law on measures of state support for the preservation of cultural heritage and heritage man-agement; 3 the priority list of the most endangered and valuable objects of cultural, historical and natural heritage. Conclusions. At the state level, a concept should be developed of preservation of the natural and historical envi-ronment of ethnic groups, ways of life and traditional forms of management, including the creation of socio-cultural programs aimed at improving the living conditions of the indigenous population, the study of its language

  9. Globalization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Plum, Maja

    Globalization is often referred to as external to education - a state of affair facing the modern curriculum with numerous challenges. In this paper it is examined as internal to curriculum; analysed as a problematization in a Foucaultian sense. That is, as a complex of attentions, worries, ways...... of reasoning, producing curricular variables. The analysis is made through an example of early childhood curriculum in Danish Pre-school, and the way the curricular variable of the pre-school child comes into being through globalization as a problematization, carried forth by the comparative practices of PISA...

  10. Globalization

    OpenAIRE

    F. Gerard Adams

    2008-01-01

    The rapid globalization of the world economy is causing fundamental changes in patterns of trade and finance. Some economists have argued that globalization has arrived and that the world is “flat†. While the geographic scope of markets has increased, the author argues that new patterns of trade and finance are a result of the discrepancies between “old†countries and “new†. As the differences are gradually wiped out, particularly if knowledge and technology spread worldwide, the t...

  11. Thermophilic Fungi to Dominate Aflatoxigenic/Mycotoxigenic Fungi on Food under Global Warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paterson, Robert Russell M; Lima, Nelson

    2017-02-17

    Certain filamentous fungi produce mycotoxins that contaminate food. Mycotoxin contamination of crops is highly influenced by environmental conditions and is already affected by global warming, where there is a succession of mycotoxigenic fungi towards those that have higher optimal growth temperatures. Aflatoxigenic fungi are at the highest limit of temperature although predicted increases in temperature are beyond that constraint. The present paper discusses what will succeed these fungi and represents the first such consideration. Aflatoxins are the most important mycotoxins and are common in tropical produce, much of which is exported to temperate regions. Hot countries may produce safer food under climate change because aflatoxigenic fungi will be inhibited. The same situation will occur in previously temperate regions where these fungi have recently appeared, although decades later. Existing thermotolerant and thermophilic fungi (TTF) will dominate, in contrast to the conventional mycotoxigenic fungi adapting or mutating, as it will be quicker. TTF produce a range of secondary metabolites, or potential mycotoxins and patulin which may become a new threat. In addition, Aspergillus fumigatus will appear more frequently, a serious human pathogen, because it is (a) thermotolerant and (b) present on crops: hence this is an even greater problem. An incubation temperature of 41 °C needs employing forthwith to detect TTF. Finally, TTF in crops requires study because of the potential for diseases in humans and animals under climate change.

  12. Global potential distribution of an invasive species, the yellow crazy ant (Anoplolepis gracilipes) under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Youhua

    2008-09-01

    Changes to the Earth's climate may affect the distribution of countless species. Understanding the potential distribution of known invasive species under an altered climate is vital to predicting impacts and developing management policy. The present study employs ecological niche modeling to construct the global potential distribution range of the yellow crazy ant (Anoplolepis gracilipes) using past, current and future climate scenarios. Three modeling algorithms, GARP, BioClim and Environmental Distance, were used in a comparative analysis. Output from the models suggest firstly that this insect originated from south Asia, expanded into Europe and then into Afrotropical regions, after which it formed its current distribution. Second, the invasive risk of A. gracilipes under future climatic change scenarios will become greater because of an extension of suitable environmental conditions in higher latitudes. Third, when compared to the GARP model, BioClim and Environmental Distance models were better at modeling a species' ancestral distribution. These findings are discussed in light of the predictive accuracy of these models. © 2008 ISZS, Blackwell Publishing and IOZ/CAS.

  13. A possible explanation for the divergent projection of ENSO amplitude change under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lin; Li, Tim; Yu, Yongqiang; Behera, Swadhin K.

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the greatest climate variability on interannual time scale, yet what controls ENSO amplitude changes under global warming (GW) is uncertain. Here we show that the fundamental factor that controls the divergent projections of ENSO amplitude change within 20 coupled general circulation models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-5 is the change of climatologic mean Pacific subtropical cell (STC), whose strength determines the meridional structure of ENSO perturbations and thus the anomalous thermocline response to the wind forcing. The change of the thermocline response is a key factor regulating the strength of Bjerknes thermocline and zonal advective feedbacks, which ultimately lead to the divergent changes in ENSO amplitude. Furthermore, by forcing an ocean general circulation mode with the change of zonal mean zonal wind stress estimated by a simple theoretical model, a weakening of the STC in future is obtained. Such a change implies that ENSO variability might strengthen under GW, which could have a profound socio-economic consequence.

  14. Thermophilic Fungi to Dominate Aflatoxigenic/Mycotoxigenic Fungi on Food under Global Warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Russell M. Paterson

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Certain filamentous fungi produce mycotoxins that contaminate food. Mycotoxin contamination of crops is highly influenced by environmental conditions and is already affected by global warming, where there is a succession of mycotoxigenic fungi towards those that have higher optimal growth temperatures. Aflatoxigenic fungi are at the highest limit of temperature although predicted increases in temperature are beyond that constraint. The present paper discusses what will succeed these fungi and represents the first such consideration. Aflatoxins are the most important mycotoxins and are common in tropical produce, much of which is exported to temperate regions. Hot countries may produce safer food under climate change because aflatoxigenic fungi will be inhibited. The same situation will occur in previously temperate regions where these fungi have recently appeared, although decades later. Existing thermotolerant and thermophilic fungi (TTF will dominate, in contrast to the conventional mycotoxigenic fungi adapting or mutating, as it will be quicker. TTF produce a range of secondary metabolites, or potential mycotoxins and patulin which may become a new threat. In addition, Aspergillus fumigatus will appear more frequently, a serious human pathogen, because it is (a thermotolerant and (b present on crops: hence this is an even greater problem. An incubation temperature of 41 °C needs employing forthwith to detect TTF. Finally, TTF in crops requires study because of the potential for diseases in humans and animals under climate change.

  15. Controls on the meridional extent of tropical precipitation and its contraction under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donohoe, A.

    2017-12-01

    A method for decomposing changes and variability in the spatial structure of tropical precipitation into shifting (meridional translation), contracting, and intensifying modes of variability is introduced. We demonstrate that the shifting mode of tropical precipitation explains very little (20%) more of the tropical precipitation changes and variability. Furthermore, the contraction of tropical precipitation is highly correlated (R2 > 0.95) with an intensification of the precipitation in both the observations and forced modeled simulations. These results suggest that the simultaneous contraction and intensification of tropical precipitation is the dominant mode of variability and changes under external forcing. We speculate that tropical surface temperature controls this concurrent variability. Indeed, models robustly predict that tropical precipitation increases and meridionally contracts in response to increased CO2 and is reduced and meridionally expanded under glacial forcing and boundary conditions. In contrast, the directionality of the tropical precipitation shift is both ambiguous and small in magnitude in response to increased CO2. Furthermore, the ratio of the contraction/expansion to intensification/reduction is consistent in the continuum of climate states from the glacial climate to a modern climate to a 4XCO2 climate suggesting that the intensification and contraction are linked together via a single mechanism. We examine two mechanisms responsible for the contraction of the precipitation under global warming : i. the reduction of the seasonal cycle of energy input to the atmosphere due to sea ice retreat that results in the tropical precipitation remaining closer to the equator during the solsticial seasons and; ii. the increased gross moist stability of the tropical atmosphere as the surface warms resulting in a weaker cross-equatorial Hadley circulation during the solsticial seasons.

  16. An empirical, hierarchical typology of tree species assemblages for assessing forest dynamics under global change scenarios.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer K Costanza

    Full Text Available The composition of tree species occurring in a forest is important and can be affected by global change drivers such as climate change. To inform assessment and projection of global change impacts at broad extents, we used hierarchical cluster analysis and over 120,000 recent forest inventory plots to empirically define forest tree assemblages across the U.S., and identified the indicator and dominant species associated with each. Cluster typologies in two levels of a hierarchy of forest assemblages, with 29 and 147 groups respectively, were supported by diagnostic criteria. Groups in these two levels of the hierarchy were labeled based on the top indicator species in each, and ranged widely in size. For example, in the 29-cluster typology, the sugar maple-red maple assemblage contained the largest number of plots (30,068, while the butternut-sweet birch and sourwood-scarlet oak assemblages were both smallest (6 plots each. We provide a case-study demonstration of the utility of the typology for informing forest climate change impact assessment. For five assemblages in the 29-cluster typology, we used existing projections of changes in importance value (IV for the dominant species under one low and one high climate change scenario to assess impacts to the assemblages. Results ranged widely for each scenario by the end of the century, with each showing an average decrease in IV for dominant species in some assemblages, including the balsam fir-quaking aspen assemblage, and an average increase for others, like the green ash-American elm assemblage. Future work should assess adaptive capacity of these forest assemblages and investigate local population- and community-level dynamics in places where dominant species may be impacted. This typology will be ideal for monitoring, assessing, and projecting changes to forest communities within the emerging framework of macrosystems ecology, which emphasizes hierarchies and broad extents.

  17. Future habitat suitability for coral reef ecosystems under global warming and ocean acidification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Couce, Elena; Ridgwell, Andy; Hendy, Erica J

    2013-12-01

    Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations are placing spatially divergent stresses on the world's tropical coral reefs through increasing ocean surface temperatures and ocean acidification. We show how these two stressors combine to alter the global habitat suitability for shallow coral reef ecosystems, using statistical Bioclimatic Envelope Models rather than basing projections on any a priori assumptions of physiological tolerances or fixed thresholds. We apply two different modeling approaches (Maximum Entropy and Boosted Regression Trees) with two levels of complexity (one a simplified and reduced environmental variable version of the other). Our models project a marked temperature-driven decline in habitat suitability for many of the most significant and bio-diverse tropical coral regions, particularly in the central Indo-Pacific. This is accompanied by a temperature-driven poleward range expansion of favorable conditions accelerating up to 40-70 km per decade by 2070. We find that ocean acidification is less influential for determining future habitat suitability than warming, and its deleterious effects are centered evenly in both hemispheres between 5° and 20° latitude. Contrary to expectations, the combined impact of ocean surface temperature rise and acidification leads to little, if any, degradation in future habitat suitability across much of the Atlantic and areas currently considered 'marginal' for tropical corals, such as the eastern Equatorial Pacific. These results are consistent with fossil evidence of range expansions during past warm periods. In addition, the simplified models are particularly sensitive to short-term temperature variations and their projections correlate well with reported locations of bleaching events. Our approach offers new insights into the relative impact of two global environmental pressures associated with rising atmospheric CO2 on potential future habitats, but greater understanding of past and current controls on coral

  18. Sustainable Land Use in Mountain Regions Under Global Change: Synthesis Across Scales and Disciplines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Huber

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Mountain regions provide essential ecosystem goods and services (EGS for both mountain dwellers and people living outside these areas. Global change endangers the capacity of mountain ecosystems to provide key services. The Mountland project focused on three case study regions in the Swiss Alps and aimed to propose land-use practices and alternative policy solutions to ensure the provision of key EGS under climate and land-use changes. We summarized and synthesized the results of the project and provide insights into the ecological, socioeconomic, and political processes relevant for analyzing global change impacts on a European mountain region. In Mountland, an integrative approach was applied, combining methods from economics and the political and natural sciences to analyze ecosystem functioning from a holistic human-environment system perspective. In general, surveys, experiments, and model results revealed that climate and socioeconomic changes are likely to increase the vulnerability of the EGS analyzed. We regard the following key characteristics of coupled human-environment systems as central to our case study areas in mountain regions: thresholds, heterogeneity, trade-offs, and feedback. Our results suggest that the institutional framework should be strengthened in a way that better addresses these characteristics, allowing for (1 more integrative approaches, (2 a more network-oriented management and steering of political processes that integrate local stakeholders, and (3 enhanced capacity building to decrease the identified vulnerability as central elements in the policy process. Further, to maintain and support the future provision of EGS in mountain regions, policy making should also focus on project-oriented, cross-sectoral policies and spatial planning as a coordination instrument for land use in general.

  19. Assessment of global morphological and topological changes in trabecular structure under the bone resorption process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sidorenko, Irina N.; Bauer, Jan; Monetti, Roberto; Baum, Thomas; Rummeny, Ernst J.; Eckstein, Felix; Matsuura, Maiko; Lochmueller, Eva-Maria; Zysset, Philippe K.; Raeth, Christoph W.

    2012-03-01

    Osteoporosis is a frequent skeletal disease characterised both by loss of bone mineral mass and deterioration of cancellous bone micro-architecture. It can be caused by mechanical disuse, estrogen deficiency or natural age-related resorption process. Numerical analysis of high-resolution images of the trabecular network is recognised as a powerful tool for assessment of structural characteristics. Using μCT images of 73 thoracic and 78 lumbar human vertebral specimens in vitro with isotropic resolution of 26μm we simulate bone atrophy as random resorption of bone surface voxels. Global morphological and topological characteristics provided by four Minkowski Functionals (MF) are calculated for two numerical resorption models with and without conservation of global topological connectivity of the trabecular network, which simulates different types of bone loss in osteoporosis, as it has been described in males and females. Diagnostic performance of morphological and topological characteristics as a function of relative bone loss is evaluated by a correlation analysis with respect to experimentally measured Maximum Compressive Strength (MCS). In both resorption models the second MF, which coincides with bone surface fraction BS/TV, demonstrates almost constant value of Pearson's correlation coefficient with respect to the relative bone loss ▵BV/TV. This morphological characteristic does not vary considerably under age-related random resorption and can be used for predicting bone strength in the elderly. The third and fourth MF demonstrate an increasing correlation coefficients with MCS after applying random bone surface thinning without preserving topological connectivity, what can be used for improvement of evaluation of the current state of the structure.

  20. Future habitat suitability for coral reef ecosystems under global warming and ocean acidification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Couce, Elena; Ridgwell, Andy; Hendy, Erica J

    2013-01-01

    Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations are placing spatially divergent stresses on the world's tropical coral reefs through increasing ocean surface temperatures and ocean acidification. We show how these two stressors combine to alter the global habitat suitability for shallow coral reef ecosystems, using statistical Bioclimatic Envelope Models rather than basing projections on any a priori assumptions of physiological tolerances or fixed thresholds. We apply two different modeling approaches (Maximum Entropy and Boosted Regression Trees) with two levels of complexity (one a simplified and reduced environmental variable version of the other). Our models project a marked temperature-driven decline in habitat suitability for many of the most significant and bio-diverse tropical coral regions, particularly in the central Indo-Pacific. This is accompanied by a temperature-driven poleward range expansion of favorable conditions accelerating up to 40–70 km per decade by 2070. We find that ocean acidification is less influential for determining future habitat suitability than warming, and its deleterious effects are centered evenly in both hemispheres between 5° and 20° latitude. Contrary to expectations, the combined impact of ocean surface temperature rise and acidification leads to little, if any, degradation in future habitat suitability across much of the Atlantic and areas currently considered ‘marginal’ for tropical corals, such as the eastern Equatorial Pacific. These results are consistent with fossil evidence of range expansions during past warm periods. In addition, the simplified models are particularly sensitive to short-term temperature variations and their projections correlate well with reported locations of bleaching events. Our approach offers new insights into the relative impact of two global environmental pressures associated with rising atmospheric CO2 on potential future habitats, but greater understanding of past and current controls on

  1. Why Do We Expect Glacier Melting to Increase Under Global Warming?

    OpenAIRE

    Braithwaite, Roger J.

    2011-01-01

    Media stories about global warming almost always mention “melting glaciers” and their effects upon global sealevel. The reader might therefore ask why the title of this chapter includes a question mark. It may seem blindingly obvious that global warming will cause a rise in global sealevel with a substantial contribution from melting glaciers, but the reasons are less obvious despite the copious literature. For example, the IPCC assessment reports 1991, 1996, 2001 and 2007 all include many re...

  2. Species as Stressors: Heterospecific Interactions and the Cellular Stress Response under Global Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunderson, Alex R; King, Emily E; Boyer, Kirsten; Tsukimura, Brian; Stillman, Jonathon H

    2017-07-01

    Anthropogenic global change is predicted to increase the physiological stress of organisms through changes in abiotic conditions such as temperature, pH, and pollution. However, organisms can also experience physiological stress through interactions with other species, especially parasites, predators, and competitors. The stress of species interactions could be an important driver of species' responses to global change as the composition of biological communities change through factors such as distributional and phenological shifts. Interactions between biotic and abiotic stressors could also induce non-linear physiological stress responses under global change. One of the primary means by which organisms deal with physiological stress is through the cellular stress response (CSR), which is broadly the upregulation of a conserved set of genes that facilitate the removal and repair of damaged macromolecules. Here, we present data on behavioral interactions and CSR gene expression for two competing species of intertidal zone porcelain crab (Petrolisthes cinctipes and Petrolisthes manimaculis). We found that P. cinctipes and P. manimaculis engage in more agonistic behaviors when interacting with heterospecifics than conspecifics; however, we found no evidence that heterospecific interactions induced a CSR in these species. In addition to our new data, we review the literature with respect to CSR induction via species interactions, focusing on predator-prey systems and heterospecific competition. We find extensive evidence for predators to induce cellular stress and aspects of the CSR in prey, even in the absence of direct physical contact between species. Effects of heterospecific competition on the CSR have been studied far less, but we do find evidence that agonistic interactions with heterospecifics can induce components of the CSR. Across all published studies, there is clear evidence that species interactions can lead to cellular stress and induction of the CSR

  3. The global impact of ozone on agricultural crop yields under current and future air quality legislation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dingenen, van R.; Dentener, F.J.; Raes, F.; Krol, M.C.; Emberson, L.; Cofala, J.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we evaluate the global impact of surface ozone on four types of agricultural crop. The study is based on modelled global hourly ozone fields for the year 2000 and 2030, using the global 1°×1° 2-way nested atmospheric chemical transport model (TM5). Projections for the year 2030 are

  4. Globalization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Plum, Maja

    Globalization is often referred to as external to education - a state of affair facing the modern curriculum with numerous challenges. In this paper it is examined as internal to curriculum; analysed as a problematization in a Foucaultian sense. That is, as a complex of attentions, worries, ways...... of reasoning, producing curricular variables. The analysis is made through an example of early childhood curriculum in Danish Pre-school, and the way the curricular variable of the pre-school child comes into being through globalization as a problematization, carried forth by the comparative practices of PISA....... It thus explores the systems of reason that educational comparative practices carry through time; focusing on the way configurations are reproduced and transformed, forming the pre-school child as a central curricular variable....

  5. A New Technique for Tracking the Global Maximum Power Point of PV Arrays Operating Under Partial-Shading Conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koutroulis, Eftichios; Blaabjerg, Frede

    2012-01-01

    The power-voltage characteristic of photovoltaic (PV) arrays operating under partial-shading conditions exhibits multiple local maximum power points (MPPs). In this paper, a new method to track the global MPP is presented, which is based on controlling a dc/dc converter connected at the PV array...... output, such that it behaves as a constant input-power load. The proposed method has the advantage that it can be applied in either stand-alone or grid-connected PV systems comprising PV arrays with unknown electrical characteristics and does not require knowledge about the PV modules configuration...... within the PV array. The experimental results verify that the proposed global MPP method guarantees convergence to the global MPP under any partial-shading conditions. Compared with past-proposed methods, the global MPP tracking process is accomplished after far fewer PV array power perturbation steps....

  6. The Human Thirst for Water Under Global Change: What and where are the Future Risks?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlosser, C. A.; Fant, C.; Gao, X.; Strzepek, K.; Reilly, J. M.

    2014-12-01

    The future of water availability and security is of paramount importance. A climacteric challenge toward the future sustainability of this precious resource is to identify where and when water may become substantially limited in the coming decades and what are the key drivers. The sustainability of water resources are affected by many factors that include: population, wealth, energy, land use, as well as climate. Yet, prediction systems are challenged by uncertainties in models and observational support as well as the practical and theoretical limits-to-prediction of the Earth's systems. This limits any one forecast of a potential future as actionable information - and the scientific community has moved toward risk-based assessments to provide a likelihood of outcomes - to the fullest extent possible. We present a synopsis of recently published and ongoing analyses from experiments with the MIT Integrated System Model (IGSM) linked to a Water Resource System (WRS). These experiments address the future of water stress in a global context as well as with regional lenses over the United States and a large portion of Southern and Eastern Asia. By 2050, global economic growth and population change can lead to an additional 1.8 billion people living under at least moderate water stress, with 80% located in developing countries. Combined, socioeconomic growth and uncertain climate change lead to a 1.0-1.3 billion increase of the world's 2050 projected population living with overly exploited water conditions—where total potential water requirements will consistently exceed surface water supply. Using a large ensemble of scenarios that are consistent across economics, emissions, climate, population, etc., we develop risk portfolios of water stress over a large portion of Asia (Figure 1) and isolate the effects of socioeconomic growth (population and wealth) and climate change. We find the number of people under water stress more than doubles from about 800 million to 1

  7. Investigation of China’s national public relations strategy under globalization : the hotspots around the national media

    OpenAIRE

    雷, 紫雯

    2014-01-01

    This study investigates on China’s national public relations strategy under the globalization by analyzing the national media. In recent years, in order to improve the global public opinion environment, and to improve its national public relations capabilities that match its economic power status, China has actively strengthened its national public relations strategies, including making the national “media go out”, and building world-class media. By researching on the localization of Chinese ...

  8. Global assessment of water policy vulnerability under uncertainty in water scarcity projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greve, Peter; Kahil, Taher; Satoh, Yusuke; Burek, Peter; Fischer, Günther; Tramberend, Sylvia; Byers, Edward; Flörke, Martina; Eisner, Stephanie; Hanasaki, Naota; Langan, Simon; Wada, Yoshihide

    2017-04-01

    Water scarcity is a critical environmental issue worldwide, which has been driven by the significant increase in water extractions during the last century. In the coming decades, climate change is projected to further exacerbate water scarcity conditions in many regions around the world. At present, one important question for policy debate is the identification of water policy interventions that could address the mounting water scarcity problems. Main interventions include investing in water storage infrastructures, water transfer canals, efficient irrigation systems, and desalination plants, among many others. This type of interventions involve long-term planning, long-lived investments and some irreversibility in choices which can shape development of countries for decades. Making decisions on these water infrastructures requires anticipating the long term environmental conditions, needs and constraints under which they will function. This brings large uncertainty in the decision-making process, for instance from demographic or economic projections. But today, climate change is bringing another layer of uncertainty that make decisions even more complex. In this study, we assess in a probabilistic approach the uncertainty in global water scarcity projections following different socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and climate scenarios (RCPs) within the first half of the 21st century. By utilizing an ensemble of 45 future water scarcity projections based on (i) three state-of-the-art global hydrological models (PCR-GLOBWB, H08, and WaterGAP), (ii) five climate models, and (iii) three water scenarios, we have assessed changes in water scarcity and the associated uncertainty distribution worldwide. The water scenarios used here are developed by IIASA's Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) Initiative. The main objective of this study is to improve the contribution of hydro-climatic information to effective policymaking by identifying spatial and temporal policy

  9. Prospects of Russian Agriculture development under global climate and technological changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valentini, Riccardo; Vasenev, Ivan

    2015-04-01

    crop yields (about 20% in a decade, IPCC 2014), some regions in the world, particularly boreal ones, will benefit from temperature warming due to an increasing of growing season length and mild climate conditions. Several crops not usually suited for growing in northern latitude region will find here favorable conditions and potentially new economic opportunities will rise. Under new climate scenarios we discuss the potential for Russia to expand its agro-food sector and becoming a new important player of future global food supply. We analyze regional climate scenarios at high spatial resolution (8km) and project in the current century the new distribution of agro-ecological zones with the implication of new crops expansion. We also discuss limitation of water supply which may derive from increased evapotranspiration and water demands for irrigation. A final discussion is about the technological challenges and transformation needed in the Russian agricultural sector to take this opportunity. The question is about available technologies, barriers to implement innovation, financial instruments to prevent climate risks and moreover the required agriculture transformation to prevent environmental impacts of agriculture intensification.

  10. Uncertainty of Methane Fluxes in a Northern Peatland under Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    MA, S.; Jiang, J.; Huang, Y.; Luo, Y.

    2016-12-01

    Large uncertainty exists in predicting responses of methane fluxes to future climate change. How the uncertainty is related to methane production, oxidation, diffusion, ebullition and plant mediated transportation is still poorly understood, despite of the fact that these processes related to methane emission have been theoretically well represented. At the same time, in methane models many of the parameters are given to an empirical value according to measurements or models decades ago. It is unrealistic to testify all the parameters included in methane modules by actual in situ measurements due to the fact of high temporal and spatial variation. However it would be convincible and feasible to measure in field if models could offer better sampling strategy by telling which parameter is more important for estimation of methane emission, and project a constrained value for key parameters in each process. These feedbacks from field measurements could in turn testify the model accuracy for methane emission projection, as well as the optimization of model structures. We incorporated methane module into an existing process-based Terrestrial ECOsystem model (TECO), to simulate methane emission in a boreal peatland forest, northern Minnesota (Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Climatic and Environmental Change Experiment, SPRUCE). We performed sensitivity test and picked key parameters from the five processes for data assimilation using the Bayesian probability inversion and a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique. We were able to constrain key parameters related to the five processes in the TECO-SPRUCE Methane model. The constrained model simulated daily methane emission fitted quite well with the data from field measurements. The improvement of more realistic and site-specific parameter values allow for reasonable projections of methane emission under different global changing scenarios, warming and elevated CO2, for instance, given the fact that methane emission

  11. Simulating plant invasion dynamics in mountain ecosystems under global change scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carboni, Marta; Guéguen, Maya; Barros, Ceres; Georges, Damien; Boulangeat, Isabelle; Douzet, Rolland; Dullinger, Stefan; Klonner, Guenther; van Kleunen, Mark; Essl, Franz; Bossdorf, Oliver; Haeuser, Emily; Talluto, Matthew V; Moser, Dietmar; Block, Svenja; Conti, Luisa; Dullinger, Iwona; Münkemüller, Tamara; Thuiller, Wilfried

    2018-01-01

    Across the globe, invasive alien species cause severe environmental changes, altering species composition and ecosystem functions. So far, mountain areas have mostly been spared from large-scale invasions. However, climate change, land-use abandonment, the development of tourism and the increasing ornamental trade will weaken the barriers to invasions in these systems. Understanding how alien species will react and how native communities will influence their success is thus of prime importance in a management perspective. Here, we used a spatially and temporally explicit simulation model to forecast invasion risks in a protected mountain area in the French Alps under future conditions. We combined scenarios of climate change, land-use abandonment and tourism-linked increases in propagule pressure to test if the spread of alien species in the region will increase in the future. We modelled already naturalized alien species and new ornamental plants, accounting for interactions among global change components, and also competition with the native vegetation. Our results show that propagule pressure and climate change will interact to increase overall species richness of both naturalized aliens and new ornamentals, as well as their upper elevational limits and regional range-sizes. Under climate change, woody aliens are predicted to more than double in range-size and herbaceous species to occupy up to 20% of the park area. In contrast, land-use abandonment will open new invasion opportunities for woody aliens, but decrease invasion probability for naturalized and ornamental alien herbs as a consequence of colonization by native trees. This emphasizes the importance of interactions with the native vegetation either for facilitating or potentially for curbing invasions. Overall, our work highlights an additional and previously underestimated threat for the fragile mountain flora of the Alps already facing climate changes, land-use transformations and overexploitation by

  12. A Global Synthesis of Managing Groundwater Dependent Ecosystems Under Sustainable Groundwater Policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohde, Melissa M; Froend, Ray; Howard, Jeanette

    2017-05-01

    Groundwater is a vital water supply worldwide for people and nature. However, species and ecosystems that depend on groundwater for some or all of their water needs, known as groundwater dependent ecosystems (GDEs), are increasingly becoming threatened worldwide due to growing human water demands. Over the past two decades, the protection and management of GDEs have been incorporated into several water management policy initiatives worldwide including jurisdictions within Australia, the European Union, South Africa, and the United States. Among these, Australia has implemented the most comprehensive framework to manage and protect GDEs through its water policy initiatives. Using a science-based approach, Australia has made good progress at reducing uncertainty when selecting management thresholds for GDEs in their water management plans. This has been achieved by incorporating appropriate metrics for GDEs into water monitoring programs so that information gathered over time can inform management decisions. This adaptive management approach is also accompanied by the application of the "Precautionary Principle" in cases where insufficient information on GDEs exist. Additionally, the integration of risk assessment into Australia's approach has enabled water managers to prioritize the most valuable and vulnerable ecologic assets necessary to manage GDEs under Australia's national sustainable water management legislation. The purpose of this paper is to: (1) compare existing global policy initiatives for the protection and management of GDEs; (2) synthesize Australia's adaptive management approach of GDEs in their state water plans; and (3) highlight opportunities and challenges of applying Australia's approach for managing GDEs under other water management policies worldwide. © 2017 The Authors. Groundwater published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of National Ground Water Association.

  13. Accuracy of Kinematic Positioning Using Global Satellite Navigation Systems under Forest Canopies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harri Kaartinen

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available A harvester enables detailed roundwood data to be collected during harvesting operations by means of the measurement apparatus integrated into its felling head. These data can be used to improve the efficiency of wood procurement and also replace some of the field measurements, and thus provide both less costly and more detailed ground truth for remote sensing based forest inventories. However, the positional accuracy of harvester-collected tree data is not sufficient currently to match the accuracy per individual trees achieved with remote sensing data. The aim in the present study was to test the accuracy of various instruments utilizing global satellite navigation systems (GNSS in motion under forest canopies of varying densities to enable us to get an understanding of the current state-of-the-art in GNSS-based positioning under forest canopies. Tests were conducted using several different combinations of GNSS and inertial measurement unit (IMU mounted on an all-terrain vehicle (ATV “simulating” a moving harvester. The positions of 224 trees along the driving route were measured using a total-station and real-time kinematic GPS. These trees were used as reference items. The position of the ATV was obtained using GNSS and IMU with an accuracy of 0.7 m (root mean squared error (RMSE for 2D positions. For the single-frequency GNSS receivers, the RMSE of real-time 2D GNSS positions was 4.2–9.3 m. Based on these results, it seems that the accuracy of novel single-frequency GNSS devices is not so dependent on forest conditions, whereas the performance of the tested geodetic dual-frequency receiver is very sensitive to the visibility of the satellites. When post-processing can be applied, especially when combined with IMU data, the improvement in the accuracy of the dual-frequency receiver was significant.

  14. Increases in the annual range of soil water storage at northern middle and high latitudes under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Wen-Ying; Lan, Chia-Wei; Lo, Min-Hui; Reager, John T.; Famiglietti, James S.

    2015-05-01

    Soil water storage is a fundamental signal in the land hydrological cycle and changes in soil moisture can affect regional climate. In this study, we used simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archives to investigate changes in the annual range of soil water storage under global warming at northern middle and high latitudes. Results show that future warming could lead to significant declines in snowfall, and a corresponding lack of snowmelt water recharge to the soil, which makes soil water less available during spring and summer. Conversely, more precipitation as rainfall results in higher recharge to soil water during its accumulating season. Thus, the wettest month of soil water gets wetter, and the driest month gets drier, resulting in an increase of the annual range and suggesting that stronger heterogeneity in global water distribution (changing extremes) could occur under global warming; this has implications for water management and water security under a changing climate.

  15. GISELA - GIS-based evaluation of land use and agriculture market analysis under global warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mori, Shunsuke [Department of Industrial Administration, Faculty of Science and Technology, Tokyo University of Science, Yamasaki 2641, Noda, Chiba 278-8510 (Japan); Kato, Masahiro [Accenture Co., 1-11-44 Akasaka Minato-ku, Tokyo 107-8672 (Japan); Ido, Takahumi [Mizuho Information and Research Institute, Kandanishikicho 2-3, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 101-8443 (Japan)

    2010-01-15

    One of the important future issues is how agriculture production can meet the future demand increase due to the population and the income growth. Global warming would give both positive and negative impacts on them. Agriculture is often expected to supply biofuels to meet the growing transportation energy demand and the warming control policy. GISELA - GIS-based evaluation for land use and agriculture production model - is developed to evaluate the current and the potential cropland for rice, wheat, maize and soy-beans production under climate changes. We also assess the food and the feed demand based on the historical regional statistics for world into 18 regions. Finally, we assess the future food market integrating the above supply and demand conditions developing a dynamic optimization model, GISELA. Current GISELA findings are as follows: (1) potential cropland in south America will be extensively cultivated, (2) market price of wheat and soy will gradually go up while that of maize is almost stable in medium yield case, and (3) in the low-yield case, all crop prices hike rapidly in the mid of this century. (author)

  16. On the role of ozone feedback in the ENSO amplitude response under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nowack, Peer J.; Braesicke, Peter; Luke Abraham, N.; Pyle, John A.

    2017-04-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean is of key importance to global climate and weather. However, state-of-the-art climate models still disagree on the ENSO's response under climate change. The potential role of atmospheric ozone changes in this context has not been explored before. Here we show that differences between typical model representations of ozone can have a first-order impact on ENSO amplitude projections in climate sensitivity simulations. The vertical temperature gradient of the tropical middle-to-upper troposphere adjusts to ozone changes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, modifying the Walker circulation and consequently tropical Pacific surface temperature gradients. We show that neglecting ozone changes thus results in a significant increase in the number of extreme ENSO events in our model. Climate modeling studies of the ENSO often neglect changes in ozone. We therefore highlight the need to understand better the coupling between ozone, the tropospheric circulation, and climate variability.

  17. Trait acclimation mitigates mortality risks of tropical canopy trees under global warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank eSterck

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available There is a heated debate about the effect of global change on tropical forests. Many scientists predict large-scale tree mortality while others point to mitigating roles of CO2 fertilization and – the notoriously unknown – physiological trait acclimation of trees. In this opinion article we provided a first quantification of the potential of trait acclimation to mitigate the negative effects of warming on tropical canopy tree growth and survival. We applied a physiological tree growth model that incorporates trait acclimation through an optimization approach. Our model estimated the maximum effect of acclimation when trees optimize traits that are strongly plastic on a week to annual time scale (leaf photosynthetic capacity, total leaf area, stem sapwood area to maximize carbon gain. We simulated tree carbon gain for temperatures (25-35ºC and ambient CO2 concentrations (390-800 ppm predicted for the 21st century. Full trait acclimation increased simulated carbon gain by up to 10-20% and the maximum tolerated temperature by up to 2ºC, thus reducing risks of tree death under predicted warming. Functional trait acclimation may thus increase the resilience of tropical trees to warming, but cannot prevent tree death during extremely hot and dry years at current CO2 levels. We call for incorporating trait acclimation in field and experimental studies of plant functional traits, and in models that predict responses of tropical forests to climate change.

  18. Trait Acclimation Mitigates Mortality Risks of Tropical Canopy Trees under Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sterck, Frank; Anten, Niels P. R.; Schieving, Feike; Zuidema, Pieter A.

    2016-01-01

    There is a heated debate about the effect of global change on tropical forests. Many scientists predict large-scale tree mortality while others point to mitigating roles of CO2 fertilization and – the notoriously unknown – physiological trait acclimation of trees. In this opinion article we provided a first quantification of the potential of trait acclimation to mitigate the negative effects of warming on tropical canopy tree growth and survival. We applied a physiological tree growth model that incorporates trait acclimation through an optimization approach. Our model estimated the maximum effect of acclimation when trees optimize traits that are strongly plastic on a week to annual time scale (leaf photosynthetic capacity, total leaf area, stem sapwood area) to maximize carbon gain. We simulated tree carbon gain for temperatures (25–35°C) and ambient CO2 concentrations (390–800 ppm) predicted for the 21st century. Full trait acclimation increased simulated carbon gain by up to 10–20% and the maximum tolerated temperature by up to 2°C, thus reducing risks of tree death under predicted warming. Functional trait acclimation may thus increase the resilience of tropical trees to warming, but cannot prevent tree death during extremely hot and dry years at current CO2 levels. We call for incorporating trait acclimation in field and experimental studies of plant functional traits, and in models that predict responses of tropical forests to climate change. PMID:27242814

  19. Increasing potential for intense tropical and subtropical thunderstorms under global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Martin S; Kuang, Zhiming; Maloney, Eric D; Hannah, Walter M; Wolding, Brandon O

    2017-10-31

    Intense thunderstorms produce rapid cloud updrafts and may be associated with a range of destructive weather events. An important ingredient in measures of the potential for intense thunderstorms is the convective available potential energy (CAPE). Climate models project increases in summertime mean CAPE in the tropics and subtropics in response to global warming, but the physical mechanisms responsible for such increases and the implications for future thunderstorm activity remain uncertain. Here, we show that high percentiles of the CAPE distribution (CAPE extremes) also increase robustly with warming across the tropics and subtropics in an ensemble of state-of-the-art climate models, implying strong increases in the frequency of occurrence of environments conducive to intense thunderstorms in future climate projections. The increase in CAPE extremes is consistent with a recently proposed theoretical model in which CAPE depends on the influence of convective entrainment on the tropospheric lapse rate, and we demonstrate the importance of this influence for simulated CAPE extremes using a climate model in which the convective entrainment rate is varied. We further show that the theoretical model is able to account for the climatological relationship between CAPE and a measure of lower-tropospheric humidity in simulations and in observations. Our results provide a physical basis on which to understand projected future increases in intense thunderstorm potential, and they suggest that an important mechanism that contributes to such increases may be present in Earth's atmosphere. Published under the PNAS license.

  20. Global stability analysis and robust design of multi-time-scale biological networks under parametric uncertainties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer-Baese, Anke; Koshkouei, Ali J; Emmett, Mark R; Goodall, David P

    2009-01-01

    Biological networks are prone to internal parametric fluctuations and external noises. Robustness represents a crucial property of these networks, which militates the effects of internal fluctuations and external noises. In this paper biological networks are formulated as coupled nonlinear differential systems operating at different time-scales under vanishing perturbations. In contrast to previous work viewing biological parametric uncertain systems as perturbations to a known nominal linear system, the perturbed biological system is modeled as nonlinear perturbations to a known nonlinear idealized system and is represented by two time-scales (subsystems). In addition, conditions for the existence of a global uniform attractor of the perturbed biological system are presented. By using an appropriate Lyapunov function for the coupled system, a maximal upper bound for the fast time-scale associated with the fast state is derived. The proposed robust system design principles are potentially applicable to robust biosynthetic network design. Finally, two examples of two important biological networks, a neural network and a gene regulatory network, are presented to illustrate the applicability of the developed theoretical framework.

  1. Global Reverse Supply Chain Redesign for Household Plastic Waste under the Emission Trading Scheme

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bing, X.; Bloemhof-Ruwaard, J.M.; Chabaane, A.; Vorst, van der J.G.A.J.

    2015-01-01

    With increasing global resource scarcity, waste becomes a resource that can be managed globally. A reverse supply chain network for waste recycling needs to process all the waste with minimum costs and environmental impact. As re-processing of waste is one of the major sources of pollution in the

  2. An empirical, hierarchical typology of tree species assemblages for assessing forest dynamics under global change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jennifer K. Costanza; John W. Coulston; David N. Wear

    2017-01-01

    The composition of tree species occurring in a forest is important and can be affected by global change drivers such as climate change. To inform assessment and projection of global change impacts at broad extents, we used hierarchical cluster analysis and over 120,000 recent forest inventory plots to empirically define forest tree assemblages across the U.S., and...

  3. Agricultural production and water use scenarios in Cyprus under global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruggeman, Adriana; Zoumides, Christos; Camera, Corrado; Pashiardis, Stelios; Zomeni, Zomenia

    2014-05-01

    In many countries of the world, food demand exceeds the total agricultural production. In semi-arid countries, agricultural water demand often also exceeds the sustainable supply of water resources. These water-stressed countries are expected to become even drier, as a result of global climate change. This will have a significant impact on the future of the agricultural sector and on food security. The aim of the AGWATER project consortium is to provide recommendations for climate change adaptation for the agricultural sector in Cyprus and the wider Mediterranean region. Gridded climate data sets, with 1-km horizontal resolution were prepared for Cyprus for 1980-2010. Regional Climate Model results were statistically downscaled, with the help of spatial weather generators. A new soil map was prepared using a predictive modelling and mapping technique and a large spatial database with soil and environmental parameters. Stakeholder meetings with agriculture and water stakeholders were held to develop future water prices, based on energy scenarios and to identify climate resilient production systems. Green houses, including also hydroponic systems, grapes, potatoes, cactus pears and carob trees were the more frequently identified production systems. The green-blue-water model, based on the FAO-56 dual crop coefficient approach, has been set up to compute agricultural water demand and yields for all crop fields in Cyprus under selected future scenarios. A set of agricultural production and water use performance indicators are computed by the model, including green and blue water use, crop yield, crop water productivity, net value of crop production and economic water productivity. This work is part of the AGWATER project - AEIFORIA/GEOGRO/0311(BIE)/06 - co-financed by the European Regional Development Fund and the Republic of Cyprus through the Research Promotion Foundation.

  4. Distributions of decadal means of temperature and precipitation change under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watterson, I. G.; Whetton, P. H.

    2011-04-01

    There remains uncertainty in the projected climate change over the 21st century, in part because of the range of responses forced by rising greenhouse gas concentrations among global climate models. This paper applies a method of estimating distributions and "probability density functions" (PDFs) for forced change, based on the pattern scaling technique and previously used for Australia, to generate changes in temperature and precipitation at locations over the globe, from simulations of 23 CMIP3 models. Changes for 2030 and 2100, under the A1B scenario for concentrations, for both seasonal and annual cases are presented. The PDFs for temperature have a standard deviation that averages 31% of the mean change, and they tend to be positively skewed. The standard deviation for precipitation averages 15% of the base climate mean, leading to five and 95 percentile estimates that are of opposite sign for most of the globe. A further source of uncertainty of change for a particular period of time, such as a decadal average, is the unforced or internal variability of climate. A joint probability distribution approach is used to produce PDFs for decadal means by adding in an estimate of internal variability. In the decade centered on 2030, this broadens the PDFs substantially. The results are related to time series of observations and projections over 1900-2100 for the agricultural regions of Iowa and the Murray-Darling Basin. For most land areas, warming becomes clearly discernable, allowing for both uncertainties, in the next few decades. Data files of the key results are provided.

  5. Spring phenology at different altitudes is becoming more uniform under global warming in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lei; Huang, Jian-Guo; Ma, Qianqian; Hänninen, Heikki; Rossi, Sergio; Piao, Shilong; Bergeron, Yves

    2018-04-26

    Under current global warming, high-elevation regions are expected to experience faster warming than low-elevation regions. However, due to the lack of studies based on long-term large-scale data, the relationship between tree spring phenology and the elevation-dependent warming is unclear. Using 652k records of leaf unfolding of five temperate tree species monitored during 1951-2013 in situ in Europe, we discovered a non-linear trend in the altitudinal sensitivity (S A , shifted days per 100 m in altitude) in spring phenology. A delayed leaf unfolding (2.7 ± 0.6 days per decade) was observed at high elevations possibly due to decreased spring forcing between 1951 and 1980. The delayed leaf unfolding at high-elevation regions was companied by a simultaneous advancing of leaf unfolding at low elevations. These divergent trends contributed to a significant increase in the S A (0.36 ± 0.07 days 100 m -1 per decade) during 1951-1980. Since 1980, the S A started to decline with a rate of -0.32 ± 0.07 days 100 m -1 per decade, possibly due to reduced chilling at low elevations and improved efficiency of spring forcing in advancing the leaf unfolding at high elevations, the latter being caused by increased chilling. Our results suggest that due to both different temperature changes at the different altitudes, and the different tree responses to these changes, the tree phenology has shifted at different rates leading to a more uniform phenology at different altitudes during recent decades. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  6. China's energy consumption under the global economic crisis: Decomposition and sectoral analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Fangyi; Song, Zhouying; Liu, Weidong

    2014-01-01

    It is now widely recognized that there is a strong relationship between energy consumption and economic growth. Most countries′ energy demands declined during the economic depression of 2008–2009 when a worldwide economic crisis occurred. As an export-oriented economy, China suffered a serious exports decline in the course of the crisis. However, it was found that energy consumption continued to increase. Against such a background, this paper aims to assess and explain the factors causing the growth of energy consumption in China. First, we will explain the impact of domestic final use and international trade on energy consumption by using decomposition analysis. Second, embodied energy and its variation across sectors are quantified to identify the key sectors contributing to the growth. Lastly, the policy implications for long-term energy conservation are discussed. The results show that the decline in exports was one of the driving forces for energy consumption reduction in the crisis, but that the growth of domestic demand in manufacturing and construction, largely stimulated by economic stimulus plans, had the opposite effect on energy consumption. International trade contributed to decreasing energy consumption of China during and after the crisis because the structure of exports and imports changed in this period. - Highlights: • We analyze the reasons for China's energy consumption change under the global economic crisis during 2007–2010. • Domestic final use growth, especially in construction and manufacturing of machinery and equipment, resulted in energy consumption increase. • International trade is identified as a driver of energy consumption reduction during and after the crisis. • Increasing China's share of consumption or reducing its share of investment in the GDP can reduce national energy intensity

  7. An Assessment of Global Electric-Sector Water Demands to 2100 under the Latest Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ando, N.; Yoshikawa, S.; Kanae, S.

    2016-12-01

    Electricity demands are likely to continue growing in the coming decades, due to population and economy growth. The electric growth could lead water demands to increase because some kinds of power generation methods such as thermal power generation require large amount of water. Many countries still rely on thermal power generation. Thus, we are concerned that electricity generation could be a big factor to accelerate water scarcity. In this study, to assess the electric-sector impacts on water demands, we estimated future electric-sector water withdrawal and consumption in 17 regions from 2010 to 2100. The water withdrawal and consumption are calculated by using electricity generation and water demand intensities. The data set of future electricity generation is derived by the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model. This model applied the latest scenarios for global climate change studies, the socio-economic scenario (SSPs) and the radiative forcing scenario (RCPs). We used the water demands intensity data set of Macknick et al. (2012). Water demand intensities for power plants considerably varies by power plant cooling systems. Therefore, we constructed cooling system share scenarios. Our results indicated that by 2100, the water withdrawal and consumption in current developing countries increased and caught up with that in current developed countries. We found that socio-economic scenarios (SSPs) has large impacts on the water withdrawal and consumption. Sustainable society (SSP1) and conventional development society (SSP5) have higher economic growth than fragmentation society (SSP3). The sustainable society needs smaller amount of the water withdrawal and consumption compared with fragmentation society. In contrast, the conventional development society needs larger amount of the water withdrawal and consumption compared with fragmentation society. Therefore, higher economic growth did not always lead less electric-sector water withdrawal and consumption. A shift of

  8. Exploring the biogeophysical limits of global food production under different climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Vrese, Philipp; Stacke, Tobias; Hagemann, Stefan

    2018-04-01

    An adapted Earth system model is used to investigate the limitations that future climate and water availability impose on the potential expansion and productivity of croplands. The model maximizes the cropland area under prevailing climate conditions and accounts for an optimized, sustainable irrigation practice, thus allowing us to consider the two-way feedback between climate and agriculture. For three greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5), we show that the total cropland area could be extended substantially throughout the 21st century, especially in South America and sub-Saharan Africa, where the rising water demand resulting from increasing temperatures can largely be met by increasing precipitation and irrigation rates. When accounting for the CO2 fertilization effect, only a few agricultural areas have to be abandoned owing to declines in productivity, while increasing temperatures allow for the expansion of croplands even into high northern latitudes. Without the CO2 fertilization effect there is no increase in the overall cropland fraction during the second half of the century but areal losses in increasingly water-stressed regions can be compensated for by an expansion in regions that were previously too cold. However, global yields are more sensitive and, without the benefits of CO2 fertilization, they may decrease when greenhouse gas concentrations exceed the RCP4.5 scenario. For certain regions the situation is even more concerning and guaranteeing food security in dry areas in Northern Africa, the Middle East and South Asia will become increasingly difficult, even for the idealized scenarios investigated in this study.

  9. Under the (legal radar screen: global health initiatives and international human rights obligations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hammonds Rachel

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Given that many low income countries are heavily reliant on external assistance to fund their health sectors the acceptance of obligations of international assistance and cooperation with regard to the right to health (global health obligations is insufficiently understood and studied by international health and human rights scholars. Over the past decade Global Health Initiatives, like the Global Fund to fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (Global Fund have adopted novel approaches to engaging with stakeholders in high and low income countries. This article explores how this experience impacted on acceptance of the international obligation to (help fulfil the right to health beyond borders. Methods The authors conducted an extensive review of international human rights law literature, transnational legal process literature, global public health literature and grey literature pertaining to Global Health Initiatives. To complement this desk work and deepen their understanding of how and why different legal norms evolve the authors conducted 19 in-depth key informant interviews with actors engaged with three stakeholders; the European Union, the United States and Belgium. The authors then analysed the interviews through a transnational legal process lens. Results Through according value to the process of examining how and why different legal norms evolve transnational legal process offers us a tool for engaging with the dynamism of developments in global health suggesting that operationalising global health obligations could advance the right to health for all. Conclusions In many low-income countries the health sector is heavily dependent on external assistance to fulfil the right to health of people thus it is vital that policies and tools for delivering reliable, long-term assistance are developed so that the right to health for all becomes more than a dream. Our research suggests that the Global Fund experience offers

  10. Under the (legal) radar screen: global health initiatives and international human rights obligations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background Given that many low income countries are heavily reliant on external assistance to fund their health sectors the acceptance of obligations of international assistance and cooperation with regard to the right to health (global health obligations) is insufficiently understood and studied by international health and human rights scholars. Over the past decade Global Health Initiatives, like the Global Fund to fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (Global Fund) have adopted novel approaches to engaging with stakeholders in high and low income countries. This article explores how this experience impacted on acceptance of the international obligation to (help) fulfil the right to health beyond borders. Methods The authors conducted an extensive review of international human rights law literature, transnational legal process literature, global public health literature and grey literature pertaining to Global Health Initiatives. To complement this desk work and deepen their understanding of how and why different legal norms evolve the authors conducted 19 in-depth key informant interviews with actors engaged with three stakeholders; the European Union, the United States and Belgium. The authors then analysed the interviews through a transnational legal process lens. Results Through according value to the process of examining how and why different legal norms evolve transnational legal process offers us a tool for engaging with the dynamism of developments in global health suggesting that operationalising global health obligations could advance the right to health for all. Conclusions In many low-income countries the health sector is heavily dependent on external assistance to fulfil the right to health of people thus it is vital that policies and tools for delivering reliable, long-term assistance are developed so that the right to health for all becomes more than a dream. Our research suggests that the Global Fund experience offers lessons to build on. PMID

  11. Under the (legal) radar screen: global health initiatives and international human rights obligations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammonds, Rachel; Ooms, Gorik; Vandenhole, Wouter

    2012-11-15

    Given that many low income countries are heavily reliant on external assistance to fund their health sectors the acceptance of obligations of international assistance and cooperation with regard to the right to health (global health obligations) is insufficiently understood and studied by international health and human rights scholars. Over the past decade Global Health Initiatives, like the Global Fund to fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (Global Fund) have adopted novel approaches to engaging with stakeholders in high and low income countries. This article explores how this experience impacted on acceptance of the international obligation to (help) fulfil the right to health beyond borders. The authors conducted an extensive review of international human rights law literature, transnational legal process literature, global public health literature and grey literature pertaining to Global Health Initiatives. To complement this desk work and deepen their understanding of how and why different legal norms evolve the authors conducted 19 in-depth key informant interviews with actors engaged with three stakeholders; the European Union, the United States and Belgium. The authors then analysed the interviews through a transnational legal process lens. Through according value to the process of examining how and why different legal norms evolve transnational legal process offers us a tool for engaging with the dynamism of developments in global health suggesting that operationalising global health obligations could advance the right to health for all. In many low-income countries the health sector is heavily dependent on external assistance to fulfil the right to health of people thus it is vital that policies and tools for delivering reliable, long-term assistance are developed so that the right to health for all becomes more than a dream. Our research suggests that the Global Fund experience offers lessons to build on.

  12. Public-private partnerships and responsibility under international law: a global health perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Clarke, L.

    2014-01-01

    Partnerships between the public and private sectors are an increasingly accepted method to deal with pressing global issues, such as those relating to health. Partnerships, comprised of states and international organizations (public sector) and companies, non-governmental organizations, research

  13. Marine archaea and archaeal viruses under global change [version 1; referees: 2 approved

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberto Danovaro

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Global change is altering oceanic temperature, salinity, pH, and oxygen concentration, directly and indirectly influencing marine microbial food web structure and function. As microbes represent >90% of the ocean’s biomass and are major drivers of biogeochemical cycles, understanding their responses to such changes is fundamental for predicting the consequences of global change on ecosystem functioning. Recent findings indicate that marine archaea and archaeal viruses are active and relevant components of marine microbial assemblages, far more abundant and diverse than was previously thought. Further research is urgently needed to better understand the impacts of global change on virus–archaea dynamics and how archaea and their viruses can interactively influence the ocean’s feedbacks on global change.

  14. Global hydrological droughts in the 21st century under a changing hydrological regime

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wanders, Niko; Wada, Yoshi; van Lanen, H.A.J

    2015-01-01

    Climate change very likely impacts future hydrological drought characteristics across the world. Here, we quantify the impact of climate change on future low flows and associated hydrological drought characteristics on a global scale using an alternative drought identification approach that

  15. Changes in Intense Precipitation Events in West Africa and the central U.S. under Global Warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cook, Kerry H. [Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX (United States); Vizy, Edward [Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX (United States)

    2016-02-08

    The purpose of the proposed project is to improve our understanding of the physical processes and large-scale connectivity of changes in intense precipitation events (high rainfall rates) under global warming in West Africa and the central U.S., including relationships with low-frequency modes of variability. This is in response to the requested subject area #2 “simulation of climate extremes under a changing climate … to better quantify the frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme events under climate change and elucidate the role of low frequency climate variability in modulating extremes.” We will use a regional climate model and emphasize an understanding of the physical processes that lead to an intensification of rainfall. The project objectives are as follows: 1. Understand the processes responsible for simulated changes in warm-season rainfall intensity and frequency over West Africa and the Central U.S. associated with greenhouse gas-induced global warming 2. Understand the relationship between changes in warm-season rainfall intensity and frequency, which generally occur on regional space scales, and the larger-scale global warming signal by considering modifications of low-frequency modes of variability. 3. Relate changes simulated on regional space scales to global-scale theories of how and why atmospheric moisture levels and rainfall should change as climate warms.

  16. The vulnerability of animal and human health to parasites under global change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutherst, R W

    2001-07-01

    The term 'global change' is used to encompass all of the significant drivers of environmental change as experienced by hosts, parasites and parasite managers. The term includes changes in climate and climate variability, atmospheric composition, land use and land cover including deforestation and urbanisation, bio-geochemistry, globalisation of trade and transport, the spread of alien species, human health and technology. A subset of land use issues relates to the management of protective technologies in relation to residues in food and the environment and the emergence of resistance. Another is the question of changing biodiversity of both parasites and their associated natural enemies, and the effects on the host--parasite relationship and on parasite management. A framework for studying impacts of global change is proposed and illustrated with field data, and CLIMEX and simulation modelling of the cattle tick Boophilus microplus in Australia. Parasitology suffers from the perception that the key impacts of global change will be driven by changes at lower trophic levels, with parasitic interactions being treated as secondary effects. This is incorrect because the environment mediates host-parasite interactions as much as it affects parasites directly. Parasitologists need to strive for holistic solutions to the management of animal and human health, within a wider context of overall management of those systems, if they are to make a meaningful contribution to global efforts aimed at coping with global change.

  17. Global isoprene and monoterpene emissions under changing climate, vegetation, CO2 and land use

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hantson, Stijn; Knorr, Wolfgang; Schurgers, Guy

    2017-01-01

    Plants emit large quantities of isoprene and monoterpenes, the main components of global biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions. BVOCs have an important impact on the atmospheric composition of methane, and of short-lived radiative forcing agents (e.g. ozone, aerosols etc.......). It is therefore necessary to know how isoprene and monoterpene emissions have changed over the past and how future changes in climate, land-use and other factors will impact them. Here we present emission estimates of isoprene and monoterpenes over the period 1901–2 100 based on the dynamic global vegetation...... model LPJ-GUESS, including the effects of all known important drivers. We find that both isoprene and monoterpene emissions at the beginning of the 20th century were higher than at present. While anthropogenic land-use change largely drives the global decreasing trend for isoprene over the 20th century...

  18. Global hydrological droughts in the 21st century under a changing hydrological regime

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Wanders

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change very likely impacts future hydrological drought characteristics across the world. Here, we quantify the impact of climate change on future low flows and associated hydrological drought characteristics on a global scale using an alternative drought identification approach that considers adaptation to future changes in hydrological regime. The global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB was used to simulate daily discharge at 0.5° globally for 1971–2099. The model was forced with CMIP5 climate projections taken from five global circulation models (GCMs and four emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways, RCPs, from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. Drought events occur when discharge is below a threshold. The conventional variable threshold (VTM was calculated by deriving the threshold from the period 1971–2000. The transient variable threshold (VTMt is a non-stationary approach, where the threshold is based on the discharge values of the previous 30 years implying the threshold to vary every year during the 21st century. The VTMt adjusts to gradual changes in the hydrological regime as response to climate change. Results show a significant negative trend in the low flow regime over the 21st century for large parts of South America, southern Africa, Australia and the Mediterranean. In 40–52% of the world reduced low flows are projected, while increased low flows are found in the snow-dominated climates. In 27% of the global area both the drought duration and the deficit volume are expected to increase when applying the VTMt. However, this area will significantly increase to 62% when the VTM is applied. The mean global area in drought, with the VTMt, remains rather constant (11.7 to 13.4%, compared to the substantial increase when the VTM is applied (11.7 to 20%. The study illustrates that an alternative drought identification that considers adaptation to an altered hydrological regime has a

  19. Mediterranean, invasive, woody species grow larger than their less-invasive counterparts under potential global environmental change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erskine-Ogden, Jennifer; Grotkopp, Eva; Rejmánek, Marcel

    2016-04-01

    Revealing biological differences between invasive and noninvasive species is essential for predicting species' distribution changes with global environmental change. While most research has focused on differences between invasive and noninvasive species under favorable conditions using herbaceous species, invasive woody angiosperms are also of great ecological concern. Our study focused on how growth and allocation may change for invasive and noninvasive, mediterranean, woody angiosperms under future conditions caused by global change, specifically increased nitrogen deposition and drought. We tested how seedling functional traits differed between invasive and noninvasive woody angiosperms under different experimental conditions in a greenhouse setting. We compared growth rates and allocation patterns using two levels of soil nitrogen and three levels of watering. We also examined trait log response ratios to increases in nitrogen and increases in water. Our study sampled angiosperm trees and shrubs, incorporating congeneric/confamilial relationships through 13 phylogenetically controlled contrasts. Three functional traits were highly and positively associated with plant invasiveness for most conditions studied: seedling plant mass, leaf area, and height. Invasive species also had significantly higher root mass ratios at low water regardless of nitrogen input. Invasive and noninvasive species had similar log response ratios to increases in nitrogen and watering for studied traits. Mediterranean, woody, invasive species' larger mass, leaf area, and early height advantage under elevated nitrogen input and increased root production in drought conditions may lead to increased invasion of these species with expected global climate change. © 2016 Botanical Society of America.

  20. Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, John B.; Monier, Erwan; Sohngen, Brent; Pitts, G. Stephen; Drapek, Ray; McFarland, James; Ohrel, Sara; Cole, Jefferson

    2017-04-01

    We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomes of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.

  1. Land–atmosphere feedbacks amplify aridity increase over land under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, Alexis; Findell, Kirsten; Lintner, Benjamin; Giannini, Alessandra; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; van den Hurk, Bart; Lorenz, Ruth; Pitman, Andy; Hagemann, Stefan; Meier, Arndt; Cheruy, Frédérique; Ducharne, Agnès; Malyshev, Sergey; Milly, Paul C. D.

    2016-01-01

    The response of the terrestrial water cycle to global warming is central to issues including water resources, agriculture and ecosystem health. Recent studies indicate that aridity, defined in terms of atmospheric supply (precipitation, P) and demand (potential evapotranspiration, Ep) of water at the land surface, will increase globally in a warmer world. Recently proposed mechanisms for this response emphasize the driving role of oceanic warming and associated atmospheric processes. Here we show that the aridity response is substantially amplified by land–atmosphere feedbacks associated with the land surface’s response to climate and CO2 change. Using simulations from the Global Land Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE)-CMIP5 experiment, we show that global aridity is enhanced by the feedbacks of projected soil moisture decrease on land surface temperature, relative humidity and precipitation. The physiological impact of increasing atmospheric CO2 on vegetation exerts a qualitatively similar control on aridity. We reconcile these findings with previously proposed mechanisms by showing that the moist enthalpy change over land is unaffected by the land hydrological response. Thus, although oceanic warming constrains the combined moisture and temperature changes over land, land hydrology modulates the partitioning of this enthalpy increase towards increased aridity.

  2. IT Investment Guidelines in Taiwan's IT Industry under a Global Economic Downturn

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cha, Un Un

    2011-01-01

    The current qualitative phenomenological study focused on how information technology (IT) leaders managed IT investment during the global economic downturn in the Taiwan IT industry. Organizations around the world spend billions of dollars on IT-related products and services every year. Determining an effective IT investment plan is a complex task…

  3. Molecular mechanisms responsive to dehydration may impact the invasiveness of perennial weeds under global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leafy spurge is an invasive perennial weed in the great plains of the US and Canada. The ability of this herbaceous weed to regenerate new shoot growth from an abundance of crown and root buds after severe abiotic stress is critical for survival. Due to its adaptable and aggressive nature, global cl...

  4. Citizenship Education under Discourses of Nationalism, Globalization, and Cosmopolitanism: Illustrations from China and the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camicia, Steven P.; Zhu, Juanjuan

    2011-01-01

    The authors, one from China and one from the United States, present a theoretical framework for understanding the discursive fields of citizenship education as composed, in large part, of the discourses of nationalism, globalization, and cosmopolitanism. The framework is illustrated by examples from citizenship education in China and the United…

  5. Global hydrological droughts in the 21st century under a changing hydrological regime

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wanders, N.; Wada, Y.; Lanen, Van H.A.J.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change very likely impacts future hydrological drought characteristics across the world. Here, we quantify the impact of climate change on future low flows and associated hydrological drought characteristics on a global scale using an alternative drought identification approach that

  6. Predicting changes in alluvial channel patterns in North-European Russia under conditions of global warming.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anisimov, O.; Vandenberghe, J.; Lobanov, V.; Kondratiev, A.

    2008-01-01

    Global climate change may have a noticeable impact on the northern environment, leading to changes in permafrost, vegetation and fluvial morphology. In this paper we compare the results from three geomorphological models and study the potential effects of changing climatic factors on the river

  7. Monitoring Multitemporal Soil Moisture, Rainfall, and ET in Lake Manatee Watershed, South Florida under Global Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, N.

    2009-12-01

    Ni-Bin Chang1, Ammarin Daranpob 1, and Y. Jeffrey Yang2 1Civil, Environmental, and Construction Engineering Department, University of Central Florida, Orlando FL, USA 2Water Supply and Water Resources Division, National Risk Management Research Laboratory, U.S. EPA, Cincinnati, Ohio, USA ASBTRACT: Global climate change and its related impacts on water supply are universally recognized. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which is based on long term changes in the temperature of the surface of the North Atlantic Ocean, is a source of changes in river flow patterns in Florida. The AMO has a multi-decadal frequency. Under its impact, several distinct types of river patterns were identified within Florida, including a Southern River Pattern (SRP), a Northern River Pattern (NRP), a Bimodal River Pattern (BRP), etc. (Kelley and Gore, 2008). Some SRPs are present in the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD). Changes in river flows occur because significant sea surface temperature (SST) changes affect continental rainfall patterns. It had been observed that, between AMO warm (i.e., from 1939 to 1968) and cold phases (i.e., from 1969 to 1993), the average daily inflow to Lake Okeechobee varies by 40% in the transition from the warm to cold phases in South Florida. The Manatee County is located in the Southern Water Use Caution Area (SWUCA) due to the depletion of the Upper Floridian Aquifer and its entire western portion of the County is designated as part of the Most Impacted Area (MIA) within the Eastern Tampa Bay Water Use Caution Area relative to the SWUCA. Major source of Manatee County’s water is an 332 Km2 (82,000-acre) watershed (i.e., Lake Manatee Watershed) that drains into the man-made Lake Manatee Reservoir. The lake has a total volume of 0.21 billion m3 (7.5 billion gallons) and will cover 7.3 Km2 (1,800 acres) when full. The proper use of remote sensing images and sensor network technologies can provide information on both spatial and

  8. Precipitation Cluster Distributions: Current Climate Storm Statistics and Projected Changes Under Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quinn, Kevin Martin

    The total amount of precipitation integrated across a precipitation cluster (contiguous precipitating grid cells exceeding a minimum rain rate) is a useful measure of the aggregate size of the disturbance, expressed as the rate of water mass lost or latent heat released, i.e. the power of the disturbance. Probability distributions of cluster power are examined during boreal summer (May-September) and winter (January-March) using satellite-retrieved rain rates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 and Special Sensor Microwave Imager and Sounder (SSM/I and SSMIS) programs, model output from the High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HIRAM, roughly 0.25-0.5 0 resolution), seven 1-2° resolution members of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) experiment, and National Center for Atmospheric Research Large Ensemble (NCAR LENS). Spatial distributions of precipitation-weighted centroids are also investigated in observations (TRMM-3B42) and climate models during winter as a metric for changes in mid-latitude storm tracks. Observed probability distributions for both seasons are scale-free from the smallest clusters up to a cutoff scale at high cluster power, after which the probability density drops rapidly. When low rain rates are excluded by choosing a minimum rain rate threshold in defining clusters, the models accurately reproduce observed cluster power statistics and winter storm tracks. Changes in behavior in the tail of the distribution, above the cutoff, are important for impacts since these quantify the frequency of the most powerful storms. End-of-century cluster power distributions and storm track locations are investigated in these models under a "business as usual" global warming scenario. The probability of high cluster power events increases by end-of-century across all models, by up to an order of magnitude for the highest-power events for which statistics can be computed. For the three models in the suite with continuous

  9. Nature-based solutions for urban landscapes under post-industrialization and globalization: Barcelona versus Shanghai.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Peilei; Ouyang, Zutao; Basnou, Corina; Pino, Joan; Park, Hogeun; Chen, Jiquan

    2017-07-01

    Using Barcelona and Shanghai as case studies, we examined the nature-based solutions (NBS) in urban settings-specifically within cities experiencing post-industrialization and globalization. Our specific research questions are: (1) What are the spatiotemporal changes in urban built-up land and green space in Barcelona and Shanghai? (2) What are the relationships between economic development, exemplified by post-industrialization, globalization, and urban green space? Urban land use and green space change were evaluated using data derived from a variety of sources, including satellite images, landscape matrix indicators, and a land conversion matrix. The relationships between economic development, globalization, and environmental quality were analyzed through partial least squares structural equation modeling based on secondary statistical data. Both Barcelona and Shanghai have undergone rapid urbanization, with urban expansion in Barcelona beginning in the 1960s-1970s and in Shanghai in the last decade. While Barcelona's urban green space and green space per capita began declining between the 1950s and 1990s, they increased slightly over the past two decades. Shanghai, however, has consistently and significantly improved urban green space and green space per capita over the past six decades, especially since the economic reform in 1978. Economic development has a direct and significant influence on urban green space for both cities and post-industrialization had served as the main driving force for urban landscape change in Barcelona and Shanghai. Based on secondary statistical and qualitative data from on-site observations and interviews with local experts, we highlighted the institution's role in NBS planning. Furthermore, aspiration to become a global or globalizing city motivated both cities to use NBS planning as a place-making tool to attract global investment, which is reflected in various governing policies and regulations. The cities' effort to achieve a

  10. Assessing the Global Climate Response to Freshwater Forcing from the Antarctic Ice Sheet Under Future Climate Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogstad, S.; Condron, A.; DeConto, R.; Pollard, D.

    2017-12-01

    Observational evidence indicates that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is losing mass at an accelerating rate. Impacts to global climate resulting from changing ocean circulation patterns due to increased freshwater runoff from Antarctica in the future could have significant implications for global heat transport, but to-date this topic has not been investigated using complex numerical models with realistic freshwater forcing. Here, we present results from a high resolution fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model (CESM 1.2) forced with runoff from Antarctica prescribed from a high resolution regional ice sheet-ice shelf model. Results from the regional simulations indicate a potential freshwater contribution from Antarctica of up to 1 m equivalent sea level rise by the end of the century under RCP 8.5 indicating that a substantial input of freshwater into the Southern Ocean is possible. Our high resolution global simulations were performed under IPCC future climate scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5. We will present results showing the impact of WAIS collapse on global ocean circulation, sea ice, air temperature, and salinity in order to assess the potential for abrupt climate change triggered by WAIS collapse.

  11. Drylands face potential threat under 2 °C global warming target

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Jianping; Yu, Haipeng; Dai, Aiguo; Wei, Yun; Kang, Litai

    2017-06-01

    The Paris Agreement aims to limit global mean surface warming to less than 2 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. However, we show this target is acceptable only for humid lands, whereas drylands will bear greater warming risks. Over the past century, surface warming over global drylands (1.2-1.3 °C) has been 20-40% higher than that over humid lands (0.8-1.0 °C), while anthropogenic CO2 emissions generated from drylands (~230 Gt) have been only ~30% of those generated from humid lands (~750 Gt). For the twenty-first century, warming of 3.2-4.0 °C (2.4-2.6 °C) over drylands (humid lands) could occur when global warming reaches 2.0 °C, indicating ~44% more warming over drylands than humid lands. Decreased maize yields and runoff, increased long-lasting drought and more favourable conditions for malaria transmission are greatest over drylands if global warming were to rise from 1.5 °C to 2.0 °C. Our analyses indicate that ~38% of the world's population living in drylands would suffer the effects of climate change due to emissions primarily from humid lands. If the 1.5 °C warming limit were attained, the mean warming over drylands could be within 3.0 °C therefore it is necessary to keep global warming within 1.5 °C to prevent disastrous effects over drylands.

  12. Changes in Extremely Hot Summers over the Global Land Area under Various Warming Targets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lei; Huang, Jianbin; Luo, Yong; Yao, Yao; Zhao, Zongci

    2015-01-01

    Summer temperature extremes over the global land area were investigated by comparing 26 models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) with observations from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the Climate Research Unit (CRU). Monthly data of the observations and models were averaged for each season, and statistics were calculated for individual models before averaging them to obtain ensemble means. The summers with temperature anomalies (relative to 1951–1980) exceeding 3σ (σ is based on the local internal variability) are defined as “extremely hot”. The models well reproduced the statistical characteristics evolution, and partly captured the spatial distributions of historical summer temperature extremes. If the global mean temperature increases 2°C relative to the pre-industrial level, “extremely hot” summers are projected to occur over nearly 40% of the land area (multi-model ensemble mean projection). Summers that exceed 5σ warming are projected to occur over approximately 10% of the global land area, which were rarely observed during the reference period. Scenarios reaching warming levels of 3°C to 5°C were also analyzed. After exceeding the 5°C warming target, “extremely hot” summers are projected to occur throughout the entire global land area, and summers that exceed 5σ warming would become common over 70% of the land area. In addition, the areas affected by “extremely hot” summers are expected to rapidly expand by more than 25%/°C as the global mean temperature increases by up to 3°C before slowing to less than 16%/°C as the temperature continues to increase by more than 3°C. The area that experiences summers with warming of 5σ or more above the warming target of 2°C is likely to maintain rapid expansion of greater than 17%/°C. To reduce the impacts and damage from severely hot summers, the global mean temperature increase should remain low. PMID:26090931

  13. Changes in Extremely Hot Summers over the Global Land Area under Various Warming Targets.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Wang

    Full Text Available Summer temperature extremes over the global land area were investigated by comparing 26 models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 with observations from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS and the Climate Research Unit (CRU. Monthly data of the observations and models were averaged for each season, and statistics were calculated for individual models before averaging them to obtain ensemble means. The summers with temperature anomalies (relative to 1951-1980 exceeding 3σ (σ is based on the local internal variability are defined as "extremely hot". The models well reproduced the statistical characteristics evolution, and partly captured the spatial distributions of historical summer temperature extremes. If the global mean temperature increases 2°C relative to the pre-industrial level, "extremely hot" summers are projected to occur over nearly 40% of the land area (multi-model ensemble mean projection. Summers that exceed 5σ warming are projected to occur over approximately 10% of the global land area, which were rarely observed during the reference period. Scenarios reaching warming levels of 3°C to 5°C were also analyzed. After exceeding the 5°C warming target, "extremely hot" summers are projected to occur throughout the entire global land area, and summers that exceed 5σ warming would become common over 70% of the land area. In addition, the areas affected by "extremely hot" summers are expected to rapidly expand by more than 25%/°C as the global mean temperature increases by up to 3°C before slowing to less than 16%/°C as the temperature continues to increase by more than 3°C. The area that experiences summers with warming of 5σ or more above the warming target of 2°C is likely to maintain rapid expansion of greater than 17%/°C. To reduce the impacts and damage from severely hot summers, the global mean temperature increase should remain low.

  14. Changes in Extremely Hot Summers over the Global Land Area under Various Warming Targets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lei; Huang, Jianbin; Luo, Yong; Yao, Yao; Zhao, Zongci

    2015-01-01

    Summer temperature extremes over the global land area were investigated by comparing 26 models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) with observations from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the Climate Research Unit (CRU). Monthly data of the observations and models were averaged for each season, and statistics were calculated for individual models before averaging them to obtain ensemble means. The summers with temperature anomalies (relative to 1951-1980) exceeding 3σ (σ is based on the local internal variability) are defined as "extremely hot". The models well reproduced the statistical characteristics evolution, and partly captured the spatial distributions of historical summer temperature extremes. If the global mean temperature increases 2°C relative to the pre-industrial level, "extremely hot" summers are projected to occur over nearly 40% of the land area (multi-model ensemble mean projection). Summers that exceed 5σ warming are projected to occur over approximately 10% of the global land area, which were rarely observed during the reference period. Scenarios reaching warming levels of 3°C to 5°C were also analyzed. After exceeding the 5°C warming target, "extremely hot" summers are projected to occur throughout the entire global land area, and summers that exceed 5σ warming would become common over 70% of the land area. In addition, the areas affected by "extremely hot" summers are expected to rapidly expand by more than 25%/°C as the global mean temperature increases by up to 3°C before slowing to less than 16%/°C as the temperature continues to increase by more than 3°C. The area that experiences summers with warming of 5σ or more above the warming target of 2°C is likely to maintain rapid expansion of greater than 17%/°C. To reduce the impacts and damage from severely hot summers, the global mean temperature increase should remain low.

  15. A global water scarcity assessment under Shared Socio-economic Pathways - Part 2: Water availability and scarcity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanasaki, N.; Fujimori, S.; Yamamoto, T.; Yoshikawa, S.; Masaki, Y.; Hijioka, Y.; Kainuma, M.; Kanamori, Y.; Masui, T.; Takahashi, K.; Kanae, S.

    2013-07-01

    A global water scarcity assessment for the 21st century was conducted under the latest socio-economic scenario for global change studies, namely Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). SSPs depict five global situations with substantially different socio-economic conditions. In the accompanying paper, a water use scenario compatible with the SSPs was developed. This scenario considers not only quantitative socio-economic factors such as population and electricity production but also qualitative ones such as the degree of technological change and overall environmental consciousness. In this paper, water availability and water scarcity were assessed using a global hydrological model called H08. H08 simulates both the natural water cycle and major human activities such as water abstraction and reservoir operation. It simulates water availability and use at daily time intervals at a spatial resolution of 0.5° × 0.5°. A series of global hydrological simulations were conducted under the SSPs, taking into account different climate policy options and the results of climate models. Water scarcity was assessed using an index termed the Cumulative Abstraction to Demand ratio, which is expressed as the accumulation of daily water abstraction from a river divided by the daily consumption-based potential water demand. This index can be used to express whether renewable water resources are available from rivers when required. The results suggested that by 2071-2100 the population living under severely water-stressed conditions for SSP1-5 will reach 2588-2793 × 106 (39-42% of total population), 3966-4298 × 106 (46-50%), 5334-5643 × 106 (52-55%), 3427-3786 × 106 (40-45%), 3164-3379 × 106 (46-49%) respectively, if climate policies are not adopted. Even in SSP1 (the scenario with least change in water use and climate) global water scarcity increases considerably, as compared to the present-day. This is mainly due to the growth in population and economic activity in developing

  16. Increasing water cycle extremes in California and in relation to ENSO cycle under global warming

    OpenAIRE

    Yoon, Jin-Ho; Wang, S-Y Simon; Gillies, Robert R.; Kravitz, Ben; Hipps, Lawrence; Rasch, Philip J.

    2015-01-01

    Since the winter of 2013–2014, California has experienced its most severe drought in recorded history, causing statewide water stress, severe economic loss and an extraordinary increase in wildfires. Identifying the effects of global warming on regional water cycle extremes, such as the ongoing drought in California, remains a challenge. Here we analyse large-ensemble and multi-model simulations that project the future of water cycle extremes in California as well as to understand those assoc...

  17. The growth of finfish in global open-ocean aquaculture under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klinger, Dane H; Levin, Simon A; Watson, James R

    2017-10-11

    Aquaculture production is projected to expand from land-based operations to the open ocean as demand for seafood grows and competition increases for inputs to land-based aquaculture, such as freshwater and suitable land. In contrast to land-based production, open-ocean aquaculture is constrained by oceanographic factors, such as current speeds and seawater temperature, which are dynamic in time and space, and cannot easily be controlled. As such, the potential for offshore aquaculture to increase seafood production is tied to the physical state of the oceans. We employ a novel spatial model to estimate the potential of open-ocean finfish aquaculture globally, given physical, biological and technological constraints. Finfish growth potential for three common aquaculture species representing different thermal guilds-Atlantic salmon ( Salmo salar ), gilthead seabream ( Sparus aurata ) and cobia ( Rachycentron canadum )-is compared across species and regions and with climate change, based on outputs of a high-resolution global climate model. Globally, there are ample areas that are physically suitable for fish growth and potential expansion of the nascent aquaculture industry. The effects of climate change are heterogeneous across species and regions, but areas with existing aquaculture industries are likely to see increases in growth rates. In areas where climate change results in reduced growth rates, adaptation measures, such as selective breeding, can probably offset potential production losses. © 2017 The Author(s).

  18. Coastal livelihood transitions under globalization with implications for trans-ecosystem interactions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel B Kramer

    Full Text Available Anthropogenic threats to natural systems can be exacerbated due to connectivity between marine, freshwater, and terrestrial ecosystems, complicating the already daunting task of governance across the land-sea interface. Globalization, including new access to markets, can change social-ecological, land-sea linkages via livelihood responses and adaptations by local people. As a first step in understanding these trans-ecosystem effects, we examined exit and entry decisions of artisanal fishers and smallholder farmers on the rapidly globalizing Caribbean coast of Nicaragua. We found that exit and entry decisions demonstrated clear temporal and spatial patterns and that these decisions differed by livelihood. In addition to household characteristics, livelihood exit and entry decisions were strongly affected by new access to regional and global markets. The natural resource implications of these livelihood decisions are potentially profound as they provide novel linkages and spatially-explicit feedbacks between terrestrial and marine ecosystems. Our findings support the need for more scientific inquiry in understanding trans-ecosystem tradeoffs due to linked-livelihood transitions as well as the need for a trans-ecosystem approach to natural resource management and development policy in rapidly changing coastal regions.

  19. Coastal livelihood transitions under globalization with implications for trans-ecosystem interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kramer, Daniel B; Stevens, Kara; Williams, Nicholas E; Sistla, Seeta A; Roddy, Adam B; Urquhart, Gerald R

    2017-01-01

    Anthropogenic threats to natural systems can be exacerbated due to connectivity between marine, freshwater, and terrestrial ecosystems, complicating the already daunting task of governance across the land-sea interface. Globalization, including new access to markets, can change social-ecological, land-sea linkages via livelihood responses and adaptations by local people. As a first step in understanding these trans-ecosystem effects, we examined exit and entry decisions of artisanal fishers and smallholder farmers on the rapidly globalizing Caribbean coast of Nicaragua. We found that exit and entry decisions demonstrated clear temporal and spatial patterns and that these decisions differed by livelihood. In addition to household characteristics, livelihood exit and entry decisions were strongly affected by new access to regional and global markets. The natural resource implications of these livelihood decisions are potentially profound as they provide novel linkages and spatially-explicit feedbacks between terrestrial and marine ecosystems. Our findings support the need for more scientific inquiry in understanding trans-ecosystem tradeoffs due to linked-livelihood transitions as well as the need for a trans-ecosystem approach to natural resource management and development policy in rapidly changing coastal regions.

  20. Global reverse supply chain design for solid waste recycling under uncertainties and carbon emission constraint.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Zhitao; Elomri, Adel; Pokharel, Shaligram; Zhang, Qin; Ming, X G; Liu, Wenjie

    2017-06-01

    The emergence of concerns over environmental protection, resource conservation as well as the development of logistics operations and manufacturing technology has led several countries to implement formal collection and recycling systems of solid waste. Such recycling system has the benefits of reducing environmental pollution, boosting the economy by creating new jobs, and generating income from trading the recyclable materials. This leads to the formation of a global reverse supply chain (GRSC) of solid waste. In this paper, we investigate the design of such a GRSC with a special emphasis on three aspects; (1) uncertainty of waste collection levels, (2) associated carbon emissions, and (3) challenges posed by the supply chain's global aspect, particularly the maritime transportation costs and currency exchange rates. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first attempt to integrate the three above-mentioned important aspects in the design of a GRSC. We have used mixed integer-linear programming method along with robust optimization to develop the model which is validated using a sample case study of e-waste management. Our results show that using a robust model by taking the complex interactions characterizing global reverse supply chain networks into account, we can create a better GRSC. The effect of uncertainties and carbon constraints on decisions to reduce costs and emissions are also shown. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990-2013

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Haidong; Liddell, Chelsea A; Coates, Matthew M

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of redu...... levels of under-5 mortality in 2030. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, US Agency for International Development....

  2. Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century under multiple climate change mitigation policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hejazi, M. I.; Edmonds, J.; Clarke, L.; Kyle, P.; Davies, E.; Chaturvedi, V.; Wise, M.; Patel, P.; Eom, J.; Calvin, K.

    2014-08-01

    Water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally are assessed in the context of climate change and climate mitigation policies, by estimating both water availability and water demand within the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community-integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. To quantify changes in future water availability, a new gridded water-balance global hydrologic model - namely, the Global Water Availability Model (GWAM) - is developed and evaluated. Global water demands for six major demand sectors (irrigation, livestock, domestic, electricity generation, primary energy production, and manufacturing) are modeled in GCAM at the regional scale (14 geopolitical regions, 151 sub-regions) and then spatially downscaled to 0.5° × 0.5° resolution to match the scale of GWAM. Using a baseline scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W m-2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) and three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W m-2 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively), we investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity. Two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. The baseline scenario results in more than half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Additionally, in years 2050 and 2095, 36% (28%) and 44% (39%) of the global population, respectively, is projected to live in grid cells (in basins) that will experience greater water demands than the amount of available water in a year (i.e., the water scarcity index (WSI) > 1.0). When comparing the climate policy scenarios to the baseline scenario while maintaining

  3. Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century under multiple climate change mitigation policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Wise, Marshall A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Katherine V.

    2014-08-01

    Water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally are assessed in the context of climate change and climate mitigation policies, by estimating both water availability and water demand within the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. To quantify changes in future water availability, a new gridded water-balance global hydrologic model – namely, the Global Water Availability Model (GWAM) – is developed and evaluated. Global water demands for six major demand sectors (irrigation, livestock, domestic, electricity generation, primary energy production, and manufacturing) are modeled in GCAM at the regional scale (14 geopolitical regions, 151 sub-regions) and then spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. Using a baseline scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) and three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively), we investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity. Two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. The baseline scenario results in more than half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Additionally, in years 2050 and 2095, 36% (28%) and 44% (39%) of the global population, respectively, is projected to live in grid cells (in basins) that will experience greater water demands than the amount of available water in a year (i.e., the water scarcity index (WSI) > 1.0). When comparing the climate policy scenarios to the baseline scenario while maintaining

  4. Changes of cooling near mesopause under global warming from observations and model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mokhov, I. I.; Semenov, A. I.; Volodin, E. M.; Dembitskaya, M. A.

    2017-07-01

    The results of joint analysis of temperature variations near mesopause from long-term measurements at the Zvenigorod Scientific Station of the Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS in 1960-2015 and variations of surface air temperature characterizing global climate change. Together with variations of temperature at the mesopause T ms from measurements of the hydroxyl emissions we analyzed the temperature variations near mesopause T m reduced to the same level of solar activity. The observed strong decrease in temperature near mesopause during last decades, particularly in winter, with its tendency to slow down since the 1980's is was detected against the background of general increase in the surface air temperature of the Northern Hemisphere T NHs and the Earth as a whole. It was revealed a sharp drop in winter temperature near mesopause in 1970s. and its synchronicity with the shift in climatic features at the surface associated with changes in formation of El Nino events and their impact on the global climate. The general significant negative correlation of temperature variations near mesopause and T NHs detected from 56-year observational data was not accompanied by any significant coherence between the most long-period temperature variations from the cross-wavelet analysis. To assess the possible manifestation of this coherence the results of numerical simulations with a global climate model were used. According to model simulations for the 20-21 centuries taking into account anthropogenic forcings for significant coherence between long-term variations T m and T NHs the prolonged observations are required for temperature near mesopause-about a century or more.

  5. Very small glaciers under climate change: from the local to the global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huss, M.; Fischer, M.

    2015-12-01

    Very small glaciers (climate archive. Very small glaciers have generally shorter response times than valley glaciers and their mass balance is strongly dependent on snow redistribution processes. Worldwide glacier monitoring has focused on medium-sized to large glaciers leaving us with a relatively limited understanding of the behavior of very small glaciers. With warming climate there is an increasing concern that very small glaciers might be the first to disappear. Already in the next decades this might result in the complete deglaciation of mountain ranges with glacier equilibrium lines close to the highest peaks, such as in the Rocky Mountains, the European Alps, the Andes or parts of High Mountain Asia. In this contribution, we present a comprehensive modelling framework to assess past and future changes in very small glaciers at the mountain-range scale. Among other processes our model accounts for snow redistribution, changes in glacier geometry and dynamic changes in debris-coverage, and computes e.g. distributed mass balance, englacial temperature and proglacial runoff. Detailed glacier projections until 2060 are shown for the Swiss Alps based on new data sets, and the 21st century contribution of all very small glaciers worldwide to sea-level rise is quantified using a global model. Grid-based modelling of surface mass balance and retreat for 1133 very small glaciers in Switzerland indicates that 70% of them will completely vanish within the next 25 years. However, a few avalanche-fed glaciers at low elevation might be able to survive even substantial atmospheric warming. We find relatively high static and dynamic sensitivities for gently-sloping glaciers. At the global scale, glaciers presently smaller than 1 km2 make up for only 0.7% of total ice volume but account for 6.7% of sea-level rise contribution during the period 2015-2025. This indicates that very small glaciers are a non-negligible component of global glacier change, at least in the near

  6. DEVELOPMENT OF CORPORATE SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY UNDER AGGRAVATION OF THE CONTEMPORARY GLOBAL ISSUES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Grazhevska

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the role and importance of corporate social responsibility as an important mechanism for overcoming the crisis of the welfare state and to mitigate the social problems caused by the world globalization processes. The experience of post-socialist countries, the Baltic States and Ukraine in this field is analyzed and barriers to effective implementation of CSR in the national economy are identified. The priority of the state policy to promote socially responsible business behavior in Ukraine is proved.

  7. Prospects of Development of the Transit Function of Georgia under the Conditions of Globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kavtaradze Medea

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of our research is to analyze the effectiveness of transit potential of Georgia forthe sustainable development of the country's economy in terms of globalization and to evaluate therole of transport infrastructure in the field of transport. The object of the research is a transitfunction, transport infrastructure and an added value in transport system. The main method of theresearch is correlation-regressive analysis, assessment of value added in transport system and itsshare determining in GDP. The conclusion of the research indicates that the development of thetransport industry will cause synergistic effect to accelerate development of other prospectivesectors.

  8. Impact of Intellectual Property in National and Business Development under the Context of the Current Globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stalin Ballesteros García

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the document is to show the impact of the intellectual property on the national and enterprise development in the globalization context since the early twenty-first century. First, it is a historical telling of the intellectual property and its role in the international society; then outlining the arguments to infer the incidence degree of the intellectual property in the economic development of countries and then discussing the inclusion impact of concepts directly related to the intellectual property in business growth activities. It concludes with a reflection on the Colombian situation, in public and private context, in terms of intellectual property.

  9. Global Combustion Mechanisms for Use in CFD Modeling under Oxy-Fuel Conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jimmy; Rasmussen, Christian Lund; Giselsson, Trine

    2009-01-01

    by the detailed mechanism as well as the correct equilibrium concentration. A CFD analysis of a propane oxy-fuel flame has been performed using both the original and modified mechanisms. Compared to the original schemes, the modified WD mechanism improved the prediction of the temperature field and of CO......Two global multistep schemes, the two-step mechanism of Westbrook and Dryer (WD) and the four-step mechanism of Jones and Lindstedt (JL), have been refined for oxy-fuel conditions. Reference calculations were conducted with a detailed chemical kinetic mechanism, validated for oxy-fuel combustion...

  10. Analysis of Under Graduated Students' Perceptions Concerning Green House Effect, Global Warming and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Oluk, Esin Akçam; Oluk, Sami

    2007-01-01

    History education coııtributes sigııifıcantly to the individuals to provide themselves a plural This study was done at the Celal Bayar Universiry, Education Faculty (Demirci-Manisa). The sample of the study included 24 students, trainning at the 7th semestry. The aim of the study was to determine the higher students perception of green house effect, global warming and climate change. Data was gathered by semi structured interview and analyzed by content analysis. Although all students said th...

  11. Multi-Model Assessment of Global Hydropower and Cooling Water Discharge Potential Under Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Vliet, M. T. H.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Eisener, S.; Wada, Y.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

    2016-01-01

    Worldwide, 98% of total electricity is currently produced by thermoelectric power and hydropower. Climate change is expected to directly impact electricity supply, in terms of both water availability for hydropower generation and cooling water usage for thermoelectric power. Improved understanding of how climate change may impact the availability and temperature of water resources is therefore of major importance. Here we use a multi-model ensemble to show the potential impacts of climate change on global hydropower and cooling water discharge potential. For the first time, combined projections of streamflow and water temperature were produced with three global hydrological models (GHMs) to account for uncertainties in the structure and parametrization of these GHMs in both water availability and water temperature. The GHMs were forced with bias-corrected output of five general circulation models (GCMs) for both the lowest and highest representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The ensemble projections of streamflow and water temperature were then used to quantify impacts on gross hydropower potential and cooling water discharge capacity of rivers worldwide. We show that global gross hydropower potential is expected to increase between +2.4% (GCM-GHM ensemble mean for RCP 2.6) and +6.3% (RCP 8.5) for the 2080s compared to 1971-2000. The strongest increases in hydropower potential are expected for Central Africa, India, central Asia and the northern high-latitudes, with 18-33% of the world population living in these areas by the 2080s. Global mean cooling water discharge capacity is projected to decrease by 4.5-15% (2080s). The largest reductions are found for the United States, Europe, eastern Asia, and southern parts of South America, Africa and Australia, where strong water temperature increases are projected combined with reductions in mean annual streamflow. These regions are expected to affect 11-14% (for RCP2.6 and the shared socioeconomic

  12. Going with the flow: the role of ocean circulation in global marine ecosystems under a changing climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Gennip, Simon J; Popova, Ekaterina E; Yool, Andrew; Pecl, Gretta T; Hobday, Alistair J; Sorte, Cascade J B

    2017-07-01

    Ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation and reduced productivity are widely considered to be the major stressors to ocean ecosystems induced by emissions of CO 2 . However, an overlooked stressor is the change in ocean circulation in response to climate change. Strong changes in the intensity and position of the western boundary currents have already been observed, and the consequences of such changes for ecosystems are beginning to emerge. In this study, we address climatically induced changes in ocean circulation on a global scale but relevant to propagule dispersal for species inhabiting global shelf ecosystems, using a high-resolution global ocean model run under the IPCC RCP 8.5 scenario. The ¼ degree model resolution allows improved regional realism of the ocean circulation beyond that of available CMIP5-class models. We use a Lagrangian approach forced by modelled ocean circulation to simulate the circulation pathways that disperse planktonic life stages. Based on trajectory backtracking, we identify present-day coastal retention, dominant flow and dispersal range for coastal regions at the global scale. Projecting into the future, we identify areas of the strongest projected circulation change and present regional examples with the most significant modifications in their dominant pathways. Climatically induced changes in ocean circulation should be considered as an additional stressor of marine ecosystems in a similar way to ocean warming or acidification. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. Global Climate Change Response Program, Water Yield in Semiarid Environment Under Projected Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    United States Department of the Interior

    1996-01-01

    This paper presents the practical application of a distributed parameter climate vegetation hydrologic model (CVHM) and its ability to simulate hydrologic response under existing conditions and under assumed CO2-induced climate and vegetation change. Applying the model to the Weber River basin provided a basis for determining the impacts of climate change on the hydrologic response. By using a "what if" scenario this model included the changes in plant transpiration rates and in vegetation ...

  14. Global Proteomics Reveal An Atypical Strategy for Carbon/Nitrogen Assimilation by a Cyanobacterium Under Diverse Environmental Perturbations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wegener, Kimberly M.; Singh, Abhay K.; Jacobs, Jon M.; Elvitigala, Thanura R.; Welsh, Eric A.; Keren, Nir S.; Gritsenko, Marina A.; Ghosh, Bijoy K.; Camp, David G.; Smith, Richard D.; Pakrasi, Himadri B.

    2010-12-01

    Cyanobacteria, the only prokaryotes capable of oxygenic photosynthesis, are present in diverse ecological niches and play crucial roles in global carbon and nitrogen cycles. To proliferate in nature, cyanobacteria utilize a host of stress responses to accommodate periodic changes in environmental conditions. A detailed knowledge of the composition of, as well as the dynamic changes in, the proteome is necessary to gain fundamental insights into such stress responses. Toward this goal, we have performed a largescale proteomic analysis of the widely studied model cyanobacterium Synechocystis sp. PCC 6803 under 33 different environmental conditions. The resulting high-quality dataset consists of 22,318 unique peptides corresponding to 1,955 proteins, a coverage of 53% of the predicted proteome. Quantitative determination of protein abundances has led to the identification of 1,198 differentially regulated proteins. Notably, our analysis revealed that a common stress response under various environmental perturbations, irrespective of amplitude and duration, is the activation of atypical pathways for the acquisition of carbon and nitrogen from urea and arginine. In particular, arginine is catabolized via putrescine to produce succinate and glutamate, sources of carbon and nitrogen, respectively. This study provides the most comprehensive functional and quantitative analysis of the Synechocystis proteome to date, and shows that a significant stress response of cyanobacteria involves an uncommon mode of acquisition of carbon and nitrogen. Oxygenic phototrophic prokaryotes, the progenitors of the chloroplast, are crucial to global oxygen production and worldwide carbon and nitrogen cycles. These microalgae are robust organisms capable carbon neutral biofuel production. Synechocystis sp. PCC 6803 has historically been a model cyanobacterium for photosynthetic research and is emerging as a promising biofuel platform. Cellular responses are severely modified by environmental

  15. Global agricultural land resources--a high resolution suitability evaluation and its perspectives until 2100 under climate change conditions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florian Zabel

    Full Text Available Changing natural conditions determine the land's suitability for agriculture. The growing demand for food, feed, fiber and bioenergy increases pressure on land and causes trade-offs between different uses of land and ecosystem services. Accordingly, an inventory is required on the changing potentially suitable areas for agriculture under changing climate conditions. We applied a fuzzy logic approach to compute global agricultural suitability to grow the 16 most important food and energy crops according to the climatic, soil and topographic conditions at a spatial resolution of 30 arc seconds. We present our results for current climate conditions (1981-2010, considering today's irrigated areas and separately investigate the suitability of densely forested as well as protected areas, in order to investigate their potentials for agriculture. The impact of climate change under SRES A1B conditions, as simulated by the global climate model ECHAM5, on agricultural suitability is shown by comparing the time-period 2071-2100 with 1981-2010. Our results show that climate change will expand suitable cropland by additionally 5.6 million km2, particularly in the Northern high latitudes (mainly in Canada, China and Russia. Most sensitive regions with decreasing suitability are found in the Global South, mainly in tropical regions, where also the suitability for multiple cropping decreases.

  16. Techniques for Analyzing the Attractiveness of International Commodity Markets Under Conditions of Economic Globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olha Pryhara

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available This article examines existing techniques and proposes its own for analyzing the attractiveness of international commodity markets in light of the globalization of world economic processes. Taking into account the supranational nature of the world economic environment when examining categories in the attractiveness of international commodity markets, the author introduces a multilevel system of indicators: market attractiveness at the mega-level – global level; market attractiveness at the macro-level national level; market attractiveness at the mezo-level – level of an individual sector. The attractiveness of international commodity markets is considered to be the degree of conformity between market environment factors and the mega-, macro- and mezo-levels of the economic interests of enterprises concerning the entry into and strategies for their activity on the international commodity markets in the short-, medium- and long-term. The author designs a stage-by-stage technique for strategically analyzing the attractiveness of international commodity markets in order to frame efficient market strategies of enterprises. Relying on the proposed techniques, she rates the integrated indicators of market accessibility and the possibility of realizing the economic interests of enterprises in target markets, bringing the index data into a matrix of «market accessibility – opportunity for realizing the economic interests of enterprises.» The analysis of a country’s position in the matrix makes it possible to frame efficient market strategies for enterprises.

  17. Shortwave and longwave radiative contributions to global warming under increasing CO2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donohoe, Aaron; Armour, Kyle C; Pendergrass, Angeline G; Battisti, David S

    2014-11-25

    In response to increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2, high-end general circulation models (GCMs) simulate an accumulation of energy at the top of the atmosphere not through a reduction in outgoing longwave radiation (OLR)—as one might expect from greenhouse gas forcing—but through an enhancement of net absorbed solar radiation (ASR). A simple linear radiative feedback framework is used to explain this counterintuitive behavior. It is found that the timescale over which OLR returns to its initial value after a CO2 perturbation depends sensitively on the magnitude of shortwave (SW) feedbacks. If SW feedbacks are sufficiently positive, OLR recovers within merely several decades, and any subsequent global energy accumulation is because of enhanced ASR only. In the GCM mean, this OLR recovery timescale is only 20 y because of robust SW water vapor and surface albedo feedbacks. However, a large spread in the net SW feedback across models (because of clouds) produces a range of OLR responses; in those few models with a weak SW feedback, OLR takes centuries to recover, and energy accumulation is dominated by reduced OLR. Observational constraints of radiative feedbacks—from satellite radiation and surface temperature data—suggest an OLR recovery timescale of decades or less, consistent with the majority of GCMs. Altogether, these results suggest that, although greenhouse gas forcing predominantly acts to reduce OLR, the resulting global warming is likely caused by enhanced ASR.

  18. Shortwave and longwave radiative contributions to global warming under increasing CO2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donohoe, Aaron; Armour, Kyle C.; Pendergrass, Angeline G.; Battisti, David S.

    2014-01-01

    In response to increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2, high-end general circulation models (GCMs) simulate an accumulation of energy at the top of the atmosphere not through a reduction in outgoing longwave radiation (OLR)—as one might expect from greenhouse gas forcing—but through an enhancement of net absorbed solar radiation (ASR). A simple linear radiative feedback framework is used to explain this counterintuitive behavior. It is found that the timescale over which OLR returns to its initial value after a CO2 perturbation depends sensitively on the magnitude of shortwave (SW) feedbacks. If SW feedbacks are sufficiently positive, OLR recovers within merely several decades, and any subsequent global energy accumulation is because of enhanced ASR only. In the GCM mean, this OLR recovery timescale is only 20 y because of robust SW water vapor and surface albedo feedbacks. However, a large spread in the net SW feedback across models (because of clouds) produces a range of OLR responses; in those few models with a weak SW feedback, OLR takes centuries to recover, and energy accumulation is dominated by reduced OLR. Observational constraints of radiative feedbacks—from satellite radiation and surface temperature data—suggest an OLR recovery timescale of decades or less, consistent with the majority of GCMs. Altogether, these results suggest that, although greenhouse gas forcing predominantly acts to reduce OLR, the resulting global warming is likely caused by enhanced ASR. PMID:25385628

  19. "Global warming, continental drying? Interpreting projected aridity changes over land under climate change"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, Alexis

    2017-04-01

    In recent years, a number of studies have suggested that, as climate warms, the land surface will globally become more arid. Such results usually rely on drought or aridity diagnostics, such as the Palmer Drought Severity Index or the Aridity Index (ratio of precipitation over potential evapotranspiration, PET), applied to climate model projections of surface climate. From a global perspective, the projected widespread drying of the land surface is generally interpreted as the result of the dominant, ubiquitous warming-induced PET increase, which overwhelms the slight overall precipitation increase projected over land. However, several lines of evidence, based on (paleo)observations and climate model projections, raise questions regarding this interpretation of terrestrial climate change. In this talk, I will review elements of the literature supporting these different perspectives, and will present recent results based on CMIP5 climate model projections regarding changes in aridity over land that shed some light on this discussion. Central to the interpretation of projected land aridity changes is the understanding of projected PET trends over land and their link with changes in other variables of the terrestrial water cycle (ET, soil moisture) and surface climate in the context of the coupled land-atmosphere system.

  20. ASSESSING GLOBAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY UNDER COLDEST AND WARMEST PERIODS AT DIFFERENT LATITUDINAL REGIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eleonora Runtunuwu

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Effect of climate change on water balance will play a key role in the biosphere system. To study the global climate change impact on water balance during 95-year period (1901-1995, long-term grid climatic data including global mean monthly temperature and precipitation at 0.5 x 0.5 degree resolution were analysed. The trend and variation of climate change, the time series of monthly air temperature and precipitation data were aggregated into annual arithmetic means for two extreme periods (1901-1920 and 1990-1995. The potential evapotranspiration (Eo was calculated using Thornthwaite method.The changes in mean annual value were obtained by subtracting the maximum period data from 1990 to 1995 (Max with the minimum period data from 1901 to 1920 (Min. The results revealed that over 95-year period, mean global air temperature increased by 0.57oC. The temperature increase varied greatly in Asia, with more than 3.0oC, especially at 45-70oN, as well over the northern part of America (60-65oN and Europe (55- 75oN. In low latitude across Asia, Africa, and South America, the variation was less than 1.5oC. In 80-85ºN region, the variation was relatively small and at higher latitudes it increasedsignificantly. Precipitation varied temporally and spatially. In the 40-45ºN and 40-45ºS regions, increasing precipitation of more than 100 mm occurred during the June-August andSeptember-November, especially in the northern hemisphere. The Eo increase of 2000 mm during 95 years occurred in the tropical northern America, middle Africa, and South-East Asia. A grid in Central Java of Indonesia showed that the Eo increase of 2500 mm during 95 years resulted in the decrease of growing period by 100 days. In coping with climate change, adjustment of cropping calendar is imperative.

  1. Benefits of economic criteria for water scarcity management under global changes: insights from a large-scale hydroeconomic framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neverre, Noémie; Dumas, Patrice; Nassopoulos, Hypatia

    2016-04-01

    Global changes are expected to exacerbate water scarcity issues in the Mediterranean region in the next decades. In this work, we investigate the impacts of reservoirs operation rules based on an economic criterion. We examine whether can they help reduce the costs of water scarcity, and whether they become more relevant under future climatic and socioeconomic conditions. We develop an original hydroeconomic model able to compare future water supply and demand on a large scale, while representing river basin heterogeneity. On the demand side, we focus on the two main sectors of water use: the irrigation and domestic sectors. Demands are projected in terms of both quantity and economic value. Irrigation requirements are computed for 12 types of crops, at the 0.5° spatial resolution, under future climatic conditions (A1B scenario). The computation of the economic benefits of irrigation water is based on a yield comparison approach between rainfed and irrigated crops. For the domestic sector, we project the combined effects of demographic growth, economic development and water cost evolution on future demands. The economic value of domestic water is defined as the economic surplus. On the supply side, we evaluate the impacts of climate change on water inflows to the reservoirs. Operating rules of the reservoirs are set up using a parameterisation-simulation-optimisation approach. The objective is to maximise water benefits. We introduce prudential parametric rules in order to take into account spatial and temporal trade-offs. The methodology is applied to Algeria at the 2050 horizon. Overall, our results show that the supply-demand imbalance and its costs will increase in most basins under future climatic and socioeconomic conditions. Our results suggest that the benefits of operating rules based on economic criteria are not unequivocally increased with global changes: in some basins the positive impact of economic prioritisation is higher under future conditions

  2. Possible shift in the ENSO-Indian monsoon rainfall relationship under future global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azad, Sarita; Rajeevan, M

    2016-02-03

    EI Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian monsoon rainfall are known to have an inverse relationship, which we have observed in the rainfall spectrum exhibiting a spectral dip in 3-5 y period band. It is well documented that El Nino events are known to be associated with deficit rainfall. Our analysis reveals that this spectral dip (3-5 y) is likely to shift to shorter periods (2.5-3 y) in future, suggesting a possible shift in the relationship between ENSO and monsoon rainfall. Spectral analysis of future climate projections by 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison project 5 (CMIP5) models are employed in order to corroborate our findings. Change in spectral dip speculates early occurrence of drought events in future due to multiple factors of global warming.

  3. Economic stagnation in the United States: underlying causes and global consequences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert A. Blecker

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyzes the causes of the slow recovery of the US economy since the financial crisis and Great Recession of 2008-9. Fallen house values and excessive household debts continue to depress consumer spending, while corporations are failing to invest in spite of record profits. The increasingly unequal distribution of income limits demand, while long-term structural transformations continue to erode employment creation. An expansionary monetary policy has been incapable of sparking a more robust recovery and fiscal policy has been shifted to an austerity stance. In this context, Brazil and other emerging market nations cannot count on the United States to continue to be the leading source of global demand as it was in previous decades.

  4. Monsoon variability in the Himalayas under the condition of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duan Keqin; Yao Tandong

    2003-01-01

    An ice core-drilling program was carried out at the accumulation area of Dasuopu glacier (28deg23'N, 85deg43'E, 7100 m a.s.l.) in the central Himalayas in 1997. The ice core was analyzed continuously for stable isotopes (δ 18 O), and major ions throughout the core. Cycles indicated by δ 18 O, cations were identified and counted as seasonal fluctuations as annual increment from maximum to maximum values. Reconstructed 300-year annual net accumulation (water equivalent) from the core, with a good correlation to Indian monsoon, reflects a major precipitation trend in the central Himalayas. The accumulation trend, separated from the time series, shows a strong negative correlation to Northern Hemisphere temperature. Generally, as northern hemisphere temperature increases 0.1degC, the accumulation decreases about 80 mm, reflecting monsoon rainfall in the central Himalayas has decreased over the past decades in the condition of global warming. (author)

  5. The Impact of the Bioeconomy on the Economic Development under the Global Crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Romeo-Victor Ionescu

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The paper is focused on the idea that bioeconomy represents a real solution to the future sustainable development. The main objectives of the paper consist of an evaluation of the bioeconomy’s impact on the global economy, followed by finding solutions for the Romanian economy. The bioeconomy is a new concept in Romania. As a result, there are just a few theoretical contributions to this topic area. This is why, we realised a pertinent analysis, in order to quantify the impact of the bioeconomy on the EU economy and to find pertinent solutions for the development of this approach in Romania. The main conclusion of the paper is that bioeconomy is a good solution for a sustainable development in Romania.

  6. Climatic changes: what if the global increase of CO(2) emissions cannot be kept under control?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castro, L A Barreto de

    2010-03-01

    Climatic changes threaten the planet. Most articles related to the subject present estimates of the disasters expected to occur, but few have proposed ways to deal with the impending menaces. One such threat is the global warming caused by the continuous increase in CO2 emissions leading to rising ocean levels due to the increasing temperatures of the polar regions. This threat is assumed to eventually cause the death of hundreds of millions of people. We propose to desalinize ocean water as a means to reduce the rise of ocean levels and to use this water for populations that need good quality potable water, precisely in the poorest regions of the planet. Technology is available in many countries to provide desalinated water at a justifiable cost considering the lives threatened both in coastal and desertified areas.

  7. Climatic changes: what if the global increase of CO2 emissions cannot be kept under control?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L.A. Barreto de Castro

    Full Text Available Climatic changes threaten the planet. Most articles related to the subject present estimates of the disasters expected to occur, but few have proposed ways to deal with the impending menaces. One such threat is the global warming caused by the continuous increase in CO2 emissions leading to rising ocean levels due to the increasing temperatures of the polar regions. This threat is assumed to eventually cause the death of hundreds of millions of people. We propose to desalinize ocean water as a means to reduce the rise of ocean levels and to use this water for populations that need good quality potable water, precisely in the poorest regions of the planet. Technology is available in many countries to provide desalinated water at a justifiable cost considering the lives threatened both in coastal and desertified areas.

  8. Climate Impacts in Europe Under +1.5°C Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacob, Daniela; Kotova, Lola; Teichmann, Claas; Sobolowski, Stefan P.; Vautard, Robert; Donnelly, Chantal; Koutroulis, Aristeidis G.; Grillakis, Manolis G.; Tsanis, Ioannis K.; Damm, Andrea; Sakalli, Abdulla; van Vliet, Michelle T. H.

    2018-02-01

    The Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change aims not only at avoiding +2°C warming (and even limit the temperature increase further to +1.5°C), but also sets long-term goals to guide mitigation. Therefore, the best available science is required to inform policymakers on the importance of and the adaptation needs in a +1.5°C warmer world. Seven research institutes from Europe and Turkey integrated their competencies to provide a cross-sectoral assessment of the potential impacts at a pan-European scale. The initial findings of this initiative are presented and key messages communicated. The approach is to select periods based on global warming thresholds rather than the more typical approach of selecting time periods (e.g., end of century). The results indicate that the world is likely to pass the +1.5°C threshold in the coming decades. Cross-sectoral dimensions are taken into account to show the impacts of global warming that occur in parallel in more than one sector. Also, impacts differ across sectors and regions. Alongside the negative impacts for certain sectors and regions, some positive impacts are projected. Summer tourism in parts of Western Europe may be favored by climate change; electricity demand decreases outweigh increases over most of Europe and catchment yields in hydropower regions will increase. However, such positive findings should be interpreted carefully as we do not take into account exogenous factors that can and will influence Europe such as migration patterns, food production, and economic and political instability.

  9. Operationalizing resilience for adaptive coral reef management under global environmental change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anthony, Kenneth R N; Marshall, Paul A; Abdulla, Ameer; Beeden, Roger; Bergh, Chris; Black, Ryan; Eakin, C Mark; Game, Edward T; Gooch, Margaret; Graham, Nicholas A J; Green, Alison; Heron, Scott F; van Hooidonk, Ruben; Knowland, Cheryl; Mangubhai, Sangeeta; Marshall, Nadine; Maynard, Jeffrey A; McGinnity, Peter; McLeod, Elizabeth; Mumby, Peter J; Nyström, Magnus; Obura, David; Oliver, Jamie; Possingham, Hugh P; Pressey, Robert L; Rowlands, Gwilym P; Tamelander, Jerker; Wachenfeld, David; Wear, Stephanie

    2015-01-01

    Cumulative pressures from global climate and ocean change combined with multiple regional and local-scale stressors pose fundamental challenges to coral reef managers worldwide. Understanding how cumulative stressors affect coral reef vulnerability is critical for successful reef conservation now and in the future. In this review, we present the case that strategically managing for increased ecological resilience (capacity for stress resistance and recovery) can reduce coral reef vulnerability (risk of net decline) up to a point. Specifically, we propose an operational framework for identifying effective management levers to enhance resilience and support management decisions that reduce reef vulnerability. Building on a system understanding of biological and ecological processes that drive resilience of coral reefs in different environmental and socio-economic settings, we present an Adaptive Resilience-Based management (ARBM) framework and suggest a set of guidelines for how and where resilience can be enhanced via management interventions. We argue that press-type stressors (pollution, sedimentation, overfishing, ocean warming and acidification) are key threats to coral reef resilience by affecting processes underpinning resistance and recovery, while pulse-type (acute) stressors (e.g. storms, bleaching events, crown-of-thorns starfish outbreaks) increase the demand for resilience. We apply the framework to a set of example problems for Caribbean and Indo-Pacific reefs. A combined strategy of active risk reduction and resilience support is needed, informed by key management objectives, knowledge of reef ecosystem processes and consideration of environmental and social drivers. As climate change and ocean acidification erode the resilience and increase the vulnerability of coral reefs globally, successful adaptive management of coral reefs will become increasingly difficult. Given limited resources, on-the-ground solutions are likely to focus increasingly on

  10. Global determinants of mortality in under 5s: 10 year worldwide longitudinal study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanf, Matthieu; Nacher, Mathieu; Guihenneuc, Chantal; Tubert-Bitter, Pascale; Chavance, Michel

    2013-11-08

    To assess at country level the association of mortality in under 5s with a large set of determinants. Longitudinal study. 193 United Nations member countries, 2000-09. Yearly data between 2000 and 2009 based on 12 world development indicators were used in a multivariable general additive mixed model allowing for non-linear relations and lag effects. National rate of deaths in under 5s per 1000 live births The model retained the variables: gross domestic product per capita; percentage of the population having access to improved water sources, having access to improved sanitation facilities, and living in urban areas; adolescent fertility rate; public health expenditure per capita; prevalence of HIV; perceived level of corruption and of violence; and mean number of years in school for women of reproductive age. Most of these variables exhibited non-linear behaviours and lag effects. By providing a unified framework for mortality in under 5s, encompassing both high and low income countries this study showed non-linear behaviours and lag effects of known or suspected determinants of mortality in this age group. Although some of the determinants presented a linear action on log mortality indicating that whatever the context, acting on them would be a pertinent strategy to effectively reduce mortality, others had a threshold based relation potentially mediated by lag effects. These findings could help designing efficient strategies to achieve maximum progress towards millennium development goal 4, which aims to reduce mortality in under 5s by two thirds between 1990 and 2015.

  11. A Global Chance-Constraint for Stochastic Inventory Systems under Service Level Constraints

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rossi, R.; Tarim, S.A.; Hnich, B.; Prestwich, S.

    2008-01-01

    We consider a class of production/inventory control problems that has a single product and a single stocking location, for which a stochastic demand with a known non-stationary probability distribution is given. Under the widely-known replenishment cycle policy the problem of computing policy

  12. Water scarcity under scenarios for global climate change and regional development in semiarid Northeastern Brazil

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Araújo, José Carlos; Döll, Petra; Güntner, Andreas; Krol, Martinus S.; Rodrigues Abreu, Cláudia Beghini; Hauschild, Maike; Mendiondo, Eduardo Mario

    2004-01-01

    The State of Ceará, located in semiarid Northeastern Brazil, suffers under irregularly recurring droughts that go along with water scarcity. Structural policies to control and reduce water scarcity, as water supply and demand management, should be seen as long-term planning, and thus have to

  13. Increased evapotranspiration demand in a Mediterranean climate might cause a decline in fungal yields under global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ágreda, Teresa; Águeda, Beatriz; Olano, José M; Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M; Fernández-Toirán, Marina

    2015-09-01

    Wild fungi play a critical role in forest ecosystems, and its recollection is a relevant economic activity. Understanding fungal response to climate is necessary in order to predict future fungal production in Mediterranean forests under climate change scenarios. We used a 15-year data set to model the relationship between climate and epigeous fungal abundance and productivity, for mycorrhizal and saprotrophic guilds in a Mediterranean pine forest. The obtained models were used to predict fungal productivity for the 2021-2080 period by means of regional climate change models. Simple models based on early spring temperature and summer-autumn rainfall could provide accurate estimates for fungal abundance and productivity. Models including rainfall and climatic water balance showed similar results and explanatory power for the analyzed 15-year period. However, their predictions for the 2021-2080 period diverged. Rainfall-based models predicted a maintenance of fungal yield, whereas water balance-based models predicted a steady decrease of fungal productivity under a global warming scenario. Under Mediterranean conditions fungi responded to weather conditions in two distinct periods: early spring and late summer-autumn, suggesting a bimodal pattern of growth. Saprotrophic and mycorrhizal fungi showed differences in the climatic control. Increased atmospheric evaporative demand due to global warming might lead to a drop in fungal yields during the 21st century. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Increasing potential risk of a global aquatic invader in Europe in contrast to other continents under future climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xuan; Guo, Zhongwei; Ke, Zunwei; Wang, Supen; Li, Yiming

    2011-03-30

    Anthropogenically-induced climate change can alter the current climatic habitat of non-native species and can have complex effects on potentially invasive species. Predictions of the potential distributions of invasive species under climate change will provide critical information for future conservation and management strategies. Aquatic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to invasive species and climate change, but the effect of climate change on invasive species distributions has been rather neglected, especially for notorious global invaders. We used ecological niche models (ENMs) to assess the risks and opportunities that climate change presents for the red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii), which is a worldwide aquatic invasive species. Linking the factors of climate, topography, habitat and human influence, we developed predictive models incorporating both native and non-native distribution data of the crayfish to identify present areas of potential distribution and project the effects of future climate change based on a consensus-forecast approach combining the CCCMA and HADCM3 climate models under two emission scenarios (A2a and B2a) by 2050. The minimum temperature from the coldest month, the human footprint and precipitation of the driest quarter contributed most to the species distribution models. Under both the A2a and B2a scenarios, P. clarkii shifted to higher latitudes in continents of both the northern and southern hemispheres. However, the effect of climate change varied considerately among continents with an expanding potential in Europe and contracting changes in others. Our findings are the first to predict the impact of climate change on the future distribution of a globally invasive aquatic species. We confirmed the complexities of the likely effects of climate change on the potential distribution of globally invasive species, and it is extremely important to develop wide-ranging and effective control measures according to predicted

  15. Analysis of International Monetary Fund under conditions of globalization of economic processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V.V. Ksendzuk

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Globalization in the economy requires proper management of countries' financial resources as the regulation of international financial market is one of the most important tasks of the successful development of the world economy and individual national economies. The International Monetary Fund since the beginning of its creation was intended to regulate the financial situation in the post-war period in world space. In present conditions of information development of the world economic system the role and importance of international financial institutions are changing. Thus, the policies and activities of the IMF are increasingly criticized, that is substantiated and requires some restructuring and reforming areas of the Fund activity. During the research the basic aspects of IMF activities in 2015 have been analyzed and the suggestions for its further effective development have been presented. In particular, it is advisable to use the specific individual approach to the problems of particular economies and to view the sizes of quotas and their functional purposes that will allow to develop new funding mechanisms that are based on social and ecological needs of society. This, in turn, will reduce the impact of developed countries on the activities of the financial institution

  16. Increasing potential for intense tropical and subtropical thunderstorms under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Martin S.; Kuang, Zhiming; Maloney, Eric D.; Hannah, Walter M.; Wolding, Brandon O.

    2017-10-01

    Intense thunderstorms produce rapid cloud updrafts and may be associated with a range of destructive weather events. An important ingredient in measures of the potential for intense thunderstorms is the convective available potential energy (CAPE). Climate models project increases in summertime mean CAPE in the tropics and subtropics in response to global warming, but the physical mechanisms responsible for such increases and the implications for future thunderstorm activity remain uncertain. Here, we show that high percentiles of the CAPE distribution (CAPE extremes) also increase robustly with warming across the tropics and subtropics in an ensemble of state-of-the-art climate models, implying strong increases in the frequency of occurrence of environments conducive to intense thunderstorms in future climate projections. The increase in CAPE extremes is consistent with a recently proposed theoretical model in which CAPE depends on the influence of convective entrainment on the tropospheric lapse rate, and we demonstrate the importance of this influence for simulated CAPE extremes using a climate model in which the convective entrainment rate is varied. We further show that the theoretical model is able to account for the climatological relationship between CAPE and a measure of lower-tropospheric humidity in simulations and in observations. Our results provide a physical basis on which to understand projected future increases in intense thunderstorm potential, and they suggest that an important mechanism that contributes to such increases may be present in Earth's atmosphere.

  17. Avoiding a crisis of motivation for ocean management under global environmental change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mumby, Peter J; Sanchirico, James N; Broad, Kenneth; Beck, Michael W; Tyedmers, Peter; Morikawa, Megan; Okey, Thomas A; Crowder, Larry B; Fulton, Elizabeth A; Kelso, Denny; Kleypas, Joanie A; Munch, Stephan B; Glynn, Polita; Matthews, Kathryn; Lubchenco, Jane

    2017-11-01

    Climate change and ocean acidification are altering marine ecosystems and, from a human perspective, creating both winners and losers. Human responses to these changes are complex, but may result in reduced government investments in regulation, resource management, monitoring and enforcement. Moreover, a lack of peoples' experience of climate change may drive some towards attributing the symptoms of climate change to more familiar causes such as management failure. Taken together, we anticipate that management could become weaker and less effective as climate change continues. Using diverse case studies, including the decline of coral reefs, coastal defences from flooding, shifting fish stocks and the emergence of new shipping opportunities in the Arctic, we argue that human interests are better served by increased investments in resource management. But greater government investment in management does not simply mean more of "business-as-usual." Management needs to become more flexible, better at anticipating and responding to surprise, and able to facilitate change where it is desirable. A range of technological, economic, communication and governance solutions exists to help transform management. While not all have been tested, judicious application of the most appropriate solutions should help humanity adapt to novel circumstances and seek opportunity where possible. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. Elucidating the global elapid (Squamata) richness pattern under metabolic theory of ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braga, Rosana Talita; Oliveira de Grande, Thallita; de Souza Barreto, Bruno; Felizola Diniz-Filho, José Alexandre; Terribile, Levi Carina

    2014-04-01

    Environmental determinants of global patterns in species richness are still uncertain. The Metabolic Theory of Ecology (MTE) proposes that species richness patterns can be explained by environmental temperature acting on the metabolism of ectothermic organisms. However, the generality of this theory has been questioned due to its low fit to the geographic variation in species richness of different taxonomic groups. Here, we investigated whether the MTE drives elapid richness, testing the non-stationarity of the relationship between the natural logarithm of species richness (ln S) and the inverse function of temperature (1/kT) using a geographically weighted regression (GWR). The relationship between ln S and 1/kT varied systematically over space and showed non-stationarity. Few tropical locations were consistent with MTE predictions, whereas other regions fitted differently. Although the slope of the GWR model ranged from low to high, the temperature did not predict species richness strongly on average and did not limit the upper values of richness. The response of richness to temperature in some areas might reflect a recent history of colonization and diversification of species across tropical and subtropical regions. In regions not affected by temperature, species richness should be structured by other biotic and abiotic interactions. This scenario reveals that the non-stationarity of the relationship would be linked to idiosyncrasies in the sample sites, which can drift the magnitude or change the relationship between species richness and temperature throughout space.

  19. Financial Stabilisation of Global Economy Countries under Conditions of the Debt Crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vovchenko Natalia G.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available European crisis hinders global restoration of economy, the growth of restoration slows down. All these require supranational solutions: creatio9n of regulation structures and new financial instruments in order to preserve stable world financial order. Methods of quantitative easing (QE, carried out by the American Federal Reserve System and Bank of England, aim at stimulation of private sector activity through reduction of loan cost, generation of positive effects of well-being and increase of investment income. Purchase of assets efficiently move dangerous financial assets from private sector to the balance of the central bank or special QE fund in exchange to risk free reserves of the central bank. Thus, both types of measures are performed by means of risks, accumulating on balances of central banks and indirectly on the balance of state administration. Exchange of information between relevant agencies, including debt administration office, state enterprises that administer assets and central bank, is important for efficient administration of all state assets and liabilities. Proper assessment of financial positions requires all-sided and transparent reporting of all state liabilities and assets. Besides, financial transparency facilitates consolidation.

  20. Reaching Non-Traditional and Under-Served Communities through Global Astronomy Month Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simmons, Michael

    2013-01-01

    Global Astronomy Month (GAM), organized each year by Astronomers Without Borders (AWB), has become the world's largest annual celebration of astronomy. Launched as a follow-up to the unprecedented success of the 100 Hours of Astronomy Cornerstone Project of IYA2009, GAM quickly attracted not only traditional partners in astronomy and space science outreach, but also unusual partners from very different fields. GAM's third annual edition, GAM2012, included worldwide programs for the sight-impaired, astronomy in the arts, and other non-traditional programs. The special planetarium program, OPTICKS, combined elements such as Moonbounce (sending images to the Moon and back) and artistic elements in a unique presentation of the heavens. Programs were developed to present the heavens to the sight-impaired as well. The Cosmic Concert, in which a new musical piece is composed each year, combined with background images of celestial objects, and presented during GAM, has become an annual event. Several astronomy themed art video projects were presented online. AWB's Astropoetry Blog held a very successful contest during GAM2012 that attracted more than 70 entries from 17 countries. Students were engaged by participation in special GAM campaigns of the International Asteroid Search Campaign. AWB and GAM have both developed into platforms where innovative programs can develop, and interdisciplinary collaborations can flourish. As AWB's largest program, GAM brings the audience and resources that provide a boost for these new types of programs. Examples, lessons learned, new projects, and plans for the future of AWB and GAM will be presented.

  1. Global Sensitivity Analysis for Identifying Important Parameters of Nitrogen Nitrification and Denitrification under Model and Scenario Uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, M.; Chen, Z.; Shi, L.; Zhu, Y.; Yang, J.

    2017-12-01

    Nitrogen reactive transport modeling is subject to uncertainty in model parameters, structures, and scenarios. While global sensitivity analysis is a vital tool for identifying the parameters important to nitrogen reactive transport, conventional global sensitivity analysis only considers parametric uncertainty. This may result in inaccurate selection of important parameters, because parameter importance may vary under different models and modeling scenarios. By using a recently developed variance-based global sensitivity analysis method, this paper identifies important parameters with simultaneous consideration of parametric uncertainty, model uncertainty, and scenario uncertainty. In a numerical example of nitrogen reactive transport modeling, a combination of three scenarios of soil temperature and two scenarios of soil moisture leads to a total of six scenarios. Four alternative models are used to evaluate reduction functions used for calculating actual rates of nitrification and denitrification. The model uncertainty is tangled with scenario uncertainty, as the reduction functions depend on soil temperature and moisture content. The results of sensitivity analysis show that parameter importance varies substantially between different models and modeling scenarios, which may lead to inaccurate selection of important parameters if model and scenario uncertainties are not considered. This problem is avoided by using the new method of sensitivity analysis in the context of model averaging and scenario averaging. The new method of sensitivity analysis can be applied to other problems of contaminant transport modeling when model uncertainty and/or scenario uncertainty are present.

  2. Global coastal wetland change under sea-level rise and related stresses: The DIVA Wetland Change Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spencer, Thomas; Schuerch, Mark; Nicholls, Robert J.; Hinkel, Jochen; Lincke, Daniel; Vafeidis, A. T.; Reef, Ruth; McFadden, Loraine; Brown, Sally

    2016-04-01

    The Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment Wetland Change Model (DIVA_WCM) comprises a dataset of contemporary global coastal wetland stocks (estimated at 756 × 103 km2 (in 2011)), mapped to a one-dimensional global database, and a model of the macro-scale controls on wetland response to sea-level rise. Three key drivers of wetland response to sea-level rise are considered: 1) rate of sea-level rise relative to tidal range; 2) lateral accommodation space; and 3) sediment supply. The model is tuned by expert knowledge, parameterised with quantitative data where possible, and validated against mapping associated with two large-scale mangrove and saltmarsh vulnerability studies. It is applied across 12,148 coastal segments (mean length 85 km) to the year 2100. The model provides better-informed macro-scale projections of likely patterns of future coastal wetland losses across a range of sea-level rise scenarios and varying assumptions about the construction of coastal dikes to prevent sea flooding (as dikes limit lateral accommodation space and cause coastal squeeze). With 50 cm of sea-level rise by 2100, the model predicts a loss of 46-59% of global coastal wetland stocks. A global coastal wetland loss of 78% is estimated under high sea-level rise (110 cm by 2100) accompanied by maximum dike construction. The primary driver for high vulnerability of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise is coastal squeeze, a consequence of long-term coastal protection strategies. Under low sea-level rise (29 cm by 2100) losses do not exceed ca. 50% of the total stock, even for the same adverse dike construction assumptions. The model results confirm that the widespread paradigm that wetlands subject to a micro-tidal regime are likely to be more vulnerable to loss than macro-tidal environments. Countering these potential losses will require both climate mitigation (a global response) to minimise sea-level rise and maximisation of accommodation space and sediment supply (a regional

  3. Deconvolving temperature and substrate effects on soil heterotrophic respiration under multiple global change factors in mixed grass prairie

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tucker, C.; Nie, M.; Pendall, E. G.

    2013-12-01

    in temperature sensitivity of SOM decomposition. Overall, the temperature sensitivity of the fast pool was highly sensitive to global change factors and their interactions. On the other hand, there were no differences in temperature sensitivity of the slow pool in response to the global change factors. Similarly, the base rate of the fast pool was sensitive to the global change factors, while the slow pool base rate was not. However, the overall size of the slow pool was significantly affected by the global change factors. Vegetation removal reduced the slow pool by ~19% across all warming x CO2 treatments. This effect was greatest under elevated CO2 (both warmed and control), but non-significant under ambient CO2 and temperature. Importantly, effects mediated through the vegetation were the primary factor determining whether slow pool C was gained or lost under elevated CO2 and warming. Our data-model fusion approach allowed us to deconvolve the effect of reduced substrate availability from temperature sensitivity, and to demonstrate that global change may lead to strong positive C cycling feedbacks.

  4. Global Analysis of Response in the Piezomagnetoelastic Energy Harvester System under Harmonic and Poisson White Noise Excitations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yue, Xiao-Le; Xu, Wei; Zhang, Ying; Wang, Liang

    2015-10-01

    The piezomagnetoelastic energy harvester system subjected to harmonic and Poisson white noise excitations is studied by using the generalized cell mapping method. The transient and stationary probability density functions (PDFs) of response based on the global viewpoint are obtained by the matrix analysis method. Monte Carlo simulation results verify the accuracy of this method. It can be observed that evolutionary direction of transient and stationary PDFs is in accordance with the unstable manifold for this system, and a stochastic P-bifurcation occurs as the intensity of Poisson white noise increases. This study presents an efficient numerical tool to solve the stochastic response of a three-dimensional dynamical system and provides a new idea to analyze the energy harvester system. Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos. 11302170, 11202160, 11302171, and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities under Grant No. 3102014JCQ01079

  5. Warming up, turning sour, losing breath: ocean biogeochemistry under global change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gruber, Nicolas

    2011-05-28

    In the coming decades and centuries, the ocean's biogeochemical cycles and ecosystems will become increasingly stressed by at least three independent factors. Rising temperatures, ocean acidification and ocean deoxygenation will cause substantial changes in the physical, chemical and biological environment, which will then affect the ocean's biogeochemical cycles and ecosystems in ways that we are only beginning to fathom. Ocean warming will not only affect organisms and biogeochemical cycles directly, but will also increase upper ocean stratification. The changes in the ocean's carbonate chemistry induced by the uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO(2)) (i.e. ocean acidification) will probably affect many organisms and processes, although in ways that are currently not well understood. Ocean deoxygenation, i.e. the loss of dissolved oxygen (O(2)) from the ocean, is bound to occur in a warming and more stratified ocean, causing stress to macro-organisms that critically depend on sufficient levels of oxygen. These three stressors-warming, acidification and deoxygenation-will tend to operate globally, although with distinct regional differences. The impacts of ocean acidification tend to be strongest in the high latitudes, whereas the low-oxygen regions of the low latitudes are most vulnerable to ocean deoxygenation. Specific regions, such as the eastern boundary upwelling systems, will be strongly affected by all three stressors, making them potential hotspots for change. Of additional concern are synergistic effects, such as ocean acidification-induced changes in the type and magnitude of the organic matter exported to the ocean's interior, which then might cause substantial changes in the oxygen concentration there. Ocean warming, acidification and deoxygenation are essentially irreversible on centennial time scales, i.e. once these changes have occurred, it will take centuries for the ocean to recover. With the emission of CO(2) being the primary driver

  6. Global dysrhythmia of cerebro-basal ganglia-cerebellar networks underlies motor tics following striatal disinhibition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCairn, Kevin W; Iriki, Atsushi; Isoda, Masaki

    2013-01-09

    Motor tics, a cardinal symptom of Tourette syndrome (TS), are hypothesized to arise from abnormalities within cerebro-basal ganglia circuits. Yet noninvasive neuroimaging of TS has previously identified robust activation in the cerebellum. To date, electrophysiological properties of cerebellar activation and its role in basal ganglia-mediated tic expression remain unknown. We performed multisite, multielectrode recordings of single-unit activity and local field potentials from the cerebellum, basal ganglia, and primary motor cortex using a pharmacologic monkey model of motor tics/TS. Following microinjections of bicuculline into the sensorimotor putamen, periodic tics occurred predominantly in the orofacial region, and a sizable number of cerebellar neurons showed phasic changes in activity associated with tic episodes. Specifically, 64% of the recorded cerebellar cortex neurons exhibited increases in activity, and 85% of the dentate nucleus neurons displayed excitatory, inhibitory, or multiphasic responses. Critically, abnormal discharges of cerebellar cortex neurons and excitatory-type dentate neurons mostly preceded behavioral tic onset, indicating their central origins. Latencies of pathological activity in the cerebellum and primary motor cortex substantially overlapped, suggesting that aberrant signals may be traveling along divergent pathways to these structures from the basal ganglia. Furthermore, the occurrence of tic movement was most closely associated with local field potential spikes in the cerebellum and primary motor cortex, implying that these structures may function as a gate to release overt tic movements. These findings indicate that tic-generating networks in basal ganglia mediated tic disorders extend beyond classical cerebro-basal ganglia circuits, leading to global network dysrhythmia including cerebellar circuits.

  7. Predicting River Macroinvertebrate Communities Distributional Shifts under Future Global Change Scenarios in the Spanish Mediterranean Area.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javier Alba-Tercedor

    Full Text Available Several studies on global change over the next century predict increases in mean air temperatures of between 1°C to 5°C that would affect not only water temperature but also river flow. Climate is the predominant environmental driver of thermal and flow regimes of freshwater ecosystems, determining survival, growth, metabolism, phenology and behaviour as well as biotic interactions of aquatic fauna. Thus, these changes would also have consequences for species phenology, their distribution range, and the composition and dynamics of communities. These effects are expected to be especially severe in the Mediterranean basin due its particular climate conditions, seriously threatening Southern European ecosystems. In addition, species with restricted distributions and narrow ecological requirements, such as those living in the headwaters of rivers, will be severely affected. The study area corresponds to the Spanish Mediterranean and Balearic Islands, delimited by the Köppen climate boundary. With the application of the MEDPACS (MEDiterranean Prediction And Classification System predictive approach, the macroinvertebrate community was predicted for current conditions and compared with three posible scenarios of watertemperature increase and its associated water flow reductions. The results indicate that the aquatic macroinvertebrate communities will undergo a drastic impact, with reductions in taxa richness for each scenario in relation to simulated current conditions, accompanied by changes in the taxa distribution pattern. Accordingly, the distribution area of most of the taxa (65.96% inhabiting the mid-high elevations would contract and rise in altitude. Thus, families containing a great number of generalist species will move upstream to colonize new zones with lower water temperatures. By contrast, more vulnerable taxa will undergo reductions in their distribution area.

  8. Projected Irrigation Requirement Under Climate Change in Korean Peninsula by Apply Global Hydrologic Model to Local Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, B.; Lee, D. K.

    2016-12-01

    Understanding spatial distribution of irrigation requirement is critically important for agricultural water management. However, many studies considering future agricultural water management in Korea assessed irrigation requirement on watershed or administrative district scale, but have not accounted the spatial distribution. Lumped hydrologic model has typically used in Korea for simulating watershed scale irrigation requirement, while distribution hydrologic model can simulate the spatial distribution grid by grid. To overcome this shortcoming, here we applied a grid base global hydrologic model (H08) into local scale to estimate spatial distribution under future irrigation requirement of Korean Peninsula. Korea is one of the world's most densely populated countries, with also high produce and demand of rice which requires higher soil moisture than other crops. Although, most of the precipitation concentrate in particular season and disagree with crop growth season. This precipitation character makes management of agricultural water which is approximately 60% of total water usage critical issue in Korea. Furthermore, under future climate change, the precipitation predicted to be more concentrated and necessary need change of future water management plan. In order to apply global hydrological model into local scale, we selected appropriate major crops under social and local climate condition in Korea to estimate cropping area and yield, and revised the cropping area map more accurately. As a result, future irrigation requirement estimation varies under each projection, however, slightly decreased in most case. The simulation reveals, evapotranspiration increase slightly while effective precipitation also increase to balance the irrigation requirement. This finding suggest practical guideline to decision makers for further agricultural water management plan including future development of water supply plan to resolve water scarcity.

  9. Global sensitivity analysis for an integrated model for simulation of nitrogen dynamics under the irrigation with treated wastewater.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Huaiwei; Zhu, Yan; Yang, Jinzhong; Wang, Xiugui

    2015-11-01

    As the amount of water resources that can be utilized for agricultural production is limited, the reuse of treated wastewater (TWW) for irrigation is a practical solution to alleviate the water crisis in China. The process-based models, which estimate nitrogen dynamics under irrigation, are widely used to investigate the best irrigation and fertilization management practices in developed and developing countries. However, for modeling such a complex system for wastewater reuse, it is critical to conduct a sensitivity analysis to determine numerous input parameters and their interactions that contribute most to the variance of the model output for the development of process-based model. In this study, application of a comprehensive global sensitivity analysis for nitrogen dynamics was reported. The objective was to compare different global sensitivity analysis (GSA) on the key parameters for different model predictions of nitrogen and crop growth modules. The analysis was performed as two steps. Firstly, Morris screening method, which is one of the most commonly used screening method, was carried out to select the top affected parameters; then, a variance-based global sensitivity analysis method (extended Fourier amplitude sensitivity test, EFAST) was used to investigate more thoroughly the effects of selected parameters on model predictions. The results of GSA showed that strong parameter interactions exist in crop nitrogen uptake, nitrogen denitrification, crop yield, and evapotranspiration modules. Among all parameters, one of the soil physical-related parameters named as the van Genuchten air entry parameter showed the largest sensitivity effects on major model predictions. These results verified that more effort should be focused on quantifying soil parameters for more accurate model predictions in nitrogen- and crop-related predictions, and stress the need to better calibrate the model in a global sense. This study demonstrates the advantages of the GSA on a

  10. China's role as a global health donor in Africa: what can we learn from studying under reported resource flows?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grépin, Karen A; Fan, Victoria Y; Shen, Gordon C; Chen, Lucy

    2014-12-30

    There is a growing recognition of China's role as a global health donor, in particular in Africa, but there have been few systematic studies of the level, destination, trends, or composition of these development finance flows or a comparison of China's engagement as a donor with that of more traditional global health donors. Using newly released data from AidData on China's development finance activities in Africa, developed to track under reported resource flows, we identified 255 health, population, water, and sanitation (HPWS) projects from 2000-2012, which we descriptively analyze by activity sector, recipient country, project type, and planned activity. We compare China's activities to projects from traditional donors using data from the OECD's Development Assistance Committee (DAC) Creditor Reporting System. Since 2000, China increased the number of HPWS projects it supported in Africa and health has increased as a development priority for China. China's contributions are large, ranking it among the top 10 bilateral global health donors to Africa. Over 50% of the HPWS projects target infrastructure, 40% target human resource development, and the provision of equipment and drugs is also common. Malaria is an important disease priority but HIV is not. We find little evidence that China targets health aid preferentially to natural resource rich countries. China is an important global health donor to Africa but contrasts with traditional DAC donors through China's focus on health system inputs and on malaria. Although better data are needed, particularly through more transparent aid data reporting across ministries and agencies, China's approach to South-South cooperation represents an important and distinct source of financial assistance for health in Africa.

  11. The roles of dispersal, fecundity, and predation in the population persistence of an oak (Quercus engelmannii) under global change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conlisk, Erin; Lawson, Dawn; Syphard, Alexandra D; Franklin, Janet; Flint, Lorraine; Flint, Alan; Regan, Helen M

    2012-01-01

    A species' response to climate change depends on the interaction of biotic and abiotic factors that define future habitat suitability and species' ability to migrate or adapt. The interactive effects of processes such as fire, dispersal, and predation have not been thoroughly addressed in the climate change literature. Our objective was to examine how life history traits, short-term global change perturbations, and long-term climate change interact to affect the likely persistence of an oak species--Quercus engelmannii (Engelmann oak). Specifically, we combined dynamic species distribution models, which predict suitable habitat, with stochastic, stage-based metapopulation models, which project population trajectories, to evaluate the effects of three global change factors--climate change, land use change, and altered fire frequency--emphasizing the roles of dispersal and seed predation. Our model predicted dramatic reduction in Q. engelmannii abundance, especially under drier climates and increased fire frequency. When masting lowers seed predation rates, decreased masting frequency leads to large abundance decreases. Current rates of dispersal are not likely to prevent these effects, although increased dispersal could mitigate population declines. The results suggest that habitat suitability predictions by themselves may under-estimate the impact of climate change for other species and locations.

  12. The roles of dispersal, fecundity, and predation in the population persistence of an oak (Quercus engelmannii under global change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erin Conlisk

    Full Text Available A species' response to climate change depends on the interaction of biotic and abiotic factors that define future habitat suitability and species' ability to migrate or adapt. The interactive effects of processes such as fire, dispersal, and predation have not been thoroughly addressed in the climate change literature. Our objective was to examine how life history traits, short-term global change perturbations, and long-term climate change interact to affect the likely persistence of an oak species--Quercus engelmannii (Engelmann oak. Specifically, we combined dynamic species distribution models, which predict suitable habitat, with stochastic, stage-based metapopulation models, which project population trajectories, to evaluate the effects of three global change factors--climate change, land use change, and altered fire frequency--emphasizing the roles of dispersal and seed predation. Our model predicted dramatic reduction in Q. engelmannii abundance, especially under drier climates and increased fire frequency. When masting lowers seed predation rates, decreased masting frequency leads to large abundance decreases. Current rates of dispersal are not likely to prevent these effects, although increased dispersal could mitigate population declines. The results suggest that habitat suitability predictions by themselves may under-estimate the impact of climate change for other species and locations.

  13. Changes of the potential distribution area of French Mediterranean forests under global warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Gaucherel

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available This work aims at understanding future spatial and temporal distributions of tree species in the Mediterranean region of France under various climates. We focused on two different species (Pinus Halepensis and Quercus Ilex and compared their growth under the IPCC-B2 climate scenario in order to quantify significant changes between present and future. The influence of environmental factors such as atmospheric CO2 increase and topography on the tree growth has also been quantified.

    We modeled species growth with the help of a process-based model (MAIDEN, previously calibrated over measured ecophysiological and dendrochronological series with a Bayesian scheme. The model was fed with the ARPEGE – MeteoFrance climate model, combined with an explicit increase in CO2 atmospheric concentration. The main output of the model gives the carbon allocation in boles and thus tree production.

    Our results show that the MAIDEN model is correctly able to simulate pine and oak production in space and time, after detailed calibration and validation stages. Yet, these simulations, mainly based on climate, are indicative and not predictive. The comparison of simulated growth at end of 20th and 21st centuries, show a shift of the pine production optimum from about 650 to 950 m due to 2.5 K temperature increase, while no optimum has been found for oak. With the direct effect of CO2 increase taken into account, both species show a significant increase in productivity (+26 and +43% for pine and oak respectively at the end of the 21st century.

    While both species have different growth mechanisms, they have a good chance to extend their spatial distribution and their elevation in the Alps during the 21st century under the IPCC-B2 climate scenario. This extension is mainly due to the CO2 fertilization effect.

  14. Global and regional health effects of future food production under climate change: a modelling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Springmann, Marco; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Robinson, Sherman; Garnett, Tara; Godfray, H Charles J; Gollin, Douglas; Rayner, Mike; Ballon, Paola; Scarborough, Peter

    2016-05-07

    One of the most important consequences of climate change could be its effects on agriculture. Although much research has focused on questions of food security, less has been devoted to assessing the wider health impacts of future changes in agricultural production. In this modelling study, we estimate excess mortality attributable to agriculturally mediated changes in dietary and weight-related risk factors by cause of death for 155 world regions in the year 2050. For this modelling study, we linked a detailed agricultural modelling framework, the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT), to a comparative risk assessment of changes in fruit and vegetable consumption, red meat consumption, and bodyweight for deaths from coronary heart disease, stroke, cancer, and an aggregate of other causes. We calculated the change in the number of deaths attributable to climate-related changes in weight and diets for the combination of four emissions pathways (a high emissions pathway, two medium emissions pathways, and a low emissions pathway) and three socioeconomic pathways (sustainable development, middle of the road, and more fragmented development), which each included six scenarios with variable climatic inputs. The model projects that by 2050, climate change will lead to per-person reductions of 3·2% (SD 0·4%) in global food availability, 4·0% (0·7%) in fruit and vegetable consumption, and 0·7% (0·1%) in red meat consumption. These changes will be associated with 529,000 climate-related deaths worldwide (95% CI 314,000-736,000), representing a 28% (95% CI 26-33) reduction in the number of deaths that would be avoided because of changes in dietary and weight-related risk factors between 2010 and 2050. Twice as many climate-related deaths were associated with reductions in fruit and vegetable consumption than with climate-related increases in the prevalence of underweight, and most climate-related deaths were projected to

  15. Management strategies for coral reefs and people under global environmental change: 25 years of scientific research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comte, Adrien; Pendleton, Linwood H

    2018-03-01

    Coral reef ecosystems and the people who depend on them are increasingly exposed to the adverse effects of global environmental change (GEC), including increases in sea-surface temperature and ocean acidification. Managers and decision-makers need a better understanding of the options available for action in the face of these changes. We refine a typology of actions developed by Gattuso et al. (2015) that could serve in prioritizing strategies to deal with the impacts of GEC on reefs and people. Using the typology we refined, we investigate the scientific effort devoted to four types of management strategies: mitigate, protect, repair, adapt that we tie to the components of the chain of impact they affect: ecological vulnerability or social vulnerability. A systematic literature review is used to investigate quantitatively how scientific effort over the past 25 years is responding to the challenge posed by GEC on coral reefs and to identify gaps in research. A growing literature has focused on these impacts and on management strategies to sustain coral reef social-ecological systems. We identify 767 peer reviewed articles published between 1990 and 2016 that address coral reef management in the context of GEC. The rate of publication of such studies has increased over the years, following the general trend in climate research. The literature focuses on protect strategies the most, followed by mitigate and adapt strategies, and finally repair strategies. Developed countries, particularly Australia and the United States, are over-represented as authors and locations of case studies across all types of management strategies. Authors affiliated in developed countries play a major role in investigating case studies across the globe. The majority of articles focus on only one of the four categories of actions. A gap analysis reveals three directions for future research: (1) more research is needed in South-East Asia and other developing countries where the impacts of

  16. Cattle and Nematodes Under Global Change: Transmission Models as an Ally.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verschave, Sien H; Charlier, Johannes; Rose, Hannah; Claerebout, Edwin; Morgan, Eric R

    2016-09-01

    Nematode infections are an important economic constraint to cattle farming. Future risk levels and transmission dynamics will be affected by changes in climate and farm management. The prospect of altered parasite epidemiology in combination with anthelmintic resistance requires the adaptation of current control approaches. Mathematical models that simulate disease dynamics under changing climate and farm management can help to guide the optimization of helminth control strategies. Recent efforts have increasingly employed such models to assess the impact of predicted climate scenarios on future infection pressure for gastrointestinal nematodes (GINs) in cattle, and to evaluate possible adaptive control measures. This review aims to consolidate progress in this field to facilitate further modeling and application. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Assessing the components of adaptive capacity to improve conservation and management efforts under global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicotra, Adrienne; Beever, Erik; Robertson, Amanda; Hofmann, Gretchen; O’Leary, John

    2015-01-01

    Natural-resource managers and other conservation practitioners are under unprecedented pressure to categorize and quantify the vulnerability of natural systems based on assessment of the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of species to climate change. Despite the urgent need for these assessments, neither the theoretical basis of adaptive capacity nor the practical issues underlying its quantification has been articulated in a manner that is directly applicable to natural-resource management. Both are critical for researchers, managers, and other conservation practitioners to develop reliable strategies for assessing adaptive capacity. Drawing from principles of classical and contemporary research and examples from terrestrial, marine, plant, and animal systems, we examined broadly the theory behind the concept of adaptive capacity. We then considered how interdisciplinary, trait- and triage-based approaches encompassing the oft-overlooked interactions among components of adaptive capacity can be used to identify species and populations likely to have higher (or lower) adaptive capacity. We identified the challenges and value of such endeavors and argue for a concerted interdisciplinary research approach that combines ecology, ecological genetics, and eco-physiology to reflect the interacting components of adaptive capacity. We aimed to provide a basis for constructive discussion between natural-resource managers and researchers, discussions urgently needed to identify research directions that will deliver answers to real-world questions facing resource managers, other conservation practitioners, and policy makers. Directing research to both seek general patterns and identify ways to facilitate adaptive capacity of key species and populations within species, will enable conservation ecologists and resource managers to maximize returns on research and management investment and arrive at novel and dynamic management and policy decisions.

  18. Assessing the components of adaptive capacity to improve conservation and management efforts under global change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicotra, Adrienne B; Beever, Erik A; Robertson, Amanda L; Hofmann, Gretchen E; O'Leary, John

    2015-10-01

    Natural-resource managers and other conservation practitioners are under unprecedented pressure to categorize and quantify the vulnerability of natural systems based on assessment of the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of species to climate change. Despite the urgent need for these assessments, neither the theoretical basis of adaptive capacity nor the practical issues underlying its quantification has been articulated in a manner that is directly applicable to natural-resource management. Both are critical for researchers, managers, and other conservation practitioners to develop reliable strategies for assessing adaptive capacity. Drawing from principles of classical and contemporary research and examples from terrestrial, marine, plant, and animal systems, we examined broadly the theory behind the concept of adaptive capacity. We then considered how interdisciplinary, trait- and triage-based approaches encompassing the oft-overlooked interactions among components of adaptive capacity can be used to identify species and populations likely to have higher (or lower) adaptive capacity. We identified the challenges and value of such endeavors and argue for a concerted interdisciplinary research approach that combines ecology, ecological genetics, and eco-physiology to reflect the interacting components of adaptive capacity. We aimed to provide a basis for constructive discussion between natural-resource managers and researchers, discussions urgently needed to identify research directions that will deliver answers to real-world questions facing resource managers, other conservation practitioners, and policy makers. Directing research to both seek general patterns and identify ways to facilitate adaptive capacity of key species and populations within species, will enable conservation ecologists and resource managers to maximize returns on research and management investment and arrive at novel and dynamic management and policy decisions. © 2015 Society for

  19. Transformation of India's transport sector under Global Warming of 2oC and 1.5oC Scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dhar, Subash; Pathak, Minal; Shukla, P.R.

    2017-01-01

    The Paris agreement stresses on concerted efforts to limit global temperature increase to 2°C and make efforts towards achieving 1.5°C temperature stabilization. Countries announced actions under the Nationally Determined Contributions outlining domestic mitigation actions to achieve the global...

  20. Multi-century Dynamics of an Ecotonal Mixed Old-growth Forest Under Global Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorado Liñán, I.; Cañellas, I.; Valbuena-Carabaña, M.; Gil, L.; Gea-Izquierdo, G.

    2016-12-01

    Old-growth forests, particularly those located at the interface between different bioregions, are invaluable sources of long-term vegetation dynamics and historical stand response to perturbations. Although old-growth forest are scarce, the information gathered studying them may assist forest ecosystem restoration and management under forthcoming climate and land use changes. We analysed how complementary dynamics of a mixed old-growth forest composed by temperate (Fagus sylvatica, Quercus petraea) and submediterranean (Quercus pyrenaica) tree species were driven in response to short and long-term natural and anthropogenic disturbances during last two centuries. The old-growth forest is located at the interface between Mediterranean and temperate bioregions so the temperate species are growing at the dry and warm edges of their natural distribution area, whereas the submediterranean species Q. pyrenaica is at the core of the distribution range. Our results reflect historical shifts in forest dominance (as reflected by growth) induced by changes in climate and forest management between temperate and sub-Mediterranean species. This was particularly noticeable for F. sylvatica and Q. pyrenaica, the least and most drought-tolerant species, respectively. A reduction in growth of F. sylvatica unprecedented in the context of the last two hundred years was observed during the last decades concurrent with forest densification and marked changes in climate. Old-growth forests, particularly those located at the interface between different bioregions, are invaluable sources of long-term vegetation dynamics and historical stand response to perturbations. Although old-growth forest are scarce, the information gathered studying them may assist forest ecosystem restoration and management under forthcoming climate and land use changes. We analysed how complementary dynamics of a mixed old-growth forest composed by temperate (Fagus sylvatica, Quercus petraea) and submediterranean

  1. Global transcriptome profiling of wild soybean (Glycine soja) roots under NaHCO3 treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge, Ying; Li, Yong; Zhu, Yan-Ming; Bai, Xi; Lv, De-Kang; Guo, Dianjing; Ji, Wei; Cai, Hua

    2010-07-26

    Plant roots are the primary site of perception and injury for saline-alkaline stress. The current knowledge of saline-alkaline stress transcriptome is mostly focused on saline (NaCl) stress and only limited information on alkaline (NaHCO3) stress is available. Using Affymetrix Soybean GeneChip, we conducted transcriptional profiling on Glycine soja roots subjected to 50 mmol/L NaHCO3 treatment. In a total of 7088 probe sets, 3307 were up-regulated and 5720 were down-regulated at various time points. The number of significantly stress regulated genes increased dramatically after 3 h stress treatment and peaked at 6 h. GO enrichment test revealed that most of the differentially expressed genes were involved in signal transduction, energy, transcription, secondary metabolism, transporter, disease and defence response. We also detected 11 microRNAs regulated by NaHCO3 stress. This is the first comprehensive wild soybean root transcriptome analysis under alkaline stress. These analyses have identified an inventory of genes with altered expression regulated by alkaline stress. The data extend the current understanding of wild soybean alkali stress response by providing a set of robustly selected, differentially expressed genes for further investigation.

  2. Range-wide latitudinal and elevational temperature gradients for the world's terrestrial birds: implications under global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    La Sorte, Frank A; Butchart, Stuart H M; Jetz, Walter; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin

    2014-01-01

    Species' geographical distributions are tracking latitudinal and elevational surface temperature gradients under global climate change. To evaluate the opportunities to track these gradients across space, we provide a first baseline assessment of the steepness of these gradients for the world's terrestrial birds. Within the breeding ranges of 9,014 bird species, we characterized the spatial gradients in temperature along latitude and elevation for all and a subset of bird species, respectively. We summarized these temperature gradients globally for threatened and non-threatened species and determined how their steepness varied based on species' geography (range size, shape, and orientation) and projected changes in temperature under climate change. Elevational temperature gradients were steepest for species in Africa, western North and South America, and central Asia and shallowest in Australasia, insular IndoMalaya, and the Neotropical lowlands. Latitudinal temperature gradients were steepest for extratropical species, especially in the Northern Hemisphere. Threatened species had shallower elevational gradients whereas latitudinal gradients differed little between threatened and non-threatened species. The strength of elevational gradients was positively correlated with projected changes in temperature. For latitudinal gradients, this relationship only held for extratropical species. The strength of latitudinal gradients was better predicted by species' geography, but primarily for extratropical species. Our findings suggest threatened species are associated with shallower elevational temperature gradients, whereas steep latitudinal gradients are most prevalent outside the tropics where fewer bird species occur year-round. Future modeling and mitigation efforts would benefit from the development of finer grain distributional data to ascertain how these gradients are structured within species' ranges, how and why these gradients vary among species, and the capacity

  3. Range-wide latitudinal and elevational temperature gradients for the world's terrestrial birds: implications under global climate change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank A La Sorte

    Full Text Available Species' geographical distributions are tracking latitudinal and elevational surface temperature gradients under global climate change. To evaluate the opportunities to track these gradients across space, we provide a first baseline assessment of the steepness of these gradients for the world's terrestrial birds. Within the breeding ranges of 9,014 bird species, we characterized the spatial gradients in temperature along latitude and elevation for all and a subset of bird species, respectively. We summarized these temperature gradients globally for threatened and non-threatened species and determined how their steepness varied based on species' geography (range size, shape, and orientation and projected changes in temperature under climate change. Elevational temperature gradients were steepest for species in Africa, western North and South America, and central Asia and shallowest in Australasia, insular IndoMalaya, and the Neotropical lowlands. Latitudinal temperature gradients were steepest for extratropical species, especially in the Northern Hemisphere. Threatened species had shallower elevational gradients whereas latitudinal gradients differed little between threatened and non-threatened species. The strength of elevational gradients was positively correlated with projected changes in temperature. For latitudinal gradients, this relationship only held for extratropical species. The strength of latitudinal gradients was better predicted by species' geography, but primarily for extratropical species. Our findings suggest threatened species are associated with shallower elevational temperature gradients, whereas steep latitudinal gradients are most prevalent outside the tropics where fewer bird species occur year-round. Future modeling and mitigation efforts would benefit from the development of finer grain distributional data to ascertain how these gradients are structured within species' ranges, how and why these gradients vary among

  4. Rapid Global River Flood Risk Assessment under Climate and Socioeconomic Scenarios: An Extreme Case of Eurasian region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwak, Young-joo; Magome, Jun; Hasegawa, Akira; Iwami, Yoichi

    2017-04-01

    Causing widespread devastation with massive economic damage and loss of human lives, flood disasters hamper economic growth and accelerate poverty particularly in developing countries. Globally, this trend will likely continue due to increase in flood magnitude and lack of preparedness for extreme events. In line with risk reduction efforts since the early 21st century, the monitors and governors of global river floods should pay attention to international scientific and policy communities for support to facilitate evidence-based policy making with a special interest in long-term changes due to climate change and socio-economic effects. Although advanced hydrological inundation models and risk models have been developed to reveal flood risk, hazard, exposure, and vulnerability at a river basin, it is obviously hard to identify the distribution and locations of continent-level flood risk based on national-level data. Therefore, we propose a methodological possibility for rapid global flood risk assessment with the results from its application to the two periods, i.e., Present (from 1980 to 2004) and Future (from 2075 to 2099). The method is particularly designed to effectively simplify complexities of a hazard area by calculating the differential inundation depth using GFID2M (global flood inundation depth 2-dimension model), despite low data availability. In this research, we addressed the question of which parts in the Eurasian region (8E to 180E, 0N to 60N) can be found as high-risk areas in terms of exposed population and economy in case of a 50-year return period flood. Economic losses were estimated according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenario, and the flood scale was defined using the annual maximum daily river discharge under the extreme conditions of climate change simulated with MRI-AGCM3.2S based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP8.5) emissions scenario. As a preliminary result, the total potential economic loss in the

  5. Global gene expression under nitrogen starvation in Xylella fastidiosa: contribution of the σ54 regulon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Silva Neto, José F; Koide, Tie; Gomes, Suely L; Marques, Marilis V

    2010-08-28

    Xylella fastidiosa, a Gram-negative fastidious bacterium, grows in the xylem of several plants causing diseases such as citrus variegated chlorosis. As the xylem sap contains low concentrations of amino acids and other compounds, X. fastidiosa needs to cope with nitrogen limitation in its natural habitat. In this work, we performed a whole-genome microarray analysis of the X. fastidiosa nitrogen starvation response. A time course experiment (2, 8 and 12 hours) of cultures grown in defined medium under nitrogen starvation revealed many differentially expressed genes, such as those related to transport, nitrogen assimilation, amino acid biosynthesis, transcriptional regulation, and many genes encoding hypothetical proteins. In addition, a decrease in the expression levels of many genes involved in carbon metabolism and energy generation pathways was also observed. Comparison of gene expression profiles between the wild type strain and the rpoN null mutant allowed the identification of genes directly or indirectly induced by nitrogen starvation in a σ54-dependent manner. A more complete picture of the σ54 regulon was achieved by combining the transcriptome data with an in silico search for potential σ54-dependent promoters, using a position weight matrix approach. One of these σ54-predicted binding sites, located upstream of the glnA gene (encoding glutamine synthetase), was validated by primer extension assays, confirming that this gene has a σ54-dependent promoter. Together, these results show that nitrogen starvation causes intense changes in the X. fastidiosa transcriptome and some of these differentially expressed genes belong to the σ54 regulon.

  6. Global gene expression under nitrogen starvation in Xylella fastidiosa: contribution of the σ54 regulon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    da Silva Neto José F

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Xylella fastidiosa, a Gram-negative fastidious bacterium, grows in the xylem of several plants causing diseases such as citrus variegated chlorosis. As the xylem sap contains low concentrations of amino acids and other compounds, X. fastidiosa needs to cope with nitrogen limitation in its natural habitat. Results In this work, we performed a whole-genome microarray analysis of the X. fastidiosa nitrogen starvation response. A time course experiment (2, 8 and 12 hours of cultures grown in defined medium under nitrogen starvation revealed many differentially expressed genes, such as those related to transport, nitrogen assimilation, amino acid biosynthesis, transcriptional regulation, and many genes encoding hypothetical proteins. In addition, a decrease in the expression levels of many genes involved in carbon metabolism and energy generation pathways was also observed. Comparison of gene expression profiles between the wild type strain and the rpoN null mutant allowed the identification of genes directly or indirectly induced by nitrogen starvation in a σ54-dependent manner. A more complete picture of the σ54 regulon was achieved by combining the transcriptome data with an in silico search for potential σ54-dependent promoters, using a position weight matrix approach. One of these σ54-predicted binding sites, located upstream of the glnA gene (encoding glutamine synthetase, was validated by primer extension assays, confirming that this gene has a σ54-dependent promoter. Conclusions Together, these results show that nitrogen starvation causes intense changes in the X. fastidiosa transcriptome and some of these differentially expressed genes belong to the σ54 regulon.

  7. Reduced connection between the East Asian Summer Monsoon and Southern Hemisphere Circulation on interannual timescales under intense global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Tianlei; Guo, Pinwen; Cheng, Jun; Hu, Aixue; Lin, Pengfei; Yu, Yongqiang

    2018-03-01

    Previous studies show a close relationship between the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) circulation on interannual timescales. In this study, we investigate whether this close relationship will change under intensive greenhouse-gas effect by analyzing simulations under two different climate background states: preindustrial era and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 stabilization from the Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4). Results show a significantly reduced relationship under stabilized RCP8.5 climate state, such a less correlated EASM with the sea level pressure in the southern Indian Ocean and the SH branch of local Hadley Cell. Further analysis suggests that the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) due to this warming leads to a less vigorous northward meridional heat transport, a decreased intertropical temperature contrast in boreal summer, which produces a weaker cross-equatorial Hadley Cell in the monsoonal region and a reduced Interhemispheric Mass Exchange (IME). Since the monsoonal IME acts as a bridge connecting EASM and SH circulation, the reduced IME weakens this connection. By performing freshwater hosing experiment using the Flexible Global Ocean—Atmosphere—Land System model, Grid-point Version 2 (FGOALS-g2), we show a weakened relationship between the EASM and SH circulation as in CCSM4 when AMOC collapses. Our results suggest that a substantially weakened AMOC is the main driver leading to the EASM, which is less affected by SH circulation in the future warmer climate.

  8. Finite Element Analysis and Footprint Determination of a Bias Truck Tire under Vertical Static Load Using Global/Local Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.H.R. Ghoreishy

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Afinite element model of a bias truck tire under static vertical load using a global/local technique is designed in two parts. In the first part a previously created model for radial tires is developed to take the constructional variables of bias tires into account. It is shown that the technique can successfully be used for bias tires. The main challenge here is the selection of the initial layout of the tire, which due to the use of nylon fibers in bias tires undergo considerable variation in shapes on being released from mold. Therefore, the selection of the tire lay out in the mold as the initial starting point for finite element calculations leads to significant errors in the final results. In the second part, a highly refined mesh has been created from contacting region of the tire tread pattern as a local model. This model is analyzed using the results of the first (global model as the boundary condition. It is also shown that the developed method is capable of precisely predicting the geometry of the footprint area without any extra computational cost and efforts needed in finite element calculations of full tire models.

  9. Simulating phenological shifts in French temperate forests under two climatic change scenarios and four driving global circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lebourgeois, François; Pierrat, Jean-Claude; Perez, Vincent; Piedallu, Christian; Cecchini, Sébastien; Ulrich, Erwin

    2010-09-01

    After modeling the large-scale climate response patterns of leaf unfolding, leaf coloring and growing season length of evergreen and deciduous French temperate trees, we predicted the effects of eight future climate scenarios on phenological events. We used the ground observations from 103 temperate forests (10 species and 3,708 trees) from the French Renecofor Network and for the period 1997-2006. We applied RandomForest algorithms to predict phenological events from climatic and ecological variables. With the resulting models, we drew maps of phenological events throughout France under present climate and under two climatic change scenarios (A2, B2) and four global circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM2, CSIRO2 and PCM). We compared current observations and predicted values for the periods 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. On average, spring development of oaks precedes that of beech, which precedes that of conifers. Annual cycles in budburst and leaf coloring are highly correlated with January, March-April and October-November weather conditions through temperature, global solar radiation or potential evapotranspiration depending on species. At the end of the twenty-first century, each model predicts earlier budburst (mean: 7 days) and later leaf coloring (mean: 13 days) leading to an average increase in the growing season of about 20 days (for oaks and beech stands). The A2-HadCM3 hypothesis leads to an increase of up to 30 days in many areas. As a consequence of higher predicted warming during autumn than during winter or spring, shifts in leaf coloring dates appear greater than trends in leaf unfolding. At a regional scale, highly differing climatic response patterns were observed.

  10. Energy storage and fecundity explain deviations from ecological stoichiometry predictions under global warming and size-selective predation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Chao; Jansen, Mieke; De Meester, Luc; Stoks, Robby

    2016-11-01

    A key challenge for ecologists is to predict how single and joint effects of global warming and predation risk translate from the individual level up to ecosystem functions. Recently, stoichiometric theory linked these levels through changes in body stoichiometry, predicting that both higher temperatures and predation risk induce shifts in energy storage (increases in C-rich carbohydrates and reductions in N-rich proteins) and body stoichiometry (increases in C : N and C : P). This promising theory, however, is rarely tested and assumes that prey will divert energy away from reproduction under predation risk, while under size-selective predation, prey instead increase fecundity. We exposed the water flea Daphnia magna to 4 °C warming and fish predation risk to test whether C-rich carbohydrates increase and N-rich proteins decrease, and as a result, C : N and C : P increase under warming and predation risk. Unexpectedly, warming decreased body C : N, which was driven by reductions in C-rich fat and sugar contents while the protein content did not change. This reflected a trade-off where the accelerated intrinsic growth rate under warming occurred at the cost of a reduced energy storage. Warming reduced C : N less and only increased C : P and N : P in the fish-period Daphnia. These evolved stoichiometric responses to warming were largely driven by stronger warming-induced reductions in P than in C and N and could be explained by the better ability to deal with warming in the fish-period Daphnia. In contrast to theory predictions, body C : N decreased under predation risk due to a strong increase in the N-rich protein content that offsets the increase in C-rich fat content. The higher investment in fecundity (more N-rich eggs) under predation risk contributed to this stronger increase in protein content. Similarly, the lower body C : N of pre-fish Daphnia also matched their higher fecundity. Warming and predation risk independently shaped body

  11. Collective Action under Globalization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheuer, Steen

    Collective action in the form of industrial conflict has declined dramatically since the high tide in the 1970s in Europe. This article argues that this decline is the result of significant changes in both economic and institutional factors, influencing the calculations of employees and of their ...

  12. Application of the local-to-global approach to the study of infilled frame structures under seismic loading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Combescure, D.

    2000-01-01

    The seismic performance of civil engineering structures may be estimated by using two levels of modelling. At the local level, each constituent has its own constitutive law and geometric finite element support. The main phenomena such as the cracking and the crushing of concrete and masonry could be reproduced by using the continuous damage or plasticity theories. However the cost of the computations does not allow extensive or dynamic studies and thus the global level - where the constitutive laws based on empirical rules reproduce the behaviour of the structural elements - represents the unique strategy for the analysis of complete civil engineering structures under seismic loading. The present paper aims at presenting the application of these two modelling levels in order to assess the seismic performance of masonry infilled R/C frame structures. The one-bay masonry infilled frames tested at Lisbon under cyclic loading and the four-storey building tested at ELSA have been used for the validation of the modelling approach. (orig.)

  13. Potential distribution of Podocnemis lewyana (Reptilia: Podocnemididae) and its possible fluctuation under different global climate change scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ortiz Yusty, Carlos; Restrepo, Adriana; Paez, Vivian P

    2014-01-01

    We implemented a species distribution modelling approach to establish the potential distribution of Podocnemis lewyana, to explore the climatic factors that may influence the species' distribution and to evaluate possible changes in distribution under future climate scenarios. The distribution models predicted a continuous distribution from south to north along the Magdalena River, from Rivera and Palermo in the Department of Huila to the departments of Atlantico and Magdalena in the north. Temperature was the variable most influential in the distribution of P. lewyana; this species tends to be present in warm regions with low temperature variability. The distribution model predicted an increase in the geographic range of P. lewyana under climate change scenarios. However, taking into account the habitat preferences of this species and its strong association with water, this result should be treated with caution since the model considered only terrestrial climatic variables. Given the life history characteristics of this species (temperature dependent sex determination, high pivotal temperature and a very narrow transition range) and the negative effect of changes in hydrological regimes on embryo survival, expansion of the potential distribution of P. lewyana in the future does not mean that the species will not be affected by global climate change.

  14. Global identification of stochastic dynamical systems under different pseudo-static operating conditions: The functionally pooled ARMAX case

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakellariou, J. S.; Fassois, S. D.

    2017-01-01

    The identification of a single global model for a stochastic dynamical system operating under various conditions is considered. Each operating condition is assumed to have a pseudo-static effect on the dynamics and be characterized by a single measurable scheduling variable. Identification is accomplished within a recently introduced Functionally Pooled (FP) framework, which offers a number of advantages over Linear Parameter Varying (LPV) identification techniques. The focus of the work is on the extension of the framework to include the important FP-ARMAX model case. Compared to their simpler FP-ARX counterparts, FP-ARMAX models are much more general and offer improved flexibility in describing various types of stochastic noise, but at the same time lead to a more complicated, non-quadratic, estimation problem. Prediction Error (PE), Maximum Likelihood (ML), and multi-stage estimation methods are postulated, and the PE estimator optimality, in terms of consistency and asymptotic efficiency, is analytically established. The postulated estimators are numerically assessed via Monte Carlo experiments, while the effectiveness of the approach and its superiority over its FP-ARX counterpart are demonstrated via an application case study pertaining to simulated railway vehicle suspension dynamics under various mass loading conditions.

  15. Climate change alters low flows in Europe under global warming of 1.5, 2, and 3 °C

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marx, Andreas; Kumar, Rohini; Thober, Stephan; Rakovec, Oldrich; Wanders, Niko; Zink, Matthias; Wood, Eric F.; Pan, Ming; Sheffield, Justin; Samaniego, Luis

    2018-02-01

    There is growing evidence that climate change will alter water availability in Europe. Here, we investigate how hydrological low flows are affected under different levels of future global warming (i.e. 1.5, 2, and 3 K with respect to the pre-industrial period) in rivers with a contributing area of more than 1000 km2. The analysis is based on a multi-model ensemble of 45 hydrological simulations based on three representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP6.0, RCP8.5), five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCMs: GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, NorESM1-M) and three state-of-the-art hydrological models (HMs: mHM, Noah-MP, and PCR-GLOBWB). High-resolution model results are available at a spatial resolution of 5 km across the pan-European domain at a daily temporal resolution. Low river flow is described as the percentile of daily streamflow that is exceeded 90 % of the time. It is determined separately for each GCM/HM combination and warming scenario. The results show that the low-flow change signal amplifies with increasing warming levels. Low flows decrease in the Mediterranean region, while they increase in the Alpine and Northern regions. In the Mediterranean, the level of warming amplifies the signal from -12 % under 1.5 K, compared to the baseline period 1971-2000, to -35 % under global warming of 3 K, largely due to the projected decreases in annual precipitation. In contrast, the signal is amplified from +22 (1.5 K) to +45 % (3 K) in the Alpine region due to changes in snow accumulation. The changes in low flows are significant for regions with relatively large change signals and under higher levels of warming. However, it is not possible to distinguish climate-induced differences in low flows between 1.5 and 2 K warming because of (1) the large inter-annual variability which prevents distinguishing statistical estimates of period-averaged changes for a given GCM/HM combination, and (2

  16. Arctic climate and its interaction with lower latitudes under different levels of anthropogenic warming in a global coupled climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koenigk, Torben; Brodeau, Laurent

    2017-07-01

    Three quasi-equilibrium simulations using constant greenhouse gas forcing corresponding to years 2000, 2015 and 2030 have been performed with the global coupled model EC-Earth in order to analyze the Arctic climate and interactions with lower latitudes under different levels of anthropogenic warming. The model simulations indicate an accelerated warming and ice extent reduction in the Arctic between the year-2030 and year-2015 simulations compared to the change between the year-2015 and year-2000 simulations. Both Arctic warming and sea ice reduction are closely linked to the increase of ocean heat transport into the Arctic, particularly through the Barents Sea Opening. Decadal variations of Arctic sea ice extent and ice volume are of the same order of magnitude as the observed ice extent reductions in the last 30 years and are dominated by the variability of the ocean heat transports through the Barents Sea Opening and the Bering Strait. Despite a general warming of mid and high northern latitudes, a substantial cooling is found in the subpolar gyre of the North Atlantic under year-2015 and year-2030 conditions. This cooling is related to a strong reduction in the AMOC, itself due to reduced deep water formation in the Labrador Sea. The observed trend towards a more negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the observed linkage between autumn Arctic ice variations and NAO are reproduced in our model simulations for selected 30-year periods but are not robust over longer time periods. This indicates that the observed linkages between ice and NAO might not be robust in reality either, and that the observational time period is still too short to reliably separate the trend from the natural variability.

  17. Using Citizen Science Data to Model the Distributions of Common Songbirds of Turkey Under Different Global Climatic Change Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abolafya, Moris; Onmuş, Ortaç; Şekercioğlu, Çağan H.; Bilgin, Raşit

    2013-01-01

    In this study, we evaluated the potential impact of climate change on the distributions of Turkey’s songbirds in the 21st century by modelling future distributions of 20 resident and nine migratory species under two global climate change scenarios. We combined verified data from an ornithological citizen science initiative (www.kusbank.org) with maximum entropy modeling and eight bioclimatic variables to estimate species distributions and projections for future time periods. Model predictions for resident and migratory species showed high variability, with some species projected to lose and others projected to gain suitable habitat. Our study helps improve the understanding of the current and potential future distributions of Turkey’s songbirds and their responses to climate change, highlights effective strategies to maximize avian conservation efforts in the study region, and provides a model for using citizen science data for biodiversity research in a large developing country with few professional field biologists. Our results demonstrate that climate change will not affect every species equally in Turkey. Expected range reductions in some breeding species will increase the risk of local extinction, whereas others are likely to expand their ranges. PMID:23844151

  18. The Projected Changes in the relationship between Precipitation, African Easterly Jet and African Easterly Waves under global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kebe, I.

    2016-12-01

    The latest version of the International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model (RegCM4) driven by three CMIP5 Global Climate Models (GCMs) is used at 25 km of grid spacing over West Africa. In particular, we examine how convection, AEJ, AEWs, precipitation and their interaction are changing in the future (2080-2099, under two GHG scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 and the referenced period 1985-2004). The results show that among the model simulations, some project wetter climate along the Gulf of Guinea and drier conditions along the entire Sahel while other project a drier condition along the both region. Mostly, the RegCM4 simulations simulate contrasting changes in vertical motion over the complex terrains (negative) during the present day while the higher values are found over the mountaintops and the positive value prevail during the future period. Given observed change in the far future climate, the result show that the characteristics of AEJ and AEWs are changing in the future. Such changes in the location and intensity of AEJ and AEWs and the magnitude of both AEJ and AEW winds carry implications in the relationship between AEJ and precipitation, AEWs and precipitation over the West African region, particularly in the Sahel region. We conclude that a good performing GCM in terms of monsoon dynamical features (in this case MPI-ESM-MR) is needed to drive RCMs in order to achieve a better representation of the West Africa summer monsoon precipitation.

  19. Interspecific Hybridization in Pilot Whales and Asymmetric Genetic Introgression in Northern Globicephala melas under the Scenario of Global Warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miralles, Laura; Oremus, Marc; Silva, Mónica A; Planes, Serge; Garcia-Vazquez, Eva

    2016-01-01

    Pilot whales are two cetacean species (Globicephala melas and G. macrorhynchus) whose distributions are correlated with water temperature and partially overlap in some areas like the North Atlantic Ocean. In the context of global warming, distribution range shifts are expected to occur in species affected by temperature. Consequently, a northward displacement of the tropical pilot whale G. macrorynchus is expected, eventually leading to increased secondary contact areas and opportunities for interspecific hybridization. Here, we describe genetic evidences of recurrent hybridization between pilot whales in northeast Atlantic Ocean. Based on mitochondrial DNA sequences and microsatellite loci, asymmetric introgression of G. macrorhynchus genes into G. melas was observed. For the latter species, a significant correlation was found between historical population growth rate estimates and paleotemperature oscillations. Introgressive hybridization, current temperature increases and lower genetic variation in G. melas suggest that this species could be at risk in its northern range. Under increasing environmental and human-mediated stressors in the North Atlantic Ocean, it seems recommendable to develop a conservation program for G. melas.

  20. Surface ozone seasonality under global change: Influence from dry deposition and isoprene emissions at northern mid-latitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clifton, O.; Paulot, F.; Fiore, A. M.; Horowitz, L. W.; Malyshev, S.; Shevliakova, E.; Correa, G. J. P.; Lin, M.

    2017-12-01

    Identifying the contributions of nonlinear chemistry and transport to observed surface ozone seasonal cycles over land using global models relies on an accurate representation of ozone uptake by vegetation (dry deposition). It is well established that in the absence of ozone precursor emission changes, a warming climate will increase surface ozone in polluted regions, and that a rise in temperature-dependent isoprene emissions would exacerbate this "climate penalty". However, the influence of changes in ozone dry deposition, expected to evolve with climate and land use, is often overlooked in air quality projections. With a new scheme that represents dry deposition within the NOAA GFDL dynamic vegetation land model (LM3) coupled to the NOAA GFDL atmospheric chemistry-climate model (AM3), we simulate the impact of 21st century climate and land use on ozone dry deposition and isoprene emissions. This dry deposition parameterization is a version of the Wesely scheme, but uses parameters explicitly calculated by LM3 that respond to climate and land use (e.g., stomatal conductance, canopy interception of water, leaf area index). The parameterization includes a nonstomatal deposition dependence on humidity. We evaluate climatological present-day seasonal cycles of ozone deposition velocities and abundances with those observed at northern mid-latitude sites. With a set of 2010s and 2090s decadal simulations under a high climate warming scenario (RCP8.5) and a sensitivity simulation with well-mixed greenhouse gases following RCP8.5 but air pollutants held at 2010 levels (RCP8.5_WMGG), we examine changes in surface ozone seasonal cycles. We build on our previous findings, which indicate that strong reductions in anthropogenic NOx emissions under RCP8.5 cause the surface ozone seasonal cycle over the NE USA to reverse, shifting from a summer peak at present to a winter peak by 2100. Under RCP8.5_WMGG, we parse the separate effects of climate and land use on ozone dry

  1. Public services in the international investment arbitration: an approach under the perspective of the global administrative law

    OpenAIRE

    Hernández, José

    2016-01-01

    The public service has been, traditionally, a domestic concept of the Administrative Law. However, as a consequence of globalization, the public service regulation by the Administration is also subject to the Global Administrative Law, specifically in the context of the international investment arbitration.

  2. Landscape dynamics in Mediterranean oak forests under global change: understanding the role of anthropogenic and environmental drivers across forest types.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acácio, Vanda; Dias, Filipe S; Catry, Filipe X; Rocha, Marta; Moreira, Francisco

    2017-03-01

    The Mediterranean region is projected to be extremely vulnerable to global change, which will affect the distribution of typical forest types such as native oak forests. However, our understanding of Mediterranean oak forest responses to future conditions is still very limited by the lack of knowledge on oak forest dynamics and species-specific responses to multiple drivers. We compared the long-term (1966-2006) forest persistence and land cover change among evergreen (cork oak and holm oak) and deciduous oak forests and evaluated the importance of anthropogenic and environmental drivers on observed changes for Portugal. We used National Forest Inventories to quantify the changes in oak forests and explored the drivers of change using multinomial logistic regression analysis and an information theoretical approach. We found distinct trends among oak forest types, reflecting the differences in oak economic value, protection status and management schemes: cork oak forests were the most persistent (62%), changing mostly to pines and eucalypt; holm oak forests were less persistent (53.2%), changing mostly to agriculture; and deciduous oak forests were the least persistent (45.7%), changing mostly to shrublands. Drivers of change had distinct importance across oak forest types, but drivers from anthropogenic origin (wildfires, population density, and land accessibility) were always among the most important. Climatic extremes were also important predictors of oak forest changes, namely extreme temperatures for evergreen oak forests and deficit of precipitation for deciduous oak forests. Our results indicate that under increasing human pressure and forecasted climate change, evergreen oak forests will continue declining and deciduous oak forests will be replaced by forests dominated by more xeric species. In the long run, multiple disturbances may change competitive dominance from oak forests to pyrophytic shrublands. A better understanding of forest dynamics and the

  3. Globalization and Equitable Use of Natural Resources in the Contemporary World: A Diagnosis Under the Bias of The Principle of Intergenerational Equity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luís Marcelo Mendes

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Article  conduct  an  assessment  of  globalization  has  unleashed  the  commodification/depredation of natural resources in local/global scale to meet the interests of the market and the performance of the principle of intergenerational equity to try to curb this phenomenon. The research makes use of the deductive method, and uses dialectical contributions in order to implement a more accurate analysis of the phenomenon. At first, time will address under as globalization changes in consumption patterns of individuals in local/global level. Finally, it will take shape-the role of the principle of intergenerational equity by the legal system to try to curb ecological degradation.

  4. Projecting pest population dynamics under global warming: the combined effect of inter- and intra-annual variations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zidon, Royi; Tsueda, Hirotsugu; Morin, Efrat; Morin, Shai

    2016-06-01

    The typical short generation length of insects makes their population dynamics highly sensitive not only to mean annual temperatures but also to their intra-annual variations. To consider the combined effect of both thermal factors under global warming, we propose a modeling framework that links general circulation models (GCMs) with a stochastic weather generator and population dynamics models to predict species population responses to inter- and intra-annual temperature changes. This framework was utilized to explore future changes in populations of Bemisia tabaci, an invasive insect pest-species that affects multiple agricultural systems in the Mediterranean region. We considered three locations representing different pest status and climatic conditions: Montpellier (France), Seville (Spain), and Beit-Jamal (Israel). We produced ensembles of local daily temperature realizations representing current and future (mid-21st century) climatic conditions under two emission scenarios for the three locations. Our simulations predicted a significant increase in the average number of annual generations and in population size, and a significant lengthening of the growing season in all three locations. A negative effect was found only in Seville for the summer season, where future temperatures lead to a reduction in population size. High variability in population size was observed between years with similar annual mean temperatures, suggesting a strong effect of intra-annual temperature variation. Critical periods were from late spring to late summer in Montpellier and from late winter to early summer in Seville and Beit-Jamal. Although our analysis suggested that earlier seasonal activity does not necessarily lead to increased populations load unless an additional generation is produced, it is highly likely that the insect will become a significant pest of open-fields at Mediterranean latitudes above 40° during the next 50 years. Our simulations also implied that current

  5. Big moving day for biodiversity? A macroecological assessment of the scope for assisted colonization as a conservation strategy under global warming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svenning, J.-C.; Fløjgaard, Camilla; Morueta-Holme, Naia

    2009-01-01

    to corresponding losses locally. Our results suggest that there is substantial room for additional plant species across most areas of Europe, indicating that there is considerable scope for implementing assisted colonization as a proactive conservation strategy under global warming without necessarily implicating...

  6. The tunneling radiation of a black hole with a f( R) global monopole under generalized uncertainty principle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lingshen; Cheng, Hongbo

    2018-03-01

    The Parikh-Kraus-Wilczeck tunneling radiation of black hole involving a f( R) global monopole is considered based on the generalized uncertainty principle. The influences from global monopole, f( R) gravity and the corrections to the uncertainty appear in the expression of black hole entropy difference. It is found that the global monopole and the revision of general relativity both hinder the black hole from emitting the photons. The two parts as corrections to the uncertainty make the entropy difference of this kind of black hole larger or smaller respectively.

  7. Forests and global warming mitigation in Brazil: opportunities in the Brazilian forest sector for responses to global warming under the 'clean development mechanism''

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fearnside, P.M.

    1999-01-01

    The Kyoto Protocol created global warming response opportunities through the clean development mechanism that allow countries like Brazil to receive investments from companies and governments wishing to offset their emissions of greenhouse gases. Brazil has a special place in strategies for combating global warming because its vast areas of tropical forest represent a potentially large source of emissions if deforested. A number of issues need to be settled to properly assign credit for carbon in the types of options presented by the Brazilian forest sector. These include definition of the units of carbon (permanent sequestration versus carbon-ton-years, the latter being most appropriate for forest options), the means of crediting forest reserve establishment, adoption of discounting or other time-preference weighting for carbon, definition of the accounting method (avoided emissions versus stock maintenance), and mechanism to allow program contributions to be counted, rather than restricting consideration to free-standing projects. Silvicultural plantations offer opportunities for carbon benefits, but have high social impacts in the Brazilian context. Plantations also inherently compete with deforestation reduction options for funds. Forest management has been proposed as a global warming response option, but the assignment of any value to time makes this unattractive in terms of carbon benefits. However, reduced-impact logging can substantially reduce emissions over those from traditional logging practices. Slowing deforestation is the major opportunity offered by Brazil. Slowing deforestation will require understanding its causes and creating functional models capable of generating land-use change scenarios with and without different policy changes and other activities. Brazil already has a number of programs designed to slow deforestation, but the continued rapid loss of forest highlights the vast gulf that exists between the magnitude of the problem and the

  8. Biodiversity's big wet secret: the global distribution of marine biological records reveals chronic under-exploration of the deep pelagic ocean.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas J Webb

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Understanding the distribution of marine biodiversity is a crucial first step towards the effective and sustainable management of marine ecosystems. Recent efforts to collate location records from marine surveys enable us to assemble a global picture of recorded marine biodiversity. They also effectively highlight gaps in our knowledge of particular marine regions. In particular, the deep pelagic ocean--the largest biome on Earth--is chronically under-represented in global databases of marine biodiversity. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We use data from the Ocean Biogeographic Information System to plot the position in the water column of ca 7 million records of marine species occurrences. Records from relatively shallow waters dominate this global picture of recorded marine biodiversity. In addition, standardising the number of records from regions of the ocean differing in depth reveals that regardless of ocean depth, most records come either from surface waters or the sea bed. Midwater biodiversity is drastically under-represented. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The deep pelagic ocean is the largest habitat by volume on Earth, yet it remains biodiversity's big wet secret, as it is hugely under-represented in global databases of marine biological records. Given both its value in the provision of a range of ecosystem services, and its vulnerability to threats including overfishing and climate change, there is a pressing need to increase our knowledge of Earth's largest ecosystem.

  9. A Brief Analysis on Cross-cultural Communication Strategy of Chinese Films under the Context of Globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cao Zhiyong

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available With the development of globalization waves, the cross-cultural communication becomes more and more common nowadays. Chinese films, as a kind of mass media and the carrier of ideology, must meet the challenge in the world with active attitudes and take part in cross-cultural communication worldwide extensively. The context of globalization is not only a challenge but also an opportunity for Chinese films and if Chinese films want to be successful in the process of cross-cultural communication, it must find out a conjoint point between globalization and location to implement dual-coding of them. With the objective of consensus but different for the cultural demands of cross-cultural communication, the communicational strategies in culture,subject,art and operation must extensively use for reference and boldly create to renew the situation of Chinese films.

  10. Efficient Global Optimization Under Conditions of Noise and Uncertainty - A Multi-Model Multi-Grid Windowing Approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Romero, Vicente J.

    1999-01-01

    Incomplete convergence in numerical simulation such as computational physics simulations and/or Monte Carlo simulations can enter into the calculation of the objective function in an optimization problem, producing noise, bias, and topo- graphical inaccuracy in the objective function. These affect accuracy and convergence rate in the optimization problem. This paper is concerned with global searching of a diverse parameter space, graduating to accelerated local convergence to a (hopefully) global optimum, in a framework that acknowledges convergence uncertainty and manages model resolu- tion to efficiently reduce uncertainty in the final optimum. In its own right, the global-to-local optimization engine employed here (devised for noise tolerance) performs better than other classical and contemporary optimization approaches tried individually and in combination on the ''industrial'' test problem to be presented

  11. How do persistent organic pollutants be coupled with biogeochemical cycles of carbon and nutrients in terrestrial ecosystems under global climate change?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Teng, Ying [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing (China). Key Lab. of Soil Environment and Pollution Remediation; Griffith Univ., Nathan, QLD (Australia). Environmetnal Futures Centre and School of Biomolecular and Physical Sciences; Xu, Zhihong; Reverchon, Frederique [Griffith Univ., Nathan, QLD (Australia). Environmetnal Futures Centre and School of Biomolecular and Physical Sciences; Luo, Yongming [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing (China). Key Lab. of Soil Environment and Pollution Remediation

    2012-03-15

    Global climate change (GCC), especially global warming, has affected the material cycling (e.g., carbon, nutrients, and organic chemicals) and the energy flows of terrestrial ecosystems. Persistent organic pollutants (POPs) were regarded as anthropogenic organic carbon (OC) source, and be coupled with the natural carbon (C) and nutrient biogeochemical cycling in ecosystems. The objective of this work was to review the current literature and explore potential coupling processes and mechanisms between POPs and biogeochemical cycles of C and nutrients in terrestrial ecosystems induced by global warming. Global warming has caused many physical, chemical, and biological changes in terrestrial ecosystems. POPs environmental fate in these ecosystems is controlled mainly by temperature and biogeochemical processes. Global warming may accelerate the re-emissions and redistribution of POPs among environmental compartments via soil-air exchange. Soil-air exchange is a key process controlling the fate and transportation of POPs and terrestrial ecosystem C at regional and global scales. Soil respiration is one of the largest terrestrial C flux induced by microbe and plant metabolism, which can affect POPs biotransformation in terrestrial ecosystems. Carbon flow through food web structure also may have important consequences for the biomagnification of POPs in the ecosystems and further lead to biodiversity loss induced by climate change and POPs pollution stress. Moreover, the integrated techniques and biological adaptation strategy help to fully explore the coupling mechanisms, functioning and trends of POPs and C and nutrient biogeochemical cycling processes in terrestrial ecosystems. There is increasing evidence that the environmental fate of POPs has been linked with biogeochemical cycles of C and nutrients in terrestrial ecosystems under GCC. However, the relationships between POPs and the biogeochemical cycles of C and nutrients are still not well understood. Further

  12. Global Distribution of Cloud Droplet Number Concentration, Autoconversion Rate, and Aerosol Indirect Effect Under Diabatic Droplet Activation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barahona, Donifan; Sotiropoulou, Rafaella; Nenes, Athanasios

    2011-01-01

    This study presents a global assessment of the sensitivity of droplet number to diabatic activation (i.e., including effects from entrainment of dry air) and its first-order tendency on indirect forcing and autoconversion. Simulations were carried out with the NASA Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) atmospheric and transport model using climatological metereorological fields derived from the former NASA Data Assimilation Office (DAO), the NASA Finite volume GCM (FVGCM) and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies version II (GISS) GCM. Cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) is calculated using a physically based prognostic parameterization that explicitly includes entrainment effects on droplet formation. Diabatic activation results in lower CDNC, compared to adiabatic treatment of the process. The largest decrease in CDNC (by up to 75 percent) was found in the tropics and in zones of moderate CCN concentration. This leads to a global mean effective radius increase between 0.2-0.5 micrometers (up to 3.5 micrometers over the tropics), a global mean autoconversion rate increase by a factor of 1.1 to 1.7 (up to a factor of 4 in the tropics), and a 0.2-0.4 W m(exp -2) decrease in indirect forcing. The spatial patterns of entrainment effects on droplet activation tend to reduce biases in effective radius (particularly in the tropics) when compared to satellite retrievals. Considering the diabatic nature of ambient clouds, entrainment effects on CDNC need to be considered in GCM studies of the aerosol indirect effect.

  13. Projections of future floods and hydrological droughts in Europe under a +2°C global warming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roudier, Philippe; Andersson, Jafet C.M.; Donnelly, Chantal; Feyen, Luc; Greuell, Wouter; Ludwig, Fulco

    2016-01-01

    We present an assessment of the impacts of a +2°C global warming on extreme floods and hydrological droughts (1 in 10 and 1 in 100 year events) in Europe using eleven bias-corrected climate model simulations from CORDEX Europe and three hydrological models. The results show quite contrasted results

  14. Flood risk and adaptation strategies under climate change and urban expansion: A probabilistic analysis using global data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Muis, S.; Güneralp, B.; Jongman, B.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.; Ward, P.J.

    2015-01-01

    An accurate understanding of flood risk and its drivers is crucial for effective risk management. Detailed risk projections, including uncertainties, are however rarely available, particularly in developing countries. This paper presents a method that integrates recent advances in global-scale

  15. Scenario dependence of future changes in climate extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhili; Lin, Lei; Zhang, Xiaoye; Zhang, Hua; Liu, Liangke; Xu, Yangyang

    2017-04-01

    The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming below 2 °C and pursue efforts to even limit it to 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. Decision makers need reliable information on the impacts caused by these warming levels for climate mitigation and adaptation measures. We explore the changes in climate extremes, which are closely tied to economic losses and casualties, under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming and their scenario dependence using three sets of ensemble global climate model simulations. A warming of 0.5 °C (from 1.5 °C to 2 °C) leads to significant increases in temperature and precipitation extremes in most regions. However, the projected changes in climate extremes under both warming levels highly depend on the pathways of emissions scenarios, with different greenhouse gas (GHG)/aerosol forcing ratio and GHG levels. Moreover, there are multifold differences in several heavily polluted regions, among the scenarios, in the changes in precipitation extremes due to an additional 0.5 °C warming from 1.5 °C to 2 °C. Our results demonstrate that the chemical compositions of emissions scenarios, not just the total radiative forcing and resultant warming level, must be considered when assessing the impacts of global 1.5/2 °C warming.

  16. Scenario dependence of future changes in climate extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhili; Lin, Lei; Zhang, Xiaoye; Zhang, Hua; Liu, Liangke; Xu, Yangyang

    2017-04-20

    The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming below 2 °C and pursue efforts to even limit it to 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. Decision makers need reliable information on the impacts caused by these warming levels for climate mitigation and adaptation measures. We explore the changes in climate extremes, which are closely tied to economic losses and casualties, under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming and their scenario dependence using three sets of ensemble global climate model simulations. A warming of 0.5 °C (from 1.5 °C to 2 °C) leads to significant increases in temperature and precipitation extremes in most regions. However, the projected changes in climate extremes under both warming levels highly depend on the pathways of emissions scenarios, with different greenhouse gas (GHG)/aerosol forcing ratio and GHG levels. Moreover, there are multifold differences in several heavily polluted regions, among the scenarios, in the changes in precipitation extremes due to an additional 0.5 °C warming from 1.5 °C to 2 °C. Our results demonstrate that the chemical compositions of emissions scenarios, not just the total radiative forcing and resultant warming level, must be considered when assessing the impacts of global 1.5/2 °C warming.

  17. Scenario dependence of future changes in climate extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhili; Lin, Lei; Zhang, Xiaoye; Zhang, Hua; Liu, Liangke; Xu, Yangyang

    2017-01-01

    The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming below 2 °C and pursue efforts to even limit it to 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. Decision makers need reliable information on the impacts caused by these warming levels for climate mitigation and adaptation measures. We explore the changes in climate extremes, which are closely tied to economic losses and casualties, under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming and their scenario dependence using three sets of ensemble global climate model simulations. A warming of 0.5 °C (from 1.5 °C to 2 °C) leads to significant increases in temperature and precipitation extremes in most regions. However, the projected changes in climate extremes under both warming levels highly depend on the pathways of emissions scenarios, with different greenhouse gas (GHG)/aerosol forcing ratio and GHG levels. Moreover, there are multifold differences in several heavily polluted regions, among the scenarios, in the changes in precipitation extremes due to an additional 0.5 °C warming from 1.5 °C to 2 °C. Our results demonstrate that the chemical compositions of emissions scenarios, not just the total radiative forcing and resultant warming level, must be considered when assessing the impacts of global 1.5/2 °C warming. PMID:28425445

  18. Letters in the Forest: Global precedence effect disappears for letters but not for non-letters under reading-like conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas eLachmann

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Normally-skilled reading involves special processing strategies for letters, which are habitually funneled into an abstract letter code. On the basis of previous studies we argue that this habit leads to the preferred usage of an analytic strategy for the processing of letters, while non-letters are preferably processed via a holistic strategy. The well-known Global Precedence Effect (GPE seems to contradict to this assumption, since, with compound, hierarchical figures, including letter items, faster responses are observed to the global than to the local level of the figure, as well as an asymmetric interference effect from global to local level. We argue that with letters these effects depend on presentation conditions; only when they elicit the processing strategies automatized for reading, an analytic strategy for letters in contrast to non-letters is to be expected. We compared the GPE for letters and non-letters in central viewing, with the global stimulus size close to the functional visual field in whole word reading (6.5o of visual angle and local stimuli close to the critical size for fluent reading of individual letters (.5o of visual angle. Under these conditions, the GPE remained robust for non-letters. For letters, however, it disappeared: letters showed no overall response time advantage for the global level and symmetric congruence effects (local-to-global as well as global-to local interference. We interpret these results as according to the view that reading is based on resident analytic visual processing strategies for letters.

  19. Species extinction risk might increase out of reserves: allowances for conservation of threatened butterfly Actinote quadra (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae) under global warming

    OpenAIRE

    Sobral-Souza, Thadeu; Francini, Ronaldo Bastos; Lima-Ribeiro, Matheus Souza

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is an important factor affecting species dispersal and distribution through time and the accelerated global warming has currently concerned decision makers and conservationists. Because protected areas are spatially static, species extinction risk is generally expected to increase under climate change scenarios as a consequence of range shift and decrease. This study aims to understand the current conservation status of Actinote quadra, a neotropical threatened butterfly specie...

  20. Local adaptation and the potential effects of a contaminant on predator avoidance and antipredator responses under global warming: a space-for-time substitution approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janssens, Lizanne; Dinh Van, Khuong; Debecker, Sara; Bervoets, Lieven; Stoks, Robby

    2014-03-01

    The ability to deal with temperature-induced changes in interactions with contaminants and predators under global warming is one of the outstanding, applied evolutionary questions. For this, it is crucial to understand how contaminants will affect activity levels, predator avoidance and antipredator responses under global warming and to what extent gradual thermal evolution may mitigate these effects. Using a space-for-time substitution approach, we assessed the potential for gradual thermal evolution shaping activity (mobility and foraging), predator avoidance and antipredator responses when Ischnura elegans damselfly larvae were exposed to zinc in a common-garden warming experiment at the mean summer water temperatures of shallow water bodies at southern and northern latitudes (24 and 20°C, respectively). Zinc reduced mobility and foraging, predator avoidance and escape swimming speed. Importantly, high-latitude populations showed stronger zinc-induced reductions in escape swimming speed at both temperatures, and in activity levels at the high temperature. The latter indicates that local thermal adaptation may strongly change the ecological impact of contaminants under global warming. Our study underscores the critical importance of considering local adaptation along natural gradients when integrating biotic interactions in ecological risk assessment, and the potential of gradual thermal evolution mitigating the effects of warming on the vulnerability to contaminants.

  1. Local adaptation and the potential effects of a contaminant on predator avoidance and antipredator responses under global warming: a space-for-time substitution approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janssens, Lizanne; Dinh Van, Khuong; Debecker, Sara; Bervoets, Lieven; Stoks, Robby

    2014-01-01

    The ability to deal with temperature-induced changes in interactions with contaminants and predators under global warming is one of the outstanding, applied evolutionary questions. For this, it is crucial to understand how contaminants will affect activity levels, predator avoidance and antipredator responses under global warming and to what extent gradual thermal evolution may mitigate these effects. Using a space-for-time substitution approach, we assessed the potential for gradual thermal evolution shaping activity (mobility and foraging), predator avoidance and antipredator responses when Ischnura elegans damselfly larvae were exposed to zinc in a common-garden warming experiment at the mean summer water temperatures of shallow water bodies at southern and northern latitudes (24 and 20°C, respectively). Zinc reduced mobility and foraging, predator avoidance and escape swimming speed. Importantly, high-latitude populations showed stronger zinc-induced reductions in escape swimming speed at both temperatures, and in activity levels at the high temperature. The latter indicates that local thermal adaptation may strongly change the ecological impact of contaminants under global warming. Our study underscores the critical importance of considering local adaptation along natural gradients when integrating biotic interactions in ecological risk assessment, and the potential of gradual thermal evolution mitigating the effects of warming on the vulnerability to contaminants. PMID:24665344

  2. Slow reception and under-citedness in climate change research: A case study of Charles David Keeling, discoverer of the risk of global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marx, Werner; Haunschild, Robin; French, Bernie; Bornmann, Lutz

    2017-01-01

    The Keeling curve has become a chemical landmark, whereas the papers by Charles David Keeling about the underlying carbon dioxide measurements are not cited as often as can be expected against the backdrop of his final approval. In this bibliometric study, we analyze Keeling's papers as a case study for under-citedness of climate change publications. Three possible reasons for the under-citedness of Keeling's papers are discussed: (1) The discourse on global cooling at the starting time of Keeling's measurement program, (2) the underestimation of what is often seen as "routine science", and (3) the amount of implicit/informal citations at the expense of explicit/formal (reference-based) citations. Those reasons may have contributed more or less to the slow reception and the under-citedness of Keeling's seminal works.

  3. Hydrological Responses of Chaobai River Basin under 1.5° and 2.0° Global Warming Using Multi-GCMs and Multi-RCPs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Y.; Ma, J.

    2017-12-01

    The global warming of 1.5° and 2.0° proposed in Paris Agreement has became the iconic threshold of climate change impact research and discussion. In order to provide useful reference to the effective water resource management and planning for the capital city of China, this study aims to assessing the potential impact of 1.5° and 2.0° global warming on river discharge in Chaobai River Basin(CRB) which is main water supply source of Beijing. A semi-distributed hydrological model SWAT was driven by climate projections from five General Circulation Models(GCMs) under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) to simulate the future discharge in CRB under 1.5° and 2.0° global warming respectively. On this basis, climate change impact on annual and monthly discharge, seasonal discharge distribution, extreme monthly discharge in CRB were assessed and the uncertainty associated with GCMs and RCPs were analyzed quantitatively. The results indicate that the average annual discharge will increase slightly and more concentrate in midsummer and early autumn under 1.5° global warming. When the global average temperature rise 2°, the annual discharge in CRB show an evident positive tendency with the magnitude increasing by approximate 30% and the extreme monthly runoff will significantly increase. However, the proportion of discharge in summer which is the peak water usage period will decline. It is obvious that the increment of 0.5° will lead to more flood events and bring great challenge to water resource management. There is a certain uncertainty in the projection of temperature, precipitation and discharge, by contrast, uncertainty of discharge projection is far greater than that of other two meteorological elements. Compared with RCPs, GCMs are proved to be the main factor which are responsible for the impact uncertainty in CRB under two global warming horizons. The uncertainty will be larger as the warming magnitude increase. In a word

  4. The Potential of Brazil's Forest Sector for Mitigating Global Warming under the Kyoto Protocol

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fearnside, Philip M. [Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazonia INPA, Av. Andre Araujo, 1756, C.P. 478, 69011-970 Manaus-Amazonas (Brazil)

    2001-07-01

    Activities in Brazil's forest sector have substantial potential for mitigating global warming as well as additional environmental and other benefits. Silvicultural plantations of different types, reduced impact logging, and deforestation avoidance all have potential mitigation roles. The magnitude of the annual emission from recent rates of deforestation in Amazonia presents an opportunity for carbon (C) benefits through reducing current rates of deforestation. Measures related to Amazonian deforestation have greater potential carbon benefits than do options such as plantation silviculture, but much depends on how benefits are calculated. Procedures are needed for assessing the environmental and social impacts of Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects. 55 refs.

  5. Measuring and prediction of global solar ultraviolet radiation (0295-0385 μ m) under clear and cloudless skies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wright, Jaime

    2008-01-01

    Values of global solar ultraviolet radiation were measured with an ultraviolet radiometer and also predicted with a atmospheric spectral model. The values obtained with the atmospheric spectral model, based physically, were analyzed and compared with experimental values measured in situ. Measurements were performed for different zenith angles in conditions of clear skies in Heredia, Costa Rica. The necessary input data include latitude, altitude, surface albedo, Earth-Sun distance, as well as atmospheric characteristics: atmospheric turbidity, precipitable water and atmospheric ozone. The comparison between measured and predicted values have been successful. (author) [es

  6. How much does Clausius-Clapeyron law predict humidity and precipitation change under global warming in the Mediterranean region?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drobinski, Philippe; Da Silva, Nicolas; Bastin, Sophie; Muller, Caroline

    2017-04-01

    Extreme precipitation has been proposed to scale with the precipitable water content in the atmosphere. Assuming constant relative humidity, this implies an increase of precipitation extremes at a rate of about 7/degC globally as indicated by the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship. In this study, we examine the projected change and scaling of atmospheric humidity and precipitation in the Mediterranean region with respect to temperature using HyMeX/MED-CORDEX regional climate simulations, and give physical reasons causing departure from Clausius-Clapeyron scaling.

  7. Magnified Sediment Export of Small Mountainous Rivers in Taiwan: Chain Reactions from Increased Rainfall Intensity under Global Warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Tsung-Yu; Huang, Jr-Chuan; Lee, Jun-Yi; Jien, Shih-Hao; Zehetner, Franz; Kao, Shuh-Ji

    2015-01-01

    Fluvial sediment export from small mountainous rivers in Oceania has global biogeochemical significance affecting the turnover rate and export of terrestrial carbon, which might be speeding up at the recognized conditions of increased rainfall intensity. In this study, the historical runoff and sediment export from 16 major rivers in Taiwan are investigated and separated into an early stage (1970-1989) and a recent stage (1990-2010) to illustrate the changes of both runoff and sediment export. The mean daily sediment export from Taiwan Island in the recent stage significantly increased by >80% with subtle increase in daily runoff, indicating more sediment being delivered to the ocean per unit of runoff in the recent stage. The medians of the runoff depth and sediment yield extremes (99.0-99.9 percentiles) among the 16 rivers increased by 6.5%-37% and 62%-94%, respectively, reflecting the disproportionately magnified response of sediment export to the increased runoff. Taiwan is facing increasing event rainfall intensity which has resulted in chain reactions on magnified runoff and sediment export responses. As the globe is warming, rainfall extremes, which are proved to be temperature-dependent, very likely intensify runoff and trigger more sediment associated hazards. Such impacts might occur globally because significant increases of high-intensity precipitation have been observed not only in Taiwan but over most land areas of the globe.

  8. Global water balances reconstructed by multi-model offline simulations of land surface models under GSWP3 (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oki, T.; KIM, H.; Ferguson, C. R.; Dirmeyer, P.; Seneviratne, S. I.

    2013-12-01

    As the climate warms, the frequency and severity of flood and drought events is projected to increase. Understanding the role that the land surface will play in reinforcing or diminishing these extremes at regional scales will become critical. In fact, the current development path from atmospheric (GCM) to coupled atmosphere-ocean (AOGCM) to fully-coupled dynamic earth system models (ESMs) has brought new awareness to the climate modeling community of the abundance of uncertainty in land surface parameterizations. One way to test the representativeness of a land surface scheme is to do so in off-line (uncoupled) mode with controlled, high quality meteorological forcing. When multiple land schemes are run in-parallel (with the same forcing data), an inter-comparison of their outputs can provide the basis for model confidence estimates and future model refinements. In 2003, the Global Soil Wetness Project Phase 2 (GSWP2) provided the first global multi-model analysis of land surface state variables and fluxes. It spanned the decade of 1986-1995. While it was state-of-the art at the time, physical schemes have since been enhanced, a number of additional processes and components in the water-energy-eco-systems nexus can now be simulated, , and the availability of global, long-term observationally-based datasets that can be used for forcing and validating models has grown. Today, the data exists to support century-scale off-line experiments. The ongoing follow-on to GSWP2, named GSWP3, capitalizes on these new feasibilities and model functionalities. The project's cornerstone is its century-scale (1901-2010), 3-hourly, 0.5° meteorological forcing dataset that has been dynamically downscaled from the Twentieth Century Reanalysis and bias-corrected using monthly Climate Research Unit (CRU) temperature and Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) precipitation data. However, GSWP3 also has an important long-term future climate component that spans the 21st century

  9. Impacts on quality-induced water scarcity: drivers of nitrogen-related water pollution transfer under globalization from 1995 to 2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Liyang; Cai, Wenjia; Jiang, Yongkai; Wang, Can

    2016-07-01

    Globalization enables the transfer of impacts on water availability. We argue that the threat should be evaluated not only by decrease of quantity, but more importantly by the degradation of water quality in exporting countries. Grouping the world into fourteen regions, this paper establishes a multi-region input-output framework to calculate the nitrogen-related grey water footprint and a water quality-induced scarcity index caused by pollution, for the period of 1995 to 2009. It is discovered that grey water embodied in international trade has been growing faster than total grey water footprint. China, the USA and India were the three top grey water exporters which accounted for more than half the total traded grey water. Dilemma rose when China and India were facing highest grey water scarcity. The EU and the USA were biggest grey water importers that alleviated their water stress by outsourcing water pollution. A structural decomposition analysis is conducted to study the drivers to the evolution of virtual flows of grey water under globalization during the period of 1995 to 2009. The results show that despite the technical progress that offset the growth of traded grey water, structural effects under globalization including both evolution in the globalized economic system and consumption structure, together with consumption volume made a positive contribution. It is found that the structural effect intensified the pollution-induced water scarcity of exporters as it generally increased all nations’ imported grey water while resulting in increases in only a few nations’ exported grey water, such as Brazil, China and Indonesia. At last, drawing from the ‘cap-and-trade’ and ‘boarder-tax-adjustment’ schemes, we propose policy recommendations that ensure water security and achieve environmentally sustainable trade from both the sides of production and consumption.

  10. Global Analysis of Response in the Piezomagnetoelastic Energy Harvester System under Harmonic and Poisson White Noise Excitations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yue Xiao-Le; Xu Wei; Zhang Ying; Wang Liang

    2015-01-01

    The piezomagnetoelastic energy harvester system subjected to harmonic and Poisson white noise excitations is studied by using the generalized cell mapping method. The transient and stationary probability density functions (PDFs) of response based on the global viewpoint are obtained by the matrix analysis method. Monte Carlo simulation results verify the accuracy of this method. It can be observed that evolutionary direction of transient and stationary PDFs is in accordance with the unstable manifold for this system, and a stochastic P-bifurcation occurs as the intensity of Poisson white noise increases. This study presents an efficient numerical tool to solve the stochastic response of a three-dimensional dynamical system and provides a new idea to analyze the energy harvester system. (paper)

  11. Ocean cleaning stations under a changing climate: biological responses of tropical and temperate fish-cleaner shrimp to global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosa, Rui; Lopes, Ana Rita; Pimentel, Marta; Faleiro, Filipa; Baptista, Miguel; Trübenbach, Katja; Narciso, Luis; Dionísio, Gisela; Pegado, Maria Rita; Repolho, Tiago; Calado, Ricardo; Diniz, Mário

    2014-10-01

    Cleaning symbioses play an important role in the health of certain coastal marine communities. These interspecific associations often occur at specific sites (cleaning stations) where a cleaner organism (commonly a fish or shrimp) removes ectoparasites/damaged tissue from a 'client' (a larger cooperating fish). At present, the potential impact of climate change on the fitness of cleaner organisms remains unknown. This study investigated the physiological and biochemical responses of tropical (Lysmata amboinensis) and temperate (L. seticaudata) cleaner shrimp to global warming. Specifically, thermal limits (CTMax), metabolic rates, thermal sensitivity, heat shock response (HSR), lipid peroxidation [malondialdehyde (MDA) concentration], lactate levels, antioxidant (GST, SOD and catalase) and digestive enzyme activities (trypsin and alkaline phosphatase) at current and warming (+3 °C) temperature conditions. In contrast to the temperate species, CTMax values decreased significantly from current (24-27 °C) to warming temperature conditions (30 °C) for the tropical shrimp, where metabolic thermal sensitivity was affected and the HSR was significantly reduced. MDA levels in tropical shrimp increased dramatically, indicating extreme cellular lipid peroxidation, which was not observed in the temperate shrimp. Lactate levels, GST and SOD activities were significantly enhanced within the muscle tissue of the tropical species. Digestive enzyme activities in the hepatopancreas of both species were significantly decreased by warmer temperatures. Our data suggest that the tropical cleaner shrimp will be more vulnerable to global warming than the temperate Lysmata seticaudata; the latter evolved in a relatively unstable environment with seasonal thermal variations that may have conferred greater adaptive plasticity. Thus, tropical cleaning symbioses may be challenged at a greater degree by warming-related anthropogenic forcing, with potential cascading effects on the health

  12. Flood risk and adaptation strategies under climate change and urban expansion: A probabilistic analysis using global data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muis, Sanne; Güneralp, Burak; Jongman, Brenden; Aerts, Jeroen C J H; Ward, Philip J

    2015-12-15

    An accurate understanding of flood risk and its drivers is crucial for effective risk management. Detailed risk projections, including uncertainties, are however rarely available, particularly in developing countries. This paper presents a method that integrates recent advances in global-scale modeling of flood hazard and land change, which enables the probabilistic analysis of future trends in national-scale flood risk. We demonstrate its application to Indonesia. We develop 1000 spatially-explicit projections of urban expansion from 2000 to 2030 that account for uncertainty associated with population and economic growth projections, as well as uncertainty in where urban land change may occur. The projections show that the urban extent increases by 215%-357% (5th and 95th percentiles). Urban expansion is particularly rapid on Java, which accounts for 79% of the national increase. From 2000 to 2030, increases in exposure will elevate flood risk by, on average, 76% and 120% for river and coastal floods. While sea level rise will further increase the exposure-induced trend by 19%-37%, the response of river floods to climate change is highly uncertain. However, as urban expansion is the main driver of future risk, the implementation of adaptation measures is increasingly urgent, regardless of the wide uncertainty in climate projections. Using probabilistic urban projections, we show that spatial planning can be a very effective adaptation strategy. Our study emphasizes that global data can be used successfully for probabilistic risk assessment in data-scarce countries. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Water resources sensitivity to the isolated effects of land use, water demand and climate change under 2 degree global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bisselink, Berny; Bernhard, Jeroen; de Roo, Ad

    2017-04-01

    One of the key impacts of global change are the future water resources. These water resources are influenced by changes in land use (LU), water demand (WD) and climate change. Recent developments in scenario modelling opened new opportunities for an integrated assessment. However, for identifying water resource management strategies it is helpful to focus on the isolated effects of possible changes in LU, WD and climate that may occur in the near future. In this work, we quantify the isolated contribution of LU, WD and climate to the integrated total water resources assuming a linear model behavior. An ensemble of five EURO-CORDEX RCP8.5 climate projections for the 31-year periods centered on the year of exceeding the global-mean temperature of 2 degree is used to drive the fully distributed hydrological model LISFLOOD for multiple river catchments in Europe. The JRC's Land Use Modelling Platform LUISA was used to obtain a detailed pan-European reference land use scenario until 2050. Water demand is estimated based on socio-economic (GDP, population estimates etc.), land use and climate projections as well. For each climate projection, four model runs have been performed including an integrated (LU, WD and climate) simulation and other three simulations to isolate the effect of LU, WD and climate. Changes relative to the baseline in terms of water resources indicators of the ensemble means of the 2 degree warming period and their associated uncertainties will reveal the integrated and isolated effect of LU, WD and climate change on water resources.

  14. Globalization and Localization of Heritage Preservation in Taiwan – an Analysis Perspective under the Cultural Heritage Preservation Act

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C.-C. Chen

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The key contribution to the legislation of heritage preservation in Taiwan primarily derived from the historical monument movements in the 1970s. Specific legislation results include the establishment of Council for Cultural Affairs and the implementation of the Cultural Heritage Preservation Act in 1982. Although the Cultural Heritage Preservation Act is the first subjective cultural act, its lack of structure during the initial commencement stages made it un-conducive to heritage preservation and thus unable to meet the people’s expectations. Therefore, throughout the 33 years after the implementation of the Cultural Heritage Preservation Act, the Act has been amended 6 times. These amendments reflect the degree of importance that the society has attached to heritage preservation, and the innovative system also showcases the progress in preservation concepts and methods. These innovative orientations, such as emphasizing on the authenticity and integrity of heritage preservation, intangible cultural heritage, and cultural diversity, conform to the international preservation trends. They are also local trends such as encouraging community participation, adaptive-reuse, or enhancing the local governments’ powers to implement local cultural governance. This is particularly true for the fifth comprehensive revision in 2005, which has symbolic significance because its contents epitomized the heritage preservation work while moving Taiwan’s heritage preservation system towards globalization and localization. Therefore, we analyzed the Cultural Heritage Preservation Act amendment and revision processes over the past 33 years to highlight the innovations in Taiwan’s cultural heritage work and illustrate their globalization and localization features. Finally, we proposed recommendations for Taiwan’s preservation work in the future as the Cultural Heritage Preservation Act is about to undergo its seventh amendment in 2015.

  15. Global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the nitrate leaching and crop yield simulation under different water and nitrogen management practices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agricultural system models have become important tools in studying water and nitrogen (N) dynamics, as well as crop growth, under different management practices. Complexity in input parameters often leads to significant uncertainty when simulating dynamic processes such as nitrate leaching or crop y...

  16. Data analysis of the inactivation of foodborne microorganisms under high hydrostatic pressure to establish global kinetic parameters and influencing factors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Santillana Farakos, S.M.; Zwietering, M.H.

    2011-01-01

    The inactivation rate of foodborne microorganisms under high hydrostatic pressure (HHP) is influenced by factors such as substrate, species, strain, temperature, pH, and stage of growth of the cell. In this study, 445 DP-values from previously published data were analyzed, including those from

  17. Increasing Potential Risk of a Global Aquatic Invader in Europe in Contrast to Other Continents under Future Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Liu, Xuan; Guo, Zhongwei; Ke, Zunwei; Wang, Supen; Li, Yiming

    2011-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Anthropogenically-induced climate change can alter the current climatic habitat of non-native species and can have complex effects on potentially invasive species. Predictions of the potential distributions of invasive species under climate change will provide critical information for future conservation and management strategies. Aquatic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to invasive species and climate change, but the effect of climate change on invasive species distribution...

  18. Global models of ant diversity suggest regions where new discoveries are most likely are under disproportionate deforestation threat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guénard, Benoit; Weiser, Michael D; Dunn, Robert R

    2012-05-08

    Most of the described and probably undescribed species on Earth are insects. Global models of species diversity rarely focus on insects and none attempt to address unknown, undescribed diversity. We assembled a database representing about 13,000 records for ant generic distribution from over 350 regions that cover much of the globe. Based on two models of diversity and endemicity, we identified regions where our knowledge of ant diversity is most limited, regions we have called "hotspots of discovery." A priori, such regions might be expected to be remote and untouched. Instead, we found that the hotspots of discovery are also the regions in which biodiversity is the most threatened by habitat destruction. Our results not only highlight the immediate need for conservation of the remaining natural habitats in these regions, but also the extent to which, by focusing on well-known groups such as vertebrates, we may fail to conserve the far greater diversity of the smaller species yet to be found.

  19. Male circumcision: a globally relevant but under-utilized method for the prevention of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tobian, Aaron A R; Kacker, Seema; Quinn, Thomas C

    2014-01-01

    Randomized trials have demonstrated that male circumcision (MC) reduces heterosexual acquisition of HIV, herpes simplex virus type 2, human papillomavirus (HPV), and genital ulcer disease among men, and it reduces HPV, genital ulcer disease, bacterial vaginosis, and trichomoniasis among female partners. The pathophysiology behind these effects is multifactorial, relying on anatomic and cellular changes. MC is cost effective and potentially cost saving in both the United States and Africa. The World Health Organization and Joint United Nations Program on HIV/AIDS proposed reaching 80% MC coverage in HIV endemic countries, but current rates fall far behind targets. Barriers to scale-up include supply-side and demand-side challenges. In the United States, neonatal MC rates are decreasing, but the American Academy of Pediatrics now recognizes the medical benefits of MC and supports insurance coverage. Although MC is a globally valuable tool to prevent HIV and other sexually transmitted infections, it is underutilized. Further research is needed to address barriers to MC uptake.

  20. Ecological ethics in captivity: balancing values and responsibilities in zoo and aquarium research under rapid global change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minteer, Ben A; Collins, James P

    2013-01-01

    Ethical obligations to animals in conservation research and management are manifold and often conflicting. Animal welfare concerns often clash with the ethical imperative to understand and conserve a population or ecosystem through research and management intervention. The accelerating pace and impact of global environmental change, especially climate change, complicates our understanding of these obligations. One example is the blurring of the distinction between ex situ (zoo- and aquarium-based) conservation and in situ (field-based) approaches as zoos and aquariums become more active in field conservation work and as researchers and managers consider more intensive interventions in wild populations and ecosystems to meet key conservation goals. These shifts, in turn, have consequences for our traditional understanding of the ethics of wildlife research and management, including our relative weighting of animal welfare and conservation commitments across rapidly evolving ex situ and in situ contexts. Although this changing landscape in many ways supports the increased use of captive wildlife in conservation-relevant research, it raises significant ethical concerns about human intervention in populations and ecosystems, including the proper role of zoos and aquariums as centers for animal research and conservation in the coming decades. Working through these concerns requires a pragmatic approach to ethical analysis, one that is able to make trade-offs among the many goods at stake (e.g., animal welfare, species viability, and ecological integrity) as we strive to protect species from further decline and extinction in this century.

  1. Global warming feedbacks on terrestrial carbon uptake under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Emission Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joos, Fortunat; Prentice, I. Colin; Sitch, Stephen; Meyer, Robert; Hooss, Georg; Plattner, Gian-Kasper; Gerber, Stefan; Hasselmann, Klaus

    2001-12-01

    A coupled physical-biogeochemical climate model that includes a dynamic global vegetation model and a representation of a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model is driven by the nonintervention emission scenarios recently developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Atmospheric CO2, carbon sinks, radiative forcing by greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols, changes in the fields of surface-air temperature, precipitation, cloud cover, ocean thermal expansion, and vegetation structure are projected. Up to 2100, atmospheric CO2 increases to 540 ppm for the lowest and to 960 ppm for the highest emission scenario analyzed. Sensitivity analyses suggest an uncertainty in these projections of -10 to +30% for a given emission scenario. Radiative forcing is estimated to increase between 3 and 8 W m-2 between now and 2100. Simulated warmer conditions in North America and Eurasia affect ecosystem structure: boreal trees expand poleward in high latitudes and are partly replaced by temperate trees and grasses at lower latitudes. The consequences for terrestrial carbon storage depend on the assumed sensitivity of climate to radiative forcing, the sensitivity of soil respiration to temperature, and the rate of increase in radiative forcing by both CO2 and other GHGs. In the most extreme cases, the terrestrial biosphere becomes a source of carbon during the second half of the century. High GHG emissions and high contributions of non-CO2 agents to radiative forcing favor a transient terrestrial carbon source by enhancing warming and the associated release of soil carbon.

  2. High-resolution multimodel projections of soil moisture drought in Europe under 1.5, 2 and 3 degree global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samaniego, L. E.; Kumar, R.; Zink, M.; Pan, M.; Wanders, N.; Marx, A.; Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Thober, S.

    2017-12-01

    Droughts are creeping hydro-meteorological events that may bring societies and natural systems to their limits by inducing significant environmental changes and large socio-economic losses. Little is know about the effects of varios degrees of warming (i.e., 1.5 , 2 and 3 K) and their respective uncertainties on extreme characteristics such as drought duration and area under drought in general, and in Europe in particular. In this study we investigate the evolution of droughts characteristics under three levels of warming using an unprecedented high-resolution multi-model hydrologic ensemble over the Pan-EU domain at a scale of 5x5 km2 from 1950 until 2100. This multi-model ensemble comprises four hydrologic models (HMs: mHM, Noah-MP, PCR-GLOBWB, VIC) which are forced by five CMIP-5 Global Climate Models (GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, NorESM1-M) under three RCP scenarios 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5. This results in a 60-member ensemble. The contribution GCM/HM uncertainties were analyzed based on a sequential sampling algorithm proposed by Samaniego et al. 2016. This study is carried out within the EDgE project funded by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (edge.climate.copernicus.eu) and the HOKLIM project funded by the German Ministry of Education (BMBF)(www.ufz.de/hoklim). The changes under three levels of warming indicate significant increase (more than 10%) of the number of droughts and area under drought with respect to 30-year climatological means obtained with E-OBS observations. Furthermore, we found that: 1) the number of drought events exhibit significant regional changes. Largest changes are observed in the Mediterrinian where frequency of droughts increases from 25% under 1.5 K to 33% under 2 K, and to more than 50% under 3 K warming. Minor changes are seen in Central-Europe and the British Isles. 2) The GCMs/HMs uncertainties have marked regional differences too, with GCM uncertainty appear to be larger everywhere. The uncertainty of

  3. Modulation of global low-frequency motions underlies allosteric regulation: demonstration in CRP/FNR family transcription factors.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas L Rodgers

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Allostery is a fundamental process by which ligand binding to a protein alters its activity at a distinct site. There is growing evidence that allosteric cooperativity can be communicated by modulation of protein dynamics without conformational change. The mechanisms, however, for communicating dynamic fluctuations between sites are debated. We provide a foundational theory for how allostery can occur as a function of low-frequency dynamics without a change in structure. We have generated coarse-grained models that describe the protein backbone motions of the CRP/FNR family transcription factors, CAP of Escherichia coli and GlxR of Corynebacterium glutamicum. The latter we demonstrate as a new exemplar for allostery without conformation change. We observe that binding the first molecule of cAMP ligand is correlated with modulation of the global normal modes and negative cooperativity for binding the second cAMP ligand without a change in mean structure. The theory makes key experimental predictions that are tested through an analysis of variant proteins by structural biology and isothermal calorimetry. Quantifying allostery as a free energy landscape revealed a protein "design space" that identified the inter- and intramolecular regulatory parameters that frame CRP/FNR family allostery. Furthermore, through analyzing CAP variants from diverse species, we demonstrate an evolutionary selection pressure to conserve residues crucial for allosteric control. This finding provides a link between the position of CRP/FNR transcription factors within the allosteric free energy landscapes and evolutionary selection pressures. Our study therefore reveals significant features of the mechanistic basis for allostery. Changes in low-frequency dynamics correlate with allosteric effects on ligand binding without the requirement for a defined spatial pathway. In addition to evolving suitable three-dimensional structures, CRP/FNR family transcription factors have

  4. Modulation of global low-frequency motions underlies allosteric regulation: demonstration in CRP/FNR family transcription factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodgers, Thomas L; Townsend, Philip D; Burnell, David; Jones, Matthew L; Richards, Shane A; McLeish, Tom C B; Pohl, Ehmke; Wilson, Mark R; Cann, Martin J

    2013-09-01

    Allostery is a fundamental process by which ligand binding to a protein alters its activity at a distinct site. There is growing evidence that allosteric cooperativity can be communicated by modulation of protein dynamics without conformational change. The mechanisms, however, for communicating dynamic fluctuations between sites are debated. We provide a foundational theory for how allostery can occur as a function of low-frequency dynamics without a change in structure. We have generated coarse-grained models that describe the protein backbone motions of the CRP/FNR family transcription factors, CAP of Escherichia coli and GlxR of Corynebacterium glutamicum. The latter we demonstrate as a new exemplar for allostery without conformation change. We observe that binding the first molecule of cAMP ligand is correlated with modulation of the global normal modes and negative cooperativity for binding the second cAMP ligand without a change in mean structure. The theory makes key experimental predictions that are tested through an analysis of variant proteins by structural biology and isothermal calorimetry. Quantifying allostery as a free energy landscape revealed a protein "design space" that identified the inter- and intramolecular regulatory parameters that frame CRP/FNR family allostery. Furthermore, through analyzing CAP variants from diverse species, we demonstrate an evolutionary selection pressure to conserve residues crucial for allosteric control. This finding provides a link between the position of CRP/FNR transcription factors within the allosteric free energy landscapes and evolutionary selection pressures. Our study therefore reveals significant features of the mechanistic basis for allostery. Changes in low-frequency dynamics correlate with allosteric effects on ligand binding without the requirement for a defined spatial pathway. In addition to evolving suitable three-dimensional structures, CRP/FNR family transcription factors have been selected to

  5. Climate change under a scenario near 1.5 °C of global warming: monsoon intensification, ocean warming and steric sea level rise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Schewe

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available We present climatic consequences of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs using the coupled climate model CLIMBER-3α, which contains a statistical-dynamical atmosphere and a three-dimensional ocean model. We compare those with emulations of 19 state-of-the-art atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCM using MAGICC6. The RCPs are designed as standard scenarios for the forthcoming IPCC Fifth Assessment Report to span the full range of future greenhouse gas (GHG concentrations pathways currently discussed. The lowest of the RCP scenarios, RCP3-PD, is projected in CLIMBER-3α to imply a maximal warming by the middle of the 21st century slightly above 1.5 °C and a slow decline of temperatures thereafter, approaching today's level by 2500. We identify two mechanisms that slow down global cooling after GHG concentrations peak: The known inertia induced by mixing-related oceanic heat uptake; and a change in oceanic convection that enhances ocean heat loss in high latitudes, reducing the surface cooling rate by almost 50%. Steric sea level rise under the RCP3-PD scenario continues for 200 years after the peak in surface air temperatures, stabilizing around 2250 at 30 cm. This contrasts with around 1.3 m of steric sea level rise by 2250, and 2 m by 2500, under the highest scenario, RCP8.5. Maximum oceanic warming at intermediate depth (300–800 m is found to exceed that of the sea surface by the second half of the 21st century under RCP3-PD. This intermediate-depth warming persists for centuries even after surface temperatures have returned to present-day values, with potential consequences for marine ecosystems, oceanic methane hydrates, and ice-shelf stability. Due to an enhanced land-ocean temperature contrast, all scenarios yield an intensification of monsoon rainfall under global warming.

  6. Climate change under a scenario near 1.5 °C of global warming: monsoon intensification, ocean warming and steric sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schewe, J.; Levermann, A.; Meinshausen, M.

    2011-03-01

    We present climatic consequences of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) using the coupled climate model CLIMBER-3α, which contains a statistical-dynamical atmosphere and a three-dimensional ocean model. We compare those with emulations of 19 state-of-the-art atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCM) using MAGICC6. The RCPs are designed as standard scenarios for the forthcoming IPCC Fifth Assessment Report to span the full range of future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations pathways currently discussed. The lowest of the RCP scenarios, RCP3-PD, is projected in CLIMBER-3α to imply a maximal warming by the middle of the 21st century slightly above 1.5 °C and a slow decline of temperatures thereafter, approaching today's level by 2500. We identify two mechanisms that slow down global cooling after GHG concentrations peak: The known inertia induced by mixing-related oceanic heat uptake; and a change in oceanic convection that enhances ocean heat loss in high latitudes, reducing the surface cooling rate by almost 50%. Steric sea level rise under the RCP3-PD scenario continues for 200 years after the peak in surface air temperatures, stabilizing around 2250 at 30 cm. This contrasts with around 1.3 m of steric sea level rise by 2250, and 2 m by 2500, under the highest scenario, RCP8.5. Maximum oceanic warming at intermediate depth (300-800 m) is found to exceed that of the sea surface by the second half of the 21st century under RCP3-PD. This intermediate-depth warming persists for centuries even after surface temperatures have returned to present-day values, with potential consequences for marine ecosystems, oceanic methane hydrates, and ice-shelf stability. Due to an enhanced land-ocean temperature contrast, all scenarios yield an intensification of monsoon rainfall under global warming.

  7. Transformation of leaf litter by insect herbivory in the Subarctic: Consequences for soil biogeochemistry under global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kristensen, J. A.; Metcalfe, D. B.; Rousk, J.

    2017-12-01

    Climate warming may increase insect herbivore ranges and outbreak intensities in arctic ecosystems. Thorough understanding of the implications of these changes for ecosystem processes is essential to make accurate predictions of surface-atmosphere carbon (C) feedbacks. Yet, we lack a comprehensive understanding of the impacts of herbivore outbreaks on soil microbial underpinnings of C and nitrogen (N) fluxes. Here, we investigate the growth responses of heterotrophic soil decomposers and C and N mineralisation to simulated defoliator outbreaks in Subarctic birch forests. In microcosms, topsoil was incubated with leaf litter, insect frass, mineral N and combinations of the three; all was added in equal amounts of N. A higher fraction of added C and N was mineralised during outbreaks (frass addition) relative to non-outbreak years (litter addition). However, under high mineral N-availability in the soil of the kind likely under longer periods of enhanced insect herbivory (litter+mineral N), the mineralised fraction of added C decreased while the mineralised fraction of N increased substantially, which suggest a shift towards more N-mining of the organic substrates. This shift was accompanied by higher fungal dominance, and may facilitate soil C-accumulation assuming constant quality of C-inputs. Thus, long-term increases of insect herbivory, of the kind observed in some areas and projected by some models, may facilitate higher ecosystem C-sink capacity in this Subarctic ecosystem.

  8. Carbon exchange in biological soil crust communities under differential temperatures and soil water contents: implications for global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grote, Edmund E.; Belnap, Jayne; Housman, David C.; Sparks, Jed P.

    2010-01-01

    Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are an integral part of the soil system in arid regions worldwide, stabilizing soil surfaces, aiding vascular plant establishment, and are significant sources of ecosystem nitrogen and carbon. Hydration and temperature primarily control ecosystem CO2 flux in these systems. Using constructed mesocosms for incubations under controlled laboratory conditions, we examined the effect of temperature (5-35 1C) and water content (WC, 20-100%) on CO2 exchange in light cyanobacterially dominated) and dark cyanobacteria/lichen and moss dominated) biocrusts of the cool Colorado Plateau Desert in Utah and the hot Chihuahuan Desert in New Mexico. In light crusts from both Utah and New Mexico, net photosynthesis was highest at temperatures 430 1C. Net photosynthesis in light crusts from Utah was relatively insensitive to changes in soil moisture. In contrast, light crusts from New Mexico tended to exhibit higher rates of net photosynthesis at higher soil moisture. Dark crusts originating from both sites exhibited the greatest net photosynthesis at intermediate soil water content (40-60%). Declines in net photosynthesis were observed in dark crusts with crusts from Utah showing declines at temperatures 425 1C and those originating from New Mexico showing declines at temperatures 435 1C. Maximum net photosynthesis in all crust types from all locations were strongly influenced by offsets in the optimal temperature and water content for gross photosynthesis compared with dark respiration. Gross photosynthesis tended to be maximized at some intermediate value of temperature and water content and dark respiration tended to increase linearly. The results of this study suggest biocrusts are capable of CO2 exchange under a wide range of conditions. However, significant changes in the magnitude of this exchange should be expected for the temperature and precipitation changes suggested by current climate models.

  9. Trends, causes, and risk factors of mortality among children under 5 in Ethiopia, 1990-2013: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deribew, Amare; Tessema, Gizachew Assefa; Deribe, Kebede; Melaku, Yohannes Adama; Lakew, Yihunie; Amare, Azmeraw T; Abera, Semaw F; Mohammed, Mesoud; Hiruye, Abiy; Teklay, Efrem; Misganaw, Awoke; Kassebaum, Nicholas

    2016-01-01

    Ethiopia has made remarkable progress in reducing child mortality over the last two decades. However, the under-5 mortality rate in Ethiopia is still higher than the under-5 mortality rates of several low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). On the other hand, the patterns and causes of child mortality have not been well investigated in Ethiopia. The objective of this study was to investigate the mortality trend, causes of death, and risk factors among children under 5 in Ethiopia during 1990-2013. We used Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2013 data. Spatiotemporal Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) was applied to generate best estimates of child mortality with 95% uncertainty intervals (UI). Causes of death by age groups, sex, and year were measured using Cause of Death Ensemble modeling (CODEm). For estimation of HIV/AIDS mortality rate, the modified UNAIDS EPP-SPECTRUM suite model was used. Between 1990 and 2013 the under-5 mortality rate declined from 203.9 deaths/1000 live births to 74.4 deaths/1000 live births with an annual rate of change of 4.6%, yielding a total reduction of 64%. Similarly, child (1-4 years), post-neonatal, and neonatal mortality rates declined by 75%, 64%, and 52%, respectively, between 1990 and 2013. Lower respiratory tract infection (LRI), diarrheal diseases, and neonatal syndromes (preterm birth complications, neonatal encephalopathy, neonatal sepsis, and other neonatal disorders) accounted for 54% of the total under-5 deaths in 2013. Under-5 mortality rates due to measles, diarrhea, malaria, protein-energy malnutrition, and iron-deficiency anemia declined by more than two-thirds between 1990 and 2013. Among the causes of under-5 deaths, neonatal syndromes such as sepsis, preterm birth complications, and birth asphyxia ranked third to fifth in 2013. Of all risk-attributable deaths in 1990, 25% of the total under-5 deaths (112,288/435,962) and 48% (112,288/232,199) of the deaths due to diarrhea, LRI, and other common infections were

  10. Environmental boundaries of marine cladoceran distributions in the NW Mediterranean: Implications for their expansion under global warming

    KAUST Repository

    Atienza, Dacha

    2016-08-10

    We studied the horizontal and vertical distributions of marine cladocerans across the Catalan Sea shelf (NW Mediterranean) in July and September 2003, and in June and July 2004. At the seasonal scale, Penilia avirostris appears first in June in the southern region, where temperatures are warmer, and its populations develop northward during the summer. Evadne-Pseudevadne did not show a clear pattern, likely because several species were pooled. In 2003 successive heat waves affecting southwestern Europe resulted in surface seawater temperatures about 2 °C higher than usual across the whole study region. These high temperatures were associated with much lower abundance of P. avirostris. Overall, the mesoscale distributions of cladocerans were associated with the presence of low salinity, productive and stratified waters of continental origin, and negatively linked to the intrusion of offshore waters. On the vertical scale P. avirostris was located within or above the thermocline, whereas Evadne-Pseudevadne was much shallower; no evidence of diel migration was detected in either group. Our study provides new insights regarding the environmental limits for marine cladocerans in the NW Mediterranean; in the particular case of P. avirostris that knowledge can define the likely boundaries of its new distributions as it expands poleward under climate change. © 2016 Elsevier B.V.

  11. Projected changes of the low-latitude north-western Pacific wind-driven circulation under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, Jing; Chen, Zhaohui; Wu, Lixin

    2017-05-01

    Based on the outputs of 25 models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, the projected changes of the wind-driven circulation in the low-latitude north-western Pacific are evaluated. Results demonstrate that there will be a decrease in the mean transport of the North Equatorial Current (NEC), Mindanao Current, and Kuroshio Current in the east of the Philippines, accompanied by a northward shift of the NEC bifurcation Latitude (NBL) off the Philippine coast with over 30% increase in its seasonal south-north migration amplitude. Numerical simulations using a 1.5-layer nonlinear reduced-gravity ocean model show that the projected changes of the upper ocean circulation are predominantly determined by the robust weakening of the north-easterly trade winds and the associated wind stress curl under the El Niño-like warming pattern. The changes in the wind forcing and intensified upper ocean stratification are found equally important in amplifying the seasonal migration of the NBL.

  12. Global burden of sickle cell anaemia in children under five, 2010-2050: modelling based on demographics, excess mortality, and interventions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frédéric B Piel

    Full Text Available The global burden of sickle cell anaemia (SCA is set to rise as a consequence of improved survival in high-prevalence low- and middle-income countries and population migration to higher-income countries. The host of quantitative evidence documenting these changes has not been assembled at the global level. The purpose of this study is to estimate trends in the future number of newborns with SCA and the number of lives that could be saved in under-five children with SCA by the implementation of different levels of health interventions.First, we calculated projected numbers of newborns with SCA for each 5-y interval between 2010 and 2050 by combining estimates of national SCA frequencies with projected demographic data. We then accounted for under-five mortality (U5m projections and tested different levels of excess mortality for children with SCA, reflecting the benefits of implementing specific health interventions for under-five patients in 2015, to assess the number of lives that could be saved with appropriate health care services. The estimated number of newborns with SCA globally will increase from 305,800 (confidence interval [CI]: 238,400-398,800 in 2010 to 404,200 (CI: 242,500-657,600 in 2050. It is likely that Nigeria (2010: 91,000 newborns with SCA [CI: 77,900-106,100]; 2050: 140,800 [CI: 95,500-200,600] and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (2010: 39,700 [CI: 32,600-48,800]; 2050: 44,700 [CI: 27,100-70,500] will remain the countries most in need of policies for the prevention and management of SCA. We predict a decrease in the annual number of newborns with SCA in India (2010: 44,400 [CI: 33,700-59,100]; 2050: 33,900 [CI: 15,900-64,700]. The implementation of basic health interventions (e.g., prenatal diagnosis, penicillin prophylaxis, and vaccination for SCA in 2015, leading to significant reductions in excess mortality among under-five children with SCA, could, by 2050, prolong the lives of 5,302,900 [CI: 3

  13. Global burden of sickle cell anaemia in children under five, 2010-2050: modelling based on demographics, excess mortality, and interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piel, Frédéric B; Hay, Simon I; Gupta, Sunetra; Weatherall, David J; Williams, Thomas N

    2013-01-01

    The global burden of sickle cell anaemia (SCA) is set to rise as a consequence of improved survival in high-prevalence low- and middle-income countries and population migration to higher-income countries. The host of quantitative evidence documenting these changes has not been assembled at the global level. The purpose of this study is to estimate trends in the future number of newborns with SCA and the number of lives that could be saved in under-five children with SCA by the implementation of different levels of health interventions. First, we calculated projected numbers of newborns with SCA for each 5-y interval between 2010 and 2050 by combining estimates of national SCA frequencies with projected demographic data. We then accounted for under-five mortality (U5m) projections and tested different levels of excess mortality for children with SCA, reflecting the benefits of implementing specific health interventions for under-five patients in 2015, to assess the number of lives that could be saved with appropriate health care services. The estimated number of newborns with SCA globally will increase from 305,800 (confidence interval [CI]: 238,400-398,800) in 2010 to 404,200 (CI: 242,500-657,600) in 2050. It is likely that Nigeria (2010: 91,000 newborns with SCA [CI: 77,900-106,100]; 2050: 140,800 [CI: 95,500-200,600]) and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (2010: 39,700 [CI: 32,600-48,800]; 2050: 44,700 [CI: 27,100-70,500]) will remain the countries most in need of policies for the prevention and management of SCA. We predict a decrease in the annual number of newborns with SCA in India (2010: 44,400 [CI: 33,700-59,100]; 2050: 33,900 [CI: 15,900-64,700]). The implementation of basic health interventions (e.g., prenatal diagnosis, penicillin prophylaxis, and vaccination) for SCA in 2015, leading to significant reductions in excess mortality among under-five children with SCA, could, by 2050, prolong the lives of 5,302,900 [CI: 3,174,800-6,699,100] newborns with

  14. Explaining geographic gradients in winter selection of landscapes by boreal caribou with implications under global changes in Eastern Canada.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julien Beguin

    Full Text Available Many animal species exhibit broad-scale latitudinal or longitudinal gradients in their response to biotic and abiotic components of their habitat. Although knowing the underlying mechanism of these patterns can be critical to the development of sound measures for the preservation or recovery of endangered species, few studies have yet identified which processes drive the existence of geographical gradients in habitat selection. Using extensive spatial data of broad latitudinal and longitudinal extent, we tested three hypotheses that could explain the presence of geographical gradients in landscape selection of the endangered boreal woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou during winter in Eastern Canadian boreal forests: 1 climate-driven selection, which postulates that geographic gradients are surrogates for climatic gradients; 2 road-driven selection, which proposes that boreal caribou adjust their selection for certain habitat classes as a function of proximity to roads; and 3 an additive effect of both roads and climate. Our data strongly supported road-driven selection over climate influences. Thus, direct human alteration of landscapes drives boreal caribou distribution and should likely remain so until the climate changes sufficiently from present conditions. Boreal caribou avoided logged areas two-fold more strongly than burnt areas. Limiting the spread of road networks and accounting for the uneven impact of logging compared to wildfire should therefore be integral parts of any habitat management plan and conservation measures within the range of the endangered boreal caribou. The use of hierarchical spatial models allowed us to explore the distribution of spatially-structured errors in our models, which in turn provided valuable insights for generating alternative hypotheses about processes responsible for boreal caribou distribution.

  15. A review of thinning effects on Scots pine stands: From growth and yield to new challenges under global change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miren del Río, M.P.; Bravo-Oviedo, Andrés; Pretzsch, Hans; Löf, Magnus; Ruiz-Peinado, Ricardo

    2017-11-01

    provided valuable information about thinning effects, but new experiments which cover a broad range of ecosystem services under different site conditions are still needed.

  16. Nuclear position in power generation sector - under the pressure of anti-global warming and power market reform

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hayashi, Taizo

    2005-01-01

    The future structure surrounding fuel choice in power generation sector should be understood how to evaluate actual and potential merit and demerit both in economic and environmental aspects on nuclear power generation. That is i.e. nuclear can be understood as superior power source without GHGs and on the other hand, as unfavorable power source which might cause some critical dangers due to its hazardous radioactive nuclear waste. On this specific characteristic, this theme on fuel choice surrounding nuclear in power generation sector could be understood as a highly cultural problem as much as economic and political one. For instance, we can observe quite opposite direction with each other on nuclear power development in European countries like France and Finland on one hand and Germany and Sweden on the other hand. Looking at Asian countries, we also observe the very reality of high economic growth with rapid growth of electricity demand like China. What on earth, is it really possible without nuclear power source for such gigantic countries. I will develop my personal idea on nuclear power source based on Japanese experience towards successfully managing nuclear power technologies in the world, consisting of developing countries with growing economies and of advanced ones with rather matured nuclear technology under the pressure of environmentally restricted world order. My basic view point to discuss nuclear power problem has, conclusionally speaking, several aspects; The first one is in the relation with deregulation or liberalization of electricity market, which has been undergoing among such developed countries as OECD member countries i.e. USA, EU, Japan and other countries. Deregulation or liberalization of electricity market seems to be the inevitable process towards more matured market economy among developed countries group, and that process inevitably forces management of power companies towards more near sighted attitude if those companies are

  17. How agro-ecological research helps to address food security issues under new IPM and pesticide reduction policies for global crop production systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    E Birch, A Nicholas; Begg, Graham S; Squire, Geoffrey R

    2011-06-01

    Drivers behind food security and crop protection issues are discussed in relation to food losses caused by pests. Pests globally consume food estimated to feed an additional one billion people. Key drivers include rapid human population increase, climate change, loss of beneficial on-farm biodiversity, reduction in per capita cropped land, water shortages, and EU pesticide withdrawals under policies relating to 91/414 EEC. IPM (Integrated Pest Management) will be compulsory for all EU agriculture by 2014 and is also being widely adopted globally. IPM offers a 'toolbox' of complementary crop- and region-specific crop protection solutions to address these rising pressures. IPM aims for more sustainable solutions by using complementary technologies. The applied research challenge now is to reduce selection pressure on single solution strategies, by creating additive/synergistic interactions between IPM components. IPM is compatible with organic, conventional, and GM cropping systems and is flexible, allowing regional fine-tuning. It reduces pests below economic thresholds utilizing key 'ecological services', particularly biocontrol. A recent global review demonstrates that IPM can reduce pesticide use and increase yields of most of the major crops studied. Landscape scale 'ecological engineering', together with genetic improvement of new crop varieties, will enhance the durability of pest-resistant cultivars (conventional and GM). IPM will also promote compatibility with semiochemicals, biopesticides, precision pest monitoring tools, and rapid diagnostics. These combined strategies are urgently needed and are best achieved via multi-disciplinary research, including complex spatio-temporal modelling at farm and landscape scales. Integrative and synergistic use of existing and new IPM technologies will help meet future food production needs more sustainably in developed and developing countries, in an era of reduced pesticide availability. Current IPM research gaps are

  18. Global-scale projection and its sensitivity analysis of the health burden attributable to childhood undernutrition under the latest scenario framework for climate change research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ishida, Hiroyuki; Kobayashi, Shota; Kanae, Shinjiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Masui, Toshihiko; Shin, Yonghee; Tanaka, Akemi; Honda, Yasushi

    2014-01-01

    This study assessed the health burden attributable to childhood underweight through 2050 focusing on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), by considering the latest scenarios for climate change studies (representative concentration pathways and shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs)) and conducting sensitivity analysis. A regression model for estimating DALYs attributable to childhood underweight (DAtU) was developed using the relationship between DAtU and childhood stunting. We combined a global computable general equilibrium model, a crop model, and two regression models to assess the future health burden. We found that (i) world total DAtU decreases from 2005 by 28 ∼ 63% in 2050 depending on the socioeconomic scenarios. Per capita DAtU also decreases in all regions under either scenario in 2050, but the decreases vary significantly by regions and scenarios. (ii) The impact of climate change is relatively small in the framework of this study but, on the other hand, socioeconomic conditions have a great impact on the future health burden. (iii) Parameter uncertainty of the regression models is the second largest factor on uncertainty of the result following the changes in socioeconomic condition, and uncertainty derived from the difference in global circulation models is the smallest in the framework of this study. (letters)

  19. Possible change in distribution of seaweed, Sargassum horneri, in northeast Asia under A2 scenario of global warming and consequent effect on some fish.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komatsu, Teruhisa; Fukuda, Masahiro; Mikami, Atsuko; Mizuno, Shizuha; Kantachumpoo, Attachai; Tanoue, Hideaki; Kawamiya, Michio

    2014-08-30

    Global warming effects on seaweed beds are already perceptible. Their geographical distributions greatly depend on water temperatures. To predict future geographical distributions of brown alga, Sargassum horneri, forming large beds in the northwestern Pacific, we referred to future monthly surface water temperatures at about 1.1° of longitude and 0.6° of latitude in February and August in 2050 and 2100 simulated by 12 organizations under an A2 scenario of global warming. The southern limit of S. horneri distribution is expected to keep moving northward such that it may broadly disappear from Honshu Island, the Chinese coast, and Korean Peninsula in 2100, when tropical Sargassum species such as Sargassum tenuifolium may not completely replace S. horneri. Thus, their forests in 2100 do not substitute those of S. horneri in 2000. Fishes using the beds and seaweed rafts consisting of S. horneri in East China Sea suffer these disappearances. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  20. Global-scale projection and its sensitivity analysis of the health burden attributable to childhood undernutrition under the latest scenario framework for climate change research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishida, Hiroyuki; Kobayashi, Shota; Kanae, Shinjiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Shin, Yonghee; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Masui, Toshihiko; Tanaka, Akemi; Honda, Yasushi

    2014-05-01

    This study assessed the health burden attributable to childhood underweight through 2050 focusing on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), by considering the latest scenarios for climate change studies (representative concentration pathways and shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs)) and conducting sensitivity analysis. A regression model for estimating DALYs attributable to childhood underweight (DAtU) was developed using the relationship between DAtU and childhood stunting. We combined a global computable general equilibrium model, a crop model, and two regression models to assess the future health burden. We found that (i) world total DAtU decreases from 2005 by 28 ˜ 63% in 2050 depending on the socioeconomic scenarios. Per capita DAtU also decreases in all regions under either scenario in 2050, but the decreases vary significantly by regions and scenarios. (ii) The impact of climate change is relatively small in the framework of this study but, on the other hand, socioeconomic conditions have a great impact on the future health burden. (iii) Parameter uncertainty of the regression models is the second largest factor on uncertainty of the result following the changes in socioeconomic condition, and uncertainty derived from the difference in global circulation models is the smallest in the framework of this study.

  1. THE KETS ETHNOS AND ITS “FEEDING LANDSCAPE”: ECOLOGICAL-GEOGRAPHICAL AND SOCIO-ECOLOGICAL PROBLEMS UNDER GLOBALIZATION AND CHANGING CLIMATE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexey Medvedkov

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper discusses the modern state of the Kets ethnos, its cultural heritage, and existing problems. The paper analyzes the role of social factors in the transformation of traditional economy and the Kets philosophy at the modern stage. Using analysis of the data collected, the climatic impact on the traditional resource use of the Kets people has been identified. The paper suggests possible ways of diversification of traditional Kets economy under the existing organization of economy in the remote regions of the country. Global climate warming increases the dependency of traditional Kets economy on the environmental and geographical factors (natural-environmental resources of the taiga, natural disasters, natural risks of different origin, etc..

  2. Predicting the variation in Echinogammarus marinus at its southernmost limits under global warming scenarios: can the sex-ratio make a difference?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guerra, Alexandra; Leite, Nuno; Marques, João Carlos; Ford, Alex T; Martins, Irene

    2014-01-01

    Understanding the environmental parameters that constrain the distribution of a species at its latitudinal extremes is critical for predicting how ecosystems react to climate change. Our first aim was to predict the variation in the amphipod populations of Echinogammarus marinus from the southernmost limit of its distribution under global warming scenarios. Our second aim was to test whether sex-ratio fluctuations - a mechanism frequently displayed by amphipods - respond to the variations in populations under altered climate conditions. To achieve these aims, scenarios were run with a validated model of E. marinus populations. Simulations were divided into: phase I - simulation of the effect of climate change on amphipod populations, and phase II - simulation of the effect of climate change on populations with male and female proportions. In both phases, temperature (T), salinity (S) and temperature and salinity (T-S) were tested. Results showed that E. marinus populations are highly sensitive to increases in temperature (>2 °C), which has adverse effects on amphipod recruitment and growth. Results from the climate change scenarios coupled with the sex-ratio fluctuations depended largely on the degree of female bias within population. Temperature increase of 2 °C had less impact on female-biased populations, particularly when conjugated with increases in salinity. Male-biased populations were highly sensitive to any variation in temperature and/or salinity; these populations exhibited a long-term decline in density. Simulations in which temperature increased more than 4 °C led to a continuous decline in the E. marinus population. According to this work, E. marinus populations at their southernmost limit are vulnerable to global warming. We anticipate that in Europe, temperature increases of 2 °C will incite a withdrawal of the population of 5°N from the amphipod species located at southernmost geographical borders. This effect is discussed in relation to the

  3. Multi-model ensemble simulations of low flows in Europe under a 1.5, 2, and 3 degree global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marx, A.; Kumar, R.; Thober, S.; Zink, M.; Wanders, N.; Wood, E. F.; Pan, M.; Sheffield, J.; Samaniego, L. E.

    2017-12-01

    There is growing evidence that climate change will alter water availability in Europe. Here, we investigate how hydrological low flows are affected under different levels of future global warming (i.e., 1.5, 2 and 3 K). The analysis is based on a multi-model ensemble of 45 hydrological simulations based on three RCPs (rcp2p6, rcp6p0, rcp8p5), five CMIP5 GCMs (GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, NorESM1-M) and three state-of-the-art hydrological models (HMs: mHM, Noah-MP, and PCR-GLOBWB). High resolution model results are available at the unprecedented spatial resolution of 5 km across the pan-European domain at daily temporal resolution. Low river flow is described as the percentile of daily streamflow that is exceeded 90% of the time. It is determined separately for each GCM/HM combinations and the warming scenarios. The results show that the change signal amplifies with increasing warming levels. Low flows decrease in the Mediterranean, while they increase in the Alpine and Northern regions. In the Mediterranean, the level of warming amplifies the signal from -12% under 1.5 K to -35% under 3 K global warming largely due to the projected decreases in annual precipitation. In contrast, the signal is amplified from +22% (1.5 K) to +45% (3 K) because of the reduced snow melt contribution. The changes in low flows are significant for regions with relatively large change signals and under higher levels of warming. Nevertheless, it is not possible to distinguish climate induced differences in low flows between 1.5 and 2 K warming because of the large variability inherent in the multi-model ensemble. The contribution by the GCMs to the uncertainty in the Alpine and Northern region as well as the Mediterranean, the uncertainty contribution by the HMs is partly higher than those by the GCMs due to different representations of processes such as snow, soil moisture and evapotranspiration.

  4. Global warming potential and greenhouse gas emission under different soil nutrient management practices in soybean-wheat system of central India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenka, Sangeeta; Lenka, Narendra Kumar; Singh, Amar Bahadur; Singh, B; Raghuwanshi, Jyothi

    2017-02-01

    Soil nutrient management is a key component contributing to the greenhouse gas (GHG) flux and mitigation potential of agricultural production systems. However, the effect of soil nutrient management practices on GHG flux and global warming potential (GWP) is less understood in agricultural soils of India. The present study was conducted to compare three nutrient management systems practiced for nine consecutive years in a soybean-wheat cropping system in the Vertisols of India, in terms of GHG flux and GWP. The treatments were composed of 100% organic (ONM), 100% inorganic (NPK), and integrated nutrient management (INM) with 50% organic + 50% inorganic inputs. The gas samples for GHGs (CO 2 , CH 4 , and N 2 O) were collected by static chamber method at about 15-day interval during 2012-13 growing season. The change in soil organic carbon (SOC) content was estimated in terms of the changes in SOC stock in the 0-15 cm soil over the 9-year period covering 2004 to 2013. There was a net uptake of CH 4 in all the treatments in both soybean and wheat crop seasons. The cumulative N 2 O and CO 2 emissions were in the order of INM > ONM > NPK with significant difference between treatments (p < 0.05) in both the crop seasons. The annual GWP, expressed in terms of CH 4 and N 2 O emission, also followed the same trend and was estimated to be 1126, 1002, and 896 kg CO 2 eq ha -1  year -1 under INM, ONM, and NPK treatments, respectively. However, the change in SOC stock was significantly higher under ONM (1250 kg ha -1  year -1 ) followed by INM (417 kg ha -1  year -1 ) and least under NPK (198 kg ha -1  year -1 ) treatment. The wheat equivalent yield was similar under ONM and INM treatments and was significantly lower under NPK treatment. Thus, the GWP per unit grain yield was lower under ONM followed by NPK and INM treatments and varied from 250, 261, and 307 kg CO 2 eq Mg -1 grain yield under ONM, NPK, and INM treatments, respectively.

  5. National, regional, and global sex ratios of infant, child, and under-5 mortality and identification of countries with outlying ratios: a systematic assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alkema, Leontine; Chao, Fengqing; You, Danzhen; Pedersen, Jon; Sawyer, Cheryl C

    2014-09-01

    Under natural circumstances, the sex ratio of male to female mortality up to the age of 5 years is greater than one but sex discrimination can change sex ratios. The estimation of mortality by sex and identification of countries with outlying levels is challenging because of issues with data availability and quality, and because sex ratios might vary naturally based on differences in mortality levels and associated cause of death distributions. For this systematic analysis, we estimated country-specific mortality sex ratios for infants, children aged 1-4 years, and children under the age of 5 years (under 5s) for all countries from 1990 (or the earliest year of data collection) to 2012 using a Bayesian hierarchical time series model, accounting for various data quality issues and assessing the uncertainty in sex ratios. We simultaneously estimated the global relation between sex ratios and mortality levels and constructed estimates of expected and excess female mortality rates to identify countries with outlying sex ratios. Global sex ratios in 2012 were 1·13 (90% uncertainty interval 1·12-1·15) for infants, 0·95 (0·93-0·97) for children aged 1-5 years, and 1·08 (1·07-1·09) for under 5s, an increase since 1990 of 0·01 (-0·01 to 0·02) for infants, 0·04 (0·02 to 0·06) for children aged 1-4 years, and 0·02 (0·01 to 0·04) for under 5s. Levels and trends varied across regions and countries. Sex ratios were lowest in southern Asia for 1990 and 2012 for all age groups. Highest sex ratios were seen in developed regions and the Caucasus and central Asia region. Decreasing mortality was associated with increasing sex ratios, except at very low infant mortality, where sex ratios decreased with total mortality. For 2012, we identified 15 countries with outlying under-5 sex ratios, of which ten countries had female mortality higher than expected (Afghanistan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, China, Egypt, India, Iran, Jordan, Nepal, and Pakistan). Although excess female

  6. Capparis spinosa L. in A Systematic Review: A Xerophilous Species of Multi Values and Promising Potentialities for Agrosystems under the Threat of Global Warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chedraoui, Stephanie; Abi-Rizk, Alain; El-Beyrouthy, Marc; Chalak, Lamis; Ouaini, Naim; Rajjou, Loïc

    2017-01-01

    Caper ( Capparis spinosa L.) is a xerophytic shrub with a remarkable adaptability to harsh environments. This plant species is of great interest for its medicinal/pharmacological properties and its culinary uses. Its phytochemical importance relies on many bioactive components present in different organs and its cultivation can be of considerable economic value. Moreover, taxonomic identification of C. spinosa L. has been difficult due to its wide heterogeneity, and many authors fell into confusion due to the scarcity of genetic studies. The present review summarizes information concerning C. spinosa L. including agronomic performance, botanical description, taxonomical approaches, traditional pharmacological uses, phytochemical evaluation and genetic studies. This knowledge represents an important tool for further research studies and agronomic development on this indigenous species with respect to the emerging climatic change in the Eastern Mediterranean countries. Indeed, this world region is particularly under the threat of global warming and it appears necessary to rethink agricultural systems to adapt them to current and futures challenging environmental conditions. Capparis spinosa L. could be a part of this approach. So, this review presents a state of the art considering caper as a potential interesting crop under arid or semi-arid regions (such as Eastern Mediterranean countries) within the climate change context. The aim is to raise awareness in the scientific community (geneticists, physiologists, ecophysiologists, agronomists, …) about the caper strengths and interest to the development of this shrub as a crop.

  7. Capparis spinosa L. in A Systematic Review: A Xerophilous Species of Multi Values and Promising Potentialities for Agrosystems under the Threat of Global Warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephanie Chedraoui

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Caper (Capparis spinosa L. is a xerophytic shrub with a remarkable adaptability to harsh environments. This plant species is of great interest for its medicinal/pharmacological properties and its culinary uses. Its phytochemical importance relies on many bioactive components present in different organs and its cultivation can be of considerable economic value. Moreover, taxonomic identification of C. spinosa L. has been difficult due to its wide heterogeneity, and many authors fell into confusion due to the scarcity of genetic studies. The present review summarizes information concerning C. spinosa L. including agronomic performance, botanical description, taxonomical approaches, traditional pharmacological uses, phytochemical evaluation and genetic studies. This knowledge represents an important tool for further research studies and agronomic development on this indigenous species with respect to the emerging climatic change in the Eastern Mediterranean countries. Indeed, this world region is particularly under the threat of global warming and it appears necessary to rethink agricultural systems to adapt them to current and futures challenging environmental conditions. Capparis spinosa L. could be a part of this approach. So, this review presents a state of the art considering caper as a potential interesting crop under arid or semi-arid regions (such as Eastern Mediterranean countries within the climate change context. The aim is to raise awareness in the scientific community (geneticists, physiologists, ecophysiologists, agronomists, … about the caper strengths and interest to the development of this shrub as a crop.

  8. Trends, causes, and risk factors of mortality among children under 5 in Ethiopia, 1990–2013: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amare Deribew

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Ethiopia has made remarkable progress in reducing child mortality over the last two decades. However, the under-5 mortality rate in Ethiopia is still higher than the under-5 mortality rates of several low- and middle-income countries (LMIC. On the other hand, the patterns and causes of child mortality have not been well investigated in Ethiopia. The objective of this study was to investigate the mortality trend, causes of death, and risk factors among children under 5 in Ethiopia during 1990–2013. Methods We used Global Burden of Disease (GBD 2013 data. Spatiotemporal Gaussian Process Regression (GPR was applied to generate best estimates of child mortality with 95% uncertainty intervals (UI. Causes of death by age groups, sex, and year were measured using Cause of Death Ensemble modeling (CODEm. For estimation of HIV/AIDS mortality rate, the modified UNAIDS EPP-SPECTRUM suite model was used. Results Between 1990 and 2013 the under-5 mortality rate declined from 203.9 deaths/1000 live births to 74.4 deaths/1000 live births with an annual rate of change of 4.6%, yielding a total reduction of 64%. Similarly, child (1–4 years, post-neonatal, and neonatal mortality rates declined by 75%, 64%, and 52%, respectively, between 1990 and 2013. Lower respiratory tract infection (LRI, diarrheal diseases, and neonatal syndromes (preterm birth complications, neonatal encephalopathy, neonatal sepsis, and other neonatal disorders accounted for 54% of the total under-5 deaths in 2013. Under-5 mortality rates due to measles, diarrhea, malaria, protein-energy malnutrition, and iron-deficiency anemia declined by more than two-thirds between 1990 and 2013. Among the causes of under-5 deaths, neonatal syndromes such as sepsis, preterm birth complications, and birth asphyxia ranked third to fifth in 2013. Of all risk-attributable deaths in 1990, 25% of the total under-5 deaths (112,288/435,962 and 48% (112,288/232,199 of the deaths due to

  9. Global, regional, and national causes of under-5 mortality in 2000-15: an updated systematic analysis with implications for the Sustainable Development Goals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Li; Oza, Shefali; Hogan, Dan; Chu, Yue; Perin, Jamie; Zhu, Jun; Lawn, Joy E; Cousens, Simon; Mathers, Colin; Black, Robert E

    2016-12-17

    Despite remarkable progress in the improvement of child survival between 1990 and 2015, the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 4 target of a two-thirds reduction of under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) was not achieved globally. In this paper, we updated our annual estimates of child mortality by cause to 2000-15 to reflect on progress toward the MDG 4 and consider implications for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) target for child survival. We increased the estimation input data for causes of deaths by 43% among neonates and 23% among 1-59-month-olds, respectively. We used adequate vital registration (VR) data where available, and modelled cause-specific mortality fractions applying multinomial logistic regressions using adequate VR for low U5MR countries and verbal autopsy data for high U5MR countries. We updated the estimation to use Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate in place of malaria index in the modelling of malaria deaths; to use adjusted empirical estimates instead of modelled estimates for China; and to consider the effects of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine and rotavirus vaccine in the estimation. In 2015, among the 5·9 million under-5 deaths, 2·7 million occurred in the neonatal period. The leading under-5 causes were preterm birth complications (1·055 million [95% uncertainty range (UR) 0·935-1·179]), pneumonia (0·921 million [0·812 -1·117]), and intrapartum-related events (0·691 million [0·598 -0·778]). In the two MDG regions with the most under-5 deaths, the leading cause was pneumonia in sub-Saharan Africa and preterm birth complications in southern Asia. Reductions in mortality rates for pneumonia, diarrhoea, neonatal intrapartum-related events, malaria, and measles were responsible for 61% of the total reduction of 35 per 1000 livebirths in U5MR in 2000-15. Stratified by U5MR, pneumonia was the leading cause in countries with very high U5MR. Preterm birth complications and pneumonia were both important in high, medium high, and medium

  10. Hurricane Matthew (2016) and its Storm Surge Inundation under Global Warming Scenarios: Application of an Interactively Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jisan, M. A.; Bao, S.; Pietrafesa, L.; Pullen, J.

    2017-12-01

    An interactively coupled atmosphere-ocean model was used to investigate the impacts of future ocean warming, both at the surface and the layers below, on the track and intensity of a hurricane and its associated storm surge and inundation. The category-5 hurricane Matthew (2016), which made landfall on the South Carolina coast of the United States, was used for the case study. Future ocean temperature changes and sea level rise (SLR) were estimated based on the projection of Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'s Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5. After being validated with the present-day observational data, the model was applied to simulate the changes in track, intensity, storm surge and inundation that Hurricane Matthew would cause under future climate change scenarios. It was found that a significant increase in hurricane intensity, storm surge water level, and inundation area for Hurricane Matthew under future ocean warming and SLR scenarios. For example, under the RCP 8.5 scenario, the maximum wind speed would increase by 17 knots (14.2%), the minimum sea level pressure would decrease by 26 hPa (2.85%), and the inundated area would increase by 401 km2 (123%). By including the effect of SLR for the middle-21st-century scenario, the inundated area will further increase by up to 49.6%. The increase in the hurricane intensity and the inundated area was also found for the RCP 2.6 scenario. The response of sea surface temperature was analyzed to investigate the change in intensity. A comparison was made between the impacts when only the sea surface warming is considered versus when both the sea surface and the underneath layers are considered. These results showed that even without the effect of SLR, the storm surge level and the inundated area would be higher due to the increased hurricane intensity under the influence of the future warmer ocean temperature. The coupled effect of ocean warming and SLR would cause the

  11. Climate change alters low flows in Europe under global warming of 1.5, 2, and 3 °C

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Marx

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available There is growing evidence that climate change will alter water availability in Europe. Here, we investigate how hydrological low flows are affected under different levels of future global warming (i.e. 1.5, 2, and 3 K with respect to the pre-industrial period in rivers with a contributing area of more than 1000 km2. The analysis is based on a multi-model ensemble of 45 hydrological simulations based on three representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP6.0, RCP8.5, five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5 general circulation models (GCMs: GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, NorESM1-M and three state-of-the-art hydrological models (HMs: mHM, Noah-MP, and PCR-GLOBWB. High-resolution model results are available at a spatial resolution of 5 km across the pan-European domain at a daily temporal resolution. Low river flow is described as the percentile of daily streamflow that is exceeded 90 % of the time. It is determined separately for each GCM/HM combination and warming scenario. The results show that the low-flow change signal amplifies with increasing warming levels. Low flows decrease in the Mediterranean region, while they increase in the Alpine and Northern regions. In the Mediterranean, the level of warming amplifies the signal from −12 % under 1.5 K, compared to the baseline period 1971–2000, to −35 % under global warming of 3 K, largely due to the projected decreases in annual precipitation. In contrast, the signal is amplified from +22 (1.5 K to +45 % (3 K in the Alpine region due to changes in snow accumulation. The changes in low flows are significant for regions with relatively large change signals and under higher levels of warming. However, it is not possible to distinguish climate-induced differences in low flows between 1.5 and 2 K warming because of (1 the large inter-annual variability which prevents distinguishing statistical estimates of period

  12. Global warming potential of material fractions occurring in source-separated organic household waste treated by anaerobic digestion or incineration under different framework conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naroznova, Irina; Møller, Jacob; Scheutz, Charlotte

    2016-12-01

    This study compared the environmental profiles of anaerobic digestion (AD) and incineration, in relation to global warming potential (GWP), for treating individual material fractions that may occur in source-separated organic household waste (SSOHW). Different framework conditions representative for the European Union member countries were considered. For AD, biogas utilisation with a biogas engine was considered and two potential situations investigated - biogas combustion with (1) combined heat and power production (CHP) and (2) electricity production only. For incineration, four technology options currently available in Europe were covered: (1) an average incinerator with CHP production, (2) an average incinerator with mainly electricity production, (3) an average incinerator with mainly heat production and (4) a state-of-the art incinerator with CHP working at high energy recovery efficiencies. The study was performed using a life cycle assessment in its consequential approach. Furthermore, the role of waste-sorting guidelines (defined by the material fractions allowed for SSOHW) in relation to GWP of treating overall SSOHW with AD was investigated. A case-study of treating 1tonne of SSOHW under framework conditions in Denmark was conducted. Under the given assumptions, vegetable food waste was the only material fraction which was always better for AD compared to incineration. For animal food waste, kitchen tissue, vegetation waste and dirty paper, AD utilisation was better unless it was compared to a highly efficient incinerator. Material fractions such as moulded fibres and dirty cardboard were attractive for AD, albeit only when AD with CHP and incineration with mainly heat production were compared. Animal straw, in contrast, was always better to incinerate. Considering the total amounts of individual material fractions in waste generated within households in Denmark, food waste (both animal and vegetable derived) and kitchen tissue are the main material

  13. Toxicity of a metal(loid)-polluted agricultural soil to Enchytraeus crypticus changes under a global warming perspective: Variations in air temperature and soil moisture content.

    Science.gov (United States)

    González-Alcaraz, M Nazaret; van Gestel, Cornelis A M

    2016-12-15

    This study aimed to assess how the current global warming perspective, with increasing air temperature (20°C vs. 25°C) and decreasing soil moisture content (50% vs. 30% of the soil water holding capacity, WHC), affected the toxicity of a metal(loid)-polluted agricultural soil to Enchytraeus crypticus. Enchytraeids were exposed for 21d to a dilution series of the agricultural soil with Lufa 2.2 control soil under four climate situations: 20°C+50% WHC (standard conditions), 20°C+30% WHC, 25°C+50% WHC, and 25°C+30% WHC. Survival, reproduction and bioaccumulation of As, Cd, Co, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn were obtained as endpoints. Reproduction was more sensitive to both climate factors and metal(loid) pollution. High soil salinity (electrical conductivity~3dSm -1 ) and clay texture, even without the presence of high metal(loid) concentrations, affected enchytraeid performance especially at drier conditions (≥80% reduction in reproduction). The toxicity of the agricultural soil increased at drier conditions (10% reduction in EC10 and EC50 values for the effect on enchytraeid reproduction). Changes in enchytraeid performance were accompanied by changes in As, Fe, Mn, Pb and Zn bioaccumulation, with lower body concentrations at drier conditions probably due to greater competition with soluble salts in the case of Fe, Mn, Pb and Zn. This study shows that apart from high metal(loid) concentrations other soil properties (e.g. salinity and texture) may be partially responsible for the toxicity of metal(loid)-polluted soils to soil invertebrates, especially under changing climate conditions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Why tell children: A synthesis of the global literature on reasons for disclosing or not disclosing an HIV diagnosis to children 12 and under

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beatrice J. Krauss

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available While the psychological and health benefits of knowing one’s HIV diagnosis have been documented for adults and adolescents, practice is still in development for younger children. Moderating conditions for whether or not to tell a child he/she has HIV vary by region and local context. They include accessibility of treatment, consideration of HIV as a stigmatizing condition, prevalence of HIV and an accompanying presumption that any illness is HIV-related, parent or caregiver concerns about child reactions, child’s worsening health, assumptions about childhood and child readiness to know a diagnosis, and lack of policies such as those that would prevent bullying of affected children in schools. In this systematic review of the global literature, we summarize the reasons caregivers give for telling or not telling children 12 and under their HIV diagnosis. We also include articles in which children reflect on their desires for being told. While a broad number of reasons are given for telling a child—e.g., to aid in prevention, adaptation to illness (e.g., primarily to promote treatment adherence, understanding social reactions, and maintaining the child-adult relationship—a narrower range of reasons, often related to immediate child or caregiver well-being or discomfort, are given for not telling. Recommendations are made to improve the context for disclosure by providing supports before, during and after disclosure and to advance the research agenda by broadening samples and refining approaches.

  15. Analysis of Dynamic Characteristic for Solar Arrays in Series and Global Maximum Power Point Tracking Based on Optimal Initial Value Incremental Conductance Strategy under Partially Shaded Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Zhao

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Partial shading (PS is an unavoidable condition which significantly reduces the efficiency and stability of a photovoltaic (PV system. With PS, the system usually exhibits multiple-peak output power characteristics, but single-peak is also possible under special PS conditions. In fact it is shown that the partial shading condition (PSC is the necessary but not sufficient condition for multiple-peak. Based on circuit analysis, this paper shows that the number of peak points can be determined by short-circuit currents and maximum-power point currents of all the arrays in series. Then the principle is established based on which the number of the peak points is to be determined. Furthermore, based on the dynamic characteristic of solar array, this paper establishes the rule for determination of the relative position of the global maximum power point (GMPP. In order to track the GMPP within an appropriate period, a reliable technique and the corresponding computer algorithm are developed for GMPP tracking (GMPPT control. It exploits a definable nonlinear relation has been found between variable environmental parameters and the output current of solar arrays at every maximum power point, obtained based on the dynamic performance corresponding to PSC. Finally, the proposed method is validated with MATLAB®/Simulink® simulations and actual experiments. It is shown that the GMPPT of a PV generation system is indeed realized efficiently in a realistic environment with partial shading conditions.

  16. The potential of fission nuclear power in resolving global climate change under the constraints of nuclear fuel resources and once-through fuel cycles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knapp, Vladimir; Pevec, Dubravko; Matijevic, Mario

    2010-01-01

    Nuclear fission is receiving new attention as a developed source of carbon-free energy. A much larger number of nuclear reactors would be needed for a major impact on carbon emission. The crucial question is whether it can be done without increasing the risk of nuclear proliferation. Specifically, can a larger nuclear share in world energy production, well above the present 6%, be achieved in the next few decades without adding the proliferation-sensitive technologies of reprocessing spent fuel and recycling plutonium to the problems of the unavoidable use of enrichment technology? The answer depends on the available uranium resources. We first looked for the maximum possible nuclear build-up in the 2025-2065 period under the constraints of the estimated uranium resources and the use of once-through nuclear fuel technology. Our results show that nuclear energy without reprocessing could reduce carbon emission by 39.6% of the total reduction needed to bring the WEO 2009 Reference Scenario prediction of total GHG emissions in 2065 to the level of the WEO 450 Scenario limiting global temperature increase to 2 deg. C. The less demanding strategy of the nuclear replacement of all non-CCS coal power plants retiring during the 2025-2065 period would reduce emission by 26.1%.

  17. Global Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindberg Christensen, Lars; Russo, P.

    2009-05-01

    IYA2009 is a global collaboration between almost 140 nations and more than 50 international organisations sharing the same vision. Besides the common brand, mission, vision and goals, IAU established eleven cornerstones programmes to support the different IYA2009 stakeholder to organize events, activities under a common umbrella. These are global activities centred on specific themes and are aligned with IYA2009's main goals. Whether it is the support and promotion of women in astronomy, the preservation of dark-sky sites around the world or educating and explaining the workings of the Universe to millions, the eleven Cornerstones are key elements in the success of IYA2009. However, the process of implementing global projects across cultural boundaries is challenging and needs central coordination to preserve the pre-established goals. During this talk we will examine the ups and downs of coordinating such a project and present an overview of the principal achievements for the Cornerstones so far.

  18. New Zealand's Fourth National Communication under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Including the Report on the Global Climate Observing System and the Report on Demonstrable Progress under the Kyoto Protocol

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-03-01

    The New Zealand Government is committed to playing its part in the global response to climate change. This Fourth National Communication provides a snapshot of New Zealand's progress with implementing the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This document covers the period from the submission of the Third National Communication in January 2002 through to the end of December 2005. This document also contains New Zealand's Report on the Global Climate Observing System and the Report on Demonstrable Progress under the Kyoto Protocol. New Zealand's response to climate change has evolved substantially since the Third National Communication was submitted. On 19 December 2002, New Zealand became the 101st nation to ratify the Kyoto Protocol. In 2002, the New Zealand Parliament passed the Climate Change Response Act. This Act established a New Zealand climate change registry and corresponding institutional arrangements in accordance with Kyoto Protocol requirements. Other achievements are detailed throughout this Fourth National Communication. When the Government introduced its climate change policy package in 2002, it anticipated there would be three reviews of the package not later than 2005, 2007 and 2010. The reviews would be necessary to monitor progress with emissions reductions, assess the effectiveness of policies, and confirm that New Zealand was positioned to meet its commitments. The first of these reviews was commissioned by the Government in mid-2005 and completed by November 2005. The review concluded that some elements of the Government's 2002 climate change policy package should be modified to better position New Zealand to respond to the longer-term challenges of climate change. A key outcome of the policy review was the announcement by the newly elected Government in December 2005 that the previously announced carbon tax would not proceed. In addition, a suite of future work programmes would be required to inform Government

  19. Support for children identified with acute flaccid paralysis under the global polio eradication programme in Uttar Pradesh, India: a qualitative study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yotsu Rie R

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Cases of polio in India declined after the implementation of the polio eradication programme especially in these recent years. The programme includes surveillance of acute flaccid paralysis (AFP to detect and diagnose cases of polio at early stage. Under this surveillance, over 40,000 cases of AFP are reported annually since 2007 regardless of the number of actual polio cases. Yet, not much is known about these children. We conducted a qualitative research to explore care and support for children with AFP after their diagnosis. Methods The research was conducted in a district of western Uttar Pradesh classified as high-risk area for polio. In-depth interviews with parents of children with polio (17, with non-polio AFP (9, healthcare providers (40, and key informants from community including international and government officers, religious leaders, community leaders, journalists, and academics (21 were performed. Results Minimal medicine and attention were provided at government hospitals. Therefore, most parents preferred private-practice doctors for their children with AFP. Many were visited at homes to have stool samples collected by authorities. Some were visited repetitively following the sample collection, but had difficulty in understanding the reasons for these visits that pertained no treatment. Financial burden was a common concern among all families. Many parents expressed resentment for their children's disease, notably have been affected despite receiving multiple doses of polio vaccine. Both parents and healthcare providers lacked information and knowledge, furthermore poverty minimised the access to available healthcare services. Medicines, education, and transportation means were identified as foremost needs for children with AFP and residual paralysis. Conclusions Despite the high number of children diagnosed with AFP as part of the global polio eradication programme, we found they were not provided with

  20. Global warming potential of material fractions occurring in source-separated organic household waste treated by anaerobic digestion or incineration under different framework conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Naroznova, Irina; Møller, Jacob; Scheutz, Charlotte

    2016-01-01

    This study compared the environmental profiles of anaerobic digestion (AD) and incineration, in relation to global warming potential (GWP), for treating individual material fractions that may occur in source-separated organic household waste (SSOHW). Different framework conditions representative...

  1. Big moving day for biodiversity? A macroecological assessment of the scope for assisted colonization as a conservation strategy under global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Svenning, Jens-Christian; Floejgaard, Camilla; Morueta-Holme, Naia; Lenoir, Jonathan; Normand, Signe; Skov, Flemming

    2009-01-01

    Future climate change constitutes a major threat to Earth's biodiversity. If anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated, 21st century climate change is likely to exceed the natural adaptive capacity of many natural ecosystems and a large proportion of species may risk extinction. A recurrent finding is that the degree of negative impact depends strongly on the dispersal potential of the species. However, there is a growing realization that many, if not most species would be unlikely to disperse as fast and far as required. As a consequence, it has been proposed that species at risk should be actively translocated into unoccupied, but environmentally suitable areas that are likely to stay suitable over the next 100 or more years (assisted colonization or assisted migration). This solution is controversial, though, reflecting negative experiences with introduced exotics and probably also the traditional emphasis in conservation management on preserving a certain local, often historical situation with a static species composition, and a tendency among ecologists to think of biological communities as generally saturated with species. Using the European flora as a case study, we here estimate the main environmental controls of plant species richness, assess how the maximum observed species richness depends on these environmental controls, and based here on estimate how many species could at least be added to an area before further species additions would perhaps inevitably lead to corresponding losses locally. Our results suggest that there is substantial room for additional plant species across most areas of Europe, indicating that there is considerable scope for implementing assisted colonization as a proactive conservation strategy under global warming without necessarily implicating negative effects on the native flora in the areas targeted for establishment of translocated populations. Notably, our results suggest that 50% of the cells in Northern

  2. Big moving day for biodiversity? A macroecological assessment of the scope for assisted colonization as a conservation strategy under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Svenning, Jens-Christian; Fløjgaard, Camilla; Morueta-Holme, Naia; Lenoir, Jonathan; Normand, Signe; Skov, Flemming

    2009-11-01

    Future climate change constitutes a major threat to Earth's biodiversity. If anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated, 21st century climate change is likely to exceed the natural adaptive capacity of many natural ecosystems and a large proportion of species may risk extinction. A recurrent finding is that the degree of negative impact depends strongly on the dispersal potential of the species. However, there is a growing realization that many, if not most species would be unlikely to disperse as fast and far as required. As a consequence, it has been proposed that species at risk should be actively translocated into unoccupied, but environmentally suitable areas that are likely to stay suitable over the next 100 or more years (assisted colonization or assisted migration). This solution is controversial, though, reflecting negative experiences with introduced exotics and probably also the traditional emphasis in conservation management on preserving a certain local, often historical situation with a static species composition, and a tendency among ecologists to think of biological communities as generally saturated with species. Using the European flora as a case study, we here estimate the main environmental controls of plant species richness, assess how the maximum observed species richness depends on these environmental controls, and based here on estimate how many species could at least be added to an area before further species additions would perhaps inevitably lead to corresponding losses locally. Our results suggest that there is substantial room for additional plant species across most areas of Europe, indicating that there is considerable scope for implementing assisted colonization as a proactive conservation strategy under global warming without necessarily implicating negative effects on the native flora in the areas targeted for establishment of translocated populations. Notably, our results suggest that 50% of the cells in Northern

  3. Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Haidong; Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu; Abate, Kalkidan Hassen; Abbafati, Cristiana; Abbas, Kaja M; Abd-Allah, Foad; Abera, Semaw Ferede; Abraha, Haftom Niguse; Abu-Raddad, Laith J; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen ME; Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi; Adedoyin, Rufus Adesoji; Adetifa, Ifedayo Morayo O; Adetokunboh, Olatunji; Afshin, Ashkan

    2017-01-01

    Background: \\ud \\ud Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality betwee...

  4. Projection of U.S. forest sector carbon sequestration under U.S. and global timber market and wood energy consumption scenarios, 2010-2060

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prakash Nepal; Peter J. Ince; Kenneth E. Skog; Sun J. Chang

    2012-01-01

    This study provides a modeling framework to examine change over time in U.S. forest sector carbon inventory (in U.S. timberland tree biomass and harvested wood products) for alternative projections of U.S. and global timber markets, including wood energy consumption, based on established IPCC/RPA scenarios. Results indicated that the U.S. forest sector’s projected...

  5. Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. F. Wehner

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC invited the scientific community to explore the impacts of a world in which anthropogenic global warming is stabilized at only 1.5 °C above preindustrial average temperatures. We present a projection of future tropical cyclone statistics for both 1.5 and 2.0 °C stabilized warming scenarios with direct numerical simulation using a high-resolution global climate model. As in similar projections at higher warming levels, we find that even at these low warming levels the most intense tropical cyclones become more frequent and more intense, while simultaneously the frequency of weaker tropical storms is decreased. We also conclude that in the 1.5 °C stabilization, the effect of aerosol forcing changes complicates the interpretation of greenhouse gas forcing changes.

  6. Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wehner, Michael F.; Reed, Kevin A.; Loring, Burlen; Stone, Dáithí; Krishnan, Harinarayan

    2018-02-01

    The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the scientific community to explore the impacts of a world in which anthropogenic global warming is stabilized at only 1.5 °C above preindustrial average temperatures. We present a projection of future tropical cyclone statistics for both 1.5 and 2.0 °C stabilized warming scenarios with direct numerical simulation using a high-resolution global climate model. As in similar projections at higher warming levels, we find that even at these low warming levels the most intense tropical cyclones become more frequent and more intense, while simultaneously the frequency of weaker tropical storms is decreased. We also conclude that in the 1.5 °C stabilization, the effect of aerosol forcing changes complicates the interpretation of greenhouse gas forcing changes.

  7. Trends, causes, and risk factors of mortality among children under 5 in Ethiopia, 1990-2013 : findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Deribew, Amare; Tessema, Gizachew Assefa; Deribe, Kebede; Melaku, Yohannes Adama; Lakew, Yihunie; Amare, Azmeraw T.; Abera, Semaw F.; Mohammed, Mesoud; Hiruye, Abiy; Teklay, Efrem; Misganaw, Awoke; Kassebaum, Nicholas

    2016-01-01

    Background: Ethiopia has made remarkable progress in reducing child mortality over the last two decades. However, the under-5 mortality rate in Ethiopia is still higher than the under-5 mortality rates of several low-and middle-income countries (LMIC). On the other hand, the patterns and causes of

  8. Global, regional, national, and selected subnational levels of stillbirths, neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality, 1980-2015 : A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wang, Haidong; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A.; Coates, Matthew M.; Coggeshall, Megan; Dandona, Lalit; Diallo, Khassoum; Franca, Elisabeth Barboza; Fraser, Maya; Fullman, Nancy; Gething, Peter W.; Hay, Simon I.; Kinfu, Yohannes; Kita, Maaya; Kulikoff, Xie Rachel; Larson, Heidi J.; Liang, Juan; Liang, Xiaofeng; Lim, Stephen S.; Lind, Margaret; Lopez, Alan D.; Lozano, Rafael; Mensah, George A.; Mikesell, Joseph B.; Mokdad, Ali H.; Mooney, Meghan D.; Naghavi, Mohsen; Nguyen, Grant; Rakovac, Ivo; Salomon, Joshua A.; Silpakit, Naris; Sligar, Amber; Sorensen, Reed J. D.; Vos, Theo; Zhu, Jun; Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu; Abate, Kalkidan Hassen; Abbas, Kaja M.; Abd-Allah, Foad; Abdulle, Abdishakur M.; Abera, Semaw Ferede; Aboyans, Victor; Abraham, Biju; Abubakar, Ibrahim; Abu-Raddad, Laith J.; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M. E.; Abyu, Gebre Yitayih; Achoki, Tom; Adebiyi, Akindele Olupelumi; Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi; Adelekan, Ademola Lukman; Adou, Arsene Kouablan; Agarwal, Arnav; Ajala, Oluremi N.; Akinyemiju, Tomi F.; Akseer, Nadia; Alam, Khurshid; Alam, Noore K. M.; Alasfoor, Deena; Aldridge, Robert William; Alegretti, Miguel Angel; Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw; Ali, Raghib; Alkerwi, Ala'a; Alla, Francois; Al-Raddadi, Rajaa; Alsharif, Ubai; Altirkawi, Khalid A.; Martin, Elena Alvarez; Alvis-Guzman, Nelson; Amare, Azmeraw T.; Amberbir, Alemayehu; Amegah, Adeladza Kofi; Ameh, Emmanuel A.; Ammar, Walid; Amrock, Stephen Marc; Andersen, Hjalte H.; Anderson, Gregory M.; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T.; Arlov, Johan; Artaman, Al; Asayesh, Hamid; Asghar, Rana Jawad; Assadi, Reza; Atique, Suleman; Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel G. Arthur; Awasthi, Ashish; Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina Ayala; Bacha, Umar; Badawi, Alaa; Balakrishnan, Kalpana; Banerjee, Amitava; Banigbe, Bolanle F.; Barac, Aleksandra; Barber, Ryan M.; Barker-Collo, Suzanne L.; Barnighausen, Till; Barrero, Lope H.; Bayou, Tigist Assefa; Bayou, Yibeltal Tebekaw; Bazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad; Beardsley, Justin; Bedi, Neeraj; Bekele, Tolesa; Bell, Michelle L.; Bello, Aminu K.; Bennett, Derrick A.; Bensenor, Isabela M.; Berhane, Adugnaw; Bernabe, Eduardo; Betsu, Balem Demtsu; Beyene, Addisu Shunu; Bhatt, Samir; Biadgilign, Sibhatu; Bikbov, Boris; Birlik, Sait Mentes; Bisanzio, Donal; Bjertness, Espen; Blore, Jed D.; Bourne, Rupert R. A.; Brainin, Michael; Brazinova, Alexandra; Breitborde, Nicholas J. K.; Brown, Alexandria; Colin Buckle, Geoff Rey; Burch, Michael; Butt, Zahid A.; Ricardo Campos-Nonato, Ismael; Cesar Campuzano, Julio; Cardenas, Rosario; Carpenter, David O.; Jesus Carrero, Juan; Carter, Austin; Casey, Daniel C.; Castaneda-Orjuela, Carlos A.; Rivas, Jacqueline Castillo; Castro, Ruben Estanislao; Catala-Lopez, Ferran; Cercy, Kelly; Chang, Hsing-Yi; Chang, Jung-Chen; Chibueze, Chioma Ezinne; Chisumpa, Vesper Hichilombwe; Choi, Jee-Young Jasmine; Chowdhury, Rajiv; Christopher, Devasahayam Jesudas; Ciobanu, Liliana G.; Colquhoun, Samantha M.; Cooper, Cyrus; Cornaby, Leslie; Damtew, Solomon Abrha; Danawi, Hadi; Dandona, Rakhi; das Neves, Jose; Davis, Adrian C.; de Jager, Pieter; De Leo, Diego; Degenhardt, Louisa; Deribe, Kebede; Deribew, Amare; Jarlais, Don C. Des; deVeber, Gabrielle A.; Dharmaratne, Samath D.; Dhillon, Preet K.; Ding, Eric L.; Doshi, Pratik Pinal; Doyle, Kerrie E.; Duan, Leilei; Dubey, Manisha; Ebrahimi, Hedyeh; Ellingsen, Christian Lycke; Elyazar, Iqbal; Endries, Aman Yesuf; Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich; Eshrati, Babak; Esteghamati, Alireza; Faraon, Emerito Jose Aquino; Farid, Talha A.; Farinha, Carla Sofia e Sa; Faro, Andre; Farvid, Maryam S.; Farzadfar, Farshad; Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad; Fernandes, Joao C.; Fischer, Florian; Fitchett, Joseph R. A.; Foigt, Nataliya; Franklin, Richard C.; Friedman, Joseph; Furst, Thomas; Gambashidze, Ketevan; Gamkrelidze, Amiran; Ganguly, Parthasarathi; Gebre, Teshome; Gebrehiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde; Gebremedhin, Amanuel Tesfay; Gebru, Alemseged Aregay; Geleijnse, Johanna M.; Gessner, Bradford D.; Ginawi, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed; Giref, Ababi Zergaw; Gishu, Melkamu Dedefo; Gomez-Dantes, Hector; Gona, Philimon; Goodridge, Amador; Gopalani, Sameer Vali; Goto, Atsushi; Gouda, Hebe N.; Gugnani, Harish Chander; Guo, Yuming; Gupta, Rahul; Gupta, Rajeev; Gupta, Vipin; Gyawali, Bishal; Haagsma, Juanita A.; Hafezi-Nejad, Nima; Haile, Demewoz; Hailu, Alemayehu Desalegne; Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa; Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi; Hamidi, Samer; Hancock, Jamie; Handal, Alexis J.; Hankey, Graeme J.; Harb, Hilda L.; Harikrishnan, Sivadasanpillai; Harun, Kimani M.; Havmoeller, Rasmus; Hay, Roderick J.; Heredia-Pi, Ileana Beatriz; Hoek, Hans W.; Horino, Masako; Horita, Nobuyuki; Hosgood, H. Dean; Hotez, Peter J.; Hoy, Damian G.; Hsairi, Mohamed; Hu, Guoqing; Huang, Cheng; Huang, John J.; Huang, Hsiang; Huiart, Laetitia; Huynh, Chantal; Iburg, Kim Moesgaard; Idrisov, Bulat T.; Innos, Kaire; Jacobsen, Kathryn H.; Jahanmehr, Nader; Javanbakht, Mehdi; Jayatilleke, Achala Upendra; Jee, Sun Ha; Jeemon, Panniyammakal; Jha, Vivekanand; Jiang, Guohong; Jiang, Ying; Jibat, Tariku; Jin, Ye; Jonas, Jost B.; Kabir, Zubair; Kalkonde, Yogeshwar; Kamal, Ritul; Kan, Haidong; Kang, Gagandeep; Karch, Andre; Karema, Corine Kakizi; Kasaeian, Amir; Kaul, Anil; Kawakami, Norito; Kayibanda, Jeanne Francoise; Kazanjan, Konstantin; Keiyoro, Peter Njenga; Kemp, Andrew Haddon; Kengne, Andre Pascal; Keren, Andre; Kereselidze, Maia; Kesavachandran, Chandrasekharan Nair; Khader, Yousef Saleh; Khalil, Ibrahim A.; Khan, Abdur Rahman; Khan, Ejaz Ahmad; Khang, Young-Ho; Khonelidze, Irma; Khubchandani, Jagdish; Kim, Cho-il; Kim, Daniel; Kim, Yun Jin; Kissoon, Niranjan; Kivipelto, Miia; Knibbs, Luke D.; Kokubo, Yoshihiro; Kosen, Soewarta; Koul, Parvaiz A.; Koyanagi, Ai; Defo, Barthelemy Kuate; Bicer, Burcu Kucuk; Kudom, Andreas A.; Kumar, G. Anil; Kutz, Michael J.; Kyu, Hmwe H.; Lal, Dharmesh Kumar; Lalloo, Ratilal; Lam, Hilton; Lam, Jennifer O.; Lansingh, Van C.; Larsson, Anders; Leigh, James; Leung, Ricky; Li, Yichong; Li, Yongmei; Lindsay, M. Patrice; Liu, Patrick Y.; Liu, Shiwei; Lloyd, Belinda K.; Lo, Warren D.; Logroscino, Giancarlo; Low, Nicola; Lunevicius, Raimundas; Lyons, Ronan A.; Ma, Stefan; Abd El Razek, Hassan Magdy; Abd El Razek, Mohammed Magdy; Mahdavi, Mahdi; Majdan, Marek; Majeed, Azeem; Malekzadeh, Reza; Mapoma, Chabila C.; Marcenes, Wagner; Martinez-Raga, Jose; Marzan, Melvin Barrientos; Masiye, Felix; McGrath, John J.; Meaney, Peter A.; Mehari, Alem; Mehndiratta, Man Mohan; Mekonnen, Alemayehu B.; Melaku, Yohannes Adama; Memiah, Peter; Memish, Ziad A.; Mendoza, Walter; Meretoja, Atte; Meretoja, Tuomo J.; Mhimbira, Francis Apolinary; Miller, Ted R.; Mills, Edward J.; Mirarefin, Mojde; Misganaw, Awoke; Mock, Charles N.; Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin; Mohammadi, Alireza; Mohammed, Shafi U.; Monasta, Lorenzo; Hernandez, Julio Cesar Montanez; Montico, Marcella; Moore, Ami R.; Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar; Morawska, Lidia; Mori, Rintaro; Mueller, Ulrich O.; Murphy, Georgina A. V.; Murthy, Srinivas; Nachega, Jean B.; Naheed, Aliya; Naidoo, Kovin S.; Naldi, Luigi; Nand, Devina; Nangia, Vinay; Neupane, Subas; Newton, Charles R.; Newton, John N.; Ng, Marie; Ngalesoni, Frida Namnyak; Nguhiu, Peter; Quyen Le Nguyen, [Unknown; Nisar, Muhammad Imran; Pete, Patrick Martial Nkamedjie; Norheim, Ole F.; Norman, Rosana E.; Ogbo, Felix Akpojene; Oh, In-Hwan; Ojelabi, Foluke Adetola; Olivares, Pedro R.; Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola; Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun; Oren, Eyal; Ota, Erika; Mahesh, P. A.; Park, Eun-Kee; Park, Hye-Youn; Parsaeian, Mahboubeh; Caicedo, Angel J. Paternina; Patten, Scott B.; Pedro, Joao Mario; Pereira, David M.; Perico, Norberto; Pesudovs, Konrad; Petzold, Max; Phillips, Michael Robert; Pillay, Julian David; Pishgar, Farhad; Polinder, Suzanne; Pope, Daniel; Popova, Svetlana; Pourmalek, Farshad; Qorbani, Mostafa; Rabiee, Rynaz H. S.; Rafay, Anwar; Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa; Rahman, Mahfuzar; Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur; Rahman, Sajjad Ur; Rai, Rajesh Kumar; Raju, Murugesan; Ram, Usha; Rana, Saleem M.; Ranabhat, Chhabi Lal; Rao, Puja; Refaat, Amany H.; Remuzzi, Giuseppe; Resnikoff, Serge; Reynolds, Alex; Rojas-Rueda, David; Ronfani, Luca; Roshandel, Gholamreza; Roth, Gregory A.; Roy, Ambuj; Ruhago, George Mugambage; Sagar, Rajesh; Saleh, Muhammad Muhammad; Sanabria, Juan R.; Sanchez-Nino, Maria Dolores; Santos, Itamar S.; Santos, Joao Vasco; Sarmiento-Suarez, Rodrigo; Sartorius, Benn; Satpathy, Maheswar; Savic, Miloje; Sawhney, Monika; Schneider, Ione J. C.; Schottker, Ben; Schwebel, David C.; Seedat, Soraya; Sepanlou, Sadaf G.; Servan-Mori, Edson E.; Setegn, Tesfaye; Shahraz, Saeid; Shaikh, Masood Ali; Shakh-Nazarova, Marina; Sharma, Rajesh; She, Jun; Sheikhbahaei, Sara; Shen, Jiabin; Sheth, Kevin N.; Shibuya, Kenji; Shin, Hwashin Hyun; Shin, Min-Jeong; Shiri, Rahman; Shuie, Ivy; Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora; Silva, Diego Augusto Santos; Silverberg, Jonathan; Simard, Edgar P.; Sindi, Shireen; Singh, Abhishek; Singh, Jasvinder A.; Singh, Om Prakash; Singh, Prashant Kumar; Singh, Virendra; Soriano, Joan B.; Soshnikov, Sergey; Sposato, Luciano A.; Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T.; Stathopoulou, Vasiliki; Steel, Nicholas; Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos; Sturua, Lela; Sunguya, Bruno F.; Swaminathan, Soumya; Sykes, Bryan L.; Szoeke, Cassandra E. I.; Tabares-Seisdedos, Rafael; Tavakkoli, Mohammad; Taye, Bineyam; Tedla, Bemnet Amare; Tefera, Worku Mekonnen; Tekle, Tesfaye; Shifa, Girma Temam; Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman; Tesfay, Fisaha Haile; Tessema, Gizachew Assefa; Thapa, Kiran; Thomson, Alan J.; Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L.; Tobe-Gai, Ruoyan; Tonelli, Marcello; Topor-Madry, Roman; Topouzis, Fotis; Tran, Bach Xuan; Troeger, Christopher; Truelsen, Thomas; Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala; Tura, Abera Kenay; Tyrovolas, Stefanos; Ukwaja, Kingsley N.; Uneke, Chigozie Jesse; Uthman, Olalekan A.; Vaezghasemi, Masoud; Vasankari, Tommi; Vasconcelos, Ana Maria Nogales; Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy; Verma, Raj Kumar; Violante, Francesco S.; Vladimirov, Sergey K.; Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich; Vollset, Stein Emil; Wang, Linhong; Wang, Yanping; Weichenthal, Scott; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Weintraub, Robert G.; Weiss, Daniel J.; Werdecker, Andrea; Westerman, Ronny; Widdowson, Marc-Alain; Wijeratne, Tissa; Williams, Thomas Neil; Wiysonge, Charles Shey; Wolfe, Charles D. A.; Wolfe, Ingrid; Won, Sungho; Wubshet, Mamo; Xiao, Qingyang; Xu, Gelin; Yadav, Ajit Kumar; Yakob, Bereket; Yano, Yuichiro; Yaseri, Mehdi; Ye, Pengpeng; Yebyo, Henock Gebremedhin; Yip, Paul; Yonemoto, Naohiro; Yoon, Seok-Jun; Younis, Mustafa Z.; Yu, Chuanhua; Zaidi, Zoubida; Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed; Zeeb, Hajo; Zhang, Hao; Zhao, Yong; Zheng, Yingfeng; Zhou, Maigeng; Zodpey, Sanjay; Murray, Christopher J. L.

    2016-01-01

    Background Established in 2000, Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG4) catalysed extraordinary political, financial, and social commitments to reduce under-5 mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. At the country level, the pace of progress in improving child survival has varied markedly,

  9. A KNOWLEDGE DISCOVERY STRATEGY FOR RELATING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FREQUENCIES OF TROPICAL STORMS AND GENERATING PREDICTIONS OF HURRICANES UNDER 21ST-CENTURY GLOBAL WARMING SCENARIOS

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — A KNOWLEDGE DISCOVERY STRATEGY FOR RELATING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FREQUENCIES OF TROPICAL STORMS AND GENERATING PREDICTIONS OF HURRICANES UNDER 21ST-CENTURY...

  10. Global, regional, and national levels and trends in under-5 mortality between 1990 and 2015, with scenario-based projections to 2030: a systematic analysis by the UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    You, Danzhen; Hug, Lucia; Ejdemyr, Simon; Idele, Priscila; Hogan, Daniel; Mathers, Colin; Gerland, Patrick; New, Jin Rou; Alkema, Leontine

    2015-12-05

    In 2000, world leaders agreed on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). MDG 4 called for a two-thirds reduction in the under-5 mortality rate between 1990 and 2015. We aimed to estimate levels and trends in under-5 mortality for 195 countries from 1990 to 2015 to assess MDG 4 achievement and then intended to project how various post-2015 targets and observed rates of change will affect the burden of under-5 deaths from 2016 to 2030. We updated the UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN IGME) database with 5700 country-year datapoints. As of July, 2015, the database contains about 17 000 country-year datapoints for mortality of children younger than 5 years for 195 countries, and includes all available nationally-representative data from vital registration systems, population censuses, household surveys, and sample registration systems. We used these data to generate estimates, with uncertainty intervals, of under-5 (age 0-4 years) mortality using a Bayesian B-spline bias-reduction model (B3 model). This model includes a data model to adjust for systematic biases associated with different types of data sources. To provide insights into the global and regional burden of under-5 deaths associated with post-2015 targets, we constructed five scenario-based projections for under-5 mortality from 2016 to 2030 and estimated national, regional, and global under-5 mortality rates up to 2030 for each scenario. The global under-5 mortality rate has fallen from 90·6 deaths per 1000 livebirths (90% uncertainty interval 89·3-92·2) in 1990 to 42·5 (40·9-45·6) in 2015. During the same period, the annual number of under-5 deaths worldwide dropped from 12·7 million (12·6 million-13·0 million) to 5·9 million (5·7 million-6·4 million). The global under-5 mortality rate reduced by 53% (50-55%) in the past 25 years and therefore missed the MDG 4 target. Based on point estimates, two regions-east Asia and the Pacific, and Latin America and the Caribbean

  11. Global warning, global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benarde, M.A.

    1992-01-01

    This book provides insights into the formidable array of issues which, in a warmer world, could impinge upon every facet of readers lives. It examines climatic change and long-term implications of global warming for the ecosystem. Topics include the ozone layer and how it works; the greenhouse effect; the dangers of imbalance and its effects on human and animal life; disruptions to the basic ecology of the planet; and the real scientific evidence for and against aberrant climatic shifts. The author also examines workable social and political programs and changes that must be instituted to avoid ecological disaster

  12. Global, regional, national, and selected subnational levels of stillbirths, neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality, 1980–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moesgaard Iburg, Kim; Gyawali, Bishal

    2016-01-01

    Summary Background Established in 2000, Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG4) catalysed extraordinary political, financial, and social commitments to reduce under-5 mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. At the country level, the pace of progress in improving child survival has varied mark...... packages to innovative financing mechanisms, is vital to charting the pathways for ultimately ending preventable child deaths by 2030. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation....

  13. Against Globalization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Philipsen, Lotte; Baggesgaard, Mads Anders

    2013-01-01

    In order to understand globalization, we need to consider what globalization is not. That is, in order to understand the mechanisms and elements that work toward globalization, we must, in a sense, read against globalization, highlighting the limitations of the concept and its inherent conflicts....... Only by employing this as a critical practice will we be analytically able to gain a dynamic understanding of the forces of globalization as they unfold today and as they have developed historically....

  14. Globalization, Globalisation

    OpenAIRE

    Wilfred J. Ethier

    2002-01-01

    This paper addresses a complex of globalization issues: the effect of globalization on the skill premium; the effect of globalization on unemployment; the relative importance of globalization and exogenous technical change; the effect of globalization on the ability of national governments to conduct independent social policies. Thinking about these topics has been dominated by a large empirical literature concluding that trade has played a relatively minor role in the rise of the skill premi...

  15. The IOD-ENSO precursory teleconnection over the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean: dynamics and long-term trends under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Dongliang; Hu, Xiaoyue; Xu, Peng; Zhao, Xia; Masumoto, Yukio; Han, Weiqing

    2018-01-01

    The dynamics of the teleconnection between the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in the tropical Indian Ocean and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean at the time lag of one year are investigated using lag correlations between the oceanic anomalies in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean in fall and those in the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean in the following winter-fall seasons in the observations and in high-resolution global ocean model simulations. The lag correlations suggest that the IOD-forced interannual transport anomalies of the Indonesian Throughflow generate thermocline anomalies in the western equatorial Pacific Ocean, which propagate to the east to induce ocean-atmosphere coupled evolution leading to ENSO. In comparison, lag correlations between the surface zonal wind anomalies over the western equatorial Pacific in fall and the Indo-Pacific oceanic anomalies at time lags longer than a season are all insignificant, suggesting the short memory of the atmospheric bridge. A linear continuously stratified model is used to investigate the dynamics of the oceanic connection between the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans. The experiments suggest that interannual equatorial Kelvin waves from the Indian Ocean propagate into the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the Makassar Strait and the eastern Indonesian seas with a penetration rate of about 10%-15% depending on the baroclinic modes. The IOD-ENSO teleconnection is found to get stronger in the past century or so. Diagnoses of the CMIP5 model simulations suggest that the increased teleconnection is associated with decreased Indonesian Throughflow transports in the recent century, which is found sensitive to the global warming forcing.

  16. Projection of actual evapotranspiration using the COSMO-CLM regional climate model under global warming scenarios of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C in the Tarim River basin, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Buda; Jian, Dongnan; Li, Xiucang; Wang, Yanjun; Wang, Anqian; Wen, Shanshan; Tao, Hui; Hartmann, Heike

    2017-11-01

    Actual evapotranspiration (ETa) is an important component of the water cycle. The goals for limiting global warming to below 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels and aspiring to 1.5 °C were negotiated in the Paris Agreement in 2015. In this study, outputs from the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM) for the Tarim River basin (TRB) were used to calculate ETa with an advection-aridity model, and changes in ETa under global warming scenarios of 1.5 °C (2020 to 2039) and 2.0 °C (2040 to 2059) were analyzed. Comparison of warming at the global and regional scale showed that regional 1.5 °C warming would occur later than the global average, while regional 2.0 °C warming would occur earlier than the global average. For global warming of 1.5 °C, the average ETa in the TRB is about 222.7 mm annually, which represents an increase of 6.9 mm relative to the reference period (1986-2005), with obvious increases projected for spring and summer. The greatest increases in ETa were projected for the northeast and southwest. The increment in the annual ETa across the TRB considering a warming of 1.5 °C was 4.3 mm less than that for a warming of 2.0 °C, and the reduction between the two levels of warming was most pronounced in the summer, when ETa was 3.4 mm smaller. The reduction in the increment of annual ETa for warming of 1.5 °C relative to warming of 2.0 °C was most pronounced in the southwest and northeast, where it was projected to be 8.2 mm and 9.3 mm smaller, respectively. It is suggested that the higher ETa under a warming of 2.0 °C mainly results from an increase in the sunshine duration (net radiation) in the southwestern basin and an increase in precipitation in the northeastern basin. Vapor is removed from the limited surface water supplies by ETa. The results of this study are therefore particularly relevant for water resource planning in the TRB.

  17. Cross-scale interactions affect tree growth and intrinsic water use efficiency and highlight the importance of spatial context in managing forests under global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenneth J. Ruzicka; Klaus J. Puettmann; J. Renée Brooks

    2017-01-01

    Summary1. We investigated the potential of cross-scale interactions to affect the outcome of density reduction in a large-scale silvicultural experiment to better understand options for managing forests under climate change. 2. We measured tree growth and intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE) based on stable carbon isotopes (δ...

  18. Climate Change Hysteria and the Supreme Court: The Economic Impact of Global Warming on the U.S. and the Misguided Regulation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions under the Clean Air Act

    OpenAIRE

    Johnston, Jason Scott

    2008-01-01

    In the spring of 2007, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in Massachusetts v. EPA that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) must promulgate automobile tailpipe C02 emission standards under Section 202 of the Clean Air Act (CAA). American environmentalists hailed the Supreme Court's decision as an important victory in the battle to curb global warming. This article argues to the contrary that: 1) a large body of economic work demonstrates that the likely pattern of costs and benefits from ...

  19. Cross-species comparison of biological themes and underlying genes on a global gene expression scale in a mouse model of colorectal liver metastasis and in clinical specimens

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schirmacher Peter

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Invasion-related genes over-expressed by tumor cells as well as by reacting host cells represent promising drug targets for anti-cancer therapy. Such candidate genes need to be validated in appropriate animal models. Results This study examined the suitability of a murine model (CT26/Balb/C of colorectal liver metastasis to represent clinical liver metastasis specimens using a global gene expression approach. Cross-species similarity was examined between pure liver, liver invasion, tumor invasion and pure tumor compartments through overlap of up-regulated genes and gene ontology (GO-based biological themes on the level of single GO-terms and of condensed GO-term families. Three out of four GO-term families were conserved in a compartment-specific way between the species: secondary metabolism (liver, invasion (invasion front, and immune response (invasion front and liver. Among the individual GO-terms over-represented in the invasion compartments in both species were "extracellular matrix", "cell motility", "cell adhesion" and "antigen presentation" indicating that typical invasion related processes are operating in both species. This was reflected on the single gene level as well, as cross-species overlap of potential target genes over-expressed in the combined invasion front compartments reached up to 36.5%. Generally, histopathology and gene expression correlated well as the highest single gene overlap was found to be 44% in syn-compartmental comparisons (liver versus liver whereas cross-compartmental overlaps were much lower (e.g. liver versus tumor: 9.7%. However, single gene overlap was surprisingly high in some cross-compartmental comparisons (e.g. human liver invasion compartment and murine tumor invasion compartment: 9.0% despite little histolopathologic similarity indicating that invasion relevant genes are not necessarily confined to histologically defined compartments. Conclusion In summary, cross

  20. Exploring the Physical Causes for Inter-Model Differences in predictions of future THC-related climate change under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tailleux, R.; Gregory, J.

    2005-12-01

    Most current coupled ocean/atmosphere climate models simulate a decrease in the oceanic thermohaline circulation in response to anthropogenic global warming. As a result, the models usually simulate a reduction in the northward meridional heat transport in the Atlantic ocean, somewhat mitigating the effects of global warming in the northern hemisphere, while exacerbating them in the southern hemisphere. Large uncertainties remain, however, because the predicted changes can vary greatly from one model to the other, with the possible responses ranging from near stability to an almost complete shutdown of the thermohaline circulation. To understand the physical causes for these inter-model differences, an intercomparison of a coordinated sets of experiments has been undertaken both as an international experiment supplementing the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project and by the UK RAPID programme. In total, about 20 coupled models, comprising both full AOGCMs and EMICs (Earth Model of Intermediate Complexity), are intercompared. The experiments are a CO2 increase experiment and a water-hosing experiment in which freshwater is released at high-latitudes. The first experiment is intended to explore future THC-related climate change with an idealised scenario of increasing anthropogenic GHG emissions, whereas the second one focuses on the effect of freshwater forcing in a sensitive region, and seeks to determine whether the models might possess bistable THC regimes by trying to push them accross their hypothesised stability threshold. This talk will describe the understanding achieved so far. Some of the results are the following: In both kind of experiments, no model shows a rapid, complete, or irreversible collapse. In the CO2 experiments, the models having the strongest overturning in the control climate tend to show the largest THC reductions. In all the models, the THC weakening is caused more by changes in surface heat flux than by changes in surface water flux. No

  1. National, regional, and global sex ratios of infant, child, and under-5 mortality and identification of countries with outlying ratios: a systematic assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Alkema, Leontine; Chao, Fengqing; You, Danzhen; Pedersen, Jon; Sawyer, Cheryl C

    2014-01-01

    Background: Under natural circumstances, the sex ratio of male to female mortality up to the age of 5 years is greater than one but sex discrimination can change sex ratios. The estimation of mortality by sex and identification of countries with outlying levels is challenging because of issues with data availability and quality, and because sex ratios might vary naturally based on differences in mortality levels and associated cause of death distributions. Methods: For this systematic anal...

  2. Global Strategy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Peter Ping

    2013-01-01

    Global strategy differs from domestic strategy in terms of content and process as well as context and structure. The content of global strategy can contain five key elements, while the process of global strategy can have six major stages. These are expounded below. Global strategy is influenced...... by rich and complementary local contexts with diverse resource pools and game rules at the national level to form a broad ecosystem at the global level. Further, global strategy dictates the interaction or balance between different entry strategies at the levels of internal and external networks....

  3. Patterns of coccolithophore pigment change under global acidification conditions based on in-situ observations at BATS site between July 1990-Dec 2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lv, Jianhai; Kuang, Yaoqiu; Zhao, Hui; Andersson, Andreas

    2017-06-01

    Coccolith production is an important part of the biogenic carbon cycle as the largest source of calcium carbonate on earth, accounting for about 75% of the deposition of carbon on the sea floor. Recent studies based on laboratory experiment results indicated that increasing anthropogenic CO2 in the atmosphere triggered global ocean acidification leading to a decrease of calcite or aragonite saturation and calcium carbonate, and to decreasing efficiency of carbon export/pumping to deep layers. In the present study, we analyzed about 20 years of field observations of coccolithophore pigment, dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), nutrients, and temperatures from the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS) site and satellite remote sensing to investigate the variable tendency of the coccolithophore pigment, and to evaluate the influence of ocean acidification on coccolithophore biomass. The results indicated that there was a generally increasing tendency of coccolithophore pigment, coupled with increasing bicarbonate concentrations or decreasing carbonate ion concentration. The change of coccolithophore pigment was also closely associated with pH, nutrients, mixed layer depth (MLD), and temperature. Correlation analyses between coccolithophores and abiotic parameter imply that coccoliths production or coccolithophore pigment has increased with increasing acidification in the recent 20 years.

  4. The impact of the financial crisis under the effects of increasing global economic interdependence. The case of Eastern and Central Europe Economies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bușega Ionuț

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The technological progress that arose in areas such as transportation, communication and information exchange has led to a series of consequences that forced national economies to converge into a global, market based economy. In addition to the aforementioned causes, increased liberalisation amidst financial markets has supplemented the initiation of this metamorphosis that had several benefits in terms of general commercial exchange (trade, capital flows, and investment opportunities for business organisations. Simultaneously with the financial leverage resulted from the expansion of these interconnections, a series of channels that are detrimental to the financial welfare of entities has emerged, which, in consequence elevated the vulnerability and susceptibility to external economic shocks. The major debate elicited by this trade-off mainly concerns the costs and benefits of the international liberalisation of capital flows and trade. The purpose of this article is to examine the methods through which globalisation has affected the expansion of the international financial crisis back in 2008, by identifying and assessing the subsequent transfer routes, to and from the United States, where it was initially triggered. This article also aims to evaluate the repercussions experienced by Central and Eastern Europe and how they re-established economic growth following the financial crisis.

  5. Fire management, managed relocation, and land conservation options for long-lived obligate seeding plants under global changes in climate, urbanization, and fire regime.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonebrake, Timothy C; Syphard, Alexandra D; Franklin, Janet; Anderson, Kurt E; Akçakaya, H Resit; Mizerek, Toni; Winchell, Clark; Regan, Helen M

    2014-08-01

    Most species face multiple anthropogenic disruptions. Few studies have quantified the cumulative influence of multiple threats on species of conservation concern, and far fewer have quantified the potential relative value of multiple conservation interventions in light of these threats. We linked spatial distribution and population viability models to explore conservation interventions under projected climate change, urbanization, and changes in fire regime on a long-lived obligate seeding plant species sensitive to high fire frequencies, a dominant plant functional type in many fire-prone ecosystems, including the biodiversity hotspots of Mediterranean-type ecosystems. First, we investigated the relative risk of population decline for plant populations in landscapes with and without land protection under an existing habitat conservation plan. Second, we modeled the effectiveness of relocating both seedlings and seeds from a large patch with predicted declines in habitat area to 2 unoccupied recipient patches with increasing habitat area under 2 projected climate change scenarios. Finally, we modeled 8 fire return intervals (FRIs) approximating the outcomes of different management strategies that effectively control fire frequency. Invariably, long-lived obligate seeding populations remained viable only when FRIs were maintained at or above a minimum level. Land conservation and seedling relocation efforts lessened the impact of climate change and land-use change on obligate seeding populations to differing degrees depending on the climate change scenario, but neither of these efforts was as generally effective as frequent translocation of seeds. While none of the modeled strategies fully compensated for the effects of land-use and climate change, an integrative approach managing multiple threats may diminish population declines for species in complex landscapes. Conservation plans designed to mitigate the impacts of a single threat are likely to fail if additional

  6. The Global ECT-MRI Research Collaboration (GEMRIC: Establishing a multi-site investigation of the neural mechanisms underlying response to electroconvulsive therapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leif Oltedal

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Major depression, currently the world's primary cause of disability, leads to profound personal suffering and increased risk of suicide. Unfortunately, the success of antidepressant treatment varies amongst individuals and can take weeks to months in those who respond. Electroconvulsive therapy (ECT, generally prescribed for the most severely depressed and when standard treatments fail, produces a more rapid response and remains the most effective intervention for severe depression. Exploring the neurobiological effects of ECT is thus an ideal approach to better understand the mechanisms of successful therapeutic response. Though several recent neuroimaging studies show structural and functional changes associated with ECT, not all brain changes associate with clinical outcome. Larger studies that can address individual differences in clinical and treatment parameters may better target biological factors relating to or predictive of ECT-related therapeutic response. We have thus formed the Global ECT-MRI Research Collaboration (GEMRIC that aims to combine longitudinal neuroimaging as well as clinical, behavioral and other physiological data across multiple independent sites. Here, we summarize the ECT sample characteristics from currently participating sites, and the common data-repository and standardized image analysis pipeline developed for this initiative. This includes data harmonization across sites and MRI platforms, and a method for obtaining unbiased estimates of structural change based on longitudinal measurements with serial MRI scans. The optimized analysis pipeline, together with the large and heterogeneous combined GEMRIC dataset, will provide new opportunities to elucidate the mechanisms of ECT response and the factors mediating and predictive of clinical outcomes, which may ultimately lead to more effective personalized treatment approaches.

  7. Globalization & technology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Narula, Rajneesh

    Technology and globalization are interdependent processes. Globalization has a fundamental influence on the creation and diffusion of technology, which, in turn, affects the interdependence of firms and locations. This volume examines the international aspect of this interdependence at two levels...

  8. Global gamesmanship.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacMillan, Ian C; van Putten, Alexander B; McGrath, Rita Gunther

    2003-05-01

    Competition among multinationals these days is likely to be a three-dimensional game of global chess: The moves an organization makes in one market are designed to achieve goals in another in ways that aren't immediately apparent to its rivals. The authors--all management professors-call this approach "competing under strategic interdependence," or CSI. And where this interdependence exists, the complexity of the situation can quickly overwhelm ordinary analysis. Indeed, most business strategists are terrible at anticipating the consequences of interdependent choices, and they're even worse at using interdependency to their advantage. In this article, the authors offer a process for mapping the competitive landscape and anticipating how your company's moves in one market can influence its competitive interactions in others. They outline the six types of CSI campaigns--onslaughts, contests, guerrilla campaigns, feints, gambits, and harvesting--available to any multiproduct or multimarket corporation that wants to compete skillfully. They cite real-world examples such as the U.S. pricing battle Philip Morris waged with R.J. Reynolds--not to gain market share in the domestic cigarette market but to divert R.J. Reynolds's resources and attention from the opportunities Philip Morris was pursuing in Eastern Europe. And, using data they collected from their studies of consumer-products companies Procter & Gamble and Unilever, the authors describe how to create CSI tables and bubble charts that present a graphical look at the competitive landscape and that may uncover previously hidden opportunities. The CSI mapping process isn't just for global corporations, the authors explain. Smaller organizations that compete with a portfolio of products in just one national or regional market may find it just as useful for planning their next business moves.

  9. HOW ARE PLANT SPECIES IN CENTRAL EUROPEAN BEECH (FAGUS SYLVATICA L. FORESTS AFFECTED BY TEMPERATURE CHANGES? SHIFT OF POTENTIAL SUITABLE HABITATS UNDER GLOBAL WARMING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. C. Jantsch

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available This study reveals which temperature range is favoured or avoided by 156 forest plant species and how the distribution of potential suitable habitats of species in beech forests may change in the future. We performed 140 phytosociological relevés along a temperature gradient (4.1 to 9.8 °C in Bavaria, southern Germany, on south exposed slopes. One half of the plots were located on acidic substrate, the other half on base-rich substrate. Generalized linear models (GLM were used to analyse species occurrence along the temperature gradient and to model habitats for species in beech forests under a present (1971-2000 and a future climate (2071-2100 scenario assuming a temperature increase of 1.8 °C. Herb species of beech forests are more adapted to lower temperatures and tree species more to higher temperatures. Current habitats will clearly change under increasing temperatures. We found large habitat losses for Luzula sylvatica (Huds. Gaudin, Maianthemum bifolium (L. F. W. Schmidt, Picea abies (L. H. Karst., Prenanthes purpurea L. and large habitat gains for Carpinus betulus L., Impatiens parviflora DC., Prunus avium (L. L. and Quercus petraea (Matt. Liebl. on both substrates. Forestry will be affected positively as well as negatively with a change in tree cultivation. Losses in biodiversity might be strong for mountainous forests and must also be considered in future conservation plans.

  10. PEMANASAN GLOBAL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vivi Triana

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Pemanasan global (global warming pada dasarnya merupakan fenomena peningkatan temperature global dari tahun ke tahun karena terjadinya efek rumah kaca (greenhouse effect yang disebabkan oleh meningkatnya emisi gas-gas seperti karbondioksida (CO2, metana (CH4, dinitrooksida (N2O dan CFC sehingga energy matahari terperangkap dalam atmosfer bumi. Berbagai literatur menunjukkan kenaikan temperatur global termasuk Indonesia yang terjadi pada kisaran 1,5 – 40 °C pada akhir abad 21.

  11. Global Europa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manners, Ian

    2010-01-01

    at the mythology of ‘global Europa' - the EU in the world. It concludes with a reflection on the way in which the many diverse myths of global Europa compete for daily attention, whether as lore, ideology, or pleasure. In this respect the mythology of global Europa is part of our everyday existence, part of the EU...

  12. Evaluating the connectivity of a protected areas' network under the prism of global change: the efficiency of the European Natura 2000 network for four birds of prey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazaris, Antonios D; Papanikolaou, Alexandra D; Barbet-Massin, Morgane; Kallimanis, Athanasios S; Jiguet, Frédéric; Schmeller, Dirk S; Pantis, John D

    2013-01-01

    Climate and land use changes are major threats to biodiversity. To preserve biodiversity, networks of protected areas have been established worldwide, like the Natura 2000 network across the European Union (EU). Currently, this reserve network consists of more than 26000 sites covering more than 17% of EU terrestrial territory. Its efficiency to mitigate the detrimental effects of land use and climate change remains an open research question. Here, we examined the potential current and future geographical ranges of four birds of prey under scenarios of both land use and climate changes. By using graph theory, we examined how the current Natura 2000 network will perform in regard to the conservation of these species. This approach determines the importance of a site in regard to the total network and its connectivity. We found that sites becoming unsuitable due to climate change are not a random sample of the network, but are less connected and contribute less to the overall connectivity than the average site and thus their loss does not disrupt the full network. Hence, the connectivity of the remaining network changed only slightly from present day conditions. Our findings highlight the need to establish species-specific management plans with flexible conservation strategies ensuring protection under potential future range expansions. Aquila pomarina is predicted to disappear from the southern part of its range and to become restricted to northeastern Europe. Gyps fulvus, Aquila chrysaetos, and Neophron percnopterus are predicted to locally lose some suitable sites; hence, some isolated small populations may become extinct. However, their geographical range and metapopulation structure will remain relatively unaffected throughout Europe. These species would benefit more from an improved habitat quality and management of the existing network of protected areas than from increased connectivity or assisted migration.

  13. A 10-year review of cannabis exposure in children under 3-years of age: do we need a more global approach?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Claudet, Isabelle; Le Breton, Mathilde; Bréhin, Camille; Franchitto, Nicolas

    2017-04-01

    Pediatricians working in an emergency environment are confronted with children admitted to emergency departments for intoxication on a daily basis. We carried out a retrospective cohort study of children admitted to a pediatric emergency department due to unintentional cannabis exposure over a 10-year period from 2004 to 2014. Twenty-nine children under the age of 3 were admitted with a positive cannabis urine test. Eighty-seven percent of intoxications occurred at the family home. Resin was the main form of ingested cannabis (69%). The mean age was 16.5 ± 5.2 months, and mean weight was 11.1 ± 2.1 Kg. Sixty percent of admissions occurred between 2012 and 2014. More severe presentations, based on Poisoning Severity Score, occurred over the past 2 years. Four children experienced seizures before admission. Ten children (34%) had a decreased level of consciousness (GCS cannabis consumption. This study supports the impression that accidental child poisonings with cannabis have been more serious than previously thought for 2 years. This observation may be explained by (1) the increased THC concentration in cannabis and (2) the widespread use in young adults, even after they become parents. Introducing an addiction team inside the PED could help to improve the care links with these parents. What is Known: • Cases of unintentional cannabis intoxication in children have been increasing for many years due to an increase of potency. What is New: • We highlight an increase in more severe presentations in children under the age of 3 occurring over the past 2 years, which will indicate the importance of assessing cannabis abuse in parents by a specialized addiction team.

  14. Global usability

    CERN Document Server

    Douglas, Ian

    2011-01-01

    The concept of usability has become an increasingly important consideration in the design of all kinds of technology. As more products are aimed at global markets and developed through internationally distributed teams, usability design needs to be addressed in global terms. Interest in usability as a design issue and specialist area of research and education has developed steadily in North America and Europe since the 1980's. However, it is only over the last ten years that it has emerged as a global concern. Global Usability provides an introduction to the important issues in globalizing des

  15. Gravity or turbulence? - II. Evolving column density probability distribution functions in molecular clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballesteros-Paredes, Javier; Vázquez-Semadeni, Enrique; Gazol, Adriana; Hartmann, Lee W.; Heitsch, Fabian; Colín, Pedro

    2011-09-01

    It has been recently shown that molecular clouds do not exhibit a unique shape for the column density probability distribution function (N-PDF). Instead, clouds without star formation seem to possess a lognormal distribution, while clouds with active star formation develop a power-law tail at high column densities. The lognormal behaviour of the N-PDF has been interpreted in terms of turbulent motions dominating the dynamics of the clouds, while the power-law behaviour occurs when the cloud is dominated by gravity. In the present contribution, we use thermally bi-stable numerical simulations of cloud formation and evolution to show that, indeed, these two regimes can be understood in terms of the formation and evolution of molecular clouds: a very narrow lognormal regime appears when the cloud is being assembled. However, as the global gravitational contraction occurs, the initial density fluctuations are enhanced, resulting, first, in a wider lognormal N-PDF, and later, in a power-law N-PDF. We thus suggest that the observed N-PDF of molecular clouds are a manifestation of their global gravitationally contracting state. We also show that, contrary to recent suggestions, the exact value of the power-law slope is not unique, as it depends on the projection in which the cloud is being observed.

  16. Performance of new generation TWC catalytic systems working under different conditions in order to reduce the emission of a global warming gas: N{sub 2}O

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mac-Beath, I.; Castillo, S.; Camposeco, R.; Moran-Pineda, M. [Instituto Mexicano del Petroleo, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico). Programa de Ingenieria Molecular

    2010-07-01

    In this work, three-way catalytic systems (TWC-K, TWC-M and TWC-P) were prepared and tested experimentally in order to analyze N{sub 2}O emissions. Various types and quantities of precious metals (Pt-Pd-Rh), and different mixed oxides (CexBayLazMgwO{sub 2}-Al{sub 2}O{sub 3}) to prepare the supports were used. The catalytic tests were carried out by using common exhaust gases from a gasoline engine under different oxidizing conditions. The TWC catalytic compositions were based on catalytic converters used in retrofitting programs in the Metropolitan Area in Mexico City. Fresh and aged TWC catalytic samples were tested; in both conditions, the catalytic compositions were characterized by BET, TEM-EDS and XRD in order to analyze the efficiency of the catalytic behavior. Due to the fact that the 4{sup th} TWC generation (Pd-Only TWC) has Pd as main active metal, the tested TWC catalytic samples were synthesized by having Pd in a higher proportion with regard to Pt and Rh used as complements with some differences in support composition. (orig.)

  17. The risk level of Vietnam non-banking investment and financial services industry under financial leverage during and after the global crisis 2007-2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dinh Tran Ngoc Huy

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper estimates the impacts of external financing on market risk for the listed firms in the Viet nam non-banking financial services industry, esp. after the financial crisis 2007-2009. First, by using quantitative and analytical methods to estimate asset and equity beta of total 10 listed companies in Vietnam non-banking financial services industry with a proper traditional model, we found out that the beta values, in general, for many institutions are acceptable. Second, under 3 different scenarios of changing leverage (in 2011 financial reports, 30% up and 20% down, we recognized that the risk level, measured by equity and asset beta mean, decreases when leverage increases to 30% and vice versa. Third, by changing leverage in 3 scenarios, we recognized the dispersion of risk level increases (measured by equity beta var if the leverage decreases down to 20%. Finally, this paper provides some outcomes that could provide companies and government more evidence in establishing their policies in governance.

  18. Eye irritation potential: usefulness of the HET-CAM under the Globally Harmonized System of classification and labeling of chemicals (GHS).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheel, Julia; Kleber, Marcus; Kreutz, Jürgen; Lehringer, Elke; Mehling, Annette; Reisinger, Kerstin; Steiling, Winfried

    2011-04-01

    Extensive research has been conducted over the past decades to develop alternatives to the rabbit eye irritation test (Draize test) used in a regulatory context to assess eye irritation potentials. Although no single in vitro test has emerged as being completely acceptable for full replacement, various tests are considered to be suitable and are regularly used to assess certain aspects. Amongst these, the Hen's Egg Test Chorioallantoic Membrane (HET-CAM) has gained regulatory acceptance in various countries to classify severe eye irritants. In this retrospective study, historical eye irritation data (in vivo and in vitro) from 137 samples (approx. 75% non-irritants; 25% (severe) irritants) tested both in the HET-CAM and Draize eye test was compared with regard to the predicted eye irritation classes under the GHS and the traditional EU classification system (DSD).The overall concordance was in the range of 80-90%. A high specificity (96-98%, depending on the classification system and the chosen discrimination) but rather low sensitivity (48-65%) was observed. The study indicates that HET-CAM results are useful as part of weight-of-evidence assessments or in tiered approaches to assess eye irritation potentials rather than as stand-alone classification method. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Plantation Forestry under Global Warming: Hybrid Poplars with Improved Thermotolerance Provide New Insights on the in Vivo Function of Small Heat Shock Protein Chaperones1[C][W

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merino, Irene; Contreras, Angela; Jing, Zhong-Ping; Gallardo, Fernando; Cánovas, Francisco M.; Gómez, Luis

    2014-01-01

    Climate-driven heat stress is a key factor affecting forest plantation yields. While its effects are expected to worsen during this century, breeding more tolerant genotypes has proven elusive. We report here a substantial and durable increase in the thermotolerance of hybrid poplar (Populus tremula × Populus alba) through overexpression of a major small heat shock protein (sHSP) with convenient features. Experimental evidence was obtained linking protective effects in the transgenic events with the unique chaperone activity of sHSPs. In addition, significant positive correlations were observed between phenotype strength and heterologous sHSP accumulation. The remarkable baseline levels of transgene product (up to 1.8% of total leaf protein) have not been reported in analogous studies with herbaceous species. As judged by protein analyses, such an accumulation is not matched either by endogenous sHSPs in both heat-stressed poplar plants and field-grown adult trees. Quantitative real time-polymerase chain reaction analyses supported these observations and allowed us to identify the poplar members most responsive to heat stress. Interestingly, sHSP overaccumulation was not associated with pleiotropic effects that might decrease yields. The poplar lines developed here also outperformed controls under in vitro and ex vitro culture conditions (callus biomass, shoot production, and ex vitro survival), even in the absence of thermal stress. These results reinforce the feasibility of improving valuable genotypes for plantation forestry, a field where in vitro recalcitrance, long breeding cycles, and other practical factors constrain conventional genetic approaches. They also provide new insights into the biological functions of the least understood family of heat shock protein chaperones. PMID:24306533

  20. Plantation forestry under global warming: hybrid poplars with improved thermotolerance provide new insights on the in vivo function of small heat shock protein chaperones.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merino, Irene; Contreras, Angela; Jing, Zhong-Ping; Gallardo, Fernando; Cánovas, Francisco M; Gómez, Luis

    2014-02-01

    Climate-driven heat stress is a key factor affecting forest plantation yields. While its effects are expected to worsen during this century, breeding more tolerant genotypes has proven elusive. We report here a substantial and durable increase in the thermotolerance of hybrid poplar (Populus tremula×Populus alba) through overexpression of a major small heat shock protein (sHSP) with convenient features. Experimental evidence was obtained linking protective effects in the transgenic events with the unique chaperone activity of sHSPs. In addition, significant positive correlations were observed between phenotype strength and heterologous sHSP accumulation. The remarkable baseline levels of transgene product (up to 1.8% of total leaf protein) have not been reported in analogous studies with herbaceous species. As judged by protein analyses, such an accumulation is not matched either by endogenous sHSPs in both heat-stressed poplar plants and field-grown adult trees. Quantitative real time-polymerase chain reaction analyses supported these observations and allowed us to identify the poplar members most responsive to heat stress. Interestingly, sHSP overaccumulation was not associated with pleiotropic effects that might decrease yields. The poplar lines developed here also outperformed controls under in vitro and ex vitro culture conditions (callus biomass, shoot production, and ex vitro survival), even in the absence of thermal stress. These results reinforce the feasibility of improving valuable genotypes for plantation forestry, a field where in vitro recalcitrance, long breeding cycles, and other practical factors constrain conventional genetic approaches. They also provide new insights into the biological functions of the least understood family of heat shock protein chaperones.

  1. Tsengwen Reservoir Watershed Hydrological Flood Simulation Under Global Climate Change Using the 20 km Mesh Meteorological Research Institute Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MRI-AGCM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nobuaki Kimura

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Severe rainstorms have occurred more frequently in Taiwan over the last decade. To understand the flood characteristics of a local region under climate change, a hydrological model simulation was conducted for the Tsengwen Reservoir watershed. The model employed was the Integrated Flood Analysis System (IFAS, which has a conceptual, distributed rainfall-runoff analysis module and a GIS data-input function. The high-resolution rainfall data for flood simulation was categorized into three terms: 1979 - 2003 (Present, 2015 - 2039 (Near-future, and 2075 - 2099 (Future, provided by the Meteorological Research Institute atmospheric general circulation model (MRI-AGCM. Ten extreme rainfall (top ten events were selected for each term in descending order of total precipitation volume. Due to the small watershed area the MRI-AGCM3.2S data was downsized into higher resolution data using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. The simulated discharges revealed that most of the Near-future and Future peaks caused by extreme rainfall increased compared to the Present peak. These ratios were 0.8 - 1.6 (Near-future/Present and 0.9 - 2.2 (Future/Present, respectively. Additionally, we evaluated how these future discharges would affect the reservoir¡¦s flood control capacity, specifically the excess water volume required to be stored while maintaining dam releases up to the dam¡¦s spillway capacity or the discharge peak design for flood prevention. The results for the top ten events show that the excess water for the Future term exceeded the reservoir¡¦s flood control capacity and was approximately 79.6 - 87.5% of the total reservoir maximum capacity for the discharge peak design scenario.

  2. Under Under Under / Merit Kask

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Kask, Merit

    2006-01-01

    20. nov. esietendub Kumu auditooriumis MTÜ Ühenduse R.A.A.A.M teatriprojekt "Under" poetess Marie Underist. Lavastajad Merle Karusoo ja Raimo Pass, kunstnik Jaagup Roomet, helilooja Urmas Lattikas, peaosas Katrin Saukas

  3. Global food insecurity. treatment of major food crops with elevated carbon dioxide or ozone under large-scale fully open-air conditions suggests recent models may have overestimated future yields.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, Stephen P; Ainsworth, Elizabeth A; Leakey, Andrew D B; Morgan, Patrick B

    2005-11-29

    Predictions of yield for the globe's major grain and legume arable crops suggest that, with a moderate temperature increase, production may increase in the temperate zone, but decline in the tropics. In total, global food supply may show little change. This security comes from inclusion of the direct effect of rising carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration, [CO2], which significantly stimulates yield by decreasing photorespiration in C3 crops and transpiration in all crops. Evidence for a large response to [CO2] is largely based on studies made within chambers at small scales, which would be considered unacceptable for standard agronomic trials of new cultivars or agrochemicals. Yet, predictions of the globe's future food security are based on such inadequate information. Free-Air Concentration Enrichment (FACE) technology now allows investigation of the effects of rising [CO2] and ozone on field crops under fully open-air conditions at an agronomic scale. Experiments with rice, wheat, maize and soybean show smaller increases in yield than anticipated from studies in chambers. Experiments with increased ozone show large yield losses (20%), which are not accounted for in projections of global food security. These findings suggest that current projections of global food security are overoptimistic. The fertilization effect of CO2 is less than that used in many models, while rising ozone will cause large yield losses in the Northern Hemisphere. Unfortunately, FACE studies have been limited in geographical extent and interactive effects of CO2, ozone and temperature have yet to be studied. Without more extensive study of the effects of these changes at an agronomic scale in the open air, our ever-more sophisticated models will continue to have feet of clay.

  4. SHADOW GLOBALIZATION

    OpenAIRE

    Larissa Mihaylovna Kapitsa

    2014-01-01

    The article reviews some development trends brought about by globalization, particularly, a growing tax evasion and tax avoidance, an expansion of illicit financial flows and the proliferation of a global criminal network. The author draws attention to some new phenomena, particularly, cosmopolitanization of some parts of national elites and a deepening divide between national interests and the private interests of elites as a consequence of financial globalization. Modern mass media, both Ru...

  5. Global Mindset

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Olav Jull

    2016-01-01

    The concept of Global Mindset (GM) – the way to think about the global reality – is on the agenda of multinational companies concomitant with the increase in global complexity, uncertainty and diversity. In spite of a number of studies, the concept is still fluid and far from a managerial...... way of thinking about the global business reality. The other extreme is a GM as an organizational capability and process with a GM in a continuous state of becoming – and thus in a continuously alignment with a dynamic context. In addition, we argue for what we call “situational capabilities”, i...

  6. Long-term fire activity under the East Asian monsoon responding to spring insolation, vegetation type, global climate, and human impact inferred from charcoal records in Lake Biwa sediments in central Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inoue, Jun; Okuyama, Chikako; Takemura, Keiji

    2018-01-01

    Records of sedimentary charcoal provide fire histories for assessing the relationship between fires and climate conditions, vegetation, human impact, and other factors. We analyzed charcoal particles in sediments from Lake Biwa in central Japan, dating back to 150,000 years ago. The sediments are well dated, homogenous, and had a constant sedimentation rate, making them ideal for assessing the long-term fire history through charcoal concentration analysis. Low charcoal concentrations in the glacial periods of Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 2 and 6 indicate that few fires occurred in the periods under the cold climatic conditions. Variations in the microcharcoal concentration between 40,000 and 130,000 years ago, with a periodicity of 21,000-23,000 years, correspond to variations in the spring insolation in central Japan, vegetation type, and global climate, suggesting that the long-term fire activity in central Japan was determined mainly by spring insolation and vegetation type under the influence of global climate change. This finding suggests that insolation changes induced by precession cycles could influence a long-term phenomenon in an area as a direct local effect. Between 16,000 and 3000 years ago, sediments were characterized by an extraordinarily high concentration of large charcoal particles (>50 μm) and the predominance of elongated charcoal particles, suggesting that grassland fires (presumably anthropogenic) occurred frequently in the lakeside area. The frequent fire occurrence presumably contributed to the inflow of a large amount of organic materials, resulting in changes in the aquatic environment of Lake Biwa and/or its adjacent area.

  7. Global Uddannelse

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Niels Rosendal

    Antologien handler om "demokratiproblemer i den globale sammenhæng" (del I) og "demokratiproblemer i uddannelse og for de offentligt ansatte" (del II), bundet sammen af et mellemstykke, der rækker ud mod begge poler både det globale og det lokale ved at knytte det til forholdet mellem marked...

  8. Gendering Globalization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Siim, Birte

    2009-01-01

    The current global financial situation bluntly and brutally brings home the fact that the global and local are closely connected in times of opportunity as well as crises. The articles in this issue of Asia Insights are about ontra-action between Asia, particularly China, and the Nordic countries...

  9. Developing Globalization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Annette Skovsted

    2017-01-01

    This chapter is the first qualitative micro case study of one aspect of globalization: personal networks as a concrete outcome of development assistance spending. The empirical findings related in this paper present circumstantial evidence that Japanese foreign aid has contributed to globalization...

  10. Suscetibilidade do ambiente a ocorrências de queimadas sob condições climáticas atuais e de futuro aquecimento global Environmental susceptibility for the occurance of vegetacion burning under present day and future clobal warming conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anailton Sales Mélo

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available As queimadas, a nível global, são a segunda maior fonte de emissões de gases de efeito estufa. Um passo importante para a redução dos impactos das queimadas é por meio de investigação da suscetibilidade, que um determinado ambiente possui para a queima ou mesmo para o alastramento do fogo (risco de fogo. Diante da necessidade de se conhecer possíveis implicações das mudanças na circulação atmosférica em um futuro próximo, pretende-se neste trabalho investigar a suscetibilidade do ambiente à ocorrência de queimadas, baseado no índice de risco de queimadas, a saber: o Índice de Haines (IH. Para tanto, dados de modelagem numérica do modelo ECHAM5/MPI-OM, e dados das reanálises do NCEP são empregados para os cálculos do IH em dois períodos: atual (1980-2000 e projeções climáticas para o final do século (2080-2100. Com base nos resultados, concluiu-se que o modelo de risco de fogo reproduz bem as áreas com maior incidência de queimadas sob condições atuais, e que sob condições de aquecimento global detectou-se um aumento na área de risco em especial para a região Amazônica.Vegetation burning is the second source of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. An important step to reduce the climate impact of these emissions is to investigate the atmospheric susceptibility of a region for fire development (fire risk. This study aims to investigate the environmental susceptibility to fire development, based on the burning risk index: the Haines Index (HI. The study is carried out with data from the ECHAM5/MPI-OM climate model and the NCEP reanalysis data, to calculate the HI during two periods: present day (1980-2000 and climate projections for the end of the 21st century (2080-2100. Based upon the results, we concluded that the Haines index could reproduce properly the areas with the highest fire incidence under present conditions. Moreover, it has been found an enlargement in the fire risk area under global

  11. The impacts of U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on the carbon emission space and mitigation cost of China, EU, and Japan under the constraints of the global carbon emission space

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Han-Cheng Dai

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Based on the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE model and scenario analysis, the impacts of the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on the carbon emission space and mitigation cost in China, European Union (EU, and Japan are assessed under Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs and 2 °C scenarios due to the changed emission pathway of the U.S. The results show that, under the condition of constant global cumulative carbon emissions and a fixed burden-sharing scheme among countries, the failure of the U.S. to honor its NDC commitment to different degrees will increase the U.S. carbon emission space and decrease its mitigation cost. However, the carbon emission space of other parties, including China, EU, and Japan, will be reduced and their mitigation costs will be increased. In 2030, under the 2 °C target, the carbon price will increase by 4.4–14.6 US$ t−1 in China, by 9.7–35.4 US$ t−1 in the EU, and by 16.0–53.5 US$ t−1 in Japan. In addition, China, EU, and Japan will incur additional Gross Domestic Production (GDP loss. Under the 2 °C target, the GDP loss of China would increase by US$22.0–71.1 billion (equivalent to 16.4–53.1 US$ per capita, the EU's GDP loss would increase by US$9.4–32.1 billion (equivalent to 20.7–71.1 US$ per capita, and Japan's GDP loss will increase by US$4.1–13.5 billion (equivalent to 34.3–111.6 US$ per capita.

  12. Global Mindsets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Global Mindsets: Exploration and Perspectives seeks to tackle a topic that is relatively new in research and practice, and is considered by many to be critical for firms seeking to conduct global business. It argues that multiple mindsets exist (across and within organizations), that they operate...... in a global context, and that they are dynamic and undergo change and action. Part of the mindset(s) may depend upon place, situation and context where individuals and organizations operate. The book will examine the notion of "mindset" is situational and dynamic, especially in a global setting, why...... it is important for future scholars and managers and how it could be conceptualized. Global Mindsets: Exploration and Perspectives is split into two major sections; the first examines where the literature currently is with respect to the knowledge in the field and what conceptual frameworks guide the thinking...

  13. BUSINESS GLOBALIZATION: TRANSNATIONAL CORPORATIONS AND GLOBAL COMPETITION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DIMA Stela

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to introduce business globalization and the main globalization factors which, under the current stage, are transnational corporations. Globalization is the result of the pressure put by companies which, in turn, are under the close “magnifier” of all the involved factors (the so-called “stakeholders”. The market and the determining forces are not influenced by a political attitude nowadays marking globalization, but rather the political decisions have followed the course of economic evolutions, a trend that has always been provided by multinational corporations. In order to successfully follow up their activity, companies initiate new businesses, selling or deleting from their portfolio businesses or divisions with a decreasing tendency. Also, companies give up old rules and structures adopting new decision-making processes, control systems and mental patterns. Corporations must learn to become dynamic just like the market, if they wish to maintain, on the long run, a superior rate of income.

  14. Global Environmental Liability: Multinational Corporations under Scrutiny

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vidyaranya Chakravarthy Namballa

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to analyse the extent of international rules that apply to multinational corporations (MNCs regarding their environmentally degrading activities and quality control qua environmental impact. The first part of the article describes the ambiguous legal status of MNCs and examines the rules that international instruments and host state agreements impose on the activities of MNCs. The second part focuses on jurisdiction and choice of law issues of cross-border litigation and brings out its major shortcoming. Finally, the conclusion comments on the efficiency of international law in imposing environmental liability on MNCs.

  15. Georgian climate change under global warming conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariam Elizbarashvili

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Georgian Climate change has been considered comprehensively, taking into account World Meteorological Organization recommendations and recent observation data. On the basis of mean temperature and precipitation decadal trend geo-information maps for 1936–2012 years period, Georgian territory zoning has been carried out and for each areas climate indices main trends have been studied, that best characterize climate change - cold and hot days, tropical nights, vegetation period duration, diurnal maximum precipitation, maximum five-day total precipitation, precipitation intensity simple index, precipitation days number of at least 10 mm, 20 mm and 50 mm, rainy and rainless periods duration. Trends of temperature indices are statistically significant. On the Black Sea coastline and Colchis lowland at high confidence level cold and hot days and tropical nights number changes are statistically significant. On eastern Georgia plains at high level of statistical significance, the change of all considered temperature indices has been fixed except for the number of hot days. In mountainous areas only hot day number increasing is significant. Trends of most moisture indices are statistically insignificant. While keeping Georgian climate change current trends, precipitation amount on the Black Sea coastline and Colchis lowland, as well as in some parts of Western Caucasus to the end of the century will increase by 50% and amounts to 3000 and 6000 mm, respectively this will strengthen humidity of those areas. Besides increasing of rainy period duration may constitute the risk for flooding and high waters. On eastern Georgia plains, in particular Kvemo Kartli, annual precipitation amount will decrease by 50% or more, and will be only 150–200 mm and the precipitation daily maximum will decrease by about 20 mm and be only 10–15 mm, which of course will increase the intensity of desertification of steppe and semi-desert landscapes.

  16. Changes in Extreme Maximum Temperature Events and Population Exposure in China under Global Warming Scenarios of 1.5 and 2.0°C: Analysis Using the Regional Climate Model COSMO-CLM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhan, Mingjin; Li, Xiucang; Sun, Hemin; Zhai, Jianqing; Jiang, Tong; Wang, Yanjun

    2018-02-01

    We used daily maximum temperature data (1986-2100) from the COSMO-CLM (COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling in CLimate Mode) regional climate model and the population statistics for China in 2010 to determine the frequency, intensity, coverage, and population exposure of extreme maximum temperature events (EMTEs) with the intensity-area-duration method. Between 1986 and 2005 (reference period), the frequency, intensity, and coverage of EMTEs are 1330-1680 times yr-1, 31.4-33.3°C, and 1.76-3.88 million km2, respectively. The center of the most severe EMTEs is located in central China and 179.5-392.8 million people are exposed to EMTEs annually. Relative to 1986-2005, the frequency, intensity, and coverage of EMTEs increase by 1.13-6.84, 0.32-1.50, and 15.98%-30.68%, respectively, under 1.5°C warming; under 2.0°C warming, the increases are 1.73-12.48, 0.64-2.76, and 31.96%-50.00%, respectively. It is possible that both the intensity and coverage of future EMTEs could exceed the most severe EMTEs currently observed. Two new centers of EMTEs are projected to develop under 1.5°C warming, one in North China and the other in Southwest China. Under 2.0°C warming, a fourth EMTE center is projected to develop in Northwest China. Under 1.5 and 2.0°C warming, population exposure is projected to increase by 23.2%-39.2% and 26.6%-48%, respectively. From a regional perspective, population exposure is expected to increase most rapidly in Southwest China. A greater proportion of the population in North, Northeast, and Northwest China will be exposed to EMTEs under 2.0°C warming. The results show that a warming world will lead to increases in the intensity, frequency, and coverage of EMTEs. Warming of 2.0°C will lead to both more severe EMTEs and the exposure of more people to EMTEs. Given the probability of the increased occurrence of more severe EMTEs than in the past, it is vitally important to China that the global temperature increase is limited within 1.5°C.

  17. Detecting latitudinal and altitudinal expansion of invasive bamboo Phyllostachys edulis and Phyllostachys bambusoides (Poaceae) in Japan to project potential habitats under 1.5°C-4.0°C global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takano, Kohei Takenaka; Hibino, Kenshi; Numata, Ayaka; Oguro, Michio; Aiba, Masahiro; Shiogama, Hideo; Takayabu, Izuru; Nakashizuka, Tohru

    2017-12-01

    Rapid expansion of exotic bamboos has lowered species diversity in Japan's ecosystems by hampering native plant growth. The invasive potential of bamboo, facilitated by global warming, may also affect other countries with developing bamboo industries. We examined past (1975-1980) and recent (2012) distributions of major exotic bamboos ( Phyllostachys edulis and P. bambusoides ) in areas adjacent to 145 weather stations in central and northern Japan. Bamboo stands have been established at 17 sites along the latitudinal and altitudinal distributional limit during the last three decades. Ecological niche modeling indicated that temperature had a strong influence on bamboo distribution. Using mean annual temperature and sun radiation data, we reproduced bamboo distribution (accuracy = 0.93 and AUC (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) = 0.92). These results infer that exotic bamboo distribution has shifted northward and upslope, in association with recent climate warming. Then, we simulated future climate data and projected the climate change impact on the potential habitat distribution of invasive bamboos under different temperature increases (i.e., 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 3.0°C, and 4.0°C) relative to the preindustrial period. Potential habitats in central and northern Japan were estimated to increase from 35% under the current climate (1980-2000) to 46%-48%, 51%-54%, 61%-67%, and 77%-83% under 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 3.0°C, and 4.0°C warming levels, respectively. These infer that the risk areas can increase by 1.3 times even under a 1.5°C scenario and expand by 2.3 times under a 4.0°C scenario. For sustainable ecosystem management, both mitigation and adaptation are necessary: bamboo planting must be carefully monitored in predicted potential habitats, which covers most of Japan.

  18. Life stage-specific effects of the fungicide pyrimethanil and temperature on the snail Physella acuta (Draparnaud, 1805) disclose the pitfalls for the aquatic risk assessment under global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seeland, Anne; Albrand, Jennifer; Oehlmann, Jörg; Müller, Ruth

    2013-01-01

    It can be suggested that the combined stress of pesticide pollution and suboptimal temperature influences the sensitivity of life stages of aquatic invertebrates differently. The embryo, juvenile, half- and full-life-cycle toxicity tests performed with the snail Physella acuta at different concentrations (0.06–0.5 or 1.0 mg L −1 ) of the model fungicide pyrimethanil at 15, 20 and 25 °C revealed, that pyrimethanil caused concentration-dependent effects at all test temperatures. Interestingly, the ecotoxicity of pyrimethanil was higher at lower (suboptimal) temperature for embryo hatching and F 1 reproduction, but its ecotoxicity for juvenile growth and F 0 reproduction increased with increasing temperature. The life-stage specific temperature-dependent ecotoxicity of pyrimethanil and the high fungicide susceptibility of the invasive snail clearly demonstrate the complexity of pesticide–temperature interactions and the challenge to draw conclusions for the risk of pesticides under the impact of global climate change. -- Highlights: ► Physella acuta reacts highly sensitively to exposure to pyrimethanil. ► The ecotoxicity of pyrimethanil is life-stage specific. ► Pyrimethanil and temperature stress influenced the development interactively. -- The aquatic risk of pesticides under climate change cannot be adequately assessed by recent strategies for the regular risk assessment of agrochemicals

  19. Global Content in Global Coursebooks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mimoun Melliti

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available This study aims at exploring the issue of “globality” in global coursebooks as manifested in investing features of connectedness, avoiding inappropriacy, and preserving inclusivity. To do this exploration, two research methods, content analysis and the questionnaire, were adopted. The content of an example of global coursebooks, Headway Intermediate (H/I, in addition to the perception of 251 of its users at Institute Bourguiba for Living Languages (IBLV were investigated. The results obtained revealed that “globality,” in terms of connectedness, inappropriacy, and inclusivity is partial in H/I as learners’ perceptions of it do not map with the content in the coursebook. This study raises questions about the suitability of global coursebooks to globally diverse learners and reveals the necessity of taking measures in the direction of localizing the content of English as a foreign language (EFL coursebooks.

  20. Global Rome

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Is 21st-century Rome a global city? Is it part of Europe's core or periphery? This volume examines the “real city” beyond Rome's historical center, exploring the diversity and challenges of life in neighborhoods affected by immigration, neoliberalism, formal urban planning, and grassroots social...... movements. The contributors engage with themes of contemporary urban studies–the global city, the self-made city, alternative modernities, capital cities and nations, urban change from below, and sustainability. Global Rome serves as a provocative introduction to the Eternal City and makes an original...

  1. Mortalidade global e cardiovascular e fatores de risco de pacientes em hemodiálise Mortalidad global y cardiovascular y factores de riesgo de pacientes en hemodiálisis Global and cardiovascular mortality and risk factors in patients under hemodialysis treatment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fátima Aparecida A. Almeida

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available FUNDAMENTO: Mortalidade global e cardiovascular (CV elevada de pacientes em hemodiálise. OBJETIVO: Avaliação da mortalidade global e CV e identificação do risco de pacientes em hemodiálise. MÉTODOS: Estudo observacional, prospectivo. Estudados 334 pacientes em três anos. Desfechos primários: mortalidade global e CV. Sobrevida avaliada pelo método de Kaplan-Meier. Identificação de variáveis de risco pela Regressão de Cox, bi e multivariada. RESULTADOS: Foram estudados 189 (56,6% homens, idade 48,8 ± 14,2 anos, maioria de não brancos (295[88,3%] e com escolaridade de 0 a menor que 8 anos (211[63,2%]. Mortalidade total de 21,6% (72/334, 50% sobrevivendo 146 meses, e mortalidade CV de 41,7%(30/72, 75% sobrevivendo 141 meses. Na análise bivariada, o RR de óbito não cardiovascular (ONCV e CV aumentou com Idade >60 anos, Hb 126 mg/dl; de ONCV apenas, com baixa escolaridade, viuvez, Hb100 mg/dl, produto Ca x P 9,2 mg/dl; diminuiu com PA>140/90 mmHg (antes da sessão de HD e Ht>36%; de óbito CV apenas, aumentou com creatinina >9,4 mg/dl. Na análise multivariada, o RR de ONCV e CV aumentou com idade >60 anos e Hb126 mg/dl e o de ONCV com taxa de remoção de ureia na hemodiálise (Kt/V 60 anos e Hb126 mg/dl e ONCV Kt/VFUNDAMENTO: Mortalidad global y cardiovascular (CV elevada de pacientes en hemodiálisis OBJETIVO: Evaluación de la mortalidad global y CV e identificación del riesgo de paciente en hemodiálisis. MÉTODOS: Estudio observacional, prospectivo. Estudiados 334 pacientes en tres años. Desenlaces primarios: mortalidad global y CV. Sobrevida evaluada por el método de Kaplan-Meier. Identificación de variables de riesgo por la Regresión de Cox, bi y multivariada. RESULTADOS: Se estudiaron 189 (56,6% hombres, edad 48,8 ± 14,2 años, mayoría no blancos (295[88,3%] y con escolaridad de 0 a menor que 8 años (211[63,2%]. Mortalidad total de 21,6% (72/334, 50% sobreviviendo 146 meses, y mortalidad CV de 41,7% (30/72, 75

  2. Global Managers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barakat, Livia L.; Lorenz, Melanie P.; Ramsey, Jase R.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: – The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of cultural intelligence (CQ) on the job performance of global managers. Design/methodology/approach: – In total, 332 global managers were surveyed from multinational companies operating in Brazil. The mediating effect of job...... satisfaction was tested on the CQ-job performance relationship. Findings: – The findings suggest that job satisfaction transmits the effect of CQ to job performance, such that global managers high in CQ exhibit more job satisfaction in an international setting, and therefore perform better at their jobs....... Practical implications: – Results imply that global managers should increase their CQ in order to improve their job satisfaction and ultimately perform better in an international context. Originality/value: – The authors make three primary contributions to the international business literature. First...

  3. Global Derivatives

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Torben Juul

    , postgraduate qualification or MBA programme. This book also caters for practicing managers and executives who need to understand current developments in global derivatives markets and require cutting-edge insight on strategic risk management issues. Dr Torben Juul Andersen is currently Associate Professor...... approaches to dealing in the global business environment." - Sharon Brown-Hruska, Commissioner, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, USA. "This comprehensive survey of modern risk management using derivative securities is a fine demonstration of the practical relevance of modern derivatives theory to risk...... management practice. Of particular note is the global and integrated approach chosen in this book which should be of special interest to aspiring managers active in global and international markets." - Dr Jean-Pierre Zigrand, Lecturer in Finance, London School of Economics, UK. More than 90 per cent...

  4. Gendered globalization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Milwertz, Cecilia Nathansen; Cai, Yiping

    2017-01-01

    Both the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Nordic countries (Sweden, Iceland, Denmark, Norway and Finland) view gender equality as a social justice issue and are politically committed towards achieving gender equality nationally and internationally. Since China has taken a proactive position o...... on globalization and global governance, gender equality is possibly an area that China may wish to explore in collaboration with the Nordic countries....

  5. Another globalization

    OpenAIRE

    Ion Bucur

    2007-01-01

    Finding the anachronisms and the failures of the present globalization, as well as the vitiated system of world-wide government, has stimulated the debates regarding the identification of a more equitable form of globalization to favor the acceleration of the economic increase and the reduction of poverty.The deficiency of the present international economic institutions, especially the lack of transparency and democratic responsibility, claims back with acuteness the reformation of ...

  6. Alternative globalization

    OpenAIRE

    Džuverović, Nemanja

    2011-01-01

    The paper analyzes different models of political and economic cooperation in Latin America. While the developed capitalist countries, in conditions of globalized production, tend to impose the neoliberal model as the only viable one Latin American actors are creating different forms of cooperation. The text offers a view of three such models and tries to find broader implications, if those models would be introduced at the global level.

  7. The Globalization of Esotericism

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hanegraaff, W.J.

    2015-01-01

    In recent discussions about the study of esotericism, the adjective "Western" has come under critical scrutiny. Shouldn’t "esotericism" be understood as a global rather than just a Western field of research? Doesn’t the very concept of a "Western esotericism" logically imply that there must be an

  8. Global warming

    CERN Document Server

    Hulme, M

    1998-01-01

    Global warming-like deforestation, the ozone hole and the loss of species- has become one of the late 20the century icons of global environmental damage. The threat, is not the reality, of such a global climate change has motivated governments. businesses and environmental organisations, to take serious action ot try and achieve serious control of the future climate. This culminated last December in Kyoto in the agreement for legally-binding climate protocol. In this series of three lectures I will provide a perspective on the phenomenon of global warming that accepts the scientific basis for our concern, but one that also recognises the dynamic interaction between climate and society that has always exited The future will be no different. The challenge of global warning is not to pretend it is not happening (as with some pressure groups), nor to pretend it threatens global civilisation (as with other pressure groups), and it is not even a challenge to try and stop it from happening-we are too far down the ro...

  9. How global brands compete.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holt, Douglas B; Quelch, John A; Taylor, Earl L

    2004-09-01

    It's time to rethink global branding. More than two decades ago, Harvard Business School professor Theodore Levitt argued that corporations should grow by selling standardized products all over the world. But consumers in most countries had trouble relating to generic products, so executives instead strove for global scale on backstage activities such as production while customizing product features and selling techniques to local tastes. Such "glocal" strategies now rule marketing. Global branding has lost more luster recently because transnational companies have been under siege, with brands like Coca-Cola and Nike becoming lightning rods for antiglobalization protests. The instinctive reaction of most transnational companies has been to try to fly below the radar. But global brands can't escape notice. In fact, most transnational corporations don't realize that because of their power and pervasiveness, people view them differently than they do other firms. In a research project involving 3,300 consumers in 41 countries, the authors found that most people choose one global brand over another because of differences in the brands'global qualities. Ratherthan ignore the global characteristics of their brands, firms must learn to manage those characteristics. That's critical, because future growth for most companies will likely come from foreign markets. Consumers base preferences on three dimensions of global brands--quality (signaled by a company's global stature); the cultural myths that brands author; and firms' efforts to address social problems. The authors also found that it didn't matter to consumers whether the brands they bought were American--a remarkable finding considering that the study was conducted when anti-American sentiment in many nations was on the rise.

  10. Globalization, Development and Human Security

    OpenAIRE

    Bogdan Ștefanachi

    2011-01-01

    The conjunction between globalization, development and human security is absolutely necessary and extremely useful to understand and to explain the contemporary space of international relations. The globalization process, even more obvious after the end of Cold War, offers the conditions to define human development and human security, focusing on the normative priority of the impact of policies on the individual. The international space, transformed under the pressure of globalization, become...

  11. Global Trends: Paradox of Progress

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    human history . Human and Animal Health Under Pressure. Changing environmental conditions and increasing global connectivity will affect...PARADOX OF PROGRESS A pub l ica t ion o f the Nat ional In te l l i gence Counci l GLOBAL TRENDS JANUARY 2017 NIC 2017-001 ISBN 978-0-16-093614...1 The Map of the Future 5 Trends Transforming the Global Landscape 29 Near Future: Tensions Are Rising 45 Three Scenarios for the Distant Future

  12. Global Inequality: An Introduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michelle Bata

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Global inequality has been little analyzed by sociologists despite their claim to be the scienti?c experts most in charge of the study of human inequalities and social strati?cation. Most undergraduate courses on social inequalities study race, class and gender without ever acknowledging that the greatest inequalities are between those individuals and households that live in developed versus less developed societies. The amount of international inequality has vastly outweighed within country inequalities since at least the 1870s when a wave of economic globalization under the Pax Britannica increased average wages in the core while leaving most of the periphery and the semiperiphery at subsistence levels. Increasing inequality was one of the most important consequences of nineteenth century globalization, and this fact is pregnant with importance for those who seek to understand what the consequences of twentieth century globalization may be. Resistance to global capitalism and attacks on symbols of power are likely to increase, just as they did in the decades following the great expansion of trade and investment in the last decades of the nineteenth century. Research into the causes of increasing inequalities is thus extremely important for social scientists, policy makers and global citizens who need to understand how the world-system works in order to change it.

  13. Global Inequality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Niño-Zarazúa, Miguel; Roope, Laurence; Tarp, Finn

    2017-01-01

    This paper measures trends in global interpersonal inequality during 1975–2010 using data from the most recent version of the World Income Inequality Database (WIID). The picture that emerges using ‘absolute,’ and even ‘centrist’ measures of inequality, is very different from the results obtained...... by centrist measures such as the Krtscha, could return to 1975 levels, at today's domestic and global per capita income levels, but this would require quite dramatic structural reforms to reduce domestic inequality levels in most countries....... using standard ‘relative’ inequality measures such as the Gini coefficient or Coefficient of Variation. Relative global inequality has declined substantially over the decades. In contrast, ‘absolute’ inequality, as captured by the Standard Deviation and Absolute Gini, has increased considerably...

  14. Global Derivatives

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Torben Juul

    ." - Steen Parsholt, Chairman and CEO, Aon Nordic Region. "Andersen has done a wonderful job of developing a comprehensive text that deals with risk management in global markets. I would recommend this book to any student or businessman who has a need to better understand the risks and risk management......""In Global Derivatives: A Strategic Risk Management Perspective", Torben Juul Andersen has succeeded to gather in one book a complete and thorough summary and an easy-to-read explanation of all types of derivative instruments and their background, and their use in modern management of risk...... approaches to dealing in the global business environment." - Sharon Brown-Hruska, Commissioner, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, USA. "This comprehensive survey of modern risk management using derivative securities is a fine demonstration of the practical relevance of modern derivatives theory to risk...

  15. Global Inequality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Niño-Zarazúa, Miguel; Roope, Laurence; Tarp, Finn

    2017-01-01

    This paper measures trends in global interpersonal inequality during 1975–2010 using data from the most recent version of the World Income Inequality Database (WIID). The picture that emerges using ‘absolute,’ and even ‘centrist’ measures of inequality, is very different from the results obtained...... using standard ‘relative’ inequality measures such as the Gini coefficient or Coefficient of Variation. Relative global inequality has declined substantially over the decades. In contrast, ‘absolute’ inequality, as captured by the Standard Deviation and Absolute Gini, has increased considerably...... and unabated. Like these ‘absolute’ measures, our ‘centrist’ inequality indicators, the Krtscha measure and an intermediate Gini, also register a pronounced increase in global inequality, albeit, in the case of the latter, with a decline during 2005 to 2010. A critical question posed by our findings is whether...

  16. Global rotation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosquist, K.

    1980-01-01

    Global rotation in cosmological models is defined on an observational basis. A theorem is proved saying that, for rigid motion, the global rotation is equal to the ordinary local vorticity. The global rotation is calculated in the space-time homogeneous class III models, with Godel's model as a special case. It is shown that, with the exception of Godel's model, the rotation in these models becomes infinite for finite affine parameter values. In some directions the rotation changes sign and becomes infinite in a direction opposite to the local vorticity. The points of infinite rotation are identified as conjugate points along the null geodesics. The physical interpretation of the infinite rotation is discussed, and a comparison with the behaviour of the area distance at conjugate points is given. (author)

  17. Assessment of the Impact of Metropolitan-Scale Urban Planning Scenarios on the Moist Thermal Environment under Global Warming: A Study of the Tokyo Metropolitan Area Using Regional Climate Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asuka Suzuki-Parker

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Using a high-resolution regional climate model coupled with urban canopy model, the present study provides the first attempt in quantifying the impact of metropolitan-scale urban planning scenarios on moist thermal environment under global warming. Tokyo metropolitan area is selected as a test case. Three urban planning scenarios are considered: status quo, dispersed city, and compact city. Their impact on the moist thermal environment is assessed using wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT. Future projections for the 2070s show a 2–4°C increase in daytime mean WBGT relative to the current climate. The urban scenario impacts are shown to be small, with a −0.4 to +0.4°C range. Relative changes in temperature and humidity as the result of a given urban scenario are shown to be critical in determining the sign of the WBGT changes; however, such changes are not necessarily determined by local changes in urban land surface parameters. These findings indicate that urban land surface changes may improve or worsen the local moist thermal environment and that metropolitan-scale urban planning is inefficient in mitigating heat-related health risks for mature cities like Tokyo.

  18. Will Half a Degree Make a Difference? Robust Projections of Indices of Mean and Extreme Climate in Europe Under 1.5°C, 2°C, and 3°C Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dosio, Alessandro; Fischer, Erich M.

    2018-01-01

    Based on high-resolution models, we investigate the change in climate extremes and impact-relevant indicators over Europe under different levels of global warming. We specifically assess the robustness of the changes and the benefits of limiting warming to 1.5°C instead of 2°C. Compared to 1.5°C world, a further 0.5°C warming results in a robust change of minimum summer temperature indices (mean, Tn10p, and Tn900p) over more than 70% of Europe. Robust changes (more than 0.5°C) in maximum temperature affect smaller areas (usually less than 20%). There is a substantial nonlinear change of fixed-threshold indices, with more than 60% increase of the number of tropical nights over southern Europe and more than 50% decrease in the number of frost days over central Europe. The change in mean precipitation due to 0.5°C warming is mostly nonsignificant at the grid point level, but, locally, it is accompanied by a more marked change in extreme rainfall.

  19. Going global?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fejerskov, Adam Moe; Rasmussen, Christel

    2016-01-01

    During the past decade, academic attention to the role of private foundations in international development cooperation has greatly intensified. The largest foundations have increased their global giving and moved towards strategic social impact, but we do not know if such processes have also...... occurred at a more micro level. This article explores this issue by studying the international activities of Danish foundations. It finds that grant-making on global issues is increasing, and that several foundations have undergone transformations in their approach to grantmaking, making them surprisingly...

  20. Global overeksponering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosenstand, Claus A. Foss

    2007-01-01

    ved begyndelsen til en ny global verden, som vi bliver nød til at indrette som sådan, og jeg tror at den nye ungdomskulter er ekstremt sensible overfor de globale strømninger, og vi gør klogt i at tænke over, hvad det er, der egentligt er på færre i stedet for at pege på sagesløse forældre om skyldige....

  1. Going global

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meade, W.; Poirier, J.L.

    1992-01-01

    This article discusses the global market for independent power projects and the increased competition and strategic alliances that are occurring to take advantage of the increasing demand. The topics of the article include the amount of involvement of US companies in the global market, the forces driving the market toward independent power, markets in the United Kingdom, North America, Turkey, Central America, South America, the Caribbean, Europe, the Federal Republic of Germany, India, the former Eastern European countries, Asia and the Pacific nations, and niche markets

  2. Global Trends

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Global Trends. Worldwide metro Ethernet equipment revenue hit $2.5 billion in 2002 (Infonetics Research). Projected to grow 134% to $5.9 billion by 2006 (24% CAGR). Worldwide metro Ethernet equipment ports hit 906,000 in 2002 (Infonetics Research). Will grow ...

  3. Global Games

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Bottenburg, Maarten

    2001-01-01

    Why is soccer the sport of choice in South America, while baseball has soared to popularity in the Carribean? How did cricket become India's national sport, while China is a stronghold of table tennis? In Global Games, Maarten van Bottenburg asserts that it is the 'hidden competition' of social and

  4. Justice Globalism

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wilson, Erin; Steger, Manfred; Siracusa, Joseph; Battersby, Paul

    2014-01-01

    The pursuit of a global order founded on universal rules extends beyond economics into the normative spheres of law, politics and justice. Justice globalists claim universal principles applicable to all societies irrespective of religion or ideology. This view privileges human rights, democracy and

  5. Globalizing America

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brewer, Thomas L.; Boyd, Gavin

    An argument that globalization is an ungoverned integration process in which US firms are agents of structural change. It describes the benefits and costs (for example, generating pressure for protection of US home markets), and reviews the expansion of interdependencies between the US and others....

  6. Application of liquid chromatography/electrospray ionization ion trap tandem mass spectrometry for the evaluation of global nucleic acids: methylation in garden cress under exposure to CuO nanoparticles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alcazar Magana, Armando; Wrobel, Kazimierz; Corrales Escobosa, Alma Rosa; Wrobel, Katarzyna

    2016-01-15

    -dimers as precursor ions proved its utility for the assessment of global methylation of DNA and RNA in plants under stress imposed by CuO NPs. Detection of copper adducts with cytosine-containing ions, and their elimination by washing extracts with Cu(I) chelator, calls for further investigation. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  7. Impact and prevention on global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Heon Ryeol

    2003-11-01

    This book deals with impact and prevention on global warming with eight chapters, which introduce the change after the earth was born and natural environment, how is global atmospheric environment under the control of radiant energy? What does global warming look with the earth history like? What's the status of global warming so far? How does climate change happen? What is the impact by global warming and climate change and for preservation of global environment of 21 century with consumption of energy, measure and prospect on global warming. It has reference, index and three appendixes.

  8. Panwapa: Global Kids, Global Connections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berson, Ilene R.; Berson, Michael J.

    2009-01-01

    Panwapa, created by the Sesame Street Workshop of PBS, is an example of an initiative on the Internet designed to enhance students' learning by exposing them to global communities. Panwapa means "Here on Earth" in Tshiluba, a Bantu language spoken in the Democratic Republic of Congo. At the Panwapa website, www.panwapa.org, children aged…

  9. Globalization & technology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Narula, Rajneesh

    of innovation" understanding of learning. Narula and Smith reconcile an important paradox. On the one hand, locations and firms are increasingly interdependent through supranational organisations, regional integration, strategic alliances, and the flow of investments, technologies, ideas and people......Technology and globalization are interdependent processes. Globalization has a fundamental influence on the creation and diffusion of technology, which, in turn, affects the interdependence of firms and locations. This volume examines the international aspect of this interdependence at two levels....... The boundaries of firms and countries are increasingly porous and imprecise, because firms use alliances and outsourcing, and countries are rarely technologically self-sufficient. On the other hand, locations remain distinct and idiosyncratic, with innovation systems remaining largely nationally bound. Knowledge...

  10. Conceived globals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cheraghi, Maryam; Schøtt, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    A firm may be conceived global, in the sense that, before its birth, the founding entrepreneur has a transnational network of advisors which provides an embedding for organising the upstart that may include assembling resources and marketing abroad. The purpose is to account for the entrepreneurs......' transnational networking as it originates in the pre-birth phase of intending to start, and as it evolves through the starting and into the operating phases, in context of culture. By using sample from 61 societies with 88,628 entrepreneurs we found that entrepreneurs are networking transnationally across...... the intending, starting and operating phases, fairly constantly with only small fluctuations. The firm is conceived global in terms of the entrepreneur's transnational networking already in the pre-birth phase, when the entrepreneur is intending to start the firm. These phase effects hardly depend on attributes...

  11. Globalization strategy

    OpenAIRE

    Shimizu, Ryuei

    1992-01-01

    History of overseas strategies of Japanese firms can be divided into three periods; until 1960's, when import and export were the main focus; from 1970's to the first half of 1980's, when establishing overseas bases was a major interest for clear purposes of reducing labor cost, averting trade conflicts, or securing natural resources; and after 1985, when strategy started to be formulated from more global viewpoint in order to cope with new situation arising from stronger yen and Japan having...

  12. On Globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles Hanly

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available É impressionante como, num curto período de tempo, o site da internet “Facebook” fortaleceu o conceito de McLuhan sobre “aldeia global” com o de “lugar de encontro” e ainda criou as bases potenciais para a existência de uma vizinhança global. Todos os principais avanços em tecnologia da comunicação fizeram do mundo, desde McLuhan, algo muito mais aldeão do que foi antes, mesmo no tempo de McLuhan duas décadas atrás. Mas a globalização é um processo e é preciso compreender sua estrutura e seu dinamismo à maneira dos analistas que procuram, com o intuito de melhorar a vida dos indivíduos, entender a psique humana. Pode, pois, a psicanálise contribuir para a compreensão da aldeia global? Podemos ter a esperança de que a aldeia global formada pelas tecnologias comunicacionais nos pacifiquem e nos unam?

  13. Energy globalization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tierno Andres

    1997-01-01

    Toward the future, the petroleum could stop to be the main energy source in the world and the oil companies will only survive if they are adjusted to the new winds that blow in the general energy sector. It will no longer be enough to be the owner of the resource (petroleum or gas) so that a company subsists and be profitable in the long term. The future, it will depend in great measure of the vision with which the oil companies face the globalization concept that begins to experience the world in the energy sector. Concepts like globalization, competition, integration and diversification is something that the companies of the hydrocarbons sector will have very present. Globalization means that it should be been attentive to what happens in the world, beyond of the limits of its territory, or to be caught by competitive surprises that can originate in very distant places. The search of cleaner and friendlier energy sources with the means it is not the only threat that it should fear the petroleum. Their substitution for electricity in the big projects of massive transport, the technology of the communications, the optic fiber and the same relationships with the aboriginal communities are aspects that also compete with the future of the petroleum

  14. Globalization, Inequality, Say’s Law, and Fiscal Globalism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerasimos T. Soldatos

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available This is a brief note maintaining that financial globalization has been faster than the integration of the remaining sectors of the world economy, thus encouraging wealth inequality, under-production, and under-consumption in line with Say’s Law. Financial investment has become more profitable than real investment, discouraging production ventures, and weakening labor’s relative income position and purchasing power. Moreover, this article works out a model of international government indirect tax competition as a policy means against increasing inequality. The mentality under which this tax policy paradigm is put forward is that the competition of nation states in a fiscal globalism fashion crystallizes the optimal level of centralization under globalism; optimal, that is, from the viewpoint of safeguarding against the manipulation of world markets by financiers.

  15. Global Noise and Global Englishes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alastair Pennycook

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Global Noise: Rap and Hip-Hop Outside the USA, alluding to Tricia Rose’s US rap-music book, Black Noise, aims to do much more than merely extend the reach of the study of rap and hip-hop beyond the USA, as its subtitle might suggest. While acknowledging the importance of the work of both Rose and Potter, this collection’s editor, Tony Mitchell, contests their respective views that rap and hip-hop are essentially expressions of African-American culture, and that all forms of rap and hip-hop derive from these origins. He argues that these forms have become ‘a vehicle for global youth affiliations and a tool for reworking local iden- tity all over the world’.

  16. Global safety

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dorien J. DeTombe

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Global Safety is a container concept referring to various threats such as HIV/Aids, floods and terrorism; threats with different causes and different effects. These dangers threaten people, the global economy and the slity of states. Policy making for this kind of threats often lack an overview of the real causes and the interventions are based on a too shallow analysis of the problem, mono-disciplinary and focus mostly only on the effects. It would be more appropriate to develop policy related to these issues by utilizing the approaches, methods and tools that have been developed for complex societal problems. Handling these complex societal problems should be done multidisciplinary instead of mono-disciplinary. In order to give politicians the opportunity to handle complex problems multidisciplinary, multidisciplinary research institutes should be created. These multidisciplinary research institutes would provide politicians with better approaches to handle this type of problem. In these institutes the knowledge necessary for the change of these problems can be created through the use of the Compram methodology which has been developed specifically for handling complex societal problems. In a six step approach, experts, actors and policymakers discuss the content of the problem and the possible changes. The framework method uses interviewing, the Group Decision Room, simulation models and scenario's in a cooperative way. The methodology emphasizes the exchange of knowledge and understanding by communication among and between the experts, actors and politicians meanwhile keeping emotion in mind. The Compram methodology will be further explained in relation to global safety in regard to terrorism, economy, health care and agriculture.

  17. Global ambitions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scruton, M.

    1996-01-01

    The article discusses global ambitions concerning the Norwegian petroleum industry. With the advent of the NORSOK (Forum for development and operation) cost reduction programme and a specific focus on key sectors of the market, the Norwegian oil industry is beginning to market its considerable technological achievements internationally. Obviously, the good fortune of having tested this technology in a very demanding domestic arena means that Norwegian offshore support companies, having succeeded at home, are perfectly poised to export their expertise to the international sector. Drawing on the traditional strengths of the country's maritime heritage, with mobile rig and specialized vessel business featuring strongly, other key technologies have been developed. 5 figs., 1 tab

  18. Global health and global health ethics

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Benatar, S. R; Brock, Gillian

    2011-01-01

    ...? What are our responsibilities and how can we improve global health? Global Health and Global Health Ethics addresses these questions from the perspective of a range of disciplines, including medicine, philosophy and the social sciences...

  19. Global teaching of global seismology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, S.; Wysession, M.

    2005-12-01

    Our recent textbook, Introduction to Seismology, Earthquakes, & Earth Structure (Blackwell, 2003) is used in many countries. Part of the reason for this may be our deliberate attempt to write the book for an international audience. This effort appears in several ways. We stress seismology's long tradition of global data interchange. Our brief discussions of the science's history illustrate the contributions of scientists around the world. Perhaps most importantly, our discussions of earthquakes, tectonics, and seismic hazards take a global view. Many examples are from North America, whereas others are from other areas. Our view is that non-North American students should be exposed to North American examples that are type examples, and that North American students should be similarly exposed to examples elsewhere. For example, we illustrate how the Euler vector geometry changes a plate boundary from spreading, to strike-slip, to convergence using both the Pacific-North America boundary from the Gulf of California to Alaska and the Eurasia-Africa boundary from the Azores to the Mediterranean. We illustrate diffuse plate boundary zones using western North America, the Andes, the Himalayas, the Mediterranean, and the East Africa Rift. The subduction zone discussions examine Japan, Tonga, and Chile. We discuss significant earthquakes both in the U.S. and elsewhere, and explore hazard mitigation issues in different contexts. Both comments from foreign colleagues and our experience lecturing overseas indicate that this approach works well. Beyond the specifics of our text, we believe that such a global approach is facilitated by the international traditions of the earth sciences and the world youth culture that gives students worldwide common culture. For example, a video of the scene in New Madrid, Missouri that arose from a nonsensical earthquake prediction in 1990 elicits similar responses from American and European students.

  20. GAR Global Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

  1. Health promotion in globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Álvaro Franco-Giraldo

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Objective: to unravel some theoretical and factual elements required to implement more effective health promotion strategies and practices in the field of health services whilst following the great challenges that globalization has imposed on the health systems, which are inevitably expressed in the local context (glocalization. Methodology: a narrative review taking into account the concepts of globalization and health promotion in relation to health determinants. The authors approach some courses of action and strategies for health promotion based on the social principles and universal values that guide health promotion, health service reorientation and primary healthcare, empowerment, social participation, and inter-sectoral and social mobilization. Discussion: the discussion focuses on the redirection of health promotion services in relation to the wave of health reforms that has spread throughout the world under the neoliberal rule. The author also discusses health promotion, its ineffectiveness, and the quest for renewal. Likewise, the author sets priorities for health promotion in relation to social determinants. Conclusion: the current global order, in terms of international relations, is not consistent with the ethical principles of health promotion. In this paper, the author advocates for the implementation of actions to change the social and physical life conditions of people based on changes in the use of power in society and the appropriate practice of politics in the context of globalization in order to achieve the effectiveness of the actions of health promotion.

  2. James Bond and Global Health Diplomacy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sebastian Kevany

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In the 21st Century, distinctions and boundaries between global health, international politics, and the broader interests of the global community are harder to define and enforce than ever before. As a result, global health workers, leaders, and institutions face pressing questions around the nature and extent of their involvement with non-health endeavors, including international conflict resolution, counter-terrorism, and peace-keeping, under the global health diplomacy (GHD paradigm.

  3. Going Global

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harrington, Brooke

    2015-01-01

    This study links theories of relationality and institutional change to deepen understanding of professionals’ role in globalization. In previous institutional research, it has been conventional to treat professionals as agents of firms or transnational organizations, and institutional change...... of the asset-holding trust from a tool of medieval English landowners into a mainstay of contemporary international finance. Drawing on interviews with 61 wealth management professionals in Europe, Asia, Africa, and the Americas, this article uses their accounts of the diffusion and deployment of trusts...... as the result of planned, strategic ‘professional projects’. By bringing a relational analysis to bear on the problem of institutional change, this study reasserts the theoretical significance of individual agency and everyday interactions between professionals and their clients, peers, and organizational...

  4. Globalization and Tourism: Study case Romania

    OpenAIRE

    Rotariu, Ilie

    2007-01-01

    The globalization process is seen from an Eastern point of view under Western theories. A particular option is offered under bio structure and entropy theories. A detailed analyze of Romanian tourism before ’90 s tries to save statistics and information classified during communists. Among the ways of extending globalization, the economical transition in former socialist countries is pointed out with an example on Romanian tourism. A large space is allowed to evaluate the future of global econ...

  5. Globalization, Development and Human Security

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bogdan Ștefanachi

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The conjunction between globalization, development and human security is absolutely necessary and extremely useful to understand and to explain the contemporary space of international relations. The globalization process, even more obvious after the end of Cold War, offers the conditions to define human development and human security, focusing on the normative priority of the impact of policies on the individual. The international space, transformed under the pressure of globalization, becomes relevant in the extent that an alternative discourse that encompasses all these transformations comes out. This new narration transforms the individual in the referent object of development and security, as well.

  6. Global carbon inequality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubacek, Klaus; Baiocchi, Giovanni; Feng, Kuishuang; Munoz Castillo, Raul; Sun, Laixiang; Xue, Jinjun

    2017-01-01

    Global climate change and inequality are inescapably linked both in terms of who contributes climate change and who suffers the consequences. This fact is also partly reflected in two United Nations (UN) processes: on the one hand, the Paris Agreement of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change under which countries agreed to hold the increase in the global average temperature to below 2 C above pre-industrial levels and, on the other hand, the UN's Sustainable Development Goals aiming to end poverty. These agreements are seen as important foundation to put the world nations on a sustainable pathway. However, how these agreements can be achieved or whether they are even mutually compatible is less clear. We explore the global carbon inequality between and within countries and the carbon implications of poverty alleviation by combining detailed consumer expenditure surveys for different income categories for a wide range of countries with an environmentally extended multi-regional input-output approach to estimate carbon footprints of different household groups, globally, and assess the carbon implications of moving the poorest people out of poverty. Given the current context, increasing income leads to increasing carbon footprints and makes global targets for mitigating greenhouse gases more difficult to achieve given the pace of technological progress and current levels of fossil fuel dependence. We conclude that the huge level of carbon inequality requires a critical discussion of undifferentiated income growth. Current carbon-intensive lifestyles and consumption patterns need to enter the climate discourse to a larger extent. (orig.)

  7. Global carbon inequality

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hubacek, Klaus [University of Maryland, Department of Geographical Sciences, College Park, MD (United States); Masaryk University, Department of Environmental Studies, Brno (Czech Republic); Baiocchi, Giovanni [University of Maryland, Department of Geographical Sciences, College Park, MD (United States); University of Maryland, Department of Economics, College Park, MD (United States); Feng, Kuishuang [University of Maryland, Department of Geographical Sciences, College Park, MD (United States); Munoz Castillo, Raul [University of Maryland, Department of Geographical Sciences, College Park, MD (United States); Interamerican Development Bank, Washington, DC (United States); Sun, Laixiang [University of Maryland, Department of Geographical Sciences, College Park, MD (United States); SOAS, University of London, London (United Kingdom); International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria); Xue, Jinjun [Nagoya University, Graduate School of Economics, Nagoya (Japan); Hubei University of Economics, Wuhan (China)

    2017-12-01

    Global climate change and inequality are inescapably linked both in terms of who contributes climate change and who suffers the consequences. This fact is also partly reflected in two United Nations (UN) processes: on the one hand, the Paris Agreement of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change under which countries agreed to hold the increase in the global average temperature to below 2 C above pre-industrial levels and, on the other hand, the UN's Sustainable Development Goals aiming to end poverty. These agreements are seen as important foundation to put the world nations on a sustainable pathway. However, how these agreements can be achieved or whether they are even mutually compatible is less clear. We explore the global carbon inequality between and within countries and the carbon implications of poverty alleviation by combining detailed consumer expenditure surveys for different income categories for a wide range of countries with an environmentally extended multi-regional input-output approach to estimate carbon footprints of different household groups, globally, and assess the carbon implications of moving the poorest people out of poverty. Given the current context, increasing income leads to increasing carbon footprints and makes global targets for mitigating greenhouse gases more difficult to achieve given the pace of technological progress and current levels of fossil fuel dependence. We conclude that the huge level of carbon inequality requires a critical discussion of undifferentiated income growth. Current carbon-intensive lifestyles and consumption patterns need to enter the climate discourse to a larger extent. (orig.)

  8. Global Hearing Loss Prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Clifford Scott; Emmett, Susan D; Robler, Samantha Kleindienst; Tucci, Debara L

    2018-03-07

    Hearing loss is the fourth leading contributor to years lived with a disability worldwide. Most recent estimates indicate that one-half of a billion people suffer from disabling hearing loss worldwide. The social and economic burden is significant. When attributing monetary value to years lived with disability owing to hearing loss, there is greater than $US750 billion lost each year globally. There are numerous contributors to hearing loss, including congenital, infectious, noise exposure, age-related, traumatic, and immune-mediated causes. Understanding the pathophysiology of these factors allows for the development of preventative and treatment strategies specific to the underlying cause. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Global challenges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blix, H.

    1990-01-01

    A major challenge now facing the world is the supply of energy needed for growth and development in a manner which is not only economically viable but also environmentally acceptable and sustainable in view of the demands of and risks to future generations. The internationally most significant pollutants from energy production through fossil fuels are SO 2 and NO x which cause acid rain, and CO 2 which is the most significant contributor to the greenhouse effect. Nuclear power, now providing about 17% of the world's electricity and 5% of the primary energy already is making a notable contribution to avoiding these emissions. While the industrialized countries will need more energy and especially electricity in the future, the needs of the developing countries are naturally much larger and present a tremendous challenge to the shaping of the world's future energy supply system. The advanced countries will have to accept special responsibilities, as they can most easily use advanced technologies and they have been and remain the main contributors to the environmental problems we now face. Energy conservation and resort to new renewable energy sources, though highly desirable, appear inadequate alone to meet the challenges. The world can hardly afford to do without an increased use of nuclear power, although it is strongly contested in many countries. The objections raised against the nuclear option focus on safety, waste management and disposal problems and the risk for proliferation of nuclear weapons. These issues are not without their problems. The risk of proliferation exists but will not appreciably diminish with lesser global reliance on nuclear power. The waste issue is more of a political than a technical problem. The use of nuclear power, or any other energy source, will never be at zero risk, but the risks are constantly reduced by new techniques and practices. The IAEA sees it as one of its priority tasks to promote such techniques. (author)

  10. MODERN FEATURES OF FINANCIAL GLOBALIZATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    VALENTINA FETINIUC

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, financial globalization as latest stage of financial internationalization process becomes to be the most discussed subject by economic scientists. It has many forms of manifestation and directions of development. One of the main features of financial globalization is increasing the role of the financial sector, linked with the expansion of the scope and complexity of foreign economic relations. The financial system has increasingly become a means of redistribution of financial resources in accordance with the needs and possibilities of development of production not only at national but also at the global level. In this work are presented modern views on financial globalization under aspect of concepts, trends, effects and perspectives.

  11. An Enhanced Global Spectral Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    1992-02-27

    Predictability as a Result of the Global Weather Experiment, Sigtuna, Sweden, October 1984. TD 33. (Publication date 19851. Zhang, D., H. Seng and L...Forecast length (total) hfzero cntrl =1 to output initial conditions on IOGSM2 ho clock ho,idy,mo, iyr - hour (hh), day (dd), month (mm), and year (yy...it2dc dercot itime char see under idate iuerr grddim iuout grddim iyr clock see under ho jpblp pblvar jpdim grddim julday clock corresponding julian