WorldWideScience

Sample records for underlying global npdf

  1. Joint constraints on galaxy bias and σ8 through the N-pdf of the galaxy number density

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnalte-Mur, Pablo; Martínez, Vicent J.; Vielva, Patricio; Sanz, José L.; Saar, Enn; Paredes, Silvestre

    2016-01-01

    We present a full description of the N-probability density function of the galaxy number density fluctuations. This N-pdf is given in terms, on the one hand, of the cold dark matter correlations and, on the other hand, of the galaxy bias parameter. The method relies on the assumption commonly adopted that the dark matter density fluctuations follow a local non-linear transformation of the initial energy density perturbations. The N-pdf of the galaxy number density fluctuations allows for an optimal estimation of the bias parameter (e.g., via maximum-likelihood estimation, or Bayesian inference if there exists any a priori information on the bias parameter), and of those parameters defining the dark matter correlations, in particular its amplitude (σ 8 ). It also provides the proper framework to perform model selection between two competitive hypotheses. The parameters estimation capabilities of the N-pdf are proved by SDSS-like simulations (both, ideal log-normal simulations and mocks obtained from Las Damas simulations), showing that our estimator is unbiased. We apply our formalism to the 7th release of the SDSS main sample (for a volume-limited subset with absolute magnitudes M r  ≤ −20). We obtain b-circumflex  = 1.193 ± 0.074 and σ-bar 8  = 0.862 ± 0.080, for galaxy number density fluctuations in cells of the size of 30h −1 Mpc. Different model selection criteria show that galaxy biasing is clearly favoured

  2. Joint constraints on galaxy bias and σ{sub 8} through the N-pdf of the galaxy number density

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arnalte-Mur, Pablo; Martínez, Vicent J. [Observatori Astronòmic de la Universitat de València, C/ Catedràtic José Beltrán, 2, 46980 Paterna, València (Spain); Vielva, Patricio; Sanz, José L. [Instituto de Física de Cantabria (CSIC-UC), Avda. de Los Castros s/n, E-39005—Santander (Spain); Saar, Enn [Cosmology Department, Tartu Observatory, Observatooriumi 1, Tõravere (Estonia); Paredes, Silvestre, E-mail: pablo.arnalte@uv.es, E-mail: vielva@ifca.unican.es, E-mail: martinez@uv.es, E-mail: sanz@ifca.unican.es, E-mail: saar@to.ee, E-mail: silvestre.paredes@upct.es [Departamento de Matemática Aplicada y Estadística, Universidad Politécnica de Cartagena, C/Dr. Fleming s/n, 30203 Cartagena (Spain)

    2016-03-01

    We present a full description of the N-probability density function of the galaxy number density fluctuations. This N-pdf is given in terms, on the one hand, of the cold dark matter correlations and, on the other hand, of the galaxy bias parameter. The method relies on the assumption commonly adopted that the dark matter density fluctuations follow a local non-linear transformation of the initial energy density perturbations. The N-pdf of the galaxy number density fluctuations allows for an optimal estimation of the bias parameter (e.g., via maximum-likelihood estimation, or Bayesian inference if there exists any a priori information on the bias parameter), and of those parameters defining the dark matter correlations, in particular its amplitude (σ{sub 8}). It also provides the proper framework to perform model selection between two competitive hypotheses. The parameters estimation capabilities of the N-pdf are proved by SDSS-like simulations (both, ideal log-normal simulations and mocks obtained from Las Damas simulations), showing that our estimator is unbiased. We apply our formalism to the 7th release of the SDSS main sample (for a volume-limited subset with absolute magnitudes M{sub r} ≤ −20). We obtain b-circumflex  = 1.193 ± 0.074 and σ-bar{sub 8} = 0.862 ± 0.080, for galaxy number density fluctuations in cells of the size of 30h{sup −1}Mpc. Different model selection criteria show that galaxy biasing is clearly favoured.

  3. Testing collinear factorization and nuclear parton distributions with pA collisions at the LHC

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Quiroga-Arias, Paloma [Departamento de Fisica de PartIculas and IGFAE, Universidade de Santiago de Compostela 15706 Santiago de Compostela (Spain); Milhano, Jose Guilherme [CENTRA, Departamento de Fisica, Instituto Superior Tecnico (IST), Av. Rovisco Pais 1, P-1049-001 Lisboa (Portugal); Wiedemann, Urs Achim, E-mail: pquiroga@fpaxpl.usc.es [Physics Department, Theory Unit, CERN, CH-1211 Geneve 23 (Switzerland)

    2011-01-01

    Global perturbative QCD analyses, based on large data sets from electron-proton and hadron collider experiments, provide tight constraints on the parton distribution function (PDF) in the proton. The extension of these analyses to nuclear parton distributions (nPDF) has attracted much interest in recent years. nPDFs are needed as benchmarks for the characterization of hot QCD matter in nucleus-nucleus collisions, and attract further interest since they may show novel signatures of non- linear density-dependent QCD evolution. However, it is not known from first principles whether the factorization of long-range phenomena into process-independent parton distribution, which underlies global PDF extractions for the proton, extends to nuclear effects. As a consequence, assessing the reliability of nPDFs for benchmark calculations goes beyond testing the numerical accuracy of their extraction and requires phenomenological tests of the factorization assumption. Here we argue that a proton-nucleus collision program at the LHC would provide a set of measurements allowing for unprecedented tests of the factorization assumption underlying global nPDF fits.

  4. Testing factorization in pA collisions at the LHC

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Quiroga-Arias, Paloma [Departamento de Fisica de Particulas and IGFAE, Universidade de Santiago de Compostela 15706 Santiago de Compostela (Spain); Milhano, Jose Guilherme [CENTRA, Departamento de Fisica, Instituto Superior Tecnico (IST), Av. Rovisco Pais 1, P-1049-001 Lisboa (Portugal); Physics Department, Theory Unit, CERN, CH-1211 Geneve 23 (Switzerland); Wiedemann, Urs Achim [Physics Department, Theory Unit, CERN, CH-1211 Geneve 23 (Switzerland)

    2011-04-01

    Global perturbative QCD analyses, based on large data sets from e-p and hadron collider experiments, provide tight constraints on the parton distribution function (PDF) in the proton. The extension of these analyses to nuclear parton distributions (nPDF) has attracted much interest in recent years. nPDFs are needed as benchmarks for the characterization of hot QCD matter in nucleus-nucleus collisions, and attract further interest since they may show novel signatures of non-linear density-dependent QCD evolution. However, it is not known from first principles whether the factorization of long-range phenomena into process-independent parton distribution, which underlies global PDF extractions for the proton, extends to nuclear effects. As a consequence, assessing the reliability of nPDFs for benchmark calculations goes beyond testing the numerical accuracy of their extraction and requires phenomenological tests of the factorization assumption. Here we argue that a proton-nucleus collision programme at the LHC, including a rapidity scan, would provide a set of measurements allowing for unprecedented tests of the factorization assumption underlying global nPDF fits.

  5. Testing factorization in pA collisions at the LHC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quiroga-Arias, Paloma; Milhano, Jose Guilherme; Wiedemann, Urs Achim

    2011-01-01

    Global perturbative QCD analyses, based on large data sets from e-p and hadron collider experiments, provide tight constraints on the parton distribution function (PDF) in the proton. The extension of these analyses to nuclear parton distributions (nPDF) has attracted much interest in recent years. nPDFs are needed as benchmarks for the characterization of hot QCD matter in nucleus-nucleus collisions, and attract further interest since they may show novel signatures of non-linear density-dependent QCD evolution. However, it is not known from first principles whether the factorization of long-range phenomena into process-independent parton distribution, which underlies global PDF extractions for the proton, extends to nuclear effects. As a consequence, assessing the reliability of nPDFs for benchmark calculations goes beyond testing the numerical accuracy of their extraction and requires phenomenological tests of the factorization assumption. Here we argue that a proton-nucleus collision programme at the LHC, including a rapidity scan, would provide a set of measurements allowing for unprecedented tests of the factorization assumption underlying global nPDF fits.

  6. On the link between column density distribution and density scaling relation in star formation regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veltchev, Todor; Donkov, Sava; Stanchev, Orlin

    2017-07-01

    We present a method to derive the density scaling relation ∝ L^{-α} in regions of star formation or in their turbulent vicinities from straightforward binning of the column-density distribution (N-pdf). The outcome of the method is studied for three types of N-pdf: power law (7/5≤α≤5/3), lognormal (0.7≲α≲1.4) and combination of lognormals. In the last case, the method of Stanchev et al. (2015) was also applied for comparison and a very weak (or close to zero) correlation was found. We conclude that the considered `binning approach' reflects rather the local morphology of the N-pdf with no reference to the physical conditions in a considered region. The rough consistency of the derived slopes with the widely adopted Larson's (1981) value α˜1.1 is suggested to support claims that the density-size relation in molecular clouds is indeed an artifact of the observed N-pdf.

  7. Testing nuclear parton distributions with pA collisions at the TeV scale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quiroga-Arias, Paloma; Milhano, Jose Guilherme; Wiedemann, Urs Achim

    2010-01-01

    Global perturbative QCD analyses, based on large data sets from electron-proton and hadron collider experiments, provide tight constraints on the parton distribution function (PDF) in the proton. The extension of these analyses to nuclear parton distribution functions (nPDFs) has attracted much interest in recent years. nPDFs are needed as benchmarks for the characterization of hot QCD matter in nucleus-nucleus collisions, and attract further interest since they may show novel signatures of nonlinear density-dependent QCD evolution. However, it is not known from first principles whether the factorization of long-range phenomena into process-independent parton distribution, which underlies global PDF extractions for the proton, extends to nuclear effects. As a consequence, assessing the reliability of nPDFs for benchmark calculations goes beyond testing the numerical accuracy of their extraction and requires phenomenological tests of the factorization assumption. Here, we argue that a proton-nucleus collision program at the Large Hadron Collider would provide a set of measurements, which allow for unprecedented tests of the factorization assumption, underlying global nPDF fits.

  8. Testing nuclear parton distributions with pA collisions at the LHC

    CERN Document Server

    Quiroga-Arias, Paloma; Wiedemann, Urs Achim

    2010-01-01

    Global perturbative QCD analyses, based on large data sets from electron-proton and hadron collider experiments, provide tight constraints on the parton distribution function (PDF) in the proton. The extension of these analyses to nuclear parton distributions (nPDF) has attracted much interest in recent years. nPDFs are needed as benchmarks for the characterization of hot QCD matter in nucleus-nucleus collisions, and attract further interest since they may show novel signatures of non-linear density-dependent QCD evolution. However, it is not known from first principles whether the factorization of long-range phenomena into process-independent parton distribution, which underlies global PDF extractions for the proton, extends to nuclear effects. As a consequence, assessing the reliability of nPDFs for benchmark calculations goes beyond testing the numerical accuracy of their extraction and requires phenomenological tests of the factorization assumption. Here we argue that a proton-nucleus collision program at...

  9. Testing collinear factorization and nuclear parton distributions with pA collisions at the LHC

    CERN Document Server

    Quiroga-Arias, Paloma; Wiedemann, Urs Achim

    2011-01-01

    Global perturbative QCD analyses, based on large data sets from electron-proton and hadron collider experiments, provide tight constraints on the parton distribution function (PDF) in the proton. The extension of these analyses to nuclear parton distributions (nPDF) has attracted much interest in recent years. nPDFs are needed as benchmarks for the characterization of hot QCD matter in nucleus-nucleus collisions, and attract further interest since they may show novel signatures of non- linear density-dependent QCD evolution. However, it is not known from first principles whether the factorization of long-range phenomena into process-independent parton distribution, which underlies global PDF extractions for the proton, extends to nuclear effects. As a consequence, assessing the reliability of nPDFs for benchmark calculations goes beyond testing the numerical accuracy of their extraction and requires phenomenological tests of the factorization assumption. Here we argue that a proton-nucleus collision program a...

  10. Agricultural Water Use under Global Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, T.; Ringler, C.; Rosegrant, M. W.

    2008-12-01

    Irrigation is by far the single largest user of water in the world and is projected to remain so in the foreseeable future. Globally, irrigated agricultural land comprises less than twenty percent of total cropland but produces about forty percent of the world's food. Increasing world population will require more food and this will lead to more irrigation in many areas. As demands increase and water becomes an increasingly scarce resource, agriculture's competition for water with other economic sectors will be intensified. This water picture is expected to become even more complex as climate change will impose substantial impacts on water availability and demand, in particular for agriculture. To better understand future water demand and supply under global change, including changes in demographic, economic and technological dimensions, the water simulation module of IMPACT, a global water and food projection model developed at the International Food Policy Research Institute, is used to analyze future water demand and supply in agricultural and several non-agricultural sectors using downscaled GCM scenarios, based on water availability simulation done with a recently developed semi-distributed global hydrological model. Risk analysis is conducted to identify countries and regions where future water supply reliability for irrigation is low, and food security may be threatened in the presence of climate change. Gridded shadow values of irrigation water are derived for global cropland based on an optimization framework, and they are used to illustrate potential irrigation development by incorporating gridded water availability and existing global map of irrigation areas.

  11. How does ocean ventilation change under global warming?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Gnanadesikan

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Since the upper ocean takes up much of the heat added to the earth system by anthropogenic global warming, one would expect that global warming would lead to an increase in stratification and a decrease in the ventilation of the ocean interior. However, multiple simulations in global coupled climate models using an ideal age tracer which is set to zero in the mixed layer and ages at 1 yr/yr outside this layer show that the intermediate depths in the low latitudes, Northwest Atlantic, and parts of the Arctic Ocean become younger under global warming. This paper reconciles these apparently contradictory trends, showing that the decreases result from changes in the relative contributions of old deep waters and younger surface waters. Implications for the tropical oxygen minimum zones, which play a critical role in global biogeochemical cycling are considered in detail.

  12. Testing factorization in pA collisions at the LHC

    CERN Document Server

    Quiroga-Arias, Paloma; Wiedemann, Urs Achim

    2011-01-01

    Global perturbative QCD analyses, based on large data sets from e-p and hadron collider experiments, provide tight constraints on the parton distribution function (PDF) in the proton. The extension of these analyses to nuclear parton distributions (nPDF) has attracted much interest in recent years. nPDFs are needed as benchmarks for the characterization of hot QCD matter in nucleus-nucleus collisions, and attract further interest since they may show novel signatures of non-linear density-dependent QCD evolution. However, it is not known from first principles whether the factorization of long-range phenomena into process-independent parton distribution, which underlies global PDF extractions for the proton, extends to nuclear effects. As a consequence, assessing the reliability of nPDFs for benchmark calculations goes beyond testing the numerical accuracy of their extraction and requires phenomenological tests of the factorization assumption. Here we argue that a proton-nucleus collision programme at the LHC, ...

  13. Projection of Heat Waves over China under Different Global Warming Targets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Xiaojun; Luo, Yong; Huang, Jianbin; Zhao, Zongci

    2015-04-01

    Global warming targets, which are determined in terms of global mean temperature increases relative to pre-industrial temperature levels, have been one of the heated issues recently. And the climate change (especially climate extremes) and its impacts under different targets have been paid extensive concerns. In this study, evaluation and projection of heat waves in China were carried out by five CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) with a 0.5°×0.5° horizontal resolution which were derived from EU WATCH project. A new daily observed gridded dataset CN05.1 (0.5°×0.5°) was also used to evaluate the GCMs. And four indices (heat waves frequency, longest heat waves duration, heat waves days and high temperature days) were adopted to analyze the heat waves. Compared with the observations, the five GCMs and its Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) have a remarkable capacity of reproducing the spatial and temporal characteristic of heat waves. The time correlation coefficients between MME and the observation results can all reach 0.05 significant levels. Based on the projection data of five GCMs, both the median year of crossing 1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°, 3°C, 3.5°C, 4°C, 4.5°C and 5°C global warming targets and the corresponding climate change over China were analyzed under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. The results show that when the global mean surface air temperature rise to different targets with respect to the pre-industrial times (1861-1880), the frequency and intensity of heat waves will increase dramatically. To take the high emission scenario RCP8.5 as an example, under the RCP8.5 scenario, the warming rate over China is stronger than that over the globe, the temperature rise(median year) over China projected by MME are 1.77°C(2025), 2.63°C(2039), 3.39°C(2050), 3.97°C(2060), 4.82°C(2070), 5.47°C(2079) and 6.2°C(2089) under 1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C, 3.5°C, 4°C and 4.5°C global warming targets, respectively. With the increase of the global

  14. Drought and Carbon Cycling of Grassland Ecosystems under Global Change: A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tianjie Lei

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, the increased intensity and duration of droughts have dramatically altered the structure and function of grassland ecosystems, which have been forced to adapt to this change in climate. Combinations of global change drivers such as elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration, warming, nitrogen (N deposition, grazing, and land-use change have influenced the impact that droughts have on grassland C cycling. This influence, to some extent, can modify the relationship between droughts and grassland carbon (C cycling in the multi-factor world. Unfortunately, prior reviews have been primarily anecdotal from the 1930s to the 2010s. We investigated the current state of the study on the interactive impacts of multiple factors under drought scenarios in grassland C cycling and provided scientific advice for dealing with droughts and managing grassland C cycling in a multi-factor world. Currently, adequate information is not available on the interaction between droughts and global change drivers, which would advance our understanding of grassland C cycling responses. It was determined that future experiments and models should specifically test how droughts regulate grassland C cycling under global changes. Previous multi-factor experiments of current and future global change conditions have studied various drought scenarios poorly, including changes in precipitation frequency and amplitude, timing, and interactions with other global change drivers. Multi-factor experiments have contributed to quantifying these potential changes and have provided important information on how water affects ecosystem processes under global change. There is an urgent need to establish a systematic framework that can assess ecosystem dynamic responses to droughts under current and future global change and human activity, with a focus on the combined effects of droughts, global change drivers, and the corresponding hierarchical responses of an ecosystem.

  15. The global mean energy balance under cloud-free conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wild, Martin; Hakuba, Maria; Folini, Dois; Ott, Patricia; Long, Charles

    2017-04-01

    A long standing problem of climate models is their overestimation of surface solar radiation not only under all-sky, but also under clear-sky conditions (Wild et al. 1995, Wild et al. 2006). This overestimation reduced over time in consecutive model generations due to the simulation of stronger atmospheric absorption. Here we analyze the clear sky fluxes of the latest climate model generation from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) against an expanded and updated set of direct observations from the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN). Clear sky climatologies from these sites have been composed based on the Long and Ackermann (2000) clear sky detection algorithm (Hakuba et al. 2017), and sampling issues when comparing with model simulated clear sky fluxes have been analyzed in Ott (2017). Overall, the overestimation of clear sky insolation in the CMIP5 models is now merely 1-2 Wm-2 in the multimodel mean, compared to 4 Wm-2 in CMIP3 and 6 Wm-2 in AMIPII (Wild et al. 2006). Still a considerable spread in the individual model biases is apparent, ranging from -2 Wm-2 to 10 Wm-2 when averaged over 53 globally distributed BSRN sites. This bias structure is used to infer best estimates for present day global mean clear sky insolation, following an approach developped in Wild et al. (2013, 2015, Clim. Dyn.) for all sky fluxes. Thereby the flux biases in the various models are linearly related to their respective global means. A best estimate can then be inferred from the linear regression at the intersect where the bias against the surface observations becomes zero. This way we obtain a best estimate of 247 Wm-2 for the global mean insolation at the Earth surface under cloud free conditions, and a global mean absorbed solar radiation of 214 Wm-2 in the cloud-free atmosphere, assuming a global mean surface albedo of 13.5%. Combined with a best estimate for the net influx of solar radiation at the Top of Atmosphere under cloud free conditions

  16. Reduced interdecadal variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation under global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Jun; Liu, Zhengyu; Zhang, Shaoqing; Liu, Wei; Dong, Lina; Liu, Peng; Li, Hongli

    2016-03-22

    Interdecadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC-IV) plays an important role in climate variation and has significant societal impacts. Past climate reconstruction indicates that AMOC-IV has likely undergone significant changes. Despite some previous studies, responses of AMOC-IV to global warming remain unclear, in particular regarding its amplitude and time scale. In this study, we analyze the responses of AMOC-IV under various scenarios of future global warming in multiple models and find that AMOC-IV becomes weaker and shorter with enhanced global warming. From the present climate condition to the strongest future warming scenario, on average, the major period of AMOC-IV is shortened from ∼50 y to ∼20 y, and the amplitude is reduced by ∼60%. These reductions in period and amplitude of AMOC-IV are suggested to be associated with increased oceanic stratification under global warming and, in turn, the speedup of oceanic baroclinic Rossby waves.

  17. Reduced interdecadal variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Jun; Liu, Zhengyu; Zhang, Shaoqing; Liu, Wei; Dong, Lina; Liu, Peng; Li, Hongli

    2016-01-01

    Interdecadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC-IV) plays an important role in climate variation and has significant societal impacts. Past climate reconstruction indicates that AMOC-IV has likely undergone significant changes. Despite some previous studies, responses of AMOC-IV to global warming remain unclear, in particular regarding its amplitude and time scale. In this study, we analyze the responses of AMOC-IV under various scenarios of future global warming in multiple models and find that AMOC-IV becomes weaker and shorter with enhanced global warming. From the present climate condition to the strongest future warming scenario, on average, the major period of AMOC-IV is shortened from ∼50 y to ∼20 y, and the amplitude is reduced by ∼60%. These reductions in period and amplitude of AMOC-IV are suggested to be associated with increased oceanic stratification under global warming and, in turn, the speedup of oceanic baroclinic Rossby waves. PMID:26951654

  18. Global hotspots of river erosion under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plink-Bjorklund, P.; Reichler, T.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme precipitation plays a significant role for river hydrology, flood hazards and landscape response. For example, the September 2013 rainstorm in the Colorado Front Range evacuated the equivalent of hundreds to thousands of years of hillslope weathering products. Although promoted by steep topography, the Colorado event is clearly linked to rainfall intensity, since most of the 1100 debris flows occurred within the highest rainfall contour. Additional evidence for a strong link between extreme precipitation and river erosion comes from the sedimentary record, and especially from that of past greenhouse climates. The existence of such a link suggests that information about global rainfall patterns can be used to define regions of increased erosion potential. However, the question arises what rainfall criteria to use and how well the method works. A related question is how ongoing climate change and the corresponding shifts in rainfall might impact the results. Here, we use atmospheric reanalysis and output from a climate model to identify regions that are particularly susceptible to landscape change in response to extreme precipitation. In order to define the regions, we combine several hydroclimatological and geomorphological criteria into a single index of erosion potential. We show that for current climate, our criteria applied to atmospheric reanalysis or to climate model data successfully localize known areas of increased erosion potential, such as the Colorado region. We then apply our criteria to climate model data for future climate to document how the location, extent, and intensity of erosion hotspots are likely to change under global warming.

  19. Estimated migration rates under scenarios of global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jay R. Malcolm; Adam Markham; Ronald P. Neilson; Michael. Oaraci

    2002-01-01

    Greefihouse-induced warming and resulting shifts in climatic zones may exceed the migration capabilities of some species. We used fourteen combinations of General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Global Vegetation Models (GVMs) to investigate possible migration rates required under CO2 doubled climatic forcing.

  20. Global Changes in Drought Conditions Under Different Levels of Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naumann, G.; Alfieri, L.; Wyser, K.; Mentaschi, L.; Betts, R. A.; Carrao, H.; Spinoni, J.; Vogt, J.; Feyen, L.

    2018-04-01

    Higher evaporative demands and more frequent and persistent dry spells associated with rising temperatures suggest that drought conditions could worsen in many regions of the world. In this study, we assess how drought conditions may develop across the globe for 1.5, 2, and 3°C warming compared to preindustrial temperatures. Results show that two thirds of global population will experience a progressive increase in drought conditions with warming. For drying areas, drought durations are projected to rise at rapidly increasing rates with warming, averaged globally from 2.0 month/°C below 1.5°C to 4.2 month/°C when approaching 3°C. Drought magnitudes could double for 30% of global landmass under stringent mitigation. If contemporary warming rates continue, water supply-demand deficits could become fivefold in size for most of Africa, Australia, southern Europe, southern and central states of the United States, Central America, the Caribbean, north-west China, and parts of Southern America. In approximately 20% of the global land surface, drought magnitude will halve with warming of 1.5°C and higher levels, mainly most land areas north of latitude 55°N, but also parts of South America and Eastern and South-eastern Asia. A progressive and significant increase in frequency of droughts is projected with warming in the Mediterranean basin, most of Africa, West and Southern Asia, Central America, and Oceania, where droughts are projected to happen 5 to 10 times more frequent even under ambitious mitigation targets and current 100-year events could occur every two to five years under 3°C of warming.

  1. Creative Industries: Development Processes Under Contemporary Conditions of Globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valerija Kontrimienė

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the processes of developing creative industries under conditions of a growth in the worldwide economy and globalization, discloses the role of the sector of creative industries and shows its place in the system of the modern global economy. The paper presents a comparative analysis of theories and theoretical approaches intended for the sector of creative industries and its development as well as defines regularities and specificities characteristic of the development of creative industries. Particular attention is shifted on the growth and development of creative industries considering the current challenges of globalization and on the most important specificities of the developing sector in the context of the challenges of economic globalization. The paper examines the trends reflecting the place of the sector of creative industries in the economy of the modern world, including the tendencies indicating changes in the export of the products created in this sector. The article considers the issues of developing creative industries and reveals priorities of future research.

  2. THE INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS’ BEHAVIOUR UNDER THE IMPACT OF THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    PIRTEA MARILEN

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available On the subject of financial globalization a lot of literature has been written, annalyzing all sorts of effects ithad. Still, the changes induced by globalization at the level of the financial markets are not always clear. The veritableflooding of capitals, constantly moving, created a continuous game of investment opportunities, of arbitrationpossibilities and funding sources, made institutional investors adopt various attitudes, the role of institutional investorsin the activation of capital markets being sustained by the financial globalization and the extension of multinationalfinancial groups, on one side, and by the increased performance of the share and bond markets, on the other side.By the present paper, we propose to underline the behaviour of the main institutional investors (mutual funds,pension funds and hedge funds under the impact of the current global financial crisis, the modifications whichintervened in asset assignment and investment relocation, showing that the instability generated in the global financialsystem had immediate effects on all the portfolios of institutional investors, regardless of their classificationcategory.Under conditions of capital flow increase, adjusted by the global financial crisis, the presented analysis andempirical proofs show a tendency of institutional investors’ asset reallocation on developed markets and thewithdrawal from the emergent ones.

  3. Vulnerability of Hidropower Generation in Amazon's Tributaries Under Global Change Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Von Randow, R.; Siqueira, J. L., Jr.; Rodriguez, D. A.; Tomasella, J.; Floriano, L. E.

    2014-12-01

    The Brazilian energy sector is under continued expansion. The majority of energy power generation in the country is done through hydropower, which represents around 88% of the energy originated from renewable sources in the country. Still, only 10% of the high potential for production of the Amazon basin is currently availed, and this raises attention for the implantation of new hydropower plants in the region. When a hydropower plant is considered to be built, the natural characteristics of the region are taken into account, considering that the rainfall regime follows certain stationarity. However, under the possibility of global change, the expected capacity of the plants may be compromised. The objective of this study is to evaluate if the current hydropower plants of some Amazon River tributaries can maintain their functionality under global environmental change conditions. For that, based on the discharge data and hydropower information available by Brazilian National Agency of Water and Energy we will infer the energy potential of these hydropower dams for the historic period that will be compared with the energy potential for future discharge under global environmental change conditions. The future discharge will be generated by the Distributed Hydrological Model developed at the Brazilian National Institute for Space Research (MHD-INPE), driven by different climate change scenarios projected by regional and global atmospheric models, associated with land use scenarios projected by a dynamic land use model (LUCC-ME/INPE). MHD-INPE will be calibrated through observed discharges for 1970-1990 using current land use conditions, and will generate discharges for the period of 2000 to 2050. In addition, special attention will be given to the presence of secondary forest growth in the land use scenarios in order to identify the importance of considering this use in the modelling exercise, since that use is not usually considered in hydrological modelling studies.

  4. Enzymology under global change: organic nitrogen turnover in alpine and sub-Arctic soils

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weedon, J.T.; Aerts, R.; Kowalchuk, G.A.; van Bodegom, P.M.

    2011-01-01

    Understanding global change impacts on the globally important carbon storage in alpine, Arctic and sub-Arctic soils requires knowledge of the mechanisms underlying the balance between plant primary productivity and decomposition. Given that nitrogen availability limits both processes, understanding

  5. Enzymology under global change: organic nitrogen turnover in alpine and sub-Arctic soils.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weedon, J.T.; Aerts, R.; Kowalchuk, G.A.; van Bodegom, P.M.

    2011-01-01

    Understanding global change impacts on the globally important carbon storage in alpine, Arctic and sub-Arctic soils requires knowledge of the mechanisms underlying the balance between plant primary productivity and decomposition. Given that nitrogen availability limits both processes, understanding

  6. Environmental and radiological remediation under Canada's global partnership program 2004-11 - 59185

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Washer, Michael J.

    2012-01-01

    Following the '911' attack on the USA in 2001 the international community under Canada's G8 leadership established a $20 billion Global Partnership initiative in 2002 to collaboratively address threats to global security posed by the proliferation and potential terrorist use of Weapons and Materials of Mass Destruction (WMMD) and related materials and knowledge. This major international initiative addressed four priority areas: (1) Chemical Weapon Destruction (2) Nuclear powered submarine eliminations (3) Nuclear and radiological security; and (4) Employment for former weapon scientists. Additionally the initiative has addressed Biological Non- Proliferation. Canada's execution of all these program areas has resulted in substantial environmental benefits aside from the eradication and securing of WMMD. This paper reviews the environmental and radiological remediation achievements of the four primary Global Partnership program areas addressed under Canadian funding 2004 through 2011. (author)

  7. Prediction of Typhoon Wind Speeds under Global Warming Conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choun, Young Sun; Kim, Min Kyu; Kang, Ju Whan; Kim, Yang Seon

    2016-01-01

    The continuous increase of SST by global warming conditions in the western North Pacific Ocean results in an increased occurrence of supertyphoons in East Asia and the Korean Peninsula. Recent numerical experiments have found that the central pressures of two historical typhoons, Maemi (2003) and Rusa (2002), which recorded the highest storm surges along the coasts of the Korean Peninsula, dropped about 19 and 17 hPa, respectively, when considering the future SST (a warming of 3.9 .deg. C for 100 years) over the East China Sea. The maximum wind speeds increase under global warming conditions. The probability of occurrence of super-typhoons increases in the future. The estimated return period for supertyphoons affecting the Younggwang site is about 1,000,000 years.

  8. Prediction of Typhoon Wind Speeds under Global Warming Conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choun, Young Sun; Kim, Min Kyu [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kang, Ju Whan; Kim, Yang Seon [Mokpo National University, Muan (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    The continuous increase of SST by global warming conditions in the western North Pacific Ocean results in an increased occurrence of supertyphoons in East Asia and the Korean Peninsula. Recent numerical experiments have found that the central pressures of two historical typhoons, Maemi (2003) and Rusa (2002), which recorded the highest storm surges along the coasts of the Korean Peninsula, dropped about 19 and 17 hPa, respectively, when considering the future SST (a warming of 3.9 .deg. C for 100 years) over the East China Sea. The maximum wind speeds increase under global warming conditions. The probability of occurrence of super-typhoons increases in the future. The estimated return period for supertyphoons affecting the Younggwang site is about 1,000,000 years.

  9. Measurements of vector boson production in lead–lead and proton–lead collisions with the ATLAS detector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grabowska-Bold, Iwona

    2014-01-01

    Photons and weak bosons do not interact strongly and, thus, their production yields provide direct tests of scaling with a number of binary nucleon–nucleon collisions in the heavy-ion environment. In addition, they should be sensitive to the nuclear modification of parton distribution functions (nPDF). Proton-lead collisions also provide an excellent opportunity to test nPDF in a less dense environment than lead–lead via looking at forward–backward production of weak bosons. The ATLAS detector has proven to be an excellent apparatus in measurements involving photons, electrons and muons, the latter being products of weak boson decays, in the high occupancy environment produced in heavy-ion collisions. The experiment has recorded 30nb −1 of proton–lead data and 140μb −1 of lead–lead data, both of which have similar integrated partonic luminosities. We present the prompt photon, Z and W boson yields as a function of centrality, and also differentially in transverse momentum and rapidity, in lead–lead and proton–lead collisions from the ATLAS experiment. For W ± bosons, a lepton charge asymmetry has also been studied, which may also shed light on nPDF

  10. The European climate under a 2 °C global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vautard, Robert; Stegehuis, Annemiek; Gobiet, Andreas; Mendlik, Thomas; Sobolowski, Stefan; Kjellström, Erik; Nikulin, Grigory; Watkiss, Paul; Landgren, Oskar; Teichmann, Claas; Jacob, Daniela

    2014-01-01

    A global warming of 2 °C relative to pre-industrial climate has been considered as a threshold which society should endeavor to remain below, in order to limit the dangerous effects of anthropogenic climate change. The possible changes in regional climate under this target level of global warming have so far not been investigated in detail. Using an ensemble of 15 regional climate simulations downscaling six transient global climate simulations, we identify the respective time periods corresponding to 2 °C global warming, describe the range of projected changes for the European climate for this level of global warming, and investigate the uncertainty across the multi-model ensemble. Robust changes in mean and extreme temperature, precipitation, winds and surface energy budgets are found based on the ensemble of simulations. The results indicate that most of Europe will experience higher warming than the global average. They also reveal strong distributional patterns across Europe, which will be important in subsequent impact assessments and adaptation responses in different countries and regions. For instance, a North–South (West–East) warming gradient is found for summer (winter) along with a general increase in heavy precipitation and summer extreme temperatures. Tying the ensemble analysis to time periods with a prescribed global temperature change rather than fixed time periods allows for the identification of more robust regional patterns of temperature changes due to removal of some of the uncertainty related to the global models’ climate sensitivity. (paper)

  11. Future changes in global warming potentials under representative concentration pathways

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reisinger, Andy [New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre, PO Box 10002, Wellington 6143 (New Zealand); Meinshausen, Malte [Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (Germany); Manning, Martin, E-mail: andy.reisinger@nzagrc.org.nz [Climate Change Research Institute, Victoria University of Wellington (New Zealand)

    2011-04-15

    Global warming potentials (GWPs) are the metrics currently used to compare emissions of different greenhouse gases under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Future changes in greenhouse gas concentrations will alter GWPs because the radiative efficiencies of marginal changes in CO{sub 2}, CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O depend on their background concentrations, the removal of CO{sub 2} is influenced by climate-carbon cycle feedbacks, and atmospheric residence times of CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O also depend on ambient temperature and other environmental changes. We calculated the currently foreseeable future changes in the absolute GWP of CO{sub 2}, which acts as the denominator for the calculation of all GWPs, and specifically the GWPs of CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O, along four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) up to the year 2100. We find that the absolute GWP of CO{sub 2} decreases under all RCPs, although for longer time horizons this decrease is smaller than for short time horizons due to increased climate-carbon cycle feedbacks. The 100-year GWP of CH{sub 4} would increase up to 20% under the lowest RCP by 2100 but would decrease by up to 10% by mid-century under the highest RCP. The 100-year GWP of N{sub 2}O would increase by more than 30% by 2100 under the highest RCP but would vary by less than 10% under other scenarios. These changes are not negligible but are mostly smaller than the changes that would result from choosing a different time horizon for GWPs, or from choosing altogether different metrics for comparing greenhouse gas emissions, such as global temperature change potentials.

  12. Oligarchy versus Democracy and Regulation versus Deregulation under the Globalization Effect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dumitru-Alexandru BODISLAV

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available On capitalism that is created under the pressure of globalization there are created many economic systems that derived into a new model: the asymmetric model created from propriety rights’ perspective and the influence of interest groups, an asymmetric model that is called “oligarchy”(1. For a better understanding of oligarchy we consider an oligarchic society, where the political power is in the hands of the producers of goods, that tend to protect their propriety rights, but this way they create entry barriers, destroying the propriety rights of future potential producers. Capitalism was and is stressed by the (deregulation phenomena created by the competition which is shaped through globalization. With ease we can go from (deregulating to oligarchic pressure, which from the globalization’s perspective can give birth to the lagging or decoupling in the global economic system. This paper researches these two cases and inserts them into the global framework to result the evolution of society’s members’ welfare.

  13. A possible constraint on regional precipitation intensity changes under global warming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gutowski, William J.; Kozak, K. A.; Arritt, R. W.

    2007-01-01

    Changes in daily precipitation versus intensity under a global warming scenario in two regional climate simulations of the United States show a well-recognized feature of more intense precipitation. More important, by resolving the precipitation intensity spectrum, the changes show a relatively...

  14. Expansion of plants with Crassulacean Acid Metabolism under global environment change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, K.; D'Odorico, P.; Collins, S. L.; Carr, D.

    2016-12-01

    The abundance of plants with Crassulacean Acid Metabolism (CAM) has increased in many drylands worldwide. This is hypothesized to occur because CAM plants store water, take up CO2 at night, exhibit photosynthetic plasticity, and have high water use efficiency. The increased dominance of CAM plants, however, also depends on their competitive relationship with other functional groups, an aspect of CAM plant sensitivity to global environmental change that has remained largely understudied. Here, we investigated the response of CAM plants and their competitive relationships with C3 and C4 plants under global environmental change. We focused on two pairs of CAM and non-CAM species, namely Cylindropuntia imbricata (a constitutive CAM species) and Bouteloua eriopoda (C4 grass), which co-occur in desert grasslands in northern Mexico, and invasive Mesembryanthemum crystallinum (a facultative CAM species) and Bromus mollis (a C3 invasive grass), which coexist in California's coastal grasslands. A set of growth chamber experiments under altered CO2 and water conditions show that C. imbricata outcompeted B. eriopoda under drought conditions, while in well-watered conditions B. eriopoda was a stronger competitor for soil water than C. imbricata. Under drought conditions a more positive response to CO2 enrichment by C. imbricata indirectly disfavored B. eriopoda, which suggests that interspecific competition can outweigh the favorable direct effect of CO2 enrichment on plant growth. A set of greenhouse experiments under water, N, and soil salinity manipulations showed that drought, N deposition, and/or increased soil salinity served as important drivers for success of M. crystallinum invasion, while B. mollis exerted strong competitive effects on M. crystallinum for light and soil nutrients in well-watered conditions. M. crystallinum switched from C3 photosynthesis to CAM photosynthesis as an adaptive strategy in response to moderate intensity of competition from B. mollis, in

  15. Global crop yield response to extreme heat stress under multiple climate change futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deryng, D.; Conway, D.; Ramankutty, N.; Price, J.; Warren, R.

    2014-12-01

    Extreme heat stress during the crop reproductive period can be critical for crop productivity. Projected changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events are expected to negatively impact crop yields and global food production. This study applies the global crop model PEGASUS to quantify, for the first time at the global scale, impacts of extreme heat stress on maize, spring wheat and soybean yields resulting from 72 climate change scenarios for the 21st century. Our results project maize to face progressively worse impacts under a range of RCPs but spring wheat and soybean to improve globally through to the 2080s due to CO2 fertilization effects, even though parts of the tropic and sub-tropic regions could face substantial yield declines. We find extreme heat stress at anthesis (HSA) by the 2080s (relative to the 1980s) under RCP 8.5, taking into account CO2 fertilization effects, could double global losses of maize yield (dY = -12.8 ± 6.7% versus -7.0 ± 5.3% without HSA), reduce projected gains in spring wheat yield by half (dY = 34.3 ± 13.5% versus 72.0 ± 10.9% without HSA) and in soybean yield by a quarter (dY = 15.3 ± 26.5% versus 20.4 ± 22.1% without HSA). The range reflects uncertainty due to differences between climate model scenarios; soybean exhibits both positive and negative impacts, maize is generally negative and spring wheat generally positive. Furthermore, when assuming CO2 fertilization effects to be negligible, we observe drastic climate mitigation policy as in RCP 2.6 could avoid more than 80% of the global average yield losses otherwise expected by the 2080s under RCP 8.5. We show large disparities in climate impacts across regions and find extreme heat stress adversely affects major producing regions and lower income countries.

  16. Global crop yield response to extreme heat stress under multiple climate change futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deryng, Delphine; Warren, Rachel; Conway, Declan; Ramankutty, Navin; Price, Jeff

    2014-01-01

    Extreme heat stress during the crop reproductive period can be critical for crop productivity. Projected changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events are expected to negatively impact crop yields and global food production. This study applies the global crop model PEGASUS to quantify, for the first time at the global scale, impacts of extreme heat stress on maize, spring wheat and soybean yields resulting from 72 climate change scenarios for the 21st century. Our results project maize to face progressively worse impacts under a range of RCPs but spring wheat and soybean to improve globally through to the 2080s due to CO 2 fertilization effects, even though parts of the tropic and sub-tropic regions could face substantial yield declines. We find extreme heat stress at anthesis (HSA) by the 2080s (relative to the 1980s) under RCP 8.5, taking into account CO 2 fertilization effects, could double global losses of maize yield (ΔY = −12.8 ± 6.7% versus − 7.0 ± 5.3% without HSA), reduce projected gains in spring wheat yield by half (ΔY = 34.3 ± 13.5% versus 72.0 ± 10.9% without HSA) and in soybean yield by a quarter (ΔY = 15.3 ± 26.5% versus 20.4 ± 22.1% without HSA). The range reflects uncertainty due to differences between climate model scenarios; soybean exhibits both positive and negative impacts, maize is generally negative and spring wheat generally positive. Furthermore, when assuming CO 2 fertilization effects to be negligible, we observe drastic climate mitigation policy as in RCP 2.6 could avoid more than 80% of the global average yield losses otherwise expected by the 2080s under RCP 8.5. We show large disparities in climate impacts across regions and find extreme heat stress adversely affects major producing regions and lower income countries. (paper)

  17. Future ecological studies of Brazilian headwater streams under global-changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcos Callisto

    Full Text Available This paper results from discussions triggered during the "Stream Ecology Symposium" that took place at the XIII Congress of the Brazilian Society of Limnology in September of 2011 in Natal, Brazil. Based on our experiences, we have raised several questions regarding ecological studies of headwater streams facing threats under global-changes and proposed numerous subjects to be addressed in future studies in Brazil. These studies deal with the necessity of knowing species biology and the elaboration of models to assess changes (which implies the availability of time-series or large-scale data sets; the ecology of riparian zones and the interchange of materials and energy across the land-water boundaries; forest conversions and standardized sampling strategies and data treatment to assess global change.

  18. Neural Global Pattern Similarity Underlies True and False Memories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Zhifang; Zhu, Bi; Zhuang, Liping; Lu, Zhonglin; Chen, Chuansheng; Xue, Gui

    2016-06-22

    The neural processes giving rise to human memory strength signals remain poorly understood. Inspired by formal computational models that posit a central role of global matching in memory strength, we tested a novel hypothesis that the strengths of both true and false memories arise from the global similarity of an item's neural activation pattern during retrieval to that of all the studied items during encoding (i.e., the encoding-retrieval neural global pattern similarity [ER-nGPS]). We revealed multiple ER-nGPS signals that carried distinct information and contributed differentially to true and false memories: Whereas the ER-nGPS in the parietal regions reflected semantic similarity and was scaled with the recognition strengths of both true and false memories, ER-nGPS in the visual cortex contributed solely to true memory. Moreover, ER-nGPS differences between the parietal and visual cortices were correlated with frontal monitoring processes. By combining computational and neuroimaging approaches, our results advance a mechanistic understanding of memory strength in recognition. What neural processes give rise to memory strength signals, and lead to our conscious feelings of familiarity? Using fMRI, we found that the memory strength of a given item depends not only on how it was encoded during learning, but also on the similarity of its neural representation with other studied items. The global neural matching signal, mainly in the parietal lobule, could account for the memory strengths of both studied and unstudied items. Interestingly, a different global matching signal, originated from the visual cortex, could distinguish true from false memories. The findings reveal multiple neural mechanisms underlying the memory strengths of events registered in the brain. Copyright © 2016 the authors 0270-6474/16/366792-11$15.00/0.

  19. Global Water Scarcity Assessment under Post-SRES Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanasaki, N.; Fujimori, S.

    2011-12-01

    A large number of future projections contributed to the fourth Assessment Report of IPCC were based on Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). Processes toward the fifth Assessment Report are under way, and post-SRES scenarios, called Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) are being prepared. One of the key challenges of SSP is provision of detailed socio-economic scenarios compared to SRES for impact, adaptation and vulnerability studies. In this study, a comprehensive global water scarcity assessment was conducted, using a state of the art global water resources model H08 (Hanasaki et al., 2008a, 2008b, 2010). We used a prototype of SSP developed by National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan. Two sets of socio economic scenarios and two sets of climate scenarios were prepared to run H08 for the period 2001-2100. Socio-economic scenarios include Business As Usual and High Mitigation Capacity. Climate scenarios include Reference and Mitigation which stabilizes green house gas concentration at a certain level. We analyzed the simulation results of four combinations, particularly focusing on the sensitivity of socio-economic scenarios to major water resources indices.

  20. Assessing carbon dioxide removal through global and regional ocean alkalinization under high and low emission pathways

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenton, Andrew; Matear, Richard J.; Keller, David P.; Scott, Vivian; Vaughan, Naomi E.

    2018-04-01

    Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels continue to rise, increasing the risk of severe impacts on the Earth system, and on the ecosystem services that it provides. Artificial ocean alkalinization (AOA) is capable of reducing atmospheric CO2 concentrations and surface warming and addressing ocean acidification. Here, we simulate global and regional responses to alkalinity (ALK) addition (0.25 PmolALK yr-1) over the period 2020-2100 using the CSIRO-Mk3L-COAL Earth System Model, under high (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5; RCP8.5) and low (RCP2.6) emissions. While regionally there are large changes in alkalinity associated with locations of AOA, globally we see only a very weak dependence on where and when AOA is applied. On a global scale, while we see that under RCP2.6 the carbon uptake associated with AOA is only ˜ 60 % of the total, under RCP8.5 the relative changes in temperature are larger, as are the changes in pH (140 %) and aragonite saturation state (170 %). The simulations reveal AOA is more effective under lower emissions, therefore the higher the emissions the more AOA is required to achieve the same reduction in global warming and ocean acidification. Finally, our simulated AOA for 2020-2100 in the RCP2.6 scenario is capable of offsetting warming and ameliorating ocean acidification increases at the global scale, but with highly variable regional responses.

  1. Stochastic Delay Population Dynamics under Regime Switching: Global Solutions and Extinction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zheng Wu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with a delay Lotka-Volterra model under regime switching diffusion in random environment. By using generalized Itô formula, Gronwall inequality and Young’s inequality, some sufficient conditions for existence of global positive solutions and stochastically ultimate boundedness are obtained, respectively. Finally, an example is given to illustrate the main results.

  2. Use of local and global limit load solutions for plates with surface cracks under tension

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lei, Y. [British Energy Generation Ltd, Barnett Way, Bamwood, Gloucester GL4 3RS (United Kingdom)], E-mail: yuebao.lei@british-energy.com

    2007-09-15

    Some available experimental results for the ductile failure of plates with surface cracks under tension are reviewed. The response of crack driving force, J, and the ligament strain near the local and global limit loads are investigated by performing elastic-perfectly plastic finite element (FE) analysis of a plate with a semi-elliptical crack under tension. The results show that a ligament may survive until the global collapse load is reached when the average ligament strain at the global collapse load, which depends on the uniaxial strain corresponding to the flow stress of the material and the crack geometry, is less than the true fracture strain of the material obtained from uniaxial tension tests. The FE analysis shows that ligament yielding corresponding to the local limit load has little effect on J and the average ligament strain, whereas approach to global collapse corresponds to a sharp increase in both J and the average ligament strain. The prediction of the FE value of J using the reference stress method shows that the global limit load is more relevant to J-estimation than the local one.

  3. Use of local and global limit load solutions for plates with surface cracks under tension

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lei, Y.

    2007-01-01

    Some available experimental results for the ductile failure of plates with surface cracks under tension are reviewed. The response of crack driving force, J, and the ligament strain near the local and global limit loads are investigated by performing elastic-perfectly plastic finite element (FE) analysis of a plate with a semi-elliptical crack under tension. The results show that a ligament may survive until the global collapse load is reached when the average ligament strain at the global collapse load, which depends on the uniaxial strain corresponding to the flow stress of the material and the crack geometry, is less than the true fracture strain of the material obtained from uniaxial tension tests. The FE analysis shows that ligament yielding corresponding to the local limit load has little effect on J and the average ligament strain, whereas approach to global collapse corresponds to a sharp increase in both J and the average ligament strain. The prediction of the FE value of J using the reference stress method shows that the global limit load is more relevant to J-estimation than the local one

  4. A stochastic global identification framework for aerospace structures operating under varying flight states

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopsaftopoulos, Fotis; Nardari, Raphael; Li, Yu-Hung; Chang, Fu-Kuo

    2018-01-01

    In this work, a novel data-based stochastic "global" identification framework is introduced for aerospace structures operating under varying flight states and uncertainty. In this context, the term "global" refers to the identification of a model that is capable of representing the structure under any admissible flight state based on data recorded from a sample of these states. The proposed framework is based on stochastic time-series models for representing the structural dynamics and aeroelastic response under multiple flight states, with each state characterized by several variables, such as the airspeed, angle of attack, altitude and temperature, forming a flight state vector. The method's cornerstone lies in the new class of Vector-dependent Functionally Pooled (VFP) models which allow the explicit analytical inclusion of the flight state vector into the model parameters and, hence, system dynamics. This is achieved via the use of functional data pooling techniques for optimally treating - as a single entity - the data records corresponding to the various flight states. In this proof-of-concept study the flight state vector is defined by two variables, namely the airspeed and angle of attack of the vehicle. The experimental evaluation and assessment is based on a prototype bio-inspired self-sensing composite wing that is subjected to a series of wind tunnel experiments under multiple flight states. Distributed micro-sensors in the form of stretchable sensor networks are embedded in the composite layup of the wing in order to provide the sensing capabilities. Experimental data collected from piezoelectric sensors are employed for the identification of a stochastic global VFP model via appropriate parameter estimation and model structure selection methods. The estimated VFP model parameters constitute two-dimensional functions of the flight state vector defined by the airspeed and angle of attack. The identified model is able to successfully represent the wing

  5. The role stratification on Indian ocean mixing under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Praveen, V.; Valsala, V.; Ravindran, A. M.

    2017-12-01

    The impact of changes in Indian ocean stratification on mixing under global warming is examined. Previous studies on global warming and associated weakening of winds reported to increase the stratification of the world ocean leading to a reduction in mixing, increased acidity, reduced oxygen and there by a reduction in productivity. However this processes is not uniform and are also modulated by changes in wind pattern of the future. Our study evaluate the role of stratification and surface fluxes on mixing focusing northern Indian ocean. A dynamical downscaling study using Regional ocean Modelling system (ROMS) forced with stratification and surface fluxes from selected CMIP5 models are presented. Results from an extensive set of historical and Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (rcp8.5) scenario simulations are used to quantify the distinctive role of stratification on mixing.

  6. Revealing the underlying drivers of disaster risk: a global analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peduzzi, Pascal

    2017-04-01

    Disasters events are perfect examples of compound events. Disaster risk lies at the intersection of several independent components such as hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Understanding the weight of each component requires extensive standardisation. Here, I show how footprints of past disastrous events were generated using GIS modelling techniques and used for extracting population and economic exposures based on distribution models. Using past event losses, it was possible to identify and quantify a wide range of socio-politico-economic drivers associated with human vulnerability. The analysis was applied to about nine thousand individual past disastrous events covering earthquakes, floods and tropical cyclones. Using a multiple regression analysis on these individual events it was possible to quantify each risk component and assess how vulnerability is influenced by various hazard intensities. The results show that hazard intensity, exposure, poverty, governance as well as other underlying factors (e.g. remoteness) can explain the magnitude of past disasters. Analysis was also performed to highlight the role of future trends in population and climate change and how this may impacts exposure to tropical cyclones in the future. GIS models combined with statistical multiple regression analysis provided a powerful methodology to identify, quantify and model disaster risk taking into account its various components. The same methodology can be applied to various types of risk at local to global scale. This method was applied and developed for the Global Risk Analysis of the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR). It was first applied on mortality risk in GAR 2009 and GAR 2011. New models ranging from global assets exposure and global flood hazard models were also recently developed to improve the resolution of the risk analysis and applied through CAPRA software to provide probabilistic economic risk assessments such as Average Annual Losses (AAL

  7. Future aridity under conditions of global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asadi Zarch, Mohammad Amin; Sivakumar, Bellie; Malekinezhad, Hossein; Sharma, Ashish

    2017-11-01

    Global climate change is anticipated to cause some major changes in hydroclimatic conditions around the world. As aridity is a reliable indicator of potential available water, assessment of its changes under future climatic conditions is important for proper management of water. This study employs the UNESCO aridity/humidity index, which is a derivative of precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET), for assessment of aridity. Historical (1901-2005) simulations and future (2006-2100) projections of 22 global climate models (GCMs) from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are studied. The Nested Bias Correction (NBC) approach is used to correct possible biases of precipitation (simulated directly by the GCMs) and PET (estimated by applying FAO56-Penman-Monteith model on simulated parameters of the GCMs). To detect future aridity changes, the areal extents of the aridity zones in the past and future periods as well as through four sub-periods (2006-2025, 2026-2050, 2051-2075, and 2076-2100) of the future are compared. The results indicate that changes in climate will alter the areal extents of aridity zones in the future. In general, from the first sub-period towards the last one, the area covered by hyper-arid, arid, semi-arid, and sub-humid zones will increase (by 7.46%, 7.01%, 5.80%, and 2.78%, respectively), while the area of the humid regions will decrease (by 4.76%), suggesting that there will be less water over the global land area in the future. To understand the cause of these changes, precipitation and PET are also separately assumed to be stationary throughout the four future sub-periods and the resulting aridity changes are then analyzed. The results reveal that the aridity changes are mostly caused by the positive PET trends, even though the slight precipitation increase lessens the magnitude of the changes.

  8. The challenge of market power under globalization

    OpenAIRE

    David Arie Mayer-Foulkes

    2014-01-01

    The legacy of Adam Smith leads to a false confidence on the optimality of laissez faire policies for the global market economy. Instead, the polarized character of current globalization deeply affects both developed and underdeveloped economies. Current globalization is characterized by factor exchange between economies of persistently unequal development. This implies the existence of persistent extraordinary market power in transnational corporations, reflected in their disproportionate par...

  9. Impacts of climate extremes on gross primary production under global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, I N; Torn, M S; Riley, W J; Wehner, M F

    2014-01-01

    The impacts of historical droughts and heat-waves on ecosystems are often considered indicative of future global warming impacts, under the assumption that water stress sets in above a fixed high temperature threshold. Historical and future (RCP8.5) Earth system model (ESM) climate projections were analyzed in this study to illustrate changes in the temperatures for onset of water stress under global warming. The ESMs examined here predict sharp declines in gross primary production (GPP) at warm temperature extremes in historical climates, similar to the observed correlations between GPP and temperature during historical heat-waves and droughts. However, soil moisture increases at the warm end of the temperature range, and the temperature at which soil moisture declines with temperature shifts to a higher temperature. The temperature for onset of water stress thus increases under global warming and is associated with a shift in the temperature for maximum GPP to warmer temperatures. Despite the shift in this local temperature optimum, the impacts of warm extremes on GPP are approximately invariant when extremes are defined relative to the optimal temperature within each climate period. The GPP sensitivity to these relative temperature extremes therefore remains similar between future and present climates, suggesting that the heat- and drought-induced GPP reductions seen recently can be expected to be similar in the future, and may be underestimates of future impacts given model projections of increased frequency and persistence of heat-waves and droughts. The local temperature optimum can be understood as the temperature at which the combination of water stress and light limitations is minimized, and this concept gives insights into how GPP responds to climate extremes in both historical and future climate periods. Both cold (temperature and light-limited) and warm (water-limited) relative temperature extremes become more persistent in future climate projections

  10. Changes in Intense Precipitation Events in West Africa and the central U.S. under Global Warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cook, Kerry H. [Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX (United States); Vizy, Edward [Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX (United States)

    2016-02-08

    The purpose of the proposed project is to improve our understanding of the physical processes and large-scale connectivity of changes in intense precipitation events (high rainfall rates) under global warming in West Africa and the central U.S., including relationships with low-frequency modes of variability. This is in response to the requested subject area #2 “simulation of climate extremes under a changing climate … to better quantify the frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme events under climate change and elucidate the role of low frequency climate variability in modulating extremes.” We will use a regional climate model and emphasize an understanding of the physical processes that lead to an intensification of rainfall. The project objectives are as follows: 1. Understand the processes responsible for simulated changes in warm-season rainfall intensity and frequency over West Africa and the Central U.S. associated with greenhouse gas-induced global warming 2. Understand the relationship between changes in warm-season rainfall intensity and frequency, which generally occur on regional space scales, and the larger-scale global warming signal by considering modifications of low-frequency modes of variability. 3. Relate changes simulated on regional space scales to global-scale theories of how and why atmospheric moisture levels and rainfall should change as climate warms.

  11. Projected global ground-level ozone impacts on vegetation under different emission and climate scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Sicard

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The impact of ground-level ozone (O3 on vegetation is largely under-investigated at the global scale despite large areas worldwide that are exposed to high surface O3 levels. To explore future potential impacts of O3 on vegetation, we compared historical and projected surface O3 concentrations simulated by six global atmospheric chemistry transport models on the basis of three representative concentration pathways emission scenarios (i.e. RCP2.6, 4.5, 8.5. To assess changes in the potential surface O3 threat to vegetation at the global scale, we used the AOT40 metric. Results point out a significant exceedance of AOT40 in comparison with the recommendations of UNECE for the protection of vegetation. In fact, many areas of the Northern Hemisphere show that AOT40-based critical levels will be exceeded by a factor of at least 10 under RCP8.5. Changes in surface O3 by 2100 worldwide range from about +4–5 ppb in the RCP8.5 scenario to reductions of about 2–10 ppb in the most optimistic scenario, RCP2.6. The risk of O3 injury for vegetation, through the potential O3 impact on photosynthetic assimilation, decreased by 61 and 47 % under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5, respectively, and increased by 70 % under RCP8.5. Key biodiversity areas in southern and northern Asia, central Africa and North America were identified as being at risk from high O3 concentrations.

  12. Nitrogen leaching from natural ecosystems under global change: a modelling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braakhekke, Maarten C.; Rebel, Karin T.; Dekker, Stefan C.; Smith, Benjamin; Beusen, Arthur H. W.; Wassen, Martin J.

    2017-12-01

    To study global nitrogen (N) leaching from natural ecosystems under changing N deposition, climate, and atmospheric CO2, we performed a factorial model experiment for the period 1901-2006 with the N-enabled global terrestrial ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS (Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator). In eight global simulations, we used either the true transient time series of N deposition, climate, and atmospheric CO2 as input or kept combinations of these drivers constant at initial values. The results show that N deposition is globally the strongest driver of simulated N leaching, individually causing an increase of 88 % by 1997-2006 relative to pre-industrial conditions. Climate change led globally to a 31 % increase in N leaching, but the size and direction of change varied among global regions: leaching generally increased in regions with high soil organic carbon storage and high initial N status, and decreased in regions with a positive trend in vegetation productivity or decreasing precipitation. Rising atmospheric CO2 generally caused decreased N leaching (33 % globally), with strongest effects in regions with high productivity and N availability. All drivers combined resulted in a rise of N leaching by 73 % with strongest increases in Europe, eastern North America and South-East Asia, where N deposition rates are highest. Decreases in N leaching were predicted for the Amazon and northern India. We further found that N loss by fire regionally is a large term in the N budget, associated with lower N leaching, particularly in semi-arid biomes. Predicted global N leaching from natural lands rose from 13.6 Tg N yr-1 in 1901-1911 to 18.5 Tg N yr-1 in 1997-2006, accounting for reductions of natural land cover. Ecosystem N status (quantified as the reduction of vegetation productivity due to N limitation) shows a similar positive temporal trend but large spatial variability. Interestingly, this variability is more strongly related to vegetation type than N input

  13. Prerequisites for Forming the Institutional Concept of the National Economy Competitiveness under Conditions of Globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yaremenko Oleh L.

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The article attempts to prove that under conditions of globalization there have developed objective and subjective prerequisites for forming the institutional concept of the national economy. The objective prerequisites are the newest information and communication technologies, post-industrial trends and market transformation of civilization intensified by globalization. Under such conditions instability and volatility of the institutional environment both within national economies and at the international level are observed. The aggravation of the global competition between national economies actualizes the role of such institutional factors as political system, property, public administration, economic organization, culture, etc. The subjective prerequisites are related to the fact that the institutional economic theory is currently one of the leading trends in the modern world and Ukrainian economic thought. Interest in it is explained not only by the fact that it overcomes the limitations of a number of prerequisites for the mainstream, but also because it allows considering the modern economic processes in complex

  14. Logistics Concepts at the Industrial Enterprise under Conditions of the Globalization of Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trushkina Nataliia V.

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the article is to assess the dynamics of indicators of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods and services; conduct a comparative analysis of logistics concepts used at industrial enterprises under conditions of the globalization of markets; determine the ways to improve the management of international production and distribution activities of industrial enterprises. The study analyzes the dynamics of volumes of exports–imports of goods and transport services in Ukraine; freight traffic by mode of transport; export, import and transit of goods; foreign direct investment from countries of the world in the Ukrainian economy. Modern information systems and logistics concepts used at industrial enterprises under conditions of the globalization of markets are considered. The ways to improve the management of international production and distribution activities of industrial enterprises are defined and systematized. Prospects for further research in this direction are the development of proposals for information support of providing services for customers of the industrial enterprise.

  15. ECONOMIC NATIONALISM’S VIABILITY UNDER GLOBALIZATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Mihaela ILIESCU

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The path undertaken by the world economy is irreversible - the world economic system is a system based on interdependencies, cooperation and multilateralism but economic openness is not full. Each country, in order to protect their national interest call, in different proportion, depending on the circumstances and of the economic-social and political interests, for different forms of the economic nationalism, forms that have adapted continuously to the demands required for integrating on the foreign markets. The recent global economic crisis intensified the rhetoric and the economic nationalism’s practices but it is not about rebirth, but of renewal, of remodeling the nationalist policies, globalization being a premise of the new economic nationalism. The scope of this paper is to emphasize using empirical data the fact that nationalism and globalization, from an economical point of view, are not antagonistic policies, they coexist and influence each other, both generating contradictory effects, in terms of provided opportunities and risks.

  16. Facial expression recognition under partial occlusion based on fusion of global and local features

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiaohua; Xia, Chen; Hu, Min; Ren, Fuji

    2018-04-01

    Facial expression recognition under partial occlusion is a challenging research. This paper proposes a novel framework for facial expression recognition under occlusion by fusing the global and local features. In global aspect, first, information entropy are employed to locate the occluded region. Second, principal Component Analysis (PCA) method is adopted to reconstruct the occlusion region of image. After that, a replace strategy is applied to reconstruct image by replacing the occluded region with the corresponding region of the best matched image in training set, Pyramid Weber Local Descriptor (PWLD) feature is then extracted. At last, the outputs of SVM are fitted to the probabilities of the target class by using sigmoid function. For the local aspect, an overlapping block-based method is adopted to extract WLD features, and each block is weighted adaptively by information entropy, Chi-square distance and similar block summation methods are then applied to obtain the probabilities which emotion belongs to. Finally, fusion at the decision level is employed for the data fusion of the global and local features based on Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence. Experimental results on the Cohn-Kanade and JAFFE databases demonstrate the effectiveness and fault tolerance of this method.

  17. Democracy under siege: Democratic solidarity between global crisis and cosmopolitan hope

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brunkhorst Hauke

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available For almost half a century (between 1940 and 1990 the democratic and social state has solved the twofold problem of growth and social exclusion through social inclusion within the borders of the national state. This solution since the 1970s came under threat of multiple crises of the environment, secular stagnation, under-consumption, legitimization and constitutionalization. There might be a social solution of present crisis possible through massive redistribution plus decent basic income (on the level of tuition-costs plus green growth. However, after globalization of capital there are no longer national social alternatives available. Therefore, there is no alternative to transnational democratic state-formation. But are there actors relevant, strong and motivated enough to do that?

  18. Enhanced or Weakened Western North Pacific Subtropical High under Global Warming?

    OpenAIRE

    He, Chao; Zhou, Tianjun; Lin, Ailan; Wu, Bo; Gu, Dejun; Li, Chunhui; Zheng, Bin

    2015-01-01

    The Western North Pacific Subtropical High (WNPSH) regulates East Asian climate in summer. Anomalous WNPSH causes floods, droughts and heat waves in China, Japan and Korea. The potential change of the WNPSH under global warming is concerned by Asian people, but whether the WNPSH would be enhanced or weakened remains inconclusive. Based on the multi-model climate change projection from the 5th phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), we show evidences that the WNPSH tends to wea...

  19. Research on optimal investment path of transmission corridor under the global energy Internet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yuehui; Li, Pai; Wang, Qi; Liu, Jichun; Gao, Han

    2018-02-01

    Under the background of the global energy Internet, the investment planning of transmission corridor from XinJiang to Germany is studied in this article, which passes through four countries: Kazakhstan, Russia, Belarus and Poland. Taking the specific situation of different countries into account, including the length of transmission line, unit construction cost, completion time, transmission price, state tariff, inflation rate and so on, this paper constructed a power transmission investment model. Finally, the dynamic programming method is used to simulate the example, and the optimal strategies under different objective functions are obtained.

  20. Transformation of India's transport sector under Global Warming of 2oC and 1.5oC Scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dhar, Subash; Pathak, Minal; Shukla, P.R.

    2018-01-01

    The Paris agreement stresses on concerted efforts to limit global temperature increase to 2°C and make efforts towards achieving 1.5°C temperature stabilization. Countries announced actions under the Nationally Determined Contributions outlining domestic mitigation actions to achieve the global...

  1. Impacts of the Tropical Pacific Cold Tongue Mode on ENSO Diversity Under Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yang; Li, Jianping; Zhang, Wenjun; Chen, Quanliang; Feng, Juan; Zheng, Fei; Wang, Wei; Zhou, Xin

    2017-11-01

    The causes of ENSO diversity, although being of great interest in recent research, do not have a consistent explanation. This study provides a possible mechanism focused on the background change of the tropical Pacific as a response to global warming. The second empirical orthogonal function mode of the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the tropical Pacific, namely the cold tongue mode (CTM), represents the background change of the tropical Pacific under global warming. Using composite analysis with surface observations and subsurface ocean assimilation data sets, we find ENSO spatial structure diversity is closely associated with the CTM. A positive CTM tends to cool the SST in the eastern equatorial Pacific and warm the SST outside, as well as widen (narrow) zonal and meridional scales for El Niño (La Niña), and vice versa. Particularly in the positive CTM phase, the air-sea action center of El Niño moves west, resembling the spatial pattern of CP-El Niño. This westward shift of center is related to the weakened Bjerknes feedback (BF) intensity by the CTM. By suppressing the SSTA growth of El Niño in the eastern equatorial Pacific, the CTM contributes to more frequent occurrence of CP-El Niño under global warming.

  2. Tracking the global maximum power point of PV arrays under partial shading conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fennich, Meryem

    This thesis presents the theoretical and simulation studies of the global maximum power point tracking (MPPT) for photovoltaic systems under partial shading. The main goal is to track the maximum power point of the photovoltaic module so that the maximum possible power can be extracted from the photovoltaic panels. When several panels are connected in series with some of them shaded partially either due to clouds or shadows from neighboring buildings, several local maxima appear in the power vs. voltage curve. A power increment based MPPT algorithm is effective in identifying the global maximum from the several local maxima. Several existing MPPT algorithms are explored and the state-of-the-art power increment method is simulated and tested for various partial shading conditions. The current-voltage and power-voltage characteristics of the PV model are studied under different partial shading conditions, along with five different cases demonstrating how the MPPT algorithm performs when shading switches from one state to another. Each case is supplemented with simulation results. The method of tracking the Global MPP is based on controlling the DC-DC converter connected to the output of the PV array. A complete system simulation including the PV array, the direct current to direct current (DC-DC) converter and the MPPT is presented and tested using MATLAB software. The simulation results show that the MPPT algorithm works very well with the buck converter, while the boost converter needs further changes and implementation.

  3. Structural Changes of International Trade Flows under the Impact of Globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anca Dachin

    2006-08-01

    Full Text Available Structural changes of international trade flows indicate modifications in competitiveness of countries, in terms of production, technological upgrading and exports under the pressure of globalization. The paper aims to point out sources of competitive advantages especially in manufacturing exports of different groups of countries. The focus is on the shifts in the structure of manufacturing in the European Union and their effects on international rankings in export performances. An important issue refers to the opportunities given by the enlargement of the European Union and their impact on EU trade structures.

  4. Global vegetation-fire pattern under different land use and climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thonicke, K.; Poulter, B.; Heyder, U.; Gumpenberger, M.; Cramer, W.

    2008-12-01

    Fire is a process of global significance in the Earth System influencing vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling and biophysical feedbacks. Naturally ignited wildfires have long history in the Earth System. Humans have been using fire to shape the landscape for their purposes for many millenia, sometimes influencing the status of the vegetation remarkably as for example in Mediterranean-type ecosystems. Processes and drivers describing fire danger, ignitions, fire spread and effects are relatively well-known for many fire-prone ecosystems. Modeling these has a long tradition in fire-affected regions to predict fire risk and behavior for fire-fighting purposes. On the other hand, the global vegetation community realized the importance of disturbances to be recognized in their global vegetation models with fire being globally most important and so-far best studied. First attempts to simulate fire globally considered a minimal set of drivers, whereas recent developments attempt to consider each fire process separately. The process-based fire model SPITFIRE (SPread and InTensity of FIRE) simulates these processes embedded in the LPJ DGVM. Uncertainties still arise from missing measurements for some parameters in less-studied fire regimes, or from broad PFT classifications which subsume different fire-ecological adaptations and tolerances. Some earth observation data sets as well as fire emission models help to evaluate seasonality and spatial distribution of simulated fire ignitions, area burnt and fire emissions within SPITFIRE. Deforestation fires are a major source of carbon released to the atmosphere in the tropics; in the Amazon basin it is the second-largest contributor to Brazils GHG emissions. How ongoing deforestation affects fire regimes, forest stability and biogeochemical cycling in the Amazon basin under present climate conditions will be presented. Relative importance of fire vs. climate and land use change is analyzed. Emissions resulting from

  5. Investigation of China’s national public relations strategy under globalization : the hotspots around the national media

    OpenAIRE

    雷, 紫雯

    2014-01-01

    This study investigates on China’s national public relations strategy under the globalization by analyzing the national media. In recent years, in order to improve the global public opinion environment, and to improve its national public relations capabilities that match its economic power status, China has actively strengthened its national public relations strategies, including making the national “media go out”, and building world-class media. By researching on the localization of Chinese ...

  6. Globally COnstrained Local Function Approximation via Hierarchical Modelling, a Framework for System Modelling under Partial Information

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Øjelund, Henrik; Sadegh, Payman

    2000-01-01

    be obtained. This paper presents a new approach for system modelling under partial (global) information (or the so called Gray-box modelling) that seeks to perserve the benefits of the global as well as local methodologies sithin a unified framework. While the proposed technique relies on local approximations......Local function approximations concern fitting low order models to weighted data in neighbourhoods of the points where the approximations are desired. Despite their generality and convenience of use, local models typically suffer, among others, from difficulties arising in physical interpretation...... simultaneously with the (local estimates of) function values. The approach is applied to modelling of a linear time variant dynamic system under prior linear time invariant structure where local regression fails as a result of high dimensionality....

  7. Facing aliens under globalization: changing meanings of home for Taiwanese employers of foreign domestics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Shu-Ju Ada

    2005-01-01

    This paper is concerned with changing meanings of home for Taiwanese employers of foreign domestics under globalization. Shifting sense of home occurs for Taiwanese employers as well as foreign domestics in the process of labor migration. The author argues that Taiwanese employers, facing aliens at home, have adopted various rhetorical strategies to redefine their relationships with foreign domestics and deployed diverse practices of management within their households. As foreign domestics do housework at home, Taiwanese employers also do their own "homework," struggling to understand and cope with the process of becoming and being household employers. Their "homework" is an integral part of the globalization of domestic service.

  8. Role of innovative technologies under the global zero emissions scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tokimatsu, Koji; Konishi, Satoshi; Ishihara, Keiichi; Tezuka, Tetsuo; Yasuoka, Rieko; Nishio, Masahiro

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • We modeled a zero emissions scenario based on the A1T scenario of IPCC-SRES. • We conducted global modeling by minimizing costs of energy, biomass, and materials. • A variety of advanced technology innovations were considered and incorporated. • Results suggest that zero emissions scenario may be possible in this century. • We revealed energy supply structure under the zero emissions scenarios. - Abstract: This study investigated zero emissions scenarios with following two originalities compared to various existing studies. One is that we based on A1T society of SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenario) of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) compared to existing studies on those of B1 or B2. The second one is that various innovative technologies were considered and incorporated, such as biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), and advanced nuclear technologies including hydrogen or synfuel production. We conducted global modeling over the period 2010–2150 in which energy, materials, and biomass and foods supply costs were minimized by linear programming. We found following features of energy supply structure in A1T scenario. Since the electric demand in A1T scenario in 2100 is two times larger than the others, (1) renewable energy which solely produce electricity, nuclear, and fossil energy with CCS (FECCS) especially coal are main sources of electricity, (2) renewable which can supply heat, namely BECCS and geothermal, satisfies the sector, and (3) hydrogen from coal is introduced in transport sector. It can be concluded that the zero emission energy systems with global economic growth will be possible, by development and deployment of ambitious advanced energy technologies.

  9. A global limit load solution for plates with surface cracks under combined end force and cross-thickness bending

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lei Yuebao; Fox, Mike J.H.

    2011-01-01

    A global limit load solution for rectangular surface cracks in plates under combined end force and cross-thickness bending is derived, which allows any combination of positive/negative end force and positive/negative cross-thickness moment. The solution is based on the net-section plastic collapse concept and, therefore, gives limit load values based on the Tresca yielding criterion. Solutions for both cases with and without crack face contact are derived when whole or part of the crack is located in the compressive stress zone. From the solution, particular global limit load solutions for plates with extended surface cracks and through-thickness cracks under the same loading conditions are obtained. The solution is consistent with the limit load solution for surface cracks in plates under combined tension and positive bending due to Goodall and Webster and Lei when both the applied end force and bending moment are positive. The solution reduces to the limit load solution for plain plates under combined end force and cross-thickness bending when the crack vanishes. - Highlights: → A global limit load solution for plates with surface cracks in plates is derived. → Combined positive/negative end force and positive/negative cross-thickness moment are considered. → The solution is based on the net-section plastic collapse concept.

  10. Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    John B Kim; Erwan Monier; Brent Sohngen; G Stephen Pitts; Ray Drapek; James McFarland; Sara Ohrel; Jefferson Cole

    2016-01-01

    We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a...

  11. Permafrost degradation and associated ground settlement estimation under 2 °C global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Donglin; Wang, Huijun

    2017-10-01

    Global warming of 2 °C above preindustrial levels has been considered to be the threshold that should not be exceeded by the global mean temperature to avoid dangerous interference with the climate system. However, this global mean target has different implications for different regions owing to the globally nonuniform climate change characteristics. Permafrost is sensitive to climate change; moreover, it is widely distributed in high-latitude and high-altitude regions where the greatest warming is predicted. Permafrost is expected to be severely affected by even the 2 °C global warming, which, in turn, affects other systems such as water resources, ecosystems, and infrastructures. Using air and soil temperature data from ten coupled model intercomparison project phase five models combined with observations of frozen ground, we investigated the permafrost thaw and associated ground settlement under 2 °C global warming. Results show that the climate models produced an ensemble mean permafrost area of 14.01 × 106 km2, which compares reasonably with the area of 13.89 × 106 km2 (north of 45°N) in the observations. The models predict that the soil temperature at 6 m depth will increase by 2.34-2.67 °C on area average relative to 1990-2000, and the increase intensifies with increasing latitude. The active layer thickness will also increase by 0.42-0.45 m, but dissimilar to soil temperature, the increase weakens with increasing latitude due to the distinctly cooler permafrost at higher latitudes. The permafrost extent will obviously retreat north and decrease by 24-26% and the ground settlement owing to permafrost thaw is estimated at 3.8-15 cm on area average. Possible uncertainties in this study may be mostly attributed to the less accurate ground ice content data and coarse horizontal resolution of the models.

  12. Germination Shifts of C3 and C4 Species under Simulated Global Warming Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Hongxiang; Yu, Qiang; Huang, Yingxin; Zheng, Wei; Tian, Yu; Song, Yantao; Li, Guangdi; Zhou, Daowei

    2014-01-01

    Research efforts around the world have been increasingly devoted to investigating changes in C3 and C4 species' abundance or distribution with global warming, as they provide important insight into carbon fluxes and linked biogeochemical cycles. However, changes in the early life stage (e.g. germination) of C3 and C4 species in response to global warming, particularly with respect to asymmetric warming, have received less attention. We investigated germination percentage and rate of C3 and C4 species under asymmetric (+3/+6°C at day/night) and symmetric warming (+5/+5°C at day/night), simulated by alternating temperatures. A thermal time model was used to calculate germination base temperature and thermal time constant. Two additional alternating temperature regimes were used to test temperature metrics effect. The germination percentage and rate increased continuously for C4 species, but increased and then decreased with temperature for C3 species under both symmetric and asymmetric warming. Compared to asymmetric warming, symmetric warming significantly overestimated the speed of germination percentage change with temperature for C4 species. Among the temperature metrics (minimum, maximum, diurnal temperature range and average temperature), maximum temperature was most correlated with germination of C4 species. Our results indicate that global warming may favour germination of C4 species, at least for the C4 species studied in this work. The divergent effects of asymmetric and symmetric warming on plant germination also deserve more attention in future studies. PMID:25137138

  13. Germination shifts of C3 and C4 species under simulated global warming scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Hongxiang; Yu, Qiang; Huang, Yingxin; Zheng, Wei; Tian, Yu; Song, Yantao; Li, Guangdi; Zhou, Daowei

    2014-01-01

    Research efforts around the world have been increasingly devoted to investigating changes in C3 and C4 species' abundance or distribution with global warming, as they provide important insight into carbon fluxes and linked biogeochemical cycles. However, changes in the early life stage (e.g. germination) of C3 and C4 species in response to global warming, particularly with respect to asymmetric warming, have received less attention. We investigated germination percentage and rate of C3 and C4 species under asymmetric (+3/+6°C at day/night) and symmetric warming (+5/+5°C at day/night), simulated by alternating temperatures. A thermal time model was used to calculate germination base temperature and thermal time constant. Two additional alternating temperature regimes were used to test temperature metrics effect. The germination percentage and rate increased continuously for C4 species, but increased and then decreased with temperature for C3 species under both symmetric and asymmetric warming. Compared to asymmetric warming, symmetric warming significantly overestimated the speed of germination percentage change with temperature for C4 species. Among the temperature metrics (minimum, maximum, diurnal temperature range and average temperature), maximum temperature was most correlated with germination of C4 species. Our results indicate that global warming may favour germination of C4 species, at least for the C4 species studied in this work. The divergent effects of asymmetric and symmetric warming on plant germination also deserve more attention in future studies.

  14. Globalization, Inequality, Say’s Law, and Fiscal Globalism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerasimos T. Soldatos

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available This is a brief note maintaining that financial globalization has been faster than the integration of the remaining sectors of the world economy, thus encouraging wealth inequality, under-production, and under-consumption in line with Say’s Law. Financial investment has become more profitable than real investment, discouraging production ventures, and weakening labor’s relative income position and purchasing power. Moreover, this article works out a model of international government indirect tax competition as a policy means against increasing inequality. The mentality under which this tax policy paradigm is put forward is that the competition of nation states in a fiscal globalism fashion crystallizes the optimal level of centralization under globalism; optimal, that is, from the viewpoint of safeguarding against the manipulation of world markets by financiers.

  15. Global assessment of river flood protection benefits and corresponding residual risks under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Wee Ho; Yamazaki, Dai; Koirala, Sujan; Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Kanae, Shinjiro; Dadson, Simon J.; Hall, Jim W.

    2016-04-01

    substantially when flood protection level exceeds 20 years. These findings might be useful for decision-makers to weight the size of water infrastructure investment and emergency response capacity under climate change. References: Arnell, N.W, Gosling, S.N., 2014. The impact of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale. Climatic Change 122: 127-140, doi: 10.1007/s10584-014-1084-5. Hirabayashi et al., 2013. Global flood risk under climate change. Nature Climate Change 3: 816-821, doi: 10.1038/nclimate1911. Jongman et al., 2015. Declining vulnerability to river floods and the global benefits of adaptation. Proceedings of National Academy of the United States of America 112, E2271-E2280, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1414439112. Sadoff et al., 2015. Securing Water, Sustaining Growth: Report of the GWP/OECD Task Force on Water Security and Sustainable Growth, University of Oxford, UK, 180 pp. Yamazaki et al., 2011. A physically based description of floodplain inundation dynamics in a global river routing model. Water Resources Research 47, W04501, doi: 10.1029/2010wr009726. Yamazaki et al., 2014. Development of the Global Width Database for Large Rivers. Water Resources Research 50, 3467-3480, doi: 10.1002/2013WR014664.

  16. Spatio-temporal variations of vegetation indicators in Eastern Siberia under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varlamova, Eugenia V.; Solovyev, Vladimir S.

    2017-11-01

    Study of spatio-temporal variations of NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) and phenological parameters of Eastern Siberia vegetation cover under global warming was carried out on AVHRR/NOAA data (1982-2014). Trend maps of NDVI and annual variations of phenological parameters and NDVI are analyzed. A method based on stable transition of air temperature through +5°C was used to estimate the beginning, end and the length of the growing season. Correlation between NDVI and phenological parameters, surface air temperature and precipitation are discussed.

  17. Generalization of a global model for reinforced concrete beams under combined axial force and bending moments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bairrao, R.; Millard, A.; Barbe, B.

    1991-01-01

    A large set of numerical data was obtained using a program recently developed. From the various results achieved, new analytical expressions for the definition of damage and plasticity criteria are being derived. The importance of taking into account the presence of general bending was highlighted. The extension to 3D bending, of the previous global models for reinforced concrete beams under combined axial force and bending, is under development. (author)

  18. Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century under multiple climate change mitigation policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Wise, Marshall A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Katherine V.

    2014-08-01

    Water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally are assessed in the context of climate change and climate mitigation policies, by estimating both water availability and water demand within the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. To quantify changes in future water availability, a new gridded water-balance global hydrologic model – namely, the Global Water Availability Model (GWAM) – is developed and evaluated. Global water demands for six major demand sectors (irrigation, livestock, domestic, electricity generation, primary energy production, and manufacturing) are modeled in GCAM at the regional scale (14 geopolitical regions, 151 sub-regions) and then spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. Using a baseline scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) and three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively), we investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity. Two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. The baseline scenario results in more than half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Additionally, in years 2050 and 2095, 36% (28%) and 44% (39%) of the global population, respectively, is projected to live in grid cells (in basins) that will experience greater water demands than the amount of available water in a year (i.e., the water scarcity index (WSI) > 1.0). When comparing the climate policy scenarios to the baseline scenario while maintaining

  19. Germination shifts of C3 and C4 species under simulated global warming scenario.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongxiang Zhang

    Full Text Available Research efforts around the world have been increasingly devoted to investigating changes in C3 and C4 species' abundance or distribution with global warming, as they provide important insight into carbon fluxes and linked biogeochemical cycles. However, changes in the early life stage (e.g. germination of C3 and C4 species in response to global warming, particularly with respect to asymmetric warming, have received less attention. We investigated germination percentage and rate of C3 and C4 species under asymmetric (+3/+6°C at day/night and symmetric warming (+5/+5°C at day/night, simulated by alternating temperatures. A thermal time model was used to calculate germination base temperature and thermal time constant. Two additional alternating temperature regimes were used to test temperature metrics effect. The germination percentage and rate increased continuously for C4 species, but increased and then decreased with temperature for C3 species under both symmetric and asymmetric warming. Compared to asymmetric warming, symmetric warming significantly overestimated the speed of germination percentage change with temperature for C4 species. Among the temperature metrics (minimum, maximum, diurnal temperature range and average temperature, maximum temperature was most correlated with germination of C4 species. Our results indicate that global warming may favour germination of C4 species, at least for the C4 species studied in this work. The divergent effects of asymmetric and symmetric warming on plant germination also deserve more attention in future studies.

  20. Flood Inundation Modelling Under Uncertainty Using Globally and Freely Available Remote Sensing Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, K.; Di Baldassarre, G.; Giustarini, L.; Solomatine, D. P.

    2012-04-01

    The extreme consequences of recent catastrophic events have highlighted that flood risk prevention still needs to be improved to reduce human losses and economic damages, which have considerably increased worldwide in recent years. Flood risk management and long term floodplain planning are vital for living with floods, which is the currently proposed approach to cope with floods. To support the decision making processes, a significant issue is the availability of data to build appropriate and reliable models, from which the needed information could be obtained. The desirable data for model building, calibration and validation are often not sufficient or available. A unique opportunity is offered nowadays by globally available data which can be freely downloaded from internet. This might open new opportunities for filling the gap between available and needed data, in order to build reliable models and potentially lead to the development of global inundation models to produce floodplain maps for the entire globe. However, there remains the question of what is the real potential of those global remote sensing data, characterized by different accuracy, for global inundation monitoring and how to integrate them with inundation models. This research aims at contributing to understand whether the current globally and freely available remote sensing data (e.g. SRTM, SAR) can be actually used to appropriately support inundation modelling. In this study, the SRTM DEM is used for hydraulic model building, while ENVISAT-ASAR satellite imagery is used for model validation. To test the usefulness of these globally and freely available data, a model based on the high resolution LiDAR DEM and ground data (high water marks) is used as benchmark. The work is carried out on a data-rich test site: the River Alzette in the north of Luxembourg City. Uncertainties are estimated for both SRTM and LiDAR based models. Probabilistic flood inundation maps are produced under the framework of

  1. Change in ocean subsurface environment to suppress tropical cyclone intensification under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Ping; Lin, I. -I; Chou, Chia; Huang, Rong-Hui

    2015-01-01

    Tropical cyclones (TCs) are hazardous natural disasters. Because TC intensification is significantly controlled by atmosphere and ocean environments, changes in these environments may cause changes in TC intensity. Changes in surface and subsurface ocean conditions can both influence a TC's intensification. Regarding global warming, minimal exploration of the subsurface ocean has been undertaken. Here we investigate future subsurface ocean environment changes projected by 22 state-of-the-art climate models and suggest a suppressive effect of subsurface oceans on the intensification of future TCs. Under global warming, the subsurface vertical temperature profile can be sharpened in important TC regions, which may contribute to a stronger ocean coupling (cooling) effect during the intensification of future TCs. Regarding a TC, future subsurface ocean environments may be more suppressive than the existing subsurface ocean environments. This suppressive effect is not spatially uniform and may be weak in certain local areas. PMID:25982028

  2. THE DENSITY DISTRIBUTION IN TURBULENT BISTABLE FLOWS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gazol, Adriana; Kim, Jongsoo

    2013-01-01

    We numerically study the volume density probability distribution function (n-PDF) and the column density probability distribution function (Σ-PDF) resulting from thermally bistable turbulent flows. We analyze three-dimensional hydrodynamic models in periodic boxes of 100 pc by side, where turbulence is driven in the Fourier space at a wavenumber corresponding to 50 pc. At low densities (n ∼ –3 ), the n-PDF is well described by a lognormal distribution for an average local Mach number ranging from ∼0.2 to ∼5.5. As a consequence of the nonlinear development of thermal instability (TI), the logarithmic variance of the distribution of the diffuse gas increases with M faster than in the well-known isothermal case. The average local Mach number for the dense gas (n ∼> 7.1 cm –3 ) goes from ∼1.1 to ∼16.9 and the shape of the high-density zone of the n-PDF changes from a power law at low Mach numbers to a lognormal at high M values. In the latter case, the width of the distribution is smaller than in the isothermal case and grows slower with M. At high column densities, the Σ-PDF is well described by a lognormal for all of the Mach numbers we consider and, due to the presence of TI, the width of the distribution is systematically larger than in the isothermal case but follows a qualitatively similar behavior as M increases. Although a relationship between the width of the distribution and M can be found for each one of the cases mentioned above, these relations are different from those of the isothermal case.

  3. Island development: Local governance under globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huei-Min Tsai

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Issues surrounding island development have generated a growing volume of research. What does it mean to develop? How can island communities maintain control over development processes to the benefit of the local economy, rather than seeing economic flows enter and exit the island with little or a primarily negative impact? And how important is local knowledge for edifying local governance and enhancing potentials for innovation in island development? Island histories have repeatedly been forwarded as exemplars and ‘lessons’ for global learning on (unsustainability. To consider these issues, we have selected a number of papers from among the presentations given at the International Geographical Union’s Commission on Islands Conference, Island Development: Local Economy, Culture, Innovation and Sustainability, which took place in the Penghu Archipelago, Taiwan, 1–5 October 2013. These papers serve as examples of how the processes of globalization have penetrated the borders and changed the political and economic structures of islands. They also explore how island-based innovations in science, technology, culture, and formal or informal governance might contribute to sustainable island development.

  4. Evolution of surface sensible heat over the Tibetan Plateau under the recent global warming hiatus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Lihua; Huang, Gang; Fan, Guangzhou; Qu, Xia; Zhao, Guijie; Hua, Wei

    2017-10-01

    Based on regular surface meteorological observations and NCEP/DOE reanalysis data, this study investigates the evolution of surface sensible heat (SH) over the central and eastern Tibetan Plateau (CE-TP) under the recent global warming hiatus. The results reveal that the SH over the CE-TP presents a recovery since the slowdown of the global warming. The restored surface wind speed together with increased difference in ground-air temperature contribute to the recovery in SH. During the global warming hiatus, the persistent weakening wind speed is alleviated due to the variation of the meridional temperature gradient. Meanwhile, the ground surface temperature and the difference in ground-air temperature show a significant increasing trend in that period caused by the increased total cloud amount, especially at night. At nighttime, the increased total cloud cover reduces the surface effective radiation via a strengthening of atmospheric counter radiation and subsequently brings about a clear upward trend in ground surface temperature and the difference in ground-air temperature. Cloud-radiation feedback plays a significant role in the evolution of the surface temperature and even SH during the global warming hiatus. Consequently, besides the surface wind speed, the difference in ground-air temperature becomes another significant factor for the variation in SH since the slowdown of global warming, particularly at night.

  5. Observed magnified runoff response to rainfall intensification under global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Jr-Chuan; Lee, Tsung-Yu; Lee, Jun-Yi

    2014-01-01

    Runoff response to rainfall intensification under global warming is crucial, but is poorly discussed due to the limited data length and human alteration. Historical rainfall and runoff records in pristine catchments in Taiwan were investigated through trend analysis and cross temperature difference analysis. Trend analysis showed that both rainfall and runoff in the 99.9-percentile have been significantly increasing in terms of frequency and intensity over the past four decades. Cross temperature difference analysis quantified that the rainfall and runoff extremes (including the 99.0–99.9-percentiles) may increase by 69.5% and 99.8%, respectively, under a future scenario of 1  ° C increase in temperature. This increase in intensity resembles the increase in intensity observed between 1971–1990 and 1991–2010. The amplified runoff response can be related to the limited catchment storage capacity being preoccupied by rainfall extremes. The quantified temperature effect on rainfall and runoff intensification can be a strong basis for designing scenarios, confirming and fusing GCMs’ results. In addition, the runoff amplification should be a warning for other regions with significant rainfall intensification. Appropriate strategies are indispensable and urgently needed to maintain and protect the development of societies. (paper)

  6. Projected changes in prevailing winds for transatlantic migratory birds under global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    La Sorte, Frank A; Fink, Daniel

    2017-03-01

    A number of terrestrial bird species that breed in North America cross the Atlantic Ocean during autumn migration when travelling to their non-breeding grounds in the Caribbean or South America. When conducting oceanic crossings, migratory birds tend to associate with mild or supportive winds, whose speed and direction may change under global warming. The implications of these changes for transoceanic migratory bird populations have not been addressed. We used occurrence information from eBird (1950-2015) to estimate the geographical location of population centres at a daily temporal resolution across the annual cycle for 10 transatlantic migratory bird species. We used this information to estimate the location and timing of autumn migration within the transatlantic flyway. We estimated how prevailing winds are projected to change within the transatlantic flyway during this time using daily wind speed anomalies (1996-2005 and 2091-2100) from 29 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models implemented under CMIP5. Autumn transatlantic migrants have the potential to encounter strong westerly crosswinds early in their transatlantic journey at intermediate and especially high migration altitudes, strong headwinds at low and intermediate migration altitudes within the Caribbean that increase in strength as the season progresses, and weak tailwinds at intermediate and high migration altitudes east of the Caribbean. The CMIP5 simulations suggest that, during this century, the likelihood of autumn transatlantic migrants encountering strong westerly crosswinds will diminish. As global warming progresses, the need for species to compensate or drift under the influence of strong westerly crosswinds during the initial phase of their autumn transatlantic journey may be diminished. Existing strategies that promote headwind avoidance and tailwind assistance will likely remain valid. Thus, climate change may reduce time and energy requirements and the chance of mortality or

  7. Biodiversity's big wet secret: the global distribution of marine biological records reveals chronic under-exploration of the deep pelagic ocean.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas J Webb

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Understanding the distribution of marine biodiversity is a crucial first step towards the effective and sustainable management of marine ecosystems. Recent efforts to collate location records from marine surveys enable us to assemble a global picture of recorded marine biodiversity. They also effectively highlight gaps in our knowledge of particular marine regions. In particular, the deep pelagic ocean--the largest biome on Earth--is chronically under-represented in global databases of marine biodiversity. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We use data from the Ocean Biogeographic Information System to plot the position in the water column of ca 7 million records of marine species occurrences. Records from relatively shallow waters dominate this global picture of recorded marine biodiversity. In addition, standardising the number of records from regions of the ocean differing in depth reveals that regardless of ocean depth, most records come either from surface waters or the sea bed. Midwater biodiversity is drastically under-represented. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The deep pelagic ocean is the largest habitat by volume on Earth, yet it remains biodiversity's big wet secret, as it is hugely under-represented in global databases of marine biological records. Given both its value in the provision of a range of ecosystem services, and its vulnerability to threats including overfishing and climate change, there is a pressing need to increase our knowledge of Earth's largest ecosystem.

  8. Humanistic, authoritative and ecopsychological perspective in education or rethinking philosophy for children under globalization

    OpenAIRE

    Lushyn, Pavel; Kirovograd State Pedagogical University

    2009-01-01

    Humanistic, authoritative and ecopsychological perspective in education or rethinking philosophy for children under globalization Abstract: The paper deals with the analysis of the buffer or transitional nature of humanistic-oriented school subjects like “Philosophy for children” first introduced in the USA by Dr. M. Lipman and Dr. Ann Sharp. A new ecopsychological and ecofacilitative vision is suggested. The ecofacilitative approach is assumed to be better fit a) into the framework of...

  9. Computational studies of global nuclear energy development under the assumption of the world's heterogeneous development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Egorov, A.F.; Korobejnikov, V.V.; Poplavskaya, E.V.; Fesenko, G.A.

    2013-01-01

    Authors study the mathematical model of Global nuclear energy development until the end of this century. For comparative scenarios analysis of transition to sustainable nuclear energy systems, the models of heterogeneous world with an allowance for specific national development are under investigation [ru

  10. Calculation of probability density functions for temperature and precipitation change under global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watterson, Ian G.

    2007-01-01

    Full text: he IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (Meehl ef al. 2007) presents multi-model means of the CMIP3 simulations as projections of the global climate change over the 21st century under several SRES emission scenarios. To assess the possible range of change for Australia based on the CMIP3 ensemble, we can follow Whetton etal. (2005) and use the 'pattern scaling' approach, which separates the uncertainty in the global mean warming from that in the local change per degree of warming. This study presents several ways of representing these two factors as probability density functions (PDFs). The beta distribution, a smooth, bounded, function allowing skewness, is found to provide a useful representation of the range of CMIP3 results. A weighting of models based on their skill in simulating seasonal means in the present climate over Australia is included. Dessai ef al. (2005) and others have used Monte-Carlo sampling to recombine such global warming and scaled change factors into values of net change. Here, we use a direct integration of the product across the joint probability space defined by the two PDFs. The result is a cumulative distribution function (CDF) for change, for each variable, location, and season. The median of this distribution provides a best estimate of change, while the 10th and 90th percentiles represent a likely range. The probability of exceeding a specified threshold can also be extracted from the CDF. The presentation focuses on changes in Australian temperature and precipitation at 2070 under the A1B scenario. However, the assumption of linearity behind pattern scaling allows results for different scenarios and times to be simply obtained. In the case of precipitation, which must remain non-negative, a simple modification of the calculations (based on decreases being exponential with warming) is used to avoid unrealistic results. These approaches are currently being used for the new CSIRO/ Bureau of Meteorology climate projections

  11. BUSINESS GLOBALIZATION: TRANSNATIONAL CORPORATIONS AND GLOBAL COMPETITION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DIMA Stela

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to introduce business globalization and the main globalization factors which, under the current stage, are transnational corporations. Globalization is the result of the pressure put by companies which, in turn, are under the close “magnifier” of all the involved factors (the so-called “stakeholders”. The market and the determining forces are not influenced by a political attitude nowadays marking globalization, but rather the political decisions have followed the course of economic evolutions, a trend that has always been provided by multinational corporations. In order to successfully follow up their activity, companies initiate new businesses, selling or deleting from their portfolio businesses or divisions with a decreasing tendency. Also, companies give up old rules and structures adopting new decision-making processes, control systems and mental patterns. Corporations must learn to become dynamic just like the market, if they wish to maintain, on the long run, a superior rate of income.

  12. Ethical practice under fire: deployed physicians in the global war on terrorism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sessums, Laura L; Collen, Jacob F; O'Malley, Patrick G; Jackson, Jeffery L; Roy, Michael J

    2009-05-01

    The Global War on Terrorism brings significant ethical challenges for military physicians. From Abu Ghraib to Guantanamo Bay, the actions of health care providers have come under considerable scrutiny. Military providers have dual roles as military officers and medical professionals, which have the potential to come into conflict. Often they are inadequately prepared to manage this conflict. We review pertinent historical precedents, applicable laws, ethical guidelines, and military regulations. We also present examples of ethical challenges deployed clinicians have faced and their ethical solution. Finally, we propose a practical strategy to educate physicians on how to manage complex ethical dilemmas in war time settings.

  13. Designer policy for carbon and biodiversity co-benefits under global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bryan, Brett A.; Runting, Rebecca K.; Capon, Tim; Perring, Michael P.; Cunningham, Shaun C.; Kragt, Marit E.; Nolan, Martin; Law, Elizabeth A.; Renwick, Anna R.; Eber, Sue; Christian, Rochelle; Wilson, Kerrie A.

    2016-03-01

    Carbon payments can help mitigate both climate change and biodiversity decline through the reforestation of agricultural land. However, to achieve biodiversity co-benefits, carbon payments often require support from other policy mechanisms such as regulation, targeting, and complementary incentives. We evaluated 14 policy mechanisms for supplying carbon and biodiversity co-benefits through reforestation of carbon plantings (CP) and environmental plantings (EP) in Australia’s 85.3 Mha agricultural land under global change. The reference policy--uniform payments (bidders are paid the same price) with land-use competition (both CP and EP eligible for payments), targeting carbon--achieved significant carbon sequestration but negligible biodiversity co-benefits. Land-use regulation (only EP eligible) and two additional incentives complementing the reference policy (biodiversity premium, carbon levy) increased biodiversity co-benefits, but mostly inefficiently. Discriminatory payments (bidders are paid their bid price) with land-use competition were efficient, and with multifunctional targeting of both carbon and biodiversity co-benefits increased the biodiversity co-benefits almost 100-fold. Our findings were robust to uncertainty in global outlook, and to key agricultural productivity and land-use adoption assumptions. The results suggest clear policy directions, but careful mechanism design will be key to realising these efficiencies in practice. Choices remain for society about the amount of carbon and biodiversity co-benefits desired, and the price it is prepared to pay for them.

  14. Northward shift of the agricultural climate zone under 21st-century global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Myron; Altdorff, Daniel; Li, Pengfei; Galagedara, Lakshman; Holden, Joseph; Unc, Adrian

    2018-05-21

    As agricultural regions are threatened by climate change, warming of high latitude regions and increasing food demands may lead to northward expansion of global agriculture. While socio-economic demands and edaphic conditions may govern the expansion, climate is a key limiting factor. Extant literature on future crop projections considers established agricultural regions and is mainly temperature based. We employed growing degree days (GDD), as the physiological link between temperature and crop growth, to assess the global northward shift of agricultural climate zones under 21 st -century climate change. Using ClimGen scenarios for seven global climate models (GCMs), based on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and transient GHGs, we delineated the future extent of GDD areas, feasible for small cereals, and assessed the projected changes in rainfall and potential evapotranspiration. By 2099, roughly 76% (55% to 89%) of the boreal region might reach crop feasible GDD conditions, compared to the current 32%. The leading edge of the feasible GDD will shift northwards up to 1200 km by 2099 while the altitudinal shift remains marginal. However, most of the newly gained areas are associated with highly seasonal and monthly variations in climatic water balances, a critical component of any future land-use and management decisions.

  15. Benefits of economic criteria for water scarcity management under global changes: insights from a large-scale hydroeconomic framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neverre, Noémie; Dumas, Patrice; Nassopoulos, Hypatia

    2016-04-01

    Global changes are expected to exacerbate water scarcity issues in the Mediterranean region in the next decades. In this work, we investigate the impacts of reservoirs operation rules based on an economic criterion. We examine whether can they help reduce the costs of water scarcity, and whether they become more relevant under future climatic and socioeconomic conditions. We develop an original hydroeconomic model able to compare future water supply and demand on a large scale, while representing river basin heterogeneity. On the demand side, we focus on the two main sectors of water use: the irrigation and domestic sectors. Demands are projected in terms of both quantity and economic value. Irrigation requirements are computed for 12 types of crops, at the 0.5° spatial resolution, under future climatic conditions (A1B scenario). The computation of the economic benefits of irrigation water is based on a yield comparison approach between rainfed and irrigated crops. For the domestic sector, we project the combined effects of demographic growth, economic development and water cost evolution on future demands. The economic value of domestic water is defined as the economic surplus. On the supply side, we evaluate the impacts of climate change on water inflows to the reservoirs. Operating rules of the reservoirs are set up using a parameterisation-simulation-optimisation approach. The objective is to maximise water benefits. We introduce prudential parametric rules in order to take into account spatial and temporal trade-offs. The methodology is applied to Algeria at the 2050 horizon. Overall, our results show that the supply-demand imbalance and its costs will increase in most basins under future climatic and socioeconomic conditions. Our results suggest that the benefits of operating rules based on economic criteria are not unequivocally increased with global changes: in some basins the positive impact of economic prioritisation is higher under future conditions

  16. The fragmentation instability of a black hole with f( R) global monopole under GUP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lingshen; Cheng, Hongbo

    2018-03-01

    Having studied the fragmentation of the black holes containing f( R) global monopole under the generalized uncertainty principle (GUP), we show the influences from this kind of monopole, f( R) theory, and GUP on the evolution of black holes. We focus on the possibility that the black hole breaks into two parts by means of the second law of thermodynamics. We derive the entropies of the initial black hole and the broken parts while the generalization of Heisenberg's uncertainty principle is introduced. We find that the f( R) global monopole black hole keeps stable instead of splitting without the generalization because the entropy difference is negative. The fragmentation of the black hole will happen if the black hole entropies are limited by the GUP and the considerable deviation from the general relativity leads to the case that the mass of one fragmented black hole is smaller and the other one's mass is larger.

  17. Global dynamics of oscillator populations under common noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braun, W.; Pikovsky, A.; Matias, M. A.; Colet, P.

    2012-07-01

    Common noise acting on a population of identical oscillators can synchronize them. We develop a description of this process which is not limited to the states close to synchrony, but provides a global picture of the evolution of the ensembles. The theory is based on the Watanabe-Strogatz transformation, allowing us to obtain closed stochastic equations for the global variables. We show that at the initial stage, the order parameter grows linearly in time, while at the later stages the convergence to synchrony is exponentially fast. Furthermore, we extend the theory to nonidentical ensembles with the Lorentzian distribution of natural frequencies and determine the stationary values of the order parameter in dependence on driving noise and mismatch.

  18. On the role of ozone feedback in the ENSO amplitude response under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nowack, P. J.; Braesicke, P.; Abraham, N. L.; Pyle, J. A.

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific is of key importance to global climate and weather. However, climate models still disagree on the ENSO's response under climate change. Here we show that typical model representations of ozone can have a first-order impact on ENSO amplitude projections in climate sensitivity simulations (i.e. standard abrupt 4xCO2). We mainly explain this effect by the lapse rate adjustment of the tropical troposphere to ozone changes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) under 4xCO2. The ozone-induced lapse rate changes modify the Walker circulation response to the CO2 forcing and consequently tropical Pacific surface temperature gradients. Therefore, not including ozone feedbacks increases the number of extreme ENSO events in our model. In addition, we demonstrate that even if ozone changes in the tropical UTLS are included in the simulations, the neglect of the ozone response in the middle-upper stratosphere still leads to significantly larger ENSO amplitudes (compared to simulations run with a fully interactive atmospheric chemistry scheme). Climate modeling studies of the ENSO often neglect changes in ozone. Our results imply that this could affect the inter-model spread found in ENSO projections and, more generally, surface climate change simulations. We discuss the additional complexity in quantifying such ozone-related effects that arises from the apparent model dependency of chemistry-climate feedbacks and, possibly, their range of surface climate impacts. In conclusion, we highlight the need to understand better the coupling between ozone, the tropospheric circulation, and climate variability. Reference: Nowack PJ, Braesicke P, Abraham NL, and Pyle JA (2017), On the role of ozone feedback in the ENSO amplitude response under global warming, Geophys. Res. Lett. 44, 3858-3866, doi:10.1002/2016GL072418.

  19. The global impact of ozone on agricultural crop yields under current and future air quality legislation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Dingenen, Rita; Dentener, Frank J.; Raes, Frank; Krol, Maarten C.; Emberson, Lisa; Cofala, Janusz

    In this paper we evaluate the global impact of surface ozone on four types of agricultural crop. The study is based on modelled global hourly ozone fields for the year 2000 and 2030, using the global 1°×1° 2-way nested atmospheric chemical transport model (TM5). Projections for the year 2030 are based on the relatively optimistic "current legislation (CLE) scenario", i.e. assuming that currently approved air quality legislation will be fully implemented by the year 2030, without a further development of new abatement policies. For both runs, the relative yield loss due to ozone damage is evaluated based on two different indices (accumulated concentration above a 40 ppbV threshold and seasonal mean daytime ozone concentration respectively) on a global, regional and national scale. The cumulative metric appears to be far less robust than the seasonal mean, while the seasonal mean shows satisfactory agreement with measurements in Europe, the US, China and Southern India and South-East Asia. Present day global relative yield losses are estimated to range between 7% and 12% for wheat, between 6% and 16% for soybean, between 3% and 4% for rice, and between 3% and 5% for maize (range resulting from different metrics used). Taking into account possible biases in our assessment, introduced through the global application of "western" crop exposure-response functions, and through model performance in reproducing ozone-exposure metrics, our estimates may be considered as being conservative. Under the 2030 CLE scenario, the global situation is expected to deteriorate mainly for wheat (additional 2-6% loss globally) and rice (additional 1-2% loss globally). India, for which no mitigation measures have been assumed by 2030, accounts for 50% of these global increase in crop yield loss. On a regional-scale, significant reductions in crop losses by CLE-2030 are only predicted in Europe (soybean) and China (wheat). Translating these assumed yield losses into total global economic

  20. Global agricultural land resources--a high resolution suitability evaluation and its perspectives until 2100 under climate change conditions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florian Zabel

    Full Text Available Changing natural conditions determine the land's suitability for agriculture. The growing demand for food, feed, fiber and bioenergy increases pressure on land and causes trade-offs between different uses of land and ecosystem services. Accordingly, an inventory is required on the changing potentially suitable areas for agriculture under changing climate conditions. We applied a fuzzy logic approach to compute global agricultural suitability to grow the 16 most important food and energy crops according to the climatic, soil and topographic conditions at a spatial resolution of 30 arc seconds. We present our results for current climate conditions (1981-2010, considering today's irrigated areas and separately investigate the suitability of densely forested as well as protected areas, in order to investigate their potentials for agriculture. The impact of climate change under SRES A1B conditions, as simulated by the global climate model ECHAM5, on agricultural suitability is shown by comparing the time-period 2071-2100 with 1981-2010. Our results show that climate change will expand suitable cropland by additionally 5.6 million km2, particularly in the Northern high latitudes (mainly in Canada, China and Russia. Most sensitive regions with decreasing suitability are found in the Global South, mainly in tropical regions, where also the suitability for multiple cropping decreases.

  1. A New Technique for Tracking the Global Maximum Power Point of PV Arrays Operating Under Partial-Shading Conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koutroulis, Eftichios; Blaabjerg, Frede

    2012-01-01

    The power-voltage characteristic of photovoltaic (PV) arrays operating under partial-shading conditions exhibits multiple local maximum power points (MPPs). In this paper, a new method to track the global MPP is presented, which is based on controlling a dc/dc converter connected at the PV array...

  2. Forest Distribution on Small Isolated Hills and Implications on Woody Plant Distribution under Threats of Global Warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chi-Cheng Liao

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Treelines have been found to be lower in small isolated hilltops, but the specific dynamics behind this unique phenomenon are unknown. This study investigates the distribution patterns of woody plants in Yangmingshan National Park (YMSNP, Northern Taiwan in search of the limitation mechanisms unique to small isolated hills, and to evaluate potential threats under global warming. Forests distributed between 200 to 900 m above sea level (ASL. Remnant forest fragments between 400 and 900 m ASL, have the highest species richness, and should be protected to ensure future forest recovery from the former extensive artificial disturbance. The lower boundary is threatened by urban and agricultural development. The lack of native woody species in these low elevation zones may cause a gap susceptible to invasive species. A consistent forest line at 100 m below mountain tops regardless of elevation suggests a topography-induced instead of an elevation-related limiting mechanism. Therefore, upward-shift of forests, caused by global warming, might be limited at 100 m below hilltops in small isolated hills because of topography-related factors. The spatial range of woody plants along the altitudinal gradient, thus, is likely to become narrower under the combined pressures of global warming, limited elevation, exposure-related stress, and artificial disturbance. Management priorities for forest recovery are suggested to include preservation of remnant forest fragments, increasing forest connectivity, and increasing seedling establishment in the grasslands.

  3. Multi-Model Projections of River Flood Risk in Europe under Global Warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorenzo Alfieri

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Knowledge on the costs of natural disasters under climate change is key information for planning adaptation and mitigation strategies of future climate policies. Impact models for large scale flood risk assessment have made leaps forward in the past few years, thanks to the increased availability of high resolution climate projections and of information on local exposure and vulnerability to river floods. Yet, state-of-the-art flood impact models rely on a number of input data and techniques that can substantially influence their results. This work compares estimates of river flood risk in Europe from three recent case studies, assuming global warming scenarios of 1.5, 2, and 3 degrees Celsius from pre-industrial levels. The assessment is based on comparing ensemble projections of expected damage and population affected at country level. Differences and common points between the three cases are shown, to point out main sources of uncertainty, strengths, and limitations. In addition, the multi-model comparison helps identify regions with the largest agreement on specific changes in flood risk. Results show that global warming is linked to substantial increase in flood risk over most countries in Central and Western Europe at all warming levels. In Eastern Europe, the average change in flood risk is smaller and the multi-model agreement is poorer.

  4. Contribution of air conditioning adoption to future energy use under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Lucas W.; Gertler, Paul J.

    2015-01-01

    As household incomes rise around the world and global temperatures go up, the use of air conditioning is poised to increase dramatically. Air conditioning growth is expected to be particularly strong in middle-income countries, but direct empirical evidence is scarce. In this paper we use high-quality microdata from Mexico to describe the relationship between temperature, income, and air conditioning. We describe both how electricity consumption increases with temperature given current levels of air conditioning, and how climate and income drive air conditioning adoption decisions. We then combine these estimates with predicted end-of-century temperature changes to forecast future energy consumption. Under conservative assumptions about household income, our model predicts near-universal saturation of air conditioning in all warm areas within just a few decades. Temperature increases contribute to this surge in adoption, but income growth by itself explains most of the increase. What this will mean for electricity consumption and carbon dioxide emissions depends on the pace of technological change. Continued advances in energy efficiency or the development of new cooling technologies could reduce the energy consumption impacts. Similarly, growth in low-carbon electricity generation could mitigate the increases in carbon dioxide emissions. However, the paper illustrates the enormous potential impacts in this sector, highlighting the importance of future research on adaptation and underscoring the urgent need for global action on climate change. PMID:25918391

  5. Contribution of air conditioning adoption to future energy use under global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Lucas W; Gertler, Paul J

    2015-05-12

    As household incomes rise around the world and global temperatures go up, the use of air conditioning is poised to increase dramatically. Air conditioning growth is expected to be particularly strong in middle-income countries, but direct empirical evidence is scarce. In this paper we use high-quality microdata from Mexico to describe the relationship between temperature, income, and air conditioning. We describe both how electricity consumption increases with temperature given current levels of air conditioning, and how climate and income drive air conditioning adoption decisions. We then combine these estimates with predicted end-of-century temperature changes to forecast future energy consumption. Under conservative assumptions about household income, our model predicts near-universal saturation of air conditioning in all warm areas within just a few decades. Temperature increases contribute to this surge in adoption, but income growth by itself explains most of the increase. What this will mean for electricity consumption and carbon dioxide emissions depends on the pace of technological change. Continued advances in energy efficiency or the development of new cooling technologies could reduce the energy consumption impacts. Similarly, growth in low-carbon electricity generation could mitigate the increases in carbon dioxide emissions. However, the paper illustrates the enormous potential impacts in this sector, highlighting the importance of future research on adaptation and underscoring the urgent need for global action on climate change.

  6. Municipal Energy Planning under Conditions of Globalization: Imperatives and Objectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Horban Vasylyna B.

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The article reveals the importance of energy planning for local authorities in the path of achieving the goals of sustainable development. The quintessence of energy planning in territorial communities of Ukraine and Europe has been outlined from the perspective of analyzing the infrastructure sectors of the municipal economy. The article is based on observing certain international methodologies related to local energy and climate planning. The evolution of Covenant of Mayors initiative is briefly described with a focus on its intensive expanding in terms of energy and climate issues. The experience in the development of municipal sustainable energy and climate action plans in European countries and Ukraine is studied. A survey of empirical data on the consumption of fuel and energy resources and greenhouse gas emissions in territorial communities of Ukraine and European countries is conducted. The European methodological guidelines on the subject under study are highlighted based on the key policy documents. A few practical examples of Ukrainian and European cities are presented in order to illustrate possible actions corresponding to the defined problem. A systematic framework is proposed to describe the various and complex aspects of energy planning in cities with regard to rational implementation of energy efficient measures. The innovative mechanisms, main barriers and opportunities for the effective implementation of energy efficient projects in territorial communities of Ukraine and European countries are revealed. It is substantiated that under the current conditions of globalization, using project-oriented paradigm, municipal energy planning instruments become key motivational factors for development sustainable energy policy.

  7. Increased evapotranspiration demand in a Mediterranean climate might cause a decline in fungal yields under global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ágreda, Teresa; Águeda, Beatriz; Olano, José M; Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M; Fernández-Toirán, Marina

    2015-09-01

    Wild fungi play a critical role in forest ecosystems, and its recollection is a relevant economic activity. Understanding fungal response to climate is necessary in order to predict future fungal production in Mediterranean forests under climate change scenarios. We used a 15-year data set to model the relationship between climate and epigeous fungal abundance and productivity, for mycorrhizal and saprotrophic guilds in a Mediterranean pine forest. The obtained models were used to predict fungal productivity for the 2021-2080 period by means of regional climate change models. Simple models based on early spring temperature and summer-autumn rainfall could provide accurate estimates for fungal abundance and productivity. Models including rainfall and climatic water balance showed similar results and explanatory power for the analyzed 15-year period. However, their predictions for the 2021-2080 period diverged. Rainfall-based models predicted a maintenance of fungal yield, whereas water balance-based models predicted a steady decrease of fungal productivity under a global warming scenario. Under Mediterranean conditions fungi responded to weather conditions in two distinct periods: early spring and late summer-autumn, suggesting a bimodal pattern of growth. Saprotrophic and mycorrhizal fungi showed differences in the climatic control. Increased atmospheric evaporative demand due to global warming might lead to a drop in fungal yields during the 21st century. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Regional to global changes in drought and implications for future changes under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Kam, J.

    2012-12-01

    Drought can have large impacts on multiple sectors, including agriculture, water resources, ecosystems, transport, industry and tourism. In extreme cases, regional drought can lead to food insecurity and famine, and in intensive agricultural regions, extend to global economic impacts in a connected world. Recent droughts globally have been severe and costly but whether they are becoming more frequent and severe, and the attribution of this, is a key question. Observational evidence at large scales, such as satellite remote sensing are often subject to short-term records and inhomogeneities, and ground based data are sparse in many regions. Reliance on model output is also subject to error and simplifications in the model physics that can, for example, amplify the impact of global warming on drought. This presentation will show the observational and model evidence for changes in drought, with a focus on the interplay between precipitation and atmospheric evaporative demand and its impact on the terrestrial water cycle and drought. We discuss the fidelity of climate models to reproduce our best estimates of drought variability and its drivers historically, and the implications of this on uncertainties in future projections of drought from CMIP5 models, and how this has changed since CMIP3.

  9. Hydrological Responses of Chaobai River Basin under 1.5° and 2.0° Global Warming Using Multi-GCMs and Multi-RCPs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Y.; Ma, J.

    2017-12-01

    The global warming of 1.5° and 2.0° proposed in Paris Agreement has became the iconic threshold of climate change impact research and discussion. In order to provide useful reference to the effective water resource management and planning for the capital city of China, this study aims to assessing the potential impact of 1.5° and 2.0° global warming on river discharge in Chaobai River Basin(CRB) which is main water supply source of Beijing. A semi-distributed hydrological model SWAT was driven by climate projections from five General Circulation Models(GCMs) under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) to simulate the future discharge in CRB under 1.5° and 2.0° global warming respectively. On this basis, climate change impact on annual and monthly discharge, seasonal discharge distribution, extreme monthly discharge in CRB were assessed and the uncertainty associated with GCMs and RCPs were analyzed quantitatively. The results indicate that the average annual discharge will increase slightly and more concentrate in midsummer and early autumn under 1.5° global warming. When the global average temperature rise 2°, the annual discharge in CRB show an evident positive tendency with the magnitude increasing by approximate 30% and the extreme monthly runoff will significantly increase. However, the proportion of discharge in summer which is the peak water usage period will decline. It is obvious that the increment of 0.5° will lead to more flood events and bring great challenge to water resource management. There is a certain uncertainty in the projection of temperature, precipitation and discharge, by contrast, uncertainty of discharge projection is far greater than that of other two meteorological elements. Compared with RCPs, GCMs are proved to be the main factor which are responsible for the impact uncertainty in CRB under two global warming horizons. The uncertainty will be larger as the warming magnitude increase. In a word

  10. Enhanced water use efficiency in global terrestrial ecosystems under increasing aerosol loadings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lu, Xiaoliang; Chen, Min; Liu, Yaling; Miralles, Diego G.; Wang, Faming

    2017-05-01

    Aerosols play a crucial role in the climate system, affecting incoming radiation and cloud formation. Based on a modelling framework that couples ecosystem processes with the atmospheric transfer of radiation, we analyze the effect of aerosols on surface incoming radiation, gross primary productivity (GPP), water losses from ecosystems through evapotranspiration (ET) and ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE, defined as GPP/ET) for 2003–2010 and validate them at global FLUXNET sites. The total diffuse radiation increases under relatively low or intermediate aerosol loadings, but decreases under more polluted conditions. We find that aerosol-induced changes in GPP depend on leaf area index, aerosol loading and cloudiness. Specifically, low and moderate aerosol loadings cause increases in GPP for all plant types, while heavy aerosol loadings result in enhancement (decrease) in GPP for dense (sparse) vegetation. On the other hand, ET is mainly negatively affected by aerosol loadings due to the reduction in total incoming radiation. Finally, WUE shows a consistent rise in all plant types under increasing aerosol loadings. Overall, the simulated daily WUE compares well with observations at 43 eddy-covariance tower sites (R2=0.84 and RMSE=0.01gC (kg H2O)-1) with better performance at forest sites. In addition to the increasing portions of diffuse light, the rise in WUE is also favored by the reduction in radiation- and heat-stress caused by the aerosols, especially for wet and hot climates.

  11. Increasing water cycle extremes in California and in relation to ENSO cycle under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, Jin-Ho; Wang, S-Y Simon; Gillies, Robert R.; Kravitz, Ben; Hipps, Lawrence; Rasch, Philip J.

    2015-01-01

    Since the winter of 2013–2014, California has experienced its most severe drought in recorded history, causing statewide water stress, severe economic loss and an extraordinary increase in wildfires. Identifying the effects of global warming on regional water cycle extremes, such as the ongoing drought in California, remains a challenge. Here we analyse large-ensemble and multi-model simulations that project the future of water cycle extremes in California as well as to understand those associations that pertain to changing climate oscillations under global warming. Both intense drought and excessive flooding are projected to increase by at least 50% towards the end of the twenty-first century; this projected increase in water cycle extremes is associated with a strengthened relation to El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—in particular, extreme El Niño and La Niña events that modulate California's climate not only through its warm and cold phases but also its precursor patterns. PMID:26487088

  12. Grassland production under global change scenarios for New Zealand pastoral agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, E. D.; Baisden, W. T.; Timar, L.; Mullan, B.; Clark, A.

    2014-10-01

    We adapt and integrate the Biome-BGC and Land Use in Rural New Zealand models to simulate pastoral agriculture and to make land-use change, intensification of agricultural activity and climate change scenario projections of New Zealand's pasture production at time slices centred on 2020, 2050 and 2100, with comparison to a present-day baseline. Biome-BGC model parameters are optimised for pasture production in both dairy and sheep/beef farm systems, representing a new application of the Biome-BGC model. Results show up to a 10% increase in New Zealand's national pasture production in 2020 under intensification and a 1-2% increase by 2050 from economic factors driving land-use change. Climate change scenarios using statistically downscaled global climate models (GCMs) from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report also show national increases of 1-2% in 2050, with significant regional variations. Projected out to 2100, however, these scenarios are more sensitive to the type of pasture system and the severity of warming: dairy systems show an increase in production of 4% under mild change but a decline of 1% under a more extreme case, whereas sheep/beef production declines in both cases by 3 and 13%, respectively. Our results suggest that high-fertility systems such as dairying could be more resilient under future change, with dairy production increasing or only slightly declining in all of our scenarios. These are the first national-scale estimates using a model to evaluate the joint effects of climate change, CO2 fertilisation and N-cycle feedbacks on New Zealand's unique pastoral production systems that dominate the nation's agriculture and economy. Model results emphasise that CO2 fertilisation and N-cycle feedback effects are responsible for meaningful differences in agricultural systems. More broadly, we demonstrate that our model output enables analysis of decoupled land-use change scenarios: the Biome-BGC data products at a national or regional level can be re

  13. Global transcriptional responses of Acidithiobacillus ferrooxidans Wenelen under different sulfide minerals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latorre, Mauricio; Ehrenfeld, Nicole; Cortés, María Paz; Travisany, Dante; Budinich, Marko; Aravena, Andrés; González, Mauricio; Bobadilla-Fazzini, Roberto A; Parada, Pilar; Maass, Alejandro

    2016-01-01

    In order to provide new information about the adaptation of Acidithiobacillus ferrooxidans during the bioleaching process, the current analysis presents the first report of the global transcriptional response of the native copper mine strain Wenelen (DSM 16786) oxidized under different sulfide minerals. Microarrays were used to measure the response of At. ferrooxidans Wenelen to shifts from iron supplemented liquid cultures (reference state) to the addition of solid substrates enriched in pyrite or chalcopyrite. Genes encoding for energy metabolism showed a similar transcriptional profile for the two sulfide minerals. Interestingly, four operons related to sulfur metabolism were over-expressed during growth on a reduced sulfur source. Genes associated with metal tolerance (RND and ATPases type P) were up-regulated in the presence of pyrite or chalcopyrite. These results suggest that At. ferrooxidans Wenelen presents an efficient transcriptional system developed to respond to environmental conditions, namely the ability to withstand high copper concentrations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Crude oil price shocks and stock returns. Evidence from Turkish stock market under global liquidity conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berk, Istemi [Koeln Univ. (Germany). Energiewirtschaftliches Inst.; Aydogan, Berna [Izmir Univ. of Economics (Turkey). Dept. of International Trade and Finance

    2012-09-15

    The purpose of this study is to investigate the impacts of crude oil price variations on the Turkish stock market returns. We have employed vector autoregression (V AR) model using daily observations of Brent crude oil prices and Istanbul Stock Exchange National Index (ISE- 1 00) returns for the period between January 2, 1990 and November 1, 2011. We have also tested the relationship between oil prices and stock market returns under global liquidity conditions by incorporating a liquidity proxy variable, Chicago Board of Exchange's (CBOE) S and P 500 market volatility index (VIX), into the model. Variance decomposition test results suggest little empirical evidence that crude oil price shocks have been rationally evaluated in the Turkish stock market. Rather, it was global liquidity conditions that were found to account for the greatest amount of variation in stock market returns.

  15. Determinants of Environmental Degradation under the Perspective of Globalization: A Panel Analysis of Selected MENA Nations

    OpenAIRE

    Audi, Marc; Ali, Amjad

    2018-01-01

    This paper has examined the determinants of environmental degradation under the perspective of globalization in the case of selected MENA nations (Jordan, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Algeria, Qatar, Lebanon, Egypt, Bahrain, Iran, Morocco, Israel, Kuwait, Oman and Tunisia) over the period of 1980 to 2013. ADF - Fisher Chi-square, Im, Pesaran and Shin W-stat, Levin, Lin & Chu t*, and PP-Fisher Chi-square unit root tests are used for analyzing the stationarity of the variables. This stud...

  16. Longevity of animals under reactive oxygen species stress and disease susceptibility due to global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paital, Biswaranjan; Panda, Sumana Kumari; Hati, Akshaya Kumar; Mohanty, Bobllina; Mohapatra, Manoj Kumar; Kanungo, Shyama; Chainy, Gagan Bihari Nityananda

    2016-02-26

    The world is projected to experience an approximate doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration in the next decades. Rise in atmospheric CO2 level as one of the most important reasons is expected to contribute to raise the mean global temperature 1.4 °C-5.8 °C by that time. A survey from 128 countries speculates that global warming is primarily due to increase in atmospheric CO2 level that is produced mainly by anthropogenic activities. Exposure of animals to high environmental temperatures is mostly accompanied by unwanted acceleration of certain biochemical pathways in their cells. One of such examples is augmentation in generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and subsequent increase in oxidation of lipids, proteins and nucleic acids by ROS. Increase in oxidation of biomolecules leads to a state called as oxidative stress (OS). Finally, the increase in OS condition induces abnormality in physiology of animals under elevated temperature. Exposure of animals to rise in habitat temperature is found to boost the metabolism of animals and a very strong and positive correlation exists between metabolism and levels of ROS and OS. Continuous induction of OS is negatively correlated with survivability and longevity and positively correlated with ageing in animals. Thus, it can be predicted that continuous exposure of animals to acute or gradual rise in habitat temperature due to global warming may induce OS, reduced survivability and longevity in animals in general and poikilotherms in particular. A positive correlation between metabolism and temperature in general and altered O2 consumption at elevated temperature in particular could also increase the risk of experiencing OS in homeotherms. Effects of global warming on longevity of animals through increased risk of protein misfolding and disease susceptibility due to OS as the cause or effects or both also cannot be ignored. Therefore, understanding the physiological impacts of global warming in relation to

  17. Longevity of animals under reactive oxygen species stress and disease susceptibility due to global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paital, Biswaranjan; Panda, Sumana Kumari; Hati, Akshaya Kumar; Mohanty, Bobllina; Mohapatra, Manoj Kumar; Kanungo, Shyama; Chainy, Gagan Bihari Nityananda

    2016-01-01

    The world is projected to experience an approximate doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration in the next decades. Rise in atmospheric CO2 level as one of the most important reasons is expected to contribute to raise the mean global temperature 1.4 °C-5.8 °C by that time. A survey from 128 countries speculates that global warming is primarily due to increase in atmospheric CO2 level that is produced mainly by anthropogenic activities. Exposure of animals to high environmental temperatures is mostly accompanied by unwanted acceleration of certain biochemical pathways in their cells. One of such examples is augmentation in generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and subsequent increase in oxidation of lipids, proteins and nucleic acids by ROS. Increase in oxidation of biomolecules leads to a state called as oxidative stress (OS). Finally, the increase in OS condition induces abnormality in physiology of animals under elevated temperature. Exposure of animals to rise in habitat temperature is found to boost the metabolism of animals and a very strong and positive correlation exists between metabolism and levels of ROS and OS. Continuous induction of OS is negatively correlated with survivability and longevity and positively correlated with ageing in animals. Thus, it can be predicted that continuous exposure of animals to acute or gradual rise in habitat temperature due to global warming may induce OS, reduced survivability and longevity in animals in general and poikilotherms in particular. A positive correlation between metabolism and temperature in general and altered O2 consumption at elevated temperature in particular could also increase the risk of experiencing OS in homeotherms. Effects of global warming on longevity of animals through increased risk of protein misfolding and disease susceptibility due to OS as the cause or effects or both also cannot be ignored. Therefore, understanding the physiological impacts of global warming in relation to

  18. Multimillennium changes in dissolved oxygen under global warming: results from an AOGCM and offline ocean biogeochemical model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamamoto, A.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Shigemitsu, M.; Oka, A.; Takahashi, K.; Ohgaito, R.; Yamanaka, Y.

    2016-12-01

    Long-term oceanic oxygen change due to global warming is still unclear; most future projections (such as CMIP5) are only performed until 2100. Indeed, few previous studies using conceptual models project oxygen change in the next thousands of years, showing persistent global oxygen reduction by about 30% in the next 2000 years, even after atmospheric carbon dioxide stops rising. Yet, these models cannot sufficiently represent the ocean circulation change: the key driver of oxygen change. Moreover, considering serious effect oxygen reduction has on marine life and biogeochemical cycling, long-term oxygen change should be projected for higher validity. Therefore, we used a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) and an offline ocean biogeochemical model, investigating realistic long-term changes in oceanic oxygen concentration and ocean circulation. We integrated these models for 2000 years under atmospheric CO2 doubling and quadrupling. After global oxygen reduction in the first 500 years, oxygen concentration in deep ocean globally recovers and overshoots, despite surface oxygen decrease and weaker Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Deep ocean convection in the Weddell Sea recovers and overshoots, after initial cessation. Thus, enhanced deep convection and associated Antarctic Bottom Water supply oxygen-rich surface waters to deep ocean, resulting global deep ocean oxygenation. We conclude that the change in ocean circulation in the Southern Ocean potentially drives millennial-scale oxygenation in the deep ocean; contrary to past reported long-term oxygen reduction and general expectation. In presentation, we will discuss the mechanism of response of deep ocean convection in the Weddell Sea and show the volume changes of hypoxic waters.

  19. Scenario dependence of future changes in climate extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhili; Lin, Lei; Zhang, Xiaoye; Zhang, Hua; Liu, Liangke; Xu, Yangyang

    2017-04-20

    The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming below 2 °C and pursue efforts to even limit it to 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. Decision makers need reliable information on the impacts caused by these warming levels for climate mitigation and adaptation measures. We explore the changes in climate extremes, which are closely tied to economic losses and casualties, under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming and their scenario dependence using three sets of ensemble global climate model simulations. A warming of 0.5 °C (from 1.5 °C to 2 °C) leads to significant increases in temperature and precipitation extremes in most regions. However, the projected changes in climate extremes under both warming levels highly depend on the pathways of emissions scenarios, with different greenhouse gas (GHG)/aerosol forcing ratio and GHG levels. Moreover, there are multifold differences in several heavily polluted regions, among the scenarios, in the changes in precipitation extremes due to an additional 0.5 °C warming from 1.5 °C to 2 °C. Our results demonstrate that the chemical compositions of emissions scenarios, not just the total radiative forcing and resultant warming level, must be considered when assessing the impacts of global 1.5/2 °C warming.

  20. Going with the flow: the role of ocean circulation in global marine ecosystems under a changing climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Gennip, Simon J; Popova, Ekaterina E; Yool, Andrew; Pecl, Gretta T; Hobday, Alistair J; Sorte, Cascade J B

    2017-07-01

    Ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation and reduced productivity are widely considered to be the major stressors to ocean ecosystems induced by emissions of CO 2 . However, an overlooked stressor is the change in ocean circulation in response to climate change. Strong changes in the intensity and position of the western boundary currents have already been observed, and the consequences of such changes for ecosystems are beginning to emerge. In this study, we address climatically induced changes in ocean circulation on a global scale but relevant to propagule dispersal for species inhabiting global shelf ecosystems, using a high-resolution global ocean model run under the IPCC RCP 8.5 scenario. The ¼ degree model resolution allows improved regional realism of the ocean circulation beyond that of available CMIP5-class models. We use a Lagrangian approach forced by modelled ocean circulation to simulate the circulation pathways that disperse planktonic life stages. Based on trajectory backtracking, we identify present-day coastal retention, dominant flow and dispersal range for coastal regions at the global scale. Projecting into the future, we identify areas of the strongest projected circulation change and present regional examples with the most significant modifications in their dominant pathways. Climatically induced changes in ocean circulation should be considered as an additional stressor of marine ecosystems in a similar way to ocean warming or acidification. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. Khakasses under the conditions of globalization: mental deformations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Larisa V. Anzhiganova

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The article analyzes the deformations in the mentality of the Khakas, a Turkic-speaking ethnos of South Siberia. The authors understand mentality as an internally consistent mode of a people’s existence for the sake of survival of the ethnos as a whole by means of organizing knowledge into an ethnic worldview; through the creation of a stable hierarchy of ethnically articulated needs, interests and values; through a system of auto- and heterostereotypes; and by developing sustainable forms of behavior in various situations. Due to both external and internal impact, the mentality, a historically stable phenomenon, can suffer deformations. We understand these as a change in the basic elements of the mentality (needs, interests, values leading to reversible or irreversible transformations for the people. To document the mental deformations among the Khakass, the article compares traditional ethnic values with modern ones. The comparison makes use of two studies of values: an interdisciplinary study of the traditional outlook of the ethnos conducted in mid-1990s, an a sociological survey held in 2015. The analysis revealed that the hierarchy of basic traditional values, such as "native land", "Khakass people", "family" preserves its importance for ethnic actors as a resource for the preservation and development of the ethnos even under the conditions of globalization. However, the sociological survey recorded a change in the configuration of the entire value system among the Khakass people. “Family" as a value moves upfront, which follows the general historical pattern: an ethnos in a state of crisis returns to the basic, time-tested social institutions (family, clan. The latter are called upon to preserve the ethnos as a biopsychosocial community.

  2. Global assessment of water policy vulnerability under uncertainty in water scarcity projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greve, Peter; Kahil, Taher; Satoh, Yusuke; Burek, Peter; Fischer, Günther; Tramberend, Sylvia; Byers, Edward; Flörke, Martina; Eisner, Stephanie; Hanasaki, Naota; Langan, Simon; Wada, Yoshihide

    2017-04-01

    Water scarcity is a critical environmental issue worldwide, which has been driven by the significant increase in water extractions during the last century. In the coming decades, climate change is projected to further exacerbate water scarcity conditions in many regions around the world. At present, one important question for policy debate is the identification of water policy interventions that could address the mounting water scarcity problems. Main interventions include investing in water storage infrastructures, water transfer canals, efficient irrigation systems, and desalination plants, among many others. This type of interventions involve long-term planning, long-lived investments and some irreversibility in choices which can shape development of countries for decades. Making decisions on these water infrastructures requires anticipating the long term environmental conditions, needs and constraints under which they will function. This brings large uncertainty in the decision-making process, for instance from demographic or economic projections. But today, climate change is bringing another layer of uncertainty that make decisions even more complex. In this study, we assess in a probabilistic approach the uncertainty in global water scarcity projections following different socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and climate scenarios (RCPs) within the first half of the 21st century. By utilizing an ensemble of 45 future water scarcity projections based on (i) three state-of-the-art global hydrological models (PCR-GLOBWB, H08, and WaterGAP), (ii) five climate models, and (iii) three water scenarios, we have assessed changes in water scarcity and the associated uncertainty distribution worldwide. The water scenarios used here are developed by IIASA's Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) Initiative. The main objective of this study is to improve the contribution of hydro-climatic information to effective policymaking by identifying spatial and temporal policy

  3. Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, John B.; Monier, Erwan; Sohngen, Brent; Pitts, G. Stephen; Drapek, Ray; McFarland, James; Ohrel, Sara; Cole, Jefferson

    2017-04-01

    We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomes of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.

  4. SOME ASPECTS OF THE CONSERVATION OF THE CULTURAL HERITAGE OF DAGESTAN REPUBLIC UNDER GLOBALIZATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. N. Nabieva

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim. Problems of preservation of cultural and natural heritage in the era of globalization, acquiring intensi-ty and penetration in various spheres of human activity in recent decades, are particularly relevant. Republic of Da-gestan is a multi-ethnic region located at the crossroads of world cultures and passed a difficult path of political, so-cio-economic and cultural development. The loss of the heritage can be attributed to one of social disasters, and in its consequences can be compared to the natural disasters on the planet. In this connection, the main aim is to develop proposals for the preservation and use of cultural and natural heritage of the Republic of Dagestan under globalization, a problem that sounds very relevant today. Methods. We used an analytical method to study the problem, based on the study of the scientific sources on heritage conservation in the context of globalization. In addition, we followed the methodology developed by the Russian Research Institute for Cultural and Natural Heritage. Results. In the article we make suggestions that will contribute to the conservation and utilization of cultural and natural heritage of the Republic of Dagestan in the context of globalization. The main task today is to develop the following: 1 long-term strategic policy document for justification of national policies in the field of protection and use of cultural and natural heritage; 2 draft law on measures of state support for the preservation of cultural heritage and heritage man-agement; 3 the priority list of the most endangered and valuable objects of cultural, historical and natural heritage. Conclusions. At the state level, a concept should be developed of preservation of the natural and historical envi-ronment of ethnic groups, ways of life and traditional forms of management, including the creation of socio-cultural programs aimed at improving the living conditions of the indigenous population, the study of its language

  5. Letters in the Forest: Global precedence effect disappears for letters but not for non-letters under reading-like conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas eLachmann

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Normally-skilled reading involves special processing strategies for letters, which are habitually funneled into an abstract letter code. On the basis of previous studies we argue that this habit leads to the preferred usage of an analytic strategy for the processing of letters, while non-letters are preferably processed via a holistic strategy. The well-known Global Precedence Effect (GPE seems to contradict to this assumption, since, with compound, hierarchical figures, including letter items, faster responses are observed to the global than to the local level of the figure, as well as an asymmetric interference effect from global to local level. We argue that with letters these effects depend on presentation conditions; only when they elicit the processing strategies automatized for reading, an analytic strategy for letters in contrast to non-letters is to be expected. We compared the GPE for letters and non-letters in central viewing, with the global stimulus size close to the functional visual field in whole word reading (6.5o of visual angle and local stimuli close to the critical size for fluent reading of individual letters (.5o of visual angle. Under these conditions, the GPE remained robust for non-letters. For letters, however, it disappeared: letters showed no overall response time advantage for the global level and symmetric congruence effects (local-to-global as well as global-to local interference. We interpret these results as according to the view that reading is based on resident analytic visual processing strategies for letters.

  6. Economic Globalization - a Phenomenon of Global Business Integration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radu-Marcel Joia

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Tumultuous economic life led scientists to seek explanations to the negative economic events,events that take many forms, and to whom it is a must to find a solution or even a mitigating factor. Thefoundation of the economy has undergone many changes. The recent events manifested in the world economyshow that the underlying fundamentals of this science must be revised because they proved to be wrong. Itnotes several times, mainly due to present economic crisis, that currently the economics have no theoreticaland practical means and no tools of analysis and intervention in the economy, proving that the existing onesare exceeded and insufficient, so that the creation of an unifying principle and of some generalizing conceptsthat could systematize and forecast the current economic phenomena in the microeconomics andmacroeconomics, especially in the transnational companies field, those which are the base of the foreigndirect investment flows, should become the main objective of the new economic science. Through this paper,we tried to illustrate the important aspects of economic globalization, the challenges that this phenomenonposes to economies and the way in which an economy can become globally competitive, under massiveconstraints of the global competition, how a national company can become globally integrated, study basedon representative references.

  7. Global Sensitivity of Simulated Water Balance Indicators Under Future Climate Change in the Colorado Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, Katrina E.; Urrego Blanco, Jorge R.; Jonko, Alexandra; Bohn, Theodore J.; Atchley, Adam L.; Urban, Nathan M.; Middleton, Richard S.

    2018-01-01

    The Colorado River Basin is a fundamentally important river for society, ecology, and energy in the United States. Streamflow estimates are often provided using modeling tools which rely on uncertain parameters; sensitivity analysis can help determine which parameters impact model results. Despite the fact that simulated flows respond to changing climate and vegetation in the basin, parameter sensitivity of the simulations under climate change has rarely been considered. In this study, we conduct a global sensitivity analysis to relate changes in runoff, evapotranspiration, snow water equivalent, and soil moisture to model parameters in the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. We combine global sensitivity analysis with a space-filling Latin Hypercube Sampling of the model parameter space and statistical emulation of the VIC model to examine sensitivities to uncertainties in 46 model parameters following a variance-based approach. We find that snow-dominated regions are much more sensitive to uncertainties in VIC parameters. Although baseflow and runoff changes respond to parameters used in previous sensitivity studies, we discover new key parameter sensitivities. For instance, changes in runoff and evapotranspiration are sensitive to albedo, while changes in snow water equivalent are sensitive to canopy fraction and Leaf Area Index (LAI) in the VIC model. It is critical for improved modeling to narrow uncertainty in these parameters through improved observations and field studies. This is important because LAI and albedo are anticipated to change under future climate and narrowing uncertainty is paramount to advance our application of models such as VIC for water resource management.

  8. Prospects of Russian Agriculture development under global climate and technological changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valentini, Riccardo; Vasenev, Ivan

    2015-04-01

    crop yields (about 20% in a decade, IPCC 2014), some regions in the world, particularly boreal ones, will benefit from temperature warming due to an increasing of growing season length and mild climate conditions. Several crops not usually suited for growing in northern latitude region will find here favorable conditions and potentially new economic opportunities will rise. Under new climate scenarios we discuss the potential for Russia to expand its agro-food sector and becoming a new important player of future global food supply. We analyze regional climate scenarios at high spatial resolution (8km) and project in the current century the new distribution of agro-ecological zones with the implication of new crops expansion. We also discuss limitation of water supply which may derive from increased evapotranspiration and water demands for irrigation. A final discussion is about the technological challenges and transformation needed in the Russian agricultural sector to take this opportunity. The question is about available technologies, barriers to implement innovation, financial instruments to prevent climate risks and moreover the required agriculture transformation to prevent environmental impacts of agriculture intensification.

  9. Thermophilic Fungi to Dominate Aflatoxigenic/Mycotoxigenic Fungi on Food under Global Warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paterson, Robert Russell M; Lima, Nelson

    2017-02-17

    Certain filamentous fungi produce mycotoxins that contaminate food. Mycotoxin contamination of crops is highly influenced by environmental conditions and is already affected by global warming, where there is a succession of mycotoxigenic fungi towards those that have higher optimal growth temperatures. Aflatoxigenic fungi are at the highest limit of temperature although predicted increases in temperature are beyond that constraint. The present paper discusses what will succeed these fungi and represents the first such consideration. Aflatoxins are the most important mycotoxins and are common in tropical produce, much of which is exported to temperate regions. Hot countries may produce safer food under climate change because aflatoxigenic fungi will be inhibited. The same situation will occur in previously temperate regions where these fungi have recently appeared, although decades later. Existing thermotolerant and thermophilic fungi (TTF) will dominate, in contrast to the conventional mycotoxigenic fungi adapting or mutating, as it will be quicker. TTF produce a range of secondary metabolites, or potential mycotoxins and patulin which may become a new threat. In addition, Aspergillus fumigatus will appear more frequently, a serious human pathogen, because it is (a) thermotolerant and (b) present on crops: hence this is an even greater problem. An incubation temperature of 41 °C needs employing forthwith to detect TTF. Finally, TTF in crops requires study because of the potential for diseases in humans and animals under climate change.

  10. Increasing Potential Risk of a Global Aquatic Invader in Europe in Contrast to Other Continents under Future Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xuan; Guo, Zhongwei; Ke, Zunwei; Wang, Supen; Li, Yiming

    2011-01-01

    Background Anthropogenically-induced climate change can alter the current climatic habitat of non-native species and can have complex effects on potentially invasive species. Predictions of the potential distributions of invasive species under climate change will provide critical information for future conservation and management strategies. Aquatic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to invasive species and climate change, but the effect of climate change on invasive species distributions has been rather neglected, especially for notorious global invaders. Methodology/Principal Findings We used ecological niche models (ENMs) to assess the risks and opportunities that climate change presents for the red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii), which is a worldwide aquatic invasive species. Linking the factors of climate, topography, habitat and human influence, we developed predictive models incorporating both native and non-native distribution data of the crayfish to identify present areas of potential distribution and project the effects of future climate change based on a consensus-forecast approach combining the CCCMA and HADCM3 climate models under two emission scenarios (A2a and B2a) by 2050. The minimum temperature from the coldest month, the human footprint and precipitation of the driest quarter contributed most to the species distribution models. Under both the A2a and B2a scenarios, P. clarkii shifted to higher latitudes in continents of both the northern and southern hemispheres. However, the effect of climate change varied considerately among continents with an expanding potential in Europe and contracting changes in others. Conclusions/Significance Our findings are the first to predict the impact of climate change on the future distribution of a globally invasive aquatic species. We confirmed the complexities of the likely effects of climate change on the potential distribution of globally invasive species, and it is extremely important to develop

  11. A possible explanation for the divergent projection of ENSO amplitude change under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lin; Li, Tim; Yu, Yongqiang; Behera, Swadhin K.

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the greatest climate variability on interannual time scale, yet what controls ENSO amplitude changes under global warming (GW) is uncertain. Here we show that the fundamental factor that controls the divergent projections of ENSO amplitude change within 20 coupled general circulation models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-5 is the change of climatologic mean Pacific subtropical cell (STC), whose strength determines the meridional structure of ENSO perturbations and thus the anomalous thermocline response to the wind forcing. The change of the thermocline response is a key factor regulating the strength of Bjerknes thermocline and zonal advective feedbacks, which ultimately lead to the divergent changes in ENSO amplitude. Furthermore, by forcing an ocean general circulation mode with the change of zonal mean zonal wind stress estimated by a simple theoretical model, a weakening of the STC in future is obtained. Such a change implies that ENSO variability might strengthen under GW, which could have a profound socio-economic consequence.

  12. Scenario dependence of future changes in climate extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhili; Lin, Lei; Zhang, Xiaoye; Zhang, Hua; Liu, Liangke; Xu, Yangyang

    2017-01-01

    The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming below 2 °C and pursue efforts to even limit it to 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. Decision makers need reliable information on the impacts caused by these warming levels for climate mitigation and adaptation measures. We explore the changes in climate extremes, which are closely tied to economic losses and casualties, under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming and their scenario dependence using three sets of ensemble global climate model simulations. A warming of 0.5 °C (from 1.5 °C to 2 °C) leads to significant increases in temperature and precipitation extremes in most regions. However, the projected changes in climate extremes under both warming levels highly depend on the pathways of emissions scenarios, with different greenhouse gas (GHG)/aerosol forcing ratio and GHG levels. Moreover, there are multifold differences in several heavily polluted regions, among the scenarios, in the changes in precipitation extremes due to an additional 0.5 °C warming from 1.5 °C to 2 °C. Our results demonstrate that the chemical compositions of emissions scenarios, not just the total radiative forcing and resultant warming level, must be considered when assessing the impacts of global 1.5/2 °C warming. PMID:28425445

  13. Impacts on quality-induced water scarcity: drivers of nitrogen-related water pollution transfer under globalization from 1995 to 2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Liyang; Cai, Wenjia; Jiang, Yongkai; Wang, Can

    2016-07-01

    Globalization enables the transfer of impacts on water availability. We argue that the threat should be evaluated not only by decrease of quantity, but more importantly by the degradation of water quality in exporting countries. Grouping the world into fourteen regions, this paper establishes a multi-region input-output framework to calculate the nitrogen-related grey water footprint and a water quality-induced scarcity index caused by pollution, for the period of 1995 to 2009. It is discovered that grey water embodied in international trade has been growing faster than total grey water footprint. China, the USA and India were the three top grey water exporters which accounted for more than half the total traded grey water. Dilemma rose when China and India were facing highest grey water scarcity. The EU and the USA were biggest grey water importers that alleviated their water stress by outsourcing water pollution. A structural decomposition analysis is conducted to study the drivers to the evolution of virtual flows of grey water under globalization during the period of 1995 to 2009. The results show that despite the technical progress that offset the growth of traded grey water, structural effects under globalization including both evolution in the globalized economic system and consumption structure, together with consumption volume made a positive contribution. It is found that the structural effect intensified the pollution-induced water scarcity of exporters as it generally increased all nations’ imported grey water while resulting in increases in only a few nations’ exported grey water, such as Brazil, China and Indonesia. At last, drawing from the ‘cap-and-trade’ and ‘boarder-tax-adjustment’ schemes, we propose policy recommendations that ensure water security and achieve environmentally sustainable trade from both the sides of production and consumption.

  14. Drylands face potential threat under 2 °C global warming target

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Jianping; Yu, Haipeng; Dai, Aiguo; Wei, Yun; Kang, Litai

    2017-06-01

    The Paris Agreement aims to limit global mean surface warming to less than 2 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. However, we show this target is acceptable only for humid lands, whereas drylands will bear greater warming risks. Over the past century, surface warming over global drylands (1.2-1.3 °C) has been 20-40% higher than that over humid lands (0.8-1.0 °C), while anthropogenic CO2 emissions generated from drylands (~230 Gt) have been only ~30% of those generated from humid lands (~750 Gt). For the twenty-first century, warming of 3.2-4.0 °C (2.4-2.6 °C) over drylands (humid lands) could occur when global warming reaches 2.0 °C, indicating ~44% more warming over drylands than humid lands. Decreased maize yields and runoff, increased long-lasting drought and more favourable conditions for malaria transmission are greatest over drylands if global warming were to rise from 1.5 °C to 2.0 °C. Our analyses indicate that ~38% of the world's population living in drylands would suffer the effects of climate change due to emissions primarily from humid lands. If the 1.5 °C warming limit were attained, the mean warming over drylands could be within 3.0 °C therefore it is necessary to keep global warming within 1.5 °C to prevent disastrous effects over drylands.

  15. Marine ecosystems in alteration under global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prestrud, Paal

    2004-01-01

    It is commonly thought among fishermen, researchers and in the fishing industries that the administration and harvesting of the fish resources is more important for the stock of fish than are changes in the climate. However, many scientific investigations now link changes in temperature with changes in the spreading, survival and beginning of life processes. There is solid evidence that there are important changes in progress in the North Atlantic marine ecosystem caused by global warming. If the heating of the water masses continues, it will probably have a large impact on the ocean's productivity and consequently for the fishing industry

  16. Species as Stressors: Heterospecific Interactions and the Cellular Stress Response under Global Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunderson, Alex R; King, Emily E; Boyer, Kirsten; Tsukimura, Brian; Stillman, Jonathon H

    2017-07-01

    Anthropogenic global change is predicted to increase the physiological stress of organisms through changes in abiotic conditions such as temperature, pH, and pollution. However, organisms can also experience physiological stress through interactions with other species, especially parasites, predators, and competitors. The stress of species interactions could be an important driver of species' responses to global change as the composition of biological communities change through factors such as distributional and phenological shifts. Interactions between biotic and abiotic stressors could also induce non-linear physiological stress responses under global change. One of the primary means by which organisms deal with physiological stress is through the cellular stress response (CSR), which is broadly the upregulation of a conserved set of genes that facilitate the removal and repair of damaged macromolecules. Here, we present data on behavioral interactions and CSR gene expression for two competing species of intertidal zone porcelain crab (Petrolisthes cinctipes and Petrolisthes manimaculis). We found that P. cinctipes and P. manimaculis engage in more agonistic behaviors when interacting with heterospecifics than conspecifics; however, we found no evidence that heterospecific interactions induced a CSR in these species. In addition to our new data, we review the literature with respect to CSR induction via species interactions, focusing on predator-prey systems and heterospecific competition. We find extensive evidence for predators to induce cellular stress and aspects of the CSR in prey, even in the absence of direct physical contact between species. Effects of heterospecific competition on the CSR have been studied far less, but we do find evidence that agonistic interactions with heterospecifics can induce components of the CSR. Across all published studies, there is clear evidence that species interactions can lead to cellular stress and induction of the CSR

  17. Big moving day for biodiversity? A macroecological assessment of the scope for assisted colonization as a conservation strategy under global warming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svenning, J.-C.; Fløjgaard, Camilla; Morueta-Holme, Naia

    2009-01-01

    to corresponding losses locally. Our results suggest that there is substantial room for additional plant species across most areas of Europe, indicating that there is considerable scope for implementing assisted colonization as a proactive conservation strategy under global warming without necessarily implicating...

  18. How do persistent organic pollutants be coupled with biogeochemical cycles of carbon and nutrients in terrestrial ecosystems under global climate change?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Teng, Ying [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing (China). Key Lab. of Soil Environment and Pollution Remediation; Griffith Univ., Nathan, QLD (Australia). Environmetnal Futures Centre and School of Biomolecular and Physical Sciences; Xu, Zhihong; Reverchon, Frederique [Griffith Univ., Nathan, QLD (Australia). Environmetnal Futures Centre and School of Biomolecular and Physical Sciences; Luo, Yongming [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing (China). Key Lab. of Soil Environment and Pollution Remediation

    2012-03-15

    Global climate change (GCC), especially global warming, has affected the material cycling (e.g., carbon, nutrients, and organic chemicals) and the energy flows of terrestrial ecosystems. Persistent organic pollutants (POPs) were regarded as anthropogenic organic carbon (OC) source, and be coupled with the natural carbon (C) and nutrient biogeochemical cycling in ecosystems. The objective of this work was to review the current literature and explore potential coupling processes and mechanisms between POPs and biogeochemical cycles of C and nutrients in terrestrial ecosystems induced by global warming. Global warming has caused many physical, chemical, and biological changes in terrestrial ecosystems. POPs environmental fate in these ecosystems is controlled mainly by temperature and biogeochemical processes. Global warming may accelerate the re-emissions and redistribution of POPs among environmental compartments via soil-air exchange. Soil-air exchange is a key process controlling the fate and transportation of POPs and terrestrial ecosystem C at regional and global scales. Soil respiration is one of the largest terrestrial C flux induced by microbe and plant metabolism, which can affect POPs biotransformation in terrestrial ecosystems. Carbon flow through food web structure also may have important consequences for the biomagnification of POPs in the ecosystems and further lead to biodiversity loss induced by climate change and POPs pollution stress. Moreover, the integrated techniques and biological adaptation strategy help to fully explore the coupling mechanisms, functioning and trends of POPs and C and nutrient biogeochemical cycling processes in terrestrial ecosystems. There is increasing evidence that the environmental fate of POPs has been linked with biogeochemical cycles of C and nutrients in terrestrial ecosystems under GCC. However, the relationships between POPs and the biogeochemical cycles of C and nutrients are still not well understood. Further

  19. Land–atmosphere feedbacks amplify aridity increase over land under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, Alexis; Findell, Kirsten; Lintner, Benjamin; Giannini, Alessandra; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; van den Hurk, Bart; Lorenz, Ruth; Pitman, Andy; Hagemann, Stefan; Meier, Arndt; Cheruy, Frédérique; Ducharne, Agnès; Malyshev, Sergey; Milly, Paul C. D.

    2016-01-01

    The response of the terrestrial water cycle to global warming is central to issues including water resources, agriculture and ecosystem health. Recent studies indicate that aridity, defined in terms of atmospheric supply (precipitation, P) and demand (potential evapotranspiration, Ep) of water at the land surface, will increase globally in a warmer world. Recently proposed mechanisms for this response emphasize the driving role of oceanic warming and associated atmospheric processes. Here we show that the aridity response is substantially amplified by land–atmosphere feedbacks associated with the land surface’s response to climate and CO2 change. Using simulations from the Global Land Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE)-CMIP5 experiment, we show that global aridity is enhanced by the feedbacks of projected soil moisture decrease on land surface temperature, relative humidity and precipitation. The physiological impact of increasing atmospheric CO2 on vegetation exerts a qualitatively similar control on aridity. We reconcile these findings with previously proposed mechanisms by showing that the moist enthalpy change over land is unaffected by the land hydrological response. Thus, although oceanic warming constrains the combined moisture and temperature changes over land, land hydrology modulates the partitioning of this enthalpy increase towards increased aridity.

  20. Global burden of sickle cell anaemia in children under five, 2010-2050: modelling based on demographics, excess mortality, and interventions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frédéric B Piel

    Full Text Available The global burden of sickle cell anaemia (SCA is set to rise as a consequence of improved survival in high-prevalence low- and middle-income countries and population migration to higher-income countries. The host of quantitative evidence documenting these changes has not been assembled at the global level. The purpose of this study is to estimate trends in the future number of newborns with SCA and the number of lives that could be saved in under-five children with SCA by the implementation of different levels of health interventions.First, we calculated projected numbers of newborns with SCA for each 5-y interval between 2010 and 2050 by combining estimates of national SCA frequencies with projected demographic data. We then accounted for under-five mortality (U5m projections and tested different levels of excess mortality for children with SCA, reflecting the benefits of implementing specific health interventions for under-five patients in 2015, to assess the number of lives that could be saved with appropriate health care services. The estimated number of newborns with SCA globally will increase from 305,800 (confidence interval [CI]: 238,400-398,800 in 2010 to 404,200 (CI: 242,500-657,600 in 2050. It is likely that Nigeria (2010: 91,000 newborns with SCA [CI: 77,900-106,100]; 2050: 140,800 [CI: 95,500-200,600] and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (2010: 39,700 [CI: 32,600-48,800]; 2050: 44,700 [CI: 27,100-70,500] will remain the countries most in need of policies for the prevention and management of SCA. We predict a decrease in the annual number of newborns with SCA in India (2010: 44,400 [CI: 33,700-59,100]; 2050: 33,900 [CI: 15,900-64,700]. The implementation of basic health interventions (e.g., prenatal diagnosis, penicillin prophylaxis, and vaccination for SCA in 2015, leading to significant reductions in excess mortality among under-five children with SCA, could, by 2050, prolong the lives of 5,302,900 [CI: 3

  1. Global burden of sickle cell anaemia in children under five, 2010-2050: modelling based on demographics, excess mortality, and interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piel, Frédéric B; Hay, Simon I; Gupta, Sunetra; Weatherall, David J; Williams, Thomas N

    2013-01-01

    The global burden of sickle cell anaemia (SCA) is set to rise as a consequence of improved survival in high-prevalence low- and middle-income countries and population migration to higher-income countries. The host of quantitative evidence documenting these changes has not been assembled at the global level. The purpose of this study is to estimate trends in the future number of newborns with SCA and the number of lives that could be saved in under-five children with SCA by the implementation of different levels of health interventions. First, we calculated projected numbers of newborns with SCA for each 5-y interval between 2010 and 2050 by combining estimates of national SCA frequencies with projected demographic data. We then accounted for under-five mortality (U5m) projections and tested different levels of excess mortality for children with SCA, reflecting the benefits of implementing specific health interventions for under-five patients in 2015, to assess the number of lives that could be saved with appropriate health care services. The estimated number of newborns with SCA globally will increase from 305,800 (confidence interval [CI]: 238,400-398,800) in 2010 to 404,200 (CI: 242,500-657,600) in 2050. It is likely that Nigeria (2010: 91,000 newborns with SCA [CI: 77,900-106,100]; 2050: 140,800 [CI: 95,500-200,600]) and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (2010: 39,700 [CI: 32,600-48,800]; 2050: 44,700 [CI: 27,100-70,500]) will remain the countries most in need of policies for the prevention and management of SCA. We predict a decrease in the annual number of newborns with SCA in India (2010: 44,400 [CI: 33,700-59,100]; 2050: 33,900 [CI: 15,900-64,700]). The implementation of basic health interventions (e.g., prenatal diagnosis, penicillin prophylaxis, and vaccination) for SCA in 2015, leading to significant reductions in excess mortality among under-five children with SCA, could, by 2050, prolong the lives of 5,302,900 [CI: 3,174,800-6,699,100] newborns with

  2. Hospital non-price competition under the Global Budget Payment and Prospective Payment Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Wen-Yi; Lin, Yu-Hui

    2008-06-01

    This paper provides theoretical analyses of two alternative hospital payment systems for controlling medical cost: the Global Budget Payment System (GBPS) and the Prospective Payment System (PPS). The former method assigns a fixed total budget for all healthcare services over a given period with hospitals being paid on a fee-for-service basis. The latter method is usually connected with a fixed payment to hospitals within a Diagnosis-Related Group. Our results demonstrate that, given the same expenditure, the GBPS would approach optimal levels of quality and efficiency as well as the level of social welfare provided by the PPS, as long as market competition is sufficiently high; our results also demonstrate that the treadmill effect, modeling an inverse relationship between price and quantity under the GBPS, would be a quality-enhancing and efficiency-improving outcome due to market competition.

  3. Homogenized global nonlinear constitutive model for RC panels under cyclic loadings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huguet, Miquel; Voldoire, Francois; Kotronis, Panagiotis; Erlicher, Silvano

    2014-01-01

    A new nonlinear stress resultant global constitutive model for RC panels is presented. Concrete damage, concrete stress transfer at cracks and bond-slip stress are the main nonlinear effects identified at the local scale that constitute the basis for the construction of the stress resultant global model through an analytical homogenization technique. The closed form solution is obtained using general functions for the previous phenomena. (authors)

  4. Transparency Under Scrutiny: Information Disclosure in Global Environmental Governance.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gupta, A.

    2008-01-01

    Although transparency is a key concept of our times, it remains a relatively understudied phenomenon in global environmental politics. The link between transparency and accountable, legitimate and effective governance is assumed, yet the nature and workings of this link require further scrutiny.

  5. Mitigating global warming potentials of methane and nitrous oxide gases from rice paddies under different irrigation regimes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, Muhammad Aslam; Hoque, M Anamul; Kim, Pil Joo

    2013-04-01

    A field experiment was conducted in Bangladesh Agricultural University Farm to investigate the mitigating effects of soil amendments such as calcium carbide, calcium silicate, phosphogypsum, and biochar with urea fertilizer on global warming potentials (GWPs) of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) gases during rice cultivation under continuous and intermittent irrigations. Among the amendments phosphogypsum and silicate fertilizer, being potential source of electron acceptors, decreased maximum level of seasonal CH4 flux by 25-27 % and 32-38 % in continuous and intermittent irrigations, respectively. Biochar and calcium carbide amendments, acting as nitrification inhibitors, decreased N2O emissions by 36-40 % and 26-30 % under continuous and intermittent irrigations, respectively. The total GWP of CH4 and N2O gases were decreased by 7-27 % and 6-34 % with calcium carbide, phosphogypsum, and silicate fertilizer amendments under continuous and intermittent irrigations, respectively. However, biochar amendments increased overall GWP of CH4 and N2O gases.

  6. Global EiBI-monopole

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JIN Xinghua

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available A global EiBI-monopole problem is studied under EiBI gravitational theory.The equations of global EiBI-monopole are derived in the curved spacetime and the relation between the spacetime metric and auxiliary metric is found.In the case of a very small parameter,an asymptotic form of equations is given.The series solutions of global EiBI-monopole at infinity are found.

  7. Thermophilic Fungi to Dominate Aflatoxigenic/Mycotoxigenic Fungi on Food under Global Warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Russell M. Paterson

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Certain filamentous fungi produce mycotoxins that contaminate food. Mycotoxin contamination of crops is highly influenced by environmental conditions and is already affected by global warming, where there is a succession of mycotoxigenic fungi towards those that have higher optimal growth temperatures. Aflatoxigenic fungi are at the highest limit of temperature although predicted increases in temperature are beyond that constraint. The present paper discusses what will succeed these fungi and represents the first such consideration. Aflatoxins are the most important mycotoxins and are common in tropical produce, much of which is exported to temperate regions. Hot countries may produce safer food under climate change because aflatoxigenic fungi will be inhibited. The same situation will occur in previously temperate regions where these fungi have recently appeared, although decades later. Existing thermotolerant and thermophilic fungi (TTF will dominate, in contrast to the conventional mycotoxigenic fungi adapting or mutating, as it will be quicker. TTF produce a range of secondary metabolites, or potential mycotoxins and patulin which may become a new threat. In addition, Aspergillus fumigatus will appear more frequently, a serious human pathogen, because it is (a thermotolerant and (b present on crops: hence this is an even greater problem. An incubation temperature of 41 °C needs employing forthwith to detect TTF. Finally, TTF in crops requires study because of the potential for diseases in humans and animals under climate change.

  8. Under the (legal radar screen: global health initiatives and international human rights obligations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hammonds Rachel

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Given that many low income countries are heavily reliant on external assistance to fund their health sectors the acceptance of obligations of international assistance and cooperation with regard to the right to health (global health obligations is insufficiently understood and studied by international health and human rights scholars. Over the past decade Global Health Initiatives, like the Global Fund to fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (Global Fund have adopted novel approaches to engaging with stakeholders in high and low income countries. This article explores how this experience impacted on acceptance of the international obligation to (help fulfil the right to health beyond borders. Methods The authors conducted an extensive review of international human rights law literature, transnational legal process literature, global public health literature and grey literature pertaining to Global Health Initiatives. To complement this desk work and deepen their understanding of how and why different legal norms evolve the authors conducted 19 in-depth key informant interviews with actors engaged with three stakeholders; the European Union, the United States and Belgium. The authors then analysed the interviews through a transnational legal process lens. Results Through according value to the process of examining how and why different legal norms evolve transnational legal process offers us a tool for engaging with the dynamism of developments in global health suggesting that operationalising global health obligations could advance the right to health for all. Conclusions In many low-income countries the health sector is heavily dependent on external assistance to fulfil the right to health of people thus it is vital that policies and tools for delivering reliable, long-term assistance are developed so that the right to health for all becomes more than a dream. Our research suggests that the Global Fund experience offers

  9. Under the (legal) radar screen: global health initiatives and international human rights obligations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background Given that many low income countries are heavily reliant on external assistance to fund their health sectors the acceptance of obligations of international assistance and cooperation with regard to the right to health (global health obligations) is insufficiently understood and studied by international health and human rights scholars. Over the past decade Global Health Initiatives, like the Global Fund to fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (Global Fund) have adopted novel approaches to engaging with stakeholders in high and low income countries. This article explores how this experience impacted on acceptance of the international obligation to (help) fulfil the right to health beyond borders. Methods The authors conducted an extensive review of international human rights law literature, transnational legal process literature, global public health literature and grey literature pertaining to Global Health Initiatives. To complement this desk work and deepen their understanding of how and why different legal norms evolve the authors conducted 19 in-depth key informant interviews with actors engaged with three stakeholders; the European Union, the United States and Belgium. The authors then analysed the interviews through a transnational legal process lens. Results Through according value to the process of examining how and why different legal norms evolve transnational legal process offers us a tool for engaging with the dynamism of developments in global health suggesting that operationalising global health obligations could advance the right to health for all. Conclusions In many low-income countries the health sector is heavily dependent on external assistance to fulfil the right to health of people thus it is vital that policies and tools for delivering reliable, long-term assistance are developed so that the right to health for all becomes more than a dream. Our research suggests that the Global Fund experience offers lessons to build on. PMID

  10. Under the (legal) radar screen: global health initiatives and international human rights obligations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammonds, Rachel; Ooms, Gorik; Vandenhole, Wouter

    2012-11-15

    Given that many low income countries are heavily reliant on external assistance to fund their health sectors the acceptance of obligations of international assistance and cooperation with regard to the right to health (global health obligations) is insufficiently understood and studied by international health and human rights scholars. Over the past decade Global Health Initiatives, like the Global Fund to fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (Global Fund) have adopted novel approaches to engaging with stakeholders in high and low income countries. This article explores how this experience impacted on acceptance of the international obligation to (help) fulfil the right to health beyond borders. The authors conducted an extensive review of international human rights law literature, transnational legal process literature, global public health literature and grey literature pertaining to Global Health Initiatives. To complement this desk work and deepen their understanding of how and why different legal norms evolve the authors conducted 19 in-depth key informant interviews with actors engaged with three stakeholders; the European Union, the United States and Belgium. The authors then analysed the interviews through a transnational legal process lens. Through according value to the process of examining how and why different legal norms evolve transnational legal process offers us a tool for engaging with the dynamism of developments in global health suggesting that operationalising global health obligations could advance the right to health for all. In many low-income countries the health sector is heavily dependent on external assistance to fulfil the right to health of people thus it is vital that policies and tools for delivering reliable, long-term assistance are developed so that the right to health for all becomes more than a dream. Our research suggests that the Global Fund experience offers lessons to build on.

  11. Water vapor changes under global warming and the linkage to present-day interannual variabilities in CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takahashi, Hanii; Su, Hui; Jiang, Jonathan H.

    2016-12-01

    The fractional water vapor changes under global warming across 14 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 simulations are analyzed. We show that the mean fractional water vapor changes under global warming in the tropical upper troposphere between 300 and 100 hPa range from 12.4 to 28.0 %/K across all models while the fractional water vapor changes are about 5-8 %/K in other regions and at lower altitudes. The "upper-tropospheric amplification" of the water vapor change is primarily driven by a larger temperature increase in the upper troposphere than in the lower troposphere per degree of surface warming. The relative contributions of atmospheric temperature and relative humidity changes to the water vapor change in each model vary between 71.5 to 131.8 % and 24.8 to -20.1 %, respectively. The inter-model differences in the water vapor change is primarily caused by differences in temperature change, except over the inter-tropical convergence zone within 10°S-10°N where the model differences due to the relative humidity change are significant. Furthermore, we find that there is generally a positive correlation between the rates of water vapor change for long-tem surface warming and those on the interannual time scales. However, the rates of water vapor change under long-term warming have a systematic offset from those on the inter-annual time scales and the dominant contributor to the differences also differs for the two time scales, suggesting caution needs to be taken when inferring long-term water vapor changes from the observed interannual variations.

  12. Global River Discharge and Water Temperature under Climate Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vliet, van M.T.H.; Franssen, W.H.P.; Yearsley, J.R.; Ludwig, F.; Haddeland, I.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Kabat, P.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change will affect hydrologic and thermal regimes of rivers, having a direct impact on freshwater ecosystems and human water use. Here we assess the impact of climate change on global river flows and river water temperatures, and identify regions that might become more critical for

  13. Global fund financing to the 34 malaria-eliminating countries under the new funding model 2014-2017: an analysis of national allocations and regional grants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zelman, Brittany; Melgar, Melissa; Larson, Erika; Phillips, Allison; Shretta, Rima

    2016-02-25

    The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria (GFATM) has been the largest financial supporter of malaria since 2002. In 2011, the GFATM transitioned to a new funding model (NFM), which prioritizes grants to high burden, lower income countries. This shift raises concerns that some low endemic countries, dependent on GFATM financing to achieve their malaria elimination goals, would receive less funding under the NFM. This study aims to understand the projected increase or decrease in national and regional funding from the GFATM's NFM to the 34 malaria-eliminating countries. Average annual disbursements under the old funding model were compared to average annual national allocations for all eligible 34 malaria-eliminating countries for the period of 2014-2017. Regional grant funding to countries that are due to receive additional support was then included in the comparison and analysed. Estimated funding ranges for the countries under the NFM were calculated using the proposed national allocation plus the possible adjustments and additional funding. Finally, the minimum and maximum funding estimates were compared to average annual disbursements under the old funding model. A cumulative 31 % decrease in national financing from the GFATM is expected for the countries included in this analysis. Regional grants augment funding for almost half of the eliminating countries, and increase the cumulative percent change in GTFAM funding to 32 %, though proposed activities may not be funded directly through national malaria programmes. However, if countries receive the maximum possible funding, 46 % of the countries included in this analysis would receive less than they received under the previous funding model. Many malaria-eliminating countries have projected national declines in funding from the GFATM under the NFM. While regional grants enhance funding for eliminating countries, they may not be able to fill country-level funding gaps for local commodities and

  14. Global Health Diplomacy, "San Francisco Values," and HIV/AIDS: From the Local to the Global.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kevany, Sebastian

    2015-01-01

    San Francisco has a distinguished history as a cosmopolitan, progressive, and international city, including extensive associations with global health. These circumstances have contributed to new, interdisciplinary scholarship in the field of global health diplomacy (GHD). In the present review, we describe the evolution and history of GHD at the practical and theoretical levels within the San Francisco medical community, trace related associations between the local and the global, and propose a range of potential opportunities for further development of this dynamic field. We provide a historical overview of the development of the "San Francisco Model" of collaborative, community-owned HIV/AIDS treatment and care programs as pioneered under the "Ward 86" paradigm of the 1980s. We traced the expansion and evolution of this model to the national level under the Ryan White Care Act, and internationally via the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief. In parallel, we describe the evolution of global health diplomacy practices, from the local to the global, including the integration of GHD principles into intervention design to ensure social, political, and cultural acceptability and sensitivity. Global health programs, as informed by lessons learned from the San Francisco Model, are increasingly aligned with diplomatic principles and practices. This awareness has aided implementation, allowed policymakers to pursue related and progressive social and humanitarian issues in conjunction with medical responses, and elevated global health to the realm of "high politics." In the 21st century, the integration between diplomatic, medical, and global health practices will continue under "smart global health" and GHD paradigms. These approaches will enhance intervention cost-effectiveness by addressing and optimizing, in tandem with each other, a wide range of (health and non-health) foreign policy, diplomatic, security, and economic priorities in a synergistic manner

  15. Global modelling of river water quality under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Franssen, Wietse H. P.; Yearsley, John R.

    2017-04-01

    Climate change will pose challenges on the quality of freshwater resources for human use and ecosystems for instance by changing the dilution capacity and by affecting the rate of chemical processes in rivers. Here we assess the impacts of climate change and induced streamflow changes on a selection of water quality parameters for river basins globally. We used the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and a newly developed global water quality module for salinity, temperature, dissolved oxygen and biochemical oxygen demand. The modelling framework was validated using observed records of streamflow, water temperature, chloride, electrical conductivity, dissolved oxygen and biochemical oxygen demand for 1981-2010. VIC and the water quality module were then forced with an ensemble of bias-corrected General Circulation Model (GCM) output for the representative concentration pathways RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 to study water quality trends and identify critical regions (hotspots) of water quality deterioration for the 21st century.

  16. Shifts in nitrogen acquisition strategies enable enhanced terrestrial carbon storage under elevated CO2 in a global model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sulman, B. N.; Brzostek, E. R.; Menge, D.; Malyshev, S.; Shevliakova, E.

    2017-12-01

    Earth System Model (ESM) projections of terrestrial carbon (C) uptake are critical to understanding the future of the global C cycle. Current ESMs include intricate representations of photosynthetic C fixation in plants, allowing them to simulate the stimulatory effect of increasing atmospheric CO2 levels on photosynthesis. However, they lack sophisticated representations of plant nutrient acquisition, calling into question their ability to project the future land C sink. We conducted simulations using a new model of terrestrial C and nitrogen (N) cycling within the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) global land model LM4 that uses a return on investment framework to simulate global patterns of N acquisition via fixation of N2 from the atmosphere, scavenging of inorganic N from soil solution, and mining of organic N from soil organic matter (SOM). We show that these strategies drive divergent C cycle responses to elevated CO2 at the ecosystem scale, with the scavenging strategy leading to N limitation of plant growth and the mining strategy facilitating stimulation of plant biomass accumulation over decadal time scales. In global simulations, shifts in N acquisition from inorganic N scavenging to organic N mining along with increases in N fixation supported long-term acceleration of C uptake under elevated CO2. Our results indicate that the ability of the land C sink to mitigate atmospheric CO2 levels is tightly coupled to the functional diversity of ecosystems and their capacity to change their N acquisition strategies over time. Incorporation of these mechanisms into ESMs is necessary to improve confidence in model projections of the global C cycle.

  17. Local adaptation and the potential effects of a contaminant on predator avoidance and antipredator responses under global warming: a space-for-time substitution approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janssens, Lizanne; Dinh Van, Khuong; Debecker, Sara; Bervoets, Lieven; Stoks, Robby

    2014-01-01

    The ability to deal with temperature-induced changes in interactions with contaminants and predators under global warming is one of the outstanding, applied evolutionary questions. For this, it is crucial to understand how contaminants will affect activity levels, predator avoidance and antipredator responses under global warming and to what extent gradual thermal evolution may mitigate these effects. Using a space-for-time substitution approach, we assessed the potential for gradual thermal evolution shaping activity (mobility and foraging), predator avoidance and antipredator responses when Ischnura elegans damselfly larvae were exposed to zinc in a common-garden warming experiment at the mean summer water temperatures of shallow water bodies at southern and northern latitudes (24 and 20°C, respectively). Zinc reduced mobility and foraging, predator avoidance and escape swimming speed. Importantly, high-latitude populations showed stronger zinc-induced reductions in escape swimming speed at both temperatures, and in activity levels at the high temperature. The latter indicates that local thermal adaptation may strongly change the ecological impact of contaminants under global warming. Our study underscores the critical importance of considering local adaptation along natural gradients when integrating biotic interactions in ecological risk assessment, and the potential of gradual thermal evolution mitigating the effects of warming on the vulnerability to contaminants. PMID:24665344

  18. Local adaptation and the potential effects of a contaminant on predator avoidance and antipredator responses under global warming: a space-for-time substitution approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janssens, Lizanne; Dinh Van, Khuong; Debecker, Sara; Bervoets, Lieven; Stoks, Robby

    2014-03-01

    The ability to deal with temperature-induced changes in interactions with contaminants and predators under global warming is one of the outstanding, applied evolutionary questions. For this, it is crucial to understand how contaminants will affect activity levels, predator avoidance and antipredator responses under global warming and to what extent gradual thermal evolution may mitigate these effects. Using a space-for-time substitution approach, we assessed the potential for gradual thermal evolution shaping activity (mobility and foraging), predator avoidance and antipredator responses when Ischnura elegans damselfly larvae were exposed to zinc in a common-garden warming experiment at the mean summer water temperatures of shallow water bodies at southern and northern latitudes (24 and 20°C, respectively). Zinc reduced mobility and foraging, predator avoidance and escape swimming speed. Importantly, high-latitude populations showed stronger zinc-induced reductions in escape swimming speed at both temperatures, and in activity levels at the high temperature. The latter indicates that local thermal adaptation may strongly change the ecological impact of contaminants under global warming. Our study underscores the critical importance of considering local adaptation along natural gradients when integrating biotic interactions in ecological risk assessment, and the potential of gradual thermal evolution mitigating the effects of warming on the vulnerability to contaminants.

  19. Divergent pheromone-mediated insect behaviour under global atmospheric change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edward B. Mondor; Michelle N. Tremblay; Caroline S. Awmack; Richard L. Lindroth

    2004-01-01

    While the effects of global atmospheric changes on vegetation and resulting insect populations('bottom-up interactions') are being increasingly studied, how these gases modify interactions among insects and their natural enemies ('top-down interactions') is less clear. As natural enemy efficacy is governed largely by behavioural mechanisms, altered...

  20. A global analysis of the concentration and dynamics of non-structural carbohydrates in plants: does it matter under global change? (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sala, A.; Martínez-Vilalta, J.; Asencio, M.; Lloret, F.; Palacio, S.; Galiano, L.; Hoch, G.; Piper, F.

    2013-12-01

    Forests store significant amounts of C globally and recent reports of forest mortality world-wide have generated strong concern. Evidence suggests that increasing drought associated with climate change is a primary cause of tree stress and subsequent mortality. This has generated an urgent need to predict how forests will cope with increasing stress. Storage of non-structural C compounds (NSC, compounds not permanently invested in structural biomass that can later be used to support diverse plant functions) is critical for survival during periods when C assimilation does not meet demand. However, remarkable knowledge gaps exist to accurately predict plant growth and survival under climate change. Although trees accumulate relatively large pools of NSC, there is a strong debate on how these pools build up over time. On the one hand, it is frequently assumed that the build- up of NSC in trees occurs when supply via photosynthesis exceeds overall demands. If so, the abundant NSC pools in trees reflect an overabundance of C in the long term. An alternative explanation is that trees regulate NSC storage to maintain sufficient pools to cope with asynchronies between demand and supply and with stresses that long lived plants inevitably experience during their life time. However, our understanding of whether and how trees regulate storage in the long term is minimal. Here, we assembled a new global database to examine broad patterns of seasonal NSC variation across organs, life forms and biomes, and the degree to which NSC storage is depleted in plants under a wide range of natural conditions. We compiled seasonal data (at least three measurements over a minimum of four months) for ca. 200 wild species under natural conditions. On average, NSC account for ca. 8-10% of dry plant biomass. NSC and starch concentrations do not vary significantly with biome, but soluble sugars (SS) in plants from Mediterranean biomes are higher than in temperate or tropical biomes. On average

  1. THE GLOBAL ZERO MOVEMENT: A ROAD TO NOWHERE

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-02-08

    persistence.”1 The underlying foundations of the Global Zero movement date back to the 1980s under the Reagan era as noted on the Global Zero website...and his colleagues.7 Presidential Candidate, Barack Obama Supports Global Zero One of those leaders was then Presidential candidate, Barack Obama...movement. In their eyes, this could be chalked up as one of the first major “wins” for the Global Zero movement. 6 As the motivations for Iran

  2. Range-wide latitudinal and elevational temperature gradients for the world's terrestrial birds: implications under global climate change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank A La Sorte

    Full Text Available Species' geographical distributions are tracking latitudinal and elevational surface temperature gradients under global climate change. To evaluate the opportunities to track these gradients across space, we provide a first baseline assessment of the steepness of these gradients for the world's terrestrial birds. Within the breeding ranges of 9,014 bird species, we characterized the spatial gradients in temperature along latitude and elevation for all and a subset of bird species, respectively. We summarized these temperature gradients globally for threatened and non-threatened species and determined how their steepness varied based on species' geography (range size, shape, and orientation and projected changes in temperature under climate change. Elevational temperature gradients were steepest for species in Africa, western North and South America, and central Asia and shallowest in Australasia, insular IndoMalaya, and the Neotropical lowlands. Latitudinal temperature gradients were steepest for extratropical species, especially in the Northern Hemisphere. Threatened species had shallower elevational gradients whereas latitudinal gradients differed little between threatened and non-threatened species. The strength of elevational gradients was positively correlated with projected changes in temperature. For latitudinal gradients, this relationship only held for extratropical species. The strength of latitudinal gradients was better predicted by species' geography, but primarily for extratropical species. Our findings suggest threatened species are associated with shallower elevational temperature gradients, whereas steep latitudinal gradients are most prevalent outside the tropics where fewer bird species occur year-round. Future modeling and mitigation efforts would benefit from the development of finer grain distributional data to ascertain how these gradients are structured within species' ranges, how and why these gradients vary among

  3. Impact and prevention on global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Heon Ryeol

    2003-11-01

    This book deals with impact and prevention on global warming with eight chapters, which introduce the change after the earth was born and natural environment, how is global atmospheric environment under the control of radiant energy? What does global warming look with the earth history like? What's the status of global warming so far? How does climate change happen? What is the impact by global warming and climate change and for preservation of global environment of 21 century with consumption of energy, measure and prospect on global warming. It has reference, index and three appendixes.

  4. Global-minded Human Resources and Expectations for Universities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inoue, Hiroshi

    Under the globalized economy, Japanese corporations compete with rivals of the western countries and emerging economies. And domestically, they face with deflation, falling birth-rate, an aging society, and shrinking market. So they need to foster and retain global-minded human resources who can play an active role in global business, and who can drive innovation. What Japanese corporations expect for global-minded human resources are ability to meet challenges, ability to think independently free from conventional wisdom, communication skills in foreign languages, interests in foreign cultures and different values, and so on. In order to foster global-minded human resources, Keidanren work with the 13 universities selected under the Japanese Government‧s “Global 30” projects to undertake “Global-minded Human Resources Development Projects” .

  5. Morphology in the total electron content under geomagnetic disturbed conditions: results from global ionosphere maps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhao Biqiang

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Using 8-year global ionosphere maps (GIMs of TEC products from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL, we make a statistical study on the morphology of the global ionospheric behaviors with respect to the geomagnetic disturbances. Results show that the behaviors of TEC during geomagnetic storm present clear seasonal and local time variations under geomagnetic control in a similar way as those of NmF2 (Field and Rishbeth, 1997. A negative phase of TEC occurs with high probability in the summer hemisphere and most prominent near the geomagnetic poles, while a positive phase is obvious in the winter hemisphere and in the far pole region. A negative storm effect toward lower latitudes tends to occur from post-midnight to the morning sector and recedes to high latitude in the afternoon. A positive storm effect is separated by geomagnetic latitudes and magnetic local time. Furthermore, ionospheric responses at different local time sectors with respect to the storm commencement shows very different developing processes corresponding to the evolution of the geomagnetic storm. A daytime positive storm effect is shown to be more prominent in the American region than those in the Asian and European regions, which may suggest a longitudinal effect of the ionospheric storm.

  6. Morphology in the total electron content under geomagnetic disturbed conditions: results from global ionosphere maps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Biqiang

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Using 8-year global ionosphere maps (GIMs of TEC products from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL, we make a statistical study on the morphology of the global ionospheric behaviors with respect to the geomagnetic disturbances. Results show that the behaviors of TEC during geomagnetic storm present clear seasonal and local time variations under geomagnetic control in a similar way as those of NmF2 (Field and Rishbeth, 1997. A negative phase of TEC occurs with high probability in the summer hemisphere and most prominent near the geomagnetic poles, while a positive phase is obvious in the winter hemisphere and in the far pole region. A negative storm effect toward lower latitudes tends to occur from post-midnight to the morning sector and recedes to high latitude in the afternoon. A positive storm effect is separated by geomagnetic latitudes and magnetic local time. Furthermore, ionospheric responses at different local time sectors with respect to the storm commencement shows very different developing processes corresponding to the evolution of the geomagnetic storm. A daytime positive storm effect is shown to be more prominent in the American region than those in the Asian and European regions, which may suggest a longitudinal effect of the ionospheric storm.

  7. Extreme heat waves under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dosio, Alessandro; Mentaschi, Lorenzo; Fischer, Erich M.; Wyser, Klaus

    2018-05-01

    Severe, extreme, and exceptional heat waves, such as those that occurred over the Balkans (2007), France (2003), or Russia (2010), are associated with increased mortality, human discomfort and reduced labour productivity. Based on the results of a very high-resolution global model, we show that, even at 1.5 °C warming, a significant increase in heat wave magnitude is expected over Africa, South America, and Southeast Asia. Compared to a 1.5 °C world, under 2 °C warming the frequency of extreme heat waves would double over most of the globe. In a 1.5 °C world, 13.8% of the world population will be exposed to severe heat waves at least once every 5 years. This fraction becomes nearly three times larger (36.9%) under 2 °C warming, i.e. a difference of around 1.7 billion people. Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C will also result in around 420 million fewer people being frequently exposed to extreme heat waves, and ~65 million to exceptional heat waves. Nearly 700 million people (9.0% of world population) will be exposed to extreme heat waves at least once every 20 years in a 1.5 °C world, but more than 2 billion people (28.2%) in a 2 °C world. With current emission trends threatening even the 2 °C target, our study is helpful to identify regions where limiting the warming to 1.5 °C would have the strongest benefits in reducing population exposure to extreme heat.

  8. Resource subsidies between stream and terrestrial ecosystems under global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsen, Stefano; Muehlbauer, Jeffrey D.; Marti Roca, Maria Eugenia

    2016-01-01

    Streams and adjacent terrestrial ecosystems are characterized by permeable boundaries that are crossed by resource subsidies. Although the importance of these subsidies for riverine ecosystems is increasingly recognized, little is known about how they may be influenced by global environmental change. Drawing from available evidence, in this review we propose a conceptual framework to evaluate the effects of global change on the quality and spatiotemporal dynamics of stream–terrestrial subsidies. We illustrate how changes to hydrological and temperature regimes, atmospheric CO2 concentration, land use and the distribution of nonindigenous species can influence subsidy fluxes by affecting the biology and ecology of donor and recipient systems and the physical characteristics of stream–riparian boundaries. Climate-driven changes in the physiology and phenology of organisms with complex life cycles will influence their development time, body size and emergence patterns, with consequences for adjacent terrestrial consumers. Also, novel species interactions can modify subsidy dynamics via complex bottom-up and top-down effects. Given the seasonality and pulsed nature of subsidies, alterations of the temporal and spatial synchrony of resource availability to consumers across ecosystems are likely to result in ecological mismatches that can scale up from individual responses, to communities, to ecosystems. Similarly, altered hydrology, temperature, CO2 concentration and land use will modify the recruitment and quality of riparian vegetation, the timing of leaf abscission and the establishment of invasive riparian species. Along with morphological changes to stream–terrestrial boundaries, these will alter the use and fluxes of allochthonous subsidies associated with stream ecosystems. Future research should aim to understand how subsidy dynamics will be affected by key drivers of global change, including agricultural intensification, increasing water use and biotic

  9. Global Mechanical Response and Its Relation to Deformation and Failure Modes at Various Length Scales Under Shock Impact in Alumina AD995 Armor Ceramic

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Dandekar, D. P; McCauley, J. W; Green, W. H; Bourne, N. K; Chen, M. W

    2008-01-01

    ... maps relating the experimentally measured global mechanical response of a material through matured shock wave diagnostics to the nature of concurrent deformation and damage generated at varying length scales under shock wave loading.

  10. High-resolution multimodel projections of soil moisture drought in Europe under 1.5, 2 and 3 degree global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samaniego, L. E.; Kumar, R.; Zink, M.; Pan, M.; Wanders, N.; Marx, A.; Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Thober, S.

    2017-12-01

    Droughts are creeping hydro-meteorological events that may bring societies and natural systems to their limits by inducing significant environmental changes and large socio-economic losses. Little is know about the effects of varios degrees of warming (i.e., 1.5 , 2 and 3 K) and their respective uncertainties on extreme characteristics such as drought duration and area under drought in general, and in Europe in particular. In this study we investigate the evolution of droughts characteristics under three levels of warming using an unprecedented high-resolution multi-model hydrologic ensemble over the Pan-EU domain at a scale of 5x5 km2 from 1950 until 2100. This multi-model ensemble comprises four hydrologic models (HMs: mHM, Noah-MP, PCR-GLOBWB, VIC) which are forced by five CMIP-5 Global Climate Models (GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, NorESM1-M) under three RCP scenarios 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5. This results in a 60-member ensemble. The contribution GCM/HM uncertainties were analyzed based on a sequential sampling algorithm proposed by Samaniego et al. 2016. This study is carried out within the EDgE project funded by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (edge.climate.copernicus.eu) and the HOKLIM project funded by the German Ministry of Education (BMBF)(www.ufz.de/hoklim). The changes under three levels of warming indicate significant increase (more than 10%) of the number of droughts and area under drought with respect to 30-year climatological means obtained with E-OBS observations. Furthermore, we found that: 1) the number of drought events exhibit significant regional changes. Largest changes are observed in the Mediterrinian where frequency of droughts increases from 25% under 1.5 K to 33% under 2 K, and to more than 50% under 3 K warming. Minor changes are seen in Central-Europe and the British Isles. 2) The GCMs/HMs uncertainties have marked regional differences too, with GCM uncertainty appear to be larger everywhere. The uncertainty of

  11. Visualization of the chains of risks under global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yokohata, T.; Nishina, K.; Takahashi, K.; Kiguchi, M.; Iseri, Y.; Sueyoshi, T.; Yoshimori, M.; Iwase, K.; Yamamoto, A.; Shigemitsu, M.; Honda, Y.; Hanasaki, N.; Masaki, Y.; Ito, A.; Iizumi, T.; Sakurai, G.; Okada, M.; Emori, S.; Oki, T.

    2014-12-01

    Anthropogenic climate change possibly causes various impacts on human society and ecosystem. Here, we call possible damages or benefits caused by the future climate change as "climate risks". Many climate risks are closely interconnected with each other by direct cause-effect relationship. In this study, the major climate risks are comprehensively summarized based on the survey of studies in the literature using IPCC AR5 etc, and their cause-effect relationship are visualized by a "network diagram". This research is conducted by the collaboration between the experts of various fields, such as water, energy, agriculture, health, society, and eco-system under the project called ICA-RUS (Integrated Climate Assessment - Risks, Uncertainties and Society). First, the climate risks are classified into 9 categories (water, energy, food, health, disaster, industry, society, ecosystem, and tipping elements). Second, researchers of these fields in our project survey the research articles, and pick up items of climate risks, and possible cause-effect relationship between the risk items. A long list of the climate risks is summarized into ~130, and that of possible cause-effect relationship between the risk items is summarized into ~300, because the network diagram would be illegible if the number of the risk items and cause-effect relationship is too large. Here, we only consider the risks that could occur if climate mitigation policies are not conducted. Finally, the chain of climate risks is visualized by creating a "network diagram" based on a network graph theory (Fruchtman & Reingold algorithm). Through the analysis of network diagram, we find that climate risks at various sectors are closely related. For example, the decrease in the precipitation under the global climate change possibly causes the decrease in river runoff and the decrease in soil moisture, which causes the changes in crop production. The changes in crop production can have an impact on society by

  12. USING GEM - GLOBAL ECONOMIC MODEL IN ACHIEVING A GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECAST

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camelia Madalina Orac

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The global economic development model has proved to be insufficiently reliable under the new economic crisis. As a result, the entire theoretical construction about the global economy needs rethinking and reorientation. In this context, it is quite clear that only through effective use of specific techniques and tools of economic-mathematical modeling, statistics, regional analysis and economic forecasting it is possible to obtain an overview of the future economy.

  13. A global map of suitability for coastal Vibrio cholerae under current and future climate conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escobar, Luis E; Ryan, Sadie J; Stewart-Ibarra, Anna M; Finkelstein, Julia L; King, Christine A; Qiao, Huijie; Polhemus, Mark E

    2015-09-01

    Vibrio cholerae is a globally distributed water-borne pathogen that causes severe diarrheal disease and mortality, with current outbreaks as part of the seventh pandemic. Further understanding of the role of environmental factors in potential pathogen distribution and corresponding V. cholerae disease transmission over time and space is urgently needed to target surveillance of cholera and other climate and water-sensitive diseases. We used an ecological niche model (ENM) to identify environmental variables associated with V. cholerae presence in marine environments, to project a global model of V. cholerae distribution in ocean waters under current and future climate scenarios. We generated an ENM using published reports of V. cholerae in seawater and freely available remotely sensed imagery. Models indicated that factors associated with V. cholerae presence included chlorophyll-a, pH, and sea surface temperature (SST), with chlorophyll-a demonstrating the greatest explanatory power from variables selected for model calibration. We identified specific geographic areas for potential V. cholerae distribution. Coastal Bangladesh, where cholera is endemic, was found to be environmentally similar to coastal areas in Latin America. In a conservative climate change scenario, we observed a predicted increase in areas with environmental conditions suitable for V. cholerae. Findings highlight the potential for vulnerability maps to inform cholera surveillance, early warning systems, and disease prevention and control. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. How social structure changes in Chinese global cities: Synthesizing globalization, migration and institutional factors in Beijing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shi, Q.; Liu, T.; Musterd, S.; Cao, G.

    2017-01-01

    Recent studies on the social structural change in global cities have recognized globalization, migration, and institutional factors as three main forces underlying this process. However, effects of these factors have rarely been synthetically examined and the social structure of emerging Chinese

  15. Global citizenship is key to securing global health: the role of higher education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoner, Lee; Perry, Lane; Wadsworth, Daniel; Stoner, Krystina R; Tarrant, Michael A

    2014-07-01

    Despite growing public awareness, health systems are struggling under the escalating burden of non-communicable diseases. While personal responsibility is crucial, alone it is insufficient. We argue that one must place themselves within the broader/global context to begin to truly understand the health implications of personal choices. Global citizenship competency has become an integral part of the higher education discourse; this discourse can and should be extended to include global health. A global citizen is someone who is (1) aware of global issues, (2) socially responsible, and (3) civically engaged. From this perspective, personal health is not solely an individual, self-serving act; rather, the consequences of our lifestyle choices and behaviors have far-reaching implications. This paper will argue that, through consciously identifying global health within the constructs of global citizenship, institutions of higher education can play an instrumental role in fostering civically engaged students capable of driving social change. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Coastal livelihood transitions under globalization with implications for trans-ecosystem interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kramer, Daniel B; Stevens, Kara; Williams, Nicholas E; Sistla, Seeta A; Roddy, Adam B; Urquhart, Gerald R

    2017-01-01

    Anthropogenic threats to natural systems can be exacerbated due to connectivity between marine, freshwater, and terrestrial ecosystems, complicating the already daunting task of governance across the land-sea interface. Globalization, including new access to markets, can change social-ecological, land-sea linkages via livelihood responses and adaptations by local people. As a first step in understanding these trans-ecosystem effects, we examined exit and entry decisions of artisanal fishers and smallholder farmers on the rapidly globalizing Caribbean coast of Nicaragua. We found that exit and entry decisions demonstrated clear temporal and spatial patterns and that these decisions differed by livelihood. In addition to household characteristics, livelihood exit and entry decisions were strongly affected by new access to regional and global markets. The natural resource implications of these livelihood decisions are potentially profound as they provide novel linkages and spatially-explicit feedbacks between terrestrial and marine ecosystems. Our findings support the need for more scientific inquiry in understanding trans-ecosystem tradeoffs due to linked-livelihood transitions as well as the need for a trans-ecosystem approach to natural resource management and development policy in rapidly changing coastal regions.

  17. Coastal livelihood transitions under globalization with implications for trans-ecosystem interactions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel B Kramer

    Full Text Available Anthropogenic threats to natural systems can be exacerbated due to connectivity between marine, freshwater, and terrestrial ecosystems, complicating the already daunting task of governance across the land-sea interface. Globalization, including new access to markets, can change social-ecological, land-sea linkages via livelihood responses and adaptations by local people. As a first step in understanding these trans-ecosystem effects, we examined exit and entry decisions of artisanal fishers and smallholder farmers on the rapidly globalizing Caribbean coast of Nicaragua. We found that exit and entry decisions demonstrated clear temporal and spatial patterns and that these decisions differed by livelihood. In addition to household characteristics, livelihood exit and entry decisions were strongly affected by new access to regional and global markets. The natural resource implications of these livelihood decisions are potentially profound as they provide novel linkages and spatially-explicit feedbacks between terrestrial and marine ecosystems. Our findings support the need for more scientific inquiry in understanding trans-ecosystem tradeoffs due to linked-livelihood transitions as well as the need for a trans-ecosystem approach to natural resource management and development policy in rapidly changing coastal regions.

  18. Will life find a way? Evolution of marine species under global change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calosi, Piero; De Wit, Pierre; Thor, Peter; Dupont, Sam

    2016-10-01

    Projections of marine biodiversity and implementation of effective actions for its maintenance in the face of current rapid global environmental change are constrained by our limited understanding of species' adaptive responses, including transgenerational plasticity, epigenetics and natural selection. This special issue presents 13 novel studies, which employ experimental and modelling approaches to (i) investigate plastic and evolutionary responses of marine species to major global change drivers; (ii) ask relevant broad eco-evolutionary questions, implementing multiple species and populations studies; (iii) show the advantages of using advanced experimental designs and tools; (iv) construct novel model organisms for marine evolution; (v) help identifying future challenges for the field; and (vi) highlight the importance of incorporating existing evolutionary theory into management solutions for the marine realm. What emerges is that at least some populations of marine species have the ability to adapt to future global change conditions. However, marine organisms' capacity for adaptation appears finite, due to evolutionary trade-offs and possible rapid losses in genetic diversity. This further corroborates the idea that acquiring an evolutionary perspective on how marine life will respond to the selective pressure of future global changes will guide us in better identifying which conservation efforts will be most needed and most effective.

  19. Future habitat suitability for coral reef ecosystems under global warming and ocean acidification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Couce, Elena; Ridgwell, Andy; Hendy, Erica J

    2013-12-01

    Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations are placing spatially divergent stresses on the world's tropical coral reefs through increasing ocean surface temperatures and ocean acidification. We show how these two stressors combine to alter the global habitat suitability for shallow coral reef ecosystems, using statistical Bioclimatic Envelope Models rather than basing projections on any a priori assumptions of physiological tolerances or fixed thresholds. We apply two different modeling approaches (Maximum Entropy and Boosted Regression Trees) with two levels of complexity (one a simplified and reduced environmental variable version of the other). Our models project a marked temperature-driven decline in habitat suitability for many of the most significant and bio-diverse tropical coral regions, particularly in the central Indo-Pacific. This is accompanied by a temperature-driven poleward range expansion of favorable conditions accelerating up to 40-70 km per decade by 2070. We find that ocean acidification is less influential for determining future habitat suitability than warming, and its deleterious effects are centered evenly in both hemispheres between 5° and 20° latitude. Contrary to expectations, the combined impact of ocean surface temperature rise and acidification leads to little, if any, degradation in future habitat suitability across much of the Atlantic and areas currently considered 'marginal' for tropical corals, such as the eastern Equatorial Pacific. These results are consistent with fossil evidence of range expansions during past warm periods. In addition, the simplified models are particularly sensitive to short-term temperature variations and their projections correlate well with reported locations of bleaching events. Our approach offers new insights into the relative impact of two global environmental pressures associated with rising atmospheric CO2 on potential future habitats, but greater understanding of past and current controls on coral

  20. Perspectives from Global Feminist Theology

    OpenAIRE

    Vuola, Elina

    2017-01-01

    This article pays critical attention to the ways in which academic feminism has regarded religion. Issues related to religion and gender have by and large either been ignored or treated quite stereotypically. I have called this phenomenon a simultaneous under- and overestimation of religion. The phenomenon is not global. Feminists of the global south tend to pay much more and more multi-faceted attention to religion than scholars from the global north. I will illustrate this problem through a...

  1. Application of the local-to-global approach to the study of infilled frame structures under seismic loading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Combescure, D.

    2000-01-01

    The seismic performance of civil engineering structures may be estimated by using two levels of modelling. At the local level, each constituent has its own constitutive law and geometric finite element support. The main phenomena such as the cracking and the crushing of concrete and masonry could be reproduced by using the continuous damage or plasticity theories. However the cost of the computations does not allow extensive or dynamic studies and thus the global level - where the constitutive laws based on empirical rules reproduce the behaviour of the structural elements - represents the unique strategy for the analysis of complete civil engineering structures under seismic loading. The present paper aims at presenting the application of these two modelling levels in order to assess the seismic performance of masonry infilled R/C frame structures. The one-bay masonry infilled frames tested at Lisbon under cyclic loading and the four-storey building tested at ELSA have been used for the validation of the modelling approach. (orig.)

  2. Globalization of the automobile industry: traditional locations under pressure?

    OpenAIRE

    Spatz, Julius; Nunnenkamp, Peter

    2004-01-01

    Even though the automobile industry is technologically advanced, the increasing integration of low-income countries into the global division of labor has put competitive pressure on traditional automobile producing countries. New end-producers emerged in Asia, Latin America as well as Southern and Central Europe. In addition, the automobile industries of Germany, Japan and the United States engaged in outsourcing of relatively labor intensive segments of the value chain, especially on a regio...

  3. Analysis of Roanoke Region Weather Patterns Under Global Teleconnections

    OpenAIRE

    LaRocque, Eric John

    2006-01-01

    This work attempts to relate global teleconnections, through physical phenomena such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Artic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern to synoptic-scale weather patterns and precipitation in the Roanoke, Virginia region. The first chapter describes the behavior of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) by implementing non-homogeneous and homogeneous Markov Chain models on a monthly time series o...

  4. Controls on the meridional extent of tropical precipitation and its contraction under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donohoe, A.

    2017-12-01

    A method for decomposing changes and variability in the spatial structure of tropical precipitation into shifting (meridional translation), contracting, and intensifying modes of variability is introduced. We demonstrate that the shifting mode of tropical precipitation explains very little (20%) more of the tropical precipitation changes and variability. Furthermore, the contraction of tropical precipitation is highly correlated (R2 > 0.95) with an intensification of the precipitation in both the observations and forced modeled simulations. These results suggest that the simultaneous contraction and intensification of tropical precipitation is the dominant mode of variability and changes under external forcing. We speculate that tropical surface temperature controls this concurrent variability. Indeed, models robustly predict that tropical precipitation increases and meridionally contracts in response to increased CO2 and is reduced and meridionally expanded under glacial forcing and boundary conditions. In contrast, the directionality of the tropical precipitation shift is both ambiguous and small in magnitude in response to increased CO2. Furthermore, the ratio of the contraction/expansion to intensification/reduction is consistent in the continuum of climate states from the glacial climate to a modern climate to a 4XCO2 climate suggesting that the intensification and contraction are linked together via a single mechanism. We examine two mechanisms responsible for the contraction of the precipitation under global warming : i. the reduction of the seasonal cycle of energy input to the atmosphere due to sea ice retreat that results in the tropical precipitation remaining closer to the equator during the solsticial seasons and; ii. the increased gross moist stability of the tropical atmosphere as the surface warms resulting in a weaker cross-equatorial Hadley circulation during the solsticial seasons.

  5. Global Harmonic Current Rejection of Nonlinear Backstepping Control with Multivariable Adaptive Internal Model Principle for Grid-Connected Inverter under Distorted Grid Voltage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Yu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on a brief review on current harmonics generation mechanism for grid-connected inverter under distorted grid voltage, the harmonic disturbances and uncertain items are immersed into the original state-space differential equation of grid-connected inverter. A new algorithm of global current harmonic rejection based on nonlinear backstepping control with multivariable internal model principle is proposed for grid-connected inverter with exogenous disturbances and uncertainties. A type of multivariable internal model for a class of nonlinear harmonic disturbances is constructed. Based on application of backstepping control law of the nominal system, a multivariable adaptive state feedback controller combined with multivariable internal model and adaptive control law is designed to guarantee the closed-loop system globally uniformly bounded, which is proved by a constructed Lyapunov function. The presented algorithm extends rejection of nonlinear single-input systems to multivariable globally defined normal form, the correctness and effectiveness of which are verified by the simulation results.

  6. How will the impact of El Nino and La Nina on Australia change under global warming?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Power, Scott; Morgan, Adam; Moise, Aurel; Grainger, Simon; Smith, Ian; Reeder, Michael

    2007-01-01

    Full text: The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a profound influence on Australia. How will this influence change under global warming? Will El Nino droughts become more frequent or more intense? Will La Nina events tend to produce more or less rainfall over Australia than they have in the past? Has ENSO already changed? Has ENSO's impact on Australia already changed? Will global warming be 'El Nino-like'? How well do current models simulate ENSO and how reliable are their projections for ENSO? Here we will provide answers to these questions drawing on the IPCC (2007) report and recent research conducted here in Australia. We will see that: ENSO and its impact on Australia varied substantially on decadal and longer time-scales over the past century; The frequency of El Nino events appeared to increase; The Walker Circulation, which is one of the most prominent and important atmospheric circulations in the world, is centred in the Pacific Ocean and is strongly modulated by ENSO. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) - which is used to track ENSO and the strength of the Walker Circulation -has trended down over the past century. The tropical Pacific - the engine room for ENSO - has warmed to unprecedented levels. The Walker Circulation weakens in some models in response to global warming. The relationship between Australian rainfall, temperature and the SOI has changed. The IPCC WG1 Report (2007) concluded that'... there is no consistent indication at this time of discernable changes in ENSO amplitude or frequency in the 21st century'. Even if ENSO variability in the tropical Pacific does not change, ENSO's impact on Australia might. Evidence supporting this hypothesis will be provided. Finally, we will discuss what this all means for Australia

  7. On the role of ozone feedback in the ENSO amplitude response under global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nowack, Peer J; Braesicke, Peter; Luke Abraham, N; Pyle, John A

    2017-04-28

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean is of key importance to global climate and weather. However, state-of-the-art climate models still disagree on the ENSO's response under climate change. The potential role of atmospheric ozone changes in this context has not been explored before. Here we show that differences between typical model representations of ozone can have a first-order impact on ENSO amplitude projections in climate sensitivity simulations. The vertical temperature gradient of the tropical middle-to-upper troposphere adjusts to ozone changes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, modifying the Walker circulation and consequently tropical Pacific surface temperature gradients. We show that neglecting ozone changes thus results in a significant increase in the number of extreme ENSO events in our model. Climate modeling studies of the ENSO often neglect changes in ozone. We therefore highlight the need to understand better the coupling between ozone, the tropospheric circulation, and climate variability.

  8. Multi-model ensemble simulations of low flows in Europe under a 1.5, 2, and 3 degree global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marx, A.; Kumar, R.; Thober, S.; Zink, M.; Wanders, N.; Wood, E. F.; Pan, M.; Sheffield, J.; Samaniego, L. E.

    2017-12-01

    There is growing evidence that climate change will alter water availability in Europe. Here, we investigate how hydrological low flows are affected under different levels of future global warming (i.e., 1.5, 2 and 3 K). The analysis is based on a multi-model ensemble of 45 hydrological simulations based on three RCPs (rcp2p6, rcp6p0, rcp8p5), five CMIP5 GCMs (GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, NorESM1-M) and three state-of-the-art hydrological models (HMs: mHM, Noah-MP, and PCR-GLOBWB). High resolution model results are available at the unprecedented spatial resolution of 5 km across the pan-European domain at daily temporal resolution. Low river flow is described as the percentile of daily streamflow that is exceeded 90% of the time. It is determined separately for each GCM/HM combinations and the warming scenarios. The results show that the change signal amplifies with increasing warming levels. Low flows decrease in the Mediterranean, while they increase in the Alpine and Northern regions. In the Mediterranean, the level of warming amplifies the signal from -12% under 1.5 K to -35% under 3 K global warming largely due to the projected decreases in annual precipitation. In contrast, the signal is amplified from +22% (1.5 K) to +45% (3 K) because of the reduced snow melt contribution. The changes in low flows are significant for regions with relatively large change signals and under higher levels of warming. Nevertheless, it is not possible to distinguish climate induced differences in low flows between 1.5 and 2 K warming because of the large variability inherent in the multi-model ensemble. The contribution by the GCMs to the uncertainty in the Alpine and Northern region as well as the Mediterranean, the uncertainty contribution by the HMs is partly higher than those by the GCMs due to different representations of processes such as snow, soil moisture and evapotranspiration.

  9. Two Decades of Global Mindset Research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bujac, Andreea Ioana; Kuada, John Ernest

    2016-01-01

    This chapter presents the results of a systematic review of 28 papers that have studied the global mindset orientation in the period 1995-2014. The review traces the development of the global mindset construct in order to provide scholars and practitioners with an analytical assessment of the exi...... of the existing research on this topic. The findings suggest that the existing knowledge of global mindset can be divided under two research themes: global mindset and leadership, and global mindset and internationalization.......This chapter presents the results of a systematic review of 28 papers that have studied the global mindset orientation in the period 1995-2014. The review traces the development of the global mindset construct in order to provide scholars and practitioners with an analytical assessment...

  10. Sustainable Land Use in Mountain Regions Under Global Change: Synthesis Across Scales and Disciplines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Huber

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Mountain regions provide essential ecosystem goods and services (EGS for both mountain dwellers and people living outside these areas. Global change endangers the capacity of mountain ecosystems to provide key services. The Mountland project focused on three case study regions in the Swiss Alps and aimed to propose land-use practices and alternative policy solutions to ensure the provision of key EGS under climate and land-use changes. We summarized and synthesized the results of the project and provide insights into the ecological, socioeconomic, and political processes relevant for analyzing global change impacts on a European mountain region. In Mountland, an integrative approach was applied, combining methods from economics and the political and natural sciences to analyze ecosystem functioning from a holistic human-environment system perspective. In general, surveys, experiments, and model results revealed that climate and socioeconomic changes are likely to increase the vulnerability of the EGS analyzed. We regard the following key characteristics of coupled human-environment systems as central to our case study areas in mountain regions: thresholds, heterogeneity, trade-offs, and feedback. Our results suggest that the institutional framework should be strengthened in a way that better addresses these characteristics, allowing for (1 more integrative approaches, (2 a more network-oriented management and steering of political processes that integrate local stakeholders, and (3 enhanced capacity building to decrease the identified vulnerability as central elements in the policy process. Further, to maintain and support the future provision of EGS in mountain regions, policy making should also focus on project-oriented, cross-sectoral policies and spatial planning as a coordination instrument for land use in general.

  11. Increasing potential for intense tropical and subtropical thunderstorms under global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Martin S; Kuang, Zhiming; Maloney, Eric D; Hannah, Walter M; Wolding, Brandon O

    2017-10-31

    Intense thunderstorms produce rapid cloud updrafts and may be associated with a range of destructive weather events. An important ingredient in measures of the potential for intense thunderstorms is the convective available potential energy (CAPE). Climate models project increases in summertime mean CAPE in the tropics and subtropics in response to global warming, but the physical mechanisms responsible for such increases and the implications for future thunderstorm activity remain uncertain. Here, we show that high percentiles of the CAPE distribution (CAPE extremes) also increase robustly with warming across the tropics and subtropics in an ensemble of state-of-the-art climate models, implying strong increases in the frequency of occurrence of environments conducive to intense thunderstorms in future climate projections. The increase in CAPE extremes is consistent with a recently proposed theoretical model in which CAPE depends on the influence of convective entrainment on the tropospheric lapse rate, and we demonstrate the importance of this influence for simulated CAPE extremes using a climate model in which the convective entrainment rate is varied. We further show that the theoretical model is able to account for the climatological relationship between CAPE and a measure of lower-tropospheric humidity in simulations and in observations. Our results provide a physical basis on which to understand projected future increases in intense thunderstorm potential, and they suggest that an important mechanism that contributes to such increases may be present in Earth's atmosphere. Published under the PNAS license.

  12. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH NEWS #8: OUR CHANGING PLANET: THE FY2000 U.S. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM

    Science.gov (United States)

    This edition of Global Change Research News focuses on the publication of the new OurChanging Planet: The FY2000 U.S. Global Change Research Program. This annual report to the Congress was prepared under the auspices ofthe President's National Science and Technology Council. It...

  13. The role of plant functional trade-offs for biodiversity changes and biome shifts under scenarios of global climatic change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Reu

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available The global geographic distribution of biodiversity and biomes is determined by species-specific physiological tolerances to climatic constraints. Current vegetation models employ empirical bioclimatic relationships to predict present-day vegetation patterns and to forecast biodiversity changes and biome shifts under climatic change. In this paper, we consider trade-offs in plant functioning and their responses under climatic changes to forecast and explain changes in plant functional richness and shifts in biome geographic distributions.

    The Jena Diversity model (JeDi simulates plant survival according to essential plant functional trade-offs, including ecophysiological processes such as water uptake, photosynthesis, allocation, reproduction and phenology. We use JeDi to quantify changes in plant functional richness and biome shifts between present-day and a range of possible future climates from two SRES emission scenarios (A2 and B1 and seven global climate models using metrics of plant functional richness and functional identity.

    Our results show (i a significant loss of plant functional richness in the tropics, (ii an increase in plant functional richness at mid and high latitudes, and (iii a pole-ward shift of biomes. While these results are consistent with the findings of empirical approaches, we are able to explain them in terms of the plant functional trade-offs involved in the allocation, metabolic and reproduction strategies of plants. We conclude that general aspects of plant physiological tolerances can be derived from functional trade-offs, which may provide a useful process- and trait-based alternative to bioclimatic relationships. Such a mechanistic approach may be particularly relevant when addressing vegetation responses to climatic changes that encounter novel combinations of climate parameters that do not exist under contemporary climate.

  14. Im/mobilities and dis/connectivities in medical globalisation: How global is Global Health?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dilger, Hansjörg; Mattes, Dominik

    2018-03-01

    The interdisciplinary, politically contested field of Global Health has often been described as a consequence of, and response to, an intensification of the mobilities of, and connectivities between, people, pathogens, ideas, and infrastructure across national borders and large distances. However, such global mobilities and connectivities are not as omnidirectional and unpatterned as the rhetoric of many Global Health actors suggests. Instead, we argue that they are suffused by a plethora of institutional, national, and global political agendas, and substantially shaped by transnational and postcolonial power relations. Furthermore, the configurations that are typically subsumed under the category of Global Health represent only a minor part of the range of im/mobilities and dis/connectivities that are essential for understanding transformations of epidemiological patterns, health care infrastructures, and the responses to health-related challenges in a globalising world. In order to broaden such a limiting analytical perspective, we propose to expand the analytical focus in studying Global Health phenomena by paying close attention to the myriad ways in which particular im/mobilities and dis/connectivities constitute medicine and well-being in global and transnational settings. Pursuing a conceptual shift from studies of 'Global Health' to studying 'medical globalization' may carve out new analytical ground for such an endeavour.

  15. Global scientific research commons under the Nagoya Protocol: Towards a collaborative economy model for the sharing of basic research assets

    OpenAIRE

    Dedeurwaerdere, Tom; Melindi Ghidi, Paolo; Broggiato, Arianna

    2015-01-01

    This paper aims to get a better understanding of the motivational and transaction cost features of building global scientific research commons, with a view to contributing to the debate on the design of appropriate policy measures under the recently adopted Nagoya Protocol. For this purpose, the paper analyses the results of a world-wide survey of managers and users of microbial culture collections, which focused on the role of social and internalized motivations, organizational networks and ...

  16. Globalization and Education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huma Imran Khan

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The concept of globalization has been introduced due to technical advancements that has made the world a global village. The world as is now has never been before; it is now a world where multicultural societies have developed, trade and transactions are made between countries, technology reaches every part of the world, and internet has connected every possible idea, opinion, person, and commodity with the rest of the world. In this world of globalization, education has taken a central role, as without education globalization cannot be germinated. Education is a national issue and as such, each country has its own educational policies that are emblems of that country's cultural values, belief system and historical realities. Nevertheless, the globalized world demands for multiculturalism, and commonalities amongst communities to be promoted so as to bring the world closer to accepting cultural diversities and celebrating commonalities. For these aims, educational institutions become institutions for promoting globalization by introducing various cultural and traditional beliefs to the new generation. Recently, globalization has become a popular subject of debate in national and international circiles. Globalization links individuals and institutions across the world through economic forces, digital technologies, and communication. It is moreover subjected to higher living standards, international affiliations, and multiple types of freedom. However, a major part of the world consists of under developed countries where technological advancements, communication, trade and commerce along with other economic activities are not enough to support them to be a part of the global society.

  17. Rapid Global River Flood Risk Assessment under Climate and Socioeconomic Scenarios: An Extreme Case of Eurasian region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwak, Young-joo; Magome, Jun; Hasegawa, Akira; Iwami, Yoichi

    2017-04-01

    Causing widespread devastation with massive economic damage and loss of human lives, flood disasters hamper economic growth and accelerate poverty particularly in developing countries. Globally, this trend will likely continue due to increase in flood magnitude and lack of preparedness for extreme events. In line with risk reduction efforts since the early 21st century, the monitors and governors of global river floods should pay attention to international scientific and policy communities for support to facilitate evidence-based policy making with a special interest in long-term changes due to climate change and socio-economic effects. Although advanced hydrological inundation models and risk models have been developed to reveal flood risk, hazard, exposure, and vulnerability at a river basin, it is obviously hard to identify the distribution and locations of continent-level flood risk based on national-level data. Therefore, we propose a methodological possibility for rapid global flood risk assessment with the results from its application to the two periods, i.e., Present (from 1980 to 2004) and Future (from 2075 to 2099). The method is particularly designed to effectively simplify complexities of a hazard area by calculating the differential inundation depth using GFID2M (global flood inundation depth 2-dimension model), despite low data availability. In this research, we addressed the question of which parts in the Eurasian region (8E to 180E, 0N to 60N) can be found as high-risk areas in terms of exposed population and economy in case of a 50-year return period flood. Economic losses were estimated according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenario, and the flood scale was defined using the annual maximum daily river discharge under the extreme conditions of climate change simulated with MRI-AGCM3.2S based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP8.5) emissions scenario. As a preliminary result, the total potential economic loss in the

  18. China's role as a global health donor in Africa: what can we learn from studying under reported resource flows?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grépin, Karen A; Fan, Victoria Y; Shen, Gordon C; Chen, Lucy

    2014-12-30

    There is a growing recognition of China's role as a global health donor, in particular in Africa, but there have been few systematic studies of the level, destination, trends, or composition of these development finance flows or a comparison of China's engagement as a donor with that of more traditional global health donors. Using newly released data from AidData on China's development finance activities in Africa, developed to track under reported resource flows, we identified 255 health, population, water, and sanitation (HPWS) projects from 2000-2012, which we descriptively analyze by activity sector, recipient country, project type, and planned activity. We compare China's activities to projects from traditional donors using data from the OECD's Development Assistance Committee (DAC) Creditor Reporting System. Since 2000, China increased the number of HPWS projects it supported in Africa and health has increased as a development priority for China. China's contributions are large, ranking it among the top 10 bilateral global health donors to Africa. Over 50% of the HPWS projects target infrastructure, 40% target human resource development, and the provision of equipment and drugs is also common. Malaria is an important disease priority but HIV is not. We find little evidence that China targets health aid preferentially to natural resource rich countries. China is an important global health donor to Africa but contrasts with traditional DAC donors through China's focus on health system inputs and on malaria. Although better data are needed, particularly through more transparent aid data reporting across ministries and agencies, China's approach to South-South cooperation represents an important and distinct source of financial assistance for health in Africa.

  19. Comprehensive evaluation of global energy interconnection development index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Lin; Zhang, Yi

    2018-04-01

    Under the background of building global energy interconnection and realizing green and low-carbon development, this article constructed the global energy interconnection development index system which based on the current situation of global energy interconnection development. Through using the entropy method for the weight analysis of global energy interconnection development index, and then using gray correlation method to analyze the selected countries, this article got the global energy interconnection development index ranking and level classification.

  20. Globalization of Innovation : Manifestation, Determinants and ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    China and India are now considered the favored locations for technology outsourcing. But, compared to the amount of literature on the globalization of trade in commodities, services and capital, the globalization of innovation is an under-researched area. This project came out of an IDRC-supported consultation workshop, ...

  1. Development of international labor migration in the dynamics of globalization processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rubinskaya Eteri, D.

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The current characteristics of international migration caused by the qualitative changes that occur in the global economy under influence of increasing globalization. The paper attempts to suggest periodization of the global economy development and to identify features of international labor migration occurred under the influence of deep changes in the world economy. During this period, the author identifies three stages in the formation of globalization, the transition criterion from one to other is the degree of world economy changes under the influence of the productive forces development and the major social and political transformations resulted in qualitative changes in the processes of international labor migration. At the same time in the context of globalization the place and role of international labor migration changes in the global economy system: migration becomes a means of promoting the globalization of countries and regions, the most important factor of demographic development and economic growth.

  2. Global hydrological droughts in the 21st century under a changing hydrological regime

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Wanders

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change very likely impacts future hydrological drought characteristics across the world. Here, we quantify the impact of climate change on future low flows and associated hydrological drought characteristics on a global scale using an alternative drought identification approach that considers adaptation to future changes in hydrological regime. The global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB was used to simulate daily discharge at 0.5° globally for 1971–2099. The model was forced with CMIP5 climate projections taken from five global circulation models (GCMs and four emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways, RCPs, from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. Drought events occur when discharge is below a threshold. The conventional variable threshold (VTM was calculated by deriving the threshold from the period 1971–2000. The transient variable threshold (VTMt is a non-stationary approach, where the threshold is based on the discharge values of the previous 30 years implying the threshold to vary every year during the 21st century. The VTMt adjusts to gradual changes in the hydrological regime as response to climate change. Results show a significant negative trend in the low flow regime over the 21st century for large parts of South America, southern Africa, Australia and the Mediterranean. In 40–52% of the world reduced low flows are projected, while increased low flows are found in the snow-dominated climates. In 27% of the global area both the drought duration and the deficit volume are expected to increase when applying the VTMt. However, this area will significantly increase to 62% when the VTM is applied. The mean global area in drought, with the VTMt, remains rather constant (11.7 to 13.4%, compared to the substantial increase when the VTM is applied (11.7 to 20%. The study illustrates that an alternative drought identification that considers adaptation to an altered hydrological regime has a

  3. Introduction to Global Urban Climatology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varquez, A. C. G.; Kanda, M.; Kawano, N.; Darmanto, N. S.; Dong, Y.

    2016-12-01

    Urban heat island (UHI) is a widely investigated phenomenon in the field of urban climate characterized by the warming of urban areas relative to its surrounding rural environs. Being able to understand the mechanism behind the UHI formation of a city and distinguish its impact from that of global climate change is indispensable when identifying adaptation and mitigation strategies. However, the lack of UHI studies many cities especially for developing countries makes it difficult to generalize the mechanism for UHI formation. Thus, there is an impending demand for studies that focus on the simultaneous analyses of UHI and its trends throughout the world. Hence, we propose a subfield of urban climatology, called "global urban climatology" (GUC), which mainly focuses on the uniform understanding of urban climates across all cities, globally. By using globally applicable methodologies to quantify and compare urban heat islands of cities with diverse backgrounds, including their geography, climate, socio-demography, and other factors, a universal understanding of the mechanisms underlying the formation of the phenomenon can be established. The implementation of GUC involves the use of globally acquired historical observation networks, gridded meteorological parameters from climate models, global geographic information system datasets; the construction of a distributed urban parameter database; and the development of techniques necessary to model the urban climate. Research under GUC can be categorized into three approaches. The collaborative approach (1st) relies on the collection of data from micro-scale experiments conducted worldwide with the aid or development of professional social networking platforms; the analytical approach (2nd) relies on the use of global weather station datasets and their corresponding objectively analysed global outputs; and the numerical approach (3rd) relies on the global estimation of high-resolution urban-representative parameters as

  4. Is globalization healthy: a statistical indicator analysis of the impacts of globalization on health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martens, Pim; Akin, Su-Mia; Maud, Huynen; Mohsin, Raza

    2010-09-17

    It is clear that globalization is something more than a purely economic phenomenon manifesting itself on a global scale. Among the visible manifestations of globalization are the greater international movement of goods and services, financial capital, information and people. In addition, there are technological developments, more transboundary cultural exchanges, facilitated by the freer trade of more differentiated products as well as by tourism and immigration, changes in the political landscape and ecological consequences. In this paper, we link the Maastricht Globalization Index with health indicators to analyse if more globalized countries are doing better in terms of infant mortality rate, under-five mortality rate, and adult mortality rate. The results indicate a positive association between a high level of globalization and low mortality rates. In view of the arguments that globalization provides winners and losers, and might be seen as a disequalizing process, we should perhaps be careful in interpreting the observed positive association as simple evidence that globalization is mostly good for our health. It is our hope that a further analysis of health impacts of globalization may help in adjusting and optimising the process of globalization on every level in the direction of a sustainable and healthy development for all.

  5. Is globalization healthy: a statistical indicator analysis of the impacts of globalization on health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martens Pim

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract It is clear that globalization is something more than a purely economic phenomenon manifesting itself on a global scale. Among the visible manifestations of globalization are the greater international movement of goods and services, financial capital, information and people. In addition, there are technological developments, more transboundary cultural exchanges, facilitated by the freer trade of more differentiated products as well as by tourism and immigration, changes in the political landscape and ecological consequences. In this paper, we link the Maastricht Globalization Index with health indicators to analyse if more globalized countries are doing better in terms of infant mortality rate, under-five mortality rate, and adult mortality rate. The results indicate a positive association between a high level of globalization and low mortality rates. In view of the arguments that globalization provides winners and losers, and might be seen as a disequalizing process, we should perhaps be careful in interpreting the observed positive association as simple evidence that globalization is mostly good for our health. It is our hope that a further analysis of health impacts of globalization may help in adjusting and optimising the process of globalization on every level in the direction of a sustainable and healthy development for all.

  6. Global Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindberg Christensen, Lars; Russo, P.

    2009-05-01

    IYA2009 is a global collaboration between almost 140 nations and more than 50 international organisations sharing the same vision. Besides the common brand, mission, vision and goals, IAU established eleven cornerstones programmes to support the different IYA2009 stakeholder to organize events, activities under a common umbrella. These are global activities centred on specific themes and are aligned with IYA2009's main goals. Whether it is the support and promotion of women in astronomy, the preservation of dark-sky sites around the world or educating and explaining the workings of the Universe to millions, the eleven Cornerstones are key elements in the success of IYA2009. However, the process of implementing global projects across cultural boundaries is challenging and needs central coordination to preserve the pre-established goals. During this talk we will examine the ups and downs of coordinating such a project and present an overview of the principal achievements for the Cornerstones so far.

  7. Slow reception and under-citedness in climate change research: A case study of Charles David Keeling, discoverer of the risk of global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marx, Werner; Haunschild, Robin; French, Bernie; Bornmann, Lutz

    2017-01-01

    The Keeling curve has become a chemical landmark, whereas the papers by Charles David Keeling about the underlying carbon dioxide measurements are not cited as often as can be expected against the backdrop of his final approval. In this bibliometric study, we analyze Keeling's papers as a case study for under-citedness of climate change publications. Three possible reasons for the under-citedness of Keeling's papers are discussed: (1) The discourse on global cooling at the starting time of Keeling's measurement program, (2) the underestimation of what is often seen as "routine science", and (3) the amount of implicit/informal citations at the expense of explicit/formal (reference-based) citations. Those reasons may have contributed more or less to the slow reception and the under-citedness of Keeling's seminal works.

  8. Cyclones and extreme windstorm events over Europe under climate change: Global and regional climate model diagnostics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leckebusch, G. C.; Ulbrich, U.

    2003-04-01

    More than any changes of the climate system mean state conditions, the development of extreme events may influence social, economic and legal aspects of our society. This linkage results from the impact of extreme climate events (natural hazards) on environmental systems which again are directly linked to human activities. Prominent examples from the recent past are the record breaking rainfall amounts of August 2002 in central Europe which produced widespread floodings or the wind storm Lothar of December 1999. Within the MICE (Modelling the Impact of Climate Extremes) project framework an assessment of the impact of changes in extremes will be done. The investigation is carried out for several different impact categories as agriculture, energy use and property damage. Focus is laid on the diagnostics of GCM and RCM simulations under different climate change scenarios. In this study we concentrate on extreme windstorms and their relationship to cyclone activity in the global HADCM3 as well as in the regional HADRM3 model under two climate change scenarios (SRESA2a, B2a). In order to identify cyclones we used an objective algorithm from Murry and Simmonds which was widely tested under several different conditions. A slight increase in the occurrence of systems is identified above northern parts of central Europe for both scenarios. For more severe systems (core pressure Spain) a shift to more deep cyclones connected with an increasing number of strong wind events is found.

  9. Simulating phenological shifts in French temperate forests under two climatic change scenarios and four driving global circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lebourgeois, François; Pierrat, Jean-Claude; Perez, Vincent; Piedallu, Christian; Cecchini, Sébastien; Ulrich, Erwin

    2010-09-01

    After modeling the large-scale climate response patterns of leaf unfolding, leaf coloring and growing season length of evergreen and deciduous French temperate trees, we predicted the effects of eight future climate scenarios on phenological events. We used the ground observations from 103 temperate forests (10 species and 3,708 trees) from the French Renecofor Network and for the period 1997-2006. We applied RandomForest algorithms to predict phenological events from climatic and ecological variables. With the resulting models, we drew maps of phenological events throughout France under present climate and under two climatic change scenarios (A2, B2) and four global circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM2, CSIRO2 and PCM). We compared current observations and predicted values for the periods 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. On average, spring development of oaks precedes that of beech, which precedes that of conifers. Annual cycles in budburst and leaf coloring are highly correlated with January, March-April and October-November weather conditions through temperature, global solar radiation or potential evapotranspiration depending on species. At the end of the twenty-first century, each model predicts earlier budburst (mean: 7 days) and later leaf coloring (mean: 13 days) leading to an average increase in the growing season of about 20 days (for oaks and beech stands). The A2-HadCM3 hypothesis leads to an increase of up to 30 days in many areas. As a consequence of higher predicted warming during autumn than during winter or spring, shifts in leaf coloring dates appear greater than trends in leaf unfolding. At a regional scale, highly differing climatic response patterns were observed.

  10. Fast simulation of reconstructed phylogenies under global time-dependent birth-death processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Höhna, Sebastian

    2013-06-01

    Diversification rates and patterns may be inferred from reconstructed phylogenies. Both the time-dependent and the diversity-dependent birth-death process can produce the same observed patterns of diversity over time. To develop and test new models describing the macro-evolutionary process of diversification, generic and fast algorithms to simulate under these models are necessary. Simulations are not only important for testing and developing models but play an influential role in the assessment of model fit. In the present article, I consider as the model a global time-dependent birth-death process where each species has the same rates but rates may vary over time. For this model, I derive the likelihood of the speciation times from a reconstructed phylogenetic tree and show that each speciation event is independent and identically distributed. This fact can be used to simulate efficiently reconstructed phylogenetic trees when conditioning on the number of species, the time of the process or both. I show the usability of the simulation by approximating the posterior predictive distribution of a birth-death process with decreasing diversification rates applied on a published bird phylogeny (family Cettiidae). The methods described in this manuscript are implemented in the R package TESS, available from the repository CRAN (http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/TESS/). Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

  11. Global Reverse Supply Chain Redesign for Household Plastic Waste under the Emission Trading Scheme

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bing, X.; Bloemhof-Ruwaard, J.M.; Chabaane, A.; Vorst, van der J.G.A.J.

    2015-01-01

    With increasing global resource scarcity, waste becomes a resource that can be managed globally. A reverse supply chain network for waste recycling needs to process all the waste with minimum costs and environmental impact. As re-processing of waste is one of the major sources of pollution in the

  12. Water resources conservation and nitrogen pollution reduction under global food trade and agricultural intensification

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, Wenfeng; Yang, Hong; Liu, Yu; Kummu, Matti; Hoekstra, Arjen Y.; Liu, Junguo; Schulin, Rainer

    2018-01-01

    Global food trade entails virtual flows of agricultural resources and pollution across countries. Here we performed a global-scale assessment of impacts of international food trade on blue water use, total water use, and nitrogen (N) inputs and on N losses in maize, rice, and wheat production. We

  13. A Global Rapid Integrated Monitoring System for Water Cycle and Water Resource Assessment (Global-RIMS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roads, John; Voeroesmarty, Charles

    2005-01-01

    The main focus of our work was to solidify underlying data sets, the data processing tools and the modeling environment needed to perform a series of long-term global and regional hydrological simulations leading eventually to routine hydrometeorological predictions. A water and energy budget synthesis was developed for the Mississippi River Basin (Roads et al. 2003), in order to understand better what kinds of errors exist in current hydrometeorological data sets. This study is now being extended globally with a larger number of observations and model based data sets under the new NASA NEWS program. A global comparison of a number of precipitation data sets was subsequently carried out (Fekete et al. 2004) in which it was further shown that reanalysis precipitation has substantial problems, which subsequently led us to the development of a precipitation assimilation effort (Nunes and Roads 2005). We believe that with current levels of model skill in predicting precipitation that precipitation assimilation is necessary to get the appropriate land surface forcing.

  14. Beyond the discourse of globalization.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Robertson

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the ways in which discourse concerning planet earth is being transcended. Specifically, attention is drawn to the increasingly overlapping relationship between the work of philosophers and anthropologists, one the one hand, and astrophysicists on the other. Woven into the discussion are the issues of the neglect of global consciousness and culture in comparison with the more usual concern with global connectivity. In this respect it is argued that globalization, as it is normally understood, can be regarded as self-destroying when it is considered under the rubric of glocalization. The paper concludes with discussion of the possibility of some form of global governance in the light of the present chaotic state of global affairs. It is argued that some relatively clear-cut image of the world as a whole is a precondition of any systematic attempt to resolve this problem. The attempt to provide such an image rests upon the author’s previous discussions of the global field.

  15. Uncertainty of Methane Fluxes in a Northern Peatland under Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    MA, S.; Jiang, J.; Huang, Y.; Luo, Y.

    2016-12-01

    Large uncertainty exists in predicting responses of methane fluxes to future climate change. How the uncertainty is related to methane production, oxidation, diffusion, ebullition and plant mediated transportation is still poorly understood, despite of the fact that these processes related to methane emission have been theoretically well represented. At the same time, in methane models many of the parameters are given to an empirical value according to measurements or models decades ago. It is unrealistic to testify all the parameters included in methane modules by actual in situ measurements due to the fact of high temporal and spatial variation. However it would be convincible and feasible to measure in field if models could offer better sampling strategy by telling which parameter is more important for estimation of methane emission, and project a constrained value for key parameters in each process. These feedbacks from field measurements could in turn testify the model accuracy for methane emission projection, as well as the optimization of model structures. We incorporated methane module into an existing process-based Terrestrial ECOsystem model (TECO), to simulate methane emission in a boreal peatland forest, northern Minnesota (Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Climatic and Environmental Change Experiment, SPRUCE). We performed sensitivity test and picked key parameters from the five processes for data assimilation using the Bayesian probability inversion and a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique. We were able to constrain key parameters related to the five processes in the TECO-SPRUCE Methane model. The constrained model simulated daily methane emission fitted quite well with the data from field measurements. The improvement of more realistic and site-specific parameter values allow for reasonable projections of methane emission under different global changing scenarios, warming and elevated CO2, for instance, given the fact that methane emission

  16. Global sensitivity analysis for an integrated model for simulation of nitrogen dynamics under the irrigation with treated wastewater.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Huaiwei; Zhu, Yan; Yang, Jinzhong; Wang, Xiugui

    2015-11-01

    As the amount of water resources that can be utilized for agricultural production is limited, the reuse of treated wastewater (TWW) for irrigation is a practical solution to alleviate the water crisis in China. The process-based models, which estimate nitrogen dynamics under irrigation, are widely used to investigate the best irrigation and fertilization management practices in developed and developing countries. However, for modeling such a complex system for wastewater reuse, it is critical to conduct a sensitivity analysis to determine numerous input parameters and their interactions that contribute most to the variance of the model output for the development of process-based model. In this study, application of a comprehensive global sensitivity analysis for nitrogen dynamics was reported. The objective was to compare different global sensitivity analysis (GSA) on the key parameters for different model predictions of nitrogen and crop growth modules. The analysis was performed as two steps. Firstly, Morris screening method, which is one of the most commonly used screening method, was carried out to select the top affected parameters; then, a variance-based global sensitivity analysis method (extended Fourier amplitude sensitivity test, EFAST) was used to investigate more thoroughly the effects of selected parameters on model predictions. The results of GSA showed that strong parameter interactions exist in crop nitrogen uptake, nitrogen denitrification, crop yield, and evapotranspiration modules. Among all parameters, one of the soil physical-related parameters named as the van Genuchten air entry parameter showed the largest sensitivity effects on major model predictions. These results verified that more effort should be focused on quantifying soil parameters for more accurate model predictions in nitrogen- and crop-related predictions, and stress the need to better calibrate the model in a global sense. This study demonstrates the advantages of the GSA on a

  17. Global Entrepreneurship and the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-09-01

    Global Entrepreneurship and the United States by Zoltan J. Acs Laszlo Szerb Ruxton, MD 21204 for under contract number SBAHQ-09...SUBTITLE Global Entrepreneurship and the United States 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT...3 2.1. Assessing Entrepreneurship ..................................................................................4 2.2. Stages of Development

  18. Nuclear parton distributions with the LHeC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klein, M.

    2016-01-01

    Nuclear parton distributions are far from being known today because of an infant experimental base. Based on design studies of the LHeC and using new simulations, of the inclusive neutral and charged current cross section measurements and of the strange, charm and beauty densities in nuclei, it is demonstrated how that energy frontier electron-ion collider would unfold the complete set of nuclear parton distributions (nPDFs) in a hugely extended kinematic range of deep inelastic scattering, extending in Bjorken x down to values near to 10 -6 in the perturbative domain. Together with a very precise and complete set of proton PDFs, the LHeC nPDFs will thoroughly change the theoretical understanding of parton dynamics and structure inside hadrons. This contribution is organised as follows: Section 2 summarises the status of the current nPDF determinations and presents a summary of the LHeC data simulation. Section 3 briefly summarises initial results of a study of the determination of PDFs in electron-deuteron scattering. Section 4 presents the nPDF simulation using LHeC data performed within an adapted EPS09 pQCD framework. Section 5 discusses the gluon distribution and the possible search for saturation of the rise of the gluon density towards low x. Section 6 includes the determination of the strange, charm and beauty distributions in nuclei from a future eA operation of the LHeC. A brief summary is presented in Section 7

  19. On the Globalization of the Film Industry

    OpenAIRE

    Lorenzen, Mark

    2010-01-01

    The paper presents stylized facts about the economic organisation of the film industry, arguing that while we know a lot about production, specialization and internationalization, the complex processes of globalization are still under-researched. The paper concludes with a research agenda of how to address globalization.

  20. Analysis on diurnal global geomagnetic variability under quiet-time conditions

    OpenAIRE

    Klausner, Virginia; Domingues, Margarete Oliveira; Mendes Jr, Odim; Papa, Andres Reinaldo Rodriguez; Frick, Peter

    2012-01-01

    This paper describes a methodology (or treatment) to establish a representative signal of the global magnetic diurnal variation based on a spatial distribution in both longitude and latitude of a set of magnetic stations as well as their magnetic behavior on a time basis. For that, we apply the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) technique implemented using gapped wavelet transform and wavelet correlation. The continuous gapped wavelet and the wavelet correlation techniques were used to descri...

  1. Nature-based solutions for urban landscapes under post-industrialization and globalization: Barcelona versus Shanghai.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Peilei; Ouyang, Zutao; Basnou, Corina; Pino, Joan; Park, Hogeun; Chen, Jiquan

    2017-07-01

    Using Barcelona and Shanghai as case studies, we examined the nature-based solutions (NBS) in urban settings-specifically within cities experiencing post-industrialization and globalization. Our specific research questions are: (1) What are the spatiotemporal changes in urban built-up land and green space in Barcelona and Shanghai? (2) What are the relationships between economic development, exemplified by post-industrialization, globalization, and urban green space? Urban land use and green space change were evaluated using data derived from a variety of sources, including satellite images, landscape matrix indicators, and a land conversion matrix. The relationships between economic development, globalization, and environmental quality were analyzed through partial least squares structural equation modeling based on secondary statistical data. Both Barcelona and Shanghai have undergone rapid urbanization, with urban expansion in Barcelona beginning in the 1960s-1970s and in Shanghai in the last decade. While Barcelona's urban green space and green space per capita began declining between the 1950s and 1990s, they increased slightly over the past two decades. Shanghai, however, has consistently and significantly improved urban green space and green space per capita over the past six decades, especially since the economic reform in 1978. Economic development has a direct and significant influence on urban green space for both cities and post-industrialization had served as the main driving force for urban landscape change in Barcelona and Shanghai. Based on secondary statistical and qualitative data from on-site observations and interviews with local experts, we highlighted the institution's role in NBS planning. Furthermore, aspiration to become a global or globalizing city motivated both cities to use NBS planning as a place-making tool to attract global investment, which is reflected in various governing policies and regulations. The cities' effort to achieve a

  2. Global warming and climate change: control methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laal, M.; Aliramaie, A.

    2008-01-01

    This paper aimed at finding causes of global warming and ways to bring it under control. Data based on scientific opinion as given by synthesis reports of news, articles, web sites, and books. global warming is the observed and projected increases in average temperature of Earth's atmosphere and oceans. Carbon dioxide and other air pollution that is collecting in the atmosphere like a thickening blanket, trapping the sun's heat and causing the planet to warm up. Pollution is one of the biggest man-made problems. Burning fossil fuels is the main factor of pollution. As average temperature increases, habitats, species and people are threatened by drought, changes in rainfall, altered seasons, and more violent storms and floods. Indeed the life cycle of nuclear power results in relatively little pollution. Energy efficiency, solar, wind and other renewable fuels are other weapons against global warming . Human activity, primarily burning fossil fuels, is the major driving factor in global warming . Curtailing the release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere by reducing use of oil, gasoline, coal and employment of alternate energy, sources are the tools for keeping global warming under control. global warming can be slowed and stopped, with practical actions thal yield a cleaner, healthier atmosphere

  3. Structuring Successful Global Virtual Teams

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    e.g., email) to a lot (e.g., video conferencing ). Finally, global teams can vary in their level of synchronicity, or the degree to which a team’s... electronic communication. Thus, we view these types of teams as analogous enough that they can be discussed together under the overarching term of “global...emergence. Balthazard, Waldman, and Warren (2009) found that communication media that mim- ics face-to-face interactions (e.g., video conferencing

  4. Modelling of diurnal cycle under climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eliseev, A V; Bezmenov, K V; Demchenko, P F; Mokhov, I I; Petoukhov, V K [Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow (Russian Federation). Inst. of Atmospheric Physics

    1996-12-31

    The observed diurnal temperature range (DTR) displays remarkable change during last 30 years. Land air DTR generally decreases under global climate warming due to more significant night minimum temperature increase in comparison with day maximum temperature increase. Atmosphere hydrological cycle characteristics change under global warming and possible background aerosol atmosphere content change may cause essential errors in the estimation of DTR tendencies of change under global warming. The result of this study is the investigation of cloudiness effect on the DTR and blackbody radiative emissivity diurnal range. It is shown that in some cases (particularly in cold seasons) it results in opposite change in DTR and BD at doubled CO{sub 2} atmosphere content. The influence of background aerosol is the same as the cloudiness one

  5. Modelling of diurnal cycle under climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eliseev, A.V.; Bezmenov, K.V.; Demchenko, P.F.; Mokhov, I.I.; Petoukhov, V.K. [Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow (Russian Federation). Inst. of Atmospheric Physics

    1995-12-31

    The observed diurnal temperature range (DTR) displays remarkable change during last 30 years. Land air DTR generally decreases under global climate warming due to more significant night minimum temperature increase in comparison with day maximum temperature increase. Atmosphere hydrological cycle characteristics change under global warming and possible background aerosol atmosphere content change may cause essential errors in the estimation of DTR tendencies of change under global warming. The result of this study is the investigation of cloudiness effect on the DTR and blackbody radiative emissivity diurnal range. It is shown that in some cases (particularly in cold seasons) it results in opposite change in DTR and BD at doubled CO{sub 2} atmosphere content. The influence of background aerosol is the same as the cloudiness one

  6. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH NEWS #37: PUBLICATION OF "OUR CHANGING PLANET: THE FY 2002 U.S. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM"

    Science.gov (United States)

    The EPA Global Change Research Program is pleased to inform you of the publication of the new Our Changing Planet: The FY 2002 U.S. Global Change Research Program. This annual report to the Congress was prepared under the auspices of the Committee on Environment and Natural Reso...

  7. Trait acclimation mitigates mortality risks of tropical canopy trees under global warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank eSterck

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available There is a heated debate about the effect of global change on tropical forests. Many scientists predict large-scale tree mortality while others point to mitigating roles of CO2 fertilization and – the notoriously unknown – physiological trait acclimation of trees. In this opinion article we provided a first quantification of the potential of trait acclimation to mitigate the negative effects of warming on tropical canopy tree growth and survival. We applied a physiological tree growth model that incorporates trait acclimation through an optimization approach. Our model estimated the maximum effect of acclimation when trees optimize traits that are strongly plastic on a week to annual time scale (leaf photosynthetic capacity, total leaf area, stem sapwood area to maximize carbon gain. We simulated tree carbon gain for temperatures (25-35ºC and ambient CO2 concentrations (390-800 ppm predicted for the 21st century. Full trait acclimation increased simulated carbon gain by up to 10-20% and the maximum tolerated temperature by up to 2ºC, thus reducing risks of tree death under predicted warming. Functional trait acclimation may thus increase the resilience of tropical trees to warming, but cannot prevent tree death during extremely hot and dry years at current CO2 levels. We call for incorporating trait acclimation in field and experimental studies of plant functional traits, and in models that predict responses of tropical forests to climate change.

  8. Trait Acclimation Mitigates Mortality Risks of Tropical Canopy Trees under Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sterck, Frank; Anten, Niels P. R.; Schieving, Feike; Zuidema, Pieter A.

    2016-01-01

    There is a heated debate about the effect of global change on tropical forests. Many scientists predict large-scale tree mortality while others point to mitigating roles of CO2 fertilization and – the notoriously unknown – physiological trait acclimation of trees. In this opinion article we provided a first quantification of the potential of trait acclimation to mitigate the negative effects of warming on tropical canopy tree growth and survival. We applied a physiological tree growth model that incorporates trait acclimation through an optimization approach. Our model estimated the maximum effect of acclimation when trees optimize traits that are strongly plastic on a week to annual time scale (leaf photosynthetic capacity, total leaf area, stem sapwood area) to maximize carbon gain. We simulated tree carbon gain for temperatures (25–35°C) and ambient CO2 concentrations (390–800 ppm) predicted for the 21st century. Full trait acclimation increased simulated carbon gain by up to 10–20% and the maximum tolerated temperature by up to 2°C, thus reducing risks of tree death under predicted warming. Functional trait acclimation may thus increase the resilience of tropical trees to warming, but cannot prevent tree death during extremely hot and dry years at current CO2 levels. We call for incorporating trait acclimation in field and experimental studies of plant functional traits, and in models that predict responses of tropical forests to climate change. PMID:27242814

  9. The growth of finfish in global open-ocean aquaculture under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klinger, Dane H; Levin, Simon A; Watson, James R

    2017-10-11

    Aquaculture production is projected to expand from land-based operations to the open ocean as demand for seafood grows and competition increases for inputs to land-based aquaculture, such as freshwater and suitable land. In contrast to land-based production, open-ocean aquaculture is constrained by oceanographic factors, such as current speeds and seawater temperature, which are dynamic in time and space, and cannot easily be controlled. As such, the potential for offshore aquaculture to increase seafood production is tied to the physical state of the oceans. We employ a novel spatial model to estimate the potential of open-ocean finfish aquaculture globally, given physical, biological and technological constraints. Finfish growth potential for three common aquaculture species representing different thermal guilds-Atlantic salmon ( Salmo salar ), gilthead seabream ( Sparus aurata ) and cobia ( Rachycentron canadum )-is compared across species and regions and with climate change, based on outputs of a high-resolution global climate model. Globally, there are ample areas that are physically suitable for fish growth and potential expansion of the nascent aquaculture industry. The effects of climate change are heterogeneous across species and regions, but areas with existing aquaculture industries are likely to see increases in growth rates. In areas where climate change results in reduced growth rates, adaptation measures, such as selective breeding, can probably offset potential production losses. © 2017 The Author(s).

  10. Global isoprene and monoterpene emissions under changing climate, vegetation, CO2 and land use

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hantson, Stijn; Knorr, Wolfgang; Schurgers, Guy

    2017-01-01

    Plants emit large quantities of isoprene and monoterpenes, the main components of global biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions. BVOCs have an important impact on the atmospheric composition of methane, and of short-lived radiative forcing agents (e.g. ozone, aerosols etc.). It is th......Plants emit large quantities of isoprene and monoterpenes, the main components of global biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions. BVOCs have an important impact on the atmospheric composition of methane, and of short-lived radiative forcing agents (e.g. ozone, aerosols etc.......). It is therefore necessary to know how isoprene and monoterpene emissions have changed over the past and how future changes in climate, land-use and other factors will impact them. Here we present emission estimates of isoprene and monoterpenes over the period 1901–2 100 based on the dynamic global vegetation...... model LPJ-GUESS, including the effects of all known important drivers. We find that both isoprene and monoterpene emissions at the beginning of the 20th century were higher than at present. While anthropogenic land-use change largely drives the global decreasing trend for isoprene over the 20th century...

  11. RESEARCHING FACTORS OF INNOVATIVE ACTIVITIES OF AGRARIAN BUSINESS OF UKRAINE UNDER GLOBALIZATION OF THE WORLD ECONOMY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vadim Sidorov

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Modern processes of reforming the agroindustrial complex of Ukraine, a large part of which belongs to the agrarian sector, under the globalization of world economic processes in the agricultural market require that domestic agroindustrial enterprises improve and rationally manage innovative activities (IА. The effective solution of problems that arise in this context in the rapidly changing economic and social and political environment requires that analytical methods in the management of the enterprises of the agroindustrial complex (AIC be used on the basis of the tools of economic and mathematical modelling, taking into account characteristics of agrarian production. The main approaches to modelling systems related to IА management are either descriptive or insufficiently formalized, and suggest virtual experimenting with IA management, avoiding the possibility of assessing the impact and consequences of different management options in the long view, minimizing IA risks when making managerial decisions. The subject matter of the article is the tools of economic and mathematical simulation of the development of innovative activities of the domestic agroindustrial complex. The goal is to develop tools for modelling innovative activities of enterprises of the agroindustrial complex of Ukraine in the form of analytical dependencies of impact factors. The objective is to research the dynamics of innovative activities of enterprises of the agroindustrial complex of Ukraine in terms of its components under the globalization of world economic processes in the market of agricultural products. General scientific methods are used, such as system analysis – to determine the peculiarities of development of IА of agroindustrial production in Ukraine, factor analysis – to formalize the cause-and-effect relationships of the investigated factors of AIC enterprises impact on IA. The following results were obtained: on the basis of the analysis of the

  12. Faith & Globalization:the Challenge for Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blair, Tony; Bardsley, Craig

    2013-01-01

    Globalization continues to transform how universities work: the students and subjects they teach, and the way they conduct and disseminate research. With tight budgets everywhere in the wake of the global economic downturn, universities are under increasing pressure to demonstrate value for money to the wider public from their research and…

  13. Changes in Extremely Hot Summers over the Global Land Area under Various Warming Targets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lei; Huang, Jianbin; Luo, Yong; Yao, Yao; Zhao, Zongci

    2015-01-01

    Summer temperature extremes over the global land area were investigated by comparing 26 models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) with observations from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the Climate Research Unit (CRU). Monthly data of the observations and models were averaged for each season, and statistics were calculated for individual models before averaging them to obtain ensemble means. The summers with temperature anomalies (relative to 1951-1980) exceeding 3σ (σ is based on the local internal variability) are defined as "extremely hot". The models well reproduced the statistical characteristics evolution, and partly captured the spatial distributions of historical summer temperature extremes. If the global mean temperature increases 2°C relative to the pre-industrial level, "extremely hot" summers are projected to occur over nearly 40% of the land area (multi-model ensemble mean projection). Summers that exceed 5σ warming are projected to occur over approximately 10% of the global land area, which were rarely observed during the reference period. Scenarios reaching warming levels of 3°C to 5°C were also analyzed. After exceeding the 5°C warming target, "extremely hot" summers are projected to occur throughout the entire global land area, and summers that exceed 5σ warming would become common over 70% of the land area. In addition, the areas affected by "extremely hot" summers are expected to rapidly expand by more than 25%/°C as the global mean temperature increases by up to 3°C before slowing to less than 16%/°C as the temperature continues to increase by more than 3°C. The area that experiences summers with warming of 5σ or more above the warming target of 2°C is likely to maintain rapid expansion of greater than 17%/°C. To reduce the impacts and damage from severely hot summers, the global mean temperature increase should remain low.

  14. Combined equations for estimating global solar radiation: Projection of radiation field over Japan under global warming conditions by statistical downscaling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iizumi, T.; Nishimori, M.; Yokozawa, M.

    2008-01-01

    For this study, we developed a new statistical model to estimate the daily accumulated global solar radiation on the earth's surface and used the model to generate a high-resolution climate change scenario of the radiation field in Japan. The statistical model mainly relies on precipitable water vapor calculated from air temperature and relative humidity on the surface to estimate seasonal changes in global solar radiation. On the other hand, to estimate daily radiation fluctuations, the model uses either a diurnal temperature range or relative humidity. The diurnal temperature range, calculated from the daily maximum and minimum temperatures, and relative humidity is a general output of most climate models, and pertinent observation data are comparatively easy to access. The statistical model performed well when estimating the monthly mean value, daily fluctuation statistics, and regional differences in the radiation field in Japan. To project the change in the radiation field for the years 2081 to 2100, we applied the statistical model to the climate change scenario of a high-resolution Regional Climate Model with a 20-km mesh size (RCM20) developed at the Meteorological Research Institute based on the Special Report for Emission Scenario (SRES)-A2. The projected change shows the following tendency: global solar radiation will increase in the warm season and decrease in the cool season in many areas of Japan, indicating that global warming may cause changes in the radiation field in Japan. The generated climate change scenario for the radiation field is linked to long-term and short-term changes in air temperature and relative humidity obtained from the RCM20 and, consequently, is expected to complement the RCM20 datasets for an impact assessment study in the agricultural sector

  15. Global Inequality: An Introduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michelle Bata

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Global inequality has been little analyzed by sociologists despite their claim to be the scienti?c experts most in charge of the study of human inequalities and social strati?cation. Most undergraduate courses on social inequalities study race, class and gender without ever acknowledging that the greatest inequalities are between those individuals and households that live in developed versus less developed societies. The amount of international inequality has vastly outweighed within country inequalities since at least the 1870s when a wave of economic globalization under the Pax Britannica increased average wages in the core while leaving most of the periphery and the semiperiphery at subsistence levels. Increasing inequality was one of the most important consequences of nineteenth century globalization, and this fact is pregnant with importance for those who seek to understand what the consequences of twentieth century globalization may be. Resistance to global capitalism and attacks on symbols of power are likely to increase, just as they did in the decades following the great expansion of trade and investment in the last decades of the nineteenth century. Research into the causes of increasing inequalities is thus extremely important for social scientists, policy makers and global citizens who need to understand how the world-system works in order to change it.

  16. Susceptibility to a metal under global warming is shaped by thermal adaptation along a latitudinal gradient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinh Van, Khuong; Janssens, Lizanne; Debecker, Sara; De Jonge, Maarten; Lambret, Philippe; Nilsson-Örtman, Viktor; Bervoets, Lieven; Stoks, Robby

    2013-09-01

    Global warming and contamination represent two major threats to biodiversity that have the potential to interact synergistically. There is the potential for gradual local thermal adaptation and dispersal to higher latitudes to mitigate the susceptibility of organisms to contaminants and global warming at high latitudes. Here, we applied a space-for-time substitution approach to study the thermal dependence of the susceptibility of Ischnura elegans damselfly larvae to zinc in a common garden warming experiment (20 and 24 °C) with replicated populations from three latitudes spanning >1500 km in Europe. We observed a striking latitude-specific effect of temperature on the zinc-induced mortality pattern; local thermal adaptation along the latitudinal gradient made Swedish, but not French, damselfly larvae more susceptible to zinc at 24 °C. Latitude- and temperature-specific differences in zinc susceptibility may be related to the amount of energy available to defend against and repair damage since Swedish larvae showed a much stronger zinc-induced reduction of food intake at 24 °C. The pattern of local thermal adaptation indicates that the predicted temperature increase of 4 °C by 2100 will strongly magnify the impact of a contaminant such as zinc at higher latitudes unless there is thermal evolution and/or migration of lower latitude genotypes. Our results underscore the critical importance of studying the susceptibility to contaminants under realistic warming scenarios taking into account local thermal adaptation across natural temperature gradients. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. The feasibility of implementing an ecological network in The Netherlands under conditions of global change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bakker, M.M.; Alam, S.J.; Dijk, van J.; Rounsevell, T.; Spek, T.; Brink, van den A.

    2015-01-01

    Context Both global change and policy reform will affect the implementation of the National Ecological Network (NEN) in the Netherlands. Global change refers to a combination of changing groundwater tables arising from climate change and improved economic prospects for farming. Policy reform refers

  18. The feasibility of implementing an ecological network in The Netherlands under conditions of global change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bakker, Martha; Alam, Shah Jamal; van Dijk, Jerry; Rounsevell, Mark; Spek, Teun; van den Brink, Adri

    2015-01-01

    Context: Both global change and policy reform will affect the implementation of the National Ecological Network (NEN) in the Netherlands. Global change refers to a combination of changing groundwater tables arising from climate change and improved economic prospects for farming. Policy reform refers

  19. Polycentrism in Global Health Governance Scholarship Comment on "Four Challenges That Global Health Networks Face".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tosun, Jale

    2017-05-23

    Drawing on an in-depth analysis of eight global health networks, a recent essay in this journal argued that global health networks face four challenges to their effectiveness: problem definition, positioning, coalition-building, and governance. While sharing the argument of the essay concerned, in this commentary, we argue that these analytical concepts can be used to explicate a concept that has implicitly been used in global health governance scholarship for quite a few years. While already prominent in the discussion of climate change governance, for instance, global health governance scholarship could make progress by looking at global health governance as being polycentric. Concisely, polycentric forms of governance mix scales, mechanisms, and actors. Drawing on the essay, we propose a polycentric approach to the study of global health governance that incorporates coalitionbuilding tactics, internal governance and global political priority as explanatory factors. © 2018 The Author(s); Published by Kerman University of Medical Sciences. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

  20. THE DISPUTE BETWEEN POLITICAL THEOLOGY AND THE POLITICS OF THEOLOGY IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY ON THE MEANINGS OF THE POSTMODERN GLOBALIZING AND INDIVIDUALISTIC SOCIETY AND THE CHRISTIAN PERSONALIST GLOBALITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stelian MANOLACHE

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Upon the dawn of postmodernity, in the twenty-first century, we witness the emergence of a new way of thinking and of new forms of culture and life, under the ideology of globalism, whose dominance is given by the practicality and utility related to civilization, and under globality, which is the cultural aspect of globalization, pertaining to the field of culture. The two dimensions of globalization and globality, civilizational and cultural, will (requestion the principle relationship between Christianity and the new postmodern globalizing utopia, requiring to (reconsider the sense and presence of Christianity within the world, and the appropriate sociological figure of the Church, within the new reality of global and globalized humanity, in the postmodern public space. This paper deals with this ideology - globalism and the cultural manifestation of globality, and with the Orthodox answer to the new challenge of individualism and postmodern globalizing (neocollectivism.

  1. A common agenda of global challenges. Japan and U.S. pool resources to tackle global issues including population and HIV / AIDS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-05-01

    The Common Agenda for Cooperation in Global Perspective is a bilateral partnership established in 1993 between the US and Japan to address important global challenges of the 21st century such as global health and human development, including population and HIV/AIDS, global stability, protection of the global environment, and the advancement of science and technology. On the fifth anniversary of the agenda, representatives of the Japan and the US governments, international organizations, and private sectors discussed ways to further promote US-Japan cooperation under the agenda at a meeting held in Tokyo during March 12-13. Participants of the Common Agenda Open Forum also reviewed efforts made by Japan and the US under the agenda to address population and the environment. Forum participants focused upon developing new ideas for future cooperation between the governments, the private sector, and other nations, especially in the areas of health and the environment. The meeting was jointly organized by Japan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the US Department of State. Attention was also given during talks to diminishing international assistance budgets worldwide.

  2. Global scientific research commons under the Nagoya Protocol: Towards a collaborative economy model for the sharing of basic research assets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dedeurwaerdere, Tom; Melindi-Ghidi, Paolo; Broggiato, Arianna

    2016-01-01

    This paper aims to get a better understanding of the motivational and transaction cost features of building global scientific research commons, with a view to contributing to the debate on the design of appropriate policy measures under the recently adopted Nagoya Protocol. For this purpose, the paper analyses the results of a world-wide survey of managers and users of microbial culture collections, which focused on the role of social and internalized motivations, organizational networks and external incentives in promoting the public availability of upstream research assets. Overall, the study confirms the hypotheses of the social production model of information and shareable goods, but it also shows the need to complete this model. For the sharing of materials, the underlying collaborative economy in excess capacity plays a key role in addition to the social production, while for data, competitive pressures amongst scientists tend to play a bigger role.

  3. Economy of education: National and global aspects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oksana Ishchenko-Padukova

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Our paper focuses on the national economy of education. We assume that under the current conditions of the globalized world, the economy of education reveals its two-fold nature: on the one hand, it represents an element of the national economic system, and on the other, it is also a structural component of the global education system. Therefore, national economy of education is shaped up by both internal and external factors represented by national and international influences. We analyze here the functional composition and the methods of legal regulation of the economy of education under the conditions and provisions of the global geopolitical transformations. In addition, we use the empirical model of returns to education for showing the factors that impact the employability of young graduates at the labor market. Our results confirm the importance of education for achieving higher levels of income, both nationally and internationally. Finally, we come to the conclusion that its target function consists of the global promotion of national education and consolidation of national competitive position within the world education space.

  4. The future of global health education: training for equity in global health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lisa V. Adams

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Among academic institutions in the United States, interest in global health has grown substantially: by the number of students seeking global health opportunities at all stages of training, and by the increase in institutional partnerships and newly established centers, institutes, and initiatives to house global health programs at undergraduate, public health and medical schools. Witnessing this remarkable growth should compel health educators to question whether the training and guidance that we provide to students today is appropriate, and whether it will be applicable in the next decade and beyond. Given that “global health” did not exist as an academic discipline in the United States 20 years ago, what can we expect it will look like 20 years from now and how can we prepare for that future? Discussion Most clinicians and trainees today recognize the importance of true partnership and capacity building in both directions for successful international collaborations. The challenge is in the execution of these practices. There are projects around the world where this is occurring and equitable partnerships have been established. Based on our experience and observations of the current landscape of academic global health, we share a perspective on principles of engagement, highlighting instances where partnerships have thrived, and examples of where we, as a global community, have fallen short. Conclusions As the world moves beyond the charity model of global health (and its colonial roots, it is evident that the issue underlying ethical global health practice is partnership and the pursuit of health equity. Thus, achieving equity in global health education and practice ought to be central to our mission as educators and advisors when preparing trainees for careers in this field. Seeking to eliminate health inequities wherever they are ingrained will reveal the injustices around the globe and in our own cities and

  5. Public-private partnerships and responsibility under international law: a global health perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Clarke, L.

    2014-01-01

    Partnerships between the public and private sectors are an increasingly accepted method to deal with pressing global issues, such as those relating to health. Partnerships, comprised of states and international organizations (public sector) and companies, non-governmental organizations, research

  6. How global brands compete.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holt, Douglas B; Quelch, John A; Taylor, Earl L

    2004-09-01

    It's time to rethink global branding. More than two decades ago, Harvard Business School professor Theodore Levitt argued that corporations should grow by selling standardized products all over the world. But consumers in most countries had trouble relating to generic products, so executives instead strove for global scale on backstage activities such as production while customizing product features and selling techniques to local tastes. Such "glocal" strategies now rule marketing. Global branding has lost more luster recently because transnational companies have been under siege, with brands like Coca-Cola and Nike becoming lightning rods for antiglobalization protests. The instinctive reaction of most transnational companies has been to try to fly below the radar. But global brands can't escape notice. In fact, most transnational corporations don't realize that because of their power and pervasiveness, people view them differently than they do other firms. In a research project involving 3,300 consumers in 41 countries, the authors found that most people choose one global brand over another because of differences in the brands'global qualities. Ratherthan ignore the global characteristics of their brands, firms must learn to manage those characteristics. That's critical, because future growth for most companies will likely come from foreign markets. Consumers base preferences on three dimensions of global brands--quality (signaled by a company's global stature); the cultural myths that brands author; and firms' efforts to address social problems. The authors also found that it didn't matter to consumers whether the brands they bought were American--a remarkable finding considering that the study was conducted when anti-American sentiment in many nations was on the rise.

  7. Agricultural production and water use scenarios in Cyprus under global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruggeman, Adriana; Zoumides, Christos; Camera, Corrado; Pashiardis, Stelios; Zomeni, Zomenia

    2014-05-01

    In many countries of the world, food demand exceeds the total agricultural production. In semi-arid countries, agricultural water demand often also exceeds the sustainable supply of water resources. These water-stressed countries are expected to become even drier, as a result of global climate change. This will have a significant impact on the future of the agricultural sector and on food security. The aim of the AGWATER project consortium is to provide recommendations for climate change adaptation for the agricultural sector in Cyprus and the wider Mediterranean region. Gridded climate data sets, with 1-km horizontal resolution were prepared for Cyprus for 1980-2010. Regional Climate Model results were statistically downscaled, with the help of spatial weather generators. A new soil map was prepared using a predictive modelling and mapping technique and a large spatial database with soil and environmental parameters. Stakeholder meetings with agriculture and water stakeholders were held to develop future water prices, based on energy scenarios and to identify climate resilient production systems. Green houses, including also hydroponic systems, grapes, potatoes, cactus pears and carob trees were the more frequently identified production systems. The green-blue-water model, based on the FAO-56 dual crop coefficient approach, has been set up to compute agricultural water demand and yields for all crop fields in Cyprus under selected future scenarios. A set of agricultural production and water use performance indicators are computed by the model, including green and blue water use, crop yield, crop water productivity, net value of crop production and economic water productivity. This work is part of the AGWATER project - AEIFORIA/GEOGRO/0311(BIE)/06 - co-financed by the European Regional Development Fund and the Republic of Cyprus through the Research Promotion Foundation.

  8. How Could Agricultural Land Systems Contribute to Raise Food Production Under Global Change?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WU Wen-bin; YU Qiang-yi; Verburg H Peter; YOU Liang-zhi; YANG Peng; TANG Hua-jun

    2014-01-01

    To feed the increasing world population, more food needs to be produced from agricultural land systems. Solutions to produce more food with fewer resources while minimizing adverse environmental and ecological consequences require sustainable agricultural land use practices as supplementary to advanced biotechnology and agronomy. This review paper, from a land system perspective, systematically proposed and analyzed three interactive strategies that could possibly raise future food production under global change. By reviewing the current literatures, we suggest that cropland expansion is less possible amid iferce land competition, and it is likely to do less in increasing food production. Moreover, properly allocating crops in space and time is a practical way to ensure food production. Climate change, dietary shifts, and other socio-economic drivers, which would shape the demand and supply side of food systems, should be taken into consideration during the decision-making on rational land management in respect of sustainable crop choice and allocation. And ifnally, crop-speciifc agricultural intensiifcation would play a bigger role in raising future food production either by increasing the yield per unit area of individual crops or by increasing the number of crops sown on a particular area of land. Yet, only when it is done sustainably is this a much more effective strategy to maximize food production by closing yield and harvest gaps.

  9. Parasail: SIMD C library for global, semi-global, and local pairwise sequence alignments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daily, Jeff

    2016-02-10

    Sequence alignment algorithms are a key component of many bioinformatics applications. Though various fast Smith-Waterman local sequence alignment implementations have been developed for x86 CPUs, most are embedded into larger database search tools. In addition, fast implementations of Needleman-Wunsch global sequence alignment and its semi-global variants are not as widespread. This article presents the first software library for local, global, and semi-global pairwise intra-sequence alignments and improves the performance of previous intra-sequence implementations. A faster intra-sequence local pairwise alignment implementation is described and benchmarked, including new global and semi-global variants. Using a 375 residue query sequence a speed of 136 billion cell updates per second (GCUPS) was achieved on a dual Intel Xeon E5-2670 24-core processor system, the highest reported for an implementation based on Farrar's 'striped' approach. Rognes's SWIPE optimal database search application is still generally the fastest available at 1.2 to at best 2.4 times faster than Parasail for sequences shorter than 500 amino acids. However, Parasail was faster for longer sequences. For global alignments, Parasail's prefix scan implementation is generally the fastest, faster even than Farrar's 'striped' approach, however the opal library is faster for single-threaded applications. The software library is designed for 64 bit Linux, OS X, or Windows on processors with SSE2, SSE41, or AVX2. Source code is available from https://github.com/jeffdaily/parasail under the Battelle BSD-style license. Applications that require optimal alignment scores could benefit from the improved performance. For the first time, SIMD global, semi-global, and local alignments are available in a stand-alone C library.

  10. Potential distribution of Podocnemis lewyana (Reptilia: Podocnemididae) and its possible fluctuation under different global climate change scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ortiz Yusty, Carlos; Restrepo, Adriana; Paez, Vivian P

    2014-01-01

    We implemented a species distribution modelling approach to establish the potential distribution of Podocnemis lewyana, to explore the climatic factors that may influence the species' distribution and to evaluate possible changes in distribution under future climate scenarios. The distribution models predicted a continuous distribution from south to north along the Magdalena River, from Rivera and Palermo in the Department of Huila to the departments of Atlantico and Magdalena in the north. Temperature was the variable most influential in the distribution of P. lewyana; this species tends to be present in warm regions with low temperature variability. The distribution model predicted an increase in the geographic range of P. lewyana under climate change scenarios. However, taking into account the habitat preferences of this species and its strong association with water, this result should be treated with caution since the model considered only terrestrial climatic variables. Given the life history characteristics of this species (temperature dependent sex determination, high pivotal temperature and a very narrow transition range) and the negative effect of changes in hydrological regimes on embryo survival, expansion of the potential distribution of P. lewyana in the future does not mean that the species will not be affected by global climate change.

  11. GLOBALIZATION & REGIONALIZATION IN INTERNATIONAL TRADE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramona Frunză

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available The concept of globalization refers to the growing interdependence of countries, resulting from the increasing integration of trade, finance, investments, labor markets and ideas in one globalmarketplace. The most important elements of this process are the international trade and the cross-border investment flows. Economic globalization has increased the specialization of workers, while the companies compete in global markets. Even globalization has recently become a common topic in academic discourse, many economists focused, from the 1980s and 1990s, in addition to globalization, on regionalization - the growth of networks of interdependence within multinational regions of the world. The recent decades arecharacterized by the fact that the world trade grew faster than world output, which implies that an increasing share of world GDP crosses international borders. The trend is explained, mostly, by thesubstantially declining of the trade barriers during the same period, as a result of successive trade negotiation rounds under the auspices of the GATT/WTO, unilateral trade liberalization and regional tradeagreements. Even there are global connections between all the countries, the strongest political and economic integration is being created within a few specific regions of the world: Europe, North America and East Asia.

  12. Globfit: Consistently fitting primitives by discovering global relations

    KAUST Repository

    Li, Yangyan; Wu, Xiaokun; Chrysathou, Yiorgos; Sharf, Andrei Sharf; Cohen-Or, Daniel; Mitra, Niloy J.

    2011-01-01

    Given a noisy and incomplete point set, we introduce a method that simultaneously recovers a set of locally fitted primitives along with their global mutual relations. We operate under the assumption that the data corresponds to a man-made engineering object consisting of basic primitives, possibly repeated and globally aligned under common relations. We introduce an algorithm to directly couple the local and global aspects of the problem. The local fit of the model is determined by how well the inferred model agrees to the observed data, while the global relations are iteratively learned and enforced through a constrained optimization. Starting with a set of initial RANSAC based locally fitted primitives, relations across the primitives such as orientation, placement, and equality are progressively learned and conformed to. In each stage, a set of feasible relations are extracted among the candidate relations, and then aligned to, while best fitting to the input data. The global coupling corrects the primitives obtained in the local RANSAC stage, and brings them to precise global alignment. We test the robustness of our algorithm on a range of synthesized and scanned data, with varying amounts of noise, outliers, and non-uniform sampling, and validate the results against ground truth, where available. © 2011 ACM.

  13. Globfit: Consistently fitting primitives by discovering global relations

    KAUST Repository

    Li, Yangyan

    2011-07-01

    Given a noisy and incomplete point set, we introduce a method that simultaneously recovers a set of locally fitted primitives along with their global mutual relations. We operate under the assumption that the data corresponds to a man-made engineering object consisting of basic primitives, possibly repeated and globally aligned under common relations. We introduce an algorithm to directly couple the local and global aspects of the problem. The local fit of the model is determined by how well the inferred model agrees to the observed data, while the global relations are iteratively learned and enforced through a constrained optimization. Starting with a set of initial RANSAC based locally fitted primitives, relations across the primitives such as orientation, placement, and equality are progressively learned and conformed to. In each stage, a set of feasible relations are extracted among the candidate relations, and then aligned to, while best fitting to the input data. The global coupling corrects the primitives obtained in the local RANSAC stage, and brings them to precise global alignment. We test the robustness of our algorithm on a range of synthesized and scanned data, with varying amounts of noise, outliers, and non-uniform sampling, and validate the results against ground truth, where available. © 2011 ACM.

  14. The Climate Effects of Deforestation the Amazon Rainforest under Global Warming Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werth, D.; Avissar, R.

    2006-12-01

    Replacement of tropical rainforests has been observed to have a strong drying effect in Amazon simulations, with effects reaching high into the atmospheric column and into the midlatitudes. The drying effects of deforestation, however, can be moderated by the effects of global warming, which should accelerate the hydrologic cycle of the Amazon. The effects of a prescribed, time-varying Amazon deforestation done in conjunction with a steady, moderate increase in CO2 concentrations are determined using a climate model. The model agrees with previous studies when each forcing is applied individually - compared to a control run, Amazon deforestation decreases the local precipitation and global warming increases it. When both are applied, however, the precipitation and other hydrologic variables decrease, but to a lesser extent than when deforestation alone was applied. In effect, the two effects act opposite to one another and bring the simulated climate closer to that of the control.

  15. A coupled chemotaxis-fluid model: Global existence

    KAUST Repository

    Liu, Jian-Guo; Lorz, Alexander

    2011-01-01

    We consider a model arising from biology, consisting of chemotaxis equations coupled to viscous incompressible fluid equations through transport and external forcing. Global existence of solutions to the Cauchy problem is investigated under certain conditions. Precisely, for the chemotaxis-Navier- Stokes system in two space dimensions, we obtain global existence for large data. In three space dimensions, we prove global existence of weak solutions for the chemotaxis-Stokes system with nonlinear diffusion for the cell density.© 2011 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  16. A coupled chemotaxis-fluid model: Global existence

    KAUST Repository

    Liu, Jian-Guo

    2011-09-01

    We consider a model arising from biology, consisting of chemotaxis equations coupled to viscous incompressible fluid equations through transport and external forcing. Global existence of solutions to the Cauchy problem is investigated under certain conditions. Precisely, for the chemotaxis-Navier- Stokes system in two space dimensions, we obtain global existence for large data. In three space dimensions, we prove global existence of weak solutions for the chemotaxis-Stokes system with nonlinear diffusion for the cell density.© 2011 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  17. A global water scarcity assessment under Shared Socio-economic Pathways – Part 1: Water use

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Hanasaki

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available A novel global water scarcity assessment for the 21st century is presented in a two-part paper. In this first paper, water use scenarios are presented for the latest global hydrological models. The scenarios are compatible with the socio-economic scenarios of the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs, which are a part of the latest set of scenarios on global change developed by the integrated assessment, the IAV (climate change impact, adaptation, and vulnerability assessment, and the climate modeling community. The SSPs depict five global situations based on substantially different socio-economic conditions during the 21st century. Water use scenarios were developed to reflect not only quantitative socio-economic factors, such as population and electricity production, but also key qualitative concepts such as the degree of technological change and overall environmental consciousness. Each scenario consists of five factors: irrigated area, crop intensity, irrigation efficiency, and withdrawal-based potential industrial and municipal water demands. The first three factors are used to estimate the potential irrigation water demand. All factors were developed using simple models based on a literature review and analysis of historical records. The factors are grid-based at a spatial resolution of 0.5° × 0.5° and cover the whole 21st century in five-year intervals. Each factor shows wide variation among the different global situations depicted: the irrigated area in 2085 varies between 2.7 × 106 and 4.5 × 106 km2, withdrawal-based potential industrial water demand between 246 and 1714 km3 yr−1, and municipal water between 573 and 1280 km3 yr−1. The water use scenarios can be used for global water scarcity assessments that identify the regions vulnerable to water scarcity and analyze the timing and magnitude of scarcity conditions.

  18. Southward shift of the global wind energy resource under high carbon dioxide emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karnauskas, Kristopher B.; Lundquist, Julie K.; Zhang, Lei

    2018-01-01

    The use of wind energy resource is an integral part of many nations' strategies towards realizing the carbon emissions reduction targets set forth in the Paris Agreement, and global installed wind power cumulative capacity has grown on average by 22% per year since 2006. However, assessments of wind energy resource are usually based on today's climate, rather than taking into account that anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions continue to modify the global atmospheric circulation. Here, we apply an industry wind turbine power curve to simulations of high and low future emissions scenarios in an ensemble of ten fully coupled global climate models to investigate large-scale changes in wind power across the globe. Our calculations reveal decreases in wind power across the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes and increases across the tropics and Southern Hemisphere, with substantial regional variations. The changes across the northern mid-latitudes are robust responses over time in both emissions scenarios, whereas the Southern Hemisphere changes appear critically sensitive to each individual emissions scenario. In addition, we find that established features of climate change can explain these patterns: polar amplification is implicated in the northern mid-latitude decrease in wind power, and enhanced land-sea thermal gradients account for the tropical and southern subtropical increases.

  19. Global Health Governance and Global Power: A Critical Commentary on the Lancet-University of Oslo Commission Report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gill, Stephen; Benatar, Solomon

    2016-01-01

    The Lancet-University of Oslo Commission Report on Global Governance for Health provides an insightful analysis of the global health inequalities that result from transnational activities consequent on what the authors call contemporary "global social norms." Our critique is that the analysis and suggested reforms to prevailing institutions and practices are confined within the perspective of the dominant-although unsustainable and inequitable-market-oriented, neoliberal development model of global capitalism. Consequently, the report both elides critical discussion of many key forms of material and political power under conditions of neoliberal development and governance that shape the nature and priorities of the global governance for health, and fails to point to the extent of changes required to sustainably improve global health. We propose that an alternative concept of progress-one grounded in history, political economy, and ecologically responsible health ethics-is sorely needed to better address challenges of global health governance in the new millennium. This might be premised on global solidarity and the "development of sustainability." We argue that the prevailing market civilization model that lies at the heart of global capitalism is being, and will further need to be, contested to avoid contradictions and dislocations associated with the commodification and privatization of health. © The Author(s) 2016.

  20. Climate change under a scenario near 1.5 °C of global warming: monsoon intensification, ocean warming and steric sea level rise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Schewe

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available We present climatic consequences of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs using the coupled climate model CLIMBER-3α, which contains a statistical-dynamical atmosphere and a three-dimensional ocean model. We compare those with emulations of 19 state-of-the-art atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCM using MAGICC6. The RCPs are designed as standard scenarios for the forthcoming IPCC Fifth Assessment Report to span the full range of future greenhouse gas (GHG concentrations pathways currently discussed. The lowest of the RCP scenarios, RCP3-PD, is projected in CLIMBER-3α to imply a maximal warming by the middle of the 21st century slightly above 1.5 °C and a slow decline of temperatures thereafter, approaching today's level by 2500. We identify two mechanisms that slow down global cooling after GHG concentrations peak: The known inertia induced by mixing-related oceanic heat uptake; and a change in oceanic convection that enhances ocean heat loss in high latitudes, reducing the surface cooling rate by almost 50%. Steric sea level rise under the RCP3-PD scenario continues for 200 years after the peak in surface air temperatures, stabilizing around 2250 at 30 cm. This contrasts with around 1.3 m of steric sea level rise by 2250, and 2 m by 2500, under the highest scenario, RCP8.5. Maximum oceanic warming at intermediate depth (300–800 m is found to exceed that of the sea surface by the second half of the 21st century under RCP3-PD. This intermediate-depth warming persists for centuries even after surface temperatures have returned to present-day values, with potential consequences for marine ecosystems, oceanic methane hydrates, and ice-shelf stability. Due to an enhanced land-ocean temperature contrast, all scenarios yield an intensification of monsoon rainfall under global warming.

  1. Global risk of big earthquakes has not recently increased.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shearer, Peter M; Stark, Philip B

    2012-01-17

    The recent elevated rate of large earthquakes has fueled concern that the underlying global rate of earthquake activity has increased, which would have important implications for assessments of seismic hazard and our understanding of how faults interact. We examine the timing of large (magnitude M≥7) earthquakes from 1900 to the present, after removing local clustering related to aftershocks. The global rate of M≥8 earthquakes has been at a record high roughly since 2004, but rates have been almost as high before, and the rate of smaller earthquakes is close to its historical average. Some features of the global catalog are improbable in retrospect, but so are some features of most random sequences--if the features are selected after looking at the data. For a variety of magnitude cutoffs and three statistical tests, the global catalog, with local clusters removed, is not distinguishable from a homogeneous Poisson process. Moreover, no plausible physical mechanism predicts real changes in the underlying global rate of large events. Together these facts suggest that the global risk of large earthquakes is no higher today than it has been in the past.

  2. Globalizing land use transitions: the soybean acceleration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reenberg, Anette; Fenger, Nina Astrid

    2011-01-01

    into a leading player on the global scale. It takes point of departure in a land change science approach and employs the notions of underlying and proximate drivers and teleconnections to characterize the process of land use change in relation to the accelerating use of land for soybean cultivation.......This note presents the recent global development trends in soybean cultivation as derived from the FAO statistics. It focuses on the change over the course of the last thirty years, when significant new allocations of the global production have occurred, which have turned South America...

  3. Energy storage and fecundity explain deviations from ecological stoichiometry predictions under global warming and size-selective predation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Chao; Jansen, Mieke; De Meester, Luc; Stoks, Robby

    2016-11-01

    A key challenge for ecologists is to predict how single and joint effects of global warming and predation risk translate from the individual level up to ecosystem functions. Recently, stoichiometric theory linked these levels through changes in body stoichiometry, predicting that both higher temperatures and predation risk induce shifts in energy storage (increases in C-rich carbohydrates and reductions in N-rich proteins) and body stoichiometry (increases in C : N and C : P). This promising theory, however, is rarely tested and assumes that prey will divert energy away from reproduction under predation risk, while under size-selective predation, prey instead increase fecundity. We exposed the water flea Daphnia magna to 4 °C warming and fish predation risk to test whether C-rich carbohydrates increase and N-rich proteins decrease, and as a result, C : N and C : P increase under warming and predation risk. Unexpectedly, warming decreased body C : N, which was driven by reductions in C-rich fat and sugar contents while the protein content did not change. This reflected a trade-off where the accelerated intrinsic growth rate under warming occurred at the cost of a reduced energy storage. Warming reduced C : N less and only increased C : P and N : P in the fish-period Daphnia. These evolved stoichiometric responses to warming were largely driven by stronger warming-induced reductions in P than in C and N and could be explained by the better ability to deal with warming in the fish-period Daphnia. In contrast to theory predictions, body C : N decreased under predation risk due to a strong increase in the N-rich protein content that offsets the increase in C-rich fat content. The higher investment in fecundity (more N-rich eggs) under predation risk contributed to this stronger increase in protein content. Similarly, the lower body C : N of pre-fish Daphnia also matched their higher fecundity. Warming and predation risk independently shaped body

  4. The Role of Atmospheric Heating over the South China Sea and Western Pacific Regions in Modulating Asian Summer Climate under the Global Warming Background

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, B.

    2015-12-01

    Global warming is one of the most significant climate change signals at the earth's surface. However, the responses of monsoon precipitation to global warming show very distinct regional features, especially over the South China Sea (SCS) and surrounding regions during boreal summer. To understand the possible dynamics in these specific regions under the global warming background, the changes in atmospheric latent heating and their possible influences on global climate are investigated by both observational diagnosis and numerical sensitivity simulations. Results indicate that summertime latent heating has intensified in the SCS and western Pacific, accompanied by increased precipitation, cloud cover, lower-tropospheric convergence, and decreased sea level pressure. Sensitivity experiments show that middle and upper tropospheric heating causes an east-west feedback pattern between SCS-western Pacific and South Asia, which strengthens the South Asian High in the upper troposphere and moist convergence in the lower troposphere, consequently forcing a descending motion and adiabatic warming over continental South Asia and leading to a warm and dry climate. When air-sea interaction is considered, the simulation results are overall more similar to observations, and in particular the bias of precipitation over the Indian Ocean simulated by AGCMs has been reduced. The results highlight the important role of latent heating in adjusting the changes in sea surface temperature through atmospheric dynamics.

  5. Trait Acclimation Mitigates Mortality Risks of Tropical Canopy Trees under Global Warming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sterck, Frank; Anten, Niels P.R.; Schieving, Feike; Zuidema, Pieter A.

    2016-01-01

    There is a heated debate about the effect of global change on tropical forests. Many scientists predict large-scale tree mortality while others point to mitigating roles of CO2 fertilization and – the notoriously unknown – physiological trait acclimation of trees. In this opinion article we provided

  6. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R.

    1994-05-01

    This report was prepared by the Applied Research Corporation (ARC), College Station, Texas, under subcontract to Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate studies task. The task supports site characterization work required for the selection of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository and is part of the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL. The work is under the overall direction of the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM), US Department of Energy Headquarters, Washington, DC. The scope of the report is to present the results of the third year's work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain several studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals

  7. ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL IMPLICATIONS OF GLOBALIZATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oana CHINDRIS-VASIOIU

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The confrontation between third millennium will not be between civilizations but between forces of globalization and global agents. Already live in a global economy, context in which it is necessary to understand by globalization the modernization process of life world by spreading economic means of production and communication at world level. Globalization produces a capitalism healthy whereas stimulates competition beneficial between an ever-increasing number of companies. Economic and political unification under the global financial corporate banner is accompanied by mixing spiritual values and return unique realm. After internationalism political correctness (multiculturalism, feminism, ecological radically administered Western individualism typical bruising, it seems that the ground is ready for the big toe-in. Globalization can be seen as a crucial stage of expansion and economic interdependence. This stage is completing a process of aggregation of relatively autonomous local economies whose element mainly in the past has been constant widening of the space for the exchange of each economic savings. Economic renewal based on knowledge of known but a contrary geospatial evolution. Advances in knowledge are favored and intimately linked to the possibility of communication. So, they are favored by communication infrastructure and communication technologies.

  8. Global climate feedbacks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Manowitz, B.

    1990-10-01

    The important physical, chemical, and biological events that affect global climate change occur on a mesoscale -- requiring high spatial resolution for their analysis. The Department of Energy has formulated two major initiatives under the US Global Change Program: ARM (Atmospheric Radiation Measurements), and CHAMMP (Computer Hardware Advanced Mathematics and Model Physics). ARM is designed to use ground and air-craft based observations to document profiles of atmospheric composition, clouds, and radiative fluxes. With research and models of important physical processes, ARM will delineate the relationships between trace gases, aerosol and cloud structure, and radiative transfer in the atmosphere, and will improve the parameterization of global circulation models. The present GCMs do not model important feedbacks, including those from clouds, oceans, and land processes. The purpose of this workshop is to identify such potential feedbacks, to evaluate the uncertainties in the feedback processes (and, if possible, to parameterize the feedback processes so that they can be treated in a GCM), and to recommend research programs that will reduce the uncertainties in important feedback processes. Individual reports are processed separately for the data bases.

  9. Climate change alters low flows in Europe under global warming of 1.5, 2, and 3 °C

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marx, Andreas; Kumar, Rohini; Thober, Stephan; Rakovec, Oldrich; Wanders, Niko; Zink, Matthias; Wood, Eric F.; Pan, Ming; Sheffield, Justin; Samaniego, Luis

    2018-02-01

    There is growing evidence that climate change will alter water availability in Europe. Here, we investigate how hydrological low flows are affected under different levels of future global warming (i.e. 1.5, 2, and 3 K with respect to the pre-industrial period) in rivers with a contributing area of more than 1000 km2. The analysis is based on a multi-model ensemble of 45 hydrological simulations based on three representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP6.0, RCP8.5), five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCMs: GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, NorESM1-M) and three state-of-the-art hydrological models (HMs: mHM, Noah-MP, and PCR-GLOBWB). High-resolution model results are available at a spatial resolution of 5 km across the pan-European domain at a daily temporal resolution. Low river flow is described as the percentile of daily streamflow that is exceeded 90 % of the time. It is determined separately for each GCM/HM combination and warming scenario. The results show that the low-flow change signal amplifies with increasing warming levels. Low flows decrease in the Mediterranean region, while they increase in the Alpine and Northern regions. In the Mediterranean, the level of warming amplifies the signal from -12 % under 1.5 K, compared to the baseline period 1971-2000, to -35 % under global warming of 3 K, largely due to the projected decreases in annual precipitation. In contrast, the signal is amplified from +22 (1.5 K) to +45 % (3 K) in the Alpine region due to changes in snow accumulation. The changes in low flows are significant for regions with relatively large change signals and under higher levels of warming. However, it is not possible to distinguish climate-induced differences in low flows between 1.5 and 2 K warming because of (1) the large inter-annual variability which prevents distinguishing statistical estimates of period-averaged changes for a given GCM/HM combination, and (2

  10. IT Investment Guidelines in Taiwan's IT Industry under a Global Economic Downturn

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cha, Un Un

    2011-01-01

    The current qualitative phenomenological study focused on how information technology (IT) leaders managed IT investment during the global economic downturn in the Taiwan IT industry. Organizations around the world spend billions of dollars on IT-related products and services every year. Determining an effective IT investment plan is a complex task…

  11. Global experience curves for wind farms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Junginger, M.; Faaij, A.; Turkenburg, W.C.

    2005-01-01

    In order to forecast the technological development and cost of wind turbines and the production costs of wind electricity, frequent use is made of the so-called experience curve concept. Experience curves of wind turbines are generally based on data describing the development of national markets, which cause a number of problems when applied for global assessments. To analyze global wind energy price development more adequately, we compose a global experience curve. First, underlying factors for past and potential future price reductions of wind turbines are analyzed. Also possible implications and pitfalls when applying the experience curve methodology are assessed. Second, we present and discuss a new approach of establishing a global experience curve and thus a global progress ratio for the investment cost of wind farms. Results show that global progress ratios for wind farms may lie between 77% and 85% (with an average of 81%), which is significantly more optimistic than progress ratios applied in most current scenario studies and integrated assessment models. While the findings are based on a limited amount of data, they may indicate faster price reduction opportunities than so far assumed. With this global experience curve we aim to improve the reliability of describing the speed with which global costs of wind power may decline

  12. The carbon footprint of global tourism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenzen, Manfred; Sun, Ya-Yen; Faturay, Futu; Ting, Yuan-Peng; Geschke, Arne; Malik, Arunima

    2018-06-01

    Tourism contributes significantly to global gross domestic product, and is forecast to grow at an annual 4%, thus outpacing many other economic sectors. However, global carbon emissions related to tourism are currently not well quantified. Here, we quantify tourism-related global carbon flows between 160 countries, and their carbon footprints under origin and destination accounting perspectives. We find that, between 2009 and 2013, tourism's global carbon footprint has increased from 3.9 to 4.5 GtCO2e, four times more than previously estimated, accounting for about 8% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Transport, shopping and food are significant contributors. The majority of this footprint is exerted by and in high-income countries. The rapid increase in tourism demand is effectively outstripping the decarbonization of tourism-related technology. We project that, due to its high carbon intensity and continuing growth, tourism will constitute a growing part of the world's greenhouse gas emissions.

  13. Global Carbon-and-Conservation Models, Global Eco-States? Ecuador’s Yasuní-ITT Initiative and Governance Implications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Conny Davidsen

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The “global carbon age” marks a structural change far beyond the economic realms of implementing carbon trade, affecting the fabric of global environmental governance and its actors. Carbon trade and conservation in the Global South have taken on various forms, and climate change mitigation efforts in light of continued rainforest deforestation are scrambling to establish effective approaches. Ecuador’s Yasuní-ITT Initiative proposes a new global carbon-and-conservation model in the Ecuadorian Amazon that leaves oil reserves of the Yasuní Ishpingo Tambococha Tiputini (ITT oil fields underground, in exchange for international compensation payments that would be based on voluntary contributions of governments and nongovernmental actors in an international conservation partnership and trust fund under the auspices of the United Nations Development Programme. This model suggests far-reaching consequences, as it introduces new global scales for the sharing and management of environmental costs within a framework of neoliberal cost internalization. The analysis in this paper uses the concept of the “ecological state” (Duit, 2008 as a theoretical point of departure to examine the trans-scalar implications of such a carbon-and-conservation model on global governance structures toward a “global ecological state” (or global eco-state.

  14. Global carbon inequality

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hubacek, Klaus [University of Maryland, Department of Geographical Sciences, College Park, MD (United States); Masaryk University, Department of Environmental Studies, Brno (Czech Republic); Baiocchi, Giovanni [University of Maryland, Department of Geographical Sciences, College Park, MD (United States); University of Maryland, Department of Economics, College Park, MD (United States); Feng, Kuishuang [University of Maryland, Department of Geographical Sciences, College Park, MD (United States); Munoz Castillo, Raul [University of Maryland, Department of Geographical Sciences, College Park, MD (United States); Interamerican Development Bank, Washington, DC (United States); Sun, Laixiang [University of Maryland, Department of Geographical Sciences, College Park, MD (United States); SOAS, University of London, London (United Kingdom); International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria); Xue, Jinjun [Nagoya University, Graduate School of Economics, Nagoya (Japan); Hubei University of Economics, Wuhan (China)

    2017-12-01

    Global climate change and inequality are inescapably linked both in terms of who contributes climate change and who suffers the consequences. This fact is also partly reflected in two United Nations (UN) processes: on the one hand, the Paris Agreement of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change under which countries agreed to hold the increase in the global average temperature to below 2 C above pre-industrial levels and, on the other hand, the UN's Sustainable Development Goals aiming to end poverty. These agreements are seen as important foundation to put the world nations on a sustainable pathway. However, how these agreements can be achieved or whether they are even mutually compatible is less clear. We explore the global carbon inequality between and within countries and the carbon implications of poverty alleviation by combining detailed consumer expenditure surveys for different income categories for a wide range of countries with an environmentally extended multi-regional input-output approach to estimate carbon footprints of different household groups, globally, and assess the carbon implications of moving the poorest people out of poverty. Given the current context, increasing income leads to increasing carbon footprints and makes global targets for mitigating greenhouse gases more difficult to achieve given the pace of technological progress and current levels of fossil fuel dependence. We conclude that the huge level of carbon inequality requires a critical discussion of undifferentiated income growth. Current carbon-intensive lifestyles and consumption patterns need to enter the climate discourse to a larger extent. (orig.)

  15. Global carbon inequality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubacek, Klaus; Baiocchi, Giovanni; Feng, Kuishuang; Munoz Castillo, Raul; Sun, Laixiang; Xue, Jinjun

    2017-01-01

    Global climate change and inequality are inescapably linked both in terms of who contributes climate change and who suffers the consequences. This fact is also partly reflected in two United Nations (UN) processes: on the one hand, the Paris Agreement of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change under which countries agreed to hold the increase in the global average temperature to below 2 C above pre-industrial levels and, on the other hand, the UN's Sustainable Development Goals aiming to end poverty. These agreements are seen as important foundation to put the world nations on a sustainable pathway. However, how these agreements can be achieved or whether they are even mutually compatible is less clear. We explore the global carbon inequality between and within countries and the carbon implications of poverty alleviation by combining detailed consumer expenditure surveys for different income categories for a wide range of countries with an environmentally extended multi-regional input-output approach to estimate carbon footprints of different household groups, globally, and assess the carbon implications of moving the poorest people out of poverty. Given the current context, increasing income leads to increasing carbon footprints and makes global targets for mitigating greenhouse gases more difficult to achieve given the pace of technological progress and current levels of fossil fuel dependence. We conclude that the huge level of carbon inequality requires a critical discussion of undifferentiated income growth. Current carbon-intensive lifestyles and consumption patterns need to enter the climate discourse to a larger extent. (orig.)

  16. Demographic controls of future global fire risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knorr, W.; Arneth, A.; Jiang, L.

    2016-08-01

    Wildfires are an important component of terrestrial ecosystem ecology but also a major natural hazard to societies, and their frequency and spatial distribution must be better understood. At a given location, risk from wildfire is associated with the annual fraction of burned area, which is expected to increase in response to climate warming. Until recently, however, only a few global studies of future fire have considered the effects of other important global environmental change factors such as atmospheric CO2 levels and human activities, and how these influence fires in different regions. Here, we contrast the impact of climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 content on burned area with that of demographic dynamics, using ensembles of climate simulations combined with historical and projected population changes under different socio-economic development pathways for 1901-2100. Historically, humans notably suppressed wildfires. For future scenarios, global burned area will continue to decline under a moderate emissions scenario, except for low population growth and fast urbanization, but start to increase again from around mid-century under high greenhouse gas emissions. Contrary to common perception, we find that human exposure to wildfires increases in the future mainly owing to projected population growth in areas with frequent wildfires, rather than by a general increase in burned area.

  17. From City-States to Global Cities: the role of Cities in Global Governance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Domingos Martins Vaz

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Global governance has altered institutional architecture and the systemic and institutional conditions under which power is exercised, as well as the characteristics of the political system, the form of government, and the system of intermediation of interests. However, although it has surpassed the State’s dimension of power, it created new interstate dimensions and new relations between powers, particularly at the level of cities. Cities have helped to solve common problems in a more efficient and effective way by facilitating the exchange of knowledge, sharing of solutions and resources, and building capacity to implement and monitor progress in order to achieve collectively agreed goals, in a bottom-up approach. Cities have the virtue of securing the most direct social and political contract between societies and the notion of authority. This study, therefore, aims to reflect on this emerging, less hierarchical and rigid governance and address complex global challenges such as climate and demographic change; increasing crime rates; disruptive technology; and pressures on resources, infrastructure and energy. As a global/local interface, cities can ensure effective solutions to current challenges and act together in areas where the global agenda has stalled.

  18. Where theory and practice of global health intersect: the developmental history of a Canadian global health initiative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daibes, Ibrahim; Sridharan, Sanjeev

    2014-01-01

    This paper examines the scope of practice of global health, drawing on the practical experience of a global health initiative of the Government of Canada--the Teasdale-Corti Global Health Research Partnership Program. A number of challenges in the practical application of theoretical definitions and understandings of global health are addressed. These challenges are grouped under five areas that form essential characteristics of global health: equity and egalitarian North-South partnerships, interdisciplinary scope, focus on upstream determinants of health, global conceptualization, and global health as an area of both research and practice. Information in this paper is based on the results of an external evaluation of the program, which involved analysis of project proposals and technical reports, surveys with grantees and interviews with grantees and program designers, as well as case studies of three projects and a review of relevant literature. The philosophy and recent definitions of global health represent a significant and important departure from the international health paradigm. However, the practical applicability of this maturing area of research and practice still faces significant systemic and structural impediments that, if not acknowledged and addressed, will continue to undermine the development of global health as an effective means to addressing health inequities globally and to better understanding, and acting upon, upstream determinants of health toward health for all. While it strives to redress global inequities, global health continues to be a construct that is promoted, studied, and dictated mostly by Northern institutions and scholars. Until practical mechanisms are put in place for truly egalitarian partnerships between North and South for both the study and practice of global health, the emerging philosophy of global health cannot be effectively put into practice.

  19. Nutrition security under extreme events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez, A.

    2017-12-01

    Nutrition security under extreme events. Zero hunger being one of the Sustainable Development Goal from the United Nations, food security has become a trending research topic. However extreme events impact on global food security is not yet 100% understood and there is a lack of comprehension of the underlying mechanisms of global food trade and nutrition security to improve countries resilience to extreme events. In a globalized world, food is still a highly regulated commodity and a strategic resource. A drought happening in a net food-exporter will have little to no effect on its own population but the repercussion on net food-importers can be extreme. In this project, we propose a methodology to describe and quantify the impact of a local drought to human health at a global scale. For this purpose, nutrition supply and global trade data from FAOSTAT have been used with domestic food production from national agencies and FAOSTAT, global precipitation from the Climate Research Unit and health data from the World Health Organization. A modified Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) has been developed to measure the level of resilience of one country to a drought happening in another country. This index describes how a country is dependent of importation and how diverse are its importation. Losses of production and exportation due to extreme events have been calculated using yield data and a simple food balance at country scale. Results show that countries the most affected by global droughts are the one with the highest dependency to one exporting country. Changes induced by droughts also disturbed their domestic proteins, fat and calories supply resulting most of the time in a higher intake of calories or fat over proteins.

  20. Habitats at Risk. Global Warming and Species Loss in Globally Significant Terrestrial Ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malcolm, J.R.; Liu, Canran; Miller, L.B.; Allnutt, T.; Hansen, L.

    2002-02-01

    In this study, a suite of models of global climate and vegetation change is used to investigate three important global warming-induced threats to the terrestrial Global 200 ecoregions: (1) Invasions by new habitat types (and corresponding loss of original habitat types); (2) Local changes of habitat types; (3) High rates of required species migration. Seven climate models (general circulation models or GCMs) and two vegetation models (BIOME3 and MAPSS) were used to produce 14 impact scenarios under the climate associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations, which is expected to occur in less than 100 years. Previous analyses indicated that most of the variation among the impact scenarios was attributable to the particular vegetation model used, hence the authors provide results separately for the two models. The models do not provide information on biodiversity per se, but instead simulate current and future potential distributions of major vegetation types (biomes) such as tundra and broadleaf tropical rain forest

  1. Global optimization methods for engineering design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arora, Jasbir S.

    1990-01-01

    The problem is to find a global minimum for the Problem P. Necessary and sufficient conditions are available for local optimality. However, global solution can be assured only under the assumption of convexity of the problem. If the constraint set S is compact and the cost function is continuous on it, existence of a global minimum is guaranteed. However, in view of the fact that no global optimality conditions are available, a global solution can be found only by an exhaustive search to satisfy Inequality. The exhaustive search can be organized in such a way that the entire design space need not be searched for the solution. This way the computational burden is reduced somewhat. It is concluded that zooming algorithm for global optimizations appears to be a good alternative to stochastic methods. More testing is needed; a general, robust, and efficient local minimizer is required. IDESIGN was used in all numerical calculations which is based on a sequential quadratic programming algorithm, and since feasible set keeps on shrinking, a good algorithm to find an initial feasible point is required. Such algorithms need to be developed and evaluated.

  2. Global hydrological droughts in the 21st century under a changing hydrological regime

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wanders, Niko|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/364253940; Wada, Yoshi|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/341387819; van Lanen, H.A.J

    2015-01-01

    Climate change very likely impacts future hydrological drought characteristics across the world. Here, we quantify the impact of climate change on future low flows and associated hydrological drought characteristics on a global scale using an alternative drought identification approach that

  3. Features of the Institutional Structure of the Polish Stock Market under Conditions of Transformational Changes in the Global Financial Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goncharenko Nataliia I.

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Under modern conditions of transformational changes in the global financial environment, the international stock market acquires stable features of activization of investment activity, formation of a large network of professional participants in the stock market and its multi-level institutional structure, expansion of the range of trade in securities, access of economic entities of different countries to financial resources and diversification of mechanisms of concentration, etc. There conducted a study of peculiarities of the institutional structure of the Polish stock market in the context of transformational changes in the global economic system. The factors influencing the volume of capitalization of the Warsaw Stock Exchange are analyzed; the dependence of the capitalization of the Exchange on foreign portfolio investments in shares of Polish issuers is revealed. Based on the results of own calculations of multiple correlation coefficients, the level of dependence between capital stock market indicators and assets of such financial institutions in Poland as investment and open pension funds, insurance companies is determined, and a significant interconnection of assets of investment and open pension funds and insurance companies is revealed. The obtained results can become a basis for institutional investors in the process of making effective decisions on expanding the range of trading in securities.

  4. China's energy consumption under the global economic crisis: Decomposition and sectoral analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Fangyi; Song, Zhouying; Liu, Weidong

    2014-01-01

    It is now widely recognized that there is a strong relationship between energy consumption and economic growth. Most countries′ energy demands declined during the economic depression of 2008–2009 when a worldwide economic crisis occurred. As an export-oriented economy, China suffered a serious exports decline in the course of the crisis. However, it was found that energy consumption continued to increase. Against such a background, this paper aims to assess and explain the factors causing the growth of energy consumption in China. First, we will explain the impact of domestic final use and international trade on energy consumption by using decomposition analysis. Second, embodied energy and its variation across sectors are quantified to identify the key sectors contributing to the growth. Lastly, the policy implications for long-term energy conservation are discussed. The results show that the decline in exports was one of the driving forces for energy consumption reduction in the crisis, but that the growth of domestic demand in manufacturing and construction, largely stimulated by economic stimulus plans, had the opposite effect on energy consumption. International trade contributed to decreasing energy consumption of China during and after the crisis because the structure of exports and imports changed in this period. - Highlights: • We analyze the reasons for China's energy consumption change under the global economic crisis during 2007–2010. • Domestic final use growth, especially in construction and manufacturing of machinery and equipment, resulted in energy consumption increase. • International trade is identified as a driver of energy consumption reduction during and after the crisis. • Increasing China's share of consumption or reducing its share of investment in the GDP can reduce national energy intensity

  5. Institutional Competitiveness in the Global Economy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Campbell, John L.; Pedersen, Ove K.

    that are very different institutionally. The analysis shows that there is no one best way to achieve success in today's global economy, except perhaps for reducing socioeconomic inequality; that the type of capitalism known as coordinated market economies are oversimplified in the literature; and that high...... national competitiveness under conditions of economic globalization. Following the varieties of capitalism literature, this paper argues that Denmark's success has been based in large part on its institutional competitiveness-its capacity to achieve socioeconomic success as a result of the competitive...

  6. Exploring the biogeophysical limits of global food production under different climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Vrese, Philipp; Stacke, Tobias; Hagemann, Stefan

    2018-04-01

    An adapted Earth system model is used to investigate the limitations that future climate and water availability impose on the potential expansion and productivity of croplands. The model maximizes the cropland area under prevailing climate conditions and accounts for an optimized, sustainable irrigation practice, thus allowing us to consider the two-way feedback between climate and agriculture. For three greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5), we show that the total cropland area could be extended substantially throughout the 21st century, especially in South America and sub-Saharan Africa, where the rising water demand resulting from increasing temperatures can largely be met by increasing precipitation and irrigation rates. When accounting for the CO2 fertilization effect, only a few agricultural areas have to be abandoned owing to declines in productivity, while increasing temperatures allow for the expansion of croplands even into high northern latitudes. Without the CO2 fertilization effect there is no increase in the overall cropland fraction during the second half of the century but areal losses in increasingly water-stressed regions can be compensated for by an expansion in regions that were previously too cold. However, global yields are more sensitive and, without the benefits of CO2 fertilization, they may decrease when greenhouse gas concentrations exceed the RCP4.5 scenario. For certain regions the situation is even more concerning and guaranteeing food security in dry areas in Northern Africa, the Middle East and South Asia will become increasingly difficult, even for the idealized scenarios investigated in this study.

  7. Engineering Global Soils to Sustain Planet Earth

    OpenAIRE

    Banwart, Steven A.; Menon, Manoj

    2014-01-01

    Global soils are under intense pressure from the demographic drivers of increasing human population and\\ud wealth. During the next 40 years Earth’s human population is project to approach 10 billion with a quadrupling\\ud in the global economy, a doubling in the demand for food, a doubling in the demand for fuel, and a more than\\ud 50% increase in the demand for clean water. Can Earth’s soils keep up?

  8. Global Convergence of a Modified LS Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liu JinKui

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The LS method is one of the effective conjugate gradient methods in solving the unconstrained optimization problems. The paper presents a modified LS method on the basis of the famous LS method and proves the strong global convergence for the uniformly convex functions and the global convergence for general functions under the strong Wolfe line search. The numerical experiments show that the modified LS method is very effective in practice.

  9. Globalization in the post - colonial world

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Korobeynikova Larisa A.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a new interpretation of globalization within the boundaries of the author’s concept of soft globalization, which exploits a normatively attractive alternative to the concept of the Empire. It is argued here that the conditions of development of contemporary post - colonial world communities do not require any unification in the form of the Empire, but instead the creation of a non repressive mechanism of social regulation - the implementation of a form of soft globalization, a globalization with a mental form are expedient here. Historically, globalization occurred in a strict material(i.e. economical and military form that prompted the conditions for the evolution of civilization as the Empire: a case in which the development of the world occurs under the power of a single dominating state. Imperialistic politics leads to colonial politics formation. The history of the phenomena of civilization shows many instances of Empire globalization. Globalization in the Empire form was already observed at the time of the Roman Empire. At this time processes of development inside the Empire were manifestations of globalization in its highest cultural shape. But ancient Rome was also a social and political experiment that acquired the attributes of a purely material globalization in the end, and historically brought about the irreversible crash of the Roman Empire itself. Contemporary fluctuations referring to the process of globalization can be registered in the US’s attempts of material domination inside this or that existing case of civilization, which causes colonialism appearance. The main idea stressed in the paper is that only a mental globalization could succeed in the end.

  10. Global limit load solutions for thick-walled cylinders with circumferential cracks under combined internal pressure, axial force and bending moment − Part II: Finite element validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Yuebing; Lei, Yuebao; Gao, Zengliang

    2014-01-01

    Global limit load solutions for thick-walled cylinders with circumferential internal/external surface and through-wall defects under combined positive/negative axial force, positive/negative global bending moment and internal pressure have been developed in Part I of this paper. In this Part II, elastic-perfectly plastic 3-D finite element (FE) analyses are performed for selected cases, covering a wide range of geometries and load combinations, to validate the developed limit load solutions. The results show that these limit load solutions can predict the FE data very well for the cases with shallow or deep and short cracks and are conservative. For the cases with very long and deep cracks, the predictions are reasonably accurate and more conservative. -- Highlights: • Elastic-perfectly plastic 3D finite element limiting analyses of cylinders. • Thin/thick-walled cylinders with circumferential surface defects. • Combined loading for pressure, end-force and global bending moment. • Totally 1458 cases analysed and tabulated normalised results provided. • Results used to validate the developed limit load solutions in Part I of this paper

  11. Global Roads Open Access Data Set, Version 1 (gROADSv1)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Global Roads Open Access Data Set, Version 1 (gROADSv1) was developed under the auspices of the CODATA Global Roads Data Development Task Group. The data set...

  12. Globalization and its Impact on Bangladesh Economy

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Rahman, Faizur

    2005-01-01

    ...), and the World Trade Organization (WTO) in setting the rules under which globalization is played, has placed developing countries in a much disadvantageous position vis-a-vis the developed countries...

  13. Reduced connection between the East Asian Summer Monsoon and Southern Hemisphere Circulation on interannual timescales under intense global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Tianlei; Guo, Pinwen; Cheng, Jun; Hu, Aixue; Lin, Pengfei; Yu, Yongqiang

    2018-03-01

    Previous studies show a close relationship between the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) circulation on interannual timescales. In this study, we investigate whether this close relationship will change under intensive greenhouse-gas effect by analyzing simulations under two different climate background states: preindustrial era and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 stabilization from the Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4). Results show a significantly reduced relationship under stabilized RCP8.5 climate state, such a less correlated EASM with the sea level pressure in the southern Indian Ocean and the SH branch of local Hadley Cell. Further analysis suggests that the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) due to this warming leads to a less vigorous northward meridional heat transport, a decreased intertropical temperature contrast in boreal summer, which produces a weaker cross-equatorial Hadley Cell in the monsoonal region and a reduced Interhemispheric Mass Exchange (IME). Since the monsoonal IME acts as a bridge connecting EASM and SH circulation, the reduced IME weakens this connection. By performing freshwater hosing experiment using the Flexible Global Ocean—Atmosphere—Land System model, Grid-point Version 2 (FGOALS-g2), we show a weakened relationship between the EASM and SH circulation as in CCSM4 when AMOC collapses. Our results suggest that a substantially weakened AMOC is the main driver leading to the EASM, which is less affected by SH circulation in the future warmer climate.

  14. Using Scientific Enquiry to Make Sense of Global Challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogg, Max

    2010-01-01

    In a context where the science underlying global issues such as climate change often loses out to political opinions and distortions, science teachers have a unique and very important role. Science teachers can use global-learning approaches to encourage learners to develop skills in scientific enquiry and critical analysis of scientific issues.…

  15. Responses of Seasonal Precipitation Intensity to Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lan, Chia-Wei; Lo, Min-Hui; Chou, Chia

    2016-04-01

    Under global warming, the water vapor increases with rising temperature at the rate of 7%/K. Most previous studies focus on the spatial differences of precipitation and suggest that wet regions become wetter and dry regions become drier. Our recent studies show a temporal disparity of global precipitation, which the wet season becomes wetter and dry season becomes drier; therefore, the annual range increases. However, such changes in the annual range are not homogeneous globally, and in fact, the drier trend over the ocean is much larger than that over the land, where the dry season does not become drier. Such precipitation change over land is likely because of decreased omega at 500hPa (more upward motion) in the reanalysis datasets from 1980 to 2013. The trends of vertical velocity and moist static energy profile over the increased precipitation regions become more unstable. The instability is most likely attributed to the change in specific humility below 400hPa. Further, we will use Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) archives to investigate whether the precipitation responses in dry season are different between the ocean and land under global warming.

  16. Evolutionary History Underlies Plant Physiological Responses to Global Change Since the Last Glacial Maximum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becklin, K. M.; Medeiros, J. S.; Sale, K. R.; Ward, J. K.

    2014-12-01

    Assessing family and species-level variation in physiological responses to global change across geologic time is critical for understanding factors that underlie changes in species distributions and community composition. Ancient plant specimens preserved within packrat middens are invaluable in this context since they allow for comparisons between co-occurring plant lineages. Here we used modern and ancient plant specimens preserved within packrat middens from the Snake Range, NV to investigate the physiological responses of a mixed montane conifer community to global change since the last glacial maximum. We used a conceptual model to infer relative changes in stomatal conductance and maximum photosynthetic capacity from measures of leaf carbon isotopes, stomatal characteristics, and leaf nitrogen content. Our results indicate that most of the sampled taxa decreased stomatal conductance and/or photosynthetic capacity from glacial to modern times. However, plant families differed in the timing and magnitude of these physiological responses. Additionally, leaf-level responses were more similar within plant families than within co-occurring species assemblages. This suggests that adaptation at the level of leaf physiology may not be the main determinant of shifts in community composition, and that plant evolutionary history may drive physiological adaptation to global change over recent geologic time.

  17. Global economic processes and Ukraine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Svitlana Radzievska

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents main trends in global economic development and impact thereof on Ukraine. A characteristic feature of the contemporary world is acceleration of globalization caused by achievements of the scientific and technological progress, which have provided technical means for successful overcoming the factors of time and space, whereby making the world more compact and ensuring the possibility of functioning as a single economic mechanism. Growing of opportunities for solving global problems is accompanied by aggravation of the latter such as: population growth, depletion of natural resources, deterioration of the environment, the mounting danger of climatic changes, potential failure to provide people with foods and potable water. Growth of social inequality in the world is also observed, as is increased differentiation of population by income level, which intensifies migration processes and thereby creates new problems related to coexistence of people belonging to different civilizations, cultures and value systems. An integral part of globalization is formation of regional associations which requires Ukraine to participate in this phase of globalization by means of becoming a member of a regional integration association with the purpose of improving its competitiveness and ensuring decent living for Ukrainian people under conditions of humanity functioning as a single planetary organism

  18. Global Proteome Analysis of Leptospira interrogans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comparative global proteome analyses were performed on Leptospira interrogans serovar Copenhageni grown under conventional in vitro conditions and those mimicking in vivo conditions (iron limitation and serum presence). Proteomic analyses were conducted using iTRAQ and LC-ESI-tandem mass spectrometr...

  19. Management in achieving competitive advantage in Nigerian public organisations under the global economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chijioke Hope Ukanwah

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores the strategic role of human resources management in achieving competitive advantage in a global economy. Human resource management remains indispensable in engendering competitive advantage for businesses in this era of tense global competition. Productivity and competitiveness of organisations is now dependent on their employees’ ability to generate, process, and apply knowledge. Scholars and practitioners of human resources management agree that a workforce that is properly trained and managed is a source of competitive advantage. The article recognised the fact that public organisations have not really given importance to human resource management and this is responsible for their underwhelming performance. The paper recommends some HR strategies that managers can adopt to improve the quality and value of their workforce, and these range from effective talent management, continuous workplace learning, safe and healthy work environment, ICT adoption, competitive benefit system, HR planning to proper deployment of skills and expertise.

  20. Toward an Improved Understanding of the Global Fresh Water Budget

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hildebrand, Peter H.

    2005-01-01

    The major components of the global fresh water cycle include the evaporation from the land and ocean surfaces, precipitation onto the Ocean and land surfaces, the net atmospheric transport of water from oceanic areas over land, and the return flow of water from the land back into the ocean. The additional components of oceanic water transport are few, principally, the mixing of fresh water through the oceanic boundary layer, transport by ocean currents, and sea ice processes. On land the situation is considerably more complex, and includes the deposition of rain and snow on land; water flow in runoff; infiltration of water into the soil and groundwater; storage of water in soil, lakes and streams, and groundwater; polar and glacial ice; and use of water in vegetation and human activities. Knowledge of the key terms in the fresh water flux budget is poor. Some components of the budget, e.g. precipitation, runoff, storage, are measured with variable accuracy across the globe. We are just now obtaining precise measurements of the major components of global fresh water storage in global ice and ground water. The easily accessible fresh water sources in rivers, lakes and snow runoff are only adequately measured in the more affluent portions of the world. presents proposals are suggesting methods of making global measurements of these quantities from space. At the same time, knowledge of the global fresh water resources under the effects of climate change is of increasing importance and the human population grows. This paper provides an overview of the state of knowledge of the global fresh water budget, evaluating the accuracy of various global water budget measuring and modeling techniques. We review the measurement capabilities of satellite instruments as compared with field validation studies and modeling approaches. Based on these analyses, and on the goal of improved knowledge of the global fresh water budget under the effects of climate change, we suggest

  1. IMPACT OF GLOBALIZATION ON RETAILING IN CROATIA

    OpenAIRE

    Sandra Mrvica MAĐARAC; Višnja BARTOLOVIĆ; Matej GALIĆ

    2017-01-01

    Trade is one of the leading sectors of the Croatian economy, which has undergone significant changes under the influence of globalization over the last decade. According to Central Bureau of Statistics in Croatia about 16 % of all employees work in trade business, and more than a quarter of business entities are registered in this sector. Therefore the trade has a significant share in Croatian GDP creation. Globalization is considered an important factor of economic development around the wor...

  2. Global health governance as shared health governance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruger, Jennifer Prah

    2012-07-01

    With the exception of key 'proven successes' in global health, the current regime of global health governance can be understood as transnational and national actors pursuing their own interests under a rational actor model of international cooperation, which fails to provide sufficient justification for an obligation to assist in meeting the health needs of others. An ethical commitment to providing all with the ability to be healthy is required. This article develops select components of an alternative model of shared health governance (SHG), which aims to provide a 'road map,' 'focal points' and 'the glue' among various global health actors to better effectuate cooperation on universal ethical principles for an alternative global health equilibrium. Key features of SHG include public moral norms as shared authoritative standards; ethical commitments, shared goals and role allocation; shared sovereignty and constitutional commitments; legitimacy and accountability; country-level attention to international health relations. A framework of social agreement based on 'overlapping consensus' is contrasted against one based on self-interested political bargaining. A global health constitution delineating duties and obligations of global health actors and a global institute of health and medicine for holding actors responsible are proposed. Indicators for empirical assessment of select SHG principles are described. Global health actors, including states, must work together to correct and avert global health injustices through a framework of SHG based on shared ethical commitments.

  3. Climate Impacts in Europe Under +1.5°C Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacob, Daniela; Kotova, Lola; Teichmann, Claas; Sobolowski, Stefan P.; Vautard, Robert; Donnelly, Chantal; Koutroulis, Aristeidis G.; Grillakis, Manolis G.; Tsanis, Ioannis K.; Damm, Andrea; Sakalli, Abdulla; van Vliet, Michelle T. H.

    2018-02-01

    The Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change aims not only at avoiding +2°C warming (and even limit the temperature increase further to +1.5°C), but also sets long-term goals to guide mitigation. Therefore, the best available science is required to inform policymakers on the importance of and the adaptation needs in a +1.5°C warmer world. Seven research institutes from Europe and Turkey integrated their competencies to provide a cross-sectoral assessment of the potential impacts at a pan-European scale. The initial findings of this initiative are presented and key messages communicated. The approach is to select periods based on global warming thresholds rather than the more typical approach of selecting time periods (e.g., end of century). The results indicate that the world is likely to pass the +1.5°C threshold in the coming decades. Cross-sectoral dimensions are taken into account to show the impacts of global warming that occur in parallel in more than one sector. Also, impacts differ across sectors and regions. Alongside the negative impacts for certain sectors and regions, some positive impacts are projected. Summer tourism in parts of Western Europe may be favored by climate change; electricity demand decreases outweigh increases over most of Europe and catchment yields in hydropower regions will increase. However, such positive findings should be interpreted carefully as we do not take into account exogenous factors that can and will influence Europe such as migration patterns, food production, and economic and political instability.

  4. Efficiency, sustainability and global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woodward, Richard T.; Bishop, Richard C.

    1995-01-01

    Economic analyses of global warming have typically been grounded in the theory of economic efficiency. Such analyses may be inappropriate because many of the underlying concerns about climate change are rooted not in efficiency, but in the intergenerational allocation of economic endowments. A simple economic model is developed which demonstrates that an efficient economy is not necessarily a sustainable economy. This result leads directly to questions about the policy relevance of several economic studies of the issue. We then consider policy alternatives to address global warming in the context of economies with the dual objectives of efficiency and sustainability, with particular attention to carbon-based taxes

  5. History, Structure and Agency in Global Health Governance Comment on "Global Health Governance Challenges 2016 - Are We Ready?"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gill, Stephen; Benatar, Solomon R

    2016-08-29

    Ilona Kickbusch's thought provoking editorial is criticized in this commentary, partly because she fails to refer to previous critical work on the global conditions and policies that sustain inequality, poverty, poor health and damage to the biosphere and, as a result, she misreads global power and elides consideration of the fundamental historical structures of political and material power that shape agency in global health governance. We also doubt that global health can be improved through structures and processes of multilateralism that are premised on the continued reproduction of the ecologically myopic and socially unsustainable market civilization model of capitalist development that currently prevails in the world economy. This model drives net financial flows from poor to rich countries and from the poor to the affluent and super wealthy individuals. By contrast, we suggest that significant progress in global health requires a profound and socially just restructuring of global power, greater global solidarity and the "development of sustainability." © 2017 The Author(s); Published by Kerman University of Medical Sciences. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

  6. Species-specific vulnerability of Arctic copepods to oil contamination and global warming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dinh, Khuong Van; Nielsen, Torkel Gissel

    Arctic ecosystems are predicted to have more severe effects from global warming as during the last decades the temperatures have increased in this region at a rate of 2-4 times higher than the global average. In addition, oil exploitation and shipping activities in the Arctic are predicted...... to increase under global warming as the result of the retreat of sea ice, posing the risk of oil contamination. It is poorly known how cold adapted copepods in the Arctic deal with the combined effects of global warming and oil exposure. To address this, we exposed females of two copepods species Calanus...... of temperatures. Notably, exposure to high pyrene resulted in ca. 70% of mortality in C. finmarchicus, the species with North Atlantic Origin, that was two times higher than the mortality observed for C. glacialis, the true Arctic species. These results suggest that extreme temperature under global warming...

  7. Militarism and globalization: Is there an empirical link?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irandoust, Manuchehr

    2018-01-01

    Despite the fact that previous studies have extensively investigated the causal nexus between military expenditure and economic growth in both developed and developing countries, those studies have not considered the role of globalization. The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between militarism and globalization for the top 15 military expenditure spenders over the period 1990-2012. The bootstrap panel Granger causality approach is utilized to detect the direction of causality. The results show that military expenditure and overall globalization are causally related in most of the countries under review. This implies that countries experiencing greater globalization have relatively large increases in militarization over the past 20 years. The policy implication of the findings is that greater military spending by a country increases the likelihood of military conflict in the future, the anticipation of which discourages globalization.

  8. Sustainable and resource-conserving utilization of global land areas and biomass; Globale Landflaechen und Biomasse nachhaltig und ressourcenschonend nutzen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jering, Almut; Klatt, Anne; Seven, Jan; Ehlers, Knut; Guenther, Jens; Ostermeier, Andreas; Moench, Lars

    2012-10-15

    The contribution under consideration reports on the state of the art of biomass based land use as well as on existing and future global development trends. An ecologically compatible and socially equitable utilization of resources as well as priorities in the production and utilization of biomass are described in order to achieve their goals. Approaches to action, measures and policy recommendations are presented with respect to the development of a globally sustainable, resource-conserving utilization of land.

  9. Comparative studies of measured and estimated values of global solar radiation using Eppley pyranometer and Hargreaves Samani-model at Nsukka under varying climatic conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anikpa, P.O.; Osuji, R.U.

    2005-12-01

    This study uses the Hargreaves and Samani (HS) modified model in estimating daily global solar radiation at Nsukka. The model equation was based on daily air temperature range and extraterrestrial solar radiation. The estimated results obtained for six months, staring from 25th August, 2003 to 20th February, 2004 were compared to measured values obtained with standard Eppley pyranometer. The measurements were taken manually within the same period. The comparison indicates that in the dry season months under consideration (December, 2003; January, 2004 and February, 2004) the model clearly gave higher insolation values of the daily global solar radiation. In the wet season months considered (i.e., part of August, 2003 through November, 2003) the model showed neither a clear pattern of higher nor a lower insolation. Further correlation analysis produced neither bias for the wet season nor dry season months. This indicates that on a monthly basis, the monthly average for estimated and measured values correlated well. (author)

  10. Possible change in distribution of seaweed, Sargassum horneri, in northeast Asia under A2 scenario of global warming and consequent effect on some fish.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komatsu, Teruhisa; Fukuda, Masahiro; Mikami, Atsuko; Mizuno, Shizuha; Kantachumpoo, Attachai; Tanoue, Hideaki; Kawamiya, Michio

    2014-08-30

    Global warming effects on seaweed beds are already perceptible. Their geographical distributions greatly depend on water temperatures. To predict future geographical distributions of brown alga, Sargassum horneri, forming large beds in the northwestern Pacific, we referred to future monthly surface water temperatures at about 1.1° of longitude and 0.6° of latitude in February and August in 2050 and 2100 simulated by 12 organizations under an A2 scenario of global warming. The southern limit of S. horneri distribution is expected to keep moving northward such that it may broadly disappear from Honshu Island, the Chinese coast, and Korean Peninsula in 2100, when tropical Sargassum species such as Sargassum tenuifolium may not completely replace S. horneri. Thus, their forests in 2100 do not substitute those of S. horneri in 2000. Fishes using the beds and seaweed rafts consisting of S. horneri in East China Sea suffer these disappearances. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  11. A global, multi-disciplinary, multi-sectorial initiative to combat leptospirosis: Global Leptospirosis Environmental Action Network (GLEAN).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durski, Kara N; Jancloes, Michel; Chowdhary, Tej; Bertherat, Eric

    2014-06-05

    Leptospirosis has emerged as a major public health problem in both animals and humans. The true burden of this epidemic and endemic disease is likely to be grossly under-estimated due to the non-specific clinical presentations of the disease and the difficulty of laboratory confirmation. The complexity that surrounds the transmission dynamics, particularly in epidemic situations, requires a coordinated, multi-disciplinary effort. Therefore, the Global Leptospirosis Environmental Action Network (GLEAN) was developed to improve global and local strategies of how to predict, prevent, detect, and intervene in leptospirosis outbreaks in order to prevent and control leptospirosis in high-risk populations.

  12. Provider Behavior Under Global Budgeting and Policy Responses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chao-Kai Chang MD, PhD

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Third-party payer systems are consistently associated with health care cost escalation. Taiwan’s single-payer, universal coverage National Health Insurance (NHI adopted global budgeting (GB to achieve cost control. This study captures ophthalmologists’ response to GB, specifically service volume changes and service substitution between low-revenue and high-revenue services following GB implementation, the subsequent Bureau of NHI policy response, and the policy impact. De-identified eye clinic claims data for the years 2000, 2005, and 2007 were analyzed to study the changes in Simple Claim Form (SCF claims versus Special Case Claims (SCCs. The 3 study years represent the pre-GB period, post-GB but prior to region-wise service cap implementation period, and the post-service cap period, respectively. Repeated measures multilevel regression analysis was used to study the changes adjusting for clinic characteristics and competition within each health care market. SCF service volume (low-revenue, fixed-price patient visits remained constant throughout the study period, but SCCs (covering services involving variable provider effort and resource use with flexibility for discretionary billing increased in 2005 with no further change in 2007. The latter is attributable to a 30% cap negotiated by the NHI Bureau with the ophthalmology association and enforced by the association. This study demonstrates that GB deployed with ongoing monitoring and timely policy responses that are designed in collaboration with professional stakeholders can contain costs in a health insurance–financed health care system.

  13. Global Change Effects on Plant-Soil Interactions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dam, Marie

    of this dissertation has been to determine how soil food web structure and function is affected when the quantity and quality of plant input is altered under global change. By studying the abundance and composition of soil organisms, particularly those in the rhizosphere, closely associated with living plants, we...... (Paper III). Furthermore, by way of meta-analysis, the role of organisms in global change effects on ecosystem function is modelled (Paper IV). Among CO2, warming and summer drought, CO2 is the factor most consistently impacting soil organisms. CO2 increases abundance of microorganisms and nematodes...... suggest that not only the global change effects on established ecosystems, but also the global change effects on plant community composition as well as land use management may determine the composition and function of soil food webs in the future....

  14. Determinants and predictability of global wildfire emissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Knorr

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Biomass burning is one of the largest sources of atmospheric trace gases and aerosols globally. These emissions have a major impact on the radiative balance of the atmosphere and on air quality, and are thus of significant scientific and societal interest. Several datasets have been developed that quantify those emissions on a global grid and offered to the atmospheric modelling community. However, no study has yet attempted to systematically quantify the dependence of the inferred pyrogenic emissions on underlying assumptions and input data. Such a sensitivity study is needed for understanding how well we can currently model those emissions and what the factors are that contribute to uncertainties in those emission estimates.

    Here, we combine various satellite-derived burned area products, a terrestrial ecosystem model to simulate fuel loads and the effect of fire on ecosystem dynamics, a model of fuel combustion, and various emission models that relate combusted biomass to the emission of various trace gases and aerosols. We carry out simulations with varying parameters for combustion completeness and fuel decomposition rates within published estimates, four different emissions models and three different global burned-area products. We find that variations in combustion completeness and simulated fuel loads have the largest impact on simulated global emissions for most species, except for some with highly uncertain emission factors. Variation in burned-area estimates also contribute considerably to emission uncertainties. We conclude that global models urgently need more field-based data for better parameterisation of combustion completeness and validation of simulated fuel loads, and that further validation and improvement of burned area information is necessary for accurately modelling global wildfire emissions. The results are important for chemical transport modelling studies, and for simulations of biomass burning impacts on the

  15. Fusion power in a future low carbon global electricity system

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cabal, H.; Lechón, Y.; Bustreo, C.

    2017-01-01

    Fusion is one of the technologies that may contribute to a future, low carbon, global energy supply system. In this article we investigate the role that it may play under different scenarios. The global energy model ETM (originally EFDA TIMES Model) has been used to analyse the participation...

  16. Determination of global heart function parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adam, W.E.; Hoffmann, H.; Sigel, H.; Bitter, F.; Nechwatal, W.; Stauch, M.; Ulm Univ.; Freiburg Univ.

    1980-01-01

    1. ECG-triggered scintigraphy of the interior of the heart (radioactive ventriculography) is a reliable non-invasive technique for the acquisition of the global and regional function of the left ventricle. 2. The most important global parameter is the output function (OF) of the left ventricle. It can be measured exactly. The decrease of the OF under load is typical for coronary insufficience under load, but is not specifically. 3. A movement disturbance on the ground of a KHK is recognized with highest sensitivity at the decrease of the maximum relaxation velocity of the global left-ventricular time-activity characteristic (fast phase of filling). 4. Regional wall movement disturbances can be measured quantitatively by means of viewing the radioactive nucleid ventriculogramm at the display. 5. The quantitative measurement of the regional function needs an extensive analysis of the local time-activity characteristics of a representative coronary cycle. For this the amplitude and phase and the contraction and relaxation velocity of all time-activity characteristics is determined by Fourier analysis and their spatial distribution is drawn (parametric scan). 6. The parametric scans (distribution of amplitude, phase, contraction and relaxation velocities) describe the regional wall movement in detail, the reliability of its quantitative acquisition has to be approved by further investigations. (orig.) [de

  17. Multi-Model Assessment of Global Hydropower and Cooling Water Discharge Potential Under Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Vliet, M. T. H.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Eisener, S.; Wada, Y.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

    2016-01-01

    Worldwide, 98% of total electricity is currently produced by thermoelectric power and hydropower. Climate change is expected to directly impact electricity supply, in terms of both water availability for hydropower generation and cooling water usage for thermoelectric power. Improved understanding of how climate change may impact the availability and temperature of water resources is therefore of major importance. Here we use a multi-model ensemble to show the potential impacts of climate change on global hydropower and cooling water discharge potential. For the first time, combined projections of streamflow and water temperature were produced with three global hydrological models (GHMs) to account for uncertainties in the structure and parametrization of these GHMs in both water availability and water temperature. The GHMs were forced with bias-corrected output of five general circulation models (GCMs) for both the lowest and highest representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The ensemble projections of streamflow and water temperature were then used to quantify impacts on gross hydropower potential and cooling water discharge capacity of rivers worldwide. We show that global gross hydropower potential is expected to increase between +2.4% (GCM-GHM ensemble mean for RCP 2.6) and +6.3% (RCP 8.5) for the 2080s compared to 1971-2000. The strongest increases in hydropower potential are expected for Central Africa, India, central Asia and the northern high-latitudes, with 18-33% of the world population living in these areas by the 2080s. Global mean cooling water discharge capacity is projected to decrease by 4.5-15% (2080s). The largest reductions are found for the United States, Europe, eastern Asia, and southern parts of South America, Africa and Australia, where strong water temperature increases are projected combined with reductions in mean annual streamflow. These regions are expected to affect 11-14% (for RCP2.6 and the shared socioeconomic

  18. Global warming -- Science and anti-science

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Preining, O. [Univ. of Vienna, Wien (Austria). Inst. for Experimental Physics]|[Austrian Academy of Sciences, Wien (Austria). Clean Air Commission

    1995-06-01

    The global warming debate has sparked many facts activities in almost all sectors of human endeavors. There are the hard facts, the measurements of the greenhouse gases, the statistics of human activities responsible for emissions, the demographic figures. There are the soft facts, the interpretations of the hard facts requiring additional assumptions. There are the media, the press, television, for whom environmental problems make good stories, these can be used to rise emotions, to make heroes and antiheroes. There are politicians, the global warming debate can be used even in electron campaigns. Global warming is a topic within and beyond science. The judgment (and hence use) of scientific facts is overwhelmingly influenced by the ``Weltbild`` (underlying beliefs how the world operates), and consequently opposing positions of well-known scientists arise. There are the attempts to invent futures of man on Earth: policies, regulations, laws on nation, international, and global levels shall facilitate a change in the basic behavior of all men. The global warming issue has many facets and cannot be successfully discussed without including, e.g., the North-South dialogue, world population, etc.

  19. Global chaos synchronization with channel time-delay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang Guoping; Zheng Weixing; Chen Guanrong

    2004-01-01

    This paper addresses a practical issue in chaos synchronization where there is a time-delay in the receiver as compared with the transmitter. A new synchronization scheme and a general criterion for global chaos synchronization are proposed and developed from the approach of unidirectional linear error feedback coupling with time-delay. The chaotic Chua's circuit is used for illustration, where the coupling parameters are determined according to the criterion under which the global chaos synchronization of the time-delay coupled systems is achieved

  20. A Brief Analysis on Cross-cultural Communication Strategy of Chinese Films under the Context of Globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cao Zhiyong

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available With the development of globalization waves, the cross-cultural communication becomes more and more common nowadays. Chinese films, as a kind of mass media and the carrier of ideology, must meet the challenge in the world with active attitudes and take part in cross-cultural communication worldwide extensively. The context of globalization is not only a challenge but also an opportunity for Chinese films and if Chinese films want to be successful in the process of cross-cultural communication, it must find out a conjoint point between globalization and location to implement dual-coding of them. With the objective of consensus but different for the cultural demands of cross-cultural communication, the communicational strategies in culture,subject,art and operation must extensively use for reference and boldly create to renew the situation of Chinese films.

  1. THE ROMANIAN CONSUMER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE GLOBAL CRISIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SAVU MIHAELA

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available At present, consumers focus on meeting their higher needs, as opposed to previously meeting the base ones. However this trend is not among priorities for the Romanian consumer. He/she uses almost 43% of the total consumption expenditures for the purchase of food, being restricted in his/her choices by the income and the price of products. The food products analysed in the period 2001 – 2012 have an upward trend, but with no substantial differences. The only product category that has a downward trend is represented by wine and wine products. Consumption in Romania was negatively influenced by the effects of the global crisis for the products analysed, except for meat and meat products. Despite the fact that we are far from the average annual meat consumption, however, the highest quantity recorded in our country was in 2009.

  2. Global fate of POPs: Current and future research directions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lohmann, Rainer; Breivik, Knut; Dachs, Jordi; Muir, Derek

    2007-01-01

    For legacy and emerging persistent organic pollutants (POPs), surprisingly little is still known in quantitative terms about their global sources and emissions. Atmospheric transport has been identified as the key global dispersal mechanism for most legacy POPs. In contrast, transport by ocean currents may prove to be the main transport route for many polar, emerging POPs. This is linked to the POPs' intrinsic physico-chemical properties, as exemplified by the different fate of hexachlorocyclohexanes in the Arctic. Similarly, our current understanding of POPs' global transport and fate remains sketchy. The importance of organic carbon and global temperature differences have been accepted as key drivers of POPs' global distribution. However, future research will need to understand the various biogeochemical and geophysical cycles under anthropogenic pressures to be able to understand and predict the global fate of POPs accurately. - Future studies into the global fate of POPs will need to pay more attention to the various biogeochemical and anthropogenic cycles to better understand emissions, transport and sinks

  3. The Growth of Private Regulation of Labor Standards in Global Supply Chains

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Jette Steen

    2013-01-01

    Multinational corporations (MNCs) have come under pressure to adopt private regulatory initiatives such as supplier codes of conduct in order to address poor working conditions in global supply chain factories. While a well-known literature explores drivers and outcomes of such monitoring schemes...... requirements in global supply chains even though compliance is a “mission impossible” for many smaller firms. As a result of this development, the private regulatory system is facing growing strain.......Multinational corporations (MNCs) have come under pressure to adopt private regulatory initiatives such as supplier codes of conduct in order to address poor working conditions in global supply chain factories. While a well-known literature explores drivers and outcomes of such monitoring schemes......, this literature focuses mainly on large firms and has ignored the growing integration of small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) into global supply chains. Furthermore, the literature on corporate social responsibility (CSR) in SMEs primarily emphasizes domestic initiatives and not global challenges. Focusing...

  4. Global wind energy outlook 2006

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-09-01

    The global market for wind power has been expanding faster than any other source of renewable energy. From just 4,800 MW in 1995 the world total has multiplied more than twelve-fold to reach over 59,000 MW at the end of 2005. The international market is expected to have an annual turnover in 2006 of more than euro 13 billion, with an estimated 150,000 people employed around the world. The success of the industry has attracted investors from the mainstream finance and traditional energy sectors. In a number of countries the proportion of electricity generated by wind power is now challenging conventional fuels. The Global Wind Energy Outlook 2006 reports that over a third of the world's electricity - crucially including that required by industry - can realistically be supplied by wind energy by the middle of the century. The report provides an industry blueprint that explains how wind power could supply 34% of the world's electricity by 2050. Most importantly, it concludes that if wind turbine capacity implemented on this scale it would save 113 billion tonnes of CO2 from entering the atmosphere by 2050. This places wind power as one of the world's most important energy sources for the 21st century. The 'Global Wind Energy Outlook 2006' runs three different scenarios for wind power - a Reference scenario based on figures from the International Energy Agency (IEA); a Moderate version which assumes that current targets for renewable energy are successful; and an advanced version assuming that all policy options in favour of renewables have been adopted. These are then set against two scenarios for global energy demand. Under the Reference scenario, growth in demand is again based on IEA projections; under the High Energy Efficiency version, a range of energy efficiency measures result in a substantial reduction in demand

  5. Estimation of the global regularity of a multifractional Brownian motion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lebovits, Joachim; Podolskij, Mark

    This paper presents a new estimator of the global regularity index of a multifractional Brownian motion. Our estimation method is based upon a ratio statistic, which compares the realized global quadratic variation of a multifractional Brownian motion at two different frequencies. We show that a ...... that a logarithmic transformation of this statistic converges in probability to the minimum of the Hurst functional parameter, which is, under weak assumptions, identical to the global regularity index of the path....

  6. Human dimensions of global change: Toward a research agenda

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burton, I.

    1991-01-01

    The Earth's environment is being transformed by human activity. Human activity, in turn, is being affected by these transformations. This interaction is being studied under the aegis of global change in the geosphere-biosphere. The purpose here is to explore the basis for and the substance of a proposed research program focused on the human dimensions of global change. Global warming due to the greenhouse effect, CO2 reduction, environment impacts, land use management, and the removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere are among the topics covered

  7. GAR Global Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

  8. Climate change alters low flows in Europe under global warming of 1.5, 2, and 3 °C

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Marx

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available There is growing evidence that climate change will alter water availability in Europe. Here, we investigate how hydrological low flows are affected under different levels of future global warming (i.e. 1.5, 2, and 3 K with respect to the pre-industrial period in rivers with a contributing area of more than 1000 km2. The analysis is based on a multi-model ensemble of 45 hydrological simulations based on three representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP6.0, RCP8.5, five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5 general circulation models (GCMs: GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, NorESM1-M and three state-of-the-art hydrological models (HMs: mHM, Noah-MP, and PCR-GLOBWB. High-resolution model results are available at a spatial resolution of 5 km across the pan-European domain at a daily temporal resolution. Low river flow is described as the percentile of daily streamflow that is exceeded 90 % of the time. It is determined separately for each GCM/HM combination and warming scenario. The results show that the low-flow change signal amplifies with increasing warming levels. Low flows decrease in the Mediterranean region, while they increase in the Alpine and Northern regions. In the Mediterranean, the level of warming amplifies the signal from −12 % under 1.5 K, compared to the baseline period 1971–2000, to −35 % under global warming of 3 K, largely due to the projected decreases in annual precipitation. In contrast, the signal is amplified from +22 (1.5 K to +45 % (3 K in the Alpine region due to changes in snow accumulation. The changes in low flows are significant for regions with relatively large change signals and under higher levels of warming. However, it is not possible to distinguish climate-induced differences in low flows between 1.5 and 2 K warming because of (1 the large inter-annual variability which prevents distinguishing statistical estimates of period

  9. State Support: A Prerequisite for Global Health Network Effectiveness Comment on "Four Challenges that Global Health Networks Face".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marten, Robert; Smith, Richard D

    2017-07-24

    Shiffman recently summarized lessons for network effectiveness from an impressive collection of case-studies. However, in common with most global health governance analysis in recent years, Shiffman underplays the important role of states in these global networks. As the body which decides and signs international agreements, often provides the resourcing, and is responsible for implementing initiatives all contributing to the prioritization of certain issues over others, state recognition and support is a prerequisite to enabling and determining global health networks' success. The role of states deserves greater attention, analysis and consideration. We reflect upon the underappreciated role of the state within the current discourse on global health. We present the tobacco case study to illustrate the decisive role of states in determining progress for global health networks, and highlight how states use a legitimacy loop to gain legitimacy from and provide legitimacy to global health networks. Moving forward in assessing global health networks' effectiveness, further investigating state support as a determinant of success will be critical. Understanding how global health networks and states interact and evolve to shape and support their respective interests should be a focus for future research. © 2018 The Author(s); Published by Kerman University of Medical Sciences. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

  10. Corporate social responsibility in the new global economy

    OpenAIRE

    Lindfelt, Lise-Lotte

    2002-01-01

    This paper is a discussion of the rights and responsibilities of global corporations. Multinational and transnational corporations of the new economy face a serious difficulty in being ethical today. The environment is subject to the enormous influence of material monism and ethics becomes at times a question of profits. This paper discusses a few aspects on ethical marketing strategies, the use of ethical codes and corporate survival under the pressures of increasing globalization. The purpo...

  11. Divergent surface and total soil moisture projections under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, Alexis; Sheffield, Justin; Milly, Paul C.D.

    2017-01-01

    Land aridity has been projected to increase with global warming. Such projections are mostly based on off-line aridity and drought metrics applied to climate model outputs but also are supported by climate-model projections of decreased surface soil moisture. Here we comprehensively analyze soil moisture projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5, including surface, total, and layer-by-layer soil moisture. We identify a robust vertical gradient of projected mean soil moisture changes, with more negative changes near the surface. Some regions of the northern middle to high latitudes exhibit negative annual surface changes but positive total changes. We interpret this behavior in the context of seasonal changes in the surface water budget. This vertical pattern implies that the extensive drying predicted by off-line drought metrics, while consistent with the projected decline in surface soil moisture, will tend to overestimate (negatively) changes in total soil water availability.

  12. Global warming potential and greenhouse gas emission under different soil nutrient management practices in soybean-wheat system of central India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenka, Sangeeta; Lenka, Narendra Kumar; Singh, Amar Bahadur; Singh, B; Raghuwanshi, Jyothi

    2017-02-01

    Soil nutrient management is a key component contributing to the greenhouse gas (GHG) flux and mitigation potential of agricultural production systems. However, the effect of soil nutrient management practices on GHG flux and global warming potential (GWP) is less understood in agricultural soils of India. The present study was conducted to compare three nutrient management systems practiced for nine consecutive years in a soybean-wheat cropping system in the Vertisols of India, in terms of GHG flux and GWP. The treatments were composed of 100% organic (ONM), 100% inorganic (NPK), and integrated nutrient management (INM) with 50% organic + 50% inorganic inputs. The gas samples for GHGs (CO 2 , CH 4 , and N 2 O) were collected by static chamber method at about 15-day interval during 2012-13 growing season. The change in soil organic carbon (SOC) content was estimated in terms of the changes in SOC stock in the 0-15 cm soil over the 9-year period covering 2004 to 2013. There was a net uptake of CH 4 in all the treatments in both soybean and wheat crop seasons. The cumulative N 2 O and CO 2 emissions were in the order of INM > ONM > NPK with significant difference between treatments (p < 0.05) in both the crop seasons. The annual GWP, expressed in terms of CH 4 and N 2 O emission, also followed the same trend and was estimated to be 1126, 1002, and 896 kg CO 2 eq ha -1  year -1 under INM, ONM, and NPK treatments, respectively. However, the change in SOC stock was significantly higher under ONM (1250 kg ha -1  year -1 ) followed by INM (417 kg ha -1  year -1 ) and least under NPK (198 kg ha -1  year -1 ) treatment. The wheat equivalent yield was similar under ONM and INM treatments and was significantly lower under NPK treatment. Thus, the GWP per unit grain yield was lower under ONM followed by NPK and INM treatments and varied from 250, 261, and 307 kg CO 2 eq Mg -1 grain yield under ONM, NPK, and INM treatments, respectively.

  13. Global warming and extinctions of endemic species from biodiversity hotspots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jay R. Malcolm; Canran Liu; Ronald P. Neilson; Lara Hansen; Lee. Hannah

    2006-01-01

    Global warming is a key threat to biodiversity, but few researchers have assessed the magnitude of this threat at the global scale. We used major vegetation types (biomes) as proxies for natural habitats and, based on projected future biome distributions under doubled-C02 climates, calculated changes in habitat areas and associated extinctions of...

  14. Global Cities and Multinational Enterprise Location Strategy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Goerzen, Anthony; Geisler Asmussen, Christian; Nielsen, Bo Bernhard

    2013-01-01

    We combine the concept of location derived by economic geographers with theories of the multinational enterprise (MNE) and the liability of foreignness developed by international business scholars, to examine the factors that propel MNEs toward, or away from, “global cities”. We argue that three...... distinctive characteristics of global cities – global interconnectedness, cosmopolitanism, and abundance of advanced producer services – help MNEs overcome the costs of doing business abroad, and we identify the contingencies under which these characteristics combine with firm attributes to exert......- and subsidiary-level factors, including investment motives, proprietary capabilities, and business strategy. Our study provides important insights for international business scholars by shedding new light on MNE location choices and also contributes to our understanding of economic geography by examining...

  15. Alternative legal and institutional approaches to global change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thacher, P.S.

    1991-01-01

    The processes of global change currently under way cannot be dealt with in isolation. Factors linked to environmental quality such as demographic growth, economic interdependence and indebtedness, sociopolitical changes, and others must be managed collectively. In looking at the problems of global change, a central question before us is: How comprehensive should a legal regime be in a world of considerable uncertainty in which everything is interrelated with everything else, and what we do may, or may not be, have irreversible consequences for future generations. This article focuses on the problem of global warming to provide a model approach to the larger issues of global change. This reduces the scope of global change to a manageable but representative class of the problems at issue. The author suggests an approach to stabilize global climate by the end of the next century. However, even within this relatively narrow context of stabilizing the climate, a comprehensive approach is needed to address all heat-trapping gases - not just CO 2 - to ensure that all human activities generating these gases are managed properly, without causing other problems

  16. Operationalizing resilience for adaptive coral reef management under global environmental change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anthony, Kenneth R N; Marshall, Paul A; Abdulla, Ameer; Beeden, Roger; Bergh, Chris; Black, Ryan; Eakin, C Mark; Game, Edward T; Gooch, Margaret; Graham, Nicholas A J; Green, Alison; Heron, Scott F; van Hooidonk, Ruben; Knowland, Cheryl; Mangubhai, Sangeeta; Marshall, Nadine; Maynard, Jeffrey A; McGinnity, Peter; McLeod, Elizabeth; Mumby, Peter J; Nyström, Magnus; Obura, David; Oliver, Jamie; Possingham, Hugh P; Pressey, Robert L; Rowlands, Gwilym P; Tamelander, Jerker; Wachenfeld, David; Wear, Stephanie

    2015-01-01

    Cumulative pressures from global climate and ocean change combined with multiple regional and local-scale stressors pose fundamental challenges to coral reef managers worldwide. Understanding how cumulative stressors affect coral reef vulnerability is critical for successful reef conservation now and in the future. In this review, we present the case that strategically managing for increased ecological resilience (capacity for stress resistance and recovery) can reduce coral reef vulnerability (risk of net decline) up to a point. Specifically, we propose an operational framework for identifying effective management levers to enhance resilience and support management decisions that reduce reef vulnerability. Building on a system understanding of biological and ecological processes that drive resilience of coral reefs in different environmental and socio-economic settings, we present an Adaptive Resilience-Based management (ARBM) framework and suggest a set of guidelines for how and where resilience can be enhanced via management interventions. We argue that press-type stressors (pollution, sedimentation, overfishing, ocean warming and acidification) are key threats to coral reef resilience by affecting processes underpinning resistance and recovery, while pulse-type (acute) stressors (e.g. storms, bleaching events, crown-of-thorns starfish outbreaks) increase the demand for resilience. We apply the framework to a set of example problems for Caribbean and Indo-Pacific reefs. A combined strategy of active risk reduction and resilience support is needed, informed by key management objectives, knowledge of reef ecosystem processes and consideration of environmental and social drivers. As climate change and ocean acidification erode the resilience and increase the vulnerability of coral reefs globally, successful adaptive management of coral reefs will become increasingly difficult. Given limited resources, on-the-ground solutions are likely to focus increasingly on

  17. Ice-free Arctic projections under the Paris Agreement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sigmond, Michael; Fyfe, John C.; Swart, Neil C.

    2018-05-01

    Under the Paris Agreement, emissions scenarios are pursued that would stabilize the global mean temperature at 1.5-2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels, but current emission reduction policies are expected to limit warming by 2100 to approximately 3.0 °C. Whether such emissions scenarios would prevent a summer sea-ice-free Arctic is unknown. Here we employ stabilized warming simulations with an Earth System Model to obtain sea-ice projections under stabilized global warming, and correct biases in mean sea-ice coverage by constraining with observations. Although there is some sensitivity to details in the constraining method, the observationally constrained projections suggest that the benefits of going from 2.0 °C to 1.5 °C stabilized warming are substantial; an eightfold decrease in the frequency of ice-free conditions is expected, from once in every five to once in every forty years. Under 3.0 °C global mean warming, however, permanent summer ice-free conditions are likely, which emphasizes the need for nations to increase their commitments to the Paris Agreement.

  18. A New Gilded Age, and What It Means for Global Health Comment on "Global Health Governance Challenges 2016 - Are We Ready?"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schrecker, Ted

    2016-08-17

    New contours of global inequality present new challenges for global health, and require that we consider new kinds of health issues as global. I provide a number of illustrations, arguing the need for a political science of health that goes beyond conventional preoccupations with formal institutional and inter-state interactions and takes into account how globalization has affected the health policy landscape and restructured the distribution of economic and political power not only among countries, but also within them. © 2017 The Author(s); Published by Kerman University of Medical Sciences. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

  19. Global designs, postcolonial critiques: rethinking Canada in dialogue with diaspora Global designs, postcolonial critiques: rethinking Canada in dialogue with diaspora

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diana Brydon

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper approaches the comparative examination of Brazil and Canada in the context of engagements with postcolonial theory obliquely, rather than directly, through reframing the comparison within the contexts posed by Paul Gilroy in The Black Atlantic, and by contemporary globalization theories and indigenous global activism, when considered through a postcolonial lens. Accepting John Tomlinson’s idea (in Globalization and Culture that the “complex connectivities” of globalizing practices and discourses “confound” conventional social science practices, this paper suggests that literary texts that engage these issues may enjoy an advantage in negotiating such complexities. But it also argues that new configurations of diaspora and globalization offer writers and readers the chance to shift literature away from its conventional constructions as both autonomous and transcendent, on the one hand, and nation-affirming, on the other. Through a close comparative reading of Okanagan writer Jeannette Armstrong’s novel, Whispering in Shadows, and Caribbean-Canadian Nalo Hopkinson’s utopian science fiction, Brown Girl in the Ring, I seek to model a postcolonial reading practice attentive to cultural difference and global challenges. Each story addresses colonial legacies and global designs through the reconstruction of a relational autonomy that redefines humanity and community through re-energizing beliefs and practices abandoned under colonial modernity. Each text challenges mainstream models for mapping Canadian identity and its place within the Americas. They work to break the illusion of Western progress that fuels contemporary globalization and to redefine global connectivities from within the perspectives of formerly subjugated knowledge systems and a local ground. This paper approaches the comparative examination of Brazil and Canada in the context of engagements with postcolonial theory obliquely, rather than directly, through

  20. Global magnetohydrodynamic instabilities in the L-2M stellarator

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mikhailov, M. I., E-mail: mikhaylov-mi@nrcki.ru [National Research Centre Kurchatov Institute (Russian Federation); Shchepetov, S. V., E-mail: shch@fpl.gpi.ru [Russian Academy of Sciences, Prokhorov General Physics Institute (Russian Federation); Nührenberg, C.; Nührenberg, J. [Max-Planck-Institut für Plasmaphysik (Germany)

    2015-12-15

    Analysis of global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) instabilities in the L-2M stellarator (Prokhorov General Physics Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences) is presented. The properties of free-boundary equilibria states are outlined, the stability conditions for small-scale modes are briefly discussed, and the number of trapped particles is estimated. All the magnetic configurations under study are stable against ballooning modes. It is shown that global ideal internal MHD modes can be found reliably only in Mercier unstable plasmas. In plasma that is stable with respect to the Mercier criterion, global unstable modes that are localized in the vicinity of the free plasma boundary and are not associated with any rational magnetic surface inside the plasma (the so-called peeling modes) can be found. The radial structure of all perturbations under study is almost entirely determined by the poloidal coupling of harmonics. The results of calculations are compared with the available experimental data.

  1. Food supply and bioenergy production within the global cropland planetary boundary.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henry, R C; Engström, K; Olin, S; Alexander, P; Arneth, A; Rounsevell, M D A

    2018-01-01

    Supplying food for the anticipated global population of over 9 billion in 2050 under changing climate conditions is one of the major challenges of the 21st century. Agricultural expansion and intensification contributes to global environmental change and risks the long-term sustainability of the planet. It has been proposed that no more than 15% of the global ice-free land surface should be converted to cropland. Bioenergy production for land-based climate mitigation places additional pressure on limited land resources. Here we test normative targets of food supply and bioenergy production within the cropland planetary boundary using a global land-use model. The results suggest supplying the global population with adequate food is possible without cropland expansion exceeding the planetary boundary. Yet this requires an increase in food production, especially in developing countries, as well as a decrease in global crop yield gaps. However, under current assumptions of future food requirements, it was not possible to also produce significant amounts of first generation bioenergy without cropland expansion. These results suggest that meeting food and bioenergy demands within the planetary boundaries would need a shift away from current trends, for example, requiring major change in the demand-side of the food system or advancing biotechnologies.

  2. Applying a World-City Network Approach to Globalizing Higher Education: Conceptualization, Data Collection and the Lists of World Cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chow, Alice S. Y.; Loo, Becky P. Y.

    2015-01-01

    Both the commercial and education sectors experience an increase in inter-city exchanges in the forms of goods, capital, commands, people and information/knowledge under globalization. The quantification of flows and structural relations among cities in globalizing education are under-researched compared to the well-established world/global cities…

  3. Coexistence of synchrony and incoherence in oscillatory media under nonlinear global coupling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schmidt, Lennart; García-Morales, Vladimir [Physik-Department, Nonequilibrium Chemical Physics, Technische Universität München, James-Franck-Str. 1, D-85748 Garching (Germany); Institute for Advanced Study, Technische Universität München, Lichtenbergstr. 2a, D-85748 Garching (Germany); Schönleber, Konrad; Krischer, Katharina, E-mail: krischer@tum.de [Physik-Department, Nonequilibrium Chemical Physics, Technische Universität München, James-Franck-Str. 1, D-85748 Garching (Germany)

    2014-03-15

    We report a novel mechanism for the formation of chimera states, a peculiar spatiotemporal pattern with coexisting synchronized and incoherent domains found in ensembles of identical oscillators. Considering Stuart-Landau oscillators, we demonstrate that a nonlinear global coupling can induce this symmetry breaking. We find chimera states also in a spatially extended system, a modified complex Ginzburg-Landau equation. This theoretical prediction is validated with an oscillatory electrochemical system, the electro-oxidation of silicon, where the spontaneous formation of chimeras is observed without any external feedback control.

  4. DEVELOPMENT OF CORPORATE SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY UNDER AGGRAVATION OF THE CONTEMPORARY GLOBAL ISSUES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Grazhevska

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the role and importance of corporate social responsibility as an important mechanism for overcoming the crisis of the welfare state and to mitigate the social problems caused by the world globalization processes. The experience of post-socialist countries, the Baltic States and Ukraine in this field is analyzed and barriers to effective implementation of CSR in the national economy are identified. The priority of the state policy to promote socially responsible business behavior in Ukraine is proved.

  5. Global simulation of interactions between groundwater and terrestrial ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braakhekke, M. C.; Rebel, K.; Dekker, S. C.; Smith, B.; Van Beek, L. P.; Sutanudjaja, E.; van Kampenhout, L.; Wassen, M. J.

    2016-12-01

    In many places in the world ecosystems are influenced by the presence of a shallow groundwater table. In these regions upward water flux due to capillary rise increases soil moisture availability in the root zone, which has strong positive effect on evapotranspiration. Additionally it has important consequences for vegetation dynamics and fluxes of carbon and nitrogen. Under water limited conditions shallow groundwater stimulates vegetation productivity, and soil organic matter decomposition while under saturated conditions groundwater may have a negative effect on these processes due to lack of oxygen. Furthermore, since plant species differ with respect to their root distribution, preference for moisture conditions, and resistance to oxygen stress, shallow groundwater also influences vegetation type. Finally, processes such as denitrification and methane production occur under strictly anaerobic conditions and are thus strongly influenced by moisture availability. Most global hydrological models and several land surface models simulate groundwater table dynamics and their effects on land surface processes. However, these models typically have relatively simplistic representation of vegetation and do not consider changes in vegetation type and structure and are therefore less suitable to represent effects of groundwater on biogeochemical fluxes. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), describe land surface from an ecological perspective, combining detailed description of vegetation dynamics and structure and biogeochemical processes. These models are thus more appropriate to simulate the ecological and biogeochemical effects of groundwater interactions. However, currently virtually all DGVMs ignore these effects, assuming that water tables are too deep to affect soil moisture in the root zone. We have implemented a tight coupling between the dynamic global ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS and the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. Using this coupled model we aim to

  6. Globalization and Its Impact on the Middle East

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-12-01

    some 200 years ago. It began in 1798 when the Ottoman rule was weak. Then under control of Britain and France , the post- World War I colonial era came...existing government rather than lose their power to the forces of globalization. An independent bourgeoisie will be the partner of the state in order...region. Globalization poses threat to the authoritarian states as well as to the bourgeoisie classes aligned with the state. There is a need to resolve

  7. Global health and global health ethics

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Benatar, S. R; Brock, Gillian

    2011-01-01

    ...? What are our responsibilities and how can we improve global health? Global Health and Global Health Ethics addresses these questions from the perspective of a range of disciplines, including medicine, philosophy and the social sciences...

  8. Global health in the 21st century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laaser, Ulrich; Brand, Helmut

    2014-01-01

    Since the end of the 1990s, globalization has become a common term, facilitated by the social media of today and the growing public awareness of life-threatening problems common to all people, such as global warming, global security and global divides. For the main parameters of health like the burden of disease, life expectancy and healthy life expectancy, extreme discrepancies are observed across the world. Infant mortality, malnutrition and high fertility go hand in hand. Civil society, as an indispensable activator of public health development, mainly represented by non-governmental organisations (NGOs), is characterised by a high degree of fragmentation and lack of public accountability. The World Federation of Public Health Associations is used as an example of an NGO with a global mission and fostering regional cooperation as an indispensable intermediate level.The lack of a globally valid terminology of basic public health functions is prohibitive for coordinated global and regional efforts. Attempts to harmonise essential public health functions, services and operations are under way to facilitate communication and mutual understanding. 1) Given the limited effects of the Millennium Development Goal agenda, the Post-2015 Development Goals should focus on integrated regional development. 2) A code of conduct for NGOs should be urgently developed for the health sector, and NGOs should be registered and accredited. 3) The harmonisation of the basic terminology for global public health essentials should be enhanced.

  9. Global analysis of crisis in twin-well Duffing system under harmonic excitation in presence of noise

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu Wei; He Qun; Fang Tong; Rong Haiwu

    2005-01-01

    Evolution of a crisis in a twin-well Duffing system under a harmonic excitation in presence of noise is explored in detail by the generalized cell mapping with digraph (GCMD in short) method. System parameters are chosen in the range that there co-exist chaotic attractors and/or chaotic saddles, together with their evolution. Due to noise effects, chaotic attractors and chaotic saddles here are all noisy (random or stochastic) ones, so is the crisis. Thus, noisy crisis happens whenever a noisy chaotic attractor collides with a noisy saddle, whether the latter is chaotic or not. A crisis, which results in sudden appear (or dismissal) of a chaotic attractor, together with its attractive basin, is called a catastrophic one. In addition, a crisis, which just results in sudden change of the size of a chaotic attractor and its attractive basin, is called an explosive one. Our study reveals that noisy catastrophic crisis and noisy explosive crisis often occur alternatively during the evolutionary long run of noisy crisis. Our study also reveals that the generalized cell mapping with digraph method is a powerful tool for global analysis of crisis, capable of providing clear and vivid scenarios of the mechanism of development, occurrence, and evolution of a noisy crisis

  10. Shortwave and longwave radiative contributions to global warming under increasing CO2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donohoe, Aaron; Armour, Kyle C.; Pendergrass, Angeline G.; Battisti, David S.

    2014-01-01

    In response to increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2, high-end general circulation models (GCMs) simulate an accumulation of energy at the top of the atmosphere not through a reduction in outgoing longwave radiation (OLR)—as one might expect from greenhouse gas forcing—but through an enhancement of net absorbed solar radiation (ASR). A simple linear radiative feedback framework is used to explain this counterintuitive behavior. It is found that the timescale over which OLR returns to its initial value after a CO2 perturbation depends sensitively on the magnitude of shortwave (SW) feedbacks. If SW feedbacks are sufficiently positive, OLR recovers within merely several decades, and any subsequent global energy accumulation is because of enhanced ASR only. In the GCM mean, this OLR recovery timescale is only 20 y because of robust SW water vapor and surface albedo feedbacks. However, a large spread in the net SW feedback across models (because of clouds) produces a range of OLR responses; in those few models with a weak SW feedback, OLR takes centuries to recover, and energy accumulation is dominated by reduced OLR. Observational constraints of radiative feedbacks—from satellite radiation and surface temperature data—suggest an OLR recovery timescale of decades or less, consistent with the majority of GCMs. Altogether, these results suggest that, although greenhouse gas forcing predominantly acts to reduce OLR, the resulting global warming is likely caused by enhanced ASR. PMID:25385628

  11. Shortwave and longwave radiative contributions to global warming under increasing CO2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donohoe, Aaron; Armour, Kyle C; Pendergrass, Angeline G; Battisti, David S

    2014-11-25

    In response to increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2, high-end general circulation models (GCMs) simulate an accumulation of energy at the top of the atmosphere not through a reduction in outgoing longwave radiation (OLR)—as one might expect from greenhouse gas forcing—but through an enhancement of net absorbed solar radiation (ASR). A simple linear radiative feedback framework is used to explain this counterintuitive behavior. It is found that the timescale over which OLR returns to its initial value after a CO2 perturbation depends sensitively on the magnitude of shortwave (SW) feedbacks. If SW feedbacks are sufficiently positive, OLR recovers within merely several decades, and any subsequent global energy accumulation is because of enhanced ASR only. In the GCM mean, this OLR recovery timescale is only 20 y because of robust SW water vapor and surface albedo feedbacks. However, a large spread in the net SW feedback across models (because of clouds) produces a range of OLR responses; in those few models with a weak SW feedback, OLR takes centuries to recover, and energy accumulation is dominated by reduced OLR. Observational constraints of radiative feedbacks—from satellite radiation and surface temperature data—suggest an OLR recovery timescale of decades or less, consistent with the majority of GCMs. Altogether, these results suggest that, although greenhouse gas forcing predominantly acts to reduce OLR, the resulting global warming is likely caused by enhanced ASR.

  12. Knowledge Management and Global Information Dissemination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Umunadi, Ejiwoke Kennedy

    2014-01-01

    The paper looked at knowledge management and global information dissemination. Knowledge is a very powerful tool for survival, growth and development. It can be seen as the information, understanding and skills that you gain through education or experience. The paper was addressed under the following sub-headings: Knowledge management knowledge…

  13. Global fate of POPs: Current and future research directions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lohmann, Rainer [Graduate School of Oceanography, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI 02882-1197 (United States)], E-mail: lohmann@gso.uri.edu; Breivik, Knut [Norwegian Institute for Air Research, PO Box 100, NO-2027 Kjeller (Norway); University of Oslo, Department of Chemistry, PO Box 1033, NO-0315 Oslo (Norway); Dachs, Jordi [Department of Environmental Chemistry, Institute of Chemical and Environmental Research (IIQAB-CSIC), Jordi Girona 18-26, Barcelona 08034 (Spain); Muir, Derek [Aquatic Ecosystem Protection Research Division, Environment Canada, 867 Lakeshore Road, Burlington, ON L7R4A6 (Canada)

    2007-11-15

    For legacy and emerging persistent organic pollutants (POPs), surprisingly little is still known in quantitative terms about their global sources and emissions. Atmospheric transport has been identified as the key global dispersal mechanism for most legacy POPs. In contrast, transport by ocean currents may prove to be the main transport route for many polar, emerging POPs. This is linked to the POPs' intrinsic physico-chemical properties, as exemplified by the different fate of hexachlorocyclohexanes in the Arctic. Similarly, our current understanding of POPs' global transport and fate remains sketchy. The importance of organic carbon and global temperature differences have been accepted as key drivers of POPs' global distribution. However, future research will need to understand the various biogeochemical and geophysical cycles under anthropogenic pressures to be able to understand and predict the global fate of POPs accurately. - Future studies into the global fate of POPs will need to pay more attention to the various biogeochemical and anthropogenic cycles to better understand emissions, transport and sinks.

  14. Global analysis of the protection status of the world's forests

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmitt, Christine B.; Burgess, Neil David; Coad, Lauren

    2009-01-01

    This study presents a global analysis of forest cover and forest protection. An updated Global Forest Map (using MODIS2005) provided a current assessment of forest cover within 20 natural forest types. This map was overlaid onto WWF realms and ecoregions to gain additional biogeographic information...... on forest distribution. Using the 2008 World Database on Protected Areas, percentage forest cover protection was calculated globally, within forest types, realms and ecoregions, and within selected areas of global conservation importance. At the 10% tree cover threshold, global forest cover was 39 million...... km2. Of this, 7.7% fell within protected areas under IUCN management categories I-IV. With the inclusion of IUCN categories V and VI, the level of global forest protection increased to 13.5%. Percentage forest protection (IUCN I-IV) varied greatly between realms from 5.5% (Palearctic) to 13...

  15. Studies of global warming and global energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inaba, Atsushi

    1993-01-01

    Global warming caused by increase in atmospheric CO 2 concentration has been the focus of many recent global energy studies. CO 2 is emitted to the atmosphere mainly from the combustion of fossil fuels. This means that global warming is fundamentally a problem of the global energy system. An analysis of the findings of recent global energy studies is made in this report. The results are categorized from the viewpoint of concern about global warming. The analysis includes energy use and CO 2 emissions, measures taken to restrain CO 2 emissions and the cost of such measure, and suggestions for long term global energy generation. Following this comparative analysis, each of the studies is reviewed in detail. (author) 63 refs

  16. Response of Land Use Planning in Less Developed Areas to Economic Globalization

    OpenAIRE

    Liu, Xiang-nan

    2012-01-01

    Under the background of economic globalization, the development mechanisms of various regions faces potential deep transformation, and the effective participation of less developed areas in China in economic globalization is of great significance to the sustainable development of Chinese economy and society. In this study, we summarized the characteristics and influences of economic globalization from the aspects of industrial recombination and transfer, competition, economic relevance and de...

  17. ASSESSING GLOBAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY UNDER COLDEST AND WARMEST PERIODS AT DIFFERENT LATITUDINAL REGIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eleonora Runtunuwu

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Effect of climate change on water balance will play a key role in the biosphere system. To study the global climate change impact on water balance during 95-year period (1901-1995, long-term grid climatic data including global mean monthly temperature and precipitation at 0.5 x 0.5 degree resolution were analysed. The trend and variation of climate change, the time series of monthly air temperature and precipitation data were aggregated into annual arithmetic means for two extreme periods (1901-1920 and 1990-1995. The potential evapotranspiration (Eo was calculated using Thornthwaite method.The changes in mean annual value were obtained by subtracting the maximum period data from 1990 to 1995 (Max with the minimum period data from 1901 to 1920 (Min. The results revealed that over 95-year period, mean global air temperature increased by 0.57oC. The temperature increase varied greatly in Asia, with more than 3.0oC, especially at 45-70oN, as well over the northern part of America (60-65oN and Europe (55- 75oN. In low latitude across Asia, Africa, and South America, the variation was less than 1.5oC. In 80-85ºN region, the variation was relatively small and at higher latitudes it increasedsignificantly. Precipitation varied temporally and spatially. In the 40-45ºN and 40-45ºS regions, increasing precipitation of more than 100 mm occurred during the June-August andSeptember-November, especially in the northern hemisphere. The Eo increase of 2000 mm during 95 years occurred in the tropical northern America, middle Africa, and South-East Asia. A grid in Central Java of Indonesia showed that the Eo increase of 2500 mm during 95 years resulted in the decrease of growing period by 100 days. In coping with climate change, adjustment of cropping calendar is imperative.

  18. Very small glaciers under climate change: from the local to the global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huss, M.; Fischer, M.

    2015-12-01

    Very small glaciers (climate archive. Very small glaciers have generally shorter response times than valley glaciers and their mass balance is strongly dependent on snow redistribution processes. Worldwide glacier monitoring has focused on medium-sized to large glaciers leaving us with a relatively limited understanding of the behavior of very small glaciers. With warming climate there is an increasing concern that very small glaciers might be the first to disappear. Already in the next decades this might result in the complete deglaciation of mountain ranges with glacier equilibrium lines close to the highest peaks, such as in the Rocky Mountains, the European Alps, the Andes or parts of High Mountain Asia. In this contribution, we present a comprehensive modelling framework to assess past and future changes in very small glaciers at the mountain-range scale. Among other processes our model accounts for snow redistribution, changes in glacier geometry and dynamic changes in debris-coverage, and computes e.g. distributed mass balance, englacial temperature and proglacial runoff. Detailed glacier projections until 2060 are shown for the Swiss Alps based on new data sets, and the 21st century contribution of all very small glaciers worldwide to sea-level rise is quantified using a global model. Grid-based modelling of surface mass balance and retreat for 1133 very small glaciers in Switzerland indicates that 70% of them will completely vanish within the next 25 years. However, a few avalanche-fed glaciers at low elevation might be able to survive even substantial atmospheric warming. We find relatively high static and dynamic sensitivities for gently-sloping glaciers. At the global scale, glaciers presently smaller than 1 km2 make up for only 0.7% of total ice volume but account for 6.7% of sea-level rise contribution during the period 2015-2025. This indicates that very small glaciers are a non-negligible component of global glacier change, at least in the near

  19. THE EFFECTS OF GLOBALIZATION IN NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clementina IVAN-UNGUREANU

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available In the OECD Handbook on Economic Globalization, the term “globalization” is used to describe” the increasing internationalization of financial markets and of markets for goods and services. Globalization refers above all to a dynamic and multidimensional process of economic integration whereby national resources become more and more internationally mobile while national economies become increasingly interdependent.”Understanding globalization requires theory as well as facts, but certainly the facts are key ingredients in any assessment of this important phenomenon. Indeed, the facts are necessary to test the theories and to quantify the importance of what the theories predict.New concepts are emerging as economists address the issues of globalization and they need to be better defined and measured. In particular, there is a need for standard concepts and definitions in the area of globalization and its effects. Work under way internationally on SNA 93 rev 1 should help considerably in this regard. There is a pressing need for greater coordination and cooperation in this domain. This paper, presents some of the issues involved in measurement of the indicators of globalization and in using those indicators to quantify and describe the phenomenon and to evaluate its economic impact.

  20. Romanian Insurance Market Facing Globalization Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dumitru G. Badea

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available The Romanian insurance market has passed through a permanent process of growth which ended up in 2004 to exceed the threshold of 1 billion Euros, in the frame of a small awareness and confidence of the population towards insurance, even now after 15 years. The globalization process of the financial markets affected also the Romanian market even before Romania became member of the European Union. The globalization brought about benefits (especially under the form of increase in the quality of the services provided to clients but also disadvantages for local companies (significant costs in logistics and training in order to cope with the international groups.

  1. Global existence for Volterra-Fredholm type neutral impulsive functional integrodifferential equations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Vijayakumar

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available n this paper, we study the global existence of solutions for the initial value problems for Volterra-Fredholm type neutral impulsive functional integrodifferential equations. Using the Leray-Schauder's Alternative theorem, we derive conditions under which a solution exists globally. An application is provided to illustrate the theory.

  2. Economic stagnation in the United States: underlying causes and global consequences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert A. Blecker

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyzes the causes of the slow recovery of the US economy since the financial crisis and Great Recession of 2008-9. Fallen house values and excessive household debts continue to depress consumer spending, while corporations are failing to invest in spite of record profits. The increasingly unequal distribution of income limits demand, while long-term structural transformations continue to erode employment creation. An expansionary monetary policy has been incapable of sparking a more robust recovery and fiscal policy has been shifted to an austerity stance. In this context, Brazil and other emerging market nations cannot count on the United States to continue to be the leading source of global demand as it was in previous decades.

  3. Health promotion in globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Álvaro Franco-Giraldo

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Objective: to unravel some theoretical and factual elements required to implement more effective health promotion strategies and practices in the field of health services whilst following the great challenges that globalization has imposed on the health systems, which are inevitably expressed in the local context (glocalization. Methodology: a narrative review taking into account the concepts of globalization and health promotion in relation to health determinants. The authors approach some courses of action and strategies for health promotion based on the social principles and universal values that guide health promotion, health service reorientation and primary healthcare, empowerment, social participation, and inter-sectoral and social mobilization. Discussion: the discussion focuses on the redirection of health promotion services in relation to the wave of health reforms that has spread throughout the world under the neoliberal rule. The author also discusses health promotion, its ineffectiveness, and the quest for renewal. Likewise, the author sets priorities for health promotion in relation to social determinants. Conclusion: the current global order, in terms of international relations, is not consistent with the ethical principles of health promotion. In this paper, the author advocates for the implementation of actions to change the social and physical life conditions of people based on changes in the use of power in society and the appropriate practice of politics in the context of globalization in order to achieve the effectiveness of the actions of health promotion.

  4. Mediterranean Agricultural Soil Conservation under global Change: The MASCC project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raclot, Damien; Ciampalini, Rossano

    2017-04-01

    The MASCC project (2016-2019, http://mascc-project.org) aims to address mitigation and adaptation strategies to global change by assessing current and future development of Mediterranean agricultural soil vulnerability to erosion in relation to projected land use, agricultural practices and climate change. It targets to i) assess the similarities/dissimilarities in dominant factors affecting the current Mediterranean agricultural soil vulnerability by exploring a wide range of Mediterranean contexts; ii) improve the ability to evaluate the impact of extreme events on both the current and projected agricultural soil vulnerability and the sediment delivery at catchment outlet; iii) evaluate the vulnerability and resilience of agricultural production to a combination of potential changes in a wide range of Mediterranean contexts, iv) and provide guidelines on sustainable agricultural conservation strategies adapted to each specific agro-ecosystem and taking into consideration both on- and off-site erosion effects and socio-economics issues. To achieve these objectives, the MASCC project consortium gather researchers from six Mediterranean countries (France, Morocco, Tunisia, Italy, Spain and Portugal) which monitor mid- to long-term environmental catchments and benefit from mutual knowledge created from previous projects and network. The major assets for MASCC are: i) the availability of an unrivalled database on catchment soil erosion and innovative agricultural practices comprising a wide range of Mediterranean contexts, ii) the capacity to better evaluate the impact of extreme events on soil erosion, iii) the expert knowledge of the LANDSOIL model, a catchment-scale integrated approach of the soil-landscape system that enables to simulate both the sediment fluxes at the catchment outlet and the intra-catchment soil evolving properties and iv) the multi-disciplinarity of the involved researchers with an international reputation in the fields of soil science

  5. Eurasia: The Rivalry of Global Integration Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olesia Kobenko

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The article reveals the Eurasian integration projects as major drivers of world globalization. Eurasian regionalism seems to be gaining attention in the scientific literature. Under the current political circumstance many regions are accelerating integration and many countries are opting for regional associations as a mechanism to help them overcome the global recession. Moreover, the global political leaders , some developed countries - the U.S., China, and the European Union (EU are interested to set up regional economic blocs such as Eurasian Economic Union (The EEU, the China's project 'One Belt One Road', the U.S's projects - The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP and The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP. The goal of this paper is to introduce a number of integration initiatives and to analyze the current strategies of Eurasian regionalism.

  6. Contents of Global Talent Evaluations: Baltics & Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antanas Buracas

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The study discuss the reliability of global talent competitiveness (GTC as framework of deter- minants based on multiple criteria assessment method- ology presenting the comparisons of Baltic States and Serbia as a case study. The multiple criteria evaluation principles are focused on the knowledge components interdependencies with global talent determinants as well as other criterial systems used for the innovation strategies. The approach in a research under review and de- tailing of GTC criterial system when evaluating the talent potential determinants revealed some benefits of multicriteria decision making analysis. The GTC index is a useful instrument for rational global talent management when using the EU structural funds, in- tersectorial distributing of limited resources for more rational development of labour & vocational skills, for evaluating the innovation and talent growth determi- nants.

  7. Impact of Global Warming on Flora and Fauna

    OpenAIRE

    , A. Srivastava; , S. Srivastav

    2011-01-01

    The paper, illustrated with graphs, discusses the impact of global warming on şora & fauna, its underlying causes, and attempts to trim down it with the collaboration of all individuals. The paper relates that, as an outcome of global warming, climate changes have reached anomalous levels with rainfall and hurricanes of unusual intensity. Everyday gases such as carbon dioxide are released to warm the earth, allowing it to be a place that can be inhabited by şora & fauna. Howev...

  8. Solidarity and Recognition: Geographies of Counter-globalism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James Goodman

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available Globalism is a contested concept, but perhaps best understood as a spatial strategy, which disempowers those unable to transcend the fixity of place and social context. Under globalism fluidity becomes a key source of power, enabling the powerful to liquefy assets, to disembed, and thereby displace, political, social or ecological impacts. The infrastructures of globalism enable the disembodied extension of power across territory, to the extent that one model, universally applicable for all societies, is positioned as supreme. The only possible challenge to globalism perhaps, is through a similarly disembedded counter-movement, that mirrors the global reach and power of mainstream globalism. The praxis of counter-globalist movements suggests a different tendency, one that centres on the assertion of particularity against universality. Expressed in the legitimacy of ‘many worlds’ against ‘one world’ globalism, such resistance centres on exposing the material effects and foregrounding concrete and material experiences of globalism. Movements mobilise against the disembodied logic of globalism on the basis of co-presence and inter-subjectivity, and are embedded in relational concepts of selfhood. They are often intensely embodied and are radically emplaced through militant localism and trans-local dialogue. Counter-globalism thus does not seek to defeat geography; rather it embraces it, as the starting-point of mobilisation. The starting point of this article is thus to analyse globalism as a spatial strategy, a strategy of displacement grounded in material power. Globalism thus signifies the capacity to exploit and dominate at distance, from the sanctity of corporate boardrooms, military briefings and media cutting rooms. The claim is to universal market, military and normative power, but the impact is of extended and deepened division. Centres of power appear more as islands, or enclaves, defined against the backwash effects of counter-globalism

  9. Projection of actual evapotranspiration using the COSMO-CLM regional climate model under global warming scenarios of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C in the Tarim River basin, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Buda; Jian, Dongnan; Li, Xiucang; Wang, Yanjun; Wang, Anqian; Wen, Shanshan; Tao, Hui; Hartmann, Heike

    2017-11-01

    Actual evapotranspiration (ETa) is an important component of the water cycle. The goals for limiting global warming to below 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels and aspiring to 1.5 °C were negotiated in the Paris Agreement in 2015. In this study, outputs from the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM) for the Tarim River basin (TRB) were used to calculate ETa with an advection-aridity model, and changes in ETa under global warming scenarios of 1.5 °C (2020 to 2039) and 2.0 °C (2040 to 2059) were analyzed. Comparison of warming at the global and regional scale showed that regional 1.5 °C warming would occur later than the global average, while regional 2.0 °C warming would occur earlier than the global average. For global warming of 1.5 °C, the average ETa in the TRB is about 222.7 mm annually, which represents an increase of 6.9 mm relative to the reference period (1986-2005), with obvious increases projected for spring and summer. The greatest increases in ETa were projected for the northeast and southwest. The increment in the annual ETa across the TRB considering a warming of 1.5 °C was 4.3 mm less than that for a warming of 2.0 °C, and the reduction between the two levels of warming was most pronounced in the summer, when ETa was 3.4 mm smaller. The reduction in the increment of annual ETa for warming of 1.5 °C relative to warming of 2.0 °C was most pronounced in the southwest and northeast, where it was projected to be 8.2 mm and 9.3 mm smaller, respectively. It is suggested that the higher ETa under a warming of 2.0 °C mainly results from an increase in the sunshine duration (net radiation) in the southwestern basin and an increase in precipitation in the northeastern basin. Vapor is removed from the limited surface water supplies by ETa. The results of this study are therefore particularly relevant for water resource planning in the TRB.

  10. Future habitat suitability for coral reef ecosystems under global warming and ocean acidification

    OpenAIRE

    Couce, Elena M; Ridgwell, Andy J; Hendy, Erica

    2013-01-01

    Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations are placing spatially divergent stresses on the world’s tropical coral reefs through increasing ocean surface temperatures and ocean acidification. We show how these two stressors combine to alter the global habitat suitability for shallow coral reef ecosystems, using statistical Bioclimatic Envelope Models rather than basing projections on any a priori assumptions of physiological tolerances or fixed thresholds. We apply two different modeling approaches...

  11. Predicting the variation in Echinogammarus marinus at its southernmost limits under global warming scenarios: can the sex-ratio make a difference?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guerra, Alexandra; Leite, Nuno; Marques, João Carlos; Ford, Alex T; Martins, Irene

    2014-01-01

    Understanding the environmental parameters that constrain the distribution of a species at its latitudinal extremes is critical for predicting how ecosystems react to climate change. Our first aim was to predict the variation in the amphipod populations of Echinogammarus marinus from the southernmost limit of its distribution under global warming scenarios. Our second aim was to test whether sex-ratio fluctuations - a mechanism frequently displayed by amphipods - respond to the variations in populations under altered climate conditions. To achieve these aims, scenarios were run with a validated model of E. marinus populations. Simulations were divided into: phase I - simulation of the effect of climate change on amphipod populations, and phase II - simulation of the effect of climate change on populations with male and female proportions. In both phases, temperature (T), salinity (S) and temperature and salinity (T-S) were tested. Results showed that E. marinus populations are highly sensitive to increases in temperature (>2 °C), which has adverse effects on amphipod recruitment and growth. Results from the climate change scenarios coupled with the sex-ratio fluctuations depended largely on the degree of female bias within population. Temperature increase of 2 °C had less impact on female-biased populations, particularly when conjugated with increases in salinity. Male-biased populations were highly sensitive to any variation in temperature and/or salinity; these populations exhibited a long-term decline in density. Simulations in which temperature increased more than 4 °C led to a continuous decline in the E. marinus population. According to this work, E. marinus populations at their southernmost limit are vulnerable to global warming. We anticipate that in Europe, temperature increases of 2 °C will incite a withdrawal of the population of 5°N from the amphipod species located at southernmost geographical borders. This effect is discussed in relation to the

  12. Radar for Measuring Soil Moisture Under Vegetation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moghaddam, Mahta; Moller, Delwyn; Rodriguez, Ernesto; Rahmat-Samii, Yahya

    2004-01-01

    A two-frequency, polarimetric, spaceborne synthetic-aperture radar (SAR) system has been proposed for measuring the moisture content of soil as a function of depth, even in the presence of overlying vegetation. These measurements are needed because data on soil moisture under vegetation canopies are not available now and are necessary for completing mathematical models of global energy and water balance with major implications for global variations in weather and climate.

  13. Global-local visual biases correspond with visual-spatial orientation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basso, Michael R; Lowery, Natasha

    2004-02-01

    Within the past decade, numerous investigations have demonstrated reliable associations of global-local visual processing biases with right and left hemisphere function, respectively (cf. Van Kleeck, 1989). Yet the relevance of these biases to other cognitive functions is not well understood. Towards this end, the present research examined the relationship between global-local visual biases and perception of visual-spatial orientation. Twenty-six women and 23 men completed a global-local judgment task (Kimchi and Palmer, 1982) and the Judgment of Line Orientation Test (JLO; Benton, Sivan, Hamsher, Varney, and Spreen, 1994), a measure of visual-spatial orientation. As expected, men had better performance on JLO. Extending previous findings, global biases were related to better visual-spatial acuity on JLO. The findings suggest that global-local biases and visual-spatial orientation may share underlying cerebral mechanisms. Implications of these findings for other visually mediated cognitive outcomes are discussed.

  14. Global reverse supply chain design for solid waste recycling under uncertainties and carbon emission constraint.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Zhitao; Elomri, Adel; Pokharel, Shaligram; Zhang, Qin; Ming, X G; Liu, Wenjie

    2017-06-01

    The emergence of concerns over environmental protection, resource conservation as well as the development of logistics operations and manufacturing technology has led several countries to implement formal collection and recycling systems of solid waste. Such recycling system has the benefits of reducing environmental pollution, boosting the economy by creating new jobs, and generating income from trading the recyclable materials. This leads to the formation of a global reverse supply chain (GRSC) of solid waste. In this paper, we investigate the design of such a GRSC with a special emphasis on three aspects; (1) uncertainty of waste collection levels, (2) associated carbon emissions, and (3) challenges posed by the supply chain's global aspect, particularly the maritime transportation costs and currency exchange rates. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first attempt to integrate the three above-mentioned important aspects in the design of a GRSC. We have used mixed integer-linear programming method along with robust optimization to develop the model which is validated using a sample case study of e-waste management. Our results show that using a robust model by taking the complex interactions characterizing global reverse supply chain networks into account, we can create a better GRSC. The effect of uncertainties and carbon constraints on decisions to reduce costs and emissions are also shown. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Globalization challenges in a globalized world

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dr.Sc. Gjon Boriçi

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Globalization is an ongoing phenomenon trying to redefine the economic, social, cultural and political dynamics of contemporary societies. The communication among countries and not only them, has been increased expanding political ties, making possible greater economic integration and wider cultural relations combined with augmented global wealth across the world. But, the process of globalization is in wider terms considered a beneficial one, but also viewed by some countries as a menace to national sovereignty and national culture. This paper tries to explain the obstacles to the process of globalization and its attendant benefits. Although globalization has arisen as a result of a more stable world, the factors that had contributed to its rise also help the factions interested to bring destabilization. In an academic approach in this article, between the research and comparative methods, I have been trying to get the maxims between economy, politics and diplomacy in their efforts of affecting the global era.

  16. Hydro-economic modeling of water scarcity under global change: an application to the Gállego river basin (Spain)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Graveline, N.; Majone, B.; van Duinen, Rianne; Ansink, E.

    2014-01-01

    Integrated approaches are needed to assess the effects of global changes on the future state of water resources at regional scales. We develop a hydro-economic model of the Gállego catchment, Spain, to assess how global change and policy options affect the catchment’s water scarcity and the economic

  17. Australia's Unprecedented Future Temperature Extremes Under Paris Limits to Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Sophie C.; King, Andrew D.; Mitchell, Daniel M.

    2017-10-01

    Record-breaking temperatures can detrimentally impact ecosystems, infrastructure, and human health. Previous studies show that climate change has influenced some observed extremes, which are expected to become more frequent under enhanced future warming. Understanding the magnitude, as a well as frequency, of such future extremes is critical for limiting detrimental impacts. We focus on temperature changes in Australian regions, including over a major coral reef-building area, and assess the potential magnitude of future extreme temperatures under Paris Agreement global warming targets (1.5°C and 2°C). Under these limits to global mean warming, we determine a set of projected high-magnitude unprecedented Australian temperature extremes. These include extremes unexpected based on observational temperatures, including current record-breaking events. For example, while the difference in global-average warming during the hottest Australian summer and the 2°C Paris target is 1.1°C, extremes of 2.4°C above the observed summer record are simulated. This example represents a more than doubling of the magnitude of extremes, compared with global mean change, and such temperatures are unexpected based on the observed record alone. Projected extremes do not necessarily scale linearly with mean global warming, and this effect demonstrates the significant potential benefits of limiting warming to 1.5°C, compared to 2°C or warmer.

  18. Mortality changes after grants from the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria: an econometric analysis from 1995 to 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Isabel; Korenromp, Eline; Bendavid, Eran

    2015-09-28

    Since its founding in 2002, the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria (Global Fund) has become the dominant multilateral health financier in low- and middle-income countries. The health impact of the Global Fund remains unknown because existing evaluations measure intermediate outcomes or do not account for preexisting and counterfactual trends. We conducted an econometric analysis of data from all countries eligible to receive Global Fund grants from 1995 to 2010, prior to and during the Global Fund's activities. We analyzed three outcomes: all-cause adult (15-59 years), all-cause under-five, and malaria-specific under-five mortality. Our main exposure was a continuous longitudinal measure of Global Fund disbursements per capita. We used panel fixed effect regressions, and analyzed mortality trends controlling for health spending, health worker density (a measure of health system capacity), gross domestic product, urbanization, and country fixed-effects. We find that following Global Fund disbursements, adult mortality rate declined by 1.4 % per year faster with every $10 per capita increase in disbursements (p = 0.005). Similarly, malaria-specific under-five mortality declined by 6.9 % per year faster (p = 0.033) with every $10 high per capita Global Fund disbursements. However, we find no association between Global Fund support and all-cause under-five mortality. These findings were consistent after subanalyses by baseline HIV prevalence, adjusting for effects of concurrent health aid from other donors, and varying time lags between funding and mortality changes. Grants from the Global Fund are closely related to accelerated reductions in all-cause adult mortality and malaria-specific under-five mortality. However, up to 2010 the Global Fund has not measurably contributed to reducing all-cause under-five mortality.

  19. Title: Freshwater phytoplankton responses to global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, Heiko; Fanesi, Andrea; Wilhelm, Christian

    2016-09-20

    Global warming alters species composition and function of freshwater ecosystems. However, the impact of temperature on primary productivity is not sufficiently understood and water quality models need to be improved in order to assess the quantitative and qualitative changes of aquatic communities. On the basis of experimental data, we demonstrate that the commonly used photosynthetic and water chemistry parameters alone are not sufficient for modeling phytoplankton growth under changing temperature regimes. We present some new aspects of the acclimation process with respect to temperature and how contrasting responses may be explained by a more complete physiological knowledge of the energy flow from photons to new biomass. We further suggest including additional bio-markers/traits for algal growth such as carbon allocation patterns to increase the explanatory power of such models. Although carbon allocation patterns are promising and functional cellular traits for growth prediction under different nutrient and light conditions, their predictive power still waits to be tested with respect to temperature. A great challenge for the near future will be the prediction of primary production efficiencies under the global change scenario using a uniform model for phytoplankton assemblages. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

  20. Financial security of the state in terms of globalization processes escalation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Svitlana Tkalenko

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The article provides review of the globalization and global integration processes impact on the financial sector formation characterized by an increase in financial flows with the lead role played by transnational corporations and transnational banks. The globalization study has been already reflected by numerous scientific publications and various issues of reputable international academic journals describing the process as irreversible and objective along with demonstrating globalization merits and demerits, etc. In the 21st century, globalization is an issue discussed by everyone: ranging from presidents, prime ministers and members of parliament supposed to solve problems of any scale taking into consideration the global development phenomenon, to ordinary citizens. Today, globalization has obviously become a major trend of the modern world development, which is why issues implying sound development assurance become pressing for each country. The article dwells upon the main component of economic security — the financial one (Ukraine case study. Thus, we are engaged in studying the global development trend in terms of assuring security of the state under conditions of financial flows globalization and existence of global integration processes.

  1. Does trade liberalization increase global pollution?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beladi, Hamid; Oladi, Reza

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we consider a simple duopoly market in which a home firm and a foreign firm use labor to produce an identical product and supply it to the home market. Firms emit pollution as a by-product of production. We show conditions under which international trade liberalization decreases (increases) the global pollution. (author)

  2. Two faces of global open society

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cvetićanin Neven

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The Essay considers 'the rule' of the so called post-civil political centre that corresponds to the familiar concept of open society, questioning the good as well as the bad sides of such 'rule'. The research is in the first place about global open society stability and attention is addressed to its present enemies - from terrorism, over organized crime, all the way to the so called local legitimates that are confronting the universal and global legitimates represented by the followers of the open society from the post civil political centre area. The Essay presents the debate with Fukuyama's thesis about the 'end of history' considering that open society, i.e. global post civil political centre has visible enemies who do not allow for dialectics of history to stand still as Fukuyama believed. Instead of Fukuyama's 'end of history' the Essay comes to the conclusion that present global situation is marked by post-modern opposition of liberal-democratic post civil centre and extreme anti civil margins, with reference to the opposition of open society and its enemies, which will put under limits further steps of history towards new socio-historical forms.

  3. The Influence of Low-carbon Economy on Global Trade Pattern

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao-jing, Guo

    Since global warming has seriously endangered the living environment of human being and their health and safety, the development of low-carbon economy has become an irreversible global trend. Under the background of economic globalization, low-carbon economy will surely exert a significant impact on global trade pattern. Countries are paying more and more attention to the green trade. The emission permits trade of carbon between the developed countries and the developing countries has become more mature than ever. The carbon tariff caused by the distribution of the "big cake" will make the low-cost advantage in developing countries cease to exist, which will, in turn, affect the foreign trade, economic development, employment and people's living in developing countries. Therefore, under the background of this trend, we should perfect the relevant laws and regulations on trade and environment as soon as possible, optimize trade structure, promote greatly the development of service trade, transform thoroughly the mode of development in foreign trade, take advantage of the international carbon trading market by increasing the added value of export products resulted from technological innovation to achieve mutual benefit and win-win results and promote common development.

  4. Spring phenology at different altitudes is becoming more uniform under global warming in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lei; Huang, Jian-Guo; Ma, Qianqian; Hänninen, Heikki; Rossi, Sergio; Piao, Shilong; Bergeron, Yves

    2018-04-26

    Under current global warming, high-elevation regions are expected to experience faster warming than low-elevation regions. However, due to the lack of studies based on long-term large-scale data, the relationship between tree spring phenology and the elevation-dependent warming is unclear. Using 652k records of leaf unfolding of five temperate tree species monitored during 1951-2013 in situ in Europe, we discovered a nonlinear trend in the altitudinal sensitivity (S A , shifted days per 100 m in altitude) in spring phenology. A delayed leaf unfolding (2.7 ± 0.6 days per decade) was observed at high elevations possibly due to decreased spring forcing between 1951 and 1980. The delayed leaf unfolding at high-elevation regions was companied by a simultaneous advancing of leaf unfolding at low elevations. These divergent trends contributed to a significant increase in the S A (0.36 ± 0.07 days 100/m per decade) during 1951-1980. Since 1980, the S A started to decline with a rate of -0.32 ± 0.07 days 100/m per decade, possibly due to reduced chilling at low elevations and improved efficiency of spring forcing in advancing the leaf unfolding at high elevations, the latter being caused by increased chilling. Our results suggest that due to both different temperature changes at the different altitudes, and the different tree responses to these changes, the tree phenology has shifted at different rates leading to a more uniform phenology at different altitudes during recent decades. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Global patterns of phytoplankton dynamics in coastal ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paerl, H.; Yin, Kedong; Cloern, J.

    2011-01-01

    Scientific Committee on Ocean Research Working Group 137 Meeting; Hangzhou, China, 17-21 October 2010; Phytoplankton biomass and community structure have undergone dramatic changes in coastal ecosystems over the past several decades in response to climate variability and human disturbance. These changes have short- and long-term impacts on global carbon and nutrient cycling, food web structure and productivity, and coastal ecosystem services. There is a need to identify the underlying processes and measure the rates at which they alter coastal ecosystems on a global scale. Hence, the Scientific Committee on Ocean Research (SCOR) formed Working Group 137 (WG 137), "Global Patterns of Phytoplankton Dynamics in Coastal Ecosystems: A Comparative Analysis of Time Series Observations" (http://wg137.net/). This group evolved from a 2007 AGU-sponsored Chapman Conference entitled "Long Time-Series Observations in Coastal Ecosystems: Comparative Analyses of Phytoplankton Dynamics on Regional to Global Scales.".

  6. How agro-ecological research helps to address food security issues under new IPM and pesticide reduction policies for global crop production systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    E Birch, A Nicholas; Begg, Graham S; Squire, Geoffrey R

    2011-06-01

    Drivers behind food security and crop protection issues are discussed in relation to food losses caused by pests. Pests globally consume food estimated to feed an additional one billion people. Key drivers include rapid human population increase, climate change, loss of beneficial on-farm biodiversity, reduction in per capita cropped land, water shortages, and EU pesticide withdrawals under policies relating to 91/414 EEC. IPM (Integrated Pest Management) will be compulsory for all EU agriculture by 2014 and is also being widely adopted globally. IPM offers a 'toolbox' of complementary crop- and region-specific crop protection solutions to address these rising pressures. IPM aims for more sustainable solutions by using complementary technologies. The applied research challenge now is to reduce selection pressure on single solution strategies, by creating additive/synergistic interactions between IPM components. IPM is compatible with organic, conventional, and GM cropping systems and is flexible, allowing regional fine-tuning. It reduces pests below economic thresholds utilizing key 'ecological services', particularly biocontrol. A recent global review demonstrates that IPM can reduce pesticide use and increase yields of most of the major crops studied. Landscape scale 'ecological engineering', together with genetic improvement of new crop varieties, will enhance the durability of pest-resistant cultivars (conventional and GM). IPM will also promote compatibility with semiochemicals, biopesticides, precision pest monitoring tools, and rapid diagnostics. These combined strategies are urgently needed and are best achieved via multi-disciplinary research, including complex spatio-temporal modelling at farm and landscape scales. Integrative and synergistic use of existing and new IPM technologies will help meet future food production needs more sustainably in developed and developing countries, in an era of reduced pesticide availability. Current IPM research gaps are

  7. Global warming and extinctions of endemic species from biodiversity hotspots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malcolm, Jay R; Liu, Canran; Neilson, Ronald P; Hansen, Lara; Hannah, Lee

    2006-04-01

    Global warming is a key threat to biodiversity, but few researchers have assessed the magnitude of this threat at the global scale. We used major vegetation types (biomes) as proxies for natural habitats and, based on projected future biome distributions under doubled-CO2 climates, calculated changes in habitat areas and associated extinctions of endemic plant and vertebrate species in biodiversity hotspots. Because of numerous uncertainties in this approach, we undertook a sensitivity analysis of multiple factors that included (1) two global vegetation models, (2) different numbers of biome classes in our biome classification schemes, (3) different assumptions about whether species distributions were biome specific or not, and (4) different migration capabilities. Extinctions were calculated using both species-area and endemic-area relationships. In addition, average required migration rates were calculated for each hotspot assuming a doubled-CO2 climate in 100 years. Projected percent extinctions ranged from hotspots were the Cape Floristic Region, Caribbean, Indo-Burma, Mediterranean Basin, Southwest Australia, and Tropical Andes, where plant extinctions per hotspot sometimes exceeded 2000 species. Under the assumption that projected habitat changes were attained in 100 years, estimated global-warming-induced rates of species extinctions in tropical hotspots in some cases exceeded those due to deforestation, supporting suggestions that global warming is one of the most serious threats to the planet's biodiversity.

  8. 76 FR 2930 - International Product Change-Global Expedited Package Services-Non- Published Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-18

    ... POSTAL SERVICE International Product Change--Global Expedited Package Services-- Non- Published... request with the Postal Regulatory Commission to add Global Expedited Package Services-- Non-Published...--Non-Published Rates, to the Competitive Products List, and Notice of Filing (Under Seal) the Enabling...

  9. Anti-Globalization or Alter-Globalization? Mapping the Political Ideology of the Global Justice Movement

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. Steger, Manfred; Wilson, E.K.

    Steger, Manfred B. and Erin K. Wilson. (2012) Anti-Globalization or Alter-Globalization? Mapping the Political Ideology of the Global Justice Movement. International Studies Quarterly, doi: 10.1111/j.1468-2478.2012.00740.x?(c) 2012 International Studies Association Globalization has unsettled

  10. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models; Third year report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R. [Applied Research Corp., College Station, TX (United States)

    1994-05-01

    This report was prepared by the Applied Research Corporation (ARC), College Station, Texas, under subcontract to Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate studies task. The task supports site characterization work required for the selection of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository and is part of the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL. The work is under the overall direction of the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM), US Department of Energy Headquarters, Washington, DC. The scope of the report is to present the results of the third year`s work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain several studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals.

  11. Bilateral theta-burst TMS to influence global gestalt perception.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernd Ritzinger

    Full Text Available While early and higher visual areas along the ventral visual pathway in the inferotemporal cortex are critical for the recognition of individual objects, the neural representation of human perception of complex global visual scenes remains under debate. Stroke patients with a selective deficit in the perception of a complex global Gestalt with intact recognition of individual objects - a deficit termed simultanagnosia - greatly helped to study this question. Interestingly, simultanagnosia typically results from bilateral lesions of the temporo-parietal junction (TPJ. The present study aimed to verify the relevance of this area for human global Gestalt perception. We applied continuous theta-burst TMS either unilaterally (left or right or bilateral simultaneously over TPJ. Healthy subjects were presented with hierarchically organized visual stimuli that allowed parametrical degrading of the object at the global level. Identification of the global Gestalt was significantly modulated only for the bilateral TPJ stimulation condition. Our results strengthen the view that global Gestalt perception in the human brain involves TPJ and is co-dependent on both hemispheres.

  12. Evolution of global contribution in multi-level threshold public goods games with insurance compensation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Jinming; Tang, Lixin

    2018-01-01

    Understanding voluntary contribution in threshold public goods games has important practical implications. To improve contributions and provision frequency, free-rider problem and assurance problem should be solved. Insurance could play a significant, but largely unrecognized, role in facilitating a contribution to provision of public goods through providing insurance compensation against the losses. In this paper, we study how insurance compensation mechanism affects individuals’ decision-making under risk environments. We propose a multi-level threshold public goods game model where two kinds of public goods games (local and global) are considered. Particularly, the global public goods game involves a threshold, which is related to the safety of all the players. We theoretically probe the evolution of contributions of different levels and free-riders, and focus on the influence of the insurance on the global contribution. We explore, in both the cases, the scenarios that only global contributors could buy insurance and all the players could. It is found that with greater insurance compensation, especially under high collective risks, players are more likely to contribute globally when only global contributors are insured. On the other hand, global contribution could be promoted if a premium discount is given to global contributors when everyone buys insurance.

  13. Unconscious Local Motion Alters Global Image Speed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khuu, Sieu K.; Chung, Charles Y. L.; Lord, Stephanie; Pearson, Joel

    2014-01-01

    Accurate motion perception of self and object speed is crucial for successful interaction in the world. The context in which we make such speed judgments has a profound effect on their accuracy. Misperceptions of motion speed caused by the context can have drastic consequences in real world situations, but they also reveal much about the underlying mechanisms of motion perception. Here we show that motion signals suppressed from awareness can warp simultaneous conscious speed perception. In Experiment 1, we measured global speed discrimination thresholds using an annulus of 8 local Gabor elements. We show that physically removing local elements from the array attenuated global speed discrimination. However, removing awareness of the local elements only had a small effect on speed discrimination. That is, unconscious local motion elements contributed to global conscious speed perception. In Experiment 2 we measured the global speed of the moving Gabor patterns, when half the elements moved at different speeds. We show that global speed averaging occurred regardless of whether local elements were removed from awareness, such that the speed of invisible elements continued to be averaged together with the visible elements to determine the global speed. These data suggest that contextual motion signals outside of awareness can both boost and affect our experience of motion speed, and suggest that such pooling of motion signals occurs before the conscious extraction of the surround motion speed. PMID:25503603

  14. IMPACT OF GLOBALIZATION ON RETAILING IN CROATIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandra Mrvica MAĐARAC

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Trade is one of the leading sectors of the Croatian economy, which has undergone significant changes under the influence of globalization over the last decade. According to Central Bureau of Statistics in Croatia about 16 % of all employees work in trade business, and more than a quarter of business entities are registered in this sector. Therefore the trade has a significant share in Croatian GDP creation. Globalization is considered an important factor of economic development around the world. Through development of communication technology the world has become integrated into the "global village" and a business contact itself can be accomplished in a matter of minutes. The effects of globalization on retailing in Croatia are mostly reflected in the introduction of new retailing forms, development of e-commerce, consumer protection, the introduction of space management, changes in consumer habits and the arrival of multinational trading companies on the market of Croatia. In this way, the Croatian market has become a part of a single system. Globalization has a negative effect on trade in the Republic of Croatia too, because the domestic production and retail sales of small neighborhood stores are threatened in this way. Retailing in Croatia should make an attempt to adapt to the global trends in the world and to new changes taking into account the domestic production by the principle of comparative advantage.

  15. Global Solutions to the Coupled Chemotaxis-Fluid Equations

    KAUST Repository

    Duan, Renjun

    2010-08-10

    In this paper, we are concerned with a model arising from biology, which is a coupled system of the chemotaxis equations and the viscous incompressible fluid equations through transport and external forcing. The global existence of solutions to the Cauchy problem is investigated under certain conditions. Precisely, for the Chemotaxis-Navier-Stokes system over three space dimensions, we obtain global existence and rates of convergence on classical solutions near constant states. When the fluid motion is described by the simpler Stokes equations, we prove global existence of weak solutions in two space dimensions for cell density with finite mass, first-order spatial moment and entropy provided that the external forcing is weak or the substrate concentration is small. © Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.

  16. Left Global Hemineglect in High Autism-Spectrum Quotient Individuals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Paul Crewther

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Autism remains as a significant issue for many individuals due to the social impairment accompanying the disorder. Recent theories present potential relationships between autistic tendency and visual perceptual differences to explore differences in underlying visual pathways. These differences have been explored though the use of global and local stimuli to show difference in perception. This study compared the balance of global versus local perception between sub-groups from the normal population both high and low on the Autism Spectrum Quotient (AQ. A diamond illusion task containing rivaling global and local percepts was used to explore the effects of changing the occluder contrast and peripheral viewing upon global/local percept. An increase in global perception relative to increasing eccentricity of the stimulus from a fixation point was also seen in both groups. However, with increasing contrast of the occluding stripes both groups showed an increase in the percentage of global perception. When comparing between groups the high AQ showed a significant reduction in global perception compared to the low AQ group when the stimulus was presented in left hemifield. This difference wasn't present within right hemifield. We discuss how global perceptual hemineglect may suggest abnormal parietal function in individuals with high AQ.

  17. Theoretical model for the mechanical behavior of prestressed beams under torsion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sérgio M.R. Lopes

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In this article, a global theoretical model previously developed and validated by the authors for reinforced concrete beams under torsion is reviewed and corrected in order to predict the global behavior of beams under torsion with uniform longitudinal prestress. These corrections are based on the introduction of prestress factors and on the modification of the equilibrium equations in order to incorporate the contribution of the prestressing reinforcement. The theoretical results obtained with the new model are compared with some available results of prestressed concrete (PC beams under torsion found in the literature. The results obtained in this study validate the proposed computing procedure to predict the overall behavior of PC beams under torsion.

  18. Impaired coupling of local and global functional feedbacks underlies abnormal synchronization and negative symptoms of schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noh, Kyungchul; Shin, Kyung Soon; Shin, Dongkwan; Hwang, Jae Yeon; Kim, June Sic; Jang, Joon Hwan; Chung, Chun Kee; Kwon, Jun Soo; Cho, Kwang-Hyun

    2013-04-10

    Abnormal synchronization of brain oscillations is found to be associated with various core symptoms of schizophrenia. However, the underlying mechanism of this association remains yet to be elucidated. In this study, we found that coupled local and global feedback (CLGF) circuits in the cortical functional network are related to the abnormal synchronization and also correlated to the negative symptom of schizophrenia. Analysis of the magnetoencephalography data obtained from patients with chronic schizophrenia during rest revealed an increase in beta band synchronization and a reduction in gamma band power compared to healthy controls. Using a feedback identification method based on non-causal impulse responses, we constructed functional feedback networks and found that CLGF circuits were significantly reduced in schizophrenia. From computational analysis on the basis of the Wilson-Cowan model, we unraveled that the CLGF circuits are critically involved in the abnormal synchronization and the dynamical switching between beta and gamma bands power in schizophrenia. Moreover, we found that the abundance of CLGF circuits was negatively correlated with the development of negative symptoms of schizophrenia, suggesting that the negative symptom is closely related to the impairment of this circuit. Our study implicates that patients with schizophrenia might have the impaired coupling of inter- and intra-regional functional feedbacks and that the CLGF circuit might serve as a critical bridge between abnormal synchronization and the negative symptoms of schizophrenia.

  19. Surface ozone seasonality under global change: Influence from dry deposition and isoprene emissions at northern mid-latitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clifton, O.; Paulot, F.; Fiore, A. M.; Horowitz, L. W.; Malyshev, S.; Shevliakova, E.; Correa, G. J. P.; Lin, M.

    2017-12-01

    Identifying the contributions of nonlinear chemistry and transport to observed surface ozone seasonal cycles over land using global models relies on an accurate representation of ozone uptake by vegetation (dry deposition). It is well established that in the absence of ozone precursor emission changes, a warming climate will increase surface ozone in polluted regions, and that a rise in temperature-dependent isoprene emissions would exacerbate this "climate penalty". However, the influence of changes in ozone dry deposition, expected to evolve with climate and land use, is often overlooked in air quality projections. With a new scheme that represents dry deposition within the NOAA GFDL dynamic vegetation land model (LM3) coupled to the NOAA GFDL atmospheric chemistry-climate model (AM3), we simulate the impact of 21st century climate and land use on ozone dry deposition and isoprene emissions. This dry deposition parameterization is a version of the Wesely scheme, but uses parameters explicitly calculated by LM3 that respond to climate and land use (e.g., stomatal conductance, canopy interception of water, leaf area index). The parameterization includes a nonstomatal deposition dependence on humidity. We evaluate climatological present-day seasonal cycles of ozone deposition velocities and abundances with those observed at northern mid-latitude sites. With a set of 2010s and 2090s decadal simulations under a high climate warming scenario (RCP8.5) and a sensitivity simulation with well-mixed greenhouse gases following RCP8.5 but air pollutants held at 2010 levels (RCP8.5_WMGG), we examine changes in surface ozone seasonal cycles. We build on our previous findings, which indicate that strong reductions in anthropogenic NOx emissions under RCP8.5 cause the surface ozone seasonal cycle over the NE USA to reverse, shifting from a summer peak at present to a winter peak by 2100. Under RCP8.5_WMGG, we parse the separate effects of climate and land use on ozone dry

  20. WHO's role in the global health system: what can be learned from global R&D debates?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moon, Suerie

    2014-02-01

    Recent global debates on the research and development (R&D) of health technologies, such as drugs, diagnostics and vaccines, can be seen as a microcosm of discussions on the role of the World Health Organization (WHO) in the global health system more broadly. The global R&D system has come under heightened scrutiny with the publication of a 2012 report by the WHO Consultative Expert Working Group on Research and Development (CEWG), which made a number of recommendations to more equitably meet global health needs. The CEWG report followed a decade-long process of debate at the WHO on the weaknesses of the global R&D system, which include problems of affordability, limited research where market returns are small or uncertain (such as the 'neglected diseases' that predominantly affect the world's poorest), inefficient overlap of research efforts, and overuse of medicines such as antibiotics. The CEWG report called on WHO Member States to develop a global framework to improve monitoring, coordination and financing of R&D efforts through the establishment of a Global Health R&D Observatory and the negotiation of a binding treaty on R&D. While the treaty option has been put on the back-burner for several years, Member States nevertheless agreed at the 2013 World Health Assembly (WHA) on concrete steps towards a global framework. Progress at the 2013 WHA reaffirmed the central role of WHO as a convener, and the WHA's decision to create the Observatory within the WHO Secretariat underscored the organization's role as a source of strategic knowledge in the global health system. However, despite WHO's constitutional mandate as the 'directing and coordinating authority on international health work', in reality it faces major challenges in coordinating autonomous R&D actors such as states, firms and foundations in the global system. Strengthening its ability to do so requires, at a minimum, reforming its financing arrangements to provide it with a greater degree of

  1. Global Citizenship and Global Universities. The Age of Global Interdependence and Cosmopolitanism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torres, Carlos Alberto

    2015-01-01

    This article focuses on the role of global universities and globalisations in an age of global interdependence and cosmopolitanism. Competing agendas that result from actions and reactions to multiple globalisations are considered in relation to global citizenship education. These agendas are crucial in understanding dilemmas of the local and the…

  2. Nonconsensual clinical trials: a foreseeable risk of offshoring under global corporatism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spielman, Bethany

    2015-03-01

    This paper explores the connection of offshoring and outsourcing to nonconsensual global pharmaceutical trials in low-income countries. After discussing reasons why the topic of nonconsensual offshored clinical trials may be overlooked in bioethics literature, I suggest that when pharmaceutical corporations offshore clinical trials today, nonconsensual experiments are often foreseeable and not simply the result of aberrant ethical conduct by a few individuals. Offshoring of clinical trials is structured so that experiments can be presented as health care in a unique form of outsourcing from the host country to pharmaceutical corporations. Bioethicists' assessments of the risks and potential benefits of offshore corporate pharmaceutical trials should therefore systematically include not only the hoped for benefits and the risks of the experimental drug but also the risk that subjects will not have consented, as well as the broader international consequences of nonconsensual experimentation.

  3. Global and regional changes of cardiopulmonary blood volume under continuous work load

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoeck, A.; Schuerch, P.; Freundlieb, C.; Vyska, K.; Kunz, N.; Feinendegen, L.E.; Hollmann, W.

    1980-01-01

    The present study describes a method for the continuous determination of global and regional stress-induced alterations of cardiopulmonary blood volumes in normals, trained athletes and patients with latent cardiac insufficiency. In contrast to normals and athletes there is an increase of the total cardiac blood volume in the cardiac patients. There are also significant differences in blood volume changes of the left lung between normals and athletes on the one hand and the cardiac patients on the other. The method is simple and non-hazardous; it permits the observation of the obviously different adaptation of the cardiopulmonary system during exercise in normals, athletes and cardiac patients. (orig.) [de

  4. ASSESSING INTERNATIONAL MARKET SEGMENTATION APPROACHES: RELATED LITERATURE AT A GLANCE AND SUGGESSTIONS FOR GLOBAL COMPANIES

    OpenAIRE

    Nacar, Ramazan; Uray, Nimet

    2015-01-01

    With the increasing role of globalization, international market segmentation has become a critical success factor for global companies, which aim for international market expansion. Despite the practice of numerous methods and bases for international market segmentation, international market segmentation is still a complex and an under-researched area. By considering all these issues, underdeveloped and under-researched international market segmentation bases such as social, cultural, psychol...

  5. A global flash flood forecasting system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baugh, Calum; Pappenberger, Florian; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Hewson, Tim; Zsoter, Ervin

    2016-04-01

    resolution appropriate to the NWP system. We then demonstrate how these warning areas could eventually complement existing global systems such as the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS), to give warnings of flash floods. This work demonstrates the possibility of creating a global flash flood forecasting system based on forecasts from existing global NWP systems. Future developments, in post-processing for example, will need to address an under-prediction bias, for extreme point rainfall, that is innate to current-generation global models.

  6. Saltation under Martian gravity and its influence on the global dust distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Musiolik, Grzegorz; Kruss, Maximilian; Demirci, Tunahan; Schrinski, Björn; Teiser, Jens; Daerden, Frank; Smith, Michael D.; Neary, Lori; Wurm, Gerhard

    2018-05-01

    Dust and sand motion are a common sight on Mars. Understanding the interaction of atmosphere and Martian soil is fundamental to describe the planet's weather, climate and surface morphology. We set up a wind tunnel to study the lift of a mixture between very fine sand and dust in a Mars simulant soil. The experiments were carried out under Martian gravity in a parabolic flight. The reduced gravity was provided by a centrifuge under external microgravity. The onset of saltation was measured for a fluid threshold shear velocity of 0.82 ± 0.04 m/s. This is considerably lower than found under Earth gravity. In addition to a reduction in weight, this low threshold can be attributed to gravity dependent cohesive forces within the sand bed, which drop by 2/3 under Martian gravity. The new threshold for saltation leads to a simulation of the annual dust cycle with a Mars GCM that is in agreement with observations.

  7. National, regional, and global sex ratios of infant, child, and under-5 mortality and identification of countries with outlying ratios: a systematic assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alkema, Leontine; Chao, Fengqing; You, Danzhen; Pedersen, Jon; Sawyer, Cheryl C

    2014-09-01

    Under natural circumstances, the sex ratio of male to female mortality up to the age of 5 years is greater than one but sex discrimination can change sex ratios. The estimation of mortality by sex and identification of countries with outlying levels is challenging because of issues with data availability and quality, and because sex ratios might vary naturally based on differences in mortality levels and associated cause of death distributions. For this systematic analysis, we estimated country-specific mortality sex ratios for infants, children aged 1-4 years, and children under the age of 5 years (under 5s) for all countries from 1990 (or the earliest year of data collection) to 2012 using a Bayesian hierarchical time series model, accounting for various data quality issues and assessing the uncertainty in sex ratios. We simultaneously estimated the global relation between sex ratios and mortality levels and constructed estimates of expected and excess female mortality rates to identify countries with outlying sex ratios. Global sex ratios in 2012 were 1·13 (90% uncertainty interval 1·12-1·15) for infants, 0·95 (0·93-0·97) for children aged 1-5 years, and 1·08 (1·07-1·09) for under 5s, an increase since 1990 of 0·01 (-0·01 to 0·02) for infants, 0·04 (0·02 to 0·06) for children aged 1-4 years, and 0·02 (0·01 to 0·04) for under 5s. Levels and trends varied across regions and countries. Sex ratios were lowest in southern Asia for 1990 and 2012 for all age groups. Highest sex ratios were seen in developed regions and the Caucasus and central Asia region. Decreasing mortality was associated with increasing sex ratios, except at very low infant mortality, where sex ratios decreased with total mortality. For 2012, we identified 15 countries with outlying under-5 sex ratios, of which ten countries had female mortality higher than expected (Afghanistan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, China, Egypt, India, Iran, Jordan, Nepal, and Pakistan). Although excess female

  8. Global health initiative investments and health systems strengthening: a content analysis of global fund investments

    OpenAIRE

    Warren, Ashley E; Wyss, Kaspar; Shakarishvili, George; Atun, Rifat; de Savigny, Don

    2013-01-01

    Background: Millions of dollars are invested annually under the umbrella of national health systems strengthening. Global health initiatives provide funding for low- and middle-income countries through disease-oriented programmes while maintaining that the interventions simultaneously strengthen systems. However, it is as yet unclear which, and to what extent, system-level interventions are being funded by these initiatives, nor is it clear how much funding they allocate to disease-specific a...

  9. Role of atmospheric heating over the South China Sea and western Pacific regions in modulating Asian summer climate under the global warming background

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Bian; Yang, Song; Li, Zhenning

    2016-05-01

    The response of monsoon precipitation to global warming, which is one of the most significant climate change signals at the earth's surface, exhibits very distinct regional features, especially over the South China Sea (SCS) and adjacent regions in boreal summer. To understand the possible atmospheric dynamics in these specific regions under the global warming background, changes in atmospheric heating and their possible influences on Asian summer climate are investigated by both observational diagnosis and numerical simulations. Results indicate that heating in the middle troposphere has intensified in the SCS and western Pacific regions in boreal summer, accompanied by increased precipitation, cloud cover, and lower-tropospheric convergence and decreased sea level pressure. Sensitivity experiments show that middle and upper tropospheric heating causes an east-west feedback pattern between SCS and western Pacific and continental South Asia, which strengthens the South Asian High in the upper troposphere and moist convergence in the lower troposphere, consequently forcing a descending motion and adiabatic warming over continental South Asia. When air-sea interaction is considered, the simulation results are overall more similar to observations, and in particular the bias of precipitation over the Indian Ocean simulated by AGCMs has been reduced. The result highlights the important role of air-sea interaction in understanding the changes in Asian climate.

  10. Globalization

    OpenAIRE

    Tulio Rosembuj

    2006-01-01

    There is no singular globalization, nor is the result of an individual agent. We could start by saying that global action has different angles and subjects who perform it are different, as well as its objectives. The global is an invisible invasion of materials and immediate effects.

  11. Hvorfor faldt de fra? Fortællinger om frafald på Global Studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Keiding, Tina Bering; Petersen, Sarah

    2015-01-01

    Rapporten formidlerresultaterne af en mindre kvalitativ undersøgelse af studerendes overvejelser og begrundelser for studieskift/-ophør på Globale Studier, Aarhus Universitet. Formålet er at få indblik i de faktorer, de studerende oplever, som afgørende for studieskift/-ophør. Rapporten er...... udarbejdet af Center for Undervisningsudvikling og Digitale Medier (CUDiM), Aarhus Universitet. Undersøgelsen er initieret af Globale Studier, som et led i en strategisk indsats for at minimere frafaldet på uddannelserne. Notatet bekræfter forskningens pointer om at frafald er et komplekst fænomen, og at den......, Sommersel, & Søgaard Larsen 2013). Specifikt i forhold til Globale Studier peger undersøgelsen på både interne og eksterne forhold. Centrale temaer i de studerendes fortællinger er: Manglende karrierefortællinger, og udfordringer i spændingsfeltet mellem beskeden sproglig progression, en stor arbejdsindsats...

  12. Lighting design for globally illuminated volume rendering.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yubo; Ma, Kwan-Liu

    2013-12-01

    With the evolution of graphics hardware, high quality global illumination becomes available for real-time volume rendering. Compared to local illumination, global illumination can produce realistic shading effects which are closer to real world scenes, and has proven useful for enhancing volume data visualization to enable better depth and shape perception. However, setting up optimal lighting could be a nontrivial task for average users. There were lighting design works for volume visualization but they did not consider global light transportation. In this paper, we present a lighting design method for volume visualization employing global illumination. The resulting system takes into account view and transfer-function dependent content of the volume data to automatically generate an optimized three-point lighting environment. Our method fully exploits the back light which is not used by previous volume visualization systems. By also including global shadow and multiple scattering, our lighting system can effectively enhance the depth and shape perception of volumetric features of interest. In addition, we propose an automatic tone mapping operator which recovers visual details from overexposed areas while maintaining sufficient contrast in the dark areas. We show that our method is effective for visualizing volume datasets with complex structures. The structural information is more clearly and correctly presented under the automatically generated light sources.

  13. Towards a global terrestrial species monitoring program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmeller, Dirk S.; Julliard, Romain; Bellingham, Peter J.; Böhm, Monika; Brummitt, Neil; Chiarucci, Alessandro; Couvet, Denis; Elmendorf, Sarah; Forsyth, David M.; Moreno, Jaime García; Gregory, Richard D.; Magnusson, William E.; Martin, Laura J.; McGeoch, Melodie A.; Mihoub, Jean-Baptiste; Pereira, Henrique M.; Proença, Vânia; van Swaay, Chris A.M.; Yahara, Tetsukazu; Belnap, Jayne

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: The Convention for Biological Diversity’s (CBD) Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011-2020 envisions that “By 2050, biodiversity is valued, conserved, restored and wisely used, maintaining ecosystem services, sustaining a healthy planet and delivering benefits essential for all people.” Although 193 parties have adopted these goals, there is little infrastructure in place to monitor global biodiversity trends. Recent international conservation policy requires such data to be up-to-date, reliable, comparable among sites, relevant, and understandable; as is becoming obvious from the work plan adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES: www.ipbes.net/; http://tinyurl.com/ohdnknq). In order to meet the five strategic goals of the Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011-2020 and its 20 accompanying Aichi Targets for 2020 (www.cbd.int/sp/targets/), advances need to be made in coordinating large-scale biodiversity monitoring and linking these with environmental data to develop a comprehensive Global Observation Network, as is the main idea behind GEOSS the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (Christian 2005)...Here we identify ten requirements important for the successful implementation of a global biodiversity monitoring network under the flag of GEO BON and especially a global terrestrial species monitoring program.

  14. Global Awareness in the Classroom: Global Classroom Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Education Canada, 2004

    2004-01-01

    As countries around the world move toward global integration, knowledge of how Canada interrelates globally is becoming an increasingly useful asset. It is important that young Canadians learn what it means to become responsible global citizens. Awareness about global issues and appreciation of Canada's efforts in international development offer a…

  15. A global dataset of sub-daily rainfall indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fowler, H. J.; Lewis, E.; Blenkinsop, S.; Guerreiro, S.; Li, X.; Barbero, R.; Chan, S.; Lenderink, G.; Westra, S.

    2017-12-01

    It is still uncertain how hydrological extremes will change with global warming as we do not fully understand the processes that cause extreme precipitation under current climate variability. The INTENSE project is using a novel and fully-integrated data-modelling approach to provide a step-change in our understanding of the nature and drivers of global precipitation extremes and change on societally relevant timescales, leading to improved high-resolution climate model representation of extreme rainfall processes. The INTENSE project is in conjunction with the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)'s Grand Challenge on 'Understanding and Predicting Weather and Climate Extremes' and the Global Water and Energy Exchanges Project (GEWEX) Science questions. A new global sub-daily precipitation dataset has been constructed (data collection is ongoing). Metadata for each station has been calculated, detailing record lengths, missing data, station locations. A set of global hydroclimatic indices have been produced based upon stakeholder recommendations including indices that describe maximum rainfall totals and timing, the intensity, duration and frequency of storms, frequency of storms above specific thresholds and information about the diurnal cycle. This will provide a unique global data resource on sub-daily precipitation whose derived indices will be freely available to the wider scientific community.

  16. CORPORATE COMMUNICATION BIASES IN THE BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT UNDER GLOBALIZATION TRENDS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramona-Elena, Chiţu

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The development of the private sector, employers’ requirements of specific communication skills, the economic field division into numberless branches of activity – finance and banks, management, human resources, accounting, international relations, tourism – the presence of a certain literature in the field by means of translations, all such aspects represent grounded reasons for the existence of a global economic vocabulary in the Romanian language. Finding its origins in the structuralism philosophic principles and associated with the structuralism linguistic trends, economic language’s globalisation becomes obvious nowadays through the occurrence of a large number of linguistic borrowings. Classified into either needless or necessary borrowed lexical units, lexical units borrowed and completely or at all assimilated in the target language, such borrowings lay the foundation of what specialists in the field call corporate language. Considering that the total or partial lack of knowledge on such language can become a real barrier in achieving communication, this study aims at analysing the level to which such words are known by the employees in the business environments involved in economic international partnerships and in multinational organisations.

  17. Global revolution: a status report on renewable energy worldwide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martinot, Eric

    2005-01-01

    With at least 48 countries around the world having some type of renewable energy promotion policy, and increasingly favourable economics, renewables are seeing strong growth and increasing significance. In 2004, global investment in renewables reached US$30 billion. More than 1.7 million people are directly employed by the industry and the 180 GW of installed renewables represents 4% of global capacity. The author discusses the state of renewables in 2005, based on the Just-released 'Renewables 2005 Global Status Report' which was sponsored by the REN21 Renewable Energy Policy Network and involved over 100 collaborators, under the headings: investment trends; industry and market trends; policies to promote renewable energy. (UK)

  18. Global projections of extreme sea levels in view of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vousdoukas, M. I.; Feyen, L.; Voukouvalas, E.; Mentaschi, L.; Verlaan, M.; Jevrejeva, S.; Jackson, L. P.

    2017-12-01

    Global warming is expected to drive increasing extreme sea levels (ESLs) and flood risk along the world's coasts. The present contribution aims to present global ESL projections obtained by combining dynamic simulations of all the major ESL components during the present century, considering the latest CMIP5 projections for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Baseline values are obtained combining global re-analyses of tides, waves, and storm surges, including the effects of tropical cyclones. The global average RSLR is projected around 20 and 24 cm by the 2050s under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively and is projected to reach 46 and 67 cm by the year 2100. The largest increases in MSL are projected along the South Pacific, Australia and West Africa, while the smaller RSLR is projected around East North America, and Europe. Contributions from waves and storm surges show a very weak increasing global trend, which becomes statistically significant only towards the end of the century and under RCP8.5. However, for areas like the East China Sea, Sea of Japan, Alaska, East Bering Sea, as well as the Southern Ocean, climate extremes could increase up to 15%. By the end of this century the 100-year event ESL along the world's coastlines will on average increase by 48 cm for RCP4.5 and 75 cm for RCP8.5. The strongest rise is projected along the Southern Ocean exceeding 1 m under RCP8.5 by the end of the century. Increase exceeding 80 cm is projected for East Asia, West North America, East South America, and the North Indian Ocean. Considering always the business as usual and the year 2100, the lowest increase in ESL100 is projected along the East North America and Europe (below 50 cm). The present findings indicate that, under both RCPs, by the year 2050 the present day 100-year event will occur every 5 years along a large part of the tropics, rendering coastal zones exposed to intermittent flood hazard.

  19. Quantifying the Global Fresh Water Budget: Capabilities from Current and Future Satellite Sensors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hildebrand, Peter; Zaitchik, Benjamin

    2007-01-01

    The global water cycle is complex and its components are difficult to measure, particularly at the global scales and with the precision needed for assessing climate impacts. Recent advances in satellite observational capabilities, however, are greatly improving our knowledge of the key terms in the fresh water flux budget. Many components of the of the global water budget, e.g. precipitation, atmospheric moisture profiles, soil moisture, snow cover, sea ice are now routinely measured globally using instruments on satellites such as TRMM, AQUA, TERRA, GRACE, and ICESat, as well as on operational satellites. New techniques, many using data assimilation approaches, are providing pathways toward measuring snow water equivalent, evapotranspiration, ground water, ice mass, as well as improving the measurement quality for other components of the global water budget. This paper evaluates these current and developing satellite capabilities to observe the global fresh water budget, then looks forward to evaluate the potential for improvements that may result from future space missions as detailed by the US Decadal Survey, and operational plans. Based on these analyses, and on the goal of improved knowledge of the global fresh water budget under the effects of climate change, we suggest some priorities for the future, based on new approaches that may provide the improved measurements and the analyses needed to understand and observe the potential speed-up of the global water cycle under the effects of climate change.

  20. Globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tulio Rosembuj

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available There is no singular globalization, nor is the result of an individual agent. We could start by saying that global action has different angles and subjects who perform it are different, as well as its objectives. The global is an invisible invasion of materials and immediate effects.

  1. New Faces of Globalization: Market Integration, Production Disintegration, Genesis of New Global Organizational Structures for Production and Trade

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarmiza Pencea

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Due to trade liberalisation and ITC revolution, companies could imagine new and better ways of creating and delivering value. In search of higher efficiency, competitiveness and profits, they reorganise, choosing to focus on their core competencies and to globally outsource, or offshore non-core activities and functions. As a result, reorganisation and relocation became the new forces of change across economies, leading to the rise of new, more diverse and more efficient global organisational structures for investment, production and trade. A number of developing countries with adequate comparative advantages could better benefit from these processes, accelerating their own industralization and modernization, increasing their access to new technologies and managerial know-how and turning themselves into successful, high-rate growing, „ emerging” economies. The paper concludes that under such a global backdrop, taking part in global value chains (GVC and in international production networks (IPNs could be the best strategic option for both company strategies and governmental catch-up policies, provided that, or especially if companies enjoy high competences and tacit skills which make them capable of assuming complex tasks and of climbing further the technological ladder.

  2. Predicting changes in alluvial channel patterns in North-European Russia under conditions of global warming.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anisimov, O.; Vandenberghe, J.; Lobanov, V.; Kondratiev, A.

    2008-01-01

    Global climate change may have a noticeable impact on the northern environment, leading to changes in permafrost, vegetation and fluvial morphology. In this paper we compare the results from three geomorphological models and study the potential effects of changing climatic factors on the river

  3. Ideological Hegemony and Global Governance

    OpenAIRE

    Thomas Ford Brown

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, I analyze libertarian discourse from the perspective of regulation theory, a~ a hegemonic ideology that underlies the emergence of a new mode of regulation. Within this general theoretical approach, I will also employ frames from regime theory as developed by international relations scholars, as well as the "epistemic community" approach from the same discipline. I want to suggest that free-market ideology could engender the emergence of rationalized global governance in order ...

  4. Interspecific Hybridization in Pilot Whales and Asymmetric Genetic Introgression in Northern Globicephala melas under the Scenario of Global Warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miralles, Laura; Oremus, Marc; Silva, Mónica A; Planes, Serge; Garcia-Vazquez, Eva

    2016-01-01

    Pilot whales are two cetacean species (Globicephala melas and G. macrorhynchus) whose distributions are correlated with water temperature and partially overlap in some areas like the North Atlantic Ocean. In the context of global warming, distribution range shifts are expected to occur in species affected by temperature. Consequently, a northward displacement of the tropical pilot whale G. macrorynchus is expected, eventually leading to increased secondary contact areas and opportunities for interspecific hybridization. Here, we describe genetic evidences of recurrent hybridization between pilot whales in northeast Atlantic Ocean. Based on mitochondrial DNA sequences and microsatellite loci, asymmetric introgression of G. macrorhynchus genes into G. melas was observed. For the latter species, a significant correlation was found between historical population growth rate estimates and paleotemperature oscillations. Introgressive hybridization, current temperature increases and lower genetic variation in G. melas suggest that this species could be at risk in its northern range. Under increasing environmental and human-mediated stressors in the North Atlantic Ocean, it seems recommendable to develop a conservation program for G. melas.

  5. Global Strategy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Peter Ping

    2013-01-01

    Global strategy differs from domestic strategy in terms of content and process as well as context and structure. The content of global strategy can contain five key elements, while the process of global strategy can have six major stages. These are expounded below. Global strategy is influenced...... by rich and complementary local contexts with diverse resource pools and game rules at the national level to form a broad ecosystem at the global level. Further, global strategy dictates the interaction or balance between different entry strategies at the levels of internal and external networks....

  6. Developing an International Assessment of Global Competence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piacentini, Mario

    2017-01-01

    In 2014, an international, interdisciplinary group of experts came together under the auspices of the PISA Governing Board to consider a novel question: can an international assessment evaluate, the global competence of 15-year-old students? The experts recognized the need for data to understand how well students are prepared for life in…

  7. Useful global-change scenarios: current issues and challenges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parson, E A

    2008-01-01

    Scenarios are increasingly used to inform global-change debates, but their connection to decisions has been weak and indirect. This reflects the greater number and variety of potential users and scenario needs, relative to other decision domains where scenario use is more established. Global-change scenario needs include common elements, e.g., model-generated projections of emissions and climate change, needed by many users but in different ways and with different assumptions. For these common elements, the limited ability to engage diverse global-change users in scenario development requires extreme transparency in communicating underlying reasoning and assumptions, including probability judgments. Other scenario needs are specific to users, requiring a decentralized network of scenario and assessment organizations to disseminate and interpret common elements and add elements requiring local context or expertise. Such an approach will make global-change scenarios more useful for decisions, but not less controversial. Despite predictable attacks, scenario-based reasoning is necessary for responsible global-change decisions because decision-relevant uncertainties cannot be specified scientifically. The purpose of scenarios is not to avoid speculation, but to make the required speculation more disciplined, more anchored in relevant scientific knowledge when available, and more transparent.

  8. Projected continent-wide declines of the emperor penguin under climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jenouvrier, S.; Holland, M.; Stroeve, J.; Serreze, M.; Barbraud, C.; Weimerskirch, H.; Caswell, H.

    2014-01-01

    Climate change has been projected to affect species distribution1 and future trends of local populations2, 3, but projections of global population trends are rare. We analyse global population trends of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri), an iconic Antarctic top predator, under the influence

  9. Global climate change model natural climate variation: Paleoclimate data base, probabilities and astronomic predictors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kukla, G.; Gavin, J. [Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY (United States). Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory

    1994-05-01

    This report was prepared at the Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory of Columbia University at Palisades, New York, under subcontract to Pacific Northwest Laboratory it is a part of a larger project of global climate studies which supports site characterization work required for the selection of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository and forms part of the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL. The work under the PASS Program is currently focusing on the proposed site at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, and is under the overall direction of the Yucca Mountain Project Office US Department of Energy, Las Vegas, Nevada. The final results of the PNL project will provide input to global atmospheric models designed to test specific climate scenarios which will be used in the site specific modeling work of others. The primary purpose of the data bases compiled and of the astronomic predictive models is to aid in the estimation of the probabilities of future climate states. The results will be used by two other teams working on the global climate study under contract to PNL. They are located at and the University of Maine in Orono, Maine, and the Applied Research Corporation in College Station, Texas. This report presents the results of the third year`s work on the global climate change models and the data bases describing past climates.

  10. Forests and global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Curren, T.

    1991-04-01

    The importance of forests to Canada, both in economic and environmental terms, is indisputable. A warmer global climate may well have profound effects on the Canadian boreal forest, and at least some of the effects will not be beneficial. With the state of the current knowledge of climate processes and climate change it is not possible to predict the extent or rate of projected changes of anthropogenic origin. Given these uncertainties, the appropriate course of action for the Canadian forest sector is to develop policies and strategies which will make good sense under the current climatic regime, and which will also be appropriate for actions in a warmer climate scenario. The business as usual approach is not acceptable in the context of pollution control as it has become clear that anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and other pollutants must be substantially reduced, both to prevent (or at least slow the rate of) possible global warming, and to reduce impacts on the biophysical environment and human health. Effective mitigative actions must be introduced on both a national and global scale. Forest management policies more effectively geared to the sustainability of forests are needed. The programs that are developed out of such policies must be cognizant of the real possibility that climate in the present boreal forest regions may change in the near future. 13 refs

  11. The Analysis of the Impact of Globalization on Employment in Ukraine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gryshkin Vadym O.

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the article is analyzing the impact of globalization on employment in Ukraine and studying foreign experience in regulation of the labor market under conditions of globalization. The theoretical aspects of employment of population at the stage of market transformation of economy have been analyzed. The comprehensive analysis of the current state of employment in Ukraine has been conducted. The dynamics of the main indicators of employment of population and labor migration has been considered and analyzed. The shortcomings in the mechanism of employment regulation are revealed and measures to overcome them on the basis of the positive experience of developed countries are proposed. The necessity of adapting the foreign experience to the Ukrainian realities and the possibility of its use in the national territory is justified. The main tasks of the state policy on regulating the employment of Ukraine’s population under conditions of globalization are presented.

  12. Global Analysis of Climate Change Projection Effects on Atmospheric Rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Espinoza, Vicky; Waliser, Duane E.; Guan, Bin; Lavers, David A.; Ralph, F. Martin

    2018-05-01

    A uniform, global approach is used to quantify how atmospheric rivers (ARs) change between Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 historical simulations and future projections under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 warming scenarios. The projections indicate that while there will be 10% fewer ARs in the future, the ARs will be 25% longer, 25% wider, and exhibit stronger integrated water vapor transports (IVTs) under RCP8.5. These changes result in pronounced increases in the frequency (IVT strength) of AR conditions under RCP8.5: 50% (25%) globally, 50% (20%) in the northern midlatitudes, and 60% (20%) in the southern midlatitudes. The models exhibit systematic low biases across the midlatitudes in replicating historical AR frequency ( 10%), zonal IVT ( 15%), and meridional IVT ( 25%), with sizable intermodel differences. A more detailed examination of six regions strongly impacted by ARs suggests that the western United States, northwestern Europe, and southwestern South America exhibit considerable intermodel differences in projected changes in ARs.

  13. Monsoon variability in the Himalayas under the condition of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duan Keqin; Yao Tandong

    2003-01-01

    An ice core-drilling program was carried out at the accumulation area of Dasuopu glacier (28deg23'N, 85deg43'E, 7100 m a.s.l.) in the central Himalayas in 1997. The ice core was analyzed continuously for stable isotopes (δ 18 O), and major ions throughout the core. Cycles indicated by δ 18 O, cations were identified and counted as seasonal fluctuations as annual increment from maximum to maximum values. Reconstructed 300-year annual net accumulation (water equivalent) from the core, with a good correlation to Indian monsoon, reflects a major precipitation trend in the central Himalayas. The accumulation trend, separated from the time series, shows a strong negative correlation to Northern Hemisphere temperature. Generally, as northern hemisphere temperature increases 0.1degC, the accumulation decreases about 80 mm, reflecting monsoon rainfall in the central Himalayas has decreased over the past decades in the condition of global warming. (author)

  14. Evolution of the global virtual water trade network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalin, Carole; Konar, Megan; Hanasaki, Naota; Rinaldo, Andrea; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio

    2012-04-17

    Global freshwater resources are under increasing pressure from economic development, population growth, and climate change. The international trade of water-intensive products (e.g., agricultural commodities) or virtual water trade has been suggested as a way to save water globally. We focus on the virtual water trade network associated with international food trade built with annual trade data and annual modeled virtual water content. The evolution of this network from 1986 to 2007 is analyzed and linked to trade policies, socioeconomic circumstances, and agricultural efficiency. We find that the number of trade connections and the volume of water associated with global food trade more than doubled in 22 years. Despite this growth, constant organizational features were observed in the network. However, both regional and national virtual water trade patterns significantly changed. Indeed, Asia increased its virtual water imports by more than 170%, switching from North America to South America as its main partner, whereas North America oriented to a growing intraregional trade. A dramatic rise in China's virtual water imports is associated with its increased soy imports after a domestic policy shift in 2000. Significantly, this shift has led the global soy market to save water on a global scale, but it also relies on expanding soy production in Brazil, which contributes to deforestation in the Amazon. We find that the international food trade has led to enhanced savings in global water resources over time, indicating its growing efficiency in terms of global water use.

  15. Global Peace through the Global University System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cengiz Hakan AYDIN

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Utopia is defined in Encarta Dictionary as “an ideal and perfect place or state, where everyone lives in harmony and everything is for the best.” Developments all around the world especially in the last decade have supported the idea that global peace is nothing but just a utopian dream. However, for centuries a group of believers have always been in search of global peace via different means. This book, titled as “Global Peace through the Global University System”, can be considered as one of the artifacts of this search.Actually this book is a collection of papers presented in working conference on the Global University System (GUS hosted by the University of Tampere, Finland in 1999. The main goal of the conference was bringing international experts to share their philosophy, past and present experiences about the GUS. The conference was held by the University of Tampere because UNESCO has an agreement with the University to establish the UNESCOChair in Global e-Learning.

  16. Business as Usual: A Lack of Institutional Innovation in Global Health Governance Comment on "Global Health Governance Challenges 2016 - Are We Ready?"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Kelley

    2016-08-17

    There were once again high expectations that a major global health event - the Ebola virus outbreak of 2014-2015 - would trigger meaningfully World Health Organization (WHO) reform and strengthen global health governance (GHG). Rather than a "turning point," however, the global community has gone back to business as usual. This has occurred against a backdrop of worldwide political turmoil, characterised by a growing rejection of existing political leaders and state-centric institutions. Debates about GHG so far have given insufficient attention to the need for institutional innovation. This entails rethinking the traditional bureaucratic model of postwar intergovernmental organizations which is disconnected from the transboundary, fast-paced nature of today's globalizing world. © 2017 The Author(s); Published by Kerman University of Medical Sciences. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

  17. Effects of three global change drivers on terrestrial C:N:P stoichiometry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yue, Kai; Fornara, Dario A; Yang, Wanqin

    2017-01-01

    more common than synergistic or antagonistic interactions, (4) C:N:P stoichiometry of soil and soil microbial biomass shows high homeostasis under global change manipulations, and (5) C:N:P responses to global change are strongly affected by ecosystem type, local climate and experimental conditions......Over the last few decades there has been an increasing number of controlled-manipulative experiments to investigate how plants and soils might respond to global change. These experiments typically examined the effects of each of three global change drivers (i.e. nitrogen (N) deposition, warming...... of plants, soils and soil microbial biomass might respond to individual vs. combined effects of the three global change drivers. Our results show that (1) individual effects of N addition and elevated CO2 on C:N:P stoichiometry are stronger than warming, (2) combined effects of pairs of global change...

  18. Communicating the Science of Global Warming — the Role of Astronomers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, Jeffrey

    2018-06-01

    Global Warming is one of the most important and issues of our times, yet it is widely misunderstood among the general public (and politicians!). The American Astronomical Society has already joined many other scientific organizations in advocating for action on global warming (by supporting the AGU statement on global warming), but we as astronomers can do much more. The high public profile of astronomy gives us a unique platform — and credibility as scientists — for doing our part to educate the public about the underlying science of global warming. And while astronomers are not climate scientists, we use the same basic physics, and many aspects of global warming science come directly from astronomy, including the ways in which we measure the heat-absorbing potential of carbon dioxide and the hard evidence of greenhouse warming provided by studies of Venus. In this session, I will briefly introduce a few methods for communicating about global warming that I believe you will find effective in your own education efforts.

  19. Increased Global Interaction Across Functional Brain Modules During Cognitive Emotion Regulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandl, Felix; Mulej Bratec, Satja; Xie, Xiyao; Wohlschläger, Afra M; Riedl, Valentin; Meng, Chun; Sorg, Christian

    2017-07-13

    Cognitive emotion regulation (CER) enables humans to flexibly modulate their emotions. While local theories of CER neurobiology suggest interactions between specialized local brain circuits underlying CER, e.g., in subparts of amygdala and medial prefrontal cortices (mPFC), global theories hypothesize global interaction increases among larger functional brain modules comprising local circuits. We tested the global CER hypothesis using graph-based whole-brain network analysis of functional MRI data during aversive emotional processing with and without CER. During CER, global between-module interaction across stable functional network modules increased. Global interaction increase was particularly driven by subregions of amygdala and cuneus-nodes of highest nodal participation-that overlapped with CER-specific local activations, and by mPFC and posterior cingulate as relevant connector hubs. Results provide evidence for the global nature of human CER, complementing functional specialization of embedded local brain circuits during successful CER. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  20. Against Globalization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Philipsen, Lotte; Baggesgaard, Mads Anders

    2013-01-01

    In order to understand globalization, we need to consider what globalization is not. That is, in order to understand the mechanisms and elements that work toward globalization, we must, in a sense, read against globalization, highlighting the limitations of the concept and its inherent conflicts....... Only by employing this as a critical practice will we be analytically able to gain a dynamic understanding of the forces of globalization as they unfold today and as they have developed historically....

  1. Trends in global CO2 emissions. 2012 Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olivier, J.G.J.; Peters, J.A.H.W. [PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Den Haag (Netherlands); Janssens-Maenhout, G. [Institute for Environment and Sustainability IES, European Commission' s Joint Research Centre JRC, Ispra (Italy)

    2012-07-15

    This report discusses the results of a trend assessment of global CO2 emissions up to 2011 and updates last year's assessment. This assessment focusses on the changes in annual CO2 emissions from 2010 to 2011, and includes not only fossil fuel combustion on which the BP reports are based, but also incorporates all other relevant CO2 emissions sources including flaring of waste gas during oil production, cement clinker production and other limestone uses, feedstock and other non-energy uses of fuels, and several other small sources. After a short description of the methods used (Chapter 2), we first present a summary of recent CO2 emission trends, by region and by country, and of the underlying trend of fossil fuel use, non-fossil energy and of other CO2 sources (Chapter 3). To provide a broader context of the global trends we also assess the cumulative global CO2 emissions of the last decade, i.e. since 2000, and compare it with scientific literature that analyse global emissions in relation to the target of 2C maximum global warming in the 21st century, which was adopted in the UN climate negotiations (Chapter 4). Compared to last year's report, Annex 1 includes a more detailed and updated discussion of the uncertainty in national and global CO2 emission estimates.

  2. Trends in global CO2 emissions. 2012 Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olivier, J. G.J.; Peters, J. A.H.W. [PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Den Haag (Netherlands); Janssens-Maenhout, G. [Institute for Environment and Sustainability IES, European Commission' s Joint Research Centre JRC, Ispra (Italy)

    2012-07-15

    This report discusses the results of a trend assessment of global CO2 emissions up to 2011 and updates last year's assessment. This assessment focusses on the changes in annual CO2 emissions from 2010 to 2011, and includes not only fossil fuel combustion on which the BP reports are based, but also incorporates all other relevant CO2 emissions sources including flaring of waste gas during oil production, cement clinker production and other limestone uses, feedstock and other non-energy uses of fuels, and several other small sources. After a short description of the methods used (Chapter 2), we first present a summary of recent CO2 emission trends, by region and by country, and of the underlying trend of fossil fuel use, non-fossil energy and of other CO2 sources (Chapter 3). To provide a broader context of the global trends we also assess the cumulative global CO2 emissions of the last decade, i.e. since 2000, and compare it with scientific literature that analyse global emissions in relation to the target of 2C maximum global warming in the 21st century, which was adopted in the UN climate negotiations (Chapter 4). Compared to last year's report, Annex 1 includes a more detailed and updated discussion of the uncertainty in national and global CO2 emission estimates.

  3. The Foreseeable Harms of Trump's Global Gag Rule.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bingenheimer, Jeffrey B; Skuster, Patty

    2017-09-01

    As one of his first acts as President of the United States, Donald Trump signed an executive order reinstating a version of the global gag rule. Under this rule, US grantees are barred from receiving global health funding if they engage in abortion-related work: not only abortion services, but also abortion referrals and counseling or advocacy for the liberalization of abortion laws. Critics of the Trump global gag rule generally raise three classes of objections: (1) that the rule fails to accomplish its presumed objective of reducing the number of abortions; (2) that it negatively affects the health and well-being of individuals and populations in affected countries; and (3) that it interferes with governments' ability to meet their international obligations. In this commentary, we examine the scientific and policy bases for these criticisms. © 2017 The Population Council, Inc.

  4. Tree cover in Central Africa: determinants and sensitivity under contrasted scenarios of global change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aleman, Julie C; Blarquez, Olivier; Gourlet-Fleury, Sylvie; Bremond, Laurent; Favier, Charly

    2017-01-30

    Tree cover is a key variable for ecosystem functioning, and is widely used to study tropical ecosystems. But its determinants and their relative importance are still a matter of debate, especially because most regional and global analyses have not considered the influence of agricultural practices. More information is urgently needed regarding how human practices influence vegetation structure. Here we focused in Central Africa, a region still subjected to traditional agricultural practices with a clear vegetation gradient. Using remote sensing data and global databases, we calibrated a Random Forest model to correlatively link tree cover with climatic, edaphic, fire and agricultural practices data. We showed that annual rainfall and accumulated water deficit were the main drivers of the distribution of tree cover and vegetation classes (defined by the modes of tree cover density), but agricultural practices, especially pastoralism, were also important in determining tree cover. We simulated future tree cover with our model using different scenarios of climate and land-use (agriculture and population) changes. Our simulations suggest that tree cover may respond differently regarding the type of scenarios, but land-use change was an important driver of vegetation change even able to counterbalance the effect of climate change in Central Africa.

  5. Transcriptional Orchestration of the Global Cellular Response of a Model Pennate Diatom to Diel Light Cycling under Iron Limitation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah R Smith

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Environmental fluctuations affect distribution, growth and abundance of diatoms in nature, with iron (Fe availability playing a central role. Studies on the response of diatoms to low Fe have either utilized continuous (24 hr illumination or sampled a single time of day, missing any temporal dynamics. We profiled the physiology, metabolite composition, and global transcripts of the pennate diatom Phaeodactylum tricornutum during steady-state growth at low, intermediate, and high levels of dissolved Fe over light:dark cycles, to better understand fundamental aspects of genetic control of physiological acclimation to growth under Fe-limitation. We greatly expand the catalog of genes involved in the low Fe response, highlighting the importance of intracellular trafficking in Fe-limited diatoms. P. tricornutum exhibited transcriptomic hallmarks of slowed growth leading to prolonged periods of cell division/silica deposition, which could impact biogeochemical carbon sequestration in Fe-limited regions. Light harvesting and ribosome biogenesis transcripts were generally reduced under low Fe while transcript levels for genes putatively involved in the acquisition and recycling of Fe were increased. We also noted shifts in expression towards increased synthesis and catabolism of branched chain amino acids in P. tricornutum grown at low Fe whereas expression of genes involved in central core metabolism were relatively unaffected, indicating that essential cellular function is protected. Beyond the response of P. tricornutum to low Fe, we observed major coordinated shifts in transcript control of primary and intermediate metabolism over light:dark cycles which contribute to a new view of the significance of distinctive diatom pathways, such as mitochondrial glycolysis and the ornithine-urea cycle. This study provides new insight into transcriptional modulation of diatom physiology and metabolism across light:dark cycles in response to Fe availability

  6. Global-scale projection and its sensitivity analysis of the health burden attributable to childhood undernutrition under the latest scenario framework for climate change research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ishida, Hiroyuki; Kobayashi, Shota; Kanae, Shinjiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Masui, Toshihiko; Shin, Yonghee; Tanaka, Akemi; Honda, Yasushi

    2014-01-01

    This study assessed the health burden attributable to childhood underweight through 2050 focusing on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), by considering the latest scenarios for climate change studies (representative concentration pathways and shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs)) and conducting sensitivity analysis. A regression model for estimating DALYs attributable to childhood underweight (DAtU) was developed using the relationship between DAtU and childhood stunting. We combined a global computable general equilibrium model, a crop model, and two regression models to assess the future health burden. We found that (i) world total DAtU decreases from 2005 by 28 ∼ 63% in 2050 depending on the socioeconomic scenarios. Per capita DAtU also decreases in all regions under either scenario in 2050, but the decreases vary significantly by regions and scenarios. (ii) The impact of climate change is relatively small in the framework of this study but, on the other hand, socioeconomic conditions have a great impact on the future health burden. (iii) Parameter uncertainty of the regression models is the second largest factor on uncertainty of the result following the changes in socioeconomic condition, and uncertainty derived from the difference in global circulation models is the smallest in the framework of this study. (letters)

  7. Will open ocean oxygen stress intensify under climate change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gnanadesikan, A.; Dunne, J. P.; John, J.

    2011-07-01

    Global warming is expected to reduce oxygen solubility and vertical exchange in the ocean, changes which would be expected to result in an increase in the volume of hypoxic waters. A simulation made with a full earth system model with dynamical atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and biogeochemical cycling shows that this holds true if the condition for hypoxia is set relatively high. However, the volume of the most hypoxic waters does not increase under global warming, as these waters actually become more oxygenated. We show that the rise in oxygen is associated with a drop in ventilation time. A term-by-term analysis within the least oxygenated waters shows an increased supply of oxygen due to lateral diffusion. compensating an increase in remineralization within these highly hypoxic waters. This lateral diffusive flux is the result of an increase of ventilation along the Chilean coast, as a drying of the region under global warming opens up a region of wintertime convection in our model.

  8. Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schewe, Jacob; Heinke, Jens; Gerten, Dieter; Haddeland, Ingjerd; Arnell, Nigel W; Clark, Douglas B; Dankers, Rutger; Eisner, Stephanie; Fekete, Balázs M; Colón-González, Felipe J; Gosling, Simon N; Kim, Hyungjun; Liu, Xingcai; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Portmann, Felix T; Satoh, Yusuke; Stacke, Tobias; Tang, Qiuhong; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik; Albrecht, Torsten; Frieler, Katja; Piontek, Franziska; Warszawski, Lila; Kabat, Pavel

    2014-03-04

    Water scarcity severely impairs food security and economic prosperity in many countries today. Expected future population changes will, in many countries as well as globally, increase the pressure on available water resources. On the supply side, renewable water resources will be affected by projected changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, and other climate variables. Here we use a large ensemble of global hydrological models (GHMs) forced by five global climate models and the latest greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways) to synthesize the current knowledge about climate change impacts on water resources. We show that climate change is likely to exacerbate regional and global water scarcity considerably. In particular, the ensemble average projects that a global warming of 2 °C above present (approximately 2.7 °C above preindustrial) will confront an additional approximate 15% of the global population with a severe decrease in water resources and will increase the number of people living under absolute water scarcity (water resources, suggesting a high potential for improved water resource projections through hydrological model development.

  9. Global public health today: connecting the dots

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marta Lomazzi

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Background: Global public health today faces new challenges and is impacted by a range of actors from within and outside state boundaries. The diversity of the actors involved has created challenges and a complex environment that requires a new context-tailored global approach. The World Federation of Public Health Associations has embarked on a collaborative consultation with the World Health Organization to encourage a debate on how to adapt public health to its future role in global health. Design: A qualitative study was undertaken. High-level stakeholders from leading universities, multilateral organizations, and other institutions worldwide participated in the study. Inductive content analyses were performed. Results: Stakeholders underscored that global public health today should tackle the political, commercial, economic, social, and environmental determinants of health and social inequalities. A multisectoral and holistic approach should be guaranteed, engaging public health in broad dialogues and a concerted decision-making process. The connection between neoliberal ideology and public health reforms should be taken into account. The WHO must show leadership and play a supervising and technical role. More and better data are required across many programmatic areas of public health. Resources should be allocated in a sustainable and accountable way. Public health professionals need new skills that should be provided by a collaborative global education system. A common framework context-tailored to influence governments has been evaluated as useful. Conclusions: The study highlighted some of the main public health challenges currently under debate in the global arena, providing interesting ideas. A more inclusive integrated vision of global health in its complexity, shared and advocated for by all stakeholders involved in decision-making processes, is crucial. This vision represents the first step in innovating public health at the

  10. Global public health today: connecting the dots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lomazzi, Marta; Jenkins, Christopher; Borisch, Bettina

    2016-01-01

    Background Global public health today faces new challenges and is impacted by a range of actors from within and outside state boundaries. The diversity of the actors involved has created challenges and a complex environment that requires a new context-tailored global approach. The World Federation of Public Health Associations has embarked on a collaborative consultation with the World Health Organization to encourage a debate on how to adapt public health to its future role in global health. Design A qualitative study was undertaken. High-level stakeholders from leading universities, multilateral organizations, and other institutions worldwide participated in the study. Inductive content analyses were performed. Results Stakeholders underscored that global public health today should tackle the political, commercial, economic, social, and environmental determinants of health and social inequalities. A multisectoral and holistic approach should be guaranteed, engaging public health in broad dialogues and a concerted decision-making process. The connection between neoliberal ideology and public health reforms should be taken into account. The WHO must show leadership and play a supervising and technical role. More and better data are required across many programmatic areas of public health. Resources should be allocated in a sustainable and accountable way. Public health professionals need new skills that should be provided by a collaborative global education system. A common framework context-tailored to influence governments has been evaluated as useful. Conclusions The study highlighted some of the main public health challenges currently under debate in the global arena, providing interesting ideas. A more inclusive integrated vision of global health in its complexity, shared and advocated for by all stakeholders involved in decision-making processes, is crucial. This vision represents the first step in innovating public health at the global level and should lead

  11. Global Dynamics of Dispersal and Diversification among Passerine Birds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kennedy, Jonathan David

    Global variation in the distribution and diversity of species has been recognized by naturalists for centuries. However, despite extensive scientific study since the initial documentation of these patterns, we still lack a comprehensive explanation as to their underlying causes. Ultimately, this ...

  12. Effects of climate variability on global scale flood risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, P.; Dettinger, M. D.; Kummu, M.; Jongman, B.; Sperna Weiland, F.; Winsemius, H.

    2013-12-01

    In this contribution we demonstrate the influence of climate variability on flood risk. Globally, flooding is one of the worst natural hazards in terms of economic damages; Munich Re estimates global losses in the last decade to be in excess of $240 billion. As a result, scientifically sound estimates of flood risk at the largest scales are increasingly needed by industry (including multinational companies and the insurance industry) and policy communities. Several assessments of global scale flood risk under current and conditions have recently become available, and this year has seen the first studies assessing how flood risk may change in the future due to global change. However, the influence of climate variability on flood risk has as yet hardly been studied, despite the fact that: (a) in other fields (drought, hurricane damage, food production) this variability is as important for policy and practice as long term change; and (b) climate variability has a strong influence in peak riverflows around the world. To address this issue, this contribution illustrates the influence of ENSO-driven climate variability on flood risk, at both the globally aggregated scale and the scale of countries and large river basins. Although it exerts significant and widespread influences on flood peak discharges in many parts of the world, we show that ENSO does not have a statistically significant influence on flood risk once aggregated to global totals. At the scale of individual countries, though, strong relationships exist over large parts of the Earth's surface. For example, we find particularly strong anomalies of flood risk in El Niño or La Niña years (compared to all years) in southern Africa, parts of western Africa, Australia, parts of Central Eurasia (especially for El Niño), the western USA (especially for La Niña), and parts of South America. These findings have large implications for both decadal climate-risk projections and long-term future climate change

  13. Increased Global Functional Connectivity Correlates with LSD-Induced Ego Dissolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tagliazucchi, Enzo; Roseman, Leor; Kaelen, Mendel; Orban, Csaba; Muthukumaraswamy, Suresh D; Murphy, Kevin; Laufs, Helmut; Leech, Robert; McGonigle, John; Crossley, Nicolas; Bullmore, Edward; Williams, Tim; Bolstridge, Mark; Feilding, Amanda; Nutt, David J; Carhart-Harris, Robin

    2016-04-25

    Lysergic acid diethylamide (LSD) is a non-selective serotonin-receptor agonist that was first synthesized in 1938 and identified as (potently) psychoactive in 1943. Psychedelics have been used by indigenous cultures for millennia [1]; however, because of LSD's unique potency and the timing of its discovery (coinciding with a period of major discovery in psychopharmacology), it is generally regarded as the quintessential contemporary psychedelic [2]. LSD has profound modulatory effects on consciousness and was used extensively in psychological research and psychiatric practice in the 1950s and 1960s [3]. In spite of this, however, there have been no modern human imaging studies of its acute effects on the brain. Here we studied the effects of LSD on intrinsic functional connectivity within the human brain using fMRI. High-level association cortices (partially overlapping with the default-mode, salience, and frontoparietal attention networks) and the thalamus showed increased global connectivity under the drug. The cortical areas showing increased global connectivity overlapped significantly with a map of serotonin 2A (5-HT2A) receptor densities (the key site of action of psychedelic drugs [4]). LSD also increased global integration by inflating the level of communication between normally distinct brain networks. The increase in global connectivity observed under LSD correlated with subjective reports of "ego dissolution." The present results provide the first evidence that LSD selectively expands global connectivity in the brain, compromising the brain's modular and "rich-club" organization and, simultaneously, the perceptual boundaries between the self and the environment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. MANAGING GLOBAL OPERATIONS NETWORKS IN MOTION

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Slepniov, Dmitrij; Jørgensen, Claus; Sørensen, Brian Vejrum

    2008-01-01

    capabilities and intensified need for transfer, assimilation and augmentation of activities and know-how within the network. Based on these the paper highlights some organisational effects and managerial challenges the companies face regarding rapid changes in their networks configurations and capabilities.......Most industrial companies are, for reasons related to cost, market access or knowledge, working with some aspect of offshore operations. This may take form of captive operations or through outsourcing of activities overseas. With this trend, global operations networks are emerging resulting...... in corporate strategic repositioning, re-configurations of sites, and changes to the underlying capabilities. The paper is based on cases of 3 Danish companies and their global supply networks. These networks are not in a steady state, they evolve as a consequence of the ongoing co-evolution between the focal...

  15. The Relational Concurrence of Global Warming and Economic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    global warming and economic development focusing on the danger it inheres in ... that both developing and developed countries should sink their differences, .... with time. Other fossils exist but are still under investigation. These fossil fuels contribute greatly to human existence in the areas of. Electricity generation and ...

  16. Globalization of nuclear activities and global governance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sefidvash, Farhang

    1997-01-01

    The safe production of nuclear energy as well as the disarmament of nuclear weapons and the peaceful utilization of nuclear materials resulting from dismantling of such weapons are some of the formidable problems of global governance. The Commission on Global Governance was established in 1992 in the belief that international developments had created a unique opportunity for strengthening global co-operation to meet the challenge of securing peace, achieving sustainable development, and universalizing democracy. Here a summary of their proposals on the globalization of nuclear activities to face challenges of the coming century is given. To follow up their activities by the worlds community in general. The research Centre for Global Governance (RCGG) at the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul was established. Already a great number of researchers from many different countries have adhered to the Centre. Here the program of the RCGG is described. (author)

  17. Globalization of nuclear activities and global governance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sefidvash, Farhang [Rio Grande do Sul Univ., Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil). Dept. de Engenharia Nuclear

    1997-07-01

    The safe production of nuclear energy as well as the disarmament of nuclear weapons and the peaceful utilization of nuclear materials resulting from dismantling of such weapons are some of the formidable problems of global governance. The Commission on Global Governance was established in 1992 in the belief that international developments had created a unique opportunity for strengthening global co-operation to meet the challenge of securing peace, achieving sustainable development, and universalizing democracy. Here a summary of their proposals on the globalization of nuclear activities to face challenges of the coming century is given. To follow up their activities by the worlds community in general. The research Centre for Global Governance (RCGG) at the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul was established. Already a great number of researchers from many different countries have adhered to the Centre. Here the program of the RCGG is described. (author)

  18. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH NEWS #24: PUBLICATION OF FY2001 EDITION OF "OUR CHANGING PLANET"

    Science.gov (United States)

    The EPA Global Change Research Program is pleased to inform you of the publication of the new Our Changing Planet: The FY2001 U.S. Global Change Research Program. This annual report to the Congress was prepared under the auspices of the President's National Science and Technolog...

  19. How Global is Global Civil Society?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neera Chandhoke

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available In recent times the concept of global civil society has made its appearance on national and international intellectual, as well as political agendas, in a major way. It is of some interest that two other concepts, both of which call for transcendence of national boundaries in precisely the same way as global civil society does, have also made their appearance on the scene of intellectual debates at roughly the same time: the concept of cosmopolitanism and that of transnational justice. All three concepts have dramatically expanded the notion of commitment to one’s fellow beings beyond the nation state. And all three concepts have extended critiques of policies that violate the dignity of human beings from national governments to the practices of inter-national institutions such as the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Trade Forum. In sum the inter-related concepts of global civil society, cosmopolitanism, and transnational justice have greatly enlarged the traditional domain of political theory. And yet for any political theorist who is acutely conscious of the phenomenon of power, these concepts are not unproblematic. For the practices of global civil society may just reinforce the intellectual and the moral power of the West over the postcolonial world. This is particularly true of say global human rights organizations. This paper will attempt to raise some questions of the concept and the practices of global civil society from the perspective of the countries of the South.

  20. Globalization and deficit and limitations of global governance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stojanović Stanislav

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Character and dynamics of relationships in international politics, in which the stronger return to real politics content in the functioning of the foreign policy of the great powers, unequivocally affirms that globalization does not work to its declining power that is less credible design concept of modern world society. The global financial collapse that hit the world in 2008 is a convincing indication that most of the globalization is discredited. The belief in one humanity is becoming a less desirable concept. At the same time, with the increase in global issues that require solving, there are numerous human activities that involve unique or international regulation. The world is increasingly one homeostatic system of interdependent parts of a continent where many aspects of the borders between countries are difficult or even impossible to sustain. Hence the importance of global factors, some of which will fully depend on the articulation of individual and community life of people in the future, stressing the importance of the issue of joint management to ensure global peace and security and promote the prosperity around the world in a universally acceptable and effective way. Therefore, the demonstrated substantial shortcomings of global governance of the world, although they discourage belief in humanity, did not reduce the objective need for global access to many amenities of modern human existence. Many aspects of security, ranging from the security of the individual to the energy and environmental security in modern conditions are not conceivable without international access. However, global security management has been associated with numerous limitations and challenges.

  1. Winning the War of Ideas in the Global War on Terrorism

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Freeman, Thomas

    2004-01-01

    .... The 4-D strategic concept consists of: defeating terrorist organizations of global reach denying them sponsorship/support/sanctuary diminishing the underlying conditions for terrorism and defending U.S...

  2. Projecting pest population dynamics under global warming: the combined effect of inter- and intra-annual variations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zidon, Royi; Tsueda, Hirotsugu; Morin, Efrat; Morin, Shai

    2016-06-01

    The typical short generation length of insects makes their population dynamics highly sensitive not only to mean annual temperatures but also to their intra-annual variations. To consider the combined effect of both thermal factors under global warming, we propose a modeling framework that links general circulation models (GCMs) with a stochastic weather generator and population dynamics models to predict species population responses to inter- and intra-annual temperature changes. This framework was utilized to explore future changes in populations of Bemisia tabaci, an invasive insect pest-species that affects multiple agricultural systems in the Mediterranean region. We considered three locations representing different pest status and climatic conditions: Montpellier (France), Seville (Spain), and Beit-Jamal (Israel). We produced ensembles of local daily temperature realizations representing current and future (mid-21st century) climatic conditions under two emission scenarios for the three locations. Our simulations predicted a significant increase in the average number of annual generations and in population size, and a significant lengthening of the growing season in all three locations. A negative effect was found only in Seville for the summer season, where future temperatures lead to a reduction in population size. High variability in population size was observed between years with similar annual mean temperatures, suggesting a strong effect of intra-annual temperature variation. Critical periods were from late spring to late summer in Montpellier and from late winter to early summer in Seville and Beit-Jamal. Although our analysis suggested that earlier seasonal activity does not necessarily lead to increased populations load unless an additional generation is produced, it is highly likely that the insect will become a significant pest of open-fields at Mediterranean latitudes above 40° during the next 50 years. Our simulations also implied that current

  3. Transformations of rural production landscapes in the global network society

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Swaffield, Simon; Primdahl, Jørgen

    2010-01-01

    The concept of the global network society provides a basis for examination of current trends and policy issues in rural landscape change across a range of developed countries. Drivers of change include the demand for food and fibre to support the growing urban populations in developing conutries......, the rationalization and centralisation of supply chains under the open market angenda, and the global integration of information and control systems. These dynamics frequently conflict with place specific socio-cultural values and environmental integrity. The regional and local institutions through which...... these dynamics are managed often express conflicting aims and means, despite clearly stated intentions of 'policy integration'. Comparative analysis has highlighted the way production landscapes continue to intensify, and clear indications are found that these landscapes are converging in character under...

  4. THE EVOLUTION OF ECONOMIC GLOBALIZATION DURING THE CURRENT GLOBAL CRISIS

    OpenAIRE

    Sabina Tuca

    2013-01-01

    The current economic crisis constitutes a serious test for the process of globalization. The purpose of this study is to analyze the influence of the current global crisis on economic globalization. To assess the impact of the current crisis on economic globalization, this paper examines the KOF Index of Globalization, before and during the crisis. The findings generally support the idea that economic globalization has been, in fact, weakened, after the onset of the current crisis. However, t...

  5. The global governance of crisis migration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Betts

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available There is no coherent or unified global governance framework for the different areas that have been subsumed under the umbrella of ‘crisis migration’. This is not to say that when new challenges or labels arise new institution-building is necessarily required. Addressing emerging protection gaps such as those related to crisis migration requires creativity in making existing institutions work better across implementation, institutionalisation and international agreements.

  6. Globalization

    OpenAIRE

    Andru?cã Maria Carmen

    2013-01-01

    The field of globalization has highlighted an interdependence implied by a more harmonious understanding determined by the daily interaction between nations through the inducement of peace and the management of streamlining and the effectiveness of the global economy. For the functioning of the globalization, the developing countries that can be helped by the developed ones must be involved. The international community can contribute to the institution of the development environment of the gl...

  7. GLOBAL GOVERNANCE VS. NATIONAL SOVEREIGNTY IN A GLOBALIZED WORLD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabina TUCA

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The global economic and financial crisis of 2007 highlighted the risks, threats and enormous costs of a global economy in the absence of a global government. The aim of this paper is to emphasize the importance of global governance in a world in which states are facing the erosion of national sovereignty. The two concepts are being analyzed from various points of view, including current challenges and future scenarios. Despite the fact that states, especially major powers, are not prepared to accept some elements of global governance and the limits that they would put on their national sovereignty, recent developments seem to make global governance a key component of the international scene.

  8. Economic optimization of a global strategy to address the pandemic threat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pike, Jamison; Bogich, Tiffany; Elwood, Sarah; Finnoff, David C; Daszak, Peter

    2014-12-30

    Emerging pandemics threaten global health and economies and are increasing in frequency. Globally coordinated strategies to combat pandemics, similar to current strategies that address climate change, are largely adaptive, in that they attempt to reduce the impact of a pathogen after it has emerged. However, like climate change, mitigation strategies have been developed that include programs to reduce the underlying drivers of pandemics, particularly animal-to-human disease transmission. Here, we use real options economic modeling of current globally coordinated adaptation strategies for pandemic prevention. We show that they would be optimally implemented within 27 y to reduce the annual rise of emerging infectious disease events by 50% at an estimated one-time cost of approximately $343.7 billion. We then analyze World Bank data on multilateral "One Health" pandemic mitigation programs. We find that, because most pandemics have animal origins, mitigation is a more cost-effective policy than business-as-usual adaptation programs, saving between $344.0.7 billion and $360.3 billion over the next 100 y if implemented today. We conclude that globally coordinated pandemic prevention policies need to be enacted urgently to be optimally effective and that strategies to mitigate pandemics by reducing the impact of their underlying drivers are likely to be more effective than business as usual.

  9. South African cities and Globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Céline Vacchiani-Marcuzzo

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Illustration 1 – Centre des affaires, Le CapAuteur : Céline Vacchiani-Marcuzzo.Born with colonial settlement patterns, the South-African urban system has experienced half a century of Apartheid. Under the effects of globalization, this urban system evolves as more developed urban systems and mature settlement patterns. This urbanization process (in the limits of functional urban agglomeration makes South Africa one of the most advanced countries in Africa in terms of urban growth. The world-...

  10. SAPFLUXNET: towards a global database of sap flow measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poyatos, Rafael; Granda, Víctor; Molowny-Horas, Roberto; Mencuccini, Maurizio; Steppe, Kathy; Martínez-Vilalta, Jordi

    2016-12-01

    Plant transpiration is the main evaporative flux from terrestrial ecosystems; it controls land surface energy balance, determines catchment hydrological responses and influences regional and global climate. Transpiration regulation by plants is a key (and still not completely understood) process that underlies vegetation drought responses and land evaporative fluxes under global change scenarios. Thermometric methods of sap flow measurement have now been widely used to quantify whole-plant and stand transpiration in forests, shrublands and orchards around the world. A large body of research has applied sap flow methods to analyse seasonal and diurnal patterns of transpiration and to quantify their responses to hydroclimatic variability, but syntheses of sap flow data at regional to global scales are extremely rare. Here we present the SAPFLUXNET initiative, aimed at building the first global database of plant-level sap flow measurements. A preliminary metadata survey launched in December 2015 showed an encouraging response by the sap flow community, with sap flow data sets from field studies representing >160 species and >120 globally distributed sites. The main goal of SAPFLUXNET is to analyse the ecological factors driving plant- and stand-level transpiration. SAPFLUXNET will open promising research avenues at an unprecedented global scope, namely: (i) exploring the spatio-temporal variability of plant transpiration and its relationship with plant and stand attributes, (ii) summarizing physiological regulation of transpiration by means of few water-use traits, usable for land surface models, (iii) improving our understanding of the coordination between gas exchange and plant-level traits (e.g., hydraulics) and (iv) analysing the ecological factors controlling stand transpiration and evapotranspiration partitioning. Finally, SAPFLUXNET can provide a benchmark to test models of physiological controls of transpiration, contributing to improve the accuracy of

  11. Social Identities in a Globalized World: Challenges and Opportunities for Collective Action.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenmann, Amir; Reese, Gerhard; Cameron, James E

    2016-03-01

    Globalization-the increasing interconnectedness of societies, economies, and cultures-is a defining feature of contemporary social life. Paradoxically, it underlies both the dynamics of global crises (e.g., rising inequality, climate change) and the possibilities for ameliorating them. In this review, we introduce globalization as a multifaceted process and elaborate its psychological effects with respect to identity, culture, and collective action. Using a social identity approach, we discuss three foci of identification: local culture, globalized Western culture, and humanity in its entirety. Each source of identification is analyzed in terms of its psychological meaning and position vis-à-vis the global power structure. Globalized Western culture forms the basis for an exclusive globalized identity, which privileges only some cultures and ways of life. We conceptualize reactions to its core values in terms of cultural identification and rejection and acceptance of, or opposition to, its global social order. Opposition to this inequitable global order is central to inclusive globalized identities (e.g., identification with humanity). These identities may encourage globally minded collective action, even as more research is needed to address their potential caveats. We consider possibilities for social change and action and conclude that a focused application of psychological science to the study of these issues is overdue. © The Author(s) 2016.

  12. Global thermal coal trade outlook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ewart, E.

    2008-01-01

    Wood Mackenzie operates coal consulting offices in several cities around the world and is the number one consulting company in terms of global coal coverage. The company offers a unique mine-by-mine research methodology, and owns a proprietary modeling system for coal and power market forecasting. This presentation provided an overview of global thermal markets as well as recent market trends. Seaborne markets have an impact on price far greater than the volume of trade would imply. Research has also demonstrated that the global thermal coal market is divided between the Pacific and Atlantic Basins. The current status of several major coal exporting countries such as Canada, the United States, Venezuela, Colombia, Indonesia, Australia, China, South Africa, and Russia was displayed in an illustration. The presentation included several graphs indicating that the seaborne thermal coal market is highly concentrated; traditional coal flow and pricing trends shift as Asian demand growth and supply constraints lead to chronic under supply; coal prices have risen to historic highs in recent times; and, the Asian power sector demand is a major driver of future growth. The correlation between oil and gas markets to thermal coal was illustrated along with two scenarios of coal use in the United States in a carbon-constrained world. The impact of carbon legislation on coal demand from selected coal regions in the United States was also discussed. Wood Mackenzie forecasts a very strong growth in global thermal coal demand, driven largely by emerging Asian economies. tabs., figs

  13. Global Convergence of the EM Algorithm for Unconstrained Latent Variable Models with Categorical Indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weissman, Alexander

    2013-01-01

    Convergence of the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm to a global optimum of the marginal log likelihood function for unconstrained latent variable models with categorical indicators is presented. The sufficient conditions under which global convergence of the EM algorithm is attainable are provided in an information-theoretic context by…

  14. Global Bifurcation of a Novel Computer Virus Propagation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianguo Ren

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In a recent paper by J. Ren et al. (2012, a novel computer virus propagation model under the effect of the antivirus ability in a real network is established. The analysis there only partially uncovers the dynamics behaviors of virus spread over the network in the case where around bifurcation is local. In the present paper, by mathematical analysis, it is further shown that, under appropriate parameter values, the model may undergo a global B-T bifurcation, and the curves of saddle-node bifurcation, Hopf bifurcation, and homoclinic bifurcation are obtained to illustrate the qualitative behaviors of virus propagation. On this basis, a collection of policies is recommended to prohibit the virus prevalence. To our knowledge, this is the first time the global bifurcation has been explored for the computer virus propagation. Theoretical results and corresponding suggestions may help us suppress or eliminate virus propagation in the network.

  15. Global health research needs global networking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ignaciuk, A.; Leemans, R.

    2012-01-01

    To meet the challenges arising from global environmental change on human health, co-developing common approaches and new alliances of science and society are necessary. The first steps towards defining cross-cutting, health-environment issues were developed by the Global Environmental Change and

  16. The Internet: a global free space with limited state control

    OpenAIRE

    Dommering, E.; van Ginkel, B.; de Goede, M.; Koops, B.J.; Plooij-van Gorsel, E.; Verrijn Stuart, H.; Smallenbroek, J.

    2015-01-01

    Chapter II explains that the internet, as represented by the internet community, has broken free of the traditional structure of the telecommunication sector under international law, namely a convention (recording global agreements about telecommunications) and an international organisation (the International Telecommunication Union) in which national states work together. This structure has been replaced by a multistakeholder model, partly under private law, consisting of ICANN (domain names...

  17. Global properties of physically interesting Lorentzian spacetimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nawarajan, Deloshan; Visser, Matt

    Under normal circumstances most members of the general relativity community focus almost exclusively on the local properties of spacetime, such as the locally Euclidean structure of the manifold and the Lorentzian signature of the metric tensor. When combined with the classical Einstein field equations this gives an extremely successful empirical model of classical gravity and classical matter — at least as long as one does not ask too many awkward questions about global issues, (such as global topology and global causal structure). We feel however that this is a tactical error — even without invoking full-fledged “quantum gravity” we know that the standard model of particle physics is also an extremely good representation of some parts of empirical reality; and we had better be able to carry over all the good features of the standard model of particle physics — at least into the realm of semi-classical quantum gravity. Doing so gives us some interesting global features that spacetime should possess: On physical grounds spacetime should be space-orientable, time-orientable, and spacetime-orientable, and it should possess a globally defined tetrad (vierbein, or in general a globally defined vielbein/n-bein). So on physical grounds spacetime should be parallelizable. This strongly suggests that the metric is not the fundamental physical quantity; a very good case can be made for the tetrad being more fundamental than the metric. Furthermore, a globally-defined “almost complex structure” is almost unavoidable. Ideas along these lines have previously been mooted, but much is buried in the pre-arXiv literature and is either forgotten or inaccessible. We shall revisit these ideas taking a perspective very much based on empirical physical observation.

  18. Global usability

    CERN Document Server

    Douglas, Ian

    2011-01-01

    The concept of usability has become an increasingly important consideration in the design of all kinds of technology. As more products are aimed at global markets and developed through internationally distributed teams, usability design needs to be addressed in global terms. Interest in usability as a design issue and specialist area of research and education has developed steadily in North America and Europe since the 1980's. However, it is only over the last ten years that it has emerged as a global concern. Global Usability provides an introduction to the important issues in globalizing des

  19. Obesity as malnutrition: the role of capitalism in the obesity global epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wells, Jonathan C K

    2012-01-01

    The global obesity epidemic remains poorly understood, partly because it has emerged alongside persisting under-nutrition in many populations. At an abstract level, obesity develops from exposure to the "obesogenic niche," comprising diverse factors predisposing to weight gain. This article first explores how susceptibility to the obesogenic niche is influenced by developmental and life-history experience. Human growth is sensitive to early-life ecological conditions, under the transducing effect of maternal phenotype. Such plasticity is associated with subsequent variability in body composition and metabolism, impacting susceptibility to the obesogenic niche, albeit with heterogeneity across populations. Both nutritional constraint and nutritional excess during early life are associated with variability in relevant molecular pathways. The article then considers the fundamental contribution of capitalist economics to population under-nutrition and over-nutrition. Historically, capitalism contributed to the under-nutrition of many populations through demand for cheap labor. As the limiting factor for economic growth switched to consumption, capitalism has increasingly driven consumer behavior inducing widespread over-nutrition. In populations undergoing nutritional transition, many individuals encounter both under- and over-nutrition within the life course, elevating both susceptibility and exposure to the obesogenic niche. The interactions between global economic forces and nutritional shifts are distributed across generations, and are strongly transduced by maternal effects. The structural connections between undernourished and overnourished worldwide and between under- and over-nutrition within individual life-courses highlight the central role of capitalist economics in the global obesity epidemic. Prevention policies targeting individual behavior have proved ineffective and economic policies are arguably the optimal target for intervention. Copyright © 2012

  20. Climate change impacts on soil carbon storage in global croplands: 1901-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, W.; Tian, H.

    2015-12-01

    New global data finds 12% of earth's surface in cropland at present. Croplands will take on the responsibility to support approximate 60% increase in food production by 2050 as FAO estimates. In addition to nutrient supply to plants, cropland soils also play a major source and sink of greenhouse gases regulating global climate system. It is a big challenge to understand how soils function under global changes, but it is also a great opportunity for agricultural sector to manage soils to assure sustainability of agroecosystems and mitigate climate change. Previous studies have attempted to investigate the impacts of different land uses and climates on cropland soil carbon storage. However, large uncertainty still exists in magnitude and spatiotemporal patterns of global cropland soil organic carbon, due to the lack of reliable environmental databases and relatively poorly understanding of multiple controlling factors involved climate change and land use etc. Here, we use a process-based agroecosystem model (DLEM-Ag) in combination with diverse data sources to quantify magnitude and tempo-spatial patterns of soil carbon storage in global croplands during 1901-2010. We also analyze the relative contributions of major environmental variables (climate change, land use and management etc.). Our results indicate that intensive land use management may hidden the vulnerability of cropland soils to climate change in some regions, which may greatly weaken soil carbon sequestration under future climate change.

  1. Under-Nutrition in Older People: A Serious and Growing Global Problem!

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Visvanathan R

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Everyone agrees that adequate nutrient intake is important to all living things. Without food or water, life on earth would cease to exist. In the field of medical health, some gains have been made in meeting maternal and child nutritional needs. There is great community awareness regarding the importance of meeting the nutritional needs of the developing foetus and child. Malnutrition secondary to decreased intake in older people and weight loss is also a serious problem with unfortunately, very little notice from the community at large. As one ages, several physiological processes may contribute towards the development of protein energy malnutrition. Under-nutrition in older people is sadly far too common, even in developed countries. It is very likely that the same concerted effort used to address child malnutrition is required to combat under-nutrition in our elders. Protein energy malnutrition in older people comes at a significant cost to the individual, families, communities and the healthcare system. Failure to address this syndrome is not only unethical and unhealthy, but also costly. Vigilance and community awareness is important in ensuring that this important syndrome is detected and managed appropriately. This review mainly attempts to describe the pathophysiology, prevalence and consequences of under-nutrition and aims to highlight the importance of this clinical syndrome and the recent growth in our understanding of the processes behind its development. Some management strategies are also briefly described.

  2. The national security dividend of global carbon mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mignone, Bryan K.

    2007-01-01

    Energy and environmental security objectives are often conflated in political circles and in the popular press. Results from a well-established integrated assessment model suggest that policies designed to stabilize atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations at levels above ∼500 ppm generally do not align with policies to curb global oil dependence, because these atmospheric objectives can be achieved largely through reductions in global coal consumption. Policies designed to stabilize atmospheric carbon dioxide at levels below ∼500 ppm, on the other hand, directly facilitate the alignment of environmental and security objectives because atmospheric targets in this range demand significant reductions in both coal and oil use. Greater recognition that investment in carbon mitigation can yield significant security dividends may alter the political cost-benefit calculus of energy-importing nations and could increase the willingness of some key global actors to seek binding cooperative targets under any post-Kyoto climate treaty regime

  3. Global testing under sparse alternatives: ANOVA, multiple comparisons and the higher criticism

    OpenAIRE

    Arias-Castro, Ery; Candès, Emmanuel J.; Plan, Yaniv

    2011-01-01

    Testing for the significance of a subset of regression coefficients in a linear model, a staple of statistical analysis, goes back at least to the work of Fisher who introduced the analysis of variance (ANOVA). We study this problem under the assumption that the coefficient vector is sparse, a common situation in modern high-dimensional settings. Suppose we have $p$ covariates and that under the alternative, the response only depends upon the order of $p^{1-\\alpha}$ of those, $0\\le\\alpha\\le1$...

  4. Hurricane Matthew (2016) and its Storm Surge Inundation under Global Warming Scenarios: Application of an Interactively Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jisan, M. A.; Bao, S.; Pietrafesa, L.; Pullen, J.

    2017-12-01

    An interactively coupled atmosphere-ocean model was used to investigate the impacts of future ocean warming, both at the surface and the layers below, on the track and intensity of a hurricane and its associated storm surge and inundation. The category-5 hurricane Matthew (2016), which made landfall on the South Carolina coast of the United States, was used for the case study. Future ocean temperature changes and sea level rise (SLR) were estimated based on the projection of Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'s Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5. After being validated with the present-day observational data, the model was applied to simulate the changes in track, intensity, storm surge and inundation that Hurricane Matthew would cause under future climate change scenarios. It was found that a significant increase in hurricane intensity, storm surge water level, and inundation area for Hurricane Matthew under future ocean warming and SLR scenarios. For example, under the RCP 8.5 scenario, the maximum wind speed would increase by 17 knots (14.2%), the minimum sea level pressure would decrease by 26 hPa (2.85%), and the inundated area would increase by 401 km2 (123%). By including the effect of SLR for the middle-21st-century scenario, the inundated area will further increase by up to 49.6%. The increase in the hurricane intensity and the inundated area was also found for the RCP 2.6 scenario. The response of sea surface temperature was analyzed to investigate the change in intensity. A comparison was made between the impacts when only the sea surface warming is considered versus when both the sea surface and the underneath layers are considered. These results showed that even without the effect of SLR, the storm surge level and the inundated area would be higher due to the increased hurricane intensity under the influence of the future warmer ocean temperature. The coupled effect of ocean warming and SLR would cause the

  5. (Un)certainty in climate change impacts on global energy consumption

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Ruijven, B. J.; De Cian, E.; Sue Wing, I.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change is expected to have an influence on the energy sector, especially on energy demand. For many locations, this change in energy demand is a balance between increase of demand for space cooling and a decrease of space heating demand. We perform a large-scale uncertainty analysis to characterize climate change risk on energy consumption as driven by climate and socioeconomic uncertainty. We combine a dynamic econometric model1 with multiple realizations of temperature projections from all 21 CMIP5 models (from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections2) under moderate (RCP4.5) and vigorous (RCP8.5) warming. Global spatial population projections for five SSPs are combined with GDP projections to construct scenarios for future energy demand driven by socioeconomic change. Between the climate models, we find a median global increase in climate-related energy demand of around 24% by 2050 under RCP8.5 with an interquartile range of 18-38%. Most climate models agree on increases in energy demand of more than 25% or 50% in tropical regions, the Southern USA and Southern China (see Figure). With respect to socioeconomic scenarios, we find wide variations between the SSPs for the number of people in low-income countries who are exposed to increases in energy demand. Figure attached: Number of models that agree on total climate-related energy consumption to increase or decrease by more than 0, 10, 25 or 50% by 2050 under RCP8.5 and SSP5 as result of the CMIP5 ensemble of temperature projections. References1. De Cian, E. & Sue Wing, I. Global Energy Demand in a Warming Climate. (FEEM, 2016). 2. Thrasher, B., Maurer, E. P., McKellar, C. & Duffy, P. B. Technical Note: Bias correcting climate model simulated daily temperature extremes with quantile mapping. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 16, 3309-3314 (2012).

  6. Global solidarity, migration and global health inequity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eckenwiler, Lisa; Straehle, Christine; Chung, Ryoa

    2012-09-01

    The grounds for global solidarity have been theorized and conceptualized in recent years, and many have argued that we need a global concept of solidarity. But the question remains: what can motivate efforts of the international community and nation-states? Our focus is the grounding of solidarity with respect to global inequities in health. We explore what considerations could motivate acts of global solidarity in the specific context of health migration, and sketch briefly what form this kind of solidarity could take. First, we argue that the only plausible conceptualization of persons highlights their interdependence. We draw upon a conception of persons as 'ecological subjects' and from there illustrate what such a conception implies with the example of nurses migrating from low and middle-income countries to more affluent ones. Next, we address potential critics who might counter any such understanding of current international politics with a reference to real-politik and the insights of realist international political theory. We argue that national governments--while not always or even often motivated by moral reasons alone--may nevertheless be motivated to acts of global solidarity by prudential arguments. Solidarity then need not be, as many argue, a function of charitable inclination, or emergent from an acknowledgment of injustice suffered, but may in fact serve national and transnational interests. We conclude on a positive note: global solidarity may be conceptualized to helpfully address global health inequity, to the extent that personal and transnational interdependence are enough to motivate national governments into action. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  7. How a new funding model will shift allocations from the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Victoria Y; Glassman, Amanda; Silverman, Rachel L

    2014-12-01

    Policy makers deciding how to fund global health programs in low- and middle-income countries face important but difficult questions about how to allocate resources across countries. In this article we present a typology of three allocation methodologies to align allocations with priorities. We then apply our typology to the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria. We examined the Global Fund's historical HIV allocations and its predicted allocations under a new funding model that creates an explicit allocation methodology. We found that under the new funding model, substantial shifts in the Global Fund's portfolio are likely to result from concentrating resources in countries with more HIV cases and lower per capita incomes. For example, South Africa, which had 15.8 percent of global HIV cases in 2009, could see its Global Fund HIV funding more than triple, from historic levels that averaged 3.0 percent to 9.7 percent of total Global Fund allocations. The new funding model methodology is expected, but not guaranteed, to improve the efficiency of Global Fund allocations in comparison to historical practice. We conclude with recommendations for the Global Fund and other global health donors to further develop their allocation methodologies and processes to improve efficiency and transparency. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

  8. Cointegration rank testing under conditional heteroskedasticity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cavaliere, Giuseppe; Rahbek, Anders Christian; Taylor, Robert M.

    2010-01-01

    We analyze the properties of the conventional Gaussian-based cointegrating rank tests of Johansen (1996, Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models) in the case where the vector of series under test is driven by globally stationary, conditionally heteroskedastic......, relative to tests based on the asymptotic critical values or the i.i.d. bootstrap, the wild bootstrap rank tests perform very well in small samples under a variety of conditionally heteroskedastic innovation processes. An empirical application to the term structure of interest rates is given....

  9. Citizenship for a Changing Global Climate: Learning from New Zealand and Norway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayward, Bronwyn; Selboe, Elin; Plew, Elizabeth

    2015-01-01

    Young citizens under the age of 25?years make up just under half of the world's population. Globally, they face new, interrelated problems of dangerous environmental change, including increasing incidence of severe storms associated with a changing climate, and related new threats to human security. Addressing the complex challenge of climate…

  10. Assessment of the water supply:demand ratios in a Mediterranean basin under different global change scenarios and mitigation alternatives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boithias, Laurie; Acuña, Vicenç; Vergoñós, Laura; Ziv, Guy; Marcé, Rafael; Sabater, Sergi

    2014-02-01

    Spatial differences in the supply and demand of ecosystem services such as water provisioning often imply that the demand for ecosystem services cannot be fulfilled at the local scale, but it can be fulfilled at larger scales (regional, continental). Differences in the supply:demand (S:D) ratio for a given service result in different values, and these differences might be assessed with monetary or non-monetary metrics. Water scarcity occurs where and when water resources are not enough to meet all the demands, and this affects equally the service of water provisioning and the ecosystem needs. In this study we assess the value of water in a Mediterranean basin under different global change (i.e. both climate and anthropogenic changes) and mitigation scenarios, with a non-monetary metric: the S:D ratio. We computed water balances across the Ebro basin (North-East Spain) with the spatially explicit InVEST model. We highlight the spatial and temporal mismatches existing across a single hydrological basin regarding water provisioning and its consumption, considering or not, the environmental demand (environmental flow). The study shows that water scarcity is commonly a local issue (sub-basin to region), but that all demands are met at the largest considered spatial scale (basin). This was not the case in the worst-case scenario (increasing demands and decreasing supply), as the S:D ratio at the basin scale was near 1, indicating that serious problems of water scarcity might occur in the near future even at the basin scale. The analysis of possible mitigation scenarios reveals that the impact of global change may be counteracted by the decrease of irrigated areas. Furthermore, the comparison between a non-monetary (S:D ratio) and a monetary (water price) valuation metrics reveals that the S:D ratio provides similar values and might be therefore used as a spatially explicit metric to valuate the ecosystem service water provisioning. © 2013.

  11. Threats from urban expansion, agricultural transformation and forest loss on global conservation priority areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moilanen, Atte; Di Minin, Enrico

    2017-01-01

    Including threats in spatial conservation prioritization helps identify areas for conservation actions where biodiversity is at imminent risk of extinction. At the global level, an important limitation when identifying spatial priorities for conservation actions is the lack of information on the spatial distribution of threats. Here, we identify spatial conservation priorities under three prominent threats to biodiversity (residential and commercial development, agricultural expansion, and forest loss), which are primary drivers of habitat loss and threaten the persistence of the highest number of species in the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List, and for which spatial data is available. We first explore how global priority areas for the conservation of vertebrate (mammals, birds, and amphibians) species coded in the Red List as vulnerable to each threat differ spatially. We then identify spatial conservation priorities for all species vulnerable to all threats. Finally, we identify the potentially most threatened areas by overlapping the identified priority areas for conservation with maps for each threat. We repeat the same with four other well-known global conservation priority area schemes, namely Key Biodiversity Areas, Biodiversity Hotspots, the global Protected Area Network, and Wilderness Areas. We find that residential and commercial development directly threatens only about 4% of the global top 17% priority areas for species vulnerable under this threat. However, 50% of the high priority areas for species vulnerable to forest loss overlap with areas that have already experienced some forest loss. Agricultural expansion overlapped with ~20% of high priority areas. Biodiversity Hotspots had the greatest proportion of their total area under direct threat from all threats, while expansion of low intensity agriculture was found to pose an imminent threat to Wilderness Areas under future agricultural expansion. Our results

  12. O dólar e os desequilíbrios globais The dollar and the global disequilibria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz Gonzaga Belluzzo

    2005-09-01

    Full Text Available The global expansion of capitalism under American hegemony in the second half of the 20th century has changed the international division of labor and center-periphery scheme proposed under British hegemony. Under the new international division of labor, the United States is forced to generate an ever growing deficit in their trade account in order to accommodate the "mercantilist' expansion of Asian countries, produced by the trans-nationalization of big capital, under American aegis. This form of global economic articulation is at the root of the rupture of the Bretton Woods system and the growing financial liberalization imposed by the hegemonic power over other countries since the 80s.

  13. Modeling of the Global Water Cycle - Analytical Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yongqiang Liu; Roni Avissar

    2005-01-01

    Both numerical and analytical models of coupled atmosphere and its underlying ground components (land, ocean, ice) are useful tools for modeling the global and regional water cycle. Unlike complex three-dimensional climate models, which need very large computing resources and involve a large number of complicated interactions often difficult to interpret, analytical...

  14. Local Reasons to Give Globally: Identity Extension and Global Cooperation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchan, Nancy R; Jeong, Sophia Soyoung; Ward, A K

    2017-11-14

    Recent political events across the world suggest a retrenchment from globalization and a possible increase in parochialism. This inward-looking threat from parochialism occurs just as the global community faces growing challenges that require trans-national cooperation. In this research, we question if strong identification with an in-group necessarily leads to parochialism and ultimately is detrimental to global cooperation. Building on research on global social identification, we explore whether strong local identification can expand in inclusiveness to global identification, and among whom this is likely to happen. The results of our global public goods study - conducted in South Korea and the United States - show that high levels of social identification with a local group can extend to the global collective, particularly for individuals who are also high in concern-for-others. Furthermore, this identification translates into behavior that benefits the global, anonymous group at a cost to oneself. These results shed light on how to avoid the trap of parochialism and instead engender cooperative behavior with the broader global community.

  15. Global Combustion Mechanisms for Use in CFD Modeling under Oxy-Fuel Conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jimmy; Rasmussen, Christian Lund; Giselsson, Trine

    2009-01-01

    Two global multistep schemes, the two-step mechanism of Westbrook and Dryer (WD) and the four-step mechanism of Jones and Lindstedt (JL), have been refined for oxy-fuel conditions. Reference calculations were conducted with a detailed chemical kinetic mechanism, validated for oxy-fuel combustion...... conditions. In the modification approach, the initiating reactions involving hydrocarbon and oxygen were retained, while modifying the H-2-CO-CO2 reactions in order to improve prediction of major species concentrations. The main attention has been to capture the trend and level of CO predicted...... by the detailed mechanism as well as the correct equilibrium concentration. A CFD analysis of a propane oxy-fuel flame has been performed using both the original and modified mechanisms. Compared to the original schemes, the modified WD mechanism improved the prediction of the temperature field and of CO...

  16. Simulations research of the global predictive control with self-adaptive in the gas turbine of the nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Su Jie; Xia Guoqing; Zhang Wei

    2007-01-01

    For further improving the dynamic control capabilities of the gas turbine of the nuclear power plant, this paper puts forward to apply the algorithm of global predictive control with self-adaptive in the rotate speed control of the gas turbine, including control structure and the design of controller in the base of expounding the math model of the gas turbine of the nuclear power plant. the simulation results show that the respond of the change of the gas turbine speed under the control algorithm of global predictive control with self-adaptive is ten second faster than that under the PID control algorithm, and the output value of the gas turbine speed under the PID control algorithm is 1%-2% higher than that under the control slgorithm of global predictive control with self-adaptive. It shows that the algorithm of global predictive control with self-adaptive can better control the output of the speed of the gas turbine of the nuclear power plant and get the better control effect. (authors)

  17. Responsibility of international organizations under international law for the acts of global health public-private partnerships

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Clarke, L.C.

    2011-01-01

    Public-private partnerships governing global health are making progress in relation to the prevention and treatment of diseases such as AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria. This progress should not be underestimated as these partnerships are making strides above and beyond efforts of either the public

  18. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R.

    1994-05-01

    The scope of the report is to present the results of the fourth year's work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals

  19. Global warming without global mean precipitation increase?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salzmann, Marc

    2016-06-01

    Global climate models simulate a robust increase of global mean precipitation of about 1.5 to 2% per kelvin surface warming in response to greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. Here, it is shown that the sensitivity to aerosol cooling is robust as well, albeit roughly twice as large. This larger sensitivity is consistent with energy budget arguments. At the same time, it is still considerably lower than the 6.5 to 7% K(-1) decrease of the water vapor concentration with cooling from anthropogenic aerosol because the water vapor radiative feedback lowers the hydrological sensitivity to anthropogenic forcings. When GHG and aerosol forcings are combined, the climate models with a realistic 20th century warming indicate that the global mean precipitation increase due to GHG warming has, until recently, been completely masked by aerosol drying. This explains the apparent lack of sensitivity of the global mean precipitation to the net global warming recently found in observations. As the importance of GHG warming increases in the future, a clear signal will emerge.

  20. Development of an Integrated Global Energy Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krakowski, R.A.

    1999-01-01

    The primary objective of this research was to develop a forefront analysis tool for application to enhance understanding of long-term, global, nuclear-energy and nuclear-material futures. To this end, an existing economics-energy-environmental (E 3 ) model was adopted, modified, and elaborated to examine this problem in a multi-regional (13), long-term (approximately2,100) context. The E 3 model so developed was applied to create a Los Alamos presence in this E 3 area through ''niche analyses'' that provide input to the formulation of policies dealing with and shaping of nuclear-energy and nuclear-materials futures. Results from analyses using the E 3 model have been presented at a variety of national and international conferences and workshops. Through use of the E 3 model Los Alamos was afforded the opportunity to participate in a multi-national E 3 study team that is examining a range of global, long-term nuclear issues under the auspices of the IAEA during the 1998-99 period . Finally, the E 3 model developed under this LDRD project is being used as an important component in more recent Nuclear Material Management Systems (NMMS) project