Everly, George S; Smith, Kenneth J; Lating, Jeffrey M
2009-01-01
Based on the recommendations of Rodgers (2010) and practices by Smith, Davy, & Everly (2007) and Everly, Smith, and Welzant (2008), structural modeling was used in this investigation designed to better discern causal mechanisms within the cognitive-affective arousal construct that contribute to burnout, job dissatisfaction, turnover intention, and performance. The primary purpose of this study was to better inform those interested in program develop and clinical intervention of the nature of mechanisms of pathogenesis and resiliency. This study utilized the responses of the 491 individuals employed in public accounting. Results indicate that the cognitive-affective domain is an essential determinant of burnout, job dissatisfaction, turnover intention, and performance. Furthermore, cognitive states appear to exert their effect through affective arousal that subsequently appears to have a defining role in the development of the aforementioned variables.
Chemical model reduction under uncertainty
Najm, Habib; Galassi, R. Malpica; Valorani, M.
2016-01-01
We outline a strategy for chemical kinetic model reduction under uncertainty. We present highlights of our existing deterministic model reduction strategy, and describe the extension of the formulation to include parametric uncertainty in the detailed mechanism. We discuss the utility of this construction, as applied to hydrocarbon fuel-air kinetics, and the associated use of uncertainty-aware measures of error between predictions from detailed and simplified models.
Chemical model reduction under uncertainty
Najm, Habib
2016-01-05
We outline a strategy for chemical kinetic model reduction under uncertainty. We present highlights of our existing deterministic model reduction strategy, and describe the extension of the formulation to include parametric uncertainty in the detailed mechanism. We discuss the utility of this construction, as applied to hydrocarbon fuel-air kinetics, and the associated use of uncertainty-aware measures of error between predictions from detailed and simplified models.
Modelling microstructural evolution under irradiation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tikare, V.
2015-01-01
Microstructural evolution of materials under irradiation is characterised by some unique features that are not typically present in other application environments. While much understanding has been achieved by experimental studies, the ability to model this microstructural evolution for complex materials states and environmental conditions not only enhances understanding, it also enables prediction of materials behaviour under conditions that are difficult to duplicate experimentally. Furthermore, reliable models enable designing materials for improved engineering performance for their respective applications. Thus, development and application of mesoscale microstructural model are important for advancing nuclear materials technologies. In this chapter, the application of the Potts model to nuclear materials will be reviewed and demonstrated, as an example of microstructural evolution processes. (author)
A cognition-based method to ease the computational load for an extended Kalman filter.
Li, Yanpeng; Li, Xiang; Deng, Bin; Wang, Hongqiang; Qin, Yuliang
2014-12-03
The extended Kalman filter (EKF) is the nonlinear model of a Kalman filter (KF). It is a useful parameter estimation method when the observation model and/or the state transition model is not a linear function. However, the computational requirements in EKF are a difficulty for the system. With the help of cognition-based designation and the Taylor expansion method, a novel algorithm is proposed to ease the computational load for EKF in azimuth predicting and localizing under a nonlinear observation model. When there are nonlinear functions and inverse calculations for matrices, this method makes use of the major components (according to current performance and the performance requirements) in the Taylor expansion. As a result, the computational load is greatly lowered and the performance is ensured. Simulation results show that the proposed measure will deliver filtering output with a similar precision compared to the regular EKF. At the same time, the computational load is substantially lowered.
Haldane model under nonuniform strain
Ho, Yen-Hung; Castro, Eduardo V.; Cazalilla, Miguel A.
2017-10-01
We study the Haldane model under strain using a tight-binding approach, and compare the obtained results with the continuum-limit approximation. As in graphene, nonuniform strain leads to a time-reversal preserving pseudomagnetic field that induces (pseudo-)Landau levels. Unlike a real magnetic field, strain lifts the degeneracy of the zeroth pseudo-Landau levels at different valleys. Moreover, for the zigzag edge under uniaxial strain, strain removes the degeneracy within the pseudo-Landau levels by inducing a tilt in their energy dispersion. The latter arises from next-to-leading order corrections to the continuum-limit Hamiltonian, which are absent for a real magnetic field. We show that, for the lowest pseudo-Landau levels in the Haldane model, the dominant contribution to the tilt is different from graphene. In addition, although strain does not strongly modify the dispersion of the edge states, their interplay with the pseudo-Landau levels is different for the armchair and zigzag ribbons. Finally, we study the effect of strain in the band structure of the Haldane model at the critical point of the topological transition, thus shedding light on the interplay between nontrivial topology and strain in quantum anomalous Hall systems.
Consistency of the MLE under mixture models
Chen, Jiahua
2016-01-01
The large-sample properties of likelihood-based statistical inference under mixture models have received much attention from statisticians. Although the consistency of the nonparametric MLE is regarded as a standard conclusion, many researchers ignore the precise conditions required on the mixture model. An incorrect claim of consistency can lead to false conclusions even if the mixture model under investigation seems well behaved. Under a finite normal mixture model, for instance, the consis...
Chemical model reduction under uncertainty
Malpica Galassi, Riccardo; Valorani, Mauro; Najm, Habib N.; Safta, Cosmin; Khalil, Mohammad; Ciottoli, Pietro P.
2017-01-01
A general strategy for analysis and reduction of uncertain chemical kinetic models is presented, and its utility is illustrated in the context of ignition of hydrocarbon fuel–air mixtures. The strategy is based on a deterministic analysis
Chemical model reduction under uncertainty
Malpica Galassi, Riccardo
2017-03-06
A general strategy for analysis and reduction of uncertain chemical kinetic models is presented, and its utility is illustrated in the context of ignition of hydrocarbon fuel–air mixtures. The strategy is based on a deterministic analysis and reduction method which employs computational singular perturbation analysis to generate simplified kinetic mechanisms, starting from a detailed reference mechanism. We model uncertain quantities in the reference mechanism, namely the Arrhenius rate parameters, as random variables with prescribed uncertainty factors. We propagate this uncertainty to obtain the probability of inclusion of each reaction in the simplified mechanism. We propose probabilistic error measures to compare predictions from the uncertain reference and simplified models, based on the comparison of the uncertain dynamics of the state variables, where the mixture entropy is chosen as progress variable. We employ the construction for the simplification of an uncertain mechanism in an n-butane–air mixture homogeneous ignition case, where a 176-species, 1111-reactions detailed kinetic model for the oxidation of n-butane is used with uncertainty factors assigned to each Arrhenius rate pre-exponential coefficient. This illustration is employed to highlight the utility of the construction, and the performance of a family of simplified models produced depending on chosen thresholds on importance and marginal probabilities of the reactions.
Cognition-Based Approaches for High-Precision Text Mining
Shannon, George John
2017-01-01
This research improves the precision of information extraction from free-form text via the use of cognitive-based approaches to natural language processing (NLP). Cognitive-based approaches are an important, and relatively new, area of research in NLP and search, as well as linguistics. Cognitive approaches enable significant improvements in both…
RADIONUCLIDE TRANSPORT MODELS UNDER AMBIENT CONDITIONS
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
S. Magnuson
2004-11-01
The purpose of this model report is to document the unsaturated zone (UZ) radionuclide transport model, which evaluates, by means of three-dimensional numerical models, the transport of radioactive solutes and colloids in the UZ, under ambient conditions, from the repository horizon to the water table at Yucca Mountain, Nevada.
Development and initial validation of a cognitive-based work-nonwork conflict scale.
Ezzedeen, Souha R; Swiercz, Paul M
2007-06-01
Current research related to work and life outside work specifies three types of work-nonwork conflict: time, strain, and behavior-based. Overlooked in these models is a cognitive-based type of conflict whereby individuals experience work-nonwork conflict from cognitive preoccupation with work. Four studies on six different groups (N=549) were undertaken to develop and validate an initial measure of this construct. Structural equation modeling confirmed a two-factor, nine-item scale. Hypotheses regarding cognitive-based conflict's relationship with life satisfaction, work involvement, work-nonwork conflict, and work hours were supported. The relationship with knowledge work was partially supported in that only the cognitive dimension of cognitive-based conflict was related to extent of knowledge work. Hypotheses regarding cognitive-based conflict's relationship with family demands were rejected in that the cognitive dimension correlated positively rather than negatively with number of dependent children and perceived family demands. The study provides encouraging preliminary evidence of scale validity.
A model for phase stability under irradiation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Abromeit, C.
The combination of two theoretical models leads to modified criteria of stability of precipitates under heavy particle irradiation. The size of existing or under irradiation newly formed precipitates is limited by a stable radius. Precipitate surface energy effects are included in a consistent manner
Bayesian Model Selection under Time Constraints
Hoege, M.; Nowak, W.; Illman, W. A.
2017-12-01
Bayesian model selection (BMS) provides a consistent framework for rating and comparing models in multi-model inference. In cases where models of vastly different complexity compete with each other, we also face vastly different computational runtimes of such models. For instance, time series of a quantity of interest can be simulated by an autoregressive process model that takes even less than a second for one run, or by a partial differential equations-based model with runtimes up to several hours or even days. The classical BMS is based on a quantity called Bayesian model evidence (BME). It determines the model weights in the selection process and resembles a trade-off between bias of a model and its complexity. However, in practice, the runtime of models is another weight relevant factor for model selection. Hence, we believe that it should be included, leading to an overall trade-off problem between bias, variance and computing effort. We approach this triple trade-off from the viewpoint of our ability to generate realizations of the models under a given computational budget. One way to obtain BME values is through sampling-based integration techniques. We argue with the fact that more expensive models can be sampled much less under time constraints than faster models (in straight proportion to their runtime). The computed evidence in favor of a more expensive model is statistically less significant than the evidence computed in favor of a faster model, since sampling-based strategies are always subject to statistical sampling error. We present a straightforward way to include this misbalance into the model weights that are the basis for model selection. Our approach follows directly from the idea of insufficient significance. It is based on a computationally cheap bootstrapping error estimate of model evidence and is easy to implement. The approach is illustrated in a small synthetic modeling study.
Radionuclide Transport Models Under Ambient Conditions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Moridis, G.; Hu, Q.
2001-01-01
The purpose of Revision 00 of this Analysis/Model Report (AMR) is to evaluate (by means of 2-D semianalytical and 3-D numerical models) the transport of radioactive solutes and colloids in the unsaturated zone (UZ) under ambient conditions from the potential repository horizon to the water table at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada
Models of bounded rationality under certainty
Rasouli, S.; Timmermans, H.J.P.; Rasouli, S.; Timmermans, H.J.P.
2015-01-01
Purpose This chapter reviews models of decision-making and choice under conditions of certainty. It allows readers to position the contribution of the other chapters in this book in the historical development of the topic area. Theory Bounded rationality is defined in terms of a strategy to simplify
Fiber Bundle Model Under Heterogeneous Loading
Roy, Subhadeep; Goswami, Sanchari
2018-03-01
The present work deals with the behavior of fiber bundle model under heterogeneous loading condition. The model is explored both in the mean-field limit as well as with local stress concentration. In the mean field limit, the failure abruptness decreases with increasing order k of heterogeneous loading. In this limit, a brittle to quasi-brittle transition is observed at a particular strength of disorder which changes with k. On the other hand, the model is hardly affected by such heterogeneity in the limit where local stress concentration plays a crucial role. The continuous limit of the heterogeneous loading is also studied and discussed in this paper. Some of the important results related to fiber bundle model are reviewed and their responses to our new scheme of heterogeneous loading are studied in details. Our findings are universal with respect to the nature of the threshold distribution adopted to assign strength to an individual fiber.
Modeling of microstructural evolution under irradiation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Odette, G.R.
1979-01-01
Microstructural evolution under irradiation is an extremely complex phenomenon involving numerous interacting mechanisms which alter both the microstructure and microchemistry of structural alloys. Predictive procedures which correlate primary irradiation and material variables to microstructural response are needed to extrapolate from the imperfect data base, which will be available, to fusion reactor conditions. Clearly, a marriage between models and experiments is needed. Specific steps to achieving such a marriage in the form of composite correlation model analysis are outlined and some preliminary results presented. The strongly correlated nature of microstructural evolution is emphasized and it is suggested that rate theory models, resting on the principle of material balances and focusing on coupled point defect-microchemical segregation processes, may be a practical approach to correlation model development. (orig.)
Numerical modeling of materials under extreme conditions
Brown, Eric
2014-01-01
The book presents twelve state of the art contributions in the field of numerical modeling of materials subjected to large strain, high strain rates, large pressure and high stress triaxialities, organized into two sections. The first part is focused on high strain rate-high pressures such as those occurring in impact dynamics and shock compression related phenomena, dealing with material response identification, advanced modeling incorporating microstructure and damage, stress waves propagation in solids and structures response under impact. The latter part is focused on large strain-low strain rates applications such as those occurring in technological material processing, dealing with microstructure and texture evolution, material response at elevated temperatures, structural behavior under large strain and multi axial state of stress.
Modeling steam pressure under martian lava flows
Dundas, Colin M.; Keszthelyi, Laszlo P.
2013-01-01
Rootless cones on Mars are a valuable indicator of past interactions between lava and water. However, the details of the lava–water interactions are not fully understood, limiting the ability to use these features to infer new information about past water on Mars. We have developed a model for the pressurization of a dry layer of porous regolith by melting and boiling ground ice in the shallow subsurface. This model builds on previous models of lava cooling and melting of subsurface ice. We find that for reasonable regolith properties and ice depths of decimeters, explosive pressures can be reached. However, the energy stored within such lags is insufficient to excavate thick flows unless they draw steam from a broader region than the local eruption site. These results indicate that lag pressurization can drive rootless cone formation under favorable circumstances, but in other instances molten fuel–coolant interactions are probably required. We use the model results to consider a range of scenarios for rootless cone formation in Athabasca Valles. Pressure buildup by melting and boiling ice under a desiccated lag is possible in some locations, consistent with the expected distribution of ice implanted from atmospheric water vapor. However, it is uncertain whether such ice has existed in the vicinity of Athabasca Valles in recent history. Plausible alternative sources include surface snow or an aqueous flood shortly before the emplacement of the lava flow.
Modelling sulfamethoxazole degradation under different redox conditions
Sanchez-Vila, X.; Rodriguez-Escales, P.
2015-12-01
Sulfamethoxazole (SMX) is a low adsorptive, polar, sulfonamide antibiotic, widely present in aquatic environments. Degradation of SMX in subsurface porous media is spatially and temporally variable, depending on various environmental factors such as in situ redox potential, availability of nutrients, local soil characteristics, and temperature. It has been reported that SMX is better degraded under anoxic conditions and by co-metabolism processes. In this work, we first develop a conceptual model of degradation of SMX under different redox conditions (denitrification and iron reducing conditions), and second, we construct a mathematical model that allows reproducing different experiments of SMX degradation reported in the literature. The conceptual model focuses on the molecular behavior and contemplates the formation of different metabolites. The model was validated using the experimental data from Barbieri et al. (2012) and Mohatt et al. (2011). It adequately reproduces the reversible degradation of SMX under the presence of nitrite as an intermediate product of denitrification. In those experiments degradation was mediated by the transient formation of a diazonium cation, which was considered responsible of the substitution of the amine radical by a nitro radical, forming the 4-nitro-SMX. The formation of this metabolite is a reversible process, so that once the concentration of nitrite was back to zero due to further advancement of denitrification, the concentration of SMX was fully recovered. The forward reaction, formation of 4-nitro SMX, was modeled considering a kinetic of second order, whereas the backward reaction, dissociation of 4-nitro-SMX back to the original compound, could be modeled with a first order degradation reaction. Regarding the iron conditions, SMX was degraded due to the oxidation of iron (Fe2+), which was previously oxidized from goethite due to the degradation of a pool of labile organic carbon. As the oxidation of iron occurred on the
Complex networks under dynamic repair model
Chaoqi, Fu; Ying, Wang; Kun, Zhao; Yangjun, Gao
2018-01-01
Invulnerability is not the only factor of importance when considering complex networks' security. It is also critical to have an effective and reasonable repair strategy. Existing research on network repair is confined to the static model. The dynamic model makes better use of the redundant capacity of repaired nodes and repairs the damaged network more efficiently than the static model; however, the dynamic repair model is complex and polytropic. In this paper, we construct a dynamic repair model and systematically describe the energy-transfer relationships between nodes in the repair process of the failure network. Nodes are divided into three types, corresponding to three structures. We find that the strong coupling structure is responsible for secondary failure of the repaired nodes and propose an algorithm that can select the most suitable targets (nodes or links) to repair the failure network with minimal cost. Two types of repair strategies are identified, with different effects under the two energy-transfer rules. The research results enable a more flexible approach to network repair.
Radionuclide Transport Models Under Ambient Conditions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Moridis, G.; Hu, Q.
2000-01-01
The purpose of this Analysis/Model Report (AMR) is to evaluate (by means of 2-D semianalytical and 3-D numerical models) the transport of radioactive solutes and colloids in the unsaturated zone (UZ) under ambient conditions from the potential repository horizon to the water table at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada. This is in accordance with the ''AMR Development Plan U0060, Radionuclide Transport Models Under Ambient Conditions'' (CRWMS M and O 1999a). This AMR supports the UZ Flow and Transport Process Model Report (PMR). This AMR documents the UZ Radionuclide Transport Model (RTM). This model considers: the transport of radionuclides through fractured tuffs; the effects of changes in the intensity and configuration of fracturing from hydrogeologic unit to unit; colloid transport; physical and retardation processes and the effects of perched water. In this AMR they document the capabilities of the UZ RTM, which can describe flow (saturated and/or unsaturated) and transport, and accounts for (a) advection, (b) molecular diffusion, (c) hydrodynamic dispersion (with full 3-D tensorial representation), (d) kinetic or equilibrium physical and/or chemical sorption (linear, Langmuir, Freundlich or combined), (e) first-order linear chemical reaction, (f) radioactive decay and tracking of daughters, (g) colloid filtration (equilibrium, kinetic or combined), and (h) colloid-assisted solute transport. Simulations of transport of radioactive solutes and colloids (incorporating the processes described above) from the repository horizon to the water table are performed to support model development and support studies for Performance Assessment (PA). The input files for these simulations include transport parameters obtained from other AMRs (i.e., CRWMS M and O 1999d, e, f, g, h; 2000a, b, c, d). When not available, the parameter values used are obtained from the literature. The results of the simulations are used to evaluate the transport of radioactive solutes and colloids, and
Modelling human eye under blast loading.
Esposito, L; Clemente, C; Bonora, N; Rossi, T
2015-01-01
Primary blast injury (PBI) is the general term that refers to injuries resulting from the mere interaction of a blast wave with the body. Although few instances of primary ocular blast injury, without a concomitant secondary blast injury from debris, are documented, some experimental studies demonstrate its occurrence. In order to investigate PBI to the eye, a finite element model of the human eye using simple constitutive models was developed. The material parameters were calibrated by a multi-objective optimisation performed on available eye impact test data. The behaviour of the human eye and the dynamics of mechanisms occurring under PBI loading conditions were modelled. For the generation of the blast waves, different combinations of explosive (trinitrotoluene) mass charge and distance from the eye were analysed. An interpretation of the resulting pressure, based on the propagation and reflection of the waves inside the eye bulb and orbit, is proposed. The peculiar geometry of the bony orbit (similar to a frustum cone) can induce a resonance cavity effect and generate a pressure standing wave potentially hurtful for eye tissues.
Modeling of porous concrete elements under load
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Demchyna B.H.
2017-12-01
Full Text Available It is known that cell concretes are almost immediately destroyed under load, having reached certain critical stresses. Such kind of destruction is called a “catastrophic failure”. Process of crack formation is one of the main factors, influencing process of concrete destruction. Modern theory of crack formation is mainly based on the Griffith theory of destruction. However, the mentioned theory does not completely correspond to the structure of cell concrete with its cell structure, because the theory is intended for a solid body. The article presents one of the possible variants of modelling of the structure of cell concrete and gives some assumptions concerning the process of crack formation in such hollow, not solid environment.
Modeling of porous concrete elements under load
Demchyna, B. H.; Famuliak, Yu. Ye.; Demchyna, Kh. B.
2017-12-01
It is known that cell concretes are almost immediately destroyed under load, having reached certain critical stresses. Such kind of destruction is called a "catastrophic failure". Process of crack formation is one of the main factors, influencing process of concrete destruction. Modern theory of crack formation is mainly based on the Griffith theory of destruction. However, the mentioned theory does not completely correspond to the structure of cell concrete with its cell structure, because the theory is intended for a solid body. The article presents one of the possible variants of modelling of the structure of cell concrete and gives some assumptions concerning the process of crack formation in such hollow, not solid environment.
Multitask Quantile Regression under the Transnormal Model.
Fan, Jianqing; Xue, Lingzhou; Zou, Hui
2016-01-01
We consider estimating multi-task quantile regression under the transnormal model, with focus on high-dimensional setting. We derive a surprisingly simple closed-form solution through rank-based covariance regularization. In particular, we propose the rank-based ℓ 1 penalization with positive definite constraints for estimating sparse covariance matrices, and the rank-based banded Cholesky decomposition regularization for estimating banded precision matrices. By taking advantage of alternating direction method of multipliers, nearest correlation matrix projection is introduced that inherits sampling properties of the unprojected one. Our work combines strengths of quantile regression and rank-based covariance regularization to simultaneously deal with nonlinearity and nonnormality for high-dimensional regression. Furthermore, the proposed method strikes a good balance between robustness and efficiency, achieves the "oracle"-like convergence rate, and provides the provable prediction interval under the high-dimensional setting. The finite-sample performance of the proposed method is also examined. The performance of our proposed rank-based method is demonstrated in a real application to analyze the protein mass spectroscopy data.
Trendel, Olivier; Werle, Carolina O C
2016-09-01
Eating behaviors largely result from automatic processes. Yet, in existing research, automatic or implicit attitudes toward food often fail to predict eating behaviors. Applying findings in cognitive neuroscience research, we propose and find that a central reason why implicit attitudes toward food are not good predictors of eating behaviors is that implicit attitudes are driven by two distinct constructs that often have diverging evaluative consequences: the automatic affective reactions to food (e.g., tastiness; the affective basis of implicit attitudes) and the automatic cognitive reactions to food (e.g., healthiness; the cognitive basis of implicit attitudes). More importantly, we find that the affective and cognitive bases of implicit attitudes directly and uniquely influence actual food choices under different conditions. While the affective basis of implicit attitude is the main driver of food choices, it is the only driver when cognitive resources during choice are limited. The cognitive basis of implicit attitudes uniquely influences food choices when cognitive resources during choice are plentiful but only for participants low in impulsivity. Researchers interested in automatic processes in eating behaviors could thus benefit by distinguishing between the affective and cognitive bases of implicit attitudes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Modelling of diurnal cycle under climate change
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Eliseev, A V; Bezmenov, K V; Demchenko, P F; Mokhov, I I; Petoukhov, V K [Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow (Russian Federation). Inst. of Atmospheric Physics
1996-12-31
The observed diurnal temperature range (DTR) displays remarkable change during last 30 years. Land air DTR generally decreases under global climate warming due to more significant night minimum temperature increase in comparison with day maximum temperature increase. Atmosphere hydrological cycle characteristics change under global warming and possible background aerosol atmosphere content change may cause essential errors in the estimation of DTR tendencies of change under global warming. The result of this study is the investigation of cloudiness effect on the DTR and blackbody radiative emissivity diurnal range. It is shown that in some cases (particularly in cold seasons) it results in opposite change in DTR and BD at doubled CO{sub 2} atmosphere content. The influence of background aerosol is the same as the cloudiness one
Modelling of diurnal cycle under climate change
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Eliseev, A.V.; Bezmenov, K.V.; Demchenko, P.F.; Mokhov, I.I.; Petoukhov, V.K. [Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow (Russian Federation). Inst. of Atmospheric Physics
1995-12-31
The observed diurnal temperature range (DTR) displays remarkable change during last 30 years. Land air DTR generally decreases under global climate warming due to more significant night minimum temperature increase in comparison with day maximum temperature increase. Atmosphere hydrological cycle characteristics change under global warming and possible background aerosol atmosphere content change may cause essential errors in the estimation of DTR tendencies of change under global warming. The result of this study is the investigation of cloudiness effect on the DTR and blackbody radiative emissivity diurnal range. It is shown that in some cases (particularly in cold seasons) it results in opposite change in DTR and BD at doubled CO{sub 2} atmosphere content. The influence of background aerosol is the same as the cloudiness one
Double diffusivity model under stochastic forcing
Chattopadhyay, Amit K.; Aifantis, Elias C.
2017-05-01
The "double diffusivity" model was proposed in the late 1970s, and reworked in the early 1980s, as a continuum counterpart to existing discrete models of diffusion corresponding to high diffusivity paths, such as grain boundaries and dislocation lines. It was later rejuvenated in the 1990s to interpret experimental results on diffusion in polycrystalline and nanocrystalline specimens where grain boundaries and triple grain boundary junctions act as high diffusivity paths. Technically, the model pans out as a system of coupled Fick-type diffusion equations to represent "regular" and "high" diffusivity paths with "source terms" accounting for the mass exchange between the two paths. The model remit was extended by analogy to describe flow in porous media with double porosity, as well as to model heat conduction in media with two nonequilibrium local temperature baths, e.g., ion and electron baths. Uncoupling of the two partial differential equations leads to a higher-ordered diffusion equation, solutions of which could be obtained in terms of classical diffusion equation solutions. Similar equations could also be derived within an "internal length" gradient (ILG) mechanics formulation applied to diffusion problems, i.e., by introducing nonlocal effects, together with inertia and viscosity, in a mechanics based formulation of diffusion theory. While being remarkably successful in studies related to various aspects of transport in inhomogeneous media with deterministic microstructures and nanostructures, its implications in the presence of stochasticity have not yet been considered. This issue becomes particularly important in the case of diffusion in nanopolycrystals whose deterministic ILG-based theoretical calculations predict a relaxation time that is only about one-tenth of the actual experimentally verified time scale. This article provides the "missing link" in this estimation by adding a vital element in the ILG structure, that of stochasticity, that takes into
Modeling heat stress under different environmental conditions.
Carabaño, M J; Logar, B; Bormann, J; Minet, J; Vanrobays, M-L; Díaz, C; Tychon, B; Gengler, N; Hammami, H
2016-05-01
Renewed interest in heat stress effects on livestock productivity derives from climate change, which is expected to increase temperatures and the frequency of extreme weather events. This study aimed at evaluating the effect of temperature and humidity on milk production in highly selected dairy cattle populations across 3 European regions differing in climate and production systems to detect differences and similarities that can be used to optimize heat stress (HS) effect modeling. Milk, fat, and protein test day data from official milk recording for 1999 to 2010 in 4 Holstein populations located in the Walloon Region of Belgium (BEL), Luxembourg (LUX), Slovenia (SLO), and southern Spain (SPA) were merged with temperature and humidity data provided by the state meteorological agencies. After merging, the number of test day records/cows per trait ranged from 686,726/49,655 in SLO to 1,982,047/136,746 in BEL. Values for the daily average and maximum temperature-humidity index (THIavg and THImax) ranges for THIavg/THImax were largest in SLO (22-74/28-84) and shortest in SPA (39-76/46-83). Change point techniques were used to determine comfort thresholds, which differed across traits and climatic regions. Milk yield showed an inverted U-shaped pattern of response across the THI scale with a HS threshold around 73 THImax units. For fat and protein, thresholds were lower than for milk yield and were shifted around 6 THI units toward larger values in SPA compared with the other countries. Fat showed lower HS thresholds than protein traits in all countries. The traditional broken line model was compared with quadratic and cubic fits of the pattern of response in production to increasing heat loads. A cubic polynomial model allowing for individual variation in patterns of response and THIavg as heat load measure showed the best statistical features. Higher/lower producing animals showed less/more persistent production (quantity and quality) across the THI scale. The
Animal behavior models of the mechanisms underlying antipsychotic atypicality.
Geyer, M.A.; Ellenbroek, B.A.
2003-01-01
This review describes the animal behavior models that provide insight into the mechanisms underlying the critical differences between the actions of typical vs. atypical antipsychotic drugs. Although many of these models are capable of differentiating between antipsychotic and other psychotropic
Bootstrap prediction and Bayesian prediction under misspecified models
Fushiki, Tadayoshi
2005-01-01
We consider a statistical prediction problem under misspecified models. In a sense, Bayesian prediction is an optimal prediction method when an assumed model is true. Bootstrap prediction is obtained by applying Breiman's `bagging' method to a plug-in prediction. Bootstrap prediction can be considered to be an approximation to the Bayesian prediction under the assumption that the model is true. However, in applications, there are frequently deviations from the assumed model. In this paper, bo...
Biological information systems: Evolution as cognition-based information management.
Miller, William B
2018-05-01
An alternative biological synthesis is presented that conceptualizes evolutionary biology as an epiphenomenon of integrated self-referential information management. Since all biological information has inherent ambiguity, the systematic assessment of information is required by living organisms to maintain self-identity and homeostatic equipoise in confrontation with environmental challenges. Through their self-referential attachment to information space, cells are the cornerstone of biological action. That individualized assessment of information space permits self-referential, self-organizing niche construction. That deployment of information and its subsequent selection enacted the dominant stable unicellular informational architectures whose biological expressions are the prokaryotic, archaeal, and eukaryotic unicellular forms. Multicellularity represents the collective appraisal of equivocal environmental information through a shared information space. This concerted action can be viewed as systematized information management to improve information quality for the maintenance of preferred homeostatic boundaries among the varied participants. When reiterated in successive scales, this same collaborative exchange of information yields macroscopic organisms as obligatory multicellular holobionts. Cognition-Based Evolution (CBE) upholds that assessment of information precedes biological action, and the deployment of information through integrative self-referential niche construction and natural cellular engineering antecedes selection. Therefore, evolutionary biology can be framed as a complex reciprocating interactome that consists of the assessment, communication, deployment and management of information by self-referential organisms at multiple scales in continuous confrontation with environmental stresses. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Pricing Participating Products under a Generalized Jump-Diffusion Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tak Kuen Siu
2008-01-01
Full Text Available We propose a model for valuing participating life insurance products under a generalized jump-diffusion model with a Markov-switching compensator. It also nests a number of important and popular models in finance, including the classes of jump-diffusion models and Markovian regime-switching models. The Esscher transform is employed to determine an equivalent martingale measure. Simulation experiments are conducted to illustrate the practical implementation of the model and to highlight some features that can be obtained from our model.
MODELING OF THE BEHAVIOUR REOLOGICHESKIH TEL UNDER DIFFERENT LAW NAGRUZHENIYA
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
V. V. Bendyukov
2014-01-01
Full Text Available The Offered model of the behaviour reologicheskogo bodies (the viscous-elasticity of the materia, designs or systems under controlling influence of the load, acting on given law for some time.
Modelling comonotonic group-life under dependent decrement causes
Wang, Dabuxilatu
2011-01-01
Comonotonicity had been a extreme case of dependency between random variables. This article consider an extension of single life model under multiple dependent decrement causes to the case of comonotonic group-life.
A sliding mode observer for hemodynamic characterization under modeling uncertainties
Zayane, Chadia; Laleg-Kirati, Taous-Meriem
2014-01-01
This paper addresses the case of physiological states reconstruction in a small region of the brain under modeling uncertainties. The misunderstood coupling between the cerebral blood volume and the oxygen extraction fraction has lead to a partial
A simplified model of choice behavior under uncertainty
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ching-Hung Lin
2016-08-01
Full Text Available The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT has been standardized as a clinical assessment tool (Bechara, 2007. Nonetheless, numerous research groups have attempted to modify IGT models to optimize parameters for predicting the choice behavior of normal controls and patients. A decade ago, most researchers considered the expected utility (EU model (Busemeyer and Stout, 2002 to be the optimal model for predicting choice behavior under uncertainty. However, in recent years, studies have demonstrated the prospect utility (PU models (Ahn et al., 2008 to be more effective than the EU models in the IGT. Nevertheless, after some preliminary tests, we propose that Ahn et al. (2008 PU model is not optimal due to some incompatible results between our behavioral and modeling data. This study aims to modify Ahn et al. (2008 PU model to a simplified model and collected 145 subjects’ IGT performance as the benchmark data for comparison. In our simplified PU model, the best goodness-of-fit was found mostly while α approaching zero. More specifically, we retested the key parameters α, λ , and A in the PU model. Notably, the power of influence of the parameters α, λ, and A has a hierarchical order in terms of manipulating the goodness-of-fit in the PU model. Additionally, we found that the parameters λ and A may be ineffective when the parameter α is close to zero in the PU model. The present simplified model demonstrated that decision makers mostly adopted the strategy of gain-stay-loss-shift rather than foreseeing the long-term outcome. However, there still have other behavioral variables that are not well revealed under these dynamic uncertainty situations. Therefore, the optimal behavioral models may not have been found. In short, the best model for predicting choice behavior under dynamic-uncertainty situations should be further evaluated.
A new model for friction under shock conditions
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dambakizi F.
2011-01-01
Full Text Available This article is aimed at the developpement of a new model for friction under shock conditions. Thanks to a subgrid model and a specific Coulomb friction law, it takes into account the interface temperature and deformation but also the influence of asperities when the contact pressure is relatively low (≤ 3 GPa.
Empirical Analysis of Farm Credit Risk under the Structure Model
Yan, Yan
2009-01-01
The study measures farm credit risk by using farm records collected by Farm Business Farm Management (FBFM) during the period 1995-2004. The study addresses the following questions: (1) whether farm's financial position is fully described by the structure model, (2) what are the determinants of farm capital structure under the structure model, (3)…
Damage Model of Reinforced Concrete Members under Cyclic Loading
Wei, Bo Chen; Zhang, Jing Shu; Zhang, Yin Hua; Zhou, Jia Lai
2018-06-01
Based on the Kumar damage model, a new damage model for reinforced concrete members is established in this paper. According to the damage characteristics of reinforced concrete members subjected to cyclic loading, four judgment conditions for determining the rationality of damage models are put forward. An ideal damage index (D) is supposed to vary within a scale of zero (no damage) to one (collapse). D should be a monotone increasing function which tends to increase in the case of the same displacement amplitude. As for members under large displacement amplitude loading, the growth rate of D should be greater than that of D under small amplitude displacement loading. Subsequently, the Park-Ang damage model, the Niu-Ren damage model, the Lu-Wang damage model and the proposed damage model are analyzed for 30 experimental reinforced concrete members, including slabs, walls, beams and columns. The results show that current damage models do not fully matches the reasonable judgment conditions, but the proposed damage model does. Therefore, a conclusion can be drawn that the proposed damage model can be used for evaluating and predicting damage performance of RC members under cyclic loading.
Estimating true evolutionary distances under the DCJ model.
Lin, Yu; Moret, Bernard M E
2008-07-01
Modern techniques can yield the ordering and strandedness of genes on each chromosome of a genome; such data already exists for hundreds of organisms. The evolutionary mechanisms through which the set of the genes of an organism is altered and reordered are of great interest to systematists, evolutionary biologists, comparative genomicists and biomedical researchers. Perhaps the most basic concept in this area is that of evolutionary distance between two genomes: under a given model of genomic evolution, how many events most likely took place to account for the difference between the two genomes? We present a method to estimate the true evolutionary distance between two genomes under the 'double-cut-and-join' (DCJ) model of genome rearrangement, a model under which a single multichromosomal operation accounts for all genomic rearrangement events: inversion, transposition, translocation, block interchange and chromosomal fusion and fission. Our method relies on a simple structural characterization of a genome pair and is both analytically and computationally tractable. We provide analytical results to describe the asymptotic behavior of genomes under the DCJ model, as well as experimental results on a wide variety of genome structures to exemplify the very high accuracy (and low variance) of our estimator. Our results provide a tool for accurate phylogenetic reconstruction from multichromosomal gene rearrangement data as well as a theoretical basis for refinements of the DCJ model to account for biological constraints. All of our software is available in source form under GPL at http://lcbb.epfl.ch.
One-dimensional models of thermal activation under shear stress
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Nabarro, FRN
2003-01-01
Full Text Available - dimensional models presented here may illuminate the study of more realistic models. For the model in which as many dislocations are poised for backward jumps as for forward jumps, the experimental activation volume Vye(C27a) under applied stresses close to C...27a is different from the true activation volume V(C27) evaluated at C27 ?C27a. The relations between the two are developed. A model is then discussed in which fewer dislocations are available for backward than for forward jumps. Finally...
Generative models versus underlying symmetries to explain biological pattern.
Frank, S A
2014-06-01
Mathematical models play an increasingly important role in the interpretation of biological experiments. Studies often present a model that generates the observations, connecting hypothesized process to an observed pattern. Such generative models confirm the plausibility of an explanation and make testable hypotheses for further experiments. However, studies rarely consider the broad family of alternative models that match the same observed pattern. The symmetries that define the broad class of matching models are in fact the only aspects of information truly revealed by observed pattern. Commonly observed patterns derive from simple underlying symmetries. This article illustrates the problem by showing the symmetry associated with the observed rate of increase in fitness in a constant environment. That underlying symmetry reveals how each particular generative model defines a single example within the broad class of matching models. Further progress on the relation between pattern and process requires deeper consideration of the underlying symmetries. © 2014 The Author. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2014 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.
Partitioning uncertainty in streamflow projections under nonstationary model conditions
Chawla, Ila; Mujumdar, P. P.
2018-02-01
Assessing the impacts of Land Use (LU) and climate change on future streamflow projections is necessary for efficient management of water resources. However, model projections are burdened with significant uncertainty arising from various sources. Most of the previous studies have considered climate models and scenarios as major sources of uncertainty, but uncertainties introduced by land use change and hydrologic model assumptions are rarely investigated. In this paper an attempt is made to segregate the contribution from (i) general circulation models (GCMs), (ii) emission scenarios, (iii) land use scenarios, (iv) stationarity assumption of the hydrologic model, and (v) internal variability of the processes, to overall uncertainty in streamflow projections using analysis of variance (ANOVA) approach. Generally, most of the impact assessment studies are carried out with unchanging hydrologic model parameters in future. It is, however, necessary to address the nonstationarity in model parameters with changing land use and climate. In this paper, a regression based methodology is presented to obtain the hydrologic model parameters with changing land use and climate scenarios in future. The Upper Ganga Basin (UGB) in India is used as a case study to demonstrate the methodology. The semi-distributed Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model is set-up over the basin, under nonstationary conditions. Results indicate that model parameters vary with time, thereby invalidating the often-used assumption of model stationarity. The streamflow in UGB under the nonstationary model condition is found to reduce in future. The flows are also found to be sensitive to changes in land use. Segregation results suggest that model stationarity assumption and GCMs along with their interactions with emission scenarios, act as dominant sources of uncertainty. This paper provides a generalized framework for hydrologists to examine stationarity assumption of models before considering them
Modelling human behaviours and reactions under dangerous environment
Kang, J; Wright, D K; Qin, S F; Zhao, Y
2005-01-01
This paper describes the framework of a real-time simulation system to model human behavior and reactions in dangerous environments. The system utilizes the latest 3D computer animation techniques, combined with artificial intelligence, robotics and psychology, to model human behavior, reactions and decision making under expected/unexpected dangers in real-time in virtual environments. The development of the system includes: classification on the conscious/subconscious behaviors and reactions...
Numerical solution of dynamic equilibrium models under Poisson uncertainty
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Posch, Olaf; Trimborn, Timo
2013-01-01
We propose a simple and powerful numerical algorithm to compute the transition process in continuous-time dynamic equilibrium models with rare events. In this paper we transform the dynamic system of stochastic differential equations into a system of functional differential equations of the retar...... solution to Lucas' endogenous growth model under Poisson uncertainty are used to compute the exact numerical error. We show how (potential) catastrophic events such as rare natural disasters substantially affect the economic decisions of households....
Road Impedance Model Study under the Control of Intersection Signal
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yunlin Luo
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Road traffic impedance model is a difficult and critical point in urban traffic assignment and route guidance. The paper takes a signalized intersection as the research object. On the basis of traditional traffic wave theory including the implementation of traffic wave model and the analysis of vehicles’ gathering and dissipating, the road traffic impedance model is researched by determining the basic travel time and waiting delay time. Numerical example results have proved that the proposed model in this paper has received better calculation performance compared to existing model, especially in flat hours. The values of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE and mean absolute deviation (MAD are separately reduced by 3.78% and 2.62 s. It shows that the proposed model has feasibility and availability in road traffic impedance under intersection signal.
A Dual System Model of Preferences under Risk
Mukherjee, Kanchan
2010-01-01
This article presents a dual system model (DSM) of decision making under risk and uncertainty according to which the value of a gamble is a combination of the values assigned to it independently by the affective and deliberative systems. On the basis of research on dual process theories and empirical research in Hsee and Rottenstreich (2004) and…
Line and lattice networks under deterministic interference models
Goseling, Jasper; Gastpar, Michael; Weber, Jos H.
Capacity bounds are compared for four different deterministic models of wireless networks, representing four different ways of handling broadcast and superposition in the physical layer. In particular, the transport capacity under a multiple unicast traffic pattern is studied for a 1-D network of
Quantifying credit portfolio losses under multi-factor models
G. Colldeforns-Papiol (Gemma); L. Ortiz Gracia (Luis); C.W. Oosterlee (Kees)
2018-01-01
textabstractIn this work, we investigate the challenging problem of estimating credit risk measures of portfolios with exposure concentration under the multi-factor Gaussian and multi-factor t-copula models. It is well-known that Monte Carlo (MC) methods are highly demanding from the computational
Stochastic Online Learning in Dynamic Networks under Unknown Models
2016-08-02
The key is to develop online learning strategies at each individual node. Specifically, through local information exchange with its neighbors, each...infinitely repeated game with incomplete information and developed a dynamic pricing strategy referred to as Competitive and Cooperative Demand Learning...Stochastic Online Learning in Dynamic Networks under Unknown Models This research aims to develop fundamental theories and practical algorithms for
UNDER GRADUATE RESEARCH An alternative model of doing ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. UNDER GRADUATE RESEARCH An alternative model of doing science. The main work force is undergraduate students. Using research as a tool in education. Advantages : High risk tolerance. Infinite energy. Uninhibited lateral thinking. Problems: Japanese ...
A flexible model for actuarial risks under dependence
Albers, Willem/Wim; Kallenberg, W.C.M.; Lukocius, V.
Methods for computing risk measures, such as stop-loss premiums, tacitly assume independence of the underlying individual risks. This can lead to huge errors even when only small dependencies occur. In the present paper, a general model is developed which covers what happens in practice in a
A CHF Model in Narrow Gaps under Saturated Boiling
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Park, Suki; Kim, Hyeonil; Park, Cheol
2014-01-01
Many researchers have paid a great attention to the CHF in narrow gaps due to enormous industrial applications. Especially, a great number of researches on the CHF have been carried out in relation to nuclear safety issues such as in-vessel retention for nuclear power plants during a severe accident. Analytical studies to predict the CHF in narrow gaps have been also reported. Yu et al. (2012) developed an analytical model to predict the CHF on downward facing and inclined heaters based on the model of Kandlikar et al. (2001) for an upward facing heater. A new theoretical model is developed to predict the CHF in narrow gaps under saturated pool boiling. This model is applicable when one side of coolant channels or both sides are heated including the effects of heater orientation. The present model is compared with the experimental CHF data obtained in narrow gaps. A new analytical CHF model is proposed to predict CHF for narrow gaps under saturated pool boiling. This model can be applied to one-side or two-sides heating surface and also consider the effects of heater orientation on CHF. The present model is compared with the experimental data obtained in narrow gaps with one heater. The comparisons indicate that the present model shows a good agreement with the experimental CHF data in the horizontal annular tubes. However, it generally under-predicts the experimental data in the narrow rectangular gaps except the data obtained in the gap thickness of 10 mm and the horizontal downward facing heater
Switching performance of OBS network model under prefetched real traffic
Huang, Zhenhua; Xu, Du; Lei, Wen
2005-11-01
Optical Burst Switching (OBS) [1] is now widely considered as an efficient switching technique in building the next generation optical Internet .So it's very important to precisely evaluate the performance of the OBS network model. The performance of the OBS network model is variable in different condition, but the most important thing is that how it works under real traffic load. In the traditional simulation models, uniform traffics are usually generated by simulation software to imitate the data source of the edge node in the OBS network model, and through which the performance of the OBS network is evaluated. Unfortunately, without being simulated by real traffic, the traditional simulation models have several problems and their results are doubtable. To deal with this problem, we present a new simulation model for analysis and performance evaluation of the OBS network, which uses prefetched IP traffic to be data source of the OBS network model. The prefetched IP traffic can be considered as real IP source of the OBS edge node and the OBS network model has the same clock rate with a real OBS system. So it's easy to conclude that this model is closer to the real OBS system than the traditional ones. The simulation results also indicate that this model is more accurate to evaluate the performance of the OBS network system and the results of this model are closer to the actual situation.
Verification of the karst flow model under laboratory controlled conditions
Gotovac, Hrvoje; Andric, Ivo; Malenica, Luka; Srzic, Veljko
2016-04-01
Karst aquifers are very important groundwater resources around the world as well as in coastal part of Croatia. They consist of extremely complex structure defining by slow and laminar porous medium and small fissures and usually fast turbulent conduits/karst channels. Except simple lumped hydrological models that ignore high karst heterogeneity, full hydraulic (distributive) models have been developed exclusively by conventional finite element and finite volume elements considering complete karst heterogeneity structure that improves our understanding of complex processes in karst. Groundwater flow modeling in complex karst aquifers are faced by many difficulties such as a lack of heterogeneity knowledge (especially conduits), resolution of different spatial/temporal scales, connectivity between matrix and conduits, setting of appropriate boundary conditions and many others. Particular problem of karst flow modeling is verification of distributive models under real aquifer conditions due to lack of above-mentioned information. Therefore, we will show here possibility to verify karst flow models under the laboratory controlled conditions. Special 3-D karst flow model (5.6*2.6*2 m) consists of concrete construction, rainfall platform, 74 piezometers, 2 reservoirs and other supply equipment. Model is filled by fine sand (3-D porous matrix) and drainage plastic pipes (1-D conduits). This model enables knowledge of full heterogeneity structure including position of different sand layers as well as conduits location and geometry. Moreover, we know geometry of conduits perforation that enable analysis of interaction between matrix and conduits. In addition, pressure and precipitation distribution and discharge flow rates from both phases can be measured very accurately. These possibilities are not present in real sites what this model makes much more useful for karst flow modeling. Many experiments were performed under different controlled conditions such as different
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
J.K. Jolayemi
2014-01-01
Full Text Available A zero-one mixed integer linear programming model is developed for the scheduling of projects under the condition of inflation and under penalty and reward arrangements. The effects of inflation on time-cost trade-off curves are illustrated and a modified approach to time-cost trade-off analysis presented. Numerical examples are given to illustrate the model and its properties. The examples show that misleading schedules and inaccurate project-cost estimates will be produced if the inflation factor is neglected in an environment of high inflation. They also show that award of penalty or bonus is a catalyst for early completion of a project, just as it can be expected.
Generic distortion model for metrology under optical microscopes
Liu, Xingjian; Li, Zhongwei; Zhong, Kai; Chao, YuhJin; Miraldo, Pedro; Shi, Yusheng
2018-04-01
For metrology under optical microscopes, lens distortion is the dominant source of error. Previous distortion models and correction methods mostly rely on the assumption that parametric distortion models require a priori knowledge of the microscopes' lens systems. However, because of the numerous optical elements in a microscope, distortions can be hardly represented by a simple parametric model. In this paper, a generic distortion model considering both symmetric and asymmetric distortions is developed. Such a model is obtained by using radial basis functions (RBFs) to interpolate the radius and distortion values of symmetric distortions (image coordinates and distortion rays for asymmetric distortions). An accurate and easy to implement distortion correction method is presented. With the proposed approach, quantitative measurement with better accuracy can be achieved, such as in Digital Image Correlation for deformation measurement when used with an optical microscope. The proposed technique is verified by both synthetic and real data experiments.
Misleading prioritizations from modelling range shifts under climate change
Sofaer, Helen R.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Flather, Curtis H.
2018-01-01
AimConservation planning requires the prioritization of a subset of taxa and geographical locations to focus monitoring and management efforts. Integration of the threats and opportunities posed by climate change often relies on predictions from species distribution models, particularly for assessments of vulnerability or invasion risk for multiple taxa. We evaluated whether species distribution models could reliably rank changes in species range size under climate and land use change.LocationConterminous U.S.A.Time period1977–2014.Major taxa studiedPasserine birds.MethodsWe estimated ensembles of species distribution models based on historical North American Breeding Bird Survey occurrences for 190 songbirds, and generated predictions to recent years given c. 35 years of observed land use and climate change. We evaluated model predictions using standard metrics of discrimination performance and a more detailed assessment of the ability of models to rank species vulnerability to climate change based on predicted range loss, range gain, and overall change in range size.ResultsSpecies distribution models yielded unreliable and misleading assessments of relative vulnerability to climate and land use change. Models could not accurately predict range expansion or contraction, and therefore failed to anticipate patterns of range change among species. These failures occurred despite excellent overall discrimination ability and transferability to the validation time period, which reflected strong performance at the majority of locations that were either always or never occupied by each species.Main conclusionsModels failed for the questions and at the locations of greatest interest to conservation and management. This highlights potential pitfalls of multi-taxa impact assessments under global change; in our case, models provided misleading rankings of the most impacted species, and spatial information about range changes was not credible. As modelling methods and
Modelling ecosystem service flows under uncertainty with stochiastic SPAN
Johnson, Gary W.; Snapp, Robert R.; Villa, Ferdinando; Bagstad, Kenneth J.
2012-01-01
Ecosystem service models are increasingly in demand for decision making. However, the data required to run these models are often patchy, missing, outdated, or untrustworthy. Further, communication of data and model uncertainty to decision makers is often either absent or unintuitive. In this work, we introduce a systematic approach to addressing both the data gap and the difﬁculty in communicating uncertainty through a stochastic adaptation of the Service Path Attribution Networks (SPAN) framework. The SPAN formalism assesses ecosystem services through a set of up to 16 maps, which characterize the services in a study area in terms of ﬂow pathways between ecosystems and human beneﬁciaries. Although the SPAN algorithms were originally deﬁned deterministically, we present them here in a stochastic framework which combines probabilistic input data with a stochastic transport model in order to generate probabilistic spatial outputs. This enables a novel feature among ecosystem service models: the ability to spatially visualize uncertainty in the model results. The stochastic SPAN model can analyze areas where data limitations are prohibitive for deterministic models. Greater uncertainty in the model inputs (including missing data) should lead to greater uncertainty expressed in the model’s output distributions. By using Bayesian belief networks to ﬁll data gaps and expert-provided trust assignments to augment untrustworthy or outdated information, we can account for uncertainty in input data, producing a model that is still able to run and provide information where strictly deterministic models could not. Taken together, these attributes enable more robust and intuitive modelling of ecosystem services under uncertainty.
A dual system model of preferences under risk.
Mukherjee, Kanchan
2010-01-01
This article presents a dual system model (DSM) of decision making under risk and uncertainty according to which the value of a gamble is a combination of the values assigned to it independently by the affective and deliberative systems. On the basis of research on dual process theories and empirical research in Hsee and Rottenstreich (2004) and Rottenstreich and Hsee (2001) among others, the DSM incorporates (a) individual differences in disposition to rational versus emotional decision making, (b) the affective nature of outcomes, and (c) different task construals within its framework. The model has good descriptive validity and accounts for (a) violation of nontransparent stochastic dominance, (b) fourfold pattern of risk attitudes, (c) ambiguity aversion, (d) common consequence effect, (e) common ratio effect, (f) isolation effect, and (g) coalescing and event-splitting effects. The DSM is also used to make several novel predictions of conditions under which specific behavior patterns may or may not occur.
Mathematical modelling of unglazed solar collectors under extreme operating conditions
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bunea, M.; Perers, Bengt; Eicher, S.
2015-01-01
average temperature levels at the evaporator. Simulation of these systems requires a collector model that can take into account operation at very low temperatures (below freezing) and under various weather conditions, particularly operation without solar irradiation.A solar collector mathematical model......Combined heat pumps and solar collectors got a renewed interest on the heating system market worldwide. Connected to the heat pump evaporator, unglazed solar collectors can considerably increase their efficiency, but they also raise the coefficient of performance of the heat pump with higher...... was found due to the condensation phenomenon and up to 40% due to frost under no solar irradiation. This work also points out the influence of the operating conditions on the collector's characteristics.Based on experiments carried out at a test facility, every heat flux on the absorber was separately...
Grain breakage under uniaxial compression, through 3D DEM modelling
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nader François
2017-01-01
Full Text Available A breakable grain model is presented, using the concept of particles assembly. Grains of polyhedral shapes are generated, formed by joining together tetrahedral subgrains using cohesive bonds. Single grain crushing simulations are performed for multiple values of the intra-granular cohesion to study the effect on the grain’s strength. The same effect of intra-granular cohesion is studied under oedometric compression on samples of around 800 grains, which allows the evaluation of grain breakage model on the macroscopic behaviour. Grain size distribution curves and grain breakage ratios are monitored throughout the simulations.
A sliding mode observer for hemodynamic characterization under modeling uncertainties
Zayane, Chadia
2014-06-01
This paper addresses the case of physiological states reconstruction in a small region of the brain under modeling uncertainties. The misunderstood coupling between the cerebral blood volume and the oxygen extraction fraction has lead to a partial knowledge of the so-called balloon model describing the hemodynamic behavior of the brain. To overcome this difficulty, a High Order Sliding Mode observer is applied to the balloon system, where the unknown coupling is considered as an internal perturbation. The effectiveness of the proposed method is illustrated through a set of synthetic data that mimic fMRI experiments.
Model analyses for sustainable energy supply under CO2 restrictions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Matsuhashi, Ryuji; Ishitani, Hisashi.
1995-01-01
This paper aims at clarifying key points for realizing sustainable energy supply under restrictions on CO 2 emissions. For this purpose, possibility of solar breeding system is investigated as a key technology for the sustainable energy supply. The authors describe their mathematical model simulating global energy supply and demand in ultra-long term. Depletion of non-renewable resources and constraints on CO 2 emissions are taken into consideration in the model. Computed results have shown that present energy system based on non-renewable resources shifts to a system based on renewable resources in the ultra-long term with appropriate incentives
On the renewal risk model under a threshold strategy
Dong, Yinghui; Wang, Guojing; Yuen, Kam C.
2009-08-01
In this paper, we consider the renewal risk process under a threshold dividend payment strategy. For this model, the expected discounted dividend payments and the Gerber-Shiu expected discounted penalty function are investigated. Integral equations, integro-differential equations and some closed form expressions for them are derived. When the claims are exponentially distributed, it is verified that the expected penalty of the deficit at ruin is proportional to the ruin probability.
Modeling human behaviors and reactions under dangerous environment.
Kang, J; Wright, D K; Qin, S F; Zhao, Y
2005-01-01
This paper describes the framework of a real-time simulation system to model human behavior and reactions in dangerous environments. The system utilizes the latest 3D computer animation techniques, combined with artificial intelligence, robotics and psychology, to model human behavior, reactions and decision making under expected/unexpected dangers in real-time in virtual environments. The development of the system includes: classification on the conscious/subconscious behaviors and reactions of different people; capturing different motion postures by the Eagle Digital System; establishing 3D character animation models; establishing 3D models for the scene; planning the scenario and the contents; and programming within Virtools Dev. Programming within Virtools Dev is subdivided into modeling dangerous events, modeling character's perceptions, modeling character's decision making, modeling character's movements, modeling character's interaction with environment and setting up the virtual cameras. The real-time simulation of human reactions in hazardous environments is invaluable in military defense, fire escape, rescue operation planning, traffic safety studies, and safety planning in chemical factories, the design of buildings, airplanes, ships and trains. Currently, human motion modeling can be realized through established technology, whereas to integrate perception and intelligence into virtual human's motion is still a huge undertaking. The challenges here are the synchronization of motion and intelligence, the accurate modeling of human's vision, smell, touch and hearing, the diversity and effects of emotion and personality in decision making. There are three types of software platforms which could be employed to realize the motion and intelligence within one system, and their advantages and disadvantages are discussed.
The transferability of hydrological models under nonstationary climatic conditions
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
C. Z. Li
2012-04-01
Full Text Available This paper investigates issues involved in calibrating hydrological models against observed data when the aim of the modelling is to predict future runoff under different climatic conditions. To achieve this objective, we tested two hydrological models, DWBM and SIMHYD, using data from 30 unimpaired catchments in Australia which had at least 60 yr of daily precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PET, and streamflow data. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE, modified index of agreement (d_{1} and water balance error (WBE were used as performance criteria. We used a differential split-sample test to split up the data into 120 sub-periods and 4 different climatic sub-periods in order to assess how well the calibrated model could be transferred different periods. For each catchment, the models were calibrated for one sub-period and validated on the other three. Monte Carlo simulation was used to explore parameter stability compared to historic climatic variability. The chi-square test was used to measure the relationship between the distribution of the parameters and hydroclimatic variability. The results showed that the performance of the two hydrological models differed and depended on the model calibration. We found that if a hydrological model is set up to simulate runoff for a wet climate scenario then it should be calibrated on a wet segment of the historic record, and similarly a dry segment should be used for a dry climate scenario. The Monte Carlo simulation provides an effective and pragmatic approach to explore uncertainty and equifinality in hydrological model parameters. Some parameters of the hydrological models are shown to be significantly more sensitive to the choice of calibration periods. Our findings support the idea that when using conceptual hydrological models to assess future climate change impacts, a differential split-sample test and Monte Carlo simulation should be used to quantify uncertainties due to
Electricity pricing model in thermal generating stations under deregulation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Reji, P.; Ashok, S.; Moideenkutty, K.M.
2007-01-01
In regulated public utilities with competitive power markets, deregulation has replaced the monopoly. Under the deregulated power market, the electricity price primarily depends on market mechanism and power demand. In this market, generators generally follow marginal pricing. Each generator fixes the electricity price based on their pricing strategy and it leads to more price volatility. This paper proposed a model to determine the electricity price considering all operational constraints of the plant and economic variables that influenced the price, for a thermal generating station under deregulation. The purpose of the model was to assist existing stations, investors in the power sector, regulatory authorities, transmission utilities, and new power generators in decision-making. The model could accommodate price volatility in the market and was based on performance incentive/penalty considering plant load factor, availability of the plant and peak/ off peak demand. The model was applied as a case study to a typical thermal utility in India to determine the electricity price. It was concluded that the case study of a thermal generating station in a deregulated environment showed that the electricity price mainly depended on the gross calorific value (GCV) of fuel, mode of operation, price of the fuel, and operating charges. 11 refs., 2 tabs., 1 fig
Modeling cascading failures in interdependent infrastructures under terrorist attacks
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wu, Baichao; Tang, Aiping; Wu, Jie
2016-01-01
An attack strength degradation model has been introduced to further capture the interdependencies among infrastructures and model cascading failures across infrastructures when terrorist attacks occur. A medium-sized energy system including oil network and power network is selected for exploring the vulnerabilities from independent networks to interdependent networks, considering the structural vulnerability and the functional vulnerability. Two types of interdependencies among critical infrastructures are involved in this paper: physical interdependencies and geographical interdependencies, shown by tunable parameters based on the probabilities of failures of nodes in the networks. In this paper, a tolerance parameter α is used to evaluation of the overloads of the substations based on power flow redistribution in power transmission systems under the attack. The results of simulation show that the independent networks or interdependent networks will be collapsed when only a small fraction of nodes are attacked under the attack strength degradation model, especially for the interdependent networks. The methodology introduced in this paper with physical interdependencies and geographical interdependencies involved in can be applied to analyze the vulnerability of the interdependent infrastructures further, and provides the insights of vulnerability of interdependent infrastructures to mitigation actions for critical infrastructure protections. - Highlights: • An attack strength degradation model based on the specified locations has been introduced. • Interdependencies considering both physical and geographical have been analyzed. • The structural vulnerability and the functional vulnerability have been considered.
Modeling thermophysical properties of food under high pressure.
Otero, L; Guignon, B; Aparicio, C; Sanz, P D
2010-04-01
A set of well-known generic models to predict the thermophysical properties of food from its composition at atmospheric conditions was adapted to work at any pressure. The suitability of the models was assessed using data from the literature for four different food products, namely tomato paste, potato, pork, and cod. When the composition of the product considered was not known, an alternative was proposed if some thermal data at atmospheric conditions were available. Since knowledge on the initial freezing point and ice content of food are essential for the correct prediction of its thermal properties, models for obtaining these properties under pressure were also included. Our results showed that good predictions under pressure, accurate enough for most engineering calculations can be made, either from composition data or using known thermal data of the food considered at atmospheric conditions. All the equations and coefficients needed to construct the models are given throughout the text, thus readers can compose their own routines. However, these routines can also be downloaded free at http://www.if.csic.es/programas/ifiform.htm as executable programs running in Windows.
Modeling Malaria Vector Distribution under Climate Change Scenarios in Kenya
Ngaina, J. N.
2017-12-01
Projecting the distribution of malaria vectors under climate change is essential for planning integrated vector control strategies for sustaining elimination and preventing reintroduction of malaria. However, in Kenya, little knowledge exists on the possible effects of climate change on malaria vectors. Here we assess the potential impact of future climate change on locally dominant Anopheles vectors including Anopheles gambiae, Anopheles arabiensis, Anopheles merus, Anopheles funestus, Anopheles pharoensis and Anopheles nili. Environmental data (Climate, Land cover and elevation) and primary empirical geo-located species-presence data were identified. The principle of maximum entropy (Maxent) was used to model the species' potential distribution area under paleoclimate, current and future climates. The Maxent model was highly accurate with a statistically significant AUC value. Simulation-based estimates suggest that the environmentally suitable area (ESA) for Anopheles gambiae, An. arabiensis, An. funestus and An. pharoensis would increase under all two scenarios for mid-century (2016-2045), but decrease for end century (2071-2100). An increase in ESA of An. Funestus was estimated under medium stabilizing (RCP4.5) and very heavy (RCP8.5) emission scenarios for mid-century. Our findings can be applied in various ways such as the identification of additional localities where Anopheles malaria vectors may already exist, but has not yet been detected and the recognition of localities where it is likely to spread to. Moreover, it will help guide future sampling location decisions, help with the planning of vector control suites nationally and encourage broader research inquiry into vector species niche modeling
Incentive salience attribution under reward uncertainty: A Pavlovian model.
Anselme, Patrick
2015-02-01
There is a vast literature on the behavioural effects of partial reinforcement in Pavlovian conditioning. Compared with animals receiving continuous reinforcement, partially rewarded animals typically show (a) a slower development of the conditioned response (CR) early in training and (b) a higher asymptotic level of the CR later in training. This phenomenon is known as the partial reinforcement acquisition effect (PRAE). Learning models of Pavlovian conditioning fail to account for it. In accordance with the incentive salience hypothesis, it is here argued that incentive motivation (or 'wanting') plays a more direct role in controlling behaviour than does learning, and reward uncertainty is shown to have an excitatory effect on incentive motivation. The psychological origin of that effect is discussed and a computational model integrating this new interpretation is developed. Many features of CRs under partial reinforcement emerge from this model. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Computational modeling for hexcan failure under core distruptive accidental conditions
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Sawada, T.; Ninokata, H.; Shimizu, A. [Tokyo Institute of Technology (Japan)
1995-09-01
This paper describes the development of computational modeling for hexcan wall failures under core disruptive accident conditions of fast breeder reactors. A series of out-of-pile experiments named SIMBATH has been analyzed by using the SIMMER-II code. The SIMBATH experiments were performed at KfK in Germany. The experiments used a thermite mixture to simulate fuel. The test geometry of SIMBATH ranged from single pin to 37-pin bundles. In this study, phenomena of hexcan wall failure found in a SIMBATH test were analyzed by SIMMER-II. Although the original model of SIMMER-II did not calculate any hexcan failure, several simple modifications made it possible to reproduce the hexcan wall melt-through observed in the experiment. In this paper the modifications and their significance are discussed for further modeling improvements.
Assessment of interfacial heat transfer models under subcooled flow boiling
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ribeiro, Guilherme B.; Braz Filho, Francisco A., E-mail: gbribeiro@ieav.cta.br, E-mail: fbraz@ieav.cta.br [Instituto de Estudos Avançados (DCTA/IEAv), São José dos Campos, SP (Brazil). Div. de Energia Nuclear
2017-07-01
The present study concerns a detailed analysis of subcooled flow boiling characteristics under high pressure systems using a two-fluid Eulerian approach provided by a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) solver. For this purpose, a vertical heated pipe made of stainless steel with an internal diameter of 15.4 mm was considered as the modeled domain. An uniform heat flux of 570 kW/m2 and saturation pressure of 4.5 MPa were applied to the channel wall, whereas water mass flux of 900 kg/m2s was considered for all simulation cases. The model was validated against a set of experimental data and results have indicated a promising use of CFD technique for the estimation of wall temperature, the liquid bulk temperature and the location of the departure of nucleate boiling. Different sub-models of interfacial heat transfer coefficient were applied and compared, allowing a better prediction of void fraction along the heated channel. (author)
Modelling magnetic laminations under arbitrary starting state and flux waveform
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bottauscio, Oriano; Chiampi, Mario; Ragusa, Carlo
2005-01-01
A numerical model able to predict the behaviour of a magnetic sheet under arbitrary supply conditions has been developed. The electromagnetic field problem is formulated in terms of an electric vector potential, which provides the magnetic field strength evolution. The hysteretic behaviour of the material is represented through the dynamic Preisach model where the activation law of the bi-state operators is modified in order to guarantee a smooth response. The problem has been solved through a time step procedure using the fixed Point technique for handling nonlinearity. The model has been validated by comparison with suitable experiments and it is applied to the investigation of the influence of the materials' starting state on the magnetic behaviour
CONSISTENCY UNDER SAMPLING OF EXPONENTIAL RANDOM GRAPH MODELS.
Shalizi, Cosma Rohilla; Rinaldo, Alessandro
2013-04-01
The growing availability of network data and of scientific interest in distributed systems has led to the rapid development of statistical models of network structure. Typically, however, these are models for the entire network, while the data consists only of a sampled sub-network. Parameters for the whole network, which is what is of interest, are estimated by applying the model to the sub-network. This assumes that the model is consistent under sampling , or, in terms of the theory of stochastic processes, that it defines a projective family. Focusing on the popular class of exponential random graph models (ERGMs), we show that this apparently trivial condition is in fact violated by many popular and scientifically appealing models, and that satisfying it drastically limits ERGM's expressive power. These results are actually special cases of more general results about exponential families of dependent random variables, which we also prove. Using such results, we offer easily checked conditions for the consistency of maximum likelihood estimation in ERGMs, and discuss some possible constructive responses.
Modeling the Propagation of Mobile Phone Virus under Complex Network
Yang, Wei; Wei, Xi-liang; Guo, Hao; An, Gang; Guo, Lei
2014-01-01
Mobile phone virus is a rogue program written to propagate from one phone to another, which can take control of a mobile device by exploiting its vulnerabilities. In this paper the propagation model of mobile phone virus is tackled to understand how particular factors can affect its propagation and design effective containment strategies to suppress mobile phone virus. Two different propagation models of mobile phone viruses under the complex network are proposed in this paper. One is intended to describe the propagation of user-tricking virus, and the other is to describe the propagation of the vulnerability-exploiting virus. Based on the traditional epidemic models, the characteristics of mobile phone viruses and the network topology structure are incorporated into our models. A detailed analysis is conducted to analyze the propagation models. Through analysis, the stable infection-free equilibrium point and the stability condition are derived. Finally, considering the network topology, the numerical and simulation experiments are carried out. Results indicate that both models are correct and suitable for describing the spread of two different mobile phone viruses, respectively. PMID:25133209
Outdoor FSO Communications Under Fog: Attenuation Modeling and Performance Evaluation
Esmail, Maged Abdullah
2016-07-18
Fog is considered to be a primary challenge for free space optics (FSO) systems. It may cause attenuation that is up to hundreds of decibels per kilometer. Hence, accurate modeling of fog attenuation will help telecommunication operators to engineer and appropriately manage their networks. In this paper, we examine fog measurement data coming from several locations in Europe and the United States and derive a unified channel attenuation model. Compared with existing attenuation models, our proposed model achieves a minimum of 9 dB, which is lower than the average root-mean-square error (RMSE). Moreover, we have investigated the statistical behavior of the channel and developed a probabilistic model under stochastic fog conditions. Furthermore, we studied the performance of the FSO system addressing various performance metrics, including signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), bit-error rate (BER), and channel capacity. Our results show that in communication environments with frequent fog, FSO is typically a short-range data transmission technology. Therefore, FSO will have its preferred market segment in future wireless fifth-generation/sixth-generation (5G/6G) networks having cell sizes that are lower than a 1-km diameter. Moreover, the results of our modeling and analysis can be applied in determining the switching/thresholding conditions in highly reliable hybrid FSO/radio-frequency (RF) networks.
Thermal modelling of PV module performance under high ambient temperatures
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Diarra, D.C.; Harrison, S.J. [Queen' s Univ., Kingston, ON (Canada). Dept. of Mechanical and Materials Engineering Solar Calorimetry Lab; Akuffo, F.O. [Kwame Nkrumah Univ. of Science and Technology, Kumasi (Ghana). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering
2005-07-01
When predicting the performance of photovoltaic (PV) generators, the actual performance is typically lower than test results conducted under standard test conditions because the radiant energy absorbed in the module under normal operation raises the temperature of the cell and other multilayer components. The increase in temperature translates to a lower conversion efficiency of the solar cells. In order to address these discrepancies, a thermal model of a characteristic PV module was developed to assess and predict its performance under real field-conditions. The PV module consisted of monocrystalline silicon cells in EVA between a glass cover and a tedlar backing sheet. The EES program was used to compute the equilibrium temperature profile in the PV module. It was shown that heat is dissipated towards the bottom and the top of the module, and that its temperature can be much higher than the ambient temperature. Modelling results indicate that 70-75 per cent of the absorbed solar radiation is dissipated from the solar cells as heat, while 4.7 per cent of the solar energy is absorbed in the glass cover and the EVA. It was also shown that the operating temperature of the PV module decreases with increased wind speed. 2 refs.
Modeling Bird Migration under Climate Change: A Mechanistic Approach
Smith, James A.
2009-01-01
How will migrating birds respond to changes in the environment under climate change? What are the implications for migratory success under the various accelerated climate change scenarios as forecast by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change? How will reductions or increased variability in the number or quality of wetland stop-over sites affect migratory bird species? The answers to these questions have important ramifications for conservation biology and wildlife management. Here, we describe the use of continental scale simulation modeling to explore how spatio-temporal changes along migratory flyways affect en-route migration success. We use an individually based, biophysical, mechanistic, bird migration model to simulate the movement of shorebirds in North America as a tool to study how such factors as drought and wetland loss may impact migratory success and modify migration patterns. Our model is driven by remote sensing and climate data and incorporates important landscape variables. The energy budget components of the model include resting, foraging, and flight, but presently predation is ignored. Results/Conclusions We illustrate our model by studying the spring migration of sandpipers through the Great Plains to their Arctic breeding grounds. Why many species of shorebirds have shown significant declines remains a puzzle. Shorebirds are sensitive to stop-over quality and spacing because of their need for frequent refueling stops and their opportunistic feeding patterns. We predict bird "hydrographs that is, stop-over frequency with latitude, that are in agreement with the literature. Mean stop-over durations predicted from our model for nominal cases also are consistent with the limited, but available data. For the shorebird species simulated, our model predicts that shorebirds exhibit significant plasticity and are able to shift their migration patterns in response to changing drought conditions. However, the question remains as to whether this
Modeling non-monotonic properties under propositional argumentation
Wang, Geng; Lin, Zuoquan
2013-03-01
In the field of knowledge representation, argumentation is usually considered as an abstract framework for nonclassical logic. In this paper, however, we'd like to present a propositional argumentation framework, which can be used to closer simulate a real-world argumentation. We thereby argue that under a dialectical argumentation game, we can allow non-monotonic reasoning even under classical logic. We introduce two methods together for gaining nonmonotonicity, one by giving plausibility for arguments, the other by adding "exceptions" which is similar to defaults. Furthermore, we will give out an alternative definition for propositional argumentation using argumentative models, which is highly related to the previous reasoning method, but with a simple algorithm for calculation.
Mechanisms Underlying Mammalian Hybrid Sterility in Two Feline Interspecies Models.
Davis, Brian W; Seabury, Christopher M; Brashear, Wesley A; Li, Gang; Roelke-Parker, Melody; Murphy, William J
2015-10-01
The phenomenon of male sterility in interspecies hybrids has been observed for over a century, however, few genes influencing this recurrent phenotype have been identified. Genetic investigations have been primarily limited to a small number of model organisms, thus limiting our understanding of the underlying molecular basis of this well-documented "rule of speciation." We utilized two interspecies hybrid cat breeds in a genome-wide association study employing the Illumina 63 K single-nucleotide polymorphism array. Collectively, we identified eight autosomal genes/gene regions underlying associations with hybrid male sterility (HMS) involved in the function of the blood-testis barrier, gamete structural development, and transcriptional regulation. We also identified several candidate hybrid sterility regions on the X chromosome, with most residing in close proximity to complex duplicated regions. Differential gene expression analyses revealed significant chromosome-wide upregulation of X chromosome transcripts in testes of sterile hybrids, which were enriched for genes involved in chromatin regulation of gene expression. Our expression results parallel those reported in Mus hybrids, supporting the "Large X-Effect" in mammalian HMS and the potential epigenetic basis for this phenomenon. These results support the value of the interspecies feline model as a powerful tool for comparison to rodent models of HMS, demonstrating unique aspects and potential commonalities that underpin mammalian reproductive isolation. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.
Robustness for slope stability modelling under deep uncertainty
Almeida, Susana; Holcombe, Liz; Pianosi, Francesca; Wagener, Thorsten
2015-04-01
Landslides can have large negative societal and economic impacts, such as loss of life and damage to infrastructure. However, the ability of slope stability assessment to guide management is limited by high levels of uncertainty in model predictions. Many of these uncertainties cannot be easily quantified, such as those linked to climate change and other future socio-economic conditions, restricting the usefulness of traditional decision analysis tools. Deep uncertainty can be managed more effectively by developing robust, but not necessarily optimal, policies that are expected to perform adequately under a wide range of future conditions. Robust strategies are particularly valuable when the consequences of taking a wrong decision are high as is often the case of when managing natural hazard risks such as landslides. In our work a physically based numerical model of hydrologically induced slope instability (the Combined Hydrology and Stability Model - CHASM) is applied together with robust decision making to evaluate the most important uncertainties (storm events, groundwater conditions, surface cover, slope geometry, material strata and geotechnical properties) affecting slope stability. Specifically, impacts of climate change on long-term slope stability are incorporated, accounting for the deep uncertainty in future climate projections. Our findings highlight the potential of robust decision making to aid decision support for landslide hazard reduction and risk management under conditions of deep uncertainty.
Modelling and simulation of concrete leaching under outdoor exposure conditions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Schiopu, Nicoleta; Tiruta-Barna, Ligia; Jayr, Emmanuel; Mehu, Jacques; Moszkowicz, Pierre
2009-01-01
Recently, a demand regarding the assessment of release of dangerous substances from construction products was raised by European Commission which has issued the Mandate M/366 addressed to CEN. This action is in relation with the Essential Requirement No. 3 'Hygiene, Health and Environment' of the Construction Products Directive (89/106/EC). The potential hazard for environment and health may arise in different life cycle stages of a construction product. During the service life stage, the release of substances due to contact with the rain water is the main potential hazard source, as a consequence of the leaching phenomenon. The objective of this paper is to present the development of a coupled chemical-transport model for the case of a concrete based construction product, i.e. concrete paving slabs, exposed to rain water under outdoor exposure conditions. The development of the model is based on an iterative process of comparing the experimental results with the simulated results up to an acceptable fit. The experiments were conducted at laboratory scale (equilibrium and dynamic leaching tests) and field scale. The product was exposed for one year in two types of leaching scenarios under outdoor conditions, 'runoff' and 'stagnation', and the element release was monitored. The model was calibrated using the experimental data obtained at laboratory scale and validated against measured field data, by taking into account the specific rain water balance and the atmospheric CO 2 uptake as input parameters. The numerical tool used in order to model and simulate the leaching behaviour was PHREEQC, coupled with the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) thermodynamic data base. The simulation results are satisfying and the paper demonstrates the feasibility of the modelling approach for the leaching behaviour assessment of concrete type construction materials
Turing mechanism underlying a branching model for lung morphogenesis.
Xu, Hui; Sun, Mingzhu; Zhao, Xin
2017-01-01
The mammalian lung develops through branching morphogenesis. Two primary forms of branching, which occur in order, in the lung have been identified: tip bifurcation and side branching. However, the mechanisms of lung branching morphogenesis remain to be explored. In our previous study, a biological mechanism was presented for lung branching pattern formation through a branching model. Here, we provide a mathematical mechanism underlying the branching patterns. By decoupling the branching model, we demonstrated the existence of Turing instability. We performed Turing instability analysis to reveal the mathematical mechanism of the branching patterns. Our simulation results show that the Turing patterns underlying the branching patterns are spot patterns that exhibit high local morphogen concentration. The high local morphogen concentration induces the growth of branching. Furthermore, we found that the sparse spot patterns underlie the tip bifurcation patterns, while the dense spot patterns underlies the side branching patterns. The dispersion relation analysis shows that the Turing wavelength affects the branching structure. As the wavelength decreases, the spot patterns change from sparse to dense, the rate of tip bifurcation decreases and side branching eventually occurs instead. In the process of transformation, there may exists hybrid branching that mixes tip bifurcation and side branching. Since experimental studies have reported that branching mode switching from side branching to tip bifurcation in the lung is under genetic control, our simulation results suggest that genes control the switch of the branching mode by regulating the Turing wavelength. Our results provide a novel insight into and understanding of the formation of branching patterns in the lung and other biological systems.
Mechanical Model for Dynamic Behavior of Concrete Under Impact Loading
Sun, Yuanxiang
Concrete is a geo-material which is used substantively in the civil building and military safeguard. One coupled model of damage and plasticity to describe the complex behavior of concrete subjected to impact loading is proposed in this research work. The concrete is assumed as homogeneous continuum with pre-existing micro-cracks and micro-voids. Damage to concrete is caused due to micro-crack nucleation, growth and coalescence, and defined as the probability of fracture at a given crack density. It induces a decrease of strength and stiffness of concrete. Compaction of concrete is physically a collapse of the material voids. It produces the plastic strain in the concrete and, at the same time, an increase of the bulk modulus. In terms of crack growth model, micro-cracks are activated, and begin to propagate gradually. When crack density reaches a critical value, concrete takes place the smashing destroy. The model parameters for mortar are determined using plate impact experiment with uni-axial strain state. Comparison with the test results shows that the proposed model can give consistent prediction of the impact behavior of concrete. The proposed model may be used to design and analysis of concrete structures under impact and shock loading. This work is supported by State Key Laboratory of Explosion science and Technology, Beijing Institute of Technology (YBKT14-02).
Nonlinear modeling of magnetorheological energy absorbers under impact conditions
Mao, Min; Hu, Wei; Choi, Young-Tai; Wereley, Norman M.; Browne, Alan L.; Ulicny, John; Johnson, Nancy
2013-11-01
Magnetorheological energy absorbers (MREAs) provide adaptive vibration and shock mitigation capabilities to accommodate varying payloads, vibration spectra, and shock pulses, as well as other environmental factors. A key performance metric is the dynamic range, which is defined as the ratio of the force at maximum field to the force in the absence of field. The off-state force is typically assumed to increase linearly with speed, but at the higher shaft speeds occurring in impact events, the off-state damping exhibits nonlinear velocity squared damping effects. To improve understanding of MREA behavior under high-speed impact conditions, this study focuses on nonlinear MREA models that can more accurately predict MREA dynamic behavior for nominal impact speeds of up to 6 m s-1. Three models were examined in this study. First, a nonlinear Bingham-plastic (BP) model incorporating Darcy friction and fluid inertia (Unsteady-BP) was formulated where the force is proportional to the velocity. Second, a Bingham-plastic model incorporating minor loss factors and fluid inertia (Unsteady-BPM) to better account for high-speed behavior was formulated. Third, a hydromechanical (HM) analysis was developed to account for fluid compressibility and inertia as well as minor loss factors. These models were validated using drop test data obtained using the drop tower facility at GM R&D Center for nominal drop speeds of up to 6 m s-1.
Nonlinear modeling of magnetorheological energy absorbers under impact conditions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mao, Min; Hu, Wei; Choi, Young-Tai; Wereley, Norman M; Browne, Alan L; Ulicny, John; Johnson, Nancy
2013-01-01
Magnetorheological energy absorbers (MREAs) provide adaptive vibration and shock mitigation capabilities to accommodate varying payloads, vibration spectra, and shock pulses, as well as other environmental factors. A key performance metric is the dynamic range, which is defined as the ratio of the force at maximum field to the force in the absence of field. The off-state force is typically assumed to increase linearly with speed, but at the higher shaft speeds occurring in impact events, the off-state damping exhibits nonlinear velocity squared damping effects. To improve understanding of MREA behavior under high-speed impact conditions, this study focuses on nonlinear MREA models that can more accurately predict MREA dynamic behavior for nominal impact speeds of up to 6 m s −1 . Three models were examined in this study. First, a nonlinear Bingham-plastic (BP) model incorporating Darcy friction and fluid inertia (Unsteady-BP) was formulated where the force is proportional to the velocity. Second, a Bingham-plastic model incorporating minor loss factors and fluid inertia (Unsteady-BPM) to better account for high-speed behavior was formulated. Third, a hydromechanical (HM) analysis was developed to account for fluid compressibility and inertia as well as minor loss factors. These models were validated using drop test data obtained using the drop tower facility at GM R and D Center for nominal drop speeds of up to 6 m s −1 . (paper)
Lure(d) into listening: The potential of cognition-based music information retrieval.
Honing, H.
2010-01-01
This paper argues for the potential of cognition-based music retrieval by introducing the notion of a musical ‘hook’ as a key memorization, recall, and search mechanism. A hook is considered the most salient, memorable, and easy to recall moment of a musical phrase or song. Next to its role in
Modeling concrete under severe conditions as a multiphase material
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Dal Pont, S., E-mail: dalpont@lcpc.f [Division Betons et Composites Cimentaires, BCC-LCPC, 58 Bd.Lefebvre 75738 Paris cedex 15 (France); Meftah, F. [Laboratoire Mecanique et Materiaux du Genie Civil, Universite Cergy-Pontoise, 5 mail Gay Lussac, Neuville-sur-Oise, 95031 Cergy-Pontoise Cedex (France); Schrefler, B.A. [Dipartimento di Costruzioni e Trasporti, Universita di Padova, via Marzolo 9, 35131 Padova (Italy)
2011-03-15
The description as well as the prediction of the behavior of concrete under severe high temperature-pressure loading such as those typical of a loss-of-coolant accidental scenario considered for PWR containment buildings, matter in the study of such engineering applications and are also of interest in other fields such as safety evaluations during fire. The purpose of this paper is to present a flexible staggered finite element thermo-hygral model and then to use it as a numerical tool to determine the temperature and gas pressure fields that develop in concrete when heated.
Replenishment policy for an inventory model under inflation
Singh, Vikramjeet; Saxena, Seema; Singh, Pushpinder; Mishra, Nitin Kumar
2017-07-01
The purpose of replenishment is to keep the flow of inventory in the system. To determine an optimal replenishment policy is a great challenge in developing an inventory model. Inflation is defined as the rate at which the prices of goods and services are rising over a time period. The cost parameters are affected by the rate of inflation. High rate of inflation affects the organizations financial conditions. Based on the above backdrop the present paper proposes the retailers replenishment policy for deteriorating items with different cycle lengths under inflation. The shortages are partially backlogged. At last numerical examples validate the results.
Constitutive model and electroplastic analysis of structures under cyclic loading
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wang, X.; Lei, Y; Du, Q.
1989-01-01
Many engineering structures in nuclear reactors, thermal power stations, chemical plants and aerospace vehicles are subjected to cyclic mechanic-thermal loading, which is the main cause of structural fatigue failure. Over the past twenty years, designers and researchers have paid great attention to the research on life prediction and elastoplastic analysis of structures under cyclic loading. One of the key problems in elastoplastic analysis is to construct a reasonable constitutive model for cyclic plasticity. In the paper, the constitutive equations are briefly outlined. Then, the model is implemented in a finite element code to predict the response of cyclic loaded structural components such as a double-edge-notched plate, a grooved bar and a nozzle in spherical shell. Numerical results are compared with those from other theories and experiments
Dynamic malware containment under an epidemic model with alert
Zhang, Tianrui; Yang, Lu-Xing; Yang, Xiaofan; Wu, Yingbo; Tang, Yuan Yan
2017-03-01
Alerting at the early stage of malware invasion turns out to be an important complement to malware detection and elimination. This paper addresses the issue of how to dynamically contain the prevalence of malware at a lower cost, provided alerting is feasible. A controlled epidemic model with alert is established, and an optimal control problem based on the epidemic model is formulated. The optimality system for the optimal control problem is derived. The structure of an optimal control for the proposed optimal control problem is characterized under some conditions. Numerical examples show that the cost-efficiency of an optimal control strategy can be enhanced by adjusting the upper and lower bounds on admissible controls.
Groundwater flow modelling under ice sheet conditions. Scoping calculations
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Jaquet, O.; Namar, R. (In2Earth Modelling Ltd (Switzerland)); Jansson, P. (Dept. of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm Univ., Stockholm (Sweden))
2010-10-15
The potential impact of long-term climate changes has to be evaluated with respect to repository performance and safety. In particular, glacial periods of advancing and retreating ice sheet and prolonged permafrost conditions are likely to occur over the repository site. The growth and decay of ice sheets and the associated distribution of permafrost will affect the groundwater flow field and its composition. As large changes may take place, the understanding of groundwater flow patterns in connection to glaciations is an important issue for the geological disposal at long term. During a glacial period, the performance of the repository could be weakened by some of the following conditions and associated processes: - Maximum pressure at repository depth (canister failure). - Maximum permafrost depth (canister failure, buffer function). - Concentration of groundwater oxygen (canister corrosion). - Groundwater salinity (buffer stability). - Glacially induced earthquakes (canister failure). Therefore, the GAP project aims at understanding key hydrogeological issues as well as answering specific questions: - Regional groundwater flow system under ice sheet conditions. - Flow and infiltration conditions at the ice sheet bed. - Penetration depth of glacial meltwater into the bedrock. - Water chemical composition at repository depth in presence of glacial effects. - Role of the taliks, located in front of the ice sheet, likely to act as potential discharge zones of deep groundwater flow. - Influence of permafrost distribution on the groundwater flow system in relation to build-up and thawing periods. - Consequences of glacially induced earthquakes on the groundwater flow system. Some answers will be provided by the field data and investigations; the integration of the information and the dynamic characterisation of the key processes will be obtained using numerical modelling. Since most of the data are not yet available, some scoping calculations are performed using the
Groundwater flow modelling under ice sheet conditions. Scoping calculations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jaquet, O.; Namar, R.; Jansson, P.
2010-10-01
The potential impact of long-term climate changes has to be evaluated with respect to repository performance and safety. In particular, glacial periods of advancing and retreating ice sheet and prolonged permafrost conditions are likely to occur over the repository site. The growth and decay of ice sheets and the associated distribution of permafrost will affect the groundwater flow field and its composition. As large changes may take place, the understanding of groundwater flow patterns in connection to glaciations is an important issue for the geological disposal at long term. During a glacial period, the performance of the repository could be weakened by some of the following conditions and associated processes: - Maximum pressure at repository depth (canister failure). - Maximum permafrost depth (canister failure, buffer function). - Concentration of groundwater oxygen (canister corrosion). - Groundwater salinity (buffer stability). - Glacially induced earthquakes (canister failure). Therefore, the GAP project aims at understanding key hydrogeological issues as well as answering specific questions: - Regional groundwater flow system under ice sheet conditions. - Flow and infiltration conditions at the ice sheet bed. - Penetration depth of glacial meltwater into the bedrock. - Water chemical composition at repository depth in presence of glacial effects. - Role of the taliks, located in front of the ice sheet, likely to act as potential discharge zones of deep groundwater flow. - Influence of permafrost distribution on the groundwater flow system in relation to build-up and thawing periods. - Consequences of glacially induced earthquakes on the groundwater flow system. Some answers will be provided by the field data and investigations; the integration of the information and the dynamic characterisation of the key processes will be obtained using numerical modelling. Since most of the data are not yet available, some scoping calculations are performed using the
Modelling of Performance of Caisson Type Breakwaters under Extreme Waves
Güney Doǧan, Gözde; Özyurt Tarakcıoǧlu, Gülizar; Baykal, Cüneyt
2016-04-01
Many coastal structures are designed without considering loads of tsunami-like waves or long waves although they are constructed in areas prone to encounter these waves. Performance of caisson type breakwaters under extreme swells is tested in Middle East Technical University (METU) Coastal and Ocean Engineering Laboratory. This paper presents the comparison of pressure measurements taken along the surface of caisson type breakwaters and obtained from numerical modelling of them using IH2VOF as well as damage behavior of the breakwater under the same extreme swells tested in a wave flume at METU. Experiments are conducted in the 1.5 m wide wave flume, which is divided into two parallel sections (0.74 m wide each). A piston type of wave maker is used to generate the long wave conditions located at one end of the wave basin. Water depth is determined as 0.4m and kept constant during the experiments. A caisson type breakwater is constructed to one side of the divided flume. The model scale, based on the Froude similitude law, is chosen as 1:50. 7 different wave conditions are applied in the tests as the wave period ranging from 14.6 s to 34.7 s, wave heights from 3.5 m to 7.5 m and steepness from 0.002 to 0.015 in prototype scale. The design wave parameters for the breakwater were 5m wave height and 9.5s wave period in prototype. To determine the damage of the breakwater which were designed according to this wave but tested under swell waves, video and photo analysis as well as breakwater profile measurements before and after each test are performed. Further investigations are carried out about the acting wave forces on the concrete blocks of the caisson structures via pressure measurements on the surfaces of these structures where the structures are fixed to the channel bottom minimizing. Finally, these pressure measurements will be compared with the results obtained from the numerical study using IH2VOF which is one of the RANS models that can be applied to simulate
A quasilinear model for solute transport under unsaturated flow
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Houseworth, J.E.; Leem, J.
2009-01-01
We developed an analytical solution for solute transport under steady-state, two-dimensional, unsaturated flow and transport conditions for the investigation of high-level radioactive waste disposal. The two-dimensional, unsaturated flow problem is treated using the quasilinear flow method for a system with homogeneous material properties. Dispersion is modeled as isotropic and is proportional to the effective hydraulic conductivity. This leads to a quasilinear form for the transport problem in terms of a scalar potential that is analogous to the Kirchhoff potential for quasilinear flow. The solutions for both flow and transport scalar potentials take the form of Fourier series. The particular solution given here is for two sources of flow, with one source containing a dissolved solute. The solution method may easily be extended, however, for any combination of flow and solute sources under steady-state conditions. The analytical results for multidimensional solute transport problems, which previously could only be solved numerically, also offer an additional way to benchmark numerical solutions. An analytical solution for two-dimensional, steady-state solute transport under unsaturated flow conditions is presented. A specific case with two sources is solved but may be generalized to any combination of sources. The analytical results complement numerical solutions, which were previously required to solve this class of problems.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Xuan Dung Vu
2013-01-01
Concrete is a material whose behavior is complex, especially in cases of extreme loads. The objective of this thesis is to carry out an experimental characterization of the behavior of concrete under impact-generated stresses (confined compression and dynamic traction) and to develop a robust numerical tool to reliably model this behavior. In the experimental part, we have studied concrete samples from the VTT center (Technical Research Center of Finland). At first, quasi-static triaxial compressions with the confinement varies from 0 MPa (unconfined compression test) to 600 MPa were realized. The stiffness of the concrete increases with confinement pressure because of the reduction of porosity. Therefore, the maximum shear strength of the concrete is increased. The presence of water plays an important role when the degree of saturation is high and the concrete is subjected to high confinement pressure. Beyond a certain level of confinement pressure, the maximum shear strength of concrete decreases with increasing water content. The effect of water also influences the volumetric behavior of concrete. When all free pores are closed as a result of compaction, the low compressibility of the water prevents the deformation of the concrete, whereby the wet concrete is less deformed than the dry concrete for the same mean stress. The second part of the experimental program concerns dynamic tensile tests at different loading velocities, and different moisture conditions of concrete. The results show that the tensile strength of concrete C50 may increase up to 5 times compared to its static strength for a strain rate of about 100 s -1 . In the numerical part, we are interested in improving an existing constitutive coupled model of concrete behavior called PRM (Pontiroli-Rouquand-Mazars) to predict the concrete behavior under impact. This model is based on a coupling between a damage model which is able to describe the degradation mechanisms and cracking of the concrete at
Modeling of thermal explosion under pressure in metal ceramic systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Shapiro, M.; Dudko, V.; Skachek, B.; Matvienko, A.; Gotman, I.; Gutmanas, E.Y.
1998-01-01
The process of reactive in situ synthesis of dense ceramic matrix composites in Ti-B-C, Ti-B-N, Ti-Si-N systems is modeled. These ceramics are fabricated on the basis of compacted blends of ceramic powders, namely Ti-B 4 C and/or Ti-BN. The objectives of the project are to identify and investigate the optimal thermal conditions preferable for production of fully dense ceramic matrix composites. Towards this goal heat transfer and combustion in dense and porous ceramic blends are investigated during monotonous heating at a constant rate. This process is modeled using a heat transfer-combustion model with kinetic parameters determined from the differential thermal analysis of the experimental data. The kinetic burning parameters and the model developed are further used to describe the thermal explosion synthesis in a restrained die under pressure. It is shown that heat removal from the reaction zone affects the combustion process and the final phase composition
Model tracking dual stochastic controller design under irregular internal noises
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lee, Jong Bok; Heo, Hoon; Cho, Yun Hyun; Ji, Tae Young
2006-01-01
Although many methods about the control of irregular external noise have been introduced and implemented, it is still necessary to design a controller that will be more effective and efficient methods to exclude for various noises. Accumulation of errors due to model tracking, internal noises (thermal noise, shot noise and l/f noise) that come from elements such as resistor, diode and transistor etc. in the circuit system and numerical errors due to digital process often destabilize the system and reduce the system performance. New stochastic controller is adopted to remove those noises using conventional controller simultaneously. Design method of a model tracking dual controller is proposed to improve the stability of system while removing external and internal noises. In the study, design process of the model tracking dual stochastic controller is introduced that improves system performance and guarantees robustness under irregular internal noises which can be created internally. The model tracking dual stochastic controller utilizing F-P-K stochastic control technique developed earlier is implemented to reveal its performance via simulation
Selection of Representative Models for Decision Analysis Under Uncertainty
Meira, Luis A. A.; Coelho, Guilherme P.; Santos, Antonio Alberto S.; Schiozer, Denis J.
2016-03-01
The decision-making process in oil fields includes a step of risk analysis associated with the uncertainties present in the variables of the problem. Such uncertainties lead to hundreds, even thousands, of possible scenarios that are supposed to be analyzed so an effective production strategy can be selected. Given this high number of scenarios, a technique to reduce this set to a smaller, feasible subset of representative scenarios is imperative. The selected scenarios must be representative of the original set and also free of optimistic and pessimistic bias. This paper is devoted to propose an assisted methodology to identify representative models in oil fields. To do so, first a mathematical function was developed to model the representativeness of a subset of models with respect to the full set that characterizes the problem. Then, an optimization tool was implemented to identify the representative models of any problem, considering not only the cross-plots of the main output variables, but also the risk curves and the probability distribution of the attribute-levels of the problem. The proposed technique was applied to two benchmark cases and the results, evaluated by experts in the field, indicate that the obtained solutions are richer than those identified by previously adopted manual approaches. The program bytecode is available under request.
The role of uncertainty in supply chains under dynamic modeling
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. Fera
2017-01-01
Full Text Available The uncertainty in the supply chains (SCs for manufacturing and services firms is going to be, over the coming decades, more important for the companies that are called to compete in a new globalized economy. Risky situations for manufacturing are considered in trying to individuate the optimal positioning of the order penetration point (OPP. It aims at defining the best level of information of the client’s order going back through the several supply chain (SC phases, i.e. engineering, procurement, production and distribution. This work aims at defining a system dynamics model to assess competitiveness coming from the positioning of the order in different SC locations. A Taguchi analysis has been implemented to create a decision map for identifying possible strategic decisions under different scenarios and with alternatives for order location in the SC levels. Centralized and decentralized strategies for SC integration are discussed. In the model proposed, the location of OPP is influenced by the demand variation, production time, stock-outs and stock amount. Results of this research are as follows: (i customer-oriented strategies are preferable under high volatility of demand, (ii production-focused strategies are suggested when the probability of stock-outs is high, (iii no specific location is preferable if a centralized control architecture is implemented, (iv centralization requires cooperation among partners to achieve the SC optimum point, (v the producer must not prefer the OPP location at the Retailer level when the general strategy is focused on a decentralized approach.
Procurement Under The UNCITRAL Model Law: A Southern Africa Perspective
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Stephen De La Harpe
2015-12-01
Full Text Available In Africa, economic integration, realised through regional integration, is seen as one of the driving factors that will improve the lives of its people. To enable regionalisation, economic growth and to unlock the potential of Africa its infrastructure will have to be improved. Infrastructure will on the whole be realised through public procurement. The stages for opening up procurement markets, referred to by Yukins and Schooner, is discussed and it is concluded that the states in SADC is still in the initial stages of opening its public procurement markets for regional competition. Although COMESA is not yet in full compliance with all four the stages great strides have been made and have elements of all stages been addressed. Because of the influence the Model Law has already played in COMESA, and the rest of Africa, it would be contra productive should SADC not take the same route as COMESA. If regard is had to the four categories of procurement rules that serves as barriers to national procurement markets, as set out by Arrowsmith it is clear that all of these are present in most SADC member states. Also in the case of COMESA these barriers still exist albeit to a lesser extent. What is necessary is a phased approach to address all of these barriers. This will be possible under the UNCITRAL Model Law as the 2011 Model Law does provide for the possibility of complying with international obligations and for states to allow for socio economic objectives in their procurement regimes. There can be little doubt that the 1994 Model Law has already had a marked influence on public procurement regulation in Africa and that the 2011 Model Law will in future continue to do so. Public procurement is essential for economic development and is the integration and harmonisation thereof on a regional basis the first step In this regard SADC, and especially South Africa, has an important role to play.
Sustainable infrastructure system modeling under uncertainties and dynamics
Huang, Yongxi
Infrastructure systems support human activities in transportation, communication, water use, and energy supply. The dissertation research focuses on critical transportation infrastructure and renewable energy infrastructure systems. The goal of the research efforts is to improve the sustainability of the infrastructure systems, with an emphasis on economic viability, system reliability and robustness, and environmental impacts. The research efforts in critical transportation infrastructure concern the development of strategic robust resource allocation strategies in an uncertain decision-making environment, considering both uncertain service availability and accessibility. The study explores the performances of different modeling approaches (i.e., deterministic, stochastic programming, and robust optimization) to reflect various risk preferences. The models are evaluated in a case study of Singapore and results demonstrate that stochastic modeling methods in general offers more robust allocation strategies compared to deterministic approaches in achieving high coverage to critical infrastructures under risks. This general modeling framework can be applied to other emergency service applications, such as, locating medical emergency services. The development of renewable energy infrastructure system development aims to answer the following key research questions: (1) is the renewable energy an economically viable solution? (2) what are the energy distribution and infrastructure system requirements to support such energy supply systems in hedging against potential risks? (3) how does the energy system adapt the dynamics from evolving technology and societal needs in the transition into a renewable energy based society? The study of Renewable Energy System Planning with Risk Management incorporates risk management into its strategic planning of the supply chains. The physical design and operational management are integrated as a whole in seeking mitigations against the
Model of personal consumption under conditions of modern economy
Rakhmatullina, D. K.; Akhmetshina, E. R.; Ignatjeva, O. A.
2017-12-01
In the conditions of the modern economy, in connection with the development of production, the expansion of the market for goods and services, its differentiation, active use of marketing tools in the sphere of sales, changes occur in the system of values and consumer needs. Motives that drive the consumer are transformed, stimulating it to activity. The article presents a model of personal consumption that takes into account modern trends in consumer behavior. The consumer, making a choice, seeks to maximize the overall utility from consumption, physiological and socio-psychological satisfaction, in accordance with his expectations, preferences and conditions of consumption. The system of his preferences is formed under the influence of factors of a different nature. It is also shown that the structure of consumer spending allows us to characterize and predict its further behavior in the market. Based on the proposed model and analysis of current trends in consumer behavior, conclusions and recommendations have been made that can be used by legislative and executive government bodies, business organizations, research centres and other structures to form a methodological and analytical tool for preparing a forecast model of consumption.
Robust Optimization Model for Production Planning Problem under Uncertainty
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Pembe GÜÇLÜ
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Conditions of businesses change very quickly. To take into account the uncertainty engendered by changes has become almost a rule while planning. Robust optimization techniques that are methods of handling uncertainty ensure to produce less sensitive results to changing conditions. Production planning, is to decide from which product, when and how much will be produced, with a most basic definition. Modeling and solution of the Production planning problems changes depending on structure of the production processes, parameters and variables. In this paper, it is aimed to generate and apply scenario based robust optimization model for capacitated two-stage multi-product production planning problem under parameter and demand uncertainty. With this purpose, production planning problem of a textile company that operate in İzmir has been modeled and solved, then deterministic scenarios’ and robust method’s results have been compared. Robust method has provided a production plan that has higher cost but, will result close to feasible and optimal for most of the different scenarios in the future.
Two-fluid model for locomotion under self-confinement
Reigh, Shang Yik; Lauga, Eric
2017-09-01
The bacterium Helicobacter pylori causes ulcers in the stomach of humans by invading mucus layers protecting epithelial cells. It does so by chemically changing the rheological properties of the mucus from a high-viscosity gel to a low-viscosity solution in which it may self-propel. We develop a two-fluid model for this process of swimming under self-generated confinement. We solve exactly for the flow and the locomotion speed of a spherical swimmer located in a spherically symmetric system of two Newtonian fluids whose boundary moves with the swimmer. We also treat separately the special case of an immobile outer fluid. In all cases, we characterize the flow fields, their spatial decay, and the impact of both the viscosity ratio and the degree of confinement on the locomotion speed of the model swimmer. The spatial decay of the flow retains the same power-law decay as for locomotion in a single fluid but with a decreased magnitude. Independent of the assumption chosen to characterize the impact of confinement on the actuation applied by the swimmer, its locomotion speed always decreases with an increase in the degree of confinement. Our modeling results suggest that a low-viscosity region of at least six times the effective swimmer size is required to lead to swimming with speeds similar to locomotion in an infinite fluid, corresponding to a region of size above ≈25 μ m for Helicobacter pylori.
Modelling crop yield in Iberia under drought conditions
Ribeiro, Andreia; Páscoa, Patrícia; Russo, Ana; Gouveia, Célia
2017-04-01
The improved assessment of the cereal yield and crop loss under drought conditions are essential to meet the increasing economy demands. The growing frequency and severity of the extreme drought conditions in the Iberian Peninsula (IP) has been likely responsible for negative impacts on agriculture, namely on crop yield losses. Therefore, a continuous monitoring of vegetation activity and a reliable estimation of drought impacts is crucial to contribute for the agricultural drought management and development of suitable information tools. This works aims to assess the influence of drought conditions in agricultural yields over the IP, considering cereal yields from mainly rainfed agriculture for the provinces with higher productivity. The main target is to develop a strategy to model drought risk on agriculture for wheat yield at a province level. In order to achieve this goal a combined assessment was made using a drought indicator (Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI) to evaluate drought conditions together with a widely used vegetation index (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, NDVI) to monitor vegetation activity. A correlation analysis between detrended wheat yield and SPEI was performed in order to assess the vegetation response to each time scale of drought occurrence and also identify the moment of the vegetative cycle when the crop yields are more vulnerable to drought conditions. The time scales and months of SPEI, together with the months of NDVI, better related with wheat yield were chosen to perform a multivariate regression analysis to simulate crop yield. Model results are satisfactory and highlighted the usefulness of such analysis in the framework of developing a drought risk model for crop yields. In terms of an operational point of view, the results aim to contribute to an improved understanding of crop yield management under dry conditions, particularly adding substantial information on the advantages of combining
Transient modelling of a natural circulation loop under variable pressure
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Vianna, Andre L.B.; Faccini, Jose L.H.; Su, Jian; Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear
2017-01-01
The objective of the present work is to model the transient operation of a natural circulation loop, which is one-tenth scale in height to a typical Passive Residual Heat Removal system (PRHR) of an Advanced Pressurized Water Nuclear Reactor and was designed to meet the single and two-phase flow similarity criteria to it. The loop consists of a core barrel with electrically heated rods, upper and lower plena interconnected by hot and cold pipe legs to a seven-tube shell heat exchanger of countercurrent design, and an expansion tank with a descending tube. A long transient characterized the loop operation, during which a phenomenon of self-pressurization, without self-regulation of the pressure, was experimentally observed. This represented a unique situation, named natural circulation under variable pressure (NCVP). The self-pressurization was originated in the air trapped in the expansion tank and compressed by the loop water dilatation, as it heated up during each experiment. The mathematical model, initially oriented to the single-phase flow, included the heat capacity of the structure and employed a cubic polynomial approximation for the density, in the buoyancy term calculation. The heater was modelled taking into account the different heat capacities of the heating elements and the heater walls. The heat exchanger was modelled considering the coolant heating, during the heat exchanging process. The self-pressurization was modelled as an isentropic compression of a perfect gas. The whole model was computationally implemented via a set of finite difference equations. The corresponding computational algorithm of solution was of the explicit, marching type, as for the time discretization, in an upwind scheme, regarding the space discretization. The computational program was implemented in MATLAB. Several experiments were carried out in the natural circulation loop, having the coolant flow rate and the heating power as control parameters. The variables used in the
Mechanical Modeling of a WIPP Drum Under Pressure
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Smith, Jeffrey A. [Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM (United States)
2014-11-25
Mechanical modeling was undertaken to support the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) technical assessment team (TAT) investigating the February 14th 2014 event where there was a radiological release at the WIPP. The initial goal of the modeling was to examine if a mechanical model could inform the team about the event. The intention was to have a model that could test scenarios with respect to the rate of pressurization. It was expected that the deformation and failure (inability of the drum to contain any pressure) would vary according to the pressurization rate. As the work progressed there was also interest in using the mechanical analysis of the drum to investigate what would happen if a drum pressurized when it was located under a standard waste package. Specifically, would the deformation be detectable from camera views within the room. A finite element model of a WIPP 55-gallon drum was developed that used all hex elements. Analyses were conducted using the explicit transient dynamics module of Sierra/SM to explore potential pressurization scenarios of the drum. Theses analysis show similar deformation patterns to documented pressurization tests of drums in the literature. The calculated failure pressures from previous tests documented in the literature vary from as little as 16 psi to 320 psi. In addition, previous testing documented in the literature shows drums bulging but not failing at pressures ranging from 69 to 138 psi. The analyses performed for this study found the drums failing at pressures ranging from 35 psi to 75 psi. When the drums are pressurized quickly (in 0.01 seconds) there is significant deformation to the lid. At lower pressurization rates the deformation of the lid is considerably less, yet the lids will still open from the pressure. The analyses demonstrate the influence of pressurization rate on deformation and opening pressure of the drums. Analyses conducted with a substantial mass on top of the closed drum demonstrate that the
Transient modelling of a natural circulation loop under variable pressure
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Vianna, Andre L.B.; Faccini, Jose L.H.; Su, Jian, E-mail: avianna@nuclear.ufrj.br, E-mail: sujian@nuclear.ufrj.br, E-mail: faccini@ien.gov.br [Coordenacao de Pos-Graduacao e Pesquisa de Engenharia (COPPE/UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Programa de Engenharia Nuclear; Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (IEN/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Lab. de Termo-Hidraulica Experimental
2017-07-01
The objective of the present work is to model the transient operation of a natural circulation loop, which is one-tenth scale in height to a typical Passive Residual Heat Removal system (PRHR) of an Advanced Pressurized Water Nuclear Reactor and was designed to meet the single and two-phase flow similarity criteria to it. The loop consists of a core barrel with electrically heated rods, upper and lower plena interconnected by hot and cold pipe legs to a seven-tube shell heat exchanger of countercurrent design, and an expansion tank with a descending tube. A long transient characterized the loop operation, during which a phenomenon of self-pressurization, without self-regulation of the pressure, was experimentally observed. This represented a unique situation, named natural circulation under variable pressure (NCVP). The self-pressurization was originated in the air trapped in the expansion tank and compressed by the loop water dilatation, as it heated up during each experiment. The mathematical model, initially oriented to the single-phase flow, included the heat capacity of the structure and employed a cubic polynomial approximation for the density, in the buoyancy term calculation. The heater was modelled taking into account the different heat capacities of the heating elements and the heater walls. The heat exchanger was modelled considering the coolant heating, during the heat exchanging process. The self-pressurization was modelled as an isentropic compression of a perfect gas. The whole model was computationally implemented via a set of finite difference equations. The corresponding computational algorithm of solution was of the explicit, marching type, as for the time discretization, in an upwind scheme, regarding the space discretization. The computational program was implemented in MATLAB. Several experiments were carried out in the natural circulation loop, having the coolant flow rate and the heating power as control parameters. The variables used in the
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bonten, Luc T.C.; Groenenberg, Jan E.; Meesenburg, Henning; Vries, Wim de
2011-01-01
Various dynamic soil chemistry models have been developed to gain insight into impacts of atmospheric deposition of sulphur, nitrogen and other elements on soil and soil solution chemistry. Sorption parameters for anions and cations are generally calibrated for each site, which hampers extrapolation in space and time. On the other hand, recently developed surface complexation models (SCMs) have been successful in predicting ion sorption for static systems using generic parameter sets. This study reports the inclusion of an assemblage of these SCMs in the dynamic soil chemistry model SMARTml and applies this model to a spruce forest site in Solling Germany. Parameters for SCMs were taken from generic datasets and not calibrated. Nevertheless, modelling results for major elements matched observations well. Further, trace metals were included in the model, also using the existing framework of SCMs. The model predicted sorption for most trace elements well. - Highlights: → Surface complexation models can be well applied in field studies. → Soil chemistry under a forest site is adequately modelled using generic parameters. → The model is easily extended with extra elements within the existing framework. → Surface complexation models can show the linkages between major soil chemistry and trace element behaviour. - Surface complexation models with generic parameters make calibration of sorption superfluous in dynamic modelling of deposition impacts on soil chemistry under nature areas.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bonten, Luc T.C., E-mail: luc.bonten@wur.nl [Alterra-Wageningen UR, Soil Science Centre, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen (Netherlands); Groenenberg, Jan E. [Alterra-Wageningen UR, Soil Science Centre, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen (Netherlands); Meesenburg, Henning [Northwest German Forest Research Station, Abt. Umweltkontrolle, Sachgebiet Intensives Umweltmonitoring, Goettingen (Germany); Vries, Wim de [Alterra-Wageningen UR, Soil Science Centre, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen (Netherlands)
2011-10-15
Various dynamic soil chemistry models have been developed to gain insight into impacts of atmospheric deposition of sulphur, nitrogen and other elements on soil and soil solution chemistry. Sorption parameters for anions and cations are generally calibrated for each site, which hampers extrapolation in space and time. On the other hand, recently developed surface complexation models (SCMs) have been successful in predicting ion sorption for static systems using generic parameter sets. This study reports the inclusion of an assemblage of these SCMs in the dynamic soil chemistry model SMARTml and applies this model to a spruce forest site in Solling Germany. Parameters for SCMs were taken from generic datasets and not calibrated. Nevertheless, modelling results for major elements matched observations well. Further, trace metals were included in the model, also using the existing framework of SCMs. The model predicted sorption for most trace elements well. - Highlights: > Surface complexation models can be well applied in field studies. > Soil chemistry under a forest site is adequately modelled using generic parameters. > The model is easily extended with extra elements within the existing framework. > Surface complexation models can show the linkages between major soil chemistry and trace element behaviour. - Surface complexation models with generic parameters make calibration of sorption superfluous in dynamic modelling of deposition impacts on soil chemistry under nature areas.
Modeling the behaviour of shape memory materials under large deformations
Rogovoy, A. A.; Stolbova, O. S.
2017-06-01
In this study, the models describing the behavior of shape memory alloys, ferromagnetic materials and polymers have been constructed, using a formalized approach to develop the constitutive equations for complex media under large deformations. The kinematic and constitutive equations, satisfying the principles of thermodynamics and objectivity, have been derived. The application of the Galerkin procedure to the systems of equations of solid mechanics allowed us to obtain the Lagrange variational equation and variational formulation of the magnetostatics problems. These relations have been tested in the context of the problems of finite deformation in shape memory alloys and ferromagnetic materials during forward and reverse martensitic transformations and in shape memory polymers during forward and reverse relaxation transitions from a highly elastic to a glassy state.
A Stone Resource Assignment Model under the Fuzzy Environment
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Liming Yao
2012-01-01
to tackle a stone resource assignment problem with the aim of decreasing dust and waste water emissions. On the upper level, the local government wants to assign a reasonable exploitation amount to each stone plant so as to minimize total emissions and maximize employment and economic profit. On the lower level, stone plants must reasonably assign stone resources to produce different stone products under the exploitation constraint. To deal with inherent uncertainties, the object functions and constraints are defuzzified using a possibility measure. A fuzzy simulation-based improved simulated annealing algorithm (FS-ISA is designed to search for the Pareto optimal solutions. Finally, a case study is presented to demonstrate the practicality and efficiency of the model. Results and a comparison analysis are presented to highlight the performance of the optimization method, which proves to be very efficient compared with other algorithms.
Oracle estimation of parametric models under boundary constraints.
Wong, Kin Yau; Goldberg, Yair; Fine, Jason P
2016-12-01
In many classical estimation problems, the parameter space has a boundary. In most cases, the standard asymptotic properties of the estimator do not hold when some of the underlying true parameters lie on the boundary. However, without knowledge of the true parameter values, confidence intervals constructed assuming that the parameters lie in the interior are generally over-conservative. A penalized estimation method is proposed in this article to address this issue. An adaptive lasso procedure is employed to shrink the parameters to the boundary, yielding oracle inference which adapt to whether or not the true parameters are on the boundary. When the true parameters are on the boundary, the inference is equivalent to that which would be achieved with a priori knowledge of the boundary, while if the converse is true, the inference is equivalent to that which is obtained in the interior of the parameter space. The method is demonstrated under two practical scenarios, namely the frailty survival model and linear regression with order-restricted parameters. Simulation studies and real data analyses show that the method performs well with realistic sample sizes and exhibits certain advantages over standard methods. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.
An experimental model of mycobacterial infection under corneal flaps
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
C.B.D. Adan
2004-07-01
Full Text Available In order to develop a new experimental animal model of infection with Mycobacterium chelonae in keratomileusis, we conducted a double-blind prospective study on 24 adult male New Zealand rabbits. One eye of each rabbit was submitted to automatic lamellar keratotomy with the automatic corneal shaper under general anesthesia. Eyes were immunosuppressed by a single local injection of methyl prednisolone. Twelve animals were inoculated into the keratomileusis interface with 1 µl of 10(6 heat-inactivated bacteria (heat-inactivated inoculum controls and 12 with 1 µl of 10(6 live bacteria. Trimethoprim drops (0.1%, w/v were used as prophylaxis for the surgical procedure every 4 h (50 µl, qid. Animals were examined by 2 observers under a slit lamp on the 1st, 3rd, 5th, 7th, 11th, 16th, and 23rd postoperative days. Slit lamp photographs were taken to document clinical signs. Animals were sacrificed when corneal disease was detected and corneal samples were taken for microbiological analysis. Eleven of 12 experimental rabbits developed corneal disease, and M. chelonae could be isolated from nine rabbits. Eleven of the 12 controls receiving a heat-inactivated inoculum did not develop corneal disease. M. chelonae was not isolated from any of the control rabbits receiving a heat-inactivated inoculum, or from the healthy cornea of control rabbits. Corneal infection by M. chelonae was successfully induced in rabbits submitted to keratomileusis. To our knowledge, this is the first animal model of M. chelonae infection following corneal flaps for refractive surgery to be described in the literature and can be used for the analysis of therapeutic responses.
Modeling dynamic behavior of superconducting maglev systems under external disturbances
Huang, Chen-Guang; Xue, Cun; Yong, Hua-Dong; Zhou, You-He
2017-08-01
For a maglev system, vertical and lateral displacements of the levitation body may simultaneously occur under external disturbances, which often results in changes in the levitation and guidance forces and even causes some serious malfunctions. To fully understand the effect of external disturbances on the levitation performance, in this work, we build a two-dimensional numerical model on the basis of Newton's second law of motion and a mathematical formulation derived from magnetoquasistatic Maxwell's equations together with a nonlinear constitutive relation between the electric field and the current density. By using this model, we present an analysis of dynamic behavior for two typical maglev systems consisting of an infinitely long superconductor and a guideway of different arrangements of infinitely long parallel permanent magnets. The results show that during the vertical movement, the levitation force is closely associated with the flux motion and the moving velocity of the superconductor. After being disturbed at the working position, the superconductor has a disturbance-induced initial velocity and then starts to periodically vibrate in both lateral and vertical directions. Meanwhile, the lateral and vertical vibration centers gradually drift along their vibration directions. The larger the initial velocity, the faster their vibration centers drift. However, the vertical drift of the vertical vibration center seems to be independent of the direction of the initial velocity. In addition, due to the lateral and vertical drifts, the equilibrium position of the superconductor in the maglev systems is not a space point but a continuous range.
Integrated Bali Cattle Development Model Under Oil Palm Plantation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rasali Hakim Matondang
2015-09-01
Full Text Available Bali cattle have several advantages such as high fertility and carcass percentage, easy adaptation to the new environment as well. Bali cattle productivity has not been optimal yet. This is due to one of the limitation of feed resources, decreasing of grazing and agricultural land. The aim of this paper is to describe Bali cattle development integrated with oil palm plantations, which is expected to improve productivity and increase Bali cattle population. This integration model is carried out by raising Bali cattle under oil palm plantation through nucleus estate scheme model or individual farmers estates business. Some of Bali cattle raising systems have been applied in the integration of palm plantation-Bali cattle. One of the intensive systems can increase daily weight gain of 0.8 kg/head, calfcrop of 35% per year and has the potency for industrial development of feed and organic fertilizer. In the semi-intensive system, it can improve the production of oil palm fruit bunches (PFB more than 10%, increase harvested-crop area to 15 ha/farmer and reduce the amount of inorganic fertilizer. The extensive system can produce calfcrop ³70%, improve ³30% of PFB, increase business scale ³13 cows/farmer and reduce weeding costs ³16%. Integrated Bali cattle development may provide positive added value for both, palm oil business and cattle business.
Model evaluation of denitrification under rapid infiltration basin systems.
Akhavan, Maryam; Imhoff, Paul T; Andres, A Scott; Finsterle, Stefan
2013-09-01
Rapid Infiltration Basin Systems (RIBS) are used for disposing reclaimed wastewater into soil to achieve additional treatment before it recharges groundwater. Effluent from most new sequenced batch reactor wastewater treatment plants is completely nitrified, and denitrification (DNF) is the main reaction for N removal. To characterize effects of complex surface and subsurface flow patterns caused by non-uniform flooding on DNF, a coupled overland flow-vadose zone model is implemented in the multiphase flow and reactive transport simulator TOUGHREACT. DNF is simulated in two representative soils varying the application cycle, hydraulic loading rate, wastewater quality, water table depth, and subsurface heterogeneity. Simulations using the conventional specified flux boundary condition under-predict DNF by as much as 450% in sand and 230% in loamy sand compared to predictions from the coupled overland flow-vadose zone model, indicating that simulating coupled flow is critical for predicting DNF in cases where hydraulic loading rates are not sufficient to spread the wastewater over the whole basin. Smaller ratios of wetting to drying time and larger hydraulic loading rates result in greater water saturations, more anoxic conditions, and faster water transport in the vadose zone, leading to greater DNF. These results in combination with those from different water table depths explain why reported DNF varied with soil type and water table depth in previous field investigations. Across all simulations, cumulative percent DNF varies between 2 and 49%, indicating that NO₃ removal in RIBS may vary widely depending on operational procedures and subsurface conditions. These modeling results improve understanding of DNF in RIBS and suggest operational procedures that may improve NO₃ removal. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Øjelund, Henrik; Sadegh, Payman
2000-01-01
be obtained. This paper presents a new approach for system modelling under partial (global) information (or the so called Gray-box modelling) that seeks to perserve the benefits of the global as well as local methodologies sithin a unified framework. While the proposed technique relies on local approximations......Local function approximations concern fitting low order models to weighted data in neighbourhoods of the points where the approximations are desired. Despite their generality and convenience of use, local models typically suffer, among others, from difficulties arising in physical interpretation...... simultaneously with the (local estimates of) function values. The approach is applied to modelling of a linear time variant dynamic system under prior linear time invariant structure where local regression fails as a result of high dimensionality....
Characteristics and modeling of spruce wood under dynamic compression load
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Eisenacher, Germar
2014-01-01
criterion uses linear interpolation of the strength of constrained and unconstrained spruce wood. Thus multiaxial stress states can be considered. The calculation of the crush tests showed the ability of the model to reproduce the basic strength characteristics of spruce wood. The effect of lateral constraint can be reproduced well due to the uncoupled evolution of the yield surface. On the contrary, the strength is overestimated for load under acute angles, which could be prevented using modified yield surfaces. The effects of strain rate and temperature are generally reproduced well but the scaling factors used should be improved. The calculation of a drop test with a test-package equipped with wood-filled impact limiters confi rmed the model's performance and produced feasible results. However, to create a verified impact limiter model further numerical and experimental investigations are necessary. This work makes an important contribution to the numerical stress analysis in the context of safety cases of transport packages.
Robust nonlinear control of nuclear reactors under model uncertainty
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Park, Moon Ghu
1993-02-01
uncertainty. The performance specification in the boundary layer is also proposed. In the boundary layer, a direct adaptive controller is developed which consists of the adaptive proportional-integral-feed forward (PIF) gains. The essence of the controller is to divide the control into four different terms. Namely, the adaptive P-I-F gains and time-optimal controller are used to accomplish the specific control actions by each term. The robustness of the controller is guaranteed by the feedback of the estimated uncertainty and the performance specification given by the adaptation of PIF gains using the second method of Lyapunov. The newly developed control method is applied to the power tracking control of a nuclear reactor and the simulation results show great improvement in tracking performance compared with the conventional control methods. In addition, a constraint-accommodating adaptive control method is developed. The method is based on a dead-best identified plant model and a simple, but mathematically constructive, adaptation rule for the model-based PI feedback gains. The method is particularly devoted to the considerations on the output constraint. The effectiveness of the controller is shown by application of the method to the power tracking control of Korea Multipurpose Research Reactor (KMRR). The simulation results show robustness against modeling uncertainty and excellent performance under unknown deteriorating actuator condition. It is concluded that the nonlinear control methods developed in this thesis and based on the use of a simple uncertainty estimator and adaptation algorithms for feedback and feedforward gains provide not only robustness against modeling uncertainty but also very fast and smooth performance behavior
Exploration of Disease Markers under Translational Medicine Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rajagopal Krishnamoorthy
2015-06-01
Full Text Available Disease markers are defined as the biomarkers with specific characteristics during the general physical, pathological or therapeutic process, the detection of which can inform the progression of present biological process of organisms. However, the exploration of disease markers is complicated and difficult, and only a few markers can be used in clinical practice and there is no significant difference in the mortality of cancers before and after biomarker exploration. Translational medicine focuses on breaking the blockage between basic medicine and clinical practice. In addition, it also establishes an effective association between researchers engaged on basic scientific discovery and clinical physicians well informed of patients' requirements, and gives particular attentions on how to translate the basic molecular biological research to the most effective and appropriate methods for the diagnosis, treatment and prevention of diseases, hoping to translate basic research into the new therapeutic methods in clinic. Therefore, this study mainly summarized the exploration of disease markers under translational medicine model so as to provide a basis for the translation of basic research results into clinical application.
Modeling of the response under radiation of electronic dosemeters
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Menard, S.
2003-01-01
The simulation with with calculation codes the interactions and the transport of primary and secondary radiations in the detectors allows to reduce the number of developed prototypes and the number of experiments under radiation. The simulation makes possible the determination of the response of the instrument for exposure configurations more extended that these ones of references radiations produced in laboratories. The M.C.N.P.X. allows to transport, over the photons, electrons and neutrons, the charged particles heavier than the electrons and to simulate the radiation - matter interactions for a certain number of particles. The present paper aims to present the interest of the use of the M.C.N.P.X. code in the study, research and evaluation phases of the instrumentation necessary to the dosimetry monitoring. To do that the presentation gives the results of the modeling of a prototype of a equivalent tissue proportional counter (C.P.E.T.) and of the C.R.A.M.A.L. ( radiation protection apparatus marketed by the Eurisys Mesures society). (N.C.)
Wake of a blunt planetary probe model under hypervelocity conditions
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kastell, D.; Hannemann, D.; Eitelberg, G. [DLR Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V., Goettingen (Germany). Inst. fuer Stroemungsmechanik
1998-12-31
The flow in the wake of a planetary probe under hypervelocity re-entry conditions has two idiosyncrasies not present in the conventional (cold) hypersonic flows: the strong dissociation reaction occurring behind the bow shock wave, and the freezing of the chemical reactions of the flow by the rapid expansion at the shoulder of the probe. The aim of the present study was to both understand the relative importance of the two phenomena upon the total heat and pressure loads on a planetary probe and its possible payload as well as to provide experimental validation data for those developing numerical codes for planetary probe design and analysis. For the experimental study an instrumented blunted 140 cone was tested in the High Enthalpy Shock Tunnel in Goettingen (HEG). The numerical calculations were performed with a Thin-Layer Navier-Stokes code which is capable of simulating chemical and thermal nonequilibrium flows. For the forebody loads the prediction methods were very reliable and capable of accounting for the kinetic effects caused by the high specific enthalpy of the flow. On the other side considerable discrepancies between experimental and numerical results for the wake of the model have been observed. (orig.)
Wake of a blunt planetary probe model under hypervelocity conditions
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kastell, D.; Hannemann, D.; Eitelberg, G. (DLR Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V., Goettingen (Germany). Inst. fuer Stroemungsmechanik)
1998-01-01
The flow in the wake of a planetary probe under hypervelocity re-entry conditions has two idiosyncrasies not present in the conventional (cold) hypersonic flows: the strong dissociation reaction occurring behind the bow shock wave, and the freezing of the chemical reactions of the flow by the rapid expansion at the shoulder of the probe. The aim of the present study was to both understand the relative importance of the two phenomena upon the total heat and pressure loads on a planetary probe and its possible payload as well as to provide experimental validation data for those developing numerical codes for planetary probe design and analysis. For the experimental study an instrumented blunted 140 cone was tested in the High Enthalpy Shock Tunnel in Goettingen (HEG). The numerical calculations were performed with a Thin-Layer Navier-Stokes code which is capable of simulating chemical and thermal nonequilibrium flows. For the forebody loads the prediction methods were very reliable and capable of accounting for the kinetic effects caused by the high specific enthalpy of the flow. On the other side considerable discrepancies between experimental and numerical results for the wake of the model have been observed. (orig.)
A unifying model of genome evolution under parsimony.
Paten, Benedict; Zerbino, Daniel R; Hickey, Glenn; Haussler, David
2014-06-19
Parsimony and maximum likelihood methods of phylogenetic tree estimation and parsimony methods for genome rearrangements are central to the study of genome evolution yet to date they have largely been pursued in isolation. We present a data structure called a history graph that offers a practical basis for the analysis of genome evolution. It conceptually simplifies the study of parsimonious evolutionary histories by representing both substitutions and double cut and join (DCJ) rearrangements in the presence of duplications. The problem of constructing parsimonious history graphs thus subsumes related maximum parsimony problems in the fields of phylogenetic reconstruction and genome rearrangement. We show that tractable functions can be used to define upper and lower bounds on the minimum number of substitutions and DCJ rearrangements needed to explain any history graph. These bounds become tight for a special type of unambiguous history graph called an ancestral variation graph (AVG), which constrains in its combinatorial structure the number of operations required. We finally demonstrate that for a given history graph G, a finite set of AVGs describe all parsimonious interpretations of G, and this set can be explored with a few sampling moves. This theoretical study describes a model in which the inference of genome rearrangements and phylogeny can be unified under parsimony.
Corticonic models of brain mechanisms underlying cognition and intelligence
Farhat, Nabil H.
The concern of this review is brain theory or more specifically, in its first part, a model of the cerebral cortex and the way it: (a) interacts with subcortical regions like the thalamus and the hippocampus to provide higher-level-brain functions that underlie cognition and intelligence, (b) handles and represents dynamical sensory patterns imposed by a constantly changing environment, (c) copes with the enormous number of such patterns encountered in a lifetime by means of dynamic memory that offers an immense number of stimulus-specific attractors for input patterns (stimuli) to select from, (d) selects an attractor through a process of “conjugation” of the input pattern with the dynamics of the thalamo-cortical loop, (e) distinguishes between redundant (structured) and non-redundant (random) inputs that are void of information, (f) can do categorical perception when there is access to vast associative memory laid out in the association cortex with the help of the hippocampus, and (g) makes use of “computation” at the edge of chaos and information driven annealing to achieve all this. Other features and implications of the concepts presented for the design of computational algorithms and machines with brain-like intelligence are also discussed. The material and results presented suggest, that a Parametrically Coupled Logistic Map network (PCLMN) is a minimal model of the thalamo-cortical complex and that marrying such a network to a suitable associative memory with re-entry or feedback forms a useful, albeit, abstract model of a cortical module of the brain that could facilitate building a simple artificial brain. In the second part of the review, the results of numerical simulations and drawn conclusions in the first part are linked to the most directly relevant works and views of other workers. What emerges is a picture of brain dynamics on the mesoscopic and macroscopic scales that gives a glimpse of the nature of the long sought after brain code
A Test of the Fundamental Physics Underlying Exoplanet Climate Models
Beatty, Thomas; Keating, Dylan; Cowan, Nick; Gaudi, Scott; Kataria, Tiffany; Fortney, Jonathan; Stassun, Keivan; Collins, Karen; Deming, Drake; Bell, Taylor; Dang, Lisa; Rogers, Tamara; Colon, Knicole
2018-05-01
A fundamental issue in how we understand exoplanet atmospheres is the assumed physical behavior underlying 3D global circulation models (GCMs). Modeling an entire 3D atmosphere is a Herculean task, and so in exoplanet GCMs we generally assume that there are no clouds, no magnetic effects, and chemical equilibrium (e.g., Kataria et al 2016). These simplifying assumptions are computationally necessary, but at the same time their exclusion allows for a large theoretical lee-way when comparing to data. Thus, though significant discrepancies exist between almost all a priori GCM predictions and their corresponding observations, these are assumed to be due to the lack of clouds, or atmospheric drag, or chemical disequilibrium, in the models (e.g., Wong et al. 2016, Stevenson et al. 2017, Lewis et al. 2017, Zhang et al. 2018). Since these effects compete with one another and have large uncertainties, this makes tests of the fundamental physics in GCMs extremely difficult. To rectify this, we propose to use 88.4 hours of Spitzer time to observe 3.6um and 4.5um phase curves of the transiting giant planet KELT-9b. KELT-9b has an observed dayside temperature of 4600K (Gaudi et al. 2017), which means that there will very likely be no clouds on the day- or nightside, and is hot enough that the atmosphere should be close to local chemical equilibrium. Additionally, we plan to leverage KELT-9b's high temperature to make the first measurement of global wind speed on an exoplanet (Bell & Cowan 2018), giving a constraint on atmospheric drag and magnetic effects. Combined, this means KELT-9b is close to a real-world GCM, without most of the effects present on lower temperature planets. Additionally, since KELT-9b orbits an extremely bright host star these will be the highest signal-to-noise ratio phase curves taken with Spitzer by more than a factor of two. This gives us a unique opportunity to make the first precise and direct investigation into the fundamental physics that are the
Proton Therapy Expansion Under Current United States Reimbursement Models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kerstiens, John [Indiana University Health Proton Therapy Center, Bloomington, Indiana (United States); Johnstone, Peter A.S., E-mail: pajohnst@iupui.edu [Indiana University Health Proton Therapy Center, Bloomington, Indiana (United States); Department of Radiation Oncology, Indiana University School of Medicine, Indianapolis, Indiana (United States)
2014-06-01
Purpose: To determine whether all the existing and planned proton beam therapy (PBT) centers in the United States can survive on a local patient mix that is dictated by insurers, not by number of patients. Methods and Materials: We determined current and projected cancer rates for 10 major US metropolitan areas. Using published utilization rates, we calculated patient percentages who are candidates for PBT. Then, on the basis of current published insurer coverage policies, we applied our experience of what would be covered to determine the net number of patients for whom reimbursement is expected. Having determined the net number of covered patients, we applied our average beam delivery times to determine the total number of minutes needed to treat that patient over the course of their treatment. We then calculated our expected annual patient capacity per treatment room to determine the appropriate number of treatment rooms for the area. Results: The population of patients who will be both PBT candidates and will have treatments reimbursed by insurance is significantly smaller than the population who should receive PBT. Coverage decisions made by insurers reduce the number of PBT rooms that are economically viable. Conclusions: The expansion of PBT centers in the US is not sustainable under the current reimbursement model. Viability of new centers will be limited to those operating in larger regional metropolitan areas, and few metropolitan areas in the US can support multiple centers. In general, 1-room centers require captive (non–PBT-served) populations of approximately 1,000,000 lives to be economically viable, and a large center will require a population of >4,000,000 lives. In areas with smaller populations or where or a PBT center already exists, new centers require subsidy.
Comparison of joint modeling and landmarking for dynamic prediction under an illness-death model.
Suresh, Krithika; Taylor, Jeremy M G; Spratt, Daniel E; Daignault, Stephanie; Tsodikov, Alexander
2017-11-01
Dynamic prediction incorporates time-dependent marker information accrued during follow-up to improve personalized survival prediction probabilities. At any follow-up, or "landmark", time, the residual time distribution for an individual, conditional on their updated marker values, can be used to produce a dynamic prediction. To satisfy a consistency condition that links dynamic predictions at different time points, the residual time distribution must follow from a prediction function that models the joint distribution of the marker process and time to failure, such as a joint model. To circumvent the assumptions and computational burden associated with a joint model, approximate methods for dynamic prediction have been proposed. One such method is landmarking, which fits a Cox model at a sequence of landmark times, and thus is not a comprehensive probability model of the marker process and the event time. Considering an illness-death model, we derive the residual time distribution and demonstrate that the structure of the Cox model baseline hazard and covariate effects under the landmarking approach do not have simple form. We suggest some extensions of the landmark Cox model that should provide a better approximation. We compare the performance of the landmark models with joint models using simulation studies and cognitive aging data from the PAQUID study. We examine the predicted probabilities produced under both methods using data from a prostate cancer study, where metastatic clinical failure is a time-dependent covariate for predicting death following radiation therapy. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.
Estimation of a multivariate mean under model selection uncertainty
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Georges Nguefack-Tsague
2014-05-01
Full Text Available Model selection uncertainty would occur if we selected a model based on one data set and subsequently applied it for statistical inferences, because the "correct" model would not be selected with certainty. When the selection and inference are based on the same dataset, some additional problems arise due to the correlation of the two stages (selection and inference. In this paper model selection uncertainty is considered and model averaging is proposed. The proposal is related to the theory of James and Stein of estimating more than three parameters from independent normal observations. We suggest that a model averaging scheme taking into account the selection procedure could be more appropriate than model selection alone. Some properties of this model averaging estimator are investigated; in particular we show using Stein's results that it is a minimax estimator and can outperform Stein-type estimators.
Reservoir management under geological uncertainty using fast model update
Hanea, R.; Evensen, G.; Hustoft, L.; Ek, T.; Chitu, A.; Wilschut, F.
2015-01-01
Statoil is implementing "Fast Model Update (FMU)," an integrated and automated workflow for reservoir modeling and characterization. FMU connects all steps and disciplines from seismic depth conversion to prediction and reservoir management taking into account relevant reservoir uncertainty. FMU
Validation of spectral gas radiation models under oxyfuel conditions
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Becher, Johann Valentin
2013-05-15
Combustion of hydrocarbon fuels with pure oxygen results in a different flue gas composition than combustion with air. Standard computational-fluid-dynamics (CFD) spectral gas radiation models for air combustion are therefore out of their validity range in oxyfuel combustion. This thesis provides a common spectral basis for the validation of new spectral models. A literature review about fundamental gas radiation theory, spectral modeling and experimental methods provides the reader with a basic understanding of the topic. In the first results section, this thesis validates detailed spectral models with high resolution spectral measurements in a gas cell with the aim of recommending one model as the best benchmark model. In the second results section, spectral measurements from a turbulent natural gas flame - as an example for a technical combustion process - are compared to simulated spectra based on measured gas atmospheres. The third results section compares simplified spectral models to the benchmark model recommended in the first results section and gives a ranking of the proposed models based on their accuracy. A concluding section gives recommendations for the selection and further development of simplified spectral radiation models. Gas cell transmissivity spectra in the spectral range of 2.4 - 5.4 {mu}m of water vapor and carbon dioxide in the temperature range from 727 C to 1500 C and at different concentrations were compared in the first results section at a nominal resolution of 32 cm{sup -1} to line-by-line models from different databases, two statistical-narrow-band models and the exponential-wide-band model. The two statistical-narrow-band models EM2C and RADCAL showed good agreement with a maximal band transmissivity deviation of 3 %. The exponential-wide-band model showed a deviation of 6 %. The new line-by-line database HITEMP2010 had the lowest band transmissivity deviation of 2.2% and was therefore recommended as a reference model for the
Mathematical Modeling of Wastewater Oxidation under Microgravity Conditions
Boyun Guo; Donald W. Holder; David S. Schechter
2005-01-01
Volatile removal assembly (VRA) is a module installed in the International Space Station for removing contaminants (volatile organics) in the wastewater produced by the crew. The VRA contains a slim pack bed reactor to perform catalyst oxidation of the wastewater at elevated pressure and temperature under microgravity conditions. Optimal design of the reactor requires a thorough understanding about how the reactor performs under microgravity conditions. The objective of this study was to theo...
Numerical Simulation of the Heston Model under Stochastic Correlation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Long Teng
2017-12-01
Full Text Available Stochastic correlation models have become increasingly important in financial markets. In order to be able to price vanilla options in stochastic volatility and correlation models, in this work, we study the extension of the Heston model by imposing stochastic correlations driven by a stochastic differential equation. We discuss the efficient algorithms for the extended Heston model by incorporating stochastic correlations. Our numerical experiments show that the proposed algorithms can efficiently provide highly accurate results for the extended Heston by including stochastic correlations. By investigating the effect of stochastic correlations on the implied volatility, we find that the performance of the Heston model can be proved by including stochastic correlations.
Estimation and prediction under local volatility jump-diffusion model
Kim, Namhyoung; Lee, Younhee
2018-02-01
Volatility is an important factor in operating a company and managing risk. In the portfolio optimization and risk hedging using the option, the value of the option is evaluated using the volatility model. Various attempts have been made to predict option value. Recent studies have shown that stochastic volatility models and jump-diffusion models reflect stock price movements accurately. However, these models have practical limitations. Combining them with the local volatility model, which is widely used among practitioners, may lead to better performance. In this study, we propose a more effective and efficient method of estimating option prices by combining the local volatility model with the jump-diffusion model and apply it using both artificial and actual market data to evaluate its performance. The calibration process for estimating the jump parameters and local volatility surfaces is divided into three stages. We apply the local volatility model, stochastic volatility model, and local volatility jump-diffusion model estimated by the proposed method to KOSPI 200 index option pricing. The proposed method displays good estimation and prediction performance.
He, L; Huang, G H; Lu, H W
2010-04-15
Solving groundwater remediation optimization problems based on proxy simulators can usually yield optimal solutions differing from the "true" ones of the problem. This study presents a new stochastic optimization model under modeling uncertainty and parameter certainty (SOMUM) and the associated solution method for simultaneously addressing modeling uncertainty associated with simulator residuals and optimizing groundwater remediation processes. This is a new attempt different from the previous modeling efforts. The previous ones focused on addressing uncertainty in physical parameters (i.e. soil porosity) while this one aims to deal with uncertainty in mathematical simulator (arising from model residuals). Compared to the existing modeling approaches (i.e. only parameter uncertainty is considered), the model has the advantages of providing mean-variance analysis for contaminant concentrations, mitigating the effects of modeling uncertainties on optimal remediation strategies, offering confidence level of optimal remediation strategies to system designers, and reducing computational cost in optimization processes. 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
He, L., E-mail: li.he@ryerson.ca [Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Architecture and Science, Ryerson University, 350 Victoria Street, Toronto, Ontario, M5B 2K3 (Canada); Huang, G.H. [Environmental Systems Engineering Program, Faculty of Engineering, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan, S4S 0A2 (Canada); College of Urban Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871 (China); Lu, H.W. [Environmental Systems Engineering Program, Faculty of Engineering, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan, S4S 0A2 (Canada)
2010-04-15
Solving groundwater remediation optimization problems based on proxy simulators can usually yield optimal solutions differing from the 'true' ones of the problem. This study presents a new stochastic optimization model under modeling uncertainty and parameter certainty (SOMUM) and the associated solution method for simultaneously addressing modeling uncertainty associated with simulator residuals and optimizing groundwater remediation processes. This is a new attempt different from the previous modeling efforts. The previous ones focused on addressing uncertainty in physical parameters (i.e. soil porosity) while this one aims to deal with uncertainty in mathematical simulator (arising from model residuals). Compared to the existing modeling approaches (i.e. only parameter uncertainty is considered), the model has the advantages of providing mean-variance analysis for contaminant concentrations, mitigating the effects of modeling uncertainties on optimal remediation strategies, offering confidence level of optimal remediation strategies to system designers, and reducing computational cost in optimization processes.
Response of a DSNP pressurizer model under accident conditions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Saphier, D.; Kallfelz, J.; Belblidia, L.
1986-01-01
Recently a new pressurizer model was developed for the DSNP simulation language. The model was connected to a simulation of the Trojan pressurized water reactor (PWR) and tested by simulating a loss-of-off-site power (LOSP) anticipated transient without scram. The results compare well to a similar study performed using the RELAP code. The pressurizer model and its response to the LOSP accident are presented
A volume flexible inventory model with trapezoidal demand under inflation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
kapil mehrotra
2014-02-01
Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 Abstract This article experiment. Further, the effects of different parameters are analysed by performing sensitivity analyses on the optimal policy. explores an economic production quantity model (EPQ model for deteriorating items with time-dependent demand following trapezoidal pattern taking the volume flexibility into account. We have also considered the inflation and time value of money. The solution of the model aims at determining the optimal production run-time in order to maximize the profit. The model is also illustrated by means of numerical
Modeling delamination of FRP laminates under low velocity impact
Jiang, Z.; Wen, H. M.; Ren, S. L.
2017-09-01
Fiber reinforced plastic laminates (FRP) have been increasingly used in various engineering such as aeronautics, astronautics, transportation, naval architecture and their impact response and failure are a major concern in academic community. A new numerical model is suggested for fiber reinforced plastic composites. The model considers that FRP laminates has been constituted by unidirectional laminated plates with adhesive layers. A modified adhesive layer damage model that considering strain rate effects is incorporated into the ABAQUS / EXPLICIT finite element program by the user-defined material subroutine VUMAT. It transpires that the present model predicted delamination is in good agreement with the experimental results for low velocity impact.
Multitasking TORT Under UNICOS: Parallel Performance Models and Measurements
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Azmy, Y.Y.; Barnett, D.A.
1999-01-01
The existing parallel algorithms in the TORT discrete ordinates were updated to function in a UNI-COS environment. A performance model for the parallel overhead was derived for the existing algorithms. The largest contributors to the parallel overhead were identified and a new algorithm was developed. A parallel overhead model was also derived for the new algorithm. The results of the comparison of parallel performance models were compared to applications of the code to two TORT standard test problems and a large production problem. The parallel performance models agree well with the measured parallel overhead
Multitasking TORT under UNICOS: Parallel performance models and measurements
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Barnett, A.; Azmy, Y.Y.
1999-01-01
The existing parallel algorithms in the TORT discrete ordinates code were updated to function in a UNICOS environment. A performance model for the parallel overhead was derived for the existing algorithms. The largest contributors to the parallel overhead were identified and a new algorithm was developed. A parallel overhead model was also derived for the new algorithm. The results of the comparison of parallel performance models were compared to applications of the code to two TORT standard test problems and a large production problem. The parallel performance models agree well with the measured parallel overhead
Robles, Zuzuky; Anjum, Sahar; Garey, Lorra; Kauffman, Brooke Y; Rodríguez-Cano, Rubén; Langdon, Kirsten J; Neighbors, Clayton; Reitzel, Lorraine R; Zvolensky, Michael J
2017-07-01
Little work has focused on the underlying mechanisms that may link financial strain and smoking processes. The current study tested the hypothesis that financial strain would exert an indirect effect on cognitive-based smoking processes via depressive symptoms. Three clinically significant dependent variables linked to the maintenance of smoking were evaluated: negative affect reduction motives, negative mood abstinence expectancies, and perceived barriers for quitting. Participants included 102 adult daily smokers (M age =33.0years, SD=13.60; 35.3% female) recruited from the community to participate in a self-guided (unaided; no psychological or pharmacological intervention) smoking cessation study. Results indicated that depressive symptoms explain, in part, the relation between financial strain and smoking motives for negative affect reduction, negative mood abstinence expectancies, and perceived barriers for quitting. Results indicate that smoking interventions for individuals with high levels of financial strain may potentially benefit from the addition of therapeutic tactics aimed at reducing depression. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Li, T.; Hasegawa, T.; Yin, X.; Zhu, Y.; Boote, K.; Adam, M.; Bregaglio, S.; Buis, S.; Confalonieri, R.; Fumoto, T.; Gaydon, D.; Marcaida III, M.; Nakagawa, H.; Oriol, P.; Ruane, A.C.; Ruget, F.; Singh, B.; Singh, U.; Tang, L.; Yoshida, H.; Zhang, Z.; Bouman, B.
2015-01-01
Predicting rice (Oryza sativa) productivity under future climates is important for global food security. Ecophysiological crop models in combination with climate model outputs are commonly used in yield prediction, but uncertainties associated with crop models remain largely unquantified. We
Modeling detour behavior of pedestrian dynamics under different conditions
Qu, Yunchao; Xiao, Yao; Wu, Jianjun; Tang, Tao; Gao, Ziyou
2018-02-01
Pedestrian simulation approach has been widely used to reveal the human behavior and evaluate the performance of crowd evacuation. In the existing pedestrian simulation models, the social force model is capable of predicting many collective phenomena. Detour behavior occurs in many cases, and the important behavior is a dominate factor of the crowd evacuation efficiency. However, limited attention has been attracted for analyzing and modeling the characteristics of detour behavior. In this paper, a modified social force model integrated by Voronoi diagram is proposed to calculate the detour direction and preferred velocity. Besides, with the consideration of locations and velocities of neighbor pedestrians, a Logit-based choice model is built to describe the detour direction choice. The proposed model is applied to analyze pedestrian dynamics in a corridor scenario with either unidirectional or bidirectional flow, and a building scenario in real-world. Simulation results show that the modified social force model including detour behavior could reduce the frequency of collision and deadlock, increase the average speed of the crowd, and predict more practical crowd dynamics with detour behavior. This model can also be potentially applied to understand the pedestrian dynamics and design emergent management strategies for crowd evacuations.
A model for optimization of process integration investments under uncertainty
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Svensson, Elin; Stroemberg, Ann-Brith; Patriksson, Michael
2011-01-01
The long-term economic outcome of energy-related industrial investment projects is difficult to evaluate because of uncertain energy market conditions. In this article, a general, multistage, stochastic programming model for the optimization of investments in process integration and industrial energy technologies is proposed. The problem is formulated as a mixed-binary linear programming model where uncertainties are modelled using a scenario-based approach. The objective is to maximize the expected net present value of the investments which enables heat savings and decreased energy imports or increased energy exports at an industrial plant. The proposed modelling approach enables a long-term planning of industrial, energy-related investments through the simultaneous optimization of immediate and later decisions. The stochastic programming approach is also suitable for modelling what is possibly complex process integration constraints. The general model formulation presented here is a suitable basis for more specialized case studies dealing with optimization of investments in energy efficiency. -- Highlights: → Stochastic programming approach to long-term planning of process integration investments. → Extensive mathematical model formulation. → Multi-stage investment decisions and scenario-based modelling of uncertain energy prices. → Results illustrate how investments made now affect later investment and operation opportunities. → Approach for evaluation of robustness with respect to variations in probability distribution.
Parabolic Free Boundary Price Formation Models Under Market Size Fluctuations
Markowich, Peter A.; Teichmann, Josef; Wolfram, Marie Therese
2016-01-01
In this paper we propose an extension of the Lasry-Lions price formation model which includes uctuations of the numbers of buyers and vendors. We analyze the model in the case of deterministic and stochastic market size uctuations and present
A model for cooling systems analysis under natural convection
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Santos, S.J. dos.
1988-01-01
The present work analyses thermosyphons and their non dimensional numbers. The mathematical model considers constant pressure, single-phase incompressible flow. It simulates both open and closed thermosyphons, and deals with heat sources like PWR cores of electrical heaters and cold sinks like heat exchangers or reservoirs. A computer code named STRATS was developed based on this model. (author)
Mathematical Modeling of Column-Base Connections under Monotonic Loading
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gholamreza Abdollahzadeh
2014-12-01
Full Text Available Some considerable damage to steel structures during the Hyogo-ken Nanbu Earthquake occurred. Among them, many exposed-type column bases failed in several consistent patterns, such as brittle base plate fracture, excessive bolt elongation, unexpected early bolt failure, and inferior construction work, etc. The lessons from these phenomena led to the need for improved understanding of column base behavior. Joint behavior must be modeled when analyzing semi-rigid frames, which is associated with a mathematical model of the moment–rotation curve. The most accurate model uses continuous nonlinear functions. This article presents three areas of steel joint research: (1 analysis methods of semi-rigid joints; (2 prediction methods for the mechanical behavior of joints; (3 mathematical representations of the moment–rotation curve. In the current study, a new exponential model to depict the moment–rotation relationship of column base connection is proposed. The proposed nonlinear model represents an approach to the prediction of M–θ curves, taking into account the possible failure modes and the deformation characteristics of the connection elements. The new model has three physical parameters, along with two curve-fitted factors. These physical parameters are generated from dimensional details of the connection, as well as the material properties. The M–θ curves obtained by the model are compared with published connection tests and 3D FEM research. The proposed mathematical model adequately comes close to characterizing M–θ behavior through the full range of loading/rotations. As a result, modeling of column base connections using the proposed mathematical model can give crucial beforehand information, and overcome the disadvantages of time consuming workmanship and cost of experimental studies.
Modelling ship operational reliability over a mission under regular inspections
Christer, A.H.; Lee, S.K.
1997-01-01
A ship is required to operate for a fixed mission period. Should a critical item of equipment fail at sea, the ship is subject to a costly event with potentially high risk to ship and crew. Given warning of a pending defect, the ship can try to return to port under its own power and thus attempt to
Propulsion Physics Under the Changing Density Field Model
Robertson, Glen A.
2011-01-01
To grow as a space faring race, future spaceflight systems will requires new propulsion physics. Specifically a propulsion physics model that does not require mass ejection without limiting the high thrust necessary to accelerate within or beyond our solar system and return within a normal work period or lifetime. In 2004 Khoury and Weltman produced a density dependent cosmology theory they called Chameleon Cosmology, as at its nature, it is hidden within known physics. This theory represents a scalar field within and about an object, even in the vacuum. Whereby, these scalar fields can be viewed as vacuum energy fields with definable densities that permeate all matter; having implications to dark matter/energy with universe acceleration properties; implying a new force mechanism for propulsion physics. Using Chameleon Cosmology, the author has developed a new propulsion physics model, called the Changing Density Field (CDF) Model. This model relates to density changes in these density fields, where the density field density changes are related to the acceleration of matter within an object. These density changes in turn change how an object couples to the surrounding density fields. Whereby, thrust is achieved by causing a differential in the coupling to these density fields about an object. Since the model indicates that the density of the density field in an object can be changed by internal mass acceleration, even without exhausting mass, the CDF model implies a new propellant-less propulsion physics model
Modeling U.S. water resources under climate change
Blanc, Elodie; Strzepek, Kenneth; Schlosser, Adam; Jacoby, Henry; Gueneau, Arthur; Fant, Charles; Rausch, Sebastian; Reilly, John
2014-04-01
Water is at the center of a complex and dynamic system involving climatic, biological, hydrological, physical, and human interactions. We demonstrate a new modeling system that integrates climatic and hydrological determinants of water supply with economic and biological drivers of sectoral and regional water requirement while taking into account constraints of engineered water storage and transport systems. This modeling system is an extension of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model framework and is unique in its consistent treatment of factors affecting water resources and water requirements. Irrigation demand, for example, is driven by the same climatic conditions that drive evapotranspiration in natural systems and runoff, and future scenarios of water demand for power plant cooling are consistent with energy scenarios driving climate change. To illustrate the modeling system we select "wet" and "dry" patterns of precipitation for the United States from general circulation models used in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). Results suggest that population and economic growth alone would increase water stress in the United States through mid-century. Climate change generally increases water stress with the largest increases in the Southwest. By identifying areas of potential stress in the absence of specific adaptation responses, the modeling system can help direct attention to water planning that might then limit use or add storage in potentially stressed regions, while illustrating how avoiding climate change through mitigation could change likely outcomes.
A particle model of rolling grain ripples under waves
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Andersen, Ken Haste
2001-01-01
A simple model for the formation of rolling grain ripples on a flat sand bed by the oscillatory flow generated by a surface wave is presented. An equation of motion is derived for the individual ripples, seen as "particles," on the otherwise flat bed. The model accounts for the initial appearance...... of the ripples, the subsequent coarsening of the ripples, and the final equilibrium state. The model is related to the physical parameters of the problem, and an analytical approximation for the equilibrium spacing of the ripples is developed. It is found that the spacing between the ripples scales...
Calibration of CORSIM models under saturated traffic flow conditions.
2013-09-01
This study proposes a methodology to calibrate microscopic traffic flow simulation models. : The proposed methodology has the capability to calibrate simultaneously all the calibration : parameters as well as demand patterns for any network topology....
A transient single particle model under FCI conditions
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
LI Xiao-Yan; SHANG Zhi; XU Ji-Jun
2005-01-01
The paper is focused on the coupling effect between film boiling heat transfer and evaporation drag around a hot-particle in cold liquid. Based on the continuity, momentum and energy equations of the vapor film, a transient two-dimensional single particle model has been established. This paper contains a detailed description of HPMC (High-temperature Particle Moving in Coolant) model for studying some aspects of the premixing stage of fuel-coolant interactions (FCIs). The transient process of high-temperature particles moving in coolant can be simulated. Comparisons between the experiment results and the calculations using HPMC model demonstrate that HPMC model achieves a good agreement in predicting the time-varying characteristic of high-temperature spheres moving in coolant.
Sandpile models with and without an underlying spatial structure
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Christensen, K.; Olami, Z.
1993-01-01
We present a simple mean-field model for the sandpile model introduced by Bak, Tang, and Wiesenfeld (BTW) [Phys. Rev. Lett. 59, 381 (1987)]. In the mean-field model we are able to pinpoint the process of self-organization as well as the emerging scale invariance displayed as a power-law distribution of avalanche sizes. We discuss the BTW sandpile model on a lattice and show that the dynamical behavior can be expressed as a transport problem. This implies that the average avalanche size scales with the system size, and additional heuristic arguments related to the transport properties more than indicate the origin of the power-law behavior. We review recent work in which scaling relations and additional constraints between the various critical exponents are addressed. We demonstrate that some of the proposed relations are inconsistent. We present a coherent ''theory'' in which the scaling relations along with additional constraints leave only one exponent unknown
Model Justified Search Algorithms for Scheduling Under Uncertainty
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Howe, Adele; Whitley, L. D
2008-01-01
.... We also identified plateaus as a significant barrier to superb performance of local search on scheduling and have studied several canonical discrete optimization problems to discover and model the nature of plateaus...
Modelling Dominance Hierarchies Under Winner and Loser Effects.
Kura, Klodeta; Broom, Mark; Kandler, Anne
2015-06-01
Animals that live in groups commonly form themselves into dominance hierarchies which are used to allocate important resources such as access to mating opportunities and food. In this paper, we develop a model of dominance hierarchy formation based upon the concept of winner and loser effects using a simulation-based model and consider the linearity of our hierarchy using existing and new statistical measures. Two models are analysed: when each individual in a group does not know the real ability of their opponents to win a fight and when they can estimate their opponents' ability every time they fight. This estimation may be accurate or fall within an error bound. For both models, we investigate if we can achieve hierarchy linearity, and if so, when it is established. We are particularly interested in the question of how many fights are necessary to establish a dominance hierarchy.
Finite element modeling of Balsa wood structures under severe loadings
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Toson, B.; Pesque, J.J.; Viot, P.
2014-01-01
In order to compute, in various situations, the requirements for transporting packages using Balsa wood as an energy absorber, a constitutive model is needed that takes into account all of the specific characteristics of the wood, such as its anisotropy, compressibility, softening, densification, and strain rate dependence. Such a model must also include the treatment of rupture of the wood when it is in traction. The complete description of wood behavior is not sufficient: robustness is also necessary because this model has to work in presence of large deformations and of many other external nonlinear phenomena in the surrounding structures. We propose such a constitutive model that we have developed using the commercial finite element package ABAQUS. The necessary data were acquired through an extensive compilation of the existing literature with the augmentation of personal measurements. Numerous validation tests are presented that represent different impact situations that a transportation cask might endure. (authors)
A Scalable Heuristic for Viral Marketing Under the Tipping Model
2013-09-01
Flixster is a social media website that allows users to share reviews and other information about cinema . [35] It was extracted in Dec. 2010. – FourSquare...work of Reichman were developed independently . We also note that Reichman performs no experimental evaluation of the algorithm. A Scalable Heuristic...other dif- fusion models, such as the independent cascade model [21] and evolutionary graph theory [25] as well as probabilistic variants of the
Formal modeling of a system of chemical reactions under uncertainty.
Ghosh, Krishnendu; Schlipf, John
2014-10-01
We describe a novel formalism representing a system of chemical reactions, with imprecise rates of reactions and concentrations of chemicals, and describe a model reduction method, pruning, based on the chemical properties. We present two algorithms, midpoint approximation and interval approximation, for construction of efficient model abstractions with uncertainty in data. We evaluate computational feasibility by posing queries in computation tree logic (CTL) on a prototype of extracellular-signal-regulated kinase (ERK) pathway.
Parabolic Free Boundary Price Formation Models Under Market Size Fluctuations
Markowich, Peter A.
2016-10-04
In this paper we propose an extension of the Lasry-Lions price formation model which includes uctuations of the numbers of buyers and vendors. We analyze the model in the case of deterministic and stochastic market size uctuations and present results on the long time asymptotic behavior and numerical evidence and conjectures on periodic, almost periodic, and stochastic uctuations. The numerical simulations extend the theoretical statements and give further insights into price formation dynamics.
MATHEMATICAL MODELLING OF AIRCRAFT PILOTING PROSSESS UNDER SPECIFIED FLIGHT PATH
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
И. Кузнецов
2012-04-01
Full Text Available The author suggests mathematical model of pilot’s activity as follow up system and mathematical methods of pilot’s activity description. The main idea of the model is flight path forming and aircraft stabilization on it during instrument flight. Input of given follow up system is offered to be aircraft deflection from given path observed by pilot by means of sight and output is offered to be pilot’s regulating actions for aircraft stabilization on flight path.
Reflood modeling under oscillatory flow conditions with Cathare
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kelly, J M; Bartak, J; Janicot, A
1994-12-31
The problems and the current status in oscillatory reflood modelling with the CATHARE code are presented. The physical models used in CATHARE for reflood modelling predicted globally very well the forced reflood experiments. Significant drawbacks existed in predicting experiments with oscillatory flow (both forced and gravity driven). First, the more simple case of forced flow oscillations was analyzed. Modelling improvements within the reflooding package resolved the problem of quench front blockages and unphysical oscillations. Good agreements with experiment for the ERSEC forced oscillations reflood tests is now obtained. For gravity driven reflood, CATHARE predicted sustained flow oscillations during 100-150 s after the start of the reflood, whereas in the experiment flow oscillations were observed only during 25-30 s. Possible areas of modeling improvements are identified and several new correlations are suggested. The first test calculations of the BETHSY test 6.7A4 have shown that the oscillations are mostly sensitive to heat flux modeling downstream of the quench front. A much better agreement between CATHARE results and the experiment was obtained. However, further effort is necessary to obtain globally satisfactory predictions of gravity driven system reflood tests. (authors) 6 figs., 35 refs.
Reflood modeling under oscillatory flow conditions with Cathare
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kelly, J.M.; Bartak, J.; Janicot, A.
1993-01-01
The problems and the current status in oscillatory reflood modelling with the CATHARE code are presented. The physical models used in CATHARE for reflood modelling predicted globally very well the forced reflood experiments. Significant drawbacks existed in predicting experiments with oscillatory flow (both forced and gravity driven). First, the more simple case of forced flow oscillations was analyzed. Modelling improvements within the reflooding package resolved the problem of quench front blockages and unphysical oscillations. Good agreements with experiment for the ERSEC forced oscillations reflood tests is now obtained. For gravity driven reflood, CATHARE predicted sustained flow oscillations during 100-150 s after the start of the reflood, whereas in the experiment flow oscillations were observed only during 25-30 s. Possible areas of modeling improvements are identified and several new correlations are suggested. The first test calculations of the BETHSY test 6.7A4 have shown that the oscillations are mostly sensitive to heat flux modeling downstream of the quench front. A much better agreement between CATHARE results and the experiment was obtained. However, further effort is necessary to obtain globally satisfactory predictions of gravity driven system reflood tests. (authors) 6 figs., 35 refs
Mathematic modelling of circular cylinder deformation under inner grouwth
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A. V. Siasiev
2009-09-01
Full Text Available A task on the intensive deformed state (IDS of a viscoelastic declivous cylinder, which is grown under the action of inner pressure, is considered. The process of continuous increase takes a place on an internal radius so, that a radius and pressure change on set to the given law. The special case of linear law of creeping is considered, and also numeral results are presented as the graphs of temporal dependence of tensions and moving for different points of cylinder.
Calibration under uncertainty for finite element models of masonry monuments
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Atamturktur, Sezer,; Hemez, Francois,; Unal, Cetin
2010-02-01
Historical unreinforced masonry buildings often include features such as load bearing unreinforced masonry vaults and their supporting framework of piers, fill, buttresses, and walls. The masonry vaults of such buildings are among the most vulnerable structural components and certainly among the most challenging to analyze. The versatility of finite element (FE) analyses in incorporating various constitutive laws, as well as practically all geometric configurations, has resulted in the widespread use of the FE method for the analysis of complex unreinforced masonry structures over the last three decades. However, an FE model is only as accurate as its input parameters, and there are two fundamental challenges while defining FE model input parameters: (1) material properties and (2) support conditions. The difficulties in defining these two aspects of the FE model arise from the lack of knowledge in the common engineering understanding of masonry behavior. As a result, engineers are unable to define these FE model input parameters with certainty, and, inevitably, uncertainties are introduced to the FE model.
Modeling of a bioethanol combustion engine under different operating conditions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hedfi, Hachem; Jedli, Hedi; Jbara, Abdessalem; Slimi, Khalifa
2014-01-01
Highlights: • Bioethanol/gasoline blends’ fuel effects on engine’s efficiency, CO and NOx emissions. • Fuel consumption and EGR optimizations with respect to estimated engine’s work. • Ignition timing and blends’ effects on engine’s efficiency. • Rich mixture, gasoline/bioethanol blends and EGR effects on engine’s efficiency. - Abstract: A physical model based on a thermodynamic analysis was designed to characterize the combustion reaction parameters. The time-variations of pressure and temperature required for the calculation of specific heat ratio are obtained from the solution of energy conservation equation. The chemical combustion of biofuel is modeled by an overall reaction in two-steps. The rich mixture and EGR were varied to obtain the optimum operating conditions for the engine. The NOx formation is modeled by using an eight-species six-step mechanism. The effect of various formation steps of NOx in combustion is considered via a phenomenological model of combustion speed. This simplified model, which has been validated by the most available published results, is used to characterize and control, in real time, the impact of biofuel on engine performances and NOx emissions as well. It has been demonstrated that a delay of the ignition timing leads to an increase of the gas mixture temperature and cylinder pressure. Furthermore, it has been found that the CO is lower near the stoichiometry. Nevertheless, we notice that lower rich mixture values result in small NOx emission rates
Thermodynamically consistent model of brittle oil shales under overpressure
Izvekov, Oleg
2016-04-01
The concept of dual porosity is a common way for simulation of oil shale production. In the frame of this concept the porous fractured media is considered as superposition of two permeable continua with mass exchange. As a rule the concept doesn't take into account such as the well-known phenomenon as slip along natural fractures, overpressure in low permeability matrix and so on. Overpressure can lead to development of secondary fractures in low permeability matrix in the process of drilling and pressure reduction during production. In this work a new thermodynamically consistent model which generalizes the model of dual porosity is proposed. Particularities of the model are as follows. The set of natural fractures is considered as permeable continuum. Damage mechanics is applied to simulation of secondary fractures development in low permeability matrix. Slip along natural fractures is simulated in the frame of plasticity theory with Drucker-Prager criterion.
Behavioural modelling of irrigation decision making under water scarcity
Foster, T.; Brozovic, N.; Butler, A. P.
2013-12-01
Providing effective policy solutions to aquifer depletion caused by abstraction for irrigation is a key challenge for socio-hydrology. However, most crop production functions used in hydrological models do not capture the intraseasonal nature of irrigation planning, or the importance of well yield in land and water use decisions. Here we develop a method for determining stochastic intraseasonal water use that is based on observed farmer behaviour but is also theoretically consistent with dynamically optimal decision making. We use the model to (i) analyse the joint land and water use decision by farmers; (ii) to assess changes in behaviour and production risk in response to water scarcity; and (iii) to understand the limits of applicability of current methods in policy design. We develop a biophysical model of water-limited crop yield building on the AquaCrop model. The model is calibrated and applied to case studies of irrigated corn production in Nebraska and Texas. We run the model iteratively, using long-term climate records, to define two formulations of the crop-water production function: (i) the aggregate relationship between total seasonal irrigation and yield (typical of current approaches); and (ii) the stochastic response of yield and total seasonal irrigation to the choice of an intraseasonal soil moisture target and irrigated area. Irrigated area (the extensive margin decision) and per-area irrigation intensity (the intensive margin decision) are then calculated for different seasonal water restrictions (corresponding to regulatory policies) and well yield constraints on intraseasonal abstraction rates (corresponding to aquifer system limits). Profit- and utility-maximising decisions are determined assuming risk neutrality and varying degrees of risk aversion, respectively. Our results demonstrate that the formulation of the production function has a significant impact on the response to water scarcity. For low well yields, which are the major concern
Global modelling of river water quality under climate change
van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Franssen, Wietse H. P.; Yearsley, John R.
2017-04-01
Climate change will pose challenges on the quality of freshwater resources for human use and ecosystems for instance by changing the dilution capacity and by affecting the rate of chemical processes in rivers. Here we assess the impacts of climate change and induced streamflow changes on a selection of water quality parameters for river basins globally. We used the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and a newly developed global water quality module for salinity, temperature, dissolved oxygen and biochemical oxygen demand. The modelling framework was validated using observed records of streamflow, water temperature, chloride, electrical conductivity, dissolved oxygen and biochemical oxygen demand for 1981-2010. VIC and the water quality module were then forced with an ensemble of bias-corrected General Circulation Model (GCM) output for the representative concentration pathways RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 to study water quality trends and identify critical regions (hotspots) of water quality deterioration for the 21st century.
Modeling sintering of multilayers under influence of gravity
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Frandsen, Henrik Lund; Olevsky, Eugene; Tadesse Molla, Tesfaye
2013-01-01
, which describes the combined effect of sintering and gravity of thin multilayers, is derived and later compared with experimental results. It allows for consideration of both uniaxial and biaxial stress states. The model is based on the Skorohod-Olevsky viscous sintering framework, the classical...... laminate theory and the elastic-viscoelastic correspondence principle. The modeling approach is then applied to illustrate the effect of gravity during sintering of thin layers of cerium gadolinium oxide (CGO), and it is found to be significant. © 2012 The American Ceramic Society....
On a Stochastic Failure Model under Random Shocks
Cha, Ji Hwan
2013-02-01
In most conventional settings, the events caused by an external shock are initiated at the moments of its occurrence. In this paper, we study a new classes of shock model, where each shock from a nonhomogeneous Poisson processes can trigger a failure of a system not immediately, as in classical extreme shock models, but with delay of some random time. We derive the corresponding survival and failure rate functions. Furthermore, we study the limiting behaviour of the failure rate function where it is applicable.
The monster sporadic group and a theory underlying superstring models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chapline, G.
1996-09-01
The pattern of duality symmetries acting on the states of compactified superstring models reinforces an earlier suggestion that the Monster sporadic group is a hidden symmetry for superstring models. This in turn points to a supersymmetric theory of self-dual and anti-self-dual K3 manifolds joined by Dirac strings and evolving in a 13 dimensional spacetime as the fundamental theory. In addition to the usual graviton and dilaton this theory contains matter-like degrees of freedom resembling the massless states of the heterotic string, thus providing a completely geometric interpretation for ordinary matter. 25 refs
Triatominae as a model of morphological plasticity under ecological pressure
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dujardin JP
1999-01-01
Full Text Available The use of biochemical and genetic characters to explore species or population relationships has been applied to taxonomic questions since the 60s. In responding to the central question of the evolutionary history of Triatominae, i.e. their monophyletic or polyphyletic origin, two important questions arise (i to what extent is the morphologically-based classification valid for assessing phylogenetic relationships? and (ii what are the main mechanisms underlying speciation in Triatominae? Phenetic and genetic studies so far developed suggest that speciation in Triatominae may be a rapid process mainly driven by ecological factors.
Network formation under heterogeneous costs: The multiple group model
Kamphorst, J.J.A.; van der Laan, G.
2007-01-01
It is widely recognized that the shape of networks influences both individual and aggregate behavior. This raises the question which types of networks are likely to arise. In this paper we investigate a model of network formation, where players are divided into groups and the costs of a link between
Modified bond model for shear in slabs under concentrated loads
Lantsoght, E.O.L.; Van der Veen, C.; De Boer, A.
2015-01-01
Slabs subjected to concentrated loads close to supports, as occurring for truck loads on slab bridges, are less studied than beams in shear or slab-column connections in punching. To predict the shear capacity for this case, the Bond Model for concentric punching shear was studied initially.
The Optimal Portfolio Selection Model under g-Expectation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Li Li
2014-01-01
complicated and sophisticated, the optimal solution turns out to be surprisingly simple, the payoff of a portfolio of two binary claims. Also I give the economic meaning of my model and the comparison with that one in the work of Jin and Zhou, 2008.
Modeling sheet-flow sand transport under progressive surface waves
Kranenburg, Wouter
2013-01-01
In the near-shore zone, energetic sea waves generate sheet-flow sand transport. In present day coastal models, wave-induced sheet-flow sand transport rates are usually predicted with semi-empirical transport formulas, based on extensive research on this phenomenon in oscillatory flow tunnels.
Outdoor FSO Communications Under Fog: Attenuation Modeling and Performance Evaluation
Esmail, Maged Abdullah; Fathallah, Habib; Alouini, Mohamed-Slim
2016-01-01
transmission technology. Therefore, FSO will have its preferred market segment in future wireless fifth-generation/sixth-generation (5G/6G) networks having cell sizes that are lower than a 1-km diameter. Moreover, the results of our modeling and analysis can
Modeling Growth and Yield of Schizolobium amazonicum under Different Spacings
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gilson Fernandes da Silva
2013-01-01
Full Text Available This study aimed to present an approach to model the growth and yield of the species Schizolobium amazonicum (Paricá based on a study of different spacings located in Pará, Brazil. Whole-stand models were employed, and two modeling strategies (Strategies A and B were tested. Moreover, the following three scenarios were evaluated to assess the accuracy of the model in estimating total and commercial volumes at five years of age: complete absence of data (S1; available information about the variables basal area, site index, dominant height, and number of trees at two years of age (S2; and this information available at five years of age (S3. The results indicated that the 3 × 2 spacing has a higher mortality rate than normal, and, in general, greater spacing corresponds to larger diameter and average height and smaller basal area and volume per hectare. In estimating the total and commercial volumes for the three scenarios tested, Strategy B seems to be the most appropriate method to estimate the growth and yield of Paricá plantations in the study region, particularly because Strategy A showed a significant bias in its estimates.
Cognitive-Based Interventions to Improve Mobility: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.
Marusic, Uros; Verghese, Joe; Mahoney, Jeannette R
2018-06-01
A strong relation between cognition and mobility has been identified in aging, supporting a role for enhancement mobility through cognitive-based interventions. However, a critical evaluation of the consistency of treatment effects of cognitive-based interventions is currently lacking. The objective of this study was 2-fold: (1) to review the existing literature on cognitive-based interventions aimed at improving mobility in older adults and (2) to assess the clinical effectiveness of cognitive interventions on gait performance. A systematic review of randomized controlled trials (RCT) of cognitive training interventions for improving simple (normal walking) and complex (dual task walking) gait was conducted in February 2018. Older adults without major cognitive, psychiatric, neurologic, and/or sensory impairments were included. Random effect meta-analyses and a subsequent meta-regression were performed to generate overall cognitive intervention effects on single- and dual-task walking conditions. Ten RCTs met inclusion criteria, with a total of 351 participants included in this meta-analysis. Cognitive training interventions revealed a small effect of intervention on complex gait [effect size (ES) = 0.47, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.13 to 0.81, P = .007, I 2 = 15.85%], but not simple gait (ES = 0.35, 95% CI -0.01 to 0.71, P = .057, I 2 = 57.32%). Moreover, a meta-regression analysis revealed that intervention duration, training frequency, total number of sessions, and total minutes spent in intervention were not significant predictors of improvement in dual-task walking speed, though there was a suggestive trend toward a negative association between dual-task walking speed improvements and individual training session duration (P = .067). This meta-analysis provides support for the fact that cognitive training interventions can improve mobility-related outcomes, especially during challenging walking conditions requiring higher-order executive
Modeling pedestrian gap crossing index under mixed traffic condition.
Naser, Mohamed M; Zulkiple, Adnan; Al Bargi, Walid A; Khalifa, Nasradeen A; Daniel, Basil David
2017-12-01
There are a variety of challenges faced by pedestrians when they walk along and attempt to cross a road, as the most recorded accidents occur during this time. Pedestrians of all types, including both sexes with numerous aging groups, are always subjected to risk and are characterized as the most exposed road users. The increased demand for better traffic management strategies to reduce the risks at intersections, improve quality traffic management, traffic volume, and longer cycle time has further increased concerns over the past decade. This paper aims to develop a sustainable pedestrian gap crossing index model based on traffic flow density. It focusses on the gaps accepted by pedestrians and their decision for street crossing, where (Log-Gap) logarithm of accepted gaps was used to optimize the result of a model for gap crossing behavior. Through a review of extant literature, 15 influential variables were extracted for further empirical analysis. Subsequently, data from the observation at an uncontrolled mid-block in Jalan Ampang in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia was gathered and Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) and Binary Logit Model (BLM) techniques were employed to analyze the results. From the results, different pedestrian behavioral characteristics were considered for a minimum gap size model, out of which only a few (four) variables could explain the pedestrian road crossing behavior while the remaining variables have an insignificant effect. Among the different variables, age, rolling gap, vehicle type, and crossing were the most influential variables. The study concludes that pedestrians' decision to cross the street depends on the pedestrian age, rolling gap, vehicle type, and size of traffic gap before crossing. The inferences from these models will be useful to increase pedestrian safety and performance evaluation of uncontrolled midblock road crossings in developing countries. Copyright © 2017 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Cascading failures in interdependent systems under a flow redistribution model
Zhang, Yingrui; Arenas, Alex; Yaǧan, Osman
2018-02-01
Robustness and cascading failures in interdependent systems has been an active research field in the past decade. However, most existing works use percolation-based models where only the largest component of each network remains functional throughout the cascade. Although suitable for communication networks, this assumption fails to capture the dependencies in systems carrying a flow (e.g., power systems, road transportation networks), where cascading failures are often triggered by redistribution of flows leading to overloading of lines. Here, we consider a model consisting of systems A and B with initial line loads and capacities given by {LA,i,CA ,i} i =1 n and {LB,i,CB ,i} i =1 n, respectively. When a line fails in system A , a fraction of its load is redistributed to alive lines in B , while remaining (1 -a ) fraction is redistributed equally among all functional lines in A ; a line failure in B is treated similarly with b giving the fraction to be redistributed to A . We give a thorough analysis of cascading failures of this model initiated by a random attack targeting p1 fraction of lines in A and p2 fraction in B . We show that (i) the model captures the real-world phenomenon of unexpected large scale cascades and exhibits interesting transition behavior: the final collapse is always first order, but it can be preceded by a sequence of first- and second-order transitions; (ii) network robustness tightly depends on the coupling coefficients a and b , and robustness is maximized at non-trivial a ,b values in general; (iii) unlike most existing models, interdependence has a multifaceted impact on system robustness in that interdependency can lead to an improved robustness for each individual network.
A constitutive model for concrete under dynamic loading
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Suaris, W.; Shah, S.P.
1983-01-01
A continuous damage theory for the quasistatic and dynamic behaviour of concrete is presented. The continuous damage theory is rational choice for use in predicing the dynamic behaviour of concrete as the strain-rate effects that have been observed for concrete can to a large extent be attributed to the rate-sensitivity of the microcracking process. A vectorial representation is adopted for the damage to account for the planar nature of the microcracks in concrete. Damage is treated as an internal state variable influencing the free energy of the material and the constitutive equations and the damage evolution equations are derived consistently using thermodynamic considerations. The developed constitutive model is then calibrated by using test results in flexure and compression over a range of strain-rates. The constitutive model is also shown to be capable of predicting certain other experimentally observed characteristics of the dynamic response of concrete. (orig./HP)
A Novel Computer Virus Propagation Model under Security Classification
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Qingyi Zhu
2017-01-01
Full Text Available In reality, some computers have specific security classification. For the sake of safety and cost, the security level of computers will be upgraded with increasing of threats in networks. Here we assume that there exists a threshold value which determines when countermeasures should be taken to level up the security of a fraction of computers with low security level. And in some specific realistic environments the propagation network can be regarded as fully interconnected. Inspired by these facts, this paper presents a novel computer virus dynamics model considering the impact brought by security classification in full interconnection network. By using the theory of dynamic stability, the existence of equilibria and stability conditions is analysed and proved. And the above optimal threshold value is given analytically. Then, some numerical experiments are made to justify the model. Besides, some discussions and antivirus measures are given.
Creep modeling of textured zircaloy under biaxial stressing
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Adams, B.L.; Murty, K.L.
1984-01-01
Anisotropic biaxial creep behavior of textured Zircaloy tubing was modeled using a crystal-plastic uniform strain-rate upper-bound and a uniform stress lower-bound approach. Power-law steady-state creep is considered to occur on each crystallite glide system by fixing the slip rate to be proportional to the resolved shear stress raised to a power. Prismatic, basal, and pyramidal slip modes were considered. The crystallographic texture is characterized using the orientation distribution function determined from a set of three pole-figures. This method is contrasted with a Von-Mises-Hill phenomenological model in comparison with experimental data obtained at 673 deg K. The resulting creep-dissipative loci show the importance of the basal slip mode on creep in heavily cold-worked cladding, whereas prismatic slip is more important for the recrystallized materials. (author)
Modeling the Virtual Machine Launching Overhead under Fermicloud
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Garzoglio, Gabriele [Fermilab; Wu, Hao [Fermilab; Ren, Shangping [IIT, Chicago; Timm, Steven [Fermilab; Bernabeu, Gerard [Fermilab; Noh, Seo-Young [KISTI, Daejeon
2014-11-12
FermiCloud is a private cloud developed by the Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory for scientific workflows. The Cloud Bursting module of the FermiCloud enables the FermiCloud, when more computational resources are needed, to automatically launch virtual machines to available resources such as public clouds. One of the main challenges in developing the cloud bursting module is to decide when and where to launch a VM so that all resources are most effectively and efficiently utilized and the system performance is optimized. However, based on FermiCloud’s system operational data, the VM launching overhead is not a constant. It varies with physical resource (CPU, memory, I/O device) utilization at the time when a VM is launched. Hence, to make judicious decisions as to when and where a VM should be launched, a VM launch overhead reference model is needed. The paper is to develop a VM launch overhead reference model based on operational data we have obtained on FermiCloud and uses the reference model to guide the cloud bursting process.
Maintenance cost models in deregulated power systems under opportunity costs
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Al-Arfaj, K.; Dahal, K.; Azaiez, M.N.
2007-01-01
In a centralized power system, the operator is responsible for scheduling maintenance. There are different types of maintenance, including corrective maintenance; predictive maintenance; preventive maintenance; and reliability-centred maintenance. The main cause of power failures is poor maintenance. As such, maintenance costs play a significant role in deregulated power systems. They include direct costs associated with material and labor costs as well as indirect costs associated with spare parts inventory, shipment, test equipment, indirect labor, opportunity costs and cost of failure. In maintenance scheduling and planning, the cost function is the only component of the objective function. This paper presented the results of a study in which different components of maintenance costs were modeled. The maintenance models were formulated as an optimization problem with single and multiple objectives and a set of constraints. The maintenance costs models could be used to schedule the maintenance activities of power generators more accurately and to identify the best maintenance strategies over a period of time as they consider failure and opportunity costs in a deregulated environment. 32 refs., 4 tabs., 4 figs
Stability of void lattices under irradiation: a kinetic model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Benoist, P.; Martin, G.
1975-01-01
Voids are imbedded in a homogeneous medium where point defects are uniformly created and annihilated. As shown by a perturbation calculation, the proportion of the defects which are lost on the cavities goes through a maximum, when the voids are arranged on a translation lattice. If a void is displaced from its lattice site, its growth rate becomes anisotropic and is larger in the direction of the vacant site. The relative efficiency of BCC versus FCC void lattices for the capture of point defects is shown to depend on the relaxation length of the point defects in the surrounding medium. It is shown that the rate of energy dissipation in the crystal under irradiation is maximum when the voids are ordered on the appropriate lattice
Stability of void lattices under irradiation: a kinetic model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Benoist, P.; Martin, G.
1975-01-01
Voids are imbedded in a homogeneous medium where point defects are uniformly created and annihilated. As shown by a perturbation calculation, the proportion of the defects which are lost on the cavities goes through a maximum, when the voids are arranged on a translation lattice. If a void is displaced from its lattice site, its growth the rate becomes anisotropic and is larger in the direction of the vacant site. The relative efficiency of BCC versus FCC void lattices for the capture of point defects is shown to depend on the relaxation length of the point defects in the surrounding medium. It is shown that the rate of energy dissipation in the crystal under irradiation is maximum when the voids are ordered on the appropriate lattice [fr
Modeling amorphization of tetrahedral structures under local approaches
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jesurum, C.E.; Pulim, V.; Berger, B.; Hobbs, L.W.
1997-01-01
Many crystalline ceramics can be topologically disordered (amorphized) by disordering radiation events involving high-energy collision cascades or (in some cases) successive single-atom displacements. The authors are interested in both the potential for disorder and the possible aperiodic structures adopted following the disordering event. The potential for disordering is related to connectivity, and among those structures of interest are tetrahedral networks (such as SiO 2 , SiC and Si 3 N 4 ) comprising corner-shared tetrahedral units whose connectivities are easily evaluated. In order to study the response of these networks to radiation, the authors have chosen to model their assembly according to the (simple) local rules that each corner obeys in connecting to another tetrahedron; in this way they easily erect large computer models of any crystalline polymorphic form. Amorphous structures can be similarly grown by application of altered rules. They have adopted a simple model of irradiation in which all bonds in the neighborhood of a designated tetrahedron are destroyed, and they reform the bonds in this region according to a set of (possibly different) local rules appropriate to the environmental conditions. When a tetrahedron approaches the boundary of this neighborhood, it undergoes an optimization step in which a spring is inserted between two corners of compatible tetrahedra when they are within a certain distance of one another; component forces are then applied that act to minimize the distance between these corners and minimize the deviation from the rules. The resulting structure is then analyzed for the complete adjacency matrix, irreducible ring statistics, and bond angle distributions
Bistable dynamics underlying excitability of ion homeostasis in neuron models.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Niklas Hübel
2014-05-01
Full Text Available When neurons fire action potentials, dissipation of free energy is usually not directly considered, because the change in free energy is often negligible compared to the immense reservoir stored in neural transmembrane ion gradients and the long-term energy requirements are met through chemical energy, i.e., metabolism. However, these gradients can temporarily nearly vanish in neurological diseases, such as migraine and stroke, and in traumatic brain injury from concussions to severe injuries. We study biophysical neuron models based on the Hodgkin-Huxley (HH formalism extended to include time-dependent ion concentrations inside and outside the cell and metabolic energy-driven pumps. We reveal the basic mechanism of a state of free energy-starvation (FES with bifurcation analyses showing that ion dynamics is for a large range of pump rates bistable without contact to an ion bath. This is interpreted as a threshold reduction of a new fundamental mechanism of ionic excitability that causes a long-lasting but transient FES as observed in pathological states. We can in particular conclude that a coupling of extracellular ion concentrations to a large glial-vascular bath can take a role as an inhibitory mechanism crucial in ion homeostasis, while the Na⁺/K⁺ pumps alone are insufficient to recover from FES. Our results provide the missing link between the HH formalism and activator-inhibitor models that have been successfully used for modeling migraine phenotypes, and therefore will allow us to validate the hypothesis that migraine symptoms are explained by disturbed function in ion channel subunits, Na⁺/K⁺ pumps, and other proteins that regulate ion homeostasis.
Graphical models for inference under outcome-dependent sampling
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Didelez, V; Kreiner, S; Keiding, N
2010-01-01
a node for the sampling indicator, assumptions about sampling processes can be made explicit. We demonstrate how to read off such graphs whether consistent estimation of the association between exposure and outcome is possible. Moreover, we give sufficient graphical conditions for testing and estimating......We consider situations where data have been collected such that the sampling depends on the outcome of interest and possibly further covariates, as for instance in case-control studies. Graphical models represent assumptions about the conditional independencies among the variables. By including...
The stable model semantics under the any-world assumption
Straccia, Umberto; Loyer, Yann
2004-01-01
The stable model semantics has become a dominating approach to complete the knowledge provided by a logic program by means of the Closed World Assumption (CWA). The CWA asserts that any atom whose truth-value cannot be inferred from the facts and rules is supposed to be false. This assumption is orthogonal to the so-called the Open World Assumption (OWA), which asserts that every such atom's truth is supposed to be unknown. The topic of this paper is to be more fine-grained. Indeed, the objec...
A thermal model for photovoltaic panels under varying atmospheric conditions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Armstrong, S.; Hurley, W.G.
2010-01-01
The response of the photovoltaic (PV) panel temperature is dynamic with respect to the changes in the incoming solar radiation. During periods of rapidly changing conditions, a steady state model of the operating temperature cannot be justified because the response time of the PV panel temperature becomes significant due to its large thermal mass. Therefore, it is of interest to determine the thermal response time of the PV panel. Previous attempts to determine the thermal response time have used indoor measurements, controlling the wind flow over the surface of the panel with fans or conducting the experiments in darkness to avoid radiative heat loss effects. In real operating conditions, the effective PV panel temperature is subjected to randomly varying ambient temperature and fluctuating wind speeds and directions; parameters that are not replicated in controlled, indoor experiments. A new thermal model is proposed that incorporates atmospheric conditions; effects of PV panel material composition and mounting structure. Experimental results are presented which verify the thermal behaviour of a photovoltaic panel for low to strong winds.
Financial Transaction Tax: Determination of Economic Impact Under DSGE Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Veronika Solilová
2015-01-01
Full Text Available The discussion about the possible taxation of the financial sector has started in the European Union as a result of the financial crisis which has spread to the Europe from the United States in 2008 and consequently of the massive financial interventions by governments made in favour of the financial sector. On 14 February 2013, after rejection of the draft of the directive introducing a common system of financial transaction tax in 2011, the European Commission introduced the financial transaction tax through enhanced cooperation. The aim of the paper is to research economic impact of financial transaction tax on EU (EU27 or EU11 with respect to the DSGE model which was used for the determination of impacts. Based on our analysis the DSGE model can be considered as underestimated in case of the impact on economic growth and an overestimated in case of the revenue collection. Particularly, the overall impact of the financial transaction tax considering cascade effects of securities (tax rate 2.2% and derivatives (tax rate 0.2% is ranged between −4.752 and 1.472 percent points of GDP. And further, is assumed that the relocation effects of business/trade can be in average 40% causes a decline of expected tax revenues in the amount of 13bn EUR. Thus, at a time of fragile economic growth across the EU and the increased risk of recession in Europe, the introduction of the FTT should be undesirable.
Developing Physiologic Models for Emergency Medical Procedures Under Microgravity
Parker, Nigel; O'Quinn, Veronica
2012-01-01
Several technological enhancements have been made to METI's commercial Emergency Care Simulator (ECS) with regard to how microgravity affects human physiology. The ECS uses both a software-only lung simulation, and an integrated mannequin lung that uses a physical lung bag for creating chest excursions, and a digital simulation of lung mechanics and gas exchange. METI s patient simulators incorporate models of human physiology that simulate lung and chest wall mechanics, as well as pulmonary gas exchange. Microgravity affects how O2 and CO2 are exchanged in the lungs. Procedures were also developed to take into affect the Glasgow Coma Scale for determining levels of consciousness by varying the ECS eye-blinking function to partially indicate the level of consciousness of the patient. In addition, the ECS was modified to provide various levels of pulses from weak and thready to hyper-dynamic to assist in assessing patient conditions from the femoral, carotid, brachial, and pedal pulse locations.
Modeling of fracture of protective concrete structures under impact loads
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Radchenko, P. A., E-mail: radchenko@live.ru; Batuev, S. P.; Radchenko, A. V.; Plevkov, V. S. [Tomsk State University of Architecture and Building, Tomsk, 634003 (Russian Federation)
2015-10-27
This paper presents results of numerical simulation of interaction between a Boeing 747-400 aircraft and the protective shell of a nuclear power plant. The shell is presented as a complex multilayered cellular structure consisting of layers of concrete and fiber concrete bonded with steel trusses. Numerical simulation was performed three-dimensionally using the original algorithm and software taking into account algorithms for building grids of complex geometric objects and parallel computations. Dynamics of the stress-strain state and fracture of the structure were studied. Destruction is described using a two-stage model that allows taking into account anisotropy of elastic and strength properties of concrete and fiber concrete. It is shown that wave processes initiate destruction of the cellular shell structure; cells start to destruct in an unloading wave originating after the compression wave arrival at free cell surfaces.
Modeling of fracture of protective concrete structures under impact loads
Radchenko, P. A.; Batuev, S. P.; Radchenko, A. V.; Plevkov, V. S.
2015-10-01
This paper presents results of numerical simulation of interaction between a Boeing 747-400 aircraft and the protective shell of a nuclear power plant. The shell is presented as a complex multilayered cellular structure consisting of layers of concrete and fiber concrete bonded with steel trusses. Numerical simulation was performed three-dimensionally using the original algorithm and software taking into account algorithms for building grids of complex geometric objects and parallel computations. Dynamics of the stress-strain state and fracture of the structure were studied. Destruction is described using a two-stage model that allows taking into account anisotropy of elastic and strength properties of concrete and fiber concrete. It is shown that wave processes initiate destruction of the cellular shell structure; cells start to destruct in an unloading wave originating after the compression wave arrival at free cell surfaces.
Modelling information dissemination under privacy concerns in social media
Zhu, Hui; Huang, Cheng; Lu, Rongxing; Li, Hui
2016-05-01
Social media has recently become an important platform for users to share news, express views, and post messages. However, due to user privacy preservation in social media, many privacy setting tools are employed, which inevitably change the patterns and dynamics of information dissemination. In this study, a general stochastic model using dynamic evolution equations was introduced to illustrate how privacy concerns impact the process of information dissemination. Extensive simulations and analyzes involving the privacy settings of general users, privileged users, and pure observers were conducted on real-world networks, and the results demonstrated that user privacy settings affect information differently. Finally, we also studied the process of information diffusion analytically and numerically with different privacy settings using two classic networks.
Approximation Algorithms for the Highway Problem under the Coupon Model
Hamane, Ryoso; Itoh, Toshiya; Tomita, Kouhei
When a store sells items to customers, the store wishes to decide the prices of items to maximize its profit. Intuitively, if the store sells the items with low (resp. high) prices, the customers buy more (resp. less) items, which provides less profit to the store. So it would be hard for the store to decide the prices of items. Assume that the store has a set V of n items and there is a set E of m customers who wish to buy the items, and also assume that each item i ∈ V has the production cost di and each customer ej ∈ E has the valuation vj on the bundle ej ⊆ V of items. When the store sells an item i ∈ V at the price ri, the profit for the item i is pi = ri - di. The goal of the store is to decide the price of each item to maximize its total profit. We refer to this maximization problem as the item pricing problem. In most of the previous works, the item pricing problem was considered under the assumption that pi ≥ 0 for each i ∈ V, however, Balcan, et al. [In Proc. of WINE, LNCS 4858, 2007] introduced the notion of “loss-leader, ” and showed that the seller can get more total profit in the case that pi < 0 is allowed than in the case that pi < 0 is not allowed. In this paper, we consider the line highway problem (in which each customer is interested in an interval on the line of the items) and the cycle highway problem (in which each customer is interested in an interval on the cycle of the items), and show approximation algorithms for the line highway problem and the cycle highway problem in which the smallest valuation is s and the largest valuation is l (this is called an [s, l]-valuation setting) or all valuations are identical (this is called a single valuation setting).
Sachdeva, Neha; Kumar, G Dinesh; Gupta, Ravi Prakash; Mathur, Anshu Shankar; Manikandan, B; Basu, Biswajit; Tuli, Deepak Kumar
2016-10-01
The aim of the present work was to develop a mathematical model to describe the biomass and (total) lipid productivity of Chlorella pyrenoidosa NCIM 2738 under heterotrophic conditions. Biomass growth rate was predicted by Droop's cell quota model, while changes observed in cell quota (utilization) under carbon excess conditions were used for the modeling and predicting the lipid accumulation rate. The model was simulated under non-limiting (excess) carbon and limiting nitrate concentration and validated with experimental data for the culture grown in batch (flask) mode under different nitrate concentrations. The present model incorporated two modes (growth and stressed) for the prediction of endogenous lipid synthesis/induction and aimed to predict the effect and response of the microalgae under nutrient starvation (stressed) conditions. MATLAB and Genetic Algorithm were employed for the prediction and validation of the model parameters. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Phase-field modeling of corrosion kinetics under dual-oxidants
Wen, You-Hai; Chen, Long-Qing; Hawk, Jeffrey A.
2012-04-01
A phase-field model is proposed to simulate corrosion kinetics under a dual-oxidant atmosphere. It will be demonstrated that the model can be applied to simulate corrosion kinetics under oxidation, sulfidation and simultaneous oxidation/sulfidation processes. Phase-dependent diffusivities are incorporated in a natural manner and allow more realistic modeling as the diffusivities usually differ by many orders of magnitude in different phases. Simple free energy models are then used for testing the model while calibrated free energy models can be implemented for quantitative modeling.
Genomic value prediction for quantitative traits under the epistatic model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xu Shizhong
2011-01-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Most quantitative traits are controlled by multiple quantitative trait loci (QTL. The contribution of each locus may be negligible but the collective contribution of all loci is usually significant. Genome selection that uses markers of the entire genome to predict the genomic values of individual plants or animals can be more efficient than selection on phenotypic values and pedigree information alone for genetic improvement. When a quantitative trait is contributed by epistatic effects, using all markers (main effects and marker pairs (epistatic effects to predict the genomic values of plants can achieve the maximum efficiency for genetic improvement. Results In this study, we created 126 recombinant inbred lines of soybean and genotyped 80 makers across the genome. We applied the genome selection technique to predict the genomic value of somatic embryo number (a quantitative trait for each line. Cross validation analysis showed that the squared correlation coefficient between the observed and predicted embryo numbers was 0.33 when only main (additive effects were used for prediction. When the interaction (epistatic effects were also included in the model, the squared correlation coefficient reached 0.78. Conclusions This study provided an excellent example for the application of genome selection to plant breeding.
A cash flow oriented EOQ model under permissible delay in payments
African Journals Online (AJOL)
A cash flow oriented EOQ model under permissible delay in payments. RP Tripathi, SS Misra, HS Shukla. Abstract. This study presents an inventory model to determine an optimal ordering policy for non-deteriorating items and timedependent demand rate with delay in payments permitted by the supplier under inflation and ...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
N. Romano
2011-12-01
Full Text Available We investigate the potential impact of accounting for seasonal variations in the climatic forcing and using different methods to parameterize the soil water content at field capacity on the water balance components computed by a bucket model (BM. The single-layer BM of Guswa et al. (2002 is employed, whereas the Richards equation (RE based Soil Water Atmosphere Plant (SWAP model is used as a benchmark model. The results are analyzed for two differently-textured soils and for some synthetic runs under real-like seasonal weather conditions, using stochastically-generated daily rainfall data for a period of 100 years. Since transient soil-moisture dynamics and climatic seasonality play a key role in certain zones of the World, such as in Mediterranean land areas, a specific feature of this study is to test the prediction capability of the bucket model under a condition where seasonal variations in rainfall are not in phase with the variations in plant transpiration. Reference is made to a hydrologic year in which we have a rainy period (starting 1 November and lasting 151 days where vegetation is basically assumed in a dormant stage, followed by a drier and rainless period with a vegetation regrowth phase. Better agreement between BM and RE-SWAP intercomparison results are obtained when BM is parameterized by a field capacity value determined through the drainage method proposed by Romano and Santini (2002. Depending on the vegetation regrowth or dormant seasons, rainfall variability within a season results in transpiration regimes and soil moisture fluctuations with distinctive features. During the vegetation regrowth season, transpiration exerts a key control on soil water budget with respect to rainfall. During the dormant season of vegetation, the precipitation regime becomes an important climate forcing. Simulations also highlight the occurrence of bimodality in the probability distribution of soil moisture during the season when plants are
Synchronisation under shocks: The Lévy Kuramoto model
Roberts, Dale; Kalloniatis, Alexander C.
2018-04-01
We study the Kuramoto model of identical oscillators on Erdős-Rényi (ER) and Barabasi-Alberts (BA) scale free networks examining the dynamics when perturbed by a Lévy noise. Lévy noise exhibits heavier tails than Gaussian while allowing for their tempering in a controlled manner. This allows us to understand how 'shocks' influence individual oscillator and collective system behaviour of a paradigmatic complex system. Skewed α-stable Lévy noise, equivalent to fractional diffusion perturbations, are considered, but overlaid by exponential tempering of rate λ. In an earlier paper we found that synchrony takes a variety of forms for identical Kuramoto oscillators subject to stable Lévy noise, not seen for the Gaussian case, and changing with α: a noise-induced drift, a smooth α dependence of the point of cross-over of synchronisation point of ER and BA networks, and a severe loss of synchronisation at low values of α. In the presence of tempering we observe both analytically and numerically a dramatic change to the α synchronisation is sustained over a larger range of values of the 'noise strength' σ, improved compared to the α > 1 tempered cases. Analytically we study the system close to the phase synchronised fixed point and solve the tempered fractional Fokker-Planck equation. There we observe that densities show stronger support in the basin of attraction at low α for fixed coupling, σ and tempering λ. We then perform numerical simulations for networks of size N = 1000 and average degree d ¯ = 10. There, we compute the order parameter r as a function of σ for fixed α and λ and observe values of r ≈ 1 over larger ranges of σ for α synchronisation down to low values of α. We propose a mechanism for this in terms of the basic shape of the tempered stable Lévy densities for various α and how it feeds into Kuramoto oscillator dynamics and illustrate this with examples of specific paths.
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Raftery, Adrian E; Karny, Miroslav; Andrysek, Josef; Ettler, Pavel
2007-01-01
... is. We develop a method called Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) in which a state space model for the parameters of each model is combined with a Markov chain model for the correct model. This allows the (correct...
Zhou, Jie; Dovidio, John; Wang, Erping
2013-01-01
The moderating role of affective-cognitive consistency in the effects of affectively-based and cognitively-based attitudes on consummatory and instrumental behaviors was explored using two experimental studies in the intergroup context. Study 1 revealed that affectively-based attitudes were better predictors than cognitively-based attitudes regardless of affective-cognitive consistency for consummatory behaviors (e.g., undergraduates’ supportive behaviors toward government officials). Study 2, which investigated task groups’ supportive behaviors toward an immediate supervisory group, found that for these instrumental behaviors cognitively-based attitudes were better predictors than affectively-based attitudes only when affective-cognitive consistency was high. The present research also examined the mechanism by which affective-cognitive consistency moderates the relative roles of affectively-based and cognitively-based attitudes in attitude-behavior consistency. Results indicated that attitude-behavior consistency is eroded primarily because of the weaker relationship of affective or cognitive components to behaviors than to general attitudes. The reciprocal implications of research on attitudes and work on intergroup relations are considered. PMID:24244751
The Mediated MIMIC Model for Understanding the Underlying Mechanism of DIF
Cheng, Ying; Shao, Can; Lathrop, Quinn N.
2016-01-01
Due to its flexibility, the multiple-indicator, multiple-causes (MIMIC) model has become an increasingly popular method for the detection of differential item functioning (DIF). In this article, we propose the mediated MIMIC model method to uncover the underlying mechanism of DIF. This method extends the usual MIMIC model by including one variable…
Boesten, J.J.T.I.; Stroosnijder, L.
1986-01-01
A simple parametric model is presented to estimate daily evaporation from fallow tilled soil under spring conditions in a temperate climate. In this model, cumulative actual evaporation during a drying cycle is directly proportional to the square root of cumulative potential evaporation. The model
Asymptotic approach to the pricing of geometric asian options under the CEV model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lee, Min-Ku
2016-01-01
This paper studies the pricing of Asian options whose payoffs depend on the average value of an underlying asset during the period to a maturity. Since the Asian option is not so sensitive to the value of underlying asset, the possibility of manipulation is relatively small than the other options such as European vanilla and barrier options. We derive the pricing formula of geometric Asian options under the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) model that is one of local volatility models, and investigate the implication of the CEV model for geometric Asian options.
A fiber bundle-plastic chain model for quasi-brittle materials under uniaxial loading
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Shan, Zhi; Yu, Zhiwu
2015-01-01
A fiber bundle-plastic chain model for quasi-brittle materials under both uniaxial compression and tension conditions is developed. By introducing a plastic chain model into the fiber bundle model, a bundle-chain model for quasi-brittle materials is proposed with physical considerations. The model achieves a novel and convenient approach to describe the stochastic effective stress-driven plasticity. It is found that the numerical solutions obtained with this model agree with experimental results when subjected to both monotonic and cyclic uniaxial loading. The model generates a numerical solution with higher accuracy than the present models, when compared with the experimental results on certain problems. An example is shown which utilizes this model to describe the stochastic properties of a constitutive model given as standard. Furthermore, the difference between the existing plastic fiber bundle models in the literature and this model is also obtained in this work. (paper)
A new crack growth model for life prediction under random loading
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lee, Ouk Sub; Chen, Zhi Wei
1999-01-01
The load interaction effect in variable amplitude fatigue test is a very important issue for correctly predicting fatigue life. Some prediction methods for retardation are reviewed and the problems discussed. The so-called 'under-load' effect is also of importance for a prediction model to work properly under random load spectrum. A new model that is simple in form but combines overload plastic zone and residual stress considerations together with Elber's closure concept is proposed to fully take account of the load-interaction effects including both over-load and under-load effects. Applying this new model to complex load sequence is explored here. Simulations of tests show the improvement of the new model over other models. The best prediction (mostly closely resembling test curve) is given by the newly proposed Chen-Lee model
Modelling and Control of Ionic Electroactive Polymer Actuators under Varying Humidity Conditions
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
S. Sunjai Nakshatharan
2018-02-01
Full Text Available In this work, we address the problem of position control of ionic electroactive polymer soft actuators under varying relative humidity conditions. The impact of humidity on the actuation performance of ionic actuators is studied through frequency response and impedance spectroscopy analysis. Considering the uncertain performance of the actuator under varying humidity conditions, an adaptable model using the neural network method is developed. The model uses relative humidity magnitude as one of the model parameters, making it robust to different environmental conditions. Utilizing the model, a closed-loop controller based on the model predictive controller is developed for position control of the actuator. The developed model and controller are experimentally verified and found to be capable of predicting and controlling the actuators with excellent tracking accuracy under relative humidity conditions varying in the range of 10–90%.
2017-07-04
This paper presents a stochastic multi-agent optimization model that supports energy infrastruc- : ture planning under uncertainty. The interdependence between dierent decision entities in the : system is captured in an energy supply chain network, w...
Numerical solution of continuous-time DSGE models under Poisson uncertainty
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Posch, Olaf; Trimborn, Timo
We propose a simple and powerful method for determining the transition process in continuous-time DSGE models under Poisson uncertainty numerically. The idea is to transform the system of stochastic differential equations into a system of functional differential equations of the retarded type. We...... classes of models. We illustrate the algorithm simulating both the stochastic neoclassical growth model and the Lucas model under Poisson uncertainty which is motivated by the Barro-Rietz rare disaster hypothesis. We find that, even for non-linear policy functions, the maximum (absolute) error is very...
A Three-Box Model of Thermohaline Circulation under the Energy Constraint
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Shen Yang; Guan Yu-Ping; Liang Chu-Jin; Chen Da-Ke
2011-01-01
The driving mechanism of thermohaline circulation is still a controversial topic in physical oceanography. Classic theory is based on Stommel's two-box model under buoyancy constraint. Recently, Guan and Huang proposed a new viewpoint in the framework of energy constraint with a two-box model. We extend it to a three-box model, including the effect of wind-driven circulation. Using this simple model, we further study how ocean mixing impacts on thermohaline circulation under the energy constraint. (geophysics, astronomy, and astrophysics)
Gilabert, Francisco; Roux, Jean-Noël; Castellanos, Antonio
2008-01-01
International audience; The quasistatic behavior of a simple 2D model of a cohesive powder under isotropic loads is investigated by Discrete Element simulations. The loose packing states, as studied in a previous paper, undergo important structural changes under growing confining pressure P, while solid fraction \\Phi irreversibly increases by large amounts. The system state goes through three stages, with different forms of the plastic consolidation curve \\Phi(P*), under growing reduced press...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Volodymyr Kharchenko
2017-03-01
Full Text Available Purpose: the aim of this study is to research applied models of air traffic controllers’ errors prevention in terminal control areas (TMA under uncertainty conditions. In this work the theoretical framework descripting safety events and errors of air traffic controllers connected with the operations in TMA is proposed. Methods: optimisation of terminal control area formal description based on the Threat and Error management model and the TMA network model of air traffic flows. Results: the human factors variables associated with safety events in work of air traffic controllers under uncertainty conditions were obtained. The Threat and Error management model application principles to air traffic controller operations and the TMA network model of air traffic flows were proposed. Discussion: Information processing context for preventing air traffic controller errors, examples of threats in work of air traffic controllers, which are relevant for TMA operations under uncertainty conditions.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yu Du
2015-11-01
Full Text Available Blood cell aggregation and adhesion to endothelial cells under shear flow are crucial to many biological processes such as thrombi formation, inflammatory cascade, and tumor metastasis, in which these cellular interactions are mainly mediated by the underlying receptor–ligand bindings. While theoretical modeling of aggregation dynamics and adhesion kinetics of interacting cells have been well studied separately, how to couple these two processes remains unclear. Here we develop a combined model that couples cellular aggregation dynamics and adhesion kinetics under shear flow. The impacts of shear rate (or shear stress and molecular binding affinity were elucidated. This study provides a unified model where the action of a fluid flow drives cell aggregation and adhesion under the modulations of the mechanical shear flow and receptor–ligand interaction kinetics. It offers an insight into understanding the relevant biological processes and functions.
Pol-van Dasselaar, van den A.; Lantinga, E.A.
1995-01-01
A simulation model of the grassland carbon cycle (CCGRASS) was developed to evaluate the long-term effects of different management strategies and various environmental conditions on carbon sequestration in a loam soil under permanent grassland in the Netherlands. The model predicted that the rate of
Soot Formation Modeling of n-dodecane and Diesel Sprays under Engine-Like Conditions
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pang, Kar Mun; Poon, Hiew Mun; Ng, Hoon Kiat
2015-01-01
This work concerns the modelling of soot formation process in diesel spray combustion under engine-like conditions. The key aim is to investigate the soot formation characteristics at different ambient temperatures. Prior to simulating the diesel combustion, numerical models including a revised...
Behavior and sensitivity of an optimal tree diameter growth model under data uncertainty
Don C. Bragg
2005-01-01
Using loblolly pine, shortleaf pine, white oak, and northern red oak as examples, this paper considers the behavior of potential relative increment (PRI) models of optimal tree diameter growth under data uncertainity. Recommendations on intial sample size and the PRI iteractive curve fitting process are provided. Combining different state inventories prior to PRI model...
Modeling Clinic for Industrial Mathematics: A Collaborative Project Under Erasmus+ Program
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jurlewicz, Agnieszka; Nunes, Claudia; Russo, Giovanni
2018-01-01
Modeling Clinic for Industrial Mathematics (MODCLIM) is a Strategic Partnership for the Development of Training Workshops and Modeling Clinic for Industrial Mathematics, funded through the European Commission under the Erasmus Plus Program, Key Action 2: Cooperation for innovation and the exchang...
Fowler, Keirnan J. A.; Peel, Murray C.; Western, Andrew W.; Zhang, Lu; Peterson, Tim J.
2016-03-01
Hydrologic models have potential to be useful tools in planning for future climate variability. However, recent literature suggests that the current generation of conceptual rainfall runoff models tend to underestimate the sensitivity of runoff to a given change in rainfall, leading to poor performance when evaluated over multiyear droughts. This research revisited this conclusion, investigating whether the observed poor performance could be due to insufficient model calibration and evaluation techniques. We applied an approach based on Pareto optimality to explore trade-offs between model performance in different climatic conditions. Five conceptual rainfall runoff model structures were tested in 86 catchments in Australia, for a total of 430 Pareto analyses. The Pareto results were then compared with results from a commonly used model calibration and evaluation method, the Differential Split Sample Test. We found that the latter often missed potentially promising parameter sets within a given model structure, giving a false negative impression of the capabilities of the model. This suggests that models may be more capable under changing climatic conditions than previously thought. Of the 282[347] cases of apparent model failure under the split sample test using the lower [higher] of two model performance criteria trialed, 155[120] were false negatives. We discuss potential causes of remaining model failures, including the role of data errors. Although the Pareto approach proved useful, our aim was not to suggest an alternative calibration strategy, but to critically assess existing methods of model calibration and evaluation. We recommend caution when interpreting split sample results.
Numerically pricing American options under the generalized mixed fractional Brownian motion model
Chen, Wenting; Yan, Bowen; Lian, Guanghua; Zhang, Ying
2016-06-01
In this paper, we introduce a robust numerical method, based on the upwind scheme, for the pricing of American puts under the generalized mixed fractional Brownian motion (GMFBM) model. By using portfolio analysis and applying the Wick-Itô formula, a partial differential equation (PDE) governing the prices of vanilla options under the GMFBM is successfully derived for the first time. Based on this, we formulate the pricing of American puts under the current model as a linear complementarity problem (LCP). Unlike the classical Black-Scholes (B-S) model or the generalized B-S model discussed in Cen and Le (2011), the newly obtained LCP under the GMFBM model is difficult to be solved accurately because of the numerical instability which results from the degeneration of the governing PDE as time approaches zero. To overcome this difficulty, a numerical approach based on the upwind scheme is adopted. It is shown that the coefficient matrix of the current method is an M-matrix, which ensures its stability in the maximum-norm sense. Remarkably, we have managed to provide a sharp theoretic error estimate for the current method, which is further verified numerically. The results of various numerical experiments also suggest that this new approach is quite accurate, and can be easily extended to price other types of financial derivatives with an American-style exercise feature under the GMFBM model.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Soria-Verdugo, Antonio; Goos, Elke; Arrieta-Sanagustín, Jorge; García-Hernando, Nestor
2016-01-01
Highlights: • Pyrolysis of biomass under parabolic and exponential temperature profiles is modeled. • The model is based on a simplified Distributed Activation Energy Model. • 4 biomasses are analyzed in TGA with parabolic and exponential temperature increases. • Deviations between the model prediction and TGA measurements are under 5 °C. - Abstract: A modification of the simplified Distributed Activation Energy Model is proposed to simulate the pyrolysis of biomass under parabolic and exponential temperature increases. The pyrolysis of pine wood, olive kernel, thistle flower and corncob was experimentally studied in a TGA Q500 thermogravimetric analyzer. The results of the measurements of nine different parabolic and exponential temperature increases for each sample were employed to validate the models proposed. The deviation between the experimental TGA measurements and the estimation of the reacted fraction during the pyrolysis of the four samples under parabolic and exponential temperature increases was lower than 5 °C for all the cases studied. The models derived in this work to describe the pyrolysis of biomass with parabolic and exponential temperature increases were found to be in good agreement with the experiments conducted in a thermogravimetric analyzer.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kim, Jong Hyun; Seong, Poong Hyun
2002-01-01
This paper proposes a quantitative approach to modeling the information processing of NPP operators. The aim of this work is to derive the amount of the information processed during a certain control task under input information overload. We primarily develop the information processing model having multiple stages, which contains information flow. Then the uncertainty of the information is quantified using the Conant's model, a kind of information theory. We also investigate the applicability of this approach to quantifying the information reduction of operators under the input information overload
Modeling of radiation-induced charge trapping in MOS devices under ionizing irradiation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Petukhov, M. A., E-mail: m.a.petukhov@gmail.com; Ryazanov, A. I. [National Research Center Kurchatov Institute (Russian Federation)
2016-12-15
The numerical model of the radiation-induced charge trapping process in the oxide layer of a MOS device under ionizing irradiation is developed; the model includes carrier transport, hole capture by traps in different states, recombination of free electrons and trapped holes, kinetics of hydrogen ions which can be accumulated in the material during transistor manufacture, and accumulation and charging of interface states. Modeling of n-channel MOSFET behavior under 1 MeV photon irradiation is performed. The obtained dose dependences of the threshold voltage shift and its contributions from trapped holes and interface states are in good agreement with experimental data.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lauer, Mark A.; Poirier, David R.; Erdmann, Robert G.; Tewari, Surendra N.; Madison, Jonathan D
2014-09-01
This report covers the modeling of seven directionally solidified samples, five under normal gravitational conditions and two in microgravity. A model is presented to predict macrosegregation during the melting phases of samples solidified under microgravitational conditions. The results of this model are compared against two samples processed in microgravity and good agreement is found. A second model is presented that captures thermosolutal convection during directional solidification. Results for this model are compared across several experiments and quantitative comparisons are made between the model and the experimentally obtained radial macrosegregation profiles with good agreement being found. Changes in cross section were present in some samples and micrographs of these are qualitatively compared with the results of the simulations. It is found that macrosegregation patterns can be affected by changing the mold material.
An estimator of the survival function based on the semi-Markov model under dependent censorship.
Lee, Seung-Yeoun; Tsai, Wei-Yann
2005-06-01
Lee and Wolfe (Biometrics vol. 54 pp. 1176-1178, 1998) proposed the two-stage sampling design for testing the assumption of independent censoring, which involves further follow-up of a subset of lost-to-follow-up censored subjects. They also proposed an adjusted estimator for the survivor function for a proportional hazards model under the dependent censoring model. In this paper, a new estimator for the survivor function is proposed for the semi-Markov model under the dependent censorship on the basis of the two-stage sampling data. The consistency and the asymptotic distribution of the proposed estimator are derived. The estimation procedure is illustrated with an example of lung cancer clinical trial and simulation results are reported of the mean squared errors of estimators under a proportional hazards and two different nonproportional hazards models.
Stress-reducing preventive maintenance model for a unit under stressful environment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Park, J.H.; Chang, Woojin; Lie, C.H.
2012-01-01
We develop a preventive maintenance (PM) model for a unit operated under stressful environment. The PM model in this paper consists of a failure rate model and two cost models to determine the optimal PM scheduling which minimizes a cost rate. The assumption for the proposed model is that stressful environment accelerates the failure of the unit and periodic maintenances reduce stress from outside. The failure rate model handles the maintenance effect of PM using improvement and stress factors. The cost models are categorized into two failure recognition cases: immediate failure recognition and periodic failure detection. The optimal PM scheduling is obtained by considering the trade-off between the related cost and the lifetime of a unit in our model setting. The practical usage of our proposed model is tested through a numerical example.
PATELLOFEMORAL MODEL OF THE KNEE JOINT UNDER NON-STANDARD SQUATTING
FEKETE, GUSZTÁV; CSIZMADIA, BÉLA MÁLNÁSI; WAHAB, MAGD ABDEL; DE BAETS, PATRICK; VANEGAS-USECHE, LIBARDO V.; BÍRÓ, ISTVÁN
2014-01-01
The available analytical models for calculating knee patellofemoral forces are limited to the standard squat motion when the center of gravity is fixed horizontally. In this paper, an analytical model is presented to calculate accurately patellofemoral forces by taking into account the change in position of the trunk's center of gravity under deep squat (non-standard squatting). The accuracy of the derived model is validated through comparisons with results of the inverse dynamics technique. ...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Moral, A. del; Azanza, María J.
2015-01-01
A biomagnetic-electrical model is presented that explains rather well the experimentally observed synchronization of the bioelectric potential firing rate (“frequency”), f, of single unit neurons of Helix aspersa mollusc under the application of extremely low frequency (ELF) weak alternating (AC) magnetic fields (MF). The proposed model incorporates to our widely experimentally tested model of superdiamagnetism (SD) and Ca 2+ Coulomb explosion (CE) from lipid (LP) bilayer membrane (SD–CE model), the electrical quadrupolar long range interaction between the bilayer LP membranes of synchronized neuron pairs, not considered before. The quadrupolar interaction is capable of explaining well the observed synchronization. Actual extension of our SD–CE-model shows that the neuron firing frequency field, B, dependence becomes not modified, but the bioelectric frequency is decreased and its spontaneous temperature, T, dependence is modified. A comparison of the model with synchronization experimental results of pair of neurons under weak (B 0 ≅0.2–15 mT) AC-MF of frequency f M =50 Hz is reported. From the deduced size of synchronized LP clusters under B, is suggested the formation of small neuron networks via the membrane lipid correlation. - Highlights: • Neuron pair synchronization under low frequency alternating (AC) magnetic field (MF). • Superdiamagnetism and Ca 2+ Coulomb explosion for AC MF effect in synchronized frequency. • Membrane lipid electrical quadrupolar pair interaction as synchronization mechamism. • Good agreement of model with electrophysiological experiments on mollusc Helix neurons
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Moral, A. del, E-mail: delmoral@unizar.es [Laboratorio de Magnetismo, Departamento de Física de Materia Condensada and Instituto de Ciencia de Materiales, Universidad de Zaragoza and Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, 50009 Zaragoza (Spain); Laboratorio de Magnetobiología, Departamento de Anatomía e Histología, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Zaragoza, 50009 Zaragoza (Spain); Centro de Tecnología Biomédica, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, 28223 Madrid (Spain); Azanza, María J., E-mail: mjazanza@unizar.es [Laboratorio de Magnetobiología, Departamento de Anatomía e Histología, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Zaragoza, 50009 Zaragoza (Spain); Centro de Tecnología Biomédica, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, 28223 Madrid (Spain)
2015-03-01
A biomagnetic-electrical model is presented that explains rather well the experimentally observed synchronization of the bioelectric potential firing rate (“frequency”), f, of single unit neurons of Helix aspersa mollusc under the application of extremely low frequency (ELF) weak alternating (AC) magnetic fields (MF). The proposed model incorporates to our widely experimentally tested model of superdiamagnetism (SD) and Ca{sup 2+} Coulomb explosion (CE) from lipid (LP) bilayer membrane (SD–CE model), the electrical quadrupolar long range interaction between the bilayer LP membranes of synchronized neuron pairs, not considered before. The quadrupolar interaction is capable of explaining well the observed synchronization. Actual extension of our SD–CE-model shows that the neuron firing frequency field, B, dependence becomes not modified, but the bioelectric frequency is decreased and its spontaneous temperature, T, dependence is modified. A comparison of the model with synchronization experimental results of pair of neurons under weak (B{sub 0}≅0.2–15 mT) AC-MF of frequency f{sub M}=50 Hz is reported. From the deduced size of synchronized LP clusters under B, is suggested the formation of small neuron networks via the membrane lipid correlation. - Highlights: • Neuron pair synchronization under low frequency alternating (AC) magnetic field (MF). • Superdiamagnetism and Ca{sup 2+} Coulomb explosion for AC MF effect in synchronized frequency. • Membrane lipid electrical quadrupolar pair interaction as synchronization mechamism. • Good agreement of model with electrophysiological experiments on mollusc Helix neurons.
Applicability of common stomatal conductance models in maize under varying soil moisture conditions.
Wang, Qiuling; He, Qijin; Zhou, Guangsheng
2018-07-01
In the context of climate warming, the varying soil moisture caused by precipitation pattern change will affect the applicability of stomatal conductance models, thereby affecting the simulation accuracy of carbon-nitrogen-water cycles in ecosystems. We studied the applicability of four common stomatal conductance models including Jarvis, Ball-Woodrow-Berry (BWB), Ball-Berry-Leuning (BBL) and unified stomatal optimization (USO) models based on summer maize leaf gas exchange data from a soil moisture consecutive decrease manipulation experiment. The results showed that the USO model performed best, followed by the BBL model, BWB model, and the Jarvis model performed worst under varying soil moisture conditions. The effects of soil moisture made a difference in the relative performance among the models. By introducing a water response function, the performance of the Jarvis, BWB, and USO models improved, which decreased the normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) by 15.7%, 16.6% and 3.9%, respectively; however, the performance of the BBL model was negative, which increased the NRMSE by 5.3%. It was observed that the models of Jarvis, BWB, BBL and USO were applicable within different ranges of soil relative water content (i.e., 55%-65%, 56%-67%, 37%-79% and 37%-95%, respectively) based on the 95% confidence limits. Moreover, introducing a water response function, the applicability of the Jarvis and BWB models improved. The USO model performed best with or without introducing the water response function and was applicable under varying soil moisture conditions. Our results provide a basis for selecting appropriate stomatal conductance models under drought conditions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Wetterhall, F.; Cloke, H. L.; He, Y.; Freer, J.; Pappenberger, F.
2012-04-01
Evidence provided by modelled assessments of climate change impact on flooding is fundamental to water resource and flood risk decision making. Impact models usually rely on climate projections from Global and Regional Climate Models, and there is no doubt that these provide a useful assessment of future climate change. However, cascading ensembles of climate projections into impact models is not straightforward because of problems of coarse resolution in Global and Regional Climate Models (GCM/RCM) and the deficiencies in modelling high-intensity precipitation events. Thus decisions must be made on how to appropriately pre-process the meteorological variables from GCM/RCMs, such as selection of downscaling methods and application of Model Output Statistics (MOS). In this paper a grand ensemble of projections from several GCM/RCM are used to drive a hydrological model and analyse the resulting future flood projections for the Upper Severn, UK. The impact and implications of applying MOS techniques to precipitation as well as hydrological model parameter uncertainty is taken into account. The resultant grand ensemble of future river discharge projections from the RCM/GCM-hydrological model chain is evaluated against a response surface technique combined with a perturbed physics experiment creating a probabilisic ensemble climate model outputs. The ensemble distribution of results show that future risk of flooding in the Upper Severn increases compared to present conditions, however, the study highlights that the uncertainties are large and that strong assumptions were made in using Model Output Statistics to produce the estimates of future discharge. The importance of analysing on a seasonal basis rather than just annual is highlighted. The inability of the RCMs (and GCMs) to produce realistic precipitation patterns, even in present conditions, is a major caveat of local climate impact studies on flooding, and this should be a focus for future development.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Baidillah, Marlin R; Takei, Masahiro
2017-01-01
A nonlinear normalization model which is called exponential model for electrical capacitance tomography (ECT) with external electrodes under gap permittivity conditions has been developed. The exponential model normalization is proposed based on the inherently nonlinear relationship characteristic between the mixture permittivity and the measured capacitance due to the gap permittivity of inner wall. The parameters of exponential equation are derived by using an exponential fitting curve based on the simulation and a scaling function is added to adjust the experiment system condition. The exponential model normalization was applied to two dimensional low and high contrast dielectric distribution phantoms by using simulation and experimental studies. The proposed normalization model has been compared with other normalization models i.e. Parallel, Series, Maxwell and Böttcher models. Based on the comparison of image reconstruction results, the exponential model is reliable to predict the nonlinear normalization of measured capacitance in term of low and high contrast dielectric distribution. (paper)
A general circuit model for spintronic devices under electric and magnetic fields
Alawein, Meshal
2017-10-25
In this work, we present a circuit model of diffusive spintronic devices capable of capturing the effects of both electric and magnetic fields. Starting from a modified version of the well-established drift-diffusion equations, we derive general equivalent circuit models of semiconducting/metallic nonmagnets and metallic ferromagnets. In contrast to other models that are based on steady-state transport equations which might also neglect certain effects such as thermal fluctuations, spin dissipation in the ferromagnets, and spin precession under magnetic fields, our model incorporates most of the important physics and is based on a time-dependent formulation. An application of our model is shown through simulations of a nonlocal spin-valve under the presence of a magnetic field, where we reproduce experimental results of electrical measurements that demonstrate the phenomena of spin precession and dephasing (“Hanle effect”).
A Partially-Stirred Batch Reactor Model for Under-Ventilated Fire Dynamics
McDermott, Randall; Weinschenk, Craig
2013-11-01
A simple discrete quadrature method is developed for closure of the mean chemical source term in large-eddy simulations (LES) and implemented in the publicly available fire model, Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS). The method is cast as a partially-stirred batch reactor model for each computational cell. The model has three distinct components: (1) a subgrid mixing environment, (2) a mixing model, and (3) a set of chemical rate laws. The subgrid probability density function (PDF) is described by a linear combination of Dirac delta functions with quadrature weights set to satisfy simple integral constraints for the computational cell. It is shown that under certain limiting assumptions, the present method reduces to the eddy dissipation concept (EDC). The model is used to predict carbon monoxide concentrations in direct numerical simulation (DNS) of a methane slot burner and in LES of an under-ventilated compartment fire.
Development of the model for the stress calculation of fuel assembly under accident load
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kim, Il Kon
1993-01-01
The finite element model for the stress calculation in guide thimbles of a fuel assembly (FA) under seismic and loss-of-coolant-accident (LOCA) load is developed. For the stress calculation of FA under accident load, at first the program MAIN is developed to select the worst bending mode shaped FA from core model. And then the model for the stress calculation of FA is developed by means of the finite element code. The calculated results of program MAIN are used as the kinematic constraints of the finite element model of a FA. Compared the calculated results of the stiffness of the finite element model of FA with the test results they have good agreements. (Author)
Theoretical model for the mechanical behavior of prestressed beams under torsion
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sérgio M.R. Lopes
2014-12-01
Full Text Available In this article, a global theoretical model previously developed and validated by the authors for reinforced concrete beams under torsion is reviewed and corrected in order to predict the global behavior of beams under torsion with uniform longitudinal prestress. These corrections are based on the introduction of prestress factors and on the modification of the equilibrium equations in order to incorporate the contribution of the prestressing reinforcement. The theoretical results obtained with the new model are compared with some available results of prestressed concrete (PC beams under torsion found in the literature. The results obtained in this study validate the proposed computing procedure to predict the overall behavior of PC beams under torsion.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bairrao, R.; Millard, A.; Barbe, B.
1991-01-01
A large set of numerical data was obtained using a program recently developed. From the various results achieved, new analytical expressions for the definition of damage and plasticity criteria are being derived. The importance of taking into account the presence of general bending was highlighted. The extension to 3D bending, of the previous global models for reinforced concrete beams under combined axial force and bending, is under development. (author)
Model test study of evaporation mechanism of sand under constant atmospheric condition
CUI, Yu Jun; DING, Wenqi; SONG, Weikang
2014-01-01
The evaporation mechanism of Fontainebleau sand using a large-scale model chamber is studied. First, the evaporation test on a layer of water above sand surface is performed under various atmospheric conditions, validating the performance of the chamber and the calculation method of actual evaporation rate by comparing the calculated and measured cumulative evaporations. Second,the evaporation test on sand without water layer is conducted under constant atmospheric condition. Both the evoluti...
Optimized production planning model for a multi-plant cultivation system under uncertainty
Ke, Shunkui; Guo, Doudou; Niu, Qingliang; Huang, Danfeng
2015-02-01
An inexact multi-constraint programming model under uncertainty was developed by incorporating a production plan algorithm into the crop production optimization framework under the multi-plant collaborative cultivation system. In the production plan, orders from the customers are assigned to a suitable plant under the constraints of plant capabilities and uncertainty parameters to maximize profit and achieve customer satisfaction. The developed model and solution method were applied to a case study of a multi-plant collaborative cultivation system to verify its applicability. As determined in the case analysis involving different orders from customers, the period of plant production planning and the interval between orders can significantly affect system benefits. Through the analysis of uncertain parameters, reliable and practical decisions can be generated using the suggested model of a multi-plant collaborative cultivation system.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Maevskii, K. K.; Kinelovskii, S. A.
2015-01-01
The numerical results of modeling of shock wave loading of mixtures with the SiO 2 component are presented. The TEC (thermodynamic equilibrium component) model is employed to describe the behavior of solid and porous multicomponent mixtures and alloys under shock wave loading. State equations of a Mie–Grüneisen type are used to describe the behavior of condensed phases, taking into account the temperature dependence of the Grüneisen coefficient, gas in pores is one of the components of the environment. The model is based on the assumption that all components of the mixture under shock-wave loading are in thermodynamic equilibrium. The calculation results are compared with the experimental data derived by various authors. The behavior of the mixture containing components with a phase transition under high dynamic loads is described
A Novel Modelling Approach for Predicting Forest Growth and Yield under Climate Change.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M Irfan Ashraf
Full Text Available Global climate is changing due to increasing anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. Forest managers need growth and yield models that can be used to predict future forest dynamics during the transition period of present-day forests under a changing climatic regime. In this study, we developed a forest growth and yield model that can be used to predict individual-tree growth under current and projected future climatic conditions. The model was constructed by integrating historical tree growth records with predictions from an ecological process-based model using neural networks. The new model predicts basal area (BA and volume growth for individual trees in pure or mixed species forests. For model development, tree-growth data under current climatic conditions were obtained using over 3000 permanent sample plots from the Province of Nova Scotia, Canada. Data to reflect tree growth under a changing climatic regime were projected with JABOWA-3 (an ecological process-based model. Model validation with designated data produced model efficiencies of 0.82 and 0.89 in predicting individual-tree BA and volume growth. Model efficiency is a relative index of model performance, where 1 indicates an ideal fit, while values lower than zero means the predictions are no better than the average of the observations. Overall mean prediction error (BIAS of basal area and volume growth predictions was nominal (i.e., for BA: -0.0177 cm(2 5-year(-1 and volume: 0.0008 m(3 5-year(-1. Model variability described by root mean squared error (RMSE in basal area prediction was 40.53 cm(2 5-year(-1 and 0.0393 m(3 5-year(-1 in volume prediction. The new modelling approach has potential to reduce uncertainties in growth and yield predictions under different climate change scenarios. This novel approach provides an avenue for forest managers to generate required information for the management of forests in transitional periods of climate change. Artificial intelligence
Ramin, Elham; Sin, Gürkan; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Plósz, Benedek Gy
2014-10-15
Current research focuses on predicting and mitigating the impacts of high hydraulic loadings on centralized wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) under wet-weather conditions. The maximum permissible inflow to WWTPs depends not only on the settleability of activated sludge in secondary settling tanks (SSTs) but also on the hydraulic behaviour of SSTs. The present study investigates the impacts of ideal and non-ideal flow (dry and wet weather) and settling (good settling and bulking) boundary conditions on the sensitivity of WWTP model outputs to uncertainties intrinsic to the one-dimensional (1-D) SST model structures and parameters. We identify the critical sources of uncertainty in WWTP models through global sensitivity analysis (GSA) using the Benchmark simulation model No. 1 in combination with first- and second-order 1-D SST models. The results obtained illustrate that the contribution of settling parameters to the total variance of the key WWTP process outputs significantly depends on the influent flow and settling conditions. The magnitude of the impact is found to vary, depending on which type of 1-D SST model is used. Therefore, we identify and recommend potential parameter subsets for WWTP model calibration, and propose optimal choice of 1-D SST models under different flow and settling boundary conditions. Additionally, the hydraulic parameters in the second-order SST model are found significant under dynamic wet-weather flow conditions. These results highlight the importance of developing a more mechanistic based flow-dependent hydraulic sub-model in second-order 1-D SST models in the future. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Equilibrium Asset and Option Pricing under Jump-Diffusion Model with Stochastic Volatility
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xinfeng Ruan
2013-01-01
Full Text Available We study the equity premium and option pricing under jump-diffusion model with stochastic volatility based on the model in Zhang et al. 2012. We obtain the pricing kernel which acts like the physical and risk-neutral densities and the moments in the economy. Moreover, the exact expression of option valuation is derived by the Fourier transformation method. We also discuss the relationship of central moments between the physical measure and the risk-neutral measure. Our numerical results show that our model is more realistic than the previous model.
CFD modeling of heat transfer performance of MgO-water nanofluid under turbulent flow
Davarnejad, Reza; Jamshidzadeh, Maryam
2015-01-01
In this paper, Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling of turbulent heat transfer behavior of Magnesium Oxide-water nanofluid in a circular tube was studied. The modeling was two dimensional under k–ε turbulence model. The base fluid was pure water and the volume fraction of nanoparticles in the base fluid was 0.0625%, 0.125%, 0.25%, 0.5% and 1%. The applied Reynolds number range was 3000–19000. Three individual models including single phase, Volume of Fluid (VOF) and mixture were used. T...
A new model for deteriorating items with inflation under permissible delay in payments
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
R.P. Tripathi
2014-05-01
Full Text Available Inflation is an important factor influencing traditional economic order quality models. Marketing strategy depends on inflation due to public demand and availability of the materials. This paper presents an optimal inventory policy for deteriorating items using exponential demand rate under permissible delay in payments. Mathematical model has been derived under two cases: case I: cycle time is greater than or equal to permissible delay period, case II: cycle time is less than permissible delay period by considering holding cost as a function of time. Numerical examples and sensitivity analysis are given to reflect the numerical results. Mathematica software is used for finding optimal solutions.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Perelson, Alan S [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Shudo, Emi [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Ribeiro, Ruy M [Los Alamos National Laboratory
2008-01-01
Mathematical models have proven helpful in analyzing the virological response to antiviral therapy in hepatitis C virus (HCY) infected subjects. Objective: To summarize the uses and limitations of different models for analyzing HCY kinetic data under pegylated interferon therapy. Methods: We formulate mathematical models and fit them by nonlinear least square regression to patient data in order estimate model parameters. We compare the goodness of fit and parameter values estimated by different models statistically. Results/Conclusion: The best model for parameter estimation depends on the availability and the quality of data as well as the therapy used. We also discuss the mathematical models that will be needed to analyze HCV kinetic data from clinical trials with new antiviral drugs.
Predictive Models and Tools for Screening Chemicals under TSCA: Consumer Exposure Models 1.5
CEM contains a combination of models and default parameters which are used to estimate inhalation, dermal, and oral exposures to consumer products and articles for a wide variety of product and article use categories.
Hu, Shaowen; Cucinotta, Francis A.
2009-01-01
Space radiation poses significant challenges to space travel, and it is essential to understand the possible adverse effects from space radiation exposure to the radiosensitive organ systems that are important for immediate survival of human, e.g., the hematopoietic system. In this presentation a biomathematical model of granulocytopoiesis is described and used to analyze the blood granulocyte changes seen in the blood of mammalians under continuous and acute radiation exposure. This is one of a set of hematopoietic models that have been successfully utilized to simulate and interpret the experimental data of acute and chronic radiation on rodents. We discuss the underlying implicit regulation mechanism and the biological relevance of the kinetic parameters estimation method. Extension of the model to predictions in dogs and humans systems indicates that the modeling results are consistent with the cumulative experimental and empirical data from various sources. This implies the potential to integrate the models into one united system for monitoring the hematopoietic response of various species under irradiation. Based on the evidence of threshold responses of dogs to extended periods of low daily dose exposures, we discuss the potential health risks of the space traveler under chronic stress of low-dose irradiation and the possibly encountered Solar Particle Events.
Determination of modeling parameters for power IGBTs under pulsed power conditions
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Dale, Gregory E [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Van Gordon, Jim A [U. OF MISSOURI; Kovaleski, Scott D [U. OF MISSOURI
2010-01-01
While the power insulated gate bipolar transistor (IGRT) is used in many applications, it is not well characterized under pulsed power conditions. This makes the IGBT difficult to model for solid state pulsed power applications. The Oziemkiewicz implementation of the Hefner model is utilized to simulate IGBTs in some circuit simulation software packages. However, the seventeen parameters necessary for the Oziemkiewicz implementation must be known for the conditions under which the device will be operating. Using both experimental and simulated data with a least squares curve fitting technique, the parameters necessary to model a given IGBT can be determined. This paper presents two sets of these seventeen parameters that correspond to two different models of power IGBTs. Specifically, these parameters correspond to voltages up to 3.5 kV, currents up to 750 A, and pulse widths up to 10 {micro}s. Additionally, comparisons of the experimental and simulated data will be presented.
BRISENT: An Entropy-Based Model for Bridge-Pier Scour Estimation under Complex Hydraulic Scenarios
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Alonso Pizarro
2017-11-01
Full Text Available The goal of this paper is to introduce the first clear-water scour model based on both the informational entropy concept and the principle of maximum entropy, showing that a variational approach is ideal for describing erosional processes under complex situations. The proposed bridge–pier scour entropic (BRISENT model is capable of reproducing the main dynamics of scour depth evolution under steady hydraulic conditions, step-wise hydrographs, and flood waves. For the calibration process, 266 clear-water scour experiments from 20 precedent studies were considered, where the dimensionless parameters varied widely. Simple formulations are proposed to estimate BRISENT’s fitting coefficients, in which the ratio between pier-diameter and sediment-size was the most critical physical characteristic controlling scour model parametrization. A validation process considering highly unsteady and multi-peaked hydrographs was carried out, showing that the proposed BRISENT model reproduces scour evolution with high accuracy.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mamivand, Mahmood; Yang, Ying; Busby, Jeremy T.; Morgan, Dane
2017-01-01
The current work combines the Cluster Dynamics (CD) technique and CALPHAD-based precipitation modeling to address the second phase precipitation in cold-worked (CW) 316 stainless steels (SS) under irradiation at 300–400 °C. CD provides the radiation enhanced diffusion and dislocation evolution as inputs for the precipitation model. The CALPHAD-based precipitation model treats the nucleation, growth and coarsening of precipitation processes based on classical nucleation theory and evolution equations, and simulates the composition, size and size distribution of precipitate phases. We benchmark the model against available experimental data at fast reactor conditions (9.4 × 10"–"7 dpa/s and 390 °C) and then use the model to predict the phase instability of CW 316 SS under light water reactor (LWR) extended life conditions (7 × 10"–"8 dpa/s and 275 °C). The model accurately predicts the γ' (Ni_3Si) precipitation evolution under fast reactor conditions and that the formation of this phase is dominated by radiation enhanced segregation. The model also predicts a carbide volume fraction that agrees well with available experimental data from a PWR reactor but is much higher than the volume fraction observed in fast reactors. We propose that radiation enhanced dissolution and/or carbon depletion at sinks that occurs at high flux could be the main sources of this inconsistency. The integrated model predicts ~1.2% volume fraction for carbide and ~3.0% volume fraction for γ' for typical CW 316 SS (with 0.054 wt% carbon) under LWR extended life conditions. Finally, this work provides valuable insights into the magnitudes and mechanisms of precipitation in irradiated CW 316 SS for nuclear applications.
Bakanauskienė Irena; Baronienė Laura
2017-01-01
This article is intended to theoretically justify the decision-making process model for the cases, when active participation of investing entities in controlling the activities of an organisation and their results is noticeable. Based on scientific literature analysis, a concept of controlled conditions is formulated, and using a rational approach to the decision-making process, a model of the 11-steps decision-making process under controlled intervention is presented. Also, there have been u...
A. Mirzazadeh
2011-01-01
The inventory models, generally, are derived with considering two methods: (1) minimizing the average annual cost or (2) minimizing the discounted cost. This paper compares the optimal ordering policies determined by these methods under uncertain inflationary situations. The inventory and shortages behavior have been analyzed with using the differential equations. The numerical examples are used to illustrate the theoretical results. A detailed analysis on the models parameters has been perfo...
Stumpp, C.; Nützmann, G.; Maciejewski, S.; Maloszewski, P.
2009-09-01
SummaryIn this paper, five model approaches with different physical and mathematical concepts varying in their model complexity and requirements were applied to identify the transport processes in the unsaturated zone. The applicability of these model approaches were compared and evaluated investigating two tracer breakthrough curves (bromide, deuterium) in a cropped, free-draining lysimeter experiment under natural atmospheric boundary conditions. The data set consisted of time series of water balance, depth resolved water contents, pressure heads and resident concentrations measured during 800 days. The tracer transport parameters were determined using a simple stochastic (stream tube model), three lumped parameter (constant water content model, multi-flow dispersion model, variable flow dispersion model) and a transient model approach. All of them were able to fit the tracer breakthrough curves. The identified transport parameters of each model approach were compared. Despite the differing physical and mathematical concepts the resulting parameters (mean water contents, mean water flux, dispersivities) of the five model approaches were all in the same range. The results indicate that the flow processes are also describable assuming steady state conditions. Homogeneous matrix flow is dominant and a small pore volume with enhanced flow velocities near saturation was identified with variable saturation flow and transport approach. The multi-flow dispersion model also identified preferential flow and additionally suggested a third less mobile flow component. Due to high fitting accuracy and parameter similarity all model approaches indicated reliable results.
A model system to give an insight into the behaviour of gold nanoparticles under ion irradiation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ramjauny, Y.
2010-01-01
Nano-composites fabricated with ion-based techniques have a number of attractive characteristics. However, the main and most crucial difficulty in obtaining commercial NPs-based devices is the inability to produce a suitable narrow size and spatial NP distributions. The objective of this thesis is twofold: i) to go further in the description of the behavior of the ion-driven NPs and ii) to overcome the limitations related to the ion-beam techniques providing a guideline methodology to rationalize the synthesis of NPs when ion-beams are used. Thus, a model system is fabricated. It consists of chemically synthesized metallic nanoparticles sandwiched between two silica layers. We show how the ion irradiation and the temperature can be used to tune the size distribution of the embedded NPs. Moreover, we show that when an initially large NPs size distribution is considered, the study of the growth kinetic of the NPs under irradiation can be problematic. Our model system is than used to investigate in detail the behavior of the NPs under irradiation. We show that the evolution of the precipitate phase under irradiation is successfully described by an Ostwald ripening mechanism in an open system limited by the diffusion. Moreover, the concentration threshold for nucleation as well as the surface tension and the gold diffusivity in silica under irradiation is estimated. Finally, direct and inverse Ostwald ripening processes under irradiation are systematically investigated and the existing theoretical models experimentally checked. (author)
Comparison of Predictive Models for Photovoltaic Module Performance under Sudanese-Sahelian Climate
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Njomo Donatien
2012-06-01
Full Text Available This paper investigates various approaches to the modeling of photovoltaic systems and tests their accuracy under tropical climate. Particularly the single diode model is used to estimate the electrical behavior of the cell with respect changes on environmental parameter of temperature and irradiance. A particular typical MXS60 solar panel is used for models evaluation and results are comparing with points taken directly from the experience made on the same panel in tropical climate of the Sudan type . The accuracy of models was computed and the better model was determined for local conditions. The analysis of the curves shows that the single diode model has the better accuracy whereas the Photovoltaic geographical information system (PVGIS approach seems to be not appropriate for the region.
Inelastic response of PCRV structure model with star-type support under horizontal loads
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Suzuki, T.; Yamaguchi, T.; Takeda, T.
1978-01-01
The report presents the test results of scaled models for prestressed concrete reactor vessel (PCRV) structure with star-shaped support under horizontal loads. A scale factor of 1 / 70 to a proto-type PCRV structure for large HTGR is used for both static and dynamic loading test models, while a 1 / 15 scaled model is used for static loading tests. The static behaviors such as a load-deflection envelope of the 1 / 70 model are predicted well by an inelastic analysis in consideration with appearance of concrete cracks and reinforcing bar yielding. It is also ascertained by the test results of the 1 / 15 model under static alternative loads that the same analysis procedure can be applicable to the evaluation of the elastic and inelastic behaviors of PCRV structure with support. Based on the static loading test results of both scaled models, a tri-linearized load-deflection envelope and an equivalent linearized mathematical model for hysteresis loop are assumed in a dynamic analysis. A dynamic response analysis of the 1 / 70 model subjected to earthquake-like base motion is conducted by the similar manner above-mentioned and the calculated results show a good correlation with the test results
South Palomares, Jennifer K; Sutherland, Clare A M; Young, Andrew W
2017-12-17
Given the frequency of relationships nowadays initiated online, where impressions from face photographs may influence relationship initiation, it is important to understand how facial first impressions might be used in such contexts. We therefore examined the applicability of a leading model of verbally expressed partner preferences to impressions derived from real face images and investigated how the factor structure of first impressions based on potential partner preference-related traits might relate to a more general model of facial first impressions. Participants rated 1,000 everyday face photographs on 12 traits selected to represent (Fletcher, et al. 1999, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 76, 72) verbal model of partner preferences. Facial trait judgements showed an underlying structure that largely paralleled the tripartite structure of Fletcher et al.'s verbal preference model, regardless of either face gender or participant gender. Furthermore, there was close correspondence between the verbal partner preference model and a more general tripartite model of facial first impressions derived from a different literature (Sutherland et al., 2013, Cognition, 127, 105), suggesting an underlying correspondence between verbal conceptual models of romantic preferences and more general models of facial first impressions. © 2017 The British Psychological Society.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Peña, Alfredo; Réthoré, Pierre-Elouan; Rathmann, Ole
2013-01-01
Here, we evaluate a modified version of the Park wake model against power data from a west-east row in the middle of the Horns Rev I offshore wind farm. The evaluation is performed on data classified in four different atmospheric stability conditions, for a narrow wind speed range, and a wide ran...
A theoretical model of the evolution of maternal effects under parent-offspring conflict
Uller, Tobias; Pen, Ido
The evolution of maternal effects on offspring phenotype should depend on the extent of parent-offspring conflict and costs and constraints associated with maternal and offspring strategies. Here, we develop a model of maternal effects on offspring dispersal phenotype under parent-offspring conflict
An increase in abnormal climate change patterns and unsustainable irrigation in uplands cause drought and affect agricultural water security, crop productivity, and price fluctuations. In this study, we developed a soil moisture model to project irrigation requirements (IR) for upland crops under cl...
The ruin probability of a discrete time risk model under constant interest rate with heavy tails
Tang, Q.
2004-01-01
This paper investigates the ultimate ruin probability of a discrete time risk model with a positive constant interest rate. Under the assumption that the gross loss of the company within one year is subexponentially distributed, a simple asymptotic relation for the ruin probability is derived and
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Malherbe, J
2011-09-01
Full Text Available , no such change has been noted when all closed warm-core low pressure systems are considered. Several studies have through the use of coupled global circulation models globally reported a projected decrease in the number of tropical cyclones expected under...
Effective Strategy Formation Models for Inventory Management under the Conditions of Uncertainty
Kosorukov, Oleg Anatolyevich; Sviridova, Olga Alexandrovna
2015-01-01
The article deals with the problem of modeling the commodity flows management of a trading company under the conditions of uncertain demand and long supply. The Author presents an analysis of modifications of diversified inventory management system with random demand, for which one can find the optimal inventory control strategies, including those…
Janic, M.
2009-01-01
This paper develops an analytical model for the assessment of the cost performance of a given logistics network operating under regular and irregular (disruptive) conditions. In addition, the paper aims to carry out a sensitivity analysis of this cost with respect to changes of the most influencing
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Guedes, J.M.; Rodrigues, H.C.; Bendsøe, Martin P.
2003-01-01
This paper describes a computational model, based on inverse homogenization and topology design, for approximating energy bounds for two-phase composites under multiple load cases. The approach allows for the identification of possible single-scale cellular materials that give rise to the optimal...
G. Thirel; V. Andreassian; C. Perrin; J.-N. Audouy; L. Berthet; Pamela Edwards; N. Folton; C. Furusho; A. Kuentz; J. Lerat; G. Lindstrom; E. Martin; T. Mathevet; R. Merz; J. Parajka; D. Ruelland; J. Vaze
2015-01-01
Testing hydrological models under changing conditions is essential to evaluate their ability to cope with changing catchments and their suitability for impact studies. With this perspective in mind, a workshop dedicated to this issue was held at the 2013 General Assembly of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) in GÃ¶teborg, Sweden, in July 2013...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Leach, S.J.; Pryke, D.C.
1986-05-01
A simple program, NearSol, has been written in Fortran 77 on the Harwell Central Computer to model the aqueous speciation and solubility of actinides under near-field conditions for disposal using a simple thermodynamic approach. The methodology and running of the program are described together with a worked example. (author)
A Bingham-plastic model for fluid mud transport under waves and currents
Liu, Chun-rong; Wu, Bo; Huhe, Ao-de
2014-04-01
Simplified equations of fluid mud motion, which is described as Bingham-Plastic model under waves and currents, are presented by order analysis. The simplified equations are non-linear ordinary differential equations which are solved by hybrid numerical-analytical technique. As the computational cost is very low, the effects of wave current parameters and fluid mud properties on the transportation velocity of the fluid mud are studied systematically. It is found that the fluid mud can move toward one direction even if the shear stress acting on the fluid mud bed is much smaller than the fluid mud yield stress under the condition of wave and current coexistence. Experiments of the fluid mud motion under current with fluctuation water surface are carried out. The fluid mud transportation velocity predicted by the presented mathematical model can roughly match that measured in experiments.
Numerical Models of Human Circulatory System under Altered Gravity: Brain Circulation
Kim, Chang Sung; Kiris, Cetin; Kwak, Dochan; David, Tim
2003-01-01
A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) approach is presented to model the blood flow through the human circulatory system under altered gravity conditions. Models required for CFD simulation relevant to major hemodynamic issues are introduced such as non-Newtonian flow models governed by red blood cells, a model for arterial wall motion due to fluid-wall interactions, a vascular bed model for outflow boundary conditions, and a model for auto-regulation mechanism. The three-dimensional unsteady incompressible Navier-Stokes equations coupled with these models are solved iteratively using the pseudocompressibility method and dual time stepping. Moving wall boundary conditions from the first-order fluid-wall interaction model are used to study the influence of arterial wall distensibility on flow patterns and wall shear stresses during the heart pulse. A vascular bed modeling utilizing the analogy with electric circuits is coupled with an auto-regulation algorithm for multiple outflow boundaries. For the treatment of complex geometry, a chimera overset grid technique is adopted to obtain connectivity between arterial branches. For code validation, computed results are compared with experimental data for steady and unsteady non-Newtonian flows. Good agreement is obtained for both cases. In sin-type Gravity Benchmark Problems, gravity source terms are added to the Navier-Stokes equations to study the effect of gravitational variation on the human circulatory system. This computational approach is then applied to localized blood flows through a realistic carotid bifurcation and two Circle of Willis models, one using an idealized geometry and the other model using an anatomical data set. A three- dimensional anatomical Circle of Willis configuration is reconstructed from human-specific magnetic resonance images using an image segmentation method. The blood flow through these Circle of Willis models is simulated to provide means for studying gravitational effects on the brain
Franz, Guilherme; Delpey, Matthias T.; Brito, David; Pinto, Lígia; Leitão, Paulo; Neves, Ramiro
2017-09-01
Coastal defence structures are often constructed to prevent beach erosion. However, poorly designed structures may cause serious erosion problems in the downdrift direction. Morphological models are useful tools to predict such impacts and assess the efficiency of defence structures for different scenarios. Nevertheless, morphological modelling is still a topic under intense research effort. The processes simulated by a morphological model depend on model complexity. For instance, undertow currents are neglected in coastal area models (2DH), which is a limitation for simulating the evolution of beach profiles for long periods. Model limitations are generally overcome by predefining invariant equilibrium profiles that are allowed to shift offshore or onshore. A more flexible approach is described in this paper, which can be generalised to 3-D models. The present work is based on the coupling of the MOHID modelling system and the SWAN wave model. The impacts of different designs of detached breakwaters and groynes were simulated in a schematic beach configuration following a 2DH approach. The results of bathymetry evolution are in agreement with the patterns found in the literature for several existing structures. The model was also tested in a 3-D test case to simulate the formation of sandbars by undertow currents. The findings of this work confirmed the applicability of the MOHID modelling system to study sediment transport and morphological changes in coastal zones under the combined action of waves and currents. The same modelling methodology was applied to a coastal zone (Costa da Caparica) located at the mouth of a mesotidal estuary (Tagus Estuary, Portugal) to evaluate the hydrodynamics and sediment transport both in calm water conditions and during events of highly energetic waves. The MOHID code is available in the GitHub repository.
Gustafson, Eric J; De Bruijn, Arjan M G; Pangle, Robert E; Limousin, Jean-Marc; McDowell, Nate G; Pockman, William T; Sturtevant, Brian R; Muss, Jordan D; Kubiske, Mark E
2015-02-01
Fundamental drivers of ecosystem processes such as temperature and precipitation are rapidly changing and creating novel environmental conditions. Forest landscape models (FLM) are used by managers and policy-makers to make projections of future ecosystem dynamics under alternative management or policy options, but the links between the fundamental drivers and projected responses are weak and indirect, limiting their reliability for projecting the impacts of climate change. We developed and tested a relatively mechanistic method to simulate the effects of changing precipitation on species competition within the LANDIS-II FLM. Using data from a field precipitation manipulation experiment in a piñon pine (Pinus edulis) and juniper (Juniperus monosperma) ecosystem in New Mexico (USA), we calibrated our model to measurements from ambient control plots and tested predictions under the drought and irrigation treatments against empirical measurements. The model successfully predicted behavior of physiological variables under the treatments. Discrepancies between model output and empirical data occurred when the monthly time step of the model failed to capture the short-term dynamics of the ecosystem as recorded by instantaneous field measurements. We applied the model to heuristically assess the effect of alternative climate scenarios on the piñon-juniper ecosystem and found that warmer and drier climate reduced productivity and increased the risk of drought-induced mortality, especially for piñon. We concluded that the direct links between fundamental drivers and growth rates in our model hold great promise to improve our understanding of ecosystem processes under climate change and improve management decisions because of its greater reliance on first principles. Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mohammad Iranmanesh
2014-12-01
Full Text Available Many standard brands sell products under the volume discount scheme (VDS as more and more consumers are fond of purchasing products under this scheme. Despite volume discount being commonly practiced, there is a dearth of research, both conceptual and empirical, focusing on purchase characteristics factors and consumer internal evaluation concerning the purchase of products under VDS. To attempt to fill this void, this article develops a conceptual model on VDS with the intention of delineating the influence of the purchase characteristics factors on the consumer intention to purchase products under VDS and provides an explanation of their effects through consumer internal evaluation. Finally, the authors discuss the managerial implications of their research and offer guidelines for future empirical research.
A simple heat transfer model for a heat flux plate under transient conditions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ryan, L.; Dale, J.D.
1985-01-01
Heat flux plates are used for measuring rates of heat transfer through surfaces under steady state and transient conditions. Their usual construction is to have a resistive layer bounded by thermopiles and an exterior layer for protection. If properly designed and constructed a linear relationship between the thermopile generated voltage and heat flux results and calibration under steady state conditions is straight forward. Under transient conditions however the voltage output from a heat flux plate cannot instantaneously follow the heat flux because of the thermal capacitance of the plate and the resulting time lag. In order to properly interpret the output of a heat flux plate used under transient conditions a simple heat transfer model was constructed and tested. (author)
Structural reliability analysis under evidence theory using the active learning kriging model
Yang, Xufeng; Liu, Yongshou; Ma, Panke
2017-11-01
Structural reliability analysis under evidence theory is investigated. It is rigorously proved that a surrogate model providing only correct sign prediction of the performance function can meet the accuracy requirement of evidence-theory-based reliability analysis. Accordingly, a method based on the active learning kriging model which only correctly predicts the sign of the performance function is proposed. Interval Monte Carlo simulation and a modified optimization method based on Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions are introduced to make the method more efficient in estimating the bounds of failure probability based on the kriging model. Four examples are investigated to demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed method.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bakanauskienė Irena
2017-12-01
Full Text Available This article is intended to theoretically justify the decision-making process model for the cases, when active participation of investing entities in controlling the activities of an organisation and their results is noticeable. Based on scientific literature analysis, a concept of controlled conditions is formulated, and using a rational approach to the decision-making process, a model of the 11-steps decision-making process under controlled intervention is presented. Also, there have been unified conditions, describing the case of controlled interventions thus providing preconditions to ensure the adequacy of the proposed decision-making process model.
Physical scale modeling of single free head piles under lateral loading in cohesive soils
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Edgar Leonardo Salamanca-Medina
2017-06-01
Full Text Available This paper presents the results of the small scale modeling of free head wood piles under horizontal loading in cohesive soils, tested in order to compare the results with analytical models proposed by various authors. Characteristic Load (CLM and P-Y Curves methods were used for the prediction of lateral deflections at the head of the piles and the method proposed by Broms for estimating the ultimate lateral load. These predictions were compared with the results of the physical modeling, obtaining a good approximation between them.
Maslovskaya, A. G.; Barabash, T. K.
2018-03-01
The paper presents the results of the fractal and multifractal analysis of polarization switching current in ferroelectrics under electron irradiation, which allows statistical memory effects to be estimated at dynamics of domain structure. The mathematical model of formation of electron beam-induced polarization current in ferroelectrics was suggested taking into account the fractal nature of domain structure dynamics. In order to realize the model the computational scheme was constructed using the numerical solution approximation of fractional differential equation. Evidences of electron beam-induced polarization switching process in ferroelectrics were specified at a variation of control model parameters.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sim, J.; Soroushian, P.
1989-01-01
An improved model for predicting the reinforced concrete element behavior under dynamic strain rates was developed using the layer modeling technique. The developed strain rate sensitive model for axial/flexural analysis of reinforced concrete elements was used to predict the test results, performed at different loading rates, and the predictions were reasonable. The developed analysis technique was used to study the loading rate sensitivity of reinforced concrete beams and columns with different geometry and material properties. Two design formulas for computing the loading rate dependent axial and flexural strengths of reinforced concrete sections are suggested
Zhang, Jingyi
Ferroelectric (FE) and closely related antiferroelectric (AFE) materials have unique electromechanical properties that promote various applications in the area of capacitors, sensors, generators (FE) and high density energy storage (AFE). These smart materials with extensive applications have drawn wide interest in the industrial and scientific world because of their reliability and tunable property. However, reliability issues changes its paradigms and requires guidance from detailed mechanism theory as the materials applications are pushed for better performance. A host of modeling work were dedicated to study the macro-structural behavior and microstructural evolution in FE and AFE material under various conditions. This thesis is focused on direct observation of domain evolution under multiphysics loading for both FE and AFE material. Landau-Devonshire time-dependent phase field models were built for both materials, and were simulated in finite element software Comsol. In FE model, dagger-shape 90 degree switched domain was observed at preexisting crack tip under pure mechanical loading. Polycrystal structure was tested under same condition, and blocking effect of the growth of dagger-shape switched domain from grain orientation difference and/or grain boundary was directly observed. AFE ceramic model was developed using two sublattice theory, this model was used to investigate the mechanism of energy efficiency increase with self-confined loading in experimental tests. Consistent results was found in simulation and careful investigation of calculation results gave confirmation that origin of energy density increase is from three aspects: self-confinement induced inner compression field as the cause of increase of critical field, fringe leak as the source of elevated saturation polarization and uneven defects distribution as the reason for critical field shifting and phase transition speed. Another important affecting aspect in polycrystalline materials is the
Lim, J. T.; Wilkerson, G. G.; Raper, C. D. Jr; Gold, H. J.
1990-01-01
A differential equation model of vegetative growth of the soya bean plant (Glycine max (L.) Merrill cv. Ransom') was developed to account for plant growth in a phytotron system under variation of root temperature and nitrogen concentration in nutrient solution. The model was tested by comparing model outputs with data from four different experiments. Model predictions agreed fairly well with measured plant performance over a wide range of root temperatures and over a range of nitrogen concentrations in nutrient solution between 0.5 and 10.0 mmol NO3- in the phytotron environment. Sensitivity analyses revealed that the model was most sensitive to changes in parameters relating to carbohydrate concentration in the plant and nitrogen uptake rate.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yonggang Ma
2013-01-01
Full Text Available An integrated modeling system has been developed for analyzing the impact of climate change on snowmelt runoff in Kaidu Watershed, Northwest China. The system couples Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 (HadCM3 outputs with Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM. The SRM was verified against observed discharge for outlet hydrological station of the watershed during the period from April to September in 2001 and generally performed well for Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (EF and water balance coefficient (RE. The EF is approximately over 0.8, and the water balance error is lower than ± 10%, indicating reasonable prediction accuracy. The Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM was used to downscale coarse outputs of HadCM3, and then the downscaled future climate data were used as inputs of the SRM. Four scenarios were considered for analyzing the climate change impact on snowmelt flow in the Kaidu Watershed. And the results indicated that watershed hydrology would alter under different climate change scenarios. The stream flow in spring is likely to increase with the increased mean temperature; the discharge and peck flow in summer decrease with the decreased precipitation under Scenarios 1 and 2. Moreover, the consideration of the change in cryosphere area would intensify the variability of stream flow under Scenarios 3 and 4. The modeling results provide useful decision support for water resources management.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Philip James Smethurst
2015-04-01
Full Text Available The Soil Nitrogen Availability Predictor (SNAP model predicts daily and annual rates of net N mineralization (NNM based on daily weather measurements, daily predictions of soil water and soil temperature, and on temperature and moisture modifiers obtained during aerobic incubation (basal rate. The model was based on in situ measurements of NNM in Australian soils under temperate climate. The purpose of this study was to assess this model for use in tropical soils under eucalyptus plantations in São Paulo State, Brazil. Based on field incubations for one month in three, NNM rates were measured at 11 sites (0-20 cm layer for 21 months. The basal rate was determined in in situ incubations during moist and warm periods (January to March. Annual rates of 150-350 kg ha-1 yr-1 NNM predicted by the SNAP model were reasonably accurate (R2 = 0.84. In other periods, at lower moisture and temperature, NNM rates were overestimated. Therefore, if used carefully, the model can provide adequate predictions of annual NNM and may be useful in practical applications. For NNM predictions for shorter periods than a year or under suboptimal incubation conditions, the temperature and moisture modifiers need to be recalibrated for tropical conditions.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kim, Kyoungjin; Kwak, Ho Sang [School of Mechanical Engineering, Kumoh National Institute of Technology, 1 Yangho, Gumi, Gyeongbuk 730-701 (Korea, Republic of); Song, Tae-Ho, E-mail: kimkj@kumoh.ac.kr, E-mail: hskwak@kumoh.ac.kr, E-mail: thsong@kaist.ac.kr [Department of Mechanical, Aerospace and Systems Engineering, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, 373-1 Guseong, Yuseong, Daejeon 305-701 (Korea, Republic of)
2011-08-15
This paper describes a numerical model for simulating electroosmotic flows (EOFs) under non-Boltzmann equilibrium in a micro- and nanochannel. The transport of ionic species is represented by employing the Nernst-Planck equation. Modeling issues related to numerical difficulties are discussed, which include the handling of boundary conditions based on surface charge density, the associated treatment of electric potential and the evasion of nonlinearity due to the electric body force. The EOF in the entrance region of a straight channel is examined. The numerical results show that the present model is useful for the prediction of the EOFs requiring a fine resolution of the electric double layer under either the Boltzmann equilibrium or non-equilibrium. Based on the numerical results, the correlation between the surface charge density and the zeta potential is investigated.
Xu, Tengfei; Castel, Arnaud
2016-04-01
In this paper, a model, initially developed to calculate the stiffness of cracked reinforced concrete beams under static loading, is used to assess the dynamic stiffness. The model allows calculating the average inertia of cracked beams by taking into account the effect of bending cracks (primary cracks) and steel-concrete bond damage (i.e. interfacial microcracks). Free and forced vibration experiments are used to assess the performance of the model. The respective influence of bending cracks and steel-concrete bond damage on both static and dynamic responses is analyzed. The comparison between experimental and simulated deflections confirms that the effects of both bending cracks and steel-concrete bond loss should be taken into account to assess reinforced concrete stiffness under service static loading. On the contrary, comparison of experimental and calculated dynamic responses reveals that localized steel-concrete bond damages do not influence significantly the dynamic stiffness and the fundamental frequency.
Research on Dynamic Dissolving Model and Experiment for Rock Salt under Different Flow Conditions
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xinrong Liu
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Utilizing deep rock salt cavern is not only a widely recognized energy reserve method but also a key development direction for implementing the energy strategic reserve plan. And rock salt cavern adopts solution mining techniques to realize building cavity. In view of this, the paper, based on the dissolving properties of rock salt, being simplified and hypothesized the dynamic dissolving process of rock salt, combined conditions between dissolution effect and seepage effect in establishing dynamic dissolving models of rock salt under different flow quantities. Devices were also designed to test the dynamic dissolving process for rock salt samples under different flow quantities and then utilized the finite-difference method to find the numerical solution of the dynamic dissolving model. The artificial intelligence algorithm, Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm (PSO, was finally introduced to conduct inverse analysis of parameters on the established model, whose calculation results coincide with the experimental data.
A Petri net-based modelling of replacement strategies under technological obsolescence
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Clavareau, Julien [Universite Libre de Bruxelles (U.L.B.), Service de Metrologie Nucleaire, Av. F.D. Roosevelt, 50 (CP165/84), Bruxelles B-1050 (Belgium)], E-mail: jclavare@ulb.ac.be; Labeau, Pierre-Etienne [Universite Libre de Bruxelles (U.L.B.), Service de Metrologie Nucleaire, Av. F.D. Roosevelt, 50 (CP165/84), Bruxelles B-1050 (Belgium)
2009-02-15
The technological obsolescence of a unit is characterised by the existence of challenger units displaying identical functionalities, but with higher performances. Though this issue is commonly encountered in practice, it has received little consideration in the literature. Previous exploratory works have treated the problem of replacing old-technology items by new ones, for identical components facing a unique new generation of items. This paper aims to define, in a realistic way, possible replacement policies when several types of challenger units are available and when the performances of these newly available units improve with time. Since no fully generic model can exist in maintenance optimisation, a modular modelling of the problem, allowing easy adaptations to features corresponding to specific applications is highly desirable. This work therefore proposes a modular Petri net model for this problem, underlying a Monte Carlo (MC) estimation of the costs incurred by the different possible replacement strategies under consideration.
Kulkarni, Chetan S.; Celaya, Jose R.; Goebel, Kai; Biswas, Gautam
2012-01-01
Electrolytic capacitors are used in several applications ranging from power supplies on safety critical avionics equipment to power drivers for electro-mechanical actuators. This makes them good candidates for prognostics and health management research. Prognostics provides a way to assess remaining useful life of components or systems based on their current state of health and their anticipated future use and operational conditions. Past experiences show that capacitors tend to degrade and fail faster under high electrical and thermal stress conditions that they are often subjected to during operations. In this work, we study the effects of accelerated aging due to thermal stress on different sets of capacitors under different conditions. Our focus is on deriving first principles degradation models for thermal stress conditions. Data collected from simultaneous experiments are used to validate the desired models. Our overall goal is to derive accurate models of capacitor degradation, and use them to predict performance changes in DC-DC converters.
Finite element modelling of aluminum alloy 2024-T3 under transverse impact loading
Abdullah, Ahmad Sufian; Kuntjoro, Wahyu; Yamin, A. F. M.
2017-12-01
Fiber metal laminate named GLARE is a new aerospace material which has great potential to be widely used in future lightweight aircraft. It consists of aluminum alloy 2024-T3 and glass-fiber reinforced laminate. In order to produce reliable finite element model of impact response or crashworthiness of structure made of GLARE, one can initially model and validate the finite element model of the impact response of its constituents separately. The objective of this study was to develop a reliable finite element model of aluminum alloy 2024-T3 under low velocity transverse impact loading using commercial software ABAQUS. Johnson-Cook plasticity and damage models were used to predict the alloy's material properties and impact behavior. The results of the finite element analysis were compared to the experiment that has similar material and impact conditions. Results showed good correlations in terms of impact forces, deformation and failure progressions which concluded that the finite element model of 2024-T3 aluminum alloy under low velocity transverse impact condition using Johnson-Cook plastic and damage models was reliable.
Comparison of Color Model in Cotton Image Under Conditions of Natural Light
Zhang, J. H.; Kong, F. T.; Wu, J. Z.; Wang, S. W.; Liu, J. J.; Zhao, P.
Although the color images contain a large amount of information reflecting the species characteristics, different color models also get different information. The selection of color models is the key to separating crops from background effectively and rapidly. Taking the cotton images collected under natural light as the object, we convert the color components of RGB color model, HSL color model and YIQ color model respectively. Then, we use subjective evaluation and objective evaluation methods, evaluating the 9 color components of conversion. It is concluded that the Q component of the soil, straw and plastic film region gray values remain the same without larger fluctuation when using subjective evaluation method. In the objective evaluation, we use the variance method, average gradient method, gray prediction objective evaluation error statistics method and information entropy method respectively to find the minimum numerical of Q color component suitable for background segmentation.
Evaluation of Reinforced Concrete Structural Members under Uniform Loads Using Truss Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Houshang Dabbagh
2016-03-01
Full Text Available Truss model is an analytical approach to predict the strength of reinforced concrete members with geometric or statical discontinuous regions. This study investigates the use of truss model to predict the structural behavior of reinforced concrete members with discontinuity areas under monotonic loading. The estimated failure load and its corresponding deformation are the main objective of this research. Twenty and three samples including short shear walls, short columns and deep beams tested by other researchers throughout the literature have been selected. Then their truss models as well as their three dimensional finite element models are analyzed using ABAQUS software. The comparison of experimental and analytical results shows fair correlation between them. Also, the structural response of samples estimated by truss model analysis is fairly acceptable.
Water loss in table grapes: model development and validation under dynamic storage conditions
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ericsem PEREIRA
2017-09-01
Full Text Available Abstract Water loss is a critical problem affecting the quality of table grapes. Temperature and relative humidity (RH are essential in this process. Although mathematical modelling can be applied to measure constant temperature and RH impacts, it is proved that variations in storage conditions are normally encountered in the cold chain. This study proposed a methodology to develop a weight loss model for table grapes and validate its predictions in non-constant conditions of a domestic refrigerator. Grapes were maintained under controlled conditions and the weight loss was measured to calibrate the model. The model described the water loss process adequately and the validation tests confirmed its predictive ability. Delayed cooling tests showed that estimated transpiration rates in subsequent continuous temperature treatment was not significantly influenced by prior exposure conditions, suggesting that this model may be useful to estimate the weight loss consequences of interruptions in the cold chain.
Groundwater flow modelling under ice sheet conditions in Greenland (phase II)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jaquet, Olivier; Namar, Rabah; Siegel, Pascal; Jansson, Peter
2012-11-01
Within the framework of the GAP project, this second phase of geosphere modelling has enabled the development of an improved regional model that has led to a better representation of groundwater flow conditions likely to occur under ice sheet conditions. New data in relation to talik geometry and elevation, as well as to deformation zones were integrated in the geosphere model. In addition, more realistic hydraulic properties were considered for geosphere modelling; they were taken from the Laxemar site in Sweden. The geological medium with conductive deformation zones was modelled as a 3D continuum with stochastically hydraulic properties. Surface and basal glacial meltwater rates provided by a dynamic ice sheet model were assimilated into the groundwater flow model using mixed boundary conditions. The groundwater flow system is considered to be governed by infiltration of glacial meltwater in heterogeneous faulted crystalline rocks in the presence of permafrost and taliks. The characterisation of the permafrost-depth distribution was achieved using a coupled description of flow and heat transfer under steady state conditions. Using glaciological concepts and satellite data, an improved stochastic model was developed for the description at regional scale for the subglacial permafrost distribution in correlation with ice velocity and bed elevation data. Finally, the production of glacial meltwater by the ice sheet was traced for the determination of its depth and lateral extent. The major improvements are related to the type and handling of the subglacial boundary conditions. The use of meltwater rates provided by an ice sheet model applied as input to a mixed boundary condition enables to produce a more plausible flow field in the Eastern part of the domain, in comparison to previous modelling results (Jaquet et al. 2010). In addition, the integration of all potential taliks within the modelled domain provides a better characterisation of the likely groundwater
Groundwater flow modelling under ice sheet conditions in Greenland (phase II)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Jaquet, Olivier; Namar, Rabah; Siegel, Pascal [In2Earth Modelling Ltd, Lausanne (Switzerland); Jansson, Peter [Dept. of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm Univ., Stockholm (Sweden)
2012-11-15
Within the framework of the GAP project, this second phase of geosphere modelling has enabled the development of an improved regional model that has led to a better representation of groundwater flow conditions likely to occur under ice sheet conditions. New data in relation to talik geometry and elevation, as well as to deformation zones were integrated in the geosphere model. In addition, more realistic hydraulic properties were considered for geosphere modelling; they were taken from the Laxemar site in Sweden. The geological medium with conductive deformation zones was modelled as a 3D continuum with stochastically hydraulic properties. Surface and basal glacial meltwater rates provided by a dynamic ice sheet model were assimilated into the groundwater flow model using mixed boundary conditions. The groundwater flow system is considered to be governed by infiltration of glacial meltwater in heterogeneous faulted crystalline rocks in the presence of permafrost and taliks. The characterisation of the permafrost-depth distribution was achieved using a coupled description of flow and heat transfer under steady state conditions. Using glaciological concepts and satellite data, an improved stochastic model was developed for the description at regional scale for the subglacial permafrost distribution in correlation with ice velocity and bed elevation data. Finally, the production of glacial meltwater by the ice sheet was traced for the determination of its depth and lateral extent. The major improvements are related to the type and handling of the subglacial boundary conditions. The use of meltwater rates provided by an ice sheet model applied as input to a mixed boundary condition enables to produce a more plausible flow field in the Eastern part of the domain, in comparison to previous modelling results (Jaquet et al. 2010). In addition, the integration of all potential taliks within the modelled domain provides a better characterisation of the likely groundwater
Michou, Aikaterini; Vansteenkiste, Maarten; Mouratidis, Athanasios; Lens, Willy
2014-12-01
The hierarchical model of achievement motivation presumes that achievement goals channel the achievement motives of need for achievement and fear of failure towards motivational outcomes. Yet, less is known whether autonomous and controlling reasons underlying the pursuit of achievement goals can serve as additional pathways between achievement motives and outcomes. We tested whether mastery approach, performance approach, and performance avoidance goals and their underlying autonomous and controlling reasons would jointly explain the relation between achievement motives (i.e., fear of failure and need for achievement) and learning strategies (Study 1). Additionally, we examined whether the autonomous and controlling reasons underlying learners' dominant achievement goal would account for the link between achievement motives and the educational outcomes of learning strategies and cheating (Study 2). Six hundred and six Greek adolescent students (Mage = 15.05, SD = 1.43) and 435 university students (Mage M = 20.51, SD = 2.80) participated in studies 1 and 2, respectively. In both studies, a correlational design was used and the hypotheses were tested via path modelling. Autonomous and controlling reasons underlying the pursuit of achievement goals mediated, respectively, the relation of need for achievement and fear of failure to aspects of learning outcomes. Autonomous and controlling reasons underlying achievement goals could further explain learners' functioning in achievement settings. © 2014 The British Psychological Society.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dreimann, Karsten; Linz, Stefan J.
2010-01-01
Graphical abstract: Deterministic surface pattern (left) and its stochastic counterpart (right) arising in a stochastic damped Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation that serves as a model equation for ion-beam eroded surfaces and is systematically investigated. - Abstract: Using a recently proposed field equation for the surface evolution of ion-beam eroded semiconductor target materials under normal incidence, we systematically explore the impact of additive stochastic fluctuations that are permanently present during the erosion process. Specifically, we investigate the dependence of the surface roughness, the underlying pattern forming properties and the bifurcation behavior on the strength of the fluctuations.
CoaSim: A Flexible Environment for Simulating Genetic Data under Coalescent Models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Mailund; Schierup, Mikkel Heide; Pedersen, Christian Nørgaard Storm
2005-01-01
get insight into these. Results We have created the CoaSim application as a flexible environment for Monte various types of genetic data under equilibrium and non-equilibrium coalescent variety of applications. Interaction with the tool is through the Guile version scripting language. Scheme scripts......Background Coalescent simulations are playing a large role in interpreting large scale intra- polymorphism surveys and for planning and evaluating association studies. Coalescent of data sets under different models can be compared to the actual data to test different evolutionary factors and thus...
A Three-Stage Supply Chain Investment Model under Asymmetric Information
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Agrell, Per J.; Bogetoft, Peter
for the economic performance of three scenarios under asymmetric information on investment cost: direct contracting with an integrated CM-supplier, decentralized contracting to tier-1 suppliers and centralized contracting to tier-1 and tier-2 suppliers. The results show that the observed practice to delegate...... investments to tier-1 and possibly tier-2 suppliers leads to relatively poor performance due to under-investments. The superior arrangement is the centralized conditional model, where the OEM forces coordination among upstream suppliers by offering conditional financing. We close the paper with an analogy...
Development of a butterfly check valve model under natural circulation conditions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rao, Yuxian; Yu, Lei; Fu, Shengwei; Zhang, Fan
2015-01-01
Highlights: • Bases on Lim’s swing check valve model, a butterfly check valve model was developed. • The method to quantify the friction torque T F in Li’s model was corrected. • The developed model was implemented into the RELAP5 code and verified. - Abstract: A butterfly check valve is widely used to prevent a reverse flow in the pipe lines of a marine nuclear power plant. Under some conditions, the natural circulation conditions in particular, the fluid velocity through the butterfly check valve might become too low to hold the valve disk fully open, thereby the flow resistance of the butterfly check valve varies with the location of the valve disk and as a result the fluid flow is significantly affected by the dynamic motion of the valve disk. Simulation of a pipe line that includes some butterfly check valves, especially under natural circulation conditions, is thus complicated. This paper focuses on the development of a butterfly check valve model to enhance the capability of the thermal–hydraulic system code and the developed model is implemented into the RELAP5 code. Both steady-state calculations and transient calculations were carried out for the primary loop system of a marine nuclear power plant and the calculation results are compared with the experimental data for verification purpose. The simulation results show an agreement with the experimental data
Modelling the drying kinetics of green peas in a solar dryer and under open sun
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Sunil [Department of Mechanical Engineering, BRCM CET Bahal, Haryana–127028 (India); Varun [Department of Mechanical Engineering, NIT Hamirpur, (H.P.)–177005 (India); Sharma, Naveen [Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, IITR, (U.K.)–247667 (India)
2013-07-01
The drying kinetics of green peas was investigated in an indirect solar dryer and under open sun. The entire drying process took place exclusively in falling rate period. The constant rate period was absent from the drying curves. The rehydration capacity was also determined for peas dried in solar dryer and under open sun. The rehydration capacity of solar dried peas was found higher than open sun dried peas. The drying data obtained from experiments were fitted to eight different mathematical models. The performance of these models was examined by comparing the coefficient of correlation (R2), sum of squares error (SSE), mean squared error (MSE) and root mean square error (RMSE) between observed and predicted values of moisture ratios. Among these models, the thin layer drying model developed by Page showed good agreement with the data obtained from experiments for bottom tray. The Midilli et al. model has shown better fit to the experimental data for top tray and open sun than other models.
Parameters of Models of Structural Transformations in Alloy Steel Under Welding Thermal Cycle
Kurkin, A. S.; Makarov, E. L.; Kurkin, A. B.; Rubtsov, D. E.; Rubtsov, M. E.
2017-05-01
A mathematical model of structural transformations in an alloy steel under the thermal cycle of multipass welding is suggested for computer implementation. The minimum necessary set of parameters for describing the transformations under heating and cooling is determined. Ferritic-pearlitic, bainitic and martensitic transformations under cooling of a steel are considered. A method for deriving the necessary temperature and time parameters of the model from the chemical composition of the steel is described. Published data are used to derive regression models of the temperature ranges and parameters of transformation kinetics in alloy steels. It is shown that the disadvantages of the active visual methods of analysis of the final phase composition of steels are responsible for inaccuracy and mismatch of published data. The hardness of a specimen, which correlates with some other mechanical properties of the material, is chosen as the most objective and reproducible criterion of the final phase composition. The models developed are checked by a comparative analysis of computational results and experimental data on the hardness of 140 alloy steels after cooling at various rates.
Li, Kewei; Ogden, Ray W; Holzapfel, Gerhard A
2018-01-01
Recently, micro-sphere-based methods derived from the angular integration approach have been used for excluding fibres under compression in the modelling of soft biological tissues. However, recent studies have revealed that many of the widely used numerical integration schemes over the unit sphere are inaccurate for large deformation problems even without excluding fibres under compression. Thus, in this study, we propose a discrete fibre dispersion model based on a systematic method for discretizing a unit hemisphere into a finite number of elementary areas, such as spherical triangles. Over each elementary area, we define a representative fibre direction and a discrete fibre density. Then, the strain energy of all the fibres distributed over each elementary area is approximated based on the deformation of the representative fibre direction weighted by the corresponding discrete fibre density. A summation of fibre contributions over all elementary areas then yields the resultant fibre strain energy. This treatment allows us to exclude fibres under compression in a discrete manner by evaluating the tension-compression status of the representative fibre directions only. We have implemented this model in a finite-element programme and illustrate it with three representative examples, including simple tension and simple shear of a unit cube, and non-homogeneous uniaxial extension of a rectangular strip. The results of all three examples are consistent and accurate compared with the previously developed continuous fibre dispersion model, and that is achieved with a substantial reduction of computational cost. © 2018 The Author(s).
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hu, S.; Cucinotta, F. A.
2011-01-01
As significant ionising radiation exposure will occur during prolonged space travel in future, it is essential to understand their adverse effects on the radiosensitive organ systems that are important for immediate survival of humans, e.g. the haematopoietic system. In this paper, a bio-mathematical model of granulopoiesis is used to analyse the granulocyte changes seen in the blood of mammalians under acute and continuous radiation exposure. This is one of a set of haematopoietic models that have been successfully utilised to simulate and interpret the experimental data of acute and chronic radiation on rodents. Extension to canine and human systems indicates that the results of the model are consistent with the cumulative experimental and empirical data from various sources, implying the potential to integrate them into one united model system to monitor the haematopoietic response of various species under irradiation. The suppression of granulocytes' level of a space traveller under chronic stress of low-dose irradiation as well as the granulopoietic response when encountering a historically large solar particle event is also discussed. (authors)
Two retailer-supplier supply chain models with default risk under trade credit policy.
Wu, Chengfeng; Zhao, Qiuhong
2016-01-01
The purpose of the paper is to formulate two uncooperative replenishment models with demand and default risk which are the functions of the trade credit period, i.e., a Nash equilibrium model and a supplier-Stackelberg model. Firstly, we present the optimal results of decentralized decision and centralized decision without trade credit. Secondly, we derive the existence and uniqueness conditions of the optimal solutions under the two games, respectively. Moreover, we present a set of theorems and corollary to determine the optimal solutions. Finally, we provide an example and sensitivity analysis to illustrate the proposed strategy and optimal solutions. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the total profits of supply chain under the two games both are better than the results under the centralized decision only if the optimal trade credit period isn't too short. It also reveals that the size of trade credit period, demand, retailer's profit and supplier's profit have strong relationship with the increasing demand coefficient, wholesale price, default risk coefficient and production cost. The major contribution of the paper is that we comprehensively compare between the results of decentralized decision and centralized decision without trade credit, Nash equilibrium and supplier-Stackelberg models with trade credit, and obtain some interesting managerial insights and practical implications.
Evaluation of the AquaCrop Model to Simulate Maize Yiled Response under Salinity Stress
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Aida Mehrazar
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Introduction: Limited water resources and its salinity uptrend has caused reducing water and soil quality and consequently reducing the crop production. Thus, use of saline water is the management strategies to decrease drought and water crisis. Furthermore, simulation models are valuable tools for improving on-farm water management and study about the effects of water quality and quantity on crop yield.. The AquaCrop model has recently been developed by the FAO which has the ability to check the production process under different propositions. The initial version of the model was introduced for simulation of crop yield and soil water movement in 2007, that the effect of salinity on crop yield was not considered. Version 4 of the model was released in 2012 in which also considered the effects of salinity on crop yield and simulation of solute Transmission in soil profile. Material and methods: In this project, evaluation of the AquaCrop model and its accuracy was studied in the simulating yield of maize under salt stress. This experiment was conducted in Karaj, on maize hybrid (Zea ma ys L in a sandy soil for investigation of salinity stress on maize yield in 2011-2012. This experiment was conducted in form of randomized complete block design in four replications and five levels of salinity treatments including 0, 4.53, 9.06, 13.59 and 18.13 dS/m at the two times sampling. To evaluate the effect of different levels of salinity on the yield of maize was used Version 4 AquaCrop model and SAS ver 9.1 software .The model calibration was performed by comparing the results of the field studies and the results of simulations in the model. In calculating the yield under different scenarios of salt stress by using AquaCrop, the model needs climate data, soil data, vegetation data and information related to farm management. The effects of salinity on yield and some agronomic and physiological traits of hybrid maize (Shoot length, root length, dry weight
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Qiang WEI
2017-08-01
Full Text Available To predict the effect of the liquid rocket engine combustion chamber conditions on the impingement spray, the conventional uncoupled spray model for impinging injectors is extended by considering the coupling of the jet impingement process and the ambient gas field. The new coupled model consists of the plain-orifice sub-model, the jet-jet impingement sub-model and the droplet collision sub-model. The parameters of the child droplet are determined with the jet-jet impingement sub-model using correlations about the liquid jet parameters and the chamber conditions. The overall model is benchmarked under various impingement angles, jet momentum and off-center ratios. Agreement with the published experimental data validates the ability of the model to predict the key spray characteristics, such as the mass flux and mixture ratio distributions in quiescent air. Besides, impinging sprays under changing ambient pressure and non-uniform gas flow are investigated to explore the effect of liquid rocket engine chamber conditions. First, a transient impingement spray during engine start-up phase is simulated with prescribed pressure profile. The minimum average droplet diameter is achieved when the orifices work in cavitation state, and is about 30% smaller than the steady single phase state. Second, the effect of non-uniform gas flow produces off-center impingement and the rotated spray fan by 38°. The proposed model suggests more reasonable impingement spray characteristics than the uncoupled one and can be used as the first step in the complex simulation of coupling impingement spray and combustion in liquid rocket engines.
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
Qiang WEI; Guozhu LIANG
2017-01-01
To predict the effect of the liquid rocket engine combustion chamber conditions on the impingement spray,the conventional uncoupled spray model for impinging injectors is extended by considering the couplingof the jet impingement process and the ambient gas field.The new coupled model consists of the plain-orifice sub-model,the jet-jet impingement sub-model and the droplet collision sub-model.The parameters of the child droplet are determined with the jet-jet impingement sub-model using correlations about the liquid jet parameters and the chamber conditions.The overall model is benchmarked under various impingement angles,jet momentum and offcenter ratios.Agreement with the published experimental data validates the ability of the model to predict the key spray characteristics,such as the mass flux and mixture ratio distributions in quiescent air.Besides,impinging sprays under changing ambient pressure and non-uniform gas flow are investigated to explore the effect of liquid rocket engine chamber conditions.First,a transient impingement spray during engine start-up phase is simulated with prescribed pressure profile.The minimum average droplet diameter is achieved when the orifices work in cavitation state,and is about 30％ smaller than the steady single phase state.Second,the effect of non-uniform gas flow produces off-center impingement and the rotated spray fan by 38°.The proposed model suggests more reasonable impingement spray characteristics than the uncoupled one and can be used as the first step in the complex simulation of coupling impingement spray and combustion in liquid rocket engines.
Modeling Bacteria-Water Interactions in Soil: EPS Dynamics Under Evaporative Conditions
Furrer, J.; Hinestroza, H. F.; Guo, Y. S.; Gage, D. J.; Cho, Y. K.; Shor, L. M.
2017-12-01
The soil habitat represents a major linkage between the water and carbon cycles: the ability of soils to sequester or release carbon is determined primarily by soil moisture. Water retention and distribution in soils controls the abundance and activity of soil microbes. Microbes in turn impact water retention by creating biofilms, composed of extracellular polymeric substances (EPS). We model the effects of bacterial EPS on water retention at the pore scale. We use the lattice Boltzmann method (LBM), a well-established fluid dynamics modeling platform, and modify it to include the effects of water uptake and release by the swelling/shrinking EPS phase. The LB model is implemented in 2-D, with a non-ideal gas equation of state that allows condensation and evaporation of fluid in pore spaces. Soil particles are modeled according to experimentally determined particle size distributions and include realistic pore geometries, in contrast to many soil models which use spherical soil particles for simplicity. Model results are compared with evaporation experiments in soil micromodels and other simpler experimental systems, and model parameters are tuned to match experimental results. Drying behavior and solid-gel contact angle of EPS produced by the soil bacteria Sinorhizobium meliloti has been characterized and compared to the behavior of deionized water under the same conditions. The difference in behavior between the fluids is used to parameterize the model. The model shows excellent qualitative agreement for soil micromodels with both aggregated and non-aggregated particle arrangements under no-EPS conditions, and reproduces realistic drying behavior for EPS. This work represents a multi-disciplinary approach to understanding microbe-soil interactions at the pore scale.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zhe Zhang
2014-06-01
Full Text Available Purpose: The aim of this paper is to deal with the supply chain management (SCM with quantity discount policy under the complex fuzzy environment, which is characterized as the bi-fuzzy variables. By taking into account the strategy and the process of decision making, a bi-fuzzy nonlinear multiple objective decision making (MODM model is presented to solve the proposed problem.Design/methodology/approach: The bi-fuzzy variables in the MODM model are transformed into the trapezoidal fuzzy variables by the DMs's degree of optimism ?1 and ?2, which are de-fuzzified by the expected value index subsequently. For solving the complex nonlinear model, a multi-objective adaptive particle swarm optimization algorithm (MO-APSO is designed as the solution method.Findings: The proposed model and algorithm are applied to a typical example of SCM problem to illustrate the effectiveness. Based on the sensitivity analysis of the results, the bi-fuzzy nonlinear MODM SCM model is proved to be sensitive to the possibility level ?1.Practical implications: The study focuses on the SCM under complex fuzzy environment in SCM, which has a great practical significance. Therefore, the bi-fuzzy MODM model and MO-APSO can be further applied in SCM problem with quantity discount policy.Originality/value: The bi-fuzzy variable is employed in the nonlinear MODM model of SCM to characterize the hybrid uncertain environment, and this work is original. In addition, the hybrid crisp approach is proposed to transferred to model to an equivalent crisp one by the DMs's degree of optimism and the expected value index. Since the MODM model consider the bi-fuzzy environment and quantity discount policy, so this paper has a great practical significance.
An empirical model of diagnostic x-ray attenuation under narrow-beam geometry
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mathieu, Kelsey B.; Kappadath, S. Cheenu; White, R. Allen; Atkinson, E. Neely; Cody, Dianna D.
2011-01-01
Purpose: The purpose of this study was to develop and validate a mathematical model to describe narrow-beam attenuation of kilovoltage x-ray beams for the intended applications of half-value layer (HVL) and quarter-value layer (QVL) estimations, patient organ shielding, and computer modeling. Methods: An empirical model, which uses the Lambert W function and represents a generalized Lambert-Beer law, was developed. To validate this model, transmission of diagnostic energy x-ray beams was measured over a wide range of attenuator thicknesses [0.49-33.03 mm Al on a computed tomography (CT) scanner, 0.09-1.93 mm Al on two mammography systems, and 0.1-0.45 mm Cu and 0.49-14.87 mm Al using general radiography]. Exposure measurements were acquired under narrow-beam geometry using standard methods, including the appropriate ionization chamber, for each radiographic system. Nonlinear regression was used to find the best-fit curve of the proposed Lambert W model to each measured transmission versus attenuator thickness data set. In addition to validating the Lambert W model, we also assessed the performance of two-point Lambert W interpolation compared to traditional methods for estimating the HVL and QVL [i.e., semilogarithmic (exponential) and linear interpolation]. Results: The Lambert W model was validated for modeling attenuation versus attenuator thickness with respect to the data collected in this study (R 2 > 0.99). Furthermore, Lambert W interpolation was more accurate and less sensitive to the choice of interpolation points used to estimate the HVL and/or QVL than the traditional methods of semilogarithmic and linear interpolation. Conclusions: The proposed Lambert W model accurately describes attenuation of both monoenergetic radiation and (kilovoltage) polyenergetic beams (under narrow-beam geometry).
An empirical model of diagnostic x-ray attenuation under narrow-beam geometry.
Mathieu, Kelsey B; Kappadath, S Cheenu; White, R Allen; Atkinson, E Neely; Cody, Dianna D
2011-08-01
The purpose of this study was to develop and validate a mathematical model to describe narrow-beam attenuation of kilovoltage x-ray beams for the intended applications of half-value layer (HVL) and quarter-value layer (QVL) estimations, patient organ shielding, and computer modeling. An empirical model, which uses the Lambert W function and represents a generalized Lambert-Beer law, was developed. To validate this model, transmission of diagnostic energy x-ray beams was measured over a wide range of attenuator thicknesses [0.49-33.03 mm Al on a computed tomography (CT) scanner, 0.09-1.93 mm Al on two mammography systems, and 0.1-0.45 mm Cu and 0.49-14.87 mm Al using general radiography]. Exposure measurements were acquired under narrow-beam geometry using standard methods, including the appropriate ionization chamber, for each radiographic system. Nonlinear regression was used to find the best-fit curve of the proposed Lambert W model to each measured transmission versus attenuator thickness data set. In addition to validating the Lambert W model, we also assessed the performance of two-point Lambert W interpolation compared to traditional methods for estimating the HVL and QVL [i.e., semi-logarithmic (exponential) and linear interpolation]. The Lambert W model was validated for modeling attenuation versus attenuator thickness with respect to the data collected in this study (R2 > 0.99). Furthermore, Lambert W interpolation was more accurate and less sensitive to the choice of interpolation points used to estimate the HVL and/or QVL than the traditional methods of semilogarithmic and linear interpolation. The proposed Lambert W model accurately describes attenuation of both monoenergetic radiation and (kilovoltage) polyenergetic beams (under narrow-beam geometry).
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hajjaji-Rachdi, Fatima
2015-01-01
Austenitic stainless steels are potential candidates for structural components of sodium-cooled fast neutron reactors. Many of these components will be subjected to cyclic loadings including long hold times (1 month) under creep or relaxation at high temperature. These hold times are unattainable experimentally. The aim of the present study is to propose mechanical models which take into account the involved mechanisms and their interactions during such complex loadings. First, an experimental study of the pure fatigue and fatigue-relaxation behavior of 316L(N) at 500 C has been carried out with very long hold times (10 h and 50 h) compared with the ones studied in literature. Tensile tests at 600 C with different applied strain rates have been undertaken in order to study the dynamic strain ageing phenomenon. Before focusing on more complex loadings, the mean field homogenization approach has been used to predict the mechanical behavior of different FCC metals and alloys under low cycle fatigue at room temperature. Both Hill-Hutchinson and Kroener models have been used. Next, a physically-based model based on dislocation densities has been developed and its parameters measured. The model allows predictions in a qualitative agreement with experimental data for tensile loadings. Finally, this model has been enriched to take into account visco-plasticity, dislocation climb and interaction between dislocations and solute atoms, which are influent during creep-fatigue or fatigue relaxation at high temperature. The proposed model uses three adjustable parameters only and allows rather accurate prediction of the behavior of 316L(N) steel under tensile loading and relaxation. (author) [fr
A Generic Decomposition Formula for Pricing Vanilla Options under Stochastic Volatility Models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Raúl Merino
2015-01-01
Full Text Available We obtain a decomposition of the call option price for a very general stochastic volatility diffusion model, extending a previous decomposition formula for the Heston model. We realize that a new term arises when the stock price does not follow an exponential model. The techniques used for this purpose are nonanticipative. In particular, we also see that equivalent results can be obtained by using Functional Itô Calculus. Using the same generalizing ideas, we also extend to nonexponential models the alternative call option price decomposition formula written in terms of the Malliavin derivative of the volatility process. Finally, we give a general expression for the derivative of the implied volatility under both the anticipative and the nonanticipative cases.
Research on listed bank profit model under the interest rate liberalization
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Geyao Zhu
2017-03-01
Full Text Available With constantly deepening the interest rate liberalization, shrinking the net interest margin and the ever-rising non-performing loan ratio, the traditional commercial banks with the main profit model of credit suffers from a severe challenge. The research significance of this paper lies in helping China’s commercial bank convert management philosophy, developing a new financial business and improving the profit model. Through the empirical research of 80 samples of China’s listed commercial banks: under the condition of interest rate liberalization, the net interest margin is still the current major profit model of the commercial bank, but the intermediate business is the future development model of the commercial banks.
Corporate Responsibility under the ECSI model: An application in the hotel sector
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
María-Ángeles Revilla-Camacho
2017-01-01
Full Text Available This article deals with the study of Corporate Responsibility (CR under the European Customer Satisfaction Index (ECSI. The methodology of this empirical study, conducted among 629 customers staying at hotels in the city of Seville, is based on structural equation modeling (PLS. The results obtained demonstrate the applicability of the European model to the hotel sector, although not all the relationships from the original model have been proven. The main contributions are derived from a better understanding of the model's components, a variable not studied before having been incorporated: the importance of Corporate Responsibility (CR. Moreover, it means to contribute to the field of research on CR as, despite the growing interest in the subject, the effects of this construct are still poorly understood.
An EPQ Inventory Model with Allowable Shortages for Deteriorating Items under Trade Credit Policy
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zohreh Molamohamadi
2014-01-01
Full Text Available This paper attempts to obtain the replenishment policy of a manufacturer under EPQ inventory model with backorder. It is assumed here that the manufacturer delays paying for the received goods from the supplier and the items start deteriorating as soon as they are being produced. Based on these assumptions, the manufacturer’s inventory model is formulated, and cuckoo search algorithm is applied then to find the replenishment time, order quantity, and selling price with the objective of maximizing the manufacturer’s total net profit. Besides, the traditional inventory system is shown as a special case of the proposed model in this paper, and numerical examples are given to demonstrate better performance of trade credit. These examples are also used to compare the results of cuckoo search algorithm with genetic algorithm and investigate the effects of the model parameters on its variables and net profit.
Anger and the ABC model underlying Rational-Emotive Behavior Therapy.
Ziegler, Daniel J; Smith, Phillip N
2004-06-01
The ABC model underlying Ellis's Rational-Emotive Behavior Therapy predicts that people who think more irrationally should display greater trait anger than do people who think less irrationally. This study tested this prediction regarding the ABC model. 186 college students were administered the Survey of Personal Beliefs and the State-Trait Anger Expression Inventory-Second Edition to measure irrational thinking and trait anger, respectively. Students who scored higher on Overall Irrational Thinking and Low Frustration Tolerance scored significantly higher on Trait Anger than did those who scored lower on Overall Irrational Thinking and Low Frustration Tolerance. This indicates support for the ABC model, especially Ellis's construct of irrational beliefs which is central to the model.
A test of the ABC model underlying rational emotive behavior therapy.
Ziegler, Daniel J; Leslie, Yvonne M
2003-02-01
The ABC model underlying Ellis's Rational Emotive Behavior Therapy predicts that people who think more irrationally should respond to daily stressors or hassles differently than do people who think less irrationally. This study tested this aspect of the ABC model. 192 college students were administered the Survey of Personal Beliefs and the Hassles Scale to measure irrational thinking and daily hassles, respectively. Students who scored higher on overall irrational thinking reported a significantly higher frequency of hassles than did those who scored lower on overall irrational thinking, while students who scored higher on awfulizing and low frustration tolerance reported a significantly greater intensity of hassles than did those who scored lower on awfulizing and low frustration tolerance. This indicates support for the ABC model, especially Ellis's construct of irrational beliefs central to this model.
Schaefli, Bettina
2015-04-01
Hydropower is a pillar for renewable electricity production in almost all world regions. The planning horizon of major hydropower infrastructure projects stretches over several decades and consideration of evolving climatic conditions plays an ever increasing role. This review of model-based climate change impact assessments provides a synthesis of the wealth of underlying modelling assumptions, highlights the importance of local factors and attempts to identify the most urgent open questions. Based on existing case studies, it critically discusses whether current hydro-climatic modelling frameworks are likely to provide narrow enough water scenario ranges to be included into economic analyses for end-to-end climate change impact assessments including electricity market models. This will be completed with an overview of not or indirectly climate-related boundary conditions, such as economic growth, legal constraints, national subsidy frameworks or growing competition for water, which might locally largely outweigh any climate change impacts.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Guo, Chunxiang; Liu, Xiaoli; Jin, Maozhu; Lv, Zhihan
2016-01-01
Considering the uncertainty of the macroeconomic environment, the robust optimization method is studied for constructing and designing the automotive supply chain network, and based on the definition of robust solution a robust optimization model is built for integrated supply chain network design that consists of supplier selection problem and facility location–distribution problem. The tabu search algorithm is proposed for supply chain node configuration, analyzing the influence of the level of uncertainty on robust results, and by comparing the performance of supply chain network design through the stochastic programming model and robustness optimize model, on this basis, determining the rational layout of supply chain network under macroeconomic fluctuations. At last the contrastive test result validates that the performance of tabu search algorithm is outstanding on convergence and computational time. Meanwhile it is indicated that the robust optimization model can reduce investment risks effectively when it is applied to supply chain network design.
A robust method for detecting nuclear materials when the underlying model is inexact
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kump, Paul; Bai, Er-Wei; Chan, Kung-sik; Eichinger, William
2013-01-01
This paper is concerned with the detection and identification of nuclides from weak and poorly resolved gamma-ray energy spectra when the underlying model is not known exactly. The algorithm proposed and tested here pairs an exciting and relatively new model selection algorithm with the method of total least squares. Gamma-ray counts are modeled as Poisson processes where the average part is taken to be the model and the difference between the observed gamma-ray counts and the model is considered random noise. Physics provides a template for the model, but we add uncertainty to this template to simulate real life conditions. Unlike most model selection algorithms whose utilities are demonstrated asymptotically, our method emphasizes selection when data is fixed and finite (after all, detector data is undoubtedly finite). Simulation examples provided here demonstrate the proposed algorithm performs well. -- Highlights: • Identification of nuclides in the presence of large noise/uncertainty. • Algorithm is based on a Poisson model. • Key idea is the regularized total least squares. • Algorithms are tested and compared with existing methods
A tool for efficient, model-independent management optimization under uncertainty
White, Jeremy; Fienen, Michael N.; Barlow, Paul M.; Welter, Dave E.
2018-01-01
To fill a need for risk-based environmental management optimization, we have developed PESTPP-OPT, a model-independent tool for resource management optimization under uncertainty. PESTPP-OPT solves a sequential linear programming (SLP) problem and also implements (optional) efficient, “on-the-fly” (without user intervention) first-order, second-moment (FOSM) uncertainty techniques to estimate model-derived constraint uncertainty. Combined with a user-specified risk value, the constraint uncertainty estimates are used to form chance-constraints for the SLP solution process, so that any optimal solution includes contributions from model input and observation uncertainty. In this way, a “single answer” that includes uncertainty is yielded from the modeling analysis. PESTPP-OPT uses the familiar PEST/PEST++ model interface protocols, which makes it widely applicable to many modeling analyses. The use of PESTPP-OPT is demonstrated with a synthetic, integrated surface-water/groundwater model. The function and implications of chance constraints for this synthetic model are discussed.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ardaneh, Kazem; Zaferanlouei, Salman
2013-01-01
Highlights: ► A model is presented to simulate the reactivity insertion transient in MTR reactors. ► Transient dynamics of IAEA 10 MW MTR type research reactor are evaluated. ► Maximum unprotected reactivity insertion for safe condition is calculated. ► The model predictions are validated with corresponding results in the literature. - Abstract: On the basis of lumped parameter modeling of both the kinetic and thermal–hydraulic effects, a reasonably accurate simplified model has been developed to predict the dynamic response of MTR reactors following to an unprotected reactivity insertion under natural convection regime. By this model the reactor transient behavior at a given initial steady-state can be solved by a set of ordinary differential equations. The model predictions have an acceptable consent with corresponding results of reactivity insertion transients analyzed in the literature. The inherent safety characteristics of MTR research reactors utilizing natural convection is clearly demonstrated by the expanded model. The safety margin of reactor operating is selected ONB condition and thereby the proposed model determines that any slight increase in the value of $0.73 for inserted reactivity will cause the maximum cladding surface temperature to exceed the ONB condition
Analysis of automotive rolling lobe air spring under alternative factors with finite element model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wong, Pak Kin; Xie, Zhengchao; Zhao, Jing; Xu, Tao; He, Feng
2014-01-01
Air springs are widely used in automotive suspensions for their superior performance in terms of low friction motion, adjustable load carrying capacity and user-friendly ride height control. However, it has posed great difficulties in constructing an accurate model as well as the analysis of the influence of alternative factors, such as cord angle, cord diameter and initial pressure. In this paper, a numerical model of the rolling lobe air spring (RLAS) is built by using finite element method and compared with an existing analytical model. An experiment with respect to the vertical stiffness of the RLAS is carried out to validate the accuracy of the proposed model. Evaluation result reveals that the existing analytical model cannot represent the performance of the RLAS very well, whereas the accuracy of the numerical model is very good. With the verified numerical model, the impacts of many alternative factors on the characteristics of the RLAS are analyzed. Numerical results show that the newly proposed model is reliable to determine the vertical characteristic and physical dimensions of the RLAS under the alternative factors.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lee, Kang Moon; Ohn, Myung Ryong; Im, Hong Sik; Choi, Jong Hoh; Hwang, Soon Taek
1995-01-01
The gap conductance between the fuel and the sheath depends strongly on the gap width and has a significant influence on the amount of initial stored energy. The modified Ross and Stoute gap conductance model in ELESTRES is based on a simplified thermal deformation model for steady-state fuel temperature calculations. A review on a series of experiments reveals that fuel pellets crack, relocate, and are eccentrically positioned within the sheath rather than solid concentric cylinders. In this paper, the two recently-proposed gap conductance models (offset gap model and relocated gap model) are described and are applied to calculate the fuel-sheath gap conductances under experimental conditions and normal operating conditions in CANDU reactors. The good agreement between the experimentally-inferred and calculated gap conductance values demonstrates that the modified Ross and Stoute model was implemented correctly in ELESTRES. The predictions of the modified Ross and Stoute model provide conservative values for gap heat transfer and fuel surface temperature compared to the offset gap and relocated gap models for a limiting power envelope. 13 figs., 3 tabs., 16 refs. (Author)
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bastardie, Francois; Nielsen, J. Rasmus; Eigaard, Ole Ritzau
2015-01-01
DISPLACE model) to combine stochastic variations in spatial fishing activities with harvested resource dynamics in scenario projections. The assessment computes economic and stock status indicators by modelling the activity of Danish, Swedish, and German vessels (.12 m) in the international western Baltic...... Sea commercial fishery, together with the underlying size-based distribution dynamics of the main fishery resources of sprat, herring, and cod. The outcomes of alternative scenarios for spatial effort displacement are exemplified by evaluating the fishers’s abilities to adapt to spatial plans under...... various constraints. Interlinked spatial, technical, and biological dynamics of vessels and stocks in the scenarios result in stable profits, which compensate for the additional costs from effort displacement and release pressure on the fish stocks. The effort is further redirected away from sensitive...
A stochastic SIRS epidemic model with infectious force under intervention strategies
Cai, Yongli; Kang, Yun; Banerjee, Malay; Wang, Weiming
2015-12-01
In this paper, we extend a classical SIRS epidemic model with the infectious forces under intervention strategies from a deterministic framework to a stochastic differential equation (SDE) one through introducing random fluctuations. The value of our study lies in two aspects. Mathematically, by using the Markov semigroups theory, we prove that the reproduction number R0S can be used to govern the stochastic dynamics of SDE model. If R0S 1, under mild extra conditions, it has an endemic stationary distribution which leads to the stochastical persistence of the disease. Epidemiologically, we find that random fluctuations can suppress disease outbreak, which can provide us some useful control strategies to regulate disease dynamics.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
De-Lei Sheng
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Unlike traditionally used reserves models, this paper focuses on a reserve process with dynamic income to study the reinsurance-investment problem for an insurer under Vasicek stochastic interest rate model. The insurer’s dynamic income is given by the remainder after a dynamic reward budget being subtracted from the insurer’s net premium which is calculated according to expected premium principle. Applying stochastic control technique, a Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation is established and the explicit solution is obtained under the objective of maximizing the insurer’s power utility of terminal wealth. Some economic interpretations of the obtained results are explained in detail. In addition, numerical analysis and several graphics are given to illustrate our results more meticulous.
Plasma-particle interaction effects in induction plasma modelling under dense loading conditions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Proulx, P.; Mostaghimi, J.; Boulos, M.
1983-07-01
The injection of solid particles or aerosol droplets in the fire-ball of an inductively coupled plasma can substantially perturb the plasma and even quench it under high loading conditions. This can be mainly attributed to the local cooling of the plasma by the particles or their vapour cloud, combined with the possible change of the thermodynamic and transport properties of the plasma in the presence of the particle vapour. This paper reports the state-of-the-art in the mathematical modelling of the induction plasma. A particle-in-cell model is used in order to combine the continuum approach for the calculation of the flow, temperature and concentration fields in the plasma, with the stochastic single particle approach, for the calculation of the particle trajectories and temperature histories. Results are given for an argon induction plasma under atmospheric pressure in which fine copper particles are centrally injected in the coil region of the discharge
Modeling the state dependent impulse control for computer virus propagation under media coverage
Liang, Xiyin; Pei, Yongzhen; Lv, Yunfei
2018-02-01
A state dependent impulsive control model is proposed to model the spread of computer virus incorporating media coverage. By the successor function, the sufficient conditions for the existence and uniqueness of order-1 periodic solution are presented first. Secondly, for two classes of periodic solutions, the geometric property of successor function and the analogue of the Poincaré criterion are employed to obtain the stability results. These results show that the number of the infective computers is under the threshold all the time. Finally, the theoretic and numerical analysis show that media coverage can delay the spread of computer virus.
Numerical modeling of heat and mass transfer in the human eye under millimeter wave exposure.
Karampatzakis, Andreas; Samaras, Theodoros
2013-05-01
Human exposure to millimeter wave (MMW) radiation is expected to increase in the next several years. In this work, we present a thermal model of the human eye under MMW illumination. The model takes into account the fluid dynamics of the aqueous humor and predicts a frequency-dependent reversal of its flow that also depends on the incident power density. The calculated maximum fluid velocity in the anterior chamber and the temperature rise at the corneal apex are reported for frequencies from 40 to 100 GHz and different values of incident power density. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Can We Efficiently Check Concurrent Programs Under Relaxed Memory Models in Maude?
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Arrahman, Yehia Abd; Andric, Marina; Beggiato, Alessandro
2014-01-01
to the state space explosion. Several techniques have been proposed to mitigate those problems so to make verification under relaxed memory models feasible. We discuss how to adopt some of those techniques in a Maude-based approach to language prototyping, and suggest the use of other techniques that have been......Relaxed memory models offer suitable abstractions of the actual optimizations offered by multi-core architectures and by compilers of concurrent programming languages. Using such abstractions for verification purposes is challenging in part due to their inherent non-determinism which contributes...
Soil Moisture Estimate under Forest using a Semi-empirical Model at P-Band
Truong-Loi, M.; Saatchi, S.; Jaruwatanadilok, S.
2013-12-01
In this paper we show the potential of a semi-empirical algorithm to retrieve soil moisture under forests using P-band polarimetric SAR data. In past decades, several remote sensing techniques have been developed to estimate the surface soil moisture. In most studies associated with radar sensing of soil moisture, the proposed algorithms are focused on bare or sparsely vegetated surfaces where the effect of vegetation can be ignored. At long wavelengths such as L-band, empirical or physical models such as the Small Perturbation Model (SPM) provide reasonable estimates of surface soil moisture at depths of 0-5cm. However for densely covered vegetated surfaces such as forests, the problem becomes more challenging because the vegetation canopy is a complex scattering environment. For this reason there have been only few studies focusing on retrieving soil moisture under vegetation canopy in the literature. Moghaddam et al. developed an algorithm to estimate soil moisture under a boreal forest using L- and P-band SAR data. For their studied area, double-bounce between trunks and ground appear to be the most important scattering mechanism. Thereby, they implemented parametric models of radar backscatter for double-bounce using simulations of a numerical forest scattering model. Hajnsek et al. showed the potential of estimating the soil moisture under agricultural vegetation using L-band polarimetric SAR data and using polarimetric-decomposition techniques to remove the vegetation layer. Here we use an approach based on physical formulation of dominant scattering mechanisms and three parameters that integrates the vegetation and soil effects at long wavelengths. The algorithm is a simplification of a 3-D coherent model of forest canopy based on the Distorted Born Approximation (DBA). The simplified model has three equations and three unknowns, preserving the three dominant scattering mechanisms of volume, double-bounce and surface for three polarized backscattering
Physical Modelling of Bucket Foundation Under Long-Term Cyclic Lateral Loading
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Foglia, Aligi; Ibsen, Lars Bo; Andersen, Lars Vabbersgaard
2012-01-01
Offshore wind farms are a promising renewable energy source. The monopod bucket foundation has the potential to become a reliable and cost-effective concept for offshore wind turbines. The bucket foundation must be designed by accounting for the cyclic loading which might endanger the turbine...... functioning. In this article a 1g physical model of bucket foundation under horizontal and moment cyclic loading is described. A testing program including four tests was carried out. Every test was conducted for at least 30000 cycles, each with different loading features. The capability of the model...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Victor Yurievich Stroganov
2017-02-01
Full Text Available This article contains the systematization of the major production functions of repair activities network and the list of planning and control functions, which are described in the form of business processes (BP. Simulation model for analysis of the delivery effectiveness of components under conditions of probabilistic uncertainty was proposed. It has been shown that a significant portion of the total number of business processes is represented by the management and planning of the parts and components movement. Questions of construction of experimental design techniques on the simulation model in the conditions of non-stationarity were considered.
A robust optimization model for agile and build-to-order supply chain planning under uncertainties
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Lalmazloumian, Morteza; Wong, Kuan Yew; Govindan, Kannan
2016-01-01
Supply chain planning as one of the most important processes within the supply chain management concept, has a great impact on firms' success or failure. This paper considers a supply chain planning problem of an agile manufacturing company operating in a build-to-order environment under various....... The formulation is a robust optimization model with the objective of minimizing the expected total supply chain cost while maintaining customer service level. The developed multi-product, multi-period, multi-echelon robust mixed-integer linear programming model is then solved using the CPLEX optimization studio...
Experimental modelling of core debris dispersion from the vault under a PWR pressure vessel: Part 1
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Macbeth, R.V.; Trenberth, R.
1987-12-01
Modelling experiments have been done on a 1/25 scale model in Perspex of the vault under a PWR pressure vessel. Various liquids have been used to simulate molten core debris assumed to have fallen on to the vault floor from a breach at the bottom of the pressure vessel. High pressure air and helium have been used to simulate the discharge of steam and gas from the breach. The dispersion of liquid via the vault access shafts has been measured. Photographs have been taken of fluid flow patterns and velocity profiles have been obtained. The requirements for further experiments are indicated. (author)
Modelling of space-charge accumulation process in dielectrics of MDS structures under irradiation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gurtov, V.A.; Nazarov, A.I.; Travkov, I.V.
1990-01-01
Results of numerical modelling of radiation-induced space charge (RISC) accumulation in MOS structure silicon dioxide are given. Diffusion-drift model which takes account of trap heterogeneous distribution within dielectric volume and channeling of carriers captured at traps represents basis for calculations. Main physical processes affecting RISC accumulation are picked out and character of capture filling in dielectric volume under stress in MOS structure shutter during irradiation on the basis of comparison of experimental results for different thickness oxides with calculation data are predicted
Wang, Yu; Fan, Jie; Xu, Ye; Sun, Wei; Chen, Dong
2017-06-01
Effective application of carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) systems could help to alleviate the influence of climate change by reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The research objective of this study is to develop an equilibrium chance-constrained programming model with bi-random variables (ECCP model) for supporting the CCUS management system under random circumstances. The major advantage of the ECCP model is that it tackles random variables as bi-random variables with a normal distribution, where the mean values follow a normal distribution. This could avoid irrational assumptions and oversimplifications in the process of parameter design and enrich the theory of stochastic optimization. The ECCP model is solved by an equilibrium change-constrained programming algorithm, which provides convenience for decision makers to rank the solution set using the natural order of real numbers. The ECCP model is applied to a CCUS management problem, and the solutions could be useful in helping managers to design and generate rational CO2-allocation patterns under complexities and uncertainties.
An analytical model of the mechanical properties of bulk coal under confined stress
Wang, G.X.; Wang, Z.T.; Rudolph, V.; Massarotto, P.; Finley, R.J.
2007-01-01
This paper presents the development of an analytical model which can be used to relate the structural parameters of coal to its mechanical properties such as elastic modulus and Poisson's ratio under a confined stress condition. This model is developed primarily to support process modeling of coalbed methane (CBM) or CO2-enhanced CBM (ECBM) recovery from coal seam. It applied an innovative approach by which stresses acting on and strains occurring in coal are successively combined in rectangular coordinates, leading to the aggregated mechanical constants. These mechanical properties represent important information for improving CBM/ECBM simulations and incorporating within these considerations of directional permeability. The model, consisting of constitutive equations which implement a mechanically consistent stress-strains correlation, can be used as a generalized tool to study the mechanical and fluid behaviors of coal composites. An example using the model to predict the stress-strain correlation of coal under triaxial confined stress by accounting for the elastic and brittle (non-elastic) deformations is discussed. The result shows a good agreement between the prediction and the experimental measurement. ?? 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Zhang, Chenglong; Zhang, Fan; Guo, Shanshan; Liu, Xiao; Guo, Ping
2018-01-01
An inexact nonlinear mλ-measure fuzzy chance-constrained programming (INMFCCP) model is developed for irrigation water allocation under uncertainty. Techniques of inexact quadratic programming (IQP), mλ-measure, and fuzzy chance-constrained programming (FCCP) are integrated into a general optimization framework. The INMFCCP model can deal with not only nonlinearities in the objective function, but also uncertainties presented as discrete intervals in the objective function, variables and left-hand side constraints and fuzziness in the right-hand side constraints. Moreover, this model improves upon the conventional fuzzy chance-constrained programming by introducing a linear combination of possibility measure and necessity measure with varying preference parameters. To demonstrate its applicability, the model is then applied to a case study in the middle reaches of Heihe River Basin, northwest China. An interval regression analysis method is used to obtain interval crop water production functions in the whole growth period under uncertainty. Therefore, more flexible solutions can be generated for optimal irrigation water allocation. The variation of results can be examined by giving different confidence levels and preference parameters. Besides, it can reflect interrelationships among system benefits, preference parameters, confidence levels and the corresponding risk levels. Comparison between interval crop water production functions and deterministic ones based on the developed INMFCCP model indicates that the former is capable of reflecting more complexities and uncertainties in practical application. These results can provide more reliable scientific basis for supporting irrigation water management in arid areas.
Janardhanan, S.; Datta, B.
2011-12-01
Surrogate models are widely used to develop computationally efficient simulation-optimization models to solve complex groundwater management problems. Artificial intelligence based models are most often used for this purpose where they are trained using predictor-predictand data obtained from a numerical simulation model. Most often this is implemented with the assumption that the parameters and boundary conditions used in the numerical simulation model are perfectly known. However, in most practical situations these values are uncertain. Under these circumstances the application of such approximation surrogates becomes limited. In our study we develop a surrogate model based coupled simulation optimization methodology for determining optimal pumping strategies for coastal aquifers considering parameter uncertainty. An ensemble surrogate modeling approach is used along with multiple realization optimization. The methodology is used to solve a multi-objective coastal aquifer management problem considering two conflicting objectives. Hydraulic conductivity and the aquifer recharge are considered as uncertain values. Three dimensional coupled flow and transport simulation model FEMWATER is used to simulate the aquifer responses for a number of scenarios corresponding to Latin hypercube samples of pumping and uncertain parameters to generate input-output patterns for training the surrogate models. Non-parametric bootstrap sampling of this original data set is used to generate multiple data sets which belong to different regions in the multi-dimensional decision and parameter space. These data sets are used to train and test multiple surrogate models based on genetic programming. The ensemble of surrogate models is then linked to a multi-objective genetic algorithm to solve the pumping optimization problem. Two conflicting objectives, viz, maximizing total pumping from beneficial wells and minimizing the total pumping from barrier wells for hydraulic control of
Doroszkiewicz, J. M.; Romanowicz, R. J.
2016-12-01
The standard procedure of climate change impact assessment on future hydrological extremes consists of a chain of consecutive actions, starting from the choice of GCM driven by an assumed CO2 scenario, through downscaling of climatic forcing to a catchment scale, estimation of hydrological extreme indices using hydrological modelling tools and subsequent derivation of flood risk maps with the help of a hydraulic model. Among many possible sources of uncertainty, the main are the uncertainties related to future climate scenarios, climate models, downscaling techniques and hydrological and hydraulic models. Unfortunately, we cannot directly assess the impact of these different sources of uncertainties on flood risk in future due to lack of observations of future climate realizations. The aim of this study is an assessment of a relative impact of different sources of uncertainty on the uncertainty of flood risk maps. Due to the complexity of the processes involved, an assessment of total uncertainty of maps of inundation probability might be very computer time consuming. As a way forward we present an application of a hydraulic model simulator based on a nonlinear transfer function model for the chosen locations along the river reach. The transfer function model parameters are estimated based on the simulations of the hydraulic model at each of the model cross-sections. The study shows that the application of a simulator substantially reduces the computer requirements related to the derivation of flood risk maps under future climatic conditions. Biala Tarnowska catchment, situated in southern Poland is used as a case study. Future discharges at the input to a hydraulic model are obtained using the HBV model and climate projections obtained from the EUROCORDEX project. The study describes a cascade of uncertainty related to different stages of the process of derivation of flood risk maps under changing climate conditions. In this context it takes into account the
Non-lane-discipline-based car-following model under honk environment
Rong, Ying; Wen, Huiying
2018-04-01
This study proposed a non-lane-discipline-based car-following model by synthetically considering the visual angles and the timid/aggressive characteristics of drivers under honk environment. We firstly derived the neutral stability condition by the linear stability theory. It showed that the parameters related to visual angles and driving characteristics of drivers under honk environment all have significant impact on the stability of non-lane-discipline traffic flow. For better understanding the inner mechanism among these factors, we further analyzed how each parameter affects the traffic flow and gained further insight into how the visual angles information influences other parameters and then influences the non-lane-discipline traffic flow under honk environment. And the results showed that the other aspects such as driving characteristics of drivers or honk effect are all interacted with the "Visual-Angle Factor". And the effect of visual angle is not just to say simply it has larger stable region or not as the existing studies. Finally, to verify the proposed model, we carried out the numerical simulation under the periodic boundary condition. And the results of numerical simulation are agreed well with the theoretical findings.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yong Long
2012-01-01
Full Text Available Under the environment of fuzzy factors including the return of market, performance of product, and the demanding level of market, we use the method of dynamic programming and establish the model of investment decision, in technology innovation project of enterprise, based on the dynamic programming. Analysis of the influence caused by the changes of fuzzy uncertainty factors to technological innovation project investment of enterprise.
A model of entry-exit decisions and capacity choice under demand uncertainty
Isik, Murat; Coble, Keith H.; Hudson, Darren; House, Lisa O.
2003-01-01
Many investment decisions of agribusiness firms, such as when to invest in an emerging market or whether to expand the capacity of the firm, involve irreversible investment and uncertainty about demand, cost or competition. This paper uses an option-value model to examine the factors affecting an agribusiness firm's decision whether and how much to invest in an emerging market under demand uncertainty. Demand uncertainty and irreversibility of investment make investment less desirable than th...
Statistical thermodynamics and mean-field theory for the alloy under irradiation model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kamyshendo, V.
1993-01-01
A generalization of statistical thermodynamics to the open systems case, is discussed, using as an example the alloy-under-irradiation model. The statistical properties of stationary states are described with the use of generalized thermodynamic potentials and 'quasi-interactions' determined from the master equation for micro-configuration probabilities. Methods for resolving this equation are illustrated by the mean-field type calculations of correlators, thermodynamic potentials and phase diagrams for disordered alloys
Modeling and simulating command and control for organizations under extreme situations
Moon, Il-Chul; Kim, Tag Gon
2013-01-01
Commanding and controlling organizations in extreme situations is a challenging task in military, intelligence, and disaster management. Such command and control must be quick, effective, and considerate when dealing with the changing, complex, and risky conditions of the situation. To enable optimal command and control under extremes, robust structures and efficient operations are required of organizations. This work discusses how to design and conduct virtual experiments on resilient organizational structures and operational practices using modeling and simulation. The work illustrates key a
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Glenn, Autumn L.; Bulusu, Kartik V.; Shu Fangjun; Plesniak, Michael W.
2012-01-01
Secondary flows within curved arteries with unsteady forcing result from amplified centrifugal instabilities and are expected to be driven by the rapid accelerations and decelerations inherent in physiological waveforms. These secondary flows may also affect the function of curved arteries through pro-atherogenic wall shear stresses, platelet residence time and other vascular response mechanisms. Planar PIV measurements were performed under multi-harmonic non-zero-mean and physiological carotid artery waveforms at various locations in a rigid bent-pipe curved artery model. Results revealed symmetric counter-rotating vortex pairs that developed during the acceleration phases of both multi-harmonic and physiological waveforms. An idealized stent model was placed upstream of the bend, which initiated flow perturbations under physiological inflow conditions. Changes in the secondary flow structures were observed during the systolic deceleration phase (t/T ≈ 0.20–0.50). Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) analysis of the flow morphologies under unsteady conditions indicated similarities in the coherent secondary-flow structures and correlation with phase-averaged velocity fields. A regime map was created that characterizes the kaleidoscope of vortical secondary flows with multiple vortex pairs and interesting secondary flow morphologies. This regime map in the curved artery model was created by plotting the secondary Reynolds number against another dimensionless acceleration-based parameter marking numbered regions of vortex pairs.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Glenn, Autumn L.; Bulusu, Kartik V. [Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, George Washington University, 801 22nd Street, NW., Washington, DC 20052 (United States); Shu Fangjun [Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, New Mexico State University, MSC 3450, P.O. Box 30001, Las Cruces, NM 88003-8001 (United States); Plesniak, Michael W., E-mail: plesniak@gwu.edu [Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, George Washington University, 801 22nd Street, NW., Washington, DC 20052 (United States)
2012-06-15
Secondary flows within curved arteries with unsteady forcing result from amplified centrifugal instabilities and are expected to be driven by the rapid accelerations and decelerations inherent in physiological waveforms. These secondary flows may also affect the function of curved arteries through pro-atherogenic wall shear stresses, platelet residence time and other vascular response mechanisms. Planar PIV measurements were performed under multi-harmonic non-zero-mean and physiological carotid artery waveforms at various locations in a rigid bent-pipe curved artery model. Results revealed symmetric counter-rotating vortex pairs that developed during the acceleration phases of both multi-harmonic and physiological waveforms. An idealized stent model was placed upstream of the bend, which initiated flow perturbations under physiological inflow conditions. Changes in the secondary flow structures were observed during the systolic deceleration phase (t/T Almost-Equal-To 0.20-0.50). Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) analysis of the flow morphologies under unsteady conditions indicated similarities in the coherent secondary-flow structures and correlation with phase-averaged velocity fields. A regime map was created that characterizes the kaleidoscope of vortical secondary flows with multiple vortex pairs and interesting secondary flow morphologies. This regime map in the curved artery model was created by plotting the secondary Reynolds number against another dimensionless acceleration-based parameter marking numbered regions of vortex pairs.
Flood Inundation Modelling Under Uncertainty Using Globally and Freely Available Remote Sensing Data
Yan, K.; Di Baldassarre, G.; Giustarini, L.; Solomatine, D. P.
2012-04-01
The extreme consequences of recent catastrophic events have highlighted that flood risk prevention still needs to be improved to reduce human losses and economic damages, which have considerably increased worldwide in recent years. Flood risk management and long term floodplain planning are vital for living with floods, which is the currently proposed approach to cope with floods. To support the decision making processes, a significant issue is the availability of data to build appropriate and reliable models, from which the needed information could be obtained. The desirable data for model building, calibration and validation are often not sufficient or available. A unique opportunity is offered nowadays by globally available data which can be freely downloaded from internet. This might open new opportunities for filling the gap between available and needed data, in order to build reliable models and potentially lead to the development of global inundation models to produce floodplain maps for the entire globe. However, there remains the question of what is the real potential of those global remote sensing data, characterized by different accuracy, for global inundation monitoring and how to integrate them with inundation models. This research aims at contributing to understand whether the current globally and freely available remote sensing data (e.g. SRTM, SAR) can be actually used to appropriately support inundation modelling. In this study, the SRTM DEM is used for hydraulic model building, while ENVISAT-ASAR satellite imagery is used for model validation. To test the usefulness of these globally and freely available data, a model based on the high resolution LiDAR DEM and ground data (high water marks) is used as benchmark. The work is carried out on a data-rich test site: the River Alzette in the north of Luxembourg City. Uncertainties are estimated for both SRTM and LiDAR based models. Probabilistic flood inundation maps are produced under the framework of
SDOF models for reinforced concrete beams under impulsive loads accounting for strain rate effects
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Stochino, F., E-mail: fstochino@unica.it [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Architecture, University of Cagliari, Via Marengo 2, 09123 Cagliari (Italy); Carta, G., E-mail: giorgio_carta@unica.it [Department of Mechanical, Chemical and Materials Engineering, University of Cagliari, Via Marengo 2, 09123 Cagliari (Italy)
2014-09-15
Highlights: • Flexural failure of reinforced concrete beams under blast and impact loads is studied. • Two single degree of freedom models are formulated to predict the beam response. • Strain rate effects are taken into account for both models. • The theoretical response obtained from each model is compared with experimental data. • The two models give a good estimation of the maximum deflection at collapse. - Abstract: In this paper, reinforced concrete beams subjected to blast and impact loads are examined. Two single degree of freedom models are proposed to predict the response of the beam. The first model (denoted as “energy model”) is developed from the law of energy balance and assumes that the deformed shape of the beam is represented by its first vibration mode. In the second model (named “dynamic model”), the dynamic behavior of the beam is simulated by a spring-mass oscillator. In both formulations, the strain rate dependencies of the constitutive properties of the beams are considered by varying the parameters of the models at each time step of the computation according to the values of the strain rates of the materials (i.e. concrete and reinforcing steels). The efficiency of each model is evaluated by comparing the theoretical results with experimental data found in literature. The comparison shows that the energy model gives a good estimation of the maximum deflection of the beam at collapse, defined as the attainment of the ultimate strain in concrete. On the other hand, the dynamic model generally provides a smaller value of the maximum displacement. However, both approaches yield reliable results, even though they are based on some approximations. Being also very simple to implement, they may serve as an useful tool in practical applications.
A closed-loop hybrid physiological model relating to subjects under physical stress.
El-Samahy, Emad; Mahfouf, Mahdi; Linkens, Derek A
2006-11-01
The objective of this research study is to derive a comprehensive physiological model relating to subjects under physical stress conditions. The model should describe the behaviour of the cardiovascular system, respiratory system, thermoregulation and brain activity in response to physical workload. An experimental testing rig was built which consists of recumbent high performance bicycle for inducing the physical load and a data acquisition system comprising monitors and PCs. The signals acquired and used within this study are the blood pressure, heart rate, respiration, body temperature, and EEG signals. The proposed model is based on a grey-box based modelling approach which was used because of the sufficient level of details it provides. Cardiovascular and EEG Data relating to 16 healthy subject volunteers (data from 12 subjects were used for training/validation and the data from 4 subjects were used for model testing) were collected using the Finapres and the ProComp+ monitors. For model validation, residual analysis via the computing of the confidence intervals as well as related histograms was performed. Closed-loop simulations for different subjects showed that the model can provide reliable predictions for heart rate, blood pressure, body temperature, respiration, and the EEG signals. These findings were also reinforced by the residual analyses data obtained, which suggested that the residuals were within the 90% confidence bands and that the corresponding histograms were of a normal distribution. A higher intelligent level was added to the model, based on neural networks, to extend the capabilities of the model to predict over a wide range of subjects dynamics. The elicited physiological model describing the effect of physiological stress on several physiological variables can be used to predict performance breakdown of operators in critical environments. Such a model architecture lends itself naturally to exploitation via feedback control in a 'reverse
Ouyang, Wei; Guo, Bobo; Hao, Fanghua; Huang, Haobo; Li, Junqi; Gong, Yongwei
2012-12-30
Managing storm rainfall runoff is paramount in semi-arid regions with urban development. In Beijing, pollution prevention in urban storm runoff and storm water utilization has been identified as the primary strategy for urban water management. In this paper, we sampled runoff during storm rainfall events and analyzed the concentration of chemical oxygen demand (COD), total suspended solids (TSS) and total phosphorus (TP) in the runoff. Furthermore, the first flush effect of storm rainfall from diverse underlying surfaces was also analyzed. With the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM), the different impervious rates of underlying surfaces during the storm runoff process were expressed. The removal rates of three typical pollutants and their interactions with precipitation and underlying surfaces were identified. From these rates, the scenarios regarding the urban storm runoff pollution loading from different designs of underlying previous rates were assessed with the SWMM. First flush effect analysis showed that the first 20% of the storm runoff should be discarded, which can help in utilizing the storm water resource. The results of this study suggest that the SWMM can express in detail the storm water pollution patterns from diverse underlying surfaces in Beijing, which significantly affected water quality. The scenario analysis demonstrated that impervious rate adjustment has the potential to reduce runoff peak and decrease pollution loading. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Christ, H J [Institut fuer Werkstofftechnik, Universitaet Siegen, D-57068 Siegen (Germany); Bauer, V, E-mail: hans-juergen.christ@uni-siegen.d [Wieland Werke AG, Graf-Arco Str. 36, D-89072 Ulm (Germany)
2010-07-01
The cyclic stress-strain behaviour of metals and alloys in cyclic saturation can reasonably be described by means of simple multi-component models, such as the model based on a parallel arrangement of elastic-perfectly plastic elements, which was originally proposed by Masing already in 1923. This model concept was applied to thermomechanical fatigue loading of two metallic engineering materials which were found to be rather oppositional with respect to cyclic plastic deformation. One material is an austenitic stainless steel of type AISI304L which shows dynamic strain aging (DSA) and serves as an example for a rather ductile alloy. A dislocation arrangement was found after TMF testing deviating characteristically from the corresponding isothermal microstructures. The second material is a third-generation near-gamma TiAl alloy which is characterized by a very pronounced ductile-to-brittle transition (DBT) within the temperature range of TMF cycling. Isothermal fatigue testing at temperatures below the DBT temperature leads to cyclic hardening, while cyclic softening was found to occur above DBT. The combined effect under TMF leads to a continuously developing mean stress. The experimental observations regarding isothermal and non-isothermal stress-strain behaviour and the correlation to the underlying microstructural processes was used to further develop the TMF multi-composite model in order to accurately predict the TMF stress-strain response by taking the alloy-specific features into account.
Water deficit effects on maize yields modeled under current and greenhouse climates
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Muchow, R.C.; Sinclair, T.R.
1991-01-01
The availability of water imposes one of the major limits on rainfed maize (Zea mays L.) productivity. This analysis was undertaken in an attempt to quantify the effects of limited water on maize growth and yield by extending a simple, mechanistic model in which temperature regulates crop development and intercepted solar radiation is used to calculate crop biomass accumulation. A soil water budget was incorporated into the model by accounting for inputs from rainfall and irrigation, and water use by soil evaporation and crop transpiration. The response functions of leaf area development and crop gas exchange to the soil water budget were developed from experimental studies. The model was used to interpret a range of field experiments using observed daily values of temperature, solar radiation, and rainfall or irrigation, where water deficits of varying durations developed at different stages of growth. The relative simplicity of the model and its robustness in simulating maize yields under a range of water-availability conditions allows the model to be readily used for studies of crop performance under alternate conditions. One such study, presented here, was a yield assessment for rainfed maize under possible greenhouse climates where temperature and atmospheric CO 2 concentration were increased. An increase in temperature combined with decreased rainfall lowered grain yield, although the increase in crop water use efficiency associated with elevated CO 2 concentration ameliorated the response to the greenhouse climate. Grain yields for the greenhouse climates as compared to current conditions increased, or decreased only slightly, except when the greenhouse climate was assumed to result in severly decreased rainfall
Flood frequency analysis of historical flood data under stationary and non-stationary modelling
Machado, M. J.; Botero, B. A.; López, J.; Francés, F.; Díez-Herrero, A.; Benito, G.
2015-06-01
Historical records are an important source of information on extreme and rare floods and fundamental to establish a reliable flood return frequency. The use of long historical records for flood frequency analysis brings in the question of flood stationarity, since climatic and land-use conditions can affect the relevance of past flooding as a predictor of future flooding. In this paper, a detailed 400 yr flood record from the Tagus River in Aranjuez (central Spain) was analysed under stationary and non-stationary flood frequency approaches, to assess their contribution within hazard studies. Historical flood records in Aranjuez were obtained from documents (Proceedings of the City Council, diaries, chronicles, memoirs, etc.), epigraphic marks, and indirect historical sources and reports. The water levels associated with different floods (derived from descriptions or epigraphic marks) were computed into discharge values using a one-dimensional hydraulic model. Secular variations in flood magnitude and frequency, found to respond to climate and environmental drivers, showed a good correlation between high values of historical flood discharges and a negative mode of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. Over the systematic gauge record (1913-2008), an abrupt change on flood magnitude was produced in 1957 due to constructions of three major reservoirs in the Tagus headwaters (Bolarque, Entrepeñas and Buendia) controlling 80% of the watershed surface draining to Aranjuez. Two different models were used for the flood frequency analysis: (a) a stationary model estimating statistical distributions incorporating imprecise and categorical data based on maximum likelihood estimators, and (b) a time-varying model based on "generalized additive models for location, scale and shape" (GAMLSS) modelling, which incorporates external covariates related to climate variability (NAO index) and catchment hydrology factors (in this paper a reservoir index; RI). Flood frequency
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Su, Yun; He, Jiazhen; Li, Jun
2016-01-01
Highlights: • A numerical model from heating source to skin tissues through multilayer fabric system is developed. • The numerical model is comprehensively validated with experimental data. • The model is used to investigate the relationship between the transmitted and stored energy and the influencing factors. - Abstract: A finite difference model was introduced to simulate the transmitted and stored energy in firefighters' protective clothing exposed to low-level thermal radiation. The model domain consists of a three-layer fire-resistant fabric system (outer shell, moisture barrier, and thermal liner), the human skin, and the air gap between clothing and the skin. The model accounted for the relationship between the transmitted heat during the exposure and the discharged heat during the cooling-down period. The numerical model predictions were compared with experimental data. Additionally, the parameters that affect the transmitted and stored energy of protective clothing were investigated. The results demonstrate that for the typical multilayer firefighter protective clothing, the transmitted heat during exposure and the discharged heat after exposure totally determine the skin burn under low-level heat exposure, especially for third-degree skin burns. The findings obtained in this study can be used to engineer fabric systems that provide better protection for the stored thermal burn.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Motesharezadeh, B.; Navabzadeh, M.; Liyaghat, A. M.
2016-01-01
This study was carried out as a factorial experiment with 5 levels of cadmium (Cd) (o, 25, 50, 75, and 100 mg/kg), 5 levels of salinity (Control, 4, 5, 6, and 7 dS/m), and two soil textures (sandy loam and clay loam). The results showed that the amount of Cd in root and shoot of sunflower increased as soil salinity and Cd concentration increased. The best concentrations for Cd phytoremediation were 75 mg/kg in sandy loam and 100 mg/kg in clay loam. Mass-Hoffman model in simulating transpiration Cd stress as well as Homaee model in simulating salt stress indicated the best results in light soils. By multiplying the salinity stress model by Cd stress model, the simultaneous model for each soil was calculated. These models in light soil (r2=0.68) and heavy soil (r2=0.81) were compatible with measured values. In the heavy soil, absorbed Cd by plant along with increased salinity reflected low changes, but changes in Cd absorbed by plants in the heavy soil were more uniform than in the light soil. In conclusion, for estimating the Cd uptake, the model had a better performance in the heavy soil (under salt stress).
CFD modeling of heat transfer performance of MgO-water nanofluid under turbulent flow
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Reza Davarnejad
2015-12-01
Full Text Available In this paper, Computational fluid dynamics (CFD modeling of turbulent heat transfer behavior of Magnesium Oxide-water nanofluid in a circular tube was studied. The modeling was two dimensional under k–ε turbulence model. The base fluid was pure water and the volume fraction of nanoparticles in the base fluid was 0.0625%, 0.125%, 0.25%, 0.5% and 1%. The applied Reynolds number range was 3000–19000. Three individual models including single phase, Volume of Fluid (VOF and mixture were used. The results showed that the simulated data were in good agreement with the experimental ones available in the literature. According to the experimental work (literature and simulation (this research, Nusselt number (Nu increased with increasing the volume fraction of nanofluid. However friction factor of nanofluid increased but its effect was ignorable compared with the Nu on heat transfer increment. It was concluded that two phase models were more accurate than the others for heat transfer prediction particularly in the higher volume fractions of nanoparticle. The average deviation from experimental data for single phase model was about 11% whereas it was around 2% for two phase models.
A framework for modelling the complexities of food and water security under globalisation
Dermody, Brian J.; Sivapalan, Murugesu; Stehfest, Elke; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Wassen, Martin J.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.; Dekker, Stefan C.
2018-01-01
We present a new framework for modelling the complexities of food and water security under globalisation. The framework sets out a method to capture regional and sectoral interdependencies and cross-scale feedbacks within the global food system that contribute to emergent water use patterns. The framework integrates aspects of existing models and approaches in the fields of hydrology and integrated assessment modelling. The core of the framework is a multi-agent network of city agents connected by infrastructural trade networks. Agents receive socio-economic and environmental constraint information from integrated assessment models and hydrological models respectively and simulate complex, socio-environmental dynamics that operate within those constraints. The emergent changes in food and water resources are aggregated and fed back to the original models with minimal modification of the structure of those models. It is our conviction that the framework presented can form the basis for a new wave of decision tools that capture complex socio-environmental change within our globalised world. In doing so they will contribute to illuminating pathways towards a sustainable future for humans, ecosystems and the water they share.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Huang, Yun-Hsun; Wu, Jung-Hua; Hsu, Yu-Ju
2016-01-01
Traditional electricity supply planning models regard the electricity demand as a deterministic parameter and require the total power output to satisfy the aggregate electricity demand. But in today's world, the electric system planners are facing tremendously complex environments full of uncertainties, where electricity demand is a key source of uncertainty. In addition, electricity demand patterns are considerably different for different regions. This paper developed a multi-region optimization model based on two-stage stochastic programming framework to incorporate the demand uncertainty. Furthermore, the decision tree method and Monte Carlo simulation approach are integrated into the model to simplify electricity demands in the form of nodes and determine the values and probabilities. The proposed model was successfully applied to a real case study (i.e. Taiwan's electricity sector) to show its applicability. Detail simulation results were presented and compared with those generated by a deterministic model. Finally, the long-term electricity development roadmap at a regional level could be provided on the basis of our simulation results. - Highlights: • A multi-region, two-stage stochastic programming model has been developed. • The decision tree and Monte Carlo simulation are integrated into the framework. • Taiwan's electricity sector is used to illustrate the applicability of the model. • The results under deterministic and stochastic cases are shown for comparison. • Optimal portfolios of regional generation technologies can be identified.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Treutenaere S.
2015-01-01
Full Text Available The use of fabric reinforced polymers in the automotive industry is growing significantly. The high specific stiffness and strength, the ease of shaping as well as the great impact performance of these materials widely encourage their diffusion. The present model increases the predictability of explicit finite element analysis and push the boundaries of the ongoing phenomenological model. Carbon fibre composites made up various preforms were tested by applying different mechanical load up to dynamic loading. This experimental campaign highlighted the physical mechanisms affecting the initial mechanical properties, namely intra- and interlaminar matrix damage, viscoelasticty and fibre failure. The intralaminar behaviour model is based on the explicit formulation of the matrix damage model developed by the ONERA as the given damage formulation correlates with the experimental observation. Coupling with a Maxwell-Wiechert model, the viscoelasticity is included without losing the direct explicit formulation. Additionally, the model is formulated under a total Lagrangian scheme in order to maintain consistency for finite strain. Thus, the material frame-indifference as well as anisotropy are ensured. This allows reorientation of fibres to be taken into account particularly for in-plane shear loading. Moreover, fall within the framework of the total Lagrangian scheme greatly makes the parameter identification easier, as based on the initial configuration. This intralaminar model thus relies upon a physical description of the behaviour of fabric composites and the numerical simulations show a good correlation with the experimental results.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Taheri, S.; Vincent, L.; Le-Roux, J.C.
2013-01-01
The application of Miner's rule using a loading issued from a mock-up of a RHR system (removal heat system) of PWR plant, made of 304 steel gives a very important non-conservative fatigue life in strain control when strain fatigue curve is used. This result is due to the absence of sequence effect in Miner's rule. Many non linear damage accumulation models have been proposed to get a sequence effect. Shortcomings of some non linear damage accumulation models are discussed. So Smith-Watson-Topper and Fatemi-Socie criterions with a linear damage accumulation rule are then applied to experimental data. A major issue is the need for an elastic-plastic constitutive law which is difficult to propose in the presence of high cycle secondary hardening observed in austenitic stainless steels. A conservative model for fatigue damage accumulation under variable amplitude loading is then proposed for austenitic stainless steels in strain control, which does not need a constitutive law, but takes into account plasticity through cyclic strain stress curve. The model uses a linear damage accumulation rule. This model is based on the fact that for stainless steels, pre-hardening is detrimental for fatigue life in strain control, while it is beneficial in stress control. In the presence of low mean stress, the model is approved based on a large number of tests. Moreover the model allows to explain the larger detrimental effect of a tension mean stress in strain control tests than in stress control tests. (authors)
On the usage of ultrasound computational models for decision making under ambiguity
Dib, Gerges; Sexton, Samuel; Prowant, Matthew; Crawford, Susan; Diaz, Aaron
2018-04-01
Computer modeling and simulation is becoming pervasive within the non-destructive evaluation (NDE) industry as a convenient tool for designing and assessing inspection techniques. This raises a pressing need for developing quantitative techniques for demonstrating the validity and applicability of the computational models. Computational models provide deterministic results based on deterministic and well-defined input, or stochastic results based on inputs defined by probability distributions. However, computational models cannot account for the effects of personnel, procedures, and equipment, resulting in ambiguity about the efficacy of inspections based on guidance from computational models only. In addition, ambiguity arises when model inputs, such as the representation of realistic cracks, cannot be defined deterministically, probabilistically, or by intervals. In this work, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory demonstrates the ability of computational models to represent field measurements under known variabilities, and quantify the differences using maximum amplitude and power spectrum density metrics. Sensitivity studies are also conducted to quantify the effects of different input parameters on the simulation results.
A framework for modelling the complexities of food and water security under globalisation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
B. J. Dermody
2018-01-01
Full Text Available We present a new framework for modelling the complexities of food and water security under globalisation. The framework sets out a method to capture regional and sectoral interdependencies and cross-scale feedbacks within the global food system that contribute to emergent water use patterns. The framework integrates aspects of existing models and approaches in the fields of hydrology and integrated assessment modelling. The core of the framework is a multi-agent network of city agents connected by infrastructural trade networks. Agents receive socio-economic and environmental constraint information from integrated assessment models and hydrological models respectively and simulate complex, socio-environmental dynamics that operate within those constraints. The emergent changes in food and water resources are aggregated and fed back to the original models with minimal modification of the structure of those models. It is our conviction that the framework presented can form the basis for a new wave of decision tools that capture complex socio-environmental change within our globalised world. In doing so they will contribute to illuminating pathways towards a sustainable future for humans, ecosystems and the water they share.
Nie, W.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Kumar, S.; Rodell, M.
2017-12-01
Advanced Land Surface Models (LSM) offer a powerful tool for studying and monitoring hydrological variability. Highly managed systems, however, present a challenge for these models, which typically have simplified or incomplete representations of human water use, if the process is represented at all. GRACE, meanwhile, detects the total change in water storage, including change due to human activities, but does not resolve the source of these changes. Here we examine recent groundwater declines in the US High Plains Aquifer (HPA), a region that is heavily utilized for irrigation and that is also affected by episodic drought. To understand observed decline in groundwater (well observation) and terrestrial water storage (GRACE) during a recent multi-year drought, we modify the Noah-MP LSM to include a groundwater pumping irrigation scheme. To account for seasonal and interannual variability in active irrigated area we apply a monthly time-varying greenness vegetation fraction (GVF) dataset to the model. A set of five experiments were performed to study the impact of irrigation with groundwater withdrawal on the simulated hydrological cycle of the HPA and to assess the importance of time-varying GVF when simulating drought conditions. The results show that including the groundwater pumping irrigation scheme in Noah-MP improves model agreement with GRACE mascon solutions for TWS and well observations of groundwater anomaly in the southern HPA, including Texas and Kansas, and that accounting for time-varying GVF is important for model realism under drought. Results for the HPA in Nebraska are mixed, likely due to misrepresentation of the recharge process. This presentation will highlight the value of the GRACE constraint for model development, present estimates of the relative contribution of climate variability and irrigation to declining TWS in the HPA under drought, and identify opportunities to integrate GRACE-FO with models for water resource monitoring in heavily
Model calibration for a soft elastomeric capacitor sensor considering slippage under fatigue cracks
Kong, Xiangxiong; Li, Jian; Bennett, Caroline; Collins, William; Laflamme, Simon
2016-04-01
A newly-developed soft elastomeric capacitor (SEC) strain sensor has shown promise in fatigue crack monitoring. The SECs exhibit high levels of ductility and hence do not break under excessive strain when the substrate cracks due to slippage or de-bonding between the sensor and epoxy. The actual strain experienced by a SEC depends on the amount of slippage, which is difficult to simulate numerically, making it challenging to accurately predict the response of a SEC near a crack. In this paper, a two-step approach is proposed to simulate the capacitance response of a SEC. First, a finite element (FE) model of a steel compact tension specimen was analyzed under cyclic loading while the cracking process was simulated based on an element removal technique. Second, a rectangular boundary was defined near the crack region. The SEC outside the boundary was assumed to have perfect bond with the specimen, while that inside the boundary was assumed to deform freely due to slippage. A second FE model was then established to simulate the response of the SEC within the boundary subject to displacements at the boundary from the first FE model. The total simulated capacitance was computed from the model results by combining the computed capacitance inside and outside the boundary. The performance of the simulation incorporating slippage was evaluated by comparing the model results with the experimental data from the test performed on a compact tension specimen. The FE model considering slippage showed results that matched the experimental findings more closely than the FE model that did not consider slippage.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gabriel, H.F.; Umar, I.A.; Khan, G.D.
2003-01-01
For the solution of groundwater problem many types of models are used, but electrical analogue model is preferred due to its close response with its prototype hydrological system. This model is easy to construct and is reusable. In the model voltage is correlated to groundwater head electric current to flow and capacitance to groundwater storage. The analogy of the model is derived based on Kirchhoffs law and Finite difference form of Laplace equation. The network is consisting of square and rectangular meshes. Scaling factor for voltage and resistors are selected. All the equipment needed for assembling the model are prepared. Terminal strips and their connectivity are checked. Calculated resistors with accurate values after cutting and molding are inserted in the terminal strips and desired section is completed. A network of resistors in X and Z direction is used to represent the aquifer. Two stabilized power supply are used to provide the electrical potential. The worst condition is maintained by supplying the maximum head at upstream and dry condition at downstream. After the development of the model conclusion derived shows that the model are in a position to express the groundwater potential for seepage distribution under the floor with high degree of accuracy. Moreover there is a very good proportion between sample and the actual prototype in existence. The actual model when tested by model show very clear results for the sheet pile in relation to floor length to control seepage or uplift pressure caused. The existence design of Sukkur barrage and its overestimation and underestimation with reference to their sheet pile have been specifically determined. (author)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kwong, S.; Jivkov, A.P.
2013-01-01
transport model) to examine the long term behaviour of deep geological repositories with media property change under complex geochemical conditions. (authors)
The modeling of fuel rod behaviour under RIA conditions in the code DYN3D
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rohde, U.
1998-01-01
A description of the fuel rod behaviour and heat transfer model used in the code DYN3D for nuclear reactor core dynamic simulations is given. Besides the solution of heat conduction equations in fuel and cladding, the model comprises detailed description of heat transfer in the gas gap by conduction, radiation and fuel-cladding contact. The gas gap behaviour is modeled in a mechanistic way taking into account transient changes of the gas gap parameters based on given conditions for the initial state. Thermal, elastic and plastic deformations of fuel and cladding are taken into account within 1D approximation. Numerical studies concerning the fuel rod behaviour under RIA conditions in power reactors are reported. Fuel rod behaviour at high pressures and flow rates in power reactors is different from the behaviour under atmospheric pressure and stagnant flow conditions in the experiments. The mechanisms of fuel rod failure for fresh and burned fuel reported from the literature can be qualitatively reproduced by the DYN3D model. (author)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ye Xu
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Nonpoint source (NPS pollution caused by agricultural activities is main reason that water quality in watershed becomes worse, even leading to deterioration. Moreover, pollution control is accompanied with revenue’s fall for agricultural system. How to design and generate a cost-effective and environmentally friendly agricultural production pattern is a critical issue for local managers. In this study, a risk-based interval two-stage programming model (RBITSP was developed. Compared to general ITSP model, significant contribution made by RBITSP model was that it emphasized importance of financial risk under various probabilistic levels, rather than only being concentrated on expected economic benefit, where risk is expressed as the probability of not meeting target profit under each individual scenario realization. This way effectively avoided solutions’ inaccuracy caused by traditional expected objective function and generated a variety of solutions through adjusting weight coefficients, which reflected trade-off between system economy and reliability. A case study of agricultural production management with the Tai Lake watershed was used to demonstrate superiority of proposed model. Obtained results could be a base for designing land-structure adjustment patterns and farmland retirement schemes and realizing balance of system benefit, system-failure risk, and water-body protection.
Electricity supply industry modelling for multiple objectives under demand growth uncertainty
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Heinrich, G.; Basson, L.; Howells, M.; Petrie, J.
2007-01-01
Appropriate energy-environment-economic (E3) modelling provides key information for policy makers in the electricity supply industry (ESI) faced with navigating a sustainable development path. Key challenges include engaging with stakeholder values and preferences, and exploring trade-offs between competing objectives in the face of underlying uncertainty. As a case study we represent the South African ESI using a partial equilibrium E3 modelling approach, and extend the approach to include multiple objectives under selected future uncertainties. This extension is achieved by assigning cost penalties to non-cost attributes to force the model's least-cost objective function to better satisfy non-cost criteria. This paper incorporates aspects of flexibility to demand growth uncertainty into each future expansion alternative by introducing stochastic programming with recourse into the model. Technology lead times are taken into account by the inclusion of a decision node along the time horizon where aspects of real options theory are considered within the planning process. Hedging in the recourse programming is automatically translated from being purely financial, to include the other attributes that the cost penalties represent. From a retrospective analysis of the cost penalties, the correct market signals, can be derived to meet policy goal, with due regard to demand uncertainty. (author)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Poncelet, M.; Hild, F.; Doudard, C.; Calloch, S.; Weber, B.
2010-01-01
Different approaches have been proposed to link high cycle fatigue properties to thermal measurements under cyclic loadings, usually referred to as 'self-heating tests'. This paper focuses on two models whose parameters are tuned by resorting to self-heating tests and then used to predict high cycle fatigue properties. The first model is based upon a yield surface approach to account for stress multi-axiality at a microscopic scale, whereas the second one relies on a probabilistic modelling of micro-plasticity at the scale of slip-planes. Both model identifications are cost effective, relying mainly on quickly obtained temperature data in self-heating tests. They both describe the influence of the stress heterogeneity, the volume effect and the hydrostatic stress on fatigue limits. The thermal effects and mean fatigue limit predictions are in good agreement with experimental results for in and out-of phase tension-torsion loadings. In the case of fatigue under non-proportional loading paths, the mean fatigue limit prediction error of the critical shear stress approach is three times less than with the yield surface approach. (authors)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Poncelet, M.; Hild, F. [Univ Paris 11, PRES, Univ Paris 06, LMT Cachan, ENS Cachan, CNRS, F-94235 Cachan (France); Doudard, C.; Calloch, S. [Univ Brest, ENIB, ENSIETA, LBMS EA 4325, F-29806 Brest, (France); Weber, B. [ArcelorMittal Maizieres Res Voie Romaine, F-57283 Maizieres Les Metz (France)
2010-07-01
Different approaches have been proposed to link high cycle fatigue properties to thermal measurements under cyclic loadings, usually referred to as 'self-heating tests'. This paper focuses on two models whose parameters are tuned by resorting to self-heating tests and then used to predict high cycle fatigue properties. The first model is based upon a yield surface approach to account for stress multi-axiality at a microscopic scale, whereas the second one relies on a probabilistic modelling of micro-plasticity at the scale of slip-planes. Both model identifications are cost effective, relying mainly on quickly obtained temperature data in self-heating tests. They both describe the influence of the stress heterogeneity, the volume effect and the hydrostatic stress on fatigue limits. The thermal effects and mean fatigue limit predictions are in good agreement with experimental results for in and out-of phase tension-torsion loadings. In the case of fatigue under non-proportional loading paths, the mean fatigue limit prediction error of the critical shear stress approach is three times less than with the yield surface approach. (authors)
Analytical modelling of acoustic emission from buried or surface-breaking cracks under stress
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ben Khalifa, W; Jezzine, K; Hello, G; Grondel, S
2012-01-01
Acoustic emission (AE) is a non-destructive testing method used in various industries (aerospace, petrochemical and pressure-vessel industries in general, power generation, civil engineering, mechanical engineering, etc...) for the examination of large structures subjected to various stresses (e.g. mechanical loading).The energy released by a defect under stress (the AE phenomenon) can propagate as guided waves in thin structures or as surface Rayleigh waves in thick ones. Sensors (possibly permanently) are positioned at various locations on the structure under examination and are assumed to be sensitive to these waves. Then, post-processing tools typically based on signal processing and triangulation algorithms can be used to inverse these data, allowing one to estimate the position of the defect from which emanates the waves measured. The French Atomic Energy Commission is engaged in the development of tools for simulating AE examinations. These tools are based on specific models for the AE sources, for the propagation of guided or Rayleigh waves and for the behaviour of AE sensors. Here, the coupling of a fracture mechanics based model for AE source and surface/guided wave propagation models is achieved through an integral formulation relying on the elastodynamic reciprocity principle. As a first approximation, a simple piston-like model is used to predict the sensitivity of AE sensors. Predictions computed by our simulation tool are compared to results from the literature for validation purpose.
Modeling of a Switched Reluctance Motor under Stator Winding Fault Condition
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Chen, Hao; Han, G.; Yan, Wei
2016-01-01
A new method for modeling stator winding fault with one shorted coil in a switched reluctance motor (SRM) is presented in this paper. The method is based on artificial neural network (ANN), incorporated with a simple analytical model in electromagnetic analysis to estimate the flux-linkage charac......A new method for modeling stator winding fault with one shorted coil in a switched reluctance motor (SRM) is presented in this paper. The method is based on artificial neural network (ANN), incorporated with a simple analytical model in electromagnetic analysis to estimate the flux......-linkage characteristics of SRM under the stator winding fault. The magnetic equivalent circuit method with ANN is applied to calculate the nonlinear flux-linkage characteristics under stator winding fault condition. A stator winding fault 12/8 SRM prototype system is developed to verify the effectiveness of the proposed...... method. The results for a stator winding fault with one shorted coil are obtained from the proposed method and from the experimental work on a developed prototype. It is shown that the simulation results are close to the test results....
A model of disordered zone formation in Cu3Au under cascade-producing irradiation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kapinos, V.G.; Bacon, D.J.
1995-01-01
A model to describe the disordering of ordered Cu 3 Au under irradiation is proposed. For the thermal spike phase of a displacement cascade, the processes of heat evolution and conduction in the cascade region are modelled by solving the thermal conduction equation by a discretization method for a medium that can melt and solidify under appropriate conditions. The model considers disordering to result from cascade core melting, with the final disordered zone corresponding to the largest molten zone achieved. The initial conditions for this treatment are obtained by simulation of cascades by the MARLOWE code. The contrast of disordered zones imaged in a superlattice dark-field reflection and projected on the plane parallel to the surface of a thin foil was calculated. The average size of images from hundreds of cascades created by incident Cu + ions were calculated for different ion energies and compared with experimental transmission electron microscopy data. The model is in reasonable quantitative agreement with the experimentally observed trends. (author)
PREDICTION OF BLOOD PATTERN IN S-SHAPED MODEL OF ARTERY UNDER NORMAL BLOOD PRESSURE
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mohd Azrul Hisham Mohd Adib
2013-06-01
Full Text Available Athletes are susceptible to a wide variety of traumatic and non-traumatic vascular injuries to the lower limb. This paper aims to predict the three-dimensional flow pattern of blood through an S-shaped geometrical artery model. This model has created by using Fluid Structure Interaction (FSI software. The modeling of the geometrical S-shaped artery is suitable for understanding the pattern of blood flow under constant normal blood pressure. In this study, a numerical method is used that works on the assumption that the blood is incompressible and Newtonian; thus, a laminar type of flow can be considered. The authors have compared the results with a previous study with FSI validation simulation. The validation and verification of the simulation studies is performed by comparing the maximum velocity at t = 0.4 s, because at this time, the blood accelerates rapidly. In addition, the resulting blood flow at various times, under the same boundary conditions in the S-shaped geometrical artery model, is presented. The graph shows that velocity increases linearly with time. Thus, it can be concluded that the flow of blood increases with respect to the pressure inside the body.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhang Yu; Wang Guangyi; Lu Xinmiao; Hu Yongcai; Xu Jiangtao
2016-01-01
The random telegraph signal noise in the pixel source follower MOSFET is the principle component of the noise in the CMOS image sensor under low light. In this paper, the physical and statistical model of the random telegraph signal noise in the pixel source follower based on the binomial distribution is set up. The number of electrons captured or released by the oxide traps in the unit time is described as the random variables which obey the binomial distribution. As a result, the output states and the corresponding probabilities of the first and the second samples of the correlated double sampling circuit are acquired. The standard deviation of the output states after the correlated double sampling circuit can be obtained accordingly. In the simulation section, one hundred thousand samples of the source follower MOSFET have been simulated, and the simulation results show that the proposed model has the similar statistical characteristics with the existing models under the effect of the channel length and the density of the oxide trap. Moreover, the noise histogram of the proposed model has been evaluated at different environmental temperatures. (paper)
Capozza, R.; Vanossi, A.; Benassi, A.; Tosatti, E.
2015-02-01
Electrical charging of parallel plates confining a model ionic liquid down to nanoscale distances yields a variety of charge-induced changes in the structural features of the confined film. That includes even-odd switching of the structural layering and charging-induced solidification and melting, with important changes of local ordering between and within layers, and of squeezout behavior. By means of molecular dynamics simulations, we explore this variety of phenomena in the simplest charged Lennard-Jones coarse-grained model including or excluding the effect a neutral tail giving an anisotropic shape to one of the model ions. Using these models and open conditions permitting the flow of ions in and out of the interplate gap, we simulate the liquid squeezout to obtain the distance dependent structure and forces between the plates during their adiabatic approach under load. Simulations at fixed applied force illustrate an effective electrical pumping of the ionic liquid, from a thick nearly solid film that withstands the interplate pressure for high plate charge to complete squeezout following melting near zero charge. Effective enthalpy curves obtained by integration of interplate forces versus distance show the local minima that correspond to layering and predict the switching between one minimum and another under squeezing and charging.
Theoretical modeling of mechanical homeostasis of a mammalian cell under gravity-directed vector.
Zhou, Lüwen; Zhang, Chen; Zhang, Fan; Lü, Shouqin; Sun, Shujin; Lü, Dongyuan; Long, Mian
2018-02-01
Translocation of dense nucleus along gravity vector initiates mechanical remodeling of a eukaryotic cell. In our previous experiments, we quantified the impact of gravity vector on cell remodeling by placing an MC3T3-E1 cell onto upward (U)-, downward (D)-, or edge-on (E)- orientated substrate. Our experimental data demonstrate that orientation dependence of nucleus longitudinal translocation is positively correlated with cytoskeletal (CSK) remodeling of their expressions and structures and also is associated with rearrangement of focal adhesion complex (FAC). However, the underlying mechanism how CSK network and FACs are reorganized in a mammalian cell remains unclear. In this paper, we developed a theoretical biomechanical model to integrate the mechanosensing of nucleus translocation with CSK remodeling and FAC reorganization induced by a gravity vector. The cell was simplified as a nucleated tensegrity structure in the model. The cell and CSK filaments were considered to be symmetrical. All elements of CSK filaments and cytomembrane that support the nucleus were simplified as springs. FACs were simplified as an adhesion cluster of parallel bonds with shared force. Our model proposed that gravity vector-directed translocation of the cell nucleus is mechanically balanced by CSK remodeling and FAC reorganization induced by a gravitational force. Under gravity, dense nucleus tends to translocate and exert additional compressive or stretching force on the cytoskeleton. Finally, changes of the tension force acting on talin by microfilament alter the size of FACs. Results from our model are in qualitative agreement with those from experiments.
Pozzobon, Victor; Perre, Patrick
2018-01-21
This work provides a model and the associated set of parameters allowing for microalgae population growth computation under intermittent lightning. Han's model is coupled with a simple microalgae growth model to yield a relationship between illumination and population growth. The model parameters were obtained by fitting a dataset available in literature using Particle Swarm Optimization method. In their work, authors grew microalgae in excess of nutrients under flashing conditions. Light/dark cycles used for these experimentations are quite close to those found in photobioreactor, i.e. ranging from several seconds to one minute. In this work, in addition to producing the set of parameters, Particle Swarm Optimization robustness was assessed. To do so, two different swarm initialization techniques were used, i.e. uniform and random distribution throughout the search-space. Both yielded the same results. In addition, swarm distribution analysis reveals that the swarm converges to a unique minimum. Thus, the produced set of parameters can be trustfully used to link light intensity to population growth rate. Furthermore, the set is capable to describe photodamages effects on population growth. Hence, accounting for light overexposure effect on algal growth. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
An extended car-following model to describe connected traffic dynamics under cyberattacks
Wang, Pengcheng; Yu, Guizhen; Wu, Xinkai; Qin, Hongmao; Wang, Yunpeng
2018-04-01
In this paper, the impacts of the potential cyberattacks on vehicles are modeled through an extended car-following model. To better understand the mechanism of traffic disturbance under cyberattacks, the linear and nonlinear stability analysis are conducted respectively. Particularly, linear stability analysis is performed to obtain different neutral stability conditions with various parameters; and nonlinear stability analysis is carried out by using reductive perturbation method to derive the soliton solution of the modified Korteweg de Vries equation (mKdV) near the critical point, which is used to draw coexisting stability lines. Furthermore, by applying linear and nonlinear stability analysis, traffic flow state can be divided into three states, i.e., stable, metastable and unstable states which are useful to describe shockwave dynamics and driving behaviors under cyberattacks. The theoretical results show that the proposed car-following model is capable of successfully describing the car-following behavior of connected vehicles with cyberattacks. Finally, numerical simulation using real values has confirmed the validity of theoretical analysis. The results further demonstrate our model can be used to help avoid collisions and relieve traffic congestion with cybersecurity threats.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hong Zhang
2017-01-01
Full Text Available In order to formulate water allocation schemes under uncertainties in the water resources management systems, an inexact multistage stochastic chance constrained programming (IMSCCP model is proposed. The model integrates stochastic chance constrained programming, multistage stochastic programming, and inexact stochastic programming within a general optimization framework to handle the uncertainties occurring in both constraints and objective. These uncertainties are expressed as probability distributions, interval with multiply distributed stochastic boundaries, dynamic features of the long-term water allocation plans, and so on. Compared with the existing inexact multistage stochastic programming, the IMSCCP can be used to assess more system risks and handle more complicated uncertainties in water resources management systems. The IMSCCP model is applied to a hypothetical case study of water resources management. In order to construct an approximate solution for the model, a hybrid algorithm, which incorporates stochastic simulation, back propagation neural network, and genetic algorithm, is proposed. The results show that the optimal value represents the maximal net system benefit achieved with a given confidence level under chance constraints, and the solutions provide optimal water allocation schemes to multiple users over a multiperiod planning horizon.
Holmgren, Milena; Gómez-Aparicio, Lorena; Quero, José Luis; Valladares, Fernando
2012-06-01
The combined effects of shade and drought on plant performance and the implications for species interactions are highly debated in plant ecology. Empirical evidence for positive and negative effects of shade on the performance of plants under dry conditions supports two contrasting theoretical models about the role of shade under dry conditions: the trade-off and the facilitation hypotheses. We performed a meta-analysis of field and greenhouse studies evaluating the effects of drought at two or more irradiance levels on nine response variables describing plant physiological condition, growth, and survival. We explored differences in plant response across plant functional types, ecosystem types and methodological approaches. The data were best fit using quadratic models indicating a humped-back shape response to drought along an irradiance gradient for survival, whole plant biomass, maximum photosynthetic capacity, stomatal conductance and maximal photochemical efficiency. Drought effects were ameliorated at intermediate irradiance, becoming more severe at higher or lower light levels. This general pattern was maintained when controlling for potential variations in the strength of the drought treatment among light levels. Our quantitative meta-analysis indicates that dense shade ameliorates drought especially among drought-intolerant and shade-tolerant species. Wet tropical species showed larger negative effects of drought with increasing irradiance than semiarid and cold temperate species. Non-linear responses to irradiance were stronger under field conditions than under controlled greenhouse conditions. Non-linear responses to drought along the irradiance gradient reconciliate opposing views in plant ecology, indicating that facilitation is more likely within certain range of environmental conditions, fading under deep shade, especially for drought-tolerant species.
Li, Sen; Juhász-Horváth, Linda; Pintér, László; Rounsevell, Mark D A; Harrison, Paula A
2018-05-01
Impacts of socio-economic, political and climatic change on agricultural land systems are inherently uncertain. The role of regional and local-level actors is critical in developing effective policy responses that accommodate such uncertainty in a flexible and informed way across governance levels. This study identified potential regional challenges in arable land use systems, which may arise from climate and socio-economic change for two counties in western Hungary: Veszprém and Tolna. An empirically-grounded, agent-based model was developed from an extensive farmer household survey about local land use practices. The model was used to project future patterns of arable land use under four localised, stakeholder-driven scenarios of plausible future socio-economic and climate change. The results show strong differences in farmers' behaviour and current agricultural land use patterns between the two regions, highlighting the need to implement focused policy at the regional level. For instance, policy that encourages local food security may need to support improvements in the capacity of farmers to adapt to physical constraints in Veszprém and farmer access to social capital and environmental awareness in Tolna. It is further suggested that the two regions will experience different challenges to adaptation under possible future conditions (up to 2100). For example, Veszprém was projected to have increased fallow land under a scenario with high inequality, ineffective institutions and higher-end climate change, implying risks of land abandonment. By contrast, Tolna was projected to have a considerable decline in major cereals under a scenario assuming a de-globalising future with moderate climate change, inferring challenges to local food self-sufficiency. The study provides insight into how socio-economic and physical factors influence the selection of crop rotation plans by farmers in western Hungary and how farmer behaviour may affect future risks to agricultural
Radioactive waste combustion-vitrification under arc plasma: thermal and dynamic modelling
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Barthelemy, B.
2003-06-01
This thesis concerns the thermal and dynamic modelling for a combustion/vitrification process of surrogate radioactive waste under transferred arc plasma. The writer presents the confinement processes for radioactive waste using arc plasma and the different software used to model theses processes. This is followed by a description of our experimental equipment including a plasma arc reactor and an inductive system allowing the homogenization of glass temperature. A combustion/vitrification test is described. Thermal and material balances were discussed. The temperature fields of plasma arc and the glass frit conductivity are measured. Finally, the writer describes and clarifies the equations solved for the simulations of the electrically plasma arc and the glass melting including the thin layer of glass frit coating the crucible cold walls. The modelling results are presented in the form of spatial distribution of temperature, velocity and voluminal power... (author)
Radioactive waste combustion / vitrification under arc plasma: thermal and dynamic modelling
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Barthelemy, B.
2003-01-01
This thesis concerns the thermal and dynamic modelling for a combustion/vitrification process of surrogate radioactive waste under transferred arc plasma. The writer presents the confinement processes for radioactive waste using arc plasma and the different software used to model theses processes. This is followed by a description of our experimental equipment including a plasma arc reactor and an inductive system allowing the homogenization of glass temperature. A combustion/vitrification test is described. Thermal and material balances were discussed. The temperature fields of plasma arc and the glass frit conductivity are measured. Finally, the writer describes and clarifies the equations solved for the simulations of the electrically plasma arc and the glass melting including the thin layer of glass frit coating the crucible cold walls. The modelling results are presented in the form of spatial distribution of temperature, velocity and volume power... (author)
A Neural Network Model to Learn Multiple Tasks under Dynamic Environments
Tsumori, Kenji; Ozawa, Seiichi
When environments are dynamically changed for agents, the knowledge acquired in an environment might be useless in future. In such dynamic environments, agents should be able to not only acquire new knowledge but also modify old knowledge in learning. However, modifying all knowledge acquired before is not efficient because the knowledge once acquired may be useful again when similar environment reappears and some knowledge can be shared among different environments. To learn efficiently in such environments, we propose a neural network model that consists of the following modules: resource allocating network, long-term & short-term memory, and environment change detector. We evaluate the model under a class of dynamic environments where multiple function approximation tasks are sequentially given. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model possesses stable incremental learning, accurate environmental change detection, proper association and recall of old knowledge, and efficient knowledge transfer.
Worst-Case Investment and Reinsurance Optimization for an Insurer under Model Uncertainty
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xiangbo Meng
2016-01-01
Full Text Available In this paper, we study optimal investment-reinsurance strategies for an insurer who faces model uncertainty. The insurer is allowed to acquire new business and invest into a financial market which consists of one risk-free asset and one risky asset whose price process is modeled by a Geometric Brownian motion. Minimizing the expected quadratic distance of the terminal wealth to a given benchmark under the “worst-case” scenario, we obtain the closed-form expressions of optimal strategies and the corresponding value function by solving the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB equation. Numerical examples are presented to show the impact of model parameters on the optimal strategies.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kamran Forghani
2012-10-01
Full Text Available In this paper, a new mathematical model in cellular manufacturing systems (CMSs has been presented. In order to increase the performance of manufacturing system, the production quantity of parts has been considered as a decision variable, i.e. each part can be produced and outsourced, simultaneously. This extension would be minimized the unused capacity of machines. The exceptional elements (EEs are taken into account and would be totally outsourced to the external supplier in order to remove intercellular material handling cost. The problem has been formulated as a mixed-integer programming to minimize the sum of manufacturing variable costs under budget, machines capacity and demand constraints. Also, to evaluate advantages of the model, several illustrative numerical examples have been provided to compare the performance of the proposed model with the available classical approaches in the literature.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kwong, S. [National Nuclear Laboratory (United Kingdom); Jivkov, A.P. [Research Centre for Radwaste and Decommissioning and Modelling and Simulation Centre, University of Manchester (United Kingdom)
2012-07-01
Deep geologic disposal of high activity and long-lived radioactive waste is gaining increasing support in many countries, where suitable low permeability geological formation in combination with engineered barriers are used to provide long term waste contaminant and minimise the impacts to the environment and risk to the biosphere. This modelling study examines the solute transport in fractured media under low flow velocities that are relevant to a deep geological environment. In particular, reactive solute transport through fractured media is studied using a 2-D model, that considers advection and diffusion, to explore the coupled effects of kinetic and equilibrium chemical processes. The effects of water velocity in the fracture, matrix porosity and diffusion on solute transport are investigated and discussed. Some illustrative modelled results are presented to demonstrate the use of the model to examine the effects of media degradation on solute transport, under the influences of hydrogeological (diffusion dominant) and microbially mediated chemical processes. The challenges facing the prediction of long term degradation such as cracks evolution, interaction and coalescence are highlighted. The potential of a novel microstructure informed modelling approach to account for these effects is discussed, particularly with respect to investigating multiple phenomena impact on material performance. The GRM code is used to examine the effects of media degradation for a geological waste disposal package, under the combined hydrogeological (diffusion dominant) and chemical effects in low groundwater flow conditions that are typical of deep geological disposal systems. An illustrative reactive transport modelling application demonstrates the use of the code to examine the interplay of kinetic controlled biogeochemical reactive processes with advective and diffusive transport, under the influence of media degradation. The initial model results are encouraging which show the
Katsura, Yasufumi; Attaviriyanupap, Pathom; Kataoka, Yoshihiko
In this research, the fundamental premises for deregulation of the electric power industry are reevaluated. The authors develop a simple model to represent wholesale electricity market with highly congested network. The model is developed by simplifying the power system and market in New York ISO based on available data of New York ISO in 2004 with some estimation. Based on the developed model and construction cost data from the past, the economic impact of transmission line addition on market participants and the impact of deregulation on power plant additions under market with transmission congestion are studied. Simulation results show that the market signals may fail to facilitate proper capacity additions and results in the undesirable over-construction and insufficient-construction cycle of capacity addition.
Modeling of Cr(VI) Bioreduction Under Fermentative and Denitrifying Conditions
Molins, S.; Steefel, C.; Yang, L.; Beller, H. R.
2011-12-01
The mechanisms of bioreductive immobilization of Cr(VI) were investigated by reactive transport modeling of a set of flow-through column experiments performed using natural Hanford 100H aquifer sediment. The columns were continuously eluted with 5 μM Cr(VI), 5 mM lactate as the electron donor, and selected electron acceptors (tested individually). Here we focus on the two separate experimental conditions that showed the most removal of Cr(VI) from solution: fermentation and denitrification. In each case, a network of enzymatic and abiotic reaction pathways was considered to interpret the rate of chromate reduction. The model included biomass growth and decay, and thermodynamic limitations on reaction rates, and was constrained by effluent concentrations measured by IC and ICP-MS and additional information from bacterial isolates from column effluent. Under denitrifying conditions, Cr(VI) reduction was modeled as co-metabolic with nitrate reduction based on experimental observations and previous studies on a denitrifying bacterium derived from the Hanford 100H aquifer. The reactive transport model results supported this interpretation of the reaction mechanism and were used to quantify the efficiency of the process. The models results also suggest that biomass growth likely relied on a nitrogen source other than ammonium (e.g. nitrate). Under fermentative conditions and based on cell suspension studies performed on a bacterial isolate from the columns, the model assumes that Cr(VI) reduction is carried out directly by fermentative bacteria that convert lactate into acetate and propionate. The evolution to complete lactate fermentation and Cr(VI) reduction took place over a week's time and simulations were used to determine an estimate for a lower limit of the rate of chromate reduction by calibration with the flow-through column experimental results. In spite of sulfate being added to these columns, sulfate reduction proceeded at a slow rate and was not well
An Indirect Simulation-Optimization Model for Determining Optimal TMDL Allocation under Uncertainty
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Feng Zhou
2015-11-01
Full Text Available An indirect simulation-optimization model framework with enhanced computational efficiency and risk-based decision-making capability was developed to determine optimal total maximum daily load (TMDL allocation under uncertainty. To convert the traditional direct simulation-optimization model into our indirect equivalent model framework, we proposed a two-step strategy: (1 application of interval regression equations derived by a Bayesian recursive regression tree (BRRT v2 algorithm, which approximates the original hydrodynamic and water-quality simulation models and accurately quantifies the inherent nonlinear relationship between nutrient load reductions and the credible interval of algal biomass with a given confidence interval; and (2 incorporation of the calibrated interval regression equations into an uncertain optimization framework, which is further converted to our indirect equivalent framework by the enhanced-interval linear programming (EILP method and provides approximate-optimal solutions at various risk levels. The proposed strategy was applied to the Swift Creek Reservoir’s nutrient TMDL allocation (Chesterfield County, VA to identify the minimum nutrient load allocations required from eight sub-watersheds to ensure compliance with user-specified chlorophyll criteria. Our results indicated that the BRRT-EILP model could identify critical sub-watersheds faster than the traditional one and requires lower reduction of nutrient loadings compared to traditional stochastic simulation and trial-and-error (TAE approaches. This suggests that our proposed framework performs better in optimal TMDL development compared to the traditional simulation-optimization models and provides extreme and non-extreme tradeoff analysis under uncertainty for risk-based decision making.
Macknick, J.; Miara, A.; Brinkman, G.; Ibanez, E.; Newmark, R. L.
2014-12-01
The reliability of the power sector is highly vulnerable to variability in the availability and temperature of water resources, including those that might result from potential climatic changes or from competition from other users. In the past decade, power plants throughout the United States have had to shut down or curtail generation due to a lack of available water or from elevated water temperatures. These disruptions in power plant performance can have negative impacts on energy security and can be costly to address. Analysis of water-related vulnerabilities requires modeling capabilities with high spatial and temporal resolution. This research provides an innovative approach to energy-water modeling by evaluating the costs and reliability of a power sector region under policy and climate change scenarios that affect water resource availability and temperatures. This work utilizes results from a spatially distributed river water temperature model coupled with a thermoelectric power plant model to provide inputs into an electricity production cost model that operates on a high spatial and temporal resolution. The regional transmission organization ISO-New England, which includes six New England states and over 32 Gigawatts of power capacity, is utilized as a case study. Hydrological data and power plant operations are analyzed over an eleven year period from 2000-2010 under four scenarios that include climate impacts on water resources and air temperatures as well as strict interpretations of regulations that can affect power plant operations due to elevated water temperatures. Results of these model linkages show how the power sector's reliability and economic performance can be affected by changes in water temperatures and water availability. The effective reliability and capacity value of thermal electric generators are quantified and discussed in the context of current as well as potential future water resource characteristics.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Morlang, M.M.; Feltus, M.A.
1996-01-01
The use of neutron radiography for visualization of fluid flow through flow visualization modules has been very successful. Current experiments at the Penn State Breazeale Reactor serve to verify the mixing and transport of soluble boron under natural flow conditions as would be experienced in a pressurized water reactor. Different flow geometries have been modeled including holes, slots, and baffles. Flow modules are constructed of aluminum box material 1 1/2 inches by 4 inches in varying lengths. An experimental flow system was built which pumps fluid to a head tank and natural circulation flow occurs from the head tank through the flow visualization module to be radio-graphed. The entire flow system is mounted on a portable assembly to allow placement of the flow visualization module in front of the neutron beam port. A neutron-transparent fluor-inert fluid is used to simulate water at different densities. Boron is modeled by gadolinium oxide powder as a tracer element, which is placed in a mixing assembly and injected into the system a remotely operated electric valve, once the reactor is at power. The entire sequence is recorded on real-time video. Still photographs are made frame-by-frame from the video tape. Computers are used to digitally enhance the video and still photographs. The data obtained from the enhancement will be used for verification of simple geometry predictions using the TRAC and RELAP thermal-hydraulic codes. A detailed model of a reactor vessel inlet plenum, downcomer region, flow distribution area and core inlet is being constructed to model the APGOO plenum. Successive radiography experiments of each section of the model under identical conditions will provide a complete vessel / core model for comparison with the thermal-hydraulic codes
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Feltus, M.A.; Morlang, G.M.
1996-01-01
The use of neutron radiography for visualization of fluid flow through flow visualization modules has been very successful. Current experiments at the Penn State Breazeale Reactor serve to verify the mixing and transport of soluble boron under natural flow conditions as would be experienced in a pressurized water reactor. Different flow geometries have been modeled including holes, slots, and baffles. Flow modules are constructed of aluminum box material 1 1/2 inches by 4 inches in varying lengths. An experimental flow system was built which pumps fluid to a head tank and natural circulation flow occurs from the head tank through the flow visualization module to be radiographed. The entire flow system is mounted on a portable assembly to allow placement of the flow visualization module in front of the neutron beam port. A neutron-transparent fluorinert fluid is used to simulate water at different densities. Boron is modeled by gadolinium oxide powder as a tracer element, which is placed in a mixing assembly and injected into the system by remote operated electric valve, once the reactor is at power. The entire sequence is recorded on real-time video. Still photographs are made frame-by-frame from the video tape. Computers are used to digitally enhance the video and still photographs. The data obtained from the enhancement will be used for verification of simple geometry predictions using the TRAC and RELAP thermal-hydraulic codes. A detailed model of a reactor vessel inlet plenum, downcomer region, flow distribution area and core inlet is being constructed to model the AP600 plenum. Successive radiography experiments of each section of the model under identical conditions will provide a complete vessel/core model for comparison with the thermal-hydraulic codes
Lázár, Attila N; Clarke, Derek; Adams, Helen; Akanda, Abdur Razzaque; Szabo, Sylvia; Nicholls, Robert J; Matthews, Zoe; Begum, Dilruba; Saleh, Abul Fazal M; Abedin, Md Anwarul; Payo, Andres; Streatfield, Peter Kim; Hutton, Craig; Mondal, M Shahjahan; Moslehuddin, Abu Zofar Md
2015-06-01
Coastal Bangladesh experiences significant poverty and hazards today and is highly vulnerable to climate and environmental change over the coming decades. Coastal stakeholders are demanding information to assist in the decision making processes, including simulation models to explore how different interventions, under different plausible future socio-economic and environmental scenarios, could alleviate environmental risks and promote development. Many existing simulation models neglect the complex interdependencies between the socio-economic and environmental system of coastal Bangladesh. Here an integrated approach has been proposed to develop a simulation model to support agriculture and poverty-based analysis and decision-making in coastal Bangladesh. In particular, we show how a simulation model of farmer's livelihoods at the household level can be achieved. An extended version of the FAO's CROPWAT agriculture model has been integrated with a downscaled regional demography model to simulate net agriculture profit. This is used together with a household income-expenses balance and a loans logical tree to simulate the evolution of food security indicators and poverty levels. Modelling identifies salinity and temperature stress as limiting factors to crop productivity and fertilisation due to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations as a reinforcing factor. The crop simulation results compare well with expected outcomes but also reveal some unexpected behaviours. For example, under current model assumptions, temperature is more important than salinity for crop production. The agriculture-based livelihood and poverty simulations highlight the critical significance of debt through informal and formal loans set at such levels as to persistently undermine the well-being of agriculture-dependent households. Simulations also indicate that progressive approaches to agriculture (i.e. diversification) might not provide the clear economic benefit from the perspective of
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Engelhardt, G.; Urquidi-Macdonald, M.; Sikora, J.; Macdonald, D.D.
1995-01-01
A predictive and self-consistent mathematical model has been developed to describe the localized corrosion in steam generators. The model recognizes that the internal and external environment are coupled by the need to conserve charge in the system. Thus, solution of Laplace's equation for the external environment (outside the crevice) provides the boundary condition for the electric potential at the crevice mouth, which is needed for solving the system of mass transfer equations for the internal environment (inside the crevice). Mass transfer by diffusion, ion migration, and convection was considered. Heat and momentum transfer equations are solved simultaneously, with the mass balance equation for each species and the condition of electroneutrality inside the cavity being considered. The model takes into account the porosity and tortuosity in the corrosion product deposit in the crevice. The homogeneous chemical reactions (hydrolysis of the products of the anodic reaction and the autoprotolysis of water) are included in the model. The model, in this preliminary form predicts the solution chemistry, potential drop, and temperature distribution inside the crevice. An order of magnitude estimate of the crevice corrosion rate also obtained. At this point, the model predicts only the steady state solution, but it is recognized that a steady state may not exist under normal conditions
Modelling CO concentrations under free-flowing and congested traffic conditions in Ireland
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Broderick, B; Budd, U; Misstear, B [Dept. of Civil, Structural and Environmental Engineering, Trinity Coll. Dublin (Ireland); Ceburnis, D; Jennings, S G [Dept. of Experimental Physics, National Univ. of Ireland, Galway (Ireland)
2004-07-01
The assessment and management of air quality is required under the EU Air Quality Framework Directive and its Daughter Directives (CEC, 1996, 1999, 2000) which specify the limits for certain pollutants, including carbon monoxide (CO). Air quality modelling is used to predict the future impact of road improvements, often as part of an Environmental Impact Assessment. The U.S. National Commission on Air Quality found in 1981 that such models may typically overpredict or underpredict actual concentrations by a factor of two. Even twenty years later the U.K. Department of the Environment Transport and the Regions (UK DETR, 2001) concurred that ''If the prediction of an annual mean concentration lies within {+-}50% of the measurement, a user would not consider that the model has behaved badly.'' The Daughter Directive (CEC, 2000) concerned with CO allows 50% uncertainty in modelling of the eight-hour average concentration. An assessment of CALINE4 was performed for two contrasting sites: a free-flowing motorway and a periodically-congested roundabout. Air quality was continuously monitored over a one-year period at both sites. The data collected was compared with model predictions based on local and regional meteorological data, site geometry and traffic volumes. The modelled and monitored results were compared through both graphical and statistical analysis (Broderick B.M. et al., 2003). (orig.)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Csorba Szilveszter
2014-12-01
Full Text Available Mathematical models are effective tools for evaluating the impact of predicted climate change on agricultural production, but it is difficult to test their applicability to future weather conditions. We applied the SWAP model to assess its applicability to climate conditions, differing from those, for which the model was developed. We used a database obtained from a winter wheat drought stress experiment. Winter wheat was grown in six soil columns, three having optimal water supply (NS, while three were kept under drought-stressed conditions (S. The SWAP model was successfully calibrated against measured values of potential evapotranspiration (PET, potential evaporation (PE and total amount of water (TSW in the soil columns. The Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (N-S for TWS for the stressed columns was 0.92. For the NS treatment, we applied temporally variable soil hydraulic properties because of soil consolidation caused by regular irrigation. This approach improved the N-S values for the wetting-drying cycle from -1.77 to 0.54. We concluded that the model could be used for assessing the effects of climate change on soil water regime. Our results indicate that soil water balance studies should put more focus on the time variability of structuredependent soil properties.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kajimoto, Mitsuhiro
2008-01-01
Radionuclide behavior during various severe accident conditions has been addressed as one of the important issues to discuss environmental safety in nuclear power plants. The present paper deals with the development of analytical models and their validations for the agglomeration of multiple-component aerosol and spray removal that controls source terms to the environment of both aerosols and gaseous radionuclides during recirculation mode operation in a containment system for a light water reactor. As for aerosol agglomeration, the single collision kernel model that can cover all types of two-body collision of aerosol was developed. In addition, the dynamic model that can treat aerosol and vapor transfer leading to the equilibrium condition under the containment spray operation was developed. The validations of the present models for multiple-component aerosol growth by agglomeration were performed by comparisons with Nuclear Safety Pilot Plant (NSPP) experiments at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and AB experiments at Hanford Engineering National Laboratory (HEDL). In addition, the spray removal models were applied to the analysis of containment spray experiment (CSE) at HEDL. The results calculated by the models showed good agreements with experimental results. (author)
Gasification under CO2–Steam Mixture: Kinetic Model Study Based on Shared Active Sites
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Xia Liu
2017-11-01
Full Text Available In this work, char gasification of two coals (i.e., Shenfu bituminous coal and Zunyi anthracite and a petroleum coke under a steam and CO2 mixture (steam/CO2 partial pressures, 0.025–0.075 MPa; total pressures, 0.100 MPa and CO2/steam chemisorption of char samples were conducted in a Thermogravimetric Analyzer (TGA. Two conventional kinetic models exhibited difficulties in exactly fitting the experimental data of char–steam–CO2 gasification. Hence, a modified model based on Langmuir–Hinshelwood model and assuming that char–CO2 and char–steam reactions partially shared active sites was proposed and had indicated high accuracy for estimating the interactions in char–steam–CO2 reaction. Moreover, it was found that two new model parameters (respectively characterized as the amount ratio of shared active sites to total active sites in char–CO2 and char–steam reactions in the modified model hardly varied with gasification conditions, and the results of chemisorption indicate that these two new model parameters mainly depended on the carbon active sites in char samples.
Skinfold creep under load of caliper. Linear visco- and poroelastic model simulations.
Nowak, Joanna; Nowak, Bartosz; Kaczmarek, Mariusz
2015-01-01
This paper addresses the diagnostic idea proposed in [11] to measure the parameter called rate of creep of axillary fold of tissue using modified Harpenden skinfold caliper in order to distinguish normal and edematous tissue. Our simulations are intended to help understanding the creep phenomenon and creep rate parameter as a sensitive indicator of edema existence. The parametric analysis shows the tissue behavior under the external load as well as its sensitivity to changes of crucial hydro-mechanical tissue parameters, e.g., permeability or stiffness. The linear viscoelastic and poroelastic models of normal (single phase) and oedematous tissue (twophase: swelled tissue with excess of interstitial fluid) implemented in COMSOL Multiphysics environment are used. Simulations are performed within the range of small strains for a simplified fold geometry, material characterization and boundary conditions. The predicted creep is the result of viscosity (viscoelastic model) or pore fluid displacement (poroelastic model) in tissue. The tissue deformations, interstitial fluid pressure as well as interstitial fluid velocity are discussed in parametric analysis with respect to elasticity modulus, relaxation time or permeability of tissue. The creep rate determined within the models of tissue is compared and referred to the diagnostic idea in [11]. The results obtained from the two linear models of subcutaneous tissue indicate that the form of creep curve and the creep rate are sensitive to material parameters which characterize the tissue. However, the adopted modelling assumptions point to a limited applicability of the creep rate as the discriminant of oedema.
Seepage Flow Model and Deformation Properties of Coastal Deep Foundation Pit under Tidal Influence
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Shu-chen Li
2018-01-01
Full Text Available As the coastal region is the most developed region in China, an increasing number of engineering projects are under construction in it in recent years. However, the quality of these projects is significantly affected by groundwater, which is influenced by tidal variations. Therefore, the regional groundwater dynamic characteristics under tidal impact and the spatiotemporal evolution of the seepage field must be considered in the construction of the projects. Then, Boussinesq function was introduced into the research to deduce the seepage equation under tidal influence for the coastal area. To determine the spatiotemporal evolution of the deep foundation pit seepage field and the coastal seepage field evolution model, numerical calculations based on changes in the tidal water level and seepage equation were performed using MATLAB. According to the developed model, the influence of the seepage field on the foundation pit supporting structure in the excavation process was analyzed through numerical simulations. The results of this research could be considered in design and engineering practice.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Massih, Ali R. [Quantum Technologies AB, Uppsala Science Park (Sweden)
2007-02-15
Extensive range of experiments has been conducted in the past to quantitatively identify and understand the behaviour of fuel rod under loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) conditions in light water reactors (LWRs). The obtained experimental data provide the basis for the current emergency core cooling system acceptance criteria under LOCA conditions for LWRs. The results of recent experiments indicate that the cladding alloy composition and high burnup effects influence LOCA acceptance criteria margins. In this report, we review some past important and recent experimental results. We first discuss the background to acceptance criteria for LOCA, namely, clad embrittlement phenomenology, clad embrittlement criteria (limitations on maximum clad oxidation and peak clad temperature) and the experimental bases for the criteria. Two broad kinds of test have been carried out under LOCA conditions: (i) Separate effect tests to study clad oxidation, clad deformation and rupture, and zirconium alloy allotropic phase transition during LOCA. (ii) Integral LOCA tests, in which the entire LOCA sequence is simulated on a single rod or a multi-rod array in a fuel bundle, in laboratory or in a tests and results are discussed and empirical correlations deduced from these tests and quantitative models are conferred. In particular, the impact of niobium in zirconium base clad and hydrogen content of the clad on allotropic phase transformation during LOCA and also the burst stress are discussed. We review some recent LOCA integral test results with emphasis on thermal shock tests. Finally, suggestions for modelling and further evaluation of certain experimental results are made.
Chan, Trista Wai Sze; Ahn, Woo-Young; Bates, John E; Busemeyer, Jerome R; Guillaume, Sebastien; Redgrave, Graham W; Danner, Unna N; Courtet, Philippe
2014-03-01
This study examined the underlying processes of decision-making impairments in individuals with anorexia nervosa (AN) and bulimia nervosa (BN). We deconstructed their performance on the widely used decision task, the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) into cognitive, motivational, and response processes using cognitive modeling analysis. We hypothesized that IGT performance would be characterized by impaired memory functions and heightened punishment sensitivity in AN, and by elevated sensitivity to reward as opposed to punishment in BN. We analyzed trial-by-trial data of IGT obtained from 224 individuals: 94 individuals with AN, 63 with BN, and 67 healthy comparison individuals (HC). The prospect valence learning model was used to assess cognitive, motivational, and response processes underlying IGT performance. Individuals with AN showed marginally impaired IGT performance compared to HC. Their performance was characterized by impairments in memory functions. Individuals with BN showed significantly impaired IGT performance compared to HC. They showed greater relative sensitivity to gains as opposed to losses than HC. Memory functions in AN were positively correlated with body mass index. This study identified differential impairments underlying IGT performance in AN and BN. Findings suggest that impaired decision making in AN might involve impaired memory functions. Impaired decision making in BN might involve altered reward and punishment sensitivity. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Leckebusch, G. C.; Ulbrich, U.
2003-04-01
More than any changes of the climate system mean state conditions, the development of extreme events may influence social, economic and legal aspects of our society. This linkage results from the impact of extreme climate events (natural hazards) on environmental systems which again are directly linked to human activities. Prominent examples from the recent past are the record breaking rainfall amounts of August 2002 in central Europe which produced widespread floodings or the wind storm Lothar of December 1999. Within the MICE (Modelling the Impact of Climate Extremes) project framework an assessment of the impact of changes in extremes will be done. The investigation is carried out for several different impact categories as agriculture, energy use and property damage. Focus is laid on the diagnostics of GCM and RCM simulations under different climate change scenarios. In this study we concentrate on extreme windstorms and their relationship to cyclone activity in the global HADCM3 as well as in the regional HADRM3 model under two climate change scenarios (SRESA2a, B2a). In order to identify cyclones we used an objective algorithm from Murry and Simmonds which was widely tested under several different conditions. A slight increase in the occurrence of systems is identified above northern parts of central Europe for both scenarios. For more severe systems (core pressure Spain) a shift to more deep cyclones connected with an increasing number of strong wind events is found.
A collaborative computer auditing system under SOA-based conceptual model
Cong, Qiushi; Huang, Zuoming; Hu, Jibing
2013-03-01
Some of the current challenges of computer auditing are the obstacles to retrieving, converting and translating data from different database schema. During the last few years, there are many data exchange standards under continuous development such as Extensible Business Reporting Language (XBRL). These XML document standards can be used for data exchange among companies, financial institutions, and audit firms. However, for many companies, it is still expensive and time-consuming to translate and provide XML messages with commercial application packages, because it is complicated and laborious to search and transform data from thousands of tables in the ERP databases. How to transfer transaction documents for supporting continuous auditing or real time auditing between audit firms and their client companies is a important topic. In this paper, a collaborative computer auditing system under SOA-based conceptual model is proposed. By utilizing the widely used XML document standards and existing data transformation applications developed by different companies and software venders, we can wrap these application as commercial web services that will be easy implemented under the forthcoming application environments: service-oriented architecture (SOA). Under the SOA environments, the multiagency mechanism will help the maturity and popularity of data assurance service over the Internet. By the wrapping of data transformation components with heterogeneous databases or platforms, it will create new component markets composed by many software vendors and assurance service companies to provide data assurance services for audit firms, regulators or third parties.
Chao, Anne; Jost, Lou; Hsieh, T C; Ma, K H; Sherwin, William B; Rollins, Lee Ann
2015-01-01
Shannon entropy H and related measures are increasingly used in molecular ecology and population genetics because (1) unlike measures based on heterozygosity or allele number, these measures weigh alleles in proportion to their population fraction, thus capturing a previously-ignored aspect of allele frequency distributions that may be important in many applications; (2) these measures connect directly to the rich predictive mathematics of information theory; (3) Shannon entropy is completely additive and has an explicitly hierarchical nature; and (4) Shannon entropy-based differentiation measures obey strong monotonicity properties that heterozygosity-based measures lack. We derive simple new expressions for the expected values of the Shannon entropy of the equilibrium allele distribution at a neutral locus in a single isolated population under two models of mutation: the infinite allele model and the stepwise mutation model. Surprisingly, this complex stochastic system for each model has an entropy expressable as a simple combination of well-known mathematical functions. Moreover, entropy- and heterozygosity-based measures for each model are linked by simple relationships that are shown by simulations to be approximately valid even far from equilibrium. We also identify a bridge between the two models of mutation. We apply our approach to subdivided populations which follow the finite island model, obtaining the Shannon entropy of the equilibrium allele distributions of the subpopulations and of the total population. We also derive the expected mutual information and normalized mutual information ("Shannon differentiation") between subpopulations at equilibrium, and identify the model parameters that determine them. We apply our measures to data from the common starling (Sturnus vulgaris) in Australia. Our measures provide a test for neutrality that is robust to violations of equilibrium assumptions, as verified on real world data from starlings.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Anne Chao
Full Text Available Shannon entropy H and related measures are increasingly used in molecular ecology and population genetics because (1 unlike measures based on heterozygosity or allele number, these measures weigh alleles in proportion to their population fraction, thus capturing a previously-ignored aspect of allele frequency distributions that may be important in many applications; (2 these measures connect directly to the rich predictive mathematics of information theory; (3 Shannon entropy is completely additive and has an explicitly hierarchical nature; and (4 Shannon entropy-based differentiation measures obey strong monotonicity properties that heterozygosity-based measures lack. We derive simple new expressions for the expected values of the Shannon entropy of the equilibrium allele distribution at a neutral locus in a single isolated population under two models of mutation: the infinite allele model and the stepwise mutation model. Surprisingly, this complex stochastic system for each model has an entropy expressable as a simple combination of well-known mathematical functions. Moreover, entropy- and heterozygosity-based measures for each model are linked by simple relationships that are shown by simulations to be approximately valid even far from equilibrium. We also identify a bridge between the two models of mutation. We apply our approach to subdivided populations which follow the finite island model, obtaining the Shannon entropy of the equilibrium allele distributions of the subpopulations and of the total population. We also derive the expected mutual information and normalized mutual information ("Shannon differentiation" between subpopulations at equilibrium, and identify the model parameters that determine them. We apply our measures to data from the common starling (Sturnus vulgaris in Australia. Our measures provide a test for neutrality that is robust to violations of equilibrium assumptions, as verified on real world data from starlings.
Aggregate modeling of fast-acting demand response and control under real-time pricing
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chassin, David P.; Rondeau, Daniel
2016-01-01
Highlights: • Demand elasticity for fast-acting demand response load under real-time pricing. • Validated first-principles logistic demand curve matches random utility model. • Logistic demand curve suitable for diversified aggregate loads market-based transactive control systems. - Abstract: This paper develops and assesses the performance of a short-term demand response (DR) model for utility load control with applications to resource planning and control design. Long term response models tend to underestimate short-term demand response when induced by prices. This has two important consequences. First, planning studies tend to undervalue DR and often overlook its benefits in utility demand management program development. Second, when DR is not overlooked, the open-loop DR control gain estimate may be too low. This can result in overuse of load resources, control instability and excessive price volatility. Our objective is therefore to develop a more accurate and better performing short-term demand response model. We construct the model from first principles about the nature of thermostatic load control and show that the resulting formulation corresponds exactly to the Random Utility Model employed in economics to study consumer choice. The model is tested against empirical data collected from field demonstration projects and is shown to perform better than alternative models commonly used to forecast demand in normal operating conditions. The results suggest that (1) existing utility tariffs appear to be inadequate to incentivize demand response, particularly in the presence of high renewables, and (2) existing load control systems run the risk of becoming unstable if utilities close the loop on real-time prices.
Aspects of a generic photovoltaic model examined under the German grid code for medium voltage
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Theologitis, Ioannis-Thomas; Troester, Eckehard; Ackermann, Thomas [Energynautics GmbH, Langen (Germany)
2011-07-01
The increasing peneration of photovoltaic power systems into the power grid has attached attention to the issue of ensuring the smooth absorbance of the solar energy, while securing the normal and steady operation of the grid as well. Nowadays, the PV systems must meet a number of technical requirements to address this issue. This paper investigates a generic grid-connected photovoltaic model that was developed by DIgSILENT and is part of the library in the new version of PowerFactory v.14.1 software that is used in this study. The model has a nominal rated peak power of 0.5 MVA and a designed power factor cos{phi}0.95. The study focuses on the description of the model, its control system and its ability to reflect important requirements that a grid-connected PV system should have by January 2011 according to the German grid code for medium voltage. The model undergoes various simulations. Static voltage support, active power control and dynamic voltage support - Fault Ride Through (FRT) is examined. The results show that the generic model is capable for active power reduction under over-frequency occasions and FRT behavior in cases of voltage dips. The reactive power control that is added in the model improves the control system and makes the model capable for static voltage support in sudden active power injection changes at the point of common coupling. Beside the simplifications and shortcomings of this generic model, basic requirements of the modern PV systems can be addressed. Further improvements could make it more complete and applicable for more detailed studies. (orig.)
Learning Physics-based Models in Hydrology under the Framework of Generative Adversarial Networks
Karpatne, A.; Kumar, V.
2017-12-01
Generative adversarial networks (GANs), that have been highly successful in a number of applications involving large volumes of labeled and unlabeled data such as computer vision, offer huge potential for modeling the dynamics of physical processes that have been traditionally studied using simulations of physics-based models. While conventional physics-based models use labeled samples of input/output variables for model calibration (estimating the right parametric forms of relationships between variables) or data assimilation (identifying the most likely sequence of system states in dynamical systems), there is a greater opportunity to explore the full power of machine learning (ML) methods (e.g, GANs) for studying physical processes currently suffering from large knowledge gaps, e.g. ground-water flow. However, success in this endeavor requires a principled way of combining the strengths of ML methods with physics-based numerical models that are founded on a wealth of scientific knowledge. This is especially important in scientific domains like hydrology where the number of data samples is small (relative to Internet-scale applications such as image recognition where machine learning methods has found great success), and the physical relationships are complex (high-dimensional) and non-stationary. We will present a series of methods for guiding the learning of GANs using physics-based models, e.g., by using the outputs of physics-based models as input data to the generator-learner framework, and by using physics-based models as generators trained using validation data in the adversarial learning framework. These methods are being developed under the broad paradigm of theory-guided data science that we are developing to integrate scientific knowledge with data science methods for accelerating scientific discovery.
Dynamics of Coarse-grained Model of Filled Rubber Composite under Deformation
Hagita, Katsumi; Ueno, Shinichi; Bito, Yasumasa; Takano, Hiroshi; Doi, Masao; Morita, Hiroshi
2010-03-01
We presented a result of coarse-grained Molecular Dynamics simulation of filled polymer melts with Sulfur-crosslink under deformation based on the Kremer-Grest Model. Because all polymer chains are connected to one network gel, the size of simulation box under periodic boundary conditions (PBC) is set to about 33nm. We put 4 fillers, 80 polymer chains of 1024 particles, and many crosslink into the PBC box. One filler consists of 1280 particles of the C1280 fullerene structure. A repulsive force from the center of the filler is applied to the particles of C1280 in order to make a sphere whose diameter is about 15nm. Some patterns of distribution of the fillers are examined. The stress-strain curves estimated by applying a deformation to the system in simulations qualitatively agree with those in experiments. It is successful to show hysteresis on the S-S curve between elongation / release of the filled rubber.
Numerical modelling of closed-cell aluminium foam under dynamic loading
Hazell, Paul; Kader, M. A.; Islam, M. A.; Escobedo, J. P.; Saadatfar, M.
2015-06-01
Closed-cell aluminium foams are extensively used in aerospace and automobile industries. The understanding of their behaviour under impact loading conditions is extremely important since impact problems are directly related to design of these engineering structures. This research investigates the response of a closed-cell aluminium foam (CYMAT) subjected to dynamic loading using the finite element software ABAQUS/explicit. The aim of this research is to numerically investigate the material and structural properties of closed-cell aluminium foam under impact loading conditions with interest in shock propagation and its effects on cell wall deformation. A μ-CT based 3D foam geometry is developed to simulate the local cell collapse behaviours. A number of numerical techniques are applied for modelling the crush behaviour of aluminium foam to obtain the more accurate results. The simulation results are compared with experimental data. Comparison of the results shows a good correlation between the experimental results and numerical predictions.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zied Hajej
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Due to the expensive production equipment, many manufacturers usually lease production equipment with a warranty period during a finite leasing horizon, rather than purchasing them. The lease contract contains the possibility of obtaining an extended warranty for a given additional cost. In this paper, based on the forecasting production/maintenance optimization problem, we develop a mathematical model to study the lease contract with basic and extended warranty based on win-win relationship between the lessee and the lessor. The influence of the production rates in the equipment degradation consequently on the total cost by each side during the finite leasing horizon is stated in order to determine a theoretical condition under which a compromise-pricing zone exists under different possibilities of maintenance policies.
Decision making under time pressure, modeled in a prospect theory framework
Young, Diana L.; Goodie, Adam S.; Hall, Daniel B.; Wu, Eric
2012-01-01
The current research examines the effects of time pressure on decision behavior based on a prospect theory framework. In Experiments 1 and 2, participants estimated certainty equivalents for binary gains-only bets in the presence or absence of time pressure. In Experiment 3, participants assessed comparable bets that were framed as losses. Data were modeled to establish psychological mechanisms underlying decision behavior. In Experiments 1 and 2, time pressure led to increased risk attractiveness, but no significant differences emerged in either probability discriminability or outcome utility. In Experiment 3, time pressure reduced probability discriminability, which was coupled with severe risk-seeking behavior for both conditions in the domain of losses. No significant effects of control over outcomes were observed. Results provide qualified support for theories that suggest increased risk-seeking for gains under time pressure. PMID:22711977
Pricing Exotic Options under a High-Order Markovian Regime Switching Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Wai-Ki Ching
2007-10-01
Full Text Available We consider the pricing of exotic options when the price dynamics of the underlying risky asset are governed by a discrete-time Markovian regime-switching process driven by an observable, high-order Markov model (HOMM. We assume that the market interest rate, the drift, and the volatility of the underlying risky asset's return switch over time according to the states of the HOMM, which are interpreted as the states of an economy. We will then employ the well-known tool in actuarial science, namely, the Esscher transform to determine an equivalent martingale measure for option valuation. Moreover, we will also investigate the impact of the high-order effect of the states of the economy on the prices of some path-dependent exotic options, such as Asian options, lookback options, and barrier options.
Decision making under time pressure, modeled in a prospect theory framework.
Young, Diana L; Goodie, Adam S; Hall, Daniel B; Wu, Eric
2012-07-01
The current research examines the effects of time pressure on decision behavior based on a prospect theory framework. In Experiments 1 and 2, participants estimated certainty equivalents for binary gains-only bets in the presence or absence of time pressure. In Experiment 3, participants assessed comparable bets that were framed as losses. Data were modeled to establish psychological mechanisms underlying decision behavior. In Experiments 1 and 2, time pressure led to increased risk attractiveness, but no significant differences emerged in either probability discriminability or outcome utility. In Experiment 3, time pressure reduced probability discriminability, which was coupled with severe risk-seeking behavior for both conditions in the domain of losses. No significant effects of control over outcomes were observed. Results provide qualified support for theories that suggest increased risk-seeking for gains under time pressure.
Hinz, Marty; Stein, Alvin; Uncini, Thomas
2011-01-01
Spot baseline urinary monoamine assays have been used in medicine for over 50 years as a screening test for monoamine-secreting tumors, such as pheochromocytoma and carcinoid syndrome. In these disease states, when the result of a spot baseline monoamine assay is above the specific value set by the laboratory, it is an indication to obtain a 24-hour urine sample to make a definitive diagnosis. There are no defined applications where spot baseline urinary monoamine assays can be used to diagnose disease or other states directly. No peer-reviewed published original research exists which demonstrates that these assays are valid in the treatment of individual patients in the clinical setting. Since 2001, urinary monoamine assay sales have been promoted for numerous applications under the "spot baseline urinary neurotransmitter testing marketing model". There is no published peer-reviewed original research that defines the scientific foundation upon which the claims for these assays are made. On the contrary, several articles have been published that discredit various aspects of the model. To fill the void, this manuscript is a comprehensive review of the scientific foundation and claims put forth by laboratories selling urinary monoamine assays under the spot baseline urinary neurotransmitter testing marketing model.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Abdoulghafour, Halidi
2012-01-01
The main purpose of this thesis was to characterize and to model the hydrodynamic and thermochemical processes leading to the alteration of the wellbore cement materials under borehole conditions. Percolation experiments were performed on fractured cement samples under CO 2 storage conditions (60 C and 10 MPa). Injection flow rate was dictated by the fracture aperture of each sample. CO 2 enriched brine was flowed along the fracture aperture, and permeability changes as well as chemical evolution of major cations were continuously acquired during the experiment time. Reaction paths developed by the alteration of the cement were characterized using microtomography and ESEM images. The experiments conducted using samples presenting large fracture apertures during 5 h showed that permeability was maintained constant during the experiment time. Three reacted layers were displaying by the alteration of portlandite and CSH. Long term experiment (26 h) conducted with large initial fracture aperture showed a decrease of the permeability after 15 hours of CO 2 exposure. Otherwise, experiments performed on samples presenting narrow apertures indicated the conversion of portlandite and CSH to calcite leading to the permeability reduction and the fracture clogging. Assemblages of phases and chemical changes were modelled using GEMS-PSI speciation code. We studied also using a coupled transport-reactive model the conditions leading to the cement alteration and the formation of associated layers. (author)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Junlian Gao
2018-05-01
Full Text Available Across the world, human activity is approaching planetary boundaries. In northwest China, in particular, the coal industry and agriculture are competing for key limited inputs of land and water. In this situation, the traditional approach to planning the development of each sector independently fails to deliver sustainable solutions, as solutions made in sectorial ‘silos’ are often suboptimal for the entire economy. We propose a spatially detailed cost-minimizing model for coal and agricultural production in a region under constraints on land and water availability. We apply the model to the case study of Shanxi province, China. We show how such an integrated optimization, which takes maximum advantage of the spatial heterogeneity in resource abundance, could help resolve the conflicts around the water–food–energy (WFE nexus and assist in its management. We quantify the production-possibility frontiers under different water-availability scenarios and demonstrate that in water-scarce regions, like Shanxi, the production capacity and corresponding production solutions are highly sensitive to water constraints. The shadow prices estimated in the model could be the basis for intelligent differentiated water pricing, not only to enable the water-resource transfer between agriculture and the coal industry, and across regions, but also to achieve cost-effective WFE management.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Juan Carlos Pacheco-Paez
2017-03-01
Full Text Available The so-called Novikov power plant model has been widely used to represent some actual power plants, such as nuclear electric power generators. In the present work, a thermo-economic study of a Novikov power plant model is presented under three different regimes of performance: maximum power (MP, maximum ecological function (ME and maximum efficient power (EP. In this study, different heat transfer laws are used: The Newton’s law of cooling, the Stefan–Boltzmann radiation law, the Dulong–Petit’s law and another phenomenological heat transfer law. For the thermoeconomic optimization of power plant models, a benefit function defined as the quotient of an objective function and the total economical costs is commonly employed. Usually, the total costs take into account two contributions: a cost related to the investment and another stemming from the fuel consumption. In this work, a new cost associated to the maintenance of the power plant is also considered. With these new total costs, it is shown that under the maximum ecological function regime the plant improves its economic and energetic performance in comparison with the other two regimes. The methodology used in this paper is within the context of finite-time thermodynamics.
Climatic impacts of fresh water hosing under Last Glacial Maximum conditions: a multi-model study
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. Kageyama
2013-04-01
Full Text Available Fresh water hosing simulations, in which a fresh water flux is imposed in the North Atlantic to force fluctuations of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, have been routinely performed, first to study the climatic signature of different states of this circulation, then, under present or future conditions, to investigate the potential impact of a partial melting of the Greenland ice sheet. The most compelling examples of climatic changes potentially related to AMOC abrupt variations, however, are found in high resolution palaeo-records from around the globe for the last glacial period. To study those more specifically, more and more fresh water hosing experiments have been performed under glacial conditions in the recent years. Here we compare an ensemble constituted by 11 such simulations run with 6 different climate models. All simulations follow a slightly different design, but are sufficiently close in their design to be compared. They all study the impact of a fresh water hosing imposed in the extra-tropical North Atlantic. Common features in the model responses to hosing are the cooling over the North Atlantic, extending along the sub-tropical gyre in the tropical North Atlantic, the southward shift of the Atlantic ITCZ and the weakening of the African and Indian monsoons. On the other hand, the expression of the bipolar see-saw, i.e., warming in the Southern Hemisphere, differs from model to model, with some restricting it to the South Atlantic and specific regions of the southern ocean while others simulate a widespread southern ocean warming. The relationships between the features common to most models, i.e., climate changes over the north and tropical Atlantic, African and Asian monsoon regions, are further quantified. These suggest a tight correlation between the temperature and precipitation changes over the extra-tropical North Atlantic, but different pathways for the teleconnections between the AMOC/North Atlantic region
Lin, Yai-Tin; Kalhan, Ashish Chetan; Lin, Yng-Tzer Joseph; Kalhan, Tosha Ashish; Chou, Chein-Chin; Gao, Xiao Li; Hsu, Chin-Ying Stephen
2018-05-08
Oral rehabilitation under general anaesthesia (GA), commonly employed to treat high caries-risk children, has been associated with high economic and individual/family burden, besides high post-GA caries recurrence rates. As there is no caries prediction model available for paediatric GA patients, this study was performed to build caries risk assessment/prediction models using pre-GA data and to explore mid-term prognostic factors for early identification of high-risk children prone to caries relapse post-GA oral rehabilitation. Ninety-two children were identified and recruited with parental consent before oral rehabilitation under GA. Biopsychosocial data collection at baseline and the 6-month follow-up were conducted using questionnaire (Q), microbiological assessment (M) and clinical examination (C). The prediction models constructed using data collected from Q, Q + M and Q + M + C demonstrated an accuracy of 72%, 78% and 82%, respectively. Furthermore, of the 83 (90.2%) patients recalled 6 months after GA intervention, recurrent caries was identified in 54.2%, together with reduced bacterial counts, lower plaque index and increased percentage of children toothbrushing for themselves (all P < 0.05). Additionally, meal-time and toothbrushing duration were shown, through bivariate analyses, to be significant prognostic determinants for caries recurrence (both P < 0.05). Risk assessment/prediction models built using pre-GA data may be promising in identifying high-risk children prone to post-GA caries recurrence, although future internal and external validation of predictive models is warranted. © 2018 FDI World Dental Federation.
Resseguier, V.; Memin, E.; Chapron, B.; Fox-Kemper, B.
2017-12-01
In order to better observe and predict geophysical flows, ensemble-based data assimilation methods are of high importance. In such methods, an ensemble of random realizations represents the variety of the simulated flow's likely behaviors. For this purpose, randomness needs to be introduced in a suitable way and physically-based stochastic subgrid parametrizations are promising paths. This talk will propose a new kind of such a parametrization referred to as modeling under location uncertainty. The fluid velocity is decomposed into a resolved large-scale component and an aliased small-scale one. The first component is possibly random but time-correlated whereas the second is white-in-time but spatially-correlated and possibly inhomogeneous and anisotropic. With such a velocity, the material derivative of any - possibly active - tracer is modified. Three new terms appear: a correction of the large-scale advection, a multiplicative noise and a possibly heterogeneous and anisotropic diffusion. This parameterization naturally ensures attractive properties such as energy conservation for each realization. Additionally, this stochastic material derivative and the associated Reynolds' transport theorem offer a systematic method to derive stochastic models. In particular, we will discuss the consequences of the Quasi-Geostrophic assumptions in our framework. Depending on the turbulence amount, different models with different physical behaviors are obtained. Under strong turbulence assumptions, a simplified diagnosis of frontolysis and frontogenesis at the surface of the ocean is possible in this framework. A Surface Quasi-Geostrophic (SQG) model with a weaker noise influence has also been simulated. A single realization better represents small scales than a deterministic SQG model at the same resolution. Moreover, an ensemble accurately predicts extreme events, bifurcations as well as the amplitudes and the positions of the simulation errors. Figure 1 highlights this last
Pla-Sentís, Ildefonso
2014-05-01
Salt-affected soils, both saline and sodic, my develop both under dryland and irrigated conditions, affecting negatively the physical and chemical soil properties, the crop production and the animal and human health.Among the development processes of salt-affected soils, the processes of sodification have been generally received less attention and is less understood than the development of saline soils. Although in both of them, hydrological processes are involved in their development, in the case of sodic soils we have to consider some additional chemical and physicochemical reactions, making more difficult their modeling and prediction. In this contribution we present two case studies: one related to the development of sodic soils in the lowlands of the Argentina Pampas, under dryland conditions and sub-humid temperate climate, with pastures for cattle production; the other deals with the development of sodic soils in the Colombia Cauca Valley, under irrigated conditions and tropical sub-humid climate, in lands used for sugarcane cropping dedicated to sugar and ethanol production. In both cases the development of sodicity in the surface soil is mainly related to the effects of the composition and level of groundwater, affected in the case of Argentina Pampas by the off-site changes in dryland use and management in the upper zones and by the drainage conditions in the lowlands, and in the case of the Cauca Valley, by the on-site irrigation and drainage management in lands with sugarcane. There is shown how the model SALSODIMAR, developed by the main author, based on the balance of water and soluble componentes of both the irrigation water and groundwater under different water and land management conditions, may be adapted for the diagnosis and prediction of both problems, and for the selection of alternatives for their management and amelioration.
The modeling of fuel rod behaviour under RIA conditions in the code DYN3D
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rohde, U.
2001-01-01
A description of the fuel rod behaviour and heat transfer model used in the code DYN3D for nuclear reactor core dynamic simulations is given. Besides the solution of heat conduction equations in fuel and cladding, the model comprises a detailed description of heat transfer in the gas gap by conduction, radiation and fuel-cladding contact. The gas gap behaviour is modeled in a mechanistic way taking into account transient changes of the gas gap parameters based on given conditions for the initial state. Thermal, elastic and plastic deformations of fuel and cladding are taken into account within 1D approximation. A creeping law for time-dependent estimation of plastic deformations is implemented. Metal-water reaction of the cladding material in the high temperature region is considered. The cladding-coolant heat transfer regime map covers the region from one-phase liquid convection to dispersed flow with superheated steam. Special emphasis is put on taking into account the impact of thermodynamic non-equilibrium conditions on heat transfer. For the validation of the model, experiments on fuel rod behaviour during RIAs carried out in Russian and Japanese pulsed research reactors with shortened probes of fresh fuel rods are calculated. Comparisons between calculated and measured results are shown and discussed. It is shown, that the fuel rod behaviour is significantly influenced by plastic deformation of the cladding, post crisis heat transfer with sub-cooled liquid conditions and heat release from the metal-water reaction. Numerical studies concerning the fuel rod behaviour under RIA conditions in power reactors are reported on. It is demonstrated, that the fuel rod behaviour at high pressures and flow rates in power reactors is different from the behaviour under atmospheric pressure and stagnant flow conditions in the experiments. The mechanisms of fuel rod failure for fresh and burned fuel reported from the literature can be qualitatively reproduced by the DYN3D
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jones, M.R.
1988-06-01
Micromechanistic models are presented which aim to predict plane strain ductile initiation toughness, tearing resistance and notched bar fracture strains in pressure vessel steels under monotonically increasing tensile (mode 1) loading. The models for initiation toughness and tearing resistance recognize that ductile fracture proceeds by the growth and linkage of voids with the crack-tip. The models are shown to predict the trend of initiation toughness with inclusion spacing/size ratio and can bound the available experimental data. The model for crack growth can reproduce the tearing resistance of a pressure vessel steel up to and just beyond crack growth initiation. The fracture strains of notched bars pulled in tension are shown to correspond to the achievement of a critical volume fraction of voids. This criterion is combined with the true stress - true strain history of a material point ahead of a blunting crack-tip to predict the initiation toughness. An attempt was made to predict the fracture strains of notched tensile bars by adopting a model which predicts the onset of a shear localization phenomenon. Fracture strains of the correct order are computed only if a ''secondary'' void nucleation event at carbide precipitates is taken into account. (author)
Ecological forecasting under climatic data uncertainty: a case study in phenological modeling
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cook, Benjamin I; Terando, Adam; Steiner, Allison
2010-01-01
Forecasting ecological responses to climate change represents a challenge to the ecological community because models are often site-specific and climate data are lacking at appropriate spatial and temporal resolutions. We use a case study approach to demonstrate uncertainties in ecological predictions related to the driving climatic input data. We use observational records, derived observational datasets (e.g. interpolated observations from local weather stations and gridded data products) and output from general circulation models (GCM) in conjunction with site based phenology models to estimate the first flowering date (FFD) for three woody flowering species. Using derived observations over the modern time period, we find that cold biases and temperature trends lead to biased FFD simulations for all three species. Observational datasets resolved at the daily time step result in better FFD predictions compared to simulations using monthly resolution. Simulations using output from an ensemble of GCM and regional climate models over modern and future time periods have large intra-ensemble spreads and tend to underestimate observed FFD trends for the modern period. These results indicate that certain forcing datasets may be missing key features needed to generate accurate hindcasts at the local scale (e.g. trends, temporal resolution), and that standard modeling techniques (e.g. downscaling, ensemble mean, etc) may not necessarily improve the prediction of the ecological response. Studies attempting to simulate local ecological processes under modern and future climate forcing therefore need to quantify and propagate the climate data uncertainties in their simulations.
Modeling of creep-fatigue interaction of zirconium α under cyclic loading at 200 C
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Vogel, C.
1996-04-01
The present work deals with mechanical behaviour of zirconium alpha at 200 deg. C and crack initiation prediction methods, particularly when loading conditions lead to interaction of fatigue and creep phenomena. A classical approach used to study interaction between cyclic effects and constant loading effects does not give easy understanding of experimental results. Therefore, a new approach has been developed, which allow to determine a number of cycles for crack initiation for complex structures under large loading conditions. To study influence of fatigue and creep interaction on crack initiation, a model was chosen, using a scalar variable, giving representation of the material deterioration state. The model uses a non linear cumulating effect between the damage corresponding to cyclic loads and the damage correlated to time influence. The model belongs to uncoupled approaches between damage and behaviour, which is described here by a two inelastic deformations model. This mechanical behaviour model is chosen because it allows distinction between a plastic and a viscous part in inelastic flow. Cyclic damage is function of stress amplitude and mean stress. For the peculiar sensitivity of the material to creep, a special parameter bas been defined to be critical toward creep damage. It is the kinematic term associated to state variables describing this type of hardening in the viscous mechanism. (author)
Thermal conductivity model for powdered materials under vacuum based on experimental studies
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
N. Sakatani
2017-01-01
Full Text Available The thermal conductivity of powdered media is characteristically very low in vacuum, and is effectively dependent on many parameters of their constituent particles and packing structure. Understanding of the heat transfer mechanism within powder layers in vacuum and theoretical modeling of their thermal conductivity are of great importance for several scientific and engineering problems. In this paper, we report the results of systematic thermal conductivity measurements of powdered media of varied particle size, porosity, and temperature under vacuum using glass beads as a model material. Based on the obtained experimental data, we investigated the heat transfer mechanism in powdered media in detail, and constructed a new theoretical thermal conductivity model for the vacuum condition. This model enables an absolute thermal conductivity to be calculated for a powder with the input of a set of powder parameters including particle size, porosity, temperature, and compressional stress or gravity, and vice versa. Our model is expected to be a competent tool for several scientific and engineering fields of study related to powders, such as the thermal infrared observation of air-less planetary bodies, thermal evolution of planetesimals, and performance of thermal insulators and heat storage powders.
A Procedure for Modeling Photovoltaic Arrays under Any Configuration and Shading Conditions
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Daniel Gonzalez Montoya
2018-03-01
Full Text Available Photovoltaic (PV arrays can be connected following regular or irregular connection patterns to form regular configurations (e.g., series-parallel, total cross-tied, bridge-linked, etc. or irregular configurations, respectively. Several reported works propose models for a single configuration; hence, making the evaluation of arrays with different configuration is a considerable time-consuming task. Moreover, if the PV array adopts an irregular configuration, the classical models cannot be used for its analysis. This paper proposes a modeling procedure for PV arrays connected in any configuration and operating under uniform or partial shading conditions. The procedure divides the array into smaller arrays, named sub-arrays, which can be independently solved. The modeling procedure selects the mesh current solution or the node voltage solution depending on the topology of each sub-array. Therefore, the proposed approach analyzes the PV array using the least number of nonlinear equations. The proposed solution is validated through simulation and experimental results, which demonstrate the proposed model capacity to reproduce the electrical behavior of PV arrays connected in any configuration.
Modal analysis of human body vibration model for Indian subjects under sitting posture.
Singh, Ishbir; Nigam, S P; Saran, V H
2015-01-01
Need and importance of modelling in human body vibration research studies are well established. The study of biodynamic responses of human beings can be classified into experimental and analytical methods. In the past few decades, plenty of mathematical models have been developed based on the diverse field measurements to describe the biodynamic responses of human beings. In this paper, a complete study on lumped parameter model derived from 50th percentile anthropometric data for a seated 54- kg Indian male subject without backrest support under free un-damped conditions has been carried out considering human body segments to be of ellipsoidal shape. Conventional lumped parameter modelling considers the human body as several rigid masses interconnected by springs and dampers. In this study, concept of mass of interconnecting springs has been incorporated and eigenvalues thus obtained are found to be closer to the values reported in the literature. Results obtained clearly establish decoupling of vertical and fore-and-aft oscillations. The mathematical modelling of human body vibration studies help in validating the experimental investigations for ride comfort of a sitting subject. This study clearly establishes the decoupling of vertical and fore-and-aft vibrations and helps in better understanding of possible human response to single and multi-axial excitations.
Qin, Xiaosheng; Huang, Guohe; Liu, Lei
2010-01-01
A genetic-algorithm-aided stochastic optimization (GASO) model was developed in this study for supporting regional air quality management under uncertainty. The model incorporated genetic algorithm (GA) and Monte Carlo simulation techniques into a general stochastic chance-constrained programming (CCP) framework and allowed uncertainties in simulation and optimization model parameters to be considered explicitly in the design of least-cost strategies. GA was used to seek the optimal solution of the management model by progressively evaluating the performances of individual solutions. Monte Carlo simulation was used to check the feasibility of each solution. A management problem in terms of regional air pollution control was studied to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method. Results of the case study indicated the proposed model could effectively communicate uncertainties into the optimization process and generate solutions that contained a spectrum of potential air pollutant treatment options with risk and cost information. Decision alternatives could be obtained by analyzing tradeoffs between the overall pollutant treatment cost and the system-failure risk due to inherent uncertainties.
Row of fuel assemblies analysis under seismic loading: Modelling and experimental validation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ricciardi, Guillaume; Bellizzi, Sergio; Collard, Bruno; Cochelin, Bruno
2009-01-01
The aim of this study was to develop a numerical model for predicting the impact behaviour at fuel assembly level of a whole reactor core under seismic loading conditions. This model was based on a porous medium approach accounting for the dynamics of both the fluid and structure, which interact. The fluid is studied in the whole reactor core domain and each fuel assembly is modelled in the form of a deformable porous medium with a nonlinear constitutive law. The contact between fuel assemblies is modelled in the form of elastic stops, so that the impact forces can be assessed. Simulations were performed to predict the dynamics of a six fuel assemblies row immersed in stagnant water and the whole apparatus was placed on a shaking table mimicking seismic loading conditions. The maximum values of the impact forces predicted by the model were in good agreement with the experimental data. A Proper Orthogonal Decomposition analysis was performed on the numerical data to analyse the mechanical behaviour of the fluid and structure more closely.
Modeling size effects on fatigue life of a zirconium-based bulk metallic glass under bending
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yuan Tao; Wang Gongyao; Feng Qingming; Liaw, Peter K.; Yokoyama, Yoshihiko; Inoue, Akihisa
2013-01-01
A size effect on the fatigue-life cycles of a Zr 50 Cu 30 Al 10 Ni 10 (at.%) bulk metallic glass has been observed in the four-point-bending fatigue experiment. Under the same bending-stress condition, large-sized samples tend to exhibit longer fatigue lives than small-sized samples. This size effect on the fatigue life cannot be satisfactorily explained by the flaw-based Weibull theories. Based on the experimental results, this study explores possible approaches to modeling the size effects on the bending-fatigue life of bulk metallic glasses, and proposes two fatigue-life models based on the Weibull distribution. The first model assumes, empirically, log-linear effects of the sample thickness on the Weibull parameters. The second model incorporates the mechanistic knowledge of the fatigue behavior of metallic glasses, and assumes that the shear-band density, instead of the flaw density, has significant influence on the bending fatigue-life cycles. Promising predictive results provide evidence of the potential validity of the models and their assumptions.
A baseline-free procedure for transformation models under interval censorship.
Gu, Ming Gao; Sun, Liuquan; Zuo, Guoxin
2005-12-01
An important property of Cox regression model is that the estimation of regression parameters using the partial likelihood procedure does not depend on its baseline survival function. We call such a procedure baseline-free. Using marginal likelihood, we show that an baseline-free procedure can be derived for a class of general transformation models under interval censoring framework. The baseline-free procedure results a simplified and stable computation algorithm for some complicated and important semiparametric models, such as frailty models and heteroscedastic hazard/rank regression models, where the estimation procedures so far available involve estimation of the infinite dimensional baseline function. A detailed computational algorithm using Markov Chain Monte Carlo stochastic approximation is presented. The proposed procedure is demonstrated through extensive simulation studies, showing the validity of asymptotic consistency and normality. We also illustrate the procedure with a real data set from a study of breast cancer. A heuristic argument showing that the score function is a mean zero martingale is provided.
Pirkis, Jane; Burgess, Philip; Kohn, Fay; Morley, Belinda; Blashki, Grant; Naccarella, Lucio
2006-08-01
The Access to Allied Psychological Services component of Australia's Better Outcomes in Mental Health Care program enables eligible general practitioners to refer consumers to allied health professionals for affordable, evidence-based mental health care, via 108 projects conducted by Divisions of General Practice. The current study profiled the models of service delivery across these projects, and examined whether particular models were associated with differential levels of access to services. We found: 76% of projects were retaining their allied health professionals under contract, 28% via direct employment, and 7% some other way; Allied health professionals were providing services from GPs' rooms in 63% of projects, from their own rooms in 63%, from a third location in 42%; and The referral mechanism of choice was direct referral in 51% of projects, a voucher system in 27%, a brokerage system in 24%, and a register system in 25%. Many of these models were being used in combination. No model was predictive of differential levels of access, suggesting that the approach of adapting models to the local context is proving successful.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ramin, Elham; Sin, Gürkan; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen
2014-01-01
Current research focuses on predicting and mitigating the impacts of high hydraulic loadings on centralized wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) under wet-weather conditions. The maximum permissible inflow to WWTPs depends not only on the settleability of activated sludge in secondary settling tanks...... (SSTs) but also on the hydraulic behaviour of SSTs. The present study investigates the impacts of ideal and non-ideal flow (dry and wet weather) and settling (good settling and bulking) boundary conditions on the sensitivity of WWTP model outputs to uncertainties intrinsic to the one-dimensional (1-D...... of settling parameters to the total variance of the key WWTP process outputs significantly depends on the influent flow and settling conditions. The magnitude of the impact is found to vary, depending on which type of 1-D SST model is used. Therefore, we identify and recommend potential parameter subsets...
Sou, Si Nga; Jedrzejewski, Philip M; Lee, Ken; Sellick, Christopher; Polizzi, Karen M; Kontoravdi, Cleo
2017-07-01
Despite the positive effects of mild hypothermic conditions on monoclonal antibody (mAb) productivity (q mAb ) during mammalian cell culture, the impact of reduced culture temperature on mAb Fc-glycosylation and the mechanism behind changes in the glycan composition are not fully established. The lack of knowledge about the regulation of dynamic intracellular processes under mild hypothermia restricts bioprocess optimization. To address this issue, a mathematical model that quantitatively describes Chinese hamster ovary (CHO) cell behavior and metabolism, mAb synthesis and mAb N-linked glycosylation profile before and after the induction of mild hypothermia is constructed. Results from this study show that the model is capable of representing experimental results well in all of the aspects mentioned above, including the N-linked glycosylation profile of mAb produced under mild hypothermia. Most importantly, comparison between model simulation results for different culture temperatures suggests the reduced rates of nucleotide sugar donor production and galactosyltransferase (GalT) expression to be critical contributing factors that determine the variation in Fc-glycan profiles between physiological and mild hypothermic conditions in stable CHO transfectants. This is then confirmed using experimental measurements of GalT expression levels, thereby closing the loop between the experimental and the computational system. The identification of bottlenecks within CHO cell metabolism under mild hypothermic conditions will aid bioprocess optimization, for example, by tailoring feeding strategies to improve NSD production, or manipulating the expression of specific glycosyltransferases through cell line engineering. Biotechnol. Bioeng. 2017;114: 1570-1582. © 2016 The Authors. Biotechnology and Bioengineering Published by Wiley Periodicals Inc. © 2016 The Authors. Biotechnology and Bioengineering Published by Wiley Periodicals Inc.
Matsumoto, Tomotaka
2015-11-24
Recent studies suggest the existence of a stochasticity in gene expression (SGE) in many organisms, and its non-negligible effect on their phenotype and fitness. To date, however, how SGE affects the key parameters of population genetics are not well understood. SGE can increase the phenotypic variation and act as a load for individuals, if they are at the adaptive optimum in a stable environment. On the other hand, part of the phenotypic variation caused by SGE might become advantageous if individuals at the adaptive optimum become genetically less-adaptive, for example due to an environmental change. Furthermore, SGE of unimportant genes might have little or no fitness consequences. Thus, SGE can be advantageous, disadvantageous, or selectively neutral depending on its context. In addition, there might be a genetic basis that regulates magnitude of SGE, which is often referred to as “modifier genes,” but little is known about the conditions under which such an SGE-modifier gene evolves. In the present study, we conducted individual-based computer simulations to examine these conditions in a diploid model. In the simulations, we considered a single locus that determines organismal fitness for simplicity, and that SGE on the locus creates fitness variation in a stochastic manner. We also considered another locus that modifies the magnitude of SGE. Our results suggested that SGE was always deleterious in stable environments and increased the fixation probability of deleterious mutations in this model. Even under frequently changing environmental conditions, only very strong natural selection made SGE adaptive. These results suggest that the evolution of SGE-modifier genes requires strict balance among the strength of natural selection, magnitude of SGE, and frequency of environmental changes. However, the degree of dominance affected the condition under which SGE becomes advantageous, indicating a better opportunity for the evolution of SGE in different genetic
Modelling the effectiveness of grass buffer strips in managing muddy floods under a changing climate
Mullan, Donal; Vandaele, Karel; Boardman, John; Meneely, John; Crossley, Laura H.
2016-10-01
Muddy floods occur when rainfall generates runoff on agricultural land, detaching and transporting sediment into the surrounding natural and built environment. In the Belgian Loess Belt, muddy floods occur regularly and lead to considerable economic costs associated with damage to property and infrastructure. Mitigation measures designed to manage the problem have been tested in a pilot area within Flanders and were found to be cost-effective within three years. This study assesses whether these mitigation measures will remain effective under a changing climate. To test this, the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model was used to examine muddy flooding diagnostics (precipitation, runoff, soil loss and sediment yield) for a case study hillslope in Flanders where grass buffer strips are currently used as a mitigation measure. The model was run for present day conditions and then under 33 future site-specific climate scenarios. These future scenarios were generated from three earth system models driven by four representative concentration pathways and downscaled using quantile mapping and the weather generator CLIGEN. Results reveal that under the majority of future scenarios, muddy flooding diagnostics are projected to increase, mostly as a consequence of large scale precipitation events rather than mean changes. The magnitude of muddy flood events for a given return period is also generally projected to increase. These findings indicate that present day mitigation measures may have a reduced capacity to manage muddy flooding given the changes imposed by a warming climate with an enhanced hydrological cycle. Revisions to the design of existing mitigation measures within existing policy frameworks are considered the most effective way to account for the impacts of climate change in future mitigation planning.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dong Sun Lee
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Two mechanistic microbial growth models (Huang’s model and model of Baranyi and Roberts given in differential and integrated equation forms were compared in predicting the microbial growth and shelf life under dynamic temperature storage and distribution conditions. Literatures consistently reporting the microbial growth data under constant and changing temperature conditions were selected to obtain the primary model parameters, set up the secondary models, and apply them to predict the microbial growth and shelf life under fluctuating temperatures. When evaluated by general estimation behavior, bias factor, accuracy factor, and root-mean-square error, Huang’s model was comparable to Baranyi and Roberts’ model in the capability to estimate microbial growth under dynamic temperature conditions. Its simple form of single differential equation incorporating directly the growth rate and lag time may work as an advantage to be used in online shelf life estimation by using the electronic device.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Xu, Xijun; Chen, Chuan; Wang, Aijie; Guo, Wanqian; Zhou, Xu [State Key Laboratory of Urban Water Resource and Environment, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150090 (China); Lee, Duu-Jong, E-mail: djlee@ntu.edu.tw [State Key Laboratory of Urban Water Resource and Environment, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150090 (China); Department of Chemical Engineering, National Taiwan University, Taipei 106, Taiwan (China); Department of Chemical Engineering, National Taiwan University of Science and Technology, Taipei 106, Taiwan (China); Ren, Nanqi, E-mail: rnq@hit.edu.cn [State Key Laboratory of Urban Water Resource and Environment, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150090 (China); Chang, Jo-Shu [Research Center for Energy Technology and Strategy, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan (China)
2014-01-15
Graphical abstract: Model evaluation applied to case study 1: (A-G) S{sup 2−}, NO{sub 3}{sup −}-N, NO{sub 2}{sup −}-N, and Ac{sup −}-C profiles under initial sulfide concentrations of 156.2 (A), 539 (B), 964 (C), 1490 (D), 342.7 (E), 718 (F), and 1140.7 (G) mg L{sup −1}. The solid line represents simulated result and scatter represents experimental result. -- Highlights: • This work developed a mathematical model for DSR process. • Kinetics of sulfur–nitrogen–carbon and interactions between denitrifiers were studied. • Kinetic parameters of the model were estimated via data fitting. • The model described kinetic behaviors of DSR processes over wide parametric range. -- Abstract: Simultaneous removal of sulfide (S{sup 2−}), nitrate (NO{sub 3}{sup −}) and acetate (Ac{sup −}) under denitrifying sulfide removal process (DSR) is a novel biological wastewater treatment process. This work developed a mathematical model to describe the kinetic behavior of sulfur–nitrogen–carbon and interactions between autotrophic denitrifiers and heterotrophic denitrifiers. The kinetic parameters of the model were estimated via data fitting considering the effects of initial S{sup 2−} concentration, S{sup 2−}/NO{sub 3}{sup −}-N ratio and Ac{sup −}-C/NO{sub 3}{sup −}-N ratio. Simulation supported that the heterotrophic denitratation step (NO{sub 3}{sup −} reduction to NO{sub 2}{sup −}) was inhibited by S{sup 2−} compared with the denitritation step (NO{sub 2}{sup −} reduction to N{sub 2}). Also, the S{sup 2−} oxidation by autotrophic denitrifiers was shown two times lower in rate with NO{sub 2}{sup −} as electron acceptor than that with NO{sub 3}{sup −} as electron acceptor. NO{sub 3}{sup −} reduction by autotrophic denitrifiers occurs 3–10 times slower when S{sup 0} participates as final electron donor compared to the S{sup 2−}-driven pathway. Model simulation on continuous-flow DSR reactor suggested that the adjustment of
Kiesewetter, G.; Borken-Kleefeld, J.; Schöpp, W.; Heyes, C.; Thunis, P.; Bessagnet, B.; Terrenoire, E.; Gsella, A.; Amann, M.
2014-01-01
NO2 concentrations at the street level are a major concern for urban air quality in Europe and have been regulated under the EU Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution. Despite the legal requirements, limit values are exceeded at many monitoring stations with little or no improvement in recent years. In order to assess the effects of future emission control regulations on roadside NO2 concentrations, a downscaling module has been implemented in the GAINS integrated assessment model. The module follows a hybrid approach based on atmospheric dispersion calculations and observations from the AirBase European air quality database that are used to estimate site-specific parameters. Pollutant concentrations at every monitoring site with sufficient data coverage are disaggregated into contributions from regional background, urban increment, and local roadside increment. The future evolution of each contribution is assessed with a model of the appropriate scale: 28 × 28 km grid based on the EMEP Model for the regional background, 7 × 7 km urban increment based on the CHIMERE Chemistry Transport Model, and a chemical box model for the roadside increment. Thus, different emission scenarios and control options for long-range transport as well as regional and local emissions can be analysed. Observed concentrations and historical trends are well captured, in particular the differing NO2 and total NOx = NO + NO2 trends. Altogether, more than 1950 air quality monitoring stations in the EU are covered by the model, including more than 400 traffic stations and 70% of the critical stations. Together with its well-established bottom-up emission and dispersion calculation scheme, GAINS is thus able to bridge the scales from European-wide policies to impacts in street canyons. As an application of the model, we assess the evolution of attainment of NO2 limit values under current legislation until 2030. Strong improvements are expected with the introduction of the Euro 6 emission standard
Mühlinghaus, C.; Scholz, D.; Mangini, A.
2009-04-01
To reconstruct past variations in Earth's climate, a variety of climate archives are studied. During the last decades stalagmites came into focus due to their long, continuous growth and absolute dating techniques. In this study a numerical model was developed, which calculates variations in temperature and precipitation during the growth period of stalagmites grown under isotopic disequilibrium conditions using the isotope profiles both along the growth axis and individual growth layers as well as the growth depth relation. The model is based on the inversion and combination of existing models (Dreybrodt 1999, Kaufmann et al. 2004, Mühlinghaus et al. 2007, Scholz et al. 2008, Mühlinghaus et al. 2008b) and incorporates important parameters describing the cave and the overlying soil. Beside the dependence on temperature and water supply it depends on the isotopic composition of the drip water, the pCO2 pressure of the soil and the cave atmosphere as well as on the mixing coefficient, which describes mixing between the impinging drop and the existing solution layer. To determine the characteristics of temperature and precipitation, in a first step all other parameters are assumed to remain constant over the whole growth period to simplify calculations. This allows to run the model with only two input variables: the isotopic composition ^13C of the drip water and a temperature information at any point of time during the growth period of the stalagmite (e.g. the recent cave temperature). All other parameters are determined by the model. The CSM (Combined Stalagmite Model, Mühlinghaus et al. 2008a) was applied to three stalagmites from the Marcelo Arévalo cave in Southern Patagonia, Chile (Schimpf 2005, Kilian et al. 2006, Schimpf et al. in prep). These stalagmites grew in a small cave next to each other during the last 4500 years. However, their isotopic profiles along the growth axis show different kinetic influences. Despite these conditions, the temperature
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ming-Cheng Lo
2008-01-01
Full Text Available This study develops an improved inventory model to help the enterprises to advance their profit increasing and cost reduction in a single vendor single-buyer environment with general demand curve, adjustable production rate, and imperfect reworking process under permissible delay in payments. For advancing practical use in a real world, we are concerned with the following strategy determining, which includes the buyer's optimal selling price, order quantity, and the number of shipments per production run from the vendor to the buyer. An algorithm and numerical analysis are used to illustrate the solution procedure.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wueneke, C.D.; Schultz, H.
1975-01-01
The most important routines of a numerical code based on the particle-in-cell-method for calculating the transport and the turbulent dispersion of inert and radio-active pollutants in the atmosphere have been programmed and have been tested successfully on the CDC computer CYBER 73/76 of the Regional Computer Centre for Niedersachsen in Hanover. Compared to the Gaussian plume model such a numerical code based on the particle-in-cell-method offers several advantages for the computation of the diffusion under varying conditions in large cultivated regions. (orig.) [de
A model for the inverse 1-median problem on trees under uncertain costs
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kien Trung Nguyen
2016-01-01
Full Text Available We consider the problem of justifying vertex weights of a tree under uncertain costs so that a prespecified vertex become optimal and the total cost should be optimal in the uncertainty scenario. We propose a model which delivers the information about the optimal cost which respect to each confidence level \\(\\alpha \\in [0,1]\\. To obtain this goal, we first define an uncertain variable with respect to the minimum cost in each confidence level. If all costs are independently linear distributed, we present the inverse distribution function of this uncertain variable in \\(O(n^{2}\\log n\\ time, where \\(n\\ is the number of vertices in the tree.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Makkar Sandhya
2013-01-01
Full Text Available A significant issue of the supply chain problem is how to integrate different entities. Managing supply chain is a difficult task because of complex integrations, especially when the products are perishable in nature. Little attention has been paid on ordering specific perishable products jointly in uncertain environment with multiple sources and multiple destinations. In this article, we propose a supply chain coordination model through quantity and freight discount policy for perishable products under uncertain cost and demand information. A case is provided to validate the procedure.
A novel modeling approach for job shop scheduling problem under uncertainty
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Behnam Beheshti Pur
2013-11-01
Full Text Available When aiming on improving efficiency and reducing cost in manufacturing environments, production scheduling can play an important role. Although a common workshop is full of uncertainties, when using mathematical programs researchers have mainly focused on deterministic problems. After briefly reviewing and discussing popular modeling approaches in the field of stochastic programming, this paper proposes a new approach based on utility theory for a certain range of problems and under some practical assumptions. Expected utility programming, as the proposed approach, will be compared with the other well-known methods and its meaningfulness and usefulness will be illustrated via a numerical examples and a real case.
Pyrolysis of propane under vacuum carburizing conditions. An experimental and modeling study
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Khan, R.U.; Bajohr, S.; Buchholz, D.; Reimert, R. [Engler-Bunte-Institut, Bereich Gas, Erdoel und Kohle, Engler Bunte Ring 1, Universitaet Karlsruhe, 76131 Karlsruhe (Germany); Minh, H.D.; Norinaga, K.; Janardhanan, V.M.; Tischer, S.; Deutschmann, O. [Institute of Chemical Technology, University of Karlsruhe, 76128 Karlsruhe (Germany)
2008-03-15
Propane has been pyrolyzed in a flow reactor system at different temperatures ranging from 640 C to 1010 C and at 8 mbar of partial pressure which are typical vacuum carburizing conditions for steel. Nitrogen was used as a carrier gas. The products of pyrolysis were collected and analyzed by gas chromatography. The reactor was numerically simulated by 1D and 2D flow models coupled to a detailed gas phase reaction mechanism. The gas atmosphere composition has been predicted under the conditions of vacuum carburizing of steel. (author)
Time-constrained mother and expanding market: emerging model of under-nutrition in India
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
S. Chaturvedi
2016-07-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Persistent high levels of under-nutrition in India despite economic growth continue to challenge political leadership and policy makers at the highest level. The present inductive enquiry was conducted to map the perceptions of mothers and other key stakeholders, to identify emerging drivers of childhood under-nutrition. Methods We conducted a multi-centric qualitative investigation in six empowered action group states of India. The study sample included 509 in-depth interviews with mothers of undernourished and normal nourished children, policy makers, district level managers, implementer and facilitators. Sixty six focus group discussions and 72 non-formal interactions were conducted in two rounds with primary caretakers of undernourished children, Anganwadi Workers and Auxiliary Nurse Midwives. Results Based on the perceptions of the mothers and other key stakeholders, a model evolved inductively showing core themes as drivers of under-nutrition. The most forceful emerging themes were: multitasking, time constrained mother with dwindling family support; fragile food security or seasonal food paucity; child targeted market with wide availability and consumption of ready-to-eat market food items; rising non-food expenditure, in the context of rising food prices; inadequate and inappropriate feeding; delayed recognition of under-nutrition and delayed care seeking; and inadequate responsiveness of health care system and Integrated Child Development Services (ICDS. The study emphasized that the persistence of child malnutrition in India is also tied closely to the high workload and consequent time constraint of mothers who are increasingly pursuing income generating activities and enrolled in paid labour force, without robust institutional support for childcare. Conclusion The emerging framework needs to be further tested through mixed and multiple method research approaches to quantify the contribution of time limitation of
Chilibroste, P.; Dijkstra, J.; Robinson, P.H.; Tamminga, S.
2008-01-01
A simulation rumen model has been developed to function under non-steady state conditions in order to allow prediction of nutrient availability in dairy cows managed under discontinuous feeding systems. The model simulates availability of glycogenic, aminogenic and lipogenic nutrients to lactating
An innovative wheel–rail contact model for railway vehicles under degraded adhesion conditions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Meli, E.; Ridolfi, A.
2015-01-01
The accurate modelling of the wheel–rail contact plays a fundamental role in the railway field since the contact forces heavily affect the vehicle dynamics, the wear of the contact surfaces and the vehicle safety. Concerning the wheel–rail contact, an important open problem is represented by the degraded adhesion. A realistic adhesion model is quite difficult to obtain because of the complex and highly non-linear behaviour of the adhesion coefficient and the presence of external unknown contaminants (the third body); this is especially true when degraded adhesion and large sliding between the wheel and rail contact surfaces occur.In this work the authors present an adhesion model particularly developed to describe degraded adhesion conditions. The new approach will have to be suitable to be employed within the wheel–rail contact models typical of the multibody applications. In other words, the contact model, comprising the new adhesion model, will have to guarantee a good accuracy and, at the same time, a high numerical efficiency to be implemented directly online inside the general multibody model of the vehicles (e.g. in Matlab-Simulink or Simpack environments) ( www.mathworks.com http://www.mathworks.com , 2012; www.simpack.com http://www.simpack.com , 2012).The model analysed in the paper is based on some of the main phenomena characterising the degraded adhesion, such as large sliding at the contact interface, high energy dissipation, the consequent cleaning effect on the contact surfaces and the final adhesion recovery due to the removal of external unknown contaminants.The adhesion model has been validated because of the experimental data provided by Trenitalia S.p.A. coming from on-track tests performed in Velim (Czech Republic). The tests have been carried out on a straight railway track under degraded adhesion conditions with the railway vehicle UIC-Z1 equipped with a fully-working Wheel Slide Protection (WSP) system.The validation highlighted the
An innovative wheel–rail contact model for railway vehicles under degraded adhesion conditions
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Meli, E., E-mail: enrico.meli@unifi.it; Ridolfi, A., E-mail: a.ridolfi@unifi.it [University of Florence, Department of Industrial Engineering (Italy)
2015-03-15
The accurate modelling of the wheel–rail contact plays a fundamental role in the railway field since the contact forces heavily affect the vehicle dynamics, the wear of the contact surfaces and the vehicle safety. Concerning the wheel–rail contact, an important open problem is represented by the degraded adhesion. A realistic adhesion model is quite difficult to obtain because of the complex and highly non-linear behaviour of the adhesion coefficient and the presence of external unknown contaminants (the third body); this is especially true when degraded adhesion and large sliding between the wheel and rail contact surfaces occur.In this work the authors present an adhesion model particularly developed to describe degraded adhesion conditions. The new approach will have to be suitable to be employed within the wheel–rail contact models typical of the multibody applications. In other words, the contact model, comprising the new adhesion model, will have to guarantee a good accuracy and, at the same time, a high numerical efficiency to be implemented directly online inside the general multibody model of the vehicles (e.g. in Matlab-Simulink or Simpack environments) ( www.mathworks.com http://www.mathworks.com , 2012; www.simpack.com http://www.simpack.com , 2012).The model analysed in the paper is based on some of the main phenomena characterising the degraded adhesion, such as large sliding at the contact interface, high energy dissipation, the consequent cleaning effect on the contact surfaces and the final adhesion recovery due to the removal of external unknown contaminants.The adhesion model has been validated because of the experimental data provided by Trenitalia S.p.A. coming from on-track tests performed in Velim (Czech Republic). The tests have been carried out on a straight railway track under degraded adhesion conditions with the railway vehicle UIC-Z1 equipped with a fully-working Wheel Slide Protection (WSP) system.The validation highlighted the
Skataric, Maja; Bose, Sandip; Zeroug, Smaine; Tilke, Peter
2017-02-01
It is not uncommon in the field of non-destructive evaluation that multiple measurements encompassing a variety of modalities are available for analysis and interpretation for determining the underlying states of nature of the materials or parts being tested. Despite and sometimes due to the richness of data, significant challenges arise in the interpretation manifested as ambiguities and inconsistencies due to various uncertain factors in the physical properties (inputs), environment, measurement device properties, human errors, and the measurement data (outputs). Most of these uncertainties cannot be described by any rigorous mathematical means, and modeling of all possibilities is usually infeasible for many real time applications. In this work, we will discuss an approach based on Hierarchical Bayesian Graphical Models (HBGM) for the improved interpretation of complex (multi-dimensional) problems with parametric uncertainties that lack usable physical models. In this setting, the input space of the physical properties is specified through prior distributions based on domain knowledge and expertise, which are represented as Gaussian mixtures to model the various possible scenarios of interest for non-destructive testing applications. Forward models are then used offline to generate the expected distribution of the proposed measurements which are used to train a hierarchical Bayesian network. In Bayesian analysis, all model parameters are treated as random variables, and inference of the parameters is made on the basis of posterior distribution given the observed data. Learned parameters of the posterior distribution obtained after the training can therefore be used to build an efficient classifier for differentiating new observed data in real time on the basis of pre-trained models. We will illustrate the implementation of the HBGM approach to ultrasonic measurements used for cement evaluation of cased wells in the oil industry.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Timothy Andrew Joyner
Full Text Available Anthrax, caused by the bacterium Bacillus anthracis, is a zoonotic disease that persists throughout much of the world in livestock, wildlife, and secondarily infects humans. This is true across much of Central Asia, and particularly the Steppe region, including Kazakhstan. This study employed the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP to model the current and future geographic distribution of Bacillus anthracis in Kazakhstan based on the A2 and B2 IPCC SRES climate change scenarios using a 5-variable data set at 55 km(2 and 8 km(2 and a 6-variable BioClim data set at 8 km(2. Future models suggest large areas predicted under current conditions may be reduced by 2050 with the A2 model predicting approximately 14-16% loss across the three spatial resolutions. There was greater variability in the B2 models across scenarios predicting approximately 15% loss at 55 km(2, approximately 34% loss at 8 km(2, and approximately 30% loss with the BioClim variables. Only very small areas of habitat expansion into new areas were predicted by either A2 or B2 in any models. Greater areas of habitat loss are predicted in the southern regions of Kazakhstan by A2 and B2 models, while moderate habitat loss is also predicted in the northern regions by either B2 model at 8 km(2. Anthrax disease control relies mainly on livestock vaccination and proper carcass disposal, both of which require adequate surveillance. In many situations, including that of Kazakhstan, vaccine resources are limited, and understanding the geographic distribution of the organism, in tandem with current data on livestock population dynamics, can aid in properly allocating doses. While speculative, contemplating future changes in livestock distributions and B. anthracis spore promoting environments can be useful for establishing future surveillance priorities. This study may also have broader applications to global public health surveillance relating to other diseases in addition to B
Peng, Chi; Wang, Meie; Chen, Weiping
2016-09-01
A pollutant accumulation model (PAM) based on the mass balance theory was developed to simulate long-term changes of heavy metal concentrations in soil. When combined with Monte Carlo simulation, the model can predict the probability distributions of heavy metals in a soil-water-plant system with fluctuating environmental parameters and inputs from multiple pathways. The model was used for evaluating different remediation measures to deal with Cd contamination of paddy soils in Youxian county (Hunan province), China, under five scenarios, namely the default scenario (A), not returning paddy straw to the soil (B), reducing the deposition of Cd (C), liming (D), and integrating several remediation measures (E). The model predicted that the Cd contents of soil can lowered significantly by (B) and those of the plants by (D). However, in the long run, (D) will increase soil Cd. The concentrations of Cd in both soils and rice grains can be effectively reduced by (E), although it will take decades of effort. The history of Cd pollution and the major causes of Cd accumulation in soil were studied by means of sensitivity analysis and retrospective simulation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Modelling of plate-out under gas-cooled reactor (GCR) accident conditions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Taig, A.R.
1981-01-01
The importance of plate-out in mitigating consequences of gas-cooled reactor accidents, and its place in assessing these consequences, are discussed. The data requirements of a plate-out modelling program are discussed, and a brief description is given of parallel work programs on thermal/hydraulic reactor behaviour and fuel modelling, both of which will provide inputs to the plate-out program under development. The representation of a GCR system used in SRD studies is presented, and the equations governing iodine adsorption, desorption and transport round the circuit are derived. The status of SRD's plate-out program is described, and the type of sensitivity studies to be undertaken with the partially-developed computer program in order to identify the most useful lines for future research is discussed. (author)
Vector model for polarized second-harmonic generation microscopy under high numerical aperture
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wang, Xiang-Hui; Chang, Sheng-Jiang; Lin, Lie; Wang, Lin-Rui; Huo, Bing-Zhong; Hao, Shu-Jian
2010-01-01
Based on the vector diffraction theory and the generalized Jones matrix formalism, a vector model for polarized second-harmonic generation (SHG) microscopy is developed, which includes the roles of the axial component P z , the weight factor and the cross-effect between the lateral components. The numerical results show that as the relative magnitude of P z increases, the polarization response of the second-harmonic signal will vary from linear polarization to elliptical polarization and the polarization orientation of the second-harmonic signal is different from that under the paraxial approximation. In addition, it is interesting that the polarization response of the detected second-harmonic signal can change with the value of the collimator lens NA. Therefore, it is more advantageous to adopt the vector model to investigate the property of polarized SHG microscopy for a variety of cases
Modelling the autoxidation of myoglobin in fresh meat under modified atmosphere packing conditions
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Tofteskov, Jon; Hansen, Jesper Schmidt; Bailey, Nicholas
2017-01-01
pigment concentration data is obtained, but only by substantially increasing the value of the oxygen consumption rate. Application of the model to meat stored at 5 °C shows that the metmyoglobin layer forms under the surface over a time scale of 24 h; The metmyoglobin layer forms deeper inside the meat......Modified atmosphere packing (MAP) is a technique to increase the shelf life of fresh meat. Continuing development of MAP requires better understanding of the physical and chemical processes taking place, in particular the diffusion of oxygen and its reaction with myoglobin. We model these processes...... proportional to the logarithm of the headspace oxygen partial pressure, thus improving the colour appearance of the meat....
Experimental modelling of core debris dispersion from the vault under a PWR pressure vessel. Pt. 2
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rose, P.W.
1987-12-01
In previous experiments, done on a 1/25 scale model in Perspex of the vault under a PWR pressure vessel, the instrument tubes support structure built into the vault was not included. It consists of a number of grids made up of fairly massive steel girders. These have now been added to the model and experiments performed using water to simulate molten core debris assumed to have fallen on to the vault floor and high-pressure air to simulate the discharge of steam or gas from the assumed breach at the bottom of the pressure vessel. The results show that the tubes support structure considerably reduces the carry-over of liquid via the vault access shafts. (author)
Recursive Subspace Identification of AUV Dynamic Model under General Noise Assumption
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zheping Yan
2014-01-01
Full Text Available A recursive subspace identification algorithm for autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs is proposed in this paper. Due to the advantages at handling nonlinearities and couplings, the AUV model investigated here is for the first time constructed as a Hammerstein model with nonlinear feedback in the linear part. To better take the environment and sensor noises into consideration, the identification problem is concerned as an errors-in-variables (EIV one which means that the identification procedure is under general noise assumption. In order to make the algorithm recursively, propagator method (PM based subspace approach is extended into EIV framework to form the recursive identification method called PM-EIV algorithm. With several identification experiments carried out by the AUV simulation platform, the proposed algorithm demonstrates its effectiveness and feasibility.
Option pricing under stochastic volatility: the exponential Ornstein–Uhlenbeck model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Perelló, Josep; Masoliver, Jaume; Sircar, Ronnie
2008-01-01
We study the pricing problem for a European call option when the volatility of the underlying asset is random and follows the exponential Ornstein–Uhlenbeck model. The random diffusion model proposed is a two-dimensional market process that takes a log-Brownian motion to describe price dynamics and an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck subordinated process describing the randomness of the log-volatility. We derive an approximate option price that is valid when (i) the fluctuations of the volatility are larger than its normal level, (ii) the volatility presents a slow driving force, toward its normal level and, finally, (iii) the market price of risk is a linear function of the log-volatility. We study the resulting European call price and its implied volatility for a range of parameters consistent with daily Dow Jones index data
Study on validation method for femur finite element model under multiple loading conditions
Guan, Fengjiao; Zhang, Guanjun; Liu, Jie; Wang, Shujing; Luo, Xu
2018-03-01
Acquisition of accurate and reliable constitutive parameters related to bio-tissue materials was beneficial to improve biological fidelity of a Finite Element (FE) model and predict impact damages more effectively. In this paper, a femur FE model was established under multiple loading conditions with diverse impact positions. Then, based on sequential response surface method and genetic algorithms, the material parameters identification was transformed to a multi-response optimization problem. Finally, the simulation results successfully coincided with force-displacement curves obtained by numerous experiments. Thus, computational accuracy and efficiency of the entire inverse calculation process were enhanced. This method was able to effectively reduce the computation time in the inverse process of material parameters. Meanwhile, the material parameters obtained by the proposed method achieved higher accuracy.
Cobben, Marleen M P; van Noordwijk, Arie J
2017-10-01
Migration is a widespread phenomenon across the animal kingdom as a response to seasonality in environmental conditions. Partially migratory populations are populations that consist of both migratory and residential individuals. Such populations are very common, yet their stability has long been debated. The inheritance of migratory activity is currently best described by the threshold model of quantitative genetics. The inclusion of such a genetic threshold model for migratory behavior leads to a stable zone in time and space of partially migratory populations under a wide range of demographic parameter values, when assuming stable environmental conditions and unlimited genetic diversity. Migratory species are expected to be particularly sensitive to global warming, as arrival at the breeding grounds might be increasingly mistimed as a result of the uncoupling of long-used cues and actual environmental conditions, with decreasing reproduction as a consequence. Here, we investigate the consequences for migratory behavior and the stability of partially migratory populations under five climate change scenarios and the assumption of a genetic threshold value for migratory behavior in an individual-based model. The results show a spatially and temporally stable zone of partially migratory populations after different lengths of time in all scenarios. In the scenarios in which the species expands its range from a particular set of starting populations, the genetic diversity and location at initialization determine the species' colonization speed across the zone of partial migration and therefore across the entire landscape. Abruptly changing environmental conditions after model initialization never caused a qualitative change in phenotype distributions, or complete extinction. This suggests that climate change-induced shifts in species' ranges as well as changes in survival probabilities and reproductive success can be met with flexibility in migratory behavior at the
Network interactions underlying mirror feedback in stroke: A dynamic causal modeling study
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Soha Saleh
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Mirror visual feedback (MVF is potentially a powerful tool to facilitate recovery of disordered movement and stimulate activation of under-active brain areas due to stroke. The neural mechanisms underlying MVF have therefore been a focus of recent inquiry. Although it is known that sensorimotor areas can be activated via mirror feedback, the network interactions driving this effect remain unknown. The aim of the current study was to fill this gap by using dynamic causal modeling to test the interactions between regions in the frontal and parietal lobes that may be important for modulating the activation of the ipsilesional motor cortex during mirror visual feedback of unaffected hand movement in stroke patients. Our intent was to distinguish between two theoretical neural mechanisms that might mediate ipsilateral activation in response to mirror-feedback: transfer of information between bilateral motor cortices versus recruitment of regions comprising an action observation network which in turn modulate the motor cortex. In an event-related fMRI design, fourteen chronic stroke subjects performed goal-directed finger flexion movements with their unaffected hand while observing real-time visual feedback of the corresponding (veridical or opposite (mirror hand in virtual reality. Among 30 plausible network models that were tested, the winning model revealed significant mirror feedback-based modulation of the ipsilesional motor cortex arising from the contralesional parietal cortex, in a region along the rostral extent of the intraparietal sulcus. No winning model was identified for the veridical feedback condition. We discuss our findings in the context of supporting the latter hypothesis, that mirror feedback-based activation of motor cortex may be attributed to engagement of a contralateral (contralesional action observation network. These findings may have important implications for identifying putative cortical areas, which may be targeted with
Preziosi-Ribero, A.; Fox, A.; Packman, A. I.; Escobar-Vargas, J.; Donado-Garzon, L. D.; Li, A.; Arnon, S.
2017-12-01
Exchange of mass, momentum and energy between surface water and groundwater is a driving factor for the biology, ecology and chemistry of rivers and water bodies in general. Nonetheless, this exchange is dominated by different factors like topography, bed morphology, and large-scale hydraulic gradient. In the particular case of fine sediments like clay, conservative tracer modeling is impossible because they are trapped in river beds for long periods, thus the normal advection dispersion approach leads to errors and results do not agree with reality. This study proposes a numerical particle tracking model that represents the behavior of kaolinite in a sand flume, and how its deposition varies according to different flow conditions, namely losing and gaining flow. Since fine particles do not behave like solutes, kaolinite dynamics are represented using settling velocity and a filtration coefficient allowing the particles to be trapped in the bed. This approach allows us to use measurable parameters directly related with the fine particle features as size and shape, and hydraulic parameters. Results are then compared with experimental results from lab experiments obtained in a recirculating flume, in order to assess the impact of losing and gaining conditions on sediment transport and deposition. Furthermore, our model is able to identify the zones where kaolinite deposition concentrates over the flume due to the bed geometry, and later relate these results with clogging of the bed and hence changes in the bed's hydraulic conductivity. Our results suggest that kaolinite deposition is higher under losing conditions since the vertical velocity of the flow is added to the deposition velocity of the particles modeled. Moreover, the zones where kaolinite concentrates varies under different flow conditions due to the difference in pressure and velocity in the river bed.
A quantitative quasispecies theory-based model of virus escape mutation under immune selection.
Woo, Hyung-June; Reifman, Jaques
2012-08-07
Viral infections involve a complex interplay of the immune response and escape mutation of the virus quasispecies inside a single host. Although fundamental aspects of such a balance of mutation and selection pressure have been established by the quasispecies theory decades ago, its implications have largely remained qualitative. Here, we present a quantitative approach to model the virus evolution under cytotoxic T-lymphocyte immune response. The virus quasispecies dynamics are explicitly represented by mutations in the combined sequence space of a set of epitopes within the viral genome. We stochastically simulated the growth of a viral population originating from a single wild-type founder virus and its recognition and clearance by the immune response, as well as the expansion of its genetic diversity. Applied to the immune escape of a simian immunodeficiency virus epitope, model predictions were quantitatively comparable to the experimental data. Within the model parameter space, we found two qualitatively different regimes of infectious disease pathogenesis, each representing alternative fates of the immune response: It can clear the infection in finite time or eventually be overwhelmed by viral growth and escape mutation. The latter regime exhibits the characteristic disease progression pattern of human immunodeficiency virus, while the former is bounded by maximum mutation rates that can be suppressed by the immune response. Our results demonstrate that, by explicitly representing epitope mutations and thus providing a genotype-phenotype map, the quasispecies theory can form the basis of a detailed sequence-specific model of real-world viral pathogens evolving under immune selection.
Modelling of RPV lower head under core melt severe accident condition using OpenFOAM
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Madokoro, Hiroshi; Kretzschmar, Frank; Miassoedov, Alexei
2017-01-01
Although six years have been passed since the tragic severe accident at Fukushima Daiichi, still large uncertainties exist in modeling of core degradation and reactor pressure vessel (RPV) failure. It is extremely important to obtain a better understanding of complex phenomena in the lower head in order to improve accident management measures. The possible failure mode of reactor pressure vessel and its failure time are especially a matter of importance. Thermal behavior of the molten pool can be simulated by the Phase-change Effective Convectivity Model (PECM), which is a distributed-parameter model developed in the Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), Sweden. The model calculates convective currents not using a pure CFD approach but based on so called “characteristic velocities” that are determined by empirical correlations depending on the geometry and physical properties of the molten pool. At the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), the PECM has been implemented in the open-source CFD software OpenFOAM in order to receive detailed predictions of a core melt behavior in the RPV lower head under severe accident conditions. An advantage of using OpenFOAM is that it is very flexible to add and modify models and physical properties. In the current work, the solver is extended to couple PECM with a structure analysis model of the vessel wall. The model considers thermal expansion, plasticity, creep and damage. The model and physical properties are based on those implemented in ANSYS. Although the previous implementation had restriction that the amount of and geometry of the melt cannot be changed, our coupled model allows flexibility of the melt amount and geometry. The extended solver was used to simulate the LIVE-L1 and -L7V experiments and has demonstrated good prediction of the temperature distribution in the molten pool and heat flux distribution through the vessel wall. Regarding the vessel failure the model was applied to one of the FOREVER tests
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
C.-J. Wang
2017-12-01
Full Text Available Global climate change may enable invasive plant species (IPS to invade protected areas (PAs, but plant invasion on a global scale has not yet been explicitly addressed. Here, we mapped the potential invasion pathways for IPS in PAs across the globe and explored potential factors determining the pathways of plant invasion under climate change. We used species distribution modelling to estimate the suitable habitats of 386 IPS and applied a corridor analysis to compute the potential pathways of IPS in PAs under climate change. Subsequently, we analysed the potential factors affecting the pathways in PAs. According to our results, the main potential pathways of IPS in PAs are in Europe, eastern Australia, New Zealand, southern Africa, and eastern regions of South America and are strongly influenced by changes in temperature and precipitation. Protected areas can play an important role in preventing and controlling the spread of IPS under climate change. This is due to the fact that measures are taken to monitor climate change in detail, to provide effective management near or inside PAs, and to control the introduction of IPS with a high capacity for natural dispersal. A review of conservation policies in PAs is urgently needed.
Kinetic theory approach to modeling of cellular repair mechanisms under genome stress.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jinpeng Qi
Full Text Available Under acute perturbations from outer environment, a normal cell can trigger cellular self-defense mechanism in response to genome stress. To investigate the kinetics of cellular self-repair process at single cell level further, a model of DNA damage generating and repair is proposed under acute Ion Radiation (IR by using mathematical framework of kinetic theory of active particles (KTAP. Firstly, we focus on illustrating the profile of Cellular Repair System (CRS instituted by two sub-populations, each of which is made up of the active particles with different discrete states. Then, we implement the mathematical framework of cellular self-repair mechanism, and illustrate the dynamic processes of Double Strand Breaks (DSBs and Repair Protein (RP generating, DSB-protein complexes (DSBCs synthesizing, and toxins accumulating. Finally, we roughly analyze the capability of cellular self-repair mechanism, cellular activity of transferring DNA damage, and genome stability, especially the different fates of a certain cell before and after the time thresholds of IR perturbations that a cell can tolerate maximally under different IR perturbation circumstances.
Kinetic theory approach to modeling of cellular repair mechanisms under genome stress.
Qi, Jinpeng; Ding, Yongsheng; Zhu, Ying; Wu, Yizhi
2011-01-01
Under acute perturbations from outer environment, a normal cell can trigger cellular self-defense mechanism in response to genome stress. To investigate the kinetics of cellular self-repair process at single cell level further, a model of DNA damage generating and repair is proposed under acute Ion Radiation (IR) by using mathematical framework of kinetic theory of active particles (KTAP). Firstly, we focus on illustrating the profile of Cellular Repair System (CRS) instituted by two sub-populations, each of which is made up of the active particles with different discrete states. Then, we implement the mathematical framework of cellular self-repair mechanism, and illustrate the dynamic processes of Double Strand Breaks (DSBs) and Repair Protein (RP) generating, DSB-protein complexes (DSBCs) synthesizing, and toxins accumulating. Finally, we roughly analyze the capability of cellular self-repair mechanism, cellular activity of transferring DNA damage, and genome stability, especially the different fates of a certain cell before and after the time thresholds of IR perturbations that a cell can tolerate maximally under different IR perturbation circumstances.
Sebti, Aicha; Souahi, Fatiha; Mohellebi, Faroudja; Igoud, Sadek
2017-07-01
This research focuses on the application of an artificial neural network (ANN) to predict the removal efficiency of tartrazine from simulated wastewater using a photocatalytic process under solar illumination. A program is developed in Matlab software to optimize the neural network architecture and select the suitable combination of training algorithm, activation function and hidden neurons number. The experimental results of a batch reactor operated under different conditions of pH, TiO 2 concentration, initial organic pollutant concentration and solar radiation intensity are used to train, validate and test the networks. While negligible mineralization is demonstrated, the experimental results show that under sunlight irradiation, 85% of tartrazine is removed after 300 min using only 0.3 g/L of TiO 2 powder. Therefore, irradiation time is prolonged and almost 66% of total organic carbon is reduced after 15 hours. ANN 5-8-1 with Bayesian regulation back-propagation algorithm and hyperbolic tangent sigmoid transfer function is found to be able to predict the response with high accuracy. In addition, the connection weights approach is used to assess the importance contribution of each input variable on the ANN model response. Among the five experimental parameters, the irradiation time has the greatest effect on the removal efficiency of tartrazine.
Multi-Model Projections of River Flood Risk in Europe under Global Warming
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lorenzo Alfieri
2018-01-01
Full Text Available Knowledge on the costs of natural disasters under climate change is key information for planning adaptation and mitigation strategies of future climate policies. Impact models for large scale flood risk assessment have made leaps forward in the past few years, thanks to the increased availability of high resolution climate projections and of information on local exposure and vulnerability to river floods. Yet, state-of-the-art flood impact models rely on a number of input data and techniques that can substantially influence their results. This work compares estimates of river flood risk in Europe from three recent case studies, assuming global warming scenarios of 1.5, 2, and 3 degrees Celsius from pre-industrial levels. The assessment is based on comparing ensemble projections of expected damage and population affected at country level. Differences and common points between the three cases are shown, to point out main sources of uncertainty, strengths, and limitations. In addition, the multi-model comparison helps identify regions with the largest agreement on specific changes in flood risk. Results show that global warming is linked to substantial increase in flood risk over most countries in Central and Western Europe at all warming levels. In Eastern Europe, the average change in flood risk is smaller and the multi-model agreement is poorer.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Montazar, A.; Snyder, R. L.
2012-11-01
Water resources sustainability has a key role in the existence and durability of irrigated farming systems and strongly depends on the crop planning. The decision process is complex due to a number of constraints and the desire to secure crop diversification and the involvement of affected various parameters. The objective of the present study was to develop a comprehensive multi-criteria model for selecting adequate cropping pattern in an irrigation district under water scarcity condition. Eleven and nine attribute decisions were considered in ranking the type of crop and determination of the percentage of crop cultivation area as an optimal irrigated crop planning system, respectively. The results indicate that the proposed multi-attribute preference approach can synthesize various sets of criteria in the preference elicitation of the crop type and cultivated area. The predictive validity analysis shows that the preferences acquired by the proposed model are evidently in reasonable accordance with those of the conjunctive water use model. Consequently, the model may be used to aggregate preferences in order to obtain a group decision, improve understanding of the choice problem, accommodate multiple objectives and increase transparency and credibility in decision making by actively involving relevant criteria in the crop planning. (Author) 27 refs.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kapuria, S; Yaqoob Yasin, M
2013-01-01
In this work, we present an electromechanically coupled efficient layerwise finite element model for the static response of piezoelectric laminated composite and sandwich plates, considering the nonlinear behavior of piezoelectric materials under strong electric field. The nonlinear model is developed consistently using a variational principle, considering a rotationally invariant second order nonlinear constitutive relationship, and full electromechanical coupling. In the piezoelectric layer, the electric potential is approximated to have a quadratic variation across the thickness, as observed from exact three dimensional solutions, and the equipotential condition of electroded piezoelectric surfaces is modeled using the novel concept of an electric node. The results predicted by the nonlinear model compare very well with the experimental data available in the literature. The effect of the piezoelectric nonlinearity on the static response and deflection/stress control is studied for piezoelectric bimorph as well as hybrid laminated plates with isotropic, angle-ply composite and sandwich substrates. For high electric fields, the difference between the nonlinear and linear predictions is large, and cannot be neglected. The error in the prediction of the smeared counterpart of the present theory with the same number of primary displacement unknowns is also examined. (paper)
A mixture model for robust point matching under multi-layer motion.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jiayi Ma
Full Text Available This paper proposes an efficient mixture model for establishing robust point correspondences between two sets of points under multi-layer motion. Our algorithm starts by creating a set of putative correspondences which can contain a number of false correspondences, or outliers, in addition to the true correspondences (inliers. Next we solve for correspondence by interpolating a set of spatial transformations on the putative correspondence set based on a mixture model, which involves estimating a consensus of inlier points whose matching follows a non-parametric geometrical constraint. We formulate this as a maximum a posteriori (MAP estimation of a Bayesian model with hidden/latent variables indicating whether matches in the putative set are outliers or inliers. We impose non-parametric geometrical constraints on the correspondence, as a prior distribution, in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS. MAP estimation is performed by the EM algorithm which by also estimating the variance of the prior model (initialized to a large value is able to obtain good estimates very quickly (e.g., avoiding many of the local minima inherent in this formulation. We further provide a fast implementation based on sparse approximation which can achieve a significant speed-up without much performance degradation. We illustrate the proposed method on 2D and 3D real images for sparse feature correspondence, as well as a public available dataset for shape matching. The quantitative results demonstrate that our method is robust to non-rigid deformation and multi-layer/large discontinuous motion.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Evans, Phillip G.; Dapino, Marcelo J.
2013-01-01
Measurements are performed to characterize the hysteresis in magnetomechanical coupling of iron–gallium (Galfenol) alloys. Magnetization and strain of production and research grade Galfenol are measured under applied stress at constant field, applied field at constant stress, and alternately applied field and stress. A high degree of reversibility in the magnetomechanical coupling is demonstrated by comparing a series of applied field at constant stress measurements with a single applied stress at constant field measurement. Accommodation is not evident and magnetic hysteresis for applied field and stress is shown to be coupled. A thermodynamic model is formulated for 3-D magnetization and strain. It employs a stress, field, and direction dependent hysteron that has an instantaneous loss mechanism, similar to Coulomb-friction or Preisach-type models. Stochastic homogenization is utilized to account for the smoothing effect that material inhomogeneities have on bulk processes. - Highlights: ► We conduct coupled experiments and develop nonlinear thermodynamic models for magnetostrictive iron–gallium (Galfenol) alloys. ► The measurements show unexpected kinematic reversibility in the magnetomechanical coupling. ► This is in contrast with the magnetomechanical coupling in steel which is both thermodynamically and kinematically irreversible. ► The model accurately describes the measurements and provides a framework for understanding hysteresis in ferromagnetic materials which exhibit kinematically reversible magnetomechanical coupling.
An Agent-Based Model of School Closing in Under-Vacccinated Communities During Measles Outbreaks.
Getz, Wayne M; Carlson, Colin; Dougherty, Eric; Porco Francis, Travis C; Salter, Richard
2016-04-01
The winter 2014-15 measles outbreak in the US represents a significant crisis in the emergence of a functionally extirpated pathogen. Conclusively linking this outbreak to decreases in the measles/mumps/rubella (MMR) vaccination rate (driven by anti-vaccine sentiment) is critical to motivating MMR vaccination. We used the NOVA modeling platform to build a stochastic, spatially-structured, individual-based SEIR model of outbreaks, under the assumption that R 0 ≈ 7 for measles. We show this implies that herd immunity requires vaccination coverage of greater than approximately 85%. We used a network structured version of our NOVA model that involved two communities, one at the relatively low coverage of 85% coverage and one at the higher coverage of 95%, both of which had 400-student schools embedded, as well as students occasionally visiting superspreading sites (e.g. high-density theme parks, cinemas, etc.). These two vaccination coverage levels are within the range of values occurring across California counties. Transmission rates at schools and superspreading sites were arbitrarily set to respectively 5 and 15 times background community rates. Simulations of our model demonstrate that a 'send unvaccinated students home' policy in low coverage counties is extremely effective at shutting down outbreaks of measles.